WORKING PAPER NO. 50
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
November 1964
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland, Oregon 97205
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FOR REVIEW ONLY
WORKING PAPER NO.- 50
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
DATE; November 1964 DISTRIBUTION;
Prepared by RLC Project Staff
Reviev/ed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General >__
U. Se DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. PRESENT POPULATION 1
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 6.
A. General 6.
B. Agriculture ;... .15.
C. Food Processing „ 20
D. Forest Products 25x
E. Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction 32
F. Trade and Services 35
G. Minerals and Mining £1
III. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
A. Agriculture ................................... .... -44
Bo Food Processing ................ „ ...... ...... ..... ,, 49
C. Forest Products .......................... .. ........ 57
D. Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction ....... 63
E. Trade and. Services ................................ 65
F. Mining - Forestry - Unemployment .................. 67
IV. FUTURE LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION ............ . ...... . . '68
A. 1960 - 1985 ........ ............................... 68
B. 1985 - 2010 ............. ..... .................... . 69
C. Population Distribution ........................... 71
APPENDIX ...... ...... . ......................... . . ... 74
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I. PRESENT POPULATION
The twelve counties of the Middle Snake Basin had in 1960 a
population of just over a quarter of a million persons.
Population density is low throughout most of the basin, Ada
and Canyon Counties contain sixty percent of the area's inhabitants,
most of them concentrated in or near the three principal cities of
the region: Boise, Nampa, and Caldwell. A secondary focus of popu-
lation is provided by the line of food-processing towns: Payette,
Ontario, Nyssa. Between these foci, a substantial part of the re-
maining .populace of the region subsists in a series of smaller com-
munities separated by farms. The population outside of this center,
which has formed in the lower reaches of the .Boise, Payette, Owyhee,
and Malheur Rivers, is widely dispersed through the semi-arid regions
which enclose it on three sides, and.the mountainous, forested
northern portion of the basin.
Population growth for several decades has occurred at a rate
exceeding that of the State of Idaho. In the last two decades, growth
has been fairly even. An annual rate of population increase of 1.8
percent in the 1940-1950 decade slowed only moderately to 1.6 percent
during the 1950's. Table 1 lists populations of the principal divi-
sions of the basin at each of the last three national census periods.
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TABLE 1
COUNTY .POPULATION: 1940-1960 £
Area
Ada County
Boise
Associated Areas
Boise Urbanized Area
Kuna
Meridian
Rural
Canyon County
Caldwell
Middleton
Nampa
Notus
Parma
Wilder
Rural
Elmore County
Glenns Ferry
Mountain Home
Rural
TOTAL: BOISE RIVER BASIN
Boise County
Horseshoe Bend
Rural
Gem County
Emmet t
Rural
Payette County
Fruitland
. New Plymouth
Payette
Rural
Valley County
Cascade
McCall
Stibnite
Rural
TOTAL: PAYETTE RIVER BASIN
1940
50,401
(26,130)
( 2,100 E)
28,230 E
443
1,465
20,263 E
40,987
7,272
477
12,149
277
1,085
507
19,220
5,518
1,290
1,193
3,035
96,906
2,333
N.A.
2,333
9,544
3,203
6,341
9,511
-
804
3,32"2
5,385
4,035
1,029
875
-•
2,131
25,423
Population
1950
70,649
(34,393)
(15,724 E)
50,117 E
534
1,810
18,188 E
53,597
10,487
.496
16,185
313
1,369
555
24,192
6,687
1,515
1,887
3,285
130,933
1,776
401
1,375
8,730
3,067
5,663
11,921
573
942
4,032
6,374
4,270
943
1,173
717
1,437
26,697
1960
Population
1960 Sq. Mi.
93,460 89.7
(34,481)
(39,486)
73,967 5.'
516
2,081
16,896
57,662 99.4
12,230
541
18,013
324
1,295
' 603
.24,656
16,719 5.5
1,374
5,984
9,361
167,841
1,646 0.9
480
1,166
9,, 127 16.4
3,769
5,358
12,363 30.7
804
940
4,451
6,168
3,663 1.0
923
1,423
-
1,317
26,799
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
1960
Population Population
Area
Adams County
Council
New Meadows
Rural
Washington County
Cambridge
Weiser
Rural
TOTAL: WEISER RIVER BASIN
Owyhee County
•Homed ale
Mar sing
Rural
Baker County
Baker
Halfway
Huntington
Haines
Rural
Malheur County
Nyssa
Ontario
Vale
Rural
TOTAL: CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN
1940
3,407
692
264
, 2,451
8,853
405
3,663
4,785
12,260
5,652
857
-
4,795
18,297
9,342
416
741
377
7,421
19,767
1,855
3,551
1,083
13,278
178^305
1950
3,347
748
621
1,978
8,576
354
3,961
4,261
11,923
6,307 ,
1,411
. 643
4,253
16,175
9,471
312'
733
321
5,338
23,223
2,525
4,465
1,518
14^715
211,258
1960 Sq. Mi.
2,978 2.2
827
647
1,504
8,378 5.7
473
4,208
3,697
11,356
6,375 0.8
1,381
555
4,439
17,295 5.6
• 9,986
505
689
331
5,784
22,764 2.3
2,611
5,101
1,491
13,561
252_,430 7.3
a/ U. S. Census of Population 1950, I960.
b/ Estimates of the Boise Urban Area rest on examination of census tract
maps and include only contiguous built-up areas. The Ada County
Planning Commission includes 76,137 in its definition of the urban
area for 1960, plus 5,040 persons as nixed, rural non-farm and farm
population, and 1,388 in rural areas to obtain a population of
82,565 for its definition of the Boise Metropolitan Area.
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The table indicates that population growth has not been even.
Five of the twelve counties contained less people in 1960 than in
1940; six counties had lower populations in 1960 than in 1950.
Indeed^nine counties experienced net migration during the 1950's;
only Ada, Payette, and Elmore Counties saw populations grow at a
rate above the natural rate of increase.
Population increase has been restricted to urban areas. Rural
populations, in spite of intensive fanning and scattered additions
to irrigation, have declined. Growth of communities has, in gen-
eral, correlated rather closely with their size, a fact suggested
by the data in Table 2, which lists population growth rates by size
of place for the last two decades.
TABLE 2
ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE, URBAN .AND RURAL POPULATIONS, 1940-1960 -/
Place
Boise Urban Area
Nampa-Caldwell
7 Cities, 2,500-10,000
7 Cities, 1,000-2,499
14 Towns, 250-999
•
Total Rural
Basin Total
State of Idaho
1940-1950
5.9%
3.6
1.0
2.4
3.4
-0.1
1.8
1.1
1950-1960
2.6%
1.2
2.1
0.2
0.8
0.3
1.6
1.2
1940-1960
4.8%
2.2
. 1.5
1.3
2.1
0.1
1.7
1.1
a/ Towns are classified according to 1960 census population, with the
exception of Cascade (Valley County), which had over 1,000 inhab-
itants in 1940 but dropped below that level in the succeeding decade,
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5
The moderate rural growth indicated during the period 1950-1960
is deceptive. Growing rural populations were recorded for Elmore
County and Canyon County, where areas adjacent to the communities of
Mountain Home in the one case, and Nampa and Caldwell in the other,
experienced substantial growth which was rural only in that it
occurred outside of the statutory city limits. If "urbanized areas"
could be logically defined for these places, a somewhat higher growth
rate for Nampa-Caldwell, a considerably higher growth rate for cities
of 2,500-10,000, and a decline for rural populations would be
demonstrated in Table 2.
The end result of the disparity between population trends for
urban and rural areas has been a change in the character of the region.
In 1940, .almost 55 percent of the Middle Snake Basin's population .was
living in rural areas and communities of less than 1,000. By 1960
that portion of the population represented less than 40 percent of
the total, and v:as exceeded in numbers by those living in and near
cities over 10,000. Thus, in two decades the study area was trans-
formed from a rural society to one with a moderate urban predominance,
as indicated by Table 3.
TABLE 3
URBAN & RURAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 1940-1960 £/
Percent of Basin Population
1940 1950 1960
Boise Urban Area 15.8 23.2 29.4
Nampa-Caldwell 10.9 12.4 12.0
7 Cities, 2,500-10,000 . '14.7 13.7 14.3
7 Cities, 1,000-2,499 4.3 4.6 4.0
14 towns, 250-999 2.9 3.8 3.0
Total Rural 51.4 42.3 37.3
a/ Not adjusted to reflect urbanized rural populations except in the
Boise Urban Area.
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II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
A. General
The .economic life of the Middle Snake Basin is tied closely to
farming. Lumbering, construction, and some services are developed at
levels which provide strong support to the agriculture-based economy;
but almost a fourth of total employment in 1960 was found either on
farms or in food-processing industries developed to utilize farm
products. Table 4, which lists employment in 1960 by industrial
classification, and contrasts its distribution with that of the U. S.
as a whole, points clearly to the pre-eminent position of agriculture
in the area.
Economic development of the region during the nineteen-fifties
was concentrated largely in lines of activity in which the region's
position was already clearly established: agriculture, lumbering,
and food processing. Miscellaneous manufacturing activities demon-
strated noteworthy percentage growth in employment; but only in the
transportation equipment classification, where trailer construction
became a vigorous industry, did significant numbers become employed.
Table 5 contrasts 1950 and 1960 employment in industrial classifications
to provide some estimate of the nature of recent shifts in the regional
economy.
• The table indicates that employment in twelve industries rose at
a perceptibly more rapid pace than either total employment or the labor
force: forestry, metals, and metalworking, transportation equipment,
food processing, printing and publishing, miscellaneous durable and
non-durable goods manufacturing, wholesale trade, personal services,
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TABLE 4
INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE
MIDDLE SNAKE BASIN AND U. S., 1960 I/
Number Employed % of Labor Force
Indus try Middle Snake Middle Snake U.S.
Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Furniture, lumber, wood pdts.
Primary and falctd. metals
Machinery & tsptn. eqpt.
Other durables
Food & kindred
Printing & publishing
Other non- durables
Railroads & Rwy. Express
Other transportation & warehousing
Communications & utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . '
Financial, business & repair svcs.
Personal services
Education
Medical & other professional SVCSK
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
-17,537 •
' 501 '
191
7,436
11,344-
"2,492
367
1,120
801 • ..
5,190
986
388
1,527
2,065
3,018
3,666
14,618
5,652
6,336
4,669
5,272
4,908
1,903
5,101
18.3
' .5
.1
7.8
. 11.8-
2.6
.4
1.2
.8
5.4
1.0
.4
1.0
2.2
3.1
3.8
15.1
5.9
6.6
4.9
. 5.5
5.1
2.0
5.3
6.6
.1
1.0
5.6
27.1
1.6
3.8
7.5
2.1
2.6
1.7
7.0
1.5
2.8
. 2.3
3.4
14.6
6.3
6.4
5.1
6.3
4.9
3.8
5.2
TOTAL LABOR FORCE ' 95,744
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TABLE 5
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION, 1950 and 1960
Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Frtre, Lumber, W.P.
Pry. & fabctd. metal
Mchy & tsptn. eqpt.
Other dbles.
Food & kindred
Printing & publish.
Other non-dbles.
Railroads & Rwy. Xpress
Other tsptn & whsg.
Comctns. & utlts.
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Fncl., bsnss,rpr. svcs
Personal svce
Education
Number
1950
21,841
257
599
6,531
6,068
2,233
262
129
485
1,892
776
291
2,064
1,734
2,773 .
2,843
12,549
4,788
4,734
2,725
"Mdcl. & other pfsnl. svc. 3,727
Public administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
; TOTAL LABOR FORCE
3,712
1,619
4.345
82,909
Employed
1960
17,537
501
191
7,436
11, 3^4
2,492
367
1,120
801
5,190
986
388
1,527
2,065
3,018
3,666
14,618
5,652
6,336
4,669
5,272
4,908
1,903
5,101
95,744
Percent Labor Force
Change
(4,304)
244 '
(408)
905
5f276
^_)9
105
991
316
3,298
. 210
97
(537)
331
245
823-
2,069
864
1,602
1,944
1,545
1,196
284
756-
12,835
i *
1950
26.4
.3
.7
7.9
7.3
2.7
.3
.2
.6
2.3
.9
.3
"1.5
2.1
3.4
3.4
15.1
5.8
5.7
3.3
4.5
4.5
1.9
5.3
1960
18.3
.5
.1
7.8
11.8
2.6
.4
1.2
.8
5.4
1.0
.4
1.6
2.2
..3. 1
3.8
15.1
5.9
. 6.6
4.9
5.5
5.1
2.0
5.3
1960 as
7. 1950
80
194
31
114
186
117
140
869
165
274
127
133
74
119
109
129
117
118
134
172
141
. 132
.117
118
116
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education, professional services, and public administration. In
distinction, employment by agriculture, mining and railroads declined;
and employment by communications and utilities firms rose at a lesser
rate than the labor force.
This creates a somewhat deceptive appearance. Service occupations
expanded generally in the United States during the nineteen-fifties; and
the flowering of service jobs in the Middle Snake Basin may be viewed,
in general, as participation in a national economic trend, rather than
a regional shift in the employment pattern. Similarly, declining
agricultural employment followed a broad-based national current.
In order to isolate distinctly regional employment growth or
decline from changes resulting from participation in broader national
trends, Table 6 lists the net difference between 1960 employment in •
each industrial classification, and the employment that v/ould have
occurred if change between 1950 and 1960 had been exactly proportional
to national experience.
The decline in agricultural employment is seen to be well under
what it would have been had national trends prevailed. Employment in
lumbering and forestry grew in the face of a national decline. All
manufacturing classifications grew in excess of the national experience.
Growth in service employment, though vigorous, was generally less than
might be anticipated from national figures. Railroad employment fell
off at a lesser rate than for the Nation, and was another source of
relative strength to the regional economy.
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TABLE 6
VARIATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL
CATEGORIES FROM RATE OF CHANGE NATIONALLY, 1950-1960
u
e
(U d)
.5-.no
O O XI
a
S M 0 •
W O -H CO
XI 4J
Ct rt cfl •
vO h-1 pfi ^~)
CTv
i— 1
CO
1 P
>> Cy
O Vi •!•) O
i-H O -U 4-1
E aj oi )j
W >— 1 03
^v. 0) O -H
. i-H E f«H CO
4J
C
a> cu s
BOO
>. >J t-l
O O 0)
r*H fr) ft*)
a
E M 0 •
W O -i-l CO
O j 1
O tU nj
Total gain
or (loss)
relative
to U. S.
EMPLOYMENT GAIN OVER
U. S. RATE OF CHANGE
Agriculture
Wood Products
Food Processing
Wholesale Trade
R. R. Transportation
Public Adstn. and
Education
Primary and
fabricated metal
Machinery and
transportation eqpt.
Other double mfg.
1462^
549—
3296
271
212^
482
90
951
235
7548
NET GAIN
4334
MATERIALLY SAME -RATE OF CHANGE AS
U. S.
,
Other Transportation 22
22
EMPLOYMENT LOSS RELATIVE TO
U.S. RATE OF CHANGE
Construction (630)
Communications and
Utilities (287)
Retail Trade (729)
Mining (280)
Finance, business
repair service (1042)
Other services (268)
(3236)
'
£/ Decline, but at a lesser rate than Nation.
b_, Rose, while employment nationally declined.
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11
Thus, in spite of sharing in the national trend to increased
emphasis on services, and despite robust growth of miscellaneous
manufacturing sources of employment during the 1950"s, the Central
Snake Basin remained highly dependant on farming and, to a lesser
degree, on logging, together.with the food-processing plants and
sawmills based on them.
The area is too large to display an homogenous economic
configuration. While agriculture is highly developed through most
of .the Central Snake Basin, lumbering, food processing, other manufactur-
ing, and services tend to be concentrated.
Food processing is most intensively pursued in the lower reaches
of-the Boise and Payette River Basins, Lumbering is concentrated in
the northern part of the basin—Baker County and the upper Payette
and Weiser River Basins. Services are most highly developed in the.
City of Boise. Miscellaneous manufacturing occurs principally about
Boise, extending into the Nampa-Caldwell area, with a secondary con-
centration in the Baker, Oregon area.
Table 7 attempts to indicate the nature of specialization among
subregions. It lists the proportion (percentage) of total 1960 basin
employment in specific industries located in each of eight subareas.
Like any region whose economic viability is tied to natural .
resources, the Middle Snake area displays a strongly seasonal
employment cycle: the exigencies of seed time, harvest, ice or mud
in the forests, impose their own pattern on economic activities.
Table 8 indicates something of the nature of this in the form of an
index of quarterly employment.
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TABLE 7
DISTRIBUTION OF AREA EMPLOYMENT AMONG SUBAREAS, 1960
(PERCENT OF BASIN TOTAL)
Sub-Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elmore County
Owyhee County
a/
Payette R. Basin—
Weiser R. BasinJ?/
Malheur County
Baker County
Agri-
culture
12.
31.
2.
6.
13.
7.
18.
7.
9%
4
9
8
1
3
2
4
Lumber-
ing
18.07,
6.4
2.0
-
48.0
8.3
1.3
16.0 '
Food
Process- Other
ing mf g .
17.3%
42.3
-
2.2
16.5
6.1
13.8
1.8
54.8%
24.8
1.2 •
1.3
3.1
4.1
2.7
8.0
CSTCN
48.8%
13.4
5.8
2.0
9.1
3.2
6.4
11.3
Forestry
& TSPTN
Mining ' CMCTN
Utility
34.6%
4.1
2.6
-
24.8
6.7+
4.1
23.1
43.1%
26.2
6.9
1.4
7.4
3.3
5.5
6.2
Trade
44.3%
22.8
3.4
1.7
8.3
4.2
8.9
6.4
Other
Sources
50.0%
20.0
4.2
1.5
7.2
4.2
7.3
5.6
Pop-
ula-.
tion
37.1%
22.9
6.6
2.5
10.6
4.5.
9.0
6.9
a/ Payette, Gem, Boise and Valley Counties.
b_/ Washington and Adams Counties.
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13
TABLE 8
INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT SEASONA.LITY.1962 &'
(Second Quarter=100)
1st
Agriculture —
Food processing
Lumbering
c/
Construction *•
Other manufacturing
Transportation, comm. , utilities
Trade
Finance
Service & miscellaneous
Governments -
Qtr • .
77
101
93
83
89
94
90
95
92
95
3rd Qtr
105
113
124
103
95
101
101
103
100
123
4th Qtr
98
.112
120
101
85
101
104
103
93
111
e/
Monthly range for three principal industries ~
(second quarter average employment=100)
Agriculture, high: 130 October
low: 75 December
Food processing, high: 125 December
low: 83 July
Lumbering, high: 133 August
low: . 88 : March
3_f Idaho Employment Security Agency, Oregon Dept. of Employment
Jb/ Estimate for State of Idaho as a whole
jc/ Excludes Elmore County
_d/ All employment by Federal, State and local governments
&/ Based on monthly figures for the State of Idaho as a whole
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14
The seasonal employment cycle is relieved by some complementarity
of operations. Food processing and farming have overlapping high labor
requirements during the harvest, particularly in the month of October,
but farming needs drop off thereafter, while processors reach their
peak of activity during December when farm needs are small and
sugar refineries and other food processing plants are at peak operat-
ing levels. Forestry and lumbering attain maximum labor strength
during the summer (including temporary employees utilized for conserva-
tion tasks in national forests — the reason for the high level of third-
quarter government employment) when farm requirements are also high,
and a body of temporary and migrant labor becomes available.
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15
B. Agriculture
Agriculture is the mainstay of the Central Snake Basin's economy.
It employs more persons than any industry other than retail trade; it
supplies the raw materials for the principal manufacturing industries;
and it.has served as the focus of natural resource development.
Irrigation is the motivating force of the basin's farms. Among
the major crops, all sugar b'eets, potatoes, vegetables, berries and
fruits are produced under irrigation. In 1959, 63 percent of the
pasture, 73 percent of the grain crop, 74 percent of the hay crop, and
all of the crop of field seeds were developed on irrigated farms -
though not necessarily with the use of irrigation.-
Giveij. irrigation, the soil is extraordinarily fertile; and, with
a long, warm growing season, many kinds of crop, may be cultivated.
To this natural flexibility, improvements have been added in the
technology and organizational aspects of agriculture-and in the average
degree of capital invested in each farm. The result has been the
evolution of diverse farming patterns to meet the conditions of sub-
areas and the markets opened by expansion of food processing.
The recent course of development has been similar to that of
most western agricultural areas. In the decade between the 1950 and
1959 censuses of agriculture, 18 percent of the total number of farms,
some 2,700, disappeared, mostly through consolidation. In the course
of this evolution, 4,300 farm jobs were obviated --one in five.
Over 53,000 more acres were irrigated at the end of the decade than
at the beginning, an increase of 6 percent. Total land in farms
increased 294,000 acres, one-tenth going into production of crops.
nine-tenths into pasture. Growth of food-processing provided superior
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16
markets for agricultural products, and improved farming methods
increased yields, with the result that the value of products sold
by the basin's farmers advanced roughly $40 million, or by one-third,
in spite of stable prices for farm products. The development of the
area's agriculture during the decade is summarized in Table 9.
In terms of crop patterns, the area has been undergoing a
prolonged transition from a food-grain producing area to one concentrat-
ing on animal products. Skyrocketing wheat yields have facilitated the
transition, by providing higher outputs from shrinking land inputs.
This has allowed a growing portion of the total farm land to go to
production of hay, feed grains (corn acreage, particularly, has in-
creased) and pasture. In addition, the acreage devoted to potatoes,
sugar beets, and fruits and vegetables has increased at varying rates,
depending on market conditions.
Cattle feeding has become an important agricultural function in
the area. In 1962 Idaho ranked fourth among the western states, fifteenth
in the Nation, in number of cattle oi\ feed; and the Central Snake Basin,
together with an area beyond the basin's eastern boundary, is the
center of Idaho cattle feeding industry." The nineteen registered
feed lots in the basin in 1963 were found at Caldwell (9), Nampa (4),
Payette (2), Wilder (2), Weiser, and Emmett.
jY The number of cattle on feed in Idaho at January 1 rose from a
wartime low of under 20,000 in 1940 to 125,000 in 1957, a record
level that has b^.ftn exceeded since 1961 after a sharp decline in
the late 1950's: T. Bell and M. Heinstrotn, Idaho Beef-Growth
and Development of an Industry. U. Idaho, Oct. 1962.
-------
17
TABLE *
AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949-1959^
Land
Number of farms
Land in farms (acres)
Average size of farm (acres)
Land irrigated (acres)
Cropland harvested (acre's)
Pasture (acres)
1949-50
Use Trends
14,802
5,680,335
384
910,618
799,256
4,337,907
1959
12,111
5,974,486
492
963,891
828,943
4,571,231
1959 @\%
1949-50
81.7
105.2
128.3
105.9
103.7
105.4
Acreage Devoted to Principal Crops
Hay
Wheat
Corn
Sugar beets
Barley
Potatoes
Vegetables
Berries, fruits, nuts
Output of
Wheat ifbusbpls^
370,086
109,123
33,791
39,662
68,097
21,795
18,739
14,397
Principal
3,408,637
Corn harvested for grain(bushels) 986,244
Barley (bushels;
Hay (tons)
Sugar beets (tons)
Potatoes (COT)
2,408,228
863,086
869,016
4,772,655
392,842
85,552
72,874
54,722
52,072
20,890
18,730
13,966 .
Crops
3,895,129
2,076,925
2,039,421
954,784
1,374,631
4,924,080
106.1
78.4
215.8
137.8 .
76.5
95.9
100.0
97.0
114.2
210.3
84. 7
110.6
158.3
103.1
Per-Acre Output of Principal Crops
Wheat (bushels)
Corn (bushels)
Barley (bushels)
Hay (tons)
Sugar beets (tons)
Potatoes (CWT)
31.3
29.2
35.4
2.33
21.8
218
45.5
28.5
•39.3 '
2.42
25.1
236
145.3
97.6
111.0
103.9
115.1
108.3
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18
TABLE 9 (Continued)
AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949-1959^
1949-50 1959 1959 @ 7.
1949-50
Animal Populations
Cattle and calves 543,169 689,351 127.0
Milk cows 66,825 76,258 114.1
Sheep 443,097. 290,943 65.6
Swine 67,368 70,369 104.5
Animals Sold
Cattle and calves 232,561 364,598 156.6
Sheep 328,678 305,006 92.8
Swine 95,963 85,831 89.4
Value of Crops Sold
Field crops
Vegetables
Dairy products
Livestock
$36,639,815
4,115,535
15,028,551
39,241,274
$49,223,387
3,865,763
23,706,836
65,948,395
134.2
93.9
157.7
142.6
a/ U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1954, 1959.
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19
Growth of dairy fanning, too, has been rapid, with the Boise
River Basin (Ada and Canyon Counties) and the Payette River Basin
(Payette and Gem Counties) leading the course of development. Though
dairy herds increased only 14 percent in the 1950 - 1959 decade,
value of dairy products sold rose almost 58 percent, due largely to
increased milk production per cow.—
Sugar beets are grown' in ten of the twelve counties of the
Central Snake. Production; however, is concentrated in Canyon and
Malheur Counties sites of the refineries—where 70 to 75 percent of
the total harvest originates. In the case of potatoes, the same two
counties account for 80 percent of production. Acreage devoted to
potatoes has declined, and output has risen only-moderately since 1950,
although processing plants in Caldwell and Ontario were pioneer
installations in the industry. With the development of broad consumer
markets for a variety of processed potato products, the potato processing
center"- and thus the grower's market"~ has shifted eastward to the
better-suited soils of the Upper Snake Basin. In 1962 and 1963, however,
private irrigation projects- developed in Elinore and Owyhee Counties
were planted largely in potatoes.
Vegetables, principally sweet corn, are also produced chiefly
in Canyon and Mdheur Counties, where markets are provided by local
processors. Payette and Gem Counties also contain processing markets,
and provide secondary concentrations of vegetable plantings, as well
as the major part of the area's output of fruits and berries; an output
that is supplemented by the production of contiguous portions of
Canyon and Washington Counties.
I/ Annual milk production per animal rose from 6,320 pounds in 1952
To 8 360 pounds in 1963, an increase of over 32 percent: U. S. Dept.
of Agriculture Statistical Reporting Service, Boise, March 1964.
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20
C. Food Processing
Growth of food processing has provided the major formative
influence in the recent industrial development of the Central Snake
Basin. By modifying and creating markets for farm products, food
processing has acted to speed the pace of .agricultural change. By
absorbing the labor released by improved farm productivity, process-
ing has slowed the pace of out-migration of population. And in
creating, an additional market for inoastrial products, food process-
ing has encouraged development of miscellaneous manufacturing and
construction.
Reflecting the diversity of agricultural output, the food process-
.ing industry of the basin embraces a variety of processes and produces
a wide range of products. Table 10, which lists the agricultural
processing plants of the region, includes 87 units. Most of the.se
are of only moderate size, but some are plants of substantial proportions,
whose products supply a not inconsiderable portion of the total national
market.
At Nampa, the center of the area's processing activities, the
Amalgamated Sugar Co. refinery, the General Foods frozen vegetable
plant, and the Albertson's Poultry Processing Plant are installa-
tions of significant size and of sizeable output. The J. R. Siinplot
plant at Caldwell, whose operations' include canning, freezing, and
dehydrating of potatoes and other vegetables is another substantial
plant. Ore-Ida Foods of Ontario, Idaho Canning Co. of Nyssa, the
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21
TABLE
AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS
Location
Firm
Product or Process
Eagle
Boise
Meridian
Nampa
Boise River Basin
Boise Valley Packing Co.
Liberty Meat Packers
Mountaineer Meet Co.
Eagle Flour Milling Co.
Alpine Pac
Custom Meat Packing Co.
Davis Packing Co.
G. L. Morrison
Swift & Co.
Van's Packing Plant
Boise Poultry Co.
Idaho Poultry Co., Inc.
VJalsh Poultry Co.
Creameries, Inc.
Triangle Dairy
Home Dairies, Inc.
Young's Dairy Products
Albertson's Ice Cream Co.
Sun Ray Drive-in Dairy
J. R. Simplot Co.
Idaho Food Products, Inc.
Meridian Meat Packers
Ada County Daymen's Assoc.'
Wyeth Laboratories, Inc.
Creamline Dairy
Tiffany Meat Packers
Nampa Packing Co.
Ben Anktell Slaughter House
Grimes Custom Slaughtering
Hillcrest Packing Co.
H. H. Keim Co., Ltd.
King Packing Co.
Albertson's Poultry
Processing Plant
Dewey Walls Poultry Farm
Greenleaf Creamery Co.
Home Dairies, Inc.
Meat packing
Blended and prepared flour
Meat packing
n
n
Poultry dressing
n n
Fluid milk, creamery
butter, ice cream,
other dairy products
n • ii
Fluid milk, ice cream,
other dairy products
n .11
Ice cream
Fluid milk, ice cream
Frozen fruits and vegetables
Miscellaneous prepared foods
Meat packing
Creamery butter, misc. dairy pats,
Misc. dairy products
Fluid milk, misc. dairy pdts
Meat packing
n
n
n
n
Poultry dressing
n ii
Creamery butter, ice cream
Fluid milk, cheese, creamery
butter, ice cream
-------
22
TABLE 10
AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS (Cont'd)
Location
Firm
Product or Process
Caldwell
Boise River Basin (Cont'd)
Parma
Mountain Home
Emmet t.
Nampa Creamery Co.
Alpenrose Dairy
Nampa Custom Cannery
General Foods Co.
W. Idaho Potato Growers,
Inc.
Gem State Potato Chip
Co., Inc.
Nampa Cider & Vinegar
The Nampa Elevator
Amalgamated Sugar Co. -
Greenleaf Custorr
Slaughter
Idaho Meat Packers, Inc.
Johnston Bros.
Carter Packing Co.
Dairymen's Coopera-
tive Creamery of
Boise Valley
Flavor Freeze, Inc.
J. R. Simplot Co.
Western Idaho Potato
Growers, Inc.
Caldwell Flour'Mills
Parma Ice Co.
Mt. Home Ice & Storage
Co.
Young's Dairy Products
Creamery butter
Fluid milk, icej cream
Canned fruits and vegetables
Frozen fruits and vegetables
Frozen potatoes
Potato chips
Cider and vinegar
Blended and prepared flour
Beet sugar
Meat packing
1!
II
II
II
Fluid milk, creamery butter,
ice cream, dried skim milk,
other dairy products
Ice cream
Canned, frozen, dehydrated
potatoes, fruit and vegetables
Frozen potato products
Blended and prepared flour
Meat packing
Fluid milk, misc. dairy products
Payette River Basin
Claude's Custom Pack
Emmett Meat Co.
Gem Creamery Co.
Emmett Dairy
Gem Canning Co.
Meat packing
n ii
Fluid milk, creamery butter
Fluid milk
Canned fruits and vegetables
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23
TABLE 10
AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS (Cont'd)
Location
Firm
Product or Process
Payette
Fruitland
New Plymouth
Council
Weiser '
Baker '
Nyssa
Homedale
Ontario
Payette River Basin
Wells & Davies
Farmers Cooperative Creamery
Clover Lawn Dairy
Home Dairies, Inc.
Idaho Canning Co.
Payette Cider & Vinegar Co. '
Bratcher Meat Pack
Frontier Dairy
Allei/'s Custom Cannery
Fruitland Canning Assn., Inc.
Top Canning, Inc.
Weiser River Basin
Williams- Custom Service
Independent Meat Market
Home Dairies, Inc.
Lewis Berry, Inc.
Weiser Flour Mills
Meat packing
Fluid milk, cheese,
creamery butter, misc.
dairy products
Fluid milk
ii n
Canned fruits and vegetables
Cider and vinegar
Meat Packing
Fluid milk
Canned fruits and vegetables
Meat packing
n n
Fluid milk
Frozen strawberries
Blonriod and prepared flour
Powder River Basin
Eastern Oregon Meat Co., Inc.
Valley Dairy, Inc.
Snake River
Treasure Valley Packing Co.
Clover Lawn Dairy
Idaho Canning Co.
Amalgamated Sugar Co.
Owyhee Meat Packers
Boston's Beef House
Pioneer Meat Packers
Farmers Cooperative Creamery
Ore-Ida Foods
Meat packing
Fluid milk, ice cream
Meat Packing
Fluid milk, misc. dairy pdts.
Canned fruits and vegetables
Beet sugar
Meat packing
Meat packing
n n
Ice cream
Frozen potatoes, fruits and
vegetables, dehydrated
. potatoes
-------
Amalgamated Sugar Co, refinery at -\yssa, and three meat packing
plants, Wells-Eavies at Payette, King Packing Co. at. Sam-pa, and.
Swift and Co. at Boise, all provide substantial employment and
proGuce rcr si.zaaoie ano far—rlung marine'—s»
Output of these plants is, for the most part, only estimable;
fee? reliable production figures are available. A 1953 estimate of
output of dairy products included:
Creamery butter 22,530,000 pounds
'Ice cream 1,250,000 gallons
Cheese • 35,COG pcur.ds
,L/__ -^ •_. ", . , J , i. _L_\. —.•«-.' ^ *J . L/ 'w' '-/ J O*.. .-^. ^3
' . . !/,_..„. ..
amcunred to 153.5 -;illicn pcur.ds at I\a~pa, 175.4 million pounds' at
Xyssa, produced in a season of 153 days of round-the-clock operation.
I/ U •::-••: Sn?/.:3 -•'.i'v-ir I./sv-'.. • "•. .'.. ^'\r ••..".-•••• .ie~ort. b. ^.
-------
25
D. :Forest Products
Cn tHe nortnern oorcers or une vjeivcral incite '.basm, tr*e slopes
of the Sawtooth Mountain Range of Idaho and the Wai Iowa Mountains of
Oregon contain large tracts of forest. Most of Boise National Forest,
portions of Payette National Forest, Sawtooth National Forest, and
Wallowa Whitman National Forest lie within the -basin, and these . -
provide the raw materials for a steadily growing lumber industry.
The total extent of ccr—.ercial forest land in southern Idaho is
estimated by the U. S. Forest Service to include some 8.1 million acres:
5.2 r.-iliio-.! acres of sawtivaber, 2.0 trillion acres of pole tinber, 04
million acres cf seedlings and sailings, 0!his land is concentrated on
the vresttrn sieves cf the C^ntinenjal Tivida and the finger valleys
the -ajar ^.aru of the sawti-ber, As a result/ abcut 70 percent of
southern Idr.hc's wood prcduczs ind^srries e:r>loy."inu.. 85 percent of its •
I/
which account for about 43 percent and 35 percent., respectively, of
lunber -production. L'odgepole pine, true firs, and Ingelman spruce are
.other cc-r^ereially exploited speciei, with so-e white pine, western
larch, and other species also harvested. Sawtir.ber reserves are
estimated to amount to roughly 43 billicn board feet.; with Zcuglas
-------
C.-ryheo
Payetta
Counliv
Ac. a
Adams
Boise
Cony on
El-iore
c
Total Lar.d Area C:.rr.cl. rorooi % Lr.r.d Aroa. ir. % Idaho
CAcrei^ .''Ac-.:-r"; Cr.^I. ?.s t . Forest
• . 670, COO 2;000 0.4 Magii
go-: /->, - -. i-50 ''O^ 51.1 2.
3""^ - • ~ ' ^ ; *• """
1.024.000 833.000 GO. 5 5-
371.000 i.COO 0.0 Xegli
1,S50,000 . 393,000 2.:.1 • 2.
-> ; - "- - -. ' - .- -> - -."o •; r>,
J-.-J,U-'J -.•J.VUw' ^...., ^.
Co^r.cl.
Are 2
gible
8
5
gible
6
3
-- - > -
A:; iigible
•J,
22,159,000
-------
27
A net annual growth potential of 1,3 percent per year suggests annual
growth at a rate of about 520 million board feet, ccr.vjared to production
in i9o6 or about 275 nillion board feet.— Southern Idaho timber stands
however, are often "remote ana present access dif f icultias,. lv:eir
exploitation involves high potential costs, and proceeded sl:~7ly
during tae moribunc luv:.oar :v:ir~cet existing in the late nineteen-f if ties.
nas ceen a relatively vigorous segment of the natio.u.J.. forest orocucts
industry., ,.rv: _cy:.:ent nas gro:.vi in the face of a decline in national
ei^plo/zeat in iur.ibering and related producti ; and sc^^hern Ic.i.ho's
e~pioy^-ar in. the Central Snahe Zasin., Id_.ho and the L'* S^
Central Snake Basin
2232-/ •
Idaho • 12.0S5-'7 11,54.1: 95OOC5./ .
U. S. • SOS, 003 £••' 537. CCO 552,0002
I/ Idaho lumber production reached a record 1.51 billion^ board =eez^_
in 1555. Though -production subsequently i.;.t;-ir.3a a level or 1.55 oiilion
board feet in 1950, regional breakdowns are.no': available.
e/ Oregon Zept. of Labor, lea. Irvployv-ent Security Agency covered
-------
28
The forest products industry of the Central Snake Basin has
achieved a rather high degree of efficiency and resource utilization.
Small sawmills producing for local markets have tended to disappear
from tiie manufacturing scene, being replaced by larger, more efficient
•units whose output finds its way into national markets, laz-gely in the
midwest. A part of the growrh experienced by the area's wood products
industry has occurre-d in response to expansion of wood pulp output.
Some roundwcod legged in ;ha Central Snake Basin finds a market at
.midwastern pulp planus. Sawmill residuals as well as rcuncwcod are
dispatched to two regional pulp mills, one at Lewistcn, Xdahc where
'the Cler.rwar.er joins the Snake, one at Uailula, Uashington, vr.ere
V
•the Snake and Columbia join.—
. A number of firms mak-^ uo the Central Snake v/ood products
industry.- These include independent logging contractors, -whose . .
emp-loyment roster may typically vary frcm cne to zhirty persons, more than
twcnry 'sawmills, mostly of medium si^e', out with employment varying from
four to seven-hundred persons., a veneer planr., a plywood plant, fabricators.
of structures and structural members, and a pair of box factories.
Principal firms are listed in Table 13, woodworking plants are
mainly small, local cabinet shops employing one to five personso Not-
able .arr.ong the woodworking slants i.T. the l-'srshall Fixture Co. of Payette,
which employs over thirty r;eoole ih procuc_nv -;.".urcl': zurniture.ror a
\j ~2':.~~ '.Seise Cascad- C;:s ITallula mill depends er.zirely or. resicua_s
ror rrs raw maiierra_ mcur^ anc r.'ie company s nuge ^.".mrie'C'c p^anc ~LS
among the mill's -orinci^al suppliers.
-------
TABLE 13
FOREST PRODUCTS FIRMS
29
Location
Elm ore County
Boise
v.'eathe
_, C' ~~ ~ e
....arisen
. Karbur
Gordon
Guy Ha
Ralph
>L C.
— '£ OOUC
i ~"i ch'v " ^3
Firm
rby Logging Co.
roy .,_u::.oar Co.
Cascade Corp,
L'ros ,
-Le Eno Corp.
Harris
rris Lu-ber Co.
Miller Logging
ICelson
ers Lu-ber Co.
rd's Sav-ill Co.
Product
or
Process
Logging
C* -~ ~ -.-•> * "S "
-i • -- -i
i>£-..T.".j- .A. J.
jjC^^^Vlg
Legging
cogging
Sa--— ill
L; o r" '•r in v"
Logging
St.- --ill
Levying
Ssr-iil
Capacity
(1/000 FT/
Dav")
70
"7 j^
70
70
25
35
12 C
30
30
8
Employ-
ment
25
5
20
Cambridge
Cascade
Council
ber Co.
2.0
.arry R. Dougias
Cr^on Hyde
Coker Lovcing Co. Lcvging
Jones Indus-cries Inc. ?re-7ab struc-
tures
Jones Roof Structures .,
Inc. ?re-?ab ccr.pcn-
Pressure-treated Timber
Co. . Component's
Ostrcn Tivmber £.-
Xouiding Co.
Iron Mountain Lumber
Co.
L. C. Smith t Sen
Zoise Cascade Cor^D,
Hays Logging Co,
Long Valley Legging,
Inc.
loise Cascade Corp.
Glen Harrington Legging
XacGregor Triangle Co. Logging
40
50
SC
70
14
-------
TABLE 13-^Cont'd)
FOREST PRODUCTS FIRMS
Product Capacity Employ-
Location Firm or (1,000 FT/ ment
. _ .Process Day)
Council jack Ds shephard Logging
Emmett Boise Cascade Corp. Sawmill, chips,
moldings,
components '600 700
Fuller & Baker Logging
DeDee Box Factory Boxes
Fruitvale Rice Logging Co. Logging 30
Horseshoe Bend Hoff Lumber Co. Saw.r.ill, mold-
63
M. W. Renfroe
KcCall ' Brown's Tie & . Sawmill, ties,'
Lumber Co.' • paneling, 80 230
flooring,
components
• 80
George ikola Logging
Lake Fork Lumber
Co_ Sawmill
Seatin!s, Inc, Logging. 50 22
Co, Logging
Meridian Idaho Pine Co. Saw.r.ill. molding, 55
paneling,
components
Mountain Home Sawtooth Lumber
Co, Sawmill-Timbers 50
Engelm'j.Tt & Landers Logging
J. E< Johnson Logging
Jones Sawmill Logging
New Meadows J. I. Morgan, Inc. Legging 300 105
Pack Legging Co. Logging.
Gem County Ola Lumber Co. Saw::, ill
Logging ' 40
Boise County Placerville Lumber
Co, Sawmill ' 10 .
Logging 15 5
Adams County Price Valley Tim-
ber, Inc. Sawmill 75 55
Losgins 80 20
-------
TABLE IS-'CCcnt'd) 31
FOREST PRODUCTS FIRK3
Product Capacity Employ-
Location Firm or (1,000 FT/ merit
. . Process Day) ,
' 24,000,COO2?
Payette Payette Ply.vocd Corp. ?ly\;ood
Idaho Venaer ?rod. , Inc. Veneer
Nan? a Idaho Box i Lu:.:ber Co. Bo::;s
Ontario • Timber La~.ir.ators, Inc. 1-ra-rab.
er.ts 25
Baker ' Baker Lumber Kills, Inc. Sa-.:.:.ill 45 33
Burnt River Lumber Co. . Sav.-.r.ill, 60 147
molding,
.paneling,
•chips
Sa^il!, panel-
ing 100 125
j^> O
Eastern Oregon Lu--ber
../111 £<•-..-.-ill 15
Bruin Prairie logging L:g^ing 40 6
Baker County. Chr-ii; Bros. Locgin-g
-------
The significance of forest products activities to the economic
life of the Central Snake Basin is evident. It accounted for 22 percent
of all employment in rnanuf acturiiig in the area in i960. In Valley, Adams,
and Boise County, forest products provided almost ail manufacturing
employment ; - and in Gem, 21moi-e, and Baker Counties, forest products
accounted for T-rell over half of zozal manufacturing employment . In terms
of values added by manufacturing," lumbar and weed produces manufacturing
in Idaho resulted in values added retailing roughly s?,050 per employee
I/
.~ _.f the state figure .V.E.V be reasonably distributed on the basis
.
of emplG>ment, then values added by manufacturing in uhe Central Snake Easin
exceeded S13 million rn 1550, ane a""ear to have risen rather sharply in
I/ Annual Survey of Manufacturing (1961), i-art 8: Mountain
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32
S. Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction
'-.'hile food processing and lumbering continue to dominate Central
Snake manufacturing, othar manufacturing activities have displayed
vigorous growth, as increasing population and industrial diversifi-
cation have opened new markets. In tha 1550-50 decade, a new manu-
facturing job in occupations other than lumbering and food processing
was created, on an average, for every two jobs in the dominant rp.anu-
facturinj industries; and tha percentage of the labor force engaged
in miscellaneous 'manufacturing expand3a from 2.3 to 3.8.
Shoving more rapid growth than food processing, the fabrication
of mobile dwellings became an important industry of the area in the
lat-i ninac^ei'i-Zi l'd±z and early si::.:ies . ho less than nina firms
were-established — five in 2oise; two in ivampr.} 'one each in Caldweli
and V'eisar. Guerdon Industries ("loise) and Xit Manufacturing Ccmoeriy
(Caldwall) are the largest, vith employment e::caLding 100 at ;aak
periods. .
Printing and publishing provide a surprisingly significant
part of the region's industrial diversification. Almost every town
has a weekly newspaper, and three dailies (in Boise, iTampa, c.nd
Caldwell) are supported by the thinly populated region. I:: addition,
a weli-ectablishad publishing house, Caxton ?ress of Caldwell. and
the Syms-York. Company of Boise give, the area two relatively large
and elaborate printing establishments.
-------
33
Local agricultural and food-processing industries have provided
markets for diverse products. Beall Pipe and Tank Corporation
(Boise; fabricates farm implements, steel tc^ar-s, and irrigation
equipment. Parma falser Lifter Company (Parma) produces pumps
whose main uso is in irrigation. HcCallum Harvester, Inc. (Boise) .
produces harvesting and seeding machinery for use in cultivation
of sugar beets and potatoes. Western Conveyor Company (Boise)
fabricates various materials-handling devices., originally con-
ceived in response to food -roces-sors' needs, though the range
of markets has since broadened. The number of smaller f'L~£ .
largely serving local industrial and consumer markets, ccrU'ir.ues
to expand, and has been a noticeable feature of the overall trend
to urbanization.
/•hile .miscellaneous manufacturing is only beginning to affect
the accncmic structure of the Central Snake area, construction hc.s
for many-years been a major force. -In cerr.s of employment, it hc.s
consistently occupied'about eight percent of the labor force. In
part, this is explainable by a high relative rate of population
growth. In larger part it may be traced to the comparatively
undeveloped character of the region, and the consequent opportunity
for large-scale developmental projects. During the last deci.de,
this took the form of dam building (Idaho Power Company's Snake
River facilities), highway improvements, extensive urban develop-
ment centered on the City of Boise, and installation c~ the Mountain
Home military complex.
-------
34
While the import of capital in connection with development o'f
the region has bser. tha principal factor in maintaining high levels
of cor.struc.tiop, activity—a characteristic of most parts of the
western United States — the Central Snr.ke area also benefits from
the location in Boise of the headquarters or the Morrisor.-Knudsen
Company, one of the world's largest construction fim:s. The admin-
ins t rat ive and depot functions of the.company at Soisa provide a
solid, core of construction employment, considerably less cyclical
than that typical of the industry.
-------
35
F. Irade and Services
Trade and services for the Central Snake Basin are supplied in
large part from the City of Boise. Indeed, Boise, Idaho's capital,
supplies governmental and administrative services for a much larger
area, as '.veil as providing many whol esal i ng and professional functions for
all of southern Idaho and a good part of eastern Oregon.
Boise's specialization in services has contributed to some apparent
scarcity of service availability in other areas; a lack that is intensifed
by population sparsity and, in some places, by the competing claims of
adjacent communities for the custom of the rural market for services.
Thus, the outlying communities of Weiser (Washington County), Baker
(Baker County), and Mountain Home (Elmore County) have all. developed '.
a fairly broad range of -services; while Payette, Gem, and Malheur
Counties and the eastern part of Canyon County have developed co'rr.T.ercial
patterns based on the presence of several communities within a relatively
restricted area, each contributing in part to satisfying service xc'i airr.s
of an area embracing several towns and the interstitial rural population.
The variations in service availability resulting from -the presence
of a major service center within an area of lev; average population density
are suggested in Table lA, which lists- by county the proportion of the
labor force employed in trades and services in I960. Although it
contains a State capital, the Central Snake Basin had a somewhat lower
proportion of service employment than the Nation. Indeed, despite the
contributions to service employment created by government, the service
ratio was .ov/er than that for the eleven western states, and lower
than the national ratio in every county out one.
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36
TABLE 1*t
COUNTY SERVICE EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE, 1960i/
Percent Service Employment
Area
Ada County • • ' 68.8
Canyon County 5^.^
Washington County ' ^8.8
Baker County . k8.5
Val1ey County k6. ~f
Malheur County kS>5
Payette County k'j.k
Adams County ^3-0
Owyhee County 3^-8
Gem County 3^-6
El more County 3^-5
Boise County . 23-7
Central Snake Basin 55-8
Eleven Western States 58.1
United States 57-'^
a/ U. S. Census of Population, I960.
The extent to which the City of Boise dominates trade and services
in the Central Snake Basin is suggested by Table 15- With just over 29
parcenr of the Basin's I960 population, the Boise urbanized area provided
roughly k? percent of all service employment in the Basin, end over a
_/
third of total employment in each service industry classification except
railroad transportation.
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37
TABLE 15
Proportion of Total 1950 Service Eraployrnant Occurring in Boisa Urban A.rea—'
Railroads and railway express • 6%
Other transportation and warehousing 36
Communications and utilities. 46
Wholesale trade ' 41 •
Retail trade ' 37
Financial, business and repair service . 55
Personal service 58
Education 33
Other professional services 58
• Public administration 61
All services 45
_a/ Source: U. S. Census of Population. The table assur.es that employment
.distribution in the Boise urbanized area was siv.rilar to that of residents
of the City of .Boise. Correspondence with Ada Cour.::y totals 'is high and
the Bicture seems 'faithful.
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38
The- rather low level of service availability and rate of growth
of service employment relative, to the Nation (C? Table 6) may be traced
largely to low population density. Contributing to the region's deficiencies
as a market for services is a level of personal income distinctly below
national and regional standards, as suggested by the data in Table 16,
contrasting Idaho income per capita from 1950 .to 1952 with that of the
United States, the Rocky Mountain States, and the Pacific Coast States.
TABLE 16
Comparison of Par-Capita Income,. 195C-1952^//
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 •
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
a/ U.S.
• Idaho
1279
-1446
1574
1499
1494
15 13
1654
"I *" ~i <"•
io / o
•1728
1793
1755
1810
1941
Dept.of Co
U.S.
1491
1649
1727
1788 '
1770
1866
1975
2C48
2064
2163
2217
2267
2366
mmerce : Survey
Pacific Coast
1733
1975
2068
2103
2039
2210
2326
2397
• 2430
2572
2625
2637
2SOO
of Current Business,
xocky Mountain
1425
• 1642
' 1699
1657
- f - i~)
IQJJ: •
• 1701
1793
1834
1965
2023
2083 -
2104-
2205
August, 1963.
VJhile Idaho per-capita income is probably understated in the table,
due to the inability of such figures to adequately reflect the substantial
non-cash income of those engaged in agriculture, the general magnitude and
the persistence of the gap between Idaho and adjoining areas are obvious.
Pressure en farm prices, which contributed to a national lag in agricultural
income, is at least partially responsible for maintaining the ir-ocme cis-
•»'
parity between Idaho. and adjoining are33- The level of wage and salary
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39
payments in the state has also worked to hold down the level of personal
income, as'suggested by Table 17 which compares average hourly earnings
in manufacturing and in retail sales in Idaho and adjoining states.
TABLE 17
Comparison of Average Hourly Earnings, Kfg. 6: R.etail Trade,
Idaho and Bordering Statesfi/
Average Ho-
. 1950
Manuf ac tvrr ing ,
Retail trade,
a/ U. S. Deot.
and Areas, 193
Idaho
Oregon
Utah
rlontana
Idaho
Oregon
Utah
of Labor:
9-62.
$1.
1 .
1.
1.
1.
Srrslov
56
79
41
61
04
merit
1
$2
2
2
2
'T
i.
2
"-
and
u r ly
960
.25
.55
.46'
.45
.79
.12
.93
^ c'. ITT:
Ecumi1
19
$2
2
2
2
1
. 2
'2
i"c",s
-:~s As 7,
52 1950
.34
.64 115
.66 90
.53 103
.90
.34
.06
Statistics
Idaho
1962
113
114
110
123
109
for States
'Chile no per-capita income figures are available for the Central
Snake Basin distinct from, the State of Idaho, personal inccrr.e., as measured
by family income, would appear to be lower and to have risen no'more
rapidly. The analysis of growth of Tr.ediavi family income in the counties
of the Basin presented in Table 18 indicates that in 1960 only one county
in- the area >iad a family income level above the Nation's, and that inccr.ie
growth has lagged behind national and regional standards, in spite of the
significant growth of manufacturing during the fifties.
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40
Table 18
Trend of Median Family Income, by County, 19li9-1959 I
Area
Pacific Coast States
Ada County
Mountain States
Nation
Valley County
Baker County
Idaho
Central Snake Basin
Adams County
Boise County
Elmore County
Canyon County
Malheur County
Gem County
Payette County
Washington County
Ovryhee County
1 9
Median Family
Income
$351*5
3250
3101
3073
3630
2803
30k6
2912 b/
3013
236k
3171
2768.
2752
2629
2315
2600
2257
h 9
As % of
U.S.
112
106
101
' 118 • '
91
99
95
98
77.
103
90
90
86
76.
85
70
1 9
Median Family
Income
$6572 •
5868
5660
-5660
51*22
5266
5259 .
5088 '
1*976
1*771*.
1*769
1*596
1*551*
1*1*67
1*310
1*231
1*199
5 9
As % of
U.S.
116 '
.* - lOli
100 .
95
93
93
: 90
80' '
81*
8k
• 81
. 80
79
76
75-
71*
1959
As % of
19U9
185
' 166
183
I8k
11*9
188
• 172
.175
166
202
150
166
'165
170
• 186
163
186
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, I960.
b/ Mean of county medians weighted by.population.
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41
G. Minerals and Mining
The working of mineral deposits, has, from time to time, been a
significant part of the economy of the Central Snake Basin. For the
most part, such deposits in recent years have proved marginal or near
marginal, soon depleted, or abandoned under all but the most favorable
market circumstances. The 1958 dissolution of Valley County mining
enterprises that had supplied a substantial portion of the'Nation's .
supply of antimony and tungsten, as well as important amounts of mercury,
represented the end. of the latest period of mineral exploitation of more
than regional significance.
In the mid--nineteen-sixti.es mineral industry activity is largely
restricted to providing sand and gravel for local and highway construction;
production of lime in Baker, Malheur and Canyon Counties--principally '
for use in regional sugar refineries — arid the operation of the Oregon
Portland Cement Co. at Lime (Baker County), whose employment of about
125 persons has been maintained by dam construction. In recent years,
mineral commodities which have been developed in the Central Snake Basin
included: ' . .
Columbium-Tantalum, obtained from dredging of alluvial sand
deposits in Valley County, represented practically all of U. S.
production in the late nineteen-fifties. Ilmenits (a source of
titanium); garnet, for use in abrasives; rare earths and other
minerals were obtained from the same source.. Production ended in
1959.
!_/ The closure of these mines made Stibnite, which had a 1950 population
of over 700, a ghost town, contributed to a 14 percent decline in Valley
County population, and a decline from a level of family income 15 percent
above the national average in 1950 to one four percent below the Nation in
1960.
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42
. Gold and silver are obtained by small scale placer mining.and as
a by-product of other mining activities..
Mercury has been obtained in Washington County by open-pit mining,
in Valley County and Malheur County.
Iron ore is produced at Iron Mountain, near Weiser. Ore is
beneficiated at the site, and shipments have averaged up to 55-60 percent
iron content.
Titanium concentrates derived from ilmenite deposits in Valley County
and elsewhere in Idaho have been reprocessed by the J. R. Sinrpiot Co. plant
in Boise. Garnet abrasive material has been similarly produced.
Uranium has been derived as a by-product of Valley County euxenite
deposits. .Processing of the ores v?as carried out in other parts of the
Nation.
Clays used in producing building brick are found in Ada and Elmore
counties; 'bentonite, used as drilling mud and canal liner, has been taken
in Owyhee County.
Gypsum, marketed as agricultural gypsum,-has been produced intermittently
from a surface mine near Ueiser (Washington County).
Lime stone, and liir.e are produced in Baker, Malheur, arid Canyon
counties. Markets are found in regional cement plants, sugar refineries,
and in agriculture. Chemical Lime Co., Baker, produces large quantities
of quicklime used in production of calcium carbide and cyanamid, in pulp
manufacturing and in steel and aluminum plants.
• Lead and zinc have been produced in small quantities from Gem and
Boise county deposits and cooper ore has been produced in insignificant
amounts in Adams County.
Value of mineral shipments over the five years 1957-1961 is listed
by county in Table 19.
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43
TABLF 19
a/
VALUE OF MINERAL PRODUCTION, 1957-1961 -
County
Ada
Adams
Boise .
Canyon
Elmore
Gem
Owyhee
Payette
Valley
Washington
Baker
Malheur
Value of Shipments
1957 1958 1959
380 611 613
202 N.A. 22
($1.OOP's)
1960 1961
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
41 348
500
N.A.
N.A. 34 2 35 N.A.
185 170 263 . 282 465
402 689 520 196 91
95 44 12 214 194
79
N.A. — 106 37
1182 1213 641 35 N.A.
578 1056 484 840 N.A.
N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4927
909 845 1008 457 735
Products
Sand & gravel, clays, gold
Sand £ gravel, copper, silver,
gold
Sand & gravel, gold, silver
Lime, sand & gravel, pumice
Sand & gravel, gold, columbium,
tantalum, silver, clays.
Sand & gravel, gold, silver,
lead, -zinc
Sand & gravel, gold, clays,
siIyer, lead
Sand & gravel
Colubiurn-tantalum, mercury,
monazite, ilmenite, rare
earths, sand & gravel, garnet,
thorium, gold, silver.
Sand & gravel, mercury, iron
ore, gypsum, gold, silver.
Cement, stone, lime, sand &
gravel, clays, gold, silver
Sand & gravel, mercury, stone,
gold, clays, silver, lime.
a./ Source: Minerals Yearbook, 1958-1961.
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44
III. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
( An economic forecast for the period 1960 to, 2010 must be understood
in terms of probabilities, of the inter-action of 'trends and resources.
Major assumptions underlying this study have been developed for the
Nation and the Pacific Northwest by inter-agency economic study committees.
Application of the growth rates established in these assumptions to
specific areas such as the Central Snake Basin is judgmental, involving .
a consideration of the resource base, the evolution of social attitudes,
and degree of maintenance of trends. '
(On the strength of such procedures, output levels may be established
for principal industries; and the hypothesizing of productivity and labor
force participation rates permits projection of population dispersion.
The end product., however, must be viewed as a gene-ral outline of probabil-'
ities, neither a prediction nor a detailed industrial forecast.)
A. Agriculture
Agricultural production may be expected to continue to be the major
force underlying .the economy. The area is a favored one with regard to
fertility and adaptability of soils; and climate and growing season lend
themselves to agricultural production.
The raw input of land is not expected to increase to an appreciable
extent. The Soil and Water Conservation Needs Inventory for the States
of Oregon and Idaho offers the basic framework of lands available for
various purposes in 1958, together with an estimate for 1975. This is
presented in Table 20.
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45
TABLE 20
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS, 1958 AND 19^5 (000*s ACRES)
Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elinor e County
(Boise River Basin)
Boise County
Valley County
Gem County
Payette County
(Payette River Basin)
Washington County
Adams County
(Weiser River Basin)
Owyhee County
Malheur County
Baker County
TOTAL 1
1958
Crop-
land
109.6
229.0
49 oO
(387.6)
14o7
59.7
51.4
59,1
(184.9)
114.6
45.4
(160.0)
93.2
220.1
l"a- (466.4)
,198.9
Pasture-
lanc1
197.5
74.2
348.7
(620.4)
80o3
14.5
153,7
128.0
(376.5)
488 „ 3
135.0
(623.3)
505.0
1,281,4
642'3 (2429.2)
4,045.4 1
1975
Crop-
land
113.6
243.0
140 06
(502.2).
10o7
52.9
55,2
58,6
(177.4)
114.1
44,9
(159.0)
95,9
220,1
157-° (473.0)
,311.6 .
Pasture-
land
178.7
62o8
31002
(551o
77.6
20.3
149 oO
127.8
(374.
484.4
134.8
(619.
505.0
1,386.4
"3-° (2524.
4,070.0 .
7)
7)
2)
4)
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46
The principal addition to cropland indicated by the inventory is
in Elmore County, where the Bureau of Reclamation has proposed a complex
group of irrigation possibilities that would bring 100,000 acres under
cultivation. Unquestionably, the addition of irrigation capabilities will
have a greater bearing on increased output than any change in total acreage
of land devoted to agricultural use. At this time, the Bureau of Reclama-
tion has considered projects involving the new irrigation of 400,000 acres
in the Central Snake Basin, of which the Elmore County projects involve the
largest single parcel. In addition, individual irrigators show no sign
of slacking the pace at which they add to irrigation. Private irrigation
additions between 1959 and 1963 may be estimated at something in excess
of 80,000 acres. For the most part, private development takes the form
of pumping from wells; but at least two ambitious south-side Snake Projects
involve lifts up the steep walls of the Snake River Canyon'--and in one
case, a total of 40,000 irrigated acres is envisaged.
Obviously the pace of new irrigation must slow over the next fifty
years; there are limits to the availability of soil and water. Indeed,
maturation of the potato-processing industry and the adjustment to the
expansion of the market for beet sugar (created by disruption of established
supply sources) indicate that the exceptional market growth that spurred
development of irrigation after 1959 is not presently a factor in promoting
new irrigation. On the other hand, plans to add some 140..COG acres over
the next decade seem well conceived, and additional individual additions.
on a smaller scale seem to be assured. To establish a figure for planning
use, it is assumed that the rate of addition to irrigation between 1959
and 1985 will be equal to that of the period 1949-63, or .85 percent per
year. On these terms, some 1.2 million acres would be irrigated in 1985.
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47
If the rate is extended to 2010, the total amount of land under
irrigation would amount to 1.5 million acres.
Crop patterns may, in general, be expected to follow existing trends.
Outputs of cattle, dairy.products,' sugar beets, and feed grains seem
likely to continue to rise. Additional candidates for rising production
include swine, poultry, and vegetable products. Growth of Pacific Coast
markets and the constantly increasing degree of processing of products
•/
suggest varied outputs for any area capable of efficiently producing a
range of agricultural products.
The employment opportunities offered by agriculture may be expected
to continue to shrink. While the fantastic improvement of labor productivity
in farming which marked the nineteen-fifti.es can not be expected'to continue,
the techniques now available would permit a considerable reduction.in the
work force simply through continued consolidation of smaller than efficient
farms. It is reasonable, however, to expect a ICWP-./J than national rate'
of employment decline, in view of the large relative, iize of present farms,
and the prospect for substantial additions to irrigation.-!' It is
anticipated, then, that the area will continue to increase its proportion
of total national employment in agriculture.
Setting a target for agricultural employment is awkward. For the
Nation as a whole, a very steep rate of decline has been forecast to
1975, one which anticipates no slowing of the massive productivity gains
2/
of the 1950's.— For the reasons outlined-in the preceding paragraph,
!_/ R. E. Struthers, Bureau of Reclamation economist, in the Role of
Irrigation in Community Economic Structure, U. S. Dept. of interior,
Feb. 1963, suggested that one new farm job is created for every 100 acres
brought under irrigation.
_2/ cf Soecial Labor Force Report No. 28, Employment-Projections by Industry
and Occupation. 1960-1975, and Manpower Report of the President, both U.ST
Dept. of Labor, March 1963" publications.
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48
it v/ould seem unreasonable to apply such a rate to the study area.
Moreover, maintenance of improving labor .productivity at a rate in excess
of 5 percent a year for another quarter of a century strains credulity.
Accordingly, the labor requirements of agriculture 'in the Central Snake
Basin are projected to decline at a rate equal to 75 percent of the 2 percent
national irate for the period 1919-1959, or at 1.5 percent per year, to
!/
1985. Application of this rate projects agricultural employment to
12,000 in 1985.
I/ John P. Henderson, Changes in the Industrial Distribution of Employment,
1919-59. University of Illinois Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
1962.
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49
B. Food Processing
The prospect of increased agricultural outputs, based on more
efficient techniques and the expansion of irrigation, promises the
food -process ing industry of the Central c'aike Basin a continued ade-
quate source cf v&w •.•natarial*- .. The -prod act 3 <•£ -he industry will,
in all' probability, continue to be those new p-;:,vix.,^;.j —rivjt:: .. dairy
goods, sugar--\;ith somewhat more emphasis on pro.::'; s.-.=.i ^.v;/: :: and
vegetables. These are materials which the region it \ si" ;.^:-..ed
to produce.. ar:d which enjoy favorable demand trends. Th.:: v-rc-vesses
tc be employed are not predictable; technology will ur.que;.-;'i-.-::ablj
change — freeze-dryi^g, for example, may well become prevalr.; ir. :'-.s
near future --but oui'-put. levels consistent with. .c'c-.-. •.-..'•joure.;. '. ..se >. .d
Cert-.us Bureau prGjectio'-.^ of populat.'.o.i taay be pro ;•: M. i.^ .
Xeat: p^.ck\r^ holds uhs potenti^-1 fox vig3V'-v.s i^r;v...-
Idaho proi-ac^:.or. of meat animals is vresently aboat cw. .
tim.=t! its slaughter , in terms of wei^v-it. Product 10.. -.-f :::
over, is only slightly higher than stats cons .-.v- . '. ;.
is well able to slaughter, and export, fir.i;-': . •. . . -r;i--:.-."-
its stock, of presently exported animals. This .-• _ld be-
with the trend in force in the industry--packi- near
production rather than in consumption centers. iince .'.-..:
ports not only cattle ; but the feed to fatten them,, chc .
for cattle feeding, slaughter, and meat packing are all :^ .ible
Another regional factor to be taken .'.r.t:' account ii ~ .: fact
that the western states have a marked, thov.:--- t lowly c c : . -AJ, de-
ficiency in pork production relative to consumption. AS efforts to
:vrth.
:. half
.., more-
'. ne area
• from
-pir.t.
it 3
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50
increase hog production succeed, hog slaughter should grow to fill the
production vacuum whose dimensions are suggested in Table 21.
TABLE 21 £/
PRODUCTION, SLAUGHTER AND CONSUMPTION
OF MEAT, 1959 (1,000 POUNDS LIVE WEIGHT)
Pacific Northwest
11 Western States
Idaho
Pacific Northwest
11 Western States
Idaho
a/ Lord, Bruce P..
Production
Hogs
162.8
436.0
43.4
Cattle
1,210.9
5,398.5
447.5
Potential for Meat Packing in
Slaughter
337.2
1,102.0
38.9
Consumption
499.1
2,456.0
63.1
824.0 793.3
4,667.7 3,903.7
173.4 100.3.
Northeastern Oregon.
Oregon State Department of Planning and Development, October 1963.
Demand conditions, too, are favorable. Per-capita consumption
of meat in the United States has been rising at a one percent annual
rate since 1950, with the rise occurring entirely in beef products;
consumption of pork and mutton has declined. Given the present trend
of average income, and the preference for meat as a food, there is
no reason to anticipate saturation or reversal of demand.
The procedure for estimating the dimensions of growth of the
meat-packing industry involves application of rates based on three
factors: (1) continued growth of per-capita demand at about one per-
cent per year; (2) growth of national population, about 1.9 percent .
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51
per year to 1985, almost two percent to 2010 (U. S. Bureau of Census,
P-25, .series II); and (3) growth derived from regional advantage-
processing near the point of production--about one percent a year.
Sugar refining offers a somewhat more touchy projection problem.
Although per-capita consumption of sugar has been fixed for several
decades at 110 to 115 pounds per year, beet sugar has filled a grow-
ing portion of that total. With disruption of normal supply channels
following the suspension of the Cuban quota, and the consequent lift-
ing of domestic production quotas, the advance in production of beet
sugar was particularly rapid. Table 22 suggests the course of this
phenomenon.
'.TABLE 22
SUGAR PRODUCTION IN U". S. AND PRINCIPAL SUPPLYING AREAS;
1945-1962 (1,000'S TONS RAW VALUE)
Yearly Average or Crop Year
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
10,259
11,929
12,271
14,320
7,171
7,298
Beet
1,515
1,784
2 , 100
2,450
2,404
2,585
Beet & °L of 1945-
100
119
139
162
159
!71
The advance in output of beet sugar was most marked in 1963,
when the industry delivered 55,403,450 CWT, compared to 45,155,535
CWT in 1962. The 22.5 percent increase in deliveries was marked by
the large scale acceptance of beet sugar on the eastern seaboard for
the first time, with industrial users supplying the principal demand.
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52
Some moderation of the pace of production expansion created by
the elasticity of supply of beet sugar is indicated by the.con-
traction of previously inflated sugar prices in 1963-64. .But it is
unlikely that the beet sugar industry will give up its gains. —'
The Snake Basin has had more than its share of these. Between 1949
and 1959 the output of sugar beets in the Upper and Central Snake
Basins increased from 1.37 million tons to almost 2.4 million tons,
or by 75 percent—half again the overall rate of growth.
In order to arrive at reasonable output projections, it is
assumed that:
(1) Sugar output increased at the national rate for beet sugar,
or about 30 percent, between 1959 and 1963.
(2) There will be no per-capita loss of sugar consumption. —
(3) Beet sugar will resume the process of increasing its share
of the total.market for sugar at the .7 percent rate of 1950 to 1960.
Processed potatoes, whose output and market acceptance skyrocketed
'during the last decade, shoul'd also show substantial increases in pro-
duction. It would appear,' however, that the major growth of the in-
dustry will take place in eastern Idaho, where the advantages of potato
a/ The permanence of the gains made by beet sugar are tacitly acknowl-
edged by the failure to apportion the Cuban quota'among other
foreign producers. Since the domestic lands suitable to growing
sugar cane are limited, and, in effect, a part of the Cuban quota
has been arrogated by beet sugar, the policy problems involved in a
rollback of beet production by a realignment of the quota to re-
store the cane/beet balance seem unlikely to be encountered.
o
b_/ This may be a somewhat debatable conclusion. General recognition
of excessive caloric intake of Americans has, among other phenomena,
involved efforts to curtail sugar consumption. Should this persist,
the resulting loss of per-capita consumption would be unlikely to
result in development of substitutive outlets, since the domestic"
price structure excludes the possibility of export, except under
massive subsidies.
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53
culture over other .agricultural production are more marked than in
the Central Snake area.. Increased efficiency--including the stretch-
out of the production season from the present 120-150 days to about
\
200 days by 1985—should be expected. It is unlikely, however, that
total output will grow faster than population.
The projection of output for potato processors, then, is based
on more efficient utilization of capacity rather than aggressive
expansion. Embodying the efficiency increment in a stretch-out of
the processing campaign from an average of 135 days to 200 days each
year, it is assumed that a similar rate of output expansion—equal to
1.4 percent per year, less than forecast national population growth--
is maintained through the succeeding quarter century.1
Processing of dairy products, like the dairy farming upon which
it is built, has expanded .vigorously in the Central Snake region, and
should continue to rise, based on the trend toward greater per-capita
consumption of dairy products. Table 23, which contrasts population
growth and marketing of whole milk and cream, indicates the relative .
growth of dairying in Idaho.
TABLE 23
MARKETING TRENDS FOR WHOLE MILK AND CREAM COMPARED TO
POPULATION TRENDS, 1949-1959
1959 as a percent of 1949
Area
Population Pounds of milk sold.
United States 118 141
Pacific Coast States 140 139
Mountain States 135 .166
Idaho 113 176
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54
With consumption of milk products rising nationally at a rate
about twice that of population, it becomes clear that the needs of
the fast-growing Pacific Coast states, particularly California, are
creating expanding markets for Idaho dairy farmers. With something
over half of Idaho's dairy products produced in the Central Snake
Basin--and the portion is rising—the area should be a principal
beneficiary of the trend.
Output targets are based on three considerations:
(1) Growth of national population,
(2) Growth of par-capita consumption, about .5 percent per year,
(3) . Growth due to the locational.advantages resulting from avail-
ability of suitable agricultural land and propinquity to areas of
rapid population growth; this amounted to about 2.5.percent per year
during the last decade. It is unlikely to be so high in the future,
since transfer of farmland otherwise employed would occur if shortage
pushed dairy prices up appreciably. Arbitrarily, this factor is
assumed to even out at a .5 percent rate during the course of the study
period.
Other, processed agricultural products should display significant
/
growth. The Central Snake Basin's ability to provide a variety of raw
.materials should interact with the trend to greater processing of
foods to create a sustained growth of output of fruits, vegetables,
and prepared foods. Without examining trends for specific products,
it. is assumed that output of miscellaneous food products will grow at
the rate of population, with an added annual increment of .5 percent--
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55
that being the approximate difference between the Nation's rate of
population growth and of expansion of the index of food-processing
output for the twentieth century, and for the recent period,_1947-
1958. £/
Output projections are summarized in Table 24. Sugar output
is based on 1959 production, meat production on an estimate of
slaughter capacity, potato production is an estimate based on plant
capacity and total southern Idaho-eastern Oregon production. Other
processing is presented in the form of an index number.
TABLE 24
OUTPUT PROJECTIONS, PROCESSED FOODS, 1960-2010
Product 1960 1985 2010
Sugar (capacity, tons/day) 9,100 17,700 34,000
Meats (cattle slaughter, head/day) 600 1,500 4,000
Potatoes (capacity, tons/day) 2,800 4,000 5,700 •
Dairy Products (production index) 100 200 400
All Other (production index) 100 180 330
The level of employment to be derived from the expansion of food
processing involves the problem of productivity. During the 1950-1960
decade, output per man hour in a cross section of food-processing
activities rose at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent--with the gains
distributed among segments of the industry with astonishing consistency,
Continued growth of employment productivity on this order could result
in attainment of 1985 and 2010 production projections with no increase
in the labor force.
£L/ Trends and Patterns in U.S. Food Consumption (Agriculture Handbook
No. 214), U.S. Department of Agriculture; June 1961.
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56
Such an eventuality seems unlikely, however. Shorter average
working hours would seem an early result of continued productivity
gains, if past history may serve as a guide; and maintenance of so
marked a rate of improvement also seems a doubtful matter. The U. S.
Department of Labor has projected that increased employment in all
manufacturing will occur at a 1.3 percent annual rate between 1960
and 1975 to meet the Nation's need for goods. Because productivity
gains in food processing were equal to those of all manufacturing
in the last decade, it would appear reasonable to assume a similar
correspondence in the future; and since it has been assumed that
the Central Snake Basin's output of processed foods will serve a
growing portion of the total national demand, a rate of gain some-
what in excess of the rate for all manufacturing would seem plausible.
Employment in food processing, then, is projected, for design purposes,
to rise at a rate equal to the national rate of population growth, with
productivity gains supplying the incremental product to meet demands
arising from larger per-capita consumption. This assumption places
employment among food processors at about 8.5 thousand in 1985.
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57
C. Forest Products
•The output of forest products of the Central Snake Basin may be
anticipated to expand. Although the declining trend of per-capita use
of lumber continues, other wood-based products--notably paper and plywood--
continue to display vigorous demand patterns that contribute to the
need to utilize more intensively the inelastic supply of forests.
It may be assumed with relative, assurance that development of the
Central Snake Basin's timber supplies will become increasingly intensive.
Coastal forest areas are, for the most part, being exploited at, or
above, sustained yield levels. And though the total supply of western
softwood timber should be greater in 1985 than it was in 1960, due to
the assertion of the more rapid growth of young, second-growth tree
stands, continued population growth should result in expansion of demand
that requires broadening use of the southern Idaho-eastern Oregon forest
resource.
Indeed, a case may be made for more rapid demand growth than in the
past. Given stability in slowly declining use of lumber, the rising.
demand for other wood-based products would result in rapid growth. Per-
capita use of wood in the U. S. has been almost stable for two decades--
something over 55 cubic feet in 1940, about 66 cubic feet in 1950
(at the height of the post-war building boom), and 59 cubic .feet in
1960. But the overall dimensions of use conceal some radical shifts
in the form of consumption. Less lumber is used in construction,, but
more plywood is employed; use of wooden boxes and barrels has declined,
while use of paper cartons has skyrocketed. Table 25 presents, in the
form of an index, use of raw wood in various forms at five-year
intervals over the last two decades.
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58
a/
TABLE 25 -'
INDEX OF WOOD USE IN MANUFACTURING, 1940-1960 (1940=100)
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION PLUS NET IMP3RTS
Year
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
j*/ Source:
JV Excludes
Total
100 .
99
134
143
144
Statistical
fuelwood.
Sawlogs
100
93
132
129
122
Abstract
Veneer Logs
100
104
154
276
358
of the U. S.
Pulpwood
100
126
176
216
232
Other.i'
100
• 88
80
72
70
Reduced to average annual growth rates, the index numbers indicate that the
use of wood in various forms is rising at a rate outpacing population growth.
Between 1940 and I960:
. 'Population grew at a 1.55 per cent average rate;
Cut and imports of wood for all purposes grew at a 1.8 percent average
rate;
Cut.and imports of veneer logs grew at a 5.3 percent average rate;
Cut and imports of pulp logs grew at a 4.3 percent average rate;
*
Cut and imports of sawlogs grew at a 0.8 percent average rate.
The results have been a persistent rise in the price of stumpage,
increj .sed imports of wood and wood products (from 5.4 percent of the 7.4
billion cubic feet used in 1940 to 12.4 percent of the 10.6 billion cubic
feet of 1960), fuller utilization of the tree, greater attention to ration-
alized forestry practices, use of trees of lower quality—and growing-use .
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59
of what were, in 1940, secondary forest tracts, notably in the
southeastern states, but including the Central Snake Basin. If the
present trends in timber harvest and wood products manufacturing are
assumed to maintain their force, a projection outlining the course of
the industry's development may be outlined.
(1) The annual cut will increase at a rate somewhat over that of
population growth until the sustained yield level is reached. If it is
assumed that cut will continue to increase, at a rate about a third
faster than population, and that this rate will apply in the study
area, the optimum cut of 520 million board feet, would be achieved
before 1985 (using the 275 million board feet of 1956 as a base, and
applying a 2.5 percent rate.)
(2) Utilization will be more intense—and more, varied. A growing
portion of waste wood will be chipped and used in production of pulp
and board. Attaining this end will require more heavily capitalized
mills, with larger productive capacity to justify added processing
costs. Plywood production, too, should increase materially—the
rising cost of the raw material makes it almost mandatory to make the
highest grade of product to which each tree is suited. Such results
may be achieved1 in two ways: development of forest products complexes
with lumber, plywood, millwork, and chipping under one roof; alternatively,
development of log grading and warehousing by wholesalers, who may sell
logs to users seeking the grades and sizes suitable to their own
operations.
Production of hardboard, pressboard, or similar products seems
likely. The area develops enough chippable residues to supply several
such plants; utilization of these compositions is rising, and is
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60
consistent v/ith the tendency to use wood more intensively. Capital
requirements for establishing production are relatively modest.. The
Baker, Oregon, area seems a likely site for such a plant. Other
possible locations exist along the Boise, Payette, and Weiser Rivers.
(3) Production of wood pulp or paper in the area does not seem
probable.—'. The average size of the economic pulp mill today seems to
begin at 400 tons per day capacity, with most mills installed along the
Pacific slopes rapidly expanding toward a capacity of 700 tons per day
or more. A mill of 700 tons capacity chews up some 435,000 cords of
wood—some 55 million cubic feet--a year. The sustained yield cut of
v
the area has been estimated at about 90 million cubic feet, and the
principal forest products firm of the area presently uses a substantial.
portion of the area's chippable residues at an. established plant-outside
the basin. With a large part of potential pulpwood production already
tied up, and less than twice the total wood supply needed to support
a substantial pulp mill, it would seem unlikely that one would be
established in the area. -Too, the risk of locating a mill in an area
without the resources to support expansion has been enhanced by the
extended reach of established mills for a wood supply. Chips are now
shipped from Emmett to Wallula, more than 200 miles; from Boise to
2/
Lewiston, over 250 miles; as well as to the Middle '.jEst.— With
established plants already reaching into th.-. basin for pulpwood,
_!_/ This judgment conflicts with that of an earlier report upon the
Payette River Basin, which took into consideration only the level of
raw material availability and not the existence of already established
utilization practices. It also disagrees with a forecast prepared for
the Bonneville Power Administration by the Intermountain Forest and
Range Experiment Station of the USDA, which predicts construction of a.
300-ton-per-day mill in southern Idaho between 1972 and 1980.
_2/ One nortlwestern Washington pulp mill reaches into northern Montana
for pulpwood--has even installed special wood-handling equipment to use it.
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61
on the face of things, it is unlikely that there are reasonable
places for a potential Central Snake mill to go for its needs.
(4) Employment will rise with production. This has not been the
case nationally during the last decade, as declining use of lumber and
rising labor productivity—particularly in sawmills, where the demise
of the small mill and increasing inputs of capital in the forms of.
materials-handling machinery and energy have lowered manpower needs.
It does, however, seem a likely course of events in the Central Snake
area for a number of reasons.
(a) In contrast to other timber-producing areas, the
lumber resource is under-exploited, and an increase in the level of
production will be required simply to bring logging to the sustained
yield level.
(b) Southern Idaho forest production has evolved slowly, with
much of its development occurring over the last decade. Relatively
efficient, it does not have the potential manpower savings that are
available to areas with a longer history of extensive forestry.
(c) Increasing difficulty in harvesting timber will be
encountered as the less favorable stands are logged, with a consequent
addition to labor requirements.
(d) A constantly increasing utilization and up-grading of
wood by related manufacturing industries may be anticipated as the area
comes to occupy a larger segment of the total forest products output..
U. S. Forest Service Bulletin PNW-3, Toward Complete Use of Eastern
Oregon's Forest Resources— contains some rough guides to the employ-
ment potential involved in imposing additional manufacturing on wood,
I/ Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, U. S. Dept. of
Agriculture, May 1963.
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62
with the employment gain running from about two and a half times
when logging advances to sawmilling to almost six times when the log
is used to manufacture pulp, plywood, or hardboard.
The dimensions of the gain to be anticipated in employment is
suggested by the U. S. Forest Service which has produced a projection
for all of southern Idaho that assumes sustained yield production by
1980, and an 80 percent gain in employment. If this projection is
adjusted to eliminate 500 workers forecast to be employed in a pulp
mill, a rate of employment .increase similar to that projected for the
dimensions of the total cut, about 2.5 percent per year, is obtained.
The projection, then, strikes a balance between increased cut, increased
productivity (also about 2.5 percent per year, based on the recent past)^
and increased intensity of utilization, by tacitly assuming that they
are approximately equal in effect, with productivity cancelling out
either increased cut or additional utilization. This seems a legitimate
assumption, and the projection, adopted for this report, designs employ-
.ment of 3,500 in forest products industries by 1985.
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63
D. Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Construction
Miscellaneous manufacturing--!.e., all manufacturing other
than food processing and production of lumber and other forest
.products—has, in the Central Snake Basin in recent years, grown
at a rate in excess of other significant sources of employment
opportunities. Growth, however, has been closely related to that
of primary industries, agriculture, food processing, lumbering.
In effect, growth of output and activity in primary industries has
created markets for the products of related industries. To the ex-
tent that growth of the primary industries has resulted in increased
employment and population, broader markets for other products, con-
sumers' goods for the most part, have also been- created.
Viewed in this light, development of miscellaneous manufacturing
is .a function of growth in primary industries, which create a market
atmosphere conducive to entrepeneurship. A projection of employment
may then be made in terms of the dimensions of employment in primary
industries.
(There are, of course, serious disadvantages to such a projec-
tion. VJhile the hazy assumption is made that, for the most part,
production will involve products to be utilized by consumers and by
primary industries, it is entirely possible that wholly unrelated
types of products will appear. This is, in the terms of this study,
immaterial--except in the case of the industry which requires unusual
water supplies or produces large amounts, or serious concentrations,
of waterborne wastes. Unfortunately, there is no means of predicting
the appearance of such an industry. Forecasting techniques have not
reached a level which entitles the projection to pose as prophecy.)
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64
Since the level of employment in miscellaneous manufacturing
is to be viewed in the light of that of the primary industries,
/
no examination of relative growth rates of the varied industries
has been attempted. For the purpose of creating a design economy
for 1985, it is assumed that the experience of the quarter century
1960-1985 will approximate that of the last decade, with one job
created in all other types of manufacturing for each two additional
sources of employment in food processing and lumbering. This would
result in a work force of about 6.5 thousand in 1985.
Construction, too, must- be viewed as an element of continuing
vigor in the regional economy. Most projections of national eco-
nomic activity agree in forecasting rising levels of construction,
based on a growing population's needs for housing, the broader pro-
duction base required by an .expanding economy, and an existing gap
a/
between social welfare demands and institutional capabilities. —
The Central Snake Basin would seem to be an area capable of sup-
porting a particularly high level of construction employment. It
sj One might suggest, too, that forecasters who face the conflicting
circumstances of rapidly rising labor productivity and the postu-
lates of the Employment Opportunity Act of 1946 are tempted to
clutch at increased construction employment as a way out of the
impasse posed by rising population. Development of improved
materials and techniques over the course of the last ten years
has, however, caused a rise in productivity of construction
labor equivalent to that of manufacturing. Since the industry
had previously been notoriously retrograde, there is wide lati-
tude for improvement. It is not improbable that the improvement
of labor productivity in construction over the next ten years
will rival that of agriculture during the last decade. Thus the
industry seems a tenuous sort of refuge for the beset forecaster.
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65
is relatively undeveloped. Belated industrialization and opportuni-
ties for development of a number of natural resource projects suggest
levels of construction somewhat higher than those of industrially
matured areas.
It should be. noted, too, that the staff and depot functions of
the Morrison-Knudson Company give the community of Boise an oppor-^
tunity to share in the overall development of construction, in a
manner analogous to that in which the economic fortunes of a city
v;hich is the site of a major manufacturing plant reflect the experi-
ences of the particular manufacturing industry.
In view of these factors, it does not seem unreasonable to fore-
cast maintenance of the relative weight, of construction employment
over the period 1960-1985 at the same, rather high, 8 percent of the
labor force it has occupied for several decades. Adherence to this
pattern would result in the employment of some 11 thousand at con-
struction in 1985.
E. Trade and Services
Although service employment in the Central Snake Basin rose'
comparatively less rapidly than in the Nation as a whole during the
last decade (cf Table 6), there is little reason to anticipate that
a lag of this sort will be permanent. The combination of rural social
patterns, sub-average personal income, and low population density
that inhibited the development of service industries may be expected
to loosen under the pressures of industrialization and urbanization--
forces evident in the region at this time-.
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66
While the growth of trade and service employment may be antici-
pated to be most marked in the City of Boise, and in the Nampa-
Caldwell, Payette-Ontario industrial centers, these areas may be
expected to contain an increasing proportion of the total popula-
tion of the study area—with the result that occupation and income
patterns should, in the future, tend to bear a more faithful corre-
spondence to national configurations.
Because the employment-generating effects of trade and service
industries tend to be minor, no effort is made to examine growth
trends of specific types of services.—' Instead, the projection of
service employment is presented in terms of the long-term experience
of this segment of the economy. For the Nation'as a whole, the por-
tion of the labor force engaged at service occupations has increased
by an increment of about 0;3 percent per year in this century--
though this rate was exceeded considerably in the course of the last
decade. Roughly .the same proportion of increase in service occupa-
tions occurred in the Central Snake Basin over the last two decades.
Again, the increase was more rapid in the nineteen-fifties than in
the 'forties.
For the purpose of drawing an economic design of the area for
the period 1960-1985, it is assumed that the portion of the labor
force engaged in trade and services will continue to increase at an
incremental 0.3 percent per year. Maintenance of this level of in-
crease would result in employment of roughly 64 percent of the total
labor force—about 87 thousand persons — in trade and service occupa-
tions in 1985.
a/ Manpower Report of the President (March 1963), previously alluded
to, presents such an analysis for the Nation as a whole for the
period 1960-1975.
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67
F. Mining -Fore s t ry-Unemp loyraent
The level of employment in mining is based on an imponderable,
the presence or absence of utilizable mineral deposits. Half a
century ago, a major portion of the area's population was supported,
directly or indirectly, by mining. By I960, only one-tenth of one
percent of the total labor force was engaged in mineral extraction.
In order to create an economic design, it is assumed--eritirely
arbitrarily—that the same number of persons, about 200, will be
engaged in mining in 1985 as were in 1960.
Forestry should continue to display vigorous growth. During
the nineteen-fifties the number employed in. forestry almost doubled--
an annual growth rate of nearly 7 percent. The needs of conservation,
outdoor recreation, higher output of forest products, all indicate
continually expanding requirements for foresters. While a 7 percent
annual growth rate would seem excessive, the obvious need for, and
trend.toward, scientific forest management suggests growth of employ-
ment opportunities at a rate well above the rate of growth of popula-
tion. For design purposes, it is assumed that a rate of growth double
that of national population growth will apply over the period, or about
3.8 percent, and that .some 1.2 thousand will be employed at forestry
by 1985.
Full employment, required under the 1946 law, has generally been
interpreted to mean maintaining a rate of unemployment not exceeding
4 percent of the labor force. Accordingly, 4 percent of the labor
force, 5.5 thousand, are assumed to be unemployed in 1985.
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68
IV. FUTURE LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION
A. 1960-1985
The design pattern of the 1985 economy drawn in the preceding
sections, and summarized in terms of the labor force in contrast with
I960, in Table 26 permits a calculation of 1985 population dimensions,
If it is assumed that the labor force/population ratio continues to
stand at about 38 percent, then a civilian population of some 360,000
is indicated, to which is added a military-derived population of
roughly 10,000 in the Mountain-Home area. An annual growth rate of
1.6 percent per year, approximately that of the last decade, but
somewhat under that forecast for the.United States as a whole, is
indicated.
TABLE 26
SUMMARY OF 1960 AND ILLUSTRATIVE 1985 LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION
Agriculture
Forestry, fisheries, mining
Construction
Manu f actur ing
Forest Products
Food Processing
All other
Trades and Services
Unemployed
TOTAL LABOR FORCE
POPULATION
1960
17.5
.7
7.4
11.3
2.5
5.2
3.6
53.6
5.1
95.8
252.0
1985
12.0
1.5.
11.0
19.0
3.5
9.0
6.5
87.0
5.5
136.0
370.0
-------
B. 1985-2010.
Although an attempt to project population through 2010 by the
same means--production, employment, labor-force/population ratio--
employed to create the population design for 1985 is entirely
feasible, the effort seems more than a little specious. The
changes in productivity that are possible in half a century, under
conditions of expanding technological competence and intensive re-
search efforts, make any attempt to approximate the details of con-
ditions in 2010 seem potentially fruitless. (Consider, for example,
the task of a forecaster of 1910 essaying a similar projection of
I960--without any conception of even the techniques of mass pro-
duction and consumer financing, much less the sheer- mass of prod-
ucts that changed the conditions of life in the next five decades.)
A more general approach will be employed. The U. S. Census
Bureau has projected national population to 2010. It would seem
more fruitful to apportion a part of the forecast population in-
crease to the study area than to attempt a more elaborate rationale,
since planning based on such long-term considerations must, of
necessity, be broad rather than detailed.
Accordingly, the population projection submitted for 2010 is
based on the following assumptions:' . '
(1) National population will grow at a rate of roughly two
percent per year from 1985 through 2010 (U. S. Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census, P-25, Series II.)
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70
(2) Population growth in the Central Snake Basin will continue
to grow at a rate somewhat under that predicted for the Nation as a
whole, for several reasons:
(a) The principal industries of the area, agriculture
and lumbering, indicate a lesser ability to support increased direct
and indirect employment than do production industries as a whole.
(b) There is a demonstrated national tendency for popula-
tion growth to be concentrated in metropolitan centers.
(c) Most parts of the study area have established a pattern
of out-migration, in keeping with their basically rural nature.
(d) As the force of rural social patterns is loosened by
the progress of urbanization, the birth rate—consistently one of the
Nation's highest—should demonstrate a tendency to. align more closely
with national trends.
(e) With population expansion, the ability of development
programs to foster growth of the area (e.g., reclamation programs,
establishment of military bases) will grow proportionately less
effective.
Accordingly, population growth is projected for design
purposes to occur at 90 percent of the national rate — the relation-
ship established by the 1960-1985 forecast—or at an average annual
rate of 1.8 percent. Growth occurring at such a rate would indicate
a population on the order of 585,000 persons in 2010.
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71
C. Population Distribution
An hypothetical distribution of population among subareas--municipal-
ities, counties, river basins—projected to 1985 and 2010 is presented in
Table 27. Assignment of population to specific areas is largely mathematical,
though existence of unusual expansion prospects has been recognized in pro-
jecting population to 1985. It should be emphasized once more that these
projections represent mathematical conventions'based on a Census Bureau
forecast of national population.—
\J See appendix for method applied in distributing population among subareas,
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72
TABLE 27
POPULATION DESIGN: 1960, 1985, 2010
Area
Boise Urbanized Area
Meridian
Kuna
Ada County Rural
Nampa-Caldwell
Parma
Wilder
Middleton
Notus
Canyon County Rural
Mt. Home Urbanized Area
Glens Ferry
Elmore County Rural
TOTAL: Boise River B.
Payette
Erranett
McCall
New Plymouth
Cascade
Fruitland
Horseshoe Bend
Rural
TOTAL: Payette River B.
Homedale
Mar sing
Owyhee County Rural
TOTAL: Owyhee County
Nyssa
. Ontario
Vale
Malheur County Rural
TOTAL: Malheur County
Population. f/£$C-$n
1960 £/
74.0
2.1
.5
16.9
30.2
1.3
.6
.5
.3
24.7 ,
12. 'Cr-
1.4
3.3
167.8
4.5
3.8
1.4
.9
.9
.8
.5
14.0
26.8
1.4
.6
4.4
6.4 '
2.6
5.1
1.5
13.6
22.8
1985-B-'
144.0
3.6
.6
16.9
50.8
1.8
.7
.8
.4
24.7
17.0
1.9
4.0
267.2:-
8.6
7.2
2.0
1.3
1.3
1.2
.7.
14.7
37.6
3.0
1.0
4.4
8.4 '
3.5
7.3
2.0
. 10.6
23.4'
2010 £/
280.0
5.4
.8
16.9
85.4
2.7
.8
. 1.3
.5
24.7
26.5
2.8
4.0
451.8
13.0
10.9
3.0
1.6
1.6
1.5
.8
14.7
47.1
4.5
. 1.3
4.4
10.2'
5.3
11.4
3.0
10.6
30.3"
"a/ Rural population growth for the period '1950-1960 assumed to have occurred
entirely in the Mountain Home area.
b_/ Columns may not add, due to rounding.
-------
TABLE 27 (continued)
73
Area
Baker
Halfway
Huntington
Baker County Rural
TOTAL: Baker County
Weiser
Council
New Meadows
Cambridge
Rural
TOTAL: Weiser River B.
TOTAL: CENTRAL SNAKE B.
i960
10.0
.5
.7
6.1
17.3
4.2
.8
.6
.5
5.2
11.6
252.4
Population
1985
14.6
.6
.8
6.6
22.6
6.1
1.0
.7
.6
4.2
12.6
370.
2010
22.8
.8
1.0
6.6
31.2
9.5
1.3
.9
.8
4.2
16.7
585.0
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74
APPENDIX
Projection of population among subareas rests on twin assumptions--
that employment and urbanization trends in existence during the last two
census periods will persist, and that the labor force to population ratio
will stand at a uniform .38 in subareas. Principal elements of the compu-
tations are presented in Table A.
!• The basic element in preparing these projections was the allocation
of "goods industries' employment. V7itti some modifications, it was assumed that
that the distribution of employment in 1985 would be..similar to that of 1960.
This seemed likely in view of the fact that the production and distribution
factors determining employment must—unless some entirely new source of
basic materials is discovered--depend on'development of existing circum-
stances. Modifications were these:
(a) Agriculture; to give force to the substantial irrigation
opportunities present and tc the critical importance of agriculture in
those counties, agricultural employment was allotted in Elmore, Malheur,
and Owyhee counties on the basis of one man per 700 arable acres: that
being an extension of the trend observable in similar mixed farming areas
of the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascade Range. (cf.: Economic Base
Study & Forecastj Umatilla River Basin.) Remaining agricultural employ-
ment was allotted to other areas on the basis of the 1960 distribution.
(b) Food Processing; Ten percent of the total increase projected for
food processing employment was arbitrarily assigned to Elmore and Owyhee
- Counties to reflect materially increased agricultural outputs anticipated
from extension of irrigation.
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75
Exceptions to this pattern were restricted to the period 1.960-1985,
and are based on unusual circumstances suggested by the development
pattern forecast for goods industries employment. They include:
(1) Rural populations of Malheur, Elmore, and Owyhee counties
were allotted on the basis of agricultural employment. In the case of
Owyhee County, this resulted in a substantial incremental population,
which was assigned to Homedale, the principal settled place.
(2) Because of the higher average rate of growth in goods
industries employment forecast in the Payette River Basin, the higher
growth rates appropriate for communities of a larger size were used to
allot 1985 populations. Thus Payette and Emmett were assumed to grow
at the same rate as Nampa-Caldwell; McCall was assumed to grow at the
rate of cities of 2,500 to 10,000; smaller settled places were assigned
the same growth rates as towns of 1,000 - 2,499.
(3) In the cases of the Payette River Basin and Baker County, where
lumbering is largely concentrated, a residual population increment found
to exist after application of appropriate 1960 - 1985 growth rates to
communities was assigned to rural residents. This does not seem unreasonable,
in view of the nature of residence of persons working at logging or in
sawmills.
(4) In the. case of the Weiser River Basin, application of the chosen
growth rates to communities resulted in a loss in rural population. Since
a decline of about .5 thousand in agricultural employment was projected
for the area, the decline in rural population seems reasonable.
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DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOTMETC AMONG SUBAREAS, 1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
'6.
7.
8.
Sub -Area
Ada County
Canyon County
Elmore County
Owyhee County
Payette R. Basin
Weiser R. Basin
Malheur County
Baker County
TOTAL-'*
Agri-
culture
1.5
3.6
•7.
1.2
1.5
.8
2.2
.8
12.0
Goods
Lumber-
ing
.6
.2
.1
-
1.6
.4
-
.6
3.5
Industries ;
Food
Process-
ing
1.5
3.6
.2
.3
1.4
.5
1.3
.2
9.0
: Employment in Thousands
Other
Mfg.
3.6
1.6
.1
.1
.2
.2
.2
.5
6.5
Con-
struc-
tion
5.5
1.7
.3
.2
1.1
.3
.7
1.2
11.0
Forestry"
and
Mining
.4
.1
.1
-
.4
.1
.1
.3
1.5
TOTAL
13.1
10.8
1.5
1.8
6.2
2.3
4.5
3.6
43.8
Service Industries:
Approx.
1960 Svce
Ratio
707=
55
35
35
45
45
45
50
^'Goods-
Derived1'1
35.2
14.6
2,8
1.0
5.4
2.1
4.0
3.9
69.0
Employ.
r'Growth-
Derived"
10.8
3.2.
.9
.3
1.8
.2
-
.8
18.0
in 1,000k
Total
Svces
46.0
17.8
3.7
1.3
7.2
2.3
4.0
4.7
87.0
Total
Employment
59.1
28.6
5,2
3,1
13,4
4 . 6
8.5
8.3
\130.5
Labor
Force
61.6
29.8
8.7S/
3.2-
14.1
4.8
8.9
8.6
136.0
Population
165.0
79.2
22,9
8.4
37.0
12.6
•23.4
22.6
370.0
a_/ Includes 3.3 in armed forces.
J?/ Columns may not add due to rounding.
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77
II. .Service industry employment was derived—in two steps — from
employment in goods industries:
(a) A basic labor force was computed by assuming for each subarea
a service ratio similar to that of 1960 (i.e., same, to the nearest
5 percent). In this fashion, some 69 thousand service positions were
allotted, 18 'thousand less than the projection for the entire region.
(b) On the assumption that growth of service industries would be
most pronounced in areas of more rapid population growth, remaining
service employment was distributed according to the percentage of the
total increase in goods industries and allotted service industries
employment occurring in each area.
III. Total employment for each subarea was assumed to include 96 percent
of its labor force, and the labor force was assumed to include 38 .percent
of population, permitting a calculation of total population for eight
major subareas.
IV. Further distribution of population rests on the assumption that
growth would continue to occur at established rates. This procedure resulted
in close correlation between the combined populations of subareas and the
projected population totals for 1985 and 2010.!/ With several exceptions,
the allotment of population followed this pattern:
I/ In the case of 2010 population projections, the combination of subarea
population forecasts was less than 1.3 percent apart from the total popula-
tion forecast obtained by applying a total area growth rate derived from
the Census Bureau's national growth rate forecast.
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78
(a) Rural populations were considered to be constant.
(b) The Boise urbanized area, Nampa-Caldwell, cities of 2,500
to 10,000, and cities of 1,000 to 2,499 were assumed to grow at the same
rates as each size category did during the period 1940-1960.
(c) Cities of. less than 1,000 were assumed to grow at the lower
rate established in the period 1950-1960.
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