VORKING PAPER NO. 36
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
PAYETTE RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE 07 GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATEt November 23, 1962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by RLC Project Staff
Reviewed by ^ Cooperating Agencies
Approved by .,._._... General
U. S,.DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
-------
this working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended tor internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
-------
PAYSTT1 El
PRELBilHMY 1
AND ESTIMATE Qg CBOHgS, 1%®-2@1®
A. Introductory i
1. Purpose of This Analysis 1
2. Definition of the Area 1
3. Study Period 1
4. Limitations of This Analysis 1
B. Present Economic Base 1
1. Population 1
2. Industry 3
C. Esticae©
1.
C. Future Population IS
Prepared by: Bcoaomie §t«di@s 6r@tap
-------
PAYEKTE KLWS. MSI53
PRELIMIHARY 1CC»MIC SECONHAISSAHSg
A. Introductory
1. Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provida a prelimiaagy sseisMifc® ©£ eta©
economic potentials and antieipfi£@d geo^fe ©£ fefee 0mibj
-------
study area. The area's population demonstrated little numerical change over
the last two decades. Population increased 5 percent between 1940 and 1950,
while the State of Idaho experienced an over-all population growth of 12.1
percent. In the ten years 1950 to 1960, the study area's population rose
less than .4 percent, in contrast -to a 13.3 percent expansion in the state
as a whole. Table I indicates the course of population in the four-county
area.
TABLE I -'
Population Trends in The Payette River Basic
Area
Payette County
Gem County
Boise County
Valley County
Total Area
Idaho
The
traced to the pattern of declining rural population that characterises the
entire Snake River basin. With an above average concentration of rural
inhabitants, the four counties have, as a group9 dropped in population
relative to the state as a whole. (Witts p@pwis£i©n deaaities ©£ ,9
per square mile and 1.0 persoaa ®®% s^cag'e mil© EeepeeSiwly ae Efe© if§9
census, Boise and Valley e@wa£l<3e as® €c©3ag £fe£ ^©paiatien
Change
1940 - 1960
30.0%
-4. 4£
»2§.9%
-9.2%
5.41
27. IX
im ehe s£wdy at?©a m^y fe©
I/
in Idaho. — ) Such gr©^fe as £fe© tjegi©® feas e^§Ei®a<&£^i &S3 @@@©E'g>©J la
a/ U. S. Ceoeus of
I/ U. S. Census of
other hand, are among the D@?O desuoij; p@gmiat@4 areas9 «itih SO.7 aad 2,^04
persons per square mile. The eKafeo average was 8.1 persons per square mile
-------
C-3
Its towns, Fayette, New Plymouth, and Fruitland in Payette County, Emmett in
Gem County, Cascade and McCall in Valley County. With the exception of
Cascade, these towns have exhibited consistent, moderate population growth
sufficient to maintain the population level of the area, as indicated in
Table II.
a/
TABLE II "
Population Trends of Urban Places
Area Population Changes
1940 1950 1960 1940 - 1960
Payette: inhabitants 3,332 4,032 4,451 33.61
as % area total 13.1 15..1 16.6
Fruitland: inhabitants — 573 804
as % area total — 2.1 3.0
New Plymouth: inhabitants 804 942 940 16.91
as % area total 3.1 3.5 3.5
Emmett: inhabitants 3,203 3,067 3,769 17.6%
as % area total 12.6 11.5 14.1
Cascade: inhabitants 1,029 943 923 -10.31
as % area total 4.0 3.5 3.4
McCall: inhabitants 875 1,173 1,423 62.71
as % area total 3.4 4.3 5.3
Total urban 9,233 10,730 12,312 33.4%
as % area total 36.4 40.0 45.9
Rural 16,190 15,967 14,487 -11.7%
as % area total 63.6 60.0 54.1
2. Industry
The divergence in population densities between the two northern
counties, Boise and Valley, and the southern counties is carried through
to the economic activities of the two areas. The southern counties, Gea
and Payette, possess considerably more varied and developed industrial
bases, as suggested by Table III, which indicates the distribution of
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 195^* i960. The urban population of the
state at April, 1960 amounted to 47, St of total population.
-------
employment in the area at April, 1960.
TABLE III -'
Number of Persona Employed in Various Industry Groups. 1960
Industry Boise County
Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing :
lumber & wood products
fabricated metal
machinery
other durable goods
food & kindred pdts .
printing & publishing
other non-durable
Transportation, commun-
ication, utilities
Wholesale trade
Food... s tores
Eating & drinking places
Other retail
Finance , ins . , real est .
No
64
18
12
150
80
m
-
9
-
-
OB
9
=
5
27
15
5
Business & repair service 10
Personal service
Hospitals
Education
Other professional serv.
Public administration
15
•=•
25
-
27
<
*
11
3
K/ 2
k/25
_ *
c/13
-
-
1
-
-
-
1
-
4
2
-
1
2
«,
4
«,
4
&
.0
.1
.0
.8
.2
.5
t
.5
.8
.6
.5
.8
.7
.5
o3
.6
Gem
No.
908
27
12
140
721
9
-
4
123
8
-
102
75
78
85
209
59
94
169
53
162
SI
64
County
<
26'
4
20
3
2
2
2
2
6
1
2
4
1
' 4
1
1
I
•
•
•
•
•
•
-
•
•
•
•
•
*
«
•
•
•
•
•
6
O
•
•
3
8
3
0
8
2
1
6
2
9
2
2
4
0
7
7
9
5
7
4
8
Payette C£y
No.
1,209
0
5
317
74
3
16
20
733
28
12
268
171
108
160
371
95
88
197
50
152
133
132
*
26.3
0
.1
6.9
1.6
.1
.3
.4
15.9
.6
.2
5.8
3.7
2.3
3.5
8.0
2.0
1.9
4.2
.1.1
3.3
a 3
o / Census figures are in this
recurring circumstance Inflated
struction employment fluctuated b©6^©ea i sad €> p
-------
c-s
The principal economic support of Boise and Valley Counties is the
forest resources of Boise National Forest and Payette National Forest. As
indicated by Table III, employment in lumbering may occupy over half of the
labor force of the two counties during peak periods. The lumbering industry
of southern Idaho has grown significantly in the face of a slightly de-
clining state-wide level of lumbering employment and production. In 1950
southern Idaho's lumbering employment amounted to 2,321, 19.2 percent of
the state total; by 1960 it had risen to 2,828, 23.9 percent of total
lumbering employment, a rise of about 21.8 percent, in the face of a
two percent decline in total employment in Idaho forest products industries.—'
In 1956, the year of record employment and production in the Idaho lumber
industry, Boise County's nine.mills accounted for 13.2 percent of total
southern Idaho production; Valley County, together with Idaho County, pro-
vided another 24 percent of southern Idaho sawmill output in ten mills.
Logging, largely on public lands, has been carried on for some years at a
sustained yield level, indicating near optimum utilization of the resource,
with little opportunity for expansion of basic lumber output.
Agriculture is the second source of employment and income in Boise
and Valley Counties; and the declining population of these areas may be
traced largely to reduced employment requirements resulting from more
efficient agricultural production. Farm consolidation and increased atten-
tion to grazing has been followed by a decline in agricultural employment
from 1950 to 1960. In Boise County agricultural employment dropped frosa
I/ Idaho Employment Security Agency
-------
158 to 64, in Valley County from 253 to 128. The process of taking marginal
land out of production, increasing use of improved pastureland, and consoli-
dation of farms in the interest of maximum utilization of machinery seems
likely to continue. Some of the tempo and breadth of the continuing change
in agriculture in the two counties is suggested in Table IV.
TABLE IV £/
Trends in Agriculture. 1954 - 1959
Boise County
1954 1959 Change
Number of farms 142 . 105 -38.4%
Land in farms (acres) 145,533 125,675 -13.6%
Land irrigated (acres) 4,142 4,324 4.4%
Cropland harvested (acres) 9,357 9,098 -2.7%
Value of crops sold 4114,042 $127,510 15.3%
Pasture (acres) 133,509 110,000 -17.?%
Value of livestock & $486,816 $690,670 41.8%
products sold
Valley County
Dumber of farms 206 162 -21.4%
Land in farms (acres) 114,968 124B072 . 7.9%
Land irrigated (acres) 32,313 26,821-' -17 %
Cropland harvested (acres) 28,744 24,142 -16.0%
Value of crops sold $2,351,951 $2,903,200 23.4%
Pasture (acres) 74,801 90,715 21.2%
Value of livestock & $3,469*641 $5,364,927 54.5%
products sold
a/ U. S. Census of Agriculture,
b_/ The drop in irrigated land Ira 1959 is BtmeA&t
.office of the Bureau of Reclamation i?ep©5rt@ that in 1958 lesssdl
lands near Cascade Reservoir, £h©f£ sights feav© fe
-------
C-7
Payette and Gem Counties have more diverse economic structures,
resting on a variegated farming pattern, a vigorous food processing industry,
and lumbering.
Agriculture is the main economic activity of the two counties, and
supports their food processing industries. The farm products of the area
include fruits--principally apples and plums—and vegetables--principally
corn--as well as the sugar beets, grain, hay and livestock found throughout
the Snake River basin. The average size of farms is well under that of
Boise and Valley Counties—469 acres in 1959 in Gem County, 200 acres In
Payette County, as opposed to 1,197 acres and 766 acres. Broader, use of
irrigation, prevalence of orchards and vegetable production, and superior
possibilities to supplement farm income with other employment has, apparently,
been responsible for keeping the pace of farm consolidation under that of
Boise and Valley Counties. Where farm employment in the latter two counties
was halved between 1950 and 1960, it declined 32 percent,from 1,775 to 1,209
in Payette County, and 28 percent, from 1,261 to 908, in Gem County. The
shifts in the agricultural economy of these southern counties have, in
general, been more moderate than those in the northern part of the study
area, as indicated in Table V.
-------
C-8
TABLE V -'
Trends in Agriculture. 1954 - 1959
rt e ci x
1954 1959 Change
Number of Farms 1,114 972 -12.5%
Land in farms (acres) 196,428 194,450 -1.0%
Land irrigated (acres) 56,403 57,091 1.2%
Cropland harvested (acres) 43,234 43,891 1.5%
Value of crops sold $3,458,144 $4,311,858 24.7%
Pasture (acres) 138,828 137,729 -.7%
Value of livestock &
products sold $3,967,644 $4,603,346 15.9%
Number of farms 916 774 -15.5%
Land in farms (acres) 352,250 363,029 3.1%
Land irrigated (acres) 43,447 47,295 8.8%
Cropland harvested (acres) 37,073 40,675 9.7%
Value of crops sold $2,685,643 $2,660,406 -.9%
Pasture (acres) 305,552 309,853 1.4%
Value of livestock & •
products sold $3,593,308 $5,240,357 45.8%
Food processing stands second to agriculture as a source of employ-
ment in Gem and Payette Counties, and has grown considerably in past year*,
even though the region is not located to share in the proliferation of potato-
processing plants that has been a major source of industrial expansion in
southern Idaho. Processing plants include Idaho Canning Company (canned
potatoes) and Payette Vinegar Company in Payette, Fruitland Canning Company
(canned fruits), and Gem Canning Company (canned fruits and vegetables) in
Emmett. Three meat-packing plants, one each .in Payette, Fruitland and Soaaefct
are operated largely to supply local markets, Feed mills and seed warehouse
are also supported by the region's agricultural output.
a/ U.S. Census of Agriculture, 13.§9
-------
Lumbering is the third major economic activity of the southern
counties. Payette contains southern Idaho's only plywood mill, a veneer
plant, and two woodworking companies. Emmett has two lumber mills, includ-
ing a huge unit of Boise Cascade Corporation that employe an average of 70®
persons, and a box factory.
Other manufacturing activities are on a smell scale and generally
oriented to agriculture. They include a soil conditioning service, a plant
fabricating concrete liners for irrigation ditches, a rendering plant, and
a leatherworking company.
Service industries in the four-county area reflect the trend of
population, and the broader national trend which has resulted in an iaesea©'
ing portion of total employment and ia&saie being divergsd to 8©s?vie@®.
Helping to some extent to support the development of services is the fact
that Fayette is located on the major east-west highway I® southern Idaho, .
and the recreational attractions ©f £he two national f©pests in £fe@
both of which unquesfeiemfelf psmzMe s@@a teasiefc ®ssp©sidli6«sffG©»
The trend of economic developsssiae isa the ar@a is gssggag£©d
figures in Table VI, which s?saiaaris©s aaj©s ehsagas i
years„
-------
Industry
Boise and Valley Counties
Agriculture
Mfg: forest products
Wholesale & retail trade
Professional & other services
Employment
1950 1960
411 192
370 586 y
297 254
354 410
c-ia
TABLE VI SJ
Significant Shifts in Employment. 1950 - 1960
Change
-219 (-53.4%)
216 ( 58.4%)
- 43 (-14.5%)
56 ( 15.8%)
Total 1,432 1,442 10 (
Gem and Payette Counties
•1,357 (-39.2%)
279 ( 54.1%)
668 ( 355%)
146 ( 13.1%)
135 ( 9.5%)
Total 6,656 6,527 -29 ( -.4%)
C. Estimated Future Growth
1. Factors Influencing Future Growth
The affective forces shaping the future economic development of the
area should, to a very great ©xteatj, be the sasss ones that pressafiiy d©£(gr®itss
its economic base. Agriculture, exploitation of forest resources, and food
processing appear to be the main determinants in gauging the probable couarsa
of development for design purposes. Population growth and Baaaett's elosenes®
to the developing Boise-Nanpa-Galdwell usfeaa esaspiex aey £@gwi£ its
emergence of other manufaettssris&g, fesisS i£ BsmM &&sm i@gl@ai £© £©
-------
C-ll
Agriculture may be presumed to continue to be the chief economic support
of the area. Further development of pasturelands may be expected, in
connection with additional feeding of cattle, as population expansion along
the Pacific Coast increases demand for meats. The course of farm consoli-
dation may be expected to continue; but the effect on farm employment may
be less extreme than during the last decade. The increasing size of farms
implies a rise in farm hiring and cropping on shares; and experience in
other areas indicates that as the transition proceeds from a basically rural
economy to one in which agricultural and commercial/industrial pursuits are
balanced, part-time farmers, subsidizing their land-holdings with other in-
come, become prevalent. Irrigation, too, may be something of a support to
agricultural employment; but its value in this area may be presumed to be
considerably less than in other parts of the Snake basin, due to a relative
scarcity of new lands to bring under cultivation. Drawing from this combina-
tion of circumstances, it would appear logical to project a design in which
agricultural employment decreases 25 percent between 1960 and 1985 (as
compared to a loss of 41 percent between 1950 and I960), and remains stable
from 1985 to 2010 as the interaction between more expensive irrigation pro-
jects practical at later dates and a slowing of the rise in farm productivity
acts to stabilize agricultural employment.
The rapid rise of lumbering eroploymsat should slow somewhat in the
future. The fact that logging ia eeuthern Idaho is a£tt ©r a£»s9 8u»£aiffi»d
yield levels places a ceiling sn basic lumber output. However9 it is logical
to expect the development of wood processing industries, Fabricated wcod
products (moldings, pre-cut and £otft£@d construction components, furniture,
etc.) and chip-board seem likely to find markets as population increases,
-------
C-12
and as Washington and Oregon producers approach maximum output. Development
should be even throughout the study period, due to age composition of Idaho's
forest resources. The U. S. Forestry Service has estimated that soon after
1985 first-growth timber in the state will largely have been exhausted, and
cutting will largely take place on second-growth lands. Southern Idaho will
then have an advantage over the northern part of the state, and may be pre-
sumed to be able to further increase its portion of total Idaho lumbering
activity. The trend toward concentration of production in fever and larger
mills able to salvage chippable residues which are now largely shipped to
. J
the middle west, the timber reserves of the area, and growth of demand,
should be sufficient to produce in southwest Idaho a pulp mill of 300 to 500
tons per day capacity before 1985. The round-vood resources of the area
seem sufficient to support such a mill - Adaas, Valley, Washington,, Gem,
Canyon, Ada, Elmore, Boise, and Valley Counties produce roughly 70 percent
of southern Idaho's lumber - and waste disposal considerations restrict the
number of possible sites. The ?ay3£t@-lBiEe£t region is ©a© v@fy iikoi^
location, and for the purposes of this analysis it is assraasd that a 3@@-toa
per day mill will be located at Esmaett. This assumption is mairaly based ©a
the proximity of the wood resource. Further examination of this site, or
adjacent sites, will be required to determine if such sites are
with water pollution control considogafciosia c Swseh a ®£ll wmaM
to;employ 500 persons. In addiei©®5 a ©GES p®yce®6 iaegcsas© i® ®£5a@i?
ing employment —well uM©^ 6to i.@ parecias rate ®spa?i@®esd feesa 3JS0 £@ i
is projected through th® stndj
-------
Setting design rates for food-processing employment and output is a
somewhat more difficult task. The national trends to "convenience" foods
and shipping packaged foods from producing to consuming areas at the expense
of processing in marketing areas resulted in particularly high growth in
food-processing activity in Idaho during the 1950's. Maintenance of the
growth rate is unlikely, in view of the maturity of these trends. On the
other hand, there is no reason to assume a reversal, as opposed to a slowing
of the trend. In some fields, too, the area seems to offer considerable
expectation of above average growth. Thus cattle feeding and s@a£^packimg,=
given the rising level of Pacific Coast population, the fact that southern
Idaho is a forage-export area, and the fact that much of Idaho's cattle
population is exported for slaughter - appeals capable of eoosiderafele
expansion. Similarly, production of complete prepared meals, a field where
considerable growth is expected but which is not established in Idaho,
seams a potentially expansive cirevssstaacaj, due e® eh© va5?iQ£y of esops
produced in the region. Ie ^otald E©£ oeesa Mias-eaeoasbi©, efeoia „ to aoswaa©
for design purposes that eraploysiesie in £©@d psocQsslrag
at a rate roughly equel to the anticipated growth of taafcioisal popwlaeioa
about two percent -= uith p?©chjie£ivi£y §aias offset by
process fcods near She as-eao ia ^sfaidh
Service occupations) tesy bo, eupoeeoa f£e> fee
-------
in part to the decline in population and economic activity in Boise and Valley
Counties. On the assumption that these factors are fully reflected in the
employment situation of the area in 1960, one might expect the future course
of service employment to adhere more closely to eh© experience of other areas'.
It would seem logical to assume for design purposes a rate of growth of bout
two percent in service employment in the study area in future years.
approximates the historical eat© natioaaily and, being sojasvjhaE under
population growth rate provisionally assigned, (to the sr®&, it
considerable catching up in the ratio of service etaploymeae.
Table VII summarizes •ausaeirieally £h@ oistlia©«S pEfctssra ©
development by projecting an .etaployisienfc design for 1985 aed 2©i©o X<£
on: (1) ' a 25 percent drop in agricultural @raployment to 19S5, etable agt?i
cultural employment thereafter, (2) growth rates of one peressit Ita
is l^abering aad wood produces„ plwo ths addifei®a ©f a ptffllp ©ill.,
p®ffe@Bt in crop pE'ocessitag autfi ia asi?wie@ iafiiasttffiesi, (3)
1960 relationship of employments im
four major source® ©f ©saployssssie ia fife® aseas (4)
t© 1960 eat© of gs©^7£fe i® elhs eaeagotfioD 2©SQ©£s>y9
-------
C-15
Industry
TABLE VII
Design Pattern of Employment, 1950 - 2010
Employment
1950
3,885
152^
683
886
-•-
198
117-'
.529
1,407
920
538
265
1960
2,309
172
531—'
l,38l£/
_-
856
113
478)
.1,511)
895)
744)
270)
1985
1,730
250
680
1,800
500
1,400
150
6,450
2010
1,730
370
1,020
2,340
500
2,300
200
10,650
Agriculture
Forestry, fisheries, mining
Construction .
Mfg.: lumber & wood products
wood pulp
food & kindred prdts.
all other
Transportation, communication,
utilities
Wholesale & retail trade
financial & other services -•
Professional services
Public administration
Total
D. Future Population
' Based on the assumption that the region's employed labor force will con-
tinue to consist of 34 .to 35 percent ©f £h® area's population,, the employment
design outlined in the previous seefcloa suggests a 1985 population of sb©u£
35,000,rising to about 52,000 in 2010,
Although the relation of employed person® to total population used in this
projection seems low, in view of th© 42 percent average for th© United States
as a whole, it rests oa definite social aiad eeonoaQic clhasac£©!ri©£ics ©f eh®
area. Employmsntp due isi Iss'gG pag"3 e© SuiG ag5?i©al£Bis'ai eyelo airdl
a/ Eliminates 177 la
County for purposes of
b_/ Based on
rather thaa
i® psioaey
®aaia£Ge£w?£.ag to \7alisy
eo olteiaafee
-------
C-16
circumstances of logging, is highly seasonal; and this is not likely to
change. The number of women in the labor force is somewhat below average;
and though it may be expected to rise with rising service employment and
urbanization, the economic design projected does not suggest rapid change.
Idaho, as a state, has always had one of the nation's highest birth rates
and a history of out-migration. The result is a proportionately low percent-
age of its population in the potential labor force. The social circumstances
resulting in high birth rates do not seem subject to early modification,
particularly since the economic base, resting largely cm agriculture; should
continue to enforce adult out-migration.
Location of population in the future is difficult to gaage. The trend
to urbanization should continue in vi©sj ©f £fea still high ipg@p©rti©a of
rural inhabitants. The towns of Payetts and Emmett should be the principal
centers of population growth, but in what measure they share added populations
is subject to a variety of eos&oidesofeloES smets as plastft @sipfflnsioas i@e@£i©ffl
of new plants, and devele^Esat ©f a s
-------
C-17
1960
4,451
3,769
4,090
1985
8,550
8,350
6,700
2010
16,200
13,55®
11,800
after 1985, Payette may experience more pronounced population growth, and
is assigned 60 percent of the total expansion of the two cities.
TABLE VIII
Estimated Population
Payette
Emmett
Other urban
Total urban 12,310 . 23,600
Rural 14,489 10,870
Total population 26,799 34S47<9
To secure a distribution of projected population for each county, th@
following procedures were employed:
(1) The towas of P&jeee© sad! EEES<£(£,, as iMieaeed is> Safeia ^£12 B
assigned to their respective counties.
(2) The portion of 'other wrbsm' populations in Table ¥111 assi
each county was the same as tteafi eo^aey's 196© possiora of (5©£al '
population.
(3) The postioa ©£ 5?«Ka)L pisptalaeie© e-osigae-fi £© ea
oasae as thae c©iaa£y°® pssfei©® ©S IS)®©
The ?es«l£8 as© fgeseaSadl .te feiJ
-------
TABLE IX
Estimated Population Growth by Counties
C-]
Payette County
Payetts
Other Urban
Rural
Gem County
Emmet t
Rural
Valley County
Urban
Rural
1960
12,363
4,451
1,744
6,168
9,123
3,769
5,354
3,663
2,346
1,317
1985
15,770
8,550
2,870
4,350
12,270
8,350
3,920
4,920
3,830
1,090
Annual Rate
1960-1985
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
-
1.2%
3.2%
-
1.2%
1.6%.
-
2010
25,610
16,200
5,060
4,350
17,470
13,550
3,920
7,830
6,740
1,090
Annual Rate
1985-2010
2.2%
2.6%
2.2%
0
1.4%
1.9%
0
1.9%
2.3%
0
Boise County
(all rural)
Area Tofcal
1,646
1,510
26,799 34,47©
------- |