AN ANTHOLOGY OF
SELECTED READINGS
FOR THE SYMPOSIUM ON
THE "QUALITY OF LIFE" CONCEPT
A POTENTIAL NEW TOOL FOR DECISION-MAKERS
August 29, 30 and 31
At
Airlie House
Warrenton, Virginia
«,
Sponsored by
The
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Monitoring
Environmental Studies Division
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PREFACE
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PREFACE
The National Environmental Policy Act mandates the Federal
Government to take action:
... "in protecting and enhancing the quality
of the Nation's environment to sustain and
enrich human life"
Improving the "quality of life" has become an increasingly
urgent national goal that is commanding the attention not only of
environmentalists, but also of economists, sociologists, psycholo-
gists, administrators, and others at all levels of government and
in many areas of the private sector.
Major programs have been launched to improve the quality
of life of Americans. A massive commitment of funds has been
made in the name of that goal. Daily, governmental decision
makers are establishing policy and programs, and allocating
resources in ways that significantly impact the quality of life of
different types of people in different ways.
And yet, the concept that inspires this activity, remains
largely undefined. While there is increasing recognition that the
concept of quality of life involves complex interrelationships and
tradeoffs among economic, social, and environmental considera-
tions, the means of dealing with these factors, as yet, elude us.
The Environmental Studies Division, Office of Research and
Monitoring, Environmental Protection Agency is making an effort
to improve the tools available to decision makers who are necessarily
involved in "quality of life" delivery systems. This effort includes
sponsoring a symposium on the subject "The Quality of Life Concept—
A Potential New Tool for Decision Makers. " The symposium is
being held at Airlie House in Warrenton, Virginia on August 29-31,
1972. The objective of the symposium is to explore the "Quality of
Life" (QOL) concept, to define QOL in terms of its components, and
to develop suggested quantitative approaches to its use in guiding
public policy.
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This anthology which is also part of the EPA effort presents
some background perspectives for the consideration of the partici-
pants prior to the symposium. The selected readings deal with the
QOL concept in general as well as from the more specific perspec-
tives of different disciplines--environmental, economic, social,
and psychological. The articles represent varying approaches and
levels of consideration and were selected to serve as a general
"briefing" for participants rather than as a review of the literature
in the field.
The development of the quality of life concept into a form
decision makers can use is a necessary part of the effort to carry
out the policy declared in the National Environmental Policy Act:
"to foster and promote the general welfare,
to create and maintain conditions under which
man and nature can exist in harmony, and
fulfill the social, economic, and other re-
quirements of present and future generations
of Americans"
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THE QOL CONCEPT
SYMPOSIUM PLANNING GROUP
CONTRIBUTORS
John Abbott, Executive Director, California Tomorrow
Harold S. Becker, Director of Programs, The Futures Group
Alfred Heller, President, California Tomorrow
David Holtz, Staff Officer, National Academy of Sciences
Kenneth F. Hornback, Research Associate, EPA Fellow
Lester Lees, Director, Environmental Quality Laboratory,
California Institute of Technology
Mancur Olson, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland
Guy J. Pauker, Research Associate, Environmental Quality Laboratory,
California Institute of Technology
Robert W. Shaw, Jr., Project Scientist, Booz, Allen Public Administration
Services, Inc.
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Stanley M. Greenfield, Assistant Administrator for Research and Monitoring
Leland D. Attaway, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research
Peter W. House, Director, Environmental Studies Division
Philip Patterson, Deputy Director, Environmental Studies Division
John Gerba, Chief, Exploratory Research Branch
Alan Neuschatz, Chief, Environmental Management Research Branch
Martin Redding, Chief, Ecosystems Research Branch
Kathryn Cousins, Urban Planner, Environmental Studies Division
Robert Livingston, Research Analyst, Environmental Studies Division
Albert Pines, Operations Research Analyst, Environmental Studies Division
QOL CONFERENCE COORDINATORS
Edward L. Bartholomew, Senior Associate, Booz, Allen Public Administration
Services, Inc.
Edward F. R. Hearle, Vice President, Booz, Allen Public Administration
Services, Inc.
Margo A. Moore, Administrative Assistant, Booz, Allen Public Administration
Services, Inc.
Mary B. O'Brien, Consultant, Booz, Allen Public Administration Services, Inc.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Number
PREFACE
SYMPOSIUM PLANNING GROUP
I. DEFINING "QUALITY OF LIFE1' MEASURES -
THE STATE-OF-THE-ART 1-1
II. THE "QUALITY OF LIFE11 CONCEPT
Measuring the Quality of Life
by Richard D. James II-1
"Quality of Life" Needs More Emphasis
An Excerpt From the Report of the
White House Conference on Youth
Hopes and Fears of the American
People by Albert H. Cantril and
Charles W. Roll, Jr. 11-10
III. QOL: ENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVES
Our Environment: Controls and Costs
by S. Fred Singer III-l
Policy Measures for the Environment
by Harvey S. Perloff III-7
The Concept of Amenity Resources
by Arthur A. Atkinson and Ira M.
Robinson III-15
A Description of an Environmental
Evaluation System by Ira L. Whitman 111-20
et al.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Page
Number
IV. QOL: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES
Toward Balanced Growth: Quantity With
Quality, A Summary of the Report to the
President by the National Goals Research
Staff IV-1
Welfare Measurement and the GNP
by Edward F. Denison IV-16
Toward a Social Report: Introduction
and Summary, U. S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare IV-28
V. QOL: PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES
A Hierarchy of Needs and Values
by Graham T. T. Molitor V-l
Moving Beyond Maslow: Clare Graves'
Levels of Existence Theory by
Peter J. Jessen V-8
Quality of Life by Norman C. Dalkey V- 19
The Delphi Procedure and Rating Quality
of Life Factors by Norman C. Dalkey and
Daniel L. Rourke V-30
SUGGESTED READINGS
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I. DEFINING "QUALITY OF LIFE" MEASURES -
THE STATE OF THE ART
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DEFINING "QUALITY OF LIFE" MEASURES -
THE STATE OF THE ART
The quality of life in America has in recent years become the
subject of increasing and widespread concern. This concern is be-
ing expressed in terms of a number of diverse perspectives. Life
style groupings such as affluent youth, ghetto youth, the poor, the
feminist movement, the aged, and blue collar workers view "quality
of life" in terms of their particular values and life experience. Dif-
ferent disciplines such as economics, sociology, environmental sci-
ences, and psychology--have tended to approach the issue of "quality
of life" in terms of their respective characteristic perspectives.
As society attempts to respond to quality of life concerns, it
confronts the interrelated and often conflicting group values from
different interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches.
The "quality of life" (QOL) concept has received increasing
attention as the focal point of converging economic, social and en-
vironmental considerations. Serious attempts are being made to
develop the concept into a useful tool for decision makers in the pub-
lic and private sectors. This has involved attempts to:
Define the concept in terms of its constituent com-
ponents and factors
Develop indicators to measure the state of each
QOL component for a given demographic group or
geographic entity
Relate the indicators to relevant quality standards
and aggregate them into a single QOL index or at
least into a set of weighted multiple QOL indices,
and finally--
Relate an overall QOL concept and QOL quantifica-
tion techniques to the policy and program decisions
of government
This document is an attempt to summarize the current state
of the above efforts. The following sections discuss: the history of
attempts to define and quantify "quality of life"; the state-of-the-art
from the perspectives of different disciplines; and considerations
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related to varying life styles and socio-economic population group-
ings. The problems involved in measuring QOL are also discussed.
ATTEMPTS TO DEFINE AND MEASURE QOL
For many years, economic indicators such as the Gross
National Product and the Consumer Price Index have been the pri-
mary measures of "progress" available to decision makers. In-
creasingly, however, decision makers are being challenged to pro-
duce change that improves the "quality of life" in a social as well as
an economic sense.
Historically, attempts to define and measure "quality of life"
have focused primarily on social indicators. Significant efforts in
the field of social indicators date back before 1897 when Emile Dur-
Rheims monumental study, Suicide was published. Later in 1939,
E. L. Thorndike in Your City used thirty-nine different indicators
to produce a "general goodness" index. The index was used to eval-
uate conditions in a number of American cities.
The concept of social indicators as a tool for social change
gained momentum in the late 60's. A growing body of literature
opened new chanels for discussion and growth in this field. Signi-
ficant works on the subject appeared in two monographs, Toward
a Social Report,* published by the Department of Health, Education
and Welfare in 1969 and later Toward Social Reporting: Next Steps2
by Otis Dudley Duncan. These joined other notable works in the
literature including: Social Indicators edited by Raymond Bauer in
1966; Social Intelligence for America's Future"* edited by Bertram
Gross in 1969; and Indicators of Social Change edited by Eleanor
B. Shelden and Wilbert E. Rose. A recent book, The'Human Mean-
ing of Social Change^ by Angus Campbell and Phillip Converse has
added new insights especially as to the social psychological aspects
of the problem.
In an era of urban planning and development, a number of
important studies have been conducted in major metropolitan areas
regarding the quality of life within the urban environment. A re-
cent study undertaken by the Urban Institute of "The Quality of Life
in Metropolitan Washington, D.C. " was published in 1970. The
study used twelve indicators to make comparisons between eighteen
large urban areas.
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An ongoing study of New York uses urban, economic,, social,
environmental and some general indicators to measure the quality
of life. Major categories for which indicators have been developed
on the studies of New York and Washington include:
Income
Unemployment
Poverty
Housing (costs)
Education
Health
Mental Health
Environmental Quality
Public Order/Crime
Traffic Safety
Racial Equality
Community Concern
Re venue/Taxation
Welfare and Social Services
These studies were directed at urban decision makers."a»b, c
Another current effort of significance is a two-year study by
the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research of the
University of Michigan. The primary objectives of the study are
to develop a valid and efficient way to measure the range of life
qualities and to learn something about the key factors contributing
to a better life as understood by a representative sample of the
American public. The research effort is supported by the National
Science Foundation.
The Michigan team will measure the relevance of a particular
concern to an individual, the individual's expectations with regard
to that concern, and the individual's conception of change--past,
present, and future. The examination of the effect of changing per-
ceptions over time is of considerable importance in arriving at a
quality of life index useful to government policy-makers.
The National Wildlife Federation has developed an environment
quality index which is based on weighted percentage values for seven
factors: soil, water, air, living space, minerals, timber and wild-
life. An "E.Q. Index" has been published annually since 1969. The
E.Q. Index represents an important step towards an inclusive
quality of life index.
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The growing concern in the U.S. for identifying the compon-
ents and measures of quality of life have led to a number of recent
conferences. An example was a symposium arranged by Dr. Fred
S. Singer of the University of Virginia entitled: "Can We Develop
An Index for the Quality of Life? " The symposium addressed the
feasibility and methodology of developing an index for quality of
life. The issues discussed included: the components of quality of
life; the measurement of identified components; the handling of non-
qualifiable components; and the conversion of national income agg-
regate such as GNP into an index for quality of life.
The expanding concern with quality of life has led to an increas-
ing interest in the tools of measurement within the U. S. Government.
The Office of Management and Budget is currently compiling a docu-
ment for publication in 1973, tentatively entitled Social Indicators.
The purpose of the OMB effort is to present available statistics to
facilitate an understanding of social conditions and change in the
U. S. There is little agreement on one general instrument of meas-
urement. Nevertheless, a consolidation of current information in
the field of social indicators is considered useful as a first step in
developing the QOL concept as a potential new tool for decision
makers.
PERSPECTIVES OF DIFFERENT DISCIPLINES
Attempts to measure societal conditions have been undertaken
from the standpoint of several major disciplines including economics,
sociology, psychology, and the environmental sciences. Each has. its
own understanding of how values and ideals should be defined and
manifested in the laws, norms and sanctions of society. The crucial
concern regarding quality of life cannot be adequately evaluated, with-
out an understanding of these various values perspectives.
The Economic Perspectives
Since Copernicus and Descares, Western man's thought
has tended toward that of a mechanical universe which can be
experienced and measured scientifically. Anything which
could not be measured scientifically was either ignored or
viewed with suspicion. Building upon these thinkers, Bentham
created the economic principle of the greatest good for the
greatest number, not recognizing that human nature is more
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complex than the simple summation of pleasures and pains.
The most ardent school of positivist economics is identified
with Milton Friedman. This view draws a distinct line bet-
ween positive or purely scientific economics and normative
economics concerned with social goals. This school does not
consider values to be necessary for any positive analysis of
economic questions.
For economists in general, the methodology has empha-
sized quantity as opposed to quality. The stress has been on
technical analysis, concentrating on input-output studies,
econometrics, operations research, game theory, and linear
or mathematical programming. The knotty problems of human
action and behavior have not been addressed to any great ex-
tent. Economics has paid little attention until recent times to
the fact that such concepts as production and distribution, goods
and services, commodities and performances, are related to the
human actors who control them and who, in part, are controlled
by them.
The concept of economic indicators as instruments for
controlling economic fluctuations and maintaining economic
growth was nurtured by the depression. Economic prosperity
became the major measure of the overall well-being of socie-
ties and nations. In Agenda for the Nation, 8 the Brookings Insti-
tution characterized the trend as: "prosperity as a solvent of
social ills has been a chimera -- that GNP has turned out to be
a small god. "
Widespread social unrest and the questioning of the legiti-
macy of certain traditional institutions stimulated a major re-
examination of socioeconomic, environmental and behavioral
phenomena in other than the economic context. 9
The Social Perspective
Sociology has provided a number of useful lenses through
which the quality of life concept may be viewed: class, race,
ethnicity, values, matters of "ultimate concern, " etc. Many
policy analysts and decision makers often forget that their back-
grounds as to race, ethnicity, life style, etc--their value base--
greatly influences their "scientific" approach to the develop-
ment of indicators that will measure the quality of life.
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The sociologist has brought to our attention the fact that
contemporary man is the first to be provided with discretion-
ary leisure time. Is it a blessing or a curse? For those with-
out the resources to engage in the activities they desire, it is
often seen as a curse.
We can measure the importance of leisure time by quan-
tifying the leisure time available and the participation levels
in various leisure-time activities, but such quantification does
not measure resultant levels of satisfaction or well-being.
To generalize, the sociologist can be said to approach
the quality of life concept from a group, institutional or soc-
ietal perspective, whereas the psychologist approaches it from
the personal or individual perspective. Nonetheless, the socio-
logist would still have to ask whether we should approach the
question, "what is life all about?" collectively or individually.
The sociologist also provides a long list of questions directly
related to methodologies for measuring the quality of life. The
sociologist might ask: How do people make sense of and de-
fine reality? What "ought to be" (normative) and what "is"
(cognitive)? How do religious norms relate to economics?
What is the place of motivation? What is the relationship be-
tween people's actions and their normative expression? How
do differing sets of collective consciousness relate to each
other in an overwhelmingly pluralistic society? How does the
matrix of norms and interests effect people's behavior, both
as citizens and as policy makers/analysts? Is there a balanced
view of reality through which a comprehensive explanation of
human experience can be made by both individuals and society
as a whole? How does one approach the ultimate meaning of
human experience with all the subtle complexities of human
conduct ?
Thus, in attempting to measure the quality of life, the
sociologist is at the forefront of the development of social in-
dicators which accomplish this measurement. In developing
such social indicators, the sociologist must address the fact
that society is a community of individual and collective mean-
ings. These must be taken into account and quantified. In the
attempt to quantify quality of life through social indicators, the
results often suffer from confusion between ends and means
(or output and input) and the distinction between the two which
is often ignored.
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However, even the term "social indicator" is yet to be
fully defined, conceptually or theoretically, although all would
agree that it represents some measure of well-being or "quality
of life. "
The debate in which sociologists find themselves centers
upon whether the demands for social information can be made
relevant to public policy decisions. On one side of the debate
are those who would use such indicators to help establish soc-
ial goals and priorities, to evaluate public programs, and to
develop a system of social accounts for providing guidance
among alternative interventions. The other side of the debate
is simply that such cannot be done.
The Psycological Perspective
c
In The Human Meaning of Social Change, Campbell and
Converse devote a chapter to "Aspiration, Satisfaction, and
Fulfillment. " Certainly, these terms convey the full force of
the meaning of "quality" for modern life. Campbell and Con-
verse discuss quality of life from the standpoint of personal
experience, which means frustrations, satisfactions, disap-
pointments, and fulfillment all from the eye of the beholder.
They assume that "satisfaction and dissatisfaction are exper-
iences that most people can report with reasonable validity".
Campbell goes onto say that,"The revolution of rising expecta-
tions will go beyond the demand for better housing and cleaner
air to the requirement of a fuller life. " But how is this state
to be achieved, let alone measured? Campbell does not
answer this question.
One of the difficulties in discussing the quality of life is
that little is known about the relationship between attitudes and
behavior. The discipline of psychology addresses this rela-
tionship. Many of the methodologies used to explore the rela-
tionship between attitudes and behavior involves hierarchy of
needs theories. The most famous is that of^Abaraham Maslow
presented in "Motivation and Personality".1* Maslow approaches
the perspective of individual needs and values with a well de-
veloped five level (or stages) "needs hierarchy. " The five
levels in ascending order are: physiolocial (or survival);
safety/security; social, ego; self-fulfillment (or self-actual-
ization).
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A more recent theory is the eight level open ended
theory of Clare Graves. *•* For Graves, the turmoil (personal,
organization, nation-wise) is due to the transition process of
moving from one "need" level to another. ) A difficulty with
the Maslow scale is that at the highest level, self actualiza-
tion, the theory cannot be applied to organizations--only to
individuals. The Graves approach can be applied to both.
Maslow is actually a positivist, for, with the last level,
one has "arrived" and there is no more development. Graves,
on the other hand, sees the situation in different terms: that
growth and development are endless, open, and continuous. Also,
with Graves it is not necessary to attempt to achieve the top
level. This is important in discussing quality of life, aspira-
tions, satisfaction, happiness, etc. The Graves theory, then,
becomes not a standard by which one compares oneself in the
drive to "the top, " but rather a tool to enable people to better
manage their relationships with others. The same would apply
to organizations, institutions, nations, etc.
A person's or organization's level can be discovered
through a series of questions, the answers to which provide
the indication of level. The potential ramification of Graves'
theory in the area of measuring quality of life is enormous.
Because survival needs have been met by the vast maj-
ority of the population, it is the higher needs that dominate in
our affluent society. This often appears in the frantic search
for new goals, heroes, and purposes, with which to, in Toffler's
phrase, "cope with the future. " Pervading most people's
quest for their vision of "quality of life" is a sense of meaning,
of individual worth, a feeling that their lives are significant, a
sense, therefore, of personal satisfaction and fulfillment, and
the knowledge that personal growth can continue.
The Environmental Perspective
The environmental sciences attempt to integrate the
knowledge of the physical sciences with the perspectives of
economics, sociology, and psychology. The environmentalists
attempt to relate the environment and the impact of man-made
changes to the quality of life.
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A number of social concerns can be identified when ap-
proaching the environment from the perspective of quality of
life: the continued support of man by the ecological systems
as we know them today; the availability of suitable land,
particularly for agricultural and recreational use; and an ad-
equate supply of air and water in suitable quality to support
all forms of life. Included in these categories would be wild-
life, areas of natural beauty, and recreation areas. It is
difficult, given the present state of the art, to interpret these
environmental indicators in terms of human welfare.
Certain indicators of quality of life can be cited as pos-
sible beginning points in determining environmental quality
in terms of human welfare: the extent of air pollution and the
number and percent of persons experiencing air pollution at
levels hazardous to health (including the level of pollutants in
the air of a given area by type); a comparison of different areas
in terms of air quality; the number of polluted bodies of water
and the number of persons living within certain radii of the
polluted bodies; the numbers of bodies of water and percentage
of given rivers and streams in terms of specified pollution
levels hazardous to health.
The mandate spelled out by the National Environmental
Policy Act not only relates the environment directly to the
concept of quality of life but also provides for the Federal
Government to exercise leadership "in protecting and enhanc-
ing the quality of the Nation's environment to sustain and en-
rich human life. " In so doing, the Council on Environmental
Quality was authorized to "promote the development of indices
and monitoring systems. . .to determine the effectiveness of
programs for protecting and enhancing environmental quality. "
The dependence of man's quality of life on the quality of the
environment is made quite clear'in the statement exhorting
all levels of government to "promote the general welfare, (and)
to create and maintain conditions under which man and nature
can exist in productive harmony. "
However, without the effort being made to raise the
quality of life of all people, no harmony can be possible betwe-
en man and environment. People cannot be expected to be con-
cerned about either cultural enrichment or the aesthetic values
of their surroundings if their quality of life does not fulfill the
basic needs, wants, and desires for food, shelter and clothing.
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A wide range of policy issues, both domestic and international,
that .relate to the environment may well be determined by con-'
siderations based on what man considers an adequate level of
quality of life. For instance, a major build up of carbon dio-
xide in the atmosphere could seriously alter the world's cli-
mate by creating a "hot house" effect. Although Americans
consider an automobile a part of their quality of life, export-
ing this ideal of quality to China, with its 800, 000, 000 people,
could be inimical to the quality of life due to the potential car-
bon dioxide emissions that would result.
Another consideration involves the food chain. Will the
dumping of wastes in the oceans, plus the world-wide distribu-
tion of mercury in the various water ways getting into the fish,
seriously endanger the biosphere and the eco-cycle? What
will be the effect of unrestrained population growth: starva-
tion, disease, catastrophic war? How can we measure, in
advance, the potential danger to the environment, and thus to
man, of massive oil spills, whether in the oceans, lakes, or
northland tundra? How will environmental policies which
effect: population, distribution; conservation of water re-
sources and wilderness areas; use of coastal land areas;
wildlife; thermal pollution from power and processing plants;
air pollution from moving sources of emission; materials re-
covery and solid waste management; the use and residdue of
persistent chemicals, and so on enhance the quality of the
environment and in turn the quality of life of human beings.
Of vital interest to all concerned with the environment
and the preservation of life, is the linkage between certain
environmental factors and the factors relating to man's sense
of what represents for him quality of life.
Joseph L. Fisher, President of Resources for the
Future is concerned about the more subjective problems of
individual and social welfare that must be taken into account
in establishing goals and indicators for environmental quality.13
He notes that most "environmental-quality indicators" in use
NOTE: Thor Hyerdahl stated that in the Ra, not a day passed
when they did not have to "battle" the debris they encountered,
which was opposite of the experience of crossing in the Kon
Ti-Ki 20 years earlier.
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in the late sixties were not directly relevant or meaningful
for social welfare as most people think of it. He suggests
that perhaps the basic indicator for social welfare should be
one dealing with "net social benefits" (ie., benefits minus
costs or losses in some sense) that would result from selected
interrelated measures to achieve acceptable levels of water or
air quality. He calls for environmentalists to engage with
social statisticians, medical scientists, industrial, agricul-
tural, and sanitary engineers, economists, sociologists., ad-
ministrators, and others, in research and development on
indicators of the various environmental trends regarding pol-
lution and their effect on people.
PERSPECTIVES OF DIFFERENT LIFE STYLES
Each life style grouping whether made distinctive by class, age,
interest, economic level, education, or a combination thereof, tends
to define "quality of life" in different terms than others. Each has
its own value base. Such differences are heightened by demographic
and geographic considerations. Add to these life style considerations,
the pluralism of American society and the challenge of creating ac-
ceptable quality of life measures becomes readily apparent. Such
diferse interests and view points can best be illustrated by concentrat-
ing, for the sake of illustration, upon some of the major categories
of class and stage in the life cycle which influence the various de-
finitions of "quality of life. " Such categories are discussed in this
section and include: youth and the aged; racial and ethnic perspec-
tives; blue collar and white collar workers, the poor and the
affluent.
Youth and the Aged
The contrast between youth and the aged in a country
that worships youth can be felt in the phrase often used for
oldsters: the "unwanted generation. " As more and more pro-
grams are developed to cater to the young, the elderly are
gradually, but continually being devalued and excluded. Youth
in the student movements of the West have played increasingly
important cultural and political roles, particularly in the past
decade (in contrast to the diminishing role played by the elderly).
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The term "youth culture" is a term that has gained
currency only during the past decade. 14 Today the term has
connotations not only as evidence of the massive opposition
of youth to the social-cultural status quo, but also as the har-
binger of the future society. These latter views can be seen
in such works as Kenneth Keniston's The Uncommitted,
Theodore Roszak's The Making of a Counter Culture, and
Charles Reich's The Greening of. America. Little such atten- .
tion is paid the elderly.
Yet both groups are remarkably alike. Both groups are
at the extremes of the age pyramid, are largely unemployed,
introspective, bodies and psyches in greater process of change,
and heavy users of drugs. Time is an obsession with both
groups. But where youth is worshipped, the aged are avoided.
The aged are treated as a "lower class " while youth are treat-
ed as an "upper class. " After racism and sexism, the latest,
rapidly growing "-ism" is age-ism.
The implications for social indicators of quality of life
are significant. We now have the irony of medicine enabling
people to live longer at the same time technology has made
them non-productive. As this is the first time a society has
had to deal with so many aging, there are no models to follow.
The work in quality of life indicators may well help to focus
the problem of the aged more clearly in the future. Certainly,
despite the similarities between the young and the elderly,
what each would view as satisfying, producing of well-being,
and contributory to their quality of life would differ consider-
ably. Such differences would include such life facets as mus-
ic, entertainment, clothes, sexual practices, environmental
conditions and environmental surroundings available for re-
creation.
Class, Race and Ethnicity
Two concepts significant to the discussion yet, highly
confusing, are those of "class, and "race and ethnicity. "
Whether one discusses location of various economic housing
groupings, educational transportation policies, or quota sys-
tems for job hiring and school admission, both concepts are
relevant. Of the two concepts, however, class may be more
relevant. Parents want their children to live in neighborhoods
and go to schools with children of comparable class position.
Rightly or wrongly, quality of life may be defined in part by
partents as being able to shield their children from the social
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and cultural realities of lower-class life, which the parents
may have experienced personally. 15
Thus, for the different classes, an entirely different set
of quality of life indicators could be necessary. The cultural
differences between groups differing in socioeconomic status
(and race) can be discovered by using value choices made in
questionnaires given to people of different economic and racial
groups. Rokeach and Parker 16 found that differences between
the races disappeared when socioeconomic position is the same.
From the above we can speculate that differences be-
tween blue collar and white collar workers, between the poor
and the affluent, are matters of class and status reflected by
economic level. The implications for the complexity and dif-
ficulty in designing quality of life indicators is clear.
Life-style refers to the overall culture or way of life
of different groups in the society. With significant differences
existing between the life styles of different classes it is easy
to conclude that different strata of people live in different worlds.
How quality of life can th'us be described for each world, parti-
cularly from the standpoint of the ability of that world to bring
satisfaction and well-being to those within the strata, is a most
complex and, to some, disturbing question. How, in measur-
ing the differences in values of each of these life-style -classes,
(blue collar-white collar, poor-affluent) can diagnoses be made
regarding what is right and wrong with American society and,
hence, how can the formulation of viable policy alternatives
be facilitated effectively and efficiently? !
The next question that must be asked, regards the whole
matter of whether well-being according to theories of needs
hierarcy is to be measured materially or spiritually. Should
indicators measuring assets, income, basic services, social
mobility, education, political position, and status also meas-
ure satisfaction or both? This is a most difficult question
facing those who would develop accurate and meaningful social
indicators with which they can measure the quality of life.
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MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE
"Quality of Life" (QOL) is still primarily a rhetorical notion,
although it is voiced by a growing number of advocates from a var-
iety of interests and concerns. No one has yet figured out how to
measure this most elusive of concepts. The current literature,* '• '
however, makes it clear that the notion of QOL is deeply inbedded
in the body of thought related to social indicators.
Indicators to date have been used almost exclusively for pur-
poses of political or economic assessments and projections. The
discussion regarding quality of life is concerned in part with how
indicators can be developed which will measure the state, condition-
ing, changes and affects of the thought processes of people.
One of the difficulties in measuring quality of life as opposed
to economic or production factors, is that there are no "social
dollars" flowing throughout the system which can be counted at
critical points. The social "system" has vastly different character-
istics than the economic system. There are no social costs, prices,
incomes, and the like to which most social variables can be con-
verted given the current state of the art.
In considering measurement of quality of life, one must con-
tinually keep in mind that information and evaluation requirements
will change through time. Evaluation criteria will change because
values will change and knowledge will expand. Examples will help
to clarify these points. The state of knowledge at the 1960 White
House Conference on children indicated that children's welfare was
enhanced most if the mother devoted full time to them. Thus, wel-
fare policy directed aid toward .mothers who remained home, penaliz-
ing mothers who were employed. This was more than a matter of
economics. It was an attempt to encourage the single mother not to
work. In 1972 we see a complete change: now the emphasis is being
placed on day care centers so that mothers can work and not be home
with their children.
The subjective and objective conditions of quality of life
measures must be recognized and dealt with. By definition, objective
conditions are empirical and reproducible. Heads can be counted or
absolute scales can be applied. Census data and economic indicators
deal with the objective. Quality of life indicators, on the other hand,
may go beyond this and include the subjective. Subjective conditions
or factors are not reproducible with certainty. They must measure
feelings and attitudes. They must indicate the conditions and
1-14
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conditioning or "states of mind" of society and its citizens.
Quantitative methods can be used to determine the normative
character of such information. For instance, averages, medians,
modes, etc. , through all the measure of central tendency, can be
applied to determine how typical an attitude or value is among a
given population or "universe. " However, comparison of an attitude
or value held by one person with respect to a different attitude or
value held by someone else may not be valid.
Perhaps the measurement problem will not be eased until a
grand theoretical structure is completed, utilizing not a multi-
disciplinary approach but an inter-disciplinary approach. Neces-
sary, however,.is the condition of getting those representing the
various disciplines to complement each other. The anthropologist
is needed to provide solid cross-cultural pre-suppositions to the
underpinnings of the exercise. The psychologist, usually more
willing to tackle all-inclusive theories, is needed for his adventur-
ousness. The sociologist is needed to apply his special imagination
to the handling of ordinal and nominal data; the economist is needed
too, for who is more at home with sophisticated model building and
the use of mathematical techniques? The historian's adept extrac-
tion of the subtleties of meaning and the broader implications from
textual material is needed. Political scientists are needed to pro-
vide a better understanding of the relationship between research and
action. To truly grasp the handles on measuring quality of life, the
contributions and benefits of the various disciplines must be recogni-
zed and utilized.
1-15
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REFERENCES
1. U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
Toward a Social Report. U.S. Government Printing Office:
Washington, D. C. , January 1969.
2. Duncan, Otis Dudley. Toward Social Reporting: Next Steps.
New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1969.
3. Bauer, Raymond A. (Ed. ). Social Indicators. Cambridge:
MIT Press, 1966.
4. Gross, Bertram, Social Intelligence for America's Future.
New Jersey: Allynn and Bacon, Inc., 1969.
5. Sheldon, Eleanor and Wilbert E. Moore (Editors). Indicators
of Social Change. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1968.
6. Campbell, Angus and Philip Converse. The Human Meaning
of Social Change. New York Russell Sage Foundation, 1972.
7a. Research Analysis Corporation. Environmental Quality
Index--A Feasibility Study. County of San Diego, Environ-
mental Development Agency San Diego, California, June 1972.
7b. Berenyi, John (ed. ). The Quality of Life in Urban America--
New York City: A Regional and National Comparative Analysis.
7c. Jones, Martin V. and Michael J. Flax. The Quality of Life in
Metropolitan Washington, D. C. - Some Statistical Benchmarks.
The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C. , March 1970.
8. The Brookings Institution. Agenda for the Nation. 1968.
9. Kamrany, Nake M. and Alexander N. Christakis. Social
Indicators in Perspective, International Seminar on Ekistics
and the Future of Human Settlements, July 1969.
10. Terleckyj, Nestor E., "Measuring Possibilities of Social
Change". Looking Ahead, August 1970.
-------
11. Maslow, Abraham H. (Ed.) Motivation and Personality.
Harper-Row, New York, 19707" ~ '
12. Graves, Clare W. , W. I. Huntley, and Douglas B. La Bier.
"Personality Structure and Perceptual Readiness: An
Investigation of Their Relationship to Hypothesized Levels
of Human Existence, " mimeographed paper, May 1965.
[I!
13. Fisher, Joseph L. The Natural Environment The Annals
of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
May 1967.
14. Berger, Peter L. and Brigette Berger. Sociology: A Bio-
graphical Approach, Basic Books, Inc. New York.
15. Berger, Peter L. and Bridgette Berger. "The Assault on
Class" World View, June 1972.
16. Rokeach, Milton and Seymour Parker. "Values as Social
Indicators of Poverty and Race Relations in America",
The Annals of the Academy of Political and Social Science.
March 1970.
17. Mitchell, Arnold, Thomas J. Logothetti, and Robert E. Kantor.
An Approach to Measuring Quality of Life, Stanford Research
Institute, Menlo Park, California, September 1971.
18. Corning, Pater A. An Index for the Quality of Life. Paper
presented at the 138th meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science, December 1971.
19. Joyce, Robert E. "Systematic Measurement of the Quality of
Urban Life, Prerequisite to Management", from Seminar on
Management of the City, Research Analysis Corporation,
May 1971, pp. 69-86.
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II. THE "QUALITY OF LIFE" CONCEPT
-------
MEASURING THE QUALITY OF LIFE
Richard D. James
Richard D. James is a member of the Chicago Bureau
of the Wall Street Journal.
Reprinted from the Wall Street Journal of May 18, 1972;
Based on an account of the proceedings of symposium on
"Can We Develop An Index for the Quality of Life? " given
at the December 1971 Convention of the American Association
of the Advancement of Science.
-------
MEASURING THE QUALITY OF LIFE
Richard D. James
A topic of continuing debate these days is whether the quality
of life is improving or deteriorating. A vast range of issues now
confronting us bears on the matter, from ecology to crime., from
the youth culture to the Vietnam war.
The issue reaches business in the form of whether "more is
better, " Sicco Mansholt, president of the Common Market's exe-
cutive commission, touched on it recently when he remarked:
"I don't pay much attention to gross national product. In all our
states this has been something sacred, but it's the devil. We must
think instead in terms of the happiness of our people. "
As with many complex issues, there's no yardstick to tell
who's right. Are we better off? Certainly people are better edu-
cated. They have more leisure and better health. But we also have
rising rates of crime and divorce and more people using drugs.
One wishes for some easy way to settle the matter, a clock,
perhaps, that would count out human happiness, much as the clock
at the Department of Commerce counts out our gross national prod-
uct. Little wonder then that one finds more and more attempts to
devise some such measure, a gross national happiness index, an
index of the quality of life.
THE ECONOMIST MAGAZINE
The Economist Magazine of London took a stab at it not long
ago. It compiled an index for 14 countries according to what it
considered 15 important social indicators, including such things
as car ownership, divorce, economic growth and the ratio of tele-
vision sets and telephones to people.
If a high rate of divorce was considered to contribute to a
better life, then the U. S. ranked first with an index of 457.
Sweden ranked second with 336 and Canada third with 264. If
divorce was counted as a negative factor, the U. S. dropped to
II-1
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fifth place with an index of 55. Canada was first at 338 and Sweden
second at 226. A country's score in each category was its precen-
tage above or below the average for all 14 countries. A country's
overall index was compiled by totaling the percentage points in
each category.
Business is attempting to develop an index. First National
Bank of Minneapolis in its 1971 annual report outlined how it hoped
to measure 10 components that taken together should give an indi-
cation of the quality of life in the Twin Cities. Among the categories
are job opportunities, environment, housing, health and income.
The National Wildlife Federation, a conservation group, has
an index, though it's aimed more at environmental quality. It in-
cludes such items as soil, air, water and living space. In 1971
the index declined to 55. 5 from 57 in 1970.
Still another approach has been devised by William D. Nordhaus,
a Yale University economist. He has modified the gross national
product so as to come out with an index of household consumption,
which he believes says more about the quality of life than GNP,
which is a measure of total output of goods and services.
He calls his index a measure of economic welfare or MEW.
It excludes such things as defense spending, police and sanitation
services and road maintenance. These items, which are reflected
in GNP, are simply overhead costs of running a complex industrial
state, Mr. Nordhaus reasons, and they don't really produce any
net improvement in the quality of life.
He also includes some things that aren't in the gross national
product, such as the value of time devoted to leisure. Finally,
he makes allowance for various disamehities such as the costs of
pollution, urbanization, congestion and crime. The result is an
MEW that rises considerably slower than GNP--54.8% between 1947
and 1965 (the latest year for which Mr. Nordhaus made calculations)
as compared with a 99. 4% increase in GNP in the same period.
All of these approaches rely heavily on measuring the eco-
nomic or material aspects of life--consumption, cars, television
sets, number of doctors. It can be argued that this is as far as
one can or should go in devising a quality of life index, that it be-
comes impossibly difficult to go beyond material or quantitative
measures. To do so would load the index with such a high degree
of error as to destroy any usefulness.
II-2
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Indeed, there are problems enough just with this limited
approach. Take the seemingly simple exercise of how to value
leisure time. One way is according to the market place. If a
person earning $10 an hour has an hour of leisure, it is worth $10.
But that leads to the odd conclusion that leisure time for the poor
is less valuable than for the wealthy. Observation suggests that
just the reverse might be true. Because the poor must work
longer to earn a living wage, their leisure actually might be more
valuable since they have less of it.
That raises another possibility. Perhaps one should take into
account how people themselves value leisure. What is it worth to
a person to get an additional hour of leisure? Studies of what
commuters are willing to pay for transportation to get home from
work faster show that they are willing to pay only 20% to 25% of their
salary to save an hour. In other words, a person earning $10 an
hour won't spend $10 for an additional hour of free time, but he
would pay $2. Is an hour of leisure worth $2 or $10 ?
Mechanical problems such as this probably can be solved
(in the case of leisure, perhaps just by arbitrarily assigning one
value or the other), but there are more bothersome shortcomings
with consumption as a quality of life indicator. In a society such
as ours, which places great emphasis on material goods, no doubt
consumption does have a strong correlation to quality of life. Some
contend, however, that somewhere along the line consumption be-
comes an addictive drug with more consumption leading to greater-
craving, restlessness and unhappiness.
Others, like economist Kenneth E. Boulding, argue that
consumption is a poor measure because it is essentially decay--
television sets burning out, clothing wearing out. There also is
the problem of distribution of goods and services within our
society. Consumption is an absolute aggregate measure but qual-
ity of life probably is relative—the Joneses keeping us with the
Smiths. Thus, a rapid growth in overall consumption coupled with
a relative lack of progress on the part of low-income families
doesn't necessarily mean an overall improvement in quality of life.
SOME NONECONOMIC FACTORS
Finally, aren't there many noneconomic factors important
to the quality of life? Uriel G. Foa, psychologist at Temple
University, suggests that every human being has six basic needs:
love, status, information, money, goods and services. Some are
II-3
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economic and some aren't. Measuring the ups and downs in the
quality of life with an index limited to the economic factors assumes
that the noneconomic factors remain unchanged. In fact, the two
categories act back and forth on each other in some rather inter-
esting ways.
For instance, a person's religious beliefs can directly affect
his personal consumption. They will determine how much of his
personal wealth he gives to others and how much he keeps for him-
self. At the same time, personal consumption will have a great
deal to do with his religious beliefs. Whether a man is starving
or not is likely to influence how religious he is.
Prof. Foa maintains that by ignoring the significance of non-
economic needs we tend to see improvement in the quality of life
exclusively in terms of a better distribution of economic resources.
If what the blacks in this country need is status or love, lavishing
more goods and services on them isn't the whole answer to-improv-
ing their quality of life, and this is where indexes limited largely
to the economic side of things fall down.
Of course, there are obvious problems when it comes to
measuring the noneconomic aspects. If someone gives $10 to
another person, he is $10 poorer. If he gives love, he himself
likely has more love. With the noneconomic factors two and two
don't make four; they make five, six, or sometimes seven.
Perhaps a part solution is to think about quality of life in
terms of patterns rather than in absolutes--a suggestion made by
anthropologist Margaret Mead. One might look at a pattern of
life--what is available with a given level of technology, a given
level of education, a given set of resources--and examine whether
that pattern supplies people with a degree of dignity as human
beings that is comparable to the degree of dignity of other people.
In this way, one can compare a way of life that has, say,
more material things and less leisure with one that has less ma-
terial things and more leisure or with one where people have great
opportunities to develop religious or esthetic values and much less
material wealth.
Prof. Mead reports that in a New Guinea village where she
once lived the people felt they had attained a quality of life com-
parable to the American style that they had seen in Life magazine
because they believed .that what was needed was a house that was
divided into rooms and that had a separate kitchen. Having that
put them on a par with Americans.
II-4
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Thus, technological levels and levels of consumption become
relatively less important. If one has the kind of house that keeps
out the rain and gives dignity in regard to one's neighbors, one has
the kind of house that is needed and that kind of house, which might
be a thatched hut costing $500, can be compared with one in our
society that costs $40,000.
THE PLUMBING PATTERN
Patterns are useful, too, in gauging how our own quality of
life has changed over the years. For instance, anyone living today
in a house without indoor plumbing would be considered deprived,
but 50 years ago, not necessarily so.
It doesn't automatically follow that our quality of life has im-
proved just because more American homes have indoor plumbing
today than 50 years ago, or because more people have college edu-
cations. Beyond the very basic, irreducible human needs, things
that contribute to living first class are very much relative to time
and place--including the notion of human happiness itself. In some
societies people aren't necessarily supposed to be happy.
All of this suggests that quality of life is related, at least
partly, to what people believe they ought to have and believe it's
possible to have. One study of British factory workers showed
that they were just as unhappy if they were paid more than if they
were paid less than they thought they ought to be. If this is true,
then any index should probably reflect people's expectations.
For the moment, devising a quality of life index that would
include economic and noneconomic factors, encompass the essen-
tial patterns of life and reflect expectations of people is probably
beyond social scientists' capabilities. An index tied largely to
consumption is a useful beginning. Hopefully, however, before too
much longer, social scientists will provide the tools for a more
sophisticated measure.
II-5
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"QUALITY OF LIFE" NEEDS MORE EMPHASIS
An Excerpt From the Report of the White House
Conference on Youth
Report of the White House Conference on Youth,
Washington, D. C., April 1971, pp. 71-74.
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'QUALITY OF LIFE" NEEDS MORE EMPHASIS
Extract From the Report of the White House
Conference on Youth
During the last decade, the economic production of the United
States has grown at annual rates approaching $50 billion. Late
in 1970 our Gross National Product (GNP) passed the $1 trillion
mark. Despite considerations of inflation, we have clearly
reached unprecedented levels of basic economic and industrial
wealth.
Although there are wide differences of opinion concerning
the distribution of wealth, it can be generally stated that our
economic growth has been passed on, in varying degrees, to
most sectors of our population. Despite this apparent and un-
precedented affluence, the social and political trends of the
nation indicate a deep and widespread discontentment, particu-
larly among the youth population. Although the nature of this
discontent is vague and multivarient, it might generally be de-
scribed as a basic dissatisfaction with the overall conditions of
life. These problems are increasingly referred to as a concern
for the "quality of life. " This concern considers economic
wealth important but also places heavy emphasis on conditions
beyond the immediate realm of economics, such as the natural
environment, pollution, health, over-crowding, cultural oppor-
tunities and political influence. Basically, concern over the
"quality of life" suggests a growing disenchantment with the
primacy which economics and "materialism" have had in our
society and calls for increased individual and social concern for
matters not directly within the sphere of economics.
The apparent widespread dissatisfaction and available
statistics imply substantial validity to three interrelated theories.
First, despite apparent economic progress, the overall "quality
of life" within the United States may actually be declining.
Second, there is a possibility that the "quality of life" may not
be declining but that it is meeting neither its fullest potential,
nor the expectations of vast portions of the vast portions of the
population. Third, is the possibility that the primacy of economic
concerns to our informational, organizational and decision-
making processes may be causing imbalance and suboptimization
of the "quality of life" within our society. These three prospects
suggest a need for vigorous reevaluation of our decision-making
II-6
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criteria and national priorities. Such reevaluation and possible
social adjustments will .require informat-lon and analytical tools
which are either not available or inadequate at this time, but it
must be understood that GNP is not the sole indicator of the
quality of life.
Ultimately, effective decisions and actions cannot be made
concerning social objectives unless means can be developed to
measure initial conditions and changes in conditions. There are
four major problems which must be pursued by efforts to provide
information for today's social problems. First, vastly expanded
efforts must be made to provide information concerning non-
economic and semi-economic matters such as pollution, health,
and human skills and potentials. Second, ways must be developed
to provide visibility and a just balance of attention to unnoticed
yet critical social problems. Third, methods must be developed
which provide information about the actual success of public
programs in attaining the objectives for which they were created.
Fourth, there is a need for a balanced system view of social
concerns to facilitate optimal and efficient enough provision of
relevant information to generate political pressures through
awareness.
The prospect of creating broad economic and noneconomic
measurements to provide balanced indicators of the conditions of
life within our society is feasible and partially researched. Work
to this date suggests that while it is unreasonable to expect a
single variable such as the GNP to be an indicator of the "quality
of life, " it is reasonable to envision the development of a series
of consolidated social measures which will provide a general view
of the social welfare. However, the sophisticated and inter-
related social statistics that are becoming increasingly critical
to future decision making have not yet materialized.
MEASUREMENT OF THE "QUALITY OF LIFE"
Criteria should be developed for the measurement of the
"quality of life" for both individuals and the general society and
mechanisms should be developed for the collection, interpreta-
tion and presentation of information pertaining to this criteria.
II-7
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The criteria should include the following areas of social and
individual concern:
(1) Natural Environment. Preservation of natural
beauty and wildlife and opportunity to regularly experience un-
spoiled wilderness and water. Tabulation on the use of reserves
of natural resources.
(2) Living Environment. Overall maintenance of urban,
suburban and rural living and working areas. Maintenance of :
minimal conditions for clean air and water, available space,
general sanitation and health, housing and structual safety and
building and street aesthetics.
(3) General Health. Basic sanitation and safety main-
tenance, ample available health care and intensive medical
services for the young and elderly.
(4) Income and Basic Economic Security. Minimization
of individual economic deprivation, minimum guaranteed living
standard, equitable distribution of wealth and continual oppor-
tunity to pursue improved economic conditions.
(5) Employment and Productivity- General provision for
productive opportunity which provides equitable personal re-
wards, socially beneficial effects and optimization of an in-
dividual's ability and willingness to contribute.
(6) Productive Employment Areas. Study of the'varia-
tions from the mean which exist within minority groups regard-
ing educational attainment in relation to earning power.
(7) Aggregate Economic Advancement. Overall economic
production of society which takes into consideration negative and
preventive production (such as smog control devices) and en-
vironmental deterioration costs.
(8) Training, Education and Culture. Opportunity to
learn usable skills, problem solving abilities and the value of
the world.
(9) Justice and Freedom Concerning Threat and Coercion.
Minimum threat of harm or loss of security. Extent of positive
as opposed to negative sanctions used in societal and individual
interaction.
II-8
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(10) Individualism. Opportunity for free expression and
selection of "life style, " and levels of social tolerance and
alienation.
INFORMING THE PUBLIC ON "QUALITY OF LIFE"
Performance indices should be developed and reports should
be released in a way which provides a highly visible and simple
indication of how our society is functioning in each of the above
categories. Social index reports should be publicly released on
a regular basis in much the same way as current unemployment
and price figures. Information concerning the means of calcula-
ting these indices and background data should also be publicly
available.
Implementation: There is no clear cost data concerning
the development and maintenance of an expanded social report
system. The 1971 Federal government allotment for statistical
programs is approximately $161 million. It does not seem un-
likely that a vastly expanded statistical program would cost
twice as much as existing mechanisms.
Although raw data concerning the various categories for an
overall "quality of life" report might be, collected by agencies
and organizations concerned with the subject of measurement,
it is undesirable that the nature of the overall report be unduly
influenced by a particular interest or perspective. It is there-
fore suggested that the final accumulation, interpretation and
presentation of "quality of life" data be undertaken by an expanded
version of the Council of Economic Advisors. The title of the
existing Council should be changed to the Council of Economic
and Social Advisors. The existing staff and resources of this
body should be broadened and plans should be made and imple-
mented which will allow a fully balanced regular report on the
overall "quality of life" by the latter half of the 1970's. Ul-
timately, the Council should assume balanced stature and the
title of Council of Aggregate Social Welfare.
II-9
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HOPES AND FEARS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
Albert H. Cantril and Charles W. Roll, Jr.
Albert H. Cantril is an independent consultant in
political and survey research.
Charles W. Roll, Jr. is study director in the
Gallup Organization and President of Political
Surveys and Analyses, a research organization.
Albert H. Cantril and Charles W. Roll, Jr., Hopes
and Fears of the American People, A Potomac Associates
Book, New York: Universe Books, 1971, pp. 1-15.
-------
HOPES AND FEARS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
Albert H. CantrLI and Charles W. Roll, Jr.
Analysts of contemporary America make many and varied
assessments of what they see as the unhealthy state of the nation.
The characterizations of the situation differ: a national crisis of
identity, a failure on the part of our major institutions, the alien-
ation and isolation of the individual. Central to the concern, no
matter how it is expressed, is the call for a reformation of old
assumptions about how men relate to each other and to their
institutions.
Such a revolution in values ultimately means the abandon-
ment of old assumptions on a scale so broad that new views will
take hold among the public at large. But this is a painful process,
for assumptions will be abandoned only insofar as frustration with
them is truly widespread. The process at best is uneven, and the
resistance is great.
To find out how responsive or resistant Americans are to
such change is what we set out to do. Admittedly, it was an am-
bitious undertaking. It involved nothing less than an attempt to
define the basic hopes and fears of the American people.
To get at this level of opinion, we used a technique that has
become known as the "self-anchoring striving scale. " The tech-
nique was developed by the late Hadley Cantril and his colleague,
Lloyd A. Free, in connection with a series of studies conducted in
eighteen different countries between 1958 and 1964 by the Institute
of International Social Research. Their interest was to determine
patterns of human aspiration among people living under varying
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kinds of political systems and at various stages of national social
and economic development.*
In the striving scale technique, the respondent is first asked
to describe what life would be like if he were to imagine his future
in the "best possible light." This question is open-ended and the
respondent's comments are recorded verbatim by the interviewer.
The respondent is then asked the opposite: what his future would
be like in the "worst possible light. " Again, his comments are re-
corded verbatim. The actual wording of the questions follows:
All of us want certain things -ouf of life.
When you think about what really matters
in your own life, what are your wishes and
hopes for the future ? In other words, if
you imagine your future in the best possible
light, what would your life look like then, if
you are to be happy ? Take your time in
answering; such things aren't easy to put
into words.
Now, taking the other side of the picture,
what are your fears and worries about the
future? In other words, if you imagine your
future in the worst possible light, what
would your life look like then ? Again, take
your time in answering.
The substance of the hopes and fears mentioned is subsequently
coded by major categories of concern.
*Among countries included in the Institute's studies were the
United States, West Germany, Great Britain, France, Japan,
Yugoslavia, Poland, Israel, India, the Philippines, Nigeria,
Cuba, and the Dominican Republic. The results of the studies
appear in: Hadley Cantril, The Pattern of Human Concerns
(New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1965); Lloyd A.
Free and Hadley Cantril, The Political Beliefs of Americans
(New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1967); and F. P.
Kilpatrick and Hadley Cantril, "Self-Anchoring Scaling: A
Measure of Individuals' Unique Reality Worlds, " Journal of
Individual Psychology, XVI (November, 1960): 158-73.
11-11
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The respondent is next shown a picture of a ladder, sym-
bolic of the ladder of life (see figure 1). The top rung of the
ladder, he is told, represents the entire complex
of hopes he has just described as the ideal state of
affairs, and the bottom rung represents the worst
state of affairs. He is then asked to indicate where
„ he feels he stands on the ladder at the present time
in relation to his aspirations, where he believes he
. stood five years ago, and where he thinks he will be
. five years hence.
3
2 The respondent's ladder ratings are self-
anchored in that the top and bottom of the ladder
are defined in his own terms. Thus a present lad-
der rating of "6" for an upper-middle-class house-
figure 1 wife in the New York suburbs is the psychological
equivalent of a "6" rating for a sharecropper in the
Southwest, even though the substance of their hopes and fears may
differ markedly. Further, the respondent's three ladder ratings
can be compared, giving a measure of his personal sense of ac-
complishment (as indicated by the ladder rating shift from past to
present) and personal sense of optimism (as indicated by the shift
from present to future).
The same series of interrelated questions is then asked
about the United States to determine the respondent's hopes and
fears for the nation. The respondent is asked to describe the best
and worst possible states of affairs for the United States and to
indicate national ladder ratings for past, present, and future.
This striving scale has been employed twice before in the
United States, in 1959 and 1964, by'the Institute for International
Social Research. We were able to cite these earlier results,
thereby placing our own findings in perspective. In all three sur-
veys, The Gallup Organization was commissioned to do the polling,
so there is comparability between the Institute's results and our
own.
HOPES AM) FEARS FOR SELF
The American people continue to be preoccupied with two
matters--health and their standard of living (see table 1). These
11-12
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two items were cited most frequently as both hopes and fears in
1959, 1964, and 1971, though they were mentioned with consid-
erably less frequency in 1971.
Although the chief hopes and fears expressed by Americans
have changed little in the past twelve years, Americans appear to
be less preoccupied with what has traditionally comprised the
American Dream. This conclusion can be drawn from the de-
creased frequency with which people mentioned, as either hopes
or fears, higher standard of living, fulfillment of aspirations for
children, owning a home, availability of leisure time, and assur-
ances of a happy old age.
A change in personal concerns is evident in the topics men-
tioned more frequently in our January survey than in the earlier
studies--drugs, pollution, and crime. These new concerns relate
to problems demanding social rather than individual solutions.
One economic matter much on the public's mind is inflation,
having bounded into public consciousness over the past few years.
In 1959 and 1964, only 1 percent and 3 percent, respectively,
spoke of a fear of inflation; in our survey, 11 percent did. Yet
concern over unemployment, at a time when the number of people
out of work remains high, is not much changed from that of the
1959 and 1964 surveys.
Personal anxiety over international tensions seems to have
leveled off. Since 1964, war as a fear has declined, and the slight
increase with which peace was mentioned as a personal hope is
statistically insignificant. The jump in personal concern over in-
ternational tensions occurred between 1959 and 1964--years when
the cold war was marked by such events as the Cuban missile
crisis, .the Vienna Summit, and the downing of a U-2 reconnais-
sance plane over the Soviet Union.
11-13
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Table 1 PERSONAL HOPES AND FEARS
in percentages*
Personal Hopes
Good health for self
Better standard of living
Peace in the world
Achievement of aspirations for children
Happy family life
Good health for family
Own house or live in better one
Peace of mind; emotional maturity
Having wealth
Having leisure time
Happy old age
Good job; congenial work
Employment
Freedom from inflation
Other general concerns for family
1959
40
38
9
29
18
16
24
5
2
11
10
7
5
1
7
1964
29
40
17
35
18
25
12
9
5
5
8
9
8
2
4
1971
29
27
19
17
14
13
11
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
Personal Fears
111 health for self
Lower standard of living
War
111 health for family
Unemployment
Inflation
Unhappy children
Drug problem in family
Pollution
Political instability
No fears at all
Crime
1959
40
23
21
25
10
1
12
--
--
1
12
— —
1964
25
19
29
27
14
3
10
--
--
2
10
—
1971
28
18
17
16
13
11
8
7
7
5
5
5
#A shift of 4 percentage points among the three studies
(1959, 1964, 1971) is considered statistically significant.
11-14
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One of the most important variations in the patterning of
concerns is found between the young (those twenty-one to twenty-
nine years of age) and their elders. The young people appear to
be burgeoning with aspirations. In our January survey, they dis-
played a greater degree of concern about a broader range of is-
sues than older people did. The young mentioned more frequently
concern about a higher standard of living, good family life, a bet-
ter home, personal wealth, a good job, and solutions to the pollu-
tion and crime problems. In only one area were they less con-
cerned than their elders--health. With high hopes, youth has
much to be frustrated about and is likely to be impatient.
Table 2 compares the 1959, 1964, and 1971 ladder ratings
people gave themselves with respect to their own personal lives.
On the whole, these ratings reflect a considerable sense of per-
sonal accomplishment: the rating for the present is eight-tenths
(+0. 8) of a step higher than that for the past--almost a full step
on a ten-step ladder. The public is also optimistic about the fu-
ture: the ladder rating for the future is nine-tenths (+0. 9) of a
step higher than that for the present. As might be expected, too,
young people exhibit the greatest hopefulness in their ladder rat-
ings (see table 3).
Table 2 PERSONAL LADDER RATINGS
1959 1964 1971
Rating
Past
Present
Future
5.9
6.6
7.8
6.0
6.9
7.9
5.8
6.6
7.5
Shift*
Pass to present
Present to future
+0.7
+1.2
+0.9
+1.0
+0.8
+0.9
*A shift of 0.6 in a rating is considered statistically significant.
11-15
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Table 3 PERSONAL LADDER RATING SHIFTS
BY POPULATION GROUPS
past to present present to future
1971 1971
NATIONAL +0.8 +0- 9
Age
21-29 +1-6 +1-8
30-49 +1.1 +1-2
50 & over +0.2 +0.1
Education
College +1-3 +1.1
High school +0.9 +1.1
Grade school 0.0 +0.2
Income
Upper +1.6 +1.0
Upper middle +1.1 +1.0
Lower middle +0.5 +0.8
Lower -0.1 +0.4
Race
White +0.8 +0.9
Nonwhite +0.4 +1.0
Despite the relative satisfaction of Americans at the per-
sonal level, significant pockets of frustration and hopelessness do
exist. Those with only a grade school education gave themselves
a personal ladder rating for the present that is exactly the same
as their rating for the past. Their ladder rating for the future was
just two-tenths (+0.2) of a step higher than that for the present.
A similar picture emerges among lower income groups:
their ladder rating shows no real movement from past to present
(-0.1 of a step) and no significant increase from present to future
(+0.4 of a step). The relatively static rating for lower income
groups may be attributable in part to the inclusion of a large pro-
portion of retired persons whose incomes place them within the
lowest quarter of the economic scale. On the whole, older people
generally displayed only slight shifts in their personal ladder
ratings.
11-16
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Significantly, these pockets of despair are not concentrated
in the nonwhite community. Table 3 shows that there are no truly
meaningful differences in ladder-rating shifts between races. Al-
though nonwhites gave themselves lower ladder ratings than whites,
on the key point of movement from past to present to future the
races differed little in their perceptions.
Although Americans show some apprehension over a range
of emergent social concerns, they appear on the whole to be per-
sonajly rather satisfied with their lot.
HOPES AND FEARS FOR THE UNITED STATES
When it comes to hopes and fears for the United States,
however, the picture is one of considerably less assurance.
Table 4 makes clear that issues of war and peace have consistently
dominated the aspirations and fears Americans have for their na-
tion. In 1971, though, the percentage mentioning war as a fear
dropped to 30, from 64 percent in 1959 and 50 percent in 1964.
The percentage citing fear of communism has dropped since 1964,
too--from 29 percent to only 12 percent. Further, those mention-
ing reduction of international tensions as a hope declined from 17
percent in 1959 to 7 percent in 1971. These changes probably in-
dicate that the public is moving away from its earlier perception
of a bipolar world preoccupied with the threat of nuclear holocaust.
In fact, of the 30 percent mentioning fear of war in our study, only
11 percent referred to nuclear war. Another 7 percent spoke of
the Vietnam War, and the remaining 12 percent referred to war in
general.
As a national issue, the state of the economy is clearly
bothering the American people. Concern over inflation has es-
calated as both a hope and a fear. Hope for economic stability
jumped from 5 percent in 1964 to 18 percent in 1971 at the same
time that its converse, fear of economic instability, moved from
13 percent to 17 percent. But, just as we saw with respect to
personal hopes and fears, unemployment has not evoked increased
national concern--regardless of the continued urgency of the
problem.
Drug use and pollution emerged distinctly as new national
concerns in our study. One respondent in ten listed solving pollu-
tion problems as a hope for the nation; 6 percent cited solution of
11-17
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Table 4 NATIONAL HOPES AND FEARS
in percentages*
national hopes
Peace
Economic stability; no inflation
Employment
National unity
Law and order
Better standard of living
Solution of pollution problems
Settlement of racial problems
Improved public morality
International cooperation; reduced tensions
Solution of drug problem
1959
48
12
13
1
3
20
—
14
7
17
1964
51
i
5
15
9
4
28
—
15
10
6
1971
51
18
16
15
11
11
10
10
8
7
6
national fears
War (esp. nuclear war)
National disunity; political instability
Economic instability; inflation
Communism
Lack of law and order
Pollution
Drugs
Racial tensions
Unemployment
Lack of public morality
Loss of personal freedom
1959
64
3
18
12
3
--
--
--
7
4
4
1964
50
8
13
29
5
--
--
9
6
5
5
1971
30
26
17
12
11
9
7
7
7
6
5
*A shift of 4 percentage points among the three studies (1959,
1964, 1971) is considered statistically significant.
11-18
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the drug problem. On the other side of the scale, drugs and pollu-
tion were newly cited fears, just as at the personal level. There
was virtually no mention of either in 1959 or 1964.
Our most startling finding, however,, was a new and urgent
concern over national unity, political stability, and law and order.
As a hope for the nation, national unity jumped from 1 percent in
1959 to 15 percent in 1971. In other words, one out of every seven
Americans in our study cited national unity as an aspiration. In-
creased mention of hope for law and order was nearly as pro-
nounced. And, most striking of all, one American in four (26 per-
cent) listed national disunity or political instability as a fear for
the nation--a more than threefold increase over 1964.
The depth of the concern is apparent in the comments of re-
spondents. A forty-nine-year-old accountant in Vermont told the
interviewer, "I fear more riots or even revolution if we don't
solve some of our present problems.11 A twenty-two-year-old
mother in Nebraska said, "If people do not learn to live together
with what they have, they will be fighting and trying to get more
and more while people lose their freedom. " A forty-seven-year-
old mechanic in Texas commented, "We would be tearing and burn-
ing everything up. There would be no regard for the other man.
If you wanted something, you'd just take it. "
As table 5 shows, fear of national disunity and political in-
stability was expressed by all segments of the population: young
and old, well and poorly educated, rich and poor, nonwhites and
whites, Democrats and Republicans.
This public anxiety about the state of the nation was dra-
matically revealed by the ladder ratings citizens gave their country
(see table 6). Looking at the United States in January, 1971,
Americans gave a rating (on a ten-rung ladder) of 6.2 for five
years past, 5.4 for the present, and 6.2 for five years in the future.
In other words, Americans sense that their country has lost
rather than gained ground over the past five years--as evidenced
by the drop from past to present in the national ladder rating of
nearly a full step.
Looking ahead, people expect the United States in 1976--our
bicentennial year--to be merely where it was a full decade earlier,
having barely recovered the reverses of the last half decade.
11-19
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Table 5 MENTION OF NATIONAL DISUNITY AND
POLITICAL INSTABILITY AS A NATIONAL
FEAR BY POPULATION GROUPS
in percentages
NATIONAL AVERAGE 26
Age
21-29 29
30-49 24
50 & over 24
Education
College 26
High school 23
Grade school 24
Income
Upper 29
Upper middle 28
Lower middle 25
Lower 20
Political affiliation
Democrat 27
Republican 24
Independent 25
Race
White 25
Nonwhite 2fi
11-20
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Table 6 NATIONAL LADDER RATINGS
1959 1964 1971
Rating
Past
Present
Future
6.5
6.7
7.4
6.1
6.5
7.7
6.2
5.4
6.2
Shift*
Past to present +0.2 +0.4 -0.8
Present to future +0.7 +1.2 +0.8
''A shift of 0.6 in a rating is considered statistically significant.
The importance of the drop in the ladder rating from past to
present can scarcely be overstated. In the many studies in which
the Institute for International Social Research used the striving
scale technique, only once did a present national ladder rating fall
below that for the past. This occurred in the Philippines in 1959,
at a time when the country appeared to lack strong, dynamic
leadership and seemed to many of its people to be standing still.
Historically, shifts in ladder ratings have proven very sensi-
tive indicators of national mood. In Cuba, for example, the Insti-
tute conducted a study in mid-1960, after Castro's ascent to power.
The national ladder ratings showed that the Cuban public was very
excited and optimistic about the revolution. There was a jump
from past to present of nearly five steps on the ladder and from
present to future of just under two. Clearly, with this amount of
internal enthusiasm, there was little reason to believe the Cuban
population would join an uprising to oust Castro. This fact was
given implicit recognition after the abortive Bay of Pigs invasion
by Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., then serving as a special assistant to
President John F. Kennedy. In a note of acknowledgement to the
Institute, Mr. Schlesinger wrote: "I read with interest your Cuban
report--and only wish that a copy has come to my attention earlier. "
Another case was that of the Dominican Republic. National
ladder ratings derived from a 1962 survey showed an intense sense
of frustration. Almost half of the population gave the country a
zero ladder rating for the past, yielding an average past rating of
only 1.7. The present rating was just one step higher. The future
11-21
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rating,, however, was over four steps above that of the present.
These results prompted Lloyd Free to point to a revolutionary
situation in the Dominican Republic almost three years before the
1965 crisis actually occurred. These cases, and others, are de-
scribed in The Human Dimension: Experiences in Policy Research,
by Hadley Cantril (Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick,
New Jersey, 1967).
This sense of national regression is evident among most
population groups (see table 7). In particular, the disparities be-
tween population groups at varying education and income levels
with respect to personal ladder ratings do not appear in the na-
tional ratings. Similarly, there is little difference between age
groups.
Table 7 NATIONAL LADDER RATING SHIFTS
BY POPULATION GROUPS
past to present present to future
1971 1971
NATIONAL ' -0.8 +0.8
Age
21-29 -0.6 +1.0
30-49 -0.8 +0.9
50 & over -1.0 +0.7
Education
College -0.6 +0.9
High school -0.9 +0.8
Grade school -0.8 +0.7
Income
Upper -0.8 +1.0
Upper middle -0.9 +0.8
Lower middle -0.7 +0.9
Lower -0.8 +0.7
Race
White -0.9 +0.8
Nonwhite +0.6 +0.7
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Where differing assessments do appear is between races.
The national ladder rating given by whites declined nearly a full
step (-0.9) from past to present. In contrast, the rating given
by nonwhites rose by more than half a step (+0.6), indicating that
nonwhites sense measurable accomplishment. This shift is in
sharp contrast to the situation in 1959, when exactly the opposite
pattern obtained (see table 8). While the progress of recent years
has quite obviously not resolved the racial crisis, our findings
nevertheless indicate that nonwhites believe gains have been made
at the national level.
Table 8 NATIONAL LADDER RATING
SHIFTS BY RACE
past to present past to present
1959 1971
White +0.3 -0.9
Nonwhite -0.3 +0.6
The national ladder ratings also reveal that people of all
political persuasions believe the nation has slipped (see table 9).
Although Democrats and those disapproving of President Nixon's
handling of his job naturally sense the greatest decline, they are
not alone. Our findings assume greater significance when they are
set against those of the highly partisan year of 1964 (see table 10).
Then, the sense of accomplishment over the preceding five years
was great among the Democratic "ins, " but the feeling was not
shared by the Republican "outs." Now, however, even among Re-
publicans, the sense of decline is pronounced.
11-23
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Table 9 NATIONAL LADDER RATING SHIFTS
BY POLITICAL PERSUASION
past to present present to future_
1971 1971
Political affiliation
Democrat -1.0 +0.8
Republican -0.6 +1.0
Independent -0.8 +0.7
Nixon job rating
Approve -0.6 +0.8
Disapprove -1.2 +0.9
Table 10 SHIFTS IN NATIONAL LADDER RATINGS IN
1964 AND 1971 BY POLITICAL AFFILIATION
past to present past to present
1964 1971
Democrats +1.1 -1.0
Republicans -0.8 -0.6
Independents 0.0 -0.8
We found no single predominant cause behind the drop in the
national ladder rating. The sense that the country has moved back-
ward over the past five years is shared by all those who mentioned
the principal national fears of war, national disunity, inflation, lack
of law and, order, communism, and pollution (see table 11).
The hopes and fears expressed by the American people are
thus full of paradox.
11-24
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Table 11 NATIONAL LADDER RATING SHIFTS BY
MAJOR NATIONAL FEARS
past to present
1971
NATIONAL AVERAGE -0.8
Those mentioning:
Communism -1.3
Lack of law and order -1.1
National disunity and political instability -0. 9
Economic instability and inflation -0.9
War -0.7
Pollution -0.6
On the personal level, Americans express less concern
than they did five or ten years ago with the material elements that
have traditionally comprised the American Dream. Their con-
cerns, too, have broadened to include problems that cannot be
solved by the individual alone--drugs, inflation, pollution, and
crime. In their personal ladder ratings, they display a consider-
able sense of achievement and optimism.
On the national level, however, the picture differs. Most
striking is the degree, in all segments of the population, to which
fear of national disunity is expressed. The mood of the people is
vividly shown in the ladder ratings they gave their country--a
present rating almost one step below that for the past, and a future
rating that merely compensates for the ground lost in the last five
years. The American people clearly feel their nation is in trouble.
11-25
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III. QOL: ENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVES
-------
OUR ENVIRONMENT: CONTROLS AND COSTS*
S. Fred Singer
Dr. Singer, currently a member of the faculty of the
University of Virginia, was formerly Deputy Assistant
Secretary, Scientific Programs, U. S. Department of
the Interior.
'"Extracted from the Conference Board Record of May
1971, pp. 20-22.
-------
OUR ENVIRONMENT: CONTROLS AND COSTS
S. Fred Singer
If I am asked to predict what is going to happen to the popu-
lation or to business, I must have a demographic-economic model.
We must describe the real-life situation in a way simple enough so
we can deal with it, yet complicated enough to retain all the im-
portant features.
We start with population, which can, of course, be charac-
terized by an immense number of attributes. Concentrate on
three: age, income, and distribution (i.e., location in a city, town,
or rural area). These are likely to be the major parameters de-
termining what goods and services a person needs. For example,
a child requires educational services; an adult usually does not.
A high-income person spends his money on different goods and
services than a poor one, and the needs and spending habits of a
rural dweller are very different from a city dweller's.
All goods, whether agricultural or manufactured, require
labor and capital. But they also require the use of natural re-
sources-, minerals, as raw materials; fuels, mostly in the form
of energy; water for processing or cooling; and land for growing,
grazing, or for buildings.
We often speak about the consumption of natural resources,
but this is incorrect. Resources are not consumed. They are
transformed into wastes, which produce adverse effects on air,
water, and land. So at every step of a manufacturing or agricul-
tural or mining process, we must spend money to control pollu-
tion. In the past, this was passed along to society as a social cost.
The polluted environment decreases the quality of life for people in
a real economic sense--although the economic loss has seldom
been quantified and expressed in dollars. But the damage to health,
to crops, to buildings, and to recreation and enjoyment can be mea-
sured. Now, because of legislation, these costs must be borne by
the polluter--by industry, agriculture, and by municipalities.
Interestingly enough, no good efforts exist in the accounting
for all these environmental costs, and certainly they have not been
identified in the national income accounts--in the GNP calculations.
This is a task we are now undertaking comprehensively, looking at
all the pollution control costs incurred in the use of natural
III-l
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resources and in the subsequent manufacturing processes. This
study is called "The Environmental Costs of a Growing Population1';
it will be published as a source volume on pollution control costs.
With this data base we can study and predict a number of things
that are very important for the nation's economic life--for business-
men, consumers, government. For example: What is the total
national cost of maintaining a certain level of environmental qual-
ity; how does this cost increase as population increases and it be-
comes necessary to clean up all effluents to a much higher degree
of purity?
Two points should be made here. First, the national costs
include not only costs paid by the consumer for basic natural re-
sources (water, energy), but also the increases in manufacturing
costs which come about because the manufacturer has to pay more
for minerals, energy and water. Secondly, though individual costs
are important, what really count are the national costs: while, in
the first instance, an industry bears the cost for pollution control,
it must eventually pass this cost along to the consumer. To the
extent that industries or municipalities are subsidized by Federal
funds, through demonstration grants, construction grants, or spe-
cial tax write-offs, the cost is spread to the nation as a whole. It
is important to realize that the total national costs do not depend on
the method of payment, but if we make the method too complicated,
then additional money will be sopped up in supporting a bureaucracy.
SETTING STANDARDS
Once we have arrived at a national cost, we can answer some
questions: How clean is clean? How far should we, or need we,
go in cleaning up the environment? What level of purity makes
economic sense (i.e., at what point do additional monies spent for
a higher degree of purity become greater than all the additional
benefits the purity produces)? This marginal analysis would allow
us to use a rational process for setting environmental quality stan-
dards, rather than a political and sometimes highly emotional one.
I predict that the rational method will win out, particularly as pop-
ulation increases, as demands for natural resources rise more
steeply, and as the environment's capacity to absorb wastes is
saturated. Consider: Population rises at a little over 1% per
year, but consumption of minerals and energy at 3-4%, and elec-
tricity at 7%--doubling every 10 years!
Ill-2
-------
Can this trend continue on a finite earth with finite resources?
A report of the National Academy of Science's Committee on Re-
sources and Man points out that it may not be possible to meet fu-
ture mineral demands, especially if we also wish to raise world
living standards. Even with present rates of consumption, i.e.,
no further increase in population, by the year 2000 the known U. S.
reserves at current mineable grades of uranium-235, gas and oil
will be exhausted, as will manganese, chromium, nickle, tungsten,
cobalt, and copper. Worse still, lead, zinc, tin, gold, silver, and
platinum will have been mined out all over the world. The dispersal
of volatiles like helium and mercury is particularly serious. It
must be pointed out that lower-grade ores are available, but ex-
traction costs and especially pollution costs will affect the
economics.
The energy situation is not as bleak--provided nuclear cata-
lytic burners, breeder reactors and fusion reactors can be per-
fected soon enough. Once an inexhaustible source of energy is
available, lower-grade ores can be tackled, and more water can
be desalted--but at a cost. Even nuclear fusion power does not
come free.
We are running out of water. The Federal Water Resources
Council in its recent national assessment reports that shortages
existing today in the Southwest will spread to many other regions
before 1990. Water transfers will no longer be possible; water
reuse will be commonplace. But cleaning up water costs money;
once free, water will be an expensive raw material. Keep in
mind also that the costs of pollution control rise very steeply as
the level of purity approaches 100%. But as more and more people
and more and more waste-producing activities share the same
body of water, or the same volume of air, each individual will
have to control his affluent to a higher degree of purity.
For this reason, pollution control costs (still less than 1%
of GNP--and that mostly for collection and disposal of municipal
refuse and garbage) will become an ever-increasing fraction of
GNP. Eventually, continued growth of the kind we are used to
will simply become too expensive. The costs of disamenities like
pollution and traffic snarls will become greater than the gains
from higher productivity. GNP may continue to rise, but its most
important aspect--quality of life--will diminish.
Ill-3
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QUALITY-OF-LIFE ECONOMICS
Knowing the national costs of pollution control gives us
another useful result; namely, a guide to how much to invest in
new technology. For example, within the next few years national
costs of meeting air quality standards in electric power plants will
be between $1.5 and $2 billion a year. This is a large sum of
money, and since nearly everyone pays, it is almost like a tax. So
wouldn't it make sense to take a fraction of this money and develop
a process which takes sulfur out of coal, and thereby cut the en-
vironmental costs?
Business has a tremendous stake in seeing to it that govern- •
ment behaves in an economically rational way. Perhaps economic
growth will develop in a way that doesn't cause pollution (and there-
fore diseconomies). Take health and education services. National
health expenditures went from $3. 6 billion in 1929 (3. 5% of GNP)
to $57. 1 billion in 1968 (6. 6% of GNP). Projections for 1975, be-
tween 7. 9% and 8. 6% of GNP; for 1980, between 8% and 9. 8%.
Similarly, total national expenditures for education in the U. S.
went from a 1943 low of 1. 8% of GNP to 7. 1% in 1968. Clearly,
these expenditures can't increase forever; we may be approaching
a saturation point beyond which costs should be predictable by
simple demographic principles. In fact, since medical research
costs, development costs for drugs and educational aids, computer
programs, etc., are relatively fixed, per-capita costs may de-
crease as population increases.
Predicting the economic future is complicated since each
item behaves in a different way. On a per-capita basis, the cost
of manufactured goods will increase very steeply, unless offset by
technology. Services should hold more or less constant, and cer-
tain government expenditures should decrease, as population
grows. Our job is to evaluate each of these, since together with
capital investment, they contribute to make up GNP. But what are
we trying to optimize? Surely not GNP. Even GNP per capita is
not the right index, since it corresponds to an index of national
production rather than consumption.
We want to achieve the highest quality of life for the popula-
tion as a whole. We must first define "quality of life" acceptably,
and operationally--i. e., the definition will incorporate a method
for calculating quality of life and expressing it in some unit, like
III-4
-------
dollars. Our next job is to devise a way to translate national in-
come accounts (like GNP) into a more meaningful expression of
well-being--an index of quality of life (IQL).
In our society, where material comforts contribute impor-
tantly to what people perceive as happiness, a loose definition
might be "having as much money as possible left over after taking
care of basic necessities, and having the necessary time and op-
portunities for spending it in a pleasant way. " This also means
"having a maximum range of choices for a way of life. " This defi-
nition satisfies our criteria reasonably well. It measures the
quality of life in dollar terms by calculating potential consumption
and assigning a monetary value to free time. Specifically, we
start by examining the national income accounts, which aggregate
the nation's output, to see which items contribute to IQL, and to
what extent. We include amenities like leisure time and environ-
mental quality--not counted in GNP. We subtract items that enter
into GNP but are really disamenities which don't contribute to
quality of life. Among the most important are pollution and in-
crease distribution costs in crowded urban areas.
We can now look at "optimum population" by closing the loop
in our systems analysis which models the relationships among pop-
ulation, resources, environment, and quality of life. For exam-
ple, we can test the effects of individual demographic changes,
i. e., age, income, geographic distribution. To do this, we
"exercise" our model to derive first the various items of GNP,
including disamenities, and then calculate the corresponding IQL.
As the population grows and changes according to our demographic
model, the quality of life will change--and, hopefully, improve--
until a point is reached where the disamenities become so large
that quality of life diminishes from then on. At this point we can
reasonably say we have reached an optimum level of population.
A GUIDE FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY
If the model is proven out acceptably, it can perform many
other tasks. It can, for example, gauge the effects of various
government policies, not only on demographic parameters (i.e.,
population), but also on the quality of life for the average citizen.
What will be the various economic effects of family planning or
fertility control on consumption of goods, services, business in
general? What about the effects of income maintenance or a
III-5
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national growth policy which tries to achieve a better distribution
of population? Tax policies can stimulate or inhibit; and various
economic policies regarding farmers, labor unions, corporations,
transportation, housing, natural resources--all have secondary
impacts often difficult to predict. New technology has positive
features and can increase productivity and quality of life—but it
can also have drawbacks which in the long run produce disecono-
mies. A measure of such factors is long overdue.
Ill-6
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POLICY MEASURES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT*
Harvey S. Perloff
Harvey S. Perloff is Dean of the School of Architecture
and Urban Planning at the University of California in
Los Angeles and Associate with Resources for the Future.
'-Extracted from "A Framework for Dealing With the
Urban Environment: Introductory Statement11 by
Harvey S. Perloff (ed.) in The Quality of the Urban
Environment, Washington, D. C.: Resources for
the Future, Inc., 1969, pp. 20-25.
-------
POLICY MEASURES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
Harvey S. Perloff
A broad framework for what I would call a system of "policy
measures for the environment" is suggested here (see table 1).
First, let me make some comments about the terms used, "indi-
cator" is normally used to describe the condition of a single ele-
ment, factor, or the like, which is part of a complex interrelated
system (employment, cost of living, production, etc., in the case
of economic indicators). It is evident that in the case of the urban
environment equally revealing indicators can be provided to de-
scribe existing conditions--say, with regard to air pollution, qual-
ity of housing, amount of open space available, etc.
"Accounts, " on the other hand, refer to comprehensive sys-
tems of data characterized by a balance between inputs and outputs
or inflows and outflows (such as national income accounts, input-
output accounts, or flow-of-funds accounts) or providing the value
of the total stock of various items in a total system, as in the case
of wealth accounts. We have a long way to go before we are able
to work out comprehensive social accounts for the environment.
However, as noted at a number of points, it is important to pro-
vide a broad picture of the urban environment because it is essen-
tial to be able to highlight interrelationships and externalities.
What seems possible at the present time is the provision of rather
comprehensive "policy measures" or "decision measures" that,
while not fully comprehensive or characterized by balanced two-
way flows, could nevertheless serve a unifying purpose in report-
ing on the environment specifically as an aid to governmental policy
decisions. These must include both stock and flow items and, be-
cause of the focus on public policy, emphasize outlays and invest-
ment and the returns on these.
Table 1 outlines the main elements of the data framework
proposed.
The first task involved would be to work out meaningful
"indicators of present condition" (column 1). for each of the items
listed. These would reflect present goals and standards (both
legislative and informal) with the data attempting to indicate where
we stand with regard to these goals and standards. The establish-
ment of standards is no mean task. It would require a good bit of
research as well as a sensitive reading of the standards that have
III-7
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Table 1 FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING POLICY MEASURES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
A. The
i.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
B. The
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Elements in the environment
Natural Environment
The airshed
The watershed
The open space-recreation "shed"
Quiet-and-noise zones
Olfactory zones
Micro-climate zones
Sunlight exposure
Spatial Environment
Underground space
Uncovered land
Covered land
Radiospectrum space
Airways space
Costs of Costs (or other Costs of Benefits of
environmental adverse consequences) achieving achieving
Indicators maintenance at of environmental standards at standards at
of present present levels abuses and shortfalls various levels various levels
condition Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
C. Transportation-Utilities Environment
1. Transportation:
a) commuting time; b) alternative modes,
including mass transit; c) congestion;
d) safety; e) stress; f) aesthetics (e.g.,
billboards, landscaping)
2. Water supply facilities
3. Sewerage facilities
4. Solid waste disposal
5. Electricity facilities
6. Gas facilities
7. Telephone facilities
8. Other communication facilities
III-E
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Table 1 FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING POLICY MEASURES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT (continued)
Indicators
of present
Elements in the environment condition
Costs of
environmental
maintenance at
present levels
Private Public
Costs (or other
adverse consequences)
of environmental
abuses and shortfalls
Private Public
Costs of
achieving
standards at
various levels
Private Public
Benefits of
achieving
standards at
various levels
Private Public
D. Community-Neighborhood Environment
1. Community characteristics:
a) mix (e.g., degree of segregation);
b) types and condition of structures and
land uses; c) community stresses;
d) design environment (densities, street
lighting, billboards, interest points,
landscaping, zoning, etc.)
2. Services environment (measures of
quality and nearness): a) educational-
cultural environment; b) personal safety
and protection; c) health facilities and
services; d) commercial facilities and
services; e) recreation facilities and
services; f) "caretaker" functions
E. Household Shelter
1. Housing condition
2. Crowding
3. Rats, roaches, and other pests
4. Plumbing
5. Household equipment
F. Workplaces
1. Safety
2. Amenities (e.g., eating facilities,
sanitation)
3, Work challenge indicators (assembly line,
freedom of movement, etc.)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
HI-9
-------
the broadest and most strongly held acceptance. This clearly is
an evolving task. In the first instance, the best standards at hand
would be employed. At the same time, it would be useful to high-
light the weaknesses of existing standards, particularly where too
narrow an interpretation of objectives to be achieved could be mis-
leading, and to explore the special characteristic of measures
within the different categories.
As Joseph Fisher has pointed out {in his chapter in the
"Preliminary Report on Environment" for the Panel on Social
Indicators of the U. S. Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare), the quality characteristics of the environment tend, to
a considerable extent, to be subjective, with considerable varia-
tion in the views of different individuals. Further, air pollution
and recreation opportunities, for example, affect different indi-
viduals quite differently, both physiologically and psychologically.
Another point deserves attention: The various aspects of the
natural environment are interrelated in numerous and sometimes
confusing ways. One way of abating industrial air pollution is by
filtering and washing smoke to prevent contaminants from going
into the atmosphere, and instead sluicing them out into the water
courses, thereby adding to water pollution. The interrelations ex-
tend beyond the realm of natural resources. For example, one
way of reducing pollution from automobiles would be to discourage
or prohibit certain uses, but this would greatly affect transporta-
tion and might also drastically alter the microenvironment in which
people live and work. Just as the various kinds of environmental
pollution tend to be interconnected, so also the measures for abat-
ing and controlling them tend to be interconnected. And one should
be cautious about interpreting a favorable movement over time in
an indicator of air pollution lest it is accompanied by an equal or
greater movement in the opposite direction in an indicator of water
pollution.
Concern for arriving at some overall indicator of environ-
mental quality in which the various interrelations and trade offs
can be included leads one toward the concept of net social benefit--
that is, total (or incremental) social benefit less social cost. This
concept of net social benefit can be applied to a particular kind of
environmental disturbance or it can be thought of in connection with
a large range of environmental effects.
The social indicators alone can provide only a limited part
of the story. If we are looking ultimately to policy, it would be
essential to get a picture also of the costs of our shortfalls, as
III-10
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well as the costs and anticipated benefits of actually fulfilling ex-
isting goals and standards, or higher-level goals and standards.
But this calls for more than indicators; here we would have to put
policy measures to work. The key categories that might be em-
ployed are suggested in table 1.
Thus, the reporting system proposed would set out, as a
second item, "costs of environmental maintenance at present
levels" (column 2), broken down by private and public costs wher-
ever possible. In almost every instance, substantial sums are al-
ready being spent in order to maintain existing environmental
conditions--no matter how unsatisfactory. This is true of the
present expenditures involved in keeping down air and water pollu-
tion; it is als.o true of the costs involved in trying to create a rela-
tively safe street environment and transportation environment.
The setting down of current cost figures would provide a rough
measure of the relative amount of effort directed at any one of the
items of interest in the environment. It would raise issues about
the priorities attached to the various subjects and it would also
raise questions such as whether we are getting our money's worth.
There is a tendency in most discussions of the environment to
think only in terms of the additional expenditures necessary to
achieve somewhat higher levels. This can be misleading, cer-
tainly as regards the relative emphasis to be given to different
activities. As in the other major items to be covered, breakdowns
in terms of the various sections of a metropolitan region (slums,
suburbs, etc.)., would provide a useful picture of the relative at-
tention being given to the various parts of the region.
Column 3 in the proposed reporting system calls for esti-
mates of the costs--or other adverse consequences--of environ-
mental abuses and shortfalls. In this, an attempt would be made,
not only to obtain rough estimates of such items as the costs re-
sulting from air pollution, but also of inadequate public services.
Such costs would be recorded in dollar terms wherever possible,
even if some heroic assumptions have to be made. In cases where
dollar costs are simply not to be had, sharply focused descriptions
or indicators of a non-cost nature would be useful. *
A sense of how much information can be conveyed by focused de-
scription is provided by the statements in the Supreme Court
1954 school decision on the losses attendant on a "separate-but-
equal" education system.
Ill-11
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Here, again, the specification of the standards to be achieved
would be essential, particularly in measuring shortfalls. It is
necessary to establish a wide variety of fairly narrow and specific
standards--e.g., for housing quality—as well as broader, more
aggregative goals, such as a satisfactory home and community en-
vironment. Not only must standards be quite specific in the case
of the environment, but they are also inevitably rather variable,
that is, they often have to cover a wide range. Thus, it is possible
to set up standards for various degrees of "purity" in the case of
air and water and to measure the cost of achieving such standards
as well as the cost of falling short of their achievement. The same
is true in the case of housing standards, standards of congestion,
and many other features that might be included under the environ-
mental rubric. To round out the picture, then, it would be neces-
sary to provide estimates of costs of achieving standards at various
levels (column 4).
Thus, the whole system is built on a recognition of the fact
that the quality of the environment is judged by the values of the
society, that different levels of achievement are possible, that
each of these has cost features attached--both in achieving the
given levels and in falling short of achieving them--and that bene-
fits are also to be derived from improvements inihe environment.
Unfortunately, these benefits are very much harder to define. In
some cases they can be fairly firm, particularly when the benefit
amounts to an avoidance of the cost of abuse or shortfall. But in
other cases they are much more general. Over time, however, it
might be increasingly possible to provide benefit estimates. Even
short of such figures, it would be possible to describe in general
terms the benefits of achieving specified standards and, thereby,
to provide a better basis for public judgment.
At a later stage it might be possible to introduce additional
types of indicators or other measures to round out the picture and
provide a better basis for evaluating the present and alternative
futures. One of these would be a "time budget" or measure of time
expenditures, which would provide a picture of the time spent in
major activities by various categories of individuals, and thus, in
a general way, suggest the relative importance of different kinds
of environments and the uses made of them.2 Such a measure, to-
gether with direct measures of intensity of use of services and
2See the Chapin-Logan paper on pp. 303-32.
Ill-12
-------
facilities as well as of homes, work places, and transportation,
would provide the basis for measurement of relative "exposure"
and the development of risk ratios. This, for example, would tend
to show the tremendous importance of the street in poor neighbor-
hoods, the extent to which some public facilities are overutilized
and others underutilized, and the relative exposure of people to
various areas of the city (thus emphasizing, for example, the
relatively great importance of small intown open spaces--such as
squares and school playgrounds--as compared to vast open spaces
far beyond the reach of most people). An intensity index could be
a very powerful tool for decision making in some of the environ-
mental items.
Differentiation in the "policy measures" not only needs to be
made with regard to various classes of communities within a me-
tropolis but also with regard to various age groups, income groups,
and racial and ethnic groups. Wherever pertinent, the indices or
measures should be in terms of age, income, and race and ethnic
categories as in the educational-cultural environment, in health,
and in recreation.
The indicators of present conditions should, wherever possi-
ble, provide information on three kinds of items: (1) the average
situation in the various communities for the key items, as well as
group distribution around the average; (2) improvement or deteri-
oration over time, and (3) extreme situations that deserve special
attention. In general, treatment of extreme situations is necessary
so that significant special problems are not overlooked: without
such items any reporting scheme would tend to be much too bland.
If the scheme is to serve policy and action purposes realistically,
a description of community stresses when the situation is explosive
or of pollution conditions when health is directly threatened should
not be lost in a mere deluge of data on averages.
FINAL NOTE
The information framework proposed here is essentially a
decision-making "model, " highlighting the present state of affairs,
what is deemed good and bad about it, the costs we suffer as a re-
sult of the shortcomings, and what is needed to bring the situation
up to higher standards. The implementation of such a model would
clearly require substantial effort but, when operational, it would
provide an extremely valuable decision-making tool. It has the
clear advantage of being close to policy and operations both in terms
III-13
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of its inputs and outputs; that is, on the one side, administrative or
operating data could be used as the main sources of information
while, on the other, it would provide a basis for policy decisions in
a direct and meaningful framework. It is taken as an article of
faith that governmental policy and action will be improved as
knowledge about the urban environment increases and alternative
possibilities can be reviewed in a broad and meaningful decision
framework.
Ill-14
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THE CONCEPT OF AMENITY RESOURCES*
Arthur A. Atkinson and Ira M. Robinson
Arthur A. Atkinson is Executive Director of the Institute
of Urban Ecology and a lecturer in Public Administration
and Urban Planning, University of Southern California.
Ira M. Robinson is Professor of City and Regional Planning
and Chairman of the Graduate Department of Urban and
Regional Planning, University of Southern California.
--Extracted from "Amenity Resources for Urban Living. "
In The Quality of the Urban Environment, edited by
Harvey S. Perloff, Washington, D. C., Resources for
the Future, Inc., to 1969.
-------
THE CONCEPT OP AMENITY RESOURCES
Arthur A. Atkinson and Ira M. Robinson
As more and more people cluster into urban regions, what
happens to the natural environment increasingly becomes a matter
for public policy interest. Much of this interest is centered on the
idea of "amenity resources"; although the concept of these highly
valued resources remains vague. With growth in population, in-
come, and leisure, pressures on such amenity resources can in-
crease precipitously. Under such circumstances, the "management"
of amenities becomes quite complex and can be extremely costly.
Clarification of the concept of amenities and a better understanding
of what might be called the amenity management process can con-
tribute to public policy in this area.
It is helpful in this respect to conceive of the urban environ-
ment as a system with certain inputs and outputs and a set of con-
version processes. Thus, if the outputs somehow fall short of our
expectations, it becomes evident that we must look both at the
quantity and quality of the inputs and at the processes by which they
are being transformed, utilized, and related to the end states
desired of the system. It also becomes clear that we must define
the outputs we desire and the functions they are to perform.
It has been argued that such a coldly calculating approach to
the design of systems which so deeply touch the quality of man's
life does violence to man's very spirit and to the values of human
freedom which underpin our society. To this, former Secretary of
Defense McNamara has replied: "To undermanage reality is not to
keep it free. It is simply to let some force other than reason shape
reality. That force may be unbridled emotion; it may be greed; it
may be agressiveness; it may be hatred; it may be ignorance; it may
be inertia; it may be anything other than reason. nl
JQuoted in "A. Changing City: Government, " Progressive Architec-
ture (August 1967), p. 123.
Ill-15
-------
In this paper we suggest that responses to. amenities make up
one of the outputs derived from man's environmental system; that'
these outputs can be "managed"; and that decisional criteria and
management systems can be developed to accomplish this task in a
rational and socially responsible manner. , ;
THE OBJECTS OF AMENITIES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
Although many distinguished writers on urban matters have
discussed amenities, few have attempted to specify the boundaries
of the subject, define the terms they use, or develop a conceptual
framework appropriate for consideration of the topic. The different
approaches to the subject are, however, suggestive.
In a paper prepared for the President's Commission on
National Goals, Catherine Bauer Wurster referred to amenities
as including "the New England village, " "the Gold Rush town, "
and "other pleasant communities with historic or merely rustic
flavor, " as well as natural amenities, such as open space for
recreational use, clean air, and water.
More recently, Jean Gottmann has argued that urban amenities
include "physical and cultural" components related to the "good life"
and has called for "a rapidly changing urban morphology, bringing
more amenities, and an actually good life, into the cities. " He re-
fers to "physical amenities, " as including attractive, climatologi-
cally pleasant surroundings and links the term with Riviera-type
environments, good landscaping, and urban beauty.
6
John Burchard has also linked urban beauty with am'enities,
and has described twelve amenity or urban beauty elements, including
the weather and sky, lakes, river banks, parks, and squares. 4
2Catherine Bauer Wurster, "Framework for an Urban Society, " in
Goals for Americans, ,The Report of the President's Commission
on National Goals (Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1960), pp. 225-47.
3
Jean Gottmann, "The Rising Demand for Urban Amenities, " in
Sam Bass Warner, Jr. (ed. ) Planning for a Nation of Cities (M I T
Press, 1966), 11. 163-78.
John Burchard, "Some Antidotes for Ugliness, " A I A Journal
(April 1965).
Ill-16
-------
He has also ranked various cities of the world in terms of an
"urban amenity score sheet, " based on twenty-four qualitative
characteristics, among which are: fine rivers, lakes, great parks,
trees and shrubbery, good air, generally pleasant climate, distin-
guished buildings, distinguished museums, fine libraries, diverse
neighborhoods, visible past, and art in the streets. 5
In discussing "the administration of the amenities, " Jon
Alexander has suggested that "those things beyond life's necessities
which make human life meaningful, we call amenities. Their func-
tion is the development of that in us which is uniquely human. ..
Amenities programs may be distinguished by whether they primarily
involve management of the environment, or primarily involve organi-
zation of activities of people.
Linking the notion of amenities with economic development
and population growth, Perloff and Wingo' have suggested that
certain features of the natural environment affect the pattern of
economic activity and distribution of population of a region. They
suggest that amenity resources include that special juxtaposition
of climate, land, coastline, and water offering conditions of living
which exert a strong pull on migrants from less happily situated
parts of the nation. They view the concept in terms of a special
constellation of environmental conditions that "affords conditions
of life highly sought after in an affluent and mobile society. "
John Burchard, "The Culture of Urban America" (Paper given at
50th Anniversary Meeting of American Institute of Planners,
February 1-6, 1968).
6Jon Alexander, "The Administration of the Amenities, " Public
Administration Review, Vol. 28 (January/February 1968), p. 55.
7
Harvey S. Perloff and Lowdon Wingo, Jr., "National Resource
Endowment and Regional Economic Growth, " in John Friedmann
and William Alonso (eds.), Regional Development and Planning,
A Reader (M. I. T. Press, 1964); Harvey S. Perloff and Lowdon
Wingo, Jr., "Planning and Development in Metropolitan Affairs, "
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 28, No. 2
(May 1962); Harvey S. Perloff, "'New1 Resources in an Urban Age, "
in Harold F. Wise (ed. ), America's Private Construction Industry
and the Future American City (Proceedings of a Symposium spon-
sored by American Cement Corporation and Urban America, Inc.,
January 1966).
Ill-17
-------
In Great Britain the term amenity has been in common use
among planners for a great many years. A standard British text-
book on urban planning lists one of the objectives of planners as the
"preservation, protection, and evolution of amenity, " and defines
this function to include "preservation of buildings of special archi-
tectural and historical interest; control of advertisements; concern
with architectural appearance; preservation of trees and woodlands;
protection of living or working conditions. "8 Sir William Holford,
a highly respected British architect-planner, has stated that
"amenity is not a single quality, it is a whole catalogue of values.
It includes the beauty that an artist sees and an architect designs
for; it is the pleasant and familiar scene that history has evolved;
in certain circumstances it is even utility--the right thing in the
right place--shelter, warmth, light, clean air, domestic service
.. . and comfort stations.
Reflecting agreement with this broad definition of the term,
Gunnar Myrdal has called for "uniform standards in regard to all
community amenities" which he then defines as including every-
thing from "the provision of streets, parks, and playgrounds and
their upkeep to the building of schools and the improvements of the
level of teaching.
Thus, an amenity can be defined in many ways. Some have
linked it with qualities of desirability which lead to enhanced eco-
nomic value of properties or which exert a lure to potential immi-
grants; some define it as any phenomenon which results in a
pleasurable experience to those who are exposed to it; while others
8Nathaniel Lichfield, Economics of Planned Development (London:
The Estates Gazette, Ltd., 1956), p. 32.
g
Cited in Daniel R. Mandelker, Green Belts and Urban Growth
(University of Wisconsin Press, 1962), p. 32.
Gunnar Myrdal, "National Planning for Healthy Cities: Two
Challenges to Affluence, " in Warner (ed.), Planning for a
Nation of Cities, pp. 3-22.
Ill-18
-------
suggest that it is any comfort or convenience beyond the level of
life's necessity. Some include man-made facilities in their definition
while others confine the use of the term to certain natural features
of the environment.
The definitional breadth which surrounds the use of the term
is also revealed by Webster, where the range of definitions includes:
"... the quality of being pleasant or agreeable . . . the attractiveness
and aesthetic or nonmonetary value of real estate... something
that conduces to physical or material comfort or convenience or to
a pleasant or agreeable life ... an area or location that provides
comforts, conveniences, or attractive surroundings to residents
or visitors. "
It therefore seems clear that any useful discussion of urban
amenity resources must focus initially on the relevant meaning
of the term and the phenomena which one wants to include.
Ill-19
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A DESCRIPTION OF AN
ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION SYSTEM*
Ira L. Whitman
Norbert Dee
John T. McGinnis
David C. Fahringer
Janet K. Baker
Mr. Whitman is the Director of Urban and
Regional Development Programs at Battelle
Columbus Laboratories.
Messrs. Dee, McGinnis, Fahringer, and
Ms. Baker are also with Battelle Columbus
Laboratories.
*This article represents an extraction from a
larger report, the "Design of an Environmental
Evaluation System" prepared for the U. S.
Department of Interior by Ira L. Whitman and
staff, Battelle Columbus Laboratories, June
1971, pp. 7-10.
-------
A DESCRIPTION OF AN
ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION SYSTEM
Ira L. Whitman
Norbert Dee
John T. McGinnis
David C. Fahringer
Janet K. Baker
INTRODUCTION
The environment represents the most complex system known
to man for it truly represents the complete set of resources, phys-
ical and biological, that exist on earth, as well as the infinite in-
teractions that occur among this set of resources.
An environmental evaluation system (EES), to be practical
and effective, must greatly simplify the environment into a rela-
tively small number of measurements and indicators that can be
used to determine whether or not a proposed water development
project has a significant impact upon the environment. An EES,
to be of value, must be comprehensive and broad enough to include
all relevant types of environmental measurements and indicators
as determined through an interdisciplinary perspective. An EES,
to be utilized in the water resources planning process, must be
structured in an orderly and systematic framework that will enable
replication from project to project and yet be flexible enough to be
useful over a wide range of water resources development alterna-
tives. In short, an EES must be an analytical tool that strikes a
balance between too little detail and too much detail--a tool that
can be valuable in the water resources planning process if used in-
telligently and honestly.
This chapter describes the structure, content, and values of
the EES that the Battelle-Columbus research team has developed
for the Bureau of Reclamation. In the judgment of the research
team, the system presented on the following pages best meets the
condition ascribed by the Bureau at the outset of this project and
will meet the needs of the Bureau in being responsive to the Na-
tional Environmental Policy Act of 1969.
Ill-20
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STRUCTURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION SYSTEM
To simplify the structure of the EES, terms at four levels
of generality are used as follows:
Level l--Most general terms
ENVIRONMENTAL
CATEGORIES
Level 2--Intermediate terms
ENVIRONMENTAL
COMPONENTS
Level 3--Specific terms
ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS
Level 4--Most specific terms
ENVIRONMENTAL
MEASUREMENTS
These terms are arranged in a hierarchical order within the
EES as follows:
TOTALITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Level 1
ENVIRONMENTAL CATEGORIES
Level 2
ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS
Level 3
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS
Level 4
ENVIRONMENTAL MEASUREMENTS
111-21
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However, as an overview to understanding the entire system,
it should be recognized that the ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS
are the key level within the system. The system has been designed
so that each parameter represents — on its own--a unit of environ-
mental significance worthy of separate consideration. Thus, a ma-
jor change in any single parameter represents a "red flag" of en-
vironmental significance that requires detailed attention during the
planning of a water resources project.
The EES is designed with 4 environmental categories, 17 en-
vironmental components, and 66 environmental parameters. Each
parameter is then defined according to one or more specific mea-
surement, as appropriate.
CONTENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION SYSTEM
Each of the environmental categories, components, and
parameters will be discussed separately later in this section. To
put the entire system in perspective prior to this discussion, all
of the elements within the system are presented below.
Environmental Categories
I. ECOLOGY
II. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
III. ESTHETICS
IV. HUMAN INTEREST
Environmental Components
I. ECOLOGY
(A) Species &
Populations
(B) Habitats &
Communities
(C) Ecosystems
II. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
(D) Water Pollution
(E) Air Pollution
(F) Land Pollution
(G) Noise Pollution
III-22
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III. ESTHETICS
(H) , Land
(I) Air
(J ) Water
(K) Biota
(L) Manmade Objects
IV. HUMAN INTEREST
(N) Education-Scientific
Significance
(O) Historical
Significance
(P) Cultural Significance
(Q) Mood-Atmosphere
Significance
Environmental Parameters
(A)
I. ECOLOGY
Species & Populations
(1) Rare and endangered plant
and animal species
Productive plant species
Game animals
Other animals
Resident & migratory birds
Sport Fisheries
Commercial fisheries
Pestilent plant and animal
species
Parasites
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(B) Habitats and
Communities
(10) Species diversity
(11) Food chains
(12) Land use for
habitats and
communities
(C) Ecosystems
(13) Productivity rate
(14) Hydrologic budget
(15) Nutrient budget
II. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
(D) Water Pollution
(16) Algal blooms
(17) Dissolved oxygen
(18) Evaporation
(19) Fecal coliforms
(20) Nutrients
(21) Pesticides, herbicides,
defoliants
(22) pH
(23) Physical river
characteristics
(24) Sediment load
(25) Stream flow
(26) Temperature
(27) Total dissolved solids
(28) Toxic substances
(29) Turbidity
(E) Air Pollution
(30) Carbon monoxide
(31) Hydrocarbons
(32) Particulate
matter
(33) Photochemical
ox id ants
(34) Sulfur oxides
(F) Land Pollution
(35) Land use and
misuse
(36) Soil erosion
(37) Soil pollution
(G) Noise Pollution
(38) Noise
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III. ESTHETICS
(H) Land
(39) Land forms
(40) Geologic surface material
(I)
Air
(41)
Pleasantness of sounds
(J) Water
(42)
(43)
Surface characteristics
Water-land interface
characteristics
(K) Biota
(44) Vegetation
(45) Fauna
(L) Man-Made Objects
(46) Visual
(47) Condition
(48) Consonance with
environment
(M) Composition
(49) Interaction of
land, air, water,
and man-made
objects
(50) Color
IV. HUMAN INTEREST
(N) Educational-Scientific Significance (P)
(51) Geological significance
(52) Ecological significance
(53) Archeological significance
(54) Unusual water phenomenon
(O) Historical Significance
(55) Related to persons
(56) Related to events (Q)
(57) Related to religions and
cultures
(58) Related to architecture
and styles
(59) Related to the
frontier"
western
Cultural Significance
(60) Related to
Indians
(61) Related to reli-
gious groups
(62) Related to ethnic
groups
Mood- Atmosphere
Significance
Tel) Isolation-
solitude
(64) Awe-inspiration
(65) "Oneness" with
nature
(66) Mystery
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The content of the EES is designed to be as consistent between
each category and each component as is possible. However, it will
be immediately recognized that there are significant differences in
the types of parameters that one is able to designate in one category
compared to those in another. There are three primary reasons
for this diversity.
(1) The tremendous diversity between category types.
(2) The ability to quantify relationships and values in
each category is different.
(3) More is known on how to express quality in some
categories than others--difference between objective
and subjective evaluation.
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IV. QOL: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES
-------
TOWARD BALANCED GROWTH:
QUANTITY WITH QUALITY
A Summary of the Report to the President by the National
Goals Research Staff.
Report to the President by the National Goals Research Staff,
Washington, D. C., 1970.
-------
TOWARD BALANCED GROWTH:
QUANTITY WITH QUALITY
Summary of the Report to the President by the
National Goals Research Staff, July 18, 1970
President Nixon established the National Goals Research Staff
July 13, 1969. The role assigned to the Staff was to analyze social
trends, make projections about the kind of society that could result
if present trends continue, forecast future developments and pose
alternatives for the future domestic life of the Nation. The Staff
did not undertake to set goals or to be a planning office. Rather,
it studied and compared a variety of national domestic strategies
that are available to the Nation and that can help in making the
kind of informed choices essential to guide the processes of change.
The past year's work of the NGRS represented an experiment
in supporting the formulation of national policies. One objective
of the experiment was to aid in the improvement of the national
decision-making processes of public and private institutions by
anticipating events rather than by simply reacting to "crisis" situ-
ations. A second objective was to provide longer-range concepts
of future conditions of our society in the recognition that the choices
made today will importantly affect the kind of society we will have
in 10, 20, or--in some cases--even 50 years. A third objective
was to provide the American people with information which would
facilitate their participation in setting the Nation's goals and re-
lated policies.
In connection with this third objective, the President directed
the Staff to prepare a public report by July 4th of this year. He
stated that the report should "serve as a focus for the kind of lively
widespread public discussion that deserves to go into decisions
affecting our common future. "
The report of the National Goals Research Staff takes its cen-
tral theme from the President's call, in his State of the Union mes-
sage, for the development of a policy on national growth. The re-
port examines a number of areas of American life where the issues
of the nature and direction of growth are being argued. But, in-
creasingly, we have become aware that growth is not enough. We
have become alarmed at the threats to our environment posed by
industrial and technological progress. We have developed a new
and acute awareness that the quality of life cannot be measured in
quantitative terms.
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Concern has bred alarm, and some have urgently demanded
that we call a .halt to growth altogether. Yet, as the report points
out, our need is not to stop growth but to redirect it. We can have
quantity with quality. In fact, given our rising levels of expecta-
tion, we cannot have quality without quantity. But it is equally
true that quantity without quality is no longer adequate either as a
goal or as a standard of measurement. Plainly, we need to develop
a concept of "balanced growth" and the guidance mechanisms through
which it can be achieved on a sustainable basis. Many of the policy
debates of this coming decade will be over how we strike the
balances.
Making intelligent policy choices becomes increasingly com-
plex as society itself becomes more complex, and as the conse-
quences of various courses of action become more far-reaching
and more intricately intertwined.
Though the choices are more complex, our means of making
those choices have also been greatly advanced.
The vast increase in scientific knowledge, in technological
capability, in our understanding of the economic and social forces
that shape our society, all greatly increase both our capacity and
responsibility to make intelligent choices about our future.
Of all the advances in our understanding of the ways in which
human institutions work, none is more significant than those we
now are making in our understanding of the means by which results
that we want can be achieved and those we do not want can be
avoided.
The report emphasizes that as we choose our goals for 1976
and beyond, it is vital that the process of decision be as broadly
based as possible--not only involving the intelligence and the energy
of people everywhere, but also inspiring an active sense of partic-
ipation--'^ role for everyone. "
This report is meant to inspire debate--and to help give that
debate form, direction, and meaning.
If people are to make their wishes felt effectively, it is im-
portant that they be aware of what the real issues are--that is,
what the real questions turn on, where the "pressure points" are,
and what the considerations are that must be weighed in any re-
sponsible determination of a particular policy. By presenting
some of the emerging major debates in this form, it is the
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objective of the Report that informed, effective, and constructive
discussion of the issues involved will be encouraged on the broadest
possible basis.
A summary of each of the chapters of the Report follows.
CHAPTER 1--EMERGING DEBATES
America appears to be at a point of profound change, fre-
quently characterized as that from an industrial society to a "post
industrial society "--from a society in which production of goods
was of primary concern to one dominated more by services and the
generation and use of new knowledge. Consequently, we are in a
period of marketed social change, one aspect of which is the search
for a growth policy to guide that change. This report examines
several areas in which the choice of a future growth policy is ex-
plicitly or implicitly being debated. Its intent is to use these case
examples as a part of a learning experience, as one discrete step
in the evolution of a policy of balanced growth, as called for by the
President. The approach is analytical and not prescriptive. The
purpose is to aid the American people and their representatives in
what is assumed to be a long process for evolving a growth policy.
The key substantive areas in which the problem of growth is
being debated are: population growth and distribution, environment,
education, basic natural science, technology assessment, and
consumerism. In general, these topical areas do not correspond
to the major social problems with which we are presently concerned,
including those of our cities, campus unrest, the Vietnam War, and
race relations. These represent dissatisfactions over our perfor-
mance according to our established priorities.
Probably the major message that comes from the existing
debates over a growth policy is not that our institutions have
proven incapable of doing their job. Rather, many of our institutions
have performed very well the tasks which we set for them a few
decades'ago. However, is so doing, they have created unantici-
pated problems with which we must now deal, and they must be
reoriented toward the tasks that are appropriate in a society cap-
able of a new level of performance. The range of criteria whereby
we will judge institutional performance will be broader in scope
and longer in time perspective. An essential part of this period
of transition is the attempt to shift from a reactive form of public
decision making, in which we respond to problems when they are
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forced upon us, to an anticipatory form in which we try either to
avoid them or be prepared to deal with them as they emerge.
It is the hallmark of our country that Americans have ad-
justed to change while preserving the basic qualities of their insti-
tutions. This has happened a considerable number of times in our
history. In the course of this history, a predominant theme has
been one of economic growth, and an accommodation to a larger
population. At no time was economic growth considered so domi-
nate a goal that it obscured all other concerns, but neither was the
growth per se viewed as other than a good thing.
Today, for the first time, we find the virtues of economic
growth questioned, and this issue is put in popular terminology as
one of "quantity versus quality. " This is, in the view of this re-
port, a false phrasing of the issue, since the new qualitative goals
being proposed and the old goals yet unmet can be achieved only if
we have continued economic growth. The issue is better put as
one of how we can ensure continued economic growth while direct-
ing our resources more deliberately to filling our new values.
A large portion of the explanation for this seems to lie in our
demonstrated ability to achieve economic stability and growth in
the period following the passage of the Employment Act of 1946.
Even though our economy is at the moment in a period of transi-
tion, the pervading public and official view is that we are a Nation
of growing, unprecedented economic resources.
At the same time that we have become a Nation that can afford
to care we have also become a Nation that cannot afford not to care.
The past decade has been marked by an emerging sense of con-
science for the plight of the underprivileged, an awareness of so-
cial and economic problems that are the unanticipated consequence
of our past actions, a resolution that we can guide our affairs more
rationally, and simultaneously, a broad popular demand for citizen
participation in the management of their own fate. While this was
happening, we also developed new techniques of decision making
whose promise spurred the resolution to run things more rationally,
but whose full potential is incompletely understood or tested.
While this resolution to run our affairs both more rationally
and more effectively was emerging, two complicating circum- >
stances arose. The Vietnam War placed a strain on our admitted
large resources and belatedly forced us to recognize the necessity
of considering priorities more seriously. And, a more complex
model of how to go about purposive action evolved in part from the
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ecologists' experience with the environment, and in part from our
increasing knowledge of social science and our mixed experience
in attempting social and political reform.
We thus find ourselves at a point at which the following things
are true: We have rising expectations and changing values concern-
ing the goals we should set for ourselves both in resolving existing
inequities and in improving the quality of our lives. However, while
our resources are large and growing, they are finite and we must
set priorities more deliberately. In compensation for this compli-
cation we have the promise of more rational methods of public
decision making as a way of selecting and implementing our pri-
ority goals. But, this must be brought about in a context in which
there is greater public participation, and greater recognition of
the complexities of the world--both social and environmental--in
which we live.
CHAPTER 2--POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
In a nation that once valued its population size and growth,
and in which the phrase "fastest growing" was attached to the name
of proud municipalities, the question of overall population size and
distribution has come under active debate.
The question of population size in the United States is not
Malthusian. The issue is not whether we can feed and clothe a
population of any size we can realistically envisage, or even sup-
ply it with the expanding amount of energy it may demand. It is
rather that of whether a technologically advanced and industrially
prosperous nation wants, or can continue to pay the price of con-
gestion and contamination that comes from our overall affluence.
It is suggested that our size may be limited by the ability of the
environment to absorb the wastes that result from our economic
success.
Students of the overall size of our population are in no agree-
ment as to precisely what the size will be by the year 2, 000 nor
on what optimum population size for a nation such as ours would
be. But, more recent projections suggest that the increase in our
population over the next 30 years may be considerably less than
the additional 100 million that had generally been forecasted. In
fact, it may even be that the present rate of increase will slacken
off so that we will reach the zero growth rate that some demog-
raphers have been advocating.
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However, the issue of population distribution is a different
matter, and one to be taken seriously regardless of what may be
the upper limit of the population size. Our population has been
concentrating increasingly, not only in cities, but more and more
proportionately into a few rather large urban masses. This has
resulted in a lowering of the quality of life in both urban and rural
areas. Projection of such a migration pattern is actually a de facto
distribution policy since it will affect such decisions as industrial
plant location and other types of investment which will make the
prophecy of increasing concentration self-fulfilling.
We have before us a set of decisions. One which appears not
to be urgent is that of overall size of the population--even after the
effects of a considerable amount of immigration are taken into ac-
count. Apropos of population distribution, we need to decide on
whether or not we will adopt a deliberate strategy to encourage in-
ternal migration to negate the forecasts of ever-growing urban con-
gestion in a few megalopolis. A viable option for such an alternate
strategy is a policy of encouraging growth in alternate growth cen-
ters away from the large urban masses, coupled with a complemen-
tary effort of the use of new towns.
CHAPTER 3--ENVIRONMENT
Man is redefining his relationship to his environment. He has
progressed from fearing, to understanding, to using, to abusing, and
now to worrying about the physical and biological world about him.
Throughout all but the very recent history of the United States, our
relationship to the environment has been one of exploitation. We
have seen our natural endowment as a source of riches to be ex-
tracted and used, or later, to be extracted and processed. Con-
cern for the environment was generally limited to whether or not
we were exhausting our inheritance of sources of food, energy,
and materials.
The current interest in the environment has two distinctively
novel emphases. The first is that the limitations that the environ-
ment places on our activities may not be on the input side (sources
of food, energy, and materials), but on the output side (a place to
dispose of our wastes). The second, which is closely related to
the first, is that the environment, in addition to having a limited
capacity to absorb wastes, is a complex ecological system in
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which intervention of an apparently minor sort can, and often does,
have far-reaching consequences through a chain of unsuspected
reactions.
Both of these aspects of thinking about the environment have
important consequences on the way we think about other things.
They raise the question of whether or not there may be an upper
limit on our economic growth as a consequence of the limitations
on how much waste can be absorbed. And, the model of complex
ecological systems affects our whole way of thinking about the
consequences of our action not only in the environmental sphere,
but also in the social sphere where we are coming to realize that
causation is just as complex.
Some scientists and other anxious citizens assume a dooms-
day model of the future in which increased economic production
will drive us to our destruction. In response, others propose
what is called a paradise-regained model which would return us al-
most to a state of nature. Fortunately, the doomsday model does
not forecast that which is inevitable, and the latter, which would
probably be unattainable if tolerable, need not be entertained.
A mixed strategy of response to our environmental problems
is proposed. We need to expand our inadequate knowledge of eco-
logical systems. But while expanding this knowledge, we must
take those measures which we know are called for. We need to
consider our current technological and economic alternatives in
the light of long-range ecological balance. Additionally, we need
to resolve conflicts between our demands for products and ser-
vices, and the depletion and pollution generated by them.
The market mechanism can and should be used as one of the
devices for regulating these demands. Government should play a
role through appropriate regulations, taxes, subsidies, and stan-
•dard setting. Since environmental problems and their solutions are
of a global nature, we must and are beginning to act in concert
with the other nations of the world.
Our environmental problems are a result of our technological
and economic successes and of our philosophical view of nature.
Now we must learn to use our technology and our economic output
better to bring us in harmonious relationship to that environment.
As will be found in other sections of this report, it is becoming
apparent that the relatively narrow criteria by which we have, in
the past, judged technical and economic progress must be expanded
to consider a wider range of consequences.
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CHAPTER 4--EDUCATION
We have an educational system that,is in many respects un-
paralleled. It has grown in size and resources to the point where
we have nearly universal education through the secondary schools
and a proportion of our population attending institutions of higher
education that is unprecedented. Yet, this system is under severe
attack and criticism; it is seen as having been set up to serve the
needs of an America that has greatly changed in the intervening
years. There are many who argue that it is necessary for the
schools to deemphasize quantitative expansion along traditional
lines and emphasize adaptation to the needs of a rapidly changing
society.
In the past, the public has equated going to school with edu-
cation. The role of the school was to transmit information and
instill traditional values. The society of today is one changing
so rapidly that skills and information become outmoded, and tra-
ditional values are under challenge. Furthermore, the proportion
of information that children receive from the mass media is so
large and the range of values to which they are exposed so diverse
that it may well be that the schools should be devoted to giving
them the cognitive skills for integrating information, and a frame-
work within which to sort out the diverse values to which they are
exposed.
In addition to what may fundamentally be a new orientation
demanded of the schools, they are being asked to respond to cur-
rent problems in two ways. First, it is said that they should be
relevant to the needs of the student, which is to say that they
should teach him as an individual to be able to deal with contem-
porary problems. Second, the higher institutions of learning, in
particular, are being asked to solve the present problems of
society.
The choices with which the schools are confronted involved,
on the one hand, teaching problem-solving skills, fostering the
development of students as individuals, and conducting problem-
oriented research. Or, on the other hand, there is the option of
continuing to transmit the old knowledge and values at the primary
and secondary levels, and continuing to transmit the traditional
knowledge and seeking to develop knowledge for its own sake at
the higher levels of education.
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By and large, it would seem that we must look for some ap-
propriate mix rather than shift over to a complete doctrine of rele-
vance. In the meantime, we need to develop further understanding
of the educational process and of how to evaluate it. We must fur-
ther develop an experimental posture toward innovation in educa-
tion which will reflect our basic uncertainty as to how to go about
the many problems with which the educational system is faced.
All of the above holds for the educational system at large.
With respect to the children of minority groups, we have the spe-
cial task of ensuring equal educational opportunity, and of under-
standing and dealing with those special disadvantages which are
imposed on them by their environment.
Taken all in all, the educational system, which is the crucial
single institution for the development of our citizenry so that they
can live happily, shape our system, wisely, and contribute to both
the direction and rate of its growth, is in a state of severe stress.
The educational system is having its own "growth" problems which,
if not solved, will have a profound impact on the growth of the
Nation as a whole.
CHAPTER 5--BASIC NATURAL SCIENCE
The American scientific establishment has grown and the
capacities of its researchers have developed to the point that our
capability in basic research has made us preeminent in the world.
Having achieved that position, basic natural science finds itself in
a crisis of both financial and social support. Historically, Fed-
eral funding, the main source of basic scientific research, has
been large relative to the scientific resources available to do the
work. In the recent past, as the scientific establishment continued
to grow, the supply of funds leveled off so that the previous rela-
tionship has in effect been reversed. There is too little money
relative to the number of scientists involved. At the same time,
in the past half decade, scientists and their works began to come
under fire as a result of the association of scientists with the mil-
itary, and with industrial technology which has produced environ-
mental pollution. In concert with these two developments, our
national priorities have shifted to the solution of social problems,
and basic scientists are being asked to shift their focus of work
from the development of knowledge for its own sake to working on
basic problems which have relevance for today's social issues.
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The result is serious strain on an institution which furnishes
us with our most fundamental understanding of ourselves and of
our world, and which has been the source from which technology
has evolved in recent times to serve economic growth. In the past
few decades, we have been very successful in making basic science
useful, but now we find ourselves in a crisis as to how to ensure its
future usefulness, and of how to balance the long-range utility of
basic knowledge with present urgent needs.
One of the major decisions with which we are faced is that of
the level of support we will furnish basic science in the future.
This is clouded by the problem of making basic research "useful"
in the short run. It is in the nature of basic research that answers
to practical problems may be found in unsuspected areas of inquiry.
Some problem areas, at a given time, have a greater potential for
exploitation than others. Setting research priorities on the grounds
of probable utility is often a choice of possible short-term benefits
against the longer-term ones which might result from a more rapid
expansion of the basic pool of knowledge by permitting science to
pursue the internal logic of its own development.
What is needed, and may in fact be developing, is a forum in
which the partially conflicting needs for maintaining the integrity
of the core of basic research and the practical needs of the society
are resolved.
In conjunction with the need to work out an appropriate level
and distribution of funding, we must face the fact that an articulate
minority are attacking the very rationale and spirit of science and
of rational inquiry itself--the most elementary tools man has for
the orderly guidance of his affairs.
CHAPTER 6--TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
The Nation's infatuation with technology is at a turning point
as profound as that of its relationship to the environment. Histor-
ically, we have tended to do that which was technically possible,
if it were economically advantageous, on the simple ground that
this represented "progress. " However, as technology has in-
creased with great rapidity, it has forced on us increasing un-
planned social change and environmental problems we did not
anticipate and do not want. At the same time, our notions of the
complexity of social and environmental problems have made us
increasingly cautious with respect to the actions we plan to take.
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Our level of affluence has given us a longer time perspective
within which to assess the consequences of our actions. As with
so many other of the debates with which we have been concerned,
the technology assessment movement--which embodies this new
attitude toward technology--asks us to judge our actions by a
wider range of criteria than we have used in the past.
Formally, technology assessment is a term coined in the
Congress to label a set of procedures to aid the Congress in making
decisions for the orderly introduction of new technology and the
evaluation of technology already in use. However, it is better
viewed as a manifestation of a larger phenomenon of a decreasing
willingness of both the public and its representatives to tolerate
the undesirable side effects of things done in the name of progress.
The public has protested effectively against the displacement of
people by highways, aircraft noise, and the building of new power-
plants. Specific actions have indicated that we have the disposition
to forego immediate economic benefits in order to avoid social and
environmental costs which once would have been accepted with no
more than pro forma consideration. The existence of formal tech-
nology assessment, now in both the congressional and executive
branches, is to be taken as no more than a specific manifestation
of the broader concern.
There are major policy problems with the prospect of doing
technology assessment in a formal fashion. One is that of estab-
lishing criteria for deciding which among all of the new technolo-
gies emerging shall be selected for assessment, and how inspec-
tions, standards, and controls shall be established. Another is
the extent to which technology assessment shall become a "way of
life" in the American economy with increased consideration of
the second-order consequences of technology through all strata of
decision making, both private and public. 'Most general, however,
is the problem of how we will manage the impact of the possibility
of technology's adverse effects with the demand for new technology
to ensure economic development. Among other things, we may
have to accelerate our efforts to detect new benign technology op-
portunities and facilitate their rapid introduction to offset the im-
pact of inhibiting the introduction and use of harmful technology.
CHAPTER 7--CONSUMERISM
American business prides itself in its ability to develop, pro-
duce, and deliver a great flow of new technologically sophisticated
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products of a wide variety. Yet, its very success in this has pro-
duced a wave of complaints. There have been consumer movements
in the past based on issues of product safety and quality, deceptive
practices, monopolistic practices, aesthetics, and so on. How-
ever, what marks the new consumer movement as distinctive is
that it features resentment that the stream of new products is so
large and the differences among products so small that choice
among them is said to have been made difficult. Furthermore, it
is argued that the technical complexity of many of them is such
that the untrained individual cannot evaluate them.
The result has been the evolution of a system of consumer
protection which, since 1964, has featured commissions and spe-
cial assistants at the highest levels of Government, increased
activity in the regulatory agencies, and finally in 1969, a Presi-
dential enunciation of a "Buyer's Bill of Rights. " Laws have been
passed and new standards set. Testing procedures have been
tightened. Consumer information services have grown.
The anomaly of the present consumerism market is that a
highly market-oriented economy has produced a situation, in
which it is said by at least an influential minority, that the doc-
trine of consumer sovereignty--the nation that the consumer can
regulate business by his free choices--is no longer tenable for
some undefinable but sizable segment of the marketplace. Some
extreme manifestations of this position would have a considerable
impact on the way our economy runs. Already, the consumerism
movement has had an important and probably beneficial influence
on business practice. This movement consists of a myriad of
small issues, but the large one confronting us is that of developing
a proper policy posture that will give the desirable amount and
kind of protection to the consumer and, at the same time, preserve
a business environment in which the economy can continue to grow.
The consumerism movement has been regarded by some as
a fad. It is important to note that the complaints which stimulate
the present consumer concerns are an integral part of technolog-
ically sophisticated, market-oriented economy such as we have
so deliberately developed in recent decades and which seems cer-
tain to continue.
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CHAPTER 8--ECONOMIC CHOICE AND BALANCED GROWTH
The search for a policy of balanced growth has major impli-
cations for the allocation of economic resources and is crucially
dependent upon economic growth. Conventional economic policy
goals include full employment, an acceptable rate of growth, price
stability, and a satisfactory balance of payments. Added to these
now is a new set of goals under the vaguely defined label of "quality
of life. " These concerns mirror a desire by many Americans to
create a society better able to enjoy what it produces, and to grow
in ways harmonious with its physical environment.
The setting of new goals and the establishment of priorities
among them are matters of social choice. Economic analysis can
help in understanding some of the central aspects of these choices,
but it cannot dictate the answers. The choices themselves are
those of the people, expressed individually through their private
institutions and through their governments. The key choices are
among competing ends. Economic analysis can contribute toward
the meeting of these ends once they are chosen, and an economic
policy of sustained growth can make it possible for more of these
ends to be achieved.
CHAPTER 9--TOWARD BALANCED GROWTH
This report is motivated by the President's explicit call for
the development of a national growth policy. It is assumed that
both the meaning and form of this policy will evolve and that con-
tributions such as this are but steps in that direction. This report
takes an inductive approach to the overall problem by identifying
a number of issue areas in which it seems meaningful to say that
a debate bearing on growth policy is taking place. The issues which
were selected are those which the National Goals Research Staff
judged would make a distinctive contribution to the Nation's aware-
ness. An example of an exclusion might be that of urban problems,
a subject truly essential to our growth, but a matter much dis-
cussed by others of greater competence on that topic.
The major lesson to be extracted from the substantive prob-
lems reviewed here is the high desirability of an explicit growth
policy with a relatively long-term perspective. In instance after
instance, it was found that today's problems are a result of suc-
cesses as defined in yesterday's terms. The object lesson has
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not been that our Institutions are incapable, but that in the past
we set performance criteria for them in terms now recognized as
too narrow but which at one time were appropriate. We have be-
come widely aware of the second-order consequences of our action,
and we have demonstrated our resolution to take them into account
when we can anticipate them. What we need is increased ability to
anticipate those consequences and an explicit policy framework'
within which to evaluate them.
The central ingredient in the development of a growth policy
will be for the American people to decide just what sort of country
they want this to be. This process is in being, as reflected in
these debates. Hopefully, this report and other events will serve
as vehicles to facilitate discussion and choice. To further facilitate
this process, we will have to develop better institutional arrange-
ments for the people to relate to the leadership 'and better mech-
anisms of policy analysis to serve all parties.
While it is clear that an explicit growth policy is desirable,
it seems equally clear from these debates that it is likely that
what will emerge is not a single policy but a package of policies
consistent with each other, each designed to meet one or more of
our national objectives. This package of policies will shape both
the directions of our society and the balance among the many seg-
ments of society in terms of priorities and interrelationships. It
will not be a set of policies which the government alone can develop
and effect. It will be a set of policies which emerge from the deci-
sions of the government and the people, and which, in turn, will
affect the decisions of both the government and the people.
These are only a few examples of possible developments,
many of which have begun or may begin to emerge in the 1970's.
Many of these developments may not appear in the 1970's or even
later, but the list suggests that, as. we view the prospects for our
Nation, we must broaden our vision to take into account a variety
of developments which will bring many new dimensions to human
experience.
As illustrated by these selected trends and forecasts, the
1970's promise to be a decade of extraordinary change. Our
Nation in 1980 could be one in which cities are more clogged with
immovable traffic, air is less breathable, streams polluted to the
point where expensive processes will be necessary to get usable
water, seashores deteriorating more rapidly, and our people
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suffering needlessly from having not developed the necessary insti-
tutional arrangements for achieving the promise of this decade of
change>.
On the other hand, America in 1980 can be a Nation which
will have begun to restore its environment, to have more balanced
distribution of regional economic development and of population; a
Nation which has abolished hunger and many forms of social in-
equality and deprivation; and a Nation which will have begun to de-
velop the new social institutions and instruments necessary to turn
the promises of this decade of change into reality.
If we are to see the second of these possible futures realized
in the America of 1980, we must begin now to define what we wish
to have as our national goals, and to develop in both our public and
private institutions the specific policies and programs which will
move us toward these goals.
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WELFARE MEASUREMENT AND THE GNP
Edward P. Denison*
Edward F. Denison is a Senior Fellow of The
Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C.
Extracted from: Survey of Current Business, Office of
Business Economics, Washington, D. C.: Department
of Commerce, January 1971, p. 13.
*The views expressed are those of the author and do not
purport to 'represent the views of the other staff members,
officers or trustees of The Brookings Institution or of the
Office of Business Economics.
-------
WELFARE MEASUREMENT AND THE GNP
Edward F. Denison
It would be enormously convenient to have a single, generally
accepted index of the economic and social welfare of the people of
the United States. A glance at it would tell us how much better or
worse off we had become each year and each decade. We could
judge the desirability of any proposed action by asking whether it
would raise or lower this index.
Some recent discussion seems almost to imply that such an
index could be constructed. Articles in the popular press even
criticize GNP because it is not such a complete index of welfare,
on the one hand ignoring the fact that it was never intended to be
such an index, and on the other, suggesting that with appropriate
changes it could be converted to one.
COMPONENTS OF A WELFARE MEASURE
A single, generally acceptable index of welfare cannot be
constructed. This ought to be obvious, but it may be instructive
to state some of the changes in society such a measure would have
to encompass and the problems its compilers would face.
OUTPUT
The output available to satisfy our wants and needs is one
important determinant of welfare. Whatever want, need, or social
problem engages our attention, we ordinarily can more easily find
resources to deal with it when output is large and growing than
when it is not. GNP measures output fairly well. Net national
product (NNP) measures it even better, provided that depreciation
is calculated in a consistent and reasonable way. The capital
stock study of the Office of Business Economics provides data that
can be used to calculate NNP.
A myriad of different products must somehow be combined
if one is to obtain a measure of total output. We can obtain a gen-
erally acceptable measure only because market prices provide
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weights to combine them that are widely accepted as reasonable
and objective. The rationale is that, given the relative prices
they face, people individually or collectively are free to spend
their money in whatever way maximizes their satisfactions. If
they preferred to do so, they could shift purchases from one prod-
uct to another, substituting at the ratio of market prices. l If au-
tomobiles cost $3,000 and TV's $300, they could choose to buy
another car and 10 fewer TV's, or the reverse.
GNP and NNP valued at constant prices permit measurement
of changes in the quantity of output with products combined by use
of prices in the base year (at present 1958). They are extremely
useful measures. But users should understand their characteris-
tics. Two of these seem to me to be the most important in quali-
fying their use in welfare measurement.
First, households, governments, and nonprofit organiza-
tions are regarded as the final users of the economy's output, and
GNP and NNP measure the goods and services they buy. ^ How
effectively they use their purchases is outside the purview of GNP
or NNP. Soap, vacuum cleaners, washing machines, and the time
of domestic servants bought by the housewife are measured, not
how clean her house and linen may be. Similarly, the teachers'
services, books, school buildings, etc., purchased by school sys-
tems are measured, as are the planes, ammunition, and soldiers'
services bought by the Department of Defense; NNP does not tell
how much education and national security are obtained per dollar
(in 1958 prices) of expenditure for such items.
It is sometimes suggested that governments (and nonprofit
organizations) should be treated as if they were businesses
lln an economy with indirect taxes and subsidies, there is a com-
plication which leads national accountants to construct two mea-
sures of national product. One, recommended for "welfare"
questions, uses market prices as weights; the other, recom-
mended for resource allocation problems and productivity mea-
surement, uses factor cost values instead. For most questions
and comparisons the choice makes little difference. When it
matters, the appropriate choice can be made.
2I ignore here the net capital formation and net export components
of NNP.
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"selling" services to individuals. NNP in constant prices would
include the services provided (measured in constant prices) instead
of government purchases. Because most government purchases
are for education and defense, this proposal requires ways to
measure changes in the amounts of education and defense that are
independent of government expenditures. But how? Educators
and generals have found no acceptable procedure to make such an
estimate, and until they do, it would be a bit absurd to expect the
national accountant to do so. Present estimates of real GNP truly
measure the services provided by governments only if the services
provided per dollar of government purchases (in 1958 prices) are
the same each year as in 1958.
The prospect for measuring the services a household secures
from its purchases (when they are combined with the "labor" of
household members, which is omitted from national product) as
distinct from the value of its purchases seems at least equally
remote.
The second characteristic concerns the "quality change
problem. " When expenditure for a new or improved product ap-
pears, it is counted as output equal to the quantity of previously
existing products that could have been bought for the same expen-
diture (based on 1958 price ratios if the new product had appeared
by then, otherwise on price ratios when it first entered price
indexes).
Real NNP in 1950 was half that of 1968. This means that
output in 1950 was half as big as the sum of (1) the quantity of
products produced in 1968 that were the same as those produced
in 1950 and (2) the quantity of 1950 products that could have been
produced in 1968 by the resources that were actually used in 1968
to produce products that did not exist in 1950.
The change in real NNP understates the change in the ability
of output to satisfy our wants because it ascribes no value to the
increased range of products the economy is able to provide; for
example, in 1968 medicines were available that did not exist at
all in 1950. I am personally convinced that there is no way to
measure this understatement not all economists agree.
Such characteristics, which in my view are not remediable,
limit the accuracy of real product as a measure of changes over
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time in the ability of output to satisfy our wants. 3 nevertheless,
real product is a very useful measure. But 'to evaluate welfare
we would need additional measures which would be far more diffi-
cult to construct.
REAL COSTS OF PRODUCTION
We would need an index of real costs incurred in production*
because we are better off if we get the same output at less cost.
The starting point for an index of labor costs exists in series for
total man-hours worked, and we can also compute hours per capita
or per worker. But use of man-hours for welfare evaluation would
imply unreasonably that to increase total hours by raising the
hours of eight women from 60 to 65 a week (coverage of the Mary-
land 60-hour law recently was reduced greatly) imposes no more
burden than raising the hours of eight men from 40 to 45, or even
than hiring one involuntarily unemployed man for 40 hours a week.
A usable measure of the real costs of working would consider that
the welfare benefits from working fewer hours decline as hours
are shortened and may even disappear. "*
A measure of real costs of labor would also have to con-
sider working conditions. Most of us spend almost half our waking
hours on the job and our welfare is vitally affected by the circum-
stances in which we pass those hours. From the beginning, labor
3The two characteristics I have described result from changes
over time in the kinds of end products that the state of knowledge
permits the economy to provide, and in the skill of individuals
and governments in utilizing their purchases to meet their objec-
tives. They do not limit the significance of comparisons of alter-
native national products that might be obtained at a point in time
under alternative conditions or policies unless these alternatives
would affect stich knowledge or skill.
4In this formulation I regard the real costs of working additional
hours as including the loss of welfare resulting from less leisure
time. If it is necessary to treat the two as separate items affect-
ing welfare,' the problem is still more complicated.
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unions have concerned themselves with "wages, hours, and work-
ing conditions. " Only the first of these relates to the goods and
services the worker can buy; the others relate to real costs. Per-
haps it is under this heading, too, that the deaths and injuries
from wartime service in the armed forces, and the disutility of
involuntary service in the armed forces in war or peace, should
be counted.
We have data on saving, but no measure of the real costs of
what was once called "abstinence. " And we have no acceptable
way to combine the real costs of labor and abstinence.
NEEDS
To measure welfare we would need a measure of changes in
the needs that our output must satisfy. One aspect, population
change, is now handled, crudely, by converting output to a per
capita basis on the assumption that, other things equal, twice as
many people need twice as many goods and services to be equally
well off. ^ Beyond this, an index of needs would account for dif-
ferences in the requirements for living as the population becomes
more urbanized or suburbanized; for the effect of weather changes
on requirements for heat, air conditioning, and clothing; for medi-
cal requirements occasioned by epidemics or new diseases; and,
most of all, for changes in national defense requirements. Such
an index would have to tell us the difference between the cost of
meeting our needs, to the extent that we do, in a base year, and
the cost of meeting them equally well under the circumstances
prevailing in every other year.
my view, this is a tolerable assumption only if no change oc-
curs in the composition of the population by age and family status.
In the first place, requirements for individuals vary with age and
marital status. Second, an intractable problem is created by the
simple fact that a couple with two wanted children is not worse
off than if it had no children and the family had twice the per
capita income. Since the couple rejected that option they must
be better off. Also, greater ability to control family size has
surely improved welfare in a way that cannot be captured in any
measure I know.
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It is sometimes wrongly supposed that the necessity of taking
account of some changes in needs can be obviated by omission from
NNP of expenditures for purposes for which needs change: for ex-
ample, by elimination of expenditures for local transportation,
heat and air conditioning, health, or defense. This procedure
fails utterly. It yields the false result that we are equally well
off whether, in the same circumstances, we ride or must walk to
work, freeze or are comfortable, do or do not obtain medical care
when we are sick, or provide or do not provide for national se-
curity. Needs and provision to meet them must be separately
evaluated.
THE ENVIRONMENT
Measures of "needs" shade into measures of the human and
physical environment in which we live; perhaps it is here that the
concept of economic welfare broadens to encompass "social wel-
fare. " We are all enormously affected by the people around us.
Can we go where we like without fear of attack? Can we attend a
lecture without its being disrupted? Will we be discriminated
against? Are our neighbors congenial? We are also affected by
the physical environment--purity of air and water, accessibility
of park land, presence of trash or rats in our alleys, and all the
other conditions receiving so much attention just now.
To measure the state of affairs with respect to any aspect
of the human and physical environment requires adequate and ac-
curate data. Such data are generally deficient in both quantity and
quality, and collection and evaluation urgently need expansion.
But, given data, construction of an index of the goodness or bad-
ness of almost any environmental aspect faces at least two serious
problems.
First, relations between environmental conditions and wel-
fare are rarely linear, and nonlinear relationships are hard to
establish. A little air pollution is harmless, more an annoyance,
a great deal lethal. Discrimination against Jews by a random 10
percent of employers, landlords, and operators of public places
might be merely an annoyance to those affected; by 40 percent, a
real hardship; by 90 percent, an economic and social catastrophe.
The last situation is far more than nine times as undesirable as
the first.
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Second, if anything except the most detailed imaginable set
of data is contemplated, weighting is required: To combine rob-
beries and murders in a crime index; to combine pollution of the
Potomac and pollution of Lake Erie in a water pollution index; to
combine trash in Northeast Washington alleys and its absence on
Route 70-S into a trash index. An expert in a field may be able
to provide judgments with respect to the problems of nonlinearity
and weights that would permit an interesting index to be calculated.
However, the necessity for numerous individual judgments that
are difficult to assess or even to describe must impair general
acceptability of measures based upon them.
The absence of any natural weighting scheme is an even
greater obstacle to combining indexes of crime, water pollution,
racial discrimination, and the like into a single index. Personally,
I see not basis at all for combining indexes of different aspects of
the environment into a combined index that will command general
acceptance. I can imagine only letting each individual in the
country compute his own index with his own personal weights, and
then averaging them. But even this procedure is almost sure to
be biased because we are all concerned with the aspects of the en-
vironment that currently are problems. Who would now think to
consider the dangers of attack by hostile Indians? Or the risk of
being doused by slops thrown from windows as he walks the city
streets? Even the very recent elimination of refrigerator doors
that cannot be opened from within, and cost the lives of so many
children, is almost forgotten. The annual series for "Persons
Lynched" appeared in the Census Bureau's Historical Statistics
but not in its current Statistical Abstract.
THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
To measure welfare we would need an index of the "good-
ness" of the size distribution of income. There is probably a
consensus that, given the same total income and output, a distribu-
tion with fewer families in poverty would be better than the present
distribution, and possibly that less inequality throughout the dis-
tribution would be an improvement. There is no agreement on an
ideal distribution, from which departures could be measured.
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OTHER ASPECTS
The list I have presented is not exhaustive. I have ignored
the hard fact that tastes differ among individuals and change over
time. I have not yet recalled that welfare is affected by people's
perception of reality as well as the objective facts; one's fear of
crime on the streets need not be closely related to actual risks.
The authors of "Toward a Social Report "6 stressed the need for
attitudinal data to develop welfare measures. I have not provided
room for any of the pleasures and worries that are related to
purely personal relationships and that for most people dominate
all else in affecting their feeling of well-being.
IMPRACTICABILITY OF A GENERAL MEASURE OF WELFARE
Even if we could construct indexes of output, real costs,
needs, the state of the environment, income distribution, and other
relevant aspects of life, we could not compute a welfare index be-
cause we have no system of weights to combine them. Certainly
statisticians and social scientists are in no position to assign
weights.
The point to be stressed is that the situation is just the same
as in making policy decisions in government, in business, in the
family, or anywhere else. Most decisions that might be made
have favorable and unfavorable effects on various aspects of life.
Decision makers must try to determine the favorable and unfavor-
able effects of alternatives and then decide on their course of ac-
tion. Economists, statisticians, and other social scientists can
help determine what the effects are likely to be. But the respon-
sible decision maker must decide how the favorable and unfavorable
effects balance out, and different persons will decide differently.
This is only another way of saying that a generally accepted weight-
ing system does not exist.
6U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, "Toward
a. Social Report" (January 1969).
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COSTS OF GROWTH AND THE NATIONAL PRODUCT
It is fashionable to describe our environmental problems as
costs of economic growth, and even to suggest that these costs
should be deducted from GNP and NNP. I have no idea whether
this would raise or lower the growth rate in any particular period.
But a few observations are in order.
First, some of the objections to "growth" are to an increase
in population (or its geographic concentration) and the resulting
congestion. Over the last two centuries, it is true, increases in
productivity have permitted population to increase and led to its
doing so. But this relationship is increasingly uncertain; births,
which are the chief population determinant in this country, do not
now follow changes in per capita income in any predictable way.
It is no longer possible to regard the increase in population, and
whatever disadvantages it may bring, as the consequence of an
increase in output; there is no presumption that less output would
mean fewer people. Moreover, there is no unanimity as to whether
population growth or the steps that would be required to curtail it
are undesirable or desirable. Population increase has meant less
space per person and has affected other aspects of life adversely
in the view of many people. Others stress the pleasures derived
from children; almost none would like a higher death rate; and
immigration, which has contributed importantly even to recent
population growth, has presumably meant a better life for the
immigrants.
Second, many aspects of the environment are only remotely,
if at all, connected with the amount of production or income; and
when they are, it is by no means obvious that high income worsens
rather than improves the environment. Would such problems of
the human environment as crime, drugs, student unrest, racial
tension, and labor-management conflicts now be absent or even
smaller if output and income had increased less than they did in
the past decade or two? It seems unlikely.
I now turn to what clearly are environmental costs associated
with production. Air and water pollution, the volume of solid waste,
and other undesirable aspects of the physical environment have
been increased by economic growth or, more accurately, by the
increase in the production and use of particular products which
have been produced and used in particular ways. Given an index
of the state of the environment, a complete welfare evaluation
would not require knowledge of the extent to which changes in this'
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index were the result of production. Nevertheless, the idea of
measuring the net gain from production by balancing the value of
the deterioration of the physical environment caused by production
against the value of greater output is attractive. The value of this
deterioration could then be deducted from NNP to obtain what many
would regard as a better measure of net output. But implementa-
tion of this suggestion would requite an objective measurement of
the value of the deterioration expressed as a dollar amount. Such
a valuation does not exist, and its estimation would encounter all
the problems involved in measuring the goodness of the environ-
ment plus those of deciding what portion of changes in its goodness
were due to production.
At this point, let me emphasize that expenditures actually
incurred to preserve or improve the environment are not at all
the same thing as the value of the deterioration of the environment
that is caused by production. Such expenditures must not be de-
ducted in lieu of the value of the deterioration caused by production.
To do this would mean that the more we diverted our resources
and output from other uses to improvement of the environment,
the smaller would be GNP and NNP. This surely is not a desirable
result.
Fortunately, GNP and NNP are not reduced by diversion of
resources from other uses to environmental improvement when
the costs are borne by government or by consumers because ex-
penditures by these groups are counted as final products. (This
generalization includes such cases as the addition of antipollution
devices to automobiles because in the national accounts the addi-
tion is regarded as increasing the quantity, rather than the price,
of cars. )?
GNP and NNP can be regarded as providing defective mea-
sures of changes in output when expenditures to protect the en-
vironment are incurred by business in the form of current costs.
Such purchases are not themselves counted as final products and
they absorb resources that would otherwise be used to produce
products that are counted as final. Steps already taken, and
7Neither are GNP and NNP reduced, in the first instance, when
business makes capital outlays for this purpose. But in the case
of business capital outlays NNP is eventually reduced by a rise
in depreciation, just as it is in the case to which I turn next.
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adoption of additional proposals, to increase expenditures for en-
vironmental control of this type will have the effect of reducing
real output and productivity, as measured, below the values they
would take if resources were not so diverted. Business expendi-
tures for the safety of employees, which are also likely to rise as
a result of new legislation, will have the same effect. The reduc-
tion in measured output could be avoided only by isolating business
expenditures for these purposes and adding them to national prod-
uct as final product. Such a solution is not, I fear, feasible be-
cause such a classification of business expenditures would encounter
distinctions that are gradual and blurred. What we would need to
know is the amount by which business unit costs exceed the theo-
retical minimum that could be achieved if production were to be
conducted with no regard at all to the external environment or to
employee welfare --implying no laws, no community pressure,
and no conscience. Such a situation has never prevailed and is
difficult even to imagine. What perhaps can be done, and should
surely be attempted, is to start now to collect information on
changes in expenditures for environmental and employee protec-
tion that will occur in the future. Even if such information does
not lead or enable us to change the measure of output, it will en-
able us to interpret better the changes in output and productivity
that we observe in the future as well as to know the true costs of
the new programs.
IMPLICATIONS FOR STATISTICS
We need, can obtain, and should obtain additional informa-
tion, including statistics, on many aspects of American life that
affect welfare. We can and should explore ways of presenting and
analyzing such information in a comprehensible form. Some of
this research could well be performed by individuals familiar with
estimation of the national accounts, because some of the statistical
and conceptual problems are similar. However, we cannot obtain
a comprehensive index of welfare.
There are likely to be pressures to make ad hoc changes in
the existing national product measures that, it is supposed, will
move the national product series closer to a complete welfare
measure in one way or another. Such suggestions should be. wel-
comed if they improve the measurement of the Nation's output. I
would myself urge regular publication of series for NNP and
national income, as well as GNP, in constant prices. But some
suggestions to change the measurement of national product will
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derive from confusion between an output measure and a compre-
hensive welfare measure. Such proposals must be rejected. GNP
and NNP cannot be transformed into a comprehensive welfare mea-
sure. Efforts to do so can only impair their usefulness for the
very important purposes of both long-term and short-term analysis
that they now serve well.
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TOWARD A SOCIAL REPORT:
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
U. S. Department of Health, Education,
and Welfare
Toward a Social Report, U. S. Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare, Washington, D. C.: U. S.
Government Printing Office, January 1969, pp. xi-xxii.
-------
TOWARD A SOCIAL REPORT:
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
U. S. Department of Health, Education,
and Welfare
The Nation has no comprehensive set of statistics reflecting
social progress or retrogression. There is no Government pro-
cedure for periodic stocktaking of the social health of the Nation.
The Government makes no Social Report.
We do have an Economic Report, required by statute, in
which the President and his Council of Economic Advisors report
to the Nation on its economic health. We also have a comprehen-
sive set of economic indicators widely thought to be sensitive and
reliable. Statistics on the National Income and its component
parts, on employment and unemployment, on retail and wholesale
prices, and on the balance of payments are collected annually,
quarterly, monthly, sometimes even weekly. These economic
indicators are watched by Government officials and private citizens
alike as closely as a surgeon watches a fever chart for indications
of a change in the patient's condition.
Although nations got along without economic indicators for
centuries, it is hard to imagine doing without them now. It is hard
to imagine governments and businesses operating without answers
to questions which seem as ordinary as: What is happening to re-
tail prices? Is National Income rising? Is unemployment higher
in Chicago than in Detroit? Is our balance of payments improving?
Indeed, economic indicators have become so much a part of
our thinking that we have tended to equate a rising National Income
with national well-being. Many are surprised to find unrest and
discontent growing at a time when National Income is rising so
rapidly. It seems paradoxical that the economic indicators are
generally registering continued progress - rising income, low un-
employment - while the streets and the newspapers are full of
evidence of growing discontent - burning and looting in the ghetto,
strife on the campus, crime in the street, alienation and defiance
among the young.
Why have income and disaffection increased at the same
time? One reason is that the recent improvement in standards
of living, along with new social legislation, have generated new
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expectations - expectations that have risen faster than reality
could improve. The result has been disappointment and disaffec-
tion among a sizeable number of Americans.
It is not misery, but advance, that fosters hope and raises
expectations. It has been wisely said that the conservatism of the
destitute is as profound as that of the privileged. If the Negro
American did not protest as much in earlier periods of history as
today, it was not for lack of cause, but for lack of hope. If in
earlier periods of history we had few programs to help the poor,
it was not for lack of poverty, but because society did not care
and was not under pressure to help the poor. If the college students
of the fifties did not protest as often as those of today, it was not
for lack of evils to condemn, but probably because hope and ideal-
ism were weaker then.
The correlation between improvement and disaffection is not
new. Alexis de Tocqueville observed such a relationship in eigh-
teenth century France: "The evil.which was suffered patiently as
inevitable, seems unendurable as soon as the idea of escaping
from it crosses men's minds. All the abuses then removed call
attention to those that remain, and they now appear more galling.
The evil, it is true, has become less, but sensibility to it has be-
come more acute. "
Another part of the explanation of the paradox of prosperity
and rising discontent is clearly that "money isn't everything. "
Prosperity itself brings its own problems. Congestion, noise,
and pollution are by-products of economic growth which make the
world less livable. The large organizations which are necessary
to harness modern technology make the individual feel small and
impotent. The concentration on production and profit necessary
to economic growth breeds tension, venality, and neglect of "the
finer things. "
WHY A SOCIAL REPORT OR SET OF SOCIAL INDICATORS?
i i
Curiosity about our social condition would by itself justify
an attempt to assess the social health of the Nation. Many people
want answers to questions like these: Are we getting healthier?
Is pollution increasing? Do children learn more than they used
to? Do people have more satisfying jobs than they used to? Is
crime increasing? How many people are really alienated? Is the
American dream of rags to riches a reality? We are interested
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in the answers to such questions partly because they would tell us
a good deal about our individual and social well-being. Just as
we need to measure our incomes, so we need "social indicators,
or measure of other dimensions of our welfare, to get an idea how
well off we really are.
A social report with a set of social indicators could not only
satisfy our curiosity about how well we are doing, but it could also
improve public policymaking in at least two ways. First, it could
give social problems more visibility and thus make possible more
informed judgments about national priorities. Second, by provid-
ing insight into how different measures of national well-being are
changing, it might ultimately make possible a better evaluation of
what public programs are accomplishing.
The existing situation in areas with which public policy must
deal is often unclear, not only to the citizenry in general, but to
officialdom as well. The normal processes of journalism and the
observations of daily life do not allow a complete or balanced view
of the condition of the society. Different problems have different
degrees of visibility.
The visibility of a social problem can depend, for example,
upon its "news value" or potential drama. The Nation's progress
in the space race and the need for space research get a lot of pub-
licity because of the adventure inherent in manned space explora-
tion. Television and tabloid remind us almost daily of the problems
of crime, drugs, riots, and sexual misadventure. The rate of in-
fant mortality may be a good measure of the condition of a society
but this rate is rarely mentioned in the public press, or even per-
ceived as a public problem. The experience of parents (or infants)
does not insure that the problem of infant mortality is perceived
as a social problem; only when we know that more than a dozen
nations have lower rates of infant mortality than the United States
can we begin to make a valid judgment about the condition of this
aspect of American society.
Moreover, some groups in our society are well organized,
but others are not. This means that the problen, = of some groups
are articulated and advertised, whereas the problems of others
are not. Public problems also differ in the extent to which they
are immediately evident to the "naked eye. " A natural disaster
or overcrowding of the highways will be immediately obvious.
But ineffectiveness of an educational system or the alienation of
youth and minority groups is often evident only when it is too late.
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Besides developing measures of the social conditions we care
about we also need to see how these measures are changing in re-
sponse to public programs. If we mount a major program to pro-
vide prenatal and maternity care for mothers, does infant mortality
go down? If we channel new resources into special programs for
educating poor children, does their performance in school even-
tually increase? If we mount a "war on poverty, " what happens
to the number of poor people ? If we enact new regulations against
the emission of pollutants, does pollution diminish?
These are not easy questions, since all major social prob-
lems are influenced by many things besides governmental action,
and it is hard to disentangle the different effects of different causal
factors. But at least in the long run evaluation of the effectiveness
of public programs will be improved if we have social indicators
to tell us how social conditions are changing.
The present volume is not a social report. It is a step in
the direction of a social report and the development of a compre-
hensive set of social indicators.
The report represents an attempt, on the part of social sci-
entists, to look at several important areas and digest what is known
about progress toward generally accepted goals. The areas treated
in this way are health, social mobility, the condition of the physi-
cal environment, income and poverty, public order and safety,
and learning, science, and art.
There is also a chapter on participation in social institutions,
but because of the lack of measures of improvement or retrogres-
sion in this area, it aspires to do no more than pose important
questions.
Even the chapters included leave many - perhaps most -
questions unanswered. We have measures of death and illness,
but no measures of physical vigor or mental health. We have
measures of the level and distribution of income, but no measures
of the satisfaction that income brings. We have measures of air
and water pollution, but no way to tell whether our environment
is, on balance, becoming uglier or more beautiful. We have some
clues about the test performance of children, but no information
about their creativity or attitude toward intellectual endeavor.
We have often spoken of the condition of Negro Americans, but
have not had the data needed to report on Hispanic Americans,
American Indians, or other ethnic minorities.
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If the Nation is to be able to do better social reporting in
the future, and do justice to all of the problems that have not been
treated here, it will need a wide variety of information that is not
available now. It will need not only statistics on additional as-
pects of the condition of the Nation as a whole, but also informa-
tion on different groups of Americans. It will need more data on
the aged, on youth, and on women, as well as on ethnic minorities.
It will need information not only on objective conditions, but also
on how different groups of Americans perceive the conditions in
which they find themselves.
We shall now summarize each of the chapters in turn.
HEALTH AND ILLNESS
There have been dramatic increases in health and life ex-
pectancy in the twentieth century, but they have been mainly the
result of developments whose immediate effect has been on the
younger age groups. The expectancy of life at birth in the United
States has increased from 47. 3 years at the turn of the century to
70. 5 years in 1967, or by well over 20 years. The number of ex-
pected years of life remaining at age 5 has increased by about 12
years, and that at age 25 about 9 years, but that at age 65 not even
3 years. Modern medicine and standards of living have evidently
been able to do a great deal for the young, and especially the very
young, but not so much for the old.
This dramatic improvement had slowed down by the early
fifties. Since then it has been difficult to say whether our health
and life status have been improving or not. Some diseases are
becoming less common and others are becoming more common,
and life expectancy has changed rather little. We can get some
idea whether or not there has been improvement on balance by
calculating the "expectancy of healthy life" (i. e., life expectancy
free of bed-disability and institutionalization). The expectancy of
healthylife at birth seems to have improved a trifle since 1957,
the first year for which the needed data are available, but cer-
tainly not as much as the improvements in medical knowledge and
standards of living might have led us to hope.
The American,people have almost certainly not exploited
all of the potential fpr better health inherent in existing medical
knowledge and standards of living. This is suggested by the fact
that Negro Americans have on the average about seven years less
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expectancy of healthy life than whites, and the fact that at least
15 nations have longer life expectancy at birth than we do.
Why are we not as healthy as we could be ? Though our style
of life (lack of exercise, smoking, stress, etc.) is partly respon-
sible, there is evidence which strongly suggests that social and
economic deprivation and the uneven distribution of medical care
are a large part of the problem.
Though the passage of Medicare legislation has assured
many older Americans that they can afford the medical care they
need, the steps to improve the access to medical care for the
young have been much less extensive.
The Nation's system of financing medical care also provides
an incentive for the relative underuse of preventive, as opposed to
curative and ameliorative, care. Medical insurance may reim-
burse a patient for the hospital care he gets, but rarely for the
checkup that might have kept him well. Our system of relief for
the medically indigent, and the fee-for-service method of physi-
cian payment, similarly provide no inducements for adequate pre-
ventive care.
The emphasis on curative care means that hospitals are
sometimes used when some less intensive form of care would do
as well. This overuse of hospitals is one of the factors responsible
for the extraordinary increases in the price of hospital care.
Between June 1967 and June 1968, hospital daily service
charges increased by 12 percent, and in the previous 12 months
they increased by almost 22 percent. Physicians' fees have not
increased as much - they rose by 5l/2 percent between June 1967
and June 1968 - but they still rose more than the general price
level. Medical care prices in the aggregate rose at an annual rate
of 6. 5 percent during 1965-67.
SOCIAL MOBILITY
The belief that no individual should be denied the opportunity
to better his condition because of the circumstances of his birth
continues to be one of the foundation stones in the structure of
American values. But is the actual degree of opportunity and so-
cial mobility as great now as it has been?
IV-33
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It was possible to get a partial answer to this question from
a survey which asked a sample of American men about their fathers'
usual occupations as well as about their own job characteristics.
Estimates based on these data suggest that opportunity to rise to
an occupation with a higher relative status has not been declining
in recent years, and might even have increased slightly. They
also show that by far the largest part of the variation in occupa-
tional status was explained by factors other than the occupation
of the father.
These encouraging findings, in the face of many factors that
everyday observation suggest must limit opportunity, are probably
due in part to the expansion of educational opportunities. There
is some tendency for the sons of those of high education and status
to obtain more education than others (an extra year of schooling
for the father means on the average an extra 0. 3 or 0. 4 of a year
of education for the son), and this additional education brings
somewhat higher occupational status on the average. However,
the variations in education that are not explained by the socio-
economic status of the father, and the effects that these variations
have on occupational status, are much larger. Thus, on balance,
increased education seems to have increased opportunity and up-
ward mobility.
There is one dramatic exception to the finding that opportunity
is generally available. The opportunity of Negroes appears to be
restricted, to a very great extent by current race discrimination
and other factors specifically related to race. Though it is true
that the average adult Negro comes from a family with a lower
socioeconomic status than the average white, and has had fewer
years of schooling, and that these and other "background" factors
reduce his income, it does not appear to be possible to explain
anything like all of the difference in income between blacks and
whites in terms of such background factors. After a variety of
background factors that impair the qualifications of the average
Negro are taken into account, there remains a difference in in-
come of over $1,400 that is difficult to explain without reference
to current discrimination. So is the fact that a high status Negro
is less likely to be able to pass his status on to his son than is a
high status white. A number of other studies tend to add to the
evidence that there is continuing discrimination in employment,
as does the relationship between Federal employment and contracts
(with their equal opportunity provisions) and the above-average
proportion of Negroes in high status jobs.
The implication of all this is that the American commitment
to opportunity is within sight of being honored in the case of whites,
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but that it is very far indeed from being honored for the Negro.
In addition to the handicaps that arise out of history and past dis-
crimination, the Negro also continues to obtain less reward for
his qualifications than he would if he were white.
THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
This chapter deals with the pollution of the natural environ-
ment, and with the man-made, physical environment provided by
our housing and the structure of our cities.
Pollution seems to be many problems in many places--air
pollution in some communities, water pollution in others, auto-
mobile junk yards and other solid wastes in still other places.
These seemingly desperate problems can be tied together by one
basic fact: The total weight of materials taken into the economy
from nature must equal the total weight of materials ultimately
discharged as wastes plus any materials recycled.
This means that, given the level and composition of the re-
sources used by the economy, and the degree of recycling, any
reduction in one form of waste discharge must be ultimately ac-
companied by an increase in the discharge of some other kind of
waste. For example, some air pollution can be prevented by
washing out the particles - but this can mean water pollution, or
alternatively solid wastes.
Since the economy does not destroy the matter it absorbs
there will be a tendency for the pollution problem to increase with
the growth of population and economic activity. In 1965 the trans-
portation system in the United States produced 76 million tons of
five major pollutants. If the transportation technology used does
not greatly change, the problem of air pollution may be expected
to rise with the growth and the number of automobiles, airplanes,
and so on. Similarly, the industrial sector of the economy has
been growing at about 4-1/2 percent per year. This suggests that
if this rate of growth were to continue, industrial production would
have increased tenfold by the year 2020, and that in the absence
of new methods and policies, industrial wastes would have risen
by a like proportion.
The chapter presents some measures of air and water pollu-
tion indicating that unsatisfactorily high levels of pollution exist
in many places. There can be little doubt that pollution is a
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significant problem already, and that this is an area in which, 0.1
least in the absence of timely reporting and intelligent policy, the
condition of society can all too easily deteriorate.
As we shift perspective from the natural environment to the
housing that shelters us from it, we see a more encouraging trend.
The physical quality of the housing in the country is improving
steadily, in city center and suburb alike. In 1960, 84 percent of
the dwelling units in the country were described as "structurally
sound;" in 1966, this percentage had risen to 90 percent. In cen-
ter cities the percentage had risen from 80 percent in 1960 to 93
percent in 1966. In 1950, 16 percent of the nation's housing was
"overcrowded" in the sense that it contained 1. 01 or more persons
per room. But by 1960, only 12 percent of the nation's housing
supply was overcrowded by this standard.
The principal reason for this improvement was the increased
per capita income and demand for housing. About 11-1/2 million
new housing units were started in the United States between 1960
and 1967, and the figures on the declining proportions of struc-
turally unsound and overcrowded dwelling, even in central cities,
suggest that this new construction increased the supply of housing
available to people at all income levels.
Even though the housing stock is improving, racial segrega-
tion and other barriers keep many Americans from moving into
the housing that is being built or vacated, and deny them a full
share in the benefits of the improvement in the Nation's housing
supply.
INCOME AND POVERTY
The Gross National Product in the United States is about
$1, 000 higher per person than that of Sweden, the second highest
nation. In 1969 our GNP should exceed $900 billion. Personal
income has quadrupled in this century, even after allowing for
changes in population and the value of money.
Generally speaking, however, the distribution of income in
the United States has remained practically unchanged over the last
20 years. Although the distribution of income has been relatively
stable, the rise in income levels has meant that the number of per-
sons below the poverty line has declined. The poor numbered 40 ,
million in 1960 and 26 million in 1967.
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A continuation of present trends, however, would by no
means eliminate poverty. The principal cause of the decline has
been an increase in earnings. But some of the poor are unable to
work because they are too young, too old, disabled or otherwise
prevented from doing so. They would not, therefore, be directly
helped by increased levels of wages and earnings in the economy
as a whole. Moreover, even the working poor will continue to ac-
count for a substantial number of persons by 1974: about 5 million
by most recent estimates. This latter group is not now generally
eligible for income supplementation.
The Nation's present system of income maintenance is badly
in need of reform. It is inadequate to the needs of those who do
receive aid and millions of persons are omitted altogether.
This chapter concludes with an analysis of existing programs
and a discussion of new proposals which have been put forward in
recent years as solutions to the welfare crisis.
PUBLIC ORDER AND SAFETY
The concern about public order and safety in the United States
is greater now than it has been in some time.
The compilations of the Federal Bureau of Investigation shown
an increase in major crimes of 13 percent in 1964, 6 percent in
1965, 11 percent in 1966, and 17 percent in 1967. And studies
undertaken for the President's Crime Commission in 1965 indicate
that several times as many crimes occur as are reported.
Crime is concentrated among the poor. Both its perpetrators
and its victims are more likely to be residents of the poverty areas
of central cities than of suburbs and rural areas. Many of those
residents in the urban ghettoes are Negroes. Negroes have much
higher.arrest rates than whites, but it is less widely known that
Negroes also have higher rates of victimization than whites of any
income group.
Young people commit a disproportionate share of crimes.
Part of the recent increase in crime rates can be attributed to the
growing proportion of young people in the population. At the same
time, the propensity of youth to commit crime appears to be
increasing.
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Fear of apprehension and punishment undoubtedly deters
some crime. The crime rate in a neighborhood drops with much
more intensive policing. But crime and disorder tend to center
among young people in ghetto areas, where the prospects for legiti-
mate and socially useful activity are poorest. It seems unlikely
that harsher punishment, a strengthening of public prosecutors,
or more police can, by themselves, prevent either individual crime
or civil disorder. The objective opportunities for the poor, and
their attitudes toward the police and the law, must also change
before the problems can be solved.
LEARNING, SCIENCE, AND ART
The state of the Nation depends to a great degree on how
much our children learn, and on what our scientists and artists
create. Learning, discovery, and creativity are not only valued
in themselves, but are also resources that are important for the
Nation's future.
In view of the importance of education, it might be supposed
that there would be many assessments of what or how much Ameri-
can children learn. But this is not in fact the case. The standard
sources of educational statistics give us hundreds of pages on the
resources used for schooling, but almost no information at all on
the extent to which these resources have achieved their purpose.
It is possible to get some insight into whether American
children are learning more than children of the same age did ear-
lier from a variety of achievement tests that are given throughout
the country, mainly to judge individual students and classes.
These tests suggest that there may have been a significant improve-
ment in test score performance of children since the 1950's.
When the chapter turns to the learning and education of the
poor and-the disadvantaged, the results are less encouraging.
Groups that suffer social and economic deprivation systematically
learn less than those who have more comfortable backgrounds.
Even when they do as well on achievement tests, they are
much less likely to go on to college. Of those high school seniors
who are in the top one-fifth in terms of academic ability, 95 per-
cent will ultimately go on to college if their parents are in the top
socioeconomic quartile, but only half of the equally able students
IV-3 8
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from the bottom socioeconomic quartile will attend college. Stu-
dents from the top socioeconomic quartile are five times as likely
to go to graduate school as comparably able students from the bot-
tom socioeconomic quartile.
It is more difficult to assess the state of science and art
than the learning of American youth. But two factors nonetheless
emerge rather clearly. One is that American science is advancing
at a most rapid rate, and appears to be doing very well in relation
to other countries. The Nation's "technological balance of pay-
ments, " for example, suggests that we have a considerable lead
over other countries in technological know-how.
The other point that emerges with reasonable clarity is that,
however vibrant the cultural life of the Nation may be, many of the
live or performing arts are in financial difficulty. Since there is
essentially no increase in productivity in live performances (it
will always take four musicians for a quartet), and increasing pro-
ductivity in the rest of the economy continually makes earnings in
the society rise, the relative cost of live performances tends to go
up steadily. This can be a significant public problem, at least in
those cases where a large number of live performances is needed
to insure that promising artists get the training and opportunity
they need to realize their full potential.
PARTICIPATION AND ALIENATION: WHAT WE NEED TO LEARN
Americans are concerned, not only about progress along the
dimensions that have so far been described, but also about the spe-
cial functions that our political and social -institutions perform.
It matters whether goals have been achieved in a democratic or a
totalitarian way, and whether the group relationships in our society
are harmonious and satisfying.
Unfortunately, the data on the performance of our political
and social institutions are uniquely scanty. The chapter on "Par-
ticipation and Alienation" cannot even hope to do much more than
ask the right questions. But such questioning is also of use, for
it can remind us of the range of considerations we should keep in
mind when setting public policy, and encourage the collection of
the needed data in the future.
Perhaps the most obvious function that we expect our insti-
tutions to perform is that of protecting our individual freedom.
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Individual liberty is not only important in itself, but also necessary
to the viability of a democratic political system. Freedom can be
abridged not only by government action, but also by the social and
economic ostracism and discrimination that results from popular
intolerance. There is accordingly a need for survey data that can
discern any major changes in the degree of tolerance and in the
willingness to state unpopular points of view, as well as informa-
tion about the legal enforcement of constitutional guarantees.
Though liberty gives us the scope we need to achieve our in-
dividual purposes, it does not by itself satisfy the need for con-
genial social relationships and a sense of belonging. The chapter
presents evidence which suggests (but does not prove) that at least
many people not only enjoy, but also need, a clear sense of be-
longing, a feeling of attachment to some social group.
There is evidence for this conjecture in the relationship be-
tween family status, health, and death rates. In general, married
people have lower age-adjusted death rates, lower rates of usage
of facilities for the mentally ill, lower suicide rates, and probably
also lower rates of alcoholism than those who have been widowed,
divorced, or remained single. It is, of course, possible that those
who are physically or mentally ill are less likely to find marriage
partners, and that this explains part of the correlation. But the
pattern of results, and especially the particularly high rates of
those who are widowed, strongly suggest that this could not be the
whole story.
There are also fragments of evidence which suggest that
those who do not normally belong to voluntary organizations, co-
hesive neighborhoods, families, or other social groupings probably
tend to have somewhat higher levels of "alienation" than other
Americans.
Some surveys suggest that Negroes, and white with high de-
grees of racial prejudice, are more likely to be alienated than
other Americans. This, in turn, suggests that alienation has
some importance for the cohesion of American society, and that
the extent of group participation and the sense of community are
important aspects of the condition of the Nation. If this is true,
it follows that we need much more information about these aspects
of the life of our society.
It is a basic precept of a democratic society that citizens
should have equal rights in the political and organizational life of
the society. Thus there is also a need for more and better
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information about the extent to which all Americans enjoy equality
before the law, equal franchise, and fair access to public services
and utilities. The growth of large scale, bureaucratic organiza-
tions, the difficulties many Americans (especially those with the
least education and confidence) have in dealing with such organiza-
tions, and the resulting demands for democratic participation make
the need for better information on this problem particularly urgent.
Though almost all Americans want progress along each of
the dimensions of well being discussed in this Report, the Nation
cannot make rapid progress along all of them at once. That would
take more resources than we have. The Nation must decide which
objectives should have the higher priorities, and choose the most
efficient programs for attaining these objectives. Social reporting
cannot make the hard choices the Nation must make any easier,
but ultimately it can help to insure that they are not made in ignor-
ance of the Nation's needs.
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V. QOL: PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES
-------
A HIERARCHY OF NEEDS AND VALUES
Graham T. T. Molitor
Mr. Molitor is Director of Government Relations at
General Mills, Inc.
Extracted from "Evolution of Socio-Economic
Organization--A Structural Underpinning for
Understanding Societal Value" by Graham T. T.
Molitor. Presented to: Ad Hoc Interagency
Committee on Futures Research, April 20, 1972.
-------
A HIERARCHY OF NEEDS AND VALUES
Graham T. T. Molttor
One recent prediction states that "within less than a genera-
tion in the United States two percent of the population may be able
to produce all the food and manufactured goods. " The statement,
perhaps extreme, dramatically makes the point that the traditional
industries--agricultural and manufacturing--are declining in terms
of the commitment of human resources, while output continues to
increase at incredible rates.
Agrarian pursuits at an early stage in national development
involved perhaps 90% of the labor force. Underdeveloped nations
nearly 100% of the populace may be so committed, even today. As
recently as the turn of the century some 35% of America's workers
were involved in agriculture. Today only 4.4% of the labor force
is involved and--realistically—that figure might decline to 2% by
the year 2000. Agriculture has passed from an atomistic, labor
intensive activity to a large-scale, capital intensive kind of
operation.
Agriculture's biggest problem is no longer scarcity, but
rather abundance. So prodigious is the output that a welter of laws
actually restrain output, restrict acreage, discourage planting, and
ban importation of competing foreign products. Despite all this,
America not only has enough food to go around, but is capable of
feeding a sizable portion of the world, as well.
Manufactured goods production seems headed the same way.
The industrial stage in economic evolution dominated until
the 1950's when the post-industrial or service economy emerged.
In about .1956 America became the first nation in all the history of
the industrialized world where the number of manual or blue collar
workers was exceeded by so-called while collared occupations.
Around 1956, the service-producing industries (trade, finance,
services, real estate, public utilities, transportation, and govern-
ment) took the lead over jobs in the goods-producing industries.
The service economy has been born. Presently some 24%
of the labor force are blue collar workers. The number may de-
cline downward-to some 11% before the end of this century.
V-l
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The steady eclipse of traditional industrial pursuits--agri-
culture and manufacturing--brings on many significant changes
that will profoundly alter the business structure, and our values
systems.
Incentives to discourage people from working may be
devised.
Work may become a privilege and a coveted status
symbol, not a necessity.
Life without work from cradle to grave may be
possible.
Use of leisure time may become our main
preoccupation.
An economy of abundance, not one of scarcity may
prevail.
Undreamed of equality, of economic sharing may
become possible.
One prominent writer (Peter Drucker) has predicted the
emerging post-industrial state will be dominated by knowledge/
information industries. If matters of the mind and intellectual
genius become tomorrow's dominant resource, it means that in-
dividuals will enjoy a new perminence and importance. A new
era of humanism may be in prospect.
Such changes may alter traditional concepts of property. In
a knowledge-based society the traditional wealth generating mech-
anisms of property and physical resources are no longer the cen-
tral or crucial assets--the new resource will be the intellect, a
very highly individualized kind of inner resource.
In turn, this could bring about the "reprivatization" of in-
dustry. Economic activity will no longer be dependent upon huge
aggregations of property and wealth. Instead, new economic pur-
suits will be based upon the individual intellect. New opportunities
for small, individual entrepreneur ships--cottage industries--may
flourish. In this process, not only may the composition of the
work force change, but the very structure of organized economic
activity may be radically reformed.
V-2
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Ramifications of the knowledge industries becoming the
dominant economic activity of the future are broad scale.
Tomorrow's critical shortage will be knowledge. Electrical
data processing makes possible a global sharing and centralization
of man's collective wisdom--such a "global data bank" will bring
new intellectual horizons within grasp. In the ensuing competition
for men's minds world-wide brain drains might come about.
Assuming education will remain primarily a government-
operated service activity, the main enterprise of tomorrow takes
on a statist or socialized cast. Such a turn of events may bring
the economies--and interests—of the recognized socialist and
even the communist countries ever closer together to the capital-
ist ones.
THE CHANGING CHARACTER OF SOCIOECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Whatever the exact outcome, some broad outlines of the
changing character of socioeconomic activity are becoming ap-
parent. Already well underway are the following basic shifts:
From primary and secondary industries (agriculture/
manufacturing) to tertiary and quaternary industries
(service/knowledge activities)
I
Prom Maslowian values posited on survival to security,
then belongingness and esteem, and ultimately to self-
actualization
From goods to services
From goods/services produced by muscle power to
those produced by machines and cybernetics
From unassisted brainpower to knowledge assisted
and amplified by EDP
From materialistic to the sensate
From "things" to experiences
V-3
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From basic necessities then to amenities and eventu-
ally to a higher order of sensate needs
From physiological to psychological needs
From scientific emphasis based on physical, "hard"
sciences to one based on social, "soft" sciences
From "have not" (poverty) to "have" (shared abundance;
egalitarianism)
From quantity to quality
From a few innovative technological introductions to
vast and varied new inventions
From scarcity to abundance and eventually to super
abundance
From a few stark choices to a bewildering array of
choices
From durability to disposables and planned obsoles-
cence and back to recyclables, reclaimables
From ownership to rental ism
From self-interest motivation to broader social and
humanitarian outlook
From independence and self-sufficiency to
interdependence
From generalists to specialists
From individual freedom to voluntary restraints to
mandatory restraints
From profit-mindedness to balanced consideration of
social responsibilities and the public interest
From Puritan hard-work ethic to leisure as a matter
of right
From Darwinian self-survival to humanistic security
V-4
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From atomistic to large-scale pluralistic institutions
From national to multi-national and "one-world"
scale operations
From decentralization to centralization and eventual
globalization
From the simple to the complex
From the obvious to subtle, non-discernible (X-rays,
radiation)
From irrational chaos to logical planning
EPOCHAL CHANGE
Americans are experiencing an epochal transmutation of the
society they live in. Many don't even know it, although intuitively
they may be aware of it. In the following comments I will begin to
describe some of the powerful structural forces giving rise to the
epochal transition period America is going through.
A post-industrial values revolution is at the bottom of the
baffling succession of anti-thesis that are crowding in upon us all--
anti-establishmentarianism, anti-materialism, rejection of the
Puritan ethic of hard work, radicalization, counter-culture. The
most important change is the massive search for QUALITY.
The sharp shift in values which is revolutionizing consumer
behavior has been brought op--basically--by unprecedented afflu-
ence and abundance. An enormous middle and upper class, the
largest ever known in the history of mankind (including some 90%
of all Americans) are in the process of defining new goals with
which are associated higher values. The new framework of human
values involves- satisfying ever-higher human needs.
Through an understanding of this constant human upgrading
process--a constant striving to continually improve the social lot
of mankind--we can appreciate the forces of consumerism which
seem to be demanding more and more rational information useful
to upgrading the "quality of life"; the demand for zero defects in
product safety, and zero discharge in water pollution.
V-5
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Values, then, are at the bottom of this understanding. They
define ideas which unleash aspirations that eventually become the
goals toward which society, as a whole, inevitably strives.
THE FIVE MASLOWIAN LEVELS
Maslow describes the five different stages or phrases through
which society evolves in his "needs hierarchy":
Level 1--Survival. Here the dominant driving force is simply the
struggle to sustain life, to secure food, drink, sleep, warmth.
This state involves scarcity and extreme poverty. Primitive man,
social outcasts, and severe defectives fall into this category as do
prisoners in POW camps--to these persons survival is all impor-
tant. Little else counts.
Level 2--Security. Persons living within this socioeconomic envi-
ronment are motivated by a desire for protection--from beasts,
from people, from natural or economic catastrophies. Individuals
are afraid of chaos and seek the familiar, security in numbers--
the outlook is basically status quo. Minorities, the poor, mar-
ginal farmers, and small businessmen fall within this category.
Level 3--Belongingness. People at this level of social activity
strive to be a part of something bigger, conform to group norms
("organization men"), depend upon the opinion of others. The
mass middle class falls into this category.
Level 4--Esteem. People in this category are goaded by achieve-
ment that is "visible, " ostentatious; they want to stand out and
have others think well of them; materialism, and "keeping up with
the Joneses" pervades this social strata. Within this category
are business executives, politicians, and nouveaux riches.
Level 5--Growth or Self-Actualization. Living up to one's full
potential is the primary concern at this level of development. In-
dividuals within this social strata are tempered by idealism, mot-
ivated by ends not means, willing to follow--or to lead. They
V-6
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have an abiding conviction that the world can be better, their out-
look is dominated by social awareness, and with a future-oriented
and global perspective.
SELF-ACTUALIZERS--THE VANGUARD OF CHANGE
It is this process of inward turn ing--self-actualization or
realization (level 5)--that is central to understanding the quest
for quality and the elusive goal of perfection that grips us. All
previous levels are motivated by quantitative needs; however,
self-actualizers become all-concerned with quality.
In a post-industrial society persons falling into level 5 are
increasing. As they increase in numbers their role as opinion
leaders and trend setters becomes increasingly important. Al-
though the real power over the socioeconomic system is wielded
by those within the esteem group (level 4), the thinking of those
in the esteem group is significantly shaped by opinion leaders in
the self-actualization category.
Self-actualizers are the advocates of change. We need to
carefully listen to them. More often than not, they are the cutting
edge of change. Maslow stops at self-actualization. It always
bothered me that he never went any further. Other psychologists
describe where we go from here. One now obscure commentator
may become world famous for his work--Clare Graves (Union
College, New York) whose values system goes far beyond Maslow.
V-7
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MOVING BEYOND MASLOW:
CLARE GRAVES' LEVELS OF EXISTENCE THEORY
Peter J. Jessen
Mr. Jessen is a policy analyst and social systems
developer and has recently completed work with the
National Commission on Marihuana and Drug Abuse.
Presented to: Ad Hoc Interagency Committee on
Futures Research, April 20, 1972.
-------
MOVING BEYOND MASLOW:
CLARE GRAVES' LEVELS OF EXISTENCE THEORY
Peter J. Jessen
A definitive explanation of Graves cannot be accomplished in
the pages allotted to us. However, an overview of the dynamic
can be explained to facilitate the kind of thinking we are doing now
in regards to developing alternative futures and the corresponding
budgets to go with them.
Graves developed his theory independent of Maslow. Once
they began to compare notes, however, a debate ensued. The
debate "ended" when Maslow, in writing, shortly before his dealth,
agreed with Graves.
Graves' levels of existence theory consists of eight levels,
each reflective of a basic value system. These major value sys-
tems, along with their existential states, associated motivational
systems and end values, and the problems of existence of each
level, would chart as shown in Exhibit I. The major "problems"
of each existential state is as follows: H-U: accepting existential
dichotomies; G-T: restoring viability in a disordered world; F-S:
living with the human element; ER: conquering the physical uni-
verse so as to overcome want; D-Q: achieving everlasting peace
of mind; C-P: living with self-awareness; B-O: achievement of
relative safety; A-N: maintaining physiological stability.
Working in this system are two cyclic factors: the
adjustment-of-environment-to-organism component, and the
adjustment-of-organism-to-environment component. A person's
concept of a healthy personality is a function of a person's having
experienced solutions encountered in the task of trying to stay
alive. The cyclic patterns, says Graves, works in alternating
spurt-plateau-spurt-plateau, etc. Levels 1, 3, 5, 7 are seen as
a family of self-expressive systems, and are closely related.
Equally so are levels 2, 4, 6, 8 which are adjustive systems (ad-
justing with the world, not changing it). They are belonging
systems.
V-8
-------
EXHIBIT I
BASIC EXISTENTIAL MOTIVA-
VALUE STATE* IN TIONAL
VEL SYSTEM LETTERED NAMES SYSTEM
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
EXPERIENTIAL
EXISTENTIAL
SOCIOCRATIC
MATERIALISTIC
SACRIFICIAL
EXPLOITIVE
TRADITIONALISTIC
REACTIVE
H-U
G-T
F-S
E-R
D-Q
C-P
B-0
A-N
EXPERIENCE
EXISTENCE
AFFILIATION
INDEPENDENCE
SECURITY
SURVIVAL
ASSURANCE
PHYSIOLOGICAL
MEANS
VALUES**
EXPERIENCING
ACCEPTING
SOCIOCENTRICITY
SCIENTISM
SACRIFICE
EXPLOITATION
TRADITIONALISM
END
VALUE**
COMMUNION
EXISTENCE
COMMUNITY
MATERIALISM
SALVATION
POWER
SAFETY
NO CONSCIOUS VALUE SYSTEM;
VALUES PURELY REACTIVE
*A-N: A PHYSIOLOGICAL SYSTEM; B-O/H-U: PSYCHOLOGICAL SYSTEMS.
"UNDERLINED VALUES: PRIMARY ORIENTATION OF EACH VALUE SYSTEM
V-9
-------
Graves rejects the thesis that man is driven by original sin,
that civilized human behavior can only be superimposed on man,
that good values and ethics have been "revealed to man" (Judeo-
Christian, Buddhist, etc.) and "are the prime tenets by which
man should live. " Instead, Graves prefers to view the current
problems as breakdowns in values, and that the values problem
can be viewed from a different view, namely: a humanistic, or-
ganismic, systems view, called the Level of Existence point of
view. This view would hold the following regarding the nature
of man:
"I. That man's nature is not a set thing, that it is ever
emergent, that it is an open system, not a closed
system.
"II. That man's nature evolves by saccadic (sac, pouch),
quantum-like jumps from one steady state system
to another.
"ill. That man's values change from system to system as
his total psychology emerges in new form with each
quantum-like jump to a new steady state of being. "
Thus, Graves would interpret the events of today as signs of
pending chaos or of the apocalypse. He views turmoil as evidence
of transition taking place, transition from one level to another.
Exhibit II illustrates this dynamic. As people and groups develop
they do so in a wave-like motion, with high spots and with low spots.
In reality, the points reflect the dynamics of the never ending pro-
cess of development. The transition period provides us with an
opportunity for reorganization. Instead of values being lost or bad
values being obtained, we have newly emergent value systems,
systems appropriate for the next level of existence.
With this all too brief description, let us now compare Mas-
low with Graves, not from the standpoint of how we would like to
personally interpret them but from the standpoint of what they
meant by their theories.
V-10
-------
EXHIBIT II
FIGURATIVE REPRESENTATION OF THE GROWTH REGRESSION
AND REORGANIZATION OF VALUE SYSTEMS
NEW VALUE SYSTEMS GENERALLY
INTERPRETED AS LOSS OF VALUES
OR BAD VALUES
STATE OF
SYSTEMIC
ORGANIZATION
POINTS OF APPARENT
BREAKDOWN OF VALUES;
ACTUALLY POINTS OF
REORGANIZATION
PSYCHOLOGICAL TIME
v-n
-------
One of the major defects of the Maslow scale is that it enables
Sisyphus to succeed: he rolls the stone to the top of the hill and
then rests on his laurels. Graves, on the other hand, recognizes
the human situation in true Sisyphean terms: that growth and de-
velopment are endless, open, continuous. Maslow, at the top of
his hierarchy, is applicable only to individuals, not groups (insti-
tutions, nations, etc.). Graves is. Roughly speaking, the first
four levels of Graves correspond to the levels suggested in the
Maslow scale.
A key difference between Maslow and Graves centers upon
desired level attainment. Maslow says all must progress to level
four, self-actualization, before becoming whole. Graves says it
is silly to try to get everyone to exist at the same level. Instead,
says Graves, understand the various levels to enable you to inter-
act with others, but concentrate upon those at the same level or
only one level, for they are the ones with whom you will best get
along.
Maslow's system is not open ended; Graves is. A person,
or group, is not considered by Graves to be at one level only.
Parts of all exist at the same time. One level usually dominates,
however. When a new level of the system is reached, the lower
systems are subordinated. When a lower level system becomes
dominant over a higher level (due either to a crisis that cannot be
handled or to a kind of "backsliding") the higher level operates in
service of the system's lower level now dominating. Exhibit III
illustrates that the first level contains embryonic aspects of later
developing systems and that all later developing systems subordi-
nate older systems in a newer totality. This illustrates the nest-
ing aspect of adult personality systems.
Exhibit IV charts how the Graves' system relates to both
personal and organizational values systems and needs hierarchies.
The letters A to H would be on the vertical axis and refer to the
neurological systems of configurations. The letters N to U would
be on the horizontal axis and refer to the existential problems.
As the person develops, changes take place within the brain. The
greatest change takes place during the transition phase between
levels.
V-12
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EXHIBIT III
FIGURATIVE REPRESENTATION OF THE SUBORDINATION OF SYSTEMS WITH TIME.
THE NESTING ASPECT OF ADULT PERSONALITY SYSTEMS.
TO 7 OR GT
TO 8 OR HU
V-13
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LEVEL OF EXISTENCE THEORY: GRAPHED
DR. C. W. GRAVES
Basic Organization Structure-Diagrams
Basic Communication System-Arrows
Tasks for Which System is Best As Per
Level of Existence Theory
Specific
Outcome
Craft Tasks
Skilled to
Semiskilled
Class Ordered
1 Competence Dependent
I Uncertain Outcome
[ Tasks
I I D 9 I
EXHIBIT IV
Organization revolves
project leader as
competence required.
Manager organizes then
works for system
Communication
is necessary
Direction only
Regardless of
Position in
Chain of Command.
c-P
B-0
Big Boss
Lieutenant
Mass unskilled
Downward
Communication
Only
Higher
Authority
Passes to
Secular Authority.
Ordering into
classes by birth.
Communication
Downward and
across classes
Except as Secular
Authority is
Hortatory or
Condescendingly
Communication
Up and Down
Formally Through
Chain of Command
Separation of
Members from
One Another
Throughout
Showman
or
Elder Led
Communication
male to male — female to female
V-14
-------
Graves' concept of level transitions is one of the most impor-
tant contributions of the theory. Transitions relate to personal
change, historical change, cultural change, institutional change.
When a person, a group, an institution, a state, a nation, etc.,
come to the end of a particular way of life (in Graves' terms: to
the end of^a level means to the end of DQ, ER, FS, etc.), that
"way'1 or "level" no longer suffices to help the questions /problems
of existence. This creates a state of crisis. The crisis state
should be viewed as a healthy sign, says Graves, not as a signal
for doomsday, tales of Armageddon, or of the apocalypse. For
Graves these are positive signs of the transition to a higher level.
The chaos or crisis results from the struggle to make it to that
next level. Put another way, the struggle represents the process
the person or group goes through in adjusting from feeling no
longer satisfied with the old level but not yet happy or comfortable
with the new level.
For this reason, the first step taken is usually regressive.
A striving to find a way forward follows the regressive step. This
effort creates stress. For example, people abusing drugs are
often in the transition between levels 5 and 6 (ER to FS). Accord-
ing to Graves, this manifestation used to represent the difficulties
of the transition between levels 4 and 5 (DQ to ER). As our civili-
zation as a whole goes through various levels, the ramifications
of change also change. No one approach suffices in dealing with
the various transitions. This is particularly true of therapy selec-
tion for individuals (although it holds true for approaches to and
with organizations and institutions). Examples of the various levels
and the approaches that seem best are as follows:
FOR THE CP TO DQ (3-4) TRANSITION : SKINNERIAN PRINCIPLES APPLY: BENEVELANT
AUTOCRATS;
FOR THE DQTO ER (4-5) TRANSITION : THE FREUDIAN ONE-TO-ONE APPROACH WORKS
BEST; THE CRUCIAL EFFORT IS TO OVERCOME
FEAR, TO BUILD TRUST;
FOR THE ER TOPS (5-6) TRANSITION : ONLY PEER GROUP TECHNIQUES WORK (THUS,
T GROUPS ORSENSITIVITY GROUPS SHOULD BE
USED;
FOR THE FS TO GT (6-7) TRANSITION : A ROGERIAN APPROACH IS BEST; ONCE THE GOAL
OR NEED OR ISSUE IS EXPRESSED, THE FS TO
GT PERSON OR GROUP CAN WORK IT OUT FOR
THEMSELVES.
V-15
-------
Thus, to use the latter technique for the DP to DQ person would
create chaos for them. To use Skinner for the FS to GT person
would only result in their turning on their irritated heels and walk-
ing out.
It should become readily clear that Graves' levels of existence
theory provides us with a fine tool for relating happenings, develop-
ments, and scenarios to the influences propelling us toward the
year 2000. We can apply Graves to understand the different "revo-
lutions" that are abroad in the land. This is very crucial when we
address ourselves to policy analysis and policy planning. No per-
son or group can be adequately dealt with unless their levels of
existence are determined and understood. Examples of the five
basic revolutions which we can pinpoint via the use of the Graves'
theory, are the following:
BO TO CP (2 TO 3) : EXTREME MILITANCY, BRUTAL AGGRESSION;
CP TO DQ (3 TO 4) : BLACK MUSLIMS; PURITANISM (NOTE ATTICA ACTIONS);
DQTOER<4TO5) : THROWING OFF MIDDLE-CLASS VALUES (SUCH AS PUNCTUALITY,
HARD WORK, CLEANLINESS); JESUS FREAKS ARE AN EXAMPLE;
ER TOPS (5 TO 6) : THROWING OFF THE AFFLUENT WAY OF LIFE, CASTING ASIDE
MATERIALISM, ESCAPING TO LOVE (THE HUMAN PSYCHOLOGICAL
ASSOCIATION TYPES);
FSTOGT(6TO7) : GETTING RID OF MAJORITY RULE, FOR THE MAJORITY IS ALWAYS
WRONG; NO EQUALITY EXISTS - THIS IS MORE DIFFICULT TO
UNDERSTAND AS A CONCEPT: THEREFORE, LET ME QUOTE GRAVES:
"THE BRIDGE FROM THE . . . FSLEVELTOTHE . . . GT LEVEL
IS THE BRIDGE BETWEEN GETTING AND GIVING, TAKING AND
CONTRIBUTING, DESTROYING AND CONSTRUCTING. IT IS THE
BRIDGE BETWEEN DEFICIENCY OR DEFICIT MOTIVATION AND
GROWTH OR ABUNDANCY MOTIVATION. IT IS THE BRIDGE
BETWEEN SIMILARITY TO ANIMALS AND DISSIMILARITY TO
ANIMALS."
Graves would not place value judgments on the above transi-
tions. What the various level people or organizations are rebel-
ling against is not the issue. The issue is what they do with them.
Once the transition is made, they may very well take back the ideas
or objects that were thrown out.
This is not to suggest, however, that everyone is in a state
of progression through the various levels. Closed system people
r^e stationery at their level. Only open systems people and orga-
nizations can work through the various levels and transitions.
The closed system could be due to a number of causes: mental
illness, retardation, mechanical injury to the brain, senility, re-
treat from emotional/psychological trauma, etc. This would
V-16
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restrict movement to the upper levels and could reduce a person
or group to a lower level.
From an analysis standpoint, one would thus want to ascer-
tain the level of people and groups with whom and which one deals
(groups are often dealt with in the guise of personal representa-
tives). If it is determined that they are closed, all issues will be
approached the same way within the closed level system. Indica-
tions as to level can be obtained by probing for opinions regarding
certain vital issues of human behavior. For example, to elicit
opinions regarding rules, reactions when criticized, parents, how
to handle those they disagree with, will reveal their level and
their degree of openness.
Applying this directly to the United States, we should base
our discussions on the fact that the U. S. today is, in Graves'
terms, quagmired in the transition between DQ to ER (4-5). From
his work, Graves notes that the DQ way of life is on its way out in
our society. In 1952 he found 34% of his students at the DQ level,
about 10% at the GT level. Today, the figures are nearly reversed.
Realizing this helps to put into perspective the transition phenomena
listed above. Not that the other transitions are not taking place
also. It's just that the majority are in the DQ to ER transition.
A footnote relating this to exogenous factors would state that
much of the concern over certain foreign policy decisions or advo-
cated plans is misplaced. For instance, if we accept the proposi-
tion that people and societies develop through a series of transi-
tions, then the reaction to certain notions regarding other nation
development must be reassessed. The road to democracy for a
tribal/feudal/agricultural/etc., type society is through autocracy.
Thus, for Vietnam, if democracy is to be attained, it must first
go through autocracy.
Policies relating to welfare, youth, and certain minority
groups would also be viewed from a different perspective. And,
within each of these, the importance of the various cohorts (gen-
erations born at the same time) must be stressed. Thus, those
born before World War- II began life at a lower level due to the
hardships and deprivations of that time. Those born after 1945
began life at a much higher level of existence than their parents
because they did not have to go through the same kind of either
depression or war-time survivalism. Because it is difficult for
a person of a given level to relate to persons over one level away,
V-17
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we can begin to understand some of the difficulties in youth and
parent relations, WASP and minority relations, various ethnic
and religious relationships, etc.
The key question becomes: can we avoid, when possible,
and be aware of, when not possible, our own ethnocentrism, emo-
tionalism, and semantic confusion and propaganda when analyzing
our own and others' levels of existence? The next question would
be: how? The beginning of that answer is the learning, under-
standing, and application of the Graves' levels of existence theory.
V-18
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QUALITY OF LIFE
Norman C. Dalkey*
Norman C. Dalkey is with the RAND Corporation
at Santa Monica, California.
Unpublished paper by Norman C. Dalkey, March 1968.
*Anv views expressed in this paper are those of the author.
Tte? do not purport to reflect the views of the RAND Corpo-
ration or the official opinion or policy of any of rts govern-
mental or private research sponsors. Papers are repro-
Tced by the RAND Corporation as a courtesy to members
of its staff.
-------
QUALITY OF LIFE
N. C. Dalkey
INTRODUCTION
The phrase "quality of life" has almost supplanted the older
words "happiness" and "welfare" in contemporary discussions of
policy in the urban and domestic areas. * The phrase does have
a fine ring to it and is somewhat less maudlin than "happiness"
and somewhat less shopworn than "welfare. " However, there is
some question whether the brave new phrase is any less vague.
The expression is most often encountered as a slogan--a
call to think bigger. There is nothing particularly objectionable
in the sloganistic use; except that the term is rarely defined and
one suspects that it contributes its bit of soot to the verbal smog--
most of the users are careful not to pause for definition, but hurry
on to more operational problems, like setting performance goals.
This is not the place to examine goal-oriented decision
making. And, I am going to make a further simplification, which
is to accept the restriction of social programs as aimed at doing
something for the individual. Whether that is a reasonable attitude
is, I believe, a wide open question, but I won't open it here.
(What is involved is the question whether there are group interests
which transcend the interests of the individual members of the
group. It is my impression that there are--beside the standard
ones of national security--but discussion of this issue would lead
too far afield.)
* "These goals cannot be measured by the size of our bank balances.
They can only be measured in the quality of the lives that our
people lead. " (Remarks of the President (Johnson), Madison
Square Garden, October 31, 1964.) "But no one has compared
the two modes of transport (SST, public urban transit) in terms
which might reflect how they improve the quality of life. " (Sys-
tem Science, Congress and the Quality of Life, feature article
by Murray E. Kanross, IDA for WORC Newsletter, Sept. 1967. )
V-19
-------
There is a final simplification I would like to make before
proceeding. The notion of "quality" has two elements: it can re-
fer to state or condition, or it can refer to excellence. The dif-
ference is probably subtle, and mainly semantic; but life becomes
a little simpler if we start off with a descriptive, rather than a
prescriptive notion. This boils down to considering the aim to be
the characterization of the factors which are relevant and impor-
tant to the well-being of individuals, and not to prescribing what
is socially good. (In my own framework, these two are not really
distinct; but other frameworks exist, and I don't want to get tangled
up in them at this stage.)
As you will observe I tend to be rather bullish about the fea-
sibility of getting somewhere in the attempt to make the notion of
QOL* useful to planners (as more than a handy slogan). My rea-
sons are pretty diffuse. There is a small but growing body of in-
formation in psychology that is relevant; there have been several
studies by social scientists that are applicable; and there is a fair
amount of agreement between armchair thinkers on the factors
which are significant. This is not a sufficient basis for optimism--
but it is a little better than an excuse.
I remarked earlier that few users of the phrase QOL bother
to define it; however, some have attempted to give content to the
notion, and it is worth examining these characterizations.
These attempts have taken two**forms, (a) armchair "analy-
ses, " and (b) public surveys.
The armchair approach generally consists of devising a list
of general factors which are important to the quality of life of an
individual. Representative samples are to be found in Bauer (2),
Berelson (1), Lynd (3), SRI (4). A kind of super-armchair
*This abbreviation of Qualify of Life will be used intermittantly
below.
**I am excluding the host of ethical, aesthetic, and religious es-
says in this area, as well as the mass of clinical material in the
psychoanalytic and mental hygiene areas; the first three because
of lack of empirical claims, and the last two because of extreme
miscellaneity.
V-20
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procedure is that of the prestigious commission, most notably the
President's Commission on National Goals and Values (5). Again,
the output is a list of items deemed (in this case) most important
for the well-being of nation, and hence, derivately, for the indi-
vidual. The report of the President's Commission has become a
sort of bible in the national area (6) (7). One investigator, Wilson
(8), has used the list of goals as a structure to rank the 50 states
in the order of the quality of life they offer their residents.
The public survey approach is well represented by two in-
vestigations, reported in (9) and (10). These are analyses of the
results of extensive interviews with cross-sectional samples of
the American public. Despite the somewhat Reader's Digest air
lent these studies by their unabashed use of words like ''happiness, "
"feelings, " etc., they have the virtue that they at least ask the
relevant questions, rather than imposing a priori assumptions.
Following a brief discussion of the armchair and public sur-
vey efforts, a research strategy is suggested that appears to go
well beyond these two with respect to coherence and
comprehensivene ss.
ARMCHAIR EFFORTS
As noted above, the armchair approach consists in devising
a list of general factors which are presumed to be significant in
determining the well-being of humans. The lists referred to are,
of course, not capricious. They are distilled from clinical lore,
sociological think pieces, some psychological and social psycho-
logical experimentation, and the like. There is a great deal of
overlap among the lists--in general the shorter lists tend to be
contained bodily in the longer ones. The shortest list I have run
across is that of SRI, which involves three basic factors:
Safety
Belongingness
Self-esteem
A fourth item is appended, self-realization, but this is treated on
a different level than the basic three.
V-21
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The oldest list of this genre I have run across is dated 1923
(Thomas, quoted in Berelson, p. 257) and is next to the shortest.
Thomas adds "new experience. " I cooked up a list semi-
independently of the ones mentioned, and I suppose it is only fair
that I use it as an example. The list contains nine items: Health,
Activity, Freedom, Security, Novelty, Status, Sociality, Affluence,
Aggression.
Strictly physiological items such as food, sleep, shelter,
etc., have been omitted primarily on the grounds that, in the
U. S., at least, these are pretty well taken care of at better than
subsistence levels.
A number of dubieties arise at once concerning any attempt
to set down a list of the significant factors in the quality of life.
The lists are intended to be comprehensive, but the varying lengths
of those in the literature indicate that there is no trustworthy stop
rule for the multiplication of items. Again, the items are pre-
sumably distinct, but there is no good way of telling whether they
overlap, or in fact refer to the same thing. Finally, the items
are extremely difficult to relate on the one hand, to human be-
havior, and, on the other, to policy.
In an attempt to introduce a somewhat more systematic treat-
ment (but still within the armchair tradition) I conducted a pre-
liminary Delphi (14) exercise, using twelve RAND staff as a panel.
They were asked to judge three things concerning the nine factors
listed above: whether the items were a) meaningful, b) measurable,
and the relative weight of the factors for the quality of life of the
average American. * They were also asked to add any new factors
which they thought were significant.
There was good agreement that the items were meaningful,
and good agreement that all were measurable except for Freedom,
Novelty, and Agression. There was considerable diversity on the
values of the relative weights, but reasonable agreement on the
ranking. In terms of proportionate parts of 100, the median rela-
tive weights were those in Table 1.
*The questionnaire used for this exercise is included as an
appendix.
V-22
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TABLE I
Median Relative Weights of 12 Respondents for
Nine Factors in Quality of Life
Factor Median Weight
1. Health 20
2. Status 14
3. Affluence 14
4. Activity 12.25
5. Sociality 9^ 3
6. Freedom 8. 2
7. Security 8.2
8. Novelty 7.2
9. Aggression 6. 1
As can be seen, the items break up into three main groups, (1)
Health, (2) Status, Affluence, Activity, (3) Freedom, Security,
Novelty, with Sociality midway between (2) and (3) and Agression
rather by itself at the bottom.
How much this table reflects the RAND environment, I don't
know. I had intended to pursue the exercise for at least another
round, feeding back the results of the first round to the panel for
further consideration; but I gave up for two reasons: 1) no proce-
dure suggested itself for dealing with the overlap problem. The
clustering of 2, 3, 4, and 5, 6, 7 indicated they might be describ-
ing one single factor each. 2) No procedure suggested itself for
dealing with the completeness problem.
The only two items suggested for addition by more than one
member of the panel were sexual activity, and care of children
(including education).
V-23
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GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
Without a good deal more empirical study than now exists,
the armchair lists are probably only suggestive. However, they
are in agreement on one general proposition: Whatever QOL is,
it is determined mainly by some very general features of the, in-
dividual and his environment, and not by specifics. What this means
is that two different individuals who score about the same in a "factor
space11 should, for example, report about the same degree of con-
tentment with their lot, irrespective of the special circumstances
that make up the score. This is a very strong statement. Providing
the factors are measurable, it is testable, and one of the problems
to be tackled is how we can go about testing it.
A great deal of the issue is whether we are looking for a
"single thing" that can be called QOL, or whether we presume it
is a congeries of incomparable elements. There are several levels
possible here: If we consider the factors to be--as Lynd (3) does--
motivations, or forces, we can ask whether there are trade offs
among them. If so, there is a reasonable sense in which "equi-
motivating" curves can be drawn and a general "desirability" index
defined. A somewhat different notion is involved in use of terms
such as "happiness" to describe an overall "feeling-tone" to which
the various status variables "contribute. " A third point of view
is that of the mental hygienist which apparently would include some
notion of the effectiveness of the individual, as well as his "feeling-
tone. "
In the present discussion I vacillate between the three. My
prejudices lead me to favor the mental health approach, but the
difficulties of implementing this approach for purposes of systems
analysis in domestic problems nudge me toward the simpler
structures.
In addition to the very general postulate that QOL is deter-
mined by some highly abstract properties of the living space of
the individual, there are two other propositions for which there
seems to be a fair amount of evidence: The first is that the in-
fluence of factors on QOL are a rapidly decreasing function of
distance away, either in space or time. The statement with re-
spect to time is very similar to the notion of discount rate in eco-
nomics. The opportunity of obtaining a dollar one year from now
is much less motivating than the opportunity to obtain a dollar
this afternoon. With regard to space, there has been a fairly rich
experimental program with animals, and especially with rats,
V-24
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demonstrating the properties of what the psychologist Clark L.
Hull called the goal gradient. If any of several indicators of moti-
vation are employed (velocity with which the rat runs toward a
goal, the physical tug the rat exerts against a restraint, which can
be measured by a harness and a spring balance, etc., the general
relationship of this measure and distance from the goal is that of
an exponential decrease (see Figure 1).
TUG
Figure 1.
DISTANCE TO GOAL
One of the most beautiful sets of experiments in all psychology
demonstrates the interaction of positive and negative goal gradients
(11). In a given maze, the positive goal gradient, e.g., for food,
can be measured. Suppose for the same maze, a negative goal
gradient is measured, e.g., for an electric shock. The curve will
again look like Figure 1, except, of course, the effect is a push
away from the "goal" rather than a tug. Now, suppose the rat is
faced with the situation where there is food and an electric shock
at the goal position. It appears to be the case that the decline of
the negative "force" is more rapid than the decline of the positive
force, hence the two curves will cross, as in Figure 2. The re-
markable thing is that although the two curves were measured
TUG
OR
PUSH
Figure 2.
DISTANCE TO GOAL
independently, when the goal is mixed, the rat will approach the
goal until he reaches the crossover point, and then stop. If he is
placed closer to the goal than the crossover point, he will retreat
to the crossover and again stop. If he is placed precisely at the
crossover, he will remain there. In short, the reality of the
equality of the push and the tug is elegantly borne out.
Probably, even for rats, but certainly for humans, the goal
gradient would need modification in terms of psychological distance,
as well as physical distance; although it is striking that sheer
V-25
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physical distance appears to be sufficient for many psychological
and sociological phenomena. In particular, Zipf (12) has.foxmd
some surprising relationships between distance and social
interaction p.
The other general proposition is that human beings probably
live much more "in the future" than lower animals. Hope, antici-
pation, ambition, aspiration level, anxiety, etc. are clearly im-
portant elements of QOL. But it seems reasonable to assume that
events of the distant future are much less influential than near
events. It also seems reasonable that the "discount rate" depends
the kind of event and the amount of uncertainty surrounding it, I
don't know of any experiments in which the time-wise goal gradient
for animals has been systematically investigated, but it looks like
a tractable subject.
SURVEYS
A somewhat more empirical approach is furnished by the
cross-sectional survey. The two studies "Americans View Their
Mental Health" (1960) (9) and "Reports on Happiness" (1966) (10)
are among the more complete and recent such surveys. The pro-
cedure is reasonable, if a little uninspired. Lengthy interviews
(of the order of two hours involving over a hundred questions) were
held with cross-sectional samples of the population. Questions
ranged from the subjective and global (Taking all things ^together,
how would you say things are these days--would you say you're
very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy these days?) to the
objective and specific (About what do you think your total income
will be this year for yourself and your immediate family? list
of income brackets.)
Such surveys are subject to a host of well-known objections.
These were recognized by the investigators, but, of course, are
hard to deal with. It is difficult to check the reliability of verbal
reports; they are hard to relate to behavior; subjective evaluations
are subject to bias and cultural distortion, etc. In addition, the
survey approach has very little in the way of conceptual frame-
work to suggest hypotheses and structure.
Nevertheless the survey results are not empty. For one
thing, they overturned several well-entrenched bits of popular
sociology. A good example is the myth of the carefree bachelor.
Standard lore has it that the single man enjoys his freedom, while
V-26
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the single woman is anxiously awaiting the loss of hers. Something
like the opposite appears to be the case. The unmarried male is
much more likely to rate himself as "not very happy" than the un-
married female.
An interesting result from the "Reports on Happiness" study
is that a succession of events, some with positive and some with
negative feeling tones do not smear into an intermediate shade of
emotional grey, but make distinct contributions to a self-evaluation.
Persons reporting being very or pretty happy are likely to report
a greater number of both unpleasant and pleasant events in the re-
cent past than those reporting being not very happy.
For those interested in urban affairs, the surveys raise
somewhat of a puzzle. In comparing self-evaluations of urban and
rural dwellers, no measurable difference could be found when re-
spondents were matched for other obvious variables--age, sex,
education, income, married or not. Admittedly, the measuring
stick is crude, but at least the other variable mentioned did make
a distinct difference.
A RESEARCH PROPOSAL
In this section a research proposal will be outlined that
represents an attempt to be somewhat more systematic in studying
the quality of life than either the armchair or survey approaches.
The pros and cons will be left to a later section.
The basic idea is quite straightforward, namely, to pre-
pare a comprehensive set of scales relevant to the quality of life;
let a large, representative sample of Americans rate themselves
on these scales via confidential interview; and employ factor analy-
sis to summarize the interrelations between the ratings. With any
luck at all, many of the factors derived in the analysis would be
interpretable and could replace the armchair lists with something
more solid. However, this felicitous result is not vital to the use-
fulness of the study.
The scales would consist of three sorts: a) relatively objec-
tive measures such as income, age, amount of communication with
friends, etc., b) subjective ratings such as job satisfaction, per-
ceived social status, degree of excitement in daily activities, etc.,
c) global subjective scales like happiness, amount of worry, num-
ber of times thought of suicide, optimistic about future, etc.
V-27
-------
Since one expectation would be that the results of such a
study would be relevant to policy in the urban and domestic areas,
several blocks of scales should be allocated to issues directly in-
volved in these, e. g., amount of time spent in parks and places
of public recreation, satisfaction with neighborhood, amount of
income from welfare payments, and so on. In tight of the large
role that aesthetic and "cultural" considerations play in the de-
liberations of many urban planners it would seem reasonable to
include a number of scales relevant to this dimension.
Obviously, one of the great difficulties with the study would
be to include the "dark" areas--aggression, antisocial behavior,
bigotry, and the like. The presumption that the quality of life is
determined solely by "acceptable" items is, of course, false; but
probably on a first go round, the dark items would have to be under-
emphasized. On the other hand, there is no reason to leave them
out—the President's Commission on Crime (13) had no difficulty
in pursuing the question whether respondents had committed one
or more serious crimes. 90% had.
The most critical part of the study, and the one that would
probably consume a majority of the elapsed time is the construc-
tion and selection of the set of primary scales. There is an es-
sentially limitless potential set of such indices. A large proportion
of the items could probably be derived from the extensive literature
on sociometrics. The armchair lists can be used for some guidance.
However, an intensive p re examination by a panel of social psychol-
ogists would undoubtedly be required. In addition, several pilot
runs to test the reliability and where feasible, the "validity" of the
items would be needed.
An extremely useful substudy would be to combine the quality
of life questionnaire with a personality inventory and an intelligence
test. The problem here would be to find a meaningful small group
of respondents--it obviously would be of limited value to use only
college graduate students.
The less difficult part would be conducting the survey and
initial analysis of the data. The interviewing would doubtless be
done most efficiently by one of the established survey groups, and
computer routines exist to carry out the very large amount of
computation required for the factor analysis. Summative analy-^
sis and drawing conclusions would certainly not be routine.
V-28
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PROS AND CONS
There are a number of negative considerations with regard
to the research proposal sketched above. All of the difficulties
with using "verbal behavior" previously noted in connection with
public surveys still apply. It is likely that some increase in re-
liability will accrue from the statistical aggregation in the factor
analysis, but this is not a large effect compared with the question-
able aspects of relying on verbal reports. In addition, it is easy
to oversell the significance of factor analysis. The technique it-
self has some formal drawbacks--principally that it is not inde-
pendent of irrelevant indices--and the question whether the derived
factors are "real" or simply statistical artifacts is generally an
open one. In the case of the quality of life analysis there is a form
of internal criterion of meaningfulness, in that it is possible to
include a number of "global" scales, and the degree to which the
derived factors can be used to estimate the global indices can be
assessed. However, this internal criterion is of limited weight
with respect to the question whether the derived factors are related
to behavior or to the effects of varying the environment of an indi-
vidual. There is, in fact, a nondismissable question whether all
the analysis is doing for you is shortening your dictionary.
Not to be overlooked is the fact that a study of this scope
would be expensive.
Despite these reservations, there are several reasons for
urging that the study be undertaken. Above all, the factor analytic
approach--whatever the ultimate significance of the derived factor
structure--furnishes a systematic framework for tying together
a vast amount of information about the perceived well-being of
present day Americans. It should be a fertile source of hypotheses
concerning the interrelation of various influences on the quality of
life. It clearly is several steps beyond the armchair approach in
both empirical content and in rationale for assessing the impor-
tance of various factors. (In this respect, "shortening the dic-
tionary" has by itself a nontrivial payoff.)
The discipline imposed by the analysis on the basic scales
should result in a much sharper set of measures. And, of course,
one would expect to cut through at least parts of the great mass of
common misunderstandings concerning the interrelations of these
measuresT~There is a reasonable expectation that for many of the
derived factors, there would be a high enough correlation with ob-
jective measures so that relating public programs to the quality
of life could be accomplished via these indices.
V-29
-------
THE DELPHI PROCEDURE AND RATING QUALITY
OF LIFE FACTORS*
Norman C. Dalkey and Daniel L. Rourke
Mr. Dalkey and Mr. Rourke are with the Rand
Corporation.
*This article is an extraction from the larger report,
"Experimental Assessment of Delphi: Procedures
With Group Value Judgments" by Norman C. Dalkey
and Daniel L. Rourke: Rand, 1971, pp 8-24.
-------
THE DELPHI PROCEDURE AND RATING QUALITY
OF LIFE FACTORS
Norman C. Dalkey and Daniel L. Rourke
This document describes the method used in an experiment
assessing the appropriateness of Delphi procedures for group
value judgments.
In this study one group of subjects used the Delphi procedure
to rate the relative importance of each of a set of factors in terms
of the factor's contribution to a person's assessment of the "Quality
of Life." (In our instructions to the subjects we defined the term
"Quality of Life" (QOL) to mean a person's sense of well-being,
his satisfaction or dissatisfaction with life, or his happiness or un-
happiness. ) A second group used the Delphi method to scale a set
of changes in characteristics of students occurring as a result of
their participation in the process of higher education. This scale
measured the Effects of Education (EE) in terms of the importance
of the changes for the student. These topics were selected because
our subject population (UCLA upper-division and graduate students)
could be expected to have informed opinions concerning each of
them. The two groups received nearly the same instructions for
the different topics and were for the most part treated identically.
The experiment required three sessions, the first two of
which were devoted to the generation of the items to be scaled by
the Delphi method in the third session. In the first session, each
subject made up a list of from 5 to 10 items important either for
the assessment of the Quality of Life or for the evaluation of the
Effects of Education on students.
The items from the QOL group (about 250 in all) were sorted
into 48 categories of similar items, while the 300 items from the
EE group were sorted into 45 categories. In the second session of
the experiment the subjects who had made up the lists of items in
response to the QOL questionnaire rated the similarity of all possi-
ble pairs of categories formed from the original QOL items. The
EE group rated the similarity of all pairs of the EE categories.
The similarity ratings were used to cluster the categories of the
original items into super-categories. Thirteen super-categories
or factors were formed from the QOL categories and fifteen from
the EE categories. The relative importance of each factor was,
assessed during the third session of the study. The QOL group
V-30
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rated the importance of the QOL factors and the EE group rated
the EE factors. A two-round Delphi procedure was employed
where both groups revised their importance ratings during the
second round in view of the median ratings for each factor obtained
from the group's first-round ratings. As a check on the reliability
of the ratings, the QOL and EE groups were each split into two sub-
groups and each subgroup used a different procedure to scale the
factors.
SUBJECTS
The subjects were 90 UCLA upper-division and graduate
.students. They were recruited by advertisements in the school
paper and were paid for their participation. No attempt was made
to select subjects according to sex or field of interest.
ITEM GENERATION
During the first session, which was conducted at UCLA, sub-
jects were instructed to list from 5 to 10 items pertaining either to
the "Quality of Life" or the "Effects of Education." The subjects
were randomly assigned to a particular topic so that 45 subjects
responded to each.
Subjects in the tw>o groups were treated identically. The sub-
jects were given printed instructions and a deck of 10 blank cards.
The instructions briefly introduced the subject to the purpose of the
experiment and then requested him to list from 5 to 10 items (one
item per card) pertaining either to the QOL or the EE topic.
In the QOL condition, subjects were asked to list the char-
acteristics or attributes of those events having the strongest influ-
ence on determining the QOL of an adult American. The subjects
were instructed to ignore events concerned with basic biological
maintenance, but not to overlook characteristics with negative con-
notations, e.g., aggression. Subjects in the EE condition were
asked to view higher education as a process which causes (or fails
to cause) changes in characteristics of students. The subjects
were requested to list those characteristics which should be con-
sidered in evaluating the process of higher education. Subjects
were instructed to consider only undergraduate education while
forming their lists.
V-31
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Subjects were also instructed to rank their items from most
important to least important. These ranks were used only as rough
guides in the initial aggregation of items by the experimental team.
Questions concerning the experiment were answered either by re-
peating or paraphrasing the instructions. No subject required more
than half an hour to complete the first session. They were then
given appointments for the second and third sessions which were
conducted at The Rand Corporation in Santa. Monica at intervals of
one week.
Prior to the second session of the experiment, the items gen-
erated by the subjects in the first session were sorted into cate-
gories of similar items. Two sets of categories were formed: one
for the QOL items and another for the EE items. The sorting was
done by a panel of three; each member assisted in the design and
execution of the experiment. Two criteria were used during the
sorting of the items: (1) The perceived differences of any pair of
items within a category were to be smaller than differences between
any pair of items drawn from two different categories; and (2) No
more than 50 categories were to be formed. Composite labels were
developed for each category either by quoting or paraphrasing (or
both) a few of the most frequently occurring items in each of the
categories. The 48 QOL category composite labels are given in
Table 1 and the 45 EE composite labels are shown in Table 2.
During the second session, each subject was presented with a
list of all possible pairs of either the QOL or EE category labels.
The task for all subjects was to rate the similarity of the labels in
each pair. Every subject was given printed instructions, a list of
the category labels, and a computer-generated list of pairs of
labels. Each subject received a different random ordering of label
pairs. The instructions informed the subjects that the items they
had developed during the first session had been categorized to form
the list of category labels. This list had in turn been used to form
the computer printed list of label pairs. The subjects were in-
structed to rate the similarity of the labels in each pair on a 0-4
scale where the numerical ratings were tied to the following adjec-
tive scale:
4 Practically the same
3 Closely related
2 Moderately related
1 Slightly related
0 Unrelated
V-32
-------
If a subject felt that the labels were connected, but in an inverse
fashion, he was to use negative ratings, e.g., -4 being equivalent
to "practically opposites. " The following two examples were given:
Drowsy - Physically Tired, illustratively scored at 2, and Drowsy -
Alert, scored at -3. Both groups received the same instructions.
The QOL group rated 1128 item pairs and the EE group rated 990.
The experiment was conducted in two 1-1/4-hour periods with a
1/2-hour break between periods.
The means of the absolute values of the similarity ratings for
each label pair were computed over subjects for both groups.
These mean absolute ratings were then analyzed by Johnson's hier-
archical clustering procedure [8]. In this procedure objects are
clustered according to the similarities between them. The objects
within a cluster are more similar to one another than to objects be-
longing to a different cluster. In addition, the procedure merges
similar clusters into larger clusters in a stepwise fashion until all
the objects are placed into a single cluster. Consequently, the
user of this procedure must select the number of clusters which
seems compatible with both the data and any theoretical or empiri-
cal predictions about the results of the procedure. The problem is
not unlike selecting the number of factors to retain in a factor anal-
ysis. The use of the absolute values of the ratings "folds" the
label pairs given the negative ratings into the same clusters. The
clusters which were generated by this procedure are shown in
Fig. 1 for the QOL groups and Fig. 2 for the EE group. Numbers
across the top refer to the list of items in Tables 1 and 2 respec-
tively. The lefthand column indicates the similarity level at which
the item is included in a cluster. The "histogram" of x's displays
the progressive aggregation of items into clusters. For example,
in Fig. 1 at the highest level of similarity (3.78) Failure (21) and
Success (35) are associated--probably as straightforward opposites.
At almost the same level, Achievement (37) is joined to the cluster.
Nothing further is added to this cluster until level 1. 9 when the pre-
viously associated pair, Money (7) and Status (12) are added. This
is the "core" of characteristic 11 in Table 3. The thirteen QOL
and fifteen EE clusters which were selected are given in Tables 3
and 4.
IMPORTANCE RATING
The task for the subjects in the third session of the experi-
ment was to rate the clusters or factors in terms of their impor-
tance to the topic in question. The subjects who had developed the
V-33
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MEANS OF ABSOLUTE VALUES OF SIMILARITY RATINGS
QOL ITEMS
Similarity
Level
3.7750
3.3000
3.2750
3.2560
3.2000
3.1580
3.0790
3.0500
2.9760
2.9490
2.8210
2.8000
2.7950
2.7800
2.7070
2.7000
2.6410
2.6250
2.5500
2.4750
2.4250
2.3250
2.2500
2.2000
2.0000
1.9750
1.9490
1.8970
1.7750
1.7690
1.6750
1.6410
1.5500
1.4500
1.4250
1.3750
1.3250
1.0770
1.0250
0.9750
0.7950
0.6920
0.6500
0.6250
0.5000
0.3330
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Figure 1 —Computer-generated display of factors from analysis of QOL similarity ratings
V-34
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MEANS OF ABSOLUTE VALUES OF SIMILARITY RATINGS
EE ITEMS
Similarity
Level
3.7140
3.4570
3.3610
3.2890
3.2700
3.2570
3.2220
3.1390
3.0830
3.0570
3.0540
3.0300
3.0290
2.9430
2.9090
2.8610
2.7790
2.7030
2.6860
2.6670
2.6470
2.6110
2.5680
2.4590
2.4320
2.4170
2.3160
2.2220
2.2000
2.0280
1.9140
1.8860
1.8330
1.6220
1.5710
1.4590
1.4290
1.3610
1.2160
1.1390
1.0000
0.5140
0.1940
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Figure 2—Computer-generated display of factors from analysis of QOL similarity ratings
V-35
-------
Table 1
CHARACTERISTICS OF QUALITY OF LIFE
1. FEAR. ANXIETY 25.
2. AGGRESSION. VIOLENCE, HOSTILITY 26.
3. AMBITION 27.
4. COMPETITION. COMPETITIVENESS 28.
5. OPPORTUNITY. SOCIAL MOBILITY, LUCK 29.
6. DOMINANCE, SUPERIORITY 30.
7. MONEY, ACQUISITIVENESS, MATERIAL GREED 31.
8. COMFORT. ECONOMIC WELL-BEING 32.
9. NOVELTY. CHANGE, NEWNESS, VARIETY, SURPRISE 33.
10. HONESTY, SINCERITY, TRUTHFULNESS 34.
11. TOLERANCE. ACCEPTANCE OF OTHERS 35.
12. STATUS, REPUTATION, RECOGNITION, PRESTIGE 36.
13. FLATTERY, POSITIVE FEEDBACK, REINFORCEMENT 37.
14. SPONTANEITY, IMPULSIVE, UNINHIBITED 38.
15. FREEDOM 39.
16. COMMUNICATION, INTERPERSONAL UNDERSTANDING 40.
17. LONELINESS, IMPERSONALITY 41.
18. DEPENDENCE, IMPOTENCE, HELPLESSNESS 42.
19. POWER, CONTROL, INDEPENDENCE 43.
20. GOOD HEALTH 44.
21. FAILURE, DEFEAT, LOSING 45.
22. INVOLVEMENT, PARTICIPATION 46.
23. LOVE. CAHING. AFFECTION 47.
24. SELF-RESPECT, SELF-ACCEPTANCE, SELF-SATISFACTION 48.
V-36
SELF-KNOWLEDGE, SELF-AWARENESS, GROWTH
SELF-CONFIDENCE, EGOISM
SECURITY
CHALLENGE, STIMULATION
PRIVACY
BOREDOM
ESCAPE, FANTASY
CONCERN, ALTRUISM, CONSIDERATION
HUMOR, AMUSING, WITTY
RELAXATION, LEISURE
SEX, SEXUAL SATISFACTION, SEXUAL PLEASURE
SUCCESS
ACHIEVEMENT, ACCOMPLISHMENT, JOB SATISFACTION
FAITH, RELIGIOUS AWARENESS
PEACE OF MIND, EMOTIONAL STABILITY, LACK OF CONFLICT
SUFFERING. PAIN
STABILITY, FAMILIARITY, SENSE OF PERMANENCE
INDIVIDUALITY
HUMILIATION. BELITTLEMENT
BEING NEEDED, FEELING OF BEING WANTED
CONFORMITY
SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, POPULARITY
FRIENDSHIP, COMPANIONSHIP
EDUCATIONAL, INTELLECTUALLY STIMULATING
-------
Table 2
CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGHER EDUCATION
1. SELF-AWARENESS, INCREASED SELF-UNDERSTANDING
2. MATURITY
3. ABILITY TO LEARN, LEARNING TO LEARN
4. CRITICAL ABILITY, QUESTIONING, DEVELOPMENT OF A
CRITICAL ATTITUDE
5. HONESTY, PERSONAL INTEGRITY
6. CURIOSITY, DESIRE TO LEARN MORE
7. SOCIAL AWARENESS. AWARENESS OF OTHERS
8. SOCIAL CONTACTS, OPPORTUNITY TO MEET A VARIETY OF
PEOPLE
9. TOLERANCE, DECREASE IN PREJUDICES
10. OPEN -M1NDEDNESS
11. UNDERSTANDING OF OTHERS
12. CULTURAL AWARENESS
13. SOCIAL ISSUES. AWARENESS OF SOCIETAL PROBLEMS
14. SOCIAL SKILLS, ABILITY TO GET ALONG WITH OTHERS
15. BROADER OUTLOOK, NEW PERSPECTIVES, SCOPE
16. POLITICAL MATURITY, POLITICAL AWARENESS
17. COMMUNICATION SKILLS
18. KNOWLEDGE
19. DEHUMANIZATION. REPRESSIVE BUREAUCRACY
20. CAREER SKILLS, JOB COMPETENCE
21. SPECIALIZATION, NARROWING OF INTEREST TO OWN FIELD
22. REASONING ABILITIES, ABILITY TO THINK
23. SELF-CONFIDENCE, SELF-RELIANCE. INDEPENDENCE
24. IRRELEVANCY, PRESCRIBED EDUCATION, EDUCATIONAL TRIVIA
25. MOTIVATION, COMPETITIVENESS
26. IMPRACTICAL EDUCATION, DISILLUSIONMENT WITH EDUCATIONAL
USEFULNESS
27. LOSS OF CREATIVITY, LOSS OF CREATIVE THINKING
28. GREATER CREATIVITY, EXPANDING THE IMAGINATION
29. LOSS OF IDEALISM, GENERAL DISSATISFACTION
30. RESPONSIBILITY
31. SEXUAL MATURITY, MORE LIBERAL SEXUAL ATTITUDE
32. POLITICAL DISILLUSIONMENT
33. NEW EXPERIENCES, EXPOSING TO NEW ACTIVITIES
34. NARROWING OF OUTLOOK, NARROWING OF VALUES
35. SELF-RESPECT, SELF-ACCEPTANCE, SELF-SATISFACTION
36. DEPENDENCY, PROLONGED YOUTH
37. SYNTHESIZING ABILITY. A SENSE OF ORGANIC RELATIONSHIP
38. AWARENESS OF ENVIRONMENT, RELATIONSHIP OF INDIVIDUAL WITH
ENVIRONMENT
39. LIBERALIZATION OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL VIEWS
40. PURPOSE IN LIFE, DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE GOALS
41. ELITISM, SOCIAL STATUS
42. INVOLVEMENT, POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT
43. CONCERN FOR SOCIETY, FELLOWMAN
44. RELATING TO OTHERS
V-37
-------
Table 3
QOL FACTORS
1. Novelty, change, newness, variety, surprise; boredom; humorous,
amusing, witty.
2. Peace of mind, emotional stability, lack of conflict; fear, anxiety;
suffering, pain; humiliation, belittlement; escape, fantasy.
3. Social acceptance, popularity; needed, feeling of being wanted;
loneliness, impersonality; flattering, positive feedback,
reinforcement.
4. Comfort, economic well-being; relaxation, leisure; good health.
5. Dominance, superiority; dependence, impotence, helplessness;
aggression, violence, hostility; power, control, independence.
6. Challenge, stimulation; competition, competitiveness; ambition;
opportunity, social mobility, luck; educational, intellectually
stimulating.
7. Self-respect, self-acceptance, self-satisfaction; self-confidence,
egoism; security; stability, familiarity, sense of permanence;
self-knowledge, self-awareness, growth.
8. Privacy.
9. Involvement, participation; concern, altruism, consideration.
10. Love, caring, affection; communication, interpersonal understanding;
friendship, companionship; honesty, sincerity, truthfulness; tolerance,
acceptance of others; faith, religious awareness.
*
11. Achievement, accomplishment, job satisfaction; success; failure,
defeat, losing; money, acquisitiveness, material greed; status,
reputation, recognition, prestige.
12. Individuality; conformity; spontaneity, impulsive, uninhibited; freedom.
13. Sex, sexual satisfaction, sexual pleasure.
V-38
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Table 4
EDUCATIONAL FACTORS
1. Greater creativity, expanding the imagination; loss of creativity, loss
of creative thinking.
2. Broader outlook, new perspectives, scope, new experiences, exposing
to new activities; knowledge; curiosity, desire to learn more.
3. Social awareness, awareness of others; awareness of environment,
relationship of individual with environment; cultural awareness; social
issues, awareness of societal problems.
4. Career skills, job competence; specialization, narrowing of interest
to own field; elitism, social status.
5. Involvement, political involvement; isolation from real world, ivory-
tower syndrome; dehumanization, repressive bureaucracy.
6. Self-awareness, increased self-understanding; honesty, personal
integrity.
7. Loss of idealism, general dissatisfaction; political disillusionment.
8. Self-confidence, self-reliance, independence; self-respect, self-
acceptance, self-satisfaction; maturity; sexual maturity, more liberal
sexual attitude.
9. Tolerance, decrease in prejudices; open-mindedness; understanding
of others; narrowing of outlook, narrowing of values; liberalization of
social and political views.
10. Communication skill; relating to others; social contacts, opportunity
to meet a variety of people; social skills, ability to get along with
others.
11. Responsibility;, concern for society, fellowman; political maturity,
political awareness.
12. Motivation, competitiveness, purpose in life, development of life
goals.
13. Dependency, prolonged youth.
14 Ability to learn, learning to learn; reasoning abilities, ability to
think, critical ability, questioning, development of a critical attitude;
synthesizing ability, a sense of organic relationship.
15 Impractical education, disillusionment with educational usefulness;
irrelevancy, prescribed education, educational trivia.
V-39
-------
Table 5
STRUCTURE OF STUDENT JUDGMENTS FOR SESSION THREE
QOL Group
Subgroup 1
Split 100
N = 20
Subgroup 2
Magnitude
Es tiraation
N = 19
EE Group
Subgroup 3
Split 100
N - 19
Subgroup 4
7-pt rating
scale
N - 18
Part 1
Label factors
Rate self-
confidence
with each
factor on
a 1 — 5 pt
scale
Split 100
pts among
the factors
according
to impor-
tance of
each factor
Label factors
Rate self-
confidence
with each
factor on
a 1 — 5 pt
scale
Rate the
most impor-
tant factor
with 100 pts
and rate the
other factors
proportionately
Label factors
Rate self-
confidence
with each
factor on
a 1 — 5 pt
scale
Split 100
pts among
the factors
according to
importance
of each
factor
Label factors
Rate self-
confidence
with each
factor on
a 1—5 pt
scale
Rate the
importance
of each
factor on a
1 to 7 pt
scale
Part 2
Revise
ratings in
light of
group me-
dian and
quartiles
for each
factor
Revise
ratings in
light of
group me-
dian and
ranges
for each
factor
Revise
ratings in
light of
group me-
dian and
quartiles
for each
factor
Revise
ratings .in
light of
group me-
dian and
quartiles
for each
factor
Part 3
Rate the
relevance
of each EE
factor to
each of the
QOL factors
on a 0 to 3
point scale
Rate the
relevance
of each EE
factor of
each of the
QOL factors
on a 0 to 3
point scale
Rate the
relevance
of each EE
factor to
each of the
QOL factors
on a 0 to 3
point scale
Rate the
relevance
of each EE
factor to
each of the
QOL factors
on a 0 to 3
point scale
V-40
-------
QOL factors rated them as did the subjects who generated the EE
factors. The design of this session is shown schematically in
Table 5. As can be seen in Table 5, the QOL and EE groups were
each split into two subgroups, and each subgroup used a different
scaling procedure. During the third part of the session, the QOL
and EE group both rated the relevance of each of the EE factors in
terms of its contribution to each of the QOL factors. Otherwise,
the groups were treated identically.
In order to familiarize the subjects with the factors they
would be rating, they were instructed to look over the factors and
devise a convenient word or phrase label for each. The subjects
were then asked to rate their self-confidence in working with each
of the factors on a 1 to 5-point scale. The factors they felt most
confident about were to receive a 5 and those they felt least confi-
dent about were to receive a 1. Next the subjects were requested
to rate the relative importance of each factor in terms of the con-
tribution of that factor to the general topic. Using the split-100
(S-100) procedure, QOL Group 1 and EE Group 1 were instructed
to distribute 100 points among the factors so that the most impor-
tant factors received the most points. Using the magnitude-
estimation (M-E) procedure QOL Group 2 was instructed to find
the most important factor and give it a rating of 100. Then this
group was asked to rate the other factors in terms of the most im-
portant one, so that a factor which they felt was half as important
as the most important was to receive a rating of 50. The group
using the rating scale (7-pt) procedure (EE Group 2) was asked to
use a 1- to 7-point scale to rate the factors; a rating of 1 was to
apply to "unimportant" factors, 4 to "moderately important" ones,
and 7 to "extremely important" factors.
The subjects recorded their self-confidence ratings, factor
labels, and importance ratings on preprinted response sheets.
They also kept a record of their labels and importance ratings
which they referred to during the second and third parts of the
session.
During the second part of the session, the subjects again
rated the importance of the factors with the same method which
they used during the first part. This time, however, they were
given information about the group's previous ratings on each of the
factors. The QOL split-100, EE split-100, and EE 7-point rating
scale groups were provided with the median and the first and third
quartiles for each factor, while the QOL magnitude-estimation
group was given ranges and medians which were normalized so that
the largest median was 100. The instructions explained the
V-41
-------
meanings of the statistics and requested the subjects to consider
this information in revising their estimates of the relative impor-
tance of each of the factors. The subjects were given 20 minutes
to complete this part of the experiment.
During the third part of the session, the QOL and EE groups
rated the "relevance" of each of the EE factors to each of the QOL
factors. Each group received response sheets containing spaces
along the top for each of the factor labels that they had developed
during the first part of the session, and a list of QOL factors or
EE factors, respectively, down the left margin. The subjects
were briefly informed about the origin of the list of factors appear-
ing on the left margin of their worksheets. Next, the subjects were
instructed to familiarize themselves with these new lists of factors.
Any questions concerning the list were answered by the experi-
menter. Finally, the subjects were required to rate the relevance
of each of the EE factors to each of the QOL factors on a 0- to 3-
point rating scale. Relevance was defined in the instructions as
either "contributing to" or "means the same thing as. " The 0- to
3-point scale was tied to the following adjectives:
3 Contributes strongly (or is
pretty much the same)
2 Contributes moderately
1 Contributes slightly
0 Irrelevant
The subjects were allowed 30 minutes for the completion of
this part of the session.
V-42
-------
SUGGESTED READINGS
-------
SUGGESTED READINGS
Bauer, Raymond A. (Ed.). Social Indicators. Cambridge; MIT
Press, 1966. ~~
Biderman, Albert D. Social Indicators - Whence and Whitter.
A paper presented to First Annual Social Indicators Conference,
American Marketing Association, Febs 17-18, 1972.
Campbell, Angus and Philip Converse. The Human Meaning of
Social Change. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1972.
Commission on Population Growth and the American Future.
Population and the American Future, 1972.
Duncan, Otis Dudley. Toward Social Reporting: Next Steps.
New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1969.
Gross, Bertram, Social Intelligence for America's Future. New
Jersey: Allynn and Bacon, Inc., 1969.
Gross, Bertram and Michael Springer. "Social Goals and Indica-
tors for American Society Volume 1. " The Annals, May 1967.
Gross, Bertram and Michael Springer. "Social Goals and Indica-
tors for American Society Volume 2. " The Annuals, Sept. 1967.
Huddle, Franklin P. The Evolution and Dynamics of National
Goals in the United States. Congressional Research Service:
Washington, D. C. , 1971.
Sheldon, Eleanor and Wilbert E. Moore (Editors). Indicators
of Social Change. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1968.
U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Toward a
Social Report. U. S. Government Printing Office: Washington,
D. C., January 1969.
*U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1972 514-147/40 1-3
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