WORKING PAPER NO.  50
           COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
    For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
           CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
         ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
                     1960-2010
                  November 1964
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH,  EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
              Public Health  Service
                    Region IX

 Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                570 Pittock  Block
                Portland, Oregon 97205

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                                                FOR REVIEW ONLY
                      WORKING PAPER NO.- 50
                  COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
           For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
                  CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
                ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
                            1960-2010
DATE;  November 1964              DISTRIBUTION;

Prepared by   RLC 	              Project Staff
Reviev/ed by       	              Cooperating Agencies

Approved by 	              General   	>__
       U. Se DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
                     Public Health Service
                           Region IX

         Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                        570 Pittock Block
                        Portland 5, Oregon

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                        TABLE OF CONTENTS


                                                                Page

  I.  PRESENT POPULATION	     1

 II.  PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE	     6.

      A.  General	     6.
      B.  Agriculture	;...   .15.
      C.  Food Processing 	„	    20
      D.  Forest Products	    25x
      E.  Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction 	    32
      F.  Trade and Services	    35
      G.  Minerals and Mining	    £1
III.  ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
      A.  Agriculture ................................... ....   -44
      Bo  Food Processing ................ „ ...... ...... ..... ,,    49
      C.  Forest Products .......................... .. ........    57
      D.  Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction .......    63
      E.  Trade and. Services ................................    65
      F.  Mining - Forestry - Unemployment ..................    67

 IV.  FUTURE LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION ............ . ...... . .   '68

      A.  1960 - 1985 ........ ...............................    68
      B.  1985 - 2010 ............. ..... .................... .    69
      C.  Population Distribution ...........................    71

          APPENDIX ...... ...... . ......................... . . ...    74

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                    I.  PRESENT POPULATION






     The twelve counties of the Middle Snake Basin had in 1960 a




population of just over a quarter of a million persons.




     Population density is low throughout most of the  basin,   Ada




and Canyon Counties contain sixty percent of the area's inhabitants,




most of them concentrated in or near the three principal cities of




the region:  Boise, Nampa, and Caldwell.  A secondary  focus of popu-




lation is provided by the line of food-processing towns: Payette,




Ontario, Nyssa.  Between these foci, a substantial part of the re-




maining .populace of the region subsists in a series of smaller com-




munities separated by farms.  The population outside of this  center,




which has formed in the lower reaches of the .Boise, Payette,  Owyhee,




and Malheur Rivers, is widely dispersed through the semi-arid regions




which enclose it on three sides, and.the mountainous,  forested




northern portion of the basin.




     Population growth for several decades has occurred at a  rate




exceeding that of the State of Idaho.  In the last two decades, growth




has been fairly even.  An annual rate of population increase  of 1.8




percent in the 1940-1950 decade slowed only moderately to 1.6 percent




during the 1950's.  Table 1 lists populations of the principal divi-




sions of the basin at each of the last three national census  periods.

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            TABLE 1
COUNTY .POPULATION:  1940-1960 £


Area
Ada County
Boise
Associated Areas
Boise Urbanized Area
Kuna
Meridian
Rural
Canyon County
Caldwell
Middleton
Nampa
Notus
Parma
Wilder
Rural
Elmore County
Glenns Ferry
Mountain Home
Rural
TOTAL: BOISE RIVER BASIN
Boise County
Horseshoe Bend
Rural
Gem County
Emmet t
Rural
Payette County
Fruitland
. New Plymouth
Payette
Rural
Valley County
Cascade
McCall
Stibnite
Rural
TOTAL: PAYETTE RIVER BASIN


1940
50,401
(26,130)
( 2,100 E)
28,230 E
443
1,465
20,263 E
40,987
7,272
477
12,149
277
1,085
507
19,220
5,518
1,290
1,193
3,035
96,906
2,333
N.A.
2,333
9,544
3,203
6,341
9,511
-
804
3,32"2
5,385
4,035
1,029
875
-•
2,131
25,423

Population
1950
70,649
(34,393)
(15,724 E)
50,117 E
534
1,810
18,188 E
53,597
10,487
.496
16,185
313
1,369
555
24,192
6,687
1,515
1,887
3,285
130,933
1,776
401
1,375
8,730
3,067
5,663
11,921
573
942
4,032
6,374
4,270
943
1,173
717
1,437
26,697
1960
Population
1960 Sq. Mi.
93,460 89.7
(34,481)
(39,486)
73,967 5.'
516
2,081
16,896
57,662 99.4
12,230
541
18,013
324
1,295
' 603
.24,656
16,719 5.5
1,374
5,984
9,361
167,841
1,646 0.9
480
1,166
9,, 127 16.4
3,769
5,358
12,363 30.7
804
940
4,451
6,168
3,663 1.0
923
1,423
-
1,317
26,799

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                        TABLE  1 (Continued)



1960
Population Population
Area
Adams County
Council
New Meadows
Rural
Washington County
Cambridge
Weiser
Rural
TOTAL: WEISER RIVER BASIN
Owyhee County
•Homed ale
Mar sing
Rural
Baker County
Baker
Halfway
Huntington
Haines
Rural
Malheur County
Nyssa
Ontario
Vale
Rural
TOTAL: CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN
1940
3,407
692
264
, 2,451
8,853
405
3,663
4,785
12,260
5,652
857
-
4,795
18,297
9,342
416
741
377
7,421
19,767
1,855
3,551
1,083
13,278
178^305
1950
3,347
748
621
1,978
8,576
354
3,961
4,261
11,923
6,307 ,
1,411
. 643
4,253
16,175
9,471
312'
733
321
5,338
23,223
2,525
4,465
1,518
14^715
211,258
1960 Sq. Mi.
2,978 2.2
827
647
1,504
8,378 5.7
473
4,208
3,697
11,356
6,375 0.8
1,381
555
4,439
17,295 5.6
• 9,986
505
689
331
5,784
22,764 2.3
2,611
5,101
1,491
13,561
252_,430 7.3
a/ U. S. Census of Population 1950,  I960.

b/ Estimates of the Boise Urban Area rest  on examination of census tract
   maps and include only contiguous  built-up areas.   The Ada County
   Planning Commission includes 76,137 in  its definition of the urban
   area for 1960, plus 5,040 persons as nixed, rural non-farm and farm
   population, and 1,388 in rural areas to obtain a  population of
   82,565 for its definition of the  Boise  Metropolitan Area.

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     The table indicates that population growth has not been even.

Five of the twelve counties contained less people in 1960 than in

1940; six counties had lower populations in 1960 than in 1950.

Indeed^nine counties experienced net migration during the 1950's;

only Ada, Payette, and Elmore Counties saw populations grow at a

rate above the natural rate of increase.

     Population increase has been restricted to urban areas.  Rural

populations, in spite of intensive fanning and scattered additions

to irrigation, have declined.  Growth of communities has, in gen-

eral, correlated rather closely with their size, a fact suggested

by the data in Table 2, which lists population growth rates by size

of place for the last two decades.

                            TABLE 2

ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE, URBAN .AND RURAL POPULATIONS, 1940-1960 -/
Place
Boise Urban Area
Nampa-Caldwell
7 Cities, 2,500-10,000
7 Cities, 1,000-2,499
14 Towns, 250-999
•
Total Rural
Basin Total
State of Idaho
1940-1950
5.9%
3.6
1.0
2.4
3.4
-0.1
1.8
1.1
1950-1960
2.6%
1.2
2.1
0.2
0.8
0.3
1.6
1.2
1940-1960
4.8%
2.2
. 1.5
1.3
2.1
0.1
1.7
1.1
a/ Towns are classified according to 1960 census population, with the
   exception of Cascade (Valley County), which had over 1,000 inhab-
   itants in 1940 but dropped below that level in the succeeding decade,

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                                                                   5

     The moderate rural growth indicated during the period 1950-1960

is deceptive.  Growing rural populations were recorded for Elmore

County and Canyon County, where areas adjacent to the communities of

Mountain Home in the one case, and Nampa and Caldwell in the other,

experienced substantial growth which was rural only in that it

occurred outside of the statutory city limits.  If "urbanized areas"

could be logically defined for these places, a somewhat higher growth

rate for Nampa-Caldwell, a considerably higher growth rate for cities

of 2,500-10,000, and a decline for rural populations would be

demonstrated in Table 2.

     The end result of the disparity between population trends for

urban and rural areas has been a change in the character of the region.

In 1940, .almost 55 percent of the Middle Snake Basin's population .was

living in rural areas and communities of less than 1,000.  By 1960

that portion of the population represented less than 40 percent of

the total, and v:as exceeded in numbers by those living in and near

cities over 10,000.  Thus, in two decades the study area was trans-

formed from a rural society to one with a moderate urban predominance,

as indicated by Table 3.
                            TABLE 3

          URBAN & RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 1940-1960 £/

                                            Percent of Basin Population
                                            1940        1950        1960

Boise Urban Area                            15.8        23.2        29.4

Nampa-Caldwell                              10.9        12.4        12.0

7 Cities, 2,500-10,000                  .    '14.7        13.7        14.3

7 Cities, 1,000-2,499                        4.3         4.6         4.0

14 towns, 250-999                            2.9         3.8         3.0


Total Rural                                 51.4        42.3        37.3
 a/  Not  adjusted  to  reflect  urbanized rural  populations except in the
    Boise Urban Area.

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                 II.  PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE






     A.  General




     The .economic life of the Middle Snake Basin is tied closely to




farming.  Lumbering, construction, and some services are developed at




levels which provide strong support to the agriculture-based economy;




but almost a fourth of total employment in 1960 was found either on




farms or in food-processing industries developed to utilize farm




products.  Table 4, which lists employment in 1960 by industrial




classification, and contrasts its distribution with that of the U. S.




as a whole, points clearly to the pre-eminent position of agriculture




in the area.




     Economic development of the region during the nineteen-fifties




was concentrated largely in lines of activity in which the region's




position was already clearly established:  agriculture, lumbering,




and food processing.  Miscellaneous manufacturing activities demon-




strated noteworthy percentage growth in employment; but only in the




transportation equipment classification, where trailer construction




became a vigorous industry, did significant numbers become employed.




Table 5 contrasts 1950 and 1960 employment in industrial classifications




to provide some estimate of the nature of recent shifts in the regional




economy.




   •  The table indicates that employment in twelve industries rose at




a perceptibly more rapid pace than either total employment or the labor




force:  forestry, metals, and metalworking, transportation equipment,




food processing, printing and publishing, miscellaneous durable and




non-durable goods manufacturing, wholesale trade, personal services,

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                                      TABLE 4

                       INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE
                        MIDDLE SNAKE BASIN AND U. S.,  1960 I/
                                           Number  Employed      % of Labor Force
Indus try	Middle Snake	Middle Snake   U.S.
Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Furniture, lumber, wood pdts.
Primary and falctd. metals
Machinery & tsptn. eqpt.
Other durables
Food & kindred
Printing & publishing
Other non- durables
Railroads & Rwy. Express
Other transportation & warehousing
Communications & utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . '
Financial, business & repair svcs.
Personal services
Education
Medical & other professional SVCSK
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
-17,537 •
' 501 '
191
7,436
11,344-
"2,492
367
1,120
801 • ..
5,190
986
388
1,527
2,065
3,018
3,666
14,618
5,652
6,336
4,669
5,272
4,908
1,903
5,101
18.3
' .5
.1
7.8
. 11.8-
2.6
.4
1.2
.8
5.4
1.0
.4
1.0
2.2
3.1
3.8
15.1
5.9
6.6
4.9
. 5.5
5.1
2.0
5.3
6.6
.1
1.0
5.6
27.1
1.6
3.8
7.5
2.1
2.6
1.7
7.0
1.5
2.8
. 2.3
3.4
14.6
6.3
6.4
5.1
6.3
4.9
3.8
5.2
TOTAL LABOR FORCE	'              95,744

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               TABLE 5




EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION, 1950 and 1960

Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Frtre, Lumber, W.P.
Pry. & fabctd. metal
Mchy & tsptn. eqpt.
Other dbles.
Food & kindred
Printing & publish.
Other non-dbles.
Railroads & Rwy. Xpress
Other tsptn & whsg.
Comctns. & utlts.
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Fncl., bsnss,rpr. svcs
Personal svce
Education
Number
1950
21,841
257
599
6,531
6,068
2,233
262
129
485
1,892
776
291
2,064
1,734
2,773 .
2,843
12,549
4,788
4,734
2,725
"Mdcl. & other pfsnl. svc. 3,727
Public administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
; TOTAL LABOR FORCE
3,712
1,619
4.345
82,909
Employed
1960
17,537
501
191
7,436
11, 3^4
2,492
367
1,120
801
5,190
986
388
1,527
2,065
3,018
3,666
14,618
5,652
6,336
4,669
5,272
4,908
1,903
5,101
95,744
Percent Labor Force
Change
(4,304)
244 '
(408)
905
5f276
^_)9
105
991
316
3,298
. 210
97
(537)
331
245
823-
2,069
864
1,602
1,944
1,545
1,196
284
756-
12,835
i *
1950
26.4
.3
.7
7.9
7.3
2.7
.3
.2
.6
2.3
.9
.3
"1.5
2.1
3.4
3.4
15.1
5.8
5.7
3.3
4.5
4.5
1.9
5.3

1960
18.3
.5
.1
7.8
11.8
2.6
.4
1.2
.8
5.4
1.0
.4
1.6
2.2
..3. 1
3.8
15.1
5.9
. 6.6
4.9
5.5
5.1
2.0
5.3

1960 as
7. 1950
80
194
31
114
186
117
140
869
165
274
127
133
74
119
109
129
117
118
134
172
141
. 132
.117
118
116

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education, professional services, and public administration.   In




distinction, employment by agriculture, mining and railroads  declined;




and employment by communications and utilities firms rose at  a lesser




rate than the labor force.




     This creates a somewhat deceptive appearance.  Service occupations




expanded generally in the United States during the nineteen-fifties; and




the flowering of service jobs in the Middle Snake Basin may be viewed,




in general, as participation in a national economic trend, rather than




a regional shift in the employment pattern.  Similarly, declining




agricultural employment followed a broad-based national current.




     In order to isolate distinctly regional employment growth or




decline from changes resulting from participation in broader  national




trends, Table 6 lists the net difference between 1960 employment in •




each industrial classification, and the employment that v/ould have




occurred if change between 1950 and 1960 had been exactly proportional




to national experience.




     The decline in agricultural employment is seen to be well under




what it would have been had national trends prevailed.  Employment in




lumbering and forestry grew in the face of a national decline.  All




manufacturing classifications grew in excess of the national  experience.




Growth in service employment, though vigorous, was generally less than




might be anticipated from national figures.  Railroad employment fell




off at a lesser rate than for the Nation,  and was another source of




relative strength to the regional economy.

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                                                      TABLE 6

                                   VARIATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL
                               CATEGORIES FROM RATE OF CHANGE NATIONALLY, 1950-1960


u
e
(U d) 
.5-.no
O O XI
a
S M 0 •
W O -H CO
XI 4J
Ct rt cfl •
vO h-1 pfi ^~)
CTv
i— 1
CO
1 P
>> Cy
O Vi •!•) O
i-H O -U 4-1
E aj oi )j
W >— 1 03
^v.  0) O -H
. i-H E f«H CO
4J
C
a> cu s
BOO
>. >J t-l
O O 0)
r*H fr) ft*)
a
E M 0 •
W O -i-l CO
O j 1
O tU nj
Total gain
or (loss)
relative
to U. S.
EMPLOYMENT GAIN OVER
U. S. RATE OF CHANGE
Agriculture
Wood Products
Food Processing
Wholesale Trade






R. R. Transportation
Public Adstn. and
Education






Primary and
fabricated metal
Machinery and
transportation eqpt.
Other double mfg.


1462^
549—
3296
271






212^

482







90

951
235


7548
NET GAIN
4334
MATERIALLY SAME -RATE OF CHANGE AS
U. S.


















,

Other Transportation 22





22

EMPLOYMENT LOSS RELATIVE TO
U.S. RATE OF CHANGE
Construction (630)
Communications and
Utilities (287)
Retail Trade (729)
















Mining (280)
Finance, business
repair service (1042)
Other services (268)


(3236)

'
£/ Decline, but at a lesser rate than Nation.
b_,  Rose, while employment nationally declined.

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                                                                 11
     Thus, in spite of sharing in the national trend to increased




emphasis on services, and despite robust growth of miscellaneous




manufacturing sources of employment during the 1950"s,  the Central




Snake Basin remained highly dependant on farming and,  to a lesser




degree, on logging, together.with the food-processing  plants and




sawmills based on them.




     The area is too large to display an homogenous economic




configuration.  While agriculture is highly developed  through most




of .the Central Snake Basin, lumbering, food processing, other manufactur-




ing, and services tend to be concentrated.




     Food processing is most intensively pursued in the lower reaches




of-the Boise and Payette River Basins,  Lumbering is concentrated in




the northern part of the basin—Baker County and the upper Payette




and Weiser River Basins.  Services are most highly developed in the.




City of Boise.  Miscellaneous manufacturing occurs principally about




Boise, extending into the Nampa-Caldwell area, with a secondary con-




centration in the Baker, Oregon area.




     Table 7 attempts to indicate the nature of specialization among




subregions.  It lists the proportion  (percentage) of total 1960 basin




employment in specific industries located in each of eight subareas.




     Like any region whose economic viability is tied to natural .




resources, the Middle Snake area displays a strongly seasonal




employment cycle:  the exigencies of  seed time, harvest, ice or mud




in the forests, impose their own pattern on economic activities.




Table 8 indicates something of the nature of this in the form of an




index of quarterly employment.

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                                             TABLE  7

                      DISTRIBUTION OF AREA EMPLOYMENT AMONG SUBAREAS,  1960
                                      (PERCENT OF BASIN TOTAL)
Sub-Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elmore County
Owyhee County
a/
Payette R. Basin—
Weiser R. BasinJ?/
Malheur County
Baker County
Agri-
culture
12.
31.
2.
6.
13.
7.
18.
7.
9%
4
9
8
1
3
2
4
Lumber-
ing
18.07,
6.4
2.0
-
48.0
8.3
1.3
16.0 '
Food
Process- Other
ing mf g .
17.3%
42.3
-
2.2
16.5
6.1
13.8
1.8
54.8%
24.8
1.2 •
1.3
3.1
4.1
2.7
8.0
CSTCN
48.8%
13.4
5.8
2.0
9.1
3.2
6.4
11.3
Forestry
& TSPTN
Mining ' CMCTN
Utility
34.6%
4.1
2.6
-
24.8
6.7+
4.1
23.1
43.1%
26.2
6.9
1.4
7.4
3.3
5.5
6.2
Trade
44.3%
22.8
3.4
1.7
8.3
4.2
8.9
6.4
Other
Sources
50.0%
20.0
4.2
1.5
7.2
4.2
7.3
5.6
Pop-
ula-.
tion
37.1%
22.9
6.6
2.5
10.6
4.5.
9.0
6.9
a/  Payette, Gem, Boise and Valley Counties.
b_/  Washington and Adams Counties.

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                                                                           13
                                    TABLE 8

                     INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT SEASONA.LITY.1962 &'
                              (Second Quarter=100)
1st
Agriculture —
Food processing
Lumbering
c/
Construction *•
Other manufacturing
Transportation, comm. , utilities
Trade
Finance
Service & miscellaneous
Governments -
Qtr • .
77
101
93
83
89
94
90
95
92
95
3rd Qtr
105
113
124
103
95
101
101
103
100
123
4th Qtr
98
.112
120
101
85
101
104
103
93
111
e/
Monthly range for three principal industries ~
(second quarter average employment=100)
Agriculture, high: 130 October
low: 75 December
Food processing, high: 125 December
low: 83 July
Lumbering, high: 133 August
low: . 88 : March









3_f  Idaho Employment  Security  Agency,  Oregon Dept.  of Employment
Jb/  Estimate for  State  of  Idaho  as  a whole
jc/  Excludes Elmore County
_d/  All employment by Federal, State and local governments
&/  Based on monthly  figures  for the State of Idaho as a whole

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                                                                   14






     The seasonal employment cycle is relieved by some complementarity




of operations.  Food processing and farming have overlapping high labor




requirements during the harvest, particularly in the month of October,




but farming needs drop off thereafter, while processors reach their




peak of activity during December when farm needs are small and




sugar refineries and other food processing plants are  at peak operat-




ing levels.  Forestry and lumbering attain maximum labor strength




during the summer (including temporary employees utilized for conserva-




tion tasks in national forests — the reason for the high level of third-




quarter government employment) when farm requirements  are also high,




and a body of temporary and migrant labor becomes available.

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                                                                   15
     B.  Agriculture




     Agriculture is the mainstay of the Central Snake Basin's economy.




It employs more persons than any industry other than retail trade; it




supplies the raw materials for the principal manufacturing industries;




and it.has served as the focus of natural resource development.




     Irrigation is the motivating force of the basin's farms.  Among




the major crops, all sugar b'eets, potatoes, vegetables, berries and




fruits are produced under irrigation.  In 1959, 63 percent of the




pasture, 73 percent of the grain crop, 74 percent of the hay crop, and




all of the crop of field seeds were developed on irrigated farms -




though not necessarily with the use of irrigation.-




     Giveij. irrigation, the soil is extraordinarily fertile; and, with




a long, warm growing season, many kinds of crop, may be cultivated.




To this natural flexibility, improvements have been added in the




technology and organizational aspects of agriculture-and in the average




degree of capital invested in each farm.  The result has been the




evolution of diverse farming patterns to meet the conditions of sub-




areas and the markets opened by expansion of food processing.




     The recent course of development has been similar to that of




most western agricultural areas.  In the decade between the 1950 and




1959 censuses of agriculture, 18 percent of the total number of farms,




some 2,700, disappeared, mostly through consolidation.  In the course




of this evolution,  4,300 farm jobs were obviated --one in five.




Over 53,000 more acres were irrigated at the end of  the decade than




at the beginning, an increase of 6 percent.  Total land in farms




increased 294,000 acres, one-tenth going into production of crops.




nine-tenths into pasture.  Growth of food-processing provided  superior

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                                                                    16

markets for agricultural products, and improved farming methods

increased yields, with the result that the value of products sold

by the basin's farmers advanced roughly $40 million, or by one-third,

in spite of stable prices for farm products.  The development of the

area's agriculture during the decade is summarized in Table 9.

     In terms of crop patterns, the area has been undergoing a

prolonged transition from a food-grain producing area to one concentrat-

ing on animal products.  Skyrocketing wheat yields have facilitated the

transition, by providing higher outputs from shrinking land inputs.

This has allowed a growing portion of the total farm land to go to

production of hay, feed grains  (corn  acreage, particularly, has in-

creased) and pasture.  In addition, the acreage devoted to potatoes,

sugar beets, and fruits and vegetables has increased at varying rates,

depending on market conditions.

     Cattle feeding has become  an important agricultural function in

the area.  In 1962 Idaho ranked fourth among the western states, fifteenth

in the Nation, in number of cattle oi\  feed; and the Central Snake Basin,

together with an area beyond the basin's eastern boundary, is the

center of Idaho cattle feeding  industry."   The nineteen   registered

feed lots in the basin in 1963  were found at Caldwell  (9), Nampa  (4),

Payette  (2), Wilder  (2), Weiser, and Emmett.
jY The  number  of cattle  on  feed  in Idaho at January  1 rose  from  a
wartime low  of under 20,000 in 1940  to  125,000  in  1957,  a record
level that has b^.ftn exceeded since 1961 after a sharp decline  in
the  late 1950's:     T.  Bell and M.  Heinstrotn, Idaho  Beef-Growth
and  Development of an Industry.  U. Idaho, Oct.  1962.

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                                                     17
           TABLE  *




AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949-1959^


Land
Number of farms
Land in farms (acres)
Average size of farm (acres)
Land irrigated (acres)
Cropland harvested (acre's)
Pasture (acres)
1949-50

Use Trends
14,802
5,680,335
384
910,618
799,256
4,337,907
1959


12,111
5,974,486
492
963,891
828,943
4,571,231
1959 @\%
1949-50


81.7
105.2
128.3
105.9
103.7
105.4
Acreage Devoted to Principal Crops
Hay
Wheat
Corn
Sugar beets
Barley
Potatoes
Vegetables
Berries, fruits, nuts
Output of
Wheat ifbusbpls^
370,086
109,123
33,791
39,662
68,097
21,795
18,739
14,397
Principal
3,408,637
Corn harvested for grain(bushels) 986,244
Barley (bushels;
Hay (tons)
Sugar beets (tons)
Potatoes (COT)
2,408,228
863,086
869,016
4,772,655
392,842
85,552
72,874
54,722
52,072
20,890
18,730
13,966 .
Crops
3,895,129
2,076,925
2,039,421
954,784
1,374,631
4,924,080
106.1
78.4
215.8
137.8 .
76.5
95.9
100.0
97.0

114.2
210.3
84. 7
110.6
158.3
103.1
Per-Acre Output of Principal Crops
Wheat (bushels)
Corn (bushels)
Barley (bushels)
Hay (tons)
Sugar beets (tons)
Potatoes (CWT)
31.3
29.2
35.4
2.33
21.8
218
45.5
28.5
•39.3 '
2.42
25.1
236
145.3
97.6
111.0
103.9
115.1
108.3

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                                                                      18
                       TABLE  9   (Continued)

                  AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949-1959^
                                     1949-50         1959     1959 @ 7.
                                                              1949-50
                        Animal Populations

Cattle and calves                   543,169        689,351       127.0
Milk cows                            66,825         76,258       114.1
Sheep                               443,097.        290,943        65.6
Swine                                67,368         70,369       104.5

                           Animals Sold

Cattle and calves                   232,561        364,598       156.6
Sheep                               328,678        305,006        92.8
Swine                                95,963         85,831        89.4

                        Value of Crops Sold
Field crops
Vegetables
Dairy products
Livestock
$36,639,815
4,115,535
15,028,551
39,241,274
$49,223,387
3,865,763
23,706,836
65,948,395
134.2
93.9
157.7
142.6
a/  U.  S.  Census of Agriculture, 1954, 1959.

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                                                                   19
     Growth of dairy fanning, too, has been rapid, with the Boise

River Basin (Ada and Canyon Counties) and the Payette River Basin

(Payette and Gem Counties) leading the course of development.  Though

dairy herds increased only 14 percent in the 1950 - 1959 decade,

value of dairy products sold rose almost 58 percent, due largely to

increased milk production per cow.—

     Sugar beets are grown' in ten of the twelve counties of the

Central Snake.  Production; however, is concentrated in Canyon and

Malheur Counties	sites of the refineries—where 70 to 75 percent of

the total harvest originates.  In the case of potatoes, the same two

counties account for 80 percent of production.  Acreage devoted to

potatoes has declined, and output has risen only-moderately since 1950,

although processing plants in Caldwell and Ontario were pioneer

installations in the industry.  With the development of broad consumer

markets for a variety of processed potato products, the potato processing

center"- and thus the grower's market"~ has shifted eastward to the

better-suited soils of the Upper Snake Basin.  In 1962 and 1963, however,

private irrigation projects- developed in Elinore and Owyhee Counties

were planted largely in potatoes.

     Vegetables, principally sweet corn, are also produced chiefly

in Canyon and Mdheur Counties, where markets are provided by local

processors.  Payette and Gem Counties also contain processing markets,

and provide secondary concentrations of vegetable plantings, as well

as the major part of the area's output of fruits and berries; an output

that is supplemented by the production of contiguous portions of

Canyon and Washington Counties.
 I/ Annual milk  production per  animal  rose  from 6,320 pounds  in  1952
To 8 360 pounds in  1963,  an increase  of  over 32 percent:   U.  S.  Dept.
 of Agriculture  Statistical Reporting  Service,  Boise, March 1964.

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                                                                20
 C.   Food Processing






      Growth  of food processing has provided  the major  formative




 influence in the  recent  industrial development of  the  Central  Snake




 Basin.   By modifying and creating markets  for farm products, food




 processing has acted to  speed the pace  of .agricultural change.  By




 absorbing the labor released by  improved farm productivity, process-




 ing has  slowed the  pace  of  out-migration of  population.  And in




 creating, an  additional market for inoastrial products, food process-




 ing has  encouraged  development of miscellaneous manufacturing  and




 construction.




      Reflecting the diversity of agricultural output,  the  food process-




.ing industry of the basin embraces a variety of processes  and  produces




 a wide  range of products.  Table 10, which lists the agricultural




 processing plants of the region, includes  87 units.  Most  of the.se




 are of  only  moderate size,  but some  are plants of  substantial  proportions,




 whose products supply a  not inconsiderable portion of  the  total national




 market.




      At Nampa, the  center of  the area's processing activities, the




 Amalgamated  Sugar Co. refinery,  the  General Foods  frozen vegetable




 plant,  and the Albertson's  Poultry Processing Plant  are installa-




 tions of significant size and of sizeable  output.   The J.  R.  Siinplot




 plant at Caldwell,  whose operations'  include canning,  freezing, and




 dehydrating  of potatoes  and other vegetables is  another substantial




 plant.   Ore-Ida Foods of Ontario, Idaho Canning  Co.  of Nyssa,  the

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                                                                         21
                              TABLE

                    AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS
      Location
        Firm
   Product or Process
Eagle
Boise
Meridian
Nampa
        Boise River Basin

Boise Valley Packing Co.
Liberty Meat Packers
Mountaineer Meet Co.
Eagle Flour Milling Co.
Alpine Pac
Custom Meat Packing Co.
Davis Packing Co.
G. L. Morrison
Swift & Co.
Van's Packing Plant
Boise Poultry Co.
Idaho Poultry Co., Inc.
VJalsh Poultry Co.
Creameries, Inc.
Triangle Dairy
Home Dairies, Inc.

Young's Dairy Products
Albertson's Ice Cream Co.
Sun Ray Drive-in  Dairy
J. R. Simplot Co.
Idaho Food Products, Inc.
Meridian Meat Packers
Ada County Daymen's Assoc.'
Wyeth Laboratories, Inc.
Creamline Dairy
Tiffany Meat Packers
Nampa Packing Co.
Ben Anktell Slaughter House
Grimes Custom Slaughtering
Hillcrest Packing Co.
H. H. Keim Co., Ltd.
King Packing Co.
Albertson's Poultry
   Processing Plant
Dewey Walls Poultry Farm
Greenleaf Creamery Co.
Home Dairies, Inc.
Meat packing
Blended and prepared flour
Meat packing
                                                       n
                                                       n
                                                Poultry dressing
                                                 n     n
Fluid milk, creamery
  butter, ice cream,
  other dairy products
 n  •   ii
Fluid milk, ice cream,
  other dairy products
 n     .11
Ice cream
Fluid milk, ice cream
Frozen fruits and vegetables
Miscellaneous prepared  foods
Meat packing
Creamery butter, misc.  dairy pats,
Misc.  dairy products
Fluid milk, misc. dairy pdts
Meat packing
                                                 n
                                                 n
                                                  n
                                                  n
                                                 Poultry  dressing
                                                  n     ii
                                                 Creamery butter,  ice  cream
                                                 Fluid milk,  cheese, creamery
                                                  butter,  ice  cream

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                                                                        22
                             TABLE  10

               AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS (Cont'd)
  Location
      Firm
  Product or Process
Caldwell
                      Boise River Basin (Cont'd)
Parma
Mountain Home
Emmet t.
Nampa Creamery Co.
Alpenrose Dairy
Nampa Custom Cannery
General Foods Co.
W. Idaho Potato Growers,
  Inc.
Gem State Potato Chip
  Co., Inc.
Nampa Cider & Vinegar
The Nampa Elevator
Amalgamated Sugar Co.  -
Greenleaf Custorr
  Slaughter
Idaho Meat Packers, Inc.
Johnston Bros.
Carter Packing Co.
Dairymen's Coopera-
  tive Creamery of
  Boise Valley
Flavor Freeze, Inc.
J. R. Simplot Co.

Western Idaho Potato
  Growers, Inc.
Caldwell Flour'Mills
Parma Ice Co.
Mt. Home Ice & Storage
  Co.
Young's Dairy Products
Creamery butter
Fluid milk, icej cream
Canned fruits and vegetables
Frozen fruits and vegetables

Frozen potatoes

Potato chips
Cider and vinegar
Blended and prepared flour
Beet sugar

Meat packing
                                            1!

                                            II
        II

        II
Fluid milk, creamery butter,
  ice cream, dried skim milk,
  other dairy products
Ice cream
Canned, frozen, dehydrated
  potatoes, fruit and vegetables

Frozen potato products
Blended and prepared flour
Meat packing
                                           Fluid milk, misc. dairy products
                        Payette River Basin
Claude's Custom Pack
Emmett Meat Co.
Gem Creamery Co.
Emmett Dairy
Gem Canning Co.
Meat packing
  n       ii
Fluid milk, creamery butter
Fluid milk
Canned  fruits and vegetables

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                                                                          23
                             TABLE  10

              AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS (Cont'd)
   Location
         Firm
Product or Process
Payette
Fruitland
New Plymouth
Council
Weiser  '
Baker '
Nyssa



Homedale

Ontario
     Payette River Basin
Wells & Davies
Farmers Cooperative Creamery
Clover Lawn Dairy
Home Dairies, Inc.
Idaho Canning Co.
Payette Cider & Vinegar Co. '
Bratcher Meat Pack
Frontier Dairy
Allei/'s Custom Cannery
Fruitland Canning Assn., Inc.
Top Canning, Inc.

      Weiser River Basin

Williams- Custom Service
Independent Meat Market
Home Dairies, Inc.
Lewis Berry, Inc.
Weiser Flour Mills
Meat packing
Fluid milk, cheese,
  creamery butter, misc.
  dairy products
Fluid milk
  ii     n
Canned fruits and vegetables
Cider and vinegar
Meat Packing
Fluid milk
Canned fruits and vegetables
Meat packing
  n     n
Fluid milk
Frozen strawberries
Blonriod and prepared flour
       Powder River Basin

Eastern Oregon Meat Co., Inc.
Valley Dairy, Inc.

       Snake River

Treasure Valley Packing Co.
Clover Lawn Dairy
Idaho Canning Co.
Amalgamated Sugar Co.
Owyhee Meat Packers

Boston's Beef House
Pioneer Meat Packers
Farmers Cooperative Creamery
Ore-Ida Foods
Meat packing
Fluid milk, ice cream
Meat Packing
Fluid milk, misc. dairy pdts.
Canned fruits and vegetables
Beet sugar
Meat packing

Meat packing
  n      n
Ice cream
Frozen potatoes,  fruits and
  vegetables, dehydrated
  . potatoes

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Amalgamated  Sugar Co,  refinery at  -\yssa,  and three meat packing




plants, Wells-Eavies at Payette, King  Packing Co. at. Sam-pa,  and.




Swift  and Co.  at  Boise, all provide  substantial employment and




proGuce rcr  si.zaaoie ano far—rlung marine'—s»




     Output  of these plants is, for  the most part, only estimable;




fee? reliable production figures are  available.   A 1953 estimate of




output of dairy products included:




             Creamery butter        22,530,000 pounds




           'Ice cream                1,250,000 gallons




             Cheese         •            35,COG pcur.ds




             ,L/__ 	-^ •_. ", . , J	 ,	i. _L_\.        —.•«-.' ^ *J . L/ 'w' '-/ J O*.. .-^. ^3
                  ' .          .     	         !/,_..„. ..





















amcunred  to 153.5 -;illicn pcur.ds at  I\a~pa,  175.4 million pounds' at




Xyssa,  produced in a season of  153  days  of  round-the-clock  operation.
I/   U •::-••:  Sn?/.:3 -•'.i'v-ir I./sv-'..  • "•.   .'..  ^'\r ••..".-•••• .ie~ort.  b.  ^.

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                                                                      25

      D.  :Forest  Products

      Cn  tHe  nortnern oorcers or une vjeivcral incite '.basm, tr*e slopes

 of the Sawtooth  Mountain Range of Idaho and the Wai Iowa Mountains of

 Oregon contain large tracts of forest.  Most of Boise National Forest,

 portions  of  Payette National Forest, Sawtooth National Forest, and

 Wallowa Whitman  National Forest lie within the -basin, and these  . -

 provide  the  raw  materials for a steadily growing lumber industry.

      The  total extent of ccr—.ercial forest land in southern Idaho is

 estimated by the U. S.  Forest Service to include some 8.1 million acres:

 5.2 r.-iliio-.!  acres of sawtivaber, 2.0 trillion acres of pole tinber, 04

 million  acres cf seedlings and sailings,  0!his land is concentrated on

 the vresttrn  sieves  cf the C^ntinenjal Tivida and the finger valleys



 the -ajar ^.aru of the sawti-ber,  As a result/ abcut 70 percent of

 southern  Idr.hc's wood prcduczs ind^srries e:r>loy."inu.. 85 percent of its •
                                                                I/







 which account for about 43 percent and 35 percent., respectively, of

 lunber -production.   L'odgepole pine, true firs, and Ingelman spruce are

.other cc-r^ereially exploited speciei, with so-e white pine, western

 larch, and  other species also harvested.  Sawtir.ber reserves are

 estimated to amount to roughly 43 billicn board feet.; with Zcuglas

-------

C.-ryheo




Payetta
Counliv
Ac. a
Adams
Boise
Cony on
El-iore
c
Total Lar.d Area C:.rr.cl. rorooi % Lr.r.d Aroa. ir. % Idaho
CAcrei^ .''Ac-.:-r"; Cr.^I. ?.s t . Forest
• . 670, COO 2;000 0.4 Magii
go-: /->, - -. i-50 ''O^ 51.1 2.
3""^ - • ~ ' ^ ; *• """
1.024.000 833.000 GO. 5 5-
371.000 i.COO 0.0 Xegli
1,S50,000 . 393,000 2.:.1 • 2.
-> ; - "- - -. ' - .- -> - -."o •; r>,
J-.-J,U-'J -.•J.VUw' ^...., ^.
Co^r.cl.
Are 2
gible
8
5
gible
6
3
                                                      -- - > -
                                                   A:; iigible
                                                      •J,
22,159,000

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                                                                     27
     A  net annual  growth potential of 1,3 percent per year  suggests  annual

growth  at a rate of about 520 million board feet, ccr.vjared  to production

in  i9o6 or about 275 nillion board feet.—   Southern Idaho  timber stands

however, are  often "remote ana present access dif f icultias,.   lv:eir

exploitation  involves high potential costs, and proceeded sl:~7ly

during  tae moribunc luv:.oar :v:ir~cet existing in the late nineteen-f if ties.



nas ceen a relatively vigorous segment of the natio.u.J.. forest orocucts

industry.,  ,.rv: _cy:.:ent nas gro:.vi in the face of a decline in national

ei^plo/zeat in iur.ibering and related producti ; and sc^^hern  Ic.i.ho's







e~pioy^-ar in. the  Central Snahe Zasin., Id_.ho and the L'* S^
Central Snake Basin
                                     2232-/ •
Idaho           •                    12.0S5-'7      11,54.1:         95OOC5./ .

U.  S.                       •       SOS, 003 £••'   537. CCO       552,0002

I/ Idaho lumber production  reached a record 1.51 billion^ board =eez^_
in 1555.  Though -production subsequently i.;.t;-ir.3a a level or 1.55  oiilion
board feet in  1950,  regional  breakdowns are.no': available.
 e/  Oregon Zept. of  Labor,  lea.  Irvployv-ent Security Agency  covered

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                                                                       28
      The forest products industry of the Central Snake Basin has


 achieved a rather high degree of efficiency and resource utilization.


 Small sawmills producing for local markets have tended to disappear


 from tiie manufacturing scene, being replaced by larger, more efficient


 •units whose output finds its way into national markets, laz-gely in the


 midwest.  A part of the growrh experienced by the area's wood products


 industry has occurre-d in response to expansion of wood pulp output.


 Some roundwcod legged in ;ha Central Snake Basin finds a market at


.midwastern pulp planus.  Sawmill residuals as well as rcuncwcod are


 dispatched to two regional pulp mills, one at Lewistcn, Xdahc where


'the Cler.rwar.er joins the Snake, one at Uailula, Uashington, vr.ere

                             V
•the Snake and Columbia join.—


     . A number of firms mak-^ uo the Central Snake v/ood products


 industry.-  These include independent logging contractors, -whose .  .


 emp-loyment roster may typically vary frcm cne to zhirty persons, more  than


 twcnry 'sawmills, mostly of medium si^e', out with employment varying  from


 four to seven-hundred persons., a veneer planr., a plywood plant, fabricators.


 of structures and structural members, and a pair of box factories.


 Principal firms are listed in Table 13,  woodworking plants are


 mainly small, local cabinet shops employing one to five personso  Not-


 able .arr.ong the woodworking slants i.T. the l-'srshall Fixture Co.  of Payette,


 which employs over thirty r;eoole ih procuc_nv -;.".urcl': zurniture.ror a
 \j ~2':.~~ '.Seise Cascad- C;:s ITallula mill depends  er.zirely  or.  resicua_s

 ror rrs raw maiierra_ mcur^ anc r.'ie company  s nuge  ^.".mrie'C'c p^anc ~LS

 among the mill's -orinci^al suppliers.

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                             TABLE 13

                      FOREST PRODUCTS FIRMS
                                                     29
Location
Elm ore County
Boise










v.'eathe
_, C' ~~ ~ e
....arisen
. Karbur
Gordon
Guy Ha
Ralph
>L C.
— '£ OOUC

i ~"i ch'v " ^3
Firm
rby Logging Co.
roy .,_u::.oar Co.
Cascade Corp,
L'ros ,
-Le Eno Corp.
Harris
rris Lu-ber Co.
Miller Logging
ICelson
ers Lu-ber Co.

rd's Sav-ill Co.
Product
or
Process
Logging
C* -~ ~ -.-•> * "S "
-i • -- -i
i>£-..T.".j- .A. J.
jjC^^^Vlg
Legging
cogging
Sa--— ill
L; o r" '•r in v"
Logging
St.- --ill
Levying
Ssr-iil
Capacity
(1/000 FT/
Dav")
70
"7 j^
70
70
25


35
12 C

30
30
8
Employ-
ment
25

5



20




Cambridge
Cascade
Council
ber Co.
                                                            2.0
                .arry R. Dougias
                Cr^on Hyde
Coker Lovcing Co.       Lcvging
Jones Indus-cries Inc.   ?re-7ab struc-
                          tures
Jones Roof Structures .,
  Inc.                  ?re-?ab ccr.pcn-

Pressure-treated Timber
  Co.       .            Component's
Ostrcn Tivmber £.-
  Xouiding Co.
Iron Mountain Lumber
  Co.

L. C. Smith t Sen
Zoise Cascade Cor^D,
Hays Logging Co,
Long Valley Legging,
  Inc.
loise Cascade Corp.
Glen Harrington         Legging
XacGregor Triangle Co.  Logging
                                          40
                                          50
                                          SC
                                          70
                                                                      14

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                           TABLE  13-^Cont'd)
                        FOREST PRODUCTS FIRMS
                                             Product     Capacity    Employ-
  Location                Firm                 or        (1,000 FT/   ment
	.	_	.Process	Day)	

 Council              jack Ds shephard    Logging
 Emmett               Boise Cascade Corp. Sawmill, chips,
                                            moldings,
                                            components      '600        700
                      Fuller & Baker      Logging
                      DeDee Box Factory   Boxes
Fruitvale             Rice Logging Co.    Logging             30
Horseshoe Bend        Hoff Lumber Co.     Saw.r.ill, mold-

                                                              63
                      M. W. Renfroe
KcCall   '             Brown's Tie & .       Sawmill, ties,'
                        Lumber Co.'   •      paneling,         80        230
                                            flooring,
                                            components
                                                                      •  80
                      George  ikola         Logging
                      Lake Fork Lumber
                        Co_                Sawmill
                      Seatin!s, Inc,       Logging.            50        22

                        Co,                Logging
Meridian              Idaho Pine  Co.       Saw.r.ill. molding,   55
                                             paneling,
                                             components
Mountain Home         Sawtooth Lumber
                        Co,                Sawmill-Timbers     50
                      Engelm'j.Tt &  Landers   Logging
                      J.  E< Johnson       Logging
                      Jones Sawmill       Logging
New Meadows           J.  I. Morgan, Inc.   Legging            300       105
                      Pack Legging  Co.     Logging.
Gem County            Ola Lumber  Co.       Saw::, ill
                                           Logging     '        40
Boise  County          Placerville Lumber
                        Co,                Sawmill     '        10  .
                                           Logging             15         5
Adams  County          Price Valley  Tim-
                        ber,  Inc.         Sawmill             75        55
                                           Losgins             80        20

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                               TABLE IS-'CCcnt'd)                          31

                             FOREST PRODUCTS FIRK3
                                             Product     Capacity   Employ-
 Location                 Firm                  or        (1,000 FT/   merit
	.	.	Process	Day)     ,
                                                       '  24,000,COO2?
 Payette         Payette  Ply.vocd Corp.   ?ly\;ood
                 Idaho  Venaer ?rod. , Inc. Veneer
 Nan? a           Idaho  Box i Lu:.:ber Co.  Bo::;s
 Ontario •        Timber La~.ir.ators, Inc. 1-ra-rab.
                                            er.ts                         25
 Baker '          Baker  Lumber Kills, Inc. Sa-.:.:.ill           45          33
                 Burnt  River Lumber Co.   . Sav.-.r.ill,          60         147
                                             molding,
                                            .paneling,
                                             •chips
                                           Sa^il!,  panel-
                                             ing            100         125
                                              j^>	O





                 Eastern  Oregon Lu--ber
                   ../111                    £<•-..-.-ill                       15

                 Bruin Prairie logging    L:g^ing           40           6
 Baker County.    Chr-ii; Bros.              Locgin-g


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     The significance of forest products activities to the economic




life of the Central Snake Basin is evident.  It accounted for 22 percent




of all employment in rnanuf acturiiig in the area in i960.  In Valley, Adams,




and Boise County, forest products provided almost ail manufacturing




employment ; - and in Gem, 21moi-e, and Baker Counties, forest products




accounted for T-rell over half of zozal manufacturing employment .  In terms




of values added by manufacturing," lumbar and weed produces manufacturing




in Idaho resulted in values added retailing roughly s?,050 per employee


        I/
       .~   _.f the state figure .V.E.V be reasonably distributed on the basis
       .
of emplG>ment, then values added by manufacturing in uhe Central Snake Easin




exceeded S13 million rn 1550, ane a""ear to have risen rather sharply in
I/  Annual  Survey of Manufacturing  (1961),  i-art  8:  Mountain

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                                                                     32




     S.  Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction




     '-.'hile food processing and lumbering continue to dominate  Central




Snake manufacturing, othar manufacturing activities have  displayed




vigorous growth, as increasing population and industrial  diversifi-




cation have opened new markets.  In tha 1550-50 decade, a new  manu-




facturing job in occupations other than lumbering and food processing




was created, on an  average, for every two jobs in the dominant rp.anu-




facturinj industries; and tha percentage of the labor force engaged




in miscellaneous 'manufacturing expand3a from 2.3 to 3.8.




     Shoving more rapid growth than food processing, the  fabrication




of mobile dwellings became an important industry of the area  in the




lat-i ninac^ei'i-Zi l'd±z and early si::.:ies .  ho less than nina firms




were-established — five in 2oise; two in ivampr.} 'one each in Caldweli




and V'eisar.  Guerdon Industries ("loise) and Xit Manufacturing  Ccmoeriy




(Caldwall) are the largest, vith employment e::caLding 100 at  ;aak




periods.                                           .




     Printing and publishing provide a surprisingly significant




part of the region's industrial diversification.  Almost  every town




has a weekly newspaper, and three dailies  (in Boise, iTampa, c.nd




Caldwell) are supported by the thinly populated region.   I:: addition,




a weli-ectablishad publishing house, Caxton ?ress of Caldwell. and




the Syms-York. Company of Boise give, the area two relatively large




and elaborate printing establishments.

-------
                                                                    33
     Local agricultural and food-processing industries have provided




markets for diverse products.  Beall Pipe and Tank Corporation




(Boise; fabricates farm implements, steel tc^ar-s, and irrigation




equipment.  Parma falser Lifter Company (Parma) produces pumps




whose main uso is in irrigation.  HcCallum Harvester, Inc. (Boise) .




produces harvesting and seeding machinery for use in cultivation




of sugar beets and potatoes.  Western Conveyor Company (Boise)




fabricates various materials-handling devices., originally con-




ceived in response to food -roces-sors' needs, though the range




of markets has since broadened.  The number of smaller f'L~£ .




largely serving local industrial and consumer markets, ccrU'ir.ues




to expand, and has been a noticeable feature of the overall trend




to urbanization.




     /•hile .miscellaneous manufacturing is only beginning to affect




the accncmic structure of the Central Snake area, construction hc.s




for many-years been a major force.  -In cerr.s of employment, it hc.s




consistently occupied'about eight percent of the labor force.  In




part, this is explainable by a high relative rate of population




growth.  In larger part it may be traced to the comparatively




undeveloped character of the region, and the consequent opportunity




for large-scale developmental projects.  During the last deci.de,




this took the form of dam building  (Idaho Power Company's Snake




River facilities), highway improvements, extensive urban develop-




ment centered on the City of Boise, and installation c~ the Mountain




Home military complex.

-------
                                                                    34
     While the import of capital in connection with development o'f




the region has bser. tha principal factor in maintaining high levels




of cor.struc.tiop, activity—a characteristic of most parts of the




western United States — the Central Snr.ke area also benefits from




the location in Boise of the headquarters or the Morrisor.-Knudsen




Company, one of the world's largest construction fim:s.  The admin-




ins t rat ive and depot functions of the.company at Soisa provide a




solid, core of construction employment, considerably less cyclical




than that typical of the industry.

-------
                                                                      35
     F.  Irade and Services




     Trade and services for the Central  Snake Basin are supplied in




large part from the City of Boise.  Indeed,  Boise,  Idaho's capital,




supplies governmental  and administrative services for a much larger




area, as '.veil  as providing many whol esal i ng  and professional functions for




all of southern Idaho and a good part of eastern Oregon.




     Boise's specialization in services  has  contributed to some apparent




scarcity of service availability in other  areas; a  lack that is intensifed




by population sparsity and, in some places,  by the  competing claims of




adjacent communities for the custom of the rural market for services.




Thus, the outlying communities of Weiser (Washington County),  Baker




(Baker County), and Mountain Home (Elmore  County) have all. developed '.




a fairly broad range of -services; while  Payette, Gem, and Malheur




Counties and the eastern part of Canyon  County have developed co'rr.T.ercial




patterns based on the presence of several  communities within a relatively




restricted area, each contributing in part to satisfying service xc'i airr.s




of an area embracing several towns and the interstitial rural  population.




     The variations in service availability  resulting from -the presence




of a major service center within an area of  lev; average population density




are suggested in Table lA, which lists- by  county the proportion of the




labor force employed in trades and services  in I960.  Although it




contains a State capital, the Central Snake  Basin had a somewhat lower




proportion of service employment than the  Nation.  Indeed, despite the




contributions to service employment created  by government, the service




ratio was  .ov/er than that for the eleven western states, and lower




than the national ratio in every county  out  one.

-------
                                                                36
                            TABLE 1*t

COUNTY SERVICE EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE, 1960i/
                                         Percent Service Employment
	Area	

Ada County   •                                   •  '  68.8
Canyon County                                       5^.^
Washington County      '                             ^8.8
Baker County     .                                   k8.5
Val1ey County                                       k6. ~f
Malheur County                                      kS>5
Payette County                                      k'j.k
Adams County                                        ^3-0
Owyhee County                                       3^-8
Gem County                                          3^-6
El more County                                       3^-5
Boise County      .                                  23-7

Central Snake Basin                                 55-8
Eleven Western States                               58.1
United States                                       57-'^

a/ U. S. Census of Population, I960.
     The extent to which the City of Boise dominates trade and services

in the Central Snake Basin is suggested by Table 15-  With just over 29

parcenr of the Basin's I960 population, the Boise urbanized area provided

roughly k? percent of all service employment in the Basin, end over a
                           _/
third of total employment in each service industry classification except

railroad transportation.

-------
                                                                      37

                            TABLE  15

Proportion of Total 1950 Service Eraployrnant Occurring in Boisa Urban  A.rea—'

    Railroads and railway express                             • 6%
    Other transportation and warehousing                      36
    Communications and utilities.                             46
    Wholesale trade                                          ' 41 •
    Retail trade             '                                 37
    Financial, business and repair  service             .       55
    Personal service                                          58
    Education                                                 33
    Other professional services                               58
   • Public administration                                     61
    All  services                                              45

_a/ Source:  U. S. Census of Population.  The  table assur.es that employment
.distribution in the Boise urbanized area was  siv.rilar to that  of residents
of the City of .Boise.  Correspondence with Ada Cour.::y totals 'is high  and
the Bicture seems 'faithful.

-------
                                                                    38
      The- rather low level of service availability and rate of growth

of service employment relative, to the Nation (C? Table 6) may be traced

largely to low population density.  Contributing to the region's deficiencies

as a market for services is a level of personal income distinctly below

national and regional standards, as suggested by the data in Table 16,

contrasting Idaho income per capita from 1950 .to 1952 with that of the

United States, the Rocky Mountain States, and the Pacific Coast States.


                             TABLE 16

           Comparison of Par-Capita Income,. 195C-1952^//
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 •
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
a/ U.S.

• Idaho
1279
-1446
1574
1499
1494
15 13
1654
"I *" ~i <"•
io / o
•1728
1793
1755
1810
1941
Dept.of Co
U.S.
1491
1649
1727
1788 '
1770
1866
1975
2C48
2064
2163
2217
2267
2366
mmerce : Survey

Pacific Coast
1733
1975
2068
2103
2039
2210
2326
2397
• 2430
2572
2625
2637
2SOO
of Current Business,

xocky Mountain
1425
• 1642
' 1699
1657
- f - i~)
IQJJ: •
• 1701
1793
1834
1965
2023
2083 -
2104-
2205
August, 1963.
     VJhile Idaho per-capita income is probably understated in the table,

due to the inability of such figures to adequately reflect the substantial

non-cash income of those engaged in agriculture, the general magnitude and

the persistence of the gap between Idaho and adjoining areas  are obvious.

Pressure en farm prices, which contributed to a national lag in  agricultural

income, is at least partially responsible for maintaining the ir-ocme cis-
                             •»'
parity between Idaho. and adjoining are33- The level of wage and salary

-------
                                                                     39
payments in the state has also worked to hold down the level of personal

income, as'suggested by Table 17 which compares average hourly earnings

in manufacturing and in retail sales in Idaho and adjoining states.
                             TABLE 17

        Comparison of Average Hourly Earnings, Kfg. 6: R.etail Trade,
                    Idaho  and Bordering Statesfi/
Average Ho-
. 1950

Manuf ac tvrr ing ,



Retail trade,


a/ U. S. Deot.
and Areas, 193


Idaho
Oregon
Utah
rlontana
Idaho
Oregon
Utah
of Labor:
9-62.

$1.
1 .
1.
1.
1.


Srrslov


56
79
41
61
04


merit

1

$2
2
2
2
'T
i.
2
"-
and

u r ly
960

.25
.55
.46'
.45
.79
.12
.93
^ c'. ITT:

Ecumi1
19

$2
2
2
2
1
. 2
'2
i"c",s

-:~s As 7,
52 1950

.34
.64 115
.66 90
.53 103
.90
.34
.06
Statistics

Idaho
1962


113
114
110

123
109
for States

     'Chile no per-capita income figures are available  for the Central

Snake Basin distinct from, the State of Idaho, personal  inccrr.e.,  as measured

by family income, would appear to be  lower and  to have  risen no'more

rapidly.  The analysis of growth of Tr.ediavi family income in the counties

of the Basin presented in Table 18 indicates  that in  1960 only  one  county

in- the area >iad a family income level  above the  Nation's, and  that  inccr.ie

growth has lagged behind national and regional  standards, in  spite  of  the

significant growth of manufacturing during the  fifties.

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                                                                           40
                                  Table  18




             Trend of Median Family Income, by County, 19li9-1959 I


Area
Pacific Coast States
Ada County
Mountain States
Nation
Valley County
Baker County
Idaho
Central Snake Basin
Adams County
Boise County
Elmore County
Canyon County
Malheur County
Gem County
Payette County
Washington County
Ovryhee County
1 9
Median Family
Income
$351*5
3250
3101
3073
3630
2803
30k6
2912 b/
3013
236k
3171
2768.
2752
2629
2315
2600
2257
h 9
As % of
U.S.
112
106
101

' 118 • '
91
99
95
98
77.
103
90
90
86
76.
85
70
1 9
Median Family
Income
$6572 •
5868
5660
-5660
51*22
5266
5259 .
5088 '
1*976
1*771*.
1*769
1*596
1*551*
1*1*67
1*310
1*231
1*199
5 9
As % of
U.S.
116 '
.* - lOli
100 .

95
93
93
: 90
80' '
81*
8k
• 81
. 80
79
76
75-
71*
1959
As % of
19U9
185
' 166
183
I8k
11*9
188
• 172
.175
166
202
150
166
'165
170
• 186
163
186
a/ U. S.  Census of Population,  1950,  I960.



b/  Mean  of county medians weighted by.population.

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                                                                     41
     G.  Minerals and Mining

     The working of mineral deposits, has, from time to time, been a

significant part of the economy of the Central Snake Basin.  For the

most part, such deposits in recent years have proved marginal or near

marginal, soon depleted, or abandoned under all but the most favorable

market circumstances.  The 1958 dissolution of Valley County mining

enterprises that had supplied a substantial portion of the'Nation's .

supply of antimony and tungsten, as well as important amounts of mercury,

represented the end. of the latest period of mineral exploitation of more

than regional significance.

     In the mid--nineteen-sixti.es mineral industry activity is largely

restricted to providing sand and gravel for local and highway construction;

production of lime in Baker, Malheur and Canyon Counties--principally '

for use in regional sugar refineries — arid the operation of the Oregon

Portland Cement Co. at Lime (Baker County), whose employment of about

125 persons has been maintained by dam construction.  In recent years,

mineral commodities which have been developed in the Central Snake Basin

included:                '                                         .     .

          Columbium-Tantalum, obtained from dredging of alluvial sand

     deposits in Valley County, represented practically all of U. S.

     production in the late nineteen-fifties.  Ilmenits (a source of

     titanium); garnet, for use in abrasives; rare earths and other

     minerals were obtained from the same source..  Production ended in

     1959.
!_/  The closure of these mines made Stibnite, which had a 1950 population
of over 700, a ghost town, contributed to a 14 percent decline in Valley
County population, and a decline from a level of family income 15 percent
above the national average in 1950 to one four percent below the Nation in
1960.

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                                                                      42





   .  Gold and silver are obtained by small scale placer mining.and as




a by-product of other mining activities..




     Mercury has been obtained in Washington County by open-pit mining,




in Valley County and Malheur County.




     Iron ore is produced at Iron Mountain, near Weiser.  Ore is




beneficiated at the site, and shipments have averaged up to 55-60 percent




iron content.




     Titanium concentrates derived from ilmenite deposits in Valley County




and elsewhere in Idaho have been reprocessed by the J. R. Sinrpiot Co. plant




in Boise.  Garnet abrasive material has been similarly produced.




    Uranium has been derived as a by-product of Valley County euxenite




deposits. .Processing of the ores v?as carried out in other parts of the




Nation.




     Clays used in producing building brick are found in Ada and Elmore




counties; 'bentonite, used as drilling mud and canal liner, has been taken




in Owyhee County.




     Gypsum, marketed as agricultural gypsum,-has been produced intermittently




from a surface mine near Ueiser (Washington County).




     Lime stone, and liir.e are produced in Baker, Malheur, arid Canyon




counties.  Markets are found in regional cement plants, sugar refineries,




and in agriculture.  Chemical Lime Co., Baker, produces large quantities




of quicklime used in production of calcium carbide and cyanamid, in pulp




manufacturing and in steel and aluminum plants.




   •  Lead and zinc have been produced in small quantities from Gem and




Boise county deposits and cooper ore has been produced  in insignificant




amounts in Adams County.




     Value of mineral shipments over the five years 1957-1961 is listed




by county in Table 19.

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                                                                          43
                                TABLF  19
                                                         a/
                  VALUE OF MINERAL PRODUCTION, 1957-1961 -
County


Ada

Adams


Boise .

Canyon

Elmore


Gem


Owyhee


Payette

Valley
Washington
Baker
Malheur
Value of Shipments
1957   1958   1959

 380    611    613

 202    N.A.     22
 ($1.OOP's)
1960   1961
N.A.
N.A.

N.A.
41    348
             500

             N.A.
N.A.      34      2     35    N.A.

 185     170    263   . 282    465

 402     689    520    196     91


  95      44     12    214    194
         79
N.A.    —    106     37

1182   1213    641     35   N.A.
 578   1056    484    840   N.A.
N.A.   N.A.   N.A.   N.A.   4927
 909    845   1008    457    735
                               Products
Sand & gravel,  clays, gold

Sand £ gravel,  copper, silver,
  gold

Sand & gravel,  gold, silver

Lime, sand & gravel, pumice

Sand & gravel,  gold, columbium,
  tantalum, silver,  clays.

Sand & gravel,  gold, silver,
  lead, -zinc

Sand & gravel,  gold, clays,
  siIyer, lead

Sand & gravel

Colubiurn-tantalum, mercury,
  monazite, ilmenite, rare
  earths, sand  & gravel, garnet,
  thorium, gold, silver.

Sand & gravel,  mercury, iron
  ore, gypsum,  gold, silver.

Cement, stone,  lime, sand &
  gravel, clays, gold, silver

Sand & gravel,  mercury, stone,
  gold, clays,  silver, lime.
a./  Source:  Minerals Yearbook, 1958-1961.

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                                                                     44




                 III.  ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH







    ( An economic forecast for the period 1960 to, 2010 must be understood




in terms of probabilities, of the inter-action of 'trends and resources.




Major assumptions underlying this study have been developed for the




Nation and the Pacific Northwest by inter-agency economic study committees.




Application of the growth rates established in these assumptions to




specific areas such as the Central Snake Basin is judgmental, involving .




a consideration of the resource base, the evolution of social attitudes,




and degree of maintenance of trends.          '




    (On the strength of such procedures, output levels may be established




for principal industries; and the hypothesizing of productivity and labor




force participation rates permits projection of population dispersion.




The end product., however, must be viewed as a gene-ral outline of probabil-'




ities, neither a prediction nor a detailed industrial forecast.)







     A.  Agriculture




     Agricultural production may be expected to continue to be the major




force underlying .the economy.  The area is a favored one with regard  to




fertility and adaptability of soils; and climate and growing season  lend




themselves to agricultural production.




     The raw input of  land is not expected to increase to an appreciable




extent.  The Soil and Water Conservation Needs Inventory for the States




of Oregon and Idaho offers the basic framework of  lands available  for




various purposes  in 1958, together with an estimate for 1975.  This  is




presented in Table 20.

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                                                                        45
                           TABLE  20
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS, 1958 AND 19^5  (000*s ACRES)
Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elinor e County
(Boise River Basin)
Boise County
Valley County
Gem County
Payette County
(Payette River Basin)
Washington County
Adams County
(Weiser River Basin)
Owyhee County
Malheur County
Baker County
TOTAL 1
1958
Crop-
land
109.6
229.0
49 oO
(387.6)
14o7
59.7
51.4
59,1
(184.9)
114.6
45.4
(160.0)
93.2
220.1
l"a- (466.4)
,198.9
Pasture-
lanc1
197.5
74.2
348.7
(620.4)
80o3
14.5
153,7
128.0
(376.5)
488 „ 3
135.0
(623.3)
505.0
1,281,4
642'3 (2429.2)
4,045.4 1
1975
Crop-
land
113.6
243.0
140 06
(502.2).
10o7
52.9
55,2
58,6
(177.4)
114.1
44,9
(159.0)
95,9
220,1
157-° (473.0)
,311.6 .
Pasture-
land
178.7
62o8
31002
(551o
77.6
20.3
149 oO
127.8
(374.
484.4
134.8
(619.
505.0
1,386.4
"3-° (2524.
4,070.0 .




7)




7)


2)


4)


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                                                                      46
     The principal addition to cropland indicated by the inventory is




in Elmore County, where the Bureau of Reclamation has proposed a complex




group of irrigation possibilities that would bring 100,000 acres under




cultivation.  Unquestionably, the addition of irrigation capabilities will




have a greater bearing on increased output than any change in total acreage




of land devoted to agricultural use.   At this time, the Bureau of Reclama-




tion has considered projects involving the new irrigation of 400,000 acres




in the Central Snake Basin, of which the Elmore County projects involve the




largest single parcel.  In addition,  individual irrigators show no sign




of slacking the pace at which they add to irrigation.  Private irrigation




additions between 1959 and 1963 may be estimated at something in excess




of 80,000 acres.  For the most part,  private development takes the form




of pumping from wells; but at least two ambitious south-side Snake Projects




involve lifts up the steep walls of the Snake River Canyon'--and in one




case, a total of 40,000 irrigated acres is envisaged.




     Obviously the pace of new irrigation must slow over the next fifty




years; there are limits to the availability of soil and water.  Indeed,




maturation of the  potato-processing industry and the adjustment to the




expansion of the market for beet sugar (created by disruption of established




supply sources) indicate that the exceptional market growth that spurred




development of irrigation after 1959 is not presently a factor in promoting




new irrigation.  On the other hand, plans to add some 140..COG acres over




the next decade seem well conceived, and additional  individual additions.




on a smaller scale seem to be assured.  To establish a figure for planning




use, it is assumed that the rate of addition to irrigation between 1959




and 1985 will be equal to that of the period 1949-63, or  .85 percent per




year.  On these terms, some 1.2 million acres would  be irrigated in 1985.

-------
                                                                      47
If  the  rate is extended to 2010,  the total amount of  land under

irrigation would amount to 1.5 million acres.

     Crop patterns may, in general, be expected to follow existing  trends.

Outputs of cattle, dairy.products,' sugar beets, and feed grains  seem

likely  to continue to rise.  Additional candidates for rising production

include swine, poultry, and vegetable products.  Growth of Pacific  Coast

markets and the constantly increasing degree of processing of products
           •/
suggest  varied outputs for any area capable of efficiently producing a

range of agricultural products.

     The employment opportunities offered by agriculture may be  expected

to continue to shrink.  While the fantastic improvement of labor productivity

in farming which marked the nineteen-fifti.es can not  be expected'to continue,

the techniques now available would permit a considerable reduction.in the

work force simply through continued consolidation of  smaller than efficient

farms.  It is reasonable,  however, to expect a ICWP-./J  than national  rate'

of employment decline, in view of the large relative,  iize of present farms,

and the prospect for substantial additions to irrigation.-!'   It is

anticipated,  then, that the area will continue to increase its proportion

of total national employment in agriculture.

     Setting a target for agricultural employment is  awkward.  For  the

Nation as a whole, a very steep rate of decline has been forecast to

1975, one which anticipates no slowing of the massive productivity  gains

              2/
of the  1950's.—   For the reasons outlined-in the preceding paragraph,
!_/  R. E. Struthers, Bureau of Reclamation economist, in the Role of
Irrigation in Community Economic Structure, U. S. Dept. of interior,
Feb. 1963, suggested that one new farm job is created for every 100 acres
brought under irrigation.

_2/  cf Soecial Labor Force Report No. 28, Employment-Projections by Industry
and Occupation. 1960-1975, and Manpower Report of the President, both U.ST
Dept. of Labor, March 1963" publications.

-------
                                                                    48
it v/ould seem unreasonable to apply such a rate to the study area.



Moreover, maintenance of improving labor .productivity at a rate in excess



of 5 percent a year for another quarter of a century strains credulity.



Accordingly, the labor requirements of agriculture 'in the Central Snake



Basin are projected to decline at a rate equal to 75 percent of the 2 percent



national irate for the period 1919-1959, or at 1.5 percent per year, to


     !/
1985.    Application of this rate projects agricultural employment to



12,000 in 1985.
I/ John P. Henderson, Changes in the Industrial Distribution of Employment,

1919-59. University of Illinois Bureau of Economic and Business Research,


1962.

-------
    49
     B.  Food Processing




     The prospect of increased  agricultural outputs, based on more




efficient  techniques and the expansion of irrigation,  promises the




food -process ing industry of the Central c'aike Basin a  continued ade-




quate  source  cf v&w •.•natarial*- ..   The -prod act 3 <•£ -he industry will,




in all' probability, continue to be  those new p-;:,vix.,^;.j —rivjt:: .. dairy




goods, sugar--\;ith somewhat more emphasis on pro.::'; s.-.=.i ^.v;/: :: and




vegetables.   These are materials which the region  it \ si"  ;.^:-..ed




to produce..  ar:d which enjoy favorable demand trends.   Th.::  v-rc-vesses




tc be  employed are not predictable; technology will ur.que;.-;'i-.-::ablj




change — freeze-dryi^g, for example, may well become prevalr.; ir.  :'-.s




near future --but oui'-put. levels  consistent with. .c'c-.-. •.-..'•joure.;. '. ..se  >. .d




Cert-.us Bureau prGjectio'-.^ of populat.'.o.i taay be pro ;•: M. i.^ .




     Xeat:  p^.ck\r^ holds uhs potenti^-1 fox vig3V'-v.s i^r;v...-




Idaho  proi-ac^:.or. of meat animals is vresently aboat cw.  .




tim.=t!  its  slaughter , in terms of wei^v-it.  Product 10..  -.-f :::




over,  is only slightly higher than  stats cons .-.v- .       '. ;.




is well able to slaughter, and  export, fir.i;-': . •.    . .  -r;i--:.-."-




its  stock,  of presently exported animals.  This .-• _ld  be-




with the trend in force in the  industry--packi-  near




production rather than in consumption centers.  iince  .'.-..:




ports  not  only cattle ; but the  feed to fatten them,, chc  .




for  cattle feeding, slaughter,  and  meat packing are all :^   .ible




     Another regional factor to be  taken .'.r.t:' account ii  ~  .: fact




that the western states have a  marked, thov.:--- t lowly  c c  : .  -AJ, de-




ficiency in pork production relative to consumption.   AS  efforts  to
:vrth.




:. half




.., more-




'. ne area




 • from




 -pir.t.




  it 3

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                                                                      50
  increase hog production succeed, hog slaughter should grow to fill the

  production vacuum whose dimensions are suggested in Table 21.


                             TABLE 21    £/

             PRODUCTION,  SLAUGHTER AND CONSUMPTION
              OF MEAT,  1959  (1,000 POUNDS LIVE WEIGHT)

Pacific Northwest
11 Western States
Idaho
Pacific Northwest
11 Western States
Idaho
a/ Lord, Bruce P..
Production
Hogs
162.8
436.0
43.4
Cattle
1,210.9
5,398.5
447.5
Potential for Meat Packing in
Slaughter
337.2
1,102.0
38.9
Consumption
499.1
2,456.0
63.1
824.0 793.3
4,667.7 3,903.7
173.4 100.3.
Northeastern Oregon.
Oregon State Department of Planning and Development,  October 1963.


       Demand conditions,  too, are favorable.  Per-capita consumption

  of meat in the United States has been rising at a one percent annual

  rate since 1950, with the rise occurring entirely in beef products;

  consumption of pork and mutton has declined.  Given the present trend

  of average income, and the preference for meat as a food, there is

  no reason to anticipate saturation or reversal of demand.

       The procedure for estimating the dimensions of growth of the

  meat-packing industry involves application of rates based on three

  factors:  (1) continued growth of per-capita demand at about one per-

  cent per year;  (2) growth of national population, about 1.9 percent .

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                                                                   51


per year to 1985, almost two percent to 2010 (U. S.  Bureau of Census,

P-25, .series II); and (3) growth derived from regional advantage-

processing near the point of production--about one percent a year.

     Sugar refining offers a somewhat more touchy projection problem.

Although per-capita consumption of sugar has been fixed for several

decades at 110 to 115 pounds per year, beet sugar has filled a grow-

ing portion of that total.  With disruption of normal supply channels

following the suspension of the Cuban quota, and the consequent lift-

ing of domestic production quotas, the advance in production of beet

sugar was particularly rapid.  Table 22 suggests the course of this

phenomenon.

                        '.TABLE 22
   SUGAR PRODUCTION IN U".   S. AND  PRINCIPAL  SUPPLYING AREAS;
                 1945-1962  (1,000'S TONS RAW VALUE)
Yearly Average or Crop Year
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
10,259
11,929
12,271
14,320
7,171
7,298
Beet
1,515
1,784
2 , 100
2,450
2,404
2,585
Beet & °L of 1945-
100
119
139
162
159
!71
      The advance in output of beet  sugar  was most marked  in 1963,

 when the industry delivered 55,403,450 CWT,  compared  to 45,155,535

 CWT in 1962.  The 22.5 percent increase in deliveries was marked by

 the large scale acceptance of beet  sugar  on the eastern seaboard for

 the first time, with industrial users supplying the principal demand.

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                                                                  52


      Some moderation of  the  pace  of  production expansion created by

 the   elasticity  of supply  of beet sugar  is  indicated by the.con-

 traction of previously inflated sugar prices  in  1963-64.  .But it is

 unlikely that  the  beet sugar industry will  give  up  its gains. —'

 The  Snake Basin  has  had  more than its share of these.  Between 1949

 and  1959 the output  of sugar beets in the Upper  and Central Snake

 Basins  increased from 1.37 million tons  to  almost 2.4 million tons,

 or by 75 percent—half again the  overall rate of growth.

      In order  to arrive  at reasonable output projections, it is

 assumed that:

      (1) Sugar  output increased  at  the  national rate for beet sugar,

 or about 30 percent,  between 1959 and 1963.

      (2) There  will be  no per-capita loss  of sugar consumption. —

      (3) Beet sugar will  resume  the process  of  increasing its share

 of the  total.market  for  sugar  at  the .7  percent  rate of 1950 to 1960.

      Processed potatoes, whose output and market acceptance skyrocketed

'during  the  last  decade,  shoul'd also  show substantial increases in pro-

 duction. It would appear,' however,  that the major  growth of the in-

 dustry  will take place in  eastern Idaho, where the  advantages of potato
 a/ The permanence  of the  gains  made  by beet  sugar  are  tacitly  acknowl-
    edged by the failure  to apportion the  Cuban quota'among  other
    foreign producers.  Since  the domestic lands suitable  to growing
    sugar cane are  limited, and, in effect, a part  of the  Cuban quota
    has been arrogated by  beet sugar, the  policy problems  involved  in  a
    rollback of beet  production  by a  realignment of the quota to re-
    store the cane/beet balance  seem  unlikely to be encountered.
                                           o
 b_/ This may be a somewhat debatable  conclusion. General  recognition
    of excessive caloric  intake  of Americans  has, among other phenomena,
    involved efforts  to curtail  sugar consumption.   Should this persist,
    the resulting loss of  per-capita  consumption would  be  unlikely  to
    result in development  of substitutive  outlets,  since the domestic"
    price structure excludes the possibility  of export, except  under
    massive subsidies.

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                                                                        53


      culture over other .agricultural production are more marked than in

      the Central Snake area..  Increased efficiency--including  the  stretch-

      out of the  production season from the present  120-150  days to about
                    \
      200 days by 1985—should  be  expected.  It  is unlikely,  however,  that

      total output will grow faster than population.

           The projection  of output for potato processors, then,  is based

      on more efficient utilization of capacity  rather  than  aggressive

      expansion.   Embodying the efficiency  increment in a stretch-out  of

      the processing campaign from an average of 135 days to  200 days  each

      year, it is assumed  that  a similar rate of output expansion—equal to

      1.4 percent per year,  less than forecast national population  growth--

      is maintained through the succeeding  quarter century.1

           Processing of dairy  products,  like the dairy farming  upon which

      it is built,  has  expanded .vigorously  in the Central Snake  region,  and

      should continue to rise,  based on the trend toward greater per-capita

      consumption of dairy products.   Table 23,  which contrasts  population

      growth and  marketing of whole milk and cream, indicates the relative .

      growth of dairying in Idaho.
                                TABLE 23
          MARKETING TRENDS FOR WHOLE MILK AND CREAM COMPARED TO
                      POPULATION TRENDS, 1949-1959
                                         1959 as a percent of 1949
  Area	
                                     Population	Pounds of milk sold.
United States                           118                     141
Pacific Coast States                    140                     139
Mountain States                         135                    .166
Idaho                                   113                     176

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                                                                    54


     With consumption of milk products rising nationally at a rate

about  twice that of population, it becomes clear that the needs of

the  fast-growing Pacific Coast states, particularly California, are

creating expanding markets for Idaho dairy farmers.  With something

over half of Idaho's dairy products produced in the Central Snake

Basin--and the portion is rising—the area should be a principal

beneficiary of the trend.

     Output targets are based on three considerations:

     (1)  Growth of national population,

     (2)  Growth of par-capita consumption, about  .5 percent per year,

     (3) . Growth due to the locational.advantages resulting from avail-

ability of suitable agricultural land and propinquity to areas of

rapid  population growth; this amounted to about 2.5.percent per year

during the last decade.  It is unlikely to be so high in the future,

since  transfer of farmland otherwise employed would occur if shortage

pushed dairy prices up appreciably.  Arbitrarily, this factor is

assumed to even out at a  .5 percent rate during the course of the study

period.

     Other, processed agricultural products should display significant
                                                 /
growth.  The Central Snake Basin's ability to provide a variety of  raw

.materials should interact with the trend to greater processing of

foods  to create a sustained growth of output of fruits, vegetables,

and  prepared  foods.  Without examining trends for  specific products,

it. is  assumed  that output of miscellaneous food products will grow  at

the  rate of population, with an added annual increment of  .5 percent--

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                                                                   55
that being the approximate difference between the Nation's rate of

population growth and of expansion of the index of food-processing

output for the twentieth century, and for the recent period,_1947-

1958. £/

     Output projections are summarized in Table 24.  Sugar output

is based on 1959 production, meat production on an estimate of

slaughter capacity, potato production is an estimate based on plant

capacity and total southern Idaho-eastern Oregon production.  Other

processing is presented in the form of an index number.


                            TABLE 24
         OUTPUT PROJECTIONS, PROCESSED FOODS, 1960-2010


Product                              1960      1985      2010
Sugar  (capacity, tons/day)           9,100    17,700    34,000
Meats  (cattle slaughter, head/day)     600     1,500     4,000
Potatoes (capacity, tons/day)        2,800     4,000     5,700 •
Dairy Products  (production index)      100       200       400
All Other (production index)           100       180       330
     The level of employment to be derived from the expansion of food

processing involves the problem of productivity.  During the 1950-1960

decade, output per man hour in a cross section of food-processing

activities rose at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent--with the gains

distributed among segments of the industry with astonishing consistency,

Continued growth of employment productivity on this order could result

in attainment of 1985 and 2010 production projections with no increase

in the  labor force.
£L/ Trends and Patterns in U.S. Food Consumption  (Agriculture Handbook
No.  214), U.S. Department of Agriculture; June 1961.

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                                                                  56
     Such an eventuality seems unlikely,  however.   Shorter average




working hours would seem an early result  of continued productivity




gains, if past history may serve as a guide; and maintenance of so




marked a rate of improvement also seems a doubtful matter.  The U. S.




Department of Labor has projected that increased employment in all




manufacturing will occur at a 1.3 percent annual rate between 1960




and 1975 to meet the Nation's need for goods.  Because productivity




gains in food processing were equal to those of all manufacturing




in the last decade, it would appear reasonable to  assume a similar




correspondence in the future; and since it has been assumed that




the Central Snake Basin's output of processed foods will serve a




growing portion of the total national demand, a rate of gain some-




what in excess of the rate for all manufacturing would seem plausible.




Employment in food processing, then, is projected, for design purposes,




to rise at a rate equal to the national rate of population growth, with




productivity gains supplying the incremental product to meet demands




arising from larger per-capita consumption.  This  assumption places




employment among food processors at about 8.5 thousand in 1985.

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                                                                      57



     C.  Forest Products




     •The output of forest products of the Central Snake Basin may be




anticipated to expand.  Although the declining trend of per-capita use




of lumber continues, other wood-based products--notably paper and plywood--




continue to display vigorous demand patterns that contribute to the




need to utilize more intensively the inelastic supply of forests.




     It may be assumed with relative, assurance that development of the




Central Snake Basin's timber supplies will become increasingly intensive.




Coastal forest areas are, for the most part, being exploited at, or




above, sustained yield levels.   And though the total supply of western




softwood timber should be greater in 1985 than it was in 1960, due to




the assertion of the more rapid growth of young, second-growth tree




stands, continued population growth should result in expansion of demand




that requires broadening use of the southern Idaho-eastern Oregon forest




resource.




     Indeed, a case may be made for more rapid demand growth than in the




past.  Given stability in slowly declining use of lumber, the rising.




demand for other wood-based products would result in rapid growth.  Per-




capita use of wood in the U. S. has been almost stable for two decades--




something over 55 cubic feet in 1940,  about 66 cubic feet in 1950




(at the height of the post-war building boom), and 59 cubic .feet in




1960.  But the overall dimensions of use conceal  some radical shifts




in the form of consumption.  Less lumber is used in construction,, but




more plywood is employed; use of wooden boxes and barrels has declined,




while use of paper cartons has skyrocketed.  Table 25 presents,  in the




form of an index, use of raw wood in various forms at five-year




intervals over the last two decades.

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                                                                        58
                                       a/
                             TABLE 25  -'




       INDEX OF WOOD USE IN MANUFACTURING, 1940-1960 (1940=100)

                  DOMESTIC PRODUCTION PLUS NET IMP3RTS
Year
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
j*/ Source:
JV Excludes
Total
100 .
99
134
143
144
Statistical
fuelwood.
Sawlogs
100
93
132
129
122
Abstract

Veneer Logs
100
104
154
276
358
of the U. S.

Pulpwood
100
126
176
216
232


Other.i'
100
• 88
80
72
70


Reduced to average annual growth rates, the index numbers indicate that the




use of wood in various forms is rising at a rate outpacing population growth.




Between 1940 and I960:




      . 'Population grew at a 1.55 per cent average rate;




        Cut and imports of wood for all purposes grew at a 1.8 percent average


          rate;




        Cut.and imports of veneer logs grew at a 5.3 percent average rate;




        Cut and imports of pulp logs grew at a 4.3 percent average rate;

           *



        Cut and imports of sawlogs grew at a 0.8 percent average rate.







     The results have been a persistent rise in the price of stumpage,




increj .sed imports of wood and wood products (from 5.4 percent of the 7.4




billion cubic feet used in 1940 to 12.4 percent of the 10.6 billion cubic




feet of 1960), fuller utilization of the tree, greater attention to ration-



alized forestry practices, use of trees of lower quality—and growing-use  .

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                                                                59




of what were, in 1940, secondary forest tracts, notably in the




southeastern states, but including the Central Snake Basin.   If the




present trends in timber harvest and wood products manufacturing are




assumed to maintain their force, a projection outlining the course  of




the industry's development may be outlined.




     (1)  The annual cut will increase at a rate somewhat over that of




population growth until the sustained yield level is reached.   If it is




assumed that cut will continue to increase, at a rate about a third




faster than population, and that this rate will apply in the study




area, the optimum cut of 520 million board feet, would be achieved




before 1985  (using  the 275 million board feet of 1956 as a base,  and




applying a 2.5 percent rate.)




     (2)  Utilization will be more intense—and more, varied.  A growing




portion of waste wood will be chipped and used in production of pulp




and board.  Attaining this end will require more heavily capitalized




mills, with larger productive capacity to justify added processing




costs.  Plywood production, too, should increase materially—the




rising cost of the raw material makes it almost mandatory to make the




highest grade of product to which each tree is suited.  Such results




may be achieved1 in two ways:  development of forest products complexes




with lumber, plywood, millwork, and chipping under one roof; alternatively,




development of log grading and warehousing by wholesalers, who may sell




logs to users seeking the grades and sizes suitable to their own




operations.




     Production of hardboard, pressboard, or similar products seems




likely.  The area develops enough chippable residues to supply several




such plants; utilization of these compositions is rising, and is

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                                                                   60
consistent v/ith the tendency to use wood more intensively.  Capital

requirements for establishing production are relatively modest..  The

Baker, Oregon, area seems a likely site for such a plant.  Other

possible locations exist along the Boise, Payette, and Weiser Rivers.

     (3)  Production of wood pulp or paper in the area does not seem

probable.—'.  The average size of the economic pulp mill today seems to

begin at 400 tons per day capacity, with most mills installed along the

Pacific slopes rapidly expanding toward a capacity of 700 tons per day

or more.   A mill of 700 tons capacity chews up some 435,000 cords of

wood—some 55 million cubic feet--a year.  The sustained yield cut of
                                                      v
the area has been estimated at about 90 million cubic feet, and the

principal forest products  firm of the area presently uses a substantial.

portion of the area's chippable residues at an. established plant-outside

the basin.  With a large part of potential pulpwood production already

tied up, and less than twice the total wood supply needed to support

a substantial pulp mill, it would seem unlikely that one would be

established in the area.  -Too, the risk of locating a mill in an area

without the resources to support expansion has been enhanced by the

extended reach of established mills for a wood supply.  Chips are now

shipped from Emmett to Wallula, more than 200 miles; from Boise to
                                                        2/
Lewiston, over 250 miles; as well as to the Middle '.jEst.—   With

established plants already reaching into th.-. basin for pulpwood,
_!_/ This judgment conflicts with that of an earlier report upon the
Payette River Basin, which took into consideration only the level of
raw material availability and not the existence of already established
utilization practices.  It also disagrees with a forecast prepared for
the Bonneville Power Administration by the Intermountain Forest and
Range Experiment Station of the USDA, which predicts construction of a.
300-ton-per-day mill in southern Idaho between 1972 and 1980.

_2/  One nortlwestern Washington pulp mill reaches into northern Montana
for pulpwood--has even installed special wood-handling equipment to use  it.

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                                                                      61


on the  face of things, it is unlikely that there are reasonable

places  for a potential Central Snake mill to go for its needs.

      (4)  Employment will rise with production.  This has not been the

case nationally during the last decade, as declining use of lumber and

rising  labor productivity—particularly in sawmills, where the demise

of the  small mill and increasing inputs of capital in the forms of.

materials-handling machinery and energy have lowered manpower needs.

It does, however, seem a likely course of events in the Central Snake

area for a number of reasons.

           (a)  In contrast to other timber-producing areas, the

lumber resource is under-exploited, and an increase in the level of

production will be required simply to bring logging to the sustained

yield level.

           (b)  Southern Idaho forest production has evolved slowly, with

much of its development occurring over the last decade.   Relatively

efficient, it does not have the potential manpower savings that are

available to areas with a longer history of extensive forestry.

           (c)  Increasing difficulty in harvesting timber will be

encountered as the less favorable stands are logged, with a consequent

addition to labor requirements.

           (d)  A constantly increasing utilization and up-grading of

wood by related manufacturing industries may be anticipated as the area

comes to occupy a larger segment of the total forest products output..

U. S. Forest Service Bulletin PNW-3, Toward Complete Use of Eastern

Oregon's Forest Resources—   contains some rough guides to the employ-

ment potential involved in imposing additional manufacturing on wood,

I/  Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, U. S. Dept. of
Agriculture,  May 1963.

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                                                                   62






with  the employment gain running from about two and a half times




when  logging advances to sawmilling to almost six times when the log




is used to manufacture pulp, plywood, or hardboard.




      The dimensions of the gain to be anticipated in employment is




suggested by the U. S. Forest Service which has produced a projection




for all of southern Idaho that assumes sustained yield production by




1980, and an 80 percent gain in employment.  If this projection is




adjusted to eliminate 500 workers forecast to be employed in a pulp




mill, a rate of employment .increase similar to that projected for the




dimensions of the  total cut, about 2.5 percent per year, is obtained.




The projection, then, strikes a balance between increased cut, increased




productivity (also about 2.5 percent per year, based on the recent past)^




and increased intensity of utilization, by tacitly assuming that they




are approximately  equal in effect, with productivity cancelling out




either increased cut or additional utilization.  This seems a legitimate




assumption, and the projection, adopted for this report, designs employ-




.ment  of 3,500 in forest products industries by 1985.

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                                                                   63
      D.  Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction
      Miscellaneous  manufacturing--!.e.,  all manufacturing other




 than food  processing  and  production  of  lumber and  other  forest




.products—has,  in the Central  Snake  Basin  in recent years, grown




 at a rate  in excess of other significant sources of employment




 opportunities.   Growth, however, has been  closely  related to that




 of primary industries,  agriculture,  food processing,  lumbering.




 In effect,  growth of  output and activity in primary industries has




 created markets  for the products of  related industries.  To the ex-




 tent that  growth of the primary industries has  resulted  in increased




 employment  and  population, broader markets for  other  products, con-




 sumers' goods for the most part, have also been- created.




      Viewed in this light, development  of  miscellaneous manufacturing




 is .a function of growth in primary industries,  which  create a market




 atmosphere  conducive  to entrepeneurship.  A projection of employment




 may then be made in terms of the dimensions of  employment in primary




 industries.




      (There are, of course, serious  disadvantages  to  such a projec-




 tion.  VJhile the hazy assumption is  made that,  for the most part,




 production will involve products to  be  utilized by consumers and by




 primary industries, it is entirely possible that wholly  unrelated




 types of products will appear. This is, in the terms of this  study,




 immaterial--except  in the case of the  industry  which  requires  unusual




 water supplies or produces  large amounts,  or serious  concentrations,




 of waterborne wastes.  Unfortunately,  there  is  no  means  of predicting




 the appearance of such an industry.  Forecasting techniques have not




 reached a  level which entitles the  projection  to  pose as prophecy.)

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                                                                   64
     Since the level of employment in miscellaneous manufacturing

is to be viewed in the light of that of the primary industries,
                                                /

no examination of relative growth rates of the varied industries

has been attempted.  For the purpose of creating a design economy

for 1985, it is assumed that the experience of the quarter century

1960-1985 will approximate that of the last decade, with one  job

created in all other types of manufacturing for each two additional

sources of employment in food processing and lumbering.   This would

result in a work force of about 6.5 thousand in 1985.

     Construction, too, must- be viewed as an element of  continuing

vigor in the regional economy.  Most projections of national  eco-

nomic activity agree in forecasting rising levels  of construction,

based on a growing population's needs for housing, the broader pro-

duction base required by an .expanding economy, and an existing gap

                                                               a/
between social welfare demands and institutional capabilities. —

The Central Snake Basin would seem to be an area capable of sup-

porting a particularly high level of construction  employment.  It
sj One might suggest, too, that forecasters who face the conflicting
   circumstances of rapidly rising labor productivity and the postu-
   lates of the Employment Opportunity Act of 1946 are tempted to
   clutch at increased construction employment as a way out of the
   impasse posed by rising population.  Development of improved
   materials and techniques over the course of the last ten years
   has, however, caused a rise in productivity of construction
   labor equivalent to that of manufacturing.  Since the industry
   had previously been notoriously retrograde, there is wide lati-
   tude for improvement.  It is not improbable that the improvement
   of labor productivity in construction over the next ten years
   will rival that of agriculture during the last decade.  Thus the
   industry seems a tenuous sort of refuge for the beset forecaster.

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                                                                 65




is relatively undeveloped.  Belated industrialization and opportuni-




ties for development of a number of natural resource projects suggest




levels of construction somewhat higher than those of industrially




matured areas.




     It should be. noted, too, that the staff and depot functions of




the Morrison-Knudson Company give the community of Boise an oppor-^




tunity to share in the overall development of construction, in a




manner analogous to that in which the economic fortunes of a city




v;hich is the site of a major manufacturing plant reflect the experi-




ences of the particular manufacturing industry.




     In view of these factors, it does not seem unreasonable to fore-




cast maintenance of the relative weight, of construction employment




over the period 1960-1985 at the same, rather high, 8 percent of the




labor force it has occupied for several decades.  Adherence to this




pattern would result in the employment of some 11 thousand at con-




struction in 1985.




     E.  Trade and Services




     Although service employment in the Central Snake Basin rose'




comparatively less rapidly than in the Nation as a whole during the




last decade (cf Table 6), there is little reason to anticipate that




a lag of this sort will be permanent.  The combination of rural social




patterns, sub-average personal income, and low population density




that inhibited the development of service industries may be expected




to loosen under the pressures of industrialization and urbanization--




forces evident in the region at this  time-.

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                                                                   66

     While the growth of trade and service employment may be antici-

pated to be most marked in the City of Boise,  and in the Nampa-

Caldwell, Payette-Ontario industrial centers,  these areas may be

expected to contain an increasing proportion of the total popula-

tion of the study area—with the result that occupation and income

patterns should, in the future, tend to bear a more faithful corre-

spondence to national configurations.

     Because the employment-generating effects of trade and service

industries tend to be minor, no effort is made to examine growth

trends of specific types of services.—'   Instead, the projection of

service employment is presented in terms of the long-term experience

of this segment of the economy.  For the Nation'as a whole, the por-

tion of the labor force engaged at service occupations has increased

by an increment of about 0;3 percent per year in this century--

though this rate was exceeded considerably in the course of the last

decade.  Roughly .the same proportion of increase in service occupa-

tions occurred in the Central Snake Basin over the last two decades.

Again, the increase was more rapid in the nineteen-fifties than in

the  'forties.

     For the purpose of drawing an economic design of the area for

the period 1960-1985, it is assumed that the portion of the labor

force engaged in trade and services will continue to increase at an

incremental 0.3 percent per year.  Maintenance of this level of in-

crease would result in employment of roughly 64 percent of the total

labor force—about 87 thousand persons — in trade and service occupa-

tions in 1985.
a/ Manpower Report of the President (March 1963), previously alluded
   to, presents such an analysis for the Nation as a whole for the
   period 1960-1975.

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                                                                  67






     F.  Mining -Fore s t ry-Unemp loyraent




     The level of employment in mining is based on an imponderable,




the presence or absence of utilizable mineral deposits.   Half a




century ago, a major portion of the area's population was supported,




directly or indirectly, by mining.  By I960,  only one-tenth of one




percent of the total labor force was engaged  in mineral  extraction.




In order to create an economic design, it is  assumed--eritirely




arbitrarily—that the same number of persons, about 200,  will be




engaged in mining in 1985 as were in 1960.




     Forestry should continue to display vigorous growth.  During




the nineteen-fifties the number employed in. forestry almost doubled--




an annual growth rate of nearly 7 percent. The needs of conservation,




outdoor recreation, higher output of forest products, all indicate




continually expanding requirements for foresters.  While a 7 percent




annual growth rate would seem excessive, the  obvious need for, and




trend.toward, scientific forest management suggests growth of employ-




ment opportunities at a rate well above the rate of growth of popula-




tion.  For design purposes, it is assumed that a rate of growth double




that of national population growth will apply over the period, or about




3.8 percent, and that .some 1.2 thousand will  be employed at forestry




by 1985.




     Full employment, required under the 1946 law, has generally been




interpreted to mean maintaining a rate of unemployment not exceeding




4 percent of the labor force.  Accordingly, 4 percent of the labor




force, 5.5 thousand, are assumed to be unemployed in 1985.

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                                                                   68





           IV.  FUTURE LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION






      A.  1960-1985




      The design pattern of the 1985 economy drawn in the preceding




 sections, and summarized in terms  of the  labor  force  in contrast with




 I960,  in Table 26  permits  a calculation  of  1985  population dimensions,




 If it  is assumed that  the  labor force/population ratio continues  to




 stand  at about 38  percent,  then a  civilian  population  of some 360,000




 is indicated,  to which is  added a military-derived population of




 roughly 10,000 in  the Mountain-Home area.  An annual growth rate of




 1.6  percent  per  year,  approximately that of the  last decade, but




 somewhat under that forecast for the.United States as  a whole, is



 indicated.





                               TABLE 26




SUMMARY OF 1960 AND ILLUSTRATIVE 1985 LABOR  FORCE AND POPULATION

Agriculture
Forestry, fisheries, mining
Construction
Manu f actur ing
Forest Products
Food Processing
All other
Trades and Services
Unemployed
TOTAL LABOR FORCE
POPULATION
1960
17.5
.7
7.4
11.3
2.5
5.2
3.6
53.6
5.1
95.8
252.0
1985
12.0
1.5.
11.0
19.0
3.5
9.0
6.5
87.0
5.5
136.0
370.0

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     B.  1985-2010.




     Although an attempt to project population through 2010 by the




same means--production, employment, labor-force/population ratio--




employed to create the population design for 1985 is entirely




feasible, the effort seems more than a little specious.  The




changes in productivity that are possible in half a century, under




conditions of expanding technological competence and intensive re-




search efforts, make any attempt to approximate the details of con-




ditions in 2010 seem potentially fruitless.  (Consider, for example,




the task of a forecaster of 1910 essaying a similar projection of




I960--without any conception of even the techniques of mass pro-




duction and consumer financing, much less the sheer- mass of  prod-




ucts that changed the conditions of life in the next five decades.)




     A more general approach will be employed.  The U. S. Census




Bureau has projected national population to 2010.  It would seem




more fruitful to apportion a part of the forecast population in-




crease to the study area than to attempt a more elaborate rationale,




since planning based on such long-term considerations must, of




necessity, be broad rather than detailed.




     Accordingly, the population projection submitted for 2010 is




based on the following assumptions:'                       .  '




     (1)  National population will grow at a rate of roughly two




percent per year from 1985 through 2010  (U. S. Department of Com-




merce, Bureau of the Census, P-25, Series II.)

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                                                                70





     (2)  Population growth in the Central Snake Basin will continue




to grow at a rate somewhat under that predicted for the Nation as  a




whole, for several reasons:




          (a)  The principal industries of the area, agriculture




and lumbering, indicate a lesser ability to support increased direct




and indirect employment than do production industries as a whole.




          (b)  There is a demonstrated national tendency for popula-




tion growth to be concentrated in metropolitan centers.




          (c)  Most parts of the study area have established a pattern




of out-migration, in keeping with their basically rural nature.




          (d)  As the force of rural social patterns is loosened by




the progress of urbanization, the birth rate—consistently one of  the




Nation's highest—should demonstrate a tendency to. align more closely




with national trends.




          (e)  With population expansion, the ability of development




programs to foster growth of the area (e.g., reclamation programs,




establishment of military bases) will grow proportionately less




effective.




          Accordingly, population growth is projected for design




purposes to occur at 90 percent of the national rate — the relation-




ship established by the 1960-1985 forecast—or at an average annual




rate of 1.8 percent.  Growth occurring at such a rate would indicate




a population on  the order of 585,000 persons in 2010.

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                                                                       71
     C.  Population Distribution




     An hypothetical distribution of population among subareas--municipal-




ities, counties, river basins—projected to 1985 and 2010 is  presented in




Table 27.   Assignment of population to specific areas is largely mathematical,




though existence of unusual expansion prospects has  been recognized in pro-




jecting population to 1985.  It should be emphasized once more that these




projections represent mathematical conventions'based on a Census Bureau




forecast of national population.—
\J  See  appendix for method applied in distributing population among subareas,

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                                                                        72
                                        TABLE 27
                           POPULATION DESIGN:  1960,  1985,  2010
Area

Boise Urbanized Area
Meridian
Kuna
Ada County Rural
Nampa-Caldwell
Parma
Wilder
Middleton
Notus
Canyon County Rural
Mt. Home Urbanized Area
Glens Ferry
Elmore County Rural
TOTAL: Boise River B.
Payette
Erranett
McCall
New Plymouth
Cascade
Fruitland
Horseshoe Bend
Rural
TOTAL: Payette River B.
Homedale
Mar sing
Owyhee County Rural
TOTAL: Owyhee County
Nyssa
. Ontario
Vale
Malheur County Rural
TOTAL: Malheur County
Population. f/£$C-$n
1960 £/
74.0
2.1
.5
16.9
30.2
1.3
.6
.5
.3
24.7 ,
12. 'Cr-
1.4
3.3
167.8
4.5
3.8
1.4
.9
.9
.8
.5
14.0
26.8
1.4
.6
4.4
6.4 '
2.6
5.1
1.5
13.6
22.8
1985-B-'
144.0
3.6
.6
16.9
50.8
1.8
.7
.8
.4
24.7
17.0
1.9
4.0
267.2:-
8.6
7.2
2.0
1.3
1.3
1.2
.7.
14.7
37.6
3.0
1.0
4.4
8.4 '
3.5
7.3
2.0
. 10.6
23.4'
2010 £/
280.0
5.4
.8
16.9
85.4
2.7
.8
. 1.3
.5
24.7
26.5
2.8
4.0
451.8
13.0
10.9
3.0
1.6
1.6
1.5
.8
14.7
47.1
4.5
. 1.3
4.4
10.2'
5.3
11.4
3.0
10.6
30.3"

"a/  Rural population growth for the period '1950-1960 assumed to have occurred
 entirely in the Mountain Home area.

b_/ Columns may not add, due to rounding.

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TABLE  27 (continued)
                                 73
Area

Baker
Halfway
Huntington
Baker County Rural
TOTAL: Baker County
Weiser
Council
New Meadows
Cambridge
Rural
TOTAL: Weiser River B.
TOTAL: CENTRAL SNAKE B.

i960
10.0
.5
.7
6.1
17.3
4.2
.8
.6
.5
5.2
11.6
252.4
Population
1985
14.6
.6
.8
6.6
22.6
6.1
1.0
.7
.6
4.2
12.6
370.

2010
22.8
.8
1.0
6.6
31.2
9.5
1.3
.9
.8
4.2
16.7
585.0

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                                                                          74



                                APPENDIX






      Projection of population among subareas rests on twin assumptions--




 that employment and urbanization trends in existence during the last two




 census periods will persist, and that the labor force to population ratio




 will stand at a uniform .38 in subareas.   Principal elements of the compu-




 tations are presented in Table A.




 !•   The basic element in preparing these projections was the allocation




 of "goods industries' employment.  V7itti some modifications, it was assumed that




 that the distribution of employment in 1985 would be..similar to that of 1960.




 This seemed likely in view of the fact that the production and distribution




 factors determining employment must—unless some entirely new source of




 basic materials is discovered--depend on'development of existing circum-




 stances.  Modifications were these:




      (a)  Agriculture;  to give force to the substantial irrigation




 opportunities present and  tc the critical importance of agriculture in




 those counties, agricultural employment was allotted in Elmore, Malheur,




 and Owyhee counties on the basis of one man per 700 arable acres:  that




 being an extension of the trend observable in similar mixed farming areas




 of the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascade Range.  (cf.:  Economic Base




 Study & Forecastj Umatilla River Basin.)   Remaining agricultural employ-





 ment was allotted to other areas on the basis of the 1960 distribution.




      (b)  Food Processing;  Ten percent of the total increase projected for




 food processing employment was arbitrarily assigned to Elmore and Owyhee




- Counties to reflect materially increased agricultural outputs anticipated




 from extension of irrigation.

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                                                                   75




     Exceptions to this pattern were restricted to the period 1.960-1985,




and are based on unusual circumstances suggested by the development




pattern forecast for goods industries employment.  They include:




     (1)  Rural populations of Malheur, Elmore, and Owyhee counties




were allotted on the basis of agricultural employment.  In the case of




Owyhee County, this resulted in a substantial incremental population,




which was assigned to Homedale, the principal settled place.




     (2)  Because of the higher average rate of growth in goods




industries employment forecast in the Payette River Basin, the higher




growth rates appropriate for communities of a larger size were used to




allot 1985 populations.  Thus Payette and Emmett were assumed to grow




at the same rate as Nampa-Caldwell; McCall was assumed to grow at the




rate of cities of 2,500 to 10,000; smaller settled places were assigned




the same growth rates as towns of 1,000 - 2,499.




     (3)  In the cases of the Payette River Basin and Baker County, where




lumbering is largely concentrated, a residual population increment found




to exist after application of appropriate 1960 - 1985 growth rates to




communities was assigned to rural residents.  This does not seem unreasonable,




in view of the nature of residence of persons working at logging or in




sawmills.




     (4)  In the. case of the Weiser River Basin, application of the chosen




growth rates to communities resulted in a loss in rural population.  Since




a decline of about  .5 thousand in agricultural employment was projected




for the area, the decline in rural population seems reasonable.

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                                                           DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOTMETC AMONG SUBAREAS,  1985

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
'6.
7.
8.

Sub -Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elmore County
Owyhee County
Payette R. Basin
Weiser R. Basin
Malheur County
Baker County
TOTAL-'*

Agri-
culture
1.5
3.6
•7.
1.2
1.5
.8
2.2
.8
12.0
Goods
Lumber-
ing
.6
.2
.1
-
1.6
.4
-
.6
3.5
Industries ;
Food
Process-
ing
1.5
3.6
.2
.3
1.4
.5
1.3
.2
9.0
: Employment in Thousands
Other
Mfg.
3.6
1.6
.1
.1
.2
.2
.2
.5
6.5
Con-
struc-
tion
5.5
1.7
.3
.2
1.1
.3
.7
1.2
11.0
Forestry"
and
Mining
.4
.1
.1
-
.4
.1
.1
.3
1.5
TOTAL
13.1
10.8
1.5
1.8
6.2
2.3
4.5
3.6
43.8
Service Industries:
Approx.
1960 Svce
Ratio
707=
55
35
35
45
45
45
50

^'Goods-
Derived1'1
35.2
14.6
2,8
1.0
5.4
2.1
4.0
3.9
69.0
Employ.
r'Growth-
Derived"
10.8
3.2.
.9
.3
1.8
.2
-
.8
18.0
in 1,000k
Total
Svces
46.0
17.8
3.7
1.3
7.2
2.3
4.0
4.7
87.0
Total
Employment
59.1
28.6
5,2
3,1
13,4
4 . 6
8.5
8.3
\130.5
Labor
Force
61.6
29.8
8.7S/
3.2-
14.1
4.8
8.9
8.6
136.0
Population
165.0
79.2
22,9
8.4
37.0
12.6
•23.4
22.6
370.0
a_/ Includes 3.3 in armed  forces.




J?/ Columns may not add due  to rounding.

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                                                                     77






II.  .Service industry employment was derived—in two steps — from




employment in goods industries:




     (a)  A basic labor force was computed by assuming for each subarea




a service ratio similar to that of 1960 (i.e., same, to the nearest




5 percent).  In this fashion, some 69 thousand service positions were




allotted, 18 'thousand less than the projection for the entire region.




     (b)  On the assumption that growth of service industries would be




most pronounced in areas of more rapid population growth, remaining




service employment was distributed according to the percentage of the




total increase in goods industries and allotted service industries




employment occurring in each area.






III.  Total employment for each subarea was assumed to include 96 percent




of its labor force, and the labor force was assumed to include 38 .percent




of population, permitting a calculation of total population for eight




major subareas.






IV.  Further distribution of population rests on the assumption that




growth would continue to occur at established rates.  This procedure resulted




in close correlation between the combined populations of subareas and the




projected population totals for 1985 and 2010.!/  With several exceptions,




the  allotment of population followed this pattern:
I/  In  the case of 2010 population projections, the combination of  subarea




population  forecasts was  less than  1.3 percent apart from the total popula-




tion forecast obtained by applying  a  total area growth rate derived from




the Census  Bureau's national growth rate  forecast.

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                                                                   78
     (a)  Rural populations were considered to be constant.




     (b)  The Boise urbanized area, Nampa-Caldwell,  cities of 2,500




to 10,000, and cities of 1,000 to 2,499 were assumed to grow at the same




rates as each size category did during the period 1940-1960.




     (c)  Cities of. less than 1,000 were assumed to  grow at the lower




rate established in the period 1950-1960.

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