WORKING PAPER NO. 37
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
FOR WATER SUPPLY AND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT
PEND OREILLE BASIN (IDAHO-WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE; November 30, 1962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by KLC Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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this working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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PEND OREILLE BASIN (IDAHO-WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Purpose of This Analysis 1
B. Definition of the Area 1
C. Study Period 1
D. Limitations of This Analysis 1
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
A. Population 2
B. Industry 4
III. ESTIMATE FUTURE GROWTH 6
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth 6
B. Future Population 7
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution
Control Program, Pacific Northwest
November 1962
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PEND OREILLE BASIN (IDAHO-WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of
the economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
B. Definition of the Area
The Pend Oreille Basin, for the purposes of this study, is de-
fined to include Bonner County, Idaho and Pend Oreille County, Washington.
C. Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1985.
D. Limitations of This Analysis
Three limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is
intended only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject
area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin
Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will
be made on an industry-byindustry basis of the growth potential in the
various subbasins. At that time this preliminary estimate will be re-
viewed and revised if necessary.
The second limitation is that this study is intended for use
particularly ia assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed
on the analysis of those industries which make heavy demands upon the
water resource. Other industries have been considered only insofar as
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02
they may have a significant effect on future population. For this reason,
this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
The third limitation is one of scope. The study is oriented
to a specific project and is intended for sizing purposes. Consider-
ation of inter-region relationships at a later date may require modi-
fication of conclusions.
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
A. Population
Population of the Pend Oreille basin at April 1960 is shown
in Table I. The total population of the area changed very slightly in
numbers in the decade 1950-1960. Though Pend Oreille County's numbers
dropped considerably, a moderate rise in Bonner County resulted in a
slight over-all gain for the area. There was no area in the region
that displayed significant population growth.
As Table I indicates, the region is one with a predominantly
rural pattern of settlement. In fact, the ten years 1950-60 saw urban
populations drop from 48.5 percent of the basin's total to 47.7 percent,
as population decline was slower in the rural than in urban portions of
Pend Oreille County, while the rural population of Bonner County in-
creased faster than its town population.
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TABLE I &t
Population Trends in the Fend Oreille Basin
Fend Oreille County
Metaline"
Metaline Falls
lone
Cusick
Newport
• Urban Total
Rural
Fend Oreille County Total
Bonner County
Clarks Fork
Ponderay
Priest River
East Hope
Hope
Sandpoint
Kootenai
Oldtown
Urban Total
Rural
Bonner County Total
Basin Total
1950
563
547
714
360
1,385
3,569
3,844
7,413
387
248
1,588
149
111
4,265
199
258
7,205
7,648
14,853
22,266
1960
299
469
648
299
1,513
3,228
3,686
6,914
452
231
1,749
154
96
4,355
180
211
7,428
8,159
15,587
22,501
Change
-264
- 78
- 66
- 61
128
-341
-158
-499
65
- 17
161
5
- 15
90
- 19
- 47
223
511
734
235
(47.77.)
(13.37.)
( 9.27.)
(17 7.)
( 9.27.)
( 9.57.)
( 4.17.)
( 6.77.)
(16.87.)
( 6.87.)
(10.17.)
( 3.37.)
(13.57.)
( 2.17.)
( 9.57.)
(18.27.)
( 3.17.)
( 6.77.)
( 4.97.)
( 1.17.)
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960
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B. Industry
The region depends on three major industries - agriculture,
lumbering, and mining. Together these industries provided about 33.6
percent of the total employment in 1960. A fourth source of employment
is the area's recreational resources in the form of rivers, lakes and
forests, which swelled the ratio of service employment to 53.5 percent
in 1960 - unusually high for a predominantly rural area. Table II
categorizes major sources of employment in 1960.
Agricultural employment has dropped steadily with farm consoli-
dation. The average farm in the area is fairly large, 521.1 acres in
Bonner County in 1959, 339.5 acres in Pend Oreille County, The agri-
cultural pattern shows a steady rise in the value of livestock and
products, with dairy products accounting for roughly half of the value
of livestock products, and a moderate decline in value of crops, Irri-
gation is practiced on a very minor scale. In 1959, only 2,813 acres
were irrigated in Bonner County, 2,702 acres in Tend Oreille County,
down from 3,830 and 3,392 respectively, in 1954. -/
Lumbering depends on forest stands in the Coeur d'Alene,
Nordman and Kaniksu National Forests. Extensive logging and a number
of small saw mills are chief sources of employment, with shingle mills
and wood preserving plants also present. It would appear that a sub-
stantial part of the region's log output is sawed in nearby Coeur d'Alene.
Mining in Pend Oreille County has, in the past, been a more
significant contributor to the regional economy. Lead and zinc deposits
\l U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
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are currently worked in two mines, with a third, quite large, mine under
development. A lengthy strike at the Kellogg, Idaho smelting plant of
The Bunker Hill Company combined with persistent low prices for lead and
zinc, resulted in a stringent cutback in production in the early 'sixties,,
which has halved mine employment.
Other manufacturing activities are largely concentrated in
Sandpoint, Idaho, county seat of Bonner County, and service and commercial
center for the region. Sandpoint also appears to be a center of tourist
trade, a substantial element in the regional economy.
TABLE II £/
Employment by Industry, 1960
Mining
Construction
Non-durable goods
Trans. Comm. & utilities
Wholesale & retail trade
All other services
Industry not reported
Total
Unemployed
Total Labor Force
y and fisheries
products
goods
iods
.ties
rade
sd
Pend Oreille
208
223
140
395
134
34
110
330
538
45
2,157
253
2,410
Bonner
611
13
295
860
56
66
371
1006
1309
110
4,697
722
5,419
% of Area Total
10.5%
3.2
5.5
16.1
2.4
1.2
6.1
17.3
23.6
1.9
87.6
12.4
100. 0%
a/ Uo S. Census of Population, 1960
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III. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth
During the 1950-60 decade the Fend Oreille basin was practically
static in population and economic activity. Suffering from the effects of
low commodity prices on its raw-materials based economy.
The future outlook continues to depend largely on the region's
agriculture, timber and non-ferrous metals; and for several reasons, these
present the area with little hope for vigorous expansion.
Farm consolidation appears to have lagged to some extent behind
Northwest experience, suggesting a continuing drain on agricultural employ-
ment. The region's forests are being exploited near sustained yield levels,
indicating only moderate growth of timber production. At the same time, the
area would appear to support an unusual number of small sawmills; some
strain on lumbering employment may be expected as a greater portion of the
area's timber comes to be cut in fewer, but larger and more productive,
mills.
The sustained depression of the domestic lead and zinc industry-
a function of the combination of excess productive capacity internationally,
competition- from substituted, products, and slowly rising demand for products
using the metals - suggests only moderate growth from this resource.
Some economic growth is promised by expansion of the tourist
industry in the three national forests of the area, and the lakes - Priest,
Pend Oreille, and Hoodoo - which are its distinctive feature. The national
trend to more extensive outdoor recreation, and an excellent highway network,
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make such recreational attractions eminently valuable to an area.
B. Future Population
Various projections for future population growth in the States
of Washington and Idaho have been made by state and federal agencies.
As suggested above, it would appear that the growth of the Fend Oreille
basin will be well under tha£ of the states in which it lies. For the
purposes of this study, it is assumed that the population decline of
Fend Oreille County can be reversed and that Bonner County will continue
to grow.' If an annual growth rate of .7 percent is assumed, population
of the basin would be as follows:
1960 1985 . 2010
29,415 36,760 46,720
Within the area, growth of the Idaho portion should continue to
exceed that of Fend Oreille County in Washington.
No attempt is made at this time to forecast the growth outlook
for individual towns. As a rough guide, it may be assumed that growth
will be concentrated in the three larger towns, and in those serving the
mining industry. Rural populations may be expected to decline, and the
decline may well include some of the smaller towns„ as the prevailing
national trend to urbanization asserts itself in the area.
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