Draft Final Report
SCARCITY, RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION OF POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL MATERIALS USED FOR VEHICULAR EMISSIONS CONTROL
Sufareport
Prepared for
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2565 Plymouth Road
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105
CRA #501
-------
Charles
River
Associates
Draft Final Report EPA-420-D-81-101
SCARCITY, RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION OF POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL MATERIALS USED FOR VEHICULAR EMISSIONS CONTROL
Subreport
Prepared for
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2565 Plymouth Road
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105
CRA #501
Prepared by
Rath & Strong
21 Worthen Road
Lexington, Massachusetts 02173
This report is a separately bound appendix to the CRA Draft Final Report.
-------
Charles
River
Associates
The following material was submitted by subcontractor Rath & Strong,
in support of their projections of U.S. consumptions of platinum-group
metals for vehicular emissions control, as discussed in Chapter 3 of
the main project report prepared by Charles River Associates.
-------
FINAL REPORT
CRITICAL MATERIALS SCARCITY
RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION STUDY
SUBCONTRACT
BETWEEN
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INC.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02116
AND
RATH & STRONG INC.
21 WORTHEN ROAD
LEXINGTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02173
SUBCONTRACT NUMBER 501-1
UNDER
PRIME CONTRACT EPA NUMBER 68-03-2910
Rath SL Strong, Inc.
Management Consultants
-------
FINAL REPORT
CRITICAL MATERIALS SCARCITY
RECYCLING AND SUBSTITUTION STUDY
SUBCONTRACT
BETWEEN
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INC.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02116
AND
RATH & STRONG INC.
21 WORTHEN ROAD
LEXINGTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02173
SUBCONTRACT NUMBER 501-1
UNDER
PRIME CONTRACT EPA NUMBER 68-03-2910
April 1981
LeRoy H. Lindgren,
Vice President
Rath & Strong, Inc.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPOHATCO
-------
INDEX
1.0 Work Statement
2.0 Contract - Subcontract 501-1
3.0 Task 1 - Critical Materials Study
4.0 Task 2 - Recycling Study
5.0 Task 3 - Replacement Study
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
ARTICLE I
STATEMENT OF WORK
As subcontractor to Charles River Associates/ Rath & Strong
will help investigate for the Environmental Protection Agency
the potential of developing mobile source emission control tech-
nologies that are effective rn meeting the most future emission
standards, but which do not contain materials that: (1) are
critical or strategic, (2) contribute to balance of payment
difficulties, or (3) require undue reliance on potentially
unpredictable foreign sources of supply.
The specific goals which will be met by this project
are to (1) quantify the critical materials used in mobile
source emission control systems, (2) investigate the feasi-
bility of recycling those critical materials, and (3) study
materials that might be used as replacements for certain specific
critical materials.
In order to meet or exceed the goals of this contract,
Rath & Strong shall provide all of the necessary personnel,
facilities, and equipment to perform the following tasks.
Task 1 Critical Materials Study
/
Rath & Strong will quantify the amoun.ts of potentially
critical materials in current mobile source emission control
systems for automobiles, light trucks, and heavy trucks,
using prior work done by the firm for EPA, JPL, DOT, DOE and
NAS. Rath & Strong will also estimate materials requirements
at the component level for advanced emission systems for trucks,
motorcycles, and diesels, focusing on those components which
use significant amounts of potentially critical materials.
This work will be similar to earlier work done for automobiles
by Rath & Strong, but will be more narrowly focused on material
-2-
-------
requirements. Using the automotive market models of Data
Respurces, Inc., Rath & Strong will run future demand
scenarios as a basis for projecting required quantities of
materials.
Task 2 Recycling Study
Rath & Strong will provide limited general assistance
to CRA in its study of recycling, such as providing any
literature on the recycling of platinum which Rath & Strong
already has on hand.
Task 3 Replacement Study
Rath & Strong will analyze replacement of one material
for another in pollution control equipment to the extent such
substitutions are revealed by and related to the analysis of
material requirements for different emission control systems
in Task 1. Rath & Strong will assist CRA engineers in assessing
various further substitution possibilities/ and will provide
general assistance such as guiding CRA to knowledgeable industry
sources of information.
ARTICLE II
DELIVERABLE ITEMS
Monthly Progress Reports
During the period of performance of this subcontract,
Rath & Strong will provide monthly progress reports
within eight (8) days of the preceding month. If
requested, this information will be in writing.
-3-
-------
(a) A brief statement of work accomplished prior to
the state of the current reporting period;
(b) A brief statement of work performed during the
reporting period, regardless of results, including
photographs, graphs, tables or charts as necessary;
(c) Any technical problems, schedule changes, etc. ,
that will assist CRA's Project Officer in evaluating
the subcontractor's progress;
(d) All experimental data collected during the reporting
period;
(e) A statement of work to be accomplished in the next
reporting period, and
(f) Status of funds expended for the month, the
cumulative total, and a comparison of projected
and actual costs.
2. Task 1 Subreport
Within 3 months after the effective date of the
Subcontract, Rath & Strong will submit to CRA a
detailed listing of the quantities of potentially
critical materials required for emission control
systems under various scenarios for the size and
composition of future vehicular production.
Preliminary results will be provided to CRA as they
become available.
Within four months after the effective date of the
subcontract, Rath & Strong will.submit to CRA a
finished draft chapter presenting the above 1-istings
of critical materials, explaining clearly the auto
production scenarios upon which they are based and
any other underlying assumptions.
3. Task 3 Draft Material
Analysis of replacement possibilities by Rath & Strong
for Task 3, based on the Task 1 analysis, will be
submitted to CRA within eight (8) months after the
effective date of this subcontract. This discussion
will be in draft form suitable for inclusion in a
draft final report.
-4-
-------
ARTICLE III
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE
The period of performance of this contract shall be
eight (8) months from the effective date of this Subcontract,
which shall be concurrent with the effective state date of the
Prime Contract.
ARTICLE IV
This is a cost plus fixed fee completion type contract
as defined in FPR 1-3.405-5(e) (1).
The estimated allowable cost for this contract is
$26,643 and the fixed fee is $2,131. The total estimated cost
plus fixed fee for this contract is $28,774.
ARTICLE V
GENERAL PROVISIONS
R & S agrees that all work under this Subcontract is
subject to the terms set forth in the document entitled
"General Provisions" which is attached hereto and made a part
hereof.
In the General Provisions, the terms "Seller" refers to
General Research Corporation and "Buyer" refers to Charles
River Associates Incorporated.
This Subcontract requires the written consent of the
Prime Contract contracting officer prior to the placing of
this Subcontract.
-5-
-------
This Subcontract is entered into as of December 10, 1979.
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INCORPORATED
//
/ rA*S
By
Harrison S. Campbell
RATH & STRONG, INC.
v ,0 /
By:
E. Robert Barlow
Typed Name
Assistant Treasurer
Title
December 27, 1979
Date
Typed Name
Vice President and Treasurer
Title
December 10, 1979
Date
Written approval of
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
contracting officer:
fn/-
Date
r6-
-------
Task 1
Rath & Strong Inc. developed a set of scenarios for automobiles and light trucks
that are included with this report. We also included a forecast of the
econometric demand (consensus) and Rath & Strong's projection of the likely mix
or share that was used to project the economic forecast. The first scenario is a
technological projection of the changes in vehicles and emission systems by
company and by year at a constant volume.
These two scenarios were used to generate the critical material demands using
Rath & Strong's computer data base which resides on Data Resources Inc.
computer in Lexington. Each emission system was defined for each vehicle
configuration for several levels of emission standards. The diesel engines were
assumed to be equipped with a monolithic substrate contained in a 409 steel
clamshell particulate trap in which the particulate particles are burned off using
exhaust gas temperatures. The scenarios define the introduction of the 4-6 and
8 engines starting in 1980.
The summary of the critical materials is included in this section. Also, we
included the specifications of the emission system configurations used in the
vehicles.
The platinum series summary indicates that a decline in usage is likely due to
reduction in gasoline engine sizes and the introduction of diesel engines which
reduce the use of gasoline engines. Also, it was assumed that noble metals would
not be used on the particulate trap substrate.
The motorcycle usage of a catalytic device will not affect the usage
significantly.
The heavy truck conversion to diesel engines will put a demand on particulate
traps but it will have little or no effect on the critical materials demand. The
gasoline engine will be replaced by diesel engines in all classes over Class 2
trucks.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Task 2
Recycling Study
Rath & Strong has some doubts that a cost effective recycling procedure can be
developed. The current strategy of obtaining over 50,000 mile reliability in the
emission systems is probably more cost effective. The replacement costs of a
three-way catalyst will probably reach a $300 to $400 cost to customer.
Task 3
Replacement Study
Rath & Strong has worked on several emissions projects over the last 10 years
and has concluded that a substitute catalyst such as nickel shims or other similar
metal substrate will require a major redesign program in the automobile and light
truck industry. If a platinum (OPEC type) situation shortage occurs, we will be
faced with a major national environmental decision.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: Chrysler
3 WAY MONO - CLAM SHELL CONVERTER REDUCING OXIDATION (260) CLAMSHELL
WT
Part
Converter Assembly
Outer Wrap
Shell
I/O Pipes
Bed Support
Insulation
Substrates (Cordite
Washcoat
Platinum
Palladium
Nox Substrate
Washcoat
Rhodium (L4)
Ruthenium (L6-V8)
Description
Material
MS
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Fiber glass
Ceramic
2792
3920
3920
3920
KZ1-6
5747
26.17
8.00
4.00
2.50
3.77
1.50
3.10
AL203
Ceramic
AL203
5835
5748
5749
5747
5835
1936
430
.10
Ibs. grams
1.88
.59
3.10
.10
.09
.17
RATH & STRONG
INCOMPOHATCO
-------
Company: Ford
3 WAY MONOLITHIC CATALYST 63 CID
Part
Converter Assembly
Shell
Rings (No.)
Inlet Cone
Outlet Cone
Inlet Pipe
Flanges
Mesh
Hardware
Substrates (2) - Ceramic
Washcoat
CL Substrate
Platinum
Palladium
Nox Substrate
Washcoat
Rhodium (L6, V6 - V8)
Rhodium L4
Washcoat
Description
Material
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Steel
Ceramic
AL2°3
MS
3920
3920
3920
3920
3920
3920
5789
420
5747
5835
WT
20.61
6.47
2.70
1.35
1.35
1.35
.34
.51
.14
3.10
.10
Ibs. grams
Ceramic
AL203
5748
5749
5747
5835
1936
1936
5835
1
3.10
.10
.88
.59
.17
.09
.10
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: GM and AMC
REDUCING 3 WAY PELLETED OXIDATION CATALYST 260 CUBIC INCHES
Part
Description
Material
MS
WT
Converter Assembly
Outer Wrap
Shell
I/O Pipes
Bed Support
Insulation
Pellets (02)
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Fiber glass
Alumina
2792
3920
3920
3920
KZ1-6
5835
26.21
8.00
4.00
2.50
3.77
1.50
3.22
Platinum
Palladium
Nox Pellets
Rhodium L6-V6-V8
Rhodium L4
Alumina
5748
5749
5835
1936
1936
Ibs.
3.22
grams
1,88
.59
.17
.09
RATH A STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: Chrysler, Ford, AMC, and GM
02 MONOLITHIC START CATALYST 43 CID
Part
Description
Material
MS
WT
Converter Assembly
Shell Rings
Mesh
I/O Cones
Washcoat
Hardware
Heat Shield
Substrate
Platinum
Palladium
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
AL2°3
Steel
Aluminum
Ceramic
3920
5789
3920
5835
420
6202
6077
5748
5749
4.880
2.000
.250
.750
.10
.250
1.000
.530
grams
1.08
.47
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: Chrysler
02 MONOLITH OXIDATION 63 CID
Part
Description
Material
MS
WT
Converter Assembly
Outer Wrap
Shell
I/O Pipes
Bed Support
Insulation
Substrate (Cordite CL)
Wash Coat
Platinum
Palladium
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Fiber glass
Ceramic
AL203
2792
3920
3920
3920
KZ1-6
5747
5835
5748
5749
22.97
8.00
4.00
2.50
3.77
1.50
3.10
grams
,101bs.
1.74
.744
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: Ford
MONOLITHIC OXIDIZING CATALYST
63 CUBIC INCH SUBSTRATE
Part
Description
Material
MS
WT
Converter Assembly
Shell
Ring
Inlet Cone
Outlet Cone
Inlet Pipe
Flanges
Mesh
Hardware
Substrate /Cordite
Washcoat
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Steel
Ceramic
AL-0,
3920
' 3920
3920
3920
3920
3920
5789
420
5747
5835
7.900
2.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
.250
.150
.100
1.300
.10
Platinum
Palladium
5748
5749
Grams
1.74
.744
RATH ft STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
Company: GM and AMC
PELLETED OXIDATION 260 CUBIC INCHES
Part
Description
Material
MS
WT
Converter Assembly
Outer Wrap
Shell
I/O Pipes
Bed Support
Insulation
Pellets
Assembly
409SS
409SS
409SS
409SS
Fibre glass
Alumina
2792
3920
3920
3920
KZ1-6
5835
26.20
8.00
4.00
2.50
3.77
1.50
6.43
Platinum
Palladium
5748
5749
grams
1.74
.744
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS
Company; GM
Vehicles
Cars - USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total N.A.
Light Trucks
USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A
Mat'l
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
(in grams.)
MS 1980 1981 1982 1983
5748 11273400 10855800 8936400 8278200
5749 4823400 4645800 3826800 2584200
1936 - - - 586200
430
5700000
4723000 4890000 5500000 5900000
5748 2733305 2632055 2166685 2007100
5749 1169463 1126403 927831 626555
1936 - - - 142128
430
Est.
1984 1985 1986
7597800 7938000 9525600
2371800 2478000 2937600
505800 522000 636000
6050000 6150000 6190000
1842133 1924617 2309540
575057 600806 720968
122634 126562 154202
1987
8731800
2725800
564600
7930000
2117079
660887
136891
1382000
904000
1990
905000 1275000
1350000 1350000
1400000
1430000
1200000
Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks
PT 5748 14006705
PA 5749 5992863
RO 1936
RU 430
13487855 11103085 10285300 9439933 9862617
5772203 4754631 3210755 2946857 3078806
728328 628434 648562
11835140 10848879
3694568 3386687
790202s 701491
Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks
PT 5748 11129021
PA 5749 4761627
RO 1936
RU 430
11036729 10621773 10529288
4723230 4548521 3286921
745605
9863810 10514368
3079178 3282263
656652 691421
12734222
3975234
850231
13986199
4366062
904351
-------
CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS
Company; Ford
(in grams.)
Est.
Vehicles
Mat'l MS 1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1990
Cars - USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.
Light Trucks
USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.
PT
PA
RO
PT
PA
RO
5748
5749
1936
5748
5749
1936
5441920
2320780
0
2090000
1536000
2385071
1017146
0
5133040
2186360
0
1705000
2249696
958232
0
4158000
1298000
286000
1875000
1822358
568884
125347
4158000
1288000
270160
1975000
1822358
568884
118405
4033260
1259060
251900
2025000
1767687
551818
110402
3991680
1246080
242880
2075000
1749464
546129
106449
3991680
1246080
242880
2195000
1749464
546129
106449
3825360
1194160
234960
1690000
1676569
523373
102978
916000
715000
680000
900000
1000000 1000000 1030000 1040000 600000
Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks
Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks
PT 5748 7826991
PA 5749 3337926
RO 1936 0
PT 5748 5861130
PA 5749 2499550
RO 1936 0
7382736
3144592
0
587560
2494961
0
5980358
1866884
411347
5520790
1723421
379737
5980358
1866684
388565
5918684
1847631
384558
5800747
1810878
362302
5837613
1822324
364596
5741144
1792209
349329
5930224
1851234
360834
5741144
1792209
349329
6178510
1928741
375941
5501929
1717533
337938
4191423
1308413
257444
*R & S Forecast
-------
CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS
Company; AMC
Vehicles
Cars - USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.
Light Trucks
USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus '
Forecast
Total N.A.
Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks
Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks
c
Mat'l
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
MS 1980 1981
5748 846000 846000
5749 363000 363000
1936
430
285000
185000 170000
5748 457137 457137
5749 196147 196147
1936
430
154000
103000 85000
5748 1303137 1303137
5749 559147 559147
1936
430
5748 854905 756947
5749 366821 324789
1936
430
(in grams.)
1982 1983
846000 877920
363000 328800
20520
190000 225000
457137 474385
196147 177667
11088
140000 150000
1303137 1352305
559147 506467
31608
979579 1155158
420316 432631
27000
1984
883380
322960
24020
,
250000
477335
174512
12979
150000
1360715
497472
36999
1238251
452700
33669
1985
885060
321160
25100
250000
478243
173539
13563
155000
1363303
494699
38663
1254239
455123
35570
1986
799200
286200
24300
260000
431848
154648
13131
160000
1231048
440848
37431
1181806
423214
35934
Est.
1987
763680
273480
23220
*
130000
412655
147775
12547
*
50000
1176335
421255
35767
482297
172715
14664
1990
* = R & S Forec;ist
-------
CRA
CRITICAL MATERIALS
Company: Chrysler
Vehicles
Cars - USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.
Light Trucks
USA
Constant
Volume Total
Consensus
Forecast
Total-N.A.
Total USA
Cars & Light
Trucks
Total N.A.
Cars & Light
Trucks
ler
Mat'l
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
PT
PA
RO
RU
MS
5748
5749
1936
430
5748
5749
1936
430
5748
5749
1936
430
5748
5749
1936
430
1980 1981
2535200 2225400
1027000 919600
25200 13500
13420
950000
741000 930000
725868 637167
294046 263296
7215 3865
3842
272000
222000 160000
3261068 2862567
1321046 1182896
32415 17365
17262
2569892 2553354
1041053 1055120
25545 15489
13603
(in grams.)
1982
1710800
536900
53100
60800
990000
489829
153723
15203
17408
200000
2200629
690623
68303
78208
2143002
672538
66514
76160
1983
1466400
460200
70200
1100000
419853
131763
20099
185000
1886253
591963
90299
1983498
622482
94954
1984
1466400
460200
70200
1125000
419853
131763
20099
185000
1886253
591963
90299
2022088
634592
96002
1985
1428800
448400
68400
1150000
409088
128384
19584
195000
1837888
576784
87984
20228BO
634840
96840
Est.
1986
1278400
401200
61200
1160000
366026
114870
17523
195000
1644426
516070
78723
1823402
572238
07291
1987
1146800
359900
54900
910000
328347
103045
15719
*
200000
1475147
462945
70619
1339945
420515
64147
1990
-------
COMPARISON
GM
FORD
CHRYSLER
AMC '
VW
TOYOTA
HONDA
NISSAN
185 MPG
Electric
EV
O
O
O
0
0
1500
3 cyl
G/D
45/55
S
FWD
CVT
T300
EXP
FWD
O
Mini LeCar
O
O
Civic
2200
4 cyl
G/D
30/40
J
FWD
125
X-Truck
2 fe
0 0
E o
85 . S3
Courier
RWD
Omni
Maxi LeCar
Rabbit
Pickup
FWD
Tercel
FWD
Accord
310 FWD
210 RWD
2700
4 cyl
V6 cyl
G/D
25/35
X
FWD
125/440
X-Truck
FX
FWD
ATO
Topaz
K
K Truck
FWD
4WD
Jeep
Jetta
Van
FWD
Corolla
RWD
3200
4 cyl
V6 cyl
G/D
20/25
AX
FWD
440
Ltd
RWD
FIOD
3000
4 cyl
V6
G/D
25/35
FX
FWD
440
Taurus
FWD
ATO
3500
V6
G/D
20/25
KX
FWD
440
Versatile
RWD
FIOD
3700
V8/V6
G/D
20/25
CX
FWD
440
Contin.
RWD
FIOD
CODES
FWD - Front Wheel Drive
K or X - Design Designation for FWD Cars and Trucks
125/440 - FWD Transmission - GM
ATO - FWD Transmission - Ford
FIOD - RWD - Transmission - Ford
-------
NORTH AMERICAN
PASSENGER CAR MARKET
FORECAST
(X 1000)
CONSENSUS - SURVEY
Company
Ford
GM
Chrysler
AMC
VW
Honda
Domestic Market
Imports
Total - NA
Market
198C
1.536
4,723
741
185
197
«
7,382
2,549
9.931
)
%
SOM
15
47
8
2
2
w
74
26
198C
1,975
5,900
1,100
225
425
125
9,750
2,600
12,350
J
%
SOM
16
48
9
2
3
1
79
21
1985
2,075
6,150
1,150
250
550
250
10,425
2,275
12,700
%
SOM
17
48
9
2
4
2
82
18
RATH & STRONG
1987
1,690
7,930
910
130
520
130
11.310
1,690
13,000
f
%
SOM
13
61
7
1
4
1
87
13
Competitive Fleet not Available
Full Fleet and Electric
Limited to 3 Car Lines
Selling Renaults
Growing Fleet
Limited
Foreign Imports Lost
Assuming the Conservation Policy and Price of Gasoline will continue
to limit the imports from Europe and the USA small cars wil! reduce
the Japanese imports.
-------
NORTH AMERICAN
LIGHT TRUCK MARKET
FORECAST
(X 1000)
CONSENSUS - SURVEY
Company
FORD
GM
CHRYSLER
AMC
IH (Scout)
VW
NISSAN
Domestic Market
Import Trucks
Total Markets
1980 %
715
904
222
103
10
22
1,976
500
2,476
SOM
29
37
9
4
1
80
20
1983
«&
1,000
1,350
185
150
0
35
105
2,825
400
3.225
SOM
30
40
6
5
1
3
85
15
1985
%
1,030
1,400
195
155
0
35
110
2,925
275
3,200
SOM
32
44
6
5
1
3
91
9
RATH & STRONG
1987
%
600
1,200
200
50
0
50
110
2,210
150
2,360
SOM
25
51
8
2
2
3
91
9
RWD
FWD X - J Trucks
FWD K - L Trucks
4-Wheel Only
FWD
RWD
The light truck will lose volume to the cars.
-------
HJKU HASSLNGLK CAR
FORD
TrBIRD-
GRANADA
FAIRMONT
PINTO/ESCORT
EXP Efclt**
MUSTANG
MERCURY
XR7
MONARCH/COUGAR
ZEPHYR
BOBCAT/LYNX
LH-7
CAPRI
LINCOLN
MARK VI
VERSAILLES/CONTINENTAL
TOTAL
E
1) ERIKA-RD
2) TOWi-l CAR
3) TOPAZ- FWD
1) FRESH
5)
5)
7)
ACTUAL
1980
135
Ml
89
305
179
253
53
51
32
113
39
75
27
39
1
1981
130
97
151
235
2971
71*
205
51
11
68
76
1031
251
61
38
13
1,705
1982
135
110
170
190
380
160
110
55
15
75
65
110
50
15
35
10
102
1,875
1983
, 125
170
1607
95/1103
370
155
135
50
80
70
30/503
110
50
15
35
10
35
1,975
MEW
1,535
PINTO/BOBCAT REPLACEMENT
"FOX" VERSAILLES
FAIRMONT/ZEPHYR REPLACEMENT BY FORMAL ERIKA 2-DR a 1-DR
"FOX" FORD/MERCURY REPLACEMENT
"FOX" LINCOLN/MARK VI
1981
1985
190
260^
285
360
170
130
90
951
115*
130
60
10
105
605
185
120/1706
280
375
180
125
~90
15/655
110*
110
65
10
35
50
TAURUS-Rffl
TAURUS-FWD
GRANADA/COUGAR MID-YEAR REPLACEMENT
"FOX" LINCOLN/HARK REPLACEMENT
INCLUDES LUXURY TOPAZ
1986
180
320
275
375
180
120
85
130
110*
110
65
10
no;
657
2,025 2,075 2,195
11/18/80
BFC
REVISED PER 80E & PROGRAM 107
SALES PLANNING 12/5/80
-------
SUMMARY OF PRODUCTION
ASSUMING GENERAL MOTORS (ESTES FORECAST)
85-31.0MPG 90 - 40 MPG 95 - 50 MPG
WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLE (185 MPG CREDIT)
Year
1985
1990
1995
MPG
31.0
40.0
50.0
EV
50
524
1078
S
0
675
1500
TX
957
1757
1507
JX
1163
941
655
X
1439
824
430
FX
158
AX
1152
749
530
BX
325
50
cx
200
50
EX
64
55
KX
154
75
-------
AUTOMOTIVE SCENARIO 1980-1995
Introduction
Some of our clients in the tooling industry are confronted with unexpected
windfall business that may create an overoptimistic forecast of their future
capacity requirements.
To meet the need for valid consumption scenarios, we have developed a
methodology to assess the impact of current economical trends, new technology,
and current legislative action relating to the automotive industry. These data
are "what if" scenarios, not necessarily predictions or forecasts.
A. Methodology
The methodology which we elected to follow, if straightforward at first
sight, looks awesome:
1. These scenarios optimize diesel engines and full size cars to achieve
maximum profits and machine tool investments.
2. We created a hypothetical fleet of cars for each manufacturer, year by
year, for the 1980-1995 period which would meet a hypothetical CAFE
standard (between 1985 and 1995), would comply with the 1985 emission
standards, and still generate profits for the manufacturers.
This first phase is referred to as the scenario.
3. For sake of simplicity and for lack of better knowledge, we kept the
total production of cars to the 1979 level knowing that we could always
modify the outputs by merely changing the production input in the
revised scenario.
We will now cover in detail the assumptions made for each company in
preparing the scenario.
RATH & STRONG
INCOftPOftATCO
-------
B. Scenario Assumptions
The scenarios for a passenger car fleet were based on the following
technological assumptions:
1. Energy conservation would still be the driving force during the eighties
and the nineties for lack of a well-defined energy production policy.
2. Long before the $2.50 per gallon price level, consumers' demands for
economy cars will override the standards mandated by Congress.
3. EPA would maintain their 1985 standards on HC, CO, and NOxJ-fest
usive evident
4. Technology would solve the emission and particulate standards and the
diesel engine will be a significant percentage of the market.
5. Diesel fuel oil will be made available by the refineries from crude oil or
synthetic process. The recent publications of both the American
Petroleum Institute and the Society of Automotive Engineers support
this assumption. Briefly stated, the present average production mix for
U. S. refineries is referred to by the ratio of 2.1 parts gasoline to 1 part
distillates. At this ratio, diesel fuel produced by U S. refineries equals
28,600,000 gallons a day. To make larger amounts of diesel fuel, it
would be necessary to expand certain processing units. At a ratio of
0.7, these additions could theoretically require a total of plant
investment $85 million. However, production of distillates would
increase by 75%.
Given the production mix of the scenario the U. S. car population of
1995 could consist of approximately 60% gasoline vehicles and 40%
diesel vehicles. This car population could be fueled by U. S. crude oil
refineries at an economically feasible production level of 0.7 parts
gasoline to 1 part distillate referred to previously.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
6. There would be no serious alternative for the internal combustion
engine until 1990. The only serious alternate would be the birth of the
electric or hybrid electric car for cummuting purposes.
Our fundamental assumptions applying to all scenarios were:
1. CAFE standard will increase by 1.5 mpg per year starting 1986 to reach
35 mpg in 1990 and 42 mpg in 1995.
2. Emission standards will be met by all engines in the scenario including
diesel engines.
3. Reconfiguration to FWD with downsizing would lead to a 28% to 39%
fuel economy improvement.
4. Diesel engines provide an increase of 15% to 20% in fuel economy over
a comparable gas engine.
5. Turbocharging improves performance without improving or penalizing
fuel economy.
6. GASAHOL will be used in limited applicationsup to 10% by 1995.
C. Scenario Assumptions-foFSgmpanies
^ =yn
1. Scenario Assumptions for AMC
a. Renault c^rs will be weight reduced when U. S. production begins in
1983.
b. Pacer dropped in 1980.
c. 258 and 232 JL-6 engines weight reduced in 1980.
RATH & STRONG
INCOMFOKATCO
-------
d. Eagle downsized in 1981.
e. Produce own 4-cylinder engines in 1983.
f. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(1) 50% FWD Renault
30% 4WD
20% RWD
(2) 10% 6-cylinder gas engines
90% 4-cylinder gas engines
(3) 15% Turbocharges engines
g. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(1) 85% FWD
15% 4WD
(2) 35% 4-cylinder diesel engines (Purchased from Renault)
65% 4-cylinder gas engines
(3) 25% Turbocharged engines
h. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 95% FWD
5% 4WD
(2) 90% 4-cylinder diesel engines
10% 4-cylinder gas engines
(3) 45% Turbocharged engines
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
2. Scenario Assumptions for Chrysler
a. Stays in business.
b. Strategy parallels GM.
(1) All cars reconfigured to FWD on K line by 1983.
(2) Introduce commuter car in 1989.
First Year With FWD
80 81 82 83 84 85
Body Type
FK MK LK*
EK
RK
* Omni will use K car components beginning in 1985.
c. Buy VW L-4 engines until 1981.
d. Import Mitsubishi cars and engines until 1984.
e. Produce own L-4 engine in 1982. (Mexico) (2.2)
Product L-4 engine. (Trenton, Michigan) (1.8)
f. Buy Peugeot L-4 diesel engine.
g. Produce own L-4 diesel engine in 1986 on a transfer line which will
be capable of producing both gasoline and diesel engines.
h. All cars will be weight reduced when they go to FWD.
RATH ft STRONG
INCOMPOMATCD
-------
i. Fleet sales for 1985 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD
(2) 75% 4-cylinder gas engines
25% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
j. Fleet sales for 1990 as follows:
(1) 55% 4-cylinder gas engines
i
45% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
k. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines
«.
(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
3. Scenario Assumptions for Ford
a. Improve CAFE by introducing and expanding the Escort to the car
lines.
First Year With FWD
1980 1981 1982 1983
Body Type HE F Hsp
Fiesta*
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
* Fiesta will be dropped as an import in 1981 and will begin production in
the U. S. using Escort components.
b. Proco is cancelled.
c. Import Toyo Kogyo 4-cylinder diesel 2.0L engines, beginning in
1984.
d. Import TC 6-cylinder diesel BMW-STEYR in 1984.
e. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(1) 75%FWD
25% RWD
(2) 65% 4-cylinder gas engines
5% 4-cylinder diesel engines
15% 6-cylinder gas engines
15% 8-cylinder gas engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
f. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(1) 95%FWD
5% RWD
(2) 40% 4-cylinder gas engines
30% 4-cylinder diesel engines
30% 6-cylinder gas engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
g. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD
(2) 50% 4-cylinder gas engines
45% 4-cylinder diesel engines
5% 6-cylinder gas engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
4. Scenario Assumptions for GM
a. Improve CAFE by expanding the X line.
First Year With FWD
80 81 82 83 84 85 86
Body Type X JX AX BX TX YX
CX AspX FX
P EX
KX
(1) Accelerate FWD program so that all cars are FWD by 1986.
(2) Reduce period between downsizing and FWD from seven to
five years.
(3) Introduce a two-seat S Car (commuter) by 1983.
b. 1986 would be the first year with all front-wheel drives.
This, in our opinion, represented the greatest opportunity for GM to
capitalize on engine, transmissions, and FWD commonality.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
c. An electric vehicle will be introduced in 1985 with an MPG credit
of 185 MPG. The GM forecast is to produce 200,000 EV by 1990.
d. 4-cylinder engines were optimized rather than diesels and 6-
cylinder engines.
e. CAFE would be 27.5 MPG in 1985, 35.0 MPG in 1990, and 42.5 MPG
in 1995.
f. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(1) 50% 4-cylinder gas engine (1984-3-cylinder-1.5L-gas engine)
10% 4-cylinder diesel engine (1984-V5-2.7L-diesel engine)
15% 6-cylinder gas engine
20% 6-cylinder diesel engine
5% 8-cylinder diesel engine
(2) 17% Turbocharged engine
g. Fleet sales for 1990 as follows:
(1) 46% 4-cylinder gas engine - 3 cylinder gas engine
40% 4-cylinder diesel engine
10% V6-cylinder diesel engine - V5-cylinder diesel engine
4% Electric Vehicles
(2) 22% Turbocharged engines
h. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 37% 4-cylinder gas engine - 3-cylinder gas engine
50% 4-cylinder diesel engine
5% V6-cylinder diesel engine - V5-cylinder diesel engine
8% Electric Vehicles
(2) 15% Turbocharged engines
RATH ft STRONG
INCOftPORATCO
-------
5. Scenario Assumptions for Honda
a. Cars will be built eventually in the U. S.
b. Produce or buy diesel engines.
c. Fleet sales for 1985 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD
(2) 100% 4-cylinder gas engines
(3) 15% Turbocharged engines
d. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(1) 70% 4-cylinder gas engines
30% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
e. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
6. Scenario Assumptions for VW
a. Cars will eventually be U. S. built except engines will be imported.
b. Rabbit will be redesigned in 1984.
c. Bus get diesel engine in 1985.
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
d. Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(1) 95%FWD
5% RWD (Bus)
(2) 30% 4-cylinder gas engines
70% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
e. Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(1) 100% FWD
(2) 15% 4-cylinder gas engines
85% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(3) 20% Turbocharged engines
f. Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(1) 5% 4-cylinder gas engines
95% 4-cylinder diesel engines
(2) 20% Turbocharged engines
RATH & STRONG
MCOMFOAATCD
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
AMC
LAST UPDATE 12-18-80
(UNITS X1OOO)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG
L-4
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L- '
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4D
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
V-8
V-8
CID
70
78
78
78
115
121
121
151
151
14O
14O
78
78
14O
14O
70
14O
70
140
232
232
232
232
232
258
258
258
3O4
3O4
L
1. 1
1.3
1 .3
1.3
1.8
2.O
2.O
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.3
1.3
2.3
2.3
1. 1
2.3
1. 1
2.3
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.2
4.2
5.O
5.0
BD
R1
R5
R2
R3
R3
AX
H
E
H
E
H
R2
R3
E
H
R1
R1
E
AX
E
H
H
P
E
H
P
AX
P
TR
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
M
A
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
DR
F
F
F
F
F
R
R
4
R
4
R
F
F
4
R
F
4
F
4
R
4
R
R
R
4
R
R
R
R
MPG
35
31
32
32
24
26
25
24
25
25
26
32
32
25
26
44
31
44
31
23
21
23
24
22
2O
23
22
16
16
79
0
2O
O
0
3
23
31
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
64
0
97
O
38
O
O
0
6
3
2O
8O
0
3O
O
O
1O
0
O
0
51
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
74
117
3
O
0
22
81
O
4O
O
0
50
O
0
10
51
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
33
0
3O
O
34
37
O
0
0
24
82
O
SO
O
O
SO
O
0
27
58
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
25
O
25
O
25
25
O
0
O
26
83
O
O
6O
6O
O
O
O
O
O
27
58
0
0
1O
0
O
0
O
O
O
2O
O
15
0
2O
15
0
O
O
27
84
0
O
60
60
0
O
O
O
0
37
58
1O
10
10
1O
O
O
O
O
0
15
O
O
0
15
O
O
O
O
27.5
85
O
O
60
6O
O
O
O
O
O
47
58
1O
1O
1O
10
O
O
O
O
O
1O
O
O
O
1O
O
O
O
O
29
86
1O
O
60
6O
O
0
O
O
0
27
48
10
10
20
1O
O
30
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
3O.5
B7
25
O
6O
6O
0
O
O
0
O
17
18
15
20
20
1O
O
4O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
32
88
3O
O
6O
60
0
0
O
O
O
10
5
15
2O
10
5
15
30
15
10
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
33.5
89
50
0
60
CO
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
15
2O
O
O
2O
30
2O
1O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
35
9O
55
O
50
50
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
15
20
O
O
3O
25
3O
1O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
36 5
91
55
O
4O
40
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
55
15
65
15
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
38
92
4O
O
30
30
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
SO
15
8O
1O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
39.5
93
25
O
25
25
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
95
1O
95
10
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
41
94
15
O
15
15
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
110
1O
110
10
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
42.5
95
O
O
1O
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
127
10
128
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
TOTAL: 285
285
285
285
285
285
285
285
285 285
285
285 285 285 285
285
285
AX-SPIRIT
E -EAGLE
H -CONCORD
P -PACER
R1-COMMUTER CAR
R2-LE CAR
R3-R18
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
CHRYSLER
LAST UPDATE 12-18-8O
(UNITS X1000)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4 '
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-40
L-4D
L-4D
L-40
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
1 -A TO1
CID
86
86
86
98
98
98
1O4
11O
11O
135
135
135
135
156
156
156
156
156
156
86
86
11O
110
11O
11O
135
135
135
135
86
86
116
116
116
116
135
135
135
135
86
86
116
116
116
1 1fi
L
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.6
.7
.8
.8
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
.4
.4
.8
.8
.8
.8
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
1.4
.4
.9
.9
.9
.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
.4
.4
.9
.9
.9
. q
BD
LKV
Ml
S
Ml
M2
M3
L
L
LK
FK
LK
MK
RK
M2
M3
FK
LK
MK
RK
LK
S
FK
LK
MK
RK
FK
LK
MK
RK
LK
S
FK
LK
MK
RK
FK
LK
MK
RK
LK
S
FK
LK
MK
RK
TR
A
M
A
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
DR
F
F
F
f
R
R
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
R
R
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
f
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
MPG
37
37
4O
32
31
31
27
31
37
31
31
31
31
25
25
27
27
27
27
37
4O
36
37
35
35
31
31
31
31
SO
52
41
41
41
41
4O
4O
40
40
50
52
41
41
41
41
79
O
28
O
28
a
10
186
O
O
0
O
0
0
8
1O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
20
80
O
28
O
28
8
1O
186
O
O
O
O
0
O
8
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
22
81
O
28
O
28
8
1O
70
O
O
ISO
O
0
O
8
1O
197
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
24
82
O
28
O
28
8
10
O
7O
O
2OO
0
O
O
8
1O
200
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
89
0
O
0
O
O
O ,
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
26
83
O
28
0
28
8
1O
O
7O
O
2OO
O
4O
4O
8
1O
2OO
O
40
4O
O
O
O
O
O
18
O
O
0
O
O
O
ISO
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
6
O
6O
O
0
O
27
84
O
28
O
28
8
1O
O
7O
O
20O
O
4O
4O
8
1O
2OO
O
4O
4O
0
O
O
O
0
18
O
0
0
0
O
0
150
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
6O
O
O
0.
27.5
85
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
70
ISO
2O
50
50
0
O
15O
2O
50
5O
O
0
20
O
15
IB
2O
O
15
15
O
O
125
0
15
15
O
O
O
0
O
O
6O
0
O
O
29
86
15
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
5O
100
20
50
SO
0
O
100
2O
50
5O
O
O
25
0
2O
2O
25
15
2O
2O
O
O
75
15
25
25
25
1O
10
10
O
O
40
10
1O
1O
30.5
87
2O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
50
SO
20
4O
4O
O
O
75
20
4O
4O
O
O
25
0
2O
2O
25
20
2O
20
O
O
75
2O
3O
30
3O
20
20
20
0
O
4O
15
15
15
32
88
25
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
50
75
2O
3O
3O
O
O
6O
2O
3O
30
0
O
3O
15
20
2O
30
20
20
20
O
0
75
25
30
30
4O
25
20
20
O
O
40
15
15
15
33.5
89
25
O
15
O
O
O
O
O
4O
60
20
25
25
0
O
60
2O
25
25
10
1O
30
15
2O
20
30
20
2O
20
10
O
65
25
25
25
40
25
25
25
1O
O
4O
1O
10
1O
35
9O
25
O
2O
O
O
O
O
O
35
50
2O
25
25
O
0
50
2O
25
25
15
15
30
2O
2O
2O
30
20
2O
2O
15
15
45
20
2O
2O
45
3O
3O
30
15
15
20
1O
10
10
36.5
91
35
O
4O
0
O
O
0
0
35
50
2O
20
2O
0
O
25
10
1O
1O
25
25
35
25
25
25
3O
15
15
15
25
25
35
10
1O
1O
55
40
40
4O
25
25
1O
0
0
0
38
92
35
O
SO
O
O
O
O
O
35
5O
20
20
20
O
O
10
O
0
O
25
35
4O
3O
30
30
2O
10
1O
10
4O
40
2O
0
O
O
55
<1O
4O
4O
4O
40
O
O
0
0
39.5
93
3O
O
55
O
O
O
O
O
3O
45
1O
1O
10
O
O
1O
O
O
O
25
45
40
3O
3O
30
20
O
O
O
5O
50
20
O
O
O
5S
45
45
45
5O
50
0
O
O
O
41
94
25
0
55
0
0
O
O
O
25
4O
1O
10
10
0
O
10
O
O
O
2O
45
35
20
2O
2O
15
0
O
O
70
70
20
0
O
0
5O
40
4O
4O
70
7O
O
O
0
0
42.5
95
15
O
40
O
0
O
0
O
15
30
1O
1O
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
1O
45
3O
15
15
15
1O
O
O
O
1OO
100
2O
0
O
O
5O
3O
3O
30
1OO
1OO
O
0
0
0
-------
L-4TD t35 2.2 FK
L-4TD 135 2.2 LK
L-4TD 135 2.2 MK
L-4TD 135 2.2 RK
L-6 225 3.7 CR
L-6 225 3.7 E
L-6 225 3.7 F
L-6 225 3.7 M
V-8 318 5.O CR
V-8 318 5.O E
V-B 318 5.O F
V-8 318 5.O M
V-8 318 5.O Y
V-8 36O 5.9 E
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
F
F
f
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
36
40
36
40
20
20
2O
2O
18
18
18
18
19
13
0
O
0
O
4
O
191
13
125
58
62
165
O
54
O
O
O
O
4
O
191
13
125
58
62
165
O
54
O
O
O
O
O
28
O
95
65
58
O
145
2O
O
O
O
O
0
O
56
0
94
45
O
O
84
20
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
12
O
10
0
O
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
15
10
10
O
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
t5
to
10
10
O
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
0
20
10
15
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
20
15
20
15
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
20
15
20
15
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
25
20
25
20
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
30
25
3O
3O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
3O
30
30
3O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
30
3O
3O
30
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
3O
3C
3O
30
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
TOTAL: 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O 95O
C -NEWPORT
E -MAGNUM
F -ASPEN
L -OMNI
M -DIPLOMAT
Ml-CHAMP
M2-ARROW
M3-SAPPARO
R -NEW YORKER
S -COMMUTER CAR
Y -IMPERIAL
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
FORD
LAST UPDATE 12-18-8O
(UNITS X10OO)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TO
L-4
L-4D
L-4TD
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6T
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-8
V-8. /
K n
CID
78
98
98
98
140
14O
140
140
140
78
98
98
98
HO
140
7O
70
70
7O
7O
7O
45
45
45
20O
250
25O
2OO
171
171
171
171
171
171
231
231
231
231
231
231
231
255
255
irr;
L
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.3
2.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.8
O.8
o.a
3.3
4. 1
4. 1
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.2
A 1
BD 1
HE "
FA
FA
HE
F
F
HE
H
HS
HE
FA
HE
HS
F
F
FA
F
HE
FA
F
HE
S
S
S
F
B
X
F
F
F
H
HS
X
XS
A
B
C
E
X
XS
XS
B
C
f
rR
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
M
M
A
A
A
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
DR
F
F
F
F
R
F
F
R
R
F
F
F
R
R
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
R
R
R
R
F
F
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
P
MPG
32
33
32
32
23
26
25
24
24
32
33
32
32
23
26
5O
50
50
5O
50
50
48
6O
60
20
19
19
20
26
28
2O
20
28
28
22
26
26
26
22
22
26
22
22
y?
79
O
O
58
0
29
0
O
1O9
118
O
O
0
O
29
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
187
4
168
O
O
0
1O
122
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
20
80
O
0
86
O
2O4
0
O
1O9
173
O
0
O
45
58
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
187
135
168
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
46
46
16
22
81
29
0
144
29
229
0
144
O
173
0
O
O
86
115
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
194
O
O
194
0
O
0
99
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
84
54
51
24
82
34
144
O
129
O
303
144
0
O
74
O
87
0
O
120
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
194
O
O
O
O
O
1O8
O
O
O
95
14
O
110
117
1OO
26
83
161
12O
O
273
O
294
68
O
O
75
24
95
O
O
13O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
194
O
O
0
O
0
71
O
O
O
95
14
0
84
97
78
27
84
185
15O
0
315
0
276
O
O
0
90
35
11O
O
0
145
O
O
7O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
194
O
O
O
O
0
51
O
O
0
64
14
O
58
64
52
27.5
85
215
155
O
335
0
276
O
O
0
10O
45
115
0
O
145
O
O
55
O
O
15
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
194
O
O
O
0
0
35
O
O
O
48
0
O
42
48
36
29
86
2O5
ISO
0
325
0
271
O
0
O
11O
SO
125
O
O
150
0 '
O
50
O
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
194
0
O
O
O
O
0
70
75
64
0
O
231
O
O
0
3O.5
87
195
135
0
265
O
146
O
O
0
12O
65
135
0
O
ISO
50
75
4O
0
0
3O
SO
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
194
0
O
O
O
O
7O
75
64
0
O
231
0
0
O
32
88
155
95
O
225
0
O
O
O
O
16O
105
175
O
O
O
75
75
25
O
O
5O
75
1OO
O
O
O
O
O
O
194
O
0
91
50
O
70
75
64
O
O
231
O
O
O
~
33.5
89
14O
75
O
225
O
O
O
O
O
175
125
175
O
O
O
89
8O
25
20
2O
5O
75
181
O
O
O
O
0
O
194
O
0
91
SO
O
50
50
SO
O
0
15O
0
0
0
"*
35
9O
1OO
75
O
125
O
O
O
0
0
175
125
175
O
O
O
85
70
69.
3O
3O
65
1OO
266
15
O
O
O
O
0
194
O
O
91
25
O
5O
50
50
O
0
125
0
0
0
r\
36.5
91
1OO
75
O
125
O
O
0
O
O
175
125
175
O
0
O
1O5
SO
69
50
5O
65
18O
266
3O
O
O
O
O
0
175
0
0
75
25
0
25
25
25
0
O
10O
O
O
O
r\
38
92
1OO
75
O
125
O
O
0
0
O
175
125
175
O
O
O
95
9O
69
6O
6O
65
230
271
50
O
O
O
O
O
150
O
0
50
25
0
O
O
0
0
O
1OO
0
O
O
r>
39.5
93
1OO
75
O
125
O
O
O
O
O
175
125
175
O
0
O
85
8O
69
70
7O
65
23O
351
7O
O
O
O
O
O
150
0
' 0
00
25
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
41
94
1OO
75
O
75
O
O
O
O
O
175
125
175
0
O
O
75
7O
69
BO
BO
65
28O
396
ICO
O
O
O
O
O
150
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
42.5
95
1OO
75
O
25
0
O
O
O
0
175
125
175
O
O
0
75
7O
69
8O
80
65
33O
4O6
14O
O
0
O
O
O
1OO
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
-------
V-fl 302 5.0 A
V-8 3O2 5.O B
V-8 3O2 5.O C
V-8 302 5.0 E
V-8 3O2 S.O F
V-8 3O2 S.O HS
V-8 3O2 5.0 X
V-8 3O2 S.O XS
V-8 351 5.8 A
V-8 351 5.8 AS
V-8 351 5.8 B
V-8 351 5.8 E
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
V-8 4OO 6.6 A A R
V-B 4OO 6.6 BAR
V-8 4OO 6.6 CAR
V-8 4OO 6.6 E A R
V-8 46O 7.5 C A R
16
17
16
16
19
18
18
16
15
15
15
15
13
12
13
12
1O
TOTAL:
A -LTD
AS-THUNDER BIRD
B -FORD
C -CONTINENTAL
E -MARK
F -FAIRMONT
FA-FIESTA
HE -ESCORT
H -PINTO
HS-MUSTANG
S -COMMUTER CAR
X -GRANADA
XS-VERSAILLE
7f
38
0
15
64
35
95
14
127
288
292
14
35
74
57
10
27
2O9O
71
112
51
67
64
35
O
0
O
115
119
0
0
O
O
O
O
2O9O
71
74
41
62
64
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
2O9O
O
5O
2O
30
0
0
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
2O9O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
2O90
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
2O9O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
2O9O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
2O9O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
2O9O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
2O9O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
2090
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
209O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
209O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
2O9O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2O9O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
209O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
2O9O
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
GM-EV
LAST UPDATE 2- 1 1-81
(UNITS X1OOO)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG
EV
L-3
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4 '
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-4T
L-3D
L-4D
L-40
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
V-6
M-KTf
CID
.
9O
98
98
110
11O
110
110
151
151
151
151
151
98
151
151
151
151
9O
1 1O
11O
151
151
151
110
151
151
151
173
173
173
173
173
229
229
229
229
229
231
231
231
231
231
231
->-> 1
L
.
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
» R
BD
EV
S>
T
TX
OP
AX
JX
X
AX
ASX
H
JX
X
TX
AX
ASX
JX,
X
S
JX
TX
AX
ASX
X
TX
AX
ASX
X
AX
FX
H
JX
X
A
AX
AS
FX
X
A
AX
F
rx
H
JX
AX
TR
_
A
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
DR
F
F
R
F
R
F
F
F
F
F
R
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
R
F
F
R
F
R
F
R
R
F
R
F
R
F
F
MPG
185
50
33
36
3O
31
31
31
28
28
25
28
28
36
28
28
28
28
65
40
42
37
37
37
42
37
37
37
26
26
22
26
26
22
26
22
26
22
23
28
23
28
23
28
^n
79
O
O
307
O
18
0
O
O
O
O
145
0
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
76
0
0
62
0
62
O
142
352
O
13
0
r,3
O
O
2O
8O
O
O
4O4
O
18
O
O
0
0
O
145
O
15O
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
76
O
7O
1OO
O
1OO
0
O
352
O
88
0
63
O
O
22
81
O
O
5O4
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
145
O
3OO
O
0
O
O
5O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
76
1OO
1OO
O
1OO
0
0
352
0
138
0
1 13
O
0
24
82
O
O
6O4
O
O
O
10O
O
ISO
O
O
145
3OO
O
0
O
O
10O
0
25
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
1O6
120
O
1OO
50
30
O
0
352
O
138
0
113
O
26
83
O
O
754
0
O
0
125
50
2OO
0
0
245
35O
O
25
O
0
125
O
5O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
SO
50
0
156
14Q
0
100
30
3O
0
0
352
0
138
0
113
50
27
84
1O
O
854
0
O
O
ISO
10O
200
O
0
245
325
O
5O
0
O
150
O
50
0
25
O
25
O
O
0
0
too
150
O
206
17O
O
155
n
90
0
O
352
O
138
O
1 13
10O
27.5
85
2O
O
0
854
0
0
20O
175
20O
O
O
245
325
O
1OO
0
O
175
0
7O
O
4O
O
40
O
O
0
O
10O
150
O
2O6
170
O
155
O
90
0
0
352
O
138
O
1 13
100
29
86
25
O
O
854
0
0
20O
175
254
0
O
245
325
3O
ISO
1OO
100
225
0
7O
3O
50
O
50
O
O
0
25
200
20O
O
256
22O
0
185
0
12O
0
0
352
0
138
0
1 13
' 160
3O.5
87
35
35
O
8O4
O
0
2OO
175
200
54
O
245
325
40
ISO
, 100
10O
225
0
85
55
7O
25
80
5O
30
20
30
2OO
2OO
0
2O6
22O
O
185
O
120
0
O
167
0
63
O
63
160
32
88
85
85
O
804
O
25
175
175
O
154
O
205
3OO
55
10O
8O
8O
2OO
0
1 15
148
1OO
50
1OO
148
50
50
5O
175
175
O
10O
100
O
155
O
1OO
0
0
167
O
63
O
63
1OO
33.5
89
175
148
O
804
0
50
150
15O
0
1O4
O
ISO
ISO
100
75
6O
6O
1OO
100
145
198
15O
100
150
198
10O
12O
1OO
1OO
1OO
O
75
75
O
55
O
40
0
O
1OO
0
O
O
30
no
35
9O
200
200
O
704
O
10O
1OO
100
O
79
O
75
75
125
25
2O
2O
25
2OO
200
258
2OO
175
2OO
248
12O
ISO
130
75
75
0
6O
5O
O
50
0
O
O
O
88
0
O
0
0
50
36.5
91
25O
223
0
7O4
O
1OO
100
100
O
79
O
SO
50
125
25
20
2O
25
2OO
22O
298
2OO
175
2OO
298
12O
150
130
50
50
O
4O
4O
0
3O
0
O
O
0
80
0
0
0
0
50
38
92
3OO
253
O
704
O
50
50
50
0
54
O
0
O
15O
0
0
O
O
3OO
240
348
250
2OO
225
348
18O
200
ISO
25
25
O
25
25
O
25
O
O
O
O
5O
0
0
O
0
50
39.5
93
325
253
O
7O4
O
50
50
5O
0
O
O
O
O
ISO
0
O
O
O
40O
270
348
250
20O
225
348
180
2OO
180
0
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
0
0
4 1
94
425
3O3
O
604
O
25
25
5O
0
O
O
O
O
150
O
O
0
O
50O
32O
388
250
2OO
225
398
ISO
2OO
18O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
0
0
0
O
0
42.5
95
500
353
O
541
O
25
25
5O
0
O
O
O
O
100
O
O
O
O
65O
37O
478
2OO
2OO
20O
478
150
175
150
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
0
-------
V-6T 231 3.S BX
V-6T 231 3.8 V
V-6D 173 2.8 AX
V-6D 173 2.8 OX
V-6D 173 2.8 X
V-6D 25O 4. BX
V-6D 25O 4. CX
V-6D 25O 4. EX
V-6D 25O 4. KX
V-6TD 25O 4. BX
V-6TD 25O 4. CX
V-6TD 25O 4. EX
V-6TD 25O 4. KX
V-8 267 4.4 A
V-8 267 4.4 AS
V-8 267 4.4 B
V-8 3O1 4.9 AS
V-8 3O1 4.9 B
V-8 305 5.0 A
V-8 3O5 5.O AS
V-8 305 5.0 B
V-8 3O5 5.0 F
V-8 3O5 5.0 H
V-8 . 3O5 5.O X
V-8 307 5.O B
V-8 35O 5.7 B
V-8 350 5.7 C
V-8 35O 5.7 E
V-8 350 5.7 F
V-8 35O 5.7 K
V-8 350 5.7 V
V-8 368 6.O C
V-8 368 6.O K
V-8 4O3 6.6 C
V-8 4O3 6.6 E
V-8 4O3 6.6 V
V-8 425 7.O C
V-8 425 7.O E
V-8T 3O1 5.0 F
V-8D 325 5.3 B
V-8D 325 5.3 E
V-8D 325 5.3 K
V-8D 35O 5.7 B
V-8D 350 5.7 C
V-8D 350 5.7 E
V-8D 35O 5.7 K
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
R
F
f
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
F
R
R
R
R
F
R
F
R
R
F
R
R
F
F
R
R
F
F
29 G O
23 O O
34 O O
34 O 0
34 O 0
31 O O
3100
31 O O
31 O 0
31 0 O
3100
31 O O
31 O O
2O 362 421
2O 429 429
19 131 131
2O 87 87
2O 99 99
19 395 1OO
19 484 4O
19 67 67
18 142 142
19 16 16
19 135 O
19 O 100
16 8O6 355
16 106 14O
16 4O 4O
16 226 126
16 444 O
14 28 38
19 O IOO
19 O IOO
15 134 O
15 47 O
1411 O
13' 217 O
13 54 O
2O O 226
25 O 0
25 O O
25 O O
23 O 739
23 O 32O
23 O 64
23 O 254
TOTAL: 570O 57OO
A -MALIBU
AS-MONTE CARLO
B -IMPALA
C -NINETY EIGHT
D -FLEETWOOD
E -TORONADO
F -CAMARO
H -MONZA(RWD)
J -MONZAfFWD
K. -SEVILLE
OP-OPEL
S -COMMUTER
T -CHEVETTE
X -NOVA(RWD)
X -CITATION!
Y -CORVPTU
0
38
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
421
429
13t
87
99
O
0
0
142
0
O
ISO
200
IOO
4O
IOO
0
0
too
IOO
O
0
0
0
O
2OO
O
O
O
747
32O
64
254
57OO
)
CAR
rwn)
O
38
25
25
25
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
421
429
131
87
99
O
0
0
O
O
0
IOO
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
ISO
221
32
252
70O
3OO
32
20O
5700
SO
38
SO
50
SO
25
25
O
0
0
0
O
O
421
429
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
100
O
787
552
O
O
O
O
57OO
too
38
75
75
75
SO
SO
0
O
2O
2O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
0
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
0
7B7
652
O
O
O
O
57OO
too
38
75
75
75
SO
50
O
O
5O
50
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
587
532
0
O
O
0
570O
«6O
38
IOO
IOO
100
75
75
50
5O
50
50
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
0
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
57OO
16O
38
125
125
125
8O
SO
5O
5O
5O
5O
3O
20
O
O
r»
r\
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
0
O
0
57OO
too
38
175
175
170
8O
SO
5O
50
75
75
50
50
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
57OO
so
O
293
293
292
8O
SO
50
50
75
75
50
SO
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
570O
so
0
261
261
261
IOO
IOO
75
75
10O
IOO
70
7O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
57OO
SO
0
261
261
261
IOO
IOO
75
75
IOO
100
70
7O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
5700
so
O
239
239
239
IOO
IOO
75
75
IOO
100
75
75
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
57OO
O
O
239
239
239
IOO
100
75
75
1OO
1OO
75
75
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
57OO
*
O
O
192
192
193
1OO
IOO
75
75
IOO
100
75
75
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
57OO
o
O
185
185
185
75
75
50
50
75
75
50
50
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
o
0
0
o
o
o
o
o
0
0
o
o
0
57OO
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
HONDA
LAST UPDATE 12-18-8O
(UNITS X1OOO)
CAFE STANDARDS
ENG
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4T .
L-4T
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
CID
76
79
91
107
107
79
79
91
91
91
L
.2
.3
.5
.8
.8
.3
.3
.5
.5
.5
BD
C
C
C
A
P
A
P
C
A
P
TR
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
M
A
A
OR
r
F
F
F
F
F
F
f
F
F
MPG
33
33
31
27
27
32
32
49
49
49
79
60
O
65
39
26
O
O
O
O
O
2O
80
O
65
6O
39
26
O
0
O
O
0
22
81
O
65
6O
39
26
O
O
O
O
O
24
82
O
65
60
39
26
0
O
O
O
O
26
83
O
65
6O
29
2O
10
6
O
0
O
27
84
O
65
6O
24
16
15
to
O
O
O
27.5
85
0
65
6O
24
13
15
13
O
O
O
29
86
O
65
SO
2O
13
19
13
10
0
0
3O.5
87
0
65
45
2O
13
19
13
«5
O
0
32
88
O
65
45
18
1O
21
16
15
O
O
33.5
89
O
55
4O
18
10
21
16
30
0
O
35
9O
O
4O
3O
15
1O
24
16
55
O
O
36.5
91
O
4O
2O
10
5
19
10
65
1O
11
38
92
O
40
1O
O
O
19
1O
75
20
16
TOTAL: 19O
19O
19O
19O
190
19O
19O
19O
19O
19O
19O
19O
CAFE PROJECTIONS
3.5
93
O
4O
O
O
O
19
1O
85
2O
16
19O 19O 19O
41 42.5
94 95
O
4O
O
O
O
19
1O
85
2O
16
19O
O
3O
O
O
O
19
10
95
2O
16
19O
A-ACCORD
C-CIVIC
P-PRELUDE
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
VW
LAST UPDATE 12-18-BO
(UNITS X10OO)
CAFE STANDARDS
ENG
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4 '
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4D
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TD
L-4TO
HO- 4
HO-4
CID L
89
97
97
97
97
97
9O
90
90
9O
90
90
9O
9O
90
97
.5
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
12O 2.O
BD
R
C
D
J
R
S
B
D
J
R
B
D
J
R
S
C
B
TR
A
A
A
A
A
A
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
A
A
DR
F
f
F
F
F
F
R
F
F
F
R
F
F
F
F
R
R
MPG
28
27
27
28
27
27
4O
46
46
46
4O
46
46
46
46
26
19
79
75
O
1O
O
91
2O
O
1O
O
50
O
O
0
O
O
11
18
2O
BO
50
11
1O
16
5O
2O
0
1O
0
1OO
O
O
0
O
O
O
18
22
81
50
11
1O
16
50
2O
O
1O
O
75
O
0
O
25
O
O
18
24
82
30
11
1O
8
5O
2O
O
1O
8
95
O
O
O
25
0
O
18
26
83
3O
11
1O
6
50
1O
O
1O
5
85
O
O
5
35
10
O
18
27
84
5O
11
1O
6
O
10
O
5
5
85
O
5
5
65
10
O
18
27.5
85
50
11
5
5
O
1O
9
5
5
75
O
1O
6
75
1O
0
9
29 30.5
86
5O
11
5
5
O
5
6
5
5
75
6
10
6
75
15
O '
6
87
4O
11
5
5
0
5
9
5
5
8O
9
1O
6
8O
15
O
O
32
88
3O
11
5
5
O
5
9
5
5
85
9
1O
6
85
15
O
0
TOTAL: 285 285
285
285 285
285
285 285
285
33.5
89
25
11
5
5
O
O
9
5
5
85
9
1O
6
90
2O
O
O
285 285
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
90 91 92 93
25
11
5
5
O
0
9
5
5
85
9
1O
6
9O
20
O
O
285
20
11
5
5
O
O
9
5
5
90
9
10
6
90
20
O
O
285
15
11
5
5
O
0
9
5
5
95
9
1O
6
9O
2O
O
O
285
1O
11
5
5
O
O
9
5
5
95
9
1O
6
95
2O
O
O
285
41 42.5
94 95
5
11
5
5
O
O
9
5
5
1OO
9
1O
6
95
2O
O
O
285
O
1 1
5
5
O
O
9
5
5
1OO
9
1O
6
1OO
20
O
O
285
8-BUS
C-CONVERTIBLE
D-DASHER
J-JETTA
R-RABBIT
S-SCIROCCO
-------
LIGHT TRUCK SCENARIOS
1. The methodology used in generating the light truck scenario is generally the
same as was used in generating the automotive scenario except for the
following changes:
a. CAFE would be 22 mpg in 1985, 27 mpg in 1990, and 32 mpg in 1995.
b. 8- and 6-cylinder engines were optimized.
2. Scenario Assumptions for Companies
A. Scenario Assumptions for Chrysler
(1) FWD K-pickup introduced in 1984
FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1982 based on J-chassis
(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(a) 22% FWD
78% RWD
(b) 69% gas engines
31% diesel engines
(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(a) 47% FWD
53% RWD
(b) 29% gas engines
71% diesel engines
RATH & STRONG
INCOMPORATCO
-------
(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(a) 93%FWD
7% RWD
(b) 4% gas engines
96% diesel engines
B. Scenario Assumptions for Ford
(1) RWD pickup in 1985 (Ranger)
FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1990
(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(a) 100% RWD
(b) 100% gas engines
(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(a) 100% FWD
(b) 100% gas engines
(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(a) 100% FWD
(b) 11% gas engines
89% diesel engines
C. Scenario Assumptions for General Motors
(1) FWD mini-pickup introduced in 1988
RATH & STRONG
INCOMFOMATCO
-------
(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(a) 100% RWD
(b) 100% gas engines
(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(a) 96%FWD
4% RWD
(b) 76% gas engines
24% diesel engines
(4) Fleet sales in 1995 as follows:
(a) 100% FWD
(b) 13% gas engines
87% diesel engines
D. Scenario Assumptions for International Harvester
(1) International will drop the light trucks to concentrate on heavier
trucks.
(2) Fleet sales in 1985 as follows:
(a) 100% RWD
(b) 53% gas engines
47% diesel engines
(3) Fleet sales in 1990 as follows:
(a) 10.0% RWD
(b) 16% gas engines
84% diesel engines
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
MPG STANDARDS
CAFE
LIGHT TRUCK
Combined
2-Wheel Drive
4-Wheel Drive
1983
19
19.5
17.5
1984
20
20.3
18.5
1985
21
21.6
19.0
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
CHRYSLER-2WD TRUCKS
LAST UPDATE 12-23-flO
(UNITS X1000)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG CID L BD TR DR MPG
L-4
L-4
L-4
L-4D
L-6
L-6
L-6 '
L-6
L-6
L-6D
L-6D
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-B
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
11O 1
121 2
156 2
11O 1
225 3
225 3
225 3
225 3
225 3
243 4
243 4
318 5
318 5
318 5
318 5
318 5
36O 5
36O 5
36O 5
36O 5
36O 5
.8 C
O M4
.6 M4
.8 C
.7 C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
.O C1
.O C2
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
.9 C1
,9 C2
.9 C3
.9 C4
.9 C5
A
M
M
A
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
F
R
R
F
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
26
25
23
33
2O
2O
19
19
2O
26
26
16
17
16
15
16
16
16
16
16
16
79
O
O
O
O
31
3
O
O
16
1
1
45
8
2
O
67
17
12
5
2
62
16
BO
0
O
O
O
31
3
O
O
16
1
1
45
8
2
0
67
17
12
5
2
62
ta
81
0
2O
2O
O
35
5
O
O
1O
11
11
40
10
1O
1O
50
1O
1O
O
0
2O
19
82
O
24
23
O
35
10
to
10
1O
2O
15
35
1O
10
10
5O
O
O
0
0
O
2O
83
O
3O
3O
O
42
1O
15
15
15
22
2O
18
10
1O
to
25
0
O
0
0
O
21
84
6O
O
O
O
47
15
20
2O
2O
25
25
15
5
5
5
1O
0
O
O
O
O
22
85
79
O
0
O
35
5
15
15
15
42
4 1
5
5
5
5
5
O
O
0
O
O
23
86
75
O
O
10
3O
5
12
10
10
50
5O
5
O
5
5
5
O
0
0
0
O
24
87
75
0
O
to
3O
5
12
10
1O
60
60
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
25
88
65
0
0
20
2O
5
7
B
7
70
70
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
26
B9
65
O
O
47
2O
O
0
O
O
7O
7O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
27
90
6O
O
O
67
20
O
O
O
O
60
65
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
28
91
5O
0
0
1OO
1O
O
O
O
O
56
56
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
29
92
4O
C
O
13O
O
O
O
O
O
51
51
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
30
93
30
O
0
172
O
O
0
O
O
35
35
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
31
94
2O
0
O
202
O
O
O
O
O
25
25
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
32
95
10
O
O
242
O
O
O
0
O
10
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
TOTAL: 272
272
272 272
272 272
272 272
272
272
272
272
272
272
272
272
272
C -MINI PICKUP
C1-D1OO
C2-D2OO
C3-D30O
C4-RAMCHARGER
C5-TRADESMAN
M4-D5O.ARROW PICKUP
-------
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
FORD-2WD TRUCKS
LAST UPDATE 12-23-8O
(UNITS X1OOO)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENG
L-4
L-4
L-40
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
V-8
V-B
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
CID L BD
1 1O 1.8 C
11O 1.8 CX
11O 1.8 CX
3OO 5.O F1
3OO 5.O F2
300 5.0 F3
3OO 5.O F4
3O2 5.O F1
351 5.8 F1
351 5.8 F2
351 5.8 F3
351 5.8 F4
4OO 6.6 F1
4OO 6.6 F2
4OO 6.6 F3
4OO 6.6 F4
TR
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
. A
A
DR
R
F
F
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
MPG
27
27
33
22
22
22
22
19
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
79
O
O
O
123
1O
4
83
117
177
82
45
160
44
2O
11
4O
16
8O
O
O
O
123
10
4
83
117
177
82
45
16O
44
2O
1 1
4O
18
81
IS
O
O
125
25
16
95
126
177
82
45
16O
15
15
5
15
19
82
35
O
0
16O
55
46
ISO
140
120
7O
3O
110
O
0
O
O
2O
83
50
0
0
19O
85
76
170
ISO
70
4O
2O
65
O
O
O
O
21
84
7O
O
O
210
1O5
96
19O
ISO
35
2O
10
3O
0
O
O
O
22
85
12O
O
O
225
12O
111
2O5
135
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
23
86
220
O
0
215
11O
1O1
20O
7O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
24
87
44O
O
O
170
7O
70
145
21
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
25
88
6OO
O
O
1OO
55
61
1OO
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
26
89
761
O
O
50
25
3O
50
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
27
9O
0
916
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
28
91
O
700
216
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
29
92
O
55O
366
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
3O
93
0
40O
516
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
31
94
O
25O
666
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
32
95
O
1OO
816
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
TOTAL: 916
916 916
916
916 916
916
916
916
916
916
916 916 916 916 916 916
C -COURIER
F1-RANCHERO.F-15O
F2-F-25O
F3-F-35O
F4-ECONOLINE.CLUBWAGON
-------
ENG
CID L BD TR DR MPG 79
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
GM-2WD TRUCKS
LAST UPDATE 12-23-BO
(UNITS XtOOO)
CAFE STANDARDS
16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BO 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
CAFE PROJECTIONS
27 28 29 3O 31 32
9O 91 92 93 94 95
L-4
L-4
L-4D
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
L-6
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-B
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
11O 1.8 LV
11O 1.8 LV
ItO 1.8 LV
25O 4.
25O 4.
25O 4.
250 4.
25O 4.
25O 4.
3O5 5.
305 5.
3O5 5.
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G1
G4
G5
35O 5.8 G1
35O 5.8 G2
35O 5.8 G3
35O 5.8 G4
35O 5.8 G5
35O 5.8 G6
4OO 6.6 G1
4OO 6.6 G2
4OO 6.6 G3
4OO 6.6 G4
4 CO 6.6 G5
4OO 6.6 G6
A
A
A
M
M
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
R
F
F
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
26
26
33
2O
20
2O
2O
21
21
17
17
18
16
16
16
16
16
16
14
14
14
14
14
14
O
O
O
99
12
6
1
43
7
97
7
29
288
104
62
50
169
191
72
26
16
13
42
48
O
O
O
99
12
6
1
43
7
97
7
29
288
1O4
62
50
169
191
72
26
16
13
42
48
SO
O
O
2O5
75
75
75
10O
27
1BO
3O
60
170
5O
3O
25
1 1O
12O
O
O
O
0
0
O
1OO
O
0
25O
1OO
1OO
1OO
150
62
18O
3O
6O
85
25
15
1O
55
6O
O
O
O
O
O
0
2OO
O
O
3OO
125
125
125
2OO
62
9O
15
3O
4O
10
O
O
30
3O
0
O
O
0
O
O
4OO
O
O
25O
11O
1 1O
11O
165
52
9O
15
3O
2O
0
0
O
15
15
0
O
O
0
O
O
60O
O
O
2OO
1OO
100
10O
14O
42
45
1O
15
1O
O
O
0
10
1O
O
0
O
O
O
0
BOO
O
O
155
75
75
65
125
27
4O
1O
1O
O
0
0
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
1000
O
O
125
50
5O
5O
67
2O
2O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
12OO
O
5O
25
25
25
37
1O
10
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
1100
192
35
15
15
15
10
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
1OOO
327
25
1O
1O
10
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
850
522
10
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
7OO
682
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
525
O
35O
O
175
857 1O32 12O7
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
TOTAL: 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 13B2 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382
LV-LUV
G1-EL CAMINO.C10
G2-C20
G3-C3O
G4-SUBURBAN.BLAZER
G5-SPORTVAN.CARAVAN
G6-P SERIES
-------
ENG CIO L BO TR OR MPG
79
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
INTERNATIONAL-2WO TRUCKS
LAST UPDATE 12-23-8O
(UNITS X1)
CAFE STANDARDS
16 IB 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BO 81 82 83 B4 85 86 87 88 89
CAFE PROJECTIONS
27 28 29 3O 31 32
9O 91 92 93 94 95
L-4
L-4
L-6D
L-6D
V-8
V-8
V-8
V-8
196
196
198
198
3O4
, 3O4
345
345
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
5.O
5.0
5.7
5.7
11
12
11
12
11
12
11
12
M
M
M
M
A
A
A
A
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
20
20
3O
3O
16
16
15
15
67
76
25
41
195
739
48
185
67
76
25
41
195
739
48
185
10O
1OO
115
116
2OO
745
O
0
175
175
163
163
10O
6OO
O
O
185
185
215
216
1OO
475
O
O
185
185
240
316
75
375
O
O
175
175
291
360
5O
325
0
O
125
125
366
435
25
30O
O
0
125
125
366
500
25
235
O
0
IOO
10O
391
585
25
175
O
0
75
75
4)6
655
25
13O
O
O
5O
50
441
7 2O
25
90
O
O
25
25
466
775
25
6O
O
O
25
25
481
32O
1O
15
O
O
0
O
516
86O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
0
O
TOTAL: 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376 1376
II-TERRA
I2-SCOUT 11.TRAVELER
-------
IMPORT CARS - LIGHT TRUCK
PROJECTION BASED ON
MEETING THE CAFE STANDARDS
AND THE PROJECTED STANDARDS
BY
COMPANY
AND
MODEL
ASSUMING NO NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OR CONFIGURATION CHANGES TO
MEET USA CAFE STANDARDS
RATH & STRONG
INCORFORATCD
-------
tamoiivf A far market Newt Show Daily. March 10, 1981
stributors Institute speaker
(any foreign car manufacturers
in't meet U. S. CAFE averages
>RAKE HOTELRoy Lindgren. part-
in the Boston-based automotive consult-
firm of Rath & Strong, 'told members
the Distributors Institute during the first
lion of this organization's Spring meet-
here, that many foreign car manufactur-
do not have at this time a car fleet cap-
able of meeting the U.S. Government Cor-
porate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
requirements that all U.S. car manufactur-
er* have spent billions of dollars to meet.
Flatly predicting that the mighty General
Motors "will cat the Japanese alive" a few
years down the road with its brilliantly
planned Heel of cars designed to average
considerably more than 27.5 miles per
gallon by 1985, Lindgren emphasized that
development might have a profound effect
upon the car buying public when the gas
mileage truth becomes apparent.
U.S. CAFF requirements, noted Lind-
gren, progress from 20 miles per gallon on
a Heel average basis in 1980 to 27.5 miles
on I he same average basis in 1985.
According to Lindgren. computer pro-
jections clearly show that few European
and Japanese car manufacturers can meet
licit standard with present fleets.
Although conceding that foreign car
manufacturers still have time to retool for
a new line of cars that could meet such
sliuul.irds. l.nulgrcn cited the tremendous
tooling costs involved thai h.isc already
tli-ali severe financial blows to every U.S.
car manufacturer.
Using (he G. M. car line as a comparison
standard. Lindgren reviewed the various
makes and models of both U.S. and foreign
vehicles lo prove his claim.
Conceding that the Japanese have had
everything their way up to dale. Lindgren
pointed out some very difficult problems
Ih.ii car manufacturers in Japan will have
lo lace once General Motors places all of
iis lines of fuel-cfficienl cars on (he market.
When that finally happens, this consul-
tant noted, we might see some very drama-
tic changes in car buying habits
Roy LJodtrcB
Ford Motor Company.said Lindgren. is
one entire downsizing step behind General
Motors. This will mean that they will suf-
fer greatly before they catch up. From a
product line standpoint. Lindgren said.
Chrysler is actually in a belter position
because it has already completed its major
downsizing step. All fumic Chrysler cars
will be built on the K-car chassis utili/mg
engines and driveliocs from these vehicles.
AMC. said Lindgren. is depending upon
Renault, and will base all of us future
vehicles on this company's lines.
According to Lindgren. the increased use
of plastics in CiM automobile bodies', the
introduction of more four and three cylin-
der power plants, all designed with fuel in-
jecnon. electronically controlled ignitions
and fuel management system*, and installed
in cars with total weights of around 2.IMK)
pounds, will make General Motors cars the
acknowledged winners of the mileage race.
The Japanese car manufacturers won't
be in a position to compete unh Heel aver-
ages that Gcner.il Motors will be able to
generate, says I indgren. and uc may see
some real change* in the market place.
-------
SCENARIO/AIM (O7/3O/BO)
TM TursriAY AUCUST »?.
vnuciE PRODUCTION SCFNAPIO
nv rwaiNF sm
Air A ROMrn
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
ENQ
1-4
1-4
L-4
CIO
«2O
«2O
12O
L BO
2.0 1
2.0 2
2.O 3
YR OR
A R
M R
M R
MPG
21
21
2O
79
27OO
65O
65O
20
RO
27OO
65O
fi5O
22
H 1
O
O
O
24
R2
O
O
O
2fi
R3
O
O
O
27
R4
O
O
O
27.5
R5
0
O
O
7«»
OR
o
0
o
30.5
R7
0
O
O
32
nn
o
0
o
33.5
R,
O
o
o
35
"O
O
O
O
r»r, .5
Q 1
O
O
0
3H
9?
O
O
O
39.5
93
O
O
O
4 1
94
O
O
O
42.5
95
0
O
O
TOTAL: 4OOO 4OOO
O
O
O
O
O
O
n
o
1 -SPORT SEDAN
2 -SPIDER VELOCE
3 -SPRINT VELOCE
-------
SCENARIO/AUDI IO7/3I/80)
3:3? PM TtirnoAY A;jr,ur>T i?. tgso
VFM1CIF. PRODUCTION SCFNARin
BY FNHINF
AtlOl
("AFF STANDARDS
ENO
1-4
L-4
L-5
CID
97
97
131
L 80
1.6 t
1.6 2
2. 1 3
TR OR
M r
M F
A F
MPG
23
23
2O
79
20
O
23
?O 77
RO Rl
O O
25 3O
1fl 13
74
R7
O
O
O
76
R3
O
O
O
77 7/.S 79 3O.5
R4
O
O
O
R5
O
O
O
Rfi
o
o
O
R7
O
O
O
37 nn.5
RR Rl
o o
0 0
o o
CAFF PROJECT fONS
3«i nfi.5 3R
1O "1 97
O O O
O O O
O 0 0
39.5
93
0
O
O
41
94
O
O
O
42.5
95
O
O
O
TOTAL:
43
43
43
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
i -rox
2 -aooo
3 -5000
-------
SCENARIO/AUSTIN (O7/3O/8O)
3:33 PM HIF'-.nAV. M.T.UST 12.
PRODUCTION SCfNARIO
RV FNGINF Sl?r
AUSTIN (MG)
CNG CID L BO Tit OR MPG
L-4 91 1.5 1 M R 2O
L-4 11O 1.8 2 M R 20
TOTAL:
79
13
13
20
BO
O
76
22
R1
O
O
CAFE STANDARDS
24 26
R2 R3
O O
O O
77
R4
0
O
27.5
H*
O
O
79
R6
O
0
3O.5
B7
O
O
32
8*
O
O
33.5
R9
O
O
CATC PROJECTIONS
3r> 3*. 5 3fl 39.
5
9O 91 97 93
0 0 O
0 O O
O
O
41
94
O
O
42.5
95
O
O
7fi
O
O
O
O
O
O
1 -MIDGET
2 -MOB
-------
SCENARIO/BUM IO7/3O/8O)
3:3.1 TM TUFSn/W. AUfiUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCT ION SCENARIO
BY FNGINf SI7E
fNQ CIO I 80 TR OR MPQ 79
1-4
CAff STANDARDS
2O 22 24 26 27 77.5 29 3O.5 32 33.5
SO HI 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
CAfE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
1O8 1.9
121 2.0
17O 2.8
196 3.2
196 3.2
1
1
2
3
4
A
A
A
A
A
R
R
R
R
R
23
22
2O
17
16
O
12
9
7
7
17
O
9
5
4
76
O
9
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
TOTAL;
35
35
35
O
O
O
1 -32OI
2 -5281
3 -6361
4 -7331
-------
SCENARIO/FERRARI (O7/30/8O)
TUESDAY. AUC.UST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCfNARIO
BY ENGINE 5I7F
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
EMO
v-i
V-8
v-i
CIO
179
179
179
1 80
3.O 1
3.O 2
3.0 3
TR OR MPG
MR 11
M R 11
MR 11
79
3OO
3OO
4OO
7O
60
O
O
O
27
81
O
O
O
24
R2
O
O
O
26
A3
O
O
O
27
84
O
O
O
27.5
B5
O
O
O
79
H6
0
O
O
30.5
R7
O
0
0
32
RR
O
O
O
33.5
R9
O
O
O
35
90
0
O
O
36.5
91
O
O
O
38
92
0
O
O
39.5
93
O
O
0
41
94
O
0
0
42.5
95
0
0
O
TOTAL: 1OOO
1 -01NO 3O8 674
2 -308 GTB
3 -SOB GTS
-------
SCENARIO/FIAT |O7/3O/§O)
3:34 PM tUrSOAV. AUGUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY FNGINE SI7E
r IAT
END CID I BO TR OR MPQ 79
CAFE STANDARDS
2O 22 24 26 27 77.5 29 3O.5 32 33.5
RO H1 82 83 «4 85 R6 «7 RR R9
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
t-
t-
t-
l-
l-
79 «.3 1 M 0 25
91 1.9 2 M R 31
91 1.5 3 A F 32
122 2.O 4 A F 25
122 2.0 5 A R 25
TOTAL:
11
10
13
15
«0
O
1O
20
19
1O
O
1O
2O
19
10
O
to
2O
19
10
O
10
20
19
1O
0
1O
2O
19
1O
O
10
22
17
10
O
IO
2R
11
IO
0
5
44
5
5
O
O
59
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
59
59
59
.59
59
59
59
59
59
O
1 -128
2 -K1/9
3 -STRADA
4 -8RAVA
S -SPIDER 2OOO
-------
SCENARIO/FUJI (O7/3I/8O)
:35 PM TUFSOAV. AUGUST 12, 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
RV ENGINE 5I7F
FUJI (SUHARU)
CAFE STANDARDS
CAfE PROJECTIONS
CWO CIO
HO-4 97
HO-4 97
HO-4 ' 97
« -01
2 -GL
3 -BRAT
L BO TR OR MPG
1.« 1 W r 31
1.6 2 A r 30
f.6 3 M 4 27
TOTAL:
79
6O
3O
38
128
2O
8O
6O
33
35
128
22
81
63
35
3O
128
24
82
65
38
25
128
26
83
65
4O
23
128
27
84
7O
4O
18
128
77.5
85
75
38
15
128
29
8fi
85
30
13
128
3O.5
87
93
23
12
128
32
88
O
O
O
O
33.5
89
O
O
O
O
35 36.5
«KJ 91
0 O
0 0
0 0
O O
38
92
O
O
O
O
39.5
93
O
O
O
0
41
94
O
0
0
O
42.5
95
O
O
O
0
-------
SCENARIO/JAGUAR (O7/31/BO)
3:36 PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12, 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
JAGUAR
CAFE STANDARDS
C*FE PROJECTIONS
ENO CIO L
L-6 258 4.2
V*«2 326 9.3
V-12 '326 5.3
BO TR
1 A
2 A
3 A
OR WPG
R 16
R 11
R 11
79
2
1
1
20
BO
O
O
O
22
81
O
0
O
24
02
O
O
O
26
83
0
O
O
27
04
O
O
O
77.5
85
O
O
O
29
86
O
O
O
3O.5
87
O
O
0
32
88
O
O
O
33.5
89
0
0
O
35
9O
O
O
O
36 5
91
O
O
O
38
92
O
O
O
39.5
93
O
O
O
41
94
O
O
O
42.5
95
O
0
0
TOTAL:
1 -XJ 6
2 -XJ 12
3 -XJ S
-------
SCCNARfO/LANCIA (O7/30/8O)
3:37 PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12. 1SBO
VEHICLE PRODUCT ION SCENARIO
BV ENGINE SI7E
LANCIA
CAFE STANDARDS
CAfE PROJECTIONS
NO
-4
t
2
CIO L BO
122 2.0 1
122 2.O 2
-BETA
-ZAGATO
TR DR MPQ
A R 21
A R 31
TOTAL :
79
1000
5OO
15OO
2O
HO
9OO
600
15OO
2?
81
BOO
70O
15OO
24
02
7OO
BOO
15OO
26
83
6OO
900
1500
27 J7.5
84 85
4OO 3OO
1100 1700
15OO 15OO
29
86
2OO
130O
150O
30.5
B7
0
15OO
150O
32
88
O
O
O
33.5
B9
O
O
O
35
90
O
O
O
36.5
91
O
O
O
38
92
O
0
O
39.5
93
O
O
O
41
94
O
O
0
42.3
93
O
0
0
-------
SCENARIO/MERCEDES IO7/3I/BO)
3:r?fl PM TUFSDAV. AUOUST 12. 198O
VFMICI.E PRODUCTION SCFNARIO
BV F.NGINF. SI7F
MERCFDFS-RFN?
CMQ CIO I BO TR OB KPO 79
CAFE STANDARDS
20 32 24 26 27
RO 81 R2 R3 04
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
*>O 91 92 93
1-4D
L-90
t-50
I -so
1-5TO
t-«
L-«
L-«
V-B
V-B
V-8
V-8
147
189
183
183
'183
168
168
168
276
276
276
417
2.4
3.0
3.O
3.O
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
6.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1O
11
12'
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
3O
25
25
25
26
16
16
16
14
14
14
12
1O
4
4
4
4
5
6
6
2
2
3
3
10
5
5
5
4
5
6
6
2
2
3
O
12
6
6
6
6
5
6
6
O
O
O
O
12
8
8
6
9
2
2
4
O
0
O
0
17
8
8
8
to
O
O
2
O
O
O
0
22
7
7
ft
9
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
27
6
6
6
R
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
43
2
2
2
4
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
TOTAL:
53
35
53
53
53
O
t -240 D
2 -3OO D
3 -3OO CO
4 -3OO SO
9 -300 TO
6 -280 E
7 -28O CE
8 -280 SE
9 -45O SEL
IO-450 SL
11-450 SLC
12-6.9 SEDAN
-------
SCENARIO/NISSAN (O7/3O/8O)
3: .Ifl PM TUESDAY, AUGUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
RV ENGINE SIZE
NISSAN IPATSUN)
CAFE STANDARDS
ENO CID L BO TR OR WPG
L- 76 1.3 1 M R 33
f 85 1.4 1 M R 32
t- 85 1.4 2 M B 3O
L- ' 91 1.5 1 R 30
L- M9 2.O 3 R 26
L- 119 2.O 4 R 25
t- 146 2.4 5 R 23
L-0 168 2.8 6 R 21
L-6 168 2.8 7 R Ifl
79
O
70
70
77
50
80
50
40
35
20
8O
25
7O
7O
77
5O
70
50
3O
3O
27
81
45
70
7O
77
50
60
50
75
25
24
82
6O
65
85
82
45
45
40
25
25
26
83
75
65
87
85
35
45
3O
25
25
27
84
10O
6O
87
85
3O
35
25
25
25
77.5
85
1OO
55
97
95
25
75
75
75
75
79
flfi
125
55
97
95
75
75
75
75
O
3O.5
87
7OO
SO
87
85
25
75
O
O
O
37
88
3OO
5O
62
60
0
O
O
O
O
33.5
89
472
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
GATE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 3B 39.5
1O 91 92 93
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
41
94
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
42.5
95
0
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
TOTAL: 472 477 472
472
472 477
472
477 472
472
477
1 -21O
a -310
3 -51O
4 -20O SX
9 -81O
« -28O 7*
7 -280 *X 2*2
-------
SCENARIO/PEUGEOT COT/30/80)
3:39 PM TUFSOAV. AUGUST 12. 198O
ENQ CIO L 80 TR OR WPO 79
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY FNC.INE SUE
PEUGEOT
CAFE STANDARDS
7O 22 24 26 27 27.5
BO 81 82 R3 R4 85
CAFE PROJECTIONS
32 33.5 35 36.5 38 39.5
8B B9 9O 91 92 93
1 A
2 A
3 A
4 A
5 A
R
R
R
R
R
19
18
29
29
15
9
O
5
O
2
O
5
O
5
2
0
4
O
7
1
O
4
O
a
o
0
2
0
»o
o
o
1
o
11
o
o
1
o
11
0
o
0
o
t2
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
9
o
0
o
TOTAL:
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
1 -904
2 -505
3 -50*0
4 -9050
9 -604
-------
SCENARIO/ROLLS (O7/3O/8O)
3:39 PM TUFSOAY. AUGUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SUE
ROLLS ROYCE
ENQ CIO L BO TR OR MPd 79
CAfE STANDARDS
2O 22 24 26 27 27.5 29 3O.5
RO 81 82 83 04 fl5 R6 B7
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
V-B 412 8.8 f R 1 20O O O O O
V-8 412 9.8 2 R 1 2OO O O O O
V-8 412 «.B 3 R 1 2OO O 0 O O
V-8 412 «.8 4 R 1 2OO O O O O
V-B 412 6.8 5 R 1 2OO O O O O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0 O
O O
0 0
0 0
0 0
TOTAL: 1OOO
1 -SILVER SHADOW 11
2 -SILVER WRAITH II
3 -CORNICHE COUPE
4 -CORNICHE CONVERTIBLE
9 -CAMARGUE
-------
SCENARIO/MAZDA (07/31/80}
3:41 PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
0V ENRINF. SI7E
TOVO KOr.vn (MAZDA)
CNQ C1D L 80 TR OR
ROTARY 7O 1.1 1 A R 21
L-4 86 1.4 2 A R 33
L-4 .00 1.4 a A r 35
1-4 120 2.O 3 A R 27
79
CAFE STANDARDS
2O 22 24 26 27 27.5
8O 81 82 83 14 flS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
24 3O.5 32 33.5 H5 36.5 36 39.5 41 42.5
R6 87 66 89 9O 91 92 93 94 95
45
85
O
27
45
O
85
27
4O
O
9O
27
35
O
90
32
30
O
95
32
25
O
95
37
20
O
95
42
15
O
1OO
42
1O
O
too
47
O
O
110
47
O
O
137
2O
0
0
157
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
O
0
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
O
TOTAL: 157
157
157
157
157
157
157
157
157
157
«57
157
1 -RX 7
a -OLC
3 -626
-------
SCENARIO/TOYOTA (O7/31/80)
3:41 PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
. TOYOTA
CAFE STANDARDS
*
CNO CIO L BO TR OR MPG
L-4 71 1.9 1
L-4 89 1.9 2
L-4 ' 97 1.9 1
L-4 1O8 1.8 1
L-4 134 2.2 3
L-4 134 2.2 4
L-6 156 2.6 9
L-6 156 2.6 6
R
r
R
R
R
R
R
R
91
3O
26
27
20
22
21
21
TOTAL:
1 -COROLLA
9 -TCRCCL - ***!>
3 -CORONA
4 -CCLICA
9 -CRESSIOA
6 -SUPRA
?. ^7VF^*-£ T- f**«
P
79
130
O
108
0
60
60
75
75
508
20
SO
O
13O
O
1O8
6O
6O
75
75
5OR
22
81
O
150
0
128
4O
4O
75
75
SOB
24
82
O
190
O
158
20
2O
60
60
508
26
83
O
23O
O
158
2O
1O
40
50
SOB
27
84
0
26O
O
158
O
0
4O
SO
508
27.5
85
O
330
O
128
0
O
0
50
SOB
29
86
O
430
O
78
O
0
0
O
SOB
3O.5
87
O
SOB
O
O
O
O
O
0
508
32
88
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
33.5
89
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O-
0
0
O
O
0
O
41
94
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
42.9
95
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
-------
SCfNABlO/TIMUWPM (O7/31/BO)
3:41 PM TUESOAV. AUOUST 1*. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
TRIUMPH
CAFf STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
CNO
1-4
L-4
v-i
CIO
91
122
1 215
L 80 TR OR MPQ
1.5 1 H R 26
a.o a M R 22
3.9 3 A R 18
79
0
7
O
20
8O
4
6
3
22
81
5
5
3
24
82
9
3
1
26
83
13
O
O
27
84
O
O
O
27.5
85
O
O
O
29
86
O
O
O
3O.5
87
O
0
O
32
88
O
O
O
33.5
89
0
O
O
35
9O
O
O
O
36.5
91
O
O
0
38
92
O
O
O
39.5
93
0
0
0
41
94
0
O
0
42.5
95
0
O
O
TOTAL:
13
13
13
f -SUTFIRf
3 -TR7
9 -TR8
-------
SCENARIO/SAAB (O7/31/§0)
3:4O PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12. 1980
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
RY ENGINE SIZE
SAAB
L-« 121 2.0 1
1-4) 121 2.O 2
L-4T 121 2.O 3
TOTAL:
15
CAFE STANDARDS
CAFE PROJECTIONS
R OR KPO
A R 29
A R 21
A R 22
79
3
1O
2
20
8O
5
8
2
22
81
5
5
5
24
82
15
O
O
26
83
O
O
O
27
84
0
O
O
27.5
85
O
O
O
29
86
O
O
O
3O.5
87
O
O
0
32
88
O
O
O
33.5
89
O
O
O
35
90
0
O
O
36.5
91
0
O
b
38
92
0
0
o
39.5
93
O
O
O
41
94
O
0
O
42.5
95
C
O
O
15
15
1 -tf
2 -TOO
3 -9OO TURBO
-------
SCENARIO/VOLVO (O7/31/80)
3:42 PM TUESDAY. AUHUST 12. 198O
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENGINE SIZE
VOLVO
ENQ CIO L BO TR DR MPQ
CAFE STANDARDS
24 26 27 27.5
02 83 84 85
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
t-4
t-4
V-S
v-e
V-S
V-6
130 2.1
ISO 2.1
163 2.7
163 2.7
174 2.8
174 2.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
R
R
R
R
R
R
22
22
19
19
19
19
20
O
18
18
O
O
O
20
0
O
IB
18
0
56
O
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
TOTAL:
56
56
56
1 -24O
2 -OL SEDAN
9 -26O SEDAN
4 -626 C
9 -GLE COUPE
6 -COUPE
-------
SCENARIO/PORSCHE (07/3O/8O)
VEHICLE PRODUCTION SCENARIO
BY ENOINF SIZE
PORSCHE
3:42 PM TUESDAY. AUGUST 12. 1980
ENO CID L BO TR DR MPQ 79
CAFE STANDARDS
20 22 24 26 27 27.5 29 3O.5
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87
CAFE PROJECTIONS
35 36.5 38 39.5
9O 91 92 93
1-4 121 2.O 1
L-4T 121 2.O 2
MO-6 183 3.O 3
HO-6T 2O1 3.3 4
V-8 273 4.5 5
A R
M R
M R
M R
A R
20
2O
18
16
14
7
O
3
1
3
7
7
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
TOTAL:
14
(4
I -t24
2 -924T
3 -911
4 -TURBO
5 -928
-------
ISSN 0190 - 4175
Management News and Technical Developments in the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Industry
TU
Published by the Downtown/Urban Research Center
270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Telephone (212) 889-5666
£fig£S
'Pv.
v^
Plugging Into The Future; An Interview With Leroy H. Lindgren
"I try to put myself in the future and look backwards into the present,"
Leroy H. Lindgren, Vice President of Rath § Strong, management consultants, says.
"This separates me from the econometrics school which can only think about the
future in terms of the past."
Mr. Lindgren, who's in charge of new product development for Rath & Strong,
aired his vision of the automobile's future in an exclusive EV Progress interview.
He has developed a computer model of the American automobile industry which analyzes
the impact of Government regulations and technical requirements on the industry.
EVs, says Lindgren, enter the American auto industry's future largely by virtue of
the CAFE inclusion credit. General Motors will be the only one of the big three
mass producing EVs by 1990, he predicts. His Manufacturing Assessment Model and
System breaks down the 1990 GM passenger car types as follows:
Projected General Motors 1990 Passenger Car Fleet
EV
1.500_*
85-185*
S'
1,700
52
'J'
2,200
43/45
'X'
2,700
25/35
'A'
3,000
22/28
K'
3,500
22/28
C'
3,700
22/28
Model:
Weight:
MPG:
EV -- Two-passenger urban commuter car.
'S1 Two-passenger urban car; possibly three-cylinder or diesel engine.
'J' Four-passenger family car; essentially chopped 'X'.
'X1 Five-passenger family car; updated version of today's Citation,
Skylark, etc.
Six-passenger family car; tomorrow's Malibu.
Five-passenger luxury car; tomorrow's Seville.
-- Five-passenger personal car; tomorrow's Toronado, Eldorado, etc.
'A'
'K'
'C'
*MPG equivalency figure has not been finalized.
By 1990, the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standard will probably
be pegged at 35 mpg. "At that CAFE level, GM's going to have problems," Lindgren
began, "because the fJ' car will be the center of the car population, and they'll
have to be producing a lot of 'S' cars to meet the requirement." The following
graph was produced to illustrate his point.
"The lower mpg cars are much more profitable than those little 'S' cars.
But if you want to optimize profits, then you have to make fewer of the 'S1 cars and
make the \X' car the center of the car population, not the 'J1." The shaded bars of
the graph show this method. How is General Motors going to accomplish this shift?
"The electric car has the option of shifting this profile. It won't be built with
-4-
-------
TWO WTHODS Kl CtMCML NOTOM TO *TT lt*0 CAFt
Q Without tTi. CM hu CO
product let* of 'S' ctrt
which trt >ot wry prorlt-
blt mi '}' c«r caatril.
fl With tV crtdll. cot M
ny 't' c«ri, ftwtr 'J'i
tod 'X* ear cantrtl. Alto
c« product Bor* «
-------
put their DC to AC converter into a Cordoba, which weighed 4,200 pounds to begin
with, and added another 200 pounds by hybriding it. Nevertheless, it did go from 17
mpg to 27.5 mpg, which was a big, quantum jump two or three years ago. But then
they said, 'let's put a diesel in that Cordoba, a six-cylinder diesel, and see what
happens.' The diesel came in at 25 mpg, so the $600 worth of electronic equipment
doesn't really make much sense for two more mpg. Exxon has a whole lot of applica-
tions for the synthesizer which are non-automotive. I'm not sure whether they care
all that much whether their hybrid flies or not."
Getting back to EVs. It is your view that EVs are being legislated into
existence? "Yes, no question about it. If you'd wait for the 'real market1 econo-
mies to take effect, they'd never be produced, but through the CAFE inclusion they
will. There's an additional legislative mechanism which, to my mind, will have an
impact on EVs. Large automobiles are going to be banned from all large center
cities. The only kind of vehicles which will be allowed there are two-passenger
models, such as the 'S1 and electrics. There are a few reasons for this: air
pollution considerations and the 'S' will be exquisirely clean, the present
automobile fleet is an almost total misuse of urban space, and finally something has
to be done about the 1.3 passenger problem 1.3 passengers being the average
occupancy of an American automobile and the EV can and will make a significant
contribution in this area."
-------
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES
WORLDWIDE
COMPANY TIME PERIOD $ BILLIONS
1. G. M. 1980 - 1985 $38.0
2. FORD 1980 - 1985 $20.0
3. CHRYSLER 1980 - 1985 $13.6
4. AMC 1980 - 1985 $ 3.0
TOTAL ALL FOUR COMPANIES $74.6
»"»«»««»««<
RATH & STRONG ESTIMATE
(LESS INFLATION)
FOR 35 MPG 1985 - 1990 $55.0
FOR 42.5 MPG 1990 - 1995 $20.0
TOTAL $75.0
INCLUDES TOOLING AND FACILITIES INVESTMENTS .
RATH & STRONG
INCORPORATED
-------
RATH * STRONG INC. GMC-A SCENARIO
INVESTMENT SUMMARY REPORT BY YEAR SCALE - 1000
TOOLING & EQUIPMENT
YEARS
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1981
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1991
INVESTMENTS
0
356619
2381150
1872625
113112
719558
896762
796115
371237
777511
562319
698550
375810
52808
0
0
TOTAL INVESTMENTS 10280899
MPG.
85
27,5
90
35.0
95
12.5
------- |