ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE
 COMMITMENT: AN APPLICATION To
   THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

  Office of Radiation Programs

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ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE
COMMITMENT:   AN APPLICATION TO
THE NUCLEAR  POWER INDUSTRY
                  February 1974
                Revised June 1974
    U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
            Office of Radiation Programs
           Criteria and Standards Division
              Washington, D.C. 20460

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                                FOREWORD
    All levels of government and industry are faced with  the  challenge



of  responding affirmatively and fairly to the reality of public demands



for action to improve the quality of the environment and the quality  of



life.    These  demands  come  from  a  new  general  awareness  of  the



degradation we have inflicted on our surroundings and from a fear we may



destroy ourselves if degrading trends are  not  reversed..   Concern  for



quality  of  life  also  stems  from an increasing emphasis on human and



social values, and it is clear that a quality of life ethic  has  become



deeply   ingrained  in  our  society  and  that  a  growing  demand  for



maintaining and improving the quality of the environment is a  principal



component of that ethic.



    The  Of fide  of  Radiation Programs presents this report in the hope



that the concept of "environmental dose  commitment"  will  serve  as  a



useful  tool  to assist evaluation of the potential environmental impact



of alternative energy sources.  It should be noted, however,  that  such



discussion  is  beyond the scope of the present report.  A comprehensive



analyses of alternative energy sources  will  require,  in  addition  to



assessments  of  the  impacts  of  the variety of environmental releases



associated with normal operations (such as the long-lived  radionuclides



addressed  here);  assessments  of  the  impacts due to mining and waste



disposal, and of safety - both public  and  occupational.   Comments  on


                                     • • •
                                    111

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this  report  are  welcomed.   These  should  be  sent  to the Director,

Criteria and Standards Division of the Office of Radiation Programs (HM-

560).
                                             W.D.  Rowe,  Ph.D.
                                      Deputy Assistant Administrator
                                          for Radiation  Programs
                                     IV

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                                PREFACE
    An analysis of the consequences of the discharge  and  dispersal  of



long-lived  radionuclides  into  the  general  environment  is  one of a



variety of considerations required  in  the  setting  of  standards  for



radiation  protection.   By  virtue  of  the  long  persistence of these



materials these consequences may extend over many  generations  and,  in



this  respect, these discharges can represent irreversible public health



commitments.



    We have developed the concept of "environmental dose commitment"  to



encompass   the   radiation   doses   to  populations  implied  by  this



irreversibility, extended it to include  the  calculation  of  resultant



potential adverse health effects, and applied it to the specific case of



the  potential consequences of the next 50 years of normal operations of



the United States nuclear power industry.  Only the potential impact  of



the  release  of four types of long-lived radionuclides, namely tritium,



krypton-85, iodine-129, and  the  actinides  has  been  considered,  and



therefore  the  report  does not purport to provide an evaluation of the



overall  impact  of  the  industry-    In   addition,   although   these



radionuclides have half-lives ranging from a decade to millions of years



and  can  be  projected  to  migrate  over  large areas, on the basis of



present knowledge we cannot meaningfully project  their  persistence  in



the  biosphere  for  periods  much  longer  than  a  number  of decades.

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Therefore the potential consequences on health have been calculated only



for the first 100-year period following release.



    Two  different viewpoints for preparing estimates of these potential



future consequences have been  utilized  in  the  analysis.   The  first



attempts  to  make  an  assessment  of potential consequences giving due



allowance for expected performance of current  emission  controls.   The



second  attempts  to  establish  estimates  of upper limits of potential



adverse consequences that  are  useful  for  public  health  and  safety



planning  purposes,  such  as in assessing the adequacy of the margin of



safety  provided  by  the  controls  assumed  in  the  first  viewpoint.



Cfoviously,  these numerical estimates of projected impact are subject to



considerable uncertainty; this is due both to the variability associated



with all projections and the currently indeterminate character  of  some



of  the important parameters in the analysis.  Expanded research efforts



to better define the possible environmental pathways and  health  impact



of these radionuclides are needed.



    The  report  projects,  by the end of the 50-year period considered,



upper estimates for some of the radionuclides considered of as  many  as



5,000  to  25,000 committed potential health effects over the succeeding



100 years.  To provide a perspective any such  potential  health  impact



can  be  viewed  in  the light of the many-fold greater number of health



effects attributable to  natural  background  radiation.   The  National



Academy  of Sciences, in its report entitled "The Effects on Populations



of Exposure to Low Levels of  Ionizing  Radiation,"  has  given  a  most



likely  estimate  of approximately 3,000 to 4,000 cancer deaths annually





                                     vi

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as attributable to levels of natural background radiation  in  the  U.S.



This  is  equivalent  to  roughly  one percent of the spontaneous cancer



deaths per year.  Effects attributable to natural  background  radiation



exposures  are  estimated  on  an  annual  basis  and  therefore for any



comparison to the projections made in the report the time period covered



would have to be taken into account.



    Unlike the situation with respect to  natural  background  radiation



exposures, however, most of the projected potential impact of long-lived



radionuclides  from  the  nuclear  power  industry  can be avoided.   The



timely imposition of controls, which considers  the  environmental  dose



conmitment  concept,  can minimize the potential effects attributable to



release of these  materials.   It  is  concluded,  therefore,  that  the



overall  environmental  dose  commitment  resulting  from the release of



these long-lived radionuclides by normal operations of the United States



nuclear power industry for the next 50 years can be relatively small. A



summary of the major findings of the report will be found in section IV.

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                                CONTENTS

                                                                     Page

FOREWDRD	   iii

PREFACE	     V

ABSTRACT	   xii

I.    INTRODLICTION	     1

H.   ENVIRONMEtTTAL DOSE COMMITMENT - GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS	     4

III.  APPLICATION TO SELECTED LONG-LIVED RADIONUCLIDES FROM THE
      NUCLEAR PO^ER INDUSTRY	    10
      A.  General Considerations	*	    10
      B.  Numerical Values of Key Parameters for Specific Radio-
          nuclides	    15
          1.  Actinides	    15
          2.  Iodine	    18
          3.  Krypton and Tritium	    19
      C.  Expected Minimum Performance by Industry - A First View-
          point	    20
      D.  Public Health Planning Projections - A Second Viewpoint..    22

IV.   SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS	    27

         BIBLIOGRAPHY	    30
A.  GENERAL EQUATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DOSE COMMITMENT
    I.    INTRODUCTiaj	  A- 1
    II.   GENERAL EQUATIONS	  A- 2

B.  ANNUAL RADIONUa.TDE INVENTORIES AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS
    I.    INTRODUCTiaj	  B- 1
    II.   ANNUAL RADIONUCLIDE INVENTORIES	  B- 1
    III.  POPULATION PROJECTIONS	  B- 8
          A.  Regional	  B- 8
          B.  United States	  B- 8
          C.  World	  B- 8
               	  B-10
                                   IX

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                                                                    Page

C.  ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
    I.    INTRODUCTION .............................................  C-  1
    H.   TRANSPORT TO LOCAL POPULATIONS ...........................  C-  1
    III.  TRANSPORT TO REGIONAL POPULATIONS ........................  C-  3
          A.  Tritium ..............................................  C-  4
          B.  Krypton-85 ...................... .....................  C-  4
          C.  Iodine-129 ........................... . ...............  C-  5
          D.  Actinides ............................................  C-  6
    3V.   TRANSPORT TO WORLD POPULATIONS ...........................  C-  7
          A,  Krypton-85 ...........................................  C-  7
          B.  Tritium ..............................................  C-  7
D.  CONVERSION FACTORS FOR RADIOLOGICAL DOSE AND HEALTH
    I.    INTRODUCTION .............................................   D- 1
    II.   MEDIA CXMEbJTRATICN-TO-DOSE CONVERSION FACTORS ...........   D- 1
          A.  Krypton-85 ...........................................   D- 3
          B.  Tritium ..............................................   D- 4
          C.  Iodine-129 ...........................................   D- 6
          D.  Plutonium-239 and Other Actinides ....................   D- 8
    HI.  DOSE-TO-RISK CONVERSION FACTORS ..........................   D-10
          A.  Krypton-85 ...........................................   D-ll
              1.  Total Body Dose-to-Somtic Risk ..................   D-ll
              2.  Gonadal Dose-to-Genetic Risk .....................   D-12
              3.  Lung Dose-to-Cancer Risk .........................   D-13
              4.  Skin Dose-to-Cahcer Risk .........................   D-14
          B.  Tritium ..............................................   D-15
              1.  Total Body Dose-to-Somtic Risk ..................   D-15
              2.  Gonadal Dose-to-Genetic Risk .....................   D-15
          C.  Iodine-129 ...........................................   D-15
          D.  Plutonium and Other Actinides ........................   D-17
               [[[   D-18
                                 FIGURES

Figure 1    Model for estimating health effects from the nuclear
            power industry	     12

Figure 2    Estimated cumulative potential health effects com-
            mitted by projected releases from the United States
            nuclear power industry	     25


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                                 TABLES

                                                                     Page

Table 1     Numerical values for sane significant parameters used
            in the analysis	    14

Table 2     Projected numbers of health effects attributable to
            release of certain long-lived radionuclides by normal
            operation of the nuclear power industry (estimated for
            anticipated minimum performance by industry assuming
            current release practices)	    21

Table 3     Projected numbers of health effects attributable to
            release of certain long-lived radionuclides by normal
            operation of the nuclear power ijidustry (estimated as
            maximum plausible projections for purpose of planning
            for adequate public health and safety considerations)..    24

Table B.I   Estimated U.S. nuclear power production and fuel re-
            processing requirements	  B- 2

Table B.2   Representative quantities of potentially significant
            fission products in spent reactor fuels	  B- 4

Table B.3   Representative quantities of potentially significant
            activation products in spent reactor fuels	  B- 5

Table B.4   Representative quantities of actinides present in
            spent reactor fuels	  B- 6

Table B.5   Estimated annual inventories of selected nuclides in
            reprocessed fuels	  B- 7

Table D.I   Summary of air concentration-to-dose conversion factors  D- 3

Table D.2   Air concentration-to-lung dose conversion factors for
            actinide radionuclides relative to that for plutonium-
            239	  D- 9
                                    XI

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                                ABSTRACT
     The concept  of  environmental  dose cotmitment  is  developed  and



illustrated  by  application  to  projected  releases of selected radio-



nuclides from the nuclear power industry over the next fifty years.   The



concept encompasses the total  projected  radiation  dose to populations



committed by the irreversible release of long-lived radionuclides to the



environment, and forms a basis for estimating  the total  potential con-



sequences on public health of such  environmental  releases.  Because of



the difficulty  of  making  projections of radionuclide transport on the



basis of present knowledge,  these potential consequences have been cal-



culated only for the first one hundred-Year  period  following  release.



The particular radionuclides considered are tritium, krypton-85, iodine-



129, and the actinides.
                                    xii

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                ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE COMMITMENT:



              AN APPLICATION TO THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY








I.  INTRODUCTION



    In recent years mankind has beccne  aware  that  decisions  made  to



achieve  short-term  gains must take into account their impact on future



generations.  Contamination of the environment due to the  use  of  such



materials  as  pesticides,  mercury/  lead, and a variety of other toxic



substances which persist for long periods of time is well known.   These



substances,  even  though  discharged at low rates, can over a period of



years gradually build up to undesirable levels.  Since there are usually



no practical methods to remove these  materials  from  the  environment,



their  introduction  represents,  in  fact,  an  irreversible cormitment



ameliorated only by natural decomposition or occlusion.



    Current and projected technologies for the  utilization  of  nuclear



energy  introduce a variety of radioactive materials to the environment.



Most of these materials are short-lived, due to radioactive  decay,  and



have  their  primary  impact  near  the  sources  of their discharge.  A



number, however, are long-lived  and  represent  a  long-term  potential



source  of exposure of a large number of people.  In general, no methods



are available to effectively remove such materials from the  environment



once  they have been released, and such releases thus imply irreversible



commitments for exposure  of  future  generations,  except  for  natural



occlusion  in  environmental sinks.  In cases where these materials have



physical or chemical properties which allow their  widespread  dispersal

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through one or more environmental media, the impact of these commitments



may be significantly enhanced..



    The current contamination of  the  general  environment  by  nuclear



weapons fallout from tests conducted in the 1950's and early 1960's is a



prime  example  of  general  environmental  contamination by radioactive



materials that  is  now  irreversible.   This  source  of  radiation  is



worldwide  and,  next  to natural background and medical exposure, it is



the  largest  component  of  man's  current  radiation  exposure.    The



recognition  that  fallout  represents  a  general  population risk (not



primarily an individual one) and the associated  public  reaction  which



occurred  were  strong  factors  in the movement leading to cessation of



atmospheric nuclear weapons tests by the major world powers in 1962.



    It is generally accepted that no threshold can be assumed for health



effects due to radiation exposure; therefore, the perspective that  must



govern  discharges  of  these  materials  to the environment is that all



doses which accrue to exposed populations result in  some  increment  of



risk  to  these  populations.   The  perspective that all radiation dose



results in some risk to the 'individuals exposed, or  to  their  progeny,



plus  the  fact  that  projected  large-scale use of nuclear energy will



produce large quantities of long-lived radionuclides, some of which  may



be  discharged  to  the  environment,  make  it  especially important to



consider the consequences of irreversible commitment of these discharges



to the environment before they have occurred.



    This paper develops general concepts for calculating the  cumulative



consequences   of   release   to  the  environment  of  such  long-lived

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radionuclides and illustrates these with an analysis  of  the  potential



environmental  consequences  of  projected  releases of certain of these



long-lived radionuclides associated with operations of the nuclear power



industry for the  next  50  years.   These  consequences  are  developed



through  calculation  of  the  entire  cotinitment  of  doses (i.e., dose



equivalent) to  populations  implied  by  an  environmental  release/  a



quantity   defined   here   as   the  "environmental  dose  connitment."



Projections of this type are particularly important because  the  impact



of  these  releases on populations continues over a long period of time.



Since control must be instituted long before the impacts associated with



these releases occur, projection of anticipated potential health effects



which could result from the release of these radionuclides constitutes a



necessary basis for decisions concerning the  need  for  institution  of



control over their release.



    Future  decisions  ought  to  consider  these  dose conrnitments with



respect to both the types of  development  that  should  occur  and  the



choice  of  controls  that should be imposed.  This analysis attempts to



develop some of the factors associated with the perspective provided  by



environmental  dose  commitment  and  to  illustrate  how it may provide



results which apply to the nuclear power industry as it embarks upon  an



anticipated period of accelerated growth over the next several decades.

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II. ENVIRONMENTAL DOSE Q3MMTEMENT - GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS



    The impact of radioactive effluents on man can  be  considered  from



three  different  perspectives.   The  first of these is in terms of the



maximum  dose  to  individuals.   This  measure   has   been   the   one



traditionally used for radiation impact analyses, and existing radiation



protection guidelines are usually expressed as limits on annual doses to



individuals.   Although  this  approach may be adequate when the primary



objective is to limit risk to specific individuals, as in  the  case  of



occupational limits for radiation workers, it is not adequate for use in



limiting  the  impact  of  long-lived  radioactive  effluents  on  large



populations.  These materials  typically  deliver  exposures  over  many



generations  and  the  exposure  of specific individuals is usually very



small.  Doses received by members of the public due to the radionuclides



considered later in  this  report  are  in  general  several  orders  of



magnitude  below  existing  Federal  Guides  limiting  annual individual



doses.  The impact of such materials can be large, not because there are



substantial  risks  to  specific  individuals,  but  because  there  are



substantial  numbers  of  people  at low levels of risk, and because the



potential for exposure may persist for a substantial period of time.



    A second perspective is provided by summing the individual doses  to



each  of  the  members  of  a population to obtain an index of the total



population impact.  This sum is generally expressed in person-reins,  and



is conmonly  estimated  by  forming  the product of the total number of



persons exposed and their average dose.  This population dose is usually



expressed on an annual basis.

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    A third perspective  of  the  environmental  impact  of  radioactive



effluents  includes the additional impact in subsequent years due to  the



buildup and persistence of long-lived radionuclides.   This  perspective



is  termed  the  "environmental dose coninitment" and, simply defined, is



the sum of all doses to individuals over  the  entire  time  period  the



material   persists   in  the  environment  in  a  state  available  for



interaction with humans.  The unit of measure for this total  population



dose  is person-reins of environmental dose commitmsnt.  It is calculated



for a specific release at a specific time and is obtained by summing the



person-rems delivered in each of the  years  following  release  to  the



environment  until  dose increments are inconsequential as the result of



either radioactive decay or removal from the biosphere by other means.



    The impact of this dose ccmnitment can  be  expressed  in  terms  of



cumulative   potential  health  effects.   The  terminology  "cumulative



potential health effects" is used here to describe the sum of  projected



deaths  and  diseases, including birth defects, that may be attributable



to environmental releases from a given radiation source over a specified



time period.  The qualifying adjective "potential" is added to emphasize



that the incidence of specific effects is based on  extrapolations  from



information  derived  at  higher  levels  of  dose  than  those actually



expected, using a  linear,  non-threshold  dose-effect  assumption.   In



addition,  these  effects  will  not  be  demonstrable  since  they  are



distributed  on  a  statistical  basis  throughout  the  entire  exposed



population  and  are not different in kind from health effects occurring



from other causes.  Health effects are here defined as radiation-induced

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somatic effects such as lung, thyroid, or  skin  cancers,   plus  certain



serious  genetic  effects  in  future  generations.   Relevant aspects of



health effect considerations are discussed in appendix D.



    The idea of dose ccranitment is inherent in the internal dose  models



of  the  International  Commission  of  Radiological  Protection used to



compute the maximum dose  an  individual  can  receive  from  internally



deposited  radioactive materials which have long physical and biological



ha If-lives.  Doses arising from radium and strontium deposition in  bone



are  examples of this application of the concept of dose commitment.  In



addition, the United Nation's Scientific Committee  on  the  Effects  of



Atonic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has discussed basic concepts which pertain to



calculating   the   dose   committed   by  long-term  exposures  due  to



environmental contamination by  radionuclides,  but  these   calculations



focus  on the maximum potential individual dose rather than on the total



impact of a given release on populations over extended periods of  time.



The  concept  of  environmental  dose  commitment developed here extends



these concepts to incorporate the total population dose implied  by  the



environmental  release  of  a  radionuclide.   Even  though  many of the



principles involved have  been  previously  enunciated,  no  significant



application  of  the  concept  of  dose catmitment to evaluations of the



total impact on populations of environmental releases  of  radionuclides



appears to have been previously reported.



    The determination of doses committed by the release of a radioactive



material   to  the  environment  involves  a  multiplicity  of  factors.



Environmental dose commitment, however, is particularly  dependent  upon

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the radioactive half-life of the nuclide under consideration, as it will



determine  the availability for widespread dispersion in the environment



and hence the total number of  persons  potentially  exposed  over  both



space  and  time.   For the short-lived radionuclides, the environmental



dose commitment will usually consist only of the short-term exposure  of



a  limited  population  group.   There  is  effectively no environmental



buildup of these radionuclides because the actual  amount  available  at



any   time  represents  a  balance  between  incremental  additions  and



incremental removals by radioactive decay (i.e.,  equilibrium)   that  is



achieved  in a short span of time.  For long-lived radionuclides such an



equilibrium condition will not be reached for many  generations.   These



radionuclides continue to accumulate in the environment and, even if all



further  additions  are  stopped at some point in time, will persist for



extended time spans as a potential source  of  cumulative  exposures  to



successive  generations.  For some radionuclides this time period may be



of the order of tens of thousands or even millions of years.  In theory,



their total impact should be evaluated over this entire time period.  In



practice, it is difficult, if not impossible, to make  predictions  over



such  extremely  long  time  periods  and seme reasonable cutoff must be



used.  For this analysis this cutoff has been arbitrarily chosen as  100



years.   This time span includes very nearly the entire potential impact



of radionuclides with half-lives of the  order  of  10  years  (such  as



tritium  and  krypton-85)  and it provides at least an evaluation of the



impact  over  a  defined  time  period   for   the   much   longer-lived



radionuclides such as plutonium-239 and iodine-129.

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    A schematic mathematical representation of the cumulative population

dose   resulting   from   a   given  environmental  release,  i.e.,  the

"environmental dose commitment," is given by:
                           00        -X.n
                  D±(t) =  I  Qi(t)e  1  Ti(n) P± P(t+n)  ,
                          n=o
vThere D. (t)   =    cumulative population dose resulting from the release

                   of radionuclide i in calendar year t.

      Q. (t)   =    quantity of radionuclide i released in the year t.

         X.   =    radioactive decay factor for radionuclide i.

      T. (n)   =    pathway model conversion factor relating quantity

                   of radionuclide i released to its concentration in

                   the medium at the location of interest n years

                   following release.

         F.   =    dosimetry conversion factor relating concentration

                   of radionuclide in the medium to resultant dose to

                   individuals exposed.

      P (t4n)   =    number of persons exposed in calendar year  (t + n).

           t  =    calendar year of release.

           n  =    number of years from year t.

    This illustrative expression is  necessarily  simplified.   In  real

applications,  the  complications  introduced  by  the  multiplicity  of

environmental pathways, differences in doses to various organs  and  the

spatial  dependence  of  both  the  pathway model and population must be

 8

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considered explicitly.  This  expression  applies  specifically  to  the



situation  in  which exposure of all individuals is uniform and the dose



of interest is to the whole body, or to one organ, and from  one  medium



only.   Appendix  A  contains  more  detailed  general  equations  which



consider the complications introduced by the above and other factors.



    In converting from environmental dose commitments to health  effects



it  is  necessary to define the particular types of health effects to be



considered and the  probabilities  that  they  will  be  incurred  as  a



function  of  the  dose  delivered.   The  analyses  in  this report are



limited, as described earlier,  to  estimates  of  cancers  and  certain



serious  genetic  effects,  and  the  risk  coefficients  used  have, in



general, been derived from the recent (November,  1972)   report  of  the



Advisory  Committee  on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations of



the National Academy of Sciences - National Research  Council,  entitled



"The  Effects  on  Populations  of  Exposure  to  Low Levels of Ionizing



Radiation." Although in the future it may become  possible  to  quantify



some  of  the  less  serious  effects  of  radiation exposure, it is not



believed that this will substantially modify the inferences  for  health



impacts derived on the bases used here.

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III.     APPLICATION  TO  S^ECTED  IONG-LIVED  RADIONUCLIDES  FROM  THE



         NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY



    The  concept of environmental dose connitment is applied to releases



of long-lived radionuclides from the nuclear power industry in order  to



illustrate   the   use  of  the  concept  for  some  specific  cases  of



environmental releases.  The nuclear  power  industry  is  only  one  of



several  possible  sources  of long-lived radionuclides.  Others include



testing and other applications of nuclear devices, space power supplies,



and some medical and industrial applications.  Because of the  projected



rapid  growth of the nuclear power industry, releases resulting from the



normal operations of the industry have been selected as the  source  for



this  calculation.   Releases  associated  with  normal  operations  are



defined here to  include  all  routine  releases  plus  those  unplanned



releases  resulting  from minor accidents, such as equipment malfunction



and human error, which can be expected on a recurring basis.



    A.   General Considerations



    Two  different  viewpoints  for  preparing   estimates   of   future



consequences  have  been  utilized in this analysis.  The first of these



attempts to make  an  assessment  of  potential  consequences  with  due



allowance  for  expected  performance of current emission controls, with



the objective of placing the impact of projected releases of a  specific



radionuclide  in a realistic perspective.  The second viewpoint attempts



to establish plausible estimates of maximum potential consequences under



conditions of less effective  control  and  more  adverse  environmental



behavior.   Such a viewpoint is most useful for public health and safety





10

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planning purposes.  These projected maximum potential  consequences  are



not  actually  expected  to  occur.   Indeed,  it is the purpose of such



projections to develop a rational basis for the  control  measures  that



would prevent their occurrence.



    To assess the magnitude of the potential environmental impact of the



release  of long-lived radionuclides, four different isotopes (or groups



of related isotopes) have been chosen for this  study.   This  selection



was  based  primarily  on  estimated  total  public  health impact.  The



radionuclides considered are tritium, krypton-85,  iodine-129,  and  the



actinides including plutonium-238, 239, 240, and 241, americium-241, and



curium-242 and 244.  A number of other long-lived radionuclides, such as



strontium-90 and cesium-137, are also produced in substantial quantities



by  the  nuclear power industry and their total impact could conceivably



be significant  compared  to  that  of  the  illustrative  radionuclides



discussed here.



    The  general considerations included in making these assessments are



outlined in figure 1.  Quantities of the various radionuclides  produced



were  derived from projections of United States nuclear power production



through the year 2020 beginning with the year 1970 and are discussed  in



appendix B.  Obviously, growth estimates of nuclear power are subject to



differences  of  opinion  and  the  results of these assessments will be



proportional to the projections  used.   This  appendix  also  describes



projections used in this report for United States and world populations.



Assumptions concerning control technology and environmental pathways are



described in appendix C.  Release of all of the radionuclides considered





                                                                      11

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NUCLIDE SOURCE TERM
ENVIRONMENTAL PATHWAYS
          AND
 MEDIA CONCENTRATIONS
   POPULATION DOSE
HEALTH EFFECTS
 Half-lives

 Chemical and
   physical forms

 Production rate

 Release rate
    Dispersion

    Dilution


    Reconcentratlon
Direct radiation

Inhalation


Ingestion

Population statistics
Cancers

Leukemia


Genetic effects
                Meteorology

                 Hydrology

              Soil properties
             Media concentration-

              to-dose conversion

                    factors
             Dose equivalent to

                health effect

             conversion factors
1

Radionuclide
sources






Air
Water
Food chains






Whole body
and
Organ doses
(person-rems)






Morbidity
Mortality


        Figure 1  Model for estimating health effects from the nuclear power industry

-------
is assumed to lead to initial short-term exposures of individuals within
an  80  km  (50  miles)   radius.   Iodine-129 and the actinides are then
assumed to be ultimately uniformly distributed over,  and  confined  to,
large portions of the continental United States.  Krypton-85 and tritium
are  assumed  to  be  ultimately  dispersed  over the entire world.  The
concentration of radioactivity in food, water, air and  other  materials
was  converted  to  population  dose  and  then  to health effects.  The
conversion factors used are described in appendix D.
    The  calculated  consequences  of  the  release  of  the  long-lived
radionuclides  are critically dependent on the assumptions made.  A wide
range of possible values for input parameters exists in addition to  the
normal  uncertainties  inherent  in  making any future projections.  The
estimated range of possible values for certain parameters and the actual
values used in this report are shown in table 1.  The rationale for  the
selection  of  these values is discussed below in section B.  This table
lists only the parameters for which different  values  were  assumed  in
computing the dose commitments for each of the two viewpoints considered
in  this  report.   Using  these parameters, the series of environmental
dose cotmitments resulting from each of the annual releases attributable
to operations of the nuclear power industry over  the  period  1970-2020
was  calculated.   Using these results, the cumulative numbers of health
effects attributable to releases of each radionuclide through any  given
year were estimated.  These effects represent the potential irreversible
commitment  due  to  releases through any given year, even if all future
releases should cease at that point.  The calculated environmental  dose
                                                                      13

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                               Table 1



Numerical values for some significant parameters used in the analysis

Parameter

Actinide resuspension (m ) 	
Iodine-129 release fraction 	
Krypton- 8 5 release fraction 	
Tritium release fraction 	
Range
of
possible
values
in~^ - in"~^
J.U J.U
ID"5 - 1
-------
cotmitments take into account all of the exposures occurring during  the


period  of  persistence  of  krypton-85  (half-life  10.7  years)  and of


tritium (half-life 12.3 years), but include only that  fraction  of  the


total  environmental  dose  commitment  occuring  during the initial 100


years after release for iodine-129 (half-life 1.7 x 10  years)   and  the

                                            4
actinides (half-lives ranging up to 2.4 x 10  years).


    B.   Numerical Values of Key Parameters for Specific Radionuclides


    Calculations  of  environmental  dose  commitments   attributed   to


releases  from  operations  incorporating  emission  controls are highly


dependent upon the parameters chosen to characterize  the  effectiveness


of these controls.  In addition, certain of the radionuclides considered


here  undergo  environmental  transport  processes  which  are  not  yet


quantitatively well-defined.  The existence of  large  uncertainties  in


these  release  and  transport  properties  led  to  the  choice  of two


viewpoints to estimate the potential impact of these radionuclides.  The


factors involved in  the  choice  of  numerical  values  for  these  key


parameters   for  the  two  viewpoints  are  discussed  below  for  each


radionuclide considered.


    1.   Actinides;


    Relatively small quantities of plutonium and the actinides have been


produced by the nuclear power  industry  to  date,  and  projections  of


future  releases  are  subject  to considerable uncertainties.   Thus, it


should be recognized initially that these estimates should  be  reviewed


and revised as additional information is developed.
                                                                      15

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    Current   control  practices  for  actinide  releases  at  a  single



operation, such as nuclear fuel chemical reprocessing, are  expected  to


                                          —8      —9
restrict  releases  to  the  order  of  10   to 10   of the total amount



processed, and future experience may  justify  the  assumption  of  even



smaller   release  fractions.   However,  when  allowance  is  made  for



inclusion of cumulative releases from the  variety  of  fuel  processing



operations  as well as transportation and handling throughout the entire



fuel cycle, the fractional loss of plutonium and the  actinides  to  the



environment for the entire fuel cycle must be assumed to be greater than



that from a single operation.  In this context the fractional release of



the  actinides is not realistically expected to exceed 10   of the total



amount handled in any given year.  This value was  used  for  projecting



expected  minimum  performance  of  the  industry.   For  public  health



planning purposes a more conservative viewpoint was adopted;  a  release



fraction ten times greater was used.



    Transport  pathways for the actinides through the environment to man



are not well defined.  In this analysis the only pathway to man has been



assumed to be inhalation of aerosol particles initially suspended in air



and subsequently resuspended in the atmosphere after initial deposition.



Additionally, the simplifying assumption  was  made  that  the  fraction



released  was  uniformly distributed over the continental United States.



In view of the large uncertainties associated  with  the  estimation  of



other factors  in the analysis, these assumptions are not considered to



represent a serious deficiency.
 16

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    Resuspension - the ratio of material per unit volume of air to  that



per  unit  surface area of soil - is critically dependent upon a variety



of parameters, including the depth profile of  the  deposited  material,



the size distribution of aerosol particulates, and especially upon local



variations  of  topography,  surface  vegetation,  and  wind velocities.

                                             _o

Resuspension factors ranging from a low of 10   per meter to a  high  of



about  10    per meter have been reported for newly deposited plutonium,



with most values clustered in the region of 10  .  For undisturbed areas



considerably lower values, ranging from 10   to 10    generally seem  to



apply  for time periods ranging from a few months to several years after


                                -9
deposition.  A value of about 10   appears to be a  reasonable  estimate



of   the  average  availability  of  plutonium  deposited  on  soil  for



relatively long periods of time at the Nevada Test Site.



    The difference between newly deposited sites and  undisturbed  areas



is  probably  due  to  downward migration of these compounds through the



soil, which depletes the quantity near the surface,  rather  than  to  a



fundamental  change in the physical characteristics of resuspension.  It



is expected that actual resuspension  at  specific  locations  decreases



with  time,  and  that migration through most soils represents a pseudo-



sink for the actinides.  Thus, the long-term impact of inhaled actinides



may be overestimated by assuming  a  constant  value  for  resuspension.



However,  adequate  data  are  presently  lacking,  and  a time-averaged



resuspension factor appears appropriate for use at the present state  of



knowledge.   Because of the availability of data for only a few isolated



sites and the known somewhat greater tendency for larger resuspension of



                                                                      17

-------
                                                                 -8
particulates in populated urban areas, a numerical  value  of  10    was



chosen as an appropriate numerical national average for the resuspension



factor  for  purposes  of  estimating  the  anticipated  impact  of  the



industry.  For public  health  planning  purposes  a  more  conservative



(pessimistic) value of 10   was selected.



    It  must  also  be recognized that the uncertainties associated with



human uptake pathways for the actinides give only  limited  validity  to



the  applicability  of  the  single  pathway  model  assumed  for  these



estimates and that this  model  must  be  updated  as  more  information



becomes available.



    2.   Iodine:



    Releases of iodine-129 by the nuclear power industry can be expected



to be almost exclusively restricted  to  fuel  reprocessing  facilities.



Nearly  all of ^ie iodine produced by fission in the reactor is released



when the fuel cladding barrier  is  destroyed  and  the  spent  fuel  is



dissolved  for fuel reprocessing.  Iodine control technology is becoming



available which appears to be capable of  restricting  releases  to  the


                               -3      -4
environment  to the order of 10   to 10   of the total amount present in



the fuel.  If this degree of control is achieved a release  fraction  of



10~~  will be an achievable objective for the industry, even if allowance



is  made  for  possible additional losses in waste handling programs for



this material.  However this control equipment is designed primarily  to



control  iodine-131, which has a much shorter half-life than iodine-129.



For public health planning purposes  a  more  pessimistic  view  of  the
18

-------
performance  of  this  technology  for iodine-129 was assumed; a release



factor of 10   was used.



    The pathway model for iodine-129 in the  environment  used  in  this



analysis  is  subject to considerable uncertainty.  Uniform distribution



of iodine-129 over the entire eastern land area of the United States  is



an  idealized  concept, but this probably does not introduce significant



error when  used  in  the  evaluation  of  health  effects  in  national



populations.   However,  the migration of iodine-129 in the environment,



its pathways to man, and its  ultimate  disposition  are  not  yet  well



established.



    3.   Krypton and Tritium;



    Assumptions relative to the quantities  of  krypton-85  and  tritium



released   and   of  possible  environmental  pathways  are  subject  to



considerably less uncertainty than those for plutonium  and  iodine-129.



Krypton  is  an  inert  gas  and  tritium  is  found  in the environment



principally in the form of tritiated water (i.e., HTO).  Control methods


                                        3          2
which have decontamination factors of 10    and  10    for  krypton  and



tritium,  respectively, have been proposed, but none is currently in use



in the nuclear power industry.  Therefore, release of all krypton-85 and



tritium produced has been assumed.



    Environmental pathway models for tritium  are  subject  to  somewhat



larger  uncertainties  than those for krypton.  Krypton-85 is assumed to



expose local and regional populations via a finite cloud model and  then



to  mix  uniformly  in  the world's atmosphere.  Pathway assumptions for



tritium are somewhat less well established, and  assumptions  concerning




                                                                      19

-------
the  initial  regional  dispersion  of tritium prior to its entering the



hydrological cycle are not well documented.  The  model  chosen  assumes



rainout  over  the eastern United States of half of the tritium released



followed by dilution and recirculation in the world's hydrological cycle



of the entire amount released.



    C.   Expected Minimum Performance By Industry—A First Viewpoint



    Table 2 lists the projected numbers of health effects resulting from



projected releases from the United States nuclear  power  industry  over



the  next  50  years; these are based on the parameters shown in table 1



for this viewpoint.  These projections assume that presently anticipated



performance of controls currently in use  will  obtain  in  the  future.



Releases  of  krypton-85  and tritium are currently not controlled.  The



imposition of controls which would reduce the fraction of  radionuclides



released  to  the  environment  would  decrease  the  environmental dose



cormitment proportionately.  However, this decrease  would  affect  only



the  additional  number  of  health effects attributable to the releases



prevented.



    The following is an example of how to  use  the  data  contained  in



table  2.   If the present absence of control is assumed to continue and



all krypton-85 produced  through  the  year  2000   is  released  to  the



environment,  the  calculations  indicate  that  an estimated 230 health



effects  (on a worldwide basis) will be  committed  by  krypton-85  doses



received  prior  to  the  end  of  the  year 2000, and that an estimated



additional 760 health effects will be caused by  doses  delivered  after



the  year  2000  by  krypton-85  remaining  in  the environment from all





20

-------
                                            Table 2

                  Projected numbers  of health effects  attributable  to  release
     of certain long-lived radionuclides  by normal operation  of  the nuclear power  industry
 Cestimated for anticipated minimum  performance by industry assuming current release  practices)

Year(t)

i Q7n__ 	 	 	

1 QftO__ 	
1 QQ £____ 	
i oon___ 	
1 QQ (\____________
2000 	
2005 	
9m o__ 	 	
on-i c_ 	 	 	 	
orjon 	 	


Cumulative number of health effects
Iodine-129
Past-
present
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.8
Future
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.7
one- fourth fatal
Tritium
Past-
a
present
0
2
11
35
88
190
360
630
1,000
1,600
2,300
Future
0
0.5
3
8
21
A3
81
140
230
340
500
two-thirds fatal
Krypton-85
Past-
a
present
0
0.3
3
14
42
110
230
460
830
1,400
2,300
Future
0
5
26
79
190
410
760
1,300
2,100
3,200
4,600
two-thirds fatal
Actinides
Past-
present
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
2
3
Future
0
0
0.1
0.4
1
2
4
7
10
15
21
all fatal
The number of health effects committed from doses received through year(t).

The number of health effects committed from  doses  delivered  after  year(t)  by  radionuclide
releases up through year(t) only.

-------
releases  prior  to  the  end  of the year 2000.  Operations of the U.S.


nuclear power industry through the year 2020 could  result  in  a  total


worldwide  population impact (i.e., cumulative potential health effects)


of about 7,000 health effects attributable to the release of  krypton-85


and  as  many  as  10,000  health  effects  due to all the radionuclides


considered here.  This number is derived by summing all entries for  the


year  2020.   An  obvious conclusion from the results is that, under the


conditions assumed for this part of the analysis,  krypton  and  tritium


are   the  radionuclides  of  major  concern  for  the  100-year  period


considered.


    D.   Public Health Planning Projections — A Second Viewpoint


    The importance of developing projections for public health  planning


purposes  is to gain a perspective of the maximum plausible impact man's


activities may have on the total quality of life.  Predictions made  for


this   purpose   must  necessarily  adopt  a  more  conservative  (i.e.,


pessimistic) perspective, especially for activities which may result  in


an  irreversible  deterioration of the environment and on which controls


must be imposed long before an unacceptable level of impact is  reached.


The  expectation  is  not that these conservative estimates will cone to
                                                                v>

fruition, but rather that constant vigilance and  effective   application


of  technology  can and must be utilized to prevent these estimates from


being realized.


    The values of input parameters which were used  for  these  planning


projections  are  shown in table 1.  The choice of this set of numerical


values resulted from a series of judgments at least as difficult to make




22

-------
as those for the previous  projections  for  expected  minimum  industry



performance.   The  general  approach  taken  in  choosing the values of



parameters for these second viewpoint  projections  was  to  attempt  to



avoid  the  use  of worst case assumptions simultaneously for all of the



variables.  Calculated impacts resulting from the  parameters  used  for



this  second  viewpoint are listed in table 3 and displayed in figure 2.



Results from the first viewpoint are also displayed  in  figure  2,  for



comparative purposes.



    The  most significant result of the public health planning viewpoint



is the  relatively  large  number  of  health  effects  attributable  to



releases of the actinides.  Under these assumptions, by the year 2020 an



additional  commitment  of 24,000 health effects is projected for normal



operations of the United States nuclear power  industry.   The  bulk  of



these  effects are evenly distributed over the 100-year period following



release for which the environmental dose commitment was calculated.  Two



points should be emphasized.  First, the number of effects calculated is



based on a highly conservative (pessimistic)  set of assumptions  and  is



expected  to  overestimate  the  actual impact of such releases over the



100-year period chosen for this analysis.  Second, the actinides are,  in



general, very long-lived materials and their eventual total impact  over



many  centuries  may be many times that experienced during the first 100



years following release.  Current knowledge does not  permit  estimation



over such long time periods.



    Until  existing  uncertainties  in  these  projections are resolved,



concern for protection of public health dictates that such estimates  as





                                                                      23

-------
to
Table 3
                         Projected numbers of health effects attributable to release
            of certain long-lived radionuclides by normal operation of the nuclear power industry
                    (estimated as maximum plausible projections for purposes of planning
                            for adequate public health and safety considerations)
Year(t)
1970 	
1975 	
i QRn__ _____
1985 	
1990 	
1 QQ «;_____ _____
2000 	
2005 	
2010 	
2015 	
9O9n__— — ______
f.\j DJ*-^*- ________ _

Cumulative number of health effects
Iodine-129
Past-
present
0
0
0
1
3
6
11
21
34
53
78
Future
0
0
1
A
9
17
32
53
82
120
170
one-fourth fatal
Tritium
Past-
present
0
2
11
35
88
190
360
630
1,000
1,600
2,300
Future
0
0.5
3
8
21
A3
81
1AO
230
3AO
500
two-thirds fatal
Krypton-85
Past-
present
0
0.3
3
1A,
A2
110
230
A60
830
1,AOO
2,300
Future
0
5
26
79
190
A 10
760
1,300
2,100
3,200
A, 600
two-thirds fatal
Actinides
Past-
present
0
2
12
38
96
210
AGO
720
1,200
1,900
2,800
Future
0
26
1AO
AAO
1,100
2,200
3,900
6,500
10,000
15,000
21,000
all fatal
           number of health effects committed from doses received through year(t).

       The number of health effects committed  from  doses  delivered  after  year(t)   by radionuclide
       releases up through year(t)  only.

-------
   20,000
o
LLJ
o
   15,000
X
u.
O
Z  10,000
LLJ
>
I
5
u
    5,000
             — Expected Minimum Performance of Industry

             	 Public Health Planning Projection
ACT IN IDES
                                                     85
                                                       Kr,
          1970
2000
2010
 ACTINIDES

      129
    ^*>
    ^m
2020
                                  YEAR
       Figure 2.   Estimated cunulative potential health effects
                conmitted by projected  releases from the
                   United States  nuclear power industry
                                   25

-------
these  of  potential  consequences be made in order to assure the public
that uncertainties have been considered and that reasonable  margins  of
protection  will  be provided.  This approach is especially important in
cases where current releases may be small but the  cumulative  potential
impact  of a rapidly expanding industry is significant.  It is important
to recognize that these large uncertainties exist because adequate  data
are  not  available,  a  condition  that  can  be  remedied only through
additional research and monitoring efforts.
 26

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IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS



    This  report  has  developed  the  concept  of  environmental    dose



commitment to examine the implications of the irreversible commitment of



releases  of  long-lived  radionuclides to the environment.  It is found



that a comprehensive assessment of the iinpact of such  releases  can  be



conducted  within the analytical framework provided by this concept.  An



assessment of the iinpact of such materials on individuals  or  on  local



populations  on  the  basis of annual exposure alone does not provide an



adequate measure of the total impact of their  release.   The  scope  of



analysis  must  include not only all members of the population initially



exposed, but also all exposures during  the  entire  time  frame  during



which  these radionuclides remain in the biosphere.  Although not all of



the projections for the radionuclides considered here  satisfy  both  of



these  criteria  completely,  the perspective provided by even a partial



calculation  of  environmental  dose  commitment  is  considerably  more



meaningful than such a traditional measure as annual individual dose.



    The  concept  of  environmental  dose  commitment was applied to the



projected normal releases of several long-lived radionuclides  over  the



next  50  years  due  to operations of the nuclear power industry in the



United States.  The results of the analysis are expressed  in  terms  of



numbers  of potential health effects.  Although the impact was evaluated



on a worldwide basis, only the contribution of releases from the  United



States  nuclear  power program was considered.  In view of uncertainties



involved in projecting the impact of these  releases,  the  results  are



presented both in terms of minimum expected industry performance as well




                                                                      27

-------
as  in  terms of estimates useful primarily for public health and safety



planning purposes.



    Application of the concept of environmental dose commitment leads to



the conclusion  that,  in  general,  the  impacts  of  projected  future



releases   of  the  long-lived  radionuclides  considered  here  can  be



relatively small if appropriate and timely attention is given  to  their



minimization. .  Although these impact are particularly small for current



levels of environmental releases, it  is  clear  that  future  radiation



guidance,  standards,  and  regulations must address the implications of



environmental dose commitments due to these materials.  The  perspective



provided  by  this  concept  is essential in order to insure that proper



attention is focused on minimizing the impact of man's rapidly expanding



uses of these radioactive materials on future generations.



    Numerical results of this study indicate  two  potential  trends  of



significance.   First,  the  potential  future  impact of the release of



krypton-85, especially if other releases around the world are  added  to



these  estimates, is sufficiently large that active consideration should



be given to controls to limit releases of  this  radionuclide.   Second,



the  potential  implications  of  release  of  the  actinides are large.



Additionally, the carrying out of this study  made  it  clearly  evident



that  there  is  a  need for comprehensive research efforts to delineate



release terms, environmental pathways, and  biological  effects  of  the



radionuclides considered, and in particular for the actinides.



    It  should  be recognized that any calculation of environmental dose



commitment is subject to uncertainty.  The  projections  presented  here
28

-------
are indicative only of current best estimates of  possible  consequences



and cannot indicate more than potential future general trends.   In order



to reduce uncertainties and thereby be more useful for policy decisions,



such  analyses  must be updated at frequent intervals as new information



is developed.  Fortunately, the vast  majority  of  the  adverse  health



effects  estimated  by  application of the concept of environmental dose



commitment are not yet committed.   Because of this, and in spite of  the



inherent  uncertainty  of  any  projection, the concept of environmental



dose commitment  can  provide  a  useful  basis  for  dealing  with  the



challenge  of protecting the environment from avoidable and irreversible



detriment.
                                                                     29

-------
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Burch,  et  al,  Transuranium  Processing  Plant  Semiannual  Report  of
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Crandall,  J.L.,  Tons of Curium and Pounds of Californium, Presented at
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Langham,  W.H.,  Plutonium  Distribution  as  a Problem in Environmental
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Alamos Scientific Laboratory, IA-4756 (August 4-5, 1971).

Lindell,   B.,   "Assessment  of  Population  Exposures,"  Symposium  on
Environmental  Behavior  of  Radionuclides  Released  in   the   Nuclear
Industry, Aix-en-Provence, France, (May 1973).

Machta, L., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Unpublished
Data.

National  Academy  of Sciences-National Research Council, The Effects on
Populations of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation,  Report  of
the  Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation,
(1972).

Nodvik, R.J., Supplementary Report on Evaluation of  Mass  Spectroinetric
and  Radiochemical Analyses of Yankee Core I Fuel, Including Isotopes of
Elements Thorium Through Curium,  Westinghouse  Atomic  Power  Division,
WCAP-6086.

Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc., Environmental Report No. 11, (1971).

Oak  Ridge  National  Laboratory, Siting of Fuel Reprocessing Plants and
Waste Management Facilities, ORNL-4451,  (1970).

United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiations,
Ionizing Radiation;  Levels  and  Effects,  United  Nations,  New  York,
(1972).

United Nations Statistical Office Report, (1966).

U.S.  Bureau of the Census, 1970 U.S. Census of Populations; Preliminary
Report.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United  States,
1969.
                      \
U.S.   Environmental  Protection  Agency,  Compendium  of  Environmental
Surveillance  Around  the  Rocky  Flats  Plutonium  Plant,  FOD/ORP/EPA,
(1972).

University  of  California,  Los  Alamos  Laboratory, Proceedings of the
Environmental Plutonium Symposium, LA-4756, (1971).

Wayne, S.J., et al, Clinical Aspects of Iodine  Metabolism,  F.A.  Davis
Co., Philadelphia, (1964);
                                                                      31

-------
         APPENDIX A








              EQUATIONS




             FOR




ENVIRONMENTAL DOSE OOMMTIMENT

-------
I.  INTRODUCTION



    The "environmental dose commitment" attributable  to  a  release  of



radioactive  material  is defined as the sum of all doses to individuals



over the entire time period the material persists in the environment  in



a  state  available for interaction with humans.  It is calculated for a



specific release occurring  at  a  specific  time.   Environmental  dose



commitments  are  expressed in terms of the number of person-rems to  the



whole body or to specific body  organs.   The  health  impact  of  these



commitments  can be expressed in terms of the numbers of different kinds



of health effects attributable to these doses by  using  a  linear  non-



threshold  dose-effect  model.   Finally,  the  total health impact of a



release may be characterized by  a  single  value  derived  by  applying



weighting factors to different categories of health effects and summing.



In  general,  however,  health  impacts  are  most usefully expressed as



separate categories of effect without such weighting.



    In order to develop mathematical expressions for environmental  dose



ccmmitment  and their associated health impacts, a variety of terms must



be coupled to the quantity (Q)  of  the  radionuclide  released  to  the



environment.    These  are  the  pathway  transfer  function  (T),  dose



conversion factor (F), population density (P), health effects conversion



factor (R), and a weighting factor (W)  that expresses the seriousness of



a health effect.  These terms may differ depending upon the radionuclide



(i), pathway (j), body  organ  (k),  type  of  health  effect  (1),  and



transfer  medium  (m)  under  consideration.   In  addition, the pathway
                                    A-l

-------
transfer  function and population density will, in general, be functions of



geographical location and time.



II.  CittNimAL EQUATIONS



     To develop a general expression for environmental dose  cotmitment  we



first  consider  an individual at seme location, 4, away from the source of



the release of a quantity/ Q •/ of a radionuclide,  (tQ ) at calendar  time   t$ ,   and  the   term
                               'V-

     -»•

T- • m(X-r£)   converts the  quantity  released  to the concentration after a  time
 -x.j In
t at the location t in medium m from the j   pathway,  and carries the units



curies per unit volume per curie released.  The pathway .model,   T- •  (1,-t) ,
                                                                   ^*J M I


must  be  considered  a   function  of  time as well as of  location for two



reasons:  environmental sinks may have a time dependence  quite  apart  from



normal  radioactive  decay,  and the model, if expressed as a function  of




                                     A-2

-------
function of £ only, can be multivalued  due  to  recirculation  in  such
environmental  transport  systems  as  the hydrological cycle or general
atmospheric circulation.   The  exponential  is  the  radioactive  decay
factor,  where  X.  is  the  decay  constant  for  radionuclide t .  The
                 **O
concentration to which an individual is  exposed  through  a  particular
medium  is  converted  to dose rate to the whole body or to any organ or
tissue of interest by the  factor  F^.   ^fe  will  use  a  generalized
definition  of  organ  that  includes the whole body and skin as well as
internal organs and tissues.   For  each  specific  nuclide  it  is,  of
course,   necessary   to  determine  which  of  these  "organs"  are  of
significance.  This factor generally has no time or location dependence,
although it is possible that individual uptake  from  some  media  could
vary  throughout  the  year,  or from one location to another.  In those
situations where buildup of body burdens of internal emitters can occur,
it will also be necessary to reflect the sum of all future doses to  the
individual  committed by each incremental body burden in calculating the
factor F. . .
        4JT?fe
    Equation (1) expresses the basis required  for  the  calculation  of
individual exposures.  In order to extend the calculation to populations
an additional factor, P(£,.£0+£), the population density as a function of
location  and calendar time must be introduced.  In general, a number of
different characteristics of population subgroups must be considered  in
order  to  properly  calculate the effects of radiation exposure.  These
may include age-specific variation in uptake and organ size as  well  as
additional  variations  in radiosensitivity due to age or sex.  In cases

                                    A-3

-------
involving long-term (greater than a few years) cormitments for exposure,
however, it will usually be possible to avoid separate  calculation  for
each  population  subgroup  by  using a suitably weighted average of the
dose conversion factors appropriate to each population subgroup for  the
factor  F:~k *° represent the average for the entire population exposed.
Similarly, in converting from dose to health  effects  in  equation  (3)
below,  an   analogously   constructed   conversion  factor  can  easily
acconnodate  variations  in  sensitivity  due  to  age  or   sex.    For
simplicity,  therefore,  we  have not specified subgroups of the exposed
population, although the extension for special situations  requiring  it
is straightforward.
    The population  dose  cormitted  by  a  release  at  time t§ is now
computed by  integrating  equation   (1)  times  the  population  density
function over space and time:
                                                                      (2)
where 3L   and  t.   are  the  limits of geographical area and of time for
which the population dose is  being calculated.  Ideally, the calculation
of dose  committed by a release should consider all  locations  at  which
individuals may receive  exposures, and all time until the exponential
decay factor in equation (1)   reduces the  integrand  to  insignificant
values.  In practice this is  often either not possible or not practical.
The  detailed   examples  elsewhere in the report examine the question of
appropriate choices of these  limits for  some specific radionuclides.
                                    A-4

-------
     The quantity D., given by equation (2) is the  required  environmental



dose  commitment  and is specified in person-rems of population dose to the



whole body or to any organ, k,  attributable  to  release  of  a  quantity,



Q.(£g)*  of a particular radionuclide -c to the environment.  It provides in
 A*


a single value, or index, the means  for  comparative  assessments  of  the



impact  of such environmental releases.  However, two additional operations



are  required  to  transform  D -^  into  a  more  useful  measure  of   the



consequences  of  an  environmental  release.  The first is to estimate the



various health consequences or the total impact of such a  dose  due  to  a



single release, and the second is to project the cumulative consequences of



all  of  the  projected  releases  over  some  future  time period from the



particular activity under examination.



     •The health consequences of a radiation dose may range all the way from



inconsequential  to  lethal.   We  will  assume  that  it  is  possible  to



categorize  health  effects  into  groups  having  similar  importance  and



probability of occurrence in the exposed population.  If this can be  done,



then  the  number of such health effects,  H;», of a particular category, t,



due to an exposure from the release Q- can be expressed as:
where &» is the probability of incurring an effect of category  t  in  the



population  due  to an exposure of organ fe.   If the desired endpoint of the



analysis is the number of a particular category  of  effects  that  may  be



induced,  such  as  the  number  of  lethal   effects,  the  sum  over those




                                   A-5

-------
quantities, H££, which are lethal expresses this endpoint.  If, however,
it  is  desired  to  express the total impact of the release by a single
result, then it is necessary to pursue the calculation one step  further
by  introducing a weighting factor which expresses the relative severity
of the various categories of health effects, as follows:
                                                                      t4)
where I. is a single index representing the total iitpact of the release,
       *C-
Q., expressed in some convenient unit, such as dollars or days  or  life
 ^f
shortening  or  disccmforture,  and  W.  is an appropriately constructed
                                      ^.
weighting factor for the t   category of health effects.
    Environmental dose cotitdtments  are  calculated  in  order  to  make
assessments  of  operations  to  be conducted, usually, over an extended
period of time.   To  calculate  the  total  projected  consequences  of
conducting  such an operation it is necessary to determine the iitpact of
cumulative releases from  the  operation  over  a  specified  period  of
interest.   Since   the  population  exposed  will, in general, vary with
calendar time, the  calculation must be performed by  considering  Q.  in
                                                                   4~
equation   (1)  as   a  variable  which expresses the rate of release as a
function of time.   The calculation of the cumulative dose commitment  is
then  easily  accomplished  by performing an additional integration over
time in equation  (2) as follows:
= f
                                   2
                                     A-6

-------
where  the  integrand  is given by the right-hand side of equation  (2), but

                                          •

the time dependence of the release rate, Q-, is shown explicitly and  t2  i-s
                                          ^


the  end  of  the  period  over  which  releases due to the operation under



investigation are included.  The quantity  3D.,  is defined as the cumulative



environmental dose commitment and is specified in person-rems of population



dose, to the organ of interest, attributable to environmental releases from



a  particular  operation  over  a  specified  period of time.  The examples



derived below and  discussed  elsewhere  in  this  report  estimate  health



effects  as  a  function  of  t2 (the year to which the activity continues)



resulting from  such  cumulative  environmental  dose  commitments.   These



health   effects   and   their  related  impacts  can  be  calculated  from



IVL (i-i ,£Q tt\ ,t2) in a manner analogous to that shown in equations   (3)   and



 (4) for D.(£lr£o»*l) •
         A*


     The  above  dose equations involve three time perameters:  t0,  the year



of initial release of a given radionuclide; t^, the period over  which  the



dose  commitment of each release is accumulated; and t2 > t^6 final year for



which releases contributing to cumulative environmental dose commitment are



included.  For purposes of the calculations in this report,  the  parameter



tQ is 1970, ^j equals 100 years, and t2 varies from the year 1970 to 2020.
                                    A-7

-------
          APPENDIX B








ANNUAL RADIONUCLIDE




              AND




    POPULATION PROJECTIONS

-------
I.  INTRODUCTION

    This appendix is concerned with two important  factors  utilized  in

the   calculations  presented  in  this  report:  (a)   projected  annual

inventories  of  radionuclides   of   interest,   and   (b)    population

projections.    These  projections  are  based  on  information  in  the

literature (see attached bibliography).

II. ANNUAL RADICMUCUDE INVENTORIES

    For  purposes  of  this  study  the   annual   quantities   of   the

radionuclides  of  interest  potentially  available  for  release to the

environment are assumed to be those quantities present in spent  reactor

fuel  reprocessed  each  year.  Only the U.S. nuclear power industry was

considered.  The number of metric tons of fuel to be reprocessed in  any

given  year  was  estimated  by  using  data  on power generated 2 years

earlier and assuming a thermal efficiency of 0.35 and  a  burnup  of  33

gigawatt-days (thermal)  per metric ton of fuel:
   metric tons _   GW(e)      1 GW(th)     1 metric ton    365 days
     year(t)     year(t-2)   0.35 GW(e)   33 GW(th) days     year
    The  estimated  nuclear power generation and the metric tons of fuel

to be reprocessed per year are given in table B.I for the  expected  mix

of reactor types.

    There are two types of radioactive material present in spent reactor

fuel:  fission  products  and  activation  products  including  actinide

isotopes.   The  quantities  of  specific  radionuclides   present   are
                                    B-l

-------
                               Table B.I

                Estimated U.S.  nuclear power production
                  and fuel reprocessing requirements
Year
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Nuclear
electric
generation ,
GW(e)
2.6
40
110
220
420
650
1000
1360
1780
2220
2700
a
Metric tons of fuel to be reprocessed annually
LWR-U
25
. 700
1900
2700
3700
4100
3700
3700
4300
5300
6100
LWR-Pu
0
90
500
2600
3800
4100
3800
3700
4400
5400
6100
LMFBR
0
0
0
0
480
2,600
11,500
20,600
32,800
43,800
58,000
HTGR
0
0
0
100
2,420
6,600
7,800
10,000
10,000
10,000
8,800
TOTAL
25
790
2,400
5,400
10,400
17,400
26,800
38,000
51,500
64,500
79,000
     aA burnup of 33  GW-day/MT  to discharge was assumed for all fuel.
Fuel burnup is a highly variable parameter and  the value chosen repre-
sents an estimated design average for normal operation of current light
water  reactors.   Fast  breeder reactors are expected to have a design
average fuel burnup up to  100  GW-days/MT.   The value chosen may thus
greatly overestimate the fuel discharges in later years, and  the  num-
bers shown here should not  be considered  the actual expected numbers.
The resultant radionuclide  inventories  derived  from  these  calcula-
tions, as used in this report, however, are largely independent of  the
burnup  assumed  and  the  results  derived  in  this analysis are only
slightly  affected  by  this  assumption.
                                  B-2

-------
determined primarily by fuel type, amount of burnup, and time of cooling



(time between removal from the reactor and time of reprocessing).



    Tables  B.2  and  B.3 shew quantities of the potentially significant



fission product and activation radionuclides present in one  metric  ton



of  spent  fuel  with  33  GW(t)   days burnup and 150 days cooling time.



These values are considered reasonably  representative  of  all  nuclear



types.   There  is  some possibility that cooling times shorter than 150



days may be used in the future, since faster recycling of the  recovered



fuel  may  result in a significant economic benefit.  This would greatly



increase the amounts of shorter-lived  radionuclides  in  the  fuel  and



available for release, but would not significantly affect the long-lived



fission product inventories.



    The  amounts  of  actinides estimated to be present in uranium fuels



and in plutonium-recycle fuels are given in table B.4.   It  is  assumed



that  all  fuels (including those used in HTGR's)  other than uranium-235



fuels can be considered equivalent to plutonium-recycle fuels.



    Based on the amounts of spent fuel  to  be  processed,  and  on  the



estimated  quantities of radionuclides per metric ton of spent fuel, the



projected  annual  quantities  of  several  of  the   most   significant



radionuclides  in  processed  fuel  were calculated and are presented in



table B.5.



    The  release  fractions  applied  to  these  annual  inventories  to



determine   the  estimated  amounts  released  to  the  environment  are



discussed in detail in the text of this  report.   In  the  computations



carried out in this study, it was assumed that environmental releases of



                                   B-3

-------
                                              Table B.2




    Representative quantities of potentially significant fission products in spent reactor fuels
Isotope
3H 	
85Kr 	
99Tc 	
103Ru 	
106Ru 	
X fc O IWpo^»»»«»
1 £. 1 Wpo^^^
129imje 	
129X 	
131j 	
1 3**Cs— —-
135Cs 	
137Cs 	
89Sr 	
90Sr 	
91y 	
93Zr 	
95Zr 	
95Nb 	
125Sb 	
141Ce 	
14'tCe 	
lt*7pm____
155Eu 	
Half-life
(years)
12.3
10.7
2. 13x10 5
0.11
1.01
0.16
0.30
0.09
17xl06
0.02
2.05
3xl06
30.2
0.14
28.9
0.16
0.95xl06
0.18
0.10
2.73
0.09
0.78
2.62
5.0
Curies per
metric ton
800
10,500
15
180,000
820,000
6,500
25,000
13,000
0.04
2.0
100,000
1.2
106,000
100,000
60,000
190,000
2
400,000
800,000
13,000
80,000
800,000
200,000
40,000
Grams per
metric ton
0.083
27
880
5.7
240
0.36
2.7
0.42
250
< 0.01
77
1400
1200
3.5
430
7.8
490
19
21
12
2.8
250
220
87
Release
state
Gas
Gas
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Volatile
Volatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Semivolatile
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Notes
> 95% released as HTO

Oxide b.p. 200° C
Tetroxide b.p. 80° C
103mRh +106^ daughters
Oxide b.p. 750° C
127Te daughter
129Te daughter
b.p. 184° C
b.p. 184° C
Oxide b.p. 750° C

137mBa daughter

90Y daughter


95mNb + 95Nb daughters



14Upr + 14lfNd daughters


Burnup = 33 GWd(t)/MT
Cooling time = 150 days

-------
                              Table B.3

              Representative quantities of potentially
       significant activation products in spent reactor fuels
Isotope
5^ 	
55Fe 	
59Fe 	
58Co 	
60Co 	
Half-life
(years)
0.86
2.7
0.12
0.20
5.26
Curies per
metric ton
30,000
20,000
500
30,000
2,000
Grams per
metric ton
3.9
8.3
<.01
1.0
1.8
Release
state
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Solid
Burnup = 33 GWd(t)/MT
Cooling time = 150 days
                                B-5

-------
                                 Table B.4




   Representative quantities of actlnides present in spent reactor fuels
Isotope
235u 	
236u 	
238n 	
237Np 	
238pu 	
239pu 	
2fOpu 	
241pu 	
2U2pu 	
24iAm 	
243^ 	
242^ 	
21*0, 	
Half-life
(years)
710xl06
24xl06
4510xl08
2xl06
86
24,400
6,580
13
379,000
458
7,800
0.45
17.6
Total (excluding uranium)
Uranium fuels
Ci/MT
< 1
< 1
< 1
< 1
4,000
500
650
150,000
2
750
20
35,000
2,000
193,000
g/MT
8,000
4,000
950,000
600
230
8,100
2,900
1,300
510
230
100
10
' 25
14,000
Pu-recycle fuels
Ci/MT
< 1
< 1
< 1
< 1
6,000
750
1,000
300,000
5
2,000
200
250,000
25,000
585,000
g/MT
3,000
1,500
950,000
200
340
12,000
4,400
2,600
1,300
620
1,000
75
300
23,000
Burnup = 33 GWd(t)/MT
Cooling time - 150 days
                                    B-6

-------
                                             Table B.5

              Estimated annual inventories of selected nuclides  in  reprocessed fuels'
                                             (curies)
Year
1 Q7n_ _____ 	
1Q7C ____ __ __ 	
1980 	
1 QRS_ 	 _______
i Qon_ 	 _
i QQt; 	 	 	 ___
onnn 	 	 	 	 	
onf»«;_ 	 	 —
oft-i n 	 — _
ofti c 	 	 	
2020 	
Fuel
reprocessed
(MT)
oi
t.j
7Qn
/y\J
2,400
5 Ann
jtUU
i n Ann
J.U jHUU
i 7 Ann
J./ , HUU
of> snn
zo , ouu
oo ft,ftft
jo , UUU
ci cnn
Jj. , JUU
fiA ^nn
O4* ) JUU
79,000
Tritium
o rjvi n1*
Z • UXJ.U
6o_i rt5
• JXJ.U
1.9xl06
A ^-vinS
*r • JX-LU
8O-.-1 r»6
• JXJ.U
i Avi n7
J-« tX-LU
21 -wi n"7
• J.XXU
3n-wi n7
• UXJ.U
41 -.1 (\7
* J.X1U
c o_i r»7
3 • ZXJLU
6.3xl07
Krypton-85
2f.,.i (\5
• oxxu
8q~i r\6
• -JXJ-U
2.5xl07
c 7-».in7
J • / XJ.U
i i-vin8
J. . J.X1U
i Rvin8
X* oXJLU
2ftvi n8
• OXJ.U
4n-iri n8
• uxxu
c A..1 n8
J • HXXU
6Rvi n8
• OX-LU
8. 3x10 8
Iodine-129
i n
j. • \>
q o v-i ft I
J • ^AJ-U
9.6X101
o ?v1 0^
A 9-vl n2
f • &X.LU
7 n-wi n2
/ • UXJ.U
IT vi r« 3
• J.X-LU
1c_.i r\3
• DXJ.U
21 ..1 ft 3
• J.X.LU
o A-win3
Z. OXJ-U
3. 2x10 3
Plutonium-239
i Qvi n1*
JL • -7XJ.U
R QvinS
J • 7XJLVJ
l.SxlO6
A iv-in^
H • XXJ.U
7 R-vl n6
/ • OXJ-VJ
10-..1 ft?
• JXJ.U
2ftv1 ft?
• uxxu
2 Qvi n7
. 7XJ.U
3 Qvi n7
• 7X-LU
Aftvi n7
• OXJ-U
5. 9x10 7
Plutonium-241
7 Svl 0^
2 4v1 0^
7.2xl08
1 fivl 0^
q ivin9
J • J-XJ-U
59vi n9
• ZXJ.U
8nvi n9
• UXJ.U
11 vi nl 0
. J.XJ.U
IC-,1 ftl 0
• JXJ.U
IQvi nl 0
• yxxu
2.3xl010
Tiased  on Pu-recycle  fuels  and  reactor type distribution in  table  A.I.    (33 GWd(t)/MT  burnup  and
 150  days cooling period.)

-------
tritium,  krypton-85  and  iodine-129  occurred  only  from reprocessing



plants.  Releases of the actinides were  assumed  to  occur  from  other



stages of the fuel cycle as well as from reprocessing plants.



III.     POPUIATION PROJECTIONS



    A.   Regional



    The regional population growth within 80 km  (50 miles)  of  a  plant



was estimated from population growth projections for reactor sites given



in  environmental  reports  submitted  to  the  AEC  by  electric  power



companies.  These indicated  a  regional  population  doubling  time  of



approximately 40 years.  This value was also considered to be applicable



to fuel reprocessing plants and other nuclear facilities.



    B.   United States



    The population projection used for the United  States  is  shown  in



figure  B.I.    This  growth  curve  approximates  the  1970  Series  C



projections of  the Bureau of the Census with the  added  variation  that



the   population will  level  off  at  400  million.   A  straight  line



approximation to the curve was used to simplify calculations.



    C.   World



    The world population growth was estimated from median values from  a



United Nations projection.  The 1970 world population was estimated as



3.56  x 10^ with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent.
                                     B-8

-------
          500
T
vo
                     1980
1990
2000
2010      2020
    Year
2030
2040
2050
2060
                                Figure B.I  United States population projection

-------
 Burch, W.D., Bigelow, J.E.,  and  King,  L. J.,  Transuranium  Processing
 Plant  Seminannual  Report  of  Production,  Status and Plans for Period
 Ending June 30, 1971, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-4718, pp.  29-
 30, (December 1971).

 trandall,  J.L.,  Tons of Curium and Pounds of Californium, Presented at
 American  Nuclear  Society  International  IVfeeting,  Washington,   D.C.,
 November 10-15, 1968.
•
 Deonigi,  D.E.,  Formation  of  Transuranium Isotopes in Power Reactors,
 Battelle Northwest Laboratory, BNWL-140 Rev. 1, (January 1966).

 Deonigi,  D.E.,  McKee,  R.W.,  and  Haffner,  Isotope  Production   and
 Availability  from  Power Reactors, Battelle Northwest Laboratory, BNWL-
 716,  (July 1968).

 Drumheller,  L.,  Pacific  Northwest  laboratory  Division  of   Isotope
 Development  Programs  Quarterly  Report  November 1968 to January 1969,
 Battelle Northwest Laboratory, BNWL-1010, (February 1969).

 Hbfmann, P.L., "U. S. Civilian  Nuclear  Power  Cost-Benefit  Analysis,"
 Fourth  United National International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of
 Atomic Energy, Geneva, Switzerland, 6-16 September 1971, A/CONF.

 Nodvil, R. J., Supplementary Report on Evaluation of  Mass  Spectrometric
 and  Radiochemical Analyses of Yankee Core I Fuel, Including Isotopes of
 Elements Thorium Through Curium, WZAP-6086,  (August 1969).

 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Siting of Fuel  Reprocessing  Plants  and
 Waste Management Facilities, ORNL-4451,  (July 1970).

 U.  S.  Atomic  Fjiergy  Commission,  Nuclear Power 1973-2000, WASH-1139,
  (December 1972).

 U. S. Department of Conmerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States,
 1969.

 U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Population Estimates and
 Projections,  Series P-25, No. 493,  (December 1972).

 U. S. Federal Power Ccmmission, The 1970 National Power Survey, (1971).

 United Nations  Statistical  Office,  Demographic  Yearbook,  Publishing
 Service, United Nations, New York,  (1971).

 United   Nations  Statistical  Office,  Vforld  Population  Prosp^j-g  **_
 Assessed in 1963, Population Studies No. 41, United Nations,  New  York,
 (1966).

                                    B-10

-------
      APPENDIX C
ENVIPONMENTAL TRANSPORT

-------
I.  INTRODUCTICN



    Radioactive materials released to the environment  become  dispersed



in  the  surrounding media (air, water, etc.) and ultimately may produce



health effects in man.  A factor necessary to assess  the  impact  of  a



given  radionuclide release on populations is the transport factor which



converts quantity released to concentration of  the  radionuclide  in  a



specific  medium  at  a  given  location and time following its release.



This appendix discusses this factor,  as  applied  in  the  calculations



carried out in this study.



    For  reasons  discussed  below,  different  environmental  transport



models were used for: (a) local populations (defined as those within  80



km,  or  approximately  50 miles, of the point of release); (b)  regional



populations  (including  portions  of  the  eastern  United  States  and



Canada); and (c) the world population.  In developing these models, only



the environmental pathways of principal importance from the viewpoint of



human uptake and potential health impact have been considered.



II. TRANSPORT TO LOCAL POPULATIONS



    Members of the local population around  a  source  of  radionuclides



discharged  to  the  environment are exposed to higher concentrations of



these radioactive materials than is the average individual in  the  U.S.



In  general,  these  higher  concentrations  arise because environmental



transport is at an  early  stage  and  ultimate  dilution  has  not  yet



occurred.   The  doses delivered to local populations during this "first



pass" of an effluent will usually constitute a substantial  fraction  of



the  entire  environmental  dose  commitment that accrues to these local




                                    C-l

-------
populations.   For this reason, these local populations are considered a

special case for which the initial contribution  to  environmental  dose

commitment is calculated separately.

    For the nuclides considered  (with the exception of tritium) airborne

releases constitute the most important release mode.  For tritium, since

doses  resulting  from waterborne releases are on the average comparable

to  those  from  airborne  releases,  all  tritium  was  assumed  to  be

discharged  to  the  atmosphere.  Annual meteorological conditions for a

variety  of  representative  facilities  were  analyzed.    These   data
                                                                      _o
indicated  an  average value for  (x/Q) at a distance of 3 km of 5 x 10
      3
uCi/cm  per VCi/s for a representative facility.  This  value  was  used

for all airborne-release calculations in this study.

    The  effect  of local population distribution on the average dose to

an  individual within 80 km of a facility can be calculated theoretically

by  assuming a "typical" population distribution, or it can be determined

directly from actual or projected populations around real  plant  sites.

For this  study an analysis of the results of calculations of doses due

to  gaseous effluents for real and projected populations  at  50  reactor

sites  was  used.   These  results  yielded  an  average  value of 0.028

rem/person within  80  km  per  rem/person  at  3  km.   This  ratio  is
                                   \
sufficiently insensitive to variations for specific radionuclides to be

representative of all  long-lived nuclides in airborne releases that were

addressed  by   this   study.     Factors   for   individual   long-lived

radionuclides  at specific facilities may vary by as much as a factor of

5 from the average given above.


                                     02

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    The  population within 80 km of a nuclear facility site was taken as



the average of population values  for  the  above-mentioned  50  reactor



sites,  obtained  primarily  from  environmental  reports.   The average



population around a site was found to be  1.5  x  10   people  in  1980.



Population  density  around  individual  plants  can vary from this by a



factor of 3.  The average doubling time of these populations is about 40



years.  For purposes of calculating age specific factors, 2.5 percent of



the population is taken to be under 1 year of age, 45 percent between  1



and 20 years, and the remainder over 20 years of age.



III.     TRANSPORT TO REGIONAL POPUIATTCNS



    The transport of radionuclides in the environment is dependent  upon



both their physical and chemical states.  It is assumed that each of the



radionuclides  considered  in  this  report  is  released  as  a gaseous



effluent.  These effluents spread from the local region to  major  parts



or  all  of the eastern United States and Canada and, in some cases, are



then transported over the entire globe.  The pathway leading to doses to



these population differs for each radionuclide  considered.   Iodine-129



and  the  actinides  are  assumed  to  produce population exposures only



through buildup in soils in the United States.  Tritium  is  assumed  to



expose  only  the population in the eastern United States initially, and



ultimately the entire population of the northern hemisphere.  Krypton is



assumed to expose populations in the eastern United  States  and  Canada



initially, and ultimately the world population.
                                    C-3

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A.  Tritium

    It is assumed that tritium is released as  a  gaseous  effluent  and

that  a  portion  of  the  amount released enters the hydrological cycle

through deposition by rainout over the eastern United States  (1.5 x  10
   2
*mi ),  where   it  is  diluted by the average annual rainfall  (40 inches)

over this area and then works its way through soil  into  river  systems

and   finally  into   the  oceans.   With  sane  further  dilution  by

uncontaminated water  this  rainout becomes  the  water  concentration  to

which the population  of the  eastern United States  (80% of the total U.S.

population) is initially exposed.  The balance of the amount  released is

assumed  to   rainout  directly  into the oceans where it is augmented by

tritium  from  river outfalls  and gives rise to  population  exposures  in

the  northern  hemisphere via  the hydrological cycle.

     The  annual water  concentration  of  tritium in the eastern United

States is  taken to be the  yearly input to the environment diluted by the

average  annual rainfall  over  the  eastern  United  States,  with  an

additional dilution factor of  one-half  applied to take into account

dilution of tritium by  uncontaminated   rainfall  and  water  from  deep

artesian  wells,  as  well  as that portion of tritium effluents that does

not fall out over the eastern United States but passes directly out over

 the eastern coast to the Atlantic Ocean.

B.  Krypton-85

     Part of the population of the eastern United States  and  Canada  is

 exposed to air concentrations of krypton-85 as it passes from the points

 of  release  to the Atlantic Ocean on its first pass around the world in


                                    C-4

-------
general  meteorological  patterns  of flow.  The dose from this exposure



pathway was derived from the results of a study  recently  performed  at



the   National  Oceanic  and  Atmospheric  Administration.   That  study



estimated that for a plant located in Morris,  Illinois,  releasing  one



curie  of  krypton-85 per year, the population-weighted concentration on



its first pass over the eastern United States and Canada to the Atlantic



Ocean is 2.5 x 10    man-Ci/cm .  For purposes of this study, this value



was considered sufficiently representative for all release points.



C.  Iodine-129



    As a first approximation, all iodine-129  releases  are  assumed  to



deposit uniformly over the eastern United States and to assume a uniform



equilibrium distribution with stable iodine in the soil to a depth of 20



cm.   This  mixture  is assumed to give rise to the specific activity of



iodine-129 in the diet to which all persons in this part of the  country



will  be  exposed.   The  movement of iodine-129 in the biosphere is not



well documented at the present time.  For the purpose of  this  analysis



no  further  dilution  or reconcentration in the environment was assumed



beyond this equilibrium mixing in the first 20 on of soil.  Thus,  these



estimates   of   population   exposure  to  iodine-129  are  subject  to



considerable uncertainty.  However, because of its  long  half-life  (17



million  years),  even  if a substantial fraction of iodine-129 migrates



into environmental sinks, the total impact of  environmental  iodine-129



may be considerably larger than that calculated here for 100 years only.
                                    05

-------
D.   Actinides



     The actinides are assumed to build up in the eastern United  States



in a manner similar to that postulated for iodine-129, but with the only



exposure  pathway  taken  to be inhalation of resuspended material.  The



fraction of actinides released that deposits on the soil was taken to be



0.5 for this study; the balance was assumed to rainout over the  oceans,



where  it remains unavailable for human uptake.  The assumption that the



actinides are uniformly distributed over the eastern  United  States  is



made  for  simplicity  in  calculating  exposures.   It  would have been



equally simple to assume a uniform distribution of population and a non-



uniform dispersion of actinides.  The essential question for  evaluating



the  acceptability  of  either of these assumptions is in what direction



does the actual population density depart from the average value for the



eastern United States at locations where the actinides are  most  likely



to  be  initially  deposited.   A  review of population densities in the



vicinities of three existing fuel  reprocessing  plants  indicates  that



average  population densities are generally higher, by up to an order of



magnitude, in the vicinities of such plants.  However, in  view  of  the



possibility   of  releases  from  a  wide  variety  of  facilities,  and



operations such as transportation and waste disposal which may occur  in



sparsely  populated regions, as well as of migration of the actinides to



yield a more uniform dispersal, it was judged  acceptable  to  make  the



less conservative assumption of uniform deposition for this analysis.
                                   06

-------
IV. TRANSPORT TO WORLD POPMATIONS


    Releases of krypton-85 and tritium are dispersed on a  global  scale


and  result  in  exposures of the entire world's population.  Doses from


releases of iodine-129 and the actinides were assumed to  be  restricted


to the United States population.


A.  Krypton-85


    This effluent attains close to a uniform distribution in the world's


atmosphere in less than a year following  its  release.   The  worldwide

                                                  f

concentration  of krypton-85 can be estimated by diluting a release into

                                     21
the world's  atmosphere  (5.14  x  10    g;  sea  level  air  density  =


0.00129 g/cm ).   For  the  purposes of this study, the small correction


required for non-uniform distribution during the  first  year  following


release  has  been  ignored,  except for the previously calculated first


pass doses delivered to local and regional populations.


B.  Tritium


    The worldwide dose due to tritium releases is estimated by  diluting


the  amount  released  into  the  circulating  waters  of  the  northern

                  18
hemisphere (7 x 10   liters) and assuming that the northern hemisphere's


population (80 percent of the world's  population)  is  exposed  to  the


resulting concentration.
                                   0-7

-------
             APPENDIX D









         CONVERSION FACTORS




                 FOR




RADIOLOGICAL DOSE AND HEALTH EFFECTS

-------
I.   INTRODUCTION



     Two factors required to assess the impact of radionuclide  releases



to  the environment on pqpulation-s are:  (1) a medium concentration-to-



dose conversion factor, and (2) a factor for converting population  dose



to  an  expected  number  of  a  specific  adverse health effect.  These



factors are discussed below for  tritium,  krypton-85,  iodine-129,  and



selected actinides.



II.  MEDIA COKmm&TION-TO-DOSE CONVERSION FACTORS



     Dose estimates are sensitive to  assumptions  made  concerning  the



mode of exposure, the amount of radioactivity inhaled or ingested daily,



the  fraction  of  activity  retained  in the organ of interest, and the



residence time of the activity in various  parts  of  the  body.   Other



necessary  elements  entering  into  dose computations are the physicial



considerations of organ mass and radionuclide  distribution  within  the



organ.   In  the  present  state  of  the  art,  the complexities of the



radionuclide distribution within organs are nearly  always  circumvented



by assuming a uniform distribution.  Information concerning other inputs



is  based  mainly  on  empirical evidence, gathered largely from fallout



studies and medical investigations.  In order to reduce  the  number  of



variables  to  be  considered  in  dose  calculations, the International



Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has postulated a  "standard



man";  i.e.,  a  model  system having standardized biological parameters



based on either average values  or  best  estimates  as  listed  in  the



scientific  literature.   The  standard  man  is  a  hypothetical  adult
                                  D-l

-------
industrial worker and it is not  clear  to  what  extent  parameters  so



defined are applicable to an environmentally exposed population.



     For particular radionuclides, the sensitivity of certain age groups



may  be  the  limiting  factor.   For example, in the case of iodine-131



exposures, the Federal Radiation Council has  defined  children  as  the



most  sensitive  population  group; therefore, the biplogical parameters



used in the media-to-dose conversion factors for this  radionuclide  are



not  based  on  standard man.  Rather, models appropriate for children's



thyroid glands and thyroid metabolism have been  used.   For  the  other



radionuclides  considered  here,  little is known concerning differences



between adults and children.  Such differences are seldom considered  in



the  literature.   Thus, the conversion factors listed in the subsequent



sections, while  adequate,  must  be  considered  only  as  first  order



approximations   and   not   as   definitive  estimates  of  doses  from



environmentally distributed radionuclides.



     Media conoentration-to-dose conversion factors used in this  report



are  listed  in  Table  D.I  and  discussed  below for the radionuclides



considered in this report—krypton-85, tritium, iodine-129, and  certain



of the actinides.
                                   D-2

-------
                                Table D.I

         Summary of air ooncentration-to-dose conversion factors
       Radionuclide
       SH-

     I29j_
     239^.
Critical Organ
      body

Gonads  (female)

Gonads  (male)

Lung

Skin

Whole body

Infant thyroid

Adult thyroid

Lung
  Conversion Factora
(rem/yr)/(pCi/m3  air)
                                                     1.5x10
                                                           ~
                                                     1.5xlO
                                                           ~8
                                                     2.0xlO
                                                           ~8
                                                     3.0xlO
                                                           ~8
                                                    SO.OxlO
                                                           "8
                                                           ~
         15

          4.6
     aThese  factors  are for continuous exposure to concentrations
      expressed in pCi/m3 of air.

A.   Krypton-85

     About 99 percent of the decay energy of krypton-85, a noble gas, is

dissipated  by  beta  particles  which  have  no  potential   for   deep

penetration in tissue.

     Kirk  has  recently  reviewed the literature on krypton-85 dose and

established relationships between the krypton-85  concentration  in  air

and  the  resultant  doses to various organs.  A review of these results

shows which radiations are important.  For the whole body, dose and risk

estimates can be based on a consideration of external photon  exposures,

i.e., gamma rays and bremsstrahlung.  For genetic risk calculations, the
                                  D-3

-------
gonadal dose, in the case of  males,  is  from  exposure  from  external



photons;  while  for  females, the whole body dose estimate can be used.



Dose estimates for the lung are based on internal  beta  dose  plus  the



total body gatrroa-ray dose.  Skin dose is  based on the dose delivered by



external  beta  radiation  after  making  an allowance for the shielding



provided  by  clothing  and  the  nonviable  epithelium  (a  75  percent



reduction of dose).



B.   Tritium



     Dose estimates from tritium  exposure  are  usually  based  on  the



assumption  that  the  isotope  is  contained  in  body  water.  Chronic



exposure to environmental tritium, however, has been shown to result  in



the  incorporation  of tritium into organic molecules from which tritium



is lost at a slower rate than from body water.  If it is  assumed  that,



under equilibrium conditions, all body hydrogen (7.0 kg in standard man)



is  uniformly  labelled,  a  sustained concentration of 1 pCi/liter body



water would lead  to a body burden of 63 pCi, as opposed to 43 pCi if, as



in the  ICRP model, distribution  in  body  water  alone  is  considered.



Evans   found  that tritium was not, in fact, quite uniformly distributed



through deer tissues.  Assuming his observed factors to be applicable to



man, he calculated a body  burden  of  60  pCi  for  standard  man  with



sustained concentration  of  1  pCi/liter  in  body water, i.e., a body



burden  a  factor of 1.4 higher than that based  on  the  ICRP  ntodel.   A



factor  of  1.5   (63/43), although only marginally different from Evans,



was  selected as an appropriate value for this analysis.
                                   D-4

-------
     Since it is  apparent  that,  under  chronic  exposure  conditions,



tritium  may become incorporated into the genetic material (DNA), it has



been suggested that the relative biological effectiveness of tritium  in



terms  of  genetic  effects may be greater than unity as a result of DNA



degradation from transmutation and recoil processes in addition to  that



due  to absorbed energy from ionization processes due to beta emissions.



However, from both experimental and theoretical considerations,  it  has



been  concluded  that  it  is the absorbed dose to mammalian cell nuclei



from incorporated internuclear tritium which  determines  quantitatively



the degree of effect.  The assumption made in these calculations is that



the appropriate value for the quality factor for tritium dose equivalent



estimation  is  1.0  as recently adopted by both the National Council on



Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the ICRP.



     A sustained concentration of 1 pCi tritium per liter of body  water



would  thus  be  equivalent  to  a  specific  activity (assuming uniform



labelling of all body hydrogen) of 9x10"3  pCi tritium/g  hydrogen,  and



would  deliver  an  annual  dose  to body tissues of approximately 10"^



mrem.



     The concentration of tritium in body water resulting from  exposure



to tritium in air is obtained by diluting the daily intake of tritium by



inhalation  into the 43 liters of body water with a biological half-life



of 12 days.  This amount of tritium is doubled to account for absorption



of tritium through the skin.  This leads to an annual dose of 1.7xlO~3



mrem for an air concentration of 1 pCi tritium/m3.
                                  D-5

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C.   Iodine-129

     Atmospheric releases of iodine-129 may result in  its  accumulation

in  the  thyroid  glands  of  persons living in the area surrounding the

point of release.  For radioiodines, the most  significant  pathway  for

exposure of man is generally the grass-cow-milk chain, particularly when

milk  is not diluted with uncontaminated supplies.  Direct deposition on

foliage is likely to be the most important  route  of  contamination  of

edible herbage.

     Because  of  the long half-life of iodine-129, plant uptake of this

radionuclide from the soil should also be considered.  In general, it is

assumed that such plant uptake will  be  proportional  to  its  specific

activity   (curies  of iodine-129 per gram of stable iodine) in the soil.

The specific activity in the soil at  a  specific  location  will  be  a

function  of  distance  from  the  point of release and the buildup from

continuing releases.  At any given time the  specific  activity  in  the

ecological chain will be somewhat less that the specific activity of the

iodine-129 in the air.  In many cases the specific activity will be much

less  because  of  the  large stable iodine reservoir in soils and other

parts of  the terrestrial pathway.

      For  a given concentration  of  iodine-129  in  milk,  it  has  been

determined  that a 6-month-old child would sustain the highest dose when

considering the exposure of individuals to  this  radionuclide  via  the
                                                              s
grass-cow-milk  chain.  According to Durbin, the average daily intake of

whole milk by U.S. children during the first year of life  is  about  760

ml.  Appropriate representative data to define the relationship between



                                   D-6

-------
the  amount  of iodine ingested by a 6-month-old child and its resultant


concentration in the thyroid gland are:  thyroid weight, 1.8 g; fraction
                •

of ingested iodine in thyroid, 0.35, and biological half-life of  iodine


in  thyroid,  23  d.   Equivalent  data  for  adults, appropriate to the


calculation of average population doses, are:  daily  milk  consumption,


500 ml; thyroid weight, 20 g; fraction ingested reaching critical organ,


0.3;  and  biological  half-life in thyroid, 138 d.  Use of these values


yields an annual dose to the adult thyroid of 1.9 mrem for an iodine-129


concentration of 1 pCi/liter of milk.  The corresponding annual dose  to


the thyroid of children whose daily consumption of milk during the first


year of life contains 1 pCi/liter is 6.3 mrem.


     To   determine  milk  concentrations  from  given  ground  and  air


concentrations, use was made  of  the  following  factors  derived  from


references by Bryant (1970) and the Federal Radiation Council Report No.


1:


     (a)  2.4x103 pCi/liter of milk per pCi/m3 of air; and


     (b)  0.28 pCi/liter of milk per pCi/m2 of ground surface.


For  these  intermediate  conversion  factors,  it  was assumed that the


grazing area for a dairy  cow  is  80  m2  per  day  and  that  airborne


radioiodine has a deposition velocity of 0.5 cm/s.


     The  annual  thyroid *dose  rate  corresponding  to  unit  specific


activity (1 pCi iodine-129/g total iodine)  in the thyroid is 0.44 rem/yr


for an adult and 0.24 rem/yr for a 6-month-old  child.   Adoption  of  a


value of 0.44 rem/yr as the dose delivered to a thyroid containing 1 pCi


iodine-129/g  total  iodine  would  thus  appear  to  be  a conservative
                                  D-7

-------
estimate for all cases.  This  factor  was  applied  in  conversions  of



medium  concentrations to thyroid dose rate for the long-term assessment



of iodine-129 releases.



D.   Plutonium-239 and Other Actinides



     The potential health risks from inhalation of a radionuclide depend



on whether it is in a soluble or an insoluble form.  In this report,  it



was  assumed  that  all  actinides  were  in an insoluble form.  Present



experience indicates that this is the case for  plutonium  effluents  to



the atmosphere from fuel reprocessing plants.



     In  this report, dose estimates from inhaled actinides are based on



the new ICRP lung model.  However, the biological half-life of insoluble



actinides in the lung  (pulmonary region) was assumed to be  1,000  days.



Using  this  mode,  sustained  exposure  to  an  air  concentration of 1



pCi/m3  of insoluble plutonium-239 would lead to a dose rate of  12  rem



per  year  in the pulmonary region.  It is assumed that the risk to this



region is representative of the total risk to the lung.



     Media-conoentxaticto-to-dose conversion factors for  other  actinide



radionuclides  relative  to  plutonium-239  were computed by taking into



account  the  effective  energy  absorbed  per  disintegration  and  the



physical  half-life  of  each radionuclide, as given in ICRP Publication



Nbs.   2 and 6.  These relative conversion factors are  listed  in  table



D.2
                                  D-8

-------
                               Table D.2


           Air oanoentration-to-liong dose conversion factors
     for actinide radionuclides relative to that for plutonium-239
             Radionuclide
     238^	



     239^	
Pelative conversion factor
                                                1


                                                0.001
                                                 i

                                                0.25


                                                0.17


                                                0.33
      Flutonium-239  conversion factor  =   (12 rem/yr)/(l pCi/m3).


     It  is realized that there are a number of complexities involved in


the computation of doses resulting  from  inhalation  of  radionuclides.


For  example,  the  health  risk  resulting  from  a  given  amount of a


radionuclide in the pulmonary region of the lung is dependent  upon  its


distribution  as  well  as  the  total  amount present.  However, due to


limitations of current models, the amount of radionuclide in  the  organ


was assumed to be uniformly distributed.  In the case of alpha emitters,


such  averaging  is  obviously  inappropriate  if  there  are only a few


particles present.  ICRP Publication No. 6 recognized this  and  states,


".. .in  the  case of the lung, an estimate of the dose equivalent to the


critical tissue determined merely by the product of quality  factor  and


mean  dose may be greatly in'error, but further experimental evidence is


needed before a better estimate can be made	"

-------
     For the purposes of this report, inhalation was the only  route  of

intake considered for plutonium-239 and other actinides.  Because of the

assumed  insoluble  form  for  the actinides, doses resulting from other

pathways were considered to be of relatively minor importance.

III. DQSE-TQ-RISK CONVERSION FACTORS

     The numerical values of the dose-to-risk conversion factors used in

this study were derived  primarily  from  the  recent   (November,  1972)

National Academy of Sciences Carmittee on Biological Effects of Ionizing

Radiation   (BEER)  report.  It is emphasized that although these numbers

may be used as the best available for the purpose of  making  risk-  and

cost-benefit  analyses,  they  cannot  be used to accurately predict the

number of casualties.  For a given  dose  equivalent,  the  BEIR  report

estimates  a  range  for  the health impact per million exposed persons.

For example, the BEIR results frcm a  study  of  the  major  sources  of

cancer mortality data yield an absolute risk1  estimate of 54-132 deaths

annually  per  106 person-rems for a 27-year followup period.  Depending

on the details of the risk model used,  the  BEIR  Committee' s  relative

risk2   estimate is 160-450 deaths per 106 person-rems.  It is seen that

these estimates differ by a factor of 3  to  4,  even  when  applied  to

sample populations studied on the basis of the same dose rates.
 1Absolute risk estimates  are based on  the  reported  number  of. cancer
  deaths per  rad  that have been observed  in exposed population groups,
  e.g.,  Hiroshima,  Nagasaki,  etc.

 2Relative risk estimates  are based on the  percentage  increase  of  the
  ambient cancer mortality per  rem.
                                  D-10

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     The  application  of  the BEIR risk estimates to exposures at lower



dose rates and  to  population  groups  more  heterogeneous  than  those



studied  increases  the  uncertainty in the risk estimates.  Considering



the limitations of presently available data and the lack of an  accepted



theory   of  radiocarcinogenesis,  emphasis  should  be  placed  on  the



differences in health impacts projected by this analysis rather than  on



the absolute numbers.  Where the absolute numbers must be used for risk-



cost-benefit balancing, it should be remembered that these health effect



estimates are likely to be revised as new information becomes available.



     A  basic  assumption  used  in  the  derivation of the dose-to-risk



conversion  factors  was  the  existence  of  a   no-threshold,   linear



relationship between absorbed dose and biological effects.



     Following  are  discussions  concerning the dose-to-risk conversion



factors for the radionuclides of interest in this report.



A.   Krypton-85



1.   Total Body Dose-to-Somatic Risk



     The  BEIR  report  calculates  the  cancer   (including   leukemia)



mortality  risk  from  whole  body  radiation  exposure by two different



models.  The absolute risk mode predicts about 100 cancer deaths per  106



person-rems; the relative risk model predicts between 160 and 450, or an



average  of about 300 deaths per 106.  The average value of the absolute



and relative risk models is 200, which is  close  to  the  estimates  of



cancer  mortality  risk listed as "most likely" by the Committee.  Since



some types of cancer are not always lethal, cancer mortality  is  not  a
                                  D-ll

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measure  of  the  total cancer risk, which the Connittee states as being
about twice that of the cancer mortality risk.
     For krypton-85 whole-body doses, the following  conversion  factors
were used in this report:
     a.  200 cancer deaths per population whole body dose of 106
         person-rems, and
     b.  400 total cancer cases per population whole body dose of 106
         per-rems.
2.   Gonadal Dose-to-Genetic Risk
     The range of the risk estimates for genetic effects  set  forth  in
the BEER  report is so large that such risks are better considered on a
relative basis for  different  exposure situations  than   in  terms  of
absolute numbers.  The range of uncertainty  for the "doubling dose"  (the
dose  required to double the natural mutation rate) is 10-fold  (from 20
to 200  rad); and because of  the   additional   uncertainties  in   (1)  the
fraction  of   presently  observed genetic   effects  due  to  background
radiation, and (2) the fraction of deleterious mutations eliminated  per
generation,  the  overall  uncertainty  is   about  a factor of 25.  In a
population of  one million assumed to receive 30 years of exposure  prior
to reproduction,  the  total number of live births showing very serious
genetic effects  such  as   congenital  anomalies,  constitutional   and
degenerative diseases, etc., is estimated at somewhere between 1,800 and
44,000  if  the  population is  exposed continuously at a dose  rate of 1 ran
per year.  This applies to  an equilibrium condition, which occurs after
continuous exposure of 5  or more generations.   As  such,  there  are
expected   to   occur 60 to 1,500 cases per year at a dose rate of one rem
                                   D-12

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per year, if a 30-year regeneration period is assumed.  The risk to  the



first generation following initial exposure is about a factor of 5 less.



     For  the  purposes  of  this  study,  the geometric average of this



annual range was used  as  the  value  of  the  dose-to-risk  conversion



factor,  that is, 300 effects per year for a gonadal dose of 106 person-



rem per year.  This conversion factor was considered  to  be  applicable



only for persons up to 30 years of age.



     In  the  HEIR  report the notion of "genetic death" as a measure of



radiation risk is rejected.  Risk analysis was in  terms  of  early  and



delayed  effects  observed  postpartum and not in early abortion, still-



births, or reduced fecundity.  Many of the postpartum effects,  however,



lead  directly  to  infant mortality.  Because of the seriousness of the



genetic effects considered here  (e.g,  mongolism),  the  emotional  and



financial stress would be somewhat similar to death impact.



     less  serious genetic effects have also been considered by the BEIR



Cottmittee.  These have been quantified under the  category  "unspecified



ill  health." The Conmittee states that a continuous exposure of one rem



per year would lead to an increase in the number of ill health cases  by



3 to 30 percent.  These less serious genetic effects were  not taken  into



consideration in this study.



3.   Lung Dose-to-Cancer Risk



     Due to the insufficient data for the younger age groups,  estimates



of  lung  cancer mortality in the BEIR report are only for that fraction



of the population of age 10 or more.  For the risk estimate made  below,



it  is  assumed  that  the  fractional  abundance for lung tumors in the






                                   D-13

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younger group is the same as that in the older one.  Qi an absolute risk



basis lung cancer mortality is about 26 deaths per annum per 10s persons



irradiated  continuously  at  a  dose rate of 1 rem per year.  This is a



minimum value.  The BEIR report states that the absolute risk  estimates



may  be  too low because observation times for exposed persons are still



relatively short compared to the long latent  period  for  lung  cancer.



Furthermore,  lung cancer risks calculated on the basis of relative risk



would be larger.  For the risk estimates made here, it was assumed  that



the  value  of  the  applicable  conversion factor was twice that of the



absolute risk value, as was the  case  with  whole-body  exposures.   As



such,  the  lung  dose  conversion  factor was taken to be 50 lung cancer



deaths per population lung dose of  106 person-rems.



4.   Skin Dose-to-Cancer Risk



     The dose to the skin delivered by krypton-85  is  a  factor  of  30



higher  than  that  to  other  organs.   However,  there is currently no



epidemiolcgical evidence of  actual risk  from  the  skin  dose  levels



considered  here.   This  does  not rule  out  the  linear  dose-effect



assumption for  skin cancer; but the BEIR Committee found that  from  the



extensive  evidence  they  examined, "numerical estimates of risk at low



dose levels would not   seem  to  be warranted."  However,  rather  than



defining  a   zero risk  per rad for  any radiation insult from krypton-85,



an upper limit  of risk  is proposed.



     For the purposes of this analysis the following  conversion  factor



was  considered to  be indicative of an upper limit of risk from skin



exposures:  3 skin cancers per year for  an  annual  skin  dose  of  106
                                    D-14

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person-rems.   This  assumes  that an individual will accrue 30 years of



exposure and that the incidence of skin cancer will be 10 percent of all



radiation-produced cancers except leukemia, breast,  lung,  G.I.  tract,



and bone cancers.  It should be noted that skin cancers are rarely fatal



and usually not very debilitating.



B.   Tritium



1.   Total Body Dose-to-Somatic Risk



     The somatic effects from tritium  doses  are  not  expected  to  be



unique.  They are the same as described above for krypton-85.  Hence the



same conversion factors are applicable.



2.   Gonadal Dose-to-Genetic Risk



     Some experiments with bacteria have shown that the  location  of  a



tritium  atom  on  a  particular DNA. base can enhance the mutation rate.



However, if it is assumed that tritium labeling is a random  phenomenon,



the  percentage for such locations that are specifically labeled- will be



extremely small at the exposure levels considered here.  Therefore,  the



gonadal dose-to-genetic risk conversion factor for krypton-85 is assumed



to  be  also  appropriate  for  estimating the genetic risk from tritium



exposures.



C.   Iodine-129



     Radioiodine intakes by humans are  concentrated  primarily  in  the



thyroid.   Because  of  this  and  other relevant factors the thyroid is



considered to be the  critical  organ  for  doses  resulting  from  such



intakes.   Doses  to  other  organs  are  orders of magnitude less.  Two



health effects follow high level exposures of thyroid tissue to ionizing
                                  D-15

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radiation:  benign neoplasms and thyroid cancer.  Though the former  are



a  more  cannon radiation effect, only the more serious risk from cancer



is considered in this study.



     Children are more susceptible than adults to  thyroid  damage  from



radiation  exposures.   Thyroid  cancer, however, is not usually a fatal



disease for young persons, but mortality from it approaches  25  percent



for persons well past middle age.



     The  BEIR  report  provides  risk estimates only for morbidity (not



mortality) and only  for  persons  under  9  years  of  age.   From  the



Hiroshima  data  and other studies it would appear that for persons over



20 years old the radiation-induced  thyroid  cancer  incidence  is  much



lower and may approach zero.



     Conversion  factors  used in this study are based on risk estimates



described in ICRP Publication No. 8  as  well  as  on  the  mean  values



derived from the BEIR Committee's various estimates of incidence per rem



of  dose.   Infants and fetuses, comprising approximately 2.5 percent of



the population, are the most sensitive group.  For this age group, about



150 thyroid cancers  may  accrue  annually  per  106  person-rem  annual



exposure  to  the  thyroid.   For  the  approximately  40 percent of the



population that is in the 1-19 year age group it  is  assumed  that  the



incidence  is  a factor of about 4 less, and that for the balance of the



population, it is a factor of 30 less.



     Following are the  values  used  in  this  report  for  the  factor



converting   thyroid   dose  to  number  of  cases  of  thyroid  cancers



 (morbidity/ not mortality):






                                  D-16

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     a.  Less than age 1:



         150 cases per population thyroid dose of 106 person-rems.



     b.  Ages 1-19:



         35 cases per population thyroid dose of 106 person-rems.



     c.  Ages greater than 20:



         5 cases per population thyroid dose of 106 person-rems.



     It is unlikely that the annual number of cases  of  mortality  from



these  cancers  would be much larger than 25 percent of the total number



of cases.



D.   Plutonium and other Actinides



     For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that the  conversion



factor  for  lung  dose-to-cancer risk for plutonium and other actinides



has the same numerical value as that for  krypton-85;  namely,  50  lung



cancer deaths per population lung dose of 106 person-rems.  It should be



recognized  that  the  use  of  doses calculated on the basis of uniform



distribution of actinides in the lung introduces uncertainties  in  this



dose-to-risk  conversion  factor, since the risk data is based upon such



doses being delivered to the basal cells of  the  bronchial  epithelium.



Revision of this factor may  be  necessary  when  more  adequate  models



become  available  for  dynamic  lung  clearance  and any differences in



effects due to non-uniform dose distribution.
                                    D-17

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Bair, W. J., Plutonium Inhalation Studies, Battelle Northwest Laboratory,
BNWL 1221, 1970.

Bond,  V.P.,  and  Feinendegen,   L.E.,   Intranuclear   3H   Thymidine,
Dosimetric,  Radiobiological  and  Radiation  Protection Aspects, Health
Physics, Vol. 12 pp. 1007-1020, 1966.

Bryant, P.M., Derivation of Working Limits for Continuous  Release  Rate
of Iodine-131 to Atmosphere in Milk Producing Area, Health Physics, Vol.
10, pp. 249-257, 1964.

Bryant,  P.M., Data for Assessments Concerning Controlled and Accidental
Releases of  131I and 137Cs to Atmosphere, Health Physics, Vol.  17,  pp.
51-57, 1969.

Bryant,  P.M., Derviation of Working Limits for Continuous Release Rates
of 129I to Atmosphere, Health Physics, Vol. 19, pp. 611-616, 1970.

Dolphin, G.W., The Biological Problems in the Radiological Protection of
Workers Exposed to 239Pu, Health Physics, Vol. 20, pp. 549-557, 1971.

Durbin, P.W., Lynch, J., and Murray S., Average Milk and Mineral Intakes
 (Calcium, Phosphates, Sodium and Potassium) of  Infants  in  the  United
States  from 1954-1968:   duplications  for Estimating Annual Intake of
Radionuclides, Health Physics, Vol. 19, pp. 187-222, 1970.

Evans, A.G., New Dose Estimates from Chronic Tritium  Exposures,  Health
Physics, Vol. 16, pp. 57-63, 1969.

Federal  Radiation  Council,  Background Material for the Development of
Radiation Protection Standards, Staff Report No. 1, May 13, 1960.

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Radiation Protection Standards, Staff Report No. 2, September, 1961.

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Radiation Protection Standards, Staff Report No. 5, July, 1964.

Funk, F., Cytosine to Thymine Transitions from Decay of Cytosine-5 H  in
Bacteripphage S 13, Science, Vol. 166, pp. 1629-1631, 1969.

Garner,  R. J.,  and Russell, R.S., Isotopes of Iodine, Radioactivity and
Human Diet,  ed. R.S. Russell, Pergamon Press, 1966.
                                    D-18

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International Connission on Radiological Protection Publication  No.  2,
Pergamon Press, 1959.

International  Ccrrrnission  on Radiological Protection,  Publication No. 6
Pergamon Press, 1964.

International Commission on Radiological Protection, Publication  No.   8
Pergamon Press, 1966.

Kirk,  W.P.,  Krypton-85 - A Review of the Literature and an Analysis  of
Radiation Hazards, Environmental Protection Agency, Office  of   Research
and  Monitoring,  Eastern  Environmental  Radiation Laboratory,  January,
1972.

Koranda, J.J., and Martin, R., Persistence of Radionuclides  at  Sites  of
Nuclear  Detonations,  Biological  Implications of  the  Nuclear Age,  U.S.
Atomic Energy Commission Symposium Series No. 5, 1965.

McClendon, J.F., Iodine and  the  Incidence  of  Goiter,   University  of
Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 1939.

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Populations  of  Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, Report  of
the Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing  Radiation
(BEIR), U.S. Government Printing Office, 1972.

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                                   D-19
                                   ^ J"'          ftU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1974 546-319/403' 1-3

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     THE ABSTRACT CARDS  accompanying this report
are designed to facilitate information retrieval.
They provide suggested  key  words, bibliographic
information, and an abstract.   The key word con-
cept of  reference  material  filing  is  readily
adaptable to a variety of  filing systems ranging
from manual-visual to electronic data processing.
The cards are  furnished in  triplicate  to allow
for flexibility in their use.

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ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE COMMITMENT:   AN APPLICATION
  TO THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY,  EPA-520/4-73-002.  Cri-
  teria and Standards Division,  Office of Radiation Pro-
  grams, Environmental Protection Agency  (February 1974).

ABSTRACT:   The concept of environmental  dose commitment
  is developed  and  illustrated  by  application to pro-
  jected releases  of  selected  radionuclides  from  the
  nuclear power industry over the next fifty years.   The
  concept encompasses the total projected  radiation dose
  to populations committed  by  the  irreversible release
  of  long-lived  radionuclides  to  the environment, and
  forms a basis for estimating the  total  potential con-
  sequences on public  health  of  such environmental re-
  leases.  Because of  the difficulty of  making  projec-
ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE COMMITMENT:   AN APPLICATION
  TO THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY,  EPA-520/4-73-002.  Cri-
  teria and Standards Division,  Office of Radiation Pro-
  grams, Environmental Protection Agency (February 1974).

ABSTRACT:   The concept of environmental  dose commitment
  is developed  and  illustrated  by  application to pro-
  jected releases  of  selected  radionuclides  from  the
  nuclear power industry over the next fifty years.   The
  concept encompasses the total projected  radiation dose
  to populations committed  by  the  irreversible release
  of  long-lived  radionuclides  to  the environment, and
  forms a basis for estimating the  total  potential con-
  sequences on public  health  of  such environmental re-
  leases.  Because of  the difficulty of  making  projec-
ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION DOSE COMMITMENT:   AN APPLICATION
  TO THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY,  EPA-520/4-73-002.  Cri-
  teria and Standards Division,  Office of Radiation Pro-
  grams, Environmental Protection Agency (February 1974).

ABSTRACT:   The concept of environmental  dose commitment
  is developed  and  illustrated  by  application to pro-
  jected releases  of  selected  radionuclides  from  the
  nuclear power industry over the next fifty years.   The
  concept encompasses the total projected  radiation dose
  to populations committed  by  the  irreversible release
  of  long-lived  radionuclides  to  the environment, and
  forms a basis for estimating the  total  potential con-
  sequences on public  health  of  such environmental re-
  leases.  Because of  the difficulty of  making  projec-

-------
  tions of radionuclide transport on  the basis of  pres-
  ent  knowledge,  these potential consequences have been
  calculated only for the first one  hundred-year  period
  following  release.   The particular radionuclides con-
  sidered  are  tritium, krypton-85, iodine-129, and  the
  actinides.

KEY WORDS:   Actinides; environmental  radiation; iodine-
  129; krypton-85; nuclear  power; population  dose  com-
  mitment; tritium.
  tions of radionuclide transport on  the basis of  pres-
  ent  knowledge,  these potential consequences have been
  calculated only for the first one  hundred-year  period
  following  release.   The particular radionuclides con-
  sidered  are  tritium, krypton-85, iodine-129, and  the
  actinides.

KEY WORDS:   Actinides; environmental  radiation; iodine-
  129; krypton-85; nuclear  power; population  dose  com-
  mitment; tritium.
  tions of radionuclide transport on  the basis of  pres-
  ent  knowledge,  these potential consequences have been
  calculated only for the first one  hundred-year  period
  following  release.   The particular radionuclides con-
  sidered  are  tritium, krypton-85, iodine—129, and  the
  actinides.

KEY WORDS:   Actinides; environmental  radiation; iodine-
  129; krypton-85; nuclear  power; population  dose  com-
  mitment ; tritium.

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