WORKING PAPER NO.  52
                 COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
        For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
                     BASIN COMPREHENSIVE REPORT
       BENTON,  KITTITAS,  AND YAKIMA COUNTIES,  WASHINGTON
            ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION
                        1960 - 2010
DATE;  December 1964               DISTRIBUTION;
Prepared by  EES                   Project Staff
Reviewed by 	             Cooperating Agencies

Approved by 	            General 	
       S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
                  Public Health Service
                        Region IX

      Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                     570 Pittock Block
                     Portland 5, Oregon

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               YAKIMA BASIN COMPREHENSIVE REPORT
        Beaton, Kittitas, and Yakima Counties, Washington

             ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION
                           1960 - 2010

                        TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                              Page
A.  The Economic Base Study Area	     1

B.  Present Economic Base and Population	     3

    1.  Economic Activities 	     3
    2.  Population  	    12

C.  Projected Economic Base and Population	    15

    1.  Future Increases in Output and Employment of
          Major Industries	    15
          a.  Summary	    15
          b.  Agriculture 	    15
          c.  Food Processing 	    20
          d.  Lumber and Wood Products 	    24
          e.  Coal Mining 	    25
          £.  Diversified Manufacturing 	    26
          g.  Service Industries 	    27
                                        -i
    2.  Future Labor Force 	    29
    3.  Estimated Future Population 	    29
          a.  Yakima 3-County Area	    29
          b.  Yakima Valley 	    32
          c.  Estimated Future Population in Incorporated
                 Places	    32
          d.  Estimated Future Population by Service Areas.    34

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                       LIST OF TABLES

 '                                                               Page

 1.   Labor Force,  by Industry Group,  Yakima 3-County Area,
       April 1960	     4

 2.   Comparative Distribution of Labor Force,  by Industry
       Group, April 1960 	     5

 3.   Land in Farms, by Type of Use, Yakima 3-County Area	     8

 4.   Irrigated Acreage in Yakima 3-County Area 	     9

 5.   Source of Water for Irrigated Acreage, Yakima 3-County
       Area, 1959  	     9

 6.   Acreage Harvested, By Principal  Crops, Yakima 3-County
       Area, 1959	    10

 7.   Livestock and Poultry on Farms,  Yakima 3-County Area,
       1954 and 1959 	    11

 8.   Population, by County and Incorporated Places, Yakima
       Valley Economic Area and 3-County Area	    13

 9.   Estimated Future Population of  the Yakima 3-County
       Area, and an Illustrative Distribution of the
       Future Labor Force, 1960 - 2010 	    31

1Q.   Illustrative  Projections of Future Population in
       Incorporated Places, Yakima Valley 	    35

11.   Projected Future Population in  the Yakima Valley,  by
       Service Areas	    36

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A.  The Economic Base Study Area

    Because most economic data are available only on a county

basis, a Yakima 3-County Area, defined to include all of Kittitas,

Yakima, and Benton Counties, is the primary area for economic

analysis.  This 3-County Area, however, includes a substantial part

of Benton County lying outside the agriculturally important portion

of the basin.  The intense agricultural development of the "Yakima

Valley" terminates just below Benton City.  But Benton County's

two largest cities and also the economically important Hanford

Atomic Works are in the remaining portion of the county below that

point.  For this reason, an economic study area called the Yakima

Valley has been delineated.  The Yakima Valley is defined to include

all of Kittitas and Yakima Counties-' plus Benton County's 1960

census divisions 12, 13, 14 and "Prosser!1.1  These Benton County

census divisions comprise the closest approximation, in terms of

available statistical units, to that part of the county within

the agricultural Yakima Valley.  Figure 1 shows the.location of

the Benton County census divisions included in the Yakima Valley,

as defined here.
I/ The political boundaries of Kittitas and Yakima Counties conform
closely to the topographic boundary of the physical basin.  A strip
of Kittitas County along the Columbia River and the southwestern corner
of Yakima County are outside the physical basin, but these areas are
undeveloped and almost uninhabited, so that no significant distortion
is introduced by using these county lines as the boundary of the area
for  economic analysis of the basin.

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                     FIGURE  1
YAKIMA VALLEY 'ECONOMIC  AREA AND  YAKIMA  3-COUNTY AREA
IN RELATION  TO  THE  AREA DRAINED  BY  THE  YAKIMA RIVER
                                         County Boundaries         ,

                                         Boundary of area drained
                                         by the Yakima River

                                         Portion of Benton County,
                                         comprising Census County
                                         Divisions 12, 13, I1*, and
                                         "Prosser", included  in the
                                         Yakima Valley Economic Area,
                                         which also includes  all of
                                         Kittitas and Yakima
                                         Counties.             -

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                                                                 "3

B.  Present Economic Base and Population

    1.  Economic Activities

  .  Employment, by industry, in the 3-County Area in 1960 is

shown in Table 1.  Table 2 shows the percent of the total labor force

in each industry group in the Yakima 3-County Area, and compares

that distribution with the Seattle Region and with the U. S. as a

whole.  An estimated distribution for the Yakima Valley is also

shown.  The difference between the employment pattern in the Yakima

Valley and the 3-County Area is mainly the result of the inclusion

in the latter of the Hanford Atomic Works and various industries

that have grown up as a result of it in Richland and Kennewick.

In the industrial classification, the Hanford Atomic Works, with
                                                           /
more than 6,000 employees, is classified as a "chemical" industry.

    The comparisons in Table 2 show that the economic base of the

Yakima Valley depends primarily upon specialization in agriculture

and food processing.  There is also more employment in trucking,

warehousing and wholesale trade than would be expected on the basis

of the employment pattern in the Seattle Region and in the U. S.

This is due to food-processing activities, and to the fact that the

city of Yakima acts as a collection and distribution center for a

somewhat larger area  than the three counties.  There is  also above

"normal" employment in education, resulting from the Central Washington

State  College  at Ellensburg and a junior college at Yakima.  The

larger than "normal"  employment in cpnstruction is not considered

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                                  TABLE I

      LABOR FORCE, BY INDUSTRY GROUP, YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA, APRIL 1960
      Industry Group
  Individual Counties        3-County
Benton Kittitas Yakima         Total
Agriculture
Forest management; fisheries
Mining

Manufacturing. Total
  Logging, lumber, wood pr.,furn.
  Primary & fabric, metals
  Machinery,  incl. electrical
  Other durable goods
  Food and kindred products
  Textiles and apparel
  Printing,' publishing, and allied
  Chemical and allied
  Other non-durables, & misc. mfrs.

Construction

Truck transp. and warehousing
R,R, & other  transportation
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Education
All other services0-'  .

Industry not  reported

Total Employed Civilian Labor
  Force
Military
Total Employed Labor Force
Unemployed

TOTAL LABOR FORCE
 1832    1224
    9      45
    3     110
          629
          269
           45
           20
           43
          195
            0
           53
            0
            4

          825

          142.
          154
          205
         1246
          938
         1617

          136
         7271
           24
         7295
          653
         7948
 2179

  189
  426
  311
 2770
 1239
 4605

  412
22072
  826
22898
 1561
24459
 3101

 1514
  689
 3051
 7472
 2491
11628

  773
49014
  281
49295
 5563
54858
 6105

 1845
 1269
 3567
11488
 4668
17850

 1321
78357
 1131
79488
 7777
87265
a/ More than  6000 of these employees were at the Hanford Atomic Works.
b>/ Includes 213 in  "Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products", according to Washington
State  covered employment data for April 1960.
£/ Includes communications and utilities; finance, insurance, real estate,
business  and  repair services; personal services, private household workers,
entertainment and recreation; professional and related services; and public
administration.
 Source:   U.  S.  Census of  Population,  1960.

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                                   TABLE 2

   COMPARATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE, BY INDUSTRY GROUP, APRIL 1960
                     (As Percent of Total Labor Force)
Industry Group
Yakima
Valley
  a/
3-County
  Area
    b/
Seattle
Region
  c/
                                                                    United
                                                                    States
Agriculture
Forest management; fisheries
Mining                       .

Manufacturing . Total
  Logging, lumber, wood pr. , furn.
  Primary and fabricated metals
  Machinery, incl. electrical
  Other durable goods
  Food and kindred products
  Textiles and apparel
  Printing, publishing and allied
  Chemical and allied
  Other non-durables, and misc. mfrs.

Construction

Truck transp. and warehousing
R.R. and other transportation
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Education
All other services!./

Industry not reported

Total Employed Civilian Labor Force

Military

Unemployed

TOTAL LABOR FORCE
                                      1.0
                                       .5
                                       .5
   6.3

   2.6
   1.3
   5^2
  13.9
   5.5
  21.2

   1.4
                              89
     6
    .5

   9.9
 100.0
   17.4
     .1
     .2

   17.0
    1.4
     .3
     .4
     .8
    3.8
     .4
  .  1-0
    8.5-'
     .4

    7.0

    2.1
    1.5
    4.1
   13.2
    5.3
   20.4

    1.5

   89.8

    1.3

    8.9

  100.0
                                                            4.5
                                                             .5
                                                             .1
            6.1
             .1
             .9
24.1
5.0
1.6
l-b
2.6
.6
1.3
1.1
2.2
25.1
1.5
3.6
4.4
4.6
2.6
3.1
1.6
1.2
2.5
  5.8

  1.2
  3.1
  3.7
 13.5
  5.2
 24.8

  2.6
 89.1
  4.6

  6.3

100.0
                                                                      5.5

                                                                      1.3
                                                                      2.6
                                                                      3.2
                                                                     13.7
                                                                      4.8
                                                                     25.5

                                                                      3.7
                                                                     92.5
                                                                      2.5

                                                                      5.0

                                                                    100.0
a/ Based on the distribution in Kittitas and Yakima Counties.  It is assumed
that the portion of Benton County included in the Yakima Valley has an
employment pattern similar to the other two counties.
b_/ Includes all of Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties.
c_/ Defined as Washington State, less 5 counties in southwestern Washington (in
the Portland Region) and 15 counties in eastern Washington (in the Spokane
Region.
d/ Includes the Boeing Co. at Seattle.
e/ Includes the Hanford Atomic Works.
f_/ See Table 1, note c.
Source:  U. S. Census of Population, 1960.

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to be part of the permanent economic base but to result principally

from unusual building activity in the area at the time of the 1960

census."

    Tables 3 through 7 provide data on the agricultural economy of

the Yakima 3-County Area.  Of the 526,000 acres of cropland harvested

in 1959, 345,000 were irrigated.  In addition to this cropland

irrigated, 113,000 more acres of .land in uses other than for crops

(pasture, etc.) were irrigated.  Most of the irrigation is provided

through organized irrigation districts rather than by on-farm sources.

The principal crops grown in the Yakima Basin are shown in Table 6.

With the exceptions of winter wheat and barley, nearly all crops are

grown only on irrigated land.  These provide the raw material for

the basin's important food-products manufacturing industry.  As

shown in Table 6, orchards are a major component in the agricultural

economy.  Livestock and poultry are also important in the basin.

Dairy, meat and poultry products from the Yakima Valley are shipped

to cities throughout the Northwest, particularly to the populous

Puget Sound area.  Table 7 shows the populations of the principal

domestic animals, by county.  From 1954 to 1959, there was some

decrease in the number of milk cows in the 3-County Area, but other

cattle increased.  There was a large increase, percentagewise, in

hogs and pigs from 1954 to 1959, and a small decrease in the number

of poultry.
I/ Construction activity at Wanapum Dam was near its peak in 1960,
while at Priest Rapids Dam final construction, including installa-
tion of generators, was still under way.  Employees at these two sites,
most of whom lived in Kittitas and Yakima Counties, would account for
much of the above-average employment in construction in the 3-County Area.

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    As can be seen from the acreage figures for each of the three counties,

shown in Table 6, the heart of the Yakima Valley is Yakima County.  Yakitna

County is the leading county in Washington State in value of farm products

sold.  It ranks first in the state in production of tree fruits, grapes,

sugar beets, vegetables, cattle, sheep, and turkeys.  It is also the lead-
                        '"                                    i      •
ing county in the Nation in production of apples, hops, and mint.i'
\J Yakima County Agriculture. Washington State Dept. of Agriculture, 1964,
p. 4.

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                             TABLE 3

                                                        a/
     LAND IN FARMS, BY TYPE OF USE, YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA-'

                     In Thousands of Acres
      Type of Use                             .1954            1959


Cropland harvested      .                        509            526
Cropland fallow, etc.                           199            215

Pasture:
  Cropland used for pasture                      74            102
  Woodland used for pasture                   .  418         -   ^99
  Pasture and range land                      .1098           1527°-'

Woodland                                         11             31

Other land in farms (roads, lots, etc.)         100            128

    TOTAL LAND IN FARMS                        2409           3028
a/ Includes all of Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties.

b/ Factors contributing to the large increase in "pasture and range
land" were:  (1) the opening up of a portion of the Yakima Firing
Range to grazing; (2) re-opening to grazing of parts of the Indian
reservation which had been closed because of over-grazing, but where
range grasses had become re-established; and (3) opening to grazing
of logged-off areas after grass had become established.

Source:  U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1959, Washington State volume,
           Table 1, page 142.

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                                TABLE 4

             IRRIGATED ACREAGE IN YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA-/
   Type of Land Use                         Acres Irrigated.  Thousands
                                                1954         1959
   Cropland irrigated                            323          345

   Other land irrigated (pasture, etc.)          109          113

       TOTAL IRRIGATED LAND                      432          45 &
  a/ Includes all of Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties.
  b_/ Of this total, 23,000 acres were irrigated by sprinkler only.

  Source:  U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1959, Table la.
                               TABLE 5
                                                                   a/
  SOURCE OF WATER FOR IRRIGATED ACREAGE, YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA, 1959-


       Source of Water                            Acres, Thousands
Ground water (source on farm) only                        6

Surface source (source on farm, not part of
  irrigation organization)                               19
Irrigation organization only                            370

Both farm ground water and farm surface water             2

Both irrigation organization and farm ground or farm
  surface water                                          61

TOTAL IRRIGATED ACREAGE, 1959                           458
a/ Includes all of Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties.

Source:  U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1959, Table la.

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                                                                          10
                                   TABLE  6

       ACREAGE HARVESTED,  BY PRINCIPAL  CROPS,  YAKIMA  3-COUNTY AREA,  1959

                             In  Thousands  of Acres

Type of Crop


Crops


Harvested


from

Individual Counties




Corn
Winter wheat
Spring wheat
.Oats
Barley
Beans, dry field and seed
Peas, dry field and seed
Hay
Hops
Potatoes
Sugar Beets
Asparagus
Sweet corn
Tomatoes
Green peas
Orchards & vineyards
Misc. & not classified
TOTAL

Benton


5.7
.9
2.5
.6
.7
1.1
.1
8.9
1.3
2.3
2.1
1.7
.3
,
.8
5.6
-^1
kO.3

Kittitas


.9
.3
5.^
5.9
1.9
-
.6
if 2. 8
-
1.3
.8
-
2.3
-
.3
.2
	 ._2
62.9


Irrigated Acreage

3~County
Total
Yakima


fr 1.5
A
9.0
2.0
' 6.1
-
.2
Mi. 9
17.0
*f. 5
Hf.it
10.2
8.1
1 .1
1.5
61 A
19.8
2^2.1


If8. 1
1.6
16.9
8.5
8.7
1.1
.9
96.6
18.3
8.1
17-3
11.9
10.7
1.1
2.6
67.2
25.7
3fr5-3
Total
Acreage,
Including
non-
irrigated,
3-County .
Total
1
^9.3
113.8
. 23.7
9.6
35.6
1.1
.9
IOfr.1
18.3
8.2
17.3
11.9
10.9
1.1
2.6
69.0
Jf8.fr
525.8
    Includes all of Benton,  Kittitas and Yakima Counties.
Source:  U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959,  Washington State volume,  Table Ha,
         page 206.

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                                                                      11
                                 TABLE 7

  LIVESTOCK & POULTRY ON FARMS, YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA, 1954 and 1959
                         Individual Counties
                   Benton
  Kittitas
Yakima
3-County
 Total
                 1954  1959    1954   1959  1954   1959  1954
                                     1959
  Milk cows      3630  2856

  Other cattle  19549 19958

  Hogs & pigs    3142  6272

  Chickens      57039 45110
 6132   4653  16882  12257   26644  19766

57364  59003 106574 119250  183487 198211

 1698   2167  14077  17197   18917  25636

45398  41975 238768 247418  341205 334503
Source:  U. S.  Census of Agriculture, 1959, County Table 8.

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    2..  Population


    The population of the Yakima Valley was about 177,000 in 1960,


and the population of the 3-County Area was about 228,000.  The


difference is due to the exclusion from the Yakima Valley of the


most populous parts of Benton County, as shown in Table 8.  Of the


177,000 in the Yakima Valley, 145,000 were in Yakima County.  Data

                                                                   i
are also presented in Table 8 for a'Yakima Urban Area", which includes


the suburban development surrounding the city of Yakima, as well as


the population within the incorporated limits of the city.  The


boundaries used for this Urban Area are described in footnote "b"


of Table 8.


    Population trends during the 1950-60 decade were as follows:


         Yakima County--Population increased about 10,000 during


the 1950-60 decade.   About half of this increase was within the


city of Yakima.  The rest of the growth was distributed among nine


other incorporated places in the county.  The population in the unin-


corporated area remained about constant, but this population is relatively


large, reflecting the importance of agriculture in the county.  The


average annual compound rate of growth during 1950-60 was 0.7 percent


in Yakima County, compared with 0.6 percent in the Yakima Basin, 0.8


percent in the 3-County Area, and 1.8 percent for Washington State

as a whole.

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                                                                       13
                                    TABLE 8
POPULATION, BY COUNTY AND INCORPORATED PLACES, YAKIMA VALLEY ECONOMIC AREA
                               AND 3-COUNTY AREA
   County or City
1940
1950
1960
KITTITAS COUNTY, TOTAL
Cle Elum
Ellensubrg
Kittitas
Ros lyn
South CleElum .
Unincorp orated—'
YAKIMA COUNTY, TOTAL
Yakima Urban Area J2/
Yakima City
Union Gap City .
Unincorporated suburban SJ
Grandview
Granger
Harrah
Mabton
Moxee City
Naehes
Selah
Sunnyside
Tieton
Toppenish
Wapato
Zillah a/
Unincorporated outside Yakima urban area —
BENTON COUNTY .TOTAL
BENTON COUNTY INSIDE YAKIMA VALLEY, TOTAL
Benton City
Prosser
West Richland .
Unincorporated portion of CCD's 12, 13, 14 -
TOTAL, YAKIMA VALLEY^/
BENTON COUNTY, OUTSIDE YAKIMA VALLEY, TOTAL
Kennewick '
Richland
Unincorporated
TOTAL, YAKIMA 3-COUNTY-. AREA £/
20230"
223U
5944
501
1743
n.a.
9812
99019
n.a.
27221
976
n.a.
1449
752
n.a.
485
335
536
1130
2368
n.a.
3683
1483
803
n.a.
12053
n.a.
n.a.
1719
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1918
n.a.
n.a.
131302
22235

8430
586
1537
442
9034
135723
60648
38486
1766
20396
2503
1164
297
831
543
633
2489
4194
620
5265
3185
911
52440
51370
8697
863
2636
n.a.
5198
166655
42673
10106
21809
10758
209328
20467
18ifa
8625
536
1283
383
7824
145112
65608
43284
2100
20224
3366
1424
284
958
499
. 680
2824
6208
479
5667
3137
1059
52919
62070
11631
1210
2763
1347
6311
177210
50439
14244
23548
12647
227649
£/  Includes all  unincorporated  areas  as  of year  shown,  including portions
    imarked "n.a.". (not  available)  which were  later  incorporated.
])/  Defined to include  Yakima County  1960 census  divisions  9,10,11,12,15,16,
     17,  18,19, and Yakima City.   Included within  these divisions are  the
     City of Union Gap and the unincorporated  communities of Fairview,
     Fruitvale, South Broadway and Sumach.
 c./  Includes all  of Kittitas  and Yakima Counties  and  Census County Divisions
     12,13,14 and  "Prosser" in Benton  County.
 d/  Includes all  of Kittitas, Yakima  and  Benton Counties.
 Source:   U. S. Census of Population,  1940, 1950,  1960, April  1.

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                                                                    14
         Kittitas County--Population declined about 8 percent during



the 1950-60 decade.  The ,city of Ellensburg, where the Central Washington



State College is located, grew slightly, but all other cities and the


unincorporated area declined in population.


         Benton County—All of the cities and also the unincorporated


areas increased in population during the 1950-60 decade.  The portion


within the Yakima River Basin increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent,



and the portion outside the .basin increased at an annual rate of 1.7


percent.

                                                                 I/
         Estimates of county population, as of July 1, 1964, are:~


                             April 1,'       July 1,     Average annual

 County                       1960           1964     Rate of Change. 7.



 Benton                       62070         66000           1.5



 Kittitas          •           20467         22000  '         1.8


 Yakima                      145112        147100           0.3



   TOTAL, 3-County Area      227649        235100           0.8
\J  Source for the July 1, 1964 estimates is Washington State Department

of  Health, Public Health  Statistics Section, Olympia, Wash., publication

PHS 9/29/64.

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                                                                       15


C.  Projected Economic Base and Population

    1.  Future Increases in Output and Employment of Major Industries

        a.  Summary

        The economy of the Yakima Valley is heavily dependent upon

agriculture and food processing, with some additional specialization in

lumber and wood products manufacturing, trucking, warehousing and whole-

saling, and education.  Future growth of the Valley's economy and popula-

tion will depend primarily upon expansion of these same industries.  The

only other growth factors foreseeable are the possibilities of increased

employment in services connected with recreation, the spillover effects

that would be felt from further development and diversification at Hanford,

the proposed development of coal mines near Cle Elum, and the stimulus

that might result if barge navigation on the Columbia River is extended

to Wenatchee.

        b.  Agriculture

        (1)  Agricultural acreage. It is assumed that there will be no

significant increase in total acreage, but that irrigated acreage will

increase slowly during the study period.-1  A rate of growth in irrigated

acreage of 0.2 percent per year has been adopted for this study.  This

corresponds to the rate of growth in irrigated cropland projected for

Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties for the period 1958-1975 by the Soil

                                       2/
and Water Conservation Needs Inventory.—  The 0.2 percent per year rate
I/ No  large  increase in irrigated acreage is expected, because water
rights on existing  irrigated acreage are inadequate for low-flow years.
Increases in available water would probably be used first to firm up
irrigation on present acreage.

2J This report was  published in April,  1962 by the Washington Conservation
Needs  Committee,  of which the  Soil Conservation  Service was chairman.   The
report projected  an increase in irrigated cropland of  about 17,000  acres  in
the  3-County Area from  1958 to 1975.

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                                                                       16


is slightly higher, though not far different, than the rate of growth in

irrigated acreage in the Yakima Basin projected in the CBIAC North Cascade

Mountains Study."   There appears to be ample irrigable acreage not yet

irrigated to allow for the increase at the rate adopted here, if water

                      2/
can be made available.—

        (2)  Domestic Animal Populations;  During recent years, there has

been a marked increase in cattle production in the Yakima Valley.  Most

of the production is in feed yards.  Cattle feeding is steadily growing

in importance.  In Yakima County alone, there are now about 125 feed lots,
                                     ,      _  3/  The data in Table 7 show
the largest number in any county in the state.-
that cattle (other than milk cows) in the 3-County Area increased from

183,487 in 1954 to 198,211 in  1959.  Historical data show that this is

part of a long-term trend. -   For purposes of this study, it is assumed

that cattle population in the  Yakima Valley will increase at about the

rate projected for the population of Washington State, or about 2.0 percent

    vear — /  That same rate of increase has also been assumed for hogs and

pigs, whose number in the 3-County Area increased substantially from 1954

to  1959.  In the case of poultry, an increase  in chicken population in

Yakima  County from 1954 to 1959 was more  than  offset by decreases in Benton

iy  CBIAC, North Cascade Mountains Study.  January 1964, Part II, section D,
page 4,  shows irrigated acreage  in  the Yakima  Basin of 498,000 acres in
1963, projected to reach 513,000 acres in 1985 and 528,000 acres in 2010.
This would represent an average annual rate of increase during the entire
period  of about 0.13 percent.

2J  According  to E. F. Eldridge, Return Irrigation Water, U.S.P.H.S., Portland,
Oregon, May  1, 1960, page 65,  the Yakima  Basin contains a potential of 621,000
irrigable acres.  On a  somewhat different basis of classification, the North
Cascade Mountains  Study referred to  in note 3  above  (Part II,- section D, page 2)
estimated that total irrigated and  potentially irrigable acreage in the
Yakima  Basin was 528,000 acres.  This was also the number of  acres which
that report estimated would be under actual irrigation by 2010.
3/  Yakima County Agriculture.  Washington  State Dept. of Agriculture, 1964, p. 54.
4/  Ibid., p. 55.
5/  Based upon projections of Washington State population adopted in May 1964
b"y  the  Economics Subcommittee  of CBIAC.

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                                                                         17
  and Kittitas Counties.  However, it is assumed that the recent increasing
  trend in Yakima County is likely to be dominant in. the future, due to the
  large population increases projected for the Northwest.  Poultry production
  will be encouraged not only by this increasing demand, but also by the
  fact that there is a good local supply of feed crops, and a dry climate.
  In addition to chickens, turkey production is now important in the Yakima
  Valley.  Yakima County turkey production increased 10 percent from 1954 to
  1959, and the county leads all counties in the state in turkeys raised.—'
  Competition from other parts of the country which specialize in poultry
  production may impede the growth of the industry.in the Yakima Valley,
.  and, for purposes of projection, it is assumed that poultry numbers in
  the Yakima Valley will increase at only half the rate expected  for
  State population, or at about 1.0 percent per year.  This also approximates
  the rate of increase in poultry production in Yakima County during 1954-
  59.  Dairy cows in the Yakima Valley have been decreasing in numbers in
  recent years.  However, the value of all dairy products sold in the 3-
  County Area increased from about $5.1 million in 1954 to about $5.3 million
  in 1959.  This was accomplished partly as a result of an increase in yields
  per cow.  In  the U. 'S. as a whole, the number of milk cows has declined
  about  1.8 percent per year since 1950, but the average yield per cow has
  increased about 2.5 percent per year, with total milk output increasing
  about  0.7 percent per year.—'  In the Yakima Valley, the decrease in
  number of milk cows shown in Table 7 was about 6 percent per year during
  \l Yakima County Agriculture, op. cit., p. 58.
  2/ Statistical Abstract of the U. S., U. S. Dept. of Commerce, 1963, p. 681.

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                                                                     18


1954-1959.  Increasing costs have made small dairy operations uneconomical

in the Yakima Valley.  However, the decline in milk cows appears now to have

halted with milk cow numbers levelling off at about the 1959 figure."   For

purposes of projection, it is    assumed in this report that future

improvements in yield per cow will be marginal, and that the number of

milk cows in the Yakima Valley will slowly increase, as a result of growing

population in the Valley itself and in the Northwest, at 0.5 percent per

year.  On the basis of the growth rates assumed above, animal populations

in the Yakima 3-County Area in the future would be as follows:

                                          1959      1985     2010

           Milk Cows                     19766     22500    25500
           Other Cattle                 198211    331700   544200
           Hogs and Pigs                 25636     42900    70400
           Chickens                     334503    433300   555600

        (3)  Agricultural productivity. Future increases in farm production

will result not only from some increase in acreage, but also from increases

in productivity per acre.  In the United States as a whole, productivity

per acre in recent decades on all cropland increased about 1.9 percent per
     I/
year.    Assuming that increase will continue, the increase in the Yakima

Basin in the future should at least equal that rate, and probably exceed

it, because of the possibilities of increasing the amount of irrigation

on acres at present receiving only partial irrigation.  It is assumed

here that average productivity per acre in the Yakima Basin will increase

at two percent per year during the study period.
I/ *_Yakima County Ag-Hrn'l<'iirel op. cit., p. 55.

2_/ This is the average annual rate of  increase in crop production per
acre during the period 1930-60, as shown in Statistical Abstract. 1962,
p. 643.

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                                                                 19

        (4)  Agricultural employment.  Employment in agriculture

in the United States during the last few decades has declined, not

only as a percent of the total labor force, but also in absolute

terms.  In the Yakima 3-County Area, however, this trend has been

less pronounced.  Agricultural employment there increased from

15,720 in 1940 to 17,403 in 1950, and then declined to 15,211 in

     I/
1960.    Bringing additional land under irrigation no doubt helped

maintain the number of persons working in agriculture.  The number

of farmers has also been increased by the Bureau of Reclamation's

law that 16Q acres is the maximum size of a single farmer's holding
                                   2/
of land receiving irrigation water.—   It is assumed here that the

160-acre legal requirement will continue in force.  Also tending to

maintain or increase the number of farmers in the future will be

an expected shift of acres into specialty crops, which require a

higher labor input per acre than hay or grains.  On the other hand,

working towards a decrease in agricultural employment is the long-

established trend of rising productivity per worker in agriculture.

It is assumed that this trend will continue, though at a slower

rate than in recent decades.  On balance, it is assumed that in

the Yakima Valley these factors will be roughly offsetting, so that
                                 i
employment in agriculture will remain about at its present level

during the study period.
\J All  of these figures are as of April 1st, and may to some extent
reflect variations in seasonal conditions among these years.

2_/ It is noteworthy that the average size of farm having irrigation
in 1959 was 150 acres in Benton County and 169 acres in Yakima County.
In Kittitas County, the average was 585 acres, a difference probably
 explained by  the  relatively greater  importance of wheat and hay  crops
 in Kittitas County.

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                                                              20
        c.  Food Processing




            (1)  Output.  On the basis of preceding assumptions, the




raw material for food processing in the Yakima Valley would increase




at about 2.2 percent per year (0.2 percent from increases in acreage,




and 2.0 percent from increases in productivity per acre).  Additional




increases are expected, as a result of diverting irrigated land




presently used for hay and grains to specialty crops to be used in




freezing and canning.  About 30 percent of total irrigated acreage




in the 3-County Area was in hay and 26 percent in grains in 1959.




Most food processing is based on fruits and vegetables, for which




only 37 percent of the irrigated acreage was used in 1959, as shown




in Table 6.  It is assumed that the combined effect of these factors




will be that the raw materials available for food processing, and the




output of food processing plants, in the Yakima Valley in 1985 will




be about double the 1960 level, and in 2010 about four times the 1960




level.  For purposes of this study, it is further assumed that this




same growth rate will apply to all crops now processed, so that the




relative proportions among the various food products will remain




the same in the future as at present.  It is assumed here that




the growth in food processing will represent expansion at or near




existing plants.  This assumption might have to be revised if river




barge navigation, is extended from Pasco to Wenatchee, in which case




there might be some advantages in locating plants along the Columbia




River.

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                                                             21

            (2)  Employment.  A number of factors make it particularly

difficult to estimate the future part of the labor force that will be

employed in food processing.  For example, a substantial part of

employment in food processing represents persons who enter the labor

force only for the short canning and packing season and then withdraw

from it.  There is a wide seasonal variation.  Another difficulty

arises from the fact that employment in food processing is composed

of two diverse elements.  One consists of the creameries, bakeries,

bottling works, etc. which serve the community itself.  This

employment is related to the size of the local population.  The

other, and in the case of the Yakima Valley, the larger, part of

food processing employment comprises the canning, freezing and

preserving of fruits and vegetables for export from the Valley, and

is related to the Y°lume of raw material available from the Valley's

orchards and cropland.  No precise allocation of the Valley's total

food-processing employment between these two groups is possible on

the basis of presently available data.-'  Taking all food processing

as a whole, employment in that industry in the Yakima 3-County Area

increased at about 5 percent per year during the period from 1940 to

1960.  The rate of increase was about-5.6 percent per year during
\J On the basis of employment data for manufacturing firms as reported
in the Directory of^Washington State Manufacturers. Wash. State Dept.
of Commerce and Economic Development, Olympiaf Wash., 1964, a rough
estimate can be made that about one-fourth of the employment in
food processing in the Yakima Valley is engaged in making products
for local use.

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                                                                22


1940-50 and abou. 4,6 percent per year during 1950-60.I/  This sub-

stantial increase in food processing was due, in large part, to the

increase in irrigation resulting from three new projects completed

during the 1940-60 period.—'  As indicated in the preceding section

on agricultural acreage, it is assumed that future increases in

irrigation will come at a slower rate.  In the preceding paragraph

it has been assumed that raw material from the Valley's orchards

and cropland would increase at a rate sufficient to enable food

processing output to double in the 25 years from 1960 to 1985 and

double again from 1985 to 2010.  This would represent an average

annual rate of increase of about 2.9 percent.  Employment will

increase less rapidly than that, however, due to rising-productivity

per employee.  The rate of increase in productivity per employee

will vary widely among different foods, processes, and plants.

During recent years, in the U. S. as a whole, output per employee

_!_/ Employment in food and kindred manufacturing in the Yakima 3-County
Area, as reported by the U. S. Census of Population for April 1st of
the year shown, increased as follows:

                         Employment         Annual Rate'of Increase. %
    County           1940   1950   19,60     1940-50  1950-60  1940-60

    Benton            125    185    423
    Kittitas          148    159    195
    .Yakima            932   1736   2657
    3-COUNTY TOTAL   1205   2080   3275         5.67»    4.6%    5.07»

2/ Projects completed in the Yakima Basin during the 1940-60 period
were the Wapato No. 2 Dam, in 1942; the Chandler Dam in 1956; and the
Roza Dam in '1958.

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                                                                 23

per hour in food manufacturing activities is estimated to have

increased at a rate of about 2.7 percent per year.—   If such a

productivity increase were assumed for the Yakitna Valley for the

next 25 years, it would mean that nearly all of the projected doubling

of food processing output could be handled by the existing labor force.

However, it appears likely that the rate of increase in productivity

per worker will level off in the future as the more obvious labor-

saving improvements have been made.  It is also probable that a part

of the future increase in output per man-hour will be taken out in

increased leisure, if, as appears reasonable, the well-established

long-term trend of declining hours of work per week continues.  For

purposes of this study, it is assumed that employment in food

processing in the Yakima Valley will increase at about 1.5 percent per

year during the study period.  This rate has been used for projecting

employment in the "food and kindred" category in Table 9.
\_l Output per man-hour, for production workers only, in food canning
and preserving in the U.S.' as a whole is estimated to have increased
at a rate of about 3.4 percent per year during the period 1950-60,
according to data in Statistical Abstract, U. S. Dept. of Commerce,
1963,  Table 309, page 238.  However, the rate of increase would be
lower  if clerical and other non-production employees in the industry
were included.  An estimate of the increase in productivity for all
employees in all food manufacturing activities can be derived from
data on industrial production.  As shown in the Statistical^Abst r ac t.
Table  1093, page 774, output of food and beverage manufacturers increased
from an index of 83 in 1950 (1957-9=100) to 107 in 1960.  At the same
time,  employment in "food and kindred" manufacturing increased only
slightly, from 1,790,000 to 1,793,000 (Statistical Abstract, Table 296,
page 225).  Average hours worked per week in "food and kindred" manu-
facturing decreased from 41.6 in 1950 (Statistical Abstract, 1958
edition, page 229) to 40.9 in 1960 (Statistical Abstract. 1963, p. 240).
Adjusting output for the changes in employment and hours, productivity
per employee per hour increased at a rate of about 2.7 percent per year.

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        d.   Lumber and wood products

        There appears to be the possibility of expansion in production

and employment in this industrial category based upon harvesting

species which are not now being cut, such as lodgepole pine, larch,

Engleman spruce, mountain hemlock, and alpine fir.   This could

provide the raw material for manufacture of pulp or hardboard or

other wood composition products.  Because of the large pulp and

paper facilities already well established over the Cascades :la western

Washington and because the transportation' of chips across the mountains

from Chelan County has already proved to be economically feasible, it

seems unlikely that additional pulp or paper capacity will be built

in the Yakima Basin.  The most likely use of secondary species manu-

factured within the Yakima Basin would be for hardboard or particle

board.  It is assumed, for purposes of estimating industrial wastes, that

two such plants will be established during the study period, with

Cle Elum and Yakima the most likely sites.-/  It is assumed that the

harvest of major species now being cut in the Yakima Basin will remain

about at the present level throughout the study period.  The harvest

in the national forests is about at the allowable level and it is

believed that operations of Boise Cascade Corporation, the principal

private operator in the area, are about at the sustained yield maximum.
I/ The estimate of two hardboard or wood ccrnposition nills is based
on the assumption that the volume of cut of secondary species could
equal about one-third of the present volume in primary species.  This
could provide about 50 million board feet per year, assuming that the
cut of primary species in the Yakima Basin is about 160 million board
feet.  That volume would supply material for two plants each of a capacity
of 100-150 tons per day of hardboard.

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There can be some increase in employment in this sector, however,

due to increases in fabricating of secondary products, though such

an increase will be partly offset by increases in output per man-hour.

        e.  Coal mining
                          i
        Coal reserves in the Yakima Basin, located in Kittitas

County near Roslyn and Cle Elum, are estimated at 241 million tons.-^

This deposit has been actively mined in the past, primarily for rail-

road coal.  Over 63 million tons have been mined from the deposits to
     2/
date.—   Since the railroad changed to diesel locomotives, however,

production has dropped to a low level.  Coal mining employment in

Kittitas County had declined to about 100 by 1960, from about 600 in

1950, and has further declined since then.  But the coal deposits in

Kittitas County are of a higher quality than most of the coal found

in Washington State, and a tentative proposal has been made by a

group of PUDs to re-activate the mines for thermal power purposes.

By the late 1970s, electricity requirements will probably require

thermal power supplies to supplement hydro power.  Whether the coal

mines are re-opened for this purpose will depend on the relative cost

advantages between coal-fired and nuclear-fired steam power generation.

It is assumed in this study, for water resource planning purposes,

that a 500,000-kw steam power plant will be in operation near the
JL/ Potential for the Coal Industry in the Pacific Northwest. Preliminary
Report, 1964, for Bonneville Power Administration, by U. S. Bureau of
Mines & H. Zinder & Assoc., p. 7.
2/ Ibid., p. 33.

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                                                               26

 coal  deposits by  1985.   Such a plant would require about 1.3 million

 tons  of  coal per  year, of the quality found in Kittitas County,

 and would  employ  about 300 persons in mining and generating plant

 operations."  For purposes of projections in this report, it is

 assumed  that the  plant will be operating at the same level in 2010.

 The assumption that such a plant will be built is, however, one which

 should be  re-examined in future years, as cost advantages between coal

 and nuclear fuels change.  Because coal is distributed so widely

 throughout the United States, with many deposits much closer to

 markets  than the  Kittitas location, it appears unlikely that the

 Kittitas deposit  would be used for any other purpose during the period

 to 2010.

         f. Diversified  manufacturing

         With the  growth  in the size of the local economy, it is antici-

 pated that there  will be a more than proportionate growth in the local

 manufacture of products  now imported into the area.  Table 2 shows

 how the  percentage of the labor force in the Yakima Valley in most

 manufacturing categories falls far below that in the Seattle Region

 and the  United States.   It is expected that, with growth, the Yakima

 Valley will tend  to move in the direction of the greater diversification

 characteristic of the larger areas.  This would mean increases in

 employment in  such classifications as fabricated metals, machinery,
I/ The heat rate of the proposed Cle Elum power plant would be 9000
BTU per kilowatt-hours (Ibid., p« 269, note).  The coal in the Kittitas
deposits is evaluated at about 12,000 BTU per pound.  The employment
projection is based upon the assumption (Ibid,, p. 290) that pro-
ductivity will increase in coal mining, due to mechanization, from
about 15 tons per man per shift at present in the Pacific Northwest
to about 30 tons by 1985,  A 225-day mining year is also assumed.

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                                                               27

"other durables", and "other rion-durables".  As shown in Table 9,

it it assumed that employment in these groups, taken as a whole,

will more than double from 1960 to 1985, with a somewhat slower rate

of increase during 1985-2010.

        g.  Service industries

            (1)  Trucking, warehousing and wholesaling.  It is assumed

that Yakima will continue to act as a center for these services and

that employment in them will increase with the increase in state

population.  As shown in Table 9, it is assumed that employment in

.trucking and warehousing will increase at an average annual rate of

about two percent during 1960-85 and 1985-2010.  Employment in whole-

sale trade is included in "all other services", which is projected

to increase at an average annual rate of about 1.5 percent during

1960-85 and 1985-2010.

            (2)  Education.  According to a recent economic study for

Kittitas County, the state college at Ellensburg doubled in number of

students during the past decade and is expected to double again during

the next decade.—'  It is assumed here that the growth of the college

will continue during the study period, although at a slower rate during

the latter part of the period.  Thus, the college will contribute

increasingly to the economic base of the area.  Employment in primary

and secondary teaching is expected to continue to increase at a some-

what faster rate than population, constituting one of the factors

causing employment in service industries to represent a growing

percentage of the total labor force.
I/ Kittitas County Port District, Economic Survey. Kittitas County. 1962,
Page G-ll.

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                                                                28




            (3)  Recreation.  There appear to be possibilities for



development of recreation and tourism activities along the eastern



slopes of the Cascades.  This would add to the economic base of the



area  and contribute to the increase in employment in "all other



services", as shown in Table 9.

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                                                               29


     2.  Future Labor Force

     On the basis of the preceding assumptions, an illustrative

distribution of jthe labor force in the Yakima 3-County Area in

1985 and 2010 is given in Table 9.  In this illustrative distribution,

service industries and diversified manufacturing are projected to

increase their shares of total employment.  Only a small increase

is anticipated in employment in the group comprising agriculture

and other "extractive" industries.


     3.  Estimated Future Population

         a.  Yakima 3-County Area

         Based upon the projected growth in employment discussed

in the preceding paragraphs, Table 9 gives an estimate of population

in the Yakima 3-County Area in 1985 and 2010.  The growth rate for the

3-County Area's population would be 1.3 percent per year during both

the 1960-85 and 1985-2010 periods.  In calculating the population

which it is assumed can be supported by the employment possibilities

envisioned, the following factors have been considered:

             (1)  Unemployment in the Yakima 3-County Area in 1960 was
much higher, as a percentage of the total labor force, than in the
United States as a whole.  This was due to a large extent to the season-
al it y of the agricultural and food-processing industries in the Yakima
Valley.  It is assumed in Table 9 that the high rate of unemployment will
decline in the future, due both to the diversification projected for the
future economy and to the fact that food processing is becoming less
seasonal as a result of holding crops in cold storage.  The 5 percent
unemployment assumed for the Yakima 3-County Area is equal to the
present and assumed future rate of unemployment in the U. S. as a whole.

             (2)  A somewhat smaller percentage of the population in the
Yakima 3-County Area was in the labor force in 1960 than in the U. S. as
a whole.  In the U. S. in 1960, between 40 and 41 percent of the total
population were in the labor force.  There has been no definite trend

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                                                              30

of change in this ratio during recent decades.  It is assumed
that that ratio will continue in the future for the U. S/ as a
whole and that the Yakima 3-County Area will tend to become more
like the Nation in this respect during the study period.  It has
been assumed in Table 9 that the percentage of the population in the
labor force in the Yakima 3-County Area would increase from 38.3 perce'nt
in 1960 to about 39 percent by 2010.

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                                                                 3.1

                             TABLE 9

      ESTIMATED FUTURE POPULATION OF THE YAKIMA 3-COUNTY AREA          .
AND AN ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF THE FUTURE LABOR FORCE, 1960-20103-'

                                           Employment, nearest thousand
	Industry Group	;	1960	1985	2010

Agriculture, forest management, fisheries,
  and mining                                15.5       16        -17

Manufacturing. Total                        14.8       25          '37
  Logging, lumber, wood prod., furn.—'        1.2       .2            3
  Primary and fabricated metals,
    machinery, transp. equip.,          '
    and all other durables                   1.2        4            7
  Food and kindred products                  3.3        5            7 /
  Chemicals and allied                       7.4       10°.'         12-/
  Textiles, apparel, printing, and other
    non-durables, and misc. mfr.             1.7        4  '          8

Trucking and warehousing                     1.8        3            5

Education                                    4.7•        8      ;     11

All other services, including construction
  and "industry not reported"      .         41.6       61           89

Total Employed Civilian Labor Force         78.4      113          159

Military                                     1.1        1            2
Total Employed Labor Force                  79.5      114          161
Unemployed                                   7.8        7            8

Unemployed as percent of total employed
  labor force                               (9.8%)     (6.1%)       (5.0%)
                                    6
Total Labor Force                           87.3      121          169

Population (nearest thousand)              228        314^        434-

Total labor force as percent of population (38.3%)    (38.5%)      (39%)
a/ Includes all of Benton, Kittitas and Yakima Counties.
b_/ Includes hardboard, etc.
£/ It is assumed that the Hanford atomic works will continue, with some
moderate expansion in employment, and that there will be growth of other
more conventional chemical manufacturing, particularly in  the field of
agricultural chemicals.
d/ Also corresponds to projections in North Cascade Mountains Study. CBIAC,
Jan.-1964, Part I, Table 1, page 42.

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                                                                    32

         b.  Yakima Valley

         As shown in Table 8, the portion of the Yakima 3-County Area's

population that was within the Yakima Valley was 79.6 percent in 1950

and 77.8 percent in 1960.  Although it is assumed that the Richland-

Kennewick area will grow less rapidly in the future than it has in

the past, it is anticipated that the population in the Yakima Valley will

probably continue to decline slowly, as a percentage of the 3-County Area.

Here, it is assumed that the Yakima Valley will constitute 76 percent of

3-County Area population in 1985 and 75 percent in 2010.  This would

mean that population within the Yakima Valley would be:

                        1960	 177,000
                        1985 	 239,000
                        2010	 326,000

         c.  Estimated Future Population in I.ncorporated Places

         The incorporated places in the Yakima Valley,  as  shown in Table 8,

  and including the entire Yakima City Urban Area as  defined in that table,

  constituted about 60 percent  of total valley population  in 1950 and

  about 62 percent in 1960.  It is assumed  that this  trend will continue

  and that population in incorporated places in 1985  will  represent about

  67 percent of valley population in 1985 and about 72  percent in 2010.

  This would  mean that population in incorporated places  in the valley

  would be 160,000 in 1985 and  235,000 in 2010.  The  growth rate for

  incorporated places, taken as a whole, would be about 1.6 percent per

  year during the study period.  The bulk of the growth is likely to be

  in the Yakima Urban Area, with Ellensburg and the Cle Elum-Roslyn

  area also participating because of the economic base  factors discussed

  above.  A study of the economic base of each incorporated place in the

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                                                                33
Yakima Valley is beyond the scope of this report.   Insofar as the growth

experience during the last two decades  as shown in Table 8 is a guide,

it would appear that many of the smaller incorporated places have very

little growth potential.  This would be consistent with the tendency

throughout the United States in recent decades for the growth rate of cities

to be proportionate to their size.  Special circumstances can, of course,

upset this generalization in individual cases.  In Table 10, which must

be regarded as simply a working hypothesis for planning purposes, the

following growth rates have been assumed for the study period:
    City or Area

Yakima Urban Area




Ellensburg

Cle Elum, So. Cle Elum,
  Roslyn Area
Grandview, Granger, Mabton,
  Selah, Sunnyside, Zellah,
  Benton,City, West Richland

Kittitas, Harrah, Moxee City,
  Naches, Tieton, Toppenish,
  Wapato, Prosser

Average for all incorporated
  places
                             Annual Growth
                                Rate, 78
1.7
1.5
1.5
0.5
1.6
Factors Influencing
Selection of growth
      Rate

Largest city; service
  industry center for
  entire basin; diversi-
  fied manufacturing center.

Site of state college.
Coal mining; potential
  recreation area; close to
  secondary timber stands.

Relatively high rates of
  growth during 1940-60 or
  1950-60.

Relatively low rates of growth,
  or decline in population,
  during 1940-60 or 1950-60.
     Because of the arbitrary nature of the growth rates assumed for

the various cities, Table 10 is offered only as a general guide to the

order of growth that would be consistent with recent trends and with

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                                                                  34
the projected population of  the valley as a whole.  A  factor  increasing




the arbitrary nature  of population projections  for  incorporated  places




is that new  incorporations may occur or  the rate of annexation to




existing  cities may change.



           d.  Estimated Future Population by Service Areas




           In order to facilitate planning for water supplies and waste




disposal,  the Yakima Valley has been divided into six service areas, and




the projected future population of the Valley has been distributed among




these areas,  as shown in Table II* . The distribution of unincorporated




population has been made on the basis of a..judgment as to the potential




for expansion of agriculture in the various areas and the probabilities of




growth in suburban population.

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                                                                  35

                             TABLE 10

ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE POPULATION IN INCORPORATED PLACES
                          YAKIMA VALLEY

                 (Population to nearest thousand)-
City or Area
Kittitas County;
Cle Elum, South Cle Elum, and
(total population)
Ellensburg
Kittitas
Yakima County:
Yakima Urban Area3.'
Grandview
Granger
Harrah
Mabton
Moxee City ;
Naches
Selah
Sunnyside
Tieton
Toppenish
Wapato
Zillah
1960

Roslyn
3.5
8.6
.5

65.6
3.4
1.4
.3
1.0
.5
.7
2.8
6.2
.5
5.7
3.1
1.1
1985


5.0
12.5
.6

100.0
4.9
2.0
.3
1.4
.6
.8
4.1
9.0
.6
6.4
3.6
.1.5
2010


7.4
18.1
.7

153.0
7.2
2.9
.4
2.0
.7
.9
5.9
13.0
.7
7.3
4.0
2.2
Benton County (portion in Yakima Basin) :
Benton City
Prosser
West Richland
TOTAL, INCORPORATED PLACES IN
YAKIMA BASIN
1.2
2'. 8
1.3

110.2
1.7
3.1
1.9

160.0
2.3
3.5
2.8

235.0
   a/ For definition of Yakima Urban Area, see Table 8 footnote^/.

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                                                                       36
                                TABLE 11

     PROJECTED FUTURE POPULATION IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY, BY SERVICE AREAS
                    (Population to nearest thousand)
     Area
 1950
 1960
 1985
 2010
a/
Cle Elum - Roslyn Areer
Incorporated places-^
Unincorporated
Ellensfaurg - Kittitas Area0-'
Incorporated places^.'
Unincorporated
Naches - Yakima - Moxee City Area6.'
Incorporated places-
Unincorporated
Wapato - Toppenish AreaS'
Incorporated places]!/
Unincorporated
.'Sunny side - Grandview.Areai'
Incorporated placesJL'
Unincorporated
Prosser - Benton City AreaK'
Incorporated places^/
Unincorporated
6.5
4.2
2.3
15.7
9.0
6.7
84.6
64.9
19.7
28.0
9.7
18.3
23.1
8.7
14.4
8.7
n.a.
n.a.
4.8
3.5
1.3
15.7
9.2™>
6.5
89.2
70.1
19.1
28.5
10. 12>
18.4
27.4
12.0
15.4
11.6
5.3
6.3
6.7
5.0
1.7
21.6
' 13.1
8.5
128.1
106.1
22.0
, 33.4
' 11.8
21.6
35.4
17.3.
18.1
13.8
6.7
' 7.1
9.5
7.4
2.1'
29.3
18.8
10.5
186.1
161.2
24.9
38.7
13.9
24.8
45.9.
25.1
20.8
16.5
8.6
7.9
TOTAL YAKIMA VALLEY
   Incorporated places
   Unincorporated
166.6
 n.a.
 n.a.
177.2
110.2
 67.0
239.0
160.0
 79.0
326.0
235.0
 91.0
&J  Kittitas County Census Divisions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
b/  Roslyn, Cle Elum, and South Cle Elum.
£/  Kittitas County Census Divisions 1, 7, 8, 9, 10, and Ellensburg.
d_/  Kittitas and Ellensburg.
e/  Yakima County Census Divisions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
™     13, 14,  15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, Selah and Yakima.
fj  Includes Yakima and Union Gap, and certain unincorporated suburban area as
      defined  in footnote "b" in Table 8, and also Tieton, Naches,  Selah, and
      Moxee City.
&/  Yakima County Census Divisions 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 33,  34, 35, 36,
      37, 39,  40, Toppenish and Wapato.
h/  Harrah, Toppenish, Wapato, and Zillah.
i/  Yakima County Census Divisions 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 38, and Sunnyside.
j/  Grandview, Granger, Mabton and Sunnyside.
k/  Benton County Census Divisions 12, 13, 14, and Prosser.
\J  Benton City, Prosser, West Richland.
m/  Differs from data shown in Table 10 because of rounding.

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