WORKING PAPER NO. 8
COOS COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
April, 1962
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control Program
Pacific Northwest
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COOS COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
Table. g£ Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of Analysis 1
Definition of Area 1
Study Parlod 1
Limitations of Analysis 2
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
Population 2
Industry 5
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 6
Factors Influencing Future Growth 6
Future Population 8
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
April, 1962
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COOS COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTHt 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of Area
The study area, Coos County, is divided into two parts--the Coos
River Basin and the Coquilla River Basin. The political boundaries
of Coos County correspond fairly closely to the combined drainage
area of die two river basins. A small portion of each basin extends
into Douglas County, but these small areas are mountainous and nearly
uninhabited. In addition, small areas at the northwest and southwest
corners of the county are outside the physical boundaries of the Coos
and Coquille River Basins and drain directly into the ocean.
For purposes of this economic analysis, the Coquille River Basin
is defined as the area included in the following 1960 Census
County Divisions: Bandon, Coquille, Myrtle Point East, Myrtle
Point West, and Powers. The Coos River Basin is defined as the
remainder of Coos County.
Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1980.
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Limitations of Analysis
Two limitations apply to diis study. The first is that it is
intended only as a prelimincry estimate of the outlook for the
subject area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the
Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and Water Quality
Management, an analysis will be made on an industry-by-industry
basis of the growth potential in the various sub-basins. At that
time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised If
necessary.
The second limitation is that this study is intended for use
particularly in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been
placed on the analysis of those industries which make heavy demands
upon the water resource. Other industries have been considered only
insofar as they may have a significant effect on future population.
For this reason, this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial
forecast.
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
Population
Total population in Coos County, as of April 1960, was 54,955.
Table I shows how this population was distributed among the various
cities and rural portions of the two river basins comprising the
county. In the Coos River Basin, there are four cities which,
together with two unincorporated communities of over 1,000 population
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each, are all clustered together and form a single urban area.
The population of this Coos Bay Urban Area constitutes 67 percent
of total Coos River Basin population. The remaining 33 percent of
Coos River Basin population is :>rural," a term used in this report
to include not only agricultural population but also small
unincorporated communities. In the Coquille River Basin, there
are four separate cities, whose combined population is equal to about
half of that Basin's population.
Table I
Population of Coos County, April 1950
Coos River Basin—' Coquille River Basing/
Bunker Hill Community 1,655 Bandon City 1,653
Englewood Community 1,382 Coquille City 4,730
Coos Bay City 7,034 Myrtle Point City 2,886
Hastside City 1,380 Powers City 1.366
Empire City 3,781 Total, 4 Cities 10,635
North Bend City 7,51.2 Rural portion of
Total, Coos Bay basir£' 10.115
Urban AreaV 22,794 Total, Coquille
Rural portion of River Basin 20,750
basing 11.411
Total,
Coos River Basin 34,205 34.205
Total Population in Coos County, comprising
Coos and Coquille River Basins 54,955
JL/ Defined to include the following 1960 Census Divisions:
Bunker Hill, Charleston, Coos Bay, Eastside, Empire, North
Bayside, and North Bend.
2/ Defined to include the following 1960 Census Divisions:
Bandon, Coquille, Myrtle Point East, Myrtle Point West, and
Powers.
.3/ The four cities and two unincorporated communities shown in
the Coos River Basin are all immediately adjacent to one
another and comprise a single Urban Area. The only urban
population in the Basin is in this Urban Area.
4/ Included in the "rural" classification are suburban areas
and small unincorporated communities as well as the
agricultural population.
Source: U. S. Census of Population, April 1960.
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Table II shows the population growth in the cities and rural portions
of tha Coos and Coquille River Basins during the past decade. The
1950-60 dacade x^as a period of rapid expansion in Coos County. Only
two counties in Oregon, Curry and Washington, exceeded the population
growth rate of Coos County. All of the cities of the county
participated in the growth. Rural population, particularly in the
Coos River Basin, also increased. However, growth in the rural
portions took place largely in the suburban areas around the cities.
Agricultural employment decreased from 1,219 in 1950 to 785 in 1960;
and the farm population included in the rural portions declined during
the decade.
Table II
Growth of Urban and Rural Population in Coos County, 1950-1960
Compound Annual
City or Area 1950 1960 Rate of Growth 7.
Coos River Basinl/
Bunker Hill Community 1,409 1,655 1.6
Englewood Community 950 (e) 1,382 3.8
Coos Bay City 5,223 7,084 1.4
Eastside City 890 1,380 4.5
Empire City 2,261 3,781 5.3
North Bend City 6.099 7.512 2.1
Coos Bay Urban Area.2/ 17,832 22,794 2.5
Rural portion of Basinl/ 7.599 11.411 4.2
Total Coos River Basin 25,431 34,205 3.1
Coquille River Basing/
Bandon City 1,251 1,653 2.8
Coquille City 3,523 4,730 3.0
Myrtle Point City 2,033 2,886 3.6
Powers City 895 1,360 4.4
Rural portion of Basin3-/ 9,132 10,115 1.0
Total Coquille River Basin 16,834 20,750 2.1
Total Coos County 42,265 54,955 2.7
State of Oregon, Total 1,521,341 1,768,687 1.5
Estimated
I/ For area included, see footnote 1, Table I.
"2"/ See footnote 3, Table I.
3V See footnote 4, Table I.
5/ For area included, see footnote 2, Table I.
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Industry
The economy of Coos County is heavily dependent upon lumber and wood
products manufacturing. About nine oat of ten manufacturing workers
are in lumber and wood products industries. The ratio was about the
same in 1950 as in 1960. Coos County is one of the few areas of the
state where employment in lumber and wood products manufacturing
increased during the 1950-50 decade. Table III shows the employment
pattern in Coos County.
Table III
Employment by Industry, Coos County, April 1950 and April 1960
1960 as %
1950 .1960 of 1950
Population of Coos County
Total Employment
Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Manufacturing, TOTAL
Lumber, Wood Products
Food and Kindred
Print, and Publish.
Other Manufacturing
Construction
Services
Industry Not Reported
42,265
16,661
1,219
277
49
6.852
6,170
255
117
310
956
7,057
251
54,955
19,111
735
280
12
7.109
6,289
259
181
370
882
9,677
366
130
115
64
101
24
104
102
105
155
119
92
137
146
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1950 and I960
Coos County's specialization in lumber and wood products manu-
facturing is emphasized by comparing the distribution of employment
there with the distribution of employment in the Portland Region as
a whole, as shown in Table IV. About one-third of the entire labor
force in Coos County is in lumber and wood products manufacturing,
compared with only 12 percent in the Region. The Portland Region
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is defined to include all of Oregon plus five southwestern
Washington counties. Employment in agriculture, on the other hand,
is considerably below the Regional norm. Since 19GO, there has been
some diversification of the Coos County economy with the establish-
ment of a small paper mill on Coos Bay. However, Lhe economy remains
almost wholly dependent upon the timber resource.
Table IV
Employment Distribution, Coos County and Portland Region, April 1960
Percent of Employed Civilian Labor Force
Coos Portland
Industry County Region JL/
Agriculture 4.1 7.1
Forestry and Fisheries 1.5 .7
Mining '.1 .2
Manufacturing, TOTAL 37.2 24.5
Lumber, Wood Products 32.9 11.9
Food and Kindred 1.4 2.8
Print, and Publish. 1.0 1.4
Other Manufacturing 1.9 3.4
Construction 4.6 6.3
Services 50.6 58.6
Industry Not Reported 1.9 2.6
TOTAL Employed
Civilian Labor Force 100.0 100.0
.!/ The Portland Ilagion is defined to include all of
Oregon plus five southwestern Washington counties.
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1960.
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
Factors Influencing Future Growth
The economic base of Coos County rests at present almost exclusively
on the timber resource and this will continue in the future to be the
main support of the economy. However, diversification of the types of
products built upon the timber base can lead to growth in the number
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of employed. The most important possibility in this respect
appears to be the manufacture of pulp and paper products. The most
likely site for such pulp and paper manufacturing is around
Coos Bay. Production of the order of 1,000 tons per day by 1980
and 2,000 tons per day by the year 2000 appears to be possible.
Particular assets favoring expansion of manufacturing around
Coos Bay include deep water port facilities, fresh water supplies
derived from nearby sand dunes, railroad facilities, and a con-
venient location relative to large timber holdings of Georgia-
Pacific and Weyerhaeuser Corporations.
Economic expansion in the Coquille River Basin is expected to be
at a slower rate than in the Coos River Basin, which has more
complete facilities. However, some spill-over of economic growth
from Coos Bay is likely to benefit the Coquille area. The City
of Coquille will also participate in county-wide gi'ow'ch since it
is the seat of county government.
In addition to the anticipated expansion in pulp and paper manu-
facturing, the timber resource is expected to suppori: additional
production of lumber and wood products. Not only the timber in
Coos County, but also that in the northern part of Curry County
is likely to be processed in cities in the Coquille or Coos River
Basins.
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Other factors which may provide some future growth and further
diversification of the economy include tourist-oriented activities
along the coast and in the national forests and minerals, among
which are titanium-bearing sands.
Future Popula tion
The possibilities for additional jobs in Coos County appear to be
sufficient to permit county population to grow in the future at a
raize about equal to that for the state as a whols. A preliminary
estimate of future growth of state population, based upon the
U. S. Census Bureau's "Series 1I:1 projection of national population,
is as follows, expressed in annual compound percentage rates:
1950-1930: 2.3
1930-2000: 2.0
2000-2010: 1.7
For reasons referred to in the preceding section, the population of
the Coos River Basin is expected to grow considerably more rapidly
than that of the Coquille River Basin. Within each basin, urban
population has in the past been increasing more rapidly than rural
population; and this trend is expected to continue. Table V
provides a preliminary forecast of future population for Coos County
and its various parts. In Tabls V, the several citias in the
Coos Bay Basin, which are all adjacent to one another, are treated
as a single Urban Area.
Table V is submitted as an illustrative calculation of the population
that would develop in the various cities and areas of Coos County
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if the growth rates shown in the table are assumed. It should be
noted that projections for small areas are subject to even greater
hazards than those inherent in projections for entire counties or
sub-basins since the loss of a single mill or the addition of a
single mill can represent a very large percentage change. While
projections for small areas are inevitably somewhat arbitrary, a
number of factors x^hich were taken into consideration in calculating
Table V should be mentioned. Already discussed are the assumptions
that total county population will increase at about the same rate
as that expected for the state as a whole, that the Coos River Basin
will grow considerably more rapidly than the Coquille River Basin,
and that rural population will represent a continually declining
proportion of total basin population. It is assumed that the rural
population in the Coos River Basin will grow more rapidly than that
in the Coquille River Basin because "rural" is defined to include all
suburban areas. There are no incorporated cities in the Coas River
Basin outside the Coos River Urban Area, so that the "rural" portion
of the Basin includes all of the Basin outside that Urban Area.
Growth in the Coquille Basin will not only be smaller, but divided
among four incorporated places, so that it will probably produce
less suburban development. Annexation policies of the various cities
represent an additional and unpredictable variable. Among the cities
in the Coquille Basin, Coquille will grow because of the location
there of county government and because of its close proximity to the
Coos Bay Urban Area. Bdndon, the only sizable community in the
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county located directly on the ocsan, is expected to benefit from
the tourist industry. The future of Myrtle Point and Powers is
more difficult to anticipate. However, they are both located on
the railroad and also on a road leading to the national forest
lands in the northern part of Curry County. Powers is expected
to experience a nominal increase in employment as a result of the
Eden Ridge development of Pacific Power and Light Company.
Table V
Estimated Future Population in Coos County, 1960-2010
(Population to nearest thousand)
City
Coos
Coos
Total
or Area
Bay Urban Areai/
River
, Coos
Basin,
River
Rural
Basin
a,
o
PL,
O
vO
ON
i-H
22.
11.
34.
8
4
2
3
O
OO
CO
O"*<^™'
r-I OH
i CD
o S>-t
CO4-J
CJN CD*^^
i— 'CiB^
2.8
1.1
2.4
t
o.
0
PM
O
O
o
CM
74.5
19.2
93.7
o
OO
i-l
CO^W
CMO t-4
1 CD
OOJ 4)
C^4J^^
CO C0"**"te
CNPSB>2
2.4
0.8
2.0
^
a.
0
a.
o
i-i
o
CM
94 ..4
20.8
115.2
Bandon, ?€lty
Coquille, City
Myrtle Point, City
Powers, City
1.7
4.7
2.0
2.4
2.9 1.9
1.4 1.8
2.5 1.7
7.6 1.9
4.2 1,0
2.0 1.0
Coquille River Basin, Rural 10.1 0.9 12.0 0.4
Total, Coquille River Basin 20.8 1.6 28.3 1.0
3,5 1.0
11.1 1.4
5.0 0.6
2.4 0.6
13.0 0..2
35.0 0.8
Total, Coos County
3.9
12.8
5.3
2.6
13.2
37.8
55.0 2.3 86.6 2.0 128.7 1.7 153.0
JL/ Includes cities of Coos Bay, Eastside, Empire snd North Bend, and
unincorporated communities of Bunker Hill and Sn
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