EPA 600/5 75-003
March 1975
Socioeconomic Environmental Studies Series
Land Use Forms and the Environment
- An Executive Summary
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into five series. These five broad
categories were established to facilitate further development and appli-
cation of environmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping
was consciously planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum inter-
face in related fields. The five series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
This report has been assigned to the SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
series. This series includes research on environmental management,
economic analysis, ecological impacts, comprehensive planning and fore-
casting and analysis methodologies. Included are tools for determining
varying impacts of alternative policies, analyses of environmental plan-
ning techniques at the regional, state and local levels, and approaches
to measuring environmental quality perceptions, as well as analysis of
ecological and economic impacts of environmental protection measures.
Such topics as urban form, industrial mix, growth policies, control and
organizational structure are discussed in terms of optimal environmental
performance. These interdisciplinary studies and systems analyses are
presented in forms varying from quantitative relational analyses to manage-
ment and policy-oriented reports.
EPA REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and Development,
EPA, and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental
Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
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EPA-600/5-75-003
March 1975
Land Use Forms
and the Environment
An Executive Summary
by
Brian J. L. Berry
Grant No. 801419
Program Element 1HA098
Roap/Task 21 AKL 02
Project Officer
Dr. Philip D. Patterson
Washington Environmental Research Center
Washington, D.C. 20460
Prepared for
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
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CONTENTS
Page
I CONCLUSIONS 1
II. BACKGROUND 2
III. CONCEPTS 6
IV. THE GROUPING OF METROPOLITAN AREAS 11
A. The Sorting Table
B. Pollution Data Used in the Grouping
C. Factor Analysis of the Pollution Data
D. The City Characteristics
V. INTER-METROPOLITAN ANALYSES 20
A. Findings Related to Property Values
B. Findings Related to Land Use Relationships
C. Comparison with Intra-Metropolitan
Property Value Studies
VI. INTRA-METROPOLITAN ANALYSES 33
A. Sample Density Relations
VII. SUMMARY 35
ii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This executive summary of the final report of Grant 8D1419, which
was sponsored by The Washington Environment Research Center,
Office of Research and Development, U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, was completed by members of the Department of Geography
and Center for Urban Studies, University of Chicago. The project
director was Brian J. L. Berry and the EPA project officer was
Philip D. Patterson.
ill
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I. CONCLUSIONS
The relationships between the size and economic functions of
metropolitan regions, the income levels of their residents, and the
nature and intensity of environmental pollution have been documented
and clarified in a number of recent studies. The most important
finding of the study summarized here is that — in 1970, metropolitan
regions of similar sizes, economic functions and income levels had
different urban forms; that as urban form varied, so did the urban
land use pattern; and that as land use varied, so did environmental
pollution. In particular, it was concluded that high-density, con-
centrated, core-oriented urban regions had superior air and water
quality to sprawling, dispersed urban regions of similar size and
economTc functions.
This conclusion is important, because urban form is itself
determined by the modal mix of transportation and the location of
transport routes, employment complexes, airports and open spaces,
and each of these is to some extent controllable by land use planning.
Thus, to the extent that variations in urban form produce variations
in environmental pollution, land use planning becomes a positive in-
strument for achieving environmental quality goats.
A second conclusion points to the difficulties of this task,
however. Many economists agree that property values measure the net
benefits expected to flow over the useful life of an investment in
a particular land use, taking into account both the economies de-
rived from urban agglomerations and the environmental and social
costs of urban life. Following this logic, the aggregate property
values of metropolitan regions, should therefore reflect the total
stream of benefits expected to flow from the land uses within each
region. The research summarized here concluded that aggregate pro-
perty values, as expected, increase with city size and with income
levels and decrease with the size of manufacturing concentrations.
But most importantly, the aggregate property values are greater in
more dispersed regions than they are in metropolitan areas with more
concentrated urban forms. As measured by 1967 property values and
1970 air pollution levels, there is therefore a conflict between
the economically most desirable urban form (sprawl), and the environ-
mentally most desirable form (concentration). The urban regions
that are emerging reflect market responses to the greater aggregate
net benefits in the more dispersed urban forms. Decentralization
in our cities appears to be continuing apace, with the apparent con-
sequence of increasing metropolitan environmental quality problems.
Herein is the challenge to those who would formulate a national land
use policy.
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II. BACKGROUND
A few words of background are Important. Under the provisions
of Project No. R-80H»19, "Land Use Forms and the Environment", under-
taken for the Washington Environmental Research Center, Office of
Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by a
research group at the University of Chicago, a voluminous final
report was submitted to EPA in November, 1973. This report was pub-
lished in April, 197** under the title Land Use, Urban Form and Environ-
menta1 Qua 1?ty (The University of Chicago: Department of Geography
Research Paper No. 155, 1974, xxiv and 438 pages). It was felt by
the Agency's staff that the report was too long and too technical
for wide circulation, and so an "executive summary" was requested to
highlight the principal conclusions. This Is that summary.
It is important to realize what is summarized and what has been
excluded from the pages that follow. When our research began in the
summer of 1972 we searched in vain for sources—both within and out-
side EPA—to which we could turn for reasonably concise guides to
the nature and sources of each type of environmental pollution, to
the measurement systems and surveillance networks now in use, to the
data currently available, to the latest information on effluent and
emission sources and amounts, to the incidence of pollution, to
assessments of quality in terms of National and/or local standards,
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and to what is known about health and welfare effects of pollution,
the presumed bases of the standards. As might have been expected, the
search was difficult. No agency has the responsibility for drawing
together all that is known, although EPA is now doing more than most.
Therefore, for each aspect of environmental quality we were
expected to address in our research—air, water, solid wastes, noise,
pesticides and radiation—we culled the literature, badgered the rele-
vant organizations and agencies, and pulled together our own summary
and assessment of current pollutant data sources and environmental
quality assessment systems. Six chapters of the larger report, one
for each pollutant, are devoted to these summaries. The 250 pages
involved provide an identically-structured treatment of each pollutant,
looking in turn at measurement systems, generation information, qua-
lity assessment, and health and welfare effects. The person who needs
the kind of reference system and background knowledge that we found
to be lacking when we began our research should turn to the larger
report, because these background materials are not reviewed in this
summary.
Instead, this document focuses on the original findings of the
research group, comprising faculty members and students in the Depart-
ment of Geography and/or the Center for Urban Studies of the University
of Chicago. The findings relate urban form and environmental pollution
(a) across the spectrum of U.S. metropolitan areas considered as enti-
-------
ties, and (b) on a more detailed basis within a sample of these
urban regions, at a point in time centering on the 1970 census year.
In both cases, the research involved painstaking data collection
and many experimental statistical analyses. Again, the details of
this research will not be addressed in this summary; the full re-
port is the place for these. Rather, we will highlight the results
that appear to hold most significance for public policies that affect
the relationship between land use, urban form and environmental
quality.
Because this is a summary, many of the bbvious caveats about
data quality, gaps in knowledge, and the like will remain unsaid.
Yet, lest there be any doubts about the matter, the research group's
findings concerning environmental data should be known at the outset:
Collection of data on environmental quality
is in a developmental state at this time.
Gaps and Inconsistencies abound. The nation's
environmental data banks either use the avail-
able monitoring networks selectively and
incompletely or assemble all available data,
regardless of source, completeness or quality
into an often poorly-functioning data bank.
In other cases (e.g., solid wastes and noise)
comparative nationwide Information is totally
lacking, or is at a scale that does not per-
mit detailed investigation of the effects of
different urban forms on environmental quality
(e.g., pesticides and radiation).
Much effort on the environmental information side will have to be
expended before research of the kind we report here can progress
beyond the exploratory and experimental stage. That such effort
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might be well-spent Is, however, Indicated by our results: we do
find, subject to all the qualifications above, that different urban
forms had significant effects on environmental quality in 1970.
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III. CONCEPTS
The finding that urban form affects environmental quality is
to be understood within the framework of a conceptual scheme that
was used to structure the research and a body of data that was used
to test the validity of the concepts.
In the first part of the study, in which entire metropolitan
areas were used as units of analysis, the conceptual scheme was de-
rived from contemporary urban economic theory. For purposes of the
study, such city characteristics as population size, the nature of
the urban economic base and the income levels of the area's resi-
dents were taken as "givens," determined by the role played by the
city within the national economy. The question was one of exactly
how urban activities are translated Into land use and how land use
relates to environmental pollution.
Urban form, as indicated by population density patterns, the
nature of the highway network, etc., was hypothesized to play an
important role In the translation of city characteristics into land
use. The transport network, for example, helps determine the loca-
tion of economic activities and residences, and whether the urban
region has a radial structure from a dominant central business dis-
trict, or whether It is sprawling and multi-centered. Whether or
not the urban structure Is highly concentrated or dispersed deter-
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mines the land supply and, at any given level of demand for land,
whether the land Is used Intensively or extensively. Concentration
and dispersion, in turn, both result from and help determine the
transportation patterns of the metropolitan region and along with
the size and affluence of a community are reflected in the pattern
of urban densities.
In turn, land use was hypothesized to determine land values.
Given well-functioning markets, it is a well-established principle
of urban economics that the price of land and the capital assets
located on it will equal the present value of the future stream of
net benefits expected to flow over the useful life of the assets —
increased, as several economists have recently pointed out, by the
positive externalities derived from others, as well as being re-
*
duced by such negative externalities as pollution imposed by others.
If this Is true for each individual property within a metropolitan
area, it should also be true of the sum total for all properties
within that region: aggregate land values should include the agglo-
meration economies of large urban complexes, and should be reduced
by such disbenefits as the costs imposed by discharge of pollutants
into the urban environment. Further, high property values should
contribute to the comparative advantage of the urban region in the
national economy, attracting investment, while low values resulting
from higher levels of environmental pollution and/or from other ef-
fects should detract from this comparative advantage.
* To the extent that buyers and sellers of property are aware of
the actual damages caused by pollution and other externalities.
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The overall conceptual model is depicted in Figure 1. In
keeping with what has just been said, It postulates that urban
characteristics are the determinants of land use, with an intervening
role played by urban form (causal influences are indicated by arrows).
Land use is seen as determining land values, but the land use pat-
tern Is, in turn, also seen to be the source of the environmental
pollution that reduces these values.
Consistent with this conceptual model, the research strategy at
the metropolitan scale was to study the following:
(i) Environmental pollution as a function of
land use, land use as a function of urban form
and city characteristics, and environmental
pollution as a function of urban form and city
characteristics, to determine the ways in which
urban form translates city characteristics into
land use, and its role therefore in enhancing
or reducing the environmental pollution that
results from urban size, economic base, and
income levels.
(ii) Land values as a function of city charac-
teristics, urban form and environmental pollu-
tion, to measure the ways in which agglomeration
economies and negative externalities intertwine.
At the intra-metropolitan scale, because of serious data limita-
tions, the research was more experimental, designed to open up lines
of research inquiry. Details of the urban land use pattern were re-
lated to details of the pollution map on a case-study basis following
the logic outlined in Figure 2, in which the circular"relationships
between the urban land use pattern and the pollution map are spelled
8
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Figure 1
OVERALL CONCEPTUAL MODEL
NATIONAL
ECONOMY
CITY CHARACTERISTICS
URBAN FORM
TRANSPORT MESH
LAND SUPPLY
CORE ORIENTATION
DISPERSION
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
URBAN DENSITIES
LEVEL
PATTERN
LAND USE
MIX
PATTERN
INTENSITY
LAND VALUES
NET DISBENEFITS
AGGREGATE BENEFITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLLUTION
TYPE
INTENSITY
PATTERN
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out. Only in the case of air pollution were comparisons of several
metropolitan areas possible on a detailed intra-metropolI tan basis.
FIGURE 2
CONCEPTUAL MODEL USED IN THE FORMULATION
INTRA-METROPOLI TAN STUDIES
LAND USE PATTERN
IN URBAN REGION
POLLUTION MAP
OBTAINED FROM
SURVEILLANCE
RECEPTORS
RESIDUALS SOURCES
GENERATION FACTORS
RESIDUALS MEASURED
AT RECEPTORS
DIFFUSION.
DISPERSION
OR TRANSPORT
10
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IV. THE GROUPING OF METROPOLITAN AREAS
A. The Sorting Table
In all, 76 metropolitan regions were studied. The Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), as defined by the Office of
Management and Budget, was used as the unit of analysis. These
regions, whose locations are shown in Figure 3, are as follows:
Akron
Albuquerque
Al1 entown-Bethe 1 em-Easton
Atlanta
Baltimore
Bi rmingham
Boston
Bridgeport
Buffalo
Canton
Charleston, W. Va.
Chattanooga
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus, Ohio
Da 11 as
Dayton
Denver
Des Moines
Detroit
El Paso
Flint
Fort Worth
Gary-Hammond-East Chicago
Grand Rapids
Hartford
Honolulu
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonv!1le
Jersey City
Johnstown
Kansas City
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Louisville
Memph i s
Miami
MiIwaukee
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Nashvi1le-Davidson
New Haven
New Orleans
New York
Newa rk
Norfolk-Portsmouth
Oklahoma City
Omaha
Paterson-Cli fton-Passaic
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland, 0.
Provi dence-Pawtucket-Warwi ck
Reading
Richmond
Rochester, N.Y.
St. Louis
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
San Bernadino-Riverside-Ontario
San Diego
San Francisco-Oakland
San Jose
Seattle-Everett
Syracuse
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Toledo
Tulsa
Utica-Rome
Washington, D.C.
Wichita
Wi Imington
Worcester
York
Youngs town-Wa r ren
11
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ro
LOS ANGELES
Representative metropo-
litan areas selected for
use In intra-metropolltan
analysis
0 100 200
milts
FIGURE 3
METROPOLITAN AREAS USED IN THE INTER-METROPOLITAN ANALYSIS
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The first task completed in the project was to group these
SMSA's Into subsets on the basis of their pollution characteristics,
so that the environmental dissimilarity among the subsets was maximized
and the environmental dissimilarity among the SMSA's within each sub-
set was minimized. The subsets then were used to prepare a "sorting
table" that showed how each SMSA fitted into the nationwide spectrum
of variations in urban environmental pollution.
Table 1 summarizes thi's sorting table and Table 2 shows how the
groups of SMSA's differ in terms of several key urban indicators.
Some clear contrasts are evident between those groups of cities with
high levels of air pollution, for example, and those with poor water
quality.
The classification of the SMSA's into relatively homogeneous
subsets on the basis of their pollution characteristics was undertaken
for several reasons. One, as noted, was to learn more about nation-
wide variations in urban environmental quality. Another was to faci-
litate acquisition of more detailed local data on a sampling basis,
with some guarantee that the sample of SMSA's selected would span
the universe of pollution types. The SMSA's underlined in Tables 1
and 2 and shown by large dots in Figure 1, are those which were se-
lected as representative of these groups. It was for these SMSA's
that detailed metropolitan land use data were derived to be used in
the later analysis.
13
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TABLE 1
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SORTING TABLE
GROUP OF CITIES
Baltimore
Buffalo
Indianapolis
Lo« Angeles
M««mnaton D.
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
INDICATORS!
1. Water
Dissolved oxygen
Dissolved solids
Nitrates
Average WO. Index
2. Air
Average SOi
Average TSP
Average AQ Index
Average EV Index
3. Sol Id Wastes
Generated by In-
dividual mul-
tipliers
k. Noise
Tr° travel Index
^_^ Birmingham
Milwaukee Allentown- Charleston
Minneapolis Bethlehem Chattanooga
Philadelphia Canton Dayton
Pittsburgh Rochester Des Koines
Pprtland Yonngatown Qary-
St. Louis York Hammond
Johnstown
Nashville
Omaha
Reeding
Otica-Rome
Worcester
Bridgeport
Cleveland
Hartford
New Haven
Newark
providence
Flint Cjinoinnati Atlanta
Grand Rapids Jersey City . Boston
SSSonvllle) Kansas City Columbus
Lpuisville San Bernadino Delias
Honolulu Albuquerque
HMphis El.Paso
Denver
Salt L
Lake City
Norfolk
Patterson
Richmond
Toledo
Syracuse
Wilmington
7.2
865
3
5.1
34
115
3.2
9.7
5.897
170
8.0
211
5
1.2
49
117
3.4
8.4
6,737
228
5.3
820
16
2.8
38
106
2.7
5.9
1,440
194
7.8
353
3
1.6
25
119
3.2
10.6
999
36
7.1
95
4
2.1
51
84
2.7
4.2
2,482
99
7.9
407
3
2.2
20
82
2.1
2.2
1,434
34
7.0
4765
8
4.5
22
104
2.9
5.0
1,940
66
6
44'
]
3
2
3
4,5
1
Detroit
Fort Worth
Houston
Miami
New Orleans
New York
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose
Taapa-8t. Petersburg
19
Phoenix
Tulsa
Nichita
19
85
2.3
3.5
152
16
61
2.3
2.3
1,174
114
4.9
1,894
16
2.3
9
84
2.1
3.4
984
46
445
11
1.3
1}
82
2.2
1.1
1,564
110
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TABLE 2
KEY URBAN INDICATORS
GROUP OF CITIES
URBAN CHARACTER! VICSI
Population (In thousands)
Percent employed In
manufacturing.
Median fi»ml ly Income
(In thousands)
Urban property values
(billions)
URBAN FORM INDICATORS:
Central density (sample
city)
Density gradient (sample
city)
Radial highways
Circumferential highways
Open Space Percent
Baltimore
Buffalo
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Washington D.C
Chicago
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Portland
St. Louia
Akron
Allen town -
Bethlehem
Canton
Rochester
Youngstown
York
Birmingham
Charleston
Chattanooga
Dayton
Dec Koine*
Gary-
Hammond
Johnstown
Nashville
Omaha
Reading
Otlca-Rome
Worcester
Bridgeport Flint
Cleveland Grand Raplda
Hartford Jacksonville
New Haven Louisville
Newark Norfolk
Providence Patterson
Richmond
Toledo
Cincinnati
Jersey City
Kansas City
San Bernadino
Syracuse
Wilmington
Atlanta
Boston
Columbus
Dallas
Detroit
Port Worth
Houston
Miami
New Orleans
New York
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose
Seattle
Honolulu Albuquerque
Memphis El Paso
Oklahoma city
Phoenix
Tulsa
Hichita
Denver
Salt Lake City
Tampa-st. Petersburg
2,285
24.2
11.1
25.2
17,000
-.168
10.6
3.0
71.1
2,969
29.8
10.9
18.5
36,022
-.1281
10.9
2.7
70.7
557
43.9
10.6
3.4
10,931
-.3244
5.0
2.5
78.5
448
32.5
9.7
3.1
7,216
-.23*45
5.4
1.5
67.3
1,040
34.0
11.4
10.3
11,867
-.2687
7.5
1.6
81.6
705
29.4
10.3
4.7
.
_
6.6
1.7
82.1
921
30.3
10.2
8.5
10,558
-.1543
7.5
1.8
84.1
2,267
22.0
10.4
18.8
15,500
-.107
8.3
2.4
73.0
700 525
14.7 19.9
10.3 9.1
4.1 3.4
4,322
-.1714
5.5 4.0
2.0 3.0
84.6
893
16.4
10.4
6.6
10,198
-.1498
7.0
1.5
83.8
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B. Pollution Data Used in the Grouping
The environmental variables used to derive the groups of cities
shown in the sorting table were as follows:
AIR POLLUTANTS (data for 73 SMSA's)
Sulfur Dioxide (a) Annual Mean Concentration
(S02) (yg/m3)
(b) Annual Maximum Concentration
(yg/m3)
Total Suspended Partlculates (a) Annual Mean Concentration
(TSP) (yg/m3)
(b) Annual Maximum Concentration
(yg/m3)
DERIVED AIR QUALITY INDEXES (Source: The Mitre Corporation)
Mitre Air Quality Index (data for 6? SMSA's)
(a) S02 index numbers
(b) TSP index numbers
(c) N02 index numbers
(d) All Pollutants index numbers
Extreme Value Index (data for 59 SMSA's)
(a) S0£ index numbers
(b) TSP Index numbers
(c) All Pollutants index numbers
WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS (data for M SMSA's)
Temperature Degrees Fahrenheit
Color Platinum-Cobalt Units
Turbidity Jackson Turbidity Units
pH p" values
Fecal Coliform Bacteria MPN/100 ml.
Total Dissolved Solid ppm (residue at 180° C.)
Suspended Solids Parts per million
Total Nitrogen Parts per million
Alkalinity Parts per million (as CaC)
Hardness Parts per million (Ca, Mg)
Chlorides Parts per million
Total Iron and Manganese Parts per million
Sulfate Parts per million
Dissolved Oxygen Parts per million
16
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DERIVED WATER QUALITY INDEXES (data for 44 SMSA's)
Water Quality Index, Drinking Use index numbers
Water Quality Index, Recreation Use index numbers
Water Quality Index, Industrial Use index numbers
Mean Water Quality Index (averages of above 3) index numbers
SOLID WASTE ESTIMATES (data for 76 SMSA's)
Total Calculated from Simple
Generation Rate 1,000's tons/year
Total Calculated from Separate
Source Unit Estimators 1,000's tons/year
Same as second above, omitting manufacturing 1,000's tons/year
NOISE—SURROGATE INDICATORS (data for 76 SMSA's)
Automobile Traffic Volume Number of workers
using private automobiles
to commuted to work, SMSA
Air Traffic Volume Number of scheduled aircraft
arrivals and departures, SMSA
C. Factor Analysis of the Pollution Data
As noted, the above data were subjected to a factor analysis,
the purpose of which was to group the 76 SMSA's into subsets in such
a manner that the dissimilarity among the subsets is maximized and
the dissimilarity among SMSA's within the subsets is minimized.
Factor analysis is a complex mathematical procedure that cannot
be undertaken without a large computer. In the application here it
was used to explore the similarities and differences among the SMSA's,
simultaneously considering the 34 pollution variables listed above.
The result of the analysis was to determine that the 76 SMSA's should
be classified into the eleven groups shown in the sorting table.
17
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D. The Urban Characteristics
In addition to the pollution data, a set of ci^y characteristics
also was assembled to be used in the subsequent investigation, viz:
CITY CHARACTERISTICS (76 SMSA's)
1970 Central City Population 1000's
SMSA Population 1000's
Central City Density Pop./square mile
SMSA Density Pop./square mile
1960-70 Population Change, CITY percent
Population Change, SMSA percent
1970 Median Age of Population,
City years of age
Median Age of Population,
SMSA years of age
Median Family Income $
Percent of Labor Force
Employed in Manufacturing percent
Land Area, City square miles
1967 Total Value of Real Estate,
SMSA $l,000,000's
URBAN FORM INDICATORS (76 SMSA's)
Degrees of Arc of SMSA around CBD 0° to 360°
Density Ratio (SMSA density/city density)
Transportation Radials, SMSA number
Transportation Circumferentials, SMSA number
Finally, after the factor analysis had provided a pollution-sensitive
classification of the SMSA's, a sample of 13 cases was selected, with one
from each of the groups, both to enable preparation of metropolitan land-
use estimates and to limit the scope of the subsequent Intra-metro-
politan analysis. The land use variables collected were as follows:
18
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SMSA LAND USE (13 representative SMSA's)
Residential Percentage of total area
Commercial Percentage of total area
Industrial Percentage of total area
Extractive Percentage of total area
Public and Semi pub He Percentage of total area
Transportation, Communications,
Utilities (TCU) Percentage of total area
Open Space Percentage of total area
19
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V. INTER-METROPOLITAN ANALYSIS
A. Findings Related to Property Values
One stage In the analysis Involved an examination of the relation-
ships between the total value of property In each of the 76 metropo-
litan areas, the size and other characteristics of the SMSA's, the
agglomeration economies accompanying concentration of activity in these
urban areas, and the negative externalities of growth, including
environmental pollution.
It is pointed out in the existing literature of urban economics
that the net benefits of urban life should, first of all, vary directly
with the size of the metropolis. The larger the city, the greater
the size of market that can be reached, the greater the access to
information about new products and processes, the better the access
to a wide range of specialized suppliers, and the easier it is to
recruit and retain a specialized workforce. In industries marked by
uncertain and fluctuating demands, there are advantages in being
located in a city where specialized inputs can be obtained quickly.
For households, there are advantages of a larger range of potential
employment opportunities, varied and specialized sources of consumer
goods and services, and access to those cultural activities that are
available only in the larger cities. Such benefits should become
manifest through improved productivity* and a resulting stream of net
benefits that therefore increases directly with city size.
20
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Another well-established principle in economics is that, given
well-functioning markets, the price of any capital asset will equal
the present value of the anticipated future stream of net benefits
over the useful life of the asset. Thus, summing over the properties
within any metropolitan area, aggregate property values should pro-
vide a first approximation of the stream of net benefits expected to
accrue to land users within that area, and a means of estimating the
effects of economics of agglomeration on those benefits. In other
words, the market for land and property within urban areas should
capture and express the net benefits of urban growth and size.
If this is so, then one question that arises is whether, if
urban form affects land use, the stream of net benefits varies with
differences in urban form. Urban planners frequently argue, for
example, that disorderly urban sprawl destroys property values. A
second question is whether these benefits are reduced by environmental
pollution. Both economies and diseconomies of agglomeration will
come into play with increasing metropolitan size. New activities pro-
vide additional opportunities for specialization or integration of
activities or improved quality of information. These can be either
pecuniary or physical external economies in production or consumption.
If there are scale economies in provision of public services, addi-
tional population gives rise to decreasing average costs of services,
which will result in a higher quality of services per tax dollar.
21
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At the same time, diseconomies of agglomeration will result from con-
gestion and pollution, or from decreasing returns to scale In the
public service sector.
A series of empirically-testable propositions arise from the
foregoing:
(1) Aggregate property values and total population
should move systematically together, In the
absence of net economies or diseconomies of
agglomeration, in a linear fashion.
(2) If there are net economies of agglomeration
over some size range, property values should
Increase more than proportionally with popu-
lation.
(3) With net diseconomies, property values should
increase less than proportionally with popu-
lation, and if diseconomies become suffici-
ently severe, property values should actually
decline as population increases.
(4) If there are increasing returns to city size,
followed by decreasing returns, aggregate
property values should Increase In an S-shaped
logistic pattern with respect to population,
and it should then be possible to identify
that point at which average land value per
person Is maximized, the population size which
Is optimal in an economic sense for all cities
In the system In the long run, as well as
that point (the lower inflection point) at which
the marginal increment In land value from an
incremental change in population Is maximized.
This latter point Is that size at which the
marginal contribution of population to land
values is largest In the short run.
(5) To the extent that manufacturing concentrations
increase environmental pollution and environ-
mental quality Is better in higher-Income com-
munities, these variables should account for a
significant portion of the variance from (1).
22
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(6) If the dispersed ctty, holding constant city
characteristics, produces a land use mix deliv-
ering lower environmental quality, this should
be reflected in appropriate statistically-sig-
nificant partial relationships of urban form
and aggregate land values.
In testing these propositions, the dependent variable, total
property values, was derived from assessment data In the 196?
Census of Governments, with adjustments made to the market value
using the assessment ratios in that publication. The independent
variables that were used are those listed in the previous section.
Figure k plots the observed property values against metropolitan
population. Our interest centered, first, on the shape of this
relationship, and-then on the sources of variability including the
possible contributions of urban form and environmental pollution to
the variance.
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FIGURE k
AGGREGATE PROPERTY VALUES RELATED
TO SMSA POPULATION
100
50
10
0.5
1 5
LOG POPULATION (IN MILLIONS)
10
Source of Data: 1967 Census of Government and
1970 Census -of Population
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After completing many multiple regression analyses the following
findings emerged: aggregate property values and metropolitan size
increase in a highly correlated manner (elasticity* in the range 0.85
to 0.89), but are depressed by manufacturing concentrations (elasti-
city -0.37 to -0.45) and assume much higher levels in higher-income
cities (elasticity 2.14 to 2.33). Some economists believe that to
the extent that median incomes reflect real-wage differentials, they
are the necessary "bribes" that must be-paid to attract and retain
»
the urban labor force in congested, polluted, inadequately serviced,
dangerous, and impersonal large cities. However, our results belie
this supposition; environmental quality was found to be much better
in higher-income cities than In lower-Income cities.
There were some negative conclusions, too. In particular, none
of the variables used to index levels of environmental pollution was
statistically significant in any of the regression models. Apparently,
once the effects of population size, manufacturing concentrations and
income levels had been taken into account, the main sources of varia-
tion in overall levels of environmental pollution also had been ac-
counted for I
Separate studies were made of different size-classes of cities,
and even within size classes, city size remained an important deter-
Elasticity is the percent change in the dependent variable resulting
from a 1 percent change in the Independent variable. For example^ in
this case, an elasticity of .85 means that aggregate property values
go up .85 percent for every one percent Increase in metropo11 tan\popu-
lation. \
25
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mlnant of property values, and manufacturing concentrations continued
to depress them. The most complex analyses explored whether the
relationship between property values and city size was straight-line
or S-shaped. The latter was found to be the case. Net agglomeration
economies were found to be present In urban regions up to a size of
2.5 millions, with maximum property values per capita In urban regions
of around 1 million people. However, progressively greater net dis-
economies of size were found to take their toll In metropolitan
regions between 2.5 millions and 6.0 millions In size. But Increasing
returns were found thereafter in the largest urban regions. Reiter-
ating earlier conclusions, variables representing levels of environ-
mental pollution added no explanation to this most complex model not
already provided by size, economic base and income levels. This means
that the effects of pollution, congestion and crime on the quality of
urban life show up (a) in the fact that the elasticity of property
values with respect to population size is less than one (property
values increase less rapidly than population; (b) in the fact that
the coefficient attached to manufacturing concentrations Is negative
(more manufacturing activity depresses property values), and (c) that
there is a self-selectivity reflected in the positive large relation-
ship of property values to Income levels.
There were, though, some significant relationships of property
values to the urban form variables. In particular, aggregate property
26
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values were found to be greater In lower-density (dispersed) urban
regions than in high-density (concentrated) urban centers. The rapid
continuing decentralization of American urban regions is consistent
with adjustments to urban form in response to these net benefits of
dispersion, thus confirming the thrust of the statistical conclusions.
B. Findings Related to Land Use Relationships
Regression models also were formulated and tested, using the
smaller sample set of 13 SMSA's, to determine, firstly, the relation-
ships between land use, city characteristics and urban form, and
secondly the relationships between environmental pollution and land use.
In the first case, each land use type was initially regressed
on such city characteristics as size, manufacturing concentrations,
etc., and then on these variables plus the urban form indicators. In
all cases except two, the amount of variation in the land use variable
explained by the equation more than doubled when the urban form indi-
cators were included in the equations, indicating that urban form
plays a significant role in translating city characteristics Into
land use. The exceptions are industrial land use and transport-com-
munication-utilities (TCU). In economic models, it is commonly assumed
that industrial location is determined by the role played by a city
in the national economy, and that TCU represents a key instrument
variable that may be used to shape land use, and the results of the
analyses certainly seemed to confirm this supposition that industry
27
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and transportation are determinants of urban structure rather than
being determined by It.
As for the other land uses, the Important Intervening role of
urban form In determining the urban land use mix was clear. For
example, the percentage of land used for residential purposes was
found to vary in the following ways: directly with SMSA population,
with a 1.0 percent change in population producing an 0.6 percent
change in the residential percentage; inversely with income levels;
and positively with manufacturing employment. The less-than-proporr-
tionate rate of increase of residential land use with city size is
commensurate with the fact that city area also increases at a slower
rate than urban population, producing increased residential densities,
and was borne out by an inverse relationship found to exist between
the residential percentage and the density ratio: the percentage of
residential land increases as the density ratio falls. Because the
density ratio falls when central city densities are high relative to
SMSA densities (i.e., a situation in which the population density
gradient* is relatively steep and the population of the urban area is
core-oriented), higher central city densities produce more intensive
land use and a relatively lower residential percentage.
* The density gradient charts the rate of decline of densities with
increasing distance from the city center. A steep gradient indicates
that densities drop very quickly; a shallow gradient indicates a much
more uniform population density pattern.
28
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The greatest elasticity of residential land use was found to be
with respect to median incomes; a 1.0 percent increase in incomes was
associated with a 2.1 percentage point decrease in residential land
use. The compensating factor apparently was open space: another
equation showed that the greater the median income of a community,
the greater the open space, commensurate with national attitudes
regarding the quality of life.
The intervening role of the three urban form variables revealed
the specific mechanics by which city characteristics are translated
into land use. A positive relationship was found between the residen-
tial percentage and the "degrees of arc" covered by a city. The
higher the degrees of arc, (i.e., the greater the approximation of
the city to a full circle around its center), the more area is avail-
able for residential development, and the more extensive is land use.
On the other hand, residential land use varies inversely with the
number of radial highways. Planners have advocated the use of a
radial urban design to cut down on urban sprawl. By concentrating
development along the radials or "fingers," and restricting the uses
of the "wedges" between these fingers, according to the argument, land
development might be confined to the easily accessible areas, occurring
at higher density and leaving more open space. The inverse relation-
ship shown here supports this argument, as does the positive relation-
ship between the residential percentage and the number of circumferential
highways. An Increased number of circumferentials promotes residen-
tial sprawl.
29
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What, then, are the mechanics of these urban form relationships
that have been suggested? What is indicated is that the demand for
urban land is determined by the role that the city plays in the
national economy. From such relationships arise the industry mix,
growth rate, size, and income levels of the urban region. Urban form
controls the supply of land of each access type available for develop-
ment. The greatest supply of land is delivered by a circular urban
region with many circumferential highway rings; such supply conditions
produce residential sprawl. On the other hand a radially-structured
urban region on a restricted site has higher residential densities, a
steeper density gradient, a lower residential land use percentage,
and more open space.
Similar relationships exist for the other land uses. The com-
mercial and extractive percentages increase with city size, are lower
where the density gradient is steep, decrease with community income
levels, and increase in manufacturing cities. They Increase as the
urban form approaches circularity, decrease in a radial structure and
increase with the number of circumferentials.
Conversely, open space decreases with city size, manufacturing
concentrations, and circumferential structure, increases with income
levels, where the density gradient Is steep, and with the number of
radials, and — the only surprise — decreases as the degrees of arc
Increase. But a moment's reflection eliminates even that surprise.
30
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Departures from circularity are usually environmentally-determined by
lakes and seashore, rivers and mountains, and where such environmental
amenities exist, there has been effort to preserve them as open space.
The final step in this phase of the analysis was to relate environ-
mental pollution to land use. Each of the air and water quality vari-
ables was regressed directly on the city characteristics and indicators
of urban form, with very mixed results. When, however, these same
variables were related to the land use variables instead, highly signi-
ficant results emerged, thus confirming the general logic of the con-
ceptual sequence diagrammed in Figure 1. Apparently, urban forms are
expressed in environmental pollution through the intervening role of
land use, just as urban form, in turn, translates city characteristics
into land use. Basically, size, manufacturing concentrations and low
incomes, combined with urban configurations that permit extensive
sprawl, produce land use mixes that have associated with them the
greatest environmental pollution.
C. Comparison with Intra-Metropolltan
Property Value Studies
One question about the foregoing macro-scale conclusions (i.e.
findings related to metropolitan regions as a whole) is how they
relate to micro-scale conclusions about the effects of environmental
pollution on property values. For samples of individual properties
within particular cities, many recent investigators have found that
31
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property values decline as environmental pollution increases. Why
should this fact not be reflected at the macro-scale of the foregoing
inquiry? The answer is that the individual effects are present in
all cities, varying in the magnitude of their incidence with city size,
with the scale of manufacturing concentrations, and with income levels.
They are thus accounted for by these latter variables in the macro-
scale equations, which say that when the size-, manufacturing- and
income-related compoaents of overall environmental pollution have been
accounted for, there are no additional relationships between environ-
mental pollution and property values that'are discernible. The dif-
ference in conclusions Is one arising from differences in the scale
of analysis, and in no way implies that one set of conclusions con-
tradicts the others.
32
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VI. INTRA-METROPOLITAN ANALYSES
A variety of exploratory and experimental studies of land use-
environmental pollution relationships also were undertaken within
metropolitan regions after first providing a detailed review, for
»
each pollutant, of patterns of pollutant sources within metropolitan
regions, generation factors, diffusion, dispersion and transport
mechanisms, etc., consistent with the flow of causation diagrammed
in Figure 2. No attempt was made to achieve comprehensiveness or
completeness, because of the limitations inherent in the data sources,
Rather, the intent was to investigate potentially fruitful lines of
inquiry. Two of these lines will be noted here, because of their
different links to urban form: (a) relationships of air pollution
to urban densities; and (b) patterns of water quality in a complex
hydrologic situation.
A. Sample Density Relations
It is known that population densities within urban regions drop
off with distance from the city center in a negative exponential
manner (dx = D e~^x) where dx is population density at distance x
from the city center, DC is density at the city center, and B is the
density gradient, the rate at which densities fall with increasing
distance.
33
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Such density gradients were fitted to data obtained for each of
the 13 sample regions for the censuses of 1950, I960, and 1970. It
was found that in each census year, larger cities have higher central
densities and flatter density gradients, whereas in all cities in the
20-year period, central densities have been declining in absolute terms
and density gradients have been becoming flatter as urban dencentral-
ization has progressed.
The question that then was posed was whether air pollution showed
similar gradient patterns and changes. In several cases, it was found
that a similar equation descrf-bes the spatial pattern of air pollution,
but comparable data were unavailable to relate unfolding urban decen-
tralization to changes in the pattern of air pollution.
Some experimentation also took place with both solid wastes and
noise data, and it was found that these, too, were density-related,
suggesting that they might be profitably subjected to density-gradient
analysis as better data become available in the future.
34
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VII. SUMMARY
To summarize, the following are some of the main principal conclusions
of the statistical analyses presented in Land Use, Urban Form and Environ-
mental duality:
FINDINGS FROM MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
WITH PROPERTY VALUES AS
THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE
1. Property Values:
a. Increase with metropolitan size
b. Decrease with manufacturing concentration
c. Increase with high-income population
2. Environmental quality is better in high-income
cities than in low-income cities.
3. When population size, manufacturing concentration,
and income level are taken into account, differ-
ential environmental pollution levels have no effect
on property values.
4. When cities were grouped by population size, popu-
lation size still affected property values in a
positive fashion and manufacturing affected property
values in a negative fashion for cities within a
group.
5. The relationship between property values and city
size follows an S-shaped curve, which means that
for small and large city sizes, a change in city size
produces a larger Increase in property values than is
true of medium city sizes.
6. Total property values are greater in low-density dis-
persed urban regions than in high-density concentra-
ted regions, when population size, manufacturing
concentrations and income levels are taken into
account.
35
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FINDINGS FROM MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSES
WITH LAND USE AS THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE
1. Urban form plays a significant role in translating
city characteristics into land use.
2. Land use plays a significant role in expressing the
effects of urban.form on environmental pollution.
3. Residential land use:
a. Increases with metropolitan size
b. Decreases with Income levels
c. Increases with manufacturing employment
d. Decreases in high-density core-oriented cities
e. Increases as the city area increases and as
the number of circumferential highways in-
creases i.e. as urban sprawl increases in
dispersed urban regions
4. Other land uses:
a. Commercial and extractive land use
- increases with city size
- decreases when the density gradient Is steeper
- decreases with Income levels
- increases with manufacturing concentrations
b. Open space
- decreases with city size
- decreases with manufacturing concentrations
- increases with income levels
- increases when the density gradient is steeper
36
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SELECTED WATER
RESOURCES ABSTRACTS
INPUT TRANSACTION FORM
Repo > No.
w
4. Title
Land Use Forms and the Environment - An Executive Summary
.1 I
>*yy
Department of Geography and Center for Urban Studies
University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois
5. Report Date
8. Perfo.. >ing Or£
P. -port Nc
1HA098
12. Sponsoring Organiutioa
15. Snpplcmenur> Not->
Eaviromental Protection Agency
Environmental Protection Agency
Report No. EPA-600/5-75-003, March 1975
801419
Type of Report and
Penod Le
Final
16 Abstract
This executive summary contains highlights of the full study which focused on
the relationship between land use forms and environmental quality. It investigated
the influence of the spatial distribution of land rises on the pollutants generated
and the resulting environmental quality. The investigation was assisted by the
preparation of a "sorting table" in which the "rows" are the various urban forms and
land use patterns and the "columns" are the several classes, types and elements of
environmental pollution.
A comparative analysis of the materials assembled for the table determined trends
across the urban forms and land use types, focusing particularly on the identification
of those land use forms that naturally generate the least pollution. Also, parallel
Investigation of national trends in population distribution and land use was performed,
so that some expectations could be developed as to the likely impacts on pollution of
current patterns of regional growth and change.
la I)ec..riptOK
17b. Idenlilicrs
17c. COWS R. Held &. Group
18. Volatility
,9. Security dan.
(Report)
20. Security Class.
21. No. of
Pages
27. Puce
Send To:
WATER RESOURCES SCICMTtmC INFORMATION COTTER
U.S. OKMRTMCNT OP THC INTERIOR
WASHINGTON. OJG. Mt4O
Au-tracti-i
WRSIC 102 (REV. JUNE 1971)
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