United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office Of Air Quality
Planning And Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
EPA-452/R-00-008
December 2000
FINAL REPORT
Air
Economic Impact Analysis of
Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
NESHAP
Final Report
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Economic Impact Analysis of
Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
NESHAP
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Innovative Strategies and Economics Group, MD-15
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared Under Contract By:
Research Triangle Institute
Center for Economics Research
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
December 2000
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This report has been reviewed by the Emission Standards Division of the Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and approved for publication. Mention
of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
Copies of this report are available through the Library Services (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, or from the National Technical Information Services 5285 Port
Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161.
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CONTENTS
Section Page
1 Introduction 1-1
1.1 Agency Requirements for an EIA 1-1
1.2 Overview of Iron and Steel and Coke Industries 1-2
1.3 Summary of EIA Results 1-2
1.4 Organization of this Report 1-4
2 Industry Profile 2-1
2.1 Production Overview 2-1
2.1.1 Iron Making 2-2
2.1.2 Steel Making 2-5
2.1.3 Types of Steel Mill Products 2-8
2.1.4 Emissions 2-11
2.2 Industry Organization 2-11
2.2.1 Iron and Steel Making Facilities 2-11
2.2.2 Companies 2-18
2.2.3 Industry Trends 2-21
2.3 Uses and Consumers 2-22
2.4 Historic Market Data 2-24
2.4.1 Steel Mill Products 2-24
2.4.2 Market Prices 2-29
2.5 Future Projections 2-30
2.5.1 Iron Making 2-30
2.5.2 Steel Making and Casting 2-30
2.5.3 Steel Mill Products 2-33
2.5.4 End User Markets 2-33
in
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3 Engineering Cost Analysis 3-1
3.1 Overview of Emissions from Integrated Iron and Steel Plants 3-1
3.2 Approach for Estimating Compliance Costs 3-2
3.3 BOPF Primary Control Systems 3-2
3.4 Secondary Capture and Control Systems for Fugitive
Emissions 3-4
3.5 Bag Leak Detection Systems 3-4
3.6 Total Nationwide Costs 3-5
4 Economic Impact Analysis 4-1
4.1 EIA Data Inputs 4-1
4.1.1 Producer Characterization 4-1
4.1.2 Market Characterization 4-2
4.1.3 Regulatory Control Costs 4-3
4.2 EIA Methodology Summary 4-4
4.3 Economic Impact Results 4-7
4.3.1 Market-Level Impacts 4-7
4.3.2 Industry-Level Impacts 4-8
4.3.2.1 Changes in Profitability 4-9
4.3.2.2 Facility Closures 4-11
4.3.2.3 Changes in Employment 4-11
4.3.3 Social Cost 4-13
5 Small Business Impacts 5-1
References R-l
Appendixes
A Economic Impact Analysis Methodology A-l
B Development of Coke Battery Cost Functions B-l
C Econometric Estimation of the Demand Elasticity for Steel Mill
Products C-l
iv
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D Joint Economic Impact Analysis of the Integrated Iron and Steel
MACT Standard with the Coke MACT Standard D-l
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
1-1 Summary of Interactions Between Producers and Commodities in the
Iron and Steel Industry 1-3
2-1 Overview of the Integrated Steel Making Process 2-2
2-2 Iron Making Process: Blast Furnace 2-4
2-3 Steel Making Processes: Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc
Furnace 2-6
2-4 Steel Casting Processes: Ingot Casting and Continuous Casting 2-8
2-5 U.S. Raw Steel Production Shares by Type of Steel: 1997 2-9
2-6 Steel Finishing Processes by Mill Type 2-10
2-7 Location of U.S. Integrated Iron and Steel Manufacturing Plants: 1997 ....2-12
2-8 1997 U.S. Steel Shipments by Market Classification 2-23
4-1 Market Linkages Modeled in the Economic Impact Analysis 4-3
4-2 Market Equilibrium without and with Regulation 4-6
VI
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LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
2-1 Summary Data for Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities: 1997 (short
tons per year) 2-13
2-2 Summary of Steel Making Operations at Integrated Iron and Steel
Facilities: 1997 (short tons per year) 2-14
2-3 U.S. Steel Making Capacity and Utilization: 1981-1997 2-15
2-4 Summary of Finishing Mills at Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities:
1997 (short tons per year) 2-16
2-5 Integrated Iron and Steel Industry Summary Data: 1997 2-19
2-6 Summary of Integrated Iron and Steel Operations at U.S. Parent
Companies: 1997 (short tons per year) 2-20
2-7 Sales, Operating Income, and Profit Rate for Integrated Producers and
Mini-Mills: 1996 2-21
2-8 Comparison of Steel and Substitutes by Cost, Strength, and
Availability: 1997 2-25
2-9 Net Shipments of Steel Mill Products by Market Classification:
1981-1997 (103 short tons) 2-26
2-10 U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption of Steel
Mill Products: 1981-1997 (103 short tons) 2-27
2-11 Foreign Trade Concentration Ratios for U.S. Steel Mill Products:
1981-1997 2-28
2-12 U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption of Steel
Mill Products: 1997 (tons) 2-29
2-13 Market Prices and Net Shipments of Steel Mill Products by Steel
Type: 1997 2-31
2-14 Projected U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption
of Steel Mill Products: 1994, 1999, and 2004 (103 short tons) 2-32
2-15 Projected U.S. Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill Product by Type:
1994, 1999, and 2004 (103 short tons) 2-32
2-16 Apparent Consumption of Steel By-Products: 1994-2004 (103
net tons) 2-33
2-17 Apparent Steel Consumption for Selected End Users: 1994-2004
(103 net tons) 2-34
vn
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2-18 Steel Imports by End-Use Markets: 1994-2004 (103 net tons) 2-36
2-19 Demand Forecast for Raw Materials in Motor Vehicles: 1992,1996,
and 2000 (metric tons) 2-37
3-1 Nationwide Cost Estimates 3-5
4-1 Baseline Characterization of U.S. Iron and Steel Markets: 1997 4-4
4-2 Supply and Demand Elasticities Used in Analysis 4-8
4-3 Market-Level Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
MACT: 1997 4-9
4-4 National-Level Industry Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and
Steel MACT: 1997 4-10
4-5 Distribution Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel MACT
Across Directly Affected Producers: 1997 4-12
4-6 Distribution of the Social Costs of the Proposed Integrated Iron and
Steel MACT: 1997 4-14
Vlll
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a maximum
achievable control technology (MACT) standard to reduce hazardous air pollutants (HAPs)
from the integrated iron and steel manufacturing source category. To support this
rulemaking, EPA's Innovative Strategies and Economics Group (ISEG) has conducted an
economic impact analysis (EIA) to assess the potential costs of the rule. This report
documents the methods and results of this EIA. In 1997, the United States produced a total
of 105.9 million short tons of steel mill products. The construction and automotive industries
are two of the largest consumers of these products, consuming approximately 30 percent of
the net shipments in that year. The processes covered by this proposed regulation include
sinter production, iron production in blast furnaces, and basic oxygen process furnace
(BOPF) shops. There are a variety of metal and organic HAPs contained in the particulate
matter emitted from these iron and steel manufacturing processes. Metal HAPs include
primarily manganese and lead, while volatile organics include benzene, carbon disulfide,
toluene, and xylene.
1.1 Agency Requirements for an EIA
Congress and the Executive Office have imposed statutory and administrative
requirements for conducting economic analyses to accompany regulatory actions. Section
317 of the CAA specifically requires estimation of the cost and economic impacts for specific
regulations and standards proposed under the authority of the Act.1 EPA's Economic
Analysis Resource Document provides detailed guidelines and expectations for economic
'In addition, Executive Order (EO) 12866 requires a more comprehensive analysis of benefits and costs for
proposed significant regulatory actions. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance under EO
12866 stipulates that a full benefit-cost analysis is required only when the regulatory action has an annual
effect on the economy of $100 million or more. Other statutory and administrative requirements include
examination of the composition and distribution of benefits and costs. For example, the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (RFA), as amended by the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement and Fairness Act of 1996
(SBREFA), requires EPA to consider the economic impacts of regulatory actions on small entities.
1-1
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analyses that support MACT rulemaking (EPA, 1999). In the case of the integrated iron and
steel MACT, these requirements are fulfilled by examining the following:
• facility-level impacts (e.g., changes in output rates, profitability, and facility
closures),
• market-level impacts (e.g., changes in market prices, domestic production, and
imports),
• industry-level impacts (e.g., changes in revenue, costs, and employment), and
• societal-level impacts (e.g., estimates of the consumer burden as a result of higher
prices and reduced consumption levels and changes in domestic and foreign
profitability).
1.2 Overview of Iron and Steel and Coke Industries
Integrated iron and steel mills are co-located with captive coke plants providing
furnace coke for its blast furnaces, while merchant coke plants supply the remaining demand
for furnace coke at integrated iron and steel mills. These integrated mills compete with
nonintegrated mills (i.e., mini-mills) and foreign imports in the markets for these steel
products typically consumed by the automotive, construction, and other durable goods
producers. Figure 1-1 summarizes the interactions between source categories and markets
within the broader iron and steel industry.
The EIA models the specific links between these models. The analysis to support the
integrated iron and steel EIA focuses on two specific markets:
• steel mill products and
• furnace coke.
Changes in price and quantity in these markets are used to estimate the facility, market,
industry, and social impacts of the integrated iron and steel regulation.
1.3 Summary of EIA Results
The proposed MACT will cover the integrated iron and steel manufacturing source
category. The processes covered by the proposed regulation include sinter production; iron
production in blast furnaces; and basic oxygen process furnace (BOPF) shops, which includes
hot metal transfer, slag skimming, steelmaking in BOPFs, and ladle metallurgy. Capital,
operating and maintenance, and monitoring costs were estimated for each plant.
1-2
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The increased production costs will lead to economic impacts in the form of small
increases in market prices and decreases in domestic production. The impacts of these price
increases will be borne largely by integrated producers of steel mill products as well as
consumers of steel mill products. Nonintegrated steel mills will earn higher profits. Key
results of the EIA for the integrated iron and steel MACT are as follows:
• Engineering Costs: The engineering analysis estimates annual costs for existing
sources of $5.9 million.
• Price and Quantity Impacts: The EIA model predicts the following:
— The market price for steel mill products is projected to only slightly increase
by less than 0.01 percent ($0.01/short ton), and domestic steel mill production
is projected to decrease by less than 0.01 percent (2.3 thousand tons/year).
— The market price for furnace coke is projected to remain unchanged, and
domestic furnace coke production is projected to decrease by less than 0.1
percent (100 tons/year).
• Plant Closures: No integrated iron and steel mills or coke batteries are projected
to close as a result of the rule.
• Small Businesses: The Agency has determined that no small businesses in this
source category would be subject to this proposed rule.
• Social Costs: The annual social costs are projected to be $5.9 million.
— The consumer burden as a result of higher prices and reduced consumption
levels is $1.7 million annually.
— The aggregate producer profits are expected to decrease by $4.2 million.
/ The profit losses are $5.2 million annually for domestic integrated iron and
steel producers.
/ Unaffected domestic producers and foreign producer profits increase by
$0.9 million due to higher prices and level of impacts.
1.4 Organization of this Report
The remainder of this report supports and details the methodology and the results of
the EIA of the integrated iron and steel MACT.
• Section 2 presents a profile of the integrated iron and steel industry.
1-4
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Section 3 describes the regulatory controls and presents engineering cost estimates
for the regulation.
Section 4 reports market-, industry-, and societal-level impacts.
Section 5 contains the small business screening analysis.
Appendix A describes the EIA methodology.
Appendix B describes the development of the coke battery cost functions.
Appendix C includes the econometric estimation of the demand elasticity for steel
mill products.
Appendix D reports the results of the joint economic impacts of the iron and steel
and coke MACTs.
1-5
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SECTION 2
INDUSTRY PROFILE
Iron is produced from iron ore, and steel is produced by progressively removing
impurities from iron ore or ferrous scrap. Iron and steel manufacture is included under
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code 3312—Blast Furnaces and Steel Mills, which
also includes the production of coke, an input to the iron making process. In 1997, the
United States produced 105.9 million short tons of steel. Steel is primarily used as a major
input to consumer products such as automobiles and appliances. Therefore, the demand for
steel is a derived demand that depends on a diverse base of consumer products.
This section provides a summary profile of the integrated iron and steel industry in
the United States. Technical and economic aspects of the industry are reviewed to provide
background for the economic impact analysis. Section 2.1 provides an overview of the
production processes and the resulting types of steel mill products. Section 2.2 summarizes
the organization of the U.S. integrated iron and steel industry, including a description of the
U.S. integrated iron and steel mills, the companies that own these facilities, and the markets
for steel mill products. Section 2.3 describes uses and consumers. Section 2.4 presents
historical and projected data on the iron and steel industry, including U.S. production,
consumption, and foreign trade. Finally, Section 2.5 discusses future projections.
2.1 Production Overview
Figure 2-1 illustrates the four-step production process for the manufacture of steel
products at integrated iron and steel mills. The first step is iron making. Primary inputs to
the iron making process are iron ore or other sources of iron, coke or coal, and flux. Pig iron
is the primary output of iron making and the primary input to the next step in the process,
steel making. Metal scrap and flux are also used in steel making. The steel making process
produces molten steel that is shaped into solid forms at forming mills. Finishing mills then
shape, harden, and treat the semi-finished steel to yield its final marketable condition.
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Iron Ore Coke Flux
1 1 i
Iron Making
Scrap
Pig Iron
Steel Making
Flux
Molten Steel
Forming
Semi-Finished Steel
Finishing
Finished Steel Products
Figure 2-1. Overview of the Integrated Steel Making Process
2.1.1 Iron Making
Blast furnaces are the primary site of iron making at integrated facilities where iron
ore is converted into more pure and uniform iron. Blast furnaces are tall steel vessels lined
with heat-resistant brick (AISI, 1989a). They range in size from 23 to 45 feet in diameter and
are over 100 feet tall (Hogan and Kolble, 1996; Lankford et al., 1985). Conveyor systems of
carts and ladles carry inputs and outputs to and from the blast furnace.
Iron ore, coke, and flux are the primary inputs to the iron making process. Iron ore,
which is typically 50 to 70 percent iron, is the primary source of iron for integrated iron and
2-2
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steel mills. Pellets are the primary source of iron ore used in iron making at integrated steel
mills. Iron can also be captured by sintering from fine grains, pollution control dust, and
sludge. Sintering ignites these materials and fuses them into cakes that are 52 to 60 percent
iron. Other iron sources are scrap metal, mill scale, and steel making slag that is 20 to
25 percent iron (Lankford et al., 1985).
Coke is made in ovens that heat metallurgical coal to drive off gases, oil, and tar,
which can be collected by a coke by-product plant to use for other purposes or to sell. Coke
may be generated by an integrated iron and steel facility or purchased from a merchant coke
producer. Iron makers are exploring techniques that directly use coal to make iron, thereby
eliminating the need to first make coke. Coke production is responsible for 72 percent of the
particulates released in the manufacture of steel products (Prabhu and Cilione, 1992).
Flux is a general name for any material used in the iron or steel making process that is
used to collect impurities from molten metal. The most widely used flux is lime. Limestone
is also directly used as a flux, but it reacts more slowly than lime (Fenton, 1996).
Figure 2-2 shows the iron making process at blast furnaces. Once the blast furnace is
fired up, it runs continuously until the lining is worn away. Coke, iron materials, and flux are
charged into the top of the furnace. Hot air is forced into the furnace from the bottom. The
hot air ignites the coke, which provides the fuel to melt the iron. As the iron ore melts,
chemical reactions occur. Coke releases carbon as it burns, which combines with the iron.
Carbon bonds with oxygen in the iron ore to reduce the iron oxide to pure iron. The bonded
carbon and oxygen leave the molten iron in the form of carbon monoxide, which is the blast
furnace gas. Some of the carbon remains in the iron. Carbon is an important component of
iron and steel, because it allows iron and steel to harden when they are cooled rapidly.
Flux combines with the impurities in molten iron to form slag. Slag separates from
the molten iron and rises to the surface. A tap removes the slag from the iron while molten
iron, called hot metal, is removed from a different tap at 2,800 to 3,000°F. Producing a
metric ton of iron from a blast furnace requires 1.7 metric tons of iron ore, 450 to
650 kilograms of coke, 250 kilograms of flux, and 1.6 to 2.0 metric tons of air (Lankford et
al., 1985).
2-3
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Coke
Coal or
natural gas
Dust
Figure 2-2. Iron Making Process: Blast Furnace
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Compliance. 1995. EPA Office of Compliance
Sector Notebook Project: Profile of the Iron and Steel Industry. Washington, DC: Environmental
Protection Agency.
Hot metal may be transferred directly to steel making furnaces. Hot metal that has
cooled and solidified is called pig iron. Pig iron is at least 90 percent iron and 3 to 5 percent
carbon (Lankford et al., 1985). Pig iron is typically used in steel making furnaces, but it also
may be cast for sale as merchant pig iron. Merchant pig iron may be used by foundries or
electric arc furnace (EAF) facilities that do not have iron making capabilities. In 1997, blast
furnaces in the United States produced 54.7 million short tons of iron, of which 1.2 percent
was sold for use outside of integrated iron and steel mills. Six thousand tons of pig iron were
used for purposes other than steel making (AISI, 1998).
2-4
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2.1.2 Steel Making
Steel making is carried out in basic oxygen furnaces or in EAFs, while iron making is
only carried out in blast furnaces. Basic oxygen furnaces are the standard steel making
furnace used at integrated mills, although two facilities use EAFs. EAFs are the standard
furnace at mini-mills since they use scrap metal efficiently on a small scale. Open hearth
furnaces were used to produce steel prior to 1991 but have not been used in the United States
since that time.
Hot metal or pig iron is the primary input to the steel making process at integrated
mills. Hot metal accounts for up to 80 percent of the iron charged into a steel making furnace
(AISI, 1989a). Scrap metal is also used, which either comes as wastes from other mill
activities or is purchased on the scrap metal market. Scrap metal must be carefully sorted to
control the alloy content of the steel. Direct-reduced iron (DRI) may also be used to increase
iron content, particularly in EAFs that use mainly scrap metal for the iron source. DRI is iron
that has been formed from iron ore by a chemical process, directly removing oxygen atoms
from the iron oxide molecules.
Predictions for iron sources for basic oxygen furnaces in the year 2004 indicate an
expected decrease in the use of pig iron and expected increases in the use of scrap and DRI.
Shares for basic oxygen furnaces in 2004 are predicted to be 67 percent pig iron, 27 percent
scrap, and 6 percent DRI. In contrast, shares for EAFs in 2004 are predicted to be 2 percent
pig iron, 88 percent scrap, and 10 percent DRI (Dun & Bradstreet, 1998).
Figure 2-3 shows the steel making process at basic oxygen furnaces and EAFs. At
basic oxygen furnaces, hot metal and other iron sources are charged into the furnace. An
oxygen lance is lowered into the furnace to inject high purity oxygen—99.5 to 99.8 percent
pure—to minimize the introduction of contaminants. Some basic oxygen furnaces insert the
oxygen from below. Energy for the melting of scrap and cooled pig iron comes from the
oxidation of silicon, carbon, manganese, and phosphorous. Flux is added to collect the
oxides produced in the form of slag and to reduce the levels of sulfur and phosphorous in the
metal. Approximately 365 kilograms of lime are needed to produce a metric ton of steel
(AISI, 1989a). The basic oxygen process can produce approximately 300 tons in 45 minutes
(AISI, 1989a). When the process is complete, the furnace is tipped and the molten steel
flows out of a tap into a ladle.
2-5
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Air >
Scrap >•
Flux >
Iron >•
Basic Oxygen Furnace
Dust/ SlaŁ
Sludge
Molten
Steel
Air
Scrap
Electricity
Dust/
Sludge
Figure 2-3. Steel Making Processes: Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Compliance. 1995. EPA Office of Compliance
Sector Notebook Project: Profile of the Iron and Steel Industry. Washington, DC: Environmental
Protection Agency.
2-6
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EAFs have removable roofs so that they can be charged from the top. EAFs primarily
use scrap metal for the iron source, but alloys may also be added before the melt. In EAFs,
electric arcs are formed between two or three carbon electrodes. The EAFs require a power
source to supply the charge necessary to generate the electric arc and typically use electricity
purchased from an outside source. If electrodes are aligned so that the current passes above
the metal, the metal is heated by radiation from the arc. If the electrodes are aligned so that
the current passes through the metal, heat is generated by the resistance of the metal in
addition to the arc radiation. Flux is blown or deposited on top of the metal after it has
melted. Impurities are oxidized by the air in the furnace and oxygen injections. The melted
steel should have a carbon content of 0.15 to 0.25 percent greater than desired because the
excess will escape as carbon monoxide as the steel boils. The boiling action stirs the steel to
give it a uniform composition. When complete, the furnace is tilted so that the molten steel
can be drained through a tap. The slag may be removed from a separate tap. The EAF
process takes 2 to 3 hours to complete (EPA, 1995).
Steel often undergoes additional, referred to as secondary, metallurgical processes
after it is removed from the steel making furnace. Secondary steel making takes place in
vessels, smaller furnaces, or the ladle. These sites do not have to be as strong as the primary
refining furnaces because they are not required to contain the powerful primary processes.
Secondary steel making can have many purposes, such as removal of oxygen, sulfur,
hydrogen, and other gases by exposing the steel to a low-pressure environment; removal of
carbon monoxide through the use of deoxidizers such as aluminum, titanium, and silicon; and
changing of the composition of unremovable substances such as oxides to further improve
mechanical properties.
Molten steel transferred directly from the steel making furnace is the primary input to
the forming process. Forming must be done quickly before the molten steel begins to cool
and solidify. Two generalized methods are used to shape the molten steel into a solid form
for use at finishing mills: ingot casting and continuous casting machines (Figure 2-4). Ingot
casting is the traditional method of forming molten steel in which the metal is poured into
ingot molds and allowed to cool and solidify. However, continuous casting currently
accounts for approximately 95 percent of forming operations (AISI, 1998). Continuous
casting, in which the steel is cast directly into a moving mold on a machine, reduces loss of
steel in processing up to 12 percent over ingot pouring (USGS, 1998). Continuous casting is
projected to account for nearly 100 percent of steel mill casting by the year 2004 (Dun &
Bradstreet, 1998).
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Molten Steel
V
->• Process Water
-> Scale
Ingot Casting
|o o o|
Continuous Casting
Semi-Finished Steel
Figure 2-4. Steel Casting Processes: Ingot Casting and Continuous Casting
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Compliance. 1995. EPA Office of Compliance
Sector Notebook Project: Profile of the Iron and Steel Industry. Washington, DC: Environmental
Protection Agency.
2.1.3 Types of Steel Mill Products
As shown in Figure 2-5, carbon steel is the most common type of steel by
metallurgical content. By definition, for a metal to be steel it must contain carbon in addition
to iron. Increases in carbon content increase the hardness, tensile strength, and yield strength
of steel but can also make steel susceptible to cracking. Alloy steel is the general name for
the wide variety of steels that manipulate alloy content for a specific group of attributes.
Alloy steel does not have strict alloy limits but does have desirable ranges. Some of the
common alloy materials are manganese, phosphorous, and copper. Stainless steel must have
a specific mix of at least 10 percent chromium and 50 percent iron content (AISI, 1989b).
2-8
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U.S. Raw Steel Production
108.6 million short tons
Stainless
2.2
Figure 2-5. U.S. Raw Steel Production Shares by Type of Steel: 1997
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
Semi-finished steel forms from the casting process are passed through processing
lines at finishing mills to give the steel its final shape (Figure 2-6). At rolling mills, steel
slabs are flattened or rolled into pipes. At hot strip mills, slabs pass between rollers until they
have reached the desired thickness. The slabs may then be cold rolled in cold reduction
mills. Cold reduction, which applies greater pressure than the hot rolling process, improves
mechanical properties, machinability, and size accuracy, and produces thinner gauges than
possible with hot rolling alone. Cold reduction is often used to produce wires, tubes, sheet
and strip steel products. In 1997, the United States shipped 19 million tons of hot rolled
sheet and strip and over 14 million tons of cold rolled sheet and strip (AISI, 1998).
After the shape and surface quality of steel have been refined at finishing mills, the
metal often undergoes further processes for cleansing. Pressurized air or water and cleaning
agents are the first step in cleansing. Acid baths during the pickling process remove rust,
scales from processing, and other materials. The cleaning and pickling processes help
coatings to adhere to the steel. Metallic coatings are frequently applied to sheet and strip to
inhibit corrosion and oxidation, and to improve visual appearance. The most common
coating is galvanizing, which is a zinc coating. In 1997, the United States had net shipments
of over 16 million tons of galvanized sheet and strip (AISI, 1998). Other coatings include
2-9
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SOME PRODUCT FORMSJNOT TO SAME SCALE)
SEMI-
FINISHED-
STEEL
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Figure 2-6. Steel Finishing Processes by Mill Type
Source: Lankford, William T., Norman L. Samways, Robert F. Craven, and Harold E. McGannon, eds. 1985.
The Making, Shaping and Treating of Steel. Pittsburgh: United States Steel, Herbick & Held.
aluminum, tin, chromium, and lead, which together accounted for 2 million tons of U.S. net
shipments in 1997 (AISI, 1998). Semi-finished products are also finished into pipes and
tubes. Pipes are produced by piercing a rod of steel to create a pipe with no seam or by
rolling and welding sheet metal.
Slag is generated by iron and steel making. Slag contains the impurities of the molten
metal, but it can be sintered to capture the iron content. Slag can also be sold for use by the
cement industry, for railroad ballast, and by the construction industry, although steel making
slag is not used for these purposes as often as iron making slag (EPA, 1995).
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2.1.4 Emissions
Emissions are generated from numerous points throughout the integrated steel mill
production processes. Blast furnace gas, such as carbon monoxide, is often used to heat the
air incoming to the blast furnace and can also be used as fuel if it is first cleaned. The iron
making process often generates other gases from impurities such as sulfur dioxide or
hydrogen sulfide.
Particulates may be included in the blast furnace gas. The steel making process also
generates gases that typically contain metallic dust such as iron particulates, zinc, and lead.
In addition, when the steel is poured, fumes are released that contain iron oxide and graphite.
Air filters and wet scrubbers of emissions generate dust and sludge.
About a thousand gallons of water are used per ton of steel to cleanse emissions
(EPA, 1995). The water used to cool and rinse the steel picks up lubricants, cleansers, mill
scale, and acids. A sludge may form that contains metals such as cadmium, chromium, and
lead.
2.2 Industry Organization
This section provides an overview of the U.S. integrated iron and steel mill industry,
including the facilities, the companies that own them, and the markets in which they compete.
2.2.1 Iron and Steel Making Facilities
Figure 2-7 identifies the location of U.S. integrated iron and steel facilities. As of
1997, there were 20 operating integrated steel facilities. Five facilities are located in Ohio,
four are in Indiana, two each are in Illinois, Alabama, and Michigan, and one each is in
Kentucky, Maryland, Utah, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Table 2-1 lists the facilities and their operations. All facilities have iron making, steel
making, and casting operations. Thirteen of the facilities have their own coke making
operations and 17 have finishing mills. Wherever two plants were considered as one facility,
it has been noted.
Table 2-1 also shows all blast furnaces operating in 1997. Forty-one blast furnaces
are shown, with an average capacity of 1.4 million tons per year. Individual facility capacity
ranges from 1 million tons per year to 4.96 million tons per year.
2-11
-------
Figure 2-7. Location of U.S. Integrated Iron and Steel Manufacturing Plants: 1997
Source: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants.
Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
Table 2-2 shows the facilities by furnace type. Twenty-two steel making facilities
have basic oxygen furnaces, while only two facilities have EAFs: Inland Steel and Rouge
Steel. Total basic oxygen capacity at integrated mills is 60.8 million tons per year, while the
EAF capacity is 1.5 million tons per year. Average basic oxygen furnace capacity is
2.8 million tons per year, while average EAF capacity is 725,000 tons per year. Table 2-3
shows steel making capacity and capacity use over time for the United States. Capacity
decreased from 1981 to 1988 and again from 1991 to a low in 1994. Capacity increased each
year from 1994 to 1997, while capacity utilization decreased over this same period.
2-12
-------
Table 2-1. Summary Data for Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities: 1997 (short tons per year)
OJ
Coke Making
Facility Name
Acme Steel Company
AK Steel
AK Steel
Bethlehem Steelb
Bethlehem Steel
Geneva Steel
Gulf States Steel
Inland Steel
LTV Steel
LTV Steel
National Steel
National Steel
Rouge Steel
USX
USX
USX
USS/Kobe Steel
WCI Steel
Weirton Steel
Wheeling-Pittsburgh
Total
Coke Coke
Location Batteries Capacity
Riverdale, IL*
Ashland, KY
Middletown, OH
Bums Harbor, IN
Sparrows Pt, MD
Orem, UT
Gadsden, AL
East Chicago, IN
Cleveland, OHC
East Chicago, IN*
Granite City, IL
Ecorse, MI
Dearborn, MI
Braddock, PAd
Fairfield, AL
Gary, IN
Lorain, OH
Warren, OH
Weirton, WV
Mingo Junction,
OHe
2
2
1
2
0
4
2
0
1
1
2
1
0
12
0
4
0
0
0
4
38
493,552
942,986
410,000
1,672,701
0
700,002
521,000
0
543,156
590,250
570,654
908,733
0
4,854,111
0
1,813,483
0
0
0
1,249,501
15,270,129
Iron Making
Number Total Blast
of Blast Furnace
Furnaces Capacity
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
5
3
2
2
3
2
2
1
4
2
1
2
2
41
1,000,000
2,000,000
2,300,000
4,960,000
3,100,000
2,628,000
1,100,000
NA
4,270,000
3,320,000
2,495,000
3,440,000
2,934,600
2,300,000
2,190,000
7,240,000
2,236,500
1,460,000
2,700,000
2,152,800
53,826,900
Steel Making
Total Total Steel
Number of Making
Furnaces Capacity
1 1,200,000
1 2,100,000
1 2,640,000
1 5,600,000
1 3,375,000
1 2,700,000
1 1,400,000
2 NA
2 6,400,000
1 3,800,000
1 3,300,000
1 3,600,000
2 4,150,000
1 2,957,000
1 2,240,000
2 8,730,000
1 NA
1 2,040,000
1 3,000,000
1 2,400,000
24 61,632,000
Casting
Ingot
Casting
Capacity
2,000,000
0
0
3,400,000
0
2,000,000
0
400,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
0
0
0
7,800,000
Continuous
Casting
Capacity
0
2,000,000
2,700,000
4,500,000
3,600,000
2,400,000
1,100,000
0
5,000,000
3,700,000
3,700,000
4,020,000
4,100,000
2,800,000
2,740,000
7,330,000
NA
1,950,000
3,000,000
2,400,000
57,040,000
Finishing
Number Capacity
of of
Mills Mills
4
0
2
0
4
2
3
2
4
3
2
3
2
0
3
4
NA
2
6
1
47
2,090,000
0
8,300,000
0
5,180,000
5,200,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
8,210,000
6,380,000
3,777,000
6,130,000
5,300,000
0
4,190,000
9,665,000
NA
2,076,000
7,144,000
2,850,000
79,192,000
Includes coke facilities at Chicago, IL.
Bethlehem facility at Lackwanna, NY, not included. It has two coke batteries with coke-
making capacity and production of 747,686 tons per year and a cold reduction mill.
Includes coke facilities at Warren, OH.
Includes coke facilities at Clairton, PA.
Includes coke facilities at Follansbee, WV.
NA = not available.
Sources: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants. Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1998b. Update of Integrated Iron and Steel Industry Responses to Information Collection Request (ICR) Survey.
Database prepared for EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Protection Agency.
-------
Table 2-2. Summary of Steel Making Operations at Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities: 1997
(short tons per year)
Facility Name
Acme Steel Company
AK Steel
AK Steel
Bethlehem Steel"
Bethlehem Steel
Geneva Steel
Gulf States Steel
Inland Steel
LTV Steel
LTV Steel
National Steel
National Steel
Rouge Steel
USX
USX
USX
USS/Kobe Steel
WCI Steel
Weirton Steel
Wheeling-Pittsburgh
Total
Location
Riverdale, IL
Ashland, KY
Middletown, OH
Burns Harbor, IN
Sparrows Pt, MD
Orem, UT
Gadsden, AL
East Chicago, IN
Cleveland, OH
East Chicago, IN
Granite City, IL
Ecorse, MI
Dearborn, MI
Braddock, PA
Fairfield, AL
Gary, IN
Lorain, OH
Warren, OH
Weirton, WV
Mingo Junction, OH
Basic
Number
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
22
Oxygen Furnaces
Total Capacity
1,200,000
2,100,000
2,640,000
5,600,000
3,375,000
2,700,000
1,400,000
NA
6,400,000
3,800,000
3,300,000
3,600,000
3,300,000
2,957,000
2,240,000
8,730,000
NA
2,040,000
3,000,000
2,400,000
60,782,000
Electric
Number
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
Arc Furnaces
Total Capacity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
600,000
0
0
0
0
850,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,450,000
a Bethlehem facility at Lackwanna, NY, not included. It has two coke batteries with coke making capacity and production of 747,686 tons per year.
NA = not available.
Sources: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants. Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1998b. Update of Integrated Iron and Steel Industry Responses to Information Collection Request
(ICR) Survey. Database prepared for EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Protection
Agency.
-------
Table 2-3. U.S. Steel Making Capacity and Utilization: 1981-1997
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Total Capacity (net short tons)
154,300,000
154,000,000
150,600,000
135,300,000
133,600,000
127,000,000
112,200,000
112,000,000
115,900,000
116,700,000
117,600,000
113,100,000
109,900,000
108,200,000
112,400,000
116,100,000
121,400,000
Capacity Utilization (%)
78.3
48.4
56.2
68.4
66.1
63.8
79.5
89.2
84.5
84.7
74.7
82.2
89.1
93.0
93.3
90.7
89.4
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1991. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
Casting operations at integrated steel facilities are previously shown in Table 2-1.
Ingot casting capacity is 7.8 million tons per year, while continuous casting capacity is
57 million tons per year. Four facilities use ingot casting and 17 facilities use continuous
casting. Two facilities—Bethlehem Steel at Burns Harbor, Indiana, and Geneva Steel—use
both ingot and continuous casting. Average casting capacity per reporting facility is
3.4 million tons per year.
All reported finishing mills are shown in Table 2-4. Twelve facilities have hot strip
mills and 15 facilities have cold reduction mills. The number of facilities and reported
capacities of cold reduction and hot strip mills suggest that not all hot strip mills have been
2-15
-------
Table 2-4. Summary of Finishing Mills at Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities: 1997 (short tons per year)
Facility
Name
Acme Steel
Company
AK Steel
AK Steel
Bethlehem
Steel
Bethlehem
Steel
Geneva
Steel
Gulf States
Steel
Inland
Steel
LTV Steel
LTV Steel
National
Steel
National
Steel
Rouge
Steel
USX
USX
USX
USS/Kobe
Steel
Bar Mills
Location
Riverdale, IL
Ashland, KY
Middletown,
OH
Bums
Harbor, IN
Sparrows
Ft, MD
Orem, UT
Gadsden, AL
East
Chicago, IN
Cleveland,
OH
East
Chicago, IN
Granite City,
IL
Ecorse, MI
Dearborn,
MI
Braddock,
PA
Fairfield, AL
Gary, IN
Lorain, OH
Number
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Capacity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,300,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Wire Mills
Number
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Capacity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Rod Mills
Number
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Capacity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Pipe/Tube Mills
Number
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
NA
Capacity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
690,000
0
NA
Plate Mills
Number
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Capacity
0
0
0
0
600,000
0
500,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Hot Strip Mills
Number
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
0
2
2
1
2
1
0
1
3
NA
Capacity
340,000
0
3,000,000
0
1,580,000
0
0
0
2,410,000
2,180,000
777,000
2,700,000
1,800,000
0
1,600,000
3,565,000
NA
Cold Reduction Mills
Number
2
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
NA
Capacity
1,750,000
0
5,300,000
0
3,000,000
5,200,000
900,000
0
5,800,000
4,200,000
3,000,000
3,430,000
3,500,000
0
1,900,000
6,100,000
NA
(continued)
-------
Table 2-4. Summary of Finishing Mills at Integrated Iron and Steel Facilities: 1997 (Continued)
(short tons per year)
Bar Mills
Wire Mills
Rod Mills Pipe/Tube Mills
Plate Mills
uar iviiiis vvireivims KOU ivims i-me/iuoe ivims naie IVIIHS
Facility
Name Location Number Capacity Number Capacity Number Capacity Number Capacity Number Capacity
m ^t^l Wimin ntr n nnn nn n nn n
Hot Strip Mills Cold Reduction Mills
Number Capacity Number Capacity
WCI Steel Warren, OH
Weirton Weirton, 0
Steel WV
Wheeling- Mingo 0
Pittsburgh Junction, OH
1 576,000
5 3,344,000
0
0
1 1,500,000
1 3,800,000
1
2,850,000
Total
1.300.000
0
0
0
0
1
690.000
1.100.000
24 23.872.000
18 52.230.000
NA = not available.
Sources: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants. Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
to
-------
reported, considering that steel must go through a hot strip mill before it can go through a
cold reduction mill. In addition, only two bar mills, two plate mills, and one pipe/tube mill
are shown, reflecting either a lack of reporting, or that the integrated producers conduct a
large amount of their finishing operations at other facilities. Integrated iron and steel industry
summary data for 1997 are shown in Table 2-5.
2.2.2 Companies
Companies that own individual facilities are legal business entities that have the
capacity to conduct business transactions and make business decisions that affect the facility.
This section presents information on the parent companies that own the integrated iron and
steel facilities identified in Section 2.2.1.
As shown in Table 2-6, 14 companies own the integrated iron and steel facilities
identified in Section 2.2.1. USX Corporation has the most production capacity for coke
making, iron making, and steel making, while Acme Metals Inc. has the least capacity of all
companies owning integrated facilities.
Total annual sales for these companies are presented in Table 2-7. Sales for
integrated producers range from $335 million to $6.5 billion, with an average of $3.5 billion.
Company-level employment ranges from 2,471 to 41,620 employees and averages
9,536 employees. According to the Small Business Administration's (SBA's) criterion (e.g.,
fewer than 1,000 employees), none of the companies owning integrated iron and steel
facilities are classified as small businesses.
Ten companies are publicly traded. HMK Enterprises, Inc., which owns Gulf States
Steel, and WHX Corporation, which owns Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel, are both private
companies. National Steel is a subsidiary of NKK USA, a Japanese company. USS/Kobe
Steel Company is a joint venture of U.S. Steel Corporation and Kobe Steel, a Japanese public
company.
Many of the companies that own integrated mills own multiple facilities, indicating
horizontal integration. Some companies also have additional vertical integration. Companies
may own service centers to distribute their steel products, or coal and iron ore mines and
transportation operations to capture the early stages of steel production. For example,
Bethlehem Steel owns BethForge, which manufactures forged steel and cast iron products,
and BethShip, which services ships and fabricates some industrial products.
2-18
-------
Table 2-5. Integrated Iron and Steel Industry Summary Data: 1997"
Coke Making
Total coke batteries (#) 38
Average number per facility 2.92
Total coke capacity (short tons/year) 15,270,129
Average capacity per facility 1,174,625
Iron Making
Total number of blast furnaces (#) 41
Average number per facility 2.05
Total blast furnace capacity (short tons/year) 53,826,900
Average capacity per facility 2,691,345
Steel Making
Total number of furnaces (#) 24
Average number per facility 1.20
Total furnace capacity (short tons/year) 61,632,000
Average capacity per facility 3,081,600
Casting
Total casting capacity (short tons/year) 64,840,000
Average capacity per facility 3,242,000
Finishing
Total number of finishing mills (#) 47
Average number per facility 2.35
Total capacity of finishing mills (short tons/year) 79,192,000
Average capacity per facility 3,959,600
a Excludes facilities without capacity information from EPA survey.
Sources: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants.
Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1998b. Update of Integrated Iron and Steel Industry
Responses to Information Collection Request (ICR) Survey. Database prepared for EPA's Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Protection
Agency.
2-19
-------
Table 2-6. Summary of Integrated Iron and Steel Operations at U.S. Parent Companies: 1997 (short tons per
year)
to
to
o
Company Name
Acme Metals Inc.
AK Steel Corporation
Bethlehem Steel Corporation
Geneva Steel Company
HMK Enterprises Inc.
Inland Steel Industries Inc.
LTV Corporation
National Steel Corporation
Renco Group Inc.
Rouge Industries Inc.
USS/KOBE Steel Company
USX Corporation
Weirton Steel Corporation
WHX Corporation
Total
Coke
Number of
Facilities
2
3
4
4
2
0
2
3
0
0
0
16
0
4
40
Making
Capacity
500,000
1,429,901
2,627,000
800,000
500,000
0
1,164,000
1,526,701
0
0
0
7,823,045
0
1,247,000
17,617,647
Iron
Number of
Blast Furnaces
1
2
3
3
1
5
5
5
1
2
2
7
2
2
41
Making
Capacity
1,000,000
4,300,000
8,060,000
2,628,000
1,100,000
NA
7,590,000
5,935,000
1,460,000
2,934,600
2,236,500
11,730,000
2,700,000
2,152,800
53,826,900
Steel
Number of
Furnaces
1
2
2
1
1
2
3
2
1
2
1
4
1
1
24
Making
Capacity
1,200,000
4,740,000
8,975,000
2,700,000
1,400,000
NA
10,200,000
6,900,000
2,040,000
4,150,000
NA
13,927,000
3,000,000
2,400,000
61,632,000
NA = not available.
Sources: Association of Iron and Steel Engineers (AISE). 1998. 1998 Directory Iron and Steel Plants. Pittsburgh, PA: AISE.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1998b. Update of Integrated Iron and Steel Industry Responses to Information
Collection Request (ICR) Survey. Database prepared for EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle
Park, NC: Environmental Protection Agency.
-------
Table 2-7. Sales, Operating Income, and Profit Rate for Integrated Producers and
Mini-Mills: 1996
Integrated Producers'5
Acme Metals Inc.
AK Steel Corporation
Bethlehem Steel Corporation
Geneva Steel Company
Inland Steel Corporation
LTV Corporation
National Steel Corporation
Rouge Industries, Inc.
U.S. Steel Group
Weirton Steel Corporation
Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corporation
Total
Sales
($106)
335
2,302
3,581
715
2,397
4,135
2,954
1,307
6,533
1,383
1,233
26,875
Operating Income
($106)
-15
265
-87
27
48
173
65
25
483
-14
-3
967
Profit Rate3
(%)
-4.5%
11.5%
-2.4%
3.8%
2.0%
4.2%
2.2%
1.9%
7.4%
-1.0%
-0.2%
3.6%
a The profit rate is determined by dividing the operating income by the total sales.
b Sales data were available for 11 of 14 integrated producers.
Source: American Metal Market. 1998. "AMM Online."
2.2.3 Industry Trends
In the 1960s and 1970s, the steel industry in the United States grew rapidly. During
the 1970s, steel making capacity grew so fast that it greatly exceeded demand. During the
1980s, the number of integrated steel mills declined as did research and development. In the
past few years, research and development has increased in areas such as direct iron making
and continuous steel making (Paxton and DeArdo, 1997b).
New producers continue to enter the market, even though capacity still exceeds
production. New facilities and expansions are primarily in the mini-mill style of EAFs,
which depend on merchant iron sources, rather than blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces.
As the number of EAF producers increases, so does the demand for scrap metal. To avoid
dependence on the scrap market, mini-mills are expanding their use of DRI. Companies who
own integrated facilities are building mini-mill facilities to gain and learn from the cost
advantages of the system. In particular, companies see mini-mills as having a cost advantage
2-21
-------
for flat rolled sheet metal (Samways, 1998). For example, Trico Steel is a mini-mill that was
formed as a joint venture by three companies owning integrated steel mills, the only U.S.
company being LTV. Mini-mills are increasingly targeting high end markets for steel
products, such as the automobile industry. Some experts in the steel industry believe that
integrated mills may be forced to sell pig iron to mini-mills and sell cold rolled and coated
steel themselves (Berry, 1997). National Steel, Weirton Steel, AK Steel, and Bethlehem
Steel may be following this advice because they have all increased their cold rolled line
capacity in 1998 (Woker, 1998).
Integrated mills and their parent companies are also expanding overseas. As
automakers expand their operations abroad, they are encouraging U.S. steel makers who they
are currently dealing with to expand operations overseas or to merge with foreign producers
(Ritt, 1998).
2.3 Uses and Consumers
Construction and automotive industries are the two largest demanders of finished
steel products, consuming 15 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively, of total net shipments in
1997. Although service centers are the single largest market group represented in Figure 2-8,
they are not a single end user group because they represent businesses that buy steel mill
products at wholesale and then resell them. Steel for converting is also not separated into a
specific end-user group.
Over 90 percent of structural components by weight in automobiles are iron-based
(Paxton and DeArdo, 1997b). In 1997, the automotive industry used 12.6 million tons of
sheet and strip (AISI, 1998). The automotive industry also used 1.4 million tons of bars in
1997. Steel mill products are used for large automobile parts, such as body panels. One
technique by steel makers is the use of high strength steel to address the automobile
industry's need for lighter vehicles to achieve fuel efficiency gains. High strength steels are
harder than the alloy steels traditionally used in the industry, meaning that less mass is
necessary to build the same size vehicle. An UltraLight Steel Auto Body has recently been
designed that has a 36 percent decrease in mass from a standard frame (Steel Alliance, 1998).
Drawbacks are that the harder steels require additional processing to achieve a thin gauge,
and manufacturing with high strength steels demands more care and effort due to the low
levels of ductility (Autosteel, 1998a).
2-22
-------
1997
105.9 million short tons
All Other
19.7%
Construction
15.0%
Appliances
1.5%
Automotive
14.4%
Service Centers
26.3%
Machinery and Electricity
'4.5%
Converting
10.6%
Oil and Gas Industry
3.6%
Export (Reporting Companies Only)
" 2.5%
Containers
3.9%
Figure 2-8. 1997 U.S. Steel Shipments by Market Classification
a "All Other" includes rail transportation, agriculture, military, mining, quarrying, and lumbering.
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
Steel makes up 95 percent of all metal used for structural purposes (Furukawa, 1998).
In 1997, the construction industry used 1.5 million tons of net shipments of structural shapes.
Only steel service centers received more structural shapes, totaling nearly 3 million tons,
much of which likely eventually went into construction. Construction used 5.4 million tons
of sheet and strip and 131,000 tons of pipes and tubes in 1997 (AISI, 1998). High-strength
low-alloy steels are increasingly used to construct bridges and towers because they are lighter
than standard carbon. As a result, builders can use smaller sections, thus reducing wind
resistance and allowing for easier construction. Steel use by construction has traditionally
been limited to commercial construction, but as wood prices rise and wood quality drops with
decreased available timber, steel mill products are gaining an increasing share of the
residential housing market. By 2000, 25 percent of all homes are estimated to be built with
steel framing (Steel Recycling Institute, 2000a).
2-23
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Seventy-five percent of the weight of the average appliance is due to steel (Steel
Recycling Institute, 2000b). Appliances, including utensils and cutlery, were responsible for
1.6 million tons of net shipments of steel mill products in 1997. The appliance market also
received bars, pipes, tin mill products, and wire rods (AISI, 1998).
About 95 percent of all food cans in North America are made out of steel; per capita
use of steel cans in North America is 120 cans (AISI, 1998). In 1997, the container industry
received 3.2 million tons of tin mill products, or 79 percent of all tin mill product net
shipments in 1997 (AISI, 1998). In addition, 870,000 tons of sheet and strip were shipped to
the container industry in 1997.
Because steel is used for such diverse products, there are numerous possible
substitutes for it. In Table 2-8, alloy and carbon steel are compared to some possible
substitutes. The density of both steels is greater than any of the substitutes, leading to greater
weight. The cost per ton of all substitute materials is much higher than steel, except for wood
and reinforced concrete. In addition, total annual production of the top three possible
replacements (aluminum, magnesium, and titanium) is only 4 million tons, less than 5 percent
of steel's annual production. Thus, the threat of major replacement by substitutes is low
(Paxton and DeArdo, 1997a).
2.4 Historic Market Data
2.4.1 Steel Mill Products
Table 2-9 presents historic data for all steel mill products. From 1981 to 1997, U.S.
production of steel mill products increased by 1.2 percent; from 1989 to 1997, production
increased by 3.2 percent, showing accelerating growth in shipments. Export growth slowed
from 1989 to 1997 relative to 1981 to 1989, with average annual growth decreasing from
7.2 percent to 4 percent.
As shown in Table 2-10, import average annual growth rates increased sharply during
the period 1991 to 1997, due in part to a large supply of cheap steel from Asia. Many U.S.
companies are seeking legislation to prevent foreign companies from dumping steel in the
United States at low prices. In February 1999, the U.S. Department of Commerce found that
Brazil and Japan have illegally dumped steel in the United States at up to 70 percent below
the normal price (Associated Press, 1999).
2-24
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Table 2-8. Comparison of Steel and Substitutes by Cost, Strength, and Availability:
1997
Reinforced concrete
Wood
Alloy steel
Carbon steel
Aluminum alloy
Magnesium alloy
Titanium alloy
Glass-fiber reinforced plastic
Carbon-fiber reinforced plastic
Yield
Strength
MN/m2
50
70
1,000
220
1,300
140
800
200
600
Density
Mg/m3
2.5
0.55
7.87
7.87
2.7
1.74
4.5
1.8
1.5
Cost $/metric
ton
40
400
826
385 to 600
3,500
3,200
18,750
3,900
113,000
Absolute
Production
Weight
(106 tons/yr)
500
69
86.2 (all steel)
a
3.8
0.13
0.06
NA
NA
Absolute
Production
Volume
(106 m3/yr)
200
125
11 (all steel)
a
1.4
0.07
0.01
NA
NA
a Production of carbon steel included with alloy steel.
NA = not available
Source: Paxton, H.W., and A.J. DeArdo. January 1997a. "Steel vs. Aluminum, Plastic, and the Rest." New
Steel.
U.S. apparent consumption average annual growth rates also increased from
-1 percent for 1981 to 1989 to 4.4 percent for 1989 to 1997. The strengthening U.S.
economy, with greater consumption, including automobiles and new construction with
expanding and new companies, has increased the demand for steel in the United States.
As shown in Table 2-11, the average export concentration ratio has increased from
0.02 for 1981 to 1988 to 0.06 for 1989 to 1997. Increasing export concentration ratios
indicate that a greater percentage of U.S. production is being sold overseas. Average import
concentration ratios decreased slightly from 0.22 for 1981 to 1988 to 0.20 for 1989 to 1997,
suggesting that imports' share of U.S. consumption has increased only slightly.
2-25
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Table 2-9. Net Shipments of Steel Mill Products by Market Classification: 1981-1997 (103 short tons)
to
Year Automotive
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
13,154
9,288
12,320
12,882
12,950
11,889
11,343
12,555
11,763
11,100
10,015
11,092
12,719
14,753
14,622
14,665
15,251
Construction
11,676
8,570
9,974
10,153
11,230
10,614
11,018
12,102
11,500
12,115
11,467
12,230
13,429
14,283
14,892
15,561
15,885
Appliances
1,775
1,337
1,618
1,635
1,466
1,648
1,633
1,638
1,721
1,540
1,388
1,503
1,592
1,736
1,589
1,713
1,635
Containers
5,292
4,470
4,532
4,352
4,089
4,113
4,372
4,421
4,459
4,474
4,278
3,974
4,355
4,495
4,139
4,101
4,163
Oil and Machinery and Service
Gas Electricity Centers Converting
6,238
2,745
1,296
2,003
2,044
1,023
1,489
1,477
1,203
1,892
1,425
1,454
1,526
1,703
2,643
3,254
3,811
7,224
4,587
4,821
5,251
4,140
4,189
4,650
5,257
4,858
4,841
4,084
4,087
4,404
4,726
4,707
4,811
4,789
17,637
13,067
16,710
18,364
18,439
17,478
19,840
21,037
20,769
21,111
19,464
21,328
23,714
24,153
23,751
27,124
27,800
5,058
3,222
4,403
5,136
5,484
5,635
7,195
8,792
8,235
9,441
8,265
9,226
9,451
10,502
10,440
10,245
11,263
Exports
1,845
832
544
428
494
495
515
1,233
3,183
2,487
4,476
2,650
2,110
1,710
4,442
2,328
2,610
All Other3
18,551
13,449
11,366
13,535
12,707
13,179
14,599
15,328
16,409
15,980
13,984
14,697
15,722
17,023
16,269
17,076
18,651
Total
88,450
61,567
67,584
73,739
73,043
70,263
76,654
83,840
84,100
84,981
78,846
82,241
89,022
95,084
97,494
100,878
105,858
Average Annual Growth Rates
1981-1997
1981-1989
1989-1997
1.0%
-1.3%
3.7%
2.3%
-0.2%
4.8%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-1.3%
-2.0%
-0.8%
-2.4%
-10.1%
27.1%
-2.1%
-4.1%
-0.2%
3.6%
2.2%
4.2%
7.7%
7.9%
4.6%
2.6%
9.1%
-2.3%
0.0%
-1.4%
1.7%
1.2%
-0.6%
3.2%
a "All Other" includes rail transportation, aircraft and aerospace, shipbuilding, mining, agriculture, and nonclassified shipments.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1991. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC: American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1993. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC: American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC: American Iron and Steel Institute.
-------
Table 2-10. U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill
Products: 1981-1997 (103 short tons)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1981-1997
1981-1989
1989-1997
Production3
88,450
61,567
67,584
73,739
73,043
70,263
76,654
83,840
84,100
84,981
78,846
82,241
89,022
95,084
97,494
100,878
105,858
1.2%
-0.6%
3.2%
Exports
2,904
1,842
1,199
980
932
929
1,129
2,069
4,578
4,303
6,346
4,288
3,968
3,826
7,080
5,031
6,036
Average Annual Growth
6.7%
7.2%
4.0%
Imports
19,898
16,663
17,070
26,163
24,256
20,692
20,414
20,891
17,321
17,169
15,845
17,075
19,501
30,066
24,409
29,164
31,157
Rates
3.5%
-1.6%
10.0%
Apparent
Consumption1"
105,444
76,388
83,455
98,922
96,367
90,026
95,939
102,662
96,843
97,847
88,345
95,028
104,555
121,324
114,823
125,011
130,979
1.5%
-1.0%
4.4%
a Measured as net shipments, which are total production minus intracompany transfers.
b Equals U.S. production minus exports plus imports.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1991. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1993. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
2-27
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Table 2-11. Foreign Trade Concentration Ratios for U.S. Steel Mill Products:
1981-1997
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Export Concentration (%)
Ratio3
3.3
3.0
1.8
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
2.5
5.4
5.1
8.0
5.2
4.5
4.0
7.3
5.0
5.7
Import Concentration (%)
Ratio"
18.9
21.8
20.5
26.4
25.2
23.0
21.3
20.3
17.9
17.5
17.9
18.0
18.7
24.8
21.3
23.3
23.8
a Measured as export share of U.S. production.
b Measured as import share of U.S. apparent consumption.
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1991. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1993. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
Table 2-12 shows 1997 data broken down by steel mill product. A breakdown of
these data between mini-mills and integrated mills is not available. Sheet and strip, which is
the one product that all integrated mills produce, is the largest single category, followed by
bars and structural shapes and plates.
2-28
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Table 2-12. U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill
Products: 1997 (tons)
Product
Semi-finished
Structural Shapes and Plate
Rail and Track
Bars
Tool Steel
Pipe and Tube
Wire-drawn
Tin Mill
Sheet and Strip
Production3
7,927,145
14,883,805
874,648
18,708,680
63,465
6,547,953
619,070
4,058,054
52,175,194
Exports
295,325
1,260,197
92,095
820,523
14,745
1,352,006
136,697
410,011
1,653,990
Imports
8,595,964
4,079,451
238,190
2,495,817
131,363
3,030,239
655,000
637,000
11,293,000
Apparent
Consumption1"
16,227,784
17,703,059
1,020,743
20,383,974
180,083
8,226,186
1,137,373
4,285,043
61,814,204
a Reflects net shipments, which are total shipments minus intracompany transfers.
b Reflects U.S. production minus exports, plus imports.
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
In general, production and consumption of steel mill products have increased over the
last 10 years, suggesting that the steel market is strengthening. The health of the steel
industry is closely tied to the health of the United States and world economy, because steel is
a major component of a wide variety of products, particularly construction. Imports and
exports have also risen, showing opening trade markets and integration of the global
economy. Imports did not rise more than exports for a large number of steel mill products,
suggesting that the U.S. steel industry is maintaining its foothold in the U.S. steel market.
2.4.2 Market Prices
Table 2-13 shows the prices by steel type for all steel mill products in 1997. Some
products are only available in a single type of steel. For example, rails and accessories are
only made with carbon steel, tool steel is always alloy steel, and tin mill products always
have carbon steel as the base steel. Prices for semi-finished carbon steel are lower than for
any other steel mill products, as expected. Wire-drawn steel has the highest carbon steel
2-29
-------
price, at more than twice the price of semi-finished carbon steel. Alloy steel versions of the
products are generally more expensive than carbon steel versions with the exception of sheet
and strip. This may reflect the more extensive processing and finishing of carbon sheet and
strip, such as coatings and treatments. Wire-drawn alloy steel is nearly three times the price
of the carbon steel version. Tool steel is the most expensive alloy steel product at more than
seven times the price of alloy sheet and strip. The high price of tool steel reflects its highly
specialized nature and the fact that alloy mixtures for tool steel have higher raw material
costs than other alloy steels.
Stainless steel versions of products are the most expensive for all product types that
are available in stainless steel, at several times the price of carbon versions and at least twice
the price of alloy versions. High stainless steel prices do not strongly affect average steel mill
product prices overall, however, because stainless steel products are typically a small
percentage of all steel products of that type.
2.5 Future Projections
2.5.1 Iron Making
Table 2-14 shows projected blast furnace activity through the year 2004. Business
Communications Company (BCC) projects that coke consumption will steadily decrease as a
result of projected improvements in efficiency. BCC's projections also reflect anticipated
moves to cokeless iron making technologies such as DRI (which is being marketed in the
United States by Midrex) and gradual decreases in the use of blast furnaces to provide the
iron source for steel making.
2.5.2 Steel Making and Casting
Table 2-15 shows projected apparent consumption of steel mill products. BCC
expects overall U.S. steel production to increase until 2004. Largely powered by the success
of the mini-mills, EAFs are expected to produce increasing amounts of steel, and their share
of total steel production is also projected to rise. Basic oxygen furnaces and EAFs are both
expected to increase their consumption of scrap metal as an iron source, and basic oxygen
furnaces are also expected to decrease their consumption of pig iron. Pig iron production as a
whole will likely decrease, but integrated mills are expected to sell more pig iron to
mini-mills than they currently do, as a result of the increasing pig iron content of electric arc
furnace charge. Basic oxygen furnaces and EAFs are both expected to increase their
2-30
-------
Table 2-13. Market Prices and Net Shipments of Steel Mill Products by Steel Type:
1997
Product
Semi-finished
Structural shapes and plates
Rails and accessories
Bars
Tool steel
Pipe and tubing
Wire-drawn
Tin mill
Sheet and strip
All steel mill products
Carbon
$371.57
435.68
639.90
436.76
NA
714.63
847.24
594.60
639.60
581.35
Type of Steel
Alloy
Price3
$984.35
634.09
NA
669.65
4,682.22
1,003.14
2,273.81
NA
599.21
792.39
Stainless
($/short ton)
$1,368.45
2,708.48
NA
4,083.75
NA
4,290.63
4,937.19
NA
2,134.45
2,405.67
All Types
$494.58
496.19
639.90
508.52
4,682.22
805.88
922.42
594.60
677.92
639.74
Net Shipments (short tons)
Semi-finished
Structural shapes and plates
Rails and accessories
Bars
Tool steel
Pipe and tubing
Wire-drawn
Tin mill
Sheet and strip
All steel mill products
6,887,123
14,186,751
874,648
16,082,256
NA
5,278,694
564,891
4,058,054
49,576,735
97,509,152
961,504
437,048
NA
2,454,364
63,465
1,236,073
28,614
NA
1,100,830
6,281,898
78,518
260,006
NA
172,060
NA
33,186
25,565
NA
1,497,629
2,066,964
7,927,145
14,883,805
874,648
18,708,680
63,465
6,547,953
619,070
4,058,054
52,175,194
105,858,014
a Price calculated by dividing value of shipments by quantity of shipments.
NA = Not available because product is not made with this type of steel.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1998. Annual Statistical Report. Washington, DC:
American Iron and Steel Institute.
U.S. Department of Commerce. 1997. Current Industrial Reports. Washington, DC: Bureau of
the Census.
2-31
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Table 2-14. Projected U.S. Production, Foreign Trade, and Apparent Consumption of
Steel Mill Products: 1994,1999, and 2004 (103 short tons)
Year
1994
1999
2004
1994-2004
1994-1999
1999-2004
Production3
97,372
104,000
107,000
Average
1.0%
1.4%
0.6%
Exports
5,902
7,000
5,500
Annual Growth Rates
-0.7%
3.7%
-4.3%
Imports
30,130
23,000
24,500
-1.9%
-4.7%
1.3%
Apparent
Consumptionb
121,600
120,000
126,000
0.4%
-0.3%
1.0%
a Measures as net shipments, which are total production minus intracompany transfers.
b Equals U.S. production minus exports plus imports.
Source: Business Communications Company. October 1995. "The Future of the Steel Industry in the U.S."
Table 2-15. Projected U.S. Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill Product by Type:
1994,1999, and 2004 (103 short tons)
Year
1994
1999
2004
1994-2004
1994-1999
1999-2004
Structural
Shapes and
Plates
16,300
15,950
17,550
0.8%
-0.4%
2.0%
Bars
18,000
17,800
19,500
Average
0.8%
-0.2%
1.9%
Pipes and
Tubing
7,200
7,240
7,300
Annual Growth
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
Sheet and
Strip
57,200
56,870
58,000
Rates
0.1%
-0.1%
0.4%
All Others
22,900
22,140
23,650
0.3%
-0.7%
1.4%
Total
121,600
120,000
126,000
0.4%
-0.3%
1.0%
Source: Business Communications Company. October 1995. "The Future of the Steel Industry in the U.S."
2-32
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consumption of DRI. EAFs will experience especially rapid growth, with DRI consumption
projected to increase to 6 million tons per year by 2004.
2.5.3 Steel Mill Products
Table 2-16 shows apparent consumption of steel by-products. BCC projects that
U.S. consumption of steel mill products will decrease slightly before the end of the century,
but then increase by the year 2004. All steel mill products are also expected to have positive
annual growth rates until 1999 and through 2004. By the year 2004, all steel mill products
are projected to rise to higher levels of consumption than experienced in 1994. Average
annual growth rates are expected to be low, however, at only 1 percent for all steel mill
products on average. BCC projects that imports of steel mill products will decrease for all
products, and although some will increase somewhat by 2004, none are expected to recover
to 1994 levels.
Table 2-16. Apparent Consumption of Steel By-Products: 1994-2004 (103 net tons)
1994
1999
2004
1994-2004
1994-1999
1999-2004
Structural
Shapes and
Plates
16,300
15,950
17,550
0.77%
-0.43%
2.01%
Bars
18,000
17,800
19,500
Average
0.83%
-0.22%
1.91%
Pipes and
Tubing
7,200
7,240
7,300
Annual Growth
0.14%
0.11%
0.17%
Sheet and
Strip
57,200
56,870
58,000
Rates
0.14%
-0.12%
0.40%
All Others
22,900
22,140
23,650
0.33%
-0.66%
1.36%
Total
121,600
120,000
126,000
0.36%
-0.26%
1.00%
2.5.4 End User Markets
Table 2-17 shows apparent steel consumption for selected end users. BCC projects
the consumption of steel by end-user markets to increase by 2004 to levels above 1994, but
not for all user groups. BCC expects containers to have continuous decreases in steel
2-33
-------
Table 2-17. Apparent Steel Consumption for Selected End Users: 1994-2004 (103 net tons)
Construction
1994
1999
2004
27,500
27,620
31,000
Automotive
26,500
24,830
26,000
Oil and Gas
4,200
3,825
3,900
Machinery
and
Equipment
6,000
6,000
6,150
Average Annual
1994-2004
1994-1999
1999-2004
1.3%
0.1%
2.5%
-0.2%
-1.3%
0.9%
-0.7%
-1.8%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.5%
Appliances,
Electrical Utensils, and
Equipment Cutlery
6,500
6,500
6,700
Growth Rates
0.3%
0.0%
0.6%
4,000
4,000
4,150
0.4%
0.0%
0.8%
Containers
6,600
6,400
6,225
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
All
Others
40,300
40,825
41,275
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
Total
121,600
120,000
125,400
0.3%
-0.3%
0.9%
Source: Business Communications Company. October 1995. "The Future of the Steel Industry in the U.S."
-------
consumption, and they project that automotive and oil and gas consumption will not recover
to 1994 levels as of 2004. Actual changes in steel consumption levels are quite low, with
average annual growth rates between -1 and 1 percent for all groups except construction,
automotive, and oil and gas. BCC expects construction to experience increased consumption
after 1999, with average annual growth rates of 2.45 percent until 2004. BCC projects that
automotive and oil and gas will have negative annual growth greater than -1 percent until
1999.
Table 2-18 shows steel imports by end-use markets. Import patterns for end-user
groups are similar to consumption patterns, although more extreme. BCC expects imports by
the automotive industry to experience significant decreases until 2004, with an average
annual growth rate from 1994 to 1999 of-11 percent.
Decreased steel imports by the automotive industry and decreased overall
consumption are due to decreased steel content in automobiles. Steel content has decreased
since 1972 (see Section 3), and experts expect the pattern to continue at least until 2000. As
shown in Table 2-19, the use of steel by the industry is projected to decrease even more
rapidly between 1996 and 2000. BCC projects the automobile industry to have increased
demand of aluminum, magnesium, plastics, and glass through the year 2000. BCC expects
demand for aluminum to nearly double and demand for magnesium to nearly triple. Despite
decreased steel demand and increased demand for other materials, BCC projects the demand
for all four other materials to be just over half of the demand for steel.
2-35
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Table 2-18. Steel Imports by End-Use Markets: 1994-2004 (103 net tons)
Construction
1994
1999
2004
5,600
3,620
4,000
Automotive
5,200
2,330
1,900
Oil and Gas
1,860
1,600
1,650
Machinery
and
Equipment
1,700
1,750
1,800
Average Annual
1994-2004
1994-1999
^ 1999-2004
-2.86%
-7.07%
2.10%
-6.35%
-11.04%
-3.69%
-1.13%
-2.80%
0.63%
0.59%
0.59%
0.57%
Appliances,
Electrical Utensils, and
Equipment Cutlery
1,475
1,500
1,600
Growth Rates
0.85%
0.34%
1.33%
725
650
680
-0.62%
-2.07%
0.92%
Containers
1,230
1,100
1,200
-0.24%
-2.11%
1.82%
All
Others
12,310
10,450
11,670
-0.52%
-3.02%
2.33%
Total
30,100
23,000
24,500
-1.86%
-4.72%
1.30%
-------
Table 2-19. Demand Forecast for Raw Materials in Motor Vehicles: 1992,1996, and
2000 (metric tons)
1992
1996
2000
1992-2000
1992-1996
1996-2000
Steel
30
29
24
-2.50%
-0.83%
-4.31%
Aluminum
3.2
4.1
6.0
Average Annual
10.94%
7.03%
11.59%
Magnesium
0.35
0.5
1.0
Growth Rates
23.21%
10.71%
25.00%
Plastics
5.00
5.45
6.35
3.38%
2.25%
4.13%
Glass
1.00
1.05
1.08
1.00%
1.25%
0.71%
Source: EIU. "The Material Revolution to the Motor Industry." September 1993. The Dialog Corporation.
.
2-37
-------
SECTION 3
ENGINEERING COST ANALYSIS
Control measures implemented to comply with the MACT standard will impose
regulatory costs on integrated iron and steel mills. This section presents compliance costs for
affected mills, or plants, and the national estimate of compliance costs associated with the
proposed rule. These engineering costs are defined as the annual capital and operating and
maintenance costs assuming no behavioral market adjustment by producers or consumers.
For input to the EIA, engineering costs are expressed per unit of steel mill product and used
to shift the individual mill supply functions in the market model.
The proposed MACT will cover the Integrated Iron and Steel Manufacturing source
category. As such it will affect 20 integrated iron and steel mills across the nation. The
processes covered by the proposed regulation include sinter production, iron production in
blast furnaces, and basic oxygen process furnace (BOPF) shops, which includes hot metal
transfer, slag skimming, steelmaking in BOPFs, and ladle metallurgy. Capital, operating and
maintenance, and monitoring costs were estimated for each plant, where appropriate. All 20
plants will be required to install additional monitoring equipment, while new or upgraded
control equipment will be required at four of the plants.
3.1 Overview of Emissions from Integrated Iron and Steel Plants
There are a variety of metal HAP contained in the paniculate matter emitted from iron
and steel manufacturing processes. These include primarily manganese and lead with much
smaller quantities of antimony, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, mercury,
nickel, and selenium. Organic HAP compounds are released in trace amounts from the sinter
plant windbox exhaust and include polycyclic organic matter (such as polynuclear aromatic
hydrocarbons and chlorinated dibenzodioxins and furans), and volatile organics such as
benzene, carbon disulfide, toluene, and xylene.
The control of particulate matter (PM) emissions results in the control of metal HAP.
Capture systems ventilated to different types of air pollution control devices (baghouses,
venturi scrubbers, and electrostatic precipitators) are used on the various processes for PM
3-1
-------
control. In addition, suppression techniques (steam or flame suppression, covered runners)
are often used to control PM emissions by limiting the contact of molten iron or steel with
oxygen, which prevents the formation of metal oxide emissions. Organic emissions from the
sinter plant windboxes occur when oil is present in the sinter feed. The most effective
control for these organic emission is a pollution prevention technique—carefully monitoring
and limiting the oil content of the sinter feed.
Based on test data and best engineering judgment, the proposed standards are
expected to reduce HAP emissions from integrated iron and steel plants by 13 tons per year,
and PM emissions will be reduced by about 1,500 tons per year. The emission reductions
result from new or upgraded control equipment at four plants: (1) a capture and control
system for the blast furnace casthouse, (2) new venturi scrubbers for the BOPF and upgraded
controls for fugitive emissions, (3) a scrubber upgrade at a BOPF shop, and (4) replacing
venturi scrubbers with baghouses in the BOPF shop.
3.2 Approach for Estimating Compliance Costs
The costs associated with improved emission control are based on what each plant
may have to do with respect to upgrading or replacing emission control equipment. The
estimates are worst case or upper bound estimates because they assume in several cases that
plants will have to replace existing control equipment, when in fact, it may be possible to
upgrade existing controls. Costs are also included for additional monitoring, primarily for
bag leak detection systems for fabric filters (baghouses). Monitoring equipment is already in
place for existing venturi scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators. The cost estimates are
derived from industry survey responses, information from vendors, and procedures in EPA's
manual for estimating costs.
3.3 Basic Oxygen Process Furnace (BOPF) Primary Control Systems
Two plants were identified as candidates for upgrading or replacing their venturi
scrubbers used as the primary control devices for BOPFs. Ispat-Inland's Number 4 EOF
shop has three venturi scrubbers that are over 30 years old and were designed with a lower
pressure drop (25 inches of water) than most scrubbers that are currently used. The company
had performed an engineering analysis in 1990 to estimate the cost of replacing these
scrubbers with higher pressure scrubbers (Carson, 2000). The estimate is based on an
entirely new emission control system that includes three venturi scrubbers and three new
3-2
-------
capture hoods for the BOPFs. The capital cost estimates are presented below and are indexed
to 1998 dollars:
Item Capital cost (millions of dollars)
Three venturi scrubbers 11
Three new BOPF hoods 6.6
Engineering 0.7
Miscellaneous 0.4
Total ($1990) 18.7
Total ($1998) index = 389.5/357.6 20
The increase in operating cost for the new scrubbers is primarily the cost of increased energy
(electricity) due to operating at the higher pressure drop. A cost function is provided in
EPA's cost manual (EPA, 1986) that expresses electricity cost as a function of the volumetric
flow rate and pressure drop:
Electricity cost ($/yr) = 0.00018 x acfm x Ap x hrs/yr x $/kW-hr
Estimates of electrical costs are given below for pressure drops of 25 and 50 inches of water
based on 600,000 acfm, 8,760 hrs/yr, and $0.059/kW-hr:
Ap (in. water) Cost ($ millions/yr)
25 1.4
50 2.8
The increase in operating cost for the higher pressure drop scrubbers is estimated as $1.4
million per year.
Test data indicated that the venturi scrubbers at AK Steel (Middletown, OH) may
require a minor upgrade to improve emission control. These scrubbers were designed with an
adequate pressure drop (50 to 60 inches of water). However, the water supply system may
need to be upgraded, and the scrubbers do not have demisters. Estimates obtained from a
3-3
-------
vendor indicated that two demisters for two 72-inch diameter stacks would cost about $7,000
(316 stainless steel chevrons). The cost of new water supply piping (EPA, 1986) for venturi
scrubbers of this size was estimated as $10,600 for a total equipment cost of $17,600. Based
on a retrofit factor of 1.3 and an indirect cost factor (from the cost manual [EPA, 1986]) of 36
percent of the purchased equipment cost, the total installed capital cost for the minor scrubber
upgrade is estimated as $31,000.
3.4 Secondary Capture and Control Systems for Fugitive Emissions
Only one plant reported no controls for their casthouse—Gulf States Steel in
Gadsden, Alabama. This plant may be able to use flame suppression and covered runners to
provide adequate control to meet an opacity limit for the casthouse. However, a worst case
approach is used by assuming that a capture system and baghouse may need to be installed.
Based on the cost for such a system as reported by USS/Kobe Steel (Stinson, 1996), costs are
estimated as an installed capital cost of $3.3 million, an operating cost of $0.7 million per
year, and a total annualized cost of $1.0 million per year (includes capital recovery based on a
20-year life and 7 percent interest rate.)
AK Steel has a closed hood EOF shop in Middletown, OH that does not have a
secondary capture and control system. The cost of a new system, including a baghouse
control device, is estimated from the costs reported by two plants (Geneva Steel [Shaw,
1996] and AK Steel [Bradley, 1996] in Kentucky): capital cost of $3.4 million, an operating
cost of $0.5 million per year, and a total annualized cost of $0.8 million per year (includes
capital recovery based on a 20-year life and 7 percent interest rate.)
The MACT technology for secondary capture and control systems is a baghouse, and
all plants except two use baghouses. Ispat-Inland and Bethlehem Steel (Burns Harbor, IN)
use scrubbers as the control device for secondary emissions in the BOF shop. There is
uncertainty about the level of emission control these scrubbers can achieve. As a worst case
scenario we assume these scrubbers must be replaced by a baghouse at a capital cost of $3.4
million in these two plants. There would be no increase in operating cost (the operating cost
for baghouses would be less than the current operating costs for the scrubbers).
3.5 Bag Leak Detection Systems
Each baghouse will be equipped with a bag leak detection system. These systems
have an installed capital cost of $9,000 each with an annual operating cost of $500/year
(EPA, 1998). There are approximately 88 baghouses at the 20 iron and steel plants.
3-4
-------
Consequently, the total capital cost for bag leak detectors is $0.8 million with an annual
operating cost of $44,000/year.
3.6 Total Nationwide Costs
The nationwide costs are summarized in Table 3-1 and, as described previously, may
represent a worst case estimate because some of these plants may not have to install new
controls. The nationwide total capital investment is estimated at $34 million, while the total
annualized cost is estimated at $5.9 million per year with $3 million in annual capital costs
and $2.9 million in annual operating and maintenance costs.
Table 3-1. Nationwide Cost of Proposed MACT Standard for Integrated Iron and Steel
Mills: YEAR
Source
Gulf States, baghouse for casthouse
AK Steel (Middletown, OH), baghouse for
secondary EOF system
AK Steel, EOF scrubber upgrade
Ispat Inland, new primary scrubbers and hoods
for No. 4 EOF shop (50 in. Ap)
Ispat-Inland, baghouse to replace scrubber for
secondary EOF system
Bethlehem, Burns Harbor, baghouse to replace
scrubber for secondary EOF system
Bag leak detection systems
Total
Annual
Total Capital
Capital ($
($ million) million/yr)
3.3
3.4
0.03
20
3.4
3.4
0.8
34 3.0
Annual
Operating
($
million/yr)
0.7
0.5
0
1.4
0
0
0.04
2.6
Total
Annual
($
million/yr)
1.0
0.8
0.003
3.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
5.9
3-5
-------
SECTION 4
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
The proposed rule to control the release of HAPs from integrated iron and steel mill
product operations will directly (through imposition of compliance costs) or indirectly
(through changes in market prices) affect the entire U.S. iron and steel industry.
Implementation of the proposed rule will increase the costs of producing steel mill products
at affected facilities. As described in Section 3, these costs will vary across facilities and
depend on their physical characteristics and baseline controls. The response by these
producers to these additional costs will determine the economic impacts of the regulation.
Specifically, the impacts will be distributed across producers and consumers of steel mill
products and furnace coke through changes in prices and quantities in the affected markets.
This section presents estimates of the economic impacts of the integrated iron and steel
MACT using an economic model that captures the linkages between the steel mill products
and furnace coke markets.
This section describes the data and approach used to estimate the economic impacts
of this proposed rule for the baseline year of 1997. Section 4.1 presents the inputs for the
economic analysis, including characterization of producers, markets, and the costs of
compliance. Section 4.2 summarizes the conceptual approach to estimating the economic
impacts on the affected industries. A fully detailed description of the economic impact
methodology is provided in Appendix A. Lastly, Section 4.3 provides the results of the
economic impact analysis.
4.1 EIA Data Inputs
Inputs to the economic analysis are a baseline characterization of directly and
indirectly affected producers, their markets, and the estimated costs of complying with the
proposed rule.
4.1.1 Producer Characterization
As detailed in Section 2, the baseline characterization of integrated and merchant
manufacturing plants is based on the facility responses to EPA's industry survey and industry
4-1
-------
data sources. These plant-specific data on existing sources were supplemented with
secondary information from the 1998 Directory of Iron and Steel Plants published by the
Association of Iron and Steel Engineers and World Cokemaking Capacity published by the
International Iron and Steel Institute, as well as mill-specific product supply equations for
steel mill products (as described fully in Appendix A).
4.1.2 Market Characterization
Figure 4-1 summarizes the market interactions included in the Agency's EIA
modeling approach. Changes in the equilibrium price and quantity due to control costs on
integrated iron and steel mills were estimated simultaneously in two linked markets:
• market for steel mill products and
• market for furnace coke.
As described in Section 2, steel mill products are supplied by three general groups:
integrated iron and steel mills, nonintegrated steel mills (primarily mini-mills), and imports.
Domestic consumers of steel mill products and exports account for the market demand. The
market for steel mill products will be directly affected by the imposition of compliance costs
on integrated mills.
In addition, as illustrated in Figure 4-1, the furnace coke market will be affected by
the proposed regulation through changes in the derived demand from integrated mills
producing steel mill products. Integrated mills' market (and captive) demand for furnace
coke depends on their production levels as influenced by the market for steel mill products.
Integrated iron and steel mills that need more coke than their captive batteries can produce
purchase furnace coke from the market. Many captive coke plants supply their excess coke
to the furnace coke market. Merchant coke plants and foreign imports account for the
remaining supply to the furnace coke market. Furnace coke produced at captive coke plants
and shipped directly to integrated iron and steel mills owned by their parent companies does
not directly enter the market for furnace coke.
Table 4-1 provides the 1997 data on the U.S. steel mill products and furnace coke
markets used in this analysis. The market price for steel mill products was obtained from
Current Industrial Reports (CIR) (U.S. DOC, 1997) and reflects the production-weighted
average across all product types. The market price for furnace coke was determined,
consistent with economic theory, by the highest-cost merchant producer. Domestic
4-2
-------
Consumers of Steel
Mill Products
Imports
Exports -<
Integrated Iron
and Steel Mills
Finishing Mills
Steelmaking Furnace j"
Blast Furnace
I
Captive Coke Plants
Imports
Figure 4-1. Market Linkages Modeled in the Economic Impact Analysis
production from affected facilities reflects the aggregate of the plant-specific data presented
in Section 2, while unaffected domestic production is derived either directly from secondary
sources or as the difference between observed total U.S. production and the aggregate
production from affected facilities. Foreign trade data were obtained from industry and
government statistical publications supplemented by survey data. Market volumes for each
product are then computed as the sum of U.S. production and foreign imports.
4.1.3 Regulatory Control Costs
As shown in Section 3, the Agency developed compliance costs based on plant
characteristics and current controls at integrated iron and steel manufacturing facilities
4-3
-------
Table 4-1. Baseline Characterization of U.S. Iron and Steel Markets: 1997
Baseline
Steel Mill Products
Market price ($/short ton) $639.74
Market output (103tpy) 137,015
Domestic production 105,858
Integrated producers 62,083
Nonintegrated steel mills3 43,775
Imports 31,157
Furnace Coke
Market price ($/short ton) $107.36
Market output (103 tpy) 11,710
Domestic production 7,944
Imports 3,765
a Includes mini-mills.
affected by the proposed rule. These estimates reflect the "most-reasonable" scenario for this
industry. To be consistent with the 1997 baseline industry characterization of the economic
model, the Agency adjusted the compliance cost estimates from 1998 dollars to 1997 dollars
using the producer price index.1 These cost estimates serve as inputs to the economic
analysis and affect the operating decisions for each affected facility and thereby the markets
served by these facilities.
4.2 EIA Methodology Summary
In general, the EIA methodology needs to allow EPA to consider the effect of the
different regulatory alternatives. Several types of economic impact modeling approaches
have been developed to support regulatory development. These approaches can be viewed as
varying along two modeling dimensions:
'Finished Goods 1982 = 100.
= 1.008
130.7
4-4
-------
• the scope of economic decision making accounted for in the model and
• the scope of interaction between different segments of the economy.
Each of these dimensions was considered in selecting the approach used to model the
economic impact of the proposed integrated iron and steel regulation.
To conduct the analysis for the proposed regulation, the Agency used a market
modeling approach that incorporates behavioral responses in a multiple-market partial
equilibrium model. Multiple-market partial equilibrium analysis provides a manageable
approach to incorporating interactions between steel mill product and furnace coke markets
into the EIA to better estimate the proposed regulation's impact. The multiple-market partial
equilibrium approach represents an intermediate step between a simple, single-market partial
equilibrium approach and a full general equilibrium approach. The modeling technique is to
link a series of standard partial equilibrium models by specifying the interactions between the
supply and demand for products and then solving for changes in prices and quantities across
all markets simultaneously. The EIA methodology is fully detailed in Appendix A.
The Agency's methodology is soundly based on standard microeconomic theory
relying heavily on previous economic analyses, employs a comparative static approach, and
assumes certainty in relevant markets. For this analysis, prices and quantities are determined
in perfectly competitive markets for steel mill products and furnace coke. The competitive
model of price formation, as shown in Figure 4-2(a), posits that market prices and quantities
are determined by the intersection of market supply and demand curves. Under the baseline
scenario, a market price and quantity (P, Q) are determined by the downward-sloping market
demand curve (DM) and the upward-sloping market supply curve (SM) that reflects the
horizontal summation of the individual supply curves of directly affected and indirectly
affected facilities that produce a given product.
With the regulation, the cost of production increases for directly affected producers.
The imposition of the compliance costs is represented as an upward shift in the supply curve
for each affected facility from Sa to Sa'. As a result, the market supply curve shifts upward to
SM/ as shown in Figure 4-2(b), reflecting the increased costs of production at these facilities.
In the baseline scenario without the proposed standards, the industry would produce total
output, Q, at the price, P, with affected facilities producing the amount qa and unaffected
facilities accounting for Q minus qa, or qu. At the new equilibrium with the regulation, the
market price increases from P to P', and market output (as determined from the market
4-5
-------
+ p
= p
qa
Affected Facilities
Unaffected Facilities
a) Baseline Equilibrium
Market
P'
P
S'
P'
P
-------
demand curve, DM) declines from Q to Q'. This reduction in market output is the net result
from reductions at affected facilities and increases at unaffected facilities.
4.3 Economic Impact Results
Based on the simple analytics presented above, when faced with higher costs of
production, producers will attempt to mitigate the impacts by making adjustments to shift as
much of the burden on other economic agents as market conditions allow. The adjustments
available to facility operators include changing production processes, changing inputs,
changing output rates, or even closing the facility. This analysis focuses on the last two
options because they appear to be the most viable for manufacturing facilities, at least in the
near term. Because the regulation will affect a large segment of the steel mill products
market, we expect upward pressure on prices as integrated producers reduce output rates in
response to higher costs. Higher prices reduce quantity demanded and output for each market
product, leading to changes in profitability of batteries, facilities, and firms. These market
and industry adjustments will also determine the social costs of the regulation and its
distribution across stakeholders (producers and consumers).
To estimate these impacts, the economic modeling approach described in Appendix A
was operationalized in a multiple spreadsheet model. This model characterizes those
producers and consumers identified in Figure 4-1 and their behavioral responses to the
imposition of the regulatory compliance costs. These costs are expressed per ton of steel mill
product and serve as the input to the economic model, or "cost-shifters" of the baseline
supply curves at affected facilities.
In addition to the "cost-shifters" the other major factors that influence behavioral
adjustments in the model are the supply and demand elasticities of producers and consumers.
Table 4-2 presents the key elasticity parameters used in the model. Specific functional forms
are presented in Appendix A. Given these costs and supply and demand elasticities, the
model determines a new equilibrium solution in a comparative static approach. The
following sections provide the Agency's estimates of the resulting economic impacts for the
proposed rule.
4.3.1 Market-Level Impacts
The increased cost of steel mill product production due to the regulation is expected
to slightly increase the price of steel mill products and reduce their production and
consumption from 1997 baseline levels. As shown in Table 4-3, the regulation is projected to
4-7
-------
Table 4-2. Supply and Demand Elasticities Used in Analysis
Market
Furnace Coke
Domestic
Foreign
Steel Mill Products
Domestic
Foreign
Supply Elasticity
Calculated
3.0a
1.0b
1.0b
Demand Elasticity
Derived
-0.3a
-0.59C
-1.0b
a Graham, Thorpe, and Hogan (1999).
b Assumed value.
0 Weighted average of product demand elasticities estimated in econometric analysis.
increase the price of steel mill products less than 0.01 percent, or $0.01 per short ton.
Because the change in the demand for furnace coke is very small, the entire market impact is
absorbed by a single battery that is assumed to have a constant marginal cost. As a result,
market output of furnace coke declines slightly but the market price remains unchanged. See
Appendix B for a detailed description of the step wise supply function for the furnace coke
market. This in turn leads to no change in the level of imports (or exports) of furnace coke.
As expected, directly affected steel mill product output declines across integrated producers,
while supply from domestic and foreign producers not subject to the regulation increases.
The resulting net declines are slight across both products (i.e., less than 0.01 percent decline
in market output).
4.3.2 Industry-Level Impacts
Industry revenue, costs, and profitability change as prices and production levels adjust
to increased production costs. As shown in Table 4-4, the economic model projects that
profits for directly affected integrated iron and steel producers will decrease by $5.2 million,
or 0.4 percent. In addition, the Agency projects no change in profits for furnace coke plants
because the small reduction in output comes from the marginal coke battery, which by
assumption has zero profit in baseline. Those domestic suppliers not subject to the regulation
experience small gains; nonintegrated steel mills (i.e., mini-mills) increase profits by $0.6
million.
4-8
-------
Table 4-3. Market-Level Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel MACT:
1997
Changes From Baseline
Steel Mill Products
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Integrated producers
Nonintegrated steel mills3
Imports
Furnace Coke
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Imports
Baseline
$639.74
137,015
105,858
62,083
43,775
31,157
$107.36
11,710
7,944
3,765
Absolute
$0.01
-1.6
-2.3
-3.1
0.9
0.6
$0.00
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Percent
0.01%
<-0.01%
<-0.01%
<-0.01%
0.02%
O.02%
0.00%b
<-0.01%
<-0.01%
0.00%b
a Includes mini-mills.
b The market for furnace coke is virtually unaffected by the regulation. The entire market impact is absorbed
by a single battery that is assumed to have a constant marginal cost. As a result, market output of furnace
coke declines slightly but the market price remains unchanged.
4.3.2.1 Changes in Profitability
For integrated steel mills, operating profits decline by $5.2 million. This is the net
:P pffprts'
result of three effects:
Net decrease in revenue ($1.1 million): Steel mill product revenue decreases as a
result of reductions in output. However, these losses were mitigated by increased
revenues from furnace coke supplied to the market as a result of decreased
internal demand for captive coke production for selected integrated iron and steel
plants.
Net decrease in production costs ($1.9 million): Reduction in steel mill product
and market coke production costs occur as output declines.
4-9
-------
Table 4-4. National-Level Industry Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
MACT: 1997
Integrated Iron and Steel Mills
Total revenues ($106/yr)
Steel mill products
Market coke operations
Total costs ($106/yr)
Control costs
Steel production
Captive coke production
Market coke production
Production costs
Steel production
Captive coke production
Market coke consumption
Market coke production
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Iron and steel facilities (#)
Coke batteries (#)
Employment (FTEs)
Coke Producers (Merchant Only)
Furnace
Revenues ($106/yr)
Costs ($106/yr)
Control costs
Production costs
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Coke batteries (#)
Employment (FTEs)
Nonintegrated Steel Mills3
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Baseline
$40,223.9
$39,716.9
$507.0
$38,834.7
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$38,834.7
$36,290.1
$942.5
$1,167.8
$434.3
$1,389.1
20
37
67,198
$366.5
$318.5
$0.0
$318.5
$48.0
13
840
NA
Changes
Absolute
-$1.09
-$1.21
$0.12
$4.07
$5.94
$5.94
$0.00
$0.00
-$1.88
-$1.87
-$0.12
-$0.01
$0.12
-$5.16
0
0
-6
-$0.15
-$0.15
$0.00
-$0.15
$0.00
0
-1
$0.6
From Baseline
Percent
<0.01%
0.01%
0.02%
0.01%
NA
NA
NA
NA
<-0.01%
-0.01%
-0.01%
<-0.01%
0.03%
-0.37%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.01%
-0.04%
-0.05%
NA
-0.05%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.12%
NA
a Includes mini-mills.
4-10
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Increase in control costs ($5.9 million): The costs of captive production of furnace coke
increase as a result of regulatory controls.
Industry-wide profits for merchant furnace coke producers are projected to remain
unchanged as a result of the following:
• Decreases in revenue ($0.2 million): Reductions in output result in decreased
revenue.
• Reduction in production costs ($0.2 million): Reduction in coke production costs
occurs as output declines.
Additional distributional impacts of the rule within each producer segment are not
necessarily apparent from the reported decline or increase in their aggregate operating profits.
The regulation creates both gainers and losers within each industry segment based on the
distribution of compliance costs across facilities. As shown in Table 4-5, a substantial set of
directly affected integrated iron and steel facilities (i.e., 16 plants, or 80 percent) are projected
to become more profitable with the regulation with a total gain of $0.5 million as they benefit
from higher steel mill product prices. However, four integrated mills are projected to
experience a total profit loss of $5.6 million. These integrated plants have higher per-unit
costs ($0.41 per ton) relative to the facilities that experience profit gains.
4.3.2.2 Facility Closures
EPA estimates no integrated iron or steel facility is likely to prematurely close as a
result of the regulation. In addition, no furnace coke batteries are projected to cease
operations as a result of decreased demand for furnace coke resulting from the regulation.
4.3.2.3 Changes in Employment
As a result of decreased output levels, industry employment is projected to decrease
by less than 0.5 percent, or seven full-time equivalents (FTEs), with the regulation. This is
the net result of employment losses for integrated iron and steel mills totaling six FTEs and
merchant coke plants of one FTEs. Although EPA projects increases in output for producers
not subject to the rule, which would likely lead to increases in employment, the Agency did
not develop quantitative estimates for this analysis.
4-11
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Table 4-5. Distribution Impacts of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel MACT
Across Directly Affected Producers: 1997
With Regulation
Integrated Iron and Steel Mills
Facilities (#)
Steel production
Total (103 tpy)
Average ($/ton)
Steel compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average ($/ton)
Coke production
Total (103 tpy)
Average ($/ton)
Coke compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average ($/ton)
Change in operating profit ($106)
Coke Plants (Merchant Only)
Furnace
Batteries (#)
Production (103 tpy)
Total (103 tpy)
Average ($/ton)
Compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average ($/ton)
Change in operating profit ($106)
Increased
Profits
16
47,840
2,990
$0.12
$0.00
12,196
762
$0.00
$0.00
$0.48
0
2,042
204
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Decreased
Profits
4
14,242
3,561
$5.82
$0.41
2,687
672
$0.00
$0.00
-$5.64
0
0
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Closure
0
0
0
$0
$0.00
0
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0
0
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total
20
62,083
3,104
$5.94
$0.10
14,882
744
$0.00
$0.00
-$5.16
10
2,042
204
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
4-12
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4.3.3 Social Cost
The social impact of a regulatory action is traditionally measured by the change in
economic welfare that it generates. The social costs of the proposed rule will be distributed
across consumers and producers alike. Consumers experience welfare impacts due to
changes in market prices and consumption levels associated with the rule. Producers
experience welfare impacts resulting from changes in profits corresponding with the changes
in production levels and market prices. However, it is important to emphasize that this
measure does not include benefits that occur outside the market, that is, the value of reduced
levels of air pollution with the regulation.
The national compliance cost estimates are often used as an approximation of the
social cost of the rule. The engineering analysis estimated annual costs of $5.94 million. In
this case, the burden of the regulation falls solely on the affected facilities that experience a
profit loss exactly equal to these cost estimates. Thus, the entire loss is a change in producer
surplus with no change (by assumption) in consumer surplus. This is typically referred to as
a "full-cost absorption" scenario in which all factors of production are assumed to be fixed
and firms are unable to adjust their output levels when faced with additional costs.
In contrast, the economic analysis conducted by the Agency accounts for behavioral
responses by producers and consumers to the regulation (i.e., shifting costs to other economic
agents). This approach results in a social cost estimate that may differ from the engineering
estimate and also provides insights on how the regulatory burden is distributed across
stakeholders. As shown in Table 4-6, the economic model estimates the total social cost of
the rule to be $5.94 million. Although society reallocates resources as a result of the
increased cost of steel mill product production, only a very small difference occurs.
In the final product markets, higher market prices lead to consumers of steel mill
products experiencing losses of $1.7 million. Although integrated iron and steel producers
are able to pass on a limited amount of cost increases to their final consumers (e.g.,
automotive manufacturers and the construction industry), the increased costs result in a net
decline in profits at integrated mills of $5.2 million.
In the coke industry, furnace coke profits at merchant plants are projected to remain
unchanged, as reductions in output come from the marginal merchant furnace coke battery.
Lastly, domestic producers not subject to the regulation (i.e., nonintegrated steel mills and
4-13
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Table 4-6. Distribution of the Social Costs of the Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
MACT: 1997
Change in Consumer Surplus ($106/yr) -$1.72
Steel mill product consumers -$1.72
Domestic -$1.65
Foreign -$0.08
Change in Producer Surplus ($106/yr) -$4.22
Domestic producers -$4.61
Integrated iron and steel mills -$5.16
Nonintegrated steel mills3 $0.55
Furnace coke (merchant only) $0.00
Foreign producers $0.39
Iron and steel $0.39
Furnace coke $0.00
Social Costs of the Regulation (S106/yr) -$5.94
a Includes mini-mills.
electric furnaces) as well as foreign producers experience unambiguous gains because they
benefit from increases in market price under both alternatives.
4-14
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SECTION 5
SMALL BUSINESS IMPACTS
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) of 1980 as amended in 1996 by the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA) generally requires an agency to
prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis of a rule unless the agency certifies that the rule will
not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. Small
entities include small businesses, small organizations, and small governmental jurisdictions.
For purposes of assessing the impacts of the proposed rule on small entities, a small
entity is defined as: (1) a small business according to SBA size standards for NAICS code
331111 (i.e., Iron and Steel Mills) of 1,000 or fewer employees; (2) a small governmental
jurisdiction that is a government of a city, county, town, school district or special district with
a population of less than 50,000; and (3) a small organization that is any not-for-profit
enterprise that is independently owned and operated and is not dominant in its field.
Based on the above definition of small entities and the company-specific employment
data from Section 2 of this report, the Agency has determined that no small businesses within
this source category would be subject to this proposed rule. Therefore, because this proposed
rule will not impose any requirements or additional costs on small entities, this action will
not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
5-1
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Industry Responses to Information Collection Request (ICR) Survey. Database
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APPENDIX A
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
This appendix provides the methodology for analyzing the economic impacts of the
proposed MACT standard for coke ovens. Implementation of this methodology provided the
economic data and supporting information that EPA requires to support its regulatory
determination. This approach is firmly rooted in microeconomic theory and the methods
developed for earlier EPA studies to operationalize this theory. The Agency employed a
computerized market model of the coke, steel mill products, and iron castings industries to
estimate the behavioral responses to the imposition of regulatory costs and, thus, the
economic impacts of the proposed standard. The market model captures the linkages
between these industries through changes in equilibrium prices and quantities. The same
model is used to evaluate the economic impact of the proposed integrated iron and steel
facilities MACT and iron foundries MACT to ensure consistency across the EIAs for these
MACT standards.
This methodology section describes the conceptual approach selected for this EIA.
For each product market included in the analysis, EPA derived facility-level supply and
demand functions that are able to account for the behavioral response and market
implications of the regulation's costs. Finally, this appendix presents an overview of the
specific functional forms that constitute the Agency's computerized market model.
A.I Overview of Economic Modeling Approach
In general, the EIA methodology needs to allow EPA to consider the effect of the
different regulatory alternatives. Several types of economic impact modeling approaches
have been developed to support regulatory development. These approaches can be viewed as
varying along two modeling dimensions:
• the scope of economic decision making accounted for in the model, and
• the scope of interaction between different segments of the economy.
A-l
-------
Each of these dimensions was considered in selecting the approach used to model the
economic impact of the proposed coke regulation. Bingham and Fox (1999) provide a useful
summary of these dimensions as they relate to modeling the outcomes of environmental
regulations.
For this analysis, prices and quantities are determined in perfectly competitive
markets for furnace coke, foundry coke, finished steel mill products, and iron castings. The
Agency analyzed the impact of the proposed regulation using a market modeling approach
that incorporates behavioral responses in a multiple-market partial equilibrium model.
Multiple-market partial equilibrium analysis accounts for the interactions between coke, steel
mill product, and iron castings markets into the EIA to better estimate the proposed
regulation's impact. The modeling technique is to link a series of standard partial
equilibrium models by specifying the interactions between the supply and demand for
products and then solving for changes in prices and quantities across all markets
simultaneously.
Figure A-l summarizes the market interactions included in the Agency's EIA
modeling approach. Changes in the equilibrium price and quantity due to control costs on
coke batteries were estimated simultaneously in four linked markets:
• market for furnace coke,
• market for foundry coke,
• market for steel mill products, and
• market for iron castings.
As described in Section 2 of this EIA report, many captive coke plants supply their
excess furnace coke to the market. Merchant coke plants and foreign imports account for the
remaining supply to the furnace coke market. Furnace coke produced at captive coke plants
and shipped directly to integrated iron and steel mills owned by their parent companies does
not directly enter the market for furnace coke. However, compliance costs incurred by these
captive, or "in-house," furnace coke batteries indirectly affect the furnace coke market
through price and output changes in the steel mill products market.
The market demand for furnace coke is derived from integrated mills producing steel
mill products. Integrated iron and steel mills that need more coke than their captive batteries
can produce will purchase furnace coke from the market. Integrated mills' market demand
A-2
-------
Consumers of Steel
Mill Products
Imports
Exports
Imports
Exports
'
Integrated Iron
and Steel Mills
k
• Finishing Mills j
• Steelmaking Furnace ]T^
• Blast Furnace |
T
i
Captive Coke Plants \^
1
Figure A-l. Market Linkages Modeled in the Economic Impact Analysis
for furnace coke depends on their production levels as influenced by the market for steel mill
products. Steel mill products are supplied by three sources: integrated iron and steel mills,
nonintegrated steel mills (primarily mini-mills), and imports. Domestic consumers of steel
mill products and exports account for the market demand.
As described in Section 2 of this EIA report, in the analysis baseline of 1997,
merchant plants are the sole suppliers of foundry coke to the market. The U.S. International
Trade Commission (2000) has documented an increasing trend in foreign imports of foundry
coke from China; however, these Chinese imports represented less than 1 percent of U.S.
foundry coke consumption in 1997. Moreover, the USITC report indicates that the inferior
quality of imported foundry coke and future environmental regulations being proposed in
China may limit the market penetration in the United States. Consumers of foundry coke
include foundries with cupolas that produce iron castings that are modeled using a single,
representative demand curve.
A-3
-------
In addition to furnace and foundry coke, merchant and captive coke plants sell a by-
product referred to as "other coke" that is purchased as a fuel input by cement plants,
chemical plants, and nonferrous smelters. Because "other coke" is a by-product and
represented only 2 percent of U.S. coke production in 1997 it is not formally characterized by
supply and demand in the market model. Revenues from this product are accounted for by
assuming its volume is a constant proportion of the total amount of coke produced by a
battery and sold at a constant price.
A.2 Conceptual Market Modeling Approach
This section examines the impact of the regulations on the production costs of coke
for affected facilities, both merchant and captive. It provides an overview of the basic
economic theory of the effect of regulations on facility production decisions and the
concomitant effect on market outcomes. Following the OAQPS Economic Analysis Resource
Document (EPA, 1999), we employed standard concepts in microeconomics to model the
supply of affected products and the impacts of the regulations on production costs and the
operating decisions. The approach relies heavily on previous economic analyses, employs a
comparative static approach, and assumes certainty in relevant markets. The three main
elements of the analysis are regulatory effects on the manufacturing facility, market
responses, and facility-market interactions. The remainder of this section describes each of
these main elements.
A. 2.1 Facility-level Responses to Control Costs
Individual plant-level production decisions were modeled to develop the market
supply and demand for key industry segments in the analysis. Production decisions were
modeled as intermediate-run decisions, assuming that the plant size, equipment, and
technologies are fixed. For example, the production decision typically involves (1) whether a
firm with plant and equipment already in place purchases inputs to produce output and (2) at
what capacity utilization the plant should operate. A profit-maximizing firm will operate
existing capital as long as the market price for its output exceeds its per-unit variable
production costs, since the facility will cover not only the cost of its variable inputs but also
part of its capital costs. Thus, in the short run, a profit-maximizing firm will not pass up an
opportunity to recover even part of its fixed investment in plant and equipment.
The existence of fixed production factors gives rise to diminishing returns to those
fixed factors and, along with the terms under which variable inputs are purchased, defines the
A-4
-------
upward-sloping form of the marginal cost (supply) curve employed for this analysis. Figure
A-2 illustrates this derivation of the supply function at an individual mill based on the
classical U-shaped cost structure. The MC curve is the marginal cost of production, which
intersects the facility's average variable (avoidable) cost curve (AVC) and its average total
cost curve (ATC) at their respective minimum points. The supply function is that portion of
the marginal cost curve bounded by the minimum economically feasible production rate (qm)
and the technical capacity (qM). A profit-maximizing producer will select the output rate
where marginal revenue equals price, that is, at [P*, q*]. If market price falls below ATC,
then the firm's best response is to cease production because total revenue does not cover total
costs of production.
Figure A-2. Product Supply Function at Facility
Now consider the effect of the proposed regulation and the associated compliance
costs. These fall into one of two categories: avoidable variable and avoidable nonvariable.
These proposed costs are characterized as avoidable because a firm can choose to cease
operation of the facility and, thus, avoid incurring the costs of compliance. The variable
control costs include the operating and maintenance costs of the controls, while the
nonvariable costs include compliance capital equipment. Figure A-3 illustrates the effect of
A-5
-------
MC'
$/q
pm'
p rn
qm qm/
,M
q/t
Figure A-3. Effect of Compliance Costs on Product Supply Function at Facility
these additional costs on the facility supply function. The facility's AVC and MC curves
shift upward (to AVC' and MC') by the per-unit variable compliance costs. In addition, the
nonvariable compliance costs increase total avoidable costs and, thus, the vertical distance
between ATC' and AVC'. The facility's supply curve shifts upward with marginal costs and
the new (higher) minimum operating level (q) is determined by a new (higher) ps.
Next consider the effect of compliance costs on the derived demand for inputs at the
regulated facility. Integrated iron and steel mills are market demanders of furnace coke,
while foundries with cupola furnaces are market demanders of foundry coke. We employ
similar neoclassical analysis to that above to demonstrate the effect of the regulation on the
demand for market coke inputs, both furnace and foundry. Figure A-4 illustrates the derived
demand curve for coke inputs. Each point on the derived demand curve equals the
A-6
-------
$/qv
D,
D
Figure A-4. Derived Demand Curve for Coke Inputs
willingness to pay for the corresponding marginal input. This is typically referred to as the
input's value of marginal product (VMP), which is equal to the price of the output (P) less the
per-unit compliance cost (c) times the input's "marginal physical product" (MPP), which is
the incremental output attributable to the incremental inputs. If, as assumed in this analysis,
the input-output relationship between the market coke input and the final product (steel mill
products or iron castings) is strictly fixed, then the VMP of the market coke is constant and
the derived demand curve is horizontal with the constant VMP as the vertical intercept, as
shown in Figure A-4. Ignoring any effect on the output price for now, an increase in
regulatory costs will lower the VMP of all inputs leading to a downward shift in the derived
demand in Figure A-4 from Dy to Dy .
A.2.2 Market Effects
To evaluate the market impacts, the economic analysis assumes that prices and
quantities are determined in a competitive market (i.e., individual facilities have negligible
power over the market price and thus take the price as "given" by the market). As shown in
Figure A-5(a), under perfect competition, market prices and quantities are determined by the
intersection of market supply and demand curves. The initial baseline scenario consists of a
market price and quantity (P, Q) that is determined by the downward-sloping market demand
A-7
-------
qa
Affected Facilities
P'
P
S'
Affected Facilities
+ p
= p
Unaffected Facilities
a) Baseline Equilibrium
Market
P'
P
J I
u q'u
Unaffected Facilities
b) With-Regulation Equilibrium
Figure A-5. Market Equilibrium without and with Regulation
DM
Q
SM7 SM/
Q' Q
Market
A-8
-------
curve (DM) and the upward-sloping market supply curve (SM) that reflects the horizontal
summation of the individual producers' supply curves.
Now consider the effect of the regulation on the baseline scenario as shown in Figure
A-5(b). In the baseline scenario without the proposed standards, at the projected price, P, the
industry would produce total output, Q, with affected facilities producing the amount qa and
unaffected facilities accounting for Q minus qa, or qu. The regulation raises the production
costs at affected facilities, causing their supply curves to shift upward from Sa to Sa' and the
market supply curve to shift upward to SM/. At the new with-regulation equilibrium with the
regulation, the market price increases from P to P' and market output (as determined from the
market demand curve, DM) declines from Q to Q'. This reduction in market output is the net
result from reductions at affected facilities and increases at unaffected facilities. Unaffected
facilities do not incur the increased costs due to regulation so their response to higher product
prices is to increase production. Foreign suppliers (i.e., imports), which also do not face
higher costs, will respond in the same manner as these unaffected producers.
The above description is typical of the expected market effects for final product
markets. The proposed regulation will affect the costs of producing steel mill products by
increasing the market price of furnace coke and the cost of producing captive furnace coke.
The increase in the market price and captive production costs for furnace coke result in an
upward shift in the supply functions of integrated iron and steel mills, while nonintegrated
and foreign supplier are unaffected. Additionally, the proposed regulation will affect the
costs of producing iron castings by increasing the market price of foundry coke. The increase
in market price results in an upward shift in supply functions of foundries operating cupola
furnaces, while foundries operating electric furnaces are unaffected.
However, there are additional impacts on the furnace and foundry coke markets
related to their derived demand as inputs to either the production of steel mill products or
iron castings. Figure A-6 illustrates, under perfect competition, the baseline scenario where
the market quantity and price of the final steel mill product or iron casting, Qx(Qx0, Px0), are
determined by the intersection of the market demand curve (Dx) and the market supply curve
(Sx), and the market quantity and price of furnace or foundry coke, Qy(Qy0, Py0), are
determined by the intersection of the market demand curve (Dy) and market supply curve (Sy).
Given the derived demand for coke, the demanders of coke, Qy, are the individual facilities
that purchase coke for producing their final products (i.e., integrated steel mills in the case of
furnace coke or foundries with cupola furnaces in the case of foundry coke).
A-9
-------
$/Qv
QXI Qxo
(a) Market for single steel mill product or iron casting, Q
QJt
P = P
ry3 ryO
y1 y3 y2 yO
(b) Market for coke input, Q
Q/t
Figure A-6. Market Equilibria With and Without Compliance Costs
A-10
-------
Imposing the regulations increases the costs of producing coke and, thus, the final
product, shifting the market supply functions for both commodities upward to Sx' and Sy',
respectively. The supply shift in the final product market causes the market quantity to fall to
Qxl and the market price to rise to Pxl in the new equilibrium. In the market for coke, the
reduced production of the final product causes a downward shift in the demand curve (Dy)
with an unambiguous reduction in coke production, but the direction of the change in market
price is determined by the relative magnitude of the demand and supply shift. If the
downward demand effect dominates, the price will fall (e.g., Pyl); however, if the upward
supply effect dominates, the price will rise (e.g., Py2). Otherwise, if the effects just offset
each other, the price remains unchanged (e.g., Py3 = Py0).
A. 2.3 Facility-Level Responses to Compliance Costs and New Market Prices
In evaluating the market effects, we must distinguish between the initial effect of the
regulations and the net effect after all markets have adjusted. The profit-maximizing
behavior of firms, as described above, may lead to changes in output that, when aggregated
across all producers, lead to changes in the market-clearing price and feedback on the firms to
alter their decisions. These adjustments are characterized as a simultaneous interaction of
producers, consumers, and markets. Thus, to evaluate the facility-market outcomes, the
analysis must go beyond the initial effect of the regulation and estimate the net effect after
markets have fully adjusted.
Given changes in the market prices and costs, each facility will elect to either
• continue to operate, adjusting production and input use based on new revenues
and costs, or
• cease production at the facility if total revenues do not exceed total costs.
This decision can be extended to those facilities with multiple product lines or operations
(e.g., coke batteries, blast furnaces, cupolas). If product revenues are less than product-
specific costs, then these product-lines or operations may be closed.
Therefore, after accounting for the facility-market interaction, the operating decisions
at each individual facility can be derived. These operating decisions include whether to
continue to operate the facility (i.e., closure) and, if so, the optimal production level based on
compliance costs and new market prices. The approach to modeling the facility closure
decision is based on conventional microeconomic theory. This approach compares the
ATC—which includes all cost components that fall to zero when production
A-ll
-------
discontinues—to the expected post-regulatory price. Figure A-3 illustrates this comparison.
If price falls below the ATC, total revenue would be less than the total costs. In this
situation, the owner's cost-minimizing response is to close the facility. Therefore, as long as
there is some return to the fixed factors of production— that is, some positive level of
profits— the firm is expected to continue to operate the facility.
If the firm decides to continue operations, then the facility's decision turns to the
optimal output rate. Facility and product-line closures, of course, directly translate into
reductions in output. However, the output of facilities that continue to operate will also
change depending on the relative impact of compliance costs and higher market prices.
Increases in costs will tend to reduce producers' output rates; however, some of this effect is
mitigated when prices are increased. If the market price increase more than offsets the
increase in unit costs, then even some affected facilities could respond by increasing their
production. Similarly, supply from unaffected domestic producers and foreign sources will
respond positively to changes in market prices.
A.3 Operational Economic Model
Implementation of the proposed MACT standard on coke plants will affect the costs
of coke production for captive and merchant plants across the United States. Responses at
the facility-level to these additional costs will collectively determine the market impacts of
the rule. Specifically, the cost of the regulation may induce some facilities to alter their
current level of production or to cease operations. These choices affect and, in turn are
affected by, the market price of each product. As described above, the Agency has employed
standard microeconomic concepts to model the supply and demand of each product and the
impacts of the regulation on production costs and the output decisions of facilities. The main
elements of the analysis are to
• characterize production of each product at the individual supplier and market
levels,
• characterize the demand for each product, and
• develop the solution algorithm to determine the new with-regulation equilibrium.
The following sections provide the supply and demand specifications for each product market
as implemented in the EIA model and summarize the model's solution algorithm. Demand
elasticities are presented in Table A-l.
A-12
-------
Table A-l. Supply and Demand Elasticities Used in Analysis
Market
Furnace Coke
Domestic
Foreign
Foundry Coke
Domestic
Steel Mill Products
Domestic
Foreign
Iron Castings
Domestic
Foreign
Supply Elasticity
Calculated
3.0a
Calculated
1.0b
1.0b
1.0b
1.0b
Demand Elasticity
Derived
-0.3a
Derived
-0.59C
-1.0b
-0.58C
-1.0b
a Graham, Thorpe, and Hogan (1999).
b Assumed value.
0 Weighted average of product demand elasticities estimated in econometric analysis.
A. 3.1 Furnace Coke Market
The market for furnace coke consists of supply from domestic coke plants, both
merchant and captive, and foreign imports and of demand from integrated steel mills and
foreign exports. The domestic supply for furnace coke is modeled as a stepwise supply
function developed from the marginal cost of production at individual furnace coke batteries.
The domestic demand is derived from iron and steel production at integrated mills as
determined through the market for steel mill products and coking rates for individual
batteries. The following section details the market supply and demand components for this
analysis.
A. 3.1.1 Market Supply of Furnace Coke
The market supply for furnace coke, QSc, is the sum of coke production from
merchant facilities, excess production from captive facilities (coke produced at captive
batteries less coke consumed for internal production on steel mill products), and foreign
imports, i.e.,
A-13
-------
QSc ^^ ^ ^^ /A i \
= qM + qi + qp (A-!)
where
Sc
qM = furnace coke supply from merchant plants,
Sc
ql = furnace coke supply from integrated steel mills, and
Sc
qF = furnace coke supply from foreign sources (imports).
Supply from Merchant and Captive Coke Plants. The domestic supply of furnace
coke is composed of the supply from merchant and captive coke plants reflecting plant-level
production decisions for individual coke batteries. For merchant coke plants the supply is
characterized as
Sc V^ V^ Sc
) (A.2)
where
Sc
qM = supply of foundry coke from coke battery (j) at merchant plant (1).
Alternatively, for captive coke plants the supply is characterized as the furnace coke
production remaining after internal coke requirements are satisfied for production of final
steel mill products, i.e,
SE
= MAX
E
Ss
1
(A.3)
where
Sc
the furnace coke production from captive battery (j) at integrated steel
mill (1);
A-14
-------
rI(1) = the coke rate for integrated steel mill (1), which specifies the amount of
furnace coke input per unit of final steel mill product;1 and
= supply of steel mill product from integrated mill (1).
The MAX function in Eq. (A.3) indicates that if the total captive production of furnace coke
at an integrated mill is greater than the amount of furnace coke consumption required to
produce steel mill products, then supply to the furnace coke market will equal the difference;
otherwise, the mill's supply to the furnace coke market will be zero (i.e., it only satisfies
internal requirements from its captive operations).
As stated above, the domestic supply of furnace coke is developed from plant-level
production decisions for individual coke batteries. For an individual coke battery the
marginal cost was assumed to be constant. Thus, merchant batteries supply 100 percent of a
battery's capacity to the market if the battery's marginal cost (MC) is below the market price
for furnace coke (pc), or zero if MC exceeds pc. Captive batteries first supply the furnace
coke demanded by their internal steelmaking requirements. Any excess capacity will then
supply the furnace coke market if the remaining captive battery's MC is below the market
price.
Marginal cost curves were developed for all furnace coke batteries at merchant and
captive plants in the United States as detailed in Appendix B. Production costs for a single
battery are characterized by constant marginal cost throughout the capacity range of the
battery. This yields the inverted L-shaped supply function shown in Figure A-7(a). In this
case, marginal cost (MC) equals average variable cost (AVC) and is constant up to the
production capacity given by q. The supply function becomes vertical at q because
increasing production beyond this point is not possible. The minimum economically
achievable price level is equal to p*. Below this price level, p* is less than AVC, and the
supplier would choose to shut down rather than to continue to produce coke.
'The furnace coke rate for each integrated steel mill is taken from Hogan and Koelble (1996). The coke rate is
assumed to be constant with respect to the quantity of finished steel products produced at a given mill. A
constant coke rate at each integrated mill implies a constant efficiency of use at all output levels and
substitution possibilities do not exist given the technology in place at integrated mills. Furthermore, the
initial captive share of each integrated mill's coke requirement is based on the baseline data from the EPA
survey.
A-15
-------
$/q
P*
AVC = MC
q/t
H
(a) Inverted L-Shaped Supply Function at Single-Battery Plant
$/q
MC battery 2
MC battery 1
q/t
H
(b) Inverted L-Shaped Supply Functions at Multibattery Plant
$/q
(c) Stepwise Market Supply Curve
Figure A-7. Facility-Level Supply Functions for Coke
A-16
-------
A stepwise supply function can be created for each facility with multiple batteries by
ordering production from least to highest MC batteries (see Figure A-7[b]). For captive coke
plants, the lowest cost batteries are assumed to supply internal demand, leaving the higher
cost battery(ies) to supply the market if MC
-------
DC
qF = foreign demand of furnace coke (exports).
Domestic Demand for Furnace Coke. Integrated steel mills use furnace coke as an
input to the production of finished steel products. Furnace coke demand is derived from the
final product supply decisions at the integrated steel mills. Once these final production
decisions of integrated producers have been made, the mill-specific coke input rate will
determine their individual coke requirements. Integrated steel mills satisfy their internal
requirements first through captive operations and second through market purchases. Thus,
the derived demand for furnace coke is the difference between total furnace coke required
and the captive capacity at integrated plants, i.e.,
DC -» , A ^, V^ I s Ss V^ Sc
= MAX
E
(A.6)
rI(1) = the coke rate for integrated steel mill (1), which specifies the amount of
furnace coke input per unit of final steel mill product;
= supply of steel mill product from integrated mill (1); and
Sc
qI(1 j) = the furnace coke production from captive battery (j) at integrated steel mill
(1).
The MAX function in Eq. (A.3) indicates that if the amount of furnace coke consumption
required by an integrated mill to produce steel mill products is greater than its total captive
production, then demand from the furnace coke market will equal the difference; otherwise,
the mill's demand from the furnace coke market will be zero (i.e., it fully satisfies internal
requirements from its captive operations).
Increases in the price for furnace coke will increase the per-unit costs of final steel
products and thereby shift upward the integrated mill's supply curve for steel mill products.
The shift in the supply curve decreases the market quantity of finished steel products
produced, which subsequently reduces the quantity of furnace coke consumed at integrated
mills and shifts their demand curve downward in the furnace coke market.
Foreign Demand for Furnace Coke (Exports). Foreign demand for furnace coke is
expressed as
A-18
-------
Dc
qFc = BFC (p ^ (A.7)
where
Bp = multiplicative demand parameter for the foreign furnace coke demand
equation, and
% = foreign demand elasticity for furnace coke (literature estimate = -0.3).
The multiplicative demand parameter, Bp, calibrates the foreign coke demand equation to
replicate the observed 1997 level of foreign exports based on the market price and the foreign
demand elasticity.
A. 3.2 Market for Steel Mitt Products
The market for steel mill products consists of supply from domestic mills and foreign
imports and of demand from domestic and foreign consumers. Steel mill products are
modeled as a single commodity market. The domestic supply for steel mill products includes
production from integrated mills operating blast furnaces that require furnace coke and from
nonintegrated mills that operate electric arc furnaces that do not. The proposed rule is
expected to increase the price of furnace coke that will increase the cost of production at
integrated mills and thereby shift their supply curves upward and increase the price of steel
mill products.
A. 3.2.1 Market Supply of Steel Mill Products
The market supply for steel mill products (QSs) is defined as the sum of the supply
from integrated iron and steel mills, nonintegrated mills, and foreign imports, i.e.,
QSs Ss Ss Ss ^ * ,-.x
- qi + %i + % (A. s)
where
Ss
= supply of steel mill products from integrated mills;
qNi = supply of steel mill products from the nonintegrated steel mills; and
A-19
-------
qF s = supply of steel mill products from foreign suppliers (imports).
Supply from Integrated Mills. Supply of steel mill products from integrated iron and
steel mills is the sum of individual mill production, i.e.,
SS ^ SS (A.9)
where
0 and P < 0.
Figure A-8 illustrates the theoretical supply function of Eq. (A.6). As shown, the
upward-sloping supply curve is specified over a productive range with a lower bound of zero
B2
that corresponds with a shutdown price equal to -*— and an upper bound given by the
4yf
productive capacity of q^ that is approximated by the supply parameter y,. The curvature of
the supply function is determined by the P parameter.
A-20
-------
$/q
4Y
q/t
Figure A-8. Theoretical Supply Function for Integrated Facilities and Foundries
To specify the supply function of Eq. (A.6) for this analysis, the P parameter was
computed by substituting an assumed market supply elasticity for the product (Ł), the market
price of the product (p), and the production-weighted average annual production level across
mills (q) into the following equation:
P = -
(A. 11)
The P parameter was calculated by incorporating market price and elasticity of supply values
into Eq. (A. 11). Absent empirical or literature-based estimates, the Agency assumed the
market-level supply elasticity is equal to one (i.e., a 1 percent change in price leads to a 1
percent change in output).
The intercept of the supply function, yb approximates the productive capacity and
varies across products at each facility. This parameter does not influence the facility's
production responsiveness to price changes as does the P parameter. Thus, the parameter y, is
used to calibrate the economic model so that each individual facility's supply equation
matches its baseline production data from 1997.
A-21
-------
Modeling the Impact of Compliance Costs. The effect of the regulation is to increase
the MC of producing furnace coke by the compliance costs. These costs include the variable
component consisting of the operating and maintenance costs and the nonvariable component
consisting of the control equipment required for the regulatory option. Regulatory control
costs will shift the supply curve upward for each affected facility by the annualized
compliance cost (operating and maintenance plus annualized capital) expressed per unit of
coke production. Computing the supply shift in this way treats compliance costs as the
conceptual equivalent of a unit tax on output. For coke facilities, the horizontal portion of its
supply curve will rise by the per-unit total compliance costs. In this case, the MC curve will
shift by this amount to allow the new higher reservation price for the coke battery to
appropriately reflect the fixed costs of compliance in the operating decision. At a multiple-
battery facility, the change in each battery's MC may cause a reordering of the steps because
the compliance costs vary due to the technology, age, and existing controls of individual
batteries.
Compliance costs on captive furnace coke batteries will directly affect production
decisions at integrated mills, while compliance costs on merchant furnace coke batteries will
indirectly affect these decisions through the change in the market price of furnace coke. Both
of these impacts were modeled as reducing the net price integrated mills receive for finished
steel products. Returning to the integrated mill's supply function presented in Eq. (A. 10), the
mill's production quantity with compliance costs is expressed as
Ss P
^I(l) Yl + 0
z
where
1
(A. 12)
rjS(1) = the coke rate for integrated steel mill (1), which specifies the amount of
furnace coke input per unit of steel mill product;
tt[ = the share of integrated steel mill 1's furnace coke provided by captive
batteries;
AC[ = change in per-unit cost of captive coke production at integrated steel mill 1;
(1-aj) = share of integrated steel mill 1's furnace coke provided by the market; and
Apc = change in the market price for furnace coke.
A-22
-------
The bracketed term in the denominator represents the increased costs due to the regulation,
i.e., both the direct and indirect effects. These costs, Aq and Apc, are expressed per ton of
furnace coke and weighted to reflect each integrated mill's reliance on captive versus market
furnace coke.2 The change in the cost per ton of furnace coke due to the regulation is then
multiplied by the mill's coke rate to obtain the change in the cost per ton of finished steel
product. The change in the cost per ton of finished steel product corresponds to the shift in
the affected facility supply curve shown in Figure A-5b.
Supply from Nonintegrated Mills. The supply of steel mill products from domestic
nonintegrated mills is specified as
where
ANJ = multiplicative parameter for nonintegrated mill supply equation, and
^NI = the nonintegrated mill supply elasticity for finished steel products (assumed
value =1).
Absent literature or econometric estimates of the supply elasticity, this analysis employed an
assumed value of one, which was then varied in conducting a sensitivity analysis for this
parameter. The multiplicative supply parameter is determined by backsolving Eq. (A.8),
given baseline values of the market price, supply elasticities, and quantities supplied by
nonintegrated mills and foreign mills.
Foreign Supply (Imports). The supply of steel mill products from foreign suppliers
(imports) is specified as
qFSS = AFs(ps)^ (A14)
2The captive versus market furnace coke weights are endogenous in the model because integrated mills exhaust
their captive supply of coke first; hence, changes in coke consumption typically come from changes in
market purchases, while captive consumption remains relatively constant.
A-23
-------
where
Ap = multiplicative parameter for foreign supply equation, and
^P = the foreign supply elasticity for finished steel products (assumed value = 1).
Absent literature or econometric estimates (new or existing) of the supply elasticity, this
analysis employed an assumed value of one, which was then varied in conducting a
sensitivity analysis for this parameter. The multiplicative supply parameters are determined
by backsolving Eq. (A. 8), given baseline values of the market price, supply elasticity, and
level of imports.
A. 3.2.2 Market Demand for Steel Mill Products
The market demand for finished steel mill products, QDs, is the sum of domestic and
foreign demand, i.e.,
QDs = qoS + qF°S (A. 15)
where
Ds
qD = domestic demand for finished steel mill products, and
qF s = foreign demand for steel mill products (exports).
Domestic Demand for Steel Mill Products. The domestic demand for finished steel
products is expressed as
qDDs =
where
O = multiplicative parameter for domestic steel mill products demand equation,
and
= domestic demand elasticity for steel mill products (estimate = -0.59).
A-24
-------
The multiplicative demand parameter calibrates the domestic demand equation given baseline
data on price and demand elasticity to replicate the observed 1997 level of domestic
consumption.
Foreign Demand for Steel Mill Products (Exports). Foreign demand (exports) for
finished steel products is expressed as
qFDs =BFs(ps)^ (A.17)
where
BF = multiplicative demand parameter for foreign steel mill products' demand
equation, and
% = foreign (export) demand elasticity for steel mill products (assumed value =
-1).
The multiplicative demand parameter calibrates the foreign demand equation given data on
price and demand elasticities to replicate the observed 1997 level of foreign exports.
A.3.3 Market for Foundry Coke
The market for furnace coke consists of supply from merchant coke plants and
demand from foundries operating cupola furnaces. The domestic supply for foundry coke is
modeled as a stepwise supply function developed from the marginal cost of production at
individual foundry coke batteries. The domestic demand is derived from iron castings
production at foundries operating cupola furnaces as determined through the market for iron
castings and coking rates for individual batteries. As described previously, the level of
imports and exports of foundry coke were negligible in 1997 and, thus, were not included in
the market model. The following section details the market supply and demand components
for this analysis.
A. 3.3.1 Market Supply of Foundry Coke
The market supply of foundry coke, Qsk, is composed solely of the supply from
domestic merchant plants reflecting plant-level production decisions for individual merchant
coke batteries, i.e.,
A-25
-------
Sk
qM, = E E
Merchant i
where
1 = plants
j = batteries
Sk
) = supply of foundry coke from coke battery (j) at merchant plant (1).
As was the case for furnace coke batteries, the marginal cost for an individual foundry coke
battery is assumed to be constant reflecting a fixed-coefficient technology. Marginal cost
curves were developed for all foundry coke batteries at merchant plants in the United States
as detailed in Appendix B.
Foundry coke production decisions are based on the same approach used to model
furnace coke production decisions. Thus, as illustrated previously in Figure A-7, the
production decision is determined by an inverted L-shaped supply curve that is perfectly
elastic to the capacity level of production and perfectly inelastic thereafter. Foundry coke
batteries will supply 100 percent of capacity if its marginal cost is less than market price;
otherwise, it will cease production. The regulatory costs shift each affected battery's
marginal cost upward, affecting facilities' decision to operate or shut down individual
batteries.
A. 3. 3. 2 Market Demand for Foundry Coke
The market demand for foundry coke, QDk, is composed solely of the domestic
demand by foundries operating cupola furnaces. Therefore, the foundry coke demand is
derived from the production of iron castings from cupola furnaces. Increases in the price of
foundry coke due to the regulation will lead to decreases in production of iron castings at
foundries operating cupola furnaces. Foundries operating cupola furnaces are modeled as a
single representative supplier. Thus, the demand function for foundry coke is expressed as
follows:
QDk = qc? = ICF qc^ (A.19)
A-26
-------
where
qCF = derived demand for foundry coke from domestic cupola foundries;
r^F = the coke rate for cupola foundries, which specifies the amount of foundry
coke input per unit output; and
qCF = quantity of iron castings produced at domestic cupola foundries;
Changes in production at foundries using electric arc and electric induction furnaces to
produce iron castings do not affect the demand for foundry coke.
A.3.4 Market for Iron Castings
The market for iron castings consists of supply from domestic foundries and foreign
imports and of demand from domestic and foreign consumers. Iron castings are modeled as a
single commodity market. The domestic supply for iron castings includes production from
foundries operating cupola furnaces that require foundry coke and from foundries that operate
electric furnaces that do not. The proposed rule is expected to increase the price of foundry
coke that will increase the cost of production at foundries with cupola furnaces and thereby
shift their supply curves upward and increase the price of iron castings.
A. 3. 4.1 Market Supply of Iron Castings
The market supply for iron castings, QSl, is defined as the sum of the supply from
domestic and foreign foundries. Domestic foundries are further segmented into operations
using foundry coke (referred to as cupola foundries) and operations using electric furnaces
(referred to as electric foundries). Supply is expressed as a function of the market price for
castings:
/~v Si Si Si Si , . -^
Q - qCF + qEF + qF (A.20)
where
qcp = quantity of iron castings produced at domestic cupola foundries,
qEF = supply from domestic electric foundries, and
A-27
-------
qF' = supply from foreign foundries.
Domestic Cupola Foundries. The Agency used a simple supply function (Cobb
Douglas) to characterize the production of iron castings. Compliance costs on captive
foundry coke batteries will directly affect cupola foundries' production decisions through the
change in the market price of foundry coke. This impact is modeled as reducing the net
revenue cupola foundries receive for the sales of iron castings. The aggregate cupola
foundry's supply function is expressed as
where
AŁF = multiplicative supply parameter for cupola foundry's supply equation,
TCP = the coke rate for cupola foundries, which specifies the amount of foundry
coke input per unit output,
Ap k = change in the market price for foundry coke, and
^CF = supply elasticity for iron castings (assumed value = 1).
The multiplicative supply parameter, ACT, is determined by backsolving Eq. (A.21), given
baseline values of the market price, supply elasticity, and quantity supplied.
Domestic Electric Furnace Foundries. The functional form of the supply curve for
domestic foundries with electric arc or induction furnaces is specified as
qESF = AFF(pfEF (A-22)
where
AEF = multiplicative parameter for electric foundries supply equation, and
A-28
-------
^'EF = electric foundries supply elasticity for iron castings (assumed value = 1).
The multiplicative supply parameter, AEF, is determined by backsolving Eq. (A.22), given
baseline values of the market price, supply elasticity, and quantity supplied from electric
foundries.
Foreign Supply (Imports). The functional form of the foreign supply curve for iron
castings is specified as
qFSl = AF' (p 'f (A.23)
where
AF = multiplicative parameter for foreign iron castings supply equation, and
^P = foreign supply elasticity for iron castings (assumed value =1).
The multiplicative supply parameter, AF, is determined by backsolving Eq. (A.23), given
baseline values of the market price, supply elasticities, and level of imports.
A3.4.2 Market Demand for Iron Castings
The market demand for iron castings (Q01) is the sum of domestic and foreign
demand, and it is expressed as a function of the price of iron castings:
QT)\ Di Di / * — . \
- qD + qF (A.24)
where
qD' = domestic demand for iron castings, and
qF = foreign demand (exports) for iron castings.
Domestic Demand for Iron Castings. The domestic demand for iron castings is
expressed as
A-29
-------
qDDl = B,j (p '^ (A.25)
where
BO = multiplicative parameter for domestic iron castings' demand equation, and
T|Q = domestic demand elasticity for steel mill products (estimate = -0.58).
The domestic demand elasticity for iron casting products is expected to be inelastic and
assumed to be -0.58. The multiplicative demand parameter calibrates the domestic demand
equation given baseline data on price and demand elasticity to replicate the observed 1997
level of domestic consumption.
Foreign Demand for Iron Castings. Foreign demand (exports) for iron castings is
expressed as
qFDl = Bp' (p ^ (A.26)
where
Bp = multiplicative demand parameter for foreign steel mill products' demand
equation, and
Tjp = foreign (export) demand elasticity for steel mill products (assumed value =
-1).
The foreign demand elasticity for iron casting products is assumed to be -1.0, which is more
elastic than the domestic demand elasticity of-0.58. The multiplicative demand parameter
calibrates the foreign demand equation given data on price and demand elasticities to
replicate the observed 1997 level of foreign exports.
A. 3.5 Post-regulatory Market Equilibrium Determination
Integrated steel mills and iron foundries with cupola furnaces must determine output
given the market prices for their finished products, which in turn determines their furnace and
A-30
-------
foundry coke requirements. The optimal output of finished steel products at integrated mills
also depends on the cost of producing captive furnace coke and the market price of furnace
coke; whereas iron foundries with cupolas depend on only the market price of foundry coke
because they have no captive operations. Excess production of captive furnace coke at
integrated mills will spill over into the furnace coke market; whereas an excess demand will
cause the mill to demand furnace coke from the market. For merchant coke plants, the
optimal market supply of furnace and/or foundry coke will be determined by the market price
of each coke product.
Facility responses and market adjustments can be conceptualized as an interactive
feedback process. Facilities face increased costs from the regulation, which initially reduce
output. The cumulative effect of these individual changes leads to an increase in the market
price that all producers (affected and unaffected) and consumers face, which leads to further
responses by producers (affected and unaffected) as well as consumers and thus new market
prices, and so on. The new equilibrium after imposing the regulation is the result of a series
of iterations between producer and consumer responses and market adjustments until a stable
market price arises where market supply equals market demand for each product, i.e., Qs =
QD-
The Agency employed a Walrasian auctioneer process to determine equilibrium price
(and output) associated with the increased production costs of coke. The auctioneer calls out
a market price for each product and evaluates the reactions by all participants (producers and
consumers), comparing total quantities supplied and demanded to determine the next price
that will guide the market closer to equilibrium (i.e., where market supply equals market
demand). Decision rules are established to ensure that the process will converge to an
equilibrium, in addition to specifying the conditions for equilibrium. The result of this
approach is a vector of prices with the proposed regulation that equilibrates supply and
demand for each product.
The algorithm for deriving the with-regulation equilibria in all markets can be
generalized to five recursive steps:
1. Impose the control costs for each affected facility, thereby affecting their supply
decisions.
2. Recalculate the production decisions for coke products and both final steel mill
products and iron castings across all affected facilities. The adjusted production
of steel mill products from integrated steel mills and iron castings from foundries
A-31
-------
with cupola furnaces determines the derived demand for furnace and foundry coke
through the input ratios. Therefore, the domestic demand for furnace and foundry
coke is simultaneously determined with the domestic supply of final steel mill
products and iron castings from these suppliers. After accounting for these
adjustments, recalculate the market supply of all products by aggregating across
all producers, affected and unaffected.
3. Determine the new prices via a price revision rule for all product markets.
4. Recalculate the supply functions of all facilities with the new prices, resulting in a
new market supply of each product, in addition to derived (domestic) demand for
furnace and foundry coke. Evaluate domestic demand for final steel mill products
and iron castings, as well as import supply and export demand for appropriate
products given the new prices.
5. Go to Step #3, resulting in new prices for each product. Repeat until equilibrium
conditions are satisfied in all markets (i.e., the ratio of supply to demand is
approximately one for each and every product).
A.3.6 Economic Welfare Impacts
The economic welfare implications of the market price and output changes with the
regulation can be examined using two slightly different tactics, each giving a somewhat
different insight but the same implications: changes in the net benefits of consumers and
producers based on the price changes and changes in the total benefits and costs of these
products based on the quantity changes. This analysis focuses on the first measure—the
changes in the net benefits of consumers and producers. Figure A-9 depicts the change in
economic welfare by first measuring the change in consumer surplus and then the change in
producer surplus. In essence, the demand and supply curves previously used as predictive
devices are now being used as a valuation tool.
This method of estimating the change in economic welfare with the regulation divides
society into consumers and producers. In a market environment, consumers and producers of
the good or service derive welfare from a market transaction. The difference between the
maximum price consumers are willing to pay for a good and the price they actually pay is
referred to as "consumer surplus." Consumer surplus is measured as the area under the
demand curve and above the price of the product. Similarly, the difference between the
minimum price producers are willing to accept for a good and the price they actually receive
is referred to as "producer surplus" or profits. Producer surplus is measured as the area above
the supply curve and below the price of the product. These areas can be thought of as
A-32
-------
$/Q
Q
Q/t
(a) Change in Consumer Surplus with Regulation
$/Q
Q
Q/t
(b) Change in Producer Surplus with Regulation
$/Q
Q2 Q1 Q/t
(c) Net Change in Economic Welfare with Regulation
Figure A-9. Economic Welfare Changes with Regulation: Consumer and Producer
Surplus
A-33
-------
consumers' net benefits of consumption and producers' net benefits of production,
respectively.
In Figure A-9, baseline equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the demand curve, D,
and supply curve, S. Price is P[ with quantity Q,. The increased cost of production with the
regulation will cause the market supply curve to shift upward to S'. The new equilibrium
price of the product is P2. With a higher price for the product, there is less consumer welfare,
all else being unchanged as real incomes are reduced. In Figure A-9(a), area A represents the
dollar value of the annual net loss in consumers' benefits with the increased price. The
rectangular portion represents the loss in consumer surplus on the quantity still consumed,
Q2, while the triangular area represents the foregone surplus resulting from the reduced
quantity consumed, Ci-Q2.
In addition to the changes in consumer welfare, producer welfare also changes with
the regulation. With the increase in market price, producers receive higher revenues on the
quantity still purchased, Q2. In Figure A-9(b), area B represents the increase in revenues due
to this increase in price. The difference in the area under the supply curve up to the original
market price, area C, measures the loss in producer surplus, which includes the loss
associated with the quantity no longer produced. The net change in producer welfare is
represented by area B-C.
The change in economic welfare attributable to the compliance costs of the regulation
is the sum of consumer and producer surplus changes, that is, - (A) + (B-C). Figure A-9(c)
shows the net (negative) change in economic welfare associated with the regulation as area
D. However, this analysis does not include the benefits that occur outside the market (i.e.,
the value of the reduced levels of air pollution with the regulation). Including this benefit
may reduce the net cost of the regulation or even make it positive.
A-34
-------
APPENDIX B
DEVELOPMENT OF COKE BATTERY COST FUNCTIONS
This appendix outlines EPA's method for estimating 1997 baseline production costs
for coke batteries. The Agency used a coke production cost model developed in support of
the 1993 MACT on coke ovens. EPA's Technical Approach for a Coke Production Cost
Model (EPA, 1979) provides a more detailed description of this model. For this analysis, the
model was updated with reported technical characteristics of coke batteries from the
Information Collection Request (ICR) survey responses and available price data. In addition,
the Agency incorporated estimates of MACT pollution abatement costs developed for the
1993 MACT on coke ovens (EPA, 1991).
B.I Variable Costs
Coke batteries use four variable inputs during the manufacturing process—
metallurgical coal, labor, energy, and other materials/supplies. Metallurgical coal is
essentially the only raw material used in the production of coke. Labor transports and
delivers the raw materials as well as final products. Coke ovens and auxiliary equipment
consume energy and supplies during the production process and periodic maintenance and
repair of the coke batteries.
Coke production requires a fixed amount of each variable input per ton of coke, and
these inputs are not substitutable. Accordingly, the total variable cost function is linear in the
output and input prices, or, in other words, the average variable cost function is independent
of output. Therefore, the average variable cost function (expressed in dollars per short ton of
coke) can be written as
AVC = AV_CI»PC + AV_LI-w + AV_EI-Pe + AV_OI»P0 (B.I)
where AV_CI, AV_LI, AV_EI, and AV_OI are the fixed requirements per ton of coke of
metallurgical coal, labor, energy, and other material and supplies. Pc, w, Pe, and P0 are the
prices of each variable input, respectively. As shown above, the contribution of each variable
input to the per-unit coke cost is equal to the average variable input (fixed requirement of the
input per ton of coke) times the price of the input. For example, the contribution of labor to
B-l
-------
the cost per ton of coke (AV_LI) is equal to the labor requirement per ton of coke times the
price of labor (w).
The variable costs above include those costs associated with by- and co-product
recovery operations associated with the coke battery. To more accurately reflect the costs
specific to coke production, the Agency subtracted by- and co-product revenues/credits from
Eq. (B.I). By-products include tar and coke oven gas among others, while co-products
include coke breeze and other industrial coke. Following the same fixed coefficient
approach, these revenues or credits (expressed per ton of coke) are derived for each recovered
product at the coke battery by multiplying the appropriate yield (recovered product per ton of
coke) by its price or value. The variable cost components and by-/co-product credits are
identified below.
B. 1.1 Metallurgical Coal (A VCI, PJ
The ICR survey responses provided the fixed input requirement for metallurgical coal
at each battery. Based on the responses from the survey, U.S. coke producers require an
average of 1.36 tons of coal per ton of coke produced. This fixed input varies by type of
producer. Integrated, or captive, producers require an average of 1.38 tons of coal per ton of
coke produced, while merchant producers require an average of 1.31 tons of coal per ton of
coke produced. The U.S. Department of Energy (1998) provides state-level coal price data
for metallurgical coal. For each coke battery, EPA computed the cost of coal per short ton of
coke by multiplying its input ratio times the appropriate state or regional price. As shown in
Table B-l, the average cost of metallurgical coal per ton of coke in 1997 was $66.27 for
captive producers and $63.77 for merchant producers.
B.I.2 Labor (AVLI, w)
The cost model provides an estimate of the fixed labor requirement for operation,
maintenance, and supervision labor at each battery. The Agency used these estimates to
derive the average variable labor cost for each individual battery given its technical
characteristics and the appropriate state-level wage rates obtained from the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics (1998). As shown in Table B-2, average labor costs per ton of coke are
significantly lower for captive producers (e.g., $15.74 per ton of coke) relative to merchant
producers (e.g., $27.21 per ton of coke). Captive batteries are typically larger capacity
batteries and therefore require fewer person-hours per ton of coke.
B-2
-------
Table B-l. Metallurgical Coal Costs by Producter Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$66.27
$59.25
$77.56
Merchant
18
$63.77
$56.18
$70.34
All Coke Batteries
58
$65.49
$56.18
$77.56
Table B-2. Labor Costs by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$15.74
$8.62
$31.04
Merchant
18
$27.21
$10.48
$42.04
All Coke Batteries
58
$19.30
$8.62
$42.04
B.I.3 Energy (AVEI, PJ
The cost model estimates the fixed energy requirements (i.e., electricity, steam, and
water) for each battery. These estimates are used to derive the energy costs per ton of coke
for each battery. Captive producers have a lower electricity requirement (i.e., 47.58 kWh per
ton of coke) relative to merchant producers (i.e., 50.96 kWh per ton of coke). As shown in
Table B-3, the average energy cost per ton of coke across all coke batteries is $4.36. Average
energy costs per ton of coke are lower for captive producers (e.g., $4.19 per ton of coke)
relative to merchant producers (e.g., $4.71 per ton of coke). This difference reflects lower
state/regional electricity prices in regions where captive batteries produce coke.
B-3
-------
Table B-3. Energy Costs by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$4.19
$3.00
$10.59
Merchant
18
$4.71
$3.13
$10.59
All Coke Batteries
58
$4.36
$3.00
$10.59
B. 1.4 Other Materials and Supplies (A VOI, PJ
The fixed requirements for other materials and supplies associated with the
production of coke include
• chemicals,
• maintenance materials,
• safety and clothing, and
• laboratory and miscellaneous supplies.
As shown in Table B-4, the cost model estimates the average cost for these items across all
coke batteries is $4.02 per short ton of coke, ranging from $2.73 to $6.56 per ton of coke.
These costs vary by producer type, with merchant producers averaging $4.82 per ton of coke
versus captive producers who average $3.66 per ton of coke.
B. 1.5 By- and Co-product Credits
In addition to the variable cost inputs described above, by- and co-products are
associated with the manufacture of coke products. Therefore, the Agency modified Eq. (B.I)
by subtracting (1) revenues generated from the sale of by-/co-products and (2) credits
associated with using of coke oven gas as an energy input in the production process. The
following cost function adjustments were made to the engineering model to incorporate by-
and co-products into the cokemaking cost function:
B-4
-------
Table B-4. Other Costs by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$3.66
$2.73
$5.70
Merchant
18
$4.82
$2.79
$6.56
All Coke Batteries
58
$4.02
$2.73
$6.56
• Coke breeze—ICR survey responses provided coke breeze output per ton of coke
for each battery. The U.S. International Trade Commission (1994) provided data
on market prices of coke breeze.
• Other industrial coke—ICR survey responses provided other industrial coke
output per ton of coke for each battery. The U.S. International Trade Commission
(1994) provided data on market prices of other industrial coke.
• Coke oven gas—Based on secondary sources and discussions with engineers,
furnace coke producers were assumed to produce 8,500 ft3 per ton of coal, and
foundry producers were assumed to produce 11,700 ft3 per ton of coal (Lankford
etal., 1985; EPA, 1988).
As shown in Table B-5, the average by-/co-product credit is $16.55 per ton of coke for
captive producers and $21.31 per ton of coke for merchant producers.
B.2 MACT/LAER Pollution Abatement Costs
The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments mandated two levels of control for emissions
from coke ovens. The first control level, referred to as MACT, specified limits for leaking
doors, lids, offtakes, and time of charge. This level of control was to be attained by 1995.
The second level of control, Lowest Achievable Emissions Rate (LAER), specified more
stringent limits for leaking doors and offtakes. Estimates of the MACT and LAER costs
associated with these controls were developed for EPA's Controlling Emissions from By-
Product Coke Oven Charging, Door Leaks, and Topside Leaks: An Economic Impacts
B-5
-------
Table B-5. By-/Co-Product Credits by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$16.55
$13.41
$30.95
Merchant
18
$21.31
$8.83
$48.30
All Coke Batteries
58
$18.03
$8.83
$48.30
Analysis (EPA, 1991).J Table B-6 provides summary statistics for the projected costs
associated with each level of control. However, the Agency determined that industry actions
undertaken in the interim period to comply with the MACT limits have enabled them to also
meet the LAER limits. Therefore, only the MACT-related pollution abatement costs have
been incorporated to determine the appropriate baseline costs for the 1997 economic model.
As shown in Table B-6, the average MACT pollution abatement cost across all coke batteries
is $1.27 per short ton of coke. The projected costs for captive producers range from zero to
$2.54 per ton of coke, while projected costs for merchant producers range from zero to
$10.93 per ton of coke.
B.3 Fixed Costs
Production of coke requires the combination of variable inputs outlined above with
fixed capital equipment (e.g., coke ovens and auxiliary equipment). It also includes other
overhead and administrative expenses. For each coke battery, the average fixed costs per ton
of coke can be obtained by dividing the total fixed costs (TFC) estimated by the coke model
by total battery coke production. Therefore, the average fixed cost function (expressed in
dollars per ton of coke) can be written as
AFC = (PTI + ASE +PYOH+ PLOH)/Q
(B.2)
'The Agency estimated costs for the LAER control level using two scenarios. The first (LAER-MIN) assumed
all batteries will require new doors and jambs. The second (LAER-MAX) also assumed all batteries will
require new doors and jambs and in addition assumed batteries with the most serious door leak problems
would be rebuilt. This analysis reports cost estimates for the LAER-MIN scenario.
B-6
-------
Table B-6. Pollution Abatement Costs by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
MACT
Average
Minimum
Maximum
LAER
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$0.82
$0.00
$2.54
$1.64
$0.07
$2.63
Merchant
18
$2.29
$0.00
$10.93
$2.44
$0.94
$6.07
All Coke Batteries
58
$1.27
$0.00
$10.93
$1.88
$0.07
$6.07
where
property taxes and insurance (PTI) = (0.02)»($225»Coke Capacity). This category
accounts for the fixed costs associated with property taxes and insurance for the
battery. The cost model estimates this component as 2 percent of capital cost.
Capital costs are estimated to be $225 per annual short ton of capacity based on
reported estimates of capital investment cost of a rebuilt by-product coke-making
facility (USITC, 1994). As shown in Table B-7, the average PTI cost across all
batteries is $4.47 per ton of coke.
administration and sales expense (ASE) = (0.02)»($225»Coke capacity). This
category accounts for the fixed costs associated with administrative and sales
expenses for the coke battery. The cost model also calculates this component as 2
percent of capital cost. As shown in Table B-7, the average cost across all coke
batteries for ASE is $5.02 per ton of coke.
payroll overhead (PYOH) = (0.2)»(Total labor costs). Payroll overhead is
modified as 20 percent of total labor costs. Payroll overhead is used to capture
fringe benefits because wage rates obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
exclude fringe benefits. As shown in Table B-7, the average payroll overhead is
$3.15 per ton of coke for captive producers and $5.44 per ton of coke for
merchant producers, reflecting the different labor requirements by producer type.
plant overhead (PLOH) = (0.5)»(Total payroll + Total other expenses). The cost
model computes plant overhead as 50 percent of total payroll and total other
B-7
-------
Table B-7. Average Fixed Costs by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Property taxes and insurance
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Administrative and sales
expense
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Payroll overhead
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Plant overhead
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$4.41
$3.20
$6.78
$4.96
$3.60
$7.63
$3.15
$1.72
$6.21
$9.33
$5.38
$17.67
Merchant
18
$4.58
$3.55
$6.11
$5.16
$4.00
$6.87
$5.44
$2.10
$8.41
$17.77
$7.50
$26.95
All Coke Batteries
58
$4.47
$3.20
$6.78
$5.02
$3.60
$7.63
$3.86
$1.72
$8.41
$11.95
$5.38
$26.95
expenses by producer type. As shown in Table B-7, the average plant overhead
cost is $9.33 for captive producers and $17.77 for merchant producers. As with
payroll overhead, this difference reflects differences in labor requirements for
captive and merchant producers.
B.5 Summary of Results
Table B-8 summarizes each cost component and aggregates them to estimate the
average total costs per ton of coke by producer type. As shown, the average total cost (ATC)
across all coke batteries is $101.72 per short ton of coke. The ATC for captive producers is
$95.99 per short ton of coke and is significantly lower than the ATC for merchant producers
at $114.47. This difference reflects both economies of scale and lower production costs
associated with the production of furnace coke. These differences are also consistent with
-------
Table B-8. Cost Summary by Producer Type: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Number of batteries
Average variable cost3
Average
Minimum
Maximum
MACT
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Average fixed cost
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Average total cost
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Captive
40
$73.32
$62.09
$82.74
$0.82
$0.00
$2.54
$21.85
$15.03
$38.28
$95.99
$77.42
$119.72
Merchant
18
$79.21
$44.91
$95.43
$2.29
$0.00
$10.93
$32.96
$17.37
$46.16
$114.47
$76.97
$145.02
All Coke Batteries
58
$75.15
$44.91
$95.43
$1.27
$0.00
$10.93
$25.30
$15.03
$46.16
$101.72
$76.97
$145.02
alncludes by-/co-product credits.
observed market prices for furnace coke $71-$114 (produced mainly by captive producers)
and for foundry coke $148-$ 154 (produced solely by merchant producers with some furnace
coke) (USITC, 1994). A correlation analysis of these cost estimates shows that ATC is
negatively correlated with coke battery capacity (correlation coefficient of-0.66) and
start/rebuild date (correlation coefficient of-0.36). Therefore, average total costs are lower
for larger coke batteries and those that are new or recently rebuilt. Tables B-A and B-B, at
the end of this appendix, present cost estimates for individual captive and merchant coke
batteries, respectively.
B-9
-------
B.6 Nonrecovery Cokemaking
Several substitute technologies for by-product cokemaking have been developed in
the United States and abroad. In the United States, the nonrecovery method is the only
substitute that has a significant share of the coke market. This technology is relatively new,
and, as a result, the original coke production cost model did not include estimates for these
types of coke-making batteries. The nonrecovery process is less costly than the by-product
process because of the absence of recovery operations and a lower labor input requirement
per ton of coke. Therefore, the Agency modified the model to reflect these cost advantages in
the following manner:
• No expenses/credits associated with by- and co-product recovery.
• Reduced labor input—labor requirement estimates generated by the model were
multiplied by a factor of 0.11, which represents the ratio of employment per ton of
coke at merchant batteries to employment per ton of coke at nonrecovery batteries.
• Exceed current standards of pollution abatement {Engineering and Mining
Journal, 1997)—MACT compliance costs were excluded.
As shown in Table B-9, the ATC for nonrecovery coke-making facilities is $71.28 per ton of
coke, which is significantly lower than the average ATC of captive and merchant producers.
These costs vary slightly across these batteries ranging from $68.49 to $72.88 per ton of
coke. Table B-C, at the end of this appendix, presents cost estimates for individual
nonrecovery cokemaking batteries.
B-10
-------
Table B-9. Cost Summary for Nonrecovery Coke Batteries: 1997 ($/ton of coke)
Nonrecovery
Number of batteries 8
Metallurgical coal
Average $52.03
Minimum $50.38
Maximum $53.67
Labor
Average $1.90
Minimum $1.31
Maximum $2.39
Energy
Average $5.17
Minimum $5.01
Maximum $5.38
Other
Average $1.74
Minimum $1.63
Maximum $1.82
Average fixed cost
Average $10.45
Minimum $9.90
Maximum $10.85
Average total cost
Average $71.28
Minimum $68.49
Maximum $72.88
B-ll
-------
Table B-A. Cost Data Summary for Captive Coke Batteries: 1997
Facility Name
Acme Steel
Acme Steel
AK Steel
AK Steel
AK Steel
Bethlehem Steel
Bethlehem Steel
Bethlehem Steel
td
^ Bethlehem Steel
to
Geneva Steel
Geneva Steel
Geneva Steel
Geneva Steel
Gulf States Steel
Gulf States Steel
LTV Steel
LTV Steel
National Steel
National Steel
National Steel
Producer
Location Type3
Chicago, IL
Chicago, IL
Ashland, KY
Ashland, KY
Middletown, OH
Burns Harbor, IN
Burns Harbor, IN
Lackawanna, NY
Lackawanna, NY
Provo, UT
Provo, UT
Provo, UT
Provo, UT
Gadsden, AL
Gadsden, AL
Chicago, IL
Warren, OH
Ecorse, MI
Granite City, IL
Granite City, IL
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Capacity
Coke (short
Type" tons/yr)
1 250
1 250
1 634
1 366
1 429
1 948
1 929
1 375
1 375
1 200
1 200
1 200
1 200
1 250
1 250
1 615
1 549
1 924
1 300
1 300
,000
,000
,000
,000
,901
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,839
,931
,931
Start/
Rebuild
Date
1979
1978
1978
1953
1952
1972
1983
1962
1952
1944
1944
1944
1944
1942
1965
1982
1979
1992
1982
1980
AVCC
($/short
ton)
$80.49
$80.49
$71.63
$73.79
$75.09
$64.93
$65.27
$71.46
$71.45
$77.36
$77.97
$78.24
$81.21
$82.74
$81.56
$69.02
$69.05
$80.77
$75.74
$75.74
MACT
($/short
ton)
$1.00
$1.00
$1.26
$1.00
$1.21
$0.71
$0.70
$1.75
$1.79
$0.26
$0.26
$0.22
$0.22
$1.68
$2.54
$0.35
$0.04
$0.26
$0.67
$0.67
AFC
($/short
ton)
$20.
$20.
$18.
$20.
$22.
$17.
$18.
.15
.15
.63
.83
.12
.57
.13
$20.40
$20.22
$24.84
$26.
$22.
$38.
.85
.85
.28
$26.63
$18.
$17.
.77
.96
$20.79
$16.56
$20.
$20.
.72
.72
ATC
($/short
ton)
$101
$101
$91
$95
$98
$83
$84
$93
$93
$102
$105
$101
$119
$111
$102
$87
$89
$97
$97
$97
.64
.64
.52
.62
.42
.22
.10
.61
.46
.46
.08
.31
.72
.05
.86
.33
.88
.59
.13
.13
(continued)
-------
Table B-A. Cost Data Summary for Captive Coke Batteries: 1997 (continued)
Facility Name
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
USX
Wheeling-Pitt
Wheeling-Pitt
Wheeling-Pitt
Wheeling-Pitt
aC = Captive; M =
bl = Furnace; 2 =
Location
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Clairton, PA
Gary, IN
Gary, IN
Gary, IN
Gary, IN
Follansbee, WV
Follansbee, WV
Follansbee, WV
Follansbee, WV
= Merchant.
Foundry; 3 = Both.
Producer Coke
Type3 Type"
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
C 1
Capacity
(short
tons/yr)
844,610
668,680
668,680
373,395
373,395
373,395
378,505
378,505
378,505
378,505
378,505
378,505
827,820
827,820
297,110
297,110
782,000
163,000
151,000
151,000
Start/
Rebuild
Date
1982
1976
1978
1989
1989
1979
1955
1955
1955
1954
1954
1954
1976
1975
1954
1954
1977
1964
1955
1953
AVCC
($/short
ton)
$64.94
$65.89
$65.89
$68.36
$68.36
$68.36
$70.52
$70.52
$70.52
$71.75
$71.75
$71.75
$73.33
$74.13
$79.40
$79.68
$62.09
$76.53
$77.49
$77.49
MACT
($/short
ton)
$0.71
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$1.02
$1.02
$1.07
$1.07
$1.07
$1.02
$0.00
$0.64
$0.64
$1.48
$1.48
$0.30
$1.33
$1.09
$1.09
AFC
($/short
ton)
$15.28
$19.72
$19.72
$20.96
$20.96
$20.96
$21.96
$21.96
$21.96
$21.69
$21.69
$21.69
$22.55
$21.93
$23.84
$24.98
$15.03
$28.51
$27.79
$27.79
ATC
($/short
ton)
$80.92
$85.61
$85.61
$89.32
$89.32
$90.34
$93.50
$93.55
$93.55
$94.51
$94.46
$93.44
$96.52
$96.70
$104.72
$106.14
$77.42
$106.37
$106.37
$106.38
-------
Table B-B. Cost Data Summary for Merchant Coke Batteries: 1997
Facility Name
ABC Coke
ABC Coke
ABC Coke
Citizens Gas
Citizens Gas
Citizens Gas
Empire Coke
Empire Coke
Erie Coke
Erie Coke
Koppers
Koppers
New Boston
Shenango
Sloss Industries
Sloss Industries
Sloss Industries
Tonawanda
aC = Captive; M =
bl = Furnace; 2 = I
Location
Tarrant, AL
Tarrant, AL
Tarrant, AL
Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Holt, AL
Holt, AL
Erie, PA
Erie, PA
Monessen, PA
Monessen, PA
Portsmouth, OH
Pittsburgh, PA
Birmingham, AL
Birmingham, AL
Birmingham, AL
Buffalo, NY
Merchant.
"oundry; 3 = Both.
Producer
Typea
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Coke
Type"
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
Capacity
(short
tons/yr)
490,528
112,477
96,962
389,116
128,970
116,845
108,026
54,013
130,073
84,878
245,815
126,766
346,126
514,779
184,086
133,931
133,931
268,964
Start/
Rebuild
Date
1968
1951
1941
1979
1946
1941
1978
1978
1943
1952
1981
1980
1964
1983
1959
1952
1956
1962
AVCC
($/short
ton)
$72.41
$86.96
$91.22
$58.28
$80.97
$85.88
$93.33
$95.13
$76.52
$77.73
$87.77
$99.08
$83.67
$84.44
$62.04
$90.33
$90.33
$44.91
MACT
($/short
ton)
$1.20
$2.64
$2.51
$1.03
$1.98
$2.09
$7.24
$10.93
$1.70
$1.45
$0.12
$0.35
$1.32
$0.00
$1.58
$1.58
$1.58
$1.99
AFC
($/short
ton)
$17.37
$31.18
$34.63
$20.19
$41.91
$46.16
$36.59
$38.96
$44.67
$46.00
$28.92
$37.76
$25.86
$27.30
$24.69
$29.16
$29.16
$32.30
ATC
($/short
ton)
$90.99
$117.48
$125.02
$76.97
$124.85
$134.12
$137.16
$145.02
$122.88
$125.18
$113.16
$133.55
$107.02
$108.16
$84.77
$117.35
$117.35
$79.20
-------
Table B-C. Cost Data Summary for Nonrecovery Coke Batteries: 1997
td
Facility Name
Jewell Coke
and Coal
Jewell Coke
and Coal
Jewell Coke
and Coal
Jewell Coke
and Coal
Indiana Harbor
Coke Co
Indiana Harbor
Coke Co
Indiana Harbor
Coke Co
Indiana Harbor
Coke Co
aC = Captive; M =
bl = Furnace; 2 =
Includes by-/co-t
Location
Vansant, VA
Vansant, VA
Vansant, VA
Vansant, VA
East Chicago, IN
East Chicago, IN
East Chicago, IN
East Chicago, IN
= Merchant.
Foundry; 3 = Both.
)roduct credits.
Producer Coke
Type3 Type"
M 1
M 1
M 1
M 1
M 1
M 1
M 1
M 1
Capacity
(short
tons/yr)
197,000
164,000
124,000
164,000
325,000
325,000
325,000
325,000
Start/
Rebuild
Date
1966
1983
1989
1990
1998
1998
1998
1998
AVCC
($/short
ton)
$58.59
$59.31
$59.98
$59.31
$62.36
$62.36
$62.36
$62.36
MACT
($/short
ton)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
AFC
($/short
ton)
$9.90
$10.38
$10.85
$10.38
$10.52
$10.52
$10.52
$10.52
ATC
($/short
ton)
$68.49
$69.69
$70.83
$69.69
$72.88
$72.88
$72.88
$72.88
-------
APPENDIX C
ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEMAND ELASTICITY FOR
STEEL MILL PRODUCTS
This appendix summarizes EPA's estimation of the demand elasticities for steel mill
products. These estimates are based on national-level data from 1987 through 1997 as
obtained from the AISI (1990, 1992, 1997), U.S. Bureau of the Census (1988-1998, 1997,
1998), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1998), and other government sources (U.S.
Department of Energy, 1990, 1998 and U.S. Geological Survey 1987-1990, 1995-1997). The
following sections summarize the econometric procedure and present the estimates of the
demand elasticity for the following nine steel mill products:
• semi-finished products
• structural shapes and plates
• rails and track accessories
• bars
• tool steel
• pipe and tubing
• wire
• tin mill
• sheet and strip
C.I Econometric Model
A partial equilibrium market supply/demand model is specified as a system of
interdependent equations in which the price and output of a product are simultaneously
determined by the interaction of producers and consumers in the market. In simultaneous
equation models, where variables in one equation feed back into variables in other equations,
the error terms are correlated with the endogenous variables (price and output). In this case,
C-l
-------
single-equation ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations will lead to
biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. Thus, simultaneous estimation of this system to
obtain elasticity estimates requires that each equation be identified through the inclusion of
exogenous variables to control for shifts in the supply and demand curves over time.
Exogenous variables influencing the demand for steel mill products include measures
of economic activity such as U.S. gross national and domestic production and the value of
construction activity, and the price of substitute products such as aluminum, plastics and
other nonferrous materials and building materials like cement/concrete (typically proxied by
the appropriate producer price indices). Exogenous variables influencing the level of supply
include measures of the change in the costs of iron and steel production caused by changes in
prices of key inputs like raw materials, fuel, and labor (typically proxied by the producer
price index for iron ore, coke, metallurgical coal, as well as the average hourly earnings for
the industry's production workers).
The supply/demand system for a particular steel mill product over time (t) is defined
as follows:
Qtd = f(Pt,Zt) + ut (C.I)
Qts = g(Pt,Wt) + vt (C.2)
Q,d = Q,s (C.3)
Eq. (C.I) shows quantity demanded in year t as a function of price, Pt, an array of demand
factors, Zt(e.g., measures of economic activity and substitute prices), and an error term, ut.
Eq. (C.2) represents quantity supplied in year t as a function of price and other supply factors,
Wt (e.g., input prices), and an error term, vt, while Eq. (C.3) specifies the equilibrium
condition that quantity supplied equals quantity demanded in year t, creating a system of
three equations in three variables. The interaction of the specified market forces solves this
system, generating equilibrium values for the variables Pt* and Qt*=Qtd*=Qts*.
Since the objective is to generate estimates of the demand elasticities for use in the
economic model, EPA employed the two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression procedure to
estimate only the parameters of the demand equation. This 2SLS approach is preferred to the
three-stage least squares approach because the number of observations limits the degrees of
freedom for use in the estimation procedure. EPA specified the logarithm of the quantity
demanded as a linear function of the logarithm of the price so that the coefficient on the price
C-2
-------
variable yields the estimate of the constant elasticity of demand for steel mill product. All
prices employed in the estimation process were deflated by the gross domestic product (GDP)
implicit price deflator to reflect real rather than nominal prices. The first stage of the 2SLS
procedure involves regressing the observed price against the supply and demand "shifter"
variables that are exogenous to the system. This first stage produces fitted (or predicted)
values for the price variable that are, by definition, highly correlated with the true
endogenous variable, the observed price, and uncorrelated with the error term. In the second
stage, these fitted values are then employed as observations of the right-hand side price
variable in the demand function. This fitted value is uncorrelated with the error term by
construction and thus does not incur the endogeneity bias.
C.2 Econometric Results
Table C-l provides the results of the econometric estimation for each steel mill
product demand equation. The coefficients of the price variables represent the demand
elasticity estimates for each of the nine steel mill products. As economic theory predicts, all
of these estimates are negative, reflecting reductions in quantity demanded as price increases.
The elasticities range from -0.16 for semi-finished products to -2.17 for rails and track
accessories, with a shipments weighted average elasticity for all products of-0.59. As
shown, three of the nine elasticity estimates are significant at a 90 percent confidence level.
As expected, the estimated coefficients for the demand growth variables (GDP and
value of new construction) are all positive with the exception of the equation for steel wire
drawn products. However, this estimate is not statistically significant. The regression
coefficient results generally show that the price of aluminum, nonferrous metals' producer
price index (PPI), and plastics' PPI are substitutes for the majority of the steel mill products.
Prices increases for these products result in increases in quantity demand for steel mill
products. The coefficient for the primary copper PPI is negative in the wire equation
indicating that it is a complement. A price increase for this product decreases wire
consumption. Copper and steel are both used in electric appliances; therefore, this is
consistent with these results. The regressions also show a negative coefficient for the price of
aluminum in the semi-finished products equation, the nonferrous metals' PPI in the tin mill
products equation, and the concrete products' PPI in the structural shapes and plates equation
suggesting these products are also complement products. Although these products may be
C-3
-------
Table C-l. Two Stage Least Squares Regression Estimation of Steel Mill Products Demand Equations
Independent Variables
Constant
In(price)
In(gdp)
ln(value new construct)
ln(alum_price)
ln(PPI_nonferrmetals)
ln(PPI_plast_parts_mfg)
ln(PPI_plast_sh_rd_tube)
ln(PPI copper_prim)
ln(PPI conc_prod)
ln(PPI_plast_prod)
Time trend squared
Semi-
finished
Products
3.42
(1.47)
-0.16
(-1.39)
1.52
(4.64)***
—
-0.20
(-2.75)**
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Structural
Shapes
and Plates
11.24
(1.93)
-0.17
(-0.71)
1.20
(4.00)**
—
—
0.69
(1.66)
—
—
—
-1.59
(-1.25)
—
—
Rails and
Track
Accessories
1.26
(0.27)
-2.17
(-1.95)*
2.95
(4.96)***
—
0.08
(0.69)
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Dependent Variables (In Q")
Pipe and
Bars Tool Steel Tubing
6.56 2.06 14.41
(1.71) (0.31) (1.11)
-0.66 -0.47 -1.62
(-1.17) (-2.02)* (-2.14)*
1.61 — —
(6.08)***
— 0.98 0.13
(1.84) (0.18)
0.27 0.09 —
(2.67)** (0.52)
— — —
— — —
— — 2.09
(0.90)
— — —
— — —
— — —
— — —
Wire
22.5
(1.14)
-0.73
(-2.05)
-1.13
(-0.55)
—
—
—
—
-0.50
(-2.90)**
—
1.78
(2.46)*
-0.002
(-0.54)
Tin Mill
Products
3.66
(0.61)
-0.28
(-1.61)
1.41
(2.32)*
—
—
-0.15
(-1.59)
0.39
(1.23)
—
—
—
—
-0.002
(-2.37)*
Sheet and
Strip
6.14
(0.61)
-0.65
(-1.90)
1.92
(2.59)**
—
0.12
(1.18)
—
-0.26
(-0.29)
—
—
—
—
—
(continued)
-------
Table C-l. Two Stage Least Squares Regression Estimation of Steel Mill Products Demand Equations (Continued)
Dependent Variables
Independent Variables
R-Squared
Adjusted R-Squared
F value
Observations
Degrees of Freedom
Semi-
finished
Products
0.90
0.86
2144***
11
7
Structural
Shapes
and Plates
0.81
0.65
5.26**
10
5
Rails and
Track
Accessories
0.82
0.75
10.87***
11
7
Bars
0.84
0.77
12.32***
11
7
Tool Steel
0.44
0.20
1.85
11
7
(In Q")
Pipe and
Tubing
0.51
0.30
2.41
11
7
Wire
0.98
0.96
42.23***
10
4
Tin Mill
Products
0.57
0.14
1.31
11
5
Sheet and
Strip
0.93
0.88
17.47***
10
5
Note: T-statistics of parameter estimates are in parenthesis. The F test analyzes the usefulness of the model. Asterisks indicate significance levels for these tests as
follows:
* = 90%, ** = 95%, *** = 99%
aPrice of corresponding steel mill product.
Variable Descriptions:
In(gdp)
ln(value_new_construct)
ln(alum_price)
ln(PPI_nonferrmetals)
ln(PPI_plast_parts_mfg)
ln(PPI_plast_sh_rd_tube)
ln(PPI_copper_prim)
ln(PPI_conc_prod)
ln(PPI_plast_prod)
time trend squared
real gross domestic product
real value of construction put in place
real price of aluminum
real producer price index for nonferrous metals
real producer price index for plastic parts and components for manufacturing
real producer price index for laminated plastic sheets, rods, and tubes
real producer price index for primary copper
real producer price index for concrete products
real producer price index for plastic products
time trend squared
-------
substitutes in specific applications, they are often complement products in the production of
final goods (i.e., building construction).
As a result of these econometric findings, the market model used the weighted
average demand elasticity of-0.59.
C-6
-------
APPENDIX D
JOINT ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE INTEGRATED IRON AND
STEEL MACT STANDARD WITH THE COKE MACT STANDARD
For this analysis, the Agency also considered the national-level economic impacts of
joint implementation of the integrated iron and steel MACT standard with the coke MACT
standard. The measures of economic impacts presented in this appendix are the result of
incorporating the costs of compliance for each affected integrated iron and steel mill under
the integrated iron and steel MACT into market models developed by the Agency to analyze
the economic impacts of the coke MACT standard. The engineering analysis estimates
annual costs for existing sources are $5.9 million under the integrated iron and steel MACT
and $14.3 million under the coke MACT. Therefore, the total national estimate for existing
sources under joint implementation are $20.2 million.
D.I Market-Level Impacts
The increased cost of coke production due to the regulation is expected to increase the
price of coke, steel mill products, and iron castings and reduce their production and
consumption from 1997 baseline levels. As shown in Table D-l, the regulation is projected
to increase the price of furnace coke by 1.5 percent, or $1.56 per short ton, and the price of
foundry coke by nearly 3 percent, or $4.17 per short ton. The increased captive production
costs and higher market price associated with furnace coke are projected to increase steel mill
product prices by less than 0.1 percent, or $0.14 per ton. Similarly, the higher market price of
foundry coke are projected to increase iron castings prices by less than 0.1 percent, or $0.35
per ton. As expected, directly affected output declines across all producers, while supply
from domestic and foreign producers not subject to the regulation increases. Although the
resulting net declines are slight across all products (i.e., roughly 0.1 percent decline in market
output) the change in domestic production are typically higher. This is especially true for
furnace coke where domestic production declines by 2.25 percent.
D-l
-------
Table D-l. Market-Level Impacts of the Joint Implementation of the Integrated Iron
and Steel MACT with the Coke MACT: 1997
Changes From Baseline
Furnace Coke
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Imports
Foundry Coke
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Imports
Steel Mill Products
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Integrated producers
Nonintegrated steel mills3
Imports
Iron Castings
Market price ($/short ton)
Market output (103 tpy)
Domestic production
Cupola furnaces
Electric furnacesb
Imports
Baseline
$107.36
11,710
7,944
3,765
$145.02
1,669
1,669
NA
$639.74
137,015
105,858
62,083
43,775
31,157
$845.55
12,314
11,483
6,695
4,789
831
Absolute
$1.56
-11.9
-178.8
166.9
$4.17
-1.4
-1.4
NA
$0.14
-17.6
-24.2
-33.4
9.2
6.6
$0.35
-3.1
-3.4
-5.4
2.0
0.3
Percent
1.46%
-0.10%
-2.25%
4.43%
2.87%
-0.08%
-0.08%
NA
0.02%
-0.01%
-0.02%
-0.05%
0.02%
0.02%
0.04%
-0.03%
-0.03%
-0.08%
0.04%
0.04%
a Includes mini-mills.
b Includes electric arc or electric induction furnaces.
D-2
-------
D.2 Industry-Level Impacts
Industry revenue, costs, and profitability change as prices and production levels adjust
to increased production costs. As shown in Table D-2, the economic model projects that
profits for directly affected integrated iron and steel producers will decrease by $15.9 million,
or 1.2 percent. In addition, the Agency projects profit losses of $4.6 million for foundries
that produce iron casting with cupola furnaces. However, because integrated steel mills
reduce their captive production of furnace coke and purchase more through the market,
industry-level profits for U.S. merchant coke producers are expected to increase by $2.7
million, or 5.6 percent, for furnace coke. Similarly, because foundries with cupola furnaces
must continue to buy foundry coke to produce iron castings (i.e., inelastic demand), industry-
level profits for U.S. merchant coke producers are expected to increase by $3.9 million, or
5.0 percent, for foundry coke. Those domestic suppliers not subject to the regulation
experience windfall gains with non-integrated steel mills (i.e., mini-mills) increasing profits
by $5.9 million and foundries with electric furnaces increasing profits by $1.7 million.
D. 2.1 Changes in Profitability
For integrated steel mills, operating profits decline by $15.9 million. This is the net
result of three effects:
• Net decrease in revenue ($11.7 million): Steel mill product revenue decreases as
a result of reductions in output. However, these losses were mitigated by
increased revenues from furnace coke supplied to the market as a result of higher
prices.
• Net decrease in production costs ($10.2 million): Reduction in steel mill and
market coke production costs occur as output declines. However, producers also
experience increases in costs associated with the higher price of inputs (i.e.,
furnace coke).
• Increase in control costs ($14.4 million): The costs of captive production of
furnace coke increase as a result of regulatory controls.
Industry-wide profits for merchant furnace coke producers increase by $2.7 million as
a result of the following:
• Decreases in revenue ($10 million): Reductions in output outweigh revenue
increases as a result of higher market prices.
D-3
-------
Table D-2. National-Level Industry Impacts of the Joint Implementation of the
Integrated Iron and Steel MACT with the Coke MACT: 1997
Integrated Iron and Steel Mills
Total revenues ($106/yr)
Steel mill products
Market coke operations
Total costs ($106/yr)
Control costs
Steel production
Captive coke production
Market coke production
Production costs
Steel production
Captive coke production
Market coke consumption
Market coke production
Operating profits ($10Vyr)
Iron and steel facilities (#)
Coke batteries (#)
Employment (FTEs)
Coke Producers (Merchant Only)
Furnace
Revenues ($106/yr)
Costs ($106/yr)
Control costs
Production costs
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Coke batteries (#)
Employment (FTEs)
Foundry
Revenues ($106/yr)
Costs ($106/yr)
Control costs
Production costs
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Coke batteries (#)
Employment (FTEs)
Nonintegrated Steel Mills3
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Cupola Furnaces
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Electric Furnaces'"
Operating profits ($106/yr)
Baseline
$40,223.9
$39,716.9
$507.0
$38,837.6
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$38,837.6
$36,292.9
$942.5
$1,167.8
$434.3
$1,386.3
20
37
67,198
$366.5
$318.5
$0.0
$318.5
$48.0
13
840
$273.3
$194.2
$0.0
$194.2
$77.9
12
2,420
NA
NA
NA
Changes From
Absolute
-$11.71
-$12.99
$1.29
$4.21
$14.36
$5.94
$6.28
$2.14
-$10.15
-$20.09
-$0.42
$16.10
-$5.74
-$15.92
0
0
-45
-$10.01
-$12.69
$2.16
-$14.85
$2.68
-1
-126
$7.03
$3.10
$3.30
-$0.20
$3.93
0
0
$5.9
-$4.6
$1.7
Baseline
Percent
-0.03%
-0.03%
0.25%
0.01%
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0.03%
-0.06%
-0.04%
1.38%
-1.32%
-1.15%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.07%
-2.73%
-3.98%
NA
-4.66%
5.59%
-7.69%
-15.00%
2.57%
1.60%
NA
-0.10%
4.96%
0.00%
0.00%
NA
NA
NA
a Includes mini-mills.
b Includes electric arc or electric induction furnaces.
0 Includes iron foundries that use electric arc or electric induction furnaces.
D-4
-------
• Reduction in production costs ($14.9 million): Reduction in coke production
costs occurs as output declines.
• Increased control costs ($2.2 million): The cost of producing furnace coke
increases as a result of regulatory controls.
Industry-wide profits for merchant foundry coke producers increase by $3.9 million
under the regulation:
• Increase in revenue ($7.0 million): Revenue increases as a result of higher market
prices with only slight reductions in output.
• Reduction in production costs ($0.2 million): Reduction in coke production costs
occur as output declines.
• Increased control costs ($3.3 million): The cost of producing foundry coke
increases as a result of regulatory controls.
Industry-wide profits for domestic cupola furnaces are projected to decrease by $4.6
million as the result of higher price for foundry coke—their primary input.
Lastly, domestic producers that are not subject to the regulation benefit from higher
prices without additional control costs. As mentioned above, profits increase are projected
for nonintegrated steel mills and foundries producing iron castings with electric furnaces.
Additional distributional impacts of the rule within each producer segment are not
necessarily apparent from the reported decline or increase in their aggregate operating profits.
The regulation creates both gainers and losers within each industry segment based on the
distribution of compliance costs across facilities. As shown in Table D-3, a substantial
subset of the merchant coke facilities are projected to experience profit increases under both
alternatives (i.e., 11 furnace coke batteries, or 85 percent, and 10 foundry coke batteries, or
83 percent). However, one merchant battery is projected to cease market operations because
it is the highest-cost coke battery with the additional regulatory costs.
A majority of directly affected integrated iron and steel facilities (i.e., 15 plants, or 75
percent) are projected to become less profitable with the regulation with a total loss of $20.9
million. However, five integrated mills are projected to benefit from higher coke prices and
experience a total profit gain of $4.9 million. These integrated plants sell a significant share
of furnace coke in the market as compared to negatively affected facilities.
D-5
-------
Table D-3. Distributional Impacts of the Joint Implementation of the Integrated Iron
and Steel MACT with the Coke MACT: 1997
With Regulation
Integrated Iron and Steel Mills
Facilities (#)
Steel production
Total (103 tpy)
Average (tons/facility)
Steel compliance costs
Total (103 tpy)
Average (tons/facility)
Coke production
Total (103 tpy)
Average (tons/facility)
Coke compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average ($/ton)
Change in operating profit ($106)
Coke Plants (Merchant Only)
Furnace
Batteries (#)
Production (103 tpy)
Total (103 tpy)
Average (tons/facility)
Compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average ($/ton)
Change in operating profit ($106)
Foundry
Batteries (#)
Production
Total (103 tpy)
Average (tons/facility)
Compliance costs
Total ($106/yr)
Average
Change in operating profit ($106)
Increased
Profits
5
12,081
2,416
$0.35
$0.03
8,409
1,682
$2.72
$0.32
$4.94
11
3,046
277
$1.95
$0.64
$2.70
10
1,702
170
$2.17
$1.27
$4.10
Decreased
Profits
15
50,002
3,333
$5.59
$0.11
6,473
432
$5.87
$0.91
-$20.87
1
160
160
$0.21
$1.31
-$0.01
2
246
123
$1.14
$4.63
-$0.17
Closure
0
0
0
0
$0.00
0
0
$0
$0.00
$0.00
1
127
127
$0.21
$1.66
$0.00
0
0
0
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total
20
62,083
3,104
$5.94
$0.10
14,882
744
$8.59
$0.58
-$15.92
13
3,332
256
$2.37
$0.71
$2.68
12
1,948
162
$3.30
$1.70
$3.93
D-6
-------
D.2.2 Facility Closures
EPA estimates one merchant battery supplying furnace coke is likely to prematurely
close as a result of the regulation. In addition, one captive battery ceases to supply the market
and only produces coke sufficient for its internal requirements for production of steel mill
projects. In both cases, these batteries are the highest-cost producers of furnace coke with the
regulation.
D.2.3 Changes in Employment
As a result of decreased output levels, industry employment is projected to decrease
by less than 1 percent, or 171 full-time equivalents (FTEs), with the regulation. This is the
net result of employment losses for integrated iron and steel mills totaling 45 FTEs and
merchant coke plants of 126 FTEs. Although EPA projects increases in output for producers
not subject to the rule, which would likely lead to increases in employment, the Agency did
not develop quantitative estimates for this analysis.
D.3 Social Costs
The social impact of a regulatory action is traditionally measured by the change in
economic welfare that it generates. The social costs of the proposed rule will be distributed
across consumers and producers alike. Consumers experience welfare impacts due to
changes in market prices and consumption levels associated with the rule. Producers
experience welfare impacts resulting from changes in profits corresponding with the changes
in production levels and market prices. However, it is important to emphasize that this
measure does not include benefits that occur outside the market, that is, the value of reduced
levels of air pollution with the regulation.
The national compliance cost estimates are often used as an approximation of the
social cost of the rule. The engineering analysis estimated annual costs of $20.2 million. In
this case, the burden of the regulation falls solely on the affected facilities that experience a
profit loss exactly equal to these cost estimates. Thus, the entire loss is a change in producer
surplus with no change (by assumption) in consumer surplus. This is typically referred to as
a "full-cost absorption" scenario in which all factors of production are assumed to be fixed
and firms are unable to adjust their output levels when faced with additional costs.
In contrast, the economic analysis accounts for behavioral responses by producers and
consumers to the regulation (i.e., shifting costs to other economic agents). This approach
D-7
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results in a social cost estimate that differs from the engineering estimate and also provides
insights on how the regulatory burden is distributed across stakeholders. As shown in Table
D-4, the economic model estimates the total social cost of the rule to be $19.9 million. This
small difference occurs because society allocates resources as a result of the increased cost of
coke production.
In the final product markets, higher market prices lead to consumers of steel mill
products experiencing losses of $18.5 million and consumers of iron castings experiencing
losses of $4.3 million. Although integrated iron and steel producers are able to pass on a
limited amount of cost increases to their final consumers (e.g., automotive manufactures and
construction industry), the increased costs result in a net decline in profits at integrated mills
of $15.9 million and foundries with cupola furnaces of $4.6 million.
In the coke industry, low-cost merchant producers of furnace and foundry coke
benefit at the expense of consumers and higher-cost merchant and captive coke batteries
resulting in an industry-wide increase in profits. Furnace coke profits at merchant plants
increase in aggregate by $2.7 million, and foundry coke profits at merchant plants increase in
aggregate by $3.9 million.
Lastly, domestic producers not subject to the regulation (i.e., nonintegrated steel mills
and electric furnaces) as well as foreign producers experience unambiguous gains because
they benefit from increases in market price under both alternatives.
D-8
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Table D-4. Distribution of the Social Costs of the Joint Implementation of the
Integrated Iron and Steel MACT with the Coke MACT: 1997
Change in Consumer Surplus ($106/yr) -$22.85
Steel mill product consumers -$18.51
Domestic -$17.70
Foreign -$0.82
Iron casting consumers -$4.33
Domestic -$4.07
Foreign -$0.26
Change in Producer Surplus ($106/yr) $2.91
Domestic producers -$6.31
Integrated iron and steel mills -$15.92
Nonintegrated steel mills" $5.91
Cupola furnaces -$4.60
Electric furnacesb $1.69
Furnace coke (merchant only) $2.68
Foundry coke (merchant only) $3.93
Foreign producers $9.22
Iron and steel $2.91
Castings $0.34
Furnace coke $6.02
Social Costs of the Regulation (S106/yr) -$19.94
a Includes mini-mills.
b Includes electric arc or electric induction furnaces.
D-9
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO. 2.
EPA-452/R-00-008
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Economic Impact Analysis of Proposed Integrated Iron and Steel
NESHAP
7.AUTHOR(S)
Michael P. Gallaher and Brooks M. Depro, RTI
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Research Triangle Institute (RTI)
Center for Economics Research, Hobbs Bldg.
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
John Seitz, Director
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Office of Air and Radiation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
3. RECIPIENTS ACCESSION NO.
5. REPORT DATE
December 2000
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
RTI Project Number 7647-012
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-D-99-024
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/200/04
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report evaluates the economic impacts of the proposed NESHAP to control metal and organic hazardous
air pollutants (HAPs) from integrated iron and steel mills. The social costs of the rule are estimated by
incorporating the expected costs of compliance to a partial equilibrium model of the U.S. iron and steel
industry and projecting the market impacts for steel mill products accounting for competition from foreign
producers and domestic mini-mills.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
economic impacts
social costs
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
Air Pollution control
Economic Impact Analysis
Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
19. SECURITY CLASS (Report)
Unclassified
20. SECURITY CLASS (Page)
Unclassified
c. COSATI Field/Group
21. NO. OF PAGES
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)
PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE
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