WORKING PAPER NO. 28 COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT For Water Supply and Water Quality Management HALSEY, OREGON PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010 DATE: August 14, 1962 Prepared by RLC Reviewed by Approved by DISTRIBUTION Project Staff Cooperating Agencies General U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE Public Health Service Region IX Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control Room 570 Pittock Block Portland 5, Oregon ------- This working paper contain* preliminary data and information primarily intended for internal uae by the Columbia ftivar Baain Project ataff and cooperating agenciea. The material preaented in thia paper haa not been fully evaluated ami ahould not be conaidered aa final.. ------- HALSEY, OREGON PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 1960-2010 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose of Analysis 1 Definition of the Area 1 Study Period 1 Limitations of this Analysis 1 PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1 Population 1 The Present Industrial Pattern 2 ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010 2 The Economic Base 2 Population 3 Prepared by: Economic Studies Group Water Supply and Pollution Control Program, Pacific Northwest August 14, 1962 ------- C-l HALSEY, OREGON PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010 INTRODUCTION Purpose of Analysis This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic potentials and a broad guide to the anticipated growth of the subject area. Definition of the Area The study is limited to the town of Halsey and the immediately adjacent area. Study Period The 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point at 1980, is being used by this office in its economic studies of the Columbia Basin as a whole, and the same period is used for this analysis. Limitations of this Analysis This is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook for the Halsey area. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia Basin Study, an analysis will be made, on an industry-by-industry basis, of the growth potential of the central Willamette Basin. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if necessary. PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Population The population of Halsey, according to the 1960 census, was 404. The total area of the town is less than one square mile, and the population area is equivalent to the boundaries of the township, the immediate countryside being entirely rural. ------- C-2 The Present Industrial Pattern Of the 3,375 persons living in the census division that included Halsey in 1960, 1,279 resided in two towns (Halsey and Brownsville), the bulk of the remainder lived on farm sites. Agriculture, then, is the primary source of income for the population area that includes Halsey. The principal crop of the area is seed grasses, largely domestic ryegrass. Halsey's economic reason for being is the service it renders as a depot and secondary commercial and service center for the surrounding agricultural area. A seed warehouse located in Halsey is one of the largest in the Willamette Valley and the town's principal employer. Service employment is provided by a farm equipment store, three small grocery stores, a hardware store, a building supply store, a bank, a printer who supplies a weekly newspaper, offices of the telephone and water districts, two restaurants, two garages, a wrecking yard, two service stations, and an eight-grade elementary school. About forty persons are employed in service occupations, twice the number employed by the seed warehouse. ESTIMATED GROWTH, 1960-2010 The Economic Base Given the type of agricultural economy that supports Halsey, there is no reason to anticipate decided growth in the future. The area about Halsey has neither markets nor resources to attract industrial emplacements. There are no recreational resources to exploit. Albany to the north and Eugene to the south are close enough to preclude measurable development of commercial and service activities. ------- C-3 Population growth in near-by areas and the often depressed market for the seed grasses grown about Halsey could logically result in development of a more diversified agricultural base, with greater emphasis on dairying and vegetable crops. Such a development would require increased capitalization of farms for irrigation and farm equipment; but it is most unlikely that this, would result in either the creation of a food processing industry or an expanded market for farm labor, due to the nearness of established processing facilities and the increasing productivity of farm labor. Population In the past, Halsey!s population has grown only in periods of exceptional expansion for the State of Oregon. If the decades 1900-1910 and 1940-1950 are excepted, the town's experience since 1880 has been one of population decline. The rate of population growth from 1950-1960 was only half that of Linn County, and about a quarter of that of the State of Oregon. In the absence of an economic rationale for accelerated population growth, one must assume that Halsey will continue to lag behind the rest of the state. The inertia of biological forces and some spillover of the growth anticipated in urban areas of Lane and Linn counties may, however, be sufficient to arrest the declining trend of Halsey's population. Assuming that population in the mid-Willamette Basin will expand vigorously in the periods 1960-1985 and 1985-2010, it would appear logical to assign a portion of that growth to Halsey. Applying, somewhat arbitrarily, a population growth factor of .4% (based on the relation of Halsey's expansion during the last decade to that of the mid-Willamette, but with the modifying assumption that population ------- 04 growth will be somewhat slower in relation to the rest of the basin during the study period) supplies a population projection, for design purposes only, of 475 persons in 1985, 500 in 2010. ------- |