Jnucd Stales
       Environmental Protection
       Agency
            Office of Air Quality
            Planning and Standards
            Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
EPA-452/R-93-002
March 1993
      Air
EPA
GUIDANCE FOR GROWTH FACTORS,
PROJECTIONS, AND CONTROL
STRATEGIES FOR THE
15 PERCENT
RATE-OF-PROGRESS PLANS

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 Guidance for Growth Factors,
   Projections/  and Control
Strategies  for the  15  Percent
    Rate-of-Progress Plans
Ozone/Carbon Monoxide Programs Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Office of Air Quality Planning and
             Standards
  Research Triangle Park,  NC 27711

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    ADDENDUM TO "GUIDANCE FOR GROWTH FACTORS, PROJECTIONS, AND
  CONTROL STRATEGIES  FOR THE  15 PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS PLANS"

     The purpose of this addendum  is to provide  information on
the status of  issues  that have been raised regarding the
15 percent rate-of-progress plans.  These issues are divided into
three categories:  clarification of resolved issues,  status of
previously identified issues, and  identification of  new issues.

Clarification  of Resolved Issues

Inspection/Maintenance (I/M)

     Section 4.2 of the  document titled Guidance on  the Ad-justed
Base Year Emissions Inventory and  the 1996 Target for the
15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans. EPA-452/R-92-005,  discussed
the credit that can be allowed for improvements  to I/M programs.
As indicated in that  discussion, credit can  be allowed for
improvements in I/M programs  that  go beyond  EPA's basic I/M
requirements or the program that was approved in the  SIP at  the
time of enactment, whichever  is more stringent.   Therefore,
States can not get credit for bringing an I/M program up to  the
basic I/M standards,  even where EPA never issued a pre-enactment
SIP call to correct the  I/M program and where the I/M program had
been approved  in the  SIP.  This interpretation is based on  the
language in sections  182(b)(1)(D)(iv) and 182(a)(2)(B)(i) of  the
Act.

Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)

     Several questions have been raised concerning what  RVP
States should  use in  developing the 15 percent plan,   particularly
for areas that had an actual  RVP less than 9.0 psi in 1990.   The
reductions that must  be  subtracted from the  "rate-of-progress
base year inventory"  are calculated exactly as discussed in
Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the
.1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans, page 13.
This means that in determining the reductions that would be
achieved by the FMVCP and RVP requirements,  all areas, including
areas that had an actual RVP  less than 9.0 psi in  1990,  should
use the actual RVP for the- 1990 case and the allowable RVP
(9.0 or 7.3 psi) for  the MOBILES.0 run that will be used to
calculate the  1990 adjusted base year inventory.   Although rhis
might at first appear to result in a target that is more'
difficult to meet, in reality it does not.   The reductions that
are subtracted to get  the adjusted base year inventory are later
added to other reductions to get- the total required reductions.
The effect of  subtracting a smaller number from the rate-of-
progress inven€ory is  compensated by adding a smaller number  to
the total reductions.
                               0.0.1

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Nonroad Mobile Source Emissions Factors

     A number of States have questioned the accuracy of the
nonroad mobile source emissions factors and emissions provided by
the Office of Mobile Sources (QMS).  Although the factors are
higher than previous estimates, QMS believes that they are more
accurate.  They have indicated that they are willing to work with
any State that has identified problems regarding activity factors
related to distribution and/or usage of equipment.

Status of Previously Identified Issues
Waivers

Issue:



Status:
 Issue:
 Status:
 -ssue:
What does "all measures that can feasibly be
implemented...in light of technological achievability"
include?  [Section 182(b)(1)(A)(ii)(III)]

One interpretation of the Act is that "all measures
that can feasibly be implemented...in light of
technological achievability" includes only those
measures that are achieved in practice in nonattainment
areas of the next higher classification.  The EPA is
still considering whether this is  the preferred
interpretation.

If a State is granted a waiver, based on the fact that
it has submitted a plan•that includes all measures that
can feasibly be implemented, is the State still
required to submit contingency measures?  If so, what
would be available as contingency  measures?

If the interpretation above is used, other measures
such as those achieved in areas of even higher
classification will be available as contingency
measures.  For an area classified  as severe, there
would be no measures readily identifiable since there
is -only one classification above severe, although these
areas are still required to submit contingency
measures.  If a more stringent interpretation- is used,
EPA will have to consider whether  it is reasonable to
require contingency measures.

In determining the feasibility of  I/M for the purposes
of a waiver, can a State consider  the population of an
area?
 Status:    This  issue  is still under review by- QMS..
                                rv

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RVP

Issue:    What RVP should be assumed for projecting  1996
          emissions?

Status:   This issue is under review by QMS.  They are evaluating
          whether there is justification for allowing States  to
          assume that actual emissions are expected  to be less
          than future allowable emissions.

Federal Measures

Issue:    Will EPA approve 15 percent plans that are based on
          commitments to adopt new CTG RACT rules and/or
          forthcoming national rules (e.g., auto refinishing)?

Status:   The EPA will be providing guidance to the States
          concerning the credit that can be allowed from these
          programs.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)  Growth Projections

Issue:    Can States use more recent estimates or actual VMT
          growth rates where available?

Status:   The QMS has indicated that areas may be able to show
          that regionally-specific factors may be more
          appropriate in some circumstances, and plans to provide
          clarification of this issue.

Nonroad Mobile Sources

Issue:    How much credit can be allowed for the use of
          reformulated gasoline in nonroad engines?

Status:   The QMS plans to provide guidance to the States on how
          to determine credit for use of reformulated gasoline in
          nonroad sources.

Issue:    How should States project emissions from nonroad mobile
          sources into the future?

Status:   The QMS plans to issue guidance on projections  for
          nonroad mobile sources,

New Issues

     The following issues have recently been raised to EPA and we
are trying to resolve these as soon as  possible:

          To what extent will EPA accept committal SIP's  for the
          measures necessary to achieve the 15 percent reduction?

                                v

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     Will SPA accept committal SIP's for the contingency
     measures?

•     Can the contingency measures be for NOX as well as (or
     instead of)  VOC?
                           vi

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                             CONTENTS

                                                              Page

ADDENDUM	iii

LIST OF FIGURES	    x

LIST OF TABLES	    x

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS	xi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	    1

1 .0  INTRODUCTION	    5
     1.1  Purpose	    7
     1 .2  Background	    8

2.0  GENERAL ASPECTS OF EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS 	   13
     2.1  Use of Emissions Projections	13
     2.2  Rate-of-Progress Emissions Projections  	   13
     2.3  Emissions Factor Adjustments  	   13
     2.4  Actual and Allowable Emissions	14
     2.5  Effect of Rule Penetration and Rule Effectiveness  .   1 7

3.0  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GROWTH	19

4.0  GROWTH PROJECTIONS 	   21
     .4.1  Growth and Retirement Relationships	21
     4.2  Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS) 	   22
     4.3  Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS)  	   22

5.0  CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR VOC'S 	   25
     5.1  Stationary Source Controls	25
          Add-on VOC Controls	25
          Process Modifications and Substitution  	   26
     5.2  Motor Vehicles	27
          Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP)  ...   27
          RVP Limits	27
          Stage II	28
          Clean Fuel Fleet Program	   20
          Reformulated Gasoline ....    	   31
          Inspection and Maintenance	   21
          On-Board Diagnostic Systems 	   21
          Transportation Control Measures  (TCM's)  	   31
     5.3  Other Mobile Sources  	   23
     5.4  Control Strategy Documentation for Stationary
          Sources	  .	33
          Group I CTG Documents ."	35
          Group II CTG Documents	36
          Group III CTG Documents	37
          Model RACT Rules	   37

                               vii

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         New  CTG  Documents	38
         Non-CTG  RACT Rules	40
         ACT  Documents	40
         New  Source Performance Standards   	   41
         Section  112 Standards 	   42
         Other  Federal Control Measures  	   43
     5.5  Rule Effectiveness Improvements 	   44
         Agency Compliance 	   45
         Source	46
         Improvements in Technology	46
         Education	46
         Rules	46
     5.6  Quantification of Rule Effectiveness Improvement
         Programs	46

6.0  CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS 	   49
     6.1  Introduction	49
     6.2  Purpose  and Elements of Emissions Projections ...   50
     6.3  Types  of Emissions Projections	51
     6.4  Methods  for Calculating Point, Area, and Mobile
         Source 1996 Projection Year Emissions	51
         Point  Source Emissions Projections  	   52
         Area Source Emissions Projections 	   66
         Mobile Source Emissions Projections 	   69
         Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS)  	   70
     6.5  Effects  of Equipment Replacement  and New Source
         Requirements  	   72
     6.6  Submitting Projection Year Inventories and
         Supporting Data	73

7.0  CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR NOX	75
     7.1  Stationary Source Controls  	   75
     7.2  Area Source Controls	76
     7.3  Mobile Source Controls  	   76

8.0  ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION	77
     8.1  Requirements for Moderate and Above Nonattainment
          Areas	77
     8.2 Requirements for Serious and Above Nonattainment
          Areas	   78
     8.3 Modeling Considerations 	   78
          Empirical Kinetic Modeling Analysis (EKMA)   ....   ~8
          Urban Airshed Model  (UAM) ". . ."	78
     3.4  Special Air. Quality Situations  	   78
          Areas Requiring Emissions Reductions in Excess of
            15  Percent	78
          Areas Requiring Emissions Reductions Less Than
            15  Percent .	79
          Rural Nonattainment Areas 	   79
          Multi-State Nonattainment Areas 	   79
          International Border Areas  	   80
                              Vlll

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9.0  CONTINGENCY MEASURES  .  .  .  .
     9.1  Marginal Areas   .  .  .  .  ,
     9.2  Moderate and Above Areas
     9.3  Serious and Severe Areas
     9.4  Nonclassifiable Areas  .  .
     9.5  Examples	
REFERENCES

APPENDIX A:

APPENDIX B:


APPENDIX C:
                                                   81
                                                   81
                                                   82
                                                   85
                                                   86
                                                   87

                                                   89
DEFINITION OF TERMS
REFERENCES FOR CTG AND ACT DOCUMENTS FOR
STATIONARY VOC SOURCES  .  .  .  .  	
A-'
B-1
BACKGROUND INFORMATION DOCUMENTS FOR STATIONARY
VOC SOURCES SUBJECT TO NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE
STANDARDS (NSPS) AND NATIONAL EMISSION
STANDARDS FOR HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS  (NESHAP)
                                                               C-1
APPENDIX D:  CONTROL MEASURES FROM THE AIR QUALITY
             MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR THE SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY
             MANAGEMENT DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA   	D-1

APPENDIX E:  CURRENT ACT DOCUMENTS AND OTHER FEDERAL CONTROL
             MEASURES	E-1

APPENDIX F:  PROCEDURES FOR CALCULATING THE 1996 TARGET
             LEVEL OF EMISSIONS AND DISCUSSION OF CONTROL
             STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT  	 F-1

APPENDIX G:  CHECKLISTS	G-1

APPENDIX H:  MILESTONE AND ATTAINMENT FAILURES FOR MARGINAL
             AND MODERATE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS  	 H-1

APPENDIX I:  MODEL MULTI-STATS LETTER  	 1-1

APPENDIX J:  ALTERNATIVE CONTROL TECHNIQUE (ACT)  DOCUMENTS,
             NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (NSPS),  AND
             TWO SCAQMD AREA SOURCE RULES  FOR CONTROLLING
             NITROGEN OXIDE (NO*) EMISSIONS	     J- .

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                         LIST OF FIGURES

Number                                                        Page

Figure 1.     Flowchart for rate-of-progress calculations...    9
Figure 2.     Flowchart for a moderate ozone nonattainment
             area attainment demonstration	11
Figure F-1.  Flowchart for example rate-of-progress
             calculations	F-2
Figure H-1.  Marginal area attainment process flowchart.   .  .  H-1
Figure H-2.  Moderate area attainment process flowchart.   .  .  H-2
                          LIST. OF -TABLES

Number                                                        Page

A-1. MAJOR SOURCE THRESHOLDS AND  MINIMUM EMISSIONS  OFFSET
     RATIO REQUIREMENTS FOR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA
     CLASSIFICATIONS   	  A-3
F-1: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  15 PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS
     CONTROL STRATEGY  SUMMARY  SUBMITTAL 	   F-12
F-2: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  ATTAINMENT CONTROL  STRATEGY
     SUMMARY SUBMITTAL	F-13
F-3: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL . .   F-15
F-4: SUMMARY OF  EMISSIONS  REDUCTIONS FOR THE  15 PERCENT
     RATE-OF-PROGRESS  PLAN AND THE  ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION  F-16
F-5: 'SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  SUBMITTAL OF  RULE
     EFFECTIVENESS  (RE)  IMPROVEMENT MEASURES	F-17
F-6: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  SUBMITTAL OF  STATIONARY SOURCE
     CONTROL MEASURES  FOR  THE  15  PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS
     PLAN	F-17
F-7: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  SUBMITTAL OF  STATIONARY SOURCE
     CONTROL MEASURES  FOR  THE  ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION  . .   F-17
F-8: SERIOUS NONATTAINMENT AREA EXAMPLE FOR 15 PERCENT RATE-
     OF-PROGRESS CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL ....   F-24
F-9: SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR  CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL . .   F-25
                                 x

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                    ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Act
ACT
AFS
AFUE
AIRS
AMS
ANSI
ASTM
APCD
AQMD
ASC
ATM
BACT
BEA
BID
BTU
CAAA
CFR
CO
CTC
CTG
Cu.Ft.
DOE
DOT
E-GAS
EKMA
EPA
EPS
FIP
FMVCP
GACT
gal
HAP
HON
I/M
in. hg
IRS
LADCO
LAER
Ib
Ib/dav
Ib/hr"
LDT
LDV
LEV
* » x f*rn
-'l»~t.Vrf *m
Clean Air Act
Alternative Control Technique
AIRS Facility Subsystem
Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency
Aerometric Information Retrieval System
Area and Mobile Source Subsystem
American National Standards Institute
American Society for Testing and Materials
Air Pollution Control District
Air Quality Management District
Area Source Category Code
Atmosphere
Best Available Control Technology
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Background Information Document
British Thermal Units
1990 Clean Air Act Amendments
Code of Federal Regulations
Carbon monoxide
Control Technology Center
Control Technique Guidelines
Cubic Foot
Department of Energy
Department of Transportation
Economic Growth Analysis System
Empirical Kinetic Modeling Analysis
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Emissions Preprocessor System
Federal Implementation Plan
Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program
Generally Available Control Technology
GalIon(s)
Hazardous Air Pollutant
Hazardous Organic NESHAP
Inspection and Maintenance
Inches of Mercury
Internal Revenue Service
Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium
Lowest Achievable Emissions Rate
Pound(s ?
Pounds per day
Pounds per hour
Light-duty trucks
Light-duty vehicles
Lev:-emission vehicle
                ortr.easr states rcr Coordinate1
               •ianace-en-

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NESHAP

NOX
NSPS
NSR
NTIS
OAQPS

ppm
psi
RACT
RCRA
RE
RFP
rpm
RVP
SAS
SCAQMD
SIC
SIP
SOCMI
SSCD

TCM
tpy
TSDF

UAM
VMT
VOC
National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air
Pollutants
Oxides of nitrogen
New Source Performance Standard
New Source Review
National Technical Information Service
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards of
EPA
Parts per million
Pounds per square inch
Reasonably Available Control Technology
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
Rule Effectiveness
Reasonable Further Progress
Revolutions per minute
Reid Vapor Pressure
Statistical Analysis System
South Coast Air Quality Management District
Standard Industrial Classification
State Implementation Plan
Synthetic Organic Chemicals Manufacturing Industry
Stationary Source Compliance Division of EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Transportation Control Measures
Tons per year
Hazardous Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal
Facility
Urban Airshed Model
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Volatile Organic Compound
                               Xli

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                        EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

     Section 182(b)(1) of the Clean Air Act (Act) requires all
ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate and above to
submit a State implementation plan (SIP) revision by November 15,
1993, which describes, in part, how the areas will achieve an
actual volatile organic compound (VO.C) emissions reduction of at
least 15 percent during the first 6 years after enactment of the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) (i.e., up to November 15,
1996).  In addition, the SIP revision must describe how any
growth in emissions from 1990 through 1996 will be fully offset.
The portion of the SIP revision that illustrates the plan for the
achievement of these emissions reductions is subsequently defined
in .this document as the "rate-of-progress plan."

     It is important to note that section 182(b)(1) also requires
the SIP for moderate areas to provide for reductions in VOC and
nitrogen oxides (NOX)  emissions "as necessary  to attain the
national primary ambient air quality standard for ozone" by
November 15, 1996.  This requirement can be met through the use
of EPA-approved modeling techniques and the adoption of any
additional control measures beyond those needed to meet the
15 percent emissions reduction requirements.  States with
intrastate moderate ozone nonattainment areas will generally be
required to submit attainment demonstrations with their SIP
revisions due by November 15, 1993 [such areas choosing to use
the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) to prepare their attainment
demonstrations will be allowed to submit attainment
demonstrations by November 15, 1994].  States choosing to run UAM
for their intrastate moderate areas must submit by November 15,
1993, their rate7of-progress plan and a committal SIP addressing
the attainment demonstration.  The committal SIP subject to a
section 110(k)(4)  approval would include,  at a minimum, evidence
that grid modeling is well under way and a commitment,  with
schedule, to complete the modeling and submit it as a SIP
revision by November 1994.  The completed attainment
demonstration would include any additional controls needed for
attainment.

     This guidance document focuses on the procedures for
developing 1996 projected emissions inventories and control
measures which moderate and above ozone nonattainmenr areas
include in their rate-of-progress clans.  The  document:  ore-vices
-echnical guidance to support the policy presented in the
"General Preamble:  Implementation of Title I  of the CAAA of
1990" (57 FR 13498).  States are asked to submit their  draft "596
projected emissions inventories and control measures to EPA
May 1993.  States must submit their fully adopted rate-of-
progress plans .to SPA by November 1993.  Moderate ozone
nonattainment areas not using UAM must include an attainment
demonstration in their fully adopted rate-of-progress plans.
bv

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     This document- provides guidance to the States for
calculating the VOC emissions reductions and for developing the
control measures necessary to meet the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction requirements, net of growth, by November 1996.
Calculation of the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction,  net of
growth, includes the calculation of the following three
components:

          The 15 percent VOC emissions reduction from the 1990
          adjusted base year emissions inventory.

          The 1996 target level of emissions.

          Emissions reductions needed to fully  offset emissions
          growth from  1990 through 1996.

In October of 1992, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
 (EPA)  issued a document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base
Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent
Rate-of-Progress Plans.  (See reference 1.)  The document provides
detailed guidance for  calculating the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction from the 1990 adjusted base year emissions inventory,
and  the  1996 target level of emissions.  The guidance provided in
the  October 1992 document should be reviewed along with the
guidance in this document when preparing a rate-of-progress plan.

     The rate-of-progress plan must account for the effects of
growth experienced in  a nonattainment area from 1990 to 1996.
One  purpose of this document is to provide guidance on  the use of
 equations for projecting  1990 base year  emissions to 1996.  The
 document describes how growth factors, emissions reductions
 associated with regulations, rule effectiveness (RE), and rule
 penetration should be  used in the equations.  Guidance  is also
 provided for determining  whether projections should be  based on
 actual versus allowable emissions.  The  information sources for
 developing growth factors or indicators  that could be used as
 part of  the preparation of the  1996 projected emissions
 inventories are also discussed.  Several examples for calculating
 15 percent VOC emissions  reduction requirements, net of growth,
 are provided  for different ozone nonattainment  area
 classifications.

      A icey component of  the  rate-of-progress plan is the control
 measures that  the  State plans  to adopt and implement to reduce
 VOC emissions  to meet  the 15 percent  VOC emissions reduction
 requirements,  net of  growth, by November 1996.  One of  the
 purposes of  this document is  to provide  information concerning
 the types  of  control  technologies and strategies upon which
 control measures can  be  based  to control VOC and NOX emissions
 from point,  area, and  mobile  sources.  This document summarizes
 past and ongoing work  by EPA  in preparing Control Technique
 Guideline (CTG), Alternative Control  Technique  (ACT), and

                                2.

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background information documents for specific industrial sources
or processes.   It also presents information on existing and new
Federal regulatory programs for VOC and NOX sources.   The broad
range of mobile source control strategies, from vapor recovery to
transportation control measures (TCM's),  is also discussed.
A sample checklist is also provided to aid States in a step-by-
step review of their rate-of-progress plans to ensure that they
contain all of the necessary components required for approval by
EPA.

     This document also discusses the requirements for an
attainment demonstration for marginal and moderate ozone
nonattainment  areas, and presents the models involved in making
this demonstration.  Furthermore,  this document presents the
implications of attainment and milestone  failures for marginal
and moderate ozone nonattainment areas.  In addition, this
document describes the requirements for contingency measures that
must be included in the rate-of-progress  plans for moderate and
above ozone nonattainment areas, and provides examples of
possible contingency measures.

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1.0  INTRODUCTION

     Section 182(b)(1) of the Act requires all ozone
nonattainment areas classified as moderate and above to submit  a
SIP revision by November 15, 1993, which describes, in part, how
the areas will achieve an actual VOC emissions reduction of at
least 15 percent during the first 6 years after enactment of the
CAAA (i.e., up to November 15, 1996).  In addition, the SIP must
describe how any growth in emissions from 1990 through 1996 will
be fully offset.  Emissions and emissions reductions shall be
calculated on a typical weekday basis for the "peak" 3-month
ozone period (generally June through August) .  The 15 percent VOC
emissions reduction,  net of growth, required by November 15, 1996
is defined within this document as "rate of progress."1
Furthermore, the portion of the SIP revision that illustrates the
plan for the achievement of the emissions reductions is
subsequently defined in this document as the "rate-of-progress
plan."

     It is important to note that section 1B2(b)(1) also requires
the SIP for moderate areas to provide for reductions in VOC and
NOX emissions "as necessary to attain the national primary
ambient air quality standard for ozone" by November 15,  1996.
This requirement can be met through the use of EPA-approved
modeling techniques and the adoption of any additional control
measures beyond those needed to meet the 15 percent emissions
reduction requirements.  States with intrastate moderate ozone
nonattainment areas will generally be required to submit
attainment demonstrations with their SIP revisions due by
November 15, 1993  (such areas choosing to use UAM to prepare
their attainment demonstrations will be allowed to submit
attainment demonstrations by November 15, 1994).  States choosing
to run UAM for their intrastate moderate areas must submit by
     EPA recognizes that the Act terms,  for both the 15 percent
VOC emissions reduction requirement of section 182(b)(1) and the
section 182(c)(2)(B) requirement for 3 percent per year VOC
emissions reductions averaged over each consecutive 3-year period
from November 15, 1996 until the attainment-date, as reasonable
further progress (KFP) requirements.  However, because the Acr
requires- SIP revisions for the 15 percent reduction to be
submitted in 1993 and. SIP revisions for the 3 percent per year
reductions to be submitted in 1994, EPA believes that it would be
clearer, within the context of both the 15 percent rate-of-
progress plan and post-1996 rate-of-progress plan guidance
documents that EPA is producing, to create distinct labels for
these two seemingly similar reductions.  The 1994 SIP revisions
describing the'requirement for 3 percent VOC emissions reductions
averaged over each consecutive 3-year period from November 1 5,
1996 until the attainment date,  constitute the "post-1996 rate-
of -progress plan."

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November 15, 1993,, their rate-of-progress plan and  a  committal
SIP addressing the attainment demonstration.  The committal SIP
subject to a section 110(k)(4)  approval would include,  at a
minimum, evidence that grid modeling  is well under  way  and a
commitment, with schedule, to complete the modeling and submit it
as a SIP revision by November 1994.   The completed  attainment
demonstration would include any additional controls needed for
attainment.

     Section 182(c)(2) requires all ozone nonattainment areas
classified as serious and  above to submit a SIP  revision by
November 15, 1994 which describes, in part, how  each  area will
achieve additional VOC emissions  reductions of 3 percent per year
averaged over each consecutive  3-year period from November 15,
1996 until the area's attainment  date. It is important to note
that section 182(c) (2)(C)  allows  for  actual NOX  emissions
reductions  (exceeding growth) that occur after the  base year of
1990 to be used to meet post-1996 emissions reduction
requirements for ozone nonattainment  areas classified as serious
and above, provided that such NOX reductions meet the criteria
outlined in forthcoming substitution  guidance.   The portion of
the SIP revision  (due in 1994)  that illustrates  the plan for the
achievement of these post-1996  reductions in VOC or NOX is
subsequently defined in this document as  the "post-1996 rate-of-
progress plan."  This plan must also  contain an  attainment
demonstration based on photochemical  grid modeling.  The EPA will
distribute a separate guidance  document on the development of the
post-1996  rate-of-progress plan in early  to mid-1993.

     Demonstrating achievement  of the 15 percent VOC  emissions
reductions by November  15, 1996,  and  then subsequently
demonstrating achievement  of  the  3 percent per year VOC emissions
 reductions averaged over each consecutive 3-year period from
November  15,  1996 until the  attainment date, are termed milestone
 demonstrations.   Achievement of the milestones must be
 demonstrated within 90  days  of  the milestone date  (e.g. , the
 15 percent VOC emissions  reductions must  be demonstrated by
 February  13,  1997).  The EPA is currently developing  a  rule which
 will describe the information and analysis required for the
 milestone demonstrations.  The  rule is scheduled for  promulgation
 in the summer of  1994.  The  rule  will also address  summary data
 needs,  detailed  reporting  requirements,  and consequences of
 submitting an  inadequate  demonstration (in  terms of
 documentation) as well  as  consequences of  failure  to  demons tr at a
 che 15 percent VOC  emissions  reduction requirements,  net of
 growth.

      Section  182(a) (3) (A)  requires the States  to submit periodic
 inventories starting 3  years  after submission  of the  base year
 inventory required  by section 182 (a)  (1),  and every 3  years
 thereafter until  the area is redesignated to attainment.  The EPA
 recommends that-States  synchronize their schedules  for  developing

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the periodic inventories so that the second periodic inventory
(which would be due no later than November 15, 1998) is submitted
by February 13, 1997 and addresses emissions in 1996.  By
accelerating preparation and submittal of the 1996 periodic
inventory, the milestone demonstration that' is due for serious
and above areas by February 13, 1997 can be based on this
periodic inventory.  If similarly accelerated, future periodic
inventories would then also coincide with subsequent milestone
demonstrations.  The periodic inventory is to be based on actual
emissions and will cover VOC, NOX,  and carbon monoxide (CO)
emissions sources.  Like the base year inventory, the periodic
inventory is to be determined using typical peak ozone season
weekday emissions.

1.1  Purpose

     This document provides guidance on the procedures for
developing 1996 projected emissions inventories and control
measures which moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must
include in their rate-of-progress plans.  These elements of the
rate-of-progress plan will be due in draft form to EPA by May 15,
1993.  The fully adopted rate-of-progress plan is then due by
November 15, 1993.  The information provided in this document
contains references to additional in-depth information.

     The rate-of-progress plan must account for the effects of
growth experienced in a nonattainment area from 1990 to 1996.
One purpose of this document is to provide guidance on the use of
equations for projecting 1990 base year emissions to 1996.  The
document describes how growth factors, emissions reductions
associated with regulations, RE, and rule penetration should be
used in the equations.  Guidance is also provided for determining
whether projections should be based on actual versus allowable
emissions.  The information sources for developing growth factors
or indicators that could be used as part of the preparation of
the 1996 projected emissions inventories are also discussed.

     A key component of the rate-of-progress plan (due to EPA by
November 15, 1993) is the control measures that the State plans
to adopt and implement to reduce VOC emissions to meet the
15 percent VOC emissions reductions requirements, net of growth,
by November 1996.  One of the purposes of this document is ~c
provide information concerning the types of control -achnoic'cr^is
and strategies upon which control measures can be cased cc
control VOC and NOX emissions from point,  area,  and mobile
sources.  This document summarizes past and ongoing work bv EPA
in preparing CTG, ACT, and background information documents for
specific industrial sources or processes.  It also presents
information on existing and new Federal regulatory crcgrams for
VOC and NOX sources..  The broad range of mobile  source 'control
strategies, from vapor recovery to TCM's, is also discussed.

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1.2  Background

     The rate-of-progress plan must include documentation of  base
year emissions inventories, growth factors, -projected emissions
inventories, and control measures and associated emissions
reductions to demonstrate how a nonattainment area will achieve  a
15 percent VOC emissions reduction, net of growth, by November
1996.2  Calculation of the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction,
net of growth, includes the calculation of the following three
components:

          The 15 percent VOC emissions reduction from the 1990
          adjusted base year emissions inventory.

          The 1996 target level of emissions.

          Emissions reductions needed to fully offset emissions
          growth from 1990 through 1996.

      Figure  1 presents a flowchart of the  steps involved in
calculating  the required emissions reductions and the 1996  target
level of emissions.   The 15 percent VOC emissions reduction must
be calculated from the 1990 adjusted base  year emissions
inventory.   The 1990  adjusted base year emissions inventory must
exclude the  following:

      •    Biogenic emissions.

          Emissions associated with anthropogenic sources located
          outside of  a nonattainment area's boundaries.

          Emissions reductions that would  occur by 1996 as  the
          result of a Federal motor vehicle control program
           (FMVCP) promulgated by  January 1, 1990.

      •    Emissions reductions that would  occur by 1996 as  the
           result of the Reid vapor pressure  (RVP) control program
           (55 FR 23666, June  11,  1990).

 Emissions  reductions  associated with corrections to a  -
 nonattainment area's  reasonably available  control technology
 (RACT)  rules and inspection  and maintenance  (I/M) program,  and
 post-1990  emissions, reductions associated  with, the FMVC? and  RVP
 controls  are added  to the  15 percent VOC emissions reduction,  co
 calculate  total expected  reductions by  1996.  Total expected
 reductions  by 1996  are then  subtracted  from the 1990 rate-of-
  Section  182(b) has provisions for obtaining less that a
 15 percent VOC emissions reduction,  if certain stringent
 requirements are  met.   See section 8.4 of this document.

                                 8

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 FINAL BASE
YEAR  (1990)
 INVENTORY*
1990 RATE OF
  PROGRESS
  BASE YEAR
  INVENTORY
            SUBTRACT
            BIOGENICS,
          EMISSIONS OUTSIDE
         NONATTAIHMENT AREA
           ADD
         GROWTH
         1990
      ADJUSTED
      BASE YEAR
      INVENTORY
multiply
by 0.-15
  EMISSION
 REDUCTION
REQUIRED BY
    1996
             SUBTRACT
                FMVCP
            RVP REDUCTIONS
                                        B
                     A - B
     1996  ESTIMATED
        EMISSIONS
     (ANTHROPOGENIC)
               D
      C  -  D
                              TOTAL
                            EXPECTED
                           REDUCTIONS
                             BY 1996
TARGET LEVEL
  FOR 1996
                   REDUCTIONS NEEDS  BY
                    1996 TO ACHIEVE 15
                      PERCENT  NET OF
                          GROWTH	
                                                ADD
                                           REDUCTIONS FROM:
                                              FMVCP/RVP .
                                         RACT RULE CORRECTIONS
                                           I/M CORRECTIONS
DOES NOT INCLUDE' ML' -ENACTMENT BANKED EMISSION CREDIT
      Figure I.  Flowchart  for rate-of-progress calculations

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progress emissions inventory to calculate the  1996  target  level
of emissions.  The 1996 target level of  emissions is  then
subtracted from the 1996 projected emissions inventory  to  include
growth in the total emissions reductions needed to  achieve the
1996 target level of emissions.  In October of 1992,  EPA issued a
document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year  Emissions
Inventory and the 1996 Target for the  15 Percent Rate-of-Progress
Plans.  (See reference 1.)  The document  provides detailed
guidance for calculating the 15 percent  VOC emissions reduction
from the 1990 adjusted base year emissions inventory, and  the
1996 target level of emissions.  The guidance  provided  in  the
October 1992 document should be reviewed along with the guidance
in this document when preparing a rate-of-progress  plan.

     The 1990 base year inventory emissions are reported on an
annual  and seasonal basis.  For determination  of the  15 percent
VOC emissions reduction, net of growth,  emissions are based on
typical ozone season weekday emissions.  For the base year
inventory, these emissions are measured  for a  typical weekday
during  .the 1990 peak ozone season.  The  peak ozone  season  is the
contiguous 3-month period for which the  highest ozone exceedance
days have occurred in the previous 3 to  4 years.  The EPA's focus
on typical ozone season weekday VOC emissions  [an interpretation
of the  definition in section  182(b)(1)(B) of baseline actual
emissions during the "calendar year" of  enactment]  is consistent
with prior EPA guidance.  This stems from the  fact  that the ozone
national ambient air quality  standard  (NAAQS)  is an hourly
standard that is generally violated during ozone season weekdays
when conditions are conducive to ozone formation.   These ozone
seasons are  typically the summer months.

     Moderate ozone nonattainment areas  must also include  in
their  rate-of-progress plans  a demonstration that the ozone NAAQS
will be attained by November  1996.  Figure 2 presents a flowchart
of  the components  for developing  the control measures that form
 the basis of the rate-of-progress plan for an  attainment
 demonstration.  To determine  achievement of  the 15  percent VOC
 emissions reduction, net  of  growth,  the  1990 rate-of-progress
 emissions must be  subtracted  from the  1996 projection year
 emissions for VOC.  Failure  to achieve the 15  percent VOC
 emissions reduction, net  of  growth, will require application of
 additional control measures  to  the  1996  projection  year emissions
 for VOC.   If,  however,  the  15 percent  reduction, net  of growth,
 is confirmed by  this calculation,  the  next step is  to add
 biogenic  emissions and  emissions  in  the modeling domain but
 outside the  nonattainment area  into  the  1996 projection year
 inventory, and model  the  inventory using the empirical  kinetic
 modeling  analysis  (EKMA).   In addition,  NOX emissions must also
 be included  in an  attainment  demonstration modeling analysis.
 Therefore, States  will  need to develop a 1990  base  year and rate-
 of-progress  emissions  inventory  for  NOX, and then prepare  a
 projected NOX emissions inventory for  1996 for modeling.   Those

                                10

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          Effect  ot
           Current
         Regulations
           1990
     Rate-of-Progress
   Base Year Inventory
         for VOC
                   calculate.
          Apply More VOC
         Control Measures
                          No
    Effect of
     Current
   Regulations
   1990  Base  Year
   Inventory for
   NOx Emissions
        Projection
         Factors
     1996 Projection Year
     Emissions Inventory
            for VOC
              i
             Add Biogenic
             Emissions and
               Emissions
              Outside the
             Nonattainment
                 Area
                                   1996 Target Level
                                      of Emissions
                           Yes
              i
     Reduction Needs by 1996
      to Achieve 15 Percent
         Net of Growth
   Projection
    Factors
1996 Projection
Year Emissions
 Inventory for
      NOx
                      Perform EKMA
                    Modeling Analysis
                                                                     Achieve Attainment
                                                                       Demonstration?
Recalculate VOC and
   NOx Emissions
Inventories for 1996
                                                                          No
                                                        Yes
   Apply More VOC
     and/or NOx
  Control Measures
 Draft and Implement
   Regulations to
Incorporate Emissions
      Reductions
Figure 2.  Flowchart  for a  moderate ozone nonattainment area  attainment  demonstration

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States that also plan to account for CO emissions in  their EKMA
modeling should also provide documentation for a projected CO
emissions inventory for 1996 in their SIP submittals.

     Moderate ozone nonattainment areas are generally expected to
be able to demonstrate attainment of the ozone NAAQS  by November
1996 if they comply with the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction,
net of growth, requirements.  If the results of the modeling
analysis demonstrate attainment, the State and local  agencies
should proceed to draft regulations for the control measures
needed to achieve the necessary emissions reductions.  However,
if the results of the modeling analysis do not demonstrate
attainment, additional control measures must be applied to the
1996 projection year emissions to achieve the reductions  in VOC
and/or NOX needed to demonstrate attainment.

     Serious and above ozone nonattainment areas will .be  required
to submit a post-1996 rate-of-progress plan to EPA by
November 15, 1994 which describes, in part, how each  area will
achieve additional VOC emissions reductions of 3 percent  per year
averaged over each consecutive 3-year period from November 15,
1996 until the area's attainment date.  The plan must also
contain an attainment demonstration based on photochemical grid
modeling.  The EPA will distribute a separate guidance document
on the -development of the  post-1996 rate-of-progress  plan in
early 1993.  It is important to note that section 182(c)(2)(C)
allows for actual NOX emissions reductions (exceeding growth)
that occur after the base  year of 1990 to be used to  meet post-
1996 emissions reduction requirements, provided that  such NOX
reductions meet the criteria outlined in forthcoming  substitution
guidance.  Therefore, it is recommended that States track the
actual NOX emissions reductions occurring between 1990 and 1996.
More  specific guidance regarding NOX substitutions is currently
under development by EPA.   The substitution guidance  is planned
for  release  in the fall of 1993.

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2.0  GENERAL ASPECTS OF EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS

2.1  Use of Emissions Projections

     Emissions projections for sources within an air basin  are
needed—in conjunction with ambient modeling analyses—to
determine if the area will attain the NAAQS by the future
attainment date.  Emissions projections are also needed to
determine if the rate-of-progress requirements in the CAAA  will
be met.  See section 6, "Control Strategy Development
Projections" for a discussion of the methods for calculating  the
1996 projected inventory-

2.2  Rate-of-Progress Emissions Projections

     The following reviews the discussion in Guidance on the
Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target  for
the 15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans. (See reference 1.)    The
reader should be familiar with that document in order to benefit
from the subsequent discussion.

     The rate-of-progress plan requires the preparation of
several emissions inventories:

     •    1990 base year inventory.

          1990 rate-of-progress base year inventory.

     •    1990 adjusted base year inventory.

          1996 target level of emissions.

     A detailed discussion of the calculation of these
inventories is provided in the EPA document referenced above.
Appendix F of this document expands on the information provided
in the above referenced document by describing the projection of
emissions growth between 1990 and 1996, and the calculation of
the total amount of emissions reductions needed by 1996.
Additionally, Appendix F presents -examples of hypothetical-
control strategies.

2.3  Emissions Factor Adjustments

     Emissions factors, as well as  inventory calculation
methodologies, are continually being revised and improved based
on field and laboratory measurements.   The States should maintain
close coordination with the appropriate EPA Regional  Office as
they prepare the base year and other emissions inventories  to
insure that these inventories reflect current EPA guidance.   If.
the emissions factors or methodologies change significantly, SPA
may advise the States to correct their base year emissions
inventories to reflect these changes.

                               13

-------
     If emissions factors or methodologies change  significantly
before November 15, 1993—the due date for the  15  percent  rate-
of-progress plan—EPA may require the States to make corrections
to the base year emissions inventory and to the other
inventories/targets associated with the rate-of-progress plan
process.

     The following guidance is from the General Preamble for
Title I for emissions factor and methodology changes occurring
after November 15, 1993  (which will not affect  moderate
nonattainment areas, but has the potential to affect serious and
above nonattainment areas):  If, however, changes  occur after the
15 percent demonstration is submitted but before November  15,
1996, then the States would not have to make corrections for
purposes of reconciling attainment of the 15 percent milestone.
Serious areas should also refer to the General  Preamble
discussion on the rate-of-progress plan demonstration [section
III.A.4(f); 57 FR 13516-8] for guidance on changes that might
occur before November 15, 1994, and the impact  on  the 1990 rate-
of-progress plan demonstration.

2.4  Actual and Allowable Emissions

     Actual emissions from a source are the emissions based on
the source's actual operating hours, production rates,  and
control equipment for the processes carried out at the source.
Actual emissions take into consideration instances when the
operations are consistent and when deviations from normal
operating conditions occur.  Allowable emissions are a regulatory
element of the operating permit granted to.the  source or element
of  the applicable regulation which represents a regulatory limit
on  emissions that can be emitted  from the source.

     By permit provision, the actual emissions  cannot exceed the
 allowable emissions permitted by  the regulatory agencies except
 under very narrow conditions, such as upsets at the source.   The
 value of  the allowable  emissions  for a source is a regulatory
 element  important  in  the inspection and enforcement programs and,
•like  a  speed limit on the highway, is a gauge for  the enforcement
 agencies  to determine compliance  by the source. Allowable
 emissions  are  also an accounting  tool for the regulatory agencies
 in  their  effort  to balance  industrial- activity  within overall
 emissions  targets  for a particular air basin, to insure compliance
 with the  NAAQS  or  other statutory requirements. As discussed
 below,  the projections  for  the  rate-of-progress plan will
 generally be based on allowable emissions limits  (the enforceable
 emissions  rate  multiplied by the  expected activity level)  for the
 sources  within a nonattainment area whose allowable emissions
 will be reduced to meet the  progress requirements.
                                14

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     The following examples illustrate how the baseline for
future trading should be determined for a chemical manufacturing
process under four scenarios.

     •    Example 1:   Source currently uncontrolled that  will
                       remain uncontrolled.

          In this example, the baseline for future trading is
     calculated based on actual emissions.  For example, if the
     source is currently emitting 150 pounds per day (Ib/day) in
     1990 with no controls in the base year and no controls
     required in the projection year, future baseline emissions
     are determined by applying the applicable growth factor
     [Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or Economic Growth
     Analysis System (E-GAS) growth factors are recommended].
     Assuming that the growth factor for 1996 for this chemical
     manufacturer is 1.2, the baseline for future trading is
     180 Ib/day.

     •    Example 2:   Source currently uncontrolled that  will be
                       controlled.

          In this example, the baseline for future trading is
     calculated based on allowable emissions.  If the chemical
     manufacturer in Example 1  is required to install a control
     device reducing emissions by 75 percent (with a RE of
     80 percent), future baseline emissions for trading are
     determined by applying the applicable growth factor  (1.2)
     .plus the future control efficiency-  Future uncontrolled
     emissions would be 180 Ib/day.  Future allowable emissions,
     the baseline for future trading, are calculated by applying
     the control efficiency to the uncontrolled future level.
     This results in a baseline of 72 Ib/day for future trading.

     •    Example 3:   Source currently controlled that  will not
                       be subject to  additional control.

          In this example, the baseline for future trading is
     calculated based on actual emissions.  For example, if the
     chemical manufacturer in Example 1 currently has a control
     device installed reducing emissions by 50 percent  (with an
     30 percent RE! , base -/ear emissions would be 90 Ib/day.  The
     baseline for future trading would be calculated by applying
     the growth factor of 1.2 which results in 108 Ib/day as the
     baseline for future trading.

          In this example, the projection based on allowable
     emissions'may be higher than the projection based on actual
     emissions.  For example, if the regulatory or permit
     requirement for this source mandated an overall reduction of
     40 percent (with an 80 percent RE), emissions projected
     based on allowable conditions would be calculated bv

                                16

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     It is important to note that the projections are  not  full
allowable emissions  (i.e., the allowable emissions  limit
multiplied by the maximum theoretical activity level).  The
purpose for using the allowable emissions limit in  the
projections is to ensure that the control strategy  will meet the
rate-of-progress requirement if all sources do start operating at
their allowable emissions limit.

     The purpose of projecting the emissions inventories into the
future is not solely to predict what is likely to happen,  but
rather to test the ability of the regulations in the control
strategy to meet RFP goals and attainment and maintenance  of the
ozone NAAQS.  To adequately test the control strategy,  EPA
believes it is necessary to project on the basis of what sources
are allowed to do and to" evaluate the resulting air quality-
However, EPA also recognizes that 1) there are time constraints
related to assimilating the allowable emissions limit  data into a
usable format and 2) the assumption that all sources in a
nonattainment area will operate at their allowable  emissions
limit may not be valid.

     Therefore, as an alternative to using allowable emissions
for projections, EPA believes it is appropriate to  use actual
emissions in certain circumstances.  For sources or source
categories that are  currently subject to a regulation  and  the
State does not anticipate subjecting the source(s)  to  additional
regulation, the projected emissions may be based on actual
emissions.  In addition, for sources or source categories  that
are currently unregulated and are not expected to be subj ect to
future regulations,  the projected emissions may be  based on
actual emissions.  For all other  sources, i.e., sources that are
expected  to be subject to additional regulation, the projections
should be based on the new allowable emissions  (including  RE)  as
defined above.  Where a  State chooses to project emissions using
a different approach than described above, the State should get
 the approval of  the  appropriate EPA Regional Office before
proceeding.  In  addition,  the State must provide complete
documentation of  the approach and documentation and technical
 justification of  any assumptions.

      It is  important to  note  that, regardless of whether the
 projected emissions  are  based on  actual or allowable emissions,
 future  emissions  trades,  including offsets, must be based  on
 assumptions  that  are consistent with  the projected  inventory.   In
 other words, if  the  projected emissions from a source  are  based
 on actual emissions,  that  source  must use actual emissions in
 determining the  amount of  credit  available for offsets or
 emissions trading.   The  SPA's Emissions Trading-Policy Statement
 (51  FR 43814,  December  4,  1986) provides EPA's: policy  on
 emissions trading.   Also,  the proposed rules for economic
 incentive programs  (58  FR T1110,  February 23,  1993) will provide
 additional guidance  in this  area.

                                15

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     substituting the required 40 percent efficiency for the
     50 percent control device efficiency.  Projection year
     allowable emissions would be 122 Ib/day.  The baseline for
     future trading must be based on the actual emissions
     projection to ensure that the reductions are real.

          Example 4:   Sources  currently  controlled  that  will  be
                       subject  to  additional  control.

          In this example, the baseline for future trading is
     calculated based on allowable emissions.  If the chemical
     manufacturer in Example 3 is required to install additional
     control with an overall efficiency of 90 percent  (with an
     80 percent RE), the baseline for future trading is
     calculated by applying the growth factor (1.2)  to the base
     year emissions and adjusting the control level to reflect
     the 90 percent required control.  In this example, the
     baseline for future trading would be 50 Ib/day.

     Because the basis of allowing credit is of major concern to
sources in the State, the State must be certain to provide
adequate notice (e.g., during the public hearing) to the affected
sources as to what the baseline for future emissions trades will
be.  This is of particular concern where the projected emissions
are based on actual rather than allowable emissions.

     Using this approach, EPA has made concessions in two ways.
First, the projections will be based on expected activity level,
not maximum operating capacity.  Second,  EPA is not requiring
that the projections be based on allowable emissions limits for
all sources, only sources for which allowable emissions are
expected to change.

     The States will have the responsibility to adequately
document which projection methodology is used so that EPA will
have access -c trie dccunentaticn. during zhe SIP rev^ev crccsss
and for subsequent review of emissions reduction credits.

2.5  Effect of Rule Penetration and Rule Effectiveness


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regulatory requirements.  On the other hand,  an overestimation of
these factors can lead to continuing violations of the NAAQS at
monitoring stations even though the SIP provides a demonstration
of compliance.  The purpose of RE is to provide a better estimate
of the actual emissions in recognition of the fact that it is
impossible to ensure 100 percent effectiveness of the rules
(i.e., meeting the rule target with 100 percent of the sources
100 percent of the time).  See section 5.6 of this document for a
discussion of RE improvements.
                                18

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3.0  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GROWTH

     Economic activity is a factor influencing the level and  form
of anthropogenic pollution.  Economic activity levels are
determined by the forces of supply and demand.  Emissions are
determined by specific production processes (e.g./ flexographic
printing or rotogravure printing), inputs to those processes
(e.g. low solvent inks vs. high solvent inks), and the levels of
output [e.g., gallons  (gal) of ink used per unit time].  If no
change in the utilization of those processes and no additional
processes are anticipated, the relationship of output to
emissions seen in the past should be projected to occur in the
future.  If, however, EPA expects utilization rates to change,
new processes to be adopted, or input changes to occur, the
relationship between output level and emissions seen in the past
may not be an appropriate assumption for projecting future
emissions.

     Note that growth factors are not included in the
calculations of the 1990 adjusted base year inventory or the  1996
target.  Growth factors are needed, however, for the 15 percent
VOC emissions reduction demonstration as.part of the rate-of-
progress plan that is due on November 15, 1993 for all moderate
and above nonattainment areas.  Growth factors are also needed
for the attainment demonstration due on November 15, 1993 for
moderate ozone nonattainment areas using EKMA and on November 15,
1994 for moderate ozone nonattainment areas using UAM and all
serious and above ozone nonattainment areas.  States should
include the draft rate-of-progress growth factors in both
computer and written formats to EPA by November 15, 1992.  Two
sets of growth factors should be provided.  One set is used to
project the growth between 1990 and 1996 for rate-of-progress
plan purposes, and the other set is used to project growth
through the year of attainment for the attainment demonstration
for modeling purposes.   (These sets are basically the same for
moderate areas, which must demonstrate attainment by 1996.)   The
computer format for growth factor submittals is presented in
Table  1 of the document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base
Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent
Rate-of-Progress Plans.  (See reference 1.)  The following should
also be included with  the list of growth factors:  State
identification  (ID), county ID, zone code (if the growth factor
is  to  be used for a specific zone within a county) , source
category code  [either  Standard Industrial Classification  (SIC),
AFS  source classification code, or Area and Mobile Source
Subsystem  (AMS) source category code], growth factor reference
 [e.g., BEA, plant-supplied], and control information discussed
below.  Any information not contained in the spreadsheet file
 (e.g., which agency submitted, the "growth information and
assumptions made in preparing the information) should be
submitted on paper accompanying the PC disk.


                                19

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     Sources of information and guidance on economic activity
projections include the BEA's Regional Projections to 2040  (see
references 2, 3,  and 4), and EPA's Procedures for Preparing
Emissions Projections. (See reference 5.)  This last document
discusses the development of regional projections using BEA data
and lists the 57 industrial categories for which BEA data are
available (pages 17-23).  In those cases where a State may have
better information than the BEA forecast (e.g., the State has
specific information regarding planned expansion at a point
source resulting in an emissions increase), States should use
their own growth factors.
                                20

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4.0  GROWTH PROJECTIONS

     This section presents information for determining growth
factors for use in projecting" VOC and NOX emissions inventories.
This section discusses growth and retirement relationships,  EPA's
Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS),  and E-GAS.  Moderate ozone
nonattainment areas that will rely on EKMA modeling to
demonstrate attainment with the ozone NAAQS will need to provide
documentation for projected emissions inventories for 1996  for
both VOC and NOX in their SIP submittals.  Those States that plan
to account for CO emissions in their EKMA modeling should also
provide documentation for a projected CO emissions inventory for
1996 in their SIP submittals.  Therefore, States that plan  to
account for VOC/ NOX,  and CO emissions in their EKMA modeling
will need to develop growth and retirement factors for VOC,  NOX/
and CO emissions.

4.1  Growth and Retirement Relationships

     Industry growth and the addition of new plants is often
accompanied by the retirement of aging facilities.  It is
important to account for retirement rates when calculating
projected emissions and future control levels for two reasons.
First, projections can only be made when net growth after
retirement is determined.  Second, controls are often different
for new sources and existing sources of VOC.

     There are several sources of retirement rates for segments
of industry.  One that is generally available is the latest
version of the Internal Revenue Service  (IRS) Publication 534,
Depreciation  (used for the preparation of income tax returns) .
 (See reference 6.)  In this publication, the IRS develops
retirement rates from its depreciation guidelines, in which
annual retirement rates are estimated as the reciprocal of  the
depreciation period in years multiplied by 2.  These retirement
rates may be combined with growth rates to determine projected
emissions.   (Note that the BEA projected earnings data are
calculated net of plant retirements.-  That is, retirement of
existing sources has been taken into account.)  The EPA
publication entitled A Projection Methodology for Future State
Level Volatile Organic Compound Emissions  (VOC) from Stat-onar--
Sources Version 2.0  (see reference 7.), also provides IRS
retirement races and discusses their application for projecting
VOC emissions.  However, the latest version of the IRS
Publication 534 should be consulted in case the IRS has changed
the basis for depreciation rates from which retirement ratas are
calculated.

     Growth and- retirement rates also affect the emissions  levels
due to different control requirements for new and existing
sources.  Older facilities will often have less stringent control
standards than newer facilities.  As older facilities are

                                21

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retired, any new facilities that come  on-line may  replace the
output, but with substantially lower emissions.  Therefore,
different retirement rate and control  requirement  assumptions
must be made for new and existing  sources.  'Often,  the emissions
factor for future years will be substantially different from the
base year due to a change in an operating procedure,  spurred by
growth and retirement, for an industry segment.

4.2  Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS)

     The EPA has upgraded the EPS  to more effectively incorporate
future growth and controls.  Projections  will be made on the
county-level by source category.   An accompanying  software
utility will allow better growth data  to  be developed from BEA
regional projections.  Other enhancements have  made EPS more
flexible and easier to operate.

     The revised version of EPS  (EPS 2.0, July  1992)  is a FORTRAN
based  system, with a graphics option programmed in the
Statistical Analysis System  (SAS)  language. (See reference 8.)

     Projection factors, which represent  estimated changes in
activity levels between the base and projection years, are
assigned based on the first two digits of the SIC  code for point
sources and the first four digits  of the  area source category
 (ASC)  code for area and mobile sources.  The EPS 2.0 design
allows for projections of actual and/or allowable  emissions.  The
system recognizes four types of allowable emissions inventories:
 (1)  allowables based on activity level limits;  (2)  allowables
based  on emissions limits;  (3) allowables based oil emissions
factor limit; and  (4) allowables based on both  activity and
emissions factor limits.  The EPS  2.0  assumes projection factors
apply  to all allowable types except those that  represent
emissions limits.  (The user can override  this feature if
desired.)

     The projection.factors, currently  available - with EPS 2.0 are
generated by the user using a provided BEA  earnings and
population data base along with an SIC (ASC)/BEA data cross
reference data file.  This relates the BEA  categories to the
appropriate SIC or ASC emissions categories. Detailed
explanations of  this process and data  files can be found in the \
 documentation  for  EPS..2.0.  (See  reference 8.)

 4.3 Economic  Growth Analysis  System (E-GAS)

     A key component of  rate-of-progress  plan emissions
 inventories and  inventories  for use in photochemical grid
 modeling, is  the development of credible growth  factors for the
 existing inventories.  Credible growth factors  will require
 accurate forecasts of  economic variables  and associated
 activities  related to  ozone precursor  emissions.   The EPA's Air

                                22.

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and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory is developing E-GAS  to
forecast growth in economic variables and emission-generating
activities.  This system includes economic .models for each of the
ozone nonattainment areas required to use photochemical grid
modeling (i.e., serious and above ozone nonattainment areas and
moderate interstate areas), and modules for estimating fuel
consumption, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) ,  and physical output.
The modules translate growth in economic variables to growth in
activities associated with emissions of NOX/  VOC,  and CO,  which
are the primary precursors of ozone.  The scope of the system is
not intended to provide growth factors for moderate intrastate
areas because E-GAS will not be available in time to meet the
deadline for these areas.

     The E-GAS project is being coordinated with a number of
groups at the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
(OAQPS); these are the Technical Support Division/Emission
Inventory Branch, the Technical Support Division/Source Receptor
Analysis Branch, and the Air Quality Management Division/Ozone/CO
Programs Branch.  In addition, the current guidance for
developing projection inventories (see reference 9), has been
reviewed to maintain consistency between it and E-GAS.

     The system is being developed for the PC-AT class machine.
The anticipated minimum hardware requirements are 80286 CPU
(though 80386 CPU is strongly suggested), with math coprocessor,
EGA card/monitor, 4 MB RAM, 100 MB hard disk, and DOS 3.3 or
higher.

     The anticipated schedule for completion of E-GAS has two
major milestones:  (1) the first milestone, completed in
September 1992, is a first generation "beta version" of the
system, and (2) the second milestone is the final version of the
system scheduled for completion in March 1993.

     The EPA is not requiring the use of E-GAS because there may
not be enough time to revise control strategies for  the rate-of-
progress plans and still meet the November  15,  1993  statutory
deadline.  Nevertheless, States that can adequately  incorporate
new growth factors generated from the E-GAS into their 1996
projected inventories are encouraged to do  so.
                               23

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24

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5.0  CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR VOC's

     This section first presents a summary of generic VOC control
measures and then describes the source-specific guidance
documentation that has been published to date.

5.1  Stationary Source Controls

     Stationary source VOC control techniques can generally be
classified into the following two groups (see reference 10):

     •    Add-on controls that recover or destroy VOC.

          Process modifications, equipment, housekeeping
          practices, or material substitution which reduce or
          eliminate VOC emissions.

Add-on VOC Controls

     The most widely used add-on controls include combustion,
adsorption, absorption, and condensation.  The installation of
add-on controls often requires inclusion of equipment to capture
and route VOC emissions to an add-on control device.  The overall
efficiency of the add-on control depends on the capture
efficiency as well as the control device efficiency.  Flares,
boilers, and thermal incinerators have been shown to reduce the
uncontrolled VOC emissions by at least 98 percent.  These
controls work equally well on many types of VOC streams.  The
efficiency of adsorption, catalytic incineration,  absorption, and
condensers are more dependent on the VOC stream characteristics.

     The cost effectiveness of these devices is highly dependent
on the process to which they are applied.  Overall costs will
depend on whether or not a capture system is required,  and on the
flowrate and organic content of the VOC stream.   The OAQPS
Control Cost Manual (see reference 11),  provides guidance on
estimating the cost of incinerators (thermal and catalytic)  and
carbon adsorbers, the most common add-on controls  for reducing
VOC emissions.

Combustion

     Combustion devices simply burn or destroy VOC emissions.
This technique is generally applied if the stream has little or
no recovery value.  Combustion control devices include flares,
thermal incinerators,  catalytic incinerators,  boilers,  and
process heaters.  Incinerators can achieve control efficiencies
of at least 98 percent when properly operated.  Additional fuel
may be needed if the pollutant streams" are not capable of
sustaining combustion.  Flares are often used when disposing of
gas streams do not require supplemental fuel.   Flares have been


                                25

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shown to achieve greater than 98 percent destruction of VOC
emissions.

Adsorption

     Adsorption uses a solid material, most commonly carbon,  to
trap the organic vapors.  The VOC can then be recovered through
steam stripping.  Carbon adsorption is often more economical  than
combustion for stream of low organic concentration, which
increases the need for supplemental fuel during combustion.
Efficiencies of 95 percent or greater can be achieved through
carbon adsorption.

Absorption

     Absorption uses a liquid to trap the organic vapors.  This
process is usually not as economical as combustion or adsorption
because the low concentrations of organics require long contact
times and large quantities of absorbent.

Condensation

     Condensation changes the organics on the exhaust stream  from
the  vapor to the liquid phase.  It is often used to reduce VOC
concentrations of the exhaust gas prior to routing the stream to
other add-on devices.

Process Modifications and Substitution

     Process modifications and raw material changes are another
class of  techniques  for reducing VOC emissions.  Surface coating
emissions in many industries have been reduced by lowering the
VOC  content of the coatings and solvents used in the process.
A common  process change in the surface coating industry has been
the  use of more efficient spray techniques  (improved transfer
efficiency) which reduces the amount of paint used and thus the
VOC  emissions.

     Material substitution occurs in a case such as substituting
waterborne paints for solvent-borne paints in surface coating
operations.  Some examples of housekeeping practices resulting in
VOC  reductions are as follows:

           Keeping lids  on open  tank cold degrsasers when not  in
           use.

           Ensuring the  connection of  the vapor recovery line  in
           gasoline loading and unloading.

           Detecting  and repairing leaks at synthetic organic
           chemicals  manufacturing industry  (SOCMI) facilities and
           refineries.

                                26

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5.2  Motor Vehicles

     Motor vehicle controls can be classified into measures
reducing the per vehicle emissions or measures reducing VMT,  and
thus overall emissions.  The latter group of measures are
commonly classified as TCM's.

     The CAAA mandate a mix of national and area-specific motor
vehicle control measures to reduce per vehicle emissions.
National measures include RVP limits for gasoline  (recently
revised to conform with the CAAA), evaporative/running loss
controls, and tailpipe/extended useful life standards.  Area-
specific measures include Stage II (service station vehicle
refueling) controls, clean fuel fleet programs, the California
general clean fuels program, reformulated gasoline, and
enhanced I/M.

Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP)

Tailpipe/Extended Useful Life Standards

     The EPA has promulgated a final rule for new emissions
standards for 1994 and later model year light-duty vehicles
(LDV's) and light-duty trucks (LDT's) (56 FR 25724, June 5,
1991).  The standards will be phased-in: affecting 40 percent of
the model-year 1994 vehicle fleet, 80 percent of the model-year
1995 vehicle fleet, and 100 percent of the model-year 1996 and
later vehicle fleets.  The MOBILES.0 model, which was released in
December 1992,  incorporates the new standards into future year
emissions factors.

     California has adopted more stringent motor vehicle
standards, referred to as the California Low-Emission Vehicle
(LEV) program.   For information on the cost and effectiveness of
the LEV program, contact the California Air Resources Board.

Evaporative /Running- Loss Controls

     The new Federal evaporative test procedure will account for
hot soak and diurnal emissions,  running losses,  and resting
losses.' The MOBILES.0 model contains guidance on estimatina the
effectiveness of evaporative/running loss controls.

RVP Limits

     The gasoline volatility limits (RVP Phase I),  effective from
1989 through 1991, set gasoline RVP to 10.5 in American Societv
for Testing and Materials (ASTM)  Class C regions,  and. the
equivalent in other regions.  The'ASTM volatility class
represents the ASTM-recommended limits on the volatility of
gasoline sold in that state.  There are five volatility classes-
A, B, C, D, and E, where Class A is the least volatile and

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Class E is the most volatile.  The ASTM .class varies by season
and geographical area.  For  example, Louisiana is a Class  C area
in June and a Class B area in August.  The ASTM Class  is higher
(more volatile) in the winter months and less volatile in  the
summer months.

     Phase II limits are mandated in 1992 and subsequent years.
The Phase II regulations, which  were recently revised  to conform
with the CAAA, place limits  on EPA's authority to require  less
than 9.0 psi RVP in attainment areas.  The MOBILES.0 model should
be used to estimate the effects  of Phase II RVP limits.

Stage II3

     Stage II systems are vapor  recovery systems installed at the
pumps to reduce vehicle refueling emissions.  Section  182(b)(3)
of the Act requires that all ozone nonattainment areas classified
as moderate or acbove implement a Stage II vapor recovery program
as a control measure.  Section 202(a) (6) of the Act provides an
exemption from the Stage II  requirement for moderate ozone
nonattainment areas after EPA promulgates on-board vapor recovery
standards.  After consulting with the  U.S. Department  of
Transportation, EPA published in the Federal Register  its
decision against promulgating on-board vapor recovery  standards
 (57 FR 13220, April 15, 1992), removing the possibility of a
Stage II exemption for moderate  areas. However, on January 22,
1993, the United States Court of Appeals for the District  of
Columbia Circuit ruled that  EPA's decision not to require  on-
board vapor recovery controls be set aside and on-board vapor
recovery standards be promulgated pursuant to section  202(a)(6)
of the Act.  The EPA is currently studying a schedule  fo'r
complying with the court's  ruling.

     States are required  to  adopt Stage II rules for such  areas
under  sections 182(b)(3).   Section  202(a)(6) states that "the
 requirements of section  182(b)(3) (relating to Stage II gasoline
 vapor  recovery) for areas  classified under section  181  as
 moderate  for ozone  shall  not apply  after promulgation  of such
 standards  (i.e., on-board controls)  ..."

     These provisions  of  the Act indicate that a State's
 obligation  to  adopt  Stage II rules  for moderate areas  continues
 until  on-board rules  are  actually promulgated.  When on-board
 rules  are promulgated,  a  State- may  withdraw its Stage  II rules
 for moderate  areas  from the SIP  consistent with its obligation
 under  sections 1 82(b) (3)  and 202 (a) (6) .  Further guidance  on
 3Although Stage  II vapor recovery control, systems for gasoline
 service stations are discussed under- section 5.2 (Motor Vehicles)
 of this document, the emissions from gasoline service  stations
 are generally inventoried as an area source.

                                 28

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Stage II requirements  for  moderate nonattainment areas seeking
redesignation will be  forthcoming.

     There are compelling  reasons for keeping Stage II
requirements even after  an on-board rule is promulgated.
Vehicles equipped with on-board controls are not required to
enter the market until the fourth model year after the
requirement is adopted,  and it  will take several more years for
the fleet to turn over to  the extent that most cars in use have
on-board controls.   It could take 10-15 years before on-board
controls achieve the same  overall degree of VOC emissions
reductions as Stage  II controls.   In the meantime, moderate and
above nonattainment  areas  must  achieve under section 182(b)(1)(A)
a. 15 percent VOC emissions reduction by November 1996.  Moderate
areas are required to  achieve attainment of the ozone NAAQS by
November 1996.  Stage  II is one of the most promising ways to
comply with this requirement.

     The EPA is further  considering how this court ruling affects
a State's obligation under section 184(b)(2) regarding Stage II
or measures that get equivalent emissions reductions in the
Northeast ozone transport  region.  The section 184(b)(2)
requirement applies  to all areas in the region regardless of the
ozone designation or classification.  Guidance concerning the
Northeast ozone transport  region will be issued at a later date.

     In addition, the  CAAA mandate a study identifying control
measures capable of  achieving emissions' reductions comparable to
those achievable by  Stage  II controls.  .All areas within the
Northeast Ozone Transport  Region [defined in section 184(a) of
the Act] must adopt  Stage  II or comparable measures within 1 year
of completion of the study.  The study is to be completed in
November 1993.  Although Stage  II is not specifically mandated,
controls achieving equivalent reductions must be adopted.

     The EPA has published two  documents relating to Stage I~
controls:

     •    Technical  Guidance -  Stage II Vapor Recovery Systems
          for Control  of Vehicle Refueling Emissions at Sas-oline
          "^ "*' S^^T"* C "*' ~"i Ł[" ""'•=1/*>~^-^.'""I-^'S  ' S"^" •**• — — rL-r-^T-1-^^, " *"x v
 that  controls  -use have a demonstrated efficiency of 95 oeroer.t
 The Z?A  believes  thai this is a realistic rscuirerr.er.t because  _t
 15. S *"^ Łi o r^  i (•*• ^ ~ — "V^- Ł^ " ""^ ~* — --_ " ™ O IT" ""1 ~ CL •   ~~* ^ » St^* CT S """ *"" *™v T" *""* r** "*"* 3 rn * "" — • * <^* _^k
 efficiency  ; accounting for associated, wear and. eear, malfunctions
 or system problems that result in reduction of the certified
 eif ioiencv)  defends uoon the ac'cl"1 os.'""' " ~ ~v .—'•> ——/^.——

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regulation as well as the level of enforcement performed.   For
example, as shown on page 4-54 of the Stage II technical
guidance, the estimated in-use efficiency for a program where
annual inspections are conducted and all facilities dispensing
10,000 gals or more per month are regulated is 84 percent.   The
Stage II technical guidance also gives the estimated in-use
efficiency for other applicability and enforcement scenarios.
Inspections identify malfunctioning equipment, which contributes
to the reduction from the demonstrated efficiency.

     The CAAA establish a size cutoff of 10,000 gals of gasoline
dispensed per month with the exception of independent  small
business marketers.  The size cutoff for independent small
business marketers is 50,000 gals per month.  Independent small
business marketers are defined in section 324 of the Act.   The
10,000/50,000 gal exemptions will exclude an average of
10 percent of gasoline consumption from regulation.  The CAAA do
not prohibit States from establishing lower thresholds for
independent small business marketers.  With the difficulty  in
determining stations that fall under the definition of
independent small business marketer, many areas choose not  to
have a  separate exemption level for this group.  A single cutoff
of 10,000 gals per month would exclude an average of only
2.8 percent of gasoline consumption.

     The emissions inventory guidance document entitled
Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation - Volume IV:
Mobile  Sources,  (see reference 14), recommends the use of
MOBILES.0 emissions factors for modeling the effects of Stage II
controls on refueling emissions.  Further guidance on  the input
requirements can  be found on pages 43 through 45 of the guidance
document.

Clean Fuel Fleet  Program

     Serious,  severe, and extreme ozone nonattainment  areas [and
 CO areas with  design values of 16.0 parts per million  (ppm)  or
 greater] with  1980 populations of at least 250,000 must adopt the
 clean fuel fleet  program mandated by the CAAA.  The phase-in
 schedule for this program is as follows:
                                            •GQQ
                             20%             50%
      Heaw-dutv trucks      50%             50%
   :ec^f:_c standards that must be met are listed in sections 242
   id 245 of the Act.

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Reformulated Gasoline

     Reformulated gasoline is required in the nine largest  cities
with the most severe ozone pollution.  States may opt to have
other nonattainment areas included in this program.  Reductions
in toxic and VOC emissions of at least 15 percent are required in
1995, increasing to at least 20 percent in 2000.  The emissions
reductions from reformulated gasoline can be calculated using  the
MOBILE5.0 model.

Inspection and Maintenance

     The EPA has promulgated a rule regarding enhanced I/M
program requirements (57 FR 52950, November 5, 1992).  The  final
rule includes an I/M option including a biennial centralized
program with vehicles tested both in idling mode and at 2500 rpm.
In addition, a transient exhaust emissions test, an evaporative
canister purge system check, and an evaporative system pressure
test would also be required as well as a number of tests for
tampering.  Benefits of enhanced I/M programs should be modeled
using MOBILE5.0.

On-Board Diagnostic Systems

     The EPA has proposed a rule that will require on-board
diagnostic systems in all LDV's and LDT's beginning in model year
1994 (56 FR 48272, September 24, 1991).  On-board diagnostic
systems monitor emission-related components for malfunctions or
deterioration before such events cause emissions increases.
According to the proposed rule, on-board diagnostic systems will
be inspected as part of a State's I/M program.  Therefore,
emissions reductions resulting from the use of on-board
diagnostic systems will not be separately creditable toward the
15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements.

•Transportation Control Measures (TCM's)

     The EPA has recently developed guidance on an assortment of
TCM's.  The TCM's attempt to decrease traffic congestion,
especially during peak commuting hours, by providinc alterr.a-;."eŁ
          Programs for improved, public transit.

          Restrict-on cf certain reads 3r lanes to, cr

          passenger buses cr high-occupancy vehicles.

          Employer-cased transportation Tuar.acerr.er.t clans,
          including incentives.

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Trip-reduction ordinances.

Traffic flow improvement programs  that achieve
emissions reductions.

Fringe and transportation corridor parking facilities
serving multiple occupancy vehicle programs or transit
service.

Programs to limit  or  restrict  vehicle use in downtown
areas or other areas  of emissions  concentration,
particularly during periods  of peak  use.

Programs for the provision of  all  forms  of high-
occupancy, shared-ride services.

Programs to limit  portions of  road surfaces or certain
sections of the metropolitan area  to the use of
nonmotorized vehicles or  pedestrian  use,  both as  to
time and place.

Programs for secure bicycle  storage  and  other
facilities, including bicycle  lanes, for the
convenience and protection of  bicyclists in both  public
and private areas.

Programs to control extended idling  of vehicles.

Programs to reduce motor  vehicle emissions, consistent
with Title II, which  are  caused by extreme cold start
conditions.

'Employer-sponsored programs  to permit  flexible work
schedules.

Programs and ordinances  to  facilitate  nonautomobiie
travel,  prevision and utilization  of mass transir,  and
to generally  reduce the  need for single-occupant
vehicle travel,  as part  of  transportation planning and
development efforts of a locality, including programs
and ordinances applicable to new shopping centers,


?rccra~s  fcr  r.ev  ;cn.szruc_:-cn. and  ma-or  reccns-ruc-:.::r-3
of paths,  -racks,  cr  areas  solely  fcr  use by pedes-r^ar.
cr czr.er r.cnmc~ crazed means  cf transpcriacicn '.crier.
economically  feasible and in. the public  interest.


 and the marketplace cf pre-', 980 model  light-duty
vehicles and  trucks.

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The TCM implementation guidance for SIP's may be found  in an EPA
guidance document entitled Transportation Control Measures:
State Implementation Plan Guidance. (See reference  16.)   This
source also contains a list of TCM reference documents.
Additional travel demand management measures to relieve
congestion may be obtained from a U.S. Department of
Transportation (DOT) document entitled Evaluation of Travel
Demand Management Measures to Relieve Congestion.  (See
reference 17.)

     The EPA's Office of Policy, Planning & Evaluation is  doing
significant work in this area.  The new tools should be available
in the Spring of 1993.  Please call Jon Kessler (202-260-3761)  or
Will Schroeer (202-260-1126) with questions on these tools.

5.3  Other Mobile Sources

     Fewer control measures exist for other mobile sources.
Most control technology for these sources focuses on emissions
reductions from diesel engines.  Information will soon be
available for controls for railroads,  construction equipment, and
farm equipment.   The EPA's Office of Mobile Sources plans  to
provide guidance on emissions reductions that may be achieved
from off-road sources due to the use of reformulated gasoline.

     Controlling emissions from diesel engines can usually be
accomplished by tailoring the air induction, fuel injection,
fuel-air mixing,  and other elements of the combustion process.
Additionally, after-treatment of the exhaust gases may be
possible in some cases.  Diesel engine controls should be
adaptable to most off-road sources. (See reference 18.)   Although
no specific controls have been required to date,  EPA has targeted
nonroad diesel engines for first-time regulation.   Heavy-duty
nonroad (farm and construction)  equipment is specifically
targeted,  but recreational boats and small farm and garden
equipment may also be affected by future regulations.

5.4  Control Strategy Documentation for Stationary Sources

     The EPA has  implemented several VOC control programs  either
through the promulgation of regulations,  or by issuing guideline
documents for States to use in developing 'their own regulations.
Under secrion 11 1  of the Act,  EPA has  promulgated  new  source
performance standards (NSPS)  for several VOC'source cateaories
The NSPS are national standards- that affect new, modified,  or
reconstructed stationary sources.   Under section  112 of  the Act
EPA has promulgated national emission  standards for hazardous ai-
pollutants (NESHAPS).   The NESHAPS are national standards  that:
affect existing  and new stationary sources.   Some  of the NESHAPS
control VOC emissions from stationary  sources because  the  NESHAPS
regulate hazardous air pollutants  that are classified  as VOC   \s
a result of the  CAAA,  section 112  of the Act was amended to "  "

                               33

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authorize EPA to promulgate maximum achievable control  technology
(MACT) standards for stationary point and area sources.   For  area
sources, EPA can develop standards based on generally available
control technology  (GACT) or management practices. rather  than
MACT.  The MACT and GACT standards will be issued as national
standards that will affect existing and new stationary  sources.
Information on alternative control technologies and associated
costs used to support the technical basis for existing  NSPS and
NESHAPS is published in background information documents  (BID's)
for the proposed standards.  Information on alternative control
technologies and associated costs used to support the technical
basis for future NSPS, NESHAPS, MACT, and GACT regulations  is
also expected to be published  in BID'S or similar documents.

     The EPA has issued CTG documents for several VOC source
categories.  The CTG documents recommend presumptive levels of
RACT that States must use as a guideline in preparing their
SIP's.  The RACT rules adopted by States affect existing  and  new
sources.  The CTG documents issued before the CAAA are  classified
into Group I, II, and III source categories.  The EPA is
continuing to develop CTG documents for additional VOC  source
categories.  The EPA also publishes alternative control technique
 (ACT) documents for VOC source categories.  The ACT documents
provide technical and cost information on emissions control
techniques, but do  not recommend presumptive levels of  RACT,  for
stationary sources.  States may use the ACT documents to  support
development of their own regulations.

      The purpose of section  5.4 of this document is to  provide a
brief overview of the regulatory programs that EPA has  and  will
continue to implement, and to  provide references for the
technical and cost  documentation  that has or will be published to
 support the basis for the regulatory programs.

      Information on the  status of EPA's VOC control programs  is
 available through the Control  Technology Center  (CTC) at  (919)
 541-0800.  Copies of  BID'S and CTG and ACT documents can  be
 obtained .for a  fee  from  the  National Technical Information
 Service:

      National Technical  Information Service  (NTIS)
      5285 Port  Royal  Road
      Springfield, VA  22.161
      (703)  437-4600.

      Information  on control  technologies  is also available
 through certain State and  local  air pollution control agencies.
 The EPA focuses  its efforts  on controlling* VOC emissions  from
 source categories or subcategories  that  have a larger impact:  on
 national VOC emissions.   State and local  agencies can focus
 efforts on  source categories or  subcategories important in  their
 specific areas.   California's  South Coast Air Quality Management

                                34

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District (SCAQMD) has developed and adopted a number of
stationary (point and area) and mobile source control measures  in
its 1991 Air Quality Management Plan.  A list of the SCAQMD's
control measures is provided in Appendix D of this document.  The
list of stationary source control measures presented in
Appendix D is for source categories that are not covered by CTG
documents.   Copies of the management plan may be obtained from
the SCAQMD.

     The EPA recognizes that some of the new CTG documents and
Federal regulations for other programs (e.g., NSPS, NESHAPS, and
MACT) may not be promulgated in time to be used by States to
develop and adopt RACT rules or other control measures for their
final rate-of-progress plans (due to EPA by November 15, 1993).
In general, a State may only credit expected emissions reductions
toward meeting the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
requirements, net of growth, if the emissions reductions are
associated with control measures that the State has fully
developed,  adopted, and included in its rate-of-progress plan.
In general, a State may not take credit for expected emissions
reductions associated with Federal regulations that have not been
promulgated.  A State may choose to revise its rate-of-progress
plan after November 15, 1993, to replace existing control
measures with new control measures based on newly promulgated CTG
documents or Federal regulations.  The EPA is currently
investigating whether and under what circumstances a State may be
able to take credit for unadopted control measures in its rate-
of-progress plan.  Further guidance from EPA may be forthcoming.

Group I CTG Documents

     Prior to January 1978, EPA published 11 CTG documents for
15 source categories.  These Group I CTG documents were
summarized in a December 1978 document entitled Summary of Group
I Control Technique Guideline Documents for Control of Volatile
Organic Compound Emissions from Stationary Sources. (See
reference 19.)  The summary document provides the main ideas
found in the actual CTG documents, including information on
affected facilities,*VOC emissions, available control
technologies, recommended emissions limits, and expected control
costs.  The information in the summary document is also presented.
in the  SPA document entitled Issues Relating to yoc Regulation
Cutpoxnts,  Deficiencies, and Deviations:  Clarification to
Appendix D of -November 24, 1987 Federal Register.  (See
reference 20.)  The VOC source categories covered by the Group  I
CTG documents are as follows:

          Surface coating of cans.
          Surface coating of metal coils.
          Surface coating of paper products.
          Surface coating of fabrics.
          Surface coating of automobiles and light-duty trucks.

                                35

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          Surface coating of metal furniture.
     •     Surface coating for insulation of magnet wire.
     •     Surface coating of large appliances..
     •     Tank truck gasoline loading terminals.
     •     Bulk gasoline plants.
          Design criteria for Stage I vapor control systems at
          gasoline service stations.
     •     Storage of petroleum liquids in fixed-roof tanks.
     •     Refinery vacuum processing systems/ wastewater
          separators, and process unit turnarounds.
     •     Solvent metal cleaning.
     •     Use of cutback asphalt.

     Appendix B of this document provides the references for. each
of the Group I CTG documents.

Group II CTG Documents

     The EPA published eight CTG documents between January 1978
and January 1979.  These Group II CTG documents were summarized
in a December 1979 document entitled Summary of Group II Control
Technique Guideline Documents for Control of Volatile Organic
Compound Emissions from Stationary Sources.  (See reference 21.)
The summary document provides the main ideas found in the actual
CTG documents, including information on affected facilities, VOC
emissions, available control technologies, recommended emissions
limits, and expected control costs.  The information in the
summary document is also presented in the EPA document entitled
Issues Relating to VOC Regulation Cutpoints, Deficiencies, and
Deviations:  Clarification to Appendix D of November 24. 1987
Federal Register.  (See reference 22.)  The VOC source categories
covered by the Group II CTG documents are as follows:

     •    Leaks from petroleum refinery equipment.
     •    Surface coating of miscellaneous metal parts and
          products.
     •    Surface coating of flat wood paneling.
     •    Manufacture of synthesized pharmaceutical products.
     •    Manufacture of pneumatic rubber tires.
     •    Graphic arts - rotogravure and flexography.
     *    Petroleum liquid storage in external floating roof
          tanks.
     •    Leaks  from gasoline  tank  trucks and vapor coliecr-on
          systems.

     Appendix B of this document provides the references for each
of  the Group II CTG documents.
                                36

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Group III CTG Documents

     Since September 1982, EPA has published CTG documents  for
five additional source categories.  No summary document has been
prepared for the Group III CTG documents.  The EPA document
entitled Issues Relating to VOC Regulation Cutpoints,
Deficiencies, and Deviations:  Clarification to Appendix D  of
November 24, 1987 Federal Register summarizes the information  on
affected facilities, VOC emissions, available control
technologies, recommended emissions limits, and expected control
costs presented in the actual CTG documents. (See reference 22.)
The VOC source categories covered by the Group III CTG documents
are as follows:

     •    Manufacture of high-density polyethylene,
          polypropylene, and polystyrene resins.
     •    Leaks from synthetic organic chemical and polymer
          manufacturing equipment.
     •    Large petroleum dry cleaners.
          Air oxidation processes in synthetic organic chemical
          manufacturing industry.
     •    Equipment leaks from natural gas/gasoline processing
          plants.

     Appendix B of this document provides the references for each
of the Group III CTG documents.

Model RACT Rules

     On June 24, 1992, EPA's Ozone/Carbon Monoxide Programs
Branch of OAQPS issued a final set of model RACT rules to the  EPA
Regional Offices, (See reference 23.)  The model RACT rules cover
29 CTG source categories.  The model rules are to be used by
EPA's Regional Offices as a template for proposing Federal
implementation plans  (FIP's) under section 110(c)(1)  of the Act
for areas that fail to submit approvable RACT corrections
required under section 182(a)(2)(A) of the Act.  States may
obtain copies of the model rules from their EPA Regional Office.
However, the model rules should not be construed to be
operational guidance on the approvability of State rules.   States
may adopt rules that are different from the model rules that are
fully approvable for a SIP.   The basis by which State rules  2.ra
evaluated and findings are made are published in the document
entitled Issues Relating to VOC Curooints.  Deficiencies,  and
Deviations:  Clarification to Appendix D of November 24.  1987
Federal Register. (See reference 24.)

     A generic non-CTG RACT rule is- also included in the sei: of
model rules.  Where insufficient information is available to
determine RACT for a source or source category, the generic non-
CTG RACT rule may be considered as default RACT.  However,  it  is
recommended that those using the guidance seek additional

                                37

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information to tailor the rule to the affected source  or  source
category because the preferred method of establishing  non-CTG
RACT is on a case-by-case basis.

     Several of the model rules include requirements for
measuring capture efficiency.  When the model RACT rules  were
issued/ EPA's OAQPS was conducting a year-long study to
reevaluate EPA's position on capture efficiency testing.
Additional guidance will be forthcoming.

     Although the model rules are intended to provide  guidance
for EPA Regional Offices to use in developing FIP's, States  may
use the model rules as examples of what EPA generally  considers
consistent with EPA guidance.  Any questions regarding the model
rules  should be directed to Mr. David Cole/ EPA/OAQPS,, at
 (919)  541-3356.

New CTG Documents

     Section 183(a) of the Act requires EPA to issue CTG
documents for 11 stationary VOC source categories by November 15,
 1993.  The EPA published the  11 source categories for  which  it
will develop CTG documents in Appendix E of the General Preamble
 (57 FR 18077).  The source categories.are as follows:

          SOCMI distillation.
          SOCMI reactors.
          SOCMI batch processing.
          Wood furniture.
          Plastic parts coating  (business machines).
          Plastic parts coating  (other).
          Web offset  lithography.
          Industrial  wastewater.
          Autobody refinishing.
          Volatile organic liquid storage in floating  and fixed-
          roof tanks.
      •   Clean-up solvents.

      Draft  CTG documents have been prepared for SOCMI  batch
 processing,  SOCMI reactors and distillation, autobody
 refinishing, volatile organic liquid storage in floating  and
 fixed-roof  tanks, coating  of  wood furniture, coating of plastic
 parts, and  web offset lithography.   The  references  for these
 draft CTG documents  are  presented in Appendix B of  this document.
 A reference for  best  available control  technology  (BACT)/lowest
 achievable  emission  rate  (LAER) determinations for  industrial
 wastewater  processes  is  also  provided in Appendix B of this
 document.

      In addition,  section 183(b)  of  the  Act requires EPA  to
 prepare CTG documents for  two additional stationary VOC sources
 by November 15,  1993.  Section  183(b)(3)  requires EPA  to  issue a

                                38

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CTG document to control VOC emissions from aerospace coatings  and
solvents.  Section 183(b)(4) requires EPA to issue a CTG document
to control VOC emissions from paints, coatings, and solvents used
in ship building and repair operations.  A.brief summary of the
work on the CTG documents for these two source categories  is
provided in Appendix B of this document.  Information on the
status of the development of the new CTG documents, as well as
copies of the draft and final CTG documents when completed, may
be obtained through EPA's CTC.

     Section 182(b)(2) of the Act specifies the time schedule  for
the implementation of RACT rules for moderate and above ozone
non-attainment areas.  For sources covered by CTG documents issued
between the date of enactment of the CAAA (i.e., November  15,
1990) and the attainment date for the nonattainment area, RACT
rules must be implemented according to the schedule specified  in
the CTG document.  For sources covered by CTG documents issued
prior to enactment of the CAAA and for major stationary sources
not covered by a CTG document, RACT rules must be submitted to
EPA by November 15, 1992, and implemented by May 31, 1995.  The
EPA recognizes the potential schedule problem between submitting
RACT rules for major stationary sources by November 15, 1992,
which may be covered by one of the CTG documents it plans to
issue in November 1993.  Therefore, EPA has established the
following general time table for States to submit their RACT
rules for sources that are identified in a November 15, 1992
submittal as being covered by a post-enactment CTG document:

          On November 15, 1992, the State must submit a list of
          major stationary sources that it anticipates will be
          subject to one of the CTG documents being prepared for
          the 13 stationary VOC source categories identified
          above, which EPA plans to issue by November 15, 1993.

          For those major sources on the list submitted by the
          State in the 1992 submitcal that are not covered by  a
          CTG document that EPA has issued by November 15,  1993,
          the State must submit a RACT rule by November 15, 1994
          that requires implementation of RACT by May 15, 1S95.


          Sect C_Cn  3 2 ' 2.  2."" i ~ —"~ *;'"" ~ •"'•"" ~" •" — - "~ = — 3 -=cr — — —  '	 — ^
          tne _zne schedule set fcrth in the relevant. "G
          dccunent.
          adeemed and SPA approved \ir.cler sect^cn ' z2 ,'c]  2V :
          tc. SPA's issuance of an applicable 'CTG document, i
          will wcr:< with the State to determine whether the

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          existing rule should be revised once a CTG has been
          issued that would apply to that source.

     For further details on preparing RACT rules to meet the
schedule required by section 182(b)(2) of the Act, the reader  is
referred to Appendix E of the General Preamble  (57 FR 18077) and
also a memorandum from G.T. Helms dated August 7, 1992 on
"Determining Applicability for Sources Subject to Pending New
Control Technique Guidelines (CTG's)."

Non-CTG RACT Rules

     Prior to enactment of the CAAA, it was EPA's policy to
require non-CTG major stationary sources located in ozone
nonattainment areas that emit or have the potential to emit
100 tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC to apply RACT.  Section
182 of the Act lowered the emissions threshold for the definition
of "major stationary source" for many of the ozone nonattainment
classifications.  The major stationary source thresholds for
serious, severe, and extreme ozone nonattainment areas are,
respectively, 50, 25, and 10 tpy or more of VOC or NOX.   The
major stationary source threshold for marginal and moderate ozone
nonattainment areas in an ozone transport region is 50 tpy or
more of VOC and 100 tpy or more of NOX.  The major stationary
source threshold for attainment areas in an ozone transport
region is also 50 tpy or more of VOC and 100 tpy or more of NOX.
The major stationary source threshold for intrastate marginal  and
moderate areas and all other nonattainraent areas  (i.e.,
submarginal, transitional, and incomplete/no data) remains at
100 tpy or more of VOC or NOX.  Lowering the threshold for major
stationary sources will increase the number of sources subject to
non-CTG RACT rules.  Emissions reductions associated with
lowering the threshold in non-CTG RACT rules that occur prior  to
November 15, 1996 in a nonattainment area are creditable toward
the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements, net of
growth.

ACT Documents

     The EPA has published ACT documents for halogenated solvent
cleaners, application of traffic markings, automobile
 refinishing, ethylene oxide sterilization/fumigation operations,
and organic waste processes.  The references for these ACT
documents are presented in Appendix B of this document.  The ACT
documents are good sources of technical information, including
emissions control technologies and  expected costs.  Unlike CTG
documents, ACT documents do not provide recommended RACT limits.
The five ACT documents published  to date have been briefly
 summarized, in Appendix S of this document.  Information on these
 and new ACT documents that EPA publishes may be obtained from  the
CTC.
                                40

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New Source Performance Standards

     Under section 111 of the Act, EPA has promulgated NSPS  to
control VOC emissions from facilities in the following source
categories:
                                                   VOC equipment
          Bulk gasoline terminals.
          Municipal waste combustors.
          On-shore natural gas processing plants:
          leaks.
          Petroleum dry cleaners.
          Petroleum refineries:  equipment leaks.
          Petroleum refinery wastewater systems.
          Polymer manufacturing.
          Publication rotogravure printing.
          Rubber tire manufacturing.
          Storage vessels for petroleum liquids.
          Storage vessels for volatile organic liquids.
          Synthetic fiber production.

          Surface coating operations:
               Automobiles and light-duty trucks.
               Beverage cans.
               Flexible vinyl and urethane coating and printing.
               Large appliances.
               Magnet tape.
               Metal coil.
               Metal furniture.
               Plastic parts for business machines.
               Polymeric coating of supporting substrates.
               Pressure sensitive tapes and labels.

     •    SOCMI air oxidation unit processes.
     •    SOCMI distillation unit operations.
     •    SOCMI equipment leaks.

     Appendix C of this document provides the  Code of Federal
Regulation (CFR) citations for the NSPS, and EPA publication
numbers for the BID'S developed to support the technical basis
for the NSPS.  The BID'S contain technical information on the
emissions sources and emissions, alternative controls considered
during the development of the NSPS, the performance of the
alternative controls evaluated, and estimated  control costs.

     On May 30, 1991, EPA proposed an  NSPS to  control air
emissions from municipal waste landfills (56 FR 24468) .  The NSPS
is expected to be promulgated in the fall of 1993.  The prooosed
NSPS would limit emissions from certain new and modified
landfills and would establish guidelines for States to follow in
preparing plans to limit emissions from existing landfills.
Technical information on emissions estimates and control
techniques for municipal solid waste, landfills is  presented in
                                41

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the document entitled Air Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste
Landfills - Background Information for Proposed Standards and
Emission Guidelines; (See reference 25.)  The proposed and final
regulations should be consulted for the definition of affected
facilities and control requirements.  For further information on
the NSPS, contact EPA's Emission Standards Division of OAQPS.

Section 112 Standards

     The EPA has promulgated NESHAPS to control hazardous air
pollutants from the following VOC source categories:

     •    Vinyl chloride production plants.
          Benzene emissions from equipment leaks.
     •    Benzene emissions from benzene storage vessels.
     •    Benzene emissions from coke by-product recovery plants.
     •    Benzene emissions from benzene transfer operations.
     •    Benzdne waste operations.

     Appendix C of this document provides the CFR citations  for
the NESHAPS, and provides EPA publication numbers for the BID'S
developed to support the technical basis for the NESHAPS.  The
BID'S contain technical information on the emissions sources and
emissions, alternative controls considered during the development
of the NESHAPS, the performance of the alternative controls
evaluated, and estimated control costs.

     The EPA will be developing several programs to control
hazardous air pollutants under section 112 of the Act.  Many of
the hazardous air pollutants are covered by the definition of
VOC.  The document entitled Guidance on the Relationship Between
the 15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans and Other Provisions of the
Clean Air Act  (to be released in the spring of 1993) provides a
detailed description of the Federal programs that will be
developed under Section 112 of the Act.  The programs include
MACT standards, early reduction programs, major modifications to
 existing sources, and standards more stringent than MACT to
protect  the public health.  The following documents have been
published for early reduction programs:

      •    Enabling Document for Regulations Governing Compliance
          Extensions  for Early Reductions of Hazardous Air
          Pollutants.  (See  reference 26,)

      •    Questions and Answers about  the Early Reductions
          Program.  (See reference 27.)

          Procedures  for Establishing  Emissions for Sarlv
          Reduction Compliance Extensions.  (See reference 28.)
                                42

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     On July 16, 1992, EPA published in the Federal Register  a
revised list of 174 categories and subcategories of sources for
which it intends to develop MACT standards (57 FR 31576).  On
September 24, 1992, EPA published in the Federal Register a
proposed schedule for developing MACT standards for the
174 categories and subcategories (57 FR 44147).  The final
schedule for preparing MACT standards is expected to be finalized
in September of 1993.

     The EPA proposed a rulemaking for an hazardous organic
NESHAP (HON) on December 31, 1992 (57 FR 62608).  The final rule
is expected to be promulgated in late 1993 or early 1994.  The
proposed rule would regulate the emissions of organic hazardous
air pollutants/ all of which are classified as VOC's, from SOCMI
processes and from equipment leaks in seven non-SOCMI processes.
The SOCMI processes include process vents, transfer operations,
storage vessels, and wastewater operations.  The seven non-SOCMI
processes are as follows:

          Styrene/butadiene rubber products.
          Polybutadiene rubber products.
          Chlorine production.
          Pesticide production.
          Chlorinated hydrocarbon use.
          Pharmaceutical production.
          Miscellaneous butadiene use.

Controls must be installed to control SOCMI emissions points
other than equipment leaks within 3 years after promulgation  of
the rule.  The compliance schedule for the equipment leaks in
SOCMI and the seven non-SOCMI processes is staggered, starting
6 months after promulgation.  The reader is referred to the
Federal Register notice of proposed rulemaking for further
details.

     The EPA proposed a NESHAP for coke oven batteries in 1987.
On December 4, 1992, EPA withdrew the 1987 proposal (57 FR 57403)
and proposed a new NESHAP for coke oven batteries (57 FR 57534) .
Although the BID for the original proposal (see reference 29)   has
not been updated, some of the information in the BID is still
relevant to the new proposal.  Materials prepared to support  the
new proposal ase contained in the docket for the proposed
rulemaking.  The NESHAP is expected to be promulgated in the
spring of 1993.

Other Federal Control Measures

     The EPA is planning to prepare VOC control measures for
consumer and cdmmercial products, adhesives,  application of
agricultural pesticides, marine vessel loading operations,
architectural and industrial coatings, autobody refinishing,  and
ship building operations and ship repair.  The control measures

                                43

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for these source categories may be published as future BID'S/  ACT
documents, or possibly as CTG documents.  The developmental
status of the control measures and the documents EPA anticipates
issuing to support the technical basis for the control measures
for these source categories is presented in Appendix E of  this
document.

     The EPA is also preparing standards under the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act  (RCRA) to control organic  air
emissions from hazardous waste treatment/ storage/ and disposal
facilities  (TSDF's).  Phase I standards were promulgated on
June 21, 1990  (55 FR 25454).  The Phase I standards cover
equipment leaks and process vents.  Technical information  on
emissions estimates and control techniques for facilities  covered
by the Phase I standards are presented in the document entitled
Hazardous Waste TSDF/s - Technical Guidance Document for RCRA Air
Emissions Standards for Process Vents and Equipment Leaks.  (See
reference 30.)  Phase II standards were proposed on July 22,  1991
 (56 FR 33490) .  The Phase II standards have been proposed  to
cover tanks, surface impoundments/ containers/ and miscellaneous
units.  Technical information on emissions estimates and control
techniques  for facilities covered by the Phase II standards  are
presented in the document entitled Hazardous Waste TSDF/s  -
Background  Information for Proposed RCRA Air Emissions Standards.
 (See reference 31.)  The Phase II standards are expected to  be
promulgated in the fall of 1993.  The Phase I and II regulations
should be consulted for the definitions of the affected
facilities.  For further information on the Phase I and  II
standards/  contact EPA's Emission Standards Division of  OAQPS.

5.5  Rule Effectiveness Improvements

     Many States with preexisting nonattainment areas have
already  adopted rules defining RACT for most of the larger
 sources,  including major non-CTG categories.  In such cases,
 there is  considerable concern  about what additional measures are
 needed to meet the  1 5 percent  VOC rate-of-progress requirement.
 One  method  of  achieving creditable emissions reductions  from
 stationary  sources  in such areas  is to improve the implementation
of existing regulations.  This is referred to as RE improvement.
 These improvements  are  subject to the same creditability
 constraints as are  the other- emissions reductions.4  Rule
 effectiveness  improvements must reflect real emissions reductions
 resulting from specific  implementation program improvements.
 Actual emissions  reductions  must  result from improving RE;  simply
 calculating a higher RE  using  a different methodology is not
 creditable.
 4For example,  some RACT rule corrections that result in improved
 RE may be creditable; a discussion of this  appears  in  section
 III.3.a.4 of the General Preamble (.57 FR 13509).

                                44.

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     Rule effectiveness improvements must be documented at  a
minimum by conducting a post-implementation  (after the
implementation of RE improvement programs) source-specific
emissions study.  Two methods ar.e available 'for calculating
creditable RE improvements; both require that a post-
implementation Stationary Source Compliance Division  (SSCD)
Protocol Study be conducted.  The first method involves pre- and
post-RE improvement implementation studies as delineated by SSCD.
For example, if the RE increases from 50 percent to 75 percent,
the emissions reductions associated with this improvement would
be creditable.  The second approvable method uses the EPA default
value of 80 percent for the RE value prior to the rule-
effectiveness improvement program.  Thus, if the results of a
SSCD protocol study show 85 percent RE after implementation, the
increase in emissions reductions associated with the improvement
from 80 to 85 percent would be creditable toward the 15 percent
rate-of-progress requirement.  Additional discussion of RE,
including provisions for the calculation and use of category-
specific RE factors, is available in Guidelines for Estimating
and Applying Rule Effectiveness for Ozone/CO State Implementation
Plan Base Year Inventories. (See reference 32.)

     If a State can show an improvement in the RE of a SIP
provision (for further information refer to the December 21, 1992
memorandum from John B. Rasnic, Director SSCD, to Regional Air
Division Directors, regarding "Revised Rule Effectiveness
National Protocol") above the default value through the use of an
EPA protocol test, then the emissions reductions associated with
the improvement would be creditable toward meeting the 15 percent
VOC emissions reduction requirement.  If the EPA protocol test
for the effectiveness of a SIP rule indicates that the RE was
less than the default value, further reductions would be
necessary to meet the statutory requirements.

     The SPA plans to issue guidance on the quantification of RE
improvements in early Spring 1993.  Suggested measures for
improving RE are as follows:

Agency Compliance

     •    Increase number of people in inspection program.
          Increase frequency and nature of inspecrions.
          Implement and improve recordkeeping requirements
          (perhaps automated to estimate that they are in
          compliance over time).
     •    Improve follow-up program once violations are found.
          Establish a formal documentation and enforcement
          system.
          Implement an SSCD protocol which is self-monitoring.
     •    Facilitate communication through publicity.
                               45

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Source
          Implement internal audits that would routinely  review
          and trigger remedial action—an automatic assessment
          program.
          Improve adequacy of recordkeeping.
          Assign responsible people.
          Implement a periodic checking system with explicit
          follow-up to evaluate  the on-going system.
          Implement an SSCD protocol which is self-monitoring.
Improvements in Technology
          Implement an operation and maintenance program for
          control equipment  (e.g., monitoring and  alarm  system
          for the equipment).
Education
Rules
          Increase  training of plant  operators.
          Require qualified and trained inspectors.
          Implement periodic updating of training programs and
          periodic  training.
          Revise  complex and ambiguous rules.
          Create  methodologies to simplify rules.
     The  following items provide several suggestions .for what EPA
 will accept  in a State's SIP to demonstrate adoption and
 implementation of RE improvements:   adoption of  a rule,  a letter
 to the Governor,  additional staff,  or incorporation of  the
 activity  in  a permit.   The RE improvements will  be evaluated on a
 case-by-case basis.  Other guidance on evidence  of adoption and
 commitment is found on pages 218-220 in Workshop on Requirements
 for Nonattainment Area Plans. (See  reference 33.)

 5.6 Quantification of Rule Effectiveness Improvement Programs

     In order to estimate the amount of creditable emissions
 reductions from RE improvements, States will need to calculate
 the RE values associated with their improvement  programs.  These
 values will  be developed using a methodology similar to that for
 calculating  the base year RE values.

     The  EPA is currently developing a list of specific control
 measures  that will yield real improvements in RE.  A. group of
 experienced  compliance experts, comprising State and local
 agencies/ EPA Regional Offices, and EPA Headquarters, will assess
 the. relative weights for the groups of measures.   Furthermore,
 some groups  of measures will also contain several different

                                 46

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possible levels of activities (e.g.,  under the group "nature of
regulation," one level would be "possible ambiguity or deficiency.
in rule") .  These levels of activities will also be weighted
relative to one another.  The EPA will employ the use of the
Delphi method to reach consensus on the weightings.  (The Delphi
method involves the solicitation of opinions from experts on a
subject/ the compilation of the opinions/ and the determination
of an average opinion based on the averaging of the collected
opinions.)  The States will determine a weighted value for each
group by multiplying the weight of each level of activity by the
weight of its group.  The values would be summed to provide a raw
score, which would be an initial relative indicator of the new RE
value.

     The table will also include instructions for increasing or
decreasing the weight if it is determined that certain groups of
activities or conditions performed simultaneously provide
enhanced or decreased effect on RE.  The grouping of RE
improvement measures, the weights that EPA assigns to these
measures, and the description of how the scores are to be used to
compute the improved RE will be provided in forthcoming EPA
guidance expected in Spring 1993.
                               47

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48

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6.0  CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS

6.1  Introduction

     This section discusses the purpose and elements of emissions
projections, the types of emissions projections that must be
developed to meet the requirements for the rate-of-progress
plans/ and several alternative methods or equations that can be
used to calculate the 1996 projection year emissions inventories
for point, area, and mobile sources.  Moderate ozone
nonattainment areas that will rely on EKMA modeling to
demonstrate attainment with the ozone NAAQS will need to provide
documentation for projected emissions inventories for 1996 for
both VOC and NOX in their SIP submittals.   Those States that also
plan to account for CO emissions in their EKMA modeling should
also provide documentation for a proj ected CO emissions inventory
for 1996 in their SIP submittals.  The guidance presented in this
section is applicable for projecting VOC,  NOX,  and CO emissions.

     In general, projection year emissions are to be based on
allowable ozone season typical weekday emissions.  However, as
discussed in section 2.4 of this document, EPA recognizes that
1) there are time constraints related to assimilating the
allowable emissions limit data into a usable format and 2)  the
assumption that all sources in a nonattainment area will operate
at their allowable emissions limit may not be valid.  Therefore,
as an alternative to using allowable emissions for projections,
EPA believes it is appropriate to use actual emissions in certain
circumstances.  For sources or source categories that are
currently subject to a regulation and the State does not
anticipate subjecting the source(s)  to additional regulation, the
projected emissions may be based on actual emissions.  In
addition, for sources or source categories that are currently
unregulated and are not expected to be subject to future
regulations, the projected emissions may be based on actual
emissions.  For all other sources, i.e.,  sources that are
expected to be subject to additional regulation, the projections
should be based on the new allowable emissions (including RE) .
The reader is referred to section 2.4 of. this document for
detailed guidance on EPA's policy concerning the use of actual or
allowable emissions for emissions projections.

     The States will have the responsibility to adequately
document which projection methodology is used so that EPA will
have access to the documentation during the SIP review process
and for subsequent review of emissions reduction credits.   The
purpose of this section is to describe and illustrate the various
projection methodologies which States can use for preparing
emissions projections.
                               49

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6.2  Purpose and Elements of Emissions Projections

     The purpose of developing a 1996 projected inventory is  to
determine the emissions reductions that will be needed to meet
reasonable further progress requirements or to attain the ozone
NAAQS.  After the emissions reductions are determined, States
must then prepare, adopt, and implement legally enforceable
control measures needed to achieve the emissions reductions.
Projection year emissions are to be based on ozone season typical
weekday emissions.

     Actual emissions, for purposes of projections, are to be
based on a source's actual operating hours, production rates, and
control equipment for the processes carried out at the source.
Actual emissions take into consideration instances when the
operations are consistent and when deviations from normal
operating conditions occur.

     Allowable emissions, for the purposes of projections, are to
be based on expected future operating conditions  (operating rates
or throughput and hours of operation) and maximum emissions
limits.  Maximum emissions limits may be process-based emissions
factors  [e.g., pounds of VOC per gallon  (Ib VOC/gal) of coating
applied, Ib VOC/ton processed], capture and/or control device
efficiencies, or emissions rate limits  (e.g., tpy, Ib/day) .
Emissions factor limits and capture and/or control device
efficiency limits should take precedence over emissions rate
 (time-based)  limits when both are available.  In determining  the
maximum emissions limit, existing regulations and permits must be
considered in addition to future planned regulations and permit
modifications.

      Emissions rate limits  (mass/time) should only be used if
there are procedures for demonstrating compliance with these
limits.  Emissions rate limits may be expressed as annual ton-
per-year limits  (long-term) or short-term limits on a monthly,
daily, or hourly basis  (e.g.,  Ib/day) .  The permit must contain a
method for determining compliance with these limits.  Long-term
 (e.g., annual average) limits  should be used in the calculation
of projection year emissions.  Short-term limits  [e.g., Ib/day or
pounds per hour  (Ib/hr) 3 may be based on maximum operating
conditions to allow for fluctuations in operation.  If an
emissions rate limit  (mass/time) is used, annual, long-term limits
should be converted to daily limits based on the source's
operating schedule.  The long-term limits are more representative
of expected  activity, while the short-term limits are more
representative of maximum activity.
                                50

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     The following data elements are also important for
projections and have been discussed previously in this document.

     •    Growth factors.
     •    Control efficiency.
          RE.
     •    Rule penetration.

6.3  Types of Emissions Projections

     The Current Control Projection estimates projection year
allowable emissions, accounting for controls required in the SIP
by November 1990 (whether or not they have yet been implemented)
and growth.  The Control Strategy Projection estimates projection
year allowable emissions accounting for future control strategies
(those that are not yet in the SIP) and growth.  The Current
Control Projection incorporates growth between 1990 and 1996 and
adjusts the emissions to reflect existing regulatory or permit
conditions.  The Control Strategy Projection builds on the
Current Control Projection by incorporating future control
strategies.  These future control strategies may take the form of
areawide regulations affecting a source category or a specific
source.

     The Current Control Projection is used to assess the
additional reductions needed by an area to meet 1996 rate-of-
progress (moderate and above areas must meet the 15 percent VOC
emissions reduction requirements, net of growth) and/or
attainment date deadlines  (November 1993 for marginal areas and
November 1996 for moderate areas).  The Current Control
Projection reflects existing control levels, which are adjusted
to reflect the allowable emissions factors or mass emissions
rates.

     The Control Strategy Projection will reflect the controls
mandated by the CAAA, plus additional controls needed to meet
rate-of-progress targets.  It is anticipated that several
iterations of the Control Strategy Projection will be completed
to determine the mix of control measures needed to meet the rate-
of -progress targets, taking into account the costs of these
measures.

6.4  Methods for Calculating Point, Area, and Mobile Source 1996
     Projection Year Emissions

     The following discussion is divided into separate sections
for point,  area, and mobile sources, because the methods for
calculating the 1996 projection year emissions differ for these
three emissions source types.  Detailed projection equations are
presented for'point sources.  The equations presented for area
and mobile sources parallel those used within AIRS-AMS.  The last
section is a brief discussion of the projection equations from

                                51

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EPS, which may also be used by  the  States  to complete emissions
projections.  The equations presented for  point,  area,  and mobile
sources can be used to project  either allowable or actual
emissions.

     The EPA is in the process  of developing a PC-based multiple
projections computer  system to  aid  States  in developing 1996
projected inventories.  The equations used in this system will
parallel those used in EPS.   Unlike EPS, however,  the system will
be used strictly for  preparing  emissions projections rather than
as a preprocessor for preparing UAM inputs.   The system will also
produce transaction files for uploading emissions projections to
AIRS after  the necessary  data elements have been added to AFS.
States may  also complete  their  projections using the detailed
equations presented in the following sections.  It is believed
that these  detailed equations will  provide the best emissions
projections.  However, projection year inventories based on any
of  these options will be  accepted by EPA.

Point Source Emissions Projections

     This section presents five equations  for calculating the
1996 projection year  emissions.  The equations presented here
assume that the calculations  will be on a  source-specific basis.
The following data are needed to calculate 1996 projection year
emissions:

          Base Year  (1990) Data:
               Operating  rate (ozone season).
               Emissions   (ozone season).
               Emissions  factor.
               Control efficiency (capture and control device
               efficiency).
               RE.

      •    Projection  Year Data:
               Growth factor.
               Allowable  limits —  emissions' factor.
                                    control efficiency. .
                                    emissions rate.
               RE.
                 •5rr.issi.cns  2-.LL~i.ri
                                          ^    ' ii. ^^^C^iJ \~fi3 -i ^~

 s.r.issLcns ars calculated cy using emissions factcrs, the
 crc~setter, year sr.issicns can be calculated in the sar.s manner
 «-«5lS — *- ^ — . *~ w'->«rZr*- C% — — - .-^l — Gi *_ *^P ,'>'••>.«.* C^^IiS -fc'^AW.— Ci S- —>*_'.- SMT'-!. JTv^ll /  ' ', v • N.J * /





 test]- ,  the emissions projection calculation will be obtained by

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applying RE and growth factors to the 1990 emissions, rather  than
being based on the operating rate.

     The calculation methodology for the 1996 projected emissions
depends on the methodology used to calculate base year emissions
(emissions factor method or alternative), the data available,  and
the form of the allowable emissions limits.  Five equations are
presented below for projecting point source emissions.  These  are
followed by examples illustrating the situations for which the
equations are appropriate.

     Some of the following equations use emissions factors for
coating sources that are expressed in terms of mass of VOC per
unit of production  (e.g., Ib VOC/gal of coating).  The regulatory
VOC RACT rules should already be expressed in terms of units such
as Ib VOC/gal of coating minus water and exempt solvents.  In
calculating base- or future-year emissions, however, one must
maintain consistency between the VOC content and the production
units.  If volume of coating, including water and exempt
solvents, is the only form of records kept for historical
production, then the VOC content must be adjusted from the
regulatory limit to be consistent with the units of production
used to calculate base- or future-year emissions.

Equation 1 - Projection calculated from base year operating rate,
uncontrolled or vrecontrol emissions factor, control efficiency,
RE, and growth factor

     This equation should be applied when the base year emissions
are calculated by the emissions factor method and control
efficiencies are used to reflect current or future control
strategies.  In these cases, the base year emissions are
calculated from the operating rate, base year emissions factor,
control efficiency  (current or future), and RE.

     The equation for projecting emissions in this case is:



         EMISPY = ORATEBYi0 * EMFPYipc * [l - (f^j (Ł*SJ] '* GF      (1 )


where:    SMISpy     =    Projection year emissions - ozone season
                         typical weekday (mass of pollutant/day)
          ORATEBY(0  =    Base year operating rate (activitv
                         level) - ozone season daily (production
                         units/day)
          EMFPY,PO    =    Projection year precontrol emissions
                         factor (mass of pollutant/production
                         unit)
          CEpY       =    Projection year control efficiency
                          (percent)

                                53

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          REPY'      =    Projection year RE  (percent)
          GF        =    Growth factor  (dimensionless)

     The precontrol emissions factor  (EMFPYtpc)  reflects the mass
of VOC per production unit emitted before control.   In this  case,
the control is reflected through the control efficiency rather
than through a reduced or post-control emissions factor.

     If the projection year  control efficiency and RE  values
reflect current regulatory or permit conditions, then  the
projection year emissions will be the Current Control  Projection.
If the control efficiency and RE values reflect future control
strategies, then the emissions projection will be the  Control
Strategy Projection.

Equation 2 - Projection calculated from base year operating rate,
allowable  (post-control) emissions factor, RE, and growth  factor

     This equation should be applied when the base year emissions
are calculated by the emissions factor method and the  emissions
factor accounts for the control level for the projection year.

     The equation for projecting emissions in this case is:
                                      (200 -
                                     J - 1QQ     * GF



 where:     EMISPY     =    Projection year emissions  -  ozone season
                          typical weekday (mass  of pollutant/day)
           ORATEg^o   =    Base year operating rate  (activity
                          level)  - ozone season  daily  (production
                          units/day)
           EMFpy      =    Projection year (post -control)  emissions
                          factor (mass of pollutant /product ion
                          unit)
           REpY       =    Projection year RE  (percent)
           GF        =    Growth factor  (dimensionless)

      Current Control Projection emissions in this case are
 calculated if the projection year emissions  factor  and RE values
 represent current regulatory or permit  conditions and/or actual
 conditions where appropriate  (see section 2.4 of  this document).
 Control Strategy Projection emissions  in this case  are calculated
 if the projection year emissions factor and  RE  values represent
 future control strategies or regulations developed  to meet rate-
 of -progress targets.

      Equation (2) will be used- for emissions factor-based control
 measures such as solvent content limits on surface  coating.
 These projections must also account for RE.   The  factor [(200 -
 REPY)/100] adjusts emissions  for RE.  With a RE of 80 percent,

                                 54

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emissions will be adjusted by a factor of  1.2.  The impact  of
applying RE in combination with a control  efficiency varies as
follows:
Uncontrolled
Emissions
(Ib/day)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Control
Efficiency
(%)
99
98
95
90
80
50
30
Controlled
Emissions
(100% RE)
1
2
5
10
20
50
70
Controlled
Emissions
(80% RE)
20.8
21 .6
24.0
28.0
36.0
60.0
76.0
RE
Factor
20.8
10.8
4.8
2.8
1 .8
1 .2
1 .1
The factor  [(200 - RE)/100] is equivalent to the impact  (on
emissions) of applying RE to a 50 percent control efficiency.
If, for instance, the allowable  (post-control) emissions factor
is converted to a percentage reduction from the precontrol
emissions factor and used as the projection year control
efficiency in equation (1), different results may be produced
depending on how much the resulting percentage reduction varies
from 50 percent.  The [(200 - REpy)/100]  factor  is  not  valid for
low RE values.

Equation 3 - Projection calculated from base year actual
emissions, future control levels, EE, and growth factor

     This equation will be used for processes where the base year
emissions are calculated by material balance, stack test, or any
method other than an emissions factor.  This equation can be
applied without using the process or operating rate for the
source.

     The equation for projecting emissions in this case is:
                      EMISBYi0 *
                                1 -
                                i -
           CEBY\I REBY

           100 A 100 ,
                      * GF
                                                    (3)
where:
EMIS.
          EMIS
              8Y,0
Projection year emissions - ozone season
typical weekday (mass of pollutant/day)
Base year ozone season actual emissions
(mass of 'pollutant/day)
                                55

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          CEPV


          REpy
          GF
              Projection year control efficiency
              (percent)
              Projection year RE (percent)
              Base year  control efficiency (percent)
              Base year  RE (percent)
              Growth factor (dimensionless)
     Current Control Projection emissions in this  case will be
calculated if the projection year control efficiency reflects
existing regulatory or permit conditions.  In  this case,  the
projection year and base year control efficiencies may be
equivalent if the base year control efficiency reflects allowable
conditions.  Since base year emissions reflect actual rather than
allowable conditions, the base year control efficiency may be
higher than the allowable efficiency or  the minimum control
mandated by existing regulations/permits.

     Control Strategy Projection emissions in  this case will be
calculated if the projection year control efficiency -reflects
future control measures.
Equation  4
emissions,
factor
- Projection calculated from base year actual
emissions factor-based control levels, RE, and growth
     This equation will be used for processes where the base year
emissions are calculated by material balance, stack test, or any
method other than emissions factors.  Equation  (4) must be used
for emissions factor-based control measures such as solvent
content limits on surface coating if the operating rate is
unavailable.  This equation differs from equation  (3) in  that
control levels are represented by emissions factors rather than
control efficiencies.

     The equation for projecting emissions in this case is:

                              (200 -. REpr)
                                            T ravfp*_..1
                                                   * GF
           EMISPY = EMISBYt0 *
                                  100
                              (200 - RESY)
                                  100
                                 I
                                              EMF*
                                                   (4)
 where:
          EMIS


          EMIS


          REpy

          REBy

          EMFrv
               PY
               BY,O
              Projection year emissions - ozone season
              typical weekday (mass of pollutant/day)
              Base year ozone season actual emissions
              (mass of pollutant/day)
              Base year RE  (percent)
              Projection year RE  (percent)
              Projection year emissions factor  (mass
              of pollutant/production unit)
                                56

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          EMFBY      =    Base year actual emissions factor  (mass
                         of pollutant /product ion unit)
          GF        =    Growth factor  (dimensionless)

     Emissions for the Current Control Projectipn in this case
are calculated when the projection year emissions factor and RE
values represent existing regulatory or permit conditions.   Under
the Current Control Projection, the projection year emissions
factor may be equivalent to the base year emissions factor  if the
actual conditions are equivalent to (i.e., not more stringent
than) the regulatory or permit conditions.

     Control Strategy Projection emissions in this case are
calculated by using the future control strategy emissions factor
and RE values in equation (4) .

     These projections must also account for RE.  The factor
[(200 - RE) 7100] adjusts emissions for RE.  With a RE of
80 percent, emissions will be adjusted by a factor of 1.2.
This is equivalent to the impact (on emissions) of applying an
80 percent RE to a 50 percent control efficiency.  If, for
instance, the allowable emissions factor is converted to a
percentage reduction from the precontrol emissions factor
and used as the projection year control efficiency in equation
(3) , different results may be produced depending on how much
the resulting percentage reduction varies from 50 percent.
The  [(200 - RE)/100] factor is not valid for low RE values.

Equation 5 - Projection calculated from permitted emissions rates

     Permits often express limitations in terms of mass emissions
rates (hourly, daily, monthly, or annual maximums) .  These
emissions rates will require different processing than the
emissions factor limits described for equations (1), (2),
and  (4).  Long-term (e.g., annual)  rates should be used as  an
estimate of the allowable emissions.  The long-term limit must be
converted to an ozone season typical weekday limit.

     The equation for projecting emissions in this case is:
                     EMISpy = ERPY *       ™>°                   (5)
                                   EMISBY,Annual


where:    EMISPY          =    Projection year emissions ozone
                              season typical weekday (mass of
                              pollutant /day)
          ERpY            =    Projection year annual emissions
                              cap  (mass of pollutant /year)
          EMISgYi0        =    Base year ozone season typical
                              weekday emissions (mass of
                              pollutant /day)

                                57

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          EMISBY/Annuai     =    Base year annual emissions  (mass  of
                              pollutant/year)

     The factor EMISBY/0/EMISBYfAnnual converts  the  long-term annual
emissions cap to an ozone season typical weekday emissions cap
using the ratio of base year ozone season typical weekday to
annual emissions.  Note that the mass units  (i.e.,  tons,  pounds)
must be equivalent in both terms.

     Emissions for the Current Control Projection are  calculated
in this case if the annual emissions cap  (ERpy)  reflects current
permit conditions.  Emissions for the Control Strategy Projection
are calculated if the annual emissions cap reflects the future
emissions cap for the source.  If future regulatory or permit
conditions are in the form of emissions factor limits  or  control
efficiencies, then the Control Strategy Projection  emissions
should be calculated using either equations  (1),  (2),  (3),  or
(4) .

Special Cases - Use of several equations

     Some situations will not fall under a single method
identified above, but will require the use of several  equations.
One situation requiring special processing is for facilities that
do not have process-specific limits but do have  facility-wide
limits.  An allocation should be developed to estimate process-
specific limits for the facility.  The equations above could then
be used to calculate projection year emissions.

Emissions Projections Examples for Point Sources

     The following examples illustrate the application of the
above equations for projecting emissions.

      1.   Surface Coating:  Solvent Content  Based Regulations

     Base Year Ozone Season Operating Conditions:
          Operating rate           =     10 gal coating/day
          Emissions factor         =     2.6  Ib VOC/gal coating
           (Base year emissions are calculated from  the solvent
          usage rate and  the emissions factor.   The emissions
          factor must be  in terms of VOC, excluding water and
          exempt  solvents)

      Projection. Year Conditions:
          Growth  factor                  =     1.2 (dimensionless)
          Current  regulatory
               emissions  limit           =     2.8 Ib VOC/gal
                                              coating
          Control  efficiency             =     not required for
                                              equation
          RE                             =     80  percent

                                58

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     Since the emissions limit is expressed in terms of  an
emissions factor, equation  (2) would be used to calculate
projection year emissions.  The variables in equation  (2)  are:

          ORATEBY>0  =    10 gal coating/day
          EMFpy  '   =    2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating
          GF        =    1.2  (dimensionless)
          REpY      =    80 percent

Projection year emissions are calculated as follows:
                                      (200 - REPY)
            EMISPY = ORATESYf0 * EMFPY * 	—
* GF
            (2)
                 EMISPY = 10 * 2.8 *iOQ    * 1.2

                         = 40.3 Ib VOC/day


     Since the emissions  factor represents current regulatory
conditions, this projection reflects the Current Control
Projection for this case.  Rule effectiveness must be accounted
for in the emissions projection since not all sources may be
complying and future emissions are not calculated by direct
determination .

     The State may decide to restrict this operation to the
2.6 Ib VOC/gal coating  emissions level (2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating is
the requirement) or lower through a new regulation or by permit
conditions.  The State  would use this new emissions factor limit
to calculate projection year emissions for the Control Strategy
Projection for this case  as follows:


     Control Strategy Emissions Factor = 2.6 Ib VOC/gal coating
                       = 10 * 2 . 6 *     " 8°  * i . 2
                                      100
                         = 37 . 4 Ib VOC/day
     If the throughput is in units incompatible with the
emissions factor  (VOC content) limit, then one of the parameters
must be converted for use in the equation.  For example,  flatwood
coaters may report operating rates in terms of 1 , 000 souare  feet
coated.  These ..units are compatible with the Federal  (AP-42)
emissions factors but are incompatible with solvent -based limits.
In most cases, the facility should have records on the gallons  of
                                59

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coating used for each process  (prime coating, etc.).  The average
gallons of coating per unit can be multiplied by the VOC limit  to
yield a limit in terms of Ib VOC/unit produced.  This could  then
be used in equation  (2).

     This example illustrates  the use of equation  (2) for
emissions projections.  Equation  (2) is used for emissions
factor-based controls such as  VOC limits.  Equation  (2) can  only
be used if the base  year operating rate is available.  This
example also illustrates the difference between the Current
Control Projection and the Control Strategy Projection.

     2.   Surface Coating:  No Throughput

     If the throughput is unavailable, or is in units
incompatible with the base year and allowable emissions factor,
equation  (4) must be used to calculate allowable emissions.
Material balances may be used  to calculate base year emissions
rather than emissions factor methods which use throughput and
emissions factors.

     Base Year Operating Conditions:
          Emissions            =    40 Ib VOC/day
          Emissions  factor     =    2.6 Ib VOC/gal  coating

     Projection Year Conditions:
          Growth factor        =      1.2  (dimensionless)
          Current regulatory/permit
          emissions  limit      =      2.8  Ib VOC/gal coating
      Variables in equation (4)  are
           EMISBY/0   =    40        GF
                     =    oU        KEgY
                     =    2.8       EMFBY
1.2
80
2.6
                  = EMI-SBYi0 *
r (200
- REpy.) ]
100 .
f (200
- **ar) 1
1 10° JJ
.[.
                                             EMF
* GF
           (4)
                                                BY
    SOS, - 40 .
      Since the current regulatory or permit conditions are used
 in the emissions projection calculation,  Current Control
 Projection emissions are calculated.
                                60

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     This example uses equation  (4) to project  emissions.
Equation  (4) is used for emissions factor-based control
strategies such as VOC limits.  Equation  (4)  must be used if
operating rates are unavailable  (if the operating rate is
available, equation  (2) should be used) .

     3.   Surface Coating: Control Device Versus VOC Content
          Limits

     Surface coating regulatory conditions may  be met by a
control device or by the use of low-solvent coatings.   The
emissions factor should be converted to a "Ib VOC/gal solids
applied" basis for calculating emissions.  Coatings that vary
widely in VOC content will also vary in solids  content.   More
lower-solids coating would be required to coat  the same surface
area.  This factor is accounted for by converting to the
Ib VOC/gal solids basis.  (In example 1, which  compared the
2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating to the 2.6 Ib VOC/gal  coating,  it was
assumed that the solids contents were equivalent.   The accuracy
of this assumption decreases as the difference  in VOC content
increases.)

     Base Year Operating Conditions:
          Operating Rate           =    60 gal  solids/day
          VOC content              =    3.5 Ib  VOC/gal coating
          Control efficiency       =    0 percent
          RE                       =    N/A
          Solids content           =    52.4  percent
          Solvent content          =    47.6  percent

     The base year emissions- factor is calculated as:

      3.5 Ib VOC/gal coating *   Jj?1 cofCin?.,  =6.68 Ib VOC/gal solids
                          0 .524 gal solids


     The base year emissions are calculated as:
         60 gal solids/day * 6.68 Ib VOC/gal solids = 400.8 Ib VOC/day


     In the first case, assume the coater meets  the regulatory
condition of 2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating by using  low-solvent coating.
The projection year emissions would be calculated using
equation  (2).

     Projection Year Conditions:
          Growth factor       =    1.2 (dimensionless)
          VOC content limit   =    2.8 Ib VOC/gal  coating
          VOC density         =    7.36 Ib VOC/gal VOC
                              =80 percent
                                61

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     The projection year emissions  factor  is calculated as:


    2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating * 713faj|.VSSc = 0.380 gal VOC/gal coating


               1 - 0.380 - 0.620 gal solids/ gal coating


   2.8 Ib VOC/gal coating * n \ fff1 c°atin?^ = 4.52 Jjb VOC/gal solids
                          0.620 gal solids             s

     Projection year emissions are  calculated using equation  (2)
            EMISpy = ORATESYi0 * EMFPY *               * GF
                EMISPY =60 * 4.52 *            * 1>2
                         = 390.5 Ib VOC/day

     In the second case,  assume the regulatory condition is in
the form of a control efficiency.

     Projection Year Conditions:
          Growth  factor       =    1.2 (dimensionless)
          Control efficiency  =    50 percent
          RE                   =80 percent

Equation  ( 1 ) is used to calculate proj ection year emissions as
follows :
* fl -
 [
              EMIS  = 60 * 6 .68 * l - --  --  * 1.2
                                      100  100
                         = 288.6 Ijbs VOC/day

     This  example illustrates the difference in the calculation
of projection year emissions for surface coating when  a control
efficiency rather than a lower VOC content coating is  specified
in the control measure.
                                 62

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          Control Efficiency-Based Regulations/Permits
     Some permits and regulations specify a control device and
efficiency with which the source must comply.  In these cases,
equation  (1) or equation  (3) would be used depending on the
availability of the base year operating rate.

     In some cases, the regulatory condition or permit may be
exceeded by the source.  Projection year emissions for the
Current Control Projection should be calculated using the
permitted rather than actual efficiency-
     Base Year Conditions:
          Emissions
          Control efficiency
          RE
          Operating rate

     Projection Year Conditions:
          Growth factor
          Permitted efficiency
          RE
  120 Ib VOC/day
  98 percent
  80 percent
  not available
  1.05 (dimensionless)
  95 percent
  80 percent
     Equation  (3) is used to calculate Current Control Projection
emissions as follows:
                      EMISBYi0 *
                                1 -
                                1 -
                                    100 A 100
       :)l
         * GF
                                                (3)
= 120 *
                      (1-(0.95) (0.80))
                      (1-(0.98) (0.30))
1 * 1.05 = 140 Ib/day
     In order to retain the base year efficiency of 98 percent, a
permit modification would have to be made or a new regulation
would have to be promulgated changing the legally enforceable
efficiency to 98 percent.  This would then be reflected in the
Control Strategy Projection.

     This example illustrates the use of equation (3) for control
device/efficiency-based control strategies.  Equation (1) or  (3)
should be used for control efficiency-based strategies.
Equation (3) is used if the operating rate is unavailable.
                                63

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          Synthetic Fiber Manufacturing -  Carbon Adsorber Control
     Equation  (1) calculates  proj ection year  emissions from the
base year operating rate  and  projection year  control information.
The base year operating rate "is  grown to the  projection year
using the growth factor.

     The base year operating  rate from the process is 30 tons of
product per day.  The  uncontrolled emissions  factor is 90 Ibs of
VOC per ton of product.   The  future control strategy is to
install a carbon adsorber with an estimated overall control
efficiency of  60 percent.  The variables in equation (1) are as
follows:
     ORATE
     EMF
     BY,O

^ PY>pc
CEPY
REpy
GF
30 tons product/day
90 Ib VOC/ton product
60 percent
80 percent
1.3 (dimensionless)
These  are  applied to equation ( 1 )  as follows :

                                                * GF
                                                               (1)
                  1,825 Ib VOC/day = 0.9 tons VOC/day
      Since this reflected a future control strategy, the
 emissions projection will be the Control Strategy Projection.
 The Current Control Projection would be calculated using the
 current control efficiency of zero, as follows:
                  ORATE3Yr0 * EMFPYrpc *
                                1 -
                                          CEOV\  RE,
                                                  PY
                                          100 } \ 100
                            * GF
                                                         (1
                = 3,510 Ib VOC/day =1.8 tons VOC/day
                                 64

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     This example illustrates the use of equation  ( 1 ) for
emissions projections.  Equation (1) is used for control
efficiency-based strategies when the operating rate is known.
This example also illustrates the difference between the Current
Control Projection and the Control Strategy 'Projection.

     6.   Mass Emissions Limit-Based Permits

     Many permits simply present mass emissions limits for the
process.  These may be hourly (Ib/hr) ,  daily (Ib/day) , monthly
(tons /month) , annual  (tpy) , or any combination of the above.
Permits with more than one limit may specify short- and long-
term limits that allow for seasonal or other fluctuations in
production.  Other permits specify the short-term limit as simply
the long-term limit divided by the days or hours operated.  This
type of specification does not allow for large fluctuations in
operation.

     The long-term annual limits will be used for emissions
projections since these are more representative of expected
rather than maximum activity.  These limits must be converted to
reflect ozone season typical weekday conditions.  Annual limits
are converted using the ratio of base year ozone season emissions
to base year annual emissions.

     Base Year Operating Conditions
          Ozone season emissions   =150 Ib/day = 0.075 tons/day
          Annual emissions         = 23 tpy

     Projection Year Conditions
          Current permit           = 30 tpy

     Equation (5) is used to calculate projection year emissions
as follows:
                     EMISPY - ERpr *        Y'°                   (5)
         EMISPY = 30 * [°-075] = 0.098 Cons /day = 196 Ib/day
                     [   23  J
     Since the limit used above reflects the current permit, the
emissions calculated are the Current Control Projection.  This
example demonstrates the use of equation (5) for mass emissions
limit-based permits.  If control efficiency or emissions factor
limits are available for the source, equations (1), (2), (3) ,  or
(4) should be use instead of equation (5).


                                65

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     Under future control  strategies,  the State may control the
source through specified emissions  factor limits,  control device
specifications, or  control efficiency limits.   In these cases,
the State should use  the appropriate equation [choosing from
equations (1) through (4)]  to calculate Control Strategy
Projection emissions.   These limits would take precedence over
mass emissions rate limits.   If the State chooses instead to
lower the permitted mass emissions  rate limits, equation (5)
would also be used  in the  Control Strategy Projection for this
source .

Area Source  Emissions Projections

     The current repository for base year area source emissions
inventories  is the  AMS of  AIRS.  The AMS has incorporated
emissions projections into the system design.   The AMS projects
emissions using the following data:

     •    Activity  Level (actual and limits) .
     •    Emissions Factor (actual  and limits) .
     •    Growth Factor.
     •    Control Information —   ^efficiency.
                                    
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               BASE ACTIVITY LEVEL * GROWTH FACTOR NEW CONTROLS
               BASE ACTIVITY LEVEL * GROWTH FACTOR

          Thus,  the State may enter a projection year limit.  The
          activity level for the "new controls" projection may
          differ from the "base" projection.  If activity limits
          are not entered, the system will use actual activity.

          PERIOD EMISSIONS FACTOR LIMIT NEW CONTROLS is the
          period emissions factor limit for the new controls
          projection.  The hierarchy for selecting the emissions
          factor is:

               PERIOD EMISSIONS FACTOR LIMIT NEW CONTROLS
               ANNUAL EMISSIONS FACTOR LIMIT NEW CONTROLS
               PERIOD EMISSIONS FACTOR LIMIT
               ANNUAL EMISSIONS FACTOR LIMIT
               PERIOD EMISSIONS FACTOR
               ANNUAL EMISSIONS FACTOR

          Thus,  the State may enter a projection year emissions
          factor limit (allowable emissions factor).   The factor
          may be ozone season specific,  or, if not entered, the
          annual factor will be applied.  The "limit new
          controls" reflects the control strategy projection
          whereas the "limit" reflects the baseline projection.

          CEFF is the projected control efficiency.

          REFF is the projected RE.

          RPEN is the projected rule penetration.

     The AMS equation also includes ash or sulfur content,  the
fuel loading factor,  the percent reactivity, and unit conversion
factors as applicable.

     The AMS includes equations for calculating both the Current
Control Projection and the Control Strategy Projection.   The
Control Strategy Projection is reflected in equation (6).   The
Current Control Projection is similar with the Period Emissions
Factor Limit substituted for the Period Emissions Factor Limit
New Controls.
                               67

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     The AMS equation can be  rewritten using the terminology
presented in' equations  (1)  through  (5)  as follows:

                                      f    ( CEPY}( REPY    PY     i -7 \
        EMISpr - ORATED . OT . M  . l - __»_JS     ( 7 )
where:    EMISPY     =     Projection year emissions [ozone season
                          typical weekday allowable emissions
                          (mass  of pollutant /day) ]
          ORATEBYj0   =     Base year activity level (operating
                          rate)  - ozone season daily (production
                          units/day)
          GF        =     Growth factor
                     =     Projection year emissions factor (mass
                          of pollutant/production unit)
                     =     Projection year control efficiency
                          (percent)
                     =     Projection year RE (percent)
          RPpY       =     Projection year rule penetration
                          (percent)

      Note that while equation (6) does not include a growth
factor,  the projection year activity level is used directly in
equation (6) and may be entered by the user.  (In other words,
growth is still considered.) Alternatively, the projection year
activity level can be  calculated in AMS from the base year
activity and a growth  factor.

      The major difference between the AMS equation and the point
source equations is the inclusion of the rule penetration factor.
The rule penetration accounts for the percentage of emissions
within the area source category that are covered by the
regulation.  For example, a regulation may only affect sources
above 10 tpy,  The rule penetration would be equivalent to the
percentage of emissions from sources above 10 tpy within the are;
source categcrv.

      The AMS equation also differs in that activity level limits
may be entered in addition to actual or expected activity levels.
States should not enter activity level limits because emissions


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          AIRS User/s Guide:  AMS Data Storage.  (See
          reference 34.)

Mobile Source Emissions Projections

     This section is divided into separate discussions on  highway
vehicles and other mobile sources.

Highway Vehicle Emissions Projections

     Highway vehicle emissions are projected by combining  base
year VMT, VMT growth factors, and MOBILES.0 emissions factors.
The equation for calculating projection year emissions is:


                  EMISpy. = VMTBYf 0*GF*EMFPYio* CONV               (8)

where:    EMISPY     =    Projection year emissions  [ozone  season
                         typical weekday allowable emissions
                         (mass of pollutant/day)]
          VMTBY.O    =    Base year ozone season daily VMT
          GF   '     =    Growth factor
          EMFPYf0    =    MOBILES.0 emissions factor, projection
                         year (1996)  ozone season
          CONV      =    Units conversion factor

     The effects of highway vehicle controls (i.e., new vehicle
standards, enhanced I/M, reformulated gasoline) will be -reflected
in the MOBILES.0 emissions factors.  The effects of programs
designed to reduce VMT  (e.g., TCM's such as employee trip
reductions) should be reflected in the growth factor for VMT.   It
should be noted that these measures may also affect vehicle
speeds which, in turn, will affect the motor vehicle emissions
factors.

     Highway vehicle projections should be completed at a
desegregated level represented by vehicle type and roadway class.
This is described in more detail in the motor vehicle inventory
guidance.  (See reference 35.)  The VMT growth factors should be
developed based on the VMT forecasting guidance developed by
EPA's Office of Mobile Sources (57 FR 9549,  March 19, 1992).

     Highway vehicle emissions projections can be completed
within AMS.  Period (ozone season) projected emissions for 1996
are equivalent to the projection year emissions.  The State
should obtain additional information on the data requirements and
format for AMS projection inventories and the interaction of
MOBILES.0 and AMS.  This information is available in the AMS
manuals referenced in the previous section.
                                69

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Other Mobile Sources

     Emissions must also be projected  for aircraft,  locomotives,
and other nonroad mobile equipment  and vehicles.  No new Federal
controls are expected  to be in place by 1996  for these  sources.
The 1990 emissions should be projected to future years  based on
the expected growth in activity  levels.  These projections  can be
completed within AMS following the  methods described above  for
area sources.  The EPA's Office  of  Mobile Sources plans to
provide guidance on how to project  growth from nonroad  mobile
•equipment and vehicles.

Emissions Preprocessor System  (EPS)

     The EPS may be used by the  States to calculate  projection
year emissions.  The EPS accepts work  files from AFS and AMS that
contain information on base year emissions, including control
equipment,  control efficiency, RE,  and rule penetration. Ozone
season daily emissions should  be used  in EPS  to meet the
requirements of the rate-of-progress plan.

     The Control Emissions  (CNTLEM) module allows the user  to
simulate the effects of various  control strategies on the
emissions.  The user supplies  projection factors reflecting
changes in  activity levels  (operating  rates)  by 2-digit SIC or
the first 4 digits of  the ASC.  The"user also supplies  control
factors for CTG's, MACT, non-CTG RACT, highway vehicle  controls,
and other•source- or source category-specific controls.  The user
may also specify allowable  emissions limits;  however, these
limits must be expressed as emissions  rate limits  (tons per day) .

     For the Current Controls  Projection, the user should supply
control information  for measures currently in the SIP including
CTG's, non-CTG RACT, and existing I/M  programs.  Motor  vehicle
control factors  (which represent ratios of future year  to base
year MOBILE4.1 emissions factors) are  created with a separate EPS
utility  (MVADJ) .  Enhancements to EPS, scheduled for the end of
January  1993, will  include, updating the EPS motor vehicle utility
 to MOBILE5.0.

     For  the  Control  Strategy Projection, the user should add
CAAA-mandated control  measures and other control measures which
 the State wishes  to  test.   In general, States will begin with, the
 CAAA-mandated measures and assess progress- towards the  15 percent
VOC emissions  reduction requirement.   If shortfalls  in  necessary
 reductions  exist,  additional  control measures must be considered.

     The  EPS  applies  all  controls as  replacement technologies.
 Base year  uncontrolled emissions are  calculated  from base year
 actual emissions  and the  control parameters-  Emissions are then
 projected by applying the  projection  factor  (or  growth  factor)
 and the  projection year control parameters.   The end result is

                                 70

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that emissions are projected using an equation similar to
equation (3) , as shown below.
           EMISpY = EMISBy *
                            1 -
                            1 -
                                        * GF
                                     (9)
where:
EMI S
              py
          EMIS
              BY
          CEBy

          REBY

          RPBY
          GF
Projection year emissions (mass of
pollutant/time)
Base year emissions (mass of
pollutant/time)
Projection year control efficiency
(percent)
Projection year RE (percent)
Projection year rule penetration
(percent)
Base year control efficiency (percent)
Base year RE (percent)
Base year rule penetration  (percent)
Growth factor  (dimensionless)
     Since the controls are treated as replacement technologies,
the projection year control efficiency used may actually be lower
than the base year control efficiency.  In defining source
category-specific controls, the user should be aware of any
individual sources within the category that are currently
required to achieve a greater reduction.  These should be input
as source specific controls.  The user should also ensure that
multiple control strategies (with the exception of CTG, non-CTG
RACT, and MACT strategies) are not applied to the same source.
This will lead to double-counting of controls.  For example, if
the user specifies a RACT reduction of 50 percent and a
discretionary control of 90 percent, CNTLEM will first apply the
50 percent control and apply an additional 90 percent reduction
to the remaining emissions.

     Allowable emissions for projection purposes are to be based
on emissions factor or control efficiency limits in combination
with expected activity.  Allowable emissions limits must be input
to EPS in terms of mass per unit time (tons per day) .  The user
must convert emissions factor limits to emissions rate limits.
Since control efficiency is a valid input, permitted control
efficiencies may be input for use in the emissions projections.
For sources using emissions factor limits, the emissions limit
may be calculated using the detailed equations presented earlier.
The projection year emissions can then be input as the allowable
emissions limit in EPS.  These limits should be specified as
                                71

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replacement so that CNTLEM replaces the emissions projection for
the source with the user-specified limit.

     Refer to the following user's guide for more detailed
instructions on EPS:

     •    User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model - Volume IV:
          User's Manual for the Emissions Preprocessor
          System 2.0, Part A:  Core FORTRAN System, and Part B:
          Interface and Emissions Display System.  [EPA-450/4-90-
          007D(R)], U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office
          of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
          Triangle Park, NC.  June 1992.

6.5  Effects of Equipment Replacement and New Source Requirements

     Failure to consider the  effects of equipment replacement  and
NSPS requirements for an affected facility's existing capital
stock, may result in development of a SIP which requires more
emissions reductions than necessary to meet rate-of-progress
milestones or NAAQS attainment dates.

     As an existing facility  wears out and is replaced with newer
equipment, it may become subject to a NSPS.  To the extent NSPS
requirements are more restrictive than present requirements on
the existing  (not modified or reconstructed) facility, future
emissions will be reduced.  The implications of such emissions
reductions can be assessed using the following formula:


                  Ext =  [ (Eb - En} * (1 + r) exp t]

where:    Ert  =    Emissions reductions in year t
          Eb   =    Emissions in the base year
          En   =    NSPS emissions
          r    =    Annual replacement rate for worn out capital
                    stock
          t    =    Years from  the base year

      Consequently,  zero net growth emissions need not be the same
as baseline;  they might actually be less.

      Failure  to consider the  effect of offset requirements .-nay
also  result  in emissions reduction requirements greater than
necessary to  meet rate-of-progress or NAAQS attainment dates.

     •As  additions to  the existing capital stock become subject to
offset  requirements greater  than ,1:1, base emissions levels
 should  decrease.  Such  emissions reduction consequences of offset
 requirements  can be assessed  using the following formula:
                                72

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                Ext =  [ (1 - Or)  * Eb] * (l + gr) exp t


where:    Ert  =    Emissions reductions in year t
          Or   =    Offset ratio
          Eb   =    Emissions in the base year
          g    =    Annual growth rate
          t    =    Years from the base year

     A State may use the foregoing procedures in combination with
the previously presented equations to account for emissions
reductions that occur due to new major point source growth.  The
annual replacement rate for worn out capital stock may be
calculated using replacement rates for various industrial
categories provided by the Internal Revenue Service in the most
recent version of their Publication 534, Depreciation,  used for
preparation of income tax returns. (See reference 36.)   The State
will have to determine the fraction of growth in a source
category that is due to major sources, which would have to meet
at least the NSPS limit and which would have to obtain emissions
offsets.  That fraction should be based on representative recent
historical information (ratios of major source growth to total
growth) for the source category.

6.6  Submitting Projection Year Inventories and Supporting Data

     Submission of the projection year inventory to EPA must
include:

     •    Hardcopy summary of emissions estimates.

     •    Documentation of methodology/procedures.

     •    Emissions projections in computerized format.

     The level of documentation necessary will depend to some
extent on the procedures used in the emissions projections.  For
example, if .growth factors from BEA or E-GAS are used in the
projections, required documentation would be limited to simply
stating this, since these are EPA-recommended sources for growth
factors.  If nonrecommended sources of data, procedures,  or
methodologies are used, documentation must be sufficient for Z?A
to duplicate calculations and make a judgment as to the
acceptability of the submission.

     Emissions projections should be summarized in hardcopy form
and also submitted in computerized format.  The computerized
format will depend on whether projections are completed using the
detailed equations, EPS,  or the jiew software being developed by
SPA.  Emissions projections will most likely be required to be
submitted through AIRS.  More information on the computerized

                                73

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format for emissions projections will be available within the
next few months.

     Since the data necessary to complete the inventories may
include confidential business information (operating rates) or
data that can lead to the calculation of t*his information
(emissions combined with emissions factors), EPA will allow
States to submit ratios of emissions factors (projection year to
base year) or operating rates, rather than the individual
factors/rates.  States must have the individual data elements
available for EPA to spot-check.  In addition, States must save
the background historical information in order to reproduce the
base year and projection year emissions inventories.
                                74

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7.0  CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR NO.
                              X
     Nitrogen oxide emissions reductions occurring in the period
1990-1996 may not be substituted for VOC emissions reductions for
the rate-of-progress requirements.  Nitrogen oxide emissions
reductions occurring in the period 1990-1996, in excess of growth
since 1990, may be considered as substitutes for VOC emissions
reductions for the post-1996 rate-of-progress requirements.
States may choose to pursue NOX control strategies to achieve
some portion of future VOC emissions reductions through this
substitution.  The EPA expects to issue guidance for substitution
of NOX for VOC emissions reductions in the fall of 1993 for the
post-1996 period.

7-1  Stationary Source Controls

     For extreme ozone nonattainment areas, section 183(e)(3) of
the Act requires certain boilers to implement clean fuels or
advanced control technology by November 15, 1998 (this
information should be included in a.SIP revision due by November
15, 1993).  Affected boilers are individual new, modified, or
existing electric utility, industrial, or
commercial/institutional boilers that emit more than 25 tpy of
NOX.   The Act specifies,  for purposes of this section,  that clean
fuels are "natural gas, methanol, or ethanol (or a comparably low
polluting fuel)," advanced control technology generally means
"catalytic control technology or other comparably effective
control methods," and the clean fuel must be "used 90 percent or
more of the. operating time."  [See General Preamble,  section
III.A.6.d (57 FR 13523).]

     For further information on applicable NOX controls for
stationary sources, States should refer to NOX RACT rules,  as
well as NOX ACT documents (see Appendix J for list  of ACT's) .  In
the event that the ACT's are not released soon enough, some
control strategies might be found by consulting the BACT/LAER
Clearinghouse and/or NS?S (see Appendix J).

     Under Title IV of the Act, the acid deposition program
requires NOX emissions  reductions from tangentially fired boilers
and dry bottom wall-fired boilers (see Proposed Rule  57 FR 55622'




tangentlally f^red cellars 'see 57 ??. 55632 for di.scus3i.cr. cf
these technologies and techniques) .  The acid deccs^-^cn prcccsed
rule also allows for alternative technologies under certain
conditions such as returning,  selective cataly-lc reduction, and
selective nencatalvt^c reductlcn \ncne of these alternative
technologies -should be deemed oeVered by RACT, however).

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     The air quality programs in California, specifically  for  the
South Coast, Ventura, San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Kern County
may also incorporate additional NOX stationary source controls.
These programs also required nonstationary source controls such
as controls on lawn equipment and pleasure boats, and the
requirement that all new homes be built with solar water heaters
[the specific air quality offices should be contacted for
information].

7.2  Area Source Controls

     States may also elect  to have control measures for area
sources even though the CAAA do not specifically require them.
For instance, California .has adopted  rules covering home heaters.
Appendix J contains two rules that are part of  the California
SIP—both are SCAQMD rules.  The growth in NOX emissions due to
new housing developments that would use natural gas fired  heaters
could be particularly offset by such  a requirement.

     Below is a list of present and future NOX home heating
rules,  that either are not  currently  part of the SIP or are
scheduled for adoption in early 1993  or 1994.   Contact the
appropriate Air Pollution Control District  (APCD) or Air Quality
Management District  (AQMD)  for more information.

Ventura APCD        Gas-Fired Water Heaters       Rule 74.11

El Dorado APCD      Residential Wood  Combustion  1/93
                    Residential Space Heating     2/93
                    Residential Water Heating     3/94

Kern County APCD    Residential/Commercial Water  1/93
                    Heaters

Bay Area AQMD       Residential Water Heaters     1993
                    Residential Wood  Combustion  1993
 7.3   Mobile Source Controls

      States may take credit for certain NOX emissions reductions
 achieved through implementation of TCM's and  enhanced  I/M
 programs.   Emissions reducri.on.s may also occur chrough  oonrrol of
 r.cnroad engines,  bui: these reductions .-nay not be realized ur.ci.1
 after 2000 due to the phase-in schedule (note that  the  CAAA
 applies to new engines only; the State would  have ~o adopt a
 separate rule for rebuilt engines) .
                                76

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8.0  ATTAINMENT  DEMONSTRATION

     This section  explains  the  attainment demonstration
requirements  for the  SIP  for  moderate and above ozone
nonattainment areas,  presents the modeling tools that can be  used
for attainment demonstrations/  and discusses several unique air
quality situations that can affect the SIP attainment
demonstration.   It should be  noted that both biogenic and
anthropogenic emissions are included in the modeling domain and
both must also be  included  in the development of the attainment
demonstration.

8.1  Requirements  for Moderate  and Above Nonattainment Areas

     Section  181(a)(1) establishes a schedule for attainment  of
the NAAQS for ozone for the nonattainment areas classified as
marginal and  above, based on  the design value for the area.
Section 182(b)(1)(A)  requires a SIP for moderate and above
nonattainment areas to provide  for VOC and NOX emissions
reductions necessary  to attain  the standard.  This "showing"  of
attainment by a  SIP is the  attainment demonstration.  For
moderate areas  (other than  multi-State nonattainment areas) this
requirement can  be met through  the application of an EPA-approved
model and EPA-approved modeling techniques described in the
•current version  of the Guideline on Air Quality Models. (See
reference 37.)

     Two models  are suggested:  UAM or EKMA.  The General
Preamble should  be consulted  regarding the attainment
demonstration implications  of using each model (57 FR 13510).  If
EKMA is used, the  attainment  demonstration is due by November 15,
1993.  States choosing to run UAM for their intrastate moderate
areas must submit  their 15  percent rate-of-progress plan and  a
committal SIP addressing  the  attainment demonstration.  The
committal SIP subject to  a  section 110(k)(4) approval would
include, at a minimum, evidence that grid modeling is well under
way and a commitment, with  schedule, to complete the modeling and
submit it as  a SIP revision by  November 15, 1994.  The completed
attainment demonstration  would  include any additional controls
needed for attainment.  For further discussion of committal
SIP's, see July  9,  1992 memorandum from John Calcagni, Director,
Air Quality Management Division, OAQPS, to Regional
           concerning "Processing of. State Ir.pl em en
 (S_P) Submittais."

     States should plan to achieve emissions reductions as early
in the process as possible, since section 181 (b%? (2X requires IPA
to make a determination as to whether an area has attained the
ozone NAAQS within 5 months following an applicable atta^r.-ent
-ate.  This requirement dictates^the use of the most recent
3 years of air quality data, which means EPA will use 1SS4-1996

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data in determining whether a moderate area has attained  the
ozone NAAQS.   [See the General Preamble  (57 FR 13509).]

8.2  Requirements for Serious and Above Nonattainment  Areas

     Serious and above nonattainment areas must,  through  their
SIP's, provide an attainment demonstration by November 15,  1994.
The attainment demonstration for these areas must be based on
photochemical grid modeling, such as UAM.

8.3  Modeling Considerations

Empirical Kinetic Modeling Analysis  (EKMA)

     The use of EKMA is  described in Guideline for  Use of City-
Specific EKMA  in Preparing Ozone SIP/s  (see reference  38),  as
well as the Guideline on Air Quality Models  (see  reference  39),
and should  be  consulted,  along with the  appropriate EPA Regional
Office, before an analysis is conducted  with this modeling
approach.

Urban Airshed Model  (UAM)

     The use of UAM, a photochemical grid model,  is recommended
or required for modeling applications involving -all areas
classified  serious and above, and for all interstate moderate
areas.

     The UAM is described in Guideline for Regulatory  Application
of the Urban Airshed Model  (see reference 40), and  the User's
Guide for the  Urban Airshed Model  (see reference  41).   These
documents and  the appropriate EPA Regional Office should  be
consulted before an analysis is conducted with this modeling
approach.

8.4   Special Air Quality Situations

Areas Requiring Emissions Reductions in  Excess of 15 Percent

      There  will be circumstances under which a moderate area  will
be able to  show attainment of the NAAQS  can be achieved only
through VOC emissions  reductions in  excess of the 15 percent  vcc
emissions  reduction mandated  in  section  182(b)(1)(A)(i).  Th:_s
condition  may  exist for  an area  that has a design value at  the
 top  of  the  range  (0.138  to 0.159 ppm) of the moderate
nonattainment  classification, where  there is a heavy
concentration  of VOC  sources  in  a  smaller area of the
nonattainment  area, or  when atmospheric  conditions  favor  the
 formation  of ozone.   The underlying  requirement of  the SIP  for
 these areas is the  attainment of  the standard by  the attainment
 date,  not  solely  the  achievement of  the  15 percent  VOC emissions
 reduction.

                                78

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Areas Requiring Emissions Reductions Less Than 1 5 Percent

     Section 182(b)(1)(A)(ii) allows moderate, serious, and
severe ozone nonattainment areas to reduce VOC emissions by less
than 15 percent if  the following conditions are met.  First,  the
State must demonstrate that the area has a new source review
(NSR) program equivalent to the requirements in extreme areas
[section 182(e)], except that a "major source" must include any
source that emits,  or has the potential to emit, 5 tpy.  All
major sources (down to those with emissions of 5 tpy or greater)
in the area must be required to have RACT-level controls.  The
plan must also include all measures that can be feasibly
implemented in the  area, in light, of technological achievability-
To qualify for the  lesser percentage, the State must demonstrate
that the SIP includes all measures (both stationary and mobile)
that are achieved in practice by sources in the same source
category in nonattainment areas of the next higher
classification.

Rural Nonattainment Areas

     Section 182(h) addresses the situation of a rural area
downwind of a larger urban area and classified as a nonattainment
area due to the transport of ozone and ozone precursors from the
larger upwind urban area.  A rural area is treated as a transport
area if the EPA Administrator finds that sources of VOC and NOX
emissions within the area do not make a significant contribution
to the ozone concentrations measured in the area or in other
areas.  The only requirements for these areas are the
requirements specified in section 182(a)  for marginal areas, the
assumption being that the controls in the upwind area will solve
the problem in the  rural transport area as well.

     Section 185(e) provides a further exemption for small areas
unable to attain the ozone standard due to transport of ozone and
its precursors from other areas.  A small area, defined as an
area with a total population under 200,000, is exempt from all
sanctions if the area can demonstrate that attainment is
prevented because of ozone or ozone precursors transported from
other areas.  The exemption applies only if the area has met all
other applicable requirements of the CAAA.
     Section 182(j) defines and establishes recuirender,-3 for
ozcne nonattainment areas covering areas in more tr.an cr.e State
called multi-State nonattainment areas.  Beyond the requirement:3
in section 182 for the classification of the ncnat~a^r.nier-z areas
(marginal, moderate, serious, severe, extreme, transport1 .
section "32(jj  (') requires Stares in these areas tc coordinate
the revisions" and implementation of the SIP's applicable tc the
nonattainment areas and tc use photochemical grid mccelir.cr  -icr

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another method determined by EPA) as part of the SIP-preparation
process.

     Each State in a multi-State nonattainment area should
develop and submit to EPA a joint work plan to demonstrate early
cooperation and integration.  The work plan should include a
schedule for developing the control strategies and the attainment
demonstration for'the entire multi-State area.  The work plans
should also reference the applicable modeling protocol.  The work
plan should be submitted by the State Air Directors to the
Regional Air Division Directors no later than May 31, 1993.  Each
State should write their own letter for their appropriate
Regional Office and send a copy to the other States in the
nonattainment area for review  (see Appendix I for an example
model letter).  Please note that States should check with their
Regional Offices on appropriate schedule dates.  For example,
some States may negotiate dates through the 105 grants process.

     Section  1.82 (j) (2) recognizes that an area in one State
within  the multi-State nonattainment area may not be able to
demonstrate attainment "but for the failure of one or more other
States, in which other portions of the area are located, to
commit  to the implementation of all measures required by section
182	"  If  the EPA Administrator makes a finding that this
situation is occurring, the sanctions of section 179 shall not
apply to the petitioning State.  Section II.A.9 of the General
Preamble provides the primary  guidance for these nonattainment
area SIP's.  Appendix I of this document contains a model letter
written by EPA as guidance to  multi-State planners.

International Border Areas

     Section  179B of the Act applies to nonattainment areas that
are affected  by  emissions emanating from outside the United
States.  This section provides relief for nonattainment areas
along international borders analogous to what is provided to
States  within multi-State nonattainment areas by section 182(j):
EPA shall approve the SIP if it meets all the requirements in the
CAAA and if  the  State establishes that the implementation of the
plan would be adequate to attain and maintain the relevant NAAQS
 "but for emissions  emanating from outside the United States."
 Section 179B  (created by Title VIII, section 818 of the CAAA) and
 section Y.C  of  the  General Preamble provide SI? guidance for
 areas on  international borders.
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9.0  CONTINGENCY MEASURES

     The Act require that States with areas of moderate or higher
levels of nonattainment include contingency' measures in their
SIP's  [sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9)].  The contingency
measures in these plans describe the additional controls to be
implemented in the event of an attainment or milestone failure.
Section 172(c) (9) of the Act pertains to nonattainment area
failures to demonstrate either attainment or RFP.  Section
182(c)(9) requires SIP contingency measures for serious and above
area milestone failures.

     The SIP's for moderate and above nonattainment areas must
include provisions for the implementation of contingency measures
without further State or EPA action.  Sections 172(c) (9) and
182(c) (9) specify that the contingency measures shall "take
effect without further action by the State or the Administrator."
The EPA interprets this requirement to mean that no further
rulemaking activities by the State or the EPA should be needed to
implement the contingency measures.  The EPA recognizes that
certain actions, such as notification of sources or modification
of permits, would probably be needed before a measure could be
implemented effectively.  States must show that their contingency
measures can be implemented with minimal further action on their
part and with no additional rulemaking activities such as public
hearings or legislative review.  In general,  EPA will expect all
actions needed to affect full implementation of the measures to
occur within 60 days after EPA notifies the State of its
attainment or milestone failure.

9.1  Marginal Areas

     Section 182(a) specifically exempts marginal nonattainment
areas from the contingency measures requirement stated in section
172(c)(9).

     Although marginal areas are excluded from the requirement
for contingency measures in their SIP's, marginal areas should
carefully consider contingency measures in case an area does not
attain by the 1993 date.  This issue arises because of the short
planning and implementation time frame (3 years) available
between the attainment dates for marginal and moderate areas.
If a marginal area fails to attain by its November 15,  1993 date,
it will become subject to all of the requirements for moderate
areas, specifically the I/M program, RACT, and the 15 percent VOC
emissions reduction requirements.  The additional moderate
nonattainment area requirements would have to be met after
reclassification and the standard would have to be attained by
November 15, 1996, an extremely tight- time frame for these
provisions if, no prior planning and adoption actions had
occurred.  If the area then misses the November 15, 1996
attainment date, the area would again be reclassified and,

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therefore, subject to the more stringent requirements of serious
areas.  This is also an important issue for marginal areas.
Appendix H describes in more detail the process following  the
finding of a milestone or attainment failure for marginal  and
moderate areas.

9.2  Moderate and Above Areas

     Ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate or above
must include in their SIP submittals, due by November 15,  1993,
contingency measures to be  implemented in the event of an
attainment or milestone failure.  This contingency submittal date
is appropriate because States must submit demonstrations on that
date that show the 15 percent VOG emissions milestone will be
achieved in 1996.  Under sections 182(g)(1) and 182(g)(2),
demonstrations of milestone compliance are not required when a
nonattainment area's milestone and attainment dates are identical
and the area is determined  to have attained  (e.g., a serious area
that is found to have attained the standard by November 15, 1999,
is not obligated to demonstrate  that the 1996-1999 milestone was
achieved because November 15, 1999, is also the milestone  date
for serious areas).  It should be remembered that in developing a
maintenance plan for an area that is redesignated attainment, the
State must show that its SIP was fully implemented.

     The  CAAA do not specify how many contingency measures are
needed or the magnitude of  emissions reductions that must  be
provided by these measures. Assuming that all of the State
measures  may fail to produce their expected reductions, one
interpretation of the CAAA  is that a State would have to adopt
sufficient contingency measures  in the November 15, 1993,  SIP
submittal to make up for this entire shortfall.  The EPA believes
that  this would be an unreasonable requirement given the
difficulty many States already have in identifying and adopting
sufficient measures to meet the  rate-of-progress and other CAAA
requirements.

      Contingency measures should, at a minimum, ensure that an
appropriate level of emissions reduction progress continues to be
made  while the State plans  additional control measures.
Therefore, as  stated in  section  III.A.3.c of the General Preamble
 (57 FR  13498), EPA  interprets the CAAA*to require States with
moderate  and above ozone nonattainment areas to include
 sufficient contingency measures  in  the November 15, 1993
 submittal so that, upon  implementation of such measures,
 additional emissions reductions  of up to  3 percent of the
 emissions in the adjusted base year  inventory would be achieved
 in the  year  following  that  in which  the attainment failure has
 been  identified.   These  emissions reductions are in addition, to
 those that are  already  scheduled to occur in accordance with  the
 general control  strategy for the area.  This provision ensures
 that  (1)  progress  toward attainment occurs at a rate similar  to

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that specified under the rate-of-progress requirements, and  (2)
the State will achieve these reductions while developing and
implementing additional control measures to correct for the
shortfall in emissions reductions or adopting newly required
measures resulting from the bump-up to a higher classification.
States must identify the order in which the contingency measures
will be implemented and the percentage reductions that are
projected for each contingency measure.

     It is important to note that the EPA only requires that
contingency measures be implemented to compensate for the degree
of failure.  In other words, a shortfall of 2 percent requires
implementation of sufficient measures to make up for the
2 percent, not the 3 percent  (or possibly more, as discussed
below) .  If EPA determines that a shortfall of less than
3 percent exists in a nonattainment area, EPA will select
individual control measures from the initial 3 percent
contingency plan as prioritized by the State until the shortfall
is covered.  For example, four measures equaling a 3 percent VOC
reduction from the adjusted base year inventory are included in
an area's contingency plan.  Contingency measures are listed
within the plan in the order that they would be implemented.  The
first two measures are projected to result in a 1 percent VOC
reduction each, while the last two are projected to produce a
0.5 percent reduction each.  If a 1 percent shortfall is
identified, the first contingency measure would be implemented;
if a 2.5 percent shortfall is identified, then the first three
contingency measures would be implemented.

     Under this approach, the State would have 1 year to modify
its SIP and take other corrective action needed to ensure that
milestones are achieved and that rate-of-progress towards
attainment continues.  The EPA believes that 1 year to revise the
SIP is appropriate in most cases as this is consistent with the
time frame of other rate-of-progress requirements.  If a State
needs significantly longer than 1 year to revise its SIP (perhaps
due to the length of the State's legislative process) , then the
State is expected to provide for additional contingency measures'
commensurate with the length of time necessary for the SIP
revision.  For example, if the State anticipates that it will
require 2 years to revise its SIP, then the plan should include
contingency measures that will produce 6 percent emissions
reductions (3 percent per year).0  In the case of moderate  areas,
contingency measures would be needed when an area incurs an
attainment failure (or, for serious and above areas, if the area
incurs either an attainment or a milestone failure).  If, for
Similarly,  if the State's SIP revision process is shorter than
1 year, contingency measures providing proportionally less than
3 percent will be acceptable  (e.g., 1.5 percent reduction for a
6-raonth revision time frame).

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example, a moderate area fails to attain, it will be bumped-up to
a higher classification and become subject to the requirements
that apply to this new classification.  The contingency measures
would be implemented while the State would develop and adopt the
new measures associated with its new classification.

     One way that States can meet the contingency measures
requirement is by providing for early implementation of measures
before  the dates scheduled in the overall SIP control strategy.
That is, a State may include as a contingency measure the
requirement that control measures that would be implemented in
later years, would instead be implemented earlier if the area
either  does not meet its milestone or attain the NAAQS by the
applicable date.  For example, a severe area has control measure
A scheduled for implementation in June 1.998.  Control measure A
is also included in its contingency plan.  The area fails to meet
the 1996 milestone and elects to implement its contingency plan.
Control measure A is then implemented in October 1997.  Areas
that implement control measures from their overall SIP control
strategy as a contingency measure must develop new measures to
backfill both the control strategy and the contingency plan.
Within  1 year of the triggering of a contingency requiring the
early implementation of control measures, the State must submit a
SIP revision containing whatever additional provisions are needed
to backfill the SIP to remedy any eventual' shortfall that may
occur as the result of the early use of the control measures.
The EPA expects any control measures that are implemented early
as part of a contingency plan will remain in place  (or be
superseded by replacement control measures) until the next
milestone.  At the next milestone, the State can demonstrate
whether or not these control measures are needed to stay on
track.

     The EPA believes  that a 3 percent contingency will be
adequate for most areas but, in some cases 3 percent may be
inadequate, especially if corrective action is not instituted in
a  timely manner prior  to a milestone date.  To address the
possibility of a greater than  3 percent shortfall, EPA requires
moderate and above areas to submit contingency measures providing
for a  3 percent reduction as well as an enforceable commitment to
submit  an annual tracking program describing the degree to which
it has  achieved its projected  annual emissions reduction.
Compliance  for this requirement will be  to participate in EPA's
tracking efforts and  respond accordingly.  Because EPA believes I .
 it is  necessary to  assess the  progress of States during the     '
 interim periods between plan submittals and milestone compliance
determinations, it  is  developing a computer system to track the
 States' rate-of-progress plans. " It is anticipated that this
 system will be utilized by EPA to develop tracking reports  chat
 estimate  the percentage reduction, in VOC. emissions.  States would
 review these  reports  and revise them if  they do not agree with
 EPA's  tracking assessment.  Two options  are available to States

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when a shortfall is determined by the annual tracking reports.
First, the State may describe in its follow-up report what
actions it will take before the next milestone to make up for
this shortfall  [i.e., adopt and implement additional measures
(apart from the contingency measures) ] to avoid a milestone
failure.  For example, if annual tracking shows a 2 percent
shortfall/ the State could include in this follow-up tracking
report additional control measures (equaling the 2 percent
shortfall) to be implemented before the milestone demonstration.
As an alternative to this approach, the State may provide for
extra contingency measures sufficient to cover the additional
shortfall expected by the milestone demonstration date.  Under
this approach, the State must submit to EPA within 1 year from
the submittal of the follow-up report, the additional measures
that will be needed to remedy the shortfall.  Thus, more than the
3 percent of contingency measures would be available in reserve,
even though EPA would only require that sufficient contingency
measures be implemented to compensate for the degree of failure.
For example, if annual tracking determines a 2 percent shortfall,
the State could include in its next annual tracking report
additional contingency measures (equaling -the 2 percent
shortfall) to be implemented if the milestone demonstration  •
ascertains a shortfall of more than 3 percent.

     Sections 172(c)(9>, 182(c){9), and 187(a)(3) of the Act
specify that the contingency measures shall "take effect without
further action by the State or the Administrator."  The EPA
interprets this requirement to mean that no further rulemaking
activities by the State or EPA would be needed to implement the
contingency measures.  The EPA recognizes that certain actions,
such as notification of sources and modification of permits,
would probably be needed before a measure could be implemented
effectively.  States must show that their contingency measures
can be implemented with minimal further action on their part and
with no additional rulemaking actions such as public hearings or
legislative review.  In general, EPA will expect all actions
needed to effect full implementation of the measures to occur
within 60 days after EPA notifies the State of its failure.

9.3  Serious and Severe Areas

     Within 90 days of a serious or severe area milestone
failure, the CAAA require that States elect one of three options.
If a State elects to implement measures from the applicable
contingency plan, then the EPA will review the plan within
90 days and make a determination as to whether further measures
are necessary to meet the milestone.  The contingency measures
could be additional measures not already adopted to meet RF? cr
other requirements, or the accelerated implementation of measures
already planned to meet a future "milestone.  In this later case,
the State would have to adopt additional measures to backfill the
SIP with replacement measures to replace those that were

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previously  used as early-implementation contingency measures,  and
to assure the continuing adequacy of  the contingency program.
 [See  section III.A.4.p.of the General Preamble  (57 FR  13498).]

      States are encouraged to implement measures  as soon as a
milestone failure is deemed likely.   States  that  wait  until the
milestone failure occurs will have extremely limited time
available to implement and evaluate the measures  before  the next
milestone is met.

9.4   Nonclassifiable Areas

      Nonclassifiable areas include transitional,  submarginal,  and
incomplete/no data areas.  Section 185A exempts transitional
areas from  the Subpart 2 rules until December 31,  1991.   It is
not  clear from the CAAA, however, which of the Subpart 1
provisions  are required of transitional areas,  and in  particular,
 if contingency measures are required.  Because these areas have
 design values that fall below the moderate nonattainment area
 designation, and because marginal areas are exempt from the
 contingency measure requirement, the CAAA are interpreted as not
 requiring contingency measures for nonclassifiable areas.  If the
 transitional areas are reclassified as a moderate or higher
 nonattainment area, however, they would be subject to  the
 contingency measures requirement of that particular
 classification (again, marginal areas are exempt  from  the
 requirement).  [See section III.A.7.a.7 of the General Preamble
 (57  FR 13498).]

      Because submarginal and incomplete/no data areas  generally
 present ozone problems "that are less serious than marginal areas,
 which are  expressly exempted from the contingency measures
 requirement, and contingency measures are not likely  to be
 necessary to ensure attainment for these areas, EPA believes that
. it is not  appropriate to apply the contingency measure
 requirement for these areas under a de minimis approach.
 Nevertheless, contingency measures are required as part of the
 maintenance plan for nonclassifiable or other nonattainment areas
 that are redesignated attainment by EPA; these contingencies are
 discussed in a September 4, 1992 memorandum from  John  Calcagni,
 Director,  Air Quality Management Division, OAQPS, to Regional Air
 Division Directors, concerning "Procedures for Processing
 Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment."
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9.5  Examples

     Some examples of contingency measures for these areas
include:

     •    Measures required by the next higher classification.

     •    Transportation control measures.

          An employer trip reduction program.

     •    An economic incentive program.  The EPA has published a
          "Notice of Proposed Rulemaking" for economic incentive
          programs (58 FR 11110, February 23, 1993).  The final
          rule will be codified in 40 CFR Part 51 .   Appendix W of
          the proposed rule (58 FR 11130-11132)  includes examples
          of stationary and mobile source control measures for
          economic incentive programs.  Examples of mobile source
          control measures (discussed on pages 11131 and 11132 of
          the Federal Register notice) which could be used as
          contingency measures include, but are not limited to,
          the following:

          Fee Programs — Road pricing mechanisms are fee
          programs that are available to curtail low occupancy
          vehicle use, fund transportation system improvements
          and control measures, spatially and temporally shift
          driving patterns, and attempt to effect land usage
          changes.  Primary examples include increased peak
          period roadway, bridge, or tunnel tolls (this could
          also be accomplished with automated vehicle
          identification systems),  and toll discounts for pooling
          arrangements and zero-emitting/low-emitting vehicles.

          Tax Code Provisions — Mobile source tax code incentive
          strategies include waiving or lowering any of the
          following for zero or low-emitting vehicles:   vehicle
          registration fees,  vehicle property tax,  sales tax,
          taxicab license fees, and parking taxes.

          Subsidies — A State may create incentives for reducing
          emissions by offering direct subsidies, grants, or low
          interest loans to encourage purchase of lower-emitting
          capital equipment or a switch to less-polluting
          operating practices.  Examples of such programs include
          clean vehicle conversions, starting shuttle bus or van
          pool programs, and mass transit fare subsidies.

          Preretirement Reduction Program — An example would
          include an old car scrappage program.
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                            REFERENCES

1 .    Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and
     the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans.
     EPA-452/R-92-005, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  October 1992.

2.    BEA Regional Projections to 2040,  Volume I:  States, U.S.
     Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
     (Washington, DC:  U.S. Government Printing Office).  October
     1990.

3.    BEA Regional Projections to 2040,  Volume II:  Metropolitan
     Statistical Areas', U.S. Department of Commerce,  Bureau of
     Economic Analysis, (Washington, DC:  U.S.  Government
     Printing Office).  October 1990.

4.    BEA Regional Proiections to 2040,  Volume III:  BEA Economic
     Areas, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
     Analysis,  (Washington, DC:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office).  October 1990.

5.    Procedures for Preparing Emissions Proiections,  EPA-450/4-
     91-019, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
     Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     July 1991.

6.    Depreciation:  for Use in Preparing 1992 Returns,
     Publication No. 534,  Catalog No. 150640, U.S. Department of
     Treasury, Internal Revenue Service, Washington,  DC.

7.''  A Prelection Methodology for Future State Level  Volatile
     Organic Compound  (VOC) Emissions from Stationary Sources
     Version 2.0. EPA-600/8-88-090,  U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Air and Engineering Research Laboratory,  Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  July 1988.

8.    User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model.  Volume IV;  User's
     Manual for the Emissions Preprocessor System 2.0. Part A:
     Core FORTRAN System,  and Part B:  Interface and  Emissions
     Display System, EPA-450/4-90-007D(R),  U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency,- Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.   June 1992.

9.    Reference 5.

10.  Control Techniques for Volatile Organic Compound Emissions
     from Stationary Sources, EPA-453/R-92-018  (Revises EPA-
     450/2-78-O22), U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Office
     of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research  Triangle
     Park, NC.  December 1992.

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11.   OAOPS Control Cost Manual, EPA-450/3-90-006, U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     January 1990.

12.   Technical Guidance - Stage II Vapor Recovery Systems for
     Control of Vehicle Refueling Emissions at Gasoline
     dispensing Facilities, EPA-450/3-91-022a, U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  November 1991.

13.   Enforcement Guidance for Stage II Vehicle Refueling Control
     Programs. Draft, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI.  December 1991.

14.   Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV:
     Mobile Sources. EPA-450/4-81-026d  (Revised), U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  1992.

1 5.   Transportation Control Measure Information Documents, draft,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile
     Sources, Ann Arbor. MI.  October 1991.

16.   Transportation Control Measures:  State Implementation Plan
     Guidance, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
     Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI.  September 1990.

1 7.   Evaluation of Travel Demand Management Measures to Relieve
     Congestion, Report No, FHWA-SAi-90-005, U.S. Department of
     Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,
     Washington, .DC.  February 1990.

18.   Feasibility and Cost-Effectiveness of Controlling Emissions
     from Diesel Engines in Rail. Marine, Construction, Farm, and
     Other Mobile Off-Highway Equipment. U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Policy Analysis,
     Washington, DC.  February 1988.

19.  Summary of Group I Control Technique Guideline Documents for
     Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing
     Stationary Sources, EPA-450/3-78-120, U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  December 1978.

20.  Issues relating to VOC Regulation  Cutpoints, Deficiencies,
     and Deviations:  Clarification  to  Appendix D of November 24,
     1987 Federal Register,  (no document number issued), U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Office'of Air Quality
     Planning  and Standards.  May 25,  1988  (revised January  11,
     1990) .
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21.   Summary of Group II Control Technique Guideline Documents
     for Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing
     Stationary Sources. EPA-450/2-80-001 , U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park,  NC.  1980.

22.   Reference 20.

23.   "Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)  Rules for Reasonably
     Available Control Technology (RACT)," Memorandum from
     G.T. Helms, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
     Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Ozone and Carbon
     Monoxide Programs Branch, Research Triangle Park, NC, to
     Regional Division Directors.  June 24, 1992.

24.   Reference 20.
           •
25.   Air Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfills -
     Background Information for Proposed Standards and Emission
     Guidelines. EPA-450/3-90-011 (a) ,  U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park,  NC.  March 1991.

26.   Enabling Document for Regulations Governing Compliance
     Extensions for Early Reductions of Hazardous Air Pollutants,
     EPA-450/3-91-013, U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  July 1991.

27.   Questions and Answers about the Early Reductions Program,
     EPA-450/3-92-005, U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  January 1992.

28.   Procedures for Establishing Emissions for Early Reduction
     Compliance Extensions, EPA-450/3-91-012a,  U.S.  Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park,  NC.  February 1992.

29.   Coke Oven Emissions from Wet-Coal Charged Bv-Product Coke
     Oven Batteries - Background Information for Proposed
     Standards, EPA-450/3-85-028a,  U.S.  Environmental Protection
     Agency,  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
     Research Triangle Park, NC.  1987.

30.   Hazardous Waste TSDF's - Technical Guidance Document for
     RCRA Air Emissions for Process Vents  and Eguioment Leaks,
     EPA-450/3-89-021, U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  July 1990.
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31 .   Hazardous Waste TSDF/s - Background Information for Proposed
     RCRA Air Emissions Standards. EPA-450/3-89-023a,b,&c,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     June 1991.  (Note:  This reference is three volumes.)

32.   Guidelines for Estimating and Applying Rule Effectiveness
     for Ozone /CO State Implementation Plan Base Year
     Inventories .  EPA-452/R-92-010, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Ozone
     and Carbon Monoxide Programs Branch, Research Triangle Park,
     NC.  November 1992.

33.   Workshop on Requirements for Nonattainment Area Plans, No.
     1.2-102, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
     Quality Planning and Standards.  Revised Edition of April
     1978.

34.   AIRS User/s Guide:  AMS Data Storage,  U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
     Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  June 1992.

35.   Reference 14.

36.   Reference 6.

37.   Guideline on Air Quality Models. EPA-450/2-78-027R, U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     July 1986.

38.   Guideline for Use of Citv-Specific EKMA in Preparing Ozone
     SIP's, EPA-450/4-80-027, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
     Research Triangle Park, NC.  1980.

39.   Reference 37.

40.   Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed
     Model . EPA-450/4-91-01 , U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
     Research Triangle Park, NC.  1991.
     'Jser'3 Guide for the Urban Airshed Model, SPA-450/4-90-007,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  1990.
42 .  Reference 5 .

44.  Reference 1 .
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                 APPENDIX A:   DEFINITION OF  TERMS


     This appendix provides the specific definitions of EPA terms
as they are used in this guidance.  Different EPA programs
sometimes use different definitions of the same term (e.g., major
source).  This appendix notes where conflicts occur in the
definition of a term used in this guidance.   These definitions
are presented for the purposes of this guidance document only;
the reader is advised to refer to specific regulations, policies,
and sections of the Act to obtain complete definitions for the
program or title of interest.

Area Source  Any stationary or nonroad source that is too small
and/or too numerous to be included in the stationary point-source
emissions inventories.

Attainment Demonstration  Moderate and above ozone nonattainment
areas must demonstrate that the reductions specified in the
revised SIP will result in -modeled air quality for the
nonattainment area that achieves attainment  by the applicable
attainment date.  This requirement can be met through the
application of an EPA-approved model and EPA-approved modeling
techniques described in the current version of the Guidance on
Air Quality Models,6 which is currently under revision.   Two
models are suggested:  the UAM or EKMA.  The EPA requires the
submittal of attainment demonstrations employing UAM for serious
and above areas and multi-State moderate areas as part of the SIP
revision due by November 15,  1994.  Attainment demonstrations
based on EKMA for moderate nonattainment areas within a single
State  (intrastate moderate areas)  must be submitted as part of
the SIP revision due by November 15, 1993, unless the State
chooses to use UAM, in which case the demonstration must be
submitted as part of the SIP revision due by November 15, 1994.
The use of EKMA is described in Guideline for Use of City-
Specific EKMA in Preparing Ozone SIP's,7 as  well  as  the
aforementioned guideline that is under revision.   This document,
and the appropriate EPA Regional Office, should be consulted
before an analysis is conducted with this modeling approach.  The
6Guidance on Air Quality Models  (Revised),  EPA-450/2-78-027R,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  July 1986
(currently under revision).

7Guideline for^ Use of City-Specific  EKMA in Preparing Ozone
SIP's, EPA-450/4-80-027, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle
Park, NC.  1980.-

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use of UAM is described in Guideline for Regulatory Application
of the Urban" Airshed Model."8

Attainment Determination  The EPA must determine within .6 months
after the applicable attainment date whether an area has attained
the NAAQS for ozone.  The attainment dates are as follows:

          Marginal areas —   November 15, 1993.
          Moderate areas —   November 15, 1996.
     •    Serious areas  —   November 15, 1999.
          Severe areas   —   November 15, 2005 (severe areas
                              with a 1986-1988 ozone design value
                              of 0.190 up to, but not including,
                              0.280 parts per million have until
                              November 15, 2007).
     •    Extreme areas  —   November 15, 2010.

In making the attainment determination, EPA will use the most
recently available, quality-assured air quality data covering  the
3-year period preceding the attainment date.  For ozone, the
average number of exceedances per year after adjustment for
missing data are used to determine whether the area has attained.

Basic Inspection and Maintenance  (I/M)  Programs requiring the
inspection of vehicles including, but not limited to, measurement
of tailpipe emissions, and mandating that vehicles with tailpipe
emissions higher than the program outpoints be repaired to pass a
tailpipe emissions retest.  Basic I/M programs must be at least
as stringent as the requirements set out in section 182(a)(2)(B).

Manor Stationary Source  The Act has multiple definitions for
major stationary sources depending upon the nonattainment
classification and the pollutant.  Section 302 of the Act defines
a major stationary source as one that directly emits, or has the
potential to emit, 100 tpy or more of any air pollutant.  As
exceptions to this rule, major  stationary source emissions
thresholds, as defined in Part  D of Title I of the Act, are
listed in Table A-1 for both VOC and NOX sources.

Milestone Compliance Demonstration  For serious and above
classified nonattainment areas, demonstrating achievement of the
15 percent VOC emissions reduction over the  1990-1996 period,  or
demonstrating subsequent 3 percent VOC emissions reductions per
year averaged over each consecutive 3-year period from
November  15, 1996 until the attainment date.  Section 182(g)(2)
requires  that within 90 days of the date on which an applicable
 8Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model,
 EPA-450/4-91-013,  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,  Office  of
 Air Quality  Planning and Standards, Research Triangle  Park,  NC.
 1991.
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TABLE A-1.  MAJOR SOURCE THRESHOLDS AND MINIMUM EMISSIONS  OFFSET
 RATIO REQUIREMENTS FOR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA CLASSIFICATIONS
 Ozone Nonattainment Area
 voc
(tpy)9
(tpy)
   Minimum
  Emissions
Offset Ratio
  •Required
 Extreme
 Severe
 Serious
 Moderate
 Moderate,  in an ozone
   transport region
 Marginal
 Marginal,  in an ozone
   transport region
 All other  nonattainment areas,
   outside  of an ozone
   transport region11
 All other  nonattainment areas,
   in an ozone transport
   region11
 Attainment, in an ozone
   transport region
  10
  25
  50
 100

  50
 100

  50

 100

 100

  50
  10
  25
  50
 100

 100
-100

 100

 100

 100

 100
 1.5  to  110
 1.3  to  110
  1.2 to 1
 1.15 to 1

 1.15 to 1
  1.1 to 1

 1.15 to 1

 >1.0 to 1

 1.15 to 1

 1.15 to 1
 tpy = tons per year.
10The  minimum ratio is reduced to 1.2 to 1 if the applicable
State implementation plan requires  all major sources  of VOC and
NOX emissions  to use  best  available control  technology.
11 The  other  nonattainment  areas are submarginal, transitional,
and incomplete/no data.
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milestone occurs  (not including an attainment date on which a
milestone occurs in cases where the standard has been attained),
States with'nonattainment areas must submit a demonstration that
the milestone has been met  (e.g., the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction is demonstrated by February 13, 1997).  The EPA expects
to release regulations pertaining to the requirements of the
milestone demonstration in  the summer of 1993.

1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory  Section 182(b)(1)(B) and  (D)
describe the inventory  (hereafter referred to as the adjusted
base year inventory) from which moderate and above ozone
nonattainment areas must achieve a 15 percent reduction in VOC
emissions by 1996.  This inventory is equal "the total amount of
actual VOC or NOX emissions from all anthropogenic (man-made)
sources in the area during  the calendar year of enactment,"
excluding the emissions that would be eliminated by Federal Motor
Vehicle Control Program  (FMVCP) regulations promulgated by
January 1, 1990, and Reid vapor pressure (RVP) regulations  (55  FR
23666, June 11 / 1990), which require specific maximum RVP levels
for gasoline in particular  nonattainment areas during the peak
ozone season.  The 1990 rate-of-progress base year inventory
(defined below) removes biogenic emissions and emissions from
sources listed in the base  year inventory that are located
outside the nonattainment area.  The adjusted base year inventory
removes the emissions reductions from the FMVCP and RVP program
from the 1990 rate-of-progress base year inventory.  The adjusted
base year inventory, which  is due by November 15, 1992, is used
to calculate the required 15 percent reductions.

   Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory = Base Year Emissions
                  Inventory, minus the following:

     •    Biogenic source emissions.
     •    Emissions from sources outside of the nonattainment
          area boundary.
     •    Emissions reductions from the FMVCP.
     •    Emissions reductions from the RVP rules.

1990 Base Year Inventory  The 1990 base year inventory is an
inventory of actual annual  and typical weekday peak ozone season
emissions that States use in calculating their adjusted and
projected inventories, and  in developing their control strategy.
The base year inventory comprises emissions for the area durincr
the peak ozone season, which is generally the summer months.  it
includes anthropogenic sources of NOX and CO emissions, and both
anthropogenic and biogenic  sources of VOC emissions.  Also
included in the inventory are emissions from all stationary point
sources and area  sources as well as highway and nonhighway mobile
sources located within the  nonattainment area, and stationary
sources with emissions of 100 tpy or more of VOC, NOX, and CO
emissions within  a 25-mile  wide buffer zone of the designated
nonattainment area.  The base year inventory contains off-shore

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sources located within the nonattainment area boundaries and off-
shore stationary sources with emissions of 100 tpy or greater of
VOC, NOX/  or CO emissions within the 25-mile  wide buffer area.
For nonattainment areas that will perform photochemical grid
modeling  (e.g., serious and above areas and multi-State moderate
areas),  emissions for the entire modeling domain, which is
usually larger than the nonattainment area because ozone is an
areawide problem, are required in the modeling inventory.  This
modeling inventory could be submitted with the base year
inventory, or the modeling inventory submittal could be in a
separate package.  It is important to note that the 1990 base
year inventory serves as the starting point for all other
inventories.

1990 Rate-of-Progress Base Year Inventory  The 1990 rate-of-
progress base year inventory is an accounting of all
anthropogenic VOC, CO, and NOX emissions in the nonattainment
area.  This emissions inventory is calculated by removing
biogenic emissions and the emissions from sources that are
located outside of the nonattainment area from the base year
inventory.  This inventory is used in developing the adjusted
base year inventory.  It is also used as the  basis from which to
calculate the 1996 target level of emissions.

1996 Target Level Of Emissions  The 1996 target level of
emissions is the maximum amount of ozone season VOC emissions
that can been emitted by an ozone nonattainment area in 1996 for
that nonattainment area to be in compliance with the 15 percent
rate-of-progress requirements.  It is calculated by first taking
15 percent of the adjusted base year inventory emissions.  This
emissions value is then added to the expected emissions
reductions due to the FMVCP and RVP program,  and from corrections
to any deficient RACT rules and I/M programs.  The summation of
the 15 percent, the expected reductions from  deficient I/M and
RACT programs, and reductions from the FMVCP  and RVP program are
then subtracted from the 1990 rate-of'-progress base year
inventory to arrive at the 1996 target level  of emissions.   This
target is used by States to design their 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction control strategies.  The projected  contr.ol strategy
inventory used in the rate-of-progress plan must be at or below
the 1996 target level of emissions to demonstrate that the
15 percent VOC emissions reduction will be accomplished.

   1996 Target Level of Emissions = Rate-of-Progress Base Year
                 Inventory, minus the following:

     •    15 percent of the adjusted base year inventory
          emissions.
     •    Emissions reductions from corrections to any deficient
          RACT rules.
     •    Emissions reductions from corrections to deficient I/M
          programs.

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     •    Emissions reductions from the pre-1990 FMVCP-
     •    Emissions reductions from RVP rules.

Peak Ozone Season  The contiguous 3-month period of the year
during which the highest ozone exceedance days have occurred over
the 3 to 4 years prior to the 1990 base year.  Most ozone
nonattainment areas have a peak ozone season lasting from June
through August.

Offset Ratios  For the purpose of satisfying the emissions offset
reduction requirements of section 173(a)(1)(A),  the emissions
offset ratio is defined as the ratio of total actual emissions
reductions of VOC  [and NOX unless exempted under section 182(f)]
obtained as offsets from existing sources to total allowable
emissions increases of such pollutant from the new source.   (See
Table A-1 for a list of offset ratios by nonattainment area.)
Additional information on the credibility of offsets toward the
15 percent VOC-emissions reduction requirements, net of growth,
will be provided in an EPA document entitled Guidance on the
Relationship Between the 15 Percent Rate-of-Progress Plans and
Other Provisions of the Clean Air Act.  This document will be
released in the spring of 1993.

Point Source  Any  stationary source that has the potential to
emit more than some specified threshold level of a pollutant or
is identified as an individual source in a State's emissions
inventory.  For base year SIP inventory purposes, point sources
are defined as sources emitting  10 tpy or more of VOC emissions
or 100 tpy or more of NOX or CO emissions.

Post-1996 Rate-of-Progress Plan  The post-199.6 rate-of-progress
plan is the portion of the SIP revision due by November 15, 1994,
which describes how serious and  above areas plan to achieve the
post-1996, 3 percent per year VOC emissions reductions averaged
over each consecutive 3-year period from November. 15, 1996 until
the attainment date.  This SIP revision also includes the
attainment demonstration for moderate interstate nonattainment
areas and serious  and above nonattainment areas.

RACT "Catch-ups"   RACT "catch-up" refers to the application of
RACT for all applicable sources  as listed in section 182(b)(2),
regardless of what was previously required.  Each moderate and
above ozone nonattainment area  (as well as attainment areas
within the ozone transport region) are subject to the RACT
"catch-up" requirement of section 182(b)(2).  The new law
requires any of the above areas  that had not previously been
required to adopt  RACT consistent with all of the CTG's to
"catch-up" and apply RACT to all sources covered by a pre-
enactment or post-enactment CTG  document.  Many- of"these areas
were not previously required to  apply RACT to sources covered by
the Group III CTG  documents  (i.e., CTG documents published after
September 1982).   In addition, areas previously considered rural

                               A-6

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nonattainment, which had to apply RACT only to certain major
sources in certain CTG categories under prior policy, will have
to revise their SIP's to apply RACT to all sources, including
nonmajor sources, that are covered by any CTG.  The RACT "catch-
up" provision also requires these nonattainment areas to adopt
RACT rules for all major sources not covered by a CTG.
Additional information on the RACT "catch-up" program will be
provided in forthcoming guidance regarding the interaction of
RACT rules with emissions inventories.

RACT "Fix-ups"  These are corrections States are required to make
under section 182 (a) (2) (1) to their current RACT rules to make up
for deficiencies  (e.g., improper exemptions)  in preamendment
plans.  Under RACT "fix-ups," States are required to have RACT
rules that comply with section 172(b) of the pre-1990 Act, as
interpreted by EPA's preamendment guidance.  Since the RACT "fix-
up" provisions refer to RACT as required by preamended section
172(b), only areas subject to preamended section 172(b)  need to
meet the RACT "fix-up" requirement.  Therefore, for nonattainment
areas that will be expanded to contain regions that were
designated attainment prior to enactment, the RACT corrections
are only for the original nonattainment area.  The RACT "fix-up"
provision essentially codifies EPA's SIP calls, issued in May
1988 and November 1989 [as announced in the Federal Register on
September 7, 1988 (53 FR 34500)  and July 30,  1990 (55 FR 30973)].
The RACT fix-ups were due on May 15, 1991.  Between May 24 and
June 24, 1991, EPA's Regional Offices mailed letters to several
Governors and air agency officials concerning the progress of the
States in meeting RACT "fix-up" requirements and listing the
deficiencies remaining.  Additional information on the RACT "fix-
up" program will be provided in forthcoming guidance regarding
the interaction of RACT rules with emissions inventories.

Rate-of-Progress Plan  The portion of the SIP revision due by
November 15, 1993, that describes how moderate and above ozone
nonattainment areas plan to achieve the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction.  All moderate intrastate areas that choose to utilize
the EKMA in their attainment demonstrations,  are also required to
include their attainment demonstration in this SIP revision.

Rule Effectiveness (RE)  For stationary sources,  a measure of the
extent to which a regulatory program achieves emissions
reductions.  An RE of 100 percent reflects a regulatory  program
achieving all the emissions reductions that could be achieved by
full compliance with the applicable regulations at all sources at
all times.  However, regulations typically are not 100 percent
effective due to limitations of control techniques or
shortcomings in the implementation and enforcement process.   The
EPA allows the use of several different methods for determining
RE including-: . an 80 percent default value, results from EPA
questionnaires,  or results from a Stationary Source Compliance
Division (SSCD)  study.

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Volatile Organic Compound  Any compound of carbon, excluding CO,
carbon dioxide, carbonic acid, metallic carbides or carbonates,
and ammonium carbonate, which participates in atmospheric
photochemical reactions.  This includes any. organic compound
other than those EPA has determined to have negligible
photochemical reactivity (57 FR 3945, February 3, 1992).
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      APPENDIX B:  REFERENCES FOR CTG AND ACT DOCUMENTS FOR
                      STATIONARY VOC SOURCES


Group I CTG Documents for Stationary VOC Sources

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume I;  Control Methods for Surface Coating
Operations, EPA-450/2-76-028, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC.  November 1976.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume II:  Surface Coating of Cans,  Coils, Paper,
Fabrics, Automobiles, and Light-Duty Trucks,  EPA-450/2-77-008,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  May 1977.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume III:  Surface Coating of Metal Furniture,
EPA-450/2-77-032, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1977.

Control.of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume IV:  Surface Coating for Insulation of Magnet
Wire. EPA-450/2-77-033, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  December 1977.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume V:  Surface Coating of Large Appliances.
EPA-450/2-77-034, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1977-

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Bulk Gasoline Plants,
EPA-450/2-77-035, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1977.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Storage of Petroleum
Liguids in Fixed-Roof Tanks, EPA-450/2-77-036,  U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  December 1977.

Control of Refinery Vacuum Producing Systems, Wastewater
Separators, and Process Unit Turnarounds, SPA-450/2-77-025,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
October 1977.
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Control of Volatile Organic Compounds from Use of Cutback
Asphalt.  EPA-450/2-77-037, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.-
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  December 1977.

Control of Hydrocarbons from Tank Truck Gasoline Loading
Terminals. EPA-450/2-77-026, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC.  October 1977.

Design Criteria for Stage I Vapor Control Systems - Gasoline
Service Stations,  (no document number issued), U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  November 1975.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Solvent Metal
Cleaning. EPA-450/2-77-022, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  November 1977.

Summary of Group I Control Technigue Guideline Documents for
Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources, EPA-450/3-78-120, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  December 1978.

Group II CTG Documents for Stationary VOC Sources

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume VI:  Surface Coating of Miscellaneous Metal
Parts.and Products. EPA-450/2-78-015, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  June 1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume VII:  Factory Surface Coating of Flat Wood
Paneling, EPA-450/2-78-032, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  June 1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources - Volume VIII:  Graphic Arts - Rotogravure and
Flexoaraphv, EPA-450/2-78-033, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC.  December  1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Leaks from Petroleum
Refinery Eguipment, EPA-450/2-78-036, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning- and Standards,
Research Triangle  Park, NC.  June 1978.
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Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Petroleum Liquid
Storage in External Floating Roof Tanks. EPA-450/2-78-047,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Leaks from Gasoline Tank
Trucks and Vapor Collection Systems. EPA-450/2-78-051,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Manufacture of
Synthesized Pharmaceutical Products, EPA-450/2-78-029,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1978.

Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Manufacture of
Pneumatic Rubber Tires, EPA-450/2-78-030, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  December 1978.

Summary of Group II Control Technique Guideline Documents for
Control of Volatile Organic Emissions from Existing Stationary
Sources, EPA-450/2-80-001, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  December 1979.

Group III CTG Documents for Stationary VOC Sources

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Large
Petroleum Dry Cleaners, EPA-450/3-82-009, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  September 1982.

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Manufacture
of High-Density Polyethylene, Polypropylene, and Polystyrene
Resins. EPA-450/3-83-008, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC.  November 1983.

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Equipment Leaks from Natural
Gas/Gasoline Processing Plants, EPA-450/2-83-007,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1983.
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Control of VOC Fugitive Emissions from Synthetic Organic
Chemical, Polymer, and Resin Manufacturing Equipment,
EPA-450/3-83-006, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
March 1984.

Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Air Oxidation
Processes in Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry,
EPA-450/3-84-015, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December, 1984.

Procedures for the Preparation of Emission Inventories for Carbon
Monoxide and Precursors of Ozone Volume I:  General Guidance for
Stationary Sources, Appendix C, EPA-450/4-91-016,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  May 1991.

New CTG Documents for Stationary VOC Sources

     Appendix E of the General Preamble (57 FR 18077) discusses
EPA's plans for publishing new CTG documents.  The EPA must issue
11 CTG documents by November 15, 1993.  The 11 source categories
for which EPA plans to issue CTG documents are as follows:
(1) SOCMI distillation;  (2) SOCMI reactors; (3) SOCMI batch
processing; (4) wood furniture;  (5) plastic parts coating
(business machines);  (6) plastic parts coating (other);  (7) web
offset lithography; (8) industrial wastewater; (9) autobody
refinishing;   (10) volatile organic liquid storage in floating
and fixed-roof tanks; and 11) clean-up solvents.  In addition,
section 183(b) of the Act specifically requires EPA to prepare
CTG documents for aerospace coatings and solvents, and for
paints, coatings, and solvents used in ship building and repair
by November 15, 1993.

     As of March 1993, none of the new CTG documents have been
finalized.  The following discusses the most recent background
information or draft CTG document available.

SOCMI Reactor Processes and Distillation Operations

     Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Reactor
     Processes and Distillation Operations Processes in  the
     Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry, draft
     CTG, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
     Quality Planning and Standards, Research. Triangle Park, NC.
     This document is expected to be finalized in the spring of
     1993.
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SOCMI Batch Processes

     Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Batch
     Processes, draft CTG, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  September 1991.

Coating of Wood Furniture

     Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Wood
     Furniture Coating Operations, draft CTG (chapters 1-5),
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     October 1991.

Coating of Plastic Parts

     Surface Coating of Plastic Parts Control Techniques
     Guideline, draft CTG, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  October 1, 1991.

Web Offset Lithography

     Offset Lithographic Printing Control Techniques Guideline,
     draft CTG, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of
     Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park,
     NC.  1991.

Industrial Wastewater

     As of March 1993, a draft CTG document for industrial
wastewater has not been prepared.  The following document for
BACT/LAER determinations may be consulted for information on
control techniques for industrial wastewater.

     Industrial Wastewater Volatile Organic Compound Emissions -
     Background Information for BACT/LAER Determinations.
     EPA-450/3-90-004, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  January 1990.

Autobodv Refinishinq

     Automobile Refinishina Control Techniques Guideline, draft
     CTG, U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
     Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle Park, NC.
     September 27, 1991.   [Note:  The EPA originally intended to
     issue a CTG document for autobody refinishing.  However, EPA
     has decided to prepare a national rulemaking instead of
     issuing a CTG document.  For further information on the
     status of the rulemaking, contact Ms. Ellen Ducey of EPA's

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     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards [(919) 541-
     5408)].  .

Volatile Organic Liquid Storage in Floating'and Fixed-Roof Tanks

     Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Volatile
     Organic Liquid Storage in Floating and Fixed-Roof Tanks,
     draft CTG, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
     Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park,
     NC.  September 30, 1991.

Clean-Up Solvents

     As of March 1993, a draft CTG document for clean-up solvents
has not been prepared.

Aerospace Coatings and Solvents

     As of March 1993, a draft CTG document for aerospace
coatings and solvents has not been prepared.  A background
information study of aerospace coating facilities in California
has been completed by the EPA Region IX Office in conjunction
with several local California air quality control agencies.

     Aerospace coatings include radiation coatings, thermocontrol
coatings, electrostatic discharge coatings, fuel tank coatings,
and all other protective coatings.  Emissions may occur during
application of the prime coat, during lubricant application, and
while topcoating.  No emissions limits, costs, or monitoring
techniques have been established for controls on this industry.

Ship Building Operations and Ship Repair

     The EPA is preparing a CTG document for controlling VOC
emissions  from ship building operations and ship repair.  A draft
CTG document is planned for release in the fall of 1993.  A final
CTG document is planned for release in the fall of 1994.  The CTG
document will contain information on the VOC'emissions  sources
associated with ship building operations and ship repair, VOC
emissions  estimates, best available control measures, and control
cost estimates.
                                B-6

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ACT Documents for Stationary VOC Sources

Haloaenated Solvent Cleaners. EPA-450/3-89-030, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  August 1989.   [Note:
This ACT document discusses five halogenated solvents; four of
which are exempted from the definition of VOC.  Trichloroethylene
is the only solvent discussed in the document which is classified
as a VOC.  Trichloroethylene emissions reductions may be
creditable toward the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
requirements, net of growth.  However, emissions reductions for
solvents exempted from the definition of VOC are not creditable
toward the 15 percent requirements. ]

Reduction of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Application
of Traffic Markings, EPA-450/3-88-007, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  August 1988.

Ethvlene Oxide Sterilization/Fumigation Operations, EPA-450/3-89-
007, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.  March 1989.

Reduction of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Automobile
Refinishiner. EPA-450/3-88-009, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research
Triangle Park, NC.  October 1988.

Organic Waste Process Vents. EPA-450/3-91-007, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC.  December 1990.
                               B-7

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B-8

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        APPENDIX C:  BACKGROUND INFORMATION DOCUMENTS FOR
           STATIONARY VOC SOURCES  SUBJECT TO NEW SOURCE
        PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (NSPS)  AND NATIONAL EMISSION
         STANDARDS FOR HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS  (NESHAP)


     This appendix lists the NSPS and NESHAPS that EPA has
promulgated for stationary sources of VOC emissions, and cites
the CFR references and BID numbers for the NSPS and NESHAPS.  The
NSPS are national standards that affect new,  modified, or
reconstructed stationary sources.   The NESHAPS are national
standards for controlling HAP's from existing and new stationary
sources.  Only the NESHAPS that control HAP's that are also
classified as VOC are presented in this appendix.

     Each of the NSPS and NESHAP regulations define the affected
facility or facilities.  The reader should consult the relevant
CFR reference for details on the definition of the affected
facility or facilities; the emissions standards; and
recordkeeping, reporting, monitoring, and emissions testing
requirements.  The BID'S contain technical information on the
emissions sources and emissions, alternative controls considered
during the development of the standards, the performance of the
alternative controls evaluated, and estimated control costs.

     Subpart A of 40 CFR Part 60 contains the General Provisions
for NSPS.  Subpart A discusses the applicability of NSPS;
provides definitions of terms; and contains general requirements
(including but not limited to) that address recordkeeping,
performance tests, monitoring, reconstruction, and modification.
Subpart B of 40 CFR Part 60 contains requirements for adoption
and submittal of SIP's for designated facilities.

     Subpart A of 40 CFR Part 61 contains the General Provisions
for NESHAPS.  Subpart A provides definitions of terms, and
contains general requirements  (including but not limited to) that
address prohibited activities, the determination of construction
or modification, application for approval of construction or
modification, notification of .startup, recordkeeping, reporting,
monitoring, and emissions testing.

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New Source Performance Standards
Source Category
Emissions guidelines and
compliance times for
municipal waste combustors
Municipal waste combustors
Storage vessels for
petroleum liquids for which
construction,
reconstruction, or
modification commenced
after 6/11/73 and prior to
5/19/78
Storage vessels for
petroleum liquids for which
construction,
reconstruction, or
modification commenced
after 5/18/78 and prior to
7/23/84
Volatile organic liquid
storage vessels (including
petroleum liquid) for which
construction ,
reconstruction, or
modification commenced
after 7/23/84
Surface coating of metal
furniture
Automobile and light -duty
truck surface coating
operations
Graphic arts industry:
publication rotogravure
printing
Pressure sensitive tape and
label surface coating
operations
Industrial surface coating
of large appliances
Metal coil surface coating
SOCMI equipment leaks
Beverage can surface
coating industry
Bulk gasoline terminals
Reference :
40 CFR Part 60
Subpart Ca
Subpart Ea
Subpart K
Subpart Ka
Subpart Kb
Subpart EE
Subpart MM
Subpart QQ
Subpart RR
Subpart SS
Subpart TT
Subpart W
Subpart WW
Subpart XX
BID Number (s)
EPA-450/3-89-027
a,b,c,&e
APTD-1352a&b
EPA-450/2-74-003
EPA-450/3-81 -003a&b
EPA-450/3-80-007a&b
EPA-450/3-79-030a&b
EPA-450/3-80-031a&b
EPA-450/3-80-003a&b
SPA-450/3-30-037a&b
EPA-450/3-80-035a&b
EPA-450/3-80-033a&b
[
\
EPA-450/3-80-036a&b
EPA-450/3-80-038a&b
                                C-2

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New Source Performance Standards  (Continued)
Source Category
Rubber tire manufacturing
industry
Polymer manufacturing
industry
Flexible vinyl and urethane
coating and printing
Petroleum refineries:
equipment leaks
Synthetic fiber production
facilities
SOCMI air oxidation unit
processes
Petroleum dry cleaners
On-shore natural gas
processing plants
SOCMI distillation
operations
Petroleum refinery
wastewater systems
Magnetic tape coating
facilities
Surface coating of plastic
parts for business machines
Polymeric coating of
supporting substrates
facilities
Reference :
40 CFR Part 60
Subpart BBB
Subpart DDD
Subpart FFF
Subpart GGG
Subpart HHH
Subpart III
Subpart JJJ
Subpart KKK
Subpart NNN
Subpart QQQ
Subpart SSS
Subpart TTT
Subpart VW
BID Number (s)
EPA-450/3-81 -008a&b
EPA-450/3-83-01 9a&b
EPA-450/3-81 -01 6a&b
EPA-450/3-81 -01 5a&b
EPA-450/3-82-01 la&b
EPA-450/3-82-001 a&b
EPA-450/3-82-01 2a&b
EPA-450/3-82-024a&b
EPA-450/3-83-005a&b
EPA-450/3-85-001 a&b
EPA-450/3-85-029a&b
EPA-450/3-85-01 9a&b
EPA-450/3-85-022a
                              G-3

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National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
Source Category
Vinyl chloride
production plants
Equipment leaks
(fugitive emission
sources) of benzene
Benzene emissions from
coke by-product
recovery plants
Equipment leaks
(fugitive emission
sources) of VOC's
Benzene emissions from
benzene storage
vessels
Benzene emissions from
benzene transfer
operations
Benzene waste
operations
Benzene emissions from
ethylbenzene/
styrene12
Reference :
40 CFR Part 61
Subpart F
Subpart J
Subpart L
Subpart V
Subpart Y
Subpart BB
Subpart FF

BID Number (s)
EPA-450/2-75-009a&b
EPA-450/3-80-032a&b
EPA-450/3-83-01 6a&b

EPA-450/3-80-034a
EPA-450/3-78-031
EPA-450/5-84-001
EPA-450/3-80-028b
EPA-450/3-87-001a
EPA-450/3-79-035a
EPA-450/3-84-003
 12The proposed NESHAP for this source category was followed by a
 proposal  to withdraw the proposed NESHAP.
                               C-4

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        APPENDIX D:   CONTROL MEASURES  FROM THE  AIR QUALITY
         MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR THE SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY
                MANAGEMENT DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA


     The following is a list of control measures for stationary
(point and area) and mobile VOC (or reactive organic gases)
source categories from the SCAQMD's 1991 Air Quality Management
Plan for the South Coast Air Basin.  The list of stationary
source control measures is for source categories not covered by
CTG documents.  Additional information on these control measures
can be obtained from the Public Information Office of the SCAQMD
[(714) 396-2000].

Stationary Source Control Measures - Point Sources (From
Appendix IV-A)

Surface Coating and Solvent Use:
     Manufacture of Electronic Components.

Petroleum and Gas Production:
•    Outer Continental Shelf Exploration, Development,  and
     Production.
•    Petroleum Refinery Flares.

Industrial and Commercial Processes:
•    Manufacture of Rubber Products.

Residential and Public Sectors:
•    Publicly Owned Treatment Works.

Other Sources:
•    Emission Minimization Management Plan.
     Marketable Permit Program.

Stationary Source Control Measures - Area Sources (From
Appendix IV-B)

Surface Coating and Solvent Use:
     Architectural Coatings.
•    Substitute Solvents for Surface Coating Clean-Up.
     Domestic Products.
     Solvent waste.
                               D-1

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Petroleum and- Gas Production:
     Gasoline Transfer:  Fail Safe Phase-I Vapor Recovery
                         Systems.
•    Gasoline Transfer:  Improved Installation and Repair of
                         Phase-II Vapor Recovery Systems.
•    Pleasure Boat Fueling Operations.
     Organic Liquid Transfer.
•    Gasoline Dispensing Facilities.
     Utility Engine Refueling Operations.
•    Over-Filling Vehicle Fuel Tanks.
•    Draining of Liquid Products.

Commercial and Industrial Processes:
     Large Commercial Bakeries.
•    Commercial Charbroiling.
•    Laboratory Fume Hoods.
•    Deep Fat Frying.
•    Miscellaneous Combustion Sources.
•    Internal Combustion Engines.

Residential and Public Sectors:
     Out-of-Basin Transport of Solid Waste.

Agricultural Processes:
•    Pesticide Application.
•    Livestock Waste.

Others:
•    Installation of Best Available Retrofit Control Technology
     on Miscellaneous  Sources.
 •    Low Emission Methods and Materials  for Building
     Construction.

Mobile and Indirect Source Control Measures  (From Appendix  IV-C)

On-road Vehicles:
     Zero-emission Urban Bus Implementation.
 •    Low-emission New  Fleet Vehicles.
 •    Motor-Vehicle Buy-back  Program.
     Eliminate Excessive Car Dealership  Cold Starts.
 •    Eliminate Excessive Curb Idling.
     Aerodynamic Devices for Trucks.
     Eliminate Emissions from Advertising  Vehicles.
     Inspection and Maintenance  Program  Enhancements.

Off-road Vehicles:
     Control of Emissions from Jet Aircraft.
     Control of Emissions from Marine  Vessel Tanks.
     Lower Emissions from Military Aircraft-
 •    Eliminate Leaf Blowers.
 •    Emission Standards  for  Construction and Farm Equipment.


                               D-2

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Indirect Sources:
     Environmental Review Program.
     Trip Reduction for Schools.
     Supplement Development Standards,
     Special Activities Centers.
     Enhanced Regulations.
     Truck Programs.
     Registration Programs.
                                D-3

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D-4

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       APPENDIX E;   CURRENT ACT DOCUMENTS  AND OTHER FEDERAL
                         CONTROL MEASURES


     Appendix E of this document provides a summary of the
information presented in the ACT documents for halogenated
solvent cleaners, application of traffic markings, automobile
refinishing., ethylene oxide sterilization/fumigation operations,
and organic waste processes.  The references for .these ACT
documents are presented in Appendix B of this document.  The EPA
has not performed a word-by-word comparison of the information
presented in Appendix E of this document to the information
presented in the ACT documents.  Where discrepancies occur
between Appendix E and the ACT documents,  the information in the
ACT documents takes precedence.

     Appendix E of this document also provides a brief status
report on the development of other federal control measures for
consumer and commercial products, adhesives, application of
agricultural pesticides, architectural and industrial coatings,
autobody refinishing, marine vessel loading operations, and ship
building operations and ship repair.

ACT Documents

Halogenated Solvent Cleaners

     Halogenated solvent cleaners commonly employ one of five
halogenated solvents:  1,1,1-trichloroethane, perchloroethylene,
methylene chloride, trichlorotrifluoroethane, and
trichloroethylene.  The cleaning apparatuses that use these
solvents vary in size from small benchtop models to large
industrial size cleaners.  Solvent evaporation emissions may come
from the air/solvent vapor interface, from the clean parts as
they emerge from the cleaner, from equipment and storage leaks,
and from transfer losses.  Of the five halogenated solvents
discussed in the ACT document, four have been exempted from the
definition of VOC.  Trichloroethylene is the only solvent
discussed in the document which is classified as a VOC.
Trichloroethylene emissions reductions may be creditable toward
the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements,  net of
growth.  However, emissions reductions for solvents exempted from
the definition of VOC are not creditable toward the 1 5 percent
requirements.

     Emissions reduction techniques will include features which
limit losses from diffusion and convection,  carryout,  leaks,
downtime, solvent transfer, water contamination, and waste
disposal.  Multiple control techniques are examined in the ACT,
for interface, in-line emissions, and fugitive emissions.  Vapor
interface emissions may be reduced by a combination of carbon
adsorption, reducing the primary condenser temperature, a

                               E-1

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freeboard refrigeration device, and other controls.  Workload
emissions may be reduced by carbon adsorption.  Adequate control
will usually be attained through several control technologies,
with emissions reductions of approximately 70 percent.
Additionally, the ACT document suggests alternative cleaning
agents that would further reduce emissions.

     Costs vary widely with the respective control technologies.
The document presents retrofit cost estimates for three model
cleaner sizes and two operating schedules.  Cost-effective
control .strategies are available for all halogenated solvent
cleaners.

     No monitoring techniques are provided in the document.

Reduction of Volatile Organic Compounds from the Application of
Traffic Markings

     Traffic marking materials must withstand different types of
weather and varying levels of tire wear.  Because of the variety
of performance requirements for traffic markings, these materials
have many different physical and chemical properties.  'Most
emissions occur from solvent-borne paint traffic markings, which
are the most widely used.

     Five alternatives to solvent-borne paint are discussed in
the ACT document.  The five alternatives include waterborne
paints, thermoplastics, preformed tapes, field-reacted materials,
and permanent markers.  Each alternative emits less VOC than
solvent-borne paints.  Use of thermoplastics, preformed tapes
without adhesive primer, field-reacted materials, and permanent
markers can reduce emissions associated with solvent-borne paints
by 100 percent.  Preformed tapes with adhesive primer can reduce
VOC emissions by 15 percent.  Waterborne paints may achieve an
81 percent reduction in VOC emissions.  Waterborne paints are
latex emulsions which typically contain organic solvents
 (approximately 80 grams of VOC per liter of coating).

   *  A cost analysis was performed for solvent-borne paint,
waterborne paint, thermoplastic, and field-reacted materials.
A cost savings over solvent-borne paint was found for all
alternatives except for thermoplastic.

     No monitoring techniques are discussed in the document.
                               E-2

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Reduction of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Automobile
Refinishing

     Automobile refinishing may be categorized into four
processes:  vehicle preparation, primer application, topcoat
application, and spray equipment cleanup.  Emissions occur from
solvent evaporation during preparation, cleanup, and directly
after coating applications.

     Alternative controls were examined for small, medium, and
large shops.  Emissions reduction techniques include alternative
coatings, new spray equipment with improved transfer efficiency,
installation of solvent recovery spray equipment cleaning
systems, and add-on controls  (for volume shops only).

     Significant VOC emissions reductions (30 percent to
45 percent) result from replacing conventional air-atomizing
spray guns with high-volume, low-pressure spray guns, at a cost
savings due to higher transfer efficiency.  Volatile organic
compound emissions reductions of 15 percent can be attained from
using a cleanup solvent recovery system, which also results in
savings due to reduced solvent usage.  Switching from
conventional primers to waterborne primers results in a
20 percent VOC emissions reduction at no additional cost.  Add-
on controls can achieve emissions reductions up to 60 percent;
however, add-on controls are more costly than the other three
control techniques discussed in the document.

     Applicable monitoring techniques include recordkeeping,
testing the VOC content of coatings, inspections, emissions
testing, and equipment testing.  Recordkeeping is the most
universal approach, augmented by inspections and the testing of
the VOC content of coatings.  Emissions testing and equipment
testing are less effective.

Sthvlene Oxide Sterili~ation/Fu-rnicaticn. Operations

     Ethylene oxide is used as a sterilant/fumigant in the
production of medical equipment supplies, in miscellaneous
sterilization and fumigation operations, and at hospitals.
             . — - - . —. «» —• A - - - -—• ŁJ^    -"• J^ - • — •»— Ł•_ ™ f^ "• —»  «•..-— •»— *«n , »

             _ - * * -mm ™ * • " •— - •> —- *•** **"•• "  ~ * " *•* "  -——•—. —— ^-» ~1- *-*•  - • * •—•" —. 'wrf1 _

-------
     Control efficiencies range from 98 percent to 99 percent for
emissions from sterilizer vents.  No control efficiencies have
been developed for the low ethylene oxide concentrations from
aeration rooms.  A cost analysis is developed in the ACT for an
acid hydrolysis system with a vacuum pump for recirculation of
each sterilizer.

     No monitoring techniques are discussed in the document.

Organic Waste Process Vents

     The waste management industry is diverse and complex, and
covers a broad spectrum of industry types and sizes.  Major
elements of waste management include generation, transportation,
storage, treatment, and disposal.  Organic-containing wastes may
be emitted from process vents associated with each of the above
elements.

     Both vapor recovery control devices  (condensers, adsorbers,
and absorbers) -and vapor combustion control devices
 (incinerators, flares, and industrial boilers) are discussed in
the ACT document.  Vapor recovery devices are cited as the more
attractive option where a significant quantity of usable organics
can be recovered.  However, these control technologies may not be
applicable to certain process vent streams.  Expected emissions
reductions for all control options range from 95 percent to
98 percent.

     Costs are estimated for 71 model process vent streams and
are too numerous to be summarized here.  Monitoring techniques
are described for each control technology in the ACT document.
Monitoring may be performed on the emissions streams themselves
or on parameters of the control, devices.  For most control
devices described in the ACT document, monitoring variables such
as flowrate and temperature are sufficient.

Other Federal Control Measures

Consumer and Commercial Products

     Consumer and commercial products include a wide variety of
items, including deodorants, spray paints, hair care products,
and household cleaners.  Although no information on control
technologies is available at this time, the final document will
consist of 17 different volumes, divided  into 6 generic reports
and 11 product category studies.  The- consumer and commercial
products study will not be available in its entirety until
November 1993.
                               E-4

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Adhesives

     Control measures for adhesives are no -longer under
development as a  separate document, but limited information is to
be included in the guidance on consumer and commercial products.
No information is available at this time.

Architectural and Industrial Coatings

     The EPA is using regulatory negotiation to prepare a
national rulemaking for controlling VOC emissions from
architectural and industrial coatings.  For further information
on the status of  the rulemaking, contact Ms. Ellen Ducey of  EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards [(919) 541-5408)].

Autobodv Refinishing

     The EPA originally intended to issue a CTG document for
autobody refinishing.  However, EPA has decided to prepare a
national rulemaking instead of issuing a CTG document.  For
further information on the status of the rulemaking, contact
Ms. Ellen Ducey of EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards  [(919)  541-5408)].

Application of Agricultural Pesticides

     The EPA has  prepared a final ACT document which presents
information on control techniques for reducing VOC emissions
associated with the application of" agricultural pesticides.  The
document also presents nationwide emissions estimates for organic
solvents and nationwide usage estimates for active ingredients in
agricultural pesticides.  The reference for the ACT document is
as follows:

     Control of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from the
     Application  of Agricultural Pesticides, EPA-453/R-92-011,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.   1993.

Marine Vessel Loading Operations

     The SPA has  prepared a technical support document wnz.cn
presents information on control techniques for reducing VOC and
hazardous air pollutant (HAP)  emissions associated with marine
vessel loading and unloading operations.   Standards for marine
vessel loading operations are scheduled to be proposed in 1993.
The reference for the technical support document is as follows:
                               E-5

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     VOC/HAP .Emissions from Marine Vessel Loading Operations:
     Technical Support Document for Proposed Standards, EPA-
     450/3-93-001a, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office
     of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle
     Park, NC.  May 1992.

Ship Building Operations and Ship Repair

     The EPA is preparing a CTG document for controlling VOC
emissions from ship building operations and ship repair.  A draft
CTG document is planned for release in the fall of 1993.  A final
CTG document is planned for release in the fall of 1994.  The CTG
document will contain information on the VOC emissions sources
associated with ship building operations and ship repair, VOC
emissions estimates, best available control measures, and control
cost estimates.  In addition, EPA is preparing an NESHAP to
control emissions of hazardous air pollutants from ship building
operations and ship repair.  The NESHAP is planned for
promulgation in 1994.
                               E-6

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APPENDIX F:   PROCEDURES  FOR  CALCULATING  THE  1996  TARGET LEVEL OF
     EMISSIONS AND DISCUSSION OF CONTROL  STRATEGY  DEVELOPMENT


     This appendix provides an overview of the steps involved  in
calculating the target level of emissions and total emissions
reductions for 1996, and discusses the development of control
strategies for achieving the required emissions reductions.
A hypothetical example is used to show the steps involved in
calculating the target level of emissions and total emissions
reductions for 1996.  The discussion on the development of
control strategies summarizes the control measures required by
the CAAA for moderate and serious nonattainment areas.   Issues
concerning the creditability of emissions reductions toward the
15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements are also
discussed.  Examples of five hypothetical nonattainment areas
(four moderate and one serious) are presented to illustrate the
control strategy development process, development  of contingency
measures, and to provide suggested formats for reporting control
measures and associated emissions reductions in the rate-of-
progress plans.

Calculation of the Target Level of Emissions and Total  Emissions
Reductions for 1996

     To determine their control strategies for achieving the
required 15 percent VOC emissions reductions, net  of growth,
States will need to calculate the 1996 target level of  emissions
-- the maximum amount of emissions allowed in 1996 given the
rate-of-progress requirement.  This section presents a
hypothetical example to describe the calculation of the target
level and total emissions reductions for 1996.   Figure  F-1
presents a flowchart of the steps involved in calculating the
target level and the emissions reductions for the  hypothetical
example.

Calculation of the 1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory

     Section 182(b)(1) of the Act specifies the emissions
"baseline" from which the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction is
calculated.  This baseline value is termed the 1990 adjusted base
vear inventory   Section 182(b)(1)(3) defines baseline  emissions
(for purposes of calculating che 15 perosnt VOC emissions
reduction) as "the _ocai amount of actual VOC or MOX  emissions
from all anthropogenic sources in the area during  the calendar
year of enactment."  Section 182(b)(1)(D) excludes fro™, the
baseline the emissions that would be eliminated by FMVC?
regulations oromulgated by January 1, 1990,  and RVP regulations

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     FINAL BASE
     YEAR  (1990)
     INVENTORY*
    12,000 LB/DAY
I
NJ
                1990  RATE-OF-
                   PROGRESS
                  BASE YEAR
                  INVENTORY
                 5,800 LB/DAY
                 SUBTRACT
                  BIOGENICS.
               EMISSIONS OUTSIDE
              NONATTAINMENT AREA
            ADD GROWTH
            650 LB/DAY
   1990  ADJUSTED
      BASE YEAR
      INVENTORY
    5,300 LB/DAY
                               SUBTRACT
                                 FMVCP
                             RVP REDUCTIONS
                                       A - B
1996  ESTIMATED
   EMISSIONS
(ANTHROPOGENIC)
 6,450 LB/DAY
                                 C - D
TARGET LEVEL
  FOR 1996
5,800-1,800=
4,000 LB/DAY
multiply
by 0.1S
                                                            B
  EMISSIONS
  REDUCTION
 REQUIRED  BY
     1996
0.15(5,300)=
 795  LB/DAY
                               TOTAL
                             EXPECTED
                            REDUCTIONS
                              BY 1996
                           1,800  LB/DAY
                                                                           ADD
                          REDUCTIONS  NEEDS BY
                            1996 TO ACHIEVE
                           15 PERCENT NET OF
                                 GROWTH
                              2,450 LB/DAY
                                                           REDUCTIONS FROM:
                                                        FMVCP/RVP (500 LB/DAY)
                                                   RACT RULE CORRECTIONS (305 LB/DAY)
                                                      I/M CORRECTIONS (200 LB/DAY)
  * DOES NOT INCLUDE PRE-ENACTMENT BANKED EMISSIONS CREDITS
             Figure  F-l.   Flowchart for  example  rate-of-progress  calculations.

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nonattainment areas during the peak ozone season.  Three  steps
are followed in calculating the 1990 adjusted base year
inventory.

     Step 1.  Develop the 1990 base year inventory:  the  total
1990 base year emissions from the four emissions source types
(point, area, mobile, and biogenic) are compiled;

     Step 2.  Develop the 1990 rate-of-progress base year
inventory for nonattainment area:  biogenic source emissions and
other emissions from sources located outside the nonattainment
area, but included in step 1, are removed from the 1990 base year
inventory; and

     Step 3.  Develop adjusted base year inventory:  remove the
expected emissions reductions from the FMVCP and RVP programs
from the 1990 rate-of-progress base year inventory.

     Additional information on these three steps is available in
an EPA document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year
Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate-
of-Progress Plans. (See reference 42).  Employing the same
hypothetical emissions estimates from that document,  the adjusted
base year inventory in this example is expected to equal
5,300 Ib/day of VOC emissions.

Calculation of the 1996 Target Level of Emissions

     Steps 4 through 6 are used to calculate the 1996 target
level of emissions for planning purposes (additional information
on these steps is also available in the aforementioned EPA
guidance document).

     Step 4.   Calculate required (15 percent)  creditable
reductions:  15 percent = 5,300 x 0.15 = 795 Ib/day of VOC.

     Step 5.   Calculate total expected reductions by 1996:
this step involves summing the emissions reductions that are
creditable toward the 15 percent requirement (calculated in Step
4) and the total emissions reductions from programs that are
required, but are not creditable toward the 15  percent
requirement (i.e., RACT rule and I/M program corrections,  pre-
CAAA FMVCP, and. Federal RVP regulations) .   The  estimated total
expected reductions are assumed to equal 1,800  Ib/day of VOC.
The 1996 target level of emissions is then calculated by
subtracting the total expected reductions by 1996 from the 1990
rate-of-progress base year inventory.
                               F-3

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     Step 6.   Set target level for 1996:

          Target Level   =    Step 2 - Step 5
                              1990 Rate-of-Progress Base Year
                              Inventory For Nonattainment Area -
                              Total Reductions
                              5,800 Ib/day - 1,800 Ib/day
                              4,000 Ib/day

     The next major step involved in calculating the extent of
the necessary emissions controls for meeting the 15 percent rate-
of-progress requirement is to project emissions growth.

Calculation of Total Emissions Reductions Needed by 1996

     Step 7.  Project emissions growth for the 1990-1996 period:

          1990-1996 Projected Emissions Growth (Ib/day)

              Point Sources
              Area Sources
              Mobile Sources
                                     Total

     The expected emissions growth between 1990 and 1996 is
estimated using the 1990 rate-of-progress base year inventory for
the nonattainment area and the methods outlined in an EPA
document entitled Procedures for Preparing Emissions Projections.
(See reference 43.)  Section 6 of this document provides detailed
guidance on the procedures for projecting VOC emissions.  States
must be sure to include the amount of preenactment banked
emissions reduction credits that they plan to use during the
1990-1996 period in these projections.  The use of such credits
in the post-CAAA period must be considered emissions growth.  For
example, assume a State expects to use 50 Ib/day of its
preenactment banked emissions reduction credits to offset major
source growth during the  1990-1996 period.  Furthermore, the
State expects an additional 50 Ib/day of nonmajor point source
growth that will not be offset with preenactment banked credits.'
Therefore, the State should incorporate a total of 100- Ib/day of
point source growth for this nonattainment area.  After
aggregating the emissions from each source, it is estimated that
the hypothetical example nonattainment area will see increases in
VOC emissions of 250 Ib/day for area sources and 300 Ib/day for
mobile sources, in addition to the 100 Ib/day for point sources.
                               F-4

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     Step 8.   Add emissions growth to other required reductions
for planning purposes  (includes offsetting emissions growth):

    Required Additional Controlled Emissions in 1996 (Ib/day)


         Required 15 percent                         795
         Expected Reductions from FMVCP  and RVP
         (1990-1996)                                  500
         Corrections to RACT Rules
         (noncreditable)                              305
         Corrections to I/M Program
         (noncreditable)                              200
         Anticipated emissions  growth  (1990-
         1996)  based on projections
                                          Total

     Once the 1996 target emissions level and projected emissions
growth are calculated, States must develop a control strategy
that meets the target while offsetting the projected growth.  The
control strategy must take into account the required emissions
reductions (15 percent), the noncreditable emissions reductions,
and the growth projected to occur between 1990 and 1996 (i.e.,
650 Ib/day of VOC) .  The total 1996 VOC emissions reductions for
the hypothetical nonattainment area are 2,450 Ib/day.

Development Of Control Strategies

Moderate Nonattainment Area Requirements

     Under section 182(b) of the Act,  moderate ozone
nonattainment areas are required to implement the following
measures to control VOC emissions:

     •    RACT rule fix-ups.

          RACT catch-ups with a major stationary source emissions
          size cut-off of 100 tpy.

     •    Corrections to I/M programs if they were implemented
          before enactment of the CAAA and did not comply with
          EPA's basic I/M program requirements, or,
          implementation of a basic I/M program if the
          nonattainment area had not implemented an I/M program
          prior to enactment of the CAAA.

          Stage II vapor recovery.

          Emissions offsets for new sources [emissions  reductions
          from existing stationary sources offsetting the
          emissions increases from new major stationary sources


                               F-5

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          (100 tpy-or greater)  or major modifications to major
          stationary sources by a ratio of 1.15:1].

     Emissions reductions associated with RACT fix-ups and
corrections to I/M programs implemented prior to enactment of the
CAAA are not creditable toward the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction requirements.  Emissions reductions associated with
RACT catch-ups, Stage II vapor recovery programs, and basic I/M
programs implemented after enactment of the CAAA are creditable
toward the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements to the
extent that they are implemented by 1996 and represent emissions
reductions that are real, permanent, and enforceable.

     Due to the uncertainty inherent in projecting new source
growth, and in determining the amount of the emissions reductions
from offsets that will be needed to offset minor source growth,
EPA is taking a conservative approach to the crediting of
emissions reductions from offsets in the rate-of-progress plan.
While emissions reductions associated with RACT rule catch-ups,
RACT- rules based on any new CTG or ACT document, and Stage II
vapor recovery required for moderate and above areas are
creditable reductions in the 15 percent rate-of-progress plan,
emissions offsets  are not creditable in the plan.  However, any
additional, actual, permanent, and enforceable emissions
reductions resulting after 1990 from an offset that are not used
to offset minor source growth will be creditable in the milestone
compliance demonstration due in February 1997 for serious and
above areas.  The  issues related to the interaction of emissions
offsets and the 15 percent requirement will be discussed more
fully in an EPA document entitled Guidance on the Relationship
Between the 15 Percent Rate-of-Proaress Plans and Other
Provisions of the  Clean Air Act.  This document will be released
in the spring of 1993.

     It is important to note that although moderate and above
nonattainment areas are required to provide a rate-of-progress
plan describing how a  15 percent VOC emissions reduction, net of
growth, will be achieved by November 1996, moderate areas are not
required to show that  they have met the 15 percent requirement in
a milestone compliance demonstration due by February T5, 1993,
because the 15 percent milestone date falls on the attainment
date for moderate  areas  (November 15, 1996).  Instead, they are
required to show that  they have attained the ozone. NAAQS by
November 15,  1996.

     Moderate  areas must, therefore, plan for and implement a
control strategy that  will result in attainment.  If, for
example, modeling  for  the attainment demonstration shows that an
18 percent VOC emissions reduction will be necessary for a
moderate area  to attain the ozone NAAQS by 1996, then the State
should adopt control measures in its rate-of-progress plan that
will achieve an  18 percent reduction.  The State would need to

                               F-6

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track the post-implement at ion. emissions against the modeled
attainment percentage rather than the 15 percent rate-of-progress
requirement.

     States must be aware that the assessment of whether an area
has met the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements, net
of growth, in 1996 will be based on whether an area is at or
below its 1996 target level of emissions, and not whether the
area has achieved a particular actual emissions reduction
relative to having maintained the control strategy.

Serious Nonattainment Area Requirements

     Under section 182(c) of the Act, serious nonattainment areas
are subject to the control measures required for moderate areas
(except for emissions offset requirements)  as well as the
following additional control measures:

     •    Enhanced I/M program.

     •    Enhanced emissions monitoring.

     •    A major stationary source emissions cut-off for RACT of
          50 tpy.

     •    Clean-fuel vehicle program in areas with a population
          greater than or equal to 250,000.

     •    Emissions offset of 1.2:1.

     Emissions reductions- associated with the first four control
measures are creditable toward the 15 percent VOC emissions
reduction requirements to the extent that they are implemented by
1996 and represent emissions reductions that are real/ permanent,
and enforceable.  As discussed previously,  EPA will not allow
States to take credit in the 15 percent rate-of-progress plan for
projected emissions reductions resulting from emissions offsets.
Any additional,  actual, permanent, and enforceable emissions
reductions resulting after 1990 from an offset that is not used
to offset minor source growth will be creditable in the milestone
compliance demonstration required for serious areas in 1997.

     In addition, the Federally implemented program for
reformulated, gasoline is required in the nine serious areas with
the highest ozone design values during the 1987-1989 period and
populations over 250,000 (assume that this hypothetical
nonattainment area does not meet these criteria).   Emissions
reductions from the use of reformulated gasoline are also
creditable toward the 15 percent requirements.  The clean-fuel
vehicle program is not expected to be implemented until 1998,  and
therefore, no creditable emissions reductions (by 1996)  are
projected for this program.

                               F-7

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Nonattainment Area Examples

     This section provides hypothetical examples of five
nonattainment areas to illustrate how control strategies can be
developed to achieve emissions reductions that are creditable
toward meeting the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
requirements, net of growth.  The nonattainment area examples are
as follows:

          A nonattainment that existed prior to enactment of the
          CAAA that was classified as a moderate nonattainment
          area upon enactment of the CAAA, without changes to its
          nonattainment boundaries.

     •    A nonattainment area that existed prior to enactment of
          the CAAA that was classified as a moderate
          nonattainment area upon enactment of the CAAA, with
          changes to its nonattainment boundaries that added new
          portions to the nonattainment area.

          An attainment area that existed prior to enactment of
          the CAAA that was classified as a moderate
          nonattainment area upon enactment of the CAAA.

          A nonattainment area that existed prior to enactment of
          the CAAA that was classified as a multi-State
          nonattainment area upon enactment of the CAAA.

          A nonattainment area that existed prior to enactment of
          the CAAA that was classified as a serious nonattainment
          area upon enactment of the CAAA, with its major
          stationary source emissions cut-off lowered from
          100 tpy to 50 tpy.

     The first three examples are presented to illustrate
differences in how a moderate nonattainment area would develop
its control strategy depending on whether it was classified as a
nonattainment or an attainment area prior to enactment of the
CAAA, or whether its boundaries changed when it was classified as
a moderate area.  The fourth example is presented to illustrate
procedures that a multi-State nonattainment area must follow when
developing its control strategy.  The fifth example presents a
hypothetical serious nonattainment area to highlight the
additional controls required for serious nonattainment areas.
States must include contingency measures in their rate-of-
progress plans.  Therefore, contingency measures are also
discussed for each example.

     For Example 1, the emissions inventory and emissions
reduction values presented at the beginning of this appendix  (and
summarized in Figure 1) are used to illustrate suggested formats
for reporting control measures, implementation dates for control

                               F-8

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measures, and associated emissions reductions in a rate-of-
progress plan.  A separate emissions inventory and emissions
reduction values are presented under Example 5 for a serious
nonattainment area to illustrate suggested -reporting formats.
Blank forms for the suggested reporting formats are provided at
the end of this appendix.  Although not required to do so, States
are encouraged to copy and use these forms to report the
requisite data in their rate-of-progress plans.

     Note that these examples are only illustrative of the
process and format to be followed and are definitely not intended
to reflect relative reductions to be obtained from the listed
control measures.

Example 1 :     Moderate Nonattainment Area without Boundary
               Changes

     For this example, it is assumed that the nonattainment area
existed prior to enactment of the CAAA and was classified as a
moderate nonattainment area upon enactment of the CAAA.   Its
boundaries before and after enactment of the CAAA did not change.
It is assumed that prior to enactment of the CAAA,  the
nonattainment area was required to have RACT rules for the Group
I and II CTG source categories, but was not required (and did not
previously choose) to have RACT rules for the Group III  CTG
source categories or for major non-CTG stationary sources.   It is
also assumed that the nonattainment area had implemented an I/M
program before enactment of the CAAA,  However, its RACT rules
and I/M program contain deficiencies which must be corrected to
comply with EPA policies and regulations.

     The area would be required to prepare RACT rule fix-ups for
the Group I and II CTG source categories and corrections to its
I/M program.  In addition, the area would be required to adopt
RACT rule catch-ups for the Group III CTG source categories and
RACT rules for major non-CTG stationary sources because  it  had
not adopted. RACT rules for zhe Group III CTG source categories
and major non-CTG stationary sources prior to enactment  of  the
CAAA.  The area would also be required to implement a Stage II
vapor recovery program.  Because there are no boundary changes to
the ncnattainment area, there vculd be r.c requirement fcr the

rr.is


-------
     Implementation of the RACT rule catch-ups is expected to
result in creditable emissions reductions of 300 Ib/day.  The
MOBILES. 0 model projects that the implementation of Stage II
controls will generate emissions reductions' of 250 Ib/day in
1996.  Total creditable emissions reductions associated with
implementation of these two programs would be 550 Ib/day.

     The document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year
Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate-
of-Procrress Plans  (see reference 44) , discusses the particular
issues and methods related to calculating the expected
noncreditable emissions reductions from FMVCP, RVP, I/M program
corrections, and RACT rule fix-ups.  For this example, total
noncreditable emissions reductions are estimated to be
1,005 Ib/day.  Total creditable and noncreditable emissions
reductions are estimated to be 1/555 Ib/day.  Because this
nonattainment area needs to achieve a total of 2,450 Ib/day of
VOC emissions reductions to meet the 15 percent requirements, net
of growth, additional controls equaling at least 895 Ib/day of
VOC emissions reductions will need to be developed and adopted by
the State.

     For this example, it is assumed that additional mobile
source controls will achieve the creditable emissions reductions
(at the least cost) necessary to meet the 15 percent
requirements, net of growth.  The following are three mobile
source controls that will be adopted in January 1995 to achieve
the additional 895 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions needed for
this - nonattainment area:

          A basic I/M program in areas that surround the
          nonattainment area that will result in emissions
          reductions in the nonattainment area.

          A lowering of the permissible maximum RVP value to
          7.8 psi  (assume that an RVP of 9.0 psi is required for
          this area) .

          An- enhanced I/M program that includes pressure testing
          of vehicles' evaporative systems.

        asic -_/M program will be imposed in areas adjacent  to  ~-
        nment area  to control emissions from vehicles that
           c the ncr.attainment area.  States should rely
           n traffic counts  tc verify the commuter traffic
        u.on for the nonattainment area.  Data for this
        nr.ent area  shew that more than one-third of all hich—av
        sions released z_n  the ncnactainment area resvzl" fro~

        n o~ I. :•: program boundaries ^s projected tc reduce  VCC
        .= by 265 Ib/day in 1996.  The MC3ILS5.0 model

-------
emissions by 400 Ib/day.  in order to achieve the additional
230 Ib/day of required VOC emissions reductions, the State
decides to implement an enhanced I/M program beginning January of
1995.  The particular enhanced I/M program .to be adopted includes
pressure testing of the evaporative system on 1971 and newer
vehicles.  This is a program component that goes beyond the basic
I/M requirements (note that a basic I/M program is required for
moderate areas, enhanced I/M is required for serious and above
nonattainment areas).  The MOBILES.0 model projects that
additional VOC reductions of 235 Ib/day will result in 1996 from
the enhanced I/M program.  These non-CAAA mandated controls
result in an additional VOC emissions reduction of 900 Ib/day,
which is 5 Ib/day more than the additional 895 .Ib/day of VOC
emissions reduction required to meet the 1996 target level of
emissions.

     Table F-1 presents a suggested format for the presentation
of the 15 percent rate-of-progress control strategy.  When the
1 ,555 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions from the CAAA. mandated
controls are added to the projected emissions reductions for the
controls not specifically mandated by the CAAA, total reductions
of 2,455 Ib/day are expected in 1996, 5 Ib/day more than required
(see Step 8).  Similarly, Table F-2 presents EPA's suggested
format for documenting the control measures to be used in an
attainment demonstration for moderate nonattainment areas.   Note
that EKMA modeling for this hypothetical nonattainment area
demonstrates that 2,805 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions will
be needed for the nonattainment area to attain the ozone NAAQS by
1996.  This represents 350 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions in
addition to the 2,455 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions
associated with the control measures needed to meet the
15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements,  net of growth.
This nonattainment area decides that it will opt-in to the
Federal reformulated gasoline program and will implement a RE
improvement program to obtain the additional emissions
reductions.

     Table F-2 also contains a column for recording expected NOX
emissions reductions associated with control measures implemented
from November 1990 to November 1996.  This hypothetical example
does not present examples of NOX control  measures  and associated
emissions reductions for the attainment demonstration.   However,
it is expected that nonattainment areas will rely on some amount
of NOX emissions reductions  in addition to  VOC  emissions
reductions to achieve attainment with the NAAQS.   Therefore,
States with moderate ozone nonattainment areas should report 3he
NOX control measures,  the implementation  date of  the  control
measures, and associated NOX emissions  reductions  in  their  rate-
of -progress plans.
                               F-11

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  TABLE F-1
SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR 15  PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS
 CONTROL  STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL
Required  15 percent measures:
Measures  to offset growth:
Noncreditable measures:
                                   795 Ib/day
                                   650 Ib/day
                                  1,005 Ib/day
 Total  reductions required:
                                  2,4DO ID/day
Expected
Emissions
Control Creditable/ Expected Reduction
Measure13 Noncreditable Implementation Date (Ib/day)
STATIONARY SOURCE
RACT fix-ups
RACT catch-ups
for Group III
CTG and major
non-CTG sources
CONTROLS :
Noncreditable
Creditable14
January 1 , 1 993
January 1 , 1995
TOTAL STATIONARY
305
300
605
MOBILE SOURCE CONTROLS:
I/M fix-up
FMVCP and RVP
Stage II
I/M program in
adjacent
attainment
areas
RVP lowered
beyond Federal
mandate
(to 7.8)
Enhanced I/M
TOTAL MOBILE:
Noncreditable
Noncreditable
Creditable
Creditable
Creditable
Creditable

January 1 , 1992
June 1, 1992
July 1, 1994
January 1, 1995
January 1 , 1 995
January 1 , 1995

TOTAL
200
500
250
265
400
235
1,850
2,455
13Italicized controls are in addition to the CAAA requirements for
moderate nonattainment areas.

MNote that RACT catch-ups for Group III CTG and major non-CTG
stationary sources are creditable only where the area was never
previously required by EPA (and did not previously choose)  to adopt
RACT rules,for Group III CTG  and major non-CTG stationary sources.
                                 F-1 2

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          TABLE F-2:  SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR ATTAINMENT CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY  SOBMITTAL
              Reductions needed to achieve attainment  (VOC):
              Reductions needed to achieve attainment  (NOJ :
                                                                2,805 Ib/day
                                                                	 Ib/day
                 Measures
                                 Implementation
                                      Date
                     Expected VOC
                      Emissions
                      Reductions
                      (Ib/day)15
                 Expected NOX
                  Emissions
                 Reductions
                   (Ib/day)
      STATIONARY  SOURCES

               RACT fix-upS
      i
        CTG/non-CTG RACT catch-ups

      Rule effectiveness  improvements

      TOTAL STATIONARY
                                January 1,  1993
                                January 1,  1995
                                January 1,  1995
                          305
                          300
                          100
                          705
i

U)
MOBILE SOURCES:
           I/M fix-up

         FMVCP and RVP
            Stage  II

    I/M program in adjacent
        attainment areas
   RVP lowered beyond  Federal
        mandate  (to 7.8)
          Enhanced I/M

 Reformulated gasoline (opt-in)

TOTAL MOBILE
January 1,  1992
  June 1, 1992
  July 1, 1994
 January  1,  1995

 January  1 ,  1995

 January  1 ,  1995
 January  1,  1996
 200
 500
 250
 265

 400

 235
 250
2,100
      TOTAL
                                                         2,805
     15The VOC emissions reductions shown in this column are those associated with the control
     measures  implemented  in the nonattainment area.  If the nonattainment  area's  modeling
     domain  is  larger  than  its nonattainment area, the VOC  emissions reductions  may be higher
     if  the  control measures affect sources that  are located in the modeling domain outside of
     the  nonatt:ainmenl:  area.

-------
     States must include contingency measures in their rate-of-
progress plan's that will achieve emissions reductions equivalent
to 3 percent per year, calculated from the 1990 adjusted base
year inventory-  Table F-3 presents a suggested format fqr the
State's contingency measure submittal.  This submittal must
identify both the absolute and the percentage (i.e./ the
percentage reduction from the 1990 adjusted base year inventory)
emissions reduction projected for each contingency measure, as
well as the order in which the contingency measures would be
implemented upon a milestone or attainment failure.  The total
percentage of emissions reduction that a nonattainment area must
plan for depends on the expected length of their SIP revision
process.  In the hypothetical example presented in Table F-3, it
is assumed that the State requires 2 years to complete the
legislative process and submit a SIP revision.  Therefore,
contingency measures summing to at least 6 percent of the 1990
adjusted base year inventory are required as part of the
contingency measure submittal for this nonattainment area.
Section 9 of this document provides further discussion of the
contingency measure requirements for each ozone nonattainment
area classification.

     Table F-4 presents a suggested format for States to use in
summarizing emissions reductions for the 15 percent requirements
and the attainment demonstration in their rate-of-progress plans.
The first two columns in Table F-4 summarize both the total 1996
precontrolled emissions for VOC and NOX (i.e.,  the 1990 base year
inventory for VOC and NOX projected out to 1996)  as well as the
total VOC emissions reductions in 1996 for the attainment
demonstration.  The last column in Table F-4 represents the
proportion of the total VOC emissions associated with achieving
the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction requirements, net of
growth.  For example, the value in the 1996 emissions  (pre-new
controls) cell represents the 1990 rate-of-progress base year
inventory projected out to 1996.  Similarly, the value in the
1996 total emissions reductions cell  (2,455 Ib/day) represents
the proportion of the total VOC emissions reductions for the
nonattainment area applied to the 15 percent rate-of-progress
requirement  (see Step 8).  Finally, Tables F-5, F-6, and F-7
present suggested formats for documenting RE improvements,
stationary source control measures for the rate-of-progress plan,
and stationary source control measures for the attainment
demonstration, respectively.

Example 2:     Existing Nonattainment Area with Newly Designated
               Portions

     For this example, it is assumed that the nonattainment area
existed prior to enactment of the CAAA and was classified as a
moderate nonattainment. area upon enactment of the CAAA.  When it
was classified as a moderate area, its nonattainment boundaries
were expanded to include new areas which were not previously

                               F-14

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                  TABLE F-3:  SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL
                         1990 adjusted base year inventory:    5.300 Ib/day
       IMPLEMENTATION
           ORDER
   DESCRIPTION OF  CONTROL MEASURE
EXPECTED VOC
 EMISSIONS
 REDUCTIONS
  (Ib/day)
  EMISSIONS
REDUCTION AS
A PERCENTAGE
 OF THE 1990
VOC ADJUSTED
  BASE YEAR
  INVENTORY
I
en
             1
 High  occupancy vehicle  lanes  (TCM)
Major stationary source emissions
  threshold  for RACT  lowered  to  50
                tpy
       Reformulated gasoline
     15
                                                                    125
                                                                   200
                                      TOTAL
                                             340
    0.28
                      2.36
                      3.77
                      6.41

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  TABLE F-4:  SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE 15  PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS PLAN AND
                               THE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION
YEAR/TYPE
1996 Emissions (pre-new controls)
1996 Total emissions reductions
1996 Post-controlled emissions
TOTAL VOC
EMISSIONS
(Ib/day)
13,00016
2,80519
10,195
TOTAL NOX
EMISSIONS
(Ib/day)
: 	 17
	 17
	 17
VOC EMISSIONS FOR
THE 15 PERCENT
REQUIREMENT
(Ib/day)
6,45018
2,45520
3,995
1^Total  emissions in  1996 for  the attainment demonstration modeling  domain.

17Appropriate emissions values would be inserted here  to account  for the  effects of
growth,  and the effects of emissions reductions associated with NOX RACT rules and other
control measures.   They were omitted from this table because they did not contribute to
the purpose of this illustration.

18Total  emissions in  1996 for  the nonattainment area excluding biogenic emissions and
emissions from anthropogenic sources located in the modeling domain outside of  the  •
nonattainment area.

19Total  emissions reductions in 1996 for the attainment demonstration modeling domain.

20Total  emissions reductions to meet the 1996 target level of emissions,  including those
required to offset  growth.

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      TABLE F-5:   SUGGESTED FORMAT  FOR SOBMITTAL  OF RULE
            EFFECTIVENESS (RE) IMPROVEMENT MEASURES
RE
IMPROVEMENT
MEASURE




1990
RE
(percent)




NEW
RE
(percent)




IMPLEMENTATION
DATE



-
TOTAL :
EXPECTED
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(lb/day)





TABLE F-6:  SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF STATIONARY SOURCE
   CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE 15 PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS PLAN
CONTROL
MEASURE




IMPLEMENTATION
DATE




1990
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)




NEW
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)




TOTAL :
EXPECTED
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(lb/day)





TABLE F-7:  SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF STATIONARY SOURCE
       CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION
CONTROL
MEASURE




IMPLEMENTATION
DATE




1990
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)




NEW
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)




t • TOTAL:
EXPECTED
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(lb/day)





                             F-17

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classified as nonattainment.  For the original portion of the
nonattainment.area, it is assumed that prior to enactment of the
CAAA, the nonattainment area was required to have RACT rules for
the Group I and II CTG source categories but was not required
(and did not previously choose) to have RACT rules for the Group
III CTG source categories and for major non-CTG stationary
sources.  It is also assumed that the nonattainment area had
implemented an I/M program before enactment of the CAAA.
However, its RACT rules and I/M program contain deficiencies
which must be corrected to comply with EPA policies and
regulations.  For the newly designated portion of the
nonattainment area, it is assumed that the nonattainment area was
not required (and did not previously choose) to have RACT rules
or an I/M program.

     For the original portion of the nonattainment area, the area
would be required to prepare RACT rule fix-ups for the Group I
and II CTG source categories, and prepare corrections to its I/M
program to meet EPA's requirements for a basic I/M program.
Emissions reductions associated with RACT rule fix-ups and I/M
program corrections in the original nonattainment area are not
creditable toward the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
requirements.  However, the area would be required to implement
RACT rules for the Groups I and II CTG source categories and the
basic I/M program to the newly designated portion of the
nonattainment area.  Emissions reductions associated with the
RACT rules and basic I/M program in the newly designated portion
are creditable toward the 15 percent requirements.

     For the entire nonattainment area, the area would be
required to implement a Stage II vapor recovery program and RACT
rules for the Group III CTG source categories and for major non-
CTG stationary sources.  All VOC emissions reductions resulting
from implementing a Stage II vapor recovery program and the RACT
rules are creditable toward the 15 percent requirements.  If
implementation of these programs does not achieve the necessary
emissions reduction required for the nonattainment area to meet
either the 15 percent requirements or to achieve attainment of
the ozone NAAQS, the nonattainment area would have to adopt
additional control measures to achieve the necessary emissions
reductions.

     States have discretion in deciding on the additional control
measures to adopt for each particular nonattainment area.  For
example, a State may prefer a control measure other than the RVP
program described in Example 1 to achieve the necessary emissions
reductions.  For an attainment demonstration, a State may adopt
control measures to control NOX emissions if it relies on NOX
emissions reductions to demonstrate attainment.  Ultimately, the
control strategy for the nonattainment area must provide for a
15 percent VOC emissions reduction calculated from the adjusted
base^ year emissions inventory, offset emissions growth from

                               F-18

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November 1990 through November 1996, as well as achieve any
additional emissions reductions in VOC and/or NOX to demonstrate
attainment by November 15, 1996.  The State must also include
contingency measures in its rate-or-progress plan, and must  show
that the emissions reductions associated with each control
measure, are real, permanent, and enforceable.

Example 3:  Newly Designated Nonattainment Area

     For this example, it is assumed that an attainment area was
classified as a moderate nonattainment area upon the enactment of
the CAAA.  It is also assumed that the area never adopted (and
did not previously choose to adopt) RACT rules or an I/M program
prior to enactment of the CAAA.  Therefore, there would be no
noncreditable emissions reductions associated with RACT fix-ups
and I/M program corrections for the nonattainment area.

     The nonattainment area would be required to implement a
basic I/M program; a Stage II vapor recovery program; and RACT
rules for Groups I, II, and III CTG source categories and major
non-CTG stationary sources.  All VOC emissions reductions
associated with implementing a basic I/M program,  a Stage II
vapor recovery program, and RACT rules in the new nonattainment
area are creditable toward the 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
requirements.  If implementation of these programs does not
achieve the necessary emissions reduction required for the
nonattainment area to meet the 15 percent requirements or to
achieve attainment of the ozone NAAQS, the nonattainment area
would have to adopt additional control measures to achieve the
necessary emissions reductions.

     The new nonattainment area has discretion in deciding on the
additional control measures that it would adopt and implement to
achieve a 15 percent VOC emissions reduction,  offset emissions
growth from November 1990 through November 1996,  and demonstrate
attainment by November 15, 1996.  Fcr its attainment
demonstration, it may adopt control measures to control NOX
emissions if it relies on NOX emissions  reductions  to demonstrate
attainment.  The nonattainment area must include contingency
measures in its rate-of-progress plan, and must show that  the



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          Take all reasonable steps with all  other States in the
          multi-State nonattainment area to coordinate the
          implementation of the required revisions to SIP's for
          the nonattainment area.   Note, however/  that each State
          in the multi-State nonattainment area must include
          control measures in its  rate-of-progress plan to
          achieve a 15 percent VOC emissions  reduction,  net of
          growth, from its 1990 adjusted base year inventory.
           \
     •     Develop and submit to EPA, pursuant to section
          182(j) (1) (A) of the Act, a joint work plan which must
          include  (among other things)  a schedule for
          implementing control measures to achieve the 15 percent
          VOC emissions reduction  requirements, net of growth.

          Use photochemical grid modeling or  other equally
          effective analytical method approved by EPA to
          demonstrate attainment.   Multi-estate nonattainment
          areas will need to include their attainment
          demonstrations in their  post-1996 rate-of-progress
          plans, which must be submitted to EPA by
          November 15, 1994.

     Also, if one or more States within a multi-State ozone
nonattainment area fails to provide an attainment demonstration
for that State's portion of the area, the other State(s) are
allowed by section 182(j)(2) to petition EPA  to determine whether
they could have demonstrated attainment but for the failure of
the other State (s) in the area to  adequately  implement the
required control measures under section 182 for the given area.
If EPA finds that this scenario has taken place, then the
sanctions mandated under section 179 will not apply to any State
whose failure to make an adequate  attainment  demonstration was
due to failure by other States to  implement section 182 control
measures.

     Finally, additional requirements are imposed for multi-State
nonattainment areas designated as  part of an  ozone transport
region.  For example, enhanced I/M is required for all areas that
are located in an ozone transport  region that have a metropolitan
statistical area with population of 100,000 or more.  All ozone
transport region requirements are  listed in section 184 of the
Act and are discussed in the General Preamble for imolementation
of Title I of the CAAA of 1990  (57 FR 13498).

     It is imperative that all States within  a given multi-State
nonattainment area coordinate activities related to the
inventory, emissions projection, photochemical grid modeling, and
control strategy development processes.
                               F-20

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Example 5:     Serious Nonattainment Area with a Mai or Stationary
               Source Emissions Cut-off Lowered from 100 tpy  to
               50 tpy

     For this example, it is assumed that the nonattainment area
existed prior to enactment of the CAAA and was classified as  a
serious nonattainment area upon enactment of the CAAA.  Its
boundaries before and after enactment of the CAAA did not change.
However, section 182(c) of the Act lowered its major stationary
source emissions cut-off from 100 tpy to 50 tpy.

     The following steps show the calculation of the target level
of emissions and total emissions reductions for 1996 for the
serious nonattainment area's rate-of-progress plan.

Step 1:   Develop 1990 base year inventory
         ' (includes all emissions within the UAM modeling domain)

      Final 1990 Base Year VOC Emissions Inventory (Ib/day)

              Point  Sources                     1,100
              Area Sources                      3,000
              Mobile Sources                    4,500
              Biogenic Sources               +  4,000
                                     Total   12,600
Step 2:   Develop 1990 rate-of-progress base year for
          nonattainment area (NA)

        1990  Rate-of-Progress Base Year Inventory  (Ib/day)

         Point Sources (-100 from outside NA)       1,000
         Area Sources (-500 from outside NA)        2,500
         Mobile Sources  (-1,000 outside NA)       + 3,500
                                          Total    7,000


Step 3:  Develop adjusted base year inventory

            1990  Adjusted Base Year Inventory  (Ib/day)

  Point Sources                                           ~\,000
  Area Sources                                            2,500
  Mobile Sources
  (minus expected FMVCP and RVP reductions)                3,000
                                                Total     6, 500
                              F-21

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Step 4:  Calculate required (15 .percent) creditable reductions
                                            i
              15  percent  = 6,500 x 0.15 = 975  Ib/day

Step 5:  Calculate total reductions

Total Reductions from 1990 Rate-of-Progress Base Year Inventory
                             (Ib/day)

              Required 15 percent                975
              Expected Reductions from
              FMVCP and RVP (1990-1996)          500
              Corrections to RACT Rules           65
              Corrections to I/M Programs      +  1QQ
                                     Total     1,640

Step 6:  Set target level for 1996

Target level   = Step 2 - Step  5
                    = 1990 Rate-of-Progress Base Year Inventory
                      for Nonattainment Area  - Total Reductions
                    = 7,000 Ib/day - 1.640 Ib/day
                    = 5,360 Ib/day

Step 7:  Project emissions growth for  the 1990-1996 period

          1990-1996 Projected Emissions Growth (Ib/day)
              Point Sources                      200
              Area Sources                       300
              Mobile Sources                   + 900
                                     Total     1,400

Step 8:   Add emissions growth to other required reductions  for
          planning purposes  (includes offsetting emissions
          growth)

     Required Additional Emissions Reduction in 1996 (Ib/day)
       (1990--996}                                       =OC
       Corrections  re  ?JLCT Rules  (noncrecitable)          -55
       Corrections  zo  I/M Programs  (noncreditable)       *. OC
       Reduction  zc  cffser anticipated  emissions

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     The 1996 emissions reductions expected from the controls
required by section 182(c) of the Act are not projected  to result
in a 15 percent VOC emissions reduction, net of growth.  After
weighing all of its control options/ the State decides to
implement the following controls:

     •    A major stationary source emissions cut-off for RACT of
          25 tpy-

     •    Basic I/M program in areas surrounding the
          nonattainment area that will result in emissions
          reductions in the nonattainment area.

          Transportation control measures (specifically, improved
          public transit and high occupancy vehicle lanes).

     •    Reformulated gasoline.

     The VOC emissions reductions expected from each of these
control measures are presented in Table F-8.  Reductions of VOC
emissions totaling 2,485 Ib/day are projected from the CAAA
mandated controls; another 690 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions
are expected from control measures that are not specifically
mandated by the CAAA.  When the emissions reductions from both
the CAAA mandated and the discretionary controls are summed,
3,175 Ib/day of VOC emissions reductions are expected —
135 Ib/day more than are required (see Step 8).  Because serious
arid above ozone nonattainment areas will submit their attainment
demonstrations with the post-1996 rate-of-progress plan due by
November 15, 1994, these areas will not need to submit attainment
demonstration information with the 1 5 percent rate-of-progress
plan.  The EPA is currently developing guidance on the attainment
demonstration and other components of the post-1996 rate-of-
progress plan.

     Table F-9 provides the suggested format for the required
contingency measure submittal for this example nonattainment
area, which is also due with the 15 percent rate-of-progress
plan.  All ozone nonattainment areas must include contingency
measures in their plan that provide emissions reductions of
3 percent per year from their 1990 adjusted base year inventory.
The total amount of reductions to be included in the contingency
measure submittal depends on the expected length of the State's
SIP revision process.  For the example presented in Table F-9,  it
is assumed that the State will be able to revise its SIP within
1 year of a finding of" a  milestone failure; therefore,  the
contingency measures provide for a 3 percent emissions reduction
from the 1990 adjusted base year inventory.
                              F-23

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TABLE F-8:  SERIOUS NONATTAINMENT AREA EXAMPLE FOR 15 PERCENT RATE-OF-
              PROGRESS CONTROL STRATEGY  SUMMARY  SUBMITTAL
Required 15  percent measures:
Measures to  offset growth:
Noncreditable measures:	
Total  reductions required:
  975 Ib/day
1,400 Ib/day
  665 Ib/day
3,040 Ib/day
Expected
Emissions
Creditable/ Expected Reductions
Control Measure21 Noncreditable Implementation Date (Ib/day)
STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROLS:
RACT fix-up
Enhanced source monitoring
(RE)
RACT Catch-ups for Group
III CTG and major non-CTG
sources
Lowered RACT limit (to 25
tpy)
TOTAL STATIONARY
Noncr edi table
Creditable
Creditable22
Creditable

January 1 , 1993
January 1 , 1994
January 1 , 1995
January 1 , 1995

65
150
200
220
635
MOBILE SOURCE CONTROLS:
I/M fix-up
FMVCP and RVP
Stage II
Enhanced I/M
I/M program in adjacent
attainment areas
TCtf's:
(1) Improved public transit
(2) High occupancy vehicle
lanes
Reformulated gasoline
TOTAL MOBILE:
Noncreditable
Noncredi table
Creditable
Creditable
Creditable

Creditable
Creditable
Creditable

January 1 , 1992
June 1, 1992
July 1, 1994
January 1 , 1995
January 1 , 1995

January 1 , 1995
January 1 , 1996
January 1 , 1996

100
500
370
1,100
100
60
50
10
31
2,540
 TOTAL
^Italicized controls are  in  addition  to the CAAA requirements for
serious nonattainment areas.

:2Note  -hat RACT  catch-ups for  Group III CTG and major non-CTG
stationary sources are creditable only where the area was never
previously required by EPA (and did not previously choose)  to adopt
Group III CTG and major non-CTG RACT rules.

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                  TABLE F-9:  SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL
                         1990 adjusted base year inventory:    6,500  Ib/day
      IMPLEMENTATION
           ORDER
DESCRIPTION OF CONTROL MEASURE
EXPECTED VOC
 EMISSIONS
 REDUCTION
.  (Ib/day)
REDUCTION AS A
 PERCENTAGE OF
   1990 VOC
 ADJUSTED BASE
YEAR INVENTORY
I
to
ui
                         Major  stationary  source  emissions
                        threshold for RACT lowered to 15 tpy

                           Employer  trip reduction program
                                        TOTAL
                                          125
                                          100
                                          225
                    1.92
                    1.54
                    3.46

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15 PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL
 Required 15 percent measures:
 Required measures to offset growth:
 Noncreditable measures:
Ib/day
Ib/day
Ib/day
 Total reductions required:
-LD/aay
Expected
Expected Emissions
Control Creditable/ Implementation Reductions
Measure Noncreditable Date • (Ib/day)
STATIONARY SOU
TOTAL STATIONAJ
MOBILE SOURCE <
TOTAL MOBILE:
*CE CONTROLS:
RY
CONTROLS:



•

TOTAL






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                             CONTINGENCY MEASURE  SUBMITTAL
                      adjusted base year inventory:
                                             Ib/day
. HK.KMKIITATION
    OHDKK
DESCRIPTION OF CONTROL MEASURE
                              TOTAL
   EXPECTED VOC
EMISSIONS REDUCTION
      (Ib/day)
REDUCTIONS AS
 A PERCENTAGE
 OF 1990  VOC
ADJUSTED  BASE
YEAR INVENTORY

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               ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL
              Reductions needed to achieve attainment  (VOC):
              Reductions needed to achieve attainment '(NOX) :
                                          Ib/day
                                          Ib/day
            Measures
Implementation
     Date
ExpectedVOC
 Emissions
Reductions
  (Ib/day)
Expected NOX
 Emissions
 Reductions
  (Ib/day)
 STATIONARY SOURCES
TOTAL STATIONARY
MOBILE SOURCES:
TOTAL MOBILE
TOTAL

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     SUMMARY OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE 15 PERCENT RATE-OF-PROGRESS PLAN AND THE
                                 ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION
 YEAR/TYPE
TOTAL VOC
EMISSIONS
(Ib/day)23
TOTAL NOX
EMISSIONS
 (Ib/day)
VOC EMISSIONS FOR
  THE 15 PERCENT
   REQUIREMENT
     (Ib/day)
23This represents total emissions for the attainment demonstration modeling domain.

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RULE EFFECTIVENESS  (RE) IMPROVEMENT MEASURES
MEASURE








1990
RE
(percent)








NEW
RE
(percent)








IMPLEMENTATION
DATE








TOTAL:
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(lb/day)

,








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STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE 15 PERCENT RATE-OF-
                         PROGRESS PLAN
MEASURE










IMPLEMENTATION
DATE







__


1990
CONTROL
(percent)









•
NEW
CONTROL
(percent)










TOTAL :
EXPECTED
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(Ib/day)












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STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE ATTAINMENT
                    DEMONSTRATION      , .
MEASURE











IMPLEMENTATION
DATE









w

1990
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)











NEW CONTROL
EFFICIENCY
(percent)











TOTAL :
EXPECTED
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
(Ib/day)











-

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                     APPENDIX G:  CHECKLISTS


     The review questions in this checklist' are stated in  a way
such that an affirmative answer to a yes-or-no question requires
no further action or comment on behalf of the reviewer.  A
negative response does not necessarily invalidate the plan but
usually will require an explanation .by the State or,
occasionally/ will require a SIP revision.

     A separate document entitled, Quality Review Guidelines for
1990 Base Year Emission Inventories has been prepared to assist
in the development and review of the 1990 base year emissions
inventory.24

     These checklists are designed to assist States and also to
assist EPA in reviewing SIP's for completeness.  States should
not assume that these checklists are all-inclusive, however.

Reviewing Procedures

     This section describes the steps taken by State agencies"and
Regional Offices for the review of rate-of-progress plans.  The
completeness criteria established for SIP's (56 FR 42216,
August 26, 1991) and the time frames allotted for revisions to
the plans are outlined.  The basic requirements for SIP's can be
found in 40 CFR 51 Requirements for Preparation, Adoption, and
Submittal of Implementation Plans.  Technical requirements for
rate-of-progress plans are contained within this document.

State Agencies

     Plan Preparation.  State agencies have the responsibility of
compiling the rate-of-progress plan and to ensure that the plans
meet the minimum completeness criteria (40 CFR 51 ,  Appendix V) .
Once a plan has been adopted by a State,  five copies of the plan
shall be submitted by the Governor (or his/her designee)  to the
Regional Office of the EPA for review.

     Draft Plans.  A State may submit a draft copy of the rate-
of-progress plan to EPA for comments prior to the November 15,
1993 deadline.  The EPA will not consider submission of requests
for parallel processing of draft plans as official plans  in order
to meet statutory deadlines.  There is .currently a parallel
processing exception in the completeness criteria which permits
submittal of draft plans in order for EPA to expedite the review
24Qualitv Review  Guidelines  for  19^90 Base Year Emission
Inventories,  EPA-454/R-92-007 (Revises EPA-450/4-91-022),  U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Research Triangle Park,  NC.   August 1992.

                               G-1

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process.  The EPA interprets the Act as requiring rules that are
acceptable under the approval options of 110(k), however.

     The EPA is presently amending the completeness criteria to
remove the exception for parallel processing and to add an
exception for the submission of commitments as allowed under
110(k)(4).

Regional Offices

     Completeness Review.  The first step in the review process
for Regional Offices will be to determine if the rate-of-progress
plan meets the completeness criteria found in 40 CFR Part 51 ,
Appendix V.  The completeness criteria require that within
60 days of EPA's receipt of a plan or plan revision, but not
later than 6 months after the date by which a State was required
to submit the plan or plan revision, the EPA shall determine
whether the completeness criteria have been met.  If EPA has not
made a completeness determination by 6 months after receipt of
the submission, that submission shall on that date be considered
to meet the minimum completeness criteria.  The completeness
criteria require that EPA inform the submitting official by
letter if the plan meets the requirements of Appendix V.  If a
submittal is deemed incomplete, EPA shall return the submittal to
the State, requesting corrective action and identifying the
components absent or insufficient to perform a review.
                               G-2

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          ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY AND  1996 TARGET

1 .    Was the MOBILES. 0 model used to estimate the expected
     emissions reductions- from FMVCP and RVP?
     	Yes    No
     Comments:	
     Does the plan include information on how the MOBILES.0 model
     was run to calculate the expected emissions reductions from
     FMVCP and RVP?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments: 	
     Does the adjusted base year emissions inventory include only
     emissions emanating from within the designated nonattainment
     area boundaries?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments: 	.	
     Does the adjusted base year emissions inventory exclude
     noncreditable emissions reductions from FMVCP and RVP?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments:  	:	
5.    Is the required 15 percent VOC emissions reduction
     calculated from the adjusted base year emissions inventory?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments: 	
6.   Are the expected emissions reductions associated with RACT
     rule fix-ups quantified as discussed in the  guidance?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments:  	
7.   Are the expected emissions reductions  associated with I/M
     program corrections cruantified as discussed  in. the  Guidance'
     	Yes  	No
     Comments: 	
                               G-3

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8.   Are noncreditable emissions reductions from FMVCP,  RVP,  RACT
     rule fix-ups, and I/M program corrections' summed and
     subtracted from the 1990 rate-of-progress base year
     emissions inventory to calculate the 1996 target level of
     emissions?
     	Yes    No
     Comments:	—	
                               G-4

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             CONTROL MEASURES.AND CONTROL STRATEGIES

1 .    Does the plan describe  the  control measures to be
     implement ed?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
2.   Are all CAAA-required  control measures  included in the plan?

Stationary Source Controls:
     Marginal and above ozone nonattainraent  areas:

     a)   RACT rule fix.-ups  (for  those  areas with RACT rule
          deficiencies):                           	Yes       No

     b)   Major stationary  source emissions  threshold of
          100 tpy:                                 	Yes     	No

     c)   New source review offset ratio of  1.1  to 1 :
                                                   	Yes     	No

     Moderate and above ozone nonattainment  areas:

     a)   RACT rule catch-ups:                    	Yes     	No

     b)   Major stationary  source emissions  threshold of
          100 tpy:                                	Yes     	No

     c)   New source review offset ratio of  1.15  to  1:
                                                  	Yes       No

     Serious ozone nonattainment  areas:

     a)   Major stationary source emissions  threshold of 50 tpv:
                                                  	Yes     	f;o

     b)  .New source review offset ratio of  1.2 to 1:
                                                  	Yes     	NO

     Severe ozone nonattainment areas:

     =.,•   -'-5-3 or 3~5.tii.cnary scuzrcs -r~i.s3i.criS  ~h.r~esh.clc  cf 25 ~tr.~:
                                                     Yes      " ^~-

     b)   New source review offset ra;:io of  1.3 to ":

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     Extreme ozone nonattainment areas:
                                              i vjwr
     a)    Major stationary source emissions threshold of 10 tpy:
                                                  __Yes     	No

     b)    New source review offset ratio of 1.5 to 1:
                                                  	Yes     	No

     Ozone transport region:

     a)    Major stationary source emissions threshold of 50 tpy
          for VOC; 100 tpy for NOX:                	Yes     	No
     b)    New source review offset ratio of 1.15 to 1:
                                                  	Yes     	No

     c)    Additional requirements deemed by the transport
          commission as appropriate:              	Yes     	No
     Comments:
Mobile Source Controls
     Marginal and above ozone nonattainment areas:

     a)   I/M program corrections  (for those areas with I/M
          program deficiencies) :                  	Yes     	No

     b)   FMVCP and RVP program:
                                                  	Yes       No

     Moderate ozone nonattainment areas:

     a)   Basic I/M program:                      __Yes       No

     b)   Stage II vapor recovery program:        	Yes     	No


     Serious and above ozone nonattainment areas:

     a')   Stage II vapor recovery program:        	Yes     	No

     b)   Enhanced I/M program:-                   	Yes     	No

     c)   Clean fuel fleet vehicle program:       	Yes     	No

     d)   TCM's:                                  	Yes.     	No

     e)   VMT demonstration:                        Yes       No
                                G-6

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     Severe and above ozone nonattainment areas:

     a)    Measures to offset VMT growth:   .       	Yes     	NO

     b)    Submit employer trip reduction program:
                                                  	Yes     	No

     Ozone transport region:


     a)    Enhanced I/M program for any metropolitan statistical
          area with a population of 100,000 or more:
                                                  	Yes     	No

     b)    Adopt Stage II 'vapor recovery program or control
          measures identified as achieving equivalent reductions:
                                                  •  Yes       No
     Comments:
3.    Does the plan present a control strategy implementation
     schedule?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	


4.    Will all control measures that are specified in the rate-of-
     progress plan be implemented by 1996?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
5.   Is the implementation schedule consistent with the CAAA
     requirements?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  	
6.   Is the agency that will have enforcement authority specified
     for each control measure identified?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  	
                               G-7

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7.    Does the plan describe the methods used to calculate  the
     emissions reductions attributed to each control measure?   At
     a minimum, the methods should adhere to the four principles
     described in the General Preamble  (57 FR 13567) for
     documenting emissions reductions.  The four principles  are
     as follows:   (1) baseline emissions from the  source and the
     control measures must be quantifiable,  (2) control measures
     must be enforceable,  (3) interpretation of the control
     measures must be replicable, and  (4) control  measures must
     be accountable.  See the General Preamble for further
     discussion of these principles.
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: .    	.	
8.   Are all major  non-CTG  stationary  sources  identified?
     	Yes  	No
     Comments: _	
9.   Does  the plan include RACT rules  for  major  stationary VOC
     sources for which CTG documents are not  available?
     	Yes 	No
     Comments: 	
10.  Is  the  80 percent default RE value factored into the
     calculation of expected emissions  reductions associated with
     new control measures?
     	Yes      	No

     If  no,  are the RE values that  were used calculated using
     SPA-approved procedures?
     	Yes      	No
     Comments: 	
 11.  In estimating expected emissions reductions associated with
     new control measures,  is the compliance period factored into
     the calculation consistent  with EPA guidance?
      —3  ~ne —PA :~~u.i_c.2.ncs ~C-L_cwsc. i_n ca-LCu.-L2.tn.~c
      emissions reductions from RE improvements?
       Yes        ::c

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         15 PERCENT VOC EMISSIONS REDUCTION DEMONSTRATION

     Does the plan demonstrate that it will- achieve a 1 5 percent
     reduction in VOC emissions calculated from the 1990 adjusted
     base year emissions inventory?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
2.   Does the plan include a summary of projected VOC emissions
     levels for 1996?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  .	
3.   Is the EPA guidance followed in calculating projected
     emissions?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
4.   Does the control strategy contain the necessary control
     measures to achieve the 1996 target level, of emissions
     (i.e.,  does the overall control strategy provide for the
     required 15 percent VOC emissions reductions,  provide for
     the noncreditable emissions reductions,  and fully offset
     growth from November 1990 to November 1996)?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  	
5.   Does the State follow the rate-of-progress  plan guidance in
     showing how the 15 percent VOC emissions  reductions,  net of
     growth, will be achieved?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  	
     If a State plans to use preenactment  banked  emissions
     reduction credits in the 1990 to 1996 period,  are  the use of
     such banked emissions reduction credits  considered as growth
     in the rate-of-progress plan?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:	
                               G-9

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STATE IMPLEMENTATION  PLAN ATTAINMENT- DEMONSTRATION CHECKLIST FOR
                    MODERATE AREAS USING EKMA

1 .    Was an approved modeling protocol completed and delivered to
     EPA prior to use of the model?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 		
2.   Are attainment year emissions estimates projected from an
     EPA approved 1990 base year inventory?
     	Yes       No
     Comments: _	
3.   Were allowable emissions used as the basis for future year
     projections?
     	Yes       .No
     Comments: 	


4.   Is the MOBILES.0 model used for projecting mobile source
     emissions?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	;	
5.   Have all MOBILES.0 model inputs for the projection emissions
     inventory been incorporated?
   .  	Yes       No
     Comments: 	
6.   Have the following MOBILES.0 model inputs been considered:
Tailpipe and extended useful life standards
Evaporative /running loss controls
RVP limits
Stage II vapor recovery program
Reformulated gasoline program
Basic I/M program
Enhanced I/M program
Other measures (e.g., California's LEV
program)
Comment-?;:
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes


No
No
No
No
No
NO
No
NO



                               G-10

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7.    Was modeling used to estimate the level of control
     (including the level of control required to fully offset
     growth)  heeded to attain the NAAQS?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
8.   Were emissions data preprocessed in accordance with EPA
     guidelines specified in the document entitled Guideline for
     Use of Citv-Specific EKMA in Preparing Ozone SIP's?2b
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  _	
9.   Were the VOC/NOX ratios based on valid measurements
     conducted during 1987 to 1989?  If not/ what was used?
     	Yes       No
     Comments: 	
10.  Were aloft boundary conditions derived from regional oxidant
     modeling (ROM) in accordance with the document entitled
     Guideline for Using EKMA Interface?26  If not, how were
     aloft conditions derived?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments: 	
11 .   Was the default VOC speciation profile used?  If not,  what
     was the basis assumed for the VOC speciation profile?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:  	


12.   Was a modeling demonstration package prepared containing the
     required information as documented in EPA guidance?
     	Yes     	No
     Comments:	
"5Guidellne for Use of City-Specific 5KMA in Preparing Ozone
SIP's, EPA-450/4-80-027, U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle
Park, NC.  1980.

26Guideline for Using EKMA Interface. EPA-450/4-92-009, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of  Air Quality Plannina
and Standards,^Research Triangle Park,  NC.   May 1992.
                              G-1 1

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 MILESTONE AND ATTAINMENT FAILURE CONTINGENCY MEASURES
                                        \
Does the rate-of-progress plan include contingency measures
that will achieve an equivalent 3 percent per year VOC
emissions reduction in addition to the scheduled emissions
reductions?
	Yes     	No
Comments: 	
Will the contingency measures be automatically implemented
in the event of a milestone or attainment failure (i.e.,
does the plan ensure that contingency measures will be
implemented with no additional rulemaking actions such as
public hearings or legislative review by the State)?
	Yes     	No
Comments: 	'1	
Do the contingency measures meet the minimum requirements
for control measures set forth in the General Preamble
(57 FR 13511 and  13520)?
	Yes     	No
Comments: 	
                          G-12

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        APPENDIX H:  MILESTONE  AND ATTAINMENT FAILURES  FOR
         MARGINAL  AND MODERATE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS
     This appendix presents an overview of  the  implications of
milestone and attainment failures for marginal  and moderate ozone
nonattainment areas.   The discussion is a preliminary description
of the anticipated process following a finding  of milestone or
attainment failure.

Marginal Areas

     Figure H-1 provides an overview of the marginal area
attainment process.
                                         Yes
           Bump-up to higher
           classification
           Sec181(b)(2)(0or0i)
           Attainment Date based on
           new classification
Redesignation
Sec 107(d)(3)(E)
     Figure H-1.   Marginal area attainment process flowchart.

Marginal areas are required to attain the ozone NAAQS by November
15, 1993, unless  they apply for and receive at least one of the
two available 1-year  attainment date extensions under section
181(a)(5).  Marginal  areas  are exempt from the milestone
demonstrations [section 182(g) (1)],. and consequentl-y will  not be
subject to any milestone failure requirements.  Under section
181(b)(2), marginal areas that fail to attain the ozone NAAQS by
their attainment  date (or,  if applicable., extended, attainment
date) will be bumped-up to  a higher classification.

Moderate Areas

     Figure H-2 provides an overview of the moderate area
attainment process.
                                H-1

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            Attainment Date 1996
                                         Yes
                No
                          Attainment Date
                          1997
                                         Yes
                No
                                        Attainment Date
                                        1998
            Bump-up to higher classification
            Sec181(b)(2)0)or(ii)
            Attainment Date based on
            new classification, and
            Implement Contingency Measures
            ofSec172(cK9)
    Yes
                                             No
Redesignation
Sec 107(d)(3)(E)
     Figure H-2.  Moderate area attainment process  flowchart.

Moderate areas are required to attain  the ozone NAAQS by
November 15,  1996,  unless they apply for and receive at least  one
of the two  available 1-year attainment date extensions under
section 181(a)(5).   Moderate areas are exempt from the milestone
demonstrations [section 182(g)(1)]/ and  consequently will not  be
subject to  any milestone failure requirements.

     As with  marginal areas, section 181(b)(2)  specifies that
moderate areas that fail to attain the ozone NAAQS by their
attainment  date (or, if applicable, extended attainment date)
will be bumped-up to a higher classification.  In addition,
moderate areas must implement the contingency measures contained
in their SIP  as required by section 172(c)(9).

Bump-up Requirements

     The EPA  classifies nonattainment  areas for ozone based on
the area's  calculated design value.  These classifications range
from marginal to extreme, depending on the severity of
nonattainment.   The CAAA specify the dates by which each area
with a particular nonattainment classification must atrain the
ozone NAAQS.   Within 6 months after the  applicable attainment
date, the SPA must determine whether an  area has succeeded in
achieving the required standard.  This "attainment determination"
will employ the most recent air quality  data that has been
subject to  quality assurance review, covering the preceding
2 years including the attainment date.   In the case of ozone,  the
average number of ozone exceedances per  year, after adjustment
for missing data,  shall be used to determine whether an area has
attained the  ozone NAAQS.
                                H-2

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     Under section T81 (a) (5) of the Act, a State may apply for a
1-year extension of a nonattainment area's attainment date;  up to
two 1-year extensions may be awarded.  This request can be
granted if the State has complied with all requirements and
commitments pertaining to the area in the applicable SIP,  and  no
more than one exceedance of the ozone NAAQS has occurred  in the
area in the year preceding the extension year.

     According to section 181(b)(2) of the Act, failure of a
marginal, moderate, or serious nonattainment area to attain the
NAAQS by the attainment date associated with its specific
classification will result in reclassification to the higher of
the following:

     •    The next higher classification for the area.

          The classification associated with the area's design
          value when EPA makes the determination that attainment
          was not achieved.

     This reclassification procedure does not apply to severe  and
extreme areas.  If a severe or extreme area fails to attain  the
ozone NAAQS by the applicable date, the area must implement
contingency measures required under 172(c)(9)  and individual
sources must pay the enforcement fees of section 185.

     "Bump-up" refers to the reclassification process that a
marginal, moderate, or serious area automatically undergoes if it
fails to attain the NAAQS.  The term bump-up also applies  to
optional reclassification of a serious or severe nonattainment
area as a result of milestone failure.  Serious and severe
nonattainment areas that fail to meet a milestone are required to
make an election, under section 182(g) (3) of the Act, from three
given measures.  One explicit option is reclassification of the
area to the next higher classification.

     Upon bump-up, the attainment date specified for the higher
classification applies to the area that has been bumped-up.
Section 182(i) of the Act allows for some flexibility in
establishing due dates for the required submittals associated
with the new classification, but does not allow EPA to adjust  the
attainment date.  Areas that are not expected to attain the ozone
NAAQS by their attainment date but wait until near their
attainment date to voluntarily bump-up,  will find it difficult to
meet the deadlines for their new classification.   An early-
voluntary bump-up will allow for more flexibility in planning  for
and achieving the new requirements of the higher classification.
Since failure to submit SIP revisions can result in sanctions or
Federal implementation plan (FIP)  -measures,  it will be in  the
best interest of States with nonattainment areas to attempt to
assess whether attainment is improbable as soon as possible.


                               H-3

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Marginal Areas

     Marginal areas must reach the prescribed NAAQS level for
ozone by November 15, 1993.  In the event that a marginal area
fails to attain the NAAQS by 1993, it will be bumped-up to the
moderate classification, or higher, depending on the area's air
quality data for the attainment year.  In addition to the
requirements prescribed for marginal areas, these areas will then
be expected to meet the additional requirements of the higher
classification.

     Marginal areas that are bumped-up to moderate nonattainment
status must correct existing RACT rules to make up for
deficiencies in their current plans.  Upon reclas'sification, RACT
must be applied, to all sources for which a CTG document has been
issued, and to all major non-CTG stationary sources.  Also, a
basic I/M program must be implemented, regardless of whether an
I/M program was in place to begin with  (per the pre-CAAA
enactment requirements).  The EPA's intention is to require such
areas to submit a SIP meeting the basic I/M requirements within
1 year of the reclassification.  Further guidance will be issued
by EPA in the summer of 1993 to address required elements to be
included in this SIP revision.

     If a marginal area is bumped-up to" moderate nonattainment
status, planning and rule development schedules can be revised,
although the moderate area attainment date will apply to the
newly classified area.  Assuming none of the section 181(a)(5)
extensions are granted, bump-up to a moderate classification may
occur up to 6 months after attainment failure in November 1993;
this would allow only 2-^ years for a marginal area to meet all of
the requirements of the higher classification, including ozone
attainment by November 1996.27  If preliminary planning is  not
initiated early, the likelihood of successfully implementing the
necessary control measures within this time frame is small,
considering the fact that drafting the required submittals that
describe these  measures represents a significant effort.  If a
marginal area that is reclassified as moderate does not attain
the NAAQS by the moderate area attainment date of November 15,
1996  (likely if preliminary planning is not initiated)-, this once
marginal area would be reclassified as a serious area.  Given
this possibility, States with marginal areas  that are unlikely  co
attazn.  the MAAQS by November  15,  1993 are encouraged to begin a
planning strategy that will allow for quick enactment of
specified measures.
 27In the event that one or both of the section 181 (a) (5)
 extensions  are granted,  an even shorter  time  frame  would  be
 available  for a newly classified moderate area to plan for
 attainment  by November 1996.

                                H-4

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     One of the more important ramifications of a marginal  area
being bumped-up is that it will be subject to the 15 percent
rate-of-progress requirement, which requires the development of a
rate-of-progress plan.  In addition, a contingency plan must be
formulated, specifying additional measures to be taken
immediately upon an attainment failure.  Normally, these
submittals are due in November 1993 for moderate areas, but a
marginal area being reclassified will not be able to meet these
attainment deadlines. -The EPA may establish separate plan and
implementation deadlines for a marginal area that fails to attain
and is reclassified as moderate.  By setting deadlines, an area
may be more likely to achieve attainment and avoid further bump-
ups.  If the determination is made in June 1994 that a marginal
area will be bumped-up,  then the EPA may, for example, require
SIP revisions by June 1995, indicating measures to be implemented
in November 1995.  Again, it should be stressed that the earlier
a determination is made that an area is likely to miss its
attainment date and be reclassified, the better the chance the
area has of meeting the newly imposed deadlines.

     In addition, EPA may require States applying for attainment
date extensions to prove that a significant effort has been made
to initiate planning activities associated with the moderate
classification, and that control measures such as I/M and RACT
can be adopted and implemented quickly.  Also,  States may need  to
show that steps have been taken to obtain necessary emissions
data required for the modeling analysis in the attainment
demonstration.  These areas may also be required to submit their
air quality data on an accelerated time schedule,  to enable early
detection of the need to develop and implement necessary
measures, provided the extensions are not sufficient to ensure
attainment.

Moderate Areas

     In accordance with section 181(b)(2) of the Act,  if a
moderate area fails to demonstrate attainment by November 15,
1996, it will be reclassified to the serious classification, or
higher, depending on its design value by operation of law.   The
area will then be subject to the additional requirements of the
higher classification.

     If a moderate area is reclassified as a serious area,  both.
ambient air quality and emissions monitoring systems will need to
be upgraded- to meet the specifications outlined in section
182(c)(1).  Additional mobile source provisions must be
implemented,  including the enhanced I/M and clean fuel vehicle
programs.  The enhanced I/M program stipulates  a higher
performance standard, than the- basic I/M program,  and must take
the place of the existing basic I/M program.   The offset ratio
for sources subject to NSR increases,  and RACT applies to
stationary sources emitting 50 tpy or more of VOC or NOX.   In

                               H-5

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addition, the boundaries of a moderate area bumped-up to a
serious area must reflect the metropolitan statistical
area/consolidated metropolitan statistical area, unless EPA and
the State decide otherwise.

     A moderate nonattainment area reclassified as a serious area
will not be required to demonstrate the 15 percent reduction
(milestone compliance) in emissions between 1990 and 1996 as
section 182(g)(1) specifically excludes marginal and moderate
areas from the requirement.  Additionally, since the next
milestone falls on the serious area's attainment date  (if no
extension is granted), this former moderate area would also not
be required to demonstrate the 3 percent per year reductions
averaged over 3 years from 1996-1999.  It would need to attain
the ozone NAAQS by November 1999.  Revisions to SIP's out-lining
compliance with the requirements of the serious classification
will be due 1 year after reclassification.  Again, planning
should begin early if it seems likely that a moderate area will
be reclassified.

Nonclassifiable Areas

     Nonclassifiable ozone areas include transitional,
submarginal, and incomplete/no data areas.  Transitional areas
are defined as those areas that were designated nonattainment
both before and at the time of enactment, but were not in
violation of the primary NAAQS during the period 1987-1989.
Submarginal areas are divided into two categories:  Category 1
includes areas presently designated nonattainment that are
violating the ozone standard, and Category 2 includes areas
designated unclassified/attainment that are violating the NAAQS.
Incomplete/no data areas describe those regions designated
nonattainment at enactment, but without sufficient data to prove
a violation of the ozone standard.

     A SIP revision including RACT corrections, an emissions
inventory, NSR provisions, and monitoring requirements is
required for all nonclassifiable areas.  This SIP revision is due
3 years from the date that areas are designated nonclassifiable
areas, which section  107(d)(1)(C)(i) of the Act clarifies to mean
the date of enactment, thereby requiring submittal by
November 15, 1993.

     On June 30,  1992, an attainment determination will be made
for transitional areas based on the area's average number of
exceedances during the 3-year period from January 1, 1989 to
December 31, 1991.  In the event that attainment is achieved, the
area will be redesignated attainment, the ramifications of which
are described  in more detail in a July 9, 1992 memorandum from
John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, OAQPS.,
to Regional Air Division Directors, concerning "Processing of
State Implementation  Plan  (SIP) Submittals."  If it is determined

                               H-6

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that violations have occurred in the specified period, however,
it will be classified according to its design value, and will now
be newly subject to the requirements associated with the
appropriate nonattainment classification.  Tf the area's design
value is still below 0.121 ppm, the area will be considered
"submarginal."

     As with marginal areas, advanced planning should be carried
out for transitional areas in anticipation of a possible bump-up.
Again, while the dates set up for required SIP revisions can be
altered, the corresponding attainment date for the newly
reclassified area cannot be changed.

     Under section 172 (a)  (2), the attainment date for submarginal
and incomplete/no data areas, is specified as no later than
November 15, 1995.  Specific actions to be taken in the event of
attainment failure are still being decided by EPA,  but options
include mandatory bump-up to a higher classification,  or the
requirement of additional measures to ensure attainment.   In the
case of submarginal areas, a violation of the NAAQS and a design
value above 0.121  ppm will result in bump-up and classification
according to the area's design value.  All provisions apply to
the newly bumped-up area as if it had been so classified at the
time of enactment, yet adjustment of schedule deadlines is
permitted.  As with other reclassifications,  however,  the
corresponding attainment deadlines cannot be altered.
                               H-7

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H-8

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              APPENDIX I:  MODEL MULTI-STATE LETTER
                                        DATE
ADDRESS OF
REGIONAL AIR
DIVISION DIRECTOR

Dear Regional Air Division Director,

     This letter is being sent to fulfill the requirements
established in section 182(j) of the Clean Air Act, as amended
1990.  As you know, section 182(j') requires States in multi-State
ozone nonattainment areas to coordinate revisions and
implementation of State implementation plans  (SIP's) with other
States in the nonattainment area.  In addition, section  182 (j)
requires the States to use photochemical grid modeling or any
other equally effective analytical method approved by EPA for
demonstrating attainment.  Please consider this letter as
[State's name] formal notice of your efforts to ensure
appropriate coordination between the [number of States]  States
involved in this plan.  We expect that  [name other States in
nonattainment area] will prepare similar plans to complement  our
efforts.  Please realize, however, that while this letter
fulfills the statutory requirement to submit a work plan, most  of
the interstate coordination occurs on a person-to-person basis
between staff from the [number of States] States and the EPA
Regional Offices.

     For the  [State's name] portion of the nonattainment area,
our schedule to complete all the necessary portions the
attainment demonstration is listed below:


[list all plan elements up to 11/94]

Publish Public Notice for Hearing:      Date:
[list all plan elements up to 11/94]

[list all plan elenier.zs up tc i
•.-.•:. 11 ce c'ccrdinaied vi-h. [nane other States in r.cnattai-rr.ent

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prepare an attainment demonstration for this area.  This
coordination will occur through mailings and phone contacts with
each State.  Additionally, air directors and staff have the
opportunity to meet and discuss these issues face to face as they
arise through regular meetings of [name Regional Consortium e.g.,
NESCAUM, LADCO, Northeast Ozone Transport Commission].
[Reference modeling protocols required by the Technical Support
Division—also may want work on the development of emissions
inventories and coordination of somewhat consistent growth
factors.]

     Beyond this, we look to EPA [list appropriate Regional
Offices] to provide additional necessary coordination.  To this
end, the Regional Offices and States have already participated in
meetings and conference calls over the past year.  We expect to
participate in additional meetings and conference calls on the
ozone attainment demonstration as the need arises.

     If you or your staff have any questions, please feel free to
contact  [name State contact] at (000) 000-0000.

                                        Sincerely,
                                        DIRECTOR
                                        STATE AIR DIVISION
cc:   States  in nonafetainment area
      Appropriate Regional Offices
                               1-2

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 APPENDIX J:  ALTERNATIVE CONTROL TECHNIQUE  (ACT) DOCUMENTS,  NEW
 SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS  (NSPS), AND TWO SCAQMD AREA  SOURCE
       RULES FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN OXIDE. (NOX)  EMISSIONS


Status of and References for ACT Documents for Stationary  NOX
Sources

     The EPA has issued final ACT documents for controlling NOX
emissions from nitric and adipic acid manufacturing plants and
stationary gas turbines.  The references for these two documents
are as follows:

•    Alternative Control Technique Document — Nitric and  Adipic
     Acid Manufacturing Plants. EPA-450/3-91-026, U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency/ Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     December 1991.

•    Alternative Control Technique Document — NOy Emissions from
     Stationary Gas Turbines. EPA-453/R-93-007, U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     January 1993.

     A final ACT document for controlling NOX emissions from
process heaters is expected to be completed by January or
February of 1993.  The EPA completed a draft ACT document  for
stationary internal combustion engines in August 1992.  The final
ACT document for stationary internal combustion engines is
planned for release in the spring of 1993.  The EPA is also
preparing ACT documents for utility boilers; industrial,
commercial, and institutional boilers; cement manufacturing; iron
and steel production; and glass manufacturing.  Draft ACT
documents for these source cateaories are planned for release in
1993.

     The following EPA reports are not ACT documents,  but provide
information on NOX emissions sources,  controls,  and control
costs.

     Svaluation and Costing of N(X Controls  for Existing Utility
     Boilers in the NESCAUM Region. EPA 453/R-92-010,  U.S.
     Environmental Protection. Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning, and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
     December 1992.

     Evaluation and Costing of ISKX Controls  for Industrial,
     Commercial, & Institutional Boilers, draft, U.S.
     Environmental Protectipn Agency, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards) Research Triangle Park, NC.
     October 1992.  The document is expected to be finalized in  1993

                               J-1

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List of Promulgated NSPS for Stationary NOX Sources
                                               &
                                               i*  Reference:
Source Category                                40 CFR Part  60

Fossil-Fuel-Fired Steam Generators                Subpart D

Electric Utility Steam Generating Plants          Subpart Da

Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam         Subpart Db
  Generating Units

Small Industrial-Commercial-Institutional  Steam   Subpart DC
  Generating Units

Gas Turbines                                      Subpart GG

Municipal Waste Combustors                        Subpart Ea

Nitric Acid Plants                                Subpart G


     The references for the BID'S prepared to  support the
technical basis for the NSPS are as follows:

     Electric Utility Steam Generating Units:  Background
     Information for  Proposed  NOy Emission Standards, EPA/450/2-
     78/005a, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Air
     Quality Planning and Standards/  Research  Triangle  Park, NC.
     1978.

     Standards Support and Environmental Impact  Statement.
     Volume I:  Proposed Standards of Performance for Stationary
     Gas Turbines. EPA/450/2-77/017a, U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Emission Standard  and  Engineering
     Division, Research Triangle Park, NC.  1977.

     Standards Support and Environmental Impact  Statement.
     Volume II:  Promulgated Standards of  Performance for
     Stationary Gas Turbines.  EPA/450/2-77/017b, U.S.
     Environmental Protection  Agency, Emission Standard and
     Engineering Division, Research Triangle Park,  NC.   i977

     Municipal Waste  Combustors - Background Information  for
     Proposed Standards:  Control of  N(X Emissions,  Volume 4,
     EPA/450/3-89/27d, U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,
     Office of Air Quality Planning and  Standards,  Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  August 14,  1989.
                                J-2

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Municipal Waste Combustors - Background Information for
Promulgated Standards and Guidelines, Summary of Public
Comments and Responses, Appendix A to C.  EPA/450/3-89/004a/
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
December 1990.

Background Information for Proposed New Source Performance
Standards:  Steam Generators, Incinerators,  Portland Cement
Plants, Nitric Acid Plants, Sulfuric.Acid Plants,  No.  0711,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office.of Air
Programs, Research Triangle Park,  NC.  (No date available.)
                         J-3

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Rule 1121-Control of Nitrogen Oxides from Residential-Type
Natural Gas Fired Water Heaters

(a)  Definitions

For the purpose of this rule:

(1)  Water Heater is defined as a device that heats water at  a
     thermostatically controlled temperature for delivery on
     demand.

(2)  Heat Output is defined as the product obtained by
     multiplying the recovery efficiency, as defined by Title 20,
     California Administrative Code, Chapter 2, Subchapter  4,
     Article 4, Sections.1603 and 1807, by the heating value  of
     the input fuel furnished to the water heater.

(b)  Requirements

After December 31, 1982, a person shall not sell or offer for
sale within the South Coast Air Quality Management District:

(1)  Gas-fired stationary home water heaters that:

(A)  Emit nitrogen oxides in excess of 40 nanograms of NOX
      (calculated as NO2) per joule (70 Ib per billion BTU) of
     heat output.

(B)  Are not certified  in accordance with subparagraph .(c) .

(2)  Gas-fired mobile home water heaters that:

(A)  Emit nitrogen oxides in excess of 50- nanograms of NOX
      (calculated as NO2) per joule (88 Ib per billion BTU) of
     heat output.

(B)  Are not certified  in accordance with subparagraph  (c).

(c)  Certification

(1)  The manufacturer shall have each water heater model  tested
     in  accordance with the following:

(A)  Each tested water  heater shall be operated in accordance
     with Section 2.4 of American National Standards ANSI
     Z21.10.1-1975 at normal test pressure, input rates, and  with
     a five-foot exhaust stack installed during the nitrogen
     oxides emission  tests.
                                J-4

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(B)   The measurement of nitrogen oxides emissions shall be
     conducted in accordance with United States Environmental
     Protection Agency test methods or other test methods or
     other test methods approved by the executive officer.

     (2)   The following calculation shall be used to determine
          the nanograms of NOX per joule of heat output:

               N = (4.566 x 10 )  P U
                         H C E
          Where:

               N = nanograms of NOX emitted per  joule of  heat
                   output

               P = parts per million (volume)  NOX in flue gas

               U = volume percentage of C02 in water-free flue
                   gas for stoichiometric combustion.

               C= volume percentage CO2 in  water free flue gas

               H = gross heating value of gas, BTU/Cu.Ft. (60°F,
                   30 in. hg)

               E = recovery efficiency, percentage

     (3)   The manufacturer shall submit to the Executive  Officer
          the following:

          (A)   A statement that the model is in compliance with
               subparagraph (b).   The statement  shall be  signed
               and dated, and shall attest  to  the accuracy of all
               statements.

          (B)   General Information

               (i)     Name and address of manufacturer.

               (ii)    Brand name.

               (iii)   Model number,  as it appears on the  water
                      heater rating plane.

          (C)   Description of each model being certified.

(d)   Identification of Complying Water Heaters
     The manufacturer shall display the model  number of the water
     heater .complying with, subparagraph (b)  on the shipping-
     carton and rating plate.
                               J-5

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(e)   Enforcement

     (1)   The Executive Officer may require the emission test-
          results be provided when deemed necessary to verify
          compliance.

     (2)   The Executive Officer may periodically inspect
          distributors, retailers and installers of water
          heaters located in the District and conduct such
          tests as are deemed necessary to insure compliance
          with subparagraph (b).

(f)   Exemption

     The provisions of this rule shall not apply to:

     (1)   Water heaters with a rated heat input of 75,000 BTU
          per hour or greater.
     (2)   Water heaters used in recreation vehicles.
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Rule 1111-NOX Emissions from Natural Gas-Fired Fan Type
Central Furnaces
(a)  Definitions

     (1)  Fan Type Furnace is a self-contained space heater
          providing for circulation of heated air at pressures
          other than atmospheric through ducts more than
          10 inches in length- that have:

          (A)  an input rate of less than 175,000 BTU/hr; or

          (B)  for combination heating and cooling unit, a
               cooling rate of less than 65,000 BTU/hr.

     (2)  Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) is defined in
          Section 4.2.35 of Code of Federal Regulation, Title 10,
          Part 430, Subpart B, Appendix N.

     (3)  Useful Heat Delivered to the heated Space is the AFUE
          (expressed as a fraction) multiplied by the heat input.

(b)  Requirements

     (1)  A manufacturer shall not, after January 1,  1984,
          manufacture or supply for sale or use in the South
          Coast Air Quality Management District natural gas-fired
          fan type central furnaces,  unless such furnaces meet
          the requirements of subparagraph (3).

     (2)  A person shall not, after April 2,  1984 sell or offer-
          for sale within the South Coast Air Quality Management
          District natural gas-fired fan type central furnaces
          unless such furnaces meet the requirements  of
          subparagraph (3).

     (3)  Natural gas-fired fan type central  furnaces shall:

          (A)  not emit more than 40 nanograms of oxides of
               nitrogen (calculated as N02) per joule of useful
               heat delivered to the heated space;  and

          (B)  be certified in accordance with paragraph (c) of
               this rule.

(c)  Certification

     (1)  thepmanufacturer shall,have each appliance  model tested
          in1 accordance with the following:
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     (A)   Oxides  of  nitrogen measurements,  test equipment,
          and other  required test procedures shall be in
          accordance with methods approved by the
          Executive  Officer.

     (B)   Operation  of the furnace shall be in accordance
          with the procedures specified in Section 3.1  of
          Code of Federal Regulations,  Title 10, Part 430.
          Subpart B, Appendix N.

(2)   One of the two  formulas shown below shall be used to
     determine the nanograms of oxides  of nitrogen per joule
     of useful heat  delivered to the heated space:

          N = -4.566  x 104 x P x U.      N =  3.655 x 1010 x P
                  H  x C x E                (20.9-Y) x Z x E

     Where:

     N = nanograms of emitted oxides of nitrogen per joule
         of useful heat.

     P = concentration  (ppm volume) of  oxides of nitrogen in
         flue gas as tested.

     U = volume percent C02 in water-free flue gas for.
         stoichiometric combustion.

     H = gross heating value of fuel, BTU/Cu.Ft:  (60°F,
         30 in. Hg).

     C = measured volume percent of C02 in water-free flue
         gas, assuming complete combustion and no CO
         present.

     E = AFUE, percent  (calculated using Table 2).

     Y = volume percent of 02 in flue gas.

     Z = heating value of gas, joules/Cu. Meter  (0.0°C,
         1 ATM).

(3)   The manufacturer shall submit to the Executive Officer
     the following:

     (A)  A statement that  the model is in compliance with
          subsection  (b).   (The statement shall be signed
          and dated, and shall attest to the accuracy- of all
          statements).
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          (B)   General Information

               (i)   Name and address of manufacturer.

              (ii)   Brand name.

             (iii)   Model number,  as it appears on the furnace
                    rating plate.
          (C)   A description of  the furnace and specifications
               for each model being certified.

(d)   Identification

     The manufacturer shall display the model number of the
     furnace complying with subsection (b)  on the shipping carton
     and rating plate.

(e)   Enforcement

     (1)   The Executive Officer  may require the emission test
          results to be provided when deemed necessary to verify
          compliance.

     (2)   The Executive Officer  may periodically conduct such
          tests as are deemed necessary to  insure compliance with
          subsection (b) .

(f)   Exemptions

     (1)   -The provisions of this rule shall not apply to furnaces
          to be installed in mobile homes.

     (2)   The provisions of this rule shall not apply to natural
          gas-fired fan type central furnaces utilizing three-
          phase electrical current until January 1,  1986.
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