EPA-230/1-73-025
OCTOBER, 1973
            ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
                        OF
   PROPOSED EFFLUENT GUIDELINES

          Seafoods  Processing  Industry
                       QUANTITY
       U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
            Office of Planning and Evaluation

                Washington, D.C. 20460
                            a

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             This document is available in limited
quantities through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
      Information Center, Room W-327 Waterside Mall,
                  Washington, D. C.  20460
         The document will subsequently be available
     through the National Technical Information Service,
                Springfield, Virginia  22151

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EPA-230/1-73-025
                    ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF

               PROPOSED EFFLUENT GUIDELINES

               SEAFOODS PROCESSING INDUSTRY
                          R. E. Seltzer
                        D. L. Jordening
                          J.  K.  Allwood
                          October, 1973
                          Prepared for
                 Office of Planning and Evaluation
                Environmental Protection Agency
                   Washington, D. C.  20460

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This report has been reviewed by the Office of Planning
and Evaluation,  EPA,  and approved for publication.
Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policies of the Environmental
Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or recom-
mendation  for use.

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                             PREFACE
 The attached document is a contractor's study prepared for the Office
 of Planning and Evaluation of the Environmental Protection Agency
 ("EPA").  The purpose of the  study is to analyze the economic impact
 which could  result from the  application of alternative effluent limitation
 guidelines and standards of performance to be established under sections
 304(b) and 306 of the Federal Water  Pollution Control Act,  as amended.

 The study supplements the technical study ("EPA Development Document")
 supporting the issuance of proposed  regulations under sections  304(b) and
 306.  The Development Document -surveys  existing and potential waste
 treatment control methods and technology within particular industrial
 source categories  and supports promulgation of certain effluent limitation
 guidelines and standards of performance based upon an analysis of the
 feasibility of these guidelines  and standards in accordance with the require-
 ments of sections  304(b)  and 306  of the Act.  Presented in the Development
 Document are the investment and operating costs associated with various
 alternative control and treatment technologies.  The attached document
 supplements this analysis by estimating the broader economic effects
 which might result from  the required application of various control
 methods and technologies. This  study investigates  the effect of alter-
 native approaches  in terms of product price increases,  effects upon em-
 ployment and the continued viability  of affected plants,  effects upon
 foreign trade and other competitive effects.

 The study has been prepared with the supervision and review of the Office
 of Planning and Evaluation of EPA. -This report was submitted in fulfill-
 ment of Contract No. WA-73X-425,  Task Order No. 2 by Development
 Planning and Research Associates, Inc. Work was completed as of
 October, 1973.

 This report  is being  released  and circulated at approximately the  same
 time as  publication in the Federal Register of a notice of proposed rule
 making under sections 304(b) and 306 of the Act for the subject point
 source category.  The study has  not been reviewed  by EPA and is not
 an official EPA publication.   The study will be considered along with the
 information  contained in  the Development Document and any comments
 received by  EPA on either document before or during proposed rule making
.proceedings  necessary to establish final regulations.  Prior to final promul-
 gation of regulations, the accompanying study shall have standing in any
 EPA proceeding or court proceeding only to the extent that it represents
 the views of the  contractor who studied the  subject industry.  It cannot be
 cited, referenced, or represented in any respect in any such proceeding
 as a statement of EPA's  views regarding the subject industry.

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                               CONTENTS

                                                                Page

I      INDUSTRY SEGMENTS   '                                1-1
           A.   Types of Firms and Plants                       1-1
                    1.   Number and location of firms and
                         plants                                  I-1
                             a.   Canning plants                  1-2
                             b.   Freezing plants                 1-4
           B.   Concentration in the Fisheries Industry           1-7
           C.   Level of Integration                              I-10
                    1.   Tuna processors                        I-10
                    2.   Shrimp processors                      I-10
                    3.   Crab processors                        1-11
                    4.   Catfish processors                      1-11
           D.   Technological Status of the Industry              1-12
                    1.   Tuna processing                        1-12
                    2.   Shrimp processing                      1-12
                    3.   Crab processing                        1-13
                    4.   Catfish processing                      1-13
           E.   Pack - Canned and Frozen Products              1-14
                    1.   Tuna                                   1-14
                    2.   Shrimp                                 1-14
                             a.   Canned                        1-14
                             b.   Fresh and Frozen              1-14
                    3.   Crab                                   1-18
                             a.   Canned                        1-18
                             b.   Fresh and Frozen              1-18
           F.   Supply Conditions                                1-21
                    1.   Tuna supplies                           1-22
                    2.   Shrimp supplies                        1-26
                    3.   Crab supplies                           1-31
                    4.   Catfish supplies                        1-36
           G.   Employment                                    1-38

II      FINANCIAL PROFILES                                  II-1
           A.   Tuna Processors                                II-2
                    1.   Earnings as a percent of  sales          • II-2
                    2.   f la.nl ucoi_i"iption                       II-3
                             a.   Processing methods            II-3
                             b.   Processing volume             II-5
                             c.   Operating costs  and gross
                                 margin                        II-5
                    3.   Earnings and  cash flow - model tuna
                         plant                                   II-5

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                         CONTENTS (continued)
           B.   Crab and Shrimp Processors
                    1.  Plant description
                             a.   Shrimp processing methods
                             b.   Crab processing methods
                    2.  Earnings and cash flow - model crab
                        plants                                   II-14
                    3.  Earnings and cash flow - model
                        shrimp plants                           11-20
           C.   Catfish Processors                               11-32
                    1.  Plant description                        H-32
                    2.  Earnings and cashflow - model plants   11-32
           D.   Salvage Value of Assets                          11-37
           E.   Constraints on Financing Additional Capital
                Assets    '                                       n-38

III     PRICE EFFECTS                                         IH-1
           A.   Supply and Consumption Considerations           III-l
           B.   Tuna Price Effects                               III-1
                    1.  Canned tuna and fresh meat prices       III-2
                    2.  Canned tuna prices and disposable
                        income                                  III-2
                    3.  Canned tuna prices and changes in the
                        level of prices                          HI-2
                    4.  Who will absorb the costs of pollution
                        control?                                III-7
           C.   Shrimp Price Effects                             III-9
                    1.  Shrimp prices and prices of  other
                        competing products                      III-9
                    2.  Shrimp prices and changes in the
                        general level of prices                  III-14
                    3.  "Who will absorb the costs of pollution
                        control?                                HI-15
                    4.  Qualification of assessment              III-16
           D.   Crab Price Effects                               HI-16
                    1.  Supply-price considerations              HI-16
                    2.  Market channels and prices              111-21
                    3.  Who will absorb the costs of
                        pollution control?                        HI-24
           E.   Catfish Price Effects                             HI-25
                    1.  Price differentials by  catfish types       111-25
                    2.  Market  channel price margins           HI-25
                    3.  Absorption of costs  of pollution control  111-26

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                          CONTENTS (continued)

                                                                 Page

            F.  Market Pricing Practices                        111-27
                     1.   Tuna pricing                            III-27
                     2.   Crab and shrimp pricing                 111-27
            G.  Sales Promotion                                 IH-28

IV     ECONOMIC IMPACT METHODOLOGY                    IV-1
            Fundamental Methodology                            IV-1
                Benefits                                         IV-6
                Investment                                      IV-7
                Cost of Capital  - After Tax                      IV-7
                Construction of the Cash Flow                    IV-9
            Price Effects                                        IV-9
            Financial Effects                                     IV-11
            Production Effects                                    IV-11
            Employment Effects                                  IV-13
            Community  Effects                                   IV-13
            Other Effects                                        IV-13

V      EFFLUENT CONTROL COSTS                            V-l
            Description of Effluent Control Levels  and Costs      V-l
            Current Status  of Effluent Control in the  Industry      V-5

VI     IMPACT ANALYSIS                                       VI-1
            Price Effects                                        VI-1
            Financial Effects                                     VI-8
                Profitability                                     VI-9
            Production Effects                                    VI-12
                Potential Plant  Closures                         VI-14
                Production  Curtailment                          VI-19
                New Source Performance Standards               VI-19
            Employment Effects                                  VI-21
            Community  Effects                                   VI-28
            Impact on Foreign Trade                             VI-33

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                          CONTENTS (continued)
VII    LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS                               VII-1
            General Accuracy                                    VII-1
            Range of Error                                       VII-2
            Critical Assumptions                                 VII-3
                Industry Structure                               VII-3
                Raw Material and Product Prices                 VII-4
                "Representative" Model Plants                   VII-4
                Conversion Factors                              VII-6
                Effluent Control Costs                            VII-6
                Current Status of Municipal Treatment
                 in the Industry                                 VII-7
            Salvage Values                                       VII-7
            "Shutdown" Decisions                                VII-8

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                      ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
   COSTS OF PROPOSED EFFLUENT LIMITATION GUIDELINES
          FOR THE SEAFOODS PROCESSING INDUSTRY
                    I.- INDUSTRY SEGMENTS


This report is limited to Consideration of the economic impact of
proposed effluent guide line a... for the processing of the following
species of seafoods:  tuna, .shrimp,., crab and.catfish.  Both canned
an.d frozen processing is included.  The volume of smoked, dried or
brined seafood products is not of commercial significance for the
-species, considered in this report.. Tuna, shrimp and Crab are marine,
species whereas catfish are produced in farm ponds or are caught
"•wild" from fresh water rivers;   '

                 A.   Types of Firms' and Plants

In general, the firms and plants included fell under two SIC codes:

       SIC 2091 - Canned and Cured Fish and Seafoods (Partial)

Establishments  primarily engaged in cooking and  canning tuna,  shrimp,
and crabs.

       SIC 2092 - Fresh or Frozen Packaged Fish and Seafoods  (Partial)

Establishments  primarily engaged in preparing fresh and raw or cooked
frozen packaged fish or other seafoods. Includes  tuna, shrimp,  crab,
and catfish.

1. Number and Location  of Firms and Plants
Tuna,  shrimp and crabs are marine species and as a result,  processing
plants  are primarily located in coastal areas.  All tuna plants are located
in coastal areas.  However,  some processors of shrimp and crab operate
on the  basis of purchases of  frozen raw product, either from  domestic
or imported sources, and as a result, there are processors (particularly
freezers of prepared shrimp or crab items) who are located inland.
                               1-1

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The number and location of seafood canning and freezing plants, for the
species with which this project is concerned, is  shown in Tables 1-1 and
1-2.

a. Canning Plants - Canning plants are generally located at seaports
where there are major landings of the species canned.  Canning is the
principal method of processing for tuna and is important for both shrimp
and crab but no catfish are commercially canned.

(1)  Tuna canneries are located in California (8), Oregon (5),  Washington
(4), Hawaii (1), Maryland (1), Puerto Rico (5) and American Samoa  (2).

In general,  the canning of tuna is carried out in large-scale,  specialized
plants although some tuna is canned in multi-product fish canneries.

The industry is dominated by five large canners:

       Bumble Bee Seafoods Division of Castle and Cook Inc.
       Del  Monte Corporation
       Starkist Foods Inc. , a division of the Heinz Company
       Van Camp Sea Foods Co. , a division of the Ralston Purina Company
       Westgate-California Tuna Packers Co. , a division of the Westgate-
           California Corporation'

These five firms operate a total of 14 plants and account for over  90
percent of the  total pack.  All are either divisions of conglomerates,
diversified corporations or large diversified food processors.

Two other,  medium-sized  canners operate:

Whitney-Fidalgo Seafoods Inc.  (Seattle) is primarily a salmon canner,
but canned tuna ($4 million sales 1972) accounts for 12 percent of its
total  sales.
IBEC (International Basic Economy Corporation) is a diversified
development-investment New York corporation with substantial
business interest in Latin America, which operates a tuna plant in
Puerto Rico.

The other  packers are relatively small or are parts of diversified fish
canning or custom canning firms.

(2) Shrimp canners are concentrated in Louisiana (12 plants), Mississippi (10),
Alaska (8), and Oregon (4), with Texas having one plant.
                              1-2

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  Table 1-1.  Number of shrimp,  crab and tuna canning plants by state,
                       and total number of firms, 1972.1/
                                      Number of Canning Plants
    State                       Shrimp        Crab        Tuna


Alaska                            8             19
Washington                       -              24
Oregon                           4              25
California                        -              -          8
Hawaii                            -              -          1
Texas                            1              -          -
Louisiana                       12
Mississippi                      10              2          -
South Carolina                    -              1          -
North Carolina                    -              1          -
Maryland                         -              -          1
Maine                            -              1          -
Puerto Rico                      -              -          5
American Samoa                  -                         2

  Total plants	35	28	26

Number of firms	34	2_3	

_L' There was no record of catfish canning in 1972.
In contrast to tuna canning,  the canning of shrimp is carried out in a
larger number of small plants such that no group of firms tends to
dominate the industry.  Shrimp canning is almost entirely carried out
by single-plant firms,  only  one firm out of a total of 34, having two
canning plants.
                            1-3

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 (3)  Crab is canned in seven states.  Alaska is the most important state
 in terms of number of plants, accounting for 19 out of the total of 28.
 Washington, Oregon and Mississippi each have 2 plants canning crab
 and there is one plant in North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine.
 However, the  canning of crab is of decreasing importance as the bulk
 of processed crab is  in the form of frozen whole crab,  crab sections
 or  frozen crab meat.  As was the case with shrimp canners,  most
 crab canners operate but a single plant.  Out of a total of 23 firms,
 5 firms operated 2 plants each.  No firm had more than 2 plants.
b.   Freezing Plants - Although seafoods freezing plants also tend to be
located in coastal areas,  these plants are more widely distributed geo-
graphically.  Lists of seafood freezing plants,  equivalent to cannery
plant lists, are not available from  "official" sources such as the National
Marine Fisheries Service.  However, DPRA has  developed a list of 580
plants that freeze crab, shrimp, catfish and tuna.  The list was developed
from a variety of current trade association lists and listings from federal
and state government sources and has been cross-checked to avoid dupli-
cation.  It is believed to be essentially complete and representative of
conditions which  exist in this industry.

It should be noted that the list includes many inland plants which are
typically reprocessors or producers of specialty  items.   The list also
includes many blue crab processors that process  fresh crab meat in non-
hermetically sealed containers.  These are included in the blue crab
freezing category since it is impossible to differentiate fresh and frozen
producers at this time.

Seafood freezers  fall into two general classes:

        (1) Those  which  operate primarily with  fresh fish.

        (2) Those  which  operate primarily with  imported,  frozen fishery
           stocks, particularly important  in the case of shrimp processors.

Although the effluent problems of the two types  of firms are somewhat
different,  particularly where the frozen raw material is  crab meat, shrimp
processors operating on frozen stocks usually receive frozen  hlnrV.e of
headsoff, shell on shrimp and the thawing and shell peeling and deveining
operations do generate significant amounts of effluent which must be dis-
posed of.

Table 1-2 shows the estimated number of crab,  shrimp, catfish and tuna
freezing plants and firms,  by states, for  1972.
                                1-4

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 Table 1-2.  Estimated number of shrimp, crab,  catfish and tuna
             freezing firms and plants by state,  1972
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Washington .
Wisconsin
Total -All State si/
Crab
2
49

1
12

17
3
1



4
2
7
2



1
7
2



7
3
1

2
3
9
2
137
Shrimp
5
22
1

21
2
38
5
5


1
16
7
2
5
1
4

2
14
3
1
2

6
4

1
18
2
8
3
199
Catfish
5


4
1

1.
1

1
2
1
3




5
2





1

1
1
2
6
2


39
Tuna

2













1









1





1

5
_!_/ The number of crab plants would increase to 360 if those plants
   that pack their product in nonhermetically sealed containers are
   included.
                                 1-5

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The industry primarily consists of single-plant firms.  There are multi-
plant firms located in at  least six states.  Alaska has 42 firms operating
61 plants -- one firm operates 6 plants, one 5 plants and the other multi-
plant firms operate two plants each.  California has four firms operating
two plants each, Florida has four firms operating two plants and one firm
operating three plants.  Multiplant firms in the other three  states
(Georgia, Maine,  Oregon) are limited to one firm which operates two
plant s.

Crab freezers are concentrated in coastal states and operate primarily
with fresh crab.  The leading states, in terms  of number of plants,  are:

       Alaska        -   49 plants
       Florida       -   17 plants
       California     -   12 plants
       Washington   -     9 plants
       Oregon       -     7 plants
       Maryland      -     7 plants
       New York     -     7 plants

These seven states account  for 79 percent of the total number of crab
freezers in the United States.  The inclusion of nonhermetically sealed crab
meat producers as was done in Table 1-2 would substantially increase
these numbers.

Shrimp freezers are also located primarily in  coastal areas,  but operate
to a higher degree, with frozen stocks than do  crab freezers (Table 1-2).
The six  leading states in number of shrimp freezing plants, are as follows:

        Florida        -    38
        Alaska        -    22
        California     -    21
        Texas          -    18
        Louisiana      -    16
        New York      -    14

These nine states account for 65 percent of the total number of shrimp
freezers in the United States.
                                1-6

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Catfish freezers account for 99+ percent of the total volume of processing
in this industry.  There is essentially no production of canned catfish and
only a negligible quantity is smoked or otherwise cured.  Frozen catfish
production considered in this report is confined to processing of pond-
reared catfish.  Virtually all "wild" catfish are sold as fresh fish.
There are some plants which report freezing of ocean catfish, which is
a different species,  and some firms which prepare frozen fish sticks  or
other fabricated items based on imported frozen catfish stocks,  but these
have not been included in this analysis.   Pond-reared catfish are produced
and processed primarily in the Southern States (Table 1-2).  Leading states,
in terms of numbers of freezers,  in 1972 were as follows:

        Texas         -   6
        Alabama      -.   5
        Mississippi    -   5
        Arkansas      -   4
        Louisiana     -   3

These five states account for 62 percent of the total of 39 catfish processing
plants in the United States.  Virtually all of the catfish processors are
operated in conjunction with production enterprises but also process fish
from other producers in the area. All firms but one are single  plant organi-
zations.

Table 1-3 summarizes much of the above data by presenting plant numbers
by type of plant by species by geographical area.
             B.   Concentration in the Fisheries Industry

 No data are available which permit an accurate evaluation of concentration
 ratios by specific product groups (tuna,  shrimp, crab, catfish).  However,
 general industry data are indicative of the overall  situation which exists
 in the canning and freezing of seafoods products.   Data from the  1967 Census
 of Manufactures indicates the following:

                         Percent of total value of shipments accounted for by:
                           4 largest    8 largest   20 largest   50 largest
    Product line          companies  companies   companies  companies

 Canned and cured
    seafood                     44         59           73         85

 Fresh or frozen
    packaged fish               26         38           56         72
                                 1-7

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   Table 1-3.  Number of plants by species,  geographical area and
                           type of plant
Species
                                 Type of plant
Canne:
Freezer
Total
Catfish

Tuna
   0

  26
   39

    5
   39

   31
Shrimp
Gulf shrimp
West Coast
New England
Alaskan
Crab
West Coast crab
Alaskan crab
Blue crab
Total
2/
Other inland plants —
Crab
Shrimp
Total inland plants
Total all plants
23
4
0
8

4
19
5
89



89
35
30
22

28
49 I/
283-
580
Canners and Freezers
17
23

112
39
30
30

32
68
288
669
17
23
40
709
—  Includes Rock crabs and producers  of nonhermetically sealed products.
—  Mostly reprocessors and producers of specialty items.
                                1-8

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Although these data indicate appreciable concentration in the processing
of fisheries products,  for the products considered in this report (tuna,
shrimp,  crab,  catfish) the concentration of processing is as follows:

       Tuna processing - the industry is dominated by five large firms
                         (see page 1-2) which together account for over
                         90 percent of the total pack.

       Shrimp pro-      - the industry is made up of a large number of
         cessing         small processors, some of which are  associated
                         with large national seafoods processors,  but
                         there is no significant degree  of concentration
                         in the industry.

       Crab processing - the situation is similar to that existing in shrimp
                         processing.  In fact, some of  the firms are the
                         same as those  processing shrimp.  No significant
                         degree of concentration exists in the industry.

       Catfish pro-      - the industry is small, processors are scattered
         cessing         and tied to production units.  Three major firms,
                         Gold  Kist, ConAgra  and Southern Catfish Pro-
                         cessors, Inc. are large enough to exercise
                         some degree of dominance in this industry.
                                1-9

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                     C .   Level of Integration

Integration within the fisheries industry varies by product.  Horizontal
integration is most common,  but examples of vertical integration also
exist.
Tuna Processors

Ownership in the tuna industry is dominated by large firms,  mainly
conglomerates and diversified food processors.  Ownership  structure
of this industry was described on page 1-2 of this report.

Horizontal integration exists in that five of the major tuna packers operate
multiple plants.  In addition, while tuna packing is the primary function
of the plants with which this report is concerned, other species of fish
and shellfish (salmon,  crab, shrimp, etc.) are also processed by many
of these tuna packers,  either in the same location or in plants at other
locations owned by these firms.  Two of the major firms  (Del Monte and
Heinz) are also diversified food processors.  Three, Bumble Bee
(Castle and Cook ), "Westgate California Tuna Packers (Westgate California
Corporation) and IBEC (Internation Basic Economy Corporation) are parts
of conglomerates and one (Van Camp Sea Foods Co.) is a division of a major
feed manufacturer  (Ralston Purina).   Others such as Whitney-Fidalgo
or Lazioare diversified (salmon, tuna, crab, shrimp) seafoods processors.

The tuna packers are often vertically integrated backward to a degree in
that, in some cases, they either operate tuna fleets  directly, through  sub-
sidaries or exercise a  degree of control over suppliers through delivery
contracts or financing arrnagements
Shrimp Processors

There is little integration in the shrimp processing industry.  Almost all
processors - either canners or freezers are single-plant firms.  However,
some shrimp processors are divisions of larger seafoods processing
companies such as Bumble Bee, California Westgate,  etc.

Most shrimp processors  also process crab and, in some instances, are
firms which process a wide variety of both finfish and shellfish.

Although there is  some vertical integration backward, toward fishing
operations through the ownership of shrimp boats and through contractual
arrangements with private boat operators, such integration is net an

                                1-10

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important factor in this industry.  Some processors carry integration
forward in that they not only process and  freeze raw and cooked shrimp
but also produced breaded frozen shrimp and other prepared shrimp
products.
Crab Processors

There  is less integration in crab processing than there is in the  shrimp
industry.  Most crab processors are single-plant firms.  However, in
Alaska and the Pacific Coast States, combinations of crab with shrimp
processing are common and some crab processing is carried out by
diverisified fish and shellfish processors.  In common with shrimp
processors,  some crab processors are divisions of larger seafood
processing firms.

Although most crab processors produce only canned or cooked frozen
crab meat, a few firms also produce further processed (crab cakes,
deviled crab, etc.) crab products.
Catfish Processors

Vertical integration, backward to catfish production and forward to live
hauling, catfish restaurants and pay fishing lakes,  is common in the
catfish industry.  Data were available on 22 firms and showed the
following combinations:
                                                                      No. Firms
         Process only                                                      5
         Process plus food fish production                                  5
         Process plus food fish plus live hauling                            8
         Process plus food fish plus live hauling plus catfish restaurant      1
         Process plus food fish, plus live hauling,  plus restaurant,          1
             plus pay lake
         Process plus food fish, plus live hauling plus pay lake              1
         Process plus catfish restaurant                            .        1

Single plant firms are the rule, only one firm operating two plants.

At one time it was thought that the catfish industry offered opportunities
for integration in terms of feed supply, catfish production,  processing
and marketing  similar to that which exists in the broiler industry. Asa
result, large feed-broiler firms such as Ralston Purina undertook to
establish catfish operations.  However, primarily as a result of marketing
problems, these integrated operations were not successful and only one firm
of this type (Gold Kist) remains in the catfish industry.

                               I- 11

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               D.   Technological Status of the Industry
 Tuna Processing

 There has been little change in tuna processing in recent years.  New
 plants, either built or planned, will incorporate the latest developments
 in canning technology and effluent control, but the remainder of the plants
 follow conventional canning procedures which have not changed materially
 in recent years.

 The major change affecting the tuna processing industry has been on the
 supply side.  The securing of adequate supplies of tuna for canning is the
 most pressing problem facing  the industry and many processors are inte-
 grated backward towards fishing operations through direct or indirect
 ownership of vessels or through contractual arrangements with private
 tuna boat operators.  Improvements in the size and equipment of tuna fishing
 vessels have enabled the operators to forage the seas for hundreds and
 even thousands of miles from the canneries where the  fish are to be
 canned.  The fast freezing of tuna immediately after landing the fish on
 the boat  reduces their perishability to a low level and extends the "out" time
 for a vessel up to several weeks.  Such a vessel time "out" from port
 reduces  the number of unsuccessful fishing trips and insures the canneries
 of a more stable tuna supply through the year.

 Some, though not substantial,  improvement has occurred in the use of
 radar to locate new fishing grounds.  Further efforts to improve the methods
 of exploration and location of fish should be of great importance to the tuna
 industry, particularly as the U.S.  offshore fisheries are depleted.

 Shrimp Processing

 In the shrimp processing industry, the most important and far-reaching
technological change has been the invention and adoption of the mechanical
 shrimp peeler.  The PCA Lathrum peeler and the Model A mechanical
 peelers will peel 700 - 900  pounds of shrimp per hour.  Mechanical peeling
has resulted in substantial reductions  in peeling costs, from 40 cents per
 pound of shrimp meat to as low as  10 cents per pound.   The change to
 mechanical peeling is taking place at a time when the availability  of shrimp
peeling labor has dropped substantially, the cost of such labor has risen
 rapidly and the demand for  shrimp has continued to increase.  The develop-
ment of this equipment  has been a major factor in enabling the shrimp
processing industry to meet the problems posed by scarce and costly labor
in the face of increased demand for shrimp.
                                I- 12

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Crab Processing

Technology in crab processing has not advanced at as rapid rate as is
true for shrimp.  Mechanical extraction of crab meat from the  shell
is not as widely adopted as has been the case for shrimp.  However,
roller picking has become important in Alaska in spite  of a somewhat
lower meat yield.  In other areas, hand picking is  still predominant.
For both crab and shrimp meat,  the most significant technological-
marketing change has been the expansion of frozen shellfish sales to
both institutional and household users.

Catfish Processing

Industrialized processing of catfish is a relatively  new  industry and has
emerged in its present form only within the past 6  or 7 years.  Processing
catfish consists of heading, gutting and skinning.  Heading is  ordinarily
done with a bandsaw, gutting and cleaning is done by hand and skinning
is either done mechanically or by hand or by a combination of machine
and hand dressing.  In a survey  of 1 6 catfish processors in the  South,
completed by the USDA in 1970,]J  seven plants used machine skinning,
seven used hand dressing only and two plants used a combination of
machine and hand operations.  Sizing of dressed fish is ordinarily done
by  sight-judgment, but one of the 16 plants had an automatic weighing-
sorting machine.  In its present status, the catfish processing industry
is still at a relatively low-level  stage of technology.
—   Catfish Processing, A Rising Southern Industry, Agricultural Economic
    Report No. 224, ERS, USDA, 1972.

                                 I- 13

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             E.   Pack - Canned and Frozen Products
Tuna

Nearly all tuna are canned,  only negligible quantities are frozen.  Dis-
tribution of the 1971 canne.d pack,  by states, is shown in Table I- 4
California is the leading state, accounting for 9.7 million cases  or 43.8
percent of the total pack.  Puerto Rico is the second most important tuna
canning state, 7.7 million cases or 34.9 percent of the total.  The im-
portance of Puerto Rico has been increasing rapidly in recent years.
Maryland, Hawaii and American Samoa together account for 14. 9 per-
cent of the total pack, Oregon 5.4 percent and  Washington 1. 0 percent.

Sh rim p

     Canned - The Gulf States (Texas,  Louisiana and Mississippi)
     accounted for two-thirds of the pack of canned shrimp (2. 1 million
     cases) in 1971.  Louisiana had 12 canneries, Mississippi 10 and
     Texas 1. Alaska,  with 7 canneries packed 966 thousand cases
     (30. 5  percent of the total) and the balance  (64, 000  cases or 2. 0 per-
     cent) was canned in 4 Oregon canneries (Table 1-5).

     Fresh and Frozen - The pack of fresh (chilled) and frozen shrimp is
     complex not only because of the number of locations and the variety
     of products,  but also due to the fact that plants operate  with fresh,
     frozen and imported frozen raw materials.  Table 1-6 shows the dis-
     tribution of the fresh and frozen shrimp pack, by state and type of
     end product  for 1971.

     Although it is impossible to calculate the absolute  importance of any
     one state because of unreported small amounts shown,  the amounts
     reported account for 260 out of 280 million pounds total product.  On
     this basis,  the principal freezing  states are as follows:
                                I- 14

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      Table 1-4.  Tuna, canned pack,  volume by state,  1971
State
California
Oregon
Washington
Puerto Rico
Maryland, Hawaii and
American Samoa (1)
Total, United States
Pack, thou.
std. casesi'
9,735,943
1, 196, 123
225,994
7, 744,296

3,302,617
22, 204,973
Percent of
total
43.8
5.4
1. 0
34. 9

14.9
100.0
—  48, 1/2-pound cans.
(l)Data unavailable by individual state or territory.
Source:  Canned Fishery Products, 1971,  U. S.  Dept.  Commerce, UNFS
         Current Fishery Statistics No. 5901
    Table 1-5.  Shrimp, canned pack,  volume by state,  1971

Alaska (7)
Oregon (4)
Gulf States
Pack, thou.
std. cases
966,100
63,726
2, 136,428
Percent of
total
30.5
2.0
67.5
   Texas  (1),  Louisiana (12),
       Missippi (lO)!/
Total, United States
3, 166,254
100.0
—  Data unavailable by individual state.
   Numbers in (  ) refer to number of canning plants.

   Source: Canned Fishery Products, 1971, U. S. Dept. Commerce,
           NMFS Current Fishery Statistics No.  5901
                              1-15

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Table 1-6.  Pack of fresh and frozen shrimp, by state,  1971
Region and
State

New England
Me.
N. :n.
Ma £i s .
Mid Atlantic
N. Y.
N. J.
Pa. & Del
Chesapeak
Md.
V Va.

Haw
headless
(OCO Ib)

(:.)
(:.)
--

--
--
.

--
--

Cooked Peeled
whole raw
(000 Ib) (000 Ib)

8,583 2,231
--
(1)

(1)
._
__

__
__
Type of
Peeled
cooked
(000 Ib)

1,823
--
7,451

(1)
--
--

--
--
Preparation
Breaded
(000 Ib)

(1)
--
1, 327

(1)
--
205

(1)
183

Specialties
(000 Ib)

(1)
.
3,509

(1)
(1)
(1)

(1)
(1)

Total excluding
small items
(000 Ib)

12,637
(1)
12, 287

(1)
(1)
205

(1)
183
h-*
°" South Atlantic
N. Car.
!5. C:ar.
Ga.
?la.(East
Gulf
Fla.(West
Ala,
Miss.
.La.
Tex.
432
C-)
2,827
Coast) (!.)

Coast) S, 209
3,394
5, 562
31,612
3D, 083
(1)

1,186
--

15,357
(1)
(1)
791
12,676
--
--
(1)
--

(1)
--
--
2, 545
(2)
(1)
--
14,236
13,342

31,531
--
(1)
1,701
23,986
(1)
--
(1)
(1)

(1)
(1)
--
623
--
432
(1)
18,249
13, 342

53, 097
8,394
5, 562
37,272
72,745
                                            continued	

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                   Table 1-6.  Pack of fresh and frozen shrimp, by state, 1971 (continued)
Region or
State

Pacific Coast
Alaska
Wash.
Ore.
Calif.
Great Lakes
Mississippi R.
Mo. , Okla. ,
Tenn. , Tex. ,
& Wiso
Total U. S.


Raw
headless
(000 Ib)

2,250
--
--
(1)

Cooked Peeled
whole raw
(000 Ib) (000 Ib)

1,309
-- .
--
351
All production imported in U. S.


--

94,139


__

9,892 34,315
Type of Preparation
Peeled
cooked Breaded Specialties
(000 Ib) (000 Ib) (000 Ib)

3,769
(1)
1,706
1,503 9,473 401
totals.

•
4,648 193

20,741 104,588 « 16,613

Total excluding
small items
(000 Ib)

7,328
(1)
1,706
11,728 .



4,841

280,288
(1)  Included in U. S. totals.
(2)  Included with Louisiana.
Source: Processed Fishery Products, Annual Summary,  1971, CFS No. 5903, NMFS,  U.  S. Dept. of Commerce

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                   State                    Percent of total pack

                 Texas                            26.0
                 Florida                           23.7
                 Louisiana                        13.3
                 Georgia                            6.5
                 Maine                              4.5
                 Massachusetts                      4.4
                 California                          4.2
                 Alabama                           3. 0
                 Alaska                             2.6
                 Mississippi                        2.0
                 Other States                        9.6
                     Total                         100.0
Thus it is s'een that raw headless and breaded together constitute 71
percent of the total pack and when peeled raw and cooked are added,
these four products constitute 91 percent of the total.
Crab
       Canned - Crab must be delivered to the cannery either live or
       freshly cooked -- or in some instances  frozen whole or as
       frozen meat.  As a result,  crab processing is normally re-
       stricted to areas near crab fishing grounds.  Three distinct
       areas exist,  Alaska, the Dungeness crab areas of California,
       Oregon and Washington and Blue crab areas along the Atlantic
       and Gulf States.  Data on crab are not as detailed as for shrimp.
       Of the total canned pack, Blue crab accounts for  52.8 percent,
       Dungeness crab 13 percent,  King crab 24.6 percent and Tanner
       or Snow crab 9.6 percent.  Alaska is the most important crab
       canning  state,  accounting for 38 percent of the total pack
       (Table 1-7).

       Fresh and Frozen - The crab freezing industry is divided
       along the same species and geographic lines as was described
       for canning operations.  In addition,  there are four major pro-
       duct forms:  (1) cooked meat,  (2) whole cooked crab,  (3) cooked
       sections and (4) specialty products.  All crab is sold cooked.

       The principal crab freezing states, 1971,  are as follows
       (Table 1-8).
                               I- 18

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 Table 1-7.  Crab meat, canned pack, volume by state and species,
                               1971

State
Alaska
Dungeness
King
Tanner
Total
California, Oregon
Washington
Dungeness.±/
Maine, N. Car., S. Car.
Mississippi
Blue!/
Total, U. S.
Pack, thou.
std. cases
5," 291
33,974
13,278
52, 543
12,737
73,079
138, 359
Percent of
total
3.8
24.6
9.6
38.0
9.2
52.8
100.0
—  Data unavailable by individual state.
Source:  Canned Fishery Products,  1971,  U. S. Dept. Commerce,
         UNFS Current Fishery Statistics No. 5901.
                                I- 19

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                     Table I- 3. Pack of fresh and frozen crab, by species,  state and form, 1971


State

New England -

Mid Atlantic -

Pa.
Chesapeake -

S. Atlantic -


Fla.
Gulf - Fla.




Pacific -



Total U. S.

Dungeness
Cooked Whole
meat cooked Sect. Spec.

Me.
Mass.
U. Y.
N. J.
8c Del.
Md.
Va.
N. Car.
S. Car.
Ga.
E . Coast
W. Coast
Ala.
Miss.
l.a.
Tex.
Alaska 115 1,283 948
Wash. 1,421
Ore. 2,080
Calif. 1,298 100 (1)
4,915 1,383 948 Neg.
Species and type of preparation
King Tanner & Stone Blue &
Cooked Whole Cooked Whole Cooked
meat cooled Sect. Spec. meat cooked Sect. meat
. 	 	 (000 lh^ 	
107
(1)
(1)


3, 002
3,683
2,482
591
1,005
1, 159
1,402
322
498
618
687
9,884 24 6,266 -- 1,175 11 691
361 136
1,220

11,465 24 6,266 Neg. 1,311 11 691 15,592

Rock
Spec.


(1)
(1)
(1)
3,791
1, 228
237
115

338
(1)
521
(1)

437
(1)




9,749
(1)  Included in U. S. totals.
    Source:   Processed Fisher'/ Products, Annual Summary,  1971, CFSNo. 5093, NMFS,  U.  S.  Department of Commerce

-------
                State                      Percent of Total
              Alaska                              39. 0
              Maryland                            8. 1
              Virginia                             7. 5
              Oregon                              6.3
              Florida                              5.9
              North Carolina                       5. 0
              Washington                          3.7
              Other States                        24. 5
                   Total                          100. 0

These data illustrate two important points concerning the freezing of
crab:  (1) Alaska dominates the industry, freezing nearly five times as
much as any other one state and (2) with the exception of Alaska, crab
freezing operations are widely distributed among coastal  states no one
of which produces more than 10 percent of the total pack.

The pack of frozen crab,  by species, in 1971 was as follows:

                Species                    Percent of Total

              Blue (includes Rock)-               48.4
              King                                33.9
              Dungeness                          13.9
              Tanner (includes Stone)               3.8

The freezing of Blue crab is widely distributed along the Eastern and
Southern Coasts, but the  freezing of King and Tanner crab is largely
restricted to Alaska and Dungeness crab processing is distributed from
Alaska to California.

By type of product, cooked meat-picked from the shell and body, is  the
principal product frozen,  accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total.
Specialty products accounted for 18.6 percent,  15. 1 percent was frozen
as cooked sections and whole frozen crab represented 2.7 percent of
the total.

                      F.  Supply Conditions

Supply, as opposed to a rapidly increasing demand,  is,  in the minds of
the seafoods processing industry, the greatest single problem confronting


                               1-21

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the industry today.  In general,  offshore U. S. fisheries for most com-
mercial species,  including tuna, shrimp and crab, have declined in
productivity and U.  S.  fishing fleets face increasing competition from
foreign fleets in international fishing grounds. The situation is further
confused by varying national claims to offshore fishing rights (from
3 to 12  to 200 miles) which has resulted in the impounding of U.  S.
vessels in such countries as Peru and the recent "Icelandic Cod War"
between Iceland and Great Britain.  The proposed Law of the Sea Con-
ference in 1974 will address itself to these problems but no immediate
solution appears to exist.  The catch of some species,  such as tuna,
is regulated by International Commissions or Agreements, but varying
degrees of inspection and enforcement tend to put U. S. fishermen at a
disadvantage.

As a result of supply limitations on the  domestic catch, the  seafoods
processing industry has been forced to turn increasingly to imported
materials.  However, basic processing is  still done in U.  S. plants.
If,  as a result of increased effluent control costs,  returns to the U.  S.
processing industry are lowered so much as  to become unattractive, it
is entirely possible that a greater part of the processing of imported fish
and shellfish  stocks may be transferred overseas.

Tuna Supplies

The supply of tuna,  from  both U. S. landings and imports,  is shown in
Table 1-9 and Figure 1-1 for the period 1962-1972.  A steady growth in
both U. S. landings and imports is seen.  U.  S.  landings  increased from
340.9 million pounds in 1962 to  524.4 million (a  record) in 1972 -- a
gain of 54 percent.  However, much of this increase came from the  •
growth of the tuna industry in Puerto Rico.  Of the total 1962-72 .increase
of 183 million pounds,  118 million,  or 64 percent, was accounted for by
the growth of the  Puerto Rican industry.

Imports of fresh and frozen fish for processing in the U.  S.  gained 400
million pounds, more than double  the U. S. increase, the  imports  of
canned tuna remaining relatively unchanged.  1972 imports of 764. 8
million pounds exceeded the previous record level of 506. 6 million pounds
by over 50 percent.

The canned pack ot tuna in IVY^, bib. 6  million pounds, was the largest
on record,  exceeding the 1971 pack,  the second highest on record, by  40
percent (Table 1-9).  Imported raw materials (fresh and frozen tuna)
                                1-22

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                                       Table 1-9.  Supply of tuna,  1962-72
Year

1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967


1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
U. S. Landings
Atlantic
Gulf, and
Pacific
Coast States
and Hawaii

312, 157
321,619
305,829
318,895
269,172
328,368


293,868
324,884

* 3 93, 494
348,040
377,569
Puerto
Rico

28,790
37,026
48,393
54,576
64,698
97,882


107,660
96,268

84,852i/
128,770^
146,806*27
Total
Imports
Fresh and
frozen in-
cluding
cooked loins
and discs _'
--Thousand pounds --
340,947
358,'645
354,222
373,471
333,870
426,250
364,528
320,910
379,242
378,637
449,840
387,142
I
i
401,528 422,108
i
421,152 414,453
i
478,346 | 464,583
t
476,810 ! 506,602
!
524,375* 764,784*
Canned
In oil

358
224
201
211
160
186


150
158

153
1,050
384

In brine

56,361
57,270
54,446
50,750
61,400
65,135


67,023
72,958*

72, 109
58,792
56,129
* Record.  ]J Round weight.  Includes landings in American Samoa of foreign-caught fish.  ^/Includes a small
  quantity of fish landed in American Samoa by U. S. vessels.
Source:  Fisheries of the United States, 1972, National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Department of Commerce,
         Current Fisheries Statistics,  6100.

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Million pounds
  600
  450
  300
  150
    0
                              Total supply.
                                        1,~
                                  Imported canned
                         .U. S.  pack from
                        :':• imported fresh
                        :j:   and frozen
                             5U. S.  pack from
                             ;   domestic
                             ;   landings
1961  62    63    64
                           65    66   67    68
                                 Year
                                             69    70    71   1972
  Figure I-1,  Supply of tuna,  1961-1972,  by source.
                                  1-24

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                               Table I-10. Supply of canned tuna, 1962-72
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

U. S. pack from
domestic
Landings ]J
Thousand
pounds
147,586
160,822
154,208
161,515
153,231
183,236
176,524
181,786
203,531
194,967
230,333*
I/ Tti/^ln/loG r»a i
Percent
37.6
41.8
38. 1
39-5
33.6
40.3
38.1
38.6
39-9
39.1
34.2

U. S. pack from
imported fresh
and frozen
tuna2/
Thousand
pounds
187,920
165,890
195,626
.196,890
241,037
205,609
219-433
216,651
234,109
243,774
386,282*
rlinors in "PnPT
Percent
47.9
43. 2
48.4
48. 1
52.9
45.3
47.4
45.9
45.9
48.9
57.4
•tri Rirn anH A
Total
--Thousand
335,506
326,712
349,834
358,405
394,268
388,845
395,957
398,437
437,640
438,741
616,615*
mpriran Samoa
Imported
canned
pounds --
56,719
57,494
54,647
50,961
61,560
65,321
6,7,173
73,116*
72,262
59,842
56,513
hv TI. S. vesi
Percent
14.5
15.0
13.5
12.4
13. 5
14.4
14.5
15.5
14.2
12.0
8.4
?e Is. 2/Tnck
Total
supply
Thousand
pounds
392,225
384,206
404,481
409,366
455,828
454,166
463,130
471,553
509,902
498,583
673,128*
ides
tuna canned in American Samoa from foreign-caught fish.
Source:  Fisheries of the United States,  1972, National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Department of Commerce,
         Current Fisheries Statistics No. 6100.

-------
accounted for 57.4 percent of the total supply of canned tuna and im-
ports of canned tuna added 8.4 percent more,  for a total of 66.2 percent
(nearly two-thirds) from imported sources.. It is interesting to observe
that while imports of fresh and frozen tuna for processing  in the U.  S.
have risen dramatically, imports of canned product have been relatively
stable,  exceeding the quota only  one year (1970) since  I960 (Table I-11).

Shrimp Supplies

In response to a growing U.  S. demand, the supply of shrimp has in-
creased even greater than was true for tuna,  rising from 267.6 million
pounds, heads-off basis in I960 to a record 487.5  million pounds in 1972,
a gain of 82 percent.  U.  S.  landings increased 58 percent during the
1960-72 period, but imports gained 113 percent during the same period.
In 1972, over 50  percent of the total U.  S.  shrimp supply came  from im-
ports (Table I- 12 and Figure 1-2).

Imports by Product  Form

An increasing amount of the total shrimp imports are coming in peeled,
not breaded (Table 1-13),  this  category increasing from 27.4 million
pounds  in 1964 to 90. 1 million in 1972, a gain of 229 percent compared to
an increase for shell-on imports  from 112. 1 million pounds  in 1964 to
126.8 million in 1972, a gain of 13 percent. Breaded shrimp imports,
although small -- 1.3 million pounds -- were up 160 percent over 1964.
Imports of peeled,  canned shrimp remained relatively constant  at about
3 million pounds.  The substantial increase in peeled imports indicates
that an increasing amount  of total shrimp imports  are  being processed
(peeled) in foreign countries (or  on board foreign vessels)  probably  be-
cause of lower labor costs.  However, should U. S. shrimp processing
costs increase as a  result of water pollution controls,  this trend toward
overseas processing would be  further accentuated.

Shrimp Imports by County of Origin

Mexico and Central America represents the major area from which U.  S.
shrimp imports are drawn.  In reality,  an even larger proportion of the
total shrimp supply comes from  Latin American waters as the U.  S.
shrimp fleet also fishes in these areas. These countries accounted for
51 percent of U.  S.  shrimp imports in 1972, compared to 56 percent of
our imports  in 1967.  However,  in absolute terms, shrimp imports from
                                1-26

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       Table I-11.  Quota and imports of canned tuna not in oil,  1960-72
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
Quota —

53,448
57, 115
59,059
63., 131
60,912
66, 059
65,662
69,472
66,985
71,703 .
70, 146
77,296
78,532
Imports
Under Over
quota— quota —
rp-i j -i
50,322
56,210
54,379
56,414
52,931
49,204
57,987
62,275
64,907
71,333
70,146 902
55,638
54,449
—•   Imports have been subject to tariff quotas since April 14, 1956, and are
    based on 20 percent of the previous year's domestic pack excluding
    American Samoa.
—   Dutiable in 1956-67 at  12.5 percent ad valorem; 1968,  11 percent;  1969,
    10 percent; 1970, 8.5 percent;  1971, 7 percent; and in 1972, 6 percent.

—   Dutiable in 1971  at 15 percent ad valorem; and in 1972 at 12.5  percent
    ad valorem.

Source:  Department of the Treasury,  Bureau of Customs.   (Data in this
         table will not agree with tuna import data released  by the Depart-
        ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. )

                               I- 27

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                                Table I-12.  Supply of shrimp,  1960-1972
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
o 1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
U.S. Landings
Heads-on
Thousand
249,452
174,530
191, 105
240,478
211,821
243,645
239, 046
307,787
299,289
318,537
367,468
*387,932
384, 952
Heads- off
pounds
148,483
103,865
119, 154
150,737
133, 113
152, 346
148,255
189,972
184, 065
195,002
224,272
*236, 328
234, 432
Percent
of total
Percent
55.5
43.6
43.9
47.4
44. 0
46. 0
43.2
48.5
46.7
47. 1
47.7
52.5
48. 1
Imports —
Import Reads- off
weight
Thousand
113,418
126,268
141, 183
151,530
154,577
162,942
178,549
186,073
189,455
193,741
218,715
191,295
*223,226
pounds
119, 139
134,564
152,504
167,344
169,510
178,955
194,946
202, 105
210,063
218, 697
_245,658
213,857
*253, 065
Percent
of total
Percent
44.5
56.4
56. 1
52.6
56. 0
54.0
56.8
51.5
53.3
52.9
52.3
47.5
51.9
Total,
heads- off
Thousand Ibs.
267,622
238,429
271, 658
318, 081
302.623
331,301
343,201
392, 077
394, 128
413,699
469,930
450, 185
*487,497
—  Imports were  converted to heads-off weight on the basis of available data on the actual condition of the
   imports.  *Record.

Source:  Fisheries of the  United States,  1972, National Marine Fisheries Service, U.  S.  Dept.  of Commerce,
         Current Fishery Statistics No.  6100.

-------
 Million pounds
    400 -
>s
r-H
0,
    200-
                             1    1     I    I    I    T
       I960    1962    1964     1966    1968     1970    1972
  Figure 1-2.  Supply of shrimp,  1960-1972.  (Heads-off weight)
                           1-29

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            Table 1-13,  Imports of shrimp, by product types

Year
Shell-on
headless
Peeled
canned
Not breaded
Raw Other
Breaded
Unclassified Total
(thousand pounds)
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
112,
114,
129,
131,
128,
121,
139,
123,
126,
149
177
919
927
042
243
978
926
771
3,
2,
1,
2,
4,
3,
3,
2,
1,
004
248
547
225
307
583
876
742
123
27,
31,
37,
38,
47,
63,
69,
60,
90,
385
961
233
959
450
792
501
136
143
2,
3,
2,
2,
1,
3,
3,
3,
3,
989
290
565
133
809
814
946
279
866
508
778
527
830
1,567
1,259
1,414
1,212
1,323
8,542 154,
10,488 162,
6,758 178,
9,999 186,
6,247 189,
193,
218,
191,
- 223,
577
942
549
073
455
741
715
295
226
Source:  Fisheries of the United States, 1972, National Marine Fisheries Service,
         U.S. Department of Commerce,  Current Fisheries Statistics No.  6100.

-------
Mexico and Central America increased from 104 million pounds in 1967
to 114 million in 1972 (Table I- 14).  Imports from South America rose from
32.5 million pounds in 1967 to 43.9 million in 1972, a gain of 35 per-
cent and  now constitute 19.7 percent of total imports.  The other major
source of imports is Asia and the Mid East (primarily India) where ex-
ports to the U. S.  rose from 45.9 million pounds  in 1967 to 60.0 million
in 1972,  a gain of  30.6 percent.  This area now contributes 26.9 percent
of the total U. S. imports.  Imports from Australia and Oceania and from
Africa, although small, are growing whereas imports from Europe are
decreasing in response to increased demand for shrimp in Europe.

Supply of Canned Shrimp - Although the U.  S. pack of canned shrimp has
increased from 19 million pounds to 24 million pounds in recent years,
imports of canned shrimp have decreased from  4.3 million pounds in
1968 to 1. 1 million in 1972  and exports (mainly to Canada and the United
Kingdom) have risen from 4.5 to 8.5 million pounds with the  result that
the net supply of canned shrimp available for U.  S. consumption has de-
creased and is lower than it was ten years ago (Table I- 15).

Supply of Frozen Shrimp - In contrast to  the relatively stable supply of
canned shrimp available for U.  S. consumption,  the supply of frozen
shrimp has increased dramatically since 1967,  from 103.3 million
pounds to 141.4 million in 1972,  a gain of 37 percent (Table I- 16).  How-
ever, a substantial part of this volume is "refrozen" shrimp.from im-
ported frozen blocks of shrimp which are thawed, peeled, packaged and
refrozen by U. S.  freezers.

Crab Supplies

U. S. landings of crab have decreased since 1967 and imports of canned
crab have remained relatively steady (Table I- 17).  However,  the compo-
sition of  the crab catch is changing.  Blue crab supplies have remained
relatively constant, but catch of King and Dungeness crab has  decreased.
Tanner crab and other species such as Jonah and Red crab have come  into
commercial use.  These changes are shown by the following data:
                                1-31

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Table 1-14.  Imports of shrimp,  by country of origin, 1967-1972
Imports -
Country
North America
Mexico
Panama
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Honduras
Other countries
Total
South America
Venezuela
Ecuador
Guyana
Brazil
Colombia
French Guiana
Other countries
Total
Europe (Total)
Asia & Mid-East
India
Pakistan
Kuwait
Other countries
Total
Australia & Oceania
Africa
Grand Total
1967

70,
11,
5,
6,
1.
8,
103,

4,
5,
9,
2,

6,
2,
32,
1,

18,
7,

20,
45,

1,

186,

460
126
053
724
922
686
971

773
986
452
726
176
717
623
453
675

436
457
-
034
927
671
376

073
1

59,
10,
5,
4,
2,
10,
94,

5,
6,
8,
3,
1.
7,
3,
36,
1.

22,
5,

37,
54,
1,
1,

189,
968

948
730
627
639
981
754
679

403
289
349
018
619
820
856
354
366

133
475
-
756
414
601
041

455
1969

56,
9,
7,
'5,
3,
9,
91,

5,
8,
8,
3,
3,
6,
3,
40,
1,

34,
5,

18,
58,
1,
1,

193,

239
927
206
026
925
111
434

851
901
155
703
707
037
993
347
235

357
409
-
357
123
514
088

741
1, 000 Ibs.
1970

72,
11,
6,
6,
2,
11,
110,

11,
5,
10,
4,
2,
5,
3,
43,


33,
7,

17,
58,
1,
3,

218,

018
613
021
354
626
937
569

563
992
165
802
065
054
937
578
992

570
125
-
418
062
608
906

715
1971

74,
9,
5,
6,
3,
7,
107,

10,
5,
8,
4,
4,
3,
2,
40,
1,

22,
2,
2,
7,
35,
3,
4,

191,

624
316
639
707
942
751
979

083
332
981
406
841
808
616
067
131

770
924
173
185
052
058
008

295
' 1972

80, 681
10, 105
6, 605
5, 735
4,811
6,212
114, 149

7,995
6,935
6,906
8,931
5,979
3,622
3,515
43,883
1,225

33,524
3,978
2,295
20, 188
59,985
1,497
2,487

223,226
                        I- 32

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         Table  I- 15. Supply of canned shrimp,  1960-72
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
I/ Data
Source:
U.S.
pack

14,268
9,284
13,249
15,904
9,740
15,629
14,201
16,851
18,967
20,729
25, 125
22,345
23,795
not available
Fisheries of
Imports

(1)
(1)
(1)
4,120^
3,004
2,248
1,547
2,225
o-
4,307""
3,583
* 3,876
2,742
1,123
7 1
. — Partly estirra
the United States,
Exports
Domestic

3,482
2,503
2,21£
3,199
3,692
4,510
4,479
5,255
4,467
5,682
6,076
8,334
8,450
ted. * Record.
1972, National
Foreign
j
34
25
44
33
25
34
33
19
20
39
50
-
8
Marine Fisheries
Total for
U.S. con-
sumption

(1)
(1)
(1)
16,792
9,027
13,333
11,236
13,802
18,787
18,591
22,875*
16,753
16,460
Service,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Fisheries Statistics No. 6100.
                            1-33

-------
  Table 1-16.    Freezings of shrimp and crab, 1967-1972
                                 Freezings (OOP Ibs. )
Year                 .     Shrimp                   Crab






1967                     103,322                   6,566




1968    .                 127,031                   6,692




1969                     128,006                   4,340




1970                     137,191                   5,393




1971                     146,691                   7,659




1972                     141,368                  10,018
                       1-34

-------
  Tab.!'? 1-17. Supply of fresh crab and canoed crab meat,  1967-1972
Year

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
U.S. Landings
(000 lb. live wt.)
315, 180
238,500
246, 000
268,500
276,374
281,077
Imports of
canned crab
(000 lb. canned)
2,160
4,635
3,436
2,765
3,723
2,547
Soxirce:  Fisheries of the United States,  1972, National Marine Fisheries
         Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Fisheries
         Statistics No.  6100.
                               1-35

-------
               Species                1967               1972
                                    (000 Ib)            (000 Ib)

               Blue                145,027            145,356
               Dungeness            42,437            26,917
               King                127,716            74,010
               Tanner                Neg.             28, 994
               Other                 Neg.               5, 800
                 Total             315,180            281,077

In contrast to shrimp, imports of crab for processing in the United States
are negligible.  Most crab are landed live and cooked immediately prior
to freezing or canning and importing live crabs is not practicable.  Im-
ports of canned crab meat have declined in recent years as compared to
the early 1960's.

U. S. Pack of Processed Crab - The composition of the U. S. pack of
processed crab has changed markedly since 1966.  In 1966 there was a
record  canned  crab pack of 11 million pounds, but the canned pack has
decreased steadily since that  time and was  only 2.4 million pounds in
1972 (Table I- 18).  At the  same time, freezings of crab increased from
6. 6 million pounds in 1967 to  10,0 million in  1972 (Table I- 16).

Catfish  Supplies

The catfish processing industry operates primarily on pond-reared catfish
produced in the Central South and the Midwest. In 1970 there were 1, 642
producers producing catfish on 40, 406 acres  of ponds in the United States.
Major producing states,  in 1970, were as follows:

                    State                  Acres

                 Mississippi               13, 827
                 Arkansas                 10,300
                 Texas                      3,916
                 Alabama                   3,439
                 Louisiana                  3, 042
                 Georgia                    1,975
                 Other States               3, 907
                    Total                 40,406

Acreage in 1971 is  estimated  at 43, 100.

Size of individual producing units varied from less than  one acre to more
than a thousand acres.

                               1-36

-------
       Table I- 18.  Supply of canned crab meat, 1960-72
Year
U.S.
pack
Percent
of
total
supply
Thousand
pounds
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
4,
5,
5,
7,
6,
9,
11,
9,
4,
5,
5,
3,
2,
115
000
621
356
567
139
002*
707
019
027
097
213
406
Percent
47.
54.
61.
58.
59-
68.
83.
81.
46.
59-
64.
46.
48.
7
1
6
1
3
8
1
8
4
4
8
3
6
Imports
Percent
of
total
supply
Thousand
pounds
4,
4,
3,
5,
4,
4,
2,
2,
4,
3,
2,
3,
2,
507
237
505
296
508
152
233
160
635
436
765
723
547
Percent
52.
45.
38.
41.
40.
31.
16.
18.
53.
40.
35.
53.
51.
3
9
4
9
7
2
9
2
6
6
2
7
4
Total
supply
Thousand
pounds
8,
9,
9,
12,
11,
13,
13,
11,
8,
8,
7,
6,
4,
622
237
126
652
075
291
235
867
654
463
862
936
953
* Record.  Record imports,  13, 507, 000 pounds in 1939-
  Source:  Fisheries of the United States, 1972, National Marine Fisheries
          Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Fisheries
          Statistics No.  6100
                               I- 37

-------
 Collection of data on farm-raised catfish production was begun in 1967.
 In that year there was an estimated production of 13.7 million pounds of
 farm-raised catfish,  compared to 38. 1 million in 1971.  Although the
 industry has grown, it is still experiencing problems concerned with
 processing and marketing the processed fish.


Data on processing  volume were available only for 1970,  1971,  and 1972 as
follows:

                 Year                     Processed Volume
                                                (000 Ibs)
                  1970                           3,438
                  1971                           6,741
                  1972                          10,977

Catch  of wild catfish varies from 30 to 38 million pounds per year.
However, virtually  all of these fish are consumed fresh.

Catfish imports (frozen)  vary between 3 to 5 million pounds annually.
They come mainly from Brazil and are used by fish stick manufacturers
and other processors  of fabricated fish items.
                         G.   Employment

Employment in the seafoods processing has a pronounced seasonal pattern
and within a processing season has intermittent ups and downs depending
on the landings of fish and shellfish which determine the supply available
to processors.

No published data are available which relate to employment by specific
segments of the industry, i.e. tuna, shrimp, crab and catfish.   Industry-
wide  data on employment in the seafoods processing industry are shown in
Tables 1-19 and 1-20.  For seafoods products canning plants, 50 percent
of the plants employ fewer than 20 people,  90 percent fewer than 100, 98
percent fewer  than 250 and only one plant employed over 1, 000 people.
For plants processing fresh or frozen packaged fish,  52 percent employed
fewer than 20 people, 92 percent fewer than 100 and no plant employed
~v«r  OQQ

Contacts made with plants in industry showed the following ranges in em-
ployment.


                                1-38

-------
Table 1-19.  Employment, by size of establishment, canned
               and cured seafoods,  1967.1'


 Number of employees                  Number of plants

 1-4                                        84
 5-9                                        25
 10 - 19                                      50
 20 - 49                                      81
 50 - 99                                      46
 100 - 249                                    26
 250 - 499                                     4
 500 - 999                                     3
 1, 000  - 2,499                                 1


 —  U. S. Department of Commerce, Census of Manufactures,
    1967.
 Table 1-20.  Employment, by size of establishment,  fresh
                or frozen packaged fishA'
 Number of employees                  Number of plants

 1-4                                       123
 5-9                                        54
 10-19                                      79
 20 - 49                                     134
 50 - 99                                      65
 100  - 249                                    25
 250  - 499                                    11
 500  - 999                                     6


 —  U. S. Department of Commerce, Census of Manufactures,
    1967.
                           1-39

-------
       .Tuna processors           -  200 - 1,800 employees
       Combined shrimp and crab -  15 - 85, average 48
       Shrimp processors         -  10 - 30, average 25
       Crab processors           -  15 - 95, average 50
       Catfish processors         -   5 - 25, average 14

It becomes virtually impossible to isolate "shrimp or crab" employment
from  other employment in many plants since these are often multi-product
finfish and shellfish processors.  Tuna processors tend to be more
specialized,  although most plants also process other species, and catfish
processors  normally only process catfish.

Employment is highly seasonal, as related to landings of the particular
species.  Processing seasons will run from 100  - 200 days.  As with
any seasonally-produced  product employment starts low,  builds to a peak
and then decreases as the season draws to a close.  Variation in employ-
ment  during the processing season may vary as much as 200 percent, with
double-shift operations common during peak periods.

Shrimp and  crab operations employ large numbers of women as "peelers"
and "pickers" .  In the Pacific Coast area many of these workers are of
Oriental or  Mexican extraction and in the Northwest and Alaska,  sub-
stantial numbers of Indians and Eskimos  are used.  Thus, these pro-
cessing operations  provide substantial temporary employment opportunities
for minority ethnic groups and plant closures would result in severe unem-
ployment in these groups  which are not ordinarily mobile.

-------
                    II.  FINANCIAL, PROFILES

 Basic investment and operating costs for the seafoods industry are not
 available in published form nor is such information generally available
 from firms in the industry.  The development of investment and oper-
.ating costs for specific products,  e.g.  tuna, shrimp or crab, becomes
 particularly difficult where these products are processed as part of
 multi-product plant operations.  In addition, many of the major pro-
 cessors are parts of conglomerates or  diversified food processors so
 that analysis  of financial statements given in annual reports or of data
 given in such publications as Standard and Poors reVeals little  about the
 costs and returns from the seafood processing operations of these cor-
 porations.

 The situation is further complicated by the fact that the age and construction
 of seafoods processing plants  varies greatly from plant to plant.  Although the
 tuna  processing industry is more nearly "standardized" in terms of types
 of plants than other segments  of the industry, virtually no data on invest-
 ments and operating costs are available.  Shrimp and crab processors
 operate from a variety of facilities.  Some are parts of diversified sea-
 foods processing  plants,  some have "floater" plants based on barges,
 converted ferries, obsolete "Liberty" ships or other hulls, and some oper-
 ate out of shore-based plants which vary from ramshackle operations in
 old waterfront buildings to new,  modern, specialized processing plants.

 There have been no meaningful studies  of the  costs of processing seafoods
 conducted by universities or by the National Marine Fisheries Service.
 In its evaluation of the market research and service programs  of the
 National Marine  Fisheries Service, reported in October, 1972,  Develop-
 ment Planning and Research Associates, Inc. recommended that priority
 be given to costs  of processing seafoods and to economies of scale  in the
 processing of seafoods.  However, no work has been initiated in this area,
 nor does it appear that such research will be  undertaken in the near future.
 An opportunity may exist for the establishment of such research by the
 Sea Grants Institutes  -- associated with about 25 universities,  but to date
 most Sea Grant funds have been allocated to biological or physical re-
 search.

 The pond catfish industry,  as  an extension of farming operations, has been
 studied to a limited extent by the U. S.  Department of Agriculture and by
 Land Grant Agricultural Experiment Stations.  However, most emphasis
                               II-1

-------
has been given to catfish production.  In spite of this, more information
on investment and processing costs and returns is available for this
industry than is true for seafoods processing.

Faced with this situation, DPRA has been forced to develop its own
estimates of investment and operating costs based on such data as are
available from a variety of  unpublished sources and on personal con-
tacts with firms engaged in seafoods processing.   Due to the limited
amount  of time available for Phase I, it has not been possible to contact
representatives of all  segments of the industry.  Personal discussions
have been held with representatives of the Pacific  Coast seafoods in-
dustry from Kodiak, Alaska to San Diego,  California.  However, no
contacts have  been made with the Blue crab or shrimp industries of the
Eastern and Gulf areas, nor with the tuna  processors in Puerto Rico.
Contacts with  these segments of the industry are planned during Phase II
of this project.

As a result, the processing costs and returns developed by DPRA must
be considered as preliminary and approximate.  However, it is believed
that they are representative within a range of _+ 10-15 percent of the
situation existing for processors of the products studied.
                         Tuna Processors

The tuna processing industry is primarily composed of firms which are,
in turn, parts of conglomerates or large,  diversified food canners.  As
such, the financial profile of the parent company or conglomerate is an
important factor dictating the financial status of the tuna processor.

Earnings as a Percent of Sales

Composite industry data for the canned foods industry, which includes
such firms as Heinz (Starkist), Van Camp and Del Monte --  all of
which are major tuna packers -- shows earnings as a percent of  sales
varying from 3.1 to 4.3 during the period 1965-1970, with earnings in
1970 of 3.4 percent of sales. Contact with representatives  of the tuna
industry and review of other financial performance data on this industry,
indicate that industry earnings in the seafoods processing industry are,
in fact, in the area of 3-4 percent on sales. Analysis of the earnings
1967-1972 of a major, specialized seafoods processor showed average
earnings of 3.5 percent on sales.
                               II-Z

-------
Plant Description - Tuna Cannery

The  representative plant as considered in this analysis is a large-scale
plant,  specialized in the canning of tuna,  but also producing pet food
(cat  food) from fish by-products and non-fish ingredients.

Processing Methods - Most tuna canned in the United States are caught
in distant waters. A modern tuna boat can hold 150 to 300 tons of fish
and has a range of approximately 1, 000 miles.  Because of the extended
fishing times, the fish are normally frozen aboard the fishing vessels.
The  fish usually are unloaded (while frozen) by mechanical hoists and
conveyed to the weighing station.  After weighing the fish are  inspected
and thawed.

Tuna are eviscerated by hand in  several steps.  The body cavities are
flushed with fresh water and all adhering viscera carefully removed.
The  viscera are used for fish meal or pet food and the livers are some-
times  recovered for oil and vitamins.

After butchering,  the fish are precooked in large,  open chambers. The
time of cooking varies with the body size, but is usually about three
hours. 'Weight loss during cooking (attributable  to oil and moisture loss)
averages 22 to 26 percent.

The  cooked fish are cooled for approximately 12 hours to firm the flesh.
The  meat is separated by hand from the head,  bones, fins and skin. All
dark meat is removed and usually recovered for pet  food.  The meat to
be canned is placed on a conveyor belt and transferred to the "Pak-Shaper"
machine.

The  tuna slices are arranged lengthwise in the Pak-Shaper.  This device
molds  the loins into a cylinder,  fills  the cans and trims-the meat after
filling.  The machine can fill from 125 to  150 cans per minute.

Salt  and vegetable oils or water are next added to the cans and they are
vacuum sealed and retorted by standard procedures.  The entire process
is diagrammed on Figure II-1.
                               II-3

-------
          PROCESS
WASTES
DISPOSAL
            RAW
         ^PRODUCT,
STORE
I
THAW 	 (
i
BUTCHER 	 (

WASH 	 (
i
PRE-COOK — — (
I
| COOL 1 	 (
i
CLEAN — (
|
PACK 	 (
|
CLINCH 	 (
I
| SEAM
|
CAN WASH] 	 (
i
RETORT — — (
|
] COOL | 	 (
i
CASE
i
WASH DOWt«j 	 (
SOLIDS, WATER ) 	
BLOOD, OIL, SLIME ) 	
WATER ) 	
OFFAL \
MEAT V-

SOYBEAN OIL \ 	
CONDENSATE ^ 	
WATER \ 	
WATER , SOLIDS )—





(RENDI
           FINISHED
          ^PRODUCT/
FIGURE  II-1.    TUNA  CANNING
                  II-4

-------
Processing volume - Tuna canneries are normally large-scale, special-
ized plants.  However,  in some instances,  tuna may be canned in com-
bination with salmon or other fish or shell  fish.

Plant capacity for the representative plant  used in this analysis is
approximately 350 tons of raw product (tuna) per  eight-hour shift.  Annual
pack is approximately 1,600, 000 standard cases of tuna (48 half-pound
cans).

Pet food production is considered to be completely separate from the tuna
processing operations,  but an allowance was made for the  sale of tuna
by-products to the pet food division.


Operating costs  and gross margin - Estimated costs of canning tuna are
shown in Table II-1.  Raw material costs account  for 68 percent of total
operating costs,  labor (11.4%) and cans and cases (9.7%) being the other
two major items. Since it is assumed that all tuna canning operations
are large-scale  or are part of large-scale  diversified seafoods  processing
firms, no economies of scale are postulated.  However, it is  recognized
that with existing plants,  the degree of utilization  of capacity is an im-
portant factor influencing unit costs.

Total costs are  $17.60 per case vs. revenue of $18.45, resulting in a
gross operating  margin of $.85 per case.

Earnings and Cash Flow  - Model Tuna  Plant

Earnings and cash flow for the model tuna  plant are  shown in  Table II-2.
These estimates were developed by DPRA  from a variety of sources in-
cluding published prices for fish and canned product, annual reports of
firms in the  industry, industry contacts, unpublished research and ex-
tablished financial operating ratios.  In the absence  of actual  financial
data from the tuna processing industry, they must be considered as pre-
liminary estimates, but it is believed that  they approximate conditions
existing  in the tuna processing industry.

Annual throughput of 1. 6 million cases is based on average 1971 pack for
major California tuna packers. Given a price of $18. 45 per case  (in-
cluding by-product credits) results in sales of $29,160, 000 and operating
expenses of $28, 160, 000 (Table II-1), cash earnings  of $1, 680, 000 result.
Deducting depreciation and interest paid results in 1972  pre-tax income of
$545, 850 and after-tax income of $283, 842. Investment, working capital
and current liabilities were  estimated from industry financial ratios.
Pre-tax return  on investment for 1972  is 6. 1 percent, after-tax ROI  is
3.2 and  return on sales  pre-tax is 1. 8 percent and after-tax 0.9 percent.

                               II-5

-------
        Table II-1.   Estimated cost of canning tuna, 1972,
                        dollars per easel/
Item
Raw product - fish
Direct labor and related costs
Cans and cases
Condiments (salt and oil)
Warehouse
General and administrative
Total cost
F.O.B. plant revenue
Income (over cost) per case
Cost
12.00
2. 00
1.70
.45
. 35
1. 10
17.60
18.45
..85
Percent of total cost
68. 1
11.4
9.7
2.6
2.0
6.2
100. 0
--
--
—  Per case of 48,  half pound cans.
                               II-6

-------
Table 11-2.  Estimated earnings and cash flow for tuna canning plant, 1972


              Item                                     .  AmoXint

Annual throughput  (cases)                             $1,600,000

Sales,  at $18.45/case                                 29,160,000

Operating expenses at $17.60/case    -                 28,160,000

Cash earnings                                          1,360,000

Depreciation (5% replacement cost)                        223, 750
Interest                                                  590,400

Pre-tax income                                 .         545,850
After tax income                                         283,842

Annual cash flow                                         507, 600

Replacement investment                                8,950,000

Working capital                                       10,332,000

Average fixed assets                                   4,475,000
Working capital                                       10,332,000
Current liabilities                                      5,904,000
Average fixed investment                               8,903,000

Pre-tax ROI (Percent)                                       6. 1
After-tax  ROI (Percent)                                      3.2
Pre-tax ROS (Percent)                                      1.8
After-tax  ROS (Percent)                                     0. 9
                                 II-7

-------
                   Crab and Shrimp Processors

 Crab and shrimp are processed in both canned and frozen form-  Since
 initial preparation, up to the point of actual canning or freezing,  is similar,
 many plants will combine canning and freezing production.  The principal
 difference is that mechanically peeled shrimp are usually canned since
 texture and color is not as good as where shrimp are  hand peeled.

 Plant Description - Shrimp and Crab Processing

 The representative shrimp  plants considered in this analysis process shrimp
 for both canning and freezing and also can and freeze  crab.

 Products produced include canned and frozen shrimp and canned and frozen
 crab.  Shrimp products include canned shrimp, frozen raw peeled shrimp,
 frozen cooked peeled shrimp and  raw headless shrimp.  The plant does not
 produce breaded shrimp or prepared shrimp specialties - these being pro-
 duced by secondary processors.   Products  are packed in both institutional
 size and consumer size containers. Crab products include packed cooked
 meat,  cooked sections and whole cooked crab.  Cooked crab meat is processed
 both by canning and freezing.  All other products  are  frozen only. No crab
 specialty products are produced.

 Shrimp processing methods  - Shrimp are caught commercially in otter trawls
 to a distance of approximately 50 miles offshore.  The shrimp are separated
 from the trash fish and stored by various methods.  When snort storage times
 will suffice, no preservation methods are used; the shrimp are taken directly
 to a processing plant or to a wholesale marketing vessel.  When longer storage
 times are necessary, the shrimp are iced in the holds and re-iced every 12
 hours.  In some cases, notably the Gulf states,  the shrimp are beheaded at
 sea and the heads discarded.  Since the heads contain most of the active
 degradive enzymes, this practice retards spoilage.  If the shrimp are  be-
 headed within  30  minutes after being caught, the intestinal vein is readily
 removed with  the head.  This increases the value of the product.

 The shrimp are unloaded from the vessel into a flotation tank to remove the
 packing ice, conveyed to a rotary drum to remove surplus water and bits of
 debris, and then weighed.  In some areas (Texas  and the South Atlantic states),
 the shrimp are iced  after the  initial preparation  to optimize peeling conditions.

 Next the shrimp are peeled and picked, if the head is  still attached, manually
 or by machine.  Machine peeled shrimp are used  mostly for canning.   The
 machine-peeled shrimp are paler in color,  and have poorer flavor and texture
than the  hand-picked product.  By hand, a picker  can peel from 100 to  400
pounds of shrimp per day as compared to a machine's capacity of 4,000 to
 12,000 pounds per day.  Nearly all Pacific  Coast  and Alaskan shrimp are
 machine-peeled,  but  manual operations are'more important for the larger
 sizes of Gulf shrimp.

                                11-8

-------
After peeling, the meats are inspected and -washed.  They are then blanched
in a salt solution for about 10 minutes and dried by various  methods to
remove surface water. Again the shrimp are inspected and then canned.
The process is outlined on Figures II-2 and II-3.

Crab Processing methods - Crabs are  harvested from shallow water in
baited traps.  Rapid and careful handling is necessary to keep the crabs
alive;  dead crabs must be discarded because of rapid decomposition.

At most plants, the  whole crabs are steam cooked in retorts for 20 to 30
minutes.  Pacific-Coast  Dungeness crab operations first butcher the crabs
(remove the backs), and then cook them for 12 minutes or less.

Cooked crabs are marketed in the shell, butchered or whole,  or the meats,
picked from the shell, are marketed fresh,  frozen,  or canned.  The majority
of the Atlantic blue crab meat  is marketed fresh or frozen,  but the majority
of the Pacific Coast crab meat is canned.  A large quantity  of Dungeness
crab is sold in the shell and large quantities of king  crab are butchered at
sea.  Both practices minimize the quantity of butchering wastes to be  handled
at the processing plant.

The crabs are water cooled after cooking to facilitate handling.   The backs
are  removed if the crabs were not butchered before  cooking, and the re-
maining viscera are washed free.  The cooking, cooling and washing waters
contain considerable solids and organic pollutants (see Figures  II-4 and II-5).
The meat is picked from the shells by hand with a small knife.  Mechanical
methods have only recently been developed to extract the meat from the shells.
Mechanical extraction known as "roller picking" involves passing crab legs
and parts  through a  wringer-like set of rollers which bones out the meat.

Crab meat quickly degrades in quality and must be chilled,  frozen or canned.
Chilled meats can be stored for only a  few days; even frozen meats lose
texture and flavor qualities rapidly.  Canning of crab meat  results in additional
wastewater flows: retort and can cooling waters.  The canning  and freezing
processes are shown in Figures II-4 and II-5.
                                II-9

-------
        PROCESS
WASTES
DISPOSAL
                            WATER








                             SHELL








                             SOLIDS




                             WATER
        WASH DOWN]—•{    WATER, SOLIDS

                                               (RENDERING!
FIGURE II-2.   SHRIMP HANDPICKING
                11-10

-------
         PROCESS
WASTES
DISPOSAL
                          SHELL.WATER



                          SHELL.WATER




                          MEAT, WATER



                             SHELL



                              MEAT




                              MEAT




                              MEAT




                             WATER








                             WATER




                             WATER








                          SOLIDS. WATER
                                         (RECEIVING ]
FIGURE II-3.  MECHANICAL SHRIMP PEELING
                    11-11

-------
          PROCESS
                   WASTES
DISPOSAL
BUTCHER }——{  SHELL,VISCERA     )



                   WATER




                 GILLS, WATER
           COOK   }	/
             E^-CT I	(  SHELL .MEAT, WATER  )
           BLANCH |	(     MEAT, WATER
FIGURE II-4.   CRAB CANNING

-------
         PROCESS
WASTES
DISPOSAL
                       VISCERA, SHELL.WATER
FIGURE II-5.  CRAB FREEZING
                   11-13

-------
Earnings and Cash Flows - Model Crab Plants
Costs of production,  revenues, earnings and cash, flows for model crab
processing plants are shown in Tables II-3 through II-7.

The following types and sizes of plants were analyzed:
       Type of plant
1.  Alaskan canned crab meat
2.
3.  Alaskan frozen crab meat
4.
5.  Blue crab canned meat
 Size            Annual throughput
               (000 Ib.  liveweight)

Small                2, 100
Medium              3, 750
Small                2, 100
Medium              3, 750
Small                2, 000
Earnings for the types and sizes of plants specified were as follows:
                                        Type and size of plant
Pre-tax income ($000)

After-tax income ($000)

Pre-tax ROI (%)

After-tax ROI (%)

Pre-tax ROS  (%)

After-tax ROS (%)
Cash flow  ($000)
Alaskan Crab
Canned
Small
$73

38
1

1

4.
7.
0.
5.
8
7
1
2
58
Medium
$135
70
18.
9.
10.
5.
100


1
4
4
4

Blue C
Frozen
Small
$132
67
15.
7.
8.
4.
101
Medium


0
6
1
1

$248
129
18.
9.
8.
4.
179


0
3
5
4

rab
Canned
Small
$14
7
9.
4.
2.
1.
10


1
8
4
2

                                  11-14

-------
  Table II-3.  Estimated cost of producing Alaskan canned crab meat
Item
Raw material
Labor
Cans and cases
Other direct costs
Overhead and other
Total cost
Average revenue
Return over cost
Cost per case
$22. ZO i/
6.95
1.90
3.05
6.50
$40.60
45.00
4.40
Percent of total
55
17
5
8
15
100


_' Assumes 6.7 pounds liveweight per pound of product, $. 17 live-weight
   price per pound and 19.5 pounds per  case
                               11-15

-------
     Table II-4.  Estimated cost of producing Alaskan frozen
                            crab meat
Item
Raw material
Labor
Cans and cases
Other direct costs
Overhead and other
Total cost
Average revenue
Return over cost
Cost per pound
$2. 25 -1
.50
.04 -
.09
. .34
$3.22
3.50
.28
Percent of total
70
16
1
3
10
100


—  Assumes 4.5 pounds  live weight per pound of product (75% meat, 25%
   whole and sections) and $. 50 liveweight price per pound
                               Il-lb

-------
    Table H-5.  Indicative financial profile of Alaska crab processing plants
Medium
Item
Plant size (Tons per day)
Throughput (1,000 Ibs liveweight)
Sales ($1,000)
Operating expenses ($1,000)
Cash
Cash earnings ($1,000)
Depreciation ($1,000)
Interest ($1,000)
Int
Pre-tax income ($1,000)
After -tax income ($1,000)
Cash flow ($1,000)
Replacement investment ($1,000)
Estimated book value ($1,000)
Net working capital ($1, 000)
Invested capital ($1,000)
Pre-tax ROI (Percent)
After-tax ROI (Percent
Pre-tax ROS (Percent)
After-tax ROS (Percent)
Frozeni'
12.5
3,750
2,916
2,574

342
50
44

248
129
179
2,000
1,000
379
1,379
18.0
9.3
8.5
4.4
Canned
12.5
3,750
1,292
1,108

184
30
19

135
70
100
1,200
600
146
746
18. 1
9.4
10.4
5.4
Small
Frozen.!/
7.0
2, 100
1,634
1,443

191
34
25

132
67
101
1,340
670
212
882
15.0
7.6
8. 1
4. 1
Canned
7.
2, 100
724
620

104
20
11

73
38
58
800
400
94
494
14.
7.
10.
5.
0















8
7
1
2
—  Assumes 75 percent frozen meat and 25 percent frozen whole and sections.
                               11-17

-------
     Table II-6.  Estimated cost of blue crab canning plant
    Item
Cost per pound   Percent of total
Raw material




Labor




Packaging and distribution





Overhead and other




    Total cost





Revenue




Return over cost
   $1.00




     .93




     .25




     .48




   $2.66




   $2.80




     . 14
 38




 35




  9




 18




100
                              11-18

-------
 Table II-7.   Estimated earnings and cash flow for model blue crab
                          canning plant
    Item
Amount
Annual throughput (live weight)

Sales

Operating expenses

Cash Earnings

Depreciation
Interest

Pre-tax Income
After-tax Income

Annual cash flow

Replacement investment

Average fixed capital
Working capital 35% Nos
Current liabilities
Average fixed investment

Pre-tax ROI (percent)
After-tax ROI  (percent)
Pre-tax ROS  (percent)
After-tax ROS  (percent)
2,000,000

  560,000

  532,000

   28,000

    3, 125
   11,200

   13,675
    7, 100

   10,225

  125,000

   62,500
  196,000
  112,000
  146,500

    9.3
    4.8
    2.4
    1.2
                              11-19

-------
Earnings and Cash Flows  - Model Shrimp Plants

Costs of production,  revenues, earnings and cash flows for model shrimp
processing plants are shown in Tables II-8 through 11-18.
The following types and sizes of plants were analyzed:
         Type of plant
Size
Annual throughput
(000 Ib. liveweight)
1. Alaskan canned shrimp
2. Alaskan canned shrimp
3. Alaskan frozen shrimp
4. Alaskan frozen shrimp
5. Gulf Coast canned shrimp
6. Gulf Coast frozen shrimp
7. Gulf Coast breaded shrimp
8.
Earnings for the types and sizes
Small
Medium
Small
Medium
Medium
Medium
Small
Large
of plants specified were
Income ROI
Pre-
Type & Size of Plant tax
($000)
Alaskan, canned, small $144
Alaskan, canned, medium 259
Alaskan, frozen, small 111
Alaskan, frozen, medium 206
Gulf, canned, medium 78
Gulf, frozen, medium 32
Gulf, breaded, small 9
Gulf, breaded, large 150
After- Pre- After-
tax tax tax
($000) (%) (%)
$ 75 21.4 11.2
135 '25.0 13.0
58 11.5 6.0
107 14. 1 7.4
41 7.6 4.0
17 4.4 2.3
5 3.8 1.9
78 7.6 3.9
2,600
4,550
2,600
4,550
3, 000
3,500
875
5,000
as follows:
ROS
Pre- After-
tax tax
(%) (%)
11.9 6.2
12.3 6.4
13.8 7.2
14.6 7.6
4.1 2.2
3.1 1.6
3.1 1.6
5.0 2.8









Cash Flow


($000)
$ 26
173
43
171
79
77
15
243
                                  11-20

-------
 Table II-8.  Estimated cost of producing Alaskan canned shrimp
*
Item
Raw material
Labor
Cans and cases
Other direct cost
Overhead and other
Total cost
Average revenue
Return over cost
Cost per case
$3.10 -1
1.76
1.90
.94
1.63
$9.33
10.35
1.02
Percent of total
33
19
2.1
10
17
100


—  Assumes 3.3 pounds liveweight per pound of product, liveweight price
   of $. 14 per pound and 6.75 pound product per case.
                              11-21

-------
  Table II-9.  Estimated cost of producing Alaskan frozen shrimp
Item
Raw material
Labo r
Cans and cases
Other direct cost
Overhead and other
Total cost
Average revenue
Return over cost
Cost per pound
$ .75 I/
.16
.04
.19
. 18
$ 1.32
1.55
.23
Percent of total
57
12
3
14
14
100


—  Assumes 5.0 pounds  liveweight per pound of product and liveweight price
   of $. 15 per pound.
                               11-22

-------
Table 11-10.  Indicative financial profile of Alaska shrimp processing plants
Medium
Item
Plant size (Tons per day)
Throughput ($1,000 Ibs liveweight)
Sales ($1,000)
Operating expenses ($1,000)
Cash earnings ($1,000)
Depreciation ($1,000)
Interest ($1,000)
Pre-tax income ($1,000)
After -tax income ($1,000)
Cashflow ($1,000)
Replacement investment ($1,000)
Estimated book value ($1,000)
Net working capital ($1,000)
Invested capital ($1,000)
Pre-tax ROI (Percent)
After-tax ROI (Percent)
Pre-tax ROS (Percent)
After-tax ROS (Percent)
Frozen
17.5
4,550
1,410
1, 119
291
64
21
206
107
171
2,540
1,270
183
1,453
14. 1
7.4
14.6
7.6
Canne d
17.5
4,550
2, 112
1,783
329
38
32
259
135
173
1,520
760
275
1,035
25.0
13.0
12.3
6.4
Small
Frozen
10.0
2,600
806
640
166
43
12
111
58
43
1,720
860
105
965
11.5
6.0
13.8
7.2
Canned
10.
2,600
1,207
1,019
188
26
18
144
75
26
1,030
515
157
672
21.
11.
11.
6.
0













4
2
9
2
                               11-23

-------
 Table 11-11. Estimated cost of producing canned shrimp,  1972 Gulf Coast
Item
Raw material
Labor
Cans and cases
Other expenses and overhead
Total cost
Revenue
Return over cost
Cost per case—
$8.50
1.60
1.35
1.55
$13.00
14. 15
1. 15
Percent of total
65
1Z
10
13
100


_' Per case of 24,  4 1/2 ounce cans.
                               11-24

-------
Table II-12. Estimated earnings and cash flow for Gulf Coast shrimp
                        canning plant,  1972


    Item                                                   Amount

Annual throughput (live basis)                               3,000,000

Sales                                                      1,888,000

Operating expenses                                         1,734,500

Cash earnings                                                 153,500

Depreciation                                                  37,500
Interest                                                       37,800

Pre-tax  income                                               78,200
After-tax income                                              41,000

Annual cash flow                                              78,500

Replacement investment                                    1,500,000

Average  fixed assets                                          750,000
Working capital                                               660,760
Current  liabilities                                             377,500
Average  fixed investment                                   1,033,260

Pre-tax  ROI (percent)                                          7.6
After-tax ROI (percent)                                        4.0
Pre-tax  ROS  (percent)                                        4.1
After-tax ROS  (percent)                                        2.2
                               11-25

-------
Table 11-13. Estimated cost of producing frozen shrimp,  1972, Gulf Coast






    Item                               Cost per pound   Percent of total






Raw material                            $ .91              62




Labor                                     .15              10




Packaging and sales                        .25              17





Overhead                                  . 16              11




    Total cost                             $1.47             100




Revenue                                   1.65




Return over cost                           . 18
                              11-26

-------
Table 11-14.  Estimated earnings and cash flow for shrimp freezing
                   plants,  Gulf Coast 1972
    Item
A mount
Annual throughput (live weight)

Sales

Operating expenses

Cash earnings

Depreciation
Interest

Pre-tax income
After-tax income

Annual cash flow

Replacement investment

Working capital
Average fixed investment
Current liabilities
Average fixed investment

Pre-tax ROI (percent)
After-tax ROI (percent)
Pre-tax ROS (percent)
After-tax ROS (percent)
3,500,000

1,010,625

   900,375

   110,250

    60,000
    18,200

    32,050
    16,666

"   76,666"

1,200,000

   353,700
   600,000
   232,400
   721,300

     4.4
     2.3
     3. 1
     1.6
                               11-27

-------
Table  11-15. Estimated cost of producing breaded shrimp, Gulf Coast,  1972
                           (large plant)


Item                                    Cost per pound  Percent of total

Raw material                              $2.28              88

Labor                                       .18               7

Overhead                                    .10               4

Other                                        ^04             	2

    Total cost                              $2.60             100

Average revenue         .                   2.75

Return over cost                             . 15
                               11-28

-------
Table 11-16.  Estimated earnings and cash flow for breaded shrimp,  1972,
                        Gulf Coast (large plant)
    Item
      Amount
Annual throughput (live weight)
Sales
Operating expenses

Cash earnings

Depreciation
Interest

Pre-tax income
After-tax income

Annual  cash flow

Replacement investment -

Working capital

Average fixed assets
Current liabilities
Average fixed investment

Pre-tax ROI (percent)
After-tax ROI  (percent)
Pre-tax ROS (percent)
After-taxROS  (percent)
  	 5,000,000
      2,750,000

      2,385,500

        364,500   ,

         82,500  _r ,..
         49,500^'

        150,000
         78,000
            3i '<

        243,000    .

	3,300-, 000-

        962,500

      1,650,000
        632,500
      1,980,000

          7.6
          3.9
          5.0
          2.8
                               11-29

-------
Table 11-17. Estimated cost of producing breaded shrimp, 1972, Gulf Coast
                           (small plant)
    Item
Cost per pound   Percent of total
Raw material                            $  . 90

Labor                                      .21

Packaging, peeling and distribution          .25

Other                                       . 12

    Total cost                            $ 1.48

Revenue                                   1.62

Return over cost                            . 14
                     60

                     14

                     17

                    	9

                    100
                               11-30

-------
Table 11-18.  Estimated earnings and cash flow for breaded shrimp, 1972,
                         Gulf Coast (small plant)
    Item
A mount
Annual throughput (liveweight)

Sales

Operating expenses

Cash earnings

Depreciation
Interest

Pre-tax income
After-tax income

Annual cash flow

Replacement investment

Average fixed investment
Working capital
Current liabilities
Average fixed investment

Pre-tax ROI(percent)
After-tax ROI  (percent)
Pre-tax ROS  (percent)
After-tax ROS  (percent)
  875,000

  283,500

  259,000

   24,500

   10,000
    5,670

    8,830
    4,590

   14,590

  400,000

  200,000
   99,225
   56,700
  242,500

    3.8
    1.9
    3.1
    1.6
                              11-31

-------
 Plant Description  - Catfish Processors

 Pond-reared catfish are processed in specialized, single-product plants,
 usually operated in conjunction with pond-catfish production enterprises.

 Catfish processing methods - Catfish are harvested by draining the ponds
 and are  shipped alive in tank trucks to processing plants.   Live hauling
 eliminates the need for meat preservation before processing,  but generates
 the problem of disposal of the feces-contaminated holding water.

 Figure II-6 depicts the processing method and the wastes  resulting.  The fish
 are held in live tanks until processing, which results in more  feces-contami-
 nated water.

 The fish are first  stunned, commonly with electric shock, and then butchered.
 The butchering process, which includes  skinning, beheading, and eviscerating,
 can be either manual or mechanical.  Catfish traditionally have been skinned
 before marketing.


 Butchering machines  remove only the outer layer of pigmented skin for
 esthetic  reasons.  This process results  in solid wastes containing skins,
 heads and viscera  and wastewaters  containing blood,  slime and flesh.

 The processed fillets or steaks are marketed fresh and frozen (breaded or
 plain).

 Earnings and Cash Flow-Model Catfish Processing Plant

 The model catfish  processing plant  is assumed to process 1, 600, 000 pounds
 (liveweight basis) of catfish annually.  This volume is based on 250 oper-
 ating days, 8, 000 pounds daily capacity and 60 percent  of capacity.  How-
 ever, a survey of 16 operating plants in the South in 1970_i' reported that
 the 16 plants surveyed only processed an average of 400, 000 Ibs.  per
 plant, 25 percent of the indicated volume.  This low utilization of capacity
 is a problem which continues to plague the catfish processing industry.

 Estimated costs of processing catfish are shown in Table 11-19.  These
 costs were developed by the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries and have been
 adjusted by DPRA to reflect current costs and.prices.  These costs result
 in a gross margin  of revenue over operating costs of  2.4£ per  pound.  How-
 ever, it  should be  emphasized again that the low rate of utilization of pro-
 cessing capacity, which characterizes many plants in the industry, will
 reduce returns below  the level indicated.
—  Catfish Processing, A Rising Southern Industry, ERS, USDA, Agr.  Econ.
   Report 224, 1972.
                                11-32

-------
         PROCESS
                  WASTES
DISPOSAL
            RAW
         J»RODUC1
         TRANSPORT}—•{

           STORE  f——{
            SKIN
                   FECES

                   FECES

                   SKINS
          BEHEAD  |	( BLOOD.WATER,HEADS )
ISCERAT^—(BLOOD.WATER.VISCERA )

                   WATER
           WASH
         WASH DOWN]	(    SOLIDS, WATER
         TINISHED^
         sPRODUCp
FIGURE Jl-6.  CATFISH PROCESSING
                    n- 33

-------
Table 11-19. Estimated processing costs for frozen pond-reared catfish
Item
Raw material (fish at plant)
Labor
Packaging material
Building and equipment costs
Overhead and sales cost
Total cost
F.O.B. plant revenue
Return over cost
Cost per pound
$ .640
.095
.040
.063
.055
$ .893
.917
.024
Percent of total
72
11
5
7
5
100


                              11-34

-------
Annual throughput of 1, 600, 000 pounds is based on the  survey of Southern
processors and a 250-day year with an 80 percent utilization of capacity.
It is recognized that 60 percent utilization may be above the current
industry average.

At 60 percent utilization, with a price of 91.7  cents per pound for frozen
fish, f.o.b. processor,  total revenue is $i, 100, 000.  Processing costs
are estimated at  89/. 3 cents a pound.  Gross margin is 2.4 cents  per pound
resulting in cash earnings of $28,000.  Deducting depreciation and interest
results  in a pre-tax income of $1, 650 and after-tax income of $858.  Pre-
tax income return on investment is 1. 4 percent after-tax ROI is 0.7 percent
and return on sales, pre-tax is 0.2 percent and after-tax 0. 1 percent.
                               11-35

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 Table 11-20.   Estimated earnings and cash flow for model catfish
                      processing plant
       Item
60% Capacity
Annual throughput, pounds frozen fish

Sales at 91. 7£ per pound

Operating expenses at 89. 3£ per pound (Table II- 19)

Cash Earnings

Depreciation
Interest

Pre-tax income
After-tax income

Annual cash flow

Replacement investment

Working capital

Average  fixed assets
Working capital
Current liabilities
Average  fixed investment

Pre-tax ROI (Percent)
After-tax ROI (Percent)
Pre-tax ROS (Percent)
After-tax ROS (Percent)
  1,600,000

  1, 100,000

  1,072,000

     28,000

     10,750
     15,600

      1,650
        858

     11,608

    215,000

    281,000

    107,500
    281,000
    216,000
    117,500

      1.4
      0.7
      0.2
      0. 1
                              11-36

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                     Salvage Value of Assets
The salvage value of seafoods processing plants •will vary widely from
plant to plant depending on the age of the plant and its  equipment,  the
condition of the plant and its equipment and its  location.

In common with most food processing plants, seafoods processing plants
undergo  periodic renovation,  continuous  repair and maintenance and equip-
ment items are replaced  as they wear  out or become obsolete.

Tuna processing plants are specialized canning installations and the
buildings and equipment would have little value above scrap.  However,
in some  locations,  especially Southern California, site values may be
high as opportunities for  sale of land for waterfront industrial sites may
be good.

Crab and shrimp processing plants vary  greatly regarding type  of  structure
and site  value.  Some "floater" plants  are located on barges, converted
ferries or obsolete ship hulls and these facilities would have only scrap
value. Some shore-based plants would have value for general purpose
use and for cold storage warehouse purposes.  In some locations along
the California, Oregon, Washington  coasts and particularly in Florida,
site values may be appreciable.  In other locations,  site values may be
nominal. Equipment would generally have only salvage value.

Catfish processing plants, although relatively new, are special purpose
plants tied to areas where pond catfish production is important.  Generally
their locations would have low site values and with the exception of freezing
equipment, equipment would have only nominal salvage values.  The same
would be true  of buildings .

Where plants are  forced  to close because they are presently unprofitable,
or because they would become unprofitable if they were forced to assume
the added investments and operating costs required for -water pollution
control,  then the salvage  value of the buildings would be essentially zero,
the equipment might sell  from 10 to  50 percent of its original cost and the
value of  the site could vary widely, depending on location.

In many  instances, the  value of a seafoods processing plant, particularly
where a  small firm is involved, would be greater to its present owner than it
would be to any potential  buyer.  In terms of "book value, " the physical
facilities and equipment may have  been fully depreciated, or nearly so,
but in terms of their "use value" to their present owners,  these plants
may represent assets of very tangible  values—much greater than their
market or their salvage value.

                               U-37

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 Since no data are available on actual salvage values for seafoods processing
 plants and since a "market" for plants which would be forced to close, be-
 cause of added costs of water pollution control,  would be  virtually non-
 existent, the impact analysis  will use arbitrary assumptions.  All oper-
 ating capital will be recovered intact, land will be valued at its original
 cost and buildings and equipment will be valued at a series  of percentages
 of their original value as follows:  25 percent,  10 percent and 0 percent.
 The combined value of operating capital, land,  buildings, and equipment
 will represent the salvage value to be used.
        Constraints on Financing Additional Capital Assets

Constraints on financing additional capital required for water pollution
control facilities will vary greatly from firm-to-firm and from location-
to-location.  In general,  it is not anticipated that there will be any serious
constraints in securing capital  required for pollution control for large and
medium size meat seafoods processing plants.  However, in individual
situations where plants are old and absolete  or unprofitable, and where
local conditions may require  substantial investments for internal pollution
abatement systems or for participation in expanding capacity of sewer
systems in small communities, meat industry management  may hesitate
to make the investments required  -- even though capital may be available.

In a  substantial number of situations, tuna, crab and shrimp processing
plants are owned by conglomerates,  large diversified food processing
firms  or by large diversified seafoods processing companies.   This
ownership pattern was discussed in Chapter  I. In these situations, it is
anticipated that capital availability would not be a limiting factor.  Also,
it is known that a substantial proportion of these  plants will be able to
connect to municipal sewers where,  except for connection charges,
only nominal capital will be required.   This  should  ease the problem for
many small plants.

Capital availability may be a  much more serious problem for small plants
which  continue to operate primarily because  owners have depreciated out
original investment costs,  consider their investment in the  plant as "sunk
capital" and consider that the plant has a "utility value" if continued in
operation which is greater than the "market  value"  or "salvage value"
of the  plant should they decide to cease operations.  For such plants, the
increased investment required  for pollution control may be  difficult to
obtain and even if available may be unattractive to both the borrower and
the lender.  In these situations, the decision to attempt to obtain additional
capital may be based on the desire of the owners to maintain the business
for personal employment reasons  rather than on the expectation of realizing
a return on invested capital.

                                11-38

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                      III.   PRICE EFFECTS
            A.  Supply and Consumption Considerations
Both the total and per capita consumption of all fishery products by U.S-
consumers have risen gradually since 1955, when the per capita rate
•was 10. 5 pounds to 12. 2 pounds in 1972.  This 16. 2 percent rise occurred
during a period when the domestic catch used for human food declined
from  2,579 million pounds in 1955 to 2,579 million pounds in 1971.
The fishery industry increased its imports from 1,332 million pounds
in 1955 to 3,582 million pounds in order to meet the  requirements of
U.S.  consumers.  Canned tuna and shrimp, both raw and processed,
accounted for a very substantial part of the rise both in supply and
consumption.  Since there has been no  substantive increase  in the  world
production of fishery products for human food when worldwide consump-
tion was rising, competitive buying intensified among fish processors and
distributors in various  parts of the world.  The competition for available
supplies, particularly for  such items as shrimp, crab, tuna, halibut,
cod and salmon increased as demand increased both  in the U. S. and
other countries.

Of primary concern to this analysis are the prices and pricing practices
in the tuna,  shrimp, crab, and catfish  industries.
                      B.  Tuna Price Effects
Prices to fishermen for the various tuna species--albacore,  skipjack,
bluefin, and yellowfin--tend to be based on the international market for
tuna, rather than U.S. markets alone.  The reason is obvious:  tuna are
found in many areas of the world and the U.S. tuna fleets fish the seven
seas for their prey.  As the fish are caught, they are frozen and placed
in the bulk-heads for storage until the fishing vessels return to their
home ports where the fish are  thawed and  put through the canning processes.

Tuna (ex-vessel) prices have risen about  56 percent from 1968 through
1972.  During this five  year period, the supply of canned tuna made
available to U.S. consumers rose 45.3 percent,  reflecting the failure
of tuna production and imports to keep pace with the rising demand.
The  upward surge of raw tuna prices was carried in the wholesale and
                                m-i

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retail sectors, which recorded a rise of 39- 3 and 31. 9 percent,  respec-
tively, over the 1968 price, (Figures III-l and III-2 and Tables III-l and
III-2).  The latter percentage increased are on canned tuna which has a
unit price considerably above that paid to fishermen for raw fish.

Canned Tuna and Fresh Meat Prices
Nutritionists declare that tuna meat is a high protein food and is often
used in place of red meat and poultry.  According to the conventional
wisdom, this ability to choose from among the various kinds  of meats
must be considered when one attempts to explain prices and their relation-
ships.   With this in mind, we found that the price on all U.S.  slaughter
cattle rose from $24. 63 to $35. 77 per cwt or 45. 2 percent from 1968
through  1972.  For the same period,  the  average per  pound retail price
of choice beef in the U. S. rose 31. 4 percent, which also fully reflects
the higher prices of all slaughter cattle.  In other words, the retail
prices for canned tuna and choice beef rose about the same percentage
31.9 and 31.4 percent, respectively.

Canned Tuna Prices and Disposable Personal Income

Disposable personal income in the U.S. was at a $591 billion  rate in
1968 compared to $795 million in 1972.  This  34. 5 percent  rise in
disposable personal income  is comparable to the increases in prices
discussed in the preceding paragraph.

Canned Tuna Prices and Changes in the Level of Prices

Both wholesale and retail prices for canned tuna have  risen substantially
in recent years,  the price rises being more drastic during 1972, Tables
III-l and III-2.  In  fact, canned tuna price rises have exceeded the averages
for all-commodity  and the all-item categories included in the Wholesale
Price Index and the Consumer Price Index of the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics.

Based on the indexes, -we found that the canne.d tuna wholesale prices rose
17. 8 percent more  than the Wholesale Price Index for All Commodities
from 1968 through  the fourth quarter  of 1972.   The calculations follow:
                                ITT-2

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Dollars/Case



 18


 17


 16


 15


 14


 13


 12


 11 1


 10
                                                                     1972
                                                                      1968
      JFMAMJ     J     AS     ON     D

                                  Month

Figure III-l. Canned tuna:  Average wholesale prices, Los Angeles,
             1968 and 1972.
                               Ill-3

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       Table III-l.  Canned ';una:  average wholesale case prices, —  Los Angeles, by months,  1968 through 1972


                                                         Month
Year   Jan.     Feb.    March     April   May    June    July    Aug.     Sept.     Oct.      Nov.     Dec.
       	  Dollars	

1968  $12.13  $12.13  $13.05     $13.05  $13.05  $13.05  $13.05  $13.05   $13.05   $13.05    $13.05   $13.30

1969   13.30   13.30   13.30      13.30   13.30   13.30    13.30    13.50    13.50    14.18     14.18    14.61

1970   14.61   14.61   14.61      14.85   14.85   14.85    15.60    15.60    15.85    16.35     16.35    16.35

1971   16.35   17.10   17.10      17.10   17.10   17.10    17.10'    17.10    17.10    17.10     17.10    17.10

1972   17.10   17.10   17.60      17.60   17.60   17.72    18.23    18.35    18.35    18.60     18.60    18.60


—  Light meat, chunk, 6 1/2 ounce, 48 cans per case.

Source: US NOAA, Fisheries of the U.S. ,  1968-1972.

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 Cents

47


46


45


44
35
34
33
            1972
                                                                          1968
         J     FMAMJ     J     A    S
                                      Month
O     N    D
   Figure III-2. Canned tuna:  Average retail prices per can,  44 cities,
                1968 and 1972.
                                 Ill-5

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      Table III-2. Canned tuna:  average retail price per can—  in 44 cities, by months, 1968 through 1972

                                                        Month
Year   Jan.     Feb.    March     April   May    June    July     Aug.    Sept.      Oct.      Nov.     Dec.
       	  cents pe r can	

1968   34.3    34.2    33.7       33.8    34.5    34.7    34.6   . 34.9    34.9      34.9     34.8      35.0

1969   35.1    35.4    35.1       35.3    35.6    35.5    35.4    35.7    35.8      36.3     36.5      36.9

1970   37.5    37.8    38.3       38.7    39.2    39.4    39.4    40.1    40.7      41.7     42.2      42.7

1971   43.3    43.6    43.9       44.3    44.2    44.4    44.2    44.2    44.3    ,  44.1     43.9      44.1

1972   44.1    44.7    45.2       45.6    45.8    45.9    45.7    45.3    45.6      46.0     46.1      46.4


—  61/2 ounce can  .

Source: U.S. NOAA, Fisheries of the U. S. ,  1968-1972

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       Average canned tuna wholesale price per case, 1972   =   $18. 00

       Average canned tuna wholesale price per case for     =    15. 27
       1968, inflated by 18. 2 percent rise in the  WPI
               ($12.91 x 118. 2%)

       Price rise not accounted for by change in  level
       of all wholesale prices             .                      $ 2. 73
                                                                   or
                                                                 17. 8 percent

Similarly,  we found that the canned tuna retail price increase exceeded the
rise in the  level of retail prices included in the Consumer Price Index.
The calculations follow:

       Average canned tuna retail price per case, 1972       =   $45. 53

       Average canned tuna retail price per case in 1968,
       inflated by 21. 8 percent rise in CPI
               £$34. 53 x 121. 8)                             =    42.06

       Price rise not accounted for by change in the
       level of all retail prices (CPI)                            $ 3. 47
                                                                   or
                                                                  8. 25 percent

Who Will Absorb the Costs of Pollution Control?

On the basis of the forecasts of the U.S.  Food and Agriculture Organization,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,  and U.S. Department of Commerce that
protein food (especially meat  and  fish) will be in continuing short supply
for many years, we believe that the pressure of demand on canned tuna
supplies  will cause prices to hold their present levels and possibly rise
faster than the general level of prices.

In view of the strength of consumer demand for canned tuna,  we also believe
that any additional production costs attributable to pollution controls will be
passed on to consumers,  provided price ceilings  do not prevent such an
action.  Should the domestic industry be barred from raising prices the
real possibility is that canners will absorb the extra costs, because the
shortage of tuna fish gives fishermen an exceptionally  strong'bargaining
position in dealing with canners.
                                 Ill-7

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There are several reasons that canneries are likely to absorb the additional
production costs arising from more rigid pollution controls; however, the
following are especially important.

       1.   Tuna fish canneries in the U. S. are few in number and it  is
            estimated that the six plants in the Terminal Island - San Diego
            area in California pack 85 to 90 percent of the U.S. output.
            Furthermore, the four  firms that own the six canneries --
            Del Monte (2),  H. J. Heinz (2), Ralston-Purina and Westgate-
            California (l)--are basing future production plans on an
            assumption  of a 5 to 7 percent annual increase  in consumer
            demand.   Such a volume of production should enable the firms
            to spread any added pollution control costs with a minimum
            effect on unit costs.

       2.   The relatively  short supplies of tuna and the strong consumer
            demand should restrain, if not stop, the  upward drift of brand
            promotional costs, in both total and per unit expenditures.
            If such restraints occur, unit marketing  costs should de-
            crease even with the present volume and decrease further
            •with projected production increases.

       3.   The tuna canneries in California, Oregon,  and  Washington
            are encountering no problems  in disposing of fish offal.
            In fact, such byproduct ope rations--sales to fish meal
            manufacturers and subsequent sale to animal and poultry
            feeders—have a positive effect on net income.  The plants
            major difficulties arise from liquid wastes associated with the
            butchering and canning operations.  Presently, such wastes
            either are dumped into the waters adjacent to each cannery or
            into city sewers which are becoming overburdened.  Signifi-
            cantly, however, each  of the municipal sewer systems is
            planning or  has underway a program to increase its capacity
            to receive and treat cannery wastes.  The cities assumption
            of the responsibility for this major waste disposal and treat-
            ment problem relieves the canneries of any major capital
            outlay for such purposes.  Hence, tuna canners generally
            will be required to invest in sewer connections and pay a
            surcharge or fee for waste disposal services.
                                     Ill-8

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Under prevailing competitive conditions, wholesalers and retailers would
likely shift more to imported canned tuna,  if necessary to maintain their
selling margins.  Since foreign tuna canners are not subject to U.S. EPA
environmental pollution controls, they may become increasingly strong
competitors for the U.S.  canned tuna market.  It is highly unlikely that
the wholesaler-retailer sector would absorb any of the added costs of
pollution controls.
                     C.  Shrimp Price Effects
The U. S.  supply of shrimp in 1968 consisted of 79. 4 million pounds,
heads off, from our domestic fisheries and 209- 3 million pounds from
imports.  Of the 388. 7 million pound total, 1 2. 1  million pounds were
exported leaving 376.6 million pounds heads  off,  available for U.S.
consumption.  Domestic production in 1972 amounted to 234.4 million
pounds, heads off,  plus 253.0 million pounds of  imports.  From the
available total supply, there was 28. 9 million pounds exported leaving
458. 5 million pounds for U.S.  consumers. This 21. 2 percent supply
increase from 1968 through 1972 was insufficient to prevent a price
rise of 35. 2 percent per pound to fishermen for the period studied.

Those most familiar with the domestic shrimp fisheries believe that
U.S. production has reached its peak or  nearly so and it will level off.
If so, our dependence  on foreign imports which have accounted for more •
than half of our  supply since 1961, should increase as our population
grows.  In fact, we are now competing strongly  for foreign supplies with
shrimp buyers who are trying to satisfy a growing demand in the more
affluent nations  of Western Europe and Asia.  This -worldwide competition
has manifested itself by raising the prices for U.S.  shrimp imports and
for domestic supplies  which lack any major price restraints imposed by
lower priced imports.

Higher prices to fishermen have been fully carried over into the wholesale
and retail markets for shrimp, (Figures III-3 and III-4 and Tables III-3
and III-4) with wholesale prices showing  a  57. 9 percent increase and retail
a 39-3 percent  increase.  As previously  stated,  disposable personal income
rose 34. 5 percent during the five years studied.

Shrimp Prices and Prices of other Competing Products

It is not entirely clear what degree  of substitution exists among shrimp
meat and  red meat or shrimp meat  and poultry,  or shrimp meat and
                                 III-9

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   Cents
220  ,
210  4

.200

190  ,

180  ,

170

160  •

150  .

140

130  .

120  ,

110  .

100
                                       1972
                                         1968
                      M
M
                                                   A
                                                                    N    D
       Figure III-3.  Shrimp average wholesale prices
                                       111-10

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       Table  III-3. Shrimp:  average wholesale prices on raw shrimp, —  Chicago, by months,  1968-1972
Year   Jan.
Feb.
March
April   May    June
Month
 July
Aug.    Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
       	Dollars	

1968  $1.06   $1.07   $1.09      $1.17   $1.24   $1.25   $1.23   $1.18   $1.25     $1.32     $1.30    $1.25

1969   1.24    1.24    1.26       1.28    1.31    1.33    1.34    1.34    1.40      1.37      1.31      1.31

1970   1.31    1.33    1.32       1.32    1.33    1.35    1.27    1.27    1.14      1.15      1.16      1.17

1971   1.19    1.28    1.34       1.40    1.52    1.58    1.55    1.62    1.56      1.55      1.73      1.80

1972   1.91    2.05    2.06       2.03    2.10    2.06    1.93    1.77    1.75      1.73      1.68      1.67


—  Large (26-30 count), brown,  5 pound package
Source: U.S.D.C., NOAA, NMFS, Fisheries of the U.S.  1968-1972.

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  Cents




130






120





110





100 .






 90 .






 80
             1972
            1968
                     M    A    M    J
     Figure IH-4. Shrimp average retail prices.
O    N    D
                                   III-12

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   Table III-4.  Shrimp:  Average retail prices raw shrimp—  , 41 cities,  by month 1968-1972

                                                          Month
Year   Jan.    Feb.    March	April   May    June    July    Aug.     Sept.	Oct.      Nov.	Dec.
       	cents	
1968   8.2.0    81.8    82.1       82.3    83.1    84.0     84.7     84.7     85.3'    85.6      87.2      88.9

1969   90.2    91.7    92.3       92.9    94.3    95.1    -95.8     96.8     97.3      98.4      98.8      99.8

1970  101.3   101.7   102.2      102.0   102.3    102.7    102.3    101.8    102.0     101.6     101.2     100.4

1971   99.9   100.9   101.3      101.8   103.0    103.9    105.4    106.1    106.8     107.1     107.8     103.1

1972  109.0   111.5   113.5      115.7   116.8    117.7    118.2    118.6    119.7     119-5     121-9     121.8


i' Frozen, 10 ounce consumer package

Source: USDC, NOAA, NMFS, Fisheries of the U.S., 1968-1972

-------
canned tuna, or shrimp meat and crab or other fishery products.  However,
we are assuming some substitutability in all cases and marked substituta-
bility for shrimp, crab and tuna meats.  It may be worthwhile, therefore,
to compare shrimp and tuna price changes at the  three levels of marketing
These follow:

                                        Percent  increase 1968-1972
       Price to:                         Shrimp            Tuna
       Fishermen                        35.2              51.3

       Wholesalers                       57.9              39-3

     .  Retailers                          39-3              31.9

One cannot avoid noting the closeness of the change in retail shrimp prices
(39- 3 percent) to the change in disposable pesonal income.

Shrimp Prices and Changes in the General Level of Prices

The relationship of changes of shrimp prices to the changes in the levels
of all wholesale commodity prices and of consumer prices, as shown in
the two Bureau of Labor Statistics indexes, gives one a measure of change.
For example, the wholesale price comparison follows:

       Average wholesale price per unit of shrimp in 1972    =   $1. 895

       Average -wholesale price per unit of shrimp in 1968
       inflated by the 18. 2 percent rise in the WPI           =    1.418
                 ($1. 20 x 118.2)

       Price rise not accounted for by the change in the level
       of all wholesale prices                               =   $ .447
                                                                 or
                                                                 33. 6 percent

We also found that the 1972 average increase in the retail price of shrimp
was in excess of other retail prices included in the Consumer Price Index.
The calculations follow:

           Average  retail price per unit of shrimp in 1972   =   $1. 169

           Average  retail price per unit of shrimp in 1968
           inflated by the 21. 8 percent rise in the CPI
                       ($. 843 x 121.8)                       =    1.027

           Price rise not accounted tor by the change in the
           level of retail prices                            =   $ - 147,
                                   111-14                           or
                                                                 13.8 percent

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Who Will Absorb the Costs of Pollution Control?

Reference  has been made to the prevailing and possible future strong demand
for meat, poultry,  and fishery products.  In addition to the strong U.S.
demand for shrimp, in all forms, Western Europe and Japan presently
are bidding competitively for available shrimp supplies.  In view of the
demand situation and the likelihood that production will not increase
sufficiently to satisfy the growing consumer demand at prices lower than
those now prevailing,  it is reasonable to expect further shrimp retail price
increases at all levels  of production and marketing.   Moreover, the demand
situation is so favorable to the shrimp industry that  it should be able to pass
any cost increases  on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

In the event that consumer price resistance should occur, the processing
sector--fresh, freezing,  and canning--would most likely have to absorb
any cost increases. Under such conditions, the impact on shrimp processing
plants and  firms would vary greatly.  Even the largest shrimp processing
operation is relatively  small, volumewise.  For example, a plant receiving
5 million pounds of live shrimp would probably have about 1. 25 million
pounds of processed product -which could be sold at $1. 25 million.  At present
1972 prices (about  $1 per pound wholesale) the probable net return on invest-
ment would not exceed  12 percent or $150,000.  Under the foregoing conditions,
a processor might  well afford an additional pollution control cost of $10,000
annually.   However, a plant receiving  .5 million pounds of live shrimp might
sell its  output of . 125  million pounds of shrimp meat for $125,000 from which
it would receive a net  return of 1 0 percent or  $12,500. Should this operator
be faced with $5,000 annually in added pollution control costs, he might choose
to sell his  plant to  a larger operator who would expand the output or he  might
abandon his plant if alternative opportunities were more profitable.  In
essence, the smaller plants and firms  likely would be affected very adversely
by any rigid pollution standards that would require both more capital and
more operating costs.

Based on DPRA's survey of shrimp processing plants in California, Oregon,
Washington and Alaska, one must conclude that there would have to be  a
complete restructuring of the shrimp processing industry unless some form
of cooperative action among processors for waste  disposal and pollution
control  is developed.

DPRA also believes that the wholesale  and retail secotrs  of the  industry are
unlikely bearers of any further production cost increases.  This sector would
turn to foreign suppliers.
                                   Ill-15

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Qualification of Assessment

DPRA is fully aware of the technological changes taking place in both the
production and marketing of shrimp.  It is possible, therefore, that new
shrimp fisheries may be found and propagation may become  feasible as
a means of maintaining and expanding existing shrimp fisheries.  If so,
the pressure of demand on existing production could be relaxed.

'This condition could lower prices at  all levels.  If such a supply improve-
ment were to occur, DPRA believes  that the fishermen and processors
would have to share the added burden of pollution control costs in the
form of lower prices.
                      D.  Crab Price Effects
The data  on U.S. Landings, imports, and utilization of the various  species
of crab--Blue, Dungeness, King and Snow--are sketchy.  However, the
available data, when supported by other information about the production
and pricing practices of the different sectors of the fisheries industry,
provide some insight into the problems of supply,  demand, and prices.

The supply of crab available for sale to U.S. consumers for the 1967-1972
period is shown in Figure III-5 and Table III-5.  The supply from U.S.
landings ranged from about 242 to 315 million pounds liveweight, annually,
plus small amounts of imported canned crab.  If we  assume that a live crab
yields about 18 percent of edible meat, the crab meat supply, including
imports,  ranged from about 43 to 57 million pounds, annually.  It is apparent
that there were much greater fluctuations in the landing by species between
1968 and  1972 than there was in total landings of all  species which rose each
year after 1968.   Another observation is the erratic performance of the
Dungeness and King species—probably the most desirable and higher priced
species--and the  fast rise in the production of Snow  crab,  a lesser-known
and less-favored specie.

DPRA estimates the 1968 average exvessel price per pound on all landed
species at 18.41 cents and the 1972 average at 20. 85 cents.  However, a
look at the .-averages shows the relatively higher exvessel prices for Dungeness
and King  crab, (Figure III-6 and Table III-6).  Both tradespeople and consumers
differentiate between the different species.  For example, Blue crab are a
product of Atlantic and Gulf waters. They are sold mainly as whole, fresh
                                  III-16

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   Million pounds
>*
I—I
ex
3
    310
    290
    270
    250
    230
         T
            1967     1968
             Imports of
          Canned Crabmeat
                                       U. S. Landings
                                         (live weight)
1969     1970     1971     1972
    Year
    Figure IH-5. Supply of crab (live wt.) and imported crab meat,
                 1967-1972.
                              111-17

-------
  Table III-5.  U.S. Crab landings and imports by years
Species
Year
Blue
Dungeness
King
Snow
All Imports Total
	 million pounds 	
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
Total
145.
109.
129.
142.
145.
145.
817.
0
5
9
4
1
4
3
42.
44.
49.
58.
42.
26.
263.
4
0
1
7
7
9
8
127.7
85.0
55.8
51.9
70.4
74.0
464.8
N.
3.
10.
14.
18.
34.
80.
A.
2
2
5
2
8
9
2.
4.
3.
2.
3.
2.
19.
16
64
44
77
72
55
28
317.
246.
248.
270.
280.
283.

26
34
44
27
12
65

Source:  USDC.NOAA, MMFS, Fisheries of the US, Annuals  1967-1972.
                                 Ill-18

-------
      Cents

       45


       40


       35


       30


       25


       20


       15   .


       10
Dun gene ss
 King
                1967  1968 1969  1970 1971  1972
                             Year

Figure  III-6. Average Exvessel prices for U.S. Crab, by species,
             by years, 1967-1972
                            111-19

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   Table III-6. Average exvessel prices for crab, 1967 through 1972

Year

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
NA =

Blue

5.93
9.86
9.39
7.02
8.59
9.76
Not available
Species
Dungeness
f *^ A
15.67
18.60
21.38
23.67
24.48
44. 10

King

11.70
30.00
29.92
26.58
35.08
34.99

Snow

N.A.
N.A.
8.93
10.97
14.00
14. 00
Source:  USDA,  NOAA, NMFS,  Fisheries of the U.S. Annuals  1967-1972.
                                    Ill-20

-------
crab or fresh meat, crab meat cakes,  etc. in the  states adjacent to the
production area.  Dungeness crab are harvested from the Pacific  Ocean,
mainly between San Francisco and Vancouver,  B.C.  Again the sales
are primarily to consumers in the Pacific Coast states as whole fresh
crab or fresh or frozen meat.   The sales area for frozen Dungeness meat
recently has widened to include all of the U.S.  and some foreign countries,
as is true for the small amount that is  sold as canned meat.  King crab
is a product of Alaskan waters and is now sold mainly as frozen meat,
in both U.S. and foreign markets.  Snow crab also is of Alaskan origin.
It is a relatively new product  commercially and is marketed largely as
frozen meat.  Its market is limited (Figure III-7 and Table III-7).

A further description of the markets for crab meat is essential to an
understanding of pricing practices and  the characteristics of demand.
DPRA estimates that fully 90  percent of all crab meat is sold to consumers
in restaurants,  either commercial or institutional.  Moreover, the  heaviest
volume  is done by specialized  seafood restaurants.  This means that about
10 percent of all crab or crab meat sales are made directly to consumers
for home use.  Such a market  structure makes the principal buyers
more sensitive to supply conditions.  For example, an oversupply (heavy
inventory)  of frozen crab meat usually  is eased by "specialing" the item
on restaurant menues and by making moderate to drastic price cuts to
restaurant buyers.  When crab meat is  in short supply and relatively high
priced,  restaurant use  substitutes except in specialty seafood restaurants
that cater to a less price conscious clientel.  The essence of our analysis
is that the  growth of the market for crab meat probably will  relate largely
to the increases  or decreases in the  away -from -home eating habits  of U.S.
consumers.

In view  of the characteristics of the markets  for the various species of
crab and an assumption that the annual crab harvest can decrease but not
increase substantially from year to year, DPRA believes that production
uncertainty is a critical factor affecting the well-being of crab fishermen and
processors.  For example, the abrupt  decline in the  harvest of King crab
after 1967  ruined several small processors who could not get crab,  even
though those who got crab prospered from a 63 percent price rise.  This
high risk factor arising from  uncertainty about the annual harvest is a
pervasive force throughout the crab processing sector.  Moreover,  the
reluctance of plant owners and managers to invest further in pollution ccontrol
is associated with their knowledge of both risk and uncertainty of  supply.

Since the only supply and price data available to us relates to crab landings
and prices to fishermen,  they were used to learning the statistical relation-
ships between the supply and exvessel price for each species.  No statistically
                                  111-21

-------
           Million Ibs.


           140  ,


           130  .

           120  .

           110  ,

           100  .

            90  ,

            80  .

            70


            60


            50

            40  ,

            30  .


            20  .

            10  ,

             0
 Blue
 King
Snow
 Dun genes s
All imports
                     67    68    69     70   71   72
                                  Year

Figure III-7. U.S.  Crab landings  and imports, by years 1968-1972
                              111-22

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                    Table III-7.  Supplies and utilization of West Coast crabs,  1957-59 average,  1960-71
Year


l'J57-V.)
average
1960
,1961
19C2
1%3
"1964
1965
'1966
lcjG7
1968
1969
1?70
3971 5/
I/ Frozf
Supplies
1 '
Dug inn inj;
stud. a




L'.O
1.0
1.6
2.1
2.2
5.0
(1.3
f.-.K
5.2
2.9
0.3
V.O
7.0

Kinj1.




J4.4
28.6
43.4
52.8
78.7
86.7
131.7
1 riO. 9
127.7
85.0
57.8
51.9
70.0
Lain!
: Dunjji!
: ness



40.h
36.2
32.7
23.4
24.9
23.0
28.9
39.7
42.4
44.0
49.1
58.7
42.6
;,,£,
- : Snow




-
_
4/
4/
-
4/
_
"/
o7i
3.2
11.2
15.5
12.7

: Total




55.0
64.8
76.1
76.2
103.6
109.7
160.6
108.9
170.2
132.2
118.1
126.1
125.3
11
Imports Total





0.7 57.7
2.5 68.3
2.2 79.9
2.3 80.6
2.2 108.0
1.7 116.4
1.5 170.4
.7 208.4
1.3 17C.7
8.6 143.7
12.1 138.5
12.4 145.5
17.6 149.9
Utilization
Canned 3/ :
Ending
stocks


T H<- -


1.6
1.6
2.1
2.2
5.0
8.3
8.8
5.2
2.9
8.3
7.0
7.0
7.4
King




5.0
10.4
15.9
19.5
26.6
24.5
34.0
46.4
41.6
9.9
7.4
5.8
6/6.0
:Dunge-
: ness



5.2
4.8
6.0
4.6
5.6
4.3
5.3
5.9
4.9
3.6
5.4
5.0
1.1
: Snow : Total




10.2
15.2
21.9
24.1
32.2
28.8
4C.8
52.3
4/ 46.5
0.1 13.6
1.4 14.2
4.4 15.2
6/1.0 8.1
Exports: Fresh £
: frozen
:consump-
: tion


45.9
51.5
55.9
54.3
70.8
79.3
120.8
150.9
127.3
2.2 119.6
1.0 116.3
2.1 • 121.2
2.3 132.1
n op. I".
I
ts)
      '2/  lYesh and I'i'ozun only.
      3/  K.in£ ot'dlj ..nly.
      4/  I.OLiS than bu.OOU pounds.
      Source:  USDC, NOAA, NMFS, Shellfish Situation and Outlook,  Annual Review,  1971

-------
significant relationship was found for any of the species.  The r  for each
was Blue  . 23, Dungeness  .45, and King . 55.  In view of the foregoing  '
results, the relationship of the total value of landings (exvessel) and
the volume of landing was  undertaken. The result here was an r^ of .19-
The 1972  landings of all species of crabs  was 281. 1  million pounds com-
pared to 238. 5 million pounds in 1968.  Despite this increase of 17. 85
percent in supply, the exvessel value of the landings rose from $20. 23
million in 1968 to $51.66 million in 1972 or 155.4 percent.   DPRA calcu-
lations indicate that only 22. 8 percent of the  exvessel price change can be
attributed to changes in the general price level.  This further strengthens
DPRA's belief that the demand for crab meat is tied closely to the away-
from-home eating business.

Who Will  Absorb the Costs of Pollution Control?

DPRA believes that the present level of disposable consumer income is
sufficient to maintain the level of demand for crab meat in all forms
despite the fact that present prices  are at a record high.  It also appears
that there is little possibility of any sustained increase in supplies of
crab meat, other than from Snow crab, -which has not been  fully accepted
by the public as a substitute for Blue, Dungeness, or King.

In view of the strong leverage of sellers,  DPRA believes that pollution control
costs will be passed on to consumers, especially if  disposable incomes
remain high and the trend toward eating away from home continues to rise.
This latter condition is especially important, because it is  reasonably easy
to pass along to consumers increases in raw materials costs when the main
part of the consumer price is for preparation and other services.  DPRA
does not have an adequate  statistical base on which to judge the impact on
fishermen and processors  in different geographical areas and for different
processing plants.  Deductively, however, its cursory study of the crab
industry leads to these tentative conclusions:

       1.   Small crab processors  should have  considerable difficulty finding
            investment capital to pay for major  plant improvements or for any
            significant operating cost increases.  Such plants may decrease
            in number rather materially.  It  is doubtful,  however., that this
            closing  of smaller plants would create any severe unemployment
            problem.  In the  first place, most of the plant workers are
            pickers who should find employment in the expanded operations
            of larger plants that continue  to operate.  Second, the landings
            of crab  should be handled more efficiently in larger  plants •
            provided there is some concentration of processing operations.
                                   II!-24

-------
       2.   Crab fishermen should not be affected in most instances.
            However .there are a few areas -where the closing of small
            plants located near a crab  fishing area will increase the time
            and cost to fishermen of getting their catch to the processor.
            In warmer climates, this transportation time factor may limit
            the "time at sea"  for small boats and stimulate the purchase
            of larger vessels with adequate refrigeration.  This latter
            condition, which is going on now  for other reasons than
            pollution control, should further  affect the number of fisher-
            men needed for the crab harvest.

       3.   Except in Alaska,  crab  processing is one  of three  parts of
            processing plant's activity.  Most plants in California,  Oregon,
            and Washington are multi-product plants,  i. e. , crab,  shrimp,
            and fish of whatever species  are  found  in local fisheries, and this
            factor would.also operate to dampen the effects on crab prices
            of pollution-associated cost increases.
                    E.   Catfish Price Effects
In contrast to tuna, crab and shrimp, the market for catfish is  small and
pricing systems are not organized.  Three types of catfish are  marketed:
pond-reared,  wild, and imported,  for which price differentials exist.  The
market is not highly structured and marketing of processed, pan-ready
catfish remains the primary problem of the industry.

Price Differentials by Catfish Types

Pond-reared catfish normally bring premium prices when compared to
"wild" or imported fish. On a "pan-ready" basis,  wholesale prices in
1970 were as  follows:

        Pond-reared catfish          -    $.72 - .75 Ib,
        Wild catfish                  -      . 58 - . 63
        Imported (frozen)            -      . 60 - . 70

The greater uniformity and better  preparation of pond catfish results in a
superior product which commands a premium price.

Market Channel Price Margins

Price margins f. o.b.  producer-wholesaler-retail, in 1969 averaged
approximately 20 percent from  producer to wholesaler and 45 percent from
wholesale to retail.
                                Ill-2 5

-------
The prices, pan-ready basis, quoted were as follows:

                    F.o.b. processor
     Type           producer or importer    Wholesaler     Retail

Pond-raised              82-99?               82-99?     119-139?
Wild                 .    60-65?               71-75?      99-109?
Imported                 50-60?               60-65?      89-99?

There is no quoted market price published for farm-reared catfish.
However, the Chicago market price on wild, fresh catfish is reported.
Prices 1961-1971 were as follows:

                 Wild, fresh catfish,       Farm-reared catfish,  pan-ready
      Year       Pan-ready,  ?/lb.         average wholesale price/? Ib.
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973 (1st 6 mos)
42.5?
43.3
41.6
43.0
50.2
59.2
60.8
62.5
62.5
60.5
59.0


                                                       79.0?
                                                       81.0
                                                       94. 0
Absorption of Increased Processing Costs
The present (1973) market for farm-reared catfish is strong and the supply
of fish is inadequate to meet the demand. However, the market tends to
be localized, the Mid-South, and to some degree the Midwest,  being the
areas where demand is  strongest.  Catfish is not accepted by consumers
to the degree true for tuna and shellfish.  Further, a substantial part of
the demand is from low-income groups and Blacks.  However,  in view .
of the strong demand there should be  opportunities to pass on to consumers
increased processing costs associated with pollution control.
                               111-26

-------
                       F.  Market Pricing Practices
Tuna Pricing
The prices paid to fishermen for the various species are based on world
prices for canned tuna.  While fishermen in the locality of a cannery
usually have a contract stating the minimum prices for the species,  actual
operating conditions determine what canners pay for a given catch from
a local fisherman.  Recently, the demand from canneries has been strong
and competitive bidding above contract levels has been commonplace.

Tuna  canners usually are especially cost conscious, particularly when
raw material prices (tuna) are rising and foreign competition is strong
as they have been for the past 18 months. However, increases in con-
sumer demand and the prices of all red meat and all species of edible
fish and  shellfish have enabled canners to raise the prices  of their canned
product,  thereby easing some of their traditional concern about raw
material (tuna) prices.  Consequently,  prices to fishermen have risen
on that part of their supply bought from independent fishermen.  Because
tuna canneries are generally large volume operations, prices also must
be reckoned in terms of their impact on profits at different levels of
cannery  output.

Fabricators, who use  tuna meat in the  preparation of frozen dinners, etc. ,
generally have not enjoyed the benefits of strengthened demand for fish
and shellfish.  Such fabricators are being restrained by competitors who
are seeking to  expand  their sales to retail food stores and  institutional
users of frozen dinners.  Price cutting to gain market entry has been
and is a  common practice.

DPRA learned  from its 1972 study of the fishery industry,  conducted for
the National Marine Fisheries Service, that the markup on canned tuna
in retail food stores generally ranges from 25 to  32 percent, with a good
turnover.  However, the markup on such items as frozen tuna pies, etc. ,
may be about the same as canned tuna, with a relatively slow turnover.
"Specialing" of most frozen  food items further reduces margins of retailers,
which is subsequently  reflected in prices paid to fabricators.

Crab and Shrimp Pricing

"Brokers" in the shellfish trade  generally are merchant-brokers or whole-
salers.  They either own or have part ownership  of the products they sell.
These fish and shellfish "brokers" and general food brokers are important
functionaries in marketing crab and shrimp,  even though there are a few
                              III-27

-------
multi-product fishery firms that operate their own sales department.
Because fresh and frozen crab and shrimp meat is highly perishable
compared to red meat,  cooperation among brokers is quite common and
necessary.  Excessive  inventories must be moved quickly.  As one
prominent broker told DPRA, "we discover prices,  we don't make them. "
In essence,  high unit value items such as fresh and frozen crab and shrimp
respond quickly to supply-consumption imbalances,  either up or down.
Hence,  DPRA, at this point in its inquiry in the crab and shrimp markets,
and without  any knowledge of price elasticity, accepts the thesis the  nature
of demand is such that sellers are especially vulnerable when they have
excessive inventories of fresh and frozen shellfish,  because their own
regular customers may not respond sufficiently to downward price changes.
It is under these conditions that brokers seek the help of other brokers to
broaden their market.  A further consideration is that supply maladjust-
ments often occur between one broker and his regular trade at a time
when other brokers may be unable to satisfy the demands of their regular
customers.

According to the information obtained by DPRA, canned crab and shrimp
also is  sold mainly by brokers, especially those who handle a full line of
canned  food.  Recognizing that both canned crab and shrimp are specialty
products, general food brokers have'a geographical coverage of food
markets that enables them to  sell such low turnover items as crab and
shrimp. Again, DPRA cannot accurately assess  supply-demand responses
without a very intensive price analysis.
                             G.  Sales Promotion
The promotion of canned tuna under various proprietary brands is extensive,
well-financed,  and it reaches all sectors of the consuming public, either
through newspapers and magazines and/or television and radio.   As a
result of such promotional activities,  "Star Kist, " and "Chicken-of-the-
Sea, " etc. , are almost as commonplace as using "Frigidaire" when
referring to all electric refrigerators.  Furthermore, consumer know-
ledge about ways to prepare tuna is  thought to be unusually good.  Some
industry people claim that "tuna fish sandwiches and casseroles,  unlike
hamburgers and hot dogs,  have no national boundary."

Except for broker brand promotion of frozen and canned crab and tuna
in trade publications directed at wholesalers and retailers, advertising
of crab and shrimp is relatively small.  None of the firms contacted by
DPRA in its 1972 study of the fisheries industry had any separate sales
promotion budget for the items discussed.
                              Ill- ?-8

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       IV.  ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
The following economic impact analysis utilizes the basic industry infor-
mation developed in Chapters I-III plus the pollution abatement technology
and costs provided by Environmental Protection Agency.  The impacts
examined include:

               Price effects
               Financial effects
               Production effects
               Employment effects
               Community  effects
               Other effects

Due to the crucial nature of potential plant s.hutdowns (financial and
production effects) to the other impacts, a disproportionate amount of
time will be devoted to the  financial and plant closure analysis.

In general, the approach taken in the impact analysis is the same as that
normally done for any feasibility capital budgeting study of new invest-
ments.  In the simplest of  terms, it is the problem of deciding whether
a commitment of time or money to a project is  worthwhile in terms of
the expected benefits derived.  This decision process is complicated by
the fact that benefits will accrue  over a period  of time and that in prac-
tice the analyst is not sufficiently clairvoyant nor physically able to re-
flect all  of the required information, which by definition must deal with
projections of the future, in the cost and benefit analysis.  In the face
of imperfect and incomplete information and time constraints, the industry
segments were reduced to  money relationships  insofar as possible and the
key non-quantifiable factors were incorporated  into the analytical thought
process  to modify the quantified data.  The latter process is particularly
important in view of the use of model plants in  the financial analysis. In
practice, actual plants will deviate from the model and these variances
will be considered in interpreting financial results based on  model plants.
                   A.   Fundamental Methodology
Much of the underlying analysis regarding prices, financial and produc-
tion effects is common to each kind of impact.  Consequently, this case
methodology is  described here .as a unit with the  specific impact interpre-
tations being discussed under the appropriate heading following this
section.

                                 IV-1

-------
The core analysis for this inquiry was based upon synthesizing physical
and financial characteristics of the various industry segments through
model or representative plants.  The estimated cash flows for these
model plants are summarized in  Chapter II.  The primary factors involved
in assessing the financial and production impact of pollution control are
profitability changes, •which are a function of the cost of pollution control
and the ability to pass along these costs  in higher prices.  Admittedly,
in reality, closure decisions are  seldom made-on a set of'well defined
common economic rules, but also include a wide range of personal values,
external forces such as the ability to obtain financing or considering the
production unit as an integrated part of a larger cost center where total
center must be considered.

Such circumstances include  but are not limited to the following factors:

        1.   There is a lack of knowledge on the part of the owner-
            operator concerning the  actual financial condition of the
            operation due to faulty or inadequate accounting  systems
            or  procedures.  This is  especially likely to occur among
            small, independent operators who do not have  effective
            cost accounting systems.

        2.   Plant and equipment are old  and fully depreciated and the
            owner has no intention of replacing or modernizing them.
            He can continue  in production as long as he can cover labor
            and materials costs and/or until the equipment deteriorates
            to an irrepairable and inoperative condition.

        3.   Opportunities for changes in the ownership structure of
            the plants (or firms)  exist through acquisition  by con-
            glomerates,  large diversified firms, or through other
            acquisition circumstances which would permit re-
            evaluation of assets or in situations where new owner-
            ship may be willing to accept temporary low returns
            with the expectation that operations can be returned
            to  profitable levels.

        4.   Personal values and goals associated with business owner-
            ship that override or ameliorate rational economic rules
            is  this complex of factors commonly  referred  to as a value
            of  psychic income.
                                IV-2

-------
        5.   The plant is a part of a larger integrated entity and it either
            uses raw materials being produced profitably in another of
            the firm's operating units wherein an assured market is
            critical or,  alternatively,  it supplies raw materials to
            another of the firm's operations wherein the source of supply
            is critical.  When the profitability of the second operation
            offsets the losses  in the first plant, the unprofitable oper-
            ation may continue indefinitely because the total enterprise
            is profitable.

        6.   The owner-operator expects that losses are temporary and
            that adverse conditions will dissipate in the future.  His
            ability to absorb short-term losses depends upon his access
            to funds, through credit or personal resources not presently
            utilized in this particular operation.

        7.   There are very low (approaching zero) opportunity costs for
            the fixed assets and for the owner-operator' s managerial
            skills and/or labor. As long as the operator can meet labor
            and  materials costs, he will continue to operate.  He may
            even operate -with  gross revenues below variable costs until
            he has exhausted his working capital and credit.

        8.   The value of the land on which the plant is located is appreci-
            ating at a rate sufficient to offset short-term losses, funds
            are  available to meet operating needs and opportunity costs
            of the' owner-opera tor's managerial skills are low.

The above factors, which may be at variance with common economic
decision rules,  are generally  associated with proprietorships and
closely held enterprises rather than publicly held corporations.

While the above factors  are present in and relevant to business decisions,
it is argued that common economic rules  are  sufficiently universal.  To
provide an useful and reliable  insight into potential business responses
to new investment decisions,  as represented by required investment in
pollution control facilities thus, economic analysis will be used as the
core analytical procedure. Given the pricing conditions,  the impact on
profitability (arid possible closure)  can be determined by simply computing
the  ROI (or any other profitability measure) under conditions of the new
price and incremental investment in pollution control.   The primary con-
sequence  of profitability changes is the impact on the plant regarding
plant shutdown rather than making the required investment in meeting
pollution control requirements.
                                  IV-3

-------
In the most fundamental case, a plant will be closed when variable ex-
penses  (Vc) are greater than revenues-(R) since by closing the plant,
losses can be avoided.  However, in practice plants continue to operate
where apparently Vc > R.   Reasons for this include:

          lack of cost accounting detail to determine when Vc > R.

          opportunity cost of labor or some other resource is less
          than market values.   This would be particularly prevalent
          in proprietorships where  the  owner considers his  labor as
          fixed.

          other personal and external financial factors.

          expectations that revenues will shortly increase to cover
          variable expenses.

A more probable  situation is the case where Vc  < R but revenues are
less than variable costs plus cash overhead expenses (TCc) -which are
fixed in the short run. In this situation a plant would likely continue
to operate as contributions are being made toward covering a portion of
these fixed cash overhead expenses.   The firm cannot operate indefinitely
under this condition, but the length of this period is  uncertain.  Basic to
this strategy of continuing operations is the firm's expectation that  re-
venues •will increase to cover cash outlay.  Factors  involved  in closure
decisions include:

          extent of capital resources.   If the owner  has other business
          interests or debt sources that will supply  capital input, the
          plant will continue.

           lack of cost accounting detail or procedures to know that  TCoR,
          particularly in multiplant or business situation.

          labor or other resources  may be considered fixed and the
          opportunity cost for these  items  is less than market value.

Identification of plants where TCc > R,  but Vc 
-------
of earnings (CV), at the firms (industry) cost of capital, is greater
than the scrap or .salvage value (S) of the sunk plant investment.  If
S > CV', the firm could realize S  in cash and reinvest and be financially
better off.  This presumes reinvesting at least at the firms (industry)
cost of capital.

Computation of C"\T involves discou&titig the futtjre earnings flow to
present worth through the general discounting function:
                      where

                      V    =    present value
                      AJJ   =    a future value  in n*" year
                      i     =    discount rate as target ROI rate
                      n    =    number of conversion products , i. e.t
                                I year, 2 years, etc»

It should be noted that a more  common measure of  rate of return is
the book rate, which measures the after-tax profits as a ratio of in-
vested capital, is net worth or sales. - These ratios should not be
viewed as a different estimate of profitability as opposed to D-CF
measures (discounted cash flow) but rather an entirely different
profitability concept.  The  reader is cautioned  not to directly compare
the DCF rates with book rates.  Although both measures will be reported
in the analyses, the book rate  is reported for informational purposes  only.

The two primary types of DCF measures of profitability are used.  One
is  called the internal rate of return or yield and is  the computed discount
rate (yield)  which produces a zero present value of the cash flow.  The
yield is the  highest rate of  interest the investor could pay  if all funds
were borrowed and the loan was  returned from cash proceeds of the
investment.  The  second DCF  measure is the net present value concept.
Rather than solve for the yield, a discount rate equivalent to the firms
cost of capital is used.  Independent investments with net present values
of above zero are accepted; those below zero are rejected.  The concept
of comparing capitalized earnings with the sunk investment value is
a variation of the  net present value method.
                               IV-5

-------
 The data input requirements for book and DCF measures are derived,
 to a large extent, from the  same basic information although the final
 inputs are handled differently for each.

 1.   Benefits
For purposes of this analysis, benefits for the book analysis have been
called after-tax income and for the DCF analysis after-tax cash proceeds.
The computation of each is shown below:
       After tax income    =     (l-T)x(R-E-I-D)


       After tax cash proceeds   =   (1 - T)x(R - E  - D)   + D

       where

               T   =    tax rate

               R   =    revenues

               E   =    expenses other than depreciation and interest

               I =  =    interest expense

               D   =    depreciation charges

Interest in the  cash proceeds computation is omitted  since  it is reflected
in the discount rate,  which is the after-tax cost of capital,  and will be  .
described below.  Depreciation  is included in the DCF measure only in
terms of its tax effect and is then added back so that  a cash flow over
time is obtained.

A tax rate of 48 percent was used throughout the analysis.  Accelerated
depreciation methods, investment credits, carry forward and carry back
provisions were not used due to  their complexity and special limitations.
It is recognized that  in some instances the effective tax  rate may be lower
in a single plant situation, but with the dominance of  multiplant firms,  the
firm's tax rate •will be close to the 48  percent rate.

Revenue, expenses,  interest and depreciation charges used were those
discussed in Chapter II  and Chapter V for pollution control facilities.
These items were assumed to constant over the period of analysis.
                                IV-6

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2.  Investment

Investment is normally thought of as outlays for fixed assets and working
capital.  However, in evaluating closure of an on-going plant where the
basic investment is sunk,  the value of that investment must be made in
terms of its  liquidation o.r salvage value, that is its opportunity cost or
shadow price.  —  Fo-r purposes of this analysis* sunk investment was taken
as the sum of equipment salvage value plus land at current market value
plus^the value  of the net working capital (current assets less current
liabilities)' tied up by the plant (see  Chapter II for-values).  This same
amount was taken as a negative investment in the terminal year.  Replacement
investment for plant maintenance was taken as equal to annual depreciation,
which corresponds to  operating policies of some managements and serves
as a good proxy for replacement in an on going business.

Investment in pollution control facilities was taken  as the estimates
provided by EPA and shown in Chapter V.  Only incremental values
were  used, to  reflect  in-place facilities.
The above discussion refers primarily to the DCF analysis.  Investment
used in estimating book rates was taken as invested capital - book value
of assets plus net working capital.  In the case of new investment, its
book rate •was estimated as 50 percent of the original value.

3^  Cost of Capital - After Tax

Return on invested capital is a fundamental notion in U.S. business.
It provides both a measure of actual performance of a firm as well
expected performance.  In this latter case, it is  also called the cost
of capital.  The cost of capital is defined as the weighted average of
the cost of each type of capital employed by the firm, in general terms
equities and interest bearing liabilities.  There is no methodology that
yields  the precise cost of capital-, but it  can be approximated  "within
reasonable bounds.

The cost of equities was estimated by two methods  -- the dividend yield
method and the earnings stock price (E/P ratio) method.  Both are
simplifications of the more complex DCF methodology.  The dividend
method is:
—  This should not be confused with a simple buy sell situation which
   .merely involves a transfer of ownership from one firm to another.
   In this instance, the  opportunity cost (shadow price) of the investment
   may take on a different value.
                                 IV-7

-------
        where
                   k =  cost of capital
                   D =  dividend yield
                   P =  stock  price
                   g =  growth

        and the E/P method is simply

                   k  =  E/P
        where
                   E  = earnings
                   P  = stock price
and is a further simplication of the first.   The latter assumes future
earnings as a level, perpetual stream.

The after tax cost of debt capital was estimated by using estimated 7. 5
percent cost of debt and multiplying by .52 -- assuming a 48 percent
tax rate.  These values were weighted by the  respective equity to total
asset and total liabilities —' to total asset ratios.

The average cost of capital for the seafoods processing industry was
estimated as follows:
                                                Growth
       Dividend Yield Plus Growth
                                                 .04
       Average cost of capital

       E/P

       Equity             .56       .060          --          .034

       Debt               .44       .039          --          .017

       Average cost of capital                                 .051

 As shown in the above computations, the estimated after-tax cost is
 5.6 to 6.7 percent. The subsequent analysis was based on 6.0 percent.
 The four percent  growth factor is roughly equal to inflation expectations.
 —  It is recognized that liabilities contain non-interest bearing liabilities,
    but its weight is believed to be an adequate proxy for the weight of debt.


                                IV-8

-------
As  shown in the above computations, the estimated after-tax cost is
5. 1 to 7.3 percent.  The subsequent analysis was based on 6.0 percent.
The four percent growth factor is roughly equal to inflation expectations.

It was assumed that,  for the seafoods processing industry, a pre-tax
cost of capital of 11.5 percent was used for evaluating new projects.

4.  Construction of the Cash Flow

A thirty-two period cash flow was used in this  analysis and was con-
structed as follows:

       1.  Sunk investment {salvage market value of fixed assets
           plus net working capital) taken in year tQ.

       2.  After tax cash proceeds taken for years tj to t™.

       3.  Annual replacement investment,  equal to annual current
           depreciation taken for years t, to t,Q.

       4.  Terminal value equal to sunk investment taken in year tjj.

       5.  Incremental pollution control investment taken in year to
           for  1977 standards and year t^ for 1983  standards.

       6.  Incremental pollution expenses taken for years t j  to t^Q
           for  1977 standards and years t_ to t^Q for 1983 standards.

       7.  Replacement investment taken on BPT incremental invest-
           ment in years  10 and 20 and on BAT incremental investment
           in year 26 based on useful lives of 10 and 20 years,  respec-
           tively.

       8.  Terminal value of pollution facilities equal to  original cost
           of land taken in year t^j.
                              IV-9

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                        B.   Price Effects
At the outset,  it must be recognized that price effects and production
effects are intertwined with one effect having an impact upon the other.
In fact, the very basis of price analysis is the premise that prices and
supplies (production) are functionally related variables which are simul-
taneously resolved.

Solution of this requires  knowledge of demand growth, price elasticities,
supply elasticities,  the degree to which regional markets exist, the degree
of dominance experienced by large firms in the industry, market  concen-
tration exhibited by both  the industry's  suppliers of inputs and purchasers
of outputs,  organization and coordination within the industry,  relation-
ship of domestic output with the world market, existence and  nature of
complementary goods, cyclical trends  in the  industry, current utilization
of capacity and,  exogenous influences upon price determination  (e. g. ,
governmental regulation).

In view of the complexity and diversity of factors involved in determin-
ation of the market price, a purely quantitative approach to the  problem
of price effects is not feasible.  Hence, the simultaneous considerations
suggested above will be made.  The judgment factor will be heavily em-
ployed in determining the supply response to  a price change and altern-
ative price  changes  to be employed.

Asa  guide to the analysis of price effects, the estimated price  required
to leave the model plant segment as well off will be computed.  The re-
quired price increase at  the firm level  will be evaluated in light of the
relationship of the model plant to the  industry and the understanding of
the competitive position of the industry.  The required price increase can
be readily computed using the DCF analysis described above, but dealing
only with the incremental pollution investment and cash proceeds.

Application of the above DCF procedure to these costs will yield the present
value of pollution control costs (i.e. , investment plus operating cost less
tax savings).  If this is known, the price increase required to pay for
pollution control can readily be calculated by the formula
                               IV-10

-------
                              (PVP)  (100)
                      X   ~  (1-T) (PVR)

       whe re:

            X   =    required percentage increase in price

           PVP =    present value of pollution control-costs

           PVR =    present value of gross revenue starting in the year
                     pollution control is imposed

Note that this formula implies that incremental profits resulting from
the price increase will be taxed at a  rate of 48 percent.



                       C.  Financial Effects
In Chapter II, the financial characteristics of model plants were presented.
These data will serve as the base point for the  analysis of financial effects
of pollution control.  The primary focus of analysis will be upon profit-
ability in the industry and the ability of the firms to secure external
capital.  Hence, it is obvious that this portion of the analysis cannot
be divorced from production effects since profit levels and the ability
to finance pollution abatement facilities will have a direct influence on
supply responses --  utilization of capacity and  plant closures.

The measures  of profitability utilized will include after-tax book rate
of return on invested capital and cash flow (after-tax profit plus deprec-
iation) will be measured.  After-tax profit as a percent of sales will
also be reported to assist in comparing financial data with standard
industrial measures.

In addition to these factors, two additional measures of economic profita-
bility will also be examined: (1) capitalized value of earnings and  (2)
present values estimated by the procedures  described in  Section A above.
Both of these measures will be calculated on pre- and post-pollution control
bases.
                                IV-11

-------
 Given these financial measurements,  the ability of the  industry to
 finance the required pollution control expenditures will be reexamined
 in light of the financial results and the information shown in Chapter II.
 This ability will vary from one industry subsector to another due to
 differential financial structures, profitability and abatement requirements.
 Hence, capital availability and cost will probably have  to be examined on
 a model plant by model plant basis.
                      D.   Production Effects
Potential production effects include reductions of capacity utilization
rates, plant closures and stagnation of industry  growth.  It is antici-
pated that reductions in capacity utilization will  be estimated via quali-
tative techniques  given the analysts' knowledge of the industry.  The
same is  true for assessing the extent to which plant  closures may be
offset by increases  in capacity utilization on the  part of plants  remaining
in operation. Data  limitations and time constraints  are expected to re-
quire that the impact of pollution control standards upon future growth
of the industry also be estimated via qualitative  methods.

The remaining effect, plant closures, is very difficult to measure
realistically as discussed above in Section A. As a starting point
in the plant closure analysis,  a shutdown model  will be employed
to indicate which  model plants should be closed, the marginal oper-
ations  and the sound operations.  These conclusions will  be based upon
the decision rule  that a plant will be closed when the net present value
of the cash flow is less than zero.

It is recognized that the use of model plants to represent  an industry is
imperfect and that not all of the relevant factors can be included in the
models.   In other words,  for any given model plant one would expect to
find some actual plants with profits lower and some  higher  than shown
for the model plant.   In a statistical sense, one  can  describe this  phe-
nomenon via distribution functions.  By  examining various publications
and through numerous discussions with knowledgeable individuals  in the
seafoods industry throughout the continental U. S.  and Alaska, typical
profit levels and variations were estimated for each  industry segment
covered  in this report.  A financial model was constructed  for each
segment which best reflects median conditions indicated by the data
attainable within the constraints of the study.  Where possible, models
for alternative plant sizes within a segment were also constructed.  In
other cases a formal model was used for only one size grouping and the
                                IV-12

-------
results were modified qualitatively to reflect impacts on other size
groupings.  It is recognized :hat the models may not exactly represent
median conditions in the in^uscry L-.gments studied.  ^.. -i^l light,  the
models should be viewed as surrogates based on the best data available
at this point.

The analysis was done under a without pollution control condition and
a with pollution control condition.   The former (and including historical
trends) was used to establish a baseline against which total closures after
pollution control were  compared,  to arrive at an estimate of closures  due
to pollution control.

Given the production effects of estimated production curtailments, plant
closings and changes in industry growth, a major  consideration arises
in the implications of these factors upon employment in the industry.
The employment effects stemming from each of these production impacts
will be  estimated.   To the extent possible, the major employee classifi-
cations involved will be examined as will the potential for re-employment.
                      F.   Community Effects
The direct impacts  of job losses upon a community are immediately ap-
parent.  However, in many cases,  plant closures and cutbacks have a
far greater impact than just the employment loss.  Multiplier effects
may result in even more unemployment. Badly needed taxes for vital
community services may dwindle.  Community pride and spirit may be
dampened.  However, in some cases, the negative  community aspects
of production effects may be very short-term in nature with the total
impact barely visible from the viewpoint of the overall community. In
a few cases, the closure of a plant  may actually be viewed as a positive
net community effect (e.g., a small plant with a high effluent load in an
area with a labor shortage).

These impact factors will be qualitatively analyzed as appropriate.
                         G.  Other Effects
Other impacts such as direct balance of payments effects will also be
included in the analysis.  This too will involve qualitative analyses.
                                 IV-13

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               V.   EFFLUENT CONTROL COSTS
Water pollution control costs used in this analysis were furnished by
the Effluent Guidelines Division of the Environmental Protection Agency.
These basic data were adapted to the types  and sizes  of plants specified
in this analysis.

Three effluent control levels were considered:

       BPT    -   Best Pollution Control Technology Currently
                   Available, to be achieved by July 1,  1977

       BAT    -   Best Available Pollution Control Technology
                   Economically Achievable, to be achieved by
                   July 1,  1983

       NSPS   -   New Source Performance Standards, apply to
                   any source for which construction starts after
                   the publication of the proposed regulations for
                   the Standards
              Description of Effluent Control Levels and Costs
The specifications and descriptions of the effluent control guidelines and
control technologies -were developed for the Effluent Guidelines Division,
EPA by Environmental Associates in their draft report. —  The proposed
technologies, capital and operating costs,  furnished by EPA for use in
this analysis are shown in Table V-l.  It is understood that these  are
tentative recommendations, made in  the draft report and are subject to
change based on comments received and further review by EPA.
—  Development Document for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and
   Standards of Performance -- Canned and Preserved Fish and Sea-
   foods Processing Industry, Draft Report, Environmental Associates ,
   Inc., July,  1973.
                               V-l

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                                                                  I/
Table V-1.  Effluent control costs, seafood processing plants,  197H —

Product
category

Catfish





Conventional
blue crab



Mechanized
blue crab



Alaskan
crab meat




Treatment
level 2/

BPT

BAT3-7


NI5PS
BPT

B\T

NSPS
B:?T

BAT

N:;PS
B:?T

B\T
NIJPS


Proposed effluent treatment
technology

Pond 1, screen and aerated lagoon
plus oxidation pond
Pond 1, scieen and aerated lagoon
plus extended aeration & clarifica-
tion
BPT plus spray irrigation
Screen plus aerated lagoon

BPT plus flow equalization, extendec
aeration and clarification
Same as BPT
Screen plus aerated lagoon

BPT plus flow equalization, extendec
aeration and clarification
Same as BPT
Screen and barge

BPT plus floatation
BPT plus in- plant operating
improvements
Capital cost 4/
Size of plant -- operating capacity

Half

$64,560

66, 712

65,313
4,260


20,551
4,260
7, 101


82,852
7, 101
236, 397

1,010, 146

269,032

Full

$97,916

100,068

99, 000
6,456.


31,204
6,456
10,760


125,892
10, 760
358,303 .

1,531,143

401,346

Twice

$148,488

151, 716

150, 640
9,813


47,430
9,813
16,355


190,452
16,355
543, 330

2,324, 160

600, 192
Daily operating & maintenance cost
Size of plant -- operating capacity

Half

$21

11

22
4


9
4
4


11
4
205

303

205

Full

$31

16

33
6


13
6
6


16
6
311

467

311

Twice

$47

25

50
9


21
9
9


25
9

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   Table V-1. (continued)

Product
category

Ala.'ikan crab,

sections

Hungeness &i

(Calif. , Ore.
Wash. )

Sout hern
shrimp


Breaded
shrimp

-"
Alaskan
shrimp


Treatment
level i/

BPT

BAT
NSPS
BPT

BAT
NSPS

PBT
BAT
NSPS

BPT
BAT
NSPS

BPT
BAT
NSPS

Proposed effluent treatment
technology

Screen and barge

BPT plus floatation
Screen,' reduction
Screen, floatation

BPT plus aerated lagoon
Same as BPT, plus in-plant
operating improvements
Screen, floatation
BPT plus aerated lagoon
Same as BPT, plus in-plant
operating improvements
Screen, foatation
BPT plus aerated lagoon
Same as BPT, plus in-plant
operating improvements
Screen, barge
BPT plus floatation
Screen, reduction
Capital cost 4/
Size of plant -- operating capacity

Half
$159,248

682, 134
313, 496
75, 320

143, 108

104, 372
136,652
177,540

144, 184
177,540
257, 164

220,580
403,500
2,046,552
794, 088

Full
$242, 100

1,034, 036
482,098
115, 132

217,352

. 158, 172
207,668
269,000

218,423
267,000
390,588

333,560
611, 168
3, 102, 108
1,204,044

Twice
$366,916

1,567,732
730,604
174,312

329,256

239,948
314, 192
407,304

331,408
407, 304
591,800

505,720
926,436
4,702, 120
1, 324,896
Daily operating & maintenance cost
Size of plant -- operating capacity

Half
$133

"°8
220
22

29

22
18
28

IS
53
66

53
297
515
589

Full
$210

315
334
35

44

35
28
42

28
80
100

80
451
781
893

Twice
$318

477
506
53

67

53
42
64

42
124
151

. 124
684
1, 183
1,353
Land
required at
full capacity
(acres)
0.2

1. 0
0.2
1.0

3.0

1. 0
1.0
13.0

1.0
1.0
12.0

1. 0
0.2
0.7
0.2
V-3
                                                                           (continued)

-------
                                                                     Table V-l.  (continued)
Product
category
Northern
pink shrimp
(Calif. ,Ore. ,
Wash. )
Tuna


Treatment
level L/
BI'T
BAT
MS PS
SFT
B •( T
NSPS
Proposed effluent treatment
technology
Screen, floatation
BPT plus aerated lagoon
Same as BPI, plus in-plant
operating improvements
Screen, floatation
BPT plus hi|jh rate trickling filter
and activated sludge
Same as BPT, plus in-plant
operating improvements
Capital cost 4/
Size of plant -- operating capacity
Half
$96,340
128,044
104,373
299, 123
1,052,000
342, 168
Full
$147, 4-1 Z
193,680
158, 172
454,072
1,595,000
518,632
Twice
222,732
293,748
239,948
638,640
2,417,000
786, 556
Daily operating & maintenance cost
Size of plant -- operating capacity
Half
13
19
13
108
333
108
Full
19
30
19
165
505 •
165 '
Twice
30
45
30
250
765
250
Land
required at
lull capacity
(acres)
1.0
8.3
1.0
0.5
8.3
0.5
 II
2/
3/
Source:  Effluen: Guidelines Division,  Environmental Protection Agency,  from materials developed by Environmental Associates, Inc.
         1971 costs adjusted to 1972 levels by DPRA by applying appropriate cost adjustment factors.

BPT = Best Pra :ticable Technology (1977)
BAT = Best Ava .lable Technology (1J83)
NSPS = New Sou:rce Pollution Standard
     Cost of BAT starting from no contrcl.  However, incremental cost of reaching BAT from BPT would be  $18, 292 for full utilization,
     $12, 761 for half utilization and $26, 900 for twice utilization.
4/   Does  not include land acquisition costs (see Ch. VI).
                                                                V-4

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The technical document describing the recommended technology for
achieving the  BPT,  BAT and NSPS guidelines was prepared for EPA
by Environmental Associates, Inc.  of Corvallis, Oregon and is titled
"Development Document for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and Standards
of Performance--Canned and Preserved Fish and Seafoods Processing
Industry," Draft Report,  July,  1973.   To avoid duplication and possible
confusion, no detailed, technical descriptions of BPT,  BAT and NSPS
guidelines are given in this report.  The interested reader is referred to
the above-mentioned document for technology descriptions.

All effluent control technologies, costs and related plant characteristics
to which these costs apply were  specified by EPA Effluent Guidelines
Division, based on the technical report of Environmental Associates,  Inc.
Since the system costs were in terms of 1971 cost levels, it was necessary
to up-date these to 1972 by the use of appropriate cost  inflators,  i. e. ,
Index of Sewage Treatment Plant Construction Costs for Investment and the
Implicit Price Inflator for GNP for operating costs.

The updated investment and operating costs for the specified product
categories and treatment levels  are shown in Table V-l.  The daily
capacities for the plants specified in the EPA treatment costs are shown
in Table V-2.  The plant sizes shown are all for large, commercial pro-
cessors and the effluent treatment costs are "single point" estimates in
that they apply specifically to the plants shown.  Limited data for other
sizes of plants were available from EPA and it was necessary to extra-
polate from these data to get estimates of treatment costs for other sizes
of plants specified in the analysis.

            Current Status of Effluent Control in the Industry

The availability and usage of municipal wastewater treatment systems
will be an important factor influencing potential closures of seafoods pro-
cessing plants.  There are no published sources of information concerning
the extent to which seafoods processors utilize municipal sewage systems.
For the purposes  of this study, estimates were made on the basis of industry
contacts and discussions with men in industry and  government who are
knowledgeable concerning conditions in their industry.   These estimates
are shown in  Table V-3.  For those plants, located on  the seacoast, which
do not have sewer connections, fishery processing wastes are usually
returned to the ocean  through outlet pipes where tidal action sweeps
the waste into the ocean.   In some instances, solids are ground before
being discharged.  In  other instances  screens are used to remove solids
which  are then disposed of in land fills  or, in a few cases, are processed
into animal feeds, pet foods or fertilizer.
                                V-5

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Table V-2.  Plant capacities,  two-shift operation,  on which effluent
                      control costs were based J.'
             Product and Category                         apaci y,
                                                 tons per day raw product 2_/


Catfish                                                    15.0
Conventional blue crab                                      6. 0
Mechanized blue crab                                      11.7
Alaskan crab I/                                           25.0
Dungeness crab (Calif. , Ore., Wash.)                      14.0
Southern shrimp                                           40. 0
Breaded shrimp                                           14.0
Alaskan shrimp                                            35.0
Northern pink shrimp (Calif. , Ore.,  Wash., New England) • 20. 0
Tuna                                                     375.0


—  Development Document for Effluent Limitation Guidelines  and Standards
   of Performance -- Canned and Preserved Fish and Seafoods Processing
   Industry,  Draft Report, Environmental Associates,  Inc.,  July 1973.


—  Capacity is for full-sized plant.

—  Alaskan crab has  two segments, (1) meat and (2) whole and sections,
     both the same size.
                                 V-6

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Table V-3.  Estimated percentage of seafoods processing plants discharging
          into municipal wastewater treatment systems,
                   by product category, 1973


                                                  Estimated percentage
                                                  plants discharging into
     Product  category    •                          municipal systems

Catfish                                                      50
Conventional blue crab                                       50
Mechanized blue crab                                        50
Alaskan crab  meat —'                                        5
Dungeness and tanner crab (Calif. ,• Ore. , Wash.)             10
Southern shrimp                         •                    50
Breaded shrimp                                             50
Alaskan shrimp                                              5
Northern pink shrimp (Calif. ,  Ore. , Wash., New England)    10
Tuna                                                        20
 y
    Alaskan crab has two segments,  (1) meat and (2) whole and sections,
    both the same size.
                                V-7

-------
In some locations in the Pacific Northwest,- where sewers are available,
cook waters are sewered but all other liquid wastes and cleanup water is
dumped into the ocean or rivers.
                                V -»

-------
                      VI.  IMPACT ANALYSIS
The imposition of effluent controls on seafood and fish processing in-
dustry will have both direct and indirect impacts on the industry,  on
consumers, on its suppliers and on communities in which plants are
located. An analysis was made, for  specified effluent control levels,
in both  quantitative and qualitative terms,  of the impacts which are
expected.

The following types of impacts have been analyzed:

               A.   Price Effects
               Bo   Financial Effects
               C.   Production Effects
               D.   Employment Effects
               F.   Community Effects
               G.   Balance-of-Trade
                         A.  Price Effects
As will be seen in the following section of this report, the role of price
effects  in this analysis is  critical.  The industry is one  with a relatively
low value added and low profit margin in relation to sales, A small
change  in the wholesale price with raw product prices staying constant
results in significant changes in industry profits.  The converse  of this
argument is  likewise true.  Hence, if an increase in processor margins
can be expected as a result  of mandatory effluent treatment practices,
the adverse economic impacts of those controls on the industry will,  in
some cases, be ameliorated.  Given the diversity of industry segments
covered in this study, it is best to examine prices  on a  segment by
segment basis.
The extent to which price increases can be passed on depends on many
factors.   These factors include essentially all demand  and supply con-
siderations,  some of which are listed below:

       1.  the number of firms in the industry
       2.  the number of plants with low cost waste treatment options
           such as municipal sewer availability
       3.  the relationship of domestic production relative to imports
       4.  possible substitution effects
       5.  the competitive structure of the industry.

                               VI-1

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Given the diversity of industry segments covered in this study, it is best
to examine prices on a segment by segment basis.   Even when approached
on this basis, time, data availability and budget constraints are sub-
stantial.  The procedure that has been adopted is therefore to calculate
the price increases required to completely ameliorate adverse production
impacts,  estimate  the closures in the absence  of any price increase and
then to reduce the calculated price effects and  estimated closures to the
level that is actually expected. The expected price  changes and the pro-
jected closures  therefore reflect  the  influence  of many factors such as the
above list of five items as well as the judgment of qualified persons.

1.  Catfish
The catfish processing industry is, for all practical purposes, still in
its infancy,,  The 1960's saw a rapid proliferation of catfish rearing and
processing enterprises as rumors of large profits spread,,  A wide
cross-sections of firms, both large and small,  rushed in.  Processor
capacity surged ahead of supplies and profit margins dropped accordingly,,
Both supplies and demand are expanding but, a full recovery from the
over-capacity problem in processing will not be forthcoming for quite
some time.


Utilization of processing capacity is currently estimated at 40-60 percent.—
Industry sources report few,  if any, firms have experienced profits
during the past two years,. Price freezes imposed by the Federal govern-
ment have further compounded the problem.  Most firms are staying
in operation in hopes of a larger supply of fish and an increasing demand.
Low plant salvage values have also probably influenced many of the
firms to try to maintain operations in hopes of a more profitable future.

Effluent treatment investment and operating costs are expected to have
a large impact on this depressed industry segment.   We feel 25-40
percent of the industry capacity could be closed without substantially
increasing processor margins (except for a few isolated cases).   Con-
sidering that small and medium plants would be most likely to  close in
face of the proposed  standards, over 50 percent of the  plants could
probably be closed without significantly raising processor margins.
Therefore, due to excessive  idle capacity in this industry segment, we are
not projecting a price i-icrease to  result from mandatory pollution abate-
ment standards.
— "Catfish Processing -- A Rising  Southern Industrys " ERS,  USDA,
   Agricultural Economic Report No. 224,  April, 1972,


                                 VI-2

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2.  Blue C rab

The blue crab industry is relatively old,  well established,  and has been
processing a rather stable volume in recent years.  The bulk of the
industry's output is sold fresh,  cold packed in nonhermetically sealed
containers or in frozen form.  A few plants produce hermetically sealed
cans.  Given the  nature of the industry and knowledge gained through
industry representatives, we feel excess capacity exists in the industry -
perhaps more than 20 percent.  Since it is  projected in the following
section,  production imports, that the  proposed effluent guidelines will
close less than 10 percent of the industry capacity which is less than the
estimated idle capacity', no price effects impacts are projected for the
blue crab industry.

3.  Southern Shrimp

The southern shrimp industry segment applies  to those plants in the
South Atlantic and Gulf areas which do not bread their final product.
Since only a  small percentage of all shrimp are processed fresh, most
of the output appears as canned or frozen.   Many of the plants producing
frozen shrimp (unbreaded) also produce breaded shrimp.  Therefore,
it is difficult to analyze southern shrimp separately from breaded
shrimp.  In placing freezer-breader plants in the two categories, we
defined a plant with over 50 percent of final product breaded as in the
breaded shrimp segment and a plant with less than 50 percent of final
product breaded as in the southern shrimp  segment.  However,  the
data available are less than adequate for such a classification scheme
and, therefore,  should be viewed as indicative  of existing plant types
rather than a tabulated estimate based upon detailed data.

If no price effects were, induced by effluent guidelines, the production
impacts on the southern shrimp industry segment would be substantial.
The role of price effects serving to ameliorate those impacts will be
highly influenced by two critical factors' (1)  the relationship between
municipal sewage charges and private industrial treatment costs for
shrimp processors and (2) the quantity and price of imported shrimp.

We feel a wholesale price increase of about 1.6 percent would be
required to pay for private effluent treatment costs under BPT guide-
lines in a large southern shrimp plant.  BAT treatment would cost
another 1 percent or more -- depending on land costs.  Although
municipal waste treatment would be expensive for these plants,  we
feel it definitely would cost less than BAT private treatment and
should be less than BPT costs.   Hence, direct  dischargers under BAT
                                VI-3

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   controls would be at a. distinct economic disadvantage when compared
   to sewered plants.  Any disparity under BPT controls would be less
   than under BAT  conditions.  Since we estimate 50 percent of the industry
   segment is sewered,  long run price adjustments induced by BAT guide-
   lines would be unlikely.

 Since shrimp imports  exceed domestic production, significant price
 changes on the domestic market could alter the industry's structure.
 Processing cost increases would encourage final processing of imported
 shrimp prior to importation.  Price increases would enable importers
 to buy more shrimp in the international market.

 Recognizing that  the southern shrimp harvest varies substantially from
 year to year (e. g. 1973 should be much lower than the past two years),
 projecting price effects is very difficult.,  Still, there is a strong demand
 for the large southern shrimp and demands on the international market
 is growing. When all factors are considered; i. e. , imports, municipal
  sewer availability,  recent demand trends and land availability, the calcu-
  lated price increase of 1. 6 percent for BPT and 1 percent or more for
  BAT would be substantially reduced.  While it is impossible  to pinpoint
  the exact price effect it is estimated that it will be sufficiently large to
  reduce plant closures under the no price cHange assumption by a factor
  of one-fourth.
4.  Tuna
In many respects, the tuna segment is different from other industry
segments studied in this report.  Tuna canning has a much higher market
concentration than does shellfish and catfish. There is a tariff quota
on canned tuna with the  quota equalling 20 percent of the previous
year's domestic pack excluding American Samoa.  The duty rate has
been declining since  1967.  Imports over the quota were dutiable at 12.5
percent ad valorem in 1972.  During the past ten years, only 1970
saw imports above the  quota.

Even though there is a  quota on canned tuna, about one-half of the in-
dustry's raw material is imported.  The record pack of 616.6 million
in 1972 consisted of 57.4 percent imported fresh and frozen tuna and
8.4 percent canned tuna for a total  of 66.2 percent imported.  Imported
raw product varies in form from  raw fish to frozen loins.
                                VI-4

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The cost of effluent treatment as a percent of sales (both computed as
net present values  of future cash flows) is fairly small for large tuna
canning plants  -- 0.2 for BPT, 0.5 for BAT  and 0.8 for BAT-A.  Net
profit on sales for  the same plant would be about 0.9 percent under median
conditions.  Even though these costs are fairly small when compared to
value of product, the added costs might be enough to encourage pre pro-
cessing at the fishing fleet level and/or form and volume of imports.

Given the import tariff quota,  a price change would seem to  be a reason-
able expectation.  However, we do not believe price changes would be
sufficient to pay the entire cost of treatment  for large plants.  Given the
substantial  economies of scale in tuna  canning and waste water treatment,
the price increase  would-pay for an even smaller portion of the medium
and small plants' waste water treatment costs.  Changes in wholesale
canned tuna prices  resulting from effluent guidelines are expected to be
roughly 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 percent for BPT, BPT + BAT and BPT + BAT-A,
respectively.   Price changes of this  magnitude will reduce plant closures by
by approximately 25 percent from those calculated assuming no price
changes.  The  price change would be borne by the consumers due to the
international competition at the ex-vessel level.
 5.  Northern Pink Shrimp

 Processors in this industry segment are primarily located in the Pacific
 Northwest and New England.  In the Northwest,  shrimp proce ssing may
 take place in a shrimp only plant or may be in conjunction with other sea-
 food processing (e. g. ,  crab or salmon).  In New England, there are a
 few plants which specialize in shrimp but, most process finfish (e. g. ,
 whiting).  In cases where shrimp is processed in conjunction with finfish,
 we have assumed the other products would have  profit margins and  effluent
 treatment costs similar to shrimp and that one treatment system would
 serve the combined effluent streams from processing all of the plants
 products.
 Using the same logic as described for Southern shrimp,  above,  we estim-
 ate a price increase of 1. 6 percent and 1 percent would be required to
 ameliorate the impacts of BPT and BAT standards respectively.  The ex-
 pected price change is  substantially less,  perhaps in the neighborhood of
 50 percent of the above and is expected to be sufficient to cover land costs
 and reduce plant closures (in the absence  of the expected price  increases)
 by one-fourth.

                                VI-5

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6.  Alaskan Shrimp

As in Washington and Oregon, shrimp processing is usually found in
shrimp only or combined shrimp - crab plants and, in some cases
finfish plants.  The finished product domestically competes with northern
pink shrimp and  the smaller sizes of southern shrimp.  Again, imports
also play an important role in price analysis.  Hence,  we conclude the
f.o.b. plant price change -will closely approximate that for northern pink
shrimp.  However,  it is very  critical to note that proposed effluent
treatment costs per dollar of sales are much higher for Alaskan shrimp
than for continental shrimp.  As a result,  price changes will probably
decrease closures from those projected under the no price change assumption
by only roughly 10 percent.

7.  Alaskan Crab

Although effluent treatment cost data were provided for two  levels of
Alaskan crab processing (i.e. , meat only and whole and sections), we
have analyzed the price effects impact on the basis of an average for the
entire industry segment.  We  feel this position is justifiable given pre-
vailing crab processing methods in Alaska.  The majority of plants prefer
to pack meat only unless processing volume exceeds picking capacity or
temporary market conditions favor whole and sections.  However,  it is
recognized  that some plants specialize in whole and sections while still
others buy frozen sections as  their raw product and sell the meat.


In examining this industry segment,  the only close substitutes found
were dungeness  and tanner crab from the  continental West Coast and
imports from Canada.  Given the  stability and location of the  blue crab
market,  it  is doubtful that this industry segment could influence the Alaskan
market appreciably.  The combined volume of West Coast dungeness and
tanner and  Canadian import potential is small enough in relation to the
Alaskan volume  that they could not dictate price.   However, the lower
effluent treatment costs on the West Coast will have a dampening affect
on upward price movements.  Also,  if prices of Alaskan crab should
rise drastically, we would likely see some cross product substitution
from crab to shrimp.
                               VI-6

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The proposed effluent treatment costs for Alaskan crab are quite high
and projected plant closures assuming no price changes are quite high (see
Table VI-2 in Section C).  Price increases required to cover all additional
costs of pollution abatement standards are approximately 2 and 5 percent
for BPT and BPT  + BAT,  respectively.   Expected price increases are
in the neighborhood of 1. 5 and 3 percent  for BPT and BPT + BAT,
respectively. This increase is expected to be of sufficient magnitude to
cover land costs and  reduce closures by  50 percent from  the level  pro-
jected in Table VI-2.

As a note of interest, if BAT technology was to include aerated lagoons,
the land requirements would increase by a factor of four-five.   The cost
of land in that case would probably place costs and plant  closures  beyond
reach for a large  portion of the Alaskan crab plants.  Also,  it  should be
noted that the BAT technology we have analyzed requires an estimated
one acre of land for a 25 TPD plant.  If  one acre of land  cannot be ob-
tained reasonably (e. g. , less  than $100,000) when extraordinary land
preparation costs are included and placing the  equipment on piling is not
feasible,  the closure impacts  could be more severe than projected.  We
would suggest that more effort needs to be devoted to the land availability
and alternative problems for Alaskan plants prior to terming this  analysis
as truly reflective of Alaskan  conditions.
 8.  Dungeness and Tanner'Crab -- Continental

 As noted in the Alaskan discussion, above, this  segment's market is
 highly influenced by Alaskan operations.  Also,  several of the West
 Coast plants  serve as final product preparation points for crab originally
 processed  in Alaska (e. g. , large blocks of-frozen meat are sawed into
 consumer package  size,  packaged and labeled).  Given the comparative
 per unit product effluent treatment costs between West Coast and Alaska,
 it is believed that the West Coast segment -will not be impacted nearly
 as severely as the Alaskan segment.  We would  predict price changes to
 be roughly equivalent to  those for the Alaskan crab segment.
                                VI-7

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9.   Price Impacts Summary

As was indicated above, the price changes required to offset the impacts
of pollution abatement standards can be assessed ceteris paribus.  The
required price changes range from less than one percent for BPT for
Blue crabs to approximately two percent for Alaskan crab. BAT
standards  would add only an additional fraction of a percent for Blue
crabs to approximately three percent for Alaskan crabs.   All other
industry segments would be included in this range,  most being approx-
imately 1.5 percent for BPT and one  percent for BAT.

The  expected price changes are however much more  difficult to assess
since the influence of many other factors must be considered.  In general,
however, the expected price changes  fall into three groups, zero expected
price changes for catfish and Blue crabs,  less than one percent for
Southern shrimp,  tuna, Northern pink and Alaskan shrimp for  BPT and
BAT and greater than 1 percent for BPT Alaskan crab and approximately
3 percent for BAT Alaskan crab.

10.   Price Controls
For the purposes of the above analysis,  it was assumed that a free
market would prevail.  It should be realized that if price controls are
in effect when firms are faced with mandatory effluent treatment costs
and the price  controls are not responsive to the added costs of production
resulting from such effluent treatment, the above analysis would be in
error and plant closure effects would be much more  severe than the esti-
mates presented below.
                       B.   Financial Effects
Financial profiles for the relevant portions of the seafood processing in-
dustry have been presented in Chapter II of this report.   Basic industry
information and data assimilated during the completion of this segment of
the study has revealed that there is a great disparity in profit rates, pro-
duction practices,  prevailing technology and expected future profitability
within and between all industry segments.
                                VI-8

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Attempts to acquire specific plant financial data has also indicated that
many plants and entire industry segments are operated on a day to day
basis influenced primarily by the availability of  raw product.  Detailed
raw product costs, production and financial data are in many cases
considered incidental to raw product availability.  The variation in
raw product availability and the failure of many plants to accurately
account for specific production costs and financial data has, in some
cases, thwarted attempts  to quantify numerous inter and intra industry
relationships.   The lack of accurate and applicable financial and pro-
duction data has necessitated a higher degree of generalization than would
be normally desirable.  For example, in most cases the data constraint
permitted the construction of only one model plant for an entire industry
segment.  The impacts of pollution abatement standards for other plants
within these segments were developed by extrapolating the model plant
impacts  using fundamental industry  relationships as reported by know-
ledgeable industry representatives and published reports.

The following subsection briefly summarizes the profitability of the in-
dustry segments considered.   (Also see  Table VI-1 in Section C).

1.   Profitability

Catfish - The 1972 data for the model  catfish processing plant show that
catfish processors are currently realizing very low returns on invested
capital.   The model catfish processing plant operating at 60 percent
capacity is realizing an after tax return on investment of less than one
percent.  This low rate of return is the  result of rising production and
raw material costs and a  general over supply of processing capacity  in this
a new and developing industry.   Current processing capacity greatly  exceeds
both the  demand for final product and the supply of raw product.  Recent
plant closures,  industry contacts and published reports concerning the
profitability of catfish processing tends to confirm the general situation
portrayed in the model plant analysis.   It is the opinion of DPRA that
if the model plant were to be adjusted  to reflect the 1973 situation, it would
show an  even lower or perhaps negative  rate of return on investment and
sales. Only the passage of time and the accompanying reduction in the
number of processing plants, increased  supply of raw product and/or a
dramatic upward shift in demand for the final product will improve the
financial prospects of catfish processors.
                                 VI-9

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Conventional and mechanized blue crabs - The model plant developed in
Chapter II depicts the financial situation for a large East Coast crab
plant processing two million pounds of live weight crabs. The after tax
return on investment for this plant is 4.8 percent.  While this  is a
satisfactory or adequate rate of return for  large plants,  it does not or
can not be generalized for the industry as a whole.  Medium and to a
greater extent small plants  tend to be  quite old and much less profitable.
Industry sources indicate that many older plants are less efficient and
are essentially only meeting expenses or selling the labor of the
proprietor.

The  shortage  of experienced crab pickers has also had an adverse effect on
on many small conventional Blue crab processing plants. There are re-
ported cases  of low plant utilization due primarily to  the inability to ac-
quire experienced pickers.  For these reasons the modern and partially
mechanized plants,  are experiencing a competitive advantage over the
small, olde r plants.

Alaskan Seafood Processors - The Alaskan seafood processors included
in the scope of this  report includes frozen and canned Alaskan  crabs and
shrimp.  The profitability of the Alaskan processor is severely dampened
by high processing and transportation costs.  This is  partially offset by
the fact that the Alaskan plants are typically quite  large and process a
diversified product line to take advantage of beneficial economies to scale.
High processing costs are also frequently offset by shipping the inter-
mediate  product to plants located on the  West Coast or in inland states
for final processing and distribution.

In general, the target pre-tax return on sales is reported to be 10 percent
with the  realized rate approximating that achieved by other West Coast
seafood processors.

West Coast Seafood Processors - While  many specific line items of
West Coast seafood processors are considerably different from Alaskan
processors, the final line, i.e. ,  return  on investment, is quite similar to
the Alaskan segment of the industry.   The differential previously favoring
Alaskan processors has diminished in recent years resulting in very com-
parable or nearly equal returns.   At the present time the data  indicates that
the return ^or W^ct Coast- anH Ala.slcan shrirrTD and crabs exceeds that
realized by East Coast and Gulf processors.

                               VI-10

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Gulf Seafood Processors - Gulf- seafood processors included in the  scope
of this study include canned  and frozen shrimp and canned and frozen crabs.
The  processing plants within this segment range from the very small single
product-process to the very large diversified and integrated processing
plants.  The profitability varies accordingly.  For example, the large
shrimp breading plant portrays a 2.8 percent after tax return on sales
while the  small shrimp breader is shown to have a 1.6 percent after tax
return on sales. In general, however, this segment is similar to others
in that the large plants can be characterized as the more profitable.  In
addition,  the shrimp freezing and breading,  and crab freezing segments
possess a slight profit advantage  over the respective canning segments.

It should  be noted, however, that there are occasionally brief periods of
time when the  larger plants  find themselves in a relatively  unfavorable
position.   For example,  in years such as 1973 when there is a drastic  re-
duction in the domestic shrimp landings,  the small plants can utilize a  greater
percentage of their  capacity due to their ability to start production lines
with a very limited  volume of raw product.  The larger plants  requiring
a  greater volume of raw product  find it undesirable, to initiate production
processes with limited raw material  supplies.  This is, however, an
      ^ ». situation.
New En0.and Shrimp Processors - A review of the data indicates that
the New England shrimp processors are quite  similar to the West Coast
shrimp processors in many respects.  The New England shrimp that is
processed is the small northern variety as is the West Coast shrimp.
Industry representatives indicate that the profit levels are also quite
comparable to the West Coast profit levels. It is, however, worthwhile
to note that a sizeable proportion of the New England  shrimp is processed
in conjunction with finfish.  In many of these plants,  shrimp represents
a production sideline during slack winter months and  does  not represent
the plant's primary product.  This increases the difficulty of assessing
the profitability as well as the potential impacts of pollution abatement
standards .

Tuna Processing Plants - The tuna processing industry consists of 3 1
plants, most of which fall into two  categories, i.e. , small or very large
processing plants with very few medium sized plants.  There are  con-
flicting reports concerning the  profitability of  these plants.  Some reports
indicate that the industry in general as well as many specific plants are
very profitable.  As of the present time,  however, we have not been able
to substantiate these reports and,  in fact, the  reverse has been true.
Industry sources report isolated cases of plants that incurred losses as
great as half a million dollars in 1972.  Other reports indicate that one
plant in the Northwest recently closed because of an unfavorable profit

                                VI- 11

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position.  Other reports indicate that still another plant located in
Southern California is  scheduled also to discontinue production in the
near future.

The model plant portrayed in Chapter II is based on data supplied by
industry sources and financial reports of tuna processing companies
and shows an after tax return on investment of 3.2 percent which is be-
lieved to adequately  represent much of the industry.   In addition to the
plants included in the above segments,  there are many plants located in
inland states that process shrimp,  crabs and tuna.  No attempt  has  been
made to include these plants in the analysis  in that almost all of these
plants receive partially processed raw product and produce specialty
items and are  therefore in many respects fundamentally  different  from
the majority of the plants included in the above segments.

A  succinct summary of cash flow and net present value data for selected
industry segments with and without pollution controls is presented in
Table VI-1.
                      C.   Production Effects


Of real and fundamental interest are the production impacts which the
inauguration of BPT and BAT effluent  controls may bring about.  Of par-
ticular  interest are potential plant closures.  As discussed in Chapter IV,
the methodology used was the economic shutdown model or model plant
analysis.  The financial burden of pollution abatement standards  were
applied to the model plants to ascertain the financial impacts.  Inference
regarding closures for each segment was drawn, based on the relation-
ship to  models as well as  factors not reflected in model plant data.  In
order to obtain tractable models, the  seafood industry was characterized
by specific  product segments.  It is recognized that many multi-product
complexes do exist and that the economics of these complexes may not be
fully reflected in the building block models  employed in this analysis.
However, it is DPRA's opinion that  the building block economics do not
greatly differ from those found in complex situations  and that use of this
procedure  will produce usable and reasonable conclusions.

It is also expedient to mention that the lack of published data and the
great variability within and between industry segments has, in some cases,
necessitated extending projected impacts on the basis of the results de-
rived from  a single model plant.
                                VI-12

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Table VI-1. Estimated cash flow and net present value for model
           plants with and without effluent controls --
             without price adjustments and without
                 considering land requirements
Present
Model Plant

Catfish
Gulf Shrimp Canner
Gulf Shrimp B reader

Gulf Shrimp Freezer
East Coast Blue Crab
Alaskan Crab
Canned
Freezer
Alaskan Shrimp
Canned
Freezer
West Coast Shrimp
Frozen
Canned
West Coast Crab
Canned
Frozen
Capacity
(TPD)
4
14
2
10
7
5

12.5
12.5

17.5
17.5

10
10

7.0
7.0
Cash
flow


9
60
15
103
27
13

80
152

151
118

64
84

44
82
Net
present
value


89
432
128
797
145
95

1, 101
1,564

1,687
1,203

612
916

442
809
BPT
Cash
flow
- - 
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 1.   Potential Plant Closures

 The underlying model plant financial parameters  relating to the closure
 analysis are shown in Table VI-1 above.  Two kinds of data are reported --
 cash flows and net present values based on investment and after tax cash
 proceeds.  The cash flows indicate the cash position of the plants.
 Clearly,  if it is negative over time the plant can not continue operations.
 Also,  if it is only slightly positive,  replacement investment might not be
 able to be met, meaning eventual plant closure.

 Net present values, computed at 6.0 percent after tax cost of capital,
 present a better long run analysis of future financial performance,  since
 they include returns over time and  replacement investment as well as a
 measure  of the  efficiency of capital use.  In interpreting net present
 values  (NPV) in Table VI- 1, values less than aero indicate that the
 firm would be financially better off by liquidating the  sunk investment and
 reinvesting where that money  could yield the firms target return on capital.

 None of the model plants fit actual plants exactly,  so  these results must
 be interpreted in light of what is  known about actual plants.  Unfortunately
 there is also conflicting data concerning the amount of pollution equipment
 in place.  While it is commonly recognized that the seafood industry does
 not, in general, have a great deal of pollution equipment in place, there
 are many areas where screening and dehydration of solids is practiced.
 At EPA direction,  however, the across the board assumption was that
 none was  in place.

 The statistical procedure used to estimate the percent closures  given
 net present value is described in the  methodology section of this  report.
 In general,  however, the assumption is that the actual net present values
 prevailing in the industry would be  distributed about the estimated model
 plant net present value.   Actual industry samples could be expected  to un-
 cover both higher and lower net present values.  Estimating the percentage
 of the plants within  the industry that possess negative net present value
 after the imposition of pollution abatement standards will produce the  ex-
 pected closures attributable to pollution abatement standards. Where
 observations were available for only  one plant size within a given segment,
 closures for other  size categories were developed by extrapolating the
 derived results and applied to other industry size segments.  The extra-
 polation procedures were based on  both reported industry data and temperted
with a priori industry information.
                                 VI-14

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The application of the above quantitative and qualitative methods resulted
in the estimated plant closure percentages listed in Table VI-2.  Table
VI-2 depicts the percent of direct discharges by size classifications that
are expected to close.  These estimates do not reflect expected price
changes or the cost  of land required for pollution abatement equipment
and lagoons.  These factors are considered at a later point in the
analysis.

The estimated baseline closures between the present and 1977 and between
1977 and 1983 are presented in Table VI-3. For most industry segments
baseline closures are expected to be nominal with a few  small,  marginal
plants leaving the industry between now and 1977 and between 1977 and
1983.  This, however,  is not true for the catfish segment where high
baseline closures are projected.  If Gulf shrimp yields are reduced by
the same magnitude  during  the next production season as they were in
the 1973 season, the same may be true for the Gulf shrimp industry.
This, however, is conjecture at this point and the baseline  closures do
not reflect this situation.

Price increase, land costs  and other qualitative aspects  were then con-
sidered to determine the expected number of plant closures. These
closure estimates were developed by considering only those plants that are
direct discharges.

 The estimated number of plant" closures which appear in Table VI-4 were
 developed by appropriately adjusting the closure percentages to reflect
 municipal sewer availability,  expected price changes, baseline closures,
 land values and requirements and other quantitative and qualitative data.
All of these factors  require a certain amount of judgment and intuition and
 without a doubt increases the likelihood for disagreement or controversy.
 The factors that affect expected closures are many and diverse.  For ex-
 ample, contacts with industry indicated that land prices (only one  of the
 factors that affects  closures) may vary from $500 to $100,000 an acre.
 Inquiries into land prices in the Gulf indicated that plants located in rural
 areas may be able to acquire land at $50.0 or less per acre. Plants located
 in urban areas could be expected to pay $10,000 or more per acre.  On the
 other hand,  land availability on Terminal Island and  other  west coast cities
 indicate that  lease or acquisition and land preparation costs could be $100,000
 per acre  or higher.  Other relevant factors have a similar degree of variability.

 It is believed, however, that the final plant closures are an accurate pro-
 jection of the likely impacts  resulting from mandatory pollution abatement
 standards for the selected  segments of the seafood processing industry.
 Further refinement of the closure estimates would require and is  indeed
 possible only with an on-site evaluation of all of the above  factors.
                                VI-15

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Table VI-2. Estimated percent plant closures without price increases and
                 •without land costs and net of base closures*
Percent of direct discharges estimated to close
Industry Segment/
Plant Size
Gulf shrimp canners
Gulf shrimp b readers
Gulf shrimp freezers
Blue crab
Catfish
Tuna
Alaskan frozen crab
Alaskan canned crab
West Coast frozen crab
West Coast canned crab
Alaskan frozen shrimp
Alaskan canned shrimp

Small
30
81
32
5
46
13
9
29
3
7
33
18
BPT only
Plant size
Medium
20
54
21
3
64
10
6
19
2
5
22
12
BPT and BAT .

Large
13
36
14
2
63
6
3
12
1
3
14
7

Small
38
88
50
20
46
40
33
97
6
23
97
97
Plant size
Me dium
26
59
33
. 14
64
39
22
74
4
15
90
65

Large
17
39
22
9
64
25
14
49
2
9
- 59
43
West Coast canned
  northern pink shrimp

West Coast frozen
  northern pink shrimp
30
17
20
11
14
39
        20
26
          13
18
 —'  Estimates indicate incremental closures above a baseline estimate (assuming
    currently prevailing effluent treatment practices).  The percent of closures
    are percent of direct discharges by size classification.  Percent on municipal
    sewers and total plant numbers by industry segment has been presented in
    Tables VII-7 and 1-3,  respectively.
                                   VI-i6

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  Table VI-3. Estimated baseline closures by industry segment


                           Current to 1977       1977 through 1983


Catfish                           15                      0*

Tuna                              1                      2

Shrimp
   Gulf
   West Coast                     5                      5
   New England
   Alaskan

Crab
   West Coast
   Alaskan crab                    9                     10
   Blue crab
__
   Baseline closures of 15 plus closures attributed to BPT standards
   eliminate 70 percent of the industry.  No baseline closures have
   been estimated from the remaining 30 percent of the industry
   beyond 1977.
                              VI-17

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Table VI-4.  Estimated number of plant closures by industry segment
    after considering baseline closures, land availability, price
           adjustments and municipal sewer availability
Industry segment
Estimated number of plant closures
BPT                   BPT 4- BAT
Tuna

Catfish
 2

 12
 10

 12
Northern pink
shrimp (Calif. ,  Ore. ,
N. Eng.) canners &
freezers combined
                           15
Southern shrimp
   Canners
   Breaders & freezers

California shrimp breaders

Alaskan shrimp canners
  & freezers

Blue crab
  3
  7
  5

  7
  6
 18
 20

 23
Dungeness & Tanner
  Crab (Calif. , Ore. ,
  Wash) Canners &
  freezers combined
Alaskan crab meat
  canners & freezers
  combined

Total
 53
                           15
125
                               VI-18

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2.   Production Curtailment

Data concerning current utilization of capacity by industry segment is
not generally available except for catfish.  To further complicate matters,
a measurement of capacity utilization at a given point in time may not be
reflective of typical conditions (e. g. ,  capacity utilization in southern
shrimp plants has been very  low this year after two near peak years)..
However, there are indications  that some over-capacity exists in nearly
all industry segments.  In segments where market concentration is higher
(e.g., tuna),  utilization of capacity probably runs  somewhat higher.

Without detailed knowledge of capacity utilization by segment, the price
analysis presented earlier was necessarily based upon subjective judgment
formed through general knowledge of the  industry segments and observa-
tions of impacts of past events.   As a result, precise estimates of pro-
duction curtailment were  not made. • With the exception of Alaskan crab
and shrimp plants, we would not predict substantial reductions in domestic
production as a result of the  proposed effluent guidelines.   This conclusion
is based upon the premise that with the projected price increases and
anticipated charges for municipal treatment of industrial effluents, some
new (probably large) plants would be  constructed.  The increase in .capacity
utilization by old plants which do not close,  added production of new plants
and, in some cases, increases in imports should make any changes in total
product consumption fairly small except for Alaskan  crab where consumption
might drop 5-10 percent under BAT guidelines.

Even though it is  perhaps  difficult and further opens the door for con-
troversy it is desirable to present the plant  closures  by size of plant.
This information  is presented in Table VI-5.


 3.   New Source Performance Standards

 New facilities on line after approximately January 1,  1974  must meet
 the NSPS guidelines for direct discharge into navigable waters.  The
 general impact of NSPS guidelines will be to slow down new plant con-
 struction rates.
                                VI-19

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Table VI-5.  Number of plant closures by size classification
Industry Segment/Standard

Tuna


BPT
BAT
Catfish


BPT
BAT
Shrimp (Northern
Pink shrimp, Southern
shrimp and Alaskan
shrimp)
BPT
BAT
Crab (Blue,
Dungeness and
Tanners and
Alaskan )
BPT
BAT
Size Classification
Small
(xL400, 000 cases
annually)

2
3
U.3,000 Ib.
live weight
annually)
3
0
(£.1, 000,000 Ib
or 50, 000 cases
annually)

18
22
(Less than 1
million Ibs live-
weight annually)

8
17
Medium
(400,000 to
1,599,000
annually)
0
2
(3,000 to 11, 999
Ibs liveweight
annually)
5
0
(1-5 million Ibs
or 50 to 100, 000
cases annually)

5
9
( 1 M to 3 M live-
Large
(1, 600,000 cases
and up annually)

0
3
(>12,000 Ib
liveweight. annually)

4
0
(>5 million Ibs
or 100, 000 cases
annually)

2
6
(Greater than 3 M
weight Ibs annually) Ibs liveweight


3
5
annually)

3
5
                            VI-20

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In terms of the  continental U. S. , these guidelines are generally not
too expensive when compared to the investment cost of a new plant --
especially after 1977 when BPT guidelines put upward pressure on
processor margins.  However,  NSPS guidelines plus anticipation of
BAT guidelines in  1983 will contribute to the relative advantage of plant
sites where municipal sewage treatment is available. There  is some
evidence that this trend is already emerging (e.g., a tuna plant on
Terminal Island is being closed and replaced by one in San Die go which
will be sewered).   In summary, in the Continental U. S. , where good
sewered sites and  reasonable NSPS  guidelines are involved, these guide-
lines are not expected to induce large economic impacts.

In Alaska however, we believe NSPS guidelines will  severely limit new
plant construction.  In most areas municipal treatment of seafood
processing wastes  is not available.  New plants would probably have to
provide private effluent treatment facilities.  Prior  to 1977, price effects
would  not be available to help pay the added cost of treatment.  Treatment
costs also appear to be much higher than the cost of equivalent technology
in the  48 states. After publication of the NSPS guidelines, it is unlikely
that any new plants would be planned in Alaska prior to  1977.

It is possible  that new Alaskan plant construction in  these industry
segments could be  halted until closures  induced by BAT guidelines
materialize.
                      D.  Employment Effects
 1.   Distribution of Employment by Plant Size

There is substantial concentration of employment in large firms in the
seafoods processing industry.  Published data are not available on each
industry and product category considered in this study,  but industry-
wide data from the Census of Manufactures provides an indication of
the situation which exists.

In the  fresh and frozen packaged fish industry,  in 1967, 79 percent of
the plants employed  less than 50 people and accounted for 29 percent
of total employment.  At the other end of the scale,  3 percent of the
plants employed over 250 people, but had 34 percent of the total number
of employees. Details, by plant size are shown in Table  VI- 6.
                                VI-21

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 Table VI-6 .  Employment in the fresh and frozen packaged fish
                 industry, by size group,  1967.1'
Number of
employees
per plant
Less than 10
10 - 49
50 - 99
100 - 249
250 - 499
500 and over
Total

Number of
establishments
178
213
65
25
11
6
497
— Source: Census of Manufactures
Table VI-7 .
Number of
employees
per plant
Le s s th-an 1 0
10 - 49
50 - 99
100 - 249
250 - 499
500 and over
Total

Number of
employees
600
5,600
4,500
3,500
3,500
3,800 .
21,400
, U. S. Department

Average per
firm
3.4
26.3
69.2
140.0
318.0
633.0
43.1
of Commerce.
Employment in the canned and cured seafood products
industry, by size group, 1967 —'

NuTiber of
establishments
109
131
46
26
4
4
320

Number of
employees
400
3, 300
3, 300
3,700
1,500
3. Aon
15, 800

Average per
firm
3.7
25.2
71.7
142.0
375.0
900. n
49 • 4
I./ Source: Census of Manufactures, U. S. Department of Commerce.

                             VI-22

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In the canned, cured and preserved seafoods industry, in 1967,  75 per-
cent of the plants employed less than 50 people and accounted for 23
percent of total employment.  In the large plant category,  3 percent of
the  total number of plants employed over 250 people, but had  33 percent
of the total number of employees.  Details,  by plant size,  are shown in
Table VI- 7.

Approximately 91  percent of the total employees in the fresh and frozen
fish industry and 89 percent in the canned seafoods industry are pro-
duction employees.

2.   Annual Earnings

Estimated average earnings,  for all employees, in fresh and frozen fish
plants,  in 1973, averaged $5, 050 in the 48 states and. $7, 550 in Alaska.
In the canned seafoods industry earnings averaged $6, 122  and $9, 152  for
the two areas. Distribution of earnings, by plant size, is shown in Table
VI-8 and VI-9 for 1973.

3.   Unemployment and Employee Earnings  Losses Associated with Plant
     Closures

The closure of seafood processing plants as a result of their inability to
bear the cost of effluent control systems would  result in substantial un-
employment and loss of earnings throughout all segments  of the industry.

In aggregate, at the BPT control level, for tuna, crab,  shrimp and cat-
fish, plant closures could result in the loss of 3, 100 jobs  and a reduction
in employee earnings of as much as $19,500, 000.  At the  BAT control
level, job losses  could go as high as  $9, 400 and employee earnings would
be  reduced as much as $67, 000, 000.  Details of these estimates of un-
employment and loss  of earnings are shown in Tables VI-10 and VI-11.

4.   Possibility of Reemployment in New Plants Being Built

There would be little  probability that new plants would be  built in the
same area to replace small or obsolete plants which were forced to close
because of their inability to add necessary  equipment to comply with water
pollution control requirements.  This is especially true for  the Alaskan
segments. It does however hold to varying degrees for the other segments
as  well.  Small seafood processing plants face substantial disadvantages

                               VI-23

-------
 Table VI-8.  Estimated annual earnings per employee,  fresh and
           frozen fish industry, 48 States and Alaska,
                     by size group,  1973JV

Number of employees
Less than 10
10 - 49
50-99
100 - 249
250 - 499
500 and over
Average
— 1967 earnings inflated by
manufacturing industry,
— Includes earnings of both
Average
48 States
$5, 132
5,099
4,760
4,560
5,440
5,268
5, 050
21
earnings —
Alaska
$7,672
7,623
7, 116
6,817
8, 132
7, 876
7,550
changes in wage rates in food
1967-1973.
production workers and management
Table VI-9. Estimated annual earnings per employee, canned and
             cured seafoods, 48 States and Alaska,
                     by size group,  1973A'
- 2/
Average earnings —
Number of employees
Less than 10
10 - 49
50 - 99
100 - 249
250 - 499
500 and over
Average
48 States
$6, 300
6,405
6, 4i6
5, 148
4, 946
7, 078
6 1 22
Alaska
$ 9,418
9,575
V,64U
7, 750
7, 394
10,582
9, 152
 —   1967 earnings inflated by changes in wage rates in food
    manufacturing industry. 1967-1973.

—  Includes  earnings  of both production workers and management
   employees.

-------
Table VI-10. Estimated unemployment and employee earnings losses resulting
           from imposition of PPT (1977) level effluent controls on
                      the seafoods processing industry
Estimated
Type and size number of
of plant closings
Tuna
Catfish -
Northern pink
shrimp (Calif. Ore.
Wash, N.Eng. ) can-
ners & freezers
combined
Southern shrimp
Canners
Dreaders &
freezers
Other shrimp
breaders
Alaskan shrimp
canners and freezers
Blue crab
Dun gene ss & Tanner
crab (Calif. ,Ore.
Wash.) Canners &
freezers combined
Alaskan crab meat
2
12
9

3
7
5
5
7
2

canners &z freezers 5
combined
Total 53
Estimated
employees
per plant
447
14
40

70
80
40
60
40
25

40
Estimated
unemploy-
ment
894
168
360

210
560
200
300
280
50

200
3,062
Estimated
arm. avg.
earnings
$7, 170
5, 100
6,000

6,000
5,000
5,000
8,250
5,000
6,000

8,250
Estimated
ann. earn-
ings lost
$6,401,000
857,000
2,160,000

1,260,000
2,800,000
1,000,000
2,475,000 .
1,400,000
300,000

1,650,000
$20,303,000
                               ^    _      _____	j.	_	_._ -_ —u u v w .*. v ••• V J.M.J.*.£TV U

of BPT controls in 1977, closures not  associated with pollution control factors.
                                  VI-25

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         Table VI-11.  Estimated unemployment and employee earnings
            losses  resulting from imposition of BPT-KBAT effluent
                  controls on the  seafoods processing industry
Estimated
Type and size number of
of plant closings
Tuna - 10
Catfish - 12
Northern pink
shrimp (Calif. , Ore. 15
N.Eng. ) canners
Si freezers combined
Southern shrimp
Canners 6
B readers &
freezers 18
Other shrimp
b readers 3
Alaskan shrimp
canners & freezers 20
Blue crab 23
Dun ge ness & Tanner
Crab (Calif. , Ore. , 3
Wash) Canners &
freezers combined
Alaskan crab meat 15
canners & freezers
combined
Total 124
Estimated
employees
per plant
447
14

40



70

80

40

60
40

25


40



Estimated
unemploy-
ment
4,470
168

600



490

1,440

120

1,200
920

75


600


9,373
Estimated
ann. avg.
earnings
$7, 170
5, 100

6,000



6,000

5,000

5,000

8,250
5,000

6,000


8,250


--
Estimated
ann. earn-
ings lost
$32,050,000
857,000

3,600,000



2,940,000

7,200,000

600,000

9,900,000
4, 600,000

450,000


4,950,000


$66,727,000
I/
   11^ for tuna processors.  Closures on the basis of treatment strategy BAT + BPT -•
   II are  estimated to be a total of 6.
_' These closures are the same as shown for BPT since BPT guidelines would close
   all remaining direct discharge plants in 1977.
                                    VI-26

-------
due to economies  of scale in processing and water pollution control oper-
ations. As a result, it is doubtful that these small plants would be  re-
placed since medium or large plants which might survive could absorb the
added volume represented by these small plants.   Obsolete plants are most
likely to persist in areas where the fishing and seafood processing industries
are declining and  as a result there would be little inducement to replace
plants in these areas.

5.  Absorption of  Laid-off Employees by Other Plants

Little opportunity would exist for absorption of laid-off employees by other
plants in the same area.  Although the  seafoods industry is geographically
dispersed,  total employment in the industry has been declining during the
past ten years as  larger, more-highly-automated plants have been built
which require fewer employees per thousand pounds of seafood processed.
In addition, many plants operate only on a single-shift basis  at less than 100
percent of capacity.  The volume represented  by these plants could be ab-
sorbed by  remaining plants without taking on additional employees.

There is the possibility that some plants could increase imports  of  partially
processed raw materials, reorganize their production lines and concentrate
on final processing only.  To the extent that this occurs,  some employees
would be retained and the adverse unemployment impacts partially ameliorated.
In general, however, this is expected to have a minor influence on unemploy-
ment impacts.

6.  Secondary Unemployment Effects

The closure of seafood processing plants could result  in some unemployment
among fishermen  who depended on these plants to provide a market for the
fish and shellfish  which they caught.  The implication  of the impact of plant
closures on fishermen are discussed in more detail in the section dealing
with community impacts.

Several other considerations or qualifications  should be introduced  at this
juncture.   These facors are briefly mentioned below.

Cooperative treatment or barging efforts by contiguous plants could result
in a substantial reduction in waste treatment costs.  Improved by-product
recovery  could also, and in some cases, substantially lower the  net effluent
treatment  costs.  In addition, provisions have been made (Section 301-C)
•which would allow the administration to modify BAT effluent guidelines on a
case  by case  basis.  All of these factors,  jointly or separately, could result
in a substantial reduction in plant closures, unemployment impacts and com-
munity impacts.  The uncertainty and nebulous nature of these considerations
prohibits a detailed analysis at this point in time.   The important point to be
gleaned from the above factors is that to the extent that each or all  occur, the
estimated  impacts will have to be modified accordingly.

                                VI-27

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                            E. Community Effects


  The seafoods processing industry is concentrated in coastal communities
  from Alaska to Florida to Maine.  The pond catfish processing industry
  is concentrated in the Mid-South.

  Seafood processing plants are located primarily in small towns and large
  cities.   There are large numbers of small towns scattered up and down
  the coasts where  fishing and seafood  processing is the major industry.
  This  is particularly true in Alaska.   However,  many major freezers and
  canners are located in major cities such as Seattle, San Francisco,
  Los Angeles, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa, Miami, etc.

  Distribution of processors by size of community is  shown in Table VI- 12.


Table VI-12. Distribution of seafood processors by size of city  in which located
    Size of City

   (population)

Less than 1, 000
 1,000  -    4,999
 5,000  -    9,999
10,000  -  24,999
23, 000 and over
    Total
                                 Percentage of total processors
                                      .  .                  ,  , Pond catfish
                       Seafood canners—  Seafood freezers — processors
                              27
                              22
                               6
                               7
                              38
                             100
  7
 22
  6
  6
 59
100
  13
  59
  13
  9
	6
100
  — Includes tuna,  shrimp and crab processors.
 Although the closing of a major canner or freezer reprsents a substantial
 economic loss to any community, the impact in a major city such as
 Los Angeles, San Diego or Tampa, would not be as  disastrous as would
 the closing of a much smaller plant in a location such as Kodia.k,  Alaska
 (population under  3, 000) where processing of fishery products is the
 primary local  industry.  There are 13 shellfish processors in Kodiak and
 unless they can individually or collectively solve their effluent control
 problems at a  cost which will permit  them to stay in business, plant
 closures could wipe  out the economic base of Kodiak. Although the situation
 in Kodiak is dramatic because of the  concentration of seafood processing
                                VI-28

-------
at this location and the lack of alternative employment opportunities,
the impact of plant closures would be equally severe  in large numbers
of isolated communities where the landing and processing of fish and
shellfish represents a major  segment of the local economy.

As shown in  Table  VI- 12,  49  percent of the  seafood canners and 29 percent
of the freezers are located in towns  of less  than 5, 000 population.   The
impact on these small communities would be severe.  Small to medium
canners and  freezers employ 40-80 workers.  In spite of the fact that
the processing of seafood is seasonal,  the closure of a plant employing
60 workers could mean the loss of $360, 000 in plant payroll plus $30, 000
in management salaries.  This could equal 6-8 percent of the total
community income. If loss of income to fishermen is added, the impact
becomes greater.

The catfish processing industry is already in difficulty.   Most processors
are operating at  less than 50  percent of capacity.   However, at present
the demand for frozen catfish fillets is strong and the low utilization rate
is primarily the  result of limitations in the  supply of fish for processing.
However, if  as a result of required investments in effluent control systems,
these processors cease operations,  the impact would be greatest on low
income families  in the  Mid-South where the  seasonal labor required by
catfish processing  provides a welcome supplement to family incomes.
Since much of this  income is  spent in the local community, it would have
a direct effect on the level  of business activity in affected areas.

Impacts on Suppliers

Closure of seafoods processing plants will have  a direct impact on the
suppliers of  raw fish-(fishermen and pond catfish  producers).   Because
of the perishable nature of  fish and shellfish and because of the high wast-
age in processing operations, the seafoods processing industry is supply
oriented.   This  is particularly true of the shellfish and pond catfish
industries.   If plants close, fishermen and catfish producers will,  in
many instances,  encounter severe problems in finding alternative outlets
for their production.

Pond  catfish are hauled live in tank trucks to processing plants. Plants
are located in areas where there is a concentration of production.  If
catfish producers are  forced  to haul their fish greater distances because
of nearby plant closures, the increased cost of hauling would result in
substantial reductions in grower incomes.   The  industry is already faced
with a shortage  of fish  for processing and if catfish farmers reduced
production in response to lower returns, this problem would become in-
creasingly severe.
                                  VI-29

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A similar situation would exist in the crab fishing industry.  Crab are
normally landed live and are cooked and cleaned immediately after land-
ing.  Although it would be possible  to cook and clean crab where landed
and then ship chilled carcasses to processing plants for meat extraction
and canning or freezing, the transportation costs involved in shipping
iced crab,  which would be 60-70  percent waste,  would add substantially
to product  cost and would probably  be reflected in lower ex-vessel prices.
While it would be possible to land crab  at other ports,  where processing
plants would exist, the additional time at sea would reduce production
per boat and lower returns to crab  fishermen.

Although the market problem would not be as severe for shrimp, fisher-
men would still be  faced with the problem of delivering chilled,  heads-off
shrimp greater distances to the remaining processors. This would add
transportation costs, whether by truck  or by boat, would increase product
costs and reduce returns to fishermen.  As an alternative, shrimp proc-
essors  might increase their imports of frozen shrimp  and rely less  on
domestic landings.   However, increasing world demand for shrimp,
particularly in Japan, has resulted in greater competition for shrimp
supplies throughout the world.

The closure of tuna processing plants in any given location would have a
lesser impact on fishermen than was true for the other products considered
in this study.  Tuna are  normally caught in distant waters.  The tuna fleet
is at  sea for extended periods and delivery of the tuna  catch to alternative
locations does not  constitute as serious  a problem  as  it does to shrimp
or  crab fishermen.

While it is impossible to investigate community impacts for all possible
plant closures, it is possible to present a few generalizations beyond what
has been discussed above.  Rather  than attempting  to pinpoint the location
of all expected closures,  we have briefly investigated the  location charac-
teristic by industry segment to provide additional insight into probable
community impacts.

The location characteristics of a random sample of plants in the Blue
Crab, Gulf Coast and west coast segments produced the location char-
acteristic distribution presented in Table VI-13.
                                  VI-30

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                          Table VI- 13.   Plant location and size of local population
Percent of Plants by City Size
250 or
Industry Segment less
Blue Crab 40
Gulf Coast Processors
West Coast
250 to
999
40
20
20
1,000 to 5,000 to 10,000 to
4,999 9,999 49,999
15 5
10

50,000 to 100,000
99,999 and over

30 40
80
Total
100
100
IOC
I
OO

-------
Eighty percent of the plants in the blue crab sample •were found to be
located in communities with less than 1,000 persons.  On the other
hand, 80 percent of the plants in the west coast  sample were located
in communities of 100,000 or larger.   The Gulf Coast segment revealed
that 70 percent of the plants were located in communities with  a popu-
lation base of 50, 000 or greater while the remainder were located in
communities with less than 5,000 persons.

This information (along with other information presented above) per-
mits a few other observations and summary statements concerning the
relative impacts by segment.   They are as follows:

       1.   The  community impacts are expected to be rather  substantial
            in the Alaskan segment which has  a  relatively large number
            of closures in small  communities.

       2.   The west coast  plants in general are located in larger  com-
            munities where the projected impacts for the most  part
            could be easily  absorbed.

       3.   The Gulf Coast  segment,  while impacted less than the  blue
            crab segment are located in larger cities where the economic
            readjustment would be enhanced by a broader economic base.

       4.   The blue crab segment which can be characterized as having
            a large number of plants in small  communities is expected
            to experience a relatively minor impact.  There will,  how-
            ever, in all likelihood be some clustering  of plant  closures in
            very small communities.

       5.   While the expected plant closures  in the catfish segment are
            relatively large, the  geographical dispersion of these plants
            is great.  This will tend to ameliorate to a substantial degree
            the expected community impacts.
                                VI-32

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                 F.  Impact on Foreign Trade
The impact of substantial plant closures associated with the imposition
of effluent guidelines on the fisheries processing industry could result
in driving additional processing overseas.  This would be particularly
true for tuna, crab and shrimp.  The farm- raised catfish industry is
not as greatly affected by imports since these fish are sold mainly as
fresh or frozen fillets whereas imports of catfish go primarily into
fabricated fish sticks and other similar items.

Tuna
The total supply of canned tuna in the United States has increased from
392 million pounds in 1962 to 673 million in 1972,  a gain of 72 percent.
Approximately 91.6 percent of the total supply was packed in the United
States.  However,  of this total, 63 percent was represented by imports
of fresh or frozen tuna purchased from foreign fishermen by U.S.
canners.  Imports  of canned tuna are relatively unimportant and nor-
mally account for 4 to 5 percent  of the total supply.  Canned imports
are subject to tariff quotas equivalent to no  more than 20 percent of
the previous year's domestic pack.  Canned imports have varied between
50 and 73 million pounds and in 1972 were 56, 513, 000 pounds, equal to
8.4 percent of the total U.S. supply.  In only one year, 1970, have
imports above quota come in (902, 000 pounds).  The tariff quota system
does not limit total imports but provides for a differential duty, quota
imports being levied 6 percent ad valorem in 1972 as opposed to 12.5
percent duty on above-quota imports. Japan is the principal supplier of
canned tuna imported into the  United States. The low level of imports
in 1972 was the result of two major factors, FDA detention of large
quantities of Japanese product because of problems  associated with de-
composition and Japanese currency revaluation.  With the prospect of a
continued strong  demand for canned tuna by the American consumer,
and if U.S.  pack  is reduced as the result of plant closures associated
with the imposition of effluent  guidelines,  it is anticipated the U.S.  canned
tuna prices will rise still further and that these higher prices will attract
increased imports  of canned tuna in spite  of higher duties for shipments
above tariff quota levels.   In  addition, it is possible that a higher proportion
of tuna imported  for canning in the United States, may come in the form  of
loins (frozen or cooked) as partial processing on board ships or  overseas
could increase.  Another possibility would be the establishment of overseas
canning operations by major U. S. tuna packers.
                               VI-33

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Shrimp

Consumption of shrimp in the United States has nearly doubled since
I960.  Prices reached record levels in 1972, but demand continued
strong.  Of the total 1972 supply of 487. 5 million pounds (heads-off),
253. 1 million,  or 52 percent came from imports.  Composition of
imports, 1964 and 1972, was as follows:

                                         Percent of total imports
  Form imported                     1964                   1972

Shell-on headless                      72.7                   56.8
Peeled, not breaded                    19.6                   42.1
Peeled, breaded                         0.3                    0.6
Peeled, canned                          1.9                    0.5
Not classified                            5.5                     -

  Total                               100.0                   100.0

These  data show a definite swing toward the importation of a higher pro-
portion of processed or partially processed shrimp. In particular, the
relative quantity of peeled shrimp imported has more than doubled
since 1964. Most of these shrimp enter as heads-off,  peeled frozen
shrimp in blocks and are thawed,  de-veined if necessary, individually
quick frozen and packaged in consumer or institutional packages.
These  shrimp may be frozen raw, cooked  or breaded.  Although the
volume of breaded shrimp imported more  than doubled 1964-1972 (from
0.5 million pounds to 1. 3 million pounds), the total volume is still
only 0.5 percent of total imports.  Imports of peeled canned  shrimp
have remained'fairly stable at around 2. 5  to 3.5 million pounds. Con-
sumption of canned shrimp in the United States is small, Alaska has
potential to expand canning operations, and little change in imports of
canned shrimp is  expected.

Mexico is the most important source of shrimp imported into the United
States,  supplying 80.7 million pounds (36 percent of total imports) in
1972.  Central American countries shipped 33.5 million pounds to the
U.S.,  South America -- 43.9 million, and India --  33.5 million. A
potentially important shrimp fishery may exist off the coast of West
Africa, but this source has not been highly developed.  However,
recent exploratory efforts by the Japanese indicate  that West African
waters may produce large quantities of shrimp in the future.
                              VI-34

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Closure of U.S. shrimp processors as the result of the imposition
of effluent limitations would accelerate the existing trend towards
increased processing (peeling and de-veining) of shrimp either on
board ships or in land-based processing plants  located outside the
United States.  Shrimp  landed by U.S. vessels would continue to be
processed by those U.S. firms which would remain in operation.

Given the expected maintenance of a strong demand for  shrimp in
the United States and normal yields from U.S. shrimp fisheries, the
principal impact of closure of substantial numbers of U.S. shrimp
processors would be to encourage more processing overseas.  The
total volume of shrimp  imports would not change materially from
that which would have existed otherwise,  but the trend toward the
importation of an increasing proportion of peeled and de-veined shrimp
could be  substantially accelerated.

Crab
In contrast to tuna and shrimp,  imports of crab for processing in the
United States have been relatively small.  Most crabs are landed live
and cooked immediately prior to processing. Imports of Blue crabs
to the East Coast are negligible.  However,  imports of West Coast
crabs (King, Snow and Dungeness) have increased rapidly since 1967.
In 1967 imports were only 1. 3 million pounds.  Imports jumped to
8.6 million  pounds in 1968 and in 1971 were 17.6 million pounds.  Most
of the imported crabmeat comes from the Canadian Northwest.  Imports
of canned crabmeat (mainly from Japan) have decreased during the
past ten years,  from a high of 5.3 million pounds in 1963 and were 2.5
million pounds in 1972, which was,  however, equal to 51 percent of
the total U.S. supply of canned  crabmeat.  The U.S. pack of canned
crabmeat has also declined,  from 11 million pounds in 1966 to 2.4
million'in 1972.

It is doubtful that closure of  U.S. crab canners would result in sub-
stantial increases in canned  crab imports.  The demand for canned crab
is small and has been decreasing.  However, should crab freezers in
Alaska, Washington,  Oregon and California  be forced out by effluent
guideline  requirements, it is probable  that,  in the absence of equivalent
effluent controls by Canada,  expansion of crab processing on the West
Coast of Canada could occur with the bulk of the crabmeat destined
for export to the United States.
                                VI- 35

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The  supply of crab has not increased during the past six years.  Since
1968, combined U.S.  landings (live weight) have varied between 238.5
and 281. 1 million pounds.  Crab does not share the popular demand for
either shrimp or tuna and crab imports will be tied to the total level
of consumer demand for crab.

Catfish
The closure of catfish processing plants would have very little impact
on foreign trade in farm-raised catfish.  Catfish imports (mainly from
the Amazon River area of Brazil) do not serve the same market as
farm-raised catfish fillets. Therefore, it is believed that  curtailment
of catfish processing would have virtually no effect on catfish imports
to the U.S.

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                 VII.   LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS
                      A.   General Accuracy
The seafoods  processing industry is complex in terms of the number,
ownership,  location and type and size of plants.  Variations in the .
seasonal pattern of operations, extreme variation in climatic conditions
(Kodiak, Alaska to Key West,  Florida) and substantial differences in
raw product characteristics all contribute to the complexity of this
industry.

Detailed information on size distribution by types of plants  is not avail-
able, nor is information concerning processing costs and returns.  Very
little research has been conducted, by any source, on the economics of
seafoods processing.  As a result,  the financial aspects of  the analysis,
were, of necessity, based on synthesized costs and returns for "repre-
sentative" types and sizes of model plants.  These costs and returns were
developed from a variety of unpublished and published sources and from
contacts made with firms in the  industry.  They are, as a result, indica-
tive only and  not representative  of any one plant or firm, but are believed
to be useful for the purposes of this analysis.

Published information from the Internal Revenue Service, such refer-
ences as Standard and Poors,  Dun and Bradstreet, and other sources
of data on financial ratios and  financial performance were used as checks
on the reasonableness of results obtained in the financial analysis of
representative plants.

Throughout the study, an effort was made to evaluate the data available
and to update  these materials wherever possible.  Checks were made with
informed  sources in both industry and government to help insure  that data
were as reliable and representative as possible.  In some instances,  e. g. ,
catfish data,  visits were made to offices of agencies  responsible  for develop-
ment of these statistics and access  was permitted to unpublished  data which
was necessary for background purposes or to provide data for  recent periods.

Although processing cost data, information on  investments  and other
"representative plant"  cost and returns information must be considered
approximate,  general information on these items was obtained from a
substantial  number of processors and when classified and cross-checked,
showed reasonable degrees of consistency.
                                VII-1

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Water pollution control costs were furnished by EPA,  Effluent Guidelines
Division.  These costs were developed for a variety of industry categories
and subcategories and effluent treatment systems.  It was necessary to
adapt these effluent control costs to the types and sizes of model plants
used in this analysis.  In addition,  because there was presented a range
of waste treatment techniques, and associated costs, purported to be
adequate for meeting specified effluent limits under varying conditions,
it was necessary to arbitrarily select one waste treatment technology for
each industry segment and treatment level.   This selection was made
with the assistance  of EPA.  Given this designated  treatment technology,
it was necessary to adapt the effluent treatment costs to the types and
sizes of model plants used in the analysis.  In addition, it was necessary
to make specific assumptions regarding the  current status of effluent
treatment and disposal in the seafoods processing industry.  These  assump-
tions are dexcribed in detail in the "Critical Assumptions" section of this
report.  The validity of these assumptions and  of the effluent control costs
which result introduce an additional element  of uncertainty and possible
inaccuracy.

However,  given the accuracy of the pollution control costs as being
acceptable, it is believed that the analysis represents a usefully ac-
curate evaluation of the  economic impact of the proposed effluent guide-
lines on the seafoods processing industry.
                         B.   Range of Error
 Different data series and different sections of the analysis will have
 different possible ranges of error.  Estimated error ranges as an
 average for the industry are as follows:

                                                           Error Range
                                                                %
        1.  Information regarding the organization and
            structure of the industry, number,  location
            and size of plants , and other information
            descriptive of industry segments                  +_ 10

        2.  Price information for products and  raw
            materials                                        + 10

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                                                         Error Range
       3.   Cost information for plant investments and
            operating costs                                  +_  15

       4.   Financial information concerning the sea-
            foods processing industry                       +  15

       5.   Salvage values of plants and equipment           _+  20

       6.   Water pollution control costs                     Unknown

       7.   Present status of effluent control in the
            industry                                         +  20

                     C.   Critical Assumptions

The  complex of types and sizes of seafoods processing plants, processes
involved and effluent control levels and systems proposed to meet these
levels,  all required the making of a series  of assumptions required to
keep the analysis within manageable limits  and to specify "representative"
situations which would  permit further development of industry-wide im-
pacts.  These assumptions fall into seven general areas :

        1.   Assumptions regarding industry structure
       2.   Assumptions concerning raw material and product prices
       3.   Assumptions concerning " representative" model plants
       4.   Assumptions concerning water pollution control costs
       5.   Assumptions concerning current status of effluent disposal
            systems in use by the industry
       6.   Assumptions concerning the salvage value of plants and
            equipment
       7.   Assumptions concerning "shutdown" decisions.

1.   Industry Structure - The seafoods processing industry is complex
and  geographically scattered.  Although this project •was concerned only
with tuna,  shrimp, crab and farm-raised catfish, many of the firms and
plants in the industry can and/or freeze a much wider variety of fish and
shellfish.  Many of these plants  are parts of diversified seafoods pro-
cessing forms or of general food processing companies.  Restricting
the analysis to the  four species mentioned above introduces an element
of artificiality insofar as a description of industry structure is  concerned,
Although the National Marine Fisheries Service maintains lists of seafoods
canning plants,  no  comparable information exists for the freezing industry.
As a result, it -was necessary to develop much of the industry structure
information from primary sources.
                                 VII-3

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Substantial differences develop when "official" or published lists or
directories  of seafood processing firms are compared with reports from
firms and individuals located in the areas of concern.  For example,
review of materials from the National Marine Fisheries Service (canners
only) and directories of frozen food processors indicated that there were
only 7 Blue  Crab processors in Maryland.   However, conversations with
processors  in the area indicated that thre may be as many as 36 firms
processing Blue Crab in Maryland.  It is recognized that many of these
"processors" may be very small operators who clean or  pick crab and
sell chilled crab to local markets or restaurants in non-hermetically
sealed containers.  The same situation undoubtedly exists along the Gulf
Coast and on the West Coast.   Listings for Alaska,  of commercial fisheries
processors,  obtained from the State of Alaska,  Department of Fish and
Game, are believed to be reasonably complete.  Since the projected number
of plant closures is related to the number of plants in operation, a con-
certed effort was  made to make the estimates of plant numbers as complete
as possible.  Although some  small operators have undoubtedly been over-
looked, it is believed that the processor numbers shown  represent a high
proportion of commercial processing capacity.

2.   Raw Material and Product Prices - There is no single source which
publishes satisfactory prices for raw fish and shellfish and processed
seafood products.  Major reliance was placed on contacts with firms  in
the seafoods processing industry, but prices for both raw and processed
products were checked with both published and unpublished price infor-
mation from the National Marine Fisheries Service. Prices  of both fish
and processed seafoods products have increased sharply during the past
year, along with the prices of all other protein foods.  A particular effort
was made to insure that raw material and processed product  prices were
on a comparable basis for  the types  of products and for the time periods
considered.

3.   "Representative" Model Plants - No single plant is "representative"
of the complex of types  and sizes of plants which constitute the various
segments of the seafoods processing industry.  Although specific types
of plants (e.g. tuna canners, shrimp breaders, etc.) will have certain
items of equipment in common, the plants  will vary greatly regarding
size, construction,  equipment combinations and layout and sites.  For
example, shrimp processors are tound at coastal areas and at inland
locations such as  Phoenix, Arizona.  Plants are located  on piers built
out into the  bay, on converted ship hulls and at shore-based sites.  A
distinction often made relates to "shore-based" U.S. "ship-based" plants.
They vary in size from  small,  simple operations to large,  mechanized
processing plants.

-------
The technical information on effluent control systems and costs, supplied
by EPA, was based on specified types and sizes of plants.  As a result,
it was  necessary to pattern the impact analysis around those types of
plants  included in the technical study of effluent control systems.

The "model" plants used in this analysis are described in Chapter VI.
The types of plants used were as follows:
1.   Tuna
2.  Southern shrimp
3.  Shrimp breader
Plant processing. 1, 600, 000 cases of canned
tuna per year,  operating season 250 days,
single shift basis

a.  Canner processing  14 tons per day of
raw product, 110 day season,  single shift
basis

b.  Freezer processing 7 tons per day of
raw product, 260 day season,  single shift
basis

a.  Small plant, processing 2 tons per day
raw product, 260 day operating year,  single
shift basis
4.  Alaskan shrimp
b.  Large plant, processing 10 tons per day
raw product, 260 day operating year,  single
shift basis

Combination canning and freezing plant
processing  17.5 tons per day raw product,
130 day season, single shift basis
5.  Northern pink shrimp   Combination canning and freezing plant pro-
    (Calif. ,  Ore. , Wash. ,  cessing 10 tons per day raw product,  130
    New England)           day season,  single shift basis
6.  Alaskan crab meat
a.  Canner processing 12.5 tons per day
raw product,  150 day season, single shift
basis

b.  Freezer processing  12. 5 tons per day
raw product,  150 day season, single shift
basis, 75 percent meat,  25 percent whole
and'sections
                                    VII-5

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                           Single product canning plant and
7.  Dungeness and         single product freezing plant
      Tanner Crab         processing 7 tons per day, 150 day season,
      (Calif. , Ore. ,        single shift basis
      Wash.)

8.  Blue crab              Combination conventional and mechanized
                           plant processing 5 tons per day raw product
                           into canned and fresh chilled product, 200
                           day season,  single shift basis

9.  Catfish                 Processes fresh and frozen catfish fillets,
                           4 tons per day raw product, operates at
                           60  percent of capacity, 250 day season,
                           single shift basis

It is recognized that this classification of plants does  not approach the
variety of types and sizes of plants which comprise these  segments of
the seafoods processing industry.   In reality, each plant is individually
engineered and equipped to meet the requirements of a particular site
and location.  In addition, the product mix will vary from plant to plant
and from time to time within a  given plant.  However,  it is believed
that the types of plants used in  the analysis serve to illustrate the nature
and the severity of the economic impact which would result from the
imposition of proposed effluent limitation guidelines on the tuna, shrimp,
crab and farm-catfish processing industries.

4.  Conversion Factors -  Conversion factors  for converting from raw
product to processed product,  e.g. raw crab  to crab meat, tuna to  canned
tuna,  etc. are critical in that a small change  in the conversion factor
results in a substantial change  in the yield of processed product and affects
plant  returns accordingly.  Conversion factors used were obtained from
both industry and published sources and are believed to be representative
for the types of raw and processed products with which this project is
concerned.

5.  Effluent Control Costs - Effluent control systems  and costs for  systems
specified were supplied by the  Effluent Guidelines Division of EPA.  Critic-
al limitations regarding the applicability of these  effluent control systems
include the following:

      a.   The physical availability and the  cost of land where lagoons
          are proposed as a part of the effluent treatment system.

      b.   The validity of extrapolating costs to obtain estimates for
          treatment systems for plants of various sizes  required
          beyond the limits  of  cost data provided by EPA.

                                     VII-6

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      c.   The application of treatment costs based on 2-shift opera-
          tions  (as supplied by EPA) to plant situations involving
          single shift days.  The calculations used considered treat-
          ment  costs as related to total tons processed per day
          regardless of the number  of shifts.  For some types of
          non-biologic treatment systems,  this could result in an
          understatement of treatment costs as capacities of certain
          items of equipment,  e.g.  screens, might not be adequate
          to handle the volume specified on a one-shift basis.

      d.   The effluent treatment systems costs assumed that the
          plants had none of the required equipment  currently in
          place.  However, it is known that some  plants do have
          screening devices, grinders, etc. which are being used
          to process effluent prior to its discharge from the plant and
          in some cases to recover  solid materials for utilization as
          by-products or  for disposal as solid wastes in landfills,  etc.
          To the extent that such equipment is in place in existing
          plants,  the incremental cost of achieving BPT or BAT
          controls would be reduced.

6.  Current Status of Municipal  Treatment in the Industry - Only limited
information is available concerning the number, location and types of
seafoods processing plants discharging into municipal sewage systems.
As a result,  it was necessary to develop estimates of the number of
plants served by municipal sewer systems.  These estimates were made
by personal visits to plants and by telephone contacts with processors
and others knowledgeable  concerning effluent control practices at specific
locations.  The  estimates are shown in Table V-3. Although these
estimates are not based on a complete survey of all of the plants in each
area and product category, it is believed that contacts made in each area
were adequate to provide a useful estimate  of the importance of municipal
waste treatment system connections to the seafood processing industry in
1973.  In some  situations,  e.g., Astoria,  Oregon  and Terminal Island,
California,  expanded and/or  improved sewage treatment facilities are
either planned or  actually under construction.  These new facilities will
relieve the situation in those locations as they are completed and come
on stream.

7.  Salvage Values -  Salvage values of buildings,  equipment and land
will vary greatly from one location to another and  with the type and condi-
tions of structures and equipment.
                                     VII- 7

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In order to avoid problems which would be inherent in attempting to
establish differential salvage values, a set of "standard" assumptions
concerning salvage values was developed:

      a.  Land was salvaged at its estimated 1972 value.

      b.  Buildings and equipment were salvaged at a net amount
          equivalent to 10 percent of their 1972 replacement value.

      c.  Net operating capital was recovered intact.

8.  "Shutdown"  Decisions - The general purpose of the "shutdown" model
is to examine the profitability of the model plants before and after the
imposition of effluent limitation guidelines,  to determine the probability
of forced closures which would result and to calculate the price changes
required to cover the added effluent control costs.  The model requires
assumptions relative to numerous factors and are described in detail
in previous sections  of this report.  Assumptions used, while arbitrary,
were made on the basis of the best information which could be developed
regarding conditions prevailing in the seafoods processing industry.
                                    VII-8

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BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA '• Import No. ; |2.
SHEET . EPA-230/ 1-73-025 |
4. li.le and Subtitle
Economic Afialysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines
Seafoods Processing Industry
7. Authorfe)
R.' E. Seltzer, D. L. Jordening, J. K. Allwood
9. Performing Organization. Name and Address
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.
P. O. Box 727, 200 Research Drive
Manhattan, Kansas 66502
12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
Environmental Protection Agency
Waterside Mall
4th & M Streets, S. W.
Washington, D. C. 20460
3. Recipient's Accession No.
S* Report Date
October, 1973
6.
8- Performing Organization Kept.
No.
10. Project/'Task/U'ork Unit .No.
Task Order No. 2
11. Contract/Grant No.
Contract No. 68-01-153:
13. Type or' Report St. Period
Covered
Final Report
14.
IS. Supplementary Notes
    stracts   The economic impacts of proposed effluent guidelines on the seafoods pro-
  cessing industry are assessed.  The analysis is confined to tuna, shrimp, crab and
  farm-reared catfish processing plants and includes  classification and description of
  types of firms and plants, financial profiles, investment and  operating  costs and profits
  for selected types of model plants, evaluation of pricing  relationships and analytical
  procedures.  The financial impact of proposed  effluent treatment technology was
  assessed in terms of prices, industry returns, volume of production, community
  impacts and international trade.
            It is  estimated that BPT standards will close 53 seafood processing plants.
  This  includes  12  catfish,  2 tuna, 25 shrimp and 14 crab processing plants.  Ithas
  further been estimated that BAT standards  will close 8 tuna,  37 shrimp and 27 crab
  processing plants.
17. Key U'ords and Document Analysis.  17a. Descriptors
  Water pollution, economic analysis,  seafoods, tuna, shrimp,  crab, catfish, pollution,
  industrial wastes, economic demand,  supply,  prices, feasibility analysis ,  discounted
  cash flow
17b. Idcntifiers/Open-Ended Terms
                             02 Agriculture,  B-Agriculture Economics
                             05 Behavioral and Social Sciences,  C-Economics
17c. COSATI F;c!J/C.r..up
IS. Avjujoilicy iratcr.KTu





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