WORKING PAPER NO. 39
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
FOR WATER SUPPLY AND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT
TETON COUNTY (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE; December 14, 1962 DISTRIBUTION;
Prepared by RLC Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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this working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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TETON COUNTY (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
Table of Contents
SUMMARY 1
I. INTRODUCTION 2
A. Purpose of This Analysis 2
B. Definition of the Area 2
C. Study Period 2
D. Limitations of This Analysis 2
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 3
A. Population 3
B. Industry 3
III. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 6
A. Factors Influencing Future
Growth 6
B. Future Population 7
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution
Control Program, Pa'cific Northwest
December, 1962
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TETON COUNTY (IDAHO) C-l
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
SUMMARY
Teton County, Idaho, had a 1960 population of 2,639. The main town of
the county, Driggs, contained 824 of these, while two smaller towns con-
tained another 434 persons. The remaining population was largely settled in
scattered farms. During the 1950-60 decade, population of the county de-
clined 565 persons, or 17.7 percent.
Agriculture is the principal economic activity of the region, occupy-
ing 46.5 percent of the 1960 labor force. Farm consolidation and increased
i
labor productivity in agriculture are. the principal reasons for declining
population in the area!
A slowing of the trend to farm consolidation, increased diversification
in agricultural production, and some increase in irrigation* should slow the
*r .
>
decline in agricultural employment in the future.
Based on the assumptions and limitations which are a part of this pre-
liminary economic reconnaissance, the population of Teton County is forecast
to be substantially unchanged in 1985 and 2010.
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I. INTRODUCTION C-2
A. Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
B. Definition of the Area
The study area consists of Teton County, Idaho.
C. Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1985.
D. Limitations of This Analysis
Three limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is
intended only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject
area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin
Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be
made on an industry-by-industry basis of the, growth potential in the various
subbasins. At that time this preliminary estimate will be reviewed and
revised, if necessary.
The second limitation is that this study is intended for use par-
ticularly in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the
analysis of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource.
Other industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a signi-
ficant effect on future population. For this reason, this study is not sub-
mitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
The third limitation is one of scope. The study is oriented to a
specific project and is intended for sizing purposes. Consideration of inter-
region relationships at a later date may require modification of conclusions.
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03
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
A. Population
Population of Teton County, Idaho at April, 1960, and at the 1940 and
1950 censuses is shown in Table I.
Driggs
Tetonia
Victor
Total Urban
Rural
Total County.
Population
1940
1,040
250 &
294
1,584
2,017
3,601
TABLE I-'
Trends t Teton County^ Idaho
1950
941
232
431
1,604
1,600
3,204
1960
824
194
240
1,258
1,381
2,639
Change
1940 - 1960
-216
- 56
- 54
-326
-636
-962
(-20.8%)
(-22.4%)
(-18.3%)
(-20.6%)
(-31.5%)
(-26.7%)
I . '
As the table indicates, population of the region has been dropping
for some time. In this it follows the national trend toward population
concentration in urban areas, and falling numbers of rural inhabitants.
Loss of population has not been even. The three towns in Teton
i '• ' . •
County have lost population at a rate less than half that of the unincorpora-
i
ted area, and as a result their combined totals have come to represent
roughly half of the number of the county's inhabitants.
B. Industry
Teton County is almost entirely dependent on agriculture, which in
1960 accounted for about 48 percent of total employment and 81 percent of
non-service employment. Table II categorizes major sources of employment in
1950 and 1960.
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
b_/ Estimate for comparison purposes.
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Employment
ries
:ts
)le goods
Ired prdts
lurable
Lea
LI trade
ass sery.
il serv.
it ion
>rted
rce
TABLE II -1
Trends , Teton County
1950
624
3
3
41
7
4
12
3
1
29
11
108
52
8
48
7
23
30
1,004
•44
1,048
%
labor force
( 59.6)
( .3)
( .3)
( 3.9)
( .7)
( -4)
( 1.1)
( .3)
( .1)
( 2.7)
( 1.0)
( 10.3)
(4.9)
( .8)
( 4.6)
( .7)
( 2.2)
( 2.9)
( 95,8)
( 6.2)
(100.0)
. Idaho
%
1960 labor force
408
3
-0-
26
12
-0-
39
10
-0-
21
11
106
55
13
92
4
34
23
857
25
882
( 46.5)
( .3)
'
( 2.9)
( .1-3).
-
( 27.0)
( 1.1)
-.
( 2.4)
( 1.2)
( 12.0)
( 6.2)
( 1.5)
( 10.4)
( .4)
( 3.9)
( 2.6)
( 97.2),
< 2-8>
(100.0)
C-4
Change
1950-1960
-216 (-34.5%)
-0-
r 3 -
-15 (- 1.4%)
5 ( 71.5%)
- 4
22 (183.0%)
7 (233.0%)
1
- 8 (-36.1%)
rO-
- 2 (- 1.9%)
3 ( 5.8%)
5 ( 62.5%)
44 ( 91.6%)
- 3 (-42,8%)
11 ( 47.8%)
- 7 (-23.3%)
-147 (-14.0%)
j-
-166 (-15.8%)
Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
Mining
Construction
Mfg: wood, products
printing
other not
Transportation
Cournun. & utilities
Hospitals
Education
Other profess!
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Total Employed
Unemployed
Total Labor Force
The drop in agricultural employment, the chief economic activity of
the area, was considerably sharper than that for. total employment. Some
categories °f service employment increased in the face of declining population.
I
Food processing employment also rose. (Driggs contains a creamery, a flour
mill and a grain mill.) But the decline in agricultural employment was
sufficient to over-ride the effects of these factors, and to 'depress popula-
tion levels.
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960
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C-5
Grazing is the major agricultural force in the county, and its rela-
tive importance has continued to increase. Diversion of cropland to pasture
and Increased numbers of milk cows, beef cattle, and sheep have been character-
istic of the region. The main crops of the area are grains and hay, though
increasing attention to potato culture has occurred with added irrigation
and with the growth of market attendant on the rapid expansion of Idaho's
potato-processing industry. — In general, changes in the farm economy have
been slow, and have taken the path of consolidation of farm ownership, greater
21
productivity per acre and per worker, — additions tp meat and dairy herds,
and expansion, of irrigation, largely through use of ground water on an indi-
vidual basis. Table III describes the course of major trends in agriculture.
TABLE III ~
Agricultural Trends. Teton County. Idaho
% Change
-13.1
16.0
8.5
-12.0
24.2
6.1
18T5
1949
No . of farms
Average size of farm (acres)
Land irrigated (acres)
Cropland harvested (acres)
Pasture (acres)
Value of crops sold
Value of livestock & pdts
sold
33,
76,
68,
$1,465,
$1,515,
459
432
152
378
146
495
b/
884-'
1959
35,
67,
84,
$1,554,
$1,896,
399
501
972
188
517
798
868
.2
u
.£>,
_!/ Potato harvest in the county rose from 94,978 cwt in 1954 to 163,810 cwt
in 1959.
2/ Grain production of all types in 1959 amounted to about 1,011 bushels on
40.7 thousand acres; in 1954 production was about 1,090 bushels on
46.8 thousand acres.
a/ U. SiCensus of Agriculture, 1954; 1959.
b/ Includes dairy products of $340,975 in 1949, $554,735 in 1959.
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C-6
III. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth
Agriculture is estimated to continue to be the primary pursuit of
the area. Although over a third of the county lies in Targhee National
Forest, logging conditions do not suggest significant expansion, and saw
mills sufficient to handle Eastern Idaho production have developed in other
areas. No significant mineral resources are believed to exist in the county.
Teton County is located a sufficient distance from major tourist routes to
preclude development of such recreational resources as it may have. Develop-
ment of manufacturing industries is highly unlikely in this thinly-populated
rural area, distant from either markets or sources of supply, and with in-
sufficient agricultural output to justify development of appreciable food-
processing units.
Three significant factors should prpduce some modification-of the
agricultural pattern. (1) Increased irrigation should enable the area to
further diversify from the dominant grain cropping pattern. Increased cattle-
feeding and potato-culture seem likely; (2) Further development of Idaho
potato processing, and eventual growth of a meat-packing industry, seem to
offer the conditions for utilizing the potential diversification inherent
in irrigation possibilities; (3) Farm consolidation should continue, be-
cause of the economies of scale it offers. Its effect on employment should
be less severe than in the immediate past, however, because the a.rea is
developing a pattern of specialized share cropping, as a result of the
existence, side-by-side, of dry-farming and irrigated farming, with their
different requirements in technique. A specialized agricultural labor force
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C-7
is being developed, too, as farms exceed the optimum size for one-family
cultivation.
With no non-agricultural sources of growth, and an agricultural
development indicating change within the present frame of the industry rather
than expansion, service activities are unlikely to change to a material
extent. The area economy is not large enough to support a large service
segment, and the availability of most services at not too-distant Rigby,
Rexburg and Idaho Falls would appear to preclude more than the most modest
growth of service industries within the area.
B. Future Population
The economic potentials do not suggest any expansion of popula-
tion in Teton County, whose population has been dropping since the census
of 1940.
On the assumptions that increased irrigation and some diversifi-
cation of agricultural production will enable farm employment to remain
constant, and that the population of the region can adequately support the
present level of services, it is forecast for the purposes of this paper
that population will be substantially unchanged in 1985 and 2010.
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