WORKING PAPER NO. 28
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
HALSEY, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: August 14, 1962
Prepared by RLC
Reviewed by
Approved by
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies
General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contain* preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal uae by the Columbia ftivar
Baain Project ataff and cooperating agenciea. The material
preaented in thia paper haa not been fully evaluated ami
ahould not be conaidered aa final..
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HALSEY, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 1960-2010
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of Analysis 1
Definition of the Area 1
Study Period 1
Limitations of this Analysis 1
PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1
Population 1
The Present Industrial Pattern 2
ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010 2
The Economic Base 2
Population 3
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
August 14, 1962
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HALSEY, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic
potentials and a broad guide to the anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of the Area
The study is limited to the town of Halsey and the immediately adjacent area.
Study Period
The 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point at 1980, is being used
by this office in its economic studies of the Columbia Basin as a whole, and
the same period is used for this analysis.
Limitations of this Analysis
This is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook for the Halsey
area. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia Basin Study, an analysis
will be made, on an industry-by-industry basis, of the growth potential of the
central Willamette Basin. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be
reviewed, and revised if necessary.
PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Population
The population of Halsey, according to the 1960 census, was 404. The total
area of the town is less than one square mile, and the population area is
equivalent to the boundaries of the township, the immediate countryside
being entirely rural.
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The Present Industrial Pattern
Of the 3,375 persons living in the census division that included Halsey in
1960, 1,279 resided in two towns (Halsey and Brownsville), the bulk of the
remainder lived on farm sites. Agriculture, then, is the primary source of
income for the population area that includes Halsey. The principal crop of
the area is seed grasses, largely domestic ryegrass.
Halsey's economic reason for being is the service it renders as a depot and
secondary commercial and service center for the surrounding agricultural
area. A seed warehouse located in Halsey is one of the largest in the
Willamette Valley and the town's principal employer. Service employment is
provided by a farm equipment store, three small grocery stores, a hardware
store, a building supply store, a bank, a printer who supplies a weekly
newspaper, offices of the telephone and water districts, two restaurants,
two garages, a wrecking yard, two service stations, and an eight-grade
elementary school. About forty persons are employed in service occupations,
twice the number employed by the seed warehouse.
ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010
The Economic Base
Given the type of agricultural economy that supports Halsey, there is no
reason to anticipate decided growth in the future. The area about Halsey
has neither markets nor resources to attract industrial emplacements. There
are no recreational resources to exploit. Albany to the north and Eugene to
the south are close enough to preclude measurable development of commercial
and service activities.
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Population growth in near-by areas and the often depressed market for the
seed grasses grown about Halsey could logically result in development of a
more diversified agricultural base, with greater emphasis on dairying and
vegetable crops. Such a development would require increased capitalization
of farms for irrigation and farm equipment; but it is most unlikely that
this, would result in either the creation of a food processing industry or
an expanded market for farm labor, due to the nearness of established
processing facilities and the increasing productivity of farm labor.
Population
In the past, Halsey!s population has grown only in periods of exceptional
expansion for the State of Oregon. If the decades 1900-1910 and 1940-1950
are excepted, the town's experience since 1880 has been one of population
decline. The rate of population growth from 1950-1960 was only half that
of Linn County, and about a quarter of that of the State of Oregon. In the
absence of an economic rationale for accelerated population growth, one
must assume that Halsey will continue to lag behind the rest of the state.
The inertia of biological forces and some spillover of the growth anticipated
in urban areas of Lane and Linn counties may, however, be sufficient to
arrest the declining trend of Halsey's population. Assuming that population
in the mid-Willamette Basin will expand vigorously in the periods 1960-1985
and 1985-2010, it would appear logical to assign a portion of that growth to
Halsey. Applying, somewhat arbitrarily, a population growth factor of .4%
(based on the relation of Halsey's expansion during the last decade to that
of the mid-Willamette, but with the modifying assumption that population
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growth will be somewhat slower in relation to the rest of the basin during
the study period) supplies a population projection, for design purposes only,
of 475 persons in 1985, 500 in 2010.
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