WORKING PAPER NO. 28
                   COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
           For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
                          HALSEY, OREGON
         PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE:  August 14, 1962

Prepared by   RLC

Reviewed by 	

Approved by 	
DISTRIBUTION

Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies

General
        U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION,  AND WELFARE
                       Public Health Service
                             Region IX

         Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                     Room 570 Pittock Block
                       Portland 5, Oregon

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This working paper contain* preliminary data  and information
primarily intended for internal uae by the Columbia ftivar
Baain Project ataff and cooperating agenciea.  The material
preaented in thia paper haa not been fully evaluated ami
ahould not be conaidered aa final..

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                      HALSEY, OREGON
    PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 1960-2010
                     Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION                                              1

Purpose of Analysis                                       1

Definition of the Area                                    1

Study Period                                              1

Limitations of this Analysis                              1


PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT                              1

Population                                                1

The Present Industrial Pattern                            2


ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010                               2

The Economic Base                                         2

Population                                                3
Prepared by:  Economic Studies Group
              Water Supply and Pollution Control
                      Program, Pacific Northwest
              August 14, 1962

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                                HALSEY, OREGON
              PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH,  1960-2010
INTRODUCTION

Purpose of Analysis

This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic

potentials and a broad guide to the anticipated growth of the subject  area.

Definition of the Area

The study is limited to the town of Halsey and the immediately adjacent area.

Study Period

The 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point at 1980, is being  used

by this office in its economic studies of the Columbia Basin as a whole, and

the same period is used for this analysis.

Limitations of this Analysis

This is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook for the Halsey

area.  Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia Basin Study, an analysis

will be made, on an industry-by-industry basis, of the growth potential of the

central Willamette Basin.  At that time, this preliminary estimate will be

reviewed, and revised if necessary.


PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Population

The population of Halsey, according to the 1960 census, was 404.  The  total

area of the town is less than one square mile, and the population area is

equivalent to the boundaries of the township, the immediate countryside

being entirely rural.

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The Present Industrial Pattern



Of the 3,375 persons living in the census division that included Halsey in



1960, 1,279 resided in two towns (Halsey and Brownsville), the bulk of the



remainder lived on farm sites.  Agriculture, then, is the primary source of



income for the population area that includes Halsey.  The principal crop of



the area is seed grasses, largely domestic ryegrass.






Halsey's economic reason for being is the service it renders as a depot and



secondary commercial and service center for the surrounding agricultural



area.  A seed warehouse located in Halsey is one of the largest in the



Willamette Valley and the town's principal employer.  Service employment is



provided by a farm equipment store, three small grocery stores, a hardware



store, a building supply store, a bank, a printer who supplies a weekly



newspaper, offices of the telephone and water districts, two restaurants,



two garages, a wrecking yard, two service stations, and an eight-grade



elementary school.  About forty persons are employed in service occupations,



twice the number employed by the seed warehouse.






ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010



The Economic Base



Given the type of agricultural economy that supports Halsey, there is  no



reason to anticipate decided growth in the future.  The area about Halsey



has neither markets nor resources to attract industrial emplacements.   There



are no recreational resources to exploit.  Albany to the north and Eugene to



the south are close enough to preclude measurable development of commercial



and service activities.

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Population growth in near-by areas and the often depressed market for the




seed grasses grown about Halsey could logically result in development of a




more diversified agricultural base, with greater emphasis on dairying and




vegetable crops.  Such a development would require increased capitalization




of farms for irrigation and farm equipment; but it is most unlikely that




this, would result in either the creation of a food processing industry or




an expanded market for farm labor, due to the nearness of established




processing facilities and the increasing productivity of farm labor.




Population




In the past, Halsey!s population has grown only in periods of exceptional




expansion for the State of Oregon.  If the decades 1900-1910 and 1940-1950




are excepted, the town's experience since 1880 has been one of population




decline.  The rate of population growth from 1950-1960 was only half that




of Linn County, and about a quarter of that of the State of Oregon.  In the




absence of an economic rationale for accelerated population growth, one




must assume that Halsey will continue to lag behind the rest of the state.




The inertia of biological forces and some spillover of the growth anticipated




in urban areas of Lane and Linn counties may, however, be sufficient to




arrest the declining trend of Halsey's population.  Assuming that population




in the mid-Willamette Basin will expand vigorously in the periods 1960-1985




and 1985-2010, it would appear logical to assign a portion of that growth to




Halsey.  Applying, somewhat arbitrarily, a population growth factor of .4%




(based on the relation of Halsey's expansion during the last decade to that




of the mid-Willamette, but with the modifying assumption that population

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growth will be somewhat slower  in relation to the rest of the basin during




the study period)  supplies  a population projection, for design purposes only,




of 475 persons in 1985, 500 in  2010.

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