WORKING PAPER NO. 49
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES, WASHINGTON
ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION
1960 - 2010
November 1964
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland, Oregon 97205
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WORKING PAPER NO. 49
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES, WASHINGTON
ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION
1960 - 2010
DATE; November 1964 DISTRIBUTION;
Prepared by Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by ; General
U. S0 DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
Skagit and Whatcom Counties, Washington
ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION
1960 - 2010
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
A. Present Economic Base and Population ...... 1
. 1. Industry and Employment ...................DO........... 1
2, Population...o....0.0 .....o..... <>. ... 0........... 8
B» Projected Economic Base and Population .... ....<> 8
1. Factors Influencing Future Growth ...,0o .'.......... 8
20 Projected Industrial Production .. ,, ..... .......... 11
a. Food Processing .....0.0.0 11
b. Pulp ......'..... 11
c. Petroleum Refining .......... ........<>.............. 12
d« Aluminum .....o...».».........o«o.... 12
e. Other Industries ..,.., 12
3. Projected Population ................... 12
LIST OF TABLES
-No. and Title
I. Employment, by Industry, North Puget Sound Area 4
II. Percentage Distribution of Employment, by Industry 5
III. Principal Manufacturing Establishments 6
IV. Population, by Urban and Rural Areas ..........<>o 10
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND V7ELFARE
Public Health Service
Region .IX
Division of Vlater Supply and Pollution Control
:.. 570 Pittock Block
Portland, Oregon
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A. Present Economic 3a.se and Popu^lsticn
- Ir^ustrv and ErapJo-v-Tr^ent
Skagit and Whatcos Counties, referred to in this report as
the North Puget Sound Area, are within the Seattle Region, Seattle
providing seme of the specialised commercial and professional services
for the area. The wall-diversified economic base of the North Puget
Sound Area rests upon three.natural resources; (1) rich agricultural
land along the Puget Sound littoral, providing the material for food
processing industries; (2) forests, providing materials for lumber,
plywood and pulp manufacturing; and (3) the Puget Sound itself, which
provides sea food for processing and supports recreation paid boat-build-
ing incustries a A fourth major element in the economic base of the
-srea, petroleum refining, i.s also partly dependent upon the Puget Sound
location, since the crude petroleum for the Anacortes refineries is- partly
supplied by tanker, as well as by'pipeline from Canada,
In the Skagit and lo.atccm two-county area, the total labor
force in April 1950 was about 45,000. of whom about 8,900 ware employed
in manufacturing,, Within the manufacturing group, the iv.du=try with the
largest employment is lumber'and wood products manufacturing, which
includes plywood. Employment in this industry group declined during
the 1950-cO decide by c.bout 30 perce.-t, but it still pi ricai about
a third of all manufacturing jobs= Other types of manufacturing basic
to the araa arc. (in order of employment); food processing'., petroleum
refining, and ~ulp and paper manufacturing,. Data en ev.._:'_o'_~ii~t by
industry are shcv.-.n in Table 1.,
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During the 1950-60 decade, the'number of jobs" in the area
increased by about 4,50CS The decline in lumber and wood products jobs was
just offset by the new employment at the three petroleum refineries
established during the decade. Additional growth in the other manu-
facturing categories added to the diversification of the area's
economy. Two other major changes in employment during the 1950-60 decade
.followed well-established'national trends; agricultural employment declined
sharply, and "service" industries1 enploynsnt increased as a proportion of
total employment. Table 1 shows the substantial increases.that occurred
in employment in education, professional services, retail trade, and
personal services.
The nature of the .economic base of the two-county area is
further ravaalad by Table II, which shows the percentage distribution
of the Icbcr.force, by industry, in that area compared with the distri-
bution in the U., S., as a whole,, Basic industries in which the North Puget .
Sound Area, specialises (ioe^, in which the relative portion of the labor
force substantially exceeds the national average) include the following:
agriculture3 forestry and fisheries, lumbar and wood products, food
processing, pulp and. paper, and petroleum refining. Relatively high
employment in certain service industries (retail trade and personal
services) can be attributed to tourist and recreation activity. As for
the relatively high employment in construction, education and professional
services, it is considered that these result from special local conditions.
ana are not part of the basic erivolovment of the area.
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Table III lists the principal manufacturing establishments in the
two-county area. The list includes all firms with 20 or more employees,
excluding printing and publishing establishments. Of the 69 firms
included, 28 are in food processing; 21 in lumber, plywood,and other
wood products; 3 in pulp and paper; 3 in petroleum refining; and 3
in ship or barge construction. Most of the products of the remaining
11 firms are for the local economy. Table III, therefore, confirms
the dependence of the area's economy upon-agriculture and. fishing and
the processing of their products, timber-based products (including pulp
and paper), and petroleum refining.
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TABLE I
EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA.
(Skagit and What coin Counties)
4
Industry
Agriculture
Forestry and fisheries
Mining
Manufacturing, Total
Lumber, wood prod., furn
Primary -f- fabr. metals
Machinery (incl. elec.)
Other durables
Food -processing
Textiles and apparel
Print, publ.
Chemical and allied
Pulp and paper
Petroleum refin. '
Other nori-dur. , and misc
Construction
Transportation
CommunicatioriS , Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Fin. , Ins . ,R.E. ', Bus. a Rep.
Personal Services'
Education
Professional & related?*/
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Total, Emp. Civil. Lab. Force
Unemployed
Military
TOTAL LABOR FORCE
April
Skagit
- Co.
2,000
161
21
4-,307
.fix- 1,581
36
358
286
743
12
161
36
1252/
82Gb/
149c/
1,360
- - 484
357
430
2,861
Serv. 754
1,142
'922
1,525
633
257
17,269
1,627
- 165
19,061
1960 Employment
What com
Co.'
2,670
300
24
4,566
1,165
112
120
. 615
1,017
73
317
"> L.
779d/
287e/
57c/
1,927
764
821
732
4,138
1,215
1,906
1,902
1,750
861
326
23,902
2,163
223
26,288'
Skagit +
Whatcom
Cos .
4,670
461
45
8,873
2,746
148
478
901
1,760 '
85
478
60
904
1,107
- 206
3,287 '
1,248
1,178
1 , 162
6,999
1,959
3,048
2,824
3,275
1 ,549
'583
41,171
3,790
388
45,349.
April
1950
Empl.
Skagit
+ What-
coirr
Cos.
6 , 9'02
781
255 .
7,376
3,892
124
230
509
1,469
35
358
39
600b_/
-
12 Oh./
2,448 '
1,335
1,052
962
6,026
1,887
2,104
1,582
2,029
1,386
575
36,700
2,608
301
39,609
Change
in
Empl.
1950- .
I960
two
Cos.
-2,232
.- 320
- 210
+1,497
-1,146
+ 24
+ 248
+ 392
+ 291
+ 50
-f- 120
-1- 21
+ 304
+1,107
+ 86
+ 839
87
+ 126
-' -200-
- 973
82
+ 944
+1,242
+1,246
. + 163
+ ' 8
+4,471
+1,182
+ 87
+5,740
a./ Estimate for .Scott Paper Mill at Anacortes.
b/ Estimate for Shell (55,000 barrels/day) and. Texaco (45,000 barrels/day)
refineries at Anacortes, assuming a ratio of 122 barrels/day per employee, which
was the average for the State of Washington in 1960.
£/ Estimat-:j as - a residual after deducting pulp and paper and petroleum refining from
U.S. censu:; figure for "other non-durables"- group.
G_/ Esrima'ce for' Georgia-Pacific (formerly Puget Sound Pulp ar.d Timber) plant az
Beliingham, based upon "covered employment" statistics for Whatccm County.
e_/ Estimate for Mobil refinery at Ferndale (35,000 barrels/day), assuming a ratio
of 122 barrels/day par employee, the State average in 1960.
~L: Ir.cludes private household workers, other personal services and entertainment and
recreation. ' * -.
£/ Includes hospitals, welfare, religious3 non-profit organizations, professional anc
related.
v/.?=-inated.
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TABLE II
PERCENTAGE -DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY
NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA (SKAGIT AND WHATCGM COUNTIES)
Industry
Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
Mining
Manufacturing, Total
Lumber, wood prod. , furn. , fix.
Primary an'd fabricated metals
Machinery (including electric)
Other durables
Food processing.
Textiles and apparel
Printing, publishing
Chemicals and allied
Pulp and paper
Petroleum refining
Other non-durables, and misc.
Construction.
Transportation
Communications, Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade ' .
Fin., Insur. , R. E. , Bus. and Repr. Serv.
Personal Services _/
Education
Professional and related ^/
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Total Employed, Civilian Labor' Force
Unemployed
Military
TOTAL LABOR FORCE
gkae , t
. April
1950
17.4%
2.0
.6
18.6
9.8
. .3
.6
1.3
' 3.7
.1
.9
.1
+ What comb Go's.
April
1960
10.3%
1.0
.1
19.6
6.1
.3
1.1
2.0
3.9
.2
1.1
.1 .
1.5 2.0
- s.1 2.4
.3 ' .4
6.2
3.4
2.7
2.4
15.2
4.8
5.3
4.0
5.1
, 3.5
1.4
92.6
6.6
.8
100.0
7.2
2.8
' 2.6
2.6
15.4
4.3
6.7
6.2
7.2
3.4 .
1.3
90.7
8.4
.9
100.0
U. S.
April
I960
6 . 1%
.1
.9
25.1
1.5
3.6
4.4
4.6
2.6
3.1
1.6
1.2
.7d/
.2d/
1.6d/
5.5
3.9
2.5
3.2
13.7
6.2
6.2
4.S
6.0
4.6
3.7
92.5
5.0
2.5
.100.0
a./ Less than .05 per cent.
b/ Includes private household workers, other personal services, and entertain-
ment and recreation.
c/ Includes hospitals, welfare, religious and non-profit organizations, professional
and related.
d7 Estimated from data for 1960 from 1951 Annual Survey of Manufactures, U. S.
Bepr. of Commerce, Nov. 1962.
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TABLE III
PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS, NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA,-1964
Manufacturing Establishments in Skagit and Whatcom Counties
With 20 or more Employees, by S.I..C. Class ' .
S.I.C.
Class Industry
20 Food Processing
24 Lumber and Wood
Products
City
Anacortes
Anacortes
Anacortes
Anacortes
Anacortes
Anacortes
Bellingham
Bellingham'
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Blaine
Burlington
Burlington
Burlington
Burlington
Ever son
LaConner
LaCormer
Lynden
Lynesn
i>:to Vernon
H-;.. Ver.ion
Mto Vernon
Mt . Yerrton
Mt . Vernon
Anacortes
Anacortes
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Concrete
Concrete
Concrete
Concrete
Firm Name
Farwest Fisheries
Fi sherman ' s Pack ' g
Me Dug I e Wagner Dairy
. McGregor Seafoods
Morgan & Morgan
Sebastian & Stuart
Bellingham Baking
Bellingham Canning
Bornstein Seafoods
Bumble Bee Seafoods
Dahl Fish Co0
Hillview Dairy
What com Co. Dairyrusn
Alaska Packers
Cascade Froz. Foods
Natlo Fruit Canning
N. W0 Darigold
Consol. Dairy
Kale Canning
Moore, R. V.
San Juan Is Cannery
Breyer Ice Cream
Lynden Berrygrowers
Carnation Co^
Consolidated Dairy
Frigid Food Prod.
Libby;McN.5 & Libby
Stokely VanCamp
Anacortes Veneer
Pioneer Shingle
Brooks Lumber
Haley Int ' 1 Corp.
lit, Baker Plywood
Mt. Shukson Veneer
Oeser Cedar Co.
Robinson Plywood
Washington Loggers
Ritchie Shake Mill
Hum Shingla
LeVaque Co.,
Skagit Veneer
Hornbeck ores.
Product
Fish products
Processed fish
Ice Cream
Fish. packing
Oyster packing
Fish products
Baked products
Canned Salmon
Frozen fish
Fish products .
Frozen fish
Ice Cream
Milk., cheese
Canned salmon
Froz. fruit, veg.
Froz. berries
Oyster stev/
Butter, pov7d, milk
Can. beans, beets
Froz. fish petfood
Can. vegs.
I.Cr. ,froz. fruits
Froz. berries
Evap. milk
Dairy Products
Ficz. berries
Froz,, foods
Froz. berries , vegs.
Plywood
Cedar shakes
Wood products
Treated lumber
Plywood
Plywood
Treated' poles
Plywood
Logging
Cedar Shakes
Cedar shakes
Shakes
- Lumber
Logging
No. of
Enrol ov.
100-249
20-249s
20-49
20-99s
20-49
10-99s
50-99
50-99
20-99s
10-249s
50-99
20-49
100-249
50-249s
50-499s
50-99 .
20-49 .
100-250
50-99'
10-49s
20-49
500-25003
10-249s
50-249s
10-49s
4- 49 9s
100-499s
50-999s
500-999
20-49
50-99
20-49
100-250
20-49
20-49
100-249
20-49
20-49
20-49
10-493
20-49
20-49
(Continued)
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TABLE IIl, cont'd
S . I . C .
Class Industry
26 Pulp and -Paper
28 Chemicals
29 Petroleum
32 Stone, -Clay &
Glass Prods.
34 .Fabricated Metal
35 . Machinery
37 Transportation
Equipment
City
Deming
Ever son
Hamilton
Hamilton
Mt . Vernon
Sedro-Woolley
Sedro-Woolley
Anacortes
Bellingham
Bellingham
Anacortes
Anacortes
Anacortes
Ferndale
Bellingham
Bellingham
Bellingham
Concrete
Mt o Yernon
Lynden
Bsllingham
Bellingham
Sumas
Sedro-Woolley
Bellingham-
Bellingham
LaConner
Firm Hame
H.& H. Products-'
Great Western Lumber
Bridge Bros.
Van de Grift Co,
Witco. Co.
Goodyear Nelson
Willis R. & P.
Scott Paper Co.
Ga»Pacific (paper mill)
Ga. Pacific (pulp trail)
N.W. Petrochemical
Shell Oil
Texaco Oil
Mobile Oil
B'ham Bldgs« S.upp.
Lir.d Gravel '
Permanent e Cement
Lone Star Cement
Mt. V. Sand & Gravel
Whatcom Bldg. Supp,.
Weldcraft Steel
Weldit Tank & Steel
Elebaas Co.
Skagit Corp.
B ' h am Sh ipy ar d s
United Boatbuild'g
Skagit Plastics .
Product
Shakes, shingles
Lumber
Lumber
Logging
Wood decor .access.
Lumber
Wood chips , lumber
Pulp
Tissue papers
Pulp
Phenol, cresol.
Petrol. refining
Petrol. refining
Petrol. refining
Concrete prod.
Concrete prod.
Cement
Cement
Concrete prod.. .
Pre-cast concrete
Boats , tanks
Barges , tanks
Tanks , mach ' y .
,-ioists, log. mach 'y
Steel barges
Fibreglass boats
Fibreglass boats
No. ot
Employ.
20-49
50-99
20-49
20-49
20-99s
20-49
100-250
100-250
250-499
500-999
10-49s
500-999
250-499
250-49'9
50-99.
20-49
100-249
100-249
50-99
10-49s
10-493
20-49
20-49
250-499
20-499s
50-99
50-99
;?l S.IcC. refers to the Standard Industrial Classification system of the U.- S. Census
of Manufactures. Firms in the printing and publishing classification have been omitted
from the above list, since they are not related to water supply problems, nor are they
part of the "basic" or "export" employment of the area*
s./ The letter "s" after the employment figures indicates that the range given includes
a seasonal variation,.
Source: Wash. State Dept. of Commerce and Ec0 Development, Directory of Wash. State
Manufactures, July1964o
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8
2. Population
The 41,559 jobs (civilian and military) itemized in Table I
supported, as of April 1, 1960, a population of 121,435 in the two-county
area. Table IV shows the allocation of this population among the cities
and unincorporated parts of the area. For purposes of analysis, the
sparsely inhabited eastern portions of the two counties have been separated
from the more densely-settled urban and suburban portions along the Sound.
The study area's population'increased by about 11,000 during the 1950-60
decade. Nearly all of this increase occurred in the relatively densely-
settled western portion of the two counties, most of it in Skagit County.
Areas of notable growth, were Mt. Vernon, Anacortes and Ferndale, the latter two
showing the effects of the establishment there of petroleum refineries.
B. Projected1 Economic Base and Population ' .
1. Factors Influencing Future Growth
The future growth of the North Puget Sound Area will depend upon
the further development and exploitation of the same basic resources and
locational advantages that are now the support of the economy. Of these,
no increase in the total harvest and processing of seafood is anticipated
during the study period. It is also expected that the total timber harvest
^
will remain at about the present level or decline slightly, although
useage will shift away from sawmills to pulp and plywood. There is a
potential for increased agricultural production and, therefore, for a
greater volume of fruit and vegetable processing and preparation of dairy
products. The petroleum refineries at Anacortes and Ferndale have a total
capacity equal to about 60 percent of present demand for gasoline in the
Pu^et Sound area. Projected plants near Everett would, as assumed in the
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previous Snohomish Basin Study, double this capacity by 1985.
Growth in demand, and the extension of the area supplied to other portions
of the Northwest, beyond the Puget Sound area, would permit further expansion
at Ferndale and Anacortes.
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10
TABLE IV
POPULATION, NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA, BY URBAN AND RURAL AREAS
(Skagit and Whatcom Counties)
.Place or Area
a/
URBAN AND SUBURBAN PORTIONS, TOTAL ~
Skagit County
Communities, Total
Anacortes
Burlington
Hamilton
LaConner
Lyman '
Mt. Vernon
Sedro-Woolley
Suburban
Whatcom County
Communities, Total
Bellingham
Elaine
Ever son
Ferndale
Lynden
Nooksack
Sumas
Suburban
NON-URBAN AND RURAL PORTIONS TOTAL -/
Skagit County
Community
Concrete
Non-Urban or Rural
Whatcom County
Non-Urban or Rural
TOTAL POPULATION - Two- County area -
April. 1,
1950 .
103,884
40,320
19.064
6,919
2,350
294
594
378
5,230
3.299
21,256
63.564
40,271
34,112
1,693
345'
979
2,161
323
658
23,293
5.855
2,953
760
2,193 .
2,902
2,902
109,739
Apr i 1 1 ,
1960
115.328
48 ;41 9
24,317
8,414
2,968
271
638
400
7,921
3.705
24,102
66,909
41.785
34,688
1,735
431
1,442
2,542
318
629
25,1-24
6.107
. 2,931 .
840
2,091
3,176
3,176
121,435
a/ Includes all of Skayit County except Census Divisions 1 and 2, and all of
Whatcom County except Census Divisions 1, 2, and 12; this corresponds to the
area designated as "densely populated" in the North Cascades study.
b/ Includes Skagit County Census Divisions 1 and 2, and Whatcom County Census
Divisions 1 and 2; this corresponds to the area designated as "sparsely popu-
lated" in the North Cascades study.
c/ Whatcom Census Division 12 (Point Roberts) is not included in the study area.
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11
2. Prelected Industrial Production
On the basis of the factors indicated in general terms in the
previous paragraph, the following rough projections, for planning purposes,
are suggested for production in each of the principal industries in the
North Puget Sound area: .
a. Food processing.--Employment in food processing increased
during the 1950-60-decade at an average rate of 1.8 percent per year. In-
cluded within this category was some increase in processing of seafood. Since
no future increase is being projected for seafood processing, the rate of in-
crease during the study period is likely to be somewhat less than 1,8 percent.
For purposes of this study, it is assumed that the volume of output at food
processing plants (other than seafood) in the area will increase at about 1.5
percent per year,- a rate which would mean that 1985 volume- would have in-creased
by about 50 percent as compared with 1960 and that 2010 volume would have about
doubled, as compared with 1960.
b. Pulp.--Even though no increase in total timber harvest in the
area is anticipated, some increase in pulp production can-occur, through diversion
to pulp jiaking of logs now used for Ixiinber, and through the greater utilization.
of residues, wastes and marginal species. A negative factor for the outlook of
pulp production in the area is the fact that, at present, a large share of the
raw material for pulp making comes from British Columbia, in the form of chips.
As the pulp capacity in British Columbia expands in the future, at least part
of this supply may find a market within British Columbia itself. Nevertheless,
t'.-.', diversion of logs away from sawmills and more efficient utilization
should be able to support some expansion of output at the mill at Bellingham.
For purposes of this report, it is assumed that output will increase during
the study period at an average rate of about 1 percent per year, the same
rate assumed in a previous report for growth in output at the mills at Everett.
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12
At this rate, output at Bellingham would increase from the present 470 tons
per day to about 600 tons by 1985 and about 800 tons in 2010. There is a
probability that the present pulp plant at Anacortes will be closed down in
the future, and, for purposes of projecting future water needs and water
' pollution, it is assumed that by 1985 there will be no pulp production at
that site.
c. Petroleum refining.--Growth in demand is expected to justify
expansion of refining capacity at Anacortes and Ferndale. For planning purposes,
it is assumed that capacity at the three refineries in the area will double by
2010.
d. Aluminum.--In 1964, International Aluminum Co. announced plans
to construct an aluminum smelter at Ferndale. Selection of the site was based
upon its deep-water ocean shipping facilities and the availability of low-cost
< . ' .
electricity. Initial capacity will be 20C tons per day. It is essumed that
growth of markets will justify expansion of capacity in the future, and, for
purposes of this study, it is assumed that output will be about 400 tons per
day in 1985 and about 600 tons per day in 2010.
e. Other Industries.--In addition to growth in the basic industries
just described, it is assumed that diversified manufacturing in the area will
increase, and that service industry employment will increase, not only absolutely
but relative to "basic" or "goods" employment.
3. Projected Population.--While the previous section gives a broad
indication of the industrial categories in which growth is likely to occur, no
attempt has been made in this report to project employment in order to derive the
future population that would be supported by the labor force. Rather,
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13
reliance has been placed on a ratio method for determining population, on the
basis of trends in the area's percentage of Washington State population.
The projection of Washington State population used here is that suggested
in May 1964 by the Economics Subcommittee of the Columbia Basin Inter-
Agency Committee. According to that projection, Washington State population
would increase from-2.87 million in 1960 to 4.70 million in 1985 and 7.92 million
in 2010. This would represent a rate of increase for the state of about
2.0 percent per year. The North Puget Sound Study Area has grown at a rate
substantially below that for the state as a whole during recent decades.
The average annual rate of increase for the study area during the 1930-60
period was about 0.9 percent, compared xvith about 2 percent for the state
as a whole. It is expected that the study area will continue to grow at .
a rate less than that for the state, although the disparity between the
two rates will not be as'great in the future, due to the spread northward
of growth from the Seattle Metropolitan Area. For purposes of this report,
it is assumed that the study area's population will increase at a rate of
1.2 percent per year during the 1960-2010 period. At this rate, the
population of the study area would increase from 121 thousand in 1960 to
163 thousand in 19S5 and 218 thousand in 2010.-/
The distribution of this projected population between the "urban-
suburban" and "non-urban-rural" portions of the area shown in Table IV is
expected to continue to be about as it is at present. For planning purposes,
a/ This projection for the Skagit-Whatcom two-county area is the same as that
adopted in the Columbia Basin Inter-Agency Conimittee's North Cascade Mountains
Study, January 31, 1964, Table 1. '
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it is assumed that the population of the area designated "non-urban
and rural" will increase from 6.1 thousand in 1960 to about 7 thousand in
1985 and about 8 thousand in 2010. The remainder of the projected study
area population would be in the "urban and suburban", portion; that is,
about 156 thousand in 1985 and 210 thousand in 2010.
No attempt should be made to forecast the future population
of individual cities in the study area without economic base studies of the
cities concerned. However, for planning purposes, it is suggested that a
reasonable assumption would be that the individual cities in the study area
will .grow at the average rate for the area as a whole; that is, about 1.2
percent per year.
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