United States-Canada
Air Quality Agreement
Progress Report
1 9
Printed on paper that contains at
least 20% postc
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United States-Canada
Air Quality Agreement
Progress Report
1 996
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Your Comments on this
Report Would be Appreciated
Article DC of the Canada-United States Air Quality
Agreement assigns the International Joint Commission
the responsibility of inviting comments on this report.
The Commission will prepare a synthesis of the comments
received for the Governments of the United States and
Canada and for public release. You may send written com-
ments to either of the following addresses:
Secretary, United States Section
International Joint Commission
1250 23rd Street, NW, Suite 100
Washington, DC 20440
Fax: (202) 736-9015
Email: bevacquaf@ijc.achilles.net
Secretary, Canadian Section
International Joint Commission
100 Metcalfe Street
Ottawa, Ontario KIP 5M1
Fax: (613) 993-5583
Email: terrienm@ijc.achilles.net
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Contents
Page
Executive Summary 1
Section I Introduction 7
History of the Agreement 7
Public Comment on the 1994 Progress Report 7
Air Quality Committee: Current Activities 8
\
Section II Progress: Specific Programs and Objectives 9
Overview 9
Implementation of Control Programs 9
Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Visibility Protection 16
New Issues Under the Control Programs 19
Progress Under Article V of the Air Quality Agreement 19
Market-Based Instruments 20
Assessment of the Costs, Benefits, and Effectiveness of Clean Air Controls 21
Section III Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities
and Economic Research 23
Emissions Inventories 23
Deposition Monitoring and Prediction 26
Ozone Monitoring, Trends, and Research 32
Aquatic Effects Research and Monitoring 35
Forest Health Monitoring 41
Visibility 43
Effects on Materials 46
Human Health 47
Quality Assurance 50
Control Technologies 51
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Page
Section IV Additional Areas of Cooperation 53
Ground-Level Ozone 53
Air Toxics 56
Section V Conclusion 59
Section VI Five-Year Review of the Air Quality Agreement 61
Introduction 61
Article-by-Article Review 61
Emerging Issues 64
Summary of Public Comments 64
Conclusion 65
Bibliography 67
Science 67
Human Health 70
Appendix A (United States-Canada Air Quality Committee) 71
/
Appendix B 75
Agreement Between the Government of the United States and the
Government of Canada on Air Quality 75
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Contents
List of Figures
Page
Figure 1. U.S. SO2 Emissions Reductions at Phase I Affected Utility Units 13
Figure 2. SO2 Emissions 24
Figure 3. NOX Emissions 25
Figure 4. VOC Emissions 26
Figures 5-8. Spatial Distributions of "Wet Sulfate and Nitrate Deposition in 1992 and 1993 28
Figure 9. Sea Salt Corrected SO2 Wet Deposition (kg/ha/yr) 29
Figure 10. NO3 Wet Deposition (kg/ha/yr) 30
Figure 11. Normalized Annual SO2 Emissions and Sulfate Wet Deposition,
Sea Salt Corrected, Over Eastern North America 30
Figure 12. Normalized Annual NOX Emissions and Nitrate Wet Deposition Over
Eastern North America 30
Figure 13. Median 1994 SO2 Air Concentrations at CAPMoN and CASTNet Sites 31
Figure 14. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition, 1990 31
Figure 15. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition, 2010 31
Figure 16. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition,
Full CAAA Implementation, 2010, Percent Reduction From 1990 Control 32
Figure 17. Number of Hours with Ozone Exceedances Greater Than 82 ppb, 1980-1995,
in Four Canadian Areas 33
Figure 18. Trend in Average Second Maximum Values (in ppm) for Ozone
(by Region for Trends Sites) 34
Figure 19. Time Series of Annual Averages of Sulfate and ANC (|leq/l) 36
Figure 20. Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation Begun at the End of 1989 with Addition of
Dry Ammonium Sulfate to Western Part of Watershed 39
Figure 21. Relationship Between the Number of Fish Species and pH, 188 Lakes From the
Outaouais and Abitibi Hydrographic Regions of Quebec 39
Figure 22. Ozone Injury to Plants 43
Figure 23. Map of U.S. Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments
(IMPROVE) Sites 45
Figure 24. Summary of Season Trends in Visibility Impairment in the United States 46
Figure 25. Respiratory Admissions vs. Sulfates in Ontario Hospitals 48
Figure 26. Results of Lung Exposure of Children to High Aerosol Activity in Canadian and
U.S. Communities 48
Figure 27. Actual Respiratory Admissions in Ontario 49
Figure 28. OTAG and ROSA Regions 54
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List of Tables
Page
Table 1. Canada-United States SC>2 Emissions Reduction Goals 9
Table 2. Total SC«2 Emissions by Provinces in Eastern Canada 10
Table 3. Emissions Estimates for Canada and the United States, 1994 24
Table 4. Projections for Year 2040 for Percentage of Waters With Either Chronic
Acidity or High Potential for Chronic Acidity 38
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Contents
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
Acronym/
Abbreviation
AIRMoN
ANC
AQC
AQMD
ARNEWS
ATS
CAA
CAAA
CAPMoN
CASTNet
CCT
CEC
GEM
CEPA
CO
CO2
DOE
DDT
EPA
ETS
GAW
GCVTC
IADN
IFCS
IJC
I/M
IMPROVE
kg/ha/yr
km
kT
LEV
LRTAP
Full name
Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network
acid neutralizing capacity
Air Quality Committee
Air Quality Management District
Acid Rain National Early Warning System
Allowance Tracking System
Clean Air Act
Clean Air Act Amendments
Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network
Clean Air Status and Trends Network
Clean Coal Technology
Commission for Environmental Cooperation
continuous emission monitoring or monitors
Canadian Environmental Protection Act
carbon monoxide
carbon dioxide
U.S. Department of Energy
dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
emissions tracking system
Global Atmospheric Watch
Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission
Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network
International Forum on Chemical Safety
International Joint Commission
inspection and maintenance
Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments
kilograms per hectare per year
kilometers
kilotonnes
low-emission vehicle
UN Economic Commission for Europe Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
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Acronym/
Abbreviation
MOU
N2O
NAAEC
NAAQS
NADP/NTN
NAMS
NAPAP
NAPS
NARSTO
NOX
N02
NTIS
OTAG
OTC
OTR
PAMS
PCBs
PM
PM2.5
POPs
ppb
ppm
PSD
RADM
RECLAIM
ROSA
SAMI
SLAMS
SO2
TAP
ug/m3
UN
UNEP
voc
Full
name
Memorandum of Understanding
nitrous oxide
North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network
National Air Monitoring Stations
National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program
National Air Pollution Surveillance
North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone
nitrogen oxide
nitrogen dioxide
National Technical Information Service
Ozone Transport Assessment Group
Ozone Transport Commission
Ozone Transport Region
Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations
polychlorinated biphenyls
paniculate matter
paniculate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter
persistent organic pollutants
parts per billion
parts per million
prevention of significant deterioration
Regional Acid Deposition Model
Regional Clean Air Initiatives Market
Regional Ozone Study Area
Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative
State and Local Air Monitoring Stations
sulfur dioxide
Tracking and Analysis Framework
micrograms per cubic meter
United Nations
United Nations Environment Program
volatile organic compound
Vi
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Executive Summary
This report builds on the 1992 and 1994
Canada/United States Air Quality Agreement
Progress Reports. The report reviews the acid rain
control programs, emissions forecasts, and scientific
research in both countries; discusses new areas of concern,
such as ground-level ozone (smog) and air toxics; and
includes the first five-year review of the Air Quality
Agreement.
Annex 1 Commitments
Sulfur Dioxide
Acid rain, the principal bilateral air quality issue for
many years, is the primary focus of cooperation under the
Air Quality Agreement; however, ground-level ozone, air
toxics, and inhalable particles are becoming increasingly
important areas of concern. Canada fully implemented its
Acid Rain Control Program in 1994, and the United
States has made substantial progress implementing its pro-
gram, which will largely be completed by 2000.
Canada's sulfur dioxide (SOj) reduction program has
been successful. Canada has achieved a 54-percent
decrease in SOj emissions in the 7 eastern provinces from
1980 levels. Emissions decreased from 3.8 million tonnes
in 1980 to 1.7 million tonnes in 1994, significantly sur-
passing the emissions goal for eastern Canada. All major
sources targeted by the program have completed techno-
logical improvements or programs to reduce SC>2
emissions and to ensure that the 2.3-million-tonne cap
will be respected until 2000.
Canada is also committed to permanently capping its
national SC>2 emissions at 3.2 million tonnes beginning in
2000. Canada is currently 16 percent under this cap, with
national emissions for 1994 reported at 2.7 million
tonnes. Current projections beyond 2000 indicate that
this cap will be met for some time. A national multi-
stakeholder group, however, is developing a National
Strategy on Acidifying Emissions to evaluate the need for
further emission reductions.
The United States began its first compliance year in
1995 for Phase I of the Acid Rain Program. SC>2 emis-
sions declined sharply in 1995 at the original Phase I 263
electric utility units. Emissions at these large, mostly coal-
burning facilities were nearly 5 million tons below 1980
levels, representing a decline in emissions at these units of
more than 50 percent since 1980. Emissions reductions at
these Phase I units are 95 percent of total 1995 emissions
reductions. Additional 1995 reductions of 300,000 tons
were achieved by 182 substitution and compensating
units—Phase II units that chose to comply with Phase I
requirements early. Actual SC>2 emissions levels for all
utility units in Phase I decreased to 5.3 million tons from
1980 levels of 10.9 million tons. This represents a reduc-
tion of 3.4 million tons more than allowable levels of 8.7
million tons for the first compliance year. In addition, the
first annual reconciliation of SC»2 allowances and emis-
sions for Phase I units reported that all Phase I units met
their compliance obligations—SO2 allowances matched
SO2 emissions generated in 1995. No excess emissions
were reported for any Phase I utility units.
Nitrogen Oxides
Canada and the United States committed to reductions
of nitrogen oxides (NOJ in Annex 1 of the Agreement.
The reduction goals amount to about 10 percent of
national NOX emissions for both countries by 2000:
100,000 tonnes in Canada and 2 million tons in the
United States. Both countries are concerned about the
role of nitrogen compounds not only in the formation of
ground-level ozone but also in acidification processes.
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In Canada, measures are in place to reduce NOX emis-
sions from stationary sources by 125,000 tonnes by 2000,
fulfilling Canada's commitments. The measures include,
among others, national emissions limits for new fossil-
fueled power plants; retrofits at several existing power
plants; new source standards for boilers, process heaters,
and cement kilns; and a reconstruction of the INCO met-
als smelter at Sudbury, Ontario.
Canada's "Next Steps" Smog Management Plan, to be
developed by 1997, will call for additional measures to
reduce NOX emissions.
The United States is undertaking a combination of
measures for stationary and mobile sources to reduce NOX
emissions under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments
(CAAA). NOX emissions are expected to be reduced by
more than 2 million tons by 2000. A major part of these
reductions in NOX emissions is expected to be achieved
through Acid Rain Program reductions of emissions from
coal-fired electric power plants.
Compliance Monitoring
Almost all major Canadian sources now have imple-
mented either continuous emission monitoring (GEM) or
methods of comparable effectiveness. Canada is in sub-
stantial compliance with its obligations in Annex 1.
In the United States, all operating Phase I and Phase II
sources have installed CEMs or other acceptable alterna-
tives. There is an unprecedented level of accuracy in the
CEMs installed by utilities and nearly full compliance
with emissions reporting requirements. Some 98 percent
of installed monitors at Phase I units passed the required
10-percent relative accuracy standard; 93 percent achieved
relative accuracy standards of less than 7.5 percent. In
addition, monitors used at Phase I units were in operation
more than 95 percent of the time.
Prevention of Significant
Deterioration and Visibility
Protection
The U.S. Prevention of Significant Deterioration
(PSD)/visibility program was designed to keep areas with
clean air clean. Since the 1994 Progress Report, the
United States has continued to model and monitor the
effects of long-range transport of air pollution on visibility
in national parks and wilderness areas, the main areas to
be protected in its PSD program.
To fulfill its PSD obligations, Canada believes that its
Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (proclaimed
1995), together with provincial permitting and assessment
regulations and maximum desirable air quality objectives
(the benchmark for assessment of new sources), provides
protection comparable to the U.S. PSD program.
Discussions are under way between the two governments
on the compatibility of the Canadian approach with the
U.S. program.
Annex 2 Commitments
Monitoring Networks
Canada and the United States are continuing to inte-
grate data from acidic deposition monitoring networks to
ensure that data collected under both countries' programs
are comparable and credible. The networks monitor wet
deposition and measure air concentrations used to esti-
mate dry deposition. The major networks, the Canadian
Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network, the U.S.
National Dry Deposition Network, and the U.S. National
Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network
are providing comprehensive data collection in North
America.
Each country has its own approach to monitoring
ground-level ozone concentrations. The two governments
have been cooperating in analyzing significant ozone
episodes that occurred in the summer of 1995 and are
exploring other opportunities for cooperation.
Emissions Inventories
Both countries continue to work together to ensure
emissions inventory data consistency and coordination in
emissions trends analysis. Canada and the United States
have been updating and improving their estimates for the
1990 emissions inventory using the latest information
obtained from states and provinces, source measurements,
and special study findings. The expanded use of GEM in
both countries is expected to improve the accuracy and
timeliness of emission data. Numerous tools also have
been developed to analyze emissions trends and forecasts.
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Executive Summar
The countries are continuing to meet semiannually to
explore opportunities for enhanced cooperation.
Scientific and Technical
Cooperation
Since the last progress report, the two governments have
continued to cooperate in atmospheric modeling, deposi-
tion monitoring, emissions inventories, effects research
and monitoring, control technologies, and market-based
initiatives.
Key atmospheric modeling and deposition monitoring
findings and developments include the following:
* Wet sulfate deposition (a measure of acidification from
802) continues to decrease, correlated with SO2 emis-
sions reductions. Wet nitrate deposition (a measure of
acidification from NOX) shows no consistent change.
Models support the deposition changes based on sulfur
reduction and also support the important role of nitro-
gen in continued acidification and in ozone formation
and control.
* Precipitation acidity has shown no consistent change.
This is believed to be the result of a widespread decline
in calcium and magnesium concentrations in
precipitation.
* A U.S. report using the Regional Acid Deposition
Model predicts that most of the northeastern United
States and lower eastern Canada will experience a 30-
percent or greater reduction in total sulfur deposition
by 2010.
Significant findings on aquatic ecosystems trends
include the following:
* Decreases in sulfur deposition have been accompanied
by decreases in sulfate concentrations of surface waters
in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.
Decreases in surface-water sulfate led to limited
improvements in water quality (e.g., a few waters show
increases in pH or decreased acidity (increased acid neu-
tralizing capacity (ANC)). The declining sulfate
concentrations are often accompanied by declining con-
centrations of base cations, including calcium,
magnesium, and potassium.
* Results from a field experiment and modeling studies
indicate that continued nitrogen deposition at current
levels could result, in the long term, in an erosion of the
benefits of sulfur emissions controls in both countries.
Experimental addition of nitrogen to a forested water-
shed in Maine shows quick responses to watershed
nitrogen saturation and associated decreases in pH and
ANC. A watershed model projects that, depending on
time to watershed nitrogen saturation, atmospheric
nitrogen deposition to some eastern U.S. lakes and
streams might play an important role in future lake and
stream acidification.
* Continued lake monitoring in the Adirondacks has
shown a recent decrease in lake nitrate concentrations.
This is a significant change from prior data during the
1980s, which had indicated increasing nitrate concen-
trations. These data indicate the value of continuous
monitoring of changes in surface-water chemistry.
Canadian and U.S. forest health monitoring continues
to find no evidence of widespread forest decline associated
with acidic deposition. The eastern North American
hardwood forest is generally in good health. There is evi-
dence, however, that acidic deposition can cause
discernible effects in forests suffering from other forms of
stress, including drought or high-elevation temperature
extremes. For example, there is birch decline near
Canada's Bay of Fundy due to acidic fog and red spruce
decline at high elevations. In addition, symptoms of
ozone damage were found in 1995 on ozone-sensitive
plant species on more that 50 percent of 105 forested
ozone monitoring sites throughout the northeastern
United States.
In the area of visibility, Canada and the United States
are continuing to merge visibility data sets and to cooper-
ate in using models to predict future changes in visibility.
Regarding effects on materials, research into the effects
of acid rain on marble and limestone will continue to
improve predictive capability.
Health effects research indicates a growing consensus
that acidic aerosols and other types of particulate matter
(PM) have an adverse health effect on large segments of
the population. Since the last progress report, epidemio-
logical studies of the links between health effects and
ambient levels of PM have been further validated.
Controlled human exposure studies of ozone and acidic
aerosols indicate acute effects on lung function; these
studies support epidemiological findings. Chronic expo-
sure to acidic aerosols has been associated with decline in
lung function in children, but it is not known if the
decline is permanent. Ozone exposure related to acid
summer haze is associated with increased respiratory
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hospital admissions and increased hospital emergency-
room visits for respiratory causes.
Regarding quality assurance, bilateral field and
laboratory intercomparisons continue to confirm the
compatibility of Canadian and U.S. air quality data and to
demonstrate steady improvement in laboratory
performance.
In technical activities, the two governments are contin-
uing to study, develop, and exchange information on new
clean air technologies. In particular, the United States will
fund more than $7 billion in projects under the Clean
Coal Technology Program over the course of the decade.
The United States continues to use market-based mech-
anisms to achieve air pollution reduction at a lower
societal cost. A report issued by the General Accounting
Office in December 1994 estimated that with full
interutility trading under the Acid Rain Program's
allowance trading system, the annualized cost of SC>2
reductions should be less than $2 billion, compared to an
annualized cost of compliance without trading of $4.9 bil-
lion. In addition, numerous innovative market-incentive
programs are being explored and developed by individual
states and regional groupings of states, including
California's South Coast Air Quality Management
District, the Los Angeles Clean Air Initiatives Market, the
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC), and the Ozone
Transport Assessment Group (OTAG).
Economic Research
Canada and the United States continue to exchange
information on the costs and benefits of clean air controls.
A 1995 study on the health benefits of reducing vehicle
emissions in Canada found that the benefits ranged from
Can$ll billion to Can$30 billion over a 24-year period.
In addition, a 1995 study conducted by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency estimated that the U.S.
Acid Rain Program will lead to health benefits in the order
of $12-40 billion per year by 2010 as a result of reducing
levels of sulfate particles in the air.
Article V Notification
Since the fall of 1994, the two countries have been noti-
fying each other of proposed actions, activities, or projects
that could likely cause significant transboundary air pollu-
tion. Canada has sent eight formal notifications to the
United States, while the United States has sent two to
Canada. The United States has also notified Canada of
other actions under the Clean Air Act that addressed air
pollution.
Additional Areas of
Cooperation
Ground-Level Ozone
Ground-level ozone is the main component of smog. It
is formed from NOX and volatile organic compounds
(VOCs) in the presence of sunlight. Ground-level ozone
is both a regional and transboundary problem.
Canada and the United States are moving forward on
two fronts to address this pollutant. Domestically,
Canada is completing Phase I of its NOX/VOC
Management Plan and developing its "Next Steps" Smog
Management Plan. The goal is to attain the air quality
objective of 82 parts per billion (ppb) ozone in Canada.
The United States established OTC in the Northeast and
OTAG for the entire eastern United States to study and
recommend regional control strategies to mitigate inter-
state pollution and achieve the 120 ppb air quality
standard for ozone. The United States continues to make
progress in improving air quality levels in ozone nonat-
tainment areas. Of the original 98 classified ozone
nonattainment areas, 28 have been redesignated to attain-
ment. Fourteen of these were redesignated in 1995.
Both countries are also reviewing their respective air
quality objectives/standards for ground-level ozone at a
time when studies indicate that human health effects can
occur at even lower concentrations. Cooperatively, the two
countries are also engaged in a transboundary ozone man-
agement pilot project, known as the Regional Ozone
Study Area (ROSA) project. This project will investigate
the effectiveness of regional controls on NOX and VOC
emissions in addressing the transboundary flow of
ground-level ozone.
Air Toxics
Air toxics are contaminants emitted to the atmosphere
that are hazardous to human health or plant and animal
life. They tend to persist in the environment for a long
time and can also accumulate over time in animals that
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Executive Summary
consume contaminated food and water. Hundreds of dif-
ferent air toxics have been identified, including heavy
metals (e.g., mercury) and organic compounds (e.g., ben-
zene and dioxins). Air toxics can be transported
thousands of miles from where they were emitted, making
them a transboundary problem as well as a global one.
Canada and the United States both launched domestic
programs about 20 years ago to control these pollutants.
This report, however, only describes the bilateral and
international efforts in which the two countries are
engaged to control air toxics. These efforts include the
proposed Strategy for the Virtual Elimination of Persistent
Toxic Substances in the Great Lakes Basin, the North
American Commission for Environmental Cooperation
initiatives, new protocols to the United Nations (UN)
Economic Commission for Europe Convention on Long-
Range Transboundary Air Pollution, and UN global work
on persistent organic pollutants.
Although none of diese international efforts on air tox-
ics is formally linked to the Air Quality Agreement, the
Air Quality Committee has decided to report on them to
provide a more complete picture of how the two countries
control transboundary air pollution.
Article X: Review and
Assessment
During 1995 and 1996, Canada and the United States
(the Parties) carried out the first five-year review of the
Agreement. The review concluded that, overall, the two
countries have been successful in fulfilling their
obligations as set forth in the Air Quality Agreement,
particularly regarding implementation of the acid rain
control programs in each country. The Parties agreed,
however, that control of transboundary air pollution has
not occurred to the extent necessary to fully protect the
environment.
Furthermore, the Agreement does not currently focus
on other serious transboundary air pollutants, such as
ground-level ozone, air toxics, and inhalable particles.
The Parties have begun studying regional ozone manage-
ment, however, and are evaluating what role they might
play regarding air toxics.
While the Parties agreed on most aspects of the review,
they disagreed about two main obligations: the prevention
of air quality deterioration/visibility protection under
Article IV and assessment and mitigation under Article V.
The two Parties also invited public input to the review
through public hearings held by the International Joint
Commission. Sixteen presenters participated in the hear-
ings, with 48 citizens groups, industry associations,
provinces, and individuals submitting written comments.
The majority of the presenters were from Canada. In
summary, comments indicated a consensus that the
Agreement provides a good framework for addressing all
transboundary air pollution issues. The public, however,
expressed the need to give higher priority to air quality
and health issues and recommended that the Agreement
be expanded to include new annexes on ground-level
ozone, air toxics, and inhalable particles.
Note: The text of the 1996 Progress Report uses American
spelling throughout (e.g., sulfur instead of sulphur). Future
progress reports will alternate the use of Canadian
and American spelling. Dollars are US$ unless otherwise
indicated.
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SECTION
ntroduction
T
he 1996 Progress Report focuses on progress made
in Canada and the United States in the last two
years to fulfill their respective commitments under
the Air Quality Agreement.
The report, prepared by the bilateral Air Quality
Committee (AQC), builds on the 1992 and 1994 Progress
Reports. The 1996 report reviews the acid rain control
programs, emissions forecasts, and scientific research in
both countries. It also discusses additional areas of con-
cern, including ground-level ozone (smog), inhalable
particles, and air toxics. In addition, the report includes
the first five-year review of the Air Quality Agreement by
both governments and a summary of public meetings on
the Agreement held by the International Joint
Commission (IJC).
History of the Agreement
Canada and the United States signed the Air Quality
Agreement on March 13, 1991, after more than a decade
of negotiations. The Agreement signaled the beginning of
a new era of environmental cooperation between the two
countries. The Agreement currendy focuses on acid rain
but was designed as a living Agreement to address trans-
boundary air pollution between the two countries.
To help implement the Agreement, the two countries
established the AQC. The AQC has focused primarily on
meeting the existing commitments in the Agreement, and
it has recendy started to address issues involving ground-
level ozone and air toxics.
The AQC includes two working subcommittees. The
Subcommittee on Program Monitoring and Reporting
assesses progress towards meeting emissions reduction tar-
gets and prepares progress reports. The Subcommittee on
Scientific Cooperation ensures the exchange of informa-
tion and cooperation in such areas as atmospheric
modeling and research and monitoring of atmospheric,
environmental, and human health effects. The AQC
meets at least once a year to provide overall direction to
the two subcommittees and to review progress made.
Under die Agreement, the IJC is assigned the responsi-
bility of inviting public comments on the progress reports
and synthesizing them for the two countries and the
public.
Public Comment on the
1994 Progress Report
In 1994, the IJC published notices, issued a news
release, and inserted a comment sheet in the second
progress report inviting public comments. In comparison
to the 21 written submissions on the first progress report,
only 8 were received on the second.
Several respondents to the 1994 Progress Report criti-
cized the Agreement and the AQC for not focusing on air
toxics emissions, ground-level ozone, and visibility. Some
respondents voiced uncertainty about what actions were
taken by the two governments as a result of the 1992
Progress Report review. They commented on wide-rang-
ing issues, including the need to address the following: (1)
including more women on the AQC; (2) considering the
degree of slippage, if any, on all official targets in the Air
Quality Agreement; (3) harmonizing air quality standards
on both sides of the border; (4) addressing hazardous
waste burning; (5) giving more attention to nitrate and
ammonium as acidifying agents; and (6) notifying each
government of possible new sources of air pollution in an
expanded transboundary region. A copy of the IJC
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SECTION I
synthesis of comments on the 1994 Progress Report is
available from the IJC.
The AQC and its subcommittees took the comments
on the progress reports into consideration during annual
activities and in preparing the first five-year review of the
Air Quality Agreement (included as Section VI of this
report). This progress report responds to as many of these
comments as possible within the five-year assessment or
elsewhere in the report.
Air Quality Committee:
Current Activities
At the 1994 annual meeting of the AQC in Ottawa, the
two countries reviewed progress towards the 1995 imple-
mentation deadlines in the Air Quality Agreement. They
reviewed efforts to reduce sulfur dioxide (SC^) and nitro-
gen oxide (NOX) emissions, discussed the need for
continuous emission monitoring (GEM), and evaluated
ways to prevent significant deterioration of air quality and
visibility. They also discussed the need to address long-
range transport of NOX and volatile organic compounds
(VOCs), the primary causes of ground-level ozone.
Major issues discussed at the 1995 annual meeting in
Washington, D.C., included the following:
* Progress on SO2 and NOX reductions in both countries.
* Progress of the two governments in carrying out the
transboundary ozone study pilot project begun in 1994
and in cooperating in ozone modeling and information
sharing.
* AQC review of its role regarding transboundary air tox-
ics in light of the work being conducted under various
international efforts on air toxics issues.
4 Cooperation and progress in scientific and technical
research, including harmonizing emissions inventories.
* Canada's position on compliance with prevention of sig-
nificant deterioration (PSD)/visibility and the U.S.
response.
4 Interpretation of assessment and mitigation provisions
of Article V.
* Ways of providing public access to notification under
Article V and the progress of both governments in pro-
viding notification of transboundary air pollution
sources.
In addition, die Subcommittee on Program Monitoring
and Reporting met in April 1995 in Washington, D.C., to
discuss progress towards meeting AQC objectives. The
Subcommittee on Scientific Cooperation met in Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina, in March 1996 to discuss
ongoing cooperation in research and monitoring efforts.
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SECTION
I I
Progress: Specific Programs and
Objectives
Overview
T
his section discusses each country's progress in meet-
ing objectives outlined in Annex 1 of the Air
Quality Agreement concerning SC>2 and NOX — the
main components of acid rain.
The emissions reductions oudined in Annex 1 are sum-
marized in Table 1. In this table, and throughout die
remainder of this document, Canadian SO2 and NOX
emissions are expressed as metric tonnes. U.S. SO2 and
NOX emissions are expressed as short tons. One short ton
is equivalent to 0.9 metric tonnes. One metric tonne is
equal to 1 . 1 short tons.
Implementation of
Control Programs
Canada
Program Goals
Canada has two caps on SO2 emissions: (1) an eastern
Canada cap of 2.3 million tonnes that applies to the seven
provinces from Manitoba eastwards, effective from 1994
to 2000, and (2) a national cap of 3.2 million tonnes that
takes effect from 2000 onwards.
Canada has surpassed both of these goals. In 1994, SO£
emissions in eastern Canada were just 1.7 million tonnes,
or 26 percent below the cap. National emissions were
approximately 2.7 million tonnes, or 16 percent below the
cap. Canada expects to be well under both caps for the
foreseeable future.
Table 2 illustrates SO2 reductions achieved by 1994 as
well as the provincial emissions limits. Some of the limits
Table 1. Canada-United States SO; Emissions Reduction Goals
SO2 emissions reduction in 7 easternmost provinces to
2.3 million tonnes1 by 1994
Maintenance of 2.3-million tonne annual cap for
eastern Canada through December 1999
Permanent national cap on SO2 emissions of 3.2
million tonnes by the year 2000
SO2 emissions reduction of 10 million tons1 from 1980
levels by the year 20002
Permanent national cap of 8.95 million tons for electric
utilities by the year 201 0
National cap of 5.6 million tons for industrial source
emissions beginning in 1995
ton is equal to 0.9 tonnes; 1 tonne is equal to 1 .1 tons.
2With the exception of sources repowering with a qualifying clean
coal technology, sources receiving bonus allowances as part of the
Allowance Trading Program, and sources using allowances earned
for early reduction efforts earned prior to the year 2000.
are still being amended through ongoing federal/provin-
cial negotiations to reflect the 2,300-kilotonne (kT) limit.
For NOX reductions, Canada is committed to cutting
emissions from stationary sources by more than 100,000
tonnes from projected levels by 2000. This goal will be
met on schedule. Currently identified reductions total
more than 125,000 tonnes, with the single largest reduc-
tion—43,000 tonnes—at the INCO metals smelter in
Sudbury, Ontario. New Brunswick also imposed the
Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA)
-------
SECTION II
Table 2. Total S02 Emissions by Provinces in
Manitoba .ft>|yfe ' •
Primary Metals
Other
Total2
Ontario ' ,. ;§;f \ :K|
Primary Metals
Power Generation
Other
Total2
Primary Metals
Other
Total2
New Brunswick
Primary Metals
Power Generation
Other
Total2
NovolScetid
•r ' „, •—%;%,?* I." '&-,-*& ,
Power Generation
Other
Total2
Newfoundland : *y ^
•«,, , — i,. •-.. .. . . J&y.i-uieS1*,;
Power Generation
Other
Total2
Prince Edward Island
Total2-4
Eastern Canada Total
Primary Metals
Power Generation
Other
Tota/2
1980
Act.
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396
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1098
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-------
r o g r e s s
p e c i
f i
rograms and Objectives
guidelines on a new power plant and on a major modifi-
cation to an existing power plant.
Program Implementation
The federal and provincial governments in Canada
share responsibility for implementing programs to control
air pollutants, such as NOX and SO2, and to address
regional air quality problems like smog.
In general, the federal governments role is to address
transboundary issues or circumstances where federal
sources are implicated. The federal government also pro-
vides leadership in developing national emissions
standards for new sources. The provinces oversee the pro-
tection and management of resources within their
boundaries as well as develop and enforce regulations.
Coordination among the provinces and the federal gov-
ernment is achieved through the Canadian Council of
Ministers of the Environment and the Council of Energy
Ministers.
SO2 Programs
The Eastern Canada Acid Rain Control Program was
initiated in 1985 and subsequently formalized in seven
federal/provincial agreements. These agreements establish
specific SC>2 emissions reduction targets and timetables
for each of the provinces. The provinces also agreed to
participate in acid rain effects research, monitor ecosys-
tems, and report on progress. The federal government
undertook to monitor reductions in transboundary flows
of SO2 from the United States, conduct a wide range of
research activities, monitor and model deposition, support
research and development projects for SC>2 reduction
technologies, and control emissions from federal facilities.
The program's objective was to limit wet sulfate deposi-
tion to no more than 20 kilograms per hectare per year
(kg/ha/yr) in the eastern provinces. This deposition rate
was defined as the acceptable level to protect moderately
sensitive aquatic systems. As a first step toward achieving
this target, SO2 emissions in eastern Canada were capped
at 2,300 kT by 1994.
The Eastern Canada Acid Rain Control Program focus-
es on reducing SO2 emissions at large, nonferrous metal
smelters and fossil fuel-burning power plants. The pro-
gram was fully implemented by 1994 with every province
meeting its target and many surpassing their targets by 25
percent or more. Each province in the program deter-
mined its own approach for meeting its provincial SO2
limit; some set targets for large emitters to meet, while
others regulated emitters. Industry complied by changing
production processes, installing emissions control technol-
ogy, switching fuel, increasing energy efficiency, and/or
closing old plants. Following are examples of industry
compliance:
* The Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting Ltd. smelter in
Manitoba commissioned a new zinc pressure leaching
plant to recover 98-99 percent of the zinc in concen-
trate form, reducing SC>2 emissions by about 25
percent.
+ Once the single largest point source of SC>2 in North
America, INCO's Sudbury (Ontario) smelter reduced
its SO2 emissions by 80 percent from 1980 levels. The
company decreased emissions from 865 kT to 162 kT
in 1994 as a result of a Can$612 million investment to
modernize its nickel and copper smelter. INCO's emis-
sions are currently 35 percent below its regulated limit
of 265 kT.
4 Noranda Metals' Home copper smelter in Quebec met
its regulated limit as a result of its technology develop-
ment program. In 1994, SO2 emissions were 156
kT—a reduction of more than 70 percent from 1980
levels.
* Large power plants also have installed scrubbers and/or
switched to lower-sulfur coal to meet their respective
SO2 limits. Ontario Hydro, for example, operates two
scrubbers at its coal-fired Lambton station at about 90-
percent SO2 removal efficiency. New Brunswick Power
has two scrubbers in operation, one at its new Belledune
station and one at its retrofitted Dalhousie station, both
of which comply with Canada's guidelines for new ther-
mal power plants. Nova Scotia Power began operating
the first commercial fluidized bed unit.
NOX Reductions
Several initiatives to reduce NOX at stationary sources
are now in place or being finalized as a result of provincial
actions in Phase I of Canada's NOX/VOC Management
Plan. They are described below. The number in parenthe-
ses is the estimated annual NOX emissions reduction in kT
for that particular measure by 2000. The six measures
total 125 kT in NOX emissions reductions:
* Canada's national NOX emissions limits for new steam-
electric power plants were revised in 1993 and went into
effect in 1995 under the Canadian Environmental
11
-------
SECTION II
FWA
800-1
Photo: Steve Delmey, U.S. EPA
Assessment Act. In 2000, the limits will be tightened to
less than one-quarter of the current limit (10 kT).
Retrofits of NOX emissions controls at existing fossil
fuel-burning power plants are proceeding in Quebec,
New Brunswick, Ontario, and British Columbia (12
kT).
New source limits were published in 1992 for gas tur-
bines used to power pipeline compressors and in
increasingly popular combined-cycle power plants (20
kT).
New source limits for other stationary fossil fuel- burn-
ing equipment, such as boilers, process heaters, and
kilns, are being finalized (40 kT).
A complete reconstruction of the INCO metals smelter
at Sudbury, Ontario, included switching to an oxygen-
based process. By excluding atmospheric nitrogen from
the furnace, NOX emissions have been virtually elimi-
nated (43 kT).
* British Columbia has implemented a mandatory vehicle
inspection and maintenance (I/M) program, and a
number of other provinces are developing regional pro-
grams to curb smog problems through I/M, public
education, and public transportation.
Regarding mobile-source initiatives, beginning with the
1994 model year, new Canadian light-duty vehicles have
met more stringent emissions standards, paralleling those
in the United States. These more stringent standards
resulted from an agreement between the federal govern-
ment and automakers.
At their October 1995 meeting, the Canadian Council
of Ministers of the Environment endorsed a new Cleaner
Vehicles and Fuels Initiative. This important new initia-
tive will accomplish the following:
* Further tighten new vehicle emissions standards in har-
mony with the United States.
* Introduce new alternative low-emission vehicles starting
in 2001 (with 10-percent lower NOX emissions and 7-
percent lower VOC emissions).
* Extend low-sulfur diesel fuel to 100 percent of on-road
diesel use starting in 1997.
* Introduce gasoline with reduced benzene and sulfur
content starting in 1998.
Monitoring of Canadian Emissions
Compliance monitoring involves measuring or estimat-
ing emissions, verifying that the values are appropriate,
and reporting the results to authorities on a regular basis.
In Canada, emissions may be one of the following:
* Estimated. These are based on industrial process vari-
ables, such as combustion parameters, tonnes of ore
processed, or sulfur recovered per unit of time.
* Directly measured on a continuous basis. CEM is the
actual measurement, on a continuous basis, of pollu-
tants emitted into the atmosphere in exhaust gases from
combustion processes.
* Predicted. Predictive emissions monitoring systems or
"software CEM" use combustion and process parame-
ters that are inputted into the plant's control system to
track and predict emissions.
Under the Agreement, Canada was required by January
1995 to establish at electric utility units greater than 25
megawatts a method of comparable effectiveness to CEM.
-------
Progress: Specific Programs and Objectives
Canada was also required to investigate the feasibility of
using and implementing CEMs where appropriate.
To ensure compliance with the Agreement, Canada
issued a guideline under CEPA stating that all new and
modified thermal power plants commissioned after 1995
install GEM systems in accordance with the new
Performance Specification and Protocol for Continuous
Emission Monitoring of Gaseous Emissions from Thermal
Power Generation. Most provinces have regulations that
require existing units to install CEM. (For additional dis-
cussion see Section VI, Article-by-Article Review.)
For large, base-loaded utility units, all but two plants—
Boundary Dam in Saskatchewan and Holyrood in
Newfoundland—had installed CEM systems or systems of
equivalent effectiveness by the end of 1995. These two
provinces are now reviewing the requirements to install
CEM systems or use other comparable methods.
Capacity used on a standby or peaking mode presents
technical difficulties for CEM. Other estimation methods
are more appropriate and have been accepted in Canada.
Most provinces require monitoring in other industries
with major combustion sources, such as plants in the pulp
and paper, cement, chemicals, steel-making, and smelting
sectors.
The application of methods other than conventional
CEMs usually depends upon the size and location of the
facility, the nature of the fuel, and the type of combustion
equipment. Since many of Canada's medium-sized
sources are fueled by natural gas, the use of predictive
monitoring systems is expected to increase. These systems
reduce emissions by optimizing combustion processes.
United States
Program Goals
The U.S. Acid Rain Program to reduce SO2 arid NOX
emissions is well under way. Major goals of the Acid Rain
Program established under Tide IV of the 1990 Clean Air
Act Amendments (CAAA) are:
* Reduction of annual SC>2 emissions by 10 million tons
below 1980 levels.
* A 50-percent reduction in utility SO2 emissions.
* A national cap on utility SO2 emissions of 8.95 million
tons per year.
4 A national cap on nonutility SO2 industrial emissions
of 5.6 million tons.
These goals are to be accomplished in two phases—
Phase I began in January 1995; Phase II begins in 2000.
The Acid Rain Program is also designed to reduce NOX
emissions from coal-fired boilers as part of an overall 2-
million-ton NOX reduction mandated by the Act.
SO2 Program Implementation
The United States began its first compliance year in
1995 for Phase I of the Acid Rain Program. SO2 emis-
sions declined sharply in 1995 at the original 263 Phase I
electric utility units. Emissions at these large, mosdy coal-
burning facilities were nearly 5 million tons below 1980
levels, representing a decline in emissions at these units of
more than 50 percent since 1980. These Phase I units
were responsible for more than half of the 1980 utility
SO2 emissions and represent 95 percent of total 1995
emissions reductions.
Additional 1995 reductions of 300,000 tons were
achieved by 182 substitution and compensating units—
Phase II units that chose to comply with Phase I
requirements early. Actual emissions levels of SO2 for all
utility units in Phase I decreased to 5.3 million tons from
1980 levels of 10.9 million tons, a reduction of 3.4 mil-
lion tons more than allowable levels of 8.7 million tons in
the first year of compliance (see Figure 1). These emis-
sions reduction milestones followed significant levels of
allowance trading and 100-percent utility compliance
1995 Allowable
10.0 Emissions:
8.7
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
Figure 1. U.S. S02 Emissions Reductions at Phase I Affected Utility
Units.
Note: Affected utility units include the original 263 Phase I units and 182
substitution and compensating units that chose to comply with Phase I
requirements early.
13
-------
SECTION II
with all
requirements.
Phase I permitting, GEM, and reporting
nts.
Since the Acid Rain Program's major rules were pub-
lished in January 1993 and the 1994 Progress Report was
issued, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
has promulgated additional regulations to foster the Acid
Rain Program. These include a final opt-in regulation in
April 1995 allowing small utility combustion sources
(boilers, turbines, or internal combustion engines) to enter
the Acid Rain Program voluntarily.
Allowance Trading
Allowance trading grew significandy during the first
year of Phase I compliance. As of March 31, 1996, EPA's
Allowance Tracking System (ATS) recorded more than
2,000 allowance transactions involving the transfer of
more than 40 million allowances. Of the 40 million
allowances, nearly 30 million were transferred by private
parties. About 10 percent of these allowances were
acquired by electric utility companies from brokers, fuel
companies, or other electric utilities. EPA expects that an
even more significant portion of the total allowances
transferred will become "intrautility" trades (allowances
transferred among different plants within the same
company).
Allowance purchases through EPA's annual public auc-
tion continue to receive support. Some 775,000
allowances have been sold in four auctions, with the aver-
age sales price of allowances continuing to drop. In the
March 1996 auction, 275,000 allowances were sold with
average prices ranging from $64 to $68.
In other program initiatives, EPA's awards of allowances
from the Conservation and Renewable Energy Reserve
have increased significantly to utilities that reduced emis-
sions through energy efficiency and renewable projects
before the CAAA emissions reductions deadlines. In
December 1995, EPA awarded more than 8,600 energy
efficiency and renewable energy bonus allowances, die
largest award of bonus allowances since they began in
1993 and twice the total number of allowances that had
been previously awarded.
EPA has also made the first awards of small diesel
allowances. The CAAA established the small diesel refin-
ery program to assist small refiners in defraying the capital
costs of installing desulfurization equipment at their
refineries by providing SC>2 allowances based on the
amount of diesel fuel produced.
In another program initiative, EPA awarded its first
allowances to industrial sources voluntarily entering the
Acid Rain Program. Allocations of 95,882 allowances were
awarded to Alcoa units in Newburg, Indiana and Dupont
boilers in Johnsonville, Tennessee. Known as the opt-in
program, additional combustion sources (e.g., fossil fuel-
fired boilers, turbines, or internal combustion engines)
not already affected by the Acid Rain Program can partic-
ipate in allowance trading. Sources can create allowances
through emissions reductions and generate revenue
through the sale of allowances. Opting in will be prof-
itable if the revenue from selling allowances exceeds the
combined cost of the emissions reductions and of partici-
pating in the opt-in program.
NOX Program Implementation
The United States is undertaking a combination of
measures for stationary and mobile sources to reduce NOX
emissions under the CAAA. NOX emissions are expected
to be reduced by more than 2 million tons by 2000. A
major part of these reductions is expected from Acid Rain
Program reductions of emissions from coal-fired electric
power plants.
In the first stage of the Acid Rain Programs NOX reduc-
tions, regulations promulgated in April 1995 will reduce
NOX emissions by more than 400,000 tons per year from
1996 to 1999 and by more than 1.2 million tons by 2000.
The regulations established standards for Group 1 boilers
(defined as coal-burning, dry bottom wall-fired, and tan-
gentially fired boilers).
The Acid Rain Program's proposal for second-stage
NOX reductions was announced in January 1996. These
reductions will provide further NOX reductions by 2000.
The proposal presents standards for 195 Group 2 boilers
(defined as cell burners, cyclones, wet bottom wall-fired,
vertically fired, and fluidized bed combustors) and also
proposes tightening existing standards for Phase II Group
1 boilers. Under CAAA requirements, regulations for
these second-stage NOX reductions must be promulgated
by January 1, 1997.
Phase I affected units are required to meet the applica-
ble limits by 1996. Phase II affected units are required to
meet the applicable limits by 2000. The proposed rule
relies upon target performance standards but also allows
emissions averaging and the use of alternative, higher
emissions limits where meeting the applicable limits is
infeasible. Utilities choose the method of compliance
which best suits their needs. This approach provides
14
-------
r o g r e s s
Specif
i c
r o g r a m
s and Object!
v e s
flexibility, promotes technology development and compe-
tition, and provides opportunities to reduce the cost of
control.
In other developments, EPA continues to work with
states to help them implement stationary-source require-
ments for reducing ground-level ozone in parts of the
United States. Since the issuance of the 1994 Progress
Report, states and the District of Columbia in the Ozone
Transport Commission (OTC) signed a memorandum of
understanding (MOU) to reduce NOX emissions by 55-
75 percent from 1990 levels. The reductions will occur in
two phases, 1999 and 2003, and will help significantly
reduce smog levels in the northeastern United States as
well as help achieve the health-based standards for ozone.
In programs aimed at reducing NOX emissions from
mobile sources, EPA continues to implement regulations
established under the CAAA for passenger cars and trucks.
In addition to standards reported in the 1994 Progress
Report, EPA introduced tailpipe standards for cars in
1994 that will be phased in on car models through 1996.
More stringent tailpipe standards will substantially reduce
emissions of NOX and VOCs, the main components of
ground-level ozone.
EPA also is developing two major programs that will
result in significant NOX reductions early in the 21st cen-
tury. The National Low-Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program
is expected to achieve nationwide reductions of NOX
emissions of 400 tons per day by 2005. Once the vehicle
fleet has turned over, NOX reductions of 1,200 tons per
day are estimated by 2015. In addition, EPA is develop-
ing regulations in partnership with the State of California
and leading manufacturers of heavy-duty engines. These
regulations will establish a consensus plan to reduce emis-
sions from new trucks and buses substantially beginning
in 2004. This is expected to result in a 50-percent reduc-
tion over current levels of NOX emissions from heavy-duty
engines.
Monitoring of U.S. Emissions
All operating Phase I and Phase II utilities have installed
CEMs or acceptable alternatives. There is an unprece-
dented level of accuracy and compliance in the CEMs
installed by utilities and nearly full compliance with
reporting requirements. Some 98 percent of installed
monitors at Phase I units passed the required 10-percent
relative accuracy standard; 93 percent achieved relative
accuracy standards of less than 7.5 percent. Monitors used
Worker tests continuous emission monitoring equipment used at a
US. utility plant.
at Phase I units were in operation more than 95 percent of
the time.
CEMs and the Emissions Tracking System (ETS) ensure
the integrity of the Acid Rain Program, instilling confi-
dence in allowance transactions by certifying the existence
and quantity of the commodity being traded. Monitoring
also ensures through accurate accounting that the emis-
sions reductions goals of the CAAA are met. Each new and
existing electric utility unit greater than 25 megawatts
must employ a CEM system; there are alternative moni-
toring requirements for some natural gas and oil-fired
units.
The Acid Rain Program focuses on total emissions.
Each regulated unit must account for each ton of SO2
emitted as well as NOX and carbon dioxide (CO2). In
addition, each unit must measure volumetric flow, opaci-
ty, and diluent gas. Utility units are required to provide
electronic quarterly reports to EPA on their emissions.
Quarterly reporting of emissions for Phase II units began
in April 1995. All Phase I units fulfilled their requirement
to report a full year's worth of hourly emissions data.
EPA's ETS records quarterly report data and analyzes
each unit's emissions data for quality assurance. These
data are then reconciled with the unit's SO2 allowance
holdings during annual reconciliation, under which a
unit's SO2 emissions must match the allowances it holds.
By the fourth quarter of 1995, nearly 40 percent of Phase
15
-------
SECTION II
I and Phase II affected utility units submitted emissions
data to EPA by electronic transfer.
EPA certified all Phase I electric utility units in 1995.
Most Phase II units are expected to be certified by the fall
of 1996. Monitoring tests revealed high performance
results.
Annual Reconciliation
The first annual reconciliation of SO2 allowances and
emissions for utility units occurred in early 1996 after the
first year of Phase I compliance. All 445 affected utility
units met their compliance obligations—SO2 allowances
held matched emissions generated. In 1995, 87 million
SO2 allowances were held by utility units, allowing up to
8.7 million tons of SC>2 to be emitted. However, only 5.3
million tons of SO2 were emitted—39 percent less than
allowed.
All Phase I units and any Phase II units that elected to
participate during Phase I must reconcile SO2 emissions
and allowances at the end of each compliance year.
Utilities are given until January 30 of the following year to
obtain additional SC>2 allowances, if necessary, to cover
each unit's emissions for the year. After January 30 (the
allowance transfer deadline), the allowances a unit holds
in its ATS must equal or exceed the unit's annual SC>2
emissions. Any remaining allowances may be sold or
banked for future years. If a unit's emissions exceed the
number of allowances held, the unit is out of compliance.
Compliance Assurance Monitoring for
Industrial Sources
In addition to Title IV Acid Rain Program GEM
requirements for utility sources of emissions, the CAAA
included new provisions in Tide V, Permits, and Title VII,
Enforcement. These provisions require owners and oper-
ators of major stationary industrial sources to enhance
monitoring of criteria pollutants and certify compliance
with regulations. Criteria pollutants are paniculate mat-
ter (PM^), SC>2, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen
dioxide (NC>2), ozone, and lead. All major sources cov-
ered by Title V would be affected, including electric utility
steam generating units, industrial/commercial/institution-
al steam generating units, municipal waste combustors,
petroleum refineries, primary copper, zinc, and lead
smelters, steel plants, and pulp mills. Hazardous air pol-
lutants under state regulation also would be affected.
EPA initiated an enhanced monitoring proposal in
1993 that set general monitoring criteria to be followed in
demonstrating continuous compliance. EPA withdrew
the proposal in April 1995 to allow further review of mon-
itoring approaches.
A revised proposal, named compliance assurance moni-
toring, was issued in the summer of 1996, taking into
account issues raised at a series of stakeholder and focus
group meetings. The proposal will establish criteria that
define what monitoring should be conducted by a source
to provide a reasonable assurance of compliance with
emissions limitations and standards. The criteria will
include the maximum number of discrepancies that repre-
sent acceptable control performance and address the
obligation to complete corrective actions as indicated by
monitoring results. A final rule is expected to be promul-
gated in the summer of 1997.
PSD and Visibility Protection
Information Exchange Meetings
Between Canada and the United
States
Since the last progress report, the National Park Service
and Parks Canada cosponsored the second international
air issues workshop in June 1995 at Waterton Glacier
International Peace Park. In addition to the park services,
participants included EPA, Environment Canada, the
U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the
provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, the state of
Montana, and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai
Tribes.
Among the recommendations made to continue and
expand cooperative efforts were the following: (1) estab-
lishing a national lead on air quality at Parks Canada; (2)
beginning a newsletter and information exchange; (3)
sharing monitoring and research data and establishing a
common monitoring program; (4) participating in region-
al air quality partnerships and programs; and (5) forming
park-level working groups, including exchanges of
personnel.
-------
rogress: Specific Programs and Objectives
Status of Development of PSD
and Visibility Programs in Canada
In December 1994, Canada submitted to the AQC a
formal response on Canada's obligations under the Air
Quality Agreement regarding PSD and visibility. In brief,
Canada holds that the Canadian Environmental
Assessment Act (proclaimed on January 1, 1995), togeth-
er with provincial permitting and assessment regulations
and maximum desirable air quality objectives (the bench-
mark for assessment of new sources near pristine areas),
provides comparable protection to that provided by the
U.S. PSD program.
In general, new point sources or modifications to exist-
ing sources under provincial jurisdiction are required to
submit to environmental assessment and/or permitting
processes. Applications are reviewed under the applicable
legislation. Every jurisdiction in the country has formal
environmental assessment legislation.
As part of this assessment process, the proponent must
undertake the following:
* Justify the need for the project and review alternative
options.
4 Complete a pollution prevention analysis.
* Analyze pollution control technologies to minimize
emissions.
* Evaluate the impact of emissions on the environment,
including ambient air quality and visibility.
4 Adjust the project as required by the air quality analysis.
New or modified sources in already developed areas are
generally assessed against the maximum acceptable air
quality objectives. Projects proposed for undeveloped
areas, including those that might impact national or
provincial parks, are assessed against the maximum desir-
able air quality objectives to keep clean areas clean.
Maximum desirable objectives are comparable to back-
ground levels.
In addition, the Canadian Environmental Assessment
Act provides the means to ensure that the impact of pro-
posed Canadian sources will be assessed in U.S. territory,
including Class I areas, and that possible damages will be
mitigated. (Class I areas are areas of special natural, recre-
ational, scenic, or historic value, such as national parks
and wilderness areas.)
The United States, however, has indicated its concern
that Canada has not fulfilled its PSD/visibility obligations
under the terms of the Air Quality Agreement. Furdier
discussions between the two governments are under way.
(For additional information, see Section VI, Article-by-
Article Review.)
Progress of Existing PSD and
Visibility Programs in the United
States
The U.S. PSD program was designed to keep areas with
clean air clean. The basic goals of the PSD program are
the following: (1) ensure that economic growth will occur
in harmony with the preservation of existing clean air
resources; (2) protect the public health and welfare from
any adverse effects that might occur even at air pollution
levels lower than the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS); and (3) preserve, protect, and
enhance the air quality in Class I areas.
Since the 1994 Progress Report, the Interagency
Workgroup on Air Quality Modeling, comprised of EPA
and federal land managers (National Park Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Forest Service), has
continued to develop air quality modeling tools that will
evaluate the effects of long-range transport on national
parks and wilderness areas. Since the issuance in 1993 of
a first-phase report outlining the use of modeling tools in
the air quality permitting process and steps needed for
improvement, most of the recommendations have been
accomplished.
These accomplishments include developing high-reso-
lution wind fields for better characterizing transport
processes and refining meteorological and air quality
models to better estimate pollutant levels in parks and
wilderness areas. The refined long-range transport analy-
sis techniques were presented for public comment at the
sixth EPA modeling conference. These techniques are
now being used more routinely in permitting actions
around the country, thus improving the scientific basis for
decisions concerning air quality impacts in parks and
wilderness areas.
A similar though voluntary group, the Southern
Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI), has brought
together a variety of stakeholders to address visibility as
well as ozone and acid deposition issues in the Southeast.
17
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SECTION II
Photo: Air Resources Specialists, Forr Collins, Colorado
Visibility on a good (left) and bad (right) day at Acadia National Park in Bangor, Maine, one of the sites that makes up the US. Interagency
Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) program.
SAMI is focusing on the Great Smoky Mountains and
Shenandoah National Parks and the eight Forest Service
PSD Class I wilderness areas in the region.
In another development, the Grand Canyon Visibility
Transport Commission (GCVTC) has completed the
technical assessment of actions to improve visibility on the
Colorado Plateau. GCVTC used the assessment to devel-
op regional haze recommendations that were issued in a
report to EPA in June 1996. EPA has 18 months to act on
the recommendations. The recommendations include: (1)
reduction of emissions by vehicles and power plants; (2)
encouragement of pollution prevention efforts, including
development of renewable energy and energy conserva-
tion; (3) exploration of an emissions fee for certain
polluters; and (4) minimization of smoke impacts from
prescribed areas.
The assessment developed and modeled an emissions
inventory, provided air quality and modeling analyses, and
evaluated the effectiveness of various emissions manage-
ment options, including costs, for visibility conditions.
GCVTC consists of the governors of western states in the
air transport regions and includes ex-officio members
from EPA and the federal land managers. The assessment
was conducted by committees comprised of representa-
tives from federal and state governments, industry,
environmental groups, and academia. GCVTC was man-
dated under the CAAA.
EPA also has formed an outside advisory committee on
ozone, PM, and regional haze implementation programs.
This group provides advice and recommendations to EPA
on developing new, integrated approaches for implement-
ing NAAQS for ozone and PM as well as for
implementing a new regional haze reduction program.
The subcommittee is expected to issue a report making
recommendations on regional haze reduction in June
1997, with promulgation of any regulations 18 months
from the report's issue date.
Visibility monitoring in national parks and wilderness
areas is reported in Section III, pages 43-46, of this report.
18
-------
Progress: Specific Programs and Objectives
New Issues Under the
Control Programs
Canada
Prior to the Eastern Canadian SOj Reduction
Agreement in 1985, Canadian scientists predicted that the
current SO2 emissions reductions would likely not be suf-
ficient to protect the more sensitive aquatic ecosystems in
Canada (1990 Assessment Report). New scientific evi-
dence since then has confirmed that acidifying emissions
are still a serious problem for aquatic and terrestrial
ecosystems and human health. (See Section III, pages 35-
43 and 47-50.)
As a result, Canada is currently developing a new
National Strategy on Acidifying Emissions beyond 2000.
The strategy will address the need for further emissions
reductions within Canada and the United States to protect
the Canadian environment, human health, and visibility.
Although the strategy was originally driven by the need to
solve the residual acid rain problem, protecting human
health from the effects of sulfate particles has become an
important consideration. Furdiermore, the strategy also
will include pollution prevention measures to ensure that
areas not currently at risk from acidification will remain
so.
The strategy is expected to be submitted to federal and
provincial environment and energy ministers in 1997.
U.S. Acid Deposition Standard
Feasibility Study
EPAs Acid Deposition Standard Feasibility Study, issued
in October 1995 and mandated under Appendix B,
Section 404, of the CAAA, reported that nitrogen and sul-
fur play an important role in long- and short-term
acidification of surface waters. The report projects that
full protection of surface waters might not be realized
because of the role of nitrogen in some sensitive water-
sheds. Although environmental benefits are reported in
the study's comparisons of reduction scenarios with and
without the Acid Rain Program, additional reductions in
nitrogen and sulfur deposition might be necessary to pro-
tect the most sensitive resources more fully. (See Section
II, pages 21-22, and Section III, page 29, for a more
detailed discussion of the study.)
Progress Under Article V of
the Air Quality Agreement
Article V, Assessment, Notification, and Mitigation,
discusses proposed actions, activities, or projects that, if
implemented, would be likely to cause significant trans-
boundary air pollution. Since Article V does not contain
implementation procedures, the two governments held
discussions to initiate the notification process. From the
outset, bilateral discussions were marked by a fundamen-
tal disagreement in interpretation of paragraph 1 of Article
V that relates to assessment of sources deferring to existing
laws, regulations, and policies in both countries. Section
VI of this report discusses this matter in more detail.
The two governments began implementing notification
procedures in the fall of 1994. The Parties notify each
other of major sources of SC>2, NO2, VOCs, particles,
CO, and toxic substances. The identification of possible
new sources or modification of existing major sources of
transboundary air pollution within 100 kilometers (km)
of die border triggers the notification procedure. The
Parties recognize, however, that major new sources beyond
this zone also could be a concern. Therefore, in
November 1994, they agreed to notify each other of any
major new source beyond the 100 km limit but did not
agree on what criteria to use to decide which sources
would trigger notification. All notification information is
available to the public on the Internet.
Through formal notification, Canada has notified the
United States of eight possible new sources over the last
two years, while the United States has notified Canada of
two. The United States has also notified Canada of Clean
Air Act (CAA) actions addressing air pollution. The
United States and Canada consulted on the CAA rule-
making that changed the Detroit-Ann Arbor regions
ozone nonattainment status to attainment. The United
States also notified Canada about a similar CAA rulemak-
ing on ozone in Ohio.
19
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SECTION II
Market-Based Intruments
Canada
Canada does not have a national emissions trading pro-
gram like the United States or a tax on SC>2 emissions like
Sweden. It is, however, exploring a number of market-
based initiatives.
In late 1994, the federal government established the
Task Force on Economic Instruments to identify workable
options for the implementation of one or more market-
based instruments. The task force identified emissions
trading programs for NOX and SO2 as areas where further
work would be required if they were to be considered for
implementation in the long term.
The federal government had already begun examining
the economic, administrative, and environmental feasibil-
ity of an emissions trading program for SC>2 in the
Atlantic region. The government found that trading
among sources in the Atlantic region can reduce emissions
within a regional bubble at a total regional cost signifi-
cantly less than that of a command-and-control approach.
Because of the high proportion of imported sulfur into
Adantic Canada from upwind sources, however, emissions
trading limited to Adantic Canada would have only a
marginal impact on regional acidic deposition levels. As a
result, Canada is contemplating extending the area under
consideration for emissions trading beyond the Atlantic
region to include the nearby areas of southern Quebec and
Ontario.
A number of industries in Ontario and Quebec are
working together on an open-market emissions reduction
credit system for controlling NOX and VOC emissions
from mobile and stationary sources in the Windsor-
Quebec corridor. The members intend to develop the
credit system rules by mid-1996.
United States
The Acid Rain Program under the CAAA represents the
world's largest use of market-based mechanisms to achieve
environmental protection. Since enactment of the pro-
gram, the projected cost of compliance with the SO2
emissions reductions has declined significantly, largely
because of the program's flexible, market-based approach.
In 1990, EPA estimated the annualized cost of the SO2
reductions to be $4 billion by 2010, assuming full
interutility trading. In December 1994, the General
Accounting Office completed an analysis of the program
and estimated that with full interutility trading the annu-
alized cost in 2010 should be less than $2.0 billion,
compared to an annualized cost of compliance without
trading of $4.9 billion.
Some of the cost savings associated with more recent
analyses can be linked to lower transportation costs for
low-sulfur coal. Other cost savings can be attributed to
reductions in costs and improved performance of certain
technologies now that they must compete with all emis-
sions reduction options. Clearly, competition between
compliance options has had an effect on costs and inno-
vation.
Allowance trading is occurring on two levels, both of
which result in significant cost savings to the affected
industry.
First, most large utility systems are performing "inter-
nal" trades of allowances among the boilers within their
systems in order to achieve the lowest cost of compliance
for the system. Market watchers speculate that this is the
larger share of "trading" that is occurring in the program
today. Submissions of trades to be recorded in EPA's ATS
are voluntary and will not occur until the parties want the
transfer to be "official" for compliance purposes.
Therefore, many of these trades are not yet reflected in
EPA's tracking system. The second level is the external
trading among utilities and various financial entities.
There are numerous other examples of innovative mar-
ket-incentive programs aimed at achieving pollution
reductions under the CAAA. For example, California's
South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD)
is continuing to undertake the most comprehensive ozone
nonattainment trading program in the United States with
its Regional Clean Air Initiatives Market (RECLAIM)
program for the Los Angeles area. Begun in January 1994,
RECLAIM sets annual emissions limits on NOX and SO2
for 430 sources. These limits would decrease each year to
curb the area companies' emissions by 80 percent for NOX
and 65 percent for SO2 by 2003. AQMD expects that the
costs of meeting the goal would be about half that of reg-
ular smog control. It is estimated that RECLAIM will save
Los Angeles $164.1 million a year.
By the end of 1996, EPA expects to issue guidance for
emissions trading of smog-forming pollutants (NOX and
VOCs) that gives states and industry more flexibility in
20
-------
Progress: Specific Programs and Objectives
trading emissions credits without prior state or federal
approval. The open-market system, proposed in July
1995, allows industrial sources to create credits by reduc-
ing emission rates below recent actual levels required by
federal or state rules.
In another market-based trading initiative, the OTC
adopted a model rule in February 1996 that implements
OTC's NOX emissions reduction requirement through a
market-based "cap and trade" program. OTC was estab-
lished by the CAAA to coordinate state efforts to reduce
ground-level ozone levels across the 12 northeastern states
and the District of Columbia. The OTC trading program
has the potential to achieve cost savings of nearly $80 mil-
lion in annualized costs in 2005.
The Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) is
also exploring market initiatives. Comprised of 37 states
in the eastern United States, OTAG is expected to report
on a regional trading option in the fall of 1996 as part of
an effort to reduce ozone transport.
Finally, several states have established or are establishing
their own initiatives for market incentives for air pollution
reductions. These states include California, Connecticut,
Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York,
Oklahoma, and Texas.
Assessment of the Costs,
Benefits, and Effectiveness Of
Clean Air Controls
Canada
Canada continues to gather data to evaluate the costs,
benefits, and effectiveness of clean air controls. In the
past, abatement strategies for air pollution were developed
based on studies that emphasized either costs or emissions
reductions. They were not easily linked to the expected
environmental benefits.
To correct this weakness, Canada has developed an inte-
grated assessment model that links control costs, SO2
emissions forecasts, atmospheric relationships, and geo-
chemical and biological model results with a geographic
information system to predict ecological responses. The
model allows the user to ask questions such as: "What
level of SO2 emissions is needed to protect all lakes in
Canada?" In addition, the model can identify the most
efficient and cost-effective way to meet environmental
objectives. As a result, it is an important tool for develop-
ing the new National Strategy for Acidifying Emissions.
Since diere are serious effects of air pollution on human
health, a number of studies to assess health costs have been
conducted, including die following:
* A 1994 study of the clean air benefits in the Lower
Fraser Valley in British Columbia that examined pollu-
tants such as PM10, SO2, NOX, and VOCs. The study
found that health benefits could be approximately
Can$7 billion over a 3 5-year period.
* A 1995 study on the health benefits from reducing vehi-
cle emissions nationally (e.g., particles, NOX, VOCs,
some air toxics, and benzene) that found that the health
benefits ranged from Can$l 1 billion to Can$30 billion
over a 24-year period.
United States
Numerous efforts are under way to evaluate the costs,
benefits, and effectiveness of the U.S. Acid Rain Program
and the overall CAAA. As mandated by several sections of
the CAAA, initial assessments and evaluation of the Acid
Rain Program have been completed. Others are under
way or planned.
EPA's Acid Deposition Standard Feasibility Study
(EPA430-R- 95-00la), issued in October 1995 and man-
dated under Appendix B, Section 404, of the CAAA, was
one of the first studies to project environmental effective-
ness of the Acid Rain Program. The study indicates diat
SO2 emissions reductions will benefit sensitive surface
waters such as lakes and streams, particularly in the east-
ern United States. The study also reports that nitrogen and
sulfur play an important role in long- and short-term acid-
ification of surface waters. The report concludes that
additional reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition
might be necessary to fully protect the most sensitive
resources. The report also projects that trading of SO2
emissions allowances under the Acid Rain Program, which
is expected to reduce control costs by about 50 percent,
will not have detrimental environmental effects.
The report found that scientific uncertainties, particu-
larly with regard to nitrogen, need to be reduced. The
report does not recommend setting an acid deposition
standard at this time, a view supported by EPA's Science
Advisory Board. (An acid deposition standard is a
-------
SECTION II
numerical limitation on the amount of acidic compounds
above which adverse impacts are believed to occur to a
given ecological resource.) The report does, however, lay
the foundation for future efforts to assess appropriate
environmental goals in ecologically sensitive regions.
The feasibility study integrated state-of-the-art ecologi-
cal effects research, emissions data, and source-receptor
modeling work. The study also considered implementa-
tion and cost issues (see Section II of this report, page 19).
Another EPA study issued in November 1995, Human
Health Benefits From Sulfate Reductions Under Title IV of
the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, estimates the total
annual value of the health benefits in the United States (in
1994 dollars) resulting from Tide IV's sulfate reductions.
The study estimates the value to be between $3 billion and
$11 billion in 1997, and between $12 billion and $40 bil-
lion by 2010 when the program is fully implemented.
The study also projected that annual health benefits for
eastern Canada resulting from U.S. reductions in SO2
emissions would be an additional $1 billion in both 1997
and 2010.
Copies of the feasibility and human health benefits
studies are available from the Acid Rain Hodine at 202
233-9620.
Other benefits assessments are under way. Section 812
of the Amendments requires EPA to assess the costs and
benefits of the entire CAAA. The assessment requirement
is both retrospective (1970-1990) and prospective (in
terms of projections regarding expected costs, benefits,
and other effects of compliance pursuant to the Act). The
retrospective report is under review. The prospective
report is being developed.
Evaluation of the Acid Rain Program also will be
addressed under Section 901 of the CAAA. Under this
requirement, the National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Program (NAPAP), a federal interagency program estab-
lished by Congress in 1980, is directed to issue a report to
Congress in 1996 and every four years thereafter on costs,
benefits, and effectiveness of Title IV. NAPAP is also
directed to address deposition rates that must be achieved
in order to prevent adverse ecological effects. In support
of this mandate, a tool for modeling integrated assess-
ment, the Tracking and Analysis Framework (TAP), is
being developed for NAPAP.
TAP has the following goals: (1) integrating credible
models of scientific and technical issues into an assessment
framework that can directly assess key policy issues and (2)
acting as an orderly repository with the capability for stor-
ing and analyzing real-world data on emissions,
deposition, compliance strategies, and costs, as they
become available. TAP is made up of various models
which include emissions, atmospheric pathways, lake
acidification, visibility, and benefits evaluation.
Since implementation of Phase I of the Acid Rain
Program only began in 1995, there is not enough infor-
mation available at this time to conduct a more
comprehensive integrated assessment in 1996. Therefore,
the 1996 NAPAP Report to Congress will consider the
state-of-science in the effects and benefits areas relevant to
acid deposition. The 1996 NAPAP Report to Congress
will describe the activities that need to occur in order for
TAP to contribute to a more complete assessment of the
costs and benefits of Tide IV of the CAAA as part of the
year 2000 assessment.
In addition, EPA submitted its first report to Congress
in 1995 on national SO2 emissions trends from industrial
sources such as coal-burning plants, pulp and paper mills,
and petroleum refineries. The report, National Annual
Industrial Sulfur Dioxide Emission Trends, 1995-2015
(EPA454-R-95-001), concludes that industrial SO2 emis-
sions are expected to decrease 13 percent (to 4.9 million
tons) from the 5.6-million-ton cap during the next 20
years. The report also finds that the diesel fuel desulfur-
ization regulations are already having a positive effect on
reducing mobile-source SO2 emissions, demonstrating a
19- percent decrease in diesel vehicle emissions and a 10-
percent reduction in overall motor vehicle emissions. A
copy of the emissions trends report (publication number
PB96-13955) is available from the National Technical
Information Service (NTIS) at 703 487-4660 or from
INFOCHIEF at 919 541-5285.
22
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SECTION
I I I
Progress: Scientific and Technica
Activities and Economic Research
This section discusses each country's progress in meet-
ing the commitments outlined in Annex 2 of the Air
Quality Agreement to coordinate and cooperate on
air quality modeling, monitoring, and effects
research.
Emissions Inventories
Emissions inventories provide the foundation for air
quality management programs. They are used to identify
the major sources of air pollution, provide data to input in
air quality models, and track control strategies.
Accuracy of emission inventories has always been a pri-
ority in Canada and the United States. Both countries
have been updating and improving their estimates for the
1990 inventory using the latest information obtained
from states/provinces, source measurements, and special
study findings. The expanded use of GEM in both coun-
tries is expected to improve the accuracy and timeliness of
emissions data. Numerous tools also have been developed
to analyze emissions trends and forecasts. The countries
are continuing to meet biannually to increase the level of
collaboration in compiling emissions inventories.
Overall, emissions have decreased in Canada and the
United States. SC>2 emissions decreased significantly in
both countries. In the United States, NOX and VOCs
increased slightly from 1993 levels, due to more vehicle
miles traveled and increased wildfires. NOX and VOC
emissions data are expected to show decreases in 1995,
when more EPA-mandated mobile-source controls are in
place. In Canada, NOX emissions estimates show a
decrease or flattening between 1980 and 1994. Canada
has been developing industrial and pollution controls
equivalent to those in the United States. These controls
have contributed to the emissions reductions. The two
governments have continued to work together to ensure
emissions inventory data consistency and coordination in
emissions trends analysis.
SC>2, NOX, and VOC Emissions in
Canada and the United States
from 1980 to 2010
SC>2 and NOX emissions are the dominant precursors of
acidic deposition. They also contribute to fine particle
pollution and visibility degradation. NOX and VOCs are
the primary contributors to the formation of ground-level
ozone, which is involved in the formation of acidic com-
pounds in the atmosphere.
Methodologies were revised in 1992 for the three pollu-
tants covered in this report. Methods continue to change
as new models and data are introduced. The 1996
Progress Report includes data on forest-fire emissions and
uses a residential wood-burning model from the U.S.
Department of Interior and U.S. Department of
Agriculture's Forest Service. The report also uses an EPA
growth model incorporating 1991, 1992, and 1993 emis-
sions updates. Emissions estimates for SO2 from mobile
sources were revised using the EPA on-road PM emission
factor model. An EPA mobile-source emissions factor
model was also used to estimate VOC and NOX emissions.
In addition, EPA's Office of Mobile Sources conducted an
extensive off-highway VOC emissions data survey in 1990
that produced more accurate estimates than previous
totals.
The emissions estimates for 1980, 1985, 1990, and
1994 and the projected emissions estimates for 2000 and
2010 are described for each pollutant in the following sec-
tions. The 1990 and 1994 data reported for both Canada
and the United States are preliminary. The 1980 data are
included because 1980 is the base year for measuring
emissions reductions under the acid rain control programs
in both countries. Table 3 summarizes the 1994 emission
-------
SECTION III
Table 3. Emissions Estimates for Canada and the United States, 1994
SO;
NOX
VOCs
(million tonnes1) (million tons1) (million tonnes) (million tons) (million tonnes) (million tons)
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Mobile
Other
Total
13.5
4.6
0.0
1.0
14.9
5.1
0.0
1 .1
7.1
3.7
9.6
1.0
7.8
4.1
10.6
1.1
0.0
10.4
7.7
3.0
0.0
11.4
8.5
3.3
19.2
21.1
21.5
23.6
21.1
23.2
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Mobile
Other
Total
0.6
1.6
0.1
0.4
0.7
1.8
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.5
1.2
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.3
0.1
neg.
0.8
0.7
1.2
neg.
0.9 .
0.8
1.3
2.7
3.0
2.0
2.2
2.7
3.0
Total
21.9
24.1
23.5
25.9
23.8
26.2
Notes: One ton is equal to 0.9 tonnes; 1 tonne is equal to 1.1 tons; total is not the raw data total of enumerated items due to rounding of
numbers.
estimates for Canada and the United States. Figures 2, 3,
and 4 summarize the SC^ NOX, and VOC emissions esti-
mates for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005, and
2010. The data presented in these figures and Table 3
were obtained from EPA National Air Pollution Emission
Estimates, 1900-1994 (EPA454-R-95-011), published in
October 1995, and from Environment Canada (Pollution
Data Analysis Division).
SO2
The principal anthropogenic sources of SO2 are coal
and oil combustion, smelting, and a few industrial
processes. As shown in Table 3, electric utilities were
responsible for 70 percent of the 1994 SO2 emissions in
the United States and 22 percent in Canada. Industrial
sources were responsible for 23 percent of SC»2 emissions
in the United States and 60 percent of total SC>2 emissions
in Canada.
SC>2 emissions are declining. Overall trends in emis-
sions levels from 1980 to 2010 for Canada and the United
States are presented in Figure 2. In 1980, total estimated
SO2 emissions in the two countries were 28.5 million
tonnes. In 1985, total estimated SO2 emissions in Canada
30
25
20
151
10
11
1980 1985 1990 1994 2000 2005 2010
Year
• Canada • United States • Total
— Estimated emissions - - Projected emissions
Figure 2. S02 Emissions.
and the United States were 24.2 million tonnes. From
1980 to 1994, SO2 emissions in North America were esti-
mated to decline by 6.6 million tonnes, or 23 percent.
SO2 emissions in the United States in 2000 and 2010 are
projected to be 17.4 and 15.7 million tons, respectively.
The totals include emissions from banked or unused
allowance credits. SO2 emissions in Canada in 2000 and
2010 are projected to be 2.8 and 2.9 million tonnes,
24
-------
rogress
Scientific
d Tech
Activities
d E
c o n o m i c
e s e a r c
respectively. Uncertainty bands on the national annual
emissions estimates of SC>2 range from 5 to 10 percent;
the uncertainty bands are larger for regional annual emis-
sions estimates.
The United States' SC>2 utility emissions cap of 8.95
million tons is not expected to be achieved until 2010
because utilities in Phase II are projected to use banked
allowances gained from significant overcompliance in
Phase I.
NO,
The principal anthropogenic source of NOX emissions
is fuel combustion, which occurs in internal combustion
engines, residential and commercial furnaces, industrial
boilers, electric utility boilers and engines, and other mis-
cellaneous equipment. As shown in Table 3, mobile
sources produced 45 percent of NOX emissions in the
United States in 1994 and 60 percent of emissions in
Canada. Electric utilities were responsible for 33 percent
of the 1994 emissions in the United States and 10 percent
in Canada. Industrial sources were responsible for 19 per-
cent of NOX emissions in the United States and 25 percent
of total NOX emissions in Canada.
Figure 3 shows the overall trend for anthropogenic
emissions of NOX in Canada and the United States from
1980 to 2010. In 1980, the total estimated NOX emis-
sions in the two countries were 23 million tonnes.
Estimates of NOX emissions in North America from 1980
to 1994 showed a slight increase of 0.5 million tonnes, or
2 percent. NOX emissions are expected to decline slightly
by 2000, then rise in both countries. NOX emissions in
the United States in 2000 and 2010 are projected to reach
20.7 and 21.6 million tons, respectively. NOX emissions
in Canada in 2000 and 2010 are expected to stay constant
at 2.0 million tonnes per year. Uncertainty bands for
national annual NOX emissions range from 10 to 15 per-
cent and are larger regionally.
VOCs
VOCs contribute to the formation of ground-level
ozone and acidic compounds in the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic emissions of VOCs come from a wide vari-
ety of sources, such as mobile sources and industrial
processes (e.g., chemical manufacturing, petroleum prod-
uct production, and industrial solvent use). As shown in
Table 3, mobile sources produced 36 percent of VOC
emissions in the United States in 1994 and 26 percent of
emissions in Canada. Industrial sources were responsible
for 49 percent of the VOC emissions in the United States
and 30 percent of the total in Canada. There are also
important natural sources of these emissions.
VOC emissions in both countries are expected to
decline by the year 2000, then remain stable through
2010. Overall trends in VOC emissions levels from 1980
to 2010 for Canada and the United States are presented in
Figure 4. In 1985, the total estimated emissions of VOCs
in Canada and the United States were 26.2 million
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Figure 3. NOX Emissions.
25
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SECTION III
tonnes. From 1980 to 1994, VOC emissions in North
America were estimated to decline by 1.8 million tonnes,
or 7 percent. Estimated emissions for the United States
are 19.6 million tons in 2000 and 20.3 million tons in
2010. VOC emissions in Canada in 2000 and 2010 are
projected to reach 2.7 and 2.9 million tonnes, respective-
ly. Uncertainty bands on anthropogenic and natural
emissions of VOCs are large.
Ammonia
Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ammonia are
important in the study of acidic deposition. In the atmos-
phere, ammonia, a nitrogen-containing compound, is
converted to ammonium. Ammonium is deposited to the
earth, leading to the additional loading of nitrogen and
acidification of soil and surface waters. In the atmosphere,
however, ammonia can neutralize acidity, lessening the
effects of acid fog.
EPA and several international organizations have con-
ducted research on ammonia emissions factors. EPA
completed a literature search assessing the most recent
information in an EPA report entided Development and
Selection of Ammonia Emissions Factors (EPA600-R-94-
190). The report recommends several new emissions
factors for fertilizer application and updates information
on ammonia emissions from selective catalytic and nonse-
lective catalytic converters ("ammonia slip"). The report
(publication number PB95-123915) is available from
NTIS at 703 487-4660.
EPA will develop a brief research plan that identifies
source categories in need of more study. This plan will
incorporate research presented at a major international
conference on atmospheric ammonia in October 1995.
Additional research will focus on the following: (1) the
limited test data available for studying large-scale national
and global ammonia emissions; (2) significant industrial
process changes; and (3) the controversy due to the cur-
rent emissions factor or activity data.
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• Canada • United States "Total
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30
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Figure 4. VOC Emissions.
Deposition Monitoring and
Prediction
Airborne pollutants are deposited to earth's surface by
diree processes: wet deposition, dry deposition, and cloud-
water deposition. Wet deposition is estimated by
measuring and analyzing rain and snow. Dry deposition
is estimated by analyzing particles and gases, which can be
difficult and cosdy. Cloudwater deposition usually occurs
at higher elevations, which are often cloudy and fog-
prone. Cloudwater deposition is also difficult to estimate
because it is highly dependent on topography.
Due to the difficulties of measuring dry and cloudwater
deposition, the primary focus of monitoring has been on
measuring and assessing wet deposition. Work is under
way to develop an effective method of combining esti-
mates of dry deposition with wet deposition
measurements to provide comprehensive information on
regional variations.
Monitoring Networks
Canada and die United States have networks that mon-
itor wet deposition and measure air concentrations to
estimate dry deposition. Data from the U.S. and
Canadian networks have been combined in this report to
provide comprehensive deposition information in North
America. Deposition monitoring integration efforts
continue.
Canada
In Canada, the Canadian Air and Precipitation
Monitoring Network (CAPMoN) and provincial net-
works report wet deposition data. Several CAPMoN and
provincial sites also report dry deposition data. CAPMoN
has been providing daily concentration data at some sites
for up to 16 years.
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
United States
In the United States, the National Atmospheric
Deposition Program/National Trends Network
(NADP/NTN) is the largest wet deposition network. It
uses a weekly measurement protocol at approximately 200
sites, some with data records dating from the early 1980s.
The Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring
Network (AIRMoN), under the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, is also part of NADP.
AIRMoN is the worlds oldest wet deposition network.
The daily monitoring at these sites is essential for reliable
ammonium and nitrate data. The United States also has
the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet),
established in 1987, which reported weekly average con-
centration data for 52 sites through September 1995.
CASTNet supplements the NADP/NTN wet deposition
network in areas that do not have monitoring sites, such
as mountain and coastal regions. CASTNet operates in
collaboration with the dry deposition component of
AIRMoN established in 1984.
Findings of Air Pollutant
Monitoring Activities
(Canada/United States)
Wet Deposition/Concentrations
Wet sulfate deposition and concentration data show a
downward trend in Canada and the United States. Nitrate
concentration and deposition data show no significant
trend.
Acomparison of die 1992 and 1993 deposition patterns
with those of previous years (presented in earlier reports)
shows that the areas receiving the highest deposition
(greater than 30 kg/ha/yr sulfate and 20 kg/ha/yr nitrate)
are in the parts of southern Canada and northern United
States that border the lower Great Lakes. Figures 5 to 8
show the spatial distributions of wet sulfate and nitrate
deposition in 1992 and 1993. The patterns vary consid-
erably in size and shape from year to year depending on
meteorological and emissions variability. Continued
long-term monitoring is needed to quantify the link
between emissions reductions and changes in deposition
and concentrations and to confirm the effectiveness of fur-
ther emissions reductions for both SC>2 and NOX.
For estimating trends, measurements of sulfate and
nitrate concentrations in precipitation are more useful
than amounts of deposited sulfate and nitrate because pol-
lutant concentrations are less affected by annual
fluctuations in precipitation. Figure 9 shows a general
trend toward decreasing concentrations of sulfate in rain
from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, while Figure 10
shows no such trend for nitrate. This is confirmed by sta-
tistical studies in both Canada and the United States.
In the United States, a trends analysis using 1980-1992
wet deposition data showed significant downward trends
in sulfate concentrations at the majority of U.S. measure-
ment sites. Most of these sites are located in the north
central and western parts of the country. Long-term
trends (1983-1992) found sulfate concentrations to be
generally decreasing by 0 to 4 percent per year at most
sites. Similar results have been found in Canada for 1979-
1994. Only a small number showed statistically
significant downward trends in nitrate concentrations.
In addition, the U.S. trends analysis showed a wide-
spread decline in calcium and magnesium concentrations
(largely in the northeastern United States). The decline
appears to have offset the declining sulfate concentrations,
resulting in the acidity of precipitation remaining the
same. Canada had similar results with a trends analysis
using CAPMoN data for 1979-1994. Sulfate and base
cation (calcium, magnesium, and potassium) concentra-
tions decreased at most of the sites tested. Nitrate and
acidity in precipitation showed no consistent change.
In general, the SO2 emissions reductions are reflected in
reductions in sulfate concentrations in precipitation. A
close correlation is found between emissions and declining
deposition across all of eastern North America (see Figure
11). In contrast to sulfate, the nitrate wet deposition
showed no strong correlation with the NOX emissions
(see Figure 12). This does not mean that such a relation-
ship does not exist but that it cannot yet be detected due
to die small change in emissions and the high annual vari-
ability of the integrated wet deposition.
Dry Deposition/Concentrations
Dry deposition is an important component of total
acidic deposition. Rates of dry deposition fluxes in
Canada and the United States are usually determined by
calculating dry deposition as the product of a measured air
concentration and a modeled deposition velocity (which is
a function of the terrain and meteorological data). In
Canada, current investigations are focusing on the uncer-
tainties associated with site-specific dry deposition
modeling that is being conducted by the dry deposition
-------
SECTION III
Figure 7. Figure 8.
Figures 5-8. Spatial Distributions of Wet Sulfate and Nitrate Deposition in 1992 and 1993.
networks in the United States and at one Canadian loca-
tion. Canadian and U.S. measurement and modeling
techniques are routinely compared, and differences (e.g.,
14 percent at 2 nearby sites) are used to assess the source
of the bias and to determine appropriate methods of
merging the data.
Measurements of SC>2 concentrations in air are used
primarily for estimating dry deposition. Figure 13 shows
a map of air concentrations of SC>2 at Canadian and U.S.
sites in 1994. The map confirms results found in previ-
ous years that highest concentrations occur in the Ohio
River Valley and drop off in all directions, most rapidly to
the north into Canada. In general, the concentration
pattern has not changed markedly from the 1991 pattern
shown in the previous progress report.
Air concentration data for five years (1990-1994) were
used in a model to estimate dry deposition. These dry
deposition estimates, when added to the wet deposition
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Experimental Lakes Area
30
20
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
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82 84 86 88 90 92 94
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82 84 86 88 90 92 94
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Kejimkujik
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
40
30
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Figure 9. Sea Salt Corrected S02 Wet Deposition (kg/ha/yr).
data, provide estimated total sulfur deposition. Analyses
of these data are still in progress due to the difficulty of
determining trends with data from only five years and the
remaining research questions regarding dry deposition
monitoring. Results will be reported in the next progress
report. The limited data and statistical regression models
of total sulfur deposition data (wet plus dry deposition)
indicate that there were significant decreases at numerous
specific locations between 1990 and 1994.
Predictions (U.S. Models)
A recent U.S. report used the Regional Acid Deposition
Model (RADM) to project the change in sulfur deposition
upon implementation of the CAAA. The model predicts
that most of the northeastern United States and lower
eastern Canada will experience a 30-percent or greater
reduction in total sulfur deposition from 1990 to 2010.
The report, the Add Deposition Standard Feasibility
Study, significantly updates the projection developed by
NAPAP in 1990. The report incorporates an updated
baseline SC*2 emissions inventory, a decision model-based
estimate of SO2 emissions allowance trading, and the
Canadian SC>2 protocol program. The study also uses
projections developed from a newer version of the
RADM, which corrects errors uncovered during the
NAPAP model evaluation. Figures 14 and 15 show 1990
and 2010 annual average total sulfur deposition, respec-
tively, as predicted by RADM for the recent study. Figure
16 shows the percent reduction in predicted annual aver-
age total sulfur deposition between 1990 and 2010. The
new results on projected total annual sulfur deposition
levels are in substantial agreement with the NAPAP 1990
assessment results.
Binational Cooperative Model
Evaluation
Phase 2 of the binational cooperative model evaluation,
the Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study, reported in
the 1994 Progress Report, was completed. The peer
29
-------
SECTION III
Experimental Lakes Area
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82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Figure 10. N03 Wet Deposition (kg/ha/yr).
82 84 86 88 90 92 94
30
20
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Kejimkujik
82 84 86 88 90 92 94
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20
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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year
Figure 11. Normalized Annual S02 Emissions and Sulfate Wet
Deposition, Sea Salt Corrected, Over Eastern North America.
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year
Figure 12. Normalized Annual NOX Emissions and Nitrate
Deposition Over Eastern North America.
30
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
--J
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Figure 13. Median 1994 S02 Air Concentrations at CAPMoN and CASTNet Sites.
Figure 14. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition,
1990.
Figure 15. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition,
2010.
31
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SECTION III
review panel confirmed earlier conclusions that the com-
plex models could be used to develop current estimates as
well as to project annual sulfur and nitrogen deposition.
No new limitations were identified.
Ozone Monitoring, Trends,
and Research
Ozone is formed when NOX and VOCs react in the
atmosphere. Adverse effects of ozone include human
health impacts and damaging effects on forests and agri-
cultural crops. Ground-level ozone is the main
component of smog. Each country has its own approach
for summarizing annual ozone concentrations. Although
urban trends are decreasing, nonurban regional trends
have not been addressed.
Ozone research and modeling are designed to address
critical issues concerning ozone, including its formation,
atmospheric interaction (meteorological factors), trans-
port, and duration of exposure levels, particularly during
summer episodes.
Monitoring
Canada
Ambient air monitoring in Canada is carried out at 142
National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) sites as well as
at a number of additional sites at the provincial, munici-
pal, and industrial levels. The NAPS network is a joint
project of federal, provincial, and municipal governments.
NAPS data are used to gauge the success of, and the need
for, air emissions control policies. The NAPS sites are
located primarily in urban locations and include ozone
measurements at most sites, with NOx and VOCs moni-
tored at a subset of these.
Background ozone measurements are made at eight
CAPMoN sites, which also measure airborne nitrogen
compounds and, in some cases, VOCs. Canada has
approximately 1 59 ozone monitoring sites in total, 95 of
which monitor airborne nitrogen compounds and 37 of
which monitor VOCs. With some of its highest ozone
concentration levels reported by nonurban monitoring
stations in southern Ontario, Canada recognizes the need
for more rural and background monitoring.
Legend
0-20
20 - 25
«»t 25-30
•B 30-35
•• >35
Figure 16. Annual Average RADM-Predicted Total Sulfur Deposition,
Full CAAA Implementation, 2010, Percent Reduction From 1990
Control.
United States
The U.S. ozone monitoring program is principally
comprised of three related networks: State and Local Air
Monitoring Stations (SLAMS), National Air Monitoring
Stations (NAMS), and Photochemical Assessment
Monitoring Stations (PAMS). These monitoring net-
works conform to uniform criteria for monitor siting,
instrumentation, and quality assurance. The SLAMS net-
work is designed to locate sites in areas where EPA and
states decided monitors are needed, thus allowing states
and local agencies to develop networks tailored to imme-
diate monitoring needs. Data from the SLAMS network
are used for a variety of purposes, including determining
compliance with the NAAQS for ozone. There are cur-
rently 553 SLAMS ozone monitors operating in the
United States. The NAMS network is a subset of moni-
tors selected from the SLAMS to comply with the CAA
requirement to constitute a long-term national network
for urban area-oriented ambient monitoring. Used as a
systematic, consistent database for air quality comparisons
and trends analysis, the NAMS monitors are located in
areas of greatest population concentration and highest
population exposure. Currently, there are 235 NAMS
monitors operating across the United States.
In February 1993, EPA initiated the PAMS program to
establish enhanced monitoring networks in all ozone
nonattainment areas classified as serious, severe, or
extreme. Each PAMS network consists of as many as five
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Lower Fraser Valley
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Year
Quebec (MUC)
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Year
Ontario
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Year
Atlantic Region
*tuu
.a 300
S3
A 200
* 100
0
1..
.
.
Illl
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Year
*Hours not adjusted lor number of stations In each region.
The number of stations has not changed since 1988.
*1995 data preliminary.
Figure 17. Number of Hours with Ozone Exceedances Greater than 82 ppb, 1980-1995, in Four Canadian Areas.
monitoring stations. About 70 of the expected 100 PAMS
surface air quality and meteorology monitoring stations
are operating across the nation. The data collected at the
PAMS include measurements of ozone precursors. In
addition to providing a long-term perspective on changes
in atmospheric concentrations in ozone and its precursors,
the PAMS program will specifically help to improve emis-
sions inventories, provide input to photochemical grid
models, supply information to evaluate population expo-
sure, and provide routine measurements of selected toxic
air pollutants.
Trends
Canada
A recent extensive analysis of ground-level ozone con-
centrations in eastern Canada shows that the heavily
populated southern portion of Ontario is exposed to the
highest ozone concentrations. In this area, maximum
hourly ozone concentrations have exceeded 190 parts per
billion (ppb). At some sites, the acceptable air quality
objective of 82 ppb can be exceeded on as much as 25 per-
cent of summer days. Trend analysis of summertime
average daily maximum ozone concentrations for eastern
Canadian sites showed no consistent pattern. At all sites,
there was an annual variability in peak ozone levels and in
the frequency of hours with ozone concentrations above
the maximum acceptable objective.
Figure 17 illustrates similar results, showing die number
of hours, per year between 1980 and 1995 when hourly
average ozone exceeded 82 ppb in the Lower Fraser Valley,
the Ontario and Quebec (greater Montreal area) portions
of the Windsor-Quebec corridor, and the Atlantic region.
The year 1988 stands out as a high ozone year in all the
problem regions of Canada as well as in U.S. data. These
results emphasize the importance of meteorology in gen-
erating high ozone levels and serve as a warning. In a
polluted airshed, given the right meteorological
33
-------
SECTION III
conditions, the number of exceedances encountered in
1988 could occur again in the absence of additional con-
trol actions.
United States
U.S. analyses focus on long-term trends and large areas.
Figure 18 shows a map of 10-year trends (1985-1994) in
maximum ozone concentrations for northern, eastern, and
midwestern geographic regions. Nationally, the ozone lev-
els dropped 12 percent compared to 1985. The regions
depicted in Figure 18 show a similar pattern; all four had
lower ozone levels in 1994 than in 1985. The selected
areas also mirror another national statistic: All regions had
the highest ozone values in 1988 during the 10-year peri-
od, and all but one (New York, New Jersey) observed
lowest levels for the period in 1992. Shorter-term urban-
scale trends are addressed in Section IV of this report.
Research
The North American Research Strategy for
Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) research program, initi-
ated in the United States and now including Canada and
Mexico, was designed to address ground-level ozone, its
formation, the nature of its precursors, and ozone source-
to-exposure relationships. NARSTO will provide the
structure for a more systematic and coordinated interac-
tion on oxidant modeling than has previously occurred. It
is expected that the collective effort of all three countries
will significantly enhance understanding and improve
efforts to control ground-level ozone. NARSTO will also
provide a forum for Canada and the United States to com-
pare and coordinate evaluation efforts for the new ozone
models in the same spirit as for acid rain. Research from
NARSTO is expected to provide information for future
U.S. ozone program initiatives.
J 0.2
0.15
^ I 0.1
I 0.05
0.2
Illlllllll Illlllllll
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year
J
Year
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.2
Illlllllll Illlllllll
Q
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year
Figure 18. Trend in Average Second Maximum Values (in ppm) for Ozone (by Region for Trend Sites).
34
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
The Canadian NOX/VOC Science Program was estab-
lished to respond to a number of study initiative
questions; the answers will be incorporated in a science
assessment to be published in mid-1996. The assessment
will focus on three key areas: (1) improving scientific
understanding of the formation and loss of ozone; (2)
establishing effective oxidant grid-based simulation mod-
els; and (3) developing reliable and timely emissions
inventories. The science program also includes activities
to ensure that an adequate monitoring system is in place
to track the effects of pollutant abatement measures and to
assess the current ground-level ozone air quality objective.
Aquatic Effects Research and
Monitoring
Overall, the data from aquatic effects monitoring indi-
cate that reduced SC>2 emissions are reflected in decreasing
sulfate in lake waters. Many factors beyond atmospheric
deposition, however, influence lake acidity. Only some
waters monitored from 1981 to 1993 exhibit statistically
significant improvements in pH or acid neutralizing
capacity (ANC); most sampled waters did not. Recent
research on watershed nitrogen dynamics indicates that
nitrogen could counteract the beneficial impact of SO2
emissions reductions. Results from fish community sur-
veys in Quebec show that a large number of fish
populations have been lost this century due to lake acidi-
fication. Monitoring of water birds in Canada suggests
that fish-eating birds remain at risk in regions affected by
acid rain, but where water chemistry is improving (e.g.,
Ontario's Sudbury region), waterfowl recovery can follow.
Chemical Trends (Canada and the
United States)
Surface-water chemistry has been monitored at many
locations since the early 1980s (the most recent data is
from 1993) to verify the ecological benefit accruing from
emissions control. Some locations (see Figure 19) have
statistically significant trends in sulfate levels. Of the 8
sites shown in Figure 19, all but 1 (Kejimkujik in Nova
Scotia) showed declining sulfate. An extension (i.e., with
more sites and longer records) of an earlier analysis of
water quality trends in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland,
Quebec, and Ontario yielded results similar to those
reflected in Figure 19. Fifty-one percent (of 202 sites)
showed decreasing sulfate, 1 percent was increasing, and
48 percent had no significant trend.
Most decreasing sulfate trends occur in Ontario and
Quebec where the largest absolute deposition reductions
have been observed (see Figure 9). In the Sudbury region
of Ontario, which has been affected by emissions reduc-
tions at both long-range and local sources, more than 80
percent of monitored lakes have declining trends. Most of
this decline occurred by the mid-1980s, however, and has
subsequendy leveled off or even reversed.
Climatic variation appears to be responsible for a short-
term reversal of sulfate trends in lakes from south central
Ontario. The presence of wedands in the drainage basin
of lakes appears to be a factor in delaying the response of
these systems to reduced deposition. All of the sites with
increasing sulfate trends occurred in the Atlantic region,
and most sites with no sulfate trend were in the Adantic
region as well.
Thus far, decreases in surface-water sulfate have led to
only some improvements in water quality. Just two of the
sites in Figure 19 have responded with declining acidity
(or increasing ANC). Lac Laflamme in southern Quebec
and Constable Pond in the Adirondacks of New York are
continuing to acidify (i.e., they have significantly decreas-
ing ANC). Other chemical changes have compensated for
declining sulfate without improving acidity, most notably
declining base cation (e.g., calcium, magnesium, and
potassium) concentrations.
The extended regional analysis showed diat 11 percent
of monitored sites in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland,
Quebec, and Ontario continued to acidify, 33 percent are
recovering, and 56 percent exhibit no statistical trend.
The greatest difference between these results and those
from the earlier analysis is a substantial shift of lakes in
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland from the improving class
to the class without an acidity trend. In New Brunswick,
lakes that continue to acidify have low ANC, whereas
lakes with higher ANC show little acidity trend.
In the Adirondacks, declining sulfate trends were
remarkably consistent among all lakes monitored, most of
which had decreases in base cation concentrations. This
was especially true where thin till is the dominant surface
geology in the drainage basin. This perhaps indicates that
base cation leaching in these systems is strongly influenced
by exchange reactions in overlying soils as opposed to
mineral weathering, which contributes to deeper
35
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Experimental Lakes Area, No. 239
S ICT I O N III
Lac LaFlamme
Year
Figure 19. Time Series of Annual Averages of Sulfate and ANC (fJ.eq/1).
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and E
conomic Research
groundwaters. Most systems in the Adirondacks show no
evidence of change in either ANC or acidity (hydrogen
ion) at this time.
Nitrate concentrations decreased recently in the
Adirondacks as well. Although an increasing trend was
noted in the 1980s, there now appear to be no significant
trends in nitrate during 1982-1994. Regional climatic
factors might play an important role in this recent
phenomenon.
Long-term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental
Forest in New Hampshire indicate that although only
small changes in stream pH have been observed, large
quantities of base cations have been lost from soils. These
losses are apparendy due to declines in base cation deposi-
tion and leaching by acidic deposition. As a result,
response of soil and streamwater chemistry to decreases in
acidic deposition might be substantially delayed.
Evaluation of long-term declines in dissolved organic
carbon at the Experimental Lakes Area of northwestern
Ontario showed diat both climate warming and acidifica-
tion might be causes and that changes in the lakes
observed over the last 20 years might have been influenced
by a resultant increase in water penetration by ultraviolet
light. Both the Hubbard Brook and Experimental Lakes
results show that complex ecological interactions must be
considered when attempting to relate chemical trends in
surface waters to changes in acidic deposition.
Although it is clear that SO2 emissions reductions are
reflected in decreasing sulfate in surface waters, it is equal-
ly clear that there are many factors beyond atmospheric
deposition that influence acidity trends. The substantial
shifts in classification of acidity trends (e.g., from
"improving" to "no trend") with just three years of addi-
tional data confirm that existing short-term data do not
demonstrate future changes reliably; long-term data are
required.
Model Application (United States)
Nitrogen Bounding Study
EPA scientists have modeled the potential combined
effects of atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition on
the chemistry of, lakes and streams in the eastern United
States. The scientists adapted the Model of Acidification
of Groundwater in Catchments to project potential effects
on lake and stream chemistry for three regions of the east-
ern United States (Adirondacks, Mid-Appalachian
Region, and Southern Blue Ridge Province). The results
indicate that nitrogen can play a very significant short-
and long-term role in a watershed and can offset the ben-
efits of sulfur reductions.
EPA scientists conducted model simulations for 50
years into the future. Projections of sulfur and nitrogen
deposition levels were based on results expected from
implementation of the CAAA as well as orfier more
restrictive deposition reduction scenarios. The extent of
potential future effects depends on how rapidly the atmos-
pheric deposition of nitrogen compounds moves
watersheds toward a state of nitrogen saturation (i.e.,
input equals output on an annual basis). The time to
watershed nitrogen saturation varies depending on forest
age, historic and future levels of nitrogen deposition,
future changes in ambient temperatures, water stress, land
use, and other variables. Lacking the current capability to
accurately estimate the time required to reach watershed
nitrogen saturation at regional scales, the nitrogen bound-
ing study instead assumed an encompassing range of times
(including never). The study then estimated the potential
consequent effects on surface-water ANC. Thus, these
modeling analyses effectively bounded the range of possi-
ble future deposition levels and water chemistry outcomes.
The model projections (see Table 4) are for specific tar-
get populations (i.e., groups of lakes or streams with
watersheds of similar size, land, and other characteristics),
not for all watersheds in die respective regions. For exam-
ple, if the Adirondacks watersheds progress no further
towards nitrogen saturation, model projections indicate a
reduction from 19 percent of the target population being
chronically acidic in 1984 to 11 percent in the simulated
year. In contrast, if all watersheds modeled move to nitro-
gen saturation in 50 years, then the percentage of
chronically acidic waters is projected to be 43 percent of
the target population in the simulated year.
Field Study (United States)
Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation
Experiment
Results from this experiment illustrate the rapidity with
which some forested watersheds in the northeastern
United States might reach nitrogen saturation in response
to increased nitrogen loadings.
A paired watershed manipulation experiment has been
under way since the mid-1980s at the Bear Brook
37
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SECTION III
Table 4. Projections for Year 2040 for Percentage of Waters with Either Chronic Acidity or High Potential for Episodic Acidity.
Time to watershed nitrogen saturation varies as indicated. Deposition ranges from natural background to levels resulting from implementation of the CAM.
Target
Population
Adirondack;
(703 lakes)
Mid-Appalachians
(4298 streams)
Southern Blue Ridge
(1323 streams)
aria
Observed1
N saturation 50 yr.
N saturation 1 00 yr.
N saturation 250 yr.
N saturation never
19
6-43
3-26
0-15
0-11
4
0-9
0-5
0-4
0-0
0
0-4
0-0
0-0
0-0
Observed1
N saturation 50 yr.
N saturation 100 yr.
N saturation 250 yr.
N saturation never
55
53-67
51-57
44-54
44-54
27
5-41
5-37
5-28
4-23
6
4-16
4-16
3-14
2-11
11984 for lakes; 1985 for streams
Adapted from EPA Office of Air and Radiation. Acid Deposition Standard Feasibility Study Report to Congress (EPA430-R-95-001 a), October
1995.
Watershed in Maine. Manipulations of the watershed
(i.e., additions of dry ammonium sulfate with distinct iso-
topic signatures) for both sulfur and nitrogen tripled the
annual catchment loading of sulfur and quadrupled the
annual loading of nitrogen. In response, there was an
increase of stream concentrations and watershed fluxes of
hydrogen ions, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium,
sulfate, nitrate, and aluminum relative to the control;
chloride remained nearly unchanged; ANC declined (see
Figure 20). No clear trends in dissolved organic carbon or
silica were evident. After 5 years of manipulation, average
annual sulfate concentration significantly increased by 90
percent (see Figure 20). Nitrate concentrations have also
increased markedly, not only during periods of vegetation
dormancy but also during the summer growing season,
indicating the movement of nitrogen to greater soil
depths.
Chesapeake Bay (United States)
Several models were integrated to investigate
Chesapeake Bay water quality processes and their sensitiv-
ity to external nutrient loading. The models included a
watershed model that generated nutrient loadings from
subbasins and a hydrodynamic model of the bay that
included a water quality model coupled to a sediment
chemistry model. Atmospheric deposition to the water-
shed and water surface was estimated using RADM. The
models studies indicated that improvements in dissolved
oxygen could be expected based on feasible reductions
(20-30 percent of nitrogen and phosphorus) in nutrient
loadings.
Biomonitoring (Canada)
Studies of the impact of acidity (low pH) on fish and
other biota indicate that species richness and the popula-
tion of acid-sensitive fish species decline with lower pH.
Critical pH levels may vary, and aluminum toxicity plays
a key role in certain waters. The inherent variability pre-
sent in aquatic communities means that longer
monitoring records are required to distinguish between
random change and change related to pollutant emissions
control.
Aquatic biota have been monitored annually since 1987
in 36 lakes and 21 rivers across eastern Canada, represent-
ing a broad range of terrain sensitivities and sulfate
deposition levels. The data analyzed to date serve as a
baseline from which to measure future effects of emissions
reductions on aquatic biology. These findings indicate
that more acidic rivers (pH<5.0) on the average have 2.3
38
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Manipulation
Start
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Year
Figure 20. Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation Begun at the End of
1989 with Addition of Dry Ammonium Sulfate to Western Part of
Watershed.
Note: Dotted lines represent eastern port of the watershed. Solid lines
represent western part of the watershed.
fish species, and more neutral rivers (pH>5.0) on the aver-
age have 5.1 fish species. The more acidic lakes (pH<5.6)
average fewer species than do the more neutral lakes
(pH>5.6). Although the total number offish caught per
unit of effort was actually higher in acidic lakes, the annu-
al variability of the catch was twice that of neutral lakes.
Assessments of critical pH levels in Nova Scotia rivers
indicated that those with a pH less than 4.7 have lost
Atlantic salmon; those between 4.7 and 5.0 have reduced
stocks; and those with pH greater than 5.0 support
healthy populations.
Acidity and Fish Communities in
Quebec
Fish species have been surveyed for 253 lakes in soudi-
ern Quebec. The lakes vary widely in size, pH, and level
of acidic deposition. The regions receiving the highest lev-
els of acidic deposition (>20 kg/ha/yr) experience decline
in species richness and biomass with decreasing pH. As
long as pH is greater than 6, there are no apparent effects
on fish; however, nearly 75 percent of fish species are lost
as pH declines from 6 to 5. These survey results indicate
large resource losses. By making use of the relationship
between fish species richness and pH in two regions
(Outaouais and Abitibi) (see Figure 21), Canadian scien-
tists estimated that since 1900 at least 13,500 fish
populations have disappeared from the 48,468 sensitive
lakes found there.
Fish populations in certain other regions show litde
effect from acidic deposition. Some effects are attributed
to natural organic acidity.
Species Richness = -6,66 + 1,94 (pH)
r = 0,55
P <0,001 .
4.5
6.5
5 5.5 6
pH (units)
Figure 21. Relationship Between the Number of Fish and pH, 188
Lakes From the Outaouais and Abitibi Hydrographic Regions of
Quebec
39
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SECTION III
The presence of the Canadian water bird, the common loon, is a key indicator of the health of Canadian lakes.
Water Birds
Results of studies suggest that fish-eating birds remain
at risk in regions affected by acid rain. Where restoration
of aquatic systems is occurring (e.g., Sudbury, Ontario),
recovery of waterfowl populations can follow and indicate
biological improvements.
Though aquatic ecosystem restoration around Sudbury
is at an early stage, improvements in benthic biota (organ-
isms living at the bottom of a body of water) and some fish
have been observed. The quality of breeding habitat for
some waterfowl species is expected to improve as well.
Monitoring of small lakes northeast of Sudbury showed
that the combined breeding density of fish-eating species
(common loon, common merganser, and hooded mer-
ganser) has nearly doubled between 1985 and 1995 (from
30 to 58 breeding pairs/100 km2). Small lakes are the pre-
ferred breeding habitat for many waterfowl species.
Breeding densities in the most acidified waters (pH<5.5)
have not changed and remain low. Populations in less
degraded areas (pH>5.5), generally near the periphery of
the region, have increased.
Because the common loon relies on fish, it is a key
bioindicator linking the effects of acid rain to higher
trophic levels of larger lakes in eastern Canada. The
breeding success of the common loon is monitored as part
of a national volunteer-based survey. The survey, con-
ducted from 1987 to 1994, found that loons avoid
breeding on acidic lakes (pH<5.5) and, when they do
breed there, are less successful (fewer chicks fledged per
breeding attempt). In Atlantic Canada, however, the
number of loons observed breeding between 1988-1995 at
the acid-stressed Kejimkujik National Park in southwest-
ern Nova Scotia has remained stable, but production of
young varies annually; it is generally low (less than half the
level of production in Ontario) and controlled by fish
availability.
40
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Rain National Early Warning System (ARNEWS) plots
are in declining condition—persistent dieback of more
than 15 percent of the crown has occurred for 3 years.
These plots are on acid-sensitive soils, with trees not
recovering from natural stresses. The plots are on the
fringe of the Canadian Shield, also known as the
Laurentian Plateau (a huge rocky region that covers half of
the land area of Canada and dips into the United States to
form the Adirondack Mountains of New York and
Superior Uplands of the Midwest). Tree health continues
to be affected by insects, drought, and other stresses.
An inexpensive monitoring method has been developed
and tested. The method, which has the potential for
determining spatial distribution patterns of ozone expo-
sure and for monitoring forests in remote areas, will be
incorporated in ARNEWS monitoring activities.
Needle damage (flecking) has been observed on white
pine, white spruce, red spruce, and balsam fir in eastern
Canada and on Douglas fir in British Columbia. The
damage did not appear to be caused by weather, insects, or
diseases and resembled pine damage caused by ozone that
has been reported elsewhere.
Forest Health Monitoring
Canadian and U.S. forest health monitoring continues
to find no evidence of widespread forest decline associated
with acidic deposition. The eastern North American
hardwood forest is generally in good health. There is evi-
dence, however, that acidic deposition can cause
discernible effects in forests suffering from other forms of
stress, such as drought or high-elevation temperature
extremes. For example, there is birch decline near
Canada's Bay of Fundy due to acid fog and red spruce
decline at high elevations. In addition, in 1995, symp-
toms of ozone damage on ozone-sensitive plant species
were found on more than 50 percent of 105 forested
ozone monitoring sites throughout the northeastern
United States.
Canada
In 1994, forest health monitoring activities in Canada
documented changes in tree condition. A series of Acid
41
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SECTION III
The cause-and-effect relationship between acidic fog
and birch damage, suggested in the 1994 Progress Report,
has been confirmed. In 1979, the health of birch stands
in southwestern New Brunswick began to decline. The
spatial distribution of the decline coincided with the pres-
ence of acidic fogs with measured pH less than 3.5.
Observed damage symptoms included the browning of
leaves, premature leaf fall, and twig and branch death.
Damage could not be accounted for by the presence of
insects and/or diseases. Tree mortality in sample plots was
several times the mortality in areas not affected by the acid
fog. In addition, the degree of damage and rate of recov-
ery coincided with the frequency of the acidic fogs. The
data support a cause-and-effect relationship between the
damage and the pollutants.
Soil monitoring shows decreases in soil nutrients in
areas of higher pollutant deposition, suggesting a possible
impact on forest health. Monitoring data that tracked the
health of sugar maple show increased levels of crown
transparency in areas of higher nitrate and sulfate
deposition.
In other activities, Canada is determining critical loads
for forests using models to predict changes in forest con-
dition as a result of sulfate and nitrate deposition. A
southern Ontario study calculated critical loads for main-
taining long-term acidity levels in upland forests. In the
northern part of the study area, part of the Canadian
Shield, soils are currently subjected to atmospheric sulfate
and nitrogen deposition in excess of critical loads. This
sensitivity to acid precipitation is primarily due to shallow
and weathering resistant soils and soil parent materials
that are mostly granitic. When average dieback levels as
measured in the North American Maple Program are
superimposed, it is clear that dieback is higher in areas
where critical loads are exceeded. Other studies confirm
that dieback is also closely related to tree health.
Effects of Sulfate and Ozone on
Vegetation
Ambient levels of sulfate and nitrate deposition interact
with the developing cuticle of a leaf/needle and alter its
structure and chemical composition. This process prema-
turely and artificially ages the leaf/needle and
consequently stunts tree growth. This interaction has
been demonstrated on declining red spruce along a 500
km coastal acidic fog/ozone pollution gradient in the Gulf
of Maine/Bay of Fundy region. The pollutants also affect
how the needle surfaces react to water. This has implica-
tions for foliar uptake of acidic ions.
Pollutants also cause needle surfaces to become wet
more easily, affecting absorption of acidic ions. A signifi-
cant correlation between increases in leaf sulfate content
due to foliar absorption and a loss of frost hardiness was
found in trees exposed to sulfate-containing acidic mist.
This correlation further implicates pollutants in the dete-
rioration of red spruce at high elevations in the
Appalachians.
Research has also demonstrated effects of ozone fumi-
gation on forest trees, particularly white pine. Studies
indicate that younger foliage was more sensitive than older
foliage. Concentrations of ozone in fumigation experi-
ments, however, show little effect on the setting of seeds.
This indicates that the reproductive capacity of trees, even
in the nonattainment areas of eastern Canada, is not
affected by ambient levels of ozone. <
United States
Results from inventory and monitoring activities con-
ducted dirough 1994 do not show any evidence of
regional-scale forest decline in the northeastern United
States. More than 95 percent of some 5,700 trees sur-
veyed throughout New England were classified as
"healthy" with respect to tree canopy condition.
Approximately 85 percent of the trees also showed no sign
of damage such as decay, damaged foliage, or dead tops.
Indicators of decay (e.g., conks, rotten wood) were most
common, affecting some 9 percent of sample trees. In cer-
tain cases, specific damage is commonly associated with
certain species (e.g., beech bark disease cankers on
American beech tiees). Damage levels have not increased
noticeably since data collection began in 1993.
Symptoms of'ozone damage to ozone-sensitive plant
species were found on 58 percent of 71 ozone biomoni-
toring plots in New England and on 38 percent of 34
visited sites in the Great Lake states (see Figure 22).
Damage occurred throughout the region except for the
northern and western parts of Maine that are the most
remote from population centers. This is an increase from
the roughly 10 percent of plots showing damage in 1993.
The increase is likely due to changes in the sampling
methodology. Sampling across the whole region was
restricted to a two-week window in August, thereby max-
imizing the cumulative effects of ozone damage. These
results indicate that ozone levels and climate conditions in
1994 were such that damage occurred in the field, at least
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
• Injury Present
o Injury Not Present
0 Not Evaluated
Figure 22. Ozone Injury to Plants.
to sensitive plant species. The effects of ozone damage on
growth, productivity, or survival of less-sensitive plant
species are not yet clear.
Aluminum-Calcium Interactions
Calcium is a major tree nutrient with key roles in wood
formation and maintenance of cell walls. Concentrations
of plant-available calcium have been decreasing for six
decades in forest soils in the northeastern United States.
Proposed explanations include increased uptake due to
increased forest growth and increased leaching due to
acidic deposition. New research in red spruce forests in
the northeastern United States suggests a third explana-
tion: Aluminum is mobilized in the mineral soil, then
transported into the forest floor in a form that reduces cal-
cium storage. Aluminum has a high affinity for organic
binding sites and is to some degree able to displace calci-
um, which is then more easily leached from the ecosystem.
Increased aluminum saturation also reduces the retention
of calcium from atmospheric sources. The loss of calcium
eventually can cause reduced growth and stress tolerance
in trees. Acidic deposition compounds the effect by
increasing the rate at which aluminum is mobilized and
available to displace calcium in the plant root zone.
Forest Decline in Northwestern
Pennsylvania
High mortality rates have been found in recent years in
a specific forested area (40,000 hectares) in the northwest-
ern part of Pennsylvania. This area has experienced
droughts in 1988, 1991, and 1995 as well as many years
of defoliation by a variety of insects. Sugar maple is a
major component of the ecosystem and the most serious-
ly affected species. Mapping and analysis of the affected
area indicate that mortality and decline have been greatest
on drier sites and on unglaciated, calcium- and magne-
sium-poor soils. Adjacent sugar maple stands on
glaciated, calcium- and magnesium-rich soils are healthy.
Decline started earlier, is more severe in higher elevation
stands, and occurs across an acidic deposition gradient.
Research is under way to examine the interacting factors.
Results are expected by 1997.
Visibility
Canada
Canada has been conducting studies on visibility at four
monitoring sites across the country to determine which
types of aerosols contribute to the deterioration of visibil-
ity and the effects different aerosols' chemical classes have
on visibility. The four sites are: (1) the lower Fraser River
Valley in British Columbia on the west coast, (2) Waterton
Lakes International Park on the border of Alberta and
43
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SECTION III
Montana, (3) Egbert in south central Ontario about 70
km north of Toronto, and (4) St. Andrews in New
Brunswick on the Maine border. Each of the sites has an
Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual
Environments (IMPROVE) module A capability that
measures fine mass and absorption and the total amount
of light scattered by an aerosol.
Some preliminary findings from the studies include the
following:
* The Vancouver area and industrial sources on both sides
of the Canadian and American border are the most
important sources of aerosols in the Eraser Valley. In
addition, and of some importance to parallel studies, a
strong aerosol plume from the petroleum refinery area
in Anacortes, Washington, has affected the Skagit Valley
in the state. This suggests the influence of transbound-
ary transport in visibility reduction in the region.
* About two-thirds of the air pollution that reduces visi-
bility in the Waterton Lakes International Park and
Montana's Glacier National Park seems to come from
the Canadian side of the border and one-third from the
American side. About half of the air pollution from
Canada appears to come from sources within Alberta.
* During a period of intense pollution in 1992, testing at
Egbert showed that sulfate aerosols were the dominant
factor in poor visibility.
^ A comparison of monitoring results from Alberta,
Ontario, and New Brunswick shows that Egbert has the
worst visibility and Waterton Lakes has the best visibil-
ity.
Since current models are limited in their ability to deal
with humidity, more work is being conducted on the rela-
tionship between relative humidity, the growth of sulfate
particles, and light scattering.
Current Conditions
A national data set using visibility measurements was
created to collect data at airports across the country from
1951 to 1990. The data show that visibility is best in the
summer—approximately 120 km in the Yukon and
Northwest Territories, as well as northern British
Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Visibility, however, is only 60 km in lower mainland
British Columbia and less than 30 km in the lower Great
Lakes region of Ontario as well as in Nova Scotia and New
Brunswick on the east coast. In the winter, visibility con-
ditions change. There is a broad band of low visibility, 30
or 40 km, which runs from the Arctic Ocean deep into the
prairie provinces.
United States
The current U.S. visibility monitoring program
includes about 60 sites in national parks and wilderness
areas. The objectives of visibility monitoring are to: (1)
document current visibility levels in federally protected
areas (i.e., national parks and wilderness areas); (2) gather
information needed to identify sources of current visibili-
ty impairment; and (3) document visibility trends needed
to determine progress towards the national visibility goals
of no impairment in protected areas from manmade pol-
lution sources.
Visibility monitoring programs typically photographi-
cally document a scene under various levels of visibility.
Since quantitative information is difficult to extract from
photographs, visibility monitoring also involves the use of
instruments that record optical characteristics of the
atmosphere to determine the composition and concentra-
tion of visibility-reducing aerosols. Optical instruments
usually measure either the scattering (i.e., light scattered
by molecules) or extinction coefficient (which relates to
how well a landscape can be seen). Aerosol monitoring
determines the composition of visibility-reducing aerosols
to help identify the source type and strength of particles
and gaseous precursors to secondary particles.
Visibility monitoring in national parks and wilderness
areas has continued under the IMPROVE protocols (see
Figure 23). The IMPROVE program published new
monitoring and data analysis technical guidance in 1995
and is planning to publish the next edition of its periodic
report on visibility, Spatial and Temporal Patterns and
Long-Term Trends of the Chemical Composition of Haze in
the United States, in 1996.
Several special studies also have been undertaken to
characterize the cause of visibility impairment. Fieldwork
for one of the studies, the Southeastern Aerosol and
Visibility Study, was conducted in 1995 in Great Smoky
Mountains National Park. The study was designed to
enhance understanding of fine particle characteristics
under humid summer conditions in the southeastern
United States.
Key topics of ongoing and future investigations include
the following: (1) measurement and apportionment of
-------
Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Courtesy of Alt Resources Specialists, Fort Collins, Colorado
• IMPROVE Sites
• NFS IMPROVE Protocol Sites
n ISFS IMPROVE Protocol Sites
A FWS IMPROVE Protocol Sites
+ NESCAUM Sites
A Tahoe Sites
V.I.
Figure 23. Map of US. Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) Sites.
absorption, (2) determination of the acidity of sulfate
aerosols, (3) improvement of the understanding of die
effect of carbon-based particles on visibility impairment,
(4) improvement in the understanding of die effects of
water, and (5) development of better assessment tech-
niques to identify source types and regions and to evaluate
die effects of changes in emissions.
Current Conditions
Average natural visibility in the West is about 120-160
miles. The best average visibility, at greater than 90 miles,
is found only in the Colorado Plateau, central Rockies,
and Great Basin regions. Moving east or west from this
area, die visibility decreases quite rapidly, to approximate-
ly 10-20 miles along the West Coast and to less than 10
miles in much of the eastern United States, where the esti-
mated natural mean visibility is about 70-90 miles. There
are differences in visibility in the East and West. Visual
ranges are more than six times better in most parts of the
West than in most areas east of the Mississippi.
In the East, 60-70 percent of the visibility impairment
can be attributed to sulfates. The sulfate contribution to
reduced visual air quality decreases further west where
organics, nitrates, and soils have larger contributions to
visibility impairment. In southern Arizona, New Mexico,
and southwest Texas, the sulfate contribution is 40-50 per-
cent; in the Colorado Plateau and central Rockies it is
30-40 percent. In Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon, the sulfate
contribution is less than 30 percent. In southern
California, die sulfate contribution is 15 percent.
Carbon-based particles contribute approximately 20
percent to manmade visibility impairment in die East,
while in most parts of the West they contribute 30-40 per-
cent. In the Northwest, where diere is a significant
amount of prescribed fire and agricultural burning, die
carbon-based particle contribution to reduced visibility is
typically 50 percent or greater.
Wind-blown dust is usually the third largest contribu-
tor to visibility impairment in the West; nitrates are
typically less than 10 percent nationally. The one
45
-------
SECTION III
exception to these general trends is at the southern
California monitoring site, where nitrates often cause
more than 50 percent of the visibility impairment.
Seasonal Changes in Visibility
Impairment
Figure 24 summarizes annual seasonal averages for four
areas of the United States: the Southwest, southern
California, the Northwest, and the East. The height of the
bar corresponds to the concentration in units of micro-
grams per cubic meter (ug/m3). The height of the shaded
patterns is proportional to the contribution of various par-
ticles to visibility degradation. In most cases, the summer
months are the haziest, and the winter months are the
clearest. The relative contribution of each paniculate
species tends not to vary from season to season.
ORGANIC NITRATE SOIL SULFATE
Effects on Materials
United States
Current research on the effects and economic impact of
acidic deposition on materials includes studies on degra-
dation of bridges, tall buildings, and cultural resources.
There were difficulties in assessing the impact of acidic
deposition on bridge degradation. These difficulties were
the result of the inherent variability of estimating bridge
condition and local deposition levels and the presence of
other unobserved factors.
The tall building study is examining buildings more
than 10 stories in Chicago to estimate a relationship
between the level of acidic deposition and the annual
change in building value, controlling for maintenance
expenditures. Results are expected to be available at the
end of 1996.
Cultural resources are defined as cultural properties
(e.g., historic buildings, monuments, burial markers, art-
works, archival documents) for which replacement value
understates the societal value. In 1996, results are expect-
ed on research measuring the incremental loss of
preservation value due to the accelerated decay caused by
acidic deposition.
WIN SPR SUM AUT ANN WIN SPR SUM AUT ANN
Season Season
'Light Absorbing Carbon
Figure 24. Summary of Season Trends in Visibility Impairment in the
United States.
There has also been research on the physical damage to
cultural resources, and models of sulfate distribution
within limestone and marble have been developed. SC>2
deposition has been found to increase exponentially with
relative humidity on unexposed Salem limestone and
Shelbourne marble because the relative humidity affects
the ability to absorb. Wind speed and turbulence affect
the amount of SO2 delivered to the surface of these
materials.
46
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
Human Health
Acidic Aerosols and Other
Particles
A rapidly growing body of research examines the rela-
tionships between particles (also called PM or aerosols)
and a range of adverse health effects. PM includes phys-
ically and chemically diverse substances that exist as liquid
droplets or solids dispersed in the atmosphere. Studies
attempt to identify associations between health effects
(i.e., a specific symptom, illness, or cause of death) and
PM characteristics such as concentration, size, acidity, and
chemical components (e.g., some particles are sulfates;
some are nitrates; some include metals and other toxics,
etc.). In the eastern United States and Canada, PM often
contains a large quantity of sulfate aerosols. In the west-
ern United States and Canada, where sulfate levels are
lower, PM often contains nitrates.
Scientists use several research methodologies to analyze
the relationship between human health effects and PM.
These include the following:
* Epidemiologic studies identify statistical associations
between monitoring data on the atmospheric levels of
particular pollutants and observed health effects among
certain groups of people, such as the population of a
particular city or all people over 65.
* Clinical studies expose healthy or potentially suscepti-
ble individuals (e.g., asthmatics) to measured amounts
of laboratory-generated pollutants.
* Toxicology studies expose healthy, sick, or aged ani-
mals, human tissue, or cells to laboratory-generated
pollutants.
The adverse health effects potentially associated with
pollution can be acute or chronic. Acute effects include
short-term changes in lung function (i.e., the volume of
air one is able to exhale or inhale), increased cardiopul-
monary hospitalizations, and increased daily rates of
mortality associated with episodic pollution. Chronic
effects include permanently decreased lung function,
increased new cases of bronchitis, and increased mortality
associated with long-term exposure.
The relationship between health effects and paniculate
air pollution was first reported in several epidemiologic
studies of various cities in the United States, Canada, and
Europe. This research showed that daily increases in par-
ticulate levels were associated with increased illness and
death, even at levels below current air quality standards.
Epidemiologic studies published in the last three years
suggest the following:
* Some groups (e.g., the elderly, children, and people
with preexisting diseases) are more susceptible to small
increases in particulate levels.
* Long-term exposure to particles increases the rates of
respiratory and cardiovascular illness and reduces life
span in the general population.
Some studies indicate that health effects are associated
with fine PM2.5 (PM smaller than 2.5 micrometers in
diameter), the acidic portions of PM, or its sulfate com-
ponent. Other studies assert that PM causes health effects
in association with other pollutants such as ozone, SOj,
and metals and becomes difficult to distinguish from the
effects of weather extremes.
Questions concerning which particles are linked to spe-
cific health effects are not yet resolved. There is a growing
consensus among scientists, however, that elevated levels
of ambient particles are associated with increased rates of
illness and death. This consensus is built upon recent epi-
demiologic studies and a 1995 reanalysis of these data that
essentially confirmed the previous analyses.
Results of other recent epidemiologic studies also
strengthen the case linking PM and health. These include
the following:
* Using daily mortality and total suspended particulate
monitoring data for Toronto, Canada, from 1970 to
1990, epidemiologists reported a strong association
between daily particulate levels and cardiac deaths.
* A recently published study provides evidence of associ-
ations between ambient particulate sulfate and
admissions to 168 Ontario hospitals for cardiac and res-
piratory diseases. Data from several U.S. studies in
different cities have indicated similar associations of
varying magnitudes (see Figure 25).
* The "24 Communities" joint Canada/U.S. epidemio-
logic study in 6 Canadian and 18 U.S. communities
was specifically designed to examine the associations
between acidic aerosol exposures and adverse health
effects. The recently reported findings demonstrate that
children who are chronically exposed to acidic PM have
47
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SECTION III
IW./
16.6
.1 16-5
1 16.4
£ 16.3
§16.2
1 16.1
J 16.0
15.9
15.8
T
*
10%
15%
25% I
i *
• 50%
' *
46 8 10 12
Sulfates (Lag 1 day, |ig/m3)
14
16
Figure 25. Respiratory Admissions vs. Sulfates in Ontario Hospitals.
lung function lower than predicted for their age group.
The study also found an increased risk of "bronchitis"
in children residing in high acid PM regions (see Figure
26).
Epidemiologists typically estimate the population's
exposure to a pollutant from ambient air data. This
approach raises questions about actual exposure, because
people spend a great deal of time indoors. Recent studies
have answered some of these questions. These studies
show that a large percentage of ambient fine PM2 5, which
includes most acidic aerosols and most sulfates and
nitrates, successfully penetrates indoors.
Though larger PM (PMjo) is inhalable and has adverse
respiratory effects, clinical inhalation studies show that
only fine PM penetrates more deeply into the lung.
Clinical and toxicology studies provide potential biologi-
cal bases that support epidemiologic results about the
relationship between PM and adverse health effects, such
as the following:
4 In a recent clinical study, healthy individuals who were
exposed to acidic aerosols showed a reduced rate of par-
ticle clearance from their airways. A possible
consequence of this effect is that their lungs' defense
system mechanisms may be compromised.
* Repeated exposure of laboratory animals to acidic PM
was associated with changes in airway responsiveness
and changes in the animals' ability to clear particles
from their lungs.
* Laboratory animal studies show that inhaled acidic par-
ticles, when attached to very fine metallic particles, can
cause inflammation of the airways.
* Acidic aerosol droplets can exacerbate asthma symp-
toms in asthmatics.
* Other recent research has identified ultrafine particles
(i.e., PM less than 20 nanometers in diameter) as a
potentially toxic portion of PM. This research suggests
that an extensive number of a small mass of ultrafine
particles are inhaled.
Ozone
Stratospheric ozone in the upper atmosphere protects
humans from harmful ultraviolet light; ground-level
ozone in the troposphere, however, can cause adverse
human health effects. These effects have been document-
ed by toxicologists and in clinical studies when human
subjects and animals are exposed to laboratory-generated
ozone. They also have been reported in epidemiologic
studies of children at outdoor camps and the general
population.
Among healthy individuals, exposure to ozone can
cause a broad range of symptoms, including cough, airway
irritation, and chest discomfort when breathing deeply.
2.6
2.55
•I 2.50
•t
S.
,5
2.45
2.40
2.35^
10 20 30 40
Acidity of Particles
(annual mean in nmole/m^)
50
60
Figure 26. Results of Lung Exposure of Children to High Aerosol
Activity in Canadian and U.S. Communities.
48
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Econ
omic Research
These respiratory symptoms, which include transient
changes in lung function and changes in breathing pat-
terns during exercise, depend upon the duration of
exposure, ozone's concentration, and the ventilation
volume.
Groups at risk to ozone exposure include children, asth-
matics, individuals with chronic lung disease, and healthy
individuals who exercise outdoors. The responses of asth-
matics are qualitatively similar to those of healthy
individuals, but asthmatics' symptoms are typically more
numerous and intense. Their increased airway resistance
is probably due to bronchial constriction and inflamma-
tion. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
have not been evaluated to the same extent as asthmatics;
thus no conclusions can be reached about their relative
sensitivity.
Acute effects of ozone exposure are documented in epi-
demiologic studies. These studies illustrate that
emergency-room visits and hospitalization increase when
ambient levels of ozone are high:
* Several recent studies indicate that respiratory- related
emergency-room visits increase approximately 8 percent
when ambient ozone levels increase by 80 ppb to the
higher levels. This change of 80 ppb is approximately
the difference between background levels and the cur-
rent 1-hour standard (see Figure 27).
* A seasonal variation in response to ozone exposure has
been observed among individuals in nonattainment
areas of the United States. The lowest responsiveness
occurs after the summer ozone season; the greatest
responsiveness is in the early spring.
114
I"2
| no
3
1*108
J" 106
.£•
« 104
102
(Each point represents 10% of hospital-days of observation)
Courtesv oi Asthma Society ot Canada
Canadian child with asthma takes medication to relieve respiratory
symptoms on a polluted day.
10 20 30 40 SO 60 70 80 90 100
Daily High/1 Hour Ozone Level (ppb)
(One day previous to date of admission)
Figure 27. Actual Respiratory Admissions in Ontario.
49
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SECTION III
* Hospitalization for respiratory-related illnesses also
appears to increase with elevated ambient ozone levels.
In one study in Ontario, Canada, 5 percent of daily res-
piratory hospital admissions were related to ambient
ozone levels. Young children were observed to have the
highest sensitivity to ozone, as measured by hospitaliza-
tion admissions; the elderly have the least.
* Acute changes in lung function also have been observed
in children attending summer camps in various loca-
tions in North America. A recently published analysis
compared the results of six camp studies and concluded
that there is strong evidence that children exposed to
ozone in natural settings may experience decreases in
lung function similar to those observed in clinical ozone
exposure studies.
Clinical studies have identified several possible mecha-
nisms that might partially explain these acute health
effects. These include the following:
^ Ozone exposure increases the airways' allergic respon-
siveness to allergens and other agents that cause the
bronchi to constrict.
* Ozone induces airway inflammation in both healthy
humans and asthmatics that persists for up to 18 hours
after exposure ceases. There are no chronic mortality
studies in animals.
* Ozone impairs the lungs' defense mechanisms, which
may increase susceptibility to respiratory infection.
Although chronic effects of ozone exposure, such as
structural damage to pulmonary tissue, and persistent
inflammation have been observed in a number of animal
studies, they have not been studied in humans. The fol-
lowing studies document ozones chronic effects:
^ Animals exposed to ozone exhibit acute lung inflamma-
tion. Repeated cycles of acute pulmonary damage and
repair in response to repeated incidents of inflammation
cause permanent changes in the function and structure
of the tissues of the animals' lungs.
^ Humans and animals repeatedly exposed to ozone have
a pattern of response that is different than their response
to single acute exposures. Some acute lung function
and symptom responses are diminished while other
responses might be worsened.
The presence of ambient PM confounds the results of
studies attempting to associate mortality with episodic
and long-term ozone exposure. Studies conducted in large
North American cities, including New York, Los Angeles,
Philadelphia, and Toronto, suggest that ozone exposure
might contribute modestly to the overall mortality risk.
Quality Assurance
Bilateral field and laboratory intercomparisons continue
to confirm the compatibility of Canadian and U.S. air
quality data and to demonstrate steady improvement in
laboratory performance. New documentation was pro-
duced for methods and analysis.
Field intercomparisons are based on colocated sampling
instruments at one or more sites. For example, CAPMoN
and NADP/NTN precipitation chemistry measurements
are colocated at Sutton, Quebec, and State College,
Pennsylvania. The results, accumulated since 1986, show
good comparability between Canadian and U.S. sulfate
measurements and somewhat lower comparability for
nitrate and ammonium. Similarly, a study of colocated
CAPMoN and U.S. National Dry Deposition Network
air filter pack sampling is under way for sulfur and nitro-
gen compounds at the Centre for Atmospheric Research
Experiments in Egbert, Ontario. The study began in
1990 and continues to confirm the compatibility of the
two countries' air quality data. Canadian and U.S.
researchers also have participated in American and
European intercomparison studies involving atmospheric
mercury.
Laboratory comparison studies are conducted annually.
These studies help ensure that the chemical analyses car-
ried out in the various precipitation chemistry, aquatics,
air toxics, soils, and vegetation laboratories are compara-
ble. Precipitation and aquatic chemistry laboratories
conduct comparison studies annually. Approximately 50
Canadian and U.S. laboratories participate in these stud-
ies. Study number 38 was recently completed. These
studies continue to demonstrate steady improvements in
laboratory performance.
In addition, one intercomparison study on nutrients
and metals in vegetation is conducted annually.
Approximately 30 laboratories participate in this study.
The study indicates a steady improvement with time in
50
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Progress: Scientific and Technical Activities and Economic Research
laboratory performance and comparability. American and
Canadian researchers also have conducted annual inter-
comparison studies for organochlorines, polychlorinated
biphenyl (PCS) isomers, polycyclic aromatic hydrocar-
bons, and trace metals in atmospheric samples.
Other bilateral quality assurance activities include the
publication of a Quality Assurance Program Plan
Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN) and
the production of a manual on laboratory methods for soil
and foliar analysis in long-term environmental monitoring
programs. Appropriate laboratories and sites in the IADN
program are audited on a routine basis. In addition, there
is guidance for quality assurance/quality control for the
U.S. ozone monitoring program networks SLAMS,
NAMS, and PAMS. On a national basis, all quality assur-
ance activities continue to be a high priority in
atmospheric research programs.
The United States will be cooperating with Canada
through the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) of the
World Meteorological Organization in a newly established
Quality Assurance Activity. The countries will coordinate
quality assurance data for GAW stations located in North,
Central, and South America. Ozone, precipitation chem-
istry, and atmospheric optical depdi will have quality
control criteria and validation criteria for field and labora-
tory measurements. Communication and scientific
investigations are included. Sponsoring agencies include
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
Air Resources Laboratory, EPA, and the U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE).
Control Technologies
The Air Quality Agreement commits Canada and the
United States to "cooperate and exchange information on
development and demonstration of technologies and mea-
sures for controlling emissions of air pollutants,"
particularly SO2 and NOX. Both governments are contin-
uing to cooperate and increase information exchange.
Canada, the United States, and Mexico exchange infor-
mation at the North American Clean Air Technologies
Conferences. The first conference was held in Canada in
1994 and the second in the United States in 1996.
Canada
In Canada, developing new control technologies
involves many government agencies at the federal and
provincial levels as well as major industrial partners, such
as metals companies and electric utilities.
At power plants, new technologies to reduce SO2 emis-
sions—such as fluidized-bed combustion, limestone
injection into furnaces, and activation of unreacted calci-
um—result in large volumes of solid wastes. Environment
Canada has conducted extensive studies to characterize
and assess pollution control requirements for these wastes
and to mitigate or eliminate their adverse environmental
effects. For example, Environment Canada is working
with Nova Scotia Power on such a study at the Point
Aconi Generating Station. Additionally, Environment
Canada continues to collaborate with the Canadian
Electricity Association, utilities, and industry on a number
of projects including technologies to reduce NOX emis-
sions and flue gas desulfurization wet scrubber technology
to reduce SO2 emissions.
Similarly, the Canadian Coal Gasification Research and
Development Committee continues to study integrated
coal gasification combined cycle processes as a clean coal
technology option for Canada. Environment Canada
continues to work with Nova Scotia Power on pilot-scale
testing of conventional selective catalytic reductions of
NOX with high-sulfur coal. This project is demonstrating
NOX removal efficiencies in the 86-93 percent range, with
no apparent fouling or degradation of the catalyst. Long-
term studies of this nature are important in evaluating
how well, and how long, conventional selective catalytic
reduction resists deactivation from trace metals in coal.
The New Brunswick Department of Energy has collab-
orated with New Brunswick Power in developing and
implementing technology to fully utilize the scrubber
wastes produced at the two scrubbed power plants in the
province that produce wallboard-grade gypsum.
Saskatchewan Power is evaluating NOX optimization
potential at retrofitted wall-fired combustors at its
Boundary Dam power station.
Environment Canada is also investigating the formation
of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas, in power plant
plumes, further building on work being conducted in the
United States. This project illustrates the importance of
developing technology that can address multiple pollu-
tants simultaneously.
-------
SECTION III
United States
Progress continues to be considerable in the develop-
ment of control technologies. In the United States, the
Clean Coal Technology (CCT) Program will fund more
than $7 billion in projects over the course of the decade.
Power-generating and pollution-control technologies are
being developed in this cost-shared government/industry
research and development program. CCT initiatives
under the DOE are intended to increase emissions and
cost reductions and operation efficiencies. The CCT
Program is expected to demonstrate the utility and merit
of new coal-burning processes in a series of full-scale com-
mercial facilities.
The CCT Program emphasizes the mitigation of acid
rain precursor emissions. This focus is consistent with the
U.S. and Canadian Special Envoys Report on Acid Rain, the
source of the original 1986 recommendation for a multi-
billion dollar clean coal demonstration program.
There are currently 43 active projects in the CCT
Program. Eighteen projects have been completed; 8 are in
operation; and 16 are in the design phase or under con-
struction. Only one project is in negotiation. Of the 43
projects selected in the 5 completed competitive CCT
solicitations, almost all will have had sufficient operating
time to be offered commercially by 2000. Once the pro-
jects are completed, both sponsors and participants will
use the information gained to promote and market the
technologies in commercial applications. Total project
costs through the 5 solicitations under the program
amount to approximately $7.2 billion, with an average
industry cost share of 68 percent.
As reported in the 1994 Progress Report, significant
clean coal technology achievements are continuing in the
following market categories:
* Advanced power generation systems (including flu-
idized- bed combustion.
* Integrated gasification combined-cycle and other
processes.
* Environmental control systems (including advanced
flue gas desulfurization technologies and combined
SO2/NOX control systems).
* Coal process for clean fuels (characterized by produc-
tion of high-energy density solid, stable compliance
fuels and production of coal-derived liquids that can be
used as chemical or transportation fuel feedstocks).
^ Industrial applications that encompass steel industry,
cement industry, and industrial boiler applications.
Finally, Canada and the United States continue to hold
an annual meeting on control technologies under a bilat-
eral MOU between DOE and the Canadian Department
of Natural Resources. Status reports on their respective
GCT programs are given at the annual meeting.
52
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SECTION
I V
Additional Areas of Cooperation
Ground-Level Ozone
round-level ozone, the main component of smog,
.is formed when NOX and VOCs react in the
Gi
atmosphere. Adverse effects of ozone include
human health impacts and damaging effects on
forests and agricultural crops. Both Canada and the
United States have their own programs to reduce the emis-
sions that cause ground-level ozone, and the two
governments are working cooperatively to address trans-
boundary ozone initiatives begun in 1994.
Ongoing Cooperation
Regional Ozone Study Area
In November 1994, the AQC met and formally
approved the Regional Ozone Study Area (ROSA) initia-
tive. ROSA is the outgrowth of a transboundary ozone
management pilot project initiated by the environmental
heads of the two governments in July 1994. The ROSA
project is intended to address transboundary ozone trans-
port on a broad regional scale. The source/receptor region
of greatest interest for assessment is an area encompassing
eastern Missouri and Tennessee on the southwest and New
York State and Ontario on the northeast (see Figure 28).
The initial analyses conducted for ROSA included a
series of modeling runs directed by EPA staff using the
Regional Oxidant Model. These simulations examined
the extent to which key source regions in the ROSA con-
tribute to transboundary ozone transport. The simulations
also examined the potential effectiveness of regional ozone
precursor controls in addressing ozone transport. Due to
the expense of conducting these analyses and the need to
involve key U.S. states in the process, more comprehensive
modeling directed at ROSA study objectives will be devel-
oped in conjunction with the U.S. OTAG regional
cooperative effort (for further discussion in this section,
see page 56). In addition to the OTAG modeling effort,
which is slated to continue through 1997, EPA and
Environment Canada are cooperating to analyze the ozone
episodes of mutual interest that occurred in the summer of
1995.
The ROSA initiative demonstrates that the two coun-
tries share priority in expanding cooperation under the Air
Quality Agreement to improve the air quality of North
America.
Next Steps
In 1996, Canada and the United States will explore
opportunities to link their ozone reduction efforts more
closely, including possible integration of Canadian
Regional Smog Management Plans and transboundary
considerations in the OTAG process. As an important
step in advancing cooperation under the ROSA initiative,
the United States already has invited Canada to participate
as an observer in OTAG meetings. There is also an oppor-
tunity for the Ontario Regional Smog Management Plan,
in particular, to coordinate with and build upon OTAG
efforts. It is expected that close linkages will be main-
tained as the two efforts evolve. Furthermore, the two
countries will examine specific elements of a transbound-
ary management process, such as transboundary NOX
emissions trading.
Discussions are under way on possible open-market
emissions trading between sources in Ontario and
Michigan. Any decision made within OTAG on interstate
trading will be important to the development of a broad-
er transboundary trading initiative. A draft emissions
trading framework has been prepared by OTAG, and trad-
ing concepts will be considered in more detail as the
OTAG program evolves during 1996.
53
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SECTION IV
OTR
Ozone Transport
ROSA
Regional Ozone
Study Area
OTA6
Ozone Transport
Assessment Group Region
Figure 28. OTA6 and ROSA Regions.
Domestic Programs
Following are summaries of the domestic programs
both governments are undertaking to reduce ground-level
ozone.
Canada
In Canada, ground-level ozone is a particular problem
in three regions: the Lower Fraser Valley in British
Columbia, the Windsor-Quebec city corridor straddling
southern Ontario and Quebec, and the southwestern areas
of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
As a result, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the
Environment adopted a plan in 1990 to reduce NOX and
VOC emissions that cause smog. The main objectives of
the NOX/VOC Management Plan are the following: (1)
reduce emissions of ground-level ozone to below the
national ambient air quality objective of 82 ppb (1 hour)
54
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Additional Areas of Cooperati
o n
in areas with ozone exceedances and (2) establish a nation-
al program to prevent air quality from deteriorating in the
rest of the country.
The Phase I plan acknowledged that achieving these
objectives would likely require additional measures and
the need for a second and possibly third phase.
At present, most of the Phase I initiatives are complete
(e.g., revised vehicle emissions standards, consumer prod-
uct reformulation, and gasoline vapor pressure reduction).
Others are still being developed. Some provinces have
implemented regional control measures, such as vehicle
inspection, fuel storage and handling, public education,
and strict facility-specific permit provisions. British
Columbia has made the most progress, undertaking a pro-
gram to significantly reduce levels of smog in the
Vancouver-Fraser Valley area.
As anticipated, the Phase I measures will not fully
resolve the ozone/smog problem in the targeted regions.
In addition, a greater understanding of air quality and a
broader multipollutant definition of the smog problem
have emerged. As a result of recent health studies regard-
ing ground-level ozone, Canada is reviewing its objectives
for ground-level ozone.
In the last year, the Canadian Council of Ministers of
the Environment has begun developing a "next steps"
smog strategy and accompanying plans. The new initia-
tive will begin in 1997 and will build on Phase I measures
and science. The strategy will consist of a National Smog
Management Plan (led by the federal government) and
four Regional Smog Management Plans. The National
Smog Management Plan component will consolidate
national preventative actions, including new vehicles and
fuels standards recently agreed to by federal and provincial
ministers. Additional product and process standards and
stricter environmental performance limits for new sources
are also contemplated.
The four Regional Smog Management Plans will
address continuing air quality problems in smog "hot
spots." These will be led largely by the provinces and have
a strong remedial and airshed management component.
The province of British Columbia and the Greater
Vancouver Regional District have already developed a plan
for the greater Vancouver area. The province has also
announced its intention to develop strict vehicle emissions
and fuel standards and introduce California-type LEV
requirements by 2001. The province of Ontario has
issued its discussion paper, "Toward a Smog Plan for
Areas Designated to Ozone Attainment, as of July 1996
San Francisco, CA; Miami, FL; Tampa-St.Petersburg, FL;
Jersey County, IL; Indianapolis, IN; South Bend, IN; Kansas Qty,
KS/MO; Edmonson County, KY; Lexington, KY; Owensboro, KY;
Paducah, KY; Detroit-Ann Arbor, Ml; Grand Rapids, Ml; Charlorte-
Gastonia, NC; Raleigh-Durham, NC; Canton, OH; Cleveland, OH;
Columbus, OH; Dayton-Springfield, OH; Toledo, OH; Youngstown, OH;
Cherokee County, SC; Knoxville, IN; Memphis, TN; Charleston, WV;
Greenbriar County, WV; Huntington-Ashland, WV; Parkersburg, WV.
Ontario," suggesting NOX and VOC emissions reduction
targets of 45 percent.
United States
NAAQS were established in the United States for
ground-level ozone to protect public health and welfare.
The health and welfare standards are both 0.12 parts per
million (ppm), not to be exceeded for more than 1 hour
per year. Areas (usually county or metropolitan area wide)
where the violations are measured are designated as non-
attainment areas. Each designation is based on a
submittal to EPA by the state governor.
The U.S. program focuses on reducing the primary
ozone-forming pollutants, VOCs and NOX. Most efforts
have been directed toward controlling VOCs, although
increasing attention has been given to controlling NOX for
ozone reduction since the 1991 publication of the
National Research Council report Rethinking the Ozone
Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution.
The CAAA specified five classifications of nonattain-
ment with the ozone standard: marginal, moderate,
serious, severe, and extreme. The classifications are based
on the amount of ozone measured in the areas, with the
most polluted areas receiving the extreme classification.
Increasingly stringent control measures are required for
each classification of increasing pollution levels. The more
polluted areas have more time to reach full attainment
because implementation of the more stringent require-
ments is expected to be more time-consuming. Of the
original 98 classified ozone nonattainment areas, 28 have
been redesignated to attainment. Fourteen of these were
redesignated in 1995. These redesignations are due to
improved air quality levels measured in recent years in the
areas.
55
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SECTION IV
Regulators are also becoming aware that ozone does not
always originate entirely in the area where the violation is
measured. Ozone and ozone precursors can be transport-
ed by air movements from other areas. The special
problems caused by air transport were recognized by
Congress in the CAAA when it established an Ozone
Transport Region (OTR). The OTR consists of the New
England states, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia met-
ropolitan statistical area (which includes a portion of
Virginia).
The CAAA also established an OTC comprised of rep-
resentatives from these 13 jurisdictions. The OTC
assesses the formation and transport of ozone precursors in
the OTR and recommends regional control strategies to
mitigate the interstate pollution. Two of the OTC's most
significant actions to date are the adoption of a MOU to
control NOX emissions (NOX MOU) and a recommenda-
tion to adopt a LEV program. The NOX MOU will
achieve significant reductions in NOX throughout the
OTR and will be implemented through a cost-saving trad-
ing program. The recommendation for the LEV program
has led to negotiations with automakers that may bring
cleaner cars not only to the OTR but also to the rest of the
nation.
OTAG, another regional cooperative effort that covers
an even broader geographic area, is addressing the trans-
port problem in the entire eastern United States. OTAG
is organized under the umbrella of the Environmental
Council of the States and is chaired by the State of Illinois.
It consists of states, EPA, environmental organizations,
industry, and others. OTAG is organized into a number
of subgroups that meet regularly to explore issues of con-
cern and develop strategies focusing on the interstate
nature of the ozone problem. One subgroup explores
options for atmospheric models that help predict the
effectiveness of areawide control strategies. OTAG has
invited representatives from Environment Canada to
observe its meetings.
While the current 0.12 ppm ozone standards are being
implemented in the United States, they are being reviewed
to determine if they need to be revised to reflect the most
recent scientific information on the health and vegetation
effects of ozone. EPA issued an advanced notice of pro-
posed rulemaking in June 1996 stating its intentions to
propose decisions on revised ozone standards in conjunc-
tion with its decision on revision of PM standards. EPA
will announce a proposed decision on revision of the
ozone and PM standards in November 1996.
Air Toxics
Overview
Air toxics are contaminants that are emitted into the
atmosphere and transported through the air. They are
toxic, persistent, and hazardous to human health or plant
and animal life.
Air toxics are released from a variety of sources and
processes. They include a large number of compounds
and compound classes, such as the following:
* Heavy metals (e.g., mercury)
* Respirable mineral fibers (e.g., asbestos)
* Toxic inorganic gases (e.g., chlorine)
* Hazardous VOCs (e.g., benzene)
* Halogenated organic compounds (e.g., dioxins)
Sources of air toxics vary from large point sources such
as waste incinerators, smelting, and fossil-fueled power
plants to many small and diverse sources including pesti-
cide applications, motor vehicles, and dry-cleaning
facilities.
Certain persistent toxic substances also bioaccumulate
in living organisms and have been associated with
immune system dysfunction, reproductive deficits, devel-
opmental and neurobehavioral abnormalities, and cancer.
Air toxics have been detected thousands of miles from
where they were emitted. For example, toxic substances
have been detected in human breast milk and wildlife tis-
sue in remote areas that have no local discharge or
emission sources.
Canada and the United States have identified a range of
persistent toxic substances of concern in the Great Lakes.
Many of these are pesticides, but polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (compounds consisting of hydrogen and
carbon arranged in rings), dioxins and furans, and several
heavy metals are also of concern. The "atmospheric area
of influence" of these substances is broad. Many air toxi-
cs are known to originate from sources well beyond the
Great Lakes Basin. The two countries are also examining
transboundary toxics in the Gulf of Maine, on the West
Coast (Vancouver-Seattle region), and in more localized
-------
Additional Areas of Cooperati
o n
contexts, such as Detroit-Windsor and surrounding the
Trail Smelter in British Columbia.
To control these toxic pollutants, Canada and the
United States launched domestic programs about 20 years
ago at both die federal and provincial/state levels. At the
federal level, control programs were introduced under the
respective Clean Air Acts of both countries. These efforts
have been enhanced in recent years with the toxic provi-
sions of die CEPA and the CAAA. Both nations have
implemented mandatory inventory reporting systems: the
Toxic Release Inventory in the United States and the
National Pollutant Release Inventory in Canada. Progress
implementing these programs is reported in other publi-
cations, including the annual CEPA reports in Canada
and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse in
the United States.
The international efforts described below are intended
to provide an overview of the efforts of both governments
to control the transboundary transport of air toxics. The
United States and Canada are cooperating in the following
international efforts that address air toxics: Annex 15 of
the United States-Canada Great Lakes Water Quality
Agreement, the Canada-United States Strategy for the
Virtual Elimination of Persistent Toxic Substances in the
Great Lakes Basin (Binational Virtual Elimination
Strategy), and the North American (Canada, the United
States, and Mexico) Agreement on Environmental
Cooperation's Resolution on the Sound Management of
Chemicals.
International Efforts
Annex 15 of the Great Lakes Water
Quality Agreement
Annex 15 on Airborne Toxic Substances states that
Canada and the United States "shall conduct research, sur-
veillance, and monitoring and implement pollution
control measures for die purpose of reducing atmospheric
deposition of toxic substances, particularly persistent toxic
substances, to the Great Lakes Basin ecosystem." The
control measures may be aimed at sources anywhere in
Canada and the continental United States, not just the
Great Lakes Basin.
Scientific work to identify persistent toxic substances is
progressing. The IADN is also well established, with five
master monitoring stations in place, one on each of the
Great Lakes. Eight years after negotiating Annex 15,
however, there is not an adequate overview of progress
toward reducing and eliminating Great Lakes air toxics of
concern. To accelerate action on diis front, a Binational
Virtual Elimination Strategy for persistent toxic sub-
stances in the Great Lakes Basin will be implemented in
1996.
Canada-United States Strategy for the
Virtual Elimination of Persistent Toxic
Substances in the Great Lakes Basin
President Clinton and Prime Minister Chretien agreed
in February 1995 that the two countries should develop a
strategy to "address the most persistent toxic substances in
die Great Lakes environment."
The strategy follows the framework set out by Agenda
21: Global Action Plan for the 21st Century signed by more
than 160 nations in 1992. This plan called for phasing
out or banning toxic chemicals that pose an unmanageable
and unreasonable risk to human health and the
environment.
The Binational Virtual Elimination Strategy sets quan-
tifiable reduction targets and time frames for specified
persistent toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin. The
strategy describes a process for evaluating the sources and
current regulatory framework of the toxics as well as devel-
oping options for reductions. The strategy also sets forth
principles by which the strategy will be guided, including
the commitments to open, interactive public participation
and involvement in the international arena to pursue
reductions. There is also emphasis on pollution preven-
tion and support of State, Provincial, Lakewide
Management Plans for each of the Great Lakes to achieve
reductions.
The strategy describes in a technical appendix some of
the actions that the countries propose to take to achieve
reductions. Although the strategy emphasizes voluntary
efforts, all regulatory and nonregulatory efforts will be
considered.
North American Agreement on
Environmental Cooperation
As a follow-up to the North American Agreement on
Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC), the Commission
for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) was established to
address transboundary and regional environmental
concerns in North America. One of the CEC initiatives,
57
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SECTION IV
North American Air Monitoring and Modeling, focuses
on North American air quality concerns. This initiative is
aimed at developing cooperative long-term air quality
monitoring, modeling, and assessment programs in North
America through the promotion, collection, and exchange
of data and through development and application of
appropriate models between and among the three
countries.
The initial focus of CECs activities is assessing the
compatibility of the air data sets currently generated in
North America, determining the quality of emissions
inventories, and developing potential partnerships with
established organizations that share common objectives.
During 1996, CEC will coordinate the development of
regional action plans for the phase-out or management of
PCBs, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), chlor-
dane, and mercury. This work is being conducted as part
of the Resolution on the Sound Management of
Chemicals signed by Canada, the United States, and
Mexico in 1995 under the auspices of the NAAEC.
UN Economic Commission for Europe
Convention on Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution
As part of the UN Economic Commission for Europe
Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
(LRTAP), work is under way to develop protocols on per-
sistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals.
The POPs protocol is expected to address a short list of
substances and industrial chemicals and allow flexibility in
implementation. Certain pesticides would be subject to
use restrictions while others would be banned. For sta-
tionary sources of dioxin and furan emissions, best
available technology or best environmental practice
requirements may be applied. The protocol would also
include an annex setting forth the technical and procedur-
al criteria necessary for additional substances to be
covered. It is expected that the POPs protocol will be con-
cluded by late 1997.
The heavy metals protocol will focus on lead, mercury,
and cadmium. As with the POPs protocol, a variety of
response action obligations would be considered.
Although heavy metals are being addressed in parallel with
POPs at the Working Group on Strategies sessions,
technical work on heavy metals is not as well advanced. It
is expected that the heavy metals protocol will not be com-
pleted until 1998.
UNEP, International Forum on
Chemical Safety, and Other Related
Global Chemical Safety Forums
Following a decision by the May 1995 UN
Environmental Program (UNEP) Governing Council, an
assessment was initiated and draft interim report prepared
of the chemistry, toxicology, transport, and socioeconom-
ic factors associated with POPs and recommendations for
international actions on POPs. The draft report was pre-
sented to the Intergovernmental Conference on the
Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based
Activities in October 1995 in Washington, D.C. The 102
participating governments, including the United States
and Canada, recommended that a legally binding global
instrument be developed for the reduction and/or elimi-
nation of emissions and discharges and, where
appropriate, the manufacture and use of POPs. The
affected pollutants are PCBs, dioxins/furans, aldrin, dield-
rin, DDT, endrin, chlordane, hexachlorobenzene, mirex,
toxaphene, and heptachlor. In addition, the second
Intersessional Group meeting of the International Forum
on Chemical Safety (IFCS) held in Canberra, Australia,
approved the draft report's sections on chemistry, toxicol-
ogy, and transport. IFCS held two meetings in June 1996
in the Philippines to further develop the socioeconomic
portion of the report and to develop recommendations to
the UNEP Governing Council's January 1997 meeting on
how to proceed towards a globally legally binding mecha-
nism on POPs.
Although none of these international efforts is formally
linked to the Air Quality Agreement, the AQC believes it
would be useful to assess the magnitude of the air toxics
problem and report on die implementation of the current
agreements. This will provide a more complete picture of
how the two countries control transboundary air pollu-
tion. Furthermore, the AQC has decided to track these
programs and identify any gaps by the end of 1996. The
AQC will then address what role it will play regarding air
toxics.
58
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SECTION
Conclusion
This third progress report under the Canada-United
States Air Quality Agreement has focused on the
substantial progress the two governments have made
in achieving emissions reductions goals and in car-
rying out long-term programs to reduce the effects of acid
rain in both countries.
Canada has achieved a 54-percent decrease in SC»2 emis-
sions in the seven eastern provinces from 1980 levels.
Emissions decreased from 3.8 million tonnes in 1980 to
1.7 million tonnes in 1994, significantly surpassing the
emissions goal for eastern Canada. In the United States in
1995, die first compliance year for Phase I of the Acid
Rain Program, all Phase I affected units met their compli-
ance obligations, with SO2 allowances held by the units
matching emissions generated. SO2 emissions declined
sharply at Phase I electric utility units—decreasing to 5.3
million tons from 1980 levels of 10.9 million tons. This
amounted to a reduction of 3.4 million tons more than
allowable levels of 8.7 million tons for the first year of
compliance. Both countries are also implementing pro-
grams to reduce NOX emissions. In Canada, measures are
in place to reduce NOX emissions from stationary sources
by 125,000 tonnes by 2000. In the United States, NOX
emissions from stationary and mobile sources are expect-
ed to be reduced by more than 2 million tons by 2000.
In scientific and technical cooperation, this report has
documented the commitment of Canada and the United
States to expand monitoring and modeling efforts for
acidic deposition as well as ground-level ozone. Both
countries continue to work together to ensure emissions
inventory data consistency and coordination in emissions
trends analysis. The two governments are assessing and
reporting ecosystem and human health effects from acidic
compounds. They are also demonstrating and deploying
new pollution control technologies in an effort to reduce
pollution and are using different methods for reducing
emissions, including energy efficiency, demand-side man-
agement, fuel switching, and pollution control
equipment.
In addition, the United States has continued to use mar-
ket-based mechanisms to achieve air pollution -reduction
at a lower societal cost. At die same time, both govern-
ments have continued to exchange information on clean
air control costs.
This report also considers the increasing efforts of the
two countries, joindy and through individual pollution
control programs, to address ground-level ozone (the main
component of smog), the deposition of toxic compounds,
and other air quality issues of concern. One of the newest
outgrowths of this activity is the ROSA project, which is
addressing transboundary transport of ozone on a broad
regional scale.
Further discussion of the cooperation of the two
governments is contained in the first five-year review of
die Air Quality Agreement (see Section VI).
59
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SECTION
V I
Five-Year Review and Assessment
of the Canada-United States
Air Quality Agreement
/.
Introduction
Article X, Review and Assessment, of the Canada-
United States Air Quality Agreement is intended to ensure
that the Parties periodically review and assess the
Agreement to determine whether it is working well and is
"a practical and effective instrument to address shared
concerns regarding transboundary air pollution." This
review will weigh the success of this broad charge.
Article X, Paragraphs 1, 2, and 3 of the Canada-United
States Air Quality Agreement state:
Following the receipt of each progress report submitted to
them by the Air Quality Committee in accordance with
Article VIII and the views presented to the International
Joint Commission on that report in accordance with
Article IX, the Parties shall consult on the contents of the
progress report, including any recommendations therein.
The Parties shall conduct a comprehensive review and
assessment of this Agreement, and its implementation,
during the fifth year after its entry into force and every
five years thereafter, unless otherwise agreed.
Following the consultations referred to in paragraph 1, as
well as the review and assessment referred to in paragraph
2, the Parties shall consider such action as may be appro-
priate, including: (a) the modification of this Agreement;
(b) the modification of existing policies, programs, or
The review must address the following two broad
questions:
(1) Are the Parties fulfilling their obligations under the
Air Quality Agreement? What measures are being
taken to do so?
(2) Is the Air Quality Agreement a good mechanism for
fulfilling these obligations? What are the strengths
and weaknesses of the Agreement?
The 1996 Progress Report responds to the first ques-
tion, and the following article-by-article review, beginning
with Article III, responds to the second question. Articles
I and II dealing with definitions and purpose are not
reviewed.
2.
3.
measures.
The five-year review provides a comprehensive assess-
ment of the Agreement and its implementation as
required by Article X. It also provides guidance for con-
sideration of any modifications to the Agreement.
Article-By-Article Review
Article III. General Air
Quality Objectives
Is the Agreement effectively working to control transboundary
air pollution between the two countries?
The General Air Quality Objectives, as set forth under
Article III of the Agreement, broadly direct the Parties to
control transboundary air pollution between the two
countries in accordance with the remaining articles of the
Agreement. The Agreement outlines a detailed plan for
the reduction of sulfur dioxide (SO^ and nitrogen oxide
(NOX) emissions in both countries. The Agreement has
succeeded in achieving these SO2 and NOX emissions
reduction goals. The Parties agree, however, that control
of transboundary air pollution has not occurred "to the
extent necessary to protect the environment," particularly
in highly sensitive areas. (The Parties recognize that
61
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SECTION VI
Annex 1 was designed to protect only moderately sensitive
areas from acidic deposition.)
Furthermore, the Parties recognize that the Agreement
and its annexes currently focus on acid rain and do not
address other types of transboundary air pollutants, such
as ground-level ozone, air toxics, and particles. At present,
the Air Quality Committee (AQC) is studying ways of
managing ground-level ozone and its precursors and is
evaluating what role it might play regarding air toxics, tak-
ing into consideration other agreements and pending new
protocols (see 1996 Progress Report). The Parties will
decide over the next year whether to add new annexes on
ground-level ozone, air toxics, and/or particles to the
Agreement, or leave their management to other areas.
Article IV: Specific Air Quality
Objectives: Annex 1
Are the Parties meeting the specific objectives as set forth
in Annex 1? What programs or other measures have been
adopted to implement specific objectives?
The Specific Air Quality Objectives, as set forth under
Article IV of the Agreement, direct the Parties to adopt
programs and other measures necessary to implement
emissions limitations or reductions of SO2 and NOX in
order to reduce the transboundary flow of these acidic
deposition precursors. The 1996 Progress Report provides
a detailed description of the progress of implementation of
the acid rain control programs in both countries.
Two key Annex 1 objectives remain subject to further
discussion between the Parties: compliance monitoring
and prevention of significant deterioration (PSD)/visibili-
ty. While Canada believes that it is fulfilling the
compliance monitoring requirements of Annex 1, and
almost all major Canadian sources have some type of
emissions monitoring system, the United States remains
concerned about the uniformity and accuracy of provin-
cial reporting requirements. Canada acknowledges that
inventory data need to be improved and is working with
the provinces toward that end.
Both Parties also recognize the importance of PSD and
visibility, particularly for international, national, state, and
provincial parks and wilderness areas. Part C of Tide I of
the U.S. Clean Air Act (CAA) was developed specifically
to address these issues. Canada holds that Canadian air
quality objectives for NOX, SO2, and paniculate matter
(PM) are equal to or more stringent than U.S. standards,
and the desirable levels are comparable to background
levels found in remote areas. Canada believes that the new
Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, combined with
provincial permitting and environmental assessment legis-
lation, provides comparable environmental protection to
the U.S. program.
U.S. concerns center on the enforceability of Canadian
requirements and whether implementation procedures for
visibility protection and PSD would prevent deterioration
in areas that already enjoy air quality surpassing Canadian
objectives. The United States is concerned that the out-
lined Canadian program does not identify the way to
achieve reasonable progress similar to the visibility pro-
gram in the United States. In addition, the United States
believes that comparisons should be most appropriately
made between Canadian air quality objectives and U.S.
PSD increments. PSD increments in the United States
can never lead to ambient levels above the national ambi-
ent air quality standards.
Article V: Assessment,
Notification, and Mitigation
What measures have the Parties taken to implement Article
V? What are its strengths and weaknesses?
While both Parties generally agree that the notification
clause is functioning adequately, particularly with the
establishment of electronic bulletin boards, they are less
satisfied with assessment and mitigation. Article V states
that "each party shall, as appropriate and as required by its
laws, regulations, and policies, assess those proposed
actions, activities, and projects within the area under its
jurisdiction that, if carried out, would be likely to cause
significant transboundary air pollution, including consid-
eration of appropriate mitigation measures."
The Parties' dissatisfaction with the assessment and mit-
igation clauses stems from the differences in laws and
regulations in the two countries. Canadian environmen-
tal assessment legislation provides that, effective in 1995,
potential damages on U.S. territory caused by all new
Canadian sources be assessed, mitigated, and/or compen-
sated. Although the United States informally shares
assessment data with Canada, there is no similar U.S. leg-
islation providing assessment and mitigation of U.S.
sources into Canadian territory. Canada views this posi-
tion as going against the spirit and intent of reciprocity in
the Air Quality Agreement. The United States views this
position as consistent with the language of the Agreement.
62
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Five-Year Review and Assessment of the Agreement
Article VI: Scientific and
Technical Activities and Economic
Research
Are the Parties satisfied with the level of cooperation, coordi-
nation, and sharing of scientific and technical information
and economic research?
While the level of scientific and technical activities and
economic research has been adequate to meet the report-
ing needs of the Agreement, both Parties conclude that
additional research and monitoring activities beyond this
level would be helpful in addressing transboundary air
pollution issues.
Article VII: Exchange of
Information
Are the Parties satisfied with the degree of information
exchange? Are there other areas/issues that have not been
introduced in an information exchange capacity that should
be?
Although the Parties agree that information exchange
has been sufficient to meet the Agreements objectives,
both Parties conclude that this cooperation ought to be
expanded. Unfortunately, shrinking budgets and travel
restrictions on both sides will severely limit the ability of
experts to continue or expand this type of cooperation.
Article VIII: The Air Quality
Committee
Is the Committee fitlfilling its duties? Has the subcommittee
structure within the AQC been effective?
The AQC meets formally once a year to assist in imple-
menting the Agreement by reviewing subcommittee
progress, providing recommendations, and ensuring that
interested stakeholders receive the appropriate feedback.
In this regard, and in the publication of biannual progress
reports, the AQC fulfills the objectives of the Agreement.
The subcommittee structure has been effective in dividing
work that must be undertaken to implement the
Agreement. The AQC will have to consider how to
address future issues to meet the air quality priorities of
the two Parties.
The Parties concur that the production of biannual
progress reports unnecessarily diverts scarce fiscal and
human resources from pressing air issues. Instead, a
detailed progress report every five years in the years when
there is a five-year review and assessment of the Agreement
and short interim progress reports would be more than
adequate to satisfy the reporting goals of the Agreement.
Article IX: Responsibilities of the
International Joint Commission
Is the International Joint Commission (IJC) fitlfilling its
duties? What measures has the IJC taken thus far to solicit
public comment?
The IJC has successfully been fulfilling its duties under
the Air Quality Agreement. The IJC invited and synthe-
sized comments on the 1992 and 1994 Progress Reports
for submission to the Parties. Although there were few
public comments on the two reports, the IJC served
actively in the public participation process. Upon request
from the Parties, the IJC held public meetings to solicit
input to this five-year review. These public comments
have been summarized and included in this document.
Canada would like to see the IJC play a more promi-
nent role, including the conducting of five-year reviews.
The United States is satisfied with the current role being
played by the IJC in synthesizing and providing public
comments.
Article X: Review and Assessment
Are the Parties satisfied with this Article?
The Parties agree that Article X of the Agreement serves
a critical function regarding the continued effectiveness
and usefulness of the Air Quality Agreement. The
involvement of a third party could assist in the review
process.
Articles XI: Consultations; XII:
Referrals; and XIII: Settlement of
Disputes
Although no formal consultations, referrals, or disputes have
occurred, do these Articles accommodate a Party's desire for
consultation, evaluation, and settlement of matters of
concern?
-------
SECTION VI
The Parties concur in the affirmative. So far, however,
the Parties have sought to resolve matters of concern
between themselves and without outside help. It remains
to be seen whether matters can be successfully resolved
through a formal consultation process under Article XI.
Article XIV: Implementation
What measures have the Parties taken to ensure timely imple-
mentation of the Agreement? Are there any barriers to
successful implementation?
Both Parties have been successful to date in obtaining
the necessary support and funding to establish acid rain
programs. Given severe budget constraints and significant
funding cuts, however, the monitoring and research pro-
grams on both sides of the border are threatened.
The Parties require close coordination and cooperation
with state and provincial governments as necessary to
implement the Agreement. Differences in each country's
federal structure have created some uncertainty in juris-
dictional questions. In Canada, the National Air Issues
Mechanism is a federal/provincial/territorial effort to
manage air issues in an integrated fashion. In the United
States, implementation of the Agreement has not required
enactment of any additional legislation.
Article XV: Existing Rights and
Obligations
The Air Quality Agreement recognizes the rights and
obligations of the governments in other international
agreements. The AQC considers other important trans-
boundary air pollution issues and discusses the extent to
which they may be addressed by other international agree-
ments, such as the NAAEC. The Commission on
Environmental Cooperation, established by the NAAEC,
is currendy working with Canada, Mexico, and the
United States to develop a North American model for
transboundary environmental impact assessment. In
addition, transboundary air toxics are being addressed
through other international negotiations (see Emerging
Issues in this section).
Emerging Issues
Have the Panics established or considered new objectives?
While the Parties have not yet established new objec-
tives, they are individually studying critical loads/acidic
deposition standards and bilaterally discussing ground-
level ozone. For example, Canada is evaluating new target
loads, based on the critical loads concept, in a new
National Strategy on Acidifying Emissions for post-2000.
Moreover, both Parties are taking tropospheric ozone
issues seriously and are eager to develop a more extensive
understanding of this important air issue. Differences
between Canada's ozone objective (82 parts per billion)
and the U.S. standard (120 parts per billion) and their
implementation will be reviewed to address comparable
levels of health protection to the public on both sides of
the border.
areas,
In a manner that is not redundant with efforts in other
the Agreement could be expanded to pursue
improved understanding of such issues as transboundary
contributions to inhalable particulate levels and air toxics
(currendy being addressed in the Great Lakes Water
Quality Agreement and its new Binational Virtual
Elimination Strategy). Bilateral efforts to address visibili-
ty issues in pristine areas should continue to be
encouraged. There are already some efforts under way.
Summary of Public Comments
Canada and the United States asked die IJC to hold
hearings to solicit public comments prior to the issuing of
the first five-year review. The IJC held two hearings in
1995, one in Ottawa and one in Washington, D.C.
Sixteen presenters participated in the hearings, with 48
citizens groups, industry associations, provinces, and indi-
viduals submitting written comments. The majority of
the presenters were from Canada.
64
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Five-Year Review and Assessment of the Agreement
The comments appear to indicate a consensus that the
Air Quality Agreement provides a good framework for
addressing all transboundary air pollution issues. The
public expressed the need, however, to give higher priority
to air quality issues due to growing evidence on environ-
mental and human health effects of toxic air pollution.
Many commenting urged both governments to expand
the scope of the Agreement to include three new annexes
on smog, air toxics, and inhalable PM. They stated that
citizens on both sides of the border deserve comparable
protection and that the two governments should work
cooperatively to establish regionally harmonized, uniform-
ly enforced standards that protect human health.
Ground-level ozone was identified as a major transbound-
ary health and environmental problem in southern
Ontario and was generally considered to be an issue
requiring attention under the Agreement.
In addition, because of concern about government cut-
backs, respondents also suggested that new annexes be
included in the Agreement to secure expanded monitoring
and modeling programs and emissions inventories.
Regarding acidic deposition, many respondents said
that more needed to be done to protect sensitive
ecosystems.
Others commenting noted that the Agreement lacks a
focus on regional or local transboundary air quality issues,
particularly in the Detroit-Windsor region, the New
Brunswick-Northeastern states region, and the
Washington State-British Columbia region. Local citi-
zens groups in the Detroit-Windsor region, for example,
emphasized that the Agreement should be used to ensure
transboundary cooperative efforts aimed at abating and
preventing the flow of transboundary pollutants. There
was a suggestion to explore ways by which Canadian juris-
dictions have the same recognition as adjoining states
under the CAA provisions.
Other respondents suggested that Alaska and the parts
of Canada that border Alaska participate in implementing
the existing Agreement and in new national or binational
arrangements.
Several respondents suggested ways of enhancing the
Air Quality Agreement, including the following:
* Stakeholders (i.e., technical specialists, environmental
groups, industry, and the general public) should be
included on the AQC.
* Regional transboundary air quality committees—with
local stakeholders—should be established under the
Agreement to ensure better management of local issues.
* A third-party oversight body should be created to mon-
itor the actions of governments under the Agreement,
conduct studies, report on progress, and make recom-
mendations on how to improve air quality along the
border. A role was suggested similar to one assigned to
the IJC by the governments under die Great Lakes
Water Quality Agreement.
* Public participation and education are necessary com-
ponents for effective implementation of the Air Quality
Agreement.
Copies of the report on the public hearings held in
Canada and the United States, Synthesis of Comments
Received on the Canada/United States Air Quality
Agreement, are available from the IJC.
Conclusion
Overall, Canada and the United States have been suc-
cessful in fulfilling their obligations as set forth in the Air
Quality Agreement. This is particularly the case regarding
implementation of the acid rain control programs in each
country. The Parties agree, however, that control of trans-
boundary air pollution (outside of scientific cooperation
and technical policy information exchange) has not
occurred to the extent necessary to protect the environment
more fully.
Furthermore, the Agreement does not currently focus
on other serious transboundary air pollutants, such as
ground-level ozone, air toxics, and inhalable particles.
The Parties have begun to study regional ozone manage-
ment, however, and are evaluating what role they might
play regarding air toxics.
While the Parties agree on most aspects of this five-year
review, they disagree over two main obligations: (1) the
prevention of air quality deterioration and visibility pro-
tection and (2) certain aspects of assessment and
mitigation. Canada and the United States will continue to
work at resolving these differences.
-------
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Canada
Co-chair:
APPENDIX A
United States-Canada
Air Quality Committee
United States
Tony Clarke
Assistant Deputy Minister
Environmental Protection Service
Environment Canada
Members:
David Egar
Director General
Air Pollution Prevention Directorate
Environment Canada
Phil Merilees
Director General
Research, Atmospheric Environment Service
Environment Canada
Brian Moore
Director
Environment Division
Natural Resources Canada
James Trottier
Deputy Director
U.S. Transboundary Division
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
Larry Lechner
Director
Air and Land Protection Branch
Saskatchewan Environment and Public Safety
Walter Chan
Assistant Director
Science and Technology Branch
Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy
Conrad Anctil
Direction de la coordination de 1'expertise technique
Ministere de 1'Environnement et de la Faune, Quebec
Derrick Maddocks
Director
Industrial Environmental Engineering Division
Newfoundland Department of Environment and Lands
Co-chair:
Rafe Pomerance
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
the Environment and Development
Department of State
Members:
Abraham Haspel
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Economic and Environmental Policy
Department of Energy
E. Anthony Wayne
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
European and Canadian Affairs
Department of State
Bruce Hicks, Director
Air Resources Laboratory
NOAA
David Kee, Director
Air and Radiation Division
EPA Region 5
Molly Ross
Staff Assistant
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
Fish, Wildlife, and Parks
Department of Interior
John Seitz, Director
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
EPA
Paul Stolpman, Director
Office of Atmospheric Programs
EPA
71
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APPENDIX A
Subcommittee on Program
Monitoring and Reporting
Co-chairs:
Wayne Draper
Associate Director
Transboundary Air Issues Branch
Environment Canada
Brian McLean
Director, Acid Rain Division
Office of Atmospheric Programs
Environmental Protection Agency
Subcommittee on Scientific
Cooperation
Co-chairs
Ann McMillan
Chief, Science Assessment
and Policy Integration Branch
Atmospheric Environment Service
Environment Canada
Jim Vickery
Assistant Laboratory Director
Air National Exposure Research Laboratory
Office of Research and Development
Environmental Protection Agency
Terms of Reference
U.S.-Canada Air Quality
Committee
1. Review progress made in the implementation of the
Agreement, including its general and specific objec-
tives.
2. Prepare and submit to the Parties a progress report
within a year after entry into force of the Agreement
and at least every two years thereafter.
3. Refer each progress report to the International Joint
Commission for action in accordance with Article IX
of the Agreement.
4. Release each progress report to the public after its sub-
mission to the Parties.
5. Establish reporting subcommittees as required to ful-
fill the above responsibilities.
6. Meet at least once a year and additionally at the
request of the Parties.
7- Not release, without the consent of the owner, any
information identified to it as proprietary information
under the laws of the place where such information
has been acquired.
Subcommittee on Program
Monitoring and Reporting
1. Coordinate activities as outlined in paragraph 2 of
Annex 2 to the Agreement for the purpose of deter-
mining and reporting on air emission levels, historical
trends, and projections.
2. Cooperate and exchange information on development
and demonstration of technologies and measures for
controlling emissions of air pollutants, in particular,
acidic deposition precursors, subject to respective
laws, regulations, and policies, as set forth in subpara-
graph 3(d) of Annex 2 to the Agreement.
3. Cooperate and exchange information on their analy-
sis of market-based mechanisms, including emission
trading, as set forth in paragraph 3(e) of Annex 2 to
the Agreement.
4. Cooperate and exchange information with respect to
economic research that the Parties may agree upon for
purposes of supporting the general and specific objec-
tives of the Agreement, as set forth, in paragraph 3(f)
of Annex 2 to the Agreement.
5. Develop and revise, as necessary, recommendations to
the Air Quality Committee on operational guidelines
for implementation of Article V(2), and cooperate
and exchange information regarding implementation
of sections 3 and 4 of Annex 1 to the Agreement.
6. Assist the Air Quality Committee in reviewing
progress made in the implementation of the
Agreement, including its general and specific objec-
tives, as required under Article VIII of the Agreement,
with respect to areas within its purview.
-------
United S t a t e s - C a n a d a Air Quality Committee
7. Prepare necessary input on issue areas within its
purview for the reports of the Air Quality Committee
required under Article VIII of the Agreement.
8. Support the Air Quality Committee in its preparation
of the report required under Article VIII.
9. Establish ad hoc bilateral working groups as may be
required to fulfill the above responsibilities.
Subcommittee on Scientific
Cooperation
1. Coordinate air pollutant monitoring activities as set
forth in paragraph 1 of Annex 2 to the Agreement for
the purpose of determining and reporting on air pol-
lutant concentrations and deposition.
2. Cooperate and exchange information on their moni-
toring of the effects of changes in air pollutant
concentration and deposition, with respect to changes
in various effects categories, e.g., aquatic ecosystems,
visibility, and forests, as set forth in subparagraph 3 (a)
of Annex 2 to the Agreement.
3. Cooperate and exchange information on their deter-
mination of any effects of atmospheric pollution on
4.
5.
human health and ecosystems, as set forth in subpara-
graph 3(b) of Annex 2 to the Agreement.
Cooperate and exchange information on the develop-
ment and refinement of atmospheric models for
purposes of determining source receptor relationships
and transboundary transport and the position of air
pollutants, as set forth in subparagraph 3(c) of Annex
2 to the Agreement.
Cooperate on approaches to, and share information
and results of research on, methods to mitigate the
impacts of acidic deposition, including the environ-
mental effects and economic aspects of such methods,
as set forth in paragraph 4 of Annex 2 to the
Agreement.
6.
7.
Cooperate and exchange information with respect to
any other scientific or technical activities that the
Parties ask it to undertake to support the general and
specific objectives of the Agreement.
Prepare the necessary scientific input for the reports of
the Air Quality Committee as required under Article
VIII of the Agreement.
8. Establish ad hoc bilateral working groups as may be
required to fulfill the above responsibilities.
73
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A P P E N
I X
B
Agreement Between the Government of the
United States of America and the
Government of Canada on Air Quality
T
he Government of Canada and the Government of
the United States of America, hereinafter referred to
as "the Parties",
Convinced that transboundary air pollution can cause
significant harm to natural resources of vital environmen-
tal, cultural and economic importance, and to human
health in both countries;
Desiring that emissions of air pollutants from sources
within their countries not result in significant trans-
boundary air pollution;
Convinced that transboundary air pollution can effec-
tively be reduced through cooperative or coordinated
action providing for controlling emissions of air pollutants
in bodi countries;
Recalling the efforts they have made to control air pol-
lution and the improved air quality that has resulted from
such efforts in both countries;
Intending to address air-related issues of a global nature,
such as climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion,
in other fora;
Reaffirming Principle 21 of the Stockholm Declaration,
which provides that "States have, in accordance with the
Charter of the United Nations and the principles of inter-
national law, the sovereign right to exploit their own
resources pursuant to their own environmental policies,
and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their
jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the envi-
ronment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of
national jurisdiction";
Noting their tradition of environmental cooperation as
reflected in the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909, the Trail
Smelter Arbitration of 1941, the Great Lakes Water
Quality Agreement of 1978, as amended, the
Memorandum of Intent Concerning Transboundary Air
Pollution of 1980, the 1986 Joint Report of the Special
Envoys on Acid Rain, as well as the ECE Convention on
Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution of 1979;
Convinced that a healthy environment is essential to
assure the well-being of present and future generations in
Canada and the United States, as well as of the global
community;
Have agreed as follows:
Article I
Definitions
For the purposes of this Agreement:
1. "Air pollution" means the introduction by man,
direcdy or indirectly, of substances into the air result-
ing in deleterious effects of such a nature as to
endanger human health, harm living resources and
ecosystems and material property and impair or inter-
fere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the
environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed
accordingly;
2. "Transboundary air pollution" means air pollution
whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part
with the area under the jurisdiction of one Party and
which has adverse effects, other than effects of a glob-
al mature, in the area under the jurisdiction of the
other Party;
3. "Boundary Waters Treaty" means the Treaty Relating
to Boundary Waters and Questions Arising along the
Boundary between Canada and the United States,
signed at Washington on January 11, 1909;
4. "International Joint Commission" means the
International Joint Commission established by the
Boundary Waters Treaty.
75
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APPENDIX B
Article II
Purpose
The purpose of the Parties is to establish, by this
Agreement, a practical and effective instrument to address
shared concerns regarding transboundary air pollution.
Article III
General Air Quality Objective
1. The general objective of the Parties is to control trans-
boundary air pollution between the two countries.
2. To this end, the Parties shall:
(a) in accordance with Article IV, establish specific
objectives for emissions limitations or reductions
of air pollutants and adopt the necessary pro-
grams and other measures to implement such
specific objectives;
(b) in accordance with Article V, undertake environ-
mental impact assessment, prior notification,
and, as appropriate, mitigation measures;
(c) carry out coordinated or cooperative scientific
and technical activities, and economic research, in
accordance with Article VI, and exchange infor-
mation, in accordance with Article VII;
(d) establish institutional arrangements, in accor-
dance widi Articles VIII and IX; and
(e) review and assess progress, consult, address issues
of concern, and settle disputes, in accordance
with Articles X, XI, XII and XIII.
Article IV
Specific Air Quality Objectives
1. Each Party shall establish specific objectives, which it
undertakes to achieve, for emissions limitations or
reductions of such air pollutants as the Parties agree to
address. Such specific objectives will be set forth in
annexes to this Agreement.
2. Each Party's specific objectives for emissions limita-
tions or reductions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen
oxides, which will reduce transboundary flows of
these acidic deposition precursors, are set forth in
Annex 1. Specific objectives for such other air pollu-
tants as the Parties agree to address should take into
account, as appropriate, the activities undertaken pur-
suant to Article VI.
3. Each Party shall adopt the programs and other mea-
sures necessary to implement its specific objectives set
forth in any annexes.
4. If either Party has concerns about the programs or
other measures of the other Party referred to in para-
graph 3, it may request consultations in accordance
with Article XI.
Article V
Assessment, Notification, and
Mitigation
1. Each Party shall, as appropriate and as required by its
laws, regulations and policies, assess those proposed
actions, activities and projects within the area under
its jurisdiction that, if carried out, would be likely to
cause significant transboundary air pollution, includ-
ing consideration of appropriate mitigation measures.
2. Each Party shall notify the other Party concerning a
proposed action, activity or project subject to assess-
ment under paragraph 1 as early as practicable in
advance of a decision concerning such action, activity
or project and shall consult with the other Party at its
request in accordance with Article XI.
3. In addition, each Party shall, at the request of the
other Party, consult in accordance with Article XI
concerning any continuing actions, activities or pro-
jects that may be causing significant transboundary air
pollution, as well as concerning changes to its laws,
regulation or policies that, if carried out, would be
likely to affect significantly transboundary air pollu-
tion.
4. Consultations pursuant to paragraphs 2 and 3 con-
cerning actions, activities or projects that would be
likely to cause or may be causing significant trans-
boundary air pollution shall include consideration of
appropriate mitigation measures.
76
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Agreement Between the Government of the United States of
America and the Government of Canada on Air Quality
5. Each Party shall, as appropriate, take measures to
avoid or mitigate the potential risk posed by actions,
activities or projects that would be likely to cause or
may be causing significant transboundary air
pollution.
6. If either Party becomes aware of an air pollution prob-
lem that is of joint concern and requires an immediate
response, it shall notify and consult the other Party
forthwith.
Article VI
Scientific and Technical Activities
and Economic Research
1. The Parties shall carry out scientific and technical
activities, and economic research, as set forth in
Annex 2, in order to improve their understanding of
transboundary air pollution concerns and to increase
their capability to control such pollution.
2. In implementing this Article, the Parties may seek the
advice of the International Joint Commission regard-
ing the conduct of monitoring activities.
Article VII
Exchange of Information
1. The Parties agree to exchange, on a regular basis and
through the Air Quality Committee established under
Article VIII, information on:
(a) monitoring;
(b) emissions;
(c) technologies, measures and mechanisms for con-
trolling emissions;
(d) atmospheric processes; and
(e) effects of air pollutants,
as provided in Annex 2.
2. Notwithstanding any other provisions of this
Agreement, the Air Quality Committee and the
International Joint Commission shall not release,
without the consent of the owner, any information
identified to them as proprietary information under
the laws of the place where such information has been
acquired.
Article VIII
The Air Quality Committee
1. The Parties agree to establish and maintain a bilateral
Air Quality Committee to assist in die implementa-
tion of this Agreement. The Committee shall be
composed of an equal number of members represent-
ing each Party. It may be supported by
subcommittees, as appropriate.
2. The Committee's responsibilities shall include:
(a) reviewing progress made in the implementation
of this Agreement, including its general and spe-
cific objectives;
(b) preparing and submitting to the Parties a progress
report within a year after entry into force of this
Agreement and at least every two years diereafter;
(c) referring each progress report to the International
joint Commission for action in accordance with
Article IX of this Agreement; and
(d) releasing each progress report to the public after
its submission to the Parties.
3. The Committee shall meet at least once a year and
additionally at the request of either Party.
Article IX
Responsibilities of the
International Joint Commission
1. The International Joint Commission is hereby given,
by a Reference pursuant to Article IX of the Boundary
"Waters Treaty, the following responsibilities for die
sole purpose of assisting the Parties in the implemen-
tation of this Agreement:
(a) to invite comments, including through public
hearings as appropriate, on each progress report
prepared by the Air Quality Committee pursuant
to Article VIII;
77
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APPENDIX B
(b) to submit to the Parties a synthesis of the views
presented pursuant to sub-paragraph (a), as well
as the record of such views if either Party so
requests; and
(c) to release the synthesis of views to the public after
its submission to the Parties.
2. In addition, the Parties shall consider such other joint
references to the International Joint Commission as
may be appropriate for the effective implementation
of this Agreement.
Article X
Review and Assessment
1. Following the receipt of each progress report submit-
ted to diem by the Air Quality Committee in
accordance with Article VIII and the views presented
to die International Joint Commission on diat report
in accordance widi Article IX, die Parties shall consult
on die contents of the progress report, including any
recommendations therein.
2. The Parties shall conduct a comprehensive review and
assessment of this Agreement, and its implementa-
tion, during the fifth year after its entry into force and
every five years thereafter, unless otherwise agreed.
3. Following the consultations referred to in paragraph
1, as well as the review and assessment referred to in
paragraph 2, die Parties shall consider such action as
may be appropriate, including:
(a) the modification of diis Agreement;
(b) die modification of existing policies, programs or
measures.
Article XI
Consultations
The Parties shall consult, at the request of either Party,
on any matter within the scope of this Agreement. Such
consultations shall commence as soon as practicable, but
in any event not later than diirty days from the date of
receipt of the request for consultations, unless otherwise
agreed by the Parties.
Article XII
Referrals
With respect to cases other than those subject to Article
XIII, if, after consultations in accordance with Article XI,
an issue remains concerning a proposed or continuing
action, activity, or project that is causing or would be like-
ly to cause significant transboundary air pollution, the
Parties shall refer the matter to an appropriate third party
in accordance with agreed terms of reference.
Article XIII
Settlement of Disputes
1. If, after consultations in accordance with Article XI, a
dispute remains between the Parties over the interpre-
tation or the implementation of this Agreement, they
shall seek to resolve such dispute by negotiations
between them. Such negotiations shall commence as
soon as practicable, but in any event not later than
ninety days from the date of receipt of the request for
negotiation, unless otherwise agreed by the Parties.
2. If a dispute is not resolved through negotiation, the
Parties shall consider whether to submit that dispute
to the International Joint Commission in accordance
with either Article IX or Article X of the Boundary
Waters Treaty. If, after such consideration, the Parties
do not elect either of these options, they shall, at the
request of either Party, submit the dispute to another
agreed form of dispute resolution.
Article XIV
Implementation
1. The obligations undertaken under diis Agreement
shall be subject to the availability of appropriated
funds in accordance with the respective constitution-
al procedures of the Parties.
2. The Parties shall seek:
(a) the appropriation of funds required to implement
this Agreement;
(b) the enactment of any additional legislation that
may be necessary to implement this Agreement;
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Agreement Between the Government of the United States of
America and the Government of Canada on Air Quality
(c) the cooperation of Provincial and State
Governments as necessary to implement this
Agreement.
3. In implementing this Agreement, the Parties shall, as
appropriate, consult with Provincial or State
Governments, interested organizations, and the public.
Article XV
Existing Rights and Obligations
Nothing in this Agreement shall be deemed to diminish
the rights and obligations of the Parties in other interna-
tional agreements between them, including those
contained in the Boundary Waters Treaty and the Great
Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978, as amended.
Article XVI
Entry into Force, Amendment,
Termination
1. This Agreement, including Annexes 1 and 2, shall
enter into force upon signature by the Parties.
2. This Agreement may be amended at any time by
agreement of the Parties in writing.
3. Either Party may terminate this Agreement upon one
year's written notice to the other Party, in which case
any annexes will also terminate.
4. Annexes constitute an integral part of this Agreement,
except that, if an annex so provides, either Party may
terminate such annex in accordance with the terms of
that annex.
Annex 1
Specific Objectives Concerning
Sulphur Dioxide and Nitrogen
Oxides
1. Sulphur Dioxide
A. For the United States:1
1. Reduction of annual sulphur dioxide emis-
sions by approximately 10 million tons2 from
1980 levels in accordance with Title IV of the
Clean Air Act3 i.e., reduction of annual sul-
phur dioxide emissions to approximately 10
million tons below 1980 levels by 2000 (with
the exception of sources repowering with
qualifying clean coal technology in accor-
dance with section 409 of the Clean Air Act,
and sources receiving bonus allowances in
accordance with section 405(a)(2) and (3) of
the Clean Air Act.).
2. Achievement of a permanent national emis-
sion cap of 8.95 million tons of sulphur
dioxide per year for electric utilities by 2010,
to the extent required by Tide IV of the
Clean Air Act.
3. Promulgation of new or revised standards or
such other action under the Clean Air Act as
the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) deems appropriate,
to the extent required by section 406 of the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (P.L.
101-549), aimed at limiting sulphur dioxide
emissions from industrial sources in the event
that the Administrator of EPA determines
that annual sulphur dioxide emissions from
industrial sources may reasonably be expect-
ed to exceed 5.6 million tons.
Applies only to reductions in emissions in the forty-eight contiguous
States and the District of Columbia.
21 ton = 0.91 tonnes (metric tons).
3A11 references to the Clean Air Act refer to the Act as amended
November 15,1990.
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APPENDIX B
B. For Canada:
1. Reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions in
the seven easternmost Provinces to 2.3 mil-
lion tonnes per year by 1994 and the
achievement of a cap on sulphur dioxide
emissions in the seven easternmost Provinces
at 2.3 million tonnes per year from 1995
through December 31, 1999.
2. Achievement of a permanent national emis-
sions cap of 3.2 million tonnes per year by
2000.
2. Nitrogen Oxides
A. For the United States.4
With a view to a reduction of total annual emis-
sions of nitrogen oxides by approximately 2
million tons from 1980 emission levels by 2000:
1. Stationary Sources
Implementation of the following nitrogen
oxides control program for electric utility
boilers to the extent required by Title IV of
the Clean Air Act:
(a) By January 1, 1995, tangentially fired
boilers must meet an allowable emission
rate of 0.45 Ib/mmBtu and dry bottom
wall-fired boilers must meet an allowable
emission rate of 0.50 Ib/mmBtu (unless
the Administrator of EPA determines
that these rates cannot be achieved using
NOx burner technology).
(b) By January 1, 1997, EPA must set allow-
able emission limitations for:
—wet bottom wall-fired boilers;
—cyclones;
—units applying cell burner technology; and
—all other types of utility boilers.
2. Mobile Sources
Implementation of the following mobile
source nitrogen oxides control program to
the extent required by Title II of the Clean
Air Act:
(a) Light Duty Trucks (LOT) (up to 6000
Ibs gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR))
LDls
(0 to 3750 Ibs
Loaded Vehicle Weight
(LVW)) and LDVs
and Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) — stan-
dards for model years after 1993:
5 yrs/50,000 miles 10 yrs/100,000 miles
(useful life)
0.4 grams per mile 0.6 gpm
Diesel LDTs
(0 to 3750 Ibs LVW) and
LDVs (before 2004)
LDIs
(3751 to 5750 Ibs LVW)
1.0 gpm
0.7 gpm5
1.25 gpm
0.97 gpm
In model year 1994, 40% of each manufac-
turers sales volume must meet the above
standards. In 1995, the percentage shall
increase to 80% and, after 1995, to 100%.
(b) Light Duty Trucks more than 6000 Ibs
GVWR (after model year 1995):
Gasoline Gasoline and Diesel
5 yrs/50,000 miles 11 yrs/120,000 miles
LDTs
(3751 to 5750 Ibs
lest Weight (TW))
LDls
(over 5750 Ibs 1W)
0.7 gpm
1.1 gpm
0.98 gpm
1.53 gpm
In model year 1996, 50% of each manufac-
turer's sales volume must meet the above
standards. Thereafter, 100% of each manu-
facturer's sales volume must meet the
standard.
^Applies only to reductions in emissions in the forty-eight contiguous
States and the District of Columbia.
5This standard does not apply to diesel-fuelled LDTs (3751 to 5750 Ibs
LVW).
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Agreement Between the Government of the United States of
America and the Government of Canada on Air Quality
(c) Heavy Duty Trucks (HDT) of more than
8500 ibs GVWR (after model year 1990):
Gasoline & Diesel Engines
HDT (Effective model
year 1991«)
HDT (model year
1998 and later)
5.0 grams per brake horsepower-hour6 (gbhp-hr)
4.0 gbhp-hr
Light Duty Vehicles (up to 6000 Ibs GVWR)
(By Model year 1996 for passenger cars)
(By model year 1996 for light duty trucks?):
5 yrs/80,000 kilometers (useful life)
Cors ond Light Duty Trucks 0.4 gpm
(Oto3750lbsLVW)
Light Duty Trucks 0.7 gpm
(3751 to 5750 Ibs LVW)
Useful life*:
Gasoline Engine
8 yrs/110,000 miles
Diesel Engines
Light heavy-duty:
Medium heavy-duty:
Heavy heavy-duty.-
8 yrs/110,000 miles
8 yrs/185,000 miles
8 yrs/290,000 miles
B. For Canada:
1. Stationary Sources
(a) As an interim requirement, reduction, by
2000, of annual national emissions of
nitrogen oxides from stationary sources
by 100,000 tonnes below the year 2000
forecast level of 970,000 tonnes.
(b) By January 1, 1995, development of fur-
ther annual national emission reduction
requirements from stationary sources to
be achieved by 2000 and/or 2005-
2. Mobile Sources
(a) Implementation of a more stringent
mobile source nitrogen oxides control
program for gasoline powered vehicles
with standards no less stringent than the
following:
Medium Duty Vehicles (6001 to 8500 Ibs
GVWR) (By model year 19977):
5 yrs/80,000 kilometers (useful life)
0 to 3750 Ibs LVW
3751 to 5750 Ibs LVW
Over 5750 Ibs IVW
0.4 gpm
0.7 gpm
1.1 gpm
Heavy Duty Vehicles (over 8500 Ibs GVWR)
(By model year 19987):
8 years/110,000 miles (useful life)
Over 8500 Ibs GVWR
4.0 gbhp-hr
(b) Implementation of a more stringent
mobile source nitrogen oxides control
program for diesel powered vehicles and
engines with standards, to the extent pos-
sible, no less stringent that the standards
for the respective duty classes of gasoline
powered vehicles and engines.
6As set forth in EPA regulations in effect as of the entry into force of
this Agreement.
7The government of Canada will propose this effective date; the
final effective date is subject to the procedures and outcome of the
regulation development process.
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APPENDIX B
3. Compliance Monitoring
A. Utility Units
1. For the United States:
Requirement that, by January 1, 1995, each
new electric utility unit and each electric util-
ity unit greater than 25 MWe existing on the
date of enactment of the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1990 (November 15, 1990)
emitting sulphur dioxide or nitrogen oxides
install and operate continuous emission
monitoring systems or alternative systems
approved by the Administrator of EPA, to the
extent required by section 412 of the Clean
Air Act.
2. For Canada:
Requirement that, by January 1, 1995,
Canada estimate sulphur dioxide and nitro-
gen oxides emissions from each new electric
utility unit and each existing electric utility
unit greater than 25 MWe using a method of
comparable effectiveness to continuous emis-
sion monitoring, as well as investigate the
feasibility of using and implement, where
appropriate, continuous emission monitoring
systems.
3. For Both Parties:
The Parties shall consult, as appropriate, con-
cerning the implementation of the above.
B. Other Major Stationary Sources
Requirement that the Parties work towards utiliz-
ing comparably effective methods of emission
estimation for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen
oxides emissions from all major industrial boilers
and process sources, including smelters.
4. Prevention of Air Quality Deterioration and Visibility
Protection
Recognizing the importance of preventing significant
air quality deterioration and protecting visibility, par-
ticularly for international parks, national, state, and
provincial parks, and designated wilderness areas:
A. For the United States:
Requirement that the United States maintain
means for preventing significant air quality dete-
rioration and protecting visibility, to the extent
required by Part C of Tide I of the Clean Air Act,
with respect to sources that could cause signifi-
cant transboundary air pollution.
B. For Canada:
Requirement that Canada, by January 1, 1995,
develop and implement means affording levels of
prevention of significant air quality deterioration
and protection of visibility comparable to those in
paragraph A above, with respect to sources that
could cause significant transboundary air pollu-
tion.
C. For Both Parties:
The Parties shall consult, as appropriate, concern-
ing the implementation of the above.
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Agreement Between the Government of the United States of
America and the Government of Canada on Air Quality
Annex 2
Scientific and Technical Activities
and Economic Research
1. For the purpose of determining and reporting on air
pollutant concentrations and deposition, the Parties
agree to coordinate their air pollutant monitoring
activities through:
(a) coordination of existing networks;
(b) additions to monitoring tasks of existing net-
works of those air pollutants that the Parties agree
should be monitored for the purposes of this
Agreement;
(c) addition of stations or networks where no existing
monitoring facility can perform a necessary func-
tion for purposes of this Agreement;
(d) the use of compatible data management proce-
dures, formats, and methods; and
(e) the exchange of monitoring data.
2. For the purpose of determining and reporting air
emissions levels, historical trends, and projections
with respect to the achievement of the general and
specific objectives set forth in this Agreement, the
Parties agree to coordinate their activities through:
(a) identification of such air emissions information
that the Parties agree should be exchanged for the
purposes of this Agreement;
(b) the use of measurement and estimation proce-
dures of comparable effectiveness;
(c) the use of compatible data management proce-
dures, formats, and methods; and
(d) the exchange of air emission information.
3. The Parties agree to cooperate and exchange informa-
tion with respect to:
4.
(a) their monitoring of the effects of changes in air
pollutant concentrations and deposition with
respect to changes in various effects categories,
e.g. aquatic ecosystems, visibility, and forests;
(b) their determination of any effects of atmospheric
pollution on human health and ecosystems, e.g.
research on health effects of acid aerosols, research
on the long-term effects of low concentrations of
air pollutants on ecosystems, possibly in a critical
loads framework;
(c) their development and refinement of atmospher-
ic models for purposes of determining source
receptor relationships and transboundary trans-
port and deposition of air pollutants;
(d) their development and demonstration of tech-
nologies and measures for controlling emissions
of air pollutants, in particular acidic deposition
precursors, subject to their respective laws, regu-
lations and policies;
(e) their analysis of market-based mechanisms,
including emissions trading; and
(f) any other scientific and technical activities or eco-
nomic research that the Parties may agree upon
for purposes of supporting the general and specif-
ic objectives of this Agreement.
The Parties further agree to consult on approaches to,
and share information and results of research on,
methods to mitigate the impacts of acidic deposition,
including the environmental effects and economic
aspects of such methods.
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For More Information
If you are interested in obtaining information on the scientific and technical issues of acid deposition, contact:
In the United States
National Acid Precipitation
Assesment Program
722 Jackson Place, NW
Washington, DC 20503
In Canada
Environment Canada
Science Assessment and Policy Integration Branch
4905 Dufferin Street
Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4
If you are interested in obtaining information on the acid deposition control program, contact:
In the United States
Acid Rain Division
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mail Code 6204J
401 M Street, SW
Washington, DC 20460
In Canada
Acid Rain Program
Transboundary Air Issues Branch
Environment Canada
351 St. Joseph Boulevard
Place Vincent Massey - 11th Floor
Hull, Quebec K1A OH3
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International Joint Commission
Commission mixte Internationale
Your Comments on this Report
Would Be Appreciated
he International Joint Commission invites your comments on the Progress Report of the Air Quality Committee
under the Canada-United States Air Quality Agreement. The Agreement assigns the Commission, an indepen-
dent organization, responsibility for inviting public comment on the report and preparing a synthesis of the
comments received for the Governments of the United States and Canada and for public release.
Secretary, Canadian Section Secretary, United States Section
International Joint Commission International Joint Commission
100 Metcalfe Street 1250 23rd Street, NW, Suite 100
Ottawa, Ontario KIP 5M1 Washington, DC 20440
Fax: (613) 993-5583 Fax: (202) 736-9015
Email: terrienm@ijc.achilles.net Email: bevacquaf@ijc.achilles.net
Name:
Organization (if applicable):
Address:
City: State/Prov: Postal/Zip Code:
Comments:
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