fiLTGRnflTIVE
 UTURG/ ROD
    OUflLITY
INVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AGENCY
sarch and Development
\

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    WORKING PAPERS IN
ALTERnATIVE
 UTURG/ ROD
RonmeniflL
     OUfiLITY
     AUGUST 1973
      REVISED
     NOVEMBER 1973
NVIRONMENTAL  ,
'RGTECTION    I
AGENCY       '
•arch and Development
>n Environmental Research Center
(ntal Studies Division

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This report has been reviewed .by the  Office of
Research  and Development,  EPA, and approved for
publication.  Approval  does not'signify that the
contents  necessarily reflect the views  and policies
of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of trade names  or  commercial  products con-
stitute endorsement or  recommendation for use.
      For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.O. 20402 - Price $I.8S

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  FOREWORD
     The quality of the environment is now a major policy issue for govern-
 ment and  industry officials. Policy-makers also find an emerging quality of
 life ethic among the public resulting in ever more persistent articulation of a
 desire for  a higher standard of living, more freedom of choice, more leisure
 and more personal  fulfillment.
     The overriding  concern for  the  environment arises from the  in-
 creasingly visible signs of air pollution, water pollution, waste accumulation,
 noise pollution and  contamination by toxic substances resulting from how
 we do things today. There  is often great pressure for short-range, im-
 mediate solutions to problems. Short-term plans and the means employed
 to achieve these objectives are sometimes implemented without adequate
 consideration for the possible long range environmental degradation which
 may result.
     What is needed, then, to complement immediate action programs is a
 policy assessment process  involving analysis of long-range pitfalls and
 potentials.
     For example, the  Bureau of the Census recently reported that the
 population growth rate in the United States has been decreasing  to the
 point which will eventually produce zero population growth. Does this mean
 that the  population will  not reach the higher numbers forecast only a short
 time ago? Does it mean that contingency planning being done today which
 is sensitive to population fluctuations  will  require some modification?
 Would,  for instance, a smaller  population be expected to produce less
 jpollution and solid wastes? Demographers tell us that family units having:
 fewer children, or children at a later time in life, which  is indicative cf zero
 population growth, results in a greater number of women willing and able to:
 work.  The first order effect of zero population  growth, they tell us,  is ex-
 pected to  be a greater number of people in the work force. Does the com-
 bination of  greater business capacity  and  higher  per capita  income,
 produced  by this  eventuality,  produce a greater pollution and solid waste
 problem than  would initially be expected from a declining population
 growth rate?
;     When faced with these questions, the policy-maker finds limited infor-
 mation available. The more rhetorical and crisis oriented information tends
 to be most available and tends to pervade the consciousness of the  public
• and of public officials. Thus, there appears to be a  need for a forum in which
 the ramifications of  long-term viewpoints can be discussed. We need to
 establish a mechanism for continuing dialogue between policy-makers and
 ecologists, land-use planners, economists, systems analysts, and human
'. behaviorists of all persuasions.

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    What, then, are the full policy implications of zero population growth; of
the newly evolving environmental ethic; of new economic concepts which
span from rental economics to expanded ownership patterns?
    It was in this spirit that the Environmental Studies Division, Washington
Environmental Research Center, Office of Research and Development in-
vited a number of experts to present their views on alternative futures, the
environment and the quality of life. Each was asked to prepare comments in
one of the three following research themes: The Nature of the Environmental
Crisis,  Zero Population Growth and  the  Environment and Implications of
Alternative Growth Policies on Environmental Quality. The invited authors
are listed following this foreword. The Topic area assigned each  author,
which became titles of papers produced for possible presentation at a sym-
posium  is reproduced in  the appendix.
    As  initially planned ,  it was thought that this research project would
utilize a symposium as the vehicle to  elicit comment and response from a
representative cross-section  of governmental  officials having decision-
making  responsibilities affecting the future.  However, it soon became ap-
parent that the complex web of ideas being generated within any one of the
three theme  areas was too much for one group of individuals  at one sitting.
Consequently, it was thought that a more appropriate  tactic would be to
produce this volume expressive of  the kind of  dialogue needed to assist
policy-makers  develop comprehensive  perspectives for assessing future
needs and priorities  on a continuing  basis.


 Stanley M.  Greenfield
 Assistant Administrator
   for Research and Development, EPA,
  August 1973

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 PREFACE

    Early in the organization of the Environmental Studies Division (ESD), a
branch was formed to conduct  research of an exploratory  nature.  This
Branch had as  its objective:

    "To  extend  the time-horizon for policy analysis" and further  to
    build "upon recent advances in the state-of-the-art in the develop-
    ment and application of approaches for generating  and studying
    alternative futures."

    One of the first  projects   undertaken   by this  branch  was  an
EPA Symposium on the Quality-of-Life (QOL) Concept which  was held at
Airlie House in the late summer of 1972. As interest by the social science
community grew in the symposium during its planning phases, ESD staff
thought  it  desirable  to  undertake  a series of inter-disciplinary  study
seminars  as a  part of its  work   program  to reinforce  the  interest
generated in  QOL and other closely related subject matter.
    Topics suggested for the seminar series ranged from environmental
management  to questions of aesthetics.  Lying somewhere between were
topics concerning:  land-use carrying capacity;  the nature  of the en-
vironmental  "crisis"   and  development  of  indicators  of  environmental
quality. The latter topic was eventually researched in-house and included as
a part of the  QOL Symposium.
    As a lead-in to the  seminar  series ESD had been given tentative ap-
proval toiund an EPA publication to be entitled "Environmental Issues and
the Social Sciences." The purpose of the project was to  engage a number
of respected  authorities in a wide range of disciplines to:

    ".. .focus on the expected contributions that social scientists may
    offer to: (1) a better understanding of how to go about managing
    our existing environment (both natural and man-made) and (2) a
    process for creating desirable  alternative  environments  for the
    future."
                                                           The "En-
vironmental  Issues  and the  Social  Sciences"  book project undertook
several turns of events to become the publication you, the reader, now have
in hand.
    Ideas and suggestions contained in the three theme areas mentioned
in the Foreword are reflected in  the six Chapters of this book. Portions of

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each  contributed paper were used,  as appropriate, to  explore as full a
range of opinion in each area as possible. The charge given the editors was
to present in dialogue fashion for each area: the classical concepts and
trends;  new concepts and  possible trends and  implications for growth
policy. Generally the introductory material prepared by the staff is identified
within the text by horizontal line separations.
    this book is divided into two parts.  Part One, Challenges of Alternative
Futures,  reviews the  environmental  and  population issues,  presents a
recent systems  method of analyzing the problems of growth and  sum-
marizes the international implications of growth policy. Part Two,  Cooing
with Alternative Futures,  presents  human  behavioral factors and their
influence on growth policy.   Classical  and  modern  concepts  of   eco-
nomics and  implications of economics for growth  policy   conclude the
work.
    The book was written for policy-makers and planners at all levels of
government in the hope that the most  recent thinking on population, en-
vironment and economic growth can be  diseminated  to initiate discussion
and dialogue and to expand the information base on which decisions are
based. We have many  "alternative futures"; we seek alternatives which
preserve the  environment and improve the quality of life.
                                 John Gerba

                                  Paul Boulay
                                 IV

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RESEARCH MANAGEMENT
For Environmental Protection Agency
  Anton Schmalz, Staff Consultant,  Program Coordinator
  John Gerba, Chief,  Special Projects, General Editor

For Mind Three Communications  Group, Inc.
  Paul Boulay, President, Technical Editor

RESEARCH GUIDANCE
Environmental Protection Agency
   Stanley M. Greenfield, Assistant Administrator for Research & Development
  Leland D. Attaway, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research
  Peter W. House,  Director,  Environmental Studies Division
  Martin J. Redding,  Chief,  Comprehensive Environmental  Planning
    Branch, ESD
  Alan Neuschatz,  Chief, Environmental Management Branch
  Richard M.  Laska, Communications Director

Mind  Three Communications Group, Inc.
  Peter Boulay, Director of Editorial Services
  Scott Callander, Director of Graphic Arts

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CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS
Peter Barth
  Director of Research,  U. S. Department of Labor
Murray Bowen
  Clinical Professor of Psychiatry, Georgetown  University
John Calhoun
  Laboratory of Brain  Evolution and Behavior, National Institute of
    Mental Health
Alexander Christakis
  Center for  Contemporary Problems
Chester Cooper
  Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Lincoln Gordon
  Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Garrett Hard in
  Professor of Human Ecology, University of California
Carl Madden
  Chief Economist,  U.S.  Chamber of Commerce
Graham Molitor
  Director of Government Relations, General Mills, Inc.
Eugene Peterson
  Representing Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission
Ronald Ridker
  Resources  for the Future
S. Fred  Singer
  Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
Donald Spencer
  Consulting Ecologist, National Agricultural Chemicals Association
Beatrice Willard
  Member, Council on Environmental Quality
                                VI

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Table of Contents
Foreword  	i
Preface 	iii
Acknowledgements	 v
Part  1: Challenges of Alternative Futures
Chapter 1.  The Nature of the  Environmental Crises
  Introduction	5
  Elements of the Environmental Crisis	7
  Definition of Environmental  Crisis
    Beatrice  Willard	8
  Environmental Policy and Management  	16
  Lessons  Learned—An Opposing Viewpoint
    Donald Spencer  	21

Chapter 2.  Implications of Zero Population Growth
  Introduction	35
                                                        V.
  The Pressure of Population
    Graham Molitor  	37
  U.S. Population Forecasts 	38
  Determinants of Population Growth
    Graham Molitor	41
  Will the  U.S. Maintain a ZPG Birthrate
    S. Fred Singer	48
  Urbanization of Population,  Alexander Christakis  	51
  Effects of Urban Overpopulation, Graham Molitor  	52
  Can Man Adapt to Urban Living, Graham Molitor  	54
  Environmental Effects of Population Growth	55
  A Classical Model for Environment and Population
    Alexander Christakis  	56
  Economic and Welfare Implications of ZPG
    S. Fred Singer	60
  Resource and Environmental Consequences of ZPG
    Ronald Ridker  	62
  The Policy Implications of ZPG
    Ronald Ridker	76
                                  VH

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Chapter 3.  Analysis of Ecosystem Capacity
  Introduction	^
                                                                 on
  Ecology of the Biosphere  	•  • • °
  The Spaceship Earth Concept 	^
  Implications for Today  	91
    (Remainder of Chapter by Eugene Peterson)
  The Classical Problem of Population  and
    Industrial  Growth	92
  Limitations of Classical Planning 	97
  New Concepts for Planning  	98
  Carrying  Capacity Analysis of the
    Pacific Northwest  	102
  Alternative Goals for the Pacific Northwest 	124
  Carrying  Capacity Implications for Policy	127

Chapter 4.  International  Implications of  Growth  Policy
  Introduction 	135
    (Remainder of Chapter by Lincoln  Gordon)
  The International Impact of National
    Growth Policy Alternatives	136
  Implications of International Competition  	137
  Implications of National Alternatives for
    the World Structure  	142
  Implementing International-Oriented Growth	147

Part 2: Coping with Alternative Futures
Chapter 5. Growth and Behavior
  Introduction  	161
  Human  Short Range Thinking  	162
  Responsibility and Personal Commitment 	162
  Productivity and the Quality of the Work
    .Environment, Peter Barth	164
  Changing the Attitudes of Society,
    Garrett Hardin	168
  Human  Consciousness and Management of
    jMultidisciplinary Activities, John Calhoun	171
  The Systems Viewpoint of Human Behavior,
    Murray Bowen 	174
                                  VIM

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Chapter 6. Growth and Economics
  Summary	,	183
  Classical Concepts  of Economic Growth
    Carl Madden	,	184
  New Concepts of Economic Growth
    Carl Madden  	196
  Sustainable Growth, Chester Cooper 	207
  Who Pays for Change, Carl Madden 	_212
  Implementing Change, Carl Madden 	j?17
  Implications for Economic Policy	221
  Attributes of Successful Planning
    Chester Cooper  	 221
  Features of a Government-Business
    Growth Policy, Carl Madden	224

Appendix  	229
                                IX

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CHALLENGES OF ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

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  The  "challenges of alternative  futures" encompass the problems of
providing a high quality of life with minimum environmental degradation to a
growing population tending to cluster in crowded urban areas and requiring
industrial, economic and technological growth.
  In Part 1 several aspects of population and environment are discussed
from several viewpoints. The Nature of the Environmental Crisis  is defined
in Chapter 1  from a viewpoint of ecological  balance and  stability. Seven
ecological principles are proposed and their implications for  broad goals
and policy are outlined.  Present activities of the Federal government in
managing the environment are reviewed; the need for economic  incentives
complementary to and supporting  regulation  is discussed. The control of
pesticides is reviewed, recent information  on decreasing residues of DDT
found in several test programs are presented  leading to the author's con-
clusion that,  with more complete information now available,  pesticide
regulation might take a different course.
  In Chapter  2 the Implications of Zero  Population  Growth (ZPG) are
discussed from several viewpoints. Recently the United States birth rate has
been decreasing and is currently below the replacement rate.  Thus a Zero
Population Growth rate has been achieved. However,  the population will
continue to grow in absolute  numbers and trends to urbanization resulting
in densely populated areas will continue. Therefore population growth will
continue to be a problem for  national and regional planners and decision-
makers.
  In the Chapter current population forecasts are reviewed, reasons for the
declining fertility rate are presented and one contributing author concludes
that the rate will remain near its present value. He presents social, cultural
and economic reasons for his conclusion. The effects of population growth
on  the environment under conditions of ZPG are reviewed first using  a
single  model to  illustrate relationships, then  presenting the  results of  a
more complete study.
  In conclusion policy alternatives for achieving an improved quality of life
and environment are reviewed. Direct methods, i.e. specific pollution con-
trol, planned land use and similar procedures are shown by this author to
be  superior to  less specific goals such as "zero growth".
  In Chapter 3  an Analysis of Ecosystem Capacity is presented. The paper
from which this material was  taken presents a first attempt at  applying an
analysis of carrying capacity to a region. First approximation numbers are
developed for the Pacific Northwest as a specific example of the technique.
  The author's methodolgy includes the following steps:  1) establish a ben-
chmark quality of life standard (per capita income level and apportionment),
2) determine the capacity  of  resources in the region  to supply material
goods, 3) determine  the capacity of resources in  the region  to  supply

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amenities  (measured  as  recreational  land available),  4)  quantify the
variation of environmental quality as a function of population numbers and
5) evaluate alternative combinations of population and pollution control by
comparing the quality of life and regional capacity obtainable for each alter-
native. The author concludes that the approach is  viable,  given  more
research and information.  He recommends that this analytical  tool be used
to support policy and planning analyses; he suggests that full dissemination
of information to the public, development of public conception of goals, ef-
fective land use and energy use and control are essential to long-range im-
provement of the environment.
  In Chapter 4 the International Implications of  Growth Policy  are sum-
marized. The international dimension of environmental policy  is discussed
from two viewpoints: 1) constraints of freedom of national action imposed by
international realities (i.e.  oil  importation) and 2) the effects  of alternative
national growth policies on the world  structure.  Clearly, the  international
dimensions of growth policy must be incorporated in planning  at the outset

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I
NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CRISES
Introduction
  Planners and decision makers at all levels of government and industry
are faced with the reality of pressure from the public to improve the quality
of the  environment and the quality of  life.  This demand comes from a
general awareness  of the degradation we inflict on our surroundings and
from a  fear we  may destroy ourselves  if degrading trends are not reversed.
Concern for quality of life stems from an increasing emphasis on human
and social values. National,  state and local  policies must allow for these
considerations.
  Quality of life is as difficult to define as happiness. It is highly subjective
and the concepts change with time. Attempts to define and measure quality
of  life center  on  enumeration of  economic,  social,  aesthetics,
psyschological and environmental factors generally agreed to affect quality
of life.  It is clear than a quality of life ethic has become deeply engrained in
our society and that a growing demand  for improving and  maintaining the
quality of  the environment is a  principal component of that ethic.
  Nearly everyone  knows that  ecology is the science dealing  with the
relationships between organisms and their environment; that the biosphere
is that portion of the earth and its environment within which life is contained.
Nearly  everyone perceives that all things in the biosphere  are interrelated
and form a complex ecosystem.  Everyone understands^ to some degree,
that the environment includes not only the physical reality surrounding man
but that man himself is an integral part of the environment. Indeed,  he is the
only part able to willfully modify the environment. Everyone has heard of the
"environmental crisis" and the "population explosion." Most are concerned
about depletion of natural resources and  many question the potential effects
of "uncontrolled technology."
  Divergent views are  held regarding  the nature 
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 Some hold that the concept of crisis itself is a dangerous illusion—we will-
 never reach a turning point after which unalterable degradation or dramatic
 improvement will be realized. Instead we are faced with a slowly (lately
 more rapidly) evolving change which must be controlled by continuous hard
 work. Some put economic growth and other values above quality of life and
 quality of environment and are unconcerned about environmental degrada-
 tion. Some feel technology will find solutions to most of the problems before
 they become critical.
  This range of viewpoints  exists because we are really quite  ignorant
 about  many  of the  relationships,  between  population,  economics,
 technology,  and the environment. In the past  economic growth has been
 empha  zed not knowing at what expense it caused  qualitative growth.  The
 social cost of environmental degradation has nowhere been accounted for
 adequately.  The environment  as  a  comprehensive  system  with  in-
 terdependent  parts  including  man  has hardly  been  perceived.  En-
 vironmental considerations hardly entered the policy and decision process.
  This  report  presents  discussions of the major  environmental  issues,
taken from invited papers and other sources.  In  this Chapter  current en-
vironmental  policy and  management are reviewed and  an opposing view-
 point, questioning whether we are guilty of over-control  is presented. This
discussion illustrates the need for more information, more research, better
understanding  and  the  need  for  a  comprehensive  conceptualiza-
tion—models, methods of analyses and unifying systems concepts—to bet-
ter analyze and evaluate environmental policy.
  Subsequent Chapters will cover population  growth and the implications
of Zero Population Growth, the application of carrying capacity analysis to
regional planning, the international implications of growth policy,  and the
relationships between growth, economics and behavior.

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Elements of the Environmental Crisis
  The princip al elements  contributing to our environmental problems are
population, degradation of the physical environment,  changing technology,
and economic growth.
  The National  Goals Research Staff summarized the principal issues as
follows:

 Population Issues
      The traditional view of population growth as a source of national
    pride and strength is  being re-examined. Some authorities argue
    for zero population growth on the grounds that population stability
    is imperative for survival, or will improve the quality of our society.
    (For example, it might enable us to avoid  the issue of limitations
    on the use of energy and materials.)
      The merits of sheer size  now  appear more debatable  than
    heretofore, particularly in  the case of large metropolitan areas.
    Large concentrations  of population generate  serious pollution
    problems,  traffic congestion,  and  higher  per capita  public ex-
    penditures. And they are  unduly  vulnerable to power failures,
    riots, and other disruptive social action. Thus, major questions are
    asked:  should we limit our population size, and if so, how? And
    should we redistribute our population, and if so, how?
 Environmental Issues
       Historically, our concern  over resources  focused  on whether
    there would  be enough food, energy, and materials to meet our
    needs. Today, in the United States,  the concern is about the ability
    of land,  air, and water to absorb all the wastes we generate. We
    already  have violated the aesthetic  limits of pollution and,  from
    time to time and place to place, we have violated health and sur-
    vival limits of pollution. Some argue that the long-run issue may
    well be our survival. Questions often asked are: What can be  done
    to repair the damage already done? To what extent and by what
     means will future pollution be contained  within tolerable limits?
    Are there fixed limits of environmental tolerance that might make it
     imperative to limit the  size of our population  or set per capita
    quotas on the amount of energy and material we may use?

 Technology Assessment
       Technology is becoming both more voluminous and more com-
     plicated. The complexity of much new technology makes it  more

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     difficult to anticipate how it will do its primary job and what its
     second-order consequences will  be. As our understanding of
     biological, ecological, economic, and social  processes improves,
     we are struck with the complexity  of the consequences which
     technology can produce. We have a growing determination and
     belief in our capacity to evaluate the second-order consequences
     of all our  actions including the use of technology, and to include
     their costs in our policymaking process.
Economic Issues
       In the past, the air and water have been readily available for any
     purpose.  Our production and consumption activities  could be
     carried  out without particular concern for conserving our natural
     gifts.
       But as  production  and consumption have risen  (along  with
     population) more and more  impositions have been made on the
     air and  waters.  These  incursions  are the  consequence of
     economic growth and the notion that the environment is available
     at no cost for whatever use we want, including that of disposal of
     the wastes from economic activity. Thus, when we impose on our
     air and waters in ways and amounts that use  up these necessities,
     we levy a  real social  cost. These resources  are no longer free to
     society.
       Because private use of the physical environment is available at
     no cost, the market system which allocates resources operates im-
     perfectly.  To attack pollution requires a balancing of the costs of
     imposing  on the environment with the economic benefits obtained
     from the associated production and consumption.

Definition  of Environmental  Crisis

  The following definition and discussion of the environmental crisis is
taken from the invited paper prepared by Bettie Willard, a member of the
Council on  Environmental Quality. She defines the term  environmental
crisis,  reviews the fundamental  principles  of ecosystems, and  presents
recent examples of ecological  problems  and man's response.  She
suggests general strategies which can be implemented to deal with  the
problems.


  The  definition of an "environmental crisis" is:

  1. An imbalance among the physical, chemical, and biological elements
                                 8

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    and/or  processes of an  ecosystem  that threatens  the vitality and
    productivity of some or all species of the system.
  2. A disruption of a biological system to the point where it no longer can
    support some or all  the organisms in it.
  3. A reversal of ecological processes of an ecosystem to a point where
    several to many generations are required to restore the productivity,
    complexity, and stability of the system.
The Rhetoric of Crisis
  Much of the rhetoric about an environmental crisis is being used in an at-
tempt to awaken man to his relationship  to the environment and to  his
responsibility for being sure we approach no nearer a  threshold,  beyond
which there is no return. Man assumes this responsibility a little by default,
in that he, by his nature, is the only species on the earth that can remember
and transmit complex knowledge. This feature of man makes him capable of
forecasting the future in some limited ways, based on observations arising
from the past.  Because he has this ability, it is incumbent on him to use it in
constructive ways.
  The important thing to realize about an environmental crisis is that we do
not want to reach the point where we actually have one of any magnitude. I
think we can all see that  we have had one of minor magnitude in some of
the waterways and urban areas of our Nation. Fortunately these problems
have not reached major proportions yet  But we do not, under any condition,
want to  reach  the point of the major environmental crisis. The price is too
high—massive famine, extensive disease,  stark landscapes,  degeneration
of civilization as we know it. Therefore, why all this talk of environmental
crisis, when we have not yet experienced one?
  I shoufd like to draw two analogies,  to  illustrate why we are using the
term:

   t. In  training  children  about hot stoves, poisons, cars, cliffs, etc.,  we
    make the situation imperative because we know the consequences and
    do  not want the person to reach the point of crisis.
  2. As adults we make budgets of time, materials, labor, money, because
    we know the consequences of not doing so. Again we are unequivocal
    in our approach, as  a  preventive rather than curative thing.
  In each of these cases,  the dire results of negative action are clear before
the adult mind. That clear picture motivates positive clearcut action.
Examples  of  Response  to Environmental  Problems
  Now,  in the  case of "environmental crisis," the dire results of the trends
now in  motion cause ecologists who see these consequences clearly,  to

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 use the term "environmental crisis" to get attention ancf motivate people
 positively.  For example:

   LSoil erosion  in the early 1900s led us to take positive action  to
     establish the  Soil Conservation Service.
   2. Exploitive  forestry "practices" at the turn of the century led to the
     establishment of the U.S.  Forest  Service and  adoption of more ad-
     vanced,  long-range  forest  practices from European  countries.
   3. Overgrazing in the West resulted in the Taylor Grazing Act and in wise
     wildlife management practices,  such as  carrying capacity.
   4. The Kaibab deer herd die-off in the 1920s caused us  to accept the role
     of predators and to  determine the carrying  capacity of the range.

 Principles Governing Ecosystems
   Ecosystems,  of which we are an integral part, are governed by the follow-
 ing principles:
   First, everything affects  everything else.  The  more  we  learn  of the
 ecosystems of  the earth, the more we realize the  truth  of this principle.
 Never have we found evidence to the contrary. For example,  just try to find a
 biological sample  from pole to pole without DDT or radiation in it. And how
 did it get there?
   Second,  all living things exist as part of systems composed  of physical
 environmental factors—climate, soil,  exposure,  etc.;  organisms; and the
 processes that operate among the organisms and environment factors. Also
 each species of living thing has a specific role to play in the ecosystem.
   Third, in  each system there are factors that limit the growth, reproduction,
 or activities of some or all the species; therefore the distribution of species
 is determined by these physical and chemical parameters  interacting with
the nature  of the species.
   Fourth, each system has a definite capacity to carry the  organisms of that
 system, determined both by the physical features of the  environment and
the nature  of the biological  components.
   Fifth, in these systems  all  materials cycle—are reused,  but the energy of
the systems flows  in one direction—downward to uselessness.
   Sixth, as specialization develops in a system, diversity increases; and as
diversity increases, stability of  the system increases.
   Seventh, all surfaces of the earth are either  in varying stages of develop-
 ment toward stability or at the permanent ecosystem for a given site for the
 present conditions of climate.
   As we examine these principles in light  of  their meaning to human
 ecology, we find that man has  rejected these principles  as being not ap-
                                  10

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plicable to him. He has, after all, demonstrated dominion over lack of food,
over fluctuating climate, over disease. So these principles obviously do not
apply to him—only to those other organisms less fortunate than he. This is
where and how he has created a potential short-or long-range ecological
crisis. For he is  a part of the systems to which these principles apply,
whether he accepts the fact or not. And his overlooking of these principles
has precipitated potential or actual ecological crises of varying magnitudes.
                         /
Examples of Environmental  Crisis
  To emphasize this point, to get man's attention focused on the problem
before it is too late, ecologists have talked of "environmental crises", they
-have talked of "our plundered planet" (Osborne, 1941), of a "road to sur-
vival" (Vogt, 1941), a "land ethic" (Leopold, 1945)and an "ecological con-
 science"  (Sears,  1937). They have even spoken of a "silent spring" (Car-
son, 1962) in efforts to awaken man to the neccessity to take his niche—his
role in the ecosystems, not over these  systems.
  At this  point in time,  it behooves man to quickly bring himself into con-
formance with these principles. An ignominious end may await man—not
an end to the ecosystems of the earth, which have the potential to survive
the crisis. After all, man is the first organism, so far as we know, that has the
quality of rational  thinking accompanied by  memory  and transmittal of
knowledge. This  unique ability carries a  special responsibility that it be
used for the benefit of all of the earth.
  To implement man's conformance with the ecological  principles outlined
above and to measure his degree of harmony with his ecosystem, we need
a variety  of  monitoring systems. We need to know the  limiting factors
operating and how close we are to reaching them. We need to know the
level of energy consumption and what  types of uses consume less.  We
need to  know the carrying  capacity  of ecosystems  for man  and  his
processes, as well as for deer, elk, cows, sheep—and how close we are to
maintaining or exceeding this capacity. We need to augment the conscious
cycling of materials and  to  know  better how these cycles affect  the
ecosystems. We need to favor stability and diversity and know that we are.
Some of these monitoring systems are in  use  now. Some we will need to
devise.
  To bring portions of the system into balance with other components, we
need to  use pollution  control devices.  These  are best designed to ac-
complish  the  balancing in the way the  system always-has. For example,
spray irrigation for land disposal of sewerage,  rather than river disposal.
  All terrestrial organisms  but man dispose of their organic wastes on
land—trees drop leaves and fruits—animals defecate on soil—all of which
returns nitrogen, carbon, phosphorous to the material cycles in a short time.
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 But man sends his wastes out to sea to be made into rock, to be mine   y
 some as yet unknown organisms in eons to come, thus enforcing
 need to mine more of these substances to return to the land from whence
 he has taken them as food or fiber.  A cycle of incredible magnitude and no
 known utility!
   Let us examine a few major environmental crises of recent years. Well-
 known,  but highly instructive is the Aswan Dam situation in which several
 major imbalances were triggered by the  closing of the dam:

   1. Change in nutrient balance throughout the Nile Valley, traditional to the
     productivity of this valley for literally thousands of years, by collecting
     of sediment  in Lake Nassar that once yearly fertilized  the valley.
   2. Change in nutrient level in the Mediterranean, lowering the productivity
     of invertebrate fish  food (shrimp), therefore of fish (sardines).
   3. Change in soil moisture, allowing one  stage of a parasite carrying
     schistomyosis to develop and invade man which before  had been con-
    trolled by  the  periodic flooding,  leading  to  major disease  in the
     population.
   Therefore, what was intended as a great blessing to the Egyptians as a
source of power and controlled  irrigation water, turned out to be a serious
detriment to food sources and the health of  the nation.
   Could this have been predicted and averted? Yes, definitely; but so doing
would have required one to several years of intensive ecological research
of the natural systems  inhabiting the area to be affected. The technology to
accomplish this research existed. The  desire  to  know  and use  it was
lacking.
   A second and somewhat less dramatic example of environmental crisis is
represented by fire control practices in the Western  United States.  It has
recently been discovered that fire  protection allows tinder  to buNd up  in
stands, so that when a fire does occur, the destruction is many times greater
than if the fire  had been  allowed to periodically clean out the tinder. Also
with fire protection, some valued tree species, such as sugar pine and giant
sequoia,  are overgrown by less valued trees, such as  incense cedar.
   A third example was cited above—when man protected the Kaibab deer
of Grand Canyon from their life-long predators, they increased their num-
bers by 25  percent per year, soon to eat themselves out of  house and
home. Having devastated their range, they died of starvation in large num-
bers. Some favor we did them!
   So it is with man's not-so-infinite wisdom. He frequently turns out to be
much more like a bull  in a china shop, not recognizing or obeying the time-
less principles that have operated to keep the systems that  have spawned
him operating  in  a dynamic equilibrium. As Lynn White points out, man's
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complex of "having dominion" over everything has provided the roots of
our ecological crisis. Man has interpreted "having dominion" as having the
right to exploit, desecrate, destroy as he pleased. And now he is awakening
to the results of his actions; potential ecological crises.
   Man has long believed, and with some justification, that any change he
brings to the natural system will be beneficial. At first, this was  true. The
development of agriculture and the domestication of animals both enabled
man to be free of the need  for  hunting and to use this time for cultural pur-
suits. The construction of houses and the use of fossil fuels to heat them
enabled man to leave the  cave.
   Why did this awakening not happen earlier? Mainly because the systems
are capable of absorbing some abuse without changing drastically. Also, in
1969 two events made him see these systems more clearly. The Santa Bar-
bara oil  spill and the landing on the Moon made him realize dramatically
how tenuous but important is that thin film of the Earth's biosphere.  Now
these changes are showing cumulative  degradation—trends which, if not
reversed, could lead to destruction of the race. Not a violent, catastrophic
destruction, but a slow,  painful, whimpering destruction.
Application of Ecological Principles
   When man applies the principles of ecosystems the results are strikingly
good. For example, when the  limnologists at the University of Washington
realized the downward trends in motion in Lake Washington due to sewage
outfall into the lake, they designed a method of sewage disposal to bring
the system back closer to its original pre-man functioning. The results were
a dramatic return to a healthy  ecosystem within three years.
   A second  example  is the Pribiloff seals which, when protected against
hunting  pressure during the crucial mating period and rearing  of young,
made a significant comeback in population numbers. Similar examples can
be seen with several other rare and endangered species.
   Thirdly,  western ranges that have been managed at or below  their
carrying capacity for cattle, deer, elk, have shown amazing  recovery to their
once high productivity.
   Seeing how quickly and dramatically results of obeying  ecological prin-
ciples can occur, let us  now examine each ecological principle  in light of
some things man can  do now to implement that principle  in his  activities:
   First principle:  If everything  we do affects everything else, we need to
trace out the direct and indirect effects accurately, so as  to know how to
modify  action  adequately and accurately. Examples  are in  DDT  and
phosphate,  where we  have  only been  concerned  with  the primary ef-
fects—dead pests and clean clothes, without looking at the secondary, ter-
tiary, etc., effects of these substances in the  pathways they follow in the
ecosystems of the world.
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   Stopping  phosphates  in  the ecosystem  can be equally  or  more
 devastating than too much, as phosphate provides an essential component
 to transfer of energy in all biological  systems.
   The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 is  causing agencies to
 have to answer these questions and many more—at least in part. This is a
 vast improvement, for even without all the answers, seriously addressing
 the questions is a sobering experience that usually leads to more conserva-
 tive action.  More needs to be done.
   Sometimes when we do find out where materials are going in the systems
 with which we are dealing, we discover a natural pathway that protects man
 from the harmful effects, thus  we can put the pathway to use consciously. A
 beautiful example of this is in the cypress swamp bordering the Savannah
 River, downstream from the large AEC test reactor. This swamp was left in-
 tact to separate the reactor visually from the surrounding area. Recently it
 has been demonstrated  that the  swamp is a perfect sponge,  absorbing all
 radionucleides in the waters  issuing from  the reactor. But other pathways
 need to be researched and then designed to build in effective buffers. We
 cannot assume we  will have  such a simple situation in every site.
   Second  Principle: Not  recognizing  that all organisms play a role  in
 systems  we  sometimes remove one  component (a predator) to benefit
 another component (sheep) while severely  putting out of balance the rodent
 population, so they eat the grains and  herbs to the detriment of the sheep.
 By this same attitude we could easily have deprived  ourselves of an ugly
 dirty bread  mold—penicillin!  We need to research the life cycles  of all
 organisms and to understand  better what role they are playing in the whole
 scheme of things.
   Third Principle: Knowing of the need for dry climate in the maturing  of
 dates, man brought the Ail-American Canal system to Coachella Valley and
 along with it, a climate much  less favorable for its prime cash crop, dates,
 while also bringing water for a lesser cash crop, truck farming. Thus the
 limiting factors of two organisms clashed to the detriment of the farmers' in-
 come.
  Also, not wanting to admit that where one flood has been, another will be,
we continue to build expensive structures in floodplains, then expect the
taxpayers of the Nation to  support the  construction of protective structures
to partially obviate the situation, instead of assisting people in relocation  of
these structures and development of conforming uses  of the floodplain.
  We need  to  investigate  how to  integrate man's  activities with the
processes  of existing  systems—to utilize the potential of the existing
systems,  rather than altering them beyond recognition and to our detriment.
  Fourth  Principle: Believing that we can graze as many cattle on an area of
land as can stand on the  ground, we  alter the productivity of grasslands,
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sometimes totally, so they are no longer grasslands but desert scrub. We
do the same thing with businesses and industry, believing that space is the
only determinant to carrying capacity,  not demand, critical ecosystems,
operating  ecosystem processes and neighborhood  needs. We  need to
study carefully, with a systems approach to determine the carrying capacity
of various systems for the activities we wish to impose on them. Once these
capacities are known, we need to function within them.
  Fifth Principle: Oblivious of the natural cycles of materials, we dispose of
our wastes in such places and by  such  manners  as to achieve a linear
rather than cyclic pathway for the materials. Also, since higher consumption
of energy is rewarded by lower prices per unit, we  hasten the end of fuels
by a price structure and use pattern that is against the natural energy con-
servation modes. Also, we do  not analyze how some substances move in
the system, so awaken with surprises like the release of mercury by the bur-
ning of fossil fuels.
   Knowing that such things can happen  should  alert us to tracing out all
pathways  of materials in our environment, especially such substances as
cadmium, plutonium, and arsenic that are  potentially damaging to the living
system in small quantities. Also, the pending energy crisis should propel us
to use energy in the most efficient manner possible, and to use renewable
sources over nonrenewable sources. For example, in Miami  homes that
once had solar water heaters had recently abandoned them in favor of the
"all-electric home". What a tribute to Madison Avenue!
   Sixth Principle: To accommodate mechanical harvesting devices  and
desire for crops of uniform structure and performance, we abandon systems
of diversity, only to wail and moan when  such systems are not  resilient to
slight fluctuations of climate, etc. We need to evolve systems of agriculture
that have both diversity and high performance, and are resilient  because of
their diversity.
   Seventh Principle: Forgetting the  decades,  centuries,  even millenia it
takes to develop ecosystems,  we scrape them off with abandon, only to
wonder what happened to our clear fishing streams and animal populations.
We need to be as expert at transplanting or restoring ecosystems as we are
at eliminating them. The Germans strip-mine  property and  return the
property to its owner with guaranteed 25  per cent increase in productivity.
Why can't we?
   Instituting these and many other ideas ecologists  abound with will begin
to bring man into his niche as  a member of the community of life and to
alleviate the ecological crisis. But it takes  practicing the "land ethic", using
our "ecological conscience".
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Environmental  Policy and Management
  Early efforts at managing the environment were hampered by a lack of
understanding and information regarding the ecosystem. Bettie  Willard
summarizes these problems as follows.

Compartmentalization of action and legislation:

  —forests are dealt with in Agriculture
  —fisheries are managed in  Commerce and Interior
  —soils are managed in Agriculture
  —wildlife  are  managed  in Interior
  The closest we come to managing whole ecosystems is the National Park
Service. Nor are  data integrated anywhere centrally. So little wonder we get
no holistic policy-making or decisions.
  Homogenization of application of standards, management practices, fun-
dings, with little or no recognition of the differences in processes operating
in different ecosystems, regions, communities. After all, individualization is
a basic American tradition, but we forget it frequently,  when dealing with the
environment.

  Fractionalism  of efforts to alleviate environmental  problems:
  —set air standards with little look at where pollutants will go, once cap-
tured  (perhaps to  make dirtier water or land);
  —develop water law with no concern for the fact that water is integral to
the land on which it arises and flows;
  —manage agriculture solely from a political and economic point of view,
not from the standpoint of where crops grow best and with the minimum of
disruption and expenditure of energy, money, land  resources;
  —manage resources in a linear, rather ttian a cycle fashion—tiave goods
and material always eventually destined to the junk heap and using valuable
land for that!
  —using energy  and resources as though they were infinite and eternal;
  —appropriate funds on a short-term  base for  long-term management;
then  change  horses in mid-stream, forgetting  that the objects being
managed have a longer lead-time for adaptation than we have given them.
We can all learn valuable lessons  in policy-making from systems analysis
and use of what such analysis tells us.
  In  1970 these problems were attacked and the Federal environmental
program organized and consolidated with the passage of the National'En-
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vironmental Policy Act of 1969 which defined national policy and created
the Council  on  Environmental  Policy  in  the  Executive  Office  of  the
President. Later in 1970 the Environmental Protection Agency was formed
to consolidate federal activities in pollution, solid waste disposal, pesticide
regulation and environmental radiation.
The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
  The  National  Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) established a
national environmental  policy and created the Council on  Environmental
Quality in the Executive Office of the President.
  The  major requirement  of NEPA was  that all  Federal  agencies  be
required to include in all proposals for legislation and other major activities
an environmental  impact statement summarizing the environmental  effects
of the action.  Since its inception the courts have held the environmental  im-
pact procedure is court  enforceable upon citizen  suit. The best  known
citizen action involved the proposed Alaskan pipeline.
  The  Council on Environmental Quality was established to develop and
recommend national- environmental  policy  to the President, to conduct
studies, review programs and to assist in preparation of the annual Environ-
mental Quality Report,  required by the NEPA.

Activities of the  Council on Environmental Quality


Shortly after  the  Council  was established,  the  Office of  Environmental
Quality was formed (Environmental  Quality Improvement Act of  1970) to
provide staff to the Council. Later by Executive Order the Council was em-
powered   to  recommend  priorities  in  environmental  programs  to  the
President and Federal agencies. The Council  began to  encourage  the
development and  use of environmental quality indicies and monitoring sys-
tems.
  The  Council has  been active  in  projects such as nonpolluting  power
sources  for  automobiles,  solid waste  management,  pollution control,
pesticides, control of toxic  substances, reduction of pollution by Federal
facilities and  land management.
The  Environmental Protection Agency

  EPA was established in December 1970 and  consolidated into one of-
fice  the major Federal programs dealing with air and water pollution, solid
waste disposal, pesticide regulation  and environmental radiation.  As an
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 operating  line agency,  EPA is responsible for the conduct and ad-
 ministration of Federal pollution control programs.
   EPA established national air quality standards,  established a framework
 for state establishment of emission  standards and enforces the provisions
 of the Clean Air Act. EPA also administers the 1975-76 auto emission stan-
 dards  program,  regulation   of  gasoline additives,  other  motor  vehicle
 pollution regulations and is supporting research on development of a clean
 car.
   EPA also established and  enforces water quality  standards through the
 Federal Water Pollution Control Act and the permit provisions of The Refuse
 Act and conducts air and water quality monitoring programs and research.
   Control of pesticides is maintained through the  registration provisions of
 the  Federal  Insecticide,  Fungicide and Rodenticide Act.  EPA  issued
 notices  of cancellation  of  all DDT  and  other   persistent pesticide
 registrations.
   In the area of solid waste management the Resource Recovery Act of
 1970 requires EPA to publish guidelines for construction and operation of
 solid waste systems  and to  develop methods for disposal of hazardous
 wastes.  Many open  dumps  were  closed and  replaced with improved
 disposal systems.
   Other  EPA  activities  include  cleanup of  federal facilities,  control and
 regulation of toxic substances, setting air-water ambient radiation standards
 and the study of noise pollution.  Basically, then EPA has functioned as the
 federal environmental regulatory agency.

Economic  Incentives and Regulation of Pollution

   Pollution control requires regulation and enforcement. There is growing
recognition that regulation alone,  without economic incentives is not the op-
timum  approach and  is  difficult to implement. A recent commentary by
Stanley M. Greenfield,  EPA's Assistant Administrator for  Research and
Development states the case as follows:

  A purely regulatory system leaves pollution itself cheap while effective
control is expensive. Therefore, the firm or industry or municipality which is
best able to delay having effective abatement forced  upon it will gain in the
market. Among firms in an industry,  the first to develop an effective but ex-
pensive control technique for itself risks being forced by  the regulatory
agency to apply it. Because availability and reasonableness of technology
is  determined  on a plant-by-plant basis, in legal fact if not in legislative or
administrative  theory,  the  hapless innovator is likely to find that his com-
petitors escape with much less costly actions  unless his new techniques
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are applicable and available to them; a polluter has little to gain and much
to lose by being first to develop a new, more costly technique.
  The same principles hold for industries  in an economy.  For example, if
the copper smelters develop and have forced upon them expensive control
measures, copper loses  relative to aluminum in the electrical conductor
market.
  In a regulatory system, the strongest incentive for research and develop-
ment by the polluters is the need to defend themselves against charges that
technology is  available but they are  not using it.  In  court,  an excellent
defense  is to demonstrate that major efforts are being  made  but  that
technical difficulties have not yet been overcome. This type of research and
development effort also allows  the polluters to produce a good fall-back
position: after  much work, they  can say that it is technically impossible to
reach the original control target, but they now are going ahead with con-
struction of a compromise technique which is the best currently possible.
  Until we have some measures of  true total costs and total benefits in
which we have confidence,  we really do not have a rational  basis for deter-
mining economic viability of any level of environmental quality. We certainly
do  not want to  incur costs for increments of  environmental quality  im-
provement if the incremental benefits are  less than those  costs.
  A major environmental policy issue is: How  much improvement in  the
quality of the environment does society want? The corollary to this is,  how
much will society pay to improve the quality of the environment? What will
they trade off  (and how much of it) to get  environmental  improvement?  I
believe  this issue  has to be  resolved before any comprehensive  en-
vironmental  policy can be developed.
  Neither the  total costs  nor the total benefits are developed to the point
where they  can be used to select levels  of pollution abatement or en-
vironmental  quality with confidence that the test of incremental  benefits
equalling incremental costs has been met.

  In commenting on the policy  dilemma of  providing economic incentives
within the existing  regulatory framework  Greenfield points  out  that the
regulatory process fails to

  ... use financial incentives and the mechanisms of the market  place to
encourage industry to abate rather than to  pollute because it will remain
more profitable to pollute than to  be innovative in applying  expensive
abatement technologies. How do we go about developing public policy to
change this  so that the same economic forces which  drive the economy
successfully in other areas will  work to enhance environmental quality?
                                 19

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  To approach an answer to this question, we must understand why market
forces have hitherto made it more profitable to pollute than to abate. Simply
put,  air and water until recently  have  been for  all practical purposes,
treated as free goods.  In like manner, we have considered  land and many
natural resources sufficiently plentiful or of such  little market value that we
use  land for dumps for solid wastes, toxic substances, etc.; we abandon
strip mines  without restoration,  and we encourage  the depletion of natural
resources, such as oil.  So long as this philosophy prevails, the market costs
of technological enterprise will not include the social costs of the human
and  ecological damages of pollution. So long as such costs can be "ex-
ternalized" by shifting them to others, the polluter finds it more profitable to
pollute rather than abate.
  Policies to include such costs as part of the cost of production will in-
crease the prices paid  by consumers. This will "internalize" the costs,  and
the market pricing mechanism will no longer be distorted by allowing con-
sumers to shift the pollution  externalities to other sectors of society who do
not benefit.
  At the present  time,  sulfur and auto emission taxes to complement the
Clean Air Act, and effluent fees and sewerage charges mandated under the
new water quality act, are being considered to provide market incentives for
abatement rather than  pollution. The simple  economic  logic of such ap-
proaches is  that if taxes or charges have to be paid on pollutants, and if they
are sufficiently high to make it more costly to continue to pollute than to
abate,  then there  will be a profit incentive to develop and apply abatement
technologies.
  In addition to the need to  develop the information required to determine
the appropriate structure of such tax (as opposed to subsidy) incentives,
there are two general problems which create a dilemma for EPA in develop-
ing plans to implement such a  policy. One stems from the  real fact of life
that producers and consumers  now avoiding paying the costs of pollution
will  not  willingly accept the  higher costs of  production/price  of  con-
sumption. Thus, pressure against  such incentive taxes  may  be expected
from present groups not now internalizing such pollution costs.
  A second issue arises from the fact that EPA must carry out the mandate
to abate  pollution within a  regulatory framework.
  The  mandate  requires   research,  development and demonstration
capability to carry out this mission. In a sense this is counter-productive to
the longer-range objective of providing incentives for technologically-based
enterprise to assume this responsibility  and  incorporate the total cost of
abatement into costs reflected  in market prices.
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Other Elements of Environmental  Policy
  The review of major government activities in the environment presented
above shows that the thrust of the government programs has been largely
regulatory. Other approaches to environmental management which have not
yet started to any extent but which may become increasingly important
methods for  implementing  environmental policy  include development of
economic incentives and application of technology assessment
  Certain economic incentives  have been  proposed as supplements to
regulation or as additional means of managing the environment. Tax write-
offs  and federal  assistance to  industry have been suggested to foster
pollution control.  Charges  or taxes on  pollutive  effluents or emissions,
especially backed by standards  and regulation, could provide an incentive
to industry to control  pollution.  Examples  are the gasoline lead tax and
proposed taxes on  sulfur oxides  emission.
   In many instances  the  cost  of controlling pollution will probably be
passed on to the ultimate consumer. Therefore, the public can be expected
to take  a strong interest in such proposals, if adequately informed.
  Technology assessment means  determining  the full  impact  of  new
technology,  including secondary and tertiary effects before the technology
is applied. This follows from the emerging viewpoint that the manufacturer
or industry must show that his proposed activity will produce no harmful en-
vironmental effects before he precedes. The idea is not new, but its applica-
tion  to environmental management is new.
   Such  proposed  environmental management techniques illustrate  the
need for a systems approach. Technology assessment,  by definition re-
quires a detailed  understanding of all elements of the environment in order
to accurately assess the impact of  new technology. Incentives, to be ef-
fective,  also require detailed knowledge of the environmental system and its
economics.
 Lessons Learned—An  Opposing Viewpoint
   One  of the  environmental  areas  receiving wide  attention  is that  of
 pesticides. Following Rachel  Carson's dramatic plea in "Silent Spring"
 public concern  led to greatly increased federal and  state regulation  of
 pesticides. The  use of DDT was essentially  eliminated. In the following
 discussion  Donald Spencer,  Consulting Ecologist  for  the National
 Agricultural Chemicals Association questions some of the earlier analyses
 and forecasts and points out some little-discussed potential positive effects
 of enlightened use  of pesticides.       	
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 Evidence of Declining Pesticide Residues
   Most of the tests that have been designed to shovy th£ acute and chronic
 toxicity of pesticides in water use a solution of the pesticide. In long-term,
 low-level exposure, a solution of the  pesticide is "dripped" into  a mixing
 stream on a  continuous basis, then  into the test aquaria. For example,  in
 one   well-conducted study oysters were raised from juveniles to sexual
 maturity at a constant exposure of one part  per billion of (ppb) DDT  in
 flowing seawater. By the end of the 12th week of the test, the oysters had
 acquired a body residue of 74 parts  per million (ppm), a factor of 75,000
 greater than the quantity at any one time in the seawater. The residue in the
 oyster had not changed significantly at the end of the 24th week, and by the
 end of the 36th week of continuous exposure  had  dropped back to 60
 ppmd).
  What was  observed is a common phenomenon with  DDT  and related
 chlorinated hydrocarbons. When first exposed  to the pesticide,  residue
 levels in the  body rise rather sharply, then level off  or may subsequently
 decline to a somewhat lower plateau. This is a "steady state" in which input
 is balanced by degradation and excretion of the DDT. The height of the
 body residue level will vary with the degree of exposure. After 36 weeks of
 exposure to  these very dilute solutions of  DDT (which is the maximum
 solubility of DDT in pure water) the DDT use was terminated and the oysters
 exposed only to uncontaminated seawater. In the following 12 weeks, the
 DDT residues in the oysters declined from 60 ppm to 0.16 ppm.
  The above study illustrates  the oyster's capability to accumulate DDT
 residues some 75,000 times the environmental background levels—if the
 chemical is in solution.  In December 1972, Dr. Philip A. Butler,  who  has
 been in charge of the National Estuarian Monitoring Program since its in-
 ception in 1965,  reported on  the results of  pesticide analyses in 8,095
 samples of oysters  collected from  183 permanent estuarian  sites in the
 United States, including Alaska. The maximum DDT residues detected (1.0
to 5.4 ppm)  occurred in less than 0.5 percent of the samples. The per-
 centage of samples containing negligible residues (0.01 ppm) during the
 last year (1971) as compared to earlier years increased 85 percent in 12 of
the 15 States where estuarian monitoring took place.  His  concluding
 paragraph states, "The data demonstrate that the decline in DDT residues
 in molluscs has been nearly universal on the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and
 Pacific Coasts, although beginning at different times  at different places. In
some areas DDT has disappeared from this filter-feeding level of the trophic
web within 12 months of the termination of its local use. This suggests that
 barring further input,  DDT  will disappear biologically within  one or  two
 generations of sensitive estuarine fauna."(2).
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  Given  the oyster's  ability to  accumulate 75 ppm  of  DDT from  a
background level of only 1.0 ppb,  and a finding that the highest residue in
natural populations was 5 ppm, we must conclude that most of the DDT was
precipitated out in silt and organic  matter before it reached the estuaries, or
that the silt-complexed DDT is not as available for cycling in the food web
as had been anticipated, or that it undergoes fairly rapid degradation in the
brackish  waters of the estuaries.  Regardless of  the explanation, residue
levels are declining.
  Before leaving the discussion of the declining residues of DDT and its
metabolities,  it  might prove useful to indicate supporting data from other
studies. Since 1964, the Food and Drug Administration has been recording
the pesticide residues in ready-to-eat foods. Samples of every  class of
foodstuffs were collected  from  30  markets in  28  different cities and
prepared for the table. The diet used was that of  a 16-year-old boy.  In the
period June 1969-April 1970, "the daily intake of total chlorinated organics
dropped  22 percent from  the previous reporting period (June 1968-April
1969)"(3).
  One segment  of  the   "National  Human  Monitoring  Program for
Pesticides" has now been published (4). This  activity comes  under the
Pesticide Community Studies  of  EPA which, among other projects,  has
established and maintained in 14 States epidemiology studies  by con-
tractual arrangement with  State health departments and/or  local  medical
schools.  The State of Utah,  Department of Social  Services,  Division of
Health, reports, "Mean values of total DDT in adipose tissue for the years in
which these samples were obtained  were 9.0 ppm in 1968, 7.2 ppm in
1969, and  5.3 ppm in 1970, indicating a decrease in storage levels" (5).
  The English have also been following the residue levels in human fat in
the United  Kingdom since 1963.  In  a report covering the  period 1969-
1971, published in the British Medical Journal, the following conclusions
are drawn:
"It is again gratifying to record that the mean concentrations of the three
main  organochlorine pesticides  found  in  human  fat  (in the United
Kingdom)—namely BHC, dieldrin, and  DDT—have continued to decrease
over recent years .... If the results from the latest study are compared with
those  obtained  in 1965-67, the decrease in the dieldrin content based on
the geometric means for all samples, is equivalent to about 30 percent of
the earlier value ... while the decrease for the total DDT is slightly over 20
percent of  the earlier value." (6).
  ft is difficult to reconcile the above monitoring results with the following
statement from a Report for The Club of Rome's project on the predicament
of mankind, entitled "The Limits of Growth" (7): "The graph (Figure 22, DDT
Flows in the Environment) shows what would happen if in 1970 the world
                                 23

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 DDT application rate began to decrease gradually until  it reached zero in
 the year 2000.  Because of the inherent delays in the system, the level of
 DDT in fish continues to rise for more than 10 years after DDT use starts
 declining, and the level in fish does not come back down to the 1970 level
 until the year 1995—more than two decades after the decision is made to
 reduce DDT application." I believe that the error made here was that in their
 computer programming they equated DDT with persistent chemicals known
 to have half-lives running into tens of thousands of years. For example, at
 another point in the Report the following statement appears: "We include
 only one class  of pollutants—the long-lived, globally-distributed family of
 pollutants,  such as lead,  mercury, asbestos, and stable  pesticides and
 radioisotopes—whose dynamic behavior in the. ecosystem we are begin-
 ning to understand."
   In no way can DDT and related chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticides be
 classed with lead,  mercury, asbestos,  and certain stable radioisotopes in
 terms of persistence in the environment.  DDT can be degraded by light,
 high temperatures,  chemical action, and a goodly number of fungi and bac-
 teria. I  know of no species of fish, bird or mammal that cannot at least par-
 tially metabolize and excrete DDT, although at greatly differing  rates. The
 compound  may last as short an interval as two hours in activated sewage
 sludge. On the other hand,  a soil can be so overloaded with DDT that it kills
 the very micro-organisms  on which degradation may depend.  Certainly
 when incorporated in soil  below the zone occupied by living organisms,
 and  in the  absence of oxygen, it persists for long  periods.  But the fact
 remains that it is degradable and does  not accumulate remorselessly in the
 living environment.  Had we from the outset of this era of environmental con-
 cern been able to demonstrate that, by adjusting the input of DDT, unac-
 ceptable residues in non-target species could be reduced as rapidly as the
 current monitoring programs are indicating, our regulatory programs might
 have taken a different course.
Specific Lessons Learned
  It was generally assumed that the far-flung residues of DDT found in fish
and wildlife were the result of progressive build-up of environmental levels
from 25 years of continued use. Many statements appeared warning that to
add another season's use, another pound,  might push  the residue level
 beyond a threshold where another species of wildlife might become en-
dangered. None of the monitoring programs to date that have covered a
span of years have shown any progressive build-up of environmental back-
ground  residue levels of DDT. The perfection of gas chromatography for
residue analysis, and the extension of residue monitoring beyond that of
man and raw agricultural foods, did not take place until the middle 1960's.
                                24

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We cannot document the general environmental background residue levels
of DDT and  its metabolities prior to 1965. However,  I hold the conviction,
based on more recent studies of rates of disappearance of DDT residues,
that an environmental background "steady state" had been reached by the
mid-1950's  and was being sustained at that point  by the  annual input
Please note that we are still working with residue information for 1965-
1970,  at  which time there were still fair amounts of DDT in the "user
pipeline"  in the United  States.  I look forward with  much interest to the
residue information for the period  1971-1973,  during which time  most of
the remaining uses  of DDT in the United States were phased out.
   DDT does  not  represent the type  of problems  encountered  by  all
pesticide chemicals—only a very  small  group  of related  chlorinated
hydrocarbons. The remaining 99 percent show a wide range of chemical
structure, differing one from the other in possible  effects beyond their
design purpose.   But  from our  experience  with  DDT, there are  several
valuable lessons that have applicability to future regulatory programs gover-
ning all classes of chemical contaminants.
   First: There  is need for greater understanding of, and appreciation for the
principle  of dose-related effects!
   Second: The design of tests to develop pre-registration, or pre-marketing
safety information  should take cognizance of the applicability of the data to
actual field use. For example, if the limit of solubility of a given pesticide in
water is 2 ppm, then an acute toxicity study,  in which the aquatic animal is
exposed to 20 ppm with the aid of auxiliary solvents, is merely an academic
exercise—but it will mislead and alarm the public. The highly controversial
study  conducted  at the  Bionetics Research Laboratories on  a technical
sample of the herbicide 2,4,5-T not only focused attention on a  manu-
facturing  impurity  in the  herbicide,  but introduced a  "fudge factor" in the
study by  using dimethyl sulfoxide as a solvent (8).
   Third: We have  moved too rapidly in some cases when unanticipated ad-
verse effects surfaced and  discarded  a tool before we had another to cope
with the pest  problem. A moratorium  imposed on the use of  a pesticide
whose safety  is not flawless should stipulate that the Administrator, after
careful review of the risk/benefit equation based on  an environmental im-
pact study, could  permit the use on  a case-by-case basis.
   Fourth: The regulation of pesticide  chemicals presently falls under six
pieces of Federal  legislation (Table 1). Regulation of pesticide chemicals
began as-early as 1910: In 1947,  the passage of the Federal  Insecticide,
Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act provided for registration of all  pesticide
products and set up an enforcement procedure based on labeling and con-
trol of interstate shipments. The requirements for registration specified that
the manufacturer provide.test data showing his product to be both effective
                                  25

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       Table 1. Federal Legislation Regulating Pesticides^-1973
 1)  FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL PESTICIDE CONTROL ACT OF 1972.   (Pub. Law 92-518)
        Regulates manufacture and sale.   Regulates the practice of
        formulator, distributor,  and applicator.   User can be penal-
        ized for incorrect use.   Requires very comprehensive pre-
        marketing evaluation of  product  effectiveness, safety, and
        environmental impact. Authorizes research and monitoring
        programs on pesticides.

2)  FEDERAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ACT:   Amendments  of 1972.
        (Pub. Law 92-500)
        Regulates point discharges of effluents (including pesti-
        cides).  Sets standards  for individual chemical residues
        in water.

3)  FEDERAL FOOD, DRUG, AND COSMETIC ACT:  Miller pesticide residue
        amendment of 195^.  (Pub. Law 83~5l8)
        Authorized to set tolerances for pesticides in raw agricul-
        tural products and to monitor the 'food source and seize
        products that do not conform.

4)  OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ACT OF 1972.  (Pub. Law 91-596)
        Authorized to set health  and safety standards for personnel
        during manufacturing, formulating, or  use of  toxic agents.
        Claims authority to set  re-entry time  into areas  treated
        with toxic substances.

5)  POISON PREVENTION PACKAGING  ACT.  (Pub. Law 91-601)
    CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT.   (Pub.  Law 92-673)
        Requires household products containing hazardous  pesticides
        to be packaged with a safety closure that children five or
        under cannot open.

6)  NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT OF 1969.  (Pub. Law 91-190)
        Requires all agencies conducting pest  control programs,
        whether on public lands or by cooperative agreement on
        private lands, to prepare environmental .impact statements
        before initiating action.
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and safe. This 1947 law was periodically updated and the pre-marketing
requirements  made more exacting.  The  new Federal  legislation that
amends and supplements the earlier Act are truly comprehensive and
stringent.
  The  State legislation on pesticide  regulation and associated environ-
mental quality actions form a veritable maze of controls (Table 2). The at-
tempt to legislate "safety" has now been carried  to such a length as to
justify the question, have we over-reacted?
Are Pesticides Over-Controlled?
  The  evaluation of the  safety and  effectiveness of a pesticide chemical
before it can be marketed has become so detailed and time-consuming that
if a promising new pesticide emerged from the preliminary screening trials
this morning, it would be a minimum of five years before it could be made
available for public sale. The research needed to satisfy Federal registration
will take that long. Despite this intense pre-market safety check, not enough
questions can be answered to preclude the development under subsequent
use of  some  undesirable effects. A  very necessary adjunct to the pre-
market evaluation of pesticides are the national monitoring programs. Star-
ted as a voluntary, interdepartmental Federal  program in 1964, it is  now a
required program under the Federal Environmental  Pesticide Control Act of
1972, for which the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency is
responsible (Section 20(b) and (c)). This monitoring activity supplements,
in the general environment, the pesticide residue  monitoring programs in
raw agricultural food products that have been conducted by the Food and
Drug Administration since 1954; and by the U.S. Public Health Service for
pesticide  residues  in man since 1951. Initially the broadened program in
1964 put too much reliance in the yet-developing gas chromatography, thus
quantification of a given residue was often inaccurate.  Still another  short-
coming that plagues  the monitoring program is the loss  of time—2
years—between the collection of  samples and the  publishing of results.  If
the monitoring programs are to pinpoint trouble spots, and alert us to prac-
tices that result in environmental accumulation so that the problem can be
met before a crisis arises, then prompt release of information is imperative.
  The task of the residue analyst is an exceedingly difficult one, for he must
recover not only the parent compound but also its metabolities from a wide
range of biological materials loaded with interfering  substances. He often is
forced to work in the parts-per-billion or in the parts-per-trillion range. But
what  is most disconcerting  is to  study an  excellent  piece  of  residue
analysis, then find that such inadequate  notes have been  taken when the
sample was collected as to obviate any application of the residue in-
formation. Despite its present shortcomings,  environmental monitoring is
                                 27

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Table  2.  State Legislation Augmenting  Federal Regulation of  Preticides
December 1971
                     All  50 States  and  Puerto Rico have a

                         PESTICIDE  REGISTRATION LAW



                  36 States have  established a category of

                          RESTRICTED  USE  PESTICIDES



                         21 States  have legislation

                          REGULATING  HERBICIDE USE



                         20 States  have legislation

                         LICENSING  PESTICIDE DEALERS



                         35 States  have legislation

                 REGULATING CUSTOM  APPLICATORS OF PESTICIDES



                         36 States  have legislation

                 LICENSING STRUCTURAL PEST CONTROL OPERATORS
  NOTE:  During 1972 the States enacted  into  law k] additional pieces of
        legislation bearing on pesticide  regulation.  The Federal require-
        ment for licensing of custom applicators will, of course, be
        nationwide within the next  four years.  Likewise, the Federal list
        of restricted-use pesticides will also apply nationwide.  At the
        State level the use-restrictions  can only be more stringent.
                                      28

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still one  of our most valuable tools for achieving environmental quality.
There is no completely safe pesticide, any more than there is a completely
safe lawnmower or a completely safe electrical  circuit just safe ways of
using them. A given pesticide of high toxicity may be used effectively and
with no significant adverse side effects by  limiting the amounts used, by
placement that avoids exposure of  beneficial species, by timing that ac-
complishes the same end and by formula additives that warn or repel.
Benefits From Pesticides and Chemicals
  Pest control chemicais were intended from the outset to make this earth a
better place in which to live. They are designed to assist in improving en-
vironmental quality—not to degrade it. It is not difficult to find where these
chemical tools have been incorrectly employed by intent or accident. There
will always be need for improvement. Nevertheless, the end result is that
today in the United States we have better health and  live longer than the
people who preceded us.  In the early 1900's, the corner  grocery  store
carried about 100 food items and no fresh fruit or vegetables out of season.
Now the modern supermarket carries  about 6,000 food items in  better
variety, quality, and availability throughout the year. There are more fish to
be caught in our freshwater streams  and lakes, and more wildlife than there
was 40 years ago when the new class of pesticides began to be used. I am
not saying, that because of  pesticides there is  more wildlife  today, but
neither am I discounting the  role it  plays  in our total wildlife management
programs (Table 3).
  We  have more leisure time since chemical tools have replaced much
drudgery and  wearisome toil. We have more recreational opportunities in
the great outdoors than people anywhere  else around the globe,  partly
because our advanced thechnology—which includes chemical tools—has
made it possible for us to provide ourselves with the basic requirements for
existence on fewer acres. For example, the technological package that per-
mits us to produce  more food on fewer acres (by soil conservation, im-
proved cropping procedures and irrigation, new plant varieties, new breeds
of  livestock,   sophisticated  machinery,  fertilizers  and pesticides)  has
released approximately 290 million acres that we can now use for other
purposes, such as open space, recreational areas, and wildlife refuges.
Forests and timbered tracts occupy about a third of our total land area in the
United States, Although trees are a  renewable resource, which should be
promptly harvested at some optimum stage in their growth and the area im-
mediately restocked, nevertheless we would like to be able to retain  a
significant portion  of this resource to frame our homes, shade  our parks,
furnish recreation and wilderness areas, and even become decadent and
hollow, thus providing bird and wildlife nesting sites. But lumber and pulp
                                 29

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      Table 3. Enhancement of Wildlife Population by Pesticide Use
MORE FISH IN FRESH WATERS for 25 million anglers a year to harvest.
    Fish hatchery support impossible without chemical tools.

RECOVERY OF SPORT FISHING IN THE GREAT LAKES credited to a pesticide.
    Re-build fish stocks possible after control  of Lamprey eel.

ANADROMOUS FISHERIES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE COMBACK TRAIL.
    Hatchery and rearing pond operations require chemical  tools

AQUICULTURE OF FISH AND SHELLFISH requires algal and parasite control.
    Mountain trout and catfish farming—also new mariculture operations.

MAN'S INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION IS SHARED BY WILDLIFE.   An important
    percentage of the annual food requirement of many species.

RECYCLING BROWSE THAT HAS ESCAPED BY HEIGHT GROWTH is accomplished by
    herbicides without cultivation or replanting.

ESTABLISHING AND MAINTAINING OPENINGS, BROWSEWAYS, AND  CORRIDORS by
    selective herbicide methods benefits game and  non-game animals.

PREVENTION OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION BY INSECTS AND DISEASE,  such  as-large
    scale forest defoliation and destruction, serious denuding  of
    rangelands by grasshoppers, etc.

MARSH AND WETLANDS CAN BE TOLERATED AND SAVED AS WILDLIFE  HABITAT because
    of our capability to control insect vectors  of disease for  man,
    such as the mosquito, blackflies, etc.

CONTROL OF LIVESTOCK DISEASES MATERIALLY BENEFIT BIG GAME.  Deer and
    exotic big game in Texas increased rapidly following suppression
    of the Texas cattle fever tick and the screwworm.

CONTROL OF POULTRY DISEASES AND PARASITES ALSO PROTECTS UPLAND  GAME BIRDS.
    A part of the success of the re-introduction of the wild turkey
    can be credited to lessened exposure to poultry diseases.

MARSH DWELLERS STAND TO GAIN HEALTHWISE FROM MAN'S INSECT  CONTROL PROGRAMS.
    For example, Canadian geese suffer mortality from a form of malaria,
    transmitted by a marsh mosquito.

WILDLIFE CAN BE A RESERVOIR OF DISEASE TRANSMITTED ANIMAL  TO MAN.  Because
    we have pesticides to control  the insect vectors, we are privileged
    to keep these potential  carriers of diseases around us,  such as song
    b i rds/encepha1i ti s.
                                     30

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will be in short supply by 1980. So our set-asides for the above purposes
will depend on the  success of the technological  advances recently an-
nounced by the forest  industry—that through the development  of fast-
growing, superior class trees, and improved silvacultural practices, they
can triple the  production of fiber  per  acre of commercial forest
  Similarly,  the technological package that enables us  to ship, store,
process, package and serve foods after they are harvested, with minimal
loss or lowering of quality, makes it unnecessary to employ still more acres
to make up for losses that in some  under-developed countries may equal a
third of their production. Chemicals to control fungi and bacteria which
cause  spoilage and  decay of foods are required to be  registered as
pesticides along with the better known chemicals that control insect pests
and rodents. Pesticides  do a yeoman job as  sanitizing agents in flour mill,
bakery,  retail  store,  restaurant, and in our homes.  How would we run a
hospital without them?
   Technology indirectly  releases  another huge block  of land—perhaps
another 200 million acres—and helps to conserve non-renewable resour-
ces for  the furture'by prolonging the utility of manufactured goods. In the
home many items such as rugs, draperies, overstuffed furniture, mattresses,
and clothing received some chemical assistance at the manufacturing level
against factors of deterioration  and  destruction. The housewife supplements
this with spot treatments against fabric-eating pests like carpet beetles,
silverfish, moths, roaches, and even an occasional mouse or rat She fights
mildew  and  mold. She launders these fabrics with gentle  soaps  and
detergents in  a  modern washing machine. This is a far cry from the harsh
soaps, and the repeated flailing of the wet garment on a rock at the river's
edge (as is common at the village level in India). All this means less
replacement fewer acres needed  to grow cotton, less pasture for sheep,
and less basic chemicals from wood  and oil.
   Man's technological ability is forever creating  new problems but at the
same time  it  has provided  him many choices  and opportunities  for
developing and maintaining a quality envi'ronment in which to'live. As stated
by Dr. Rene J. Dubos in  a lecture given before the American Association for
the Advancement  of Science,  "In  my opinion, the  human use of natural
resources and of technology is compatible with ecological health, and can
indeed bring out potentialities of the earth which remain unexpressed in the
state of wilderness" (9).
Conclusion
   Spencer's discussion is an excellent illustration of the common problems
of environmental management. Early perceptions and analyses of potential
persistence  of pesticides  and  entry  into the  food  chain  led to  in-
                                 31

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tensive  regulation. Now, although data are not complete  and continual
monitoring is required, Spencer sees evidence that perhaps the pesticides
were not as persistent as originally thought.
  He relates advantages of  controlled pesticide use emphasizing that
millions of acres may be released for recreational and other uses through
enlightened  management.
  He also shows that pesticides are now regulated by at least six pieces of
legislation administered  by several different agencies.
  In this example, then, we see the omnipresent need for research and in-
formation,  unifying concepts and systems analysis.
                                 32

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                  NOTES FOR CHAPTER  I
I.Lowe, Jack  I.  Wilson, Paul D. Rick,  Alan J. and  Wilson, Alfred J.
  "Chronic Exposures of Oysters to DDT, Toxaphene, and Parathion",
  Proc. National Shellfisheries Association, 61:71-79. June  1971,
2. Butler, Philip A., "DDT in Estuarian Mulluscs", Bioscience, 2.2(12): let-
  ters, 1972. (Note: Full text of the monitoring project has been ac-
  cepted for publishing in the  March,  1973  issue of the  Pesticides
  Monitoring Journal).
3. Corneliussen,  P.E.,  "Pesticide  Residues  in Total  Diet  Samples",
  Pesticide Monitoring Journal, 5(4):313-330.  March, 1972.
4. Yobs,  Anne R.,  "The  National  Human  Monitoring  Program for
  Pesticides",  Pesticide Monitoring Journal, 5(1):44-46, June, 1971.
5. Warnick, Stephen  L  "Organochlorine  Pesticide  Levels  in  Human
  Serum and Adipose Tissue, Utah—Fiscal Years 1967-71", Pesticide
  Monitoring Journal, 6(1):9-13, June, 1972.
6. Abbott,  D.  C., Collins, G. B.  and  Goulding,  R.  "Organochlorine
  Pesticide Residues in Human Fat in  the United Kingdon,  1969-71",
  British  Medical Journal,  June 3, 1972.
7. Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L. Randers,  Jorgen  "The
  Limits to Growth: A Report for  the Club of Rome's Project on the
  Predicament of  Mankind",  A Potomac Associates  Book: Universe
  Books, N.Y.
8. "Report on  2,4,5-T",  A Report of the  Panel on Herbicides of the
  President's  Science Advisory  Committee. Executive Office of the
  President, Office of Science and Technology.
9. Dubos,  Rene J., "Humanizing the Earth",  B. Y. Morrison Memorial
  Lecture, 139th Annual Meeting, AAAS, Washington, D.C., Dec. 29,
  1972.

                SUGGESTED  READING LIST

1. Buchsbaum,  R.  and  M., Basic Ecology.  Boxwood  Press, 1957. A
  telegraphic presentation of the concepts and principles of ecology.
2. Kormondy, Eugene, Concepts of Ecology. Prentice Hall,  1964. A con-
  cise statement with examples of ideas basic to ecology.
3. Leopold, Aldo, A Sand County Almanac, Ballentine Press, 1945. Con-
  cise statement of ethics and principles of environmental management,
  together with first-hand illustrations.
4. Odum,  Eugene P., Fundamentals of Ecology. 3d Ed., W. Saunders,
  1972. A basic comprehensive text on ecology.
                               .33

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2
 IMPLICATIONS OF  ZERO POPULATION
 GROWTH
 Introduction
   Our population is growing and public perception of environmental quality
 and other social problems is focused on our population growth. Public of-
 ficials at all levels of government have expressed concern and indicated a
 need for action.
   Recently the birth rate in the United States dropped to about 2.1  children
 per female, less than the replacement rate. We have, at least at this instant
 of time,  reached the magical Zero Population Growth (ZPG) rate. Even if the
 birth rate remains at or below this level for many years, we will not achieve a
 Zero  Population Growth in absolute numbers. This is  so because  the
 relative  number of young women in the population mix is large. As each of
 these women bears an average of about two  children,  the population  will
 grow. We are  also faced with  the  problem of high concentrations of
 population in urban areas. Therefore  it is likely we will experience a growth
 in population,  more intense in  urban areas,  and must deal  with an  ac-
 companying economic  growth  and  possible environmental degradation
 while we also seek to discover new approaches for improving the quality of
 life.
   The discussions of ZPG, its effect on the environment and implications for
 policy are taken from several  invited papers. Current population forecasts
 are reviewed. Graham Molitor discusses reasons for the decline in fertility
 rate.  Fred Singer concludes  that  the fertility  rate will remain somewhere
 near the present low and presents social, cultural and economic reasons for
 his conclusion. Christakis and Molitor Ji  -s the trend toward urbanization
 and review its social and economic consequences.
   The effects of population growth on the environment under conditions of
 ZPG rate are outlined by Christakis using a simple  model to illustrate the
 relationship between population,'population density and pollution levels.
   Singer discusses economic and welfare implications of ZPG, outlining a
 hoped-for  improvement in quality of life which might  be possible if the birth
 rate remains low.
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  After  reviewing the determinants of resource and environmental pres-
sures. Ridker presents the results of an analysis of the effect of population
growth and current policies on the quality of life, life style, and adequacy of
resources and-quality of the environment.
  Ridker concludes that direct methods of achieving an improved quality of
life and environment are superior to indirect methods and less specifically-
stated goals such as Zero Economic Growth and Zero Population Growth.
                                 36

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The Pressure of Population
  The world's population is currently increasing at about two percent an-
nually,  causing a doubling in population every 35 years. It took two million
years for the earth's human  population to reach the one billion mark. This
milestone was achieved in the year 1830. By 1930, merely a century later,
the world population had become two billion. If the current annual rate of
growth of world population were to continue at this pace, the earth would be
home for 12 billion human beings by the year 2030. Just seventy years after
that, in the year 2100, there would be 50 billion human inhabitants of this
small planet!
  Von  Foerster and his  colleagues calculated  an  equation describing
current worldwide trends of population growth (1). The Von Foerster data is
based  on the best estimates of world population over the past 2,000 years.
In simple form, the equation  reveals that each successive doubling of world
population has required only  half the time as the prior doubling.
  This growth  process  is characteristic only of man as a self-conscious
being.  All the advances accruing over the past forty millenia with regard to
individual capacity,  understanding, elaboration of social roles, technology,
and human well-being are mirrored in  this  increase  in population. In-
creasing population led to successive environmental crises  which served
as stimuli for their creative  resolution through the generation of concepts
that permitted linking more people into larger communication networks and
the more effective fabrication  of natural resources to meet new demands.
  Thus we are led to the conclusion that the overall  impact of increase in
numbers  has been  beneficial. But we are further led to ask the question:
"How  much longer can this trend persist?"
   For man to survive and to evolve further there must be a sudden shift in
certain aspects of the growth process. Calhoun states forcefully that: "The
guiding of man and nature through  this phase  shift stands as the basic
issue  in the presently  emerging environmental  crisis" (2). Ameliorating
pollution and stabilizing the biosphere, though they  are essential actions,
are insufficient to assure resolution  of the  current  evolutionary-environ-
mental crisis. Graham Molitor comments as follows:

   In his Population Message of July 18,  1969, President  Nixon stated:
"One of  the most serious challenges to human destiny in the  last third of
this century will be the growth of the population."
   Kenneth Boulding adds: "One of the most difficult problems facing man-
kind in the present  historical era  is the control of  its own population J" (3).
Boulding refers to "population equilibrium" as a critical unsolved problem.
                                 37

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   The President also attributed the wrenching dislocations in coping with
 problems in the last few decades to the geometrical growth of population
 during  the  last half century: "I believe that many of our present social
 problems may be related to the fact that  we have had  only fifty years in
 which to accommodate the  second hundred  million Americans." (4).
   These  remarks  underscore the importance  of  current  population
 pressures.  In  responding  to  the  importance  of the  issues posed by
 population growth, a Commission on Population Growth  and the American
 Future was  established by Act of Congress and signed  into law on March
 16,  1970.
   The studies published by this Presidential Commission articulate, quan-
 tify,  and realistically describe the  seriousness  and pervasiveness of the
 world  population  problem.  The  ultimate  conclusion  reached  is  that
 population growth (and perhaps economic growth) must  halt because of
 finite resources—the only questions are "when, where,  and how." (5).
U.S.  Population Forecasts

  The latest population forecasts for the United States, as estimated by the
Department of Commerce, are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1 (6). Forecasts
are made for four assumed fertility rates as shown in the Figure. The fertility
rates  have  been revised  downward since previous forecasts due to sharp
declines in fertility since  1970 and to the sharp  decline in the  birth ex-
pectations  of young wives during the past five years. Assumptions for mor-
tality rates have been revised slightly and net immigration is assumed to be
400,000 per year.
  The assumption of lower fertility rate appears to be justified by recent ex-
perience. For the first nine months of 1972 the rate fell to 2.03. This rate is
below the replacement rate—the rate at which children must be born for the
population  to  maintain   itself.  This does not  mean,  however,  that the
population  can be expected to level off or be  reduced in the near term. The
relative number of young women in the population mix is high, therefore the
population  will continue to grow for some time. For example, at a constant
bhih rate of 2.1,  the population would grow from the present 210 million to
320 million in 70 years, then level off. At a rate of 1.8, the population would
grow  to 260 million in 50 years, then  level off. Thus, although the United
States is experiencing a birth rate equal  to or less tharr a Zero  Population
Growth rate at this instant in time, we will experience a population growth
for  some time to come.
                                38

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Millions of Persons
     350-
     300-
     250-
     200-
FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS
 (Average Number of
  Bi rths Per Woman)
  Series C = 2.8
  Series D = 2.5
  Series E = 2.1
  Series F = 1.8
       1972
       1980
1990
 I
2000
2010
                                                                   2020
 Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce Series P-25,  No.  493,  December  1972
           Figure 1.  Projections of Total Population: 1972 to 2020
                                  39

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Table 1. Summary of Projections of Total Population: 1960 to 2020. (Population in thousands. Total
population including Armed Forces abroad)
Year
(July 1)
Estimates
I960 	
1965 	
1970 	
1972 	
Projections
1975 	
1980 	
1985 	
1990 	
1995 	
2000 	
2005 	
2010 	
20 1 5 	
2020 	

Series C




215,872
230 955
248 71 1
266 238
282,766
300 406
321 025
3/fIj ,fJ94
367 977
392 030

Series D
180,
194,
204,
208
215 32k
228 676
243 935
258 692
272 21 1
285 969
301 397
318 156
•Z7C 028
•jci -568

Series E
67]
303
879
837
213 9.25
224 132
235 701
jkf, 6-?q
256 015
264 4?0
273 053
281 968
oqn I»a9
£yv jfp^
707 -jl-f.
t-Jl , /to
Series F




213 378
221 848
230 9M
O7Q nfiil
245 591
5 en (tftfi
occ onq
t-jy i^-vy
ocq •s^o
•)(.•) (C^l
9Ai» c;A/i

                                           40

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Determinants of Population Growth


  The basic determinants of population growth are three: birth rate, death
rate and net migration. Graham  Molitor comments as follows:
  Of these three factors, by far the least stable is birth rate. During the past
half-century the United States, as well as other countries, has achieved a
fairly constant death rate, based on decreasing infant mortality rates and
relative stability of life-spans.  The U.S.  Census  Bureau  estimates net
migration for the U.S. at approximately 400,000 per year.
  The  birth rate of the United States and other industrialized  countries,
then, emerges as  the single  most important variable in forecasting future
growth, as well as in selecting means to control future population.

The U.S. Birthrate

    The factor determining a nation's birth rate is the fertility rate found
within its population. The fertility rate in the U.S. has been steadily declining
as shown in Figure 2.  Graham  Molitor lists reasons for this decline, as
follows.
   —more young women staying single;
   —more women starting families later;
   —more working wives ("when women are able to work,  birth rates
     decline");
   —more women careerists (in 1971  women accounted for some 43 per-
     cent of the labor force; in 1960 the figure was 34 percent);
   —increased use and effectiveness of contraception;
  Expanding on these  reasons  Molitor states that a wide variety of ad-
ditional natural and artificial constrictions on family size provides afuller un-
derstanding of this downward shift:
  1. Child bearing capacity: Women can bear children for some 30 years
     (ages  15 through  45) and  may  give  birth to a maximum of ap-
     proximately 20 children (7). Few women, however, produce maximum
     broods. Cultural and economic inhibitions and the tendency to marry
     later deter maximum sized families. Modern "fertility drugs" and; the
     side-effect of multiple births could raise this level somewhat. In other
                                 41

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 CHILDREN
 PER WOMAN
  6  u
  3 -
2 -
1 -
0 -

i i i I I I l I
1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
 Figure 2. Historical Trend in U.S. Fertility Rate (SOURCE: "Population and
.the American Future: The Report of the Commission on Population Growth
 and the American Future," March 1970.)
                                 42

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  words, social variables, rather than biological factors, tend to constrict
  birth rates.
    Techniques for bypassing one mate or the other must be consid-
  ered:
      —children  conceived  by  artificial  insemination  (anony-
         mous  or selected  semen donors);
      —surrogate  (host)  mothers  (ovum and  sperm  from anony-
         mous  or selected  donors).
    Also to be factored are new life science developments  that may
    completely bypass  normal reproduction:
      —human clone (humans grown from "cuttings");
      —extra-uterine  developments  ("ectogenesis,"  human  "hat-
         cheries");
      —artificial  wombs;
      —creation  of artificial life forms.
2. Females  in  child-bearing age bracket.  Women in the prime child-
  bearing age group—females age 20-34—bear special attention, since
  4 of each 5 babies born come from this group. Some 25 million women
  will be in this age group in  1975; the number will grow to some 30
  million women by 1985. The Commission on Population  views prime
  childbearing ages at 20-29 and predicts that this group will grow 5 1/2
  million by 1985.  Such increases would  exert even stronger upward
  pressure on population growth (8). This  projected  20 percent growth
  pattern will have  an upward pressure on population growth.
3. Number of marrieds.  The number of married couples is another factor
  bearing on population trends. The size of this group "is expected to
  rise from 42.3 million in  1965 to  51  million in 1975 to 60 million in
  1985" (9). This increase of nearly 50 percent will add to potentials for
  population growth. Currently there  are  unusually large  numbers of
  young men and  women, a result of the post war "baby boom."  Naturally
  the number  of  marriages and  household formations has been  in-
  creasing.  Despite these facts, the birth rate has been declining and
  has actually reached the  lowest point in our history.
4. Sexual permissiveness. The  "sexual revolution"  and growing per-
  missiveness in  sexual relations and  cohabitation between consenting
  adults could significantly affect population  growth.  Women's new
  sexual permissiveness made possible by more effective  and simpler
  contraceptives,  sterilization, abortion,  and other new technologies en-
  courages  sex  for pleasure  rather  than propagation.  Widespread
  availability of inexpensive and effective contraceptives should netralize
  the  overall impact of sexual  permissiveness  on population  growth.
                                43

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  More permissive attitudes towards homosexuality and lesbianism also
  may have some incremental effect on subduing population growth.
5. Age at first marriage.  Putting marriage off to later  life provides fewer
  years for married couples to conceive children and the potential for
  population growth is reduced. The higher proportion of children going
  on to college and  military service obligations contribute to marriage
  postponment. Between 1956 and  1967 the median age for marriage
  rose from 20.1  to 20.8 years for females, and 22.5 to 23.1 years for
  males (10). More current Census  figures indicate  continuation  of the
  trend toward postponed marriage—between  1960 and 1972, the
  median age at first marriage for women rose from 20.3 to 20.9 years,
  and the proportion of single (never married) among women 20 to 24
  years old rose from 28 percent to 36 percent  (11).
6. Childless  couples. The  number of  childless couples has  been
  declining.  In  1940 23 percent of married  women age 30-34 were
  childless; by 1960 the proportion dropped to 10 percent and then to 6
  percent in 1968 (12). This  has  an obvious  impact on population in-
  crease.
7. Unwanted births.  Portending further decrease  in the "replacement
  rate" is the fact some 20 percent of current births are "unwanted." The
  1965 National Fertility Study speculated that "elimination of unwanted
  births would result in fertility levels ultimately commensurate with near-
  zero growth" (13). Given increased acceptance and availability of con-
  traceptives and other "emancipating" techniques, it is highly likely that
  the fertility rate  will decline still further.
  7a.  Unplanned  births.  I he  Population Commission not  only
      estimated up to one-fifth of all births were unwanted but that
     fully  44  percent  were  unplanned.   If   contraceptive
     technology applies to anything approaching this extent, the
      results on population growth will be most significant.
  7b. Illegitimate births.  Growing in  seriousness and importance
     is illegitimacy. In  1967 some 4.5 million children under 18
     years were illegitimate.  A study in the District of Columbia
     disclosed in 1970 that  over 40  percent of all  births were
     illegitimate,  and projected the figure would  reach 50 per-
     cent by 1973.  Rates of illegitimacy among young  women
     ages 15-19 increased 2-3 times between 1940 and: 1968,
     Legalized  abortion,  effective sex education  and con-
     traceptive  technologies  doubtless  would substantially
     reduce these demographics.
                                44

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   7c. Birth expectations. Wives in the 18-24 year bracket expect
      to have fewer births. The average dropped from 2.9 in 1967,
      to 2.4  in 1971, to 2.3 in 1972 (14). This decline is a con-
      tinuation of a downturn in birth expectations of young wives.
      The changed attitude toward smaller families has an impor-
      tant bearing on the population slowdown.
8. Smaller  family  size.   Family size  has  been steadily  downtrending
  throughout  the  course  of  history.  During  the  period  of agrarian
  development, family size was much larger. At that time high infant mor-
  taility  rates  encouraged additional  births, as did  the need for manual
  labor  to  perform  labor-intensive work in the fields. The 5 member
  family was not uncommon. At the time of the Revolutionary War,  the 8-
  child family was common; in  1850  family size dropped to 6; then to 4
  by 1900. Children born to couples  in the 1930's averaged 3.3. In 1968
  American families averaged 2.7  children.  Today  in post-industrial
  America we are down  to the 2 child family. These trends have obvious
  effects on population  decline.
9. Abortion. Legalizing abortion and  widespread social acceptance and
  legal recognition thereof will decrease the number of likely births. Con-
  tinuing to grow is  the notion a woman should have the right of control
  over her body. Free abortion in Hungary, reportedly,  contributed to the
  negative zero population  growth  in that country.  Since 1968 the
  estimated number of recorded  abortions has increased impressively
  (15).

             Year                      Number  of Abortions
             1968                            18,000
             1970                           200,000
             1971                           400,000

  The Commission on Population  estimates in  1971 between 200,000
  and 1,200,000  abortions  were performed  in the  U.S. Some  com-
  mentators view "therapeutic abortions" as an increase in the freedom
  of the mother (16). True.  But, moral questions surrounding freedoms of
  the person  conceived must also be  considered.
10. Divorce. Marriages that stay together have an important bearing on
  population  increases.  In the first 9 months of 1972, the divorce rate
  stood at 4.0 per 1,000 Americans,  close to the highest rate which ever
  occurred in the  U.S.—4.3 persons per 1,000 (17). A related question
  concerns remarriage after divorce.  Remarriages are far more prevalent
  among males than females.
                                 45

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 11. New lower Census projections. Lower birth rate trends have been of-
  ficially recognized by Census action in dropping Series B projections
  (assumed fertility rate of 3.1) and addition  of the  new Series F tract.
  Hard times like the Great Depression  or involvement in World War II,
  which depressed  birth rates to all-time  historical  lows,  are un-
  derstandable. What is truly extraordinary about the  present all-time
  historical lows for birth rate is that it is  occuring during a period of un-
  precedented  prosperity. Many factors, especially those enumerated
  above, should be  watched closely to  track  this trend. Should trends
  continue  in  their  present direction,   the U.S.  will  have  entered  a
  population stabilization or  even negative population growth rate.

 The United States Death Rate
  In terms  of  historical life  expectancy, those of us living today are a
 privileged  group of individuals.  Before the birth of Christ, life expectancy
 was a mere 18 years. In the United States in 1970 life expectancy has been
 extended to 70 years. In less than 2,000 years man has quadrupled his life
 expectancy. The following is taken from Graham Molitor's paper.
  The following tabulation indicates life expectancy increases in recent
 history:

 Year                              Life Expectancy
 B.C.                               18 years
 A.D.                               22
 1200                              33
 1600                              33.5
 1800                              35
 1850                              40.9
 1900                              49.2
 1946                              66.7
 1960                              70.0

  It  is contemplated that average life expectancy will continue to climb,
though at a slower rate. By the end of the century it could climb 1 1/2 years.
 Major  breakthroughs in medical sciences could substantially increase this
estimate. The prospect  of people living longer  has  an obvious direct
bearing on further population increases.
                              Geriatrics
  Because of the increased number of older persons, due partly to  greater
life expectancy, public policy  is likely to focus increasingly on degenerative
diseases manifested in later life.  Life expectancy increases will come about
                                 46

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due in part to development of major medical advances.
  A  wide range of exotic  bio-engineering possibilities for extending
longetivity, rejuvenating  or even  postponing aging follow:

  —Discovery of a cure for cancer, heart disease and other major diseases;
  —Better understanding and control of possible health hazards,  such as;
    smoking,  heart disease, air  pollution, traffic fatalities;
  —Improving medical systems including  (computer monitoring of patients;
    computer assisted  hospital  care;  closed circuit TV surveillance of
    patients);
  —Development of immunizing agents  protecting against bacterial and
    viral diseases;
  —Widespread use, low cost availability of artificial organs;
  —Easily available electromechanical implants;
  —Renewal of organs  by chemical, hormonal balance;
  —Growing new organs to replace old  ones, then storing or "booking"
    them until needed;
  —Artificial hearts (implanted machines which will not be rejected);
  —Postponing aging;
  —Human  hybernation;
  —Suspended animation.
  Political problems posed by such exotic developments are substantial.
 How to control rackets in transplantable organs; how to determine  the point
 at which a host full of implants or external assists, or artificial organs ceases
 as a legal entity and becomes a new person; how to determine when a per-
 son  is legally dead, how to  determine  inheritance rights,  continuity of
 marital contract, responsiblity  for legal contractual arrangements; how to
 allocate medical equipment when it is  scarce  and so expensive  as to be
 unavailable to all but the rich; how to decide when to unplug persons from
 life-sustaining machines if the  decision means certain death;  how to view
 euthanasia.
  Potential advances in medical science are  mindboggling.  Man stands
 close to the threshhold  of breakthroughs which will have a major impact
 upon  increasing life expectancy. Breakthroughs of the kinds  enumerated
 will have a profound effect upon population pressures in the future.
                          Infant Mortality
  In recent years, the U.S. has ranked 16th in infant mortality. This  is not an
 enviable position for the "most advanced" nation in the world. Once such
 quantifiable data is adduced and room for improvement becomes  obvious,
these facts become a force for change in their own right. We can expect in-
creased efforts by the Federal government to  reduce  infant mortality.
                                 47

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                      Life Expectancy Factors
   Measuring all the factors which bear on life expectancy is an extremely
difficult undertaking.
   To underscore the complexity and subtlety of the kinds of data which are
necessary to get a "total  view"  of such  parameters,  consider the partial
listing of factors which might give a more sophisticated and holistic view of
the national health and provide insights on the calculus of computing life
expectancy: heart disease incidence; protein consumption; fat and sucrose
consumption; caloric consumption;  cancer incidence; poisonings; levels of
radiological hazards; environmental  hazards  (toxic levels of gases,  etc);
decibel levels; infant mortality; preventive health rates; violent crimes; men-
tal  health average exercise;  dental  health;  number of  eye glasses and
related  eye disorders; consumption of selective drugs.
   Such a list could go on and on. It is only partially elucidated to indicate
the very complexity fully describing the nature of any particular facet of
qualitative measurement. We already have volumes of  such data. We need
merely to collect it, aggregate it, interpret it,  and develop a through-going
and searching assessment of our current position  based upon this quan-
tifiable data.
                          Net  Immigration
   Net immigration into the United States is expected to continue at present
levels of about 400,000 per year, according to the Census Bureau and im-
migration officials. The  demographic impact  of immigrants is important
because a  high  percentage of immigrants are in child-bearing prime and
may be more likely to have larger families. From 1960-65, net civilian im-
migration averaged 364,000 yearly—twice the average of the 1940-9 era
Around  1900, immigrants per TOGO population stood at eight; around 1970
the rate had sunk to two immigrants per 1000 population—a fourfold reduc-
tion. Immigration is likely to be stabilized for the forseeable future—Con-
gressional action to enhance immigration is less likely than action to restrict
immigration.

Will the U.S.  Maintain a ZPG Birth Rate?

  Singer believes that the present  low  fertility- rate  is not a temporary
phenomenon but  is a permanent  change  in  the  family pattern of our
population.  The  sociological, economic and  technical reasons, given by
Singer are  discussed, below.
                                 48

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  First of all, there is the increasing level of education which, in addition to
allowing more effective contraception, also opens up to women other op-
portunities and other  career goals  rather than that  of a  housewife  and
mother.
  Coupled  with  this is  the  greater  affluence of  the  average American.
During 1972 the median family income exceeded  $10,000 per year, com-
pared to $3300 in 1950. Even taking inflation into account, real income has
more than doubled in a little  more than 20 years. The proportion of families
considered  poor by  the criteria  that the  U.S.  government uses  has
decreased sharply;  from  18  percent  in 1959 to 10 percent in 1968,  and
may be expected to decrease further.
  Not only has family income increased, but  so has the income of women.
To a large  extent the changes  have been legal and  political  as well as
cultural and social. Rights legislation, the Equal Employment Opportunities
Commission,  and  increasing acceptance of women  into higher paying
positions have had two effects. They have increased the income of women,
but also opened up new prospects and increased expectations. Since large
families and professional careers are not easily compatible, it is very likely
that the incentive for larger families will be  reduced.
  A further change which appears irreversible has been the increased ur-
banization of  the American  population.  In  a rural environment the  in-
cremental costs  of  children  are fairly small  since they  require little ad-
ditional  housing, and  purchased food.  In an  urban environment, housing
and maintenance can become quite costly. In a rural environment children
provide a labor force—or at least did in past years in the United States, and
still do  in many  countries. In the city, children do not have economically
useful functions  and usually need to be totally supported.
  Increased social programs, such as social  security and medicare for the
aged, have removed to some extent the insecurity which many people feel
concerning their maintenance in  old age.  In turn, this diminishes the need
for children and  other relatives who in the past have provided support for
their parents.
  A lower  infant mortality may  also be  connected with  a lower fertility.
Having  reasonable assurance  that  children will survive  to  adulthood,
couples place less emphasis on a large family.
  Altogether  there  has  been a decline in pronatalist  sentiments  and
policies. Whereas at one time large families were the source of general
societal approval, this is no  longer so.  Families with  six or more children
are looked  on as somewhat odd, and those  with  more than 10 or 12 are
regarded with  social disapproval. Unfortunately these social views have not
as yet translated themselves into governmental  policies.  For example, we
still have a pronatalist tax .policy, although it is only mildly so. More serious,
                                 49

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 perhaps, is the fact that the costs of raising children are borne more and
 more by society as a whole, rather than being incident on the parents who
 derive pleasure from the child but few of the disbenefits.
   We need to recognize,  of course, that fertility may be determined to a
 large extent by fashions and fads.
   One wonders to what extend our current environmental and ecological
 concerns are  responsible for a lower fertility  and to what extent the
 existence of ZPG groups  throughout the  country has  influenced fertility.
 Such a  correlation may exist,  but it is  not  necessarily rational. The en-
 vironmental and ecological concerns may translate themselves into a lower
 fertility because of a perception that we have too large a population. This is
 based on experience of local crowding, on air pollution and water pollution
 which is observed in the urban environment, and on the rapid urbanization
 of  countryside  in  the vicinity  of  metropolitan  centers. Traffic  snarls,
 inadequate parking, and similar annoyances produce an impression that we
 have at least exceeded optimum  population concentrations for portions of
 the United States. We may have, but on the other hand, we may not have. All
 these items are  really evidence of a poor distribution of population, of poor
 planning, expecially in the field of transportation and  land  use, and of
 inadequate abatement of pollution.
   But whether the arguments are rational  or not matters little. The  effects
 may be there, and they are certainly in the direction of diminishing fertility. A
 powerful impulse towards smaller families comes from the awareness of en-
 vironmental  and ecological problems, as well as from the realization that
 certain  resources, such as fossil fuels,  open space,  wilderness  areas,
 beaches, etc.  may be  finite after all.
  Overall, one  would  judge that there  have now appeared  irreversible
 trends which have affected the decisions of millions  of individuals towards
 having smaller families. These decisions  are based on the expectation that
thereby they will derive a higher  quality of life, although their definition of
 "quality of life" is never spelled out and depends on individual perception.
 Nevertheless,  it is remarkable that the sum total of these millions of in-
dividual  decisions  can  result in -a  societal  situation leading to  zero
 population growth and a situation in which societal welfare as well will be
 benefited—in addition  to individual welfare. In essence, people who are at-
tempting to maximize their personal happiness may in the process also im-
prove the state of  societal  economic and social welfare.
                                  50

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Urbanization of Population
  Christakis points out another dominant trend that needs to be seriously
acknowledged.  This  is the dynamic  evolution of  human  settlements into
continuous urban systems. Some observers, such as C.A. Doxiadis, believe
that  urban  areas  may  merge  into  a  continuous  universal  city or
"Ecumenopolis":
  "(Ecumenopolis) is the inevitable future of Human Settlements in the
  next few generations, as we can foresee that, assuming we avoid any
  major catastrophe,  we will have to deal with a  universal  city whose
  population will tend to be stable in numbers but increasingly more
  developed intellectually and  socially, which  will dispose  of much
  greater quantities of energy and achieve greater social interaction"
  (18).

 The trend towards the Ecumenopolis is particularly dominant in emerging
 post-industrial societies such as the United States. The metropolitan area
 growth of the United States has been consistently  more rapid than  the in-
 crease of national population during the 20th century. Measured as a per-
 centage of national population, metropolitan areas in 1960  contained 66
 percent of the nation's population. By  1970 this percentage had increased
 to 71 percent of the national total. This meant that the United States was
 transformed from a country that was 60 percent rural in 1900 to one that
 was more than  70 percent urban in  1970.  By the year 2000, based on
 trends of  1940-1970, 85 percent of the nation's population is projected to
 reside in  major  metorpolitan areas.
  The most startling feature of projected population growth and distribution
 is that the majority of Americans will most likely live in giant metropolitan
 regions along the seaboards and the Great Lakes. In  1960, the  United
 States contained 23 great metropolitan areas of one million or more people,
 each amounting to a total  population of 68.2 million—38 percent of the
 national total population. The 1970 census reveals that the number of such
 metropolitan  areas  has  risen  to  29  and  the  population residing  in
 metropolitan  regions to 89.3 million or 44 percent of the national  total.  If
 these trends are extended to the year 2000, the proportion of the population
 residing in metropolitan regions of one million or  more will  amount to 65
 percent (under the series B projection of the U.S. Bureau of the Census,
 amounting to 321 million people by the year 2000),  residing in 50  such
 targe urban agglomerations.
                                  51

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Effects of Urban Overpopulation
   In discussing the effects of urban overpopulation, Molitor says there is a
 growing body  of evidence that animal  overcrowding produces psychotic
 behavior. Fruit flies do over populate to extinction in Bell jars; lemmings do
 take periodic death  plunges into the seas.

   Sheer density has undersirable effects on social behavior. In dense ur-
 ban-industrial areas, behavioral responses to  overcrowding may help ex-
 plain exploding criminal behavior, increasing  group disorganization, even
 the growing incidence of  mental disorders.  Instead of a "nice to have
 luxury," there may be a biological necessity to relieve urban  environmental
 pressures and  to restore (19):

   —quiet (freedom from excessive noise pollution);
   —privacy (limits on invasion  by electronic surveillance, systematic com-
     puterized data collection,  etc.);
   —independence (mechanisms to  relieve system breakdown from over-
    dependence);
   —initiative (constricted by the mob's crush);
   —open space (green belts,  recreation areas).

   Population policy is increasingly becoming a public concern. Population
 policy once largely left to undirected decisions  is "now on the verge of
 becoming a public concern, as a result of the dangers of overpopulation
 and the possibilities  of avoiding them that are  inherent in new birth control
 technologies" (20). One of the  central problems  is that there is no precise
 method of determining  "optimum population."
   Though environmental hazards posed by urban-industrial  density are
 substantial,  caution should  be taken  to avoid over-reacting. Current mood
 and sentiment verges on an "alienation hysteria" (21). The Population Com-
 mission  final report cautions -that,  "An attitude of indifference  of com-
 placency (toward population growth) is unwarranted; so is the cry of early
 catastrophe  and crises."
   Christakis summarizes changes in life style brought about by the shift to
 urban  living. He states that urbanization  has  caused major economic,
 social, and  environmental  changes  for both  the receiving  metropolitan
areas and the people  left behind. As recently as the turn of the century,
some 35 percent of America's workers were involved in  agriculture.  Today
only 4.4 percent of the labor- force is employed  in  agriculture and that figure
is  projected to  decline  to two percent by the  year 2000. Employment in
goods-producing industries  such as  manufacturing, construction,  and
                                 52

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mining has  also been  continuously declining  relative  to  the  total  em-
ployment since the 1950's  when the post-industrial  or  service economy
emerged. Around 1956,  the service-producing  industries (trade, finance,
services,  real estate, public utilities, transportation, and government) took
the lead over jobs in the goods-producing industries. When this happened,
the U.S. became the first nation in the history of the world where the number
of manual or blue-collar workers was exceeded by  the so-called white-
collar occupations.  It appears that the policy implications of  this  shift have
not yet been completely analyzed  and explored by policy scientists.
  The continuous eclipse of traditional industrial pursuits, i.e., agriculture
and manfacturing, and the rise of the service-producing industries within a
continuously growing metropolitan  population,  bring  on a whole array of
significant shifts that will  profoundly affect the business structure, our daily
life styles, and our value systems. Some of the basic shifts that are well  un-
der way are:

  • From primary and secondary industries (agriculture/manufacturing) to
    tertiary  and quaternary  industries (service,  knowledge  activities).
  • From goods to services.
  • From goods/services produced by muscle power to those produced by
    machines and  cybernetics.
  • From the materialistic to the sensate.
  • From "things"  to experiences.
  • From physiological  to psychological needs.
  • From scarcity to abundance and eventually to  super abundance.
  • From a  few stark choices to a bewildering  array of  choices.
  • From durability to disposables and planned obsolescence and back to
    recyclables, reclaimables.
  • From self-interest motivation to  a broader social and  humanitarian out-
    look.
  • From independence and self-sufficiency to  interdependence.
  • From individual freedom, to voluntary restraints, to mandatory restraints.
  • From Puritan hard-work ethic to leisure as a matter of  right.
  • From Darwinian self-survival to humanistic security.
  • From atomistic  to large-scale pluralistic institutions.
  • From national to multi-national  and "one-world"  scale operations.
  • From decentralization to centralization and eventual globalization.
  • From irrational  chaos to futures-creative long range planning.
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Can Man Adapt to Urban Living?
   Molitor believes that living organisms and  even man-made institutions
 have a tendency to specialize and proliferate to the point where extreme
demands bring  on  ultimate demise—entrophy.  Catastrophic collapse
brought about by over-population, or any other excess, can be postponed
or avoided altogether by adaptation. Adaptability—thai has been the secret
of man's mastery over the environment.
   On the European Continent during the 14th century, as large urban cities
emerged and grew, the Bubonic Plague wiped out some 25 percent of the
entire  inhabiting population  (22). Man was  unprepared. Adapting  the
human  organism to  large  social complexes  tested the  mettle of then-
existing technology and organizational skills. The stakes, literally, were life
or death. Man did adapt  Sanitation and  public  health  measures were
developed and prevented epidemic spread of communicable diseases.
   Natural growth limits for organisms depend upon the ability of getting rid
of wastes—"this is what limits the size of a  colony of bacteria on a nutrient
surface" (23).  In urban-industrial complexes  limitations  are similar. Ad-
justment is necessary  if large-scale populations in  urban  industrial areas
are to thrive.
   Today, new adjustments to  the giant-sized urban industrial habitats man
has created are required. There are suggestions that man's physical health
may be jeopardized  by ecological  imbalances  in overly-stressed en-
vironments.
   Man is what  he consumes,  and he consumes (24, 25):

   —3  pounds  of food  solids;
   —4  1/2-6 pounds of water;
   —30-60 pounds of air.

Substantial changes in urban  air and the water supplies have come about
since the industrial period onward. Considerable evidence indicates that
physical health  itself may be imperiled by changes in the air we breathe, the
water we drink,  and the new environment. The peril will increase  and unless
appropriate corrective measures are taken, over-population and over-indus-
trialization may  over-tax ecologically balanced systems.
   Developing knowledge suggesting population density may create disrup-
tive social and psychological stresses, and that confrontations with air and
water pollution  are becoming  increasingly hazardous, may be evolutionary
handwriting on  the wall.
   One commentator suggests  that genetic science may provide a means for
"fitting men" to the environmental conditions—"fitting of the survivors," in-
stead of  survival  of the-flffest  (26). Thus, instead  of aiming our efforts at
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changing environmental factors, science and public policy could accept en-
vironmental circumstances and merely adapt man to cope with his changing
environment.  In all likelihood, both adaptation of the human organism and
environmental adjustments will  be required for survival.
   Buckminster Fuller poses the following statistics  implying man's num-
bers are manageable and that the population explosion is overstated (27):

   —man lives in "scattered patches covering less than 5 percent of the
    earth's surface";
   —"all the cities of our planet cover sum-totally less than 1 percent of the
    earth's surface";
   —megalopolises cover less than one-half of 1 percent of the earth's total
    surface."

Dramatically  making his  point,  Fuller contends that as of  1965,  "all
humanity could be  brought indoors  in the buildings of greater New York
City, each  of us with as much  floor  room as  at a cocktail party."
   That is one cocktail party I hope to miss!
   Census  Bureau  domestic calculations  based on  the  1970  Census,
estimate distributing U.S. population  equally over all 50 states would result
in a density  of about 57  persons  per square mile. Similar calculations
based on 1960 data estimated  50.6  ,  •      per square mile.  New Jersey
with 953.1  persons per square  mile was the most densely populated state;
Alaska, with  some  2 persons  per  square  mile was  the  least densely
< populated (28). Population density based on 1970 Census data for all ur-
banized areas (central cities over 50,000 population)  was 3,376 persons
per square mile (29).
   Regardless of the validity of these statistics, they underscore the point
that urban density is the real crisis point. In this respect, the most populous
metropolitan areas in the world—Shanghai (10 million), Tokyo (8.8 million),
New York (7.9 million), Peking (7.5 million),  and London (7.4 million)—are
the cauldrons of change. The full force and effect of population implosions
in these areas  should be carefully studied to  ascertain  prospects for
mankind. As other areas reach similar size and density,  they should be able
to benefit from experience in these  precursor jurisdictions.

Environmental  Effects of Population Growth


   From the information presented in the previous section, it is clear that the
U.S.  population will  continue to grow,  even if the birth rate remains at or
below the ZPG rate. Further, shifts in the regional population distribution,
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especially moves to urban areas, will create urban and regional population
pressures. As the national and regional populations grow and change, the
respective economics will grow and change.
  The resource and environmental consequences of a growth in population
and  economy are  not  totally predictable. The  state of the science of
demographics is such that we are not certain to what extent, and in what
directions. The U.S. population and economy will grow, especially over the
long-run. As we  have seen, there  is considerable evidence that the nation
has achieved a ZPG rate, though this is offset by other factors, such as the
high incidence currently of young women capable of bearing children. Fur-
ther, should a ZPG rate be achieved, can it be maintained?
  Nevertheless,  it is possible to arrive at close approximations of the effect
on the environment—particularly on the nation's natural resources—of any
specified growth pattern. Given the assumption, then, that the U.S. is about
to experience, or has experienced already a ZPG rate, what can be said
about its effect on the environment?

A Classical Model for  Environment and Population

  Christakis presents a simple classical model of the environmental impact
of population and concludes, from  study of the  model,  that uncontrolled
growth can cause serious environmental damage  even under conditions of
ZPG.  One of the  principal reasons  for this conclusion is population density,
i.e.,  urbanization.  He also discusses results  obtained  by analysis  with
another model.

  Christakis'  model is developed  from a relationship of the form (30).

                             W = APq                              (1)
where
      W = pollutants emitted  during  a period
      P=total population of a geographic  entity
      q = per capita output
and   A = a proportionality constant.

  To transform the quantity W to a spatial concentration  C of pollution, or
what is normally known as pollution levels, one must introduce the volume V
of the medium in which the wastes are placed. One also needs to take into
account the natural ability of the environment to cleanse  itself through
various biochemical processes. Hence, the rate of change in concentration
at a point in time t will be the sum  of what is added to the environment and
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what is subtracted because of the cleansing,  i.e.,

                           dC/dt=(W/V)-rC                         (2)

where r is the rate at which the particular medium cleanses itself. By in-
tegrating Equation (2) and setting the integration constant equal to K one
obtains, after substitution  from Eq. (1),

                  C = (APg/Vr)(1-exp(-rt)) +  K exp(-rt)               (3)

The adverse environmental impacts, or damage D, can be considered as a
function of concentration C, i.e.,

                               D = f(C)                             (4)

Our present state of knowledge of the functional form relating environmental
damage to population and output (i.e., the feedback effects) is very limited.
Also, the positive and  negative  synergisms that  might exist between dif-
ferent  pollutants  at  different  levels of  concentration is  not yet  known.
Following a simple  analytic  approach,  the per  capita damage d is  set
proportional to the concentration C, the  proportionality  constant  B itself
being  assumed to be  a monotonically increasing function of the con-
centration of pollutants,
                            d = BC = f(C)C                          (5)

 The total damages, D, can then be  represented  by

                               D = BCP                            (6)

 Substitution of  Equation (3) leads to

                d = (AB/Vr)(1-exp(-rt))qP +  BK  exp(-rt)              (7)

 and

               D = p((AB/Vr)(1-exp(-rt))qP +  BK exp(-rt))            (8)

 Defining a "volume" population density p=P/V, one can rewrite Equations
 (7) and (8) as

                  d = (k/r)(1-exp(-rt))qp + BK exp(-rt)               (9)
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 and

                D = p((k/r)(1-exp(-rt))qp+  BK exp(-rt))            (10)

 where K is in general a coefficient whose numerical value depends on the
 concentration  level  and  the  amount of  capital  invested in  pollution
 abatement facilities.
   Equations (9) and (10), although very approximate and simplistic, enable
 one to make a number of useful observations concerning the environmental
 impacts  of such factors as (1)  the  size  of the  population,  P;  (2)  the
 geographic distribution or concentration of the population, p; (3) the amount
 of production (or consumption) per capita,  q, i.e., the  "affluence" variable;
 and (4) the amount of pollutant generated per capita of production (or con-
 sumption)  k,  which  is  essentially a  variable  reflecting  technology  and
 abatement policies. One can see, for example,  that the damage  to the en-
 vironment D increases in proportion to the population  P, the per capita out-
 put q, and the  population volume  density, p.  If  per  capita output  and
 population density are held constant, Equation (10)  tells us that pollution is
 directly proportional  to  population. But if population  were held constant,
 pollution  could  just  as well  increase,  either because  of  increases  in
 population volume density, or  because of  increases  in per capita output.
 Hence,  in this simple formulation, one is led to  the  conclusion that "un-
 controlled" affluence, and "unplanned" metropolitanization of population
 can  cause  environmental  damage  even  at  zero  population  growth
 (assuming  no  fundamental  changes  in production and   pollution
 technology). It is noteworthy that such a simplistic analytic model has con-
 firmed our intuitive  knowledge of  the   gross   relationships   between
 population, economic growth, and environmental degradation.
  The  accuracy  and  reliability of the  simple  analytic model leading to
 Equation  (10) is  limited.  Realizing  this limitation,  the Commission  on
 Population Growth and the American Future commissioned Resources for
the Future (RFF) to develop an elaborate and highly  disaggregated com-
 puter model for the purpose of analyzing the environmental impacts of alter-
 native population and economic growth projections (31). The RFF approach
consists  essentially   of an industrial input-output  model  coupled  to
exogeneous  information  derived  on  the  basis  of  four alternative
demographic and  economic scenarios: high  population and   economic
growth (Census Bureau series B-High GNP), low population and  economic
growth (Census Bureau series E-Low GNP) and the two intermediate cases
(B-Low  and E-High). For  each   one of  the four  scenarios the model
calculates:  (1) the main economic indicators, (2) estimates on resource
requirements, (3) estimates of pollution levels under different assumptions
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regarding abatement policy and available technology and (4) the regional
and metropolitan area impacts of air pollution.
  Employing this model the RFF study arrives at a number of policy-
oriented findings. Some of the most conclusions are  paraphrased below
(32):

  (1) For the time horizon of the study,  i.e., the  next 30 to 50 years,  the
    changes in technology, tastes, institutions, policies, and international
    relations  will play more important roles than  population growth in
    determining resource adequacy and environmental quality.
  (2) For the time horizon of the study, a change in population growth  ap-
    pears to have  a smaller impact  on resource consumption than a
    change in economic growth. A  one percent reduction in  population
    would reduce consumption of resources in the year 2000 by 0.2 to  0.7
    percent, whereas the equivalent percentage reduction in  per capita
    GNP would  reduce consumption in that year by 0.6  to 3.5 percent.
  (3) The United States appears to be in good shape relative to other coun-
    tries, provided we have sufficient lead time to develop domestic alter-
    natives to foreign sources, should the need arise. A slower population
    growth rate  leading  to a stable population  within the next 50 to 75
    years,  will  buy  us time to overcome our  ignorance of  ecological
    processes and expand our options in deciding how we want  to live in
    the future;  a slowdown in  population and  economic growth would
    clearly help in this  respect by giving us sufficient lead time.
  (4) The relative position of the poorer two-thirds of the world  is likely to
    deteriorate  further  during  the   next 30  to  50  years unless some
    dramatic technological breakthroughs, rapid declines  in birthrates, or
    massive transfers of resources  from richer countries take  place.
  (5) While there is mounting evidence that environmental quality is lower in
    metropolitan  areas that are  more densely populated, the  underlying
    causes for the lower quality may not be scale but factors such as: urban
    forms and transportation systems more appropriate to an earlier era;
    old, unintegrated service facilities;  inappropriate pricing of  public
    facilities and common property  resources such as roads  and waste
    disposal; multiple political  jurisdictions;  and  the factors  leading to
    inadequate financing and a predominance of minority groups and poor
    in the core cities.
  Christakis points out that models such  as the one described above
should also provide for analysis of social issues. Later we will present his
suggestions for methodology to achieve this end.
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Economic and Welfare  Implications of ZPG
  Singer has  developed a different demographic-economic model  (33).
This model calculates a "per-capita welfare index" or a "Q-index" as a fun-
ction of various demographic and economic parameters. In  the following,
Singer discusses the implications of a situation of increased welfare in
which all members of society have some money left over for discretionary
spending.

  If we can maintain  our level of population near optimum, then it appears
that each generation will become better off than the preceding one. In fact,
maintenance of optimum population  may mean, and almost certainly will
mean, a declining level of population, but declining at a very slow rate.
  The burning question, of course, centers on how people will choose to
spend their income.  In essence, we  are really asking what life styles will
people adopt for the  future. There are, of course, several possibilities and
any one of these,  or any combination, may hold true. It would be useful to
list  these possibilities in order.

  1. More Leisure. People may choose to take their greater welfare in terms
     of more leisure time. We have existing trends that show not only fewer
     working hours per week and fewer working days per year,  but also
     fewer working years per lifetime. People today retire at an earlier age
     and  also  enter the labor force  at a later age then  they did some
     decades ago. There is no reason to expect that this trend will not con-
     tinue,  although,  leisure,  like every  other good,  has a decreasing
     marginal utility.  By this is  meant that the first hour of  discretionary
     leisure time  is  much  more valuable  than each  succeeding  hour;
     beyond a certain point leisure time may not be very worthwhile to some
     people. These points have been considered in the model.
  2.  More consumer  goods. In the future, it is quite likely that people will
     spend more on luxury goods. Such goods include second homes, third
     homes such as vacation cottages, beach houses, etc., vacation trips of
     more  elaborate dimensions.
  3.  More services.  Spending  on a  variety of services  is one  of the
    strongest existing trends and has also been incorporated in the model
    calculations. Naturally, it cannot continue forever, that is, services can
    never constitute  100 percent of all  expenditures.  We cannot run a
    country or the world by taking in each other's laundry. But we can cer-
    tainly lavish a great deal of effort on such items as better health care,
    specialized  education,  cultural activities,  as  well'  as  visits to
    psychiatrists.
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  4. Finally, the model considers the possibility of increasing public invest-
    ments, not only in conventional public works designed to improve the
    working of the economy, such as  highways,  flood  control projects,
    irrigation  projects, etc.  but also  in environmental quality and con-
    servation projects. These investments by their very nature have to be
    made through government, i.e. on  a collective  basis, with everyone
    contributing  through  tax payments,  and  presumably everyone
    benefiting somewhat in  the relation to the  payment of taxes.

  As for any  investment,  public  investment raise the question  of  cost-
benefit analysis. Not only is it necessary to quantify the benefits (it is usually
quite easy to quantify the costs) but there are additional and very serious
problems when most of the benefits accrue to future years and perhaps to
future generations. We know that a benefit today is worth more than one in
the future, quite apart from any inflationary trends which can presumably be
accounted for. We can take a benefit today, expressed in dollars, and invest
this sum of money and arrive at a larger value in the future, simply  because
it has been invested.
  One of the consequences flowing out  of  the results of the model
calculation is the greater  availability of  funds for investments of  all  sorts
because of greater discretionary income.  Under a situation where capital
becomes less scarce, it is possible to think of a situation of lower interest
rates as well.  But a lower interest rate, a lower return on invested capital,
also means an enhanced value for future benefits. Under these conditions,
it becomes attractive to consider diverting larger amounts of investments^
into projects which will yield benefits  beyond  the immediate ones, and
benefits even into the far distant future.
  Essentially, we are saying  that with larger discretionary  income there will
be a larger propensity to invest in  projects that benefit future generations,
as well as in projects that lead to enhancement of current recreational bene-
fits.
  Under these conditions,  it is possible  to visualize an effort  through
political action to increase levels of environmental quality,  both by setting
higher standards, as well as by undertaking restoration projects.  Not only
does  it  become  worthwhile  and  profitable  to  undertake  such  major
programs as  soil  conservation,   and  control   of agricultural pollution,
separation of urban sewer systems into sanitary and storm sewers, dealing
with acid mine drainage, but large  scale restoration projects, also become
more  feasible:  restoring  the quality of the Great Lakes  by  appropriate
remedial measures, restoring natural areas and wildlife  habitats, reforestra-
tion, and reclamation  of stripmined land, etc.
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   To sum up: with a projected increase in discretionary income we can look
forward to a simultaneous  increase in  a number of unrelated activities:
more leisure will be taken, more luxury goods will be bought, more services
will  be  required, and large scale public programs will be undertaken not
only to  protect but also to  improve our  physical and social environment.
Resource and Environmental Consequences of ZPG

   Ridker  discusses the resource  and environmental consequences of
population and economic growth and the results of the  RFF study men-
tioned in  a previous section. In his  discussion, particular emphasis is
placed on the effects of ZPG.  He reviews the determinants of resource and
environmental pressures. Then he presents the consequence of growth as
determined in the study using the RFF model and comparing those results
with results  obtained from more  detailed and conventional  studies of
specific factors such  as  energy and agriculture. Population forecasts for
high birth rate (Bureau of Census Series B; birth rate 3.1) and low (ZPG)
birth rate  (Series E; 2.1) were combined with several levels of economic
growth. The new series F forecast, of course, was not available at the time of
the study. His discussion is presented in  the next section.

      Determinants  of Resource and  Environmental Pressures
  To begin, we must identify the factors that are most influential in deter-
mining resource requirements and environmental pressures. Changes in
any of these determinants can significantly alter the nation's requirements
for natural resources and they can just as significantly affect the quality of
the environment. These determinants  are  usefully grouped under seven
headings:

  —Demographic variables. The size of the population, its rate of  growth,
     its age structure, the  number and size of the households involved, and
    the labor force participation rates:  all have a bearing on the resources.
    They  directly affect the level of consumption goods purchased,  the
    types of goods purchased, as well as the level of economic activity we
    can expect from the population. This economic activity, of course, is an
    important determinant of  fhe output of  materials  we can expect.
  —Standard of living. Measured by per capita GNP or per capita income,
    the standard of living plays a similarly important role in determining the
    output of materials. Moreover, the distribution of the standard within the
    population is a separate, but related, factor of great  importance.
  —Geographic distribution. The distribution of the population and of the
    nation's economic activities bear heavily on resources and the  en-
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    vironment. They are obviously important in explaining environmental
    pressures in  given areas. They affect the cost—in terms  of natural
    resources—of efforts  to overcome these environmental  pressures.
    Transport requirements between  persons and  producing units  in
    various places exert further  resource  and environmental pressures.
  —Technological methods.  The  methods used at each stage of economic
    activity, from  mining and  energy  conversion through transport and
    production, to emission and treatment of effluents, can  make a great
    difference in the character and magnitude of the problems we will face
    as a consequence of population and  economic growth.
  —Life styles. The  role of life styles—preferences  for  leisure  and for
    various kinds of commodities and ways of using them—reflect directly
    on the state of the environment and  on the availability of natural resour-
    ces. Certainly, a style of life that includes throwaway bottles, suburban
    living and high compression automobiles places vastly more pressure
    on the environment than does one that involves less  emphasis on
    packaging and advertising, urban apartment living, and  mass transit.
  —International considerations.  A sixth set of factors,  which is sometimes
    overlooked but which is likely to play an increasingly important role in
    the future,  pertains to  international developments. In particular, the
    terms at which the United States can  acquire resources and finished
    commodities  from  abroad are  crucial  in environmental and  resource-
    availability considerations.
  — Policy. Finally, all the above factors are influenced by  policy: by rules
    and  regulations for managing  effluents and  land use,  by important
    policies with  respect to fuels  and  minerals, by decisions made with
    respect to location of public investments,  and so on.

                             Population
  At the outset let us  recall  that under any reasonable assumption about
births-per-women  during the  next few decades,  the population of the United
States will grow quite substantially during the next quarter to half century. If
ZPG is taken literally to mean a cessation of population growth, we are still
far from achieving it. There are  three  reasons for this. First, the United
States has a relatively young population, with a  large fraction of women just
entering childbearing years.  Even if these women  decide to have no more
than the 2.1 children  necessary for replacement,  this age  structure will
result in population growth by nearly 40  percent before stability is reached.
Second, to achieve ZPG immediately, U.S. women would have to have an
average of  only slightly more than one child for  some decades into the
future, at least until the age distribution corrects itself.  While it is true that
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fertility and  expectations about completed fertility among  young women
have fallen sharply in the last five years, the most recent survey on birth ex-
pectations reports that women 18-24 expect to complete their childbearing
years with an average of 2.1 children, a far cry from the 1.2 or so necessary
to achieve immediate ZPG.  Put in terms of birth rates, to achieve ZPG and
sustain it over time the crude birth rate would have to fall from  16 to less
than 10 per thousand and remain there for some decades, an event that ap-
pears highly unlikely in the  near future. Third,  all the above ignores net im-
migration which has been  set by law at  400,000 per year.  This figure is
more than 20 percent of the natural increase in population in recent years.
There is no  reason to believe that it will decline  in the near future.
  What has happened in recent years is a decline  in fertility and  fertility ex-
pectations that sets the stage for the ultimate achievement of ZPG,  or
something very near it. Between 1957 and 1969 the total fertility rate has
steadily fallen; the five-year  averages from 1955-59 through 1965-69 being
3.69,  3.46, and 2.63. Today,  this figure  probably stands at around  2.1.

                  Standard of Living and Life Style
  While it seems quite likely that life styles will change significantly during
the next half century, it is not at all certain  that they will be in the direction of
conserving on  resources, unless official  policy dictates such a course.
  Consider  the preference for savings over consumption.  The personal
savings rate  might rise if with  growing opulence and fewer children we
become sated with goods  and services,  or if we  channel increasing por-
tions of our incomes into housing (for example, second homes). But the ex-
pectation of routine prosperity and economic security guaranteed through
extensions of unemployment,  health, and old age and survivors insurance
is likely to dampen  individual incentives to save. So too would the per-
sistence of secular price inflation. Increased leisure would also  operate in
the same direction, increasing consumption especially of recreational
goods and services. On net these trends  may mean less personal savings.
But this is a trend  that can  be offset by business and government savings
behavior. Provided we are  willing to let businesses and government  save
for us, long-term growth prospects need not  be seriously affected by this
shift in preferences.
  So  far as  shifts  in preferences among types of goods are concerned,
there  seems to be some evidence to indicate a shift from private to public
goods and services, and within each category from goods to services.
Since cross-section consumption studies  indicate that the income elasticity
of demand for services and many types of public expenditures tends to be
higher than for other kinds  of goods, there is some reason  to believe that
such shifts will continue  in the future as incomes rise. But a large fraction of
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public goods involve construction and a significant component of what are
called consumer  services involves transportation, both heavy  users of
resources, especially of energy.
  A significant shift in preference for leisure over work could have a major
impact on resource requirements, at least so long as this shift is not offset
by increased automation that results in more goods to be enjoyed during
the increased  leisure hours. In recent years, work hours per year have
ceased their slow, long-term decline. In addition,  increasing numbers of
women have been entering the labor market. One  possible explanation is
the need for additional  income in the face of the price inflation of recent
years. But these changes  seem to be independent of family  income. In-
deed, often it is the wives  of well-off husbands  who appear most eager to
give up leisure for work. An alternative explanation  may be that for many in
our society work has ceased to be considered a "bad" to be avoided to the
extent one's income permits. Perhaps,  over time the workplace is offering
increasing  numbers of nonmonetary  as  well  as monetary  benefits: a
pleasant  physical  environment, interesting,  "meaningful"  things to  do,
friends, status, respect—and  sufficient on-the-job leisure to take advantage
of these  opportunities.  As machine-paced  labor is replaced  by more
automated processes,  and as jobs for more intrinsic interest  increase in
number, this phenomenon is likely to become more and more important. So
far as the economy and resource needs are concerned, the result is almost
the same as if off-the-job leisure increased, except that it shows up as a
decline in man-hour productivity rather than as  a decline in work hours or
labor force  participation rates.
  To account for these possible  changes  in  preferences,  the following
assumptions are made:  no change in the overall  propensity to consume and
save, a continuation in  the trend towards services and public  goods,  and
shifts in the composition of consumer purchases that arise from changes in
the numbers of families in different age,  income, and family size  classes.
Two alternative assumptions  about  labor productivity and work hours  can
then be considered. First,  man hour productivity can be assumed to con-
tinue growing at 2.5 percent per year and annual work hours to decline by
0.25 percent per year, more or less on trend. As  a second alternative the ef-
fect of a decline in work hours by 1.0 percent per year can be considered.
While still far from a zero economic growth case, the shift towards leisure
implied by this second, low  economic growth  case is fairly dramatic: in-
stead of weekly work hours falling over a thirty-year period from 40 to 37 in
the high growth case, they would fall to 29 in  the low growth scenario.
  It should be noted that the equivalent low growth case can be generated
by assuming a fall in the growth of manhour productivity to 1.5 percent per
year while holding to the first assumption about annual work hours. Con-
                                 65

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 sidering the possibility of  on-the-job  rather than off-the-job leisure  in-
 creasing, this may be  more realistic; but in no way  does it change the
 analysis.
                       Technological Changes
   Five types of technological changes  should be distinguished. The first,
 overall  changes in labor productivity, has already been considered. The
 others involve changes  in materials used per unit of output, changes in the
 generation of residuals per unit of output (or per unit of materials input),
 changes in the emission of wastes per unit of residuals generated, and
 changes in pollution  per unit of wastes.
   So far as materials other than  energy used  per unit of output are con-
 cerned, the trend has been  distinctly downward. Twenty years ago a ton of
 peaches would  produce 40 cases of canned fruit; today 55 cases can be
 produced  from  one  ton. In addition, the composition of  materials has
 changed dramatically, energy and  capital substituting for labor, cheaper
 materials substituting for higher cost  minerals, chemical  fertilizers and
 pesticides substituting for land and natural manures. There is no reason to
 believe that such changes will not continue in the future, although the par-
 ticular direction they will take is  difficult to  predict.
   In general the amount of wastes generated per unit of materials input has
 also been  improving. For example,  in  1943,  the  production of container
 board generated 0.45 tons  of waste per  ton of final product whereas by
 1963 this figure had dropped to 0.21. For the economy as a whole it is dif-
 ficult to generalize because of the introduction of new processes, products,
 and materials over time.
   The  third type of technological  change, changes  in the emission of
 wastes  per unit of residuals,  has to do with the extent of recovery and
 recycling. Here the picture is mixed, the trend since World War II involving
 less recycling of waste  paper and more recycling of a number of metals.
 The principal  factors  influencing  these trends  are  changes  in the
 geographic distribution of the sources of  wastes—for example, subur-
 banization  trends that make collection  of waste paper more costly—and
 relative  prices which  are, of course, subject to influence by government
 policy. Considering the  fact that the incentives for recycling and  recovery
 have been few in the  past, it seems quite likely that there is considerable
 scope for improvements in these directions.
  The last category of technological  change involves the form in which the
wastes are emitted. In  large part, this has to do  with pollution  treatment
technology, but change  in production processes can also have a significant
effect on the toxicity of the wastes. Over time, as the'chemical industry has
 learned to synthesize compounds not found in nature, and hence in general
                                 66

-------
not readily assimilated by plants and animals, the situation has worsened.
Treatment technology, however,  has been improving and with the proper in-
centives can  be expected to continue  improving.
  The projection of this mixed bag of effects is, of course,  very difficult to
project without introducing technological fixes that may never happen,  one
must figure it very conservatively, permitting ongoing changes to work their
way out but not introducing much that is new. Ongoing substitution of one
material for another in particular uses—e.g.,  plastic for metal  in  pipe
production—are permitted to continue up to some specified maximum;  and
today's best practice is assumed to become the average practice in each
industry by the year 2000. But new processes, substitutions, and products,
with both their good and bad effects, have for the most part been  left out.
                       Geographic Distribution
  By now the principal trends in distribution of population and economic
activities are  well known and documented: the  emptying out of the coun-
tryside, the rapid territorial spread of metropolitan areas,  and the reduction
in population  densities in many central cities. A continuation of these trends
is likely Jo result in an  increase in the percent of the population  living in
metropolitan areas from 71 percent in 1970 to 85 percent in the year 2000
and an increase in the geographic area classified as  urban from 200
square miles in 1960 to 500 square miles by 2000. By the latter date,  this
would mean that one-sixth of the land area of the United States (exclusive of
Alaska and Hawaii) would be devoted to urban settlement (34).
  But these trends are heavi.ly dependent on a number of policies. While it
is difficult to predict whether densities will increase or decrease in the
Washington, D.  C.  metropolitan  area as a consequence of the introduction
of both a subway and a frequently proposed tax on downtown parking, there
can be no doubt that such changes will have profound effects.  To  account
for  such  changes,  at least insofar as air pollution is concerned, several
alternatives to this basic trend have been considered,  one requiring that 10
percent of the additional economic activity that might otherwise locate in
metropolitan regions be located outside these area, another restricting the
geographic spread of current metropolitan areas, and so on. Several of the
results obtained are presented  in the analysis.
                     International Developments
  Unfortunately,  far too little time has been devoted to the  study of in-
ternational trends of importance for the United States.  Basically, the Bureau
of Mines "high" projections for minerals  and energy consumption in the
rest of the world can be accepted at face value and it can be assumed that a
relatively free trade regime would prevail. This could give quite misleading
results, especially  so far as the energy picture is concerned.
                                 67

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                          Policy Changes
  In order to highlight the effects of population and economic growth, in
most of the  basic scenarios studied  the policy regime  is assumed to be
constant as  of  about  1967-70.  But  several variations  of  an  "active
abatement policy" were also explored and are reported on below.
                     The Consequences of ZPG
  The  implications of these determinants  and our assumed changes in
them over time were examined in two ways: first using a mathematical
model  of the economy designed  to  highlight the resource and  en-
vironmental elements under study,  and, second, comparing these results
with those obtained from more detailed and conventional  studies of specific
sectors such as energy and agriculture.  Those results that are most salient
for the  discussion of policy and research implications are presented below.
                           The Economy
  To simplify the task, four basic scenarios were developed from the set of
alternative assumption with which we worked: a high population-(Bureau of
Census Series B) high  economic growth (denoted H) case (B-H), a  low
population (Bureau of Census Series E)-low economic growth (denoted L)
case (E-L), and the two intermediate cases. We started by assuming no
change in resource or environmental  policy from the base period. Table 2
presents the results.
  As can be seen, by the year 2000 the. U.S. economy will  be somewhere
between double and  triple its current size, with all that entails for resource
and environmental pressures. A slowdown in population growth will help, of
course: it results in a higher per capita income and a smaller GNP, that is,
greater per capita material welfare with a smaller output of materials.  But
even with a significant shift towards leisure—and despite the shift towards
services built into these projections—it is  clear that we shall face much
greater resource and  environmental pressures in the future than we have so
far.
                        Resource Adequacy
  Figure 3 presents a picture of the total amounts of five  of the 19 minerals
studied that are needed to achieve these basic scenarios between now and
the  year 2000. The bars representing an "active recycling policy" reflect
our judgment about the additional amount of recycling (over and above what
was already present in the base  period)  that should be  feasible given
current technology and proper incentives. For these minerals, as well as for
the  others studied, the slowdown in population growth is not as effective in
saving  on resources  as is a reduction in economic growth; but the com-
bination of both plus  an active recycling policy can  achieve  a considerable
                                68

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Table 2.  Demographic  and  Economic Indicators for Alternative Population
and Economic Assumptions, No Policy Change.
Indicator



GNP Per Capita (1967 $) 	
Disposable Income Per
Capita (1958 $) 	
GNP (fail. 1967 $) 	
Consumption (fail. 1967 $) 	
Investment (bil. 1967 $) 	
Government (bil. 1967 $) 	
Defense (bil. 1967 $) 	
Non-Defense (bil. 19&7 $) . . .
Net Exports (bil. 1967 $) 	
Total Output (bil. 1967 $) 	
Primary (bil. 1967 $) 	
Mining (bil. 196? $) 	
Construction (bil. 1967 $)..
Manufacturing (bil. 1967 $) .
Food (bil. 1967 $) 	
Paper (bil. 1967 $) 	
Petroleum (bil. 1967 $)...
Chemicals (bil. 1967 $) . . .
Primary Metals (bil.
1967 $) 	
Rubber and plastics
(bll. 1967 $) 	
Stone and Clay (bil.
1967 $) 	
Textiles (bil. 1967 $)....
Lumber and Wood (bil.
1967 $) 	
Leather (bil. 1967 $) 	
Services (bil. 1967 $) 	
Electricity (bil. 1967 $) .
Consumption Purchases
(bil. 1967 $) 	
Durables (bil. 1967$) 	
Nondurables (bil. 1967 $)...
Services (bil. 1967 $) 	

1970
205
85
62
3937
2595
807
524
99
186
62
124
-3
1326
84
22
57
585
93
22
26
45
44
14
14
25
12
4
600
19
524
52
128
344
Absolute Figures
2000
B-H
321
136
106
8125
5399
2608
1704
341
579
97
482
-17
4174
207
59
181
1776
214
73
60
152
122
54
48
69
43
14
2009
72
1704
207
333
116.4
E-H
266
127
101
9098
6018
2420
1577
309
548
102
446
-15
3843
192
57
164
1628
198
66
62
142
111
48
43
60
39
10
1858
66
1577
188
313
J<*
B-L
321
136
106
6452
4241
2071
1339
278
468
88
380
-13
3334
174
49
148
1437
184
58
51
120
100
43
39
52
34
11
1575
58
1339
159
278
902
E-L
266
127
101
7218
4721
1920
1237
252
442
92
350
-11
3064
161
47
133
1316
170
53
52
112
90
38
35
46
31
7
1454
53
1237
144
261
832
2020
B-H
440
186
145
12661
8650
5571
3747
688
1170
149
1021
-33
8900
406
119
382
3689
405
155
115
321
251
117
101
140
92
31
4424
163
3747
478
667
2602
E-H
299
146
113
14625
9848
4373
2899
551
948
158
790
-25
6933
318
100
296
2877
312
119
105
254
197
88
79
102
71
20
3442
127
2899
362
525
2012
B-L
440
186
145
8632
5804
3798
2514
492
813
128
685
-22
6124
297
87
274
2587
306
107
87
218
180
80
74
89
63
20
2966
114
2514
314
482
1718
E-L
299
146
113
9946
6558
2974
1930
400
659
133
526
-16
4747
231
72
209
2012
234
82
76
173
140
60
56
65
49
12
2295
88
1930
236
377
1317
 a% Increase from B-H
 SOURCE:  U.S. Commission on Population Growth and  the American Future, Population, Resources.
        and the Environment.  Ronald G. Ridker, editor, Vol. 111 of Commission Research
        Reports (Washington,  D.C.:  U.S.  Government Printing Office, 1972), adapted from
        Table 2, p. 41.
                                       69

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      5000-
      ifOOO-
      3000_
      2000.
      1000.
           BH  EH BL  EL
              IRON
                                                                          n
300 -
200 -
                            100 -
                                                 Base Period
                                                 Recycling
                                                 Act!ve Recycli ng
                                                 Pol icy
                                              III!
    BH  EH  BL  EL  BH  EH  BL  EL   BH  EH  BL  EL BH  EH  BL  EL
      ALUMINUM         COPPER         LEAD          ZINC
    *From U.S. Commission on Population Growth and  the American Future, Population, Resources and the
     Envi ronment, op. cit., p.  97.
Figure 3. Cumulative  Requirements for Five Metals, Basic Scenarios With and  Without Active
Recycling Policy, 1968-2000 (million tons).

-------
saving. Unfortunately, at this juncture we could not evolve a clear idea of the
cost in economic or environmental terms involved in this much  recycling.
  Figure 4 presents a picture of annual energy requirements. Because it
assumes  only  modest  changes  in  energy  technology from  the  base
period—an assumption that is rapidly becoming outdated—the breakdown
by fuels is probably not very significant. For example, gasification of  coal
will probably be necessary before the turn of the century to meet some of
the natural gas  requirements. But the breakdown does indicate in general
terms the extent to which we shall continue to be dependent on petroleum.
  When  these  requirements projections  are  matched against supply
projections for the United States and against demand and supply projec-
tions for the rest of the world, the principal conclusion that emerges is that
the United States is  not likely to  experience any truly serious  shortages
during the  next quarter  to half  century  solely as  a consequence of
population and  economic growth. By "serious shortages" are meant shor-
tages that would cause  the relative price of a significant number of these
minerals and fuels to increase by more than 50 percent or so. Other factors
may of course come into the picture to upset this conclusion, a point that
must be amplified later. Environmental groups may refuse to permit the  con-
struction of a sufficient number of nuclear or other electric power plants or
the Organization  of Petroleum Exporting Countries  may successfully im-
pose monopolistic control over a large fraction of the world's petroleum
supplies. But strictly as a consequence of population and economic growth
in this country and perhaps also in the rest of the world, the United States is
likely to  be able to find the  necessary supplies to  meet rising demands
without price increases  of such a magnitude that the  general welfare is
endangered.
                              Pollution
  Figure 5  illustrates our findings with respect to a number of different
pollutants. The  bars labeled A represent the  amount of various  pollutants
generated in 1970 and likely to be generated  in the year 2000 under alter-
native assumptions about population  and  economic  growth.  The  bars
labeled B in 1970 indicate the amount of these pollutants emitted, the dif-
ference between A and  B indicating the small amount of treatment present
in that year. The bars labeled B in the year 2000 indicate  the amount of
various pollutants likely to be emitted in that year assuming the same level
of treatment as  in 1970  but taking into account the changes in technology
that are likely to come along even  in the absence of an active  abatement
policy. In  principle,  such technological  changes  could  result in either a
higher or a lower level of residuals per unit of output;  in fact,  however, most
of the changes investigated reduce residuals. To a large extent, this result
                                 71

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Figure 4. Annual Requirements  for  Energy,  Basic  Scenarios.  (Source:
"Population,  Resources, and the Environment" op. cit,  p. 43.)
   225 -,
   200 -J
   175 J
   150 J
   125 -\
   100 J
    75 H
    50 H
    25 H
                                       (Quadri11 ion  Btu)
            1970
B-H      E-H     B-L      E-L
            2000
                                                           KEY

                                                          Coal
                                                          Natural
                                                          Gas
                                                          Petroleum
                                                          Hydro
                                                          Nuclear,
                                                          Other
                                   72

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        1970
                           2000
BILLION
POUNDS
   300
   200-
   100.
     0.
         HIGH POP.
         HIGH GNP
LOW POP.
HIGH GNP
HIGH POP.
LOW GNP
LOW POP.
LOW GNP
PARTICIPATES
   1»00
       HYDROCARBONS
                                Q
                                                        Pollution generated
                                                    assuming 1970 technology
                                                    associated with pollution.
                                                     (Technological changes
                                                     resulting in substitutions
                                                    amongst inputs--e.g.,
                                                    plastics for metals--are
                                                     included.)
   300
       OXIDES OF NITROGEN
                                                               Pollution emitted in
                                                           1970 and in  2000 assuming
                                                           changes  in pollution
                                                           generation coefficients
                                                           and efficiency of treat-
                                                           ment likely  to come along
                                                           even without .an active
                                                           abatement policy.
                                                              ,Emissions  in 2000
                                                           assuming use of production
                                                           and treatment  processes
                                                           induced by an  active
                                                           abatement policy.
                                                               Active abatement  in
                                                           this case means  secondary
                                                           treatment which  has no
                                                           appreciable effect on
                                                           dissolved sol ids.
Figure 5. Pollution Generated and  Emitted Under Alternative Assumptions
                                       73

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 arises from the assumption  that best practice in 1970 becomes average
 practice by the year  2000;  while  this  assumption by itself is very con-
 servative, we purposely left out new processes  and products that might
 come along to raise new problems.
   To arrive at the bars labeled C representing an active abatement policy,
 EPA's recommended  emission standards for  1975 were applied. While it
 appears likely that the technology  will exist by 1975 to meet these  stan-
 dards, we applied them in the year 2000, by which time,  at least from a
 technological point of view,  it should be possible to surpass them.
   As far as can be judged the cost of meeting these standards does not ap-
 pear excessively expensive. In 1970,  the annualized costs of pollution
 abatement were estimated by EPA to be $8.45 billion (1967 dollars), about
 one percent of GNP. To meet the emission standards implied by this active
 abatement policy, it is estimated that these costs will have to rise to bet-
 ween $34 billion (for the case E-H) and $47 billion (for the case B-H) by the
 year 2000 (all figures in 1967  dollars). While these are, very large num-
 bers, they still amount to less than two percent of GNP in the year 2000.  To
 make room for such expenditures we would have  to give up less than one-
 tenth of one percentage point  in  annual growth  of  GNP. Once again,
 however, there are some qualifications which  must be brought up again in
 discussing policy implications.
   It should be noted, however, that the pollutants  that were studied for the
 most part  have  relatively short half-lives.  Because  of data and other
 analytical  problems, radiation,  heavy metals,  persistent pesticides,  and
 similar pollutants that can accumulate in the environment over time were not
 studied in as much depth.
                        Regional Problems
  A second qualification to the analysis of pollution problems arises from
 regional concerns: some regions could face serious problems even though
they achieve the 1975  emission standards. To determine whether this is the
case, regional  projections were developed, for three air pollutants in 47
cities and applied to a general air  diffusion model.
  Table 3 summarizes the results for a special case in which the land  area
of each city expands in proportion to  its population  increase, thereby
keeping density constant. As can be seen, a growing number of cities will
not be able to meet the ambient standards without the active abatement
policy (35).
  For these two areas,  both of which are already above the nitrogen dioxide
standard, something must give: the  use  of the  internal combustion engine,
inmigration  of  people  and  activities  or the standard  itself.   While
                                74

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Table 3. Number of Cities Among 47 Studied Not Meeting Specified Ambient Standards

S02 (80 micrograms)3
S0£ (60 micrograms)3
N02 (100 micrograms)3
Particulates
(75 micrograms)3
Particulates
(60 micrograms)3
1970
2
4
36
36
M
2000
No Pol icy Changes
B-H E-H B-L- E-L
2311
6645
41 43 41 42
27 32 15 19
42 43 32 37
Abatement Pol icy
B-H E-H B-L E-L
0000
0000
2322
0000
0000
 aAnnual arithmetic mean  in  mierograms per cubic meter

 SOURCE:  U.S. Commission  on Population Growth and the American  Future, Population,
         Resources, and  the Environment, Ronald 6. Ridker,  editor,  Volume  I I I of
         Commission Research Reports(Washington, D.C.:   U.S. Government Printing
         Office, 1972),  Tables  10,  11, and 12, pp. 52-56.
                                      75

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 Washington, D.C., was not included among the 47 urban areas in this sam-
 ple, a recent study suggests that the same situation applies here as well. It is
 likely that more detailed  studies of other metropolitan areas  and other
 pollutants will provide additional cases of this sort.
   If we assume that urban land area expands  less rapidly than population,
 the  situation worsens rapidly. On the other hand,  when in one run of this
 model it was assumed that 10 percent of the additional economic activities
 that would  otherwise  have  located in  these urban areas were instead
 required  to locate in  nonurban  areas,   the  situation   improved only
 marginally, reducing the number of cities not meeting the sulfate standards
 from two to one and the number not meeting particulate standards from 27
 to 17, while those  not meeting the nitrate  standard remained the same.
   A final point of interest about these  regional projections is  their great
 diversity. Population density is increasing in some while it is decreasing in
 others. For sulfates in 1970, the highest average concentration level for any
 city  is six times that of the lowest.  Even with  an active abatement policy,
 some areas will grow worse over time while others improve. Moreover, the
 trend is not the same for all three pollutants: particulate levels are likely to
 fall in a number of cities  even without an  active  abatement policy  while
 nitrate levels are likely to worsen in some  even with such a policy.

 The Policy Implications of Zero
Population Growth


   It  appears obvious that the historical trend cannot continue in  which
successive doublings of world population require only half the time of the
prior doubling.  Still, it  is  possible for the world population growth to con-
tinue at a slower rate of increase than at present for many years, subject to
the constraints of food  production, availability of energy, and availability of
natural resources. An  earth population  numbering as many as  35 to 50
billion has been considered possibly by some forecasters.
  As we have seen, the world population could be stabilized  into a ZPG
state at some desired  level,  as one alternative.  Or,  a phase of  declining
population or "negative population growth"  could ensue. A third alternative
is  that of continued growth.
   Calhoun considers these alternatives from the viewpoint of the "evolution
of consciousness." (See  Chapter 6.) It is his contention that if ZPG is the
choice, the capacity of the individual human will stay as constant as the rate
of population increase itself. There will be no further evolution of con-
sciousness;  evolution for  humans will have been terminated. It will be all
over except for  a "continuous hedonistic traditionalism."
                                  76

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  Other animals have had this choice thrust upon them and have persisted
for millions of years.  Calhoun notes the same possibility for humans, but
warns that only through our own intent and deliberate actions can we alter
the pattern and allow the evolution of  our consciousness to continue.
  During the current  domain of evolution, the total worth of humanity has
progressed according to the product of the population and the capacity (or
consciousness) of the  average individual. This total worth  of humanity,
which Calhoun terms "ideomass", has steadily increased,  despite the fact
that the "biomass" (or product of  population and average body weight)
became constant.
  If population is allowed to increase  to the  limits possible,  according to
Calhoun, then the average individual would become less aware of less and
less, until most individuals had dropped below the level of consciousness
required for initiating cultural evolution.

Policy and Research Implications

  Ridker discusses two implications for policy and research. He believes
direct  measures for  dealing  with  resource  shortages  and  pollution are
superior to the indirect measures of population  control  and control of the
economy. Secondly, he suggests that more comprehensive approaches to
problem solving should improve our environmental situation with less social
and  economic cost. His discussion follows.

Direct versus Indirect Approaches
  It has become commonplace in the  last few years  to hear calls for ZPG
and ZEG (Zero Economic Growth) as ways to contain the encroachment of
man on,the earth's limited supplies of raw  materials and environmental
carrying capacity. In contrast to measures like zoning, effluent charges, and
mass transit, such policies would operate indirectly  on our resource and
environmental problems. They are said to be  necessary because the direct
measures are  only palliatives, attempting to  correct  the symptoms rather
than attacking  the main causes.
  So far as population growth is concerned there is little argument. Even if
there were no necessity for such growth to cease, its  continuance provides
us with no social advantages and  a number of  costs at this stage in our
history. But the same cannot be said about economic growth which, with ap-
propriate  changes in composition, can  be utilized so solve many of the
problems it creates. The question of whether  it must  also cease is of more
interest.
  There  can be no doubt that all  population and economic growth must
someday  cease. Exponential growth in a limited  space  cannot continue
forever. Technological advance can postpone  that ultimate day, but it cannot

                                  77

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 repeal the laws of nature. But this fact by itself is of little rerevance. Far more
 important is the question, when? Must it cease within our lifetime, that of our
 grandchildren,  or some far-off distant generation?  It makes  an enormous
 difference for policy today how we  answer this question.
   Unfortunately, the information does not exist with which to answer this
 question, except to  say that there is  no reason why it must cease within the
 next 50 years or so. Beyond that point, we must admit ignorance. We do not
 know what kind of disasters we may be letting ourselves in for by permitting
 economic growth  to continue;  but we  are also  ignorant  of  possible
 technological and institutional breakthroughs that may come along not just
 to save future generations from disaster  but perhaps to make them sub-
 stantially better off than the current  generation.  For  the  time  being,
 therefore, we can still choose whether to slow  growth down as  a way of
 coping with  our problems or to rely on more direct attacks on  the problems
 that face us.
   Within this fifty-year time frame, our  analysis strongly suggests that as
 policy instruments for dealing with raw materials shortages and pollution,
 direct  measures  are far  superior   to across-the-board  restrictions  on
 population and economic growth. The clearest indication of this is found in
 Figure 5 which compared the reductions in pollution that might be achieved
 using direct and  indirect approaches.  Other  examples can  be found by
 comparing  the amount  of reduction in  GNP per capita that would  be
 necessary to curtail the emission of a given pollutant, say sulfur oxides, by a
 given amount, with the extent of the reduction in GNP per capita that would
 occur as a consequence of a more selective approach. Analysis indicates
 that a one percentage point reduction in GNP per capita would reduce this
 pollutant by  0.87 percent, but that if the output of the five sectors with the
 highest emission coefficients were reduced by 2.5 percent this same 0.87
 percent reduction in sulfux oxides could be achieved with only a third of a
 percentage  point reduction  in GNP per  capita.  An even  more dramatic
 example would involve a direct attack on the automobile, which by itself ac-
 counts for 12 percent of hydrocarbon  emissions,  60 percent of carbon
 monoxide emissions and 25 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions from all
 manmade sources.  The  same argument applies to resources, at least to
 resources in general: given the substitution possibilities that are present,
why reduce  the consumption of all resources because a few are in short
supply?
  Of course, such  direct approaches  will result in some  slowdown in
economic growth. But with the exception of a few especially vulnerable
 regions, the  extent of this slowdown is not likely to be great during the next
quarter  to half century. Beyond this period,  it is possible that measures
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which bite more heavily into  aggregate  economic growth  will  prove
necessary.  But that is as  it should  be. So long as  other  options  are
available, including the option of changing the composition of growth, there
is no sense in limiting aggregate economic growth until we have to.
Piecemeal, Restrictive Measures
versus Structural Changes
  A more difficult issue involves the question of which direct measures to
use. All that Figure 5 suggests is that we have the technological know-how
to reduce future emission levels at reasonable cost, despite the population
and economic growth that will  occur in the interim;  it does  not say that
policies  can or will be devised to accomplish such reductions. This would
not be the first time that we accomplished far less than we know how to do.
  Most of the measures in use today, especially in the environmental field,
can be characterized as restrictive in character. The  imposition of standards
that must be met by a future date is perhaps the best example. Even effluent
charges,  or full-cost pricing, which for good reasons most economists favor,
are restrictive in the sense that the person faced with the charge is induced
to restrict his own behavior to reduce the burden of these addititional costs.
While it  is somewhat more difficult to characterize  resource policy in this
same way since subsidies for research and  exploration are also part of the
scene, it is certainly the case in both the resource and environmental fields
that most of our policies are not integrated  into any overall framework that
considers all  the ways of skinning the cat and  all the  consequences of
doing so by different methods. To illustrate  the kinds  of problems that can
arise from such piecemeal,  restrictive approaches, we  take  an example
from the  energy and urban transport fields, first considering the resource
and then the  environmental sides of these  interrelated problems.
  On the basis of the assumptions incorporated into the study, there appear
to be adequate supplies of petroleum to meet the world's needs during the
next half century or so, if not considerably beyond, One might be inclined to
predict from this that our current energy system based on liquid petroleum
fuels can  continue for some time to  come.
  But it is not difficult to make a case to the contrary. Consider a few of the
problems the  United States will face in the energy field during the next 10
to 15 years. Suppose that the OPEC cartel becomes stronger and decides
to set its long-term price on the basis of the costs of  producing alternative
sources  of petroleum in the United States,  rather than in relation to its much
lower costs of production. The choices for the United States would involve
reliance on imports—with all the attendant  balance of payments, political,
and military risks that would entail—attempts to break the cartel through the
application of colonial policies—which we  as well  as the Europeans may
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 have lost the will if not also the capacity to adopt—or efforts to reduce our
 long run dependence on foreign oil. Most likely the United States will try to
 opt for this latter course.
   But the production of oil from offshore sources, tar sands and shale,  will
 involve serious environmental problems, problems that will not be resolved
 cheaply, quickly, or to the satisfaction of many local groups with the power
 to hold  up  developments. On the  basis  of this  scenario, either  en-
 vironmental concerns will be subverted or the lifespan of our liquid energy
 system will be short, despite the existence of adequate worldwide supplies.
   The alternatives on the supply side are to  develop  coal gasification, and
 nuclear,  solar, and geothermal sources of electricity. Some of these alter-
 natives raise  new kinds of environmental  concerns, perhaps  the most
 serious  being  the need  to store  highly lethal,  radioactive  wastes from
 breeders in ever-increasing amounts for literally thousands of years. But in
 any event, unless significant changes occur in our transport system, the ex-
 tent  to which gas and electricity can be substituted for liquid fuels will be
 quite limited. Sooner or  later we shall have  to look for alternatives on the
 demand  side, that is, alternatives which reduce our need for liquid fuels. If
 we do so by restrictive means, for example,  by permitting the price  of fuel
 oil and gasoline to rise  significantly,  considerable hardships will result for
 an extended period of time, until structural changes in our transport system,
 commuting patterns, and the layout of cities  are forced to occur. If we an-
 ticipate these structural  changes, at least by  building them into all new  ur-
 ban  developments, many of these  hardships can  be ameliorated.
   A  similar conclusion  emerged  when  the study focussed  on the  en-
 vironmental problems of a number of regions. At  least two urban areas in
 the sample of 47 will not be able to achieve the ambient standards  set by
 EPA, solely through the use of emission  controls on internal  combustion
 engines; and more detailed studies of other  cities and pollutants  are likely
 to provide  additional examples.  The standards may  be too  stringent and
 should be  relaxed. But  when we add in  the problems of auto congestion
 consequent on the growth of populations in urban areas during the next half
 century, it seems highly probable that restrictions  on the use of the private
 automobile in many central cities  will be necessary in any event. Once
 again,  planned structural changes in city form, commuting  patterns, and
 mass transit systems will be required to achieve an orderly and timely tran-
 sition.
  The principal purposes in presenting these examples are to demonstrate
the need for more comprehensive approaches to the problems we face and
to suggest  a situation   in which  more  resource conservation  and  en-
vironmental improvement may be possible at  less economic and social cost
through planned technological,  institutional,  and  urban design changes
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than  by the application of the more traditional  approaches of regulatory
agencies. The latter may ultimately induce the same changes, but the social
cost  of doing so is likely to be much higher. Of course, to apply this ap-
proach one must know in advance just what structural changes are needed,
and then  must find some way to implement them.
Research Implications
  Given the  above discussion and our obvious ignorance about the con-
sequences of alternative  courses of action  that may profoundly affect our
lives, many  research  needs  practically suggest themselves.  Comments
here are  limited to just five points which are more in the nature of caveats
than specific suggestions for research,  but which nevertheless are quite im-
portant in the formulation of detailed projects.
  Long-term comprehensive planning.  There can be no doubt about the
need for  careful, interdisciplinary study of the kinds  of  problem sets
discussed  above, where  questions   of  resource  adequacy and  en-
vironmental quality overlap and are mediated by developments in fields as
disparate as international  politics and urban  design.  Often, the researcher's
response to problem sets of this kind is to suggest more comprehensive
simulation  models.
  The principal problem with such models is that we know exceedingly lit-
tle about  physical,  biological  and social  responses to changes  in en-
vironmental and other factors we wish to study. Before  our level of con-
fidence can  be increased to the point where such models become more
useful  in the policy formation  process; vastly  more information on basic
relationships is needed.
  This is true even in the environmental field, narrowly defined. What, for
example, is the relationship between a given rate and duration of effluent
emissions into a water  body and ambient concentrations of resulting
chemical  compounds in that body;  what is  the relationship between such
concentrations and effects on plant and  animal life associated with this
water body; once man is directly or indirectly affected, how will he adapt to
these changes; and how is he  likely to assess the costs of such changes in
his environment and adaptive  behavior?  Similar and vastly more difficult
questions can  be asked about behavioral relationships in other fields that
should be included  in such comprehensive models.
  It will be along time before an acceptable level of confidence can be
placed in many of the critical relationships. How can we satisfy the need for
comprehensive, long-term planning in the interim?  Perhaps the only thing
that can be done is to rely on the judgment of mature and experienced per-
sons, who come to these problems  with a  certain frame  of  mind:  a
willingness to consider and obtain expert advice on  all important factors
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 that can impinge on the problem, no matter in what field or specialty they
 occur, the ability to maintain a sense of proportions about the relative im-
 portance  of these factors and the usefulness of various tools of analysis.
   Technological development. Many of the constraints we are facing can be
 significantly pushed back in  time  by technological developments.  But in
 many of the fields we are concerned with, these developments will not oc-
 cur without public support and stimulation. Until  recently, for example, there
 has  been little if any interest on the part of private business in the develop-
 ment of alternatives  to the internal combustion  engine, alternatives  to our
 dependence on petroleum, or technological  and institutional systems for
 economical recycling, recovery and waste treatment. If these developments
 are to occur in a timely fashion, the Federal government will  have to rethink
 its   research  priorities and  provide  significantly  greater  stimulus  to
 technological developments, especially in the field of energy, than it has so
 far. Agencies concerned with environmental quality should, quite obviously,
 play a major role  in this process.
  Environmental  consequences. As these technological changes occur,
 priorities  for study of environmental consequences must also  change. If
 some of the above judgments are correct, it is none too soon, for example,
 to devote far greater efforts to the study of the environmental problems of
 shale, tar sands, and coal gasification, the suggestion of standards and of
 methods for the control of these problems. Nor is it any too soon to consider
 the technical and institutional implications of the requirement to store vast
 quantities of nuclear wastes in perpetuity, should the decision be made to
 opt for the fast breeder on a large  scale.
  Experimental approaches.  To obtain  the behavioral  relations that are
 necessary, complete reliance cannot be placed on empirical observations
 drawn from past experience or from cross-section studies; in many cases,
we simply do not have past experience to draw upon.  How, for example,
 can we  estimate the  behavioral response to a significant increase in taxes
on downtown parking when commuters have not been faced with  such a tax
 in the past? In such situations, the only way to  obtain reliable information
 may be to encourage demonstration of  an imposed tax and observe the
 results.
  Admittedly, this approach raises  extremely difficult practical  problems.
 But there are a few areas in which this approach is currently being  used,
and  with imagination it might  be  extended to others. A few experiments in
the use of alternative fuels are under way; so too are some pilot programs
testing  out alternative  systems  of mass  transit.  These activities can and
should be encouraged on a much greater scale. It should be possible to ex-
tend  this  approach  to  the  development  of  alternative  methods  for
establishing and  implementing  effluent charges and other monetary in-
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centives in the environmental field.  For example,  local citizens groups
representing all interested parties could be established to fix rates which
would be subject to revision, upwards or downwards, depending on how
they were working, to meet standards for environmental quality (laid down
nationally or locally).
  Institutional Implications. While the  study reviewed above does not direc-
tly suggest many institutional implications, two suggestions can be raised in
conclusion.
  First, problems can be cut down to  manageable size by splitting them up
into their functional parts and dividing responsibility, or by treating them in
smaller  geographic areas.  In the case  of many environmental problems
many of which must be handled in a fairly comprehensive way, geographic
subdivision makes especially good sense. The great diversity we observed
above in the experience that urban areas face and will increasingly face in
the future lend weight to this suggestion. So too does the problem of ap-
propriately  reflecting the preferences of all  interested parties in making
decisions about  zoning  and other aspects of environmental  quality.
  What  we have  in mind  is the establishment  of regional environmental
management agencies,  with fairly comprehensive authority to set standards
above certain national  minimal levels, to  levy charges, to  guide and
schedule the use of land, water,  and air with respect to pollution emissions,
and to the extent possible within certain overall guidelines, to  reflect the in-
terests of all relevant parties.  At a minimum,  such  a  region should en-
compass a whole metropolitan area, rather than just the central city or major
suburbs within the region.  I believe  that a good start has recently been
made in developing  new  institutions  along these lines; it should be en-
couraged and promoted.
  The second point is that consideration of the problems and  prospects in-
volved in this country's long-term future convinces most researchers that an
important dimension of policy formation is being overlooked. This dimen-
sion  involves the identification, study,  and initiation of actions with respect
to future problems that may require lead times of decades rather than years
to resolve. There is a need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of the
long-term implications of demographic changes,  of future resource demand
and supplies, of possible pollution overload situations and of the underlying
trends in technology and patterns  of social behavior that influence these
factors;  and once future problems are identified, there is a need to un-
dertake  the necessary research  and  development and formulate the
policies  to resolve them. While parts of these tasks are being performed by
isolated  agencies,"coordination and analytical assessment on  a broad level
is lacking,  Most government agencies are of  necessity present-oriented or
mission-oriented and sometimes do not serve these functions adequately;
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nor can they be left to ad hoc commissions as we have tended to do so far.
Thus, we conclude, there would seem to be a need for a small, strategically
located public agency to serve as a "lobby for the future," with the respon-
sibility for undertaking long-term strategic planning for the nation.
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                    Notes  for Chapter 2
 1. Von Foerster, H, et al, "Doomsday: Friday 13 November, A.D. 2026",
   Science, No. 132, 1.960.
 2. Calhoun, John B. "Environmental Design Research and Monitoring from
   an  Evolutionary Perspective."  Paper  prepared  for  Environmental
   Protection Agency.
 3. Boulding,  Kenneth E. "The  Meaning of the 20th Century: The Great
   Transition," Harper & Row,  N.Y., 1965.
 4. "Population Growth and America's Future." Commission on Population
   Growth and the American Future, March 1970.
 5. Fuller,  Buckminster,  "Utopia  or  Oblivion?  The  Prospects  for
   Humanity", Bantam Books, N.Y., 1969.
 6. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, "Projections of the Population  of the United
   States by Age and Sex: 1972 to 2020", Series P-25 No.  493, Decem-
   ber, 1972.
 7. Brown, Harrison "The Challenge of Man's Future", The  Viking Press,
   N.Y., 1954 .
 8. "Population Growth &  America's Future", Commission on Population
   Growth and the American Future (Interim Report), March 1970.
 9. Ibid.
10. Sehaller,  Lyle E., "Impact of the Future", Abingdon Press, Nashville,
   1969.
11. "Population Characteristics:  Birth Expectations  and Fertility,"  U.S.
   Bureau of the Census, June 1972.
12. Sehaller,  Lyle E. op. cit
13. "Population Growth & America's Future," op. cit.
14. Train, Russell  E., Speech delivered  to  Los Angeles World Affairs
   Council, March  29, 1972.
15. The Futurist, Vol. VI, No. 6,  December 1972.
16. Thompson, William I.,  "At the Edge of History: Speculations on the
   Transformation  of Culture", Harper and  Row, N.Y., 1972.
17. The Futurist, op. cit.
18. Doxiadis, Constantinos, "The  Future of Human Settlements", Nobel
   Symposium Paper, Stockholm, 1969.
19. Theobald, Robert, "Futures Conditional", The Bobbs-Merrill Company,
   Inc., 1972.
20. Mesthene, Emmanuel G., "Technological Change: Its Impact on Man
   and Society". New American Library, N.Y., 1970.
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21.Traviss, Irene, "Our Tool-Making Society1', Prentice-Hall, Inc., Engle-
   wood Cliffs, N.J.,  1972.
22. McHale, John,  "The Changing Context for Management", The Con-
   ference Board,  N.Y.,  1972.
23. Kahn, Herman and Bruce-Briggs, B., "Things to Come; Thinking About
   the Seventies and Eighties," The Macmillan Company, N.Y., 1972.
24. "Ecology: The Man-Made Planet",  Kaiser News,  1970.
25. Fuller, R.  Buckminster, op.  cit. .
26. Thompson, William I., op. cit.
27. Fuller, R.  Buckminster, op.  cit.
28. "U.S. Population  Density Increased by 7 Persons Per Square  Mile,
   1970 Census Shows," U.S. Bureau of the Census Press Release, June
   22, 1971.
29. "Fifty-Eight Percent of U.S. Population in 248 Urbanized Areas,  Cen-
   sus  Shows,"  U.S.  Bureau of the Census, Press Release,  Feb. 22,
   1972.
30. This illustrative formulation follows Ronald G. Ridker, "Population and
   Pollution in the United States",  Science, June 1972,  p. 1085; Also,
   Paul R.  Erlich and John P.  Holden, "impact of  Population  Growth",
   Volume  III of the Population Commission Research Reports, Washing-
   ton,  D.C.:  GPO, 1972.
31. Ridker,  Ronald  G., Editor. Vol, III of the Population Commission Re-
   search Reports. Washington, D.C.:  GPO 1972.
32. Ridker,  Ronald G. "Resource and Environmental Consequences of
   Population Growth in the  United  States", GPO, 1972.
33. Singer,  Fred  S. "The  Environmental Implications of Zero Population
   Growth." Paper prepared for Environmental Perfection Agency.
34. "Population and the American Future", U.S. Commission on Popula-
   tion  Growth and the American Future, Washington, D.C., 1972.
35. In the E-H case, Philadelphia will also be above the standard in 2000.
   The fact that the E-H case presents more  regional environmental dif-
   ficulties than do the other cases results from a combination of factors
   the most important of which  is the assumption that land area expands
   in proportion  to population.
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3
ANALYSIS OF  ECOSYSTEM  CAPACITY
Introduction
  An ecosystem is a set of living things and their environment. The system
concept  emphasizes the  interdependence  and interrelatedness  of  all
elements  of the ecosystem. The term and  concept can be applied to
systems of any size. A pond, a region or the complete biosphere can each
be studied as an ecosystem. Whatever the size,  an ecosystem  has finite
limitations. The natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, available
to sustain life in any  period of time are limited.
  When we apply the ecosystem concept to a geopolitical region we  see
that the natural resources available to produce goods and services,  Gross
Regional  Product  (GRP),  are  limited. Given  the  inevitable population
growth, accompanied by some economic growth discussed in the previous
chapter, we see that  ultimately some limit must be  reached. Whether  this
limit is near or whether we should be concerned about a doomsday, we
dont't know. We do know that the public demands a high quality of life. This
requires use of resources not only for goods and services but also  for in-
tangibles and amenities. Planners and decision-makers must address the
problems of  providing  material  goods  and  amenities  to  growing
populations.
  In the past the concept of carrying capacity has  been defined as the
ability of a region  to sustain some population, usually a specific animal
population. In this Chapter, we will apply the concept in a broader sense.
We  define carrying capacity as  the ability of the natural  resources of a
region to provide material goods and services and  amenities  to a human
population while maintaining some acceptable quality of life.  With  this
definition  carrying  capacity analysis becomes a tool for planners and
decision-makers to evaluate alternative goals and plans.
  The  discussion of  carrying capacity analysis is taken from the invited
paper  by E. K.  Peterson. He presents a method for establishing  a ben-
chmark standard for quality of life and evaluating  alternative combinations
of population,  GRP and  lev'els of pollution control. Using first approximation
numbers, the  concept is applied to the Pacific Northwest.
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  The carrying capacity analysis presented by Peterson is an example of
the multidisciplinary  analysis  required  to  determine the  relationships
among the many factors influencing the environment and the Quality of Life.
The need for such methodologies was discussed in the Study of Critical En-
vironmental Problems (SCEP) sponsored by MIT in 1970. The  major fin-
dings of this study are presented, in summary form, to introduce Peterson's
paper. The "Spaceship Earth" concept is also described in the introductory
material.  This popularized  model  illustrates the finite limitations of our
resources and the interdependence of all elements of the biosphere—facts
of life which can be dealt with by means of analyses  such as presented by
Peterson.
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Ecology of the Biosphere
  The Study of Critical Environmental Problems was sponsored by MIT in
1970 as a means of providing information for the 1972 U.N. Conference on
the Human Environment and for other environmental activitiesd). A total of
115 scientists, representing many disciplines, participated in the study. The
major conclusions and recommendations of the study are presented below.
  A major conclusion of the SCEP study was  that data of all types are
lacking and that new methods of collecting, compiling and standardizing
data are required. Peterson's paper presents a first effort at compling data
describing the resources available for producing goods and  amenities in
the  Pacific Northwest region.
  The SCEP report notes  that agriculture, mining and  industry are  in-
creasing at a rate of above five percent annually, approximately twice as fast
as global population growth. Man is using natural resources at rates greater
than the rates of erosion and deposition; the distribution of resources is
changing.
  The gradual pollution-caused attrition of natural systems is a measure of
the total impact of man on the environment. Most  pollutants affect predators,
specific  species and general  biological activities—all  of which must be
balanced to  maintain a healthy ecology.
  The SCEP recommends an intensive program  of technology assessment
to determine the effects  of pollutants, to identify the sources of pollutants
and to integrate such information into plans for technological development.
It also recommends a program of environmental assessment to determine
the distribution routes of pollutants and their passage through ecosystems.
  In a broad  sense the carrying capacity analysis presented here can be
used as a tool  for technology and environmental assessment. One such
analysis of pollution as a function  of regional production and  population
level is presented  by  Peterson.
  Speaking of global climatic effects, the SCEP  report states that man may
affect climate by introducing, through fossil fuel combustion, carbon dioxide
into the  atmosphere. Recently,  the carbon dioxide density has  been  in-
creasing by about  0.2 percent per year. The study estimates, based on a
"primitive model,"  that doubling the carbon dioxide concentration would
result in an increase of about 2°C in surface temperature, which could lead
 to long term warming of the planet. The study concludes that climatic
change as a result of changes in the carbon dioxide content of the at-
mosphere is unlikely in the near term, however, the long-term effects could
be serious and continued study and monitoring are required.
  Man introduces  significant quantities  of sulfates, nitrates and hydrocar-
 bons into the atmosphere. The optical properties of these particles and how
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they scatter and absorb energy from the sun and the surface of the earth
must be studied, improved measurement techniques must be developed
and  specific particle content must  be  monitored  to improve  our un-
derstanding of their impact.
  The  report emphasizes that the system  of  ocean  and air  currents,
evaporation and precipation, surface and  cloud reflection and absorption,
form a complex feedback system  which  maintains the global energy in
balance. The delicacy of this balance and the consequences of disturbing it
make it important to assess the present and future impact of man's activities
on this system.
  In summary, the SCEP report cites the  need for more data and further
study. It emphasizes the balance which must be maintained between the
many factors influencing  the environment  A further  example  of the
limitations and interrelatedness of the  biosphere is presented in the next
section.
The Spaceship Earth Concept


  Comparing the earth and its life support systems to a spaceship is a vivid
way of illustrating the finite nature of our ecosystem. As described by Lyn-
ton Caldwell (2), this model

       "Illustrates relationships between man and his environment that
    are basic to his welfare  and survival. Ecological facts that man
    prefers to evade on earth are  universally acknowledged for the
    spaceship. For example, no one doubts that there is a limit to the
    number of passengers that the ship can accommodate, and the
    need for reserve capacity to meet unforeseeable contingencies is
    not questioned.  It is obvious that the spaceship cannot indefinitely
    transform  its nutrients into waste.
       If  extruded  from  the  ship  as  waste,  energy  sources  are
    irretrievably lost; if accumulated as waste, viability of the ship is
    ultimately  destroyed from within. There is  no escape from  the
    necessity  of recycling  waste  materials.  For the duration of  the
    voyage, the ship must remain in ecological balance. Disruption of
    any of its systems may mean disaster for the mission and the crew.
    Systems  maintenance  is,  therefore, one of the essential  com-
    ponents of a program of  space exploration:"
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  Comparing the ecology of the spaceship to that of the earth,  Caldwell
says,

      "The ...  (earth) is a unified system dependent upon  the co-
    ordinated and continuing functioning of interrelating systems and
    parts.  It has surpluses, redundancy, and backup capacity, but its
    resources are nevertheless limited.  Because carrying capacity is
    one of its limits,  it must so far as possible recycle its resources
    unless it can obtain them at feasible cost from external sources.
    Changes in the system must be studied in relation to their  total ef-
    fects,  because altered relationships among the parts, even in-
    tended improvements, may adversely affect the performance of the
    whole. Maintenance  of the system and  its subsystems must be
    watched, for failure at any critical point could lead to the destruc-
    tion of the entire enterprise."
Implications  for  Today

  The SCEP report discusses the balance  which must  exist among all
elements of the  biosphere and  states that  man  has caused significant
damage to the  environment. It presents specific recommendations for im-
proving the data available and recommends methodologies which must be
developed to support environmental planning. The Spaceship Earth con-
cept emphasizes the finite limitations of our resources and again stresses
the interdependence among the  elements of the biosphere.
  Although these discussions focus on the total biosphere and global en-
vironmental problems, the SCEP report notes that the existence of global
problems does not necessarily imply a need for global solutions. Most
corrective action must be applied at the national, regional and  local levels,
where the sources of pollution and the activities of man can be controlled
and regulated.
  To control and manage the environment at  the local  or regional level
requires information and data to define and quantify the factors affecting the
environment. New methods of analysis which  help  planners  and policy-
makers evaluate the probable results  of alternative  actions are required.
The carrying capacity analysis presented  by  Peterson is one approach  to
such analysis.  He presents data quantifying the  resources available for
producing  goods and for producing   amenities. The latter  permits an
evaluation  of the Quality  of Life available under  alternative policies. He
describes the relationships between population levels, production of goods
and energy, pollution, pollution control and the Quality of Life.
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 The  Classical  Fundamental Problem of Population
 and  Industrial  Growth

   As a prelude to  his discussion  of carrying  capacity analysis,  Peterson
 summarizes  relationships  between population and industrial output as
 follows:	
   Frequently natural  resource and environmental  quality problems have
 been equated with population. However, human members are only one part
 of the equation. The other part is the goods and services (gross product)
 man  produces with energy applied to machines. This energy may be
 derived from domestic animals, from hydro power, from burning wood or
 fossil fuels, from  nuclear or direct solar sources. For a nation or a large
 region the consumption of  natural resources and the potential detrimental
 impact on the environment is assumed to increase roughly in proportion to
 the increase in the gross  product. However,  there are variations in the
 potential impact from basic industries as compared to secondary industries,
 or  between  individual  basic  industries;  also the relationship can be
 modified substantially by recycling  and  by  other forms of pollution control.
   Gross product  also is assumed  to  vary in  proportion  to energy con-
 sumption. The  relationship between income, gross product and energy
 use, on an annual per capita basis for selected nations, is shown in Figures
 1, 2, and 3. Although the relationship has been approximately correct in the
 past it is not necessarily inviolate for all time.  But at present there is in-
 sufficient evidence  upon which to base an assumption of a change. On a
 national basis there was a slight downward trend in the use of energy per
 unit of GNP between 1950 and 1968,  but since then it has been  rising.
 Per Capita Share  of GNP
   For convenience the per capita share of GNP in 1965 dollars, is used as
 the measurement  of goods and services produced.  In 1967 the situation in
 one affluent nation and and one underdeveloped nation was as shown in
 Table 1.

                              Table  1
               Comparison of  Per Capita Consumption1

                                             United States      India
 Per Capita Share GNP in 1967                      $3,490
Energy Equivalent Required (tons of coal)              12        0.25
i,1/oo
Steel (pounds per capita per year)                    1,^00       30

1"The Next Ninety Years," proceedings of a conference sponsored by the Office for Industrial
Associates at the California Institute of Technology (1967), Harrison Brown, Professor of
Geochemistry.

                                92

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CO
00
                        THOUSANDS U.S.  DOLLAR  EQUIVALENTS

                     4321

                     I         I          I          I
                                                                 INDIA
                       Based upon 1968  data.  Standard Oil Company of  California Bulletin, 1970,
      BARRELS OIL EQUIVALENT

10     20     30
20

 I
ko
 I
50

J_
 60

J
                                                                                                  U.S.
                                                                                                CANADA
                                                                                      SWEDEN
                                                                                 UNITED KINGDOM
                                                                               WEST GERMANY
                                                                             FRANCE
                                                                          JAPAN
                                                                    MEXICO
                                Figure 1. Annual Per Capita Income and Energy Consumption

-------
BILLIONS  OF  $  1952
      QUADRILLION BTU
                                 GROSS
                                NATIONAL
                                PRODUCT
                                                                        1990
                              Actual
Projected
SOURCE:   Office of Oil  and  Gas, Department of the Interior, March 1971.
                 Figure 2. Energy Use and Gross National  Product

-------
en
                       QUADRILLION BTU

                           160-
140-


120-


100-


 80-


 60-


 40-


 20-


  0
                                     1  QUADRILLION  BTU
                                          EQUALS
                                   965  BILLION  CU.  FT.  GAS
                                            OR
                                    197 MILLION Bbl  OIL
                                            OR
                                    38  MILLION  TONS  COAL
                                                    ACTUAL
                                                         ESTIMATED
                                                                                                    OIL
                                                                          NUCLEAR
                                      I       I      I       I       I      I              II
                             1900   1910    1920    1930    1940   1950  I960   1970   1980   1990    2000
                         SOURCE:   Office of  Oil  and Gas, Department of the Interior,  March  1971
                                        Figure 3. U.S. Energy Consumption in the 20th Century

-------
   It appears clear that the total impact per capita upon the environment is
much greater in industrialized countries such as the United States than in
underdeveloped countries such as India. The latter uses far less land and
natural  resources,  far less  goods and services, and causes far less
pollution on a per capita basis. In other words, in India most of the en-
vironmental stress is caused directly by the human population. In the United
States, which has only moderate population  density,  the bulk of the en-
vironmental stress results from economic activity.
Per Capita Servant Machines
   A portion of the gross  product is produced by unassisted  human  labor.
Through the use of energy and technology the capacity of an average in-
dividual to produce goods and services multiplies as a nation becomes
more  industrialized. One way of illustrating the relationship is to assign a
portion  of the per capita production of gross product to humans and the
remainder  to their "servant machines" (3).
   An  exact dollar  figure  representing what an average  person  could
produce without modern  powered  equipment (exclusive  of  domestic
animals) probably  cannot be  established. In   1870, according to the
Historical Statistics of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, the per
capita share of the GNP  in the United States was $440,  in 1965 dollars.
Earlier statistics are not available. The  1870 figure probably was above the
world base due to the very favorable natural resource supply situation and
rudimentary industrialization. On the other hand  the $88 figure for India in
1967  appears low for use as a worldwide base. Much of the economy of In-
dia, and other undeveloped nations, is barter and subsistence. This  is not
conducted through established markets and therefore not priced in national
statistics. A figure of $250 per year appears to be a good compromise and
more  realistic. It would approximate 4  kilowatt years of electrical energy or
the energy  equivalent resulting from the combustion of about 1,700 pounds
of coal.  Lacking a more refined comparison, let us make this assumption.
This would mean that in the Uited States in  1967, the average person had
13 "servant machines" ($3,490/$250 less  1) at his disposal—each  "ser-
vant"  producing as many beneficial outputs, and using as much resources
and space and causing as much pollution in the process as its owner. This
is  without considering  the amount of pollution control.
   In comparison, a citizen of Sweden had 8.5 servant machines; Canada, 8;
West Germany, 5.6; Japan, 2.8; Russia, 2.3; and mainland China or  India
only a fraction (4).
   In 2020,  with  increasing affluence,  the number of  servant machines is
projected to increase to 61 per person in the United States. However, the
end point of uncontrolled expansion is total  destruction. Sooner or teter we
                                  96

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must achieve a sustainable balance between the rate we use and exploit
basic resources and the capacity of the environment to support such use
and abuse. As the British technologist, Dr. Dennis Gabor, expresses it (5):
    "Exponential curves  grow to  infinity only in mathematics.  In the
    physical world, they either turn around and saturate or they break
    down catastrophically."
  It is possible that, if environmental quality is to be maintained, the total
number of humans that could be sustained in a given region would tend to
decrease as individual affluence  (servant machines)  increases; or con-
versely, the greater the number of people  at a given time the fewer there
would be who could "live like kings." As Garrett Hardin in "Tragedy of the
Commons" points out, Jeremy Bentham's 19th Century principle  "The
greatest good to the greatest number in the long run" is a mathematical and
biological impossibility  (6).  The two variables  cannot be  maximized
simultaneously.

Limitations of  Classical Planning


  Peterson believes that traditional methods of planning, based on ex-
trapolation of historical trends is no  longer adequate. We  need a sys-
tematic method of identifying long-range goals and evaluating alternative
plans.

  Concern in the past about  comprehensive long  range  goals has  been
minimal. There is little understanding of the long term effects that different
rates and kinds of growth would have on the quality of life. There has been
little concerted action toward adopting coordinated  long range  goals as a
formal  state  or  regional  policy. There is  no agreement  on what mix of
material goals and intangibles are needed for the highest attainable quality
of life. Each  person,  each corporation,  each  governmental  unit,  each
citizens' organization  historically has  pursued his  or  its own  ends. The
result has been unplanned, uncoordinated and  uncontrolled growth. This
kind of growth historically has produced in the United States a high material
standard  of  living. But it also is increasingly  yielding undesirable en-
vironmental results.
Classical Forecasts for  the  Pacific Northwest
  The 1967 forecast of the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department
of Commerce, and Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture (OBERS), to the year 2020 include a change in population for
the Northwest region from 5.9 million in 1965 to 12.7 million (216%); and
                                 97

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in per capita annual personal income,  in constant 1965 dollars,  from
$2,785 in 1965 to $13,189 (474%). In per capita share of gross regional
product,  they project a change from $3,520 to $16,700.  Such increases
would result in 10.2 times the production of goods and services that existed
in 1965 or from $20.4 billion to $208 billion in constant 1965 dollars. The
1971 projections based upon 1967 data show population in 2020 as 11.97
million and  per  capita income as $13,181, in 1965 dollars. These are
shown graphically in Figure 4.
  Similar forecasts,  including  some consideration of individual  resource
capability, frequenty have been accepted by planners and decision makers
as goals  and are used to forecast the long range "needs" and "demands"
for other  national and local programs such as public lands and resources,
transportation, energy supply,  housing,  health  and education. The Battelle
Memorial Institute and the Bonneville Power  Administration  used such
methods  for projecting Pacific Northwest long  range growth in population,
employment, and income.
Questions Unanswered by the Forecasts
  This type of economic projection has proven to be a reasonably accurate
forecast during the past 50 years and no other system for identifying goals
has been readily available. However, it frequently ignores natural  resource
supply constraints, assumes unlimited growth,  and fails to quantify either
the combined capacity of all Northwest natural  resources to sustain growth
or the  effect that the projected growth and economic development would
have on the livability, the congestion, the air and water pollution,  and the
natural or the intangible values. Specifically, the following questions must
be answered:
  1.  Would the result be mining without renewal of the natural resources?
  2.  Would  the capacity  of our natural systems  to assimilate man-made
     waste be overwhelmed?
  3.  Would  Northwest conditions in the year 2000 be comparable to con-
     ditions   in  1972  in  the  Los Angeles   area  or the  East Coast
     megalopolis?
  4.  Would  people have  a  higher material standard of living but enjoy it
     less?
New Concepts for Planning
  To answer questions such as those posed  in the preceeding Section
and to incorporate alternative  approaches to solving these problems, the
study draws  only slightly on either the pure ecologists or the economists,
whether  classical  or contemporary.   Instead  it utilizes  contemporary
                                 98

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                                                                $157.8
                                                               (BILLION)
    T

    8

    6


    4
    2 -
 o
 CO
 <
     1 -
    6 -
    4 -
    2 -
  	_. TOTAL PERSONAL INCC
  	 PER CAPITA INCOME
  	 POPULATION
  $4.4
(BILLION)

   3-0
(MILLION)
          $1,400
  I
1929
 \
40
 T
50
59
I
70
 I
80
                                     I     I
                                    90  2000
                                                         I
                                                        10
                                                    $13,200
                                                      12.0
                                                    (MILLION)
20
SOURCE:  Office of Business Economics,  U.S. Department of Commerce; and
        Economic Research Service,  U.S.  Department of Agriculture  (OBERS)
        1967 base year (1965 dollars)
 Figure 4. Pacific Northwest Growth in Totaf Personal Income, Income Per
 Capita and Population from 1929 to 1967, with Projections to 2020
                                    99

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multidisciplinary efforts that attempt to gain a balanced perspective of the
two, such as:

  "Tragedy_of the Commons", Garrett Hardin, 1968. (6).

  "Resources and Man", Preston Cloud, Ed., National Academy of Scien-
ces. (7).

  "Man's Impact on the Global Environment" Report of SCEP, sponsored
by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1970. (8).

  "Population,  Resources,  Environment",  Paul  R.  Ehrlich &  Anne H.
Ehrlich. (9).

  "The Closing Circle", Barry Commoner.  (10).

  "A  Blueprint for Survival", in The Ecologist, January 1972. (11).

  "Report of the Commission on Population and  the American Future".
(12).

  "Economic Growth and Environmental Decay", David W. Seckler & Paul
W. Barkey. (13).
Assumed Limitations to Growth
  Any function monotonically increasing  in a positive non-fractional
geometric progression will approach an infinite amount. This is commonly
referred to as exponential growth. Since  land and other resources are finite
and since population and gross regional product increase in a geometric
series, a limit will be reached if growth continues. One natural law that is as
immutable as the law of gravity is that nothing physical on this planet can
expand forever. Based upon these principles the  assumptions  are made
that:
  (1)  It is physically impossible for either the gross regional product or the
population to expand forever.
  (2)  A state of equilibrium must be reached eventually, the unknowns are
when  and how.
  (3)  At some point in time, further increases  in population and gross
regional  product begin reducing the overall quality of life.
  The foregoing assumptions challenge the American ethic—the doctrine
of "manifest destiny"—of Keynesian economics-Hhat growth is progress
and progress is good—that the  "invisible guiding hand" of the market
                                100

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place will automatically produce the optimum mix of material and intangible
benefits. There has been relatively little scientific effort devoted to studying
such basic issues (14).
  Reluctance to tackle the basic issues  directly may arise because it is
contrary to the growth drive that has been  United States gospel since 1776
and has in fact motivated much of  mankind since prehistoric times.  But
changes in our way of life and the quality of living are increasing rapidly.
Since 1950 the real output of goods and services in the  United States  has
exceeded the total for the previous 330 years. What we do now, or fail to do,
fixes future patterns of life. We can no longer afford to approach the future
haphazardly. The choice is whether to plan for and guide future changes or
be engulfed by them.  This paper is devoted to exploring  in a systematic
manner one of the possible ways of identifying long range goals, using the
Pacific Northwest as an example.
New Assumptions for Planning Guidelines
  Most of the planning assumptions to date have been that the future will be
an extension  of the past; that population increases and industrial  growth
inevitably will continue at  an exponential rate and the proper course of ac-
tion is to supply the highways, electrical power, water,  urban expansion,
and all other things needed  to accommodate this growth; that plans  are
needed only to organize the inevitable; that any problems which result from
the growth will be solved by  using science and technology to manipulate
natural ecosystems.
  There is a  rapidly developing differing view that (15):
  (1)  Today's problems are a result of successes as defined in yesterday's
terms.
  (2)  An extension  of the past is not the right prescription for the  future.
  (3)  The primary planning goals for this nation should be altered—with
high quality livability as the major long term objective (including a major im-
provement in  the economic position of many of our citizens) and economic
development  shaped around  this overriding determinant.
  (4)  Science and technology, if oriented  toward harmony with nature, can,
within limits, assist in  reaching the highest attainable quality of life goals.
  (5)  Through social  and  political  action it is possible to  encourage,
modify, or block growth and development trends  so that they are compatible
with those long range goals which are  supported by a popular consensus.
  Unquestionably, the attainment of the present United States material stan-
dard of living coupled with a high level of personal  freedom and  leisure
time has been a magnificient achievement—the  envy of much of the world.
But there were unforeseen and costly  consequences too. Now there  are
new challenges. The foresight exercised in today's planning decisions and
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actions  (or lack of actions) will determine the  quality of life and material
standard of living available for our children and grandchildren. Land, water,
and  air resources must  be recognized as inseparable components of a
single life  support system,  not as independent reservoirs  for both raw
materials and waste disposal to be appropriated and exploited at will. Some
way  must be found to balance and harmonize both economic and ecologic
goals while maintaining our democratic principles.
Alternative Goals
  If the desire of the people is to control their own destiny and build a future
which differs from an extension of the past it will be  necessary to decide
upon long range goals and tailor long range plans and action programs to
best  fit  those  goals. It would require changes in many of our traditional
procedures  and priorities, Among them is the system of preparing long
range plans based primarily upon the  projection of historical growth trends
in population and economic  activity.
  We thus have four alternative fundamental growth policies we  can adopt
  Alternative one. Arbitrarily  adopt a  "no growth" policy.
  Alternative two.  Make  every effort to accelerate growth.
  Alternative three. Combine  several scenarios of pollution, natural beauty,
living space, and other environmental quality trends with several alternate
economic projections to present a better balanced picture (quality of life-in-
dices) of the possible futures.
  Alternative four. Manage and control our use of resources on a carrying
capacity basis.  This could be a steady state  scenario under alternative
three.  The  carrying  capacity alternative appears to have  considerable
potential for identifying  sustainable  balances  between ecology and the
economy. It is a new approach. In contrast, the other three approaches are
either in use or being explored by others.

  Carrying  capacity analysis provides  a means of  identifying alternative
goals for population and  economic growth, quality of life and quality of the
environment. It is based  on the assumption that uncontrolled growth of the
population and economy of a region  cannot be sustained forever.
 Carrying Capacity Analysis  of the Pacific  Northwest
  The remainder of this paper presents, within the limits of available in-
 formation, the basic features of a prototype system for identifying different
 combinations of population  levels, economic activity levels, and intangible
 value levels that are possible for the Pacific  Northwest—an approach that
 identifies both the limits of  basic natural resources of a region to support
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future growth and the desirable and undesirable consequences of various
levels of growth.
  Carrying capacity is an ancient principle in man's relationship to the land.
It is  an  established  method in the management of renewable resources
such as  agricultural land, forests, watersheds,  and wildlife, but has not
previously been applied to the entire economy and environment of a region.
It was the way of life for mankind prior to the industrial and technological
age  beginning  in  the  early 1800's—the age when man  began the ex-
ponential exploitation of non-renewable resources. It represents capacity
under  a  steady state or equilibrium  conditions  with  only  moderate
oscillations in population but with continuous invention to increase choices
and  provide greater diversity.
  It has been established that most, if not all, species of wild animals have
instincts which usually  tend to prevent overcrowding in their native habitat.
They frequently thrive best at less than the  maximum density which  would
be  possible  with  the  available food  and shelter, etc. In other words,
sustained carrying capacity estimates for different species of wildlife must
recognize population  density  in addition  to other constraints.  There  is
growing evidence, but  no conclusive proof and  no consensus among ex-
perts, that similar principles apply to human society. Congested sections  of
some of our urban centers, for example, are experiencing social unrest and
appear too crowded. There is growing evidence that there is a basic human
need for natural open space and there may be an optimum  population and
acreage for individual urban areas. The carrying capacity in visitor days  is
being determined for parks, golf courses,  hunting and fishing areas, wilder-
ness areas, and similar recreation lands.
  In the Pacific Northwest,  both the bulk of the basic industries and the high
quality scenery  and outdoor amenities  are dependent upon renewable
natural resources—forests and  grassland,  mountains  and valleys,  rivers
and lakes, agricultural land, urban and industrial land, seaports, ample high
quality water, hydroelectric power sites.a continuous influx  of clean air off
the Pacific Ocean and  good climate.  Industries based upon location, such
as those manufacturing transportation  or electronic equipment or metals
from imported ones, find the Northwest a desirable location because of its
renewable natural  resources.  The  secondary  industries,  which  are
generated by the basic industries, are similarly oriented.
  The only basic Northwest industry which the study considers to  be  based
primarily upon non-renewable resources is  mining. But the Northwest sup-
ply of its most important minerals such as stone, limestone, phosphate, cop-
per, lead, zinc, and nickel should last from 50 years to indefinitely. The Nor-
thwest presently is not self-sufficient in several vital minerals such as oil
and gas,  iron or aliminum ore. But this is  no more of a disadvantage to the
Northwest than  it is to  other mineral short  regions of the  nation.
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  With such a preponderance of the economy and the livability of the Nor-
thwest  based  upon  renewable  natural  resources now  and  for  the
foreseeable future,  would it  be  possible  and  desirable  to  determine
carrying capacity for the Northwest in terms of population and production of
goods and services per year (gross product)? Such an undertaking would
require defining benchmark optimum needs in terms of gross product per
capita as well  as intangibles per capita. Such an  approach does  offer
promise as a way to achieve a "balance of nature"  under the spaceship
earth concept.  It offers  promise as an  alternate to the  historical trend
technique. It might avoid some of the pitfalls and  uncertainties of long range
forecasting.
Methodology for Carrying Capacity Analysis
  There are several techniques,  very sophisticated, that might be used to
apply the carrying  capacity concept. This initial study attempts to con-
centrate on the major principles and critical factors, present them in a direct
skeletal fashion, and illustrate the concept in the Pacific Northwest with first
approximation numbers. The procedure is summarized as follows:
  1. Determine  benchmark  standards for  measuring Quality of Life.
Average per capita income will be chosen as the parameter; an optimum
apportionment of  income  among material  necessities and intangibles,
based on social theory, will be identified.
  2. Assess the Gross Regional  Product (GRP) and the amount of pollution
in the base year (1965). Then  determine the  relationship between ad-
ditional GRP and pollution with  different levels of pollution control. Also
assess potential constraints.
  3. Assess the utilization of natural resources in the base year (1965) for
GRP and for intangible purposes and their potential for the future on a
carrying capacity basis. Assess  potential constraints.
  4.  Within  carrying  capacity  constraints  identify  the  optional  goals
available for future growth in the Pacific Northwest in terms  of various com-
binations of population and per capita GRP.  Determine the relationship of
each combination to (a) overall pollution levels in 1965, and (b) the quality
of life benchmarks.
A Quality of  Life Benchmark
  The first  step  in the process  of applying  carrying capacity analysis to
identifying alternative "acceptable" long range goals for a region is to
determine  the  various combinations  of economic  affluence   and en-
vironmental quality that are attainable and how close these would be to the
"optimum." In other words a technique is needed to measure the trade-offs
between  material quantity  and intangible quality. There is no universal
                                104

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agreement concerning what would constitute an optimum quality of life in a
particular geographic area for humans. To a degree, such perceptions are
culturally oriented. However, probably a majority in the United States would
agree that in an ideal environment the basic needs of every citizen would be
satisfied and he or she would have full opportunity for personal fulfillment
and have the assurance that his  or her children and grandchildren, ad in-
finitum, would have the  same opportunities.
  Personal  fulfillment ordinarily means reasonable opportunity to develop
one's innate potential for creativity and constructive effort for the long term
benefit of both himself or herself and society as a whole. In an optimum en-
vironment there would be  ample challenge,  diversity, and inspiration to
satisfy a wide range of interests. There would also be moderate stress and
competition—not an effortless society on the one hand or a ruthless, over-
demanding one on the other. Every human would be needed, and respec-
ted as an individual. Everyone would have personal freedom and freedom
of choice to pursue his own goals, whether they be economic, moral, social,
or aesthetic. There would be ample opportunity for a wide variety of cultures
and life styles.  No one would be forced to reside where he either suffered
from lack of human companionship or felt hemmed  in by too many people.
  There has been little scientific  effort devoted to systematically identifying
the elements that comprise an optimum quality of life. Yet if the people are
to guide their future destiny, the  ultimate goals must be described in both
comprehensive and understandable terms. One way to come to grips with
such a complicated problem, in the absence of adequate information  about
all its aspects, is to propose a basic conceptual framework and subject it to
review, revision, improvement, and  refinement. This description of a quality
of life benchmark represents such a  pioneering effort. It is needed  as  a
reference  point for measuring  the  quantity-quality  trade-offs.  Both the
material  elements  and  the intangible  elements are  essential to  the
realization of the desired quality of life, but one of the  greatest potential
threats this nation  faces is that the intangible values will be  irretrievably
destroyed during  the  pursuit of short term, material  values.  Indeed, the
tragic evidence of such myopia is already apparent in too many parts of this
nation.
  To better their quality  of life the  people of nations throughout the  world
historically  have  placed   initial  emphasis  upon acquiring  the  basic
necessities. Frequently this required sufficient concentrations of population,
and knowledge of  science  and  technology to  make more efficient use of
available energy, automation, and mass production. Similar economies of
scale usually have been  necessary  to  maintain  adequate facilities for
security, education,  health,  government, and entertainment.
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  As soon as per capita income exceeds the amount needed to satisfy the
most essential  portions  of  basic  and  immediate  material  needs  for
existence  such  as food, clothing,  housing,  security,  health, and tran-
sportation, the average person's (and nation's) interest and emphasis shifts
to longer  range and  more  intangible  items (and our  most perishable
amenities) such  as education, recreation, clean air, clean water, quietness,
open space, personal elbow room,  variety, and stimulation, cultural op-
portunities,  attractive design  and landscaping, natural scenic beauty and
wilderness. Usually such amenities require a substantial number of servant
machines per capita, including those used to control the adverse effects of
production. Because of the increasing affluence and rising expectations of
the average person, it appears that in the next century there will be sharply
increasing interest in  cultural  and  aesthetic pursuits  and other quality
aspects of the environment in the United States—an  interest that was very
low key during the past century—all concentrating on a land, water, and air
resource base that is finite.
  Other nations  are similarly motivated.  Those struggling for an economic
toehold have little energy left for planning long range  improvements; or as
John Galbraith expresses it,  "The natural priorities of a society proceed
from getting the goods to getting the surroundings in which they can be en-
joyed" (16). The United States  now has the economic capability to invest
heavily  in  measures  designed  to  enhance the well-being of  future
generations.
        The Hierarchy of Human Needs as a QOL Rationale
  Psychologists  who have been studying human motivation in the United
States refer to the relationship as the "hierarchy of human needs." Those
needs are depicted as a triangle consisting of five compartments with
physiological needs at the base and self-fulfillment needs at the apex. The
arrangement indicates that a need at one level tends to be the primary
motivation after the most essential, but not necessarily all, of the needs at
the lower levels  have been satisfied (Figure 5). There are many individual
exceptions, and  the  need  categories  tend  to  blend and  intermingle.
However,  on the average, after the physiological and security needs are
satisfied, energy is available for satisfying more intangible needs, assisting
others and  providing  for future  generations.  Of  course,  without  the
necessary motivation, it may  not be  used for such purposes.
  The hierarchy  theory is that with each step upward (or downward) a per-
son's, or a nation's, short range goals and priorities change- The long range
hazard that some can clearly foresee,  and others do not yet perceive, is that
a nation's efforts to satisfy the basic material needs for an ever increasing
population can foreclose the  opportunities for eventually satisfying the in-
tangible self-fulfillment needs essential for an optimum quality of  life.
                                 106

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5.   SELF FULFILLMENT NEEDS

    Sense of accomplishment and achievement
    of full capability; acceptance of new
    challenges; broadening of horizons of
    interest; self actualization


4.   EGO NEEDS
    Achievement of independence,
    self-esteem, deserved respect
    of  peers, recognition, confidence

3.  SOCIAL NEEDS            	

    Sense of belonging to a group and
    acceptance by other people, love
    and affection

2.  SECURITY NEEDS
    Protection from physical harm, assurance
    of continuing income and employment,
    protection of home (including land and
    natural  resources which provide the basis
    for quality of life over the  long term)

    PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS     	
    Food,  shelter, clothing, sleep,
    reproduction of the species,
    identity, stimulation, etc.
               Figure 5. The Hierarchy of Human Needs (17).
                                     107

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  The hierarchy of needs theory may be useful as an illustration but the
reader should be aware that it has limitations; it is not universally accepted.
Also the emphasis on the various steps varies with different cultures bet-
ween nations  and within an individual  nation.
                 Marginal Utility as a QOL Rationale
  As a supplement, and for those who have reservations about using the
"hierarchy of  needs" as an illustration,  the "marginal utility" approach is
presented  also. As Seckler and Barkley explain it (13):
       "In  the developed  countries goods and services  have ac-
     cumulated in upper middle class homes to such an extent that the
     marginal utility of "things"  has surely dropped. At the same time,
     fresh air,  clean water,  wilderness  and quiet (things  often called
     "amenities") have one by one become more scarce, more dear".
  The curves  in  Figure  6  show  the decreasing marginal  utility (MU)  of
goods over time and the  increasing  marginal utility of amenities over time.
  Under such conditions the wisdom of producing more and more goods
should be questioned since, by  moving into the future (past time period P in
Figure 6) the added utility of goods and services would be  lower than the
marginal utility of the amenities that had to be sacrificed in order to produce
the goods. At point P1,  amenities with  marginal values of OD have been
sacrificed to obtain goods with  marginal utility of OA. The difference (BC)
indicates the net  loss.
  On the other hand, if the production of goods and services should level
off,  the marginal utility of amenities would tend to  level off also.
              Per Capita  Income as the QOL Standard
  In order to  satisfy all  levels  of human needs, financial  resources are
necessary.  A  generally understood  and  readily available common
denominator for setting  forth the specific  elements which  contribute to
quality of life is an apportionment of average per capita income. Despite its
deficiencies,  money is  a remarkably reliable and versatile measure of
human reaction.
  Therefore, with  the concepts of  the hierarchy  of human needs and
marginal utility of goods and  amenities as background and  supporting
philosophies,  we have chosen per  capita income  as  the  parameter for
measuring  quality of life. The assumption is that when a sufficiently high in-
come is attained,  quality of life, based on individual taste and philosophy
can be attained by the members of society.
  After a brief study of benchmark quality of life standards for 15 different
categories  of  living  expenses,  an average per capita annual income of
$7,500 in constant 1965 dollars ($30,000 gross for a family of four) is used
                                108

-------
                MU OF GOODS
o «/>
  LU
>- o
I --

H a:
— ui
— 10
o o
a: o
< o
     HIGH
    MU OF AMENITIES
           \
                        HIGH
                             — CO

                             _l LU
                                                             LU
                             QC O
                                                     LOW
                 PAST
PRESENT      FUTURE
         Figure 6. Marginal Utility of Goods and Amenities
                              109

-------
to represent the amount needed to satisfy benchmark quality of life stan-
dards now or in the foreseeable future. This would be comparable to adop-
ting the 1972 upper middle income standards as an average.  No major
change in income distribution is assumed. Individual incomes are expected
to vary substantially from the $7,500 average, comparable to variations from
the average in  1972.
  The uses to which income is put are perhaps as important as the absolute
level of income. A  preliminary standard for  apportionment of income to
achieve a benchmark quality of life is shown in Table 2. The apportionment
is related to the hierarchy of human needs in Table 3.
  Our preliminary estimate is that about 28 percent of the $7,500 would be
for physiological needs; 21 percent for security needs; 18 percent for social
needs; 15 percent for ego needs; and 18 percent for self-fulfillment needs.
The benchmark standards are  pioneering examples. This apportionment is
not based upon exhaustive or conclusive analysis; no such detailed studies
are available (18).
  In  contrast, the Office of Business Economics  Research Service, U.S.
Department of Commerce (OBERS) projects that the $7,500 average will be
reached about the year 2000  and  advance to $13,200  by the year  2020.
The $7,500 in per capita  income compares to about $9,500 in per  capita
share of gross regional product. The latter is  about 2.7 times the national
average in 1967. It appears attainable only by  increasing the productive ef-
ficiency or output of the average worker by 1 70 percent above the 1967
level. This would require  major improvements in science and technology
and continued availability of energy at acceptable prices.  It would require
an increase in servant machines per person from 13 in 1965 to 37. The per
capita income in the Pacific Northwest is now,  and is assumed to continue,
at approximately the same level as for the  remainder of the United States.
  The per capita income of $7,500 and its apportionment, will be taken as
the benchmark for quality of life standard. As the analysis proceeds, the in-
come achievable under various combinations  of population and economic
growth will  be used to assess the  acceptability of each set of conditions.
Capacity for GRP as a Function of Pollution Control
  In 1965, our data base year, the Pacific Northwest GRP was about  $20.5
billion but the average annual per capita income ($2,785) was only 37% of
the benchmark standard. There was localized  air pollution,  water pollution,
visual pollution, and land  misuse. However, for the Northwest as a whole,
natural systems were assimilating practically all of the waste produced. The
Northwest was  relatively  uncongested  and   its high quality  natural  en-
vironment was largely intact.
                                110

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Table 2. Average Apportionment of Income to Achieve Benchmark Quality
of Life
Expenditure Category
1 . Food
2. Clothing
3. Housing
4. Transportation
5. Health
6. Education
7. Clean Air
8. Clean Water
9. Solid Waste Disposal
10. Quiet
11. Attractive Surroundings
12. Recreation
13. Open Space
14. Savings, Contributions,
Insurance, and Misc.
15. Federal , State, and
Local Government (Note 3)
Total
Average Per Capita
for Member of
Family of 4 in I960
(Note 1)
Dollars
$ 400
138
437
290
235
149
-
-
-
-
-
72
"
164
305
$2,192
Percentage
18.33
6.30
19.93
13.20
10.74
6.81
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
3.31
(Note 2)
7.48
13.90
1002;
Average Per Capita
Under Benchmark
Standards, in 1965 $
Dol lars
Requi red
$ 960
450
1 ,200
700
320
380
150
160
110
160
1JO
4.00
320
5&0
l,5ffO
$7,500
(Note -4)
Percentages
of $7,500
12.8
6.0
16.0
9.34
4.26
5.07
2.0
2.13
1.47
2.13
1.73
5.33
4.26-
7.48
20.0
TOO?
  NOTE 1:   U.S. Department of Labor,  Bureau of Labor Statistics.,  Survey of Consumer
          Expendi tures, Western Kegion.
  NOTE 2:   Not segregated by BLS in 1960--probably included under other  items.
  NOTE 3:   Includes government expenditures for  items other than  the  14 categories
          listed in Table 4.  Government expenditures assumed to Be  6*K  Federal,
          20% State, 20% Local.  Information concerning government -expend!tures
          from the Federal Budget—I960, and State of Washington, Office of
          Program Planning and Fiscal Management.
  NOTE 4:   Equivalent to $9,,500 in per capita share of gross product-
                                    111

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                    Table 3. Relationship Between the "Hierarchy of Human Needs" and "Average Apportionment of In-
                    come Benchmark Quality of Life
                                                             MEANS TO SATISFY NEEDS (AVERAGE ANNUAL PER CAPITA BUDGET)
ro

HUMAN
NEEDS
1. PHYSIOLOGICAL
2. SECURITY
3. SOCIAL
4. EGO
5. SELF-FULFILLMENT
6. TOTALS
*
$
%
$
*
5
*
S
%
$
*
$
1
o
S
7°
672


20
192
10
96


100
960
2
u
z
X
l-
o
u
50
225


20
90
20
90
10
45
100
450
3
CD
z
in
ZD
O
X
50
600
15
180
15
180
10
120
10
120
|00
1200
TRANSPORTATION .c-
30
210
15
105
20
140
15
105
20
140
100
700
HEALTH un
50
160
20
64
10
32
10
32
10
32
100
320
6
O
§
13
O
LJ
10
38
30
114
15
57
15
57
30
114
100
360
7
a:
_J
u
20
30
10
15
20
30
20
30
30
45
100
150
8
UJ
3
u
20
32


30
48
20
32
30
48
100
160
SOLID WASTE
DISPOSAL j
20
22
10
11
30
33
30
33
10
11
100
110
10
t,
§
25
40
10
16
25
40
20
32
20
32
100
160
ATTRACTIVE _ I
SURROUNDINGS -
10
13


20
26
20
26
30
65
100
130
RECREATION £
10
40


30
120
30
120
30
120
100
400
13
UJ
CO
UJ
a.
0
10
32
20
64
15
48
15
48
40
128
100
320
14
Ul
V)
U
Z
1




30
168
30
168
40
224
100
560
GOVERNMENT
(Except 14 Items) "


65
975
10
150
10
150
15
225
100
1500
16
trt
I
28
2114
21
1544
18
1354
15
1139
18
1349
100
7500
                                                  Figures used represent preliminary subjective estimates of the principal author.

-------
  As used in this study, the term pollution includes all kinds of activities by
man which cause  land  spoliation, water  quality degradation, air quality
degradation, or harmful  noise.
  The adverse  effects of pollution can, within limits, be mitigated by  in-
creasing  pollution  control.  Techniques for pollution control  include: (1)
redesigning processes, machines, etc.,  to reduce pollution at its source; (2)
shift of emphasis  to goods and  services with  inherently less  pollution
problems (changing the  composition of the GRP); (3) cleaning up effluents
and  emissions before  releasing  them; (4) recycling wastes;  and (5)
deliberately planning and implementing all development so that it is in har-
mony with natural ecosystems.
            Estimated  Artificial  Pollution Control in 1965
  The exact amount of articifical pollution control in the Pacific Northwest in
1965 is unknown. A rough estimate of the amount of  recycling (mostly  solid
wastes) is 10% Other forms of artificial pollution  control did exist (primary
and secondary sewage  treatment plants and rudimentary erosion control
are two examples),  but there was almost no control of noise or of emissions
to the atmosphere.  The total  artificial pollution control, in addition  to
recycling, was perhaps between 5 and  10% Let us assume 7%,  making the
total 17% The exact amount is not critical; it could vary  5% + or - without a
significant effect upon the end  results.
          Estimated Natural Capacity to Assimilate Waste
  In addition to artificial  pollution control^ we must account for the capacity
of natural systems to assimilate waste. The capacity of natural systems  must
not be exceeded if the benchmark quality of life standards are to be met. In
the Pacific Northwest in 1965 there  was localized air pollution, water
pollution, land abuse, visual pollution, and  solid waste problems, for exam-
ple. This indicated  that the assimilative  capacity of the natural systems had
been exceeded locally. In many other "bases, however,  it appeared that the
natural systems had additional pollution absorption capacity. If the pollution
in 1965 had been distributed more widely it might have been absorbed  by
the natural systems without  degradation. This is probably  on the optimistic
side and is debatable. However, for purposes of this study let us make  such
an assumption. That assumption would mean that, on a regional average
basis, the  combined capacity of the natural and the artificial systems was
adequate to handle the  total pollution  load in  1965.
     Technological Limitations to Achievable Pollution Control
  A goal of either 100% artificial pollution control or zero waste per unit of
GRP is unattainable from both the technological and economic standpoints.
The cost and technical difficulty of reducing, by artificial means, the amount
                                113

-------
of pollution from a given source increase rapidly as zero pollution is ap-
proached. The absolute limit is reached when the pollution created by the
clean-up servant machines  is as great as the improvement in pollution
levels. There has been ho overall assessment of what this limit on reduction
of pollution  may be. There is  only limited information for individual com-
ponent industries.  The best we can do is to assume a limit based upon
present partial  information and revise  it as more complete  information
becomes available. Our assumption is that technological constraints limit
pollution control to 90%
        Economic Limitations to Achievable Pollution  Control
  The benefits (both material and intangible) resulting from additional in-
vestments for pollution control must exceed the costs. But here the law of
diminishing  returns becomes  increasingly important as the 90% physical
limit is approached.
  Unfortunately, there is, at present,  no reliable overall assessment of what
the upper economic limits may be. Possibly they lie between 80% to 90%
Let us make the optimistic assumption -of 90% and revise it in the future as
more information becomes available.
          Assumed Maximum Achievable  Pollution Control
  Combining the 90% technological limit and the 90% economic limit, the
maximum achievable pollution  control will be assumed to be 90%x 90% =
80% (rounded). Attainment of the 80% would require  a  substantially in-
creased application of (a)  science  and technology, (b)  natural resource
management, and (c) land use  controls. This is clearly beyond the scope of
such measures in effect or seriously contemplated anywhere in the nation in
1972 (19).
                     Definition of  Pollution Unit
  For  discussion  purposes,  we  will  define one  pollution unit as  that
produced by $1 billion in GRP, with no artificial or natural pollution control.
This definition provides a convenient way of relating pollution to GRP and
permits a first approximate way of studying the effects of pollution control.
  With this definition the number of pollution units produced by a region is
(GRP in billions of  1965 dollars) x (100%-% of pollution control)/(100). For
example, a region with $100 billion  GRP and 20% pollution control would
produce (100) x (100-20)/100 = 80  units.
  The relationships for five levels of pollution control  are shown in Figure 7.
The following can be  seen from the Figure.
  1. With 80% pollution control, the  GRP cannot exceed $85 billion  if the
objective is  to  maintain pollution at the assimilative capacity  of natural
systems (1965 level).
                                114

-------
                  PERCENTAGES INDICATE LEVEL
                OF ARTIFICIAL POLLUTION CONTROL
                              I  ~    I     I    I     I     t    I

               20   40    60  80   100  120   140  160   180   200   220  240.

                 GROSS  REGIONAL  PRODUCT (BILLIONS,  19&5  DOLLARS)


    This assumes that no units of pollution occur until  the pollution
assimilative capacity of natural  systems is reached and that after  that point
one  unit of pollution is equivalent to $1 billion in gross regional product.
The  GRP in 1965 was $20.5 billion with 17% pollution control.   Total  pollution
produced was 20.5 x (1.00-0.17) or 17 units.  It is assumed that  these  units
represented the full assimilative capacity of natural systems  with  the  results
that there were zero net units of pollution in 1965.  (3-5 units  were con-
trolled artificially.)
:igure  7.  Units of  Pollution With Alternative Combinations  of  GRP  and
dilution Control
                                  115

-------
  2. If the pollution standard is relaxed to permit 51 units (3 times the 1965
level) the GRP could be $340  billion, with 85% pollution control.
  3. If only 17% pollution control is achieved, $340 billion in GRP would
produce a net 282 pollution  units in  the region.
  4. The $208 billion GRP projected forecast by OBERS for the year 2020,
given the 80% maximum pollution control,  will produce 42 pollution units,
25  units above  the  1965 level or about 11/2 times the assumed natural
assimilative capacity of the region.
  These examples should not be taken as firm conclusions. They serve only
to illustrate the technique we have chosen for assessing relative levels of
pollution resulting from alternative combinations  of pollution control and
GRP.
Capacity for Sustained Use of Natural
Resources for Material Purposes
  The second major step in applying carrying capacity analysis is to deter-
mine the capacity of the region for sustained use of natural resources for
material  purposes, i.e. generating GRP.
  An approximation of the long term carrying capacity of the Pacific Nor-
thwest as a whole for both population  and gross product may be made by
analyzing its available land and its natural  and man made resources. This
approximation includes the assumption  that  the  relatively good quantity
and quality of Northwest capital, management, and labor would continue. It
assumes that  inter-regional and international trade will  increase, limited
however by the capacity of Northwest natural resources to provide the base
for such trade on a sustained basis. It is also based upon the proposition
that  although major future breakthroughs in science and technology are
possible, they are by no means assured. The first priority should be a major
re-orientation of science and technology to correct the backlog of problems
caused by economic  growth such  as  ecosystem disruption, poisons,
eutrophication, soil erosion, maldistribution of population, excessive noise,
and all manner of emissions and effluents. A prudent procedure is to base
assessments  of sustainable future  economic  activity upon today's
knowledge.  Changes  in those  assessments are warranted  only  after
breakthroughs in science and technology actually occur and are proven to
be a positive step in the direction of  an optimum quality of life.
               Methodology for Determining Capacity
  The capacity of the Pacific Northwest  was estimated by cataloging the
available renewable and non-renewable  natural resources and  estimating
the  goods and services which could be  produced by primary and secon-
dary industries. A full discussion of the technique is presented in Appendix
6 of Reference 18.
                                116

-------
  To illustrate the procedure a summary of the analysis of the commercial
forest land is presented here. For comparison purposes it is necessary to
determine the capacity production in the base year,  1965. The Census of
Manufacturers published by the Bureau of Census estimated that lumber,
wood, paper and allied products contributed $1,936 million to the regional
GRP in 1967. Comparable figures are not available for  1965; however,
assuming the production was 15% less, the 1965 production was taken as
$1,670 million.
  Research revealed that the production volume could increase by a factor
of 1.6 assuming full stocking, full utilization and all other measures to take
advantage of full  soil productivity  on  all available acreage.
  In addition to increased forest production the  local manufacturing could
also increase by a factor of 1.25. Together these factors yield a potential in-
crease by a factor of 2, thus resulting in an  estimated capacity for the com-
mercial forest land  of $3,340 million  annually.
                        Results of Analysis
  Using similar forecasting techniques the results shown  in Table 4 were
obtained.  Some  preliminary conclusions  can  be  drawn,   relating  the
capacity for GRP to pollution levels (refer to  Figure 7):
  1. With  80% pollution control, the  region can sustain only $85  billion
GRP without raising pollution above  the 1965  level. The tentative $116
billion exceeds that limit  by 36.5%
  2. If the GRP reaches $116 billion the pollution will rise to 23 units (1.4
times 1965 levels) with 80%pollution control or to 57 units (3.3 times 1965
levels) with 51% pollution  control.
  Given the desire of the  population to maintain pollution at or near the
1965 level, it is clear that effective pollution control must be planned now
whatever growth is experienced in the next decades. It is also clear that the
region  might  consider means of keeping growth  below the estimated
capacity of $116 billion.
  However, a factor of greater potential concern is the availability and cost
of energy to fuel an increase in GRP.  This  study assumes that energy will
not be a limiting factor for Northwest growth in relation to other regions of
the United States.  However,  there is growing  evidence  that  increasing
costs and decreasing availability of  energy  sources  and environmental
problems  associated with  energy may sooner or  later  limit economic
growth of the nation as a whole.
  The  $116 billion  GRP for the Northwest would be over 51/2  times the
level in 1965 and would require about 51/2 times the use of energy (20).
Probably electrical energy will comprise an increasingly larger share of the
total energy needs than was the case in 1970. At that time the total energy
                                117

-------
Table 4. Estimated Potential of Pacific Northwest Resources to Produce Continuous Gross Regional
Product (Millions of 1965 dollars, rounded)
Resource Use For
Material Purposes
Basic
Commercial Forest Land
Agricultural Land
Commercial Fisheries
Recreation and Tourism
Industry Based Upon Location
Mining and Minerals
Subtotal
Anci 1 lary
Secondary Industries
Totals
Production, 1965

$ 1,670
1,560
70
900
2,860
620
$ 7,680

12,770
$20,450
Sustained
Production Potential

$ 3,3^0
8,740
120
6,000
8,580
2,150
$ 28,930

86,890
$115,720
                                          118

-------
used in the Pacific Northwest consisted of 43% electricity and 57% other
forms. Electrical energy is a convenient method for converting both falling
water and various kinds  of fuel into energy needed to power machines.
Most authorities agree that, if equipped with the best available air pollution
control devices, even fossil fuel electric generating plants  produce far less
air pollution than burning an equivalent amount of fossil fuel in  individual
motors. Under optimum conditions electricity would provide perhaps  75%
of the total energy needs for the Northwest or nearly seven times the 1965
level of use of electricity, assuming combination 4b in Table 6 (21). Fusion,
solar (including sea-thermal), and  geothermal generating plants may even-
tually prove to be both feasible and relatively pollution free. Also, electrical
energy can be used to produce by electrolysis an excellent pollution free
portable fuel, hydrogen (22).
Capacity for Sustained  Use of Resources
For Intangible Purposes
  Intangible benefits to the individual from  both the natural and the man-
made environment include all manner of physical and mental well-being,
peace of mind, exhilaration, aesthetic satisfaction, comprehension of man's
relationship with other parts of the natural and  man-made world  and other
factors not readily nor necessarily equatable with the material rewards that
flow from the exploitation  of natural resources. Wild areas are part of man's
past and essential to his welfare.  The biological  rhythms  of modern man,
which shape his life, are  often tied to the natural forces beyond  his urban
surroundings (23).
               Methodology for Estimating  Capacity
  The best available common denominator  for  measuring the uses for in-
tangible  purposes  appears to be the recreation land classes  originally
recommended by the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission
in 1961  and adopted by the Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (BOR) in 1964.
Despite a lack of detail in the BOR classification system about urban and
multiple use categories of recreation  land and deficiencies in BOR's first
national inventory, it does provide an acceptable framework for a begin-
ning. The results  of applying this technique to  carrying  capacity for in-
tangible purposes is shown in Table  5.
  One purpose of the BOR system, as well as other similar systems and
standards, is to help measure otherwise imponderable needs. The basic
structure of the BOR system appears sound,  but  since the needs  and
carrying capacities  to be measured are mostly intangible,  some of the
results summarized  in Table 5 necessarily  are subjective.
  The acreage of dedicated and potentially available recreation land  in
each of six land classes and three sub-classes  is determined. The carrying
                                119

-------
Table 5.  Estimated  Potential of Pacific Northwest Land and  Resources to Yield Intangible Uses
Needed for "Optimum" Availability
(1)





BOR Recreation Class

1. Urban

1 1 . Rural Sites
III. Multiple Use
(Except a £ b)
a. Wi Idl i fe Areas

1 . Hunting &
Observation


2. Fishing


b. Free Flowing -7
River Corridors
(1970)

IV. Outstanding
Natural Areas
V. Wilderness 2/
VI . Historic and
C-ultural Sites
TOTALS
(2) (3) W (5)



Total Acres 19&5 (1,000's)

Dedicated

20

913

76,719

Existing 2J
Habitat
Public
Lands
Existing 2/
Habitat
Public
Lands


826
(2,580 miles)

2,935
6,340

43
87,796
Additional
Avai lable
Probably^/
Over 150
Nearly it/
Unl imi ted

59,128

Existing 2J
Habitat
Private
Lands
Existing 21
Habitat
Private
Lands


2,422
(7,570 miles)

0
2,694

4/
64,244

Avai lable

0

0

21,675



4/


47




0


0
0

h/
21,675

Totals

20

913

157,522











3,248
(10,150 miles)

2,935
9,034

43
173,715
(6) (7)
Annual Carrying]/
Capacity of
Dedicated Lands
in Visits
Per
Acre

3,000

250

1



2


20




12.5


25
0.5

3,000

1965 Total
(Millions)

60

228

77



15


23




10


73
3

129
618
(8) (9)
[Annual Capacity
Needed for
Optimum - 1965]
Visits
Per
Cap! ta

100

4

12



4


4




2


6
0.3

2
134.3
Million
Visits for
5.8 Million

580

23

70



23


23




12


35
2

12
780

-------
Table 5. (Continued)
(1)
BOR Recreation Class
1. Urban
1 1 . Rural Si tes
III. Multiple Use
(Except a £ b)
a. Wi Idl i fe Areas
1 . Hunting &
Observation
2. Fishing
b. F'ree Flowing—'
River Corridors
(1970)
IV. Outstanding
Natural Areas
V. Wi Iderness ?_/
VI. Historic and
Cultural Sites
TOTALS
(10) (,11)
Surplus(s) or£/
Deficit(d) of
Dedicated Areas
in 1965
Capaci ty
In Visits
(Millions)
513(d)
205(s)
7(s)

8(d)
0
2(d)
38 (s)
Us)
117(s)
155(d)
Acres
(1 ,000's)
171 (d)
820 (s)
7,H9(s)

4,000(d)
0
102(d)
(320 mi .)
l,520(s)
2,860(s)
39 (s)
8,085(s)
(12)
Additional3/
Dedicated
Acres Needed
Per Mi 1 1 ion
Population
Increase After
1965 (1,000's)
33
16
12,000

2,000 -f
200 i/
160
(500 mi.)
240
600
0.7
15,249.7
(13) (14) (15)
Dedicated Acreage Needed
In addition to 1965 Base (1,000's)
For
10 Million
Res i dents
310
None
43,281

12,400 i/
840 y
774
(2,420 mi.)
None
None
None
57,605
For Assumed
Non-Res ident
Use
17
None (50%)
12,000 (10%)

1,000 (5%)
400 (20%)
1,200 (75%)
(3,750 mi.)
65 (25%)
2,660 (50%)
None
17,342
Totals
327
None
55,281

13,400
1 ,440 I!
1,974
(6,170 mi.)
65
2,660
None
75,147

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capacity in recreation visits per acre per year for each class and sub-class
is indicated. Also an estimate is made of the number of annual visits an
average resident would make to each class of land per year under "op-
timum" conditions. A percentage of non-resident use for each recreation
land class is assumed.
  The  benchmark optimums selected are based upon personal judgment.
They are not supported by authoritative research reports because such
research  has  not  been  conducted. Hence, the  benchmark  use figures
should be considered as temporary until adequate studies are completed
and  more reliable  information becomes available. Also,  it is emphasized
that the number of visits are assumed optimums, not forecasts or historical
trend projections.
  Additional discussion of the standards and rational used in estimating
carrying capacity  for  intangible purpose is  found  in  Appendix  6 of
Reference 18.
                         Results of Analysis
  It  is evident that  the  most critical  intangibles that would limit future
population growth are located mostly on the 60% of Pacific Northwest land
which  is in public ownership. These values are wildlife areas, wilderness
areas,  outstanding natural areas, and wild and scenic rivers. The present
supplies of these resources cannot be expanded.  They are all that will ever
be available.  However, some of the  areas,  particularly those used  by
wildlife, could be improved or better managed.
  In  1970 there was insufficient acreage of land  dedicated to any of the
above  four purposes to  serve the benchmark  "optimum" needs of a
resident population of 10 million plus an assumed percentage of use by
non-residents. However, if all or most of the lands that qualified were also
dedicated there would  be sufficient. But much of the otherwise qualified
acreage would not be ideally located since it lies in portions of the region
the farthest from population centers.
  Presently,  as compared  to optimum  conditions,  there  is  a large
deficiency of land in Northwest urban areas devoted to recreation and open
space purposes. Sufficient open land is available which could be dedicated
to such purposes for present urban centers; also  new urban centers could
be  created with  ample  dedicated open  space  from  the  inception.
Theoretically,  the availability of urban recreation and open land should not
place a constraint upon future Northwest growth.  However, very poor per-
formance in both preserving and developing public use areas in urban cen-
ters in  the past and the difficulty in insuring adequate funds, authority and
integrity of long range  planning, give little reason for optimism.
  A truly farsighted  approach to long range planning avoids irrevocable
                                122

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commitments now on all the land and resources. It leaves a significant per-
centage undeveloped so that future generations can exercise their own op-
tions in light  of future  conditions—conditions that we  presently cannot
foresee.
  In  summary, using the  standards  employed in this  study,  land and
resources of thePacificNorthwest, if managed according to sufficiently com-
prehensive and farsighted planning, are adequate to permit "optimum" use
for intangible  purposes by  10 million residents, plus about 25% use  by
non-residents. Population growth beyond that point probably would be at
the  expense of "optimum" livability for the  average resident. The  most
fragile areas, such as wilderness and wild rivers, would  be the first to  be
overused  (or use denied).
  Of course sacrifice of some of the "optimum" amenities would  leave a
type of environment "acceptable" to  many people. However,  once living
conditions deteriorate below the optimum, the difficulty of regaining the op-
timum probably would  increase exponentially  as compared to the arith-
metic rate of  decline  (24).  Extreme and arbitrary controls  would  be
necessary—a totalitarian type government. Obviously it  is far easier, and
more compatible with the almost universal desire  for personal freedom,
diversity, and  for multiple choices, to  keep population and industry levels
that permit the optimum use of the limited supply of resources which yield
intangible values than  it  is to allow excessive growth, then attempt to
remove some  of that growth and restore  intangible values in order to gain
optimum livability.
Summary of Carrying  Capacity Analysis
  The principal assumptions and results of the analysis are summarized as
follows:
  1.  A per capita share of annual GRP equal to $9500 is  required to attain
the  benchmark quality of life standard. This is equivalent to $7500 annual
per  capita income,  apportioned as shown in Tables 2 and 3.
  2.  Because of technological and economic  limitations a  maximum  ar-
tificial pollution control of  80% is assumed attainable. Pollution in a region
is calculated  in pollution units as: GRP (1-PC)-(the pollution absorbed
naturally). PC is the pollution control expressed as a decimal fraction. Thus
in 1965, with a GRP of $20.5 billion, no pollution control and 17 pollution
units absorbed naturally, there were 3.5  pollution units in the Pacific Nor-
thwest.
  3. The capacity of the Pacific Northwest for GRP was estimated to be ap-
proximately $116 billion.
  4. The capacity of the  Pacific Northwest for intangible purposes was
estimated at 10  million residents with  25% use  of resources  by non-
residents.
                               123

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  5. The number of servant machines per capita is estimated as (share of
GRP)/($250)-(1.0). Thus in 1965 with a per capita share of GRP equal to
$3520  the  number  of  servant  machines  per  capita was  equal  to
(3520)/(250)-1  = 13. It was also pointed out that as the number of servant
machines increases the pollution they produce must be controlled. Another
way of stating this is that the impact per servant machine must be no more
than 1-PC.
  6. Given the constraints; a) maximum pollution control achievable is 80%
and b) pollution must be kept at 1965 level, then the GRP of the Pacific
Northwest must  not rise above $85 billion.

Alternative Goals for  the  Pacific Northwest

  Within the constraint of the benchmark qualify of  life, there are many
alternative goals for the Pacific Northwest. Some  choices are summarized
in Table 6.
  Note that in  1965, with no artificial pollution control, the natural systems
absorbed 17 pollution units and 3.5  units were  not absorbed,  It would
require  17% artificial  pollution control to reduce the  region pollution to
zero.
  Cases number 1, 2, 3,  5 show conditions for pollution control at 2, 3, 4
and 5 times the 17% required for no pollution in 1965. In  each case the
GRP sustainable for no pollution is given. The a, b (and c in case 5) alter-
natives  show the population sustainable for several alternative per capita
share of GRP. Cases 5 and  6 present the same information  for 80%
(maximum achievable) and 95% pollution control. Obviously 95% control
represents over-control if the GRP remains $116 billion.
  For each case, the  number  of servant  machines  per capita  and the
required impact  limitations of the servant machines is also given.
  The apparent optimum set of conditions  is  given in  case 4b. The
population of 9 million is  less than the capacity for intangible purposes,
with a 10% margin.  Per capita share of GRP equals our benchmark stan-
dard for quality  of  life,  and  each  person has  37  servant machines.
Technology would have to be developed to achieve 80% pollution control
(and 20% servant machine impact).
  Similar data,  showing sustainable population  as a  function  of share of
GRP for several levels of pollution control are shown in Figure  8.
  The carrying capacity estimates in this study are not "fixed for all time";
neither is the benchmark definition of  quality of life, nor the 80% ceiling on
reduction  of  adverse  effects  of  production. As  new knowledge,  new
methods of resource management,   new  technology,  and  better un-
derstanding  of man's  social  and environmental  needs are discovered,
                                124

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                                               Table 6. Estimated Capacity of Pacific Northwest Natural Resources to Sup-
                                               port Population and Gross Regional Product With Different Percentages of
                                               Pollution Control
en
Case No.
1965
Assuming no
pol lution
control
1965
With
Pol lution
Control
la
b
2a
b
3a
b
4a
b
5a
b
c
6a
b
c
Population
(Millions)



5.8



5-8
5.1
2.7
6.9
3-7
10. 4
5.6
16.7
9.0
22.7
12.2
6.9
22.7
12.2
6.9
Per Capita
Share GRP
in 1965 $



$ 3,520



3,520
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
16,700
5,100
9,500
16,700
Percent of
Pol lution
Control



0



17
34
34
51
51
68
68
80
80
85
85
85
95
95
95
Total
GRP
(Billion $)



$ 20.5



20.5
26

35

53

85

116


116


Pol lution
Units
In Region



3-5



0
0

0

0

0

0


-11


Servant Machines
Per Capita
No.



13



13
19
37
19
37
19
37
19
37
19
37
66
19
37
66
% Impact
Per Machine



100%



83
66
66
49
49
32
32
20
20
15
15
15
5
5
5

-------
      25
      20  -
to
•ry
O
 I
Z
O
ID
Q.
O
Q.
      15 -
10 -
       5 ~
                                  PERCENTAGES  INDICATE
                                        LEVEL  OF
                              ARTIFICIAL POLLUTION  CONTROL
                        I
                        5
                                              I
                                             15
20
           PER CAPITA SHARE OF GRP-THOUSANDS OF  1965 DOLLARS
    Figure 8. Carrying Capacity With Four Levels of Pollution Control
                                 126

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thoroughly tested and proven, adjustments should be made. For example, a
percentage  correction factor could be  applied  to the $250 per servant
machine if actual experience demonstrates that the Pacific Northwest gross
product mix in the future has a different adverse effect per servant machine
than  in 1965.  However, the assumption should not be made that new
knowledge  will  always make possible upper  adjustments  in growth of
population and production. The opposite could  occur.

Carrying Capacity Implications for Policy
  Although  the carrying capacity concept is in its infancy and is  untested
as far as the population, economic activity, and intangibles (amenities) of a
large geographic area is concerned it  is not too early to speculate about
the practical aspects of implementation. Peterson's recommendations for
future goals, policy and implementation techniques are presented below.

Incentives  and Other Tools Available
  Even a cursory examination reveals a number of means that are presently
available to provide financial  and other incentives and guidance for the
desired direction and rate for population and industrial growth or no-growth
within a region. The  most  obvious of  these are listed  below. These are
proven techniques  fully in accord with traditional  democratic principles.
Most of them have  long been  used in the United States to promote or ac-
commodate growth  and development. They are equally available to dampen
or channel that growth but have not been used consistently for such a pur-
pose. They would  apply equally to both  residents and  potential new
residents. Most of them could  induce feedback  in  the market system that
would slow  or halt the more damaging kinds of growth. Obviously there are
other techniques which would  be undemocratic or  unconstitutional (such
as a  quota  system  with gates at the borders).  The techniques include:
  1.  Full public  information and education about  resources, population,
pollution, and growth potential.
   2. Legislation. (Example: land use planning and zoning,  environmental
policy, growth policy.)
   3. Encouragement or discouragement of growth in population or in-
dustry in a  specific region or locality, both urban and rural, by public of-
ficials. (Example: advertisements in national  magazines.)
   4. Organization of executive  departments  of  government—Federal,
state, and local. (Example: regional and  multi-state associations of govern-
ments.)
   5. Location and capacity of highways, waterways,  airports, railroads,
ports, and other transportation facilities.
                               127

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   6. Availability of credit for development projects.
   7. Availability and cost of electric power and  other forms of energy.
   8. Availability,  cost,  and control  of water supplies.
   9. Financial and other incentives for new industries on the one hand or
special  charges or requirements on the other.
  10. Urban and rural land use development controls such as subdivision
and zoning regulations, and  covenants in  land titles,
  11. Public acquisition or disposal  of key tracts of land, and  control of
resource development,  settlement and  use of lands in  public ownership.
  12. Enactment and enforcement of anti-pollution laws and regulations
and use of effluent and emission  charges.
  13. Regulation of land speculation and  real estate promotion,
  14. Tax  policies.
  15. Policies for providing  public  services such as  schools,  hospitals,
communication facilities, waste disposal facilities, and welfare benefits.
  16. Policies concerning family planning by residents.
  Of the 16 possible tools listed above, the indispensible elements appear
to be as a  minimum (1)  full public information, (2)  a popular consensus of
what the goals should be, and (3) effective land use and energy planning
and controls.
  The fact  that proven tools are available does not mean that long range
growth  goals will  magically evolve  and  the  tools to  implement  them
automatically be used for such purpose. A major and constantly increasing
multi-pronged effort by influential persons and interests  representing a
cross section of our society would be essential.

Need for Public Information
  To  set a solid foundation for such a sustained  effort we  need,  in the
opinion of  the author, to give first priority to full  public information and
education  about  resources,  population, pollution,  and growth  potential.
Also we must have a solid foundation of facts to support  conclusions. In
many instances  such facts can be obtained only with more research and
field tests,  particularly interdisciplinary, and using synthesis and  deductive
techniques. The interrelationship  between  natural  resources, science and
technology, population,  economic growth,  and quality of life needs  much
more attention at all educational  levels.
  At all levels we need to replace the rhetoric and exaggeration of both the
instant environmentalists and the reactionary addicts of exponential growth
with  solid facts.
Needed Legislation and Reorganization
  In  the legislative and  organization area I think first priority should be a
national  land  use  policy  act  plus  compatible  state  legislation.
                                 128

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Organizationally,  in my opinion, we need Departments of Natural Resour-
ces, both nationally and at the state levels. These departments offer hope
for much better coordination in our land use, energy, water, and air policies
and  programs.  We  also  need effective  organization  for  coordinated
management of natural resources in  multi-state regions,  and at the state
level, for  multi-county regions.
  At the  national  level there  needs to be better coordination among all
responsible  agencies at  all  levels.  We need  reliable  indices  for en-
vironmental quality as well  as for economic activity and for natural resource
supply. (The latter provides the foundation for the other two.) We must be
able to assess  the consequences of increased activity  in one category
upon the other two  and to measure the trade-offs.
  Assuming that land use policy acts are enacted, Departments of Natural
.Resources created,  and better correlation between environmental quality,
economic activity, and natural resource supply attained, we will  need a
large number of qualified agents to help explain the situation at the grass
roots level  over a period  of years.  An example of a highly successful
program of this type is the Cooperative Extension Service sponsored by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture and the land  grant universities. This service
to farmers in the last 50 years has brought about a benevolent revolution in
agricultural production in the United States. Couldn't a similar approach be
equally beneificial in urban and rural  land use and water and energy plan-
ning (including  population and  economic  growth and  environmental
quality)?  Do we need a national land and water resources  council and sub-
sidiary regional commissions?
Needed Research and Methodology Development
  Regardless  of whether  carrying  capacity  concepts  are adopted
nationally, regionally, by states, or not at all, it appears to me that new in-
formation and different ways of assimilating the information would be highly
useful. Much of such effort may be considered in the category of research
    1 Economic activity, environmental quality, and natural resource supply
indices should be on a par (receive equal emphasis) and be based on a
common  framework of data compilation, assumptions,  methodology, and
language so that one can be readily compared with the other two and ac-
curate  interrelationships and  trade-offs determined. All official reports,
statistics, etc., should reflect  this common framework.
   2. A  common natural  resource  inventory data system used  by all
national,  regional, state, and local planning and program  agencies and
private interests is  needed as is a system for keeping  it updated con-
tinuously.
   3. There needs to be a standard definition of various categories and
subcategories of pollutants.
                                129

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   4. A technique for determining capacity of natural systems to assimilate
various  categories of pollutants without  degrading  natural ecosystems
needs to be  perfected.
   5. A system is needed for measuring the percentage of existing ar-
tificial pollution control by various categories and subcategories.
   6. Accurate methods for determining the technological and economic
upper limits  for artificial  control of  various  categories of pollutants are
needed. Also some method for weighing the various categories to get an
overall figure would be very useful.
   7. A common system  for monitoring all  major types of pollutants and
several subcategories is needed.
   8. The relationships between natural  resources  and economic activity
need considerable clarification.  In particular the natural  resources which
support "industries based upon location" need attention. Also, the per-
centage relationships  between "basic" and "secondary"  industries and
potential future changes  has  had inadequate study.  All studies in this
category should be multidisciplinary and not left as the exclusive province
of economists.
   9. The extent  to  which  the carrying  capacity  of  various renewable
natural resources can be  increased and the life of non-renewable resour-
ces  extended by  management  intensity,  science  and technology,  con-
servation,  and recycling is a fertile field for research.
  10. The carrying capacity of  various categories of renewable natural
resources in terms of human use and enjoyment needs to be determined.
  11. A considerable effort should be devoted to studying "optimums" for
the long range future in  terms  of per capita income (with various  sub-
categories) and intangibles (with various subcategories).
                                130

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                     Notes for Chapter 3
 1. Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems, "Man's Impact
   on the Global Environment",  MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1970.
 2. Caldwell, L  K.,  "Environment:  A Challenge  to  Modern  Society",
   American Museum of  Natural History, the  National  History Press,
   1970.
 3. It is emphasized that  the  "servant machine"  is only a convenient
   illustration and  is not a central issue in  developing  the  carrying
   capacity concept.
 4. Business Week, October 24, 1970. Also, "Economic Report of The
   President", 1971.
 5. Gabor, Denis, "The Mature Society", Praeger,  1972.
 6. Hardin, Garrett,  "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, Vol. 162,
   Dec. 13,  1968.
 7. Committee on Resources and Man - Preston Cloud, Chairman, "Re-
   sources  and Man," National Academy of Sciences, W. H. Freeman &
   Co., 1969.
 8. SCEP  (Report of Critical Environmental Problems), "Man's Impact  on
   the Global Environment," sponsored by the Massachusetts Institute of
   Technology, MIT Press,  1970.
 9. Ehrlich and Ehrlich, "Population,  Resources,  Environment," W.  H.
   Freeman & Co.,  1970,
10. Commoner, Barry, "The Closing Circle," Alfred Knopf, 1971.
11. Goldsmith, Edward, et al.,  "A Blueprint for  Survival,"  The Ecologist,
   January,  1972.
12. "Commission  on Population Growth and the American  Future, Final
   Report"  The New American Library, Inc., March,  1972.
13. Seckler, David W., & Barkley, Paul W., "Economic Growth and En-
   vironmental Decay,"  Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,  Inc.,  1972.
14. See Chapter VIII, Population, Growth, and Resources "The First Annual
   Report of the  Council on Environmental Quality", August,  1970.
15. An example  is  the July 17,  1970, report  to the President by the
   National  Goals  Research  Staff entitled "Toward Balanced  Growth:
   Quantity with Quality." Another example is the March 1970 report of
   the  California Select Committee on  Environmental Quality, which
   recommends  an amendment  to the State Constitution providing  an
   "Environmental Bill of Rights." A third is a sketch version of a plan for
   the future of California to the year 2000 developed by the organization
   California Tomorrow, San Francisco, 1972.
                               131

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 As  Professor Elbert Bowden*  observes, "Once he  ventures into the,
   realm of concepts to which meaningful numerical  values cannot be
   assigned, the regional economist loses the opportunity to apply much
   of his specialized methodology. He is stripped of his aura of mysticism
   and compelled to communicate with policy-makers and administrators
   in their own language. Suddenly he is faced with the need to demon-
   state his understanding of the real world workings of a broad range of
   economic theory. It is easy to understand the desire to shy away from
   such demanding circumstances."
 * Professor of Economics, State University of New York, Fredonia, in Land
   Economics Journal,  May 1971.
16. Galbraith, John, "Economics and the Quality if Life," 5 Science, 1964.
17. McGregor,  Douglas, "Leadership and Motivation," Massachusetts In-
   stitute of Technology Press, Cambridge,  Mass. (1966);  also Maslow,
   Abraham H, "Motivation and  Personality,"  Harper  &  Row, New  York
   (1954).
 The area in the five compartments does not represent the importance or
   weight assigned to each.  Only the most essential  needs (not the
   ultimate  needs) at one level must be  satisfied before attention  is
   devoted to needs at  higher levels.The "most essential needs' in each
   category vary widely between individuals and cultures.
18. A more detailed discussion of the rationale used to apportion the in-
   come can  be  found in "Ecology and the Economy",  Appendix 5,
   prepared by E. K. Peterson  for the Pacific Northwest  River Basins
   Commission.
19. An illustration  of pollution  control  limitations is the air quality of the
   Los Angeles basin. Despite heroic measures since the early 1950's air
   quality has steadily deteriorated. From 1966 to 1970 an overall reduc-
   tion was made  in atmospheric hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide but
   this was more than canceled out by a  sharp  increase in  nitrogen
   oxides (a major  component  of photochemical  smog). From  "The
   Closing  Circle," by Barry Commoner.
20. Energy consumption per capita is approximately proportional to per
   capita income—Standard Oil Co., of California Bulletin, Summer 1970.
   Also,  report  of  National Economic Research  Associates,   Inc.,
   Congressional  Record,  July 15,  1971.
21. Daly,  Herman  E., jn  "Electric  Power,  Employment  and Economic
   Growth," before 1971 AAAS Convention. Also see Cong. Record,  Feb.
   8, 1972.
                                132

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22. Jones,  Lawrence W., "Liquid  Hydrogen  as  a Fuel  for the Future,"
   Science, Oct. 22, 1971, Vol. 174; Anderson,  J. H., "The Sea Plant; A
   Source of  Power,  Water and  Food Without  Pollution," International
   Solar Energy Conference, May 12, 1971.
23. "The First Annual Report of the Council on Environment Quality",
   August 1970, Chapter IX, Land Use—The Natural Environment.
24. lltis, H. H.; Andrews, P; and Loucks, O. L; "Criteria for an Optimum
   Environment," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January, 1970.
                                133

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A
INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS  OF
 GROWTH POLICY
 Introduction
  The  international dimension of national  growth policies has two com-
 ponents: international  constraints or opportunities affecting  our  national
 freedom of action, and effects of alternative national growth policies on the
 world structure.
  These two dimensions  and their  policy  implications for environmental
 policy  were  discussed by Lincoln  Gordon in  his paper invited for this
 project. The  material in this Chapter was taken from this paper.	

  The United States is not a closed and self-sufficient society, isolated from
 the rest of the world. Although the proportion of our international economic
 transactions  to the total economy is smaller than for any other major in-
 dustrial nation, except the Soviet Union, the absolute size of these tran-
 sactions is the largest in the world. International interdependencies have a
 major impact on our economic welfare. Even less are we an isolated society
 in terms of security, of the flow of knowledge and ideas, and of political and
 social currents.
  It follows that the international dimensions of growth policy should not be
 treated as afterthoughts, or as minor adjustments to completed domestic
 policies to take account of residual impacts abroad. They should rather be
 incorporated from the start as an integral element of policy making. In prac-
 tical terms, that  requires  participation at the earliest  stages by persons
 knowledgeable in the attitudes and interests of our principal foreign part-
 ners and  competitors and  sensitive to the  dangers and  opportunities
 created by our external relations.
  The  international dimension has  two major components: (1) the  in-
 ternational impact on national policies, which on the one hand places con-
 straints on our freedom of action, though it also opens wider opportunities
 for meeting national aspirations than could be accomplished by national ac-
 tion alone; and (2) the effects of alternative  national growth policies on the
 shaping of a world  structure which  is  conducive  or  antagonistic to the
 achievement of national goals.
                               135

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The International Impact of National
Growth Policy Alternatives

  Before considering the  international dimension of growth policy, it may
be useful to recapitulate the principal elements determining the rates and
directions of growth, most of which have some degree of international in-
terdependency. The major determinants of the rate of  growth are (1) the
scale and  character of investment; (2)  the education  and health of the
people; (3) technological change;  (4) the quality and cost  of available
natural  resources (those four  elements  together  largely  determining
productivity); (5) the size of the labor force; (6) the proportion of the labor
force employed;  and (7) the hours of work. In analyzing direction of growth,
the major categories to bear in mind are (1) the  distribution of output among
primary  products,  manufactured  goods, and  services;  and  (2)  the
distribution between private  consumption and  collective consumption,  the
latter being subdivided between governmental defense and domestic ac-
tivities. Finally, there  is the  international impact through foreign trade in
goods  and services,   international  investment, the international  flow of
technology, and  (now of relatively minor importance for the United States)
the migration of people and its effects on the labor force. It is  through one
or another of those categories that national growth policies are constrained,
or enlarged, by the international dimension.
  Increasing dependence on imported materials other than energy resour-
ces need not constrain otherwise desirable growth policies, provided that
action is taken to assure adequate worldwide production and availability to
the U.S. A vast  expansion of oil imports could impose undesirable con-
straints for  both economic and security reasons. It can and should be
limited in size and duration through measures of conservation in use and
expansion  of domestic supplies, especially of low-sulphur coal,  with ap-
propriate environmental safeguards.
  Derived export dependence  requires, in the short, term special  attention
to continued  agricultural efficiency and technological innovation  in
manufacturing  with  a steady displacement of low by  higher  technology
production.  For the longer term,  international  cooperation among all in-
dustrialized nations should look toward  "growth control" to avoid growth
patterns desired by none but adopted by each for competitive balance-of-
payments   reasons.  Within  the  same   grouping of  OECD members,
cooperation is  especially important in harmonizing environmental standards
and methods of regulation. Identical  standards should not be sought in less
developed  countries, and a degree of relocation to them of certain types of
polluting 4ndustries is not undesirable.
                                136

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  Growth  policies are interlocked  with  the  world structure through (1)
problems of strategic security, (2) competition and cooperation among in-
dustrialized nations, and  (3) the North-South  relationship between the in-
dustrialized  and the less developed nations.  Nuclear proliferation is a
special concern under (1).
  Within  the industrialized  group,  competition should be  tempered  by
cooperation in resource extraction and conservation, environmental protec-
tion,  and  avoidance of trade distortions,  together  with harmonization  of
broad growth objectives. There should also be more systematic exchanges
of information and experience on national growth  issues.
  The most  serious long-term problems  of the world structure arise from
growing bi-polarity between rich and poor countries. The major challenge is
to find ways of (1) extending the  time period for adapting to ultimate
limitations on material growth, (2) accelerating the shift of the richer coun-
tries toward consumption patterns (services,  leisure, etc.) at lower material
growth rates, and (3) developing new international  economic relationships
which can reconcile slower  material  growth in the  industrialized countries
with  faster material growth (and more effective population control) in the
less  developed  regions.  This may  ultimately imply  significant global  in-
dustrial relocation.
  On all fronts, there is need for clarification of alternatives, improvement of
adjustment mechanisms, and identification  of issues requiring strategic
discrete  decisions. Process and institutions require  intensive research
along with substantive issues of policy.
Implications of International Competition
  The question of international competition centers on the inbuilt pressure
for maintaining competitive strength even if social preferences within the
nation might dictate otherwise.
  Lest this be considered an unreal hypothesis, note the official Canadian
document on  A Science  Policy  for Canada (the "Lamontagne report"),
reviewed in Science for January 12, 1973.  The report calls for a  "first
generation" policy  during this  decade  aimed  at promoting economic
growth,  while  a later volume not yet published is to  describe  policies
designed to serve a broader range  of collective social needs. In Professor
iakoff's  paraphrase: "Canada, has no choice but to keep abreast of the rest
of the world.  As long as  all  other  developed nations continue to exploit
science  and technology for economic advantage, it would be imprudent for
Canada  to  stand aside from the competition.
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  A similar concern is evident in the recent testimony of Pierre Rinfret to the
House Ways and Means Committee, to the effect that "American capital
would  inevitably go into investment overseas as  long  as the tax  laws
provide a faster recovery of capital there than in the United States."
  As the richest country in the world, the United States is on the leading
edge   of  consumption  patterns.  Europe  and  Japan  have  witnessed
Americanization of their lifestyles since World  War II, and the Soviet Union
and Eastern Europe now appear to be following suit. So are the more ad-
vanced of the less developed countries, at  least among their middle  and
upper  classes.  The merits of these consumption patterns may certainly be
disrupted. Since we are on the leading edge, we also have reason to be
more  aware than others of their disadvantages along  with their benefits.
Some portion of them may be attributed to advertising and social snobbery.
Abstracting from elitist conceptions of what truly constitutes the "good life,"
however, these patterns do  appear to evoke  a positive response  among
consumers everywhere once incomes pass the range of $600 to $1000 per
capita.
  Family incomes in the United States  now average about $10,000. At the
"normal"  real growth rate  of 3  percent  per  capita per  year, that figure
should multiply fourfold  in less than fifty  years. Clearly consumption pat-
terns would change markedly during such  an evolution. To  cite one  im-
portant example, the number of registered automobiles  per thousand in the
American population has risen from 188 in 1930 to 429 in  1970;  if the rate
of increase of the last twenty years were to continue unaltered, we would
pass one per capita (including newborn babies) around the year 2005!  It
seems plausible  to assume that,  long before family incomes average
$40,000 at present prices, there will be a substantial shift in preferences
toward leisure time over work time, toward services  over goods,  toward
higher environmental standards, and perhaps toward preferences for more
satisfying but possibly less productive (in the narrow economic sense) ways
of working.
  Will  international  competition hold us back from adaptations we might
prefer along these lines? Does it, in other words, dictate a kind of mindless
pressure for growth, akin to the competition in armaments? Does it distort
the growth alternatives, driving away from environmental improvement and
other forms of collective consumption? Some  international trade theorists
would argue that it cannot do so as long as foreign exchange rate changes
are available to equilibrate each nation's balance of payments. It might only
imply  a more  rapid closing  of the gaps  in world income  levels, if other
nations maintained  their commitment  to conventional economic  growth
while we relaxed ours.
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  What is not clear is whether changes in foreign exchange rates and other
international  economic  adjustment  mechanisms  can  adequately  ac-
commodate structural adjustments of  this type. It would be a paradox in-
deed if several of the advanced countries simultaneously had domestic
social preferences for slowing down  conventional economic growth,  but
each refrained from doing so because of fear for its balance of payments in
competition with the  others. If there is validity to the analogy of the arms
race, the alternative suggests itself of some form of negotiated "growth con-
trol."
  It takes no great stretch of the imagination to envisage within a decade or
two a degree  of  economic integration  among all the open market in-
dustrialized countries at least as great as that which binds the members of
the European Community today.  Just as the commitment to internal free
trade has pushed the European nations to efforts at harmonization of a wide
range of  economic  and social  policies,  including  a start  in  the  en-
vironmental field, similar pressures may develop in the  larger framework of
the Organization of  Economic Cooperation and Development  (OECD).
Monetary unit would necessitate much more far reaching harmonization, ap-
proaching a confederal political structure, and that fact is at the root of the
difficulties in moving forward toward monetary  unity  in Europe.  Short of
monetary unity, however, the realistic  alternative to a substantial degree of
economic and  social policy harmonization would probably have been  a
breakdown before now in the Common Market itself.  If the  conception of
technology assessment emerges from its present chrysalis into operational
machinery in  various   of  the  industrialized nations,  international
collaboration among the  responsible authorities might constitute  the first
faltering steps toward some form of coordinated "growth control."
  The expression "growth control" is obviously not intended to  suggest
that growth is bad or wasteful, as armaments beyond the requirements for
internal security would be in a rational and peaceful world. The analogy is
valid only for those forms of growth which all components of an international
community would prefer to limit if they were making the decision on purely
domestic grounds. I would personally place the supersonic air transport in
that  category,  as a clearly  uneconomic mode of  transportation  with
questionable environmental effects,  which  I  suspect  neither the Soviet
Union, France, Britain, nor the  United States would ever have undertaken in
the absence of concern  for international competition,  prestige,  or their
respective balance of payments.

Environmental Standards
  The international dimension imposes  two  kinds  of  constraints on  en-
vironmental policies.  There is a range  of measures whose effectiveness
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requires  international  collaboration,  such  as  ocean  pollution  control,
regional air and water control crossing national boundaries  (e.g. in the
Great Lakes),  and global  monitoring.  Such matters  comprised the bulk of
the 1972 agenda for  the United  Nations Stockholm Conference on the
Human Environment.
  The second category is a specialized but very important subset of the
broad  issues: the effects of international competition in limiting national
freedom of action to take  otherwise desirable measures for environmental
protection. Differing standards for pollution control are  a new  factor af-
fecting relative costs and the comparative position of producers in different
countries. At the same time, the severity of pollution is not uniform among
countries, and environmental concerns have a lower  priority in some than in
others.
  It would be fanciful to expect world-wide agreement on tolerable ambient
air or water pollution limits or on specific process or product standards. Nor
is there any rational basis for seeking to impose such uniformity. Poorei
countries in particular may understandably accept some pollution  as a
tolerable  cost  of industrialization,  raising  agricultural  productivity, and
promoting economic growth generally.
  The  potential effects on trade and investment patterns depend partly on
the nature of the controls (whether imposed  on products,  processes or ef-
fluents) and the method of payment of the costs (whether by the industry
concerned, and therefore its consumers, or by the general  public in the
producing countries through taxation and government subsidies). Specific
product or process inspection  requirements can also  easily become a
disguised form of international economic protectionism.
  There is some reason to believe that the overall effects  of environmental
controls on the United States balance  of payments are not likely to be very
large, even with  less stringent policies being applied by our principal com-
petitors.  The effects on  specific industries  and firms, however, can be
critical, including in extreme cases the relocation of existing plants and in
many more cases the decisions on location of new plants. These effects in
turn create new pressures for trade and investment protectionism.
  Among the  more industrialized nations,  systematic  collaboration  is
clearly in  order to minimize undesirable international economic distortions
resulting from national environmental controls.  In general, product stan-
dards are to be  preferred to process standards.  Where goods are heavily
traded, product standards should be as uniform as possible; and abatement
or control costs should generally  be  borne by producers (and  therefore
passed on to consumers) rather than  offset  by government subsidies (1).
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has
already endorsed the "polluter pays"  principle as a guideline to member
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governments, although the implementation still leaves  a good deal to be
desired. The OECD Environmental Committee also provides a most useful
forum for  ongoing  intergovernmental consultation and exchange of  in-
formation,  and  a  promising foundation  for  the  kinds of  international
collaboration suggested here.
  When it comes to the less developed countries, however, the issues are
more complex. In many of them, industrial activities are so slight that both
air and water could  absorb much larger quantities of industrial waste
without  passing thresholds of  natural  absorption  or dispersion. For the
same reasons that  a  rational domestic  environmental  policy would favor
dispersion of large population  concentrations and decentralization of in-
dustrial  production complexes,  it could be argued that a rational world en-
vironmental  policy would favor  a broader distribution of high-pollution in-
dustries. Moreover,  poor societies are bound to give lower relative priority
to long-term environmental considerations than to short-term expansion of
production and incomes. Hence the possibilities of "exporting pollution" or
of "pollution havens"  in less developed countries.
  In considering  national  growth alternatives,  it would be unwise to give
blanket approval  or   blanket  condemnation  to  international  industrial
relocation on environmental grounds. Where the pollution concerned in-
volves serious global hazards (e.g., toxic heavy metals),  the process should
be altered to eliminate such pollution regardless of its location. Where  new
control technology can produce satisfactory products at comparable costs,
it would be absurd to export  the old technology to new  locations;  less
developed countries should not repeat the environmental errors of our  own
past. Where the negative side effects in the new location are substantial, the
country concerned  should certainly be encouraged to  evaluate them  fully
before initiating a new investment, again learning from  the mistakes of the
more industrialized  nations. That evaluation, however, will be in terms of the
standards of the less developed country, which may be quite different from
those appropriate to a more advanced nation. But there is almost certainly a
significant class of industrial activities whose pollution effects are localized
and  in  which advanced  country  environmental standards  do add  con-
siderably  to product costs. In  such cases, it  is hard to see why a com-
parative advantage  in  justifiably lower environmental standards in the  less
developed countries should not be a legitimate factor in  international in-
dustrial location.
  Japan has already  begun to encourage the shift  of some  pollution-
intensive industries to the Asian mainland, along with the  low productivity
labor-intensive industries  already  mentioned.  Her  tight employment
situation,  exceptionally heavy pollution, and strong balance-of-payments
position in recent years has made such a policy easier than it would be in
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 the  United States today.  Its implementation evidently  requires  effective
 arrangements for local adjustment, retraining,  and reemployment of any
 displaced workers and capital.  Like most such adaptations, it is  a line of
 policy much easier to apply to the location of incremental new investments
 than to the relocation of existing ones. The institutional mechanisms which
 might be  involved include measures for  foreign investment financing or
 guarantees, the international financial institutions  (especially  the World
 Bank  and  the  international  Regional Banks),  and consultation  between
 government agencies and multinational  corporations. In any  event, the
 questions of industrial relocation, both  domestic  and  international, are
 major matters for continuing  research and  identification of policy issues as
 part of the consideration  of  national growth  alternatives.
 International Cooperation:  Straitjacket or Opportunity
   Several of the foregoing sections have  pointed to the desirability of in-
 ternational  cooperation as part of national growth policy  making.  That
 suggestion always raises  the specter of excessive constraint on  national
 freedom.  In the  real world, moreover,  the difficulties  of securing  in-
 ternational  agreement,  the painfully  slow pace of deliberation,  and the
 notoriously low efficiency (measured  by output per unit of effort) of  in-
 ternational  institutions often  makes national authorities  reluctant  even to
 contemplate any derogation  of sovereignty.
   Yet the trends  fostered by technology  and  economic development all
 point toward continuously greater international  interdependence.  In these
 circumstances,  the  right  kind of  international  cooperation can be  more
 liberating  than  constraining;  it  can on balance enlarge the potential for
 meeting national aspirations. It  is particularly effective in functional areas
 when  the  participants in  international  negotiation include  those  directly
 responsible for the corresponding domestic policies, as well as foreign of-
 fices concerned with the  overall framework  of international relationships.

 Implications of National  Alternatives
 for the World Structure

   Let us turn now to the  other side of the coin:  the effects of  national
 growth  alternatives on the world structure. The United  States  is  neither
 isolated nor self-sufficient in any major dimension: security, environmental,
 economic,  or ideological.  The  world  framework  affects  our freedom  of
 choice for better or worse.  As the most powerful national unit in both military
and economic terms, we exercise—by commission or omission—more in-
fluence than any other single nation on the shape of that framework.  We can
 no longer lead by ourselves,  but our co-leadership is indispensable.  And
as the  highest  income society in the world,  with  wider margins for
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discretionary expenditure, we are freer than others to develop new'patterns
and directions of growth without sactificing universally felt basic needs.
Growth Alternatives and Strategic Security
  Strategic security is a powerful source of pressure for economic growth, a
massive diverter of resources from the satisfaction of human needs, and a
substantial  user  of  scarce  material resources and  generator  of  en-
vironmental pollution.  In a world  of  sovereign  nation-states,  it is an un-
fortunate but inescapable necessity, which can never  be left out of account
in  considering national  growth alternatives. Environmental concerns are
simply an  added weight in favor of maximum  efforts  for qualitative and
quantitative arms limitations among the actual or potential  major powers.
  Security concerns may have other impacts on  growth  policies. A notable
example is the relation between nuclear fission waste  management and the
dangers of  nuclear arms proliferation. It is not  implausible that  by ten or
twenty years hence, the major element in strategic arms posture will  no
longer be the maintenance of mutual  deterrence between  the Soviet Union
and the United States, but instead a joint effort by the superpowers to offset
and control the widespread proliferation of nuclear arms  to lesser nations
(or even organized groups other than governments). Such a posture might
be as costly as the present one and considerably more unstable. It follows
that the avoidance of proliferation should be  given great weight in the
choice among energy supply alternatives.
  The greatest solvent to  security concerns would obviously  be a world
structure sufficiently favorable to a variety of national aspirations and  in-
volving so complex a web of interdependencies that no  nation would  be
tempted to alter it by violent means. That is a distant ideal pending which
defensive power must continue to play a  large role. The balance between
the essentially negative factor of defensive power and the  positive factor of
mutuality of interest, however,  will be  greatly influenced  by various national
policies toward rates and directions  of growth.
Cooperation and Competition among
the Industrialized  Nations
  Implicit in the earlier discussion is recognition  of a mixture of  competitive
and cooperative relationships among the United  States and the  other major
industrialized areas, notably Europe, Japan, Canada, and the Soviet Union.
In these days of chronic balance-of-payments deficit and monetary crisis, it
would be superfluous to emphasize how severely our short-run economic
policies are constrained by international considerations. Nor should com-
petition be opposed as such; it has been and can be a very healthy stimulus
to constructive innovation and to  efficiency in the  allocation and use of all
kinds of scarce resources. Just as federal regulation forbids child labor as
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,an instrument of interstate competition within the United States, however,
 some kind of international governance is required to avoid destructive com-
 petition among the industrialized countries while encouraging constructive
 competition.
   Some of the needed forms of cooperation  have already been suggested:
 technological  development in resource extraction and conservation; en-
 vironmental protection standards and avoidance of trade distortions; and
 harmonization of broad growth policies to fit shifts in preferences in the en-
 tire community of advanced nations ("growth control"). Although it may still
 be at an early stage, there is evidence in all these  countries of what Hugo
 Thiemann terms a "change of phase"—away from an exclusive focus on
 conventional economic growth as measured  by GNP per capita and toward
 a balancing of such growth with other objectives. Some of those are simply
 compositional shifts within GNP as presently measured, including a larger
 proportion of health, educational, and recreational services. Others are not
 properly measured by GNP, although they  might be, such as some forms of
 environmental improvement.  Still others  may detract from conventionally
 measured growth, such as added leisure,  participation versus hierarchy in
 management decisions, or changing attitudes toward work.
   There is obviously room for a great deal of diversity in the way in which
 such changing preferences are implemented in various societies. It would
 scarcely be desirable that international machinery should force the pace in
 some or delay all to the pace of the slowest.  What is indicated,  however, is
 cooperation to avoid a  lag imposed  on all through competitive pressures
 desired  by none.
   International  cooperation can  also assist  national adjustments through
 learning from one another's experience. In the Netherlands and France, for
 example, the national planning organizations (whose basic charter is for in-
 dicative  rather than directive planning) are trying to  analyze the  interactions
 among broad national goals and to quantify  the linkages and trade-offs so
 that policy decisions on growth can be made with better awareness of their
 entire spectrum of indirect as well as direct consequences. Japan is un-
 dertaking major  new experiments in industrial relocation. It is well to bear in
 mind Kenneth Boulding's  prophecy  that "Japan has had the  most rapid
 voyage through this social space of development, so it is likely to be one of
 the first  societies  which will  have to face the problems of reentry and of
 establishing a  new, high-level,  much more stable,  conservation-minded
 society  ... a more 'looped' economy in which  the waste products of
 society, both material and psychological, will  have to be re-cycled and used
 as  raw materials in a continuing  circular process (2). In  general, while
 European and Japanese income  levels are  below  ours, their higher den-
 sities of population are making  them face some issues of urban over-
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 concentration and industrial pollution earlier than we. There is no monopoly
 on social wisdom,  and all stand to gain from maximum interchange of ex-
 perience,  including failures as  well  as  successes,  in  such fields  as
 population dispersion,  land  use control, mass transportation,  urban im-
 provement,  energy conservation,  pollution  abatement  incentives,  job
 satisfaction, and other aspects of growth policy.
   The most important single area for cooperation among the industrialized
 countries, however, has to do with their relations with the rest of the world.lt
 is on the North-South axis that the gravest issues arise relating alternative
 growth policies to the world structure.
 Directions of Growth in a Bipolar World
   Foreign policy attention is currently focused on relations among the five
 "great power" areas of North America, Western  Europe, Eastern Europe,
 China, and Japan. The avoidance of war among any pair of these nations or
 regions is obviously the most  urgent short-term requirement  of a viable
 world structure. If that  can be accomplished, however, it is much easier to
 visualize  a workable  affirmative relationship among  the industrialized
 nations, especially the three open-market groups, than  between them and
 the  less developed countries. Many  of  the  present trends  suggest in-
 creasing global bipolarity. In the richer nations there live about one billion
 people with per capita incomes in the $1,0.00 to $5,000 range, confident of
 a fairly steady pace of continuous growth, and with birth rates only slightJy in
 excess of mortality. In contrast, there are almost three billions in the poorer
 nations, with per capita incomes between $50 and $500, great uncertainty
 as to their growth prospects, and very high rates of population increase. The
 intermediate category  of  semi-industrialized nations, mostly  in   Latin
 America and the  Middle East,  is painfully small.
   Even if overall growth rates favored the less developed nations, the dif-
 ference in population growth would  probably more than offset this ad-
 vantage. And even if the per capita growth rates favored the less developed
 countries, the disparity in the base is so enormous that the absolute dif-
 ference in  living standards would continue to increase  for many decades.
 Mass famine is still an  imminent possibility in several of the less developed
.regions,  and  mass malnutrition is more  common  than  not.  Levels  of
 education,  health, housing, and all the other indexes of measurable social
 welfare display a corresponding bipolarity. Political polarization between
 rich  and  poor is becoming the  standard experience of the United Nations
 and  its specialized agencies.
   How might these relationships evolve in the middle'term, say twenty to
 fifty years? Three broad alternative scenarios come to mind. A continuation
 of present trends would suggest a general confrontation between rich and
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poor on many fronts. A second possibility would involve clusters of less
developed  countries as satellites  of  each  of  the major powers,  with
preferential trade and   investment  relations  and  mutual  security  pacts
providing some binding force for each cluster. The third possibility—most
difficult but most desirable—would unite both rich  and poor  in a world
structure offering  significant benefits to  all its members.
  Which course the North-South relationship may follow will be critically in-
fluenced by policies  on rates and  directions  of growth.
  The accelerated shift away from  material growth in the richer countries
will be encouraged  through market forces  by  the  inclusion  of full en-
vironmental costs in  product prices and by the gradual rise in materials
costs.  Market forces alone,  however, are unlikely to suffice. To give an ob-
vious example, a shift from automotive commuting to mass transit needs not
only an increase in the cost of the former, but also  major investments in
mass transit systems which entail  strategic decisions  by the appropriate
political authorities. Nor is it clear that full environmental  costs can always
be included in product  prices. It is easy to visualize air pollution abatement
and  marginal energy extraction costs being  included  in automobile and
gasoline prices but not  so easy when it comes to the indirect costs of urban
strangulation.
  To the extent that the shifts involve collective rather than  individual con-
sumption, fiscal and budgetary policy can go a long way,  provided that the
full implications  of choices are clarified for the  public and  legislative
authorities.  It  is interesting  in this  connection that the Dutch trade union
leadership,  more sophisticated than most, is reported to  prefer that three-
quarters of the expected four percent annual increase in output be devoted
to improvements  in educational opportunities, environmental  protection,
and  social  security, taking only one-quarter  in additional individual in-
comes. On  the plane of work versus leisure, there is need  for institutional
arrangements to  provide greater freedom of choice in working  hours, the
arrangement of the work week,  holiday schedules, and age of  retirement.
What  is clearly not wanted  is  involuntary "leisure"  in the  form of unem-
ployment. The kinds  of issues involved  here are largely domestic rather
than international, although  international  exchanges of experience can be
most useful in informing domestic  policy making.
  The  most difficult aspect  of the broad transition envisaged  here is the
development  of new international  economic  patterns to maintain or ac-
celerate material  growth in the less developed countries  while it slackens
off in the industrialized  nations.  Present  patterns are not so designed. The
key economic bottlenecks in the poorer regions today are foreign exchange
earnings and  availability of capital,  both  of which are positively correlated
with high material growth rates in the industrialized countries. Such growth
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improves the market and terms of trade for primary product exports from the
less developed countries, eases their access to markets for labor-intensive
manufactured goods in the richer nations, and facilitates governmental and
private capital transfers. There is no logical incongruity in an altered pattern
favoring higher material growth in the less developed  countries, but how to
achieve  it  requires concerted  thought and  new  forms of international
cooperation.
  Economic market forces are  the  best-known examples of smooth ad-
justment mechanisms, but in some fields analogous results  may flow from
decentralized  political  decision-making within  a sound  framework of
national  or international  guidelines.  Many economic markets are very im-
perfect,  fail to include all relevant costs and do  not signal the future suf-
ficiently  far in advance to permit corrective measures to be  taken in time.
  Process and institutions, therefore, require at least as much research and
innovation as specific substantive policies. Given the rudimentary state of
evolution of the world order, that may be even more true on the international
than on  the domestic front. At the same time, the increasing complexity of
technology, the increasing Interdependence of nations, and the diminishing
margins of  resource and environmental tolerance as  population  and
economic growth press against the biosphere suggest that a growing class
of strategic and often  irreversible decisions will have to be  identified and
subjected  to the most rigorous analysis of their direct and  indirect con-
sequences. The creation of both national and international  institutions for
this purpose is the greatest single challenge in the development of policies
toward national and world growth alternatives.
Implementing International-Oriented Growth

  The best means for handling the international dimension  in such cases
will depend on the institutional arrangements designed mainly for domestic
reasons;  it would be foolish to suppose that the  international tail should
always swing the domestic dog. The critical point is that the international
dimension not be treated as an afterthought, but be built in from the start as
an  integral element  in  any policy-making  machinery intended to guide
national growth or to select among national growth alternatives. There  are
no  existing governmental  or private institutions  in  the  United States at-
tempting to  formulate such comprehensive growth policies. If such an
organization were established  it would obviously deal with a much longer
time-frame than the four  principal comprehensive policy agencies that now
exist (the Office of Mnagement and  Budget; the Council of  Economic Ad-
visers;  the Council on  Environmental Quality; and  the  National Security
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Council). To have  any real impact on operating decisions, any long-term
growth policy agency would require organic ties to these present agencies,
to the major sectoral operating departments (such as Transportation,  Hous-
ing and Urban Development, Interior, Commerce, Agriculture, and Health,
Education, and Welfare), and to the Congress (including the new Office Of
Technology Assessment).
  Without specific proposals for such machinery, which would be judged
mainly on domestic grounds,  it is not possible to specify how best to in-
corporate the international dimension. The following  points,  however, in-
dicate some of the specific actions  and institutional mechanisms  (some
existing and some new) appropriate to the suggested lines of policy.

Import Dependence: The Materials Problem

   1. Stockpiling of and substitution for exotic imported materials.  Stock-
     piling could be handled by existing machinery (successor to Office of
     Emergency Preparedness for this purpose). Research  might  be in
     Bureau of Standards or stimulated through NSF program of Research
     Applied to National Needs (NSF/RANN).
  2. Conservation  of depletable  minerals, including incentives to  and
     research on recycling and process and product improvement. This is
     mainly a domestic policy field, in which EPA and CEQ are already
     engaged.  Removal or reversal  of transportation  rate preferences for
     virgin materials is one obvious example of the several appropriate ac-
     tions. Since primary material market prices are very sensitive to  short-
     term demand and supply fluctuations but do not  provide adequate
     long-term advance warnings of prospective scarcities,  government-
     sponsored research to anticipate shortages and facilitate conservation
     is warranted to supplement normal  market incentives in  these  direc-
     tions.
  3. Inclusion  of baJance-of-payments considerations  in environmental
     decision-making  affecting domestic  versus imported materials sup-
     plies. This  should be one explicit criterion  for possible  exception to
     otherwise desirable environmental quality standards, including federal
     preemption of State  or local  standards  where  necessary.  It  would
     require stern  administration to reject specious  claims or threats of
     abandonment  of individual  mines  or smelters. A  floor might be
     desirable setting a maximum limit to the degree  of reduction in stan-
     dards  acceptable on balance-of-payments grounds.  To  justify
     relaxation of standards, the import swing  should  be required to be of
     significant  magnitude. Formal  endorsement  might be required from
     those units of the Departments  of Interior and State involved  in in-
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  ternational study groups or international environmental coordinating
  activities  in relation to the specific material under review.
4. International cooperation in geological  surveying. This point essen-
  tially involves a review and possible intensification of efforts underway,
  including  resource surveys  financed  through  the  United Nations
  Development Program, the application of earth resource satellite in-
  formation to this end, bi-lateral technical  assistance programs, and the
  training of geologists from less developed  countries. Other  large
  material  importing  nations should  be  persuaded to  collaborate  in
  similar activities.
5. New  relationships between multi-national corporations and  host
  governments, especially in less developed countries. These relation-
  ships have been rapidly  evolving in recent years, with the development
  of new forms of concession contracts. They include arrangements for
  joint ventures,  management agreements coupled with long-term pur-
  chase contracts, and  arrangements for  voluntary  periodic
  renegotiation. Primary material development should have priority in the
  lending and guarantee activities of the  Export-Import  Bank and the
  OPIC. Consideration might also be given to government guarantees in
  the most risky cases to put a floor under possible future price fluc-
  tuations. In addition, in view of the sensitivity of natural resource in-
  dustries to political charges of exploitation, a larger involvement of the
  World Bank and international  Regional Banks should be sought  in the
  financing of  materials development ventures.
6. Cooperation with other  importing nation governments to avoid costly
  scrambles for scarce  materials. The  first requirement here  is for
  organized  cooperation  in  monitoring  of  market  situations  and
  prospects. This can best be done through commodity study groups, a
  number of which already exist. In order to avoid the political criticism of
  apparent "buyers cartels" the principal supplying nation governments
  should be invited to participate in such commodity study groups. The
  main  emphasis should  be placed on  assurance of adequate and
  geographically diversified  supplies,  but in  market crisis situations,
  such as those that accompanied the Korean war, cooperation among
  importers can  avoid hoarding or other forms of non-productive com-
  petitionjo coiner supplies.
7. Adjustment of bi-lateral economic policies in  relation  to major sup-
  pliers.  The importance  of  future raw materials  supplies should be
  regularly  taken  into account in the formulation of  aid,  technical
  assistance, and  investment policies.  The appropriate  locus of this
  responsibility depends on the organization of foreign economic policy-
  making generally, which is understood to be under review.
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  8. Exploitation of deep seabed minerals. The responsibility for develop-
     ment and negotiation of a United States position concerning some form
     of international control regime rests with  the Department of State as
     part of its general preparations for the United  Nations Conference on
     the Law of the Seas scheduled to begin late this year. The Department
     of the Interior works with the State Department in this effort. There have
     been some informal  discussions of a possible  interim agreement
     among the major countries with interest and potential for deep seabed
     exploitation (Japan,  Germany, and  possibly  others as well as the
     United States).
  9. Materials policy coordinating agency. The points made above suggest:
     a need for some focussed responsibility to follow all aspects of supply
     and demand for depletable  materials and to recommend appropriate
     action to the various operating agencies concerned. Since in almost all
     cases supplies come  partly from domestic sources and partly  from
     abroad, any such coordinating agency would  have to deal with  both
     domestic and  international aspects.

Energy Resources: The Critical Case
  The  establishment of an  Energy Policy  Coordinating Agency is an ob-
vious necessity and a prerequisite to implementation of the lines of policy
suggested below. It should  have extensive powers for promotion and finan-
cing of research in the various energy sectors and authority for initiative as
well as conflict resolution among  operating agencies. The issues involved
in adequate supply and conservation of energy are so pervasive, however,
that it would be foolish to suppose that all operating  responsibilities effect-
ing  energy could  be consolidated  in a single agency. The elements of
energy policy might include the  following.
  1. Energy conservation in use  and in conversion to electric power. As
suggested above, market forces will work in this direction as  relative costs
of energy rise, but they will  work too slowly  to accomplish the needed
results. A coordinated set of  energy conservation policies would include
higher minimum standards for building insulation; a steeply graduated ex-
cise tax on automobile engine horsepower, phased in over a number of
years; greatly enlarged encouragement and financial help for the building of
intra-urban mass transit systems; incentives to shift freight transportation
from highways to railroads and inland waterways; more intensive research
on  magneto-hydro  dynamics;  experimentation  in local   "total power
systems," etc. The  NSF/RANN program is doing some work in these direc-
tions, but on  much too small a scale.
  2. Domestic fossil fuel expansion.  The  problem of price  and other in-
centives for increased oil and gas exploration  and production is both too
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complex and  too well-known to  require elaboration here. The major ad-
ditional need is for intensive expansion of use of low-sulphur western coal,
including appropriate  public land policy  changes to that end, greatly in-
tensified research in land  reclamation from strip mining on low-slope dry
lands, and gasification and liquefaction. On the environmental policy side,
there is a strong case for federal preemption of environmental standards af-
fecting national energy supplies.
  3.  Deferral of commitment  to  major reliance on nuclear  fission and
speeding up of research on long-term alternatives. The President's energy
message of June,  1971, placed major  emphasis on  nuclear  fission,
especially with liquid metal breeder  reactors, as the prime source of ex-
panded power supplies from the middle 1980's forward. Uncertainties with
respect to reactor  safety,  waste product control, and possible weapons
diversion suggest  that a  major commitment to applied  nuclear fission
should be deferred until much more extensive technological and social
research demonstrates that its  risks are acceptable.  Given the ample sup-
plies of fossil fuels,  nuclear fission need  not be a major alternative to ex-
cessive oil imports for some decades to come. At the same time, it would
be desirable to enlarge research on nuclear fusion to the maximum that can
be usefully absorbed and also to intensify research on the effective use of
solar  energy  for both  low-grade and power production  purposes.  The
Atomic Energy Commission  and the National  Science Foundation are
adequate instrumentalities for this purpose,  given sufficient funds  and
guidance from the energy policy coordinating agency mentioned above.
Geothermal energy should  also  be  included  in an  enlarged research
program.
Derived Export Dependence
   1. Stimulation of agricultural productivity and technological innovation in
manufacturing.  Collaborative  efforts  should  be developed  among the
Departments of Agriculture and Commerce and the National Science Foun-
dation to identify and encourage  promising research leads.
  2. Displacement  of labor-intensive industries  to lower-wage countries.
Any policy working in this direction would require a more effective program
of industry adjustment assistance than has thus far been associated with in-
ternational trade legislation. If that condition could be met, so that displaced
labor and capital could be assured of opportunity for engaging in higher-
productivity work, market  forces would largely accomplish the objective.
They might be reinforced through policies of the international financing in-
situtions, the Export-Import Bank, and the OPIC. It would also be helpful to
commission a special study of Japanese experience along these lines.
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International Competition and Long-Term Growth Policies
  The concept of negotiated "growth control" among industrialized nations
set forth here requires research and informal exploration and consultation
as  a  preliminary to policy formulation and implementation. The needed
research would aim at the identification of areas of technical development
or product development not desired for domestic needs but being fostered
exclusively for  international competitive reasons.  It should also look for
cases in the converse, i.e., areas desired domestically but being retarded
for  international  competitive reasons.  Exploration  and consultation  would
seek  to identify  corresponding areas  in the principal competing nations,
especially "Western "Europe and Japan. If some or all of the governments
concerned establish formal agencies for technology assessment,  those
agencies would be a major source of information for this purpose. Pending
that development, environmental protection  agencies in the several coun-
tries would be a logical source. After the assemblage of information  of this
type, the OECD would probably be the best forum for initiating intergovern-
mental discussions  looking toward coordinated "growth control."
Environmental Standards
  1. Environmental cooperation among industrialized countries. The EPA
and CEQ are   already  involved  in  international  environmental  policy
discussions along  the  lines  suggested  here. The  OECD and the UN
Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) provide mechanisms for this pur-
pose,  and a further one will be added when the United Nations environ-
mental program agency is established in Nairobi. In  the forthcoming trade
negotiations on  non-tariff barriers,  there will  be further  opportunity  to
negotiate the principles suggested here.
  2. Export of certain types of polluting industries to  I ess* developed coun-
tries. This topic will certainly be on the agenda of the new UN environmental
program agency, one of whose central concerns is the relationship between
environmental protection and  economic development in the poorer coun-
tries.  As  stated previously,  the  questions  of  industrial relocation, both
domestic and international, are major matters for continuing research. The
aims  of  such research  should  be to clarify hazards, new technological
requirements and costs, and  to  identify activities suitable for  relocation.
(Development of hydro-electric power in South  America  and Africa for
energy  intensive electro-chemical  and  electro-metallurgical  industries
suggests itself as one major possibility.)
Cooperation and Competition Among the Industrialized  Nations
  Several European countries and Japan are far ahead of the United States
in the development of  long range analysis and planning on broad issues of
national growth and development, including land use  control, transportation
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systems,  and industrial location. Systematic research is  indicated to can-
vass these experiences and to analyze the extent to which they might be ap-
plicable to American conditions.
Directions of Growth in a Bimodal World
  This section  sketches  a number of major areas for  needed  ongoing
research  concerning long-term  growth alternatives. They include:
  (1)  Strategic  sectors  affecting long-term  regional and  global growth
limitations. To the items listed there should be added the fundamental issue
of atmospheric heating and climatological modification through energy use,
which might lead to the need to concentrate on solar energy, even at much
greater'Cost, as the ultimate reliance of mankind.
  (2)  A'second major area concerns ways and means to accelerate a shift
in growth patterns in the wealthier countries away from material-consuming
growth.
  (3)  The third  major area concerns changes in international economic pat-
terns  (trade,  investment,  industrial location,  etc.) to  permit more rapid
material-consuming growth.in the poorer countries.
Conclusion
  These  areas would be among the key concerns of any national long-term
growth policy agency that might be established, and should constitute a
major part of the agenda for the  in-house and external research of any such
-agency. Pending trie creation of such an agency, a start might be made un-
der the auspices of  NSF/RANN, supplemented in specific cases by resour-
ces from EPA and CEQ, other interested government agencies, and private
foundations and research centers.
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                  NOTES FOR CHAPTER 4

 1. For a more extended discussion,  see Allen V.  Kneese and others,
   Managing The Environment: International Economic  Cooperation for
   Pollution Control,  Praeger, New York, 1971, especially chapters by
   Kneese, Malmgren, and  Eldin.
 2. Kenneth E. Boulding, A Primer on Social Dynamics, Free Press, New
   York,  1970.
                      Suggested Reading

 LAIdelman, M.A., "Is the Oil Shortage  Real?"  Foreign Policy,  Winter
   1972-73, p. 69-107.
 2. Akins, James  E., "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf Is Here," Foreign
   Affairs, April,  1973, p.  462-490.
 3. Cook,  Earl,   "Energy  for  Millenium  Three,"  Technology Review,
   December, 1972. p. 16-23.
 4. Development  and Environment, Founex, Switzerland, June 1-12, 1971,
   Environment and Social Sciences, The Hague, 1972.
 5. Dorfman, Robert and  Nancy S.  Dorfman,  Economics of the En-
   vironment, Norton, 1972.
 6. Faltermayer, Edmund, "The Energy 'Joyride' is Over," Fortune, Sep-
   tember,  1972.
 7. Fuel and Energy Resources, 1972, Hearings before the Committee on
   interior and Insular  Affairs,  House of Representatives, Ninety-second
   Congress, April, 1972.
 8. Garvey,  Gerald, Energy, Ecology, Economy W.W.  Norton & Co., 235
   1972.
 9. Gregory, Derek P.,  "The Hydrogen Economy," Scientific American,
   January, 1973, p. 13-21.
10. Hirst,  Eric and John C. Moyers, "Efficiency and  Energy Use  in the
   United States," Science, March 30, 1973, p.  1299-1304.
11. Levy, Walter J., "An Action Program for U.S. Energy Policy During the
   Seventies," Address made during the 1972  Annual Meeting  of the
   American Petroleum  Institute, Chicago,  Illinois,  November 13-14,
   1972.
12. Novick,  Sheldon, "Toward a Nuclear Power Precipice,"  Environment,
   March, 1973,  p. 33-40.
13. Ridgeway James, "The Last Play" E. P. Dutton, & Co.,  New York, 1973.
14. Rocks, Lawrence and Richard O. Runyon, The Energy Crisis, Crown
   Publishers, New York, 1972,  p. 177.
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15. Schurr, Sam  H., Energy Research Needs, Resources for the Future
   Inc., Washington,  D.C., 1971.
16. Science, Growth,  and Society,  Report of the Secretary-General's Ad
   Hoc Group on New Concepts of Science Policy, O.E.C.D., Paris, 1972.
17. U.N. Conference  on the Human  Environment,  Stockholm, 1972,
   A/CONF48/14.
18. US. Energy Report, A Report of the NATIONAL Petroleum  Council's
   Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook,  December, 1972.
19. Weinberg, Alvin,  "Social Institutions and Nuclear Energy," Science,
   July 7,  1972, p. 27-43.
20. Weinberg, Alvin, "Long-Range Approaches for Resolving the Energy
   Crisis,  presented before the ASME Symposium, The Energy Crisis,
   Long Term Solutions, New York,  November 29, 1972.
21. World Energy Demands and the Middle East, the 26th Annual  Con-
   ference of the Middle East Institute,  Washington, D.C., September 29-
   30, 1972.  Part I.
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COPING WITH ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

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I]	
  In Part 2 the implications of economics and human behavior for growth
policy and the environment are  discussed.
  In  Chapter 5 Growth  and Behavior are discussed  by several authors
presenting several interesting  and innovative concepts relating human
behavior to the environment and environmental policy. The editors com-
bined these  somewhat disparate papers under a central theme that man's
short-range and self-centered thinking,  sometimes enhanced by a lack of
commitment  and responsibility, are  primary behaviorial factors contributing
to environmental degradation. A second theme somewhat common to the
papers contained in this Chapter is man's emotional response to "crises".
  The possibility of effecting a major change  in the attitudes of society is
discussed by one author and he  concludes that the crisis label may result in
no action. This happens because crisis denotes an impossible situation in
which one merely "hangs-on" and rides  out the developments.  In reality,
there is no crisis but an evolving  problem which can be solved only by
diligent and  continuous hard work.
  The evolution of human consciousness and the brain are discussed in
another paper. The author relates evolution to population density, showing
that man created information and coded it into concepts that permitted  new
social roles to limit social interactions to tolerable levels. He concludes that,
as evolution continues, man will be linked into a single, world-wide com-
munication network. Ability to function in this network and to manage his in-
creasingly multidisciplinary activities will require delineation of concepts
and  the linkages among them.
   In the final paper a systems viewpoint  of human behavior is presented.
The  concepts  presented view man as  sometimes reacting emotionally in
predictable fashion, not  as he  would like to picture himself,  acting from
rational thought. What man does is often different from what he says he will
do. This author also concludes that  the crisis label should be removed from
the environment to encourage more rational action.
   In Chapter  6 the relationship  between  Growth and Economics  are
discussed in some detail. The classical economic concepts, which will
continue to remain valid, are reviewed with emphasis on their effects on en-
vironmental planning. New concepts shaping new economic viewpoints are
also presented. The author applies the concept of entropy to economics,
concluding that waste accumulates faster than useful  output but also con-
cludes that  the situation  is not hopeless. By applying knowledge  and
energy we can escape the "entropy trap".  The  author  reviews  changes
which  he expects  will accompany  growth, discusses the costs of change
and concludes that these costs can  be borne, principally from added profits
realized from economic growth.  In conclusion he outlines a proposal for a
government-business  growth policy which  could  lead to an  improved
quality of life.

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  Another author introduces the concept of sustainable growth, defined as
economic growth which provides sufficient discretionary income per capita
to achieve a desired quality of life without environmental degradation. He
outlines action required now to achieve such growth. These recommenda-
tion include developing a concept of legacy for future generations and fin-
ding ways to coordinate goal-setting and planning functions to develop in-
dicative,  integrative planning.
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5
GROWTH AND BEHAVIOR

Introduction
  Short-range and self-centered thinking coupled with  a  lack of com-
mitment  and responsibility are. primary factors  of human behavior con-
tributing  to environmental neglect and degradation. In this Chapter some of
the major reasons for these attitudes and methods for dealing with  human
factors affecting the environment are discussed.
  Concepts of expanded ownership, developed  by the Sabre Foundation,
and improvement in the quality of the work environment taken from Peter
Earth's  invited paper are presented as possible  methods  for improving
man's sense of commitment and responsibility,
  Garrett Hardin discusses the possibility of effecting major changes in the
attitudes of society and the "crisis"  label so often associated with the  en-
vironment. He concludes that this label may be necessary to initiate action
but emphasizes that hard work over a long time is what is really needed.
  Murray Bowen takes a systems viewpoint  of human  behavior.  He
discusses the communication of emotional reaction to crisis, the maturity of
society, and approaches to solving  environmental  problems based on in-
creasing responsibility and consistency between what we say and what we
do. He also  recommends that the crisis label be removed from environ-
mental issues.
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Human Short  Range  Thinking
  One of the reasons we do  have environmental degradation is  that
mankind stresses short-range goals and tends to be most concerned with
individual gain, even when he may realize this gain is obtained at the ex-
pense of society as a whole.  Hardin aptly illustrated this tendency in an
example he called "The Tragedy of  the Commons" (1).
  Hardin  describes a common  pasture in which neighboring herdsmen
graze their animals.  When the population  becomes sufficiently large  in-
creased grazing will have  detrimental effects on the pasture and each herd-
sman realizes this. However, when deciding whether or not to add another
animal to his herd, he asks himself,

    "What is the utility to  me of adding one more animal to my herd? This
  utility has one  negative and one positive component.
    "I.The positive component  is a function of the increment of one
  animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of
  the additional animal, the positive utility  is nearly +1.
    2. The  negative  component  is  a  function  of  the additional
  overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of
  overgrazing are shared  by all the herdsmen, the negative utility for any
  particular decision-making herdsman  is only a fraction of -1.
    Adding together the component  partial utilities, the rational herdsman
  concludes  that  the only sensible  course for him to pursue is  to add
  another animal to his herd."

  When  this process  is  repeated  by all the  herdsmen, serious  en-
vironmental degradation occurs and ultimately all suffer loss. The parallel of
this example to our present environmental  behavior is  obvious.

Responsibility and Personal  Commitment
  Another factor contributing  to our problem is the lack of a feeling of
responsibility evident among many of our citizens. In part this  is due to a
decrease in commitment to personal  possessions and to the area in which
they live. This could be offset by expanding  ownership, perhaps by making
ownership  more  easily attainable. Responsibility and commitment could
also be improved by improving the quality of the working environment.

Rental Economics	
  Rental economics is a term used to describe the temporary commitments
increasing  numbers of  individuals and  institutions make when they rent
clothing,  automobiles, household furnishings, housing and many other
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things. The trend is most dramatic in housing. In "Future Shock" Alvin Tof-
fler observes that "as late as 1955 apartments accounted for only 8 percent
of new housing starts. By 1961  it reached 24 percent. By 1969, for the first
time  in the United States, more building permits were being issued for
apartment construction than for private homes."  People increasingly want
minimum involvement to survive the uncertainties of rapid  change.
  This  trend  has two  implications  for environmental quality. First,  the
reduced sense  of identity, commitment and responsibility encourages in-
difference to the environmental. Second, there is a possible positive effect
Rented items are the responsibility of the owner for major maintenance.
This  could incentivize the market and increase  the demand for products
designed  for longer life and lower maintenance  requirements.
Expanded Ownership
  Expanded ownership  is a term used to characterize various methods
whereby ownership of income-producing capital  can be made  available to
those who have little or none.  Ownership may strengthen one's sense of
identity with the goals of an enterprise or of the community.
  The concepts of expanded ownership are delineated in a study directed
by John McClaughry for the Sabre Foundation. Excerpts from the report are
presented below.

     The men who founded the United States of America—John Adams,
  Thomas Jefferson,  and James Madison in  particular—believed that  a
  widespread distribution of property ownership was essential to the
  establishment of republican self-government and the preservation  of
   individual liberty.
     Today the idea of a private property base for free government and  a
  free society is increasingly called into question. Three differing views
  of public policy exist:
     1. Those who find  the concentration of ownership  and  economic
   power desirable,  as Alexander Hamilton once did,  and oppose any
   public policy which would alter the status quo.
     2. Those who advocate increased governmental control of the large
  concentrations  of ownership and economic power in the name of "the
   people" including  those who favor government ownership of the
   means of production.
     3. Those, as yet few, who believe that free government and individual
   liberty must continue to be based on  the widespread ownership  of
  genuine private property,  and who thus favor a public policy of ex-
  panding ownership opportunities to achieve that objective, while at the
  same  time  forestalling  demands  for government controls  and
  socialization.
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    The Sabre report, describing methods for expanding the ownership
  of property to those who have little or none of it, is squarely based on
  this third public policy position.

  The Sabre Foundation's study makes a strong case in favor of expanding
classic private ownership opportunities. One part of the case is the link that
exists between private property ownership and such traditional virtues as
individual liberty,  respect for law and order, responsible political par-
ticipation, economic understanding,  and individual productivity. Another
part of the case is the link between the use of private capital and entrepre-
neurship in production and the growth of wealth. It has been the productivity
of capital that has generated the huge rise in incomes and accumulation of
wealth in modern times. It is the productivity of  capital whose fruits finance
the growing welfare sector of the economy and  the increased consumption
of public goods.
  The Sabre  study recommends an extensive national commitment to ex-
panded  private ownership  opportunities to  broaden  the  ownership of
productive  capital and consumer capital. This would mean that govern-
mental policy would be devised to enlarge ownership in United States cor-
porations. Programs  to encourage individual purchases of homes,  farms,
and small businesses would be strengthened and  extended. Tax  policy
would give incentives to employees to buy stock in corporations where they
work and to employers and  owners to provide the  opportunity. The study
proposes that the President and the Congress establish a Commission on
Expanded Ownership to further explore and implement ideas to promote
more general private ownership.
  All these current controversies center on the  future of the private owner-
ship of productive and consumer capital. The broader that ownership is, the
stronger can  be the ownership voice in the  councils of public and private
policy-making.
Productivity and the Quality of the Work Environment
  Productivity reflects how well managers use corporate resources. In part,
productivity is a function of  the attitude and motivation of managers and
workers. If they can genuinely feel a personal identity which the activities of
the company their personal productivity will tend  to  increase.  It seems
reasonable to assume that, under conditions of increased identiy with com-
pany activities, they might also experience and increased identification with
the environmental responsibilities of the company.
  Peter  Barth observes, "A job  is no longer valued solely as the means of
acquiring income. It is also valued in terms of the opportunities it affords to
satisfy equally basic  social and  psychological needs." Other observations
from his invited paper are presented  in the  remainder of this section.
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  Although we have been prone to treat work as a discrete segment of life
because of its temporal and geographical separation from the home and the
community, it is becoming quite obvious to social observers that life cannot
be so neatly compartmentalized. The quality of work is inextricably tied to
the quality of life, with the former conditioning  and setting  limits on what
may be achieved in the latter. Research has established that the adverse of
employment experience are not confined within the boundaries of the work-
place, but can spill  over into virtually every area of life functioning—per-
sonal, familial, social  and political.  Work  for some may  be the principal
means of earning "the coin of fun," but it is also a potent determinant of the
utility  or what is purchased.
  We are beginning,  with the aid of research,  to appreciate  the per-
vasiveness of work problems throughout the population. We have learned,
for example, that the "blue collar blues" is not an affliction experienced by
a limited segment of the  work force, but is a term  more appropriately ap-
plied  to a wide range  of workers holding  jobs with common attributes at
numerous points throughout  the  occupational  hierarchy.  Although  the
assembly line  worker continues to be the example par excellance of the
dysfunctional consequences  of scientific  management and bureaucratic
rationalization,   his frustrations are not nearly so unique  as was once
assumed. Just as there is impressive commonality of values sought in em-
ployment so too is there a wide sharing of the frustrations  induced when
the goals of workers are thwarted by the structure and organization of work
systems.  Excesses in routinization, job simplification, rules of conduct, and
the imposition  of authority affect white- as well  as blue-collar  workers,
professionals as well  as  laborers, and managers as well as rank-and-file
employees.
  But how can we gauge the quality of the  working  environment? What are
its major dimensions? What indices can be constructed and what statistics
can be  compiled to enable us to measure  the impact  of the work  en-
vironment on individual well-being, to determine where problems are more
and less  severe,  to  chart changes over time,  and to assess the gains
achievable through private action and public policy? It is this measurement
process which will transfer issues of  work quality from the realm of pure
conjecture and polemic to the arena of social policy and programs.
  A vital distinction should be made  at this  point between the objective
determinants of dissatisfaction, the subjective experience and attitudinal
expression of  dissatisfaction,   and the larger behavioral  outcomes or
manifestations of dissatisfaction. There is little evidence that the objective
circumstances  of workers,  whatever criterion is used, have  significantly
deteriorated over the years.  Indeed, the application of most economic yard-
sticks  would  reveal  considerable progress  in  assuring  secure and
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renumerative employment. To some extent what we may be witnessing is
the growing tendency of workers to critically evaluate their circumstances
and to articulate such evaluations both in words and deeds. As more is ex-
pected  of  employment  particularly  its non-economic  features,  more  is
going to be found lacking. In addition, in  areas where dissatisfaction has
long been  experienced,  workers may  now be  less willing to accept and
adapt to it  as an inevitable requirement of employment.
  In short,  there may be some striking parallels to be drawn between what
is now being observed in employment and what has already occured  else-
where on the social scene, particularly in the civil rights area.  Suffering in
silence is no longer a commendable virtue. The benefits of the forceful ex-
pression of grievances and  militant  action  to  correct them  have been
established for all to witness.
  Although existing data bearing on the question of trends in discontent are
ambiguous, the evidence regarding the  distribution of satisfaction and
dissatisfaction throughout the  labor force is reasonably clearcut. Discontent
is more common to  black than  to white workers, more prevalent among
youth than  among older workers, more frequent in some industries than in
others, and more concentrated  in some occupational  categories than in
other groupings. While individuals higher in the occupational hierarchy are
far less prone to express dissatisfaction than those  lower  in the structure,
there are  also  notable  differences  within  gross occupational  classes:
Discontent  is more  endemic to workers  whose jobs are fragmentized,
routinized,  allow little opportunity for autonomy, yield low wages, offer little
security, and subject them to  hazardous or unpleasant working conditions.
  The  existence of  substantial  "pockets" of dissatisfaction is  hardly a
recent revelation. Yet worker satisfaction more often has  been  regarded  by
organizational managers as a  serendipitous outcome of employment than a
condition to foster and nurture. However, there is now being created a body
of data which  should  argue compelling  for its acceptance  as  a major
organizational and social goal.

  1.  For the worker, the consequences of dissatisfaction may  be profound
    as well as  pervasive. A recent study of aging found level  of work
    satisfaction  to be the most powerful predictor of longevity, surpassing
    the predictive ability of all other variables examined. This relationship
    is all the more credible in light of the evidence that dissatisfaction can
    manifest itself in various symptoms of poor physical and mental health,
    and the suspicion  that it  may be a factor underlying excessive use of
    alcohol and drug abuse.  Although the broader personal outcomes of
    dissatisfaction have not yet been fully traced, it is beginning to reveal
    itself as a potent influence on the quality of non-work life, including the
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    richness of  leisure and the extent of involvement in the social and
    political affairs of the community.
  2. For the employer, dissatisfaction has been found to be a factor in labor
    turnover, absenteeism and tardiness; it may be a important moderator
    of productivity and product quality; and it is  increasingly viewed as a
    cause of sabotage and  other counterproductive work behavior.
  3. For society,  dissatisfaction  may  impede productivity growth and con-
    tribute to higher price levels; it may be an important factor underlying
    anti-social behavior and encourage the growth of social and political
    alienation; and it surely retards the development and  value of  the
    Nation's manpower resources.
  These are not,  of course, firmly established principles which have gained
universal acceptance; but neither are they merely the  idle speculations of
social theorists.  A body of  research and experiential data  is nowbeing
assembled which appears likely to  engender a new  appreciation of  the
varied consequences of worker discontent  Hopefully, also,  it will  en-
courage the development of innovative approaches to the design of jobs
and work environment which may remedy it.
  Before considering what directions such remedial efforts might take in
the job  satisfaction area,  it may be instructive to  review what actions have
already  been taken to protect and improve the physical health and safety of
workers with view to assessing their applicability to job satisfaction.
  In enacting the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, the most am-
bitious legislation in the area, Congress declared  its intention "to assure so
far as possible  every working  man and woman in the Nation safe and
healthful working conditions." It imposes on employers the legal obligation
"to furnish to each  of his employees employment and  a place of em-
ployment free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to
cause death or serious physical  harm to his employees," and assigns to the
Secretary of Labor the responsibility for promulgating and enforcing  oc-
cupational safety and health standards.
  Although the full potential of this legislative remedy for health and  safety
problems is  yet to be realized, unqestionably it must be supplemented by
actions  on a number of  other fronts. These include  the  more thoughtful
design of equipment, jobs and work environments; the  sensitization of em-
ployees to occupational hazards and the encouragement of positive  safety
attitudes and habits; and  the intensification of research enabling the more
precise  specification  of occupational hazards and the  health con-
sequences.
  Given the state of  existing knowledge, it should be possible in time to
build  into jobs and work environments sufficient safeguards to effect  im-
pressive reductions in the frequency and seventy of occupational injuries
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and  illnesses, including those which stem from on-the-job  pollutants, of
special  interest to EPA. The principal impediments to achieving this goal
may be  less a matter of know-how than the knotty question of costs and how
they are to be apportioned.

Changing the Attitudes  of Society
  If man's  perception of the environment is incomplete and if his thinking
sometimes emphasizes short-term gain to the detriment of the  long-term,
can his  perception be changed? Garrett Hardin believes it can, and cites
recent  attitudinal  changes  experienced  in  this  country. However,  he
suggests that labeling the environmental problem as a crisis is misleading,
but perhaps necessary to assure action.  His discussion, taken from his in-
vited  paper is presented below.	
  The basic question raised by the analyst of environmental problems is,
"What must we do?"  So staggering is the roster of  things that we really
should-do,  and so fundamental are some of the changes in economic and
social arrangements that he recommends, that it is  not long before the en-
vironmentalist asks: "What can we do?"  Politics, as some one said, is the
art of the possible, and there is little point in saying we must have pie in the
sky if meteorology tells us we can't. What is possible? What is  not?
  Recent events justify out being much more optimistic about the possibility
of change than we could be even so recently as a decade ago. It is im-
portant that the broadening of the dimensions of the possible receive wide
publicity, because we are operating  in a realm of truth that  is populated by
what Robert K. Merton called "self-fulfilling prophecies." What is possible
is determined partly by what we think is possible. Politics  may, in fact be
redefined as "the ethics of thinking the possible  and the art of bringing it
into  being."  In use,  this will probably prove to be  a more responsible
definition than the usual one of politics as "the art of the possible." which is
too  often used as an  excuse for fiddling while Rome burns.
  Events of  the  last  decade  give  us valid  reasons for  doubting what
Galbraith has called "the conventional wisdom"  about  the possibility of
rapid social change (2).  Conventionally it is, held that nothing  less than
generations will suffice to bring about social change whenever: (a) the topic
arouses strong emotions; or (b) the reform called for is  more than "in-
cremental," i.e., a succession of tiny steps. Discussion of the second point
is deferred for the present, as we look into the effectiveness of emotions in
preventing  change.
  The decade of the '60s was marked by a sustained drive  to being an end
to "compulsory pregnancy"  i.e.,  to  remove abortion-prohibition  laws/from
the statute  books (3).  As one of perhaps two dozen activists in  this area I
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was  repeatedly cautioned  that  no rapid change was possible  in  so
emotional or "controversial" an  area. One wise elder statesman  in the
medical world told me that he agreed with me that abortion-on-request was
desirable, but that he felt that the most we could hope for the present was a
so-called "therapeutic abortion" Jaw that would permit abortions only in har-
dship cases: threat to  life of mother, serious  threat to her mentaKhealth,
probability of a deformed child, and for relief in cases of rape and incest. It
would be, he thought, a hundred years before society could bring itself to
permitting abortion-on-request (4).
  That was in 1965. Within a mere five years two states passed abortion-on-
request bills; and in January, 1973, the U.S. Supreme Court ru'led that state
laws could not abridge the right of a woman to-have an abortion her doctor
was  willing to perform.
  History has thus given a critical testing of the conventional wisdom that it
takes generations to bring about change in  highly emotional areas. Few
areas were as emotional as abortion in 1963, yet it took only ten years, not a
hundred, for a small band of abortion activists to create the new climate of
opinion on which the  Supreme  Court opinion could rest. Such  a rapid
change in a highly emotional area should be an immense encouragement to
all Utopians. Now that we see that substantial alteration is possible, the
responsibility for being right in our goals should weigh more heavily upon
us.
The  Illusion of Crisis
  The word "crisis" stands for a curious idea,  half fact half fable. A medical
crisis, more often seen (or perhaps  imagined) a hundred years ago than
now, is a mixture of pathology and drama. At a heart-clutching "turning
point"—the literal meaning  of the Greek root—the patient suddenly and
dramatically starts on the road to  recovery or he dies. The medical crisis is
marvellous for the stage; occasionally it  is even encountered in the sick-
room.
  In  a crisis there is nothing  much that anyone can do except hold on tight;
pray, if you are religious, or  rub a rabbit's foot if you are superstitious. But
you cannot really do anything at the critical point, which (for better or worse)
will soon be over	In Chamberlain's mind, the troubles of Europe toward
the end of the '30's, had reached a crisis.  A concession here, a concession
there—and surely it would soon  be  over?...  Please?
  He was wrong, and  history  marched on to  produce the  Second World
War.  The underlying troubles were much more  enduring than a crisis. What
was required was not mere holding on (or prayer or incantation), but hard
thought  and prolonged  effort  blood, toil, tears and sweat, in Churchill's
words.
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   It  is significant that we have a name for the time-limited crisis, but no
word for its time-extended contrast. We speak of a "chronic condition," but
lack the needed noun. Chronos? This would do if word-and-meaning were
established—but they are not. Perhaps people  don't want to recognize
realities of this sort. A crisis is good theatre;  the grinding demands of a
chronic condition seldom is. Willing not to think  about the reality, people
are quite content to muddle along without a name for it.
   There is no environmental crisis. We are confronted with no dramatic tur-
ning point that will  soon be past if only we will pray or curse  or  hold our
breaths. The conditions that have produced our present trouble  are still with
us, in greater degree every day. Without effort on  our part, there will be no
change for  the  better,  and  probably no sudden change for the  worst.
Tomorrow will simple be a  little worse  than today, and the next day still
worse. Holding one's breath is futile;  sweat and toil are what the  situation
demands of us  (accompanied,  no  doubt,  by  unavoidable  blood  and
irrelevant tears).
   It  is tempting to the reformer to use the rhetoric of crisis to arouse his
audience. He should resist  the temptation. The dynamics of chronos (if  I
may use the word) is different from the dynamics of crisis. The worsening is
not sudden but gradual and  almost imperceptible. When the fears aroused
by the word  crisis  are not soon realized a "backlash"  is all too  likely to
develop, and the environmental baby may be thrown out with the bath water
of "crisis." The understandable result is a book  like  The Doomsday  Syn-
drome (5).
   The expectation of crisis interferes  with our perception of world events
and  with our ability to foretell,  recognize,  and  react  to approaching
catastrophe. We are trapped by this implicit argument:

   1. A crisis must occur before the public will take action;
   2. There is no crisis now;
   3. We will  recognize the crisis  when  it comes;
   4. In the meantime nothing can be  done.

   The worst errors  center around the  third point, our perception of reality.
As has been said before, "Nobody ever dies of overpopulation" (6). Deaths
of chronically malnourished people are attributed  variously to cyclones,
cholera,  tuberculosis, leprosy, riot,  civil  insurrection and war.  Even star-
vation  is seldom recorded as the  cause of death: the diseases favored by
malnutrition  are the "causes" of choice  when it comes to filling out death
certificates. Worse,  in times and places where starvation is most serious no
one  is filling out death certificates; all  too often no one is witnessing death
and  reporting it to the outside world.  Thus are our perceptions protected
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against recognizing a deperate condition which, were it recognized, would
call for action (which we try to avoid).
  The city of Calcutta stands as a symbol of our expectations and our moral
paralysis. For several decades its desperate situation has been universally
recognized, both inside India and out. Paralyzed, the world waits for a crisis
to overtake  Calcutta,  at which  point massive intervention would  seem
justified. But the crisis never comes. As Geoffrey Moorehouse has noted
(7), the spectacular and critical events we  might label  disintegration,
collapse and breaktown, seem  not to occur. Instead, we are witnessing
"something more akin to petrifaction" of the total organism we call a city.
This is not a crisis;  and  so  we  do nothing.
  Almost everywhere,  man's situation is "desperate but not critical." Is this
qualified judgment a cause for rejoicing? Only if we can bring ourselves to
take action  in a situation that is  merely desperate.
Human  Consciousness and Management of Multidisciplinary
Activities
  As  early  life forms evolved  into  modern  man,  consciousness  also
evolved. John Calhoun believes that development of human consciousness
was influenced by population  density. Eventually man had to develop a
"conceptual  space" to replace physical space as a means of maintaining
social interactions  within a tolerable  level. Conceptual space, the ideas
available to  an individual, provided a means  of defining different social
roles which buffered man from too many social interactions. Calhoun traces
the stages of evolution of consciousness and concludes that we are on the
threshold of  a new domain of consciousness.
  He states  that evolution  of the  brain necessarily accompanied evolution
of consciousness. To enter the new domain of consciousness, Calhoun be-
lieves that man must develop a prosthetic-synergistic brain. The brain must
be prosthetic in that  technological aides to information' processing will
become increasingly important. He believes this is so because man will be
linked into a single, world-wide communications network. The brain must
be synergistic in order to effectively direct the multidisciplinary activities of
this universal, interdependent network.
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Influence of Population Density on the Evolution of Consciousness

  The evolution of consciousness  has  required two billion years. Most of
this time has been required to consolidate living matter into cellular struc-
tures and to develop multicellular organisms with neural  nets. Late in the
evolutionary process, man developed and initiated a sapient domain of con-
sciousness which  Calhoun calls the Cultural-Conceptual Domain.  Puring
this domain culture superceded genetics as the means for increasing con-
sciousness and responsiveness. Environmental  structures, both physical
and  social, were designed by man as  prostheses to the biological brain.
Thus, man's brain  evolved into a prosthetic-social brain.

  At the time of the beginning of the Cultural-Conceptual Domain man had
reached a density-dependent equilibrium with the natural environment in
which, as with other animals, his numbers were in harmony with resources.
A by-product of having evolved at this  low density and as a small  group-
living social animal was a genetically acquired tolerance and need for a
certain rate of  meaningful contact and interaction with associates. This
required  social interaction at a particular  rate consistent with living in a
territory approximately 15  miles in  diameter and as  a member of a small
group.
  Socially  speaking,  density became  synonymous  with  meanmgtul  in-
teractions per day. As population grew  humanity required a redefinition of
"space" to include some parameter that could maintain interactions within
tolerable limits  despite increases in physical density. In prior studies we
have  shown that the creation of information  and its  codification into con-
cepts that permitted definition of new social roles represented the needed
new  kind of space.
  Any individual's occupation of a social role buffered him from excessive
interaction  with individuals  occupying other  social  roles  not closely
associated with his own.  This new kind of  space, the total pool  of in-
formation that may be condensed into  concepts permitting elaboration of
social roles, the linkage of large numbers of individuals into communication
networks,  and the  devising of technologies for acquiring  and fabricating
resources, may be designated as "conceptual space." Since, from asocial
interactional perspective, density must be maintained constant, it follows
that  additions  of conceptual space must  keep pace with increases  in
population. Soon after the  beginning of the Cultural-Conceptual Domain,
conceptual space  became more important than physical space. Further-
more, the number of persons alive at any time provides an approximate in-
dex of the amount of  conceptual space then existing.
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  As conceptual space increases the total ideas available to any individual
 increases. To the extent that these ideas are acquired and  utilized the
 capacity and potentiality of the individual increases.
  One of the environmental structural categories in this evolution of con-
 sciousness and brain involves the linkage of people together into effective
 socio-political networks. In the past each revolution of consciousness has
 been marked by an enlargement of this network. At the conclusion of the
 Cultural-Conceptual Domain  all  the world will be bound effectively into a
 single such  communication network. That time, a half century from  now, will
 mark the termination of the domain during which  increase in numbers of in-
 dividuals will augment consciousness. Depending upon how we choose to
 guide further population change, the upper optimum world population will
 stand between 6.2 and 9.0 billion. Beyond that additional  individuals will
 merely interfere with that metabolism of information which is prerequisite to
 further increase  in consciousness.
  Solution of the emerging environmental crisis and continued  evolution of
 consciousness will require that we shift into the Prosthetic-Synergistic
 Domain of consciousnes and that we seek harmony with the expansion of
 freedom  and  responsibility  provided  through  the  evolving  brain.
  The  new  type  of  brain  may  be  designated  as prosthetic-synergistic
 because of the likely accentuation of these two properties.  Prosthesis will
 become much more important in  the future because in the new domain
 people will tend to be linked into a world-wide communication network, thus
 leaving physical information processing prosthesis as the only major means
 of enhancing consciousness.  Synergism will become  important because
 the main function of the new brain, beyond increasing consciousness, will
 be to develop qualities of compassion and empathy which are necessary for
 individuals and institutions to function as nodes in a totally interconnected
 and interdependent network. The health of every node will depend upon the
 health of every other node.  Self concept will be developed in terms of be-
 coming a more effective node in  the network.  Ideational  transformation will
 result from the synergistic focusing of diverse capabilities in united efforts
 to resolve problems. Be it noted that such synergistic organization is the
 basic implication  of the "multidisciplinary approach" as contrasted to the
 isolated,  individualistic, reductionism now characterizing  most of basic
 science.
  The reason for these changes  lies in population growth. As mentioned
 earlier, if population growth continues without  limit we will eventually reach
a saturation point. Beyond this point additional individuals will interfere with
the metabolism of information and retard further evolution of consciousness.
If we allow population to increase to the limits  possible, subject to the con-
straints of available resources, then the average individual would  become
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less aware of less and less until most individuals have dropped below the
level of consciousness requisite for initiating cultural  evolution.
  If zero population growth is the choice, the capacity of the individual will
tend to remain constant  also. There will be  no further evolution of con-
sciousness. Evolution will be terminated; for this corner of the universe it
will be all over except for a continuous hedonistic traditionalism.  Other
animals have made this choice and persisted for millions of years. So might
we, but only through our intent and actions can evolution continue.
  If we elect to continue the evolutionary process  of enlarging the con-
sciousness of the individual,  and the accompanying responsiveness and
capacity for relating to the environment, then a necessary condition will be a
compatible  decline  in  population.  But decline in  population,  though
necessary for further increase in individual potentiality,  does not of itself
suffice. By the end of the current domain, roughly fifty years from now,  it may
be anticipated that the linkage of people and institutions into an effective
world-wide network will have  been accomplished. This will leave physical
information processing prosthesis as  the  only major means for further
enhancing  consciousness.  Elaboration and diversification of  such
prosthesis will  become the  main characteristic  of the next domain  of
evolution, if we choose to initiate it.
  In the  remainder  of  his  invited  paper  Calhoun  concludes  that a
metascience, transcending traditional science, must be developed to solve
the environmental crisis and to address the increasingly multidisciplinary
nature  of  other problems. He believes  that a new  management strategy
must be developed to manage this metascience. To develop a strategy, the
many concepts which constitute  conceptual  space  must be understood.
Therefore, as a first  step in developing such a  strategy he defines  con-
ceptual space by identifying known concepts and specifying the relations
between them.
7776 Systems Viewpoint of Human  Behavior

  Earlier in  this Chapter  Hardin pointed  out  the  difficulties arising
from labeling a situation as a crisis and discusses difficulties arising from
the need to communicate problems and  solutions to a rapidly increasing
population. Enlarging on these themes Bowen  discusses the behavior of
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societies  in  crisis situations and discusses  the emotional maturity  of
society. He begins by describing behavior from a systems viewpoint.

  A systems view of man  represents a different order of thinking than is
represented in our conventional theories. First I  will  present some of the
major differences between systems and conventional thinking. It is difficult
for man to shift from conventional toward systems thinking. I am not sure he
can ever shift to systems thinking, when he  is thinking about himself.  I will
present the key theoretical concepts that interlock to make up this  total
Family Systems Theory.  This will  be followed  by some of the  numerous
relationship patterns in  society that  parallel family relationship patterns.
Finally, there will be a summary of man's predictable emotional reactions to
crisis situations, the difficulty in finding solutions that are not emotionally
determined, the tendency of emotionally determined  solutions  to merely
preserve the status quo, and  ways emotionally determined solutions can in-
tensify the problem. Systems thinking provides no magical answers, but it
does provide a different way  of conceptualizing  human problems, it offers a
more realistic evaluation of the difficulty  in changing the basic patterns in
any human dilemma, and it suggests ways to avoid some of the pitfalls of
conventional thinking and  to institute progress toward long-term goals.
Background  Assumptions and Hypotheses
  The first of these assumptions was worked out early in the research. It
came from previous study and experience and was based on the  notion that
emotional  illness is deeper than a one generation product of parent-child
relationships; that it has about the same incidence in different cultures with
widely different child rearing  practices, if there is allowance for the ways dif-
ferent cultures  deal with emotionally impaired people; that  there are
suggestions it might even exist in wild animals; and it would be profitable to
have this broad assumption in the background. The other assumptions  were
also defined as  broadly as possible, but they were more directly related to
early observations in the  research. The  earliest research models about
relationships were based on systems thinking but there  was not specific
awareness of this  at the time. As time passed, the  term "systems" was
spontaneously used to refer to the automatic predictable behavior between
family members.
  1. That Emotional Illness Is Directly Related to the Biological Part of  Man.
This was based on the assumption that man is more intimately related to the
lower forms of life than is generally recognized, and that emotional illness is
a dysfunction of that part of  man  which  he shares with  lower forms.
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  2. That Emotional Illness Is a Multigenerafional Process. There were early
experiences and observations .to support this working general assumption.
This was later defined in detail and- incorporated as  one of the theoretical
concepts in the total theory.  This postulated that the problem in the patient
is a product of imperfections in the parents, and thejparents a product of im-
perfections  in the  grandparents,  continuing  back for  three or more
generations, and that each  generation was doing the best -it could con-
sidering stresses and available resources. The most important function of
this postulation was to help  observers escape from the narrow limits of in-
dividual theory which blames parents for the child's problem, and to gain a
more objective overall perspective.
  3. That There Is a Wide Discrepancy Between What Man Does and What
He Says He Does. The beginnings of this were based on early research ob-
servations. This was another guiding principle that permitted observers to
gain some distance and  begin to see some order to the multiplicity of
messages and actions that  are part of the hour-to-hour observations.  The
second year a member of the research team did  a paper, "The Act Dialogue
in an Intense Relationship"  which told a story based .on action alone,  that
appeared to have more validity than verbal  dialogue.
  4. Structuring "Hard to Define" Concepts into Functional Facts. This was
part of an effort to find some structure and Fact in the shifting, subjective
world of human experience. It is  difficult enough to conceptualize sub-
jectivity in dealing with one  person. In a family  relationship system it is far
more complex. Over a period of time, we began developing a formula which
helped  to  move  more rapidly  into systems thinking  and  which  made
research observations more objective  and measureable. The incorporation
of functional concepts  into therapy has resulted in therapeutic results  that
are far superior to conventional therapy.  For instance, one concept would
say,  "That  man dreams  is  a scientific  fact,  but what he dreams is  not
necessarily a fact." The same formula was applied to  a wide range of func-
tional concepts, such as "That men feels (or thinks, or talks)  is a scientific
fact,  but what  he feels (or thinks or says) is not necessarily fact."
  5.  Cause and Effect Thinking.  Man has been  a cause and  effect thinker
since he first became a thinking  being and he began to look for causes to
explain  events in his life. We can review-the thinking of primitive man and
be amused at the evil and -malevolent forces blamed for his misfortunes, x>r
we can  review the history of recent centuries and chuckle at the errors in
the assignment of blame that resulted from 4ack of  scientific knowledge,
while we smugly assure  ourselves that  new scientific breakthroughs and
logical reasoning now enables us  to assign  accurate causes  for most of
man's problems.
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Limitations of Cause and Effect Thinking
  Systems thinking, which this research  has tried to implement in human
relationships,  is directed at getting beyond cause and effect thinking and
into a systems view of the human phenomenon. In the course of trying to im-
plement systems theory and systems  therapy, we  have encountered the
intensity and rigidity of cause and effect thinking in the medical sciences
and in  all our social systems. Man is deeply fixed  in cause and effect
thinking in all areas that have to do with himself and society.
  Systems thinking is not new to man. He first began to use it in theories of
the universe, much later he started thinking systems in the natural sciences,
and also in the physical sciences. There was a rapid  increase in  systems
thinking with the beginning of the computer age, until now we  hear about ef-
forts to  implement systems thinking in many new areas  of the applied scien-
ces.
  The medical model has been one of the proven cornerstones  of good
medical.practice. It is  based on cause and effect thinking and  the principles
of careful examination, the establishment  of etiology (cause), making,an ac-
curate  diagnosis, and specific treatment directed at  the  etiology: The
medical model has served medicine and  society wellfor all diseases within
the person of the patient.
  The theory and practice of psychiatry also employs the medical model,
and cause and effect thinking. The theory, based on  the study of the in-
dividual, postulates an illness in the  patient developed in relationship with
the parents or other  close family members, it requires a diagnosis, and
treatment is directed to the patient. The model "blames" the parents for the
illness, even though the psychiatrist  may deny that he  blames the  parents,
and the model excludes other family members from  the treatment process.
  And so, the medical model created a dilemma when  applied to emotional
(functional) illness. Family research was directed at'trying to find an answer
to this dilemma. The development of systems theory and therapy has been
superior  in  treating   emotional  problems but  it  is  conceptually and
therapeutically out of  step with medicine and conventional psychiatry. The
medical centers in which a family orientation has been most successful are
those in which conventional psychiatry has not been too strict in enforcing
the medical model and family therapists have not tried to  oversell  their
viewpoint.
A Communication Model for Transmission of Emotional  Reactions
  Emotional reactiveness in  a family,  or other group that lives or works
together, goes from one family member to another in a chain reaction pat-
tern. The total pattern is similar to a communication system  in which each
person is "wired" or connected by radio, to all the other people with whom
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he has relationships. Each person then becomes a nodal point or a com-
munication center through which single or multiple signals pass in rapid
succession.
   Different kinds of signals exist, and  each with  a wide spectrum of in-
tensity and degree  of importance. A more important set of variables has to
do with the way each nodal point, or person, functions  in the system. Each
person is programmed from birth to serve a certain set of functions. Each
"senses" what is required or expected, more from the way the system func-
tions around him than from verbal messages stating he is free to function as
he pleases.  Each person, or nodal point, has varying degrees of ability for
handling  signals (native ability), styles for  handling  signals  (personality
characteristics), a  narrow range  of  choice  in rejecting or  transmitting
signals, and an intellectual awareness (intelligence) for understanding the
operation of the system.
   There is another important set of variables that have to do with the way the
family  unit functions together.  Each person becomes aware of his depen-
dence on all the other nodal points. To be remembered is that each nodal
point is "wired" to the others by a two-way channel. There is a wide variety
of subtle alliances for helping each other, refusing to help, or hurting the
others. The larger unit can punish a single member, and a single member in
a  key position can  hurt the whole unit.
   Another predictable pattern  is the placing  of "blame" for failure to func-
tion (cause and effect thinking) and the  pattern  of either blaming the other
or  blaming self.  Under tension, every  person  tends either to place the
"blame" outside of self (blamer), or within self (self-blamer),  or alternate
between the two, which is the pattern of cause and effect thinking. If the
head of the family unit is calm, the entire family unit can be calm and the
communication system operates  smoothly. When the head goes into panic
and transmits  panic signals, the others send back panic  messages  which
further panics  the head,  in a mounting cycle of panic, with poor handling of
messages, disorderly and conflicting  messages, and increasing paralysis
of functioning. Any  unit can recover from periodic panic or overloads, but
when the  panic becomes chronic one or more  of the individual units can
collapse (become sick), and there are several variables for handling that
There is another set of very important variables having to do with the way
the family unit is wired into other families and  larger social systems, and
into the total system of all  society.
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Conclusions

  This systems approach postulates the environmental problem as having
been created by  biological man (in contrast to intellectual man) as he has
evolved, developed,  and  propagated;  that  man  has permitted  the en-
vironmental problem to develop so far he  is beginning to threaten his own
future existence;  that the biological-instinctive-feeling oriented part of man
will not provide consistent help in finding solutions; and that constructive
solutions to the  problem will  depend  on the highest functioning of  in-
tellectual man in  directing total man  toward solutions. A systems approach
strives to view the environmental problem as a functional  part of society's
other problems,  rather than separate from other problems.
  From a systems standpoint, what are some of the things society might do
to modify the environmental problem and what are some reasonable predic-
table outcomes of the various approaches? Society's most common ap-
proach would be emergency, feeling oriented, fragmented  measures direc-
ted at a specific  symptom. It could even go on to specific  legislation "with
teeth in it" to apprehend violators. This type of approach would be similar to
the distraught family and its crisis oriented measures to relieve the symp-
tom of the moment.
Emotional Functioning of  Society
  This can lead to the delusion that the problem is solved, a complacency
that permits him  to continue what he was doing to add to the problem, and
then the rude awakening with new  and more serious crises, and  a basic
problem that grows worse. These are some of the  characteristics of efforts
at corrective  measures that make the problem worse and  worse. It is easy
now to see corrective activity, most of which is good, which attacks a symp-
tom here and another there, which leads people to believe  they are working
out a solution while the basic problem remains unchanged.  The various
"ecology" programs to limit the use of  pesticides, to control air and water
pollution, to recycle waste products,  clean up litter, etc., are all positive,  but
any program  directed at symptoms as they surface  can well lead to missing
more basic issues and a long term "making the  problem worse."
  Any approach to the environmental problem must take  into account the
current  lower functioning level  of society. Any issues that are settled by
public debate  and  congressional  action will automatically  reflect  the
average level of society and emerge with emotionally determined corrective
action.  Society  tends  to  elect public  officials,  from local  level to
congressional level,  who reflect the average functioning of society. There
are some  notable exceptions  but the  majority represent the emotionally
determined average of society. Whatever happens, any proposed solutions
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should come from the best brains and the  highest levels of technical and
emotional functioning in society who can lead and set an example. To ex-
pose the critical issues to the emotional average level of society would ex-
pose the whole program to a lower level of emotionally determined Cause
and Effect thinking. Perhaps an agency similar to the Space Agency could
accomplish the  mission.
Need for a More Differentiated Society
  There  may  be some guidelines from the long term effort toward dif-
ferentiation in a family.  In the beginning, when symptoms are high, it might
be indicated to use anxiety relieving measures, such as meetings with the
entire family unit or with the parents, the heads of the unit, to  re-establish
communication  and settle disharmony. If  the  goal  is  toward long term
stability and the differentiation of self, this eventually becomes the effort of
one person who can give primary attention to self. This involves  the prin-
ciple that all family members play a part in everything that goes on in the
family.  It  is never possible  to  really change  another person,   but  it is
possible to change the part that self plays. The modification of self requires
that person to be sure  of self on all life principles that involve  himself and
his  family,  to  have the courage  to take action  on his convictions, and to
devote primary attention to becoming the most responsible possible  per-
son.
  Most people operate on  poorly defined principles  and  have  never
devoted much time to their own beliefs. There are repeated principles that
are hard to clarify. At such moments of indecision, it is common for people
to discuss issues with spouses or other close family members who use this
opportunity to sell their own values, which,  if accepted,  modifies the self of
the differentiating one toward a "family self." At such points, if one is to be
successful at differentiation  of a  self,  discussion should be with  those
emotionally removed from the family, or he  could go to the literature, or go
into  isolation  to work  it through  for  himself.  A person  working toward
responsibility  in self is always aware of his responsibility to others. As he
devotes primary energy to self, he automatically becomes more  responsible
toward others, and less irresponsibly over-involved with others. As the dif-
ferentiating one moves toward more differentiation, the others go through
the brief  period of  attacking, designed to re-establish the old level of
togetherness.  When the differentiating  one  is through his first nodal point,
then another, and  another, and other family members begin the same  kind
of effort. Such a family is a far more healthy  organism with freedom from old
regressive symptoms. The family is calm, with a new, more mature level of
togetherness and a new ability to  responsibly  handle  problems as  they
arise.
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  A more differentiated society would not have as serious an environmental
problem as we now have. If society functioned on a higher level, we would
have a higher percentage of people oriented to responsibility for self and
others, and for the environment, and a lower percentage, focused on rights
and force and  on legal mechanisms to  guarantee rights. A  more  dif-
ferentiated society could take the present environmental problem and find
better solutions than will be possible in our present less differentiated state.
  The differentiation of self on a societal level would be hard to implement.
In a family, differentiation begins with one responsible family member in a
key position.  When this person pulls up to a higher level of functioning, then
another,  and then others automatically do the same. This  family,  with each
focused  on the responsibility for self, is automatically more responsible for
others. With each responsible for self, there  is  no longer the  intense
emotional  triangles that  impinge  certain  family members,  nor a family
projecting process in which  the stronger family members improve their
functional strength at the expense of the weak who  become weaker.
  In our society, the  whole of the middle and upper  classes  of society
spend a fair  percentage of their time, energy, and money being concerned
about and trying to be  helpful to the less fortunate. The effort activates the
family projection process and the well-to-do segment of society, through the
projection process, further  impairs the less fortunate. Man has  a  respon-
sibility to those less fortunate.  Responsible man fulfills such responsibilities
automatically. If the most influential segment of society could work toward
the differentiation of self, it would automatically spread through the less  in-
fluential  segments and really benefit the less fortunate segment and raise
the functional  level of all  society. The powerful togetherness forces in
society oppose any efforts at differentiation of self. The lower the level of dif-
ferentiation, the harder it is to start  a differentiating effort. The togetherness
forces at the present  are intense.  However,  any differentiation in  any  key
person in society automatically rubs off on others. Anyone who moves in
this direction benefits society.
Remove Crisis Label from Environmental Issues
  Finally,  I  think the word "crisis" should be removed from the term
"environmental  crisis"  and replaced  by  a term  implying a  long term
process. Our society is oriented to the use of Cause and Effect thinking and
instituting crash solutions directed at symptoms which lull people into the
belief the problem is solved.  Man's disharmony with his  environment is a
long term evolutionary process and if it continues man  may exterminate
himself.  The  thesis here is that man is not going to change the environment
enough to correct the disharmony, and that the  ultimate change will require
an order of  change in man he is not yet able to contemplate.
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                 NOTES  FOR CHAPTER  5
1. Hardin,  G.,  "The Tragedy of the Commons",  Science,  Vol.  162,
  December,  1968.
2. Galbraith,  John Kenneth,  "The Affluent Society,"  Houghton Mifflin,
  Boston,  1958.
3. Hardin,  Garrett, "Abortion—or Compulsory Pregnancy?" Journal of
  Marriage and the Family, 30,  1968.
4. Hardin,  Garrett, "Stalking the Wild Taboo," William  Kaufmann,  Los
  Altos, Calif., 1973.
5. Maddox, John, "The Doomsday Syndrome," McGraw-Hill, New York,
  1972.
6. Hardin,  Garrett, "Nobody Ever Dies of Overpopulation," Science, 171,
  1971.
7. Moorhouse,  Geoffrey, "Calcutta," Harcourt Brace  Jovanovich,  New
  York,  1971.
8. Hardin,  Garrett, "Population Biology, and the Law," Journal of Urban
  Law, 48, 1971.
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6
GROWTH  AND  ECONOMICS

Summary

  If some  economic growth  is inevitable,  then some economic change is
also inevitable. If we wish to manage growth and also improve our quality of
life, our economic concepts  and philosophy must change. New economic
concepts,  their  relationships to  classical concepts,  and implications for
economic  policy are discussed  in this Chapter. The discussion  is taken
from the invited papers of Carl Madden and Chester Cooper.
  Madden discusses classical economic concepts which, together with
newly emerging thought, will influence economic policy.  He also reviews
changes in our culture and  describes a global  view shaping economic
thought. By applying the concept of entropy to economics  he concludes that
waste accumulates faster than useful  output but  also concludes that the
situation is not hopeless; zero economic  growth need not be  enforced to
preserve the quality of  the environment.  He proposes the application of
knowledge to create  new concepts of wealth and  more efficient use of
energy as  possible solutions to  the economic entrophy  trap.
  Madden also states that economic growth,  especially that which provides
for  social  issues,  necessitates  change.  He reviews the costs  of such
change and concludes that the costs can be borne. To implement change,
business must be  provided a profit motive and other incentives. Sugges-
tions for providing  these incentives are given and the concept of corporate
social accounting is introduced. He also discusses the policy implications
of economic change,  outlimiting the elements of a government-business
growth policy which could lead to an  improved quality of life.
  Cooper  introduces  a concept  of  "sustainable  growth"  defined as
economic growth which  provides sufficient discretionary income per capita
to provide  a  desired quality  of life without environmental  degradation. He
states that such growth  requires  a perception of stewardship or legacy by
society so  that resources are conserved and the environment is preserved
for future generations.  In discussing policy and planning he stresses the
need for developing goals responsive to the needs of society and em-
phasizes the  need  for close coordination between the goal-setting process
and the planning process. He believes that planning should be integrative,:
addressing social  as well as economic and physical issues.
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Classical Concepts of Economic  Growth
  Some economic growth is inevitable. Somewhere between the extremes
of uncontrolled massive growth and zero growth lies the growth and change
we require. In the next decades, hoever, the character of our growth must
change. Ways to minimize environmental degradation and to provide a bet-
ter quality of life for a greater portion of our population must be found.
  If economic changes are to be brought about, new economic concepts
will have to be developed. However, the classical economic concepts will
continue to be valid. Economic growth will occur within the existing frame-
work and will be accomplished over a long time. The classical concepts,
within which the new  policies must be  made, are explained by Madden.

  Madden points out  that change and  economic growth are inextricably
linked. Economic growth does not refer  merely to the increase in the num-
ber of physical and tangible objects.  It is a more  complicated  concept,
rooted in human values, and still subject  to advances in understanding.
  At times economists have refered to physical economic growth  in "real"
output in ways  suggesting their  oversight or ignorance  of the laws of
biology and physics. Without doubt, the  growth in numbers of any specific
form of economic product within any given space is subject to the biological
and physical  laws of retardation.
  The confusion concerning economic growth arises from efforts to depict
"extensive" economic growth in physical terms, as when economic growth
has encompassed the structural growth of an economy, the extension of
geographic frontiers —as in the economic history of the United States, the
development  of a steel industry in a backward  nation, or the doubling of
electric capacity in an advanced economy. Economic growth,  as  we have
known it, does have a physical counterpart in the increase in the number of
physical  objects of given types resulting from the growth of an industry or
firm.  But economic growth is more.
Economic Growth Means Growth in Value
  Economic growth  is growth in value. This can be seen by examining
basic concepts. In economic theory, a commodity is not a  physical object
only. A commodity is a relationship  between three entities:  a  producer
(seller), a physical object or person, and a user (buyer). The market value of
a commodity is the discounted present value of the expected (annual) future
services  that flow from the physical object  or person. Wealth is defined as
the stock of commodities. Thus, wealth is the sum of the present discounted
(market) value of the expected future services that flow from the totality of
commodities.
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  For a nation, economic growth is measured by an  increase in gross
national product, more precisely by an increase  in net national product
(which allows for use  of capital in the growth process).
  Gross and net national product are measures of value, not of physical
size or physical numbers of objects.  GNP is defined as  the total  market or
exchange value of the final output of goods and services by the nation's
economy, measured in current monetary value. "Real," or constant dollar
(pound, mark, franc, etc.) GNP is not a measure of physical size  of output,
but a relative measure of value corrected for changes in the value of money
measured from a  base period.
  Economic growth, as distinct from growth in simple physical output terms
(i.e., the growth in the  number of physical objects made by man), is an im-
portant and evolving concept. Economic growth provides a measure, ad-
mittedly limited to market or exchange value (hence, excluding non-market
wealth creation), of the values hence satisfaction attached by people to the
increase in wealth.
  The concept of wealth,  as the stock of commodities, is also an  important
and evolving concept.  It is important to notice that wealth, as representing
the present discounted value  of expected future services flowing from ob-
jects or people, does not refer to the  past, but to the future. It is important to
notice that all measures of economic value, and hence of economic growth,
are anthropomorphic. That is,  these measures of value are meaningful only
in relationship to  human purposes,  judgments, and evaluations. Indeed,
their meaning is even  more restricted by conventional reference  to market
or exchange value,  excluding all other forms of human value.
  In measuring economic growth, it  is well known  that GNP measures the
total value of output unreliably,  but from period to period GNP measures
reasonably well the change in the value of output.  GNP, as mentioned, in-
cludes the  ,cost of maintaining or  replacing  an economy's productive
capacity of plant and equipment (but not human skills). National income,  a
measure of the income attributable to the agents of production,  excludes
these  costs and is a better measure of the net increase in the value of out-
put available to firms  and people.
Economic Growth Means Growth in Productivity
  Economic growth also may  be viewed in productivity terms. The concept
of productivity  is not widely grasped with any accuracy.  The  concept is an
analogy to physical efficiency, but it is not the same as physical efficiency.
Physical efficiency is defined as the ratio of useful output to total input. The
concept is anthropomorphic;  someone has to  define useful. Physical ef-
ficiency also is subject to the laws of thermodynamics: energy is conserved;
entropy increases (of which more later).
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   Productivity refers to economic output as a ratio to total input. Because of
the difficulty in measuring  accurately the inputs  of capital and  natural
resources to the processes  of wealth creation, productivity—as  a  con-
venience—is measured most often  in labor  input terms. Hence,  producti-
vity is most often expressed as "output-per manhour." The difficulty with
measuring productivity in output per manhour terms is the tendency created
thereby for false inferences from the  measure to the conclusion that produc-
tivity gains are attributable to improvements  in the  productivity of labor it-
self. In fact, gains in productivity  occur in  an exceedingly roundabout
process,  ranging  from cultural  behavior (in  religious,  social,  political
beliefs, habits, and institutions), through basic  science and educational
policy, to the nature  of economic institutions and  incentives (the patent
system, tax incentives for investment,  and the  like). The point about the
origin and configuration of productivity gains  is important to  understanding
who pays for change  and how.
   Economic growth, when viewed in productivity terms, is expressed as the
increase in GNP, or in national income, per worker.  Or, it may be stated on
a per capita basis if we wish to consider output or income in relation to total
population.  Here, too, the emphasis is on the increase in value terms. At
bottom, then, economic growth implies growth in 1) the total value of the
nation's output, 2) consumption per capita, and 3) the level of living stan-
dards that the population  enjoys.
Economic Growth  Means Change
   Economic growth  is  inseparable  from change,  and  growth  is  ac-
companied  by change, although  not all change is growth. The conditions
under which growth occurs impose  change.  "Creative Destruction" is the
term employed  by the late  Joseph A.  Schumpeter to characterize the
method or  process of  economic change in the enterprise system (1).
Schumpeter described the Creative Destruction  process this way:

       "The opening  up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the
   organizational development of the craft shop and factory to such con-
   cerns as United States Steel illustrate the  same process  of industrial
   mutation —if  I  may use  that  biological  term —that  incessantly
   revolutionizes  the   economic  structure  from  within,   incessantly
   destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one."

   Change and growth come  about when a new product or service invades
an existing market. As, in that market, consumers shift their preference from
the old to the new commodity, the capital used  to produce the old com-
modity is gradually devaluated —destroyed —as profits in its sale decline.
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  Capital is  attracted  to the  new commodity by  its  high  rates of profit.
Growth comes about as the result of innovation derived from new invention.
Together they  render  obsolete the  plant and equipment, and even the
organization, devoted to producing existing commodities; that is, eventually
they reduce  its value to salvage.
  In an enterprise economy, competition in the marketplace serves a social
function analogous to the mechanism of survival in the  evolutionary process
of biology. The test of success in the marketplace is nothing less than sur-
vival, and the reward of survival for a given commodity may be growth. In the
market,  competition  is impersonal  but  pervasive;  and  advances  in
technology of worldwide transport and  communication increase  and  in-
tensify the worldwide forces of competition if not  limited by restraints  on
trade and investment among  nations.
  Competition in a nation exists not only between products or services of a
given  type but  also  between geographic  regions  and  geographically
separated urban  regions. In a political system such as  the United States,
which provides freedom for  the geographic flow of information,  ideas,
money capital, people, and jobs within a broad geographic area, resources
tend to flow to those places where they yield the most human satisfaction.
The process operates in small, marginal movements which,  however, when
cumulated over time periods, reveal very large  changes.
  This principle,  not at all well understood,  helps explain migration pat-
terns.  For example, at  present stages of affluence  and technical means of
transport,  the  United  States  is  becoming more  (1)  urbanized,  (2)
metropolitanized, (3) suburbanized, and (4) coastalized. Urban movement
is explained by  greater economic  opportunity,  even for poor blacks,  in
cities than on farms or in the rural countryside. Studies  of the Urban Institute
show that poor blacks, drawn from the 1967 OEO sample of the poor, who
migrate to urban areas,  within  five years experience increases of $2,000 in
real income  over non-migrants in the sample.
  Economic growth  is thus  an  evolutionary  process  in  which new
technology is tested for its survival value in terms  of  superior ability to
provide  human satisfaction. It is important to understand that  in a market
economy, growth is impelled  by the organization of firms  in markets. The
firm provides a  means of comparing private benefits, as measured  by
revenues of firms, to costs of production,  or private resource costs, includ-
ing ancillary taxation costs to  firms  of public goods necessary to produc-
tion, such as the overhead costs of urban life. Private firms are driven to
reduce costs through the motivation of profit in the face of competition by
other producers.
  It is also important to  understand that the social function of profit is to im-
pel producers to provide the goods and services  that people want and have
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the ability to buy, at reasonable prices, without being forced to do so. The
profit system gives us (1) a method of organizing economic activity that en-
courages enterprise, (2) a way to stimulate risk-taking and  innovation, (3) a
way to allocate the skills of people, our natural resources, and  our  know-
how to purposes consumers think are most useful, and (4) a way to make
heads of firms, whether they want to or not, always try to cut costs and make
resources go as far as  possible  consistent with consumer tastes and in-
come.
   Finally, it is important to understand that economic processes supplant
one another as do biological species, according to their survival value. Sur-
vival value among economic processes is determined by  relative produc-
tivity, in  relation to consumer values expressed  in purchasing habits  and
preferences. The result is that the economic growth process is evolutionary
with respect to rising productivity, in turn related to physical efficiency.  The
marketplace applies the test of economic productivity to  the many com-
peting technologies which may add to physical efficiency.  Thus,  economic
evolution is directly  and profoundly related, in market economics, to the
evolution of scientific knowledge  and technical proficiency. And  it is con-
strained  by definitions and content of cultural concepts such as wealth, in-
come, productivity, and cost. These  concepts have changed their meaning
during the course of industrial evolution and the advance of knowledge. We
can expect that in the future their  meaning and content  will continue to
change  in response to broadened human understanding.
Economic Growth Needs A Cultural Framework
   GNP,  the value of output,  in the United  States  grew at a rate of 3.3  per
cent a year during the 1929-1969 period,  or 2.0 per cent  a year on  a per
capita basis,  both figures adjusted for price changes.
   What is the mechanism by which economic growth occurs in our society?
We must realize that the conditions favoring economic growth develop in a
framework of social beliefs,  customs, and  institutions. Economic life must
not be rigidly constricted by custom or tradition;  rather, it must emphasize
individual creativeness and self-reliance. It must foster the idea that people
are to be esteemed  for what they do rather than for their family's social
position.  Work and material success must be admired. A degree of respon-
sible competition among people must be favored. And opportunities for in-
dividual economic betterment should  be widely  available.
  The climate of thought  must favor a reasoned approach  to problems.
People must be willing to give up  digging sticks for plows,  horses for cars,
sulfur drugs for penicillin, through  faith in the validity of material advance, or
in  the validity of the principle that applied  knowledge improves the quality
of  life. The scientific spirit, the experimental attitude, and respect for univer-
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sal  physical  and  biological pattern  and  configuration  stimulate
technological progress. Supersitition, witchcraft, fatalism,  elements which
have dominated many cultures, are enemies of economic growth.
  There must be a unifying and reasonably stable government to maintain
law and order, to protect both political and economic rights, to enforce con-
tracts, and in general to establish, maintain, and alter rules of the economic
game. Private investors cannot make investment decisions which look to the
future unless life is in some degree orderly and predictable. Producers can-
not market complex services stemming from technological  advance unless
there exists widespread understanding of the beneficent purposes of such
activity.
  Managerial and technological talents must be developed by society and
available for employment. The educational system, and ancillary cultural in-
stitutions of mass media, entertainment, journalism, the church, the  univer-
sity must share to some degree a common "public philosophy" concerning
ultimate human values. There must be people who can and do organize,
launch, and guide new organizations and new ways of doing things.
  There must be investment in transportation and communication networks.
People  who  are isolated  may  not engage  in  industrial  or regional
specialization.  Also,  there must be institutions of banking and the capital
market to provide a monetary medium for trading, for saving, and providing
throughout the geographic reaches of an  economy many competitive chan-
nels through which savings can move to investors.
Government  Fosters  Economic Growth
  Government and  enterprise have  to  cooperate  to  achieve  economic
growth.  In the specific processes of the market, business leaders  in the
United States (each firm acting independently of others) provide the primary
leadership for economic growth.  In pursuit  of profit, adventure, prestige,
power, and creative satisfaction, business leadership struggles to survive in
the marketplace according to existing customs and rules at a  given time.
Management decisions to build more plants, to do more research,  to ex-
pand employment, to re-organize firms, to adopt new marketing techniques,
to change processes,  to  introduce new products  or services,  to  borrow
more funds are all market-conditioned and geared to short run (ten^year, at
most) planning horizons.  Investment  analysts follow corporate results in
profits on a year-to-year, or even  shorter basis, and in  making investment
decisions. The long  run is heavily discounted as against immediate per-
formance.
  Government in the United States, however, has made powerful long-run
contributions  to  the conditions of economic growth.  Perhaps the most
powerful contributions have  aimed at designing framework goals  within
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which economic development could flourish. Provision of personal freedom
and mobility of resources, private property, and limited federal government
is a keystone concontribution of  government. The constitutional rights
provide mobility of key economic  elements —ideas, information,  money,
goods, jobs, people. The public education system, beginning with the Nor-
thwest Ordinance  of 1789,  used public capital (land) to finance human
capital investment (educated people). In the early nineteenth century,  in-
vestment in "inland improvements" with government  funds, later use of
public land to  spur land settlement (Homestead Acts), a laissez-faire policy
of bank and corporate chartering, all stimulated economic development In
the mid-nineteenth century  and beyond,  government devised powerful
means of transfering throughout all the states  knowledge of science and
technology to farming and allied arts through the Morrill Act of 1862, setting
up land grant colleges, and through later legislation, creation of the Federal
Reserve System in 1913 gave the country a  central  banking system to
check  recurrent money panics. And  so on, until  the Employment Act of
1946 established federal responsibility for high employment levels.
   Government also directly  participates  in economic growth. It has been
and is a major investor  in research  and development. In transportation,
Government helped finance canals and railroads, and today it continues to
build highways and to  subsidize aviation and shipping. It invests in labor
force improvement through public education, contributes greatly to college
education by creating  and improving state institutions for technical and
higher education,  by awarding  research grants to universities, and  by
making loans  and  giving scholarships to students.
   Government promotes growth  indirectly  through its   international
economic policies, such as tariffs in the nineteenth century and foreign aid
since World War II, or as in the space effort that has produced technological
fallout for industry  as well as vast new public  understanding ("Spaceship
Earth") of natural laws and of our economic and technological capabilities
(If man can go to the moon, why can't he  ...).
   Government also promotes growth in the U.S. by its policies of fostering
competition. Beginning in the nineteenth century with the New York law of
1811, states began passing general incorporation laws to enfranchise cor-
porations.  By  1875,  such  general  laws  of incorporation,   including1
provisions to protect creditors, were common. By as early as 1865,  the
modern conception of the corporation had emerged, holding that the rights
of creditors and owners as well as technical operation of the business were
subject to the discretion of management, acting as trustees for the owners.
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  Government fosters  competition  also  by  social  policy  respecting
monopoly. If a corporation has a monopoly of a desired good, it can hold off
the  market a portion of the  supply,  force  the price  up,  and  make
"monopoly" profits. Our social policy deals with monopoly in several ways.
If the monopoly is "natural" because technology  is too expensive to
duplicate, we  regulate corporations, as in utilities, telephone, television, air
transportation,  banking, natural  gas, and  other  industries.  If U.S. cor-
porations engage in practices that restrain trade or tend toward monopoly,
they are subject to suit by the U.S. government for violation of antitrust laws.
  Corporations are also subject to a variety  of regulations concerning their
standard of behavior in relation  to public necessity or convenience. These
regulations, in effect, change the definition of cost, productivity, or revenue
for  regulated  corporations,  adding  social  to private  costs or  reducing
revenue (which amounts to increasing cost) by restricting behavior. Such
regulations relate to product purity, conditions of safety,  or protection of the
environment.
Science and  Technology Stimulate Economic Growth
  The basic economic factor causing economic growth is investment,  but
productivity-improving  investment is most  often  based  on  advances in
science and technology. A  distinction  should be made  between  labor-
saving  investment,  as improving the internal  combustion engine, and in-
dustry-creating investment, as creation of the electronic computer industry.
Science and technoJogy contribute to both  processes.  They do so by im-
proving the physical efficiency of an  existing process (making  cars) or by
an invention or discovery creating a new economic process (discovering
the  logic of computers, inventing the computer as an application of  the
logic).
  In the broad sweep of industrial history, science and technology have in-
teracted in creating a rising spiral of efficiency in processes, leading to
productivity gains in the economy. Science and technology make possible
waves of innovation in the economy. An innovation is something new; in art,
drama,  commerce,  industry,  finance, or government. An economic  in-
novation is not the same as an invention. The inventor is  an individual gifted
in translating  technical knowledge into  a new technique or product;  in-
ventors tell us they are rebels against fixed  attitudes in a technical area of
life.  An innovation occurs when some person or firm develops inventions
(either social,  economic, or technical) into workable productive  processes.
Innovation, however, traces out in history the forward march of science and
technology.
  The scientific revolution, which has gained momentum since World War
II, promises to speed the evolution of economic processes throughout the
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world.  This broad-scale revolution of knowledge not only generates new
products and services; it creates also a new perception of the relationship
of ecology to economics. This means that the scientific revolution is not a
typical wave of innovation. Rather, the scientific revolution creates a time of
broad social change;  it fits Hegel's tenet that gradual quantitative change
can ultimately burst into a qualitative revolution.  Earlier, the three stages of
the industrial revolution created waves of economic innovation,  resulting in
social  change.  The new knowledge of the scientific revolution demands
social  innovation as a pre-requisite to economic change.
Growth Requires Saving and Investment
  Economic growth results from  the process  of saving and investing.
Saving means  not  consuming. Investing  means spending (or allocating
resources) for  goods  and services other than  for  consumption.  Saving
means withholding resources from consumption: investing means using the
resources for non-consumption purposes  i.e., to increase or improve the
means of production.
  Savings decisions and investment decisions in  our economy are made by
two different groups which, though  some members  in the groups may be
the same, have to be linked by an institutional mechanism —the capital and
credit markets.  Savers include individuals, families,  business firms, finan-
cial  institutions, and  governmental  units.  Investors include individuals,
business firms, and financial institutions. Obviously,  for example, families
are "on both sides of the market" in that they may be both savers and in-
vestors. This is also  true of other participants  in the capital  and credit
markets.
  These  markets work by linking together in a nationwide network of volun-
tary interfacing  between institutions of the  market, the countless decisions
to save and funneling the savings into financial institutions. Decisions by in-
vestors,  lenders, managers of financial institutions —such as  insurance
companies,  pension funds,  mutual  funds —determine the uses to which
savings will  be put.
  Stock exchanges provide no new savings  or  investment but represent
means for shifting ownership  or creditor rights  through trading of equity
shares or fixed-income securities. But in the credit and capital markets and
within corporations (in part) new savings flow to higher priority investments.
These  higher priority investments provide the  productivity gains,  an in-
crease in the value of output per worker or per  capita, that are translated
into economic growth.
Business Runs on Profits
  Every one knows that the corporation is a device for starting and running
a business. Businesses create economic growth. How do they do it? Busi-
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nesses produce, buy and sell, trade, or perform services  in the market-
place, motivated by profit. The public, according to polls, believes manufac-
turing business makes 28 per cent profit after taxes compared to the cor-
rect figure (1971) of 5 per cent. For all financial corporations, the figure for
profit rates on sales after taxes is only 2.3%. For the average wholesaler or
retailer, the figure is 1.5%. Communications firms have the highest average,
6.2%, but these firms,  many  of which are government regulated, use far
more capital equipment  per  sales dollar than most industries (they are
"capital-intensive"), and  in part they must use after-tax profits to buy it.
  Modern corporations, then, organize and carry on trade and production to
operate on a profit  margin averaging less than a nickel on a dollar of sales
after taxes. Owners  of corporations; that is,  shareholders,  who invest  in
equity shares, may make gains resulting not only from profits (dividend in-
come) but also capital gains (a rise in the market value of the assets behind
the shares owned).  "Growth" companies  pay out small dividends, but
owners risk  savings  in them to get "capital gains."
  The profit system  puts a premium on people who can do things other
people want done.  It gives people opportunity by and large based on what
they  can  do,   regardless   of  circumstances  of   birth  (excepting
discrimination —defacto —as in other leading institutions of church, labor
union, university, and government, against black and female minorities).
  Business firms, operating under the profit motive and facing competition,
respond  quickly  and  flexibly to  changes  in  consumer   tastes and
technology. Although television was invented in the 1920's, years were
required  to perfect its mass  production. But, through  competition,  mass
production from 1947 to about 1970 placed black and white television sets
in more than 90 per cent of United States homes. When people began  to
"eat out" more, franchised fast-service restaurants  learned to limit menus,
rigidly control time of  preparation,  cut costs through  self-service, locate
stores conveniently,  and buy  large quantities with precision, timing and
skill. These are only two  of thousands of examples, taken for granted in a
market economy, of how business firms respond flexibly to consumer tastes
and technology.
  It is important to  understand that,  by and large, individual  existing  firms,
whether they want to change or not, are impelled to change by competition.
To an existing firm, sudden change devaluates its existing capital.  But, if it
does not  change, the value of its assets,  and the value of ownership  rights
to them  suffer capital  losses.  Individual  firms are free to change or not
change,  but  profit is a powerful lash and a powerful reward.
  Now,  naturally,  the  larger  in  scope  or substance  is  a change  in
technology or consumer tastes, the longer it takes for business to respond.
For  example, a major  change in  technology is resisted by firms whose
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present capital would be rendered less valuable. This is the reason Schum-
peter spoke of innovation  as  "invading  a market."  This, too,  is  the
philosophy behind the patent system, which gives  an inventor a 17-year
monopoly but publishes the design for  others to learn from.
  However,  the market system and the profit motive spread the risk of the
destruction of capital that results from economic growth. If a large firm or in-
dustry is "invaded" by an innovation, the market allows time for adjustment,
but competition in the market spurs adjustment. There is no  central direc-
tion, however. And the risk is spread not only over time, but as between
management,  workers,  and  stockholders;  suppliers and  bankers;  and
others related to the firm or industry—all of whom  are free  to make their
own adjustments to developments.
  Keep in mind, however, that major firms, faced  with the invasion of an in-
novation, are reluctant to change in a way that devalues existing capital. In-
deed,  invasion  by an  innovation is analogous to a struggle between
species, and managers of existing firms may choose to resist rather than
risk the new. What's more, business managers have to keep in  mind  the
real changes in technology and taste, not such changes advocated by in-
ventors or students of taste. As a result, managers of existing firms may be
cautious simply because of past success, and this is why the possibility
should  always be  kept open for new entry into an industry facing com-
petition. Existing firms seldom invest in capital-devaluating new technology
until it is thoroughly market tested. And, it may be good management policy
for dominant firms to let some other firm pay the costs of market-testing, and
to move only when results  are unmistakable.
  Even with such a proviso,  however, the dynamic United States economy
in the past, swept by vast waves  of innovation, has been no great friend of
the industrial status quo. One great institutional innovation of the enterprise
economy is bankruptcy. Bankruptcy gives a way of getting rid of unwanted
institutions. In a highly developed society experiencing change, getting rid
of unwanted institutions, those whose value is declining is a critical task. In-
deed, perhaps the time is  not far off to create,  by analogy to corporate
bankruptcy,  a concept and means for instituting "social bankruptcy"  for
non-profit  institutions or government  programs of low priority.
  Milton Friedman  (2)  has explained  the  advantage of the enterprise
system  in  changing the status quo.

      "An unrecognized virture of the market vs. political arrangement is
  precisely that it is far less subject to the tyranny of the status quo. It is
  only necessary for  one individual to  see how he  can benefit from
  changing the status quo for him to start to do so. In a truly free market
  he does not have to get permission from anyone ... Contrast this with
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  the political process. To adopt some measure requires first persuading
  a majority before the measure can be tried. It is hard to start small, and
  once started, to fail. That is why governmental intervention is at once so
  rigid and unstable."
Limits to Economic Growth
  Do we have to stop economic growth in order for mankind as a species to
survive on earth? Will  the earth's interlocking resources be unable to sup-
port present rates  of economic and population growth much beyond the
year 2100,  if that long, even with advanced technology? This is the basic
problem facing  mankind, in the opinion of Jay W. Forrester of MIT and  his
colleagues  Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L Meadows, Jorgen Randers and
William  H. Behrens III, who in 1972 published The Limits To Growth, as a
report of the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of  Mankind (3).
  The "Zero  Economic Growth"  movement is the  extreme form of the
proposition that major emphasis should be placed  on quality as against
quantity of output. Proponents of this doctrine expound the thesis that we
are now about a generation from the point of no return in overusing natural
resources.
  The Club of Rome comprises some eighty members, including scientists,
humanists,  economists, educators,  civil servants; members are represen-
tatives of a wide variety of cultural and value systems,  none of them involved
in current political decisions, nor has the Club as a whole any ideological,
political or  national commitments. They share the common conviction that
the problems  facing mankind are of such complexity and interrelationship
that traditional policies and institutions are no  longer able to cope with
them. Members of the Club of Rome point out that the  club is not to be iden-
tified with the work of Forrester and colleagues but probably would endorse
its main conclusions.
  The project tried, through a  set of mathematical models (the method is
called "systems dynamics"), to simulate the world economy, and, by com-
puting values of the model through 100 or more years of time, to trace out
the dynamics of the system. The major model  asked what  were  the  in-
terrelations  between global population growth, pollution,  food production,
natural  resources depletion, and economic development stated in quan-
tifiable terms  of rates  of change and absolute levels.
  The research  explores the effects of the interaction of the growth modes
of these variables, which  mutually influence  and  often reinforce one
another. It provides, in effect, and for the first time, a panoramic view of the
world's working, that could  never have been obtained by making separate
analyses. It is, therefore, a description of present dynamic situations and
outcomes; it is not intended to indulge in predictions; it is explorative. And
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if not even predictive, it is surely not prescriptive.
  Complex systems are sometimes counter-intuitive. The modern complex
economy  is  beset  by information feedback.  Our dependence on the
automobile is growing through feedback effects on population distribution.
That is, the more cars and roads we have, the more people are enabled to
live in suburbs; but the more people are living in suburbs, the more cars
and roads we need.  Or, people in cities live in poverty, so we build low rent
housing for the poor, so more poor people move into the city, creating an
oversupply of the poor for existing jobs,  and thus poverty in the city in-
creases.

New Concepts of Economic Growth
  Many studies take our present cultural  norms of "industrialism"  as
given. They describe the dynamics of rising world population and spread-
ing industrialism, to show that limits exist on the growth of world population,
expressed  as depletion  of  natural resources,  mounting environmental
damage, or food shortages. Much evidence now suggests that the  era of in-
dustrialism is indeed drawing to  a close.

  If we are entering a new  economic era,   our economic concepts will
evolve. In this  Section  Madden  reviews some of the features of new
economics which must be implemented to improve the quality of the en-
vironment and the quality of  life.
  He discusses cultural changes  and a new global view in which the whole
is seen as more than just the  sum of its parts and man is seen to be closely
interdependent  with his environment.  Madden applies the concept of en-
tropy to economics,  concluding that with our present technology, waste ac-
cumulates faster than useful  output as the economy grows.  He discusses
whether we can find ways to  retard this economic entropy; the proponents
of Zero Economic Growth  contend these is no way to pile up output without
being buried  by waste.  He discusses  two strategies  for overcoming
economic entropy:  more efficient  use  of  energy  and  application  of
knowledge to develop new concepts of wealth, new principles for selecting
economic processes and formulation  of new economic growth policies.
Cultural Changes
  The earlier waves of innovation created by economic growth harnessed to
productivity-increasing science and technology changed the culture of in-
dustrial  societies. These economic processes  have been evolving; that is,
they have changed our  society and its values, creating  at each stage a
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future different from the past. A moment's  reflection brings up countless
examples of cultural  change created by economic growth.
  Now, the scientific revolution presents us with a culture crisis. The search
for improving the quality of life, at its extreme proposing Zero Economic and
Population Growth, is directed toward how  to abandon culture of the past
and to create new culture —a more livable environment. What is meant here
by culture is the definition of anthoropologists who, in the nineteenth cen-
tury, studied the nonbiological extensions of human beings that allow them
to achieve more effective interaction with their environment. Culture  refers
to all the things and devices,  including nonmaterial things such as myths,
beliefs, and stories, that human groups use to enhance,  protect, or express
themselves. Culture allows the human species to survive in the evolutionary
process without having to accomplish biological specialization.
  If we do not control our culture: in the evolutionary advance of mankind, it
will devour us. Through the ages, man has controlled his culture in order to
survive. He has adapted it to conditions. Ours is an age when the existing
culture is strained by new knowledge that conflicts  with our beliefs and
customs. The explosion of new knowledge is not the  same order of im-
portance as the earlier waves of innovation, and they were powerful enough
in  changing our  culture. It  is epochal  in  scope,  ranking with  the
Renaissance. When a culture is put  under strain, its alternatives are few.
One alternative is that population is checked. This has happened before to
other cultures that did not adapt. A second  alternative is that the culture is
fragmented by internal dissension or external domination.  The third alter-
native,  and by far the more consistent with survival, is the invention of new
culture. In the long history of mankind,  all  evidence favors adaptation.
The New Culture Changes Our World View
  Epochal changes in mankind's history stem from new knowledge that is
so general, powerful, and persuasive that it  invades the predominant "view
of reality" or "world-view"; the set  of assumptions, beliefs, and mental
habits that shape our perception of  reality. We find ourselves at such a
hinge of human history, where the old culture at almost every turn clashes
with the new.
  What is the  old culture, where did it come from? As Peter Drucker (4)
points out since Descartes, we have exercised  300 years of intellectual
habit. Rene  Descartes, the French philosopher and  mathematician, more
than anyone  else —more than even Galileo,  or Calvin,  or Hobbes, or Locke,
or Rousseau, more than  Newton—has determined the scope of our per-
ception, our basic concept of what is rational, what is plausible, "common
sense."
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   Descartes made two magnificent contributions that have impelled us for
300 years.  First, he gave us  our basic axiom about the nature of the
universe, that is, the nature of the order in the universe. It is the axiom, "The
whole is the result of its parts."
   Second, Descartes invented  the method to  make  his axiom effective  in
probing nature and organizing  knowledge. His mathematics established a
universal quantitative logic. We have relied on  this  universal logic to deter-
mine relationships between concepts,  and it has been capable of  serving
as universal symbol and universal language.
   Descartes'  formulation created  modern scientific analysis and  the
modern specialized university, army,  and business  organization.  It now
eventuates in a maddening confusion of tongues among various branches
of knowledge.  It makes  easy the  growth of delimited  bureaucracy.  It
stultifies  perception  of any aspects of reality except analytical.
  The characteristics of our modern disciplines are incompatible with
Descartes. Every one of them has moved from cause to pattern and con-
figuration. They are concepts of a whole, of an  organism or an institution or
a process that can only be understood as a whole, as a pattern,  as a con-
figuration.
  The contrast is sharp between the two world  views.  First,  the basic axiom
is that the whole is more than, different from, the sum of its parts; whole and
parts are interacting.  Second, man may not stand, as it were, outside nature,
analyzing nature apart from  himself.  Cartesian thought led to control over
nature —the promethean myth —as man separated his mind from his body,
following Descarte's dictum, "I  think; therefore, 1 am." And finally, the new
world view is that of irreversible process, not  reversible action within ab-
stract time and space.
  The three characteristics of the new era may be called holism, naturalism,
immanentism. We are about to embark on a strategy of knowledge which
sees processes holistically—sees  the  patterns and  configurations that
determine the flow of events  within processes. The guiding philosophy of
the new culture also  includes a new naturalism, which affirms that man is a
part of nature, of the universe, that  itself is  always in  the  process of
becoming. And, third, a new immanentism sees that the system, organism,
or situation that is in process of evolving is determined not from outside but
from within.
  The debate over limits to growth  signifies that a profound re-examination
is taking place in man's view of  his relationship to nature, to his institutions,
and to his  fellow man. Ours  is  a  society which,  until  recently, rarely
challenged  the virtue of continued economic  growth, per se.  But  today's
concern about the quality of life and about the impact of economic and
population growth on human  survival  is the outcome of the very scientific
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revolution that has generated much of today's industrial capacities. It is the
very new knowledge itself which challenges  old viewpoints.
  As a result, our society is at-a point of profound change, from a society in
which production of goods was of primary concern to one guided by a new
growth policy, dominated more by services and by the creation and use of
new knowledge. The  present is a period of marked  social change, one
aspect of which is the search for a new policy of balanced growth to guide
that change. Such .a new policy of balanced  growth  will  have profound ef-
fects in changing present  institutions.  These institutions themselves  are
required now to undergo evolution, in order to re-orient themselves toward
the tasks appropriate for a society reaching for a new level of performance.
The  range of criteria  by which  to judge  institutional performance will be
broader  in scope and  longer  in time perspective. To determine these
criteria is a major cultural task of our times.
Entropy In The Economic Process
   In terms of economic theory and policy, the concern of environmentalists
that eventuates in doctrines of Zero Economic Growth and Zero Population
Growth raises the issue of  the relationship  of entropy to economics. As
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen argues, the issue is  fundamental  (5). The
issue addresses the  meaning  of the flow and irrevocability  of time,  the
characteristics  of  life, the  nature of causality in  biological  and social
science, and the theory of economic development.
   To understand the impact of the idea of entropy,  consider first the con-
cept of time  in economics.  The concept  is  drawn directly from  classical
mechanics, in turn  derived from the mathematics of Descartes. The Car-
tesian, reference-axis depiction of time assumes that time intervals are car-
dinally measurable.  That is, it is assumed that qualitative differences in time
-periods can  be ignored in measuring time  intervals.  The implication of
assuming that time is cardinally measureable is that time is also reversible.
Economists,  in  employing  the mathematics  of  Descartes,  unwittingly
assume that time is reversible.  Economic theory  studies the allocation of
resources among competing ends, assuming that tastes, technology, and
resources are given. In analyzing the relationships between revenues and
costs,  economists pay litfle or  no regard to  the impact of the economic
process itself on tastes, technology, or the availability of resources. These
aspects of the economic processes are considered  as "externalities," that
is, as costs or benefits which are "external"  to the theory of the firm or
market. Unwittingly, economists  have failed to  realize that  waste and
pollution are not "external" to  the economic process,  but flow  from  the
irrevocable nature of time.
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   In the classical theory of thermodynamics physicists have had ftp face the
irrevocable character of time. The first law of thermodynamics  n&lds that
throughout the flow of time, in any closed energy system, energy is\con-
served; that is, total energy remains constant and may be transformed^ut
not created or destroyed. The second law of thermodynamics involves eri^
tropy.  Broadly, entropy measures the rate at which free or latent energy,
available to do work,  becomes  bound energy no longer able to do work.
The Entropy Law, simply stated, holds that the entropy of energy systems in-
creases constantly and irrevocably. The Entropy Law means that waste and
pollution (i.e.,  bound energy unavailable to do work) increase inevitably in
the flow of energy in any closed energy system operating through dynamic,
irreversible time. The laws of thermodynamics clearly apply to  economic
processes just as they also apply to any other processes involving energy
flows.  Indeed, other things being equal,  waste and pollution  pile up at a
faster rate than output grows.
The Accumulation of Waste
  To grasp, therefore, the implications of this new insight into the nature of
the economic  process, and to arrange policy measures consistent with its
significance,  is  a part of the  new world-view through which alternative
growth processes, and questions such as who pays for growth and how,
must be seen. To begin to see them, it may be helpful to examine the Zero
Economic Growth and Zero Population  Growth arguments from the per-
spective  of the earlier Malthusian theory.
   Malthus (1766-1834) focused his entire social and  economic thought on
his ideas about population. He argued  that population when unchecked
grows  at a rate so much faster than it is possible to increase the supply of
food, that population is constantly pressing on the means of subsistence.
What Malthus  overlooked  is easy to see by hindsight. It is the  growth  of
productivity in the last century and a half. To put the point another way, we
know that in physical terms, output is a function of inputs, in any production
process.  We call the relation "the production function." Malthus thought the
production function would stay stable, that the relation itself of inputs to out-
put would not change.
   But  the production function did not stay fixed and invariant.  By  ever-
increasing productivity in the Western World, we have shifted the produc-
tion function to get each year on average more output for a given input of
resources. So, in the industrial countries, both our population and our stan-
dard of living have risen, and we have so far escaped "the Malthusian trap."
  The  present-day Zero Economic Growth school may be  called "neo-
Malthusian." To see why, we need to focus on the waste created by produc-
tion, which, as we have seen, piles up at a faster rate than useful output
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does.  To see how, we may consider a twentieth-century discovery of the
relation Eugene Zubrow of the University of Colorado calls, not only aptly
but accurately, "the crud function."
  A crud is defined as a  stockpile of noods, and a nood is defined  as a
negative good. An economic good is the physical embodiment of a stream
of services  which is scarce and useful. A nood is the physical embodiment
of something that must be harmful—and so,  results in disutility. Also, it must
be relatively abundant. And crud is, as we have seen,  a function of output,
just as output in turn is a function of input. Crud mounts with output, but at a
faster, exponential, pace. The Zero Economic  Growth thesis is that there is
no way to keep piling  up output without being buried in mountains of crud.
Strategies  for Retarding Entropy
   The  issue posed   by the  Zero  Economic Growth thesis is  whether
mankind can systematically shift the crud function, as  it earlier has shifted
the production function. We need to get less crud for a given output.  But
how?  To answer this question is to lay the groundwork for understanding
generally the requirements of alternative growth policies consistent with the
morality of science seen as natural philosophy. And, by the same token, to
answer this question provides a rationale for policies involving trade-offs of
distributing the benefits and costs of the economic process with equity and
clarity, and therefore,  with political legitimacy.
   The escape from "the entropy trap" posed by the Zero Economic Growth
thesis requires a step forward in cultural evolution to full recognition of the
meaning to the economic  process of the laws of thermodynamics. It is not
technology  which is to come to mankind's rescue. Already, as we have seen
earlier,  market  economies provide  a  survival  test of alternative
technologies.  What  may  come  to our  rescue is  therefore not "more
techology." Rather, it is the guideposts provided by the scientific revolution
itself.  Our knowledge, and its implied morality, not technology, provide the
choice.
   By analogy to biological evolution, industrial society  has, in general, only
two strategies of escape from the entropy  trap:

      1. deliver more  useful energy to  our  systems and  substitute
   energy for matter in processes; or
      2. bring to bear more  useful information in social  and  economic
   processes.

  These  two abstract  and interrelated strategies—not  now fully
grasped —offer the rationale for designing  policy consistent with balanced
economic growth. They suggest  that the  Zero Economic Growth thesis,
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though  certainly as valuable as the earlier Malthusian theory,  does not
means necessarily an  end to the growth of wealth. Far from it.  The Zero
Economic Growth thesis has, as its highly significant positive value, the vir-
tue of challenging the world-view of the industrial society which has hitherto
ignored the crucial role of environmental balance and resource depletion.
In its industrial stage,  mankind has learned to "get more from the same."
Now, say the Zero Economic Growth advocates, he must learn to "accept
the same, but from less." It is the  thesis of the present argument that the
Zero Economic Growth thesis misstates the alternative. The alternative is, as
Buckminster Fuller has argued, "to get more from less." That is, the view
held here is that wealth can positively  increase from economizing much
more severely on material  inputs to the economic process than before.
Using Energy to Retard Entropy
  The first strategy, bringing more useful energy to our systems, means im-
proving  energy-conversion  ratios  over the  widest  possible  range  of
physical, economic, and social processes. We can no longer rely as a mat-
ter  of principle on brute  increases in total energy use. We have as yet to
take into account how growth in total energy use carries system  effects in
heat pollution  and environmental imbalance. Limitless energy appears no
more possible than limitless growth in populations of physical  objects,
because the Entropy Law places a limiting factor on total energy use as well
as material use.
  Substituting energy for materials, however, is not incompatible with im-
proving energy-conversion ratios. Involved  is a design principle of great
power to create future wealth.  Examples include Fuller's geodesic dome,
giving a saving of one to a hundred in the use of physical resources to en-
close space.  Economizing physical resource-use  in achieving given
purposes, through substituting useful energy, extends to house and com-
munity design as both a functional and aesthetic principle. Overhanging
eaves and  reflective  glass  are entropically more  effective than profligate
use of air conditioning. In communities, attention to human  group behavior
reduces dependence on automobiles, as in Columbia, Maryland, for trips to
school and  church, or in protection of pedestrians from car traffic. Sub-
stituting communications for transportation is far less an entropic burden,
where messages  are useful. Thus, Dartmouth's president John Kemeny's
proposal for a nationwide, automated and computer-based reference library
is a great entropic gain. Future universities, seen  as television production
centers,- having two-way networks of communications,  and using teachers
as tutors or coaches or educational  managers,  but  not  lecturers offers
similar energy-conversion gains.
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Using Knowledge to Retard Entropy
  The second strategy for avoiding or postponing the Entropy Trap in-
volves bringing more useful information to bear on social and economic
processes. The strategy is likely to generate (1) new definitions of the con-
tent of wealth  and welfare, (2) a  new principle of selection of economic
processes and technology, and (3) a new formulation of economic growth
policy. Such a revision of the strategy of advance in industrial societies also
will revise the means of allocating the  costs of growth and financing them.
  To bring more  useful  information  to bear on social  and economic
processes calls first for reorganizing education, to aim it at Life  in all its
manifestations  and at imbuing the processes  of  education with com-
munication  of universal pattern and configuration.  Such an "invasion" of
education by innovation creates new wealth and devaluates old wealth.  The
new wealth is  entropically a gain of many magnitudes, and it is likely to
stimulate the growth of wealth in unforeseen amounts. From the viewpoint of
the morality of science  as natural philosphy, our slow reorganization of
education is both dangerous and wasteful.  Second, the strategy calls for
revolutions  in the  nation's  communications style  and policy. The age of
specialization risks destruction of the vestiges  of a "public philosophy"
through the proliferation of "sub-cultures" and obstruction of economic ad-
vance from ignorance and fear of advanced technology. Turning the point
around, the conception of the media as to their role, and the view of cor-
porations as  to  their   responsibility  in  communications  also  need
revolutionary change. The media role should be to seek for positive as well
as negative understanding. Corporations should communicate what they do
and why and how. Such changes in policy bring more useful information to
bear generally on  social  processes.
New Concepts of Wealth
  To be more specific, bringing more useful information to bear means in-
venting new systems of measurement for social and economic processes in
order to bring about a perception of these processes more consistent with a
global  view.   The  pay-off  in  such  new  measurement  systems  is  a
changed  perception of social and  economic processes that will permit the
creation of new wealth. New wealth,  be it remembered, competes with and
destroys old wealth while adding to human welfare. To create new wealth, in
a period  of a  change in world-view, people  must be able to "see"  the
possibilities of advance and welfare in doing so.
  Keeping in mind, then,  that wealth itself has an anthropomorphic aspect
(even  the simplest of physico-economic measures, efficiency,  requires
human beings to specify purpose), it  seems that if perceptions of wealth are
to change, then measurement systems have to change. All this seemingly
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remote concern for perception is at the heart of developing policies for
balanced growth. The present is a time when one world-view gives way to
another. How is the new world-view to be imparted? In the personal sense,
as has been said above, it is to be  imparted by restructuring the com-
munication of knowledge. In the technical sense, the new world view has to
be imparted in new measurement systems, which correspond in conception
with  the new understandings of  the 20th century scientific revolution.
  In  other words, new content has to be given to concepts of wealth and
welfare, in a deeply technical sense. The substantive reason imbedded in
the scientific revolution itself is that  a new economic strategy is called for.
The  new growth strategy defines the content of wealth not only in terms of
gains in productivity, conventionally defined, but also  in terms of entropic
efficiency.
  The technical  issue is to  include new systems of measuring social costs
and  benefits in the calculus of social and economic processes. The prin-
ciple has many  applications,  only sketched here, in relation to redefining
wealth  and welfare. One application is the rapid development, as recom-
mended by the National Academy of  Scence and Engineering, of worldwide
systems of measuring in physical terms the state and changes in the state of
the  physical environment.  A counterpart,  equally important, is  similar
systems of measuring the social environment, at  least  in the nation, and if
possible, worldwide  (6).  Far  larger  resource-investment in environmental
measurement  systems has a high   pay-off  in bringing more useful in-
formation to social and  economic  processes,  while  suppression of in-
formation is threatening to  human survival.
  Another application lies in fuller social  costing  of environmental impacts
of economic processes. It should be understood that fuller social costing
changes the content of concepts of wealth, costs,  productivity, and income.
New systems of measurement can "internalize" social benefits and costs of
environmental impacts over a wide  range. Doing so will allow for  market
evaluations  to shift the  structure of  production from  processes  rapidly
creating large amounts of waste and  pollution to processes —in some por-
tion,  entirely new ones —that slow the growth of waste and pollution. Fuller
social costing of private production gives a generalized answer to the
question of who pays for change and how. The answer given is that, through
the market, the risks of enterprise in  the face of social costing are borne as
before  in a complex combination of  producers and consumers, but a com-
bination in which costs of devaluating capital are widely shared according
to market principles  of independent jugment.
  Fuller resource costing operates through pricing principles. The price of
products or  services rises in proportion to their environmental drain, either
in production or  use. The price,relative to theirs, of substitutes having lower
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social costs, will fall. Consumers, paying fuller social costs, remain free to
choose.  But surely,  some processes whose private benefits now exceed
their private costs, will be driven out of production by high new social costs.
New Principles for Selecting  Economic Processes
  The recognition of entropy in economics creates a new principle of selec-
tion of economic processes. How could any change be more powerful and
pervasive than a  new principle of selection in evolution? The  dogma of
"Bigger and Better" is replaced by a maxim closer to "Smaller  is Better."
Economic value becomes identified with minimizing the drain on  resources
and the environment of a given economic process and  function. A new
policy goal  for balanced  growth  is  to discover and attain a  degree  of
pollution control at which the cost of a little more control or prevention just
equals the  benefits—both private and public—of reducing pollution.
  Fuller social costing that creates a new selection principle for social and
economic processes requires developing new social indicators  of benefit
and cost. Far more investment is needed at  once in creating both en-
vironmental and social indicators. The technique of technology assessment
is only in its infancy. These new systems of measurement are vital to fuller
social costing.
  To  formulate a new  policy  of balanced  growth  requires  fuller un-
derstanding of the role of  knowledge in the social and economic process.
Knowledge,  or something amounting to knowledge by virtue of a highly
improbable  structure,  is the  only thing that can grow or evolve  in the
process of cultural evolution. While Zero Economic Growth as a  policy ap-
pears to  overstate  the  constraints  on  the  economic  process,  Zero
Population  Growth appears to  understate  the constraints, according  to
present understanding. Mankind needs to give more concern to the long
term future  in making present decisions, since these decisions change the
process of  cultural evolution.  In concept the concern should be aimed at
maximizing  what  Georgescu-Roegen calls  "total  Life Quantity," that  is,
the  sum of all  individuals to  be alive in the future.  Zero  Population
Growth,  it could  be argued, takes too superficial a view.
Organizing —Knowledge
  In considering knowledge as  a process, Kenneth  Boulding distinguishes
between "printing" and "organizing" as forms of knowledge. Printing  refers
to the ability of a structure to reproduce itself, to make a copy of itself. We
see this in  the behavior of genes. We see it,  Boulding points out,  in the
mass  production  of  physical commodities,  which  is largely  threer
dimensional printing.  Rote learning and  basic emotional  sets  are a
neurological form of printing. Organizing knowledge, by contrast, is the ac-
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tion of a gene in generating its phenotype —"As ye sow, so shall ye reap."
In this sense, an idea creates an organization. Or an industrial strategy for a
nation organizes  its economic history.
  What shall  be the organizing  knowledge that creates  the  social and
economic development of the United States and the world in the decades
ahead? The process of economic development is not a process of "prin-
ting"  but of "organizing"  knowledge. No system of equations can describe
an evolutionary process in which  novelty is inherent. The United States, it
could be argued,  is in a period of economic development when organizing-
knowedge rather than printing-knowledge represents its major comparative
advantage, in relation  to Western Europe and Japan. Our dynamic com-
parative advantage appears  to lie in low-cost agriculture (not allowing for
fuller social  costing) and high technology  products and services.  Our
earlier advantages  in mass production are being reduced.
  To  explore further the  idea of organizing-knowledge, consider the con-
cept of capital. The traditional view of capital  is physical capital  —physical
structures such as plants and equipment, schools, buildings, and the like.
But,  in considering the role of knowledge in economic processes, we can
see that capital, as economic value, refers to the value of the knowledge im-
posed on the design of  physical  capital.  In essence, from an economic
view,  capital  consists of knowledge  imposed  on  the  physical  world.
Economists are trying to develop and measure a concept of "total capital"
that includes intangible as well as tangible resources. The idea suggests
that,  to increase our  capital,  we should concentrate our energies  on
knowledge processes —that is, on organizing knowledge.
  A  new growth strategy of bringing to bear more knowledge and useful
energy in  order to slow down the growth of waste and pollution in effect in-
troduces  into growth policy a far  longer time  dimension than  is now
possible to cope with effectively. Governmental and business policy is more
and  more  geared to short run payoffs. Government,  by taking on more
operational responsibilities, subjects itself to more evaluation in terms of
short run  benefits  and  costs.  Corporations,  now  largely managed  by
professionals, are under short-term scrutiny of investment analysts and por-
tfolio  managers having stringent performance standards for short run  in-
vestment objectives. For  top corporate  executives, the pressures of short
run profit results are implacable. To the  extent, then, that planning horizons
for balanced growth objectives must  be lengthened, the lengthening has to
be built into the benefit-cost  measurement system both in government and
in business.
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Sustainable Growth
  Given that new concepts of growth and its relationship to new societal
values and the quality of life are emerging what growth can we expect, and
what changes, must we  achieve in our fundamental philosophy? Chester
Cooper discusses these questions in his invited paper, with a viewpoint of
ZPG differing with that of the preceding author.	
  Before embarking on an inquiry into the relationship between growth and
the Good Life, it  is important to advance  one preliminary  observation:
Population  growth as opposed to. economic growth  is not at  issue.  No
society can make perceptible improvements in  its quality  of life if its
energies are absorbed in providing survival kits for its  human census. And
while economic growth,  at least as measured by GNP, is related in  part to
population growth, few societies currently in the "have-not" category can
honestly  promise  its members anything  but a  continuing  struggle  for
existence unless  it moves vigorously and expeditiously toward effective
family planning. This is becoming a matter for serious consideration even
among the  "have" societies. Thus, Zero  Population Growth  (with  a few,
trivial exceptions)  must now be  regarded as an  essential goal for any
society concerned with providing a meaningful choice of life-styles for its
members.
  The question of economic growth is much more complex and subtle.
Here, the issue is not growth or  no-growth. Nor does passage to  Utopia
come with a firm  and unequivocal vote for Zero Economic Growth.
  Two fundamentals  condition the prospects for achieving some measure
of societal well-being: a substantial sector of society must have access to
discretionary income, and a society must be able and willing to provide ser-
vices and amenities over and above minimal necessary law and  order and
security  from external threats.  Obviously,  neither  the  existence  of
discretionary  income nor a socially motivated government elite, alone,  is
sufficient. The quantities,  the kinds  and  the quality  of  social services,
whether in the form of police protection or nursing  care, reflect the choices
and expectations  manifested within the society.
Need For Discretionary Income
  The amount and distribution of discretionary income available to or on
call in a society is a product of past (and, to some  extent,  anticipated)
economic growth and of governmental policy with regard to the distribution
of the fruits of such growth within  the society. It is no accident that "poor"
societies have inferior educational systems, medical care programs and
mental health facilities,  regardless of the aspirations and desires of their
people. On the other hand,  if "rich"  societies do not reach out for ex-
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cellence or at least adequacy in these and other fields, it is because either
they have chosen not to do so,  perhaps  because of other priorities or
because of  cultural or religious constraints.  Thus,  economic growth  has
been a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for making possible the
exercise of meaningful choice on an  individual level (how many hours of
work and how many  hours of leisure) or on a societal level (how many
visiting nurses in a town and how many children in a classroom).
  Clearly, then, if a society is to entertain realistic aspirations to move
beyond the level  of  more  survival to a more advanced state of social
fulfillment, the  size of the  proverbial  "pie" must exceed minimal  critical
dimensions and must be sliced so that there  is enough to go around.  For
many societies, especially but not exlusively less-developed societies, a
moratorium on  baking bigger pies (no growth) would not only be patently
unjust, but would be a recipe for domestic and international tension. In  any
case, we are probably addressing an academic issue; it seems unlikely that
any responsible society would permit it to happen especially as a voluntary,
self-denying act to satisfy the advocates of Zero Economic Growth.
Need  For Social  Services
  The balance struck among social services  as well as between services
and  industrial production in a society is a reflection (in democracies at
least) of the desires and aspirations of its members.  This is the case, even
though competitive,  sometimes  countervailing  individual  and  social
desires  and  even though unresponsive  governmental  and  corporate
bureaucracies prevent anything like a perfect  match  between what is wan-
ted and what is provided.
  But even if the system  were much more efficient and the signals dispat-
ched to government and corporate policy makers were more sharply discer-
nible, time lags between decision and implementation would have to be
reckoned with.  Modern societies (and  this encompasses virtually every
society concerning us here) are complex; any  consequential shift in  policy,
either  government or corporate, involves a cycle of research,  planning,
decision making, staffing, and implementation more  likely to be measured
in years rather than months. And in the  meantime, new concerns,  revised
expectations and perhaps new knowledge may make yesterday's decisions
redundant or even counter-productive in terms of today's requirements.
Growth and Stewardship
  Any critical inquiry into the concept of growth invokes considerations of
the future.  But  humility as  well as  prescience  is  important here. Such
deliberations,  particularly if they  evolve into prescriptive forms,  intrude
upon the lives of those to come. We must,  as we project our thinking, be
wary of the traps that lie in trying to penetrate  the mists of distant decades;
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who, as he attempted to portray the future in the mid-1940's, would have
been able to sketch more than an abstract impression of our world today?
The kind of judgments we wish to make about the future are much more
complex than can be provided through the extrapolation of a few selected
statistical series.
  Since the concept of "stewardship" implies present restraint for the sake
of future benefit, we would be prudent to limit our considerations to a few
decades ahead.  Personal,  even  collective,  discounting  of  the future
becomes increasingly great as a society plans for generations it is destined
never to see. This takes on a different dimension, however, when one con-
templates  the  span  of a   generation  or  two.  Only  the  pathologically
hedonistic would not profess a readiness to limit current consumption in or-
der to leave something of value for his children, possibly for theirs. This im-
pulse varies from culture to culture, from society to society, from income
level to income level, indeed from individual to individual. It has been par-
ticularly strong in the United States, which  might explain why economic
growth  has been  such an important element in American  policy  and
mystique.  In any case,  somewhere between profligacy and miserliness,
most men in most societies have long conducted their personal affairs with
the concept of legacy in mind. On a societal basis, however, at least until
the recent past, this concept has tended to be ignored; personal legacies
were one thing,  collective legacies another.
  Savings and the accumulation of capital are the usual means for funding
growth,  especially in industrialized'societies. Savings,  of course, are the
product of abstinence; by consuming less than their income, individuals or
communities can produce surpluses which,  through the mechanisms and
institutions of modern societies, can be so invested as to enlarge the stock
of capital.  Much of the present concern about growth and stewardship
stems from societal and individual confusion about the process of capital
accumulation and the consequences of its dissolution. If  by capital  we
mean, as the economists do, investable funds or plant or equipment, its ac-
cumulation provides the foundation for further economic growth and its ex-
penditure, deterioration  or  depreciation  can be replaced. What troubles
many of those who are uneasy about the future is that economic develop-
ment involves invading the stock of nonrenewable resources and of starting
what may  be  the  irreversible  pollution of  the environment.  And while
miserliness in the  expenditure  of  depletable resources  is obviously a
masochistic and self-defeating policy for those now inhabiting the planet,
profligacy and carelessness by individuals,  corporations, or societies as a
whole cheats future generations of their rightful legacy. Thus, collective
stewardship must take two  forms: accumulation of capital through saving
and investment; restraint in the depletion of non-renewable resources and
in the pollution of the environment.

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  There are distinguished scientists who make the point that technological
breakthroughs have expanded the resources horizons by several orders of
magnitude over the past century and that technology can be counted on to
do the same for generations  to come. And there are eminent economists
who maintain that the market place  and the price mechanism will  provide
warnings of the dangerous curves and road blocks that lie ahead in suf-
ficient time so that individuals, corporations and whole  societies can alter
their course.
  It must be acknowledged that, to the extent that history over decades past
provides evidence,  these views are persuasive.  But,  it must  also  be
recognized that scientists and economists must ply their trades within the
system—-a  system which, in virtually every  country of the world, has
become increasingly complex and constipated. In short, technological and
economic solutions,  if they exist, may not be  implementable or even per-
ceptible in time to help over the tricky decades immediately ahead.  Relying
blindly on  technological  innovation or economic forces may be  playing
roulette with the future.
Characteristics of Sustainable Growth
  If growth, especially economic growth, is to be addressed as an  issue of
public policy, particularly in terms of its relationship to such nonquantifiable
concepts as the Quality of Life and  Stewardship, the matter is much more
subtle than the discussion, thus far, may indicate. To imply that the question
can  be put in terms of growth or no growth is to oversimplify the central
dilemma. Few knowledgeable people would argue that in the industrialized
countries economic growth should (or even can) proceed for more than a
few more decades without regard to the profligate consumption of energy
and  non-renewable resources or the despoilment of the environment. Nor
would many argue that a  halt  to economic growth would be a valid, univer-
sal solution to the present predicament. Indeed, it is implausible to suppose
that any single formula could  be generally applicable, given the enormous
present  disparities  in   income  levels,  cultural  backgrounds,   popular
aspirations, and population-resource ratios.  Although growth obviously
means something very different to the already-developed as opposed to the
developing  areas  of the world, growth  as  opposed  to stagnation  is
ingrained  in the political,  social, economic, and psychological fabric of vir-
tually every westernizing  society. Perhaps the  most that can be said is that,
with prudent consumption of non-renewable resources and with careful
consideration for the environment, the moment of truth for economic growth
can  be pushed back several generations during which  time  growing
wisdom, technological progress and institutional innovation may  provide''
some solutions that are not now discernible.
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  In thinking about the longer term, the concept of sustainable growth may
prove a more useful point of analytical departure. Sustainable growth is not
only  that rate and kind of growth which the economic calculus and the
resource traffic  will  bear, but the rate and  kind of growth a society,  for a
variety  of reasons,  is  anxious  to  achieve or  able to tolerate.  Thus,
sustainable growth  should not  be interpreted as "sustained" growth.  In-
deed, some countries (Holland is an example) may have already passed
the point where sustained growth is sustainable. Sustainable growth,  then,
would take the form of a conscious national or societal objective as well as
a process. It implies certain reasonably well-defined views about the  long-
term future,  both  in terms of  available  resources  and of  needs and
aspiration. This, in turn, assumes that governments, as well as large cor-
porations have the willingness and capacity to engage in  meaningful  long-
range planning and that policy and decision-makers  have adequate  in-
formation, tools  and techniques for gauging a society's aspirations and  for
measuring the effectiveness of response.
  The choice of the adjective "sustainable" to modify the noun "growth,"
was  influenced  by several  considerations:

  1.  The inquiry should be projected into the future rather than simply con-
    sist of an analytical snapshot of the present: Thus, in the light of what
    we  now know  (or think  we know),  what  forms and  directions  of
    economic growth would best meet the requirements and aspirations of
    our own generation and yet not place in jeopardy the requirements and
    aspirations of the generation or two to follow?
  2.  The concepts  of  growth,  quality of  life and  stewardship must  be
    represented in  the matrix of the analysis and in any prescriptions that
    might flow  from it.
  3.  Advocacy of  Zero Net Economic Growth, on the one hand, or of con-
    tinued rapid economic growth, on the  other, has no validity as an ab-
    stract concept;  to the extent that either may  be valid  depends  on
    detailed analysis of particular situations.  In any case, neither position
    can be wholly right or wholly wrong:  present amenities are largely the
    consequence of past  growth, but the indefinite continuation of past
    rates of growth  will almost certainly be  constrained by physical and  in-
    stitutional factors.
  4.  From this  follows that the optimum growth that  may apply to one
    society  cannot  be  generalized  as a  model for others,  and that a
    generalized model is  likely to have limited  applicability at best to any
    particular society. If this be so, generalized models and the prescrip-
    tions that flow from them are likely to be  of little practical use to  plan-
    ners and policy-makers.
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  5. Judgments with respect to the kinds, directions and rates of economic
     growth appropriate to a particular society obviously must take account
     of such quantifiable factors as mineral and agricultural resources, size
     of population, levels and  distribution of income, accessible,  useable
     land and availability of fresh water. But they must also be based on the
     political, social and economic institutions and the cultural and religious
     patterns which may stimulate, constrain or even shape the environment
     in which economic growth takes place.
  6. Account should be taken of the international tensions that may arise
     and the adaptations  and new institutional developments that may be
     required to cope with resource and environmental constraints and dif-
     ferential  rates and directions of growth.

  There are those who argue that physical constraints need  not inhibit
economic growth over the long term. Confidence  in the problem-solving
capabilities of  technology and  the regulating  capabilities of the  price
mechanism looms large in this bullish view of the future. There is much to
be said for such optimism; we need only look back over our own lifetimes
for  impressive, corroborative  evidence. Invention,  innovation,  and adap-
tation since the eighteenth century have eased past problems of population
and  economic growth.
  One  can be justifiably uneasy about the  future,   however,  without
derogating the accomplishments of the past. A gnawing question is whether
the pace of technological,  economic  and social change can continue to
keep up with the  problems created by ever-more rapid growth and its ac-
companying environmental degradation, physical clutter and social tension.
There is no dearth of technical plans to save the cities, clean up the rivers,
dispose of solid waste. But, unhappily,  there is also no dearth of public
lethargy, political  inertia and institutional rigidity.  Thus we continue to con-
front rotting,  virtually  bankrupt  cities,  congested highways,  energy
shortages,  and frequent "pollution alerts."
  It  seems clear that the cultural,  political and social characteristics  of a
society will play an important role in influencing the direction and shape of
its economic growth. Indeed, these factors may have a more important effect
in constraining  or channelling  growth than the decreasing availability and
increasing  cost of non-renewable resources. But the unplanned movement
of growth into lines of least institutional resistance is not necessarily a for-
mula for achieving a pattern that is sustainable  over the long  term.

Who Pays for Change?

  Economic growth has many costs. Included are the  cost of investment
and  foregone  consumption, foregone  leisure,  the  destruction of capital

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made obsolete by new products and technology and others. The costs of
growth are spread throughout the economy and Madden concludes that the
costs of change can be borne. Basically, growth can be financed from the
additional income derived from growth. Madden's discussion is presented
below.	
The  Change —Costs of Growth Are Widely Spread
  Economic growth,  as  portrayed  here,  refers to the increase in the
capacity of the economic process to provide whatever values have the
highest priorities in a particular society: more goods, of whatever kind most
desired, or more services, or even more leisure (7). There  is no one op-
timum rate of growth,  since growth itself is not free of charge, but has costs
that  rise disproportionately with its rate,  and with  its  benefits.  It  is
meaningless to express  economic  growth as a percentage  increase  in
some index, since the composition of the growth increment is as important
as its size.  In farm economies, growth in agricultural output may have the
most meaning. After the food and fiber criterion come durable goods. And
after the durable  goods  standard  of  growth, perhaps come Abraham
Maslow's   higher  human  needs—of  belonging,  esteem,  and  self-'
realization —in education, in travel, in leisure, in helping others, in getting-
away-from-it-all.
  Certainly, in a consumer-oriented  society, we must balance the benefits
of growth against the costs of achieving various growth rates, to establish at
a given  time a desired rate  of growth, not necessarily the  maximum rate.
Economic growth has real resource costs: the values foregone in acquiring
it. In the pursuit of balanced  growth, we must not lose sight of other goals,
such as individual freedom, the flexibility of private enterprise and market
responsiveness, or the principle of  limiting the role of government.
  As explained earlier, in an enterprise economy dominated by markets,
the  change-costs  of  economic  growth are widely spread throughout the
economy. Even at times of nearly full employment, some areas or industries
have high jobless  rates,  and  even in prosperity, some regions and  in-
dustries and occupations  are under-paid. However, the period since World
War  II has seen an epic migration or rural blacks to urban areas inside and
outside the  South, with resulting gains in real income and some (though not
enough) gap-closing  as between median income of white and non-white
families.
  Measured by expectations, the change-costs of growth may appear inor-
dinately  high. However, measured by performance in raising real incomes,
by mobility  patterns of large  groups, by international comparisons, and by
standards of consumption, it is difficult  to resist the conclusion that the
change-costs of growth have been widely distributed in the United States.
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Growth Has Economic Costs
  At any one time, the rate of  growth depends largely in a complex in-
dustrial economy on the share of resources diverted from current con-
sumption for investment purposes. Investment has to be broadly interpreted
to include any economic activity which increases the total supply of produc-
tive resources or improves their quality. Productive  resources of course in-
clude managerial and technical  as well as other labor skills and supplies,
so that investment  includes education and  research  as much as  power
plants  and machine tools.
  Two ways are available to increase the rate of growth: raising the share of
current income allocated to investment, and  increasing current income it-
self. To increase current income, we must use existing resources of capital,
natural resources, and labor more intensively. More  intensive use of human
skills means the sacrifice of leisure. To the extent that increased labor use
is a reduction of joblessness, it is costless in all but the drain on natural
resources and the environment.  It is costless, that is, in foregone labor ser-
vices. Leisure, when freely chosen, is a form of income.  Idleness, on the
other  hand, is the deprivation of income; it is involuntary, not a matter of
choice, yields no income, and has no economic uses.
  If increased leisure is a human goal, in other words,  is one of the goods
and services  for which  we work, then it has a value and a cost.  The  value,
measured by the cost, is the foregone growth. Thus,  it is hard to make com-
parisons; as between a five per cent growth rate and  a three per cent growth
rate, who can say which is more  desirable? It is not even possible validly to
hold that in all countries and at all times, growth as measured by national in-
come statistics is better than no growth. National income statistics omit the
value of leisure, either as  income to  people or  as  the contribution it may
make to the total supply of goods and  services. The loss of leisure values in
order to achieve more rapid growth has to be counted among the costs of
growth. In short, growth costs leisure.
  Growth  not only costs leisure, it also costs consumption. To speed up
growth, and so to speed up gains in per capital  income,  takes investment;
and comsumption has to be given up in order to invest more. Saving and in-
vestment are  made possible through  abstinence  and work. By working
more, and thus getting more production and income, both more saving and
investment become possible. In short, the costs of growth are the leisure
and consumption given up to get it. Presumably, these are given upJn the
present to get more of them in the future.
  Another  cost  of  growth, borne by  owners  and,  to  some  extent,  by
managers,  is the cost of creative destruction of capital. New technology,
plants, products, and services may render existing capital obsolete, and
thus  impose  costs  in the form  of lower capital values on the  owners of
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 productive resources. This is true of capital equipment, from which there is
 in effect an involuntary disinvestment by owners (although this disinvest-
 ment is voluntary so far as society is concerned). Similarly, human beings
 sustain a loss in "human capital" when their knowledge and skills become
'•obsolete because of new knowledge and skills or because they  are sup-
 planted by capital equipment. Localities and broader geographical regions
 may  suffer substantially  the same  costs  in  that  their "capital," their
 specialized contributions,  is rendered obsolete,  supplanted  by  more
 productive resources elsewhere. These costs are unavoidable in a dynamic
 society. They could he held to  a minimum  in a static society,  if it were
 possible in the face,of presently available knowledge already extant but not
 used,  to maintaJn one.  But given the  pressure of existing,   unusued
 knowledge on existing institutions, it is doubtful that the social  organism
 could avoid the requirement of  change, either advance  or retrogression.
   Many displaced  resources  and  workers can be  reabsorbed  in  the
 economy, but only by incurring the costs of shifting from one use or place to
 another. Of course, in a dynamic market economy, these shifts are going on
 all the time.  Mobility costs are incurred in changing jobs, in changing oc-
 cupations, in moving from one area to another.  However, corresponding to
 these mobility costs are mobility benefits. In general, the costs are borne by
 .owners  of resources,  but typically  they  are shared  at large by society
 through the tax structure,  which  provides some offsets both for capital and
 labor costs. A sharing  of displacement costs also is accomplished through
 various  private  and government programs, such as company-provided
 moving costs, terminal pay, retraining programs and government-provided
 manpower programs.
   The extent to  which private corporations today  are charged for costs
 borne by business for social purposes  is not well known, but it is already
 substantial. The costs referred to are costs not directly related to production
 of output. They include: (1) Federal corporate income taxes, (2) state and
 local  corporate  income taxes,  (3) property taxes,  (4)  sales and gross
 receipts taxes, (5) miscellaneous state and local taxes, (6) occupational
 safety and health costs, (7) pollution abatement costs, (8) social security
 costs, (9) unemployment  and workmen's  compensation costs, (10) health
 insurance costs, (11) private pension costs, (12) group life insurance costs,
 (13)  temporary disability  costs.  This  list is  not inclusive, but these costs
 alone probably amount to a substantial share of gross corporate product,
 perhaps one-sixth or even  one-fifth.
   It should be obvious that, up to now, benefits have exceeded costs of
 growth,  as measured by rapidly growing  population and living  at  un-
 precedentedly higher standards  than ever before, both here and elsewhere
 in the world. The issue of the future is how to maintain the increase in the
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capacity of  the  economic process to provide whatever values have the
highest priorities in the particular society,  economic growth, while slowing
down the rate of growth in waste  and pollution.  Economic growth,  as
defined here,  is required both (1) to attain new values of high priority and
(2) to slow down the rise of waste and pollution.
The Economic Costs of Growth  Can Be Borne
   How to pay for the costs of change is the source of most discussion and
criticism of  growth. This is a highly important question because how we
decide  it will  have significant and  long-lasting effects on the allocation of
resources, on the efficiency of their use both in productivity and in entropic
terms, and therefore on the ultimate satisfactions derived from the economic
system. Valid economic calculations, relating  benefits to costs,  and thus
setting values, is the sine qua non of an effectively functioning economic
system.
   The  essential task of economic calculation is performed through the
market  system.  The  market system  prices both  output and input, Le.,
productive  resources of capital,  labor, and natural resources.  The system
provides a continuous  feedback of  the cost-benefit relationships. In the
market,  the costs of change and  growth are being paid all the time, in diz-
zying array. For example, the 21 million United  States citizens 65 years and
older have  adjusted to the telephone,  radio, television,  automobiles,
propeller-driven airplane, jet plane,  and the like.  They have  adjusted to
massive shifts in population that  since  1910 has  seen  the  Industrial
Crescent, from the New England mill towns through the states bordering the
Great Lakes to west  of Chicago  lose relative shares of prople  and jobs to
newer  regions. They  have adjusted to equally massive changes in taste,
fashion, and  behavior norms.
   Throughout this  period  of massive change  both the  political  and
economic systems have remained largely intact, but with a continuing trend
towards an increased role for government in the society and a trend toward
public and private provision of various forms of indemnity payments against
industrial risks of injury, illness,  and old age.  Poverty, although its official
definition has been  redefined higher several times, has  declined  from
perhaps two-thirds to under one-eighth of the population.
   As early as  1963, the business community had concluded,  as mentioned
earlier, that "ours are now largely the problems  of wealth and success," that
"the extremes of poverty, if not entirely eliminated, are no longer economic,
but  political  and  social  problems."  The  business  group  implicitly
acknowledges in this statement the principle that,  in a balanced way, the
costs associated with growth should be financed from the increment of in-
come derived from growth —the  growth dividend. The conclusion thus ap-
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pears strongly persuasive that the economic costs of growth and change
can be borne in our society. The issue remains that of how to assess these
costs.

Implementing  Change

  In general, the costs  of  change should  be  levied consistent with the
flexibility and  responsiveness of the market system. That the system is
responsive to new demands placed on it is  illustrated by  the "social
responsibility1' issue in business. The idea that corporate business respon-
sibilities should encompass social issues was fairly novel in 1966, but by
1973 was widely accepted by major business and banking leaders (8). As
Donald A. McNaughton, Chairman of Prudential, has pointed out,  in the
19th century the corporation concentrated on economic performance, and
in doing so, invented  new measurement systems for evaluating economic
performance. Today, given  the public demand  for quality of  life, the cor-
poration is called on to  develop new social measurement systems.

   Madden points out  that business needs incentives to  implement social
responsibility. Profitizing social  output  or finding ways to develop  social
demands  into new markets are suggested as possible incentives. Govern-
ment policies which could  provide incentive are also presented. He also
discusses the need for methods  of measuring social output so that it can be
properly, managed and directed, Corporate Social Audits are suggested as
a measurement device and a typical Social Audit is outlined.

The Profit Motive and Other Incentives
  The problem facing  the corporation is how to meet the various demands
for "socializing"  its output when  its operations are based on satisfying
private demands.  The corporation has always  had a  responsibility to
society, derived from its franchise from the state. In the nineteenth century,
its major goal was private  production of material goods and  services, to
raise material living standards. Today's emphasis on social  responsibility
makes of  the corporation  a social as well  as  an economic organization,
willly nilly, since corporations succeed by producing the values people
want Whether social-and-economic, or merely economic-as-in-the-past, the
corporation is motivated  and disciplined by the  market mechanism and the
profit motive  in a competitive economy.
  To meet new demands, as we  have seen, the corporation is re-examining
cost concepts. It is also  examining possibilities of turning social demands
into  new markets. This requires market research to find which of the new
demands a given corporation could meet, what it would cost, how it could
respond. Since social  responsibilities are "layered," the corporation  has to
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anticipate (1) which are legal requirements,  (2) which adcrrtional respon-
sibilities the public expects, (3) which are newly emerging social demands,
and  (4) which emerging demands prompt an activist role for business.
  Business has to "profitize" corporate social performance, A key aspect of
the  current corporate "social  responsibility"  movement is the lack of
balance between the business resources available and the new social com-
mitments  of  the  individual business firm. The before-tax  residual after
private costs average less than 10 per cent of sales.  For almost all cor-
porations  the current demands  on this residual, beginning with taxes, are
great. Federal income taxes took 44.7 per cent  of  the  profit residual in
1971, for example. Since fulfilling such social responsibilities as helping to
reduce pollution are costly, the  cost must be  borne somewhere else; Andr
to the extent that environmental control facilities require real resources for
their production,  producing them draws off those resources from  other
uses. This point was underscored at the  UN-sponsored Stockholm Con-
ference in June 1972 where the under-developed countries,  as well  as the
poor in the industralized countries, interpreted improving the quality of life
as increasing their material consumption.
  Since business cannot be expected to  perform its proper role  of  ef-
fectively using resources in production without a profit incentive,  business
must have a clear reading not only of consumer preferences but also of the
new ground rules of government  in meeting these demands. Government
has to set guidelines that allow business to privatize social costs; otherwise
corporations follow their individual interests rather than the social interest in
the absence  of guidelines. To the extent,  then, that  government sets the
rules to conform to social costs of private production,  corporations respond
consistently with consumer preference.
  Traditional  maximizing of profits is already too narrow, if it refuses to con-
cern itself with social  and ecological problems,  for today's large;  high-
visibility corporations.  Few alternatives are left: (1) the "stick" of  legal
requirements, (2) the "carrot" of government contracts  or subsidies or (3)
direct allocation. To make the "carrot" approach work, government, in prin-
ciple, has to subsidize enough to make rates of  return competitive with
other uses. But the risk factor can be high  in meeting new social respon-
sibilities, depending on consumer preference. Whether Congress would in-
demnify all the extra risk is not  so clear judging from recent  experience of
defense contractors  and their ownership shares in the market
  Direct allocation could take  various  forms. One  business  leader has
argued for establishing "minimal profit" subsidiaries to perform social serv-
ices. However, this solution is peripheral to the basic need for a change in
the strategy of economic development, to increase output (value) but slow
down the growth of waste and pollution. It should be clear by  now that such
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a new strategy is far more pervasive in its influence over the entire range of
corporate activity. Direct allocation could take a  compulsory form. A law
could require firms over a certain size to invest a specified percentage of
their assets to produce social output. Already, foundations are required to
disburse annually a given percentage of their assets in order to retain their
favorable tax status. One result  might be  more corporate  philanthropy
(currently tax deductible, within  limits). But here again, does this approach
go to the heart of the corporate role in society?
  No doubt, in any event the corporate-business relation is in for change,
as the distinction blurs between production of private and public goods.
Many demands on corporations for more social  responsibility are being
made by those who spearhead the corporate responsibilities movement: (1)
tough new regulation, (2) breakup of large corporations, (3) federal charters
for all  corporations, (4) public  directors for firms over  a given size, (5)
publicly elected  directors, (6) shareholder rights  enlarged to raise social
issues, (7) due  process rights for corporate employees who "blow the
whistle" on corporate practices, (8) personal criminal accountability of cor-
porate officials for some public offenses, such as pollution, (9) suspension
of advertising for convicted fraudulent advertisers, (10) a concept of "social
bankruptcy" for companies whose social  costs exceed its private and social
benefits, (11) public examination of  corporate tax returns, (12) required
recycling,  (13) active  manpower  policies  required for minorities,  (14)
required participation in solving urban problems, (15) required increase in
voluntary contributions.
  How can business operate as an instrument of public policy? One way is
through government standards of minimum performance, with  penalties for
failure to meet them. Another is  through  business-government consortia A
third is through  private production of public goods. The third approach
would require a radical change in national economic policy. The suggestion
is that the market-oriented government-business cooperation would be for
government to invent public  goods on the demand side (i.e.,  including the
creation of a market-type demand),  and for business to compete in in-
vesting and promoting public goods on the supply side. Could corporations
market new garbage disposal systems, new and economical  education TV
programs,  systems for delivering health care, systems for setting up public
parks, systems for renovation of slum housing,  or the like?
Corporate  Social Aduits to Measure Social Output
  The corporate  "social audit"  or  "social accounting" device represents
the beginning of a new measurement system, by which corporations can
examine what they are doing  and gauge their performance. The social audit
is intended as a tool to enable a corporation (1) to review its performance
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against  accepted social objectives, (2) determine the dollar value of its
commitment,  (3) evaluate to the  extent possible the "social  impact" of
management decisions, and (4) determine how much corporate social in-
volvement is  in the self interest of the corporation. Professor Raymond A.
Bauer of the  Harvard Graduate School of Business, a leader in the search
for a workable social  audit,  has concluded that the first three of the tour
steps of the audit set down above are now possible, but that the fourth'will
be extremely difficult accomplish.
  Although formal social audits have not yet been devised, some large cor-
porations today are keeping track  informally  of  their own social  per-
formance. About 60 per cent of the top 500 corporations included an ac-
count of some aspects of their social  performance in their 1972  annual
reports,  up from 35 per cent in 1971.
  A typical social audit might cover such aspects of corporate operations
as: (1), Employee Relations,  (2) Minority Enterprise Development,  (3) En-
vironmental Protection, (4) Contributions, (5) Community Involvement, (6)
Consumer Affairs and (7) Organizational  Reevaluation.
  To decide  how far to go in filling any gaps in its performance, the cor-
poration has to  make some kind  of cost/benefit  analysis,  but social
benefits  are  difficult  to   quantify.  Indeed,  a  calculus  of   quality
will be needed to  evaluate benefits, and  it may turn out that polling tech-
niques,  as Raymond  Bauer suggests,  are as valid measures as can be
developed. The business firm's effort to  "internalize" costs of social  im-
provement programs are, in effect, efforts to broaden the concept of what
once were largely private costs (excluding taxes).  Private costs  can be
reduced per unit of output. But environmental costs of business engaged in
physical  production rise per unit of output, since waste and pollution are an
exponential function of output. Thus, the market mechanism  will  inhibit
production of physical  commodities whose  environmental costs  are in-
ternalized.  It will do so by raising the relative price of such physical com-
modities relative to substitutes, thus enforcing more stringent economy in
their use and stimulating ways of "innovating around" them in consumer
uses.  From the viewpoint of social welfare,  the relative rise in price of
physical products heavy in their environmental drain is desirable. However,
consumers have  to strike an equilibrium price that  balances off their
demand for the product against its fuller costing.
  But social benefits are even more difficult to measure. Costs are at least
represented by outlays. As a bizarre example, infant mortality in the U.S. is
higher than in  Europe. However,  there are suggestions this results from
keeping weight gain down for pregnant women in the U.S. compared to
European practices. It  would be easy to infer, without knowledge of this
possibility,  that the social  benefit  lay elsewhere, perhaps in reform of the
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U.S. health care system, when all that would be needed is a change in pre-
natal care of easy accomplishment. Which of a given set of social benefits
should be pursued and to what extent—i.e.,  how much should  it be pur-
sued —before the added social benefit of competing  uses comes  to ex-
ceed the declining added benefit of pursuing the social benefit? In other
words, since  society's resources  are scarce, relative to all the  desirable
uses for them, as greater amounts of resources are devoted to environ-
mental protection, the added  social benefit of such spending will fall and
the added social  cost will rise, causing  the added benefit and the  added
cost to equalize at some spending level. That is to say, even if they are com-
pletely known, our social  desires  can  no more be met in total than our
private desires.

Implications For Economic Policy

  The implications of a global view for economic policy are many and are
just  emerging into  national  consciousness. The  need  for more  com-
prehensive long-range goals and planning which include a wider range of
social issues  and directly address means of emproving the quality of life is
generally recognized.
Attributes of Successful  Planning
  Commenting on societal goals, Cooper  discusses  the need for long-
range planning. He believes that there is general agreement about what the
goals of society  should  be.  However,  government and business  goal-
setting have been ineffective because the process has been isolated from
the planning  process. He concludes that planning  should be indicative,
rather than directive and  should  be integrative in that it should include
physical  and  social factors  as  well  as economic factors. He  briefly
discusses the possibility of organizing  a national planning staff  and sum-
marizes desirable features of such a staff.	
   Cooper says that, to be something more, and more useful, than a set of
lofty platitudes, societal goals must be thoughtfully defined and periodically
reviewed. Collective introspection precedent to the development of goals is
rare in our own society, and indeed in most others. To the extent national or
institutional goals are formulated,  they tend to take the form of short-term,
specific, quantiatively-expressed performance targets.  As a consequence,
"progress" or "growth" has  tended to  be  characterized, over the  longer
term, by  lurches and  zig-zagging  toward  unarticulated  or viscerally-
determined objectives. But one senses that if societal  yearnings could be
articulated in terms of desired goals, the short-term targets of government
agencies, corporations and labor unions  might turn out to be irrelevant if not
altogether wrong.
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  Whatever the approach used, there seems to be fairly wide agreement on
the priority of objectives. The problem arises when one moves from goal-
setting to implementation.  A Brookings discussion of the 1973 Federal
Budget puts  the point well: "There is widespread consensus ... that in-
creasing equality of opportunity, improving the quality of public  services,
and resucing the environment are, and should be, important concerns of the
federal government. There  is far less consensus, however, on how these
objectives should be accomplished or how success should be identified
and measured" (9).
  An  Administration official also alluded to the gap between  aspirations
and implementation in testimony to Congress: "It is the conviction of  this
Administration that  public policies  for balanced and orderly growth will be
more  effective than the mechanisms through which they are shaped and
carried out." (10).
  The ambitious efforts at national goal-setting over the past decade turned
out to have little practical significance because they were removed from the
planning process. Goal setting is but a necessary prelude to the major task
of laying out the routes which will permit  policy makers  to have a high
degree of confidence that the goals can be achieved.  Thus if growth is to
serve identified  ends and  if it is  to proceed in cognizance of resource
availabilities,  environmental  considerations and  societal needs  and
aspirations, that is, if growth is to be economically and socially sustainable,
planning by governments and large quasi-public and private institutions is
an essential  element for success.
  "Policy planning", whether undertaken  in great departments of  the
Executive Branch of government or in  large corporations has not  been
distinguished by stunning success. There are many reasons for this which
may have little to do with the validity of the planning  process, itself. The
most  expeditious road  to  career  advancement, for example,  is through
operating rather than planning elements of an organization; few Cabinet
members or corporation presidents are plucked from the ranks of planning
staffs. Few Cabinet members or corporation presidents tend to pay much
more  than lip-service to the results of elaborate policy planning studies.
  But there is more to the story than simply the bureaucratic handicaps or
top-side  neglect under which planners typically ply their trade. There  are
some fundamental  disabilities of methodology that  inhibit the  use of  the
planning process as a managerial tool. Progress is being made in develop-
ing more effective planning techniques, but for many years ahead, at least,
we will have to rely on the  blunt  instruments at hand. This means that em-
phasis must be placed on indicative rather than directive planning, on iden-
tifying  and then  analyzing  alternative  courses of action, rather than, with
arrogance unbecoming the start of the art, laying down policy prescriptions.
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  The analysis of policy alternatives need not be the only responsibility or
 contribution of planners to the process of translating goals into programs.
 Along the analytical path critical decision points can be identified, flagged
 and gamed; "if it is decided to do A, consequences W and X will follow; if
 Course B is selected, consequences Y and Z will have to be anticipated."
  Recognizing, then, that by  "planning"  we are talking  about indicative
 planning,  a policy  of sustained growth calls for long-term planning  un-
 dertaken at a high enough echelon to  permit direct access to senior
 decision makers. Such  a planning process would  involve considerations
 longer than the  annual  budget cycle,  longer than  the four year terms of
 Presidents or coporate executives.  It goes  well beyond projecting produc-
 tion  schedules or extrapolating sales. The process, in  short,  involves a
 scale of time measured in decades rather than years. This kind of planning
 is not being done in the United States, either by government agencies or in
 the private sector.
  Planning for sustainable growth must also be integrative in the sense that
 it reflects physical and social as well as economic considerations. Basic to
 this broad and humanistic approach is a conversion by both planners and
 policy-makers from worship of the false god of  Gross National Product to
 other, or at least modified, measures of progress. In short,  a society must be
 able to  judge how  effectively it is  performing as well as how much it is
 producing.
  No planning function, whether in or out of government, can be effective
 unless rt is meshed closely with the decision-making process and decision-
 makers, themselves. Nor can  effective planning be done unless  planners
 are able to call on  the resources of their  colleagues in the operating and
 research elements of their organizations. The "boys-in-the-back-room" and
 "the ivory tower" syndromes thus fall far short of describing the nature of
 the planning process envisaged here —within either the national  govern-
 ment or large corporations.
  Some governments have already taken steps to develop a long term plan-
 ning function.  In France, the Netherlands  and Japan, for exampJe, small,
 multf-disciplinary staffs of planners are attached  to the Offices of the Prime
 Ministers (11).  In each case  the  staffs endeavor to integrate economic,
 technological and social  planning  and,  in each case,  too, the planning
 period extends well into the 1980's (12).
  It would be beyond the scope of this paper and  beyond the frontiers of
 current thinking to try, at this point, to define the  precise charter, form, and
 organization structure of  a  national  planning  staff  concerned with
 sustainable  growth.  But  there are a few  points worth  noting. We have
"already emphasized the need for a long-term frame of reference, the need
 to cut across intellectual disciplines and  departmental areas  of  respon-
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 sibility and the need for planners to operate from a real-world perspective.
 The basic approach, as we have observed, should be indicative rather than
 prescriptive,  both in terms of sharpening the choices rather than spelling
 out  specific  goals and of analyzing  alternative policy options rather than
 serving up a set of concrete recommendations. A national planning staff
 should  also  engage in, or have direct access to, the assessment of the
 long-range social, environmental and economic effects of the applications
 of new high-technology. Finally, one would like to think that a national plan-
 ning staff would  act and react  substantively with the long-range planning
 going on in government departments, other governments, the large national
 and multi-national corporations, and private research organizations.
 Features off a Government —Business Growth Policy	
   Madden states that action consistent with the new concepts of economics
 and the global view and traditional  policy and  economics is needed to
 provide a humane world  in which mankind can achieve short-range goals
 consistent with long-range survival and also achieve a rising quality of life.
 People's  perceptions  must be adapted  to  new  possibilities of wealth
 creation which  include  not only physical  goods but  new  social and
 economic values. New knowledge of the physical and social sciences must
 be applied move intensively and organized more effectively.  Government
 and business must pay more attention to the  changing values of people.
 The new economic growth strategy for business means developing a func-
 tional,  social performance-oriented mode of  marketing. He suggests the
 following as principal elements  required for a comprehensive government-
 business growth  policy to provide these features.

  It might be desirable for government to create new policy in support of
the values of environmental  enhancement, research in science, the  com-
munication  of science,   energy, social  measurement  and analysis,
education, and economic  policy.
  In all these areas —since all are  related to concern with the environ-
ment —major tasks of policy re-examination consistent with the new world
view are urgently needed. It is not so much a question of large expenditures
as it is the  development  of new rules of the game that reflect  new un-
derstanding of the growth process of the future.
  The proposal bristles with implications that cannot all be drawn out here.
More progress is needed  now in monitoring world weather, world environ-
ment, study of farm practices, and a host of related .topics, looking towards
world-wide management of the world environmental balance. Such basic in-
vestment, well-financed, will generate unpredictable new sources of wealth,
both public  and  private.  It should  be  a  goal to  create  world-wide,
cooperative environmental measurement and  management.
  The time is at  hand to re-think science and technology policy, not  in
relation mainly to experiments in utilization, but  in efforts to unify science,  to
communicate it widely,  to  apply methods, not technology, in a broad sweep
to social affairs. Multi-media scientific education —that is, superb and en-
tertaining education —needs financing more,  far more, than  yet  another
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fragmented and  unrelated scholastic exercise in scientific specialization.
Dartmouth president John Kemeny's suggested  national, computer-based
reference library should be financed now. At the expense of some old or in
effective government program.
  Instead of more government education aid to existing universities, some
small funding might be provided to a corporation, balanced  in make-up,
which saw itself  as  a nation-wide, open, TV university, modelled after the
British  Open University. Courses should  not  be  allowed that  are not
multimedia productions.
  At some point soon, U.S. energy policy will have to face up to the im-
plications that lie in the plentiful supply of hydrogen, the fact that a few day's
supply of energy from the sun equals all the stored energy on earth, and the
present positive feed-back between the rise in output and the rise in energy
use. Abstractly, the issue would seem to be more GNP (or human value)
with less expenditure,  but more useful expenditure,  of energy.  At least,
such an inference appears to follow from the thesis presented  by Limits To
Growth.
  Social measurement and analysis now languishes partly because of lack
of fresh or original study of U.S.  statistical  systems,  now  mainly two-
dimensional even in economics,  where measures  of  wealth are sadly
lacking. Fresh initiatives in statistical design suited to computers,  aimed at
systems viewpoints, holistically conceived, are lacking. Meanwhile, fears of
"data banks" divert interest and confuse purposes, and existing systems of
statistics  receive patchwork attention.
  Education is on the  verge of an explosion and of large cost reduction
through a radical change in the organization of  instruction brought on by
technology. How is  it that Western Civilization's great artists were financed
to communicate  the symbolism  of Biblical creation to generations, while
only Time-Life Science books have dared to  portray the creation of the
universe in pictures? The pursuit of knowledge is corrupted by comparison
to the marvels of fused art-and-knowledge creations lying in every cranny of
the society, to  become  entertainment,  whether as  drama  or  as  epic
narrative, or whatever,  combined with education.
  Education is on the verge of an explosion also through informal intimacy
of discourse by ad hoc groups springing up everywhere, bored by the for-
mal trappings of  instruction, but effective in their own fields and yearning for
personal  conversation, involvement,  enterprise,  and creation. These are
people at home in a nation that is only five hours wide and three hours long;
people who are impatient with papers  and footnotes, appalled by our
society's lack of coherence and coordination, but determined to realize our
potentials.
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  economic  policy stands at a  similar threshold,  ready for  intelligent
economic similation and modeling, development of policy analysis, testing
of policy changes by simulation and reform of institutions.
  All these changes implicit in the new world view represent a new initiative
for adaptation of  our culture that  are breathtaking, but of  course require,
above  all,  a  new orientation  of thought in policy making far more than
massive investment in technology. The task lying  before our society is that
of re-organizing thought processes, images, language, and perception far
more than  the creation of programs or "solutions" to "social problems."
  Madden outlines some specific  elements of economic policy for govern-
ment and business which he believes  should be implemented.

  1.  Creation of Social Markets.  Government should set new priorities to
create  social  markets for private  business operation by  massive aban-
donment of our dated and ineffective social welfare and industry—subsidy
programs.  The missing  link in revenue sharing  is the creation of social
markets for business  corporations.
  2.  Urban Policy. Government could initiate broad measures to achieve
governance of urban regions,  such as a national network combining urban-
observatory development banks with a federal-private development bank at
the center, in order to analyze and finance urban innovation.
  The  missing link in revenue sharing is access  to knowledge. As men-
tioned  above,  the bringing to  bear on economic processes of more useful
knowledge is a cultural  blockbuster of an  idea,  bristling with design im-
plications.  Even at risk of being tiresome,  we don't know anything,  as a
people, about what is happening in our urban regions.  Most of us don't
even know we live in urban regions, except intuitively, since we go to great
lengths, using phrases like "urban," "rural," "rural-nonfarm," and "central-
city", "suburb," and the like, to obscure our perceptions. How can we think
clearly about governing  urban regions, not knowing we live  in them? We
don't even have visual TV or newspaper symbols, like stylized maps, to
create  any unity of feeling among people in these regions. They have to
apologize for saying they live  in "the New York area" when they really live
in, say, Summit, New Jersey. And certainly we  have no visual system of
orienting people easily to parts of a metropolitan area. All the buses go to
some unknown stopping point like "Kings Park" or "Floating  Hill," the
name of  a real estate development.
  At the  next level  of confusion, we  lack any regular means of com-
munication about  what is happening in our urban regions. Our newscasters
and journalists appear never  to have thought of urban regions, except for
the weather forecaster. Planning board decisions come after murder, rape,
dope, police  line-ups, and sports in importance.  It is not easy for the res
publica —the public thing —to escape from such a melange with anything
much intact.

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  But still another level exists, where patterns and configurations of change
move with logic, order, and even beauty across the urban scene, as well as
patterns filled with ominous foreboding. Nobody ever hears about these ex-
cept specialists of one sort or another, who seldom talk together.
  The idea of bringing useful knowledge to bear in public understanding of
what is happening in cities has obviously got a far, far lower priority of value
than weather forecasting. If  you think about it,  weather forecasting  is
organized,  scientific  observation,  arranged  in  a system,  employing
specialists  financed  both by  government and  business,  to give us
knowledge about the weather. What is the  analogy for  urban change and
development? The idea seems to escape, somehow, through the cracks of
confusion  in our ability to imagine.
  3. Environmentally—Sensitive Economic  Policy. Government would re-
structure economic policy consistent with environmental  and policy science
insights, would  revise incentives in order to stimulate the creation of en-
tropy-retarding new wealth, and would remove restrictions to competition
that are widespread in law and regulation.
  Here again, the proposal  is  intended to  convey implications of the in-
tellectual framework portrayed throughout the above. The task is an enor-
mous exercise in fresh thinking. One example illustrates this point, perhaps
apocryphally. A house in Phoenix, having a 20-foot  picture window facing
the sun, keeps a 20-foot Venetian blind closed except at night. But, it is so
hard to raise, the owner installs a motor. The appraiser increases the value
of the house $1,000 because of the blind and the motor. Another house,
with ferns and an overhanging  eave and  high ceilings  is valued less —it
has no motor and perhaps no Venetian blind.
  4. Recommendations for New Business Policy
  a. Re-organize marketing to create holistic, performance-oriented  sup-
plies of services.
  b.  Re-define balance sheet concepts.
  c. Engineer holistic product systems to achieve product miniaturization,
zero defect  reliability, greater durability.
  d. Create new marketing concepts of private production of public goods.
  c.  Exploit marketing  opportunities  in   "new  health"—invisible
wealth —of holistic community planning, beauty, education, cultural growth,
and health improvement.
  f.  Create new communications and advertising  strategy consistent with
knowledge as a form of wealth.
  g. Create new management attuned to new wealth.
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                  NOTES FOR CHAPTER 6

 1. Schumpter, J.S., "Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy", 3rd edition,
   New York, Harper and Bros., 1950, Chapter VII.
 2. Quoted in Introduction to The "Regulated Consumer," by Mary Bennett
   Peterson  Nash Publishing Company,  Los Angeles, 1971.
 3. Meadows, et al, "The Limits to Growth", A Potomac Associates Book,
   New York, Universe Books,  1972.
 4. Drucker,  P., "Landmarks of Tomorrow," New York, Harper and Row,
   1959.
 5. Georgescu-Roeger, N., "The Entropy Law and the Economic Process",
   Harvard University Press,  Cambridge, Mass., 1971.
 6. See "Social Measurement", American Institute of Certified Public Ac-
   countants, New York, 1972.
 7. See "The Promise of Growth", Chamber of Commerce of the United
   States, Washington, D.C.,  1963.
 8. See "The Corporation  in Transition," Chamber of Commerce of the
   United States, Washington, D.C., 1973.
 9. Setting National Priorites—1973 Budget", Charles  Schultze,  Ed.,
   Brookings Institution, 1972.
10. "National  Growth Policy", Hearings  before the Subcommittee  on
   Housing  of the  Committee on Banking  and Currency,  house of
   Representatives, 92nd  Congress, June 6 and  7, 1972—Part I.
11. In France, The Commissariat General  du Plan, in the Netherlands, the
   Central Planning Office, in Japan, The Director-General for Economic
   Planning.
12. A good  example of the  long-term,  wide-ranging, inter-disciplinary
   nature of French planning is "1935.  La France  Face au Choc  du
   Futur," Commissariat General du Plan, Librairie Arnaud Colin, Paris,
   1972. Foreword.
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APPENDIX

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.Appendix
   Following the successful completion of the QOL symposium in August of
 1972, ESD was approached by one of the invited attendees—Anton Sch-
 malz, then engaged as a general  consultant on the  Federal Assistance
 Review Program of the Office of Management and Budget—who suggested
 ESD should follow up on the Airlie QOL symposium with mini-regional ver-
 sions throughout the country. After discussing areas of mutual interest, ESD
 hired Mr. Schmalz as a staff consultant to pursue the alternative futures
 aspects of the intended environmental issues and social sciences book for
 the Division. As explained elsewhere, the  original intent was to  institute a
 dialogue  between government officials and invited participants.
   The original  symposium outline,  as developed by Anton Schmalz with
 Peter House, Philip Patterson, Martin Redding and John Gerba of the ESD
 staff,  is reproduced on the following pages. The outline  includes topics
 assigned  to the contributing authors and questions which each author was
 asked to  address within his or her  research  theme.
                       Research Symposium
         Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality

     In keeping with the policy of the Office of Research and Monitoring to
 encourage research in all areas relevant to the charter of this Agency, the
 Environmental  Studies Division plans to conduct a research symposium ad-
 dressing "Alternative Futures and Environmental  Quality." The symposium
 will be held in Room 1112, Building 2, Crystal Mall, Arlington, Virginia,
 March 7 and 8,  1973.
     Symposium  sessions will explore alternative future effects on the en-
 vironment of the way in which three pivotal clusters of issues are handled in
 the immediate future. The  issue clusters are:

    I.The nature of the environmental crisis.
   2. Zero population growth and environmental  quality.
   3. Implications of alternative  growth policies on  environmental quality.

     The purpose of the symposium is to pursue a comprehensive approach
 for assessing future research needs and  priorities and  to delineate con-
 siderations for policy and program planning in each of the issue categories.
 A  detailed explanation and outline of the symposium is enclosed.
                                 229

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                  Research Symposium of the
                 Environmental Studies Division
                           Focusing on
         Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality

                        March 7 and  8, 1973
                       Room 1112, Building  2
                            Crystal Mall
                         Arlington, Virginia

    Environmental Quality is both an immediate and a long-term issue with
many interdependent options,  benefits,  and  risks.  The most relevant
policies and programs will derive from a periodic reassessment of the im-
plications of  evolving issues  on environmental quality.  In this spirit the
proposed symposium is intended to maximize the benefits from both new
knowledge and long  experience.
    The  Environmental Studies  Division,  Office  of  Research and
Monitoring, of the Environmental Protection Agency plans to bring diverse
viewpoints together in a research symposium devoted to a reassessment of
three  major issue areas conditioning environmental quality.
    The EPA research symposium is intended to provide a current focus on
comprehensive identification of options  and alternative approaches to the
three  issue areas as  they relate to environmental quality.
    An  average of six participants will be commissioned to prepare papers
in each  subject area.  The symposium will be interdisciplinary to provide for
the fullest exposure and interaction of viewpoints. Participants will attend all
three  sessions to ensure maximum involvement in, and exposure to, the
three  areas considered at the symposium. Papers will be published and
distributed nationally. A  discussion session of the symposium  will  be
devoted to each of the three issue areas. These three areas  are:

  1. The Nature of the Environmental Crisis

    Diverse views exist regarding the possibility of an  imbalance between
human institutions and the ecology of the biosphere. General societal sup-
port of an ethic to care for the environment may be substantially affected by
perceptions of the reality and urgency of a crisis. What  are the  implications
for environmental quality?

  2. Zero Population  Growth and Environmental Quality
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    ZPG has  been proposed as a national and world goal. Current U.S.
statistics indicate  ZPG fertility rates. What are the implications for  en-
vironmental quality?

  3. Implications of Alternative Growth Policies

    Growth, equilibrium, dispersion of population  and industry,  and  the
elimination of  pollution all  have their costs. The implications of growth in
terms of dollars, as well as in terms of environmental quality, social costs
and the overall quality of  life, need  continuous evaluation.

    Providing for environmental  quality  requires  a comprehensive,   in-
terdisciplinary and long-range approach on the part of people at all  levels of
government and throughout the private sector.
    Principal objectives of the EPA Research Symposium are to delineate:
(1) the issues; (2) feasible approaches and incentives for dealing with them;
(3) research needed and  rationales for prioritizing these needs;  and (4)
specific attitudes,  costs,  and  other considerations for  implementing
changes  in  government  and  private sector  institutions. These con-
siderations will be presented from the point of view  of decision-makers in-
volved in  policy formulation.
    At a minimum, the papers and discussions in each of the  three issue
areas will address the immediate and long-term considerations in seven
categories of questions for each issue:

   1. Is there really a  problem? What is  it? Who says? Why? Have  the
    problem and  associated  issues been overstated or underestimated?
  2. How  can we  best distinguish between cause and effect?
  3. What are the principal factors conditioning solutions to the problem in
    terms of technical, economic, and social behavior?
  4. What can and/or should be done to ensure environmentally sensitive
    comprehensive  planning  and  decision  making?  What  incentives,
    regulations  or other policies can help:

    a political officials;
    b. managers and staffs at all  levels of government;
    c. managers and staffs in specific institutions,  industries
       and/or  geographic regions; and
    d. segments of the general public?

  5. What are the considerations for  implementing proposed new policies?
    What are some feasible  strategies?
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   6. Is there any urgency? What are the realistic time considerations for im-
     plementing proposed policies?
   7. Who  should  participate i.n the  planning,   implementation,  and
     monitoring or evaluation  phases of the policy  process? Who can or
     should be responsible?

     Environmental issues are  inextricably involved with individual or group
 perceptions of needs, frustrations, satisfactions, etc. These perceptions
 condition the  concepts of relative priorities and feasibility as well as  the
 credibility of policies^ and, therefore, the degree of support or cooperation
 forthcoming.
     An outline, of the three issue-oriented sessions follows. In addition to a
 consideration  of the  seven categories of questions discussed above,  each
 participant will address the representative questions listed for the session
 in which he is a principal.


                             Session I
                    EPA Research Symposium
                           Focused on
         Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
            The Nature of  the Environmental Crisis
A. Is there an environmental crisis?

   1. What are its  characteristics?
    a. Immediate.
    b. Long-term.
  2. New Perspectives on balancing human ecology and the ecology of the
    biosphere.
  3. What do the  current trends show for pollution control?
  4. Approaches to continue monitoring and assessment.

B. Pros and  Cons regarding an environmental crisis.

  1. Myths and  reality of pollution.
  2. Viability and  limitations of the biosphere.
  3. Lessons learned from  the implementation of environmental policies.
                                 .232

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C. One approach to averting environmental crisis.

  I.The carrying capacity concept (the ecosystem).
  2. Resource viability and limitations.
  3. Comprehensive government-private sector growth policy.
  4. Lessons learned in balancing economic and population growth.

D. Cultural myths and  realities of  problem solving.

  1. Human  perceptions  of cause and effect relationships—the disease
    model, ego consciousness, and  other barriers to objective thinking.
  2. Pervasive conditioning factors on problem definition and  decision
    making.

E. Where do we go from here?

  1. Highlight concepts of environmental  management.
  2. How  do/can  we  achieve the technical,  economic,  and  behavioral
    modifications to ensure an environmental ethic throughout our society?

Representative Questions

  1. To what extent is there a convergence of the environmental imperative
    and the environmental ethic?
  2. Has the problem been exaggerated? Has the environmental imperative
    been  correctly stated  or  overstated? What are realistic standards,
    measures and policies to ensure nature's  balance?
  3. To  what extent are  flora, fauna  and ecosystems  really  threatened
    today? Is there a long-term hazard? What is our best knowledge of time
    and tolerance  considerations?
  4. Do we  know enough to validate the imperative of major technical,
    economic or behavioral change in our society?
  5. What are the social, psychological, economic and political implications
    of an  environmental ethic?
  6. What  would be the  time and other major considerations  for  im-
    plementing  the  kinds  of   technical,  economic  and  behavioral
    modifications recommended  by each participant?
                                233

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                            Session  II
                   EPA  Research  Symposium
                           Focusing  on
         Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
      Zero Population Growth  and  Environmental Quality
A. What are the implications of zero population growth?

  1. Implications of  needs/values/benefits and thresholds  of behavior on
    ZPG and other  population alternatives.
  2. Social pathology—population density and distribution.
  3. Environmental  design  for optimum group size  and to  balance
    gratification and frustration.
  4. Federal government activities to preserve and improve environmental
    quality.

B. Considerations  underlying development of environmental policy.

  1. Settings.
  2. Awareness.
  3. Social roles,  pathology, density, and distribution.
  4. Policy implications.

C. Resource and environmental consequences of population growth in the
    U.S.

  1. Projections and trends  in long-range perspective.
  2. How population affects resources and the environment:
    a. Land use.
    b. Pollution.
    c. Mobility.
  3. Resource requirements and  pollution levels.
  4. Ecological perspectives.

D. Public and private policy interactions and implications of
  population policy.

  1. Needs/problem identification and  assessment.
  2. Mechanisms  for policy  formulation and  analysis.
    a. Federal.
    b. Regional.
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    c. State.
    d. Local.
  3. Mechanisms for implementing  policy.
    a. Incentives.
        (1) Financial, taxes, etc.
        (2) Legal.
        (3) Other.
    b. Communication.
    c. Education.
  4. Barriers, constraints and options.
    a. Resources.
    b. Institutions.

E. What  is the effect of ZPG on  growth policies?

  1. Goals, objectives and  comprehensive  plans.
    a. Individual and societal.
    b. Political: legislative and executive.
    c. Government operations.
    d. Other institutions.
  2. Strategies for social and economic development planning.
    a. Incentives.
    b. Alternatives.
    c. Communications.
    d. Education.

Representative Questions

  1. What are the traditional conditioning factors which must be considered
    in any population policy?
  2. How can the needs,  values and beliefs of people be effectively deter-
    mined? Is an index of these perceptions feasible? Could such an index
    objectively reflect the viewpoints of people in their several societal
    roles of:
    a. Political office holders responsible for policy,  program and fiscal
    legislation?
    b. Career government  employees  who are  responsible for  im-
    plementing policy and ensuring the effectiveness of delivery systems?
    c. Specific  citizen  groups or  interest  constituencies  potentially  im-
    pacted by proposed or ongoing policies?
  3. Are changing value systems  and life styles  significantly  affecting
    reproduction among their adherents?  What are the  secondary  im-
                                235

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    plications of these life styles on concepts of societal roles and respon-
    sibility?
  4. What are the social psychological, economic and political implications
    of a U.S. population  ethic?
                            Session III
                   EPA  Research Symposium
                           Focusing on
        Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
          Implications of Alternative  Growth Policies
A. Social and productivity costs and benefits of growth.

  1. Rethink concepts of productivity, GNP, national income accounts, and
    other economic measures.
    a. Productivity.
    b. Social accounting.
  2. Diverse perceptions of needs and  urgency.
  3. Law and regulation, stabilization programs, etc.
  4. Incentives.
  5. Who  pays and how?  What are the second  order costs/benefits or
    frustrations,  long term good will, etc?
  6. Shifts in the employment base:
    a. Decrease in agriculture and manufacturing.
    b. Increase in knowledge and service  industries.
  7. Expanded concepts of gross  national  product and productivity.

B. Implications of sustainable  growth.

  1. Growth  vs. equilibrium.
  2. Delineate the perceived limits and  implications of economic growth.
  3. Define sustainable growth.
  4. What kinds of growth can a nation or region, or the world as a whole,
    sustain to achieve maximum economic and social benefits and minimal
    disadvantages?
  5. What kinds  of  individual and  institutional  adjustments  may  be
    required?
  6. Alternative patterns and goals of growth.
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G.International  implications of growth policy.

  1.:New  concepts-of wealth  and  ownership correlated with resource
    utilization/consumption  product  quality, production,  employment and
    quality of life.
  2. Rental vs.  purchase of goods.
  3. Expanded  concepts of ownership.
  4. Recycling vs. new materials.

D. Who pays for change and how?

  1. Rethink concepts of time,  priorities,  responsibility,  incentives, risks,
    rewards for business as a citizen.
  2. Rethink concepts of costs, profits, and return on investment in a longer
    time frame and including intangibles such as goodwill.
  3. Incentives:
    a. Financial, tax, etc.
    b. Legal.
    c. Goodwill.
    d. Other.
  4. Considerations for  a  comprehensive  government-business  growth
    policy.

E. How can/do  we achieve an equitable, comprehensive national
  growth  policy?

  1. Goals, objectives and comprehensive plans:
    a. Individual and  societal perceptions of needs, values,
      frustrations, satisfactions; etc.
    b. Political:  legislative  and  executive.
    c. Government operations.
    d. Academic institutions.
    e. Profit institutions.
  2. Strategies:
    a. Incentives.
    b. Alternatives.
    c. Communications.
    d. Education.
  3. Priorities.
  4. Comprehensive  government-private  sector  growth  and  priority
    policies:
    a. Federal.
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    b. Regional.
    c. State.
    d. Local.
  5. Major considerations for developing and implementing a viable and
    comprehensive growth policy.

Representative Questions

  1. Is comprehensive policy and program planning possible when it in-
    volves various levels of government, academic and profit institutions?
  2. Can the long term cost/benefits and  other consequences of growth
    policy be identified?
  3. Who should pay for changes to achieve environmental quality stan-
    dards? How?
  4. Is it imperative to have  a national  growth policy?
  5. How can regional and local growth policies be effectively integrated?
  6. Is  is possible  to  establish  or require a consistent growth  ethic
    throughout our society?  How?
  7. What are the social, psychological, economic and political implications
    of a U.S. and a world growth imperative and  ethic?
                     Research  Symposium
        Alternative Futures and  Environmental Quality

                       March 7 and 8,  1973
                      Conference Room 1112
                       Crystal Mall, Bldg. 2
                        Arlington,  Virginia
SESSION I—THE NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

IS THERE AN ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS?
    Dr.  Beatrice Willard
    Member,  Council on Environmental Quality

PROS AND CONS REGARDING AN ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
    Dr.  Donald  A. Spencer
    National Agricultural Chemicals Association
                              238

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ONE APPROACH TO AVERTING ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES
   Eugene K. Peterson
   Urban and Rural Land Committee, Pacific Northwest River Basin
     Commission

CULTURAL MYTHS AND REALITIES OF PROBLEM SOLVING
   Dr. Murray Bowen
   Georgetown University

WHERE DO WE GO  FROM HERE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY?
   Dr. Garret Hardin
   University of California

SESSION  II—ZERO  POPULATION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF ZERO POPULATION GROWTH
   Dr. S. Fred Singer
   University of Virginia

CONSIDERATIONS UNDERLYING DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICY
   Dr. John  B. Calhoun
   National Institute of Mental Health

RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION
GROWTH  IN THE U.S.
   Ron Ridker
   Resources for the Future

PUBLIC AND PRIVATE POLICY INTERACTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
OF POPULATION POLICY
   Graham Molitor
   General Mills, Inc.

IMPLICATIONS OF ZPG ON GROWTH POLICIES
   Dr. Alex Christakis
   Center for Contemporary Problems
                           239

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SESSION III—IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE GROWTH POLICIES

SOCIAL AND PRODUCTIVITY COSTS AND BENEFITS OF
GROWTH POLICIES
    Dr. Michael H. Moskow
    Department of Labor

IMPLICATIONS OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
    Chester Cooper
    Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF GROWTH POLICY
    Dr. Lincoln Gordon
    Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

WHO PAYS FOR CHANGE AND HOW?
    Dr. Carl Madden
    U.S. Chamber of Commerce

HOW CAN/DO WE ACHIEVE AN EQUITABLE,  COMPREHENSIVE
NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY?
    Dr. George Kozmetsky
    University of Texas
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