WORKING PAPER NO. 23
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
LANE COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: June 13, 1962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by _ EES Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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LANE COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH. 1960-2010
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of This Analysis 1
Definition of Area 1
Period 1
Limitations of This Analysis 2
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
Population 2
Industry 5
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 8
Factors Influencing Future Growth 8
Future Employment and Population 9
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
June, 1962
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LANE COUNTY (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE
AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of Area
The Willamette River Basin divides conveniently into three parts: (1)
the Lower Portion, comprising the Portland Metropolitan Area (Clackamas,
Multnomah, and Washington Counties); (2) the Middle Portion, comprising
Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill'Counties; and (3) the Upper
Portion, comprising Lane County. This report is an analysis of the
economy of Lane County; the other two portions of the Willamette River
Basin will be examined in subsequent reports.
Physically, the western part of Lane County (containing 6 percent of
county population) is outside the Willamette River Basin, draining
directly into the ocean. However, because basic statistics and other
economic studies are available on a county basis, Lane County as a whole
is used here as the unit of study for the economy of the Upper Willamette
Basin.
Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1980.
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Limitations of This Analysis
Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is intended
only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's
growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin
Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis
will be made on an industry-by^industry basis of the growth potential
in the various sub-basins. At that time, this preliminary estimate
will be reviewed, and revised if necessary.
The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particu-
larly in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the
analysis of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water
resource. Other industries have been considered only insofar as they
may have a significant effect on future population. For this reason,
this s,tudy is not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
Population
Total population in Lane County, as of April 1960, was 162,890.
Table I shows' how this population was distributed among the cities of
the county in 1960, and also the comparable figures for 1950. The
Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area" constituted 60 percent of total county
population in 1960, up from 57 percent in 1950. The Eugene-Springfield
"Urban Area" includes not only those two cities, but also the built-up,
but as yet unincorporated, areas surrounding them. The 1950 figure
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for the "Urban Area" is an estimate of the population within the same
boundaries used for the 1960 definition. The Eugene-Springfield
"Urban Area" grew at about 3.3 percent per year during the 1950-60
period, somewhat above the county average. The rest of the incorporated
places, with the exception of Florence, grew at 1 or 2 percent per year,
below the county average. The population of Florence grew more
rapidly. How much of the population growth of the cities was due to
annexations, rather than natural increase or in-migration, is not shown
by census data.
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Table I
POPULATION OF LANE COUNTY AND ITS INCORPORATED AREAS, 1950 and 1960
City or Area
Lane County, Total
1950
125,776
1960
162,890
Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area"*/ 72,000^7 99,361
Eugene, city 35,879 50,977
Springfield, city 10,807 19,616
Unincorporated portion of
"Urban Area" 25,000fe/ 28,768
Coburg, city
Cottage Grove, city
Creswell, city
Florence, city
Junction City, city
Lowell, city
Oakridge, city
"Rural" portions of county".'
693
3,536
662
1,026
1,475
50Q£'
1,562
44,322
754
3,895
760
1,642
1,614
503
1,973
52,388
1960 as 7.
of 1950
130
133
142
182
115
109
110
115
160
109
c/
126
118
a/ The Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area" is defined as the total area
within the boundaries of the following 1960 Census County Divisions:
Bailey Hill, Bethel, Eugene, Goshen, Norkenzie, River Road, Springfield,
ijnd Willakenzie.
b/ The boundaries of the precincts used as census units in 1950 do not
coincide with the boundaries of the 1960 Census County Divisions. The
1950 population in the comparable 1960 areas has been estimated from
USGS maps.
£/ Lowell was not incorporated in 1950 and no accurate figure is
available. Its population at the time of incorporation, in 1954, was
581. However, growth is believed to have occurred between 1950 and
1954; and an estimate for 1950 population is 500.
d/ The ''rural" portion includes small, unincorporated communities and
some suburban development, so that the increase in "rural" population
should not be interpreted to indicate an increase in agricultural
population. In fact, total agricultural employment in the county
declined substantially during the decade, as shown in Table III.
The population of the part of Lane County outside the Willamette Basin,
and the distribution of the Willamette Basin portion among its various
sub-basins, are shown in table II. The Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area,"
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which is defined in footnote "a" of Table I, has not been allocated to
any sub-basin. The rest of the county has been divided among six
sub-basins, on the basis of contour lines on USGS maps. The dividing
lines between sub-basins in the relatively heavily-populated valley areas
along the "main stem" of the Willamette River are not precise. This,
together with the fact that the population in many areas has had to be
estimated from USGS maps, since the 1960 census divisions and 1950
precincts do not coincide with basin boundaries, means that the figures
in table II can only be regarded as rough estimates.
Table II
LANE COUNTY POPULATION, BY SUB-BASIN, 1950 AND 1960
Estimated Distribution
Population, of Population,
thousands per cent
Sub-Basin 1950 1960 1950 1960
Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area" 72.4 99.4 58 61
Coast Fork, Willamette River 13.0 14.5 10 9
Long Tom River 7.9 10.5 6 6
Main stem of Willamette
below "Urban Area11 7.8 11.5 6 7
McKenzie River 6.5 6.5 5 4
Middle Fork, Willamette River 9.6 11.0 8 7
Total in Willamette River Basin 117.2 153.4 93 94
Siuslaw and other coastal 8.6 9.5 7 6
Total, Lane County 125.8 162.9 100 100
Industry
The economy of Lane County is heavily dependent upon lumber and wood
products manufacturing, which accounted for 80 percent of all manu-
facturing employment in 1960. This was down from about 86 percent in
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1950, however, so that some diversification in manufacturing activity
occurred during the 1950-60 decade. During the decade, there was also
a substantial increase in service industry employment, particularly
in education. The University of Oregon is, after lumber and wood
products manufacturing, the second most important factor in the economic
base of the county. Table III shows employment by industry in the
county as of 1950 and 1960.
Table III
EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, LANE COUNTY, 1950 AND 1960
Employment, in thousands
Change, 1960 as %
Industry 1950 1960 1950-60 of 1950 *'
Agriculture 3.6 2.1 -1.5 59
Forestry, Fishing & Mining .4 .5 +0.1 121
Manufacturing, Total 13.1 16.8 +3.7 128
Lumber, wood products 11.4 13.5 +2.1 119
Food and kindred .6 1.2 +0.6 193
Printing and publishing .4 .8 +0.4 190
All other manufacturing .7 1.3 +0.6 187
Construction 3.7 4.0 +0.3 106
R.R. Transportation 1.9 1.7 -0.2 92
Education, public 2.3 4.4 +2.1 195
All other services 19.8 27.0 +7.2 136
Industry not reported .5 1.0 +0.5 184
Employed Civilian Labor Force 45.3 57.5 +12.2 127
a/ Based on unrounded figures
An indication of the type and degree of specialization in Lane County can
be drawn from a comparison of the distribution of employment there with
the distribution in the Portland Region as a whole. This is shown in
Table IV. In addition to Lane County's specialization in lumber and
wood products and in education, as already mentioned, the county's
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employment in railroad transportation is well above the proportion for
the Region. This is due to the location at Eugene of Southern Pacific
shops and other facilities. These three Industries--lumber and wood
products manufacturing, education, and railroad transportation--are the
principal elements in the economic base of Lane County. Most of the
rest of the county's employment represents service-type activity ,
undertaken to supply the needs of the local population.
Table IV
LABOR FORCE DISTRIBUTION, LANE COUNTY AND PORTLAND REGION, APRIL 1960
(Per cent of total labor force)
Lane Portland .
Industry County Region —
Agriculture 3.4 6.6
Forestry, Fishing & Mining .9 .8
Manufacturing, Total 27.4 . 22.8
Lumber, Wood Products 22.0 11.1
Food and kindred 2.0 2.6
Printing and publishing 1.3 1.3
All otbea? manufacturing 2.1 7.8
Construction 6.5 5.9
R.R. Transportation 2.8 1.8
Education, public 7.2 4.9
All other services 44.0 48.0
Industry not reported 1.6 2.4
Employed civilian labor force, Total 93.8 93.2
Unemployed 6.0 6.0
Military J2 J3
Total Labor Force 100.0 100.0
a/ The Portland Region includes all of Oregon plus five
counties in southwestern Washington.
The fact that service industry employment in Lane County is lower than
in the Regional average is largely due to the fact that the Portland
Metropolitan Area performs some service functions, such as in whole-
saling and finance, for the rest of the Region.
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ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
Factors Influencing Future Growth
An estimate of future industrial growth in Lane County was made in 1961
by the Bureau of Municipal Research— and, for purposes of this prelim-
inary study, the findings of the Bureau's report have been accepted as
general guidelines. The Bureau's report anticipates a moderate increase
during the period from 1960 to 1980-85 in the timber resources available
in Lane County, due to a slightly higher allowable cut in National
Forest lands and to intensified forest management. This would permit
>
a 10 or 15 percent increase in lumber and wood products employment by
1980-85, as well as establishment of an additional pulp or paper mill
in Lane County. There is now one mill in the county, a "kraft" mill
of 400 tons-per-day capacity operated at Springfield by the Weyerhaeuser
Company. A study made in 1958 by Sandwell and Company of potential pulp
and paper development in the Upper Willamette Valley—' also anticipates
establishment of one additional mill, of at least 300 tons per day
initial capacity, but with possibilities of expansion later. For purposes
of this preliminary survey, it is assumed here that pulp and paper
capacity in Lane County might be about 800 tons per day by 1980 and
1,500 tons per day by 2010.
I/ Employment Forecast. An Estimate of Lane County Employment for 1980-85,
Bureau of Municipal Research, University of Oregon, 1961.
£/ Upper Willamette Valley Pulp and Paper Development Study, by Sandwell
and Co., for Oregon State Department of Planning and Development,
March 1958.
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In addition to the increase in timber-based production, the Bureau of
Municipal Research's study also forecast the following growth factors
for Lane County from the present to 1980-85: an increase of about
40 percent in agricultural production, despite a continued decline in
agricultural employment; a doubling of enrollment at the University of
Oregon; and beneficial effects from the development of the Port of
Siuslaw, at Florence.
Future Employment and Population
On the basis of the factors noted in the previous paragraph, a
preliminary estimate of future employment and population in Lane County
is shown in Table V. The estimates for 2010 have been made ort the
assumption that basic trends during 1960-80 will continue. The figures
in Table V, particularly those for 2010, should not be regarded as
forecasts, but rather as illustrative estimates of values which the
assumed growth rates and relationships would yield.
Table V
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF LANE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION, 1980 AND 2010
(Estimated employment and population to nearest thousand)
Industry 1960 1980 2010
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, mining 2.6 2.4 2.2
Manufacturing, Total 16.8 2.1.6 31.8
Lumber, wood products,
furniture and fix. 13.5 15.7 17.2
Pulp and paper .3 1.0 1.7
Food and kindred 1.2 1.7 2.9
All other 1.8 3.2 9.0
GOODS, TOTAL 19.4 24.0 33.0
CONSTRUCTION AND ALL SERVICES, TOTAL 38.1 60.0 109.0
TOTAL EMPLOYED CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 57.5 84.0 142.0
Construction + Services as multiple
of Goods 2.0 2.5 3.3
Population as multiple of employment 2.8 2.8 2.8
Population, Lane County 163.0 235.0 400.0
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In Table V, in the first group shown, it has been assumed that agri-
cultural employment would continue to decline, but that this would be
partially offset by increased employment in forestry, fisheries, and
mining. Lumber and wood products employment growth after 1980 would depend
upon further developments of secondary manufacturing of wood products
and possibly some increase in harvest resulting from improved tree farm
management. Pulp and paper employment would include increased
fabrication of pulp into finished paper products. Food and kindred includes
products for the local market and so will tend to increase with population.
In addition, agricultural production is expected to continue to increase,
despite declining farm labor, thus providing further raw materials for
food processing. The growth assumed for "all other manufacturing" is
a continuation of the diversification which occurred during 1950-60, which
is expected to accelerate as local population increases to the point where
it can provide a market for local production of goods formerly imported.
The population estimates for 1980 and 2010, derived in Table V from
estimated future employment, are consistent with rates of growth that
would result from the Series II population projection for Oregon, made
by the U. S. Census Bureau.—' The Series II (migration assumption
no. 2) projection for Oregon is 2,783,000 in 1980 and 4,156,000 in 2000.
If that growth curve is extended, the projected 2010 population is
4,919,000. A preliminary distribution of these state totals among the
JL/ Population Projections and Economic Assumption, Kerr Committee on
National Water Resources, Committee Print No. 5, page 29.
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various sub-regions of the state yields estimates for Lane County
approximately the same as those shown in Table V.
The distribution of estimated future population among the various sub-
basins of Lane County is difficult to predict because basin boundaries in
the densely populated central area around Eugene are not locational
barriers. Plants might locate at one of numerous potential sites, within
a few miles of each other and yet lying in different sub-basins. Estimates
of future population distribution can only be made arbitrarily on the
basis of broad considerations. It is likely that the Eugene-Springfield
"Urban Area" will constitute an increasing proportion of total county
population, continuing the 1950-60 trend. Development of the port of
Siuslaw could cause the population of that sub-basin to increase more
rapidly, halting the declining trend in that sub-basin's share of county
population shown for the 1950-60 decade. The sub-basin identified as
the "Main stem of the Willamette below the Urban Area ' is likely to
maintain its share of county population, because of its central location.
It appears reasonable to assume that the Coast Fork and Middle Fork of
the Willamette and the McKenzie Basins will continue to decline as a
percentage of total county population, as they did during 1950-60. On
the basis of these assumptions, Table VI shows an illustrative
distribution of estimated future Lane County population among the various
sub-basins. Table VI assumes that there will be no abrupt break with
trends of the past decade.
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Table VI
ILLUSTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF LANE COUNTY POPULATION BY SUB-BASIN, 1980 AND 2010
Sub-Basin
Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area"
Coast Fork, Willamette River
Long Tom River
Main stem of Willamette below "Urban Area"
McKenzie River
Middle Fork, Willamette River
Total in Willamette River Basin
Siuslaw and other coastal
Total, Lane County
Population,
thousands
1960 1980 2010
99.4 150 267
14.5 19 28
10.5 14 20
11.5 16 27
6.5 7 10
11.0 14 20
153.4 220 372
9.5 15 28
162.9 235 400
Distribution,
per cent
1960 1980 2010
61
9
6
7
4,
7
94
6
64
8
6
7
3
6
94
6
67
7
5
7
2
5
93
7
100 100 100
For design purposes, hypothetical figures for future population of the
cities in Lane County can be extrapolated, though it should be emphasized
that such estimates are even more arbitrary than estimates for sub-basins.
The economies of these cities are so small and often so specialized that
the location of one new plant or the loss of one existing plant could
have a pronounced effect on their population. The figures for future
city populations, shown in Table VII, are based largely on extrapolations
of the past trend in average annual rate of growth and the past trend in
each city's share of the population of the sub-basin in which it is
located. That is, the figures for cities, in Table VII, are derived
partially from the estimates for sub-basins shown in Table VI. In addition
to the extrapolation of these trends, certain general considerations
influenced the estimates for future city populations. Among these.
considerations are the fallowing:
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All of the sub-basins, except the Siuslaw and coastal area,
radiate out from the Eugene-Springfield "Urban Area," so that a consid-
erable part of the unincorporated population in each of these sub-basins
is close-in suburban development. This is likely to continue to be true
in the future, and explains the relatively large unincorporated
population in the sub-basins.
It is assumed that Coburg, a satellite suburb of Eugene, will
increase more rapidly in the future than it has in the past, as the
Urban Area grows.
Cities located along the main lines of north-south communication,
particularly Cottage Grove and to a lesser extent Junction City, will
derive some stimulus from that fact.
Some expansion of lumber and wood products employment in the county
is expected, and part of this can locate at Oakridge.
It is assumed that the smaller cities, Lowell and Creswell, will
grow about in proportion with their sub-basins.
Florence is expected to grow as a result of development of the port
of Siuslaw and seaside recreation.
Table VII
ILLUSTRATIVE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION OF CITIES IN LANE COUNTY, 1980-2010
(Population to nearest thousand)
City 1960 1980 2010
Eugene-Springfield Urban Area 99.4 150 267
Coburg .8 1.3 2.4
Cottage Grove 3.9 5.5 9.1
Creswell .8 1.1 1.7
Florence 1.6 3.4 7.8
Junction City 1.6 2.2 3.8
Lowell .5 .7 1.0
Oakridge 2.0 2.8 4.0
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