WORKING PAPER NO. 27 COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT For Water Supply and Water Quality Management MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON) PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010 DATE; August 10, 1962 Prepared by EES Reviewed by Approved by DISTRIBUTION; Project Staff Cooperating Agencies .General U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE Public Health Service Region IX Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control Room 570 Pittock Block Portland 5, Oregon ------- This working paper contain! preliminary data and information primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and should not be considered as final. ------- MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON) PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose of This Analysis 1 Definition of the Area 1 Study Period 1 Limitations of This Analysis 2 PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2 Population 2 Industry 5 Agricultural Land Use 9 ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 10 Factors Influencing Future Growth 10 Future Employment 11 Future Population 15 Prepared by: Economic Studies Group Water Supply and Pollution Control Program, Pacific Northwest August 1962 ------- C-l MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN (OREGON) PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010 INTRODUCTION Purpose of This Analysis This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area. Definition of the Area The Willamette River Basin divides conveniently into three parts: (1) the Lower Portion, comprising the Portland Metropolitan Area (Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington Counties); (2) the Middle Portion, comprising Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties; and (3) the Upper Portion, comprising Lane County. This report is an analysis of the economy of the Middle Portion. Physically, the western part of Benton County, comprising the Alsea River drainage, lies outside the Willamette River Basin, draining directly into the ocean. However, because basic statistics are available on a county basis, all of Benton County is included in the study area. Since the Alsea portion of Benton County comprises less than one-half of one per cent of Middle Willamette Basin population, no significant distortion is involved. With this exception, the boundaries of the five-county area conform approximately to the Willamette Basin boundaries. Study Period The study period is the SOTyear period 1960-^2010, with an interim point at 1985. ------- C-2 Limitations of This Analysis Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is intended only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be made on an industry-by-industry basis of the growth potential in the various sub-basins. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if necessary. The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particularly in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the analysis of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource. Other industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a significant effect on future population. For this reason, this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE Population Total population in the five counties of the Middle Willamette Basin, as of April 1960, was 278,000. Table I shows how this population was distributed among the cities and sub-basins of the Middle Basin in 1960, and also the comparable figures for 1950. The Middle Basin has boon divided among 15 "sub-basins." One of these is the."Salem Urban Area," which includes not only the City of Salem but also the built-up, but as yet unincorporated, areas around it. The 1950 figure for the "Salem Urban Area" is an estimate of the population within the same boundaries used for the I960 definition. ------- 03 Table:I ' POPULATION, BY SUB-BASIN AND INCORPORATED PLACES^ MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASINS/ Estimated Pop'n. Population of of Sub-Basin, Incorporated Place Nearest thousand Sub-Basin or Incorporated Place SALEM URBAN AREA^/ Salem city WILLAMETTE MAIN STEM Albany Corvallis Dundee Harrisburg Independence Monmouth Newberg Sti Paul YAMHILL Amity Carlton Dayton Lafayette McMinnville Sheridan Willamina Yamhill PUDDINGS/ Aurora Donald Gervais Hubbard Mt. Angel Scotts Mills Silverton Woodburn NORTH SANTIAM Detroit Gates Idanha Lyons Mill City Stayton 1930 43,140 242 187 457 493 1,315 217 3,146 2,395 274 422 442 1,792 1,507 1960 49,142 57 73 10,115 16,207 308 862 1,987 1,956 3,946 226 12,926 20,669 318 939 1,930 2,229 4,204 254 28 26 672 1,081 719 662 6,635 1,922 1,082 539 620 959 673 553 7,656 1,763 960 407 25 25 274 201 438 526 1,428 155 3,081 3,120 206 189 295 463 1,289 2,108 10 (continued). ------- C-4 Table I (cont'd) Sub-Basin or Incorporated Place SOUTH SANTIAM Lebanon Scio Sweet Home Waterloo SANTIAM, MAIN STEM BELOW FORKS Jefferson MILL CREEK Aumsville Sublimity Turner RICKREALL Dallas LUCKIAMUTE Falls City MARYS Philomath CALAPOOYA Brovmsville Sodaville MUDDY GREEKS'' Halsey LONG TOM£/ Monroe TUALATIN^ TOTAL, MIDDLS WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE ALSEA RIVER DRAINAGE (COASTAL), BENTON COUNTY TOTAL, 5 COUNTIES OF MIDDLE BASIN Population of Incorporated Place Estimated Pop'n. of Sub-Basin, Nearest thousand 1950 5,873 448 3,603 180 636 281 367 610 4,793 853 1,289 1,175 157 388 362 DRAINAGE iN COUNTY 1960 5,858 441 3,353 151 716 300 490 770 5,072 653 1,359 875 145 404 374 1950 25 2 5 8 6 7 8 2 1 1 246 1 247 1960 26 2 6 8 5 8 8 1.5 1 1 277 1 278 a/ Includes Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties. b/ Defined as the area included within the following 1960 Census County Divisions: Four Corners, Hayesville, Keizer, Salem, and Salem Heights. c/ These figures include only that portion of the basin within the 5-county Middle Willamette Basin area. d/ Unincorporated in 1950. Figure shown is an estimate. ------- C-5 Industry The economy of the Middle Basin is more diversified than that of Lane County. Lumber and wood products manufacturing employment constituted 55 per cent of the total labor force in the Middle Basin in 1960, as compared to 80 per cent in Lane County. Ten per cent of the Middle Basin labor force is.in agricul- ture, compared to about three per cent in Lane County. Table II shows employment, by industry, in the Middle Basin in 1960, with comparable figures for 1950, and the percentage distribution of the total labor force. ------- 06 Table II EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 1950 and 1960s' Employment, Change in Distribution nearest Employment, of Employment, Industry Total Labor Force Military Unemployed Industry not reported Classifiable employed civilian labor force Agriculture Forestry and fisheries Mining Manufacturing, total Lumber, wood products Primary metals Fabricated metals Machinery, incl. electric All other durables Food and kindred Textiles and apparel Printing and publishing Pulp and paper Other non-durables and n.e.c, Construction Education, government Education, non-government Public administration All other services 1950 941 2 61 12 866 165 2 3 199 136 1 1 4 3 23 4 11 10 6 64 51 8 46 328 1960 1,014 6 68 21 919 102 5 2 202 110 7 3 10 7 30 3 14 14 4 63 79 15 65 386 1950-1960, hundreds per cent- +73 + 4 + 7 + 9 +53 -63 + 3 - 1 + 3 -26 + 6 + 2 + 6 + 4 + 7 - 1 + 3 + 4 - 2 - 1 -:-28 + 7 +19 +58 1950 100.0 .2 6.5 1.3 92.0 17.5 .2 .3 21.2 14.5 .1 .1 .5 .3 2.4 .5 1.1 1.0 .7 6.8 5.4 .9 4.8 34.9 1960 100.0 .6 6.7 2.1 90.6 10.1 .5 .2 19.9 10.9 .7 .3 1.0 .7 2.9 .3 1.4 1.3 .4 6.2 7.8 1.5 6.4 38.0 &/ Includes entire labor forrce of Benton, Linn, Marion, Folk and Yamhill Counties. Sf.uce employment figures axe not available on a less-than-county basis, the AJ.cea (coastal drainage) portion of Benton County has not been excluded. However, the Alsea portion's population is less than 0.3% of total 5-county popx;lation, so that no significant distortion is introduced. b/ Based on unrounded figures. ------- C-7 An indication of the economic base of the Middle Basin, that is, the type and degree of specialization in its economy, can be drawn from a comparison of the distribution of employment there with the distribution in the Portland Region as a whole. This is shown in Table III. Like the Portland Region, the Middle Basin has a high percentage of total manufacturing employment in lumber and wood products, even though the concentration is less than in the more highly specialized economy of Lane County. The Middle Basin also has some specialization in food processing, with 2.9 per cent of its labor force in that industry, as compared to 2.6 per cent in the Portland Region as a whole. Aside from these two manufacturing activities (lumber and wood products and food processing), the economic base of the Middle Basin depends significantly on two service industries--education and public administration. The concentration of employment in educational services is due to the location within the Middle Basin of Oregon State University, at Corvallis; Willamette University, at Salem; and Oregon College of Education, at Monmouth. The concentration of employment in public administration is due to the location of the state capital at Salem. In addition to lumber and wood products and food manufacturing and education and public administration, agriculture is an important part of the economic base of the Middle Basin. ------- C-8 Table III LABOR FORCE DISTRIBUTION, BY. INDUSTRY MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN AND PORTLAND REGION, APRIL 1960 Middle Willamette Portland Basin Region Industry % Total Labor Force Military ; Unemployed Industry not reported Classifiable employed civilian labor force Agriculture Forestry and fisheries Mining Manufacturing, total Lumber, wood products Primary metals Fabricated mstals Machinery, incl. electric All other durables Food and kindred Textiles and apparel Printing and publishing Pulp and paper Other non-durables and n.e.c. Construction Education, government Education. rum-government Public Administration All other services 100.0 .6 6.7 2.1 90.6 10.1 .5 .2 19.9 10.9 .7 .3 1.0 .7 2.9 .3 1.4 1.3 .4 6.2 7.8 1.5 6.4 38.0 100.0 .8 6.0- 2.4 90.8 6.6 .6 .2 22.9 11.1 .9 .7 1.6 1.5 2.6 .9 1.3 1.7 .6 5.9 4.9 1.0 4.4 44.3 Sourc-a: U,S. Census of Population, April 1950 ------- C-9 Agricultural Land Use Table IV shows how the land in farms in the Middle Basin was divided among the various uses in 1954 and 1959. The type of use employing the greatest number of acres is harvested cropland. Total land in farms declined slightly during the five-year period from 1954 to 1959. Table IV AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 1954 and 19592' Thousands of Acres Type of Use 1954 1959 Land in farms, total 1602 1540 Cropland harvested 699 679 Cropland in fallow, etc. 65 97 Land used for pasture: Cropland uaed for pasture 129 117 Woodland used for pasture 378 271 Pasture land 140 171 Woodland 107 128 Other (roads, house lots, etc.) 84 77 Irrigated acres (included in above uses) 91 100 _£/ Ii.clud;2s all of Bent on, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties, Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959 ------- C-10 The types of crops raised on the "cropland harvested" acres in 1959 are shown in Table V. Table V ACRES OF CROPLAND, BY TYPE OF CROP, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN, 19595' Acres, Type of Crop Thousands Grains 247 Field seeds 248 Hay 83 Corn for feed 16 Sweet corn 12 Mint for oil 10 Beans (snap) 7 Potatoes 2 Broccoli 1 Dry onions 1 Carrots 1 Hops 4 Berries 11 Orchards 34 Misc. vegetables and other crops 2 Total, Cropland harvested 679 af Includes all of Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties. Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959 ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH Factors Influencing Future Growth Future growth in the Middle Willamette Basin is likely to be built upon the following factors: (1) Agricultural production is expected to increase, due to increased irrigation and increased productivity, and this will provide the resources for an increase in food processing manufacturing. ------- C-ll (2) More complete use can be made of the timber resource. While it is not anticipated that the total timber harvest will increase, diversification of secondary manufacturing can increase the value of the products and also offset declines in employment that might otherwise occur due to rising labor productivity. It is estimated that wood resources will permit expansion of pulp and paper capacity to 1,100 tons per day by 1985 and 1,750 tons per day by 2010. Capacity in 1960 was 650 tons per day. (3) Education and public administration employment are expected to grow at a somewhat faster rate than the population of the state during 1960-85 and at about the same rate as state population during 1985-2010. (4) The nucleus of a primary metals industry is well established at Albany and it is expected that this industry will grow in the future. (5) As population and the local and regional markets increase, it is expected that diversified "all other" manufacturing will increase during the study period. This category increased 4.2 per cent per year in employment during the period 1950^60 and it is assumed that that rate will continue during the study period. Future Employment On the basis of the preceding assumptions, Table VI shows an illustrative distribution of future employment, by industry, in the Middle Basin. It should be emphasized that these are somewhat hypothetical figures, and are presented in order to show how the labor force would grow if the changes assumed do occur. ------- C-12 Table VI ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF FUTURE EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN Employment, thousands Industry Agriculture Forestry, fish., mining Manufacturing Lumber, wood products Primary metals Food and kindred Printing and publishing Pulp, paper & allied All other manufacturing TOTAL MANUFACTURING iducation and Public Admin. x'otal, "Basic" industries Construction as 7, of Basic Construction, employment Total, Construction 4- Basic All other services as % of Construction + Basic All other Services, Employed TOTAL, EMPLOYED CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Unemployed as % of Emp.C.L.F. Unemployed, thousands Military, thousands Industry not reported as % of Employed Civilian L.F. Industry not reported, thous. 1950 16.5 .5 13.6 .1 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.8 19.9 10.5 47.4 13% 6.4 53.8 61% 32.8 86.6 7.0% 6.1 .2 1.4% 1-2 1960 10.2 .7 11.0 .7 3.0 1.4 1.4 2.7 20.2 15.9 47.0 13% 6.3 53.3 72% 38.6 91.9 7.4% 6.8 .6 2.3% 2.1 1985 10 2 11 2 6 3 2 8 32 40 84 13% 11 95 92% 87 182 5.9% 11 2 1.7% 3 2010 10 4 11 4 11 5 3 21 55 68 137 13% 18 155 118% 183 338 5.9% 20 3 1.7% 6 Basis for Projection No change in number 1950-60 rate—3.4%/yr. No change in number 1950-60incr .--i-600/dec. 1950-60 rate--2.7%/yr. 1950-60 rate^-2.5%/yr. Limits of resources 1950-60 rate--4,2%/yr. Composite of above For 1960-85, 3.7%=rate of growth in this group in U.S. during 1950-60; for 1985- 2010, 2.2%=prejected rate of growth in Oregon state pop. Composite of above Same ratio as in '50 and '60 Rate of change in this ratio in U.S. during 1950-60, i.e.,1.070/yr. Same as US rate in '60 1950-60incr.—+400/dec. Ave.ratio for '50&'60 TOTAL LABOR FORCE 94.1 101.4 198 367 ------- C-13 On the basis of existing information, it is difficult to anticipate the future composition of the labor force of the Middle Basin in more detail than that given in Table VI. However, as an indication of where growth might be expected to occur, the distribution of the labor force in the Middle Basin in 1960 is compared with that in the Lower Willamette Basin, the Shenandoah Valley, and the United States as a whole, in Table VII. The Shenandoah was selected as being a valley with comparable dimensions in a more mature area. While it should not be assumed that the employment distribution in a relatively small s'.-ea such as the Middle Willamette Basin will ever be the same as the distri- bution in any other discrete area or in the U.S. as a whole, it is nevertheless noteworthy that employment in the Middle Willamette Basin is far below propor- tionate employment in the U.S. in the following categories: all durable goods manufacturing except lumber and wood products; textiles and apparel and . chemical manufacturing; and military. ------- C-14 Table VII COMPARATIVE DISTRIBUTION. OF LABOR :,FORCE, BY INDUSTRY, APRIL 1960 (Per cent of;: Total: Labor^Fp.rce) Industry Agri culture Forestry, fish., mining Manufacturing, Total Lumber , wood products Primary metals Fabricated metals Machinery , .n.onrelectr ic F.lectric machinery Cther durab les^' I'cod and kindred V.'exti.les Apparel ' and fab . textiles Print ing-\ anid' publishing Chemicals ' .Other non-dur. and n.e. c.-=' Construction Emp. Civilian Labor Forc^ Unemployed Military Total Labor Force Middle Willamette Basin !§/ 10.1 .7 19.9 10.9 .7 .3 .7 .3 .7 2.9 .2 ,1 1.4 .1 1.6S/ 6.2 53.7 92_. 7 6.7 .6 100.0 . Lower Willamette Basing/ 3.0 .4 19.6 3.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.5 2.8 .7 .9 1.6 .5 1.6S/ 5.9 65.6 94.5 5.0 .5 100.0 Shenandoah Valley .£/ 15t8 .8 27.7 2.3 .2 .8 .8 .8 2.2 4.6 2.2 4.5 .8 7-P 1.3 8.1 42.6 95.0 4.8 .2 100.0 United States 6.1 1.0 25.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 4.5 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 5.5 54.8 92,5 5.0 2.5 100.0 al Includes all of Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties. b/ Includes all of Clackamas, Multnomab and Washington Counties. c/ Includes all of Augusta, Clarke, Frederick, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Warren Counties. •-..-, d/ Includes motor vehicles and equipment; other transportation equipment, including ship building and repair; cement, pottery, glass, concrete, gypsum,, plaster, stone, and structural clay and their products; professional and photographic equipment and supplies; and watches and clocks. : j . &l Included in the 1.6% in the Middle Willamette Basin are 1.3% in pulp and paper. Included in the 1.67» in the Lower Willamette Basin are 1.3% in pulp and paper. fj Includes pulp and paper and their products, petroleum refining, footwear, and petroleum, coal, tobacco, rubber and •leather products. Also in this total is the "not elsewhere classified" manufactur-ingjA.a. smaljL miscellaneous category. £/ Includes "industry not reported" category:, representing about 2 or 3 per cent of the labor force. ------- C-15 Future Population Two methods were used to arrive at an estimate of Middle Willamette Basin population in 1985 and 2010. One method was to allocate to the various basins of Oregon the population forecast for the state in terms of national population trends, assuming that past trends in relative growth and in resource develop1- ment would continue. The other method was to examine the growth trends within the Middle Basin, including the industries basic to that area and the relation- ships between the basic and service industries in the Middle Basin, and to extend those trends into the future. Both of these methods yielded approx- imately the same result, which suggests not so much that these figures are reliable forecasts of future population as that they are reasonable figures to use for design purposes. The figures are 530,000 for 1985 and 980,000 for 2010. In using the first method of estimating, mentioned above, it was assumed that Oregon population would be 3.05 million in 1985 and 5.26 million in 2010. In using the second method of estimating, it was assumed that the labor force, as projected in Table VI, would represent 37.4 per cent of the population, the average ratio for the years 1940, 1950 and 1960. An estimated allocation of Middle Basin population among the various sub-basins is necessary for design purposes. Predictions of future population of such a small area as a sub-basin could be made with more confidence after detailed economic base studies of the areas concerned. Such studies are not available at this time. However, an illustrative and hypothetical distribution of population which may be adequate for certain design purposes and which is based on what are regarded as reasonable assumptions is given in Table VIII. The assumptions underlying this table are as follows: ------- 016 1. Inasmuch as the projected rate of increase for the entire Middle Basin during the period 1960-2010 is about twice the growth rate during 1950-60, it is assumed that all parts of the Middle Basin will participate to some extent in the population growth. However, it is assumed that those sub-basins which grew more rapidly than others during 1950-60 will continue to have above^average growth, and that those which increased at a lower-than-average rate or declined in population will continue to lag behind the Middle Basin average rate of growth. 2. Because of the increased rate of growth projected for the entire Basin, it is assumed that sub-basins which declined in population during 1950-60 will not have a further population decline but will stabilize at about the 1960 level during the 1960-70 decade and then begin to participate in the Basin's over-all growth. If it is assumed that growth in these areas after 1970 will be at about half the rate for the entire Middle Basin, the growth rate for 1960-85 would average 0.8% per year and for 1985^-2010 1.2% per year. These rates have been used in Table VIII for the Yamhill, North Santiam, Luckiamute and Muddy Creek sub-basins, which experienced a population decline during 1950-60. 3. It is assumed that those sub-basins which had no population change or which grew at a rate of less than 0.5% per year during 1950-60 will grow during 1960-2010 at a rate equal to half the Basin average, 1.3% per year during 1960-85 and 1.2% during 1985^2010. This rate has been used in Table VIII for the Pudding, South Santiam, Santiam Main Stem, Rickreall, Calapooya, Long Tom, Tualatin and Alsea sub-basins. ------- C-17 4. It is assumed that those sub-basins which grew during 1950-60 at rates above the 1950-60 Basin average but substantially below the Basin average rate projected for 1960-2010 will increase their rates of growth sufficiently to equal the rate projected for the Basin as a whole, 2.6% for 1960-85 and 2.5% for 1985-2010. These rates have been used in Table VIII for Mill Creek and Marys sub-basins. 5. The remainder of projected Middle Basin population has been assigned to the Salem Urban Area and the Willamette Main Stem. The Salem Urban Area had 77 thousand population in 1960, compared with 73 thousand in the area defined as the Willamette Main Stem. However, the latter grew slightly more rapidly than the Salem Urban Area during 1950-60. It is assumed that that relative trend will continue and that by 2010 the populations of the two areas will be about equal. In Table VIII, the estimated 1985 and 2010 population of each sub-basin is given not only in thousands of population but also in terms of the growth factor which that population would represent over the 1960 population. Until detailed economic studies are made of specific cities within the Middle Basin, it may also be assumed that the cities in each sub-basin will grow at about the same rate as the sub-basin in which they are located. On this basis, the growth factors in Table VIII may also be applied to the individual cities in each sub-basin. ------- C-18 Table VIII ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATED FUTURE MIDDLE WILLAMETTE BASIN POPULATION; GROWTH FACTORS BY SUB-BASIN, 1985 and 2010 Sub-Basin Salem Urban Area^' Willamette Main Stem Yamhill Pudding-'' North Santiam South Santiam Santiam, main stem Mill Creek Rickreall Luckiamute Marys Calapooya Muddy Creek^/ Long Torn^' Tualatin^/ Alsea 1985 Population, thousands 178 174 32 35 11 36 3 11 11 6 15 11 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Multiple of 1960 Population 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 1,9 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 2010 Population, thousands 363 364 43 47 15 49 . 4 20 15 8 28 15 3 2 2 2 Multiple of 1960 Population 4.7 5.0 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.6 3.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 a/ For definition, see footnote to Table I. b_/ These figures include only the portion of the sub-basin within the boundaries of the 5-county area defined as the Middle Willamette Basin. ------- |