COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
FOR WATER SUPPLY AND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT
WILLAPA RIVER BASIN (WASHINGTON)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH,1960-2010
March 29, 1963
A JOINT REPORT
STATE OF WASHINGTON
DEPT. OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
OLYMPIA, WASHINGTON
U. S. DEPT. OF THE INTERIOR
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
U. S. DEPT. OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
DIV. OF WATER SUPPLY AND POLLUTION CONTROL
PORTLAND, OREGON
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WILLAPA RIVER BASIN (WASHINGTON)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH,1960-2010
Table of Contents
SUMMARY
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Purpose of this Analysis 1
B. Definition of the Area 1
C. Study Period 1
D. Limitations of this Analysis 1
i
E. Participating Agencies 2
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
A, Population 2
->
B„ Industry 3
III. GROWTH POTENTIALS AND FORECAST 8
A. Factors Influencing Future
Growth 8
B. Estimate Future Growth 12
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SUMMARY
1. The Willapa River Basin had a population of almost 9,000 in 1960,
about 5,000 of whom were in the Basin's two incorporated places, Raymond
and South Bend. The Basin's economy is largely dependent upon lumber and
wood products manufacturing, fisheries, and food processing, particularly
oysters from Willapa Bay. (See attached Economic Base Report prepared
jointly by the U. S. Public Health Service, U. S. Bureau of Reclamation
and the State of Washington.) The population in the Basin as a whole, as
well as of each of the two cities, declined during 1950-60, despite the
growth of Washington state population at a rate slightly greater than the
national average.
2. An examination of the factors likely to influence future growth
in the area, does not suggest a strong growth trend except to the'extent
that the possible availability of industrial plant sites in the study area
is a significant factor. Based on further utilization of the area's timber
resource and improved irrigation in the Basin, it is forecast that a ply- • .
wood mill and an increase in food processing will occur. In addition,
recreation and tourism, as well as a ^rend toward urbanization, are antici-
pated to increase the size of the two major communities in the Basin and
also result in the Basin increasing its percentage of total county-population.
Such growth would be reflected by an increase in the Basin's population from
9.0 thousand in 1960 to 10.7 thousand in 1985, and 13.0 thousand in 2010.
Population in the two incorporated places is projected to increase from 5.0
thousand in 1960 to 6.4 thousand in 1985 and 8.5 thousand in 2010. Popula-
tion in Pacific County is projected to increase from 14.7 thousand in 1960
to 17 thousand in 1985 and 20 thousand in 2010. For purposes of comparison
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it can be noted that the projection for the county is the equivalent of an
average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent a year while U. S. Census Bureau
forecasts (Series II) indicate a growth rate in excess of 2 percent a year
for Washington State.
3. In addition to the forecast summarized above, the Washington State
Department of Commerce and Economic Development has indicated several types
of industries which might consider locating in the study area based on the
possible availability of plant sites. Because of the wide variety of these
developments and the likelihood that some of them might be based on unusual
circumstances such as the discovery of petroleum or the installation of
defense or space vehicle facilities, no specific forecast of these possi-
bilities has been made. For this reason the forecasts which are included
in this report .should be considered as a base to which can be added the
inonrement of industry and population that is indicated by the assurances
available from local or state agencies having special knowledge or responsi-
bility concerning such potential development of industrial sites in the
study area. The evaluation of the importance of these hypothetical potentials
should include consideration of the value of providing water supplies in
advance of need as a possible developmental factor of importance to the
growth of the area.
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WILLAPA RIVER BASIN (WASHINGTON)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH,1960-2010
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Purpose of this Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide ant;.:.estimate of the economic poten-
tials and anticipated growth of the subject area as guidance in examining water
supply and water quality needs.
B. Definition of the Area
The area drained by the Willapa River lies entirely within the northern
portion of Pacific County, Washington. For purposes of this study, the Willapa
Basin is defined as the,area comprised by 1960 Pacific County Census Divisions
2,3, and "Raymond". This is the area within the dotted line shown on the
attached map (Figure 1), and conforms closely to the actual physical drainage
basin. Because the Willapa Basin includes over half of total county population
(61 percent in 1960) and because employment statistics are available only for
the county as a whole, data are presented in this study, where practicable, for
both the Willapa Basin and for Pacific County as a whole.
C. Study Period
The study period is the ,50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1985.
D. Limitations of this Analysis
This study is intended for use particularly in assessing future water
needs, in relation to a proposed water control project in the Willapa Basin.
Emphasis has been placed on the consideration of those industries which make
heavy demands upon the water resource. Other industries have been considered
only insofar as they may have a significant effect on future population. For
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these reasons, this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
E. Participating Agencies
This study has been prepared jointly by the U. S. Public Health Service
(Pacific Northwest Water Supply and Pollution Control Office); the Washington
State Department of Commerce and Economic Development; and the U. S. Bureau of
Reclamation.
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
A. Population
The population of the Willapa Basin in 1960 was about 9,000. About
5,000 were in the Basin's two incorporated places, Raymond and South Bend. As
shown in Table I, the Willapa Basin and the two cities and the unincorporated
area comprising it all declined in population from 1950 to 1960. The popula-
tion of the remainder of the county and its incorporated places also declined
during the decade. Where data for 1940 are available, it appears that there
was a slight increase in population from 1940 to 1950 in some parts of the
county, but population in 1960 was generally below that of 1940.
TABLE I
POPULATION OF PACIFIC COUNTY, WASHINGTON, AND THE WILLAPA BASIN
1950 AND 1960 ,
BY INCORPORATED AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS
Area 1950 'SJ 1960 &
Willapa Basin, Total 10.382 8.962
South Bend 1,857 1,671
Raymond 4,110 3,301
Unincorporated area 4,415 3,990
Remainder of County, Total 6.176 5,712
Long Beach 783 665
Ilwaco 628 518
Unincorporated area. 4,765 4,529
Pacific County, Total 16,558 14,674
&l As of April 1 of year shown.
Source: U. S. Census of Population.
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B. Industry
The economy of Pacific County, particularly the portion of it identi-
fied as the Willapa Basin, is heavily dependent upon two resources: timber
and the Willapa Bay fisheries. In the southern part of the county, mainly out-
side the Willapa Basin, tourism and recreation are important to the economic
base. Table II shows the employment distribution by industry in the whole
county. Table III describes the principal manufacturing firms in the Basin.
In 1960, sixty percent of all manufacturing employment was in lumber and wood
products. More than half of this employment was in one plant, that of the
Weyerhaeuser Company at Raymond. Of the remaining employment in manufacturing,
nearly all was in food processing, a large part of which was connected with the
oyster industry at South Bend.
Table II reveals the decline in the economic base of Pacific County
during the 1950-60 decade which was associated with the population decline
mentioned in the previous section. Employment in many of the industrial cate-
gories, and particularly in two of the basic industries, (fisheries and lumber
and wood products manufacturing) declined substantially during the decade.
Agricultural employment also declined considerably, but this was partly due
to consolidation of farms and increased labor productivity as part of a national
trend. There was some increase in food and kindred manufacturing. Employment
also increased in some of the service categories, which is in line with national
trends.
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TABLE II
EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, PACIFIC COUNTY
Industry 1950 -/ I960 -
Agriculture 518 332
Forestry and fisheries 376 211
Mining 79
Manufacturing, total 2,344 1,779
Lumber,wood prod., furn. & fix. • 1,754 1,074
All other durables 53 41
Food and kindred 476 600
Printing and publishing 57 42
All other non-durables, and misc. 4 22
*'
Construction 306 301
R. R. transp. 36 . 25
Trucking and warehousing 65 72
Other transp. (shipping, docks,etc.) 179 123
Communications and utilities 113 152
Wholesale trade 106 70'
Retail trade 749 667
Fin.,Ins. ,R.E., Bus. & repair serv. 218 146
Personal serv.,enter., & recreation 297 329
Education 200 315
Medical, hosp. other prof; and related 161 278
Public administration 193 179
•Industry not reported 154 92
Employed Civilian Labor Force, Total 6,022 5,080
Military 28 72
Unemployed 376 358
TOTAL LABOR FORCE 6,426 5,510
TOTAL POPULATION, PACIFIC COUNTY 16,558 14,674
Percent of Total Population in Labor Force 38.81 37.5%
&!' As of April 1 of year shown.
Source: U. S. Census of Population
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TABLE III
PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN THE WILLAPA BASIN
Name of Firm
Raymond:
Dennis Company
Elk Prairie Timber Co.
Olympic Hardwood Co.
• Weyerhaeuser Company
Willapa Cedar Sales
South Bend:
Coast Oyster Company
Minks Oyster Company
New Washington Oyster Sales
Palix Oyster Company
Sedy Bros. Lumber Company
South Bend Shingle Company
Willapa Logging Company
Woodward Logging Company
Product
Carbonated beverages
Studs, ties
Lumber, studs
Lumber
Shakes, shingles
Seafood
Seafood
Seafood
Seafood
Shingles, shakes
Cedar products
Logs
Logs
Employment ~
20-49
20-49
100-199
500-999
50-99
100-249
10=19
20-49
20-49
10-19
10-19
10-19
10-19
b/
a/ Normal employment is within range shown.
b_/ Peak employment was in range 250-499.
Source: Directory of Washington State Manufacturers, 1961, Washington State
Department of Commerce and Economic Development.
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The decline in the economic base is also reflected in figures on water-
borne commerce in Willapa Bay for the 1950-60 decade. Total tonnage, both in
vessels and rafted, declined from 934,000 tons in 1951 to 450,000 tons in 1960."
Total seafood landings have also declined during recent years, both in tonnage
2/
and dollar value. ~
Table IV, by comparing the employment distribution in Pacific County
with that in the Seattle Region and the United States, emphasizes the dominant
importance of fisheries, lumber and wood products manufacturing, and food pro~
cessing to the county's economy. The table also reveals some possible special-
ization in the "other transportation" category, which represents dock work and
3/
water transport in connection with seafood and lumber. ~
\l In 1960, the principal products handled in Willapa Bay by waterborne
commerce were shellfish and rafted logs, in local movements, and 73,000 tons
of lumber in coastwise trade. Waterborne Commerce of the U. S., 1960, Corps
of Engineers, p. 86.
2/ Total pounds of oysters, crabs, shrimps, salmon and clams landed in Willapa
Bay in 1958 was 12.3 million, which had declined to 8.3 million pounds in 1961.
The dollar value declined from $1.7 million in 1958 to $1.4 million in 1961.
Washington State Dept. of Fisheries, Annual Yearbook reports.
3/ Ibid I/
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TABLE IV
COMPARATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE, BY INDUSTRY
AS OF APRIL 1, 1960
PACIFIC COUNTY, SEATTLE REGION, AND UNITED STATES
(As Percent of Total Labor Force)
Industry Pacific Cty. Seattle Region -/ U-S.
Agriculture > '6.0 4.5 6.1
Forestry and fisheries 3.8 .5 ;1
Mining .2 .1 .9
Manufacturing, Total 32.3 24.1 25.1
Lumber, wood prod., furn. & fix. 19.5 570 1.5
All other durables ' .7 11.3 12.6
Food and kindred 10.9 2.6 2.6
Printing and publishing .8 ' 1-3 1.6
All other non-durables and misc. .4 3.9 6.8
Construction 5.5 5.8 5.5
R. R. transp. .5 1.1 1.3
Trucking and warehousing 1.3 1.2 1.3
Other transp.(shipping, docks, etc.) 2.2 2.0 1.3
Communications and utilities 2.8 2.3 2.5
Wholesale trade 1.3 3.7 3.2
Retail trade 12.1 13.5 13.7
Fin.,Ins.,R.E., Bus. & repair serv. 2.6 6.0 6.2
Personal serv., enter. & recreation 6.0 5.5 6.2
Education-' 5.7 5.2 4.8
Med.,hosp.,other prof, and related 5.0 6.3 . 6.0
Public administration 3.2 4.7 4.6
Industry not reported 1.7 2.6 3.7
Employed Civilian Labor Force 92.2 89.1 92.5
Military 1.3 4.6 2.5
Unemployed 6.5 6.3 5.0
TOTAL LABOR FORCE 100.0 100.0 100.0
a/ Defined as Washington State.less 5 counties in southwestern Washington
(in the Portland Region) and 15 counties•in eastern Washington (in the
Spokane Region).
Source: U. S. Census of Population
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III. GROWTH POTENTIALS AND FORECAST
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth
1. Lumber and wood products
About 83 percent of Pacific County timber is privately owned, with
Weyerhaeuser, Crown Zellerbach and Rayonier holding the majority of this private
timber. ~ In addition to the lumber mill operated by Weyerhaeuser at Raymond,
•their timber resources appear to be adequate for the establishment of a plywood
mill, probably in the same vicinity, and it is assumed here that such a mill
will be added during the study period. Weyerhaeuser has recently constructed a
400 ton-per-day sulfite pulp facility at Cosmopolis, about twenty miles north
of Raymond. Rayonier's Pacific County resources are directed towards its 320
ton-per-day sulfite pulp mill at Hoquiam, only about 25 miles away by major
highway. Crown Zellerbach's Pacific County timber is brought out via Cathlamet
and thence to its various mills in the region. When a Crown Zellerbach pulp and
paper mill being built at Wauna, across the Columbia from Cathlamet, is completed,
it is likely that Pacific County timber will be used there. Because so much of
the county's timber is thus committed to use in existing modern plants in adjacent
areas, it appears unlikely that further .major; ; expansion will occur in the
Willapa Basin in this industry, other than the plywood plant already mentioned.
This pattern is further strengthened by the historical trend in the pulp in-
dustry towards increasing plant size and enlarging the capacity of existing
installations. This trend reduces the likelihood of a small pulp plant being
established in the area to utilize the relatively limited uncommitted chippable
resources.
\l Unpublished study by the Washington State Department of Commerce and
Economic Development, January 1963.
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2. Fisheries
The reasons for the decline in the landings of oysters and other
seafood referred to above have not been established at this time. It is assumed
here that the decline in the Willapa Bay fishery will not continue, but that
landings and employment in the industry will maintain about their present levels.
If this decline does not stop, an important segment of the economic base will
continue to erode, and the modest population growth projected in the following
section would not be likely to be achieved.
3. Agriculture
Some increase in agricultural production would be expected to re-
sult from construction of the proposed Bureau of Reclamation project in the
Willapa Basin. The agricultural economy of the area is predominantly dairying,
with some beef production. It is estimated that, with an adequate water supply
for irrigation, crop yields might double. — Dairying would continue as the
predominant farm type but dependable irrigation would permit some diversifica-
tion. — As far as employment in agriculture is concerned, it is assumed here
that, while improved irrigation might increase the incomes of farmers, no signi~
ficant increase in farm employment would result. At most, the declining trend
in farm employment might be halted.
4. Food processing
Since the principal raw materials used in the food processsing
industry in the Willapa Basin are oysters and other seafoods, and since it has
been assumed that total landings will remain about at their present level, no
increase is foreseen in employment in food processing. The increase in farm
_!/ U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, South Fork and Lower Willapa River Watershed,
Report of field inspection, April 1962, P. 7-8.
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production that would result from an adequate water supply for irrigation could
possibly lead to an increase in production of dairy products and possibly a
small increase in food processing employment.
5. Recreation and tourism
As population increases in western Oregon and western Washington,
the need for recreational facilities will become greater, and areas with recre-
ational potential, such as Pacific County, will be visited by larger numbers of
•people. The parts of the county likely to experience the major effects of this
increase in tourism lie outside the Willapa Basin, but some increases in service
industry employment in the Basin are anticipated. The Willapa Basin does have
hunting and steelhead fishing possibilities, and some small increase in service
industry employment could be butfit upon this. The completion of the bridge
across the Columbia at Astoria will make access easier from Highway 101 to the
Pacific County beaches. However, it should be pointed out that easier communi-
cation between Pacific County and the City of Astoria can also have a negative
effect on other types of service industry employment (entertainment, wholesale
_f j
trade, finance, insurance, etc.) since facilities in the larger city (Astoria)
may replace those in the heretofore more isolated places in Pacific County.
6. Other industries
The availability of a large plant site in the vicinity of Raymond
might also represent a significant factor influencing future growth. This site
is accessible to ocean-going vessels through a 26-foot channel and thus extends
the range of industrial possibilities to those for which water transportation
may be significant. An examination of comparable plant sites in western
Washington indicates that the availability of such sites is restricted.
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Attached to this report as Appendix A is a summary of an unpublished report of
the Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development which
summarizes the situation for large plant sites having deep water potential.
This report also indicates the types of industries which might consider locating
in the study area based on the availability of the plant site and other features
the area possesses.
B. Estimated Future Growth
The population history of Pacific County during the past two decades
contrasts sharply with that of the State,of Washington as a whole, as shown in
Table V. While the state's population was growing rapidly, at rates exceeding
the national average, Pacific County's population was growing only slightly or
declining. The examination of the factors likely to influence future growth
in the county, discussed in the previous section, does not suggest the possi-
bility of a strong growth trend; in the future, except to the extent that the
availability of industrial plant sites in the study area is a significant factor.
Because of the wide variety of developments that could be considered as a po-
tential and the likelihood that some types of development might be based on
unusual circumstances such as the discovery of petroleum or the installation
of defense or space vehicle facilities, it is not thought to be reasonable to
make a specific forecast of the type or size of such industrial potentials or
their impact on study area population. For this reason, the forecasts which
are included in this report should be considered as a base to which can be
added the increment of industry and population that is indicated by the assur-
ances available from local or state agencies having special knowledge or re-
sponsibility concerning such potential development of industrial sites in the
study area.
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These assurances would be those normally required by the construction
agency as a basis for including water requirements in a proposed project. The
determination of the need for such water requirements should include considera-
tion of the importance of having various facilities available to industrial
sites in advance of need. It should be recognized that the availability of such
basic features as water supply could have special importance as a developmental
factor to the growth of the area. It must also be recognized, however, that some
•types of industrial development might have an adverse effect on other water uses
or users and that the analysis of location factors should include the considera-
tion of these effects or the costs of overcoming them.
The 1960-85 and 1985 to 2010 growth rates for Washington State, shown
in Table V, are based upon a projection of national population by the U. S.
Bureau of the Census and an allocation of that national population among the
various states. — The projected rates for Pacific County represent a judgment
based upon the projected state rates of growth, relative growth in other areas
of the state, and the factors expected to influence growth in the county. These
projected rates for Pacific County are shown in Table V.
TABLE V
POPULATION GROWTH RATES IN PACIFIC COUNTY AND WASHINGTON STATE, 1940-60
AND PROJECTED RATES FOR 1960-85 AND 1985-2010
(Annual Compound Rates, Percent)
Area 1940-50 1950-60 1940-60 1960°85 1985°2010
Pacific County 0.4 Deer. Deer. 0.6 0.6
Washington State 3.2 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.1
\f The national projection used is Series II9 the higher of the two projections
now considered to be the most likely to eventuate. The allocation among the
states is based on Kerr Committee (U. S. Congress, March 1960) report number 5,
pp. 6,7 and 29.
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On the basis of the rates of growth assumed in Table V, estimates of
future population in Pacific County, the Willapa Basin, and the incorporated
portions of the Basin are shown in Table VI. These projections must be regarded
as illustrative and based more upon judgmental evaluations than upon quanti-
fiable factors. It has been assumed that the location of a plywood mill in the
vicinity of Raymond and the possible increase in food processing resulting from
•improved irrigation in the Willapa Basin will result in the Basin's increasing
its percentage of total county population, even though tourist and recreation
services in the southern part of the county experience growth. For the same
reasons, and also because of the pronounced trend toward urbanization through-
out the nation, it is assumed that the incorporated areas will increase as a
percentage of Basin population. The unincorporated portion of the Basin de-
i
clined less than the cities during 1950-60 and it is assumed that it will grow
less during the study period, thus maintaining a greater stability with less re-
sponse to new economic factors.
(Table VI on next page)
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TABLE VI
ESTIMATED FUTURE POPULATION OF PACIFIC COUNTY, THE WILLAPA BASIN
AND THE INCORPORATED PORTIONS OF THE WILLAPA BASIN,
1960-2010
Area Population or Percent
1950 1960 1985 2010
Pacific County, population 16,558 14,674 17,000 20,000
Willapa Basin as %
of Pacific County's population 63% 61% 63% 65%
Willapa Basin, population 10,382 8,962 10,700 13,000
Incorporated portion — of
Willapa Basin as % of
Willapa Basin's population 57% 55% 60% 65%
Incorporated portion —'of .
Willapa Basin, population 5,967 4,972 6,400 8,500
Unincorporated portion
of Willapa Basin, population 4,415 3,990 4,300 4,500
_!/ Includes Cities of Raymond and South Bend, which may grow by annexation
as suburban-.population density increases.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
In addition to the sources mentioned in footnotes on the preceding pages,
the following studies were also reviewed in connection with this study:
. Area Redevelopment Association, Pacific County. October 1962
Willapa Harbor Development Association, Pacific County, by N. H. Engle
and D. C. Hastings, Bureau of Business Research, University of
Washington, Seattle, March 1955.
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FIGURE 1'
WILLAPA BASIN and
PACIFIC COUNTY, WASHINGTON .
The Wiliana Basin, shown
inside the dashed line, is
defined as the area comprised
by 1960 County Census Divisions
2, 3, and "Raymond^1/
•V^M*P
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APPENDIX A
SUMMARY OF UNPUBLISHED REPORT OF THE WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONCERNING INDUSTRIAL SITES AND POTENTIALS
FEBRUARY 1963
Following is a general review of eight possible industrial sites in
western Washington having deep water potential:
1. Ferndale - slightly more than 500 acres with major drawback being
lack of rail.
2. Padilla Bay - over 500 acres but major development required.
3. Tulalip Indian Reservation - over 500 acres, but no rail and
difficult to get rail into the area.
4. Tacoma - well over 500 and 1,000 acres developed and presently
in extensive development program.
5. Grays Harbor - slightly over 500 acres, but major development
required.
6. Longview, Kalama, Woodland - slightly over 500 acres, minor rail
development required.
7. Vancouver = over 500 acres, but major development required.
8. Willapa Bay - Well over 1,000 acres, but major development and
channel development required.
With reference to the Willapa River area, it would appear that the avail-
ability of 5,000 acres of land, two major railroads, ample energy supply, as
well as industrial water from the dam project itself would be of more than
casual interest to industry in the market for a location.
While the types of industry which might consider locating in the area
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are almost endless, certainly the nine listed below would have more than average
likelihood.
1. Missile Space Industry 5. Industrial Chemical Industry
2. Aluminum Industry 6. Pulp Industry
3. Ferro Alloy Industry 7. Plywood Mill
4. Electrical Chemical Industry 8. Hardwood Sawmill & Plywood Mill
9. Refinery Industry
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