WORKING PAPER NO. 32
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
WEISER RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: QCT301962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by RT.P. Project Staff_
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
X.
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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WEISER RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of This Analysis 1
Definition of the Area 1
Study Period 1
Limitations of This Analysis 1
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
Population 2
Industry 3
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 8
Factors Influencing Future Growth 8
Future Population 10
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
October, 1962
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WEISER RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic
potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of the Area
The Weiser River Basin, for the purposes of this study, is defined to
include those portions of eastern Washington and southern Adams Counties
that compose the following census districts in the Census of Population of
1950: West Weiser, Weiser, Middle Weiser, Eas't Weiser, Mann Creek, Midvale,
Cambridge, Goodrich, Council.
Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point
at 1985.
Limitations of This Analysis
Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is intended only
as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's growth.
Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin Project for Water
Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be made on an industry-
by-industry basis of the growth potential in the various sub-basins. At that
time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if necessary.
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The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particularly
in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the analysis
of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource.
Other industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a
significant effect on future population. For this reason, this study is
not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
Population
The Weiser River Basin contains about 75 per cent of the population of
Washington and Adams Counties, and about 14% per cent of the population of
the eight-county Central Snake area outside of Ada and Canyon Counties.
Population is concentrated in four towns - Weiser, Midvale and Cambridge
in Washington County, and Council in Adams County. Moderate growth of
these towns has kept the area's population nearly static over the last
two decades, in spite of considerable contraction of rural population.
Table I indicates the distribution and trend of population in the area.
Table I I/
POPULATION TRENDS IN THE WEISER RIVER BASIN
Area Population Change
1940 1950 1960 194~0-1960
Weiser 3,664 3,961 4,208 +14.6%
Midvale 262 231 285 +8.8%
Cambridge 405 354 441 + 8.9%
Council 692 748 827 +19.5%
Total Urban Population 5,023 5,-294 5,761 +14.7%
Rural Population I/ 3,831 3,461 . 3,175 -17.0%
Total Population 8,854 8,755 8,936 + .9%
I/ U. S. Census of Population 1950, 1960
2/ Rural populations for 1940 and 1950 represent the populations of the
nine census districts, less the populations of the four townships. For
1960 the figure is derived by subtracting town populations and a portion
of the Washington and Adams Counties' 1950-1960 population loss similar to
the region's 1940 to 1950 population loss.
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The course of population in the Weiser Basin is typical of the larger
Central Snake River Basin. The whole area has seen rural populations drop
while town populations have risen modestly. The fact that the .Central
Snake area has kept pace with Idaho's population growth is due largely to
^
the population influx in Elmore County as a result of emplacement of
Mountain Home Air Force Base and a related missile site. Table II
summarizes population trends in the Central Snake Basin.
Table II $1
POPULATION TRENDS IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE RIVER BASIN
Area
Adams County
Washington County
Boise County
Elmore County
Gem County
Owyhee County
Payette County
Valley County
Central Snake Area
Idaho
Population
1940
3,407
8,853
2,333
5,518
9,544
5,652
9,511
4,035
1950
3,347
8,576
1,776
6,687
8,730
6,307
11,921
4,270
1960
2,978
8,378
1,646
16,719
9,127
6,375
12,363
3,663
Change
1940-1960
-12.6%
- 5.4%
-29.5%
+203%
- 4.3%
+12.8%
+30.0%
-10.1%
48,853 51,614 61,249
524,873 588,637 667,191
+25.4%
+27.1%
J5/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960
Industry
The Weiser River Basin is a predominantly agricultural area. In the portion
of the area that reaches into Adams County lumbering is pursued, with a
sawmill located in Council and logging carried out in Payette National Forest,
Agriculture, however, provided 31.3% of the total employment in 1960, and
may be presumed to be the principal source of support for service industries.
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Changing agricultural patterns have imposed shifts on the regional economy.
Increasing concentration of farm ownership, together with an increase in
farmland and greater attention to the grazing of cattle and sheep has,
assisted by the use of irrigation, resulted in a sharp rise in productivity.
Between 1954 and 1959 the value of agricultural products sold in Washington
County rose 42.2 per cent; yet between 1950 and 1960 farm employment fell
24.6 per cent in the two-county area. The agricultural change has been
two-sided. On the one hand there has been far more attention to grazing
and sale of cattle and sheep. On the other, added irrigation opportunities
have resulted in more diversified cropping: production of oats, field
seeds, potatoes, sugar beets, and vegetables -- largely corn and dry onions -
has increased; while production of wheat, barley, dairy products and
poultry products has dropped off. Wheat remains the chief crop of the area,
but sugar beets and potatoes have climbed close in terms of value of crops sold.
Major changes in the agricultural economy of the region are summarized in
Table III.
Table III -'
TRENDS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AGRICULTURE, 1954 - 1959
1954 1959 Change
Number of farms 776 .678 -12.6%
Land in farms (acres) 566,729 659,270 16.2%
Average size of farm (acres) 730.3 972.4 33.2%
Land in irrigated farms (acres) 394,213 487,916 24.8%
Cropland harvested (acres) 73,766 66,230 -10.2%
Value of crops sold $2,351,951 $2,903,200 23.4%
Pasture (acres) 462,673 560,645 -21.2%
Irrigated pasture (acres) 13,385 23,228 73.5%
Value of livestock & products sold $3,469,641 $5,364,927 53.6%
I/ U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
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The town of Weiser, county seat of Washington County, is the largest of
the four towns in the area, and provides a major share of manufacturing
and service employment, as indicated in Table IV.
Table IV -/
PROPORTION OF 1960 WASHINGTON COUNTY EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED CATEGORIES
PROVIDED BY WEISER
Finance, insurance, real estate 83%
Personal service . 70.2%
Public administration 67%
Wholesale & retail trade 66.8%
Manufacturing 64.5%
Professional & related service 61%
All employment 51.1%
21 U. S. Census of Population, 1960
Weiser has not developed a substantial manufacturing or processing
industry. Most manufacturing units are small, and their products are
largely consumed or employed in the immediate area. Food processing is
the chief manufacturing industry, with a flour mill, a bakery, a beverage
bottling plant, and a producer of potato chips located in the town. Most
of the region's agricultural output, however, is routed to processing
plants in nearby Payette and Emmett.
Commercial and service occupations are the major source of employment
opportunities. Besides the legal and administrative services provided by
county government, the town contains a stockyard, and a grain warehouse.
Two bus lines and the Union Pacific Railroad serve it. Weiser contains,
besides retail establishments, eleven wholesale firms, a branch of the
Idaho First National Bank, Washington County's only, hospital, utility
offices, and grade and high schools.
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Cambridge and Midvale, located 31 and 23 highway miles, respectively, up-
river from Weiser, are largely service centers for the agricultural country-
side. Each contains a grain warehouse on a spur of the Union Pacific, a
grade school, a high school, and retail establishments. A glue factory in
Cambridge employed 16 persons in 1960.
Council, the county seat and largest community in Adams County, is somewhat
larger than Cambridge or Midvale. It serves as both an agricultural service
center and as the focus of regional lumbering, being the location of a saw-
mill of Boise Cascade Corporation and three logging firms. In addition to
the services provided by its smaller neighbors, Council contains a stock-
yard, a hospital, and a branch bank.
Table V, which lists employment provided by various industries, reflects the
weight of agriculture on the region's economy.
Table V'^/
NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED IN VARIOUS-INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1960
Industry . Adams County Washington County
number %labor .force number %labor force
Agriculture . 302 25.8% 1,019 30.8%
Forestry & fisheries 29 2.5 4 .1
Construction 63 5.4 . 176 5.3
Manufacturing 155 13.3 320 9.7
Transportation, communication, utility 26 2.2 188 5.7
Wholesale & retail trade 178 15.3 573 17.4
Finance, insurance, real estate 20 1.7 47 1.4
Business & repair service 8 .7 66 2.0
Personal service 61 5.2 175 5.3
Hospital & medical service 32 2.7 51 1.5
Education 38 3.2 214 6.5
Other professional service 39 3.3 92 2.8
Public administration 39 3.3 118 3.6
Industry not classified 8 .7 92 2.8
Total Employed 998 85.6 3,135 95.1
Unemployed 168 14.4 164 4.9
Total Labor Force 1,166 100.0 3,299 100.0
3/ U. S. Census of Population, 1960
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Employment in the Weiser Basin has changed materially over the last decade
Agricultural employment has fallen off sharply, as previously noted, and this
has been aggravated by an even steeper drop in forest products employment.
These have been only partially compensated by increased service employment
and some development of manufacturing. Although increased activity in food
processing, a second print shop in Weiser, moderate expansion of mercury
production in Weiser, establishment of a producer of trailers in Weiser, and
a glue factory in Cambridge, have added employment opportunities, the decline
in the region's two basic industries has resulted in loss of population, some
contraction in retailing in both counties, as well as heavy unemployment in
Adams County.
Major shifts in employment in Washington and Adams Counties are summarized
in Table VT. (It should be noted that 1960 was a particularly bad year in
the cyclical lumbering industry, and that employment opportunities in forest
products industries may be somewhat less unfavorable than the figures indicate.)
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Table VI -'
SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN EMPLOYMENT, 1950 - 1960
Industry
Agriculture
Manufacturing:
Washington County
forest products
primary metals
transportation equipment
food & kindred products
printing & publishing .
chemical & allied
Business & repair service
Education
Total
Employment
1950 1960
1,332 1,019
66 36
6 17
0 9
65
19
0
98
114
166
38
16
66
214
Change
-313 (22.6%)
- 30 (45.5%)
+ 11 ( 183%)
+ 9
+101 ( 155%)
+ 19 ( 100%)
* 16
- 32 (32.7%)
+100 (87.7%)
-121
57U. S. Census of Population, 1960
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Table VI (Continued)
C-8
Indus try
Adams County
Agriculture
Manufacturing: forest products
Construction
Transportation
Eating & drinking places
Finance, insurance, real estate
Business & repair service
Education
Total
425
239
33
32
30
5
45
50
302
151
63
8
46
20
28
38
-123 ( 297.)
- 88 (37.8%)
+ 30 ( 91%)
- 24 ( 757.)
f 16 (53.37.)
+ 15 (3007.)
r 17 (37.87.)
-"12 ( 247.)
-203
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
Factors Influencing Future Growth
Relying largely on agriculture for its economic livelihood, the Weiser Basin's
future development must be related to the evolution of agriculture in the
Central Snake River area.
Development of a substantial manufacturing industry seems most unlikely. The
area is not favorably oriented to major markets for heavy manufacturing
industries. The presently known mineral resources present little prospect
of intensive exploitation. The absence of educational and cultural resources
general ly associated with industries employing advanced technology precludes
likelihood of establishment of science-based industries.
Increased irrigated agriculture holds the opportunity of off-setting the
recent trend of decreasing rural population. An addition to irrigation is
included in the proposed Weiser Project involving, approximately, the stretch
of the Weiser River from Cambridge to Weiser. Additional and/or alternate
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irrigation opportunities are also under consideration. Preliminary estimates
by the Bureau of Reclamation indicate that the long range effect of such
projects will be to stabilize the rural population at about the present level.
It is likely that food-processing activities in the town of Weiser may exper-
ience moderate expansion in the future as a side-effect of irrigation develop-
ments. Further irrigation will presumably be followed by expanded and diversi-
fied farm output. It is anticipated, however, that existing units elsewhere
will be able to process most of the additional output.
Lumbering may be expected to provide another source of growth in the northern
part of the area. While a relatively minor part of the western lumber indis try,
the area's timber resources are substantial, and should receive considerable
exploitation with exhaustion of expansion possibilities of supply in more ad-
vanced lumbering 'areas. In the more distant part of the study period, as oppor-
tunities for agricultural expansion decline and lumber demand rises, lumbering,
and ancilary fabrication of forest products, could become a relatively greater
portion of the regional economy.
A fourth possible source of growth - largely in the northern part of the
region - is expanded recreational use of the Payette National Forest and near-
by lakes and reservoirs. Distance from population centers, however, limits
the impact of recreational opportunities. .
The most likely course of development, then, would see a leveling off of farm
employment, perhaps even a minor rise to 1985, as a result of increased irri-
gation. Service industries and service employment may be seen to expand
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moderately as farm employment stabilizes and farm incomes rise. Food
processing would appear to be the only likely source of more than the most
modest growth of manufacturing to 1985. From 1985 to 2010, however, lumber-
ing may play an increasingly important role in the area. Throughout the
period, recreation may be expected to exert a slight but beneficial effect
on service industries and employment.
Future Population
Neither the recent history of the area nor the design pattern of economic
development outlined above suggests vigorous population expansion during the
study period.
The forecast of population is based on several assumptions suggested by
consideration of the evolving economic base: (1) Rural population may be
expected to stabilize, largely as a result of irrigation. (2) Town popu-
lation may be expected to continue to grow as a function of the State's
over-all population growth, the broad tendency to urbanization, and the
growth-in the ratio of service employment to "goods" industry employment.
The rate of growth of town populations is estimated at 1 per cent, compared
to .7 per cent in the period 1940 - 1960. (3) The study area's economic
base will continue to be mainly based on agriculture; and growth based on
agriculture may be anticipated to be less than that of the State as a whole.
Based on these assumptions, the forecast of future population for design
purposes is shown in Table VII. (The indicated rate of population growth
for the area is .7 per cent a year, or about half that projected for the
I/
State as a whole. )
_!/ Based on estimates for 1980 and 2000 in Kerr Committee Report No. 5,
Page 29, Series II, Migration Assumption No. 1.
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Table VII
ESTIMATED POPULATION IN THE WEISER RIVER BASIN
1960 1985 2010
Rural population 3,175 3,175 3,175
Urban population 5,761 7,475 9,500
Total 8,936 10,650 12,675
It is estimated that the major part of the population enlargement will occur
in Weiser and Council, with Council growing at a somewhat faster rate,
particularly in the later stages of the study period.
It must be recognized that this projection is for design purposes only, and
that in a region so small and sparsely settled very minor economic changes
would be sufficient to upset it. For example, establishment of a moderate y
sized factory in the area would create conditions for expansion of greater
.magnitude. Conversely, failure oŁ new irrigation opportunities might be
presumed to result in slower growth, or even decline.
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