United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Health Effects Research
Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-600/1-80-007
January 1980
Research and Development
Trend Analysis of
Death Rates in the
State of Illinois,
1967-1975
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
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The nine series are:
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SEARCH series. This series describes projects and studies relating to the toler-
ances of man for unhealthful substances or conditions. This work is generally
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clude biomedical instrumentation and health research techniques utilizing ani-
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This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
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TREND ANALYSIS OF DEATH RATES IN THE
STATE OF ILLINOIS, 1967-1975
BY
Eileen B. O1Farre11
Tsukasa Namekata
Bertram W. Carnow
Occupational and Environmental Medicine Program
School of Public Health
University of Illinois at the Medical Center
Chicago, Illinois 60680
68-02-2492
Dr. Wilson Riggan
Health Effects Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
HEALTH EFFECTS RESEARCH LABORATORY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
RESEARCH TRI2NGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Health Effects Research Laboratory,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies
of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names
or conmerical products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
ii
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FOREWARD
The many benefits of our modern, developing, industrial society
are accompanied by certain hazards. Careful assessment of the relative
risk of existing and new man-made environmental hazards is necessary
for the establishment of sound regulatory policy. These regulations
serve to enhance the quality of our environment in order to promote the
public health and welfare and the productive capacity of our Nation's
population.
The Health Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park,
conducts a coordinated environmental health research program in toxi-
cology, epidemiology, and clinical studies using human volunteer subjects.
These studies address problems in air pollution, non-ionizing radiation,
environmental carcinogenesis and the toxicology of pesticides as well as
other chemical pollutants. The Laboratory participates in the development
and revision of air quality criteria documents on pollutants for which
national ambient air quality standards exist or are proposed, provides the
data for registration of new pesticides or proposed suspension of those
already in use, conducts research on hazardous and toxic materials, and is
primarily responsible for providing the health basis for non-ionizing radia-
tion standards. Direct support to the regulatory function of the Agency is
provided in the form of expert testimony and preparation of affidavits as
well as expert advice to the Administrator to assure the adequacy of health
care and surveillance of persons having suffered imminent and substantial
endangerment of their health.
This report summarizes mortality trends in the State of Illinois and
major cities with trends of a few individual air pollutant concentrations
during the nine year period, 1967-1975.
F. G. Hueter, Ph.D.
Director
Health Effects Research Laboratory
iii
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ABSTRACT
This report sunaarizes mortality trends in the State of Illinois and
major cities with some air pollution trends during the nine year period,
1967-75.
To examine an overall mortality trend in Chicago, downstate Illinois
and both combined or Illinois total, age-adjusted death rates were calculated.
A declining trend was observed in death rates for all causes, heart disease,
cerebrovascular disease, accidents, and pneumonia and influenza in all three
groups over the n^"« year period. However, deaths from malignant neoplasms
have encountered an increase over time in both Illinois total and downstate,
with the exception of Chicago where cancer death rates were unchanged.
The second analysis is to examine mortality and air pollution trends
in some major cities to see if both mortality and air pollution have been
declining in these cities or if such trends can be observed only in Chicago.
There were no common patterns of mortality and air pollution among those
cities over the recent nine years; however, a considerable decrease in both
mortality (all causes and heart disease) and air pollution (total suspended
particulate) was observed in all cities.
This work was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2492 by the
University of Illinois of Public Health under the sponsorship of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. This report covers a period from February
15, 1976 till October 1, 1978, and which was completed as of March 8, 1979.
iv
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
1 Crude death rates and age-adjusted death rates in
Illinois, Chicago, and Downstate from 1967 to 1975 6
2 Age-Adjusted death retes by five major causes in
Illinois, Chicago and Downstate from 1967 to 1975 7
3 Crude death rates, per 100,000 from all causes in
6 Illinois cities, 1967 to 1975 8
4 City-wide annual average, TSP in yg/m3 at 25°C
1967-1975, select communities in Illinois g
5 Crude death rates, per 100,000 for 4 major causes
of death, and annual TSP and SC*2 means vg/m3 from 1967-
1975 in Chicago, Illinois 9
6 Crude death rates, per 100,000, for 4 major causes
of death and annual TSP means, yg/m3 from 1967-1975
in Joliet, Illinois .« 10
7 Crude death rates per 100,000 for 4 major causes
of death and annual TSP means, in yg/m3 from 1967-
1975 in Peoria, Illinois 11
8 Crude death rates, per 100,000 for 4 major
causes of death and annual TSP means in yg/m3
from 1967-1975 in Rockford, Illinois 12
9 Crude death rates, per 100,000 for 4 major
causes of death and annual TSP means, in ycr/m3
from 1S67-1975 in Springfield, Illinois 13
10 Crude death rates, per 100,000 for 4 major causes
and annual TSP means, yg/m3 from 1967-1975
in East Holine, Illinois 14
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LIST OF TABLES
(In Appendix)
Number Page
1 Age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000) from
all causes for Illinois, Chicago and Dcwnstate,
1965-1975 16
2 Age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000) by
specific causation, 1967-1975 17
3 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP and
SO2 annual means in yg/n3 in Chicago, 1967-1975 18
4 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP annual
means in yg/ta3 in Joliet, 1967-1975 18
5 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP annual
means in vg/m^ in Peoria, 1967-1975 19
6 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP annual
means in yg/ta3 in Rockford, 1967-1975 19
7 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP annual
means in yg/ta3 in Springfield, 1967-1975 20
8 Crude death rates, per 100,000 and TSP annual
means in yg/ta3 in East Holine, 1967-1975 20
vi
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge with thanks the work of
Ms. Sharon Kawasaki for her preparation of tables and illustrations,
and Ms. Kiyoka Koizumi for her assistance in computation of data, and
data preparation.
Also, the services of the Illinois State Department of Public
Health are greatly appreciated for their providing assistance in
data retrieval.
Finally, the authors would like to express their gratitude to
Mr. Edward Bouchard for his editorial review of this manuscript and
Ms. Alberta Braden and Ms. Carol Albor for their secretarial assistance,
vii
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The netion enjcyed an increasingly stable mortality decline during the
1970's with the lowest death rate achieved in 1975, reported Dorcthy Rice,
the Director of the National Center for Kealth Statistics. Improvements
were shown in the death rates from diabetes, hypertension and accidents,
with the most dramatic changes of decrease noted from heart and cerebrovas-
cular disease. However, the death rate from malignant neoplasms has contin-
ued to increase slightly.
>
Also vital statistics reports'" from the State of Illinois show a consis-
tent downward trend in mortality in Illinois from 1967 to 1975. Crude death
rates reveal that heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, accidents, pneu-
monia and influenza, congenital anomalies, diabetes and all causes indeed
are decreasing. Death rates from malignant neoplasms and homicides have in-
creased, while emphysema has fluctuated from year to year.
In November, 1975, a recent mortality decline in the city of Chicago was
publicized by one of the local newspapers. The article stated that Jacob
Dumelle, chairman of the Illinois Pollution Control Board, asked the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency to investigate if a recent mortality decline
in Chicago was due to a recent decrease in air pollution. Accordingly, the
task to investigate and answer this question was given to the School of Public
Health at the University of Illinois through the contract from U.S. EPA.
Before examining the relationship between air pollution and mortality in
Chicago, it is important to re-examine mortality trends in the State of
Illinois and major cities including Chicago. This report summarizes such
mortality trends as well as some air pollution trends in some cities in Illi-
nois between 1967 and 1975.
To examine an overall mortality trend in Chicago, downstate Illinois and
both combined or the entire state, age-adjusted death rates were calculated
by using age-specific death rates from Vital Statistics Illinois and annua
population estimates from 1967 to 1975 which were provided by the Illinois
1. "Mortality Decline Increasing," The Nation's Health, May 1977, p. 7.
2. Vital Statistics Illinois (Springfield: Illinois Department of Public
Kealth, 1967-1975).
3. "Is lower death rate due to clean air?-Dumelle", The Chicago Tribune-
Noveober 3, 1975.
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Department of Public Health. The 1970 census population of Illinois was
used as a standard population. This direct standardization enables us to
compare death rates between different population groups from year to year
independently of the age composition of the population.
An examination of Figure 1 (with tabulated numbers to be located in the
appendix. Table 1) comparing state-wide crude and age-adjusted death rates
for all causes, 1967-1975, reveals a slight discrepancy in figures, but iden-
tifies a trend nevertheless. From now on, unless otherwise stated, the
discussion will be limited to age-adjusted death rates only.
An overview of nine years within the total state of Illinois identifies
a continued downward slope since 1968. Downstate trends maintain an equili-
brium state after an initial high in 1968. The ensuing years after 1975 must
be watched to determine whether the mortality rates in downstate Illinois
would continue to be sporadic. The latter part of the decade found the mor-
tality rates in Chicago to be haphazardly declining. However, since 1970,
the death rates from all causes do appear to be on a steady decline.
The simple analysis of death rates from all causes within the state
declares a trend, whether an increase or decrease, short term or long-term,
as stated above. However, some additional insight is provided when the same
age-adjusted death rates are examined by specific causation. Age-adjusted
death rates from five major causes, that is, heart disease, malignant neo-
plasms, cerebrovascular disease, accidents and pneumonia and influenza are
presented in Figure 2 (compiled rates, appendix, Table 2). Again ages were
adjusted based on the 1970 population of Illinois.
Over the nine year period, 1967-1975, the death rate for heart disease
accounted for the largest decrease of 74.8 deaths per 100,000 persons in
Illinois total, to 369.7 from 444.5; in Chicago the decrease was 93.5 and
downstate 58.8 deaths per 100,000 persons. Cerebrovascular disease de-
creased 19.7 in Illinois total, 20.5 in Chicago and 19.4 in downstate. Ac-
cidents and pneumonia and influenza also reported a decreasing trend, estab-
lishing a number of lives which have been saved over the past 9 year period.
However, as reported above, and related in the nation's health statistics,
deaths from malignant neoplasms have encountered an increase over time, with
Illinois total yielding an increase of 7.3, with Chicago decreasing by 0.9
and downstate increasing by 12.8.
The second analysis is to examine mortality and air pollution trends in
2
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some major cities in Illinois (e.g., Chicago, Joliet, Peoria, Rockford, Spring-
field and East Moline) to see if both mortality and air pollution have been
declining in these cities or if such trends can be observed only in Chicago.
2
Death rates are crude rates from Illinois Vital Statistics Reports, and air
pollution indices used are annual means of total suspended particulate (TSP)
3 3
in yg/m and sulfur dioxide (SO ) in yg/m obtained from the National Aerometric
Data Bank, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It was necessary to use
crude rates because of the lack of age-and sex-specific death rates from those
cities in the reports from the State of Illinois. Unfortunately the State of
Illinois was able to provide only the numbers of deaths by specific causation
by age group (every five years), and not a total population distinguished by
age. There is no tabulation of such figures by community, the smallest
breakdown being county-wide. Therefore age-adjusted death rates were not to
be compiled for this analysis.
Figure 3 displays an inter-city comparison of annual crude death rates,
from all causes, 1967-1975, expanding the analysis done on a state-wide basis.
From 1967 through 1973, there is no consistent pattern or trend among cities.
However it is after that point a decrease in the mortality rate is discernable
among all cities. To mirror the health status of these communities, TSP values,
annual averages computed in yg/m , are depicted over the same nine year span in
Figure 4. The former part of the time frame presents no perceptible trend;
however, over the years, the quality of air has improved with an overall
decrease in the ambient air level of total suspended particulate.
A more precise analysis between trends in death rates and specific air
contaminant values is elaborated within each specific city in Figures 5-10.
(Please note that all tabulated figures for each chart are found in the Appendix).
It is important to note each community's size and type, with an insight to
the availability of data when any inter-city comparison is attempted.
In 1970 the city of Chicago passed the Clean Air Ordinance which prohibited
the use of coal as a residential heating fuel, plus banned leaf burning. From
that point forward, Chicago has experienced a drop in ambient sulfur fumes by
75%, and airborne particulate levels have plummeted by 30%. At the same time,
the city has experienced a decrease in total mortality with specific attention
given to heart disease and respiratory disease as apparent in Figure 5. A
possible correlation might exist between specific mortality and ambient air
3
-------
pollution in conjuction with additional variables, not accounted for in this
analysis.
Joliet is located in a south-western suburb of Chicago, population of
100,000, with industry providing most of the livelihood. Unfortunately,
sulfur oxides are not measured adequately for sampling. However, total sus-
pended particulates have been reduced by 50% over the past nine years. Figure
6 details that mortality rates from all causes, heart and respiratory
diseases have shown a slight decrease over time, though the rates were subject
to fluctuation during that time span.
Figure 7 describes Peoria, further to the west and again urban-industrial-
ized though located in rural farmland. The city has not maintained an adequate
monitoring system to observe sulfur dioxide; hence, only TSP levels are again
cited. The general trend of paticulate pollution has decreased by 30% with a
sudden upward swing in 1974. Total mortality, with specific attention to heart
disease, has registered a slight decrease over time, though no pattern may be
observed in regard to respiratory disease.
Rockford, the second largest city in the state of Illinois, has only
values of TSP available for analysis, which when charted in Figure 8, describe
a continued decent since 1970. The mortality rates from all causes and heart
diseases have decreased, but marked with some fluctuation. In the latter portion
of the study time frame, respiratory disease does have a marked decrease,
which mirrors the decline of the air contaminant values.
Springfield, the capital of the state, also located in farmland has become
a major metropolitan area. Again, sulfur dioxide data is inadequate and
unavailable for commentary. Total suspended particulate has decreased by 20%
in the time period, with respiratory diseases declining by a steady 40%. Figure
9 pinpoints that mortality from all causes, after a long increase, has declined
since 1973, with heart disease mortality mirroring the same trend.
As the last of our respective communities, described in Figure 10, East
Moline represents certain limitations due to the wide unavailability of both
data sets. Vital Statistics are available only until 1973, while TSP has
been monitored since 1972. All the communities selected for analysis were
chosen on a basis of wanting to present a variety of unique situations and
statistics comprising the state. Of course, primary consideration was given
to those communities having data available to analyze. Unfortunately, East
-------
Moline was unable to provide a complete data set from either source, causing
a more severe limitation than use of only unadjusted data.
Although there were no common patterns of mortality and air pollution
among those cities over the recent nine years, a considerable decrease in both
mortality (all causes and heart disease) and air pollution (TSP) was observed
in all cities (except East Moline). Since a death rate is influenced by many
factors, we cannot pinpoint a proof of a relationship between mortality and
air pollution even if they are declining in parallel. Factors which may affect
mortality are (1) demographic (age, sex, race, urban-rural and migration),
(2) socioeconomic (income, education, environmental living conditions and
occupation)/ (3) personal (nutrition, medical care, smoking habits, exercise
habits and genetic factors), and (4) environmental (air quality or air pollution,
water quality, occupational exposure to toxic substances, and climate). An
ideal study on the association between air pollution and mortality would control
for all the factors listed above. However, such a study is not feasible at
present because much of the data is not available, especially on personal
factors, lacking a survey to follow up the family of the deceased. (Even
with a survey, such past information is often quite limited and unreliable).
Nonetheless, there is an urgent need to measure the strength of the relation**
ship between air pollution and mortality; at present this can be accomplished
only by using existing and limited information.
Chicago is probably a best area among the cities examined earlier to
investigate the strength of the relationship between air pollution and
mortality in detail because of its large population size, citywide coverage of
ambient air monitoring systems, and possible population breakdowns into census
tracts or community areas. Thus, a mortality study has been carried out to
answer the question, "How much of the reduction in mortality is the result of
lower concentration of the individual pollutants in the city of Chicago?"
(See the U.S. EPA document; Model for Measuring the Health Impact From
Changing Levels of Ambient Air Pollution; Mortality Study.).
-------
c
o
a
§
o
o
1.240
1,220
1.200
1.1 SO
1.160
1.140
1.120
1.100
1.080
1.060
1.040
O
0)
fl> 1,020
Q.
1.000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
840
820 f
Chicago
< crude death rate
ageadjusted
death rate
Illinois
Downstate
1967 '66
'69
'70
'71
'72
'73 '74
'75
Fiqure 1. CtucU- donth rotes: .u«l ,vjiadju.st ! doath r.it«-r, in Illinois,
Chicago and Downstate from 19G7 to 1975.
-------
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
e 400
e
« 380
a
o 360
o
o
§ 340
» 200
0
a
180
0
0!
2
100
801
60
40
i
60
40
20
D«
Illinois
»< Chicago
Downstate
Heart disease
n
Malignant neoplasms
Cerebrovascular disease
Accidents
^"'"""^'"'.&^^
pneumonia & Influenza
1967 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '?3
'74
75
Figure 2. Aqe-Adjusted death rates by five major causes in Illinois,
Chicago and Downstnte from 1967 to 1075.
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PIGUEE 3
FIGURE 4
oo
o
o
o
ex
c.
«
O
1400-
1300-
1200-
noo-
1000-
900-
800-
700-
600-
500-
CRUDE DEATH RATE, PER 100,000 FROM ALL
CAUSES IN 6 ILLINOIS CITIES, 1967-1975
Springfield
Joliet
Chicago
Peorio
Rockford
\ jr*""* Easl Moline
\t'
CITY-WIDE ANNUAL AVERAGE, TSP |ja/m AT 25*C
1967-1975, SELECT.COMMUNITIES IN ILLINOIS
'67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 Year
170-
160-
150-
WO-
130-
120-
110-
f ICOH
a.
'.90-
80-
70
60-
50-
Eost Mo line
oria
Joliet
Chicago
Springri eld
N* Rockford
'67 '68'69 "70 '71'72 '73.'74 '75 Year
-------
FIGURE 5
0*
a.
$
O
at
o.
CO
o
-------
FIGURE 6
1200-
1100-
1000-
X
OJ
Q.
700-
jE 600-
o>
a 230-
6^
o
o
o"
o
190-
170-
£ 150^
a
-------
FIGURE 7
O>
0.
m
I
11 OO-i
1000-
900-
800-
700-
600-
500-
«i
240-
g. 220-
o
7 200-
°" I8O-
160-
140-
120-
100-
80-
60-
40-
CRUDE DEATH RATES, PER 100,000, FOR 5 MAJOR
CAUSES AND ANNUAL TSP MEANS, MQ/m* FROM
1967-1975 IN PEORIA, ILLINOIS
All Causes
Heart
Cancer
TSP
Respiratory
'67 '68 '69 '70 17I '72 '73 '74 '75 Year
11
-------
FIGURE 8
1100-
1000-
900-
800-
« 700-
S 600-
a 500-
o
§ 400^
g
. 200 -\
(A
180-
110-
90-
70-
50-
30-
CRUDE DEATH RATES, PER 100,000, FOR 5 MAJOR
CAUSES AND ANNUAL TSP MEANS, MQ/m3 FROM
1967-1975 IN ROCKFORD, ILLINOIS
All Causes
Heart
Cancer
TSP
Respiratory
f
!67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 Year
12
-------
FIGURE 9
V.
o>
1400-
1300
1200-
1100-
1000-
900-
800-
700-
gj1 600^
O
d" 360
O
fc 240-
Q.
« 220-
S 200 n
o
120-
100-
80-
60-
40-
CRUDE DEATH RATES, PER IOO,000,FOR 5 MAJOR
CAUSES AND ANNUAL TSP MEANS, pg/m9 FROM
1967-1975 IN SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS
All Causes
Heart
Cancer
TSP
Respiratory
'67 '68 '69 '70 Vl '72 '73 '74 '75 Year
13
-------
EIGURE 10
900 -i
800-
700-
600-
« 500-
E
a. 400-
CRUDE DEATH RATES, PER 100,000 FOR 5 MAJOR
CAUSES AND ANNUAL TSP MEANS, pg/m3 FROM 1967-1975
IN EAST MOLINE, ILLINOIS
All Causes
0
o
o
g
ito
0>
Q.
£
"o
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APPENDIX
Age-Adjusted and crude death rates, per 100,000 from 1967-1975 in
Illinois, Downstate, Chicago and 5 Downstate communities from all causes,
and Specific Causation.
15
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TABLE 1
AGE-ADJUSTED DEATH RATES BY ALL CAUSES FOR ILLINOIS, CHICAGO
AND DOWNSTATE
1965-1975 (per 100,000)
(Mum6eA4 Jin Scsu.pt /twcttcoiw csiude. death tiatte, by out6e. )
Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Illinois
1,012.36
1,014.10
1,025.21
1,027.2
1.010.52
1,005.5
994.00
994.0
980.34
977.9
976.25
9*6.3
963.01
9*7.3
929.40
969.7
893.91
925.7
Chicago
1,155.65
7,7*7.0
1,182.98
1,226.0
1,155.08
7,796.0
1,181.36
7,729.9
1,131,90
7,777.2
1,118.55
7, 76*. 2
1,085.00
7,75*.*
1,086.01
7, 75*. 2
1,028.04
7,0*3.3
Downstate
937.95
930.0
945.92
932.*
940.65
977.*
970.60
*97.5
911.08
*92.7
912.72
9*0.3
910.12
906.9
828.88
*94.5
838.69
*63.6
16
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TABLE 2
AGE-ADJUSTED DEATH RATES BY CAUSE, PER 100,000
IL
Heart Disease Chicago
Downstate
IL
Malignant Chicago
Neoplasms Downstate
i
IL
jCerebrovascular Chicago
Disease Downstate
IL
Accidents Chicago
Downstate
Pneumonia IL
and Chicago
Influenza Downstate
67
444.5
530.9
400.4
169.2
189.6
158.6
104.2
101.3
105.2
51.8
44.7
55.1
31.3
41.5
25.9
'68
446.1
531.9
403.1
169.1
190.1
158.4
'105.5
107.4
104.3
51.8
47.8
53.5
37.4
50.5
30.7
69
439.5
521.4
400.2
171.5
188.9
162.8
101.4
100.3
101.6
50.0
46.4
51.5
34.8
45.1
29.8
70
429.1
531.7
381.4
172.3
193.9
162.1
98.7
99.2
98.4
46.6
45.4
47.1
31.1
39.8
27.1
71
422.7
503.1
385.5
173.8
191.0
165.9
99.6
96.7
100.8
47.4
44.1
48.8
26.9
34.6
23.3
'72
432.2
506.6
385.9
174.8
188.7
168.6
97.9
93.7
99.7
43.8
40.6
45.3
29.5
36.5
26.4
'73
410.9
476.1
381.9
174.8
186.9
169.5
93.9
86.9
97.2
46.6
42.8
48.2
29.4
35.8
26.4
'74
389.3
473.8
354.2
f
176.3
192.5
169.4
91.6
90.2
92.1
42.0
39.7
42.9
25.8
34.3
22.3
'75
369.7
437.4
341.6
176.5
188.7
171.4
84.5
80.8
85.8
42.7
42.1
42.9
25.4
31.4
23.0
-------
Table 3
CRUDE DEATH RATES, PER 100.000_AflD TSP AMn SO &MMTIAT
TM llrtVm TM r*IIT<^H
1967 1968 1969
TSP
so2
Death Rate
All
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
110
112
1142.2
682.4
197.8
53.4
120
77.3
1177.9
700.8
200.1
63.8 .
117
69.3
1204.3
712.1
208.2
58.8
1970
105
72
1183.9
701.0
204.6
49.4
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
97
53.3
1132.7
667.9
201.4
44.3
87.95
56
1127.7
672.1
198.8
45.6
90.65
45.3
1115.1
674.8
200.7
48.2
84.68
37.3
1117.4
645.7
205.5
46.1
79.24
26.7
1040.0
586.7
199.5
41.1
M
CD
Table 4
CRUDE DEATH RATK.q PPP tnn nnn AMn TSP aMMiiar
3
r/ltl TM
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
TSP
so2
Death Rate
All
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
134.6
1143.1
717.9
208.6
50.8
146.7
1156
718.7
181.3
56.0
126.9
1070
654.0
169.2
53.4
111
1101.0
671.8
202.8
33.6
92
1029.1
647.3
183.3
36.7
96.5
1029.1
667.9
184.3
48.0
79.14
1102.3
655.3
214.6
23.8
77.28
1074.7
644.3
208.9
35.5
83.04
1054.6
628.2
200.5
38.0
-------
Table 5
CRUDE DEATH RATES. PER inn.nnn awn TSP aMMrmr. MP&MC TM u^
TM EFQBTA
TSP
SO2
Death Rate
All
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
121.5
MW
1038.3
611.5
195.4
49.1
104
-| _-!-.!
1000.0
580.4
162.3
67.4
121.5
1056.5
618.9
179.8
74.8
151
M^M
1015.3
593.1
190.6
50.4
101
«._,._
1015.7
594.8
206.1
47.9
86
«~
1014.3
597.5
195.0
61.5
72.5
«
1046.3
607.2
223.1
61.3
72.83
WM»
1009.4
584.4
210.5
48.3
86.5
H.
911.3
510.9
187.4
54.4
Table 6
3
CRUDE DEATH RATES PER 100.000 AND TSP ANNUAL MEANS IN W/m IN ROCKFORD
1967 196S 1969 1970
TSP
so2
Death Rate
All
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
83.25
977.8
563.7
171.1
45.9
84.25
1007.2
589.1
179.7
64.5
87
971.0
555.6
181.8
51.1
107
916.7
515.7
163.5
49.5
1971
80
956.1
560.1
186.5
34.5
1972 1973
80
989.2
603.0
172.2
47.3
62.5
981.3
555.3
196.2
49.6
1974
52.25
953.9
542.1
189.2
40.1
1975
52
810.0
462.0
174.0
38.0
-------
Table 7
CRUDE DEATH RATES PER 100.000 AND TSP ANNUAL MEANS IN Ua/m IN SPRINGFEir.D
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
TSP
SO2
Death Rate
All'
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
3108
1310.8
785.4
253.3
70.3
89.5
1245.5
754.4
230.1
67.4
100
1270.3
788.7
231.4
56.7
84
1287.2
801.1
230.0
54.5
86
1289.9
807.6
208.7
52.2
1972 1973 1974
86
1313.4
809.1
229.9
48.8
64.25
1337.6
769.2
203.4
49.9
73.6
1229.5
730.6
246.8
45.3
1975
74
1166.5
681.1
253.0
43.3
to
o
Table 8
3
:RUDE DEATH RATES PER 100,000 AND TSP ANNUAL MEANS IN ug/m IN EAST MOLJNE
1967
TSP
S02
Death Rate
All
Heart
Cancer
Respiratory
'
845.8
468.1
146.9
26.6
1968
719.1
490.5
100.0
23.8
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
805.8
451.5
150.5
38.9
811.3
489.6
153.6
43.2
612.5
401.9
90.9
14.4
104
.
708.2
502.4
86.1
19.1
96
_
765.5
507.2
119.6
28.8
86
89
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Pleaie read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-600/1-80-007
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Trend Analysis of Death Rates in the
State of Illinois, 1967-1975.
6. REPORT DATE
January 1980
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Eileen B. O1Farre11, MPH; Tsukasa Namekata, Ph.D.
Bertram W. Carnow, M.D.
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Occupational and Environmental Medicine Program
School of Public Health
University of Illinois at the Medical Center
Chicago, Illinois 60680
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
1AA817
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02-2492
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Health Effects Research Lab
Office of Research and Development
U.S. EPA
Research Triancrle Paric. Moirfeh (TaiwU m
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
9771 1
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/11
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report summarizes mortality trends in the State of Illinois and major
cities with some air pollution trends during the nine year period, 1967-75.
To examine an overall mortality trend in Chicago, downstate Illinois and
both combined or Illinois total, age-adjusted death rates were calculated. A
declining trend was observed in death rates for all causes, heart disease, cere-
brovascular disease, accidents, and pneumonia and influenza in all three groups
over the nine year period. However, deaths from malignant neoplasms have en-
countered an increase over time in both Illinois total and downstate, with the
exception of Chicago where cancer death rates were unchanged.
The second analysis is to examine mortality and air pollution trends in some
major cities to see if both mortality and air pollution have been declining in
these cities or if such trends can be observed only in Chicago. There were no
common patterns of mortality and air pollution among those cities over the recent
nine years; however, a considerable decrease in both mortality (all causes and
heart disease) and air pollution (total suspended particulate) was observed in
all cities.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/GtOUp
Carcinogenisis
Toxicology
Non-ionizing radiation
06, F,R,T
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
RELEASE TO PUBLIC
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
UNCLASSIFIED
21. NO. OF PAGES
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
UNCLASSIFIED
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (R«v. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
21
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