oEPA
            United States
            Environmental Protection
            Agency
            Environmental Research
            Laboratory
            Duluth MN 55804
EPA-600 3 79-015
February 1979
            Research and Development
Results of a Joint
U.S.A./U.S.S.R.
Hydrodynamic and
Transport
Modeling Project

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                 RESEARCH  REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology. Elimination of traditional  grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:

      1.   Environmental Health Effects Research
      2.   Environmental Protection Technology
      3.   Ecological Research
      4.   Environmental Monitoring
      5.   Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
      6.   Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
      7.   Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
      8.   "Special" Reports
      9.   Miscellaneous Reports

This report has been assigned to the ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH series. This series
describes research on the effects of pollution on humans, plant and animal spe-
cies,  and materials. Problems are assessed for their long- and short-term influ-
ences. Investigations include formation, transport, and pathway studies to deter-
mine the fate of pollutants and their effects. This work provides the technical basis
for setting standards to minimize undesirable changes in living organisms in the
aquatic,  terrestrial, and atmospheric environments.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                              EPA-600/3-79-015
                                              February 1979
RESULTS OF A JOINT U.S.A./U.S.S.R. HYDRODYNAMIC
         AND TRANSPORT MODELING PROJECT
                       by
     John F. Paul and William L. Richardson
          Large Lakes Research Station
    Environmental Research Laboratory-Duluth
           Grosse He, Michigan 48138
                     U.S.A.

              Alexandr B. Gorstko
 Institute of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics
            Rostov State University
                 Rostov-on-Don
                    U.S.S.R.

                      and

               Anton A. Matveyev
            Hydrochemical Institute
          Hydrometeorological Services
                 Novocherkassk
                    U.S.S.R.
       ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
       OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
      U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
            DULUTH, MINNESOTA  55804

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                                 DISCLAIMER
    This report has been reviewed by the Large Lakes Research Station,
Environmental Research Laboratory-Duluth, Grosse lie, Michigan, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication.  Mention of
trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recom-
mendation for use.

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                                  FOREWORD
    The Environmental Research Laboratory - Duluth is concerned with the
effects of pollutants on freshwater ecosystems, particularly the Laurentian
Great Lakes.  The development and verification of mathematical models
describing the transport and fate of pollutants in freshwater ecosystems
are carried out at the Large Lakes Research Station at Grosse He, Michigan.

    This report describes a modeling effort accomplished under the Lakes
and Estuaries Project of the U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Agreement on Cooperation in
the Field of Environmental Protection.  Models developed by scientists in
one country were applied to aquatic systems in the other country and com-
pared to existing data.  The accomplishments of these researchers demon-
strate the utility of joint scientific collaborations between countries.
                                     Donald I. Mount, Ph.D.
                                     Director
                                     Environmental Research Laboratory
                                     Duluth, Minnesota
                                    111

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                                  PREFACE
    The U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Agreement on Cooperation  in the Field of Environ-
mental Protection was  first  signed  in  1972 and has just recently been re-
negotjiated.  Eleven areas of cooperation were enumerated, ranging  from air
and water pollution to  legal aspects.  As a result of  this agreement,
hundreds of scientists  and engineers from the two participating countries
have made exchange visits.

    This present work  was accomplished under the  auspices of Project
02.02-12, Protection and Management of Water Quality in Lakes and  Estuaries,
of the Environmental Agreement.  The intent of the authors in undertaking
this particular work was to  provide a  contact between  researchers  in the
two countries who were  involved  in  describing and modeling various aspects
of the processes in large bodies of water.  It was also our desire to do a
modeling project whereby scientists from both countries could work together,
each providing some part of  their expertise for the benefit of the project.
We think that we have  accomplished  this and hope  that  others will  think so
also.  We would like readers of  this report to keep in mind that this work
was initiated and completed  in a relatively short period of time compared
to the normal frame of time  for  a scientific project.  This work did not
encompass all that we  had originally intended.  We realize that it was more
important for us to show how scientists from our  two countries could work
together on a definite project rather  than to make sure we completed every-
thing.  Since this was  just  an initial modeling effort, many areas could
not be covered in as much detail as one would have liked.  Hopefully, the
modeling efforts between the scientists of our two countries will  be con-
tinued in the near  future and  the fruits of these joint undertakings will
be an increase in the  credibility of the use of modeling in the aquatic
environment.

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                                  ABSTRACT
    A joint modeling project with scientists from the U.S.A. and U.S.S.R.
has been accomplished.  The three geographical areas investigated  include
Lake Baikal and the Sea of Azov in the U.S.S.R. and Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron
in the U.S.A.  The modeling approaches ranged from those employing material
and mass conservation to describe water movement to those involving
solution of the complete three-dimensional hydrodynamic equations.  The
model calculations were compared to available data and, in all cases, rea-
sonable agreement was obtained.

    This report covers a period from May 1977 to December 1977, and work
was completed as of April 1978.

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                                  CONTENTS
Foreword	1-11
Preface	    iv
Abstract 	    v
Figures	    ix
Tables	    xi
Acknowledgements	xii

    1.  Introduction 	    1
    2.  Conclusions and Recommendations  	    3
    3.  Lake Baikal	    4
             Background of Lake Baikal and Selenga River Region  ...    4
             Experimental Data and Methods 	    6
                  Whole Lake Circulation   	    6
                  Circulation in the Selenga River Shallows  	    7
             Problems to be Addressed  	    9
    4.  Saginaw Bay	    12
             Background of Saginaw Bay	    12
             Experimental Data and Methods	    13
             Problems to be Addressed	    13
    5.  Sea of Azov	    19
             Background of Sea of Azov	    19
             Experimental Data and Methods	    19
             Problems to be Addressed	    26
    6.  Mathematical Models  	    27
             Hydrodynamic Model  	    27
                  Summary of hydrodynamic component  	    27
                  Summary of dispersion component  	    30
             Transport Models  	    31
                  Type 1 transport model	    31
                  Type 2 transport model	    34
                  Comparison of transport models 	    36
    7.  Results	    37
             Lake Baikal	    37
                  Hydrodynamic and dispersion calculations 	    37
                  Type 1 transport calculation	    58
             Saginaw Bay	    58
                  Type 1 transport calculation	    58
                  Type 2 transport calculation	    58
             Sea of Azov	    58
                  Hydrodynamic and dispersion calculation  	    58
                  Type 1 transport calculation	    78
                                    VII

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References	    83

Appendices
    A.  Text of U.S.A./U.S.S.R.  Agreement  on  Cooperation  in  the
             Field of  Environmental- Protection  	    86
    B.  Background on  the  Sea  of Azov  and  Lake  Baikal  ecosystems  ...     *
    C.  Results of hydrodynamic  and  dispersion  calculations  for
             Lake Baikal and Sea of  Azov	     *
    D.  Meteorological, hydrological and  chemical  data for Selenga
             Shadows  in May-June 1976	     *
 *These  appendices appear in a separate volume.
                                     V1.lt

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                                  FIGURES


Number                                                                 Page

   1      Lake Baikal	    5

   2      Selenga River Region of Lake Baikal  	    8

   3      Observed surface currents in the Selenga River Region
             of Lake Baikal	10

   4      Saginaw Bay, including 1974 sampling network 	   13

   5      Inner Saginaw Bay, Segment 2, water quality for
             1974-1976	17

   6      Sea of Azov	20

   7      Observed currents in Sea of Azov during Summer of 1957  ...   22

   8      Type 2 transport model calibration process for
             Saginaw Bay	35

   9      Hydrodynamic model grid for Lake Baikal calculation  ....   38

  10      Frequency of winds over Lake Baikal in the Summer and
             Autumn	40

  11      Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal with
             southwest wind	41

  12      Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal with
             northwest wind	43

  13      Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal with
             southwest wind and northern basin ice covered	46

  14      Lake Baikal whole lake dominant currents 	   48

  15      Dispersion model calculation for Lake Baikal with
             southwest wind	50

  16      Sample results from Hydromet cruise in Selenga Shallows
             on 28-29 May 1976	54
                                     IX

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Number                                                                 Page

  17      Landsat satellite images of Lake Baikal   	  56

  18      Fourteen-segment Type  1 transport model  for Lake Baikal   .  .  59

  19      Sixteen-segment Type 1 transport model for Saginaw Bay  ...  61

  20      Type 2  transport model calibration with  1965 Saginaw Bay
             chloride concentrations 	  62

  21      Type 2  transport model verification with  1974 Saginaw Bay
             chloride concentrations 	  63

  22      Type 2  transport model water  exchanges for Saginaw Bay  ...  64

  23      Hydrodynamic model grid for Sea of Azov  calculation  ....  67

  24      Hydrodynamic model calculations for Sea  of Azov	70

  25      Surface salinity in Sea of Azov after six months with
             and  without  increased Don  River flow	73

  26      Dispersion model calculation  for Sea of  Azov	74

  27      Type  1  transport model calculation for Sea of Azov	79
                                      x

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                                   TABLES
Number                                                                  Page

   1      Annual. Average Water Balance for Lake Baikal During  the
             Period 1901-1970  	   4

   2      Saginaw Bay Cruise Schedule for 1974-1975   	   15

   3      Analytical Methodology for Saginaw Bay Water Quality
             Parameters	16

   4      Parameters of Inflow/Outflow for Sea of Azov During Summer
             of 1957	25

   5      Long Term Water Balance for Sea of Azov	21

   6      Hydrodynamic and Dispersion Model Parameters for
             Lake Baikal	39

   7      Characteristics of Fourteen-Segment Type 1 Transport
             Model for Lake Baikal	60

   8      Hydrodynamic and Dispersion Model Parameters for Sea of
             Azov	65

   9      Parameters for Three Wind Cases of Sea of Azov Cal-
             culations 	68

  10      Type 1 Transport Model Salinity for Sea of Azov	82
                                     XI

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                              ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
    This work could not have been undertaken without the sponsorship of the
coordinators for the Lakes and Estuaries Project, Drs. T.T. Davies and A.A.
Zenin.

    We would like to thank Ms. Elaine Fitzback for providing "Uason for our
two groups during the course of this work.

    Dr. Michael Sydor, University of Minnesota-Duluth, provided the Landsat
satellite images.

    We would like to thank the staff of the Large Lakes Research Station
for providing us with assistance on this report.  In particular, we wish to
thank Mr. Nelson A. Thomas, Chief of the Large Lakes Program, for providing
the American authors with the opportunity to participate in this project.
Our special gratitude to Ms. Debra Caudill who typed the manuscript.
                                     XII

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                                 SECTION 1

                                INTRODUCTION
    The United States of America (U.S.A.) and Union of Soviet  Socialist
Republic (U.S.S.R.) are confronted with many environmental problems which
can affect the health and welfare of their respective societies.  Expanding
populations and industries, and increasing urbanization and  farming have re-
sulted in alterations to the hydrosphere and to changes in loads of waste
materials which effect the quality of the environment.  The mutual concern
for the environment provided the impetus for the U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Agreement
on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection signed  in 1972
(Appendix A).

    As part of the Agreement, Project 02.02-12, Protection and Management
of Water Quality in Lakes and Estuaries, was initiated.  Although the two
nations share no common boundaries on any lake or estuary, they do share a
common concern for water quality preservation, and the need  to understand
the physical, chemical, and biological processes that effect and determine
water quality.  To share scientific knowledge on limnological processes, a
joint modeling project was initiated during the exchange visit by Soviet
representatives to the U.S.A. in 1976.

    In June 1977, Dr. Tudor T. Davies from U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA), Environmental Research Laboratory, Gulf Breeze, Florida, and
Dr. John F. Paul and Mr. William L. Richardson from EPA, Large Lakes
Research Station, Grosse lie, Michigan, visited the Institute of Mechanics
and Applied Mathematics, Rostov State University, Rostov-on-Don, U.S.S.R.
They met with Drs. A.A. Zenin, A.A. Matveyev, A.B. Gorstko and F.A. Surkov.
During this visit, the details of the joint modeling project were arranged,
and a project report outline prepared.  As a first step, it was agreed to
compare formulations and results of hydrodynamic and transport models
developed by the two groups.  The objective was to provide a basis for
further verification of lakewide and nearshore hydrodynamic and transport
models.

    It was agreed that three geographical areas and three model formula-
tions would be investigated.  The areas are:

         1.  Lake Baikal (U.S.S.R.) with special emphasis on
             the Selenga River plume
         2.  Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron (U.S.A.)
         3.  Sea of Azov (U.S.S.R.)

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The three modeling approaches are:

         1.  Hydrodynamic modeling using conservation  equa-
             tions for mass, energy, and momentum  as developed
             by Dr. Paul
         2.  Transport modeling using mass  conservation  as
             developed by Drs. Gorstko  and  Surkov,  referred
             to as type 1
         3.  Transport modeling using conservation of  material
             and water mass as applied  to Saginaw  Bay  by Mr.
             Richardson, referred to as type  2

    Approaches  1 and 2 would be applied to  Lake  Baikal and to the  Sea  of
Azov, and  approaches ?. and 3 to Saginaw Bay.  The  model  results  were  to be
compared to availabe data, and if possible,  to each other.   The  result of
this would provide additional verification  for the models, and determine
whether or not  refinements were necessary.

    This report provides a general background summary  on each of the  3
water bodies, followed by a synopsis of the mathematical models  used.  The
applications of these models and comparisons  with  available  data are  then
presented.  The appendices provide reference  materials for those unfamiliar
with the U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Environmental  Agreement,  additional background on
Lake Baikal and the Sea of Azov, detailed results  of the hydrodynamic  and
dispersion calculations summarized in the main report, and data  for  the
Selenga shallows region of Lake Baikal  in May-June 1976. Appendices  B, C,
and D appear in a separate volume, which  is available  from National  Techni-
cal Information Services (NTIS).

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                                  SECTION  2

                      CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    The results of the model calculations were compared  to available  data
and, in all cases, reasonable agreement was obtained.

    It was shown that the hydrodynamic model calculation for the  Sea  of
Azov could be useful in assessing the effects of hydrologic modifications.

    The results of the work completed under this project, including compari-
sons between U.S.A. and U.S.S.R. models and comparisons  to field  data, have
permitted the participants to make an initial determination of the degree of
agreement and validity of the existing hydrodynamic and  transport models.

    This work represents a preliminary step in a possible comprehensive com-
parison of modeling methodology in the two countries among researchers for
both hydrodynamic and biochemical models.  It is hoped this project will
lead to further cooperation among modelers of both countries.

    A more detailed comparison of models will require a  continuing commit-
ment by both nations, as well as by the individual modelers.  The time re-
quired for the present study was about one month, with two weeks  spent in
each country.

    It may be desirable to continue this type of work through the Inter-
national Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg,
Austria.  The total time required would be on the order  of one to two years,
with periodic exchange visits to IIASA by the persons involved.

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                                 SECTION 3

                                LAKE BAIKAL


BACKGROUND OF LAKE BAIKAL AND SELENGA RIVER REGION

    The basin of Lake Baikal is located almost centrally in Asia,  in a very
rugged mountain province in south Siberia, the Baikal Region.  The charac-
teristic geomorphological features of the region include medium and high
mountain ranges extending over 1500 km in the southwest to northeast direc-
tion, and an alternation of ridges and trenches, the  largest of which is
filled with waters of the lake.

    Lake Baikal is the oldest and deepest intracontinental body of water  in
the world.  The formation of the Baikal trench began  about 30 million years
ago.  The watershed area of the lake is 0.54 million  km2, and the  area of
the lake itself is 31.5 thousand km2.  The length of  the lake is 636 km;
maximum width, 79 km; minimum width, 25 km; maximum depth, 1620 m; and
volume of the water mass, about 23 thousand km3.  The topography of the
lake is shown in Figure 1.  The trench of Lake Baikal is divided into three
basins, of which the middle one is the deepest.  It is separated from the
southern basin by the Selenga shallows, a delta formed by the lake's
largest tributary, the Selenga River.  The contribution of the Selenga
amounts to about 50% of the total runoff into the lake.  Table 1 provides
an annual average water balance for the lake (Vikulina and Kashinova 1973").
     TABLE 1.  ANNUAL AVERAGE WATER BALANCE FOR LAKE BAIKAL DURING THE
                        PERIOD  1901-1970  ^
    _ Inflow _ Outflow

    Precipitation           9.29       Runoff  to Angara River    60.39
    Condensation on lake               Evaporation               10.77
       surface                .82
    River inflow           58.75
    Groundwater inflow      2.30

    Total                  71.16       Total                     71.16

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                                                                     UPPER ANGARA
                                                   NIZHNEANGARSK :^^. RIVER
                        (Depth contours expressed in meters.)
SLYUDYANKA"' '.^.^^Siyifc^rpr!
                        Figure  1.   Lake Baikal

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    Lake Baikal contains approximately 4/5 of the total surface water re-
serves of the U.S.S.R.  However, the importance of the lake does not end
there.  During the past approximately 1 million years, when this body of
water was formed in its present boundaries, special characteristics were
developed:  low solute content, high transparency, low temperature, and
high saturation with dissolved oxygen.

    Lake Baikal's ecosystem is distinct and closely balanced.  In the
course of its evolution, its organisms have adapted to conditions varying
little with time, and have reacted very sensitively to changes in these
conditions.  Indicative of this sensitivity is the fact that organisms of
the open deepwater parts of the lake do not dwell in the  shallow regions
near the delta, which are subjected to the action of the  river runoff.
EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND METHODS

    Limnological measurements  in Lake Baikal are made by  a number  of
agencies and institutes in the U.S.S.R.  These  include:

    1.  Hydrochemical Institute of  the Main Administration of  the
        Hydrometeorological  Service of the U.S.S.R.  (hydrochemistry)
    2.  State Hydro1logical Institute of  the Main Administration  of the
        Hydrometeorological  Service of the U.S.S.R.  (hydrology)
    3.  Irkutsk Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service  of  the
        U.S.S.R. (hydrology  and meteorology)
    4.  Trans-Baika1 Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service  of
        the U.S.S.R. (hydrochemistry and hydrology of the Selenga  River)
    5.  Limnological Institute of the Siberian  Branch of  the U.S.S.R.
        Academy of Sciences  (hydrobiology, hydrology, and chemistry of
        sedimentat ion)
    6.  Irkutsk State University ^hydrobio1ogy)

    The relevant data for this report, summarized below,  are the
meteorology, current measurements,  temperature, transparency,  and
concentration of suspended solids.  A description of these data  for Lake
Baikal and the shallows of the Selenga River is provided  in Appendix  B.

Whole Lake Circulation

    The primary cause of water movement  in Lake Baikal  is the  wind.  In
localized areas, like the Selenga River  shallows, an appreciable influence
is also exerted by inertial  forces  formed by large inflows.  In  the central
and southern regions of the  lake, northwesterly winds predominate  (31%  of
the time on an annual basis).  Near the  eastern shore of  southern  Baikal,
strong southeasterly winds are frequent.  The wind speed  distribution is
approximately the  same for all directions on an annual  basis.  The mean
speeds are 5-10 m/sec, but speeds of 16-20 m./sec occur  during  the
spring-summer period.

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    Several types of circulation patterns are  formed by  the  wind.   Six or
seven large scale cyclone-type spirals have been observed  in all  three
basins.  Within these, there are several raesoscale eddies  and secondary cir-
culations, particularly in regions with heterogeneous bottom topography and
shoreline morphometry.

    The currents throughout the Take have an annual variation.  They  in-
crease with intensification of winds after the ""ake n's cleared of  ice  in
May and June, decline during the calmer summer periods,  and  increase  during
the autumn storm period.  The observed average speed of  the  Ta^ge  scale
circulation is about 2-3 km per day (2.3-3.5 cm/sec) during  the navigation
season, and 1-1.5 km per day (1.1-1.8 cm/sec"* during the ice  free  period.
Large scale gusts an order of magnitude higher have been observed  over
short periods.

    In the nearshore region '8-10 km from shore), the currents are  almost
uniformly directed over the vertical column.  The currents do vary  with dis-
tance from shore, e.g., the currents at a distance of 0.4  to  0.6 km from
shore are 1.5 to 2 times lower than those at a distance .of 1.5 to  2 km.
Steady longshore currents begin to appear about 1.5 to 2.5 km  (Aybund
1973").  At 2-3 km, the currents are 1.5 to 2 times lower than at 3  to  5  km.
In the deepwater, the maximum observed current speeds appear  at 25  to  50 m
depth.  The magnitude of the currents then decreases to the  100 m  depth, be-
low which the currents become almost homogeneous in both magnitude  and  di-
rection.  According to observations in southern Lake Baikal during  the  navi-
gation period, average current speeds are in the range of  12-18 cm/sec  at
15 m depth, and 4-8 cm/sec at 50 m and below.

    The vertical variation of the current structure is determined  to a  con-
siderable degree by the temperature stratification in the water.  During
stratification, the deepwater parts of the lake separate into three zones:
1) the upper (dynamically active),  2) the deep, and 3) the bottom  zone.  The
upper zone includes 30% of the total depth and is characterized by  large
current speeds with highly variable current direction.  In the deep zone,
the currents change little with time and in speed.   The bottom zone, not in-
cluding the bottom friction layer,  is characterized by a slight increase in
current magnitude.

    During the cold season, the currents remain but their  speed is much
reduced.  A major part of the time (60%), the magnitude of the currents
under the ice is less than 2 cm/sec.  However, in areas located far from
the shore, speeds of 5-9 cm/sec that persist for 5-1.2 days have been
recorded.

Circulation in the Selenga River Shallows

    The Selenga River is the largest tributary of Lake Baikal.  The
drainage area composes 83.4% of the lake runoff area,  and  the river inflow
amounts to 50% of the total runoff into the lake.  The topography of
Selenga River Shallows is shown in Figure 2.  The distribution of  the river

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 Depth contours expressed in meters.
 Solid lines represent cruise data.
 Broken lines represent interpolated values.
 Dots (•) represent cruise stations.
SELENGA DELTA
                                        0        10       20
                                           KILOMETERS
Figure 2.   Selenga River  Region  of Lake  Baikal.

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water into the lake takes place in a system of numerous  delta branches,
numbering up to 30 during high river flow.  The distribution of  the  river
water through these branches is highly variable, but mostly depends  on  time
of year and river flow.  The speed of the entering river water varies from
6 cm/sec to 70 cm/sec, with penetration of the water into  the lake varying
from .3-.4 km to 9 km.

    The distribution of the Selenga River water, once  it enters  the  lake,
is highly dependent upon the local wind field.  During southwesterly winds,
the river water has been detected along the eastern and  northeastern shore
of the lake at up to 130 km.  In the presence of northeasterly winds, the
river water is transported to the region south of the  delta.  Examples  of
observed surface currents and their short-term variation in the  Selenga
River Shallows region are shown in Figure 3.  It should be noted  that the
current patterns are dependent on the perseverance of  the wind from  a
particular direction.
PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED

    Of particular importance to the existing and future water quality of
the lake as a whole, and to the Selenga River area in particular, is the
Selenga River basin.  Anthropogenic factors influence the character of  the
Selenga River and its chemical runoff.  It is hoped that rational efforts
and sound measures will be undertaken to preserve a healthy ecosystem,  and,
at the same time, allow for economic development of the Baikal region.  The
planned development in the lake basin from 1971 to 2000 will amount to  over
10 billion rubles (13.6 billion dollars), with approximately 6% of this
amount spent on environmental protection.  During the next 30 years, a  4 to
5-fold increase in gross industrial production, 3-fold increase in agricul-
tural production, and 1.5-fold increase in timber production are antici-
pated.  In addition, the population is expected to increase by a factor of
1.5 during this same period.  Most of these increases will be centered  in
two regions:  1) the basin along the course of the Selenga River southwest
of the lake, and 2) along the Baikal-Amur railway under construction in the
area north of the lake.

    The importance of the Selenga River Region, and of the shallow zone
encircling it, can be related to the growth and development of the Selenga
whitefish young in this area.  After the larvae have hatched in April and
May, the whitefish remain in the delta for 35-45 days, and in the shallows
until mid-August.  Hence, until the end of June, the whitefish young are
influenced directly by chemical runoff, and during the subsequent period
are exposed to its influence in the diluted shallow waters.  If the level
of toxic pollutants in the water of the Selenga River from April to August
is detrimental to these fish, there is no doubt that it can have an even
stronger influence on the remaining trophic links in this region of the
lake.

    One objective of this U.S.A./U.S.S.R. joint modeling project is to
attempt to describe the circulation and transport characteristics of Lake
Baikal for the whole lake, and for the Selenga River Shallows area using

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                              WIND
                             WIND
                       (1) Prevailing southwesterly wind (30 Aug 1972).
                       (2) Prevailing northwesterly wind (31 Aug 1972).
                       (3) Steady lasting northwesterly wind (8 Sep 1972).
Figure 3.   Observed surface currents in the Selenga River Region
                             of Lake Baikal.
                                    10

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mathematical models.  Combined with the existing knowledge of transport and
circulation obtained from a qualitative description of experimental data, a
better understanding of cause and effect reTationships should be obtained.
This could eventually lead to the construction of more detailed biochemical
models for management purposes.  In addition, th-'s analysis may provide
experimentalists w:th new insights for data observation.
                                   11

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                                 SECTION 4

                                SAGINAW BAY
BACKGROUND OF SAGINAW BAY

    Saginaw Bay was formed about five thousand years ago  following  the  final
retreat of the Pleistocene Ice and recession of Lake Saginaw.  The  bay  re-
mains as a shallow arm of Lake Huron, having an average depth of 5  m, a
width of 42 km at its mouth, a minimum width of 21 km, and a length of  82 km
from Saginaw River to the mouth (Figure 4).

    Although small in size compared  to all of Lake Huron, the bay is an im-
portant water resource to the State  of Michigan and the Great Lakes Region
of the United States.  Its surface area of about 2960 km2, shoreline of 230
km, and volume of 300 million cubic  meters serves a variety of water uses.
Saginaw Bay is illustrative of a high water-use requirement from a  water
body of degraded quality that resulted from municipal and industrial inputs
and from runoff of agricultural and  urban land.

    Historically, Saginaw Bay has been one of the more productive commer-
cial fishing areas in the Great Lakes.  Even today, the bay has the highest
fish productivity of the entire Lake Huron ecosystem.  The fishing  industry
was established in the early 1800's  and reached a peak in 1902 with
6,432,000 kg production.  Since the  1930's, production and types of fishes
have been so severely altered that,  in 1966, the production reached an  ebb
of 1,160,000 kg.

    In addition to water supply, commercial fishing, and waste assimila-
tion, the bay provides for extensive recreational uses including boating,
fishing, and swimming.  Also, the bay is an important navigational  waterway
for commercial vessels with foreign  exports totaling over 7 million metric
tons.  This shipping, however, requires a navigation channel to be  dredged
through the inner bay and up the Saginaw River.  Over 380,000 cubic meters
of spoil are removed annually, some  of which are disposed of in the bay.

    The bay receives the waste discharges and runoff from a drainage basin
serving over 1.2 million people (1970).  Over 50% of the basin is farm
land, 34% forest, 3.5% urbanized, and 1.2% is recreational land.  Products
of the basin include sugar beets, beans, corn, wheat, dairy and livestock.
Industrial products include food, automobiles, chemicals, and lumber.
These activities contribute large amounts of waste materials to the bay as
reflected by the material loads measured at the tributary mouths.
                                      12

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            SAG IN AW BAY
        1974 Sampling Network
                                  o BOAT STATION
                                  A WATER INTAKE
                                  - MODEL SEGMENTS
     SAGINAW RIVER
Figure 4. Saginaw Bay, including 1974 sampling network.
                     13

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EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND METHODS

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Large Lakes Research  Station
CLLRS) at Grosse He, Michigan, has  sponsored surveys of water quality  in
the bay since 1974 ("Smith et al.  1977).   The surveys have been conducted
to:  1) establish a water quality baseline, 2^ provide  data  for modeling
biochemical processes and dynamics,  and  3)  provide a comprehensive  document
for the International Joint Commission  (IJC) Upper Lakes Reference  Study.

    Location of sampling stations are ^'ndicated  in Figure 4.  During
1974-75, 30 cruises  ''Table 2) were conducted by  the Cranbrook Institute of
Science in support of and in conjunction with several other  organizations.
Each survey was conducted over a  3-day  period by two vessels.  The
analytical methodology used for each water  qua1l'ty parameter is summarized
in Table 3.  Quality control procedures  were incorporated into the
laboratory program.  All data were processed and stored in the EPA  STORET
system, a water quality data base system.

    The data for 1974 to 1976 were analyzed for  the IJC Water Quality Board
using one way analysis of variance to determine  the existence of  discernible
trends.  The bay was divided into 5  segments of  unique  characteristics  and
the data grouped and averaged for each  segment.   In general, the  analysis
revealed increases in the inner bay, Segment 2,  for chlorophyll a_,  total
phosphorus, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (see Figure 5).  The data indicates
that enrichment of the bay has increased during  the period 1974-1976.
PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED

    The primary water  quality  problems  determined  in  Saginaw  Bay  are  en-
rn'chment and  the  resultant  problems  associated with overabundance  of  algae,
particularly  taste  and odor in municipal water supplies.   Historically,
total dissolved solids (chlorides)  from solution mining  in the basin  have
been a primary concern in the  bay.   In  the  1960's, chlorides  were  recorded
at over 100 mg/1  near  the Saginaw River.  Control  programs implemented  in
the 1970's have reduced present  values  to about 40 ing/I.   More recent water
quality problems  relate to  toxic substances  detected  in  fishes in  the bay.

    To adequately manage water quality  in this complex environment, LLRS
has undertaken a  research program to develop an understanding of  cause  and
effect relationships involved  with  these water quality problems.   Bierman
(1976) has developed a raultispecies  eutrophication model  for  the bay.
DiToro and Matystik (1976^  have  calibrated  a chlorophyll  £ phytoplankton
biomass model, Canale  and Squire (1976) have developed a  steady state phos-
phorus and chloride transport  model,  and Richardson (1974 and 1976) has
calibrated and verified a steady-state  chloride transport model and cali-
brated a time variable chloride  transport model.   All of  these models de-
pend heavily  on a quantification of  the net  circulation  in the bay over a
particular time scale.  The steady-state models use a time average of sever-
al weeks to a season,  whereas  the time  variable models require suitable
resolution oVer the entire  annual biological growth cycle.
                                      14

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TABLE 2.  SAGINAW BAY CRUISE SCHEDULE FOR 1974-75
Cruise/survey
Cruise 1
Sampling dates
11/5-7/73
Cruise 2 1 2/3-4/73
Cruise 3
2/18-21/74
Cruise 4 | 3/25/74
Cruise 5
Cruise 6
Cruise 7
Cruise 8
Cruise 9
Cruise 10
Cruise 11
Cruise 12
Cruise 13
Cruise 14
Cruise 15
Cruise 16
Cruise 17
Cruise 18
Cruise 19
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 20
Cruise 21
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 22
Cruise 23
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 24
Cruise 25
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 26
Cruise 27
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 28
4/16-20/74
No. stations
sampled
37
41
16
7
44
4/28-30/74 59
5/13-17/74 51
6/2-5/74
47
6/18-22/74 59
7/8-10/74 59
7/25-27/74 59
8/25-27/74 59
9/18-20/74 59
10/6-8/74 58
11/11-14/74 I 36
12/16-18/74 23
2/17-19/75
3/18/75
4/9-11/75

4/28-29/75
4/30-2/75
5/20-22/75

6/2-3/75
6/5-8/75
6/25-27/75

7/11-12/75
7/13-16/75
7/29-31/75

8/16-17/75
8/18-20/75
9/3-5/75

9/21/75
9/23/75
Cruise 29 j 10/9-11/75
Diurnal Survey
(Sta. 56)
Cruise 30
Cruise 31
Cruise 32

10/25-26/75
10/27-29/75
11/16-18/75
12/16/75

33
15
30

1
37
37

1
32
37

1
37
36

l
37
37

1
19
37

1
29
35
9

Satellite pass dates
10/31-11/1/73
12/5 & 6/73
2/15 & 16/74
3/23 & 24/74
4/10 & 11/74
4/28 & 29/74
5/1.6 & 17/74
6/3 & 4/74
6/21 & 22/74
7/9 & 10/74
7/27 & 28/74
9/1. & 2/74
9/19 & 20/74
10/7 & 8/74
11/12 & 13/74
12/18 & 19/74
2/20 & 21/75
3/27 & 28/75
4/1 & 2/75


5/1 & 2/75
5/19 & 20/75


6/6 & 7/75
6/24 & 25/75


7/12-13/75
7/30-31/75


8/17 & 18/75
9/4 & 5/75


9/22 & 23/75
10/10 & 11/75


10/28 & 29/75
11/15 & 16/75
12/21 & 22/75 :

                        15

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TABLE 3.   ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR SAGINAW BAY
           WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS
Parameters
Temperature
Oxygen, dissolved
Specific conductivity
Chloride, filtered
pH
Akalinity, total
Secchi disc depth
Chlorophyll at non-filterable
Carbon, filt. organic
Carbon, unfilt. organic
Solids, unfilt. total
Silicates, filt. reactive
Ammonia, filtered total
Nitrate + Nitrite, filt.
Nitrogen, unfilt. Kjeldahl
Phosphates, filt. reactive
Phosphorus, flit, total
Phosphorus, unfilt. total
Sodium, unfiltered
Potassium, unfiltered
Calcium, unfiltered
Magnesium, unfiltered
Where
measured
in on at
situ ship LLRS
X X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Max. time
to analysis
(in situ)
(in situ)
10 min.
48 hrs.
10 min.
10 min.
(in situ)
4 wks.
2 wks-sealed
7 mos-analyzed
2 wks-sealed
7 mos-analyzed
2 wks.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
48 hrs.
6 mos.
6 mos.
6 mos.
6 mos .
Methods
Submerged thermistor
probe; termometry
Submerged KC1 probe
Electric conductance measurement
Ferric
thiocyanate color reaction
Submerged combination pH probe
Sulfuric acid (0.02N)
titration to pH 4.5
Visual estimation
Extraction & spectrophotometry
(SCOR/UNESCO)
Sealed ampuole wet
oxidation & IR analysis
Sealed ampuole wet
oxidation & IR analysis
Gravimetric measurement
"Molybdenum blue" color reaction
Berthelot color reaction
Sulfanilimide (diazo) color reaction
Digestion & autoanalysis for ammonia
"Phospho-molybdenum blue"
color reaction
Digestion & autoanalysis for phosphate
Digestion & autoanalysls for phosphate
Flame Atomic Absorption
Spectrophotometry (undigested)
Flame Atomic Absorption
Spectrophotometry (undigested)
Flame Atomic Absorption
Spectrophotometry (undigested)
Flame Atomic Absorption
Spectrophotometry (undigested)
Equipment/
instrumentation
Martek Mark II Monitor
Martek Mark II Monitor
Beckman RC19 Conductivity Bridge
Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Martek Mark II Monitor
Fisher 520 pH/Ion Meter
Burette & Fisher 520 pH/Ion Meter
9 cm diam. B & W disc
P-E Coleman 124 Double
Beam Spectrophotometer
Oceanography International 052413
& MSA 300 IR analyzer
Oceanography International 052413
(, MSA 300 IR analyzer
Mettler H10 Balance
Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Heating Block
and Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Technicaon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Heating Block
and Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Heating Block
and Technicon AA2 Auto Analyzer
Instrumentation Laboratory 353
AA Spectrophotometry
Instrumentation Laboratory 353
AA Spectrophotometry
Instrumentation Laboratory 353
AA Spectrophotometry
Instrumentation Laboratory 353
AA Spectrophotometry

-------
    0.05
1 I 0.04


g z

co :- 0.03

g <
£ «
-J z 0.02
< uj

s §

H 8 o-01
         INCREASING TREND.
                                    SEGMENT 2
          74
               75


              YEAR
                     76
                                                                  10 KM


                                                                    J10MI
                                                         BOAT STATION



                                                         WATER INTAKE


                                                         MODEL SEGMENTS
O

O

oc
  z
  o
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
. INCREASING
•
•
•









TR


END






74. 75 76
YEAR
                                      If


                                      ll
                                      -J (-
                                      I <
                                      u a:
                                      o !r
                                      uj Z
                                      I- ^J
                                      u y
                                      ui Z
                                      a: o
                                      cc o
                                      O
                                      o
                                           20
18
                                           16
                                           14
                                           12
                                           10
                                               INCREASING TREND
                                                74.
                                                     75


                                                    YEAR
                                                           76
      Figure  5.  Inner Saginaw Bay, Segment 2,  water  quality

                           for 1974-1976.
                                   17

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    The problem to be addressed in this report is that of describing
chloride transport in Saginaw Bay as a method of quantifying circulation
patterns.
                                      18

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                                 SECTION 5

                                SEA OF AZOV
BACKGROUND OF SEA OF AZOV

    The Sea of Azov is a comparatively small body of water  located between
45° and 47° N latitude, and 35° and 39° E  longitude (Figure 6).   Its  area
is 38,000 km2, and the volume  is about 320 km3-  The Sea of Azov  is shallow.
Its maximum depth is approximately 13 meters, with an average depth of about
8 meters.

    The sea is an important source of fish protein and, thus, is  an
important resource to the Rostov Region of the U.S.S.R.  One hundred  and
four species of fish have been identified  in the bay, nine of which
comprise 90% of the fish biomass.  Also, 332 phytoplankton species, 155
zooplankton species, and 180 benthos species have been identified.

    Large quantities of materials from the Sea of Azov drainage basin and
hydrological modifications on  the major rivers have had considerable  impact
on water quality, and subsequent effects on biological processes.  The most
common pollution components are oxygen demanding materials (BOD), wastes
from petroleum production, phenolic compounds, detergents, pesticides, and
nutrients.  The content of heavy metal salts in the pelagic zone  of the sea
are at the level of the natural geochemical background.

    A much more serious impact may result, however, if a barrier  is con-
structed between the Black and Azov Seas, as has been proposed.   The pur-
pose of a barr?'er would be to reduce the salinity influx from the Black Sea.
However, this may have a deleterious impact on the Sea of Azov.   One purpose
of modeling the Sea of Azov is to predict the consequences of such potential
modifications.  However, before predictions can be made, it is necessary to
calibrate and verify models for existing conditions.  For this report, on]y
the hydrodynamic and transport components of the model formulation will be
considered, and only the hydrological and meteorological data will be dis-
cussed.  More details on the Sea of Azov are presented in Appendix B.
EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND METHODS

    One of the key processes in the Sea of Azov is the water exchange
between various parts of the sea and the associated redistribution of the
solutes, suspensions, and organisms.  The dynamics of the seawater are
                                     19

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to
o
                  35
          47
          30'
                                                                                      DEPTH:
                                                                                       	5m
                                                                                       	 10m
                   35° LONGITUDE    36°
37C
38C
                                                    47C
                                                    30'
                                                    46°
                                                                                                        30'
                                                                                                        45C
39C
                                        Figure 6.   Sea of Azov.

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essentially determined by the wind, and the horizontal water  exchange  is
determined by the wind-generated system of currents.  Typical of  the Sea  of
Azov is the short time lag of the process.  Because of the  shallowness  of
the sea and unstable wind conditions, the speed and direction of  currents
can change very rapidly.

    According to the data in the Hydrometeorological Handbook for  the Sea
of Azov (Anonymous 1972^, wind-generated currents of 2-10 cm/sec have the
highest frequency (up to 60%).  Currents with speed of 10-20 cm/sec,
corresponding to winds of 5-10 m/sec, have a frequency of about 30%.  The
maximum currents do not exceed 60-80 cm/sec.  Some observations of currents
during the summer of 1957 are shown in Figure 7.  Parameters relevant to
these currents are listed in Table 4.

    During the cold half of the year, easterly winds prevail.  Their
frequency during this period amounts to 45-50%, and the frequency of
westerly winds, about 30%.  The wind speed during the fall  and winter
periods reaches an average maximum of 6-7 m/sec.  Storms with easterly
winds of over 10-15 m/sec also occur at that time.

    In spring and summer, the wind patterns change.  The frequency of
westerly winds increases to 38-45% and that of easterly winds decreases to
25-30%.  Later (July - August), the wind speed drops to the annual minimum,
which amounts to a long-term average of 4.2 m/sec.  During  the course of  a
year, the frequency of northerly and southerly winds does not usually ex-
ceed 10%, and the frequency of calms is approximately 7%.

    In addition to wind, the following factors also contribute to the
dynamics of the sea:  runoff, atmospheric precipitation,  evaporation, and
water exchange with the Black Sea through the Kerch Straits.  Data on a
long-term average water balance are listed in Table 5.
              TABLE 5.  AVERAGE WATER BALANCE FOR SEA OF AZOV
                                 (km3/year)
           Gain
               Loss
       Inflow from river       41
       Precipitation           14
       Inflow from Black Sea   32
          Evaporation             36
          Outflow to Black Sea    51
       Total
87
Total
87
    The water exchange between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea is the most
variable component of the water balance.  During the period of observation,
the maximum annual outflow through the straits was 67.1 km3 (1932) and the
minimum was 38.8 km3 (1950).  The extremes of annual inflow from the Black
Sea were 38.1 km^ (1950) and 28.9 km3 (1932), while the extremes of net
water exchange were 38.1 km3 (1932) and 0.7 km3 (1950).

                                     21

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                    CASE 1
                                WIND (m/sec)
                       —-   [   CUR RENTS (cm/sec)
Figure  7a.  Observed currents in Sea of Azov
          during Summer of  1957.
                       22

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                CASE 2
                            WIND (m/sec)
                              CURRENTS (cm/sec)
Figure 7b.  Observed currents in Sea of Azov
          during Summer of 1957.
                   23

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                   CASES
                             WIND (m/sec)
                            CURRENTS (cm/sec)
Figure 7c.  Observed currents in Sea of Azov
          during Summer of 1957-
                   24

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                             TABLE 4.   PARAMETERS OF INFLOW/OUTFLOW FOR SEA OF AZOV
                                              DURING SUMMER OF 1957
ho
Parameters specific to
Case 1
Don river flow 530
(m3/sec)
Kuban river flow 500
(m3/sec)
Evaporation 2.4
(mm/day)
Precipitation 0
(mm/day)
current observations
Case 2 Case 3
600 570
520 450
2.0 2.8
0 0.4
Average parameters
(km3

Flow from Sea of
Azov to Black Sea
Flow from Black Sea
to Sea of Azov
Net flow out of
Sea of Azov

for the
/month)
June
2.9
2.0
.9

summer 1957
July August
1.4 1.4
4.6 3.2
-3.2 -1.8


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    A systematic study of the hydrometeorological  regime  of  the  Sea  of  Azov
began in 1922.  Up to that time, only  periodic measurements  had  been made.
In connection with projects  to  regulate  the  runoff of  the Don  and  Kuban
Rivers during 1949, a number of scientific and planning  institutes carried
out additional  studies that made it  possible to  prepare  forecasts  of
possible changes in the hydrological regime  of the sea.   Observations made
up to 1959 were classified and  correlated  in the Hydrometeorological
Handbook for  the Sea of Azov  (Anonymous  1972).   At the present time, the
Azov Scientific Research Fishery Institute,  the  chief  organization engaging
in comprehensive investigations of  the Azov  ecosystem, routinely conducts
four cruises  per year in April,  July,  August, and  October.
PROBLEMS  TO  BE  ADDRESSED

    A  considerable  portion  of the  catchment  basin of'the  Sea  of Azov  is
located  in a zone of  insufficient  precipitation.   For th-'s  reason,  the
river  runoff is very  limited,  amounting to an average of  41 km3 (Gorstko
1976).   The  bulk of the runoff is  due  to two rivers, the  Don  and the  Kuban
(27.9  and 13.9  km3  annual contribution, respectively).  The exceptional
variability  of  the  Don River  inflow with time (52 km3 in  1942 and 11.8 km3
in  1950)  causes large fluctuations in  the total  water reserves of the
basin.   The  river runoff of the Azov Basin is used for the  needs of indus-
try, agriculture, power engineering, water transport, municipal water sup-
ply and  fisheries.  The Sea of Azov is the closing link in  the utilization
of  the water.   It follows  from genera1 ecological considerations that the
effects  of anthropogenic action in the basin should accumulate in the
ecosystem of the Sea  of Azov.   This is indeed the case (Gorstko and Surkov
1975*).

    The  principal problem areas for the Sea  of Azov created by man are the
following:

    1.   Irreversible  removal  of a  considerable part of the  runoff
    2.   Seasonal, leveling out of river drainage
    3.   Reduction  in  the breeding  areas of migratory and  semimigratory
         fishes  resulting  from the  difficulty of  access to spawning grounds
    4.   Change  in biogem'c  and mineral runoff

    The  state of natural equilibrium of the  Sea  of Azov ecosystem has
already  been disturbed by man's activities and is now in  an intermediate
state.   The  direction of  future anthropogenic activity within the Sea of
Azov basin is an unresolved issue.  Several  a^ernative approaches are
possible. A mode ""ing framework for the entire ecosystem  is underway  at the
Institute of Mechanics and  Applied Mathematics,  University  of Rostov. It
is  anticipated  that the mode1ing efforts will influence management deci-
sions  that will be  made  for the basin.

    One  objective of  this U. S.A. ./U. S.S.R. joint  modeling  project is to
describe the hydrodynamic and material transport characteristics of the
sea.   It is  hoped that this work will  provide a  basis to  be used  in
assessing the alternative  approaches for future  activity  within the basin.

                                      26

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                                 SECTION 6

                            MATHEMATICAL MODELS
HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

    This effort is composed of two components:   the basic hydrodynamic
calculation and the transport of dissolved and/or suspended material.   Each
component will be discussed separately.

Summary of Hydrodynamic Component

    The equations for the hydrodynamic component are derived  from  the
time-dependent, three-dimensional equations for conservation  of mass,
momentum, energy, and salinity.  The principal assumptions used are:

    (a)  The pressure is assumed to vary hydrostatically .
    (b)  The rigid-lid approximation is made, i.e., the
         vertical velocity at the undisturbed water surface
         is assumed to be a constant value.  The assumed con-
         stant value is usually zero.  This approximation is
         used to eliminate surface gravity waves and their
         associated small time scales, greatly increasing the
         maximum allowable time step in the numerical computations.
         For applications where evaporation and/or precipitation
         are important, an appropriate non-zero value is used.
    (c)  Eddy coefficients are used to account for the turbulent
         diffusion effects.  The horizontal coef f f icients are
         assumed to be constant,  but the vertical coefficients
         are assumed to be some function of the local dependent
         variables.

The resulting equations are:
  9u   3u2   3uv   3uw         __ 1 3P   _3
  3t   3x     3y    3y    o      p  3x   3x
        3/A3u-./A   u..
          (AH 3° + fe (AV fc
                                     27

-------
                                 __     9v
                    9z
                       = _            _
  3t   8x    37    9z    9z ^DH  9x;   9y
          (Bv
  as + au§ + 2z§ + 32§ = _a     a§    _a    •
  at   8x    9y    9z    9z   H 3x'   9y   H  9y
     * il (Bv   >•                               -

  i g - 8,                                                        (6)
  P dz

  p = f(T,S),                                                      (7)
where
 x,y    = horizontal coordinates,
 z      = vertical coordinate,
 u,v    = fluid velocities in x and y directions,
 w      = fluid velocity in z-direction,
 t      = time,
 p      = pressure,
 T      = temperature,
 S      = salinity,
 p      = density,
 fQ     = Coriolis parameter,
 AJJ     = horizontal eddy viscosity,
 Ay     = vertical eddy viscosity,
 p      = density at reference conditions,
 BJJ     = horizontal eddy conductivity,
 By     = vertical eddy conductivity,
 Bu     = horizontal eddy diffusivity for salinity,
 By     = vertical eddy diffusivity for salinity,
 g      = gravitational acceleration, and
 f(T,S) = equation-of-state.
                                  28

-------
    Before the above equations are put  into appropriate  finite-difference
form, they are transformed by a stretching of the vertical coordinate.
With such a transformation, the same number of vertical  grid  points  can  be
present in the shallow as in the deeper parts of the water body.   This en-
sures that in the shallow areas there is no loss of accuracy  in  the  computa-
tions due to lack of vertical resolution.  The transformation is:
             0-<-> z/h(x,y) .

    The boundary conditions used with the equations are the  following:   the
bottom and sho^e are taken as no-slip, impermeable, no-flux  surfaces;  in-
flows or outflows along with appropriate fluxes of heat and  salinity are
specified at rivers; at the water surface, a wind-dependent  stress, a
specified heat flux, and a zero flux for sa1in;ty are specified.  The  ini-
tial conditions used are either some simple specification  for the variables
(e.g., zero^ or specification of all variables from some previous calcula-
t i on .

    The equations are put into finite-difference form in both space and
time.  The spatial discretizing is accomplished by integration of the  dif-
ferential equations about appropriate grn'd cells.  The equations are ex-
plicit in time, except with respect to the Coriolis terms  and the vertical
diffusion terms x^hich are written implicitly.  This is done  to eliminate the
small vertical diffusion t''me step restriction and the instability asso-
ciated with explicit form of the CorioHs terms.

    The equations as written can not be solved directly if the rigid-lM
condition is to be satisfied.  To develop a solution scheme, an additional
equation is derived directly from the other equations and  the rigid-lid con-
dition.  Th^'s equation is derived by vertically summing the  two difference
equations for the horizontal velocities, then taking the difference analog
of the divergence.  The rigid-lid condition is used along  with the verti-
cally summed continuity and hydrostatic pressure equations.  The result is
a Poisson-type difference equation in the surface pressure.  The surface
pressure is the "integration constant" resulting from the  vertical summa-
tion of the hydrostatic pressure equation.  The surface pressure is a  func-
tion of the horizontal coordinates.  This procedure for deriving the
Poisson-type equation for the surface pressure, a modification of the  SMAC
procedure by Amsden and Harlow (1970), is different than previous models
which first derived the pressure equation from the differential equation,
then discretized it (Paul and Lick 1974, Paul 1976).  The  distinction be-
tween these two procedures is that with the use of the latter, the finite-
difference equation that results for the pressure will not necessarily be
directly deriveable from the finite-difference forms of the horizontal
momentum equations.  This is strictly a numerical error associated with
approximating the differential equations; however, ttv's error reflects in
the inability of the numerical solution to satisfy the rigid-lid condition
to an acceptable degree.  Even if direct methods are used  to solve the
finite-difference pressure equation or if an iterative procedure is used
                                     29

-------
with stringent convergence criteria,  errors  are man;fested  in the  vertical
velocity at  the  r-'gld  lid.   These  errors  are not  always  small,  especially in
problems where there  is  significant  differences  in  depths between  the  shal-
low and deep areas  of  the water body.   These errors might not appear  to  be
of much significance  in  some calculations, but  they do create appreciable
errors when  the  resultant velocities  are  used to  calculate  dispersion  of
substances in the body of wate^.   A1 so,  i-f advantage is  taken of the  time
implicit nature  of  the vertical diffusion terms  'i.e., t^'me steps  are  large
with respect to  the explicit vei-tica"!  diffusion  time limit"1,  these errors
become large and ultimately  make  the  solutions  meaningless.  Complete  de-
tails of this numerical  procedure  appear  ;n  the  report by Paul  and L;ck
'1978^.

Summary of Dispersion Component

    The transport  and dispersion  of  material in  the turbulent flow will  be
described in a manner similar to  that used for  the  transport  and turbulent
dispersion of heat  and momentum.   Refer to Sheng ^1975^  for a summary  of
this procedure.  The  concentrations  of the mater1'a1 to be dispersed are
treated as continuous on the length  sca^s considered.   The concentrations
are sufficiently small so  that they  do not significantly alter the density
of  the water (the  momentum equations can  be  solved  independently), and they
function as  complete1y conservative  substances  in the water column convected
w'th the  loca1  fluid  velocities.   The on1;/ exception to  the "latter condition
will be when gravitational  settling  is important  for the material  con-
sidered.  In this  situation, the  vert^ca1  convection of  the materia1  is  en-
hanced by a  settling  velocity. The  bas^c equation  used  to  predict the dis-
persion of the material  is:

                9(Cv)
                 9y

     + _9  f-n  ^")  + -2 Cn   ££}                                     (8)
       r\   ^ J^TT  «\  '    r\  ^ U1J r. ' J                                     V U '
       8y    H  3y    9z   V 9z

where
    C   = concentration  of material  per unit volume,
    x,y = horizontal  coordinates,
    z   = vertical coordinate,

    t   = time,
    u,v = particle (or fluid) velocities  in  the x and y  d-frections,
    w   = particle velocity (the  sum of the  fluid velocity  and the
           settling velocity, wg,  of the substance relative  to the  fluid)

           in the z direction,

    Drr  = horizontal  eddy  diffusivity, and
    D   = vertical eddy  diffusivity.
                                      30

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    The boundary conditions used are  that  all  surfaces have  zero  net  flux
of the material through them except at rivers.   In  this  latter  situation,
the net flux is either into or out of the  water,  depending on  the flow  of
the river.  The magnitude of the flux depends  on  the  local concentration  of
the material.  The same transformation of  the  vertical coordinate that  is
used for the hydrodynamic component is used here.   The finite-difference
analysis of the equation is similar to that used  for  the hydrodynamic
component.  Paul and Patterson (1977) have used  this  basic dispersion
component to calculate the transport  of larval fishes in the western basin
of Lake Erie.
TRANSPORT MODELS

Type 1 Transport Model

    In this section, a model of water exchange between different regions of
a water body will be presented.  It is important because water exchange
determines, to a considerable degree, the changes in the concentration of
solutes, phytoplankton, zooplankton, etc., in the water mass.  These
changes are very substantial for the ecosystem as a whole.

    A universal means of solving such problems involves the use of
hydrodynamic equations for calculating the currents in a body of water, and
the subsequent calculation of the dynamics of concentrations of the
material, by means of a turbulent diffusion equation, on the basis of the
flow pattern obtained.  This turbulent diffusion equation is:

          3- = - div (C • u) + div (E, grad C) + y                      (9)

where
    C  =  concentration of the material,
    t  =  t ime,
    u  =  velocity vector,
    E  =  turbulent diffusivity, and
    y  =  source or sink term.

In practical calculations, the differential relations are replaced by their
finite-difference analogs.  The computations (usually done with a computer)
are performed for discrete instants of time on a discrete grid which
approximates the body of water.

    Let us now consider a description of the calculations for the concen-
tration dynamics of the material.  Let the body of water be divided into n
regions, each of which is assumed to be homogeneous in concentration.  The
following notation is introduced:
                                    31

-------
 C..     -  concentrations of material at time t  In region  i.

 V,j     -  volume of region i at time t,

 Yic   -  external loading of material into region  i between  times  t
          and t+1,

 Q..  .   -  volume of flow from region i to region j  at  time  t, and

 K.     -  first order decay coefficient of the  material.

    The equation for the concentration dynamics of  the substance is:


C.t+1 =  [C.'fV.* - ZQf^ + SQ^* C.' + y.* - K V.fc C.'l./V t*1, i-l,2,...,n  (10)
                   .1        j             "
The terms on the right hand side of Equation '10") have the  following

meanings:

 C.  V.     - amount of material in region i at time t,

C . *• EQ - . fc   - amount of material transported out of region  i  to all
 1  j  J
              neighboring regions,

ZQj^  x.    - amount of material transported into region  i  from all

              neighboring regions,

y.          - external  loading  into region i,

K.:  V.*"  C^   - chemical  decomposition in region  i.


    In conformity with  the  two  terms on the right hand side of the  turbu-
lent diffusion equation  (9), the quantities Q^. are assumed to consist  of
two terms :
The first  term corresponds  to  the  transport  between regions  i  and  j  due  to
the mean currents,  and  the  second  term describes  the mixing  due  to  fluctu-
ating disturbances  relative to the mean currents.

    The equation of concentration  dynamics  (10) makes  it  possible  to compute
the concentrations  xt+l only if values for  all  the  variables on  the  right
hand side  of the equation a*"e  known.   The values  of concentration  x1- for
the previous time step  are  assumed to  have been computed  or  specified as
initial conditions.   The values yt of  loadings of the  material, have  to be
specified.  The decay constants, K.^, of the  material may  be  different for
separate regions of the body of water  because of  possible differences in
physicochemical conditions  of  the  region, and must  also be specified. The

                                     32

-------
remaining values of the volumes, V^  , V^    , of  each  of  the  regions  and
flows, Q-JJ , depend on the hydrological regime.  They may be either  speci-
fied or computed separately.

    Thus, equation (10) can be used  for different purposes.   If  the  condi-
tions in the body of water are sufficiently stable, one  can  calculate  the
steady state of the concentrations by equating quantities at times t and
t+1.  This results in:


    C. = C. (1 - ~ Z Q..) + J-  E Q.. C. + y. -  K. C.,
     11      V. .  11    V.  .  ji  J    i    11
                  i J         i  J
                                                      i  = l,2,...,n     (11)

    Simple rearrangement results in  the equation

                               AC =  y,

where A is a square matrix of order  n with coefficients
         A. . =
                        K. +  -  Z Q. .,  for   i = j
                         i   V.  . xii'            J
                        - ~-   Q..,     for   i i  i
                          V.  . V


and C and y are column vectors with components C .  and y ., respectively.

    The steady state results are obtained as the solution of the linear
system

                            C = A"1 y.

Hence, if the values of flow, Q-H, between the regions are specified or esti-
mated in some manner, and if the concentrations of the material may be con-
sidered to be in a steady state, then from a given loading y, one can compute
the concentration distribution.

    The second method of using Equation (11) consists of computing the tran-
sient concentrations C.  The transient values of volumes, V £*-, and flows be-
tween regions, Q-j^ , can be computed with a suitable hydrological model.  For
a shallow body of water characterized by wind-driven flow, this can be done
by means of a model analogous to the one used for  simulating the hydrologic
regime of the Sea of Azov.

    In this model, a time step of 5 days was chosen.  It was assumed that for
a 5-day average wind velocity vector there exists a corresponding slope of
the water surface, which to a first approximation was assumed to be an ideal
plane.  These assumptions were based on data from natural observations and
level fluctuations of the Sea of Azov.
                                      33

-------
    The sequence of the calculations  in  the model  is  as  follows:   first,  the
average surface elevations of each of the  regions  are calculated  from the
average wind velocity vector.  From the  surface  elevation  of the  region,  the
volume V-^t+l is calculated.  Comparison  of V±l and Vi1-"1"-*- indicates  that  an in-
crease (or decrease) of water is  required  by  region i.   From the  arrangement
of the regions, one determines from which  adjacent region  this  water is  trans-
ported.  Also considered  are inflows  of  water with river runoffs,  and the
balance of evaporation and precipation at  the sea  surface.

Type 2 Transport Model

    An economical  approach  to quantifying  circulation in segmented  water
bodies has been developed by Thomann  (1972).  This approach utilizes one of
the basic conservation principles, mass  balance,  to trace  a material through
segmented systems.  Any material  for  which the reactions are known  may be used
as the tracer.  For Lake  Ontario  and  Lake  Huron,  Thomann,  et al.,  (1975), and
DiToro and Matystik (1976) have used  temperature as a transport tracer.   For
Saginaw Bay, chloride  is  an appropriate  tracer because of  the large source in
the Saginaw River  and  the relatively  sharp gradients  in the bay.

    Richardson  ( 1974 and  1976) has calibrated and  verified a quasi-steady-
state  chloride  transport  model  for Saginaw Bay.   The  approach used  is de-
picted in Figure 8.  Given  a chloride river  loading and chloride  concentra-
tions  in the bay,  the  circulation parameters  become the unknowns.   These para-
meters are determined  through an  iterative process using a computer solution
of the mass balance  formulations  given below:

     dck
  V,  T-^ = 0 =  Z  [-Q, .   (a, .c.  +  6, .c.)  +  E,1  . (c.  - c. )] - V.K, c.  + W. ,
   k dt         .  l xkj    kj k    kj  ]     kj   j     k      k k k    k'
where
                                                    o
         c^    = concentration  per unit  volume  (M/L ),
                                        _   3
=  bulk dispersion coefficient = EkjAkj/Lj(L /T) ,
          KV   =  decay coefficient (1/T),

          E^   =  dispersion coefficient (L
                                        o
          V,    =  volume of segment k (LJ),
           K
          E^..   =  bulk dispersion coefficie

          L-;   =  average length of adjacent sections (L) ,
                                                                  f\
          A]H   =  cross-sectional area between segments k  and j (L ),

          a, .   =  dimensionless coefficient to account for unequal
                  segment dimensions,

          6«   =  l~\i'                          3
          Q .   =  advcective transport parameter (L /T) ,  and
           kj
          W    =  source of c in mass units per time (M/T) .
           k
                                      34

-------
         MODEL CALIBRATION PROCESS
                             NFLUENCE FROM
                               LAKE HURON
SEGMENTATION
Depth   D
Area    A
Volume  V
Length  L
                     Wt
                            BAY CIRCULATION
                            Advection    Q
                            Dispersion    E

                            BAY CHLORIDE CONCEN-
                             TRATIONS CM
CHLORIDE LOADINGS Wk
     INPUT
                       V
D
               COMPUTE CHLORIDE
                 CONCENTRATION
                     RESET
   Figure 8.  Type 2 transport model calibration process
                   for Saginaw Bay.
                         35

-------
The units are:

    L  =  length,
    T  =  time, and
    M  =  mass.
    The parameters a   and  B, .  are  determined  by:
                    KJ       fcj
                  L.
          OL  =     J
          \j   L.  + L '
             J     J     K

where positive solutions  to  the  equations  are  guaranteed  by  the  criterion
          0. .  >1  -
            kj        kj

    Initial estimates  of  the  transport  parameters  for  dispersion,  E,  and  ad-
vection, Q,  are made,  and concentration of  chloride  is computed.   The computed
concentrations are compared to  the measured average  concentrations in each  seg-
ment.  The  process of  selecting new values  of  E  and  Q, directed by the magni-
tude and direction of  the previous error,  is repeated  until  the computed  con-
centrations are approximately equal to  that measured.

Comparison  of Transport Models

    The two transport  models  are similar in that they  try  to  predict  water  move-
ments with  basic conservation equations.  They differ  by which conservation
equation is used.

    The type 1 model (Gorstko and Surkov) calculates the changes  in water move-
ment with time by using surface elevation changes.   For the  application to  the
Sea of Azov, the water surface  slope  is  related  to a time-averaged wind.  By
neglecting  diffusion,  a unique  set of water transports from  one time  step to
the next is calculated.   A difficulty with  this  model  is that a non-zero
steady-state solution  for water transport cannot be  calculated because it only
calculates  transports  resulting from  the changes in  surface  elevation.

    The type 2 model (Richardson) calculates water movement  and diffusive trans-
port through an iterative process of  comparing computed and  observed  material
concentration values.  A  set  of time-dependent transports  is  developed with this
model that  gives reasonable agreement with  observed  data,  i.e., the transports
are adjusted until the agreement is satisfactory.  Since water movement and dif-
fusion are  both solved for, a unique  solution  is not obtainable because the
equations are underdetermined.   This  model  does  require a  reasonable  data base
of observed concentrations if the time-dependent transports  are to be charac-
terized with some degree  of resolution.  The iterative procedure has  not  been
automated so it does require  extensive  user interaction.

    The choice of  transport model which  is  better  for  a particular application
depends on  the data available and the physical characteristics of  the water
body.
                                        36

-------
                                 SECTION 7

                                  RESULTS


LAKE BAIKAL

Hydrodynamic and Dispersion Calculations

    The parameters used for the application of the hydrodynamic model  to
Lake Baikal are listed in Table 6.  The vertical diffusion  is dependent on
the local depth, resulting in larger mixing in the deeper sections of  the
lake.  Figure 9 indicates the horizonta1 gri-d scheme used for the discreti-
zation process.  Constant-density calculations were performed for the  four
main wind directions on the lake; these are listed as Cases  1 through  4 in
Table 6.  These main wind directions are the same as indicated in the
Baikal Atlas (Anonymous 1969).  Figure 10, taken from the Baikal Atlas, in-
dicates the relative frequency of the four wind directions  during the  summer
and autumn periods.  The water current data with which the  calculations are
compared is only of a general nature since lakewide currents for specific
episodes in time were not obtainable during the course of this study.
Since an insufficient amount of data was available on the thermal regime
for the entire lake, the calculations were performed assuming this aspect
to be negligible.  The wind direction for Case 1, from the  southwest,  was
also used in a calculation with the northern basin of the lake ice covered.
This type of calculation is of interest to assess the significance of  the
ice cover on the central and southern basins.  The northern basin is
generally ice covered through the middle of May, and occasionally until the
beginning of June (Anonymous 1969).

    Detailed results of the hydrodynamic calculations are presented in
Appendix C.  All of the calculations were performed for  12  days of real
time, after which essentially steady-state conditions were  obtained.   Fi-
gures 11 and 1.2 show the surface velocities and vertically  integrated
velocities for the southwest wind (Case 1) arid the northwest wind (Case 3).
For all of the calculations, the results are typical of what might be  ex-
pected from the simple theory of motion which balances Coriolis force,
vertical friction, and horizontal pressure gradients.  The  deep areas  of
the lake are generally characterized by geostrophic motion, while the
shallower areas are markedly influenced by vertical friction.  The magni-
tude and directions of the surface currents indicate the different balances
in the motion as one goes from shallow to deep waters.  The general circula-
tion of the lake is composed of the basic circulation in the three basins.
Because the northern and southern basins are relatively  flat in their  long
dimension compared with the central basin, the magnitude of  the vertically
integrated velocities for the southwest wind are smaller in  these basins

                                     37

-------
ANGARA
 RIVER
                             A/
                                     SCALE:
                                 0     100    200
                                   KILOMETERS
CO
SELENGA
  RIVER
                                                   UPPER
                                                  •ANGARA
                                                   RIVER
                                    BARGUZIN
                                      RIVER
                Figure 9.  Hydrodynamic model grid for Lake Baikal calculation.

-------
      TABLE 6.  PARAMETERS FOR LAKE BAIKAL HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL
Grid spacings


Horizontal extents


Number of grid points



Minimum depth

Maximum depth

Coriolis parameter (53°N)

Horizontal eddy viscosity

Vertical eddy viscosity

Surface wind stress

Wind directions:

     Case 1
     Case 2
     Case 3
     Case 4

River flows:

     Selenga
     Barguzin
     Upper Angara
     Angara

Horizontal eddy diffusivity

Vertical eddy diffusivity

Particle settling velocity

where:

     h   =  local depth
     ho  =  reference depth
15 km   y-direction
7.8 km  x-direction

600 km  y-direction
150 km  x-direction

41      y-direction
21      x-direction
 8      z-direction

10 m

1620 m

1.16xlO~4/sec

10  cm /sec

3.85 (1 + 258.7 £-)cm2/sec
                ho
1 dyne/cm
Southwest
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
9.64x108 cm3/sec
4.10xl08 cm3/sec
5.78xl08 cm3/sec
19.52xl03 cm3/sec

106 cm2/sec

.385 (1 + 258.7 £-)  cm3/sec
                ho
10 m/day
                                 39

-------
FREQUENCY OF FALL WINDS (PERCENT):

      FROM LEFTSIDE INW)     FROM RIGHT    UP LAKE (SW)   DOWN LAKE (IMEI   FREQUENCY
                           SIDE (SEI                                OF CALM
FREQUENCY OF SUMMER WINDS /PERCENT!:

       FROM LEFTSIDE (NW)     FROM RIGHT    UP LAKE (SW)   DOWN LAKE (NE)   FREQUENCY
                           SIDE (SE;                                OF CALM
       Figure 10.   Frequency  of winds over Lake Baikal
                     in  the  summer and  autumn.
                                     40

-------
           N
                           0
                                   SCALE:
    100       200  15 CM/SEC
KILOMETERS
           WIND
                        H^-:T
SURFACE VELOCITIES
     Figure lla.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal
                   with southwest wind.

-------
          N
           WIND
                                 SCALE:
                                   100       200
                                KILOMETERS
                  0
h* '-i/ •  fsH*i
£-.
                       .~*~*'*\ \*- »; -_J   I

                     ^1-K^-,- :"P


VERTICALLY INTEGRATED VELOCITIES
                             	 **^\'%*-f*
                             —3 f ^ t   ••:»»
                             rr- ^ >;.,»:*,
    Figure lib.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal
                  with southwest wind.

-------
           N
               WIND
                                  SCALE:
0        100       200  15 CM/SEC
     KILOMETERS
SURFACE VELOCITIES
       Figure 12a.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal
                       with northwest wind.

-------
           N
                 V
               WIND
0
  SCALE:

	1	1
    100       200
KILOMETERS
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED VELOCITIES
      Figure 12b.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal
                     with northwest wind.

-------
compared to the central basin.  Th's is in agreement with  the  steady-state
solutions obtained for simple basins by Gedney  (1971"*.  He  solved  the  equa-
tions which balance Cor^olis force, pressure gradients, and vert:ca1  fric-
tion.  For constant depth basins, the steady-state vertically  integrated
velocities are everywhere equal to zero, while  for parabolic shaped basins,
the vertically integrated velocities form two rotating gyres,  with the
magnitudes dependent on the degree of the bottom slopes.   Thus, the gyres
in the calculations for the vertically integrated veloc't'es are functions
of the local topography.  Differences are apparent for the different wind
direction calculations, but this is because the basins are e1ongated and
the topography is highly variable.

    The surface velocities and vertically integrated ve1ocities for a  south-
west wind with the northern bas'-'n covered with  ice are shown in Figure  ""3.
It can be seen that the currents in the central and southern basins are re-
latively unaffected by the ice cover.  The currents in the northern bas?'n
are almost non-existent, because the lake currents are mainly  wind-driven.
The minimal current that does exist i-n this basin is primarily due to  the
inflow of the Upper Angara River.

    Data on surface currents in the Selenga region were presented earlier
in Figure 3.  Three cases were shown:  prevailing southwesterly winds,
prevailing northwester1y winds, and steady lasting northwester1y winds.
The first two are separated by only a day, and  it is apparent  that the
currents on the second day show the effects of  the previous day's winds.
This can be seen by comparing the second and thn'rd plot.  The  currents  in
the third plot compare quite well with the surface current calculation  for
the northwesterly wind (Figure T2).  The f^rst plot compares reasonable
we11 with the calculation for the southwestern w'nd ''Figure 11), but  dis-
crepancies do exist, apparently a function of the transitory behavior of
the currents.  The second plot appears to be some combination  of the two
calculations, as would be expected.

    The on1y data for lake-wide currents is a plot which appears in the
Baikal Atlas (Figure 14).  This is depicted as representative  of the typi-
cal currents that exist in the lake.  With reference to the wind frequency
plot for the lake (Figure 10\ it can be seen that for the most part, the
winds from the southwest are the most typical.  A comparison of the data
plot (Figure 14) with the vertical!y integrated velocities calcinated  for a
southwest wind (Figure 11) indicates a very good agreement.  The observed
gyres are replicated quite well in the calculation.  The data  plot does not
indicate magnitudes of the currents so no comparisons can be made on this
aspect.

    Using the steady-state currents that were calculated, the  transport and
dispersion of material in the lake were calculated.  A series  of 8 calcula-
tions were performed:  for each of the four main wind directions, for
material which is neutrally buoyant and for material which has a gravita-
tional settling velocity of 10 meters per day.  Th'-'s settling  velocity
corresponds with the mean Stokes settling velocity for the predominant
particle sizes observed in the suspended material in the Selenga River
runoff (see Appendix B).  The two calculations  for each current pattern in-

                                     45

-------
                         N
                    SCALE:
                       +
                                          0
                      100
                  KILOMETERS
200  15 CM/SEC
ON
                         WIND
r"n	;> i—LJ
»  * .  • •  •  • »->
-------
              N
       SCALE:
\	1	
0        100
     KILOMETERS
                                                   200
              WIND
                          T-n-S'a*
                                                         CO \/E/?
   VERTICALLY INTEGRATED VELOCITIES
Figure 13b. Hydrodynamic model calculation for Lake Baikal with southwest wind
                   and northern basin ice covered.

-------
                                        NIZHNEANGARSK
SLYUDYANKA
                                                       UST' BARGUZIN
          Figure 14.  Lake Baikal whole  lake dominant currents.
                                  48

-------
dicate the difference  in distributions  that can be  achieved  when one  con-
siders dissolved material  (neutrally buoyant)  and suspended  material  (posi-
tive settling velocity).   The parameters used  for the  calculations  are
listed in Table 6.  The calculations were performed  for  28 days  of  real  time
for each circumstance.  Material was entered continuously during the  cal-
culation through the Selenga, Barguzin  and Upper Angara  Rivers.   The  mate-
rial concentration in  each river was set equal to 1.0.   Since  the transport
equations are linear in the material concentration,  the  actual concentra-
tion level is not important in the calculation.  The results for all  the
calculations are presented in Appendix  C.  Figure 15 indicates surface and
bottom concentrations  with a southwest  wind for both neutrally buoyant and
suspended material.  The effect of the  settling velocity on  the  concentra-
tion distributions is  important.  The main reason for  this is  that  the cur-
rents over the water column are, in general, going  in  different  directions.
If the material remains essentially uniform over the water column (i.e.,  for
the neutrally buoyant  material), then the material  is  primarily  transported
by the currents over the upper portion  of the water  column.  These  are the
currents which have the larger magnitude.  When gravitational  settling is
introduced, the material tends to concentrate near  the bottom, and  thus,  is
transported horizontally by the currents that are near the bottom.  Since
these currents are in  generally in a different direction than  the near sur-
face currents, the concentration distribution appears  different.

    The data that is available for comparison with  the calculations are
shown in Figure 16.  These data are taken from the Hydromet cruise  in the
Selenga River Region of the lake on May 28-29, 1976  (refer to Appendix D
for the data that was  available for this study).  The  plots are  for P0^~^
(a dissolved substance) and total suspended solids.  The winds over the
region were highly variable during the  cruise, ranging from  southwest to
southeast during the first part of the  cruise, and  to  northeast  during the
final part of the cruise.  A reasonable comparison can be made with the
calculations for the southwest wind (Figure 15).  The  currents in the
vicinity of the Selenga delta are easterly near the  surface and  over most
of the vertical column near the river area of the lake.  As one  goes away
from the river area, the subsurface currents are generally southwesterly.
The suspended solids settle out as they enter the lake and are transported
by the near-bottom currents.  The dissolved material remains nearly uniform
vertically, and is transported out into the lake by  the subsurface
currents.  The data generally agree with the calculated distributions.

    Additional data available for the Selenga region are the Landsat  satel-
lite images shown in Figure 17-  These  images record observations of June
21, 1975, and July 9,  1975.  Unfortunately, no wind  information  was avail-
able for these dates.  The images do indicate the same sort of suspended
solids pattern as was  observed during the May 28-29, 1976, Hydromet cruise
(Figure 16).

Type 1 Transport Calculation

    The steady-state transport model developed by Gorstko and Surkov  (type
1) was applied to a 14 segment model of Lake Baikal.   The segmentation
                                     49

-------
Ul
o
                                                    SCALE:
                      CONCENTRATION
                       (PER VOLUME)

                          A 1.0000
                          B 0.1000
                          C 0.0100
                          D 0.0010
                          E 0.0001
                                           0
    100
KILOMETERS
       SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS (NO SETTLING VELOCITY)
200
             Figure 15a.  Dispersion model calculation for Lake Baikal with southwest wind.

-------
                                              SCALE:
                CONCENTRATION
                 (PER VOLUME)

                    A 1.0000
                    B 0.1000
                    C 0.0100
                    D 0.0010
                    E 0.0001
                                     0
    100
KILOMETERS
BOTTOM CONCENTRA TIONS (NO SETTLING VELOCITY)
200
      Figure 15b.  Dispersion model calculation for Lake Baikal with southwest wind.

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                                              SCALE:
                CONCENTRATION
                 (PER VOLUME)

                    A 1.0000
                    B 0.1000
                    C 0.0100
                    D 0.0010
                    E 0.0001
                                     0
    100
KILOMETERS
200
SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS (SETTLING VELOCITY, 10m/day)
      Figure 15c.  Dispersion model calculation for Lake Baikal with southwest wind.

-------
Ln
U)
                                                    SCALE:
                     CONCENTRATION
                      (PER VOLUME)

                         A 1.0000
                         B 0.1000
                         C 0.0100
                         D 0.0010
                         E 0.0001
0
    100
KILOMETERS
200
     BOTTOM CONCENTRATIONS (SETTLING VELOCITY, Wm/day)
            Figure 15d. Dispersion model calculation for Lake Baikal with southwest wind.

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Ol
             NEAR SURFACE CONTOURS OF
             P0~3, mg/l

             IMPLIED FLOW OF MATERIAL
        Figure 16a.  Sample results from Hydromet cruise in Selenga Shallows
on 28-29 May 1976.

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    NEAR SURFACE CONTOURS OF
      SUSPENDED SOLIDS, mg/l
    IMPLIED FLOW OF MATERIAL
Figure 16b.  Sample results from Hydromet cruise in Selenga Shallows on 28-29 May 1976,

-------
Figure 17a.  Landsat satellite images of Lake Baikal
                            •

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Figure 17b.   Landsat satellite images of  Lake  Baikal.


-------
scheme is indicated in Figure 18, and the segment characteristics  are  indi-
cated in Table 7-  The water exchanges between  segments  that were  determined
for typical winds over the lake are  indicated in Figure  18.  These water
exchanges agree with the general lakewide circulation observed  in  the  lake,
shown in Figure 14 (Anonymous 1969).
SAGINAW BAY

Type 1 Transport Calculation

    The type  1  steady-state model  developed by  Gorstko  and  Surkov  (1975)
was applied to  a 16-segment model  for  Saginaw Bay.   The segmentation  scheme
was identical to that used by Richardson  (1976^,  and was applied to  the
1965 data  for chloride  concentrations  in  the  bay.   The  calculated  and ob-
served concentrations are shown  in Figure 19  along  with the water  exchanges
between segments that were determined.  The calculated  chloride concentra-
tions agree with the observations,  and the calculated water exchanges are
similar to that determined by Richardson  (1976),  who applied the type 2
transport  model under the same conditions.  Refer to the next section for
his analysis  and results.

Type 2 Transport Calculation

    Through an  iterative process,  a type  2 transport model  for chloride  in
Saginaw Bay was calibrated and verified by Richardson (1976).   Average
chloride  loads  to  the bay of 2.8 million  kg/day and 1.2 million kg/day were
measured  in 1965 and  1974, respectively.   The calibration with June-
November  1965 data that was obtained is shown in Figure 20.  Verification
with June-November 1974 data is  shown  in  Figure 21.   Figure 22 shows  the
advective  transport scheme used  for both  of  these computations.  Disper-
sion from  segment  to  segment varies from  about  3.9  km2/day  near the  Sagi-
naw River  and along the southeast  shore of the  bay,  to  14.6 km2/day  along
the northwest shore.
 SEA  OF  AZOV

 Hydrodynamic  and Dispersion Calculation

     The parameters  used for the application of the hydrodynamic model to
 the  Sea of Azov are listed in Table 8.   The equation-of-state is based upon
 the  form used by Crowley (1968) for oceanic calculations.   It is:

     p - P0 =  10~3 (28.14 - .0735T - .00469T2 + (.802 - .002T) (S-35))   (11)

 where

      p   = density of water (gin/cm^),

      PO = 1 gm/cm,
                                      58

-------
                                                 UPPER ANGARA
                                                   . .'.RIVER
  ANGARA RIVER
                                                   {.. BARGUZIN
                                                      ''  RIVER
                                iSELENGA RIVER
                                       MASS TRANSPORT
                                       SEGMENT BOUNDARIES
Figure 18.  Fourteen-segment type 1  transport model for Lake Baikal.
                                 59

-------
                               TABLE 7.  CHARACTERISTICS OF FOURTEEN-SEGMENT TYPE 1
                                          TRANSPORT MODEL FOR LAKE BAIKAL
ON
o
     Segment
     Number

     Surface
     Area
     Volume
N
S(km2)
V(km3)
1
1150
230
2
2950
590
3
2325
465
4
3150
630
5
2550
510
6
2050
410
7
2850
770
8
1175
235
9
1625
325
10
1725
345
11
1575
315
12
2200
440
13
1950
390
14
1850
370
                             Inflow:  Selenga    2.5 knr/yr
                                      Barguzin   1.063 km^/yr
                                      Upper Angara  1.5 km-Vyr
Outflow:  Angara  5.063 km /yr

-------
1965 RESULTS
                   CHLORIDE CONCEN
                     TRATION, mg/l

                    	CALCULATED

                    '•  	OBSERVED
WATER EXCHANGES
BETWEEN SEGMENTS
         Figure 19.  Sixteen-segment type 1 transport model for Saginaw Bay.

-------
    CHLORIDE CONCENTRATION, mg/l

       MEASURED
       CALCULATED
Figure 20.  Type 2 transport model calibration with 1965 Saginaw Bay
                    chloride concentrations.
                              62

-------
         (a) March through June, 1974
              -N-
              40
              50
CHLORIDE CONCEN-
 TRA TION, mg/l
 -00—CALCULATED
 "DO--- MEASURED
         (b) July through November, 1974
Figure 21.  Type 2 transport model verification with 1974  Saginaw Bay
                    chloride concentrations.
                              63

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  000
     •• NETADVECTIVE
         FLOW (m3/sec)
    @ MODEL SEGMENT
         NUMBER
LAKE HURON
                           0|	|10KM
                                   —MOMI
     C5>
Figure 22.  Type 2 transport model water exchanges
                for Saginaw Bay.
                        64

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      TABLE 8.  PARAMETERS FOR SEA OF AZOV HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL
Gr-'d spacings


Horizontal extents


Number of grid points



Minimum depth

Maximum depth

Corlolis parameter ^46°flO

Horizontal eddy viscosity

Vertical eddy v*scos;ty

Horizontal eddy diffusiv'ty

Vertical eddy diffusivity

Partite settling
6.84 km   y-d i rec t i on
9.46 km   x-direcf-on

362.5 km  y-direction
2T7.5 km  x-d-irection
54
24
8
1 m
13 m
y-direction
x-dlrection
z -direct1" on


1.046x10 4/sec

3xl06 cra2/sec

25 cm2/sec

3x10  cm /sec

10 cm2/sec

10 m/day
                                65

-------
    T   = temperature (°C), and

    S   = salinity
    The Sea of Azov is generally mixed vertically because  it  is  so  shallow,
and it is generally of uniform temperature during the  summer  (around  20°C).
Th^s value for the temperature was used  in the equati on-of-state.   Figure 23
indicates the horizontal grid scheme used for the discretization process.
Variable-density, uniform temperature calculations were performed to  make
comparisons with currents that were observed during the summer of 1957.
These currents and winds were presented  earlier  in Figure  7.  The data d^'d
not suggest what currents these were:  surface currents, near-surface cur-
rents, vertically averaged currents, or  vertically integrated currents.  One
additiona1 calculation was performed usi-ng the bas^'c wind  from the  second
observed case for an  increased Don River flow of 5 km3 /year.  This  corre-
sponds to the amount  of water that is considered for rediversion back into
the river in an effort to reverse the trend of increasing  salinity  in the
sea.  It was hoped that the  two calculations would indicate if the  trend
could be changed.  Table 9 indicates the conditions specific  to  each  of the
calculations that were made.  The basic  data for inflows,  outflows, evapora-
tion, etc., are from  Table 4.  The flows in each direction through  the
straits between the Sea of Azov and the  Black Sea were based  on  historical
records (Semenov 1972 ">.  Typical flows for the summer  were used, with flow
from the Sea of Azov  into the Black Sea  in the surface portion of the
straits and flow intrusion into the Sea  of Azov  through the deeper  portion
of the straits.  The  salinity of water flowing from the Black Sea was set
at 17 gm/kg.  One diffic^ty that did. develop when applying the  conditions
to the model was in the detail of the wind field (e.g., Case  3 is con-
sidered essentially a constant westerly  wind situation).   However,  it was
found that a completely constant wind could not  be used to calculate  the
current pattern suggested for this wind.  Since  existing data indicated
that the wind ;s constant to within 7-10 m/sec,  a wind pattern with varia-
tion over th^'s range  was tried in the calculation.  Part of the  calculation
procedure with the model thus consisted  of experimenting with different
wind patterns, within the limits specified by the data, to determine  what
would best approximate the observed results.

    Complete results  of the  calculations are presented in  Appendix  C.  All
of the calculations were performed for 2 days of real  time with  the wind
and river flows constant over this time  period.  The initial  conditions for
the salinity distribution were obtained  from the initial salinity values
used in the transport model  of Gorstko and Surkov for  the  sea (see  next sec-
tion'*.  After 2 days, the currents achieved quasi-steady-state.  The  salin-
ity distribution was  still slowly varying in time, and thus affecting the
current calculations, but these changes  were small and had a  negligible
affect on the comparison with the observed data.  The  results for Case 3 of
the observed data were obtained for both a spatially uniform wind,  and for
a slightly varying wind.  It was observed that the calculated currents below
the surface and the vertically integrated currents were significantly af-
fected by the spatial variation of the wind.  Sample results  for the  cur-
rents at 2 meters below the  water surface are shown in Figure 24.   These
currents agree best with the observed data.  The major discrepancies  appear

                                     66

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                                                                  DON

                                                                'RIVER
N
\
                                                    SCALE:



                                                   0   25  50
                                                   I   i   i


                                                  KILOMETERS
                    BLACK SEA  KUBAN

                     STRAITS   RIVER
Figure 23.  Hydrodynamic model grid for  Sea of Azov calculation.

-------
TABLE 9.  PARAMETERS FOR THREE WIND CASES
       OF SEA OF AZOV CALCULATIONS

Q^ ''Don)
Q2 (Kuban)
Evaporation
Precipitation
Net flow out
Flow from Sea
Black Sea

o
m-Ysec
cm-Vsec
2
m /sec
o
cm /sec
mm/day
cm , /sec
mm/day
cm /sec
straits
cm /sec
of Azov to
cm^/sec
Flow from Black Sea to
Sea of Azov
cm^/sec
Case 1
530
5 . 3xl08
500
5.0xl08
2.4
10.4xl08
0
0
-.IxlO8
7.7xl08

7.8xl08

Case 2
600
6.0x10
520
5.2xl08
2.0
8.7xl08
0
0
2.5xT08
8.4xl08

5.9xl08

Case 2a
760
7.6x10°
520
5.2x10
2.0
8.7xl08
0
0
4.1xl08
9.6xl08

5.5xl08

Case 3
570 8
5.7x10
450
4.5xl08
2.8
12.2xlOB
0.4
l.SxlO8
-.2xl08
7 . 7xl08

7.9xl08

                      68

-------
in replicating the center of the gyre for all of the cases.  Problems  also
appear in duplicating the currents for Case 1 south of the Tagonrog  Bay
area and along the southern shore of the sea.  These probTerns may be due  to
the variations rn the wind that probably occurred during the observations,
but for which no information is available.

    The results of the calculations to determine the effect of an increased
flow in the Don River are shown in Figure 25 for the surface sa^in^'ty  dis-
tributions.  These calculations are identical to the previous except that
they represent 6 months of real time.  A comparison does indicate that the
increased river flow can change the salinity in the sea.  The results  indi-
cate an average drop of .1 gm/kg in saninity for the sea over the time
period of increased river flow.  It should be remembered that these cal-
culations are for a somewhat arbitrary flow through the straits.  The  re-
sults are sensitive to the conditions specified at the straits, and a  dif-
ferent change in average salinity could be obtained for different condi-
tions.  The f1ow conditions used were typical of the summer when the Black
Sea flow into the Sea of Azov was maxima1.

    The transport and dispersion of material in the sea were made using the
currents calculated for Cases 1 and 3.  For each case, two different calcul-
ations were performed:  one for neutrally buoyant particles, and one for
particles with gravitationa1 settling velocities of 10 m/day.  The first
corresponds to dissolved materials, and the second to suspended so1ids.
The calculations were performed for 28 days with material continually  added
through the Kuban and Don Rivers.  The material concentration in the rivers
was arbitrarily set to 1.0.  Since the equations to be solved are linear,
the actual concentration va1ues are not important.  The results of the cal-
culations are presented in Append;x C.  Figure 26 shows the surface and
bottom concentrations with the Case 1 calculated currents for both dis-
solved and suspended material.  The calculation for the suspended material
is not significantly different than the dissolved material calculation.
This may seem odd since the same settling velocity was used in the Lake
Baikal transport calculation and the results there were decidedly different.
This is explained when the relative importance of verti.ca1 mixing and  gravi-
tational settling for these two applications is examined.  This is indi-
cated by a vertical Reynolds number based upon the settling velocity,  i.e.,
Wgh/Dy, where wg is the settling velocity, h is the depth and DV is the
vertical turbulent diffusn'vity.  For the Sea of Azov calculation, this num-
ber is approximately 1, while for the Lake Baikal calculation, this number
ranges from 10 to 100.  So, the gravitatinal settling is significantly more
important than vertical mixing for the Lake Baikal calculation, while  for
the Sea of Azov calculation, both are of equal importance.  This behavior
is typical of shallow seas and lakes, that is, suspended so1ids remain in
the water column for long periods of time.  The flux out of the water  column
is determined by the bottom boundary condition.  This detail has not been
addressed in this study.  Another observation of the results for the dis-
persion calculation is that materials added from the Kuban River disperse
throughout the sea much more rapidly than materials added from the Don
River.  This is mainly due to the reduced flow occurring in Tagonrog Bay.
Material input from the Don River has to be transported through this bay
                                     69

-------
       CASE1
VELOCITIES 2 METERS
  BELOW SURFACE
   N
                            tttttffftttt,
                                                 15 CM/SEC
    Figure 24a.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
          CASE 2
   VELOCITIES 2 METERS
     BELOW SURFACE
N
4
_l.   .    .».,,»»^
         *»• • «•«•«•«•*'«-«-

                  SCALE:
                0   25   50
                I	1	1
                KILOMETERS
                                                15 CM/SEC
    Figure 24b.   Hydrodynamic model calculation for  Sea of Azov.

-------
N
             CASES
       VELOCITIES 2 METERS
         BELOW SURFACE
                                   JT:...
                           -•*
                           =^
                           >*>$
                                                   15 CM/SEC
       Figure 24c.  Hydrodynamic model calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
          DON RIVER FLOW:
          	760 m3/sec
          	600m3/sec
                                                     KILOMETERS
SURFACE SALINITY CONCENTRATIONS
     Figure 25.  Surface salinity in Sea of Azov after six months with and
                     without increased Don River flow.

-------
   N
              CASE1
          NO SETT LING

             SCALE:
           0   25   50
                                                         CONCENTRATION
                                                           (PER VOLUME)
                                                             A
                                                             B
                                                             C
                                                             D
                                                             E
                                                             F
                                                             G
                                                             H
                                                             I
                                                             J
                                                             K
1.00000
0.30000
0.10000
0.03000
0.01000
0.00300
0.00100
0.00030
0.00010
0.00003
0.00001
SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS
             Figure 26a.  Dispersion model calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
                    CASE 1
                 NO SETT LING
            SCALE:
  N
                                         r
                                                        CONCENTRATION
                                                          (PER VOLUME)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
1.00000
0.30000
0.10000
0.03000
0.01000
0.00300
0.00100
0.00030
0.00010
0.00003
0.00001
BOTTOM CON CENTRA TIONS
        Figure 26b.  Dispersion model  calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
                        CASE 1
                 SETTLING, 10m/day
              SCALE:
    N
                                                        CONCENTBA TION
                                                          (PER VOLUME)
SURFACE CON CENTRA TIONS
A
B
C
O
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
1.00000
0.30000
0.10000
0.03000
0.01000
0.00300
0.00100
0.00030
0.00010
0.00003
0.00001
           Figure  26c.  Dispersion model calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
      CASE 1
SETTLING, 10m/day
       SCALE:
     0   25  50
     I	1
                            N
                                                            CONCENTRATION
                                                             (PER VOLUME)

                                                               A  1.00000
                                                               B  0.30000
                                                                  0.10000
                                                                  0.03000
                                                                  0.01000
                                                                  0.00300
                                                                  0.00100
                                                                  0.00030
                                                                  0.00010
                                                                  0.00003
                                                                  0.00001
BOTTOM CONCENTRA TIONS
           Figure  26d.  Dispersion model calculation for Sea of Azov.

-------
before it enters the main  portion  of the  sea,  while  the  Kuban River empti.es
almost directly into the main  porf'on of  the  sea.  No data were available
for tVs study to compare  with the dispersion calculations.

Type 1 Transport Calculation

    The  type  1 steady-state transport mode1 developed by Gorstko and Surkov
C1975") was applied  to  a  7-segment  model  for the  Sea  of Azov.   The model was
applied  to the 3 cases observed during the summer  of 1957 ''Figure 7 and
Table 4">.  The water exchanges determined for the  3  cases are shown in Fi-
gure 27.  These agree  with the observed  currents (Figure 7).   The transient
transport model was applied to salinity  dynamics using the water exchanges
determined for Case 2.  Table  10 indicates the initial saTinity values, and
the values calculated  5  davs  later.  The  calculated  results agree within
one percent with the observed
                                      78

-------
                        CASE 1
               2  SEGMENT NUMBER
              	DIRECTION OF TRANSPORT
            	SEGMENT BOUNDARY
Figure 21 a.  Type 1 transport model calculation for Sea of Azov.
                         79

-------
                       CASE 2
               2  SEGMENT NUMBER
              	DIRECTION OF TRANSPORT
            	SEGMENT BOUNDARY
Figure 27b. Type 1 transport model calculation for Sea of Azov.
                         80

-------
                        CASES
                2  SEGMENT NUMBER
                  DIRECTION OF TRANSPORT
             ----- SEGMENT BOUNDARY
Figure 27c.  Type 1 transport model calculation for Sea of Azov.
                          81

-------
TABLE 10.  TYPE 1 TRANSPORT MODEL SALINITY
             FOR SEA OF AZOV

Initial salinity
Segment (gm/kg)
t 10.761
2 10.641
3 9 . 884
4 10.686
5 6.915
6 3.940
7 1.451
Calculated salinity
after 5 days
(gm/kg)
10.736
10.620
9.846
10.667
6.796
3.787
1.382
                    82

-------
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     in the  near-shore  of large lakes.   Lake  Erie  International Jetport
     Model Feasibility  Investigation Report  17-5,  Contract Report  H-75-1,
     U.S. Army Engineer Waterways  Experiment  Station,  Vicksburg, Miss.


 Smith, V.E.,  K.W.  Lee,  J.C. Filkins, K.W. Hartwell, K.R.  Rygwelski, and
     J.M. Townsend.   1977.   Survey of chemical  factors  in  Saginaw  Bay  (Lake
     Huron).   EPA-600/3-77-125.
                                      84

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Thomann, R.V.  1972.  Systems Analysis and Water Quality Management.
    Environmental Science Services Division, New York.
Thomann, R.V., D.M. DiToro, R.P. Winfield and D.J. O'Connor.  1975.  Mathe-
    matical modeling of phytoplankton in Lake Ontario.  Part 1,  model
    development and verification.  EPA-660/3-75-005.
Vikulina, Z.A. and T.D. Kashinova.  1973.  Water balance of Lake Baikal.
    Trudy GGI, Issue 203, pg. 268.  Gidrometeoizdat,  Leningrad.
                                     85

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                                APPENDIX A

    AGREEMENT ON COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
       BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE UNION OF SOVIET
                           SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
    The Government of the United States of America and the Government of
the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics:

    Attaching great importance to the problems of environmental
protection;

    Proceeding on the assumption that the proper utilization of contempo-
rary scientific, technical and manageable achievements can, with appro-
priate control of their undesirable consequences, make possible the
improvement of the interrelationship between man and nature;

    Considering that the development of mutual cooperation in the field of
environmental protection, taking into account the experience of countries
with different social and economic systems, will be beneficial to the
United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, as
well as to other countries;

    Considering that economic and social development for the benefit of
future generations requires the protection and enhancement of the human
environment today;

    Desiring to facilitate the establishment of closer and long-term co-
operation between interested organizations of the two countries in this
field;

    In accordance with the Agreement between the United States of America
and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Exchanges and Cooperation
in Scientific, Technical, Educational, Cultural, and Other Fields in 1972-
1973, signed April 11, 1972, and developing further the principles of mu-
tually beneficial cooperation between the two countries;

    Have agreed as follows:
                                    86

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Article 1

    The Parties will develop cooperation in the field of environmental
protection on the basis of equality, reciprocity, and mutual benefit.


Article 2

    This cooperation will be aimed at achieving the most important aspects
of the problems of the environment and will be devoted to working out mea-
sures to prevent pollution, to study pollution and its effect on the
environment, and to develop the basis for controlling the impact of human
activities on nature.

    It will be implemented, in particular, in the followinr  reas:

         Air pollution;
         Water pollution;
         Environmental pollution associated with agricultural
            product!on;
         Enhancement of the urban environment;
         Preservation of nature and the organization of preserves;
         Marine pollution;
         Biological and genetic consequences of environmenta1
            pollution:
         Influence of environmental changes on climate;
         Earthquake prediction;
         Arctic and subarctic ecological systems;
         Legal and administrative measure for protecting environ-
            mental quality.

    In the course of this cooperation the Parties will devote special at-
tention to joint efforts improving existing technologies and developing
new technologies which do not pollute the environment, to the introduction
of these new technologies into everyday use, and to the study of their
economic aspects.

    The Parties declare that, upon mutual agreement,  they will share the
results of such cooperation with other countries.
Article 3

    The Parties will conduct cooperative activities in the field of envi-
ronment protection by the following means:

         Exchange of scientists, experts and research scholars;
         Organization of bilateral conferences, symposia and
            meetings of experts;
         Exchange of scientific and technical information and docu-
            mentation, and the results of research on environment;
                                    87

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         Joint development and implementation of programs and pro-
            jects in the field of basic and applied sciences;
         Other forms of cooperation which may be agreed upon in the
            course of the imp1ementation of this Agreement.


Article 4

    Proceeding from the aims of this Agreement the Parties will encourage
and facilitate, as appropriate, the establishment and development of
direct contacts and cooperation between institutions and organizations,
governmental, public and private, of the two countries, and the conclu-
sion, where appropriate, of separate agreements and contracts.
Article 5

    For the implementation of  this Agreement a US-USSR Joint Committee on
Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection shall be established.
As a rule this Joint Committee  shall meet once a year in Washington and
Moscow, alternately.  The Joint Committee shall approve concrete measures
and programs of cooperation, designate  the participating organizations re-
sponsible for the realization  of these  programs and make recommendations,
as appropriate, to the  two Governments.

    Each Party shall designate  a coordinator.  These coordinators,
between sessions of the Joint  Committee, shall maintain contact between
the United States and Soviet parts, supervise the  implementation of the
pertinent cooperative programs, specify the individual sections of these
programs and coordinate the activities  of organizations participating in
environmental cooperation in accordance with this  Agreement.
Article 6

    Nothing  in  this Agreement  shall be  construed  to prejudice other agree-
ments concluded between  the  two Parties.
Article  7

    This agreement  shall  enter  into  force upon  signature  and  shall remain
in  force for  five years after which  it will be  extended for successive
five year periods unless  one Party notifies the other  of  the  termination
thereof  not  less than  six months  prior to its expiration.

    The  termination of this Agreement shall not affect the validity of
agreement and contracts between interested institution and organizations
of  the two countries concluded  on the basis of  this Agreement.
                                     88

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    DONE on May 23, 1972 at Moscow in duplicate, in the English and
Russian languages, both texts being equally authentic.
    FOR THE UNITED STATES
        OF AMERICA:

       Richard Nixon

President of the United States
        of America
   FOR THE UNION OF SOVIET
    SOCIALIST REPUBLICS:

       N. V. N.V. Podgorny

Chairman of the Presidium of the
 Supreme Soviet of the U.S.S.R.
                                    89

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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-600/3-79-015
2.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  RESULTS  OF A JOINT U.S.A./U.S.S.R. HYDRODYNAMIC
  AND TRANSPORT MODELING PROJECT
                              3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION" NO.
                              5. REPORT DATE
                                February 1979
                              6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7.AUTHORS) John F> Paulj William L. Richardson,
  Alexandr B. Gorstko  (Rostov State University), Anton
  A. Matveyev (Hydrochemical Institute, Hydromet)	
                              8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
  Large Lakes Research  Station
  Environmental Research  Laboratory-Duluth
  Grosse lie, Michigan  48138
                              10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                                1BA769
                              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  Environmental Research Laboratory  - Duluth, MN
  Office of Research  and Development
  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
  Duluth, Minnesota   55804
                              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                Final
                              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                                EPA/600/03
 15.SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES  Performed as part of project  02.02-12 (Water Quality  in  Lakes
   and Estuaries) of U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Environmental  Agreement.  Appendices B, C,  and D
   are bound separately and available from NTIS.	
 16. ABSTRACT
   A joint modeling project with scientists  from the U.S.A. and U.S.S.R. has been
   accomplished.  The three geographical areas  investigated include Lake Baikal  and
   the Sea of Azov in the U.S.S.R. and Saginaw  Bay, Lake Huron in the U.S.A.   The
   modeling approaches  ranged from those employing  material and mass conservation
   to describe water movement to those involving solution of the complete three-
   dimensional hydrodynamic equations.  The  model calculations were compared to
   available data and,  in all cases, reasonable agreement was obtained.

   This report covers a period from May 1977 to December 1977, and work was completed
   as of April 1978.
17.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C. COSATI Field/Group
   Hydrodynamics
   Mathematical models
   Circulation
   Lakes
                  Lake Baikal
                  Sea of Azov
                  Saginaw Bay
                  Wind Driven Circulation
                  U.S.A./U.S.S.R. Environ-
                    mental Agreement
  08/H
  20/D
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

   RELEASE TO PUBLIC
                 19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
                  UNCLASSIFIED
21. NO. OF PAGES
      102
                20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
                  UNCLASSIFIED
                                           22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                            90
                                                                    i U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1979-657-060/1601

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