WORKING PAPER NO. 27
                  COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
           For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
                 MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON)
               PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
                 AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE;  August 10, 1962

Prepared by   EES

Reviewed by 	

Approved by 	
 DISTRIBUTION;

 Project  Staff
 Cooperating Agencies

.General 	
        U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
                      Public Health Service
                            Region IX

         Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                     Room 570 Pittock Block
                        Portland 5, Oregon

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This working paper contain! preliminary data and information



primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River



Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies.  The material



presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and



should not be considered as final.

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           MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON)
          PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
           AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010
                   Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION                                     1

Purpose of This Analysis                         1

Definition of the Area                           1

Study Period                                     1

Limitations of This Analysis                     2


PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE                            2

Population                                       2

Industry                                         5

Agricultural Land Use                            9


ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH                         10

Factors Influencing Future Growth               10

Future Employment                               11

Future Population                               15
Prepared by:  Economic Studies Group
              Water Supply and Pollution Control
                      Program, Pacific Northwest
              August 1962

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                                                                      C-l
                     MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON)
                    PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
                     AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION

Purpose of This Analysis

This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic

potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.

Definition of the Area

The Willamette River Basin divides conveniently into three parts:   (1)

the Lower Portion, comprising the Portland Metropolitan Area (Clackamas,

Multnomah, and Washington Counties); (2) the Middle Portion, comprising

Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties; and (3) the Upper Portion,

comprising Lane County.  This report is an analysis of the economy of the

Middle Portion.


Physically, the western part of Benton County, comprising the Alsea River

drainage, lies outside the Willamette River Basin, draining directly into

the ocean.  However, because basic statistics are available on a county

basis, all of Benton County is included in the study area.  Since  the Alsea

portion of Benton County comprises less than one-half of one per cent of

Middle Willamette Basin population, no significant distortion is involved.

With this exception, the boundaries of the five-county area conform

approximately to the Willamette Basin boundaries.

Study Period

The study period is the SOTyear period 1960-^2010, with an interim point at

1985.

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                                                                      C-2






Limitations of This Analysis




Two limitations apply to this study.  The first is that it is intended only




as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's growth.




Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin Project for




Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be made on an




industry-by-industry basis of the growth potential in the various sub-basins.




At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if




necessary.






The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particularly in




assessing future water needs.  Emphasis has been placed on the analysis of




those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource.  Other




industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a significant




effect on future population.  For this reason, this study is not submitted




as a detailed industrial forecast.






PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE




Population




Total population in the five counties of the Middle Willamette Basin, as of




April 1960, was 278,000.  Table I shows how this population was distributed




among the cities and sub-basins of the Middle Basin in 1960, and also the




comparable figures for 1950.  The Middle Basin has boon divided among 15




"sub-basins."  One of these is the."Salem Urban Area," which includes not




only the City of Salem but also the built-up, but as yet unincorporated,




areas around it.  The 1950 figure for the "Salem Urban Area" is an estimate




of the population within the same boundaries used for the I960 definition.

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                                                                       03
                                   Table:I '
POPULATION, BY SUB-BASIN AND INCORPORATED PLACES^  MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASINS/
                                                             Estimated Pop'n.
                                       Population  of          of  Sub-Basin,
                                     Incorporated  Place      Nearest  thousand
Sub-Basin or Incorporated Place
SALEM URBAN AREA^/
  Salem city

WILLAMETTE MAIN STEM
  Albany
  Corvallis
  Dundee
  Harrisburg
  Independence
  Monmouth
  Newberg
  Sti Paul

YAMHILL
  Amity
  Carlton
  Dayton
  Lafayette
  McMinnville
  Sheridan
  Willamina
  Yamhill

PUDDINGS/
  Aurora
  Donald
  Gervais
  Hubbard
  Mt. Angel
  Scotts Mills
  Silverton
  Woodburn

NORTH SANTIAM
  Detroit
  Gates
  Idanha
  Lyons
  Mill City
  Stayton
 1930
43,140
   242
   187
   457
   493
 1,315
   217
 3,146
 2,395
   274
   422
   442
 1,792
 1,507
 1960
49,142
                         57
                         73
10,115
16,207
308
862
1,987
1,956
3,946
226
12,926
20,669
318
939
1,930
2,229
4,204
254
                         28
                         26
672
1,081
719
662
6,635
1,922
1,082
539
620
959
673
553
7,656
1,763
960
407
                         25
                         25
   274
   201
   438
   526
 1,428
   155
 3,081
 3,120
   206
   189
   295
   463
 1,289
 2,108
                         10
                                 (continued).

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                                                                        C-4
                              Table I (cont'd)
Sub-Basin or Incorporated Place

SOUTH SANTIAM
  Lebanon
  Scio
  Sweet Home
  Waterloo

SANTIAM, MAIN STEM BELOW FORKS
  Jefferson

MILL CREEK
  Aumsville
  Sublimity
  Turner

RICKREALL
  Dallas

LUCKIAMUTE
  Falls City

MARYS
  Philomath

CALAPOOYA
  Brovmsville
  Sodaville

MUDDY GREEKS''
  Halsey

LONG TOM£/
  Monroe

TUALATIN^

TOTAL, MIDDLS WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE

ALSEA RIVER DRAINAGE (COASTAL), BENTON COUNTY

TOTAL, 5 COUNTIES OF MIDDLE BASIN
                                       Population of
                                     Incorporated Place
Estimated Pop'n.
  of Sub-Basin,
Nearest thousand
1950

5,873
448
3,603
180

636

281
367
610

4,793

853

1,289

1,175
157

388

362

DRAINAGE
iN COUNTY

1960

5,858
441
3,353
151

716

300
490
770

5,072

653

1,359

875
145

404

374




1950
25




2

5



8

6

7

8


2

1

1
246
1
247
1960
26




2

6



8

5

8

8


1.5

1

1
277
1
278
a/ Includes Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties.
b/ Defined as the area included within the following 1960 Census County
Divisions:  Four Corners, Hayesville, Keizer,  Salem, and  Salem Heights.
c/ These figures include only that portion of  the basin within the 5-county
Middle Willamette Basin area.
d/ Unincorporated in 1950.  Figure shown is an estimate.

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                                                                       C-5






Industry




The economy of the Middle Basin is more diversified than that  of Lane  County.




Lumber and wood products manufacturing employment  constituted  55 per cent  of




the total labor force in the Middle Basin in 1960,  as  compared to  80 per cent




in Lane County.  Ten per cent of the Middle Basin  labor  force  is.in agricul-




ture, compared to about three per cent in Lane County.   Table  II shows




employment, by industry, in the Middle Basin in 1960,  with  comparable




figures for 1950, and the percentage distribution  of the total labor force.

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                                                                        06
                                   Table II
       EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 1950 and 1960s'
                                   Employment,     Change in      Distribution
                                     nearest      Employment,    of Employment,

Industry
Total Labor Force
Military
Unemployed
Industry not reported

Classifiable employed
  civilian labor force

Agriculture
Forestry and fisheries
Mining

Manufacturing, total
  Lumber, wood products
  Primary metals
  Fabricated metals
  Machinery, incl. electric
  All other durables
  Food and kindred
  Textiles and apparel
  Printing and publishing
  Pulp and paper
  Other non-durables and n.e.c,

Construction

Education, government
Education, non-government

Public administration

All other services
1950
941
2
61
12
866
165
2
3
199
136
1
1
4
3
23
4
11
10
6
64
51
8
46
328
1960
1,014
6
68
21
919
102
5
2
202
110
7
3
10
7
30
3
14
14
4
63
79
15
65
386
1950-1960,
 hundreds
per cent-
   +73
   + 4
   + 7
   + 9
   +53

   -63
   + 3
   - 1

   + 3
   -26
   + 6
   + 2
   + 6
   + 4
   + 7
   - 1
   + 3
   + 4
   - 2

   - 1

   -:-28
   + 7

   +19

   +58
1950
100.0
.2
6.5
1.3
92.0
17.5
.2
.3
21.2
14.5
.1
.1
.5
.3
2.4
.5
1.1
1.0
.7
6.8
5.4
.9
4.8
34.9
1960
100.0
.6
6.7
2.1
90.6
10.1
.5
.2
19.9
10.9
.7
.3
1.0
.7
2.9
.3
1.4
1.3
.4
6.2
7.8
1.5
6.4
38.0
&/ Includes entire labor forrce of Benton, Linn, Marion, Folk and Yamhill
Counties.  Sf.uce employment figures axe not available on a less-than-county
basis, the AJ.cea (coastal drainage) portion of Benton County has not been
excluded.  However, the Alsea portion's population is less than 0.3% of total
5-county popx;lation, so that no significant distortion is introduced.
b/ Based on unrounded figures.

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                                                                        C-7






An indication of the economic base of the Middle Basin, that is, the type




and degree of specialization in its economy, can be drawn from a comparison




of the distribution of employment there with the distribution in the Portland




Region as a whole.  This is shown in Table III.  Like the Portland Region,




the Middle Basin has a high percentage of total manufacturing employment




in lumber and wood products, even though the concentration is less than in




the more highly specialized economy of Lane County.  The Middle Basin also




has some specialization in food processing, with 2.9 per cent of its labor




force in that industry, as compared to 2.6 per cent in the Portland Region




as a whole.  Aside from these two manufacturing activities (lumber and wood




products and food processing), the economic base of the Middle Basin depends




significantly on two service industries--education and public administration.




The concentration of employment in educational services is due to the




location within the Middle Basin of Oregon State University, at Corvallis;




Willamette University, at Salem; and Oregon College of Education, at




Monmouth.  The concentration of employment in public administration is due




to the location of the state capital at Salem.  In addition to lumber and




wood products and food manufacturing and education and public administration,




agriculture is an important part of the economic base of the Middle Basin.

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                                                                 C-8
                           Table III
             LABOR FORCE DISTRIBUTION, BY. INDUSTRY
    MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN AND PORTLAND REGION, APRIL 1960
                                       Middle
                                     Willamette      Portland
                                        Basin         Region
Industry                                  %
Total Labor Force
Military    ;
Unemployed
Industry not reported

Classifiable employed
  civilian labor force

Agriculture
Forestry and fisheries
Mining

Manufacturing, total
  Lumber, wood products
  Primary metals
  Fabricated mstals
  Machinery, incl. electric
  All other durables
  Food and kindred
  Textiles and apparel
  Printing and publishing
  Pulp and paper
  Other non-durables and n.e.c.

Construction

Education, government
Education. rum-government

Public Administration

All other services
100.0
.6
6.7
2.1
90.6
10.1
.5
.2
19.9
10.9
.7
.3
1.0
.7
2.9
.3
1.4
1.3
.4
6.2
7.8
1.5
6.4
38.0
100.0
.8
6.0-
2.4
90.8
6.6
.6
.2
22.9
11.1
.9
.7
1.6
1.5
2.6
.9
1.3
1.7
.6
5.9
4.9
1.0
4.4
44.3
Sourc-a:  U,S. Census of Population, April 1950

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                                                                      C-9


Agricultural Land Use

Table IV shows how the land in farms in the Middle Basin was divided among

the various uses in 1954 and 1959.  The type of use employing the greatest

number of acres is harvested cropland.  Total land in farms declined slightly

during the five-year period from 1954 to 1959.

                                 Table IV
       AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 1954 and 19592'
                             Thousands of Acres

       Type of Use                                1954            1959

       Land in farms, total                       1602            1540

       Cropland harvested                          699             679
       Cropland in fallow, etc.                     65              97

       Land used for pasture:
         Cropland uaed for pasture                 129             117
         Woodland used for pasture                 378             271
         Pasture land                              140             171

       Woodland                                    107             128

       Other (roads, house lots, etc.)              84              77
       Irrigated acres (included in
         above uses)                                91             100
       _£/ Ii.clud;2s all of Bent on, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties,

       Source:  U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959

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                                                                        C-10
The types of  crops raised on the "cropland harvested" acres in  1959 are

shown in Table V.

                                   Table V
     ACRES OF CROPLAND, BY TYPE OF CROP, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 19595'

                                                      Acres,
              Type of Crop                           Thousands

              Grains                                    247
              Field seeds                               248
              Hay                                        83
              Corn for feed                              16
              Sweet corn                                 12
              Mint for oil                               10
              Beans (snap)                                7
              Potatoes                                    2
              Broccoli                                    1
              Dry onions                                  1
              Carrots                                     1
              Hops                                        4
              Berries                                    11
              Orchards                                   34
              Misc. vegetables and other crops          	2

              Total, Cropland harvested                 679
              af Includes all of Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk
              and Yamhill Counties.

              Source:  U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959


ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH

Factors Influencing Future Growth

Future growth in the Middle Willamette Basin is likely to be built upon

the following factors:

(1) Agricultural production is expected to increase, due to increased

irrigation and increased productivity, and this will provide the resources

for an increase in food processing manufacturing.

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                                                                        C-ll






(2) More complete use can be made of the timber resource.  While it is not




anticipated that the total timber harvest will increase, diversification




of secondary manufacturing can increase the value of the products and also




offset declines in employment that might otherwise occur due to rising




labor productivity.  It is estimated that wood resources will permit




expansion of pulp and paper capacity to 1,100 tons per day by 1985 and




1,750 tons per day by 2010.  Capacity in 1960 was 650 tons per day.




(3) Education and public administration employment are expected to grow




at a somewhat faster rate than the population of the state during 1960-85




and at about the same rate as state population during 1985-2010.




(4) The nucleus of a primary metals industry is well established at Albany




and it is expected that this industry will grow in the future.




(5) As population and the local and regional markets increase, it is




expected that diversified "all other" manufacturing will increase during




the study period.  This category increased 4.2 per cent per year in




employment during the period 1950^60 and it is assumed that that rate will




continue during the study period.




Future Employment




On the basis of the preceding assumptions, Table VI shows an illustrative




distribution of future employment, by industry, in the Middle Basin.  It




should be emphasized that these are somewhat hypothetical figures, and




are presented in order to show how the labor force would grow if the changes




assumed do occur.

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                                                                            C-12
                                      Table VI
 ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION  OF FUTURE EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN
                                   Employment,  thousands
 Industry

 Agriculture
 Forestry,  fish.,  mining
 Manufacturing
  Lumber,  wood  products
  Primary  metals
  Food  and kindred
  Printing and  publishing
  Pulp,  paper & allied
  All other manufacturing

  TOTAL  MANUFACTURING

 iducation  and Public Admin.
x'otal, "Basic"  industries

Construction as 7, of Basic

Construction, employment

Total, Construction 4- Basic

All other services as % of
 Construction + Basic

All other Services, Employed

TOTAL, EMPLOYED CIVILIAN
  LABOR FORCE

Unemployed as % of Emp.C.L.F.
Unemployed, thousands

Military, thousands

Industry not reported as % of
 Employed Civilian L.F.
Industry not reported, thous.
1950
16.5
.5
13.6
.1
2.3
1.1
1.0
1.8
19.9
10.5
47.4
13%
6.4
53.8
61%
32.8
86.6
7.0%
6.1
.2
1.4%
1-2
1960
10.2
.7
11.0
.7
3.0
1.4
1.4
2.7
20.2
15.9
47.0
13%
6.3
53.3
72%
38.6
91.9
7.4%
6.8
.6
2.3%
2.1
1985
10
2
11
2
6
3
2
8
32
40
84
13%
11
95
92%
87
182
5.9%
11
2
1.7%
3
2010
10
4
11
4
11
5
3
21
55
68
137
13%
18
155
118%
183
338
5.9%
20
3
1.7%
6
                               Basis for Projection

                               No change in number
                               1950-60 rate—3.4%/yr.

                               No change in number
                               1950-60incr .--i-600/dec.
                               1950-60 rate--2.7%/yr.
                               1950-60 rate^-2.5%/yr.
                               Limits of resources
                               1950-60 rate--4,2%/yr.

                               Composite of above

                               For 1960-85, 3.7%=rate
                                of growth in this
                                group in U.S. during
                                1950-60; for 1985-
                                2010, 2.2%=prejected
                                rate of growth in
                                Oregon state pop.

                               Composite of above

                               Same ratio as  in '50
                                and '60
                               Rate of change in this
                                ratio in  U.S. during
                                1950-60, i.e.,1.070/yr.
                               Same as US rate in '60
                               1950-60incr.—+400/dec.
                               Ave.ratio for '50&'60
TOTAL LABOR FORCE
94.1   101.4   198
367

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                                                                        C-13






On the basis of existing information, it is difficult to anticipate the future




composition of the labor force of the Middle Basin in more detail than that




given in Table VI.  However, as an indication of where growth might be expected




to occur, the distribution of the labor force in the Middle Basin in 1960 is




compared with that in the Lower Willamette Basin, the Shenandoah Valley, and




the United States as a whole, in Table VII.  The Shenandoah was selected as




being a valley with comparable dimensions in a more mature area.  While it




should not be assumed that the employment distribution in a relatively small




s'.-ea such as the Middle Willamette Basin will ever be the same as the distri-




bution in any other discrete area or in the U.S. as a whole, it is nevertheless




noteworthy that employment in the Middle Willamette Basin is far below propor-




tionate employment in the U.S. in the following categories:  all durable goods




manufacturing except lumber and wood products; textiles and apparel and .




chemical manufacturing; and military.

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                                                                          C-14
                                    Table VII
        COMPARATIVE DISTRIBUTION. OF LABOR :,FORCE, BY  INDUSTRY, APRIL  1960
                          (Per  cent of;: Total: Labor^Fp.rce)
Industry

Agri culture
Forestry, fish., mining
Manufacturing, Total
  Lumber , wood products
  Primary metals
  Fabricated metals
  Machinery , .n.onrelectr ic
  F.lectric machinery
  Cther durab les^'
  I'cod and kindred
  V.'exti.les
  Apparel ' and fab . textiles
  Print ing-\ anid' publishing
  Chemicals  '
  .Other non-dur. and n.e. c.-='

Construction
Emp. Civilian Labor Forc^

Unemployed

Military

Total Labor Force
  Middle
Willamette
 Basin !§/

  10.1
    .7
  19.9
  10.9
    .7
    .3
    .7
    .3
    .7
   2.9
    .2
    ,1
   1.4
    .1
   1.6S/

   6.2

  53.7

  92_. 7

   6.7

    .6

 100.0
 . Lower
Willamette
 Basing/

   3.0
    .4
  19.6
   3.3
   1.3
   1.4
   1.6
   1.4
   2.5
   2.8
    .7
    .9
   1.6
    .5
   1.6S/

   5.9

  65.6

  94.5

   5.0

    .5

 100.0
Shenandoah
 Valley .£/

   15t8
     .8
   27.7
    2.3
     .2
     .8
     .8
     .8
    2.2
    4.6
    2.2
    4.5
     .8
    7-P
    1.3

    8.1

   42.6

   95.0

    4.8

     .2

  100.0
United
States

  6.1
  1.0
 25.1
  1.6
  1.8
  1.8
  2.2
  2.1
  4.5
  2.6
  1.4
  1.7
  1.7
  1.2
  5.5

 54.8

 92,5

  5.0

  2.5

100.0
al Includes all of Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties.
b/ Includes all of Clackamas, Multnomab and Washington Counties.
c/ Includes all of Augusta, Clarke, Frederick, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and
Warren Counties.                                      •-..-,
d/ Includes motor vehicles and equipment; other transportation  equipment,  including
ship building and repair; cement, pottery, glass, concrete, gypsum,, plaster,  stone,
and structural clay and their products; professional and photographic equipment and
supplies; and watches and clocks.  : j                       .
&l Included in the 1.6% in the Middle Willamette Basin are 1.3% in  pulp and paper.
Included in the 1.67» in the Lower Willamette Basin are 1.3% in  pulp and paper.
fj Includes pulp and paper and their products, petroleum refining,  footwear,  and
petroleum, coal, tobacco, rubber and •leather products.  Also in this total is the
"not elsewhere classified" manufactur-ingjA.a. smaljL miscellaneous category.
£/ Includes "industry not reported" category:, representing about 2  or 3 per cent
of the labor force.

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                                                                        C-15






Future Population




Two methods were used to arrive at an estimate of Middle Willamette Basin




population in 1985 and 2010.  One method was to allocate to the various basins




of Oregon the population forecast for the state in terms of national population




trends, assuming that past trends in relative growth and in resource develop1-




ment would continue.  The other method was to examine the growth trends within




the Middle Basin, including the industries basic to that area and the relation-




ships between the basic and service industries in the Middle Basin, and to




extend those trends into the future.  Both of these methods yielded approx-




imately the same result, which suggests not so much that these figures are




reliable forecasts of future population as that they are reasonable figures




to use for design purposes.  The figures are 530,000 for 1985 and 980,000 for




2010.  In using the first method of estimating, mentioned above, it was




assumed that Oregon population would be 3.05 million in 1985 and 5.26 million




in 2010.  In using the second method of estimating, it was assumed that the




labor force, as projected in Table VI, would represent 37.4 per cent of the




population, the average ratio for the years 1940, 1950 and 1960.






An estimated allocation of Middle Basin population among the various sub-basins




is necessary for design purposes.  Predictions of future population of such a




small area as a sub-basin could be made with more confidence after detailed




economic base studies of the areas concerned.  Such studies are not available at




this time.  However, an illustrative and hypothetical distribution of population




which may be adequate for certain design purposes and which is based on what




are regarded as reasonable assumptions is given in Table VIII.  The assumptions




underlying this table are as follows:

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                                                                        016






1.  Inasmuch as the projected rate of increase for the entire Middle Basin




during the period 1960-2010 is about twice the growth rate during 1950-60, it




is assumed that all parts of the Middle Basin will participate to some extent




in the population growth.  However, it is assumed that those sub-basins which




grew more rapidly than others during 1950-60 will continue to have above^average




growth, and that those which increased at a lower-than-average rate or declined




in population will continue to lag behind the Middle Basin average rate of




growth.






2.  Because of the increased rate of growth projected for the entire Basin,




it is assumed that sub-basins which declined in population during 1950-60




will not have a further population decline but will stabilize at about the




1960 level during the 1960-70 decade and then begin to participate in the




Basin's over-all growth.  If it is assumed that growth in these areas after  1970




will be at about half the rate for the entire Middle Basin, the growth rate  for




1960-85 would average 0.8% per year and for 1985^-2010 1.2% per year.  These




rates have been used in Table VIII for the Yamhill, North Santiam, Luckiamute




and Muddy Creek sub-basins, which experienced a population decline during




1950-60.






3.  It is assumed that those sub-basins which had no population change or




which grew at a rate of less than 0.5% per year during 1950-60 will grow




during 1960-2010 at a rate equal to half the Basin average, 1.3% per year




during 1960-85 and 1.2% during 1985^2010.  This rate has been used in Table  VIII




for the Pudding, South Santiam, Santiam Main Stem, Rickreall, Calapooya,




Long Tom, Tualatin and Alsea sub-basins.

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                                                                        C-17






4.  It is assumed that those sub-basins which grew during 1950-60 at rates




above the 1950-60 Basin average but substantially below the Basin average




rate projected for 1960-2010 will increase their rates of growth sufficiently




to equal the rate projected for the Basin as a whole, 2.6% for 1960-85 and




2.5% for 1985-2010.  These rates have been used in Table VIII for Mill Creek




and Marys sub-basins.






5.  The remainder of projected Middle Basin population has been assigned to




the Salem Urban Area and the Willamette Main Stem.  The Salem Urban Area had




77 thousand population in 1960, compared with 73 thousand in the area defined




as the Willamette Main Stem.  However, the latter grew slightly more rapidly




than the Salem Urban Area during 1950-60.  It is assumed that that relative




trend will continue and that by 2010 the populations of the two areas will




be about equal.






In Table VIII, the estimated 1985 and 2010 population of each sub-basin is




given not only in thousands of population but also in terms of the growth




factor which that population would represent over the 1960 population.






Until detailed economic studies are made of specific cities within the




Middle Basin, it may also be assumed that the cities in each sub-basin will




grow at about the same rate as the sub-basin in which they are located.  On




this basis, the growth factors in Table VIII may also be applied to the




individual cities in each sub-basin.

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                                                                        C-18
                                   Table VIII
ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATED FUTURE MIDDLE  WILLAMETTE BASIN POPULATION;
                   GROWTH FACTORS BY SUB-BASIN,  1985  and  2010
   Sub-Basin

   Salem Urban Area^'

   Willamette Main Stem

   Yamhill

   Pudding-''

   North Santiam

   South Santiam

   Santiam, main stem

   Mill Creek

   Rickreall

   Luckiamute

   Marys

   Calapooya

   Muddy Creek^/

   Long Torn^'

   Tualatin^/

   Alsea
1985
Population,
thousands
178
174
32
35
11
36
3
11
11
6
15
11
2
1.5
1.5
1.5
Multiple
of 1960
Population
2.3
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.2
1,9
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
2010
Population,
thousands
363
364
43
47
15
49
. 4
20
15
8
28
15
3
2
2
2
Multiple
of 1960
Population
4.7
5.0
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.9
2.0
3.3
1.9
1.6
3.5
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
   a/  For definition,  see  footnote  to Table I.
   b_/  These figures  include only the portion of the sub-basin within the
   boundaries  of the 5-county area  defined as the Middle Willamette Basin.

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