WORKING PAPER NO. 53
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
TILLAMOOK COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE
OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: January 21. 1965 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by DW Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. PRESENT POPULATION AND ECONOMIC BASE 1
A. Population 1
B. General Economic Base , 1
C. Lumber and Wood Products 4
_ D. Agriculture and Food Processing ..... — 4
E. Recreation 5
II. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 6
A. Lumber and Wood Products 6
B. Agriculture and Food Processing 7
C. Services <. 8
D. Future Labor Force and Population 8
E. Population Distribution 10
LIST OF TABLES
No. . Page
1 Tillamook County Population, 1950-19605/. • 2
2 Industrial Distribution of Labor Force, Tillamook
County , 3
3 Summary of 1960 and Illustrative 1985 Labor Force
and Population 9
4 Population Design: 1960, 1985, and 2010 11
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TILLAMOOK COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE
OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
I. PRESENT POPULATION AND ECONOMIC BASE
A. Population
Tillamook County had in 1960 a population of 18,955. Population
density is low throughout most of the county with about 75 percent of
the total population residing in small towns and unincorporated areas
along the coast. The Tillamook Bay area, including the City of Tillamook,
Bay City, and Garibaldi, is the focus of economic activity and population
concentration in the county. While there has been in the past decade
an out-migration from most areas of the county, following the salvage
harvest of the Tillamook Burn, the Bay Region has continued to grow;
V.
in 1960 the Bay Region contained about 40 percent of the population.
Table 1 lists the populations of the county and incorporated cities
over 200 people in 1950 and 1960.
B. General Economic Base
The economy of Tillamook County depends heavily on two basic
industries—forest products and dairying. Just how dependent the
county is on these two sources of jobs and incomes can be seen in the
distribution of the labor force as listed in Table 2. Of the 6,705
persons employed in 1960, 27 percent were employed in forest industry,
14 percent were employed in agriculture, and about 4 percent were
employed in food processing, primarily cheese and milk products. Of
the remaining 55 percent of the labor force, over 46 percent were
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TABLE 1
TILLAMOOK COUNTY POPULATION--1950-19602/
POPULATION .
AREA 1950 1960 % Change
Tillamook Co. --Total ,
Garibaldi ,
18 606
761
1,233
1,027
339
270
291
3,685
18 955
996
1,163
771
363
233
237
4,244
1.8
30.8
-5.6
-24.9
7.0
-13.7
-18.5
15.1
a/
— U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
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TABLE 2:
INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE, TILLAMOOK COUNTY
•
INDUSTRIAL GROUP
Forestry & Fisheries . . . . .
Other durable goods ....
Food and kindred prod. . .
Non-durable goods. .<•••.
TOTAL LABOR FORCE ........
NO.
1950
1,215
88
5
412
2,463
2,159
33
202
69
2,934
327
7,444
EMPLOYED
1960
911
91
8
243
2,127
1.792
37
253
55
3,110
215
6,705
% OF 1960
Tillamook
13.5
1.3
0.1
3.7
31.8
26.7
0.5
3.7
0.7
46.4
3.2
• 100.0
LABOR FORCE
Co. U. S.
6.2
0.1
0.9
5.6
25.7
1.5
12.9
2.6
8.7
56.6
4.9
100.0
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employed in the service industries. The recreation-tourist
industry is a third major factor in the county economy.
C. Lumber and Wood Products
Although employment in wood processing dropped between 195*0
and 1960 with the completion of fire-killed timber salvage, in 1962,
for the first time in at least a decade, annual sawmill capacity was
increased by the establishment of a substantial new sawmill, reversing
a long trend of mill closures. Plywood and veneer capacity increased
during the past few years until in 1963 it was 136 percent of the 1952
level. Wood processing is dominated by four large manufacturers in
the TiXlameok lay aseas
Company
Tillamook Veneer Co.
Oregon-Wash. Plywood
Co.
Diamond Lumber Co.
Tillamook Lumber Co.
Product
Plywood
Plywood
Lumber
Lumber
Capacity
85 million sq.ft./yr
90 million sq.ft./yr
250,000 bd. ft. /day
100,000 bd.- ft. /day
Employment
244
260
175
75
About 55 percent .of the actual log production in the county is processed
in the county.
D. Agriculture and Food Processing
In Tillamook County about 90 percent of the agricultural income is from
the dairy industry. Two large dairy associations, both located in the
City of Tillamook, process raw milk into Tillamook cheese, butter, and
other milk products. Most of the 445 small dairy farms are members
of the Association. Although the number of cattle has not increased
over the past decade, milk production has increased over 16 percent while
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the trend in Oregon has been a decline. Production of cheese has
not increased substantially since 1941 but fluid sales have increased
annually to 45 million pounds in 1963, about one-third of the total
volume of milk produced in the county in that year. Most of the fluid
milk is marketed in Portland.
E. Recreation
Services provided for the tourist industry are a major factor
in the.economy of Tillamook County. A series of beaches, bays, and
inlets along the coast provides excellent recreation and has induced
the development of clusters of summer dwellings and weekend cottages.
An excellent sport fishery in the various coastal streams which
culminate in Tillamook Bay is an additional recreation incentive.
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II. ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
Economic projections for 1985 and 2010 must of necessity be based
on assumptions evolving from consideration of the resource base, the
evolution of social attitudes, and the development of technology,
all of which affect output levels, productivity, and employment.
The forecast must, therefore, be interpreted as a model based on an
outline of probabilities and not a detailed prediction of the future.
A. Lumber and Wood Products
The output of forest products in Tillatnook County may be anticipated
to expand. Although salvage logging in the Tillamook Burn is virtually
completed and only a Small amount of old-growth timber remains in the
county, a substantial volume of young growth will support a sizable
timber industry in the future. The following assumptions outline a
projection for the industry's development by 1985.
1. The annual cut will increase at a rate somewhat over that of
the national population growth until the optimum sustained yield of 420
million board feet is reached. With the cutting rate increasing at a 2.2
percent annual rate, the yield in 1985 would be 375 million board feet.
2, Because utilization techniques for young growth have been
established and because there is a sufficient national market for young-
growth products, utilization will be more intense and more varied in
1985, after present facilities have been revamped to utilize smaller
logs more efficiently. Additional productivity per worker is assumed to be
balanced by increased utilization of wood and shorter working hours,
and employment is assumed to increase in direct proportion to the cut.
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3. The advantage of local processing markets both in nearness
to the timber and a downhill haul to the Tillamook Bay area makes it
reasonable to assume that timber-converting facilities will in that
area continue to process at least 55 percent of the logs harvested
in the county. Plywood production should increase substantially, and
the production of hardboard, pressboard, or similar products seems
likely. Although the production of wood pulp and paper in the area
does not seem probable, surrounding operations in the Portland area
and proposed plants in Wauna and Prescott assure a market for a
considerable volume of chips.
B. Agriculture and Food Processing
The dairy industry may be expected to continue to be a major
force in the economy of Tillamook County. Although actual inputs
of pastureland and animals are not expected to increase substantially
and in fact may decrease, increased efficiency in production of raw
milk from the present average of 8,000 pounds per cow per year is
expected to increase up to about 12,000 pounds per cow per year.
Based on this assumption, milk production would grow to an annual
output of about 220 million pounds in 1985 compared with 141 million
pounds produced in 1963. The actual labor force involved in agriculture,
however, is expected to decrease due to the trend toward larger, more
efficiently managed herds.
With an .increase in milk production, the processing of milk
products can be expected to increase in Tillamook County. The market
for Tillamook cheese will increase with the national trend of processing
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8
more milk products and less fluid milk. Assuming that the 66 percent
of the, total milk production utilized in processing milk products will
hold constant, the output of milk products manufacturing in Tillamook
County should double by 1985.
A second food-processing potential is the handling of shellfish.
Efforts are presently being made to increase the production of oysters
in the Tillamook and Netarts Bays.
C. Services
Although service employment in Tillamook County rose much less
rapidly than in the Nation as a whole during the last decade, an
expanding recreation and tourist industry should bring the percentage
of the labor force employed in services closer to the national distri-
bution. The progressive improvement of U. S. Highway 101, the completion
of the Astoria-Megler Bridge, the improvement of the Tillamook Bay Harbor,
and the continued expansion of the quality and variety of tourist
facilities should result in strong increases in the number of tourists
visiting Tillamook County. For the purpose of drawing an economic
design of the area for the period 1960-1985, it is assumed that the
portion of the labor force engaged in trade and services will continue
to increase at an incremental 0.3 percent per year.
D. Future Labor Force and Population
Table 3 summarizes the design pattern of the 1985 economy in
terms of the labor force in contrast with the 1960 employment. If it
is assumed that the labor force/population ratio continues to stand
at about 38 percent, then a population of 34,500 is indicated for
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TABLE 3
SUMMARY OF 1960 AND ILLUSTRATIVE 1985 LABOR FORCE AND POPULATION
INDUSTRIAL GROUP 1960 1985 .
Agriculture 911 730
Forestry, Fisheries, Mining 99 262
Construction , 243 720
Manufacturing 2,127 3,790
Forest Products 1,792 3,100
Food Processing 253 430
Other 92 • 260
Trades and Services 3,110 7,075
Unetnp loyed 215 523
TOTAL LABOR FORCE 6,705 13.100
POPULATION 18,600 34,500
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Tillamook County in 1985. Such an increase indicates a compounded
annual rate of 2.5 percent, somewhat higher than the 2.0 percent
forecast for Oregon and the 1.8 percent forecast forU. S.
Although an attempt to project population through 2010 by the
same means is feasible, uncertainty resulting from changes in productivity,
technology, and social attitude makes such an attempt seem fruitless.
Therefore a more general approach will be employed based on the follow-
ing assumptions:
1. Industrial growth based on resource expansion will end .by
about 1990 with the cutting of forests at the ultimate'sustained yield
l§ve.l. Continuing growth through superior utilisation will be slower.
2. Growth from 1985-2010, based on urban spillover and develop-
ment of services, while slower than 1960-1985, will be sufficient to
provide for the period 1960-2010 a rate of population growth--relative
to the Nation1s--equal to that of 1930-1960, when the area's population
expanded at a rate 22.5 percent higher than the Nation's.
3. On these terms, 2010 population would amount to 51,000, based
on a growth rate of 1.6 percent per year from 1985 to 2010.
E. Population Distribution
Table 4 presents a hypothetical distribution of forecasted
populations in Tillamook County, 1960-2010. Based on the 1940-1950
census trends, which reflected a growing lumber and wood products
economy, it is assumed that the county, outside the Tillamook Bay
area, may be anticipated to grow at about 40 percent of the rate
projected for the county as a whole. The City of Tillamook is expected
to remain the focus of industrial activity and population concentration.
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TABLE 4
POPULATION DESIGN: 1960, 1985, 2010
AREA
City of Tillamook
All Other
1960
. 19 000
3 200
I
10 9001
4,200
1,500
3.400
POPULATION
1985
34,500
5 000
23 300
8 600
1,900
4.300
2010
51,000
5 800
37 900
12,700
2,200
5.100
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and will continue to contain roughly a quarter of the county
population in 1985-2010, following the trend of the last three
decades.
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