STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT SYSTEM: (SEAS)
REGIONAL DISAGGREGATION OF ALL FORECASTS
i i
rlANSPORTATION IRegonal)
Milage Forecasts
Freight
Truck
Rail
Water
Air
Pipe
Passenger
Auto
Air
Rail
Rapid Transit
SPACEHEAT I Regional!
Fuel & Residuals tor:
Multi-Family
Single-Family
Commercial
% abatarm >t for various
control techniques
CONSUMER SOLID WASTE
Improve forecasts of consumer solid waste
Adapt to recycling module
• Expand secondary residuals from disposal
methods
Improve forecasts of costs of disposal
LAND USE SERVES
* Develop land L e classification scheme
and taxonomy
Land use pollution coefficients, e.g., runoff
Improve forecasts of land use activities
ENVIRONMENTAL. PROTECTION AGENCY • WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
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SECTION I
INTRODUCT ION
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SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
"Effective strategy for national environmental quality requires a
foundation of information on the current status of the environment,
on changes and trends in its condition, and on what these changes
mean... "1
PURPOSE OF THE SEAS SYSTEM
In late 1972, Lhe Washington Environmental Research Center, in
response to an expressed need of the EPA Administrator, began work on the
Strategic Environmental Assessment System for use in forecasting the state
of the environment. Design goals for the system included the projection of
economic and demographic variations and their impact on pollutant residual
levels Another original design objective was to predict the secondary effects
and reactions which might result from the impact of various environmental
quality levels on economic, social and ecological conditions.
Typical applications of the system were expected to include the pro-
jection and analysis of the likely consequences resulting from alternative
environmental policies and socioecononic trends. In recognition of time
constraints and data availability, a forecast horizon of ten to twenty years
was specified. This time span was considered sufficient to satisfy most
known policy analysis needs and to allow time for impact and reactions to
policy actions.
ANTICIPATED BENEFITS
The development of a comprehensive assessment tool for economic and
environmental forecasting is a major undertaking at any time. The SEAS
system, moreover, was begun at a time of considerable uncertainty as to
the feasibility of developing practical techniques for modelling many of
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its components. Policy-makers at EPA, however, considered the probable
benefits of the SEAS system would be significant and worth the risks involved.
As reported by the Assistant Administrator for Research and Development at
the end of the test phase (May 1973).
"...there are difficult and complicated problems involved in
forecasting. These must all be taken into account and intern-
alized as one attempts to develop a capability for strategic
assessment.
On the positive side, however, there are numerous significant
benefits to be gained from attempting to forecast future problems.
From a policy-making point of view, the ability to consider
the likely long-range and comprehensive implications of policy
choices can contribute substantially to policy effectiveness.
One can have the benefit of organization of thought. Strategic
assessment requires structuring choices, considering ramifications
and attempts at predicting impacts, all of which demand some set
of rational criteria by which policy choices can be evaluated.
The concept of 'alternative futures', or the consideration and
evaluation of alternative states of the environment, is one such
example. With an effective forecasting capability, one can
develop certain scenarios within the general limits of expected
growth trends or patterns, and evaluate the likely outcomes or
impacts upon environmental quality. Only by organizing and
bounding the possible futures can one rationally consider altern-
atives for growth policies."
SCOPE OF SEAS
From its inception, SEAS was viewed as a system of expert opinion
computer-based models, and analytical techniques which would provide an
on-going capability to assess macro-level policies and strategies.in.terms
of their likely futare results. SEAS utilizes preexisting demographic,
economic, and technological projections to forecast environmental condi-
tions on a national scale, as well as for the ten Federal regions and the
states. Inputs are specified at the national or state level. The SEAS
Prototype System forecasts the national economy, the associated industrial
and consumption residuals, and pollution abatement costs to the year 1985.
2
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SEAS input formats are structured to provide for testing of alternative
assumptions through changes in scenario formulations.
PHASED DEVELOPMENT
Since the overall SEAS concept is quite broad in its objectives, the
system was developed in a time-phased fashion, with milestones, products,
and decision points built into each phase. This phasing is summarized as
follows:
1. Phase One; From the initiation of SEAS in September 1972 through
May 1973, the goal was to construct a "Test System" to serve
generally as a pedagogical tool for the research program. This
phase was largely directed toward exploring the most effective
development strategies and locating current state of the art sub-
systems. The products of this phase were an operational system
that provided a valid base for further development as a cost effec-
tive plan for subsequent phases.
2. Phase Two; From the completion of the Test System in mid-May 1973
to the operation of the Prototype System in mid-January 1974, the
goal was to develop the residuals forecast subsystem of SEAS along
the guidelines illuminated by the Test System. Thus, the Prototype
System was built upon those elements of the Test System design
which best provided a basic forecasting capability that could be
rapidly developed. The result was a system which can be used by
various parts of EPA for policy assessment purposes. The user may
elect to operate the full system or to exercise any of its modules.
The SEAS Prototype System is now being used to project the residuals
and associated costs for future states of the environment at various
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time intervals under alternative assumptions. Real-world appli-
cations and testing suggest worthwhile areas for further
development.
3. Phase Three; The 12 month period from the operation and testing
of the Prototype System will constitute phase three. The goal of
this phase is to continue applying the evolving system, and to
continue sensitivity and validation checks. At the same time,
independent analysis will be made of the component modules of the
system to determine their degree of utility to the Agency. User
interaction with the SEAS development team will identify those
components of the system where further refinement or development
would be most useful. These new elements can then be developed
and integrated into SEAS on a priority basis corresponding to
user requirements.
ORIGINAL DESIGN CONCEPT
The original SEAS was envisioned as a system which would provide a
capability for testing the impacts of alternative scenarios on the environ-
ment with a time horizon of ten to twenty years. Figure 1 gives an overview
of the system as originally conceived. The geometric figures represent
assessment modules; the arrows and dotted lines represent the connective
links between the modules. The double scored boxes represent those modules
developed further in the prototype. A brief description of'the various
components as they appear in the Prototype System.
1. Change Agents (Inputs)' Population, economic, technologic, or
other factors whose change in magnitude, direction, appearance
or disappearance may pose significant consequences for environ-
mental management. Population inputs may include changes in
total growth, patterns of distribution, social and economic
compositions, and value orientations. Technologic inputs may
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SEAS Concept
Expert
Opinion
Data Base
Inf. System
Change
Agents
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include pollution abatement technology changes, improved recycling
technology, etc.
2. Processes; Major activities of a socioeconomic system which
respond to the change agents. Processes can be divided into five
categories: extraction, production, distribution, consumption,
and disposal.
a. Extraction; The obtaining of raw materials for utilization
in the production process. Raw materials may result from
mining natural resources, restoration, reclamation, recycling,
resource recovery, decomposition, etc.
b. Production; The synthesis of raw materials, intermediate
products, energy (labor), and capital to yield a potentially
consumable product.
c. Distribution. These activities associated with overcoming
spatial separation.
d. Consumption; Activities which result in the utilization
of the output of the other processes.
e. Disposal; The collection, storage, f> ansportation, absorp-
tion and dissipation of waste materials that are not com-
pletely utilized by the other processes.
3. Stocks; The supply of natural or man-produced resources which are
effectively available for use by the processes. Tangible quanti-
ties can be sorted into three arbitrary categories—depletable,
fixed, and variable.
a. Depletable Stocks; Those stocks which are renewed at a rate
so slow as to be considered negligible, e.g., coal, oil.
b. Fixed Stocks. Stock which have a continual supply; the pro-
cess of renewal is not affected by man; although the quantity
or quality of the resource may be diminished in local areas,
e.g., air, water.
c. Variable Stocks; The rate of renewal of these stocks depends
on the physical environment and magnitude of the propogating
or producing stock or process, e.g., agriculture, forestry.
4. Residuals; The terms "gross residuals" and "net residuals" are
utilized to mean, respectively, untreated (wastes) and 'treated
air (emissions), water (effluents), solid (wastes), pesticides
(laydown), and radionuclides (releases). A gross residual may be
reduced in magnitude or composition through recycling (in the case
of solids and waste water), abatement (transformation into another
residual form). Gross air residuals are equivalent to what are
commonly called "uncontrolled emissions" and net air residuals are
equivalent to "controlled emission". In the case of water pollution,
gross residuals refers to effluents in the absence of abatement
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while net residuals refers to actual effluents entering the
receptor water body.
5. Effects; Residual levels in the different media impact upon the
sociopolitical, economic, and environmental systems. The magnitude
and characteristics of this impact will depend upon the deleterious
or beneficial effects of the residuals, the distribution or
concentration of the population affected and the type and sensi-
tivity of the physical environment.
6. Reactions; Certain changes in socio-politico-economic and environ-
mental systems occur in response to exposure to residuals as well
as actions taken to counteract their impacts. For example, pro-
vision of health care facilities may increase, or populations and
industries may be induced to migrate.
7. Expert Opinion; Utilization of a network of experts in various
fields to provide, among other things:
a. A systematic search for relevant literature and extant
models
b. Aid in the analysis of SEAS output
c. Help in chosing the most efficient and complete design
process
d. Validity, sensitivity and real world application tests
e. Fill in data and technology gaps in the overall framework
8. Output; The output of SEAS is designed and formatted to provide
quick summary options for policy assistance and more detailed
outputs for investigative purposes. The output will include
geographical displays, formatted statistics by region, and a
national summary.
SEAS TEST SYSTEM
The Test System was developed to determine the feasibility of incorpor-
ating the salient features of the SEAS design concept into a functioning,
comprehensive system. Within a short time span, the Test System was expected
to achieve operational status in order to provide a preliminary evaluation
of its usefulness as a policy assessment tool.
To meet the requirements of both comprehensiveness and operationality,
the Test System was required to build on existing or easily adaptable com-
ponents. Many of the analytical techniques required to support the complex
and interdependent SEAS system (Figure 2) had significant gaps. Enough
components or modules were identified, however, to serve as a basis for
analysis. Several of these modules had been explored and structured in the con-
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SEAS Test Model Flow
Input
Scenarios
oo
National
Processes
(INFORUM)
Regional
Residuals
(RESGENR)
Output
Regional
Levels
Temporal
Distribution
Indirect
Effects
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text of rather specific disciplines (e.g., economics, transportation) in earlier
work. It was thus no easy task to couple these modules into a consistent
interdependent system. A certain amount of creativity and resourcefulness
were required to achieve a workable test system.
The modular structure of the SEAS Test Model was a hedge against the
uneven experience associated with the various modules. For instance,
previous work on the processes module was more extensive and "hard" than
that associated with the effects-reactions module. While elaborate quanti-
tative econometric tujdels were available for the former, relatively sparse
quantitative information could be obtained for the latter module.
The original SEAS concept evolved to a different form due to the
Test System; certain original areas were deemed too sparse, too expensive,
and too time-consuming to be incorporated into the system, while other
modules were judged to be capable of development within the constraints
•i
of the SEAS Prototype implementation schedule.
THE SEAS PROTOTYPE SYSTEM
The "Prototype System" can be viewed as an extension of those areas of
the Test System which showed the greatest potential for early development.
Certain areas were identified as prime candidiates for further design and
possible implementation; others were deemed too ill-defined or too costly
in terms of time and manpower for inclusion in the Prototype System. The
"Effects and Reactions" modules, for example, were not continued beyond the
initial feasibility definition stage of the Test System. The "Processes and
Residuals" modules, on the other hand, underwent substantial development in
the Prototype Systam.
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Figure 3 gives an overview of the SEAS Prototype System. The chart
reflects the design detail and scope incorporated in the Phase Two Proto-
type. A brief description of the Prototype System follows.
The Industrial Forecasts
To initiate the system, standard inputs, such as projections of popula-
tion, labor force, and economic growth, are entered into a large computer-
based national economic model, JLnterindustry Forecasting Model of the Uni-
versity of Maryland(INFORUM). ^ In addition to its 15-year macro-econometric
projections, the INFORUM module produces dollar output levels for different
industrial sectors for each year, 1971 to 1985.
The outputs for environmentally important industrial sectors are
further disaggregated into subsectors through side equations. For example,
sector 55, Industrial Chemicals, is disaggregated into 10 subsectors, one
being the chlorine industry. Output units for subsectors are normally
converted from dollars to physical units, such as tons or gallons.
Sid equations are contained in a separate module (INSIDE); where
feedback corrections to INFORUM at the subsector level are required, the
equations are also embedded within the INFORUM module.
Sector and subsector economic output levels are then used as inputs
to the environmental residuals generation module (RESGEN). Matrices within
this module contain coefficients which apply weights of pollutants per
output unit to the outputs of all pollutant-producing sectors and subsectors.
The RESGEN module then projects the annual tonnage of gross pollutant emis-
sions prior to treatment, net emissions left after treatment, secondary
residuals produced by the treatment processes, and the amount of recycled
material derived from some of the pollutants.
Residuals from the RESGEN module may be routed to either the SEAS
10
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STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SYSTEM ("SEAS")
(PROTOTYPE) MAY 1974
'INFORUM"
PRODUCTION
|GNP)
• Recycled Residuals
RESIDUALS
TREATMENT
Across-*- PROCESSES
K .*
FINAL \ •
Air
Residuals*
DISCHARGE >* • • • • Land
ry : .
1 Water
Inventories
Pictorial Representation of SEAS Prototype System
ASSOCIATED
ABATEMENT COSTS
DISAGGREGATION
TRANSPORTATION (ReaionaJ)
Mileage Forecasts
Freight
Passenger
Truck
Rail
Water
Air
Pipe
SPACEHEAT (Regional)
Fuel & Residuals for
Multi-Family
Single-Family
C Comrreraal
% abatement for various
control techniques
CONSUMER SOLID WATE (Regional)
Solid Waste Forecasts of Material
Average Disposal Costs per ten fo-
Incinerator, Land Fil's 0*ner
LAND USE RESERVES (Pegiofial)
Projection of Acres of Land in each
Use Category
Cropland Index
Forestland Index
FIGURE 3
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post-processor for generation of a national summary report or to the residual
regionalization module (DISAG). The DISAG module appllea standard govern-
ment industrial regional projections to disaggregate the residuals to each state
and then to each of the ten federal regions. Base year (1971) shares of
the national totals are developed using proportions of feach state employ-
ment by industry, obtained from the Department of Comnerce's County Business
Patterns data base. These shares are then adjusted for future years by
industrial earning proportion changes, obtained
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cial establishments and residential dwellings. Abatement procedures, such
as the use of a fabric filter or the substitution of fuels, are considered
in the emission forecasts. Costs are also developed for the selected
abatement procedures. As in the Transportation module, residuals and costs
are generated at the state level and then summed to the federal regions and
the nation.
The Consumer Solid Waste module forecasts the annual amounts of solid
waste for 13 materials produced in each state by household and commercial
activities. Theii disposal is traced through to various disposal techniques,
and the associated disposal cost per ton is calculated. The results are
then aggregated as described above.
The Land Use Reserves module forecasts the futare usage of land by
various land intensive activities, such as residential, commercial, and
agricultural. These are compared with the amount of land potentially
available for that land use activity. Aggregation from states to regional
and national forecasts then takes place as in the other non-Industrial
modules.
The Industrial Abatement Costs
The Cost of Abatement modules generate projected costs for meeting
industrial air and water standards and guidelines when they go into effect.
Annualized capital costs, annual maintenance and operating costs, and total
annual costs are developed for selected industrial sectors. These costs,
when combined with the abatement costs from the consumption-oriented
Transportation and Spaceheat modules, provide a rather comprehensive view
of national pollution control costs.
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System Outputs
Outputs from all residual-generation modules are fed to a post-processor
module which offers the SEAS user a variety of summary report options. For
example, the user may elect to produce reports at the national level only,
at the regional and national levels or at the state, regional and national
levels. He may also compute and output two or more scenarios concurrently
in order to obtain scenario comparisons in standard formats. The user may
also select the level of detail at which pollutants are displayed. For all
scenario runs, the post-processor provides annual comparisons of socio-
economic data with the residuals produced within each carrier medium or
report category (air, water, land, pesticides, and radiation).
The entire system is exercised through scenaiios in which the user can
modify from a large set of preset basic parameter values those variations
that he wishes to rest in a new forecast. As an example, Figure A gives
major parameters of interest in the present "Base Case Scenario". These
values, as well as default values for other parameters, provide policy
input to the system. SEAS then produces projections of socioeonomic
•
variables, residuals, and abatement costs for a 15-year period, at user-
selected increments between 1971 and 1985.
A more detailed description of each module within the SEAS Prototype
System is presented in subsequent sections of this report.
14
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figure 4. THE BASE CASE SCENARIO
ASSUMPTIONS:
Environmental Standards;
Water per Current Schedule
Industrial Air Emissions Fully Enforced in 1977
Auto Emissions: Interim Standards used for 1975-1977 Models;
Final Standards used for 1978 Models
Population:
• Total, Labor Force and Households from Series E Projection
(Department of Commerce)
' State Shares Set by OBERS
Economic;
• Based on Pre-Energy Crisis Data for: Disposable Income
Unemployment Levels
• State Shares Set by OBERS
• GNP Approximates BLS Projections
Energy Use/Technological Change;
• Projected from Historical Trends
15
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REFERENCES
1. "Environmental Quality", The First Annual Report of the Council on
Environmental Quality, Transmitted to Contress August 1970, page" 235.
2. "Strategic Environmental Assessment System- (SEAS) A Research Project:,
An Address by Dr. Stanley M. Greenfield, Assistant Administrator for
Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency at The
National Conference on Managing the Environment, Washington, D.C.,
May 14-15, 1973.
3. "System Definition and Implementation Plan for the Strategic Environ-
mental Assessment System (SEAS), R.E.Ubico, Control Data Corporation,
for the Environmental Protection Agency.
4. INFORUM, "1985 Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy", Clopper
Almon, Jr. et al., University of Maryland, Bureau of Business and
Economic Research, College Park, Maryland.
16
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II. SEAS PROTOTYPE MODULE DESCRIPTIONS
The following sections contain a more detailed description o£ nine
SEAS modules. Reference to the earlier figure "Strategic 1 nvlronmental
S>steu" will help understand how each of the modules "fits" into the logical
flow. The Modules described are'
A. INFORUM - The National Interindustry Economic Forecasting Module
B. RESGEN - Generation of Production Residuals
C. DISAG - Regionalization of National Emissions
D. AIR COST - Calculation of the Cost of Abatement for Air
E. WATER COST- Calculation of the Cost of Abatement for Water
F. TRANSPORT- Forecasts of Passenger and Freight Transportation &
Associated Residuals
G. SPACEHEAT - Forecasts of Residential and Commercial Spaceheating
H. S">LID WASTE - Forecasts of the Generation of Household Solid Waste
and Disposal
I. LAND USE - Forecasts of Land Using Activities
Each module is described in terms of:
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS - This Ls a listing of the parameters and values obtained from
studies outside the SEAS System.
ENDOGENOUS - These values are obtained from other SEAS modules.
VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS - These are the parameters whose levels are
left to the user to provide (default values are contained
in the system).
OUTPUT - Lists some of the outputs from the module
INPUT INTO OTHER MODULES - Lists the information used in other modules of the
SEAS System.
DISCUSSION - Provides a brief explanation of the previous material.
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INFORUM
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
Forecasts of:
• Population
• Labor Force Participation
" Labor Productivity
* Households
* Relative Prices
• Government Spending
* Investment: Equipment, Construction, Inventory Change
* International Exchange Rate
" Inter-industry Input-Output Coefficient Table
The first eight are used in an econometric model to derive 185 final
demands which "drive" the input-output table.
ENDOGENOUS
This module provides most of the economic and demographic inputs into
the other SEAS Modules.
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SECTION II
SEAS PROTOTYPE
MODULE
DESCRIPTIONS
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VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS
INFORUM has an"extremely wide capability of varying its parameters.
We will confine the'list to changes that have been made for some of the
scenarios.
• Change in Disposable Income
' Change in the Composition of Investment
• Change in the Level of Investment
* Changes in Imports and Exports
• Increasing Use of Nuclear Fuel for Electricity Generation
* Changes in Consumer Expenditures
• Changes in Coefficients in the Input-Output Model.
OUTPUT
Outputs are:
Industry levels (sales in $), employment by industry, and GNP broken
down into
• consumer spending
' government spending
• investment
• exports and imports
INPUT INTO OTHER MODULES
Industry levels go to: RESGEN
DISAG
Other national 'account variables go to: SPACEHEAT
TRANSPORT
SOLID WASTE
LAND USE
All outputs also go to- Post Processor
Output File
National Summaries
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INFORUM SCHEMATIC
Population
Households
Labor Force _
Participation
Rate
Productivity
Relative Prices
Disposable
Income
State & Local
Government
Spending
Consumer
Demand
Federal Government
Spending
International
Exchange Rates
Imports & Exports
INPUT
OUTPUT
MODEL
Investment, etc.
Employment
by Sector;
Unemployment
Sector Output
Levels; GNP
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List 1 gives the 185 Clopper Almon sectors in INFORUM by sector
name and number, e.g., sector 2 is poultry and eggs.
List 2 gives the subsectors which result from the disaggregation of
the major Almon sector. The first grouping of numbers represents the major
Almon sector; the second grouping of numbers represents the subsector, e.g.:
160 32
represents the subsector: Electricity by low Sulfur Residual and
Distillate Oil I
160 32 is a subsector resulting from the disaggregation of sector 160.
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SFCTOR MAMFS (LieC 1) '
1 DAIRY FARM PROPICTS
t, CPTTPN
7 FRUIT, VFCPTAdLES, AND PTHPR
10 ADRJfUlTUPAt, FCPfSTRY AND P "
13 OTHFR tnH-FFPRfltlS ORFS
16 STPNF ANO ("LAY MINING
10 MAJKTFNANCr ANO REPAIR CONST
27 CTHFR nRnNANCc
?5 PANNFO AND eROZCN Fri'iOS
zn suc'R ,
i
M SOFT OPINK* ANO fLAVORINGi
34 TrnACCO" PRrtlHlffS
17 »]^f TFXJ 11 TS » _ _
niHFR FUPNITUKF
4irH)CAL rnpuiji'ts " ' ' .j>^
s
(><• <*ci LULnSp F IHEPS • ',
"' 67' CLrAMinr. AND'TolLET'CPTPAftAr 1"
73 >e4TIMR OIL" "
T\ mmnrn pinnnrTS
76 ITi'HHR FPOYwEAR 1 ""
71 STRllfTHRAL" fLAY Ppn'oiiCTi
\\7 IJTJJPH STP\P ANr* Cl AY PPPOU^T
""• ? pnulm AMU tecs
i
•i GRAINS;
i
0 Fn/lFSr.PV. AW> FISHERY PROllUCT
T ""
/
14 COAL MINING
17 CHtMlf'l FERTUIZtC FINING
20 COMPUTF f iiiitn HISMIFS
23 MI AT punoiiCTs
26 ORAlS HILL PHOOUfTS
29 rONFFfTIONFRV PRODUf TS
32 FATS AMD Oil S
33 OROAC AND NARROW FAAftfCi
Ifl KNITTJNO
4 1 Lu^npn AND w«pn pROcOris
44 linPOfH CONTAINERS
47 PULP MIILS
50 HML AND PlMLniNG PAPER
56 BUSINESS FOPMSi BLA^K BOOKS
~"8>D PESINS
65 NCN-fELLULPSE FIBfP*
" tiV PAINTS
71 PAVINC »ND ASPHALT
74 HISC PLASTIC PPDOUnS
77 OTHFR-lFATHfP PRODbffS
Ob pnTf^RV
03 STEEL
" \ MPAt AHIMALS AHO MISC UVEST
6 TOflACrrj
•) NO WIN
li COPPFR OHF
H CRtlOF PFTrtOLEl|M AND NATURAL
/
la NfW rnHSTRt'CTioN
' Jl AKMUNlYJflN
" ?'« DAIRY PRonUCTI
27 PUF«Y PI'OOUMS
30 ALrOHCLIC BfcVPRAGES
'33 " ril<<1' FOPU PRrtOlJCtS ' '
36 LOOR COVERINGS . ,
39 APPA'FL
42 \VENCTR ANO PLYWOOD ,
45 HOUSEIintn FURNlVuAl: ' ' " ',
" 411 PAPFP AND PAI'FPBnABD MILLS ,
Si PAPFPUOARD CONTAINERS '
54 nOQKS
S7 CnHMfRflAL PRIH1ING ,
! >
6(5 PrSflCIOFS AN(5 PTHF/rt AGPItuL
( 1
(
«.6 DRUGS
6«J GASOLINE (§
'"7? TIR.FS ANn'lNNErTUI'eS " ',' ' " ' '
•"' 75 UWfN&'ANO UioiKTPlAL L^T
70 r,LA« '""
01 frMEN/, COMCRETF, AND CYPSUH
"""'*4""rnpPE'R
fiSlTAO rt/rj(fic P7ALUMMJM
-------
01 HJ1M-FP4 TASTtXttS AND FOPniNf. 9?
0* PULPING AMP HFATIWS FOUIP. 5»5
r
07 HFTA( STAMPINGS 9R
inn VAIVF*, PIT rnriNGS. ANO F toi
m „,« MArm^Rv in*
106 «A.-Mt»ir TOflLS, VtTH ft.TTIM 107
10">' SrrCMI {UnUST'TAt MACHU'FPY ' HO
HZ prwrn »«»WMSStnN rPUIPKNT ' 113
,,9 flTurp ni'riri' |.*ni|M'PY ' IU
III* nrrT"II"H MCA^ll" IMC, U'STFim '' 119
m, 1WUSTIUAI COMTEK 1>2
i?*' Pier LIGHTING AHH WIPING rou ' ,' I2ri
1>7* rrMMUMiffTIPN -Oir|"H»M7 [ !?•)
HO1 .ruf.TW* riFTTI»KAt FOUIPHFNT ' f 111'
113' MrTCIi vrilKLFS AMP PAiT"! ^i ]1'i
1 ' ,11
M6 AI'^BAPT TPUlP'-'IMTi MEf ' 137
MO CVtr«j Af,n p&pTS, TPAK^PTRTA ' UO
'«'
Its ftllOTpOPAPIII r rol!IPwrMT ' 146
I4H r<"Vfi SonnTjMr, r.flOOS i MtIS tf A 111
IM «ML«nAns 15?
jr;/, i^ATrp TPAN^PTJTATIOM 154
/ f
I6T wMO[r«4iB TPAnr 16%
lift INIllHANfr ANP P.linKFn«S ACTNT ' 167
169 iirrri ^^|n inor.iNT, PiACri ( J70
17? hryprmtiu1' I 173
' l .
17S Hfnifu SFcVtrr1: 17A
1 / •"
HF.TAI, CANS
STRUCTURAL XETAl PPjnUCTfi
CUTLfPr, HAND TCOLS, AMD HAP
OTHER cAnprc»Tro »TTAL PRPOU
CWSTFIICTIONi HTNINC, ANO "I
MACMiNf 'nnis, MrfAi priMtNc
PUMPS, enters SIP Si ntowpp-s
,NOIJSTOJU pAT1FPN,
SFPVirp (NfHISTBY MAriMNrKV
TRAKSFORMFRS AND SW|!|irr,FAR
WCLDIMC APPARATUS AMP RRAPHI
OAOin AND TV PECriVfNC
•
FLpCTPnNtr TOMPONENTS
X-RAY FOUIPHtNT ANP FLFCTRIC-
ATPrRA^T
SHIP Ann noAT nuitnur, AND R
TRAll FR mACHFS
OPTIfAL ANO OPHTHALK1C finOOS
WATCHES, f LOCKS ANO PARTS
PFFtfF SUPPl ICS
P.US'S
AIPLIfFS
TFLCPHnUG AMD TELEGRAPH
NATUPtl CAS '
RETAIL TpAOr
owNFp-r'fcuPico nun LINGS
PFRSTNAL ANn PCPAIf '.FRVIfES
AOTO PFPAJP ' •
PRIVATE SHCOniS AMt> UC'JPPPFf
LOCAL CnVFPNHFNT PASSENfiFP T
-------
~ i«i ? t<»FfTCv'XTt P'"" 102 nusiNfTS'TRAVFL • ie> PPFICP'sUI'Pues
INriJSTRY IBJ COMPUTFR
-------
DISCUSSION
The source usad by Almon is the input-output table developed by
the Department of Commerce. Almon has updated the Commerce table to 1971,
and he has obtained time series of much of the data used in constructing
this input-output table. Fron these tine series, he has estimated equations
that predict consumer demand, expenditure of state and local government,
investment, exports, imports and employment.
The underlying sources of data, used by the Department of Commerce in
the input-output table, and by Almon tor his additional equations, is the
Census of Manufactures and other censuses (Census of Business, Census of
Minerals, Census of Transportation) as well as innumerable other sources.
First was developed additional detail for forecasting environmental
emissions by disaggregating sectors and by introducing substitutions and
technology changes where relevant. Most of this detail was obtained from
the Bureau of Mines, updated data of the kind published in Minerals Facts
and Problems. Additional data cane from the Cens'us of Manufactures or
trade sources. The analysis of substitution and technological change made
use of technological sources which identify when a change is underway. Data
are obtained in order to estimate the rate at which the change is occurring.
lM1985 Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy", Clopper Almon, Jr.
et al., University of Maryland, Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
College Park, Maryland.
-------
INFORUM - INSIDE
The following charts give examples of how relevant sectors in INFORUM
are disaggregated in order to increase their sensitivity to environmental
issues. This disaggregation is accomplished by side equations and subequa-
tions in a submodule called INSIDE.
-------
'is ft
n "uAMrT "(jTiot 2)
niPAne NAPRPH
15 31 Pnifir. NARROW >Thi coTiW
nj m rLfTHir (=L">NA.rF psortss
"Uo~"> FI rfnirtTY py nit
rfrrT"BY~
BJ 3* PPFN HFCRTH PVOCTSS
160 I CLFCTRICirY OY CCAL
160
3 ELFCTPICnY PY NAT7 G4T
. nv to SOL
ICO 30
160 33 ELEC. 1W Ml SULFUR .OIL
160 34
"ISO" 17
FLK. flY HI TFMP GA<;
f\ff,'M N«TluiL~~r,AS
160 35 fLEC. OY WATFR MOO. REACTORS
T«TirR^~?prNt~TOlI~SoBT
T60
ica 36 fire, nv GASIFIED COAL
~Ss i cTiCO" Ttfe '
•iS 3
5S
INOPGA»7!C fill
j" uVh>nrTTiii
SS
5<
rt UniuM r/mvwT<--
D? 1 AWSTOS RpnruCTS
nrt
mi
08
i',
•5
7
70
j im«mij«
6 >TRYLL rill
«> ooin
1 |NIUI^T>UL CdMnilSTIPNI IOAL
i roMH
i wLr«;
1 CANF «;tir.Ai>
55" 9 "TltANIIJM lHOXlbS
00
6B
* 80
OR
70
5
r
?R
1 fl'RriKlllH
* CADMIUM
7v TANTALUM
1
10 S1LVFR
1 INOIISTRIAL fOt'BUSTIONt OIL
2 !*LLS
30
W MFG PAPrS/PATTrt HlLLS
60~'''io ft"'="w~"irT"rH. ?f"TKfVCnTM"PTFINING ' > _ 69 31 fx.n TF<"H. PEfpTjCTTIK
03 3i*~ nfrmvr r"'iKiNc"*tr^r"'')!?'. r~ ' i 55~T3 jflbi' AT
1
TS"1*?"" CHLP«i»iF~f FO/ntAPHiAfw cril ""T 5"5~yr~"fHL'OPiNP 'HFG"
63 10 BYPfioO'JCT COKING IN STffL KF
T5~31—snffirn H~nrff7~5 r cv*y~pprc F s r
CELL
" 45
Z-tOf N fTF
3 30 FFFOTfft fATTLF RAISIMC
"3 31" PASTUPE/RANCE CATTLE »A IS IJJG ,'~T~Tn
-------
68 12 H?0 SOIUBLF P41NT INCUSTPUI 68 33 SOtVFNT BASE PAINT IHDL5TP1A
0*H P»nr N*C *j.iJCfVA / ' 67 JJi SAYFP-HHL PftPC HFC 4LUMtfU 38 30 SVNTHCTIC KNITTIKC
,
Ml 31 fOTTOM KNITTINfi '• . '< t MUNICIPAL SfWAGF ' . ' '• «> 2 PHnSPHATF. POCK
0 A TITA'ITtlM OPP ' 9 'f MiTTR KASCO PAINTS CONSMMPTN 9 ! SOLVEN BASED PAINTS' CONSUMPT
•)'' t, O 4-V ' §0 7 IF»0 ' '' • •»' •'»'"«»' 0' IINC !
-------
SIDE.EQUATIONS
DISAGGREGATING SECTOR 55:
THE INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
55:01 CHLORINE
55:02 NITRIC ACID
55:03 ORGANIC CHEMICALS
55:04 INORGANIC CHEMICALS
55:05 HYDROFLUORIC ACID
55:06 SULFURIC ACID
55:07 PHOSPHORIC ACID
55:08 SODIUM CARBONATE
55:09 TITANIUM DIOXIDE
55:10 PHOSPHORUS
55:09 TITANIUM DIOXIDE (tons) « [10,9 x X36 + 16.81 x X4Q + 9.97 x X62 + 124.2 x XgQ + 6.21 x X73]/.871 + E - I
Mere: E = Exports
1 s Imports
X36 = Output In dollars from Almon Sector 36 (Floor Coverings)
X48 a Output 1n dollars from Almon Sector 48 (Paper and Paperboard Mills)
X62 * Output 1n dollars from Almon Sector 62 (Plastic Material and Resins)
X68 = 0utPut 1n dollars from Almon Sector 68 (Paint, Varnishes and Lacquers)
X73 = Output 1n dollars from Almon Sector 73 (Rubber Products)
-------
INFORUM BASIC EQUATIONS
Y, = X - I A .X. where
J J J
Yi = CP1 + E1 - Iq + AlNVj + EC1
Y. = Final demand for output of sector i
X.j = Total output level of sector i
A . = inter-industry matrix element ij: sales from sector i to sector j,
expressed as a fraction of the output from sector j
OP., = consumer purchases from sector i
EJ = exports of output from sector 1
L - .imports competitive with outputs from sector i
AlNV1 = change in inventory of output from sector 1
EC.| = output from sector i to equipment and construction in other sectors
-------
SUBEQUATIONS:
TITANIUM DIOXIDE AS AN EXAMPLE
Titanium Dioxide 1s manufactured by processing rutile via the chloride process, 1lmen1te via the chloride
process or 1lmen1te v>a the sulfate process.
55:34 Chloride extraction of'T102 from 1lmen1te = (1 - L^t)) x L2(t)
55:35 Chloride extraction of T102 from rutile = L^(t)
55:36 Sulfate extraction of T102 from ilmenite = 1 - L^t) - (1 - L^t)} x L2(t)
A
L,(t) « : For Base Case: k, « .25
1 1 + EXP (-k, x (t - t ,)) '
^l" 1967
A * .20
1
L (t) = For Base Case: k« = .130
^ 1 f EXP (-k, x (t - t,)) ^
L - °* t.o» 1977
-------
WE NEED FOR SIDE rQfJATIQNS AND SUEEQUATZONS
EXAMPLE: Titanium Oxide
YEAR
SECTOR
Side-Sector
Sub-Sector
OUTPUT
UNITS
1971
55 - INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
55.09 TITANIUM OXIDE
55.34
55.35
55.36
Chloride extraction from ilmenitc
Chloride extraction from rutilc
SulCate extraction from ilmenite
16,872
0.792
0.213
0.116
0.464
10 5
106t
10 t
106 t
106 t
1900
55 - INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
55.09 TITANIUM OXIDE
55.34
55.35
55.36
Chloride extraction from ilmenito
Chloride extraction from rutile
Sulfate exr'action from ilmenite
28,774
1.117
0.533
0.215
0.364
10G S
106 t
106 t
1C6 t
106 t
Overestimate of H2SO^ pollution from 55.36 if
*
No side equation 55,09 had been built:
No sub-equation hod been built?
80%
-------
GENERATION OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION RESIDUALS
RESGEN
INPUT DATA
WATER QUALITY
Development Documents for Proposed Effluent Limitations Guidelines
and Uew Source Performance Standards for.. (25 industries), United
States Environmental Protection Agency, June-December, 1973.
The Cost of Clean Water Industrial Waste Profiles Nos 1-10. Federal
Water Pollution Control Administration, U.S. Department of the
Interior, 1967,
"Water Use in Manufacturing 1968," 1967 Census of Manufactures,
U.S. Department of Commerce.
Acid Mine Drainage in Appalachia, Appalachian Regional Commission, 1969.
Water Quality Engineering for Practicing Engineers. W. Wesley Eckenf elder Jr
(Barnes & Noble, 1970).
AIR QUALITY
Parti cul ate Pollutant System study, volume I - Masr Emissions,
Midwest Research Institute, May 1, 1971. Prepared for the Air
Pollution Control Office, EPA, Durham, North Carolina
Hydrocarbon Pollutant Systems Study, Volume I - Stationary Sources,
Effects, and Control, MSA Research Corporation, October, 1972. Prepared for the
Office of Air Programs, EPA, Research Triangle Park, N C
Control Techniques for Sulfur Oxide Air Pollutants, 2nd Edition, Office
of Air Programs, EPA, 1972
Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, 2nd Edition, Office of
Air Programs, EPA, April 1973.
The Economics of Clean Air, 1972.
Air Pollution from Nitration Processes, Processes Research, Inc.,
March 31, 1972. Prepared for the Office of Air Programs, Environmental
Protection Agency.
Atmospheric Emissions from Nitric Acid Manufacturing Processes, Committee
on Pollution Abatement and Control, National Academy of Engineering, 1972
Control Techniques for Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Stationary Sources,
National Air Pollution Control Administration, March 1970.
SOLID WASTE
Problems and Oppostunities in the Management of Combustible Solid Waste
Internationa] Research and Technology Corp , 1972. Prepared for the - '
Office of Solid Waste Management, EPA, Cincinnati, Ohio
Solid Waste Management- A Comprehensive Assessment of Solid Waste Needs
Problems, and Practices, Office of Science and Tprhn.^njy ,^y }a^ - '
Minerals Yearbook. 1970, U.S Department of .^Interior.
-------
ABATEMENT
Municipal Waste Facilities in the United States Statistical
Summary - 196tT Inventory, Federal Water Quality Administration.
U.S. Department of the interior, 1970.
"Appendix b--Examples of Emissions Limitations Attainable with
Reasonably Available Technology," Federal Register, Vol. 3t>,
No. 228, November 25, 1971.
Analysis of Final State Implementation Plans - Rules and Regula-
tions, Office of Air Programs, Stationary Source Pollution Control
Programs, EPA, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
INPUT DATA
ENDOGENOUS
Annual dollar outputs of economic sectors of INFORUM
Annual output in physical units of subsectors from INSIDE.
-------
1
1
1I.FORUM
Sector Output
RESIDUALS FRAMEWORK
U.FORUH
Sub-sector
Oi fn-tE
Base"
Jbture Year ti
Year
Cross Residual
per unit out-
put in base yr
i
I
Technology ^ I
Changes j
r
Total Cross
Residuals output
by Sector in
base year
'
Extent and
Efficiency of
Abatement in
base year
Gross Residual
aer unit output
in >ear n
i
Total dross
Residual out-
put by sector
in year n
New Abatement
Improved iecn.
Extent & Eff-
iciency of
Abatement in
year n
}«et Eaicted
Residuals in
Base Year
Captured
Resid'uals
Unrecycled|
(Transformed) f"
Rec>cled
(Tr?-sforced)
etc.
etc.
-------
VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS
• Gross residuals per unit of output in year n.
• Extent of abatement in year n.
• Efficiency of abatement in year n.
- Extent of recycling in year n.
- DISAG
OUTPUT
• Tons of each residuals from each sector and subsector in each year,
as gross, net, captured, recycled, and unrecycled.
INPUT TO OTHER MODULES
• Air and Water Abatement Cost Modules
• Post Processor - National Summary Output
-------
DISCUSSION
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS
Tne computational process begins with the gross residuals coefficients,
which are in tons/million dollars for INFORUM sectors and in tons/million tons
for subsectors. After total gross residuals are obtained, factors for
the extent and efficiency of each residual by each sector are applied,
yielding net residuals. Gross residuals minus net residuals equals captured
residuals. A recycling rate is then applied to the caputred residuals to
yield recycled and unrecycled residuals. All variables are time dependent
-------
Input —Output
Driver
U. of Maryland
MATRIX
Side Equations
RESGEN
Gross
Residual
Matiix
Side
Equation
Gross
Residual
RESGEN
Net
Residual
Matrix
Side
Equation
Net
Residual
INFORUM RESGEN SCHEMATIC
-------
RESGEX TAXOXOMIC CODING SYSTEM
-------
Residuals Taxonomy and Coding System
In the interests of uniformity of data input and flexibility of output , a
taxonomic coding system lu s been developed *or the residuals which are
processed by RESGFN and by the other modules of SEAS
The system consists of a ten-digit code, as follows.
1st and 2nd digits: Residual Category
Particulates 01
Sulfur Oxides 02
Nitrogen Oxides 03
Hydrocarbons 04
Carbon Monoxide 05
Photochemical Oxidants 06
Other Gases and Mists 07
Odors 08
Biological Oxygen Demand 09
Chemical Oxygen Denand 10
Total Organic Carbon 11
Suspended Solids 12
Dissolved Solids 13
Nutrients 14
Acids 15
Bases 16
Oils and Greases 17
Surfactants 18
Pathogens 19
Waste Yrater 20
Thermal loading 21
Combustible Solid t'/aste 22
Non-Combustible Solid Waste 23
Bulky V/aste 24
Hazardous Waste 25
Mining V/aste 26
Industrial Sludges 27
Sewage Sludge 28
Herbicides 29
Insecticides 30
Fungicides 31
Misc. Pesticides 32
Radionuclides to Air 33
Radionuclidcs to Water 34
Radionuclides to Land 35
-------
3rd and 4th digits- Rcsidaal Conponcnt
Not Applicable 00
Alunirun 01
Arj-oni.ua h>dro\ide 02
Antirony 03
Appliances 04
Arsenic 05
Asbestos 06
Ash 07
Auto-robiles 08
Bacteria 09
Banur-.-140 10
Berylliun 11
Boron 12
Botanical Insecticides 13
Cadmium 14
Carbar.ate Insecticides 15
Cesiun-134 16
Cesiun-137 1',
Cesiun-144 18
Chloraraine 19
Chlorine 20
Chromium 21
Cobalt-60 22
Concrete, Masonry 23
Copper 24
Coppsr Fungicides 25
Crop Waste 26
Cyanide 27
DithiocarbaTate Fungicides 28
Ferric Chloride 29
Ferric Sulfate 30
Ferrous Metals 31
Fluorine 32
Food Y.aste 33
Garden Viaste 34
Glass 35
Household Furniture 36
Hydrogen-3 37
Inoiganic Herbicidss 38
Inorganic Insecticides 39
Iodine-129 40
Iodine-131 41
Krypton-85 42
Lai.thamra-140 43
Lead 44
Leather 45
Livestock Viaste 46
I'ercury 47
Kire Overburden 48
Kine Tailings 49
Miscellaneous Fungicides 50
Nitrr.tes , 51
Non-Ferrous (Totals , Misc. 52
-------
Hcrbi CT.d'_< 53
Organic Met cut y I'unj.'i.clclc', 54
Or^auochloi me Iirccticidcs 55
Organophosphoiu3 Insecticide 5G
Other Synthetic Organic
Insecticides 57
Paper 58
Phenols 59
Phosphates 60
Pthalimidc Fungicides 61
Plastics 62
Radiura-266 63
Radon-222 64
Rubber 65
Ruthenium-106 66
Sand, Stone, Soil 67
Selenium 68
Slag 69
Strontium-90 70
Tellurium 71
Textiles 72
Thaliu 73
Tires 74
Vanadium 75
Viruses 76
Water, Cooling 77
Water, Process 78
Wood 79
Zinc 80
5th digit; Primary Carrier Medium/Reporting Category
Air 1
Water 2
Land 3
In Use 4
Pesticide 5
Radiation 6
6th digit: Secondary Carrier Medium
Not Applicable 0
Air 1
Water 2
Land 3
7th digit; Source
Point 1
Area 2
Mobile 3
Sth digit Product of Comoustion
Yes 1
No 2
-------
9th dipit- Tjpe of Econonic \ctivity
Extraction 1
Production 2
Distribution 3
Consumption 4
Disposal 5
10th digit; Toxicity
None 1
Low 2
Medium 3
High 4
-------
DISAGGRECATION' TO STATES OF RESIDUAL EMISSIONS
("DISAG" Module)
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
•County Business Patterns
(State employment for Aliaon sectors in 1971)
•OBERS Projections
(earnings by states for 1980, OBERS sectors)
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
•Residuals tor the Nation for 1971-1985 (or 1980)
-------
RESGEN
National
Emissions
1971
Employment
by State
Airaon sectors,
1971
State Emissions
by Almon
sector, 1971
Earnings
by State,
OBERS
sectors,
1980
-*o
RCSGEN
National
emissions
1980
Earnings
by State
for Almon
sectors,
1980
State emissions
by
Almon sector
1980
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS:
DISAGGREGATION MODULE
-------
VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS
•None
OUTPUT
•State shares of emissions for Almon sectors for 1971 and 1980
INPUT INTO OTHER MODULES
• Output to Post Processor
• Output File
* National Summaries
• Regional Summaries
-------
DISCUSSION
INPUTS' The Annual County Business Patterns contains employment data for
detailed sectors so that employment shares for 1971 can be
calculated for each Alnon sector. The Census does not have,
however, 1980 projections at this level of detail (i.e , 3- and
A-digxt SIC level).
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS; Calculating the 1971 employment shares for RESGEN
sectors is done by dividing state employment by national employment
This share enables calculation of 1971 state emission shares.
In order to calculate 1980 shares of emissions, the OBERS forecast
earnings must first be allocated to detailed Almon sectors. This
is done using the 1971 sector shares for states from the Census,
by dividing combined sector employment into employment for each
component sector and applying the ratio obtained to the OBERS
earnings. Once the sector earnings are obtained, state earnings
ratios are used to disaggregate 1980 emissions.
-------
AIR ABATEMENT COST SUBMODULE
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
The Cost of Clean Air 1973 Report
(capital and operating costs of abatement by plant
capacity for selector sectors, and size distribution
of plants.)
ENDOGENOUS
Annual growth in sales by sector from INFORUM
(used to forecast new plants)
-------
Sales d Employment
forecast from
INPOUVM
Allocate
New Production to new
Plants by Size
Apply
Abatement
Cost Curves
from CCA*
Cost of Control for
each Sector for each
Year
Add Annual
Investment
for controll-
ing cmmisston
from existing
plant
Y Output
Annuallzcd cost of
control for each
sector
*Co3t of Clean Air Report
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS:
AIR ABATEMENT COST SUBMODULE
-------
VARIABLE SCENARIO ?;_?.% ZTERS
, Proportion of r&. capacity* in different size classes for each sector
. Interest rate ard equipment life
OUTFIT
. Control Costs ( capital, operating and maintenance ) for existing
facilities by size and sector
. Control costs for new facilities by size and sector
INPUT INTO OTHER MODULES
. Output to Post Processor
. Output File
. National Surmaries
-------
DISCUSSION
INPUT DATA The air abatement cost submodule is essentially a computerization
of the 1973 Cost of Clean Air Study by Battelle Institute The
main components obtained from this study are two cost variables
(capital, operating and maintenance) for control facilities.
The cost of control are linked to INFORUM because the cost
submodule uses output from INFORUM to determine the number of
new plants which will be built. The module user may specify
the size distribution of new plants If not specified, the
size distribution of existing plants is used.
COMPUTATION PROCESS: In the model operation, sales increases from INFORUM
are allocated to plant sizes and numbers and the costs of
emission control are applied. These costs are calculated for
capital and operating expense, and the capital costs is
annualized by applying a capital recovery factor. Costs of
control for existing facilities are added In summary, the
two main features of this model are distribution of new plant
capacity to size classes, and calculation of costs, including
annualized costs.
SCENARIO PARAMETERS' Three size classses have been defined and separate
control costs have been adapted from CCA for each class,
within each sector The user specified a percent in each
class if he wishes
Setting the interest rate changes. The overall cost by
changing the interest amount each year on capital.
-------
Wastewater
from Resgen
by
Sec-tor
Apply
Cost
Curves
for
plant
size
Add Costs
oL
cleaning
up
existing
plants
Alt. //I
Internal
Treatment
Alt. //2
Municipal
Treatment
Alt. //3
Choose
Cheapest
OUTPUT
Total
by sector
for three
(3)
Al tcrnnt-
Lves
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS:
WATER ABATEMENT COSTS MODULE
-------
WATER ABATEMENT COS1S MODEL
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
Census of Manufacturing ana County Business Patterns
size (number of eiaplovees) , distribution of plants
•water use per employee per sector
AWARE study
•costs of treatment for plants by size (water use)
ENDOGENOUS
RESGEN
•wastewater generated by sector
•BOD and SS content of water
INFORUM
•growth rates for sectors
-------
VARL".ELE SdXARIO P:J?AM7TEPS
. Interest Rate arc Eciupnert lafe
.Clean up Target Year
OLTPLT
. Costs for Water Sbaterent, by type of cost ( capital, operating and
rraintenance) for three alternatives (internal, municipal, mixed)
for each sector
INPUTS B.TO OTKEP :PDULES
. Output to Post Processor
. Output File
. Rational Sunmaries
-------
DISCUSSION
INPUf .DATA The assumption in thL<> snbmoilulo Is that .il L nc'inlcd Lnvc-sl nu-uL
will be made by a specific year The delta Inputs from Census.
of Manufacturing enable a distribution of new plants to be
defined, as well as providing a basis for applying AWARE cost
data to existing plants.
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS For existing plants, AWARE enables the direct calcu-
lation of clean-up costs. RESGEN data together with size
distribution of plants are used to get water use in different
size plants. AWARE cost functions are used to get capital and
operating and maintenance costs for different size plants
These are then aggregated to give total costs for industry
For new plants, a growth factor taken from INFORUM for the
given sector is added to total annual costs.
-------
COMPUTATIONAL
PROCESS:
( i It u l.iU'il hy Mucl.il bplil
i Oc cup nicy KaL to
-------
TRANSPORTATION MODULE
I\PuT DATA
EXOGENOUS
'DOT Highway Needs Study (VMT torecnsts by State)
DOT Transportation Projections (Freight Ton-Miles, Ratios of Passenger
and Freight VMT)
•Census of Transportation (Freight Modal Split) '
•EPA Emissions & Fuel Consumption
•EPA Automobile Abatement Cost Data (Non-Recurring, Recurring Costs)
•Statistical Abstracts (Modal Split Passenger Travel)
ENDOGENOUS (From Other SEAS Modules)
•Population Forecasts
•Personal Disposable Income by State
•Earnings of Manufacturing Sectors by State
-------
DISCUSSION
VIT bv Mode
passenger Miles ^Traveled (PMT) and treight Ton-Miles are apportioned
to different modes in both inter (passenger and freight) and intracity
(passenger) travel Dividing by the occupancy ratio (Passengers per
Vehicle) the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by vehicles in each mode
obtained
Emissions
Net emissions are calculated utilizing the formula
NEij)k = (EF)iJ X ^ik
Where
NE , = Net emission by mode i, of pollutant j, in state k
(EF)X, = Emission factors for pollutant 3 per VMT by mode i
VMTlk = Vehicle Miles Travelled by vehicles in mode i for state k
Scenario Sensitivity
Variation among scenarios is accomplished in the following formulae
(DPDsk (PMT)k
PMTks - (DPI)ok
PMTks = Passenger Miles Travelled state k for scenario s
DPI = Disposable Personal Income for scenario s
s - scenario s
o = scenario o
k = state k
DPI is endogenous input from INFORUM and may vary with different
scenarios .
FTMj, = dk X C X Freight Shipments Dollars
Mk = Freight Ton-Miles in state k
^ = ratio of tne SUT of the earnings of manufacturing sectors in
nation
c = constant obtained from Faucett data and INFORUM
-------
DISCUSSION
VMT by Mode
Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT) and Freight Ton-Miles are apportioned
to different modes in both inter (passenger and freight) and intracity
(passenger) travel Dividing by the occupancy ratio (Passengers per
Vehicle) the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by vehicles in each mode
obtained
Enissions
Net emissions are calculated utilizing the formula-
X VMTlk
Where
NE , = Net emission by mode i, of pollutant j, in state k
(EF)-,-, = Emission factors for pollutant j per VMT by mode i
= Venicle x^les Travelled by vehicles in mode i for state k
Sdenario Sensitivity
Variation among scenarios is accomplished in the following formulae*
(PPDsk (PMT) i
PMTks = (DPI)ok
PMTks = Passenger Miles Travelled state k for scenario s
DPI = Disposable Personal Income for scenario s
s = scenario s
o = scenario o
k = state k
DPI is endogenous input from INFORUM and may vary with different
scenarios .
FTMk = dk X C X Freight Shipments Dollars
FTMk = Freight Ton-Miles in state k
dk = ratio of the sun of the earnings of manufacturing sectors in
nation.
c = constant obtained from Faucett data and INFORUN
-------
Automobile Emission Control
Net Emissions After Control
The net emission of each pollution (j) due to use of control devices
can be represented by the follow function
Q = emission rate for pollutant j
F'j, = exhaust emission factor pollutant 3 (ad3usted for control)
model year i, F'^ = F^ (—-Z^ii) j aij = effectiveness percentage
for model year i for pollutant j
DIJ = deterioration factor for species j at the end of the ith year
Vi = annual vehicle miles traveled by model year (i)
Costs of Abatement
Costs are divided into recurring and nonrecurring costs Annual
recurring costs per vehicle for a specific model year is given by
.R _
C = f/C3l, (P/MPG), C4l, Vj
•n
C|L = recurring cost for model year i
C3X = annual maintenance cost/vehicle
P = price of gasoline $/gallon
MPG^ males per gallon car weight class 1
C4i = percent decrease in gas mileage
V-L = annual, vehicle miles traveled by model year (i)
j^ = estimated number of vehicles of model year (i) on the road.
/~Clx, C2l, CRF1,(V1/MPV1)_7
C^ = annual ized non-recurring costs for all vehicles model year (i)
C, = cost of abatement device
C2i = installation charge
-j^ = capital recovery factor model year i
-L = estimated number of vehicles of model year (i) on the road.
-------
NON-IXDLSTRIAL SPACEHEAT MODULE
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
•Handbook of Chemistry and Physics
(sulpnur content of coal and oil)
•EPA Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors
(emission of pollutant)
•EPA Direct Cost of Implementation
(annualized capital costs for abatement)
•National Petroleum Council
(supply of fossil fuels)
•MITRE Fuel Usage Study
(state allocations)
•Foster Associates (projected BTU demand)
ENDOGENOUS
•Census Data - Population
GNP Forecasts
•PDI Forecasts
-------
7. CTU
contributed
by lucl (i)
Space Heating
II rU DonKind
lorucnsting
Scale
COMPUTATIONAL 1'ROCCSS:
BlU'o
generated
by Coal
is IU' o
p.piioratcd
by Ucsidual
oil
DIU'n
gcnciatcd by
DisCillflte
oil
[JTU'a
generated
by Natural
cmiciion factor
BTU for fuel (1)
EF1
Net Residual
I'missiono
•mlCut content
limit
vary
Gross Residual
Cmisslois from
Spaceheatlng
vary
hi
Net Ri.sidual
Lmissions from
use of fuel
Substitution
d,c
d, % use of
fabric flftor
c, efficiency
of fabric filter
Net
Residual
Hmi^siono
t-ibric
Illter
NON-INDUSTRIAL SPACEHEATING MODULE
i ont't oC
- — » » — *-«
\b_
cost/DTU
for fnbric
filter
mit of fuel
-------
VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS
•Cost per Ton per Mode (Landfill, Incinerator, Other)
•Modal Ratios for each Region
OUTPUT
•Consumer Solid Waste Tons Allocated to Modes
(Landfill, Incinerator, Other)
•Total Cost by Mode
•Costs per Ton by Mode
United States
•Material Composition of Solid Waste
For States, Regions,
INPUT TO OTHER MODULES
•Post Processor
•Output File
•National Summaries
-------
DISCUSSION
INPUT DATA* The BTU requirements per capita were obtained from a study
done by MITRL for Office of Air Programs. These were
multiplied by population and emissions were calculated
based on BTU, ash and sulphur content per unit (gallon,
ton or cubic foot). The DCIM, a study done by CONSAD
for F.PA, Office of Air Programs, gives costs of fabric
filters.
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS;
The BTU per unit of fuel is applied to the BTU required
for total spaceheat, to obtain fuel quantities. The EPA
emission factors are applied to obtain gross emissions.
The abatement calculations are done by applying percentage
reductions based on the expected (user input) sulphur
limits, fuel mix changes, and fabric filters.
OUTPUTS; The total cost of abatement is obtained by summing the
dollars resulting from the prices of fuels and the cost
of fabric filters Sulphur limitation entails a specific
cost rise based on the cost of the low sulphur fuel.
Fuel substitution costs are based on the net change in
each fuel, and fabric filter costs are based on DCIM
data.
-------
HOUSEHOLD AND COMMERCIAL SOLID WASTE MODULE
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
Community Solid Waste Practices Survey
(tons of solid waste per person per state, total and allocated
to landfill, and total community budget for solid waste)
•OBERS (state and local government earnings forecast to 1990)
•Technical-Economic Study of Solid Waste Disposal
(incinerator capacity)
•Salvage Markets for Materials in Solid Waste
(Composition of Solid Waste)
ENDOGENOUS (From Other SEAS Modules)
•Personal Disposable Income by State (For Forecasts of Tonnages)
•Population Forecasts (For Allocation to Regions)
-------
Tons H/C Solid
Waste forecasts
Material Compos-
ition of Waste
(Output)
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS:
HOUSEHOLD
MODULE
Land Fill
Incinerator
Other
Tons
per
Mode
Disposal
Budget
Land Fill
Costs
Incinerator
Costs
Other
Costs
Costs
per
Mode
Costs per
Ton by
Mode
Regional &
National
Aggregation
COMMERCIAL SOLID WASTE
-------
VARIABLE SCE^ARIO PARAMETEPS
•Sulphur Content Limits for Coal, Distillate Oil and Residual Oil
'Proportion of each Fuel Used
•Percentage Price Increases in Fuels
OUTPUTS
"Total Emissions
•Costs of Each of Three Abatement Strategies
OUTPUTS TO OTHER MODULES
•Post Processor
•Output File
•National Summaries
-------
LAND USE MODULE
INPUT DATA
EXOGENOUS
• Urban land use acreage in base year from U.S Census Data and
Economic Research Service, U S.D'A., broken down according to
sub-uses (residential, commercial, etc ), from studies by Clawson,
Niedercorn and Bartholomew.
. National forecasts of urban land use are made by forecasting each
sub-use.
• Fraction of U.S urban land in each state, from E.R.S., U S.D.A.
This is requi' d for making regional urban land use forecasts.
• Agricultural, forest and parks acreage in base year, from data
supplied by E R.S., U.S.D.A., by state
• Forest land in production by state, from U S. Census Bureau
• Population projections and per capita personal income projections
by state, from OBERS, U.S.D C. and U S.D.A.
ENDOGENOUS
• National Population (U.S Census)
• U.S. Households (U.S. Census)
" Gross National Product
* Personal Consumption Expenditures INFORUM
(National)
Gross Private Domestic Investment
- Durable Goods
• Non-durable Goods
• Services
-------
BASF YEAR
FUI'URF YPAR
STOCKS & ]NDimS
NATIONAL
JLnLorum, census, 0111 KS
forcnsts
A(.KK'ULI
UKAI
FORFST
RFXRFALION
orm:R
RK.HN
AL1XAT10N
SI'A'I
NATIONAL
->•
(IRIiAN
AC! R ITU I.T-
UKAI
FORKSl1
RLCRFAIION
OTIIFR
I/A'I ION
COMPUTATIONAL PROCESS:
NATIONAL
ACUICU/.TDRAL
1-OKI SIM) 1 AND
RPC10
IW
ALI7ATION
S"AIF,
ACRT'CULTURAL
I'ORESltD LAND
URBAN 1 AND (, ROW 1 11
AGRTC
Dther Reserve
INDICES
LAND USE MODULE
-------
DISCLSSION
Once base year land uses are established, these are forecast by sub-use,
witn the help of salient variables such as GNP, population, durable goods,
PCE, etc. National land uses are forecast with the help of national
variables For regional forecasts, these variables are regionalized with
the help of OBERS projections of regional populations and income shares.
For each region, agricultural land stock is projected by subtracting newly
urban land from the base year stock, and is compared to base year agricultural
acreage which is held constant over time
Various scenarios can be tested related to housing density, urban
transit and/or rail development, mining activity, etc.
-------
VARIABLE SCENARIO PARAMETERS
• Additional acreage committed to extractive industries each year
• Fraction of new housing that is single family each year
• Fractional change of multi-family residential density per year.
• Fractional change of urban parking acreage per year (related to
urban transit development)
• Fractional change of railroad acreage per year
• Fractional change of per capita open space per year
OUTPUT
• A variety of urban land uses by state is forecast for each future
year.
• Agricultural land use and land stock by state is forecast, and
stock depletion indicator is calculated.
• Forest and recreational land use are forecast nationally and compared
to stocks.
INPUT INTO OTHER MODULES
• Output to Post Processor
• Output File
* National Summaries
-------
SECTION III
SEAS PROTOTYPE
APPLICATION
-------
III. SEAS PROTOTYPE APPLICATION
The following discussion is adapted from a briefing given to the
Environmental Protection Agency on January 18, 1974. It describes our
experiences with the model to that time (but does not reflect its current
status, which is improved significantly). This initial testing was
used to serve three purposes:
(1) By running a scenario of best current data, with expected
historical trends and present policies, the system provided a forecast
in its several summary and detailed reports of specific values that can
be compared to survey and other state-of-the-art analyses. Thus we could
judge SEAS output quality and get an appreciation of primary data or
system weaknesses.
By running alternative assumptions as separate scenarios, the other
two purposes are met:
(2) Analysis of the output of the alternatives provides a measure of
sensitivity. A complete enough trace of intermediate outputs is accomplished
that reasonable checking of system algorithms and data can be done when
operating in real-world number ranges.
(3) Finally, because we have gone through the required mechanics we
have developed an appreciation of how easy it is to make input changes
and to develop the output reports for analysis.
Without going into detail, generally the system is fully meeting our
expectations—it's easy to set up a run, the outputs and formata are the
appropriate ones for this level of analysis and the senaitivity to changes
-------
appears appropriate.
To illustrate using SEAS in policy analysis, let us discuss first
a rather simple comparative analysis of the effects of delays in imple-
menting some national environmental standards, and then a more complex
set of alternatives that provide different assumptions of public and
government reaction to energy constraints including the impact of these
reactions on the environmental pollution residual levels. These analyses
are a small subset of the testing checks that are under way now.
Several different scenarios have been run on the System including:
What if disposable income per capita were slightly reduced9
What if high energy using industrial sectors suppressed growth and
other sectors took up the production slack?
What if emission standards were delayed or were instituted at
different levels of treatment attainment?
What if selected industries increased coal and nuclear power usage?
What if buyer preference toward smaller cars continues?
What is mass transit increases its share of the passenger modal split7
What if railroad long haul grows?
Consider a first set of SEAS output results. The scenario of
interest here is the one we label as the basic data case and represents
the data in the SEAS system structure if no substitutions or override
options are applied. In qualitative terms, it characteristically encompasses
both the current thinking on probable standards enforcement dates and the
current data and known historical trends for the other areas.
-------
Results of this basic case for socio-economic factors are given in
Figure 1. The first year of the forecast in all scenarios is 1971.
Other reported years are 1974, 77, and 80. The three most right columns
give annual rates of growth over the listed period three, six or nine
years. As examples of impacts of these rates over several years:
o The labor force grows from 87 million to 102 million in 1980.
o Unemployment within that force declines from nearly 6% to 4.1% in
1980 giving an unemployed force of 5.1 million in 71 to 4.2 in 80.
o The industrial output factors across all 185 sector outputs show
a general moderating growth trend. As an example, the dollar worth
of output scaled to 1971 dollars increases 289 billion dollars
from 1971 to 1974 and only 225 billion from 1977 to 1980.
Turning to the environmental data— the net emission residuals
actually dispersed into the carrier medium—our basic data case provides
this array (see Figure 2). For air and water media a consistent pattern
of increasingly better treatment facilities over the years has caused
the emissions released to the general environment in nearly all cases to
decrease significantly from 1971. Note that for all water residuals
and the initial two air residuals the annual reduction rate for 71-77 is
greater than for 71-80. This represents the effect of our standard
timing assumptions of abatement policy for the basic case. These residuals
are primarily produced by industrial sectors; since plants of these
sectors must meet national emission standards by 1977 and, for this
scenario, the system does not treat the standards for the 80's; the full
plant-by-plant savings was realized by 1977 and the increased net pollution
to 1980 follows consistently the increased volume of output.
-------
BASIC DATA CASE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SUMMARY DATA
PARAMETER
POPULATION
LABOR FORCE
UNEMPLOYMENT
GNP/CAPITA
DISPOSABLE INCOME/CAPITA
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TOTAL OUTPUT
GROWTH RATE AM
VALUE 1971
207 MILLION
87 MILLION
5,1 MILLION
$5020,00
$2679,00
66,7 BILLION
1676 BILLION
71-74
,82%
1,97%
-9,83%
3,86%
3,38%
13,48%
5,44%
71-77
,85%
1,85%
-5,77%
2,90%
3,04%
8,26%
4,63%
UAL %
71-80
,89%
1,77%
-3,89%
2,71%
2 ,77%
6,71%
4,19%
102
4,2
Figure 1.
-------
For the last three air pollutarts a different pattern :s noted with
the rate of reduction increasing for each succeeding time span. Since
the major contributors to the national levels of these residuals are
heating and transportation and the national standards deal with new car
models only - not retrofits - in this scenario, the full reduction impact
will not be realized until the autos representing years with final emission
standards are in the majority. In 1980 about 44% of autos are final
emission standards vehicles with about 20% more meeting the interim standards
With this lead in to the national summary level statistics for
residuals, let us demonstrate an earlier point on the ability to trace
cause and effect in SEAS. This is possible because of our ability to call
several levels of detail on any statistic. Let us now look at some outputs
which demonstrate this.
Remaining with national data and the example of air residuals, Figure 3
shows the levels and the source contributors to the net residuals. On the
residual name row are the total net amounts for the four snapshot years.
Of the 14.91 million tons of particulates forecast for 1974, industries*
contribute 91% with transportation the next greatest source at 7%.
Let us go to greater detail — for particulates, we trace not only
v the grand total but also the levels for particulates of greatest concern
(see Figure 4).
In Figure 4 we show the net tons for 10 specific particulates in
1971, plus the annual rate of change to our final year 1980. But let's
go even further into detail. Consider the particulate LEAD: what industries
produce it and how much for the first and last forecast year in terms of
-------
SUMMARY POLLUTION DATA OUTPUT
NAT'L - ALL SOURCES, NET
PARAMETER
Aip
PARTICULATES
SOX
KOX
HC •
•
cu
WATER
BOD -
COD
SUSPENDED
SOLIDS
DISSOLVED
SOLIDS
NUTRIENTS
ACIDS
BASES
PROCESS HATER
SOL ip WASTE
COMBUSTIBLE
NON-COMBUSTIBLE
MINING
PESTICIDES
RADIATION
(POKER PLANTS)
AIR
HATER*
LAND
VALUE 1971*
20.50
. 30.66
19.91
29.78
125.70
8.13
10.01
9.16
25.30
.06
.58
• .11
22.79
GROHTH RATE - ANNUAL i
•
71-71
-10.1Z
-1.3X
•m.iz
-3.2Z
» -4.6X
-11.7Z
-11.41
-11.91
ia
-7.0X
. -11.9Z
-17.1X
0.6Z
1
725.80
63.03
3316.19
.136
4578
7
1,150,000
•
1.8Z
4.1Z
3.ql
1.81
41.82
71-77
-18.01
-7.22
+2.1Z •
-4.8Z
-7.5Z
-23.02
-21.7Z
-22.8Z
-3.7Z
-38.9Z
-15. 5Z
-66.4Z
-3.«
2.2Z
3.1Z
3.2Z
2.0Z
40.2Z-
71-80
-12. 1Z
-^1.52
+1.0Z
-4.7Z
-8.9Z
-15. 6Z
-W.7Z
-15. 5Z
-2.2Z
-27.22 .
-10.3Z
-51.3Z
-1.8Z
2.1Z
2.6Z
3.0Z
2.0Z
34.2Z
RESIDUALS IN MILLION TONS EXCEPT: WATER IN TRILLION GALLONS
RADIATION IN THOUSAND CURIES
Figure 2.
-------
AIR POLLUTION BY SOURCE
PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION
PARAMETER
PARTICULATES *
• • ••« n « 11 I ~* JsZ."
.A, rr T ^aaSaj _- t*.~?_A t J^^A?y* -^. ft. A^-
INDUSTRIAL
* TRANSPORTATION
SPACEHEAT
sox
I
T
S
KQX
I
T
S
K
I
T
S
01
I
T
i
S
GROSS 1971
* 114.91 '•'•'
***r*, jfJL*. i .. A* *
_.^j --•**.- ajgagL**-.?..-rJ IJ^A
^k
W.81
19.91
30.53
133.87
NET RESIDUALS
1971
20.50
94.«
4.5Z
1.1Z
30.6b
94.9%
2.12
3.12
19.91
34.7X
60.32
5.02
29.78
39.02
60.72
0.32
125.70
10.12
89.82
0.12
1971
14.91
91.32
=17.02
1.72
29.49
93.92
2.52
3.62
22.46
36.02
59.061
4.92
27.05
47.52
52.12
U.42
10y.24
10.42
89.5%
0.1%
-
1977
6.21
79. U%
16.7%
4.4Z
19.55
89.7%
4.2*
6.1%
22.61
39.9%
54.8%
5.3%
22.23
55.7%
43.8%
0.5%
78. 9y
4.b%
95.2%
0.2%
1980 1
6.45
81.3%
14.12
4.b%
2u.2y
89.0%
4.6%
6.4%
21.80
45.7%
48.2%
6.1%
19.22
67.4%
32.0%
O.b%
54.36
7.3%
92.4%
0.3%
vl
Figure 3.
-------
PARTICIPATE DETAIL
NAT'L SUMMARY
PARTI CULATES
ARSENIC
ASBESTOS
BERYLLUIM
CADMIUM
CHROMIUM
FLUORINE
LEAD
SELENIUM
VANADIUM
IINC
NET TONS 1971
20,5 A 106
8872
539
145
2992
12921
147818
262039
907
16544
118015
NET ANNUAL CHANGE 71-80
-12,1%
-4,8%
-7,8%
-17,1%
-4,1%
_on C\v
£U i U/o
-3,5%
-10,3%
-17,1%
-34,2%
-13,2%
Figure 4.
-------
tons of net dispersed residual? We have seven industrial sectors that
are coitributing.
Now this display which works well for who turns out a particular
residual, is not responsive to the question of what residual levels are
turned out by, say, the steel industry . The page of computer
output at Figure 5 shows this detail at the national level. Note the
basic elements of detail, the assignment of residuals goes within important
polluting sectors to the actual types of processes; note also the level
of detail on some of the pollutant categories.
Finally to any of the questions above, the qualifier can be added
of "where" does it happen? SEAS output forecasts the "where" not only as
a national total but also by Federal region and by state. Here is a
report of the last chart but now only for Federal Region II (Figure 6).
The point has been demonstrated that detail can be produced—the
corollary requirement also has been met—the output displays include
useful and brief summary formats, which is a valuable requirement for a policy
model.
Let us now depart from residuals to other elements of interest—one
of these is cost (see Figure 7). The set of costs presently existing in
the system structure are:
o industrial sector air treatment costs
o industrial sector water treatment costs
o spaceheat air residual abatement costs
o solid waste disposal costs
-------
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-------
P F S I 0 U * L
RESIOU4L CATEGORY
~ RESirXML CCMPOKIENT
PA«TICULATFS
CAD11UM
FLUOPIfE
- P»RT|CULtTES
'- Vf g"°
SOLtO WASTE
PART fill «TFS
CARHCN ••PI IXIOE
suspfj^-o SJLITS
P »f »4CLS
OlSSf'tVfO SOLIDS
CVAN11E
S1HOS
OISSILVn SOLIDS
CVAMOF
PHOSPHATES
"TIL A\r> O'FASES
SOLIDS
PHFH'ILS
OISSCLWCn SOLIDS
FLUJ'INF
OIL AMU T-«FASES
PROCESS WATER
S E
TAX-
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11221
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C T 0 R *E"ECtON I ! I
GROSS
.)6)UE»06
.21545
4486.4
20151.
85.926
48184.
21193.
.30411E»06
.3266lF»06
3)23.5
6979.1
707. 69
1934.5
17.114
142.24
73030.
7002.4
.31569E»06
131.22
296d5.
101.22
51.233
51.2)3
5.2740
4117.5
*
. 12270E*06
12589.
20457.
60416.
17.286
32.304
61.203
IB12.3
loasa.
7.3)05
15)1.9
3.1155
3.1155
323.46
CAPTURED
.15946E»06
.21346
4441.5
17229.
84.216
47702.
14833.
.2ftA9lc»Q6
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0 .
61310.
6657.3
.31379E06
112.51
20334.
41.788
49.404
35.095
4.3142
4093.0
.0
12465.
20144.
54374.
15.558
12.922
.0
17 >5.5
1079).
7.2ROO
1053.7
2.0043
2.1341
321.5)
1977
NET
3643.1
.19842E-02
44.865
2921.9
1.7100
482.23
6)57.0
15706.
.92A61E»06
132). 5
6979.1
707.69
1914.5
37.114
142.24
700.31
350.12
1*01.1 —
.71129
9150.9
61.9)2
1.8291
16.139
.95988
24.502
.12270E»06
12'.. 16
3)7.61
6041.7
1.7287
1S.3B2
61.203
16.736
65.H8
.50517E-01
43). 18
1.1112
.981)7
I. 92 '.8
21221 2066.3
.0
2066.3
Figure 6.
-------
NATIONAL COST ESTIMATES (MILLIONS $)
TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS
(BASIC CASE SCENARIO 1980)
INDUSTRIAL WATER TREATMENT
INDUSTRIAL AIR ABATEMENT
NON-INDUSTRIAL SPACEHEATING
MUNICIPAL boLID WASTE
5578,9
3025,1
1045,0
2032,8
(25 SECTORS)
(22 SECTORS)
Figure 7.
-------
A typical national summary of residual treatment costs for a snapshot
year are given in this figure for the final year 1980.
As a final topic concerning the basic data scenario, we have included
this example of weighting the five major air residual categories (Figure 8).
From 1971 to 1980 total tonnage of air residuals fell 46%. When any of
the three weighting schemes were applied to these changes, the results
were that the severity level decrease did not keep pace with the tonnage
change. For the MITRE measures developed for SEAS the drop is about 70%
of the unweighted tonnage drop. For two other weighting procedures, the
difference from the unweighted tonnage is not as great as shown
by the MITRE figures but is within 20%. Note that we have just begun
analysis of these MITRE weights and considerable further analysis is
needed before judging their utility.
As promised, what follows is an outline of two comparative analyses
of alternative scenarios. The basic data scenario for both of these analyses
will be used for the comparative benchmark. First—a relatively simple
example. In the basic data scenario, there is postulated a slippage of
time in the full enforcement of national emission standards for both
industrial and transportation air residuals from the original dates in
the appropriate Congressional Acts. What is the effect as noted in the
SEAS national summary data? When this scenario was set up and run
through SEAS, the results of the delay for our snapshot years are surprisingly
small. A large effect in 1974 for two major air pollutants exist but
minimal changes for other residuals and other years (see Figure 9).
-------
RESIDUAL SEVERITY WEIGHTING SCORES
(% CHANGE 71-80)
BASIC DATA SCENARIO
NON-WEIGHTED AIR RESIDUALS - TONS
-46,1%
WEIGHTED
-CEQ - BABCOCK
-STAR
-MITRE
-40,6%
707
I I/O
-33,4%
Figure 8.
-------
EFFECTS OF DELAYS IN AIR STANDARD REGULATIONS
DIFFERENCES IN NET EMISSIONS LEVELS
COMPARISON: BASE CASE TO ORIGINAL STANDARDS SCHEDULE .
PARTICULATES
SUX
NUX
HC
CU
'
-DlF
1974
MM
U.lX,
2, OX
3,2X
t
•FERENCE
1977
0
0
,651
(J
0
(X)
1980
,37X
0
,97X
0
0
SOURCE CONTRIE
INDUSTRIAL
80,2*
89, OX
45, 7X
67.4X
7.3X
UTION (1980)
TRANSPORT
13,9%
4.6X
48, 2X
32, OX
92, 4X
* BASIC - ALTERNATIVE x 100X
, "BASIC
Figure 9.
-------
Let's consider the form of the delays- the only effect in 1974 is the
industrial delay—no difference is noted in the auto delay until 1976, the
continuation year for interim standards for autos. The industrial sectors are
the primary contributors (over 90%) to particulates and sulphur dioxide but are
minor contributors to NOX, HC, and CO. Also in 1974 the industrial treatment
of NOX and HC causes a low improvement of net emissions over gross emissions.
By 1977 the effects of the industrial delay no longer exist—all plants
at least by 1977 have appropriate treatment facilities for the original 1975
standards.
This delay of the industrial standards has a high, short term effect.
Consider the effect of the auto delay—what does it really mean—
essentially all 1976 model autos need meet only interim standards rather
than final standards. This means in both 1977 and 1980 about 10% of the autos
have a higher rate of emissions for some residuals.
In summary then, the comparison of the effects of the two delays are.
o a major, short term effect for industrial pollutants
o a very small but longer time effect for transportation pollutants
Let's turn from this analysis to one that is more complex and one that
addresses some major changes in our use of historical trend data.
With the highlighting of the energy crisis of the past two months, a
number of short-term and long-term reactions have been noted. What is the
probable effect of these long-term reactions to conserve energy and of critical
types of energy on the environment7
We have addressed this analysis once again with comparisons to the Basic
Data Scenario. Let's look at a conservative reactions scenario. We consider
-------
a conservative reaction, one that can be accomplished without a major tech-
nological change and is relatively easily developed(£igure 10) .
The conservative scenario is outlined here with a static analysis estimate
of the probab]^ BTU savings. Its elements are:
o improved fuel housekeeping in all buildings by insulation, heat conduit
wrappings, etc.
o lightening the average auto and improving the efficiency of its
engine
o an increase of public transit facilities (doubling by 1985) and an
increase in the passenger load
o continue the present trend to nuclear-electrical production; plus
increase the coal share of fossil fuel generation from 55% to 72%.
Again, the scenario was prepared and inserted into SEAS.
First general socio-economic comparisons:
Here are the differences in terms of percentage to the Basic Data total
with a positive value meaning the energyvscenario has the higher figure.
With the exception of the higher capital investment figures and manufacturing
output, the energy summary data is close to the Basic Data Scenario results
(see Figure 11).
Next, to what level of energy conservation did the energy scenario
accomplish its purpose7 Figure 12 gives a ranking using the line item
amount in 1971 as a scale standard of 100. Note that for usage other than
electricity generation, significant savings are realized—compare the 1980
totals. For the Basic Data scenario, growth of about 35% is noted in all
totals For the basic energy conservative scenario, these growth rates are
about 25% for stationary fuel processes and only 13% for transportation
petroleum use. Thus substantial savings are realized.
-------
ENERGY RhACTIONS SCENARIO
(CONSERVATIVE)
ESTIMATED
BTU SAVING
OIL N,(DAS COAL ELECTRICITY
IMPROVED INSULATION -
RESIDENTIAL- COMMERCIAL
IMPROVED INDUSTRIAL
FUEL HOUSEKEEPING
AUTO IMPROVEMENTS
INCREASED PUBLIC TRANSIT
ELECTRIC PRODUCTION
1,936 + + +
2,8% + + +
6,0% +
1,0/0 +
-0,1%
>% NUCLEAR, 8% HYDRO,
)7o COAL, lb% UTHER
-OSSIL FUELS
Figure 10.
-------
DIFFERENCES IN AREA-ECONOMIC FACTORS [(ENERGY-BASIC)/BASIC]
UNEMPLOYMENT
GNP/CAPITA
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CONSUMPTION
OUTPUT
MANUFACTURING
SERVICES
LEVEL 1971
5,93%
$5020,00
$66,72 M
660,72
$1676 M
$684 M
$818 M
1974
-3,0%
+0,1%
+1,1%
-0,3%
-0,1%
+0,1%
-0,3%
1977
+2,7%
+0,1%
+3,8%
-0,3%
-0,1%
+0,7%
-0,3%
1980
-0,0%
-0,1%
+3,7%
-0,57o
+0,02Xo
+0,4%
-0,3%
Figure 11.
-------
Figure 12.
COMPARATIVE ENERGY USAGE
(CONSERVATIVE)
AMOUNT SCALED TO 1971 FIGURE OF 100
NON- INDUSTRIAL STATIONARY
TRANSPORTATION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
COAL
OIL
NATURAL GAS
TOTAL
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
COAL
OIL-
NATURAL GAS
TOTAL
74
111
110
115
115
117
116
119
139
102
117
J BASIC.".
77
121
122
129
127
129
128
133
174
97
129
80
Ulli
MM
140
138
137
iual
BB
BB
BB
141
*
CONSERVATIVE
74
108
105-
•112
111
113
112
126
118
101
117
77
116
110
123
118
12*
121
148
129
95
130
80
.124 j
LU3 l
130
123
130
128 ;
», , - -*
ppj
Bi
8223
142
-------
For electrical generation, no overall saving is postulated—in fact, a
relative increase of a fraction of a percentage occurs in the energy saving
scenario. But of major interest is the change in shares assigned within the
fossil fuel categories. Growth in coal usage for power goes from 47% to 71%
over nine years while the drop in oil as a source for electrical generation
drops from doubling over nine years to only 39% of the 1971 rate. Natural gas
in both cases is a declining source for electricity with the relative decline
for the energy scenario accelerated by 50%.
Overall the BTU savings in 1980 from the Basic Case is 8% in a total use of
69 quadrillion BTU's. The total energy use growth from 1971 to 1980 is 40%
for the Base Case and 30% for this conservative reactions scenario.
If this is what is noted in energy savings, what is the relative impact
in the environmental residuals7
Figure 13 compares rates of net residual generation. The left most and
right most numerical columns provide the actual levels of residuals forecast
in the energy scenario in the first and last snapshot year. The three central
columns provide a ranking as compared to the Basic Case; a negative value
means the energy conservation scenario had the lower level at that year.
For air pollutants, significant improvement over the basic case is noted
for all but sulphur dioxide. SOX grows slightly reflecting the increased use
of coal for electric power generation and within that category the increased
use of high-sulphur-content coal. The three pollutants that have a heavy
residual contribution from vehicles and heating are the three that drop the
most, reflecting the high petroleum conservation difference.
-------
Figure 13.
DIFFERENCE IN NET RESIDUALS [(ENERGY-BASICVBASIC]
AIR
PARTICULATES
sox
NOX
HC
CO
WATER
BOD
COD
SOLIDS
SUSPENDED
DISSOLVED
NUTRIENTS
PROCESS WATER
LAND
COMBUSTIBLE
NON-COMBUSTIBLE
MINING
i *
*M ILL I ON TONS
LEVEL 1971*
20,50
30,66
19,91
29,78
125,70
8,13
10,01
9,16
25,30
,060
2A79
725, 8U
63,03
3316,19
1974
-0,01%
+1,45%
-2,727o '
-3,327o
-4,847o
-0,067o
-O.OlXo
+0,047o
+0,037o
+0,02%
+0,097o
+0,027o
+0,307o
+9,^2%
1977
-1,83%
+0,437o
-4,977o
-6,067o
-10,987o
-0,057o
-0,0l7o
+0,277o
+0,187o
+0,837o
+0 , 577o
+0,077o
+0 , 987o
+4,957o
1980
*
-2,40%
+l,187o
-6,457o
-8,277o
-16,747o
-0,147o
-0,047o
+0,21
+0,U1%
+0,737o
+0,43%
+0,047o
+0,957o
+6,7l7o
LEVEL 1980 *
ENERGY SCENARIO
6,30
20,53
^0,59
17,63
45,26
1,76
2,40
2,U2
2U.67
,004
19,37
875,50
80,38
4618,87
-------
As far as the other media, with the exception of increased solid waste
from mining that reflects the increased coal extraction, little relative sen-
sitivity to the details of the two alternative scenarios is noted. The
differences for a given pollutant do show consistent trends (increasing or
decreasing) but in no case is the relative level greater than 1% of total net
residuals for that pollutant.
Comparing industrial operating costs for the two scenarios in 1980 shows
little difference; the energy scenario is always highest but by less than 1%,
Generally, then, the proposed reactions to the energy crisis which
we have used here and labeled as conservative do give appropriate trends
in the total energy use, economic situation and residual contexts.
Little change in socio-economic projections occurred, yet 8% savings
in energy usage by 1980 was produced. The impact on the environment is an
improvement for most air residuals with little effect in the other media
except due to increased coal mining. Within the air residual arena,
only the SOX category shows significant degradation over present trends;
the other four residuals all show significant improvement.
This abbreviated presentation of a small portion of the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System does give the reader an appreciation for
the detail and complexity built into the system. For a more complete
analysis of the Prototype, see the following three publications:
o Final Report, The Strategic Environmental Assessment System
Prototype, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Spring 1974.
o Users Manual, The Strategic Environmental Assessment System
Prototype, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, April 1974.
o Test Case Run Book, The Strategic Environmental Assessment
System Prototype, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
April 1974.
-------
SECTION IV
EXAMPLE OUTPUT
PAGES OF SEAS MODULES
-------
IV. EXAMPLE OUTPUT PAGES OF SEAS MODULES
The following pages are selected pages taken from the Prototype System
Test Run-Book to provide some insight into levels and scope of output
information and report formats. These are:
1 General Scenario Input Parameters
2 General Summary of Economic Levels
3. General Summary of Economic and Consumer Trends
4 General Summary of Total Air Pollution Residuals, 1971-1983
5. General Summary of Total Water Pollution Residuals, 71-80
6. Summary of Air Pollution Residuals by Consumption Sector, 71-77
7. General Summary of Solid Waste Residuals, 71-85
8. Periodic Trends in Residual Production, 3 Year Intervals, 71-85
9. Examples of Subsector Output, 1977
10. Selected Pollutant Producing Sectors by Residual
11. Selected Pollutant Producing Sectors by Residual
12. Cost Analysis for Pulp Mills due to Air Residual Abatement
13. Cost Analysis for Leather Tanning due to Water Residual Abatement
14. Alternative Costs for Water Abatement, National Totals
15. Module Options List for Passenger Transportation Module
16. Summary of Passenger Transportation, 1980, Region 1
17. Summary of Freight Transportation, 1977, Nation
18. Detailed Residuals for Consumer Solid Waste, Region 8
19. Land Use Projections, Region 1
Note: The scenarios discussed in Section III do not correspond to the data
of this section.
-------
NATIONAL SUMMARY: fRCGRA* VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS
.SCENARIO DESCRIPTION- SCENARIO 1, BASE CASF
AIR STANOARCS DELAYED TO lS77t WATER STANDARDS APPLIED IN 1S7T
INCCRUM CESCRIPTICN SCEf.«RIO I EASE CASE - ALKCN PEOIW GROWTH
YEARS AVAILABLE FHCJ- INFCRUK . ._ _ . . ___ _
INITIAL YE4R l«)7l
FINH VKR 1985
YEARS REOUESTfC =OR «^UALIZED CHANGE PROJTC'ICNSt l«71 197* X'77 1«80 1S83 l«65
IN ACCORDANCE WITH TfE CPT'CSS ChCSEN ThE PUiPUT WILL INCIUPEJ
RES1CUAL CATEGOFIES AKC COXFCSENTS
EPA PEGICN AND MTICNAL CAT/
RESIDUAL AMOUNT* FOR THE BASE YEAR AND \LL INCREMENTAL YEARS
RESICUALS fCJlJI>E_fOLLrwlNG REPORTING C^TEGCRlEl
AIR
WATER
» LAND , „. . .- -.
IK USE
PESTICIDE
r RADIATION .
THE NUMBER CF SCENARIOS RECUESTEC IS 1
Figure T
-------
NATIONAL SLMHARV: ECCKCMt PKCJECTICNS
CALENDAR YEAR
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1985
•POPULATION (MILLIONS)
•LABC" FCRCE (CILLIONS)
*HOUSEt-CLDS (MILl ICNSt
NUMBER fF JC"
-------
CALENDAR YEAR
6CONC"IC
POPULATICN (MLLICNS)
tARHR FORCE MILLIONS)
HOUSEKLPS (MILLICNS)
NUMPER C<= JOBS (MILLICNS)
MANLFACTLRING JOBS .
NCN-M«NUCACTURING JOBS
UNfMFLOMENT RATE(%)
CNP PEP C'PITM!)
OISP INCCME PFR r*PITA(t)
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS* )
_ GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE TCTAUBIJ
GOV'T EXPENDITURE DEFENSE(BI)
GOV«T EXPENDITURE N:N-CEPENSE/FEC'ILES)
PIPE (TON MILES)
PASJC\CER MILES TRAVELED
AUTCMCI3ILE (PASS MILES)
AIP (PASS MILES)
__ PL! (PASS MIL^S)
fAfi- THONSIT (PASS MILES)
PAR (°ASS MIES)
ALTC iEATE^ENT COST(Ml)
NCN-RECURRING(MI)
SPACE ^EAT!NG
HEAT CEMAMH (TRILLICNS CF 6TUS)
ui GROSS FU=L REQUIREMENTS
CCAL (TCNS)
DISTILLATE CIL (EELS)
PESICUAL OIL (BBLS) ..
NATURAL GAS (MILLICNS OF CU FT)
MAX * ABATEMENT FCR SCENARIC
SULFUR OXIDES (*)
PAOTICULATE MATTER (I)
CORSESPONOING ABATEMENT CCST(BJ)
CONSUMER WASTE ~"
DISPOSABLE hASTE (TCNS)
_ .. AVG DISPOSAL COST INC INERATCR1 t/l.CN)
AVC CISPCSAL COST L ANOF ILK I/TCN »
AVG DISPOSAL CTST CTFEP(*/TCNt
207.05
86.93
64.37
85.71
18.41
67.31
5.93
9C19.6S
2679.00
66.72
230.12
67.65
24.04
136 42
660.72
1676.35
103 37
684.27
818.34
70.38
2287321.00
437199.56
757453.31
617075 .62
3125 48
47JZ69 25
. - 224Z102.00
1895764.00
137697.25
134494 .87
30 IG9.03
43S58.75
O.C
0.0
0.0
62.22
86676.25
4756648.00
._ 24C7241.00
35255.69
38.67
49.50
0.05
165922224.
16.16
6.43
9.95
235.70
126.59
84.21
123.62
- 25.75
S7.67
5.62
7*37.59
4453. CO
158. S5
- 353.29
78. 97
45.38
228.95
1214.64
3232.22
15:. 67
1341.76
1613.71
123.08
4263C27.CO
996209.94
13Ci677.CC
1095'120.CO
27223.50
83E396.62
3196133. CO
2692381.00
1EC449.6S
208136.81
46561.66
tttOb.'lt
0.0
C.O
0.0
124.32
13C450.37
726C189.CC
3644C52.CC
S3C64.U
38.67
49.50
0.08
253616240.
21.36
8.68
13.19
0.93
2.72
1.94
2.65
-. - 2.43 -
2.71
-0.28
*t"
3.70
6.40
- 3.11
1.11
4.64
3. tt
4.45
4.80
2.67 -
4.93
4.97
4.07
4.55 -.
6.06
3.97
4. IB
16.72
4.18
2.56 -— - _-
2.54
1.95
3. 17
3.45
3.C1
0.0
0.0
O.C
3. CO
2.97
3. C7
3.01
2,94
0,0
0.0
2.98
3.C8
_ - 2.01
2.17
2.C3
Figure 3
-------
fUTtONAUSUHWARVl AIR. -RESIDUALS FRCP ALL SCURCES
, . . .
*
— •— "
_»ll RFCtntlAIC (N YENS EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE NOTED - —
^CLASS CF RESIDUAL
'
SEVERITY LEVEL
HUMAN HEALTH
ECOLfTpICAL.
SOCIC-ECONOMIC
PARTKLL4TES
ARSENIC
ASBESTCS
BERYLI IUM
CAOMIU-
CMRCfUM
FlUOFINE
LEAC
SELENIUM
£ VANACIUM
ZFNC
SULFUR OXIDES
_MTRCGEIJ OXIDES
"MVDROCAOBCNS
CARBCN MONOXIDE
OTHER G\JES AND PISTS
MFRCU^Y
_J6C010«1Y RESICUALS - -
* NOTES-'NET RESIOUAlS •
k ALL VALUES ARE_
GROSS
100.00
100,00
100.00
114438896.
109469.
1790?.
1084.
158633.
SJO^T,
1098839.
320148.
87?A.
23534.
2398278.
52551664.
I695a<;i7.
25996256.
110283136.
27«9.
2769.
NET*
53.22
*9.65
48.85
20247216.
8872.
5**}-
145.
2992.
12921.
147818.
236154.
907.
16544.
118015.
29960656.
16953392.
25245472.
102118624.
4CC.
400.
. 18825264. C - - -
GRCSS
138.08
142. C*
142.03
190553792.
159942.
3 1 e 5 5
1976.
232435.
1471C5.
1859958.
187CC6.
15567.
46864.
3765728.
79355568.
23082192.
23319824.
55671984.
57£7.
5767.
24790032.0
NET*
40.04
-35.87-
35.87
7208236.
6822.
316.
33.
2328.
2150.
1239C7.
42656.
. , 2Ct.
354.
37683.
22454176.
22840560.
18264C64.
26524320.
e«4.
644.
-
mf
-ANNUAL I ZED
1 CHANGE
IN GRCSS
2.7
3.0
3.0
4.3
3.2
- - 4.8
5.1
3.2
4.9
4.5
-4.4
. - ._ _4.9
5.9
3.8
3.5
- - 2.6
-0.9
-5.5
6.3
6.3
„
AMfclCALlZEO
t CMA.K6E
Ik NET
-2.3
. .„ .-2.5
-2.5
-•.2
-2.2
. --4.4
-2.1
- •" ' 1 J *^
-1.5
-13.3
_?!-<,
-27.4
-9.1
-2.*
2.5
-2.7
-1C. 6
_ 4.1
4.1
—2,1 -
GROSS RESICUALS LESS CAPTURED RESICUALS
SIGNIFICANT 10 NC MORF THAN SIX PLACES - - -
RESIDUAL CATEGORY TOTALS INCLUDE ALL NAKED COMPONENTS
Figure 4
-------
NATIONAL-SUNHAP.YI WATER
RESIDUALS FROM ALL SCURCES
CALENCAR YEAR
"CLASS rp RESIDUAL
SEVERITY LEVEL
HUMAN KEALTH
ECCLCGICAL
r" SOCIC-ECCNOMICT
BIOLOGKAL OXYGEN CEMANC
| CHE^IC/L OXYGEN OEfANO
JUSPFNOEO srnos
PHENUS
CISSCLVEC SOLIDS
COPPtf
CYANIDE
FEPRIC SULFATE
FLUOPINE
LEAD
MEFCUPY
ZINC
NUTRIENTS
NITR/TES
PHOSPHATES
AC IDS
BASES
, OIL AND GREASES
SURFACTANTS
«i ^
WASTF VATER
UN MLLICNS OF GALLONS)
PPCCESS VATER
THCPMAL LOADING
SECONC/RY RESICUALS
* N1TES- NET RESIOLALS • GROSS
ALL RESICUALS
~~ " GRCSS
ICO. 00
100.00
ICO. 00
15934592.
20247Efl8.
44812544.
34240.
33572O2.
526451.
3736.
17516.
997067.
1763.
1904.
448.
6660.
439S18.
42*44.
_397474.
1940639.
350319.
195358.
390C70.
22906512.
22906512.
2352.
IN TONS EXCEPT
NET*
61.72
62.82
22.57
9225248.
J.31C6818.
98<>04I4.
14645.
25256272.
312564.
979.
3340.
225537.
329039.
1411.
381.
4.
2106.
57390.
40884.
16SO&.
"974810.
1C6125.
118244.
334930.
228C1984.
22EC1984.
1948.
2997914. CC
RESICUALS LESS CAFTUREC RESIDUALS
VWCRE OTHERWISE NOTED
GRCSS
129.28
121.02
152.14
20546240.
-25297728.
68318240.
5C461.
47232960.
983549.
6956.
316S8.
657614.
902508.
2379.
4117-
617.
12394.
761560.
62748.
„ . _ 698612. .
2209862.
529668.
422251.
30791568.
4792.
3830463
NET*
9.70
32.55
5.S6
2573C68.
S251766.
2529359.
151.
23795904.
100274.
466.
277.
. _ 656.
930.
749.
41.
0.
12C5.
24C6.
393.
_ _ _ 2012.
T6JIJV,
187.
5829.
284853.
20780624.
20780624. __
3968.
.00
ANNUAL! ZED
1 CHANCE
IN GPOSS
2.9
2.5
4.8
2.9
4.8
- 4.4
3.9
7.2
7.1
6.8
12.6
-1.1
3.4
fl.q
3.6
7.1
6.3
4.4
. 6.5
1.5
4.7
7. a
0.9
3.3
8.2
ANNUALI2EO —
« CHANGE
IN NET
-18.6
-7.0 -
-13.7
-13.2
-3.8—
-14.1
-39.8 -
-0.7
- -11.9
-7.4
-24.2
__ . -47.7 -
-47.9
-6.8
.-21.9
-27.5
-6.0
-29.7
-40.3
-20. • _
-2.7
-50.6
-28.4
-1.8
-1.0
8.2
2.8
ALL VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT TO NC MORE THAN SIX PLACES
PSSICUAL CATEGCRY TOTALS IKLUDE ALL NAPEO COMPONENTS
Figure 5
-------
NATIONAL SLMMARYJ AIR
RESIDUALS BY SOURCt
CALENDAR YEAR
CLASS CF RESICUAL
•****TRANSPORTATICN
PARTICLLATES
LEAD
SULFUR OXIDES
NITROGEN OXIDES
HYDROURBCNS
CARBON MCNOXIDE
-seccsjjm RESICUALS
«****SPACE J-FAT
SEVERITY LEVEL
HUMAN HEALTH
ECOLOGICAL
SOCIC-ECCNCMIC
PARTICULATES-
SULFUR OXIDES
MTPOCEN OXIDES
HYD«OC««NS
CARBON MCNOXIOE
•SECONDARY RESIDUALS «
* NOTES: NET RESIDLALS »
ALL VALLF.S ARf
__ . ALL RESIDUALS IN TCNJ. EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE NOTED
GROSS
890739.
226960.
633467.
10039266.
136217<7.
89383856.
100.00
100.00
ICC. 00
- — - 3341.
18453.
_.. _ 7914.
CIO.
810.
GRCSS RESICUALS LESS CAPTURED
SIGNIFICANT 1C NC MORE ffM SIX
NET*
890739.
27696C.
623467.
100A9266.
136H797.
8>JH3856,
0.0
77 .1*
68.95
68.95
1687.
7897.
_ 7914.-
61C.
810.
c.o
RESICUALS
PLACES
ANNUALIZEO
GRCSS
1015612.
152187.
889671.
11087446.
7178371.
51584224.
119.84
119.84
3999.
22113.
. _. 9490. --
730.
9<5.
— „
NET*
1015612.
152187.
889E71.
11087446.
7178371.
51584224.
0.0 - -
86.46
82.64
82.64
2020.
9463.
94SC.
730.
965.
0.0- -
1 CHANGE
IN GROSS
2.2
-6.4
5.8
1,7
-10. 1
-a. 8
3.1
3.1
3.C
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
_
ASNUALI2EO
» CHANGE
Ik NET
2.2
-6.4
5.8
-.1.7
-10.1
0.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
-C.C - -
RESICUAL CATEGORY TOTALS INCLUDE ALL NAMED COMPONENTS
Figure 6
-------
NATIONAL S
LAM)
RESIDUALS EV SOURCE
CALENDAR YEAR
CLASS CP RESIDUAL
ALL RESICUALS IK
1971
CROSS
TCNS EXCEPT kHfcRE OTHERWISE fcCTEO
1985
NET*
GRCSS
NfT»
ANNUALIZED— ANNUALI2EO-
1 CHANCE 1 CHANG?
IN CROSS IK KET
•••••IMHISTRIAL C ELECTRICAL ENERGY
__SEVERm LEVEI 100.00
__100.00 140.33 l40.33--__._ 2.4 -2.*—
COMELSTIELE SOLID WASTE
FOOD rIASTE
LIVESTOCK WASTE
PA PEP
PLASTICS
TEXTILES
WOOD
NON-CGKBLSTIBLE SOLID WASTE
COPPER
FFRBCUS METALS
. CLASS .
NON-FEPROUS METALS, PISC.
SLAG
MINING WASTE
MINE OVERBURDEN
NINE T/ILINSS
SECOND/RY RESICUALS
•****CCN«LM£R WASTE
SEVERITY LEVEL «.
*s '
COHBLSTIBLt SCLID KASTE
GARDEN WASTE
3S7396992.
825445.
295762176.
_ 5268209.
395601.
667944.
61588960.
26337936.
14267.
327406.
374677. -
247.
24744336.
3316194820.
2672022270.
199992048
100.00
129029296.
25156304.
16415470,
825445.
295762176.
52682C9.
395601.
667944.
615E896C.
26337936.
- . 4C2C3.
14267.
327406.
374677.
247.
24744336.
3316U4820.
2672022270.
644172544.-
•
100.00
129029296.
25156304.
1641547C.
1386713.
411868928.
1C2837S8.
907545.
1309842.
_ 105254C48.
38932624.
26329.
638712.
_ — _ 7946CO.
<73.
35774800.
5613989690.
4666712060.
- 947278848.
472596224
152.85
196994016.
38469936.
2S198C80.
836330496.
1386713.
411868926.
10283758. _
907545.
1309842.
- 105254C4E.
38932624.
26229.
638712.
794600.
473.
35774800.
5613989E9C.
466671206C.
947278848. -
152..85
14699401^.
38469936.
25198CEO.
2.4
3.8
2.4
4.9
6.1
4.9
— 3.9
2.8
4.5
4.9
5.5
4.8
2.7
3.8
4.1
2.8
3,1-
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.4
3.8
2.4
6.1
4.9
2.8
« >
4.5
4.9
- 5.5
4.8
2.7
3.8
4.1
2.8
6.3
3,1
3.1
3.1
3.1
• NOTES NET RESICUALS • CROSS RESICUALS LESS RECYCLED RESIDUALS
ALL VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT 1C NC PORE Tf-AN SIX PLACES
PESICUAL CATEGCRY. TCT/LS IKLUCE ALL NAPEO CONPCNENTS
Figure 7
-------
NATIONAL SUPMARYi ANNUAL!ZED CHANG! BY PERIOD
RESICUOLS
INCLSTRIAL C ELECTRIi
PARTICULATES
SULFUR CXIDES
NITROGEN OXIDES
HYDROCARBONS
CARBCN PCNOXIDE
OTHER cases AND MISTS
SECCNCARY RESICUALS
^TRANSPORTATION
PARTICULATES
SULFUR OXIDES
MTPOCEN CXICES
HYDROCARBONS
CARBON
_ SECONDARY RESIDUALS
SPACE HEAT
PARTICULATES
.... — SUL.FU* OXIQ.ES .
NITROGEN OXICES"
HYDROCARBCNS
CARBCN MQNOXICE
SECCNDAPY RESICUALS
*ATER_
•LAND
INDUSTRIAL C ELECTRICAL
BIOLOGICAL OXYGEN DEMAND
- C(-|MKAL OXYGEN DEMAND
SUSPENDED SCUCS
DISSOLVED SOLIDS
NUTRIENTS .
AGIOS
BASES
_OIL ANC GREASES
SURFACTANTS
-V, WASTE WATER
__ •> THERMH LCADING
SECCNDARY RESIDUALS
IMCLSTRm £ ELECTPK
CCMPLSTI8LE SOLID kiASTE
._ SCN-CCMELSTIBLE SCL
MINING VASTE
SECONDARY RESIDUALS
_CCMliMER WASTE
COMBUSTIBLE SCUD kASTE
NON-Cr^BUSTIBLE SOL
SECCSPAPY RESICUALS
/'• • - •
___ 1971- 197*
CROSS NET
YNERGV" "
_ _
TS
- _
—
_
ENERGY
EMAND
AND
ENERGY
ASTE
10 WASTE
ASTE
ID WASTE
.55
.68
.90
.45
.58
.14
2
9.94
6.42
3.60
-8.81
-7.34
__ 0
3.10
3.12
3.13
3.09
- 3.03
0
3.27
_ , 3.00
7.02
4.99
8.48
2.92
4.95
5.56
0.82
4.17
8.06
2
-
2.32
7.20
5.23
12
3.36
3.42
0
- -
-9.94
-0.32
6.60
4.72
-? .62
'i.83
.45
3.94
6.42
3.60
-8.81
-7.34
.0
3.10
3.12
3.13
3.09
3.03
.0
-
-9.66
-3.50
-9.94
-0.04
-6.16
-4.91
-16.27
-15.28
-2.09
1.28
8.06
.28
2.32
7.20
5.23
.<4
3.36
3.42
.0
1974- 1977
GSOSS NET
-
;.33
4.29
6.<>
s.ci
4.69
7.25
3
C.51
£.24
-0.23
-11.43
-10.15
0
2.98
3. CO
3.01
2.97
2.90
0
3.31
2.95
4.29
3.95
. 5.55
1.47
5.56
2.08
0.87
3.47
s.84
3
3.45
3.66
5.37
12
3.59
3.44
0
_ .
-27.53
-12.63
5.72
0.57
-30. 15
3.36
.20
0.51
5.24
-0.23
-11.43
-10.15
.0
2.98
3.CC
3.01
2.97
2.90
.C
-25.54
-7.47
-25.86
-3.56
-57.59
-5.51
-86.11
-57.57
-2.99
-6.21
8.84
.45
3.45
3.66
5.37
.35
3.59
3.64
.C
- PNN'JALIltU ft
IS77- 1980
G*»OSS KET
-
1.68
2.16
4.93
3.51
3.40
5.52
2.
-1.79
4.55
-1.40
-12.85
-17.28
0.
2.93
2.95 ..
2.96
2.92
2.85
0.
2.02
1.56
3.12
2.67
_ 4.37
0.00
5.62
- 3.82 —
0.97
2.39
7.79
2.
?.57
1.75 .
1. 76
2.
3.49
J.53
0.
--
3.43
2.29
4.92
2.69
4.29
5.10
31
-1.79
4.55
-1.40
-12.85
-12.28
0
2.93
.2.95
2.96
2.92
2.85
0
-
-2.88
—0.26
-4.93
1.69
-12.72
2.57
3.80
_ 2.01
-0.25
2.08
7.79
55
2.57
1.75
3.76
78
3.49
3.53
C
1980- 1983
GPOSS NET
--
1.97
0.86
2.84
1.7t
1.99
3.39
1.
-2.24
3.53
-0.67
-13.10
-14.68
0.
3.07
3.07
3.07
3.07
3.07
0.
—
1.40
1.38
1.92
1.24
3.49
-i.ee
2.40
-0.47
1.02
1.52
7. 14
1.
1.75
_ 0.18
1.83
I.
2.35
2.38
_ 0.
1.94
C.90
2.82
0.99
2.49
2.94
33
-2.24
3.53
-0.67
-13.10
-14.68
0
3.07
_ 3.07
3.C7
3.C7
3.07
0
-
-4.00
—0.43
-5.56
C.Z4
-32.27
C.66
2.33
C.28
-0.25
1.C7
7. 16
81
1.75
- 0.18
1.83
31
2.35
2.38
0
1983- 1985
GROSS NET
2.28
l.«6
2.f7
1.88
- 2. l£
3.53
-0.01
3.60
1.44
-8.31
-10. 6C
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
-
1.45
1.40
2.15
1.4t
3.60
-1.47
2.77
- 0.11
l.CO
1.67
5.51
1.92
_0.87
2.61
2.29
2.31
2.
1.
2.
1.
2.
3.
1.57
-0.
3.
1.
-8.
-10.
0.0
2.
_ 2.
2.
2.
2.
0.0
-
I.
1.
1.
C.
2.
C.
2.
0.
1.
1.
5.
1.97
1.
_ - 0.
2.
1.62
2.
2.
C.O
33
80
ES
10
tt
03
Cl
60
4*
31
60
-
96
96
96
96
96
15
G4
00
73
70
SI
7t
43 *i --
CO
23
51
92
87
61
29
31
Fieure 3
-------
INFOPUM SECTOR DISAGGRcGATiCN
INTO SUBSECTCPS
33
YEAR 1977
SECTOR
NUMBER
31
SECTCP N/ME
SLBSSCTOP NAME
CCTTCN KNITTING
-.ECTOR OUTPUT(M$) FINAL CCN£Uf PTI OM f»)
SUBSECTOP OUTPUKMLLIONS)
.24K*C4
DOLLARS
30
31
30
31
55
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
8
9
1C
""u
~ 1
34
3 5
36
PL'LF MLLS
NEW MFC PAPER/PULP MILLS
CLD MFC PAPEK/PULP PILLS
PAPER 4NO PAPEPSCARD PILLS
1775.81
0.0
NFG PAPcF/FAPER PILLS
CLD MrG PAPER/PAPER VILLS
INCLbT^IAL CHEMICALS
CI-LCFINE
MTPIC 4CID
CFGAMC Ci-E^ICALS
IN JK C2
.572F+01
.llfaE+02
.1151 +01
.S20E-)-00
CCSS .7b2E+01
CCES< .43CFH01
CELL .129L+02
LL .335E-r01
E.NITE .468F + 00
ILF .212E+00
MTE .468E+00
A973.38
.214E+01
DOLLARS
OOLLAPS
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
TONS
TONS
TCNS
TONS
TONS
TONS
TONS
TCNS
TCNS
TCNS
TONS
TCNS
TONS
TONS
TONS
TONS
TCNS
TONS
£4.23
216.63
492 .86
PAINTS
Figure 9
4448.27
40.81
-------
POLLUTANT PBOUCISG SICTOBS BI BESIDOAL - TEAS
PAGE 54
-8«3ID3At~CAfEOOBir
BKSIDUAL COMPONENT
SOSPEHUPD SOLIDS —
—sscrc*-
30ESICTOB
GBOSS
CAPTOBBD
-TONS OP 8B3IDOAL3 — BEDIOP—
NET RECYCLED OHRECYCLED SECONDABY PRI1 SEC
FOODS ------ ~
CINNSD fBDIIS 6 VEGETABLES
.2UU862+05 .16979E+OC.
--- GBAtl tilt PBODOCTS
20989. 15333.
SU64E
C8R2 SUG AS ~
75074.
5655.3
.0
.0
.8729SE+06 .6
-------
POILUTAK ?aooo:uo sictoss BJ Bssioott - TEAS ii8>
PAGE 210
— BBSIDUAL-CATECOBl SBCtOS — — — — — — -—
BEilDUAL CCBEOHSNT SOtiiCIOi GBOSS CAPTUBED
PABTIrUtATHS " 8LECIBIC OTltlTIES
VANADIUM llECrilCITY 81 OIL
14026. 10009.
ZtJC ' 5TEBI - - - - -
.166128*07 .164468*07
ZINC IHDUSH1AL CE8MICALS
•- - • • •• ••• • .20413E<06 .202092*06
2IHC ZINC
. 19767B«07 .19570E«07
30LP0B OXIDES ' StEC 18 1C " Oil LITIES
ElflC. £1 HI SULFUR OIL
.2<«609B«07 . 17226E«07
INODSIBtAL CBEHICALS
SOtFUBtC ACID
.411B1E«Oa .39946E*08
' 3IEBI
.7305«E*06 .511368*06
STZEi
1 ~ S8IBI1E CCKING STEEL HrO— '
17460. .0
COAL •BIIING
" - IkOtSlBI&L COHBOSTIOB: COAL - ""
.71870E*07 . 10062E«07
aEAtias ill
III}t51llAL CCHBDSTIOB* OIL
.39582E»07 .55ai5E»06
BLEC1S1C 01ILITIES
888.24 .0
EL8CI3IC 01ILITIES
(1IC. (1 LOU SULPOB C(it •- —
. jmm*c7 .0
ELE:IHC OHLITIES
.144aOL»C8 .10136E*08
ELECUIC 01ILITIES
MtC. 81 LO SOL BCSSOIST Olt " "
.49060E*06 .0
MATOSAl GAS
1IJIS181AL COMBUSTION1 GAS
33494. .0
PUL? mis
• • • - - •- ,15179E»06 •.1062SE*06
G ASCU JS
.121708*07 .85187E*06
COtftJ — . . -
CCtPSa SHEL1IRG
.3C898E*06 .21636E*06
— — -TOSS OP
NET
16.832
16626.
-2041.5
19778.
.73828E+06
.123S4E*07
,21916E*06
17460.
.618088*07
,3»0»1E*07
888. 2«
.3D119E»07
.434<»OE*07
.49060B*06
38494.
45536. -
.36509E+06
92614.
BBS I DUALS
RECICLED
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
OHBECTCLED
11026.
.16612E*07
'" " .20413E»06
.19767B*07
.24609E*07
.41181E*08
.730S«P*06
17460
.718708*07
.39S82E*07
888.24
.34119B*07
.14480E*08
.09060E*06
38494.
. 15179E»06-
.12170E»07
,30898E*06
SECOHDABT
14009.
.16446E»07
,39139E*07
. 17226E»07
.39946E*08
.51138E»06
.0
.452788*07
.20937E*07
.0
.0
.456122*08
.0
0
-.478138*06
.383348*07
.97363E*06
pnin
AIB
AIB
ATB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIE
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
AIB
mn~— • —
SEC
LARD
LAID
LA»D
LAID
LARD
LAND
LAND
LAND
LAND
LARD
LAND
i
\
LAND
Pigure 11
-------
CCS
ANALYSIS
SIC 2611 PULP MILLS
NEUTRAL SULIITE SEN ICHEMKAL
PiGE 4
PA ILITIES (1-372 )
SIZE OF PLANTS
TO\S/DAY
C-300
301-450
451-OVER
PLANTS TOTAL CAPACITY
TONJ/OAY
33 5638.
— 7 — -2625.
4 3012.
AVE. CAPACITY
TONS/DAY
170.8
375.0
753.0
11215
CAPITAL COST
PER PLANT
-~ PLANT
(THOU II •
139.3
185.4
238.9
TCTAL C£M
-COST (M,t)
4 6
1.3
1.0
6.9
ANNUfL COST
PEP PLANT
(THCU *l —
25i.9
341.9
442.1
TCTAL ANNUAL
COST
-------
TABLE II CCST ^ALY LEAThER TANNING
1977 GUICELINES fE*R 1981
SIZE DISTRIBUTION J.ATER USE
PAGE 2C5
FULL TREATMENT (ALT 1 )
PRETREATPENT (ALT 2)
CHEAPEST ALTERNATIVE
SIZE OF PLANTi
(NDS. OF EMPLOYEES)
1 TJ 49
50 T 3 99
10J TO 249
250 TO 4<;s
500 TC 999
KCO TC 2499
2500 AND OVER
TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT
PLANTS
433
78
67
22
1
1
C
ANN. COST
PER PLANT
(THOU $)
11.2
45.6
86.2
154.0
224.7
553.5
0.0
TOTAL ANN.
CCST (H.t)
4 9
3 6
5.8
3.4
0.3
0.6
0.0
TOTAL COST
1C.9
ANN. COST
PER PLANT
(THOU U
20.1
62.6
166.2
320 5
737.2
1379.2
0.0
TOTAL ANN.
CCST (M,t)
6 7
6.4
11.1
7.1
0.7
1.4
0.0
TCTAL COST
ANN. CCST
PER PLANT
(THCU »)
11 2
45.6
66.2
154.0
324.7
J53.5
0.0
TCTAL ANN
CCST (li,l
4 9
3.6
5.8
3.4
0.3
0.6
0.0
tern COST
13.5
ALT
63.2
22.7
63.2
Figure 13
-------
TABLE I COST ANALYSIS SIC **** NATICMA'. TCTAL5
1977 GUCELINPS
298
SIZE OF PLAN
OF
I TO 49
50 TO 9Q
100 TC 249
250 TO 4S«
500 TO 9°9
ICCO TC 2i = 9
2500 AND OVPR
PLANTS
EfPLCYFTS
( THQbSANC S)
516137
246425
32393-5
1436«4
97529
16934
1321
12124.9
I684r.8
20C44.8
22SC.G 3
34CSf C
13269 5
11221 1
EfPLC'EES
P£0 PLANT
>4
r>6
63
1<.0
3 .C.
71*
85 6.
WATER USE
GD PER PLANT
0.002
0 006
0.023
0.066
C. 130
0.403
7.186
134555?
CCST PER PL/NT
MTERSATIVE 1 (T'iCLS. DCLLA"S)
1 TO 49
50 TT 99
ICC TO 249
250 T 5 499
sec To 9=9
1000 TO 2459
2500 &NC OVER
CAPITAL
COST
5.8
5.1
I 6
12 ?
27. C
S4.2
30*6.4
ANM.ALI, co
_ CAPIT0L
CCST
0.6
0.5
0 8
1.4
3.8
9.6
310 3
CCM CCST
C.E
C 6
C 9
1 6
2.8
12.7
452 0
TOTAL
ANNUAL
COST
1 4
1.1
1.7
3.0
6.6
22.3
762.3
TCTJL
CAPITil
IMVES-TVENT ( * , » )
3012.3
125".9
2469 5
1905.5
3405.7
1595.3
4054.7
17ES7 1
COST PER PLANT
1 T^ 49
50 ~r 9-
1CO TT 249
250 TC 499
SCO TO 9cc
1000 TO 249°
2500 ANC
VE*
CAPITAL
COST
C.3
C.5
C.7
1.0
C.7
1.9
15.6
ANNUALIZED
CAPITAL
CCST
C 0
0.0
0.1
0 1
0 1
0.2
1.6
ALTERNATIVE 2 < MUS. DOLLARS)
Ctf COST USER
CHiPGES
C C
C.I
O.I
C.2
0 2
C 7
8.4
0.1
0 3
0 5
1.1
1.4
3.5
23 3
TOTAL
ANN'/AL
0.1
0 4
0.7
1.4
1.6
4.4
33.3
TCTAL
13C 7
120.9
211 e
140.2
67.5
32.7
20 8
724.6
Figure 14
-------
PASSENGER TP4NS"ORTAT ION "PO IL = PAGF
SCFNA»tO 1 - BASF CASE (STABrS DELAYED TO 1977) ...,
rpT'ONS IN EeceCT
FIRST Y=AR TO pRorFss i9ri
LAST Y = A8 TO PROCESS 1995
BAS= Y=A!1 l<571
]'iC'fu-'r 3
AUTO ABATEMENT STRATfCY 13 0
AUT0 A0
>1PC USFn IN i UTO
COST IS 13 58 MPG
TIMF RJNCTITN CODE is o
1977
* AUTfl SIZF MIX (1985) (PROPORTIONS)
FCONCKY rr->f>tn «T/
0.1283 0.2250 0.6A70
* AUT0 VILAGF MIX (MPG)
TOMPACT
TJTCA 21.00 16 CO
l^cp 25.00 21 00
* HIGHWAY SP=EO IS SET fi
1C 00
18.00
PRINTING PpTIfNS
GCCC°A?H'C AREAS Ti1 'F PRINTED (PESIDUALS PfPORT)
XXXXXX-EPA PEGU US- *T|oN
G = rGRAPHIC AREAS TO 3F PRUrEC ( « ^AT^M^H-)
NO COST REPORT WILL FF PRINTFD
Figure 15
-------
PTP1R1
PY =
FCC'
Y = l» 1980
UNITS '^SIDU-LS (TIN*)
P*SSE>.GER-MHES IMJllICNS)
4UTC
56860.1445
BUS
f715.2695 PAPIO
2459 9556 PArl
2459 9156
*
n
r
S
I
0
u
L
S
4t
»»-
HYnPHCAPBONS
AUTT 163466.250
-
BUS 751.6910
'ASIC - o.o
RAIL 0.0
INTCPCITY t
CARBf^ ITNOXIPE
1196596.00
4566 -.062
0.0
0.0
MTS"GEU OX'DES
95120.4375
7549.5977
0.0
C.O
PASS-NGfB M'LCS AUTO 61693.7933 AIR
„
p
r
S
I "
U
A
L
S
.' » «
*
=
S
T
L.
A
L
S
f
HvrPocARBON';
tLTQ 54113 3672
MR - 130.1144
RL.S 108.7323
-
PA'L 1426.0920
TT41.S-
^iS<-, = \GE? MILCS 4U"
fli IL
HYOPOfA^BONS
' UTn 217579.500
3LS - - - 860 4241
A!"} 131.1144
R'P'O 0.0
r-I L 1426 0920
CAPBCN ^CNrXIDE
468107. 6?5
2342 0598
663 4243
19S6 5293
1 18553.812
:i6S.C796
CAPBOM MONOXIDE
1666103.00
5249.8320
2342.0598
0 0
1996.5293
NITjjpl-N rxlOFS
89935 5625
1040.9153
1092.0503
2139.2947
•5JS 1013-3
NITPOG'S OXIDES
185056.062
8641 6434
1040.9153
0.0
2139.2947
SULFUR TIOXIDE
9025.4453
555.5984
0 0
0.0
7391.2344
SUL-U* DIOXIDE
4838 2930
260.2288
80.3674
1854.0767
.511, AIR
SULFUr D'OXIOE
3863.7383
635.9653
260.2288
0.0
1854.0767
I FAD ....
'
3101 .7502
-
0 0
0 0
0.0
E S 1418
LJftO ...
—
1454.7134
- ™ o.o ~
0-:0
O.o
7091.2344 PAPIO
LEAR ....
4556.4609
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
PAPTICULATES AL
12749.6758
~ - ~
261 4i80
0 0
0.0
.2476 °Ml
PAPTICULATC<; AL
6631.8750
1040 9153
37.8199
869.7747
2459 9556
PAPTKULATC, A1
19331.5547
' " 299.2778
1040.9153
-
C.O
869.7747
n c HY o^ s
125543. S75
45 3645
0 0
0.0
7u9 122"
f^FHYoes
41560.0703
' ' " 45 0572
9 455 >
115 1542
-
CEHv-S
167103.875
~ 74 =195
65 057^
') 0
115 1542
Figure 16
-------
F3EIJHT THAHSPOBT»TION — BEPOBT FOB 1BE JAMOH FOB YEAB 1977
TON-IILEb (IN BILLIONS) TRUCKS a ai.M75.125 HAIL » 10071.68 37 MATES * 863516.137 AIB
PIPES = 660969.500
POLIJTAfT "VMOES (EMISSIONS D02 TO »EEljaT VE'lICLES IS TOHS)
11523 5898
(D
(2)
S1J25 HYOROC\HDONS CA830N 10NOIUJ SITBOCEN OXIDES SDL?LB DIOriDE LEAD PAbTICOLATES ALDEHYDES
TRUCKS 537790.937 327563. .00 5390132.00 391120.625
0.0 183337.687 U6690 0898
BAIL
130070.000 132036.C62 195119.U37 169105.375
0.0
79329.8750 10417.05«7
BATE1
352 0508 460 <729 5U4.6329 580 5374
0.0
783.3118 26 5699
Ala
134U3 3750 241995.£37 107550.937 26387 7500 0 0 107550 937 6721 9336
PIPE
0 0
O.C
0 0
0.0
0.0
0 0
0 0
IOTE:,
(1) rtmL -1YDHOCJUSCSS
Figure 17
-------
TONS CF RESIDUALS
FCOO WASTE
CARDEN WASTE
PAPER
PLASTICS
RISBER
LEATHER
TEXTILES
GLASS
FCRRCUS METALS
NCN-FERROUS "ETALS, MISC.
WCOO
SANOt STONE, SCIL
TOTAL
COST CF CISPCSAL (THCUSiNCS CF CCLL*fS)
LANDFILL
Ii CINEPATICN
CTt-EK
TOTAL
1971
365757.3
16C727.0
2659268.0
ER GENERATED RESIDUALS
9EGICN 8
19"'4 1977
4Ca732.4 453491.4
2CCJS4.1 224078.0
2953275. C 3297149.0
6S848.4 7^)332
19363
19363
£6060
20 65 4 >
2C9324
15103
7435
94666
2J3878
4166837
25SC9
953
10977
37740
6
.6
.5
.1
1
.6
6
.5
.6
.0
.6
2
9
.6
2)4
32.
21432
S54
22,1
It.
i7.
222735
U7
"2
-6
i9.
1C5C>6.
2816
464' C
3u5
11
1.9
44£
.0
)8.
I.
•7.
7.
lb«
6
6
6
t
6
2
4
3
0
6
0
5
0
4
<;
85363.
24006.
24038.
1067C3.
256069.
260154.
18726.
9219.
117374.
314776.
5191138.
35233
1300.
14957.
51491.
1
4
4
7
2
6
5
2
1
3
0
4
8
0
3
1980
505941.9
249994.7
3676495.0
95236.1
26785.
26785.
119045.
265708.
290244.
2C892.
10285.
2
2
1
3
0
4
5
130949.5
351183.
5791543.
39945.
1474
16946.
58366.
1
0
4
6
6
6
1983
536574.7
265130.8
3901212. C
101002.
26406.
264C6.
126252 .
303CC6.
307816
22157.
109CE
138878.
372445.
""6142192
46664
1722
1977:.
6816C.
2
9
<;
7
7
9
4
2
1
8
0
e
3
1
1
Figure 18
-------
I A N C
USE
PRC JECTIONS
REGION
CALENDAR YEAR
POPULATION(MILLIONS)
.HOUSEHOLD'S (MILLIONS)
GROSS NATIONAL PIODUCT(BS)
PERSOM1L CONSUiPTION EXP(B$)
G30SS PHIVATE DOMESTIC INV (B$)
.DJBA3LE GOODS (3$)
'JOS-DURABLE GOODS(B$)
SEBVICbS(D$)
1971
12.215
3.796
66.191
Hi. 031
9.506
22.911
31.735
Si. 120
1974
12.513
4.063
78.396
US. 567
12.488
'29.734
37.297
62.262
1977
12.847
(,.308
90.881
56.347
14.673
35.424
43.291
73.602
1980
13.224
4.561
102.431
64.670
16.216
39.851
48.865
85.105
1983
13.493
4.757
108.906
70.248
16.865
41.981
52.157
92.795
1985
13
4.
113.
73
17
43.
54,
671
f 84
6t3
923
,617
943
560
98.210
LAND Hit
ACRE S (MILLIONS)
T3TAL URBANISED
SESIDtNTIAL
SINGLE FAMILY
MULTIPLE FAMILY
TRANSPORTATION
STREET 6 MGHHM
i PARKING
RATLEOADS
AI
, RETAIL C BHOLESALE
OFFICE
INDUSTRIAL
PUBLIC AND S2NI-PUBLIC
OPE^l SPACE
OTHES FACILITIES
SEWUGS AST WASTE
R33AL ROADS
CROPLAND INDEX
2.1 13
0.676
C.591
0.084
0.639
0.423
0.127
0.042
C.042
0.084
C.027
0.057
127
296
127
159
2.308
0.042
0.330
0,286
0.701
0.512
0.090
0.731
0.499
0.137
0.045
0.050
0. 101
0.034
0.068
0. 166
0.311
0.138
0.173
0.043
0.398
0.292
2.4l'f
0.725
0.630
0.095
0.824
0.577
0.142
0.047
0.058
0.119
0.039
0.080
0.195
0.327
0.149
0.177
0.044
0.413
0.299
2.647
0.750
0.649
0.101
0 903
0.649
0.142
0.047
0.065
0.136
0.044
0.092
0.215
0.344
0.161
0.132
0.045
0.428
0.305
2.739
0.771
0.665
0.106
0 937
0 691
0.133
O.OJ4
0.069
0. 143
0.047
0.103
0 22a
0.360
0.173
0 136
0.3-6
0.450
0.309
2 B03
785
675
110
963
.723
,126
042
.072
156
049
106
234
j70
181
1d9
0.0«7
0.464
0.311
Figure 10
-------
SECTION V
ANTICIPATED WORK PLANS
THROUGH SPRING 75 (Phase III)
-------
SECTION V
PROPOSED SEAS DEVELOPMENT REVIEW STRUCTURE
The following information concerning the SEAS Phase III Development
Plan (May 74 - May 75) was developed under the National Commission on
Water Quality sponsorship to provide a definitive total development plan
as known in May 1974. Elements of this plan extracted here include the
expected technical management and review organization, a summary of major
new development components, and the detailed specifications for the new
components.
Phase III Organization Structure
The design and implementation of Phase III improvements to the SEAS
prototype system will require a cooperative effort among the responsible
government agencies and their prime contractors. Figure 2 presents the
overall organizational structure designed to facilitate this cooperation.
It depects a general flow from the raising of policy questions, to the
setting of design criteria in response to these questions, and finally
to the controlled implementation and documentation of system changes.
It is anticipated that a high-level inter-agency coordinating group
will develop the broad policy guidelines needed to a el system design
objectives. As a minimum, this body will be composed of representatives
from the Commission, EPA, CEQ, and the Office of Management and Budget
(OMB). Its chief responsibility will be to establish the policy
alternatives and questions which the Phase III system must address.
Design criteria and data for the Phase III system will be developed
by those agencies actively engaged in contributing to the SEAS project.
These agencies, as^identified in Section 2, will include EPA/WERC,
-------
INTERAGENCY
COORDINATING
GROUP
t EPA/WERC
• NCWQ
• OMB
• CEQ
i WRC
I
POLICY ALTERNATIVES GUIDANCE
1
EPA/WERC
• SEAS PROJECT OFFICER
• SEAS CONTRACTORS
1
NCWQ
i TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE
• SEAS CONTRACTORS
t STUDY CONTRACTORS
A
CEQ
• TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE
I
A
WRC
• TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE
i
NIH
• RFF TECHNICAL
REPRESENTATIVE
1
OTHERS
POSSIBLE OTHER
AGENCIES
DESIGN AND DATA INPUTS
SEAS CONTRACTORS
EPA/WERC CONTRACTORS
NCWQ CONTRACTORS
OTHER (AS APPROPRIATE)
DESIGN DECISIONS
DESIGN REVIEW BOARD
• EPA/WERC
• NCWQ
• RFF
• OTHERS (AS APPROPRIATE)
SYSTEM CHANCE DOCUMENTATION
SEAS DATA
CRITIQUES
QUALITY REVIEW BOARD
NAS
CEQ
EPA
OTHERS (AS APPROPRIATE)
EPA/WERC
SEAS PROJECT
STAFF
SEAS CONTRACTOR
SYSTEM
INTEGRATION
SERVICES
Figure 2 SEAS Phase III Organizational Structure
-------
the Commission, CEQ, WRC, NIH(RFF), and possible others. Their work
will be paced by regular design meetings attended by government techni-
cal representatives and contractor research analysts representing each
agency Such meetings have been held regularly at EPA/WERC for the
last 18 months. The presentation of progress reports and papers for dis-
cussion at these meetings contributed significantly to the completion
of all major milestones of the SEAS Prototype within schedule
A Design Review Board, similar to that employed for the SEAS Proto-
type development, will coordinate the introduction of design changes
and data into the SEAS system. The Board will be chaired by the
SEAS Project Officer from EPA/WERC. Other members will include, as
a minimun, technical representatives from the Commission and RFF.
Staff support to the Board will be provided by members of the EPA/WERC
SEAS project staff.
A system inxegration services contractor will assure that all Phase III
extensions comply with the design requirements and implementation
schedule for the total system. The services contractor will document
and monitor the incorporation of all SEAS module changes approved by
the Board. He will also be responsible for the reduction, conversion,
and entry of pertinent data from special studies undertaken by the
Commission. The services contractor will also design and implement
system-wide improvements under the direction of the Board. The services
project leader will be present at all Board meetings and will serve
as a key liaison between the Board and the SEAS research contractors.
-------
Board design decisions will be passed on to SEAS module researchers
working under contract to EPA/WERC, the Commission, and other agencies
Approved changes to the system will be made by these contractors in
keeping with the system criteria set forth by the services contractor
and approved by the Board. In return, the services contractor will
assure that all module researchers are provided with documentation and
updated programs on the current status of all proposed changes
An independent review board is planned to monitor and comment on the
quality of both the raw input data and the resulting forecasts generated
by SEAS. Potential members of this board would come from the National
Academy of Sciences (NAS), CEQ, WRC, and possibly other agencies.
Critiques from this body will be given to the Design Review Board
for analysis and corrective action.
Documentation System
A comprehensive set of documents is available on th c SEAS prototype
system. These documents were developed in accordance with the "Docu-
mentation Standards for the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS)", prepared as a technical memorandum early in the Phase II
effort. An overview of the documentation plan on which these standards
are based in presented in Figure 3.
The flow depicted in Figure 3 shows working papers and design documents
feeding the program implementation process and final documentation
being generated as end products. Objectives of the three types of
documents which are used to evolve module design criteria are as
follows:
-------
• Working Papers- The Working Paper is used by the module
research analyst to identify important technical issues and to
suggest the direction in which research should proceed. Its
main purpose is to elicit comment for discussion and resolution
of design problems and alternatives.
• Design Papers; The Design Paper is prepared by the research
analyst to describe the requirements for new or extended
capabilities to be introduced into the SEAS
System. Its chief objective is to provide that essential
information needed by the SEAS Design Review Board for evaluation
and by the module programming contractor for preparation of
a Program Design Specification.
• Program Design Specifications These documents are prepared
by the module programming contractor to specify the exact
design criteria to be followed by the programmer in implementing
a SEAS capability. A macro level flow chart and descriptions
ofpYocessing logxc, input specifications, and output requirements
are included in each program specification.
Three manuals, as shown in Figure 3, supply the information required
to operate and maintain the SEAS system- (1) a Users Manual,
(2) a Programmers Manual, and (3) a Data Specifications Manual.
Each manual represents a collection of separate documents covering
the programs and associated data files which comprise the SEAS system.
The Users Manual provides instructions on how to exercise each module,
describes the options available to the user, and interprets all program
error messages. The Programmers Manual supplies detailed specifications
-------
DESIGN
DOCUMENTATION
IMPLEMENTATION
PROCESS
FINAL
DOCUMENTATION
WORKING PAPERS
DESIGN PAPERS
PROGRAM
DESIGN
SPECS
PROGRAM
IMPLEMENTATION
AND VALIDATION
PROGRAMMERS
MANUAL
DATA
SPECS
MANUAL
Figure 3 SEAS Documentation Plan
-------
on proroRnine logic, program variablea, input requirements, and other
useful information for program maintenance or modification. The Data
Specifications Manual documents the record and field characteristics
of all data files in the SEAS system.
The run book is a compilation of SEAS output for the "base case"
scenario. Copies of the book, containing output from each module
for the years 1971 and 1985, are available in 8 1/2 by 11 format
from BPA,AVERC Original output for the base case scenario, covering
the intervening period in three-year increments, plus outputs from
other significant scenarios, are maintained on file at EPA/WERC.
Change Control
The procedure to be followed for the control of changes to the
SEAS system is presented in Figure 4 Proposed changes to the system
are submitted to the Design Review Board for review and disposition.
These changes can be documented in one of two forms. If a major
capability is being introduced, it will be described in a Design
Paper prepared by the research analyst. Minor modifications, however,
can be documented on a change request form In either case, justi-
fication of the proposed change is required, plus full documentation
of all data sources.
After a modification is approved by the Board, it will be imple-
mented and tested by the programming contractor for the affected
module. The system integration services contractor will then checkout
the module as part of an appropriately designed system test. The
results of this test will be passed back to the Design Review Board
for analysis prior to preparation of updated documentation. Once
-------
RESEARCH ANALYST
DESIGN REVIEW BOARD
MODULE PROGRAMMING
CONTRACTOR
SYSTEM INTEGRATION
SERVICES CONTRACTOR
EPA/WERC SEAS
PROJECT STAFF
SEAS USERS
PREPARE DESIGN
PAPER OR
CHANGE
REQUEST FORM
REW
* AS Rtt
i
X'REVIEW'V
ORK
IUIRED
k
S. DESIGN v^CHANGE NOT
^^^^ APPROVED
1
PROGRAM AND
TEST MODULE
1
r
CONDUCT
SYSTEM TEST
4
X»*EV
X.RESI
t
RESULTS NOT
APPROVED
lEWXv
JLTS I/
L
^
PREF
UPDt
DOCUME
1
DISTR
DOCU
RE VIS
1
P
3ARF INSTALL AND
\TED k TEST NEW
NTATION PROGRAMS
NIAMUN OR ROUTINES
r
BUTE
\/IENT •-.
IONS
• 1 '
PROGRAM MANUAL
UPDATES j UPDATES^ |
Figure 4. Phase III Change Procedures
-------
the results are approved by the Board, the services contractor
prepare the necessary documents, which will then be di.stiibuted to
SEAS users by the EPA/WERC project staff.
Responsibilities of the Design Review Board
The successful implementation of Phase III extensions will depend
in large measure on the effectiveness of the Design Review Board
Principal responsibilities of this body include
• Design Meeting
The Board will call regular design meetings and set the
agenda for these meetings.
o Project Control
The Board will continually monitor the overall pi ogress
of the Phase III project and recommend corrective actions
to compensate for any problems which might affect overall
system performance or slippages which might delay major
project milestones.
o Presentation of Papers
The Board will coordinate the preparation, review,present-
ation, and disposition of working papers and design papers
a Design Acceptability
The Board will establish consensus positions on the accepta-
bility of module design approaches and programming criteria
recommended by the SEAS research contractors
e Data Acceptability
The Board will establish a working arrangement with the
Quality Review Board to assure that independent judgment
is obtained on the validity of all pertinent SEAS data.
-------
• Working Meetings
Working meetings of cognizant government technical repre-
sentatives and research contractors will be called by the
Board to clarify or resolve issues on specific subjects.
• Change Control
The Board will assure that design changes to the SEAS
system are properly reviewed, tested, and documented
before being introduced into the SEAS system.
e Scenario Runs
The Board will coordinate the definition and execution of
scenario runs in keeping with the policy alternatives
guidance provided by the Inter-agency Coordinating Group
The system integration services contractor will serve as the operational
arm of the Design Review Board in carrying out the above responsibilities
-------
SEAS PHASE III MODULES DEVELOPMENT
Overview of the Phase ITT ST-AS Sybtem
An overview of the SEAS system following the implementation of Phase III
extensions is presented in Figure 7. Each block in the diagram represents
either a module or a package of related modules. The lower left-hand
corner of the block is annotated as NEW or MOD to indicate whether the
Phase III extension represents a new or modified capability. The lower
right-hand corner shows the number of the Work Package Series under
which the Phase III work will be performed.
A more detailed system flowchart, depicting all program modules and
intermediate data files keyed to their appropriate package numbers,
is shown in Figure 8, The blocks In this figure represent programs, the
circles data files.
A functional description of each module package shown in Figure 7 is
presented below
» SEAS Preprocessor
The user first formulates his assumptions concerning future
demographic and economic conditions. He then inputs these
assumptions into the SEAS preprocessor, along with the technolo-
gical change options he selects from among the available
alternative future developments stored in the system. The pre-
processor structures this data for input into the national
economy model.
-------
FeeaoacK
SEAS
Preprocessor
New 500
i
V
Industrial
Regionali-
zation
Mod 200
National
Economy
Model
Mod
200
A
Feedback
Regional Non-
Industrial
Residuals &
Costs
Mod 3PO
Materials
& Energy
Balance
New
400
I
Stocks
New 100
Feedback
i
Abatement
Costs
Mod 200
A
Industrial
Residuals
Mod 200
Damage
Functions
New 400
SEAS
Postprocessor
Mod 500
V
Figure 7. Phase III Overview of Strategic Environmental
Summary
Reports
ft r- ooo
-------
FEEDBACK LOOP
I
r
OBACK LOOP
NATIONAL
MODEL
210 220 230
a
w
. r\
v_y
i
DETAIL
REPORT
L-^*
i
DETAIL
REPORT
L^^^"^
COSTS
27]
WATER
COSTS
— v
T
T—21*
X
/ 1
V
a* MACE
FtWCTlOWS
t ./COEfF\
•-y«TR,y
1
1
] DETAIL
I REPORT
3-
p
-
-
-
-
-
FOSSIL
FUELS
110
SCARCE
METALS
120
WATER
RESOURCES
130
ACR (CULTURAL
RESOURCES
14(
FORESTRY
RESOURCES
150
DURABLES
160
CAPITAL
170
TOXIC
SUBSTANCES
ISO
Figure 8 SEAS Phise III Flowchart
-------
this figure represent programs, the circles data files.
A functional description of each module package shown in Figure 7 is
presented below:
• National Economy Model
The national economy model develops economic forecasts and in-
dustrial output projections through 1985. In performing its
computations, the model applies the special sector disaggregations
and technological substitution growth functions developed for
SEAS.
• Industrial Regionalization
Sector and subsector outputs, and other economic variables
such as public revenues and expenditures, are regionalized
according to the geographic option specified by the user.
The regionalization level selected may range from counties to
the nation, including SMSA's, AQCR's, and OBERS aggregated
subarea river basins.
Industrial Residuals
Alternative sets of residual coefficients, corresponding to the
abatement technology alternatives selected by the user, are then
applied to the regionalized economic data to forecast the total
weight of gross, net, and recycled residuals for each year
specified by the user from 1971 through 1985.
-------
• Stocks Modules
Population, personal consumption, final demand, selected sector
outputs, import/Cxport levels, and other forecasts developed by
the national economy model can serve as input to the stock
reserves modules. These modules perform a material flow analysis
to develop forecasts of potential imbalances between resource
demand and the availability of resources such as fossil fuels,
scarce metals, and fresh water.
• Regional Non-Industrial Residuals and Costs
Selected projections from the national economy model will also
serve as input to the regional, non-industrial modules. These
modules forecast the residuals and costs for alternative strategies
used to abate pollution from transportation, space heating, land
use, and consumer waste. The same degree of regionalization will
be specified in these modules as in the industrial regionalization
module.
• Materials Balance
This module takes data on solid waste and stock reserves and
performs a material accounting function. The physical flow of
solid waste materials is traced to determine the amount lost as
pollutants and that restored to material and energy stocks through
recycling Net differences are then fedback into the stocks module.
-------
• Abatement Costs
Industrial and municipal treatment costs are computed through
the application of alternative cost coefficients associated
with the abatement alternatives used to compute industrial
residuals. All abatement costs will be calculated, including in-
process treatment costs as well as end-of-pipe costs.
• Energy Balance
Energy consumption projected by the transportation and space
heating modules is fed to an energy model, which combines this
data with the national industrial use of energy forecast by the
economy model. The total demand for energy is then compared
with the total energy production forecast by the national economy
model and with the availability of energy sources predicted by
the stocks modules.
» pama ge_ Funct10ns
Pollutant residuals from all sources are fed to a damage-functions
module, which assesses the physical effects, benefits, and
social costs of the quality level achieved.
• Economic Impact Assessment
The total set of costs of abatement for all sources is fedback to the
national economy model to determine the resultant impact on
industrial productivity, output, prices, and final demand.
Similarly, data on resource availability is fedback to the
national economy model to determine the effect on pricing in
the affected sectors.
-------
* SEAS Post-Processor
Data on residuals, abatement costs, stock reserves, and effects
is fed to the SEAS post-processor. This module enables the
user to exercise selectivity over the reports produced and the
degree of data aggregation and regionalization. Final summary
reports produced by the post-processor are formatted to facilitate
comparative evaluations between time periods, regions, and alter-
native scenarios.
Work Package Structure
Figure 9 shows the work package breakdown proposed for the performance
of all tasks required to implement Phase III modifications within the
SEAS system. Tasks are identified as falling within one of five general
work package series- (1) stocks modules, (2) national industrial
forecasting and regionalization modules; (3) regional non-industrial fore-
casting modules, (A) assessment modules; (5) system integration services
Task descriptions for each package shown in this chart are presented below
in numerical order. Dates shown in the flowchart for each package represent
the scheduled date lor completion of module programming modifications.
Packages 110-180, Stocks Modules
1 Task Description
>>
The forecasting capability of the SEAS system will be extended by a
set of modules which forecast the national and regional stock reserves
of fossil fuels, scarce metals, water resources, agricultural resources,
forestry, durables, and possibly, capital and toxic substances.
2. General Approach
Each stocks module will be developed in accordance with a generalized
materials flow and resource balance approach, similar to that designed
by IRT for the SEAS prototype system.
-------
100
STOCKS
-
-
-
110
FOSSIL
FUELS
120
SCARCE
METALS
130
WATER
RESOURCES
140
AGRICULTURAL
RESOURCES
150
FORESTRY
RESOURCES
160
DURABLES
170
CAPITAL
180
TOXIC
SUBSTANCES
200
NATIONAL
INDUSTRIAL
FORECASTING
-
210
IMPROVED
MACRO DRIVER
220
EXTENSION OF
I/O MATRIX
230
TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE
240
INSIDE
EXTENSION
250
REGIONALIZATION
260
RESGEN
IMPROVEMENT
270
ABATEMENT
COSTS
271
INDUSTRIAL
AIR COSTS
272
INDUSTRIAL
WATER COSTS
273
MUNICIPAL
COSTS
300
REGIONAL
NON-INDUSTRIAL
FORECASTING
-
310
SOLID WASTE
(GENERATION &
RECYCLING)
320
LAND USE
330
TRANSPORTATION
REFINEMENT
340
SPACEHEAT
REFINEMENT
400
ASSESSMLNT
-
410
DAMAGE
FUNCTIONS
420
ENERGY
BALANCE
430
MATERIALS
BALANCE
440
ECONOMIC
IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
450
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
500
SYSTEM
INTEGRATION
SERVICES
510
DESIGN REVIEW
BOARD SUPPORT
520
SYSTEM
MAINTENANCE
& TESTING
530
SEAS
PREPROCESSOR
540
EXTENSION OF
POST-PROCESSOR
550
USERS
FEATURES
560
DATA ENTRY i
MAINTENANCE
570
DOCUMENTATION
& CHANGE
CONTROL
580
SYSTEM
OPERATION
Figure 9 Phase III Work Package Breakdown
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)
-------
Prerequisites and Interfaces
Industrial, agricultural, and electric utility outputs from the
improved national economy model (WP 210) and INSIDE (WP 240) will
provide input to the stocks modules. Other forecasts from the
national economy model, such as import/export levels, population, and
personal consumption, may also be used as inputs. Linkages to the
energy and materials balance modules (WP 420, 430) will be required
to develop the resources balance. Results will be fedback to the
extended I-O matrix in the economy model (WP 220) to determine
effects of pricing within affected industrial sectors.
Extended
Chase-
INPORUM
Model
~-«,
*?
INSIDE
210 ' 11/15/74
220 ' 11/01/74
240 12/30/74
Materials &
Energy
Balance
Modules
420
430
h
12/30/74
12/30/74
Stocks
Post
Processor
100 ' 12/30/74 540
2/28/75
Milestone Schedule
Subtask Objective/Product
100.1 Prepare Design Paper for Each
Separate Module
100.2 Design Approval
Start Date
7/1/74
10/15/74
End Date
10/15/74
10/30/74
-------
Subtask Objective/Product Start Date End Date
100.3 Prepare Programming Design Specs
100.4 Program and Test Modules
100.5 Prepare Diaft Documentation
Data Sources and Availability
10/30/74
11/15/74
3/15/74
11/15/74
12/30/74
5/15/74
Data on water and agricultural resources are to be supplied oy
the Water Resources Council. Sources and availability for other
data requirements are to be determined by the stocks uodules research
contractor.
Package 210, Improved Macro-Driver
Task Description
This task will introduce improvements into the SFAS prototype national
economy model in order to (1) facilitate input of exogenous variables
(2) forecast interest rates, wages and prices, (3) facilitates the
introduction of feedback on changes in price, capital investment,
consumption and demand.
General Approach
Items (1) and (2) above will be addressed through EPA subscription
to Chase-INFORUM model being developed jointly by Chase Econometrics
and University of Maryland. Item (3) improvements will be incorporated
as part of work on stocks, technological change, regionalization,
and abatement costs.
Sources and availability for other data requirements are to be determined
by module research contractors for stocks, technological change,
regionalization, and abatement costs.
-------
Package 220, Extension of I-O Matrix
Task Description
I
This task will extend the I-O matrix in the national economy model
to provide a bill-of-materials for handling price effect feedbacks
and a submatrix for handling abatement cost effects.
General Approach
The I-O matrix will be expanded to include additional columns for
handling feedback effects on pricing and a submatrix extension for
handling abatement cost effects, incl uding feedback effects on changes
in inter-industry productivity, output, and final demand.
\
Prerequisites/Interfaces
This package assumes that a pricing capability has been added to the
national economy model through adaption of the Chase-INK)RUM model
(WP 210). Pricing feedbacks are anticipated from stocks (WP 100)
and technological change (WP 230). The abatement cost submatrix
will accommodate and check the consistency of economic data going
to and from the abatement cost modules (WP 270). See flowchart in
paragraph 5.4.3).
-------
Milestone Schedule
Subtask
220.1
22J.2
220.3
220.4
220.5
220.6
Data Sources
Object ive /Product
Prepare Working Paper
Prepare Design Paper
Design Approval
Prepare Programming Design Spec
Program and Test Changes
Prepare Revised Documentation
and Availability
Start Date
6/15/74
7/15/74
8/15/74
8/30/74
9/15/74
3/15/75
End Date
7/15/74
8/15/74
8/30/74
9/15/74
11/01/74
5/15/75
Coefficients for the abatement cost submatrix must be developed by
the module research contractor. No other new data is required by
this task.
Package 230, Technological Change
Task Description
This task will expand the number and types of side equations used
to compute the effect of product and process substitutions resulting
from technologies change.
-------
General Approach
Side equations used to forecast the effect of changes in technology
will be added to INSIDE or, where appropriate, embedded in the macro-
driver of the national economy model. An analysis will be conducted
to determine the relative influence of the added coefficients, compared
with the original Almon coefficients.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Industrial outputs from the SEAS sectors and subsectors will supply
the input to the technological change side equations. This work
will likely require an expansion in the number of subsectors (WP 240).
Pricing feedbacks resulting from substitutions must be coordinated
with modification of the national economy model (WP 210 and 220).
(See flowchart in paragraph 5.4.3).
Milestone Schedule
Subtask
230.1
230.2
230.3
230.4
230.5
230.6
Objective/Pioduct
Prepare Working Papers
Prepare Design Papers
Design Approval
Prepare Programming Design Spec
Program and Test Equations
Prepare Revised Documentation
Start Date
7/01/74
9/01/74
10/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
3/15/75
End Date
9/01/74
10/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
2/01/75
5/15/75
-------
Package 240,INSIDE Extension
Task Description
This task will extend the number of subsectors contained within the
INSIDE module as a result of sector disaggregation and will determine
which parts of this module should be embedded directly into the
national economy model.
General Approach
The number of environmentally important subsectors will be increased
to cover all industries cited in Public Law 92-500. Additional
subsectors may result from the more detailed investigation of tech-
nological change, regionalization, abatement costs, solid-waste,
land=use, energy, and RESGEN residual coefficients.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
The Prototype INSIDE module is a separate module which takes the
output from INPORUM, disaggregates selected sectors, and produces
irore detailed outputs for residual forecasting. Subsectors within
INSIDE will be analyzed to determine if they should be embedded within
the modified macro-driver (WP 210) in order to provide iterative
feedback into the national economy model.
Milestone Schedule
Subtask Objective/Product Start Date End Date
(Milestones for this package
will proceed concurrently with
those for WP 230, 250, 260,
270 and 310, 320)
-------
Data Sources &. Availability
Appropriate sources of data lor INSIDE coefficients will be developed
by the module research contractors.
Package 250, Reg legalization
Task Description
This task will extend the regionalization capability of the SEAS
prototype system in order to forecast pollutant levels, abatement
costs, and damage functions, for SMSA's, AQCR's, and river basins.
This task will also estimate the industry relocation effects of
regional air and water quality standardb, and provide a disaggregation
of public sector expenditures.
General Approach
County Business Patterns, OBERS, Dunn and Bradstreet, Curtis Harris,
Jay Gould, and other sources of data on regional expenditures, earnings
and employment will be screened to select the sources most appropriate
for SEAS regionalization. Shift-share techniques will then be developed
to regionalize the outputs from the national economy model and to
apply these results to the forecasting of regional residuals and
abatement costs. The resultant forecasts will then be reconciled
with existing data from regional impact studies.
-------
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Sector and subsector outputs to be regionalized will be obtained from
the expanded national economy model (WP 220, 230) and INSIDE module
(WP 240). Regionalized outputs will be fed to the expanded REBGEN
(WP 260) and abatement costs (WP 270) modules. (See flowchart in
paragraph 5.4.3).
Milestone Schedule
Subtask
250.1
250.2
250.3
250.4
250.5
250.6
Data Sources
Object ive/Product
Prepare Working Papers
Prepare Design Papers
Design Approval
Prepare Programming Design Specs
Program and Test Module
Prepare Final Documentation
& Availability
Start Date
5/01/74
8/01/74
9/05/74
9/15/74
10/01/74
3/15/75
End Date
8/01/74
9/01/74
9/15/74
10/01/74
12/30/74
5/15/75
Appropriate data source for use in regionalization computations will
be determined by the module research contractor. River basin region
definitions will be in accordance with the OBERS aggregated subareas
used by the Water Resources Council. Kesults to be checked against
NEDS data and other current regional data sources. Guidance on state
and local government revenues and expenditures to be provided by
ACIR.
-------
Package 260, RESGEN Improvement
Task Description
This task will add or revise residual coefficients in the prototype
RESGEN matrix as new or more accurate data becomes available. It
will also expand the taxonomlc breakdown of residuals and apply
this breakdown in full to multiple secondary residuals produced during
the treatment process. In addition, the task will modify the RESGEN
module to accept regionalized sector/subsector outputs rather than
only national outputs.
General Approach
New information on residual coefficients from the NCWQ industry studies
and other sources will be evaluated for its impact on SEAS residual
estimates. Coefficients will also be developed for new subsectors
introduced through other tasks. The prototype taxonomy limits the
definition of secondary residuals to aggregate amounts released to
each carrier medium. The program will be restructured to provide
full taxonomic definition of these residuals and to apply the coef-
ficient matrix to multiple sets of output vectors representing differen-
regional breakdowns.
-------
Prerequisites/Interfaces
The RESGEN module must be capable of handling regionalized sector/
subsector outputs as defined in package WP 250. Residual outputs
from RESGEN will be fed to the abatement cost (WP 270), damage
functions (WP 410), and post-processor (WP 540) modules.
Economic
Regionali-
zation
Abatement
Costs
270
2/28/75
RESGEN
250 12/30/74 260
-U
Damage
Functions
410
2/15/75
Post
Processor
12/30/74 540
2/28/75
Milestone Schedule
Subtask
260.1
260.2
Objective/Product
Start Date
3/15/74
Complete Coefficient Expansion
for CEQ
Expand Residual Taxonomic Structure 5/15/74
(Other work to be performed concur-
rently with milestones for WP 250).
End Date
5/6/74
7/15/74
-------
Data Sources & Availability
Appropriate data sources are to be defined by the module reseaich
contractors. The NCWQ industry studies will provide a source for
improved or alternative water residual coefficients, keyed to specific
total flow processes.
Package 271-273, Abatement Costs
Task Description
This task will extend the capability of the SEAS prototype air and
water abatement cost modules to analyze alternative abatement tech-
nologies which change over time. The modified modules will develop
alteinative costs associated with each technology and will provide
feedback on the impact of these costs on inter-industry productivity,
output, price, and final demand.
General Approach v
The abatement cost matrices will be made more generalized so that
alternative sets of dynamic coefficients (and combinations thereof)
and abatement cost matrices may be applied at user discretion.
Industrial in-process, water reuse, end-of-pipe treatment technologies
and costs, as well as municipal treatment costs, will be considered
-------
for muullnK the 1977 HPT and 1983 BAT water quality standards
Feedback affecting productivity, output, prices, and final demand
will be fed to the improved national economy model.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Inputs will consist of economic and pollution data, regionalized to
the lowest geographic level found feasible in WP 250. Economic data
will be produced by the national economy model, modified to handle
abatement costs (WP 220) and technological change (WP 230), pollutant
levels will be produced by the expanded RESGEN module (WP 260) .
(See flowchart in paragraph 5.4.3).
Milestone Schedule
Subtask
270.1
270.2
270.3
270.4
270.5
270.6
Data Sources
Obj ect i ve /Product
Prepare Separate Working Papers
for Air and Water Abatement Costs
Prepare Design Papers
Desing Approval
Prepare Programming Design Specs
Program and Test Modules
Prepare Final Documentation
and Availability
Start Date
6/15/74
9/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
12/01/74
3/15/75
End Date
9/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
11/30/74
2/28/75
5/15/75
Appropriate data from the NCWQ industry studies and from current
EPA sources will be identified and used by the module research con-
tractors.
-------
Package 310, Solid Waste (With Recycling)
Task Description
This task will extend the prototype consumer waste module, which
forecasts amounts of solid waste generated and average disposal
costs by mode. The revised module will also forecast the amount
of recycled material and the air and water residuals resulting from
land-fill, energy-recovery, and material-recovery processes.
General Approach
The amount and composition of solid waste will be projected on the
basis of material flows resulting from industrial activity. Industrial
commercial and household wastes will be forecast. The economic effects
of recycling will be determined through feedbacks to the national
economy model.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Industrial sector outputs will be obtained from the improved national
economy model (WP 210, 220). Feedbacks will be developed as part of
an overall materials balance (WP 100, 220, 430). Results will be
fed to the SEAS post-processor (WP 540) and possibly damage functions
modules (WP 410). The regionalization level will be consistent with
that developed in WP 250.
-------
1
1
V
Extended
Chase-
INFORUM
Model
^N^
^
210 ^11/15/74
220 I 11/01/74
i
i
i
INSIDE
240
\
^~-^
*f
12/30/74
1
Stocks
^,
•^
1
i
i
Solid
Waste
310
\
1/15/75
/
Materials
Balance
-5
Damage
Functions
410 2/15/75
*Y»
Post
Processor
540 2/28/75
100
12/30/74 430 12/30/74
Milestone Schedule
Subtask Objective/Product Start Date End Date
310.1 Prepare Working Papers 7/01/74 9/01/74
310.2 Prepare Design Papers &/01/74 10/15/74
310.3 Design Approval 10/15/74 11/01/74
310.4 Prepare Programming Design Spec 11/01/74 11/15/74
310.5 Program and Test Module 11/15/74 1/15/75
310.6 Prepare Final Documentation 3/15/75 5/15/75
Data Sources and Availability
The module research contractor will be responsible for determining
v
the availability of suitable data sources, to include the following-
o Midwest Research Institute, Base Line Forecasts of Resource
Recovery
» Frank Smith and Fred Smith, EPA Office of Solid Waste Management
e 1968 National Survey of Community Solid Waste Practices
e OBERS regional projections
-------
Package 32 0, Land-Use Module
Task Description
This task will extend the prototype land-use reseives module to
include the capability of forecasting non-process runoff residuals
and abatement costs within urban and agricultural land-use category s.
General Approach
All acreage within a region will be allocated to various land-use
categories according to a formal classification scheme. The regional
agricultural category will be further broken down by major crop 6nd
type of cultivation. Pollutant levels will be estimated for extraction
and site modification runoff and erosion, and for residuals resulting
from insecticides, pesticides, fertilizers, and animal waste. Application,
deterioration, and leakage rates will be considered in developing
residual and abatement cost forecasts for both urban and rural areas.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
This task will build upon the prototype land-use reserves module
and will derive selected inputs from the improved national economy
model (WP 210, 220). Outputs will be fed to the post-processor (WP 540)
and damage functions (WP 400) modules. The regionalization level will
be consistent with that developed in WP 250.
-------
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Work on improving the macro-driver for the national economj model must
be coordinated with the expansion of the I-O matrix (WP 220) and
the development of a SEAS pre-processor (WP 530). Feedback developments
will proceed in parallel with stocks (WP 100), technological change
(WP 230). and abatement costs (WP 270).
Pre-
processor
I
i
V
Abatement
Costs
270
Extended
Chase-
INFORUM
Model
530 3/15/75 210 ^11/15/74
220 . 11/01/74
230 ,2/01/75
INSIDE
240
2/28/75
Economic
Regionaliza-
tion
PESGEN
12/30/74 250 12/30/74 260 12/30/7^
Stocks
100
12/30/74
Milestone Schedule
Subtask Objective/Product Start Date End Date
210.1 Extend national economy model 5/1/74 11/15/74
to include Chase-INFORUM macro-
driver and pre-processing capa-
bilities
(Other work in this package to be performed concurrently with milestones
for WP 100, 230, and 250).
Data Sources and Availability
Pricing and wages data and other structural data for the Chase- INI-ORUM mode'
will be supplied by Clopper Almon of the University of Maryland and
Chase Econometrics, Inc
-------
1
V
Extended
Chase-
INFORUM
Model
210 11/15/74
220 11/01/74
INSIDE
240 12/30/74
i
i
Land
Use
320 2/15/75^
Damage
Functions
410
2/15/75
Post
Processor
540
Milestone Schedule
2/28/75
Subtask
320.1
320.2
320.3
320.4
320.5
320.6
Objective/Product
Prepare Working Paper
Prepare Design Paper
Design Approval
Prepare Programming Design Spec
Program and Test Module
Prepare Final Documentation
Start Date
7/01/74
9/01/74
10/15/74
10/30/74
11/15/74
3/15/75
End Date
9/01/74
10/15/74
10/30/74
11/35/74
2/15/75
5/15/75
Package 330. Transportation Refinement
Task Description
This task will refine the prototype transportation module to provide
a detailed regionalization of results beyond the state level. Additional
modifications will be introduced as dictated by the abatement cost*
and energy analyses.
-------
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Work on refining the spaceheat module will proceed in parallel with
the regionalization (WP 250), abatement costs (WP 270), and energy
(WP 330) tasks. Changes in output must be coordinated with work on
damage functions (WP 410) and the post-processor (WP 540).
i
\^
Extended
Chase-
INPORUM
Model
210 All/15/'
220 jll/01/'
i
i
i . ._ _
h ^>
14
74
INSIDE
v,
240 1 12/30/74
V
Stocks
^
V,
1
*
1
Space
Heating
340'
\
Ene
Bal
12/30/74
t
rgy
ance
•>
*»»
i
Damage
Functions
410 2/15/75
Post
\ Processor
540 2/28/7
100
12/30/74
420
12/30/74
Milestone Schedule
This work will proceed concuirently with the milestones for regionalization
(WP 250), abatement costs (WP 270), and energy (WP 420).
-------
1
1
1
y
Extended
Chase-
INFORUM
Model
— >
210 A 11/15/74
220 ' 11/01/74
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1
INSIDE
240
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12/30/74
Slocks
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-"
v.
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Trans portatio
n—
330 12/30/74
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Energy
Balance
•>»
^
Damage
Functions
410 2/15/75
••^
Post
Processor
540 2/28/75
100 12/30/74 420 12/30/74
Milestone Schedule
This \iork will proceed concurrently with the milestones for region-
alization (WP250) , abatement costs (\\T270) , and energy (WP420)
Package 340, Spaceheat Refinement
Task Description
This task will refine the prototype spaceheat module to provide a
detailed regionalization of results beyond the state level. Additional
modifications will be introduced as dictated by the abatement cost
and energy analyses.
General Approach
A regionalization procedure, compatible with the detail achieved in
the national process modules, will be incorporated into the prototype
spaceheat module. Further refinements will include the introduction
of abatement cost feedback to the improved national economy model
and inputs to the energy balance and damage function modules.
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Package 410, Damage Functions
Task Description
This task will forecast the social benefits and costs of achieving
different air and water quality staiidaids at the regional and
national levels.
General Approach
Damage functions, which estimate dollar benefits and costs, will be
applied to national and regional pollutant residual forecasts de-
veloped by the SEAS system. Other functions may be developed to predict
the effects of residual levels on health, ecology, and socio-economic
activity, such as changes in labor productivity and recreational
trends, within a given regional area.
Prerequisites/Interfaces
Input data for the damage function modules will be derived from all
of the SEAS residual generation modules (WP 260, 300). Summary
output will be fed to the post-processor (TO 540) for inclusion
in the SEAS system summary reports.
RESGEN
260
12/30/74
Transportation
& Space
Heating
330.340 12/30/74
Solid
Waste
310
1/15/75
Land
Use
Damage
Functions
Post
Processor
410
2/15/75
540
2/28/75
320
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Milestone Schedule
Subtask Obj ec11ve/Produet Start Date End Date
400.1 Prepare Separate Working Papers 7/15/74 10/01/74
for Air and Water Damage Functions
400.2
400.3
400.4
400.5
400.6
Data
Prepare Design Papers
Design Appioval
Prepare Programming Design Specs
Program and Test Modules
Prepare Fina^ Documentation
Sources and Availability
10/01/74
11/15/74
12/01/74
12/15/74
3/15/75
11/15/74
12/01/74
12/15/74
2/15/75
5/15/75
RFF is currently evaluating the use of unit damage factors being developed
for air and water by Peskm and Gianessi of the Urban Institute. These
factors are expressed in terms of dollars of damage per dollar of
sector output, keyed to certain standards. These may be used to cal-
culate damages for deteimining the effects of pollutant levels, with
and without abatement on health, avoidance costs, materials damage,
soiling, loss in property value, and defensive costs. Their use,
however, must be closely analyzed to correlate the implied lesiduals
coefficients with those in the SEAS residual generation modules.
RFF also anticipates using the damage factors developed by Dennis
Tihanski/and John Jaksch of EPA/WERC for evaluating environmental
damage in urban areas. Since these factors are to be applied to
ambient concentrations, a rollback dispersion model would be required
for their use.
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Package 420, Energy Balance
Task Description
This task will extend the treatment of energy in the SEAS prototype
system to forecast the total energy generated and consumed at national
and regional levels and to estimate the pollutants residual levels
associated with these forecasts.
General Approach
Energy flows will be identified both by back-solving the national
economy 1-0 model and by developing analogous physical flows. An
expanded set of side-equations will then be developed to compute the
energy outputs produced by these flows. A separate module will be
developed to convert these outputs, plus those from the transportation
and spaceheat modules, to natural units and BTU's and then aggregate
these amounts into useful categories. The resultant balance, or
imbalance, between demand and supply will be computed and special
energy related reports will be developed.
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Prerequisites/Interfaces
The necessary side equations will be built into the national economy
model (WP 210), Industrial and utility energy outputs will be region-
alized (WP 250) and merged with those from transportation (WP 340)
and spaceheat (WP 350) for production of energy related reports.
Extended
Chase-
Inforum
Model
INSIDE
210 ^11/15/74 240 12/30/74
220
11/01/74
Transportat ion
& Space
Heat ing
330
340
\
.12/30/74
12/30/74
Energy
Balance
Post
Processo*
V
12/30/74 540 2/28/75
Stocks
100
« 12/30/74
I Milestone Schedule
Subtask Objective/Product
420.1 Complete CEQ project to develop
total BTU forecasts for nation
and federal regions
(Additional work beyond this
initial effort will be scheduled
later).
Start Date
3/15/74
End Date
5/31/74
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Package 430, Materials Balance
Task Description
This task will provide the SEAS prototype system with a materials
flow accounting capability, so that an increase in recycling activity
is reflected in reduced rates of stock depletion.
General Approach
Forecasted amounts of solid waste residuals and recycled materials,
resulting from both industrial and consumption activities, will be
compared against available stock reserves. A materials balance
approach will be developed so that the reserves of affected stocks
are incremented by corresponding changes in the amount of recycled
material.
Prerequisites and Interfaces
Inputs from the stocks modules (WP100) and the solid waste module
(WP310) will be required to perform the materials balance. Results
of the analyses will be used to adjust the total reserves in the
affected stock modules. They will also be fed to the post-processor
(WP540) for presentation in SEAS summary reports.
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Extended
Chase-
INFORUM
Model
INSIDE
210 All/15/74 240
220 - 11/01/74
12/30/74
Solid
Waste
310
1/15/75
Materials
Balance
430A
Post
Processor
12/30/74 540
2/28/75
Stocks
100
12/30/74
Milestone Schedule
Sutatask
430.1
430.2
430.3
430.4
430.5
430.6
Data Sources
Ob ject ive /Product
Prepare
Prepare
Design
Prepare
Spec
Program
Prepare
and Availability
Working Papers
Design Papers
Approval
Programming Design
and Test Module
Final Documentation
Start Date
7/01/74
9/01/74
10/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
3/15/75
End Date
9/01/74
10/15/74
11/01/74
11/15/74
12/30/74
5/15/75
Data for this module will be generated by the solid waste and stocks
modules.
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Package 440, Economic Impact
Task Description
The purpose of this task is to perform an economic assessment of
SEAS forecasts in support of the National Commission's Part VI
study area.
General Approach
The task will begin with a definition of alternative technological,
demographic, and economic assumptions. The input required for each
of these scenarios will then be structured for entry into the SEAS
pre-processor. For each scenario, output from the national economy
model will be analyzed following each iteration of abatement cost
feedback. The resultant effect on industrial productivity, output,
pricing, and final demand will be examined and correlated with
future technological developments.
Prerequisites and Interfaces
Work on the Phase III extensions in Technological Change (WP230)
and abatement cost (WP270) must be completed before this package
may be performed.
Milestone Schedule
This work will be performed during May and June 1975, with an
assessment study report submitted to the Commission by the end of
July 1975.
Data Sources and Availability
The data on technological change and abatement costs required for
this study will be developed under NCWQ study contracts. This data
will be captured, screened, edited, and loaded into SEAS during the
period from December 1974 through April 1975.
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System Integration Services
The tasks to be performed in the system integration services package
arc summaiized in the following paragraphs
Package 510, Design Review Doaid Suppoit
Services will be provided in this task to assist the Design Review Board
in the planning and control of all Phase III work packages. Progress
on each package will be monitored against the objectives set forth in
this plan. All potential problems and schedule slippages will be
reported to the responsible government technical representative.
Planning revisions and project reprogramming will be implemented as
dnected by the Board.
Package 520, System Maintenance and Testing
File handling procedures and feedback loops within SEAS will be
standardized to create integrated files wherever possible and to
facilitate more efficient processing A uniform systems approach vill
be developed for the processing of feedbacks within the operational
constraints of the EPA computer facility. Particular attention will
be given to the computer techniques used for cost and price effect
feedbacks to the improved national economy model (see WP100, 210,220,
270, and 300) and the file interactions required by the energy and
materials balance programs (WP420 and 430)
v
When a change is made to any module, this task will also evaluate the
potential impact of that change on the performance of other modules
in the system. Programming changes will be introduced where required
to maintain consistency among files.
System tests will be periodically designed and conducted to checkout
all module modifications. After the test results are reviewed by the
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Design Review Board, all accepted module modifications will be
copied into the master library of SEAS program and data files.
Appropriate backup to these files will be maintained at all times.
Package 530, SEAS Pre-Processoi
This task will provide a pre-piocessor for the SEAS system to facilitate
the input of scenano options by SEAS users. The pro-processor will
provide for the entry of data overrides for specifying the user's
demographic and economic assumptions It will also permit the user
to select, from among multiple options, the technological and other
future alternatives he wishes to test These options will be entered
in the general input stream created prior to execution of the national
economy model. Work on the pre-processor will be coordinated with the
procedure used to enter data in the Chase-INFORUM model and the output
tables provided by Chase Econometrics (See WP210)
The schedule for implementation of the SEAS pre-piocessoi is presented
below:
Subtask
530.1
530.2
530.3
530.4
530.5
530.6
Package
Objective/Product
Prepare Working Paper
Prepare Design Paper
Design Approval
Prepare Programming Design Spec
Program and Test Module
Prepare Final Documentation
540, Extension of Post-Processor
Start
Date
9/15/74
11/15/74
12/15/74
1/01/75
1/15/75
3/15/75
End
Date
11/15/74
12/15/74
"12/30/74
1/15/75
3/15/75
5/15/75
This task will extend the capability of the SEAS post-processor to handle
new input resulting from developments in the stocks, residual-generation,
abatement cost, and damage function modules. It will also provide more
extensive user control over output selectivity and the degree of data
regionalization and aggregation in the final summary reports Report
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formats will be designed to highlight data on important trends and
comparisons. This work will be conducted concurrently with other module
modifications, and will be completed by February 28, 1975
Package 550, Usei Feat me*.
This task will provide the SLAS system us>er with a bioadoi range oJ
options and increased selectivity over the regions, sectors, residual
categories, carrier media, source types, economic activities, and
toxicity levels for which he desires a report The SEAS prototype system
now employs a common taxonomic coding scheme throughout all its modules.
Information retrieval techniques based on these codes will be applied
to the SEAS module output files to enable the user to specify which
set of data he is interested in studying.
Package 560, Data Entry and Maintenance
This task will provide for the collection t reduction, and editing of
data developed under study contracts pertinent to SEAS. It will also
provide for any necessary format conversions and for loading the data
into files accessible to the SEAS system The intent of this task
will be to identify the data requirements for each module as early
as possible so that data capture may proceed in parallel with module
development This approach will be of particular importance in regards
to the development of NCWQ data on technological change and abatement
costs, which is not scheduled for completion until the end of March,
1975.
Package 570, Documentation and Change Control
This task requires that the services contractor maintain records on the
status of proposed changes to the SEAS system and that he prepare and issue
revisions to the Users Manual, Programmers Manual, and Data Specifications
Manual for all changes which have been approved, implemented, and vali-
dated, it also requires that the services contractor, working under the
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Design Review Board, develop procedures for the Justification and
documentation of data- entered into the system.
Systerv Operation
In this task, the services contractor will document the requirements
for all, scenario runs approved by the Design Review Board, execute
the runs, and maintain records and run books documenting each scenario
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VI . SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTORS
The development of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
through the Prototype Phase has included research contributions by the
following government units and private corporations.
General design, technical management, regionalization design,
and applications design - Washington Environmental Research
Center, U.S.E.P.A.
•General development of INFORUM for many users, including SEAS -
Clopper Almon, Jr. et al , University of Maryland
•General design and implementation of the SEAS Test Model -
CONSAD Corporation
•Test Model component contributors - International Business
Machines, Federal Systems; Control Data Corporation, The
Institute for Analysis
•Adaptation of INFORUM to SEAS by use of INSIDE equations,
development of RESGEN and detailed design of scenarios -
International Research and Technology, Inc.
•Development of cost of abatement modules, design of effects/
reactions and nonindustrial process modules - CONSAD Corporation
•Prototype System integration, programming and documentation -
Control Data Corporation
•Prototype studies of radiation, pesticides and severity
indicators - MITRE Corporation
Additionally, there were many individual, federal agency, and corporate con-
tributions in specialized areas and in design review actions
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