fiLTGRnflTIVE
UTURG/ ROD
OUflLITY
INVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AGENCY
sarch and Development
\
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WORKING PAPERS IN
ALTERnATIVE
UTURG/ ROD
RonmeniflL
OUfiLITY
AUGUST 1973
REVISED
NOVEMBER 1973
NVIRONMENTAL ,
'RGTECTION I
AGENCY '
•arch and Development
>n Environmental Research Center
(ntal Studies Division
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This report has been reviewed .by the Office of
Research and Development, EPA, and approved for
publication. Approval does not'signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies
of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of trade names or commercial products con-
stitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.O. 20402 - Price $I.8S
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FOREWORD
The quality of the environment is now a major policy issue for govern-
ment and industry officials. Policy-makers also find an emerging quality of
life ethic among the public resulting in ever more persistent articulation of a
desire for a higher standard of living, more freedom of choice, more leisure
and more personal fulfillment.
The overriding concern for the environment arises from the in-
creasingly visible signs of air pollution, water pollution, waste accumulation,
noise pollution and contamination by toxic substances resulting from how
we do things today. There is often great pressure for short-range, im-
mediate solutions to problems. Short-term plans and the means employed
to achieve these objectives are sometimes implemented without adequate
consideration for the possible long range environmental degradation which
may result.
What is needed, then, to complement immediate action programs is a
policy assessment process involving analysis of long-range pitfalls and
potentials.
For example, the Bureau of the Census recently reported that the
population growth rate in the United States has been decreasing to the
point which will eventually produce zero population growth. Does this mean
that the population will not reach the higher numbers forecast only a short
time ago? Does it mean that contingency planning being done today which
is sensitive to population fluctuations will require some modification?
Would, for instance, a smaller population be expected to produce less
jpollution and solid wastes? Demographers tell us that family units having:
fewer children, or children at a later time in life, which is indicative cf zero
population growth, results in a greater number of women willing and able to:
work. The first order effect of zero population growth, they tell us, is ex-
pected to be a greater number of people in the work force. Does the com-
bination of greater business capacity and higher per capita income,
produced by this eventuality, produce a greater pollution and solid waste
problem than would initially be expected from a declining population
growth rate?
; When faced with these questions, the policy-maker finds limited infor-
mation available. The more rhetorical and crisis oriented information tends
to be most available and tends to pervade the consciousness of the public
• and of public officials. Thus, there appears to be a need for a forum in which
the ramifications of long-term viewpoints can be discussed. We need to
establish a mechanism for continuing dialogue between policy-makers and
ecologists, land-use planners, economists, systems analysts, and human
'. behaviorists of all persuasions.
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What, then, are the full policy implications of zero population growth; of
the newly evolving environmental ethic; of new economic concepts which
span from rental economics to expanded ownership patterns?
It was in this spirit that the Environmental Studies Division, Washington
Environmental Research Center, Office of Research and Development in-
vited a number of experts to present their views on alternative futures, the
environment and the quality of life. Each was asked to prepare comments in
one of the three following research themes: The Nature of the Environmental
Crisis, Zero Population Growth and the Environment and Implications of
Alternative Growth Policies on Environmental Quality. The invited authors
are listed following this foreword. The Topic area assigned each author,
which became titles of papers produced for possible presentation at a sym-
posium is reproduced in the appendix.
As initially planned , it was thought that this research project would
utilize a symposium as the vehicle to elicit comment and response from a
representative cross-section of governmental officials having decision-
making responsibilities affecting the future. However, it soon became ap-
parent that the complex web of ideas being generated within any one of the
three theme areas was too much for one group of individuals at one sitting.
Consequently, it was thought that a more appropriate tactic would be to
produce this volume expressive of the kind of dialogue needed to assist
policy-makers develop comprehensive perspectives for assessing future
needs and priorities on a continuing basis.
Stanley M. Greenfield
Assistant Administrator
for Research and Development, EPA,
August 1973
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PREFACE
Early in the organization of the Environmental Studies Division (ESD), a
branch was formed to conduct research of an exploratory nature. This
Branch had as its objective:
"To extend the time-horizon for policy analysis" and further to
build "upon recent advances in the state-of-the-art in the develop-
ment and application of approaches for generating and studying
alternative futures."
One of the first projects undertaken by this branch was an
EPA Symposium on the Quality-of-Life (QOL) Concept which was held at
Airlie House in the late summer of 1972. As interest by the social science
community grew in the symposium during its planning phases, ESD staff
thought it desirable to undertake a series of inter-disciplinary study
seminars as a part of its work program to reinforce the interest
generated in QOL and other closely related subject matter.
Topics suggested for the seminar series ranged from environmental
management to questions of aesthetics. Lying somewhere between were
topics concerning: land-use carrying capacity; the nature of the en-
vironmental "crisis" and development of indicators of environmental
quality. The latter topic was eventually researched in-house and included as
a part of the QOL Symposium.
As a lead-in to the seminar series ESD had been given tentative ap-
proval toiund an EPA publication to be entitled "Environmental Issues and
the Social Sciences." The purpose of the project was to engage a number
of respected authorities in a wide range of disciplines to:
".. .focus on the expected contributions that social scientists may
offer to: (1) a better understanding of how to go about managing
our existing environment (both natural and man-made) and (2) a
process for creating desirable alternative environments for the
future."
The "En-
vironmental Issues and the Social Sciences" book project undertook
several turns of events to become the publication you, the reader, now have
in hand.
Ideas and suggestions contained in the three theme areas mentioned
in the Foreword are reflected in the six Chapters of this book. Portions of
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each contributed paper were used, as appropriate, to explore as full a
range of opinion in each area as possible. The charge given the editors was
to present in dialogue fashion for each area: the classical concepts and
trends; new concepts and possible trends and implications for growth
policy. Generally the introductory material prepared by the staff is identified
within the text by horizontal line separations.
this book is divided into two parts. Part One, Challenges of Alternative
Futures, reviews the environmental and population issues, presents a
recent systems method of analyzing the problems of growth and sum-
marizes the international implications of growth policy. Part Two, Cooing
with Alternative Futures, presents human behavioral factors and their
influence on growth policy. Classical and modern concepts of eco-
nomics and implications of economics for growth policy conclude the
work.
The book was written for policy-makers and planners at all levels of
government in the hope that the most recent thinking on population, en-
vironment and economic growth can be diseminated to initiate discussion
and dialogue and to expand the information base on which decisions are
based. We have many "alternative futures"; we seek alternatives which
preserve the environment and improve the quality of life.
John Gerba
Paul Boulay
IV
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RESEARCH MANAGEMENT
For Environmental Protection Agency
Anton Schmalz, Staff Consultant, Program Coordinator
John Gerba, Chief, Special Projects, General Editor
For Mind Three Communications Group, Inc.
Paul Boulay, President, Technical Editor
RESEARCH GUIDANCE
Environmental Protection Agency
Stanley M. Greenfield, Assistant Administrator for Research & Development
Leland D. Attaway, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research
Peter W. House, Director, Environmental Studies Division
Martin J. Redding, Chief, Comprehensive Environmental Planning
Branch, ESD
Alan Neuschatz, Chief, Environmental Management Branch
Richard M. Laska, Communications Director
Mind Three Communications Group, Inc.
Peter Boulay, Director of Editorial Services
Scott Callander, Director of Graphic Arts
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CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS
Peter Barth
Director of Research, U. S. Department of Labor
Murray Bowen
Clinical Professor of Psychiatry, Georgetown University
John Calhoun
Laboratory of Brain Evolution and Behavior, National Institute of
Mental Health
Alexander Christakis
Center for Contemporary Problems
Chester Cooper
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Lincoln Gordon
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Garrett Hard in
Professor of Human Ecology, University of California
Carl Madden
Chief Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Graham Molitor
Director of Government Relations, General Mills, Inc.
Eugene Peterson
Representing Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission
Ronald Ridker
Resources for the Future
S. Fred Singer
Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
Donald Spencer
Consulting Ecologist, National Agricultural Chemicals Association
Beatrice Willard
Member, Council on Environmental Quality
VI
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Table of Contents
Foreword i
Preface iii
Acknowledgements v
Part 1: Challenges of Alternative Futures
Chapter 1. The Nature of the Environmental Crises
Introduction 5
Elements of the Environmental Crisis 7
Definition of Environmental Crisis
Beatrice Willard 8
Environmental Policy and Management 16
Lessons Learned—An Opposing Viewpoint
Donald Spencer 21
Chapter 2. Implications of Zero Population Growth
Introduction 35
V.
The Pressure of Population
Graham Molitor 37
U.S. Population Forecasts 38
Determinants of Population Growth
Graham Molitor 41
Will the U.S. Maintain a ZPG Birthrate
S. Fred Singer 48
Urbanization of Population, Alexander Christakis 51
Effects of Urban Overpopulation, Graham Molitor 52
Can Man Adapt to Urban Living, Graham Molitor 54
Environmental Effects of Population Growth 55
A Classical Model for Environment and Population
Alexander Christakis 56
Economic and Welfare Implications of ZPG
S. Fred Singer 60
Resource and Environmental Consequences of ZPG
Ronald Ridker 62
The Policy Implications of ZPG
Ronald Ridker 76
VH
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Chapter 3. Analysis of Ecosystem Capacity
Introduction ^
on
Ecology of the Biosphere • • • °
The Spaceship Earth Concept ^
Implications for Today 91
(Remainder of Chapter by Eugene Peterson)
The Classical Problem of Population and
Industrial Growth 92
Limitations of Classical Planning 97
New Concepts for Planning 98
Carrying Capacity Analysis of the
Pacific Northwest 102
Alternative Goals for the Pacific Northwest 124
Carrying Capacity Implications for Policy 127
Chapter 4. International Implications of Growth Policy
Introduction 135
(Remainder of Chapter by Lincoln Gordon)
The International Impact of National
Growth Policy Alternatives 136
Implications of International Competition 137
Implications of National Alternatives for
the World Structure 142
Implementing International-Oriented Growth 147
Part 2: Coping with Alternative Futures
Chapter 5. Growth and Behavior
Introduction 161
Human Short Range Thinking 162
Responsibility and Personal Commitment 162
Productivity and the Quality of the Work
.Environment, Peter Barth 164
Changing the Attitudes of Society,
Garrett Hardin 168
Human Consciousness and Management of
jMultidisciplinary Activities, John Calhoun 171
The Systems Viewpoint of Human Behavior,
Murray Bowen 174
VIM
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Chapter 6. Growth and Economics
Summary , 183
Classical Concepts of Economic Growth
Carl Madden , 184
New Concepts of Economic Growth
Carl Madden 196
Sustainable Growth, Chester Cooper 207
Who Pays for Change, Carl Madden _212
Implementing Change, Carl Madden j?17
Implications for Economic Policy 221
Attributes of Successful Planning
Chester Cooper 221
Features of a Government-Business
Growth Policy, Carl Madden 224
Appendix 229
IX
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CHALLENGES OF ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
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The "challenges of alternative futures" encompass the problems of
providing a high quality of life with minimum environmental degradation to a
growing population tending to cluster in crowded urban areas and requiring
industrial, economic and technological growth.
In Part 1 several aspects of population and environment are discussed
from several viewpoints. The Nature of the Environmental Crisis is defined
in Chapter 1 from a viewpoint of ecological balance and stability. Seven
ecological principles are proposed and their implications for broad goals
and policy are outlined. Present activities of the Federal government in
managing the environment are reviewed; the need for economic incentives
complementary to and supporting regulation is discussed. The control of
pesticides is reviewed, recent information on decreasing residues of DDT
found in several test programs are presented leading to the author's con-
clusion that, with more complete information now available, pesticide
regulation might take a different course.
In Chapter 2 the Implications of Zero Population Growth (ZPG) are
discussed from several viewpoints. Recently the United States birth rate has
been decreasing and is currently below the replacement rate. Thus a Zero
Population Growth rate has been achieved. However, the population will
continue to grow in absolute numbers and trends to urbanization resulting
in densely populated areas will continue. Therefore population growth will
continue to be a problem for national and regional planners and decision-
makers.
In the Chapter current population forecasts are reviewed, reasons for the
declining fertility rate are presented and one contributing author concludes
that the rate will remain near its present value. He presents social, cultural
and economic reasons for his conclusion. The effects of population growth
on the environment under conditions of ZPG are reviewed first using a
single model to illustrate relationships, then presenting the results of a
more complete study.
In conclusion policy alternatives for achieving an improved quality of life
and environment are reviewed. Direct methods, i.e. specific pollution con-
trol, planned land use and similar procedures are shown by this author to
be superior to less specific goals such as "zero growth".
In Chapter 3 an Analysis of Ecosystem Capacity is presented. The paper
from which this material was taken presents a first attempt at applying an
analysis of carrying capacity to a region. First approximation numbers are
developed for the Pacific Northwest as a specific example of the technique.
The author's methodolgy includes the following steps: 1) establish a ben-
chmark quality of life standard (per capita income level and apportionment),
2) determine the capacity of resources in the region to supply material
goods, 3) determine the capacity of resources in the region to supply
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amenities (measured as recreational land available), 4) quantify the
variation of environmental quality as a function of population numbers and
5) evaluate alternative combinations of population and pollution control by
comparing the quality of life and regional capacity obtainable for each alter-
native. The author concludes that the approach is viable, given more
research and information. He recommends that this analytical tool be used
to support policy and planning analyses; he suggests that full dissemination
of information to the public, development of public conception of goals, ef-
fective land use and energy use and control are essential to long-range im-
provement of the environment.
In Chapter 4 the International Implications of Growth Policy are sum-
marized. The international dimension of environmental policy is discussed
from two viewpoints: 1) constraints of freedom of national action imposed by
international realities (i.e. oil importation) and 2) the effects of alternative
national growth policies on the world structure. Clearly, the international
dimensions of growth policy must be incorporated in planning at the outset
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I
NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CRISES
Introduction
Planners and decision makers at all levels of government and industry
are faced with the reality of pressure from the public to improve the quality
of the environment and the quality of life. This demand comes from a
general awareness of the degradation we inflict on our surroundings and
from a fear we may destroy ourselves if degrading trends are not reversed.
Concern for quality of life stems from an increasing emphasis on human
and social values. National, state and local policies must allow for these
considerations.
Quality of life is as difficult to define as happiness. It is highly subjective
and the concepts change with time. Attempts to define and measure quality
of life center on enumeration of economic, social, aesthetics,
psyschological and environmental factors generally agreed to affect quality
of life. It is clear than a quality of life ethic has become deeply engrained in
our society and that a growing demand for improving and maintaining the
quality of the environment is a principal component of that ethic.
Nearly everyone knows that ecology is the science dealing with the
relationships between organisms and their environment; that the biosphere
is that portion of the earth and its environment within which life is contained.
Nearly everyone perceives that all things in the biosphere are interrelated
and form a complex ecosystem. Everyone understands^ to some degree,
that the environment includes not only the physical reality surrounding man
but that man himself is an integral part of the environment. Indeed, he is the
only part able to willfully modify the environment. Everyone has heard of the
"environmental crisis" and the "population explosion." Most are concerned
about depletion of natural resources and many question the potential effects
of "uncontrolled technology."
Divergent views are held regarding the nature
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Some hold that the concept of crisis itself is a dangerous illusion—we will-
never reach a turning point after which unalterable degradation or dramatic
improvement will be realized. Instead we are faced with a slowly (lately
more rapidly) evolving change which must be controlled by continuous hard
work. Some put economic growth and other values above quality of life and
quality of environment and are unconcerned about environmental degrada-
tion. Some feel technology will find solutions to most of the problems before
they become critical.
This range of viewpoints exists because we are really quite ignorant
about many of the relationships, between population, economics,
technology, and the environment. In the past economic growth has been
empha zed not knowing at what expense it caused qualitative growth. The
social cost of environmental degradation has nowhere been accounted for
adequately. The environment as a comprehensive system with in-
terdependent parts including man has hardly been perceived. En-
vironmental considerations hardly entered the policy and decision process.
This report presents discussions of the major environmental issues,
taken from invited papers and other sources. In this Chapter current en-
vironmental policy and management are reviewed and an opposing view-
point, questioning whether we are guilty of over-control is presented. This
discussion illustrates the need for more information, more research, better
understanding and the need for a comprehensive conceptualiza-
tion—models, methods of analyses and unifying systems concepts—to bet-
ter analyze and evaluate environmental policy.
Subsequent Chapters will cover population growth and the implications
of Zero Population Growth, the application of carrying capacity analysis to
regional planning, the international implications of growth policy, and the
relationships between growth, economics and behavior.
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Elements of the Environmental Crisis
The princip al elements contributing to our environmental problems are
population, degradation of the physical environment, changing technology,
and economic growth.
The National Goals Research Staff summarized the principal issues as
follows:
Population Issues
The traditional view of population growth as a source of national
pride and strength is being re-examined. Some authorities argue
for zero population growth on the grounds that population stability
is imperative for survival, or will improve the quality of our society.
(For example, it might enable us to avoid the issue of limitations
on the use of energy and materials.)
The merits of sheer size now appear more debatable than
heretofore, particularly in the case of large metropolitan areas.
Large concentrations of population generate serious pollution
problems, traffic congestion, and higher per capita public ex-
penditures. And they are unduly vulnerable to power failures,
riots, and other disruptive social action. Thus, major questions are
asked: should we limit our population size, and if so, how? And
should we redistribute our population, and if so, how?
Environmental Issues
Historically, our concern over resources focused on whether
there would be enough food, energy, and materials to meet our
needs. Today, in the United States, the concern is about the ability
of land, air, and water to absorb all the wastes we generate. We
already have violated the aesthetic limits of pollution and, from
time to time and place to place, we have violated health and sur-
vival limits of pollution. Some argue that the long-run issue may
well be our survival. Questions often asked are: What can be done
to repair the damage already done? To what extent and by what
means will future pollution be contained within tolerable limits?
Are there fixed limits of environmental tolerance that might make it
imperative to limit the size of our population or set per capita
quotas on the amount of energy and material we may use?
Technology Assessment
Technology is becoming both more voluminous and more com-
plicated. The complexity of much new technology makes it more
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difficult to anticipate how it will do its primary job and what its
second-order consequences will be. As our understanding of
biological, ecological, economic, and social processes improves,
we are struck with the complexity of the consequences which
technology can produce. We have a growing determination and
belief in our capacity to evaluate the second-order consequences
of all our actions including the use of technology, and to include
their costs in our policymaking process.
Economic Issues
In the past, the air and water have been readily available for any
purpose. Our production and consumption activities could be
carried out without particular concern for conserving our natural
gifts.
But as production and consumption have risen (along with
population) more and more impositions have been made on the
air and waters. These incursions are the consequence of
economic growth and the notion that the environment is available
at no cost for whatever use we want, including that of disposal of
the wastes from economic activity. Thus, when we impose on our
air and waters in ways and amounts that use up these necessities,
we levy a real social cost. These resources are no longer free to
society.
Because private use of the physical environment is available at
no cost, the market system which allocates resources operates im-
perfectly. To attack pollution requires a balancing of the costs of
imposing on the environment with the economic benefits obtained
from the associated production and consumption.
Definition of Environmental Crisis
The following definition and discussion of the environmental crisis is
taken from the invited paper prepared by Bettie Willard, a member of the
Council on Environmental Quality. She defines the term environmental
crisis, reviews the fundamental principles of ecosystems, and presents
recent examples of ecological problems and man's response. She
suggests general strategies which can be implemented to deal with the
problems.
The definition of an "environmental crisis" is:
1. An imbalance among the physical, chemical, and biological elements
8
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and/or processes of an ecosystem that threatens the vitality and
productivity of some or all species of the system.
2. A disruption of a biological system to the point where it no longer can
support some or all the organisms in it.
3. A reversal of ecological processes of an ecosystem to a point where
several to many generations are required to restore the productivity,
complexity, and stability of the system.
The Rhetoric of Crisis
Much of the rhetoric about an environmental crisis is being used in an at-
tempt to awaken man to his relationship to the environment and to his
responsibility for being sure we approach no nearer a threshold, beyond
which there is no return. Man assumes this responsibility a little by default,
in that he, by his nature, is the only species on the earth that can remember
and transmit complex knowledge. This feature of man makes him capable of
forecasting the future in some limited ways, based on observations arising
from the past. Because he has this ability, it is incumbent on him to use it in
constructive ways.
The important thing to realize about an environmental crisis is that we do
not want to reach the point where we actually have one of any magnitude. I
think we can all see that we have had one of minor magnitude in some of
the waterways and urban areas of our Nation. Fortunately these problems
have not reached major proportions yet But we do not, under any condition,
want to reach the point of the major environmental crisis. The price is too
high—massive famine, extensive disease, stark landscapes, degeneration
of civilization as we know it. Therefore, why all this talk of environmental
crisis, when we have not yet experienced one?
I shoufd like to draw two analogies, to illustrate why we are using the
term:
t. In training children about hot stoves, poisons, cars, cliffs, etc., we
make the situation imperative because we know the consequences and
do not want the person to reach the point of crisis.
2. As adults we make budgets of time, materials, labor, money, because
we know the consequences of not doing so. Again we are unequivocal
in our approach, as a preventive rather than curative thing.
In each of these cases, the dire results of negative action are clear before
the adult mind. That clear picture motivates positive clearcut action.
Examples of Response to Environmental Problems
Now, in the case of "environmental crisis," the dire results of the trends
now in motion cause ecologists who see these consequences clearly, to
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use the term "environmental crisis" to get attention ancf motivate people
positively. For example:
LSoil erosion in the early 1900s led us to take positive action to
establish the Soil Conservation Service.
2. Exploitive forestry "practices" at the turn of the century led to the
establishment of the U.S. Forest Service and adoption of more ad-
vanced, long-range forest practices from European countries.
3. Overgrazing in the West resulted in the Taylor Grazing Act and in wise
wildlife management practices, such as carrying capacity.
4. The Kaibab deer herd die-off in the 1920s caused us to accept the role
of predators and to determine the carrying capacity of the range.
Principles Governing Ecosystems
Ecosystems, of which we are an integral part, are governed by the follow-
ing principles:
First, everything affects everything else. The more we learn of the
ecosystems of the earth, the more we realize the truth of this principle.
Never have we found evidence to the contrary. For example, just try to find a
biological sample from pole to pole without DDT or radiation in it. And how
did it get there?
Second, all living things exist as part of systems composed of physical
environmental factors—climate, soil, exposure, etc.; organisms; and the
processes that operate among the organisms and environment factors. Also
each species of living thing has a specific role to play in the ecosystem.
Third, in each system there are factors that limit the growth, reproduction,
or activities of some or all the species; therefore the distribution of species
is determined by these physical and chemical parameters interacting with
the nature of the species.
Fourth, each system has a definite capacity to carry the organisms of that
system, determined both by the physical features of the environment and
the nature of the biological components.
Fifth, in these systems all materials cycle—are reused, but the energy of
the systems flows in one direction—downward to uselessness.
Sixth, as specialization develops in a system, diversity increases; and as
diversity increases, stability of the system increases.
Seventh, all surfaces of the earth are either in varying stages of develop-
ment toward stability or at the permanent ecosystem for a given site for the
present conditions of climate.
As we examine these principles in light of their meaning to human
ecology, we find that man has rejected these principles as being not ap-
10
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plicable to him. He has, after all, demonstrated dominion over lack of food,
over fluctuating climate, over disease. So these principles obviously do not
apply to him—only to those other organisms less fortunate than he. This is
where and how he has created a potential short-or long-range ecological
crisis. For he is a part of the systems to which these principles apply,
whether he accepts the fact or not. And his overlooking of these principles
has precipitated potential or actual ecological crises of varying magnitudes.
/
Examples of Environmental Crisis
To emphasize this point, to get man's attention focused on the problem
before it is too late, ecologists have talked of "environmental crises", they
-have talked of "our plundered planet" (Osborne, 1941), of a "road to sur-
vival" (Vogt, 1941), a "land ethic" (Leopold, 1945)and an "ecological con-
science" (Sears, 1937). They have even spoken of a "silent spring" (Car-
son, 1962) in efforts to awaken man to the neccessity to take his niche—his
role in the ecosystems, not over these systems.
At this point in time, it behooves man to quickly bring himself into con-
formance with these principles. An ignominious end may await man—not
an end to the ecosystems of the earth, which have the potential to survive
the crisis. After all, man is the first organism, so far as we know, that has the
quality of rational thinking accompanied by memory and transmittal of
knowledge. This unique ability carries a special responsibility that it be
used for the benefit of all of the earth.
To implement man's conformance with the ecological principles outlined
above and to measure his degree of harmony with his ecosystem, we need
a variety of monitoring systems. We need to know the limiting factors
operating and how close we are to reaching them. We need to know the
level of energy consumption and what types of uses consume less. We
need to know the carrying capacity of ecosystems for man and his
processes, as well as for deer, elk, cows, sheep—and how close we are to
maintaining or exceeding this capacity. We need to augment the conscious
cycling of materials and to know better how these cycles affect the
ecosystems. We need to favor stability and diversity and know that we are.
Some of these monitoring systems are in use now. Some we will need to
devise.
To bring portions of the system into balance with other components, we
need to use pollution control devices. These are best designed to ac-
complish the balancing in the way the system always-has. For example,
spray irrigation for land disposal of sewerage, rather than river disposal.
All terrestrial organisms but man dispose of their organic wastes on
land—trees drop leaves and fruits—animals defecate on soil—all of which
returns nitrogen, carbon, phosphorous to the material cycles in a short time.
11
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But man sends his wastes out to sea to be made into rock, to be mine y
some as yet unknown organisms in eons to come, thus enforcing
need to mine more of these substances to return to the land from whence
he has taken them as food or fiber. A cycle of incredible magnitude and no
known utility!
Let us examine a few major environmental crises of recent years. Well-
known, but highly instructive is the Aswan Dam situation in which several
major imbalances were triggered by the closing of the dam:
1. Change in nutrient balance throughout the Nile Valley, traditional to the
productivity of this valley for literally thousands of years, by collecting
of sediment in Lake Nassar that once yearly fertilized the valley.
2. Change in nutrient level in the Mediterranean, lowering the productivity
of invertebrate fish food (shrimp), therefore of fish (sardines).
3. Change in soil moisture, allowing one stage of a parasite carrying
schistomyosis to develop and invade man which before had been con-
trolled by the periodic flooding, leading to major disease in the
population.
Therefore, what was intended as a great blessing to the Egyptians as a
source of power and controlled irrigation water, turned out to be a serious
detriment to food sources and the health of the nation.
Could this have been predicted and averted? Yes, definitely; but so doing
would have required one to several years of intensive ecological research
of the natural systems inhabiting the area to be affected. The technology to
accomplish this research existed. The desire to know and use it was
lacking.
A second and somewhat less dramatic example of environmental crisis is
represented by fire control practices in the Western United States. It has
recently been discovered that fire protection allows tinder to buNd up in
stands, so that when a fire does occur, the destruction is many times greater
than if the fire had been allowed to periodically clean out the tinder. Also
with fire protection, some valued tree species, such as sugar pine and giant
sequoia, are overgrown by less valued trees, such as incense cedar.
A third example was cited above—when man protected the Kaibab deer
of Grand Canyon from their life-long predators, they increased their num-
bers by 25 percent per year, soon to eat themselves out of house and
home. Having devastated their range, they died of starvation in large num-
bers. Some favor we did them!
So it is with man's not-so-infinite wisdom. He frequently turns out to be
much more like a bull in a china shop, not recognizing or obeying the time-
less principles that have operated to keep the systems that have spawned
him operating in a dynamic equilibrium. As Lynn White points out, man's
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complex of "having dominion" over everything has provided the roots of
our ecological crisis. Man has interpreted "having dominion" as having the
right to exploit, desecrate, destroy as he pleased. And now he is awakening
to the results of his actions; potential ecological crises.
Man has long believed, and with some justification, that any change he
brings to the natural system will be beneficial. At first, this was true. The
development of agriculture and the domestication of animals both enabled
man to be free of the need for hunting and to use this time for cultural pur-
suits. The construction of houses and the use of fossil fuels to heat them
enabled man to leave the cave.
Why did this awakening not happen earlier? Mainly because the systems
are capable of absorbing some abuse without changing drastically. Also, in
1969 two events made him see these systems more clearly. The Santa Bar-
bara oil spill and the landing on the Moon made him realize dramatically
how tenuous but important is that thin film of the Earth's biosphere. Now
these changes are showing cumulative degradation—trends which, if not
reversed, could lead to destruction of the race. Not a violent, catastrophic
destruction, but a slow, painful, whimpering destruction.
Application of Ecological Principles
When man applies the principles of ecosystems the results are strikingly
good. For example, when the limnologists at the University of Washington
realized the downward trends in motion in Lake Washington due to sewage
outfall into the lake, they designed a method of sewage disposal to bring
the system back closer to its original pre-man functioning. The results were
a dramatic return to a healthy ecosystem within three years.
A second example is the Pribiloff seals which, when protected against
hunting pressure during the crucial mating period and rearing of young,
made a significant comeback in population numbers. Similar examples can
be seen with several other rare and endangered species.
Thirdly, western ranges that have been managed at or below their
carrying capacity for cattle, deer, elk, have shown amazing recovery to their
once high productivity.
Seeing how quickly and dramatically results of obeying ecological prin-
ciples can occur, let us now examine each ecological principle in light of
some things man can do now to implement that principle in his activities:
First principle: If everything we do affects everything else, we need to
trace out the direct and indirect effects accurately, so as to know how to
modify action adequately and accurately. Examples are in DDT and
phosphate, where we have only been concerned with the primary ef-
fects—dead pests and clean clothes, without looking at the secondary, ter-
tiary, etc., effects of these substances in the pathways they follow in the
ecosystems of the world.
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Stopping phosphates in the ecosystem can be equally or more
devastating than too much, as phosphate provides an essential component
to transfer of energy in all biological systems.
The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 is causing agencies to
have to answer these questions and many more—at least in part. This is a
vast improvement, for even without all the answers, seriously addressing
the questions is a sobering experience that usually leads to more conserva-
tive action. More needs to be done.
Sometimes when we do find out where materials are going in the systems
with which we are dealing, we discover a natural pathway that protects man
from the harmful effects, thus we can put the pathway to use consciously. A
beautiful example of this is in the cypress swamp bordering the Savannah
River, downstream from the large AEC test reactor. This swamp was left in-
tact to separate the reactor visually from the surrounding area. Recently it
has been demonstrated that the swamp is a perfect sponge, absorbing all
radionucleides in the waters issuing from the reactor. But other pathways
need to be researched and then designed to build in effective buffers. We
cannot assume we will have such a simple situation in every site.
Second Principle: Not recognizing that all organisms play a role in
systems we sometimes remove one component (a predator) to benefit
another component (sheep) while severely putting out of balance the rodent
population, so they eat the grains and herbs to the detriment of the sheep.
By this same attitude we could easily have deprived ourselves of an ugly
dirty bread mold—penicillin! We need to research the life cycles of all
organisms and to understand better what role they are playing in the whole
scheme of things.
Third Principle: Knowing of the need for dry climate in the maturing of
dates, man brought the Ail-American Canal system to Coachella Valley and
along with it, a climate much less favorable for its prime cash crop, dates,
while also bringing water for a lesser cash crop, truck farming. Thus the
limiting factors of two organisms clashed to the detriment of the farmers' in-
come.
Also, not wanting to admit that where one flood has been, another will be,
we continue to build expensive structures in floodplains, then expect the
taxpayers of the Nation to support the construction of protective structures
to partially obviate the situation, instead of assisting people in relocation of
these structures and development of conforming uses of the floodplain.
We need to investigate how to integrate man's activities with the
processes of existing systems—to utilize the potential of the existing
systems, rather than altering them beyond recognition and to our detriment.
Fourth Principle: Believing that we can graze as many cattle on an area of
land as can stand on the ground, we alter the productivity of grasslands,
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sometimes totally, so they are no longer grasslands but desert scrub. We
do the same thing with businesses and industry, believing that space is the
only determinant to carrying capacity, not demand, critical ecosystems,
operating ecosystem processes and neighborhood needs. We need to
study carefully, with a systems approach to determine the carrying capacity
of various systems for the activities we wish to impose on them. Once these
capacities are known, we need to function within them.
Fifth Principle: Oblivious of the natural cycles of materials, we dispose of
our wastes in such places and by such manners as to achieve a linear
rather than cyclic pathway for the materials. Also, since higher consumption
of energy is rewarded by lower prices per unit, we hasten the end of fuels
by a price structure and use pattern that is against the natural energy con-
servation modes. Also, we do not analyze how some substances move in
the system, so awaken with surprises like the release of mercury by the bur-
ning of fossil fuels.
Knowing that such things can happen should alert us to tracing out all
pathways of materials in our environment, especially such substances as
cadmium, plutonium, and arsenic that are potentially damaging to the living
system in small quantities. Also, the pending energy crisis should propel us
to use energy in the most efficient manner possible, and to use renewable
sources over nonrenewable sources. For example, in Miami homes that
once had solar water heaters had recently abandoned them in favor of the
"all-electric home". What a tribute to Madison Avenue!
Sixth Principle: To accommodate mechanical harvesting devices and
desire for crops of uniform structure and performance, we abandon systems
of diversity, only to wail and moan when such systems are not resilient to
slight fluctuations of climate, etc. We need to evolve systems of agriculture
that have both diversity and high performance, and are resilient because of
their diversity.
Seventh Principle: Forgetting the decades, centuries, even millenia it
takes to develop ecosystems, we scrape them off with abandon, only to
wonder what happened to our clear fishing streams and animal populations.
We need to be as expert at transplanting or restoring ecosystems as we are
at eliminating them. The Germans strip-mine property and return the
property to its owner with guaranteed 25 per cent increase in productivity.
Why can't we?
Instituting these and many other ideas ecologists abound with will begin
to bring man into his niche as a member of the community of life and to
alleviate the ecological crisis. But it takes practicing the "land ethic", using
our "ecological conscience".
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Environmental Policy and Management
Early efforts at managing the environment were hampered by a lack of
understanding and information regarding the ecosystem. Bettie Willard
summarizes these problems as follows.
Compartmentalization of action and legislation:
—forests are dealt with in Agriculture
—fisheries are managed in Commerce and Interior
—soils are managed in Agriculture
—wildlife are managed in Interior
The closest we come to managing whole ecosystems is the National Park
Service. Nor are data integrated anywhere centrally. So little wonder we get
no holistic policy-making or decisions.
Homogenization of application of standards, management practices, fun-
dings, with little or no recognition of the differences in processes operating
in different ecosystems, regions, communities. After all, individualization is
a basic American tradition, but we forget it frequently, when dealing with the
environment.
Fractionalism of efforts to alleviate environmental problems:
—set air standards with little look at where pollutants will go, once cap-
tured (perhaps to make dirtier water or land);
—develop water law with no concern for the fact that water is integral to
the land on which it arises and flows;
—manage agriculture solely from a political and economic point of view,
not from the standpoint of where crops grow best and with the minimum of
disruption and expenditure of energy, money, land resources;
—manage resources in a linear, rather ttian a cycle fashion—tiave goods
and material always eventually destined to the junk heap and using valuable
land for that!
—using energy and resources as though they were infinite and eternal;
—appropriate funds on a short-term base for long-term management;
then change horses in mid-stream, forgetting that the objects being
managed have a longer lead-time for adaptation than we have given them.
We can all learn valuable lessons in policy-making from systems analysis
and use of what such analysis tells us.
In 1970 these problems were attacked and the Federal environmental
program organized and consolidated with the passage of the National'En-
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vironmental Policy Act of 1969 which defined national policy and created
the Council on Environmental Policy in the Executive Office of the
President. Later in 1970 the Environmental Protection Agency was formed
to consolidate federal activities in pollution, solid waste disposal, pesticide
regulation and environmental radiation.
The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) established a
national environmental policy and created the Council on Environmental
Quality in the Executive Office of the President.
The major requirement of NEPA was that all Federal agencies be
required to include in all proposals for legislation and other major activities
an environmental impact statement summarizing the environmental effects
of the action. Since its inception the courts have held the environmental im-
pact procedure is court enforceable upon citizen suit. The best known
citizen action involved the proposed Alaskan pipeline.
The Council on Environmental Quality was established to develop and
recommend national- environmental policy to the President, to conduct
studies, review programs and to assist in preparation of the annual Environ-
mental Quality Report, required by the NEPA.
Activities of the Council on Environmental Quality
Shortly after the Council was established, the Office of Environmental
Quality was formed (Environmental Quality Improvement Act of 1970) to
provide staff to the Council. Later by Executive Order the Council was em-
powered to recommend priorities in environmental programs to the
President and Federal agencies. The Council began to encourage the
development and use of environmental quality indicies and monitoring sys-
tems.
The Council has been active in projects such as nonpolluting power
sources for automobiles, solid waste management, pollution control,
pesticides, control of toxic substances, reduction of pollution by Federal
facilities and land management.
The Environmental Protection Agency
EPA was established in December 1970 and consolidated into one of-
fice the major Federal programs dealing with air and water pollution, solid
waste disposal, pesticide regulation and environmental radiation. As an
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operating line agency, EPA is responsible for the conduct and ad-
ministration of Federal pollution control programs.
EPA established national air quality standards, established a framework
for state establishment of emission standards and enforces the provisions
of the Clean Air Act. EPA also administers the 1975-76 auto emission stan-
dards program, regulation of gasoline additives, other motor vehicle
pollution regulations and is supporting research on development of a clean
car.
EPA also established and enforces water quality standards through the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act and the permit provisions of The Refuse
Act and conducts air and water quality monitoring programs and research.
Control of pesticides is maintained through the registration provisions of
the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. EPA issued
notices of cancellation of all DDT and other persistent pesticide
registrations.
In the area of solid waste management the Resource Recovery Act of
1970 requires EPA to publish guidelines for construction and operation of
solid waste systems and to develop methods for disposal of hazardous
wastes. Many open dumps were closed and replaced with improved
disposal systems.
Other EPA activities include cleanup of federal facilities, control and
regulation of toxic substances, setting air-water ambient radiation standards
and the study of noise pollution. Basically, then EPA has functioned as the
federal environmental regulatory agency.
Economic Incentives and Regulation of Pollution
Pollution control requires regulation and enforcement. There is growing
recognition that regulation alone, without economic incentives is not the op-
timum approach and is difficult to implement. A recent commentary by
Stanley M. Greenfield, EPA's Assistant Administrator for Research and
Development states the case as follows:
A purely regulatory system leaves pollution itself cheap while effective
control is expensive. Therefore, the firm or industry or municipality which is
best able to delay having effective abatement forced upon it will gain in the
market. Among firms in an industry, the first to develop an effective but ex-
pensive control technique for itself risks being forced by the regulatory
agency to apply it. Because availability and reasonableness of technology
is determined on a plant-by-plant basis, in legal fact if not in legislative or
administrative theory, the hapless innovator is likely to find that his com-
petitors escape with much less costly actions unless his new techniques
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are applicable and available to them; a polluter has little to gain and much
to lose by being first to develop a new, more costly technique.
The same principles hold for industries in an economy. For example, if
the copper smelters develop and have forced upon them expensive control
measures, copper loses relative to aluminum in the electrical conductor
market.
In a regulatory system, the strongest incentive for research and develop-
ment by the polluters is the need to defend themselves against charges that
technology is available but they are not using it. In court, an excellent
defense is to demonstrate that major efforts are being made but that
technical difficulties have not yet been overcome. This type of research and
development effort also allows the polluters to produce a good fall-back
position: after much work, they can say that it is technically impossible to
reach the original control target, but they now are going ahead with con-
struction of a compromise technique which is the best currently possible.
Until we have some measures of true total costs and total benefits in
which we have confidence, we really do not have a rational basis for deter-
mining economic viability of any level of environmental quality. We certainly
do not want to incur costs for increments of environmental quality im-
provement if the incremental benefits are less than those costs.
A major environmental policy issue is: How much improvement in the
quality of the environment does society want? The corollary to this is, how
much will society pay to improve the quality of the environment? What will
they trade off (and how much of it) to get environmental improvement? I
believe this issue has to be resolved before any comprehensive en-
vironmental policy can be developed.
Neither the total costs nor the total benefits are developed to the point
where they can be used to select levels of pollution abatement or en-
vironmental quality with confidence that the test of incremental benefits
equalling incremental costs has been met.
In commenting on the policy dilemma of providing economic incentives
within the existing regulatory framework Greenfield points out that the
regulatory process fails to
... use financial incentives and the mechanisms of the market place to
encourage industry to abate rather than to pollute because it will remain
more profitable to pollute than to be innovative in applying expensive
abatement technologies. How do we go about developing public policy to
change this so that the same economic forces which drive the economy
successfully in other areas will work to enhance environmental quality?
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To approach an answer to this question, we must understand why market
forces have hitherto made it more profitable to pollute than to abate. Simply
put, air and water until recently have been for all practical purposes,
treated as free goods. In like manner, we have considered land and many
natural resources sufficiently plentiful or of such little market value that we
use land for dumps for solid wastes, toxic substances, etc.; we abandon
strip mines without restoration, and we encourage the depletion of natural
resources, such as oil. So long as this philosophy prevails, the market costs
of technological enterprise will not include the social costs of the human
and ecological damages of pollution. So long as such costs can be "ex-
ternalized" by shifting them to others, the polluter finds it more profitable to
pollute rather than abate.
Policies to include such costs as part of the cost of production will in-
crease the prices paid by consumers. This will "internalize" the costs, and
the market pricing mechanism will no longer be distorted by allowing con-
sumers to shift the pollution externalities to other sectors of society who do
not benefit.
At the present time, sulfur and auto emission taxes to complement the
Clean Air Act, and effluent fees and sewerage charges mandated under the
new water quality act, are being considered to provide market incentives for
abatement rather than pollution. The simple economic logic of such ap-
proaches is that if taxes or charges have to be paid on pollutants, and if they
are sufficiently high to make it more costly to continue to pollute than to
abate, then there will be a profit incentive to develop and apply abatement
technologies.
In addition to the need to develop the information required to determine
the appropriate structure of such tax (as opposed to subsidy) incentives,
there are two general problems which create a dilemma for EPA in develop-
ing plans to implement such a policy. One stems from the real fact of life
that producers and consumers now avoiding paying the costs of pollution
will not willingly accept the higher costs of production/price of con-
sumption. Thus, pressure against such incentive taxes may be expected
from present groups not now internalizing such pollution costs.
A second issue arises from the fact that EPA must carry out the mandate
to abate pollution within a regulatory framework.
The mandate requires research, development and demonstration
capability to carry out this mission. In a sense this is counter-productive to
the longer-range objective of providing incentives for technologically-based
enterprise to assume this responsibility and incorporate the total cost of
abatement into costs reflected in market prices.
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Other Elements of Environmental Policy
The review of major government activities in the environment presented
above shows that the thrust of the government programs has been largely
regulatory. Other approaches to environmental management which have not
yet started to any extent but which may become increasingly important
methods for implementing environmental policy include development of
economic incentives and application of technology assessment
Certain economic incentives have been proposed as supplements to
regulation or as additional means of managing the environment. Tax write-
offs and federal assistance to industry have been suggested to foster
pollution control. Charges or taxes on pollutive effluents or emissions,
especially backed by standards and regulation, could provide an incentive
to industry to control pollution. Examples are the gasoline lead tax and
proposed taxes on sulfur oxides emission.
In many instances the cost of controlling pollution will probably be
passed on to the ultimate consumer. Therefore, the public can be expected
to take a strong interest in such proposals, if adequately informed.
Technology assessment means determining the full impact of new
technology, including secondary and tertiary effects before the technology
is applied. This follows from the emerging viewpoint that the manufacturer
or industry must show that his proposed activity will produce no harmful en-
vironmental effects before he precedes. The idea is not new, but its applica-
tion to environmental management is new.
Such proposed environmental management techniques illustrate the
need for a systems approach. Technology assessment, by definition re-
quires a detailed understanding of all elements of the environment in order
to accurately assess the impact of new technology. Incentives, to be ef-
fective, also require detailed knowledge of the environmental system and its
economics.
Lessons Learned—An Opposing Viewpoint
One of the environmental areas receiving wide attention is that of
pesticides. Following Rachel Carson's dramatic plea in "Silent Spring"
public concern led to greatly increased federal and state regulation of
pesticides. The use of DDT was essentially eliminated. In the following
discussion Donald Spencer, Consulting Ecologist for the National
Agricultural Chemicals Association questions some of the earlier analyses
and forecasts and points out some little-discussed potential positive effects
of enlightened use of pesticides.
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Evidence of Declining Pesticide Residues
Most of the tests that have been designed to shovy th£ acute and chronic
toxicity of pesticides in water use a solution of the pesticide. In long-term,
low-level exposure, a solution of the pesticide is "dripped" into a mixing
stream on a continuous basis, then into the test aquaria. For example, in
one well-conducted study oysters were raised from juveniles to sexual
maturity at a constant exposure of one part per billion of (ppb) DDT in
flowing seawater. By the end of the 12th week of the test, the oysters had
acquired a body residue of 74 parts per million (ppm), a factor of 75,000
greater than the quantity at any one time in the seawater. The residue in the
oyster had not changed significantly at the end of the 24th week, and by the
end of the 36th week of continuous exposure had dropped back to 60
ppmd).
What was observed is a common phenomenon with DDT and related
chlorinated hydrocarbons. When first exposed to the pesticide, residue
levels in the body rise rather sharply, then level off or may subsequently
decline to a somewhat lower plateau. This is a "steady state" in which input
is balanced by degradation and excretion of the DDT. The height of the
body residue level will vary with the degree of exposure. After 36 weeks of
exposure to these very dilute solutions of DDT (which is the maximum
solubility of DDT in pure water) the DDT use was terminated and the oysters
exposed only to uncontaminated seawater. In the following 12 weeks, the
DDT residues in the oysters declined from 60 ppm to 0.16 ppm.
The above study illustrates the oyster's capability to accumulate DDT
residues some 75,000 times the environmental background levels—if the
chemical is in solution. In December 1972, Dr. Philip A. Butler, who has
been in charge of the National Estuarian Monitoring Program since its in-
ception in 1965, reported on the results of pesticide analyses in 8,095
samples of oysters collected from 183 permanent estuarian sites in the
United States, including Alaska. The maximum DDT residues detected (1.0
to 5.4 ppm) occurred in less than 0.5 percent of the samples. The per-
centage of samples containing negligible residues (0.01 ppm) during the
last year (1971) as compared to earlier years increased 85 percent in 12 of
the 15 States where estuarian monitoring took place. His concluding
paragraph states, "The data demonstrate that the decline in DDT residues
in molluscs has been nearly universal on the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and
Pacific Coasts, although beginning at different times at different places. In
some areas DDT has disappeared from this filter-feeding level of the trophic
web within 12 months of the termination of its local use. This suggests that
barring further input, DDT will disappear biologically within one or two
generations of sensitive estuarine fauna."(2).
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Given the oyster's ability to accumulate 75 ppm of DDT from a
background level of only 1.0 ppb, and a finding that the highest residue in
natural populations was 5 ppm, we must conclude that most of the DDT was
precipitated out in silt and organic matter before it reached the estuaries, or
that the silt-complexed DDT is not as available for cycling in the food web
as had been anticipated, or that it undergoes fairly rapid degradation in the
brackish waters of the estuaries. Regardless of the explanation, residue
levels are declining.
Before leaving the discussion of the declining residues of DDT and its
metabolities, it might prove useful to indicate supporting data from other
studies. Since 1964, the Food and Drug Administration has been recording
the pesticide residues in ready-to-eat foods. Samples of every class of
foodstuffs were collected from 30 markets in 28 different cities and
prepared for the table. The diet used was that of a 16-year-old boy. In the
period June 1969-April 1970, "the daily intake of total chlorinated organics
dropped 22 percent from the previous reporting period (June 1968-April
1969)"(3).
One segment of the "National Human Monitoring Program for
Pesticides" has now been published (4). This activity comes under the
Pesticide Community Studies of EPA which, among other projects, has
established and maintained in 14 States epidemiology studies by con-
tractual arrangement with State health departments and/or local medical
schools. The State of Utah, Department of Social Services, Division of
Health, reports, "Mean values of total DDT in adipose tissue for the years in
which these samples were obtained were 9.0 ppm in 1968, 7.2 ppm in
1969, and 5.3 ppm in 1970, indicating a decrease in storage levels" (5).
The English have also been following the residue levels in human fat in
the United Kingdom since 1963. In a report covering the period 1969-
1971, published in the British Medical Journal, the following conclusions
are drawn:
"It is again gratifying to record that the mean concentrations of the three
main organochlorine pesticides found in human fat (in the United
Kingdom)—namely BHC, dieldrin, and DDT—have continued to decrease
over recent years .... If the results from the latest study are compared with
those obtained in 1965-67, the decrease in the dieldrin content based on
the geometric means for all samples, is equivalent to about 30 percent of
the earlier value ... while the decrease for the total DDT is slightly over 20
percent of the earlier value." (6).
ft is difficult to reconcile the above monitoring results with the following
statement from a Report for The Club of Rome's project on the predicament
of mankind, entitled "The Limits of Growth" (7): "The graph (Figure 22, DDT
Flows in the Environment) shows what would happen if in 1970 the world
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DDT application rate began to decrease gradually until it reached zero in
the year 2000. Because of the inherent delays in the system, the level of
DDT in fish continues to rise for more than 10 years after DDT use starts
declining, and the level in fish does not come back down to the 1970 level
until the year 1995—more than two decades after the decision is made to
reduce DDT application." I believe that the error made here was that in their
computer programming they equated DDT with persistent chemicals known
to have half-lives running into tens of thousands of years. For example, at
another point in the Report the following statement appears: "We include
only one class of pollutants—the long-lived, globally-distributed family of
pollutants, such as lead, mercury, asbestos, and stable pesticides and
radioisotopes—whose dynamic behavior in the. ecosystem we are begin-
ning to understand."
In no way can DDT and related chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticides be
classed with lead, mercury, asbestos, and certain stable radioisotopes in
terms of persistence in the environment. DDT can be degraded by light,
high temperatures, chemical action, and a goodly number of fungi and bac-
teria. I know of no species of fish, bird or mammal that cannot at least par-
tially metabolize and excrete DDT, although at greatly differing rates. The
compound may last as short an interval as two hours in activated sewage
sludge. On the other hand, a soil can be so overloaded with DDT that it kills
the very micro-organisms on which degradation may depend. Certainly
when incorporated in soil below the zone occupied by living organisms,
and in the absence of oxygen, it persists for long periods. But the fact
remains that it is degradable and does not accumulate remorselessly in the
living environment. Had we from the outset of this era of environmental con-
cern been able to demonstrate that, by adjusting the input of DDT, unac-
ceptable residues in non-target species could be reduced as rapidly as the
current monitoring programs are indicating, our regulatory programs might
have taken a different course.
Specific Lessons Learned
It was generally assumed that the far-flung residues of DDT found in fish
and wildlife were the result of progressive build-up of environmental levels
from 25 years of continued use. Many statements appeared warning that to
add another season's use, another pound, might push the residue level
beyond a threshold where another species of wildlife might become en-
dangered. None of the monitoring programs to date that have covered a
span of years have shown any progressive build-up of environmental back-
ground residue levels of DDT. The perfection of gas chromatography for
residue analysis, and the extension of residue monitoring beyond that of
man and raw agricultural foods, did not take place until the middle 1960's.
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We cannot document the general environmental background residue levels
of DDT and its metabolities prior to 1965. However, I hold the conviction,
based on more recent studies of rates of disappearance of DDT residues,
that an environmental background "steady state" had been reached by the
mid-1950's and was being sustained at that point by the annual input
Please note that we are still working with residue information for 1965-
1970, at which time there were still fair amounts of DDT in the "user
pipeline" in the United States. I look forward with much interest to the
residue information for the period 1971-1973, during which time most of
the remaining uses of DDT in the United States were phased out.
DDT does not represent the type of problems encountered by all
pesticide chemicals—only a very small group of related chlorinated
hydrocarbons. The remaining 99 percent show a wide range of chemical
structure, differing one from the other in possible effects beyond their
design purpose. But from our experience with DDT, there are several
valuable lessons that have applicability to future regulatory programs gover-
ning all classes of chemical contaminants.
First: There is need for greater understanding of, and appreciation for the
principle of dose-related effects!
Second: The design of tests to develop pre-registration, or pre-marketing
safety information should take cognizance of the applicability of the data to
actual field use. For example, if the limit of solubility of a given pesticide in
water is 2 ppm, then an acute toxicity study, in which the aquatic animal is
exposed to 20 ppm with the aid of auxiliary solvents, is merely an academic
exercise—but it will mislead and alarm the public. The highly controversial
study conducted at the Bionetics Research Laboratories on a technical
sample of the herbicide 2,4,5-T not only focused attention on a manu-
facturing impurity in the herbicide, but introduced a "fudge factor" in the
study by using dimethyl sulfoxide as a solvent (8).
Third: We have moved too rapidly in some cases when unanticipated ad-
verse effects surfaced and discarded a tool before we had another to cope
with the pest problem. A moratorium imposed on the use of a pesticide
whose safety is not flawless should stipulate that the Administrator, after
careful review of the risk/benefit equation based on an environmental im-
pact study, could permit the use on a case-by-case basis.
Fourth: The regulation of pesticide chemicals presently falls under six
pieces of Federal legislation (Table 1). Regulation of pesticide chemicals
began as-early as 1910: In 1947, the passage of the Federal Insecticide,
Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act provided for registration of all pesticide
products and set up an enforcement procedure based on labeling and con-
trol of interstate shipments. The requirements for registration specified that
the manufacturer provide.test data showing his product to be both effective
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Table 1. Federal Legislation Regulating Pesticides^-1973
1) FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL PESTICIDE CONTROL ACT OF 1972. (Pub. Law 92-518)
Regulates manufacture and sale. Regulates the practice of
formulator, distributor, and applicator. User can be penal-
ized for incorrect use. Requires very comprehensive pre-
marketing evaluation of product effectiveness, safety, and
environmental impact. Authorizes research and monitoring
programs on pesticides.
2) FEDERAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ACT: Amendments of 1972.
(Pub. Law 92-500)
Regulates point discharges of effluents (including pesti-
cides). Sets standards for individual chemical residues
in water.
3) FEDERAL FOOD, DRUG, AND COSMETIC ACT: Miller pesticide residue
amendment of 195^. (Pub. Law 83~5l8)
Authorized to set tolerances for pesticides in raw agricul-
tural products and to monitor the 'food source and seize
products that do not conform.
4) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ACT OF 1972. (Pub. Law 91-596)
Authorized to set health and safety standards for personnel
during manufacturing, formulating, or use of toxic agents.
Claims authority to set re-entry time into areas treated
with toxic substances.
5) POISON PREVENTION PACKAGING ACT. (Pub. Law 91-601)
CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT. (Pub. Law 92-673)
Requires household products containing hazardous pesticides
to be packaged with a safety closure that children five or
under cannot open.
6) NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT OF 1969. (Pub. Law 91-190)
Requires all agencies conducting pest control programs,
whether on public lands or by cooperative agreement on
private lands, to prepare environmental .impact statements
before initiating action.
26
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and safe. This 1947 law was periodically updated and the pre-marketing
requirements made more exacting. The new Federal legislation that
amends and supplements the earlier Act are truly comprehensive and
stringent.
The State legislation on pesticide regulation and associated environ-
mental quality actions form a veritable maze of controls (Table 2). The at-
tempt to legislate "safety" has now been carried to such a length as to
justify the question, have we over-reacted?
Are Pesticides Over-Controlled?
The evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of a pesticide chemical
before it can be marketed has become so detailed and time-consuming that
if a promising new pesticide emerged from the preliminary screening trials
this morning, it would be a minimum of five years before it could be made
available for public sale. The research needed to satisfy Federal registration
will take that long. Despite this intense pre-market safety check, not enough
questions can be answered to preclude the development under subsequent
use of some undesirable effects. A very necessary adjunct to the pre-
market evaluation of pesticides are the national monitoring programs. Star-
ted as a voluntary, interdepartmental Federal program in 1964, it is now a
required program under the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act of
1972, for which the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency is
responsible (Section 20(b) and (c)). This monitoring activity supplements,
in the general environment, the pesticide residue monitoring programs in
raw agricultural food products that have been conducted by the Food and
Drug Administration since 1954; and by the U.S. Public Health Service for
pesticide residues in man since 1951. Initially the broadened program in
1964 put too much reliance in the yet-developing gas chromatography, thus
quantification of a given residue was often inaccurate. Still another short-
coming that plagues the monitoring program is the loss of time—2
years—between the collection of samples and the publishing of results. If
the monitoring programs are to pinpoint trouble spots, and alert us to prac-
tices that result in environmental accumulation so that the problem can be
met before a crisis arises, then prompt release of information is imperative.
The task of the residue analyst is an exceedingly difficult one, for he must
recover not only the parent compound but also its metabolities from a wide
range of biological materials loaded with interfering substances. He often is
forced to work in the parts-per-billion or in the parts-per-trillion range. But
what is most disconcerting is to study an excellent piece of residue
analysis, then find that such inadequate notes have been taken when the
sample was collected as to obviate any application of the residue in-
formation. Despite its present shortcomings, environmental monitoring is
27
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Table 2. State Legislation Augmenting Federal Regulation of Preticides
December 1971
All 50 States and Puerto Rico have a
PESTICIDE REGISTRATION LAW
36 States have established a category of
RESTRICTED USE PESTICIDES
21 States have legislation
REGULATING HERBICIDE USE
20 States have legislation
LICENSING PESTICIDE DEALERS
35 States have legislation
REGULATING CUSTOM APPLICATORS OF PESTICIDES
36 States have legislation
LICENSING STRUCTURAL PEST CONTROL OPERATORS
NOTE: During 1972 the States enacted into law k] additional pieces of
legislation bearing on pesticide regulation. The Federal require-
ment for licensing of custom applicators will, of course, be
nationwide within the next four years. Likewise, the Federal list
of restricted-use pesticides will also apply nationwide. At the
State level the use-restrictions can only be more stringent.
28
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still one of our most valuable tools for achieving environmental quality.
There is no completely safe pesticide, any more than there is a completely
safe lawnmower or a completely safe electrical circuit just safe ways of
using them. A given pesticide of high toxicity may be used effectively and
with no significant adverse side effects by limiting the amounts used, by
placement that avoids exposure of beneficial species, by timing that ac-
complishes the same end and by formula additives that warn or repel.
Benefits From Pesticides and Chemicals
Pest control chemicais were intended from the outset to make this earth a
better place in which to live. They are designed to assist in improving en-
vironmental quality—not to degrade it. It is not difficult to find where these
chemical tools have been incorrectly employed by intent or accident. There
will always be need for improvement. Nevertheless, the end result is that
today in the United States we have better health and live longer than the
people who preceded us. In the early 1900's, the corner grocery store
carried about 100 food items and no fresh fruit or vegetables out of season.
Now the modern supermarket carries about 6,000 food items in better
variety, quality, and availability throughout the year. There are more fish to
be caught in our freshwater streams and lakes, and more wildlife than there
was 40 years ago when the new class of pesticides began to be used. I am
not saying, that because of pesticides there is more wildlife today, but
neither am I discounting the role it plays in our total wildlife management
programs (Table 3).
We have more leisure time since chemical tools have replaced much
drudgery and wearisome toil. We have more recreational opportunities in
the great outdoors than people anywhere else around the globe, partly
because our advanced thechnology—which includes chemical tools—has
made it possible for us to provide ourselves with the basic requirements for
existence on fewer acres. For example, the technological package that per-
mits us to produce more food on fewer acres (by soil conservation, im-
proved cropping procedures and irrigation, new plant varieties, new breeds
of livestock, sophisticated machinery, fertilizers and pesticides) has
released approximately 290 million acres that we can now use for other
purposes, such as open space, recreational areas, and wildlife refuges.
Forests and timbered tracts occupy about a third of our total land area in the
United States, Although trees are a renewable resource, which should be
promptly harvested at some optimum stage in their growth and the area im-
mediately restocked, nevertheless we would like to be able to retain a
significant portion of this resource to frame our homes, shade our parks,
furnish recreation and wilderness areas, and even become decadent and
hollow, thus providing bird and wildlife nesting sites. But lumber and pulp
29
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Table 3. Enhancement of Wildlife Population by Pesticide Use
MORE FISH IN FRESH WATERS for 25 million anglers a year to harvest.
Fish hatchery support impossible without chemical tools.
RECOVERY OF SPORT FISHING IN THE GREAT LAKES credited to a pesticide.
Re-build fish stocks possible after control of Lamprey eel.
ANADROMOUS FISHERIES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE COMBACK TRAIL.
Hatchery and rearing pond operations require chemical tools
AQUICULTURE OF FISH AND SHELLFISH requires algal and parasite control.
Mountain trout and catfish farming—also new mariculture operations.
MAN'S INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION IS SHARED BY WILDLIFE. An important
percentage of the annual food requirement of many species.
RECYCLING BROWSE THAT HAS ESCAPED BY HEIGHT GROWTH is accomplished by
herbicides without cultivation or replanting.
ESTABLISHING AND MAINTAINING OPENINGS, BROWSEWAYS, AND CORRIDORS by
selective herbicide methods benefits game and non-game animals.
PREVENTION OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION BY INSECTS AND DISEASE, such as-large
scale forest defoliation and destruction, serious denuding of
rangelands by grasshoppers, etc.
MARSH AND WETLANDS CAN BE TOLERATED AND SAVED AS WILDLIFE HABITAT because
of our capability to control insect vectors of disease for man,
such as the mosquito, blackflies, etc.
CONTROL OF LIVESTOCK DISEASES MATERIALLY BENEFIT BIG GAME. Deer and
exotic big game in Texas increased rapidly following suppression
of the Texas cattle fever tick and the screwworm.
CONTROL OF POULTRY DISEASES AND PARASITES ALSO PROTECTS UPLAND GAME BIRDS.
A part of the success of the re-introduction of the wild turkey
can be credited to lessened exposure to poultry diseases.
MARSH DWELLERS STAND TO GAIN HEALTHWISE FROM MAN'S INSECT CONTROL PROGRAMS.
For example, Canadian geese suffer mortality from a form of malaria,
transmitted by a marsh mosquito.
WILDLIFE CAN BE A RESERVOIR OF DISEASE TRANSMITTED ANIMAL TO MAN. Because
we have pesticides to control the insect vectors, we are privileged
to keep these potential carriers of diseases around us, such as song
b i rds/encepha1i ti s.
30
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will be in short supply by 1980. So our set-asides for the above purposes
will depend on the success of the technological advances recently an-
nounced by the forest industry—that through the development of fast-
growing, superior class trees, and improved silvacultural practices, they
can triple the production of fiber per acre of commercial forest
Similarly, the technological package that enables us to ship, store,
process, package and serve foods after they are harvested, with minimal
loss or lowering of quality, makes it unnecessary to employ still more acres
to make up for losses that in some under-developed countries may equal a
third of their production. Chemicals to control fungi and bacteria which
cause spoilage and decay of foods are required to be registered as
pesticides along with the better known chemicals that control insect pests
and rodents. Pesticides do a yeoman job as sanitizing agents in flour mill,
bakery, retail store, restaurant, and in our homes. How would we run a
hospital without them?
Technology indirectly releases another huge block of land—perhaps
another 200 million acres—and helps to conserve non-renewable resour-
ces for the furture'by prolonging the utility of manufactured goods. In the
home many items such as rugs, draperies, overstuffed furniture, mattresses,
and clothing received some chemical assistance at the manufacturing level
against factors of deterioration and destruction. The housewife supplements
this with spot treatments against fabric-eating pests like carpet beetles,
silverfish, moths, roaches, and even an occasional mouse or rat She fights
mildew and mold. She launders these fabrics with gentle soaps and
detergents in a modern washing machine. This is a far cry from the harsh
soaps, and the repeated flailing of the wet garment on a rock at the river's
edge (as is common at the village level in India). All this means less
replacement fewer acres needed to grow cotton, less pasture for sheep,
and less basic chemicals from wood and oil.
Man's technological ability is forever creating new problems but at the
same time it has provided him many choices and opportunities for
developing and maintaining a quality envi'ronment in which to'live. As stated
by Dr. Rene J. Dubos in a lecture given before the American Association for
the Advancement of Science, "In my opinion, the human use of natural
resources and of technology is compatible with ecological health, and can
indeed bring out potentialities of the earth which remain unexpressed in the
state of wilderness" (9).
Conclusion
Spencer's discussion is an excellent illustration of the common problems
of environmental management. Early perceptions and analyses of potential
persistence of pesticides and entry into the food chain led to in-
31
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tensive regulation. Now, although data are not complete and continual
monitoring is required, Spencer sees evidence that perhaps the pesticides
were not as persistent as originally thought.
He relates advantages of controlled pesticide use emphasizing that
millions of acres may be released for recreational and other uses through
enlightened management.
He also shows that pesticides are now regulated by at least six pieces of
legislation administered by several different agencies.
In this example, then, we see the omnipresent need for research and in-
formation, unifying concepts and systems analysis.
32
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NOTES FOR CHAPTER I
I.Lowe, Jack I. Wilson, Paul D. Rick, Alan J. and Wilson, Alfred J.
"Chronic Exposures of Oysters to DDT, Toxaphene, and Parathion",
Proc. National Shellfisheries Association, 61:71-79. June 1971,
2. Butler, Philip A., "DDT in Estuarian Mulluscs", Bioscience, 2.2(12): let-
ters, 1972. (Note: Full text of the monitoring project has been ac-
cepted for publishing in the March, 1973 issue of the Pesticides
Monitoring Journal).
3. Corneliussen, P.E., "Pesticide Residues in Total Diet Samples",
Pesticide Monitoring Journal, 5(4):313-330. March, 1972.
4. Yobs, Anne R., "The National Human Monitoring Program for
Pesticides", Pesticide Monitoring Journal, 5(1):44-46, June, 1971.
5. Warnick, Stephen L "Organochlorine Pesticide Levels in Human
Serum and Adipose Tissue, Utah—Fiscal Years 1967-71", Pesticide
Monitoring Journal, 6(1):9-13, June, 1972.
6. Abbott, D. C., Collins, G. B. and Goulding, R. "Organochlorine
Pesticide Residues in Human Fat in the United Kingdon, 1969-71",
British Medical Journal, June 3, 1972.
7. Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L. Randers, Jorgen "The
Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the
Predicament of Mankind", A Potomac Associates Book: Universe
Books, N.Y.
8. "Report on 2,4,5-T", A Report of the Panel on Herbicides of the
President's Science Advisory Committee. Executive Office of the
President, Office of Science and Technology.
9. Dubos, Rene J., "Humanizing the Earth", B. Y. Morrison Memorial
Lecture, 139th Annual Meeting, AAAS, Washington, D.C., Dec. 29,
1972.
SUGGESTED READING LIST
1. Buchsbaum, R. and M., Basic Ecology. Boxwood Press, 1957. A
telegraphic presentation of the concepts and principles of ecology.
2. Kormondy, Eugene, Concepts of Ecology. Prentice Hall, 1964. A con-
cise statement with examples of ideas basic to ecology.
3. Leopold, Aldo, A Sand County Almanac, Ballentine Press, 1945. Con-
cise statement of ethics and principles of environmental management,
together with first-hand illustrations.
4. Odum, Eugene P., Fundamentals of Ecology. 3d Ed., W. Saunders,
1972. A basic comprehensive text on ecology.
.33
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2
IMPLICATIONS OF ZERO POPULATION
GROWTH
Introduction
Our population is growing and public perception of environmental quality
and other social problems is focused on our population growth. Public of-
ficials at all levels of government have expressed concern and indicated a
need for action.
Recently the birth rate in the United States dropped to about 2.1 children
per female, less than the replacement rate. We have, at least at this instant
of time, reached the magical Zero Population Growth (ZPG) rate. Even if the
birth rate remains at or below this level for many years, we will not achieve a
Zero Population Growth in absolute numbers. This is so because the
relative number of young women in the population mix is large. As each of
these women bears an average of about two children, the population will
grow. We are also faced with the problem of high concentrations of
population in urban areas. Therefore it is likely we will experience a growth
in population, more intense in urban areas, and must deal with an ac-
companying economic growth and possible environmental degradation
while we also seek to discover new approaches for improving the quality of
life.
The discussions of ZPG, its effect on the environment and implications for
policy are taken from several invited papers. Current population forecasts
are reviewed. Graham Molitor discusses reasons for the decline in fertility
rate. Fred Singer concludes that the fertility rate will remain somewhere
near the present low and presents social, cultural and economic reasons for
his conclusion. Christakis and Molitor Ji -s the trend toward urbanization
and review its social and economic consequences.
The effects of population growth on the environment under conditions of
ZPG rate are outlined by Christakis using a simple model to illustrate the
relationship between population,'population density and pollution levels.
Singer discusses economic and welfare implications of ZPG, outlining a
hoped-for improvement in quality of life which might be possible if the birth
rate remains low.
35
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After reviewing the determinants of resource and environmental pres-
sures. Ridker presents the results of an analysis of the effect of population
growth and current policies on the quality of life, life style, and adequacy of
resources and-quality of the environment.
Ridker concludes that direct methods of achieving an improved quality of
life and environment are superior to indirect methods and less specifically-
stated goals such as Zero Economic Growth and Zero Population Growth.
36
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The Pressure of Population
The world's population is currently increasing at about two percent an-
nually, causing a doubling in population every 35 years. It took two million
years for the earth's human population to reach the one billion mark. This
milestone was achieved in the year 1830. By 1930, merely a century later,
the world population had become two billion. If the current annual rate of
growth of world population were to continue at this pace, the earth would be
home for 12 billion human beings by the year 2030. Just seventy years after
that, in the year 2100, there would be 50 billion human inhabitants of this
small planet!
Von Foerster and his colleagues calculated an equation describing
current worldwide trends of population growth (1). The Von Foerster data is
based on the best estimates of world population over the past 2,000 years.
In simple form, the equation reveals that each successive doubling of world
population has required only half the time as the prior doubling.
This growth process is characteristic only of man as a self-conscious
being. All the advances accruing over the past forty millenia with regard to
individual capacity, understanding, elaboration of social roles, technology,
and human well-being are mirrored in this increase in population. In-
creasing population led to successive environmental crises which served
as stimuli for their creative resolution through the generation of concepts
that permitted linking more people into larger communication networks and
the more effective fabrication of natural resources to meet new demands.
Thus we are led to the conclusion that the overall impact of increase in
numbers has been beneficial. But we are further led to ask the question:
"How much longer can this trend persist?"
For man to survive and to evolve further there must be a sudden shift in
certain aspects of the growth process. Calhoun states forcefully that: "The
guiding of man and nature through this phase shift stands as the basic
issue in the presently emerging environmental crisis" (2). Ameliorating
pollution and stabilizing the biosphere, though they are essential actions,
are insufficient to assure resolution of the current evolutionary-environ-
mental crisis. Graham Molitor comments as follows:
In his Population Message of July 18, 1969, President Nixon stated:
"One of the most serious challenges to human destiny in the last third of
this century will be the growth of the population."
Kenneth Boulding adds: "One of the most difficult problems facing man-
kind in the present historical era is the control of its own population J" (3).
Boulding refers to "population equilibrium" as a critical unsolved problem.
37
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The President also attributed the wrenching dislocations in coping with
problems in the last few decades to the geometrical growth of population
during the last half century: "I believe that many of our present social
problems may be related to the fact that we have had only fifty years in
which to accommodate the second hundred million Americans." (4).
These remarks underscore the importance of current population
pressures. In responding to the importance of the issues posed by
population growth, a Commission on Population Growth and the American
Future was established by Act of Congress and signed into law on March
16, 1970.
The studies published by this Presidential Commission articulate, quan-
tify, and realistically describe the seriousness and pervasiveness of the
world population problem. The ultimate conclusion reached is that
population growth (and perhaps economic growth) must halt because of
finite resources—the only questions are "when, where, and how." (5).
U.S. Population Forecasts
The latest population forecasts for the United States, as estimated by the
Department of Commerce, are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1 (6). Forecasts
are made for four assumed fertility rates as shown in the Figure. The fertility
rates have been revised downward since previous forecasts due to sharp
declines in fertility since 1970 and to the sharp decline in the birth ex-
pectations of young wives during the past five years. Assumptions for mor-
tality rates have been revised slightly and net immigration is assumed to be
400,000 per year.
The assumption of lower fertility rate appears to be justified by recent ex-
perience. For the first nine months of 1972 the rate fell to 2.03. This rate is
below the replacement rate—the rate at which children must be born for the
population to maintain itself. This does not mean, however, that the
population can be expected to level off or be reduced in the near term. The
relative number of young women in the population mix is high, therefore the
population will continue to grow for some time. For example, at a constant
bhih rate of 2.1, the population would grow from the present 210 million to
320 million in 70 years, then level off. At a rate of 1.8, the population would
grow to 260 million in 50 years, then level off. Thus, although the United
States is experiencing a birth rate equal to or less tharr a Zero Population
Growth rate at this instant in time, we will experience a population growth
for some time to come.
38
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Millions of Persons
350-
300-
250-
200-
FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS
(Average Number of
Bi rths Per Woman)
Series C = 2.8
Series D = 2.5
Series E = 2.1
Series F = 1.8
1972
1980
1990
I
2000
2010
2020
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Series P-25, No. 493, December 1972
Figure 1. Projections of Total Population: 1972 to 2020
39
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Table 1. Summary of Projections of Total Population: 1960 to 2020. (Population in thousands. Total
population including Armed Forces abroad)
Year
(July 1)
Estimates
I960
1965
1970
1972
Projections
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
20 1 5
2020
Series C
215,872
230 955
248 71 1
266 238
282,766
300 406
321 025
3/fIj ,fJ94
367 977
392 030
Series D
180,
194,
204,
208
215 32k
228 676
243 935
258 692
272 21 1
285 969
301 397
318 156
•Z7C 028
•jci -568
Series E
67]
303
879
837
213 9.25
224 132
235 701
jkf, 6-?q
256 015
264 4?0
273 053
281 968
oqn I»a9
£yv jfp^
707 -jl-f.
t-Jl , /to
Series F
213 378
221 848
230 9M
O7Q nfiil
245 591
5 en (tftfi
occ onq
t-jy i^-vy
ocq •s^o
•)(.•) (C^l
9Ai» c;A/i
40
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Determinants of Population Growth
The basic determinants of population growth are three: birth rate, death
rate and net migration. Graham Molitor comments as follows:
Of these three factors, by far the least stable is birth rate. During the past
half-century the United States, as well as other countries, has achieved a
fairly constant death rate, based on decreasing infant mortality rates and
relative stability of life-spans. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates net
migration for the U.S. at approximately 400,000 per year.
The birth rate of the United States and other industrialized countries,
then, emerges as the single most important variable in forecasting future
growth, as well as in selecting means to control future population.
The U.S. Birthrate
The factor determining a nation's birth rate is the fertility rate found
within its population. The fertility rate in the U.S. has been steadily declining
as shown in Figure 2. Graham Molitor lists reasons for this decline, as
follows.
—more young women staying single;
—more women starting families later;
—more working wives ("when women are able to work, birth rates
decline");
—more women careerists (in 1971 women accounted for some 43 per-
cent of the labor force; in 1960 the figure was 34 percent);
—increased use and effectiveness of contraception;
Expanding on these reasons Molitor states that a wide variety of ad-
ditional natural and artificial constrictions on family size provides afuller un-
derstanding of this downward shift:
1. Child bearing capacity: Women can bear children for some 30 years
(ages 15 through 45) and may give birth to a maximum of ap-
proximately 20 children (7). Few women, however, produce maximum
broods. Cultural and economic inhibitions and the tendency to marry
later deter maximum sized families. Modern "fertility drugs" and; the
side-effect of multiple births could raise this level somewhat. In other
41
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CHILDREN
PER WOMAN
6 u
3 -
2 -
1 -
0 -
i i i I I I l I
1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
Figure 2. Historical Trend in U.S. Fertility Rate (SOURCE: "Population and
.the American Future: The Report of the Commission on Population Growth
and the American Future," March 1970.)
42
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words, social variables, rather than biological factors, tend to constrict
birth rates.
Techniques for bypassing one mate or the other must be consid-
ered:
—children conceived by artificial insemination (anony-
mous or selected semen donors);
—surrogate (host) mothers (ovum and sperm from anony-
mous or selected donors).
Also to be factored are new life science developments that may
completely bypass normal reproduction:
—human clone (humans grown from "cuttings");
—extra-uterine developments ("ectogenesis," human "hat-
cheries");
—artificial wombs;
—creation of artificial life forms.
2. Females in child-bearing age bracket. Women in the prime child-
bearing age group—females age 20-34—bear special attention, since
4 of each 5 babies born come from this group. Some 25 million women
will be in this age group in 1975; the number will grow to some 30
million women by 1985. The Commission on Population views prime
childbearing ages at 20-29 and predicts that this group will grow 5 1/2
million by 1985. Such increases would exert even stronger upward
pressure on population growth (8). This projected 20 percent growth
pattern will have an upward pressure on population growth.
3. Number of marrieds. The number of married couples is another factor
bearing on population trends. The size of this group "is expected to
rise from 42.3 million in 1965 to 51 million in 1975 to 60 million in
1985" (9). This increase of nearly 50 percent will add to potentials for
population growth. Currently there are unusually large numbers of
young men and women, a result of the post war "baby boom." Naturally
the number of marriages and household formations has been in-
creasing. Despite these facts, the birth rate has been declining and
has actually reached the lowest point in our history.
4. Sexual permissiveness. The "sexual revolution" and growing per-
missiveness in sexual relations and cohabitation between consenting
adults could significantly affect population growth. Women's new
sexual permissiveness made possible by more effective and simpler
contraceptives, sterilization, abortion, and other new technologies en-
courages sex for pleasure rather than propagation. Widespread
availability of inexpensive and effective contraceptives should netralize
the overall impact of sexual permissiveness on population growth.
43
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More permissive attitudes towards homosexuality and lesbianism also
may have some incremental effect on subduing population growth.
5. Age at first marriage. Putting marriage off to later life provides fewer
years for married couples to conceive children and the potential for
population growth is reduced. The higher proportion of children going
on to college and military service obligations contribute to marriage
postponment. Between 1956 and 1967 the median age for marriage
rose from 20.1 to 20.8 years for females, and 22.5 to 23.1 years for
males (10). More current Census figures indicate continuation of the
trend toward postponed marriage—between 1960 and 1972, the
median age at first marriage for women rose from 20.3 to 20.9 years,
and the proportion of single (never married) among women 20 to 24
years old rose from 28 percent to 36 percent (11).
6. Childless couples. The number of childless couples has been
declining. In 1940 23 percent of married women age 30-34 were
childless; by 1960 the proportion dropped to 10 percent and then to 6
percent in 1968 (12). This has an obvious impact on population in-
crease.
7. Unwanted births. Portending further decrease in the "replacement
rate" is the fact some 20 percent of current births are "unwanted." The
1965 National Fertility Study speculated that "elimination of unwanted
births would result in fertility levels ultimately commensurate with near-
zero growth" (13). Given increased acceptance and availability of con-
traceptives and other "emancipating" techniques, it is highly likely that
the fertility rate will decline still further.
7a. Unplanned births. I he Population Commission not only
estimated up to one-fifth of all births were unwanted but that
fully 44 percent were unplanned. If contraceptive
technology applies to anything approaching this extent, the
results on population growth will be most significant.
7b. Illegitimate births. Growing in seriousness and importance
is illegitimacy. In 1967 some 4.5 million children under 18
years were illegitimate. A study in the District of Columbia
disclosed in 1970 that over 40 percent of all births were
illegitimate, and projected the figure would reach 50 per-
cent by 1973. Rates of illegitimacy among young women
ages 15-19 increased 2-3 times between 1940 and: 1968,
Legalized abortion, effective sex education and con-
traceptive technologies doubtless would substantially
reduce these demographics.
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7c. Birth expectations. Wives in the 18-24 year bracket expect
to have fewer births. The average dropped from 2.9 in 1967,
to 2.4 in 1971, to 2.3 in 1972 (14). This decline is a con-
tinuation of a downturn in birth expectations of young wives.
The changed attitude toward smaller families has an impor-
tant bearing on the population slowdown.
8. Smaller family size. Family size has been steadily downtrending
throughout the course of history. During the period of agrarian
development, family size was much larger. At that time high infant mor-
taility rates encouraged additional births, as did the need for manual
labor to perform labor-intensive work in the fields. The 5 member
family was not uncommon. At the time of the Revolutionary War, the 8-
child family was common; in 1850 family size dropped to 6; then to 4
by 1900. Children born to couples in the 1930's averaged 3.3. In 1968
American families averaged 2.7 children. Today in post-industrial
America we are down to the 2 child family. These trends have obvious
effects on population decline.
9. Abortion. Legalizing abortion and widespread social acceptance and
legal recognition thereof will decrease the number of likely births. Con-
tinuing to grow is the notion a woman should have the right of control
over her body. Free abortion in Hungary, reportedly, contributed to the
negative zero population growth in that country. Since 1968 the
estimated number of recorded abortions has increased impressively
(15).
Year Number of Abortions
1968 18,000
1970 200,000
1971 400,000
The Commission on Population estimates in 1971 between 200,000
and 1,200,000 abortions were performed in the U.S. Some com-
mentators view "therapeutic abortions" as an increase in the freedom
of the mother (16). True. But, moral questions surrounding freedoms of
the person conceived must also be considered.
10. Divorce. Marriages that stay together have an important bearing on
population increases. In the first 9 months of 1972, the divorce rate
stood at 4.0 per 1,000 Americans, close to the highest rate which ever
occurred in the U.S.—4.3 persons per 1,000 (17). A related question
concerns remarriage after divorce. Remarriages are far more prevalent
among males than females.
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11. New lower Census projections. Lower birth rate trends have been of-
ficially recognized by Census action in dropping Series B projections
(assumed fertility rate of 3.1) and addition of the new Series F tract.
Hard times like the Great Depression or involvement in World War II,
which depressed birth rates to all-time historical lows, are un-
derstandable. What is truly extraordinary about the present all-time
historical lows for birth rate is that it is occuring during a period of un-
precedented prosperity. Many factors, especially those enumerated
above, should be watched closely to track this trend. Should trends
continue in their present direction, the U.S. will have entered a
population stabilization or even negative population growth rate.
The United States Death Rate
In terms of historical life expectancy, those of us living today are a
privileged group of individuals. Before the birth of Christ, life expectancy
was a mere 18 years. In the United States in 1970 life expectancy has been
extended to 70 years. In less than 2,000 years man has quadrupled his life
expectancy. The following is taken from Graham Molitor's paper.
The following tabulation indicates life expectancy increases in recent
history:
Year Life Expectancy
B.C. 18 years
A.D. 22
1200 33
1600 33.5
1800 35
1850 40.9
1900 49.2
1946 66.7
1960 70.0
It is contemplated that average life expectancy will continue to climb,
though at a slower rate. By the end of the century it could climb 1 1/2 years.
Major breakthroughs in medical sciences could substantially increase this
estimate. The prospect of people living longer has an obvious direct
bearing on further population increases.
Geriatrics
Because of the increased number of older persons, due partly to greater
life expectancy, public policy is likely to focus increasingly on degenerative
diseases manifested in later life. Life expectancy increases will come about
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due in part to development of major medical advances.
A wide range of exotic bio-engineering possibilities for extending
longetivity, rejuvenating or even postponing aging follow:
—Discovery of a cure for cancer, heart disease and other major diseases;
—Better understanding and control of possible health hazards, such as;
smoking, heart disease, air pollution, traffic fatalities;
—Improving medical systems including (computer monitoring of patients;
computer assisted hospital care; closed circuit TV surveillance of
patients);
—Development of immunizing agents protecting against bacterial and
viral diseases;
—Widespread use, low cost availability of artificial organs;
—Easily available electromechanical implants;
—Renewal of organs by chemical, hormonal balance;
—Growing new organs to replace old ones, then storing or "booking"
them until needed;
—Artificial hearts (implanted machines which will not be rejected);
—Postponing aging;
—Human hybernation;
—Suspended animation.
Political problems posed by such exotic developments are substantial.
How to control rackets in transplantable organs; how to determine the point
at which a host full of implants or external assists, or artificial organs ceases
as a legal entity and becomes a new person; how to determine when a per-
son is legally dead, how to determine inheritance rights, continuity of
marital contract, responsiblity for legal contractual arrangements; how to
allocate medical equipment when it is scarce and so expensive as to be
unavailable to all but the rich; how to decide when to unplug persons from
life-sustaining machines if the decision means certain death; how to view
euthanasia.
Potential advances in medical science are mindboggling. Man stands
close to the threshhold of breakthroughs which will have a major impact
upon increasing life expectancy. Breakthroughs of the kinds enumerated
will have a profound effect upon population pressures in the future.
Infant Mortality
In recent years, the U.S. has ranked 16th in infant mortality. This is not an
enviable position for the "most advanced" nation in the world. Once such
quantifiable data is adduced and room for improvement becomes obvious,
these facts become a force for change in their own right. We can expect in-
creased efforts by the Federal government to reduce infant mortality.
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Life Expectancy Factors
Measuring all the factors which bear on life expectancy is an extremely
difficult undertaking.
To underscore the complexity and subtlety of the kinds of data which are
necessary to get a "total view" of such parameters, consider the partial
listing of factors which might give a more sophisticated and holistic view of
the national health and provide insights on the calculus of computing life
expectancy: heart disease incidence; protein consumption; fat and sucrose
consumption; caloric consumption; cancer incidence; poisonings; levels of
radiological hazards; environmental hazards (toxic levels of gases, etc);
decibel levels; infant mortality; preventive health rates; violent crimes; men-
tal health average exercise; dental health; number of eye glasses and
related eye disorders; consumption of selective drugs.
Such a list could go on and on. It is only partially elucidated to indicate
the very complexity fully describing the nature of any particular facet of
qualitative measurement. We already have volumes of such data. We need
merely to collect it, aggregate it, interpret it, and develop a through-going
and searching assessment of our current position based upon this quan-
tifiable data.
Net Immigration
Net immigration into the United States is expected to continue at present
levels of about 400,000 per year, according to the Census Bureau and im-
migration officials. The demographic impact of immigrants is important
because a high percentage of immigrants are in child-bearing prime and
may be more likely to have larger families. From 1960-65, net civilian im-
migration averaged 364,000 yearly—twice the average of the 1940-9 era
Around 1900, immigrants per TOGO population stood at eight; around 1970
the rate had sunk to two immigrants per 1000 population—a fourfold reduc-
tion. Immigration is likely to be stabilized for the forseeable future—Con-
gressional action to enhance immigration is less likely than action to restrict
immigration.
Will the U.S. Maintain a ZPG Birth Rate?
Singer believes that the present low fertility- rate is not a temporary
phenomenon but is a permanent change in the family pattern of our
population. The sociological, economic and technical reasons, given by
Singer are discussed, below.
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First of all, there is the increasing level of education which, in addition to
allowing more effective contraception, also opens up to women other op-
portunities and other career goals rather than that of a housewife and
mother.
Coupled with this is the greater affluence of the average American.
During 1972 the median family income exceeded $10,000 per year, com-
pared to $3300 in 1950. Even taking inflation into account, real income has
more than doubled in a little more than 20 years. The proportion of families
considered poor by the criteria that the U.S. government uses has
decreased sharply; from 18 percent in 1959 to 10 percent in 1968, and
may be expected to decrease further.
Not only has family income increased, but so has the income of women.
To a large extent the changes have been legal and political as well as
cultural and social. Rights legislation, the Equal Employment Opportunities
Commission, and increasing acceptance of women into higher paying
positions have had two effects. They have increased the income of women,
but also opened up new prospects and increased expectations. Since large
families and professional careers are not easily compatible, it is very likely
that the incentive for larger families will be reduced.
A further change which appears irreversible has been the increased ur-
banization of the American population. In a rural environment the in-
cremental costs of children are fairly small since they require little ad-
ditional housing, and purchased food. In an urban environment, housing
and maintenance can become quite costly. In a rural environment children
provide a labor force—or at least did in past years in the United States, and
still do in many countries. In the city, children do not have economically
useful functions and usually need to be totally supported.
Increased social programs, such as social security and medicare for the
aged, have removed to some extent the insecurity which many people feel
concerning their maintenance in old age. In turn, this diminishes the need
for children and other relatives who in the past have provided support for
their parents.
A lower infant mortality may also be connected with a lower fertility.
Having reasonable assurance that children will survive to adulthood,
couples place less emphasis on a large family.
Altogether there has been a decline in pronatalist sentiments and
policies. Whereas at one time large families were the source of general
societal approval, this is no longer so. Families with six or more children
are looked on as somewhat odd, and those with more than 10 or 12 are
regarded with social disapproval. Unfortunately these social views have not
as yet translated themselves into governmental policies. For example, we
still have a pronatalist tax .policy, although it is only mildly so. More serious,
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perhaps, is the fact that the costs of raising children are borne more and
more by society as a whole, rather than being incident on the parents who
derive pleasure from the child but few of the disbenefits.
We need to recognize, of course, that fertility may be determined to a
large extent by fashions and fads.
One wonders to what extend our current environmental and ecological
concerns are responsible for a lower fertility and to what extent the
existence of ZPG groups throughout the country has influenced fertility.
Such a correlation may exist, but it is not necessarily rational. The en-
vironmental and ecological concerns may translate themselves into a lower
fertility because of a perception that we have too large a population. This is
based on experience of local crowding, on air pollution and water pollution
which is observed in the urban environment, and on the rapid urbanization
of countryside in the vicinity of metropolitan centers. Traffic snarls,
inadequate parking, and similar annoyances produce an impression that we
have at least exceeded optimum population concentrations for portions of
the United States. We may have, but on the other hand, we may not have. All
these items are really evidence of a poor distribution of population, of poor
planning, expecially in the field of transportation and land use, and of
inadequate abatement of pollution.
But whether the arguments are rational or not matters little. The effects
may be there, and they are certainly in the direction of diminishing fertility. A
powerful impulse towards smaller families comes from the awareness of en-
vironmental and ecological problems, as well as from the realization that
certain resources, such as fossil fuels, open space, wilderness areas,
beaches, etc. may be finite after all.
Overall, one would judge that there have now appeared irreversible
trends which have affected the decisions of millions of individuals towards
having smaller families. These decisions are based on the expectation that
thereby they will derive a higher quality of life, although their definition of
"quality of life" is never spelled out and depends on individual perception.
Nevertheless, it is remarkable that the sum total of these millions of in-
dividual decisions can result in -a societal situation leading to zero
population growth and a situation in which societal welfare as well will be
benefited—in addition to individual welfare. In essence, people who are at-
tempting to maximize their personal happiness may in the process also im-
prove the state of societal economic and social welfare.
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Urbanization of Population
Christakis points out another dominant trend that needs to be seriously
acknowledged. This is the dynamic evolution of human settlements into
continuous urban systems. Some observers, such as C.A. Doxiadis, believe
that urban areas may merge into a continuous universal city or
"Ecumenopolis":
"(Ecumenopolis) is the inevitable future of Human Settlements in the
next few generations, as we can foresee that, assuming we avoid any
major catastrophe, we will have to deal with a universal city whose
population will tend to be stable in numbers but increasingly more
developed intellectually and socially, which will dispose of much
greater quantities of energy and achieve greater social interaction"
(18).
The trend towards the Ecumenopolis is particularly dominant in emerging
post-industrial societies such as the United States. The metropolitan area
growth of the United States has been consistently more rapid than the in-
crease of national population during the 20th century. Measured as a per-
centage of national population, metropolitan areas in 1960 contained 66
percent of the nation's population. By 1970 this percentage had increased
to 71 percent of the national total. This meant that the United States was
transformed from a country that was 60 percent rural in 1900 to one that
was more than 70 percent urban in 1970. By the year 2000, based on
trends of 1940-1970, 85 percent of the nation's population is projected to
reside in major metorpolitan areas.
The most startling feature of projected population growth and distribution
is that the majority of Americans will most likely live in giant metropolitan
regions along the seaboards and the Great Lakes. In 1960, the United
States contained 23 great metropolitan areas of one million or more people,
each amounting to a total population of 68.2 million—38 percent of the
national total population. The 1970 census reveals that the number of such
metropolitan areas has risen to 29 and the population residing in
metropolitan regions to 89.3 million or 44 percent of the national total. If
these trends are extended to the year 2000, the proportion of the population
residing in metropolitan regions of one million or more will amount to 65
percent (under the series B projection of the U.S. Bureau of the Census,
amounting to 321 million people by the year 2000), residing in 50 such
targe urban agglomerations.
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Effects of Urban Overpopulation
In discussing the effects of urban overpopulation, Molitor says there is a
growing body of evidence that animal overcrowding produces psychotic
behavior. Fruit flies do over populate to extinction in Bell jars; lemmings do
take periodic death plunges into the seas.
Sheer density has undersirable effects on social behavior. In dense ur-
ban-industrial areas, behavioral responses to overcrowding may help ex-
plain exploding criminal behavior, increasing group disorganization, even
the growing incidence of mental disorders. Instead of a "nice to have
luxury," there may be a biological necessity to relieve urban environmental
pressures and to restore (19):
—quiet (freedom from excessive noise pollution);
—privacy (limits on invasion by electronic surveillance, systematic com-
puterized data collection, etc.);
—independence (mechanisms to relieve system breakdown from over-
dependence);
—initiative (constricted by the mob's crush);
—open space (green belts, recreation areas).
Population policy is increasingly becoming a public concern. Population
policy once largely left to undirected decisions is "now on the verge of
becoming a public concern, as a result of the dangers of overpopulation
and the possibilities of avoiding them that are inherent in new birth control
technologies" (20). One of the central problems is that there is no precise
method of determining "optimum population."
Though environmental hazards posed by urban-industrial density are
substantial, caution should be taken to avoid over-reacting. Current mood
and sentiment verges on an "alienation hysteria" (21). The Population Com-
mission final report cautions -that, "An attitude of indifference of com-
placency (toward population growth) is unwarranted; so is the cry of early
catastrophe and crises."
Christakis summarizes changes in life style brought about by the shift to
urban living. He states that urbanization has caused major economic,
social, and environmental changes for both the receiving metropolitan
areas and the people left behind. As recently as the turn of the century,
some 35 percent of America's workers were involved in agriculture. Today
only 4.4 percent of the labor- force is employed in agriculture and that figure
is projected to decline to two percent by the year 2000. Employment in
goods-producing industries such as manufacturing, construction, and
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mining has also been continuously declining relative to the total em-
ployment since the 1950's when the post-industrial or service economy
emerged. Around 1956, the service-producing industries (trade, finance,
services, real estate, public utilities, transportation, and government) took
the lead over jobs in the goods-producing industries. When this happened,
the U.S. became the first nation in the history of the world where the number
of manual or blue-collar workers was exceeded by the so-called white-
collar occupations. It appears that the policy implications of this shift have
not yet been completely analyzed and explored by policy scientists.
The continuous eclipse of traditional industrial pursuits, i.e., agriculture
and manfacturing, and the rise of the service-producing industries within a
continuously growing metropolitan population, bring on a whole array of
significant shifts that will profoundly affect the business structure, our daily
life styles, and our value systems. Some of the basic shifts that are well un-
der way are:
• From primary and secondary industries (agriculture/manufacturing) to
tertiary and quaternary industries (service, knowledge activities).
• From goods to services.
• From goods/services produced by muscle power to those produced by
machines and cybernetics.
• From the materialistic to the sensate.
• From "things" to experiences.
• From physiological to psychological needs.
• From scarcity to abundance and eventually to super abundance.
• From a few stark choices to a bewildering array of choices.
• From durability to disposables and planned obsolescence and back to
recyclables, reclaimables.
• From self-interest motivation to a broader social and humanitarian out-
look.
• From independence and self-sufficiency to interdependence.
• From individual freedom, to voluntary restraints, to mandatory restraints.
• From Puritan hard-work ethic to leisure as a matter of right.
• From Darwinian self-survival to humanistic security.
• From atomistic to large-scale pluralistic institutions.
• From national to multi-national and "one-world" scale operations.
• From decentralization to centralization and eventual globalization.
• From irrational chaos to futures-creative long range planning.
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Can Man Adapt to Urban Living?
Molitor believes that living organisms and even man-made institutions
have a tendency to specialize and proliferate to the point where extreme
demands bring on ultimate demise—entrophy. Catastrophic collapse
brought about by over-population, or any other excess, can be postponed
or avoided altogether by adaptation. Adaptability—thai has been the secret
of man's mastery over the environment.
On the European Continent during the 14th century, as large urban cities
emerged and grew, the Bubonic Plague wiped out some 25 percent of the
entire inhabiting population (22). Man was unprepared. Adapting the
human organism to large social complexes tested the mettle of then-
existing technology and organizational skills. The stakes, literally, were life
or death. Man did adapt Sanitation and public health measures were
developed and prevented epidemic spread of communicable diseases.
Natural growth limits for organisms depend upon the ability of getting rid
of wastes—"this is what limits the size of a colony of bacteria on a nutrient
surface" (23). In urban-industrial complexes limitations are similar. Ad-
justment is necessary if large-scale populations in urban industrial areas
are to thrive.
Today, new adjustments to the giant-sized urban industrial habitats man
has created are required. There are suggestions that man's physical health
may be jeopardized by ecological imbalances in overly-stressed en-
vironments.
Man is what he consumes, and he consumes (24, 25):
—3 pounds of food solids;
—4 1/2-6 pounds of water;
—30-60 pounds of air.
Substantial changes in urban air and the water supplies have come about
since the industrial period onward. Considerable evidence indicates that
physical health itself may be imperiled by changes in the air we breathe, the
water we drink, and the new environment. The peril will increase and unless
appropriate corrective measures are taken, over-population and over-indus-
trialization may over-tax ecologically balanced systems.
Developing knowledge suggesting population density may create disrup-
tive social and psychological stresses, and that confrontations with air and
water pollution are becoming increasingly hazardous, may be evolutionary
handwriting on the wall.
One commentator suggests that genetic science may provide a means for
"fitting men" to the environmental conditions—"fitting of the survivors," in-
stead of survival of the-flffest (26). Thus, instead of aiming our efforts at
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changing environmental factors, science and public policy could accept en-
vironmental circumstances and merely adapt man to cope with his changing
environment. In all likelihood, both adaptation of the human organism and
environmental adjustments will be required for survival.
Buckminster Fuller poses the following statistics implying man's num-
bers are manageable and that the population explosion is overstated (27):
—man lives in "scattered patches covering less than 5 percent of the
earth's surface";
—"all the cities of our planet cover sum-totally less than 1 percent of the
earth's surface";
—megalopolises cover less than one-half of 1 percent of the earth's total
surface."
Dramatically making his point, Fuller contends that as of 1965, "all
humanity could be brought indoors in the buildings of greater New York
City, each of us with as much floor room as at a cocktail party."
That is one cocktail party I hope to miss!
Census Bureau domestic calculations based on the 1970 Census,
estimate distributing U.S. population equally over all 50 states would result
in a density of about 57 persons per square mile. Similar calculations
based on 1960 data estimated 50.6 , • per square mile. New Jersey
with 953.1 persons per square mile was the most densely populated state;
Alaska, with some 2 persons per square mile was the least densely
< populated (28). Population density based on 1970 Census data for all ur-
banized areas (central cities over 50,000 population) was 3,376 persons
per square mile (29).
Regardless of the validity of these statistics, they underscore the point
that urban density is the real crisis point. In this respect, the most populous
metropolitan areas in the world—Shanghai (10 million), Tokyo (8.8 million),
New York (7.9 million), Peking (7.5 million), and London (7.4 million)—are
the cauldrons of change. The full force and effect of population implosions
in these areas should be carefully studied to ascertain prospects for
mankind. As other areas reach similar size and density, they should be able
to benefit from experience in these precursor jurisdictions.
Environmental Effects of Population Growth
From the information presented in the previous section, it is clear that the
U.S. population will continue to grow, even if the birth rate remains at or
below the ZPG rate. Further, shifts in the regional population distribution,
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especially moves to urban areas, will create urban and regional population
pressures. As the national and regional populations grow and change, the
respective economics will grow and change.
The resource and environmental consequences of a growth in population
and economy are not totally predictable. The state of the science of
demographics is such that we are not certain to what extent, and in what
directions. The U.S. population and economy will grow, especially over the
long-run. As we have seen, there is considerable evidence that the nation
has achieved a ZPG rate, though this is offset by other factors, such as the
high incidence currently of young women capable of bearing children. Fur-
ther, should a ZPG rate be achieved, can it be maintained?
Nevertheless, it is possible to arrive at close approximations of the effect
on the environment—particularly on the nation's natural resources—of any
specified growth pattern. Given the assumption, then, that the U.S. is about
to experience, or has experienced already a ZPG rate, what can be said
about its effect on the environment?
A Classical Model for Environment and Population
Christakis presents a simple classical model of the environmental impact
of population and concludes, from study of the model, that uncontrolled
growth can cause serious environmental damage even under conditions of
ZPG. One of the principal reasons for this conclusion is population density,
i.e., urbanization. He also discusses results obtained by analysis with
another model.
Christakis' model is developed from a relationship of the form (30).
W = APq (1)
where
W = pollutants emitted during a period
P=total population of a geographic entity
q = per capita output
and A = a proportionality constant.
To transform the quantity W to a spatial concentration C of pollution, or
what is normally known as pollution levels, one must introduce the volume V
of the medium in which the wastes are placed. One also needs to take into
account the natural ability of the environment to cleanse itself through
various biochemical processes. Hence, the rate of change in concentration
at a point in time t will be the sum of what is added to the environment and
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what is subtracted because of the cleansing, i.e.,
dC/dt=(W/V)-rC (2)
where r is the rate at which the particular medium cleanses itself. By in-
tegrating Equation (2) and setting the integration constant equal to K one
obtains, after substitution from Eq. (1),
C = (APg/Vr)(1-exp(-rt)) + K exp(-rt) (3)
The adverse environmental impacts, or damage D, can be considered as a
function of concentration C, i.e.,
D = f(C) (4)
Our present state of knowledge of the functional form relating environmental
damage to population and output (i.e., the feedback effects) is very limited.
Also, the positive and negative synergisms that might exist between dif-
ferent pollutants at different levels of concentration is not yet known.
Following a simple analytic approach, the per capita damage d is set
proportional to the concentration C, the proportionality constant B itself
being assumed to be a monotonically increasing function of the con-
centration of pollutants,
d = BC = f(C)C (5)
The total damages, D, can then be represented by
D = BCP (6)
Substitution of Equation (3) leads to
d = (AB/Vr)(1-exp(-rt))qP + BK exp(-rt) (7)
and
D = p((AB/Vr)(1-exp(-rt))qP + BK exp(-rt)) (8)
Defining a "volume" population density p=P/V, one can rewrite Equations
(7) and (8) as
d = (k/r)(1-exp(-rt))qp + BK exp(-rt) (9)
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and
D = p((k/r)(1-exp(-rt))qp+ BK exp(-rt)) (10)
where K is in general a coefficient whose numerical value depends on the
concentration level and the amount of capital invested in pollution
abatement facilities.
Equations (9) and (10), although very approximate and simplistic, enable
one to make a number of useful observations concerning the environmental
impacts of such factors as (1) the size of the population, P; (2) the
geographic distribution or concentration of the population, p; (3) the amount
of production (or consumption) per capita, q, i.e., the "affluence" variable;
and (4) the amount of pollutant generated per capita of production (or con-
sumption) k, which is essentially a variable reflecting technology and
abatement policies. One can see, for example, that the damage to the en-
vironment D increases in proportion to the population P, the per capita out-
put q, and the population volume density, p. If per capita output and
population density are held constant, Equation (10) tells us that pollution is
directly proportional to population. But if population were held constant,
pollution could just as well increase, either because of increases in
population volume density, or because of increases in per capita output.
Hence, in this simple formulation, one is led to the conclusion that "un-
controlled" affluence, and "unplanned" metropolitanization of population
can cause environmental damage even at zero population growth
(assuming no fundamental changes in production and pollution
technology). It is noteworthy that such a simplistic analytic model has con-
firmed our intuitive knowledge of the gross relationships between
population, economic growth, and environmental degradation.
The accuracy and reliability of the simple analytic model leading to
Equation (10) is limited. Realizing this limitation, the Commission on
Population Growth and the American Future commissioned Resources for
the Future (RFF) to develop an elaborate and highly disaggregated com-
puter model for the purpose of analyzing the environmental impacts of alter-
native population and economic growth projections (31). The RFF approach
consists essentially of an industrial input-output model coupled to
exogeneous information derived on the basis of four alternative
demographic and economic scenarios: high population and economic
growth (Census Bureau series B-High GNP), low population and economic
growth (Census Bureau series E-Low GNP) and the two intermediate cases
(B-Low and E-High). For each one of the four scenarios the model
calculates: (1) the main economic indicators, (2) estimates on resource
requirements, (3) estimates of pollution levels under different assumptions
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regarding abatement policy and available technology and (4) the regional
and metropolitan area impacts of air pollution.
Employing this model the RFF study arrives at a number of policy-
oriented findings. Some of the most conclusions are paraphrased below
(32):
(1) For the time horizon of the study, i.e., the next 30 to 50 years, the
changes in technology, tastes, institutions, policies, and international
relations will play more important roles than population growth in
determining resource adequacy and environmental quality.
(2) For the time horizon of the study, a change in population growth ap-
pears to have a smaller impact on resource consumption than a
change in economic growth. A one percent reduction in population
would reduce consumption of resources in the year 2000 by 0.2 to 0.7
percent, whereas the equivalent percentage reduction in per capita
GNP would reduce consumption in that year by 0.6 to 3.5 percent.
(3) The United States appears to be in good shape relative to other coun-
tries, provided we have sufficient lead time to develop domestic alter-
natives to foreign sources, should the need arise. A slower population
growth rate leading to a stable population within the next 50 to 75
years, will buy us time to overcome our ignorance of ecological
processes and expand our options in deciding how we want to live in
the future; a slowdown in population and economic growth would
clearly help in this respect by giving us sufficient lead time.
(4) The relative position of the poorer two-thirds of the world is likely to
deteriorate further during the next 30 to 50 years unless some
dramatic technological breakthroughs, rapid declines in birthrates, or
massive transfers of resources from richer countries take place.
(5) While there is mounting evidence that environmental quality is lower in
metropolitan areas that are more densely populated, the underlying
causes for the lower quality may not be scale but factors such as: urban
forms and transportation systems more appropriate to an earlier era;
old, unintegrated service facilities; inappropriate pricing of public
facilities and common property resources such as roads and waste
disposal; multiple political jurisdictions; and the factors leading to
inadequate financing and a predominance of minority groups and poor
in the core cities.
Christakis points out that models such as the one described above
should also provide for analysis of social issues. Later we will present his
suggestions for methodology to achieve this end.
59
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Economic and Welfare Implications of ZPG
Singer has developed a different demographic-economic model (33).
This model calculates a "per-capita welfare index" or a "Q-index" as a fun-
ction of various demographic and economic parameters. In the following,
Singer discusses the implications of a situation of increased welfare in
which all members of society have some money left over for discretionary
spending.
If we can maintain our level of population near optimum, then it appears
that each generation will become better off than the preceding one. In fact,
maintenance of optimum population may mean, and almost certainly will
mean, a declining level of population, but declining at a very slow rate.
The burning question, of course, centers on how people will choose to
spend their income. In essence, we are really asking what life styles will
people adopt for the future. There are, of course, several possibilities and
any one of these, or any combination, may hold true. It would be useful to
list these possibilities in order.
1. More Leisure. People may choose to take their greater welfare in terms
of more leisure time. We have existing trends that show not only fewer
working hours per week and fewer working days per year, but also
fewer working years per lifetime. People today retire at an earlier age
and also enter the labor force at a later age then they did some
decades ago. There is no reason to expect that this trend will not con-
tinue, although, leisure, like every other good, has a decreasing
marginal utility. By this is meant that the first hour of discretionary
leisure time is much more valuable than each succeeding hour;
beyond a certain point leisure time may not be very worthwhile to some
people. These points have been considered in the model.
2. More consumer goods. In the future, it is quite likely that people will
spend more on luxury goods. Such goods include second homes, third
homes such as vacation cottages, beach houses, etc., vacation trips of
more elaborate dimensions.
3. More services. Spending on a variety of services is one of the
strongest existing trends and has also been incorporated in the model
calculations. Naturally, it cannot continue forever, that is, services can
never constitute 100 percent of all expenditures. We cannot run a
country or the world by taking in each other's laundry. But we can cer-
tainly lavish a great deal of effort on such items as better health care,
specialized education, cultural activities, as well' as visits to
psychiatrists.
60
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4. Finally, the model considers the possibility of increasing public invest-
ments, not only in conventional public works designed to improve the
working of the economy, such as highways, flood control projects,
irrigation projects, etc. but also in environmental quality and con-
servation projects. These investments by their very nature have to be
made through government, i.e. on a collective basis, with everyone
contributing through tax payments, and presumably everyone
benefiting somewhat in the relation to the payment of taxes.
As for any investment, public investment raise the question of cost-
benefit analysis. Not only is it necessary to quantify the benefits (it is usually
quite easy to quantify the costs) but there are additional and very serious
problems when most of the benefits accrue to future years and perhaps to
future generations. We know that a benefit today is worth more than one in
the future, quite apart from any inflationary trends which can presumably be
accounted for. We can take a benefit today, expressed in dollars, and invest
this sum of money and arrive at a larger value in the future, simply because
it has been invested.
One of the consequences flowing out of the results of the model
calculation is the greater availability of funds for investments of all sorts
because of greater discretionary income. Under a situation where capital
becomes less scarce, it is possible to think of a situation of lower interest
rates as well. But a lower interest rate, a lower return on invested capital,
also means an enhanced value for future benefits. Under these conditions,
it becomes attractive to consider diverting larger amounts of investments^
into projects which will yield benefits beyond the immediate ones, and
benefits even into the far distant future.
Essentially, we are saying that with larger discretionary income there will
be a larger propensity to invest in projects that benefit future generations,
as well as in projects that lead to enhancement of current recreational bene-
fits.
Under these conditions, it is possible to visualize an effort through
political action to increase levels of environmental quality, both by setting
higher standards, as well as by undertaking restoration projects. Not only
does it become worthwhile and profitable to undertake such major
programs as soil conservation, and control of agricultural pollution,
separation of urban sewer systems into sanitary and storm sewers, dealing
with acid mine drainage, but large scale restoration projects, also become
more feasible: restoring the quality of the Great Lakes by appropriate
remedial measures, restoring natural areas and wildlife habitats, reforestra-
tion, and reclamation of stripmined land, etc.
61
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To sum up: with a projected increase in discretionary income we can look
forward to a simultaneous increase in a number of unrelated activities:
more leisure will be taken, more luxury goods will be bought, more services
will be required, and large scale public programs will be undertaken not
only to protect but also to improve our physical and social environment.
Resource and Environmental Consequences of ZPG
Ridker discusses the resource and environmental consequences of
population and economic growth and the results of the RFF study men-
tioned in a previous section. In his discussion, particular emphasis is
placed on the effects of ZPG. He reviews the determinants of resource and
environmental pressures. Then he presents the consequence of growth as
determined in the study using the RFF model and comparing those results
with results obtained from more detailed and conventional studies of
specific factors such as energy and agriculture. Population forecasts for
high birth rate (Bureau of Census Series B; birth rate 3.1) and low (ZPG)
birth rate (Series E; 2.1) were combined with several levels of economic
growth. The new series F forecast, of course, was not available at the time of
the study. His discussion is presented in the next section.
Determinants of Resource and Environmental Pressures
To begin, we must identify the factors that are most influential in deter-
mining resource requirements and environmental pressures. Changes in
any of these determinants can significantly alter the nation's requirements
for natural resources and they can just as significantly affect the quality of
the environment. These determinants are usefully grouped under seven
headings:
—Demographic variables. The size of the population, its rate of growth,
its age structure, the number and size of the households involved, and
the labor force participation rates: all have a bearing on the resources.
They directly affect the level of consumption goods purchased, the
types of goods purchased, as well as the level of economic activity we
can expect from the population. This economic activity, of course, is an
important determinant of fhe output of materials we can expect.
—Standard of living. Measured by per capita GNP or per capita income,
the standard of living plays a similarly important role in determining the
output of materials. Moreover, the distribution of the standard within the
population is a separate, but related, factor of great importance.
—Geographic distribution. The distribution of the population and of the
nation's economic activities bear heavily on resources and the en-
62
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vironment. They are obviously important in explaining environmental
pressures in given areas. They affect the cost—in terms of natural
resources—of efforts to overcome these environmental pressures.
Transport requirements between persons and producing units in
various places exert further resource and environmental pressures.
—Technological methods. The methods used at each stage of economic
activity, from mining and energy conversion through transport and
production, to emission and treatment of effluents, can make a great
difference in the character and magnitude of the problems we will face
as a consequence of population and economic growth.
—Life styles. The role of life styles—preferences for leisure and for
various kinds of commodities and ways of using them—reflect directly
on the state of the environment and on the availability of natural resour-
ces. Certainly, a style of life that includes throwaway bottles, suburban
living and high compression automobiles places vastly more pressure
on the environment than does one that involves less emphasis on
packaging and advertising, urban apartment living, and mass transit.
—International considerations. A sixth set of factors, which is sometimes
overlooked but which is likely to play an increasingly important role in
the future, pertains to international developments. In particular, the
terms at which the United States can acquire resources and finished
commodities from abroad are crucial in environmental and resource-
availability considerations.
— Policy. Finally, all the above factors are influenced by policy: by rules
and regulations for managing effluents and land use, by important
policies with respect to fuels and minerals, by decisions made with
respect to location of public investments, and so on.
Population
At the outset let us recall that under any reasonable assumption about
births-per-women during the next few decades, the population of the United
States will grow quite substantially during the next quarter to half century. If
ZPG is taken literally to mean a cessation of population growth, we are still
far from achieving it. There are three reasons for this. First, the United
States has a relatively young population, with a large fraction of women just
entering childbearing years. Even if these women decide to have no more
than the 2.1 children necessary for replacement, this age structure will
result in population growth by nearly 40 percent before stability is reached.
Second, to achieve ZPG immediately, U.S. women would have to have an
average of only slightly more than one child for some decades into the
future, at least until the age distribution corrects itself. While it is true that
63
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fertility and expectations about completed fertility among young women
have fallen sharply in the last five years, the most recent survey on birth ex-
pectations reports that women 18-24 expect to complete their childbearing
years with an average of 2.1 children, a far cry from the 1.2 or so necessary
to achieve immediate ZPG. Put in terms of birth rates, to achieve ZPG and
sustain it over time the crude birth rate would have to fall from 16 to less
than 10 per thousand and remain there for some decades, an event that ap-
pears highly unlikely in the near future. Third, all the above ignores net im-
migration which has been set by law at 400,000 per year. This figure is
more than 20 percent of the natural increase in population in recent years.
There is no reason to believe that it will decline in the near future.
What has happened in recent years is a decline in fertility and fertility ex-
pectations that sets the stage for the ultimate achievement of ZPG, or
something very near it. Between 1957 and 1969 the total fertility rate has
steadily fallen; the five-year averages from 1955-59 through 1965-69 being
3.69, 3.46, and 2.63. Today, this figure probably stands at around 2.1.
Standard of Living and Life Style
While it seems quite likely that life styles will change significantly during
the next half century, it is not at all certain that they will be in the direction of
conserving on resources, unless official policy dictates such a course.
Consider the preference for savings over consumption. The personal
savings rate might rise if with growing opulence and fewer children we
become sated with goods and services, or if we channel increasing por-
tions of our incomes into housing (for example, second homes). But the ex-
pectation of routine prosperity and economic security guaranteed through
extensions of unemployment, health, and old age and survivors insurance
is likely to dampen individual incentives to save. So too would the per-
sistence of secular price inflation. Increased leisure would also operate in
the same direction, increasing consumption especially of recreational
goods and services. On net these trends may mean less personal savings.
But this is a trend that can be offset by business and government savings
behavior. Provided we are willing to let businesses and government save
for us, long-term growth prospects need not be seriously affected by this
shift in preferences.
So far as shifts in preferences among types of goods are concerned,
there seems to be some evidence to indicate a shift from private to public
goods and services, and within each category from goods to services.
Since cross-section consumption studies indicate that the income elasticity
of demand for services and many types of public expenditures tends to be
higher than for other kinds of goods, there is some reason to believe that
such shifts will continue in the future as incomes rise. But a large fraction of
64
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public goods involve construction and a significant component of what are
called consumer services involves transportation, both heavy users of
resources, especially of energy.
A significant shift in preference for leisure over work could have a major
impact on resource requirements, at least so long as this shift is not offset
by increased automation that results in more goods to be enjoyed during
the increased leisure hours. In recent years, work hours per year have
ceased their slow, long-term decline. In addition, increasing numbers of
women have been entering the labor market. One possible explanation is
the need for additional income in the face of the price inflation of recent
years. But these changes seem to be independent of family income. In-
deed, often it is the wives of well-off husbands who appear most eager to
give up leisure for work. An alternative explanation may be that for many in
our society work has ceased to be considered a "bad" to be avoided to the
extent one's income permits. Perhaps, over time the workplace is offering
increasing numbers of nonmonetary as well as monetary benefits: a
pleasant physical environment, interesting, "meaningful" things to do,
friends, status, respect—and sufficient on-the-job leisure to take advantage
of these opportunities. As machine-paced labor is replaced by more
automated processes, and as jobs for more intrinsic interest increase in
number, this phenomenon is likely to become more and more important. So
far as the economy and resource needs are concerned, the result is almost
the same as if off-the-job leisure increased, except that it shows up as a
decline in man-hour productivity rather than as a decline in work hours or
labor force participation rates.
To account for these possible changes in preferences, the following
assumptions are made: no change in the overall propensity to consume and
save, a continuation in the trend towards services and public goods, and
shifts in the composition of consumer purchases that arise from changes in
the numbers of families in different age, income, and family size classes.
Two alternative assumptions about labor productivity and work hours can
then be considered. First, man hour productivity can be assumed to con-
tinue growing at 2.5 percent per year and annual work hours to decline by
0.25 percent per year, more or less on trend. As a second alternative the ef-
fect of a decline in work hours by 1.0 percent per year can be considered.
While still far from a zero economic growth case, the shift towards leisure
implied by this second, low economic growth case is fairly dramatic: in-
stead of weekly work hours falling over a thirty-year period from 40 to 37 in
the high growth case, they would fall to 29 in the low growth scenario.
It should be noted that the equivalent low growth case can be generated
by assuming a fall in the growth of manhour productivity to 1.5 percent per
year while holding to the first assumption about annual work hours. Con-
65
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sidering the possibility of on-the-job rather than off-the-job leisure in-
creasing, this may be more realistic; but in no way does it change the
analysis.
Technological Changes
Five types of technological changes should be distinguished. The first,
overall changes in labor productivity, has already been considered. The
others involve changes in materials used per unit of output, changes in the
generation of residuals per unit of output (or per unit of materials input),
changes in the emission of wastes per unit of residuals generated, and
changes in pollution per unit of wastes.
So far as materials other than energy used per unit of output are con-
cerned, the trend has been distinctly downward. Twenty years ago a ton of
peaches would produce 40 cases of canned fruit; today 55 cases can be
produced from one ton. In addition, the composition of materials has
changed dramatically, energy and capital substituting for labor, cheaper
materials substituting for higher cost minerals, chemical fertilizers and
pesticides substituting for land and natural manures. There is no reason to
believe that such changes will not continue in the future, although the par-
ticular direction they will take is difficult to predict.
In general the amount of wastes generated per unit of materials input has
also been improving. For example, in 1943, the production of container
board generated 0.45 tons of waste per ton of final product whereas by
1963 this figure had dropped to 0.21. For the economy as a whole it is dif-
ficult to generalize because of the introduction of new processes, products,
and materials over time.
The third type of technological change, changes in the emission of
wastes per unit of residuals, has to do with the extent of recovery and
recycling. Here the picture is mixed, the trend since World War II involving
less recycling of waste paper and more recycling of a number of metals.
The principal factors influencing these trends are changes in the
geographic distribution of the sources of wastes—for example, subur-
banization trends that make collection of waste paper more costly—and
relative prices which are, of course, subject to influence by government
policy. Considering the fact that the incentives for recycling and recovery
have been few in the past, it seems quite likely that there is considerable
scope for improvements in these directions.
The last category of technological change involves the form in which the
wastes are emitted. In large part, this has to do with pollution treatment
technology, but change in production processes can also have a significant
effect on the toxicity of the wastes. Over time, as the'chemical industry has
learned to synthesize compounds not found in nature, and hence in general
66
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not readily assimilated by plants and animals, the situation has worsened.
Treatment technology, however, has been improving and with the proper in-
centives can be expected to continue improving.
The projection of this mixed bag of effects is, of course, very difficult to
project without introducing technological fixes that may never happen, one
must figure it very conservatively, permitting ongoing changes to work their
way out but not introducing much that is new. Ongoing substitution of one
material for another in particular uses—e.g., plastic for metal in pipe
production—are permitted to continue up to some specified maximum; and
today's best practice is assumed to become the average practice in each
industry by the year 2000. But new processes, substitutions, and products,
with both their good and bad effects, have for the most part been left out.
Geographic Distribution
By now the principal trends in distribution of population and economic
activities are well known and documented: the emptying out of the coun-
tryside, the rapid territorial spread of metropolitan areas, and the reduction
in population densities in many central cities. A continuation of these trends
is likely Jo result in an increase in the percent of the population living in
metropolitan areas from 71 percent in 1970 to 85 percent in the year 2000
and an increase in the geographic area classified as urban from 200
square miles in 1960 to 500 square miles by 2000. By the latter date, this
would mean that one-sixth of the land area of the United States (exclusive of
Alaska and Hawaii) would be devoted to urban settlement (34).
But these trends are heavi.ly dependent on a number of policies. While it
is difficult to predict whether densities will increase or decrease in the
Washington, D. C. metropolitan area as a consequence of the introduction
of both a subway and a frequently proposed tax on downtown parking, there
can be no doubt that such changes will have profound effects. To account
for such changes, at least insofar as air pollution is concerned, several
alternatives to this basic trend have been considered, one requiring that 10
percent of the additional economic activity that might otherwise locate in
metropolitan regions be located outside these area, another restricting the
geographic spread of current metropolitan areas, and so on. Several of the
results obtained are presented in the analysis.
International Developments
Unfortunately, far too little time has been devoted to the study of in-
ternational trends of importance for the United States. Basically, the Bureau
of Mines "high" projections for minerals and energy consumption in the
rest of the world can be accepted at face value and it can be assumed that a
relatively free trade regime would prevail. This could give quite misleading
results, especially so far as the energy picture is concerned.
67
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Policy Changes
In order to highlight the effects of population and economic growth, in
most of the basic scenarios studied the policy regime is assumed to be
constant as of about 1967-70. But several variations of an "active
abatement policy" were also explored and are reported on below.
The Consequences of ZPG
The implications of these determinants and our assumed changes in
them over time were examined in two ways: first using a mathematical
model of the economy designed to highlight the resource and en-
vironmental elements under study, and, second, comparing these results
with those obtained from more detailed and conventional studies of specific
sectors such as energy and agriculture. Those results that are most salient
for the discussion of policy and research implications are presented below.
The Economy
To simplify the task, four basic scenarios were developed from the set of
alternative assumption with which we worked: a high population-(Bureau of
Census Series B) high economic growth (denoted H) case (B-H), a low
population (Bureau of Census Series E)-low economic growth (denoted L)
case (E-L), and the two intermediate cases. We started by assuming no
change in resource or environmental policy from the base period. Table 2
presents the results.
As can be seen, by the year 2000 the. U.S. economy will be somewhere
between double and triple its current size, with all that entails for resource
and environmental pressures. A slowdown in population growth will help, of
course: it results in a higher per capita income and a smaller GNP, that is,
greater per capita material welfare with a smaller output of materials. But
even with a significant shift towards leisure—and despite the shift towards
services built into these projections—it is clear that we shall face much
greater resource and environmental pressures in the future than we have so
far.
Resource Adequacy
Figure 3 presents a picture of the total amounts of five of the 19 minerals
studied that are needed to achieve these basic scenarios between now and
the year 2000. The bars representing an "active recycling policy" reflect
our judgment about the additional amount of recycling (over and above what
was already present in the base period) that should be feasible given
current technology and proper incentives. For these minerals, as well as for
the others studied, the slowdown in population growth is not as effective in
saving on resources as is a reduction in economic growth; but the com-
bination of both plus an active recycling policy can achieve a considerable
68
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Table 2. Demographic and Economic Indicators for Alternative Population
and Economic Assumptions, No Policy Change.
Indicator
GNP Per Capita (1967 $)
Disposable Income Per
Capita (1958 $)
GNP (fail. 1967 $)
Consumption (fail. 1967 $)
Investment (bil. 1967 $)
Government (bil. 1967 $)
Defense (bil. 1967 $)
Non-Defense (bil. 19&7 $) . . .
Net Exports (bil. 1967 $)
Total Output (bil. 1967 $)
Primary (bil. 1967 $)
Mining (bil. 196? $)
Construction (bil. 1967 $)..
Manufacturing (bil. 1967 $) .
Food (bil. 1967 $)
Paper (bil. 1967 $)
Petroleum (bil. 1967 $)...
Chemicals (bil. 1967 $) . . .
Primary Metals (bil.
1967 $)
Rubber and plastics
(bll. 1967 $)
Stone and Clay (bil.
1967 $)
Textiles (bil. 1967 $)....
Lumber and Wood (bil.
1967 $)
Leather (bil. 1967 $)
Services (bil. 1967 $)
Electricity (bil. 1967 $) .
Consumption Purchases
(bil. 1967 $)
Durables (bil. 1967$)
Nondurables (bil. 1967 $)...
Services (bil. 1967 $)
1970
205
85
62
3937
2595
807
524
99
186
62
124
-3
1326
84
22
57
585
93
22
26
45
44
14
14
25
12
4
600
19
524
52
128
344
Absolute Figures
2000
B-H
321
136
106
8125
5399
2608
1704
341
579
97
482
-17
4174
207
59
181
1776
214
73
60
152
122
54
48
69
43
14
2009
72
1704
207
333
116.4
E-H
266
127
101
9098
6018
2420
1577
309
548
102
446
-15
3843
192
57
164
1628
198
66
62
142
111
48
43
60
39
10
1858
66
1577
188
313
J<*
B-L
321
136
106
6452
4241
2071
1339
278
468
88
380
-13
3334
174
49
148
1437
184
58
51
120
100
43
39
52
34
11
1575
58
1339
159
278
902
E-L
266
127
101
7218
4721
1920
1237
252
442
92
350
-11
3064
161
47
133
1316
170
53
52
112
90
38
35
46
31
7
1454
53
1237
144
261
832
2020
B-H
440
186
145
12661
8650
5571
3747
688
1170
149
1021
-33
8900
406
119
382
3689
405
155
115
321
251
117
101
140
92
31
4424
163
3747
478
667
2602
E-H
299
146
113
14625
9848
4373
2899
551
948
158
790
-25
6933
318
100
296
2877
312
119
105
254
197
88
79
102
71
20
3442
127
2899
362
525
2012
B-L
440
186
145
8632
5804
3798
2514
492
813
128
685
-22
6124
297
87
274
2587
306
107
87
218
180
80
74
89
63
20
2966
114
2514
314
482
1718
E-L
299
146
113
9946
6558
2974
1930
400
659
133
526
-16
4747
231
72
209
2012
234
82
76
173
140
60
56
65
49
12
2295
88
1930
236
377
1317
a% Increase from B-H
SOURCE: U.S. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, Population, Resources.
and the Environment. Ronald G. Ridker, editor, Vol. 111 of Commission Research
Reports (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1972), adapted from
Table 2, p. 41.
69
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5000-
ifOOO-
3000_
2000.
1000.
BH EH BL EL
IRON
n
300 -
200 -
100 -
Base Period
Recycling
Act!ve Recycli ng
Pol icy
III!
BH EH BL EL BH EH BL EL BH EH BL EL BH EH BL EL
ALUMINUM COPPER LEAD ZINC
*From U.S. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, Population, Resources and the
Envi ronment, op. cit., p. 97.
Figure 3. Cumulative Requirements for Five Metals, Basic Scenarios With and Without Active
Recycling Policy, 1968-2000 (million tons).
-------
saving. Unfortunately, at this juncture we could not evolve a clear idea of the
cost in economic or environmental terms involved in this much recycling.
Figure 4 presents a picture of annual energy requirements. Because it
assumes only modest changes in energy technology from the base
period—an assumption that is rapidly becoming outdated—the breakdown
by fuels is probably not very significant. For example, gasification of coal
will probably be necessary before the turn of the century to meet some of
the natural gas requirements. But the breakdown does indicate in general
terms the extent to which we shall continue to be dependent on petroleum.
When these requirements projections are matched against supply
projections for the United States and against demand and supply projec-
tions for the rest of the world, the principal conclusion that emerges is that
the United States is not likely to experience any truly serious shortages
during the next quarter to half century solely as a consequence of
population and economic growth. By "serious shortages" are meant shor-
tages that would cause the relative price of a significant number of these
minerals and fuels to increase by more than 50 percent or so. Other factors
may of course come into the picture to upset this conclusion, a point that
must be amplified later. Environmental groups may refuse to permit the con-
struction of a sufficient number of nuclear or other electric power plants or
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may successfully im-
pose monopolistic control over a large fraction of the world's petroleum
supplies. But strictly as a consequence of population and economic growth
in this country and perhaps also in the rest of the world, the United States is
likely to be able to find the necessary supplies to meet rising demands
without price increases of such a magnitude that the general welfare is
endangered.
Pollution
Figure 5 illustrates our findings with respect to a number of different
pollutants. The bars labeled A represent the amount of various pollutants
generated in 1970 and likely to be generated in the year 2000 under alter-
native assumptions about population and economic growth. The bars
labeled B in 1970 indicate the amount of these pollutants emitted, the dif-
ference between A and B indicating the small amount of treatment present
in that year. The bars labeled B in the year 2000 indicate the amount of
various pollutants likely to be emitted in that year assuming the same level
of treatment as in 1970 but taking into account the changes in technology
that are likely to come along even in the absence of an active abatement
policy. In principle, such technological changes could result in either a
higher or a lower level of residuals per unit of output; in fact, however, most
of the changes investigated reduce residuals. To a large extent, this result
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Figure 4. Annual Requirements for Energy, Basic Scenarios. (Source:
"Population, Resources, and the Environment" op. cit, p. 43.)
225 -,
200 -J
175 J
150 J
125 -\
100 J
75 H
50 H
25 H
(Quadri11 ion Btu)
1970
B-H E-H B-L E-L
2000
KEY
Coal
Natural
Gas
Petroleum
Hydro
Nuclear,
Other
72
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1970
2000
BILLION
POUNDS
300
200-
100.
0.
HIGH POP.
HIGH GNP
LOW POP.
HIGH GNP
HIGH POP.
LOW GNP
LOW POP.
LOW GNP
PARTICIPATES
1»00
HYDROCARBONS
Q
Pollution generated
assuming 1970 technology
associated with pollution.
(Technological changes
resulting in substitutions
amongst inputs--e.g.,
plastics for metals--are
included.)
300
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Pollution emitted in
1970 and in 2000 assuming
changes in pollution
generation coefficients
and efficiency of treat-
ment likely to come along
even without .an active
abatement policy.
,Emissions in 2000
assuming use of production
and treatment processes
induced by an active
abatement policy.
Active abatement in
this case means secondary
treatment which has no
appreciable effect on
dissolved sol ids.
Figure 5. Pollution Generated and Emitted Under Alternative Assumptions
73
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arises from the assumption that best practice in 1970 becomes average
practice by the year 2000; while this assumption by itself is very con-
servative, we purposely left out new processes and products that might
come along to raise new problems.
To arrive at the bars labeled C representing an active abatement policy,
EPA's recommended emission standards for 1975 were applied. While it
appears likely that the technology will exist by 1975 to meet these stan-
dards, we applied them in the year 2000, by which time, at least from a
technological point of view, it should be possible to surpass them.
As far as can be judged the cost of meeting these standards does not ap-
pear excessively expensive. In 1970, the annualized costs of pollution
abatement were estimated by EPA to be $8.45 billion (1967 dollars), about
one percent of GNP. To meet the emission standards implied by this active
abatement policy, it is estimated that these costs will have to rise to bet-
ween $34 billion (for the case E-H) and $47 billion (for the case B-H) by the
year 2000 (all figures in 1967 dollars). While these are, very large num-
bers, they still amount to less than two percent of GNP in the year 2000. To
make room for such expenditures we would have to give up less than one-
tenth of one percentage point in annual growth of GNP. Once again,
however, there are some qualifications which must be brought up again in
discussing policy implications.
It should be noted, however, that the pollutants that were studied for the
most part have relatively short half-lives. Because of data and other
analytical problems, radiation, heavy metals, persistent pesticides, and
similar pollutants that can accumulate in the environment over time were not
studied in as much depth.
Regional Problems
A second qualification to the analysis of pollution problems arises from
regional concerns: some regions could face serious problems even though
they achieve the 1975 emission standards. To determine whether this is the
case, regional projections were developed, for three air pollutants in 47
cities and applied to a general air diffusion model.
Table 3 summarizes the results for a special case in which the land area
of each city expands in proportion to its population increase, thereby
keeping density constant. As can be seen, a growing number of cities will
not be able to meet the ambient standards without the active abatement
policy (35).
For these two areas, both of which are already above the nitrogen dioxide
standard, something must give: the use of the internal combustion engine,
inmigration of people and activities or the standard itself. While
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Table 3. Number of Cities Among 47 Studied Not Meeting Specified Ambient Standards
S02 (80 micrograms)3
S0£ (60 micrograms)3
N02 (100 micrograms)3
Particulates
(75 micrograms)3
Particulates
(60 micrograms)3
1970
2
4
36
36
M
2000
No Pol icy Changes
B-H E-H B-L- E-L
2311
6645
41 43 41 42
27 32 15 19
42 43 32 37
Abatement Pol icy
B-H E-H B-L E-L
0000
0000
2322
0000
0000
aAnnual arithmetic mean in mierograms per cubic meter
SOURCE: U.S. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, Population,
Resources, and the Environment, Ronald 6. Ridker, editor, Volume I I I of
Commission Research Reports(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1972), Tables 10, 11, and 12, pp. 52-56.
75
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Washington, D.C., was not included among the 47 urban areas in this sam-
ple, a recent study suggests that the same situation applies here as well. It is
likely that more detailed studies of other metropolitan areas and other
pollutants will provide additional cases of this sort.
If we assume that urban land area expands less rapidly than population,
the situation worsens rapidly. On the other hand, when in one run of this
model it was assumed that 10 percent of the additional economic activities
that would otherwise have located in these urban areas were instead
required to locate in nonurban areas, the situation improved only
marginally, reducing the number of cities not meeting the sulfate standards
from two to one and the number not meeting particulate standards from 27
to 17, while those not meeting the nitrate standard remained the same.
A final point of interest about these regional projections is their great
diversity. Population density is increasing in some while it is decreasing in
others. For sulfates in 1970, the highest average concentration level for any
city is six times that of the lowest. Even with an active abatement policy,
some areas will grow worse over time while others improve. Moreover, the
trend is not the same for all three pollutants: particulate levels are likely to
fall in a number of cities even without an active abatement policy while
nitrate levels are likely to worsen in some even with such a policy.
The Policy Implications of Zero
Population Growth
It appears obvious that the historical trend cannot continue in which
successive doublings of world population require only half the time of the
prior doubling. Still, it is possible for the world population growth to con-
tinue at a slower rate of increase than at present for many years, subject to
the constraints of food production, availability of energy, and availability of
natural resources. An earth population numbering as many as 35 to 50
billion has been considered possibly by some forecasters.
As we have seen, the world population could be stabilized into a ZPG
state at some desired level, as one alternative. Or, a phase of declining
population or "negative population growth" could ensue. A third alternative
is that of continued growth.
Calhoun considers these alternatives from the viewpoint of the "evolution
of consciousness." (See Chapter 6.) It is his contention that if ZPG is the
choice, the capacity of the individual human will stay as constant as the rate
of population increase itself. There will be no further evolution of con-
sciousness; evolution for humans will have been terminated. It will be all
over except for a "continuous hedonistic traditionalism."
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Other animals have had this choice thrust upon them and have persisted
for millions of years. Calhoun notes the same possibility for humans, but
warns that only through our own intent and deliberate actions can we alter
the pattern and allow the evolution of our consciousness to continue.
During the current domain of evolution, the total worth of humanity has
progressed according to the product of the population and the capacity (or
consciousness) of the average individual. This total worth of humanity,
which Calhoun terms "ideomass", has steadily increased, despite the fact
that the "biomass" (or product of population and average body weight)
became constant.
If population is allowed to increase to the limits possible, according to
Calhoun, then the average individual would become less aware of less and
less, until most individuals had dropped below the level of consciousness
required for initiating cultural evolution.
Policy and Research Implications
Ridker discusses two implications for policy and research. He believes
direct measures for dealing with resource shortages and pollution are
superior to the indirect measures of population control and control of the
economy. Secondly, he suggests that more comprehensive approaches to
problem solving should improve our environmental situation with less social
and economic cost. His discussion follows.
Direct versus Indirect Approaches
It has become commonplace in the last few years to hear calls for ZPG
and ZEG (Zero Economic Growth) as ways to contain the encroachment of
man on,the earth's limited supplies of raw materials and environmental
carrying capacity. In contrast to measures like zoning, effluent charges, and
mass transit, such policies would operate indirectly on our resource and
environmental problems. They are said to be necessary because the direct
measures are only palliatives, attempting to correct the symptoms rather
than attacking the main causes.
So far as population growth is concerned there is little argument. Even if
there were no necessity for such growth to cease, its continuance provides
us with no social advantages and a number of costs at this stage in our
history. But the same cannot be said about economic growth which, with ap-
propriate changes in composition, can be utilized so solve many of the
problems it creates. The question of whether it must also cease is of more
interest.
There can be no doubt that all population and economic growth must
someday cease. Exponential growth in a limited space cannot continue
forever. Technological advance can postpone that ultimate day, but it cannot
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repeal the laws of nature. But this fact by itself is of little rerevance. Far more
important is the question, when? Must it cease within our lifetime, that of our
grandchildren, or some far-off distant generation? It makes an enormous
difference for policy today how we answer this question.
Unfortunately, the information does not exist with which to answer this
question, except to say that there is no reason why it must cease within the
next 50 years or so. Beyond that point, we must admit ignorance. We do not
know what kind of disasters we may be letting ourselves in for by permitting
economic growth to continue; but we are also ignorant of possible
technological and institutional breakthroughs that may come along not just
to save future generations from disaster but perhaps to make them sub-
stantially better off than the current generation. For the time being,
therefore, we can still choose whether to slow growth down as a way of
coping with our problems or to rely on more direct attacks on the problems
that face us.
Within this fifty-year time frame, our analysis strongly suggests that as
policy instruments for dealing with raw materials shortages and pollution,
direct measures are far superior to across-the-board restrictions on
population and economic growth. The clearest indication of this is found in
Figure 5 which compared the reductions in pollution that might be achieved
using direct and indirect approaches. Other examples can be found by
comparing the amount of reduction in GNP per capita that would be
necessary to curtail the emission of a given pollutant, say sulfur oxides, by a
given amount, with the extent of the reduction in GNP per capita that would
occur as a consequence of a more selective approach. Analysis indicates
that a one percentage point reduction in GNP per capita would reduce this
pollutant by 0.87 percent, but that if the output of the five sectors with the
highest emission coefficients were reduced by 2.5 percent this same 0.87
percent reduction in sulfux oxides could be achieved with only a third of a
percentage point reduction in GNP per capita. An even more dramatic
example would involve a direct attack on the automobile, which by itself ac-
counts for 12 percent of hydrocarbon emissions, 60 percent of carbon
monoxide emissions and 25 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions from all
manmade sources. The same argument applies to resources, at least to
resources in general: given the substitution possibilities that are present,
why reduce the consumption of all resources because a few are in short
supply?
Of course, such direct approaches will result in some slowdown in
economic growth. But with the exception of a few especially vulnerable
regions, the extent of this slowdown is not likely to be great during the next
quarter to half century. Beyond this period, it is possible that measures
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which bite more heavily into aggregate economic growth will prove
necessary. But that is as it should be. So long as other options are
available, including the option of changing the composition of growth, there
is no sense in limiting aggregate economic growth until we have to.
Piecemeal, Restrictive Measures
versus Structural Changes
A more difficult issue involves the question of which direct measures to
use. All that Figure 5 suggests is that we have the technological know-how
to reduce future emission levels at reasonable cost, despite the population
and economic growth that will occur in the interim; it does not say that
policies can or will be devised to accomplish such reductions. This would
not be the first time that we accomplished far less than we know how to do.
Most of the measures in use today, especially in the environmental field,
can be characterized as restrictive in character. The imposition of standards
that must be met by a future date is perhaps the best example. Even effluent
charges, or full-cost pricing, which for good reasons most economists favor,
are restrictive in the sense that the person faced with the charge is induced
to restrict his own behavior to reduce the burden of these addititional costs.
While it is somewhat more difficult to characterize resource policy in this
same way since subsidies for research and exploration are also part of the
scene, it is certainly the case in both the resource and environmental fields
that most of our policies are not integrated into any overall framework that
considers all the ways of skinning the cat and all the consequences of
doing so by different methods. To illustrate the kinds of problems that can
arise from such piecemeal, restrictive approaches, we take an example
from the energy and urban transport fields, first considering the resource
and then the environmental sides of these interrelated problems.
On the basis of the assumptions incorporated into the study, there appear
to be adequate supplies of petroleum to meet the world's needs during the
next half century or so, if not considerably beyond, One might be inclined to
predict from this that our current energy system based on liquid petroleum
fuels can continue for some time to come.
But it is not difficult to make a case to the contrary. Consider a few of the
problems the United States will face in the energy field during the next 10
to 15 years. Suppose that the OPEC cartel becomes stronger and decides
to set its long-term price on the basis of the costs of producing alternative
sources of petroleum in the United States, rather than in relation to its much
lower costs of production. The choices for the United States would involve
reliance on imports—with all the attendant balance of payments, political,
and military risks that would entail—attempts to break the cartel through the
application of colonial policies—which we as well as the Europeans may
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have lost the will if not also the capacity to adopt—or efforts to reduce our
long run dependence on foreign oil. Most likely the United States will try to
opt for this latter course.
But the production of oil from offshore sources, tar sands and shale, will
involve serious environmental problems, problems that will not be resolved
cheaply, quickly, or to the satisfaction of many local groups with the power
to hold up developments. On the basis of this scenario, either en-
vironmental concerns will be subverted or the lifespan of our liquid energy
system will be short, despite the existence of adequate worldwide supplies.
The alternatives on the supply side are to develop coal gasification, and
nuclear, solar, and geothermal sources of electricity. Some of these alter-
natives raise new kinds of environmental concerns, perhaps the most
serious being the need to store highly lethal, radioactive wastes from
breeders in ever-increasing amounts for literally thousands of years. But in
any event, unless significant changes occur in our transport system, the ex-
tent to which gas and electricity can be substituted for liquid fuels will be
quite limited. Sooner or later we shall have to look for alternatives on the
demand side, that is, alternatives which reduce our need for liquid fuels. If
we do so by restrictive means, for example, by permitting the price of fuel
oil and gasoline to rise significantly, considerable hardships will result for
an extended period of time, until structural changes in our transport system,
commuting patterns, and the layout of cities are forced to occur. If we an-
ticipate these structural changes, at least by building them into all new ur-
ban developments, many of these hardships can be ameliorated.
A similar conclusion emerged when the study focussed on the en-
vironmental problems of a number of regions. At least two urban areas in
the sample of 47 will not be able to achieve the ambient standards set by
EPA, solely through the use of emission controls on internal combustion
engines; and more detailed studies of other cities and pollutants are likely
to provide additional examples. The standards may be too stringent and
should be relaxed. But when we add in the problems of auto congestion
consequent on the growth of populations in urban areas during the next half
century, it seems highly probable that restrictions on the use of the private
automobile in many central cities will be necessary in any event. Once
again, planned structural changes in city form, commuting patterns, and
mass transit systems will be required to achieve an orderly and timely tran-
sition.
The principal purposes in presenting these examples are to demonstrate
the need for more comprehensive approaches to the problems we face and
to suggest a situation in which more resource conservation and en-
vironmental improvement may be possible at less economic and social cost
through planned technological, institutional, and urban design changes
80
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than by the application of the more traditional approaches of regulatory
agencies. The latter may ultimately induce the same changes, but the social
cost of doing so is likely to be much higher. Of course, to apply this ap-
proach one must know in advance just what structural changes are needed,
and then must find some way to implement them.
Research Implications
Given the above discussion and our obvious ignorance about the con-
sequences of alternative courses of action that may profoundly affect our
lives, many research needs practically suggest themselves. Comments
here are limited to just five points which are more in the nature of caveats
than specific suggestions for research, but which nevertheless are quite im-
portant in the formulation of detailed projects.
Long-term comprehensive planning. There can be no doubt about the
need for careful, interdisciplinary study of the kinds of problem sets
discussed above, where questions of resource adequacy and en-
vironmental quality overlap and are mediated by developments in fields as
disparate as international politics and urban design. Often, the researcher's
response to problem sets of this kind is to suggest more comprehensive
simulation models.
The principal problem with such models is that we know exceedingly lit-
tle about physical, biological and social responses to changes in en-
vironmental and other factors we wish to study. Before our level of con-
fidence can be increased to the point where such models become more
useful in the policy formation process; vastly more information on basic
relationships is needed.
This is true even in the environmental field, narrowly defined. What, for
example, is the relationship between a given rate and duration of effluent
emissions into a water body and ambient concentrations of resulting
chemical compounds in that body; what is the relationship between such
concentrations and effects on plant and animal life associated with this
water body; once man is directly or indirectly affected, how will he adapt to
these changes; and how is he likely to assess the costs of such changes in
his environment and adaptive behavior? Similar and vastly more difficult
questions can be asked about behavioral relationships in other fields that
should be included in such comprehensive models.
It will be along time before an acceptable level of confidence can be
placed in many of the critical relationships. How can we satisfy the need for
comprehensive, long-term planning in the interim? Perhaps the only thing
that can be done is to rely on the judgment of mature and experienced per-
sons, who come to these problems with a certain frame of mind: a
willingness to consider and obtain expert advice on all important factors
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that can impinge on the problem, no matter in what field or specialty they
occur, the ability to maintain a sense of proportions about the relative im-
portance of these factors and the usefulness of various tools of analysis.
Technological development. Many of the constraints we are facing can be
significantly pushed back in time by technological developments. But in
many of the fields we are concerned with, these developments will not oc-
cur without public support and stimulation. Until recently, for example, there
has been little if any interest on the part of private business in the develop-
ment of alternatives to the internal combustion engine, alternatives to our
dependence on petroleum, or technological and institutional systems for
economical recycling, recovery and waste treatment. If these developments
are to occur in a timely fashion, the Federal government will have to rethink
its research priorities and provide significantly greater stimulus to
technological developments, especially in the field of energy, than it has so
far. Agencies concerned with environmental quality should, quite obviously,
play a major role in this process.
Environmental consequences. As these technological changes occur,
priorities for study of environmental consequences must also change. If
some of the above judgments are correct, it is none too soon, for example,
to devote far greater efforts to the study of the environmental problems of
shale, tar sands, and coal gasification, the suggestion of standards and of
methods for the control of these problems. Nor is it any too soon to consider
the technical and institutional implications of the requirement to store vast
quantities of nuclear wastes in perpetuity, should the decision be made to
opt for the fast breeder on a large scale.
Experimental approaches. To obtain the behavioral relations that are
necessary, complete reliance cannot be placed on empirical observations
drawn from past experience or from cross-section studies; in many cases,
we simply do not have past experience to draw upon. How, for example,
can we estimate the behavioral response to a significant increase in taxes
on downtown parking when commuters have not been faced with such a tax
in the past? In such situations, the only way to obtain reliable information
may be to encourage demonstration of an imposed tax and observe the
results.
Admittedly, this approach raises extremely difficult practical problems.
But there are a few areas in which this approach is currently being used,
and with imagination it might be extended to others. A few experiments in
the use of alternative fuels are under way; so too are some pilot programs
testing out alternative systems of mass transit. These activities can and
should be encouraged on a much greater scale. It should be possible to ex-
tend this approach to the development of alternative methods for
establishing and implementing effluent charges and other monetary in-
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centives in the environmental field. For example, local citizens groups
representing all interested parties could be established to fix rates which
would be subject to revision, upwards or downwards, depending on how
they were working, to meet standards for environmental quality (laid down
nationally or locally).
Institutional Implications. While the study reviewed above does not direc-
tly suggest many institutional implications, two suggestions can be raised in
conclusion.
First, problems can be cut down to manageable size by splitting them up
into their functional parts and dividing responsibility, or by treating them in
smaller geographic areas. In the case of many environmental problems
many of which must be handled in a fairly comprehensive way, geographic
subdivision makes especially good sense. The great diversity we observed
above in the experience that urban areas face and will increasingly face in
the future lend weight to this suggestion. So too does the problem of ap-
propriately reflecting the preferences of all interested parties in making
decisions about zoning and other aspects of environmental quality.
What we have in mind is the establishment of regional environmental
management agencies, with fairly comprehensive authority to set standards
above certain national minimal levels, to levy charges, to guide and
schedule the use of land, water, and air with respect to pollution emissions,
and to the extent possible within certain overall guidelines, to reflect the in-
terests of all relevant parties. At a minimum, such a region should en-
compass a whole metropolitan area, rather than just the central city or major
suburbs within the region. I believe that a good start has recently been
made in developing new institutions along these lines; it should be en-
couraged and promoted.
The second point is that consideration of the problems and prospects in-
volved in this country's long-term future convinces most researchers that an
important dimension of policy formation is being overlooked. This dimen-
sion involves the identification, study, and initiation of actions with respect
to future problems that may require lead times of decades rather than years
to resolve. There is a need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of the
long-term implications of demographic changes, of future resource demand
and supplies, of possible pollution overload situations and of the underlying
trends in technology and patterns of social behavior that influence these
factors; and once future problems are identified, there is a need to un-
dertake the necessary research and development and formulate the
policies to resolve them. While parts of these tasks are being performed by
isolated agencies,"coordination and analytical assessment on a broad level
is lacking, Most government agencies are of necessity present-oriented or
mission-oriented and sometimes do not serve these functions adequately;
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nor can they be left to ad hoc commissions as we have tended to do so far.
Thus, we conclude, there would seem to be a need for a small, strategically
located public agency to serve as a "lobby for the future," with the respon-
sibility for undertaking long-term strategic planning for the nation.
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Notes for Chapter 2
1. Von Foerster, H, et al, "Doomsday: Friday 13 November, A.D. 2026",
Science, No. 132, 1.960.
2. Calhoun, John B. "Environmental Design Research and Monitoring from
an Evolutionary Perspective." Paper prepared for Environmental
Protection Agency.
3. Boulding, Kenneth E. "The Meaning of the 20th Century: The Great
Transition," Harper & Row, N.Y., 1965.
4. "Population Growth and America's Future." Commission on Population
Growth and the American Future, March 1970.
5. Fuller, Buckminster, "Utopia or Oblivion? The Prospects for
Humanity", Bantam Books, N.Y., 1969.
6. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, "Projections of the Population of the United
States by Age and Sex: 1972 to 2020", Series P-25 No. 493, Decem-
ber, 1972.
7. Brown, Harrison "The Challenge of Man's Future", The Viking Press,
N.Y., 1954 .
8. "Population Growth & America's Future", Commission on Population
Growth and the American Future (Interim Report), March 1970.
9. Ibid.
10. Sehaller, Lyle E., "Impact of the Future", Abingdon Press, Nashville,
1969.
11. "Population Characteristics: Birth Expectations and Fertility," U.S.
Bureau of the Census, June 1972.
12. Sehaller, Lyle E. op. cit
13. "Population Growth & America's Future," op. cit.
14. Train, Russell E., Speech delivered to Los Angeles World Affairs
Council, March 29, 1972.
15. The Futurist, Vol. VI, No. 6, December 1972.
16. Thompson, William I., "At the Edge of History: Speculations on the
Transformation of Culture", Harper and Row, N.Y., 1972.
17. The Futurist, op. cit.
18. Doxiadis, Constantinos, "The Future of Human Settlements", Nobel
Symposium Paper, Stockholm, 1969.
19. Theobald, Robert, "Futures Conditional", The Bobbs-Merrill Company,
Inc., 1972.
20. Mesthene, Emmanuel G., "Technological Change: Its Impact on Man
and Society". New American Library, N.Y., 1970.
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21.Traviss, Irene, "Our Tool-Making Society1', Prentice-Hall, Inc., Engle-
wood Cliffs, N.J., 1972.
22. McHale, John, "The Changing Context for Management", The Con-
ference Board, N.Y., 1972.
23. Kahn, Herman and Bruce-Briggs, B., "Things to Come; Thinking About
the Seventies and Eighties," The Macmillan Company, N.Y., 1972.
24. "Ecology: The Man-Made Planet", Kaiser News, 1970.
25. Fuller, R. Buckminster, op. cit. .
26. Thompson, William I., op. cit.
27. Fuller, R. Buckminster, op. cit.
28. "U.S. Population Density Increased by 7 Persons Per Square Mile,
1970 Census Shows," U.S. Bureau of the Census Press Release, June
22, 1971.
29. "Fifty-Eight Percent of U.S. Population in 248 Urbanized Areas, Cen-
sus Shows," U.S. Bureau of the Census, Press Release, Feb. 22,
1972.
30. This illustrative formulation follows Ronald G. Ridker, "Population and
Pollution in the United States", Science, June 1972, p. 1085; Also,
Paul R. Erlich and John P. Holden, "impact of Population Growth",
Volume III of the Population Commission Research Reports, Washing-
ton, D.C.: GPO, 1972.
31. Ridker, Ronald G., Editor. Vol, III of the Population Commission Re-
search Reports. Washington, D.C.: GPO 1972.
32. Ridker, Ronald G. "Resource and Environmental Consequences of
Population Growth in the United States", GPO, 1972.
33. Singer, Fred S. "The Environmental Implications of Zero Population
Growth." Paper prepared for Environmental Perfection Agency.
34. "Population and the American Future", U.S. Commission on Popula-
tion Growth and the American Future, Washington, D.C., 1972.
35. In the E-H case, Philadelphia will also be above the standard in 2000.
The fact that the E-H case presents more regional environmental dif-
ficulties than do the other cases results from a combination of factors
the most important of which is the assumption that land area expands
in proportion to population.
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3
ANALYSIS OF ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY
Introduction
An ecosystem is a set of living things and their environment. The system
concept emphasizes the interdependence and interrelatedness of all
elements of the ecosystem. The term and concept can be applied to
systems of any size. A pond, a region or the complete biosphere can each
be studied as an ecosystem. Whatever the size, an ecosystem has finite
limitations. The natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, available
to sustain life in any period of time are limited.
When we apply the ecosystem concept to a geopolitical region we see
that the natural resources available to produce goods and services, Gross
Regional Product (GRP), are limited. Given the inevitable population
growth, accompanied by some economic growth discussed in the previous
chapter, we see that ultimately some limit must be reached. Whether this
limit is near or whether we should be concerned about a doomsday, we
dont't know. We do know that the public demands a high quality of life. This
requires use of resources not only for goods and services but also for in-
tangibles and amenities. Planners and decision-makers must address the
problems of providing material goods and amenities to growing
populations.
In the past the concept of carrying capacity has been defined as the
ability of a region to sustain some population, usually a specific animal
population. In this Chapter, we will apply the concept in a broader sense.
We define carrying capacity as the ability of the natural resources of a
region to provide material goods and services and amenities to a human
population while maintaining some acceptable quality of life. With this
definition carrying capacity analysis becomes a tool for planners and
decision-makers to evaluate alternative goals and plans.
The discussion of carrying capacity analysis is taken from the invited
paper by E. K. Peterson. He presents a method for establishing a ben-
chmark standard for quality of life and evaluating alternative combinations
of population, GRP and lev'els of pollution control. Using first approximation
numbers, the concept is applied to the Pacific Northwest.
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The carrying capacity analysis presented by Peterson is an example of
the multidisciplinary analysis required to determine the relationships
among the many factors influencing the environment and the Quality of Life.
The need for such methodologies was discussed in the Study of Critical En-
vironmental Problems (SCEP) sponsored by MIT in 1970. The major fin-
dings of this study are presented, in summary form, to introduce Peterson's
paper. The "Spaceship Earth" concept is also described in the introductory
material. This popularized model illustrates the finite limitations of our
resources and the interdependence of all elements of the biosphere—facts
of life which can be dealt with by means of analyses such as presented by
Peterson.
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Ecology of the Biosphere
The Study of Critical Environmental Problems was sponsored by MIT in
1970 as a means of providing information for the 1972 U.N. Conference on
the Human Environment and for other environmental activitiesd). A total of
115 scientists, representing many disciplines, participated in the study. The
major conclusions and recommendations of the study are presented below.
A major conclusion of the SCEP study was that data of all types are
lacking and that new methods of collecting, compiling and standardizing
data are required. Peterson's paper presents a first effort at compling data
describing the resources available for producing goods and amenities in
the Pacific Northwest region.
The SCEP report notes that agriculture, mining and industry are in-
creasing at a rate of above five percent annually, approximately twice as fast
as global population growth. Man is using natural resources at rates greater
than the rates of erosion and deposition; the distribution of resources is
changing.
The gradual pollution-caused attrition of natural systems is a measure of
the total impact of man on the environment. Most pollutants affect predators,
specific species and general biological activities—all of which must be
balanced to maintain a healthy ecology.
The SCEP recommends an intensive program of technology assessment
to determine the effects of pollutants, to identify the sources of pollutants
and to integrate such information into plans for technological development.
It also recommends a program of environmental assessment to determine
the distribution routes of pollutants and their passage through ecosystems.
In a broad sense the carrying capacity analysis presented here can be
used as a tool for technology and environmental assessment. One such
analysis of pollution as a function of regional production and population
level is presented by Peterson.
Speaking of global climatic effects, the SCEP report states that man may
affect climate by introducing, through fossil fuel combustion, carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. Recently, the carbon dioxide density has been in-
creasing by about 0.2 percent per year. The study estimates, based on a
"primitive model," that doubling the carbon dioxide concentration would
result in an increase of about 2°C in surface temperature, which could lead
to long term warming of the planet. The study concludes that climatic
change as a result of changes in the carbon dioxide content of the at-
mosphere is unlikely in the near term, however, the long-term effects could
be serious and continued study and monitoring are required.
Man introduces significant quantities of sulfates, nitrates and hydrocar-
bons into the atmosphere. The optical properties of these particles and how
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they scatter and absorb energy from the sun and the surface of the earth
must be studied, improved measurement techniques must be developed
and specific particle content must be monitored to improve our un-
derstanding of their impact.
The report emphasizes that the system of ocean and air currents,
evaporation and precipation, surface and cloud reflection and absorption,
form a complex feedback system which maintains the global energy in
balance. The delicacy of this balance and the consequences of disturbing it
make it important to assess the present and future impact of man's activities
on this system.
In summary, the SCEP report cites the need for more data and further
study. It emphasizes the balance which must be maintained between the
many factors influencing the environment A further example of the
limitations and interrelatedness of the biosphere is presented in the next
section.
The Spaceship Earth Concept
Comparing the earth and its life support systems to a spaceship is a vivid
way of illustrating the finite nature of our ecosystem. As described by Lyn-
ton Caldwell (2), this model
"Illustrates relationships between man and his environment that
are basic to his welfare and survival. Ecological facts that man
prefers to evade on earth are universally acknowledged for the
spaceship. For example, no one doubts that there is a limit to the
number of passengers that the ship can accommodate, and the
need for reserve capacity to meet unforeseeable contingencies is
not questioned. It is obvious that the spaceship cannot indefinitely
transform its nutrients into waste.
If extruded from the ship as waste, energy sources are
irretrievably lost; if accumulated as waste, viability of the ship is
ultimately destroyed from within. There is no escape from the
necessity of recycling waste materials. For the duration of the
voyage, the ship must remain in ecological balance. Disruption of
any of its systems may mean disaster for the mission and the crew.
Systems maintenance is, therefore, one of the essential com-
ponents of a program of space exploration:"
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Comparing the ecology of the spaceship to that of the earth, Caldwell
says,
"The ... (earth) is a unified system dependent upon the co-
ordinated and continuing functioning of interrelating systems and
parts. It has surpluses, redundancy, and backup capacity, but its
resources are nevertheless limited. Because carrying capacity is
one of its limits, it must so far as possible recycle its resources
unless it can obtain them at feasible cost from external sources.
Changes in the system must be studied in relation to their total ef-
fects, because altered relationships among the parts, even in-
tended improvements, may adversely affect the performance of the
whole. Maintenance of the system and its subsystems must be
watched, for failure at any critical point could lead to the destruc-
tion of the entire enterprise."
Implications for Today
The SCEP report discusses the balance which must exist among all
elements of the biosphere and states that man has caused significant
damage to the environment. It presents specific recommendations for im-
proving the data available and recommends methodologies which must be
developed to support environmental planning. The Spaceship Earth con-
cept emphasizes the finite limitations of our resources and again stresses
the interdependence among the elements of the biosphere.
Although these discussions focus on the total biosphere and global en-
vironmental problems, the SCEP report notes that the existence of global
problems does not necessarily imply a need for global solutions. Most
corrective action must be applied at the national, regional and local levels,
where the sources of pollution and the activities of man can be controlled
and regulated.
To control and manage the environment at the local or regional level
requires information and data to define and quantify the factors affecting the
environment. New methods of analysis which help planners and policy-
makers evaluate the probable results of alternative actions are required.
The carrying capacity analysis presented by Peterson is one approach to
such analysis. He presents data quantifying the resources available for
producing goods and for producing amenities. The latter permits an
evaluation of the Quality of Life available under alternative policies. He
describes the relationships between population levels, production of goods
and energy, pollution, pollution control and the Quality of Life.
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The Classical Fundamental Problem of Population
and Industrial Growth
As a prelude to his discussion of carrying capacity analysis, Peterson
summarizes relationships between population and industrial output as
follows:
Frequently natural resource and environmental quality problems have
been equated with population. However, human members are only one part
of the equation. The other part is the goods and services (gross product)
man produces with energy applied to machines. This energy may be
derived from domestic animals, from hydro power, from burning wood or
fossil fuels, from nuclear or direct solar sources. For a nation or a large
region the consumption of natural resources and the potential detrimental
impact on the environment is assumed to increase roughly in proportion to
the increase in the gross product. However, there are variations in the
potential impact from basic industries as compared to secondary industries,
or between individual basic industries; also the relationship can be
modified substantially by recycling and by other forms of pollution control.
Gross product also is assumed to vary in proportion to energy con-
sumption. The relationship between income, gross product and energy
use, on an annual per capita basis for selected nations, is shown in Figures
1, 2, and 3. Although the relationship has been approximately correct in the
past it is not necessarily inviolate for all time. But at present there is in-
sufficient evidence upon which to base an assumption of a change. On a
national basis there was a slight downward trend in the use of energy per
unit of GNP between 1950 and 1968, but since then it has been rising.
Per Capita Share of GNP
For convenience the per capita share of GNP in 1965 dollars, is used as
the measurement of goods and services produced. In 1967 the situation in
one affluent nation and and one underdeveloped nation was as shown in
Table 1.
Table 1
Comparison of Per Capita Consumption1
United States India
Per Capita Share GNP in 1967 $3,490
Energy Equivalent Required (tons of coal) 12 0.25
i,1/oo
Steel (pounds per capita per year) 1,^00 30
1"The Next Ninety Years," proceedings of a conference sponsored by the Office for Industrial
Associates at the California Institute of Technology (1967), Harrison Brown, Professor of
Geochemistry.
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CO
00
THOUSANDS U.S. DOLLAR EQUIVALENTS
4321
I I I I
INDIA
Based upon 1968 data. Standard Oil Company of California Bulletin, 1970,
BARRELS OIL EQUIVALENT
10 20 30
20
I
ko
I
50
J_
60
J
U.S.
CANADA
SWEDEN
UNITED KINGDOM
WEST GERMANY
FRANCE
JAPAN
MEXICO
Figure 1. Annual Per Capita Income and Energy Consumption
-------
BILLIONS OF $ 1952
QUADRILLION BTU
GROSS
NATIONAL
PRODUCT
1990
Actual
Projected
SOURCE: Office of Oil and Gas, Department of the Interior, March 1971.
Figure 2. Energy Use and Gross National Product
-------
en
QUADRILLION BTU
160-
140-
120-
100-
80-
60-
40-
20-
0
1 QUADRILLION BTU
EQUALS
965 BILLION CU. FT. GAS
OR
197 MILLION Bbl OIL
OR
38 MILLION TONS COAL
ACTUAL
ESTIMATED
OIL
NUCLEAR
I I I I I I II
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SOURCE: Office of Oil and Gas, Department of the Interior, March 1971
Figure 3. U.S. Energy Consumption in the 20th Century
-------
It appears clear that the total impact per capita upon the environment is
much greater in industrialized countries such as the United States than in
underdeveloped countries such as India. The latter uses far less land and
natural resources, far less goods and services, and causes far less
pollution on a per capita basis. In other words, in India most of the en-
vironmental stress is caused directly by the human population. In the United
States, which has only moderate population density, the bulk of the en-
vironmental stress results from economic activity.
Per Capita Servant Machines
A portion of the gross product is produced by unassisted human labor.
Through the use of energy and technology the capacity of an average in-
dividual to produce goods and services multiplies as a nation becomes
more industrialized. One way of illustrating the relationship is to assign a
portion of the per capita production of gross product to humans and the
remainder to their "servant machines" (3).
An exact dollar figure representing what an average person could
produce without modern powered equipment (exclusive of domestic
animals) probably cannot be established. In 1870, according to the
Historical Statistics of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, the per
capita share of the GNP in the United States was $440, in 1965 dollars.
Earlier statistics are not available. The 1870 figure probably was above the
world base due to the very favorable natural resource supply situation and
rudimentary industrialization. On the other hand the $88 figure for India in
1967 appears low for use as a worldwide base. Much of the economy of In-
dia, and other undeveloped nations, is barter and subsistence. This is not
conducted through established markets and therefore not priced in national
statistics. A figure of $250 per year appears to be a good compromise and
more realistic. It would approximate 4 kilowatt years of electrical energy or
the energy equivalent resulting from the combustion of about 1,700 pounds
of coal. Lacking a more refined comparison, let us make this assumption.
This would mean that in the Uited States in 1967, the average person had
13 "servant machines" ($3,490/$250 less 1) at his disposal—each "ser-
vant" producing as many beneficial outputs, and using as much resources
and space and causing as much pollution in the process as its owner. This
is without considering the amount of pollution control.
In comparison, a citizen of Sweden had 8.5 servant machines; Canada, 8;
West Germany, 5.6; Japan, 2.8; Russia, 2.3; and mainland China or India
only a fraction (4).
In 2020, with increasing affluence, the number of servant machines is
projected to increase to 61 per person in the United States. However, the
end point of uncontrolled expansion is total destruction. Sooner or teter we
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must achieve a sustainable balance between the rate we use and exploit
basic resources and the capacity of the environment to support such use
and abuse. As the British technologist, Dr. Dennis Gabor, expresses it (5):
"Exponential curves grow to infinity only in mathematics. In the
physical world, they either turn around and saturate or they break
down catastrophically."
It is possible that, if environmental quality is to be maintained, the total
number of humans that could be sustained in a given region would tend to
decrease as individual affluence (servant machines) increases; or con-
versely, the greater the number of people at a given time the fewer there
would be who could "live like kings." As Garrett Hardin in "Tragedy of the
Commons" points out, Jeremy Bentham's 19th Century principle "The
greatest good to the greatest number in the long run" is a mathematical and
biological impossibility (6). The two variables cannot be maximized
simultaneously.
Limitations of Classical Planning
Peterson believes that traditional methods of planning, based on ex-
trapolation of historical trends is no longer adequate. We need a sys-
tematic method of identifying long-range goals and evaluating alternative
plans.
Concern in the past about comprehensive long range goals has been
minimal. There is little understanding of the long term effects that different
rates and kinds of growth would have on the quality of life. There has been
little concerted action toward adopting coordinated long range goals as a
formal state or regional policy. There is no agreement on what mix of
material goals and intangibles are needed for the highest attainable quality
of life. Each person, each corporation, each governmental unit, each
citizens' organization historically has pursued his or its own ends. The
result has been unplanned, uncoordinated and uncontrolled growth. This
kind of growth historically has produced in the United States a high material
standard of living. But it also is increasingly yielding undesirable en-
vironmental results.
Classical Forecasts for the Pacific Northwest
The 1967 forecast of the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department
of Commerce, and Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture (OBERS), to the year 2020 include a change in population for
the Northwest region from 5.9 million in 1965 to 12.7 million (216%); and
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in per capita annual personal income, in constant 1965 dollars, from
$2,785 in 1965 to $13,189 (474%). In per capita share of gross regional
product, they project a change from $3,520 to $16,700. Such increases
would result in 10.2 times the production of goods and services that existed
in 1965 or from $20.4 billion to $208 billion in constant 1965 dollars. The
1971 projections based upon 1967 data show population in 2020 as 11.97
million and per capita income as $13,181, in 1965 dollars. These are
shown graphically in Figure 4.
Similar forecasts, including some consideration of individual resource
capability, frequenty have been accepted by planners and decision makers
as goals and are used to forecast the long range "needs" and "demands"
for other national and local programs such as public lands and resources,
transportation, energy supply, housing, health and education. The Battelle
Memorial Institute and the Bonneville Power Administration used such
methods for projecting Pacific Northwest long range growth in population,
employment, and income.
Questions Unanswered by the Forecasts
This type of economic projection has proven to be a reasonably accurate
forecast during the past 50 years and no other system for identifying goals
has been readily available. However, it frequently ignores natural resource
supply constraints, assumes unlimited growth, and fails to quantify either
the combined capacity of all Northwest natural resources to sustain growth
or the effect that the projected growth and economic development would
have on the livability, the congestion, the air and water pollution, and the
natural or the intangible values. Specifically, the following questions must
be answered:
1. Would the result be mining without renewal of the natural resources?
2. Would the capacity of our natural systems to assimilate man-made
waste be overwhelmed?
3. Would Northwest conditions in the year 2000 be comparable to con-
ditions in 1972 in the Los Angeles area or the East Coast
megalopolis?
4. Would people have a higher material standard of living but enjoy it
less?
New Concepts for Planning
To answer questions such as those posed in the preceeding Section
and to incorporate alternative approaches to solving these problems, the
study draws only slightly on either the pure ecologists or the economists,
whether classical or contemporary. Instead it utilizes contemporary
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$157.8
(BILLION)
T
8
6
4
2 -
o
CO
<
1 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
_. TOTAL PERSONAL INCC
PER CAPITA INCOME
POPULATION
$4.4
(BILLION)
3-0
(MILLION)
$1,400
I
1929
\
40
T
50
59
I
70
I
80
I I
90 2000
I
10
$13,200
12.0
(MILLION)
20
SOURCE: Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce; and
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (OBERS)
1967 base year (1965 dollars)
Figure 4. Pacific Northwest Growth in Totaf Personal Income, Income Per
Capita and Population from 1929 to 1967, with Projections to 2020
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multidisciplinary efforts that attempt to gain a balanced perspective of the
two, such as:
"Tragedy_of the Commons", Garrett Hardin, 1968. (6).
"Resources and Man", Preston Cloud, Ed., National Academy of Scien-
ces. (7).
"Man's Impact on the Global Environment" Report of SCEP, sponsored
by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1970. (8).
"Population, Resources, Environment", Paul R. Ehrlich & Anne H.
Ehrlich. (9).
"The Closing Circle", Barry Commoner. (10).
"A Blueprint for Survival", in The Ecologist, January 1972. (11).
"Report of the Commission on Population and the American Future".
(12).
"Economic Growth and Environmental Decay", David W. Seckler & Paul
W. Barkey. (13).
Assumed Limitations to Growth
Any function monotonically increasing in a positive non-fractional
geometric progression will approach an infinite amount. This is commonly
referred to as exponential growth. Since land and other resources are finite
and since population and gross regional product increase in a geometric
series, a limit will be reached if growth continues. One natural law that is as
immutable as the law of gravity is that nothing physical on this planet can
expand forever. Based upon these principles the assumptions are made
that:
(1) It is physically impossible for either the gross regional product or the
population to expand forever.
(2) A state of equilibrium must be reached eventually, the unknowns are
when and how.
(3) At some point in time, further increases in population and gross
regional product begin reducing the overall quality of life.
The foregoing assumptions challenge the American ethic—the doctrine
of "manifest destiny"—of Keynesian economics-Hhat growth is progress
and progress is good—that the "invisible guiding hand" of the market
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place will automatically produce the optimum mix of material and intangible
benefits. There has been relatively little scientific effort devoted to studying
such basic issues (14).
Reluctance to tackle the basic issues directly may arise because it is
contrary to the growth drive that has been United States gospel since 1776
and has in fact motivated much of mankind since prehistoric times. But
changes in our way of life and the quality of living are increasing rapidly.
Since 1950 the real output of goods and services in the United States has
exceeded the total for the previous 330 years. What we do now, or fail to do,
fixes future patterns of life. We can no longer afford to approach the future
haphazardly. The choice is whether to plan for and guide future changes or
be engulfed by them. This paper is devoted to exploring in a systematic
manner one of the possible ways of identifying long range goals, using the
Pacific Northwest as an example.
New Assumptions for Planning Guidelines
Most of the planning assumptions to date have been that the future will be
an extension of the past; that population increases and industrial growth
inevitably will continue at an exponential rate and the proper course of ac-
tion is to supply the highways, electrical power, water, urban expansion,
and all other things needed to accommodate this growth; that plans are
needed only to organize the inevitable; that any problems which result from
the growth will be solved by using science and technology to manipulate
natural ecosystems.
There is a rapidly developing differing view that (15):
(1) Today's problems are a result of successes as defined in yesterday's
terms.
(2) An extension of the past is not the right prescription for the future.
(3) The primary planning goals for this nation should be altered—with
high quality livability as the major long term objective (including a major im-
provement in the economic position of many of our citizens) and economic
development shaped around this overriding determinant.
(4) Science and technology, if oriented toward harmony with nature, can,
within limits, assist in reaching the highest attainable quality of life goals.
(5) Through social and political action it is possible to encourage,
modify, or block growth and development trends so that they are compatible
with those long range goals which are supported by a popular consensus.
Unquestionably, the attainment of the present United States material stan-
dard of living coupled with a high level of personal freedom and leisure
time has been a magnificient achievement—the envy of much of the world.
But there were unforeseen and costly consequences too. Now there are
new challenges. The foresight exercised in today's planning decisions and
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actions (or lack of actions) will determine the quality of life and material
standard of living available for our children and grandchildren. Land, water,
and air resources must be recognized as inseparable components of a
single life support system, not as independent reservoirs for both raw
materials and waste disposal to be appropriated and exploited at will. Some
way must be found to balance and harmonize both economic and ecologic
goals while maintaining our democratic principles.
Alternative Goals
If the desire of the people is to control their own destiny and build a future
which differs from an extension of the past it will be necessary to decide
upon long range goals and tailor long range plans and action programs to
best fit those goals. It would require changes in many of our traditional
procedures and priorities, Among them is the system of preparing long
range plans based primarily upon the projection of historical growth trends
in population and economic activity.
We thus have four alternative fundamental growth policies we can adopt
Alternative one. Arbitrarily adopt a "no growth" policy.
Alternative two. Make every effort to accelerate growth.
Alternative three. Combine several scenarios of pollution, natural beauty,
living space, and other environmental quality trends with several alternate
economic projections to present a better balanced picture (quality of life-in-
dices) of the possible futures.
Alternative four. Manage and control our use of resources on a carrying
capacity basis. This could be a steady state scenario under alternative
three. The carrying capacity alternative appears to have considerable
potential for identifying sustainable balances between ecology and the
economy. It is a new approach. In contrast, the other three approaches are
either in use or being explored by others.
Carrying capacity analysis provides a means of identifying alternative
goals for population and economic growth, quality of life and quality of the
environment. It is based on the assumption that uncontrolled growth of the
population and economy of a region cannot be sustained forever.
Carrying Capacity Analysis of the Pacific Northwest
The remainder of this paper presents, within the limits of available in-
formation, the basic features of a prototype system for identifying different
combinations of population levels, economic activity levels, and intangible
value levels that are possible for the Pacific Northwest—an approach that
identifies both the limits of basic natural resources of a region to support
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future growth and the desirable and undesirable consequences of various
levels of growth.
Carrying capacity is an ancient principle in man's relationship to the land.
It is an established method in the management of renewable resources
such as agricultural land, forests, watersheds, and wildlife, but has not
previously been applied to the entire economy and environment of a region.
It was the way of life for mankind prior to the industrial and technological
age beginning in the early 1800's—the age when man began the ex-
ponential exploitation of non-renewable resources. It represents capacity
under a steady state or equilibrium conditions with only moderate
oscillations in population but with continuous invention to increase choices
and provide greater diversity.
It has been established that most, if not all, species of wild animals have
instincts which usually tend to prevent overcrowding in their native habitat.
They frequently thrive best at less than the maximum density which would
be possible with the available food and shelter, etc. In other words,
sustained carrying capacity estimates for different species of wildlife must
recognize population density in addition to other constraints. There is
growing evidence, but no conclusive proof and no consensus among ex-
perts, that similar principles apply to human society. Congested sections of
some of our urban centers, for example, are experiencing social unrest and
appear too crowded. There is growing evidence that there is a basic human
need for natural open space and there may be an optimum population and
acreage for individual urban areas. The carrying capacity in visitor days is
being determined for parks, golf courses, hunting and fishing areas, wilder-
ness areas, and similar recreation lands.
In the Pacific Northwest, both the bulk of the basic industries and the high
quality scenery and outdoor amenities are dependent upon renewable
natural resources—forests and grassland, mountains and valleys, rivers
and lakes, agricultural land, urban and industrial land, seaports, ample high
quality water, hydroelectric power sites.a continuous influx of clean air off
the Pacific Ocean and good climate. Industries based upon location, such
as those manufacturing transportation or electronic equipment or metals
from imported ones, find the Northwest a desirable location because of its
renewable natural resources. The secondary industries, which are
generated by the basic industries, are similarly oriented.
The only basic Northwest industry which the study considers to be based
primarily upon non-renewable resources is mining. But the Northwest sup-
ply of its most important minerals such as stone, limestone, phosphate, cop-
per, lead, zinc, and nickel should last from 50 years to indefinitely. The Nor-
thwest presently is not self-sufficient in several vital minerals such as oil
and gas, iron or aliminum ore. But this is no more of a disadvantage to the
Northwest than it is to other mineral short regions of the nation.
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With such a preponderance of the economy and the livability of the Nor-
thwest based upon renewable natural resources now and for the
foreseeable future, would it be possible and desirable to determine
carrying capacity for the Northwest in terms of population and production of
goods and services per year (gross product)? Such an undertaking would
require defining benchmark optimum needs in terms of gross product per
capita as well as intangibles per capita. Such an approach does offer
promise as a way to achieve a "balance of nature" under the spaceship
earth concept. It offers promise as an alternate to the historical trend
technique. It might avoid some of the pitfalls and uncertainties of long range
forecasting.
Methodology for Carrying Capacity Analysis
There are several techniques, very sophisticated, that might be used to
apply the carrying capacity concept. This initial study attempts to con-
centrate on the major principles and critical factors, present them in a direct
skeletal fashion, and illustrate the concept in the Pacific Northwest with first
approximation numbers. The procedure is summarized as follows:
1. Determine benchmark standards for measuring Quality of Life.
Average per capita income will be chosen as the parameter; an optimum
apportionment of income among material necessities and intangibles,
based on social theory, will be identified.
2. Assess the Gross Regional Product (GRP) and the amount of pollution
in the base year (1965). Then determine the relationship between ad-
ditional GRP and pollution with different levels of pollution control. Also
assess potential constraints.
3. Assess the utilization of natural resources in the base year (1965) for
GRP and for intangible purposes and their potential for the future on a
carrying capacity basis. Assess potential constraints.
4. Within carrying capacity constraints identify the optional goals
available for future growth in the Pacific Northwest in terms of various com-
binations of population and per capita GRP. Determine the relationship of
each combination to (a) overall pollution levels in 1965, and (b) the quality
of life benchmarks.
A Quality of Life Benchmark
The first step in the process of applying carrying capacity analysis to
identifying alternative "acceptable" long range goals for a region is to
determine the various combinations of economic affluence and en-
vironmental quality that are attainable and how close these would be to the
"optimum." In other words a technique is needed to measure the trade-offs
between material quantity and intangible quality. There is no universal
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agreement concerning what would constitute an optimum quality of life in a
particular geographic area for humans. To a degree, such perceptions are
culturally oriented. However, probably a majority in the United States would
agree that in an ideal environment the basic needs of every citizen would be
satisfied and he or she would have full opportunity for personal fulfillment
and have the assurance that his or her children and grandchildren, ad in-
finitum, would have the same opportunities.
Personal fulfillment ordinarily means reasonable opportunity to develop
one's innate potential for creativity and constructive effort for the long term
benefit of both himself or herself and society as a whole. In an optimum en-
vironment there would be ample challenge, diversity, and inspiration to
satisfy a wide range of interests. There would also be moderate stress and
competition—not an effortless society on the one hand or a ruthless, over-
demanding one on the other. Every human would be needed, and respec-
ted as an individual. Everyone would have personal freedom and freedom
of choice to pursue his own goals, whether they be economic, moral, social,
or aesthetic. There would be ample opportunity for a wide variety of cultures
and life styles. No one would be forced to reside where he either suffered
from lack of human companionship or felt hemmed in by too many people.
There has been little scientific effort devoted to systematically identifying
the elements that comprise an optimum quality of life. Yet if the people are
to guide their future destiny, the ultimate goals must be described in both
comprehensive and understandable terms. One way to come to grips with
such a complicated problem, in the absence of adequate information about
all its aspects, is to propose a basic conceptual framework and subject it to
review, revision, improvement, and refinement. This description of a quality
of life benchmark represents such a pioneering effort. It is needed as a
reference point for measuring the quantity-quality trade-offs. Both the
material elements and the intangible elements are essential to the
realization of the desired quality of life, but one of the greatest potential
threats this nation faces is that the intangible values will be irretrievably
destroyed during the pursuit of short term, material values. Indeed, the
tragic evidence of such myopia is already apparent in too many parts of this
nation.
To better their quality of life the people of nations throughout the world
historically have placed initial emphasis upon acquiring the basic
necessities. Frequently this required sufficient concentrations of population,
and knowledge of science and technology to make more efficient use of
available energy, automation, and mass production. Similar economies of
scale usually have been necessary to maintain adequate facilities for
security, education, health, government, and entertainment.
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As soon as per capita income exceeds the amount needed to satisfy the
most essential portions of basic and immediate material needs for
existence such as food, clothing, housing, security, health, and tran-
sportation, the average person's (and nation's) interest and emphasis shifts
to longer range and more intangible items (and our most perishable
amenities) such as education, recreation, clean air, clean water, quietness,
open space, personal elbow room, variety, and stimulation, cultural op-
portunities, attractive design and landscaping, natural scenic beauty and
wilderness. Usually such amenities require a substantial number of servant
machines per capita, including those used to control the adverse effects of
production. Because of the increasing affluence and rising expectations of
the average person, it appears that in the next century there will be sharply
increasing interest in cultural and aesthetic pursuits and other quality
aspects of the environment in the United States—an interest that was very
low key during the past century—all concentrating on a land, water, and air
resource base that is finite.
Other nations are similarly motivated. Those struggling for an economic
toehold have little energy left for planning long range improvements; or as
John Galbraith expresses it, "The natural priorities of a society proceed
from getting the goods to getting the surroundings in which they can be en-
joyed" (16). The United States now has the economic capability to invest
heavily in measures designed to enhance the well-being of future
generations.
The Hierarchy of Human Needs as a QOL Rationale
Psychologists who have been studying human motivation in the United
States refer to the relationship as the "hierarchy of human needs." Those
needs are depicted as a triangle consisting of five compartments with
physiological needs at the base and self-fulfillment needs at the apex. The
arrangement indicates that a need at one level tends to be the primary
motivation after the most essential, but not necessarily all, of the needs at
the lower levels have been satisfied (Figure 5). There are many individual
exceptions, and the need categories tend to blend and intermingle.
However, on the average, after the physiological and security needs are
satisfied, energy is available for satisfying more intangible needs, assisting
others and providing for future generations. Of course, without the
necessary motivation, it may not be used for such purposes.
The hierarchy theory is that with each step upward (or downward) a per-
son's, or a nation's, short range goals and priorities change- The long range
hazard that some can clearly foresee, and others do not yet perceive, is that
a nation's efforts to satisfy the basic material needs for an ever increasing
population can foreclose the opportunities for eventually satisfying the in-
tangible self-fulfillment needs essential for an optimum quality of life.
106
-------
5. SELF FULFILLMENT NEEDS
Sense of accomplishment and achievement
of full capability; acceptance of new
challenges; broadening of horizons of
interest; self actualization
4. EGO NEEDS
Achievement of independence,
self-esteem, deserved respect
of peers, recognition, confidence
3. SOCIAL NEEDS
Sense of belonging to a group and
acceptance by other people, love
and affection
2. SECURITY NEEDS
Protection from physical harm, assurance
of continuing income and employment,
protection of home (including land and
natural resources which provide the basis
for quality of life over the long term)
PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS
Food, shelter, clothing, sleep,
reproduction of the species,
identity, stimulation, etc.
Figure 5. The Hierarchy of Human Needs (17).
107
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The hierarchy of needs theory may be useful as an illustration but the
reader should be aware that it has limitations; it is not universally accepted.
Also the emphasis on the various steps varies with different cultures bet-
ween nations and within an individual nation.
Marginal Utility as a QOL Rationale
As a supplement, and for those who have reservations about using the
"hierarchy of needs" as an illustration, the "marginal utility" approach is
presented also. As Seckler and Barkley explain it (13):
"In the developed countries goods and services have ac-
cumulated in upper middle class homes to such an extent that the
marginal utility of "things" has surely dropped. At the same time,
fresh air, clean water, wilderness and quiet (things often called
"amenities") have one by one become more scarce, more dear".
The curves in Figure 6 show the decreasing marginal utility (MU) of
goods over time and the increasing marginal utility of amenities over time.
Under such conditions the wisdom of producing more and more goods
should be questioned since, by moving into the future (past time period P in
Figure 6) the added utility of goods and services would be lower than the
marginal utility of the amenities that had to be sacrificed in order to produce
the goods. At point P1, amenities with marginal values of OD have been
sacrificed to obtain goods with marginal utility of OA. The difference (BC)
indicates the net loss.
On the other hand, if the production of goods and services should level
off, the marginal utility of amenities would tend to level off also.
Per Capita Income as the QOL Standard
In order to satisfy all levels of human needs, financial resources are
necessary. A generally understood and readily available common
denominator for setting forth the specific elements which contribute to
quality of life is an apportionment of average per capita income. Despite its
deficiencies, money is a remarkably reliable and versatile measure of
human reaction.
Therefore, with the concepts of the hierarchy of human needs and
marginal utility of goods and amenities as background and supporting
philosophies, we have chosen per capita income as the parameter for
measuring quality of life. The assumption is that when a sufficiently high in-
come is attained, quality of life, based on individual taste and philosophy
can be attained by the members of society.
After a brief study of benchmark quality of life standards for 15 different
categories of living expenses, an average per capita annual income of
$7,500 in constant 1965 dollars ($30,000 gross for a family of four) is used
108
-------
MU OF GOODS
o «/>
LU
>- o
I --
H a:
— ui
— 10
o o
a: o
< o
HIGH
MU OF AMENITIES
\
HIGH
— CO
_l LU
LU
QC O
LOW
PAST
PRESENT FUTURE
Figure 6. Marginal Utility of Goods and Amenities
109
-------
to represent the amount needed to satisfy benchmark quality of life stan-
dards now or in the foreseeable future. This would be comparable to adop-
ting the 1972 upper middle income standards as an average. No major
change in income distribution is assumed. Individual incomes are expected
to vary substantially from the $7,500 average, comparable to variations from
the average in 1972.
The uses to which income is put are perhaps as important as the absolute
level of income. A preliminary standard for apportionment of income to
achieve a benchmark quality of life is shown in Table 2. The apportionment
is related to the hierarchy of human needs in Table 3.
Our preliminary estimate is that about 28 percent of the $7,500 would be
for physiological needs; 21 percent for security needs; 18 percent for social
needs; 15 percent for ego needs; and 18 percent for self-fulfillment needs.
The benchmark standards are pioneering examples. This apportionment is
not based upon exhaustive or conclusive analysis; no such detailed studies
are available (18).
In contrast, the Office of Business Economics Research Service, U.S.
Department of Commerce (OBERS) projects that the $7,500 average will be
reached about the year 2000 and advance to $13,200 by the year 2020.
The $7,500 in per capita income compares to about $9,500 in per capita
share of gross regional product. The latter is about 2.7 times the national
average in 1967. It appears attainable only by increasing the productive ef-
ficiency or output of the average worker by 1 70 percent above the 1967
level. This would require major improvements in science and technology
and continued availability of energy at acceptable prices. It would require
an increase in servant machines per person from 13 in 1965 to 37. The per
capita income in the Pacific Northwest is now, and is assumed to continue,
at approximately the same level as for the remainder of the United States.
The per capita income of $7,500 and its apportionment, will be taken as
the benchmark for quality of life standard. As the analysis proceeds, the in-
come achievable under various combinations of population and economic
growth will be used to assess the acceptability of each set of conditions.
Capacity for GRP as a Function of Pollution Control
In 1965, our data base year, the Pacific Northwest GRP was about $20.5
billion but the average annual per capita income ($2,785) was only 37% of
the benchmark standard. There was localized air pollution, water pollution,
visual pollution, and land misuse. However, for the Northwest as a whole,
natural systems were assimilating practically all of the waste produced. The
Northwest was relatively uncongested and its high quality natural en-
vironment was largely intact.
110
-------
Table 2. Average Apportionment of Income to Achieve Benchmark Quality
of Life
Expenditure Category
1 . Food
2. Clothing
3. Housing
4. Transportation
5. Health
6. Education
7. Clean Air
8. Clean Water
9. Solid Waste Disposal
10. Quiet
11. Attractive Surroundings
12. Recreation
13. Open Space
14. Savings, Contributions,
Insurance, and Misc.
15. Federal , State, and
Local Government (Note 3)
Total
Average Per Capita
for Member of
Family of 4 in I960
(Note 1)
Dollars
$ 400
138
437
290
235
149
-
-
-
-
-
72
"
164
305
$2,192
Percentage
18.33
6.30
19.93
13.20
10.74
6.81
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
3.31
(Note 2)
7.48
13.90
1002;
Average Per Capita
Under Benchmark
Standards, in 1965 $
Dol lars
Requi red
$ 960
450
1 ,200
700
320
380
150
160
110
160
1JO
4.00
320
5&0
l,5ffO
$7,500
(Note -4)
Percentages
of $7,500
12.8
6.0
16.0
9.34
4.26
5.07
2.0
2.13
1.47
2.13
1.73
5.33
4.26-
7.48
20.0
TOO?
NOTE 1: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics., Survey of Consumer
Expendi tures, Western Kegion.
NOTE 2: Not segregated by BLS in 1960--probably included under other items.
NOTE 3: Includes government expenditures for items other than the 14 categories
listed in Table 4. Government expenditures assumed to Be 6*K Federal,
20% State, 20% Local. Information concerning government -expend!tures
from the Federal Budget—I960, and State of Washington, Office of
Program Planning and Fiscal Management.
NOTE 4: Equivalent to $9,,500 in per capita share of gross product-
111
-------
Table 3. Relationship Between the "Hierarchy of Human Needs" and "Average Apportionment of In-
come Benchmark Quality of Life
MEANS TO SATISFY NEEDS (AVERAGE ANNUAL PER CAPITA BUDGET)
ro
HUMAN
NEEDS
1. PHYSIOLOGICAL
2. SECURITY
3. SOCIAL
4. EGO
5. SELF-FULFILLMENT
6. TOTALS
*
$
%
$
*
5
*
S
%
$
*
$
1
o
S
7°
672
20
192
10
96
100
960
2
u
z
X
l-
o
u
50
225
20
90
20
90
10
45
100
450
3
CD
z
in
ZD
O
X
50
600
15
180
15
180
10
120
10
120
|00
1200
TRANSPORTATION .c-
30
210
15
105
20
140
15
105
20
140
100
700
HEALTH un
50
160
20
64
10
32
10
32
10
32
100
320
6
O
§
13
O
LJ
10
38
30
114
15
57
15
57
30
114
100
360
7
a:
_J
u
20
30
10
15
20
30
20
30
30
45
100
150
8
UJ
3
u
20
32
30
48
20
32
30
48
100
160
SOLID WASTE
DISPOSAL j
20
22
10
11
30
33
30
33
10
11
100
110
10
t,
§
25
40
10
16
25
40
20
32
20
32
100
160
ATTRACTIVE _ I
SURROUNDINGS -
10
13
20
26
20
26
30
65
100
130
RECREATION £
10
40
30
120
30
120
30
120
100
400
13
UJ
CO
UJ
a.
0
10
32
20
64
15
48
15
48
40
128
100
320
14
Ul
V)
U
Z
1
30
168
30
168
40
224
100
560
GOVERNMENT
(Except 14 Items) "
65
975
10
150
10
150
15
225
100
1500
16
trt
I
28
2114
21
1544
18
1354
15
1139
18
1349
100
7500
Figures used represent preliminary subjective estimates of the principal author.
-------
As used in this study, the term pollution includes all kinds of activities by
man which cause land spoliation, water quality degradation, air quality
degradation, or harmful noise.
The adverse effects of pollution can, within limits, be mitigated by in-
creasing pollution control. Techniques for pollution control include: (1)
redesigning processes, machines, etc., to reduce pollution at its source; (2)
shift of emphasis to goods and services with inherently less pollution
problems (changing the composition of the GRP); (3) cleaning up effluents
and emissions before releasing them; (4) recycling wastes; and (5)
deliberately planning and implementing all development so that it is in har-
mony with natural ecosystems.
Estimated Artificial Pollution Control in 1965
The exact amount of articifical pollution control in the Pacific Northwest in
1965 is unknown. A rough estimate of the amount of recycling (mostly solid
wastes) is 10% Other forms of artificial pollution control did exist (primary
and secondary sewage treatment plants and rudimentary erosion control
are two examples), but there was almost no control of noise or of emissions
to the atmosphere. The total artificial pollution control, in addition to
recycling, was perhaps between 5 and 10% Let us assume 7%, making the
total 17% The exact amount is not critical; it could vary 5% + or - without a
significant effect upon the end results.
Estimated Natural Capacity to Assimilate Waste
In addition to artificial pollution control^ we must account for the capacity
of natural systems to assimilate waste. The capacity of natural systems must
not be exceeded if the benchmark quality of life standards are to be met. In
the Pacific Northwest in 1965 there was localized air pollution, water
pollution, land abuse, visual pollution, and solid waste problems, for exam-
ple. This indicated that the assimilative capacity of the natural systems had
been exceeded locally. In many other "bases, however, it appeared that the
natural systems had additional pollution absorption capacity. If the pollution
in 1965 had been distributed more widely it might have been absorbed by
the natural systems without degradation. This is probably on the optimistic
side and is debatable. However, for purposes of this study let us make such
an assumption. That assumption would mean that, on a regional average
basis, the combined capacity of the natural and the artificial systems was
adequate to handle the total pollution load in 1965.
Technological Limitations to Achievable Pollution Control
A goal of either 100% artificial pollution control or zero waste per unit of
GRP is unattainable from both the technological and economic standpoints.
The cost and technical difficulty of reducing, by artificial means, the amount
113
-------
of pollution from a given source increase rapidly as zero pollution is ap-
proached. The absolute limit is reached when the pollution created by the
clean-up servant machines is as great as the improvement in pollution
levels. There has been ho overall assessment of what this limit on reduction
of pollution may be. There is only limited information for individual com-
ponent industries. The best we can do is to assume a limit based upon
present partial information and revise it as more complete information
becomes available. Our assumption is that technological constraints limit
pollution control to 90%
Economic Limitations to Achievable Pollution Control
The benefits (both material and intangible) resulting from additional in-
vestments for pollution control must exceed the costs. But here the law of
diminishing returns becomes increasingly important as the 90% physical
limit is approached.
Unfortunately, there is, at present, no reliable overall assessment of what
the upper economic limits may be. Possibly they lie between 80% to 90%
Let us make the optimistic assumption -of 90% and revise it in the future as
more information becomes available.
Assumed Maximum Achievable Pollution Control
Combining the 90% technological limit and the 90% economic limit, the
maximum achievable pollution control will be assumed to be 90%x 90% =
80% (rounded). Attainment of the 80% would require a substantially in-
creased application of (a) science and technology, (b) natural resource
management, and (c) land use controls. This is clearly beyond the scope of
such measures in effect or seriously contemplated anywhere in the nation in
1972 (19).
Definition of Pollution Unit
For discussion purposes, we will define one pollution unit as that
produced by $1 billion in GRP, with no artificial or natural pollution control.
This definition provides a convenient way of relating pollution to GRP and
permits a first approximate way of studying the effects of pollution control.
With this definition the number of pollution units produced by a region is
(GRP in billions of 1965 dollars) x (100%-% of pollution control)/(100). For
example, a region with $100 billion GRP and 20% pollution control would
produce (100) x (100-20)/100 = 80 units.
The relationships for five levels of pollution control are shown in Figure 7.
The following can be seen from the Figure.
1. With 80% pollution control, the GRP cannot exceed $85 billion if the
objective is to maintain pollution at the assimilative capacity of natural
systems (1965 level).
114
-------
PERCENTAGES INDICATE LEVEL
OF ARTIFICIAL POLLUTION CONTROL
I ~ I I I I t I
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240.
GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT (BILLIONS, 19&5 DOLLARS)
This assumes that no units of pollution occur until the pollution
assimilative capacity of natural systems is reached and that after that point
one unit of pollution is equivalent to $1 billion in gross regional product.
The GRP in 1965 was $20.5 billion with 17% pollution control. Total pollution
produced was 20.5 x (1.00-0.17) or 17 units. It is assumed that these units
represented the full assimilative capacity of natural systems with the results
that there were zero net units of pollution in 1965. (3-5 units were con-
trolled artificially.)
:igure 7. Units of Pollution With Alternative Combinations of GRP and
dilution Control
115
-------
2. If the pollution standard is relaxed to permit 51 units (3 times the 1965
level) the GRP could be $340 billion, with 85% pollution control.
3. If only 17% pollution control is achieved, $340 billion in GRP would
produce a net 282 pollution units in the region.
4. The $208 billion GRP projected forecast by OBERS for the year 2020,
given the 80% maximum pollution control, will produce 42 pollution units,
25 units above the 1965 level or about 11/2 times the assumed natural
assimilative capacity of the region.
These examples should not be taken as firm conclusions. They serve only
to illustrate the technique we have chosen for assessing relative levels of
pollution resulting from alternative combinations of pollution control and
GRP.
Capacity for Sustained Use of Natural
Resources for Material Purposes
The second major step in applying carrying capacity analysis is to deter-
mine the capacity of the region for sustained use of natural resources for
material purposes, i.e. generating GRP.
An approximation of the long term carrying capacity of the Pacific Nor-
thwest as a whole for both population and gross product may be made by
analyzing its available land and its natural and man made resources. This
approximation includes the assumption that the relatively good quantity
and quality of Northwest capital, management, and labor would continue. It
assumes that inter-regional and international trade will increase, limited
however by the capacity of Northwest natural resources to provide the base
for such trade on a sustained basis. It is also based upon the proposition
that although major future breakthroughs in science and technology are
possible, they are by no means assured. The first priority should be a major
re-orientation of science and technology to correct the backlog of problems
caused by economic growth such as ecosystem disruption, poisons,
eutrophication, soil erosion, maldistribution of population, excessive noise,
and all manner of emissions and effluents. A prudent procedure is to base
assessments of sustainable future economic activity upon today's
knowledge. Changes in those assessments are warranted only after
breakthroughs in science and technology actually occur and are proven to
be a positive step in the direction of an optimum quality of life.
Methodology for Determining Capacity
The capacity of the Pacific Northwest was estimated by cataloging the
available renewable and non-renewable natural resources and estimating
the goods and services which could be produced by primary and secon-
dary industries. A full discussion of the technique is presented in Appendix
6 of Reference 18.
116
-------
To illustrate the procedure a summary of the analysis of the commercial
forest land is presented here. For comparison purposes it is necessary to
determine the capacity production in the base year, 1965. The Census of
Manufacturers published by the Bureau of Census estimated that lumber,
wood, paper and allied products contributed $1,936 million to the regional
GRP in 1967. Comparable figures are not available for 1965; however,
assuming the production was 15% less, the 1965 production was taken as
$1,670 million.
Research revealed that the production volume could increase by a factor
of 1.6 assuming full stocking, full utilization and all other measures to take
advantage of full soil productivity on all available acreage.
In addition to increased forest production the local manufacturing could
also increase by a factor of 1.25. Together these factors yield a potential in-
crease by a factor of 2, thus resulting in an estimated capacity for the com-
mercial forest land of $3,340 million annually.
Results of Analysis
Using similar forecasting techniques the results shown in Table 4 were
obtained. Some preliminary conclusions can be drawn, relating the
capacity for GRP to pollution levels (refer to Figure 7):
1. With 80% pollution control, the region can sustain only $85 billion
GRP without raising pollution above the 1965 level. The tentative $116
billion exceeds that limit by 36.5%
2. If the GRP reaches $116 billion the pollution will rise to 23 units (1.4
times 1965 levels) with 80%pollution control or to 57 units (3.3 times 1965
levels) with 51% pollution control.
Given the desire of the population to maintain pollution at or near the
1965 level, it is clear that effective pollution control must be planned now
whatever growth is experienced in the next decades. It is also clear that the
region might consider means of keeping growth below the estimated
capacity of $116 billion.
However, a factor of greater potential concern is the availability and cost
of energy to fuel an increase in GRP. This study assumes that energy will
not be a limiting factor for Northwest growth in relation to other regions of
the United States. However, there is growing evidence that increasing
costs and decreasing availability of energy sources and environmental
problems associated with energy may sooner or later limit economic
growth of the nation as a whole.
The $116 billion GRP for the Northwest would be over 51/2 times the
level in 1965 and would require about 51/2 times the use of energy (20).
Probably electrical energy will comprise an increasingly larger share of the
total energy needs than was the case in 1970. At that time the total energy
117
-------
Table 4. Estimated Potential of Pacific Northwest Resources to Produce Continuous Gross Regional
Product (Millions of 1965 dollars, rounded)
Resource Use For
Material Purposes
Basic
Commercial Forest Land
Agricultural Land
Commercial Fisheries
Recreation and Tourism
Industry Based Upon Location
Mining and Minerals
Subtotal
Anci 1 lary
Secondary Industries
Totals
Production, 1965
$ 1,670
1,560
70
900
2,860
620
$ 7,680
12,770
$20,450
Sustained
Production Potential
$ 3,3^0
8,740
120
6,000
8,580
2,150
$ 28,930
86,890
$115,720
118
-------
used in the Pacific Northwest consisted of 43% electricity and 57% other
forms. Electrical energy is a convenient method for converting both falling
water and various kinds of fuel into energy needed to power machines.
Most authorities agree that, if equipped with the best available air pollution
control devices, even fossil fuel electric generating plants produce far less
air pollution than burning an equivalent amount of fossil fuel in individual
motors. Under optimum conditions electricity would provide perhaps 75%
of the total energy needs for the Northwest or nearly seven times the 1965
level of use of electricity, assuming combination 4b in Table 6 (21). Fusion,
solar (including sea-thermal), and geothermal generating plants may even-
tually prove to be both feasible and relatively pollution free. Also, electrical
energy can be used to produce by electrolysis an excellent pollution free
portable fuel, hydrogen (22).
Capacity for Sustained Use of Resources
For Intangible Purposes
Intangible benefits to the individual from both the natural and the man-
made environment include all manner of physical and mental well-being,
peace of mind, exhilaration, aesthetic satisfaction, comprehension of man's
relationship with other parts of the natural and man-made world and other
factors not readily nor necessarily equatable with the material rewards that
flow from the exploitation of natural resources. Wild areas are part of man's
past and essential to his welfare. The biological rhythms of modern man,
which shape his life, are often tied to the natural forces beyond his urban
surroundings (23).
Methodology for Estimating Capacity
The best available common denominator for measuring the uses for in-
tangible purposes appears to be the recreation land classes originally
recommended by the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission
in 1961 and adopted by the Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (BOR) in 1964.
Despite a lack of detail in the BOR classification system about urban and
multiple use categories of recreation land and deficiencies in BOR's first
national inventory, it does provide an acceptable framework for a begin-
ning. The results of applying this technique to carrying capacity for in-
tangible purposes is shown in Table 5.
One purpose of the BOR system, as well as other similar systems and
standards, is to help measure otherwise imponderable needs. The basic
structure of the BOR system appears sound, but since the needs and
carrying capacities to be measured are mostly intangible, some of the
results summarized in Table 5 necessarily are subjective.
The acreage of dedicated and potentially available recreation land in
each of six land classes and three sub-classes is determined. The carrying
119
-------
Table 5. Estimated Potential of Pacific Northwest Land and Resources to Yield Intangible Uses
Needed for "Optimum" Availability
(1)
BOR Recreation Class
1. Urban
1 1 . Rural Sites
III. Multiple Use
(Except a £ b)
a. Wi Idl i fe Areas
1 . Hunting &
Observation
2. Fishing
b. Free Flowing -7
River Corridors
(1970)
IV. Outstanding
Natural Areas
V. Wilderness 2/
VI . Historic and
C-ultural Sites
TOTALS
(2) (3) W (5)
Total Acres 19&5 (1,000's)
Dedicated
20
913
76,719
Existing 2J
Habitat
Public
Lands
Existing 2/
Habitat
Public
Lands
826
(2,580 miles)
2,935
6,340
43
87,796
Additional
Avai lable
Probably^/
Over 150
Nearly it/
Unl imi ted
59,128
Existing 2J
Habitat
Private
Lands
Existing 21
Habitat
Private
Lands
2,422
(7,570 miles)
0
2,694
4/
64,244
Avai lable
0
0
21,675
4/
47
0
0
0
h/
21,675
Totals
20
913
157,522
3,248
(10,150 miles)
2,935
9,034
43
173,715
(6) (7)
Annual Carrying]/
Capacity of
Dedicated Lands
in Visits
Per
Acre
3,000
250
1
2
20
12.5
25
0.5
3,000
1965 Total
(Millions)
60
228
77
15
23
10
73
3
129
618
(8) (9)
[Annual Capacity
Needed for
Optimum - 1965]
Visits
Per
Cap! ta
100
4
12
4
4
2
6
0.3
2
134.3
Million
Visits for
5.8 Million
580
23
70
23
23
12
35
2
12
780
-------
Table 5. (Continued)
(1)
BOR Recreation Class
1. Urban
1 1 . Rural Si tes
III. Multiple Use
(Except a £ b)
a. Wi Idl i fe Areas
1 . Hunting &
Observation
2. Fishing
b. F'ree Flowing—'
River Corridors
(1970)
IV. Outstanding
Natural Areas
V. Wi Iderness ?_/
VI. Historic and
Cultural Sites
TOTALS
(10) (,11)
Surplus(s) or£/
Deficit(d) of
Dedicated Areas
in 1965
Capaci ty
In Visits
(Millions)
513(d)
205(s)
7(s)
8(d)
0
2(d)
38 (s)
Us)
117(s)
155(d)
Acres
(1 ,000's)
171 (d)
820 (s)
7,H9(s)
4,000(d)
0
102(d)
(320 mi .)
l,520(s)
2,860(s)
39 (s)
8,085(s)
(12)
Additional3/
Dedicated
Acres Needed
Per Mi 1 1 ion
Population
Increase After
1965 (1,000's)
33
16
12,000
2,000 -f
200 i/
160
(500 mi.)
240
600
0.7
15,249.7
(13) (14) (15)
Dedicated Acreage Needed
In addition to 1965 Base (1,000's)
For
10 Million
Res i dents
310
None
43,281
12,400 i/
840 y
774
(2,420 mi.)
None
None
None
57,605
For Assumed
Non-Res ident
Use
17
None (50%)
12,000 (10%)
1,000 (5%)
400 (20%)
1,200 (75%)
(3,750 mi.)
65 (25%)
2,660 (50%)
None
17,342
Totals
327
None
55,281
13,400
1 ,440 I!
1,974
(6,170 mi.)
65
2,660
None
75,147
-------
capacity in recreation visits per acre per year for each class and sub-class
is indicated. Also an estimate is made of the number of annual visits an
average resident would make to each class of land per year under "op-
timum" conditions. A percentage of non-resident use for each recreation
land class is assumed.
The benchmark optimums selected are based upon personal judgment.
They are not supported by authoritative research reports because such
research has not been conducted. Hence, the benchmark use figures
should be considered as temporary until adequate studies are completed
and more reliable information becomes available. Also, it is emphasized
that the number of visits are assumed optimums, not forecasts or historical
trend projections.
Additional discussion of the standards and rational used in estimating
carrying capacity for intangible purpose is found in Appendix 6 of
Reference 18.
Results of Analysis
It is evident that the most critical intangibles that would limit future
population growth are located mostly on the 60% of Pacific Northwest land
which is in public ownership. These values are wildlife areas, wilderness
areas, outstanding natural areas, and wild and scenic rivers. The present
supplies of these resources cannot be expanded. They are all that will ever
be available. However, some of the areas, particularly those used by
wildlife, could be improved or better managed.
In 1970 there was insufficient acreage of land dedicated to any of the
above four purposes to serve the benchmark "optimum" needs of a
resident population of 10 million plus an assumed percentage of use by
non-residents. However, if all or most of the lands that qualified were also
dedicated there would be sufficient. But much of the otherwise qualified
acreage would not be ideally located since it lies in portions of the region
the farthest from population centers.
Presently, as compared to optimum conditions, there is a large
deficiency of land in Northwest urban areas devoted to recreation and open
space purposes. Sufficient open land is available which could be dedicated
to such purposes for present urban centers; also new urban centers could
be created with ample dedicated open space from the inception.
Theoretically, the availability of urban recreation and open land should not
place a constraint upon future Northwest growth. However, very poor per-
formance in both preserving and developing public use areas in urban cen-
ters in the past and the difficulty in insuring adequate funds, authority and
integrity of long range planning, give little reason for optimism.
A truly farsighted approach to long range planning avoids irrevocable
122
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commitments now on all the land and resources. It leaves a significant per-
centage undeveloped so that future generations can exercise their own op-
tions in light of future conditions—conditions that we presently cannot
foresee.
In summary, using the standards employed in this study, land and
resources of thePacificNorthwest, if managed according to sufficiently com-
prehensive and farsighted planning, are adequate to permit "optimum" use
for intangible purposes by 10 million residents, plus about 25% use by
non-residents. Population growth beyond that point probably would be at
the expense of "optimum" livability for the average resident. The most
fragile areas, such as wilderness and wild rivers, would be the first to be
overused (or use denied).
Of course sacrifice of some of the "optimum" amenities would leave a
type of environment "acceptable" to many people. However, once living
conditions deteriorate below the optimum, the difficulty of regaining the op-
timum probably would increase exponentially as compared to the arith-
metic rate of decline (24). Extreme and arbitrary controls would be
necessary—a totalitarian type government. Obviously it is far easier, and
more compatible with the almost universal desire for personal freedom,
diversity, and for multiple choices, to keep population and industry levels
that permit the optimum use of the limited supply of resources which yield
intangible values than it is to allow excessive growth, then attempt to
remove some of that growth and restore intangible values in order to gain
optimum livability.
Summary of Carrying Capacity Analysis
The principal assumptions and results of the analysis are summarized as
follows:
1. A per capita share of annual GRP equal to $9500 is required to attain
the benchmark quality of life standard. This is equivalent to $7500 annual
per capita income, apportioned as shown in Tables 2 and 3.
2. Because of technological and economic limitations a maximum ar-
tificial pollution control of 80% is assumed attainable. Pollution in a region
is calculated in pollution units as: GRP (1-PC)-(the pollution absorbed
naturally). PC is the pollution control expressed as a decimal fraction. Thus
in 1965, with a GRP of $20.5 billion, no pollution control and 17 pollution
units absorbed naturally, there were 3.5 pollution units in the Pacific Nor-
thwest.
3. The capacity of the Pacific Northwest for GRP was estimated to be ap-
proximately $116 billion.
4. The capacity of the Pacific Northwest for intangible purposes was
estimated at 10 million residents with 25% use of resources by non-
residents.
123
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5. The number of servant machines per capita is estimated as (share of
GRP)/($250)-(1.0). Thus in 1965 with a per capita share of GRP equal to
$3520 the number of servant machines per capita was equal to
(3520)/(250)-1 = 13. It was also pointed out that as the number of servant
machines increases the pollution they produce must be controlled. Another
way of stating this is that the impact per servant machine must be no more
than 1-PC.
6. Given the constraints; a) maximum pollution control achievable is 80%
and b) pollution must be kept at 1965 level, then the GRP of the Pacific
Northwest must not rise above $85 billion.
Alternative Goals for the Pacific Northwest
Within the constraint of the benchmark qualify of life, there are many
alternative goals for the Pacific Northwest. Some choices are summarized
in Table 6.
Note that in 1965, with no artificial pollution control, the natural systems
absorbed 17 pollution units and 3.5 units were not absorbed, It would
require 17% artificial pollution control to reduce the region pollution to
zero.
Cases number 1, 2, 3, 5 show conditions for pollution control at 2, 3, 4
and 5 times the 17% required for no pollution in 1965. In each case the
GRP sustainable for no pollution is given. The a, b (and c in case 5) alter-
natives show the population sustainable for several alternative per capita
share of GRP. Cases 5 and 6 present the same information for 80%
(maximum achievable) and 95% pollution control. Obviously 95% control
represents over-control if the GRP remains $116 billion.
For each case, the number of servant machines per capita and the
required impact limitations of the servant machines is also given.
The apparent optimum set of conditions is given in case 4b. The
population of 9 million is less than the capacity for intangible purposes,
with a 10% margin. Per capita share of GRP equals our benchmark stan-
dard for quality of life, and each person has 37 servant machines.
Technology would have to be developed to achieve 80% pollution control
(and 20% servant machine impact).
Similar data, showing sustainable population as a function of share of
GRP for several levels of pollution control are shown in Figure 8.
The carrying capacity estimates in this study are not "fixed for all time";
neither is the benchmark definition of quality of life, nor the 80% ceiling on
reduction of adverse effects of production. As new knowledge, new
methods of resource management, new technology, and better un-
derstanding of man's social and environmental needs are discovered,
124
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Table 6. Estimated Capacity of Pacific Northwest Natural Resources to Sup-
port Population and Gross Regional Product With Different Percentages of
Pollution Control
en
Case No.
1965
Assuming no
pol lution
control
1965
With
Pol lution
Control
la
b
2a
b
3a
b
4a
b
5a
b
c
6a
b
c
Population
(Millions)
5.8
5-8
5.1
2.7
6.9
3-7
10. 4
5.6
16.7
9.0
22.7
12.2
6.9
22.7
12.2
6.9
Per Capita
Share GRP
in 1965 $
$ 3,520
3,520
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
5,100
9,500
16,700
5,100
9,500
16,700
Percent of
Pol lution
Control
0
17
34
34
51
51
68
68
80
80
85
85
85
95
95
95
Total
GRP
(Billion $)
$ 20.5
20.5
26
35
53
85
116
116
Pol lution
Units
In Region
3-5
0
0
0
0
0
0
-11
Servant Machines
Per Capita
No.
13
13
19
37
19
37
19
37
19
37
19
37
66
19
37
66
% Impact
Per Machine
100%
83
66
66
49
49
32
32
20
20
15
15
15
5
5
5
-------
25
20 -
to
•ry
O
I
Z
O
ID
Q.
O
Q.
15 -
10 -
5 ~
PERCENTAGES INDICATE
LEVEL OF
ARTIFICIAL POLLUTION CONTROL
I
5
I
15
20
PER CAPITA SHARE OF GRP-THOUSANDS OF 1965 DOLLARS
Figure 8. Carrying Capacity With Four Levels of Pollution Control
126
-------
thoroughly tested and proven, adjustments should be made. For example, a
percentage correction factor could be applied to the $250 per servant
machine if actual experience demonstrates that the Pacific Northwest gross
product mix in the future has a different adverse effect per servant machine
than in 1965. However, the assumption should not be made that new
knowledge will always make possible upper adjustments in growth of
population and production. The opposite could occur.
Carrying Capacity Implications for Policy
Although the carrying capacity concept is in its infancy and is untested
as far as the population, economic activity, and intangibles (amenities) of a
large geographic area is concerned it is not too early to speculate about
the practical aspects of implementation. Peterson's recommendations for
future goals, policy and implementation techniques are presented below.
Incentives and Other Tools Available
Even a cursory examination reveals a number of means that are presently
available to provide financial and other incentives and guidance for the
desired direction and rate for population and industrial growth or no-growth
within a region. The most obvious of these are listed below. These are
proven techniques fully in accord with traditional democratic principles.
Most of them have long been used in the United States to promote or ac-
commodate growth and development. They are equally available to dampen
or channel that growth but have not been used consistently for such a pur-
pose. They would apply equally to both residents and potential new
residents. Most of them could induce feedback in the market system that
would slow or halt the more damaging kinds of growth. Obviously there are
other techniques which would be undemocratic or unconstitutional (such
as a quota system with gates at the borders). The techniques include:
1. Full public information and education about resources, population,
pollution, and growth potential.
2. Legislation. (Example: land use planning and zoning, environmental
policy, growth policy.)
3. Encouragement or discouragement of growth in population or in-
dustry in a specific region or locality, both urban and rural, by public of-
ficials. (Example: advertisements in national magazines.)
4. Organization of executive departments of government—Federal,
state, and local. (Example: regional and multi-state associations of govern-
ments.)
5. Location and capacity of highways, waterways, airports, railroads,
ports, and other transportation facilities.
127
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6. Availability of credit for development projects.
7. Availability and cost of electric power and other forms of energy.
8. Availability, cost, and control of water supplies.
9. Financial and other incentives for new industries on the one hand or
special charges or requirements on the other.
10. Urban and rural land use development controls such as subdivision
and zoning regulations, and covenants in land titles,
11. Public acquisition or disposal of key tracts of land, and control of
resource development, settlement and use of lands in public ownership.
12. Enactment and enforcement of anti-pollution laws and regulations
and use of effluent and emission charges.
13. Regulation of land speculation and real estate promotion,
14. Tax policies.
15. Policies for providing public services such as schools, hospitals,
communication facilities, waste disposal facilities, and welfare benefits.
16. Policies concerning family planning by residents.
Of the 16 possible tools listed above, the indispensible elements appear
to be as a minimum (1) full public information, (2) a popular consensus of
what the goals should be, and (3) effective land use and energy planning
and controls.
The fact that proven tools are available does not mean that long range
growth goals will magically evolve and the tools to implement them
automatically be used for such purpose. A major and constantly increasing
multi-pronged effort by influential persons and interests representing a
cross section of our society would be essential.
Need for Public Information
To set a solid foundation for such a sustained effort we need, in the
opinion of the author, to give first priority to full public information and
education about resources, population, pollution, and growth potential.
Also we must have a solid foundation of facts to support conclusions. In
many instances such facts can be obtained only with more research and
field tests, particularly interdisciplinary, and using synthesis and deductive
techniques. The interrelationship between natural resources, science and
technology, population, economic growth, and quality of life needs much
more attention at all educational levels.
At all levels we need to replace the rhetoric and exaggeration of both the
instant environmentalists and the reactionary addicts of exponential growth
with solid facts.
Needed Legislation and Reorganization
In the legislative and organization area I think first priority should be a
national land use policy act plus compatible state legislation.
128
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Organizationally, in my opinion, we need Departments of Natural Resour-
ces, both nationally and at the state levels. These departments offer hope
for much better coordination in our land use, energy, water, and air policies
and programs. We also need effective organization for coordinated
management of natural resources in multi-state regions, and at the state
level, for multi-county regions.
At the national level there needs to be better coordination among all
responsible agencies at all levels. We need reliable indices for en-
vironmental quality as well as for economic activity and for natural resource
supply. (The latter provides the foundation for the other two.) We must be
able to assess the consequences of increased activity in one category
upon the other two and to measure the trade-offs.
Assuming that land use policy acts are enacted, Departments of Natural
.Resources created, and better correlation between environmental quality,
economic activity, and natural resource supply attained, we will need a
large number of qualified agents to help explain the situation at the grass
roots level over a period of years. An example of a highly successful
program of this type is the Cooperative Extension Service sponsored by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture and the land grant universities. This service
to farmers in the last 50 years has brought about a benevolent revolution in
agricultural production in the United States. Couldn't a similar approach be
equally beneificial in urban and rural land use and water and energy plan-
ning (including population and economic growth and environmental
quality)? Do we need a national land and water resources council and sub-
sidiary regional commissions?
Needed Research and Methodology Development
Regardless of whether carrying capacity concepts are adopted
nationally, regionally, by states, or not at all, it appears to me that new in-
formation and different ways of assimilating the information would be highly
useful. Much of such effort may be considered in the category of research
1 Economic activity, environmental quality, and natural resource supply
indices should be on a par (receive equal emphasis) and be based on a
common framework of data compilation, assumptions, methodology, and
language so that one can be readily compared with the other two and ac-
curate interrelationships and trade-offs determined. All official reports,
statistics, etc., should reflect this common framework.
2. A common natural resource inventory data system used by all
national, regional, state, and local planning and program agencies and
private interests is needed as is a system for keeping it updated con-
tinuously.
3. There needs to be a standard definition of various categories and
subcategories of pollutants.
129
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4. A technique for determining capacity of natural systems to assimilate
various categories of pollutants without degrading natural ecosystems
needs to be perfected.
5. A system is needed for measuring the percentage of existing ar-
tificial pollution control by various categories and subcategories.
6. Accurate methods for determining the technological and economic
upper limits for artificial control of various categories of pollutants are
needed. Also some method for weighing the various categories to get an
overall figure would be very useful.
7. A common system for monitoring all major types of pollutants and
several subcategories is needed.
8. The relationships between natural resources and economic activity
need considerable clarification. In particular the natural resources which
support "industries based upon location" need attention. Also, the per-
centage relationships between "basic" and "secondary" industries and
potential future changes has had inadequate study. All studies in this
category should be multidisciplinary and not left as the exclusive province
of economists.
9. The extent to which the carrying capacity of various renewable
natural resources can be increased and the life of non-renewable resour-
ces extended by management intensity, science and technology, con-
servation, and recycling is a fertile field for research.
10. The carrying capacity of various categories of renewable natural
resources in terms of human use and enjoyment needs to be determined.
11. A considerable effort should be devoted to studying "optimums" for
the long range future in terms of per capita income (with various sub-
categories) and intangibles (with various subcategories).
130
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Notes for Chapter 3
1. Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems, "Man's Impact
on the Global Environment", MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1970.
2. Caldwell, L K., "Environment: A Challenge to Modern Society",
American Museum of Natural History, the National History Press,
1970.
3. It is emphasized that the "servant machine" is only a convenient
illustration and is not a central issue in developing the carrying
capacity concept.
4. Business Week, October 24, 1970. Also, "Economic Report of The
President", 1971.
5. Gabor, Denis, "The Mature Society", Praeger, 1972.
6. Hardin, Garrett, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, Vol. 162,
Dec. 13, 1968.
7. Committee on Resources and Man - Preston Cloud, Chairman, "Re-
sources and Man," National Academy of Sciences, W. H. Freeman &
Co., 1969.
8. SCEP (Report of Critical Environmental Problems), "Man's Impact on
the Global Environment," sponsored by the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, MIT Press, 1970.
9. Ehrlich and Ehrlich, "Population, Resources, Environment," W. H.
Freeman & Co., 1970,
10. Commoner, Barry, "The Closing Circle," Alfred Knopf, 1971.
11. Goldsmith, Edward, et al., "A Blueprint for Survival," The Ecologist,
January, 1972.
12. "Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, Final
Report" The New American Library, Inc., March, 1972.
13. Seckler, David W., & Barkley, Paul W., "Economic Growth and En-
vironmental Decay," Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc., 1972.
14. See Chapter VIII, Population, Growth, and Resources "The First Annual
Report of the Council on Environmental Quality", August, 1970.
15. An example is the July 17, 1970, report to the President by the
National Goals Research Staff entitled "Toward Balanced Growth:
Quantity with Quality." Another example is the March 1970 report of
the California Select Committee on Environmental Quality, which
recommends an amendment to the State Constitution providing an
"Environmental Bill of Rights." A third is a sketch version of a plan for
the future of California to the year 2000 developed by the organization
California Tomorrow, San Francisco, 1972.
131
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As Professor Elbert Bowden* observes, "Once he ventures into the,
realm of concepts to which meaningful numerical values cannot be
assigned, the regional economist loses the opportunity to apply much
of his specialized methodology. He is stripped of his aura of mysticism
and compelled to communicate with policy-makers and administrators
in their own language. Suddenly he is faced with the need to demon-
state his understanding of the real world workings of a broad range of
economic theory. It is easy to understand the desire to shy away from
such demanding circumstances."
* Professor of Economics, State University of New York, Fredonia, in Land
Economics Journal, May 1971.
16. Galbraith, John, "Economics and the Quality if Life," 5 Science, 1964.
17. McGregor, Douglas, "Leadership and Motivation," Massachusetts In-
stitute of Technology Press, Cambridge, Mass. (1966); also Maslow,
Abraham H, "Motivation and Personality," Harper & Row, New York
(1954).
The area in the five compartments does not represent the importance or
weight assigned to each. Only the most essential needs (not the
ultimate needs) at one level must be satisfied before attention is
devoted to needs at higher levels.The "most essential needs' in each
category vary widely between individuals and cultures.
18. A more detailed discussion of the rationale used to apportion the in-
come can be found in "Ecology and the Economy", Appendix 5,
prepared by E. K. Peterson for the Pacific Northwest River Basins
Commission.
19. An illustration of pollution control limitations is the air quality of the
Los Angeles basin. Despite heroic measures since the early 1950's air
quality has steadily deteriorated. From 1966 to 1970 an overall reduc-
tion was made in atmospheric hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide but
this was more than canceled out by a sharp increase in nitrogen
oxides (a major component of photochemical smog). From "The
Closing Circle," by Barry Commoner.
20. Energy consumption per capita is approximately proportional to per
capita income—Standard Oil Co., of California Bulletin, Summer 1970.
Also, report of National Economic Research Associates, Inc.,
Congressional Record, July 15, 1971.
21. Daly, Herman E., jn "Electric Power, Employment and Economic
Growth," before 1971 AAAS Convention. Also see Cong. Record, Feb.
8, 1972.
132
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22. Jones, Lawrence W., "Liquid Hydrogen as a Fuel for the Future,"
Science, Oct. 22, 1971, Vol. 174; Anderson, J. H., "The Sea Plant; A
Source of Power, Water and Food Without Pollution," International
Solar Energy Conference, May 12, 1971.
23. "The First Annual Report of the Council on Environment Quality",
August 1970, Chapter IX, Land Use—The Natural Environment.
24. lltis, H. H.; Andrews, P; and Loucks, O. L; "Criteria for an Optimum
Environment," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January, 1970.
133
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A
INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF
GROWTH POLICY
Introduction
The international dimension of national growth policies has two com-
ponents: international constraints or opportunities affecting our national
freedom of action, and effects of alternative national growth policies on the
world structure.
These two dimensions and their policy implications for environmental
policy were discussed by Lincoln Gordon in his paper invited for this
project. The material in this Chapter was taken from this paper.
The United States is not a closed and self-sufficient society, isolated from
the rest of the world. Although the proportion of our international economic
transactions to the total economy is smaller than for any other major in-
dustrial nation, except the Soviet Union, the absolute size of these tran-
sactions is the largest in the world. International interdependencies have a
major impact on our economic welfare. Even less are we an isolated society
in terms of security, of the flow of knowledge and ideas, and of political and
social currents.
It follows that the international dimensions of growth policy should not be
treated as afterthoughts, or as minor adjustments to completed domestic
policies to take account of residual impacts abroad. They should rather be
incorporated from the start as an integral element of policy making. In prac-
tical terms, that requires participation at the earliest stages by persons
knowledgeable in the attitudes and interests of our principal foreign part-
ners and competitors and sensitive to the dangers and opportunities
created by our external relations.
The international dimension has two major components: (1) the in-
ternational impact on national policies, which on the one hand places con-
straints on our freedom of action, though it also opens wider opportunities
for meeting national aspirations than could be accomplished by national ac-
tion alone; and (2) the effects of alternative national growth policies on the
shaping of a world structure which is conducive or antagonistic to the
achievement of national goals.
135
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The International Impact of National
Growth Policy Alternatives
Before considering the international dimension of growth policy, it may
be useful to recapitulate the principal elements determining the rates and
directions of growth, most of which have some degree of international in-
terdependency. The major determinants of the rate of growth are (1) the
scale and character of investment; (2) the education and health of the
people; (3) technological change; (4) the quality and cost of available
natural resources (those four elements together largely determining
productivity); (5) the size of the labor force; (6) the proportion of the labor
force employed; and (7) the hours of work. In analyzing direction of growth,
the major categories to bear in mind are (1) the distribution of output among
primary products, manufactured goods, and services; and (2) the
distribution between private consumption and collective consumption, the
latter being subdivided between governmental defense and domestic ac-
tivities. Finally, there is the international impact through foreign trade in
goods and services, international investment, the international flow of
technology, and (now of relatively minor importance for the United States)
the migration of people and its effects on the labor force. It is through one
or another of those categories that national growth policies are constrained,
or enlarged, by the international dimension.
Increasing dependence on imported materials other than energy resour-
ces need not constrain otherwise desirable growth policies, provided that
action is taken to assure adequate worldwide production and availability to
the U.S. A vast expansion of oil imports could impose undesirable con-
straints for both economic and security reasons. It can and should be
limited in size and duration through measures of conservation in use and
expansion of domestic supplies, especially of low-sulphur coal, with ap-
propriate environmental safeguards.
Derived export dependence requires, in the short, term special attention
to continued agricultural efficiency and technological innovation in
manufacturing with a steady displacement of low by higher technology
production. For the longer term, international cooperation among all in-
dustrialized nations should look toward "growth control" to avoid growth
patterns desired by none but adopted by each for competitive balance-of-
payments reasons. Within the same grouping of OECD members,
cooperation is especially important in harmonizing environmental standards
and methods of regulation. Identical standards should not be sought in less
developed countries, and a degree of relocation to them of certain types of
polluting 4ndustries is not undesirable.
136
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Growth policies are interlocked with the world structure through (1)
problems of strategic security, (2) competition and cooperation among in-
dustrialized nations, and (3) the North-South relationship between the in-
dustrialized and the less developed nations. Nuclear proliferation is a
special concern under (1).
Within the industrialized group, competition should be tempered by
cooperation in resource extraction and conservation, environmental protec-
tion, and avoidance of trade distortions, together with harmonization of
broad growth objectives. There should also be more systematic exchanges
of information and experience on national growth issues.
The most serious long-term problems of the world structure arise from
growing bi-polarity between rich and poor countries. The major challenge is
to find ways of (1) extending the time period for adapting to ultimate
limitations on material growth, (2) accelerating the shift of the richer coun-
tries toward consumption patterns (services, leisure, etc.) at lower material
growth rates, and (3) developing new international economic relationships
which can reconcile slower material growth in the industrialized countries
with faster material growth (and more effective population control) in the
less developed regions. This may ultimately imply significant global in-
dustrial relocation.
On all fronts, there is need for clarification of alternatives, improvement of
adjustment mechanisms, and identification of issues requiring strategic
discrete decisions. Process and institutions require intensive research
along with substantive issues of policy.
Implications of International Competition
The question of international competition centers on the inbuilt pressure
for maintaining competitive strength even if social preferences within the
nation might dictate otherwise.
Lest this be considered an unreal hypothesis, note the official Canadian
document on A Science Policy for Canada (the "Lamontagne report"),
reviewed in Science for January 12, 1973. The report calls for a "first
generation" policy during this decade aimed at promoting economic
growth, while a later volume not yet published is to describe policies
designed to serve a broader range of collective social needs. In Professor
iakoff's paraphrase: "Canada, has no choice but to keep abreast of the rest
of the world. As long as all other developed nations continue to exploit
science and technology for economic advantage, it would be imprudent for
Canada to stand aside from the competition.
137
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A similar concern is evident in the recent testimony of Pierre Rinfret to the
House Ways and Means Committee, to the effect that "American capital
would inevitably go into investment overseas as long as the tax laws
provide a faster recovery of capital there than in the United States."
As the richest country in the world, the United States is on the leading
edge of consumption patterns. Europe and Japan have witnessed
Americanization of their lifestyles since World War II, and the Soviet Union
and Eastern Europe now appear to be following suit. So are the more ad-
vanced of the less developed countries, at least among their middle and
upper classes. The merits of these consumption patterns may certainly be
disrupted. Since we are on the leading edge, we also have reason to be
more aware than others of their disadvantages along with their benefits.
Some portion of them may be attributed to advertising and social snobbery.
Abstracting from elitist conceptions of what truly constitutes the "good life,"
however, these patterns do appear to evoke a positive response among
consumers everywhere once incomes pass the range of $600 to $1000 per
capita.
Family incomes in the United States now average about $10,000. At the
"normal" real growth rate of 3 percent per capita per year, that figure
should multiply fourfold in less than fifty years. Clearly consumption pat-
terns would change markedly during such an evolution. To cite one im-
portant example, the number of registered automobiles per thousand in the
American population has risen from 188 in 1930 to 429 in 1970; if the rate
of increase of the last twenty years were to continue unaltered, we would
pass one per capita (including newborn babies) around the year 2005! It
seems plausible to assume that, long before family incomes average
$40,000 at present prices, there will be a substantial shift in preferences
toward leisure time over work time, toward services over goods, toward
higher environmental standards, and perhaps toward preferences for more
satisfying but possibly less productive (in the narrow economic sense) ways
of working.
Will international competition hold us back from adaptations we might
prefer along these lines? Does it, in other words, dictate a kind of mindless
pressure for growth, akin to the competition in armaments? Does it distort
the growth alternatives, driving away from environmental improvement and
other forms of collective consumption? Some international trade theorists
would argue that it cannot do so as long as foreign exchange rate changes
are available to equilibrate each nation's balance of payments. It might only
imply a more rapid closing of the gaps in world income levels, if other
nations maintained their commitment to conventional economic growth
while we relaxed ours.
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What is not clear is whether changes in foreign exchange rates and other
international economic adjustment mechanisms can adequately ac-
commodate structural adjustments of this type. It would be a paradox in-
deed if several of the advanced countries simultaneously had domestic
social preferences for slowing down conventional economic growth, but
each refrained from doing so because of fear for its balance of payments in
competition with the others. If there is validity to the analogy of the arms
race, the alternative suggests itself of some form of negotiated "growth con-
trol."
It takes no great stretch of the imagination to envisage within a decade or
two a degree of economic integration among all the open market in-
dustrialized countries at least as great as that which binds the members of
the European Community today. Just as the commitment to internal free
trade has pushed the European nations to efforts at harmonization of a wide
range of economic and social policies, including a start in the en-
vironmental field, similar pressures may develop in the larger framework of
the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Monetary unit would necessitate much more far reaching harmonization, ap-
proaching a confederal political structure, and that fact is at the root of the
difficulties in moving forward toward monetary unity in Europe. Short of
monetary unity, however, the realistic alternative to a substantial degree of
economic and social policy harmonization would probably have been a
breakdown before now in the Common Market itself. If the conception of
technology assessment emerges from its present chrysalis into operational
machinery in various of the industrialized nations, international
collaboration among the responsible authorities might constitute the first
faltering steps toward some form of coordinated "growth control."
The expression "growth control" is obviously not intended to suggest
that growth is bad or wasteful, as armaments beyond the requirements for
internal security would be in a rational and peaceful world. The analogy is
valid only for those forms of growth which all components of an international
community would prefer to limit if they were making the decision on purely
domestic grounds. I would personally place the supersonic air transport in
that category, as a clearly uneconomic mode of transportation with
questionable environmental effects, which I suspect neither the Soviet
Union, France, Britain, nor the United States would ever have undertaken in
the absence of concern for international competition, prestige, or their
respective balance of payments.
Environmental Standards
The international dimension imposes two kinds of constraints on en-
vironmental policies. There is a range of measures whose effectiveness
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requires international collaboration, such as ocean pollution control,
regional air and water control crossing national boundaries (e.g. in the
Great Lakes), and global monitoring. Such matters comprised the bulk of
the 1972 agenda for the United Nations Stockholm Conference on the
Human Environment.
The second category is a specialized but very important subset of the
broad issues: the effects of international competition in limiting national
freedom of action to take otherwise desirable measures for environmental
protection. Differing standards for pollution control are a new factor af-
fecting relative costs and the comparative position of producers in different
countries. At the same time, the severity of pollution is not uniform among
countries, and environmental concerns have a lower priority in some than in
others.
It would be fanciful to expect world-wide agreement on tolerable ambient
air or water pollution limits or on specific process or product standards. Nor
is there any rational basis for seeking to impose such uniformity. Poorei
countries in particular may understandably accept some pollution as a
tolerable cost of industrialization, raising agricultural productivity, and
promoting economic growth generally.
The potential effects on trade and investment patterns depend partly on
the nature of the controls (whether imposed on products, processes or ef-
fluents) and the method of payment of the costs (whether by the industry
concerned, and therefore its consumers, or by the general public in the
producing countries through taxation and government subsidies). Specific
product or process inspection requirements can also easily become a
disguised form of international economic protectionism.
There is some reason to believe that the overall effects of environmental
controls on the United States balance of payments are not likely to be very
large, even with less stringent policies being applied by our principal com-
petitors. The effects on specific industries and firms, however, can be
critical, including in extreme cases the relocation of existing plants and in
many more cases the decisions on location of new plants. These effects in
turn create new pressures for trade and investment protectionism.
Among the more industrialized nations, systematic collaboration is
clearly in order to minimize undesirable international economic distortions
resulting from national environmental controls. In general, product stan-
dards are to be preferred to process standards. Where goods are heavily
traded, product standards should be as uniform as possible; and abatement
or control costs should generally be borne by producers (and therefore
passed on to consumers) rather than offset by government subsidies (1).
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has
already endorsed the "polluter pays" principle as a guideline to member
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governments, although the implementation still leaves a good deal to be
desired. The OECD Environmental Committee also provides a most useful
forum for ongoing intergovernmental consultation and exchange of in-
formation, and a promising foundation for the kinds of international
collaboration suggested here.
When it comes to the less developed countries, however, the issues are
more complex. In many of them, industrial activities are so slight that both
air and water could absorb much larger quantities of industrial waste
without passing thresholds of natural absorption or dispersion. For the
same reasons that a rational domestic environmental policy would favor
dispersion of large population concentrations and decentralization of in-
dustrial production complexes, it could be argued that a rational world en-
vironmental policy would favor a broader distribution of high-pollution in-
dustries. Moreover, poor societies are bound to give lower relative priority
to long-term environmental considerations than to short-term expansion of
production and incomes. Hence the possibilities of "exporting pollution" or
of "pollution havens" in less developed countries.
In considering national growth alternatives, it would be unwise to give
blanket approval or blanket condemnation to international industrial
relocation on environmental grounds. Where the pollution concerned in-
volves serious global hazards (e.g., toxic heavy metals), the process should
be altered to eliminate such pollution regardless of its location. Where new
control technology can produce satisfactory products at comparable costs,
it would be absurd to export the old technology to new locations; less
developed countries should not repeat the environmental errors of our own
past. Where the negative side effects in the new location are substantial, the
country concerned should certainly be encouraged to evaluate them fully
before initiating a new investment, again learning from the mistakes of the
more industrialized nations. That evaluation, however, will be in terms of the
standards of the less developed country, which may be quite different from
those appropriate to a more advanced nation. But there is almost certainly a
significant class of industrial activities whose pollution effects are localized
and in which advanced country environmental standards do add con-
siderably to product costs. In such cases, it is hard to see why a com-
parative advantage in justifiably lower environmental standards in the less
developed countries should not be a legitimate factor in international in-
dustrial location.
Japan has already begun to encourage the shift of some pollution-
intensive industries to the Asian mainland, along with the low productivity
labor-intensive industries already mentioned. Her tight employment
situation, exceptionally heavy pollution, and strong balance-of-payments
position in recent years has made such a policy easier than it would be in
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the United States today. Its implementation evidently requires effective
arrangements for local adjustment, retraining, and reemployment of any
displaced workers and capital. Like most such adaptations, it is a line of
policy much easier to apply to the location of incremental new investments
than to the relocation of existing ones. The institutional mechanisms which
might be involved include measures for foreign investment financing or
guarantees, the international financial institutions (especially the World
Bank and the international Regional Banks), and consultation between
government agencies and multinational corporations. In any event, the
questions of industrial relocation, both domestic and international, are
major matters for continuing research and identification of policy issues as
part of the consideration of national growth alternatives.
International Cooperation: Straitjacket or Opportunity
Several of the foregoing sections have pointed to the desirability of in-
ternational cooperation as part of national growth policy making. That
suggestion always raises the specter of excessive constraint on national
freedom. In the real world, moreover, the difficulties of securing in-
ternational agreement, the painfully slow pace of deliberation, and the
notoriously low efficiency (measured by output per unit of effort) of in-
ternational institutions often makes national authorities reluctant even to
contemplate any derogation of sovereignty.
Yet the trends fostered by technology and economic development all
point toward continuously greater international interdependence. In these
circumstances, the right kind of international cooperation can be more
liberating than constraining; it can on balance enlarge the potential for
meeting national aspirations. It is particularly effective in functional areas
when the participants in international negotiation include those directly
responsible for the corresponding domestic policies, as well as foreign of-
fices concerned with the overall framework of international relationships.
Implications of National Alternatives
for the World Structure
Let us turn now to the other side of the coin: the effects of national
growth alternatives on the world structure. The United States is neither
isolated nor self-sufficient in any major dimension: security, environmental,
economic, or ideological. The world framework affects our freedom of
choice for better or worse. As the most powerful national unit in both military
and economic terms, we exercise—by commission or omission—more in-
fluence than any other single nation on the shape of that framework. We can
no longer lead by ourselves, but our co-leadership is indispensable. And
as the highest income society in the world, with wider margins for
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discretionary expenditure, we are freer than others to develop new'patterns
and directions of growth without sactificing universally felt basic needs.
Growth Alternatives and Strategic Security
Strategic security is a powerful source of pressure for economic growth, a
massive diverter of resources from the satisfaction of human needs, and a
substantial user of scarce material resources and generator of en-
vironmental pollution. In a world of sovereign nation-states, it is an un-
fortunate but inescapable necessity, which can never be left out of account
in considering national growth alternatives. Environmental concerns are
simply an added weight in favor of maximum efforts for qualitative and
quantitative arms limitations among the actual or potential major powers.
Security concerns may have other impacts on growth policies. A notable
example is the relation between nuclear fission waste management and the
dangers of nuclear arms proliferation. It is not implausible that by ten or
twenty years hence, the major element in strategic arms posture will no
longer be the maintenance of mutual deterrence between the Soviet Union
and the United States, but instead a joint effort by the superpowers to offset
and control the widespread proliferation of nuclear arms to lesser nations
(or even organized groups other than governments). Such a posture might
be as costly as the present one and considerably more unstable. It follows
that the avoidance of proliferation should be given great weight in the
choice among energy supply alternatives.
The greatest solvent to security concerns would obviously be a world
structure sufficiently favorable to a variety of national aspirations and in-
volving so complex a web of interdependencies that no nation would be
tempted to alter it by violent means. That is a distant ideal pending which
defensive power must continue to play a large role. The balance between
the essentially negative factor of defensive power and the positive factor of
mutuality of interest, however, will be greatly influenced by various national
policies toward rates and directions of growth.
Cooperation and Competition among
the Industrialized Nations
Implicit in the earlier discussion is recognition of a mixture of competitive
and cooperative relationships among the United States and the other major
industrialized areas, notably Europe, Japan, Canada, and the Soviet Union.
In these days of chronic balance-of-payments deficit and monetary crisis, it
would be superfluous to emphasize how severely our short-run economic
policies are constrained by international considerations. Nor should com-
petition be opposed as such; it has been and can be a very healthy stimulus
to constructive innovation and to efficiency in the allocation and use of all
kinds of scarce resources. Just as federal regulation forbids child labor as
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,an instrument of interstate competition within the United States, however,
some kind of international governance is required to avoid destructive com-
petition among the industrialized countries while encouraging constructive
competition.
Some of the needed forms of cooperation have already been suggested:
technological development in resource extraction and conservation; en-
vironmental protection standards and avoidance of trade distortions; and
harmonization of broad growth policies to fit shifts in preferences in the en-
tire community of advanced nations ("growth control"). Although it may still
be at an early stage, there is evidence in all these countries of what Hugo
Thiemann terms a "change of phase"—away from an exclusive focus on
conventional economic growth as measured by GNP per capita and toward
a balancing of such growth with other objectives. Some of those are simply
compositional shifts within GNP as presently measured, including a larger
proportion of health, educational, and recreational services. Others are not
properly measured by GNP, although they might be, such as some forms of
environmental improvement. Still others may detract from conventionally
measured growth, such as added leisure, participation versus hierarchy in
management decisions, or changing attitudes toward work.
There is obviously room for a great deal of diversity in the way in which
such changing preferences are implemented in various societies. It would
scarcely be desirable that international machinery should force the pace in
some or delay all to the pace of the slowest. What is indicated, however, is
cooperation to avoid a lag imposed on all through competitive pressures
desired by none.
International cooperation can also assist national adjustments through
learning from one another's experience. In the Netherlands and France, for
example, the national planning organizations (whose basic charter is for in-
dicative rather than directive planning) are trying to analyze the interactions
among broad national goals and to quantify the linkages and trade-offs so
that policy decisions on growth can be made with better awareness of their
entire spectrum of indirect as well as direct consequences. Japan is un-
dertaking major new experiments in industrial relocation. It is well to bear in
mind Kenneth Boulding's prophecy that "Japan has had the most rapid
voyage through this social space of development, so it is likely to be one of
the first societies which will have to face the problems of reentry and of
establishing a new, high-level, much more stable, conservation-minded
society ... a more 'looped' economy in which the waste products of
society, both material and psychological, will have to be re-cycled and used
as raw materials in a continuing circular process (2). In general, while
European and Japanese income levels are below ours, their higher den-
sities of population are making them face some issues of urban over-
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concentration and industrial pollution earlier than we. There is no monopoly
on social wisdom, and all stand to gain from maximum interchange of ex-
perience, including failures as well as successes, in such fields as
population dispersion, land use control, mass transportation, urban im-
provement, energy conservation, pollution abatement incentives, job
satisfaction, and other aspects of growth policy.
The most important single area for cooperation among the industrialized
countries, however, has to do with their relations with the rest of the world.lt
is on the North-South axis that the gravest issues arise relating alternative
growth policies to the world structure.
Directions of Growth in a Bipolar World
Foreign policy attention is currently focused on relations among the five
"great power" areas of North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe,
China, and Japan. The avoidance of war among any pair of these nations or
regions is obviously the most urgent short-term requirement of a viable
world structure. If that can be accomplished, however, it is much easier to
visualize a workable affirmative relationship among the industrialized
nations, especially the three open-market groups, than between them and
the less developed countries. Many of the present trends suggest in-
creasing global bipolarity. In the richer nations there live about one billion
people with per capita incomes in the $1,0.00 to $5,000 range, confident of
a fairly steady pace of continuous growth, and with birth rates only slightJy in
excess of mortality. In contrast, there are almost three billions in the poorer
nations, with per capita incomes between $50 and $500, great uncertainty
as to their growth prospects, and very high rates of population increase. The
intermediate category of semi-industrialized nations, mostly in Latin
America and the Middle East, is painfully small.
Even if overall growth rates favored the less developed nations, the dif-
ference in population growth would probably more than offset this ad-
vantage. And even if the per capita growth rates favored the less developed
countries, the disparity in the base is so enormous that the absolute dif-
ference in living standards would continue to increase for many decades.
Mass famine is still an imminent possibility in several of the less developed
.regions, and mass malnutrition is more common than not. Levels of
education, health, housing, and all the other indexes of measurable social
welfare display a corresponding bipolarity. Political polarization between
rich and poor is becoming the standard experience of the United Nations
and its specialized agencies.
How might these relationships evolve in the middle'term, say twenty to
fifty years? Three broad alternative scenarios come to mind. A continuation
of present trends would suggest a general confrontation between rich and
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poor on many fronts. A second possibility would involve clusters of less
developed countries as satellites of each of the major powers, with
preferential trade and investment relations and mutual security pacts
providing some binding force for each cluster. The third possibility—most
difficult but most desirable—would unite both rich and poor in a world
structure offering significant benefits to all its members.
Which course the North-South relationship may follow will be critically in-
fluenced by policies on rates and directions of growth.
The accelerated shift away from material growth in the richer countries
will be encouraged through market forces by the inclusion of full en-
vironmental costs in product prices and by the gradual rise in materials
costs. Market forces alone, however, are unlikely to suffice. To give an ob-
vious example, a shift from automotive commuting to mass transit needs not
only an increase in the cost of the former, but also major investments in
mass transit systems which entail strategic decisions by the appropriate
political authorities. Nor is it clear that full environmental costs can always
be included in product prices. It is easy to visualize air pollution abatement
and marginal energy extraction costs being included in automobile and
gasoline prices but not so easy when it comes to the indirect costs of urban
strangulation.
To the extent that the shifts involve collective rather than individual con-
sumption, fiscal and budgetary policy can go a long way, provided that the
full implications of choices are clarified for the public and legislative
authorities. It is interesting in this connection that the Dutch trade union
leadership, more sophisticated than most, is reported to prefer that three-
quarters of the expected four percent annual increase in output be devoted
to improvements in educational opportunities, environmental protection,
and social security, taking only one-quarter in additional individual in-
comes. On the plane of work versus leisure, there is need for institutional
arrangements to provide greater freedom of choice in working hours, the
arrangement of the work week, holiday schedules, and age of retirement.
What is clearly not wanted is involuntary "leisure" in the form of unem-
ployment. The kinds of issues involved here are largely domestic rather
than international, although international exchanges of experience can be
most useful in informing domestic policy making.
The most difficult aspect of the broad transition envisaged here is the
development of new international economic patterns to maintain or ac-
celerate material growth in the less developed countries while it slackens
off in the industrialized nations. Present patterns are not so designed. The
key economic bottlenecks in the poorer regions today are foreign exchange
earnings and availability of capital, both of which are positively correlated
with high material growth rates in the industrialized countries. Such growth
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improves the market and terms of trade for primary product exports from the
less developed countries, eases their access to markets for labor-intensive
manufactured goods in the richer nations, and facilitates governmental and
private capital transfers. There is no logical incongruity in an altered pattern
favoring higher material growth in the less developed countries, but how to
achieve it requires concerted thought and new forms of international
cooperation.
Economic market forces are the best-known examples of smooth ad-
justment mechanisms, but in some fields analogous results may flow from
decentralized political decision-making within a sound framework of
national or international guidelines. Many economic markets are very im-
perfect, fail to include all relevant costs and do not signal the future suf-
ficiently far in advance to permit corrective measures to be taken in time.
Process and institutions, therefore, require at least as much research and
innovation as specific substantive policies. Given the rudimentary state of
evolution of the world order, that may be even more true on the international
than on the domestic front. At the same time, the increasing complexity of
technology, the increasing Interdependence of nations, and the diminishing
margins of resource and environmental tolerance as population and
economic growth press against the biosphere suggest that a growing class
of strategic and often irreversible decisions will have to be identified and
subjected to the most rigorous analysis of their direct and indirect con-
sequences. The creation of both national and international institutions for
this purpose is the greatest single challenge in the development of policies
toward national and world growth alternatives.
Implementing International-Oriented Growth
The best means for handling the international dimension in such cases
will depend on the institutional arrangements designed mainly for domestic
reasons; it would be foolish to suppose that the international tail should
always swing the domestic dog. The critical point is that the international
dimension not be treated as an afterthought, but be built in from the start as
an integral element in any policy-making machinery intended to guide
national growth or to select among national growth alternatives. There are
no existing governmental or private institutions in the United States at-
tempting to formulate such comprehensive growth policies. If such an
organization were established it would obviously deal with a much longer
time-frame than the four principal comprehensive policy agencies that now
exist (the Office of Mnagement and Budget; the Council of Economic Ad-
visers; the Council on Environmental Quality; and the National Security
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Council). To have any real impact on operating decisions, any long-term
growth policy agency would require organic ties to these present agencies,
to the major sectoral operating departments (such as Transportation, Hous-
ing and Urban Development, Interior, Commerce, Agriculture, and Health,
Education, and Welfare), and to the Congress (including the new Office Of
Technology Assessment).
Without specific proposals for such machinery, which would be judged
mainly on domestic grounds, it is not possible to specify how best to in-
corporate the international dimension. The following points, however, in-
dicate some of the specific actions and institutional mechanisms (some
existing and some new) appropriate to the suggested lines of policy.
Import Dependence: The Materials Problem
1. Stockpiling of and substitution for exotic imported materials. Stock-
piling could be handled by existing machinery (successor to Office of
Emergency Preparedness for this purpose). Research might be in
Bureau of Standards or stimulated through NSF program of Research
Applied to National Needs (NSF/RANN).
2. Conservation of depletable minerals, including incentives to and
research on recycling and process and product improvement. This is
mainly a domestic policy field, in which EPA and CEQ are already
engaged. Removal or reversal of transportation rate preferences for
virgin materials is one obvious example of the several appropriate ac-
tions. Since primary material market prices are very sensitive to short-
term demand and supply fluctuations but do not provide adequate
long-term advance warnings of prospective scarcities, government-
sponsored research to anticipate shortages and facilitate conservation
is warranted to supplement normal market incentives in these direc-
tions.
3. Inclusion of baJance-of-payments considerations in environmental
decision-making affecting domestic versus imported materials sup-
plies. This should be one explicit criterion for possible exception to
otherwise desirable environmental quality standards, including federal
preemption of State or local standards where necessary. It would
require stern administration to reject specious claims or threats of
abandonment of individual mines or smelters. A floor might be
desirable setting a maximum limit to the degree of reduction in stan-
dards acceptable on balance-of-payments grounds. To justify
relaxation of standards, the import swing should be required to be of
significant magnitude. Formal endorsement might be required from
those units of the Departments of Interior and State involved in in-
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ternational study groups or international environmental coordinating
activities in relation to the specific material under review.
4. International cooperation in geological surveying. This point essen-
tially involves a review and possible intensification of efforts underway,
including resource surveys financed through the United Nations
Development Program, the application of earth resource satellite in-
formation to this end, bi-lateral technical assistance programs, and the
training of geologists from less developed countries. Other large
material importing nations should be persuaded to collaborate in
similar activities.
5. New relationships between multi-national corporations and host
governments, especially in less developed countries. These relation-
ships have been rapidly evolving in recent years, with the development
of new forms of concession contracts. They include arrangements for
joint ventures, management agreements coupled with long-term pur-
chase contracts, and arrangements for voluntary periodic
renegotiation. Primary material development should have priority in the
lending and guarantee activities of the Export-Import Bank and the
OPIC. Consideration might also be given to government guarantees in
the most risky cases to put a floor under possible future price fluc-
tuations. In addition, in view of the sensitivity of natural resource in-
dustries to political charges of exploitation, a larger involvement of the
World Bank and international Regional Banks should be sought in the
financing of materials development ventures.
6. Cooperation with other importing nation governments to avoid costly
scrambles for scarce materials. The first requirement here is for
organized cooperation in monitoring of market situations and
prospects. This can best be done through commodity study groups, a
number of which already exist. In order to avoid the political criticism of
apparent "buyers cartels" the principal supplying nation governments
should be invited to participate in such commodity study groups. The
main emphasis should be placed on assurance of adequate and
geographically diversified supplies, but in market crisis situations,
such as those that accompanied the Korean war, cooperation among
importers can avoid hoarding or other forms of non-productive com-
petitionjo coiner supplies.
7. Adjustment of bi-lateral economic policies in relation to major sup-
pliers. The importance of future raw materials supplies should be
regularly taken into account in the formulation of aid, technical
assistance, and investment policies. The appropriate locus of this
responsibility depends on the organization of foreign economic policy-
making generally, which is understood to be under review.
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8. Exploitation of deep seabed minerals. The responsibility for develop-
ment and negotiation of a United States position concerning some form
of international control regime rests with the Department of State as
part of its general preparations for the United Nations Conference on
the Law of the Seas scheduled to begin late this year. The Department
of the Interior works with the State Department in this effort. There have
been some informal discussions of a possible interim agreement
among the major countries with interest and potential for deep seabed
exploitation (Japan, Germany, and possibly others as well as the
United States).
9. Materials policy coordinating agency. The points made above suggest:
a need for some focussed responsibility to follow all aspects of supply
and demand for depletable materials and to recommend appropriate
action to the various operating agencies concerned. Since in almost all
cases supplies come partly from domestic sources and partly from
abroad, any such coordinating agency would have to deal with both
domestic and international aspects.
Energy Resources: The Critical Case
The establishment of an Energy Policy Coordinating Agency is an ob-
vious necessity and a prerequisite to implementation of the lines of policy
suggested below. It should have extensive powers for promotion and finan-
cing of research in the various energy sectors and authority for initiative as
well as conflict resolution among operating agencies. The issues involved
in adequate supply and conservation of energy are so pervasive, however,
that it would be foolish to suppose that all operating responsibilities effect-
ing energy could be consolidated in a single agency. The elements of
energy policy might include the following.
1. Energy conservation in use and in conversion to electric power. As
suggested above, market forces will work in this direction as relative costs
of energy rise, but they will work too slowly to accomplish the needed
results. A coordinated set of energy conservation policies would include
higher minimum standards for building insulation; a steeply graduated ex-
cise tax on automobile engine horsepower, phased in over a number of
years; greatly enlarged encouragement and financial help for the building of
intra-urban mass transit systems; incentives to shift freight transportation
from highways to railroads and inland waterways; more intensive research
on magneto-hydro dynamics; experimentation in local "total power
systems," etc. The NSF/RANN program is doing some work in these direc-
tions, but on much too small a scale.
2. Domestic fossil fuel expansion. The problem of price and other in-
centives for increased oil and gas exploration and production is both too
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complex and too well-known to require elaboration here. The major ad-
ditional need is for intensive expansion of use of low-sulphur western coal,
including appropriate public land policy changes to that end, greatly in-
tensified research in land reclamation from strip mining on low-slope dry
lands, and gasification and liquefaction. On the environmental policy side,
there is a strong case for federal preemption of environmental standards af-
fecting national energy supplies.
3. Deferral of commitment to major reliance on nuclear fission and
speeding up of research on long-term alternatives. The President's energy
message of June, 1971, placed major emphasis on nuclear fission,
especially with liquid metal breeder reactors, as the prime source of ex-
panded power supplies from the middle 1980's forward. Uncertainties with
respect to reactor safety, waste product control, and possible weapons
diversion suggest that a major commitment to applied nuclear fission
should be deferred until much more extensive technological and social
research demonstrates that its risks are acceptable. Given the ample sup-
plies of fossil fuels, nuclear fission need not be a major alternative to ex-
cessive oil imports for some decades to come. At the same time, it would
be desirable to enlarge research on nuclear fusion to the maximum that can
be usefully absorbed and also to intensify research on the effective use of
solar energy for both low-grade and power production purposes. The
Atomic Energy Commission and the National Science Foundation are
adequate instrumentalities for this purpose, given sufficient funds and
guidance from the energy policy coordinating agency mentioned above.
Geothermal energy should also be included in an enlarged research
program.
Derived Export Dependence
1. Stimulation of agricultural productivity and technological innovation in
manufacturing. Collaborative efforts should be developed among the
Departments of Agriculture and Commerce and the National Science Foun-
dation to identify and encourage promising research leads.
2. Displacement of labor-intensive industries to lower-wage countries.
Any policy working in this direction would require a more effective program
of industry adjustment assistance than has thus far been associated with in-
ternational trade legislation. If that condition could be met, so that displaced
labor and capital could be assured of opportunity for engaging in higher-
productivity work, market forces would largely accomplish the objective.
They might be reinforced through policies of the international financing in-
situtions, the Export-Import Bank, and the OPIC. It would also be helpful to
commission a special study of Japanese experience along these lines.
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International Competition and Long-Term Growth Policies
The concept of negotiated "growth control" among industrialized nations
set forth here requires research and informal exploration and consultation
as a preliminary to policy formulation and implementation. The needed
research would aim at the identification of areas of technical development
or product development not desired for domestic needs but being fostered
exclusively for international competitive reasons. It should also look for
cases in the converse, i.e., areas desired domestically but being retarded
for international competitive reasons. Exploration and consultation would
seek to identify corresponding areas in the principal competing nations,
especially "Western "Europe and Japan. If some or all of the governments
concerned establish formal agencies for technology assessment, those
agencies would be a major source of information for this purpose. Pending
that development, environmental protection agencies in the several coun-
tries would be a logical source. After the assemblage of information of this
type, the OECD would probably be the best forum for initiating intergovern-
mental discussions looking toward coordinated "growth control."
Environmental Standards
1. Environmental cooperation among industrialized countries. The EPA
and CEQ are already involved in international environmental policy
discussions along the lines suggested here. The OECD and the UN
Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) provide mechanisms for this pur-
pose, and a further one will be added when the United Nations environ-
mental program agency is established in Nairobi. In the forthcoming trade
negotiations on non-tariff barriers, there will be further opportunity to
negotiate the principles suggested here.
2. Export of certain types of polluting industries to I ess* developed coun-
tries. This topic will certainly be on the agenda of the new UN environmental
program agency, one of whose central concerns is the relationship between
environmental protection and economic development in the poorer coun-
tries. As stated previously, the questions of industrial relocation, both
domestic and international, are major matters for continuing research. The
aims of such research should be to clarify hazards, new technological
requirements and costs, and to identify activities suitable for relocation.
(Development of hydro-electric power in South America and Africa for
energy intensive electro-chemical and electro-metallurgical industries
suggests itself as one major possibility.)
Cooperation and Competition Among the Industrialized Nations
Several European countries and Japan are far ahead of the United States
in the development of long range analysis and planning on broad issues of
national growth and development, including land use control, transportation
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systems, and industrial location. Systematic research is indicated to can-
vass these experiences and to analyze the extent to which they might be ap-
plicable to American conditions.
Directions of Growth in a Bimodal World
This section sketches a number of major areas for needed ongoing
research concerning long-term growth alternatives. They include:
(1) Strategic sectors affecting long-term regional and global growth
limitations. To the items listed there should be added the fundamental issue
of atmospheric heating and climatological modification through energy use,
which might lead to the need to concentrate on solar energy, even at much
greater'Cost, as the ultimate reliance of mankind.
(2) A'second major area concerns ways and means to accelerate a shift
in growth patterns in the wealthier countries away from material-consuming
growth.
(3) The third major area concerns changes in international economic pat-
terns (trade, investment, industrial location, etc.) to permit more rapid
material-consuming growth.in the poorer countries.
Conclusion
These areas would be among the key concerns of any national long-term
growth policy agency that might be established, and should constitute a
major part of the agenda for the in-house and external research of any such
-agency. Pending trie creation of such an agency, a start might be made un-
der the auspices of NSF/RANN, supplemented in specific cases by resour-
ces from EPA and CEQ, other interested government agencies, and private
foundations and research centers.
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NOTES FOR CHAPTER 4
1. For a more extended discussion, see Allen V. Kneese and others,
Managing The Environment: International Economic Cooperation for
Pollution Control, Praeger, New York, 1971, especially chapters by
Kneese, Malmgren, and Eldin.
2. Kenneth E. Boulding, A Primer on Social Dynamics, Free Press, New
York, 1970.
Suggested Reading
LAIdelman, M.A., "Is the Oil Shortage Real?" Foreign Policy, Winter
1972-73, p. 69-107.
2. Akins, James E., "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf Is Here," Foreign
Affairs, April, 1973, p. 462-490.
3. Cook, Earl, "Energy for Millenium Three," Technology Review,
December, 1972. p. 16-23.
4. Development and Environment, Founex, Switzerland, June 1-12, 1971,
Environment and Social Sciences, The Hague, 1972.
5. Dorfman, Robert and Nancy S. Dorfman, Economics of the En-
vironment, Norton, 1972.
6. Faltermayer, Edmund, "The Energy 'Joyride' is Over," Fortune, Sep-
tember, 1972.
7. Fuel and Energy Resources, 1972, Hearings before the Committee on
interior and Insular Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-second
Congress, April, 1972.
8. Garvey, Gerald, Energy, Ecology, Economy W.W. Norton & Co., 235
1972.
9. Gregory, Derek P., "The Hydrogen Economy," Scientific American,
January, 1973, p. 13-21.
10. Hirst, Eric and John C. Moyers, "Efficiency and Energy Use in the
United States," Science, March 30, 1973, p. 1299-1304.
11. Levy, Walter J., "An Action Program for U.S. Energy Policy During the
Seventies," Address made during the 1972 Annual Meeting of the
American Petroleum Institute, Chicago, Illinois, November 13-14,
1972.
12. Novick, Sheldon, "Toward a Nuclear Power Precipice," Environment,
March, 1973, p. 33-40.
13. Ridgeway James, "The Last Play" E. P. Dutton, & Co., New York, 1973.
14. Rocks, Lawrence and Richard O. Runyon, The Energy Crisis, Crown
Publishers, New York, 1972, p. 177.
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15. Schurr, Sam H., Energy Research Needs, Resources for the Future
Inc., Washington, D.C., 1971.
16. Science, Growth, and Society, Report of the Secretary-General's Ad
Hoc Group on New Concepts of Science Policy, O.E.C.D., Paris, 1972.
17. U.N. Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, 1972,
A/CONF48/14.
18. US. Energy Report, A Report of the NATIONAL Petroleum Council's
Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook, December, 1972.
19. Weinberg, Alvin, "Social Institutions and Nuclear Energy," Science,
July 7, 1972, p. 27-43.
20. Weinberg, Alvin, "Long-Range Approaches for Resolving the Energy
Crisis, presented before the ASME Symposium, The Energy Crisis,
Long Term Solutions, New York, November 29, 1972.
21. World Energy Demands and the Middle East, the 26th Annual Con-
ference of the Middle East Institute, Washington, D.C., September 29-
30, 1972. Part I.
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COPING WITH ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
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I]
In Part 2 the implications of economics and human behavior for growth
policy and the environment are discussed.
In Chapter 5 Growth and Behavior are discussed by several authors
presenting several interesting and innovative concepts relating human
behavior to the environment and environmental policy. The editors com-
bined these somewhat disparate papers under a central theme that man's
short-range and self-centered thinking, sometimes enhanced by a lack of
commitment and responsibility, are primary behaviorial factors contributing
to environmental degradation. A second theme somewhat common to the
papers contained in this Chapter is man's emotional response to "crises".
The possibility of effecting a major change in the attitudes of society is
discussed by one author and he concludes that the crisis label may result in
no action. This happens because crisis denotes an impossible situation in
which one merely "hangs-on" and rides out the developments. In reality,
there is no crisis but an evolving problem which can be solved only by
diligent and continuous hard work.
The evolution of human consciousness and the brain are discussed in
another paper. The author relates evolution to population density, showing
that man created information and coded it into concepts that permitted new
social roles to limit social interactions to tolerable levels. He concludes that,
as evolution continues, man will be linked into a single, world-wide com-
munication network. Ability to function in this network and to manage his in-
creasingly multidisciplinary activities will require delineation of concepts
and the linkages among them.
In the final paper a systems viewpoint of human behavior is presented.
The concepts presented view man as sometimes reacting emotionally in
predictable fashion, not as he would like to picture himself, acting from
rational thought. What man does is often different from what he says he will
do. This author also concludes that the crisis label should be removed from
the environment to encourage more rational action.
In Chapter 6 the relationship between Growth and Economics are
discussed in some detail. The classical economic concepts, which will
continue to remain valid, are reviewed with emphasis on their effects on en-
vironmental planning. New concepts shaping new economic viewpoints are
also presented. The author applies the concept of entropy to economics,
concluding that waste accumulates faster than useful output but also con-
cludes that the situation is not hopeless. By applying knowledge and
energy we can escape the "entropy trap". The author reviews changes
which he expects will accompany growth, discusses the costs of change
and concludes that these costs can be borne, principally from added profits
realized from economic growth. In conclusion he outlines a proposal for a
government-business growth policy which could lead to an improved
quality of life.
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Another author introduces the concept of sustainable growth, defined as
economic growth which provides sufficient discretionary income per capita
to achieve a desired quality of life without environmental degradation. He
outlines action required now to achieve such growth. These recommenda-
tion include developing a concept of legacy for future generations and fin-
ding ways to coordinate goal-setting and planning functions to develop in-
dicative, integrative planning.
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5
GROWTH AND BEHAVIOR
Introduction
Short-range and self-centered thinking coupled with a lack of com-
mitment and responsibility are. primary factors of human behavior con-
tributing to environmental neglect and degradation. In this Chapter some of
the major reasons for these attitudes and methods for dealing with human
factors affecting the environment are discussed.
Concepts of expanded ownership, developed by the Sabre Foundation,
and improvement in the quality of the work environment taken from Peter
Earth's invited paper are presented as possible methods for improving
man's sense of commitment and responsibility,
Garrett Hardin discusses the possibility of effecting major changes in the
attitudes of society and the "crisis" label so often associated with the en-
vironment. He concludes that this label may be necessary to initiate action
but emphasizes that hard work over a long time is what is really needed.
Murray Bowen takes a systems viewpoint of human behavior. He
discusses the communication of emotional reaction to crisis, the maturity of
society, and approaches to solving environmental problems based on in-
creasing responsibility and consistency between what we say and what we
do. He also recommends that the crisis label be removed from environ-
mental issues.
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Human Short Range Thinking
One of the reasons we do have environmental degradation is that
mankind stresses short-range goals and tends to be most concerned with
individual gain, even when he may realize this gain is obtained at the ex-
pense of society as a whole. Hardin aptly illustrated this tendency in an
example he called "The Tragedy of the Commons" (1).
Hardin describes a common pasture in which neighboring herdsmen
graze their animals. When the population becomes sufficiently large in-
creased grazing will have detrimental effects on the pasture and each herd-
sman realizes this. However, when deciding whether or not to add another
animal to his herd, he asks himself,
"What is the utility to me of adding one more animal to my herd? This
utility has one negative and one positive component.
"I.The positive component is a function of the increment of one
animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of
the additional animal, the positive utility is nearly +1.
2. The negative component is a function of the additional
overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of
overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen, the negative utility for any
particular decision-making herdsman is only a fraction of -1.
Adding together the component partial utilities, the rational herdsman
concludes that the only sensible course for him to pursue is to add
another animal to his herd."
When this process is repeated by all the herdsmen, serious en-
vironmental degradation occurs and ultimately all suffer loss. The parallel of
this example to our present environmental behavior is obvious.
Responsibility and Personal Commitment
Another factor contributing to our problem is the lack of a feeling of
responsibility evident among many of our citizens. In part this is due to a
decrease in commitment to personal possessions and to the area in which
they live. This could be offset by expanding ownership, perhaps by making
ownership more easily attainable. Responsibility and commitment could
also be improved by improving the quality of the working environment.
Rental Economics
Rental economics is a term used to describe the temporary commitments
increasing numbers of individuals and institutions make when they rent
clothing, automobiles, household furnishings, housing and many other
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things. The trend is most dramatic in housing. In "Future Shock" Alvin Tof-
fler observes that "as late as 1955 apartments accounted for only 8 percent
of new housing starts. By 1961 it reached 24 percent. By 1969, for the first
time in the United States, more building permits were being issued for
apartment construction than for private homes." People increasingly want
minimum involvement to survive the uncertainties of rapid change.
This trend has two implications for environmental quality. First, the
reduced sense of identity, commitment and responsibility encourages in-
difference to the environmental. Second, there is a possible positive effect
Rented items are the responsibility of the owner for major maintenance.
This could incentivize the market and increase the demand for products
designed for longer life and lower maintenance requirements.
Expanded Ownership
Expanded ownership is a term used to characterize various methods
whereby ownership of income-producing capital can be made available to
those who have little or none. Ownership may strengthen one's sense of
identity with the goals of an enterprise or of the community.
The concepts of expanded ownership are delineated in a study directed
by John McClaughry for the Sabre Foundation. Excerpts from the report are
presented below.
The men who founded the United States of America—John Adams,
Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison in particular—believed that a
widespread distribution of property ownership was essential to the
establishment of republican self-government and the preservation of
individual liberty.
Today the idea of a private property base for free government and a
free society is increasingly called into question. Three differing views
of public policy exist:
1. Those who find the concentration of ownership and economic
power desirable, as Alexander Hamilton once did, and oppose any
public policy which would alter the status quo.
2. Those who advocate increased governmental control of the large
concentrations of ownership and economic power in the name of "the
people" including those who favor government ownership of the
means of production.
3. Those, as yet few, who believe that free government and individual
liberty must continue to be based on the widespread ownership of
genuine private property, and who thus favor a public policy of ex-
panding ownership opportunities to achieve that objective, while at the
same time forestalling demands for government controls and
socialization.
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The Sabre report, describing methods for expanding the ownership
of property to those who have little or none of it, is squarely based on
this third public policy position.
The Sabre Foundation's study makes a strong case in favor of expanding
classic private ownership opportunities. One part of the case is the link that
exists between private property ownership and such traditional virtues as
individual liberty, respect for law and order, responsible political par-
ticipation, economic understanding, and individual productivity. Another
part of the case is the link between the use of private capital and entrepre-
neurship in production and the growth of wealth. It has been the productivity
of capital that has generated the huge rise in incomes and accumulation of
wealth in modern times. It is the productivity of capital whose fruits finance
the growing welfare sector of the economy and the increased consumption
of public goods.
The Sabre study recommends an extensive national commitment to ex-
panded private ownership opportunities to broaden the ownership of
productive capital and consumer capital. This would mean that govern-
mental policy would be devised to enlarge ownership in United States cor-
porations. Programs to encourage individual purchases of homes, farms,
and small businesses would be strengthened and extended. Tax policy
would give incentives to employees to buy stock in corporations where they
work and to employers and owners to provide the opportunity. The study
proposes that the President and the Congress establish a Commission on
Expanded Ownership to further explore and implement ideas to promote
more general private ownership.
All these current controversies center on the future of the private owner-
ship of productive and consumer capital. The broader that ownership is, the
stronger can be the ownership voice in the councils of public and private
policy-making.
Productivity and the Quality of the Work Environment
Productivity reflects how well managers use corporate resources. In part,
productivity is a function of the attitude and motivation of managers and
workers. If they can genuinely feel a personal identity which the activities of
the company their personal productivity will tend to increase. It seems
reasonable to assume that, under conditions of increased identiy with com-
pany activities, they might also experience and increased identification with
the environmental responsibilities of the company.
Peter Barth observes, "A job is no longer valued solely as the means of
acquiring income. It is also valued in terms of the opportunities it affords to
satisfy equally basic social and psychological needs." Other observations
from his invited paper are presented in the remainder of this section.
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Although we have been prone to treat work as a discrete segment of life
because of its temporal and geographical separation from the home and the
community, it is becoming quite obvious to social observers that life cannot
be so neatly compartmentalized. The quality of work is inextricably tied to
the quality of life, with the former conditioning and setting limits on what
may be achieved in the latter. Research has established that the adverse of
employment experience are not confined within the boundaries of the work-
place, but can spill over into virtually every area of life functioning—per-
sonal, familial, social and political. Work for some may be the principal
means of earning "the coin of fun," but it is also a potent determinant of the
utility or what is purchased.
We are beginning, with the aid of research, to appreciate the per-
vasiveness of work problems throughout the population. We have learned,
for example, that the "blue collar blues" is not an affliction experienced by
a limited segment of the work force, but is a term more appropriately ap-
plied to a wide range of workers holding jobs with common attributes at
numerous points throughout the occupational hierarchy. Although the
assembly line worker continues to be the example par excellance of the
dysfunctional consequences of scientific management and bureaucratic
rationalization, his frustrations are not nearly so unique as was once
assumed. Just as there is impressive commonality of values sought in em-
ployment so too is there a wide sharing of the frustrations induced when
the goals of workers are thwarted by the structure and organization of work
systems. Excesses in routinization, job simplification, rules of conduct, and
the imposition of authority affect white- as well as blue-collar workers,
professionals as well as laborers, and managers as well as rank-and-file
employees.
But how can we gauge the quality of the working environment? What are
its major dimensions? What indices can be constructed and what statistics
can be compiled to enable us to measure the impact of the work en-
vironment on individual well-being, to determine where problems are more
and less severe, to chart changes over time, and to assess the gains
achievable through private action and public policy? It is this measurement
process which will transfer issues of work quality from the realm of pure
conjecture and polemic to the arena of social policy and programs.
A vital distinction should be made at this point between the objective
determinants of dissatisfaction, the subjective experience and attitudinal
expression of dissatisfaction, and the larger behavioral outcomes or
manifestations of dissatisfaction. There is little evidence that the objective
circumstances of workers, whatever criterion is used, have significantly
deteriorated over the years. Indeed, the application of most economic yard-
sticks would reveal considerable progress in assuring secure and
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renumerative employment. To some extent what we may be witnessing is
the growing tendency of workers to critically evaluate their circumstances
and to articulate such evaluations both in words and deeds. As more is ex-
pected of employment particularly its non-economic features, more is
going to be found lacking. In addition, in areas where dissatisfaction has
long been experienced, workers may now be less willing to accept and
adapt to it as an inevitable requirement of employment.
In short, there may be some striking parallels to be drawn between what
is now being observed in employment and what has already occured else-
where on the social scene, particularly in the civil rights area. Suffering in
silence is no longer a commendable virtue. The benefits of the forceful ex-
pression of grievances and militant action to correct them have been
established for all to witness.
Although existing data bearing on the question of trends in discontent are
ambiguous, the evidence regarding the distribution of satisfaction and
dissatisfaction throughout the labor force is reasonably clearcut. Discontent
is more common to black than to white workers, more prevalent among
youth than among older workers, more frequent in some industries than in
others, and more concentrated in some occupational categories than in
other groupings. While individuals higher in the occupational hierarchy are
far less prone to express dissatisfaction than those lower in the structure,
there are also notable differences within gross occupational classes:
Discontent is more endemic to workers whose jobs are fragmentized,
routinized, allow little opportunity for autonomy, yield low wages, offer little
security, and subject them to hazardous or unpleasant working conditions.
The existence of substantial "pockets" of dissatisfaction is hardly a
recent revelation. Yet worker satisfaction more often has been regarded by
organizational managers as a serendipitous outcome of employment than a
condition to foster and nurture. However, there is now being created a body
of data which should argue compelling for its acceptance as a major
organizational and social goal.
1. For the worker, the consequences of dissatisfaction may be profound
as well as pervasive. A recent study of aging found level of work
satisfaction to be the most powerful predictor of longevity, surpassing
the predictive ability of all other variables examined. This relationship
is all the more credible in light of the evidence that dissatisfaction can
manifest itself in various symptoms of poor physical and mental health,
and the suspicion that it may be a factor underlying excessive use of
alcohol and drug abuse. Although the broader personal outcomes of
dissatisfaction have not yet been fully traced, it is beginning to reveal
itself as a potent influence on the quality of non-work life, including the
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richness of leisure and the extent of involvement in the social and
political affairs of the community.
2. For the employer, dissatisfaction has been found to be a factor in labor
turnover, absenteeism and tardiness; it may be a important moderator
of productivity and product quality; and it is increasingly viewed as a
cause of sabotage and other counterproductive work behavior.
3. For society, dissatisfaction may impede productivity growth and con-
tribute to higher price levels; it may be an important factor underlying
anti-social behavior and encourage the growth of social and political
alienation; and it surely retards the development and value of the
Nation's manpower resources.
These are not, of course, firmly established principles which have gained
universal acceptance; but neither are they merely the idle speculations of
social theorists. A body of research and experiential data is nowbeing
assembled which appears likely to engender a new appreciation of the
varied consequences of worker discontent Hopefully, also, it will en-
courage the development of innovative approaches to the design of jobs
and work environment which may remedy it.
Before considering what directions such remedial efforts might take in
the job satisfaction area, it may be instructive to review what actions have
already been taken to protect and improve the physical health and safety of
workers with view to assessing their applicability to job satisfaction.
In enacting the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, the most am-
bitious legislation in the area, Congress declared its intention "to assure so
far as possible every working man and woman in the Nation safe and
healthful working conditions." It imposes on employers the legal obligation
"to furnish to each of his employees employment and a place of em-
ployment free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to
cause death or serious physical harm to his employees," and assigns to the
Secretary of Labor the responsibility for promulgating and enforcing oc-
cupational safety and health standards.
Although the full potential of this legislative remedy for health and safety
problems is yet to be realized, unqestionably it must be supplemented by
actions on a number of other fronts. These include the more thoughtful
design of equipment, jobs and work environments; the sensitization of em-
ployees to occupational hazards and the encouragement of positive safety
attitudes and habits; and the intensification of research enabling the more
precise specification of occupational hazards and the health con-
sequences.
Given the state of existing knowledge, it should be possible in time to
build into jobs and work environments sufficient safeguards to effect im-
pressive reductions in the frequency and seventy of occupational injuries
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and illnesses, including those which stem from on-the-job pollutants, of
special interest to EPA. The principal impediments to achieving this goal
may be less a matter of know-how than the knotty question of costs and how
they are to be apportioned.
Changing the Attitudes of Society
If man's perception of the environment is incomplete and if his thinking
sometimes emphasizes short-term gain to the detriment of the long-term,
can his perception be changed? Garrett Hardin believes it can, and cites
recent attitudinal changes experienced in this country. However, he
suggests that labeling the environmental problem as a crisis is misleading,
but perhaps necessary to assure action. His discussion, taken from his in-
vited paper is presented below.
The basic question raised by the analyst of environmental problems is,
"What must we do?" So staggering is the roster of things that we really
should-do, and so fundamental are some of the changes in economic and
social arrangements that he recommends, that it is not long before the en-
vironmentalist asks: "What can we do?" Politics, as some one said, is the
art of the possible, and there is little point in saying we must have pie in the
sky if meteorology tells us we can't. What is possible? What is not?
Recent events justify out being much more optimistic about the possibility
of change than we could be even so recently as a decade ago. It is im-
portant that the broadening of the dimensions of the possible receive wide
publicity, because we are operating in a realm of truth that is populated by
what Robert K. Merton called "self-fulfilling prophecies." What is possible
is determined partly by what we think is possible. Politics may, in fact be
redefined as "the ethics of thinking the possible and the art of bringing it
into being." In use, this will probably prove to be a more responsible
definition than the usual one of politics as "the art of the possible." which is
too often used as an excuse for fiddling while Rome burns.
Events of the last decade give us valid reasons for doubting what
Galbraith has called "the conventional wisdom" about the possibility of
rapid social change (2). Conventionally it is, held that nothing less than
generations will suffice to bring about social change whenever: (a) the topic
arouses strong emotions; or (b) the reform called for is more than "in-
cremental," i.e., a succession of tiny steps. Discussion of the second point
is deferred for the present, as we look into the effectiveness of emotions in
preventing change.
The decade of the '60s was marked by a sustained drive to being an end
to "compulsory pregnancy" i.e., to remove abortion-prohibition laws/from
the statute books (3). As one of perhaps two dozen activists in this area I
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was repeatedly cautioned that no rapid change was possible in so
emotional or "controversial" an area. One wise elder statesman in the
medical world told me that he agreed with me that abortion-on-request was
desirable, but that he felt that the most we could hope for the present was a
so-called "therapeutic abortion" Jaw that would permit abortions only in har-
dship cases: threat to life of mother, serious threat to her mentaKhealth,
probability of a deformed child, and for relief in cases of rape and incest. It
would be, he thought, a hundred years before society could bring itself to
permitting abortion-on-request (4).
That was in 1965. Within a mere five years two states passed abortion-on-
request bills; and in January, 1973, the U.S. Supreme Court ru'led that state
laws could not abridge the right of a woman to-have an abortion her doctor
was willing to perform.
History has thus given a critical testing of the conventional wisdom that it
takes generations to bring about change in highly emotional areas. Few
areas were as emotional as abortion in 1963, yet it took only ten years, not a
hundred, for a small band of abortion activists to create the new climate of
opinion on which the Supreme Court opinion could rest. Such a rapid
change in a highly emotional area should be an immense encouragement to
all Utopians. Now that we see that substantial alteration is possible, the
responsibility for being right in our goals should weigh more heavily upon
us.
The Illusion of Crisis
The word "crisis" stands for a curious idea, half fact half fable. A medical
crisis, more often seen (or perhaps imagined) a hundred years ago than
now, is a mixture of pathology and drama. At a heart-clutching "turning
point"—the literal meaning of the Greek root—the patient suddenly and
dramatically starts on the road to recovery or he dies. The medical crisis is
marvellous for the stage; occasionally it is even encountered in the sick-
room.
In a crisis there is nothing much that anyone can do except hold on tight;
pray, if you are religious, or rub a rabbit's foot if you are superstitious. But
you cannot really do anything at the critical point, which (for better or worse)
will soon be over In Chamberlain's mind, the troubles of Europe toward
the end of the '30's, had reached a crisis. A concession here, a concession
there—and surely it would soon be over?... Please?
He was wrong, and history marched on to produce the Second World
War. The underlying troubles were much more enduring than a crisis. What
was required was not mere holding on (or prayer or incantation), but hard
thought and prolonged effort blood, toil, tears and sweat, in Churchill's
words.
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It is significant that we have a name for the time-limited crisis, but no
word for its time-extended contrast. We speak of a "chronic condition," but
lack the needed noun. Chronos? This would do if word-and-meaning were
established—but they are not. Perhaps people don't want to recognize
realities of this sort. A crisis is good theatre; the grinding demands of a
chronic condition seldom is. Willing not to think about the reality, people
are quite content to muddle along without a name for it.
There is no environmental crisis. We are confronted with no dramatic tur-
ning point that will soon be past if only we will pray or curse or hold our
breaths. The conditions that have produced our present trouble are still with
us, in greater degree every day. Without effort on our part, there will be no
change for the better, and probably no sudden change for the worst.
Tomorrow will simple be a little worse than today, and the next day still
worse. Holding one's breath is futile; sweat and toil are what the situation
demands of us (accompanied, no doubt, by unavoidable blood and
irrelevant tears).
It is tempting to the reformer to use the rhetoric of crisis to arouse his
audience. He should resist the temptation. The dynamics of chronos (if I
may use the word) is different from the dynamics of crisis. The worsening is
not sudden but gradual and almost imperceptible. When the fears aroused
by the word crisis are not soon realized a "backlash" is all too likely to
develop, and the environmental baby may be thrown out with the bath water
of "crisis." The understandable result is a book like The Doomsday Syn-
drome (5).
The expectation of crisis interferes with our perception of world events
and with our ability to foretell, recognize, and react to approaching
catastrophe. We are trapped by this implicit argument:
1. A crisis must occur before the public will take action;
2. There is no crisis now;
3. We will recognize the crisis when it comes;
4. In the meantime nothing can be done.
The worst errors center around the third point, our perception of reality.
As has been said before, "Nobody ever dies of overpopulation" (6). Deaths
of chronically malnourished people are attributed variously to cyclones,
cholera, tuberculosis, leprosy, riot, civil insurrection and war. Even star-
vation is seldom recorded as the cause of death: the diseases favored by
malnutrition are the "causes" of choice when it comes to filling out death
certificates. Worse, in times and places where starvation is most serious no
one is filling out death certificates; all too often no one is witnessing death
and reporting it to the outside world. Thus are our perceptions protected
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against recognizing a deperate condition which, were it recognized, would
call for action (which we try to avoid).
The city of Calcutta stands as a symbol of our expectations and our moral
paralysis. For several decades its desperate situation has been universally
recognized, both inside India and out. Paralyzed, the world waits for a crisis
to overtake Calcutta, at which point massive intervention would seem
justified. But the crisis never comes. As Geoffrey Moorehouse has noted
(7), the spectacular and critical events we might label disintegration,
collapse and breaktown, seem not to occur. Instead, we are witnessing
"something more akin to petrifaction" of the total organism we call a city.
This is not a crisis; and so we do nothing.
Almost everywhere, man's situation is "desperate but not critical." Is this
qualified judgment a cause for rejoicing? Only if we can bring ourselves to
take action in a situation that is merely desperate.
Human Consciousness and Management of Multidisciplinary
Activities
As early life forms evolved into modern man, consciousness also
evolved. John Calhoun believes that development of human consciousness
was influenced by population density. Eventually man had to develop a
"conceptual space" to replace physical space as a means of maintaining
social interactions within a tolerable level. Conceptual space, the ideas
available to an individual, provided a means of defining different social
roles which buffered man from too many social interactions. Calhoun traces
the stages of evolution of consciousness and concludes that we are on the
threshold of a new domain of consciousness.
He states that evolution of the brain necessarily accompanied evolution
of consciousness. To enter the new domain of consciousness, Calhoun be-
lieves that man must develop a prosthetic-synergistic brain. The brain must
be prosthetic in that technological aides to information' processing will
become increasingly important. He believes this is so because man will be
linked into a single, world-wide communications network. The brain must
be synergistic in order to effectively direct the multidisciplinary activities of
this universal, interdependent network.
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Influence of Population Density on the Evolution of Consciousness
The evolution of consciousness has required two billion years. Most of
this time has been required to consolidate living matter into cellular struc-
tures and to develop multicellular organisms with neural nets. Late in the
evolutionary process, man developed and initiated a sapient domain of con-
sciousness which Calhoun calls the Cultural-Conceptual Domain. Puring
this domain culture superceded genetics as the means for increasing con-
sciousness and responsiveness. Environmental structures, both physical
and social, were designed by man as prostheses to the biological brain.
Thus, man's brain evolved into a prosthetic-social brain.
At the time of the beginning of the Cultural-Conceptual Domain man had
reached a density-dependent equilibrium with the natural environment in
which, as with other animals, his numbers were in harmony with resources.
A by-product of having evolved at this low density and as a small group-
living social animal was a genetically acquired tolerance and need for a
certain rate of meaningful contact and interaction with associates. This
required social interaction at a particular rate consistent with living in a
territory approximately 15 miles in diameter and as a member of a small
group.
Socially speaking, density became synonymous with meanmgtul in-
teractions per day. As population grew humanity required a redefinition of
"space" to include some parameter that could maintain interactions within
tolerable limits despite increases in physical density. In prior studies we
have shown that the creation of information and its codification into con-
cepts that permitted definition of new social roles represented the needed
new kind of space.
Any individual's occupation of a social role buffered him from excessive
interaction with individuals occupying other social roles not closely
associated with his own. This new kind of space, the total pool of in-
formation that may be condensed into concepts permitting elaboration of
social roles, the linkage of large numbers of individuals into communication
networks, and the devising of technologies for acquiring and fabricating
resources, may be designated as "conceptual space." Since, from asocial
interactional perspective, density must be maintained constant, it follows
that additions of conceptual space must keep pace with increases in
population. Soon after the beginning of the Cultural-Conceptual Domain,
conceptual space became more important than physical space. Further-
more, the number of persons alive at any time provides an approximate in-
dex of the amount of conceptual space then existing.
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As conceptual space increases the total ideas available to any individual
increases. To the extent that these ideas are acquired and utilized the
capacity and potentiality of the individual increases.
One of the environmental structural categories in this evolution of con-
sciousness and brain involves the linkage of people together into effective
socio-political networks. In the past each revolution of consciousness has
been marked by an enlargement of this network. At the conclusion of the
Cultural-Conceptual Domain all the world will be bound effectively into a
single such communication network. That time, a half century from now, will
mark the termination of the domain during which increase in numbers of in-
dividuals will augment consciousness. Depending upon how we choose to
guide further population change, the upper optimum world population will
stand between 6.2 and 9.0 billion. Beyond that additional individuals will
merely interfere with that metabolism of information which is prerequisite to
further increase in consciousness.
Solution of the emerging environmental crisis and continued evolution of
consciousness will require that we shift into the Prosthetic-Synergistic
Domain of consciousnes and that we seek harmony with the expansion of
freedom and responsibility provided through the evolving brain.
The new type of brain may be designated as prosthetic-synergistic
because of the likely accentuation of these two properties. Prosthesis will
become much more important in the future because in the new domain
people will tend to be linked into a world-wide communication network, thus
leaving physical information processing prosthesis as the only major means
of enhancing consciousness. Synergism will become important because
the main function of the new brain, beyond increasing consciousness, will
be to develop qualities of compassion and empathy which are necessary for
individuals and institutions to function as nodes in a totally interconnected
and interdependent network. The health of every node will depend upon the
health of every other node. Self concept will be developed in terms of be-
coming a more effective node in the network. Ideational transformation will
result from the synergistic focusing of diverse capabilities in united efforts
to resolve problems. Be it noted that such synergistic organization is the
basic implication of the "multidisciplinary approach" as contrasted to the
isolated, individualistic, reductionism now characterizing most of basic
science.
The reason for these changes lies in population growth. As mentioned
earlier, if population growth continues without limit we will eventually reach
a saturation point. Beyond this point additional individuals will interfere with
the metabolism of information and retard further evolution of consciousness.
If we allow population to increase to the limits possible, subject to the con-
straints of available resources, then the average individual would become
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less aware of less and less until most individuals have dropped below the
level of consciousness requisite for initiating cultural evolution.
If zero population growth is the choice, the capacity of the individual will
tend to remain constant also. There will be no further evolution of con-
sciousness. Evolution will be terminated; for this corner of the universe it
will be all over except for a continuous hedonistic traditionalism. Other
animals have made this choice and persisted for millions of years. So might
we, but only through our intent and actions can evolution continue.
If we elect to continue the evolutionary process of enlarging the con-
sciousness of the individual, and the accompanying responsiveness and
capacity for relating to the environment, then a necessary condition will be a
compatible decline in population. But decline in population, though
necessary for further increase in individual potentiality, does not of itself
suffice. By the end of the current domain, roughly fifty years from now, it may
be anticipated that the linkage of people and institutions into an effective
world-wide network will have been accomplished. This will leave physical
information processing prosthesis as the only major means for further
enhancing consciousness. Elaboration and diversification of such
prosthesis will become the main characteristic of the next domain of
evolution, if we choose to initiate it.
In the remainder of his invited paper Calhoun concludes that a
metascience, transcending traditional science, must be developed to solve
the environmental crisis and to address the increasingly multidisciplinary
nature of other problems. He believes that a new management strategy
must be developed to manage this metascience. To develop a strategy, the
many concepts which constitute conceptual space must be understood.
Therefore, as a first step in developing such a strategy he defines con-
ceptual space by identifying known concepts and specifying the relations
between them.
7776 Systems Viewpoint of Human Behavior
Earlier in this Chapter Hardin pointed out the difficulties arising
from labeling a situation as a crisis and discusses difficulties arising from
the need to communicate problems and solutions to a rapidly increasing
population. Enlarging on these themes Bowen discusses the behavior of
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societies in crisis situations and discusses the emotional maturity of
society. He begins by describing behavior from a systems viewpoint.
A systems view of man represents a different order of thinking than is
represented in our conventional theories. First I will present some of the
major differences between systems and conventional thinking. It is difficult
for man to shift from conventional toward systems thinking. I am not sure he
can ever shift to systems thinking, when he is thinking about himself. I will
present the key theoretical concepts that interlock to make up this total
Family Systems Theory. This will be followed by some of the numerous
relationship patterns in society that parallel family relationship patterns.
Finally, there will be a summary of man's predictable emotional reactions to
crisis situations, the difficulty in finding solutions that are not emotionally
determined, the tendency of emotionally determined solutions to merely
preserve the status quo, and ways emotionally determined solutions can in-
tensify the problem. Systems thinking provides no magical answers, but it
does provide a different way of conceptualizing human problems, it offers a
more realistic evaluation of the difficulty in changing the basic patterns in
any human dilemma, and it suggests ways to avoid some of the pitfalls of
conventional thinking and to institute progress toward long-term goals.
Background Assumptions and Hypotheses
The first of these assumptions was worked out early in the research. It
came from previous study and experience and was based on the notion that
emotional illness is deeper than a one generation product of parent-child
relationships; that it has about the same incidence in different cultures with
widely different child rearing practices, if there is allowance for the ways dif-
ferent cultures deal with emotionally impaired people; that there are
suggestions it might even exist in wild animals; and it would be profitable to
have this broad assumption in the background. The other assumptions were
also defined as broadly as possible, but they were more directly related to
early observations in the research. The earliest research models about
relationships were based on systems thinking but there was not specific
awareness of this at the time. As time passed, the term "systems" was
spontaneously used to refer to the automatic predictable behavior between
family members.
1. That Emotional Illness Is Directly Related to the Biological Part of Man.
This was based on the assumption that man is more intimately related to the
lower forms of life than is generally recognized, and that emotional illness is
a dysfunction of that part of man which he shares with lower forms.
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2. That Emotional Illness Is a Multigenerafional Process. There were early
experiences and observations .to support this working general assumption.
This was later defined in detail and- incorporated as one of the theoretical
concepts in the total theory. This postulated that the problem in the patient
is a product of imperfections in the parents, and thejparents a product of im-
perfections in the grandparents, continuing back for three or more
generations, and that each generation was doing the best -it could con-
sidering stresses and available resources. The most important function of
this postulation was to help observers escape from the narrow limits of in-
dividual theory which blames parents for the child's problem, and to gain a
more objective overall perspective.
3. That There Is a Wide Discrepancy Between What Man Does and What
He Says He Does. The beginnings of this were based on early research ob-
servations. This was another guiding principle that permitted observers to
gain some distance and begin to see some order to the multiplicity of
messages and actions that are part of the hour-to-hour observations. The
second year a member of the research team did a paper, "The Act Dialogue
in an Intense Relationship" which told a story based .on action alone, that
appeared to have more validity than verbal dialogue.
4. Structuring "Hard to Define" Concepts into Functional Facts. This was
part of an effort to find some structure and Fact in the shifting, subjective
world of human experience. It is difficult enough to conceptualize sub-
jectivity in dealing with one person. In a family relationship system it is far
more complex. Over a period of time, we began developing a formula which
helped to move more rapidly into systems thinking and which made
research observations more objective and measureable. The incorporation
of functional concepts into therapy has resulted in therapeutic results that
are far superior to conventional therapy. For instance, one concept would
say, "That man dreams is a scientific fact, but what he dreams is not
necessarily a fact." The same formula was applied to a wide range of func-
tional concepts, such as "That men feels (or thinks, or talks) is a scientific
fact, but what he feels (or thinks or says) is not necessarily fact."
5. Cause and Effect Thinking. Man has been a cause and effect thinker
since he first became a thinking being and he began to look for causes to
explain events in his life. We can review-the thinking of primitive man and
be amused at the evil and -malevolent forces blamed for his misfortunes, x>r
we can review the history of recent centuries and chuckle at the errors in
the assignment of blame that resulted from 4ack of scientific knowledge,
while we smugly assure ourselves that new scientific breakthroughs and
logical reasoning now enables us to assign accurate causes for most of
man's problems.
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Limitations of Cause and Effect Thinking
Systems thinking, which this research has tried to implement in human
relationships, is directed at getting beyond cause and effect thinking and
into a systems view of the human phenomenon. In the course of trying to im-
plement systems theory and systems therapy, we have encountered the
intensity and rigidity of cause and effect thinking in the medical sciences
and in all our social systems. Man is deeply fixed in cause and effect
thinking in all areas that have to do with himself and society.
Systems thinking is not new to man. He first began to use it in theories of
the universe, much later he started thinking systems in the natural sciences,
and also in the physical sciences. There was a rapid increase in systems
thinking with the beginning of the computer age, until now we hear about ef-
forts to implement systems thinking in many new areas of the applied scien-
ces.
The medical model has been one of the proven cornerstones of good
medical.practice. It is based on cause and effect thinking and the principles
of careful examination, the establishment of etiology (cause), making,an ac-
curate diagnosis, and specific treatment directed at the etiology: The
medical model has served medicine and society wellfor all diseases within
the person of the patient.
The theory and practice of psychiatry also employs the medical model,
and cause and effect thinking. The theory, based on the study of the in-
dividual, postulates an illness in the patient developed in relationship with
the parents or other close family members, it requires a diagnosis, and
treatment is directed to the patient. The model "blames" the parents for the
illness, even though the psychiatrist may deny that he blames the parents,
and the model excludes other family members from the treatment process.
And so, the medical model created a dilemma when applied to emotional
(functional) illness. Family research was directed at'trying to find an answer
to this dilemma. The development of systems theory and therapy has been
superior in treating emotional problems but it is conceptually and
therapeutically out of step with medicine and conventional psychiatry. The
medical centers in which a family orientation has been most successful are
those in which conventional psychiatry has not been too strict in enforcing
the medical model and family therapists have not tried to oversell their
viewpoint.
A Communication Model for Transmission of Emotional Reactions
Emotional reactiveness in a family, or other group that lives or works
together, goes from one family member to another in a chain reaction pat-
tern. The total pattern is similar to a communication system in which each
person is "wired" or connected by radio, to all the other people with whom
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he has relationships. Each person then becomes a nodal point or a com-
munication center through which single or multiple signals pass in rapid
succession.
Different kinds of signals exist, and each with a wide spectrum of in-
tensity and degree of importance. A more important set of variables has to
do with the way each nodal point, or person, functions in the system. Each
person is programmed from birth to serve a certain set of functions. Each
"senses" what is required or expected, more from the way the system func-
tions around him than from verbal messages stating he is free to function as
he pleases. Each person, or nodal point, has varying degrees of ability for
handling signals (native ability), styles for handling signals (personality
characteristics), a narrow range of choice in rejecting or transmitting
signals, and an intellectual awareness (intelligence) for understanding the
operation of the system.
There is another important set of variables that have to do with the way the
family unit functions together. Each person becomes aware of his depen-
dence on all the other nodal points. To be remembered is that each nodal
point is "wired" to the others by a two-way channel. There is a wide variety
of subtle alliances for helping each other, refusing to help, or hurting the
others. The larger unit can punish a single member, and a single member in
a key position can hurt the whole unit.
Another predictable pattern is the placing of "blame" for failure to func-
tion (cause and effect thinking) and the pattern of either blaming the other
or blaming self. Under tension, every person tends either to place the
"blame" outside of self (blamer), or within self (self-blamer), or alternate
between the two, which is the pattern of cause and effect thinking. If the
head of the family unit is calm, the entire family unit can be calm and the
communication system operates smoothly. When the head goes into panic
and transmits panic signals, the others send back panic messages which
further panics the head, in a mounting cycle of panic, with poor handling of
messages, disorderly and conflicting messages, and increasing paralysis
of functioning. Any unit can recover from periodic panic or overloads, but
when the panic becomes chronic one or more of the individual units can
collapse (become sick), and there are several variables for handling that
There is another set of very important variables having to do with the way
the family unit is wired into other families and larger social systems, and
into the total system of all society.
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Conclusions
This systems approach postulates the environmental problem as having
been created by biological man (in contrast to intellectual man) as he has
evolved, developed, and propagated; that man has permitted the en-
vironmental problem to develop so far he is beginning to threaten his own
future existence; that the biological-instinctive-feeling oriented part of man
will not provide consistent help in finding solutions; and that constructive
solutions to the problem will depend on the highest functioning of in-
tellectual man in directing total man toward solutions. A systems approach
strives to view the environmental problem as a functional part of society's
other problems, rather than separate from other problems.
From a systems standpoint, what are some of the things society might do
to modify the environmental problem and what are some reasonable predic-
table outcomes of the various approaches? Society's most common ap-
proach would be emergency, feeling oriented, fragmented measures direc-
ted at a specific symptom. It could even go on to specific legislation "with
teeth in it" to apprehend violators. This type of approach would be similar to
the distraught family and its crisis oriented measures to relieve the symp-
tom of the moment.
Emotional Functioning of Society
This can lead to the delusion that the problem is solved, a complacency
that permits him to continue what he was doing to add to the problem, and
then the rude awakening with new and more serious crises, and a basic
problem that grows worse. These are some of the characteristics of efforts
at corrective measures that make the problem worse and worse. It is easy
now to see corrective activity, most of which is good, which attacks a symp-
tom here and another there, which leads people to believe they are working
out a solution while the basic problem remains unchanged. The various
"ecology" programs to limit the use of pesticides, to control air and water
pollution, to recycle waste products, clean up litter, etc., are all positive, but
any program directed at symptoms as they surface can well lead to missing
more basic issues and a long term "making the problem worse."
Any approach to the environmental problem must take into account the
current lower functioning level of society. Any issues that are settled by
public debate and congressional action will automatically reflect the
average level of society and emerge with emotionally determined corrective
action. Society tends to elect public officials, from local level to
congressional level, who reflect the average functioning of society. There
are some notable exceptions but the majority represent the emotionally
determined average of society. Whatever happens, any proposed solutions
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should come from the best brains and the highest levels of technical and
emotional functioning in society who can lead and set an example. To ex-
pose the critical issues to the emotional average level of society would ex-
pose the whole program to a lower level of emotionally determined Cause
and Effect thinking. Perhaps an agency similar to the Space Agency could
accomplish the mission.
Need for a More Differentiated Society
There may be some guidelines from the long term effort toward dif-
ferentiation in a family. In the beginning, when symptoms are high, it might
be indicated to use anxiety relieving measures, such as meetings with the
entire family unit or with the parents, the heads of the unit, to re-establish
communication and settle disharmony. If the goal is toward long term
stability and the differentiation of self, this eventually becomes the effort of
one person who can give primary attention to self. This involves the prin-
ciple that all family members play a part in everything that goes on in the
family. It is never possible to really change another person, but it is
possible to change the part that self plays. The modification of self requires
that person to be sure of self on all life principles that involve himself and
his family, to have the courage to take action on his convictions, and to
devote primary attention to becoming the most responsible possible per-
son.
Most people operate on poorly defined principles and have never
devoted much time to their own beliefs. There are repeated principles that
are hard to clarify. At such moments of indecision, it is common for people
to discuss issues with spouses or other close family members who use this
opportunity to sell their own values, which, if accepted, modifies the self of
the differentiating one toward a "family self." At such points, if one is to be
successful at differentiation of a self, discussion should be with those
emotionally removed from the family, or he could go to the literature, or go
into isolation to work it through for himself. A person working toward
responsibility in self is always aware of his responsibility to others. As he
devotes primary energy to self, he automatically becomes more responsible
toward others, and less irresponsibly over-involved with others. As the dif-
ferentiating one moves toward more differentiation, the others go through
the brief period of attacking, designed to re-establish the old level of
togetherness. When the differentiating one is through his first nodal point,
then another, and another, and other family members begin the same kind
of effort. Such a family is a far more healthy organism with freedom from old
regressive symptoms. The family is calm, with a new, more mature level of
togetherness and a new ability to responsibly handle problems as they
arise.
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A more differentiated society would not have as serious an environmental
problem as we now have. If society functioned on a higher level, we would
have a higher percentage of people oriented to responsibility for self and
others, and for the environment, and a lower percentage, focused on rights
and force and on legal mechanisms to guarantee rights. A more dif-
ferentiated society could take the present environmental problem and find
better solutions than will be possible in our present less differentiated state.
The differentiation of self on a societal level would be hard to implement.
In a family, differentiation begins with one responsible family member in a
key position. When this person pulls up to a higher level of functioning, then
another, and then others automatically do the same. This family, with each
focused on the responsibility for self, is automatically more responsible for
others. With each responsible for self, there is no longer the intense
emotional triangles that impinge certain family members, nor a family
projecting process in which the stronger family members improve their
functional strength at the expense of the weak who become weaker.
In our society, the whole of the middle and upper classes of society
spend a fair percentage of their time, energy, and money being concerned
about and trying to be helpful to the less fortunate. The effort activates the
family projection process and the well-to-do segment of society, through the
projection process, further impairs the less fortunate. Man has a respon-
sibility to those less fortunate. Responsible man fulfills such responsibilities
automatically. If the most influential segment of society could work toward
the differentiation of self, it would automatically spread through the less in-
fluential segments and really benefit the less fortunate segment and raise
the functional level of all society. The powerful togetherness forces in
society oppose any efforts at differentiation of self. The lower the level of dif-
ferentiation, the harder it is to start a differentiating effort. The togetherness
forces at the present are intense. However, any differentiation in any key
person in society automatically rubs off on others. Anyone who moves in
this direction benefits society.
Remove Crisis Label from Environmental Issues
Finally, I think the word "crisis" should be removed from the term
"environmental crisis" and replaced by a term implying a long term
process. Our society is oriented to the use of Cause and Effect thinking and
instituting crash solutions directed at symptoms which lull people into the
belief the problem is solved. Man's disharmony with his environment is a
long term evolutionary process and if it continues man may exterminate
himself. The thesis here is that man is not going to change the environment
enough to correct the disharmony, and that the ultimate change will require
an order of change in man he is not yet able to contemplate.
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NOTES FOR CHAPTER 5
1. Hardin, G., "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, Vol. 162,
December, 1968.
2. Galbraith, John Kenneth, "The Affluent Society," Houghton Mifflin,
Boston, 1958.
3. Hardin, Garrett, "Abortion—or Compulsory Pregnancy?" Journal of
Marriage and the Family, 30, 1968.
4. Hardin, Garrett, "Stalking the Wild Taboo," William Kaufmann, Los
Altos, Calif., 1973.
5. Maddox, John, "The Doomsday Syndrome," McGraw-Hill, New York,
1972.
6. Hardin, Garrett, "Nobody Ever Dies of Overpopulation," Science, 171,
1971.
7. Moorhouse, Geoffrey, "Calcutta," Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New
York, 1971.
8. Hardin, Garrett, "Population Biology, and the Law," Journal of Urban
Law, 48, 1971.
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6
GROWTH AND ECONOMICS
Summary
If some economic growth is inevitable, then some economic change is
also inevitable. If we wish to manage growth and also improve our quality of
life, our economic concepts and philosophy must change. New economic
concepts, their relationships to classical concepts, and implications for
economic policy are discussed in this Chapter. The discussion is taken
from the invited papers of Carl Madden and Chester Cooper.
Madden discusses classical economic concepts which, together with
newly emerging thought, will influence economic policy. He also reviews
changes in our culture and describes a global view shaping economic
thought. By applying the concept of entropy to economics he concludes that
waste accumulates faster than useful output but also concludes that the
situation is not hopeless; zero economic growth need not be enforced to
preserve the quality of the environment. He proposes the application of
knowledge to create new concepts of wealth and more efficient use of
energy as possible solutions to the economic entrophy trap.
Madden also states that economic growth, especially that which provides
for social issues, necessitates change. He reviews the costs of such
change and concludes that the costs can be borne. To implement change,
business must be provided a profit motive and other incentives. Sugges-
tions for providing these incentives are given and the concept of corporate
social accounting is introduced. He also discusses the policy implications
of economic change, outlimiting the elements of a government-business
growth policy which could lead to an improved quality of life.
Cooper introduces a concept of "sustainable growth" defined as
economic growth which provides sufficient discretionary income per capita
to provide a desired quality of life without environmental degradation. He
states that such growth requires a perception of stewardship or legacy by
society so that resources are conserved and the environment is preserved
for future generations. In discussing policy and planning he stresses the
need for developing goals responsive to the needs of society and em-
phasizes the need for close coordination between the goal-setting process
and the planning process. He believes that planning should be integrative,:
addressing social as well as economic and physical issues.
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Classical Concepts of Economic Growth
Some economic growth is inevitable. Somewhere between the extremes
of uncontrolled massive growth and zero growth lies the growth and change
we require. In the next decades, hoever, the character of our growth must
change. Ways to minimize environmental degradation and to provide a bet-
ter quality of life for a greater portion of our population must be found.
If economic changes are to be brought about, new economic concepts
will have to be developed. However, the classical economic concepts will
continue to be valid. Economic growth will occur within the existing frame-
work and will be accomplished over a long time. The classical concepts,
within which the new policies must be made, are explained by Madden.
Madden points out that change and economic growth are inextricably
linked. Economic growth does not refer merely to the increase in the num-
ber of physical and tangible objects. It is a more complicated concept,
rooted in human values, and still subject to advances in understanding.
At times economists have refered to physical economic growth in "real"
output in ways suggesting their oversight or ignorance of the laws of
biology and physics. Without doubt, the growth in numbers of any specific
form of economic product within any given space is subject to the biological
and physical laws of retardation.
The confusion concerning economic growth arises from efforts to depict
"extensive" economic growth in physical terms, as when economic growth
has encompassed the structural growth of an economy, the extension of
geographic frontiers —as in the economic history of the United States, the
development of a steel industry in a backward nation, or the doubling of
electric capacity in an advanced economy. Economic growth, as we have
known it, does have a physical counterpart in the increase in the number of
physical objects of given types resulting from the growth of an industry or
firm. But economic growth is more.
Economic Growth Means Growth in Value
Economic growth is growth in value. This can be seen by examining
basic concepts. In economic theory, a commodity is not a physical object
only. A commodity is a relationship between three entities: a producer
(seller), a physical object or person, and a user (buyer). The market value of
a commodity is the discounted present value of the expected (annual) future
services that flow from the physical object or person. Wealth is defined as
the stock of commodities. Thus, wealth is the sum of the present discounted
(market) value of the expected future services that flow from the totality of
commodities.
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For a nation, economic growth is measured by an increase in gross
national product, more precisely by an increase in net national product
(which allows for use of capital in the growth process).
Gross and net national product are measures of value, not of physical
size or physical numbers of objects. GNP is defined as the total market or
exchange value of the final output of goods and services by the nation's
economy, measured in current monetary value. "Real," or constant dollar
(pound, mark, franc, etc.) GNP is not a measure of physical size of output,
but a relative measure of value corrected for changes in the value of money
measured from a base period.
Economic growth, as distinct from growth in simple physical output terms
(i.e., the growth in the number of physical objects made by man), is an im-
portant and evolving concept. Economic growth provides a measure, ad-
mittedly limited to market or exchange value (hence, excluding non-market
wealth creation), of the values hence satisfaction attached by people to the
increase in wealth.
The concept of wealth, as the stock of commodities, is also an important
and evolving concept. It is important to notice that wealth, as representing
the present discounted value of expected future services flowing from ob-
jects or people, does not refer to the past, but to the future. It is important to
notice that all measures of economic value, and hence of economic growth,
are anthropomorphic. That is, these measures of value are meaningful only
in relationship to human purposes, judgments, and evaluations. Indeed,
their meaning is even more restricted by conventional reference to market
or exchange value, excluding all other forms of human value.
In measuring economic growth, it is well known that GNP measures the
total value of output unreliably, but from period to period GNP measures
reasonably well the change in the value of output. GNP, as mentioned, in-
cludes the ,cost of maintaining or replacing an economy's productive
capacity of plant and equipment (but not human skills). National income, a
measure of the income attributable to the agents of production, excludes
these costs and is a better measure of the net increase in the value of out-
put available to firms and people.
Economic Growth Means Growth in Productivity
Economic growth also may be viewed in productivity terms. The concept
of productivity is not widely grasped with any accuracy. The concept is an
analogy to physical efficiency, but it is not the same as physical efficiency.
Physical efficiency is defined as the ratio of useful output to total input. The
concept is anthropomorphic; someone has to define useful. Physical ef-
ficiency also is subject to the laws of thermodynamics: energy is conserved;
entropy increases (of which more later).
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Productivity refers to economic output as a ratio to total input. Because of
the difficulty in measuring accurately the inputs of capital and natural
resources to the processes of wealth creation, productivity—as a con-
venience—is measured most often in labor input terms. Hence, producti-
vity is most often expressed as "output-per manhour." The difficulty with
measuring productivity in output per manhour terms is the tendency created
thereby for false inferences from the measure to the conclusion that produc-
tivity gains are attributable to improvements in the productivity of labor it-
self. In fact, gains in productivity occur in an exceedingly roundabout
process, ranging from cultural behavior (in religious, social, political
beliefs, habits, and institutions), through basic science and educational
policy, to the nature of economic institutions and incentives (the patent
system, tax incentives for investment, and the like). The point about the
origin and configuration of productivity gains is important to understanding
who pays for change and how.
Economic growth, when viewed in productivity terms, is expressed as the
increase in GNP, or in national income, per worker. Or, it may be stated on
a per capita basis if we wish to consider output or income in relation to total
population. Here, too, the emphasis is on the increase in value terms. At
bottom, then, economic growth implies growth in 1) the total value of the
nation's output, 2) consumption per capita, and 3) the level of living stan-
dards that the population enjoys.
Economic Growth Means Change
Economic growth is inseparable from change, and growth is ac-
companied by change, although not all change is growth. The conditions
under which growth occurs impose change. "Creative Destruction" is the
term employed by the late Joseph A. Schumpeter to characterize the
method or process of economic change in the enterprise system (1).
Schumpeter described the Creative Destruction process this way:
"The opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the
organizational development of the craft shop and factory to such con-
cerns as United States Steel illustrate the same process of industrial
mutation —if I may use that biological term —that incessantly
revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly
destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one."
Change and growth come about when a new product or service invades
an existing market. As, in that market, consumers shift their preference from
the old to the new commodity, the capital used to produce the old com-
modity is gradually devaluated —destroyed —as profits in its sale decline.
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Capital is attracted to the new commodity by its high rates of profit.
Growth comes about as the result of innovation derived from new invention.
Together they render obsolete the plant and equipment, and even the
organization, devoted to producing existing commodities; that is, eventually
they reduce its value to salvage.
In an enterprise economy, competition in the marketplace serves a social
function analogous to the mechanism of survival in the evolutionary process
of biology. The test of success in the marketplace is nothing less than sur-
vival, and the reward of survival for a given commodity may be growth. In the
market, competition is impersonal but pervasive; and advances in
technology of worldwide transport and communication increase and in-
tensify the worldwide forces of competition if not limited by restraints on
trade and investment among nations.
Competition in a nation exists not only between products or services of a
given type but also between geographic regions and geographically
separated urban regions. In a political system such as the United States,
which provides freedom for the geographic flow of information, ideas,
money capital, people, and jobs within a broad geographic area, resources
tend to flow to those places where they yield the most human satisfaction.
The process operates in small, marginal movements which, however, when
cumulated over time periods, reveal very large changes.
This principle, not at all well understood, helps explain migration pat-
terns. For example, at present stages of affluence and technical means of
transport, the United States is becoming more (1) urbanized, (2)
metropolitanized, (3) suburbanized, and (4) coastalized. Urban movement
is explained by greater economic opportunity, even for poor blacks, in
cities than on farms or in the rural countryside. Studies of the Urban Institute
show that poor blacks, drawn from the 1967 OEO sample of the poor, who
migrate to urban areas, within five years experience increases of $2,000 in
real income over non-migrants in the sample.
Economic growth is thus an evolutionary process in which new
technology is tested for its survival value in terms of superior ability to
provide human satisfaction. It is important to understand that in a market
economy, growth is impelled by the organization of firms in markets. The
firm provides a means of comparing private benefits, as measured by
revenues of firms, to costs of production, or private resource costs, includ-
ing ancillary taxation costs to firms of public goods necessary to produc-
tion, such as the overhead costs of urban life. Private firms are driven to
reduce costs through the motivation of profit in the face of competition by
other producers.
It is also important to understand that the social function of profit is to im-
pel producers to provide the goods and services that people want and have
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the ability to buy, at reasonable prices, without being forced to do so. The
profit system gives us (1) a method of organizing economic activity that en-
courages enterprise, (2) a way to stimulate risk-taking and innovation, (3) a
way to allocate the skills of people, our natural resources, and our know-
how to purposes consumers think are most useful, and (4) a way to make
heads of firms, whether they want to or not, always try to cut costs and make
resources go as far as possible consistent with consumer tastes and in-
come.
Finally, it is important to understand that economic processes supplant
one another as do biological species, according to their survival value. Sur-
vival value among economic processes is determined by relative produc-
tivity, in relation to consumer values expressed in purchasing habits and
preferences. The result is that the economic growth process is evolutionary
with respect to rising productivity, in turn related to physical efficiency. The
marketplace applies the test of economic productivity to the many com-
peting technologies which may add to physical efficiency. Thus, economic
evolution is directly and profoundly related, in market economics, to the
evolution of scientific knowledge and technical proficiency. And it is con-
strained by definitions and content of cultural concepts such as wealth, in-
come, productivity, and cost. These concepts have changed their meaning
during the course of industrial evolution and the advance of knowledge. We
can expect that in the future their meaning and content will continue to
change in response to broadened human understanding.
Economic Growth Needs A Cultural Framework
GNP, the value of output, in the United States grew at a rate of 3.3 per
cent a year during the 1929-1969 period, or 2.0 per cent a year on a per
capita basis, both figures adjusted for price changes.
What is the mechanism by which economic growth occurs in our society?
We must realize that the conditions favoring economic growth develop in a
framework of social beliefs, customs, and institutions. Economic life must
not be rigidly constricted by custom or tradition; rather, it must emphasize
individual creativeness and self-reliance. It must foster the idea that people
are to be esteemed for what they do rather than for their family's social
position. Work and material success must be admired. A degree of respon-
sible competition among people must be favored. And opportunities for in-
dividual economic betterment should be widely available.
The climate of thought must favor a reasoned approach to problems.
People must be willing to give up digging sticks for plows, horses for cars,
sulfur drugs for penicillin, through faith in the validity of material advance, or
in the validity of the principle that applied knowledge improves the quality
of life. The scientific spirit, the experimental attitude, and respect for univer-
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sal physical and biological pattern and configuration stimulate
technological progress. Supersitition, witchcraft, fatalism, elements which
have dominated many cultures, are enemies of economic growth.
There must be a unifying and reasonably stable government to maintain
law and order, to protect both political and economic rights, to enforce con-
tracts, and in general to establish, maintain, and alter rules of the economic
game. Private investors cannot make investment decisions which look to the
future unless life is in some degree orderly and predictable. Producers can-
not market complex services stemming from technological advance unless
there exists widespread understanding of the beneficent purposes of such
activity.
Managerial and technological talents must be developed by society and
available for employment. The educational system, and ancillary cultural in-
stitutions of mass media, entertainment, journalism, the church, the univer-
sity must share to some degree a common "public philosophy" concerning
ultimate human values. There must be people who can and do organize,
launch, and guide new organizations and new ways of doing things.
There must be investment in transportation and communication networks.
People who are isolated may not engage in industrial or regional
specialization. Also, there must be institutions of banking and the capital
market to provide a monetary medium for trading, for saving, and providing
throughout the geographic reaches of an economy many competitive chan-
nels through which savings can move to investors.
Government Fosters Economic Growth
Government and enterprise have to cooperate to achieve economic
growth. In the specific processes of the market, business leaders in the
United States (each firm acting independently of others) provide the primary
leadership for economic growth. In pursuit of profit, adventure, prestige,
power, and creative satisfaction, business leadership struggles to survive in
the marketplace according to existing customs and rules at a given time.
Management decisions to build more plants, to do more research, to ex-
pand employment, to re-organize firms, to adopt new marketing techniques,
to change processes, to introduce new products or services, to borrow
more funds are all market-conditioned and geared to short run (ten^year, at
most) planning horizons. Investment analysts follow corporate results in
profits on a year-to-year, or even shorter basis, and in making investment
decisions. The long run is heavily discounted as against immediate per-
formance.
Government in the United States, however, has made powerful long-run
contributions to the conditions of economic growth. Perhaps the most
powerful contributions have aimed at designing framework goals within
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which economic development could flourish. Provision of personal freedom
and mobility of resources, private property, and limited federal government
is a keystone concontribution of government. The constitutional rights
provide mobility of key economic elements —ideas, information, money,
goods, jobs, people. The public education system, beginning with the Nor-
thwest Ordinance of 1789, used public capital (land) to finance human
capital investment (educated people). In the early nineteenth century, in-
vestment in "inland improvements" with government funds, later use of
public land to spur land settlement (Homestead Acts), a laissez-faire policy
of bank and corporate chartering, all stimulated economic development In
the mid-nineteenth century and beyond, government devised powerful
means of transfering throughout all the states knowledge of science and
technology to farming and allied arts through the Morrill Act of 1862, setting
up land grant colleges, and through later legislation, creation of the Federal
Reserve System in 1913 gave the country a central banking system to
check recurrent money panics. And so on, until the Employment Act of
1946 established federal responsibility for high employment levels.
Government also directly participates in economic growth. It has been
and is a major investor in research and development. In transportation,
Government helped finance canals and railroads, and today it continues to
build highways and to subsidize aviation and shipping. It invests in labor
force improvement through public education, contributes greatly to college
education by creating and improving state institutions for technical and
higher education, by awarding research grants to universities, and by
making loans and giving scholarships to students.
Government promotes growth indirectly through its international
economic policies, such as tariffs in the nineteenth century and foreign aid
since World War II, or as in the space effort that has produced technological
fallout for industry as well as vast new public understanding ("Spaceship
Earth") of natural laws and of our economic and technological capabilities
(If man can go to the moon, why can't he ...).
Government also promotes growth in the U.S. by its policies of fostering
competition. Beginning in the nineteenth century with the New York law of
1811, states began passing general incorporation laws to enfranchise cor-
porations. By 1875, such general laws of incorporation, including1
provisions to protect creditors, were common. By as early as 1865, the
modern conception of the corporation had emerged, holding that the rights
of creditors and owners as well as technical operation of the business were
subject to the discretion of management, acting as trustees for the owners.
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Government fosters competition also by social policy respecting
monopoly. If a corporation has a monopoly of a desired good, it can hold off
the market a portion of the supply, force the price up, and make
"monopoly" profits. Our social policy deals with monopoly in several ways.
If the monopoly is "natural" because technology is too expensive to
duplicate, we regulate corporations, as in utilities, telephone, television, air
transportation, banking, natural gas, and other industries. If U.S. cor-
porations engage in practices that restrain trade or tend toward monopoly,
they are subject to suit by the U.S. government for violation of antitrust laws.
Corporations are also subject to a variety of regulations concerning their
standard of behavior in relation to public necessity or convenience. These
regulations, in effect, change the definition of cost, productivity, or revenue
for regulated corporations, adding social to private costs or reducing
revenue (which amounts to increasing cost) by restricting behavior. Such
regulations relate to product purity, conditions of safety, or protection of the
environment.
Science and Technology Stimulate Economic Growth
The basic economic factor causing economic growth is investment, but
productivity-improving investment is most often based on advances in
science and technology. A distinction should be made between labor-
saving investment, as improving the internal combustion engine, and in-
dustry-creating investment, as creation of the electronic computer industry.
Science and technoJogy contribute to both processes. They do so by im-
proving the physical efficiency of an existing process (making cars) or by
an invention or discovery creating a new economic process (discovering
the logic of computers, inventing the computer as an application of the
logic).
In the broad sweep of industrial history, science and technology have in-
teracted in creating a rising spiral of efficiency in processes, leading to
productivity gains in the economy. Science and technology make possible
waves of innovation in the economy. An innovation is something new; in art,
drama, commerce, industry, finance, or government. An economic in-
novation is not the same as an invention. The inventor is an individual gifted
in translating technical knowledge into a new technique or product; in-
ventors tell us they are rebels against fixed attitudes in a technical area of
life. An innovation occurs when some person or firm develops inventions
(either social, economic, or technical) into workable productive processes.
Innovation, however, traces out in history the forward march of science and
technology.
The scientific revolution, which has gained momentum since World War
II, promises to speed the evolution of economic processes throughout the
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world. This broad-scale revolution of knowledge not only generates new
products and services; it creates also a new perception of the relationship
of ecology to economics. This means that the scientific revolution is not a
typical wave of innovation. Rather, the scientific revolution creates a time of
broad social change; it fits Hegel's tenet that gradual quantitative change
can ultimately burst into a qualitative revolution. Earlier, the three stages of
the industrial revolution created waves of economic innovation, resulting in
social change. The new knowledge of the scientific revolution demands
social innovation as a pre-requisite to economic change.
Growth Requires Saving and Investment
Economic growth results from the process of saving and investing.
Saving means not consuming. Investing means spending (or allocating
resources) for goods and services other than for consumption. Saving
means withholding resources from consumption: investing means using the
resources for non-consumption purposes i.e., to increase or improve the
means of production.
Savings decisions and investment decisions in our economy are made by
two different groups which, though some members in the groups may be
the same, have to be linked by an institutional mechanism —the capital and
credit markets. Savers include individuals, families, business firms, finan-
cial institutions, and governmental units. Investors include individuals,
business firms, and financial institutions. Obviously, for example, families
are "on both sides of the market" in that they may be both savers and in-
vestors. This is also true of other participants in the capital and credit
markets.
These markets work by linking together in a nationwide network of volun-
tary interfacing between institutions of the market, the countless decisions
to save and funneling the savings into financial institutions. Decisions by in-
vestors, lenders, managers of financial institutions —such as insurance
companies, pension funds, mutual funds —determine the uses to which
savings will be put.
Stock exchanges provide no new savings or investment but represent
means for shifting ownership or creditor rights through trading of equity
shares or fixed-income securities. But in the credit and capital markets and
within corporations (in part) new savings flow to higher priority investments.
These higher priority investments provide the productivity gains, an in-
crease in the value of output per worker or per capita, that are translated
into economic growth.
Business Runs on Profits
Every one knows that the corporation is a device for starting and running
a business. Businesses create economic growth. How do they do it? Busi-
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nesses produce, buy and sell, trade, or perform services in the market-
place, motivated by profit. The public, according to polls, believes manufac-
turing business makes 28 per cent profit after taxes compared to the cor-
rect figure (1971) of 5 per cent. For all financial corporations, the figure for
profit rates on sales after taxes is only 2.3%. For the average wholesaler or
retailer, the figure is 1.5%. Communications firms have the highest average,
6.2%, but these firms, many of which are government regulated, use far
more capital equipment per sales dollar than most industries (they are
"capital-intensive"), and in part they must use after-tax profits to buy it.
Modern corporations, then, organize and carry on trade and production to
operate on a profit margin averaging less than a nickel on a dollar of sales
after taxes. Owners of corporations; that is, shareholders, who invest in
equity shares, may make gains resulting not only from profits (dividend in-
come) but also capital gains (a rise in the market value of the assets behind
the shares owned). "Growth" companies pay out small dividends, but
owners risk savings in them to get "capital gains."
The profit system puts a premium on people who can do things other
people want done. It gives people opportunity by and large based on what
they can do, regardless of circumstances of birth (excepting
discrimination —defacto —as in other leading institutions of church, labor
union, university, and government, against black and female minorities).
Business firms, operating under the profit motive and facing competition,
respond quickly and flexibly to changes in consumer tastes and
technology. Although television was invented in the 1920's, years were
required to perfect its mass production. But, through competition, mass
production from 1947 to about 1970 placed black and white television sets
in more than 90 per cent of United States homes. When people began to
"eat out" more, franchised fast-service restaurants learned to limit menus,
rigidly control time of preparation, cut costs through self-service, locate
stores conveniently, and buy large quantities with precision, timing and
skill. These are only two of thousands of examples, taken for granted in a
market economy, of how business firms respond flexibly to consumer tastes
and technology.
It is important to understand that, by and large, individual existing firms,
whether they want to change or not, are impelled to change by competition.
To an existing firm, sudden change devaluates its existing capital. But, if it
does not change, the value of its assets, and the value of ownership rights
to them suffer capital losses. Individual firms are free to change or not
change, but profit is a powerful lash and a powerful reward.
Now, naturally, the larger in scope or substance is a change in
technology or consumer tastes, the longer it takes for business to respond.
For example, a major change in technology is resisted by firms whose
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present capital would be rendered less valuable. This is the reason Schum-
peter spoke of innovation as "invading a market." This, too, is the
philosophy behind the patent system, which gives an inventor a 17-year
monopoly but publishes the design for others to learn from.
However, the market system and the profit motive spread the risk of the
destruction of capital that results from economic growth. If a large firm or in-
dustry is "invaded" by an innovation, the market allows time for adjustment,
but competition in the market spurs adjustment. There is no central direc-
tion, however. And the risk is spread not only over time, but as between
management, workers, and stockholders; suppliers and bankers; and
others related to the firm or industry—all of whom are free to make their
own adjustments to developments.
Keep in mind, however, that major firms, faced with the invasion of an in-
novation, are reluctant to change in a way that devalues existing capital. In-
deed, invasion by an innovation is analogous to a struggle between
species, and managers of existing firms may choose to resist rather than
risk the new. What's more, business managers have to keep in mind the
real changes in technology and taste, not such changes advocated by in-
ventors or students of taste. As a result, managers of existing firms may be
cautious simply because of past success, and this is why the possibility
should always be kept open for new entry into an industry facing com-
petition. Existing firms seldom invest in capital-devaluating new technology
until it is thoroughly market tested. And, it may be good management policy
for dominant firms to let some other firm pay the costs of market-testing, and
to move only when results are unmistakable.
Even with such a proviso, however, the dynamic United States economy
in the past, swept by vast waves of innovation, has been no great friend of
the industrial status quo. One great institutional innovation of the enterprise
economy is bankruptcy. Bankruptcy gives a way of getting rid of unwanted
institutions. In a highly developed society experiencing change, getting rid
of unwanted institutions, those whose value is declining is a critical task. In-
deed, perhaps the time is not far off to create, by analogy to corporate
bankruptcy, a concept and means for instituting "social bankruptcy" for
non-profit institutions or government programs of low priority.
Milton Friedman (2) has explained the advantage of the enterprise
system in changing the status quo.
"An unrecognized virture of the market vs. political arrangement is
precisely that it is far less subject to the tyranny of the status quo. It is
only necessary for one individual to see how he can benefit from
changing the status quo for him to start to do so. In a truly free market
he does not have to get permission from anyone ... Contrast this with
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the political process. To adopt some measure requires first persuading
a majority before the measure can be tried. It is hard to start small, and
once started, to fail. That is why governmental intervention is at once so
rigid and unstable."
Limits to Economic Growth
Do we have to stop economic growth in order for mankind as a species to
survive on earth? Will the earth's interlocking resources be unable to sup-
port present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the
year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology? This is the basic
problem facing mankind, in the opinion of Jay W. Forrester of MIT and his
colleagues Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L Meadows, Jorgen Randers and
William H. Behrens III, who in 1972 published The Limits To Growth, as a
report of the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind (3).
The "Zero Economic Growth" movement is the extreme form of the
proposition that major emphasis should be placed on quality as against
quantity of output. Proponents of this doctrine expound the thesis that we
are now about a generation from the point of no return in overusing natural
resources.
The Club of Rome comprises some eighty members, including scientists,
humanists, economists, educators, civil servants; members are represen-
tatives of a wide variety of cultural and value systems, none of them involved
in current political decisions, nor has the Club as a whole any ideological,
political or national commitments. They share the common conviction that
the problems facing mankind are of such complexity and interrelationship
that traditional policies and institutions are no longer able to cope with
them. Members of the Club of Rome point out that the club is not to be iden-
tified with the work of Forrester and colleagues but probably would endorse
its main conclusions.
The project tried, through a set of mathematical models (the method is
called "systems dynamics"), to simulate the world economy, and, by com-
puting values of the model through 100 or more years of time, to trace out
the dynamics of the system. The major model asked what were the in-
terrelations between global population growth, pollution, food production,
natural resources depletion, and economic development stated in quan-
tifiable terms of rates of change and absolute levels.
The research explores the effects of the interaction of the growth modes
of these variables, which mutually influence and often reinforce one
another. It provides, in effect, and for the first time, a panoramic view of the
world's working, that could never have been obtained by making separate
analyses. It is, therefore, a description of present dynamic situations and
outcomes; it is not intended to indulge in predictions; it is explorative. And
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if not even predictive, it is surely not prescriptive.
Complex systems are sometimes counter-intuitive. The modern complex
economy is beset by information feedback. Our dependence on the
automobile is growing through feedback effects on population distribution.
That is, the more cars and roads we have, the more people are enabled to
live in suburbs; but the more people are living in suburbs, the more cars
and roads we need. Or, people in cities live in poverty, so we build low rent
housing for the poor, so more poor people move into the city, creating an
oversupply of the poor for existing jobs, and thus poverty in the city in-
creases.
New Concepts of Economic Growth
Many studies take our present cultural norms of "industrialism" as
given. They describe the dynamics of rising world population and spread-
ing industrialism, to show that limits exist on the growth of world population,
expressed as depletion of natural resources, mounting environmental
damage, or food shortages. Much evidence now suggests that the era of in-
dustrialism is indeed drawing to a close.
If we are entering a new economic era, our economic concepts will
evolve. In this Section Madden reviews some of the features of new
economics which must be implemented to improve the quality of the en-
vironment and the quality of life.
He discusses cultural changes and a new global view in which the whole
is seen as more than just the sum of its parts and man is seen to be closely
interdependent with his environment. Madden applies the concept of en-
tropy to economics, concluding that with our present technology, waste ac-
cumulates faster than useful output as the economy grows. He discusses
whether we can find ways to retard this economic entropy; the proponents
of Zero Economic Growth contend these is no way to pile up output without
being buried by waste. He discusses two strategies for overcoming
economic entropy: more efficient use of energy and application of
knowledge to develop new concepts of wealth, new principles for selecting
economic processes and formulation of new economic growth policies.
Cultural Changes
The earlier waves of innovation created by economic growth harnessed to
productivity-increasing science and technology changed the culture of in-
dustrial societies. These economic processes have been evolving; that is,
they have changed our society and its values, creating at each stage a
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future different from the past. A moment's reflection brings up countless
examples of cultural change created by economic growth.
Now, the scientific revolution presents us with a culture crisis. The search
for improving the quality of life, at its extreme proposing Zero Economic and
Population Growth, is directed toward how to abandon culture of the past
and to create new culture —a more livable environment. What is meant here
by culture is the definition of anthoropologists who, in the nineteenth cen-
tury, studied the nonbiological extensions of human beings that allow them
to achieve more effective interaction with their environment. Culture refers
to all the things and devices, including nonmaterial things such as myths,
beliefs, and stories, that human groups use to enhance, protect, or express
themselves. Culture allows the human species to survive in the evolutionary
process without having to accomplish biological specialization.
If we do not control our culture: in the evolutionary advance of mankind, it
will devour us. Through the ages, man has controlled his culture in order to
survive. He has adapted it to conditions. Ours is an age when the existing
culture is strained by new knowledge that conflicts with our beliefs and
customs. The explosion of new knowledge is not the same order of im-
portance as the earlier waves of innovation, and they were powerful enough
in changing our culture. It is epochal in scope, ranking with the
Renaissance. When a culture is put under strain, its alternatives are few.
One alternative is that population is checked. This has happened before to
other cultures that did not adapt. A second alternative is that the culture is
fragmented by internal dissension or external domination. The third alter-
native, and by far the more consistent with survival, is the invention of new
culture. In the long history of mankind, all evidence favors adaptation.
The New Culture Changes Our World View
Epochal changes in mankind's history stem from new knowledge that is
so general, powerful, and persuasive that it invades the predominant "view
of reality" or "world-view"; the set of assumptions, beliefs, and mental
habits that shape our perception of reality. We find ourselves at such a
hinge of human history, where the old culture at almost every turn clashes
with the new.
What is the old culture, where did it come from? As Peter Drucker (4)
points out since Descartes, we have exercised 300 years of intellectual
habit. Rene Descartes, the French philosopher and mathematician, more
than anyone else —more than even Galileo, or Calvin, or Hobbes, or Locke,
or Rousseau, more than Newton—has determined the scope of our per-
ception, our basic concept of what is rational, what is plausible, "common
sense."
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Descartes made two magnificent contributions that have impelled us for
300 years. First, he gave us our basic axiom about the nature of the
universe, that is, the nature of the order in the universe. It is the axiom, "The
whole is the result of its parts."
Second, Descartes invented the method to make his axiom effective in
probing nature and organizing knowledge. His mathematics established a
universal quantitative logic. We have relied on this universal logic to deter-
mine relationships between concepts, and it has been capable of serving
as universal symbol and universal language.
Descartes' formulation created modern scientific analysis and the
modern specialized university, army, and business organization. It now
eventuates in a maddening confusion of tongues among various branches
of knowledge. It makes easy the growth of delimited bureaucracy. It
stultifies perception of any aspects of reality except analytical.
The characteristics of our modern disciplines are incompatible with
Descartes. Every one of them has moved from cause to pattern and con-
figuration. They are concepts of a whole, of an organism or an institution or
a process that can only be understood as a whole, as a pattern, as a con-
figuration.
The contrast is sharp between the two world views. First, the basic axiom
is that the whole is more than, different from, the sum of its parts; whole and
parts are interacting. Second, man may not stand, as it were, outside nature,
analyzing nature apart from himself. Cartesian thought led to control over
nature —the promethean myth —as man separated his mind from his body,
following Descarte's dictum, "I think; therefore, 1 am." And finally, the new
world view is that of irreversible process, not reversible action within ab-
stract time and space.
The three characteristics of the new era may be called holism, naturalism,
immanentism. We are about to embark on a strategy of knowledge which
sees processes holistically—sees the patterns and configurations that
determine the flow of events within processes. The guiding philosophy of
the new culture also includes a new naturalism, which affirms that man is a
part of nature, of the universe, that itself is always in the process of
becoming. And, third, a new immanentism sees that the system, organism,
or situation that is in process of evolving is determined not from outside but
from within.
The debate over limits to growth signifies that a profound re-examination
is taking place in man's view of his relationship to nature, to his institutions,
and to his fellow man. Ours is a society which, until recently, rarely
challenged the virtue of continued economic growth, per se. But today's
concern about the quality of life and about the impact of economic and
population growth on human survival is the outcome of the very scientific
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revolution that has generated much of today's industrial capacities. It is the
very new knowledge itself which challenges old viewpoints.
As a result, our society is at-a point of profound change, from a society in
which production of goods was of primary concern to one guided by a new
growth policy, dominated more by services and by the creation and use of
new knowledge. The present is a period of marked social change, one
aspect of which is the search for a new policy of balanced growth to guide
that change. Such .a new policy of balanced growth will have profound ef-
fects in changing present institutions. These institutions themselves are
required now to undergo evolution, in order to re-orient themselves toward
the tasks appropriate for a society reaching for a new level of performance.
The range of criteria by which to judge institutional performance will be
broader in scope and longer in time perspective. To determine these
criteria is a major cultural task of our times.
Entropy In The Economic Process
In terms of economic theory and policy, the concern of environmentalists
that eventuates in doctrines of Zero Economic Growth and Zero Population
Growth raises the issue of the relationship of entropy to economics. As
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen argues, the issue is fundamental (5). The
issue addresses the meaning of the flow and irrevocability of time, the
characteristics of life, the nature of causality in biological and social
science, and the theory of economic development.
To understand the impact of the idea of entropy, consider first the con-
cept of time in economics. The concept is drawn directly from classical
mechanics, in turn derived from the mathematics of Descartes. The Car-
tesian, reference-axis depiction of time assumes that time intervals are car-
dinally measurable. That is, it is assumed that qualitative differences in time
-periods can be ignored in measuring time intervals. The implication of
assuming that time is cardinally measureable is that time is also reversible.
Economists, in employing the mathematics of Descartes, unwittingly
assume that time is reversible. Economic theory studies the allocation of
resources among competing ends, assuming that tastes, technology, and
resources are given. In analyzing the relationships between revenues and
costs, economists pay litfle or no regard to the impact of the economic
process itself on tastes, technology, or the availability of resources. These
aspects of the economic processes are considered as "externalities," that
is, as costs or benefits which are "external" to the theory of the firm or
market. Unwittingly, economists have failed to realize that waste and
pollution are not "external" to the economic process, but flow from the
irrevocable nature of time.
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In the classical theory of thermodynamics physicists have had ftp face the
irrevocable character of time. The first law of thermodynamics n&lds that
throughout the flow of time, in any closed energy system, energy is\con-
served; that is, total energy remains constant and may be transformed^ut
not created or destroyed. The second law of thermodynamics involves eri^
tropy. Broadly, entropy measures the rate at which free or latent energy,
available to do work, becomes bound energy no longer able to do work.
The Entropy Law, simply stated, holds that the entropy of energy systems in-
creases constantly and irrevocably. The Entropy Law means that waste and
pollution (i.e., bound energy unavailable to do work) increase inevitably in
the flow of energy in any closed energy system operating through dynamic,
irreversible time. The laws of thermodynamics clearly apply to economic
processes just as they also apply to any other processes involving energy
flows. Indeed, other things being equal, waste and pollution pile up at a
faster rate than output grows.
The Accumulation of Waste
To grasp, therefore, the implications of this new insight into the nature of
the economic process, and to arrange policy measures consistent with its
significance, is a part of the new world-view through which alternative
growth processes, and questions such as who pays for growth and how,
must be seen. To begin to see them, it may be helpful to examine the Zero
Economic Growth and Zero Population Growth arguments from the per-
spective of the earlier Malthusian theory.
Malthus (1766-1834) focused his entire social and economic thought on
his ideas about population. He argued that population when unchecked
grows at a rate so much faster than it is possible to increase the supply of
food, that population is constantly pressing on the means of subsistence.
What Malthus overlooked is easy to see by hindsight. It is the growth of
productivity in the last century and a half. To put the point another way, we
know that in physical terms, output is a function of inputs, in any production
process. We call the relation "the production function." Malthus thought the
production function would stay stable, that the relation itself of inputs to out-
put would not change.
But the production function did not stay fixed and invariant. By ever-
increasing productivity in the Western World, we have shifted the produc-
tion function to get each year on average more output for a given input of
resources. So, in the industrial countries, both our population and our stan-
dard of living have risen, and we have so far escaped "the Malthusian trap."
The present-day Zero Economic Growth school may be called "neo-
Malthusian." To see why, we need to focus on the waste created by produc-
tion, which, as we have seen, piles up at a faster rate than useful output
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does. To see how, we may consider a twentieth-century discovery of the
relation Eugene Zubrow of the University of Colorado calls, not only aptly
but accurately, "the crud function."
A crud is defined as a stockpile of noods, and a nood is defined as a
negative good. An economic good is the physical embodiment of a stream
of services which is scarce and useful. A nood is the physical embodiment
of something that must be harmful—and so, results in disutility. Also, it must
be relatively abundant. And crud is, as we have seen, a function of output,
just as output in turn is a function of input. Crud mounts with output, but at a
faster, exponential, pace. The Zero Economic Growth thesis is that there is
no way to keep piling up output without being buried in mountains of crud.
Strategies for Retarding Entropy
The issue posed by the Zero Economic Growth thesis is whether
mankind can systematically shift the crud function, as it earlier has shifted
the production function. We need to get less crud for a given output. But
how? To answer this question is to lay the groundwork for understanding
generally the requirements of alternative growth policies consistent with the
morality of science seen as natural philosophy. And, by the same token, to
answer this question provides a rationale for policies involving trade-offs of
distributing the benefits and costs of the economic process with equity and
clarity, and therefore, with political legitimacy.
The escape from "the entropy trap" posed by the Zero Economic Growth
thesis requires a step forward in cultural evolution to full recognition of the
meaning to the economic process of the laws of thermodynamics. It is not
technology which is to come to mankind's rescue. Already, as we have seen
earlier, market economies provide a survival test of alternative
technologies. What may come to our rescue is therefore not "more
techology." Rather, it is the guideposts provided by the scientific revolution
itself. Our knowledge, and its implied morality, not technology, provide the
choice.
By analogy to biological evolution, industrial society has, in general, only
two strategies of escape from the entropy trap:
1. deliver more useful energy to our systems and substitute
energy for matter in processes; or
2. bring to bear more useful information in social and economic
processes.
These two abstract and interrelated strategies—not now fully
grasped —offer the rationale for designing policy consistent with balanced
economic growth. They suggest that the Zero Economic Growth thesis,
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though certainly as valuable as the earlier Malthusian theory, does not
means necessarily an end to the growth of wealth. Far from it. The Zero
Economic Growth thesis has, as its highly significant positive value, the vir-
tue of challenging the world-view of the industrial society which has hitherto
ignored the crucial role of environmental balance and resource depletion.
In its industrial stage, mankind has learned to "get more from the same."
Now, say the Zero Economic Growth advocates, he must learn to "accept
the same, but from less." It is the thesis of the present argument that the
Zero Economic Growth thesis misstates the alternative. The alternative is, as
Buckminster Fuller has argued, "to get more from less." That is, the view
held here is that wealth can positively increase from economizing much
more severely on material inputs to the economic process than before.
Using Energy to Retard Entropy
The first strategy, bringing more useful energy to our systems, means im-
proving energy-conversion ratios over the widest possible range of
physical, economic, and social processes. We can no longer rely as a mat-
ter of principle on brute increases in total energy use. We have as yet to
take into account how growth in total energy use carries system effects in
heat pollution and environmental imbalance. Limitless energy appears no
more possible than limitless growth in populations of physical objects,
because the Entropy Law places a limiting factor on total energy use as well
as material use.
Substituting energy for materials, however, is not incompatible with im-
proving energy-conversion ratios. Involved is a design principle of great
power to create future wealth. Examples include Fuller's geodesic dome,
giving a saving of one to a hundred in the use of physical resources to en-
close space. Economizing physical resource-use in achieving given
purposes, through substituting useful energy, extends to house and com-
munity design as both a functional and aesthetic principle. Overhanging
eaves and reflective glass are entropically more effective than profligate
use of air conditioning. In communities, attention to human group behavior
reduces dependence on automobiles, as in Columbia, Maryland, for trips to
school and church, or in protection of pedestrians from car traffic. Sub-
stituting communications for transportation is far less an entropic burden,
where messages are useful. Thus, Dartmouth's president John Kemeny's
proposal for a nationwide, automated and computer-based reference library
is a great entropic gain. Future universities, seen as television production
centers,- having two-way networks of communications, and using teachers
as tutors or coaches or educational managers, but not lecturers offers
similar energy-conversion gains.
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Using Knowledge to Retard Entropy
The second strategy for avoiding or postponing the Entropy Trap in-
volves bringing more useful information to bear on social and economic
processes. The strategy is likely to generate (1) new definitions of the con-
tent of wealth and welfare, (2) a new principle of selection of economic
processes and technology, and (3) a new formulation of economic growth
policy. Such a revision of the strategy of advance in industrial societies also
will revise the means of allocating the costs of growth and financing them.
To bring more useful information to bear on social and economic
processes calls first for reorganizing education, to aim it at Life in all its
manifestations and at imbuing the processes of education with com-
munication of universal pattern and configuration. Such an "invasion" of
education by innovation creates new wealth and devaluates old wealth. The
new wealth is entropically a gain of many magnitudes, and it is likely to
stimulate the growth of wealth in unforeseen amounts. From the viewpoint of
the morality of science as natural philosphy, our slow reorganization of
education is both dangerous and wasteful. Second, the strategy calls for
revolutions in the nation's communications style and policy. The age of
specialization risks destruction of the vestiges of a "public philosophy"
through the proliferation of "sub-cultures" and obstruction of economic ad-
vance from ignorance and fear of advanced technology. Turning the point
around, the conception of the media as to their role, and the view of cor-
porations as to their responsibility in communications also need
revolutionary change. The media role should be to seek for positive as well
as negative understanding. Corporations should communicate what they do
and why and how. Such changes in policy bring more useful information to
bear generally on social processes.
New Concepts of Wealth
To be more specific, bringing more useful information to bear means in-
venting new systems of measurement for social and economic processes in
order to bring about a perception of these processes more consistent with a
global view. The pay-off in such new measurement systems is a
changed perception of social and economic processes that will permit the
creation of new wealth. New wealth, be it remembered, competes with and
destroys old wealth while adding to human welfare. To create new wealth, in
a period of a change in world-view, people must be able to "see" the
possibilities of advance and welfare in doing so.
Keeping in mind, then, that wealth itself has an anthropomorphic aspect
(even the simplest of physico-economic measures, efficiency, requires
human beings to specify purpose), it seems that if perceptions of wealth are
to change, then measurement systems have to change. All this seemingly
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remote concern for perception is at the heart of developing policies for
balanced growth. The present is a time when one world-view gives way to
another. How is the new world-view to be imparted? In the personal sense,
as has been said above, it is to be imparted by restructuring the com-
munication of knowledge. In the technical sense, the new world view has to
be imparted in new measurement systems, which correspond in conception
with the new understandings of the 20th century scientific revolution.
In other words, new content has to be given to concepts of wealth and
welfare, in a deeply technical sense. The substantive reason imbedded in
the scientific revolution itself is that a new economic strategy is called for.
The new growth strategy defines the content of wealth not only in terms of
gains in productivity, conventionally defined, but also in terms of entropic
efficiency.
The technical issue is to include new systems of measuring social costs
and benefits in the calculus of social and economic processes. The prin-
ciple has many applications, only sketched here, in relation to redefining
wealth and welfare. One application is the rapid development, as recom-
mended by the National Academy of Scence and Engineering, of worldwide
systems of measuring in physical terms the state and changes in the state of
the physical environment. A counterpart, equally important, is similar
systems of measuring the social environment, at least in the nation, and if
possible, worldwide (6). Far larger resource-investment in environmental
measurement systems has a high pay-off in bringing more useful in-
formation to social and economic processes, while suppression of in-
formation is threatening to human survival.
Another application lies in fuller social costing of environmental impacts
of economic processes. It should be understood that fuller social costing
changes the content of concepts of wealth, costs, productivity, and income.
New systems of measurement can "internalize" social benefits and costs of
environmental impacts over a wide range. Doing so will allow for market
evaluations to shift the structure of production from processes rapidly
creating large amounts of waste and pollution to processes —in some por-
tion, entirely new ones —that slow the growth of waste and pollution. Fuller
social costing of private production gives a generalized answer to the
question of who pays for change and how. The answer given is that, through
the market, the risks of enterprise in the face of social costing are borne as
before in a complex combination of producers and consumers, but a com-
bination in which costs of devaluating capital are widely shared according
to market principles of independent jugment.
Fuller resource costing operates through pricing principles. The price of
products or services rises in proportion to their environmental drain, either
in production or use. The price,relative to theirs, of substitutes having lower
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social costs, will fall. Consumers, paying fuller social costs, remain free to
choose. But surely, some processes whose private benefits now exceed
their private costs, will be driven out of production by high new social costs.
New Principles for Selecting Economic Processes
The recognition of entropy in economics creates a new principle of selec-
tion of economic processes. How could any change be more powerful and
pervasive than a new principle of selection in evolution? The dogma of
"Bigger and Better" is replaced by a maxim closer to "Smaller is Better."
Economic value becomes identified with minimizing the drain on resources
and the environment of a given economic process and function. A new
policy goal for balanced growth is to discover and attain a degree of
pollution control at which the cost of a little more control or prevention just
equals the benefits—both private and public—of reducing pollution.
Fuller social costing that creates a new selection principle for social and
economic processes requires developing new social indicators of benefit
and cost. Far more investment is needed at once in creating both en-
vironmental and social indicators. The technique of technology assessment
is only in its infancy. These new systems of measurement are vital to fuller
social costing.
To formulate a new policy of balanced growth requires fuller un-
derstanding of the role of knowledge in the social and economic process.
Knowledge, or something amounting to knowledge by virtue of a highly
improbable structure, is the only thing that can grow or evolve in the
process of cultural evolution. While Zero Economic Growth as a policy ap-
pears to overstate the constraints on the economic process, Zero
Population Growth appears to understate the constraints, according to
present understanding. Mankind needs to give more concern to the long
term future in making present decisions, since these decisions change the
process of cultural evolution. In concept the concern should be aimed at
maximizing what Georgescu-Roegen calls "total Life Quantity," that is,
the sum of all individuals to be alive in the future. Zero Population
Growth, it could be argued, takes too superficial a view.
Organizing —Knowledge
In considering knowledge as a process, Kenneth Boulding distinguishes
between "printing" and "organizing" as forms of knowledge. Printing refers
to the ability of a structure to reproduce itself, to make a copy of itself. We
see this in the behavior of genes. We see it, Boulding points out, in the
mass production of physical commodities, which is largely threer
dimensional printing. Rote learning and basic emotional sets are a
neurological form of printing. Organizing knowledge, by contrast, is the ac-
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tion of a gene in generating its phenotype —"As ye sow, so shall ye reap."
In this sense, an idea creates an organization. Or an industrial strategy for a
nation organizes its economic history.
What shall be the organizing knowledge that creates the social and
economic development of the United States and the world in the decades
ahead? The process of economic development is not a process of "prin-
ting" but of "organizing" knowledge. No system of equations can describe
an evolutionary process in which novelty is inherent. The United States, it
could be argued, is in a period of economic development when organizing-
knowedge rather than printing-knowledge represents its major comparative
advantage, in relation to Western Europe and Japan. Our dynamic com-
parative advantage appears to lie in low-cost agriculture (not allowing for
fuller social costing) and high technology products and services. Our
earlier advantages in mass production are being reduced.
To explore further the idea of organizing-knowledge, consider the con-
cept of capital. The traditional view of capital is physical capital —physical
structures such as plants and equipment, schools, buildings, and the like.
But, in considering the role of knowledge in economic processes, we can
see that capital, as economic value, refers to the value of the knowledge im-
posed on the design of physical capital. In essence, from an economic
view, capital consists of knowledge imposed on the physical world.
Economists are trying to develop and measure a concept of "total capital"
that includes intangible as well as tangible resources. The idea suggests
that, to increase our capital, we should concentrate our energies on
knowledge processes —that is, on organizing knowledge.
A new growth strategy of bringing to bear more knowledge and useful
energy in order to slow down the growth of waste and pollution in effect in-
troduces into growth policy a far longer time dimension than is now
possible to cope with effectively. Governmental and business policy is more
and more geared to short run payoffs. Government, by taking on more
operational responsibilities, subjects itself to more evaluation in terms of
short run benefits and costs. Corporations, now largely managed by
professionals, are under short-term scrutiny of investment analysts and por-
tfolio managers having stringent performance standards for short run in-
vestment objectives. For top corporate executives, the pressures of short
run profit results are implacable. To the extent, then, that planning horizons
for balanced growth objectives must be lengthened, the lengthening has to
be built into the benefit-cost measurement system both in government and
in business.
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Sustainable Growth
Given that new concepts of growth and its relationship to new societal
values and the quality of life are emerging what growth can we expect, and
what changes, must we achieve in our fundamental philosophy? Chester
Cooper discusses these questions in his invited paper, with a viewpoint of
ZPG differing with that of the preceding author.
Before embarking on an inquiry into the relationship between growth and
the Good Life, it is important to advance one preliminary observation:
Population growth as opposed to. economic growth is not at issue. No
society can make perceptible improvements in its quality of life if its
energies are absorbed in providing survival kits for its human census. And
while economic growth, at least as measured by GNP, is related in part to
population growth, few societies currently in the "have-not" category can
honestly promise its members anything but a continuing struggle for
existence unless it moves vigorously and expeditiously toward effective
family planning. This is becoming a matter for serious consideration even
among the "have" societies. Thus, Zero Population Growth (with a few,
trivial exceptions) must now be regarded as an essential goal for any
society concerned with providing a meaningful choice of life-styles for its
members.
The question of economic growth is much more complex and subtle.
Here, the issue is not growth or no-growth. Nor does passage to Utopia
come with a firm and unequivocal vote for Zero Economic Growth.
Two fundamentals condition the prospects for achieving some measure
of societal well-being: a substantial sector of society must have access to
discretionary income, and a society must be able and willing to provide ser-
vices and amenities over and above minimal necessary law and order and
security from external threats. Obviously, neither the existence of
discretionary income nor a socially motivated government elite, alone, is
sufficient. The quantities, the kinds and the quality of social services,
whether in the form of police protection or nursing care, reflect the choices
and expectations manifested within the society.
Need For Discretionary Income
The amount and distribution of discretionary income available to or on
call in a society is a product of past (and, to some extent, anticipated)
economic growth and of governmental policy with regard to the distribution
of the fruits of such growth within the society. It is no accident that "poor"
societies have inferior educational systems, medical care programs and
mental health facilities, regardless of the aspirations and desires of their
people. On the other hand, if "rich" societies do not reach out for ex-
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cellence or at least adequacy in these and other fields, it is because either
they have chosen not to do so, perhaps because of other priorities or
because of cultural or religious constraints. Thus, economic growth has
been a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for making possible the
exercise of meaningful choice on an individual level (how many hours of
work and how many hours of leisure) or on a societal level (how many
visiting nurses in a town and how many children in a classroom).
Clearly, then, if a society is to entertain realistic aspirations to move
beyond the level of more survival to a more advanced state of social
fulfillment, the size of the proverbial "pie" must exceed minimal critical
dimensions and must be sliced so that there is enough to go around. For
many societies, especially but not exlusively less-developed societies, a
moratorium on baking bigger pies (no growth) would not only be patently
unjust, but would be a recipe for domestic and international tension. In any
case, we are probably addressing an academic issue; it seems unlikely that
any responsible society would permit it to happen especially as a voluntary,
self-denying act to satisfy the advocates of Zero Economic Growth.
Need For Social Services
The balance struck among social services as well as between services
and industrial production in a society is a reflection (in democracies at
least) of the desires and aspirations of its members. This is the case, even
though competitive, sometimes countervailing individual and social
desires and even though unresponsive governmental and corporate
bureaucracies prevent anything like a perfect match between what is wan-
ted and what is provided.
But even if the system were much more efficient and the signals dispat-
ched to government and corporate policy makers were more sharply discer-
nible, time lags between decision and implementation would have to be
reckoned with. Modern societies (and this encompasses virtually every
society concerning us here) are complex; any consequential shift in policy,
either government or corporate, involves a cycle of research, planning,
decision making, staffing, and implementation more likely to be measured
in years rather than months. And in the meantime, new concerns, revised
expectations and perhaps new knowledge may make yesterday's decisions
redundant or even counter-productive in terms of today's requirements.
Growth and Stewardship
Any critical inquiry into the concept of growth invokes considerations of
the future. But humility as well as prescience is important here. Such
deliberations, particularly if they evolve into prescriptive forms, intrude
upon the lives of those to come. We must, as we project our thinking, be
wary of the traps that lie in trying to penetrate the mists of distant decades;
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who, as he attempted to portray the future in the mid-1940's, would have
been able to sketch more than an abstract impression of our world today?
The kind of judgments we wish to make about the future are much more
complex than can be provided through the extrapolation of a few selected
statistical series.
Since the concept of "stewardship" implies present restraint for the sake
of future benefit, we would be prudent to limit our considerations to a few
decades ahead. Personal, even collective, discounting of the future
becomes increasingly great as a society plans for generations it is destined
never to see. This takes on a different dimension, however, when one con-
templates the span of a generation or two. Only the pathologically
hedonistic would not profess a readiness to limit current consumption in or-
der to leave something of value for his children, possibly for theirs. This im-
pulse varies from culture to culture, from society to society, from income
level to income level, indeed from individual to individual. It has been par-
ticularly strong in the United States, which might explain why economic
growth has been such an important element in American policy and
mystique. In any case, somewhere between profligacy and miserliness,
most men in most societies have long conducted their personal affairs with
the concept of legacy in mind. On a societal basis, however, at least until
the recent past, this concept has tended to be ignored; personal legacies
were one thing, collective legacies another.
Savings and the accumulation of capital are the usual means for funding
growth, especially in industrialized'societies. Savings, of course, are the
product of abstinence; by consuming less than their income, individuals or
communities can produce surpluses which, through the mechanisms and
institutions of modern societies, can be so invested as to enlarge the stock
of capital. Much of the present concern about growth and stewardship
stems from societal and individual confusion about the process of capital
accumulation and the consequences of its dissolution. If by capital we
mean, as the economists do, investable funds or plant or equipment, its ac-
cumulation provides the foundation for further economic growth and its ex-
penditure, deterioration or depreciation can be replaced. What troubles
many of those who are uneasy about the future is that economic develop-
ment involves invading the stock of nonrenewable resources and of starting
what may be the irreversible pollution of the environment. And while
miserliness in the expenditure of depletable resources is obviously a
masochistic and self-defeating policy for those now inhabiting the planet,
profligacy and carelessness by individuals, corporations, or societies as a
whole cheats future generations of their rightful legacy. Thus, collective
stewardship must take two forms: accumulation of capital through saving
and investment; restraint in the depletion of non-renewable resources and
in the pollution of the environment.
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There are distinguished scientists who make the point that technological
breakthroughs have expanded the resources horizons by several orders of
magnitude over the past century and that technology can be counted on to
do the same for generations to come. And there are eminent economists
who maintain that the market place and the price mechanism will provide
warnings of the dangerous curves and road blocks that lie ahead in suf-
ficient time so that individuals, corporations and whole societies can alter
their course.
It must be acknowledged that, to the extent that history over decades past
provides evidence, these views are persuasive. But, it must also be
recognized that scientists and economists must ply their trades within the
system—-a system which, in virtually every country of the world, has
become increasingly complex and constipated. In short, technological and
economic solutions, if they exist, may not be implementable or even per-
ceptible in time to help over the tricky decades immediately ahead. Relying
blindly on technological innovation or economic forces may be playing
roulette with the future.
Characteristics of Sustainable Growth
If growth, especially economic growth, is to be addressed as an issue of
public policy, particularly in terms of its relationship to such nonquantifiable
concepts as the Quality of Life and Stewardship, the matter is much more
subtle than the discussion, thus far, may indicate. To imply that the question
can be put in terms of growth or no growth is to oversimplify the central
dilemma. Few knowledgeable people would argue that in the industrialized
countries economic growth should (or even can) proceed for more than a
few more decades without regard to the profligate consumption of energy
and non-renewable resources or the despoilment of the environment. Nor
would many argue that a halt to economic growth would be a valid, univer-
sal solution to the present predicament. Indeed, it is implausible to suppose
that any single formula could be generally applicable, given the enormous
present disparities in income levels, cultural backgrounds, popular
aspirations, and population-resource ratios. Although growth obviously
means something very different to the already-developed as opposed to the
developing areas of the world, growth as opposed to stagnation is
ingrained in the political, social, economic, and psychological fabric of vir-
tually every westernizing society. Perhaps the most that can be said is that,
with prudent consumption of non-renewable resources and with careful
consideration for the environment, the moment of truth for economic growth
can be pushed back several generations during which time growing
wisdom, technological progress and institutional innovation may provide''
some solutions that are not now discernible.
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In thinking about the longer term, the concept of sustainable growth may
prove a more useful point of analytical departure. Sustainable growth is not
only that rate and kind of growth which the economic calculus and the
resource traffic will bear, but the rate and kind of growth a society, for a
variety of reasons, is anxious to achieve or able to tolerate. Thus,
sustainable growth should not be interpreted as "sustained" growth. In-
deed, some countries (Holland is an example) may have already passed
the point where sustained growth is sustainable. Sustainable growth, then,
would take the form of a conscious national or societal objective as well as
a process. It implies certain reasonably well-defined views about the long-
term future, both in terms of available resources and of needs and
aspiration. This, in turn, assumes that governments, as well as large cor-
porations have the willingness and capacity to engage in meaningful long-
range planning and that policy and decision-makers have adequate in-
formation, tools and techniques for gauging a society's aspirations and for
measuring the effectiveness of response.
The choice of the adjective "sustainable" to modify the noun "growth,"
was influenced by several considerations:
1. The inquiry should be projected into the future rather than simply con-
sist of an analytical snapshot of the present: Thus, in the light of what
we now know (or think we know), what forms and directions of
economic growth would best meet the requirements and aspirations of
our own generation and yet not place in jeopardy the requirements and
aspirations of the generation or two to follow?
2. The concepts of growth, quality of life and stewardship must be
represented in the matrix of the analysis and in any prescriptions that
might flow from it.
3. Advocacy of Zero Net Economic Growth, on the one hand, or of con-
tinued rapid economic growth, on the other, has no validity as an ab-
stract concept; to the extent that either may be valid depends on
detailed analysis of particular situations. In any case, neither position
can be wholly right or wholly wrong: present amenities are largely the
consequence of past growth, but the indefinite continuation of past
rates of growth will almost certainly be constrained by physical and in-
stitutional factors.
4. From this follows that the optimum growth that may apply to one
society cannot be generalized as a model for others, and that a
generalized model is likely to have limited applicability at best to any
particular society. If this be so, generalized models and the prescrip-
tions that flow from them are likely to be of little practical use to plan-
ners and policy-makers.
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5. Judgments with respect to the kinds, directions and rates of economic
growth appropriate to a particular society obviously must take account
of such quantifiable factors as mineral and agricultural resources, size
of population, levels and distribution of income, accessible, useable
land and availability of fresh water. But they must also be based on the
political, social and economic institutions and the cultural and religious
patterns which may stimulate, constrain or even shape the environment
in which economic growth takes place.
6. Account should be taken of the international tensions that may arise
and the adaptations and new institutional developments that may be
required to cope with resource and environmental constraints and dif-
ferential rates and directions of growth.
There are those who argue that physical constraints need not inhibit
economic growth over the long term. Confidence in the problem-solving
capabilities of technology and the regulating capabilities of the price
mechanism looms large in this bullish view of the future. There is much to
be said for such optimism; we need only look back over our own lifetimes
for impressive, corroborative evidence. Invention, innovation, and adap-
tation since the eighteenth century have eased past problems of population
and economic growth.
One can be justifiably uneasy about the future, however, without
derogating the accomplishments of the past. A gnawing question is whether
the pace of technological, economic and social change can continue to
keep up with the problems created by ever-more rapid growth and its ac-
companying environmental degradation, physical clutter and social tension.
There is no dearth of technical plans to save the cities, clean up the rivers,
dispose of solid waste. But, unhappily, there is also no dearth of public
lethargy, political inertia and institutional rigidity. Thus we continue to con-
front rotting, virtually bankrupt cities, congested highways, energy
shortages, and frequent "pollution alerts."
It seems clear that the cultural, political and social characteristics of a
society will play an important role in influencing the direction and shape of
its economic growth. Indeed, these factors may have a more important effect
in constraining or channelling growth than the decreasing availability and
increasing cost of non-renewable resources. But the unplanned movement
of growth into lines of least institutional resistance is not necessarily a for-
mula for achieving a pattern that is sustainable over the long term.
Who Pays for Change?
Economic growth has many costs. Included are the cost of investment
and foregone consumption, foregone leisure, the destruction of capital
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made obsolete by new products and technology and others. The costs of
growth are spread throughout the economy and Madden concludes that the
costs of change can be borne. Basically, growth can be financed from the
additional income derived from growth. Madden's discussion is presented
below.
The Change —Costs of Growth Are Widely Spread
Economic growth, as portrayed here, refers to the increase in the
capacity of the economic process to provide whatever values have the
highest priorities in a particular society: more goods, of whatever kind most
desired, or more services, or even more leisure (7). There is no one op-
timum rate of growth, since growth itself is not free of charge, but has costs
that rise disproportionately with its rate, and with its benefits. It is
meaningless to express economic growth as a percentage increase in
some index, since the composition of the growth increment is as important
as its size. In farm economies, growth in agricultural output may have the
most meaning. After the food and fiber criterion come durable goods. And
after the durable goods standard of growth, perhaps come Abraham
Maslow's higher human needs—of belonging, esteem, and self-'
realization —in education, in travel, in leisure, in helping others, in getting-
away-from-it-all.
Certainly, in a consumer-oriented society, we must balance the benefits
of growth against the costs of achieving various growth rates, to establish at
a given time a desired rate of growth, not necessarily the maximum rate.
Economic growth has real resource costs: the values foregone in acquiring
it. In the pursuit of balanced growth, we must not lose sight of other goals,
such as individual freedom, the flexibility of private enterprise and market
responsiveness, or the principle of limiting the role of government.
As explained earlier, in an enterprise economy dominated by markets,
the change-costs of economic growth are widely spread throughout the
economy. Even at times of nearly full employment, some areas or industries
have high jobless rates, and even in prosperity, some regions and in-
dustries and occupations are under-paid. However, the period since World
War II has seen an epic migration or rural blacks to urban areas inside and
outside the South, with resulting gains in real income and some (though not
enough) gap-closing as between median income of white and non-white
families.
Measured by expectations, the change-costs of growth may appear inor-
dinately high. However, measured by performance in raising real incomes,
by mobility patterns of large groups, by international comparisons, and by
standards of consumption, it is difficult to resist the conclusion that the
change-costs of growth have been widely distributed in the United States.
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Growth Has Economic Costs
At any one time, the rate of growth depends largely in a complex in-
dustrial economy on the share of resources diverted from current con-
sumption for investment purposes. Investment has to be broadly interpreted
to include any economic activity which increases the total supply of produc-
tive resources or improves their quality. Productive resources of course in-
clude managerial and technical as well as other labor skills and supplies,
so that investment includes education and research as much as power
plants and machine tools.
Two ways are available to increase the rate of growth: raising the share of
current income allocated to investment, and increasing current income it-
self. To increase current income, we must use existing resources of capital,
natural resources, and labor more intensively. More intensive use of human
skills means the sacrifice of leisure. To the extent that increased labor use
is a reduction of joblessness, it is costless in all but the drain on natural
resources and the environment. It is costless, that is, in foregone labor ser-
vices. Leisure, when freely chosen, is a form of income. Idleness, on the
other hand, is the deprivation of income; it is involuntary, not a matter of
choice, yields no income, and has no economic uses.
If increased leisure is a human goal, in other words, is one of the goods
and services for which we work, then it has a value and a cost. The value,
measured by the cost, is the foregone growth. Thus, it is hard to make com-
parisons; as between a five per cent growth rate and a three per cent growth
rate, who can say which is more desirable? It is not even possible validly to
hold that in all countries and at all times, growth as measured by national in-
come statistics is better than no growth. National income statistics omit the
value of leisure, either as income to people or as the contribution it may
make to the total supply of goods and services. The loss of leisure values in
order to achieve more rapid growth has to be counted among the costs of
growth. In short, growth costs leisure.
Growth not only costs leisure, it also costs consumption. To speed up
growth, and so to speed up gains in per capital income, takes investment;
and comsumption has to be given up in order to invest more. Saving and in-
vestment are made possible through abstinence and work. By working
more, and thus getting more production and income, both more saving and
investment become possible. In short, the costs of growth are the leisure
and consumption given up to get it. Presumably, these are given upJn the
present to get more of them in the future.
Another cost of growth, borne by owners and, to some extent, by
managers, is the cost of creative destruction of capital. New technology,
plants, products, and services may render existing capital obsolete, and
thus impose costs in the form of lower capital values on the owners of
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productive resources. This is true of capital equipment, from which there is
in effect an involuntary disinvestment by owners (although this disinvest-
ment is voluntary so far as society is concerned). Similarly, human beings
sustain a loss in "human capital" when their knowledge and skills become
'•obsolete because of new knowledge and skills or because they are sup-
planted by capital equipment. Localities and broader geographical regions
may suffer substantially the same costs in that their "capital," their
specialized contributions, is rendered obsolete, supplanted by more
productive resources elsewhere. These costs are unavoidable in a dynamic
society. They could he held to a minimum in a static society, if it were
possible in the face,of presently available knowledge already extant but not
used, to maintaJn one. But given the pressure of existing, unusued
knowledge on existing institutions, it is doubtful that the social organism
could avoid the requirement of change, either advance or retrogression.
Many displaced resources and workers can be reabsorbed in the
economy, but only by incurring the costs of shifting from one use or place to
another. Of course, in a dynamic market economy, these shifts are going on
all the time. Mobility costs are incurred in changing jobs, in changing oc-
cupations, in moving from one area to another. However, corresponding to
these mobility costs are mobility benefits. In general, the costs are borne by
.owners of resources, but typically they are shared at large by society
through the tax structure, which provides some offsets both for capital and
labor costs. A sharing of displacement costs also is accomplished through
various private and government programs, such as company-provided
moving costs, terminal pay, retraining programs and government-provided
manpower programs.
The extent to which private corporations today are charged for costs
borne by business for social purposes is not well known, but it is already
substantial. The costs referred to are costs not directly related to production
of output. They include: (1) Federal corporate income taxes, (2) state and
local corporate income taxes, (3) property taxes, (4) sales and gross
receipts taxes, (5) miscellaneous state and local taxes, (6) occupational
safety and health costs, (7) pollution abatement costs, (8) social security
costs, (9) unemployment and workmen's compensation costs, (10) health
insurance costs, (11) private pension costs, (12) group life insurance costs,
(13) temporary disability costs. This list is not inclusive, but these costs
alone probably amount to a substantial share of gross corporate product,
perhaps one-sixth or even one-fifth.
It should be obvious that, up to now, benefits have exceeded costs of
growth, as measured by rapidly growing population and living at un-
precedentedly higher standards than ever before, both here and elsewhere
in the world. The issue of the future is how to maintain the increase in the
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capacity of the economic process to provide whatever values have the
highest priorities in the particular society, economic growth, while slowing
down the rate of growth in waste and pollution. Economic growth, as
defined here, is required both (1) to attain new values of high priority and
(2) to slow down the rise of waste and pollution.
The Economic Costs of Growth Can Be Borne
How to pay for the costs of change is the source of most discussion and
criticism of growth. This is a highly important question because how we
decide it will have significant and long-lasting effects on the allocation of
resources, on the efficiency of their use both in productivity and in entropic
terms, and therefore on the ultimate satisfactions derived from the economic
system. Valid economic calculations, relating benefits to costs, and thus
setting values, is the sine qua non of an effectively functioning economic
system.
The essential task of economic calculation is performed through the
market system. The market system prices both output and input, Le.,
productive resources of capital, labor, and natural resources. The system
provides a continuous feedback of the cost-benefit relationships. In the
market, the costs of change and growth are being paid all the time, in diz-
zying array. For example, the 21 million United States citizens 65 years and
older have adjusted to the telephone, radio, television, automobiles,
propeller-driven airplane, jet plane, and the like. They have adjusted to
massive shifts in population that since 1910 has seen the Industrial
Crescent, from the New England mill towns through the states bordering the
Great Lakes to west of Chicago lose relative shares of prople and jobs to
newer regions. They have adjusted to equally massive changes in taste,
fashion, and behavior norms.
Throughout this period of massive change both the political and
economic systems have remained largely intact, but with a continuing trend
towards an increased role for government in the society and a trend toward
public and private provision of various forms of indemnity payments against
industrial risks of injury, illness, and old age. Poverty, although its official
definition has been redefined higher several times, has declined from
perhaps two-thirds to under one-eighth of the population.
As early as 1963, the business community had concluded, as mentioned
earlier, that "ours are now largely the problems of wealth and success," that
"the extremes of poverty, if not entirely eliminated, are no longer economic,
but political and social problems." The business group implicitly
acknowledges in this statement the principle that, in a balanced way, the
costs associated with growth should be financed from the increment of in-
come derived from growth —the growth dividend. The conclusion thus ap-
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pears strongly persuasive that the economic costs of growth and change
can be borne in our society. The issue remains that of how to assess these
costs.
Implementing Change
In general, the costs of change should be levied consistent with the
flexibility and responsiveness of the market system. That the system is
responsive to new demands placed on it is illustrated by the "social
responsibility1' issue in business. The idea that corporate business respon-
sibilities should encompass social issues was fairly novel in 1966, but by
1973 was widely accepted by major business and banking leaders (8). As
Donald A. McNaughton, Chairman of Prudential, has pointed out, in the
19th century the corporation concentrated on economic performance, and
in doing so, invented new measurement systems for evaluating economic
performance. Today, given the public demand for quality of life, the cor-
poration is called on to develop new social measurement systems.
Madden points out that business needs incentives to implement social
responsibility. Profitizing social output or finding ways to develop social
demands into new markets are suggested as possible incentives. Govern-
ment policies which could provide incentive are also presented. He also
discusses the need for methods of measuring social output so that it can be
properly, managed and directed, Corporate Social Audits are suggested as
a measurement device and a typical Social Audit is outlined.
The Profit Motive and Other Incentives
The problem facing the corporation is how to meet the various demands
for "socializing" its output when its operations are based on satisfying
private demands. The corporation has always had a responsibility to
society, derived from its franchise from the state. In the nineteenth century,
its major goal was private production of material goods and services, to
raise material living standards. Today's emphasis on social responsibility
makes of the corporation a social as well as an economic organization,
willly nilly, since corporations succeed by producing the values people
want Whether social-and-economic, or merely economic-as-in-the-past, the
corporation is motivated and disciplined by the market mechanism and the
profit motive in a competitive economy.
To meet new demands, as we have seen, the corporation is re-examining
cost concepts. It is also examining possibilities of turning social demands
into new markets. This requires market research to find which of the new
demands a given corporation could meet, what it would cost, how it could
respond. Since social responsibilities are "layered," the corporation has to
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anticipate (1) which are legal requirements, (2) which adcrrtional respon-
sibilities the public expects, (3) which are newly emerging social demands,
and (4) which emerging demands prompt an activist role for business.
Business has to "profitize" corporate social performance, A key aspect of
the current corporate "social responsibility" movement is the lack of
balance between the business resources available and the new social com-
mitments of the individual business firm. The before-tax residual after
private costs average less than 10 per cent of sales. For almost all cor-
porations the current demands on this residual, beginning with taxes, are
great. Federal income taxes took 44.7 per cent of the profit residual in
1971, for example. Since fulfilling such social responsibilities as helping to
reduce pollution are costly, the cost must be borne somewhere else; Andr
to the extent that environmental control facilities require real resources for
their production, producing them draws off those resources from other
uses. This point was underscored at the UN-sponsored Stockholm Con-
ference in June 1972 where the under-developed countries, as well as the
poor in the industralized countries, interpreted improving the quality of life
as increasing their material consumption.
Since business cannot be expected to perform its proper role of ef-
fectively using resources in production without a profit incentive, business
must have a clear reading not only of consumer preferences but also of the
new ground rules of government in meeting these demands. Government
has to set guidelines that allow business to privatize social costs; otherwise
corporations follow their individual interests rather than the social interest in
the absence of guidelines. To the extent, then, that government sets the
rules to conform to social costs of private production, corporations respond
consistently with consumer preference.
Traditional maximizing of profits is already too narrow, if it refuses to con-
cern itself with social and ecological problems, for today's large; high-
visibility corporations. Few alternatives are left: (1) the "stick" of legal
requirements, (2) the "carrot" of government contracts or subsidies or (3)
direct allocation. To make the "carrot" approach work, government, in prin-
ciple, has to subsidize enough to make rates of return competitive with
other uses. But the risk factor can be high in meeting new social respon-
sibilities, depending on consumer preference. Whether Congress would in-
demnify all the extra risk is not so clear judging from recent experience of
defense contractors and their ownership shares in the market
Direct allocation could take various forms. One business leader has
argued for establishing "minimal profit" subsidiaries to perform social serv-
ices. However, this solution is peripheral to the basic need for a change in
the strategy of economic development, to increase output (value) but slow
down the growth of waste and pollution. It should be clear by now that such
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a new strategy is far more pervasive in its influence over the entire range of
corporate activity. Direct allocation could take a compulsory form. A law
could require firms over a certain size to invest a specified percentage of
their assets to produce social output. Already, foundations are required to
disburse annually a given percentage of their assets in order to retain their
favorable tax status. One result might be more corporate philanthropy
(currently tax deductible, within limits). But here again, does this approach
go to the heart of the corporate role in society?
No doubt, in any event the corporate-business relation is in for change,
as the distinction blurs between production of private and public goods.
Many demands on corporations for more social responsibility are being
made by those who spearhead the corporate responsibilities movement: (1)
tough new regulation, (2) breakup of large corporations, (3) federal charters
for all corporations, (4) public directors for firms over a given size, (5)
publicly elected directors, (6) shareholder rights enlarged to raise social
issues, (7) due process rights for corporate employees who "blow the
whistle" on corporate practices, (8) personal criminal accountability of cor-
porate officials for some public offenses, such as pollution, (9) suspension
of advertising for convicted fraudulent advertisers, (10) a concept of "social
bankruptcy" for companies whose social costs exceed its private and social
benefits, (11) public examination of corporate tax returns, (12) required
recycling, (13) active manpower policies required for minorities, (14)
required participation in solving urban problems, (15) required increase in
voluntary contributions.
How can business operate as an instrument of public policy? One way is
through government standards of minimum performance, with penalties for
failure to meet them. Another is through business-government consortia A
third is through private production of public goods. The third approach
would require a radical change in national economic policy. The suggestion
is that the market-oriented government-business cooperation would be for
government to invent public goods on the demand side (i.e., including the
creation of a market-type demand), and for business to compete in in-
vesting and promoting public goods on the supply side. Could corporations
market new garbage disposal systems, new and economical education TV
programs, systems for delivering health care, systems for setting up public
parks, systems for renovation of slum housing, or the like?
Corporate Social Aduits to Measure Social Output
The corporate "social audit" or "social accounting" device represents
the beginning of a new measurement system, by which corporations can
examine what they are doing and gauge their performance. The social audit
is intended as a tool to enable a corporation (1) to review its performance
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against accepted social objectives, (2) determine the dollar value of its
commitment, (3) evaluate to the extent possible the "social impact" of
management decisions, and (4) determine how much corporate social in-
volvement is in the self interest of the corporation. Professor Raymond A.
Bauer of the Harvard Graduate School of Business, a leader in the search
for a workable social audit, has concluded that the first three of the tour
steps of the audit set down above are now possible, but that the fourth'will
be extremely difficult accomplish.
Although formal social audits have not yet been devised, some large cor-
porations today are keeping track informally of their own social per-
formance. About 60 per cent of the top 500 corporations included an ac-
count of some aspects of their social performance in their 1972 annual
reports, up from 35 per cent in 1971.
A typical social audit might cover such aspects of corporate operations
as: (1), Employee Relations, (2) Minority Enterprise Development, (3) En-
vironmental Protection, (4) Contributions, (5) Community Involvement, (6)
Consumer Affairs and (7) Organizational Reevaluation.
To decide how far to go in filling any gaps in its performance, the cor-
poration has to make some kind of cost/benefit analysis, but social
benefits are difficult to quantify. Indeed, a calculus of quality
will be needed to evaluate benefits, and it may turn out that polling tech-
niques, as Raymond Bauer suggests, are as valid measures as can be
developed. The business firm's effort to "internalize" costs of social im-
provement programs are, in effect, efforts to broaden the concept of what
once were largely private costs (excluding taxes). Private costs can be
reduced per unit of output. But environmental costs of business engaged in
physical production rise per unit of output, since waste and pollution are an
exponential function of output. Thus, the market mechanism will inhibit
production of physical commodities whose environmental costs are in-
ternalized. It will do so by raising the relative price of such physical com-
modities relative to substitutes, thus enforcing more stringent economy in
their use and stimulating ways of "innovating around" them in consumer
uses. From the viewpoint of social welfare, the relative rise in price of
physical products heavy in their environmental drain is desirable. However,
consumers have to strike an equilibrium price that balances off their
demand for the product against its fuller costing.
But social benefits are even more difficult to measure. Costs are at least
represented by outlays. As a bizarre example, infant mortality in the U.S. is
higher than in Europe. However, there are suggestions this results from
keeping weight gain down for pregnant women in the U.S. compared to
European practices. It would be easy to infer, without knowledge of this
possibility, that the social benefit lay elsewhere, perhaps in reform of the
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U.S. health care system, when all that would be needed is a change in pre-
natal care of easy accomplishment. Which of a given set of social benefits
should be pursued and to what extent—i.e., how much should it be pur-
sued —before the added social benefit of competing uses comes to ex-
ceed the declining added benefit of pursuing the social benefit? In other
words, since society's resources are scarce, relative to all the desirable
uses for them, as greater amounts of resources are devoted to environ-
mental protection, the added social benefit of such spending will fall and
the added social cost will rise, causing the added benefit and the added
cost to equalize at some spending level. That is to say, even if they are com-
pletely known, our social desires can no more be met in total than our
private desires.
Implications For Economic Policy
The implications of a global view for economic policy are many and are
just emerging into national consciousness. The need for more com-
prehensive long-range goals and planning which include a wider range of
social issues and directly address means of emproving the quality of life is
generally recognized.
Attributes of Successful Planning
Commenting on societal goals, Cooper discusses the need for long-
range planning. He believes that there is general agreement about what the
goals of society should be. However, government and business goal-
setting have been ineffective because the process has been isolated from
the planning process. He concludes that planning should be indicative,
rather than directive and should be integrative in that it should include
physical and social factors as well as economic factors. He briefly
discusses the possibility of organizing a national planning staff and sum-
marizes desirable features of such a staff.
Cooper says that, to be something more, and more useful, than a set of
lofty platitudes, societal goals must be thoughtfully defined and periodically
reviewed. Collective introspection precedent to the development of goals is
rare in our own society, and indeed in most others. To the extent national or
institutional goals are formulated, they tend to take the form of short-term,
specific, quantiatively-expressed performance targets. As a consequence,
"progress" or "growth" has tended to be characterized, over the longer
term, by lurches and zig-zagging toward unarticulated or viscerally-
determined objectives. But one senses that if societal yearnings could be
articulated in terms of desired goals, the short-term targets of government
agencies, corporations and labor unions might turn out to be irrelevant if not
altogether wrong.
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Whatever the approach used, there seems to be fairly wide agreement on
the priority of objectives. The problem arises when one moves from goal-
setting to implementation. A Brookings discussion of the 1973 Federal
Budget puts the point well: "There is widespread consensus ... that in-
creasing equality of opportunity, improving the quality of public services,
and resucing the environment are, and should be, important concerns of the
federal government. There is far less consensus, however, on how these
objectives should be accomplished or how success should be identified
and measured" (9).
An Administration official also alluded to the gap between aspirations
and implementation in testimony to Congress: "It is the conviction of this
Administration that public policies for balanced and orderly growth will be
more effective than the mechanisms through which they are shaped and
carried out." (10).
The ambitious efforts at national goal-setting over the past decade turned
out to have little practical significance because they were removed from the
planning process. Goal setting is but a necessary prelude to the major task
of laying out the routes which will permit policy makers to have a high
degree of confidence that the goals can be achieved. Thus if growth is to
serve identified ends and if it is to proceed in cognizance of resource
availabilities, environmental considerations and societal needs and
aspirations, that is, if growth is to be economically and socially sustainable,
planning by governments and large quasi-public and private institutions is
an essential element for success.
"Policy planning", whether undertaken in great departments of the
Executive Branch of government or in large corporations has not been
distinguished by stunning success. There are many reasons for this which
may have little to do with the validity of the planning process, itself. The
most expeditious road to career advancement, for example, is through
operating rather than planning elements of an organization; few Cabinet
members or corporation presidents are plucked from the ranks of planning
staffs. Few Cabinet members or corporation presidents tend to pay much
more than lip-service to the results of elaborate policy planning studies.
But there is more to the story than simply the bureaucratic handicaps or
top-side neglect under which planners typically ply their trade. There are
some fundamental disabilities of methodology that inhibit the use of the
planning process as a managerial tool. Progress is being made in develop-
ing more effective planning techniques, but for many years ahead, at least,
we will have to rely on the blunt instruments at hand. This means that em-
phasis must be placed on indicative rather than directive planning, on iden-
tifying and then analyzing alternative courses of action, rather than, with
arrogance unbecoming the start of the art, laying down policy prescriptions.
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The analysis of policy alternatives need not be the only responsibility or
contribution of planners to the process of translating goals into programs.
Along the analytical path critical decision points can be identified, flagged
and gamed; "if it is decided to do A, consequences W and X will follow; if
Course B is selected, consequences Y and Z will have to be anticipated."
Recognizing, then, that by "planning" we are talking about indicative
planning, a policy of sustained growth calls for long-term planning un-
dertaken at a high enough echelon to permit direct access to senior
decision makers. Such a planning process would involve considerations
longer than the annual budget cycle, longer than the four year terms of
Presidents or coporate executives. It goes well beyond projecting produc-
tion schedules or extrapolating sales. The process, in short, involves a
scale of time measured in decades rather than years. This kind of planning
is not being done in the United States, either by government agencies or in
the private sector.
Planning for sustainable growth must also be integrative in the sense that
it reflects physical and social as well as economic considerations. Basic to
this broad and humanistic approach is a conversion by both planners and
policy-makers from worship of the false god of Gross National Product to
other, or at least modified, measures of progress. In short, a society must be
able to judge how effectively it is performing as well as how much it is
producing.
No planning function, whether in or out of government, can be effective
unless rt is meshed closely with the decision-making process and decision-
makers, themselves. Nor can effective planning be done unless planners
are able to call on the resources of their colleagues in the operating and
research elements of their organizations. The "boys-in-the-back-room" and
"the ivory tower" syndromes thus fall far short of describing the nature of
the planning process envisaged here —within either the national govern-
ment or large corporations.
Some governments have already taken steps to develop a long term plan-
ning function. In France, the Netherlands and Japan, for exampJe, small,
multf-disciplinary staffs of planners are attached to the Offices of the Prime
Ministers (11). In each case the staffs endeavor to integrate economic,
technological and social planning and, in each case, too, the planning
period extends well into the 1980's (12).
It would be beyond the scope of this paper and beyond the frontiers of
current thinking to try, at this point, to define the precise charter, form, and
organization structure of a national planning staff concerned with
sustainable growth. But there are a few points worth noting. We have
"already emphasized the need for a long-term frame of reference, the need
to cut across intellectual disciplines and departmental areas of respon-
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sibility and the need for planners to operate from a real-world perspective.
The basic approach, as we have observed, should be indicative rather than
prescriptive, both in terms of sharpening the choices rather than spelling
out specific goals and of analyzing alternative policy options rather than
serving up a set of concrete recommendations. A national planning staff
should also engage in, or have direct access to, the assessment of the
long-range social, environmental and economic effects of the applications
of new high-technology. Finally, one would like to think that a national plan-
ning staff would act and react substantively with the long-range planning
going on in government departments, other governments, the large national
and multi-national corporations, and private research organizations.
Features off a Government —Business Growth Policy
Madden states that action consistent with the new concepts of economics
and the global view and traditional policy and economics is needed to
provide a humane world in which mankind can achieve short-range goals
consistent with long-range survival and also achieve a rising quality of life.
People's perceptions must be adapted to new possibilities of wealth
creation which include not only physical goods but new social and
economic values. New knowledge of the physical and social sciences must
be applied move intensively and organized more effectively. Government
and business must pay more attention to the changing values of people.
The new economic growth strategy for business means developing a func-
tional, social performance-oriented mode of marketing. He suggests the
following as principal elements required for a comprehensive government-
business growth policy to provide these features.
It might be desirable for government to create new policy in support of
the values of environmental enhancement, research in science, the com-
munication of science, energy, social measurement and analysis,
education, and economic policy.
In all these areas —since all are related to concern with the environ-
ment —major tasks of policy re-examination consistent with the new world
view are urgently needed. It is not so much a question of large expenditures
as it is the development of new rules of the game that reflect new un-
derstanding of the growth process of the future.
The proposal bristles with implications that cannot all be drawn out here.
More progress is needed now in monitoring world weather, world environ-
ment, study of farm practices, and a host of related .topics, looking towards
world-wide management of the world environmental balance. Such basic in-
vestment, well-financed, will generate unpredictable new sources of wealth,
both public and private. It should be a goal to create world-wide,
cooperative environmental measurement and management.
The time is at hand to re-think science and technology policy, not in
relation mainly to experiments in utilization, but in efforts to unify science, to
communicate it widely, to apply methods, not technology, in a broad sweep
to social affairs. Multi-media scientific education —that is, superb and en-
tertaining education —needs financing more, far more, than yet another
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fragmented and unrelated scholastic exercise in scientific specialization.
Dartmouth president John Kemeny's suggested national, computer-based
reference library should be financed now. At the expense of some old or in
effective government program.
Instead of more government education aid to existing universities, some
small funding might be provided to a corporation, balanced in make-up,
which saw itself as a nation-wide, open, TV university, modelled after the
British Open University. Courses should not be allowed that are not
multimedia productions.
At some point soon, U.S. energy policy will have to face up to the im-
plications that lie in the plentiful supply of hydrogen, the fact that a few day's
supply of energy from the sun equals all the stored energy on earth, and the
present positive feed-back between the rise in output and the rise in energy
use. Abstractly, the issue would seem to be more GNP (or human value)
with less expenditure, but more useful expenditure, of energy. At least,
such an inference appears to follow from the thesis presented by Limits To
Growth.
Social measurement and analysis now languishes partly because of lack
of fresh or original study of U.S. statistical systems, now mainly two-
dimensional even in economics, where measures of wealth are sadly
lacking. Fresh initiatives in statistical design suited to computers, aimed at
systems viewpoints, holistically conceived, are lacking. Meanwhile, fears of
"data banks" divert interest and confuse purposes, and existing systems of
statistics receive patchwork attention.
Education is on the verge of an explosion and of large cost reduction
through a radical change in the organization of instruction brought on by
technology. How is it that Western Civilization's great artists were financed
to communicate the symbolism of Biblical creation to generations, while
only Time-Life Science books have dared to portray the creation of the
universe in pictures? The pursuit of knowledge is corrupted by comparison
to the marvels of fused art-and-knowledge creations lying in every cranny of
the society, to become entertainment, whether as drama or as epic
narrative, or whatever, combined with education.
Education is on the verge of an explosion also through informal intimacy
of discourse by ad hoc groups springing up everywhere, bored by the for-
mal trappings of instruction, but effective in their own fields and yearning for
personal conversation, involvement, enterprise, and creation. These are
people at home in a nation that is only five hours wide and three hours long;
people who are impatient with papers and footnotes, appalled by our
society's lack of coherence and coordination, but determined to realize our
potentials.
225
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economic policy stands at a similar threshold, ready for intelligent
economic similation and modeling, development of policy analysis, testing
of policy changes by simulation and reform of institutions.
All these changes implicit in the new world view represent a new initiative
for adaptation of our culture that are breathtaking, but of course require,
above all, a new orientation of thought in policy making far more than
massive investment in technology. The task lying before our society is that
of re-organizing thought processes, images, language, and perception far
more than the creation of programs or "solutions" to "social problems."
Madden outlines some specific elements of economic policy for govern-
ment and business which he believes should be implemented.
1. Creation of Social Markets. Government should set new priorities to
create social markets for private business operation by massive aban-
donment of our dated and ineffective social welfare and industry—subsidy
programs. The missing link in revenue sharing is the creation of social
markets for business corporations.
2. Urban Policy. Government could initiate broad measures to achieve
governance of urban regions, such as a national network combining urban-
observatory development banks with a federal-private development bank at
the center, in order to analyze and finance urban innovation.
The missing link in revenue sharing is access to knowledge. As men-
tioned above, the bringing to bear on economic processes of more useful
knowledge is a cultural blockbuster of an idea, bristling with design im-
plications. Even at risk of being tiresome, we don't know anything, as a
people, about what is happening in our urban regions. Most of us don't
even know we live in urban regions, except intuitively, since we go to great
lengths, using phrases like "urban," "rural," "rural-nonfarm," and "central-
city", "suburb," and the like, to obscure our perceptions. How can we think
clearly about governing urban regions, not knowing we live in them? We
don't even have visual TV or newspaper symbols, like stylized maps, to
create any unity of feeling among people in these regions. They have to
apologize for saying they live in "the New York area" when they really live
in, say, Summit, New Jersey. And certainly we have no visual system of
orienting people easily to parts of a metropolitan area. All the buses go to
some unknown stopping point like "Kings Park" or "Floating Hill," the
name of a real estate development.
At the next level of confusion, we lack any regular means of com-
munication about what is happening in our urban regions. Our newscasters
and journalists appear never to have thought of urban regions, except for
the weather forecaster. Planning board decisions come after murder, rape,
dope, police line-ups, and sports in importance. It is not easy for the res
publica —the public thing —to escape from such a melange with anything
much intact.
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But still another level exists, where patterns and configurations of change
move with logic, order, and even beauty across the urban scene, as well as
patterns filled with ominous foreboding. Nobody ever hears about these ex-
cept specialists of one sort or another, who seldom talk together.
The idea of bringing useful knowledge to bear in public understanding of
what is happening in cities has obviously got a far, far lower priority of value
than weather forecasting. If you think about it, weather forecasting is
organized, scientific observation, arranged in a system, employing
specialists financed both by government and business, to give us
knowledge about the weather. What is the analogy for urban change and
development? The idea seems to escape, somehow, through the cracks of
confusion in our ability to imagine.
3. Environmentally—Sensitive Economic Policy. Government would re-
structure economic policy consistent with environmental and policy science
insights, would revise incentives in order to stimulate the creation of en-
tropy-retarding new wealth, and would remove restrictions to competition
that are widespread in law and regulation.
Here again, the proposal is intended to convey implications of the in-
tellectual framework portrayed throughout the above. The task is an enor-
mous exercise in fresh thinking. One example illustrates this point, perhaps
apocryphally. A house in Phoenix, having a 20-foot picture window facing
the sun, keeps a 20-foot Venetian blind closed except at night. But, it is so
hard to raise, the owner installs a motor. The appraiser increases the value
of the house $1,000 because of the blind and the motor. Another house,
with ferns and an overhanging eave and high ceilings is valued less —it
has no motor and perhaps no Venetian blind.
4. Recommendations for New Business Policy
a. Re-organize marketing to create holistic, performance-oriented sup-
plies of services.
b. Re-define balance sheet concepts.
c. Engineer holistic product systems to achieve product miniaturization,
zero defect reliability, greater durability.
d. Create new marketing concepts of private production of public goods.
c. Exploit marketing opportunities in "new health"—invisible
wealth —of holistic community planning, beauty, education, cultural growth,
and health improvement.
f. Create new communications and advertising strategy consistent with
knowledge as a form of wealth.
g. Create new management attuned to new wealth.
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NOTES FOR CHAPTER 6
1. Schumpter, J.S., "Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy", 3rd edition,
New York, Harper and Bros., 1950, Chapter VII.
2. Quoted in Introduction to The "Regulated Consumer," by Mary Bennett
Peterson Nash Publishing Company, Los Angeles, 1971.
3. Meadows, et al, "The Limits to Growth", A Potomac Associates Book,
New York, Universe Books, 1972.
4. Drucker, P., "Landmarks of Tomorrow," New York, Harper and Row,
1959.
5. Georgescu-Roeger, N., "The Entropy Law and the Economic Process",
Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971.
6. See "Social Measurement", American Institute of Certified Public Ac-
countants, New York, 1972.
7. See "The Promise of Growth", Chamber of Commerce of the United
States, Washington, D.C., 1963.
8. See "The Corporation in Transition," Chamber of Commerce of the
United States, Washington, D.C., 1973.
9. Setting National Priorites—1973 Budget", Charles Schultze, Ed.,
Brookings Institution, 1972.
10. "National Growth Policy", Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Housing of the Committee on Banking and Currency, house of
Representatives, 92nd Congress, June 6 and 7, 1972—Part I.
11. In France, The Commissariat General du Plan, in the Netherlands, the
Central Planning Office, in Japan, The Director-General for Economic
Planning.
12. A good example of the long-term, wide-ranging, inter-disciplinary
nature of French planning is "1935. La France Face au Choc du
Futur," Commissariat General du Plan, Librairie Arnaud Colin, Paris,
1972. Foreword.
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APPENDIX
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.Appendix
Following the successful completion of the QOL symposium in August of
1972, ESD was approached by one of the invited attendees—Anton Sch-
malz, then engaged as a general consultant on the Federal Assistance
Review Program of the Office of Management and Budget—who suggested
ESD should follow up on the Airlie QOL symposium with mini-regional ver-
sions throughout the country. After discussing areas of mutual interest, ESD
hired Mr. Schmalz as a staff consultant to pursue the alternative futures
aspects of the intended environmental issues and social sciences book for
the Division. As explained elsewhere, the original intent was to institute a
dialogue between government officials and invited participants.
The original symposium outline, as developed by Anton Schmalz with
Peter House, Philip Patterson, Martin Redding and John Gerba of the ESD
staff, is reproduced on the following pages. The outline includes topics
assigned to the contributing authors and questions which each author was
asked to address within his or her research theme.
Research Symposium
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
In keeping with the policy of the Office of Research and Monitoring to
encourage research in all areas relevant to the charter of this Agency, the
Environmental Studies Division plans to conduct a research symposium ad-
dressing "Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality." The symposium
will be held in Room 1112, Building 2, Crystal Mall, Arlington, Virginia,
March 7 and 8, 1973.
Symposium sessions will explore alternative future effects on the en-
vironment of the way in which three pivotal clusters of issues are handled in
the immediate future. The issue clusters are:
I.The nature of the environmental crisis.
2. Zero population growth and environmental quality.
3. Implications of alternative growth policies on environmental quality.
The purpose of the symposium is to pursue a comprehensive approach
for assessing future research needs and priorities and to delineate con-
siderations for policy and program planning in each of the issue categories.
A detailed explanation and outline of the symposium is enclosed.
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Research Symposium of the
Environmental Studies Division
Focusing on
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
March 7 and 8, 1973
Room 1112, Building 2
Crystal Mall
Arlington, Virginia
Environmental Quality is both an immediate and a long-term issue with
many interdependent options, benefits, and risks. The most relevant
policies and programs will derive from a periodic reassessment of the im-
plications of evolving issues on environmental quality. In this spirit the
proposed symposium is intended to maximize the benefits from both new
knowledge and long experience.
The Environmental Studies Division, Office of Research and
Monitoring, of the Environmental Protection Agency plans to bring diverse
viewpoints together in a research symposium devoted to a reassessment of
three major issue areas conditioning environmental quality.
The EPA research symposium is intended to provide a current focus on
comprehensive identification of options and alternative approaches to the
three issue areas as they relate to environmental quality.
An average of six participants will be commissioned to prepare papers
in each subject area. The symposium will be interdisciplinary to provide for
the fullest exposure and interaction of viewpoints. Participants will attend all
three sessions to ensure maximum involvement in, and exposure to, the
three areas considered at the symposium. Papers will be published and
distributed nationally. A discussion session of the symposium will be
devoted to each of the three issue areas. These three areas are:
1. The Nature of the Environmental Crisis
Diverse views exist regarding the possibility of an imbalance between
human institutions and the ecology of the biosphere. General societal sup-
port of an ethic to care for the environment may be substantially affected by
perceptions of the reality and urgency of a crisis. What are the implications
for environmental quality?
2. Zero Population Growth and Environmental Quality
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ZPG has been proposed as a national and world goal. Current U.S.
statistics indicate ZPG fertility rates. What are the implications for en-
vironmental quality?
3. Implications of Alternative Growth Policies
Growth, equilibrium, dispersion of population and industry, and the
elimination of pollution all have their costs. The implications of growth in
terms of dollars, as well as in terms of environmental quality, social costs
and the overall quality of life, need continuous evaluation.
Providing for environmental quality requires a comprehensive, in-
terdisciplinary and long-range approach on the part of people at all levels of
government and throughout the private sector.
Principal objectives of the EPA Research Symposium are to delineate:
(1) the issues; (2) feasible approaches and incentives for dealing with them;
(3) research needed and rationales for prioritizing these needs; and (4)
specific attitudes, costs, and other considerations for implementing
changes in government and private sector institutions. These con-
siderations will be presented from the point of view of decision-makers in-
volved in policy formulation.
At a minimum, the papers and discussions in each of the three issue
areas will address the immediate and long-term considerations in seven
categories of questions for each issue:
1. Is there really a problem? What is it? Who says? Why? Have the
problem and associated issues been overstated or underestimated?
2. How can we best distinguish between cause and effect?
3. What are the principal factors conditioning solutions to the problem in
terms of technical, economic, and social behavior?
4. What can and/or should be done to ensure environmentally sensitive
comprehensive planning and decision making? What incentives,
regulations or other policies can help:
a political officials;
b. managers and staffs at all levels of government;
c. managers and staffs in specific institutions, industries
and/or geographic regions; and
d. segments of the general public?
5. What are the considerations for implementing proposed new policies?
What are some feasible strategies?
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6. Is there any urgency? What are the realistic time considerations for im-
plementing proposed policies?
7. Who should participate i.n the planning, implementation, and
monitoring or evaluation phases of the policy process? Who can or
should be responsible?
Environmental issues are inextricably involved with individual or group
perceptions of needs, frustrations, satisfactions, etc. These perceptions
condition the concepts of relative priorities and feasibility as well as the
credibility of policies^ and, therefore, the degree of support or cooperation
forthcoming.
An outline, of the three issue-oriented sessions follows. In addition to a
consideration of the seven categories of questions discussed above, each
participant will address the representative questions listed for the session
in which he is a principal.
Session I
EPA Research Symposium
Focused on
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
The Nature of the Environmental Crisis
A. Is there an environmental crisis?
1. What are its characteristics?
a. Immediate.
b. Long-term.
2. New Perspectives on balancing human ecology and the ecology of the
biosphere.
3. What do the current trends show for pollution control?
4. Approaches to continue monitoring and assessment.
B. Pros and Cons regarding an environmental crisis.
1. Myths and reality of pollution.
2. Viability and limitations of the biosphere.
3. Lessons learned from the implementation of environmental policies.
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C. One approach to averting environmental crisis.
I.The carrying capacity concept (the ecosystem).
2. Resource viability and limitations.
3. Comprehensive government-private sector growth policy.
4. Lessons learned in balancing economic and population growth.
D. Cultural myths and realities of problem solving.
1. Human perceptions of cause and effect relationships—the disease
model, ego consciousness, and other barriers to objective thinking.
2. Pervasive conditioning factors on problem definition and decision
making.
E. Where do we go from here?
1. Highlight concepts of environmental management.
2. How do/can we achieve the technical, economic, and behavioral
modifications to ensure an environmental ethic throughout our society?
Representative Questions
1. To what extent is there a convergence of the environmental imperative
and the environmental ethic?
2. Has the problem been exaggerated? Has the environmental imperative
been correctly stated or overstated? What are realistic standards,
measures and policies to ensure nature's balance?
3. To what extent are flora, fauna and ecosystems really threatened
today? Is there a long-term hazard? What is our best knowledge of time
and tolerance considerations?
4. Do we know enough to validate the imperative of major technical,
economic or behavioral change in our society?
5. What are the social, psychological, economic and political implications
of an environmental ethic?
6. What would be the time and other major considerations for im-
plementing the kinds of technical, economic and behavioral
modifications recommended by each participant?
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Session II
EPA Research Symposium
Focusing on
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
Zero Population Growth and Environmental Quality
A. What are the implications of zero population growth?
1. Implications of needs/values/benefits and thresholds of behavior on
ZPG and other population alternatives.
2. Social pathology—population density and distribution.
3. Environmental design for optimum group size and to balance
gratification and frustration.
4. Federal government activities to preserve and improve environmental
quality.
B. Considerations underlying development of environmental policy.
1. Settings.
2. Awareness.
3. Social roles, pathology, density, and distribution.
4. Policy implications.
C. Resource and environmental consequences of population growth in the
U.S.
1. Projections and trends in long-range perspective.
2. How population affects resources and the environment:
a. Land use.
b. Pollution.
c. Mobility.
3. Resource requirements and pollution levels.
4. Ecological perspectives.
D. Public and private policy interactions and implications of
population policy.
1. Needs/problem identification and assessment.
2. Mechanisms for policy formulation and analysis.
a. Federal.
b. Regional.
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c. State.
d. Local.
3. Mechanisms for implementing policy.
a. Incentives.
(1) Financial, taxes, etc.
(2) Legal.
(3) Other.
b. Communication.
c. Education.
4. Barriers, constraints and options.
a. Resources.
b. Institutions.
E. What is the effect of ZPG on growth policies?
1. Goals, objectives and comprehensive plans.
a. Individual and societal.
b. Political: legislative and executive.
c. Government operations.
d. Other institutions.
2. Strategies for social and economic development planning.
a. Incentives.
b. Alternatives.
c. Communications.
d. Education.
Representative Questions
1. What are the traditional conditioning factors which must be considered
in any population policy?
2. How can the needs, values and beliefs of people be effectively deter-
mined? Is an index of these perceptions feasible? Could such an index
objectively reflect the viewpoints of people in their several societal
roles of:
a. Political office holders responsible for policy, program and fiscal
legislation?
b. Career government employees who are responsible for im-
plementing policy and ensuring the effectiveness of delivery systems?
c. Specific citizen groups or interest constituencies potentially im-
pacted by proposed or ongoing policies?
3. Are changing value systems and life styles significantly affecting
reproduction among their adherents? What are the secondary im-
235
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plications of these life styles on concepts of societal roles and respon-
sibility?
4. What are the social psychological, economic and political implications
of a U.S. population ethic?
Session III
EPA Research Symposium
Focusing on
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
Implications of Alternative Growth Policies
A. Social and productivity costs and benefits of growth.
1. Rethink concepts of productivity, GNP, national income accounts, and
other economic measures.
a. Productivity.
b. Social accounting.
2. Diverse perceptions of needs and urgency.
3. Law and regulation, stabilization programs, etc.
4. Incentives.
5. Who pays and how? What are the second order costs/benefits or
frustrations, long term good will, etc?
6. Shifts in the employment base:
a. Decrease in agriculture and manufacturing.
b. Increase in knowledge and service industries.
7. Expanded concepts of gross national product and productivity.
B. Implications of sustainable growth.
1. Growth vs. equilibrium.
2. Delineate the perceived limits and implications of economic growth.
3. Define sustainable growth.
4. What kinds of growth can a nation or region, or the world as a whole,
sustain to achieve maximum economic and social benefits and minimal
disadvantages?
5. What kinds of individual and institutional adjustments may be
required?
6. Alternative patterns and goals of growth.
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G.International implications of growth policy.
1.:New concepts-of wealth and ownership correlated with resource
utilization/consumption product quality, production, employment and
quality of life.
2. Rental vs. purchase of goods.
3. Expanded concepts of ownership.
4. Recycling vs. new materials.
D. Who pays for change and how?
1. Rethink concepts of time, priorities, responsibility, incentives, risks,
rewards for business as a citizen.
2. Rethink concepts of costs, profits, and return on investment in a longer
time frame and including intangibles such as goodwill.
3. Incentives:
a. Financial, tax, etc.
b. Legal.
c. Goodwill.
d. Other.
4. Considerations for a comprehensive government-business growth
policy.
E. How can/do we achieve an equitable, comprehensive national
growth policy?
1. Goals, objectives and comprehensive plans:
a. Individual and societal perceptions of needs, values,
frustrations, satisfactions; etc.
b. Political: legislative and executive.
c. Government operations.
d. Academic institutions.
e. Profit institutions.
2. Strategies:
a. Incentives.
b. Alternatives.
c. Communications.
d. Education.
3. Priorities.
4. Comprehensive government-private sector growth and priority
policies:
a. Federal.
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b. Regional.
c. State.
d. Local.
5. Major considerations for developing and implementing a viable and
comprehensive growth policy.
Representative Questions
1. Is comprehensive policy and program planning possible when it in-
volves various levels of government, academic and profit institutions?
2. Can the long term cost/benefits and other consequences of growth
policy be identified?
3. Who should pay for changes to achieve environmental quality stan-
dards? How?
4. Is it imperative to have a national growth policy?
5. How can regional and local growth policies be effectively integrated?
6. Is is possible to establish or require a consistent growth ethic
throughout our society? How?
7. What are the social, psychological, economic and political implications
of a U.S. and a world growth imperative and ethic?
Research Symposium
Alternative Futures and Environmental Quality
March 7 and 8, 1973
Conference Room 1112
Crystal Mall, Bldg. 2
Arlington, Virginia
SESSION I—THE NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
IS THERE AN ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS?
Dr. Beatrice Willard
Member, Council on Environmental Quality
PROS AND CONS REGARDING AN ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Dr. Donald A. Spencer
National Agricultural Chemicals Association
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ONE APPROACH TO AVERTING ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES
Eugene K. Peterson
Urban and Rural Land Committee, Pacific Northwest River Basin
Commission
CULTURAL MYTHS AND REALITIES OF PROBLEM SOLVING
Dr. Murray Bowen
Georgetown University
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY?
Dr. Garret Hardin
University of California
SESSION II—ZERO POPULATION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF ZERO POPULATION GROWTH
Dr. S. Fred Singer
University of Virginia
CONSIDERATIONS UNDERLYING DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICY
Dr. John B. Calhoun
National Institute of Mental Health
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION
GROWTH IN THE U.S.
Ron Ridker
Resources for the Future
PUBLIC AND PRIVATE POLICY INTERACTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
OF POPULATION POLICY
Graham Molitor
General Mills, Inc.
IMPLICATIONS OF ZPG ON GROWTH POLICIES
Dr. Alex Christakis
Center for Contemporary Problems
239
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SESSION III—IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE GROWTH POLICIES
SOCIAL AND PRODUCTIVITY COSTS AND BENEFITS OF
GROWTH POLICIES
Dr. Michael H. Moskow
Department of Labor
IMPLICATIONS OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
Chester Cooper
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF GROWTH POLICY
Dr. Lincoln Gordon
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
WHO PAYS FOR CHANGE AND HOW?
Dr. Carl Madden
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
HOW CAN/DO WE ACHIEVE AN EQUITABLE, COMPREHENSIVE
NATIONAL GROWTH POLICY?
Dr. George Kozmetsky
University of Texas
240
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