EPA-600/2-76-063
March 1976
Environmental Protection Technology Series
                    SOURCES  BY POPULATION
                                        Industrial Environmental Research Ubwatwy
                                              dfiict of Research and Deveipeflt
                                              U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                        Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

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               RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and Development. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into five series. These five broad
categories were established to facilitate further development and application of
environmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The five series are:

     1.   Environmental Health Effects Research
     2.   Environmental Protection Technology
     3.   Ecological Research
     4.   Environmental Monitoring
     5.   Socioeconomic Environmental Studies

This report has been  assigned  to the ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION
TECHNOLOGY series. This series describes research performed to develop and
demonstrate instrumentation, equipment, and methodology to repair or prevent
environmental  degradation from point and non-point sources of pollution. This
work provides the new  or improved technology required for the control and
treatment of pollution sources to meet environmental quality standards.
                    E PA REVIEW NOTICE

This report has been reviewed by  the U.S.  Environmental
Protection Agency, and approved for publication.  Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policy of the Agency,  nor does mention of trade
names or  commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                  EPA-600/2-76-063
                                  March 1976
                  POPEX

 RANKING AIR  POLLUTION  SOURCES

     BY  POPULATION EXPOSURE
                     by

  Lyndon R. Babcock, Jr. and Niren L. Nagda

             University of Illinois
        Medical Center, P.O. Box 6998
            Chicago, Illinois  60680
             Grant No. R-802111
            ROAPNo. 21ADK-031
         Program Element No. 1AB012
     EPA Project Officer:  C.T. Ripberger

 Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
   Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry
      Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                Prepared for

U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
      Office of Research and Development
            Washington, DC 20460

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© 1976 by Niren L. Nagda

In accordance with the terms of its grant, the grantee has
granted to the Government a royalty-free, nonexclusive,
and irrevocable license throughout the world for Government
purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform,
dispose of, and to authorize others so to do,  the copyrighted
material contained herein.
                          ii

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                           ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


     The financial support provided by the U. S. Environmental Pro-

tection Agency  (EPA grant No. R-802111) is gratefully acknowledged.

     I am indebted to Professor Lyndon R. Babcock, Jr., who served as

the thesis advisor, for his guidance, constant encouragement, and

support in this interdisciplinary research.  I am, also, grateful to

Drs. Bertram W. Carnow, Ruy V. Lourenco, Alvin L. Miller, Irving F.

Miller, Richard A. Wadden, and Arthur H. Wolff, members of the

examining committee, for their critical comments and helpful sugges-

tions.  My thanks to Carl T. Ripberger, the project officer of the

EPA grant, who suggested this interesting research problem.

     Robert J. Allen and Sandra Finkelstein reviewed the entire manu-

script and their comments proved extremely valuable.  The assistance

of Glenn F. Kerbs in writing and debugging the computer program is

acknowledged.  Computational facilities for this research were pro-

vided by the Computer Center, University of Illinois at Chicago Circle

and their assistance is gratefully acknowledged.

     My special thanks to Vera L. Donlan and Rosalie Miulli for their

meticulous typing of this dissertation.

     I am indebted to my family for their patient understanding.

     To all these persons, and many others, my sincere thanks.
                                                        NLN
                                  iii

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                       TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER

                                                                 PAGE


        LIST OF TABLES	viii


        LIST OF FIGURES	   xi


        SUMMARY	,	xiii


    I.  INTRODUCTION  	    1


          STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM  .......  	    1


          OBJECTIVES	    2


          DEFINITIONS	    2


          JUSTIFICATION AND SIGNIFICANCE  	    4


          APPROACH AND SCOPE	    6


          FORMAT OF PRESENTATION 	    7


   II.  AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM	    9


          DEFINITION OF A SYSTEM FOR AIR  QUALITY MANAGEMENT.  .  .    9
                           *.          '

          UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM  .  .   12
             >              i                         i
  III.  MODELING	,	   16


          INTRODUCTION	   16


          QUANTITATION OF UNCERTAINTIES	   17


          RATIONALE	   25


          SELECTION OF PARAMETERS AND DESCRIPTION	   28


          FLOW DIAGRAM	   35


          DEVELOPMENT OF SUBMODELS  	   38
                                IV

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  IV.  DISPERSION SUBMODEL	     40

         INTRODUCTION  	     40

         DEVELOPMENT	'.	     43

   V.  POPULATION SUBMODEL	     61

         INTRODUCTION  	     61

         DEVELOPMENT.	,	     61

  VI.  HEALTH-EFFECTS  SUBMODEL	     66

         INTRODUCTION  	     66

         DEVELOPMENT	     67

 VII.  COMPUTER MODELS AND  INPUT DATA	     81

         COMPUTER MODEL:  POPEX  	     81

         COMPUTER MODELS:   MASS INDEX  AND  PINDEX	     88

         INPUT DATA	     88
                                     x
VIII.  RESULTS OF THE  POPEX MODEL	     92

         FORMAT OF RESULTS	     92

         RESULTS	    129

  IX.  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE POPEX MODEL	    146

         METHOD	    146

         RESULTS. .	    148

         DISCUSSION	    151

   X.  IMPLICATIONS OF THE  METHODOLOGY	    154

         APPROACH	    154

         IMPLICATIONS  	    175

         LIMITATIONS OF THE POPEX MODEL 	    176

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       FUTURE WORK	    177





XI.  CONCLUSIONS	.......    179





     LIST OF REFERENCES	    182





     APPENDIX A:  ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING STUDIES  OF HEALTH





     EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION	    187





       SUMMARY	    187





       INTRODUCTION	    188





       EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES (A3-A11)	    195





       EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES - GROUP  1 -  CORRELATION





         STUDIES (A16-A20)  	    210





       EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES - GROUP  2 -  CROSS-SECTIONAL





         STUDIES (A21-A25)	    213





       EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES - GROUP  3 -  LONGITUDINAL





         STUDIES (A26-A31)	    217





       COMMENTS	    219





       ASSESSMENT OF HEALTHS-EFFECT STUDIES	    230





       CONCLUSIONS	    233





       LIST OF  REFERENCES FOR APPENDIX  A	    236





    APPENDIX B:  LISTING OF THE COMPUTER PROGRAM	    241





    APPENDIX C:  LISTING OF THE SOURCE-CATEGORY  NUMBERS AND





    THE SOURCE CLASSIFICATION CODES.(SCC)  	    264





    APPENDIX D:  EMISSIONS  DATA FOR  SOURCES  OF AIR POLLUTION





    IN THE CHICAGO AQCR	    293








                               vi

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APPENDIX E:  MAXIMUM POSSIBLE CHANGE IN TWO SETS OF




POPEX VALUES	   325




VITA	   327

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                           LIST OF TABLES



  TABLE                                                            PAGE

     I.    PARAMETERS FOR EXPOSURE MODELING 	     26

    II.    COMPARISON OF UNITED STATES AND CHICAGO AQCR
           EMISSIONS	     32

   III.    DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR CHICAGO AQCR (27)	     36

    IV.    ANNUAL RESULTANT WINDSPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS
           FOR CHICAGO	     45

     V.    EQUATIONS FOR ANGLE 0 IN THE DISPERSION  SUBMODEL  .  .     59

   VI.    AIR QUALITY STANDARDS AND TOLERANCE FACTORS
           (IN pg/m3)	     69

  VII.    DERIVATION OF TOLERANCE FACTORS  	     75

 VIII.   EXPLANATIONS OF VARIABLES USED IN THE COMPUTER
           PROGRAM	     82

   IX.   EMISSIONS DATA FOR COUNTIES IN THE CHICAGO AQCR IN
           TONS/YEAR OBTAINED FROM APPENDIX D .  . .	     90
                    t

    X.   EMISSIONS AND RESULTS OF MASS INDEX, PINDEX AND
           POPEX FOR EACH OF ffHE SOURCE-CATEGORIES
           IN THE CHICAGO AQCR	'	     93
                                                                    )
   XI.    CHICAGO AQCR SOURCE-CATEGORIES IN THE DECREASING
           ORDER OF POPEX	     122

 XII.    ASSIGNMENT OF RANKS BASED ON PERCENT CONTRIBUTIONS
           OF EACH OF THE  SOURCE CATEGORIES TO POPEX, PINDEX
           AND MASS INDEX	     129

XIII.    POPEX - RANK-GROUPS	     130

 XIV.    SOURCE-CATEGORIES IN POPEX-RANK-GROUP ONE  	     133

  XV.    SUMMARY TABLE FOR POINT SOURCES IN POPEX-RANK-
          GROUP ONE	     136
                                Vlll

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   XVI.   SOURCE-CATEGORIES  IN POPEX-RANK-GROUP  TWO  	    144

  XVII.   RESULTS OF THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS  	    149

 XVIII.   INDICES, PI/MI, PO/PI AND SOURCE LOCATIONS FOR
            SOURCE CATEGORIES IN CHIAGO AQCR   .........    157

   XIX.   POPULATION DENSITIES AND SLOPES OF PO/PI VERSUS STACK
            HEIGHTS FOR SIX  COUNTIES	    173

 APPENDIX A

   A-I.   LUNG VOLUMES, CAPACITIES AND PULMONARY FUNCTION
            MEASUREMENTS: NOMENCLATURE AND
            DEFINITIONS  (Al)  	    190

  A-II.   CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION OF OBSTRUCTION
            PULMONARY DISEASES  	    193

 A-III.   THE GROUPING OF HEALTH-EFFECT STUDIES  	    195

  A-IV.   SUMMARY OF THE EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES  	    196

   A-V.   CHANGES IN LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE DUE TO A CHANGE IN
            DURATION OF EXPOSURES OF SMOKERS AND NONSMOKERS
            TO 0.37 PPM OZONE (A6)  	    203
                                  i
  A-VI.   EFFECT OF OZONE AND EXERCISE ON THE PULMONARY
            FUNCTION OF MALE ADULTS	    206
                                                 s

 A-VII.   SEQUENTIAL EXPOSURE OF OZONE, NITROGEN DIOXIDE
            AND CARBON MONOXIDE TO ADULT MALES*  .'	    208

A-VIII.   EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES: GROUP 1 - CORRELATION
            STUDIES	.'	    211

  A-IX.   EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES: GROUP 2 - CROSS-
            SECTIONAL STUDIES	    215

   A-X.   EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES: GROUP 3 - LONGITUDINAL
            STUDIES	    218

  A-XI.   SOME OF THE ACCEPTABLE METHODS FOR MONITORING OF
            GASEOUS AIR POLLUTANTS  	    222

 A-XII.   DISTRIBUTION OF THE USE OF PULMONARY FUNCTION
            TESTS IN THE STUDIES REVIEWED	    224
                                 IX

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A-XIII.  PROPORTION OF HYPERACTIVE POPULATIONS  IN  SELECT
           EXPERIMENTAL AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
           STUDIES	    229

A-XIV.  RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT OF THE HEALTH-EFFECT
           STUDIES	    232

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                           LIST OF FIGURES


FIGURE                                                           PAGE

    1.   A system for air quality management	    10

    2.   Representation of relative uncertainty in
           processes and phenomena 	    19

    3.   Representation of relative uncertainty in
           data bases	    22

    4.   Representation of relative extent of knowledge
           of processes, phenomena and data bases
           associated with the air quality
           management system 	    24

    5.   Map of Chicago air quality control region
         (AQCR number 67, Illinois-Indiana)   	    31

    6.   Popex flow diagram	    37

    7.   Plume model   	    42

    8.   Airport locations in Chicago AQCR for wind data ...    46

    9.   Wind roses for different locations in Chicago
           AQCR for June 5, 1975 (9 am to 9 pm)	    48

   10.   Wind roses for different locations in Chicago
           AQCR for June 7, 1975 (9 am to 9 pm)  	    49

   11.   Wind roses for different locations in Chicago
           AQCR for July 29, 1975 (9 am to 9 pm)	    50

   12.   Wind roses for different locations in Chicago
           AQCR for July 27, 1975 (6 am to 9 pm)	    51

   13.   Wind directions at three-hour intervals for
           different locations in Chicago AQCR
           on July 27,  1975	    52

   14.    Pollutant trajectory in a lake breeze,
           adapted from (32)	    54
                                XI

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    15.    Wind rose data  for  Dresden nuclear power
            station of  Commonwealth Edison
            Company,  1972 (33)   	    55

    16.    Flow diagram: development of dispersion
            submodel	    58

    17.    Flow diagram: development of population
            submodel	    63

    18.    Sensitivity analysis and improvement of
            population  submodel  	    65

    19.    Concentration versus averaging time for
            sulfur  dioxide  	    71

    20.    Standards and tolerance factors for
            sulfur  dioxide  	    73

    21.    Flow diagram  of popex  computer model   	    87

    22.    Locations of  the centers of counties in the
            Chicago AQCR  and  their x and y
            coordinates	    91

    23.    Indices and variables	; . . .  .   155

    24.    Plots of  stack  heights versus PO/PI for
            different counties   	   172

    25.    Relationships of PO/PI versus population
            density for different stack heights  	   174

APPENDIX A

  A-l.   Dose-response curve for two hours of exposure
            to ozone  for adults	   200

  A-2.   Effect of combination of cumulative exposures
           and duration of exposures on four "reactive"
           adult males (A8)   	   202

  A-3.   Dose-response curve for ozone: effect of
           durations of exposures  	   204

  A-4.    Dose-response curves for adult males for
           six-hours of exposure to SO2	   209

  A-5.    Dose-response curve  of nitrogen dioxide for
           children of age eleven years	   214


                                xii

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                               SUMMARY









      The  goal  of this  research was  to develop quantitative models for




 relating  emissions  of  air pollutants to  their effects on people and




 to  use  the  methodology for a determination of the relative importance




 of  sources  of  air pollution.




      The  quantitative  methodology for the ranking of sources devel-




 oped  in this project includes  considerations of the dispersion of air




pollutants, exposure of people,  and  the subsequent health effects.




 The computer model, called popex, consists of three submodels: dis-




 persion,  population exposure,  and health effects.  Optimal sophisti-




 cation  and  balance  of  details  among the  submodels were emphasized in




 this  integrative computer model.




      The  popex model was  applied to sources of air pollution in the




 Chicago Air Quality Control Region.  The results show that seventeen




 out of  a  total of 227   categories of sources contribute nearly 80




 percent to  the total air-pollution-population-effect problem.  These




 seventeen categories include commonly recognized large sources, such




 as  automobiles,  large  utility  and industrial boilers, as well as less-




 recognized  categories,  such as  solvent evaporation from industrial




 operations  involving surface coatings.




     A  sensitivity  analysis of  the  popex model revealed that the re-




 sults of  the popex model  are most sensitive to parameters related to




health  effects.   Other parameters,  including the ones related to the






                                xiii

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dispersion of air pollutants, were found to have a lesser influence




on the outcome of the model.  Past studies related to health-effects




of air pollution, specifically studies in which health-effects were




characterized by the pulmonary function tests, were reviewed and ana-




lyzed for possible improvements in the modeling of health effects.




     Finally, based on the methodology developed in this project, a




simpler method for evaluating relative impacts of a smaller number




of sources is proposed.
                                xiv

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                             CHAPTER  I









                             INTRODUCTION               /






STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM




     Air pollution  causes many deleterious effects, the most important




of which is its adverse impact on human health.  There are numerous




sources of air pollution, and in order to reduce health risks to the




exposed human population, emissions of air pollutants from these sources




have to be controlled.




     For an efficient strategy for control of air pollutant emissions,




a system for quantitatively  relating emissions to their health effects




is necessary.  Air  quality and its health-effect implications are ex-




tremely complex functions of many variables, and such a quantitative




methodology, despite the obvious need, does not exist.  The significant




areas of difficulty which underscore the lack of availability of quanti-




tative methodology  include:  (a) the duration of varying levels of con-




centration of air pollutants to which people are exposed cannot be




precisely estimated, and (b) significant uncertainty exists in the




quantification of the health effects of exposure to air pollution.




     In this research some of these difficulties are addressed.




Modeling of air pollution-population exposures and evaluation of their




health effects for prioritization of sources of air pollution comprises




this dissertation.




                                   1

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 OBJECTIVES




      The aim of this research was to develop and to use a "first genera-




 tion" quantitative methodology for determination of the relative impor-




 tance of sources of air pollution.  The objectives of this study were




 as  follows:




      1.  Construct a mathematical model which relates source emissions




 to  population-pollutant exposures.  This computerized model should in-




 clude air pollution emission, meteorologic,  spatial, population, and




 health-effect parameters.




      2.  Use this model to assign rank-priority to sources of air




 pollution.




      3.  Perform sensitivity analysis or analyze the model for sensiti-




 vity of its results to changes in input parameters.  Study in-depth the




 sensitive parameters thus identified.







 DEFINITIONS




 Air  Pollution




      Air pollution  is  defined as  the presence in the atmosphere of one




 or more  contaminants  (dust,  fumes, gas, mist, odor, smoke, or vapor) in




 quantities, of  characteristics, and of duration such as to be injurious




 to human, plant or  animal  life, or to property, or which unreasonably




 interferes with the comfortable enjoyment of life and property  (1).




 The  following air pollutants are  included in this study: particulate




matter, PM; sulfur  dioxide,  SO2;  nitrogen oxides, NOX; hydrocarbons,




HC; carbon monoxide, CO; and oxidants,  Ox.   The first five of these are

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considered as primary pollutants or the pollutants which are directly




emitted by sources of air pollution.  Secondary pollutants, like oxi-




dants, are formed within the atmosphere from primary pollutants and




other substances through a set of complex chemical reactions.




     There are numerous sources of air pollution.  Both point sources




 (which are rather large readily identifiable sources, such as power




plants, petroleum refineries, etc.) and area sources (which represent




collectively a large number of smaller sources distributed over a well-




defined area, such as residential heating) are included.  Air pollutants




emitted by these sources diffuse and decay in the atmosphere.  The




diffusion process is dependent on meteorology and topography of the




region.  Air quality is the result of this diffusion process.  The




diffusion of air pollutants can be simulated to a limited extent by




mathematical modeling.




Health Effects




     The effects of air pollution on personal or community health could




range from eye irritation to acute illness or death (2).  Basically,




two approaches are used in studying health effects of air pollutants:




human and animal experimental studies and epidemiological studies.  The




duration of exposures involved in experimental studies with humans are




generally less than a few days at a time.  Epidemiological studies




enable evaluation of longer-term effects.  The design of the air pollu-




tion epidemiologic studies is difficult; many causative factors could




simultaneously super-impose their impact on end-effects which are simi-




lar to the effects of air pollutants.  Researchers in the past few

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                                                                   4





 years have been able to "isolate" the effects of air pollution on  health




 with varying degrees of success.  Their studies have shown that the




 level of effects depends on many factors including concentrations  of




 the air pollutants, durations of exposures and susceptibility of the




 host.




 Modeling




      Mathematical models consist of sets of mathematical  expressions




 arranged in a logical format.  To obtain a predesignated  output, various




 predefined inputs are fed into the model at various stages.   The mathe-




 matical expressions in the model could be in an analytical or empirical




 form, and they are designed to simulate the process being modeled. The




 use of modeling enables one to predict results of a complex process with




 less time and effort.   Modeling also has two other distinct advantages.




 First,  modeling provides an opportunity to see the interactions between




 directly unrelated parameters.   This allows, one to judge the importance




 of results  of variations in one parameter against others.  A second,




 and generally less well recognized advantage of modeling, is that  it




 shows explicitly the  "missing links" in the whole system  being modeled.







 JUSTIFICATION AND SIGNIFICANCE




     Attempts have been made in the past to model segments of the  air




quality management system,  such as modeling of the dispersion of pol-




lutants in the atmosphere,  modeling of atmospheric reactions related  to




pollutants, etc.   There also have been attempts to model  a large part




of the "overall"  air pollution  system.  .These models have been of

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                                                                   5




 significant  use  for  the  understanding of air pollution.   However,  gene-




 rally,  these models  have considered artificially structured situations




 instead of actual  ones.   In  some  instances,  prior studies have  consid-




 ered  either  real geographic  and topographic  data for  atmospheric dis-




 persion, or  actual population  data  for estimating population exposures.




 Models  which use both  real dispersion and population  data are not  avail-




 able.   Similarly,  models of  health  effects have  been  conspicuously ab-




 sent  from the overall  models of air pollution.




      This research project was aimed at the  construction  of a quantita-




 tive  methodology for determining  the relative importance  of various




 sources of air pollution.  While  many simplifying assumptions were made,




 actual  data  on sources and population were used.   This project  represents




 a  "first generation" attempt to integrate diverse factors.   The results




 of the  methodology and the model  presented  here  are  in the form of a




 ranking of relative  importance of categories of  sources of  air pollu-
                        /


 tion.   These  rankings  could  be directly used in decision making processes




 for determining  the  degree of  control of emissions as well  as in devel-




 oping   priorities  in research  and development related to  the technology




 of control systems.



     It must be  pointed  out  that  at  least two different groups  (3,4)




have performed research  in this area  of  prioritization of sources of




air pollution.   One  study (3)  was restricted to an evaluation of sources


 \        (

of nitrogen oxides.  Their evaluation was based on the sensitivity of




changes in ambient air quality to changes in  the  nitrogen oxides




emissions.   An important limitation of the study  was that the

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                                                                    6




 consideration of atmospheric transformations of nitrogen oxides  to  oxi-




 dants was not included and thus the results of the study are of  a limited




 value.




      Another more useful study performed by Monsanto Research Corporation




 (4) evaluates industrial sources of air pollution.   On this  study in addi-




 tion to the five primary pollutants mentioned earlier,  other toxic  indus-




 trial pollutants were considered.   Atmospheric transformations of pollu-




 tants were not considered.  Similarly,  only nonmetallurgical industrial




 sources were evaluated.




      In the present study all known sources of the five pollutants: PM,




 SO?, NO ,  CO,  HC are evaluated.   Considerations of formation of  oxidants
   £•    X



 are also included.   The  approach and the scope of  this study are briefly




 described  below.







 APPROACH AND SCOPE




     An  attempt  is  made  in this  dissertation to combine numerous factors—




 all  related  to air  pollution and its effects—for  the development of a




 quantitative methodology which enables  the  evaluation of the relative




 importance of different  sources  of  air  pollution.   The approach  that was




 used toward  achieving this goal  was that of systems analysis. Briefly,




 the steps included  in this approach were (a)  defining the system,  (b)




 analysis and simplification of the  technical information relevant to the




system as well as to parts of  the system,  (c)  modeling or integration of




this information in a systematic and quantitative  manner.




     To  the extent feasible,  reliance  was  placed  on the available  data

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                                                                    7




 and  information.   Where data were not available,  approximations and




 assumptions  were  made.   Gathering of data through survey or  other tech-




 niques was not attempted.   Statistical methods  were  used to  obtain empi-




 rical relationship from complex sets of analytical expressions.




     The  quantitative  system or the  model thus  developed was applied to




 actual conditions.   The results were then analyzed and  interpreted with




 special reference to the simplifications and  assumptions used  in  devel-




 oping the model.







 FORMAT OF PRESENTATION




     A system for air quality management is defined  and many uncertain-




 ties associated with this  system are described  in Chapter II.   Chapter




 III analyzes some of these uncertainties,  provides a rationale  for




 construction of the model  and includes a brief  description of  the  popu-




 lation-exposure model called "popex".   The details on the construction




 of various submodels are given  in the subsequent  three  chapters.   Chap-




 ter VII describes the computer  algorithm and  the  input  data.




     The  results  of the popex model  in the form of rankings  of  sources




 are given in Chapter VIII.   Chapter  IX provides sensitivity  analysis.




 Implications of the popex  methodology,  limitations of the popex model




 arid discussion  of future projects are given in  Chapter  X.  The  conclu-




 sions of  this research  work are presented  in  Chapter XI.




     A reader whose primary interests are  in  the  actual rankings of




 sources of air  pollution are referred directly  to Chapters VIII and XI.




A reader  interested in  methodology should first  read  Chapters II,  III,

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                                                                   8




and VIII to XI and then refer to the three chapters  (IV to VI) on




construction of submodels as necessary.  Individuals interested in




modeling of health effects are referred to Chapters VI, IX, and to the




Appendix A.

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                              CHAPTER II




                     AIR QUALITY  MANAGEMENT SYSTEM



     The goal  of  this  dissertation research was  to develop methodologies


which  can  assess,  in a systematic  and quantitative way, the adverse


effects of air pollution and  relate them back  to individual sources of


air pollution.  Thus,  a definition of the system and understanding of


uncertainties  in  this  system  were  considered to  be of significant im-


portance.   In  this chapter, a system for air quality management is de-


fined  and  uncertainties in this  system are discussed.


     An all-inclusive  system  for the management  of air quality would


involve  many  disciplines, such as  physical and life sciences;, engineering,


and economics,  etc.  This system would also include the administrative


and regulatory aspects of management.  Such a  definition of the system


is, no doubt,  too  broad for this research.  A  somewhat narrower defini-


tion,  which is  more  relevant  to  the goals of this work, is given in the


next section.   A brief discussion  of uncertainties in the air quality


system is  also  included later in this chapter.



DEFINITION OF A SYSTEM FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT


     Figure 1 gives  a  basic idea of different  aspects of air quality


management.  As shown  in Figure  1,  emissions from various sources of
                                                 i

air pollution,  the meteorology of  the region,  and the chemical reactions


of the pollutants  in the atmosphere primarily  influence the air quality


                                    9

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      SOURCE
    EMISSIONS
   ANXN
    , COSTS
\x\\\\\
\\N\\\
   ENFORCEMENT
    EMISSION
    CONTROLS
                             ATMDSPHERIC
                              CHEMISTRY
                        \\\\\\
                        \ \ MONITORING
                        \\V\\\\\
                              STANDARDS
   pollutant pathways

   part of the  system not considered in this research

   Figure 1.  A system for air quality management.
                                                       METEOROLOGY
AIR QUALITY
RECEPTORS
(PEOPLE)
  EFFECTS
  (HEALTH)
                                                                              ,
                                                                              \
              DAMAGES
                                                                                    \ \ \ \
                      v
                      \

-------
                                                                   11


 of  that  region.   The air quality at the receptor locations,  or the air
                              i
 quality  experienced by individuals, depends on many factors.   The "loca-


 tion"  of an individual with reference to distances  from various emission


 sources  is  important.   This "location" parameter is dynamic  in nature


 and exposures  to pollutants would depend on the length  of  time spent by


 the individual at his residence,  place of work, in  shopping, and so on.


 Other  factors,  such as differences in indoor and outdoor air quality,


 also influence the dosages  of exposure to air pollutants.  These repeated
                                        ,•

exposures cause varied effects on the health and well-being of  the indivi-


 dual.  Exposure to air pollutants also cause damage to  plants,  animals,


 and property.   Effects other than on human health are not  included in


 this system but could be added at any time in the future.


     The health effects are dependent on the degree and nature  of air


 pollutant dosages as well as on other factors including age, suscepti-


 bility,  and work load of the individual.   As the box at the bottom of


 Figure 1 indicates,  these health effects are responsible for "damages".


 These  health-related damages are  not limited to direct  consequences of


 ill  health  but would include indirect costs such as decrease in life-


 span of  an  individual,  or an increased possibility  of a future  disease


 due  to air  pollution.


     The efforts in  the direction of reducing air pollution have been


 underway for many years.  However,  the enactment of the Clean Air Act


Amendments  in  1970 has  helped to  make the process proceed  faster and be


better organized.  The  shaded portion of  Figure 1 shows a  major part of


the  endeavor to  reduce  air  pollution through the monitoring of  the air

-------
                                                                  12




 quality,  establishment  of  standards, and enforcement  and maintenance of




 the standards.   In  order to meet the ambient or emission standards, the




 air pollution emissions are controlled by  installing  control devices on




 the existing processes, or through process modifications.  Another ap-




 proach,  not shown in  Figure 1, would be through better  land use policies.




 Generally,  there is a positive cost associated with most of these mecha-




 nisms to reduce  air pollution and at every level of control; ideally,




 this control cost has to be compared with  the negative  cost of better




 health due  to reduction in air pollution.  In the remainder of this




 dissertation,  the shaded part of Figure 1  is excluded and only the




 unshaded portion is addressed.




      Although the air quality management system was described here in




 a very simple way,  there are many uncertainties associated with most




 of the boxes and arrows depicted on Figure 1.






 UNCERTAINTIES  IN THE  AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM




 Pollutant Transport Mechanisms




      Meteorological dispersion models with various levels of sophis-




 tication  can be  employed for the estimation of pollutant concentrations




 at receptor sites (5,6).   Such models all  require some  form of calibra-




 tion  and  have to be verified for, complex urban situations.  Compounding




 the difficulty, the large  amounts of prerequisite meaningful meteoro-




logical data are virtually  nonexistent.




Interaction of Pollutants




     In the atmosphere,  pollutants react with other pollutants as well

-------
                                                                  13

as with other materials.  These reactions could produce more-potent or

less-potent intermediates, leading to particulate matter which is even-

tually removed from the atmosphere, or to innocuous decay end products,

such as carbon dioxide and water.  Some  systems are understood better

than others.  Oxidant formation has been the subject of intensive study

(7,8) but similar work is just beginning to shed light on the mechanisms

involved in the atmospheric conversion of sulfur dioxide  (9) and nitro-

gen oxides into possibly more toxic sulfates and nitrates.  None of the
                                   ?   •              '
systems are understood sufficiently to permit the reliable prediction

of actual atmospheric reaction rates.

Source-Receptor Geometry;

     In order to arrive at an estimate of pollutant dosage, source-

receptor geometry must be considered.  Residences are not distributed

evenly throughout a region, and inhabitants do not spend all their time
                            s
near home.  Exposures to pollutants during travel in an automobile  (10)

could be significantly different from either the air quality at the

starting point or at the destination.  Similarly, pedestrians and street-

workers in a downtown business district  are exposed to high levels of

air pollution (11).  There are also differentials between indoor and out-

door air quality  (12), and these are only now increasingly being recog-

nized (13,14).  Furthermore, monitoring  stations which, of course,  can

not adequately represent overall pollutant exposures, often are in a

location which is totally unrepresentative of the air quality of that

region.

-------
                                                                  14



 Health Effects


     Numerous experimental and epidemiologic studies have been performed



 on characterization of the health effects of air pollution.   Most of



 these studies are able to show a qualitative relationship between in-
                                                  V


 crease in air pollution and increase in adverse effects.



      In the experimental studies the effects have been studied at dif-



 ferent organizational levels:  biochemical,  ultrastructural,  tissue,



 organ, etc.  Given the complexity,  it is not surprising that  there are



 numerous uncertainties associated with effects  at all  levels.   Ideally,



 it would also be of great value if the concentrations  of pollutants



 were known at which the normal homeostatic and  compensatory mechanisms



 are no longer adequate and some very difficult-to-detect (sub-subclinical)



 effects are initiated (15).   It appears that these types of studies  have



 been performed by Soviet scientists (16,17),  but exact implications  of



 the Soviet studies,  when compared with other studies,  remain  unclear.



      Compounding these difficulties is the fact that exposure to  air



 pollution is seldom comprised of a  single pollutant.   The effects of a



 combination of pollutants or  a pollutant with other environmental stresses



 could  be  synergistic,  additive,  or  in a rare case, even inhibitory.   The



 uncertainties  associated with a single pollutant are magnified when  mul-



 tiple pollutant exposures, as in the case of ambient air pollution,  are



 involved.



     An even larger number of variables are  generally  included in epide-



miologic studies.  The design of air pollution  epidemiologic  studies is



difficult.  Two of the specific  uncertainties related  to these studies

-------
                                                                  15




include difficulty associated with quantification of long-term effects




of pollutants at the levels near the ambient concentration of pollutants




and characterization of^segments of the population which may be hyper-




susceptible to environmental stressors, including air pollutants.

-------
                             CHAPTER  III









                               MODELING







 INTRODUCTION




      The aim of  this project was to construct a model which relates




 source emissions to their effects on  people and to use this model to




 assign a rank-priority  to sources of  air pollution.  In order to relate




 emissions to health effects, intermediate steps of atmospheric trans-




 port and atmospheric conversion as well as population-pollution expo-




 sure need to be  included in the model.  Quite often these intermediate




 steps or submodels are  so large and complex that each qne of the sub-




 models may require the  full thrust of an investigator's efforts.




      Atmospheric dispersion of air pollutants has been a subject of




 numerous investigations and the models for dispersion are available




 (18,19).   Due to the sheer size and complexities of such models, the




 application  of these existing models  for ranking sources is difficult.




 Similarly, the exposure model must include diverse phenomena such as




 atmospheric  dispersion of pollutants  and their health effects.  For a




model  to be  useful, the accuracy of one part of the model must be




balanced with the remainder.  Simplifications in the complex pollution-




population-effect interactions are also necessary to have a workable




model.  Thus, a direct use of existing dispersion models was ruled out




for this project.




                                 16

-------
                                                                  17




     In this chapter,  uncertainties mentioned  in  the previous chapter




are analyzed, the desired  optimum degree of complexity of the overall




model is discussed,  and  the  rationale  for the  selection of parameters




and their data bases for modeling is briefly described.  Finally, a




brief description of the model  is included and the simplified flow




diagram of  the model is  explained.







QUANTISATION OF UNCERTAINTIES




     This subjective quantitation of uncertainties is based on the




discussion  of uncertainties  in  the preceding chapter and on the writer's




understanding of the air quality  management system.  It is possible that




different workers could  view these uncertainties  in different ways de-




pending on  their background  as  well as their biases.  However, the




writer feels that even with  differing viewpoints  the basic qualitative




picture of  the quantitative  representation of  uncertainties described




below, will remain essentially  the same.




     Two forms of uncertainties are encountered:  uncertainty associated




with processes or phenomena  and uncertainty in data.  An example of the




former is the precise  mathematical estimation  of  concentration of a non-




reacting pollutant,  in that  the process or mechanism of dispersion has




to be well  understood  and  be mathematically definable.  As an example




of the latter, adequate  data for  various parameters, such as rates of




emission, location of  sources,  and several meteorological parameters,




are required when a  dispersion  model is used.  Accuracy of estimation




of concentration would then  depend on two factors; first, how close

-------
                                                                  18

 does the mathematical  simulation  or  the model  of  the process resemble

 the actual one,  and second,  whether  qualitatively acceptable and  quanti-

 tatively sufficient data  are available for  input  into-the model.
                                                            s
 Uncertainty in Phenomena

      The modeling of population-pollutant exposure and  health  effects

 for setting source-control priorities basically requires the knowledge

 of concentration of air pollutants at various  locations, number of

 people exposed along with the levels of concentration to which they are

 exposed and the  consequent health effects.   In other words, three pro-

 cesses or phenomena have  to  be well  characterized:  dispersion  (including

 atmospheric conversions), sourcer-receptor geometry, and the dose-res-

 ponse relationships of the health effects.

      A scale of  zero to ten  is used  to characterize relative uncertainty,

 with zero reflecting the  least and ten the  highest degree of uncertainty.

 As mentioned earlier,  this quantitation of  uncertainties is necessarily

 subjective and is attempted  only  with the goal of achieving a  balance of

 complexities and sophistication in the different  aspects of the model.

      Figure 2  ranks the degree of uncertainty  related to the processes.

 Health  effects are  rated  ten on the  uncertainty scale since there are

 no  generalized dose-response data available for effects at air pollutant

 concentrations approaching ambient conditions.  On the  other hand,  dis-

 persion of  a non-reacting (or very slowly reacting) pollutant  from  a

 single source or multiple sources in flat topographic regions  can be

 estimated with reasonable accuracy (20).  Thus dispersion is rated  at

one on the uncertainty scale which implies  that there is a  finite but

-------
     10  I—
4J

•H

-------
                                                                  20

 quite small uncertainty associated with simple dispersion of  the  pollu-


 tant.  The mechanism of oxidant formation is  less well  established than


 dispersion.  Models for  prediction of  formation of oxidant are avail-


 able (21).  However,  the accuracy of estimation is less than  that for


 estimation of simple dispersion.   Oxidant formation is  thus ranked at


 three.   Mechanisms for formation of secondary pollutants such as  sul-

 fates are not as well understood as for formation of oxidantt,,  but

 some correlations between sulfates and  their  precursors are available

 (22).  Since formation of secondary pollutants other than oxidants can

 be estimated to a limited extent,  and few mathematical  relationships


 for health effects are available,  formation of secondary pollutants .is


 rated at seven, or in between oxidant formation and health effects.


      The dynamics of  source-receptor geometry poses a unique  problem

 for uncertainty rating,  since a model for source-receptor geometry is

 not difficult to visualize and  basic data, i.e.,  population and source


 data, for construction of such  a model  are available.   However, little
                                                          I
 work has been done to develop a generalized model in this area.  Thus,

 modeling source-receptor  geometry  is feasible,  but since the  models are


 not available,  an uncertainty rating of three is assigned.


 Uncertainty  in  Data


     Three major  data-bases are required for  modeling of pollutant


 exposure and health effects: emissions,  meteorology, and population


 characteristics.  Of these three,  the data on population are  best known.


 In the United States, the census of  population has been taken every ten


years since 1790  (23).  Over the years,  methods of taking a census have

-------
                                                                  21




been refined and machinery  for  good statistical  quality  control  has




been established.   Thus,  among  the  three  data  bases,  it  is by  far  the




best both  in terms  of  completeness  as well  as  in terms of quality  of




the data.   Population  data-base is  assigned the  best  rating of one on




the uncertainty scale  of, again,  zero to  ten (Figure  3).




     The National Emissions Data  System  (NEDS) of U.  S.  Environmental




Protection Agency  (EPA) has been  in operation  for the last few years.

                                 \


NEDS systems compiles  emission  inventories  based on information  supplied




by local and state  air pollution  control  agencies.  Emissions  from the




individual sources  are estimated  based on emission factors (24)  for each




of the sources and  on  operating information.   EPA has rated these  emis-




sion factors, depending on  their  accuracy,  as  A  through  E.  An emission




factor rating of A  for a  source implies- that the emission factor is




based on measured emissions data, process data,  and engineering  analy-




sis.  Thus, little  uncertainty  is associated with estimating emissions




for a source which  has emission factor rating  of A.  A rating of E
                                                    • i    '•



implies very little data  exists for the particular emission factor, and




estimation of emissions based on  such a factor is subject to a large




error.  Other information such  as process weights, load  factors, capa-
                                                  1   V



cities, etc., required in addition  to the emission factors for the  esti-




mation of  emissions may have some associated inherent errors.  Thus,




even though emission data from  NEDS represent  the best available data




in terms of completeness and quality of data,  it will rank poorer  than




that of the census  of  population.




     Meteorological data scores poorer on the  uncertainty scale,

-------
      10
4J
c

-------
                                                                  23



especially in terms of  "quantity"  (Figure  3).  For many years,  the



National Weather Service has maintained  a  network of'continuously opera-



ting weather stations.  Similarly, many  of the air quality monitoring



stations also monitor certain meteorological parameters.  However, there



are a very limited number of such  stations in any single region.  Thus,
                                                     ,-


although good temporal  (i.e., time varying) data are available  for a



particular site, there  is certainly a lack of spatial meteorological



data for predictive dispersion modeling.



Analysis



     "Extent of known"  for the processes and the data-bases discussed



above can be estimated  from the following  expression:



                                           1

                    Extent known  «  	

                                     uncertainty



This expression is used to transform uncertainty ratings in Figures 2



and 3 to "extent known" in Figure 4.  From Figure 4 it can be inferred



that even if good data  are available on population, considerations of



source-receptor geometry limit the extent  to which population data could



be used.  Similarly, lack of spatial meteorological data as well as of



photochemical mechanisms governs how precise a dispersion model can be



constructed.  Finally,  health effects, which are the least known consi-



deration in the model, put a constraint on modeling of all the other



processes as well as the use of the data bases.  Thus, an efficient and



useful model could be relatively simple in nature and attain the accu-



racy or validity contained by the uncertainty in health-effects data.



     Specific parameters and mathematical  relations for the construction

-------
      1.0
o
a
a

-------
                                                                  25





of the model are discussed  in  the  following  section.






RATIONALE




     As discussed  in  the previous  sections,  there  is a large degree of




uncertainty associated with most of  the mathematical or empirical rela-




tionships among the parameters for relating  emission to effects.  The




underlying rationale  in construction was that the  relations used in




the models should  be  only as complex as warranted  and undue complexity




should be avoided.  Availability of  adequate input data was also an




important constraint  in modeling.




     Selecting an  appropriate  time-base for  the model is important for




the balance of degree of details.  Selecting a time-base means to de-




cide whether the model should  estimate hourly, daily, weekly, or annual




exposures or whether  the model should be dynamic,  i.e., time-varying,




in nature.  The time-base would depend on availability of data for time-




implicit parameters and empirical  relations  as well as their projected




use in the model.




     Rates of emissions are available only in terms of annual emissions




or in tons per year.  Logically, the data on air pollutant emissions




forms a basis for  a system or  a model for priority-ranking of sources.




Thus, even if data for other parameters, including meteorological, are




available for a much  finer time-basis, such  as hourly or daily, etc.,




the annual or yearly  basis for the model appears to be more practical.




     Table I lists some of the many  parameters that could be included




in the model.   It shows for each of  the parameters the type of data

-------
                             TABLE I.  PARAMETERS FOR EXPOSURE MODELING
Parameter
 (1) Desirable form
(2)  Availabi-    (3)  Form  used  in
    lity  of  (1)      the model
(a) Emissions
Sources
Types of pollutants
Rate
Stack height
Plume height
Individual
Five
Amount/hour
Actual
Actual
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Individual
Five
Tons/year
Actual
Zero
(b) Meteorology
    Diffusivity
    Wind data
In the three orthogonal
directions

Hourly windspeed and
directional data for
several locations
    No
    No
a  a 1 for a single
stability C defined
by Turner (25)
Symmetrical wind rose
(c) Source-Receptor geometry
    Population

    Source locations
Census tract
x.
     coordinates
(d)  Atmospheric chemistry related to oxidant formation
    Reaction mechanism       Detailed mechanism of
\                            formation and decay
    Rate constants
    Hydrocarbon emissions
(e)  Health effects
    Dose-response
All required rate constants
HC emissions with reactivity
classifications
Generalized dose-response
curves
    Yes

    Yes


    Partial
    Partial
    No
    No
County, ring of
average exposures'2
County centers2
Equimolar NO2 and HC
stochiometric time-
independent relation3
Not used
Total hydrocarbons
                Tolerance  factors
                                                                                                    to

-------
                      TABLE I.  PARAMETERS FOR EXPOSURE MODELING  (CONTINUED)
l<3y az are the standard deviations of distribution of pollutant concentrations in a plume.


2See Chapter V on the development of population submodel.


 See discussion of photochemical considerations in Chapter VI.
                                                                                                     K)
                                                                                                     -o

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                                                                  28

 that would be desirable for precise modeling as well as whether such


 data are  commonly available  (Column 1 and 2 in Table I).  Column  3 of


 Table  I shows the form of the parameters that were  included  in the model.


 An explanation  for selection of parameters follows.



 SELECTION OF PARAMETERS AND DESCRIPTION

     This population-pollution exposure model is called popex for short.

 It includes factors related to source emissions, meteorological disper-


 sion,  population distribution, and pollutant toxicity.  The geographic

 area used in the model is the Chicago Air Quality Control Region  (AQCR)

 but the model could be readily adapted to any other region.  Reasons for


 the selection of the Chicago AQCR are given later in this chapter.

 Emissions


     Sources are treated individually in the model.  In order to  pre-

 sent results in terms of priority rankings, the pollution-population-

 exposure  contributions for these sources are grouped into approapriate

 source categories.  (Single sources at specific sites are referred to


 as  "sources", and "source-categories" refer to predetermined categories
                                                             *  v
 of  these  sources.  See Chapter VII for details.)  The emission inven-


 tory of five pollutants supplied by the National Emissions Data System


 (NEDS)  of EPA is used.  Actual stack height for each of the  sources  is


used.   It would have been desirable to include plume height,' however,


no data for estimation of plume rise were available.

Meteorology


     Comprehensive spatial meteorological data are  generally unavailable.

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                                                                  29




To  circumvent this lack of data,  some simplifying assumptions  were




made.   First, a single windspeed, an annual average,  is used for  all




sources.   Similarly,  a symmetric  wind rose is  assumed.   Next,  a single




class  of  stability, c, as defined by Turner (25)  is used.




     The  basis for the assumption of a symmetric  wind rose  is  dis-




cussed in the section on dispersion submodels.  Other assumptions,




along  with the sensitivities of various meteorological  parameters, are




evaluated in Chapter IX.




Source-Receptor Geometry




     Ideally each of the source locations  and  their effects  on each of




the population-receptors should be considered.  However, due to size




considerations,  the computer model would become unmanageable.  Some




simplifying assumptions were necessary.  In popex, all  the sources




have been located at the center of each county and the  population is




assumed to be uniformly distributed.   This representation implies, as




in  reality,  that some of the people are located much  nearer  to sources,




whereas the majority of them are  located at some  distance away from




sources.   The mathematical model  which was developed  for such  a situa-




tion is described in Chapter V.




Photochemistry of Oxidant Formation




     The  exact mechanism of formation of oxidant  is still not  known.




More importantly,  the emission  inventory for one  of the precursors of




oxidant,  namely  reactive hydrocarbons,  is  not available.  In popex a




simple  equimolar stochiometric  reaction equation  is used for estimation




of  formation  of  oxidant.

-------
                                                                  30


 Health Effects


      Modeling of health effects  requires  knowledge  of  cause-effect


 relationships.  These  empirical  relations may be  in the  form of  an


 increased' incidence of certain disease  as a  function of  air  pollution


 dosages or in terms of the  effect of  air  pollution  as  measured by cer-


 tain clinical indicators.   No such generalized air  pollution-health-


 effect relationships were available at  the beginning of  this project


 in September 1973.   Air quality  standards which are based on health


 effects of pollutants  can form the basis  for health-effect modeling.


 Popex uses extrapolated air quality standards or  tolerance factors.


 The detailed method is given in  Chapter VI.


 Selection of the AQCR


      The United States has  been  divided into 247  AQCRs by EPA.   There
                                                     i   ••   ;

 are many reasons for the selection of the Chicago AQCR for the popex


 model (Figure 5).   Popex model for the  ranking of sources includes  con-


 siderations of source  emissions  as well as those  of population receptors.


 Thus,  the AQCR selected for.modeling  should  not only have sources that


 are representative  of  nationwide air  pollutant emissions but also should


 include  counties which are  significantly  different  from  each other  in


 their population densities.



 Emissions.-Emissions from sources in  the  Chicago  AQCR  are generally quite


well representative of  the  nationwide emissions.  Table  II compares emis-


 sion data  for  the United States  and for the  Chicago AQCR (26).   The emis-



sions are given in terms of percentages of the total for each of the two



cases.  There are some  differences in the percent emissions  of Chicago

-------
                                                         31
  Me HENRY
                   LAKE
     Elgin
     KANE
    Aurora O
   KENDALL
   GRUNDY
               DU PAGE
                Joliet
                   WILL
                               Waukegan
                                            LAKE  MICHIGAN
                                   Ol Chicago
                 COOK
                           O Kankakee
                    KANKAKEE
                                        H LAKK
                   10     20
                     miles
                       30
                                         PORTER
Figure 5.
Map of the Chicago air quality control region
(AQCR number 67, Illinois-Indiana).

-------
                TABLE  II.   COMPARISON  OF UNITED STATES  AND  CHICAGO AQCR EMISSIONS
                                                                      Emissions
Categories
                                           U.S.  as  percent of the  total
                                           (202, 567,000  tons/year)
Chicago AQCR as percent
of the total (7,477,000
tons/year)
Fuel combustion
External combustion
Residential fuel - area
Electric generation - point
Industrial fuel - area
- point.
Commercial-institutional - area
- point
Internal combustion - point
Electric generation
Industrial fuel
Commercial -institutional
Engine- testing
Industrial process - point
Chemical manufacturing
Food/agriculture
Primary metals
Secondary metals
Mineral products
Petroleum industry
Wood products
Evaporation
Metal fabrication
Leather products


1.1
13.3
1.8-
. 4.7
1.1
0.2 •

0.03
0.5
0.001
0.001

4.7
0.2
4.7
0.9
2.9
5.4
0.7
1.4
0.003
0.0002


2.7
8.4
3.6
17.4
0.8
0.3

nl1
nl
nl
nl

0.5
0.1
6.3
0.6
2.1
8.7
0.0001
-, -. w
2.3 NJ
0.01
nl

-------
TABLE II. COMPARISON OF UNITED STATES AND CHICAGO AQCR EMISSIONS (CONTINUED)
                                                                          Emissions
                                              U.S. as percent of the total         Chicago AQCR as percent
                                              (202,567,000 tons/year               of the total (7,477,000
   Categories                                                                      tons/year)


Industrial process - point continued

  Textile manufacturing                                 0.004                               nl
  Inprocess  fuel                                        0.1                                 0.007
  Other/not  classified                                  0.1                                 0.1

Solid waste  disposal

  Government -  point                                    0.2                                 0.4
  Residential - area                        ,            2.1                                 1.4
  Commercial-institutional - area                       0.2                                 0.2
                           - point                      0.01                                0.1
  Industrial -  area                                     0.9                                 2.8
             -  point                                    0.5                                 0.2
Transportation  -  area

  Land  vehicles
     Gasoline                                          47.2                                36 .'0
     Diese-l fuel                                        1-.8     -                            1.5
  Aircraft                                              1.0                                 0.5
  Vessels                                               0:4                                 0.1
  Gas handling  evaporation loss                         0.5                                 0.4

Miscellaneous - area
  Slash burning                                        0.5                                 nl
  Solvent evaporation loss                              0.8                                 2.5

Total    	100.0	100.0	
     = none listed

-------
                                                                  34

 AQCR as compared to the nationwide  numbers,  but,  generally,  there  is a

 good agreement in the percent  emissions  for  the  same  categories.   The two

 categories that are relatively large by  themselves  as well as  the  cate-

 gories for which there are  large differences are  fuel-combustion-indus-

 trial-point (U.S.,  4.7; Chicago, 17.4) and industrial-process-chemical

 manufacturing (U.S.,  4.5; Chicago,  0.5).  The large difference in  the

 industrial fuel category is primarily due to an error1 in the  emissions

 of a single source.   After  correcting for the error,  the percent emis-

 sions of the industrial fuel category for Chicago AQCR is 5.3  which is

 comparable to 4.7 for the U.S.  All the  emissions data reported sub-

 sequent to Table II and used   in this research includes this correction.

      It appears that industries involving the manufacture of chemicals

 are less in number  in the Chicago area.  Thus, in this case, the results

 of the popex model  which is applied to Chicago AQCR data would tend to

 underestimate the nationwide importance  of emissions  from chemical

 industries.

      Some  of the source-categories  appearing on national emissions data

 such as  internal combustion, slash  burning,  industries involving wood,

 leather, and textile  products,  etc., are virtually  nonexistent in  the
-'-After examining the detailed emissions data referred to  in  the  section
on input data  (Chapter VII), it was found that a single source using
process gas located in Lake County in Indiana had unusually   large emis-
sions (about 350 times the emissions of similar sources of equal capa-
cities) .  In fact the NOX emissions of this single source were 789,000
tons per year or about 60 percent of the total emissions  of  1,348,000
tons per year for the entire Chicago AQCR.  This apparent error  was
corrected by using average values of emissions of similar sources in
the same county.  This correction also agrees with the more  recently
9btained emission totals for the eleven counties from NEDS.

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                                                                  35





Chicago area.  However, emissions  from these  categories represent less




than 2 percent of the national  emissions on a mass basis.  Consequently,




these categories would be  relatively unimportant even if they were pre-




sent in the Chicago area.




     An additional point in  favor  of the selection of the Chicago AQCR




was that it was one of the few  AQCRs for which nearly complete emissions




data were available at the start of this project in September 1973.




Population.-Counties included in Chicago AQCR range from the densely




populated urban area of Cook County  (5753 people/square mile) to the




sparsely populated rural area of Grundy County  (61 people/square mile).




Population densities of the  remaining nine counties lie  between these




two extremes  (Table III).  Heavily industrialized counties include Cook




and Will in Illinois and .Lake in Indiana. • It is interesting to note




that two (Cook and Will) of  the three also are almost at the two ex-




tremes of the population density scale.







FLOW DIAGRAM




     A flow diagram for popex is given in Figure 6.  The emissions of




different pollutants are weighted  by their tolerance factors which are




based on ambient air quality standards, and are combined into one num-




ber (see Chapter VI for more details).  The concentrations of the com-




bined emissions reaching the  receptors are estimated using the dispersion




model whose construction is  described in Chapter IV.




     In calculating inter-county population exposures, county population




has been assumed to be concentrated at the center of its respective

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                                                                  36
           TABLE  III  DEMOGRAPHIC DATA  FOR CHICAGO  AQCR(27)
County
Cook
DuPage
Grundy
Kane
Kankakee
Kendall
Lake
McHenry
Will
Lake
Porter
State
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Population
5,488,328
491 , 882
26,535
251,005
97,250
26,374
382,638
111,555
249,498
546,253
87,114
Area,
sq. miles
954
331
432
520
678
320
457
610
847
513
425
Density
(people/
sq. miles)
5,753
1,486
61
483
143
82
837
183
295
1,065
205
Chicago   AQCR
7,758,432
6,087
1,275

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APPARENT
TOLERANCE
FACTORS
                                  POPULATION SUBMODEL
                                                      for average
                                                       exposures
                                                                     TOLERANCE FACTOR SUBMODEL
                                                                         combined emissions
                                                                         of all the pollutants
  DISPERSION  SUBMODEL
I
                                                                          average concentrations
                                                                        POPULATION-POLLUTION
                                                                        EFFECT
                                                                        PRORATING   OF  EFFECTS
                                                                        TO  INDIVIDUAL  SOURCES
               Figure  6.  Popex flow diagram
                                                                        RANKINGS

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                                                                 38


 county.   The  concentrations of pollutants at these receptor locations

 in each  county  are  calculated for all the sources from all the other

 counties.   The  extent of population exposure is determined by weighting

 the receptor-point  concentration proportional to the population of the

 receptor county.

      In  the case  of self or intra-county pollution  (the pollution emitted

 by a county affecting people in the same county), computation of pollu-

 tion-population exposure is more complex.  A submodel was developed which

 estimates a ring  of average exposure for each source for subsequent cal-

 culation of average exposure to the population in the county.  Details
                                                                     \
 of this  population  submodel are given in Chapter V.

      Finally, the intra-county and inter-county exposures are summed

 for all  counties  in the AQCR.  The pollution-population exposure due to

 all the  sources in  all the counties of the AQCR is then summed.  The

 percent  contribution of each individual source  to the total pollution-

 population  exposure is then back-calculated and is used for assigning

 a  priority-ranking  for each source category.



 DEVELOPMENT OF  SUBMODELS


     As discussed earlier, considerations of dispersion, exposure  to

people and  subsequent health effects of the air pollutants are  included

in the popex model  for ranking of sources.  Each of these three areas

form submodels.   Submodels for dispersion, population exposure, and


health effects are discussed in the following three chapters.   For


each of the submodels, a generalized discussion along with a  review  of

-------
                                                                 39




pertinent literature is given first, followed by a detailed description




of rationale, development and construction of the submodel.

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                           CHAPTER IV


                      DISPERSION SUBMODEL
                                                     l
 INTRODUCTION
      There are  two basic types of dispersion models:  steady state
 models (box and plume models) and unsteady state models, or models
 which have time as one of the variables  (puff model) .  The box model
 is  the simplest and assumed to be a rectangular covered box with de-

 fined dimensions  (28) .  The height of the box is the mixing depth of
 the atmosphere, or the height of the unstable layer in the atmos-

 phere,  in  which pollutants can disperse.  The flow of air is assumed
 to  be in one end of the box and out the other.  The concentration in
 this "box" is given by:
where C is the concentration of air pollutant,
      q0 is the concentration of background air pollution,
      Q is the emissions, g/sec
      D and H are the width and the height of the box, km
and   U is the windspeed, m/sec.
The sources within the box are modeled as a completely-mixed and
dispersed area source.
     Gaussian plume models (18) have been developed  as a more realis-
                                 40

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                                                                  41






 tic  representation of dispersion (Figure 7).   With the plume model,  an




 individual  characterization of each source is possible.   The concen-




 tration,  C,  at any downstream point (x,  y, z)  can be calculated from




 the  following equation:
= 2 Q-UT-V
exp
y z
" ^"-M
2 Uz I
i / y \
2~
2 \ayj
+ exp
-
_ 1 /z+hV
L 2\°* i.
A
                                                           (2)






where  x = distance downwind in the direction  of wind,  km




       y = crosswind distance,  km




       z = height above ground  level,  km




       h = effective source height above the ground  surface, km




       ay,  az  =  the standard deviations  of  the plume concentration




                distribution in the crosswind  direction and in the




                vertical direction, respectively, km.




The total  concentration at a receptor point is  the  sum of the contri-




bution from all the sources plus background concentration.  In a




sophisticated puff model time  variables are included and a simulated




puff can be made to react to altered  weather  conditions  downwind from




a source (29).




     The results obtained from any dispersion model are  completely




dependent  upon  the quality or  reality of the  input  data.  Utilization




of a complex  and time-consuming meteorological  model in  popex could




have increased  the sophistication of  the methodology.  However, in




order to balance  the levels of complexities and accuracies with other

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                  distribution
                  in y  direction
(0,0,0)
Concentration
distribution
in z direction
                                                             (x,-y,z)
                                                             (x,-y,0)
          Figure  7:  Plums irodel

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                                                                 43





aspects of  the methodology,  a  simpler  meteorological model which has




a level of  sophistication beyond that  of a box model was  constructed.






DEVELOPMENT




     A simple dispersion  model,  based  on the  Gaussian plume equation




 2  was developed  for estimating long  term average  concentrations in




concentric  rings surrounding each emission point.   Stack  height and




distances from a source have been retained as variables,  while most




meteorological conditions were held  constant.




     This submodel differes  form other plume  models such  as the Air




Quality Display Model (AQDM) in  one  important aspect:  the submodel




assumes a symmetrical wind rose,  or  that the  wind blows from each




direction for an equal fraction  of time.   The bases for this assump-




tion are discussed in the following  section.




     The assumption of symmetric wind  rose also allows for a simplifi-




cation of the overall dispersion algorithm.   In this submodel, a set




of empirical expressions  were  developed  which are used in conjunction




with equation 2.   The actual procedure for the development and use of




the submodel is discussed later  in this  chapter.




Rationale for Assumption  of  Symmetric  Wind Rose




     The considerations that prompted  the  assumption of symmetric wind




rose were:   (a) A  detailed temporal  wind rose data  for one or two




locations within as AQCR  can not adequately represent the wind rose




data for the AQCR.  Different  locations  within the  AQCR may have dif-




ferent wind roses,  especially  if  the AQCR is  located adjacent to an

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                                                                 44



 ocean or a lake.   Such  spatial wind rose data  are  not  available.


 (b)  There are  variations  in  the wind rose with seasons.  Even  if


 the  wind rose  for  a particular season  is assymmetrical,  the  annual


 averages, especially  the  data averaged for different altitudes, may be


 quite symmetrical.


      Lake Michigan has  considerable influence  on the meteorology of


 the  Chicago AQCR.  Day-time  heating of land  surfaces,  especially


 during the warm seasons,  either strengthens  the onshore  flow of winds


 (lake breeze),  weakens  the offshore flow, or produces  an onshore flow

                                                        i
 that would not otherwise  exist  (30).   The lake breeze  can  cause the


 winds to blow  in two  different directions at two locations,  one near


 the  lake shore and the  other several miles inland, but both  within


 the  AQCR.   At  certain times  during spring and  summer months  the loca-


 tion nearer the lake  shore will have winds from the lake and the in-


 land location  may  have  winds governed  by macroscale meteorology.


 Similarly,  the  lake causes substantial recirculation of  air.   All


 of these  points related to the assumption of a symmetric wind  rose


 are  discussed below.


      In  the  Chicago area  windspeed and wind  direction  data from the


 two National Weather  Service (NWS) stations  located at Midway  (MOW)


and O'Hare  (ORD) airports are published regularly  (31).  The average


resultant annual windspeeds  and directions for 1973 and  1974 for both


of these stations are shown  in Table IV.

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                                                                 45
     TABLE IV.  ANNUAL RESULTANT WINDSPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS

                FOR CHICAGO

                Midway Airport             O'Hare Airport
             Wind      Wind  speed       Wind       Wind  speed
     Year    direction     (mph)         direction      (mph)

     1973       2101       1.6              230          1.8
     1974       210         2.0              240          2.3

      Figures  for wind directions  are  in  degrees from  North, i.e.,
     90  - East, 180 - South, 270 - West,  360 - North'.
     The wind  directions  are  essentially  the  same  for these two

locations.   However,  as the Figure  8  shows, these  airport locations

are  inland  (MDW  is  9  miles from the nearest lake shore and ORD is 14

miles).  The wind data from other locations  (Figure 8) such as Meigs

Airfield  (CGX),  DuPage County Airport (DPA),  and Glenview Naval Air

Station  (NBU)  are not published and are kept  on NWS files for only 90

days.  Even  these locations,  as Figure 8  shows, may not adequately

represent the  outlying counties.

     The data  for two periods (June 5-7 and July 26-29, 1975) for

these  airport  locations were  obtained by  copying the hourly data-

logs2  kept at  the NWS office,  1749  West Pershing Road in Chicago.

The  weather  conditions during these two periods were varied and in-

cluded days  with (a)  average  windspeeds of 10-15 mph or moderate-to-
2Generally only data  for  9  a.m.  to  9 p.m. were  available  for  all of
the five stations.  CGX remains  closed  from  11  p.m.  to  5  a.m.  and on
most days no data was available  from NBU between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m.

-------
  Me HENRY
                                                         46
      LAKE
   KANE
   KENDALL
   GRUNDY
Du Page
3  County
Airport  (DPI
 DU PAGE
                                 Lenview
                                Na^Hal  Air      LAKE MICHIGAN
                                   Jion (NBU)
                             O' Harel Airport
                                       Meig's  Airfield
                                        (CGX)
                                         Airport
                                          (MOW)
                              COOK
       WILL
                    KANKAKEE
                                      tn
                                      H
                                      H
                                      H
                                         H LAKE
                                        PORTER
                    10
              20
30 miles
Figure 8.  Airport locations  in  Chicago AQCR
           for wind data.

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                                                                 47


 strong winds with  no  lake  breeze (June  5 and 6)  and with lake breeze

 (July  27),  (b)  average windspeeds of 7-9 mph or moderate winds with

no lake breeze  (June 7 and  July 26),  (c)  average  windspeeds of 4-6

mph or moderate-to-light winds  with lake effect (July 28 and 29).

     On a day when  the inland and near shore temperatures are the  same

 (difference of  less than 3  to 4°F)  or no lake-effect and when strong

winds  are present,  the wind roses for different locations are quite

similar  (Figure 9).  Even then  there  are some differences;  MOW has

predominantly NW and  ORD has predominantly  W winds.   The variability

in the wind roses increases when the  windspeeds are  lower (<10 mph)

as shown  in Figure  10.  In  cases when there  is a  lake breeze,  due  to

the inland area being  warmer than the lake water, wind roses at dif-

ferent locations are significantly different (Figures 11 and 12) .  In

Figure 11, on a day with a  light lake breeze the  location near the

shore  (CGX and  NBU) has E winds whereas  other inland stations  have

winds  from S and SE.   Figure 12 shows a  day  (July 27)  with stronger

lake effects.

     To visualize the  changes in wind directions  for the day with  a

strong lake effect  (July 27), the wind directions at three  hour inter-

vals are  depicted on Figure 13.   At 6 a.m. all stations  except DPA

have winds from SW  and DPA  has  W winds.   W to NW winds predominate at

all the locations at 9 a.m.   At 12 noon  for  CGX there is a change  in
3Wind directions:  E - east, SE - southeast, S-  south, SW -  southwest,
 W - west, NW - northwest, N- north, NE - northeast.

-------
Dupa^e County
  Airport  (DPA)
Meigs Airfield
    I  (CGX)
                                                Midway Airport
                                                   I     (MOW)
     :are Airport
         (ORD)
17
17
25
                                         nyi<
Glenview Naval
Air ^tation (NBU)
                data)
              Numbers  indicate frequency (percent time) of
                     wind from a particular direction
   Figure 9.  Wind roses for different locations in Chicago AQCR for.
              June 5',  1975 (9 am to 9 pm) .
                                                              03

-------
 DuPage County Airport (DPA)

     25 25  8


                     8
  Meig's Airfield (CGX)

            8
                 17
                   58
Midway Airport  (MOW)

         8  17
O'Hare Airport  (ORD)
      8
          8 17
Glenview Naval Air Station  (NBU)
       -(Incomplete data")
                                                       17
                Numbers indicate frequency (percent time) of wind from a particular direction.
         Figure 10.  Wind roses for different locations in Chicago AQCR for
                     June 7, 1975.  (9 am to 9 pm).
                                                                                                  10

-------
DuPage CouJity Airport  (DPA)
                                      Meig's Airfield (CGX)

                                              8

                                                        8
Midway Airport (MDW)
         17  33
                                                                                   8 25
 O'Hare Airport  (ORD)
                                    Glenvie.w Naval Air Station (NBU)
                Numbers indicate frequency  (percent  time)  of wind from a particular direction.
          Figure 11.  Wind roses for different  locations  in Chicago AQCR for
                      July 29, 1975  (9 am to  9  pm).

-------
DuPage County Airport  (DPA)
    Meig's Airfield (CGX)
Midway Airport  (MDW)
 0'Hare
Glenview Naval Air Station  (NBU)
       (incomplete data)
                                     13
                    Numbers indicate frequency (percent time)  of wind from
                                   a particular direction.
             Figure 12.  Wind roses for different locations in Chicago AQCR for
                         July 27, 1975 (6 am to 9 pm) .

-------
                     6 am
       DPA
        DPA

CGX,MDW,NBU

        ORD
                                                         9 am
                                                 DPA    12
                                                                                 MDW
                                                                               ORD
                                                                                              noon
          MDW



DPA,ORD,NBU
                                                                                                 DPA
                                   NBU

                                    MDW
                                                                        CGX
                                                                                                      ORD
                              CGX
                     Figure 13.  Wind directions at three-hour intervals for different

                                 locations in Chicago AQCR on July 27, 1975.
                                                                                                         en
                                                                                                         KJ

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                                                                  53


 wind direction by almost 90 degrees and its wind direction becomes NE.

 This shows the start of the lake breeze.   At 3 p.m.  CGX has SE winds

 but all other locations still show NW winds.  At 6 p.m.,  wind direction

 at both MDW and NBU, in addition to CGX,  become essentially E, and DPA

 and ORD still show NW.   Note that MDW and NBU are nearer the lake than

 DPA and ORD and,  hence, the lake breeze from E affects  MDW and NBU

 first.   At 9 p.m. DPA and ORD show N to NE winds,  and CGX and MDW

 show E  to SE.   Finally, at midnight (not shown in Figure  13)  all  the

 reporting stations have W winds.  Thus, in less than 24 hours wind^

 have changed direction by almost 360°.   Also,  through a significant

 part of the day different stations had different wind directions.

 Such conditions could be experienced for 60 percent  of  spring and

 summer  days or for a substantial fraction of the time during a year

 (28).

      The lake  also causes recirculation of air pollutants.   In an ex-

 periment performed by Lyons and Olsson  (32),  balloons released into

 an onshore or  lake breeze rose,  went opposite to the lake breeze,  then

 descended and  returned in the onshore breeze,  then starred to repeat

 the cycle as indicated on Figure 14.  This means that pollution can  be

 blown away only to return,  sometimes several times in the same day.

 The dispersion equations are not able to  account for this occurrence.

     Finally,  for a given location,  different seasons of  the year may

 have different wind roses.   Figure 15 shows wind rose data for a  power
                                       t              *   '
plant located  within the Chicago AQCR (33) .   Wind roses for each  of

the calendar quarters are shown  in the  four corners  on  Figure 15.

-------
                                                     54
     2.5 miles
Land
Lake
shore
Lake
Figure 14:  Pollutant trajectory in a lake breeze,

            adapted from (32).

-------
                                                             55
        19v  10
    20
                   8
                   S»  calm
                      1%
             13
         Jan-Feb-Mar
                           13   10
                        15
                            13
                                   12
                                13
11

  11

 calm
  2%
                9   18
                                              11
              8   11
                           Average of the
                         Four Quarters,  1972
                                           16
              10
          Apr-rMay-Jun
                      calm
                  13   4%
           v  10
           Vl
                                              15     '   12
                                              '    '12

                                              Oct-Nov-Dec
                       calm
                        1%
Figure 15:  Wind rose data  for Dresden  nuclear power station

            of Commonwealth Edison  Company,  1972  (33).

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                                                                  56





 During the fall and winter months,  winds are predominantly from W and



 NW.   The ME and E winds dominate to some extent in the spring months,



 whereas during the summer,  S  and SW winds are more frequent.   Of course,



 these particular data for the wind  rose for a single location may not



 be truly representative of the whole AQCR.   However, the average of



 wind roses (Figure 15,  center)  is remarkably symmetrical.



      In summary, the reasons  for assuming a symmetric wind were: (a)



 wind roses at a single location can not describe the conditions in the



 entire AQCR,  and the data for other locations are not available in



 readily-obtainable published  format,  (b)  an average of seasonal wind
           ;    i                 ;


 roses is noticeably symmetric.



 Construction



      The dispersion equation  employed in this submodel for ground



 level concentration (z = 0 in Figure 7)  is as follows:
                     •  exp
                                                                (3)
and  for  stability C  as defined by  Turner (25):



          0y =  0.1 x°-92                       ,                 (4)



          0Z =  0.06  x °'9                                       (5)



where 0y, 0Z and x are in km.



In this  case, the plume rise above the  stack was assumed to be zero



and thus, h is  the stack height.   The concentration at any point x, y



can be calculated using equation 3.  This  would  vary depending on the



wind direction, even if average windspeed  and stability were held

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                                                                 57







constant.





     In order to get  an  estimate  of  average  concentration  at points




which are equidistant from a  source,  the  following method  was develop-




ed based on a symmetric  wind  rose, which  saves a  considerable amount




of computer time.   The basic  approach was to estimate an imaginary




angle 9  (where x =  rCos  9  and y = rSin  6)  such that the concentration




C(r,0) at the point (r,9)  is  the  average  annual concentration, C(r),




at any point at a distance of r from the  source.




     To obtain a generalized  expression for  9, concentrations using




equation 3 were determined for different  values of 9 with  height of




stack and r held constant.  Next, the averages of these concentrations




for different values  of  9  were computed.   This average concentration




would be the same as  the average  concentration with symmetrical wind




rose for a point at a distance r  from the source.  The average con-




centration was ^matched against the values of C(r,9) for different values




of 9.  This would give a 9' for a particular r' so that C(r', 9')




would be the same as  C(r') .   This process was repeated for different




stack heights and distances up to 100 km.  The angle, 9, was regressed




(34) against the stack height and distance from this data.  The metho-




dology is given in  Figure  16.




     The following  equation for 9 was obtained which is applicable to




all heights and distances  above four  kilometers.  Table V  gives a simi-




lar equations for the other conditions.







          9 = 14.24 -. 0.79 ln(r)  for  r  >4                  (6)

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                  1
                 a  , a
                 y
                 C(r,6)
          vary
          0 to 90°
i
                 E  C(r,9)
      vary r
   0.01 to 100 km
                  C(r)
  vary h
     i
 0 to 500 meters
                                        58
                             x = rCos 6


                             y = rSin 6
                             o  = 0.Ix
                              y
                                      .92
                             a  = 0.06x
                              z
                     .9
         i c(r'e)  = iorrexp
          I           y  z
I
                                               exp
                    n
                                      E C(r,9n)
                              C(r) =
                           i
                 Match C(r) with C(r,6) for a



                 particular set of h and r
                         Regression

                         analysis
                               t


                           9 = f(h,r)
Figure 16:   Flow  diagram:  development of dispersion submodel

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                                                                59
     TABLE V.  EQUATIONS FOR ANGLE 9 IN THE DISPERSION SUBMODEL
     Equations                                   Limits
                                         Height/ h,   Distance, r,
                                         in meters    in Km
9 = 14.24 - 0.79 ln(r)                   h<500        r>4

9 = 14.28 - 0.79 ln(r) - 0.01 r          100
-------
                                                                 60


 For this equation  coefficient of determination,4 R2  is greater than

 0.99.

      Finally,  in order  to calculate a concentration  at any location at

 a distance  r  from  a  source with a stack height equal to h, the equa-

 tions 6,  x  =  rCos  0, y  = rSin 0, 4, 5 and 3 are used, in that order.

 The details of the computer algorithm are given in Chapter VXT.
4The coefficient of determination R2 is the proportionate  reduction
in the variation of the dependent variable 6, which  is  explained by
the independent variable r.

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                             CHAPTER V



                          POPULATION SUBMODEL




 INTRODUCTION



     The purpose  of  the submodel  was to  characterize  spatial distribu-



 tions of population  and population characteristics with respect to



 sources of  air  pollution.   There  are a multitude of factors involved



 in  the characterization of population and  its distribution and inclu-
                                                    •e


 sion of all the factors could  make such  modeling an exceedingly com-



 plex, if not  an impossible task.   People are not located at equal



 distances with  respect  to different sources  or even similar sources



 of  air pollution.  Quite often people work in different places than



 they reside,  which means that  they are exposed to different levels of



 pollution in  a  single day.   Similarly, depending on the mode of travel,



 they are exposed  to  more or less  pollution.  Thus, in a model which



 simulates these conditions,  not only do  the  complex distributions have



 to  be included  but they have to be dynamic in nature or a time factor



 needs to be included.   Inclusion  of age  and  other factors in the



 people-location-time model  would  lead to further complications.





 DEVELOPMENT



 Rationale



     In this  first generation  model only population and county area,
                                                      <

with an assumption that population density is constant within a county,



were considered.  Even  in  this case,  the modeling was not straight



                                61

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                                                                 62






 forward.  Except in cases of very tall stacks, people living nearer to




 the  industries obviously experience a larger pollution dose than those




 living  at greater distances.  It has not been feasible to determine




 the  source-receptor damage for each location-specific inhabitant.




 Billions of  computations would have been required  (up to 1800 for each




 inhabitant,  in the extreme).  Moreover, extremely  large amounts of




 needed  computer storage could have made running and debugging a com-




 puter program very difficult.




     The principle used to reduce the complexity of the model and




 computer time was to find a generalized expression for the distance




 between the  source and a point such that the concentration at that




 point would  be the same as the average concentration experienced by




 people  for that particular source and county combination.  Thus, the




 total number of computations of concentration would be equal to the




 total number of sources in the AQCR.  These source-county specific-




 distances, called rings of average exposure, were  derived in the




 following manner and the methodology is depicted in Figure 17.




 Construction




     A  series of weighted average self-pollution concentrations  for




 two county sizes (radii, 30 and 100 km) and for different stack




 heights (1 to 500 meters) were calculated.  Next,  for each case, the




weighted average concentrations were matched against concentrations




 for the various distances derived earlier.  The distances at which




the two concentrations were equal were tabulated with the appropriate




stack height and county area.  The results for the distances or  ring

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                    1
          Dispersion submodel
          6 = 14.24-0.79 In  r
          and other equations
                  for  8
                    f
            Expressions  for
          x, y,
                 y,
                       , C(r,6)
             from Chapter  IV
                    Area weighted
                  ring concentration
   vary h
   from 1 to 500 metdrs
              Total weighted average
                 concentration =
              total concentration (R)
              total area
 vary r
 from 0 to R
                                                           63
Ring area
   I
   I

  f
   Match
   i
  J
 Regression
  analysis
                                               RR = f (R,h)
Figure 17,  Flow diagram:  development of population submodel.

-------
                                                                 64





 radii were regressed against the height of the stack and county area,




 and  the  following equation was obtained  (coefficient of determination,




 R2 = . 99) :




          RR = _ 0.65 + 0.26 R + 0.02 h + 0.51 In  (h)          (7)




 where RR (kilometers) is the ring radius for height h  (meters) and for




 a specific county size.  R is the radius of a circle whose area is




 equal to the area of the county, or R =,
     A word is due about the chronological development of this  sub-




model:  equation 7 was actually derived after a second "iteration" of




the process described above  (Figure 18).  Initially, through an analy-




sis similar to Figure 17, but in a less rigorous manner, an approxi-




mate equation RR = .25 R was derived and used in the model.  Subse-




quent sensitivity analysis showed that RR greatly influenced the




results.  Thus, the whole process  (Figure 17) was repeated for  large




numbers of values for R and h and the results were regressed with the




help of the Biomedical computer program BMDO2R  (34) to arrive at




equation 7 (Figure 18).




     Finally, the algorithm of this submodel is simple:  calculate R




for each source from R = J area/ir, where area is the area of the county




in which the source is located.  Substitute this R and the stack




height,  h, into equation 7 to compute RR, or the ring radius, for each




source.   RR is then used as an input to the dispersion submodel.

-------
                                                                   65
                          SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                                   i
                         POPEX USING POPULATION



                         SUBMODEL  : RR = 0.25 R
                       RR AN IMPORTANT PARAMETER
                                   I
                         REPEAT  : POPULATION





                        SUBMODEL DEVELOPMENT
                                        RR, R, h
                          REGRESSION ANALYSIS



                                (BMDO2R)
                RR = -0.65 + 0.26r + 0.02h + 0.51 In h
Figure 18.  Sensitivity analysis and improvement of population submodel.

-------
                           CHAPTER VI







                     HEALTH-EFFECTS SUBMODEL







 INTRODUCTION




     The effects of air pollution on human health can be divided into




 four groups  (2):   (a) acute sickness or death, (b) insidious or chronic




 disease, shortening of life, or impairment of growth, (c) alterations




 of  important physiological functions, such as ventilation of the lungs,




 and (d) discomfort, odor, or eye irritation.  Large amounts of work




 related to these groups of health effects have been done over the




 past years.




     A generalized model for predicting health risks would be extremely




 valuable for determining the relative impact of different sources of




 air pollution.  There are many "gaps" in the knowledge related to the




 precise effect of varying dosages of different air pollutants and no




 data on dose-response relationships relating air pollution dosages to




 effects on mortality and morbidity were available at the beginning of




 this project in September 1973.  Since early 1974, there has been an




 extensive effort by the EPA and others (22, 35-37) to construct dose-




 response curves in terms of aggravation of disease or increase in in-




 cidence of a disease.  Another approach would be to relate dosages of




 air pollution to their effects on physiological functions as character-




 ized by a set of clinical indicators.  Such an effort is described  in




Appendix A.  However, none of these approaches was general enough to




                                66

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                                                                 67


be used  for all pollutants.   In  this project,  the need was for an


evaluation of  the  relative  effect of different pollutants.  The follow-


ing approach was used  for estimation of the relative  effects.



DEVELOPMENT


Rationale


     A common  basis  for assessing the relative potential  for the
                         /

deleterious effect of  different  pollutants  was needed.  Pindex, ini-


tially developed by  Babcock (38),  provides  such a basis.   Pindex con-


siders the relative  effect  of each pollutant and combines individual


pollutant levels for a given  emission source into a single meaningful


number.  The tolerance-factor submodel is based on pindex, and the


methodology for pindex (39) as well  as its  data base  (40)  have under-


gone substantial revisions. New  concepts such  as apparent tolerance


factors  (41) have  been added  through this research project.


     The federal ambient air  quality standards (42) are based  upon the


available knowledge  of the  deleterious effects of the  individual pol-


lutants and seem to  be the  best  available means for relating one pollu-


tant to another as well as  for indirect assessment of  effects.  The


basic premise  has  been that equivalent toxicity,  harm, or unpleasantness


is experienced when  any of  the pollutant concentrations reaches its


ambient standard.  Thus, ambient  standards  can serve as ready-made


tolerance factors  for  use in  this  submodel.  This submodel is  called


a tolerance-factor submodel.

-------
                                                                 68


 Construe t ion

 Most-stringent standards.  -  There was,  however,  the problem of mul-


 tiple standards for  the  same pollutant.  For  example,  five different

 standards were established for  sulfur dioxide (Table VI).  The work


 of Larsen (43,44) provided some insight into  the problem of multiple

 standards.   He found interesting relationships between annual average

 concentrations for pollutants and the maximum concentrations present


 for shorter time periods.

     The Larsen relationship  is  described by Figure 19.   The point A

 indicates the  annual average concentration for sulfur  dioxide at a

 certain location.  Since this is the annual average, one-half of the

 readings during the  year would  be expected to be above,  and the  other


 half would be  below  this average value  of A.  Thus, approximately half

 of the readings for  any  averaging time  would  lie above the 50 percent

 probability line with the  remainder below this line.   It should  be


 noted that this probability  line might  not be horizontal unless  the
             i
 mean and median values coincide.


     To relate  maximum concentrations for shorter time  averages to the


 annual average:  Larsen found that for a given annual average  in  a

 given locality,  it would be  unlikely that the monthly  average would


 exceed a certain level more  than once a year  (point B  in Figure  19).


 This  point  B,  as we  would  expect, is above the annual  average,  since


 the annual  average lies  intermediate between  the higher  and  lower


monthly  average  concentrations.  Similarly, the  expected maximum

-------
TABLE VI.  AIR QUALITY STANDARDS AND TOLERANCE FACTORS  (in  yg/m  )

Pollutant


Oxidant

Sulfur
dioxide

(Secondary)

Nitrogen
oxides^

Carbon
monoxide

Particulate
matter
(Secondary)
Hydro-
carbons
EPA STANDARDS
Annual Levels not to be exceeded
measure more than once/year
24 hr. 8 hr. 3 hr. 1 hr.
160
(0.08)

80 365
(0.03)1 (0.14)
60 260 1300
(0.02) (0.10) (0.5)

200
(0.1)

10,000 40,000
(9) (35)

75 260
60 150

160
TOLERANCE FACTORS
24-hour Annual
Ambient Emission Ambient Emission
(apparent) (apparent)
59 — 8


260 260 41 41




800 330 200 53


7800 7800 2900 2900


150 150 54 54

A A
80C4 — 1004
                    (0.24)

-------
TABLE VI.  CONTINUED
Footnotes for Table VI.
1                 "                                                           —
 The numbers in parentheses are in ppm.
 EPA standards are for nitrogen dioxide.  It is assumed here that the half of all nitrogen- oxides
  (emission or ambient) in the atmosphere are nitrogen dioxide.
 This standard is only applicable to morning rush hours and was not used to determine the hydrocarbon
 tolerance factors.
 These numbers are based on a 1968 emission inventory  (46) .

-------
1
c

•S
-P
-P
C
0)
u
c

8
       10.0
        1.0
0.1
       0.01
                                                                     B
                      50 percent probability line
                I
                                   10
                                    I
     •AM ^^

    I  I
                                                                                                    10,000
                                                                                                   n
                                      G
                                      •H


                               1,000  g

                                      •rl
                                      -P
                                      (8
                                      5-1
                                      •P


                                      0)
                                      O
                                      c
                                      o
                                      u
                                                                                                       100
               1 Hr
                                 24 Hr
1 Month
1 Year
           Figure 19.  Concentration vs.  averaging time for sulfur  dioxide.

-------
                                                                 72

                        i
 levels  for the 24-hour and 1-hour periods are shown in Figure 19 as

 points  C and D.

     Again, it is not surprising that such maximum concentrations rise

 as  the  time intervals are reduced.  High concentrations for s,hort time

 intervals are expected and experienced.  They are averaged together

 with below-average values in order to arrive at the intermediate

 annual  average.  A line through points A, B, C and D describes the

 expected maximum concentrations for different sampling times which are

 associated with a given annual average.  If this "line of limits" is

 exceeded for more than once a year for any time period, the annual

 average would probably be increased.

     Now it is possible to relate this line of limits to the standards

 for sulfur dioxide.  Figure 20 shows the three secondary and two primary

 standards for sulfur dioxide.  The relationship between the standards

 is not  the same as the average Larsen line of limits.  The three

 secondary standards do not lie in a straight line.  The reason could

 be that certain deleterious effects may be detected at a certain con-

 centration over a short period, and other effects may be likely for a

 different concentration over a longer time interval.

     Even though the five standards are not in one line, individual

parallel Larsen relationships can be drawn through each of the points

as shown on Figure 20.  One of them, the lowest line, is clearly the

most stringent.  If this line is not exceeded, none of the upper lines
                                                i
will be exceeded.  This most-stringent relationship is based upon  the

24-hour secondary standard.  Fromf this line the most-stringent annual

-------
   10.0
    1.0
04


•H



o
•H
 JJ
• c

 u

 8   o.i
                                                              A  Primary standard


                                                              Q  Secondary  standard
                                                                                                  10,000
    0.016
    0.01
                                                                                                           tn




                                                                                                           •H



                                                                                                   1,000   §

                                                                                                           "^1
                                                                                                     100
                                                                                                      41
                                                                                                          -P
                                                                                                          C
                                                                                                          0)
                                                                                                          O
                                                                                                          c
                                                                                                          o
                                                                                                          u
              1  Hr      3  Hr             24 Hr                       1 Month



           Figure  20.  Standards and tolerance factors for sulfur dioxide.
                                                                                          1 Year
                                                                                                          U)

-------
                                                                 74

 standard or annual-tolerance  factor was derived  as  0.016 ppm or

 41 pg/m^ (Table VI)  for  sulfur  dioxide.   Similarly, most-stringent

 annual standards were  derived for the other pollutants and are like-

 wise listed on the right-hand side of Table VI.  The pertinent back-

 ground information is  listed  on Table VII.

     The toxicity-factor  submodel is based upon these annual tolerance

 factors thus derived.  Apparent tolerance or toxicity factors were

 computed for nitrogen  oxides  and hydrocarbons, the pollutants which

 react to form oxidants.  The  discussion of photochemistry, as well as

 the definition and discussion of apparent tolerance factors, is  given
     t                                /
 below.
                                             /
 Photochemical considerations  and apparent tolerance factors. - It was

 assumed that nitrogen  oxides  and hydrocarbons contribute to photo-

 chemical oxidant formation on a one to one molar basis  (45).  The

 concept of  a limiting  reactant  is important; if  the total number of

 moles of nitrogen oxides is less than the number of moles of hydro-

 carbons,  the limiting  reactant  would be nitrogen oxides, and thus

 theoretically,  the maximum amount of oxidant produced would be equal

 to  the  number of moles of nitrogen oxides.  However, the extent  of

 conversion  to oxidant  is also affected by solar  radiation.  In pindex,

 the  reaction to  oxidant is assumed to be  22 percent complete  (38),

based upon  the average solar  radiation level present in major USA

cities.

    For example,  consider an  air pollution source with nitrogen  oxide

emissions of  20  tons and hydrocarbon emissions of 15 tons;  the moles of

-------
                                                               75
         TABLE   VII.  DERIVATION OF TOLERANCE FACTORS

Oxidant
Sulfur dioxide
Nitrogen oxides
Carbon moxoxide
Particulate matter
Hydrocarbons 3
Slope of
Larsen
"Line of
limits"
log (yg/m3)
log (hr)
- 0.335
- 0.315
- 0.2461
- 0.179
- 0.212
- 0.238
Most
Stringent
Standard
yg/m3
160 (1 hr)
266 (24 hr
secondary)
200 (annual)2
10,000 (8 hr)
150 (24 hr
secondary)
160 (3 hr)4
Extrapolated
Annual
Ambient
Standard
yg/m3
8
41
2002
2900
54
—
*The slope, - 0.246, is for N©2 and this slope was used in the
 extrapolation.  The corresponding slopes for NO and NOX are
 - 0.387 and - 0.310, respectively.

2EPA standards are for nitrogen dioxide alone.  It is assumed
 here that the half of all nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere
 are nitrogen dioxide.

3Hydrocarbons assumed to be an oxidant precursor rather than
 a pollutant.
   is standard is only applicable to morning rush hours and
 was not used to determine the hydrocarbon tolerance factors

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                                                                  76



 nitrogen  oxides emitted are equal to:



           weight of NOX in tons     20
           	 = — = 0.43 ton-mole.
           molecular weight of NOX   46


 Similarly,  assuming the average molecular weight of hydrocarbons  to be

                                                                     \
 16,  the moles of hydrocarbon emitted are equal to 15/16 or 0.94 ton-


 mole.  Thus, nitrogen oxides is the limiting reactant, and the amount


 of oxidant formed will be equal to the limiting reactant times the


 fraction  of reaction going to completion:


           oxidant = 0.43 x 0.22


                  = 0.095 ton-moles of oxidant, or


                  = 0.095 x molecular weight of oxidant


                  = 4.6 tons of oxidant


 assuming  average molecular weight of oxidant to be 48.


     The  recent improvements in pindex methodology were related to the


 method of assigning oxidant contribution (13).  In the original model


 (38), oxidant was formed only to the extent that an individual emission


 category  emitted both nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons.  For example,


 in the case of a source which has only hydrocarbon emissions and  no


 nitrogen  oxides there was no oxidant formation, and no "penalty"  was


 assessed  in the original pindex.  The tolerance-factor submodel assumes


 mixing among emissions from different categories such that oxidant can


 be synthesized from nitrogen oxides from one source and hydrocarbons


 from another source.  The oxidant contribution thus obtained  is then


prorated back to its precursors, 50 percent to nitrogen oxides and  50

-------
                                                                 77






percent to hydrocarbons, regardless of the  source.




     "Apparent" or emission  tolerance factors are also listed in




Table VI.  These adjusted  factors approximate the contributions of




nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons to photochemical oxidant formation




such that the oxidant effects can be distributed among nitrogen oxides




and hydrocarbon precursor  emissions.  Hydrocarbons have no tolerance




factor listed in the ambient column  (Table  VI) because they are con-




sidered to be solely pollutant precursors rather than actual pollu-




tants.  Likewise, no tolerance factor is shown for oxidant emissions




because oxidant is usually formed in the atmosphere rather than




emitted directly.




     The apparent tolerance  factors were derived in the following




manner:  From a nationwide emissions inventory (46), total hydrocarbon




emissions are 32.0x10^ tons  and total nitrogen oxide emissions are




20.6x10** tons.  Assume average/molecular weight is 16 for hydrocarbons




and 46 for nitrogen oxides:




          hydrocarbon emissions    = if^" x 1C}6 = 2-0xl°6 ton-moles






          nitrogen oxide emissions =   '  x 106 = 0.45xl06 ton-moles-






Again, nitrogen oxides is  the limiting reactant, and from the earlier




discussion:




          oxidant = 0.45xl06x0.22




                  = 0.1 xlO6 ton-moles




                  =4.8 xlO6 tons

-------
                                                                 78


 This  oxidant  is  in turn prorated equally to both hydrocarbons and

 nitrogen oxides.

      Now,  to  calculate the apparent tolerance factor for nitrogen

 oxides:

 unreacted  nitrogen oxides =  (0.45 — 0.1)106 ton-moles

                          =  0.35xl06 ton-moles

                          =  IG.lxlO6 tons.

 The apparent  tolerance factor for nitrogen oxides can be determined

 from  the equation:                                             (8)

      total NOX           unreacted NOX      oxidant attributed to NOX

      apparent tolerance  tolerance factor   oxidant tolerance factor
      factor for  NOX      for NOX

 Substituting  the appropriate tolerance factors from Table VI:

      20.6xl06            IG.lxlO6    2.4xl06
      	= 	 +  	
      apparent tolerance      200          8
      factor for  NOX

 or apparent tolerance factor for NOX =53  (when calculated with values

 for nitrogen  oxides and oxidant tolerance factors prior to rounding

 off).

      Similarly for hydrocarbons:

      total HC	  _  oxidant attributed to HC
      apparent tolerance factor    oxidant tolerance factor
      for HC

      32.0x106	  =  2.4xl06
      apparent tolerance factor       8
      for HC

or apparent tolerance factor for HC = 100  (when calculated with values

for oxidant tolerance factor prior to rounding off).

-------
                                                                 79





     Note  that  the  apparent tolerance  factor for nitrogen  oxides is




 independent of  the  nitrogen-oxides/hydrocarbon emission  ratio  as long




 as nitrogen oxides  are  limiting (almost always the  case).   Such is not




 the case for  hydrocarbons,  since  the oxidant "penalty" must be prorated




 among variable  amounts  of excess  hydrocarbons.




     The tolerance  factor of 100  for hydrocarbons is  based on  the 1968




 nationwide emission inventory (46)  and it  could be  considered  as the




 upper limit,  since  hydrocarbon emissions have been  steadily decreasing




 since 1968.   On the other extreme,  is  a case when both nitrogen oxides




 and hydrocarbon are present in equal-molar basis; for such a case the




 hydrocarbon tolerance factor will be 25.  'Similar calculations reveal




 that the range  for  24-hour apparent tolerance factors for  hydrocarbons




 is 175-800.   Note that  as hydrocarbon  emissions are reduced, the re-




 maining hydrocarbon emissions become more  significant with regard to




 oxidant synthesis.   A much more realistic  appraisal would  result if




 "reactive" rather than  "total" hydrocarbons  are considered as  oxidant




 precursors.   This refinement would  require more-explicit emission




 information than is currently available for  most hydrocarbon sources.




     Finally, the annual  emission (or  apparent)  tolerance  factors given




 in the extreme  right column of Table VI are  used in the tolerance-




 factor submodel.  From  these annual apparent tolerance factors it is




 clear that carbon monoxide  is the least toxic pollutant.   In the model




 the emissions of all the  pollutants are brought to  CO-equivalent base




 for comparison.  This is  accomplished  by multiplying  the emissions by




a factor TF(pollutant).   This factor is given by:

-------
                                                                 80

where K is the particular pollutant,




      FF(CO)  is the tolerance factor for CO, and




      FF(K) is the tolerance factor for the pollutant K.




     The details of a computer algorithm which uses the mathematical




relations developed in this chapter as well as in chapters IV and V




are given in the following chapter.

-------
                            CHAPTER VII




                  COMPUTER MODELS  AND INPUT DATA




COMPUTER MODEL:  POPEX


     With the simplifications  and  assumptions  utilized in  the preced-


ing chapters to  arrive  at the  three submodels,  the  basic computer


algorithm for popex  is  quite simple and is  described  below.  Details


of the computer  program are given  later.


Computer Algorithm


     The definitions of variables  used  in the  following algorithm and


their equivalents used  in Chapters IV,  V and VI are given  in Table VIII.


The computer algorithm,  stepwise,  is:


      (1) Based on the method given in Chapter  VI, combine  emissions


of the five pollutants  for each source  into one number:



                           5
          SOURCE(I,N,7)  = Z_SOURCE(I,N,K) x TF(K)
                           K.—X


      (2) Calculate distances for inter-county  and intra-county  ex-


posures.  For inter-county, distances between  the centers  of the


emitter and the  receptor counties  are calculated:




          DIST(I,J)  = |(X(I) -X(J))2+  (Y(I) -Y(J))2




or        D = 1.6 x  DIST(I,J)  kilometers.


In the case of intra-county exposures,  from Chapter V,




          R = (AREA (I) A) ^



                                 81

-------
                    TABLE  VIII.   EXPLANATIONS OF VARIABLES  USED  IN THE COMPUTER PROGRAM
Terms used in the
computer program
                       Equivalent
                       terms if
                       used in
                       Chapters
                       IV,V,VI
                            Explanation
AREA(I)

BCON(I,J)


CCON(J)


DIST(I,J) or D

DIST(I,I) or D

EXP(J)

FF(K)

H or. SOURCE (I, N, 6)

I

J
                      RR,  r



                      FF(K)

                         h
Concentration of air pollutants in County J due to emissions of
source N located in County I

Area of County I

Concentrations in County J due to emissions of all sources in
County I

Concentrations in County J due to emissions of all sources in all
the counties

Distances between the centers of Counties I and J

Ring of average concentration for County I based on Chapter V
           i
Total population-pollution effect for County J

Tolerance factor for pollutant K

Height of the stack of source N in County I

Emitter county

Receptor county
                                                                                                       oo
                                                                                                       to

-------
TABLE VIII.  CONTINUED
Terms used in the
computer program
                      Equivalent
                      terms if
                      used in
                      Chapters
                      IV,V,VI
                         Explanation
N

NA

POPEXP(NA)


R

SIGMAY


SIGMAZ


SOURCE(I,N,K)1
K =  1-5

SOURCE(I,N,7)1

SUMEXP
Pollutants 1-PM, 2-SO ,  3-NO , 4-CO, 5-HC
       >              £      X

Source number

Source-category number

Population-pollution effect due to the source-category NA as percent
of the total

Radius of a circle whose area is the same as that of a county

Standard deviations of the plume concentration distribution in the
crosswind direction

Standard deviations of plume concentration distribution in the
vertical direction

Emissions of five pollutants
Combined emissions of the five pollutants based on Chapter VI

Total population-pollution effect
                                                                   oo
                                                                   00

-------
TABLE VIII.  CONTINUED
Terras used ir. zhe
computer program
Equivalent
terms if
used in
Chapters
IV,V,VI
                              Explanation
TF(K)
THETA
XX
YY
•-VJ.ND
TF(K)
A factor based on tolerance factor of pollutants as defined in
Chapter VI

Angle for computing average concentration in the dispersion
submodel

X-coordinate of center of County I

Downwind distance from a source

Y-coordinate of center of County I

Crosswind distance from a source

Windspeed
 To save on storage  space, 'these  variables  are  actually single-string  arrays  in the  computer program.
 Some of these are converted  into three  dimensional  arrays  by the  FUNCTIONS ISOD and :;AMD described in
 this chapter.
                                                                                                       oo

-------
          D  =  DIST(I,I)  = - 0.65 + 0.26R + 0.02H + 0.51 In (H) .



     (3)  From  Chapter VI, select an appropriate equation for 0



 (Table V).   For  example, for h <100 meters and 1 
-------
                                                                 86
 used for popex ranking.




 Computer Program




      In order to  facilitate future updating of the popex model, the




 computer program  was constructed in a modular form.  Several sub-




 routines and functions, each for a specific task or pet of tasks, were




 prepared.  The flow of the program is given in Figure 21, and a listing




 of the program is given in Appendix B.  The subroutines and functions




 are briefly described below.






 MAIN - This is the central part of the program and is used primarily




 for control of the program.




 CORIBO - Contains the dispersion algorithm and is used for calculating




 concentrations of emissions at the receptor points.




 DATAR - All of the data is read by this subroutine.  It :also prepares




 tables related to the input data.




 DISTAN - Calculates inter-county and intra-county exposure distances




 based on the population submodel.




 ISOD - The function ISOD provides the accessing ease of a three-




 dimensional array while keeping the storage compactness of a single-




 dimensional array.




MASSE - This is used to calculate the emission of each pollutant  and




source in terms of percent of the total AQCR emissions.




NAMD - This function also provides the accessing ease of a two-dimen-




sional array while keeping the storage compactness of a single  dimen-




sional array.

-------
                                                       87
      *these are fxonctions; all others are  subroutines
Figure 21.  Flow diagram of the popex computer model.

-------
                                                                 88







PINDEX - Tolerance factors developed in the health-effect submodel




are applied to emissions in this subroutine.




RITEA - Writes out the various results in different formats.




SENSE - In addition to the MAIN, this subroutine controls the program.




Values of input parameters are changed arbitrarily for sensitivity




analyses of the entire model  (see Chapter IX for details).




SORTIT -This subroutine arranges source-categories in decreasing order




of their percent contribution to popex.




SUMDIS - SUMDIS sums concentrations and population-exposures from all




sources in all counties and prorates the total population-pollution




effect back to the individual source-categories for assigning rank-




priorities.









COMPUTER MODELS:  MASS INDEX AND PINDEX




     Two preliminary computer models called mass index and pindex were




also developed to form a basis for comparing the results of popex.




Mass index expresses the emissions of five pollutants for each of the




sources in terms of percentage of the total AQCR emissions.  Pindex  is




analogous to the tolerance-factor submodel and in it the emissions are




divided by the tolerance factors.  Then "corrected" emissions are




normalized to a grand total of 100.







INPUT DATA




     Emissions data were obtained from National Emissions Data System




(NEDS)  of the U.  S. Environmental Protection Agency  (EPA).   Data for

-------
                                                                 89






the point sources were supplied by NEDS on a magnetic  tape.  Area-




source data were obtained from the printout of point and area emissions.




The emissions data on point sources were  for 816  source categories as




defined by a source classification code  (SCC).  Emissions of area




sources were divided into 41 categories.  SCC is a four-number code,




with a unique description for each of the 816 point-source-categories.




To save on computer storage space, instead of directly using SCC in the




computer program, these categories were assigned  numbers 1 through 816.




The 41 area source categories were assigned numbers 821 through 861.




These source numbers  (1 through 861) are  used in  this  dissertation.




The Appendix C should be referred to to get the corresponding SCC for




point sources from the source-category numbers.




     Emissions of the individual sources  located  in each of the eleven




counties are given in Appendix D.  Stack  heights  are listed for each




source.  In cases where there are no stacks, the  estimated plume




heights given in the NEDS data were used  in place of the stack height




in the model.  For area sources, "stack heights" were  assumed




(Appendix D).  Table IX shows the total emissions of the five pollu-




tants for each of the eleven counties.




     The centers and their x and y coordinates of each of the counties




are shown in Figure 22 (47).  The center  of each county is the center




of gravity of the geographical area of the county.

-------
TABLE IX.  EMISSIONS DATA FOR COUNTIES  IN THE  CHICAGO A/CF.  I!,'  TONS/YEAR

                       OBTAINED FROM APPENDIX  D
County
Cook
DuPage
Grunay
Kane
Kankakee
Kendall
Lake
McHenry
Will
Lake
Porter
State
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
FM
287,882
8,284
13,525
10,583
7,709
574
12,988
3,120
64,523
196,738
7,160
so2
373,146
10,656
3,592
10,999
10,537
682
46,128
3,494
63,743
536,118
85,928
NO
X
280,900
25,158
- 3,561
12,914
7,168
1,499
31,620
6,269
47,046
121,693
26,410
CO
1,509,675
153,749
13,731
77,973
38,9S4
12,902
127,050
45,809
185,343
8S5 , 200
41,461
Ui-
580,912
41,584
5,393
27,002
11,030
3,025
74,562
11,947
84,860
106,945
11,566
Total
Grand total for
Chicago
             613,086
1,145,023
564,238
3,097,378
                  6,378,551  tons/year
958,826

-------
 en
 •H
 X
            (14,91)
      Me HENRY
            X
        (15,64)

         KANE
         (15,40)
       KENDALL
        (15,19)
            X
        GRUNDY
                  I
    (36,91)
       X
    LAKE
 DU PAGE
    X
(31,59)
(34,31)
   X

   WILL
                                                              91
                                                    LAKE MICHIGAN
             X
           (48,55)
            COOK
                               X  (42,9)

                          KANKAKKE
                                                (68,29)
                                                  X
                                                LAKE
                                         X
                                      (84,32)
                                     PORTER
(0,0)
                                                    X axis
                         10
           20
                  30   miles
 Figure  22.   Locations of the centers of counties in the
              Chicago AQCR and their X and Y coordinates.

-------
                          CHAPTER VIII




                   RESULTS OF THE POPEX MODEL




 FORMAT OF RESULTS


      In the Chicago AQCR, there are 227 source-categories out of a



 total of 857 nationwide  source-categories given in Appendix C.  As



 explained earlier, each  source-category may include more than one



 source (Appendix D).   Table X  lists the results of the popex model



 along with the  emissions, mass index, and pindex for each of the source



 categories.   For each  category, the first row lists total emissions, as



 well  as emissions  of the five pollutants.  The mass index is given on



 the second line and it gives the emissions of each source-category and



 of each pollutant  in terms of percentage of total emissions for the



 Chicago AQCR.   On  the  next line pindex for the source-category, as well



 as prorated pindex for each pollutant in the source-category, are given.



 Results using the  popex  model are given on the last line.



      To get a better idea of source-priorities, source-categories are



 listed in the order of decreasing popex in Table XI.   The source-



 category "transportation-gasoline light vehicles" representing auto-



mobiles  is responsible for 23 percent of popex and is  listed  first.



The three columns  on the right  (Table XI)  list "ranks" for each of  the



source-categories  according to the three models or indices:   mass  index,
                                   i


pindex,  and popex.  These ranks are based on percentage contribution



to each  index (Table XII).  .


                                 92

-------
! AcJLh X . 	 LMISSICNS AND HF.StH.7tr-C-P-'-» fl~,S fNO£.:.X» P IfgggX-jftNO-POPfc
SOURCE- CATEGORIES IN THE CHICAGO AUCR.
SOUKCt
CATEGORY
O C f-fl .1 S-.3 I U N i>
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
PQFcX
9 EMISSIONS
M«SS INDEX
P INDEX
10 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P i. CL A
P INDEX
PCPEX
	 • Jo c IK 1 i> 5 I u IN 5-
MASS INDEX
PINDt'X
POPEX
37 EMISSIONS
VASS INDEX
P INDEX
	 — 	 P t) P t X
39 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PCPEX
I U 1 AL
0^43
olie
32128=-.
5.04
12.51
2.73
t> • G *J
3.59
672.
. 01
0.02
0.03
23435.
0.45
1,02
0.43
0 . 0 0
0.00
fl ("^ f
45,
0,00
V.' ;• - - -^
C - v 3

1 13 6 »
C.02
C.03
10027.
0.3i
1223.
0.02
G * O 4
•» v* V
0.01
£ oo »
0*01
C.02
2.
C .00
C « 0 0
u fl
	 rt 	 ---w.- 	

su<;
0.35
C,91
275633.
6.32
11.17
135104.
2. 12
215.
0... 	 /"Lyi,.
0.01 .
3v yy .
C.25
0.65
70 .
C.OC
c.oo
Q .
0.-0
— r ,-,3. —

— 	 	 i\UA
.- -• r+ «"•»
	 rrfcQ'*1
0* 11
0.2i
3256t .
0.51
i .oa
36132.
O.D?
i .,.,„*, M:t ,.„.„„ _
!i i .*
107.
0,rt f\
• o.oo
1 J iJ O »
O.lb
0 »36
25.
O . GO
0.00
30.
0,00
— .. ./\. f)'J


CO
O.OO
O..OO
2339.
O.04
O.OO
109^.
0*02
9 ,_,.
0.00
0.01
O.OO
1 .
O"» O 0
0.00
5.
0.00
0.0 O- 	

i— es — ?-««= 	

0,00
o.eo
70S*
G.Ot
0,01
330.
O.01
A A ' . .
10.
O.iJO
O.OO
O.OD
1 „
O.OO
5.
0.00
000 urn
CO

-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINU6D
SOURCE
CATEGORY
42 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
K 1 NU E X
POPEX
43 EMISSIONS
MASS INUcX
P INDEX
POPEX
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
65 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
FUr-'t*
66 EMISSIONS
t/ASS INDEX
— — - - P IiNuEX
POPEX
6t> EMISSIONS
P INDEX
POPEX
	 	 j, y EMlbbiCNS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
72 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
	 — 	 LI 1 ' O r-~ i. 	
TCTAL
22C77.
0.35
	 U.&7
C.39
45.
O.UO
0.00
0.00
O'O i O ti.
0.55
olis
15253.
0.24
0.53
u • o 1
122579.
1 .92
4.45
2.29
217"36.
0 . J4*
0.61
0.43
J 1 3 6 .
0.05
0.1 !
0.16
0.32
0. 72
PM
116.
C.OO
c.oo
2.
C.OO
0.00
fO 1 .
0.01
C.01
2784.
0.04
C.09
32832.
C.51
3517.
. uo
0.11
CiO6 .
0.02
0.03
7S39*
C. 12
C.24
SO2
50.
C.OO
- 	 ' 	 C'.'O'O 	 - 	
1 .
c.oo
c.oo
1 34 i»0 .
0.21
0.55
6640.
0.11
0.28
74771 .
1.17
• U— .
15584.
U • <£ HI
C.63
0.02
C.06
10140.
C, 16
0.41
NCX
21169.
0.33
38.
O . 00
0.00
2 0~j 1C*
0.32
0.64
5400,
o.ca
0.17
13967.
0.22

«rtrj
O.C7
0.01
O.C2
1965.
0.03
0.06
CO
678.
O.O1
3.
1 .OO
0.00.
0.01
O.OO
180.
0.00
0.00
776.
0.01
* U \J
293.
0.00
i .
0.00
o.co
110.
0.00
0.00
HC
64.
0.00
1.
» u u
0.00
J^I *
0.00
0.00
54.
0.00
O.OO
233.
O.CO
en ft 	 	 . , ,
* \J \J
146.
a..- 	 -/»n ... -i— - — 	 	 — . .,.— — —
1 • v> U
0.00
0.00
o.co
33. g
0.00
0.00

-------
TABLE   X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
73 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
!-• INDEX
POPEX
77 EMISSIONS
MASS INUfcX
PINOEX
PCPEX
VASS~INDEX
P INDuX
PCPEX
y«r, EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
97 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P iiNkEA
PGPEX
98 EMISSIONS
1 	 • <
0.07
0.09
*« J U .
O.02
O.O5
0.01
62.
0.00
0.00
	 0*00 	
PM
10 128.
0.10
~ 	 • C 5'3t 	
19.
c.oo •••
c.oo
M f. V .
O.Oi
0.01
3C39.
0.05
C.09
999.
0.02
. 03
145.
B-e\n 	
C.OO
07.
C.OO
c.oo
3.
C.OO
0,00
SO2
0*22
1 ~ • C . 5 6 • - •
3ti.
C.OO
1 330 .
C.03
0.07
ctrs
1 .94
13827.
0.22
e> • \f
. u c
1400.
0 .06
0.02
C.04
45.
C.OO
c.oo
NOX
2470.
C.04
	 0 « 0& 	
6.
— o. oo
0.00
1 Ooc. .
0.02
0.03
8178.
0.13
0.26
2644.
0.04
6f\ f*
m Uo
371 .
Qp 1
O.Of.
i O * fl
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
CO
331.
0.01
	 -3-a-QO
10.
"0.00
o.co
-Jt3 *
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
188.
0.00
29.
0,00
v .
0.00
0.00
1.
0.00
0.00
HC
164.
O.OO
3.
' 0 . OO
o.co 
-------
TABLE  X,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
101
102

10J
104
105
106

	 	 " ~- i uo
1 10

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PlNDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PlNDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
WASS INDEX
PlNDEX
PCPEX
EV1SSIGNS
MASS INDEX .
PlNDEX
EMISSIONS
PASS INDEX
P1NJEX
PGPEX
EMISSIONS
MAbS INJcX
P INDP.A
PGPEX
LN iii iUi\i>
MASS INDEX
PlNDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDr.X
P INDEX
— LJ . iL-- ;- k — ~~
TCTAL
225.
0.00
b.Ui
t.OO
2315.
U.04
0.07
0.03
3Ji f.
0.08
0.16
0.08
2199.
0.03
0.06
u • u o
C4132.
1 .01
0.78
4022.
0. 06
0.15
0.04
0.40
0.99
0.59
31.
C.OO
0.00
PM
15.
0.00
0.00
152.
C .UO
0.00
0.01
0.01
247.
C.OO
0.01
1C22.
C.03
47.
C . uO
C.OO
u .
0.00
0.01
la.
0 .UO
0.00
S02
138.
C.OC
	 o.oi —
28.
C.OO
C .00
IU3.
0.00
C.OO
34.
0.00
0.00
31110.
0.49
1 .26
3257.
1 . 0 5
C.13
u .
0.35
C.d9
2»
C.OC
0.00
NOX
59.
O.CO
	 o.oo 	
1947.
0.06
O.07
0. 14
1621.
0.03
0.05
29352.
0.46
» 9*:
676.
.01
0.02
tH O UC *
0.04
0.09
7.
0,00
0,00
cp
7.
0.00
	 o.oo 	
149.
o.o-o ••• - •
C.OO
	 341 	 	 	
0.01
0.00
237.
0.00
0.00
1621.
0.03
0.00
1-5.
_ * \J U
0.00
— -• - 	 — •• 3 7 fe ' " •
0.01
0.00
2.
0,00
0,00
HC
6.
O.OO
	 0 .00 	
39.
• o • oo 	 — 	
0.00
0.00
0.00
60*
0.00
o.oo
427.
0.01
0 * u i
27.
• uu
O.OO
O.OO
0.00
o.oo <£
O.CO

-------
TABLE  X.
CCNTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
111
	 	 1 12
1 lo
128
1 30
135

JO
147

EMSSIQKS
MASS INDEX
PINDtX 	
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MAbb INDEX
PlNDuX
PGPEX
L-M ISblONS
<*ASS INDEX
P INDEX
PUPfcX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDtX
H U H £1 A
FMISSIONS
,MASS INDEX
P INDtA
HUPEX
EM ISSIONS
MASS 1NDE.X
PINDEX
PGPEX
1. 1*, t o o i u i\ a
MASS INDEX
PINDtX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
,VAS3 INDL.X
P INOEX
TOTAL
2 1.
0.00
oloo
141.
" 0 • O 0
0.01
0.00
C.Ol
0.03
0.01
718.
0.01
O.OJ
0 « 0 0
151 1 1 .
O. 24
0.53
0.14
36.
0.00
0. 00
t 1 £ «
C. 01
0 . 0 ?.
0, OC
3 s>5 .
0.01
0.01
	 0.04 	
PM
13.
0.00
	 c.oo 	
3.
C » \J 0
0.00
0 .
c.o
c.o
1S3.
0.00
0.00
6£17.
C. 1 1
. d\
1 .
C.OO
0.00
0.01
C.OO
C.OO
SQ2
1 .
C.OO
	 c.oo —
111.
C • w U
C.OO
£26 .
0.01
C.03
475 ,
C.Ol
0.02
6S84 .
0.1 i
.26
17.
O 	 n-n 	
U . ^ O
C.OO
C.Ol
C.Ol
251 .
0.00
C.Ol
NCX
5 .
0.00
	 o.oo 	
oloo
c .
0.0
0.0
75.
C.OO
0.00
1090.
0.02
' . UO
1.
o.co
o.oo
0.00
96.
O.CO
0.00
CO
1 .
0.00
tO 0 	
3.
f^ ** n
U . U U
0.00
•
0.0
0.0
10.
o.oo
o.oo
144.
0.00
• U U
14.
ei m r\ n
0.00
	 G
0.00
0.00
6.
0.00
0.00
HC
1.
O.OO
i-» UU
1 *
Q * OO
G*GO
.
0.0
0.0
s.
0.00
o»oo
76.
0.00
.OO 	 • 	 — 	
3.
0.00
0.00
0.00
5. -1
0.00
0.00

-------
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
143 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
HlNUtX
POPEX
149 EMISSIONS
MAi>S INUhX
P INDEX
PCPEX
151 fc..v;liJ5lLilNi>
MASS INDEX
PIND£X
PCPEX
152 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
1-tPtX
153 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
	 	 H INUCA
PCPEX
154 EMISSIONS
	 M M S S I N D fc X
PINDd/X
POPEX
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
iai EMISSIONS
NASS INDEX
PINDEX
«- 	 — 	 PUMEX " ' - 	 * 	
TCTAL.
87.
O.OO
o.oo —
0.01
90.
o.oo
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
O.OJ
1362.
0.02
0.05
U . U 1
4A.
0.00
0.00
0.00
133.
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
	 0 .'0
-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
183 EMISSIONS
MASS INOLX
H 1 N L) t A
PCPEX
205 EMISSIONS
MASb INDcX
PINOtX
POPEX
MASS INDtX
PINDEX
POPEX
209 EMS SICKS
MASS INDfcX
P INDEX
210 EMISSIONS
MAiSS INQEX
— ^- - . •if™1 - •
PGP EX
211 EMISSIONS
* . A rf— . •*- »•..»•* *"• *. X
P INDEX
PQPfcX

	 2. £. i fc .yi .; o j i u i-ic
MAi>S INDEX

PCPEX
230 E V ISS IONS
MASS INDEX
P INDtX
TOTAL

1618.
0.03
0.00
0.00
1648.
•" Oi03 ~
0.05
0.10
7 UoO .
0.11
0.22
0.04
44 .
o.oo
0.00
C". O'O 	
7-^6.
0.01
ai*> ~*
* V J-'
0« 0 1
2A£9.
0M n-. ,,.,, ,,.,,,
• U -4-
0.08
0.01
-..••.„ 3
0. 04
0.07
O.01
305.
O.OO
. 0.01
	 o.oi 	
PM

0.
0.0
C.O

1643.
C . 03
0.05

0 .
c.o
0.0

o.
0.0
c.o
1.
0.00
	 A A 	
* \J V
1590,
9.,,,,o..;s 	 	
0.05

	 . --Q-r 	
C.O
c.o

17.
0.00
c.oo
SO2

0.
0.0
C * 0

o.
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0.0

0 .
c.o
c.o

0.
0.0
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735.
0.01
n IT

£74.
e,. fj I 	
C.02

	 --0 • • •
0.0
c.o

0.
c.o
c.o
NOX

0.
0.0
. 0

0.
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0.0

0.11
0.22

<4.
0.00
0.00
0,
0.0
6f-

265.
n n n
0.01

•-2290 .
0.04
0.07

0.
0.0
0.0
CO

1618.
0.03
• u u

0.
• w
0.0

,
o.o
0.0

0.
0,0
0.0
0.
o.o
o o

Oo
n n
0.0
.
0 »
0.0
0.0

0.
o.o
0.0
HC

0.
0.0
6n
V V

0.
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O.O

-»• - - --
0.0
0*0

0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
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0.
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0.0

o
0.0
0.0

2 oti • ^Q
0.00
0.00

-------
TABLE  X«
CCNTINUE-D
SOURCE
CATEGORY
234



237



244


247



249



262



	 	 2 '6 3


267


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEx
POPEX
EMISS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINDdX
PGPEX
EM IbblONS
MASS INDEX
. PINDEX
POPEX
EMISS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
HUFr;*
EMISSIONS
I*ASS INDEX
	 F INOcA
POPEX
EMISSIONS
••~WASS 'INDEX
PINDEX
-POPEX
LMISSICNS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDcX
— crT-j-Ji- x 	
TOTAL

13 1 .
0.00
o.uo
C.OO
34.
U.UU
0.00
0.00
4 1^ .
0.01
0.01
0.03
219.
0.00
0.01
I/ . U 1
263.
0.00
0.00
0.01
€51 .
.01
0.03
0.01
0.04
0. 10
0.02
5050.
O.Cd
0.20
	 O. 05 	
PM

0.
0.0
C.U

0.
c.u
C.O

'i 14.
0.01
C.01

219.
C.OO
C.01

0.
C.O
v * u

72.
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C.OO
1 ii "7 -— 	
Jl H 1 »
C.OO
C.OO

50.
C.OO
C.OO
S02

0.
C.O
o.u

0.
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C.O

0 .
0.0
0.0

0.
C.O
0.0

0.
C.O
• u

779.

0.03

0,04
0.09

5000.
C.08
C.20
NCX

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
-o.o
0.0

.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
• \J

0.

0.0
	 	 	 	 -A--! 	 	
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
o.o
CO

0.
o.o
0.0

0.
	 o.o
0.0

1 1
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
81 v f> 	
fe \J

0.
9, n 	

0.0
n 	
0*0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
HC

131.
0.00
	 o.oo 	

34.
o .00 	 • 	
o.oo

• ••" -1- 	 —
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

2€3.
0.00
en n


0.
ei n 	 	

0.0

0.0
0.0
.,
o« °
0.0 °
0.0

-------
TABLE  X.
CCNTINUED.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
268 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INUfcX
PCPEX
301 EMISSIONS
MAbb 1NULX
PINDEX
PQPEX

3Ub EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
306 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PuP£X
333 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PCPEX
345 EMISSIONS

WTvpo 1 IV U t A
PINDiiX
PCPEX
*» O t"liil.LiN3
fcASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
347 UV ISSICNS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
_ 	 __ 	 —_ 	 PCFirx 	
TOTAL
5900.
0.09
0 . 24
0.05
173.
0.00
0.01
0.01

•» *J 9 .
0.02
0.03
0.05
40J.
0. 01
0.01
. 02
1560.
0.02
0.04
13.


0.00
0.00
i- _—
0.00
o.uo
0.00
26.
0 . 0 0
c.oo
PM
0.
0.0
G.O

173.
0.00
C.01


599 .
C.02
0.03

403.
0.01
0.01
£48.
0.00
• O i
13.


C.OO
'-• " 	
C.OO
' 0 . 0 C

2c.
C.OO
c.oo

S02
NCX
5SOO.
C
0


C
0



C
0


0
0

0


e.

0

C
C


0
C
.09
• 
-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
349



350



351
,.

352



354



361
•

o/-i


3fc9


EMISSIONS
WASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MAbb INOkX
PINDEX
POPEX
EM 15b ILiNb
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX .
PINDEX
HUHt X
EMISSIONS
M.ASS INDEX
p1 INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
M"A S S i iV) O b X
P INDEX
PCPEX
EM IS i: IONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
fc«I5S IONS
MASS INDEX
PINOtX
TCTAL

3710.
0.06
U.ll
0.23
1 120.
0.02
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.02
' 0.04
4C8.
C.01
0.01
u . u^
54.
0.00
0.00
0.00
967.
0 .02
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
215.
0.00
0.01
	 o-rQ-i 	
PM

3710.
O.C6
• c. 11

1 120.
C.02
C.03

C 5 / .
C.01
C.02

408.
0.01
0.01

54.
c.oo
.00

S67.
C.03

0.00
C.OO

215.
0.00
0.01
SO2

0.
C.O
— o.o

0.
0^0
c.o

0 .
c.o
0.0

0.
c.o
c.o

0.
c.o
. 0

0.
U . V
0.0
n j.
0.0
c.o

0 .
c.o
0.0
NOX

0.
o.o
0.0

0.
— o.o
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
* u

0.
0.0
	 B-. 	
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
CO

0.
o.o
	 VrQ 	

0.
	 0-5-0- 	 - 	 -
0.0

0 •
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0


0.
0.0
•
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
HC

0.
0.0
	 O.O " •

0. '
	 » o "
0*0

O -*
o.o
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0


0.
0.0
	 9-, 	
0.0
0.0

o.o* w
0.0

-------
TABLE  X,
CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
399 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
KiNOtX
PCPEX
400 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
4ui tMIiSluiNS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PQPEX
402 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
405 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX -.
P Ls>4iJc./\
PCPtX
425 EMISSIONS
PIND5X
POPEX
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
PUPEX
427 LMISSIONS
MASS IVDfcX
P INDEX
... 	 	 	 PCPC.X 	
TOTAL
56764.
0.89
1.11
0.33
25540.
0.40
0.50
0.20
0. 10
0.16
0.07
5735.
0.09
0. 17
^J • ^^ ^^
173d6.
0.27
. i U
0.31
1009.
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
230157.
3.61
	 O'laj-
PM
22C60.
0.35
C. 6d
9 CO 7.
0.14
0.28
C.07
0.13
0.09
C.I 7
0.
C.O
	 f\ 	 „.„.„..,.
« v
242.
- - coo
0.01
C.01
0.02
36C57.
C.57
1.11
SO2
0.
0.0
	 • 	 • 	 • 	 - 	 €"• 	 0 	
128.
• - -• o.oo 	
0.01
c.oo
0.00
1 .
0.00
0.00
17384.
0.27
0.
C 0
0.0
0.0
C.O
0.
0.0
0.0
NCX
254.
0.00
» C 1
190.
	 0 .00 	
0.01
0.00
0.00
2, -
0.00
0.00
2.
0.00
Onn
0.
Go
0.0
	 O
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
CO
6002.
0.13
' * U *J
3143.
"7 0 5
0.00
0.01
0.00
49.
0.00
0.00
0.
0.0
0^ o
767.
0. n i
0.00
0 A
0*0
0.0
194100.
3.04
0.11
HC
26448.
0.41
9ft !? 	
13O72.
1 »cU
0.21
0.02
0.02
190.
0.00
O.OO
0.
0.0
Q Q
0.
0.0
o
0.0
0.0
O. o
0.0 w
0.0

-------
TABLE X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
429 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINUhX
PCPEX
433 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
<*J<» tMIi>5»lONS>
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
435 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
H INDEX
HliHt X
436 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PCPEX
437 EMISSIONS
.^ 	 — MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PUPEX
= 	 4' 38 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
POPtX
440 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
-: 	 — 	 — — — • 	 n n is F x 	
TCTAL
2180.
0.03
0.06
0.03
430.
U.01
0.02
0.01
0.36
0.73
0.27
14506.
0.23
0.11
u . Go
84575.
1 .33
* 90
0.32
113.
0.00
C.OO
-> i «
0.00
0.01
0.01
7.
0.00
0.00
PM
1 719.
0.03
• o.os 	
206.
C.OO
C.Ol
0.31
0.61
3425.
C.05
0.11
C.44
• O /
113.
n — n n
C.OO
±2} 1 t
0.00
C.OO
7.
C.OO
0.00
SO2
0.
c.o
	 cvo 	
224.
0 .00
0.01
C.05
0,12
0.
0.0
C.O
0.
0.0
0.
f Q 	
0.0
	 guf, 	
0.00
0.00
0.
C .0
c.o
NOX
2.
0.00
	 0-5-00 	
0.
1111 — O?C "•
0.0
0 .
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
o.o
0.
0.0
o.
	 Q * Q 	
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
CO
131.
o.oo
	 0*00 	
0.
O.O 	
0.0
0 .
0.0
0,0
11081.
0.17
0.01
56364.
.CL.88
0.
	 ft,- Q 	 = 	
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
HC
328.
0.01
.01 	
0.
	 0-7-0 	
0.0
0.0
0,0
0'.
0.0
o.o
0.
0.0
Q 0
0.
	 0,0 	 , 	 —
0.0
o.o
0.0
o. %
0.0
o.o

-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
463 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
UNUEX
POPEX
471 EMISSIONS
MASS INDCIX
PINDEX
POPEX
4/2 EKISS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
*73 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
HUPEX
474 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
I-1 1 INL/C. A
PCPtX
475 EMISSIONS
— — MA,Si> liNUl-A.
PINDEX
POPEX
— — — — — — — — i*7t> r r». i o .3 i L> N ^
.VASS INDEX
P INDEX
PCPF. X
477 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
p INDEX
TOTAL
524.
0.01
0.02
0.02
301 .
0.00
0.01
0.02
61. 	 - •
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.
0.00
0.00
0.00'
774.
0.01
. 0 si.
0.04
233.
0.01
0.01
	 	 	 	 	 Of) 	
0.00
€,00
0.01
31451 .
0.49
0,05
PK
£24.
C.01
	 C. 02 	 •'
201 .
C. 00
C.01
c.oo
c.oo
6.
0.00
c.oo
774.
C.01
233.
C.Ol
C.OO
0.00
0^02
C.O 3
SO2
0.
C.O
0.
.0
C.O
t 	
0.0
C.O
0.
C.O
0.0
0.
0.0
ft \J
0.
• Q ^ Q— . 	 	
C.O
0.0
C.O
15.
c.oc
0.00
NCX
0.
0.0
	 0-5 0 	
0.
• V
0.0
1 »
0.0
0*0
0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
en
C.
O • 0
0.0
0 .
0.0
0.0
0.
o.o
0.0
CO
0.
0.0
• V
0.
91 ft
' WV
0.0
. v — . ,-
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
O.
0.0
* w
0,
0 O
0.0
0 j
0.0
0.0
30475.
0.48
0.02
HC
0.
0.0
. O
0.
On
0.0
O.
o.o
o.o
0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
en
# V
0.
0 0
0.0
0 •
0.0
0.0
M
0. w
0.0
0.0

-------
TABLE  X*
CCNTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
478



479



4Kb


494



495



498


HVV


500


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
HOPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPtiX
fcM IbS 1UNS
MASS INDEX
PINDfeX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
F3 INDEX
HOHtX
EMISSIONS
KASS INDEX
M1NDEX
PQPEX
EMISSIONS
V:A5S INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
t MISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PGPEX
EMISSIONS'
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
— Pf,P!-'X 	
TOTAL

7.
0.00
u.uu
0.00
16.
" U.UU
c.oo
0.00
0.07
0.17
0.32
85.
0.00
0.00
(j • 0 y
2895.
0.05
0.09
0.07
t.
i .00
0.00
0.00



0.
	 o — o 	
0.0
•
0.0
o.o

0.
0.0
o.o
HC

0.
0.0
	 0.0 	

0.
o.o • - •—
0.0

.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
Qn


0.
	 f\ f\
0.0

0.00
0.00

0. o
0.0 °^
0.0

-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
502



504



620


522


523




524



	 525


527




EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
I-' iNOtiX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
F INDEX
POPEX
EM 1 S3 IONS
MASS INDEX
P1NDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
P' (_>P C_A
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX

NDtX
PCPEX
fcMISSICNS

<*i A .3 is 1 lx u c. -s
F INDEX
HOPEX
MASS INDfcX
H INDEX
PQPtX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PI NDtX
TOTAL

3.
0.00
0.00
0.00
1 1 .
0.00
0.00
0.00
210.
0.00
0.01
0.01
<567,
0.02
0 .02
0 . 0 1
155.
0.00

• V/ VJ
0.00
9 •
	 fi 	 HH-1 	
0.00
0.00
	 .3 Q « 	
0.00
0.00
0.00
101 1 *
0.02
0.03
PM

3.
0.00
Q~^O 0

11.
C .'O 0
c.oo

i 10 .
c.oo
C.01

397.
0.01
C.01
155.
C.OO

• u u

9.
	 	 	 Q ..Q 0— —
0.00

0.00
o.oo

1C03.
C.02
C.O 3
S02

0.
C.O
	 0 tO 	

0.
• O
C.O

*
C.O
0.0

0.
C.O
0.0
0.
0.0

. u

0.
Q n 	
C.O

C.O
C.O

5.
c.oc
0.00
NOX

C.
0.0
-rrw 	

0.

c.c

*
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
o.c
0.
o.c
8f\
* U

0.
	 6-s-O 	
0.0

0.0
0.0

3.
0.00
o.co
CO

0.
0.0
hrv 	

0.
1 • U
0.0

•
0.0
0.0

300.
0.00
0.00
0.
0.0
90
* VJ

0.
0«0
0.0
	 "*0
0.00
0,00

0.
o.o
0.0
HC

0.
o.o
Brt,,


0.
9, n
' V w
0.0

0.0
o.o

270.
0.00
0.00
0.
o.o
On


0.
0 0
0.0
o
0.0
0.0
,_
o. 3
o.o
0.0

-------
TABLE  X.    CONTINUED.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
52d



530



a.5 1


533


541



544





b47


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INUbX
PINDEX
PCPEX
hM ISS lUNb
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX -
P INDciX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEA
PGPEX
EMISSIONS
y A s s INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPfcX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDtX
PHPtrX 	
TOTAL

6625.
0. 14

C.47
5S6.
O.02
0.03
0.06
15b(J.
0. 02
0.05
O.C8
28.
0.00
0.00
U • 0 0
129.
0.00
.00
0.00
2.
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
1400.
0.02
0. 04
	 o . oa 	
PM

8C25.
0.14
O + cL i

3 ^ W •
	 C.02 	 ' 	 ~
C.03

1 500.
C.02
0.05

2.
0.00
0.00
129.
C.OO
• U \J

2.
0.00

	 49 . 	
c.oo
c.oo

1400.
C.02
C.04
SO2

0.
C.O
	 e— o 	

0.

0.0

0 .
C.O
C.O

2.
0.00
c.oo
0.
C.O


0.
r n 	
0.0

Q
0.0
C.O

0.
0.0
0.0
NOX

c.
0.0


0.

0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

IS*
0.00
0.00
0.
0.0
en


0.
f> . n 	
0.0

Q
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
CO

0.
0.0


0.
	 o.o 	
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

4.
0,00
0.00
0.
0.0
en


0.
	 Q- 0 	
0.0
•
Q
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
HC

0.
0.0
	 o»o 	

0.

0.0

o . - - •
0.0
0.0

2.
o.oo
0.00
0.
o.o
Go


0.
0.0

	 0-. 	
0.0
0.0
I-1
0. co
0.0
0.0

-------
TABLE  X,
CONTINUED.
SOURCE
CATEGORY

54o EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
H INDCA
POPEX
551 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDeX
POPEX
D S> y EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
POPEX
560 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PGi-'llA
579 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX

3 INDEX
POPEX
582 EMISSIONS

MMOO INUt-A
PINDEX
PCPEX

	 — 589 e M 1 o i> lUIMo
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
KUPEX
590 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
_ 	 — 	 PHPEX 	
TOTAL


539.
0.01
0 .02
0.03
9320.
0.15
0.34
0.10
0.01
0.03
0.00
302*.
0.05
0. 09
u. 01
79.
0.00

• VJ v
0.00
252.

« O U
0.01
0.01
	 1 fi lj 	
0.00
0.00
0 . 00
10.
0.00
0.00
	 u . GO 	
PM


£39.
0.01
c .02 •

3500.
0*05
C.ll

c *j 0 *
0.01
0.03

3023.
C.05
C.09

0.
C.O



2£2.
6- f\ n

C.O I

IT
0.00
0.00

10.
c.oo
c.oo
SO2


0.
0.0
— c.o —

5£20.
.09
C.24

C.O
0.0

0.
0.0
C.O

0.
0.0
6. o , .
• u

0.
f\ f\
\J * U
. o.o

o
c.o
0.0

0, .
o.o
c.o
NOX


0.
0.0
• o —

0.
. o ••
0.0

0.00
0.00

1.
0.00
0.00

0.
0.0



0.
9n ...
. ^
o.o

Q
0.0
0.0

0.
o.o
c.o
CO


0.
o.o
1 * U

0.
. u
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.
o.o
0.0

0.
0.0
n n


0.

* V
0.0

Q
0.0
o.o

0.
0.0
0.0
HC


0.
0.0
• \f

0.
en
* I/
0.0

0.0
o.o

0.
0.0
0.0

79.
0.00
f^ ^\ f\


0.
en

0.0


0.0
0.0
1-
u 	
0. &
0.0
0.0

-------
TABLE X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
591



592



593


595


60S


610



	 	 o 11


612



EMISS IONS
MASS INDEX
H I NUt A
POPEX
EMISSIONS
VAbb INUbX
F- INDEX
POPEX
EM 155 IUNS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PDPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
p INDEX
POPfcX
EMISS IONS
MASS IND6X
PINDEX
POPEX

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
HGPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDtX
P INDEX
POPEX
TOTAL

20.
0.00
0.00
0.00
£932.
u.uv
0.10
0.03
/Ut>.
0.01
0.02
0.00
25910.
0.41
0.80
. 23
42.
0.00
. UU
0.00
1537.
0.05
0.01

0.05
0. 1 1
0.02
13295.
O.29
0.55

PM

20.
0.00
-•c.oo 	

5 "532.
C.Ov
0. 16

7Uo.
0.01
C.02
•
25910.
0.41
C.80
42.
C.OO
8f\ f\ 	
» U VJ

0.05

. .... ••» A a 1 .
0.05
C. 11

18295.
0.29
C.56

SO2

0.
C.O
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0 .
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
— n
. w
0.
6-rrA 	
0.0

	 Q-m 	
0.0
0.0

0. .
0.0
C.O

NOX

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

C.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0

0.
Q . U
0.0

— Ow
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

CO

0.
o.o
-5-9 	

0.
. 0
o.o

•
0.0
0.0

0*
0.0
o.o
0.
0.0
• V
0.
	 6-.-O 	
0.0
.
Q
0.0
0 .0

0.
0.0
0.0

hC

0.
0*0
-₯-6 	

0.
• o •- -
0.0

* - ... — ...
0.0
0.0

0.
0*0
o.o
0.
0.0
en

0.
o o
0.0

o .
0.0
0.0
IT
0. o
0.0
0.0


-------
TABLE  X,
CONTINUED.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
614
6 15

b 15
617
632
633

_ 	 — 53*-
637

EMISSIONS
JWASS INDEX
P 1NUEA
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
" 'MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
LM ISS IQNS
MASS .INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
F-UH t X
EV-ISSIGNS
MASS INDEX
F I NDcX
POP6X
EMISSIONS
MASS INiDEX
PINOEX
PCPEX
**( 1 ^ c I U 1^ S
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDtX
PINDtX
TCTAL
899.
0.01
0,03 	
0.00
4103.
0. 06
0.13
0.05
1 7J34.
0.27
0.53
0. 10
46295.
0.73
1 .42
2 . ^v
3290.
0.05 -
U * A U
0.21
25241 .
• HO
0.99
0.26
(j r. -f (j f
0. 15
0.37
0.14
361639.
•b.67
0.73
	 O.S4 	
PM
£99.
C.01
0.03
4 103.
0.06
C.13
17^34.
C.27
C.53
46295.
0.73
1.42
3290.
C.05
V> • i V
f06.
» u A
0.02
	 (: 3 * —
0.00
y.oo
3414.
C.05
0. 10
SO2
0.
0.0
	 G"r6 	
O.
0.0
c.o
- "" 	 0.
0.0
c.o
0.
c.o
0.0
0.
0.0
. u
22447.
C.91
	 7'COt3 » 	
0.12
0.31
7322.
0.11
C . 3 C
NCX
0.
0.0
	 o*c —
0.
-5-6 	
o.o
	 o *•• '
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
0.
o.c
. 0
20S7.
..-u J
0.07
	 1 6 1 4 • 	
0.03
0.05
16 16.
O.C3
0.05
CO
0.
0.0
-rv 	
0.
-i"O— —
0.0
1 • O»
0.0
0*0
0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
* u
0.
0*0
	 0
0.0
0.0
344490.
5.40
0.20
HC
0.
0*0
8, rt
• u
0.
• u
\ a.o
1 •
0.0
o.o
0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
* -
0.08
O.OS

-------
X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
638



639



642


645



646



647


	 : 	 • o**o


649



EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
UNUbX
PGPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INULX
PINOEX
PGPEX
kMlSblUNS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
POPEX
EMISS ICNS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
f-UHtA
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INuJEX
FOPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
I-OPEX
tMlbilLiNS
MASS INDtX
FINDEX
PDPEX
fcNlSSICNS
MASS INDEX
H INDdX
H U*- fc X
TOTAL

£108.
0.08
0. 16
0.04
69.
u.uu
0.00
0.00
Ji!HO.
0.05
0.05
0.01
3000.
0.05
0.05
u • u 1
389.
0.01
0.01
0.00
153.
1 . tru
0.00
o.oc
Z^jfc »
0.00
0.00
0.00
69,
0.00
0.00

PM

2£9.
C.OO
C . 0 1 ~

0.
ti .0
c.o

0.
0.0
0.0

0*
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
• O

0.
0.0

c.o
0.0

0.
0.0
c.o

502

3740.
0.06
-O-.TS —

0.
0.0
0.0

.
c.o
0.0

0.
0.0
c.o

0.
0.0
• (J

0.
r — n
0.0

0.0
c.o

0.
0.0
c.o

NCX

88.
o.oo
	 o.oo —

C.
0.0
0.0

.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0


0.
o — n
o.c

0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

CO

983.
0,02
	 o.oo —

0.
0.0
0.0

•
o.o
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
o.o


0.
9. n 	
0.0
	 Q 	
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

HC

23.
-0.00
	 OTtro 	

69.
o .00 — • 	
0.00

J2.OO . • 	
0.05
0.05

3000.
0.05
0.05

389.
0.01


153.
	 ft-arfVfl 	
O.OO
	 gj^j 	
0.00
0.00

69. H
0.00 M
O.OO


-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED,

SOURCE
CATEGORY
650



651
.


6S7



658


677




692




y o


706





EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
PINOEX
POPEX

EM ItiS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
*ASS INDEX
P1NDEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX

1 INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS

P INDEX
POPEX
tM |- f f- «• p f^ *7 — . —
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
-PGPE-X 	

TOTAL

128.
0.00
o.oo •
0.00
12.
v * O 0
o.oo
0.00

2055C I . "
3.22
1 .67
0.43
33061.
0.52
I .27
O • 9o
8.
0.00

. oo
0.00
666.
en i
0.02
0.04
1 97 »
o.oo
O.Oi
0.01
15.
O.OQ
0.00
	 &v-3-e —
I
PM

0.
0.0
.. 	 -e-i-O 	

0.
u • w
c.o

...
- • • • 0 . • • '
0.0
c.o

2€JO.
0.04
O.Ob
a.
c.oo

• u u

£66.
Qn i
0.02

l"~ 7
0.00
0.01

0.
c.o
G.O

SO 2

0.
0.0
	 e-5-o- 	

12.
\J v U \J
C.OO


	 3^'93 1 *
0.58
1.50

27337.
0.43
1.11
0.
0.0
6' /\
• u

0.
Sj n-
0.0

o
0.0
c.o

15. .
C.OO
c.oo

NOX

0,
0.0
-rv 	

0.
Q — ^J
0.0


.. . _ IJtJJUJ-
0.04
0.08

2167.
0.03
0.07
0.
0.0
eLJ A ,
• u

0.
Gf\
0.0

o
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

CO

0.
0*0
hriJ 	

0.
w • v/
0.0



2.60
O.10

0.
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0_L A
9 \J

0.
Qn
0.0
.
0 4.
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0,0

HC

128.
0.00


0.
41 * V
o.o



0.0
0.0

927.
0.01
O.OI
0.
0.0
0n
* u •

c.

0.0

0 j.
0.0
0.0
1-
•~
0. u>
0.0
0.0

-------
TA6LE  X.
CONTINUED-.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
714
730

^31
737
739
741

	 • 7<*3
744


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINUeX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS 1NULX
PINDEX
POPEX
tMlbblONb
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PGPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
' P INDEX
POPfcX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
p. MISS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPLX
EMISS IONS
MASS INDEX
PINDtX
— PUP LA
TOTAL
- 232.
0.00
0.00
a.
o.oo
o.oo
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
7643.
0.12
0.22
o
468.
0. 01
\j » 0 1
0.00
679.
.01
0.01
0.00
OoeTO.
0.22
0.22
0.33
574*
0.01
0.01

PM
0.
0.0
— CTO 	
0.
	 o.o 	 —
c.o
0.00
C.01
17.
0.00
c.oo
0.
c.o
• 0
0.
. v
0.0
	 t-fl -t 	 	
0.00 ,
c.oo
0.
0.0
c.o

SO2
229.
C.OO
	 O'.Oi 	
5.
0.00
0 •
0.0
c.o
3925.
0.06
0.16
0.
C.O
• u
0.
C.O
0.0
0.0
0.
c.o
0.0

NGX
3.
0.00
	 0 .00 	
3.
	 o.oo —
0.00
'-• • 0.
0.0
0.0
204.
0.00
0.01
0.
0.0
0.
Ql — «- 	
0.0
	 Q-m 	
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0

CO
0.
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 . -
0.0
o.o
0.
0.0
en
0.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0

HC
0.
0.0
0.
0.0
0.0
0.0
3497.
0.05
0.06
468.
0.01
ei n i
679.
	 A- 	 . 	 . 	 __
O . 0 1
13725. 	 ' 	
0.22
0.22
574. H
0.01 **
0.01


-------
TA81.E  X,     CCNTINUEO.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
745



746




7«f 7



748
...


749


7£0


'31


752





EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
M1NUEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INUtX
PINDSX
POPEX

t M 1 55 I OK S
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
fUl-'t. A
t'MISSIQNS
MASS INDEX
• INDEX
PUPEX
EMISSIONS
MAS>5 INOcA
PINDEX
POPEX
t M 1 O .31 U IN S
MASS INDEX
f- INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDLX
PINDEX
POPilX 	
TOTAL

38307.
0*60
O.bl
1.14
4531.
0 • 07
0.07
0. 13

3 1 3 * •
0.05
0.05
O.CS
28V.
0.00
O.OO
u • 00
58702.
0.92
. y*
0.37
1935.
• UJ
0.03
0.01
- • - A O*V?M • •-—
**^.O * O *
0.67
0.6d
0.26
2230.
0.03
0.04
	 0»01 	
PM

0.
G.O
C.O

0.
0,0
C.O


0 *
0.0
0.0

0.
C.O
C.O

0.
0.0
e. f\ . ..-. , .
m U
0.
0,0
f\ —
V .
C.O
0.0

0.
C.O
C.O

SO 2

O.
0*0
C.O

0.
* V
C.O


•
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0.
C.O
• u
O.
0.0
Ql -
- •
C.O
0.0

0.
0.0
o.o

NOX

0.
0*0
. O

0.
. O
0.0


*
0.0
0.0

0.
o.o
0.0

0.
0.0
9m f\
• \J
0.
0.0
n
VJ .
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

CO

0.
0.0
1 * u

0.
.0
0.0


•
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

0*
0.0
9.. A ,_,„. 	 	
*v
0.
0.0
91. . . M.
1 *
0.0
0.0

0.
0.0
0.0

HC
. • - • «-
38307.
0.60
0-11. A |
V O 1

4-581.
n 07

0*07

31 "^O .

0*05
0.05

289.
0.00
0.00

58702.
0.92
9. O A
*Vf —
1935.
0.03
A o 0-7 e»
•vdOrOi "
0.67
0.68
M
2230. ^
0.03
0.04


-------
TABLE   X,
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
758
760

ft> I
762
776
782

	 	 	 7 b J
7<35


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPfcX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX -
PINDEX
f UK t A
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOtX
POPEX
hKli>SICN5
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
p INDEX
— FUPtX
TOTAL
876.
O.01
O.O1
0.03
477.
U.Ui
0.0 I
0.01
0.41
0.39
0.52
4118.
O.06
0.06
0 » 0 ^
85.
0.00
• 00
0.00
4492.
' . C /
0.0*
0.1 i
1 .
0.00
0*00
0.00
301 .
0.00
O.Oi
0 * OO
PM
0.
c.o
	 — cvo 	
0.
c.o
0.0
C.16
C.30
828.
0.01
0.03
23.
c.oo
« uu
1046.
0 0 rt — — " ~
C.03
0,00 .
C.QO
74.
0.00
C.OO

S02
0.
C.O
0.
0.0
c.o
1003*
0.02
0.04
210.
0.00
0.01
4.
0.00
6-v A C\ •—
0.
c.o
0.00
0.00
Jl .
c.oo
c.oo

NOX
0.
0.0
	 : — 0*0 	
0.
— 	 0T6 	
0.0
•
0.01
0*03
167.
0.00
, 0.01
4.
0.00
n nn
123.
0.00
0.00
0.00
37.
0.00
0.00

CO
0.
0.0
	 &TT& 	
0.
-g-0 	
0.0
1 40OO *
0.22
0.01
1664.
O.O3
O.OO
31.
O.OO
o oo
3077,
— - - • O . 0 5 - ••
0.00
O.OO
0.00
122.
0.00
0.00

HC
876.
O.OI
.01 	
477.
• Or 	
0.01
GO2 . 	
0.01
0.01
1249.
0.02
0.02
23.
0.00
O OO
246.
0 00
0.00
0.00
O.OO
t-1
	 . — 1-1 	 --
37. °*
0.00
0.00


-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
796
797

au«£
821
822
823

— 	 825
826

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINUtX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASb INDEX "
PINDEX
FOPEX
fcM H»S IUNS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDLX
PINDEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P 1 t^itj E A
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
"iASS INDEX
P INDEX
PCPEX
C ml f -C -^ T n ftr 1 - — — -
t_ M 1 i> -> 1 UIH J
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
TOTAL
12376.
0.19
0.21
0.22
17.
0,00 •
0.00
0.00
10.
0.00
0.00
0.00
134.
0.00
0.00
Q » GO
137514.
2.ie>
3.09
5.49
49237.
• f I
1.72
2.73
1 C 1 J, Q 	
4 »^ 4 T u •
0.24
0.36
0.56
37,
0.00
0.00
PM
2239.
0.05
— 	 C'»-i-« —
2.
o.oo
0.00
1 .
c.oo
0.00
11.
o.oo
c.oo
11297.
0. Id
u • «j *j
5672.
4 U V
C.17
	 2950 	
C.OS
0.09
24.
C.OO
C.OO
SO2
£72.
0.01
	 	 OrO-2 	
2.
C .0 0
c.oo
0.00
c.oo
23.
0.00
C.OC
6C719.
0.95
<£. • "r O
32219.
f '""I
W * 3 1
1.31
	 92 . 	
C.OO
0.00
0 . .
0.0
c.o
NCX
459.
O.01
.01 — 	 •—
13.
• CO
o.oo
0.00
0.00
3.
0.00
o.oo
1709.
-0.03
* uu
68C7.
e« I< t
0.21
	 yrr.^.i. 	 .
0. 12
0.24
9.
0.00
o.co
CO
4023.
O.O6
• • o o
0.
• u
0.0
o.oo
o.oo
95.
0.00
0.00
51292.
o.ao
91 n TI
* U «7
2837.
e--™fy& 	
0.00
3105
0.05
0.00
2.
0.00
C.OO
HC
3978.
0.06
0.
0.0
0.00
0.00
2.
O.OO
O.OO
12397.
0.19
6r m S7.rt - „. . ...
• 
-------
TABLE   X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
828
829

a JU
331
635
836

-_ 	 :— 337
838
» 	 ; 	 : 	 	 	 — 	 '

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PlNUtX
POP'EX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
t w ti>a IUINS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX

-------
TABLE X.
CCNTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
840
841

842
643
844
845

- d •* t->
847

EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
P INDEX
PCPEX
EM IE SIGNS
I*ASS INDEX
PINDEX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
A
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
INDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
C'AJo tfvllJIlX
PINDEX
POPEX
CM io o 1 U i> *j
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PGPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDtX
--PCPLX 	
TOTAL
85871.
1.35
O.bS 	
0.60
21714.
0. 34
0.20
0.30
JOl 2.
0.05
0.04
0.05
7237.
0. 11
0.07
.10
U035b.
1.26
• I f
I .90
125367.
1...-G TT
• V f
1.16
1.87
** 1 4l ^n f 1 f i ""*
33.6*
11 .65
22.89
29S3/0.
4.63
1.89
	 2 « 6S 	
PM
5570.
0.09
	 <3"."-t"8- 	 • 	
2447.
C .04
C.08
95 .
0.01
0.02
615.
0.01
0.03
21 193.
C.33
ef~K,: ... ->
C.43
i i n tt **
0.17
0.34
633.
0.01
0.03
SO 2
99.
0.00
	 0*00 	
152.
• OO
0.01
" «
0.00
0.00
50.
0.00
€.00
2649. '
0.04
91 1
• Li
882.
r n i
0.04
6\f **7
0.10
C.27
£00.
0.01
0.02
NCX
200.
0.00
*» •«•*—
918.
* Ul
0.03
1 O9 •
0.00
0.00
304.
0.00
0.01
3532.
0.06
	 . ,| nl 	
	 • 1 "i
5297.
OPH
0.17
1Kn°^fi
2.48
4.96
27741.
0.43
Oi-87
CO
59703*
0.94
91 rt "^
12998.
1 to CU
0.01
- _, 0 -,
0.02
O.OO
4334.
0.07
0.00
3S320.
0.55
Oj. O !>
75044.
i 1 a
0.04
i & A a o a <£.
25.84
0.94
213086.
3.34
0.12
hC
19899.
O.31
032
5199.
eft ft
0.08
6ifiO j.
0.01
0.01
1734.
O.O3
0.03
17662.
0.28
aio
. C'O — 	 •' • 	
30019.
O_ fL~r
0.48
-*•> \ f,A 1
5.04
5.14
53210. i-
0.83 *
0.85

-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED
SOURCE
CATEGORY
848
849

UbU
851
852
853
•
	 854
856


EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
MINUhX
POPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOEX
PGPtX
bMIbSIUNb
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDbX
PINDEX
\* UMh X
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
H INDEX
PQPEX
EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINOtX
PCPEX
EMISSIONS
I*ASS INDEX
PINDEX
HOPtX
EMISSIONS
WASS INDEX
P INDEX
-PUPEA
TOTAL
71811.
1 .13
U.J3
0.17
77336.
1 .21
1.60
2.75
y/24.
0. 15
0.20
0.26
32854.
0.52
0.76
1 . i2
1337.
0.02
0. G£
0.03
3180.
1 . 03
0.02
0.02
IcJ55.
0.50
0.32
O.fcS
1075.
0.02
0.02

PM
160.
C.OO
•o.otr
lf.il.
C.02
C.05
1B8.
0.00
C.01
2862.
C.05
C.09
206.
0.00
• U 1
100.
i . tro
C.OO
^w .
0.05
0. 10
94.
C.OO
C.OO

SO 2
98.
0.00
	 c.oo —
3043.
— 0;05 	
0.12
3-sU •
C.01
0.02
7494.
0.12
O.JO
40.
0.00
. \J U
20.
0.00
C.01
0.03
246. .
0.00
0.01

NCX
3493.
0.05
	 Q.lt 	
43107.
	 ^-Q-i^r& 	
1.35
3353.
0.08
O.17
8646.
0. 14
O.27
98.
0.00
0_ f\f\ 	 	
» uo
91.
81 . nn
0.00
g fl o ft * 	
0.03
0.06
263.
0.00
0.01

CO
57079.
0.89
	 O.O3 	
25355.
-J-H.Q 	
0.01
3255*
0.05
0*00
8069.
0.13
0.00
£14.
0.01
0,, , ft-f\
1 » W O
2527.
	 ' — Q . QA 	
0.00
	 1 npfi& * —
0.29
0.01
• 263.
0.00
0*00

HC
10961.
0.17
	 O^ 16 	
4310*
*-. O r
O.07
537 * 	 •- 	
0.01
0.01
5763.
0.09
0.09
479.
0.01
0r (VI-
r* U 1
442.
	 & ot
0.01
	 77Q 1 . 	
0.12
0.12
189. g
O.OO °
0.00
,

-------
TABLE  X.
CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
857 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
HINUtA
PCPEX
358 EMISSIONS
MAbb INDEX
P INDEX
POPEX
ooy t M i;>;> IUNS>
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
PCPEX
861 EMISSIONS
MASS INDEX
PINDEX
TCTAL

1977.
0.03
O.C7 •••""•
0.03
21174.
0.3J
0.09
0.11
2 1 v** o •
0.50
0.51
0.8J
1341 18.
2.89
2.94
PM

245.
0.00
	 o-i-oi

44.
	 c.oo
0,00

0 •
0.0
c.o

0.
0.0
c.o
SQ2

1C61 .
C.02
	 0.04 	

27.
	 • 	 O.OG 	 ' 	
0.00

0 •
0.0
0.0

0.
c.o
0.0
NQX

637.
0.01
TV2 	

986.
	 0*02 	
0.03

o *
0.0
o.o

0.
0.0
0.0
CO

2.
0.00
1 .ou

17010,
	 0<27
0.01

*
0.0
0.0

0.
0*0
0.0
HC

32*
0.00
Onn


3105.
1 *O J
0.05

Jl 9*1 C! *
0.50
0.51

1841 IS*
2.89
2.94
              HUHt A
                                                                                                             (O

-------
I AiJLc XI •
SOURCE
CATEGORY
OHO
622
do!
10
d-- v
66
* is
5 ••• 5
556
63 1
A 0 5
96
629
10.8
637
- - - 	 a
657

t_Hl AtoU AUCR — bULWCL— L
SOURCE-CATEGGKY NAME
HA
EXT
EXT
MIS
XT
EXT
EXT
EXT
Tt< A
TRA
EXT
INO
so«_
SOL
IND
PSL
! RA"
I NO
EXT
INO
EXT
EXT
- CXT
EXT
SOL
EXT
-EXT-
1NO
SW
IND
— LXT
INO
V5MOUI- I  I DEN
PETROL
GOVERN
'tLBC GET
PETROL
HEAVY VEHI
BITUMINOU
STONE QUA
C fs, S i T C i ?'J
OPEN 8URM
Li Me y.-^G
LAQUcIR
CTHEP/.MOT
NATURAL GA
IKO-fi FRCO
L.-L I INVJ c: v AP
PROCESS G
RLS IDUAL
CCM.VERC IAL
ti ITUMINOU
RESICUAL U
ON SITE IN
CCKE
NATURAL C>A
FLUID CRA
MUNICIPAL
ASPHALT 1C
I TOW I NiJO
CTHER/NOT
^ — 1NUEA. Pl-p-fKErt- A » >-• u-
AtiiOUhlES IN — r*iE CECREASING ORDER
OF POPEX. 	



PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO INDICES1 RANKINGS
MI PI PC MI PI PO

GlOOMMcTU PU
G100MMETU CY
CUT STQNE-G
CALCINNC-KQ
GENERAL
SPECIFY IN
SINTERING G
GlOOMMbTl./H«
1 0 U ,v, fr O 1 L H u
10-100MM8TU
GENERAL (F
.VULTIPLE CH
GThEP SCURC
C 1 0 O M M LJ T L* ^Px^ —
SPECIFY IN
X
3.6
2.2
2.9
C . C
2.7
.74
« 4
it 9
.73
• J
,41
.6G
- -- • (7" •*?
i» *_ i-
*.33
3.€
i .C
tso
- le
1 .3
.40
*"* /I
5.7
3.2

	 rzn 	
8.1
3.1
2.9
6.7
1.7
1.7
. \j
1 .9
4.5
1 .4
i ,,„,,„*>„
* •&
1.2
.ao
.61
« ( 6
1.3
.56
1 .2
n; f
«U 1
2.2
2.3
.32
_...._. . 	 r .
.37
.55
.99
	 ,'36 	
.73
t27
1.7

12.
5.5
5.5
•"V'O 	 "'"""" 	 "•""•" 	
3.6
2.8
2.8
^ *5J
2.7
2.3
2.3
J, Q 	
to V
1 ,9
1 .3
1.1
* 1
i » i
.96
.65
.83
d T
•» c J
I 71
, CD
	 '- \
.61
.60
.59
	 .,56 ••
,52
.47
.43

A
1
1
1
_— _
1
2
2
	
1
i
2
X
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
1

	 *—
1
1
1
—
1
1
1
—
1
1
1
I
2
2
1
2
I
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2.
Z
Z
	 4-


i —
1
1
1
	 "
1
1
1
— ______
1
1
1
....... _.. , _
1
i
1
"
Z
Z
z
1
2
2
2
Z
^
Z
z
2
2
2
2
2
M
NJ


-------
TABLE XI.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
36
63
830
7*9
73
97
399
436
4*5
405
at i
838
434
751
eso
796
79
400
737
72
70
45
	 c-i-*
130
746
612
477
	 • 1 u 1 U A I.
CUNTINUtO. 	 - - — 	 	 	 .
SOURCE-CATEGORY NAME
EXT
EXT
EXT
bXT
P St
EXT
EXT
IND
I NO
INO
IND
EXT
IND
PSE
I N:J
TRA
IND
SW
EXT
I NO
IND
R7T
EXT
EXT
EXT
EXT
PSE
INU
S v»
IND
-5 	 TKTT
PERCENT CONTRIBUTION
MI PI
ELEC GEN HhSlUUAL t, 1UUMMB ! U'/HK
INOUST BITUMINGU G 1 OOK.V £T U SP
INOUSTR DISTILLATE
ELEC GEN NATURAL G G 100KM6 TU/HR
HL. 1 RU
INDUST
INDUST
PR I MAR
PR 1 MAR
SECOND
PKlMAR
Ht.i> i w EIN
CCMK/ IN
PRltfAR
PETRO
cT HUL
DIhScL
FCXTD/A
F< I fvt KA
INDUST
PR I MAR
CTrEH/
f i AtU KUU
3ITUMINOU
RESIDUAL
CCKE MET
HAi IN I
STEEL PRO
LEAD SMEL
CUKE-VET
0 r* fcl N tJUfi> H
GFF HIGHtaA
FEED/GRAI
INCINERAT
BITUMINGU
COKE-MET
SPECIFY I
bAbUL i IM urr nivjnwM
INDUST BITUMINGU
INOUST BITUMINOU
ELhC GEN PRCCESS G
-'i. 1 hUL
CCMMER
SURF A
MINE^A
CCMM— I
SECOND
•«i: X . — P 1 -I
3ITUMINOU
ENAMEL
STONb QUA
GRAY 1RC.M
J 1 MJEX . — PG— f
tJKt« i Mi INV>— P
10-100MNBTU
10-10OMMBTU
TGENERAL
ELECT ARC W
REVERB FNC
CTHEP/NCT C
OPNHEARTH N
u it_
SHIPNG/RECE
SINGLE CHAM
SPEC IFY IN
CTHER/NCT C
OVEN ChARGI
10-1 OOMf/BTU
10-100M!«BTU
G100MMB TU/HR
10-100MMBTU
GENERAL
TERT CRUSH/
CUPCLA
.34
.1 1
.35
.42
.28
.89
I .3
.67E-01
.27
* 3 *T
. 11
.36
.67
.15
.5SE-01
.19
I £ 4 E- 0 1
.40
. 12
. i
.32
tss
.24
.72E-01
	 9-p-r.^ A -t- ..
.49
1 .U
.81
«25
.95
.68
1.1
.22
.90
.17
.70
* 2 O
.18
.73
.68
9
.20.
.11
.21
0
. 12 .
.50
.22
.72
.11
1.2
.53
.73E-01
.56
.4aE-Ol
TO INDICES1
PO
• 43
.39
.39
. -17
,34
.33
.33
.32
.32
.31
. 3C
.23
.27
.26
.26
.23
.22
.20
.20
.18
/
. 16
.16
. 15
•*
. 14
. 13
. 12
7 l
.11
RANKINGS
MI PI PO
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
2
J
" — — — — J- —
2
i
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
4-
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
2
3
to
U)
C.
2.
2
2
2
2
2
»•*
2
2
2
2
2
2
£
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

-------
TABLt XT%
SOJRCE
CATEGORY
551
205
o it>
762
402
547
531
103
350
401
635
	 4J =
530
104
JUb
26«
2o7
47**
692
106
527
147
63b
208
S52
	 CUT
<1 INUtU.-

SOURCE-CATEGORY NAME
1 R A
SGL
I NO
IND
i l\U
SW
EXT
IND
I NO
INO
EXT
I NO
IND
INO
EXT
l.NJ
IND
EXT
INO
I ND
INO
SOL
IND
IND
INO
EXT
1 ND
INO
EX/
INO
I NO
TRA
 T — P
blUNc UU«
MUNICIPAL
RESICUAL
CCKE-KET
P P I ,'/ L R
CEMENT MF
BRICK MAN
NATURAL G
EEL ruU
FEED/GRAI
COKE- MET
BITUM INCUS
StEtiL PnU
BRICK MAN
NATURAL G
STONE QUA
r CfkT 1L I L—
H2S04-CCN
H2S04-CON
CN SITE IN
i — r i -i ~~ " f f • n T
C. 1 < -i- n /I^NJ 1
dHASS/ORO
IRON/STEE
PROCESS G
'•EEO/  I VL
MILITARY
IND&.X. — p-e— •




PERCENT CONTRIBUTION
Ml PI
KILNS-CCAL
SOAP/DET SP
CPEN STCKAG
SINGLE CHAM
LlONMBTU/hR
QUENCHING
KILNS
GRINDING-RA
10-100MNb.TU
TRANSFER/CO
OVEN PUSHIN
C OF" "tt N ER AL
DRYING-RAVi
LI OMMBTU/HR
SCREEN/CCNV
UK » t.K~ C,UUl_TC.
CTHER/NCT C
93.0 CCNVER
REVERB FNC
CTHcfr/NCT C
10-100MNBTU
C /" O-F -IE M T K'"^ 'i/ ^-— -~ -
O C NIL t. W 1 fX o J V.
ROTARY CRYE
GIOON..VBTU/HR
GENERAL (T
TN i 1 r* /* 1 1 o i N K
.11
.15
.26E-01
• 27'
.65E-01
.31E-C1
.9CE-01
* 50c-" 0 1
.22E-01
..24E-01
.83E-01
. 1 8 E- 0 1
.98E-01
. 8 1 E- 0 I
. 1 6 E- 0 i
.34E-01
.64E-01
C t. u I
I 7 Si E- 0 1
. 4 7 E- 0 1
j. ? /i r — f) 7
. 1 2 E- 0 1
. 1 0 E- 0 1
.63E-01
	 i_n.r-_ n -i —
.16E-01
.62E-02
.80E-01
1 1 	
.2 1E-01
	 . SUL—U
,t>7E-0
.34
.51E-0
•t 	
1
1
.53
.60E-01
•73E-01
.17
• -~ f^ *- rti *
. w1 OL—0
.43E-0
.46E-0
.16
« 89C~" 0
.34E-0
.16
.18
11 	
1
.31E-0
.61E-0
.13
.24
.20
.44E-0
	 t29£-0
.24E-0
.20E-0
.15
. -. P Q £^— Q
i
1
1
in
~
i
1
1
1
i
1
1
-» 	
.31E-01
Ilo
0 't
. .19E-0
1

TO INDICES1
PO
. 10
.10
•97E-01
— *• ^ 7E—Q1 	
.89E-01
.89E-01
« 8bE-01
.62E-01
. 6 1 E- 0 1
.80E-01
•7 ft f7 (-\ 1
« / **• L. U *
.69E-01
.67E-01
.67E-01
*• /i i~ ^\ «
. c<* L— o l- 	
.f 3E-01
.62E-01
•52E-01
^nr" n i
.49E-01
.49E-01
,40E-01
ft T^ 01
.42E-01
.41E-01
,41E-01
	 1 4pg Q ^ 	
.40E-01
.4QE-01
.40E-01
.„._., ^QC 0 1
.35E-01


RANKINGS
MI PI
2
2
3
— 	 '2. — "
3
3
3
	
3
3
3
3,
3
3
3
•3
3
3
3
3
•9
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
	 =» 	
3
2
3
1 • 2 	 	
3
3
2
	
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
2
3. 	 	 	
2
2
3
— T
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
to

PO
— 2 	
2
3
3
-3-— 	 	 -
3
3
3
—^———
3
3
3
3
3
3
	
3
3
3
3,
1
3
3
3
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
..3
3

-------
TABLc XT.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
543
758
102
937
G57
244
t 1
151
463
306
lei 1
352
611
263
471
/"OU
211
152
47b
dc-c,
339
520
221
1 fv
247
642
426
731
— 	 — ' HI l — Jl .1 <-.
CONTINUtO. ' -• 	 ~ •- 	 "- 	 ~ 	
SOUPCE-CATEGCRY NAME
INO
INO
PSE
EXT
IND
EXT
TRA
IND
cXT
EXT
IND
INO
i NU
TftA
INO
INO
Pbt
IND
IND
EXT
h'bt
EXT
IND
j H'\
INO
IND
INO
1 N J
INO
I NO
I'ND
IND
INO
-c: — TMT
MINhKA
MINERA
MISC
INDUST
PR I MAR
CCK.M/IN
VESSELS
CHtM MFG
LLtiC GtN
CCMMLK
SEXCND
ChEM MFG
ci-ic.?*1 mt- 1>
Alii
FCUO/A
MINEF.A
S Ilk i- A
SECCND
INUliST
i«l l bv,
CHEM MFG
COiMtK
Sc.CC.ND
LIHh MHo
CEMENT' MF
CTHER/KCT
NATURAL G
IKLN PkUO
OIST ILLATE
RESIDUAL 0
PLASTICS
b i ( UM i i\^iij
OISTILLAT
ALUMINUM
FERTIuIZ—
A i*l N' C N I A »SI
CIVIL
FEED/GRAI
STONE QUA
V AKN ibH/1 i
H2S04-CCN
bHASS/JKU
DIST ILLAT
EXhLCSIVE
OISTILLAT
'VLSbhLb Uic;bcL t-Uc.
f-OGO/A CTHEK/NJT
SECOND MISC CAST
ChEM MFG NITRIC AC
-1^*1 Mr • ,v C N I
OTHER/
GEN V./Q
bLAST F
CTVER/N
POPEX 	
IN
IN
ACXID
NUT C
CGN
NC-A
OT C
PERCENT CONTRIBUTION
Ml PI
.SSE-02
. 14E-01
. 3 C £- 0 1
. JSE-01
. 3 I E- 0 I
» 1 i e— 0 1
.42C-02
.62E-02
.63E-02
2 E — 0 l
. bCE-01
,6
-------
TAtJLE XI,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
230
361
438
JO1
6^5
610
249
582
210
522
262
499
476
560
750
61**
4J7
'101
234
128
136
34C
714
795
37V
-- — - .U t 	 M li, -^
	 COT
M'| INUhU.

SOURCE-CATEGGPY NAME
INO
IND
I ND
IND
IND
IND
IND
IND
hXT
INO
EXT
EXT
HCst-
IND
IND
IND
1 ND
IND
IND
IND
PSE
IND
•"F x r 	
IND
EXT
cXT
— rxfy~
IND
INO
Sw
- IN J
IND
T — rrsrC
Mt 1 AL HLA 1 ING U
CKEM'MFG PAINT MFG
FOOD/A GRAIN PRO
PRI.MAR SThEL PRO
CHuM NFMU I U / UK
.ULtfCfiESINGU
1 0-1 OOMVBTU
CTHEP/NCT C
TRANSFER/CO
OTHER /NUT C
MULTIPLE CH
i""l d'^l \ 'f**Uf 	
CUHuL/V r"i^%-
GENERAL
•
a
•
*
•
*
*
*
•
*
»
•
*
*
*
A
*
•
%
*
•
*
'ft
<3
*
*
2 1E-C2 	
4fcE-02
1 5 E- 0 1
25E-02
27E-02
47E-01
24E-C1
41E-G2
1 2 t— G i •
40E-02
14E-O2
2 IE- 02
3 £ E— 0 1
12E-01
12E-01
C 7 fe — 0 2
14E-02
47E-01
i/i r~ n *"" •
<* 1_ •" U i
T'iE-Ol
18E-02
21E-C2
1 IE-01
I It- 01
I -JJH ' " 0 "*
a eh- 03
36E-02
47E-02
t/jp 03
fcfcE-03
•51E-02
.30E-01
•51E-02
.48E-0 I
.47E-0!
.42E-02
,33fc— -Oi—
.78E-02
.30E-02
.36E-02
. JUE--0 1,
.32F.-01
. 17E-01
.34C.-01
• 1 5j £"-0 1
.26E-02
•28E-02
.93E-01
<—. t * f-^ *-•
.31E-C1
•28c-0l
.35E-02
M**j*vn P ., i n ^
.21E-02
.26E-01
•24E-0 1
'~" f" E 0 *
.17E-02
.S4F-02
.54E-02
i Of; ,. 02
. 13E-02



TO INDICES1 RANKINGS
PC MI PI
— » 1 IE-01 	
.1 IE-01
. 10E-01
. IOE-01
- i<536— 02 	
.91E-02
.90E-02
.66E-02
.83E-02
.82E-02
.80E-C2
.58E-.-02
.5TE-02
.54.^-02
f- t, r- f\ / »
* j 4 L— O c.
.£2E- 02
.S2E--02
s 5.2.F.— C 2
,50E-02
.47E-02
A ° F n "
.41E-C2
.37E-02
.36E-02
3 5 F ') °
.c3t-02
•29E-02
,29£-02
„ 28E—02
.25E-02
	 «* 	
4
3
4
	 4 	
3
3
4
1 	
4
4
4
3
3
3
-P
i
4
3
A
3
3
4
rt
4
3
3
5
4
4
5
5
	 «* 	
4
3
4
3
3
4
	
4
4
4
	
3
3
3
i 	
4
3
f
-z.
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
i—
NJ

PO
— 3 	
3
3
3
4
4
4
— 4 	
4
4
4
1 	
4
4
4
' °
4
4
4
4
4
4
A
4
4
/I
4
4
*

-------
TABLE XI »
SOURCE
CATEGORY
r~ 500
135
778
133
730
783
341
112
646
589
82o
7^1
650
1OO
479
524
37
651
730
821
525
677
647
f f
110
	 	 	 • - •*• •.' t \x .t ',.'
CONTlNUtO.
SOURCE-CATEGORY KAMt
IND
EXT
SW
I NO
Sw"
IND
EXT
IND
IND
IND
IND
EXT
INO
PSE
INU
IND
EXT
INO
IND
EXT
IND
EXT
IND
INO
EXT
MiJ
IND
IND
X l
EXT
-c — r\n
SfcCLND
CCV-MEIR
CCMM-I
ChLM MFC
CLL AN
CCMM-I
MINERA
INDLST
XJJU/A
MINERA
PETRCL
MINERA
M 1 N t !•* A
RES I DEN
V1NERA
CLEAN
Pt 1 KCL
PETRCL
INDUST
SECOND
M I N L R A
ELCC GEN
MINERA
C G M M E R
PETROL
INPRUC
RESIOLN
' 'JU <^S A
M I N L R A
ViUJD P
PtTv.CL
r"J ij U i. 1
INDcST
• t'-1 x . — i- I— P
B I T U M I N 3U
INCINERAT
AM^CNIA W
DHYCLEAN1
APARTMENT
CASTABLb
LIQ PETRG
CERAMIC/C
MISCELLAN
GYPSUM MF
L l,v,e i-irG
WJUD
ASPHALT R
LLGP.EASTN
MlbCeLLAN
MISCELLAN
DISTILLAT
GRAY IRCN
ASPHALT M
RESIDUAL
CASTAELE
FLARES
NATURAL G
ANTHRACITE
i-; A i l -4 i- rt •_•
ASPHALT R
PULPOOARD
MISCtLLAN
O I 1 U i»l i IS UU
V.UOD
"T \ni- x . — P •-,—
POP.CENT CONTRIBUTION
MI PI
• KETCRT F1MC 	
L10WMSTU HAN
SINGLE CHAM
REGENERATOR
ST LUC. ARC
FLUE KEO
RAkf/ATL CRY
10-1 OOMf-'fiTU
DRY I NG
PIPE/VALVE-
CALCINEfi .
StCNCHY CRU
DIPPING CNL
CTHER/NGT C
MUMP bE ALS ' '
OTHER-GENL
10-100MN8TU
ELECT INCUC
SPRAYING ON
CIHER/NCT C
G 1 0 0 M V L! T L .' MR
NATURAL GAS
CThEP/NCT C
— f.. -.-^ ,—. . . . . — , .
O IPP 1NG/SPR
F IDEREO^RC-
VESL RELIEF
U. A UT" M C 1 >J :lj K U
VnOCD toASTE
PP. P P"X 	
.56E-03
. 13E-02
,2£E-01
•72E-02
.4VE-03
.20E-02
.22E-02
.4 IE— 03
. 13E-01
.C1E-02
.24E-02
1C— 01
.56E-03
I I l£-ol
.3 7E- 02"
.20E-02
.S7E-03
.2EE-03
7E~ 0 J
. 14E-03
.iee-02
. 77E-03
. C 9 L"~ 0 J
. 19E-03
. 13E-03
.61E-O3
, 13E-03
.24E-02
.49E-03
.81E-03
.14E-02
.93E-03
• 7 5 E — 0 2
.59E-O3
.40E-02
.53E-02
	 • dOfc~03 —
,26E-01
.62E-02
.48E-02
— 01
« 1 1E-02
IllE-01
• 38E— 02
.20E-02
.23E-02
.49E-03
i4.t~-0 J
.2QE-03
,37E-02
•15E-02
• i J !_~"U«i
.49E-03
.30E-03
, 15E-02
* A 7l_™ vJ ii
,6Ub— O3
O"c: 	 p ^
* *_ O *_ ~~ w *s
* «._**• L_™ (J 
-------
lAuLh XU
SOURCE
CATEGORY
fO
706
605
345
~ 7*t-b
533
639
£09
**•.}
649
1 11
591
nu<£
237
579
eS02
jy
590
797
4VO
j»^0"
473
S* 	
IND
I NO
acv.ur\u
INPKCC
MINE* A
FOUC/A
SURF A
MINERA
PETKCL
ChEM MFG
EL fct, vjfcN
PF.TKCL
I NO L S T
M I N t ft A
CHEM MFC
MTNEfcA
INDUST
hLLC GEN
MINtkA
INOtiT
SEC C NO
P f •: I V A t<
SECGND
MI NEK A
vj^M T IK UN
BITUMINOU
PHOSPHATE.
Ffc£D/GKAl
GTHER/'NGT
BRICK MAN
ELCVv-DOioN
EXPLOSIVE
f\.ATUrvAL G
MISCELLAN
tftOOD
GYPSUM MF
ZINC 5 c C
VARNISH M
FIBERGLAS
OPEN BURN
DI S 7ILLAT
GYPSUM XF
INCINERAT
STEEL FOU
LEAD SWfcL
BRASS/6KU
CAS TABLE



PERCENT CONTRIBUTION
MI PI
PCVFRB FfrC 	
OTHEf./NGT C
ORY1 KG
SHIPING/REC
SPfct-'IFY I-1M 	
CURING GAS
rt/CLNTftCLS
HNG3 CONIC
IG^IOONNBTU
CCMPRESK SE
SMALL H/SNDF
OTHEF/NCT C
fC-l r\j«i\#«v.c.
GThEH/NGT C
GTHES/NCT C
KErLSt
G 1 G 0 r- MolL/ nR
CCNVEYING
CCNTKOLLED
INDUCTICN F
it *i c T 1'" i LJ ^ i \
C3 L A 5 ! ! U K N A
EL--IC1 INDUC
CURING GVc.N
	 » HE.— U.J 	
.24E-03
..66E-03
*2eE-03
— . 4CE— 02 —
.44 £-03
.1 IE- 02
.6SSE-03
» 7 lf_— Co
. 1 IE- 02
.33E-03
.3 IE- 03
, jt; —-- f * _ /*• A
» 4 i L— • C 4
.53E-03
. 12E-C2
. IfcE-03
• f l-t_~.U J
. 16E-03
•27E-03
.^4E-04
ti r— A *T
1 1_^ w J
.•c^E-04
. 3 1 E- 04
	 * gg!_ — BrS 	
.61E-03
.13E-02
.55E-03
— *4fat: — 6-2 —
.74E-03
.1 1E-02
.I4E-02
• i J t ~\-' c.
. 11E-02
.61E-03
.&2E-03
ft T r~ f\ ft
• v
7E— 03 	
.36E-03
.35E-03
.33E-03
— c'goc — &3 	
.26E-03
.2*E-03
.24E-03
o j r- f\ ~3
' " ' • •g<5r^ ~H>-j • 	 -
.22E-03
•20E-03
. 18E-03
• (-* ^ rs -3
* i Ljfl " U o
. 15E-03
. 13E--03
. i IE- 03
.'90E--0*
.85E-04
*64C-04
i1 1 r -"j 4.
• C VJ !_ U **•
.35E-04
*21G-0'+



RANKINGS
MI PI PO
^r ^ <— •
5
5
5
, 	
S
4
5
i 	
4
5
5
, 	
" 5
4
5
5
5
5
5
K
5
5
	 9-
5
4
5
,—
5
4
A
A
4
5
5
—
5
4
5
A
5
5
5
— -&-
G
5
*A
5
5
5
	 S 	
5
5
5
' 	
5
5
5
5'
1
5
5
5
G
	 Q» 	
5
5
b
5
5
'MI-MASS  INOLIX,
PI-PINDEX,  PO-PCPEX
                                                                                                               to
                                                                                                               CD

-------
                                                                129
        TABLE XII.  ASSIGNMENT OF RANKS BASED ON PERCENT
                    CONTRIBUTIONS OF EACH OF THE SOURCE-
                    CATEGORIES TO POPEX, PINDEX, AND
                               MASS INDEX

          Range of Percentages                  Rank


                 Index1  £1.0                     1
           0.1    ^ Index  <1.0                   2
           0.01   i$ Index  <0.1                   3
           0.001  ^ Index  <0.01                  4
                 Index  <0.001                    5

          1Value of popex, pindex or mass index

Thus, the assignment of ranks is based on the order of magnitude of

percent contribution to each index.  A source-category having a contri-

bution equivalent to the average of all categories, or 0.44 (100

divided into 227 source-categories) has a rank of 2.  The source-

category representing a median popex contribution of 0.025 (source-

category 463) has a rank of 3.

     Table XIII which was derived from Table XI  shows the number of

point and area source-categories and their contribution to popex for

each of the rank groups.


RESULTS

General Observations

     It should be evident from the construction of popex and its sub-

models that the results of popex estimate specific source-related air

pollution problems in terms of the impact on people.  Sources in the

first rank-group  contribute most to the popex on a percent basis

-------
                                               130
TABLE XIII.  POPEX RANK-GROUPS
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
Number
Point
6
40
63
44
41
ol
source-categories
Area Total
11
13
7
1
1
17
53
70
45
42
Cumula-
tive
total
17
70
140
185
227
Percent
Point
15.05
14.05
2.50
0.189
0.0155
contribution to
Area
62.27
5.71
0.21
0.001
0.0005
Total
77.32
19.76
2.71
0.19
0.016
popex
Cumula-
tive
total
77.32
97.08
99.79
99.98
100.00

-------
                                                                 131






 (Table XIII).   Seventeen source-categories of rank one are responsible




 for over three-fourths of the total popex, or three-fourths of air-




 pollution-population-effect problem.  Thus, a reduction by 50 percent




 in the popex  of the 17 source-categories of rank one would reduce  the




 total popex level by over one-third.  On the other hand,  even complete




 elimination of the 87 source-categories of ranks 4 and 5  would hardly




 be noticeable.   It should be pointed out that this phenomenon of a few




 source-categories contributing most, if not all, of the air pollution




 problem is not unique to popex rankings.  From Table XI  it can be seen




 that even in  mass index or pindex,  the source-categories  of rank 1, as




 defined by the respective indices,  are responsible for over 70 percent




 of the index  level.




      Area sources also tend to dominate the total as compared to point




 sources (Table  XIII):   194 point source-categories contribute 32 per-




 cent of popex whereas  33 ;area source-categories are responsible for 68




 percent of popex.   It  should be kept in mind that the classification of




 the  point source-categories is on a much more detailed basis  than  the




 area source-categories.   For example,  there are 15 different  categories




 for  external-combustion-industrial  point sources burning  bituminous




 coal, but all of  the area  sources,  similarly characterized, are in-




 cluded  in only  a  single  category.   Similarly,  emissions from  all types




 of automobiles  are lumped  into one  area source-category,  but  there are




 ten different categories for manufacturing sulfuric acid.   Eight of




these sulfuric  acid manufacturing categories are differentiated only on

-------
                                                                132


 the basis of variation in conversion  efficiency between  93  to  99.7


 percent.   Finally,  since  the  area  source-categories  tend to be large,

 all except two are  included in  the first  three  popex rank-groups.

      In the following section,  the source-categories included  in  the

 popex-rank-group one are  discussed in detail.   Source-categories  of

 the rank-group two  are enumerated  later in  this chapter.

 Discussion of Sources of  the  Popex-Rank-Group One

      Seventeen out  of a total of 227  source-categories each contribute

 more than one percent to  popex  (Table XIII).  Table  XIV  shows  these

 categories along with their popex  levels.   The  first six categories are

 point sources and the rest are  area sources.  In the point  source

 categories of rank  one, there are  only three basic source types:   (1)

 large boilers using bituminous  coal,  (2)  mineral product industries

 involving lime manufacture and  stone-blasting operations, and  (3)
       i
 solvent evaporation.   Similarly, area source-categories  of  rank one

 could be  classified into  four subgroups:  (4) external combustion,  (5)

 solid waste disposal,  (6)  transportation, and  (7) solvent evaporation.

      The  first three subgroups  of  point source-categories are  sum-

 marized in Table  XV and are discussed below in  detail.   Since  each  area

 source-category comprises a large  number  of small sources,  similar

 information on individual area  sources is not available.  A generalized

discussion  of  the area sources  in  rank-group one follows the discussion


on point  sources.


 (1) Large external  combustion boilers. -  The first subgroup of sources


consists of  large bituminous  coal  fired industrial and  electric utility

-------
                         TABLE XIV.  SOURCE-CATEGORIES IN POPEX - RANK - GROUP ONE
Source     Source            Name of the source-category
category!  classification
           code
                                                                     Popex     Popex for each
                                                                               subgroup
 10
 66
           1-01-002-02
1-01-002-03
1-02-002-02
External combustion boiler - electric generation
- bituminous coal - >100 MMBTU pulv dry             4.45

External combustion boiler - electric generation
- bituminous coal - >100 MMBTU cyclose              3.59

External combustion boiler - industrial -
bituminous coal - >100 MMBTU pulv dry               2.30
                          10.34

                       (Subgroup 1)
 595
 617
3-05-016-04
3-05-020-08
Industrial process - mineral products - lime
manufacturing - calcining-rotary kiln
Industrial process - mineral products
quarry processing - cut stone-general
- stone
                                                                                 1.28
                                                                                 2.29
    3.57

(Subgroup 2)
 745
4-03-004-01
Point-source evaporation - surface coating
lacquer - general
                                                                                 1.14         1.14
                                                                                           (Subgroup 3)
                                                                                                         u
                                                                                                         OJ

-------
TABLE XIV.  CONTINUED
Source     Source            Name of  the  source-category
category   classification
           code^-
                                                                      Popex    Popex for  each
                                                                               subgroup
822
Area source
External combustion - residential -
bituminous coal
                                                                                 5.49
823
828
Area source
Area source
External combustion - residential -
distillate oil

External combustion - industrial -
bituminous coal
                                                                                 2.78
                                                                                12.48
    23.56

(Subgroup  4)
336
Area source
External combustion - commerical -
institutional - residual oil
                             open burning
                                                                                 2.81
844

845
Area source

Area source
Solid waste disposal -
site incineration
Solid waste disposal -
industrial - on

industrial -

1'9° 3.77
(Subgroup 5)
                                                                      1.87
                                                                                                       U)

-------
TABLE XIV.  CONTINUED
Source   ^  Source            Name of the source-category
category   classification
           code
                                                                    Popex      Popex  for  each
                                                                               subgroup
846
 847
 849
 851
Area source
Area source
Area source
Area source
Transportation
light vehicles

Transportation
heavy vehicles

Transportation
heavy vehicles

Transportation
rail
- land vehicles - gasoline
- land vehicles - gasoline
- land vehicles - diesel
- land vehicles - diesel
                                                                                 22.89
                                                                                  2.69
                                                                                  2.75
                                                                                  1.12
                                                                                               29.45
                                                                                           (Subgroup 6)
 861
Area  source       Miscellaneous - solvent evaporation loss
                                     5.48          5.48
                                              (Subgroup 7)
  See Appendix C.
                                                                                                       u>
                                                                                                       01

-------
                  TABLE XV.  SUMMARY  TABLE  FOR POINT  SOURCES  IN  POPEX - RANK - GROUP ONE
Subgroup Source-
category
number
1. External com- 9
bustion - large
boilers (>106 BTU/hr)
using bituminous
coal

10

66




2. Mineral-product 595
industries, such
Number of sources
in each county
3-Cook
3-Lake, 111.
6-Will
15-Lake, Ind.


7-Cook
2-Lake, 111.
5-Will
2-Porter
3-Cook
1-Grundy
1-Will
12-Lake, Ind.

6-Cook
Major
emis-
sions
S02
NOX',
PM



so2,
NOX

S02,
PM,
NOX


PM
(only)
Height
of
stack
(ft.)
225-
530 •



200-
400

0 -
200



45-75
Control devices Emission
(control ef- factor
ficiency, rating2
percent)
Electrostatic A
precipitator
(90-98)
High efficiency
wet scrubbers
(98-99)
Electrostatic A
precipitator (98)
High efficiency
scrubbers
No control equip, or A
Centrifugal col-
lector (85) low
efficiency fabric
filter (90)
Fabric filters (99.5) A
Wet scrubbers (99+)
Ratio of
emissions
US/Chicago
1.6



1.6

1.6




1.4
as lime manufactur-
ing, stone quarrying

-------
TABLE XV.
Subgroup

CONTINUED.
Source- Number of sources
category in each county
number
617 4-Cook

Major
emis-
sions
PM
(only)

Height
of
stack
(ft.)
75

Control devices
(control ef-
ficiency,
percent)
Largest source
does not have any

Emission
factor
rating2
C

Ratio of
emissions
US/Chicago
1.4
                                                               control  equip.   Some
                                                               of  smaller  sources
                                                               have  centrifugal
                                                               collectors  (70)  or
                                                               fabric filters  (99).
3. Point source
evaporation
                   745
5-Cook
1-Kane
HC
(only)
No      No control
stacks, equipment
esti-
mated
plume ht.
20 ft.
B
0.6
£From Table XIV
 Based on U.  S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency  (24)

-------
                                                                138


                                                 *


 boilers.   Source-categories  9 and  10 are  electricity  generation




 boilers which use pulverized coal.   Source-category 10  uses  cyclone




 furnaces  and has a low emission factor  for particulates (24).  Most of




 the sources in categories  9  and 10 have high  efficiency control equip-




 ment and  tall stacks (over 200 feet).




      Source-category 66 is for industrial boilers  and,  although this




 category,  like categories  9  and 10,  is  also for  boilers having greater




 than 100  million BTU/hr as a design capacity;  the  boilers  in category




 66 are generally smaller.  Capacities of  the  boilers  in category  66




 range from 2 to 20 tons of coal per hour  «s compared  to at least  50




 ton per hour and quite often in excess  of 100 tons, as  in  the case of




 categories 9 and 10.   On the other hand,  quite often  the load factor




 for industrial boilers is  greater  than  that for  the electric utility




(boilers.   Approximately one-half the total number  of  industrial boilers




 use no control equipment while others use low efficiency fabric filters
                                                               i

                                                           i   i

 or centrifugal collectors.   Stack  heights for these boilers  are




 generally  lower than that  of the utility  boilers (categories 9 and 10).
                                                    *    \



 Thus,  in the case  of industrial boilers,  a combination  of  the factors:




 higher load factor,  lower  efficiency control  equipment, and  low stacks,




 results in  a popex level which is  comparable  to  that  of the  much  larger




 capacity electric  utility  boilers.





     The emission  factors  ratings  (24)  for all of  the source-categories




 in  this group are  "A"  which  means  that  emissions data are  most precise.


                                           /


From Table  II,  the  ratio of  total  U.  S. to Chicago AQCR emissions is

-------
                                                                139
1.6.  Thus, in a nationwide rating this group of sources could rank




even higher.




     Control technologies for elimination or reduction of SO2 and NO




emissions are under development  (48).  In case of SO2, the efforts of




Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory, IERL  (previously Control




Systems Laboratory, CSL) of EPA have accelerated the development of




flue gas cleaning technology which is now in the process of commercial-




ization.  The early efforts of the IERL were directed towards develo-




ment of lime/limestone scrubbing processes and the present efforts are




directed towards increasing process reliability and lowering costs (48).




Other methods for flue gas cleaning under development through the IERL




include magnesium oxide, catalytic oxidation, sodium ion scrubbing with




thermal regeneration, etc.




     In the case of NOX emissions, the technology is not as advanced




as for SO2 removal.  Efforts directed by IERL include combustion modi-




fication to prevent NOX formation and flue gas cleaning to control NOX




emissions.  Completion of major development efforts is not expected




before 1980 (48).




(2) Mineral products processing industries. - This subgroup includes




two source-categories:  (a) manufacture of lime using rotary kilns, and




(b) stone quarrying operations.  All the sources in this subgroup have




emissions of particulates only.




     In the manufacture of lime, rotary kilns have much higher emissions




(200 Ib/ton processed) as compared to vertical kilns (8 Ib/ton processed)

-------
                                                                140
 However,  all  six  sources in the category  (number 595} have moderate to




 high efficiency control equipment and are located in densely populated




 Cook County.   An  emission factor rating of B indicates the emissions




 data are  fairly accurate.




      Among  the four  sources in the second source-category related to




 stone-quarrying operations, the largest source processing over 4.5




 million tons/year did not have any control equipment.  This may be one




 of  the important  reasons why this category has ranked so high in the




 priority  listings.   The other three sources in this source-category




 (number 617)  process 25,000 to 60,000 tons/year and have low to moderate




 efficiency  control equipment.  This category of sources has an emission




 factor rating of  C,  which indicates that emission data may not be very




 accurate.   Thus,  with improved emissions data, this category may or may




 not have  a  popex  rank of one.




      This group of sources involving mineral product processing in-




 dustries  has  nationwide emissions of 2.9 percent as compared to 2.1




 percent in  the Chicago AQCR.  Thus, this category could rank somewhat




 higher when nationwide emissions are considered.




     An important consideration which would reduce the importance of




 this category  is  that the emissions consist of mostly large-size




particles which may  settle to the ground near the source itself and,




thus, significantly  reduce the pollutant-exposure to people.  Similarly,




larger particles  (>2 microns) are less hazardous than finer particles




since the larger particles are deposited primarily in the nasopharyngeal

-------
                                                                141






region of the  human  respiratory tract (49).




 (3) Point-source  evaporation.  - The source-category related to  solvent




emission from  surface  coating  (number 745)  involves application of paint,




varnish, lacquer,  or paint primer for decorative  and protective purposes.




Many different types of industries are involved including  automobile




assemblies, manufacture of containers, furniture  appliances, plastic




products, etc.




     All the emissions from this subgroup of sources are hydrocarbons




only.  The methods for control of hydrocarbons  include adsorption using




activated charcoal or  use of after-burners.   None of the sources had




any control equipment  listed in the emission data.   Similarly,  none of




the sources had stacks.   An emission factor  rating of B implies the data




on emissions are  fairly accurate.   This  category  may have  ranked some-




what lower nationwide  since the ratio of nationwide versus Chicago AQCR




emissions is only  0.6.




     A detailed study  assessing industrial sources involving surface




coating operations has been performed (50) .   It should be  referred




to for additional  information  on prioritization of similarly categorized




different sources.   Status of  control equipment is also discussed in




detail in the  same study (50).




(4 through 7) Area source-categories.  -  The  last  four subgroups on




Table XIV are area sources.  In the NEDS emission data, the smallest




element considered for an area source is a county.   All of the  eleven




area source-categories are  present in each of eleven counties in the

-------
                                                                142


 Chicago AQCR.   As described in the previous  chapter,  no  stack  heights


 were given in  the emissions data.   Therefore,  certain stack heights,


 ranging from 3 to 25 feet,  were assumed for  all  the area sources.


 Most of the area source categories,  with the notable  exception of


 automobiles, have little in the way of  control equipment for emissions.


      Subgroup  4, comprising industrial  and residential combustion


 sources, contribute almost  25  percent to the total popex.   Again,


 there is virtually no control  equipment used in  these categories.


      Transportation (subgroup  6),  especially automobiles, also con-


 tribute heavily to the total popex.  A  substantial control  program


 initiated by the EPA is underway to reduce CO, HC, and NOX  emissions


 from automobile exhaust.  It may seem surprising that less-recognized


 air pollution  sources such  as  heavy diesel gasoline vehicles and rail


 transport are  also included in this  rank-group.  The  explanation could
                                                               i

 lie in the large emissions  of  hydrocarbons and nitrogen  oxides coupled


 with low "stack" height.


      Solvent evaporation contributes significantly  (over 1/20  of the


 total)  to the  total popex even though the emissions consist of only


 hydrocarbon emissions which have higher tolerance factors as compared


 to  other pollutants (Table  VI).  The marketing and transportation  of


 petroleum products,  especially gasoline retailing, comprises the
                . *                            ^

 largest  fraction of emissions  in this category.  Control equipment in


 the form of  vapor  recovery  systems are  used  at various points  in the


gasoline  distribution system except at  the last  stage of distribution


or at the  filling  stations.  The control efficiency ranges  from 90-95

-------
                                                                14 J




percent.  The emission data for solvent evaporation have a rating of




A, implying that the data are most precise.  The ratio of U.S. to




Chicago AQCR emissions is 0.3, which indicates that the Chicago AQCR




data exaggerates the importance of this category.




Source-Categories of Popex-Rank-Group Two:




    Table XVI lists source-categories having rank two.  There are




53 categories in this rank-group.  Popex levels of each are indicated.




The categories are diverse and include all major categories of




sources.

-------
                                                          144
TABLE XVI.  SOURCE-CATEGORIES IN POPKX - RANK - GROUP TWO

Subgroup


EXTERNAL COMBUSTION (POINT)
Electric generation



Industrial









Commercial-institutional
INDUSTRIAL PROCESS
Food- agricultural
Primary metals





Secondary metals
•
Mineral products


Petroleum industry




Not classified

Source-
category
number

8
36
42
45
65
68
70
72
73
79
96
97
105
108
130

349
399
400
405
427
434
436
477
485
528
612
632
633
634
637
657
658
737
Popex
Source- Sub- Total
category total

5.89
0.46 1.43
0.43
0.39
0.15
0.61 4.32
0.43
0.16
0.16
0.34
0.20
0.71
0.34
0.78
0.59
0.14 0.14
6.23
0.23 0.23
0.33 2.26
0.20
0.31
0.83
0.27
0.32
0.11 0.43
0.32
0.47 0.80
0.12
.0.21
0.26 2.33
0.14
0.54
0..43
0.96
0.18 0.18

-------
TABLE XVI.  CONTINUED
                                                               145

Subgroup

POINT-SOURCE EVAPORATION
Surface coating

Petroleum

SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL (POINT)
Government
Commercial-institutional
Industrial
EXTERNAL COMBUSTION (AREA)
Residential
Industrial


Commercial- institutional
SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL (AREA)
Residential

Commercial- institutional
TRANSPORTATION
Gasoline off-highway
Diesel
Air
Vessels
Gasoline handling
•
Popex.
Source- Source- Sub- Total
category category total
number

743
746
749
751

761
782
796

825
829
830
831
838

840
841
843

848
850
854
858
859

1.09
0.33 0.46
0.13
0.37 0.63
0.26
0.85
0.52 0.52
0.11 0.11
0.22 0.22
2.69
0.56 2.41
0.61
0.39
0.85
0.28 0.28
1.00
0.60 0.90
0.30
0.10 0.10
2.02
0.17 0.17
0.26 0.26
0.65 0.65
0.11 0.11
0.83 0.33

-------
                                                                 146
                              CHAPTER IX









                SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS  OF THE POPEX MODEL







      In the case of  mathematical models with multiple input parameters,




 it is often useful and  illuminating  to determine the extent of changes




 in results derived from changes in the input values of different para-




 meters.   This process of analyzing the relative importance of parameters




 is known as sensitivity analysis.  Sensitivity analysis indicates whe-




 ther the results of  the model are sensitive to changes or uncertainties




 in an input parameter.   If changes in certain parameters affect the




 overall  results more than similar changes in other parameters, it would




 be necessary to examine more  carefully the input data and mathematical




 expressions related  to  those  particular parameters.  On the other hand,




 insensitive variables may require less detailed input data.  Finally,




 sensitivity analysis could be used to establish an order of priorities




 as to which parameters  or parts of the model need further refinement.




      In  this chapter, the method for conducting sensitivity analysis  is




described  first,  followed by  results of the analysis.  The integrative




discussion  of the approach utilized  in the construction of popex and




the results  of  sensitivity analysis  are given later in this chapter.







METHOD




     To estimate the sensitivity of  a parameter, the extent of change




in results from the base  were calculated.  In this sensitivity analysis

-------
                                                                   147
the base-case input parameters were the same as those used to arrive at

the results described in the preceding chapter.  Popex was applied to a

case where the input value of the parameters was increased by 50 percent.

above its base value (with all the remaining parameters kept unchanged

from the base-case values) .  The popex levels for each of the source-

categories for this modified case were calculated and compared with base-

case results.  The absolute values of the changes in popex for all cate-

gories were summed and the sensitivities of each of the parameters were

calculated as follows:

                     857
                               1(p0pex)NA,    -  (P°Pex)NA, with
                                      base-case        50 percent
                                                       increase in
                                                       parameter A
   Sensitivity of _
   a parameter A     NA =
                     number of
                     source-
                     categories

A similar procedure was followed for a case with a 50 percent reduction

in the input value of the same parameter.  The whole process was re-

peated for each of the input parameters.

     The theoretically maximum possible sensitivity for a parameter

from the above equation is 200  (Appendix E).  However, as pointed out

in Appendix E, this would occur only in an extreme and unrealistic case

where all the non-zero popex levels for the different source-categories

would change to zero popex levels and popex for the rest of the cate-

gories would change from zero to non-zero values.

     In order to further understand implications of the sensitivity in

the form of percent change (above equation), the results of the

-------
                                                                 148




 sensitivity analysis were also obtained in terms of changes in rankings.




 Table XII shows the basis on which ranks one through five were assigned to




 different source categories.   Changes in the rankings for each source-




 category from the base-case were computed.   For example,  the source-




 category "industrial-processes-lime manufacturing"  (number 595)  had a




 rank of one (popex level of 1.3 percent)  in the base-case but when the




 tolerance factor for particulates was increased by  50 percent, it  had




 a rank of two (popex level of 0.9 percent).   This was considered as a




 change in ranking of one and the absolute values of such  changes were




 summed for all the categories.







 RESULTS




      Table XVII lists results of the sensitivity analysis in the order




 of decreasing sensitivity.   Both the total  percent  change in results  as




 well as the change in rankings  are listed.   The results in the two forms




 are quite similar,  if not the same,  and thus,  only  the results in  the




 form of total  percent changes  are referred to in the following dis-




 cussion.




      Decreasing the stack-heights of the area sources seemed to affect




 results  the most.   However,  sensitivity to  decrease in height should  be




 viewed with caution since it  represents the results from  33 area source-




 categories extrapolated  to  all  227 categories.  In  any case, the height




of the stack is  an  important  parameter for  determining impact, since




concentrations of primary pollutants decrease at ground level as the




height of stack  is  increased  (20).                    •   •

-------
                                                               14 y
       TABLE  XVII.   RESULTS OF THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Parameter
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
(21)
(22)
Height of the stack
PM tolerance factor
SO2 tolerance factor
HC tolerance factor
NOX tolerance factor
Ring radius
PM tolerance factor
SO2 tolerance factor
HC tolerance factor
Ring radius
NOX tolerance factor
°y
CO tolerance factor
Height of the stack
e
6
cy
CO tolerance factor
a
az
Windspeed
Windspeed
Change in
parameter
by 50
percent
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Total change
in Popex,
percent
32.91
32.7
25.2
23.8
17.8
14.3
13.9 '
12.5
10.6
10.6
7.8
6.9
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.1
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.1
0
0
Changes in
ranking
27
24
30
22
19
9
20
6
11
9
8
5
2
2
1
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
LExtrapolated from 4.. 8 for 33 area spurce-categories

-------
                                                                 150



      The next four parameters,  in decreasing order of sensitivity



 (Table XVII), are related to the tolerance factors.   Decreasing the



 tolerance factor of a pollutant means increasing the importance (or



 toxicity) of that pollutant as  compared to others.   Thus,  for a same



 pollutant, results are more sensitive to a reduction than  to an increase



 in tolerance factors.  Results  are sensitive to  the  tolerance factors



 of all the pollutants except CO.   The tolerance  factor for CO is very



 large as compared to all  the others (Table VI).   Thus,  an  increase or



 decrease of 50 percent does not alter appreciably the relative unim-



 portance of CO when compared to the other pollutants.



      Sensitivity of pollutant emissions was not  checked, since mathe-

     <

 matically, increasing emissions of a  pollutant is the same as decreasing



 the tolerance factor of that pollutant.   Thus, from  the sensitivity of
                                                     *   *.


 the tolerance factors,  it can be inferred that the results of the  model



 are sensitive to the emissions  data.



      Changing the ring radii also has significant effects  on the results.

                                                  5   •

 Ring radius,  RR,  is really a lumped parameter for population and disper-



 sion of pollutants.   The  meteorological parameters do not  seem to  have



 appreciable influence on  the results.   It was to be  expected that  emis-



 sions and  plume  height  would be more  important parameters  than meteoro-



 logical parameters  related to dispersion of pollutants (51).

                                i                     i
     The changes  in windspeed do not  at all alter results.  This is due



to the fact that  the same windspeed is used for  all  the sources.  Simi-



larly, the concentration  of a pollutant and windspeed have a simple



inverse relationship.

-------
                                                                 151





 DISCUSSION




      To develop a methodology based on damages associated with indivi-




 dual sources of air pollution for priority ranking of the sources, it




 was necessary to consider a substantial part of the air quality manage-




 ment system shown earlier (Figure 1).   Specifically, factors that needed




 to be considered were (a) how do the pollutants disperse in the atmos-




 phere, (b)  how and to what extent are the pollutants transformed in the




 atmosphere, (c)  where are the people located with respect to sources




 and what are the levels of concentrations of pollutants to which people




 are exposed, and lastly, (d)  what are  the effects of this exposure on




 people.   Due to the complexities and numerous uncertainties associated




 with  each of these factors,  it would  have been extremely difficult to




 construct a model which would rigorously simulate this emissions-to-




 effects process.   The research for this dissertation did not attempt to




 remove the uncertainties.  In this project, these uncertainties were




 examined and analyzed.   In light of the uncertainties,  simple assump-




 tions were made  to circumvent the complexities of the air pollution




 emission-to-effect process.




      The most notable of the  assumptions was that of a symmetric wind




 rose.  As described earlier (Table IV),  the average annual resultant




 windspeed for Chicago was from south-southwest at approximately 2  miles




 per hour.   This  implies  that  the wind  roses at the locations where data




 for Chicago are monitored (Midway and  O'Hare Airports)  are not completely




 symmetrical.   However, there  were more important considerations which




prompted  the  assumption  of  symmetric wind rose (Chapter IV).

-------
                                                                 152





      It was shown that the wind rose at different locations in a large




 region could be substantially different.    Annual wind data for other




 locations is not available routinely.   Lack of such spatial meteorolo-




 gical data combined with the effect of Lake Michigan on recirculation




 of pollutants and inadequate knowledge of  distribution of people around




 sources justifies the symmetric wind rose assumption.




      The sensitivity analysis points out  that  even though the lumped




 parameter for population exposure  i.e.  the ring radius was important,




 in general, parameters related to  meteorology  were not significantly




 important in the possible alteration of the results.   The sensitivity




 analysis also revealed that tolerance factors  related to health effects




 were, as a group,  by far the most  important for changes in the results.




 In other words,  the rankings could significantly change if the tolerance




 factors are changed.   On the other hand,  an improvement in dispersion




 modeling may change the results only to a limited extent.




      Generally,  the inability to quantitatively relate the effects of




 air pollutants  in  the management of air quality is well recognized (52).




 This  weakness is inescapably reflected in this research.  The use of




 tolerance factors  seemed justified in this first-generation pollution-




 people-effect model.   However,  tolerance  factors are only indirectly




 based on  health-effects and they cannot be substituted for healthr




 effect dose-response  curves.   In this  project, considerable time was




 spent in  analyzing  the health-effects  literature to examine the feasi-




bility of construction of dose-response relationships which are based




on effects of air pollution on the respiratory function.  The

-------
                                                                 153




relevant literature was reviewed  and  analyzed (Appendix A).




     There are some excellent  studies which  have  related  specific air




pollution "dosages" to effects.   These  include  the  experimental  studies




which, as a group, have been able to  show  specific  dose-response rela-




tionships (Figures A-l, A-3 to A-5 in Appendix  A).  The results  of  the




epidemiological group studies  are less-conclusive and, hence, are not




useful in the construction of  longer  term  dose-response curves.




     Appendix A assesses the air-pollution-pulmonary-effect studies




based on criteria for characterization  of  air pollutants  and character-




ization  of pulmonary function.   It was concluded that the reason for




the lack of data was not due to the lack of  enough  studies as commonly




viewed but rather due to the following  study-design shortcomings: (a)




an incomplete characterization of the concentration of air pollutants




whose effects were being studied  and  inadequate recognition of other




pollutants which were not being specifically studied but, nevertheless,




may have been present;  (b) failure to use  sufficiently sensitive tests




for characterization of lung function;  and (c)  inadequate elimination




of, or accounting for, other factors  which may  interfer with the air




pollution-effect results of a  study.  Details of  this review and




assessment are given in Appendix  A.

-------
                               CHAPTER X







                    IMPLICATIONS  OF THE METHODOLOGY





      In this chapter various factors  that were  implicit  in  the methodo-



 logy are examined,  analyzed, and highlighted.   Based on  a comparison



 and analysis of the models,  a simplified procedure  for the  ranking of



 sources is presented.   Next, limitations of  the popex model and  the



 methodology are enumerated.   Finally,  recommendations for future re-



 search are included.





 APPROACH



      In Chapter VIII,  the  results of  the popex  model were presented



 with those of mass  index and pindex (Table XI) .   In order  to under-



 stand some of the factors  related to  the methodology which  are implicit



 in these models it  is  necessary  to recapitulate how the  three models:



 mass index,  pindex  and popex,  differ  from each  other.  Figure 23 shows



 the variables included in  these  models.  Mass index considers  only



 the mass emissions  of  five pollutants;  pindex,  in addition, considers



 tolerance factors of the pollutants.   Popex  includes considerations of



 dispersion and  population  in addition to pollution  emissions and toler-



 ance  factors.   Thus, a comparison of  the results of mass index and pindex



 for a given  source-category  would indicate the  influence of the  tolerance



 factors.   Similarly, a comparison of the results of pindex versus popex
                             t


would show the  effect  of factors  related to dispersion  and population.



                                   154

-------
                                                           155
   Mass emission weights of the
   five pollutants:  PM, SC>2,
   NOX, HC, CO
   Tolerance factors for the
   five emitted pollutants and
   oxidants
   Variables related to pollutant
   dispersion: windspeed,
   atmospheric stability, stack.
   height	
   Variables related to population:
   population, area, source-
   receptor distances
Mass
Index
Pindex
                                                    Popex
Figure 23.  Indices and Variables

-------
                                                                156


Finally, an analysis of the factors which differentiate the models


would allow one to examine implications which are. not seen otherwise.


     For this analysis, two ratios are calculated for each of the


source-categories as follows :


               pindex for source-category NA,  percent
                         (PI\    p


                         MI/N,  m
               mass index for source-category NA,  percent

          »
        PO \    popex for source-category NA,  percent


       ,PI/    pindex for source-category NA,  percent
       k   /NA


Thus, for example, for. the source-category 8  from  Table  X:


       'PI\    1.16
(
                                    =2-42
                           g   0.48


                        PO\    0.46
                                    = 0.40
                        PI8   1.16


                Table XVIII gives these ratios for all of the source-categories.




                PI/MI


                     The mass index, pindex, and PI/MI are listed in the first three


                columns of Table XVIII.  The ratio PI/MI depends on the tolerance fac-


                tors and mix of the pollutant emissions of a source category.  CO has


                the largest tolerance factor, whereas SO- has the smallest  (Table VI).


                Consequently, PI/MI is the largest or equal to 2.58 for the source-


                categories which have only SO2 emissions.  The categories with only SO2


                emissions include boilers burning special fuel  (category number 118, a


                single source) ,  manufacture of sulfuric acid (category 268) and natural


                gas flares (category 651) .   On the other hand, PI/MI is the smallest

-------
TAtiLE XVIII.   INDICESfPI/.MItPQ/PI  AND SOURCE LOCATIONS  FOR  SOURCE CATEGORIES  JN  CHICAGO AQCR.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
8
9
10
11
36
37
39
42
43
45
65
66
68
70
7*
73
77
79
MASS
INDEX
0.432
5.037
2.728
0.011
0.446
0.002
0.001
0.346
0.001
0.550
0.239
1.9
-------
TABLE XVII U  CONTINUED.
          ,£!£§§ PINDEX     -El  POPEX     £0   ----- NUMBER OF SOURCES IN COUNTIES1 ----
          INDEX            fft            FT12345678910U TOTAL
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
108
110
111
112
118
128
130
0.942
0.279
0.031
0.023
0.001
0.004
0.036
0.083
0.034
1.005
0.063
0.400
0.0
0.0
0.002
0.013
0.011
0.237
2.298
0.676
O.G73
O.U55
O.CC2
0.008
O.C68
0.155
0.061
2.238
0.155
0.990
O.C.01
OcOCl
0.005
0.033
0.026
0.528
2.44
2.42
2.37
2.40
2.37
2.27
1.86
1.86
1.77
2.23
2.46
2.47
1.82
1.86
2.41
2.58
2.34
2.23
0.714
0.333
0.089
0.014
0.001
0.004
0.030
0.080
0.062
0.782
0.041
0.592
0.0
0.0
0.002
0.008
U.004
0.139
0.31
C.49
1.22
0.26
0.33
0.53
G.44
0.52
1.02
0.35
0.26
C.60
0.43
0.33
0,29
C.25
0-14
0.26
9
29
13
0
0
3
7
31
17
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
2
6
9
0
0
0
I
0
0
0
0
7
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
7
1
0
0
0
0^
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q
1
6
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
Q
0
0
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• o
0
0
2
25
0
0
0
0
4
36
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
36
6
4
5
1
3
13
4
4
47
16
4
1
i
1
1
Q
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q
48
73
17
5
1
6
29
103
34
52
16
4
2
1
1
1
1
20
1 l-COOKt2-DUPAGE,3-GRUNDY,4~KANE,5-KANKAKE£,6-KENCALL,7-LA!'.E,8-MCHEHRY,9-WlLLf 10-LAKE IN,  K

  il-PQRTEK

-------
TAdlE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
KLt
LJftY
135
136
147
148
149
151
152
153
154
179
181
163
205
208
209
210
211
221
MASS 1
INDEX
0.001
0.011
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.021
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.012
0.025
0.026
O.L11
0.001
0.012
0.033
0.036
PINUtX
0.001
0.024
0.014
0.003
0.003
O.OC9
O.G49
0.001
O.C04
0.006
0.012
0.001
O.C51
0.221
0.001
0.032
0.080
0.072
«
1.43
2.25
2.32
2.18
1.85
2.19
2.30
1.65
1.72
2.00
1.02
0.04
1,96
2. CO
2.00
2.58
2.11
2.00
PUPhX
0.002
0.004
0.040
0.008
0.005
0.025
0.013
0.001
0.003
0.012
0.024
0.002
0.097
0.039
0.0
C.006
0.014
0.012
«
2.77
0.15
2.77
2.77
1.95
2.72
0.27
0.48
2.23
1.93
2.01
1.98
1.92
0.18
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.17
1
1
0
2
4
8
5
3
0
4
1
1
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0 .
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
Nur
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IBtK
4
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ui- :
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
>UUK<
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-to
0
0
0
0
2
1
7
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
I ft i.5J
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• 0
0
0
luroi i
9
0
2
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
ICi -
LO
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
X
0
0
0
0
0
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
4
12
6
14
1
6
1
I
3
6
1
1
1
1
i
 1l-COOK,2-DL»PAGE,3-GRUNDY,4-KANE,5-KANKAKEEf6-KENDALL,7-LAKE,8-MCHENRY,9-WlLL,lO-LAKE IN,
   11-PORTfcR

-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
2JO
234
237
244
247
249
262
26 J
267
263
301
305
J06
333
345
346
347
349
MASS
INDEX
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.006
0.003
0.004
0.013
0.039
0.079
0.092
0.003
0.016
0.006
0.024
0.0
0.001
0.0
0.058
PINOEX
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.013
0.007
O.OC4
0.034
O.C99
0.204
0.239
0.005
0.031
0.012
. 0.029
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.114
.p y
i3i~
1.07
1.02
1.02
1.96
1.96
1.02
2.53
2.55
2*58
2.58
1.96
1..96
1.56
1.17
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
POPEX
0.011
O.G04
0.0
0.025
0.012
0.009
0.005
0.018
0.049
0.049
0.009
0.050
0.025
0.043
0.0
0.003
0-002
0.223
ft
*.09
1.96
0.28
2.00
1.79
2.04
0.16
0.18
0.24
0.21
1.76
1.63
2.00
1.52
0.59
1.98
1.90
2.00
••»••«[
I
2
1
0
1
1
i
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
1
2
1.
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
- NUMBER
3 4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OF i
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
iOURI
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
:ES
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
IN COUNT]
8 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
' 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IPS1
Itj
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0


11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
, 2
1
1
1
9
2
2
1
1
 1i-COOK,2-DUPAGEf^-GkUNDY,4-KANEf5-KANKAKEE,6-KENDALL,7-LAKe,8-MCHENRY,9-«ILL,lO-LAKE  IN,
  11-POKTtK

-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
IKLt MAbb P INDEX PI POPEX _PU
iORY INDEX Hi 1*1
350
351
352
354
361
379
389
399
400
401
402
405
425
426
427
429
433
4-34
0.018
0.010
0.006
0.001
0.015
0.001
0.003
0.890
0.400
0.098
0.090
0.273
0.016
0.012
3.608
0.034
0.007
0.356
0.034
0.020
0.013
O.CQ2
0.030
0.001
0.007
1.113
0.499
0.156
0.172
0.704
O.C08
0.023
1.220
O.Obti
0.015
0.7^7
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.S6
1.96
1.96
1.25
1.24
1.59
1.91
2.58
0.50
1.96
0.34
1.70
2.29
2.C4
0.069
0.040
0.022
0.001
0.010
0.002
0.013
0.327
0.202
0.067
0.088
0.312
0.012
0.012
0.833
0,029
0.005
0.270
2.00
2.00
1.76
0.33
0.35
1.90
1.90
0.29
0.40
0.43
0.51
0.44
1.50
0.51
0.68
C.50
0.35
0.37
i
1
1
i
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
2
1
i
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
c
0
0
0
0
0
- NUf
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
IBtK
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ui- :
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ttJUKt
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-tb
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
in ui
d
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• 0
0
0
JUINi
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ito -
10
0
0
0
1
7
0
0
21
21
21
21
21
0
20
14
11
8
47
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
7
1
1
23
24
24
24
21
1
22
16
13
9
47
   l-COOK,2-DUPAGEf3-GRUNDY,4-KANEf5-KANKAKEE,6-KENOALL»7-LAKE,8-MCHENRY,9-WILL,10-LAKE  IN,
   il-PURTER

-------
TAiLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
>nv» l_
iO*Y
435
436
437
438
440
463
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
485
494
495
n« jo
INDEX
0.227
1.326
0.002
0.002
u.o
0.008
0.005
O.OOi
0.0
0.012
0.004
O.OOi
0.493
0.0
0.0
0.067
O.OOi
0.045
r AWUCA
0.112
0.9CO
0.003
0.005
0.0
0.016
0.009
0.002
0.0
0 . 024
0.007
0.003
0.048
0.0
0.0
0.168
O.CC3
0.089
fit
0.49
0.68
1.96
2.06
1.96
1.S6
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
0.10
1.96
1.96
2.50
1.97
1.96
rurCA
0.064
0.324
0.005
0.010
0.0
0.025
0.017
0.003
0.0
0.042
0.013
0.005
o.ior
0.0
0.001
0.321
0.004
0.074
ft
0.58
0.36
1.34
1.98
0.28
1.54
1.83
1.50
C.i9
1.75
1.79
1,88
2,24
i.73
1.46
1.91
1.35
0-84
1
1
4
2
2
0
1
3
1
0
2
2
1
4
2
1
t
1
2
2
•»••» *IIW«**
-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
KUC
ORY
498
499
500
502
504
520
522
523
524
525
527
528
530
531
533
541
5*4
546
PIAii
INDEX
0.0
0.003
0.001
0.0
O.U
0.003
0.015
0.002
0.0
0.001
0.016
0.135
0.016
0.024
0.0
0.002
0.0
0.001
KlNUtA
0.0
0.003
0.001
0.0
0.0
0.006
0.017
0.005
0.0
0.001
0.031
0.265
0.031
O.C48
0.001
0.004
0.0
0.002
ft
1.96
1.C3
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.10
1.96
1.96
C.97
1.97
1.S6
1.96
1.96
1.69
1.96
1.96
1.96
HUKfcA
0.0
0.005
0.002
0.0
0.001
0.012
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.040
0.469
0.063
0.081
0.0
0.002
0.0
0.001
H
0.35
2.00
1.33
1.91
2.00
1.93
0.34
0.21
2.31
0.91
1.29
1.77
2.07
1.69
0.35
0.40
0.34
0.41
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
6
6
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
C
0
0
c
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
- NUNBtK
3 4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ur :
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
iUUK(
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-ti IN w
7 8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0 •
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
JUN 1
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
c
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ICd -
10
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
3
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
2
1
2
8
7
1
1
2
2
1
3
 1 i-cOQKt2-DUPAGE,3-GRUNDY,4H
-------
TAbLE XVIII.  CONTINUED,
SOURCE
CATEGORY
547
548
551
559
560
579
562
589
590
591
592
593
595
605
610
611
612
614
MASS
INDEX
0.022
0.008
0.146
0.013
0.047
0.001
0.004
0.002
0.0
0.0
0.093
0.011
0.4G6
0.001
0.024
0.055
0.287
0.014
PINDEX
0.043
0.017
0.343
0.026
0.093
0.001
0.008
O.OC5
0.0
0.001
0.182
0.022
0.797
0.001
0.047
0.107
0.563
0.028
u-
1.96
1.96
2.35
1.96
1.96
1.02
1.96
1.96
.1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
POPEX
0.082
0.032
0.100
0.001
0.005
0.0
0.003
0.001
0.0
0.0
0.032
0.001
1.283
0.0
0.009
0.021
0.118
0.005
ft
1.91
1.93
0.29
0.06
0.06
0.10
1.08
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.18
0.05
1.61
0.27
0.19
0.19
0.21
C.18
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
6
0
0
0
1
0
2~"
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• NUMBER OF SOURCES
3 4 5 67
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
IN COUNT I
8 9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• o
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
4
1
PS*
to
10
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
2
2
1
3
2
1
1
2
2
6
1
6
6
5
1
1l-COL)K,2-DUPAGE,3-GRUNDYf4-KANE,5-KANKAKEt,6-KSNCALL,7-LAKE,8-MCHENRY,9-WILL.10-LAKE INt £
  il-PURTtR

-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
iUUKCt
CATEGORY
615
616
617
632
633
634
637
638
639
642
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
657
MAbi PINUfcX
INDEX
0.064
0.272
0.726
0.052
0.396
0.15u
5.673
0.080
0.001
0.051
0.047
0.006
0.002
0.004
0.001
0.002
0.0
3.223
0.126
0.533
1.424
O.I 01
0.995
0.367
0.729
0.163
0.001
0.052
0.048
O.C06
0.002
O.OC4
0.001
0.002
0.0
1.673
tt
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.96
2.51
2.45
0.13
2. C4
1.02
i.02
1.C2
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
2.58
0.52
PUPtX
0.052
0.097
2.289
0.210
0.262
0.141
0.540
0.040
0.0
0.012
0.009
0.001
0.0
0.001
0.0
0.001
0.001
0.432
»
0.41
0.18
1.61
2.07
0.26
0.38
0.74
0.24
0.22
0.23
0.19
0.23
0.19
0.2J
0.20
0.39
1.18
0.26
l"
2
0
4
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
"2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
" NUMBtK
3 4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ut- iUUKLti
567
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
iN uuuni ica •
8 9 10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• o
0
0
3
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
10
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
4
1
8
9
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
10
 1 i-COOK,2-DUPAGEf3-GRUNDYf4-KANE,5-KANKAKEE,6-KENDALL,7-LAKE,8-MCHENRY,9-WILL,10-LAKE  IN,
  11-PURTER

-------
TABLE xvni.  CONTINUED.

  SOURCE
1* » ^ ^k
.DRY
658
677
692
693
706
714
730
731
737
739
741
743
744
745
746
747
743
749
i ir^ ****
INDEX
0.518
0.0
0.010
0.003
0.0
0.004
0.0
0.004
0.120
0.007
0.011
0.217
0.009
0.601
0.072
0.050
0.005
0.920
r * iitxw. /\
1.271
0.0
0.020
0.006
0.001
0.009
0.0
O.C07
0.222
0.007
0.011
0.222
0.009
0.612 .
0.073
0.050
0.005
0.937
ft
2.45
1.96
1.96
1.96
2.58
2.58
2.36
1.96
1.85
1.02
l.CZ
1,02
1.02
1.02.
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02'
i-urc A
0.964
0.0
0.041
0.011
0.0
0.003
0.001
0.011
0.176
0.002
0.001
0.325
0.018
1.142
0.133
0.085
0.0
0.373
flf
0.76
1.96
2.00
1.83
0.60
C.31
1.88
1.50
0.80
0.22
0.09
1.46
2-. Go
1.87
1.82
1.68
0.06
0.40
1
4
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
2
0
0
23
2
5
1
2
0
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0
0
c
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
• nu
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
HOCK
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
12
0
1
2
0
0
0
ur ;
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
sucmt
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
,Cd il
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
* V.
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
.UUIMI J
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
101
ica ^-
10
7
0
0
0
L
8
0
0
5
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
1
1
I
1
9
1
1
9
1
1
45
3
6
4
3
1
107
 1 i-COOK,2-DUPAGEt3-GRUNDY,4-KANE,5-KANKAKEE,6-KENDALL,7-tAKE,8-MCHENRY>9-WlLLflO-LAKE  IN,
  U-PORTER

-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
RCE
DRY
750
751
752
758
760
761
762
778
782
783
795
796
797
802
821
822
823
825
MASS
INDEX
0.030
0.672
0.035
0.014
0.007
0.412
0.065
0.001
0.070
0.0
0.005
0.194
0.0
0.0
0.002
2.156
0.772
0.237
PINOEX
0.031
0.685
0.036
0.014
0.008
0.388
O.C60
0.001
0.042
0.001
O.C05
0.206
O.OC1
0.0
0.001
3.C91
1.722
0.359
ft
1.02
1.02
1.C2
1.02
1.02
C.94
0.93
1.03
0.59
1.21
1.13
1.C6
2.C6
1.17
0.69
1.43
2.23
1.51
POPEX
0.005
0.262
0.006
0.030
0.014
0.521
0.089
0.002
0.107
0.002
0.003
0.224
0.0
0.0
0.001
5.489
2.784
0.553
T#
0.16
0.38
0.16
2.17
1.88
1.35
1.49
1.59
2.58
2.77
0.53 -
1.09
0.15
0.60
0.38
1.78
1.62
1.55
1
0
2
0
1
1
9
4
1
3
1
1
5
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
•0
.0
0
0
0
1
1
1
• NUJ
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
IBfcR
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
OP :
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
S>OUR<
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
-fcb
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
IN C
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
UUNI .
9
9
96
8
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
1
1
Lti ^
10
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
11 TOTAL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
9
99
8
1
1
9
5
2
3
1
2
8
1
1
2
11
11
11
 1l-COOK,2-DUPAGE,3-GRUNOY,4-KANE,5-KANKAKEE,6-KENCALL,7-LAKE,8-MCHENRYf9-WILL,10-LAKE  IN,
   il-PORTER

-------
TABLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
IRCE
.OKY
826
828
829
830
831
835
836
837
838
840
841
842
843
844
845
846
847
848
MASS
INDEX
0.001
3.604
0.155
0.113
0.328
0.081
0.740
0.03i>
0.109
1.346
0.340
0*047
0.113
1.260
1.9&5
33.642
4.631
1.126
PINDEX
0.001
8.053
0.367
0.250
0.561
0.185
1 . 745
O.C77
0.183
0.546
0.201
0.044
0.067
1.172
1.158
11.648
1.887
0.3*16
«f
1.82
2.23
2.36
2.22
1.71
2.28
2.36
2.22
1.68
0.40
0.59
0.93
-. 0.59
0.93
0.59
0.35
0.41
0.29
POPEX
0.001
12.478
0.606
0.394
0.848
0.067
2.813
0.028
0.282
0.597
0.305
0.048
0.102
1.896
1.875
22.891
2.687
0.174
W
1.05
1.55
1.65
1.58
1.51
0.36
1.61
C.36
1.54
1.10
1.52
1.10
1.52
1.62
1.62
1.97
1.42
0.53
I
1
1
1
1
i
0
1
0
1
i
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
z
c
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
i
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
i
- NUMBER OF !
345
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1 .
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
SOUR(
6
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
;ES
i
i
i
i
i
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
IN COUNT]
8 9
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
rce 1
Lt J
10
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1


11 TOTAL
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
11
10
10
11
2
11
2
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
 1 i-cOOK,2-OUPAGfct3-GRUNOY,4-KAN£»5-KANKAKEEf6-KENCALL»7-LAKE,8-MCHENRY,9-WILL»10-LAKE IN, %
  11-PORTfcR                                                                               c

-------
TAdLE XVIII.  CONTINUED.
iUUKCt
CATEGORY
849
850
831
852
853
854
836
837
858
859
861
MAb5 -KINUbX . ILL
INDEX Ml
1.212
0.152
0.515
0.021
0.050
0.500
0.017
0.031
0.332
0.501
2.8d7
1.604
0.2CO
0.760
0.019
0.015
-O.324
O.C25
0.071
O.C93
0.510
2.940'
1.32
1.31
1.48
0.90
0.31
0.65
1.48
2.29
C.28
1.02
1.02
PUKtA
2.755
0.255
1.122
0.035
0.024
0.646
0.013
0.027
' 0. 106
C.825
5.477
-til
PI
1.72
1.28
1.48
1.84
1.55
2.00
C.50
0.39
1.14
1.62
1.86
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
• NUMDtK
3 4
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
ur
5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
iUUKUCS 1
6 7
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
in ouuii i ico -
8 9 10
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
11 TOTAL
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
11
11
11
3
2
1
7
5
8
11
11
                                        TOTAL 419  64  37  80  53  21  95  30  398  531  74  1802
 1 i-COOK,2-CUPACEf3-GRONDY,4-KANEt5«KANKAKEE,6-KENDALL,7-LAKet8-MCHENRy,9-rfILLtlO-LAKE  IN,
   11-PURTER

-------
                                                                 170




 (0.04)  for sources which have only CO emissions,  such as in manufacture




 of ammonia by the catalytic reformer process  from natural gas  (category




 183).   All other source-categories have  the PI/MI between these  two




 extremes.   For example:  (a)  sources such as boilers  for electric power




 generation as well as many industrial boilers with emissions of  SC^




 and particulates have generally a high PI/MI  (1.96 to 2.58); (b)  food




 and grain  processing industries which have only particulate emissions




 have PI/MI of 1.96;  (c)  for the various  solvent-evaporation sources,




 PI/MI  is in the vicinity of 1;  and (d) at the lower  end of PI/MI scale




 (0.04  to 0.4)  are sources such as automobiles with large CO and  HC




 emissions.






 PO/PI




     The comparison  of PO/PI for the different source categories is




 more complicated than the comparison of  PI/MI.  In addition to the




 emissions  and  tolerance   factors considered in pindex,  popex includes




 considerations of atmospheric dispersion and  population exposure.




 Popex and  PO/PI are  shown in1column 4 and 5 of Table XVIII.  For each




 of  the  source-categories,  columns 7 through 17 of Table XVIII indicate




 county  locations and number  of sources.   Generally,  PO/PI is large if




 the majority of sources  of a source-category  are  located in a populated




 county,  such as Cook County.   PO/PI also depends  on  the height of




 emission stacks.




     In order  to. evaluate  the impact of  population,  area, and the stack




height on PO/PI,  source-categories which had  all  the sources located in

-------
                                                                 171




a  single county were  chosen for further analysis.   PO/PI of such cate-




gories  is  influenced  by the population area of a single county instead




of a complex  combination of population and areas of many counties.  For




example, out  of the first four categories listed on Table XVIII,  only




source-category 11 has  all of the five sources located in a single




county  (Cook).  Thus, source-category 11 was selected  and PO/PI of  this




category,  along with  the stack heights of the sources  included in this




category,  were noted.  In the case of a source-category which  had sources




with different stack  heights, a pindex-weighted average stack  height was




computed for  the  emissions and stack height data given in Appendix  D and




the tolerance factors given in Table VI.




     Six counties (Cook,  Grundy,  Kane,  Lake in Illinois,  Lake  in  Indiana,
                                              ;



and Will)  out of  the  eleven counties had source-emission data  satisfying




the criterion of  having all sources of a source-category located  in a




single  county.  PO/PI for these six counties are plotted versus the




stack height  (Figure  24).   Plots  for each of the six counties  are




straight lines.   The  slopes increase with increasing population den-




sities  (Table XIX).




     To visualize the influence of the  variables related to population,




area, and  stack heights,  PO/PI is plotted against the  county population




densities  (Figure 25).  According to Figure 25,  for a  constant stack




height the impact of  a  source as  measured by PO/PI  increases with in-




creasing population density.   Similarly for the  same population density,




PO/PI on the  population-health-effect impact of  a source increases  with




decreasing stack  height.

-------
    0.5
H   0.4

I
    0. 3
X
0)
T!


"I


a
X

g,.  0.2

O



4-f

O


0
•H

tJ   0.1
   0.0
       1.




       Figure 24.
                                        j
                                                      _  GRUNDY
_L
I
                                       10
         100
                                             Stack height, feet


                    Plots of stack heights versus PO/PI for different counties.
                                                                                                        1000
                                                                                                              8
                                                                                                               o
                                                                                                               u
                                                                                                               o
                                                                                                              >H

                                                                                                              H
                                                                                                              2

                                                                                                              X*
                                                                                                              0)
                                                                                                               c
                                                                                                              •H
                                                                                                               04
                                                                                                               X

                                                                                                               I
                                                                                                               ft
                                                                                                               14-1
                                                                                                               o
                                                                                                                NJ

-------
                                                               173







TABLE XIX.  POPULATION DENSITIES AND SLOPES OF PO/PI VERSUS STACK




                     HEIGHTS FOR SIX COUNTIES
County
Grundy
Will
Kane'
Lake, Illinois
Lake , Indiana
Cook
Population density
people/square mile
61
295
483
837
1,065
5,753
PO/PI
1 J~ T~~li3.
Stack height,
in meter"
.0001
.0006
.0009
.0016
.0021
.0096

-------
     2.5  r
H

O)
04
1
•H
 a
X

&
0
04

M-l
o

o
•H
-P
     2.0
     1.5
     1.0
0.5
    0.0
        10                             100                             1000



                                        Population density, people/sq. mile



         Figure  25.   Relationships of PO/PI versus population density for different stack heights.
                                                                                               10,000

-------
                                                                 175




 IMPLICATIONS





      Both of the above observations related to stack height and popu-




 lation density variables are generally accepted.   However,  Figure  25




 which is based on results of the computer models,  pindex and popex,




 provides a quantitative method for comparison of  the health-effect im-




 pact on people attributable to the sources of air pollution.




      Pindex is a useful way to combine emissions  of different pollutants




 into a single number and it is used in the following section for eva-




 luating the impact of sources.  The comparison of  PI/MI  for  different




 sources indicates the relative health-impact of their emissions.




      PO/PI and its relation to population densities is useful for  esti-




 mation of the relative impact on the population of two or more  sources




 of air pollution.   In calculating the  ratio,  the effect  of mass emis-




 sions and pollutant-tolerance factors  are eliminated and thus PO/PI be-




 comes a measure of the extent of population exposure only.  By combining




 the  pindex calculations with the relation of PO/PI with  stack height and




 population density,  one can estimate the  relative  dispersion, population




 and  health-effect  impact of different  sources without using the computer




 simulation.




 A Simple  Method for  Determining Relative  Impact of Emission Sources




      The  preceding analysis can be  used to determine the relative  im-




pact  of  sources.   As in popex,  the  data required are the emissions of




the five  pollutants,  stack  heights,  and population densities of the




counties  in which  the  sources  are located.




     The method for  determination of impact involves three steps:

-------
                                                                 176

 (1) Apply tolerance factors (Table VI)  to the emission data.   Pindex  for

 each source N can be calculated using the following expression:

                              5
                 (pindex)N =  I emissions(N,K)  x TF(K)
                             K=l

 where emissions(N,K)  are the emissions  in tons per year of pollutant  K

 from source N.   TF(K)  is the factor based on the tolerance factor  FF(K)

 and TF(K) = FF(CO)/FF(K).

 (2) From Figure 25,  obtain the ratio PO/PI for the appropriate stack

 height and population density.

 (3) Calculate popex for each source from

                            PO
                 (popex)N =
x (pindex)N
 This method can efficiently be  used  for  a smaller  number of sources

 (less than ten).   For a large number of  sources, the direct use of the

 popex computer model would be preferred.


 LIMITATIONS OF THE POPEX MODEL

      An  important  limitation on the  use  of the  popex model is that it

 should be  used in  toto or,  in other  words,  parts of the model should

 not  be used independently of the rest of the model.   To balance the

 complexity and inadequacies in  data,  popex was  built as a "package".

 Thus,  it may be unfruitful  to  use the population  submodel of popex

 with other dispersion models such as AQDM.  Similarly,  the dispersion

 submodel should not  be used only for estimation of air  quality.

     Secondary pollutants other than ozone were not considered in the

model.  Inclusion  of a mechanism of  formation of secondary pollutants

-------
                                                                 177




 like  sulfate or  nitrates,  etc.,  and their tolerance factors could possi-




 bly alter the  results.




      Other  limitations  are explicit in the methodology of the construc-




 tion  of the submodels.   For example, since the model is based on average




 annual factors,  episodic conditions are not considered in the model.




      Finally,  the  research for this dissertation is a "first-generation"




 attempt to  combine diverse parts of the air quality management system.




 Thus, this  work  does  not provide unchangeable or ever-correct answers.




 As our understanding  of many of  the lesser known factors  related  to




 air pollution  and  its effects grows, the popex model could  be improved.




 Further verifications and improvements in the model are left  to others




 and to the  future.  Recommendations for future work are given in  the




 following section.






 FUTURE WORK




      Future work related to this research could be  performed  in many




 directions.  Some  of  the specific recommendations are:




 (1) Results of the popex model could be compared with rankings arrived




 at by a totally  different  method, for example,  a ranking  based on eco-




 nomic and/or technological considerations.   Similarly,  the  results of




 other prioritization  studies mentioned in Chapter I (3,4) could be




 compared with the  results  of the popex model.   A comprehensive compar-




 ison of rankings by different approaches would help in  establishing




true priorities.



 (2)  Popex model was applied to Chicago AQCR data.   Even though the

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                                                                 178




 emission inventory of the Chicago AQCR was largely representative of




 national emissions, it would be useful to apply popex to some other




 region for comparison of the rankings.




 (3)  Specific parts of the model could be improved.  . Of course,  health-




 effect modeling deserves a high priority.   The dose-response curves




 for short term (a few hours)  responses  to  ozone and sulfur dioxide are




 presented in Figures A-l and A-3 to  A-5 of Appendix A.   The levels of




 pollutant concentrations included in these figures  are somewhat higher




 than generally experienced for 03 and,  in  the  case  of SC^, concentra-




 tions are substantially higher than  ambient levels.   When more  defini-




 tive dose-response information is available for the short term  effect




 as well as for longer term effects (several months  or years)  of all the




 pollutants with concentrations near  the ambient levels,  it could be




 used instead of the tolerance factors for  a more-realistic priority




 rankings of sources.




 (4)  The computer program of popex is flexible  and  could be modified to




 consider the impact of secondary pollutants such as sulfates and ni-




 trates  when more definitive information on mechanism of formation and




 on dose-response relationships is available.




 (5)  Population  distributions  which are  specific to  various air  pollu-




 tion sources  could  be  explored and added to the popex methodology.




 (6)  Dispersion  model could be refined and  expanded to include other




meteorological  conditions  not presently included.

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                             CHAPTER XI





                             CONCLUSIONS



      The  results of the popex model show that seventeen out of a total


 of  227  source-categories are responsible for nearly 80 percent of the


 air-pollution-population effect problem (Tables XI   and XIII).   These


 seventeen categories include commonly recognized large sources,  such


 as  automobiles,  large utility and industrial boilers,  mineral product


 industries,  etc.,  as well as less-recognized categories such as  sol-

                                                 *            i
 vent  evaporations  from operations involving surface coatings.  These


 source-categories  have been individually discussed,  and the  factors


 which could  possibly change the rankings are enumerated in Chapter


 VIII.


      The  Industrial Environmental Research  Laboratory  of the EPA has


 ongoing research,  development,  and demonstration projects for control


 of  emissions from  all the stationary  source-categories assigned rank


 one by popex, except possibly for the control of solvent emissions in


 industrial operations (48).   Methods  for control of  solvent  or hydro-


 carbon emissions include adsorption using activated  charcoal or use of


afterburners, but  these do  not  appear to be in  widespread use.  It may


be necessary to develop better  and more  economical methods for control


of hydrocarbons in operations involving  solvents.  Perhaps,  a more


important problem related to hydrocarbon emissions  is  the lack of a


                                 179

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                                                                180




 hydrocarbon emission inventory which classifies the emissions according




 to their reactivities.   A more realistic mechanisms for the formation




 of oxidant than the one included in this project may not be of signi-




 ficant use until such a hydrocarbon emission inventory is available.




      The sensitivity analysis of the popex model provides interesting




 results.  Tolerance factors which are related to health effects of air




 pollutants were identified as the parameters most sensitive in the




 popex model.   Other parameters including the variables related to




 meteorological dispersion were shown to  be of less importance.  The




 results of the sensitivity analysis thus indicate that any additional




 effort for improvement  or additions in the model should be aimed  at




 improving the part related to health effects.




      The present tolerance factors are only indirectly based on health




 effects.  Construction  of dose-response  relationships is essential to




 the development of a more realistic model.   However,  sufficient data




 are not available for developing these relationships.   The review and




 analysis of studies  on the effect of air pollution on human pulmonary




 function (Appendix A) shows that the lack of usable health-effects




 data is not due to lack of studies in this area, as commonly believed,




 but is  primarily due to the failure in a majority of these studies to




 adequately characterize the cause (air pollutants), and the effect




 (pulmonary function)  as well as  inadequate recognition and elimination




of  interference  factors.   These  and other aspects of the health-




effects studies  are  discussed and suggestions for future studies  are




included in Appendix A.

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                                                                181




     Until more definitive information on dose-response relationships




is available, use of the tolerance factors, described in this disser-




tation, appears to be the best available means for assessing the rela-




tive impact of the exposure to any combination of the six pollutants.




     The third significant output of this project is to supply a




simple method for assessing relative impact of air pollution in a




situation with a smaller number of sources.  Development of the pro-




posed method was based on the analysis of the results of the popex




model  (Chapter X) , and this method does not require the use of a com-




puter .

-------
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                                                                184

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 26.   U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency: 1972 National  Emissions
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 27.   U.S.  Bureau of Census: Statistical  Abstracts Supplement-County
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 28.   Allen, R.  J.,  Babcock, L. R. and Nagda, N. L.: Air pollution dis-
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 30.   Neuberger,  H.,  and Cahir, J.: Principles of Climatology.   New
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 32.   Lyons, W.  A. and  Olsson, L. E.: Mesoscale air pollution transport
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 33.   Commonwealth Edison Co.: Meteorological Data for Dresden.   Dresden,
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34.  Biomedjcal Computer Programs. Ed.,  W. J. Dixon.  Berkley,  Calif.,
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35.  Carnow, B.  W.,  Wadden, R. A., Scheff, P., and Musselman, R. :
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                                                                185

 36.  Pinklea,  J.  F.,  Shy,  C.  M.,  Moran,  J.  B.,  Nelson,  W.  C.,  Larsen,
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 37.  Finklea,  J.  F.,  Nelson,  W.  C., Moran,  J. B., Akland,  G. G.,
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       the  Public Health Benefits and Risks Attributable to Equipping
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 38.  Babcock,  L.  R. :  A combined  index for measurement of total air
       pollution.   J.  Air  Pollut. Control Assoc.  20:653-659, 1970.

 39.  Nagda, N. L.  and Babcock, L. R.:  Engineering Analysis Methodolo-
       gies for Air Resource  Management  - Interim Report.   EPA Grant
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 40.  Babcock,  L.  R. and Nagda, N. L. :  Indices of  air quality.  In
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 41.  Babcock,  L.  R. and Nagda, N. L. :  Cost  effectiveness of emission
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 42.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:  National  primary and
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 43.  Larsen, R. I.: A new  model  of air pollutant  concentration averaging
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 44.  Larsen, R. I.: A Mathematical Model for Relating Air  Quality
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 45.  Faith, W. L.  and  Atkisson, A. A.: Air  Pollution, p. 251.  New
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 46.  National Air  Pollution Control Administration:  Nationwide Inven-
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                                                                186

49.  National Air Pollution Control Administration: Air Quality Criteria
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       Department of Health, Education and Welfare, 1969.

50.  Hughes, T. W., Horn, D. A., Sandy, C. W.,  and Serth, R. W.: Source
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       Washington D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1975.

51.  Rubin, E. S.: The influence of annual meteorological variations
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       County, Pa.  J. Air.Pollut. Control Assoc. 24:349-356, 1974.

52.  Assembly of Life Sciences,  National Academy of Sciences - National
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       Printing Office, 1973.

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                              APPENDIX A








           ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING STUDIES OP HEALTH EFFECTS
                                                       3   j-



                           OF AIR POLLUTION
 SUMMARY
      Studies on the health effects of air pollutants v?ere reviewed  and



 evaluated.   In order to provide a quantitative frame of reference,  only



 the  studies  which have used pulmonary function tests for characteriza-



 tion of  the  health effects were selected for this assessment.



      , The past studies reported in the literature wer§  divided  into four



 groups based on study designs.   Results of the 'studies  in each  of the



 groups were  collectively analyzed.   Whenever possible,  based on the data
                              i'
                              j

 reported in  these studies,  dose-response curves  were constructed.   Some

             *                 :                 '

 of the more  subtle results of the studies are also discussed.



       The studies in each of the four groups were examined in detail



 for  the  telative  merits of their methodologies.   In the determination



 of the relative merit of the methodologies,  the  degree  of resolution and



 the  quality  of results were considered to be of  significant importance.



 This  analysis  showed why some of the studies,  or groups of studies, have



 yielded useful  results,  whereas  others have  not.   The reasons for this



 situation are  discussed and recommendations  for  future  work are included.



      Based on  this  review  and the  assessment of the past studies it is



concluded that  the tolerance factors are still the best available means


                                  187

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                                                                  188




 for a relative assessment of the damage  potential  of  the  six pollutants







 INTRODUCTION







       In this dissertation,  the tolerance  factors  derived from the air




 quality  standards were used for quantification  of relative effects  of




 the six air pollutants: particulate  matter,  PM;  sulfur  dioxide,  S02,-




 nitrogen oxides,  NOV;  carbon monoxide, CO; hydrocarbons,  HC; and oxidants,
                    a



 Ox.  The derivation and the  use of the tolerance factors  are given in




 Chapter VI.  The  air quality standards are based on deleterious  effects on




 humans, vegetation, property,  etc. of the  air pollutants  and thus the




 tolerance factors are  based  on health effects.   The tolerance  factors,




 however, allow only a single-point comparison of  the relative effects of




 pollutants.  Dose-response relationships are necessary  for a more realis-




 tic assessment of the  effects  of each pollutant  as well as for a compa-




 rison of effects  among the different pollutants.   In  this appendix,  re-




 sults of the studies on the  health effects of air  pollutants were re-




 viewed and  analyzed in  depth for possible  construction  of dose-response




 relationships.  Furthermore,  these studies were  examined  for the rela-




 tive  merits of  their methodologies.







 Dose-response Relationships




       Dose-response relationships or predictive  equations for  health




 effects  of  air  pollutants, allow one to  estimate effects  of various




 levels of dosages of air pollutants.  The parameter related to dosages




of air pollutants could be a complex combination of time  and concentra-




tion variables.  For example,  the effect of  continuous  exposure to

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                                                                  189




 constant  level  of  air pollutants may be different than intermittant ex-




 posure  to similar  concentrations especially if the degree of effect




 depends on cumulative exposures.




      Similarly, "response" parameters on dose-response curves could




 also  be a combination of effects.  Generally the response is character-




 ized  (a)  by increase in incidence of diseases,  (b)  by aggravation of




 existing  diseases,  or (c)  some clinical indicators, such as  pulmonary




 function  tests  or  level of carboxyhemoglobin in blood.






 Pulmonary Function Tests




      Review of the literature on health effects of the six  air pollu-




 tants (PM,  SO2» NOX,  CO, HC,  Ox) showed that in numerous studies va-




 rious pulmonary function tests have been used alone or  in conjunction




 with  other approaches for characterization of effects.   This is not




 surprising since inhalation is the major route  of entry of pollutants




 into  the  human  body and most  of these pollutants, with  the exception of




 CO and  HC,  have their primary effects on the respiratory system.  The




 pulmonary function  tests supply objective and quantitative information.




 Similarly,  pulmonary  function measurements could indicate effects at a




 subclinical  level which can not be adequately reflected if only increases




 in incidence of diseases are  considered.   Symptomology  should be con-




 sidered for  a complete characterization of effects  on the respiratory




 system.   Studies involving pulmonary function tests were selected for




this research in order to  evaluate the effects  of air pollutants in  a




generalized  and quantitative  manner.

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                 TABLE A-I.  LUNG VOLUMES,  CAPACITIES AND PULMONARY FUNCTION MEASUREMENTS:

                                    NOMENCLATURE AND DEFINITIONS  (Al).
          Name
Abbreviation
                                                              Explanation/definition
Lung volumes and capacities

   Tidal volume                    TV


   Residual volume                 RV


   Total lung capacity             TLC


   Vital capacity                  VC


   Functional residual capacity    FRC


Pulmonary function measurements

   Forced vital capacity           FVC
   Forced expiratory volume
    FEV.
              The volume of gas inspired or expired during each respira-
              tory cycle (liters)

              The volume of gas remaining in the lungs at the end of a
              maximal expiration (liters)

              The amount of gas contained in the lung at the end of a
              maximal inspiration (liters)

              The maximal volume of gas that can be expelled from the lungs
              (liters)

              The volume of gas remaining in the lungs at the resting
              expiratory level (liters)
Maximum volume measured on forced expiration after the
deepest inspiration (liters)

Volume of gas expired over a given time interval, t, (in
seconds) during a forced expiration (liters)

-------
TABLE A-I.  CONTINUED.
Pulmonary function measurements

   Forced expiratory time         FET


   Peak expiratory flow           PEF

   Mid-maximum  expiratory  flow    MMEF
    Maximum expiratory flow
    Maximum expiratory flow
    volume curves
    Airway resistance
    Specific conductance

    "Closing" volume
MEF0
   %vc


MEFV
curves


Raw
SGaw

CV
Time required to expel the total vital capacity during  a
maximal forced expiration  (in seconds)

Peak expiratory flow rate  (liters per second)

Flow rate during 25-75% segment of VC of the forced expira-
tory volume  (liters per second)

Instantaneous maximum expiratory flow rate at specified
lung volumes

Graphic recording of flow versus volume during a forced
expiratory volume maneuver followed by forced inspiration
(flow in liters/second and volume in liters)

Airway resistance is measured by body plethysmograph using
the relation:

   airway resistance = (atmospheric pressure - alveolar
                       pressure)/flow

Reciprocal of  (Raw x Vtg) where Vtg is thoracic gas volume

Lung volume at which dependent lung regions tend to close.
A normal person can expire fully to residual volume; persons
whose lungs have less elastic recoil, whose airways have
lost structural supporting tissue or whose airways are  nar-
rowed, develop widespread airway collapse and trapping  when
they breathe between RV and FRC or even at higher volumes.
                                                                                                            i-1
                                                                                                            ID

-------
TABLE A-I.  CONTINUED.
Pulmonary function measurements

   Static and dynamic        .      Cst,       Slope of static recoil pressure  and the  volume  of lungs
   compliance                      Cdyn       reflects lung compliance.   When  lung stiffness  increases as
                                             a pathological phenomenon,  compliance is low.   The measure-
                                             ment of compliance during breathing is called as  dynamic
                                             compliance (Cdyn)  and the compliance measured from the static
                                             curve is called as static compliance (Cst).   Cdyn is fre-
                                             quency dependent and can be used to assess  airways obstruc-
                                             tion in disease.

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                                                                   193

       Some of the many diagnostic techniques used for the assessment of

 pulmonary function or pulmonary function tests  (PFTs) include (a) spiro-

 metric,  (b)  flow-volume curve,  (c) airway resistance, (d) closing volume,

 and (e)  compliance measurements.  The measurement techniques are briefly

 described in Table A-I1 which also contains definitions of various lung

 volumes  and capacities (Al).

       Physiological changes as a result of exposure to air pollution are

 qualitatively similar to those observed in certain pulmonary diseases.

 In evaluation of obstructive pulmonary diseases, the criteria given in

 Table  A-II are often used  (A2).
                TABLE A-II.   CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION OF
                    OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASES.
PFT1
FEV
PEF
FEV,
FEVl
FEV,
FEV,
Reduction from
Normal Values,
Percent
<20
>50
20-35
35-50
50-65 .
>65
Severity of
Disease
minimal

mild
moderate
severe
very severe
1For explanation of abbreviations  of  the pulmonary  function  tests
see Table A-I.
      As shown later in this appendix  reductions  in  the pulmonary
•'•Numbers of all the tables, figures and references  in  the Appendix have
a prefix 'A' to distinguish them  from  the rest of the  dissertation.

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                                                                  194




 function measurements due to air pollution and due to respiratory infec-




 tions are smaller in magnitude (less than 10 percent at the most)  than




 given in Table A-II.






 Scope




       Studies on measurement of health effects of air pollution include




 animal and human experimental studies done in an exposure-chamber set




 up, and human epidendological studies performed under environmental  or




 occupational conditions.   Each of these types of studies have their  ad-




 vantages and limitations.   In order  to have a complete and reliable




 characterization of the effects,  all of the above-mentioned types of




 studies are required.  In this research the studies which have used  the




 pulmonary function tests  for characterization of effects of the air




 pollutants on the human lung were considered.   The literature reviewed




 in this study is not exhaustive,  however an effort was made to include




 the majority of recent (after 1970)  studies published in English-lan-




 guage  journals.






 Format of Presentation




       The studies have been  divided  into four groups for review and




 analysis  of  their results  (Table  A-III).   This grouping was done only




 for convenience  in analysis  of the studies and the inclusion of a study




 under  one or another group could,  in some instances, be arbitrary.




       In  the  following section, first results of the studies in each




of the groups are  reviewed for construction dose-response curves.  In




the section entitled 'Comments',  some of the results and other subtle

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                                                                  195
 Groups
          TABLE  A-III.   THE GROUPING OP HEALTH-EFFECT STUDIES.
Type of Studies
 Experimental
 Epidemiological
   Group  1  -  correlation
   Group  2  -  cross-sectional
  Group  3  -  longitudinal
Studies done in exposure
chambers.
The goal of these studies was
to correlate results of the
pulmonary function measure-
ments with the environmental
variables.

Studies which compare two or
more groups of subjects having
different air pollution ex-
posures .

Studies assessing long-term
effect of air pollution
points which  are  common to all of the groups are collectively discussed.

Later the method  and the results of assessment of the studies in  the

four groups are described.


EXPERIMENTAL  STUDIES (A3-A11)


Experimental  Details

      The details of the parameters studied in each of the  experimental

exposure-chamber  studies are given in Table A-IV.  In most  of the studies

the duration  of exposures were not more  than a few hours  at a time.  All

the studies except one  (All) used artificially generated  pollutants.

Ozone in seven studies  was  the most studied single pollutant;  two

-------
                   TABLE A-IV.   SUMMARY OF THE EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES.
                                                                             196
-^Studies
Parameters ^""""^-^^^
Year of the study1
Duration of exposures
Pollutants
Concentrations, ppm
Generated or ambient
Pulmonary function tests
FVC, TLC
FRC, RV
FEVt
PEF
MMEF
MEF%VC
KEFV Curves
CV
Raw, Vtg*1
Cst. Cdyn
DLCO
Other
Population

Young Hallet(A4)
et ajU (A3)
1963 1964
2 hr. 30 min.
ozone ozone
0.6-0.8 1-3
gen. gen.

FVC FVC
FEV-?5 FEVi
PEF
MMEF MMEF
DL DL
CO CO

11 adults 20 normal
(10 males, adults
1 female), (9 males,
ages 20-45 11 females)
years ages 17-38.
5 COPD
patients
(2 males,
3 females
ages 48-61.
Bates Hazucha
et al. (AS) elt al_. (A6)
1971 1972
2 hr. 2 hr.
ozone ozore
0.75 0.37,0.75
gen. gen.

FVC FVC.,TLC
RV
FEVX FBVj^
PEF
MMEF MMEF
MEFV MEFV
CV
Cst,Cdyn

10 males 24 males,
ages 22-35. age 24.
12 smokers,
12 nonsmokers.

* Approximate, based on year of acceptance of the particular paper for publication or
on year of publication.
20ther pollutants such as oxidants, nitrogen oxides may have been present which were
not monitored.
3Particulate measured as' number of particles per cubic feet for different size ranges
(accurate conversion to ug/m3 very difficult).  SO2 levels were monitored and were
generally two-thirds less than the ambient levels.
^Specific conductance or Gaw/vtg were calculated from Raw and Vtg.
5Partial expiratory flow rate at 50 percent VC.

-------
              TABLE A-IV.  SUMMARY OP THE EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES.  (CONTINUED)
                                                                                   197
 Parameters
            ^Studies      Xagawa and   Hackney
             	f     Hackney     Anderson     Kerr  (All)
Toyama (A7)  et a^. (A8)   et al. (A9)   et a^. (AlO)
Year of the study1 1974
Duration of exposures 5 min. '
Pollutants ozone
Concentrations, ppm 0.9

Generated or ambient gen.
Pulmonary function tests
FVC, TLC
FRC,RV FRC
PEVt
PEF
MMEF
MEF%VC
MEFV Curves
CV
Raw, Vtg1* Raw, Vtg
Cst,Cdyn
DLCO
Other

Population 4 males,
ages 20-25.









1974
4 hr.
ozone
0.25,0.37,
0.5
gen.

FVC, TLC
RV
FEV,
PEF
:
MEF MEF
50 25
MEFV
CV
Raw, Vtg
Cst, Cdyn
DLCO


4 normal
males,
average
age 43.

4 males
sensitive
to air
pollution,
average
age 34.
1974 1973 1972
2 hr. 6 hr. 6 days
ozone S02 PM, S022
0.25,0.37, 1,5,25 	 3
0.5
gen. . gen. amb.

FVC, TLC TLC
RV FRC,RV
FEVj^ FEVj FEy
-------
                                                                  198




 involved a combination of 03,  NC>2 and CO;  and one study dealt  with S02.




 The study done by Kerr (All)  used "natural" or ambient air pollutants




 and it also had the longest duration (six days) of exposures.




       Generally, an experimental set-up allows better characterization




 of variables and a greater degree of control over experimental variables




 and the factors which may affect the results.  This fact is reflected on




 Table A-IV.  The experimentation with ambient air with simultaneous con-




 trol of temperature and humidity poses special problems.  These problems




 are discussed later in this appendix.




       In the last ten or twelve years there have been substantial im-




 provements in experimental techniques and  design of the exposure-chamber




 studies.   The problems encountered in these types of studies were first




 discussed by Bates  (A12)  and Bates et al.  (A13), and more recently by




 Hackney et al.  (A14).   Due to  the difficulty in establishing statistically




 significant changes in pulmonary function  before and after the exposures,




 recent  studies  have used a larger and larger number of PFTs.  This fact




 is  apparent when Ballet's pre-1964 study (A4) which used five PFTs, is




 compared  with the recent Hackney et^ al.  studies (A8, A9) in which 10-14




 different tests were used.   All the experimental studies done after 1970




 generally have  adequate characterization of changes in pulmonary function




 (Table  A-IV).






 Results




Ozone. -  Similar  experimental  protocol and conditions in the studies




done by two groups:  Hazucha et^ al_, (A6)  and Hackney et^ al_.  (A8, A9)

-------
                                                                  199




 allow construction of a dose-response curve in terms of FEV, .   The curve




 shown in Figure A-l is, in most cases, for two-hour exposures  with inter-




 mittent exercise and is based on "average" FEV,  responses for  each of




 the  two studies.  Hackney e_t al^ (A8)  studied two groups of subjects:  one




 group of "normal" male subjects who had no  history of cough,  chest dis-




 comfort or wheezing associated with allergy or air pollution,  and  a




 "reactive" group  of male subjects who had some of these symptoms.  In




 the  experiment with the normal group, there were no significant and




 consistant changes in normals in most of the tests even with a four-




 hour exposure  to 0.5 ppm ozone.




       However,  for the "reactive" group,  FEV-j^ decreased significantly.




 The  data-points shown in Figure A-l are average  of response for the nor-




 mal  and the reactive group (A9).   Smokers and nonsmokers were  studied




 separately in  the study by Hazucha et al.  (A6).   Although smokers and




 nonsmokers had different initial  pulmonary function measurements, the




 changes in FEV,  due to exposure to ozone were similar  in both  the groups.




       The  dose-response  curve shown  in Figure A-l was for single expo-




 sures  of ozone  and the "dose" was defined by concentration of  ozone only.




For more realistic dose-response  curves or for response-predictive  ex-




pressions,  effects of the length  of duration of  exposures as well as  the




effect  of  cumulative  exposures have to be  considered.   Although enough




quantitative information for  construction  of such response-predictive




expressions is not available,  qualitative  effect of the above  mentioned




factors as well  as  other factors  such as  exercise are  discussed below.




      One series of experiments done  by Hackney  (A8) gave an opportunity

-------
                                                  200
xww




90



0
il
c
o
t \
0 80
M-l
O
4J
C
 >0
x *v
X \u
\ X
maximum ^^^ ^L X^

response, V x 10
Hackney et al. O \ \
(A9) \ ^ \
^ \ >
\ x
>
\ \
v ^


O



maximum response,
Hazucha e^t al. (A6)
-


o Average response of
6 adults per group,
-
O Average response of


•„,_..__ VQCU'V^l'l C!O
ClVfcii cty G J. co^Jwiioc
in both the studies




v
\
\
\
\
\
\ \
\ \
\
^A \
*^ V
\ ^
v
»
\
s
%
^
smokers and nonsmokers,
from Hazucha et al. (A6)

reactive and normal males
three groups, 5-7 adults per group, from
Hackney et^ al. (A9)
£ ~"~
I l


l i
           0.25
0.5
0.75
1.0
              O  Concentration, ppm
Figure A-l.  Dose-response curve for two hours of
             exposure to ozone for adults.

-------
                                                                  201




 to examine the effect of a combination of two factors: cumulative ex-




 posure and the duration of exposure (Figure A-2).  in this particular ex-




 periment,  with four-hour exposures, on the second day of exposure to 0.5




 ppm ozone  the experiment had to be stopped at the end of two hours  for




 three out  of four subjects.  Thus the data reported for various PFTs in




 Figure A-3  are for four-hour exposure on the first day and two-hour  ex-




 posure on  the following day.  In Figure  A-2, the effect of cumulative




 exposure is seen in MEF5Q and MEF25 since second-day values for these




 tests are  lower than, for the first day despite the fact that duration




 of exposure was reduced on the second day.  In FVC and FEV1 such cumu-




 lative effect is not seen and the results of  these tests appear to  be




 dependent  on the length of exposure.  These conclusions should  be con-




 sidered as tentative since the differences between the first and second




 day of exposures may not be statistically significant.




       The  observations in Figure A-2 were for  "reactive" subjects and




 showed the combined effect of cumulative exposures and duration of  ex-




 posures.   The effect on the pulmonary function is greater when  the  length




 of exposure increases from one to two hours.   Table A-V shows the changes




 in the  statistical levels of significance between the controls  and  the




 group  subjected to one-hour and two-hour exposures to 0.37 ppm  ozone.




 The  level of significance improved in all cases with an increase in




 duration of exposures  (Table A-V).   Levels of significance for  0.75 ppm




 ozone are even  better  (A6) .  Figure A-3 shows  that MMEF decreases by




 approximately 20%  after each one  and two hours of exposures for 0.75




ppm ozone.    It  is  likely that some type of "leveling off" in reduction

-------
100
90
80
70
60
o^
"
-
-
-
i
c


























: 1 2 c 1 2 c




.





-
«M
'


-
i ;
12 c 1 2
100
90
80
70
60
? 0
FVC FEVjL MEF5Q MEF25
c - control
1 - exposure to 0.5 ppm ozone first day, four hours,
Figure A-2.
    as percent of control
2 - exposure to 0.5 ppm ozone the following day, two hours,
    as percent of control

Effect of combination of cumulative exposures and duration
of exposures on four "reactive" adult males (A8).
                                                                                         to
                                                                                         o
                                                                                         to

-------
                                                                  203
    TABLE A-V.  CHANGES IN LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE DUE TO A CHANGE IN
           DURATION OF EXPOSURES OF SMOKERS AND NONSMOKERS
                       TO 0.37 PPM OZONE  (A6)
Test
Nonsmoker/
 Smoker
Level of statistical significance
for the difference from the control
                              One-hour exposure
                               of 0.37  ppm 0
                                          Two-hour exposure
                                           of 0.37  ppm 03
FVC

FEV

MMEF

MEF5Q
nonsmoker
smoker
nonsmoker
smoker
nonsmoker
smoker
nonsmoker
smoker
<.05
<.05
NS'1
NS
NS
NS
NS
NS
<.01
<.001
<.01
<.005
<.05
<.05
<.05
1NS - not significant at 0.05

-------
      100
8
•H
-M
•H

•H

4-1
0
0)
O
A
(S
to
a
       90
       80
       70
       60
      50
                                               204
Vertical lines represent one
standard deviation on each side.
Based on exposure of 0.75 ppm ozone
to smokers and nonsmokers, six
adult males per group, Hazucha
et al. (A6).
                    Duration of exposures,  hours

          Figure A-3.  Dose-response  curve  for ozone:  effect
                       of durations of  exposures.

-------
                                                                  205


 would occur after two hours but this certainly is not seen up to two



 hours of exposures.  Studies of longer exposure durations are required



 for any further analysis of effect of the length of exposure.



       The effect of cumulative exposure is also clearly seen in normal



 subjects.  The exposure to 0.5 ppra ozone on two consecutive days showed



 a marked reduction in lung function on the second day (A9).  On the
      *,


 first day of the two-day exposures (two hours each day)  only one out of



 13 PFTs showed a significant change from the control measurements.   How-



 ever, on the second day, 10 out of the same 13 tests showed significant


 changes.



       The effects of ozone are more pronounced with exercise.  The  com-



 parison of results of Young et^ al. (A3)  with no exercise and Hazucha



 et al.  (A6)  with moderate intermittent exercise (enough to double the



 minute volume)  show that for similar concentration there is a greater



.decrease in FEV.  with exercise.   Similarly,  Kagawa and Toyama (A7)  found



 no significant difference in Gaw/Vtg from control if the subjects did



 not undertake exercise.   With exercise,  the difference in Gaw/Vtg was



 highly significant (Table A-VI).   It thus appears that exercise exacer-



 bates the effect of ozone in view of the significant difference between



 the effects  of ozone with and without exercise observed in these res-



 piratory function studies.   However,  based on available information,



 incorporation of effect  of exercise in dose-response curves was,not,



 possible.


 Ozone, nitrogen dioxide  and carbon monoxide.  - No consistent results



 were  obtained in  two experimental studies with sequential exposure  to

-------
                                                                 206
     TABLE A-VI.  EFFECTS OF OZONE AND  EXERCISE ON THE PULMONARY
                      FUNCTION OF MALE ADULTS.
Study
Concentrations
 and Duration
 of  Exposure
Excercise
PFT
Level of Signifi-
cance of the
difference from
control
(no ozone)
Young
et al.
(A3)


Hazucha
et al.
(A6)



Kagawa and
Toyama
(A7)





0.6 - 0.8 ppm No
2 hours



0.75 ppm
2 hours Yes 1


' i

0.9 ppm
5 minutes No
0.9 ppm
5 minutes - Yes2


FVC P <.,05
FEV->75 P <.05
MMEF Not significant



FVC , , P <.05
FEV-i P < . 01
MMEF P <.05
V ^


Gaw/Vtg Not significant

Gaw/Vtg P <.01
 Fifteen minutes on ergometer, sufficient to double minute-volume.

-Pedaling at 50 rpm for 5 minutes at a load of 100 kg - m/min.

-------
                                                                   207




°3' N02' ^"d C0  (A8'  A9)•   These studies are summarized in. Table A-VII.




Sulfur dioxide.  -  The study by Andersen et. al.  (A10)  was done  to eva-




luate the S02  threshold limit value,  TLV, of 5  ppm for occupational  ex-




posures.  Concentrations (1,  5 and 25 ppm)  involved in this study are




much higher than ambient levels except 1 ppm level may possibly  be




reached in episodic  conditions.  However, some  of  the conclusions of




this study are interesting.   Figure A-4 shows that the effect  on FEV,




of high concentrations of  S02 is minimal.  The  changes in MMEF are some-




what larger.   The  dose-response curves are  nonlinear  and twenty-five




percent the change at 25 ppm in MMEF  occurs at  one ppm and  after one




ppm the changes  are  almost linear.  It is possible that this initial




steep change could occur at concentrations  well below 1 ppm.   Another




interesting finding  in the Anderson et_ al.  study was  that changes in




closing volume were  not significant even at high concentration,  implying




that SO2 may effect  only the  upper airways.




Ambientair. - In  an unusual  study with experimentally controlled six-




day exposure to  ambient air no meaningful differences were  observed




between clean  and  ambient  air phases  (All).   The subjects breathed




clean filtered air for the first three days  and ambient air for  the  last




three days of  the  six-day  exposure.   In the  second experiment  this order




was reversed;  ambient air  was breathed for  the  first  three  days  and




clean filtered air for the last three days.   Other variables such as




temperature, humidity and  sleep-awake cycle  were rigidly controlled.




      The results  of  the study implying ''no  effect" due to  ambient air

-------
                      TABLE A-VII.   SEQUENTIAL EXPOSURE  OF OZONE,  NITROGEN  DIOXIDE
                                    AND CARBON MONOXIDE TO ADULT MALES.
Study
Population
Pollutant and Exposure
Results
Hackney  (A8)
4 - normal
Hackney  (A9)
1 - normal
                    5  -  'reactive'
1st day:
 O.Sppm 03
2nd day:
 0.5ppm 03 + 0.3 ppm N02
3rd day:
 O.Sppm 03 + 0.3 ppm NO2
 +30 ppm CO
(four-hour exposures)

1st day:
 0.25 ppm O3
2nd day:
 0.25 ppm O3 + 0.3 ppm NO2
3rd day:
 0.25 ppm O3 + 0.3 ppm NO2
 + 30 ppm CO
(two-hour exposures)
                                                                            Changes  small  in
                                                                            magnitude  and
                                                                            not consistent
                                                             and FVC
                                                        decreased with
                                                        03 + N0? (day 2),
                                                        no significant
                                                        changes in other
                                                        measurements.
                                                                                                     to
                                                                                                     o
                                                                                                     00

-------
                                                                209
     100
 s
r-l
 (D
•H
-P
-H

•S
id
-M
0>
P4
                         Based on Andersen et al.  (AlO)
                                10
                                     15
20
                         SO  Concentration, ppm
Figure A-4
                     Dose-response curves for adult males  for

                     six-hours of exposure to SO2.

-------
                                                                  210


 pollutants were not surprising since  the  concentrations  of  air pollu-
                                                       .*

 tants in the "ambient air" phases of  the  study were  substantially lower


 (possibly 60-70 percent lower)  than actually prevailing  outside  (All,


 A15).


       Although the  results of  the Kerr  study  (All) were  negative, it


 offers useful information for  future  studies  (see the  section on


 comments).



 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES:  GROUP 1 - CORRELATION  STUDIES  (A16-A20)


 Details


       The details of the studies are  given  in Table  A-VIII.  The time-


 span of this group  of epidemiological studies were a few weeks to one


 year in length.  In most of the studies PFT observations were made once


 a  week,  whereas  enrivonmental  variables were continuously being moni-


 tored.   Two of the  more recent studies  (A19, A20) seemed to have moni-


 tored all  six of the air pollutants for which ambient  air quality stand-


 ards exist.   It  is  recognized  that the  term "all of  the  pollutants"  is


 relative; the list  of air pollutants  is expected to  grow with time and


 newer pollutants are continually being  recognized and  studied.  Thus


 it must be  noted that in the mid 1960's oxidants and nitrogen oxides


were not thought to  be  a problem outside  Los Angeles area,  also routine


methods for monitoring  these pollutants may have  been unavailable.  How-


ever, for the  sake of comparison of the results  of these epidemiologic


studies, it was necessary to define the "pollutants  not  included"


 (Table A-VIII).

-------
         TABLE A-VIII.  EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES:  GROUP 1-CORRELATION STUDIES.   211
^\^St«dies
Parameters "--N^,^^
^*""*%«s>to
Study period1



frequency of
observations
Pollutants studies

Pollutants not included3
Spodnik
et al.
(A16)
Sept '64
June ' 65 .



weekly
PM


Spicer Emerson (A18)
et al. (A17)

two 7 week 1969-1971
study
periods
1965-1966.

daily weekly
PM,S02,H02 PM2,S02


Kagawa and
Toyawa (A19)

June-Dec.
1972.



weekly
PM,S02,NO
N02,HC,Ox,
°3
Kagawa
et a^. (A20)

Nov 1972-
Oct 1973.



weekly
PM,SO2,N02
Ox

(which could possibly have
interference effects)
SOX,NOX
Ox NOx,Ox*
— —
_^^
Other stressors  studied5 T,RH     T,RH,BP,WS  T,RH,BP,WS    T,RH
T,RH
Pulmonary function
FVC, TLC
FRC, RV
FEVt
PEF
MMEF
MEF%VC
MEFV Curves'
CV
Raw, Vtg6
Cst, Cdyn
Other



Population

.


tests
TLC FVC, TLC
FRC FRC, RV
FEV^, FEVj
PEF



.
Raw.Vtg7 Raw.Vtg7





100 mal* 37 patients
adults with chro-
average nic bron-
age 20 chitis and
years bronchial
asthma

FVC

FEVi
PEF
MMEF





Max inspi-
ratory flow
rate

18 patients
(14 males,
4 females)
with chronic
airways
obstruction

FVC
FRC



MEF50,MEF25
MEFV Curves

Raw,Vtg

Slope of
alveolar
plateau
(N2%)
20 children
(10 males,
10 females) ,
average age
11

t
FVC
FRC



MEF50,MEF25
MEFV Curves

Raw,Vtg





20 children
(10 males.
11 females),
average age
11

lAs reported in the particular study or estimated based on the date of publication.
2As smoke in jig/»^.
3See text for explanation.
''British studies, generally, include only smoke and SOX as pollutants.  It is possible
that due to automobile traffic, nitrogen oxides and oxidants could be present in the
London atmosphere.
5T - temperature, RH - relative humidity, BP - barometric pressure, US - windspeed.
6Gaw/Vtg is calculated from Raw and the thoracic volume.
7Uppei: and lower airway resistance *nd lower airway conductance were also calculated.

-------
                                                                  212


       All of the studies have monitored other environmental stressors


 such as temperature and relative humidity.   Most of the studies  have an


 adequate characterization of the pulmonary  function including character-


 ization of both upper and lower airways.  Finally,  a good spectrum of


 segment of population has been studied including healthy adults  and


 children, as well as patients with chronic  obstructive pulmonary diseases.
                                                         i
 Results


       Larger number of variables were  involved in this group of  five


 epidemiological studies than in the group of experimental studies.  The

                                                   •
 results of these studies were less conclusive phari  the experimental


 studies.


       All of the studies attempted to  obtain correlation between environ-


 mental variables and results of the pulmonary function tests. Ambient
                                                                 i

 temperature seemed to have the strongest correlation with changes in


 pulmonary function.   With decrease in  temperature,  air-way resistances


 increased (A17,  A20)  and MEF^Q decreased (A20).   Increase in temperature


 appears to have a dilating effect on both upper and lower airways.


 Among  other environmental variables, windspeed and  humidity had  some


 effect on the pulmonary function.


       In pre-1971 studies only one study  (A17)  was able to show some
          i                    ;

 correlation between  concentration of air pollutants (SO_) and decrease


 in FEV^   Even  in this  case,  the correlation may be due to very  high SO2


 levels  (peak concentration of .45 ppm)  experienced  in one segment of the


 study.   It  appears that absence of significant correlations between con-


centration of air pollutants  and pulmonary  function could be due to the

-------
                                                                  213



 fact that all  the pollutants were not monitored.   This observation  seems




 to be  substantiated by two of the more recent studies (A19,  A20) .




       In two studies (A19, A20)  performed in Japan on 11-year  old chil-




 dren,  pollutants such as  oxidants and nitrogen oxides were monitored  in




 addition to particulates  and sulfur dioxide.  Characterization of pul-




 monary function was also  more extensive as compared to the pre-1971




 studies.  Ozone and nitrogen dioxide seemed to have effect on  the upper




 airways of majority of the children during the period November to March




 (low temperature season in Japan).   Concentrations of NO, SO,, and PM




 correlated well with MEFg0 and MEF25 which are reflectors of changes




 in the lower airways.




       Finally,  Kagawa et  al.  (A20)  has found a dose-response relationship




 between concentration of  NO2 and MEF50 (Figure A-5).   Although R2 of  this




 regression exercise is small (0.20),  this is the only air-pollution-re-




 lated  dose-response relationship which has resulted from this  group of




 epidemiological studies.






 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES:   GROUP  2 - CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES  (A21-A25)




 Details



      The details of six  epidemiologic cross-sectional studies are shown




on Table A-IX.  Although  some of the  studies were  done over  a  period  of




two or three years,  the main aim of each of these  cross-sectional stu-




dies was to compare  the effects  on  similar segments of population of




the differentials in air pollution  prevalent in two or more  areas.




      Particulates and  S02 were  the only pollutants considered in three

-------
                                                      214
   160
   140
1
   120
   100
                                Based  on  Kagawa  et  al.  (A2Q)
R2 = 0.2
                                extreme-response  envelopes
0.05
0.1
           0.15
                                                       0.2
                     Concentration of NO,,,  ppm

        Figure A-5.   Dose-response curve of nitrogen dioxide
                      for children of age eleven years.

-------
TABLE A-IX.  EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES:  GROUP 2 - CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES
^ .^Studies
Parameter ^"""^-"..^^^
Locations and study
period

Pollutant studied

Average concentration
of pollutants in low
pollution areas as a
percent of the same in
high pollution areas
Interference factors
studied
.
Anderson and
Ferris (A21)
Berlin, N.H. : 1961,
Chilliwack, B.C.
Canada: 1963
PM, SO

PM, 29
S02, 8



Smoking


Lunti et al.
(A22)
Sheffield,
England: Summer
terms 1963-65
PM, SO

PM, 31
S02, 50



Socioeconomic ,
siblings

Shy et

Chattanooga : •
1968-69 school
year
PM, SO .sulfates.
NO , nitrates
NO , 64




Socioeconomic ,
sex, month of
testing
al. (A23, A24)

Cincinnati :
1967-68
school year
PM, S02,
sul fates
PM, 64




Socio-
economic
sex, race


New York:
1970-71

PM, S02,
sulfates, NO.
PM, 49
S02, 46
Sulfates, 77
NO2, 37

Socio-
economic, sex.
age group
Mostardi
(A25)
Barberton and
Revere , Ohio :
1970-73
PM, SO22

PM, 70
S02, 78



Race


Pulmonary function tests
FVC
FEVt
PEF
MMEF
Population








FVC
FEV1


Berlin, N.H.
(high pollution)
1261 adults, ages
25—74 years

ChillawacJc, B.C.
(low pollution)
558 adults.
ages 25-74 years
FVC
FEV.75


Four areas of
Sheffield (one
in low, 3 in
high pollution
areas)
819 children.
average age.
5 years


FEV.75


Four areas of
Chattanooga
987 children,
ages 7-8 years



*


FEV.75


Several areas
of Cincinnati
394 children.
ages 7-8 years






FEV_75


Several areas of
low, intermediate
and high- pollution
2 364. children.
ages 5-13 years




FVC
PEV.75
(FEV! in 1970)
MMEF (in 1970)
Barberton (higher
population)
50 children.
average age.
14 years




*PM mean and as dustfall.
In these studies, SO2
3PM measured as smoke.
levels were estimated

from lead sulfaticn rates.




to
LT.

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                                                                  216


 studies (A21,  A22,  A25).   The other  three  studies  done  under  the U.S.


 Environmental  Protection  Agency's  Community Health and  Environmental


 Surveillance System (CHESS) program  monitored pollutants  such as N02,


 sulfate,  nitrates,  in addition  to  PM and SC>2 (A23,  A24) .


       A very limited number of  pulmonary function  tests have  been used


 in all of the  studies.  A majority of studies including the CHESS


 studies chose  to use FEV^ 75 which is  thought to be  4 less  sensitive  in-


 dicator of changes  in lower airways.   One  of the factors  that might have


 influenced choice of the  test could  be the large number of subjects stu-


 died.   In five out  of six studies, size of the population sample was of


 the order of several-hundred.   Similarly,  in a majority of the studies


 effects on children were  studied.


 Results


      ,A11 of the studies  are able  to show  some differences in pulmonary


 function  between groups of subjects  who were exposed to "high" and  "low"

                                                                 !
 levels  of air  pollution.   In one of  the early studies,  Anderson and


 Ferris  (A21) found  significant  differences in FEV,  and  PEP in residents


 of  Berlin,  New Hampshire  and Chilliwack, British Columbia.  Berlin  being


 a manufacturing center of pulp, paper and  paper products  had  levels of


 SO_ twelve  times that of Chilliwack,  which is situated  in an  agricultural


 area.   The  differences in FEV^  and PEF were significant even  after  con-


 trolling  for age, height,  sex,  and smoking habits.   In  this study,  PEF


appeared to be  a somewhat more-sensitive indicator than FEV,  (A21).


      In the case of children,  most  of the studies are  able to show


small but significant differences  between  low and  high  air pollution

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                                                                   217




 exposure  areas (A22,  A25).   The differences in pulmonary function between




 low and high pollution have been gradually decreasing over the years as




 the air pollution levels in higher pollution areas have been decreasing




 (A24,  A25).




       Results of these studies are less conclusive than the results of




 the first two groups  of studies.  It is felt that the pulmonary function




 tests  such as FEV_?5  may not be a sufficiently sensitive indicator for




 observing effects of  air pollution.






 EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES:  GROUP 3 - LONGITUDINAL STUDIES  (A26-A31)




 Details




       Longitudinal studies  on the long-term effect of air pollution on




 pulmonary function were conducted  (Table A-X)  by two groups of inves-




 tigators:   Lawther et^ aJU  (A26-A28) and Ferris et^ ai. (A29-A31) .   These




 studies were five to  ten years in length.  Lawther et^ al.  (A26-A28)  per-




 formed pulmonary function measurements almost daily on a small number




 of  individuals.   The  second group of studies done in the U.S., by con-




 trast  used a large sample of population.   In the Berlin, New Hampshire




 study,  Ferris  et. al.-  (A29-A31)  took spirometric measurements twice:




once at the  beginning of the study in 1961 and then at the end of the




study  in 1967.   Particulates and S02 were the only two pollutants moni-




tored  in all of  these studies.




Results




      Results of  this group of studies were less conclusive than the




first three groups of studies.   Lawther ejt al^.  (A26/A27) found small but

-------
                    TABLE A-X.   EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES:   GROUP 3  -  LONGITUDINAL STUDIES
Parameters
Lawther et al. (A26,A27)    Lawther et al. (A28)    Ferris et al.  (A29,A30,A31)
Study period
Location
Frequency of
observations
Pollutants studied
Inteference factors
considered
1960-65, 69
London, England

Daily
PM,2 SO

                                                                                                           CD
 'PM as  smoke.

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                                                                  219




 consistent  seasonal changes in FEV± and in PEP (winter values 1.5 percent




 lower  than  summer).  Changes in pulmonary function over a period of years




 were less consistent.   In fact, there was a gradual increase (1.5 percent)




 in PEF over five years whereas a decrease of about 0.3 percent per year




 due to age  would be expected.   One possible reason: performing the res-




 piratory function tests daily may have had the effect of "training".




       Reduction in air pollution from 1961 to 1967 in Berlin,  New Hamp-




 shire  (by approximately 20 percent in particulates and 30-40 percent in




 sulfur oxides)  showed some increase in FVC and PEF and inconsistent




 changes in  FEV   (A31).   Repiratory infections (A27,A28)  and  smoking (A29,




 A31) appear to  be strong factors in influencing changes in pulmonary




 function.




       MMEF  showed the most consistent association with air pollution as




 compared to FVC,  FEV± and PEF (A26,A27) .   The use of less-responsive




 tests  may be one of the important reasons for the inconsistent results




 obtained for the long term effect of air  pollution on the pulmonary




 function.






 COMMENTS






       The preceding reviews affirm the recognized complexity of the




problems of interactions of exposure to air pollution and the  difficulties




 inherent in the design  of studies to measure the  effects of  air pollutants




on human health.   It is natural that any  document or studies dealing with




the problem of how  air  pollution affects  health would draw criticism.   On




the other hand, almost  all  of  the studies,  even those not having any

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                                                                  220



 consistent positive results,  provide useful insights into the complex




 problem.  The purpose of this section is to review and discuss such




 subtle points as well as specific difficulties associated with both




 experimental and epidemiological studies,  and to develop recommendations




 for methodologies and techniques for future studies.  The following dis-




 cussion on exposure chamber studies is specifically related to experi-




 mental studies,  subsequent discussion is common to both experimental and




 epidemiological  studies.




 Exposure-Chamber Studies




       Studies with artificially generated pollutants have been performed




 more frequently  than those involving exposure to ambient air pollution.




 Even in the case of artificially generated pollutants, exposure to single




 pollutants are studied more often than exposure to multiple pollutants.




 It is very difficult to realistically duplicate actual exposure conditions




 with artificially generated single pollutants and much more difficult to




 do so with multiple pollutants.   The concept of experimentally controlled




 exposure to ambient air which allows simultaneous exposure to several




 pollutants present in the atmosphere is thus very attractive.  In prac-




 tice,  however, the experimentation with ambient air pollution poses seve-




 ral  problems.




       Among the  environmental variables, temperature may have a greater




 effect on  the pulmonary function than the air pollutant of interest.




 Therefore,  temperature must be rigidly controlled in experimental stu-




dies.  A substantial  portion  of particulates present in the ambient air




may be removed in  the process of controlling temperature and humidity

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                                                                  221

 or in the conditioning of ambient air.  Similarly, once inside the ex-

 posure chamber,  pollutants such as S02 or Ox may decay rapidly.  In the

 only study with  ambient air, oxidants were not monitored.   The levels

 of SO2 were 6 to 62 percent (average 33 percent)  of those  actually pre-

 vailing outside.

       To circumvent the problems with ambient air, artificially generated

 pollutants are used.  With artificially generated pollutants,  replication

 of levels of O3, S02, NO, N02 is possible but replication  of concentra-

 tion and composition of particulates would be difficult.   Similarly

 total  oxidants  include ozone and other oxidants  and even  though exact

 levels of ozone  could be achieved, it would be very difficult  to repli-

 cate the total oxidants in exposure chambers.   Pros and cons of the

 artificial or ambient air pollutants have to be considered before de-

 ciding on a specific experimental study.


 Monitoring of Air Pollutants

       Adequate characterization of all the air pollutants  is extremely

 important.   Generally,  studies which adequately monitored  pollutants

 have been able to show consistent and distinct effect of air pollutants.

 Unfortunately, only four (A19,A20,A23,A24)  out of the 15 non-experimental
                                                   !
 studies  have adequately characterized the six air pollutants present  in

 the  ambient  air.   It is recognized that at the time when some  of the

 studies  were done (early or  mid 1960s), routine methods for monitoring

of pollutants such as NOX, Ox,  were not available.   However, even in  some

of the more  recent studies  (A11,A25)  air  pollutants have not been

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                                                                  222


 adequately characterized and monitored.

       The list of identified pollutants  is  expected to  grow.   Similarly

 the techniques for measurement have been and will  be improved  with  time.

 For example, even the reference method for  NO2  had to be  changed  recently

 due to its variable efficiency over the  concentration measurement range

 (A32).  The following table gives  methods for measurement of various

 gaseous pollutants (A33).
       TABLE A-XI.   SOME OF THE ACCEPTABLE  METHODS  FOR MONITORING
                     OF GASEOUS AIR POLLUTANTS.
             Pollutants             Method based  on
                S02                 Colorometric
                                    Coulometric
                                    Flame Photometric
                NO2                 Colorometric
                                    Chemiluminescent
                 03                Chemiluminescent
                                   UV Absorption

                CO                 Flame  ionization  using
                                   gas  chromatograph
                                   Nondispersive  infra-red

                HC                 Flame  ionization  using
               	gas  cfrromatograpfr	
      In the case of particulates, hi-volume  sampler  for measurement of

total suspended particulates  is a minimum requirement.   However,  it re-

veals nothing about size or species.  Deposition  of particles in  the lung

depends on particle size  and thus hi-vol measurements  should be  supple-

mented with measurement of particle-size distribution (A34).   Similarly,

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                                                                  223




 the chemical analysis of particulates (A35)  should be carried out in




 order to provide useful information for correlation with health effects.






 Pulmonary Function Tests




       The distribution of the use of different pulmonary function tests




 among the four groups of studies is interesting (Table A-XII).   The  first




 two groups of studies, i.e.,  experimental and epidemiological-correlation




 studies,  have almost equal use-distribution  of the different  PFTs, al-




 though experimental studies have used FEV^,  MMEF,  CV,  Cst and Cdyn,  etc.,




 more frequently.   In the remaining two groups of epidemiological studies




 FEVfc/  FEV, and PEF or the PFTs which characterize  function of upper  air-




 ways were used more often.




       As  mentioned earlier in this review cross-sectional and longitu-




 dinal epidemiological studies have less  consistent results than  the  expe-




 rimental  and epidemiological-correlation groups of studies.   A larger




 number of variables are involved in epidemiological studies and  thus the




 results are expected to be  less conclusive or clear-cut  as compared  to




 the  studies done  under more controlled experimental situations.   However,




 it is  felt that one of the  reasons for less  conclusive results of the




 last two  groups of studies  could be an inadequate  characterization of




pulmonary function or use of  less-sensitive  PFTs.   A brief review on




 sensitivity of  the different  PFTs follows.




Sensitivity. - Macklem and Mead (A36)  have demonstrated that the  major




site of resistance to air-flow in the normal tracheobronchial tree is in




the larger  or central airways (>  2mm).   The  smaller or peripheral airways

-------
      TABLE A-XII.   DISTRIBUTION OF THE USE OF PULMONARY FUNCTION TESTS IN THE STUDIES REVIEWED
Group
 Total Number
of  Studies in                             MEFV     Raw,  Cst
  Each Group     FVC FEVt PEF MMEF MEF%VC Curves CV Vtg  Cdyn
Experimental studies  (A3-A11)            9


Epideraiological studies:

 Group 1 - correlation  (A16-A20)         5

 Group 2 - cross-sectional  (A21-A25)     6

 Group 3 - longitudinal  (A26-A31)        3
                  68552      444     3
                  42212

                  3   61

                  2231
                                                                                                        ro
                                                                                                        NJ

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                                                                  225




 (<  2mm),  in contrast,  appear to contribute very little to overall resis-




 tance.  The importance of this finding is that early airways obstruction




 involving smaller airways may be present and smouldering for many years




 before  it becomes extensive enough to cause measurable changes in air




 flow by conventional spirometric tests such as FEV,, FVC, PEF, etc.




 (A37).  Similarly, early effects of air pollutants could be on smaller




 airways and thus characterization of smaller airway function is essential.




      The ability to detect early airways obstruction would appear to




 depend  on the use of a technique which is capable of measuring changes at




 the small airways.  Such techniques include closing volume,  MEFV curves,




 frequency dependence of compliance as well as the spirometric tests  such




 as  MMEF,  MEFcjQ,  and MEF2^-   The measurement of compliance is a useful




 technique but it requires complex and costly equipment and,  due to some-




 what unstable measurements,  it may not be suitable for routine use.




      The maximum expiratory flow volume (MEFV)  curves allow analysis  of




 flow at both high and  low lung volumes.   Analysis of flow at low lung




 volumes is particularly important in detection of early obstruction




 (A38).  Bouhuys  (A39)  stresses that recording MEFV curves can be rigor-




 ously standardized,  quality-controlled by computer software, and suitable




 for  routine use.   In fact,  in an air pollution-effect study  of 111




 children,  Zapletal et.  al.  (A40)  showed use of MEFV curves to be a sensi-




 tive  and  valuable test.



      Measurements such as MMEF,  MEF5Q,  and MEF25 are also suitable




 since they provide flow rates at low lung volumes (A41).   McFadden and




Linden  (A42)  showed  that even when tests such as Raw, FEV-^  PEF and  TLC

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                                                                  226





 were all within the predicted statistical norms, low MMEF represented




 significant airways obstruction in peripheral bronchioles.  Cochrane




 ejt al. (A43) found that in a group of 21 smokers with relatively normal




 values of FEV-L, over 60 percent of these individuals had abnormal values




 of MEF75, MEFso and FET.




       The measurement of closing volume is a simple and sensitive test




 for the obstruction of smaller airways.  It is also considered to be




 well suited for routine use in a pulmonary function laboratory or as a




 screening tool in epidemiological studies (A44,A45).  However, in one




 study (A43) for 9 out of a total of 21 subjects, there were difficulties




 in the intrepretation of tracings of closing volumes.  Similarly for




 closing volume measurements the range of the normal values is large




 which tends to diminish the usefulness of the technique (A46).




       The above comments on the relative-insensitivity of conventional




 spirometric tests (FVC, FEV1,  PEF)  to detect minor abnormalities in




 small airways and to detect effects of air pollution are in essence the




 same as  those made in 1968 by Bates (A47)  and by Frank (A48).  The




 choice of appropriate and sufficiently sensitive PFTs may determine the




 potential for results of a given air pollutionTeffect study.   For ade-




 quate characterization of pulmonary functions, a combination of tests




 that  are  sensitive to lower airways (such as MEFV curves, MMEF, MEFcQ,




 MEF25' FET)  as  well as tests that are predominantly for detecting resis-




 tance  in  upper  airways (FEv^,  PEF)  should be used.




 Interference  factors.  - There  are many factors which could interfere




with a measurement of effects  of air pollutants with pulmonary function

-------
                                                                  227




 tests.   Smoking,  respiratory illnesses, as well as environmental factors




 such as temperature have considerable influence on the results of pul-




 monary  function tests.  A reduction of 8 percent in PEF was noted in one




 study (A26)  following a respiratory illness and the magnitude of changes




 due to  infections was large as compared to observed seasonal variations.




 Thus, in any air pollution-effect study even trivial illnesses such as




 the common cold must be recorded.




      Smoking,  not surprisingly, has an overwhelming influence on pulmo-




 nary function measurements (A21).  In the analysis of an air pollution-




 effect  study, particularly, in case of a cross-sectional study,  not only




 is it required  to treat smokers and nonsmokers as different groups,  but




 within  the smoking group, light or non-inhalers versus inhalers,.as well.




 as number of cigarettes per day should also be noted.




      Substantial diurnal variations (20-40 percent)  are present in some




 of the  pulmonary function measurements.  Lowest Gaw/Vtg as  well  as  lowest




 PEF in  a 24-hour period were recorded during early morning  (0300-0600




 hours)  in two separate studies (A11,A28).




      As discussed earlier, several studies have shown that ambient tem-




perature has a  strong influence on the pulmonary function (A16-A19).




Sometimes it is difficult to separate the effects of temperature and of




an air  pollutant  such as S02 (A49).   Both a decrease in ambient  tempe-




rature  or an increase in the SO2 concentration causes  a reduction in




pulmonary function.   Thus the separation of the effects of  the two  var-




iables  is especially difficult for winter months since as the temperature




decreases  the concentration of SO2 increases because of the increased

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                                                                  228




 combustion  of sulfur-containing fuels  for  space  heating.




       Finally, daily measurement of pulmonary  function  may  have  a




 "conditioned training"  effect which may distort any  trend analysis of




 the measurements (A27).   Thus, frequency of observations should  not  be




 greater than once a week in long term longitudinal studies.






 Population




       In a number of studies it was observed that some  individuals in




 almost all of the groups of subjects  that were studied  were hyperreactive




 to environmental changes.   Table A-XIII shows  the number of hyperreactive




 individuals and the total sample in various studies.  Although none  of




 the population samples  was truly random, it is interesting  to note that




 10-50 percent of any segment of population  including children, adults,




 and individuals with lung disease could be  hyperreactive to air  pollution




 and other environmental  factors.  These individuals, in general, may be




 expected to show stronger clinical symptoms in case  of  respiratory in-




 fection.




       Sensitivity to respiratory infections may not  be  the  only  factor




 responsible for hypersensitivity.  However  other  factors for distin-




 guishing  individuals hypersensitive to  air  pollution are not known.   In




 the Hackney et al.  (A9)  study,  one-third of the individuals who  were not




 thought to  be  sensitive  before the study showed hypersensitivity to  air




pollution.   Conversely,  not all of the  patients with chronic obstructive




pulmonary diseases were  hypersensitive  to air  pollution (A18).

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                                                                 229
       TABLE A-XIII.   PROPORTION OF HYPERREACTIVE POPULATIONS IN
          SELECT EXPERIMENTAL AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES.
Number of
Population Hyperreactive
Study Sample Individuals
Emerson (A18) 18 adults
with COPD1 7
Kagawa et_ al. (A20) 20 children 6
Lawther et al. (A26) 4 adults 1
Hackney ejt al. (A9) 13 adults 7
Bates e_t al. (A3) 11 adults 1
Hyperreactive
as Percent of
Total Sample
39
30
25
54
9
^Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

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                                                                  230





 ASSESSMENT OF HEALTH-EFFECT STUDIES






 Rationale




       The optimally  designed study  should include:  (a)  monitoring of




 all air pollutants permitted by the  "state-of-the-art",  including those




 pollutants which are  not  specifically being studied,  (b)  use  of  suffi-




 ciently sensitive tests for adequate characterization  of effects on




 pulmonary function, (c) elimination  of or  accounting for interference




 factors, and (d)  at least a part of  population  sample  consisting of




 hypersensitive persons.   These factors also permit a rational evaluation




 of the relative merit of  the methodologies used in past  studies  for  an




 assessment of present status of research and future needs.  In determining




 the relative merit of methodologies,  the degree of resolution and the




 quality of the results were considered to  be of significant importance.




 The rationale was that the results of air-pollution-effect  studies in the




 form of cause and effect  relationships would have good resolution  (i.e.,




 significant  differences in measurements for the control  values)  and  be




 of an  acceptable  quality  if cause, effect,  and  interference factors  are




 defined with sufficient detail and if a sensitive population  sample  is




 used.






 Approach




      For the  evaluation  of relative  merits of  methodologies  only  two  of




 the previously listed  factors:  characterization of air pollutants  and  use




of sensitive pulmonary function tests are  considered.  The  other two




 factors would provide  more  stringent  criteria but were not  used in this

-------
                                                                   231





 assessment.   The approach was to individually rank the two factors for




 each of the  studies based on the following criteria:




                                                               Ranking



 (a)   Characterization of air pollutants




      (i)     all air pollutants adequately monitored              1




      (ii)    study-pollutants adequately monitored, but




             inadequate characterization of other pollutants      2




      (iii)   inadequate characterization of the study




             pollutants                                           3




 (b)   Characterization of pulmonary function




      (i)     at least one PFT for characterization of smaller      1




             airways (Cst and Cdyn, MEFV curves,  MMEF,  MEF5Q,




             MEF^c,  FET,  CV,  etc.)  and one PFT for upper  airways




             (FEV, PEF,  Raw/Vtg,  etc.)




      (ii)    at least one PFT for smaller airways                 2




      (iii)   no PFT  for smaller airways                           3




      In ranking the degree  of resolution and reliability  of the  results




 for  a given  study,  the  lower of  two rankings  for characterization of air




 pollutants and pulmonary function  was  considered to  be the appropriate




 one.  The reason for selecting the lower ranking was that  since these




 studies evaluate the relationship  between two interdependent variables,




both  factors have to be  characterized  equally well.  For example,  in




Young et al.  (A3) the characterization of both air pollution and  lung




function meet  the criteria of rank one and, thus,  this study was  rated




to have a high degree of resolution and reliability  in its results.

-------
                                                                  232

 Conversely,  in the study with  experimental  exposure  to  ambient air  (All),

 even if characterization of pulmonary  function were  ranked as one, all

 air pollutants were not monitored  and  thus  this  study was rated to have

 a low degree of resolution and reliability  in the results.  A similar

 approach was used for  evaluating all the studies and totals for each

 group of studies are presented:


  TABLE A-XIV.   RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT OF THE HEALTH-EFFECT STUDIES.

                           Number   Degree  of resolution of and reliabi-
                             °f       lity  in the results of studies
                          studies
    Studies                          High	Intermediate         Low

 Experimental studies        97              1               1

 Epidemiologic  studies

   Group 1 -  Correlation      52              3               0

   Group 2 -  Cross-sectional  60              0               6

   Group 3 -  Longitudinal     30              1               2



 Results

       Table  A-XIV shows that most  of the experimental studies had adequate

monitoring of  air pollutants as well as of  pulmonary function.  Approxi-

mately half  of epidomiologic-correlation studies had potential for  a high

degree of resolution and reliability in results.  Most  of the cross-

sectipnal and  longitudinal epidemiologic studies had either a poor  charac-

terization (rank  3)  of air pollutants  or of pulmonary function and  conse-

quently most of these studies  were rated as having a low  degree of  reso-

lution and reliability.

-------
                                                                   233





       The above  observations  are  generally the  same  as one would  get




  from reviewing the  results  of different  studies which were discussed in




  preceding sections.   Experimental studies  have  yielded dose-response




  relationships for ozone.  This should not  imply that no additional research




  is necessary or  that  generalized  dose-response  curves can be constructed




  from available information, but it is clear that, with adequate charac-




  terization  of air pollution and the effects on  pulmonary function, expe-




  rimental studies have yielded conclusive and useful  results.  Similarly,




  epidemiological  correlation studies have shown  correlations between  the




  environmental and pulmonary function variables.  In  addition, one of the




  correlation studies has been  able to show  a tentative dose-response  curve




'  for NOo-  The results from'the last two  groups  of epidemiologic studies




  are less reliable and the conclusions are  less  clear.  The reason for




  this could  be inadequate characterization  of air pollution as well as of




  pulmonary function.




       The important conclusion that can  be drawn from this assessment is




  that the lack of epidemiological  dose-response  data  is not due to lack of




  studies, but is  due to a lack of  results or data with high degree of




  reliability.






  CONCLUSIONS






       Numerous studies of the health effects of air  pollution have used




 pulmonary function  tests for  the  characterization of effects on a human




 lung.   Enough data  for construction of generalized dose-response  curves




 are not available.  Thus the  tolerance factors  derived from the air

-------
                                                                  234


 quality standards still represent the best available approach for a

 relative assessment of the deleterious effects of simultaneous exposure


 to any combination of the six pollutants.

       Short term effects of ozone with exposure-duration of up to four
                                                                     V
 hours have been extensively studied.  Figures A-l and A-3 show dose-res-

 ponse relationships in terms of pulmonary  function measurements for

 ozone.  Short term effects of other pollutants as characterized by pul-

 monary function tests have received little study.  Epidemiologic studies

 involving cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis have not been very

 fruitful beyond showing a qualitative association between air pollution

 and decrease in the pulmonary function.

       Many factors inter fere with a plausible demonstration of the rela-

 tionship between air pollution and its effects.   Effects on pulmonary

 function of ambient temperature,  smoking,  and respiratory infections

 overwhelm the possible effects of air pollution.   A number of studies

 have identified some of the individuals  in the population sample as

 hyperreactive or hypersensitive to air pollution.


       The importance of adequate  characterization and monitoring of all

 the  air  pollutants and adequate characterization of pulmonary function


 cannot be overstressed.   For  any  future  study to be productive in terms

 of conclusive results,  the study  must monitor all the air pollutants, use

 sensitive tests  for  measurement of the pulmonary function, eliminate or


 account  for all  the  possible  interference  variables and finally, include


 in the population  sample  a group  of population who are  hypersensitive to


air pollution.

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                                                                  235



      In the future, experimental studies involving exposure of several



days to concentration of ozone and sulfur dioxide which are lower than



previously studied such as 0.1-0.3 ppm of ozone and 0.05-.5 ppm of sul-



fur dioxide and other pollutants with concentrations near the ambient



standards deserve a priority.  In the case of the air pollution-epidemio-



logical research, the studies aimed at quantifying long-term (5-15 years)
                              i


longitudinal effects of air pollutants are needed.



      Finally, at the risk of being repetitive, future epidemiologic



studies must take into account all of the factors discussed above.



Failure to do so in this area of complex research will diminish the value



of the results obtained.

-------
                              APPENDIX A

                          LIST OF REFERENCES
 Al.  Bouhuys, A.:   Breathing - Physiology,  Environment  and  Lung Disease.
        New York,  Grime and Stratton,  1974.

 A2.  Earle, R. H.:  Computer analysis  and interpretation of  studies  for
        pulmonary  function.  In Applied  Seminar on the Clinical Pathology
        of Respiratory Diseases,   ed.  F.  W.  Suderman, pp.  219-238.
        Philadelphia,  Institute of Clinical  Science, 1972.

 A3.  Young, W. A.,  Shaw,  D.  B.  and Bates, D. V.: Effect of  low concen-
        trations of  ozone  on pulmonary function in man.  J.  Appl. Physiol.
        19: 765-768, 1964.

 A4.  Hallett, W.  Y.:  Effect of ozone  and cigarette smoke  on lung function.
        Arch. Environ. Health.   10:  295-302, 1965.

 A5.  Bates, D. V.,  Bell,  G.  M.,  Burnham, C. D., Hazucha,  M. ,  Mantha,  J. ,
        Pengelly,  L. D., and Silverman>  F.:  Short-term effects of ozone
        on the lung.  J. Appl.  Physiol.  32:  176-181, 1972.

 A6.  Hazucha, M., Silverman, F.,  Parent, C., Field, S., Bates, D. V.:
        Pulmonary  function in man after  short-term exposure  to ozone.
        Arch. Environ. Health.  27:  183-188,  1973.

 A7-  Kagawa, J. and Toyama,  T.:  Effects  of  ozone and brief  exercise on
        specific airway conductance in man.  Arch. Environ.  Health.
        30: 36-39, 1975.

 AS.  Hackney, J.  D.,  Linn, W.  S.,  Mohler, J. G., Pedersen,  E. E. ,
        Breisacher,  P., and Russo,  A.: Experimental studies  on human
        health effects of  air pollutants  II  - Four-hour  exposure to  ozone
        alone and  in combination  with  other  pollutant gases.  Arch.
        Environ. Health. 30:  379-384,  1975.

 A9.   Hackney,  J. D.,  Linn, W.  S.,  Law,  D. C., Karuza, S.  K., Greenberg,
       H.,  Buckley, R. D., Pedersen, E.  E.: Experimental  studies on
       human health effects  of air pollutants III - Two-hour exposure
       to  ozone alone and  in combination with other pollutant gases.
       Arch. Environ.  Health.  30:  385-390,  1975.

A10. Anderson, I.,  Lundquist, G. R., Jensen, P. L. and  Proctor, D.  F.:
       Human response  to controlled levels  of sulfur dioxide. Arch.
       Environ. Health. 28:  31-39, 1974.

                                   236

-------
                                                                   237

 All.   Kerr,  H.  D .: Diurnal variation of respiratory function independent
         of air  quality.   Arch.  Environ. Health.  26: 144-152, 1973.

 A12.   Bates,  D.  V. :  Air  pollutants and the human lung:  The James Waring
         memorial lecture.  Am.  Rev .  Respir .  Pis . 105:  1-13, 1972.

 A13.   Bates,  D.  V.,  Bell, G. ,  Burnham, C. , Hazucha, M. , Mantha,  J. ,
         Pengelly, L. D. , Silverman,  F. : Problems in studies of human
         exposure to  air  pollutants.   Can.  Med. Assoc.  J.  103:  833-837,
 A14.   Hackney,  J.  D. ,  Linn,  W.  S.,  Buckley,  R.  D.,  Pedersen,  E.  E.,
         Karuza, S. K., Law,  D.  C.,  and Fischer, D.  A.:  Experimental
         studies on human health effects of air  pollutants I - Design
         considerations.   Arch.  Environ. Health. 30:  373-378,  1975.

 A15.   Private communication  with Dr.  H. D. Kerr,  June 3,  1975.

 A16.   Spodnik,  M.  J.,  Cushman,  G. D. , Kerr,  H.  D. ,  Elide, R.  W. , and
         Spicer, W. S.: Effects  of environment on respiratory  function -
         Weekly  studies on young male  adults.  Arch.  Environ.  Health.
         13:  243-254, 1966.

 A17.   Spicer, W. S., Reinke,  W. A., and Kerr, H.  D. :  Effects  of  environ-
         ment upon  respiratory function II. Daily studies  in patients
         with chronic obstructive lung disease.   Arch. Environ. Health.
         13:  753-762, 1966.

 A18.   Emerson,  P.  A. :  Air pollution,  atmospheric conditions and  chronic
         airways obstruction.  J.  Occup. Med.  15:  635^638, 1973.

 A19.   Kagawa, J. and Toyama,  T. :  Photochemical  air pollution  - Its
         effects on respiratory  function of elementary school  children.
         Arch. Environ.  Health.  30:  117-120,  1975.

 A20.   Kagawa, J. ,  Toyama,  T. , and Nakaza,  M. : Pulmonary function tests
         for  children exposed  to air pollution.   Presented at  the Ameri-
         can  Medical Association Air Pollution Medical Research Conference,
         San  Francisco, California,  1974.

A21.  Anderson,  D.  O.  and  Ferris, B.  G. : Air  pollution  levels and chronic
         respiratory disease.  Arch. Environ.  Health.  10:  301-311, 1965.

A22.  Lunn,  J.  E. ,  Knowelden, J., and Handyside, A. J.: Patterns of res-
        piratory illness in Sheffield infant  school children.  Brit. J.
        Prev. Soc.  Med. 21: 7-16, 1967.

-------
                                                                  238

 A23.  Shy, C. M.,  Creason,  J.  P.,  Pearlman,  M.  E.,  McClain,  K.  E., Benson,
         F. B., and Young, M. M.: The Chattanooga school  children  study -
         Effects of community exposure to nitrogen dioxide.   1.  Methods,
         description of pollutant exposure and results  of ventilatory
         function testing.   J.  Air  Pollut.  Control Assoc.  20:  540-545,
         1970.

 A24.  Shy, C. M.,  Hasselblad,  V.,  Burton,  R.  M.,  and Nelson,  C. J., and
         Cohen, A.  A.:  Air pollution effects  on  ventilatory  function of
         U.S.  school children.  Arch.  Environ. Health.  27: 124-128, 1973.

 A25.  Mostardi, R. A.  and Leonard,  D.:  Air pollution and cardiopulmonary
         functions.  Arch. Environ.  Health. 29:  325-328,  1974.

 A26.  Lawther, P.  J.,  Brooks,  A. G. F.,  Lord, P.  W., and Waller,  R. E.:
         Day-to-day changes  in  ventilatory function  in  relation  to the
         environment: Part 1 spirometric values.   Environ. Res.  7: 27-40,
         1974.

 A27.  Lawther, P.  J.,  Brooks,  A. G. F.,  Lord, P.  W., and Waller,  R. E.:
         Day-to-day changes  in  ventilatory function  in  relation  to the
         environment: Part II peak  expiratory flow values.  Environ. Res.
         7: 41-53,  1974.

 A28.  Lawther, P.  J.,  Brooks,  A. G. F.,  Lord, P.  W., and Waller,  R. E.:
         Day-to-day changes  in  ventilatory function  in  relation  to the
         Environment: Part III  frequent  measurements  of peak flow.
         Environ. Res.  8: 119-130,  1974.

 A29.  Ferris, B. G., Higgins,  I. T. T.,  Higgins,  M.  W.,  Peters, J. M.,
         VanGanse,  W. F. and Goldman,  M.  D.:  Chronic  nonspecific respi-
         ratory disease, Berlin, New Hampshire,  1961  to 1967 - A cross-
         sectional  study.  Am.  Rev.  Respir. Pis.  104: 232-244, 1971.

 A30.   Ferris,  B. G., Higgins,  I. T. T.,  Higgins,  M.  W.,  and Peters, J.
         M.: Chronic nonspecific respiratory  disease  in Berlin,  New
         Hampshire,  1961 to  1967 -  A follow-up study.   Am. Rev.  Respir.
         Pis.  107:  110-122,  1973.

A31.   Ferris,  B. G., Higgins,  I. T. T.,  Higgins,  M.  W.,  and Peters, J. M.:
         Sulfur oxides  and suspended particulates.  Arch.  Environ. Health.
         27: 179-182, 1973.

A32.   Environmental Protection Agency:  National primary  and secondary
         ambient air quality standards - Reference method for determina-
         tion  of nitrogen dioxide.   Fed.  Register. 38:  15174-15180,  1973.

A33.  American  Society for  Testing and  Materials: Instrumentation for
        Monitoring Air Quality.  STP 555.  Philadelphia,  1974.

-------
                                                                  239

A34.  Lee, R. E.,  and  Goranson,  S.:  National  air surveillance  cascade
        impactor network.   I.  Size distribution measurements of suspended
        particulate matter  in  air.   Environ.  Sci.  Technol.  6:  1019-1024,
        1972.

A35.  Lee, R. E.,  Goranson,  S. S., Enrione, R.  E.,  and  Morgan,  G. B.:
        National air surveillance cascade  impactor network.  II - Size
        distribution measurements of trace metal components.   Environ.
        Sci. Technol.  6:  1025-1030,  1972.

A36.  Macklem, P.  T.,  and Mead,  J. L.:  Resistance  of. central and periph-
        eral airways measured  by a retrograde catheter.  J. Appl. Physiol.
        22: 395-401, 1967.

A37.  Hogg, J. C., Macklem,  P. T.,   Thurlbeck,  W.  M. : Site  and nature of
        airway obstruction  in  chronic obstructive  lung  disease.  N. Engl.
        J. Med. 278:1355-1360, 1968.

A38.  Gelb, A. F., and MacAnally, B. J.: Early  detection of obstructive
        lung disease by analysis of  maximal expiratory  flow-volume curves.
        Chest. 64: 749-753,  1974.

A39.  Bouhuys, A.: Flow-rate measurement in small  airway disease.  Arch.
        Environ. Health.  26: 340, 1973.

A40.  Zapletal, A., Jech, J.,  Paul,  T., and Samanek, M.: Pulmonary function
        studies in children  living in an air  polluted area.  Am. Rev.
        Respir. Pis. 107: 400-409, 1973.

A41.  Allen, G. W. and Sabin,  S.: Comparison  of direct  and  indirect
        measurement  of airway resistance: A  critical analysis  of the
        forced vital capacity  curve.  Am.  Rev.  Respir.  Pis. 104: 61-71,
        1971.

A42.  McFadden, Jr., E. R. and Linden,  P.  A.: A reduction in maximum mid-
        expiratory flow rate - A spirographic manisfestation of small
        airway disease.   Am. J.  Med. 52: 725^-737,  1972.

A43.  Cochrane, G. M., Prieto, F. , Hickey, B,,  Benatar, S.  R. and Clark,
        T. J. H.: Early diagnosis of airways  obstruction.  Thorax. 29:
        389-393, 1974.

A44.  McCarthy, D. S., Spencer,  R.,  Greene, R.  and  Milic-Emili,  J.:
        Measurement of "closing  volume" as simple and sensitive test
        for early detection  of small airway disease.  Am. J. Med.  52:
        747-753, 1972.

-------
                                                                  240

A45.  Buist, A. S.: Clinical significance of pulmonary function tests -
        Early detection of airways obstruction by the closing volume
        technique.  Chest.  64: 495-499, 1973.

A46.  Cochrane, G. M., Benatar, S. R., Davis, J., Collins, J. V., and
        Clark, T. J. H.: Correlation between tests of small airway
        function.  Thorax.  29: 172-178, 1974.

A47.  Frank, R.: Health effects of sulfur oxides - Discussion.  J. Occup.
        Med. 10: 512-515, 1968.
        i

A48.  Bates, D. V.: Health effects of oxidants - Discussion.  J. Occup.
        Med. 10: 480-484, 1968.

A49.  Carnow, B. W. and Namekata, T.: Impact of multiple pollutants on
        emergency room admissions: II Analysis for the entire study period.
        Project No. 10.033. Chicago, Illinois:  Illinois Institute of
        Environmental Quality, 1975.

-------
          APPENDIX B
LISTING OF THE COMPUTER PROGRAM
                 241

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~»CPTTUNS IK  EFFECT"?   KCTEHM. 1 D.ESCCJ C. SDUWCE .NULI S I .MJCtt-K.LUAL!.NCWAV1*NCTEST'
 • OPTIONS IN  EFFECT*   NAMt  =  OATAR    .  LINEChlT  »        SO
 • STATISTICS*     SOURCE STATEMENTS -        1Ct.PROGRAM  SIZt =      4336
 • STATISTICS*   NO DIAGNOSTICS  G6NERATE:D
                                                                                                                                                       D
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                                                                                                                                                   03

-------
FOHTHAN IV Gl
0001
0003
OOO4
. OOUb
0006
0007
OOUc)
OJ09
OOIO
O011
0013
OOIO
0015
oo ie
001 a
0019
00*0
0021
0022
0023
UUJ .hhla> .B1NU. IHLI , bl GUT ,S« IGMi
COMMON /SO/ ISN« 1 1 ) .NST(ll) .KS^l 1 l>
CCMMCN /Al/ NC.IC12200)
(.LVMLN /Lbl-/ 1U11 1 1 I .XI ll».Yl I 1 ItPdPI 11 1 .AREAC1 1 J . ICUl 11 .21 .
1 CISK 11,11 )
DC 5 1 = 1 . NC
10
IS
5
i ^ A j • u i « r,t_ i i>u i u i o •
DIST{ I,J)=ABS(SU«1 « A8S(X( I >-X( J ) ) )*»2 . •KABSCY'l U-YJJ)) »»»£.> •
DISK J.I |=U1ST( 1. J)
irij .» *.2S9-.O45t
CONTINUE
C TABLE THREE
C» *»»**»******»• mt»* *»**»*»***»»«*»*******+*«» *4 »*•*»*»*»»»*»***«»««***
*SIT£ (6.4V9)
20
9V9
10CO
10O1
EFFECT*
QC. 20 1 = 1.11
kPlTL(b.lOOl) 1CO( I . 1 ) . 1CJ( I .2) . (DISK J , J) . J=l . 1 1 )
f-'CRMAT («!•.////////. 5X. 'DISTANCES aETMtfiN COUNTY CENTERS. IN MI
FCRMATC •. 3(/> . 17X. i 1(A«.3X)//)
FC^KATC • ,5X ,2A4 , 1 1P7. !///»
NCfeRM. ID. EBCDIC. SOURCE .NOLI 5T, NOOtCK .LU AQ .NGMAP.NGTEST
*STATIbTICi»
*STA1ISTICS*
  SOGHCE
NO DIAGNOSTICS  GENERATED
                                                  24.PKOGRAM  Sift
                                                                            1 120
                                                                                                                                                          KJ

-------
COSTBAN  IV  GJ
                               2.0                  t SOD

                               FI.NCT1CN  IS.If.l I.V.NI
DATt = 1*
                            15/43/25
 OOOJ
 U004
 00 O5
                       C*»****»******»**»***»«*****«********»+*»*********«*****»****»*»»s»«**»*
                       c
                       C	T!-C  f-JNCTIUN  ijOU aEr-RNS  A,<1  UUECcS  ^UMl•.tR  WHICH  IS  IhE ELEMENT
                                          "                                                              IS  TO  ( I «K.h
                               1  -   CCCSESPCNOiNG  TC  Tl-E  CJwNTY NOMaEfi
                               M  -   CCrt^£j?CNJ3  TC PCLLCTANT  tNOEX
                       C*»»»»***»
                       C
                                                                                       V****** fr* + »****#»
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                                                  {M-!J*7
               IN  EXPECT*   Nr.TErt,v.,lC,caCCIC.SOUf.(.t ,NOL 1ST, NOCECK.LO Ai>«NQWAP. NOTEST
   4CSTIONS  IN  rt-TECT*   NAME  =  I SOD      .  LINECM  =         iO
 ~SST"«TT"5T rCHTv	' 'S^-^HCt  blAlhMcNTb =	S. PROGRAM  Slit  =	»«e	
   *STATJSTICS*   NO  I.IAGNCST1CS  GE
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-------
FUSTKAN IV  Gl   RELEASE 2.0
                                                 MASSE
                                                                       OATii - 75312
                                                                                                  iS/«J/2S
OOO1
ouui <> (i
OC21
0022
OO.S3
OO26
OO27
SI.BKCUTINE MASSH
CCMMck /SO/ ISNJ1 t J.NST III) .NS21 III
CCMMCN /dlG/ SQUMCEl IdCCU) ,MA(bt 1.4J
COWMCN /CPT/ JOtJOP.CSC.TF(5» ,FFJ E ) . « INO, THfiT , SI OMV. S IGM2
CCMMCN /VAL/ EMSSC2300 ) .P INO ( 230O ) .HCPbXP (^3OO )
DIMENSIONS SUMNC 11 ) .SUHK(2JOO)
OC 5 I-l . 1 1
3 aunril 1 J-'u
liTOT = 0
DC 10 1=1,11
IS=iSMl )
CO IS J=l "iS
INO={SCD< i. J.I )
IO1=NAWO< I .J) 	 	
1 * SOURCEi INOK)
15 Sk-MM I )-SUMN« I MSUWKIfOU
1C viIOT = GTDT » SUMN(l)
JF( iS .tii. O> liD TO 20
or, ^5 j=i,iS
25 EMSbllOl )-SUP-K( 101 )/CTOT*lOO.
2O CONTINUE
HETURN
  *OPTIONS
—rCP I 1 CNS  1 '1 t
  •STATISTiCS*
  TSFATISTICS*
               IN  EFFECT*
                              NGTEhM. 10. ^UCJIC. SUb HCc .liOLlSr. NOOhCK. LOAD. NCKAP. NOTES T
                        SOUHCE STATEMENTS =
                     NO DIAGNOSTICS  vlf
                                                                                  tooa«
                                                                                                                                                                      171

-------
FORTRAN iv  GI   HEL=ASE n.o               NAKQ                CATE =  ? = ji2          15/43/25
                                   t*4«»1*»**t*»»********************************************
                   C
                  _c	I>L  FUNCTION  NAML) sETysf.:; AN  iNTECca NUMBER >IHICM  JS Ti-e ELEMENT
                   C      A^5t>KC5^ Or A  I  — u I MtNS ICNMU  AK t< A^? V_U'*** **************************
                   c
 OO3?	CCCMCN /SO/  ISN< I 1 ) >NST l 1 1 ) >NS2( I i I
"TTO0j                     f^Wtr=S"5ZTTT—*  U-l )	
 000«                     fiETUHN
 0005                     fcNO
  • OPTIONS  IN EFFECT*  NCTEH «« !O .EoCi/I C i iUL,BC= ..NuH j 7 , NGt. cCK .LDAa.NQMAP.NOTEST
  VLPTICNS  IN El-FECT*  NAt-c  = Is A.MO     . ..iNcCNi  =        SO
  • STATISTICS*     SOURCE STATcMEsfS  -=          i.PHUO-iAM  Siia =       3*6
  ~*SI Al 1 b>l ICi*	PT«J DIA'oNCSTlCS GENdK/Tia	
                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                    IJ1
                                                                                                                                                    NJ

-------
FUKTRAN  IV GI   SELEASE 2.0

_QOOl                     •SliiNL'tT 1\E
                                             PINDEX
                                                                  DATE
                                                                          7S3I2
                                                                                          SS/*3/25
OC03
•JOO*
UUUtt
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CI.MMCN /VAL/ IIMSS (2.100 ) .P INDI 2300 > .PCr'gxp; *joo>
(.CXM'JN /l.tr/ 10i(l 1} .XI Hi ,Y< 11 )>FCPt 1 I) . A;«ei»(l I ) . I Cu< 1 I . 2 J ,
1 OIST( 11 .1 1)
' CCVttcN /SO/ ! 5M ( 1 1 > « N ST < 1 1 1 iNS2< 1 1 1 	 	 	 	 • 	 — 	 	 - "•
CCMMON /PtNOii/ PSOUCEC861) >PPM( 361) , PiOX(B61 i .PNOXC861 ) . PCCUS6 1 >•
1 PMC ( 6cl )
CCfJMGM /UPT/ JOfQP. OSC, TF(S).FFCS). WIND. ThiiT.SIOMY . SIGMi
1 • J uo
CCK.VCN /a I.",/ SQURCEC 160CO) .MX(dei.H)
CI^'fc^SlC^ SPINKIH
1 SPIN I 11=0
DC 3 =l.aol
PPM( I -0 .
PNOXI )=.0.
Pl-Cil =ol »
"3 H '^ '.JVJ I. r_ ( 1 ) — U
DO 10 1=1 .NC
IS=iSM I 1
IF! IS .i'3 • 0) GO TO 10
1CEX= !S.JO( I , J,l >
1NO=NAMO ( 1 . J)
1DD=1C( [NO)
	 TOW 1 1 f ri ju t*f*"f~n*i^'J V~*~H^ -f--t— t 	
                                                1* i
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 v> 0.33

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 f| ^ .' 1>
 Od jo
 o<; >r

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 O-J46
                            PFM( !Oi;)=lFM  + PPM11CU)
                            PSOX ', ICili =TST,X +  MSOX((CCI
                        	PTcr~<-rrraT=—t N j i -T--Firs-x 11 c o >	
                            PCCX i'"a)-tcu  » PCCCICO)
                            PhCt IKCI-THC  t PhC (K; i < ! ) =S"=IM I I ) >SOOACE(IOEX»6)
                        	6T-C.TT5.P INl-t-f-t	
                         10  CCNT tMjfc
                            Ctt ^O  1*1,  NC  .
                            IS=ISNtI)
                            ift ra—.LC.  o) cc--
                           CC
                                   j=i. is
                                  VA>4D( I • J)
                            IN?*ISCO(I.J.7)
                        	*M*rpf loex ) = 3OUrtCt:-<-HvPl<'OT*10e-»	
                            ict>= inc icexi
                        as  PSOUCEC uol=-psouce < 1001 +P INCI< IOEX I
                        20  CCM ^Uif
                           -Or—St*—ttr^r-l .UOI
                           pr- »( ion I = tiX( !UOt=lPSCX( IOO)»1UC.)/C
                           PNOX( ico ) = IPNCX( i on M loo, i/r.t
                          -i»t^-fiup>-(pgqrt'OOi«
-------
OO57
OOS8
0059
                            tUKN
•CPTIdNS  IN  r.i=F£CT«   NCT ER« . I O .EaCCI C. SOURCE .NUU I ST.NODECK.LOAO.iNCMAP. NCTEST
»OPTlGiiS  IN  EFFECT*  _^A*£  ; J* ' NOtX  .  LIMfCNT =	SO


•STATISTICS*  NO  OIAGNOSTICS  GENERATED
                                                                 SI/E
                                                                             "1414
                                                                                                                                                                 D
                                                                                                                                                           "To 2

-------
FOHTRAN IV Gl-
•ooot
0003
OOO't
OCOS
C006
0007
uuuu
OO09
001O
UU 1 1
0012
O014
OUlb
0016
cote
OO19
0020
l^'J £. I
0022
0023
0025
0020
0027
OO2V
O03O
0031
UU J£
0033
0036
OOJ7
003S
06 40
OO41
0042
OO43
0044
0046
0047
RELEASE 2.0 HI TEA DATE = 75312 15/43/25
SLOftCUTINE: RITEA
ccvyi-N '*\f rx. . 1D12JOOI 	 	 ' 	 — 	 — 	 ~ 	 " 	 ~~ 	
COWMCN VUIG/ iJUKCtl loOCOl .MM661 .» >
ccvacik /SO/ ISN( 1 1 ) .r.ST ( 1 1> .NS2( I i )
CCKMON /LtrV 1G1 ( 1 1 ) .X ( 1 1 ) .Y( 1 1 ) ,FOP( 1 1 ).AREA{ 1 1 j > 1CO{ 1 1 . 2 ) .
CCVVCN XCS/ CCNS(£60.4)
COMMON /PlMOE/ PiCUCeide 1 ) .PPM! Sol ) . PSUX (ttbl ) , PNOXI 861 ) . PCO(861 ).
1 Pt-C(ttl)
COfMCN /I"f/ OCQNU1 .11 ) .CCONd 1 ) ,EXPC(23OO) .EXPAd 1 )
CCMMCN /CPT/ JUBOP.OSC. JF(S>.FF(S) .WlND.TheT.SIGMV.SIGMZ
DIMENSION ADUPt 1OOO) .AOUFU 1OOO > - USE
CO 10 1 =1,1)00
ADUC1 < I )=0
AUUC2( I )-O
CC »9 M^-1.4
ISf ISM 1 1
IT( li .E.Q, O) GO TO 16
Cu ^0 J=l , IS
ACUf  , 12 X , 'TABLE XI. EKISSICNS A NO KESLLTS OF MASS I
INOEX. F-iNDC-X ANO POPEX FOR EACH CF T HE' . / .2JX. * SOCRCE-C ATEOOR IES 'I
30O1 WKF.TC ie.*OOO>
4OOO FCKKAT <• • .13X. 'SOljSCE TOTAL PM SO2
I NOX CO HC« ./,12X.«CATE&OBY« ,//)
OC 2? 1=2.661






3
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0049
0050
O 0 "j \ •
OOt.2
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0057
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OOC3
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0076
0077
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0093
0094
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01 00
Ol 01
0102
	 010J 	
0104
DIVlrj = SPM(I) + SSUX»SHCt It
iF(oivio .ea. o .AND. ACUPC i ) .Eo. o J GO TO 22
HAT I UP=SPM< 1 i/Dl V1D
RAT[UN=SNOXi I )/OI VIC
RAT 1CC=SC(]( I I/O IV ID
rtAT ILH-ShC( I I/O IVID
cPKil. At ICP+ADoP( 1 J 	 --
tSCX^KAT 1 OS*ACUP{ I >
fcNOX=HAT I CK*ADOPI 1 j
ECO=KAT1CC*AOI/P(I !
IFtSSKl .NE. 1 i AOUP2 ( I I
22 CONTINUE
5000 FCKMAT (• • , 1 oX . I 3 , 2 X . • EM I S3 1 CNS • ,F I I . 0^5F 1 o. O/22Xi • MASS _ I NDEX •.
»RI JE ( t ,St }
£6 FCki^AT (1H1. " M.'M MASS INDEX PINO6X PI/M POP6X
I PO/P1 • )
IF (ACUP(I) «LE. O.) GO TO 300
PMK=AOl,P2< I >/ADUPl ( I )
P1NMK = ADUP1 ( I ) /ACUHIi
1006 FOt-MAT ( '0' .5X. 15.SF10.3)
3OO CCNT INUE
»R1TE|6.IOI2). .ADUP2. 3x . D If rCBCUCCS" //")
[)U J 1 1=1. 10OO
IF(Al)UP2(I> .EO. 0) GO TC 31
C IK'» = AD'JF ( I )-AL>UP2( 1 )
O1F6=ADUP( I 1-ADUP1 ( 1 )
DIP l=AbS< OIF4 )/AOUP2< I 1 »100.'
01F£-At»S(UIK5 I/ADUP2 ( I 1*100.
SLD1=SUD1+OIK1
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31 v'CNTlNUt
10.1,3 FCRJ'»T(''l°!5X.'THc SCW OF OIF l-6'/^J
- -T> ••till-in tin.^ OliriT T.I in A '"lirifiullinrj 	
___ 	 ftH'i Tfc.(tr;-fOl 1 ) SUO1 « SLD2 «2UOJ*5UD4 » jUO j • JUU'J
1011 FORMAT (' • ,5x,6f=l0.2)
CO TC 99
93 NNNNN=3
IM JOB .EC. 2) GO TO £00






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01 05
O106
0107
Cii Ott
0109
01 10
0111
U 1 1 «£
0113
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0117
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0159
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35 iChT ( I )=AUUM( I )
I'll iai-i- -• i i t sin i .naUt-T, lui}j) 	 — 	 ..,,.,
CO 40 l=l,10JO
I I=MSChT< I )
IF(ADUPCIt) .fcO. 0) CO TO 40
1 AOUP( I I ).AOUPi«l I I .AOL-F2( I I »
1005 FCHMAT( «0' .SX. I E .5X , 4 < 2X , 13. 2X ) . 3F 1 0. 2 .3 1 5 . 2F 1 0 .2 )
40 CONTINUE
CO 45 1=1 . 1000
45 SORT ( 1 )=ADUP1< I)
CALL SCFiTlTCSORT.MS3RT.10OO)
I 1=MSCRT( I )
IF(ADUPKII) .EQ. 0) GO TO SO
WRITE (6. 1005) I l.(MX(I I.NM).NM-1,4).
1 AUUPIIL). AOUP1 1 1 1 J . ACUP2 ( I I t 	 	 	 — • 	 	
SO CONTINUE
99 KNNNN-3
C
!_• 1 AULt SiA 	 	 - 	 	 — 	 	 '" '' — ' — '
r« »*»»*<»«<»*«»«»«»*»»»»**»»***********»*»**»»*«*****»»«**»«****««»*«**
fcCOl CONTINUE
SSKl=l
1014 FC^MAT <*1'.11C/1> SX. 'T/-8LE XH. CHIACGO *OCR SCOPCE-CATEGOR1 ES
1 IM THE DECREASING CHOER OF POPEX.".//)
»M ITEI6. 1015 )
52 SPO( I )=0
Ct 51 1=1 .100O
CALL SC«TIT(SCRT,MSOfiT,lOOO>
CO 5b 1-1.1000
1 I = MSCRT( I )
'CAUUP2tiIl .KG. 0) GO TO Jb _ . 	 	 	
A =AL"UE 1 ( i >
A1=AUUH1 (II)
A2=ADUF2C 11)
It-' (Al.GE. AA)K1=1
IF IA2.CE. AAIK2=»
IF (A .GE . Lib .AND. A .LT . AA) K =2
1PJA1 Gl- OO AfjO PI LT AA ) Itl"""
irCAzlcI. Ob .AND. A2.LT. AA> KZ=2
IF (A .CE. CC .AND. A .LT.BBJ K«3
IF (Al .CE. CC .AND. Al .LT.tB) Kl=3
IF (A .Ot. DO .AND. A .LT . CC) K=4
IF (Al.GE. DO .»NC. Al .LT . CC) Kl=
-------
01 60
• (JIM
Ol 62
OloJ
Olii-t
016ti
OlOO
0167
0168
0169
Ol 70
0171
01 72
01 73
01 74
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0177
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Ol 81
0182
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0192
019J
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0196
0197
01 -
0216
0217
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1021
1O20
211
203
100
101

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110






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	 T20
tu
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If= (SSM .M*; JS > CC ti 211
SSK!=1
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•RltC (6.1020)
FCR«AI ('I*. 111/). cX. 'TABLE XII. CONT INUEO. •// )
•wire (c.ioib) . • • -
SSK1= SSKl+1
• Rut (e. 1007) i i,(ccA5( n.J) ,j=i .•;) .AOUPI 1 1) .AOUPI ( 1 1) .
1 ADUP21 I 1) . K.K1 .K2
ci_N;ru- Kl— 2
1F(A .Gfc. CC .ANO. A .LT. dd) K=3
IF(A1 .uE. CC .ANC. Al .LT.bb) Kl=3
IF(A .GE. DO .AND. f .LT. CC) «-t
II- 1 A i .Oc« DU .A!SC. Al .LI. CC) Kl-J.
IF I.ADUP2C 1) .DI .OJF.AOD( I ),K.K1
FCRMATC •.5X.I5.F12.5.2FJ0.2.F12.5.2I10J
CLNTINUE
NAD=0
DO 60 1=1 .10OO
1FCAODM-) .NE. 0) NAC=NAC+1
CLNT iNOt
S1=SAC/NAD

,


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   §220                         S2=SDI/NAD
   2<2t                         **ITE  (o.glOl  J06UP.S1 .S2.rOTC.TTC
 02iJiJ                  £10   FCSKAT  ("I'l          5X.'JOdOP=«.  I3t«          AVG  PCT  O IFF=« .F10 .3.
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                            •  2 ChNG  feNK  J-2  OR  2-l=",I3)
 0223                   1007 FCkMAT  (<  • . 1 JX . I 3.2X .8 A4 . A J.3G 1 0 .2. 3X. J I 5 1
                         IOIS FCKMAT  < • 0« . 6»X , • 1 • . / . 1 1 X ,   • SOURCE   SUURCE-CATbGGMY  NAMt",J6X,
                              240X.
                              3'Ml           PI           PO                 MI    •=!    PO'/>
 O22S                   2OO  JOB=I
 0227                        END
                 N kl-rtCT*	^UlknM.l
   •OPTIONS  IN EFFECT*    NAME =  SITEA     • LINECNT =          EO
   •STATISTICS*      SOURCE STATEMENTS  =         227.PRUCHAM  SI2E =      315*4
   »STATISTICS*NO OIA&NCSTICS GENERATED
                                                                                                                                                                                  NJ
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-------
FOKTHAN iv Gi
0001


OOOZ
O003
0004
0005
OC06
OOO J

0003
000<<
0010
001 1
OCI2
OO 13
OO14
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0016
0017
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. 0019
0020
OC21
0022
0023

0020
0027
0028
OOJO
0031
OOJ2
0034

RELEASE
C
C****
C
C
C
C
C****
C


C
C
C
I
100
C
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C
2
101
t:
C
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C
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	 51
C
C
	 C 	
2-0 SENSE DATE = 75312 15/43/2b
Sl.Ra,1llTIKF SFN«,F
»**»*******«*«»*»«**»*«*«»«***»» t««******v* ************************
Tt-IS SUBFOoriNE CcFEhMINES MO* SENSITIVE THE MODEL IS TO
VAKiACLb i.nAMjc.ij 	
*»»**»***»********»*»»»**»»***»* »*»*•«*»«»****»*»»«***********»*»»»
I.LMMLS / bO/ 1 bM 1 1 ) iNST ( t 1 ) .IVS£ ( 1 1 ) -• • • 	
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CCVMON /CRT/ jabOP.DSC, TF15) .FF(S) . * INO. THtT . SI GMY ,S I GMZ
I . JU'J
CI-ECK=0

(.HtCKb U^C &£zl\d i 1 1 V i 1 T
CSC=OSC»J .5
JJ=1
OGC=( 1/3.)*DSC
GC TO 1O
TF<5) = FF{4)/25.
JJ=2
^} U 1 U i U
TF( 1 J=0
TF(2)=l
GO TC 10
CHECKS JOBOP 3-6
KK=JC£>GP-2
1MK.K .tU. 4) bU tU SO
FF(KK)=1 .5»FFtKK)
TF-tKK )=FF < 4.J./FF 
-------
OO36
0037
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20
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li. rc To ••' • • 	 •-•
SIGMA ₯ SENSITIVllY
JJ=5
GO TO 10
bu i u i u
SIGMA 2 SENSITIVITY
b IbXiai.s
JJ=6
liQ TO 10
SIGK2=.5
tu I l. 10
PCLLUTI3.M HEIGHT SENSITIVITY
UL £ 1 1-1 . 1 1 ' .
IK IS lEC. 0) GO TO 21
DO <;= j=i.is
i I\LJ- i SOU vI.J.C> .' ' " 	 	 ' 	 . . ,- .. - 	
SvWRCEt INO)=SOUHCE< INOi *I.S
JJ-7
DC 30 1=1.11
IS-1SN( I )
IFIIS .EQ. 0) OK TO 30
lCEX=NA«tJ( I. J)
IKD=[ SCO! I.J.fc)
ir < I L'( ICtX ) .OK. 821) GC TO 31
CO TC- 35
5ClMC£( INOJ = SCURCE< INC) *l/3.
CCNT I Nut
CALL DISTAN
CALL PINOt-X
CALL MASSE
CALL SUMO IS
CALL RITE A
IF (CHECK .EQ. II GO TO 2O
GC"*TO Jioo.xct . 102. iC3.io«.ios,ioe>.jj
RETURN
END
*OPrlONSTAT15TICa

•STATISTICS*
                  NO  DIAGNOSTICS  OENERATEO
 to
.cn

-------
FORTRAN IV Gl
0001


0002
0003
OO04
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0007
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0009
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0012
13
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0016
001 7
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*CPT IONS IN
•OPTIONS IN
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•STATISTICS*
RELEASE 2.0 SCRTIT . DATE = 75312 IS/43/25
	 SiilHOUIINt SGHTITISOKT.MSPHT.NII
c**»*****»«*»*»«**4»»**»»*»*l»*J*.**»***»»»**+»»»» ++*****»4***** **»•*-*•*•*
c
C SORTING SLdKQCTlNE
C
C ti-Ia IS A CbCHcAin.SiG GRCEtt 3UBBLE i>UK 1 	
C IT LLAVES THE AMHAY TU EE SURTtd IN ITS ORIGINAL OHOtA
C IT LEAVES Tht ) GO TU 20
3U=Si:« 14 -i 1
SCRU I ) = SCRT«NJ
:»CRT(N) = SU
MX=MSCRT< I I
KiUHT I 1 > = VtsuKl IMI
MSOMT (M=MX
20 CONTINUE
16 CCNTINLiE
KETUKN
END
EFFECT* NAME = SORTIT . LINfcCNT = SO
SOURCE STATEMENTS = IS. PROGRAM Sl££ * £24
NC DIAGNOSTICS GENERATED
OOOOOOOO
•-OoootrOTtr 	 —
00000020
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-------
FGuTRAN IV Gl
com
O002
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1 . oO3
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uC 10 J=l .NC
DC Ic 1=1 .SC
15 CCON1 J)=CCCN( J) + BCCNC
10 SoMcXP=S^M£XP * EXPA(J)
DC ?.Q 1=1 .NC
IS=1SM 1 )
DATE = 75312 15/43/25
I.CCONU 1 ).£XPC(2300).EXPA( 11 )
11) ,Y< 11 ) , PUPlll ) .AKiiAd 1).ICQ(11.2).
Ill) .NS2C 11)
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£5 POPEXPINA)=(EXPClNA)/SUHeXP) * 1OO.
ftRiTE (6.6CI
ION MATRIX*.///)
SX.'PINOcX COHRECTfcD POLLUTION CONCtNTKATI
                       5O HJhHATll 1 (SX.A4) . •    TO1AL  FDR CCL.NTV")
                           CO 30  J=1.NC
                      30   Af\lTF  (e.AQ)  (tICCNd . J) .1 = 1 .NO .CCON(J), 1CC( J.I)
RETURN
6 NO
x.-rrEvr2TT
TO-
•nrr
TX
«A») 	 • 	
• OPTIONS  IN  EFFECT*   NOTERC . I 0 .Ei3CO 1C. SOURCE .NOL 1ST,NOOECK.LOAD.NOMAP.NOTEST
•UPT1CNS  IN  EFFECT*   NAME  =  SUMDIS   .  L1NECNT =          £0
• STATISTICS*     SOURCE  STATEMENTS  =         29.PROGRAM  SIZE  =      1060
»!>rAI I5T1C5*	'MO Ol«l»NCSrlCS  tSC^t^^ATEO	


•STATISTICS*  NO DIAGNOSTICS  THIS  STEP
                                                                                                                                                                         IO

                                                                                                                                                                         U>

-------
                APPENDIX C
LISTING OF THE SOURCE-CATEGORY NUMBERS AND THE
     SOURCE CLASSIFICATION CODES  (SCC)
                      2 04

-------
NO.
            sec
                       SOCECB CIASSIFICATIOS COPE   (SCC1 CATEGOM NAMES
1
a
3
*
5
b
7
H
9
1O
11
12
13
14
IS
16
17
la
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
2T
28
29
30
1 Ol OOl 01 EXTCOUe
1 01 001 02 EXTCOHB
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
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1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
i
1
I
1
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01 001
01 001
01 001
01 001
01 OOl
01 002
Ol OO2
01 O02
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01 002
01 002
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01 OO2
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01 003
01 003
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01 OO3
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03 tXTCUMB
04 EXTCOM3
05 EXTCOMB
06 EXTCOM3
99 EXTCOMB
01 EXTCOMB
02 EXTCOMB
03 EXTCOMB
04 EXTCOMb
05 EXTCOMB
06 EXTCOMB
07 EXTCOM6
08 EXTCOMfa
09 EXTCOMd
10 EXTCOM9
11 EXTCOMB
12 EXTCOMS
99 tXTCOMS
01 EXTCOMb
O2 EXTCOMB
03 EXTCQM&
04 EXTCOMB
05 EXTCOMd
06 EXTCOMb
O7 EXTCGM8
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09 EXTCOMfa
1O EXTCOMb
BOILER
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/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECT HI C
/ELECTI'IC
/ELECTS 1C
/ELECTRI C
/ELECTHIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELE<-TRIC
/ELECTRI C
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTKI C
/ELECTHIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTHIC
/ELECTRIC
/ELECTRIC
/tLECTHIC
/ELECTRIC
OC.NLAATN/ ANTHRACITE
GENERATN/ ANTHRACITE
G&NERATN/AKIIHKACITE
GsilMERATN/ANTHHACITE
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GtNER A TN/ ANTHRACITE
GENERA TN/ ANTHRACITE
GENLRATN/b I TuM I NOUS
GENER AT N/d I TUM i NUUS
OcNERATN/t> I TUM i NOUS
GEMtRATN/b I TUMI NOUS
GENERA T N/a I TUM I NOUS
GENERATN/dt TUMI NOUS
GENtH ATN/B I TuM I NUUS
GtNEP. AT N/d 1 TUM I NUUS
GENERA TN/B I TUM I NOUS
GcNtHA TN/dlTuMl NOUS
GENER ATN/B I TUM 1 NUUS
GENERA TN/t) 1 TUM 1 NOUS
GENERAT N/B 1 1 UM I NOUS
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/GlUUMMbTU FULVIZO
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/TONS
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-------
31
32-
33
34
35
36
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40
41
42
43
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45
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49
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59
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GLNERATN/N4TUKAL GAS
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GENERA TN/PROCES^ GAS
GENfHAlN/CUKE
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/TUNS Buk'^bd
/TUNS bUPNfcO
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/TONS dUHNE-D
/IONS BURNED
KJ

-------
62
63
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67
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69
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71
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76
77
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/LlOMMeTU/Hh STKk
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219
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232
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3 01 021 01 INDUSTRIAL PRUCES/CHEM 1 CAL MFC
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-------
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282
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285
286
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288
284
290
291
292
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295
296
297
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302
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305
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313
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329
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PROCES/CHEMICAL MFG
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-------
341
342
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3*6
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350
351
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355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
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367
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370
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3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
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3
3
3
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02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
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02
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372     3 02 010  99 INDUSTRIAL  PROLES/FOOD/AGRICULTURAL/FENMCNfATN-WHl SKY/ OTH^R/NOT CLASFD  /GALLONS  PRODUCT
373
374
375 -
376
377
378
379
330
381
382
383
384
305
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
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• 395
396
397
398 -
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PROCES/FOOD/AGRICULTUkAL/FliH MtAL /
PROCEb/FOUD/AGRlCULTURAL/MEAT SMuKINij /
PHCJCtb/FUOD/AGHICULTUhAL/sTARCH MFG /
PROCtS/FQOO/AGRlCULTURAL/SOGAR CAN6 PRUCfcb/
PRuCES/FCJOO/MSRlCULTuKAL/SUGAR LANE PKUCtS/
PRUCES/FOOD/AGRICULTUfi AL/SUGAR bfcET PROCdj/
PHOCES/FOOD/AGHlCULTURAL/bUGAK UELT PROCES/
PROCeS/FOOD/AGRl CULTURAL/PEANUT HHOCLSblNG/
PRUCES/FOOD/AGRICULTUKAL/PrlANUT PROCtSblNu/
PRGCES/FOOO/AGRlCULrURAL/CANOY/CONFELTNRY /
PROCEb/FOOD/AGHICOLIURAL/OAIRY PRODUCTS /
PRUCtS>/FOOD/AGRlCULTURAL/O«lRY PRODUCTS /
PROCES/FOOD/AGRICULTURAL/OTHER/NCI1 CLAbIKO/
PHUCtS/FOOD/AGHlCOLTuhAL/OI HER/NOT CLAS1FO/
PROCES/PR 1MARY
PROCES/PR IMAKY
PHuCES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PR1MARY
PftUCES/PRI MARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCEb/PRIMAUV
PROCES/PR IMARY
PROCtS/PRIMARY
PROCES/PH IMARY
PBOCfcS/PRIMARV
PKUCES/PRlMAHtr
METALS
MET AL »
METALS
METALS
MfcTALS
ME T AL S
METALS
METALS
METALS
METAI.S
METALS
METALS
/ALUMINUM ORE-tJAUX/
/AL vJRt-£l.ECI-:uREi>N/
/AL ORL-cLEChORfcDN/
/AL ORE-ELECHORtON/
/AL Oht— H.BCKliKtUN/
/*L OHE-hLECROHEON/
/ALUMINUM OPC.KATN /
/AL URL-CALC ALHYO/
/COKE MET BYPfiUUUC/
/COKE-MET BYPHODUC/
/COKE-MET BYPRUDUC/
/CUKE-Mtr BYPRUDUC/
GENcHAL
COOKEzHi— rRLbHr I SH
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/TUNS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/Tons
/TUUS
/funs
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/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TUNS
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FISH SCRAP
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STANCH P«ut*UCcLI
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ALUMINUM P«OOUCEO
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ALUM! NOM HHuOUCcD
ALUMINUM HHuuUCEJ
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-------
403
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405
406
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4O9
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411
412
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429
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03
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003
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06
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/TUNS
/TUNS
/T JN3
VTONs
/TsJNS
/TONS
/TONS
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-------
434
435
436
437
433
439
440
441
442
44 J
444
445
446
447
448
449
4 SO
451
452
453
454
455
456
' 457
458
4S9
460
461
462
463
464
3 03 009 02
3 03 OO9 O3
3 O3 009 04
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3'
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
'03
03
03
OJ
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
O4
04
04
04
009
009
010
010
010
010
Oil
Oil
Oil
012
012
O13
Olft
014
014
014
030
030
030
030
O3O
030
030
999
001
OO1
001
001
05
99
01
02
03
99
Ol
02
99
Ol
99
Ol
01
O2
03
99
01
02
03
04
OS
06
99
99
01
O2
03
04
INDUSTR IAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
PRUCES/PRIMARY
PROCEi/PHIMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCtS/PR IMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCdi/PRlMAHY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PRUCtb/PRlMARY
PHOCES/PR IMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PRUCES/PRIMARY
PROCtS/PRIMARY
PROCES/PRI MARY
PRUcfcS/PR IMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PRUCES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PHOCES/PHIMARY
PRUCES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PRIMARY
PROCtS/PHIMARY
PROCEi/PHIMARY
PROLES/PRIMARY
PROCES/PH IMARY
METALS
MtTALS
METALS
MtTALS
MtTAl S
METALS
MLTALS
METALS
METALS
MtTALS
MLTALS
MFTALS
MCTALS
METALS
METALS
MLTALS
METALS
METAI S
METALS
METAI S
METrtLS
MbTALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
PStjCES/SECONDARY MuTALS
PROCeS/SECONOARY METALS
PUOCES/SECONDARY METALS
PROCES/SECONOARY METALS
/STEEL PRODUCTION /
/STEEL PRODUCTION /
/iTEEL PRODUCTION >
/STEEL PRODUCTION /
/STtEL PRODUCTION /
/LEAD SMELTERS >
/LEAD SMtLTEfcS t
/LEAO SMULTEHS /
/LEAD SMELTERS I
/MULYUNUM MINING /
/MOLYoNUM MILLING >
/MOLYt.NUM PktiCE-S <
/TITANIUM PROCESS /
/TITANIUM PROCES /
/GOLD /
/UARIUM /
/UARIUM /
/UARIUM t
/BARIUM /
/ZINC SMELTING /
/ZINC SMELTING /
/ZINC SMELT ING /
/ZINC SMELT INu /
/ZINC SMELTING /
/ZINC SMELTING. /
/ZINC SMELTING /
/OTHER/NOT CLASFU ,
/ALUMINUM UPERATN /
/ALUMINUM OPERA1N t
/ALUMINUM OPERATN /
/ALUMINUM UPLRATN >
' OPNHEARTH NOXLNCE
' BUF— GENERAL
' eLc<.T ARC 0/LANCE
' ELECT At-c NULANCE
' OTHER/NOT CLASFD
' SINTER/CRUSHING
' tlLAiT FURNACE
' UEVcRU HIPNACE
' OTHER/NOT LLAiFO
' GENLKAL
' GfcNKRAL
' OTHLR/i'TOT CLASIFD
' CMLORINATION STAT
' OTHER/NUT CLAblFO
' MINING/PSUCESSING
' JKfc GR1NO
' REDUCT.N KILN
' Ort IC.RS/CALC INtRS
' OTht-.R/NOT CL~aFO
' i^OASTNG/KULT-MHTH
' SINTERING
' HORIZ RETORTS
' VERT RETjr.TS
' ELECTROLYTIC PROC
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' SPECIFY IN REMARK
' SWEAT INGFUKNACE
' SMELT-CRUCIBLE
' SMELT-REVERE) FNC
' CHLHRINATN STATN
/TONS
/TO.SS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
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/TONS
PROOUCEO
PK.j'JUCfeO
PRJOUCEO
PRUUOCEO
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CUNCENTKATfco ORE
CuNCENTKATiu) Ot. c
/nUNUHEOa jF TONS MINED
/TONS PK'JuUCT
/TUNS
/IONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/TONS
/IONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TOSS
/TONS
/TONS
/1UNi
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TONS
/TONS
PROCESSED1
PRJUIUCT
PROCES3EO
ORE
PKOCiiStO
PKOCtSSLu
Pt.IJCE.aSEU
PRocIsSEO
PWUCtibED
PHUCLSSED
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PROCf SSED
PROCtLSStO
PRODUCED
PRODUCED
METAL PRODUCED
METAL PRODUCED
MtTML PWOOUCho
to
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-------
4bS
466
467
408
. 409
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
47B
479
480
4U1
483
484
405
4U6
487
46B
499
49O
491
492
493
494
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3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

04
04
O4
04
O4
04
04
O4
04
04
O4
O4
04
O4
O4
04
04
04
04
O4
04
04
O4
04
C4
04
O4
O4
O4
O4
O4

001
001
CO1
001
001
OO2
OO2
002
002
002
002
002
OO3
OO3
003
OO3
003
003
OO3
004
004
004
004
O04
004
005
005
OO6
006
"007
OO7

10
11
20
bO
99
01
02
03
04
OS
06
99
01
02
OJ
O5
30
40
99
01
02
OJ
04
oa
99
Ol
99
01
99
01
02

INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL.
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL

PWOCES/SECONDAdY
PROCtS/ SECONDARY
PROCES/ SECONDARY
f-RUCES/SECONDAHY
PRvlCES/SECONOAKY
PROCES/SECGNDARY
PROCES/SECONOARV
PROCLS/SECONDAHY
PROCCS/SECONDAHY
PRUCES/SECUNDARY
PHOCES /SECOND ARY
PRUCES/SECONOARY
PROLES/SECONDARY
PHUCES/SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONOAKY
PHUCES/bECONOARY
PR JCES/SECCNOA RY
PRUCtS/SEC ONDA KY
PROCES/SECONOAHY
PROCLS/SECONDARY
PROCES/ SECOND ARY
PHOCES/ 5EC GNO A BY
PROCES/ SECOND ARY
PROCfcS/ SECONDARY
PROCEi/SECONDAHY
PROCtS/SECONDAHY
PROCES/SECONDAHY
PHOCES/SECUMMHY
PROCESS SECONDARY
PROOFS/SECONDARY
PROCtS/seCONDARY

MEI ALS
METALS
METALS
MuTALS
METAL3
MEI ALS
ML T ALS
ME T AL S
METALS
METALS
ME f ALS
MCTALS
ML f AL S
METALS
MEI ALS
METALS
METALS
METAui
METALS
METALS
MET ALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
ME r ALS
METALS
Me T ALS
METALS
METALS
METALS

/ALUMINUM OPERATN
/ALUMINUM UPLRATH
/ALUMINUM OPEHATN
/ALUMINUM UPERATN
/ALUMINUM OPERATN
/Lift ASS/rtKUN2 MELT
/URASS/BRJN2 MtLT
/UMASS/URDN2 Mt L T
/dRASS/iJR'JN/ MELT
/dRASS/tlRONZ MELT
/BKAS'j/BMUNZ MELI
/GRAY IRON
/GRAY I RUN
/GRAY IRON
/GRAY IRON
/GRAY IRON
/i»RAY IRON
/GRAY IRON
/LEAD SMELT SEC
/LEAD SMELT SEC
/LdAO SMELT SEC
/LEAD SMELT SEC
/LEAD SMELT SEC
/LEAD SMLLT SEC
/LEAD fcATlERY
/LEAD BATTERY
/MAGNSS 1UM SCC
/MAGNESIUM SEC
/STFEL FOUNDRY
/STEEL FOUNDRY

/ FOIL ROLLING
/ FOIL CJNVfeKTIIMii
/ CAN MANUFACTURE
/ ROLL— Dw AW-L XTrtUOc
/ OTHcR/NOT CLASFD
/ dLAST FNC
/ CRUCIBLE FNC
/ CUPOLA FNC
/ ELECT INDUCTION
/ REvERQ FNC
/ ROTARY FiJC
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/ CUPJLA
/ HtVEHB FNC
/ ELECT INOUCTIUN
/ ANNEALING LJPtRA TN
/ MISC CASJ-FAdCTN
/ GK1HD ING-CLEANI NG
/ OTHER/NOT CLASIFD
/ POT FURNACE
/ REVERB F.MC
/ bL AST /CUPOLA FNC
/ HOT ARY REVEKd FNC
/ LEAD OXIDE MFG
/ OTHER/NOT CLASIf-D
/ GENERAL
/ OTHER/NOT CLASIKO
/ PUT FUMNACfc
/ OTHER/NOT CLASIFD
/ ELECTRIC AhC FNC
/ UHEN KEAkTH FNC

/TUNS
/TON3
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TONS
/TONS
/TiiNb
/TUNS
/lONi
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TONS
/TuNi
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TON j
/TONS
/TONS
/TuNb
/TUNS
/TONi
/TONS
/TONi
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS

PRODUCT
PRODUCED
PRUOUCCD
PRJUUC-U
PROOUCcU
CHAhut
CHARGE
CHAKGt
CHAHGc
CHA^Gc
CrIArtGL
PF. JOJCtU
MtTAL CHANGE
MLTAL LHAr
-------
496
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SOO
SOI
5 OZ
503
SQ4
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
Sib
517
518
S19
520
521
522
523
524
S25
526
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 O4
3 O4
3 O4
3 O4
3 04
3 O4
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 O4
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 04
3 OS
3 OS
3 OS
3 OS
3 OS
007
007
OO7
007
OO8
008
ooa
ooa
008
008
ooa
OO3
ooa
oat
OO9
010
010
on
Oil
O2O
020
O20
020
020
050
999
O01
001
O01
OOl
OOI
03
04
05
99
01
02'
03
O4
OS
06
07
08
99
Ol
99
01
99
01
99
01
02
O3
O4
99
01
99
Ol
02
03
04
99
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL
PROCEi/SECONDARY
PR uCeS/SECUNDARY
PROCES/SECONDARY
PROCES/SECUNUAHY
PROCtS/SECONDAHY
PROCfcS/SECONOARY
PROCEb/SECONOARY
PROCES/SECUNOAHY
PROCES/SECONOARY
PROCES/SECONOARY
PROCES/SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONDA BY
PROCES/SECUNOARV
PKOCtS/SECONDARY
PRUCES/SECONOARV
PROCES/SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONOASY
PR OCfcS/ SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONOARY
PROCES/ SECONDARY
PROCES/SECONOAfiY
PROCtb/SECONDASY
PROCES/SECUMDARY
PROCES/SECONDARY
METALS
METALS
MUTALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
METALS
PROCES/SECONDARY METALS
PROCES/ MINERAL PRODUCTS
PRUCES/MINERAL PRODUCTS
PROCES/MINERAL PRODUCTS
PROCES/MINERAL PRODUCTS
PROCES/MINERAL PRODUCTS
/STEEL FOUNDRY /
/STEEL FOUNDHY /
/STEEL (FOUNDRY /
/STEEL FOUNDRY /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/ZINC SEC /
/MALLEABLE I HUN /
/MALLbAULE IRON /
/NI CKEL /
/NICKEL /
/ZIRCONIUM /
/ZIRCONIUM /
/FURNACE ELECTRODE/
/FURNACC ELECTRODE/
/FURNACE ELECTRODE/
/FURNACE ELECTRODE/
/FURNACE ELECTkllOc/
/MISC CASTtFABRCTN/
/OTHEh/NOT CLASIFD/
/ASPHALT ROOFING /
/ASPHALT ROOFING /
/ASPHALT ROOKING /
/ASPHALT ROOFING /
/ASPHALT ROUt-INb /
(IPtrf HEARTH LANCD
MEAT-TREAT FNC
INDUCTION FURNACE
OTHER/NOT CLASIFO
RETORT FNC
HOHIZ MUI-FLE FNC
POT FUKNACE
GALVANIZING KETTL
CALCINING KILN
CUNCENTHATK DKYEft
REVERU-SttLAT FNC
OTHeH/NOT CLAS1FO
ANNEALING (JPErtATN
OTHER/NOT CLASIFU
FLUX FURNACE
OTHER/NOT CLAS1FD
OXIDE KILN
OTHEH/NOI CLASIFD
CALCINATION
MIXING
PITCH TKFAT1N5
BAK£ FURNACES
OTHER/NOT CLASIFU
SPECIFY IN REMARK
SPECIFY IN REMARK
BLOWING OPERATION
DIPPING ONLY
SPRAYING ONLY
DIPPING/SPRAYING
UTHER/NOT CLAS1FC/
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/TUNS
/TONS
/TONS
/TUNS
/•T3NS
/TONS
/TONS
/TiJUi
/TUNi
/TONS
/TONS
/TUN.i
/TONS
/TONS
PROCESSED
PRUCESSED
PROCESSED
PKOCfcSSEO
PRdKUCEO
PHuOUCED
PkUUUCcO
PKOOUCtO
PKUuUCfcD
PH3UUCEO
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-------
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676
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/TONS
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• 	 • 	 	 10
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-------
806     5 03 00*  01  SQL ID HASTE        /INDUSTRIAL         /RAIL CA« t>Ji
-------
SOLID  HASTE OI  RESIDENTIAL  OPEN BURNING
a 42
643
8»»
845
646
847
8C8
849
050
651
392
833
a 54
ass
656
WS7
858
859
860
861
SOLID WASTE 01 COMM/INST
SOLID HASTE DI COMM/INST
SOLID HASTE DI INDUSTRIAL
SOLID HASTE INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTATION GASOLINE
TRANSPORTATION GASOLINE.
TRANSPORTATION GASOLINE
TRANSPORTATION DIESEL
TRANSPORTATION DIESEL
TRANSPORTATION DIESEL
TRANSPORTATION AIR
TRANSPORTATION AIR
TRANSPORTATION AIR
TRANSPORTATION VESSELS
TRANSPORTATION VESSELS
TRANSPORTATION VESSELS
ON SITE. INC I NCR
OPEN BURNING
ON SITt INCINKH
OPEN BURNING
LIGHT VEHICLES
HEAVY VEHICLES
UFF HIGHWAY
HEAVY VEHICLES
UFF HIGHWAY
RAIL
MILITARY
CIVIL
CUMMEfcLlAL
UITUMINOUS COAL
DIESEL FUtEL
rttSIOUAL OIL
TRANSPORTATION VESSELS GASOLINE
TRANSPORTATION GASOLINE HANDLING EVAP LOSS,
MISCELLANEOUS CAS HANDLING EVAP LOSS
MISCELLANEOUS SCLVENT EVAP LOSS

                                                                                                                                                        U3
                                                                                                                                                        to

-------
               APPENDIX D
EMISSIONS DATA FOR SOURCES OF AIR POLLUTION
           IN THE CHICAGO AQCR
                      293

-------
EH1SSICN  SGUVSCES  IN CCCK
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                            APPENDIX E



        MAXIMUM POSSIBLE CHANGE  IN TWO  SETS  OF POPEX VALUES



     To calculate the maximum possible  changes between two sets of

popex levels, or in other words, between two sets of numbers  both of

which add up to 100:



     Let a-jy a2, . . . an and b^, b2, . .  .  bn be the two  sets,

such that:

           n                                    all  ai J   o
           Z   a± = 100
         i = 1
           Z   b± = 100                         all
 and       n
           Z
         i = 1
                                       n
In order to find the maximum value of  Z  absolute  (a^  - bj.) :
                                     i = 1

    n
    Z  absolute  (a.^ - b.^) =  ^  - b]L| +   |a2  - b21   +  .  .  .  +   |an -  bn|
  i = 1

each of the  ja.^ - bi| has to be  maximized.  For this to be true,

either a- or b- has to  be zero for all values of n.  Therefore the

preceding equation can  be rewritten as

   n                        i   i    I   I            II
   Z  absolute  ^ - b±) =  \a1\  +  |a2| +  .  .  . +  |an| +

 1=1                      I   I    IK  I        .IK  I
                            b,l  +  |b2| .  .  .  +  |bj
                              .  +  Zb±
                         1         I
                               325

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                                                                326
                     n                  n
By definition,       I a-  =  100  and  £ b.   =  100.
                     1                  1  1

Thus the maximum possible total change in two sets of  popex levels

is 200.

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                                                                        327
                                 TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                          (Please read Inunctions on the reverse before completing)
  REPORT NO.
  PA-600/2-76-.Q63
                            2.
                                                       3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
  TITLF ANDSUBTITLE
 POPEX--Ranking Air Pollution Sources by Population
 Exposure
                                                       5. REPORT DATE
                                                              1976_
                                                       6. PERFORfdlNG ORGANIZATION CODE
  AUTHOR(S)
                                                      8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
 Lyndon R. Babcock, Jr. and Niren L. Nagda
  PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 University of Illinois
 Medical Center, P.O.  Box 6998
 Chicago, Illinois  60680
                                                       10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.

                                                       1AB012; ROAP 21ADK-031
                                                       11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

                                                       Grant R802111
 2. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
 EPA, Office of Research and Development
  [ndustrial Environmental Research Laboratory
 Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
                                                       13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                       Final; 5/74-11/75
                                                       14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE

                                                        EPA-ORD
 5. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES EpA project officer for this report is C. T. Ripberger, Mail
 Drop 61, Ext 2911.
  • AR<5TRAI"*T
           The report gives results of research to develop quantitative models for
 relating emissions of air pollutants to their effects on people, and to use the
 methodology for determining the relative importance of air pollution sources.  The
 quantitative methodology for  ranking  the sources developed in this project includes
 consideration of the dispersion of air pollutants, exposure of people, and subsequent
 health effects.  The computer model, called POPEX, consists of three submodels:
 dispersion, population, and health effects.  The model was applied to sources of air
 pollution in the Chicago Air Quality Control Region.  Results show that 17 of 227
 categories of sources contribute nearly 80% of the total air-pollution/population-
 effect problem.
17.
                              KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                 DESCRIPTORS
                                            b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                   c.  cos AT i Field/Group
 Air Pollution
 Mathematical Models
 Dispersing
 Health
 Exposure
 Ranking
                                          Air Pollution Control
                                          POPEX
                                          Emissions
                                          Effects
                                          Population Effect
. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENTT

Unlimited
                         13B
                         12A
                         07A,08H
                         06N
                         06F
                         12B
                         05E
19. SECURITY CLASS ('lilts Keport)
Unclassified	
?n r.f-ruRiTY>i A°.S ,'vvm-;~>wi
Unclassiiied
                                                                     21. NO. OF PACiES
                                                                        341
EPA Form 7.220-1

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