Prepublication issue for EPA libraries
and State Solid Waste Management Agencies
BASE LINE FORECASTS
OF
RESOURCE RECOVERY, 1972 TO 1990
Final Report
This report (SW-107c) on work performed under
Federal solid waste management contract no. 68-01-0793
to MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE
and is reproduced as received from contractor
Copies of this report will be available from the
National Technical Information Service
U.S. Department of Commerce
Springfield, Virginia 22151
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
1975
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This report has been reviewed by the Resource Recovery Division, OSWMP,
EPA, and approved for publication. .Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental
Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial
products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use/
An environmental protection publication (SW-107c) in solid waste
management series.
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PREFACE
The study was carried out under EPA Contract 68-01-0793 as MRI
Project No. 3736-D, "Resource Recovery Forecasts to 1990." The basic
objective of the study was to develop forecasts of recovery of materials
common to municipal solid waste for the 1972 to 1990 period. These mate-
rials are: ferrous metals, glass, aluminum, plastic, rubber and paper.
In addition, a similar recovery forecast was developed for mixed municipal
waste. The principal resource recovery options identified as the most
viable were materials recycling and energy/fuel recovery. The forecasts
were made under the contractual "given" that specific federal legislation
would not occur to stimulate or discourage recycling.
In general, we found that resource recovery from municipal waste
is likely to be significant in the years ahead. Because the study took
place in a period of unusually dynamic change in energy supply and natural
resource use, we were unable to evaluate fully the impact of these rapid
changes on our long-range forecasts. However, we believe that our fore-
casts will prove to be conservative for resource recovery when the implica-
tions of the energy and resource supply "crisis" are fully understood.
The project was under the general direction of Mr. Gary R. Nuss,
Manager, Economics and Management Science Division. Mr. William E. Franklin,
Manager, Resource and Environmental Economics Programs, was project leader
and a principal analyst. Other analysts on the study were Mr. David Hahlen,
Mr. William Park, Mr. Michael Urie and Mr. James Cross.
The EPA project officer was Mr. Michael Loube, who provided valuable
guidance and direction to the research team.
Approved for:
MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Gary R. Nuss.
Economics and Management Science Division
iii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter I - Introduction 1
Purpose of Study 2
Research Objectives and Scope 2
Basic Assumptions of the Study 3
Report Organization 4
Chapter II - Overview of Resource Recovery Forecasts to 1990 .... 6
Overview of Study Findings 6
Resources Recovered from Mixed Municipal Solid Wastes 7
Chapter III - Resource Recovery from Municipal Solid Waste 17
Forecasting Resource Recovery from Mixed Municipal Wastes ... 17
Basic Resource Recovery Economics 18
The Economics of Sanitary Landfill for Disposal. ...... 18
The Economics of Resource Recovery 19
The Economics of Disposal Versus Resource Recovery .... 24
How Land Values for Disposal Sites were Determined .... 26
Economically Recoverable Solid Wastes 32
Energy Values and Land Costs 32
Where Resource Recovery Will Be Economically Feasible. . . 34
Quantity of Solid Wastes Processed for Resource Recovery. ... 46
Solid Wastes Processed for Resource Recovery 46
Number of Resource Recovery Systems in Operation 53
Chapter IV - General Approach and Methodology for Analysis of Seven
Materials in Solid Wastes 62
Introduction 62
General Methodology and Approach . 62
Basic Economic and Population Data 64
General Observations on Materials Recovery 64
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Page
Chapter V - Recovery Forecasts for Glass Containers to 1990. 67
Summary 67
Introduction 68
Glass Container Demand by Market, 1962 to 1990 70
Trends of Container Demand 70
Trends in Container Weight 73
Waste Generation from Glass Containers. . 78
Waste Glass Container Generation by Source. . . . 78
Glass Containers in Household, Commercial and Industrial
Waste. 78
\
Glass Containers in Litter . 83
Glass Containers Recoverable from Waste 86
Glass Container Recycling Forecasts, 1972 to 1990 87
Current Recycling Practices and Separate Collection 87
Recovery of Glass Containers from Mixed Municipal Waste. . . 89
Recovery Forecasts for Glass Containers. .......... 91
Chapter VI - Recovery Forecasts for Ferrous Metals to 1990 96
Summary 96
Recovery of Ferrous Metal Cans and Miscellaneous Metal Waste. . . 97
Introduction 97
Metal Can Demand by Market, 1962 to 1990 98
Metal Can Demand by Type of Metal . 101
Steel Consumption in Cans 106
Ferrous Metal Waste Generation by Source. 108
Waste Generation - Steel Cans. 108
Steel Cans in Litter 110
Non-Can Ferrous Metal in. Municipal Waste. Ill
Total Ferrous Metal Waste Generation, 1972 to 1990 112
vi
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TABIJE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Ferrous Metal Recoverable from Municipal Waste 113
Ferrous Metal Recycling Forecasts, 1972 to 1990 113
Current Steel Can Recycling Practices 113
Recovery of Ferrous Metals for Recycling from Mixed
Municipal Wastes 115
Recycling Options for Steel Recovered from Mixed Waste 117
Conclusions 1'20
Recovery Forecasts for Ferrous Metals 121
Recovery Forecasts for Steel in Major Appliances to 1990 124
Production, Use and Discard Cycles for Appliances 124
Appliance Steel Recycling Forecasts, 1972 to 1990 132
Chapter VII - Recovery Forecasts for Aluminum to 1990 135
Summary 135
Introduction 136
Aluminum Packaging Demand by Market, 1962 to 1990 ........ 137
Introduction 137
Aluminum Cans . . 137
Foil Packaging 140
Waste Generation from Aluminum Packaging 140
Aluminum Packaging Waste Generation by Source 140
Aluminum Packaging Waste Recoverable 142
Aluminum in Consumer Durable Products 142
Appliance Aluminum Waste by Source 145
Recoverability of Aluminum in Appliances 146
Aluminum Recoverable from Municipal Waste 146
Recovery Forecasts for Aluminum, 1972 to 1990 147
Recovery from Mixed Waste at Centralized Processing Systems. 147
Recovery of Aluminum Via Other Methods 147
vii
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NTr. '(continued) .'
Page
Chapter VIII - Recovery Forecasts for Plastics to 1990 ....... 151
1 'V ,''''"• • .
Summary ...... ... . . . . . . .. ..... . ..... . . 151
Introduction. ... . . . ... . -,••-• • - • . ..... . • . ... 15.3
Plastic Packaging Resin Demand, 1965 to 1990. . . . ... . . . 154
General Trends in Packaging Plastics Demand to 1990. . . . 154
Resin Use by Type of Resin ..... ..... . ..... 155
Resin Demand by £nd Use.'.., . ... ....... ..... 157
Plastic Waste Generation from Packaging and Nonpackaging
Sources .......... ............ ..... 159
Introduction . ..... ...... ........ ... 159
Waste Generation from Plastic Packaging ............ 160
Plastic Packaging Waste Generation by Source ....... 160
Plastic Packaging Recoverable from Waste. ...... . . . . . 162
Plastics Recovery Forecast.';, 1972 to 1990 ..... ...... 164
Plastic Packaging Recovery,' 197?. ............. 164
Recovery of Plastics from Municipal Waste, 1972-1990 . . . 165
Recovery Forecast for Plastics, 1972 to 1990 ....... 167
Cha.pr.er IX - Ror.overy Forecasts for Rubber Tires to 1990 ...... 169
Summary ..... ............. .......... 169
Introduction. ..... ,. ......; ...... ...... 170
Rubber Tire Demand by Market '!, 1962 to 1990 ..... ...... 171
Forecast of Tota Tire Demand to. 1990. . . ... . . . . . 171
xirc COM fit ruction Trends ...... . .......... 171
Waste Generation from Discarded Tires. .......... 175
Ti.re Waste Getierar.ion by Source . ............... 179
T .!,:•:« Waste in ^Hous:2h\cid.,\';1piiiiperr.;lar/J.nst;itut'ion3i and
Industrial Wastes ,i . ..'..... ... . . . . , . . . . 179
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TABU: OF. CONTENTS (concluded)
Page
Tire Wastes in Litter 180
Tire Recoverable from Waste i80
Chapter X - Resource Recovery for Paper to 1990 184
Introduction and Overview 185
Forecasts of Paper Demand 187
Forecast Results 189
Waste Paper Generation 192
Calculating Waste Paper Generation Rates . . 195
Waste Paper Generated by Source. 204
Waste Paper Recycling in the Paper Industry 211
The Recoverability of Waste Paper for Recycling 217
Summary of the Impact of Recycling on Solid Waste 224
Other Resource Recovery Options and Recovery Mechanisms for
Paper to 1990 229
Recovery of the Heat Content of Waste Paper 230
Summary of Waste Paper Recovery Via All Options 231
Appendix A - An Overview of Trends in the Use of Packaging Containers
for Beverages, Food, and Other Products 233
Appendix B - Trends in the Demand for Ferrous Scrap in Iron and Steel
Production 294
Appendix C - An Overview of Aluminum Industry Production and Scrap
Usage Characteristics, 1960 to 1990 301
;
Appendix D - Analysis of Packaging Plastic Resin Demand by End Use . . 309
Appendix E - Background Data for Paper Recovery Forecasts, 1972-1990 . 327
Appendix F - References and Sources 366
IX
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
We are a materials-using nation, and our economy, with its huge
industrial base, clearly reflects this fact. To feed this "materials
economy," natural resources of the nation (and world) are extracted from
the earth, processed and refined, and converted into useful products. Any
product put into use serves a value or intended function to the user. How-
ever, all products also lose their usefulness over time (a .few seconds to a
span of decades) and then become discards or solid waste.
The quantity of solid wastes generated is linked directly to the
total use of materials in economic activity and the rate at which they are
discarded as waste. The only ways to reduce the amount of solid waste dis-
posal without reducing the rate of use or reuse of materials are to:
(1) extend the life of the products we use, and/or (2) usefully recover for
recycling or other purposes waste materials that would otherwise be disposed
of in dumps, landfills and incinerators.
Resource recovery is a viable alternative to waste disposal. In
1973 the strains of increasing demand on the natural resource base improved
the economic potential of resource recovery. Commercial resource recovery
projects previously "years away" are now in the design stage. Large scale
resource recovery units will be in operation by 1975 or 1^)76, and more will
follow.
. This study was done in a period of unusual pressure on resource
supply and industrial capacity to produce materials from virgin resources.
In fact, in 1973 the prices of secondary materials were the highest they
had ever been and supplies in some cases fell below short-term demand.
Likewise, export demand was contributing to the scarcity of raw materials
supplies in the U.S.A. At the same time resource recovery seemed to have
suddenly "come of age," as several significant commercial projects were
announced during the study period. Added to this was an "energy crisis"
which seemed to burst upon the nation suddenly, although ample evidence of
this phenomenon was available years ago. Conservation, a word often used in
reference to environmental groups and other groups seeking to preserve wilder-
ness areas, became a-broad concern, not only of the industry, but of the public
and of government as well.
A realistic assessment of the future of resource recovery from
municipal waste is the subject of this report—to establish "base line"
forecasts of resource recovery for the period 1972 to 1990.
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PURPOSE OF STUDY
This study was designed by the Office of Solid Waste Management
Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency to serve as a background
document for resource recovery forecasts for the period 1972 to 1990. The
purpose of the research was to establish "base line" data for resource re-
covery which is a counterpart to solid waste generation.
Once base line forecasts are established for industrial resource
recovery requirements and solid waste recovery potential, then there is a
basis for- testing various alternatives that might alter the pattern of
resource recovery — to stimulate resource recovery from municipal waste and
thus reduce solid waste disposal requirements.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE
The objectives of this research work were to develop to 1990 a
supply and demand analysis of resource recovery from municipal solid waste.
The objectives included a forecast of: (1) the quantity of municipal waste
generated; (2) the recovery of resources from mixed municipal wastes; (3)
the recovery of specific manufactured materials commonly found in solid wastes;
(4) the total recoverable quantity of each of the seven waste materials;
(5) the source of waste generated categorized as: residential, commercial/
institutional and industrial waste. The materials included in the study
are: glass, ferrous metals, aluminum, plastics, paper and rubber.
o
A number of related steps were required to develop basic data to
meet the primary objectives of the study. First, an analysis of municipal
solid waste trends were considered from the standpoint of: waste gen-
eration, composition, and resource recovery potential to 1990. Included
in this analysis was the recovery of materials for recycling and energy
conversion. Second, the major recovery modes were considered: centralized
waste processing facilities, transfer station separation, separate collec-
tion centers and source separation of materials .(including present scrap
industry operations). Forecasts of actual resource recovery were developed
to 1990 with the principal emphasis,on centralized waste processing units.
to recover energy and materials.
Third, each of the specific materials was considered separately
and in detail for a recovery profile to 1990. This included analysis of
each of the materials for forecasts of total demand for finished products;
generation rates of waste for each; availability of these materials from
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residential, commercial/institutional, and industrial sources; analysis of
waste generation rates in selected geographic and population units; present
recovery and forecast demand for recycled materials. The resource recovery
forecasts developed were then reconciled to produce a common forecast of
resource recovery to 1990.
, Specific attention was given to major products or processes within
each materials group that constitute the most significant component of muni-
cipal wastes; e.g., glass containers, plastics packaging, and metal cans. Paper
for all uses was covered completely. Market factors that might affect the
forecasts were also considered, such as trends in the use of materials and con-
tainers, packaging practices, intermaterial competition and other factors.
Basic Assumptions of the Study
There was one contractual "given" for the study—the base line
forecasts were to be developed assuming there would be no federal legisla-
tion to stimulate resource recovery to 1990. In other words, the objective
of the study was to develop a "base line" forecast of what resource recovery
would actually be in 1990 as a consequence of forces at work outside the
federal establishment. However, pollution control regulations or other
federal actions were included, including those that might impact resource
recovery in the future. (Presumably the effect of any proposed federal
initiative to stimulate resource recovery could be tested against the base
line data.) . '
The evidence for the observations th;it follow is not yet solid
enough to document thoroughly. Thus it was necessary to make some broad
judgmental assumptions based on our current understanding of some rather
fundamental forces at work in economics, resource utilization and environ-
mental quality improvement.
First, we assumed that the effects of the "energy crisis" and re-
source supply shortage are principally of short-range duration (2-4 years)
and that there will be an adequate supply of raw materials without inter-
ruption of basic demand trends for products. At the same time it appears
likely that recycling of materials from solid waste will become more
prevalent to meet supply requirements. We have also assumed that the
"energy crisis" is more likely to manifest itself as an inducement to re-
source recovery than to a basic change in demand patterns for plastic
products, rubber, and textiles which'are derived largely from hydrocarbons.
In other words, a "flow-through" concept in which hydrocarbons are used
first as a manufactured product, (e.g., plastic), with recovery of the hydro-
carbon energy value after discard,, is the more likely pattern to 1990. How-
ever, process energy conservation may also encourage recycling practices
whenever significant energy savings can be demonstrated in using recycled
material as opposed to virgin materials.
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In addition we havxe assumed ..that the general economy will continue
to have significant real growth,averaging in the range of 4 percent per year
over a long period.and that population,growth.will increase from 212 million
in 1973 to 261 million in 1990, as .found in the Bureau of the Census, Series
P-2, No. 476, published in February 1972.
Within the solid waste sector itself, we have assumed, on the basis
of conclusions from other work, that resource recovery l^.as been demonstrated
to be feasible under certain circumstances and that major metropolitan areas
will consider it a viable alternative to traditional disposal in the years
ahead. Also, we assumed that regional resource recovery planning and imple-
mentation now under way will proceed.
Much of the basic data in this study presume that the nation is
now entering an era in which we will be more resource conscious, but in
which the historic patterns'of demand will maintain their overall trends.
The makeup of the raw materials that meet demand, howe.ver, could shift
toward resource recovery on a gradual but steady basis, and units of govern-
ment will enter the raw materials supply business (including energy) via
solid waste recovery processing alternatives.
Report Organization
The balance of this report is organized around the identifiable
materials groups. Chapter II summarizes the forecasts of resource recovery
for mixed municipal wastes including the recovery of materials discussed in
lat^r chapters. Next, Chapter III addresses the potential for centralized
processing of mixed municipal wastes and energy recovery from the organic
fraction.
Chapter IV is a short introduction to the specific materials
studied in detail. It gives the purpose of the material-by-material
forecasts and other general introduction to the analyses of specific in-
dustrial requirements for recycled materials.
Chapters V through X cover the demand forecasts for materials
found in solid waste that were studied separately. There is a chapter
each on: ferrous metals, aluminum, glass, plastics, rubber and paper.
Each .chapter develops the demand forecast for the industry to 1990; the
generation of solid waste; the source of solid waste; the quantity of solid
waste that appears to be recoverable; and our forecast of resource recovery
for that particular material as recycling or other recovery alternatives
such as energy. Included is the manner in which recovery from iwaste will
take place—centralized waste processing, collection centers, source
separation, etc.
4
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Finally there is a series of appendices that give back-up detail
for several subjects of interest. Appendix A is the back-up detail for
packaging materials and configurations where intermaterials competition
takes place, i.e., steel, aluminum, glass and plastics. Particular em-
phasis is given to beverage and food packaging because the two together
make up most of the packaging materials requirements for the materials
cited above. :
Appendix B is a discussion of the trends in steel scrap usage.
Appendix C is a special section on trends in the use of scrap in the
aluminum industry to 1990. Appendix D is an analysis of plastic resin
demand by end use providing back-up detail to. Chapter VIII. Appendix K
contains back-up analysis and detail on the paper Chapter (X). References
and data sources are given in bibliographic form in Appendix F.
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CHAPTER II
OVERVIEW OF RESOURCE RECOVERY FORECASTS TO 1990
OVERVIEW OF STUDY FINDINGS
I By 1990, 40 metropolitan areas in the United Stares will be
/—•—v
operating 60 centralized resource recovery plants, processing about 49 million
tons of mixed municipal solid wastes annuallyj These plants are expected
to recover: 2.8 million tons of ferrous metal; 0.4 million tons of aluminum;
0.6 million tons of glass; 0.5 million tons of paper; and 486 x 10^ Btu of
energy for use in power generation during 1990. The wastes processed by
these resource recovery operations will represent approximately 25 percent
of the 200 million tons of mixed municipal solid wastes expected to be
generated that year.
The centralized large resource recovery systems in 1990 will be
concentrated primarily along the East and West Coasts and in the North Central
states. However, virtually every state with a city of SMSA having a population
base in excess of 300,000 will likely have at least one large resource recovery
system in operation.
In addition to resources recovered through central processing
facilities, there will be additional recovery from municipal wastes at dis-
posal sites and other collection points.^ This recovery will take place via
source separation/collection; collection centers; separation at transfer
stations and separation at disposal sites.. The quantities recovered via
noncentralized modes from municipal wastes are forecast to be: 0.3 million
tons of ferrous metals, including appliances; 0.15 million tons of aluminum;
0.25 million tons of glass; and 2.0 million tons of paper recovered in con-
junction with solid waste collection.
]These two combined major recovery modes will result in a total
! , . I O
recoveryjiTfrom 200 million tons of waste generated, of 486 x 10 Btu of
energy; 3.1 million tons of ferrous metal; 0.5 million tons of aluminum;
0.85 million tons of glass, and 2.5 million tons of paper recovered in con-
junction with solid waste.)
! ^
The chief impetus for resource recovery will come primarily from
two directions: (1) the increasing cost of disposal by sanitary landfill,
brought about by rapidly rising land and operating costs and a scarcity
of suitable landfill sites that can be purchased and developed; and (2) the
decreasing net cost of solid waste processing in energy-recovery systems,
a result of the increasing cost of conventional fuels and the comparable
increase's in the value of recovered energy. Materials recovery will add
impetus to this basic trend.
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RESOURCES RECOVERED FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTES'
In recovery systems recovering organic materials for fuel or.
energy uses, ferrous metals are easily removed and sold as scrap, and this
magnetic separation process is an integral part of any resource recovery
system. Additionally, aluminum is expected to be recovered in view of its
high scrap value, and by 1985 essentially all aluminum will be processed
for recovery from mixed wastes that are also being processed for use as ,
fuel. The separation of ferrous and nonferrous metals from the organic
portion of the solid waste stream leaves glass, which has a relatively
low unit value, but nevertheless can be a worthwhile commodity when a
suitable local market exists, especially in the form of a glass container
manufacturing plant. Paper will also be removed, but generally prior to
entering a centralized waste-processing facility.
Typical mixed municipal solid wastes in 1975 will contain at
"median" waste generation rates of 140 million tons, 11.5 percent glass by
weight; 8.5 percent ferrous metal; and 1.4 percent nonferrous metal, chiefly
aluminum. The .combustible portion of the waste (paper, plastics, rubber,
textiles, yard waste, garbage, etc.) has an energy value of about 5,000 Btu
per pound (4,500 on the basis of raw refuse). By 1990, the percent content
of these recoverable materials will have changed, based upon the changes in
total waste generated and the MRI forecasts of the quantity of metal and
glass in total demand. For example, by 1990 our estimates are as follows:
ferrous metal, 8.2 percent; nonferrous metal, 1.5 percent; and glass, 8.4
percent: The percentages of inorganic materials will decrease while the-
organic materials, especially plastics and- textiles, will increase. The 'pro-
portion of paper in waste will decrease slightly. We have assumed that
the Btu content of raw municipal waste will increase over time — from 9 x
Btu/ton in 1972 to 9.3 x 106 in 1980; 9.6 x 106 in 1985; and 10.0 x 106 in
1990.
A 1,000 ton per day (300,000 ton per year) resource recovery .
plant will have the following recovery potential annually:
Material 1972 1975 . 1980 1985 1990
Ferrous metal
(tons) 21,675 21,675 21,165 21,675 20,910
Nonferrous
metal (tons) 1,365 1,560 1,755 2,145 2,340.
Glass (tons) 19,695 20,475 20,085 18,135 16,380
Combustibles .221.700 219.900 220.800 222.600 225.900
(energy)
Total Recoverable 264,435 263,610 263,805 264,555 265,530
Nonrecoverable 35,565 36,390 36,195 35,455 34,470
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These values were calculated based on the average composition of the waste
for each base year less an unrecoverable residue that would '>e a yield loss
or ash. The recovery efficiency for each material is given in the summary
tables that follow. The high recovery potential for organics is based upon
processing for fuel or energy products; otherwise the only recoverable mate-
rial in organics is paper.
Tables 1 through 7 summarize the quantities of these five re-
sources expected to be recovered in various years over the 1972-1990 period.
The data in these tables were derived from MRI's estimates of
the number of waste-processing facilities that would be in operation each
5-year period for the recovery of energy from mixed waste and. from the
recovery of materials for recycling via centralized waste processing and
other recovery modes such as collection centers and separation at transfer
stations. The values for the inorganic materials recovered are developed
in later sections of the report and are only summarized here.
I
Table 1 summarizes projected recovery in centralized waste pro-
cessing facilities. Here it is assumed that the amount of each material
"available" is based upon the national rate of waste generation developed
in each materials chapter, i.e., the demand for the material adjusted to
the amount entering the waste stream in any given year.
The recovery rate for ferrous metals, aluminum and glass is based
on MRI estimates of mechanical recovery efficiency of separation techniques
and on the marketability of any material. For example, ferrous metals are
considered to be recoverable at 85 percent mechanical efficiency and market-
able from all locations. Aluminum recovery technology is assumed to he
viable by 1985 with an estimated recovery efficiency of 65 percent. Aluminum
is fully marketable where recovered. Glass is recovered only where glass
container plants are nearby, and color sorted at a recovery efficiency of
70 percent by 1990. Energy is recovered at ,its full content which means
that the entire organic fraction is utilized as fuel; this is expressed
the same way as fosril fuel equivalent,, i.e., before any heat losses in
the energy conversion use itself.
In Table 2 the inorganic materials recovered from other wastes
not centrally processed are summarized. This is recovery from transfer
stations, from collection centers and via source separation/collection
techniques in the solid waste management system itself. Most of these
show a limit of 250,000 tons which represents the practical limits of these
separation options and the fact that more solid waste goes through central
processing systems each year.
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TABLE 1
SUMMARY OF RESOURCES RECOVERED FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTES
AT CENTRAL
(In 1
Category
Total solid =waste -generated
Total solid waste processed
7, solid waste processed
Resources available/recovered
in waste processed:
Energy 1012 Btu - available
Energy 10^2 Btu - recovered
Glass available
Glass recovered
Ferrous metal available
Ferrous metal recovered
Aluminum available
Aluminum recovered
Paper available
Paper recovered
PROCESSING
,000 tons
1972
130,000
Neg.
Neg.
- .
Neg.
Neg.
o-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PLANTS. 1972
and 1012 Btu)
1975
140,000
2,100
1-5
18.9
18.9
220
10
150
127
18
"." ,. 1
650
Neg.
TO 1990
1980
160,000
6,600
4.1
61.4
61.4
680
100
465
395
62
12
2,100
50
1985
180,000
24,000
13.3
-
230.4
230.4
2,230
350
1,705
1,450
250
165
7,650
200
1990
200,000 :
48,600
24.3
486.0
486.0
4,080
600
3,315
2,815
560
365
16,350
500
Neg. = Negligible
Source: Midwest Research Institute
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TABLE 2
SUMMARY OF RESOURCES RECOVERED FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL SOLID-
WASTES NOT
Category
Total solid waste generated
Total solid waste not centrally
processed
Resources available/recovered
in waste not processed
Glass available
Glass recovered
Ferrous metal available
Ferrous metal recovered
Aluminum available
Aluminum recovered
Paper available
Paper recovered
CENTRALLY
(In 1.
1972
130,000
130,000
13,200
275
11,100
70
900
27
41,500
50
PROCESSED. 1972
000 tons)
1975
140,000
137,900
14,280
265
11,550
158
1,182
50
41,450
300
TO 1990
1980
160,000
153,400
15,720
275
12,535
195
1,438
93
48,450
600
1985
180,000
156,000
14,370
250
13,445
265
1,650
115
49,650
1,000
1990
200,000
151,400
12,820
250
13,085
320
1,740
145
50,800
2,000
Source: Midwest Research Institute
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TABLE 3
SUMMARY OF RESOURCES RECOVERED FROM MIXED
MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTES. 1972 TO 1990
(In 1,000 tons 1012 Btu and percent)
Category..
Energy - 1012 Btu
Recovery - 7» of available
Glass recovery
Recovery - 70 of available
Ferrous metals recovery
Recovery - °L of available
Aluminum recovery
Recovery - °/a of available
a/
Paper recovery-
Recovery - 7» of available
1972
1975
1980
Source: Midwest Research Institute
a/ "Energy recovery from paper included under Energy.
1985
1990
Neg.
Neg.
275
2.8
70
0.6
27
3.0
50
0.1
18.9
1.5
275
1.8
285
2.4
51
4.2
300
0.7
61.4
4.1
375.
2.3
590
4.5
105 .
7.0
650
1.3
230.4
13.3
600
3.6
1,715
11.3
280
14.7
1,200
2.1
486.0
24.3,
85.0
5.0
3,135.;
19.1
'. 51°
22.2.
2,500
: 3.7
11
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TABLE 4
SUMMARY OF GLASS PROCESS-ING/RECOVERY^FOR MIXED
MUNICIPAL WASTE
(In
Category
Total solid waste generated
Glass available
% glass of total waste
Total waste processed (central
facilities)
Glass content
Glass processed for recovery
Resource recovered - glass
Resource not recovered - glass
Total waste not centrally
processed
Glass content
Glass recovered
Glass not recovered-
Total resource recovery - glass
Percent recovery of total - glas
1,000 tons
1972
130,000
13,200
10.1
. 0
0
0
0
0
130,000
13,200
275
12,925
275
3S 2.8
. 1972 TO 1990
and percent)
1975
140,000
14,500 .
10.5
2,100
220
20
10
175
137,900
14,280
265
14,025
275
1.8
1980
160,000
16,400
10.3
6,600
680
170
100
455
153,400
15,720
275
16,025
375
2.3
1985
180,000
16,600
9.3
24,000
2,230
540
350
1,350
156,000
14,370
250
16,000
600
3.6
1990
200,000
16,900
8.4
48,600
4,080
.860
600
2,315
151,400
12,820
250
16,050
850
5.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute
a/ Includes glass from central processing facilities not recovered.
-------
TABLE 5
SUMMARY OF FERROUS METALS PROCESSING/RECOVERY FOR
MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO
Cln
Category
Total solid waste generated
Ferrous metal available—
7<> ferrous metal of total waste
Total waste processed (central
facilities)
Ferrous metal content— ' _
Ferrous metal recovered at
0.85 yield
Ferrous metal not recovered
Total waste not centrally
processed
Ferrous metal content-
Ferrous metal recovered
Ferrous metal not recovered—'
Total resource recovery -
ferrous metal
Percent recovery of total -
ferrous metal
1,000 tons
1972
130,000
11,100
8.5
Neg.
0
0
0
130,000
11,100
70
11,030
70
0.6
and percent)
1975
140,000
11,700
8.5
2,100
150
127
23
137,900
11,550
158
-11,415
285
2.4
1990
1980
160,000
13,100
8.3
6,600
465
395
70
153,400
12,535
195
12,510
590
4.5
1985
180,000
15,200
8.5
24,000
1,705
1,450
255
156,000
13,495
265
13,485
1,715
11.3
1990
200,000
16,400
8.2
48,600
3,315
2,815
500
151,400
13,085
320
13,265
3,135
19.1
Source: Midwest Research Institute
aj Includes ferrous metal in appliances.
b_/ Excludes ferrous metal in appliances.
£/ Includes ferrous metal in appliances.
d/ Includes ferrous metal not recovered from central processing facilities.
-------
TABLE 6
SUMMARY OF ALUMINUM PROCESSING/RECOVERY FOR
MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE, 1972 TO
(In
Category
Total solid waste generated
a/
Aluminum available— :
7o aluminum of total waste
Total waste processed (central
facilities)
Aluminum content
Aluminum processed for recovery
Aluminum recovered at 65% yield
Aluminum not recovered
Total waste not centrally
processed
Aluminum content
Aluminum recovered
Aluminum not recovered—'
Total resource recovery -
aluminum
Percent recovery of total -
aluminum
1,000 tons
1972
130,000
900
0.7
Neg.
0
0
0
0
130,000
900
27
873
27
3.0
and percent)
1975
140,000
1,200
0.9
2,100
18
2
1
17
137,900
1,182
50
1,149
51
4.2
1990
1980
160,000
-1,500
0.9
6,600
62
20
12
50
153,400
1,438
93
1,395
105
7.0
1985
180,000
1,900
1.0
24,000
250
250
165
85
156,000.
1,650
115
1,620
280
.
14.7
1990
200,000
2,300
1.2
48,600
560
560
365
195
151,400
1,740
145
1,790
510
22.2
Source: Midwest Research Institute
a/ Aluminum packaging and aluminum in appliances.
b/ Includes aluminum not recovered from central processing facilities.
-------
TABLE 7
SUMMARY OF PAPER PROCESSING/RECOVERY FOR
. MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTES, 1972 TO 1990
(In
Category
Total solid waste generated
Paper available^/
% paper of total waste
Total waste processed (central
facilities)
Paper content
Processed for fiber recovery
Paper recovered at 0.50 yield
Paper recovered as energy
Paper not recovered
Total waste not centrally
processed
Paper content
Paper recovered
Resource not recovered -
paper-
Total resource recovery -
paper fiber
Total resource recovery -
energy
Total paper recovery-
Percent recovery of total
paper
1,000 tons and percent)
1972 1975
130,000 140,000
41,550 42,100
32.0 30.1
-
Neg. 2,100
0 650
0 Neg.
0 0
0 650
0 0
130,000 137,900
41,500 41,450
50 300
41,500 41,150
50 300
Neg. 650
50 950
0.1 2.2
1980
160,000
50,550
31.6
6,600
2,100
100
50
2,000
50
153,400
48,450
600
47,900
650
2,000 -
\
2,650
5.2
1985
180,000
57,300
31.8
24,000
7,650
400
200
7,250
200
156,000
49,650
1,000
48,850
1,200
7,250
8,450
14.7
1990
200,000
67,150
33.6
48,600
16,350
1,000
500
15,350
500
151,400
50,800
2,000
49,300
2,500
15,350
17,850
26.6.
Source: Midwest Kesearc!'. Institute
a/ Includes only waste paper reaching waste collection, processing or disposal facilities.
b_/ Includes oaper not recovered from central processing facilities.
-------
The grand totals for resource recovery are then given in Table 3,
which are simply the values in the previous two tables added together. It
shows that total resource recovery from municipal waste in 1990 is forecast
to be 437 x 10^ Btu of energy; 3.1 million tons of ferrous metal; 0.5
million tons of aluminum; and 0.85 million tons of glass. In addition,
there will be 2.5 million tons of paper recovered directly from municipal
waste systems.
Tables 4 through 6 give the composite recovery values for each
of the inorganic materials--ferrous metals, aluminum and glass. These
data were also partly given in Tables 1 through 3. Table 7 summarizes paper
recovery.
The values given in each table are presented in summary form only.
The data on which these values were developed are related to the recovery
potential of centralized waste processing facilities and the demand/recover-
ability/marketability characteristics of each material as developed in de-
tail in the succeeding chapters.
16
-------
CHAPTER III
RESOURCE RECOVERY FROM MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE
.FORECASTING RESOURCE RECOVERY FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTES
This chapter explores the fundamental economic considerations
involved in analyzing the relative desirability of resource recovery;
identifies the quantity and location of economically recoverable wastes;
estimates the quantity of wastes that will actually be processed for
recovery; and translates these results into the specific resources recovered.
The sanitary landfill is presently, in most parts of the United
States, the lowest cost environmentally acceptable means of disposal for
mixed municipal solid wastes. In areas where suitable landfill sites are
either unavailable or prohibitive in cost, incineration is the most common
alternative.
However, in locations where incineration offers an economical
or necessary alternative to landfill, some form of resource recovery is
almost sure to prove superior to both. Recovery of the organic fraction
of the mixed solid waste stream for use as a supplemental fuel for utility
boilers offers distinct economic advantages over conventional incineration
for disp9sal.
In the 18-year period from 1972 to 1990, most municipalities
will have to find new places to dispose of their wastes because existing
dumps will be closed, landfills will become full and existing incinerators
will become inadequate or require major renovation. Thus, disposal choices
will be forced upon nearly every governmental unit in this period. Will the
choice be resource recovery or conventional disposal?
MRI's analysis indicates that in the long term, economics is the
key factor which will determine whether disposal or recovery will be pursued.
The most important element of cost in solid waste disposal by landfill is the
cost of land acquisition, and the annual charges associated with the capital
tied up in land. For resource recovery systems utilizing the combustible
portion of the wastes as a coal or petroleum supplementing fuel source, the
most important economic factor is the value of the recovered fuel.
Thus, when the sanitary landfill is compared with an energy recovery
system, low land prices favor the .sanitary landfill, while high energy values
favor the fuel recovery concept.
17
-------
Certainly the direction, if not the magnitude, of land prict~
and energy .values in all parts of the United States is clearly up; both of
these established trends favor resource recovery, with the final economics
depending on local price levels and growth rates in these -two i:ems.
In this study, the cost of disposal by sanitary landfill has been
related to different land purchase prices. Similarly, the net costs (or
net income) of disposal associated with an energy recovery system have been
related to different recovered energy values. Combining these two relation-
ships establishes a "break-even" point between the two concepts, based on
"locally prevailing land costs and energy values. The "break-even" land
price can be calculated as a function of energy values, or the "break-even"
energy values as a function of land costs.
Energy values and farm real estate prices were compiled on a state-
by-state basis, and projections were made at 5-year intervals through 1990
for each state. (Note that farm land values represent an absolute minimum
coot for purchased property since most landfills would be close enough to
metropolitan areas where land values would normally be higher than farm land
values.) The estimated values were then inserted in the break-even equations
to establish the most feasible disposal alternative at each point in time.
Following this procedure, the approximate year in which resource recovery
would become economically feasible in each state (if at all) was determined.
Then, the major metropolitan areas within the various states—those suffi-
ciently large to generate the required quantities of mixed solid wastes to
support a full-scale resource recovery operation—were delineated, and esti-
mates were made of the number of resource recovery plants in each state and
the quantities of the different resources to be recovered.
The following sections in Chapter II describe the analysis procedures
in some detail, and present the resulting estimates of the potential for resource
recovery in the United States through 1990.
BASIC RESOURCE RECOVERY ECONOMICS
The Economics of Sanitary Landfill for Disposal
KRI estimates that the variable costs (i.e., out of pocket costs)
associated with disposal by sanitary landfill average about $2.35 per ton
for a 1,000 ton per day (300,000 ton per year) operation; the balance of
disposal cost is directly attributable to the investment in land, and amounts
18
-------
to approximately" 6 percent of the total capital tied up in land. This
assumes that, on termination of the landfill project, the land value will
be at least equal to its original cost, and that only interest and carry-
ing costs are charged against the land account.*
Figure 1 shows the relationship between net solid waste disposal
costs and the cost per acre for land disposal sites. This relationship
has been developed from the cost data presented in Table 8 and can be ex-
pressed mathematically as follows:
CSLF = 2.35 + 0.96 L
where CSLF is the cost per ton of disposal via sanitary landfill and L
is the cost of the landfill site, in thousands of dollars per acre. The
assumptions are made that approximately twice as much land will be acquired
as will actually be devoted to landfill, and that the landfill site will
accommodate some 5,000 tons of mixed refuse per acre over a 20-year period.
The $2.35, as stated before, represents all costs exclusive of the carrying
charges on the land. The second factor is the equation--0.96 L--which is simply
the number of acres required to^handle 300,000 tons per year of waste for
20 years (2,400), times a multiplier (2) to reflect total acquisition costs
in excess of raw farm land prices times a 6 percent carrying charge times
the base land cost (L) in dollars per acre, divided by the annual quantity
of wastes to be disposed (300,000 tons): 2,400 x 2.0 L x 0.06/300,000 =
0.00096L (where L is in dollars/acre) or 0.96L (with L in $l,000/acre).
Most communities in the U.S. will require additional disposal sites
in the 1972 to 1990 period as old landfills are closed out, incinerators
become obsolete and as metropolitan areas expand in size.
The Economics of Resource Recovery
Since the sanitary landfill is generally the lowest cost (in
dollars) solid waste disposal method, alternatives are normally sought only
when suitable landfill sites are prohibitively expensive or unavailable. In
such a situation, incineration for disposal has been the usual choice for
disposal.
Municipalities seldom account for capital tied up in land in the "tra-
ditional" business economics approach. Capital expenditures are
usually handled separately, accounted for separately, and the cost of
owning capital assets is seldom charged against the total cost of
operation of a disposal site. Nonetheless,the costs are real and are
becoming recognized as such in local governments.
19
-------
c
o
1/1
o
(J
o
Q
8.00
7.00 -
6.00 -
5.00 -
4.00 -
3.00 -
2.00 -
1.00 -
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
LAND COST FOR DISPOSAL SITES ($/Acfe)
Figure 1 - Relationship Between Net Solid Waste
Disposal Costs and Land Cost
20
-------
TABLE 8
COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS OF SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL BY
Fixed Investment
Recoverable
Land ,
Working Capital
Total
Total Capital
Requirement
Fixed Costs
Capital Charges
Land at 6%/annum
Other Charges
Total
Total Annual Cost
LANDFILL AND RECOVERY AS ENERGY
00 ton/day, 300,000 ton/year
operation,
Energy (Fuel)
Recovery
($)
ments
'estment 1,315,000
lent 9,300,000
restment
450,000
:al 300,000
750,000
11,365,000
: Operation
:ing Costs 1,200,000
180,000
i
mum 27,000
: 1,203,000
1,230,000
ist 2,610,000
ired Resources
. (20,000
1.00) 240,000
(2.7 x
: SO.50/106) 1.350,000
Value 1,590,000
System
($/Ton)
4.00
0.60
0.09
4.01
4.10
8.70
0.80
4.50
5.30
20-year life
Sanitary
(Land Cost =
($)
200,000
950.000
4,800,000
125,000
4,925,000
6,075,000
505,000
40,000
288,000
160,000
448,000
993,000
0
Landfill
$l,000/acre)
=($/Ton)
1.68
0.13
0.96
0.53
1.49
3.30
0
Net Operating Cost
1,020,000
3.40
993,000
3.30
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
21
-------
However, if in a given area incineration is an acceptable alterna-
tive to the sanitary landfill, additional economics can usually be achieved
by practicing some form of resource recovery. Probably the mosf- logical
approach in these cases is to recover the heat generated by burning the
solid wastes, in conjunction with the recovery of certain inorganics which
will not burn and should be removed prior to combustion anyway.
Today, the most viable resource recovery technique for mixed
municipal waste appears to be some combination of energy j:nd materials
recovery. At present, resource recovery1-systems will likely experience
a net operating cost; its "profits" will be derived by a reduced operating
cost over the alternate disposal option such as incineration or landfill.
(In the future, resource values could rise enough so an actual profit is
made.)
The total cost of operating a 1,000 ton per day system designed
to recover the energy in the organics by combustion of mixed solid wastes
is estimated at $8.70 per ton, of which direct operating costs account
for $4.00 and the balance consists of fixed costs and capital-related
charges (Table 8). Ferrous metals are removable via magnetic separation,
reducing the net disposal cost to $7.90 per ton at a value of $12.00 per ton
for ferrous scrap. The value of the energy or organic materials such as
paper recovered, then, will be the primary determinant of the ultimate net
solid waste disposal cost.
The simplest and lowest net cost resource recovery technique
today is converting mixed waste to a fuel. A 1,000 ton per day, 300,000
ton per year operation will be able to produce some 2.7 x 10" gtu of
energy (at 4,500 Btu per pound of raw refuse) in the form of a fuel suit-
able for use by utility plants in electric power generation. The value
of this solid waste derived fuel will depend on the availability and cost
of conventional fossil fuels (especially coal) in the local area. To be
conservative and to take account of risk and capital investment required
by the user, this value should be expected to be somewhat less than the
cost of conventional fossil fuels, averaging perhaps 20 percent less;
in some areas, it coul^ be worth more, but some discount from the fossil
fuel equivalent is to be expected.
Figure 2 shows the relationship between net disposal costs via
energy (fuel) and ferrous metals recovery, and the value of the fuel thus
recovered.
This relationship, developed from the costs shown in Table 1,
can be expressed as
CER = 7.90 - 9 E
22
-------
8.00
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
VALUE OF RECOVERED ENERGY ($/ 106BTU)
Figure 2 - Net Waste Disposal Cost Vs. Value of Energy
23
-------
where i;|.-|< i .•:; i hi/ iH-f. ilisposi.il cost per Lou ol mixed waste processed lor
use as hie I , .'niil !•'. is the value of t.lu: energy thus recovered, expressed •
in clolLir;: per million Hl:u.-v 'Hit' $7.90 is the net disposal cost per ton
exc 1ml i MI>, enen.',v credits (Table I); the 9 K represents energy credits on
tin- recovery "i 9 million Htu/ton of waste processed, at E dollars per
mi I I i on !H u . ^
Figure /. shows that the net disposal costs approach zero at a fuel
value ol" about: £0.90 per million 15tn. The actual fuel costs per utilities
Lri some parts «f i:he USA are alreatly Ln excess of $0.50 per million Btu.
Thus, the .yiahi ii.ty of euergy recovery seems to he firm when alternative
tli.sposa' costs are considered.
The Economics o!:' Disposal Versus Resource Recovery
The. comparative costs associated with solid waste disposal by
sanitary Landfill and in an energy recovery system are summarized in Table 8-.
Since total 'actual disposal costs via sanitary landfill depend
mainly on the cost of land till sites and the chief variable affecting net
operating; costs in a resource recovery system is the value of the recovered
energy, these, two important variables--land cost and energy value — can be
equated to describe a break-even situation. Other associated costs are rela-
tive and do not affect a decision to dispose or re.cover waste to the extent
these two factors do. Land cost and energy value have been equated for a '-
break-even situation in Figure 3, which indicates equivalent costs for any
combination ..of the two variables. For example, the net solid waste disposal
cost via resource (fuel) recovery with the recovered energy valued at $0.40/
10" Btu, is .equivalent to the cost, of .disposal by sanitary landfill when'land
costs $2,000 per acre..
The appropriate equations for relating land costs and energy values
at the break-even point are as follows:
L - 5.78 - 9.38 E
E = 0.62 - 0.11 L
* We do not preclude the recovery of other resources besides energy from
the organic fraction of waste. In some situations the recovery of
paper may be viable,for example. However, there is no other recovery
option today that is so broadly applicable and also recovers value
from the entire organic fraction of waste. Thus, energy represents
maximum recovery of organics and minimum residue to be disposed of.
24
-------
0.70
0.60
? 0.50
o
2
LU
O
LU
0.40
cm
LU
> 0.30
U
0.20
0.10
RESOURCE RECOVERY
MORE ECONOMICAL
DISPOSAL BY
SANITARY LANDFILL
MORE ECONOMICAL
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
LAND COST FOR DISPOSAL SITES ($/ACRE)
5000
Figure 3 - Equivalence Between Land Cost and Energy Value
25
-------
where, as betore, L is the land cost for a disposal site ($1, )00 per acre)
and E is the value of energy recovered as fuel (dollars/10" Btu).
Figure 3 provides a quick reference for determining the most
economical alternative for handling solid wastes in a given area. If
energy is valued at over $0.60/10" Btu, for example, a resource recovery
operation is probably justified regardless of land costs. And where land
costs are relatively high—say in the $3,000 per acre ai.d over category--
resource recovery should probably be considered even when conventional fuels
are available locally at $0.30/106 Btu or less.
How Land Values for Disposal Sites Were Determined
Farm real estate values in the United States (in 1973) averaged
$247 per acre, ranging from less than $100 per acre in South Dakota, Mon-
tana, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming and New Mexico, to more than $1,000 per
acre in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.
For the U;S. as a whole, agricultural land values have risen an
average of 6.9 percent annually over the past decade, and are expected to
continue at a comparable rate for some time. :Land value growth rates over
the past 10 years have ranged from less than 5 percent annually (in California
and South Dakota) to nearly 13 percent annually (in Georgia and Nevada),
with the most rapidly rising land prices experienced in the northeastern
parts of the United States.
}
Future land costs are not easily predictable, and recent increases
have far exceeded' the historical growth in farmland prices. The rapid increases
in land values can be attributed both to financial speculation and to higher
prices for farm commodities. For the purposes of this analysis, however, the
growth rates established over the past 10 years have been used as the basis
for projections from 1973 through 1990.
Assuming the historical rates to continue, farmland will cost
more than $10,000 per acre in New Jersey by 1990, while it will still be
available for under $200 per acre in New Mexico and Wyoming. Under the
same trends in value for the U.S., farmland values will grow from their
present $247 per acre to $394 in 1980; to $550 in 1985; and to $768 per
acre in 1990. Figure 4 shows the expected increases in the national
averages.
The increase in land costs will result in much higher costs for
acquiring sanitary landfill sites, and subsequently in much higher costs
of solid waste disposal by this means. Since land costs are highest in
the most densely populated areas where solid waste generation is also
highest, this gives a double-barreled effect toward favoring resource
recovery.
26
-------
800
700
3 600
LU
LU
o
500
400
300
200
100
1970
1
1975
1980
YEAR
1985
1990
Figure 4 - Trend in Average Farm Real Estate Value, 1970-1990
27
-------
In general, an.,ove.rall.-prlce level for land can be estimated
based on two types of locational factors:
1. Population density, and
2. Location of a land site with renpect to population centers.
Figure 5 shows 1973 farm real estate values (in dollars per acre)
plotted against population density on a state-average basis; Table 9 sum-
marizes the data from which Figure 5 is plotted. A state with a population
density of 100 persons per square mile, for example, would be expected to
have farm real estate values falling in the $350 to $400 per acre range,
while a state having a population density of 50 persons per square mile
would average about $100 per acre less for agricultural land; and doubling
the population density (to 200 people per square mile) would mean that
farmland values would be around $550 per acre.
Said in another way, where people locate tends to bring greater
value to nearby farmland. On a statewide average basis, the value of land
used for agricultural purposes can be estimated as follows:
0.53
380
where V is the average land value in dollars per acre and D is the state's
population density in people per square mile.
In many areas where resource recovery appears uneconomical on a
statewide average basis, there may be a number of locations within the
state that offer attractive possibilities. To identify specific locations
for resource recovery would require that resource values and land values
be closely examined for the particular cities under consideration.
Realistic estimates of land value are hard to establish. Land
prices fluctuate widely, year to year, area to area, and even season to
season. Location determines land use, and land use determines land value.
The other locational factor is somewhat more specific, relating
> to its distance
chip is shown in Figure 6.
land value to its distance from a major population center. This relation-
* These data were based on actual'market values of land in 1972 in the
Kansas City metropolitan area.'
" 28
-------
2000
ho
VO
~ 1000
LLJ
cn.
500
200
- 100
50
10 100
POPULATION DENSITY (PEOPLE/SQ .Ml. )
1000
Figure 5 - Farm Real Estate Values.Vs. Population Density
-------
TABLE 9
FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES AND POPULATION DENSITIES BY STATES (1973)
Segion and State
New England
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Middle Atlantic
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
South Atlantic
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
West North Central
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Land
Cost
(S/Acre)^
235
368
328
799
1,036
1,316
390
1,599
518
663
888
404
208
483
375
340
423
275
482
289
111
97
195
203
a/ Doane ' s Agricultural Report,
Population
Density
(People/Sq. Mi.).
33
86
50
748
928
655
390
997
265
291
421
122
72
107
88
82
135
50
51
69
9
9
20
28
Vol. 36, No. 32-6
Land
Cost
($/Acre)l/
Region and State
East South Central
Kentucky 333
Tennessee 363
Alabama 274
Mississippi 269
West South Central
Arkansas 321
Louisiana 411
Oklahoma 225
Texas 194
East North Central
- Ohio
" Indiana
Illinois.;
Michigan
Wisconsin
Mountain
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Colorado
Pacific
Washington
Oregon
California
507
512
590
433
336
76
234
54
53
93
124
87
138
262
204
496
Populat ion
Density
(People/Sq. Mi._)_]>/
83
98
69
47
38
84
39
45
267
148
205
162
84
5
.9
4
" 9
17
14
5
22
54
23
136
b/ MRI calculation's based on 1970 Census Data.
-------
500.0
200.0
100.0 —
x 50.0 -
Q
z
UJ
u
Q
Z
20.0 ~
10.0
NOTE: 1.0 = Prevailing agricultural farm land value
II I I
DISTANCE FROM POPULATION CENTER (MILES)
Figure 6 - Empirical Index of Land Price Vs.
Distance from Population Center
31
-------
Here., it .can be seen..that ;l-and costs decrease as distance from
a population center increases. At a 50-mile distance, land prices reflect
their value for primarily agricultural use. Closer, they begin to include
other, higher value uses, or at least the speculative possibility of future
high-value use. Figure 6 relates land values at various distances between
rural and urban (or suburban) land uses to the average value of raw farmland.
As shown in Figure 6, land that is 25 miles from the population
center will be priced about 4.5 times as high as raw farmland (land price
index approximately or equal to 4.5). Moving into within 10 .miles raises
the land price index to nearly 20.
This points out the problem a municipality faces in seeking a suit-
able landfill site. If farm real estate is valued at $300 per acre, it may
still cost the city from $2,000 to $6,000 per acre for a landfill site
within 10 to 20 miles, and it is unlikely that anything suitable could be
found within 30 miles for less than $1,000 per acre.,
The cost of operating a remote landfill facility is generally
higher than for a close-in site, even considering the lower cost land. The
added expense of maintaining a transfer station and transporting wastes over,
say, a 100-mile distance, usually will offset any savings in land acquisition
costs.
As land values rise, pushing up the costs of disposal by landfill,
more and more areas will find resource recovery economically attractive,
with the degree of attractiveness depending on the net costs associated with
the particular resource recovery systems under consideration.
ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE SOLID WASTES
Energy Values and Land Costs
While increasing land costs will raise the total cost of solid
waste disposal by landfill, rising energy values will reduce the net cost of
solid waste disposal in energy recovery systems.
All three conventional fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas--
will become increasingly expensive, as shown in Figure 7, making the energy
recoverable from solid wastes more valuable.
32
-------
co
•o
o
>
I—
1/1
o
(J
O
LU
z
LU
i
LU
1.00
0.90 -
0.80 -
0.70 -
0.60 -
0.50 -
0.40 -
0.30 -
0.20 -
0.10 -
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
Figure 7 - Average Energy Cost of Fossil Fuels, 1960-1990
Source: Midwest Research Institute based on published fuel values.
33
-------
Natural gas costs are expected to Increase at a rate of 6 percent
annually through 1990; fuel oil, at 5 percent annually; and coal at 3.5
percent annual rate. This will cause many electric utilities to shift in
favor of coal over fuel oil and natural gas, which will also encourage the
utilization of solid waste derived fuel. Nuclear energy will be used to a
greater extent in many areas, but is unlikely to displace existing fuel
sources by 1990.
The average as-burned cost of conventional fuels used by steam^-
electric generating plants in the United States presently ranges from about
$0.20/106 Btu where low cost coal is locally available, to $0.50/106 Btu or
more in some of the northern states which rely heavily on fuels brought in
from distant sources. New plants using Wyoming coal will experience a cost
of about $0.50/106 Btu. By 1990, the cheapest conventional fuel (usually
coal) will cost up to $1.00/10** Btu, and will seldom be available for less
than $0.50/10 Btu. Rising energy costs, coupled with increasing land costs
(for disposal sites), will push many states into the "Resource Recovery More
Economical" range in the next few years (Figure 3).
The present and projected land costs and energy values for the
various states are summarized in Table 10, in which the energy value shown
represents 80 percent of the estimated cost of conventional fossil fuels.
These data are plotted in Figures 8 through 16 to show their effects in
each state.
Where Resource Recovery Will Be Economically Feasible
When land costs and energy .values are considered together for a
particular location, the economics of waste disposal versus resource re-
covery can be established. The results of such an analysis on a state-by-
state level, under two different assumptions, are given (Figures 17 and 18).
In one case (Figure 17), it was assumed that the energy recovered
from solid wastes has a value equal to the cost of conventional fossil
fuels, while in the other case (Figure 18), the recovered energy value is
calculated at 20 percent less than other locally available fuels. The
shaded areas in each figure indicate the years by which resource recovery
will become economically feasible in the different states under these as-
sumptions, based on the relationships between projected land and energy
costs.
. It., is. believed that the more conservative approach (Figure 18,
where the recovered energy value equals 80 percent of the prevailing fuel
cost) is the most realistic.
34
-------
TABLE 10
ESTIMATED AVERAGE FARM LAND COSTS AND AVERAGE ENERGY VALUES BY STATE (1973-1990)
New England
Maine
New Ham
Vermont
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
West Vi
North C
South C
Georgia
Florida
(In
dollars per
1973
Land
Cost
I State ($/Acre)
id
235
•shire 368
328
isetts 799
iland 1,036
.cut 1,316
.antic
: 390
;ey 1,599
rania 518
intic
j 663
1 888
i 404
rginia 208
irolina 483
irolina 375
340
423
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
30.2
32.2
40.3
32.6
32.9
32.2
36.0
35.4
27.4
35.4
33.9
30.9
21.2
31.1
31.0
31.8
30.9
acre and
cents per million Btu)
1980
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
441
690
615
1,499
1,943
2,468
690
3,491
984
1,079
1,832
711
403
771
686
775
636
Energy
Value
(c/106 Btu)
42.4
42.2
51.3
44.2
45.5
43.1
48.6
47.7
35.2
46.4
43.3
39.3
27.0
39.6
41.5
41.0
43.. 5 .
1985
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
700
1,080
970
2,350
3,050
3,900
1,050
6 , 100
1,550
1,550
3,100
1,060
650
1,080
1,050
1,400.
850
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
55.8
51.8
61.8
55.2
57.8
53.8
57.7
56.6
41.6
54.2
52.2
47.4
32.6
47.8
50.4
49,5
48.4
1990
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
1,082
1,695
1,511
3,680
4,771
6,061
1,561
10,650
2,461
2,162
5,155
1,592
1,035
1,502
1,623
2,518
1,139
Energy
Value
(c/106 Btu)
69.1
61.4
72.4
66.2
70.1
64.5
66.8
65.4
48.0
61.9
61.0
55.4
38.1
55.8
59.3
58.0
53 . 3
-------
TABLE 10 (Continued)
OJ
o\
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
333
363
274
269
321
411
225
194
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
19.4
21.4
25.2
23.6
23.6
18.8
17.5
18.9
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
511
• 614
498
473
583
682
371
320
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
24.6
27.6
32.2
35.4
35.5
28.2
26.3
28.4
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
700
900
760
710
900
980
530
455
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
29.7
33.2
38.8
43.1
49.5
39.4
36.8
39.7
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
941
1,301
1,167
1,060
1,368
1,405
757
653
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu
34.7
38.8
45.4
50.7
1 63.5
50.6
47.2
50.9
1973
Region and State
East South Central
-Kentucky
, Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
West South Central
Arkansas
. Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
East North Central
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
. Wisconsin
West North Central
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
333
363
274
269
321
411
225
194
507
512
590
433
336
275
482
289
111
97
195
203
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
19.4
21.4
25.2
23.6
23.6
18.8
17.5
18.9
25.4
24.5
26.8
32.8
34.1
30.3
27.5
24.0
15.7
29.6
27.0
22.2
1980
1985
1990
507
512
590
433
336
275
482
289
111
97
195
203
25.4
24.5
26.8
32.8
34.1
30.3
27.5
24.0
15.7
29.6
27.0
22.2
798
790
864
682
587
403
764
512
166
132
309
301
32.3
•31.2
34.8
41.8
44.0
40.6
37.8
31.6
19.9
40.3
38.6
32.9
1,100
1,070
1,130
950
870
530
1,050
780
220
165
430
400
39.0
37.6
41.7
50.3
53.1
51.1
46.1
37.7
24.0
48.6
50.2
41.4
1,527
1,470
1,490
1,304
1,303
694
1,475
1,157
294
205
597
529
45.5
43.9
48.6
58.9
62.2
61.6
54.3
43.8
28.2
5V. 7
61.6
50.0
-------
TABLE 10 (Concluded)
1973
1980
1985
1990
Region and State
Mountain
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Colorado
Pacific
Washington
Oregon
California
Sources: Doane's
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
76
234
54
53
93
124
87
138
262
204
496
Agricultural
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
21.4
21.1
21.2
18.6
27.0
20.7
33.4
23.0
35.4
33.2
29.3
Report, Vo
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
124
376
86
87
171
213
203
212
394
390
610
Energy
Value
(c/106 Btu)
27.8
27.8
27.0
26.4
39.8
28.5
47.0
31.0
49.8
49.9
43.6
36, -No. 32-6, August 10,
1 in Steam-Electric Plant
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
175
530
120
122
260
310
340
275
530
620
710
1973.
Factors
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
33.5
32.6
32.6
27.7
43.9
32 . 6
52.2
37.4
65.5
69.7
60.3
(Land cost fo
, National Co
Land
Cost
($/Acre)
248
739
165
176
409
459
684
390
706
984
820
Energy
Value
(C/106 Btu)
39.2
42.9
38.1
28.9
48.0
36.6
57.4
43.8
. 81.2
89.4
77.0
973.) Based
ant Factors. National Coal Association,
1973. Midwest Research Institute (1980, 1985, 1990).
-------
oo
O
o
•
v
E>
0)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
/
Me.
T7
N.H.
X
9 Mass.
.«
X1
, A-
Ct. ^-
X
'^x
Key: o 1975
o 1980
A 1985
® 1990
*">»
J I
0 1000 2000 3000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
4000
Figure 8 - Energy Values Vs. Land Cost in the
New England States, 1972-1990
5000
0.70
^ 0.60
s
J5 0.50
o
S 0.40
v
— 0 30
o U'JU
oJ 0.20
0)
0.10 -
0
xeN.Y.
N.J.
Key: o 1975
a 1980
A 1985
9 1990
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
Figure 9 - Energy Values.Vs. Land Cost in the
Middle Atlantic States, 1972-1990
5000
38
-------
0.70
0.60
0.50
-------
0.70
^ 0.60
D
J5 0.50
o
^ 0.40
v
~5 0.30
? 0.20
o>
c
uu
0.10
0
Wise.
/,«Mich.
1000 2000 3000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
4000
5000
Figure 11 - Energy Value Vs. Land Cost in the 0
East North Central States, 1972-1990
0.70
0.60
4° °-50
o
> 0.40
-s 0.30
>
0)
LU
0.20
0.10
0
1000 2000 3000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
4000
5000
Figure 12 - Energy Value Vs. Land Cost in the
East South Central States, 1972-1990
40
-------
S3
O
0)
_D
O
X
O)
V
C
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30.
0.20
0.10
0
Okla./^/ >
- :/// /
'A/ /
1000 2000- 3000 4000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
5000
Figure 13 - Energy Values Vs. Land Cost: in the
West South Central States, 1972-1990
0.70
^ 0.60
D
^° 0.50
o
<> 0.40
0)
-5 0.30
>
? 0.20
o>
C '
LU
0.10
0
D Key: 01975
' '
a 1980
A 1985
• ,1.990
1000 2000 3000 4000
Land Cost ($/Acre) '
5000
Figure 14 - Energy Values Vs. Land Cost in the
West North Central States, 1972-1990
41
-------
0.70
0.60
Nev.
0.50
D
I—
CO
/
0.40
/!/Mon*./
I f ^ y
Utah
_ /
o
x
UJ
0.30
X
0.20
fl//
lit °/
OP Q O
ON.M.
k
0.10
0
Key: o 1975
a 1980
A 1985
• 1990
I I
I I
OVe'y
I -I
0
200
. 400 600 800
Land Cost ($/Acre)
1000 1200
Figure 15 - Energy Values Vs. Land Cost in the
Mountain States, 1972-1990
42
-------
0.90
CO
•o
o
^
V
1000
2000 3000
Land Cost ($/Acre)
4000
5000
Figure 16 - Energy Values Vs. Land Cost in the
Pacific States, 1972-1990
43
-------
1000 TPD Resource Recovery System
Economically Feasible by
1975
1980
1985
1990
Assuming Recovered Energy Value
Equals Average Fuel Cost
Figure 17 - States Where Resource Recovery Becomes Economically Feasible, 1975-1990
(Energy Value of Waste at 100 Percent of Fossil Fuel)
-------
1000 TPD Resource Recovery System
Economically Feasible by
11975
1980
1985
1990
Assuming Recovered Energy Value
Equals 80 Percent of Average Fuel Cost
Figure 18 - States Where Resource Recovery Becomes Economically Feasible, 1975-1990
(Energy Value of Waste at 80 Percent of Fossil Fuel)
-------
Here, it can be seen that one state (New Jersey) can justify resource re-
covery on purely economic grounds by 1975; resource recovery will become
feasible in three more states (Rhode Island, Connecticut and Maryland) by
1980; an additional eight states will find the concept attractive by 1985;
and 13 more states by 1990. Even in Washington and Oregon where hydro-
power is used extensively, increases in energy production will require the
development of additional conventional and nuclear energy plants, with fos-
sil fuels (chiefly coal) still expected to dominate.
1 Thus, by 1990, 25 states will be justified in supporting resource
recovery systems on their own merits. This does not take into account the
states where specific population centers may support resource recovery sys-
tems even though the statewide averages calculated here are too low to
"qualify" the state itself. Thus, these calculations should be viewed as
very conservative.
QUANTITY OF SOLID WASTES PROCESSED FOR RESOURCE RECOVERY
Solid' Wastes Processed for Resource Recovery
The total quantity of solid wastes actually processed for resource
recovery depends on a number of factors in addition to those previously dis-
cussed. Economic feasibility by itself does not, of course, mean that a
project will be undertaken. New systems will be installed only when the
necessity arises, and existing solid waste management plans and operations
may carry many years beyond the theoretically indicated point of economic
feasibility. Existing landfill sites may, for example, be entirely ade-
quate for another 10 years or more before new disposal-planning decisions
need to be made. In addition, local political and social attitudes may lead
to some areas rejecting resource recovery while others will work out dif-
ficult interjurisdictional problems.
The total amount of mixed municipal solid waste generated is sub-
ject to some uncertainty. A detailed summary of solid waste generation by
quantity and composition is given for the 1971 to 1990 period (Table 11).
The basis of these solid waste generation values is a calculated forecast
tonnage based on two key sources: EPA's estimate of mixed municipal waste
generation and composition for the year 1971; and updating of this data by
MRI using forecasts developed in the course of this study and other estimates.
The approach was to develop independently a material-by-material
(or component-by-component) forecast of waste generation on the basis of de-
tailed analysis in other chapters of this report. For those components of
solid waste not included in this study, we made estimates of future use.
46
-------
TABLE 11
MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION BY MATERIAL CATEGORY, 1971 TO 1990
1971
Waste Component
Paper
Glass - containers
other
Total Glass
Ferrous - cans and small items
bulky appliances
other
Total Ferrous
Nonferrous - packaging Al
other Al
Nonferrous - other
Total Nonferrous
Plastics
Rubber/Leather
Textiles
Wood
Sub Total - Manufactured
Products
Food Wastes
Yard Wastes
Misc. Inorganics
Total Solid Haste
Total Organics - as generated
Total Inorganics
Nominal Value
Value at 27, compound growth
Value at 37= compound growth
Value at 3.57, compound growth
Tons
39.
11.
1.
12.
8.
1.
0.
10.
0.
0.
0.
1.
4.
3.
1.
4.
77.
22.
24.
I.
125.
99.
25.
125
-
-
•
1
1
0
1
9
7
1
7
6
2
4
2
2
3
,8
6
0
0
1
9
0
1-
9
Percent
31.3
8.9
0.8
9.7
7. 1
1.3
0. 1
8.5
0.5
0.2
0.3
1.0
3.4
2.6
1.4
3.7
61.6
17.6
19.3
1.5
100.0
79.3
20.7
(In Million
1972
Tons
41.5
12.2
1.0
13.2
9.3
1.7
0. 1
11. 1
0.7
0.2
0.4
1.3
4.5
3.4
1.9
4.7
81.6
22.2
24.6
2.0
130.4
102.8
27.6
130
128
129
129
Percent
31
9
0
10
7
1
0
8
0
0
0
1
3
2
1
3
62
17
18
1
100
73
21
.8
.3
.8
.1
.1
.3
. 1
.5
.5
.2
.3
.0
.5
.6
.5
.6
.6
.0
.9
.5
.0
.9
. 1
Tons and Percent)
1975
Tons
42.1
13.4
l.l
14.5
9.9
1.7
0.1
11.7
1.0
0.2
0.4
1.6
5.7
3.7
2.1
5. 1
86.5
23.0
26.3
2. 1
137.9
108.0
29.9
140
135
141 '
143
Perce
30.
9.
0.
10.
7.
1.
0.
8.
0.
0.
0.
1.
4.
2.
1.
3.
62.
16.
19.
1.
100.
78.
21.
nt
6
7
8
5
2
2
I
5
7
1
3
I
1
7
5
7
7
7
,1
5
0
3
,7
1980
Tons
50.6
15. 1
1.3
16.4
11. 1
1.9
0.1
13. 1
1.3
0.2
0.5
2.0
8.4
4.3
2.4
5.7
102.9
24.5
29.3
2.5
159.2
125.2
34.0
160
149
163
170
Percent
31.8
9.5
0.8
10.3
7.0
1.2
0. 1
8.3
0.8
0. 1
0.3
1.2
5.3
2.7
1.5
3.6
64. 7
15.4
18.4
1.6
100.1
78.6
21.5
Ton;
57
15
I
16
12
2
0
15
1
0
0
2
11
5
2
6
117
26
32
• 2
178
141
37
180
165
189
202
1985
.3
. 1
.5
.6
.5
.5
.2
.2
.6
.3
.6
.5
.0
.0
.9
.5
.0
.2
.7
.9
.8
.6
.2
Percent
32.0
8.5
0.8
9.3
7.0
1.4
0. 1
8.5
0.9
0.2
0.3
1.4
6.2
2.8
1.6
3.6
65.4
14.7
18.3
1.6
100.0
79.2
20.8
1990
Tons
67.2
15.2
1. 7
16.9
13.5
2. 7
0.2
16.4
2.0
0.3
0.7
3.0
13.2
5.8
3.5
7.4
133.4
27.7
36.4
3.3
200.8
161.2
• 39.6
200
182
219
~
PC- re., n:
33.5
7.6
0.6
8.4
6. 7
1.4
0. 1
8.2
1.0
0.2
0.3
1.5
6.6
2.9
1.7
3.7
66.5
13.8
18.1
1.6
100.0
80.3
19.7
Sources: "Resource Recovery and Source Reduction," Second Report to Congress, I'. =. Environment:-] Protection Agency, 1974 p.3 •::.
Midwest Research Institute, 1972 to 1990. See Table 11 (Continued) for the basis o£ the calculations.
v? S'•-'.--> 1971 Data.
-------
TABLE 11 (Continued)
BASIS FOR CALCULATION OF WASTE GENERATION/COMPOSITION. 1972 to 1990
The calculation basis or data source for extending waste compo-
sition and generation was derived from each waste component as follows.
Paper: The basis was the calculated paper available in solid
waste before recovery within the solid waste management system, which is
the estimated actual paper discarded into solid waste systems each year
(data from Table 119).
Glass: The basis was the calculated net discard for glass con-
tainers from Table 35. For noncontainer glass, we used the EPA base data
for 1971 of 1.0 million tons and estimated 1.0 million tons for 1972; 1.1
for 1975; 1.3 for 1980; 1.5 for 1985; and 1.7 million tons for 1990.
Ferrous Metal: The basis was the calculated net discard for
metal cans plus other ferrous metal objects in mixed waste, to which house-
hold appliance metal was added. The basis for the mixed ferrous metal is
the forecast net tonnage discard each year (Table 49). Household appliance
discard was based on MRI data in Table 56. A miscellaneous category for
furniture, etc., was derived from EPA estimates and carried at 0.1 million
tons, per year to 1985, then raised to 0.2 million tons.
Nonferrous Metals: The basis for packaging metal came from Table
63. To this was added 0.1 million tons per year for nonpackaging aluminum.
Also, we added 0.1 million tons for aluminum in appliances in 1972-1980;
then 0.3 million tons in 1985 and 1990. The other types of nonferrous
metals were based on EPA data for 1971, to which we added 0.1 million tons
in 1980, 1985, and 1990.
Plastics: The basis was the net waste discard for packaging
plastics plus other plastics in mixed municipal waste from Table 77. To
this we added 0.2 million tons for plastics in appliances and furniture,
based on the EPA data for 1971.
Rubber/Leather: The basis used was that rubber tires are 75 per-
cent of total rubber going into municipal waste. All discarded rubber tires
are shown in mixed municipal waste plus one-half of all other waste rubber
products go directly into municipal waste (e.g., footwear, mechanical goods).
Leather (e.g., shoes) is the balance of the tonnage in this category. We
used EPA data for 1971 as the base tonnage and extended it at 3 percent
growth rate to 1990.
48
-------
TABLE 11 (Concluded)
Textiles: The basis used was the EPA data for 1971, extended at
3.5 percent compound growth rate to 1990.
Wood: The basis used was the EPA data for 1971, extended at 2.5
percent compound growth rate to 1990.
Food Waste Generation: The calculation basis was related directly
to forecast population increase (percentage). No allowance was made for a
rise or decline in the percentage of food disposal by home garbage grinding,
home composting, the pattern of food consumption habits, etc. The data on
population were taken from Table 21 in direct ratio to the base year of
1971.
Yard Waste Generation: The basis used was the EPA data for 1971,
which was extended at an average growth rate of 2.2 percent per year, or
about twice the rate of population increase. No adjustment was made for:
new and total household formations; type and market share of dwelling units;
air pollution regulations on open burning; home composting; size and types
of yards subject to waste pickup compared to 1972. These latter factors
will influence yard waste generation rates but no data were available to
form a calculation basis.
Other Inorganics: The base year 1971 data are EPA's estimates
which we extended at an average growth rate of 3 percent per year to 1990.
This was our estimate of the overall increase in discard of unidentified
inorganics—dirt, stones, brick, ceramics, various small, items, etc.
49
-------
The basis for our waste generation forecasts are detailed in Table 11. The
actual mixed municipal waste generation will rise from 120 million tons in
1972, to 200 million tons in 1990, or a rate of increase of about 2.5 per-
cent per year. The range of quantities in 1990 would be 180 million tons
at 2 percent growth, to 240 million tons at 3.5 percent annual growth (Table
'11). , . . . ' ' "'•• ' ' " , ' . .... - , p
/^ In general, a metropolitan area population of more than 300,000
people is required to support a 1,000 ton per day resource recovery opera-
tion. To estimate the prevalence of resource recovery, the metropolitan
areas having populations in excess of 300,000, in the states where resource
recovery was believed to be economically feasible for a given year, were
tabulated and the appropriate number and size of the recovery systems were
estimated. It was assumed that plants would be installed initially in
capacities of 1,000 to 5,000 tons per day, and that increased solid waste
generation in the area could be accommodated by adding shifts or days to
the plant operating schedule.
A number of different possible situations were considered, to
estimate a realistic range of values. These variables included, for 1975,
1980, 1985, and 1990:
1. Three estimates of solid waste generation (low, median and
high), and
f •• '
*.'"•.
2. Three estimates of the percentage of solid wastes processed
for resource recovery (low, median and high). ,
Additionally, probabilities were assigned to each combination of
variables. A probability of 0.5 was arbitrarily assigned to the median esti-
mate in each case, and probabilities of 0.25 were given the high and low
estimates. The resulting 36 outcomes (nine for each of 4 years), and their
estimated probability of occurrence were tabulated, quartile ranges were
defined, and the median and "most likely" estimates were identified.*
The estimated total amount of solid wastes processed for resource
recovery is summarized in Table 12 for the 4 years in question, and these
estimates are plotted, along with the total amount of solid waste generated,
in Figure 19.
*/ This technique was used to show that there is a range of uncertainty
here — the quantity of solid waste actually generated is not precisely
known and the rate at which resource recovery systems will be installed
is highly uncertain.
50
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TABLE 12
RANGE OF VALUES FOR QUANTITY OF MIXED WASTES CENTRALLY PROCESSED
FOR RESOURCE RECOVERY (MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR)
(p = 0.25)
Low
Estimate
1975:135
1980:150
1985
1990
:165
:180
Quantity
Processed
for Recovery
(p = 0.25)
Low
Estimate
1975
1980
1985
1990
1.3
3.1
10.3
18.6
(p = 0.50) (p = 0
Median
Estimate
1975
1980
1985
: 2.0
: 6.1
:20.9
1990:40.5
High
Estimate
1975: 2.9
1980: 13.4
1985:39.9
1990: 73.5
.25)
(p = 0
Low
Estimate
1975
1980
1985
1990
: 1.3
: 3.4
: 11.8
22.3
Total
Solid Waste
Generated
(p = 0.50)
Median
Estimate
1975:140
1980:160
1985:180
1990:200
Quantity
Processed
for Recovery
.25)
(p = 0.50)
Median
Estimate
1975: 2.1
1980: 6.6
1985:24.0
1990:48.6
(p = 0.
High
Estimate
1975
1980
1985
3.0
14.6
45.9
1990:88.1
(p. = 0.
Low
Estimate
1975:
1980:
1985:
1990:
1.4
3.7
13.5
26.8
(p = 0.25)
High
Estimate
1975
1980
1985
1990
:143 .
:170
:200
:240
Quantity
Processed
for Recovery
25)
(p = 0.50) (p = 0.25)
Median
Es tima te
1975
1980
1985
1990
2.2
7.2
27.4
58.4
High
Estimate
1975: 3.1
1980: 16.0
1985: 52.3
1990:105.9
(p = 0.0625) (p = 0.125) (p = 0.0625)
(p = 0.125)
(p = 0.25) (p = 0.125)
(p = 0.0625) (p = 0.125) (p = 0.0625)
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
500
200
100
z
o
50
- 20
13
Q
LU
X
% 10
o
Totol Amount Generated
1975
1980
YEAR
Total Amount Processed
for Resource Recovery
1985
1990
Figure 19 - Solid Waste Generation and Resource Recovery Ranges,
1975-1990
52
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By 1990, the USA could be processing between 18.6 million tons of
solid waste in centralized resource recovery systems and 105.9 million tons.
This range bounds the calculated low and high estimates. The most likely
resource recovery profile, i.e., the one with a probability of 0.25 of
occurring, indicates that 48.6 million tons of solid waste will be processed
for recovery in 1990 in centralized resource recovery facilities.
Number of Resource Recovery Systems in Operation
The quantity of solid waste processed for resource recovery (as
given in the preceding section) will come principally from large municipal-
ities in certain geographic areas. Not all areas where resource recovery
is economically feasible will install systems, and not all systems that
are installed will be economically feasible. The estimated number of muni-
cipalities having resource recovery systems in operation at specified points
in time was estimated (Table 13). Three estimates are given for each year:
a minimum, maximum, and "most likely."
TABLE 13
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF METROPOLITAN AREAS ACTUALLY HAVING
RESOURCE RECOVERY FACILITIES UNDER THREE CONDITIONS, 1975 TO 1990
Year
'1975
1980
1985
1990
Minimum
Estimate
Period
3
3
11
8
Total
3
6
17
25
"Most Likely"
Estimate
Period
4
5
14
17
Total
4
9
23
40
Maximum
Estimate
Period Total
4
14
25
22
4
18
43
65
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
The "most likely" category incorporates the calculated base esti-
mate for total solid waste generation (Table 11); a recovered energy value
of 80 percent of prevailing local fuel costs; and the "most likely" esti-
mate for adoption of the resource recovery concept (Table 13). These are
the parameters that MRI believes represent the best estimate of what will
actually occur.
53
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The resulting "most likely" estimate shown in Table 13 indicates
that, by 1990, 40 metropolitan areas will have resource recovery systems
in operation. (Note: We refer to metropolitan areas at this j.oint as
opposed to the total number of systems in those areas.)
The total number of recovery plants expected to be operating in
these metropolitan areas were then estimated (Table 14). We estimate that
five plants will be built and in operation in 1975; another seven will be
installed during the 1975-1980 period; 20 between 1980 and 1985; and 28
the following 5 years. This gives a total of 60 resource recovery plants
in operation by 1990, processing 48.6 million tons of mixed municipal solid
wastes annually, for an average of 800,000 tons per year per plant or
2,670 tons per day per plant based on 300 days per year operation.
TABLE 14
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF RESOURCE RECOVERY PLANTS IN ACTUAL
OPERATION UNDER THREE CONDITIONS. 1975 TO 1990
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Year Period Total Period Total Period Total
1975 4 4 5 56 6
1980 4 8 7 12 15 21
1985 12 20 20 32 30 51
1990 15 35 28 60 40 91
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
The central processing plants to be actually built and on-stream
in or by a given year cannot be specifically identified, but they can be
expected to come principally from the metropolitan areas listed in Tables
15 and 16. It must be emphasized that resource recovery may be attractive
in large metropolitan areas located in all states, because of local condi-
tions related either to the availability and cost of landfill sites and/or
conventional fuels.
The MRI estimates of the maximum number of central waste proces-
sing plants that are possible to be installed in the period 1975 to 1990
is given for the "most likely" waste generation rates and the "economically
feasible" states and'SMSA's for resoufce--.recovery identified in Table 15.
^•^ • / ^ f }
This tabulation is a summary of the SMSAxcharacteristics detailed in Table 15.
54
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TABLE 15
SMSA'S OF'.300.OOP POPULATION OR GREATER IN STATES WHERE
Year
1980
1985
RESOURCE RECOVERY IS "ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE." 1975 TO 1990
State
New Jersey
Connecticut
Maryland
Rhode Island
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
New York
Georgia
Delaware
Washington
Oregon
California
SMSA
Jersey City
*Newark
Paterson-Cllfton-
Passaic
Trenton
*Bridgeport
Hartford
New Haven •
Spring field- Chlcopee-
Holyoke
*Baltlmore
*Washingtcm
Providence- Pawtucket-
Warvlck
...
--
*Boston
Spring field- Chicopee-
Holyoke
Worcester
*Albany-Schenectady-
Troy
Blnghamton
Buffalo
*New York
*Rochester
Syracuse
Utica-Rome
Atlanta
Wilmington
Seattle-Everett
Tacoma
*Portland
Anaheim-Santa Ana-
Garden Grove
Bakersfleld
Fresno
Maximum Number of Kennlblu Central Pnio-nn Inn
1970 Resource Recovery Plant n by SI/..;
Population 1,000 2,000 3,000 4.000 !>,000
(000) Tons/Day Tona/Day Tons/Day Tons/Day Tuna/Dii
609 1
1,857 2
1,359 1
304 1
389 1
664 1
356 1
530 1
2,071 1 1
2,86.1 1 1
914 I 2
--
--
2,754 . 11
530 1
344 1
721 1
303 1
1,349 1
11,529 1 5
883 1
636 1
340 1 .
1,390 1
499 1
1,422 1
411 1
1,009 1
1,420 1
329 1
413 1
Los Angeles-Long Beach 7,032 1 4
Oxnard-Ventura
Sacramento
San Bernardino-
Riverside-Ontario
*San Diego
San Francisco-
Oakland
San Jose
376 1
801 1
1,143 1
1,358 • i
3,110 2
1,065 I
55
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TABLE 15(Concluded)
- Maximum Number of Feasible Central Processing
Year State
1985 South Carolina
i
1990 Arkansas
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Michigan
Illinois
North Carolina
Ohio
Nebraska
Minnesota
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Nevada
Maine
Florida
SMSA
Charleston
Columbia
Greenville
Little Rock-
N. Little Rock
New Orleans
Milwaukee
*Detroit
Flint
Grand Rapids
Lansing
*Chicago
Peoria
Charlotte
Greensboro-Winston-
Salem-Hlgh Point
*Akron
Canton
*Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton '
Toledo
Youngs town-Warren
Omaha
Minneapolls-St. Paul
Davenport-Rock Island-
Moline
Allentown-Bethlehem-
Easton
. Harrisburg
Lancaster
*Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Wllkes-Barre-
Hazleton
York
Nor f o Ik-Portsmou th
Richmond
--
--'
Fort Lauderdale-
Hollywood
Jacksonville
Miami
Orlando
1970
Population
(000)
304
323
300
323
1.046
1.404
4,200
497
539
378
6,979
342
409
604
679
372
2,064
916
850
693
536
541
1,814
363
544
411
320
4,818
2,401
342
330
681
518
--
--
620
529
1,268
428
Resource Recovery Plants by Size
1.000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
. Tone /Day Tons/Day Tons /Day Tons/Day Tons/Da'
1
1
1
1
1 2
' 1
1 2
1
1
1
1 4
1
1
' . 1
1
1
..11
1
1
1 . •
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1 3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Tampa-St. Petersburg 1,013
* Resource recovery systems are currently under development in the city or SMSA.
Source: Bureau of Census 1970 Population Estimates; Midwest Research Institute.
56
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The next calculation was an extension of the data in Table 17;
the quantity of waste that would be processed if all of the systems were
actually built in the years indicated and. operated as given (Table 18).
By 1990, it is possible that 90.9 million tons would be processed annually,
or nearly half of the total waste generated. Thus, the potential for
resource recovery is quite high (although our forecasts of what will actu-
ally occur are more conservative).
i
We have only indicated in Tables 17 and 18 the recovery processing
that is economically feasible in selected states. Because of the fact that
farmland values are the lowest common denominator for land disposal sites,
it is to be expected that a much higher land value would be contemplated
at sites closer to metropolitan areas.
Because of the fact that our land value estimates are very con-
servative, it is to be expected that resource recovery will be feasible in
many metropolitan areas that face a waste processing decision. Thus, it
follows that the plants built in any one year will not necessarily corres-
pond to the states in which economic feasibility is demonstrated by our
forecasting technique. The plants could be located anywhere the basic
criteria are met. Thus, the SMSA's listed in Table 16 are also potential
locations for resource recovery facilities (In fact, some already exist,
e.g., St. Louis.)
Recognizing (1) that not all areas where resource recovery is
economically feasible will adopt the concept; (2) that some areas will
install resource recovery facilities that are not economically feasible;
and (3) that many economically feasible resource recovery locations will
lie outside the states identified as feasible, estimates have been made
of the number and characteristics of the central processing plants that
will actually be installed. The processing plant characteristics are
summarized in Table 19, while the tonnages involved are presented in
Table 20. (See also Tables 13 and 14 for the "most likely" columns that
are the basis for ihe data in Tables 19 and 20.)
Thus, while we estimate that five plants will be in operation by
1975, this does not mean they will be in New Jersey, the one state that
shows economic feasibility by that date. Instead, we believe the first
five plants will be in St. Louis, Missouri; Chicago, Illinois; Ames, Iowa;
Nashville, Tennessee; and Baltimore, Maryland. Others are being planned
or have been announced.
57
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TABLE 16
ADDITIONAL SMSA'S OF 300.000 POPULATION OR GREATER IN STATES.WHERE
RESOURCE RECOVERY POTENTIAL IS LIMITED*
Colorado
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
SMSA
Birmingham
Mobile
Phoenix
Tucson
Denver
Gary-Hamraond-E. Chicago
Indianapolis
Wichita
Louisville
New Orleans
Kansas City
**St. Louis,
Albuquerque
Oklahoma City
Tulsa
Chattanooga
**Knoxville
**Memphis
**Nashvilla
Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange
Dallas
El Paso
Ft. Worth
Houston
*San Antonio
Salt Lake City
1970
Population
(OOP)
739
377
968
352
1,228
633
1,110
389
827
1,046
1,254
2,363
316
641
477
305
400
770
541
316
1,556
359
762
1,985
864
558
** Resource Recovery Systems are currently under development or active
consideration.
* These are states not included in Figure 18 for statewide economic
feasibility for resource recovery.
Source: Midwest Research Institite.
58
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TABLE 17
CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTRAL PROCESSING PLANTS IN STATES AND SMSA's
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
NO: of
States
1
3
10
... 15
WHERE
No. of
SMSA's
4
7
28
35
RESOURCE RECOVERY IS ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE^/
No,
1 , 000
Tons/Day
1
2
12
13
. of Central Processing Plants
2,000
Tons/Day
1
2
2
11
3,000
Tons/Day
2
4
6
10
4,000
Tons/Day
1
2
5
5
by Size
5,000
Tons/Day
0
1
14
10
Total
Plants
5
11
39
49
Total 29
74
28
16
22
13
25
104
a/ Assumes "most likely" parameters and includes only SMSA's of 300,000 people
or more in states where resource recovery becomes economically feasible
(Table 15 and excludes SMSA's in Table 16).
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
TABLE 18
WASTE PROCESSING POTENTIAL IN STATES WHERE RESOURCE
RECOVERY IS ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE^/
Quantity of Waste Throughput in Central Processing
Plants by Size (Tons/Year)
Year
1975
1980
1985;
1990
1,000
Tons /Day
300,000
600,000
3,600,000
3,900,000
1
1
6
2,000
Tons /Day
600,000
,200,000
,200,000
,600,000
1
3
5
9
3,000
Tons /Day
,800,000
,600,000
,400,000
,000,000
1
2
6
6
4,000
Tons /Day
,200,000
,400,000
,000,000
,000,000
1
21
15
5,000
Tons /Day
0
,500,000
,000,000
,000,000
3
9
37
40
Total
,900; 000
,300,000
,200,000
,500,000
Total 8,400,000 9,600,000 19,800,000 15,600,000 37,500,000 90,900,000
a/ Assumes "most likely" parameters and includes only SMSA's of 300,000 people
or more in states where resource recovery becomes economically feasible
(Table 15).
Source: Midwest Research Institute, based on Table 17.
59
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TABLE 19
CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTRAL PROCESSING PLANTS. NEWLY INSTALLED. 1975-199Q3/
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
No. of
SMSAs
4
5
14
17
No. of Plants by Size
Total 40
1,000
Tons/Day
3
2
6
_7
18
2,000
Tons/Day
2
2
2
_5
11
3,000
Tons/Day
0
3
5
_6
14
4,000
Tons/Day
0
0
2
3
5,000
Tons/Day
0
0
5
_7
12
Total No.
of Plants
5
7
20
28
60
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
a/ Includes plants in SMSA's both in and outside of states in which re-
source recovery will become economically feasible by 1990 (Tables
15 and 16).
TABLE 20
TOTAL MIXED SOLID WASTE CENTRALLY PROCESSED FOR RESOURCE RECOVERY.
BY YEAR, 1975 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
Plants
Installed
5
7
20
28
Quantity of Waste
Processed—'
Total
Plants
In Use
5
12
32
60
a/ Based on "most likely" estimated number of plants, operating at daily
capacity 300 days per year (Table 19).
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Year
2,100
4,500
17,400
24,600
Total
2,100
6,600
24,000
48,600
60
-------
By 1990, we believe the geographic pattern of plant installation
will conform more closely to the forecast model we have used, if some allow-
ance is made for "exception" metropolitan areas in states that do not become
"eligible,for resource recovery under our base criteria." Local conditions,
including the economic, political and social climate of an area, will lead
to some deviations from our general model, and this is fully recognized as
a factor. For example, St. Louis, Missouri, and Nashville, Tennessee, are
already well along in the development of recovery facilities. Thus, other
sites may develop recovery systems, even if the state itself does not meet
the base criteria of our forecast.
61
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CHAPTER IV
GENERAL APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF
SEVEN MATERIALS IN SOLID WASTES .
INTRODUCTION
Much of the detail of this report is devoted to development of
forecasts of recovery for the major materials included in the study.
In three of these materials, there is significant recycling now from post-
consumer waste--ferrous metals, aluminum, and paper. In two, there is
limited recycling of post-consumer waste—glass and rubber. Plastics
recovery (post-consumer waste) for recycling is not practiced in signifi-
cant quantity.
Each of the materials is covered in a separate chapter follow-
ing this one. The objective of each material discussion is to arrive at
a forecast of resource recovery for the 1972 to 1990 period for that ma-
terial, focusing on recovery from the solid waste stream.
GENERAL METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH
The forecasts of resource recovery have been developed using a
common methodology and sequence of analysis tasks for each material.
First, a forecast of material demand and production was made to
1990 for the industry in question, e.g., paper. This included the details
of selected segments of the industry that were of particular interest in
this study such as packaging uses. In effect this was a market analysis
and forecast, which established the basis on which solid waste and resource
recovery profiles could be developed. (The specific products detailed for
each material are given in the chapters, e.g., glass containers.)
Second, we developed a profile of waste generation for each mate-
rial based on demand and the use characteristics of the end products. There
was a time element assigned to waste generation rates based on the product
life cycle. For example, newspapers and most packaging become waste almost
as produced, i.e., on a very short life cycle. Other items such as appli-
ances may not appear in the waste stream for years. These factors were
taken into account. In addition, products that are unrecoverable or fail
to enter into the municipal waste stream were accounted for, including uses
62
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in which a product leaves the municipal waste cycle or is unidentifiable
again, e.g., roofing felts (which come into demolition wastes) or auto panel
hard-board (which is part of auto hulks); or toilet paper which is disposed of
in sewage systems. The result of this step was the development of a waste
profile based on: product life cycle; disappearance or diversion from ,
municipal waste; and time/rate of generation. We determined only net waste
generation, i.e., that withdrawn from the waste stream for recycling is not
shown as waste material handled within solid waste systems for disposal.
Third, the municipal waste generation was determined by source:
residential, commercial/institutional, and industrial. For the most part,
we determined this by judgment and selected reference to published data.
Most products are household waste because so much of the study emphasis
was on packaging and other consumer products. However, an allocation was
made to each source.
Fourth, we determined what portion of the waste generated is
potentially recoverable for recycling, reuse or useful conversion. Our
basic premise was that any waste in an SMSA was "accessible" to recovery
from an economic, geographic, and quantity standpoint. In general, about
70 percent of waste generated falls in this category. Over and above that
allowance must be made for actual collection and mechanical efficiency if
recovery is to be realistically assessed. A broad generalization is that
70 percent efficiency is realistic, which means that from a recovery potential
standpoint, about 50 percent of waste generated nationally could be recovered
(0.70 of quantity x 0.70 efficiency).
Fifth, we made a forecast of actual resource recovery based upon
our best estimates of the recycling requirements of the various industries
and the extent to which waste recovery options would provide the material
from municipal waste. The recovery modes included "traditional" secondary
materials recovery procedures; source separation; consumer collection centers;
transfer station separation; and centralized waste processing facilities. The
recovery profile forecast for each material was developed to 1990, including
the quantity recovered for its energy content.
In the case of the materials chapters that follow, only the "most
likely" recovery forecasts are included. However, as indicated in Chapter
III, we did make an estimate of the range over which resource recovery could
apply from 1975 to 1990. The recovery profile for each material would vary
proportionately to that range, which is based upon solid waste processed
through resource recovery systems.
Finally, incorporated within each of these material and recovery
forecasts are the effects of some variables that could influence the recovery
profiles (upward or downward). The consideration of special factors is a
part of any forecast and these considerations were incorporated implicitly
t
63
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or explicitly. Specific factors that were considered included: demand
for products compared to natural resource availability or resources; end
use trends in various markets; environmental standards; trends in energy
availability; waste disposal and processing cost trends; public attitudes
toward resource use, recycling and solid waste. An example of an assumption
is that state legislation on beverage containers (e.g., Oregon, Vermont)
would extend to five or six states in the future. We believe th»y would be
low population areas and the effect of state legislation on the total demand
forecasts would be minimal even though laws may eliminate all but returnable
containers in those few states.
By contrast, if we have missed the intermaterials competition effects
or the. impact of the energy crisis, our forecasts of demand for materials could
be high, and for any material (e.g., aluminum, plastics) could differ consider-
ably from what we forecast. Likewise, the resource recovery pattern could
differ considerably as well, if major developments override our basic judgments
for each material. However, we point these factors out only to call attention
to the fact that any forecast must be considered in the light of the conditions
on which it is based. We believe that the forecasts developed in this repor.t
are a realistic assessment of the future.
BASIC ECONOMIC AND POPULATION DATA
The demand and use of products commonly relates to such basic
factors as "real" GNP, disposable income, population and other economic
indicators. The basic data used in this report as background for some
of the forecasts of demand and recovery is given in Table 21. These basic
economic data were derived from various sources (government, industry, pri-
vate) and are not MRI forecasts. However, the forecasts in the other chap-
ters of the report utilize this information where appropriate to develop
our own forecasts.
The chapters which follow detail the materials individually.
The following three cover the inorganics-rglass, ferrous metals, and aluminum.
The subsequent three cover the organics--plastics, rubber and paper.
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON MATERIALS RECOVERY
The materials included in this study will be utilized in two recov-
ery options in the future—recycling or energy recovery. The inorganics are
suited best for recycling applications — ferrous metals, aluminum and glass.
Of these, ferrous metals and aluminum should have little problem being recycled
64
-------
TABLE ^1
BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS. 1960-1990
GNP (Billion Real Dollars)a/
GNP (Billion Current Dollars)
Per Capita Income (Real) a/
Population (In millions)
Disposable,Personal Income
Billion (Real) Dollarsa/
CMP (Billion Real Dollars)a/
GNP (Billion Current Dollars)
Per Capita Income (Real)a/
Population (In millions)
Disposable Personal Income
Billion (Real Dollars)*/
1960
661.8
503.7
2,437.0
180.6
440.2
1971
998.7
1,046.8
3,442.0
207.0
712.5
1961
676.1
520.1
2,472.0
183.6
453.8
1972
1.055.0
1.147.0
3,500.0
209.0
534.0
1962
719.3
560.3
2,549.0
186.5
475.3
1973
l.lll.O
1.248.0
3,701.0
211.5
785.0
1963
746.9
590.5
2,609.0
189.1
493.4
1975
1.209.0
1,427.0
3.806.0
216.5
830.0
1964
786.0
632.3
2,753.0
191.8
527.9
1980
1,474.0
1.970.0
4.288.0
230.8
1.015.0
1965
834.0
684.9
2,899.0
194.2
562.9
1985
1,764.0
2.685.0
4.750.0
246.2
1,225.0
1966 1967 1968 1969
887.0 914.2 957.0 980.4
749.9 793.9 864.2 929.1
3,024.0 3,111.0 3,219.0 3,281.0
196.4 198.6 200.6 202.5
593.9 617.9 645.7 664.5
1990
2.054.0
3.285.0
5.171.0
260.7
1,440.0
1970
974.!
. 974.1
3,358.0
204.8
687.8
a/ Base Year 1957.
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Series p-25. No 476, February 1972, Projection Series D
Predlcasts, Inc., Issue No. 48. July 28, 1972.
-------
in whatever quantity they can be recovered. Both can be recovered in central-
ized processing facilities or in collection/separation centers. However, the
technology of aluminum recovery has not yet been demonstrated on a commercial
basis. The recipient industries (steel and aluminum) will be capable of
accommodating increased recycling, and will very likely encourage it.
Glass recycling will depend heavily on locational factors and the
technological capability to produce color sorted materials Since the basic
raw materials for glass are in adequate supply, the technology of recovery
is unproven, and container plants are not near every large population
center, the recycling of glass will not move ahead as rapidly as will the
other inorganic materials (metals).
Of the organics, recycling appears to be viable only for paper.
Paper can best be recovered for recycling via source separation, and by
collection within solid waste management systems. However, some paper will also
be recovered for recycling from centralized recovery facilities. That
which cannot be recovered for recycling can be processed for its energy
content.
The other organic materials in mixed waste are suitable for
energy recovery options of various kinds. Most plastics, textiles and
rubber are derived from hydrocarbon sources giving them a high energy con-
tent per pound. In addition, there are difficulties in recycling plastics,
rubber and synthetic textiles, although rubber tires could enter a reuse
mode if retreading returns to favor for private automobiles.
The greatest uncertainty in the MRI forecasts is the effect
that energy conservation practices will have on recycling and resource
recovery. Energy conservation practices directed at fossil fuels could
have several effects as they relate to our specific recovery forecasts for
each material: (1) Reduce the total demand for some materials: (2) Shift
demand to less energy intensive products—in which case plastics, synthe-
tic textiles, and aluminum would not reach the demand levels we forecast;
(3) Stimulate recycling/reuse because of internal industry process energy
savings for some materials; and (4) Stimulate energy recovery via substi-
tution of solid waste for fossil fuels in power generation'and industrial
processes. It is likely that all four of these factors will occur to some
extent.
Of these, we believe that the current energy supply shortage in
the U.S.A. will tend to stimulate recycling and reuse and lead to more ra-
pid development of energy recovery from solid waste. Thus, if anything,
our resource recovery forecasts could prove to be conservative.
.66
-------
CHAPTER V
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR GLASS CONTAINERS TO 1990
SUMMARY
The demand for all glass containers will increase at the rate of
2.6 percent per year between 1972 and 1980, after which time, total demand
will essentially level out to 1990. The growth of the nonreturnable bever-
age container is nearing full maturity. Therefore, growth in this product
group will slow. Glass will lose market share to plastic and metal con-
tainers.
The total tonnage of glass container waste generated will rise
from 12.2 million tons in 1972, to 15.1 million tons in 1980, and 15.2
million tons in 1990. This is equivalent to 38.7 billion units in 1972
and 43.3 billion units in 1980. Of the total tonnage, 8.4 million tons
were generated in SMSA's in 1972, 10.7 million tons in 1980, and 11.0
million tons will be generated in SMSA's in 1990.
On a source basis (1972) about 10 million tons or 82 percent of
waste glass containers are generated in households; 2 million tons are
generated in commercial and institutional establishments, and 0.2 million
tons are generated in industrial plants. This relationship will not
change significantly over time.
Other glass waste amounting to 1.0 million tons in 1972 brought
total glass in municipal solid waste to 13.2 million tons in 1972; by 1990,
other glass waste will be 1.7 million tons and total glass waste 16.9
million tons. Noncontainer glass consists of window glass, drinking ware
and miscellaneous uses of glass, e.g., laboratory glass.
We estimate that only SMSA's have the population base and density
to sustain significant glass recovery operations. Recycling of glass back
into containers will be the most predominant use of recovered glass. How-
ever, several factors lead us to conclude that the recovery of glass con-
tainers from waste will be modest and develop slowly. These are: the
technology and economics of glass recovery from mixed municipal waste are
still experimental; the logistics of transportation will influence recovery
since many SMSA's are remote from glass container plants.; there is an
abundance of soda ash and sand, the basic raw materials; the specifications
for color sorted cullet are likely to be difficult to achieve; the mechani-
cal efficiency of recovery technology is relatively low at present.
67
-------
Nevertheless, we believe glass container cullet will be rec.^ered
via three mechanisms: voluntary citizen collection; commercial cullet
dealers; glass recovery processing systems associated with mixed waste
processing for resource recovery. Of these, voluntary collections will
become somewhat more important; cullet dealer operations will all but
disappear; and recovery of .glass from central processing systems will
begin about 1980. ,
The MRI forecasts of recovery.are summarized for the 1972 to 1990
period in Table 22. Total recovery for recycling will rise from 275,000
tons in 1972 to 850,000 tons in 1990.
The recovery of waste glass (principally containers) for recycling
will rise from 275,000 tons in 1972 to 850,000 tons in 1990; or from 3.3
percent to 7.7 percent of total waste glass generation. After 1980, the
primary recovery technique will be mechanical separation of glass from
mixed waste in association with large centralized recovery operations.
Most of the glass recovered will be recycled into containers although a
small amount will be utilized in other products such as glass wool and
terrazzo tile.
INTRODUCTION
Glass containers are one of the oldest packages for containing
liquids and solids. Glass is nonporous, transparent, chemically inert,
impermeable to oxygen and carbon dioxide and can be cast and shaped into
many forms and sizes. Because it is impermeable, it does not retain odors
and can be cleaned and reused. These properties have made it a desirable
container for packaging a wide variety of foods and beverages such as soft
drinks, beer, wine and distilled spirits. Drugs, Pharmaceuticals, toilet-
ries, and cosmetic products are also packaged in glass containers, along
with numerous household and industrial chemical items.. These uses re-
presented a market for 38.7 billion new containers in 1972.
It is estimated that refillable glass containers for soft drinks,
beer and milk were filled 32.4 billion times during 1972, bringing the
total to 71.1 billion containers shipped to the marketplace during the year,
68
-------
TABLE 22
SUMMARY OF WASTE GLASS RECOVERY. 1972 TO 1990
v£>
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
Glass
Waste
Generated
13,200
14,500
16,400
16,600
16,900
(In Thousand Tons)
Amount
Glass
Container
12,220
13,440
15,110
15,110
15,200
Amount
Processed for
a/
Recovery—
0
20
170
540
860
Recovered
Mechanical
System5-/
0
10
100
350
600
Amount
Recovered
via Separate
Collection£/
275
265
275
250
250
Total
Recovery
275
275
375
600
850
Percent
Recovery
2.8
1.8
2.3
3.6
5.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
a/ Only that which is processed in a glass recovery subsystem; the total glass in waste processed will
be higher (see Table 4).
b_/ About 90 percent of the glass is container glass.
£/ Nearly all of this is considered to be container glass.
-------
GLASS CONTAINER;DEMAND BY MARKET.. 1962 TO 1990
Trends in Container Deniand
Glass container demand increased at 4.4 percent per year, from
1962 to 1972,, or from 25.05 billion units to the present level of 38.7
billion units (Table 23). This growth was quite smooth during the first
half of the decade but has been eratic in recent years partly as a result
of the effects of a strike in 1968 and of changing patterns in the soft
drink markets. Glass containers accounted for 6.75 million tons of ma-
terial in 1962 and had nearly doubled by 1972 to 12.22 million tons for a
growth rate of 6.1 percent per year. By 1980 it appears that glass con-
tainer demand will have reached full maturity at 43.4 billion units and
15.1 million tons.
Nonreturnable soft drink, and beer containers were responsible
for almost all of the 13.6 billion increase in glass container demand
between 1962 and 1972 (Table 24). Nonreturnable soft drink containers
account for 61 percent of this total as they increased from 480 million to
8.76 billion during this period. Almost all of the growth occurred between
1965 and 1970, when the single-trip container became a commercially accepted
product. Since 1970, growth in total volume packaged has slowed considerably
as the markets for glass one-trip containers approach saturation. Unit
growth has slowed more as the 32-ounce and larger containers replace smaller
sizes.
TABLE 24
NET CHANGE IN GLASS CONTAINER SHIPMENTS, 1962 TO 1980
Liquor
Wine
Food
(In
:ainer Type
. (returnable)
: (nonreturntble)
rnable)
eturnable)
.nd Health
and Cosmetics
and Chemical
billion containers)
Period
1962-1972
(0.15)
8.28
(0.10)
4.17
0.68
0.62
1.85
(0.28)
,: (0.71)
(0.75)
Period
1972-1980
(0.15)
2.44
(0.03)
1.51
0.56
0.43
0.48
(0.24)
(0.34)
(0.11)
Total
13.61
4.75
Source: 1962-1972, U.S. Department of Commerce; 1962-1972, Liquor and
Wine - MRI estimate; 19J2-198Q. MRI estimate.
70
-------
TABLE 23
GLASS CONTAINER DEMAND BY UNITS AND TONNAGE. 1962-1990
Soft Drink - Returnable
Soft Drink - Nonreturnable
Beer - Returnable
Beer - Nonreturnable
Liquor^/
1962 1972 1975 1980 1990
Units Tons Units Tons Units Tons Units Tons Units .Tons
Billion!/ (OOO)c/ Billionl/ (000)£/ Billion!/ (000)£/ Billion3./ (QOO)C/ Billion^/ (000)£/
Food
Drug and Pharmaceutical
Toiletries and Cosmetics
Household and Chemical
Total Domestic
Export
Total
Growth rate
7»/year
1.60
0.48
0.35
3.42
1.72
0.75
10.07
3.25
2.05
1.36
774.9
177.4
121.4
784.0
737.0
373.9
2,313.3
745.4
467.0
313.8
1.45
8.76
0.25
7.59
2.40
1.37
11.92
2.97
1.34
0.61
802.9
3,315.7
75.8
1,815.7
1,120.8
828.2
3,017.7
755.0
333.8
154.0
1.30
9.90
0.22
8.28
2.66
1.53
12.21
2.88
1.12
0.50
772
3,953
70
2,070
1,293
983
3,180
750
292.
130
1.30
11.20
0.22
9.10
3.16
1.80
12.40
2.73
1.00
0.50
722
4,666
72
2,338
1,591
1,218
3,358
739
271
135
1.30
11.20
0.22
9.10
3.16
2.10
12.40
2.60
0.70
0.53
722
4,666
72
2,338
1,591
1,421
3,358
704
190
143
25.05 6,749.1
0.28
25.33
38.66
0.25
38.91
12,219.6
40.60
0.25
40.85
13,443
15,110
1962-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
Units
4.4
1.5
0
Tons
6.1
2.6
0
Source: a/ U.S. Department of Commerce, 1962-1972.
b/ Domestic production for U.S. imports.
c/ Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon average weights reported by Glass Container
Manufacturers Institute, Midwest Research Institute estimates, 1975-1990.
-------
The acceptance of the single-trip beer bottle began much earlier
and demand increased from 3.42 billion containers .in 196"2 to 7.^9 billion
in 1972. This 4.17 billion unit increase accounted for 31 percent of the
total increase in demand for glass containers. Growth was steady during
the early part of the decade, but has slowed since 1970 as the potential
for replacement of the round-trip container reaches completion. It is not
difficult to see why glass container manufacturers have pursued the non-
returnable beer and soft drink markets--all of the other end uses grew
modestly or declined in the 1962 to 1972 period as plastics, steel and
aluminum packages displaced some user of glass.
Food, liquor, and wine containers increased modestly during the
period. Food is a very stable but large market for glass containers.
Container use increased from 10.07 billion in 1962 to 11.92 billion in
1972, which is about equivalent to population growth. Increasing personal
disposable income has stimulated the growth for wine and liquor as con-
tainer use increased from 2.47 billion units in 1962 to 3-77 billion in
1972.
All other uses declined during this period. Returnable beer
and soft drink containers were replaced by the one-trip glass container
and metal can. The use of plastic and metal containers (including aerosols)
have caused a decline in household and industrial chemical, toiletry and
cosmetic, and drug and pharmaceutical containers. Demand for glass con-
tainers in these markets has decreased 26.2 percent from 6.67 billion con-
tainers in 1962 to 4.92 billion in 1972.
The future markets for glass containers will be similar to past
markets with nonreturnable soft drink and beer containers accounting for
most of the growth. However, this growth will be at a much slower rate
because the substitution for the returnable container is reaching its
maximum market penetration. Further, the trend to large sized soft drink
containers, coupled with a slowing of soft drink demand, will reduce the
need for additional new containers.
One-way beer containers will increase from 7.59 billion in 1972
to 9.10 billion in 1980, at which time we expect demand to level out.
Correspondingly, one-way soft drink containers will increase from 8.76
billion to 11.20 billion during the same period. Beyond 1980, the all-
plastic beverage container will become commercial and will capture most^, if
not all, of the growth that would have gone to glass containers. Demand in
1990 will be at the same level as 1980.
Glass, food, liquor and wine containers will increase slowly,
but plastic containers will capture more of the food market. Food containers
will increase from 11.92 billion in 1972 to 12.40 billion in 1980. Liquor
\
72
-------
and wine will grow at a faster rate as the population shifts to a greater
percentage in the "drinking age." Demand will increase from 3.77 billion
containers in 1972 to 4.96 billion in 1980.
Returnable beer and soft drink containers should end their decline
by 1975, as the one-way container approaches its maximum market share. De-
.mand in 1980 will be 1.52 billion containers.
Household and industrial chemicals, toiletry and cosmetics, and
drug and pharmaceutical containers will continue to decline from 4.92 bil-
lion in 1972 to 4.23 billion in 1980, as plastic containers continue to cap-
ture markets as the result of the installation of plastic blow molding
equipment in plants packaging these products.
This slowdown in the growth of beverage markets, coupled with
continuing replacement by plastic containers, will result in a growth rate
of 1.5 percent per year through 1980, when 43.41 billion glass containers
will be used. Beyond 1980, the development of the commercial plastic bev-
erage container will cause demand for glass containers to remain at about
the 1980 level. Thus, 1990 use will be 43.31 billion containers.
About 250 million containers were exported in 1972. Exports have
varied little during the past decade and are projected to remain at this
level in the future.
Imports in 1972 were valued at about $9,500,000 and consisted of
perfume bottles and other small containers. Quantity estimates are not
available, but it is assumed that it is probably about 100-150 million con-
tainers. This is a small amount in relation to all containers produced
and is not considered a significant factor in solid waste generation. The
import of products in glass containers (e.g., whiskey) is an unknown and
could not be determined.
Figure 20 shows the market shares by type of containers in 1962-
1980. The shares in 1990 will be essentially the same as 1980.
Trends in Container Weight
Although the growth of glass containers has been 4.4 percent per
year during the past decade, the average size of the containers has been
increasing, resulting in a faster growth for container weight. The average
weight of a container in 1962 was 8.6 ounces. This average has steadily
increased to 10.1 ounces in 1972. This resulted in the production of 6.75
million tons of glass containers in 1962, which increased at a rate of 6.1
percent per year to 12.22 million tons in 1972.
73
-------
-R Beer 1.4
-R Beer 0.6
•House & Ind 5.4
R - Returnable
NR - Nonreturnable
Numbers are percent.
& Ind 1.6
Toilet & Cos 3.5 .
use & Ind 1.1
-Toilet & Coj 2.3
1962
25.05 Billion
Source: U. S . Deportment of Commerce 1962-1972
' . MRI Estimates (Wine and Liquor) 1962-1972
MRl Estimates 1980
1972
38.66 Billion
1980
43.41 Billion
Figure 20 - Glass Containers Percent by End Uses (Units), 1962-1980
-------
Although nearly all containers have been getting larger, much of
the growth in weight has been in the nonreturnable soft drink container
which has increased its share of the total container market from 1.9 per-
cent in 1962 to 22.7 percent in 1972. Since the average weight of a
nonreturnable soft drink container is greater than the average for all
containers, it becomes a major factor in increasing the total weight of
.all containers. On a weight basis, it represented 27.1 percent of the 1972
tonnage (Table 23).
The nonreturnable soft drink container has been increasing in
average weight as a result of consumer demand for the 32- and 48-ounce sizes.
This has been a recent development which was stimulated by commercializa-
tion of the resealable screw top cap. Initially the single-trip container
was marketed in larger sizes. As its popularity increased,, it was introduced
in smaller containers. The average weight steadily decreased to a low of
9.6 ounces per container in 1967. The weight has increased rapidly in the .
past 3 years,, reaching a level of 12.1 ounces in 1972, as more of the large
sized containers are purchased by the consumer.
Food containers, which represent 24.7 percent of the weight of
all glass containers, have also been increasing in average weight. Much
of this increased average weight is a result of a decline in baby food jar
production (i.e., a light, small container).
The weight of containers is forecast to increase through 1980,
when the average container will weigh 11.1 ounces and then, the average
weight will remain at this level from 1980 to 1990. Soft drink containers
will continue to cause the average weight to increase as their share of
the glass market expands to 25.8 percent by 1980 (Figure 21). Large con-
tainers are expected to increase from 14.6 percent of the 1973 soft drink
market to 23.6 percent by 1975 at the expense of smaller containers.—'
This would be expected to cause a rapid increase in weight. However, it
will be dampened by the acceptance of plastic covered glass containers
which weigh less than a comparable glass container. Average weight will
increase to 13.3 ounces per container by 1980.
Food containers will also increase in average weight as the
recent decline in the birth rate further reduces the demand for the small
baby food containers.
The resulting increase in average weight, along with increased
demand for containers, will generate a growth rate of 2.6 percent per year
from 12.22 million tons in 1972 to 15.11 million tons in 1980, where it will
remain essentially constant through 1990 (Figure 22).
75
-------
NONRETURNABLE (1)
SOFT DRINKS
ALL CONTAINERS (2)
14
12
. 1°
c
'o
0
U
£ 8
£
u
c
0
•s
.*-
.? 6
0)
a>
0)
o
5
^£
4
2
/\
i
_ i
_
—
_
-
-
-
,' ' '
-
-
-
1 C
i . >
£j
5«i
Si:
%i
1
ft:
»•••
*•*«
#*•*
::::
|:
*?*"
*•*•
•*»*
•••I
• •*
•:
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i:
•v
•X
*•*•
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'f?
1
X;
•:•:
*•*•
?.6
.;.;.
;•.*•:
'•*•
•:•:;
^»*o'
*•*«'
*•**'
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:ii
:•:•
iiii.;
S.9
>!•!
•:%
'•***
* * •
X-
»i
P
!*•*•
;::::
P
i-i:
'•:•:
>:•:
!*•*•
!*•*•
*•*
•::i
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1
'*•*•
'*•**
1
0 1
fj
>:f;
*o •'
•* *
*• *l
:•: J
II
•: :'
II
;:•;
X:
F
>:: i:
•: :•
:•: :•
•:• •
:•: :•
!•* :
•:• •
'»• •
':• *
!*: :
iii
'•* *
i*: :
1.1
•*:•*:
'•'.',
1
i
i
m
H;:
'•*•*
!•••!
i
X*
:*x*
!
'••J?
*•*•*
i*i*f
'*••*!
;:-i-
1
>:•*•
>i'i
1
•:•:
1962 1967 1972 1980
1962 1967 1972 1980
Source: (1) Glass Container Manufacturers Institute 1962-1972
MRIEstimates 1980
(2) MRI Estimates
Figure 21 - Average Glass Container Weights, 1962 to 1980
76
-------
-R Beer 0.6
R Beer 1.8
NR Soft Drink
2.6
-House & Ind 4.7
R - Re'urnable
NR - Nonreturnable
Numbers ere Descent.
R Beer 0.5
Drugs & Pharm-
6.2
LHouse & Ind 1.2
Toilet & Cos 2.7
Drugs & Phorm—' I '—House
4.9
& Ind 0.9
Toilet & Cos 1 .8
1962
6,749.000 Tons
Source: Glass Container Manufacturers Institute Average Vv'eioht 1962-1972
MSI Estirrate 1980
1972
12.220.000 Tons
1980
15.110.000 Tons
Figure 22 - Glass Containers Percent of End Uses By Weight, 1962-1980
-------
WASTE GENERATION FROM GLASS CONTAINERS
Glass containers are used primarily to package consumer products.
They are manufactured; shipped to a packager, filled and shipped to a
retailer. The consumer purchases the container, uses the product, and, with
the exception of the returnable container, discards it along with other
household waste. This is all assumed to occur within 1 year and in many,
if not most cases, is less than 1 month after purchase.
A certain portion of returnable containers are broken, lost or
discarded each year. This quantity is approximately equal to the annual
production of returnable containers.
It is possible that some products will be in inventory at the
producer or consumer level for more than a year and that some containers
may be diverted for decorative or other use .around the home. The net
addition each year is probably very small in relation to the total amount
of containers produced so we have not assumed that it is a factor in glass
container waste generation.
The above factors are considered to be insignificant in relation
to the total glass containers discarded and we have assumed that 100 percent
of the containers appear in the solid waste stream essentially as they are
manufactured or purchased. This results in a total glass container waste
generation of 12.22 million tons in 1972, which will increase to 15.11 mil-
lion tons by 1980, and remain at that level through 1990.
WASTE GLASS CONTAINER GENERATION BY SOURCE
Glass Containers in Household, Commercial and Industrial Waste
Glass containers will appear as waste from households and apartments
as a result of their use by the consumer; from commercial and institutional
establishments as a result of over-the-counter sales and direct purchases
by institutions; and from industrial establishments primarily from beverage
vending machines, containers for research laboratory chemicals and general
industrial maintenance chemicals. Table 25 shows the estimated waste gener-
ation by each of these categories. The results show that 81.8 percent of
the glass containers appear as household wastes; 16.4 percent from commercial
and institutional establishments and 1.8 percent from industrial sources.
These ratios will vary depending upon the market for the material contained
in the glass.
78
-------
TABLE 25
WASTE GLASS CONTAINER GENERATION. BY SOURCE. 1972
(In thousand tons and percent)
Soft Drinks
Beer
Liquor
Wine i
Food
Drug and
Pharmaceutical
Toiletry and
Cosmetic
Household and
Industrial
Chemical
Total
Household
Tons
(OOP)
3,295
1,608
616
455
2,867
718
301
Percent
80
85
55
55
95
95
90
138
9,998
90
81.9
Commercial and
Institutional
Tons
(000) Percent
618
283
505
373
151
37
33
2,008
15
15
45
45
5
10
Industrial
Percent
206
16.3
8
214
5
1.8
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Soft drinks: It is estimated that 80 percent of the soft drink
glass containers that are disposed each year appear as household waste, 15
percent appear in waste from commercial and institutional establishments,
and the balance from industrial facilities. These figures are supported
by a recent American Canx£.' study shown in Table 26 which shows the amount
of soft drinks consumed in the home, through vending machines and in service
establishments. Since the homeowner only purchases packaged soft drinks,1
we have assumed that the 33.7 billion units used in the home in 1970 are
packaged drinks and equal to 77 percent of the 43.6 billion total packaged
drinks. This share consumed in the, home has been getting larger and has
increased from 68 percent in 1960. It is likely to have increased further
to about 80 percent in 1973.
Another survey of vending products estimates that 5.7 billion
bottles were vended in 1972 and that total will rise to 6.8 billion by
1980.il/
79
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TABLE 26
00
O
Trend to Packaging
Packaged
Nonpackaged
Total
End-use Markets
Home
Vending
Service
Total
Low Calorie Trend
Regular
Low Calorie
Total
1955
Units
Billion
19.7
4.7
24.4
13.0
4.0
7.4
24.4
24.3
0.1
24.4
Percent
80.5
19.5
100.0
53 .2
16.4
30.4
100.0
99.5
0.5
100.0
_ — «^ji vnm% j.?jj iu iy/u
1960 196S
Units
Billion
23.5
4.8
28.3
16.1
4.9
7.3
28.3
27.8
0.5
28.3
Percent
83.0
17.0
100.0
56.9
17.3
25.8
100.0
98.0
2.0
100.0
Units
Billion
32.1
5.2
37,3
24.0
6.8
6.5
1773
32.8
4.5 -
37.3
86.0
14.0
100.0
64.3
18.2
17.5
100 . 0
88.0
12.0
100.0
1970
Units
Billion
43.6
9.1
52.7
33.7
9.6
9.4
52.7
47.4
5.3
52.7
Percent
82.7
17.3
100.0
64.0
18.2
17.8
100.0
90.0
10.0
100.0
Source: American Can Company (Reference 95).
-------
We assumed the use of returnable containers was allocated in
.the same proportion as the nonreturnable beverage containers in households
because no other data were availalbe. Vending accounted for 17.5 percent
of all packaged soft drinks in 1972. All of the vended products are used '
in commercial, institutional or industrial markets. Restaurants arid in.-
stitutional food service organizations also purchased packaged drinks-,for
direct sale or use by occupants. These purchases, plus the vended volume,
.would increase the use. of containers in these markets to 20 percent of'the
total.
j
Although data on industrial consumption of bottled soft drinks
are not available, it is estimated at 5 percent of the total primarily as
vended products. The remaining 15 percent was commercial and institutional
use of containers.
I
Householders use of glass soft drink containers is forecast" to
stabilize at 80 percent of soft drink containers with the average size in
home use increasing. Part of the reason for the percentage decline over
time in households is attributed to increasing use of nonreturnable glass
in vending machines.
Beer: A study of packaged beer by American Can Company^/ showed
an increasing trend toward consumption of beer in the home. Table 27 shows
that packaged beer consumed in the home increased from 60 percent of all
beer consumed in 1958 to 67 percent in 1967. As a percentage of all pack-
aged beer,- it increased from 75 percent to ..80 percent during this period.
These data restated to reflect consumption'on a volume basis are shown in :
Table 28.
The on-premise markets which include taverns, restaurants, and
other commercial establishments that are permitted to sell beer,are largely
a market for returnable glass containers. However, about 680 million non-
returnable containers (12 percent of all nonreturnable beer bottles used in
1967) were used on-premise. We estimated that nonreturnables increased
to 1.0 billion units in on-premise establishments in 1972, equivalent to .
13.2 percent of all beer nonreturnables. If returnables discarded in these
establishments are added to the above, the total glass waste generation in
on-premise establishments is approximately 15 percent. The balance is gen-
erated in households. This basis was used to extend the allocation of
beer containers (by household and commercial) to other years.
Liquor: According to the Distilled Spirits Institute, 58 per-
cent of liquor (by volume) is sold for private consumption and the balance
is sold through commercial establishments. Commercial establishments use
primarily 1/5-gallon containers and the homeowner buys the larger sizes,
the ratio on a container weight basis is more likely 55 percent household
81 .
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TABLE 27
BEER CONSUMPTION BY MARKET. 1949 TO 1967
1949
1958
1967.
On Premise
Draught .:
Packaged
Off Premise
Canned
Nonreturnable bottled
Returnable bottled
Total Sales
55%
30
25
45%
9
2
34
40%
20
20
60%
28
5
27
33%
.16
17
67%
35 .
14
18
100%
100%
100%
Source:. American Can Company. —
95/
TABLE 28
BEER CONSUMPTION BY MARKET AND CONTAINER TYPE, 1967
Metal Cans
Bottled (Nonreturnable) 17.0
Bottled (Returnable)
Draught
Total
107.0
Million Barrels
71.8
35.2
Billion
Containers
Total
41.2
e)17.0
31.4
17.4
Off Premise
37.5
15.0
19.3
--
On Premise
3.7
2.0
12.1
17.4
(On PreraiseJ
1.24
0.68
4.00
--
5.92
Source: Midwest Research Institute based on Table 27.
82
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and 45 percent commercial and institutional. No significant ratio changes
were forecast for the future.
Wine: Wine usage was assumed to be consumed similar to liquor
with 45 percent being sold in restaurants and other eating.establishments
and the balance being consumed in the home. This ratio should change in
the future to a greater share used in the home because of the rapid growth
of the lightly carbonated "pop wines." By 1980, the ratio will .be 60 per-
cent in the home and 40 percent in commercial establishments.
Food: It is estimated that 95 percent of the food containers are
used in households with the balance in commercial and institutional establish-
ments. Commercial establishments purchase food in larger sizes that are
usually packaged in metal cans or drums, thus a high percentage of glass
food containers are sold to householders. Condiments such as catsup and
sauces used directly in restaurants are packed in glass. No change is
anticipated in this ratio in the future.
Toiletries and cosmetics, medicinal and health, household and
industrial chemicals: These items are predominantly consumer products
that are used in the home. Medicinal and health products are also used in
hospitals and medical dispensaries, while cosmetics and toiletries are used
in beauty parlors and other commercial establishments, or are used and disr1'
posed of by .people living and working in institutions or commercial faci-
lities. Household and industrial chemical products are used for cleaning! .
buildings and offices, and to contain chemicals used in industrial facilities.
No change is anticipated in these markets that would alter the ratios given
in Table 25.
Glass Containers in Litter
Some glass containers are discarded to become litter along road-
sides, in parks and on beaches. Numerous litter surveys have been conducted
by groups throughout the country and most of these have identified the bev-
erage container as the glass component of the litter. One comprehensive
study of litter was published by Research Triangle Institute.^i/ This
study estimated that 596 million glass beverage containers were littered
in 1969: This is equivalent to 3.9 percent of all glass beverage containers
produced that year and 1.6 percent of all glass containers produced. The
writers admit the study has limitations since there are no comparable his-
torical data to identify trends. It also covered only interstate and
primary highways, and excluded parks, beaches and recreational areas.
83
-------
Assuming tin1, findings arc reasonable and that about half of the1
litter is collected by maintenance crews, then approximately 2 percent of
all glass beverage containers are unrecovered each year. This would re-
sult in a net litter component of 120,000 tons of glass in 1972.
With increased public awareness of litter and laws being enacted
in states that tax beverage, containers, it is likely that the litter com-
ponent will decline over the next 2 decades or at least remain at the
current level. Thus, we assumed that 2 percent of all beverage containers
produced each year will remain on the ground as uncoilectc-d 1.itter. This will
result in 156,000 tons per year of litter in the waste stream by 1980.
All of this glass container litter will be diverted from household waste
since it is the result of consumer purchases and the net waste discards
from households will be reduced as shown in Table 29.
TABLE 29
HOUSEHOLD WASTE GENERATION OF GLASS CONTAINERS
(In Thousand Tons)
Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Total Household 9,998 10,956 12,223 12,223 12,223
Litter 120 136 156 156 156
Net Discarded
From Homes 9,878 10,820 12,069 12,069 12,069
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Future glass container waste generation will continue to be mostly
from households. Household waste generation will decrease slightly from
81.6 percent in 1972 to 80.7 percent in 1980, as nonreturnable containers
come into more widespread use in commercial establishments (as a percent
of total containers). Total waste generated from households will increase
from 9.88 million tons in 1972 to 12.07 million tons in 1980 and 1990 as
shown in Table 30.
84
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OO
Ln
TABLE 30
GLASS CONTAINER WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE. 1972-19901/
1972 1975
Tons Tons
(000) Percent (000) Percent
Households 9,878 81.6 10,820 81.3
Commercial and
Institutional 2,008 16.6 2,245 16.9
Industrial 214 1.8 242 1.8
Total 12,100 100.0 13,307 100.0
1980 1985 1990
Tons Tons Tons
(000) Percent (000) Percent (000) Percent
12,069 80.7 12,069 80.7 12,069 80.7
2,611 17.5 2,611 17.5 2,611 17.5
276 1.8 276 1.8 276 1.8
14,954 100.0 14,954 100.0 14,954 100.0
_!/ With Litter deducted from the' totals.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
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GLASS CONTAINERS RECOVERABLE FROM WASTE
The quantity of glass containers recoverable from waste was
determined by assuming that only the population within Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (SMSA's) as defined by the Bureau of Census would be large
enough to sustain glass recovery from waste. In 1972, 68.6 percent of the
total population of the United States resided in SMSA' s ..is.' This percent
has been increasing as more areas are added to the SMSA and the population
continues to locate in urban areas. The National Planning Association
projects SMSA population to increase to 70.5 percent by 1980, and assuming
that trend continues, it should be 71.7 percent by 1990.*
We have assumed that 68.6 percent of the household waste is
potentially available for collection and resource recovery, i.e., that
amount that occurs within SMSA's. Commercial, institutional and industrial
waste is estimated using employment in metropolitan areas. The percentage
of commercial and institutional employees in SMSA's was '73.6 percent in
1970, and the percentage of agriculture, mining and manufacturing employment
in SMSA's was 64.3 percent. Assuming that waste generation is.proportional
to employment, these ratios were used to develop the potential waste recovery
in these areas. We also assumed that these percentages will increase in
proportion to the total population in the SMSA. A summary of these percent-
ages are shown below in Table 31. Using the Table 31 ratios, the projected
waste generation within the SMSA from 1972-1990 was calculated (Table 32).
TABLE 31
WASTE GENERATION IN SMSA'S AS A PERCENT OF ALL WASTE
Source 1970 1972 1975 1980 1990
Household 68.2 68.6 69.3 70.5 72.7
Commercial and
Institutional 73.6 74.0 74.8 76.1 78.4
Industrial 64.3 64.7 65.4 66.5 68.5
Source: Midwest Research Institute based on National Planning Association;
U.S. Bureau of Census .- Industry of Employed Persons by Metro-
politan and Nonmetropolitan Residence, 1970.
Note however, that while urbanization is continuing, the growth of
suburbs has been rapid while central cities have declined. Whether
the trend will continue is not known. However, the population con-
centration in urban areas will likely continue in the future.
86
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TABLE 32
GLASS.CONTAINER WASTE GENERATION IN SMSA'S. 1972 TO 1990
1990
. 8,770
2,045
185
Total 8,390 9,335 , 10,680 10,850 11,000
Source
Household
Commercial and
Institutional
Industrial
1972
6,775
1,480
135
(In Thousand
1975
7,498
1,679
158
Tons)
1980
8,509
1,987
184
1985
8,645
2,020
185
Source: Midwest Research Institute
GLASS CONTAINER RECYCLING FORECASTS, 1972 TO 1990
Current Recycling Practices and Separate Collection
Glass recycling has always_been practiced by the glass industry
since a certain percentage of waste glass added to the glass furnace im-
proves the operating efficiency through reduced fuel consumption and improved
melting time. Normally, cullet (waste glass) use is 10-20 percent of the
glass batch. Cullet is usually available from off-specification bottles
rejected from.the bottle forming machines and from other scrap within the
glass plant. Multiplant companies will often ship from a plant that produces
excess cullet to one that is dificient. Some purchases may be from external
sources. These may be from bottling plants or from cullet dealers. It is
estimated that about 100,000 tons of cullet were purchased from sources out-
side of glass plants in 1972.
The ideal material is the in-plant scrap, since it is of known
quality, is color sorted, and is free of dirt, organics and metal contaminants.
The best source of purchased cullet is beverage bottling plants since the
cullet is color sorted and of generally good quality. Most of the purchased
cullet is .broken containers from bottling operations or rejects from re-
turnable bottle washing operations. Glass container manufacturers may pur-
chase the cullet directly from the bottler and return it to the glass plant
in drums or other containers on the same truck that delivered the glass
bottles; or they will purchase from cullet dealers that buy from the bottlers.
This latter source of cullet is declining as bottling operations
increase their efficiency and process fewer returnable containers. Cullet
87
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dealers are a declining source of glass because of the high cost of labor
and the rarity of good quality cullet. Many resort to hand sorting the
colors which is extremely expensive. There were less than 20 dealers in
1971, and they have declined in number further since then.—'
A second source of purchased cullet is public volunteer collection.
This source resulted in the collection of close to 700 million containers
Q O / '
in 1972, equivalent to 175,000 tons of glass.— This program was begun '
in recent years and has been a cooperative effort of the members of the
Glass/Containers Manufacturers Institute who have agreed io accept this
glass at 90 plants.
Because cullet quality is the lowest of all sources of purchased
glass, volunteer collection programs are viewed as an interim step to the
recycling of glass from municipal waste. The glass manufacturer needs the
material color sorted, reasonably clean and free of caps and neck rings.
The housewife, Boy Scout and any other concerned citizen who collects the
containers for recycling in the home or from roadside cleanup projects
may allow occasional metal cans, cups, paper, plastics,, rags or wood to be
included with the.glass. When collection from voluntary collection programs
was small, the glass plants could cope with these tramp materials. When
volunteer collection is substantial, mechanical clearing systems should
be used at glass plants to upgrade the quality of the incoming cullet.
Owens Illinois, whose Charlotte, Michigan, plant purchased over
42 million pounds of glass in 1972, found it necessary to develop a cullet
processing system in their facility. The system is designed to handle
22 tons of cullet per hour. The cullet flows to a bottle crusher before
being conveyed to three vibrating screens which segregate the materials
by size. The facility also includes a vacuum system to remove aluminum,
wood, paper, plastics and rags and a magnet to remove iron. If this system
is successful, the company may install it in other plants.2£' ..
The future of recycled glass from source separation systems is
limited. Sources of cullet from dealers and bottling plants are reduced
by the decline in returnable beverage and milk containers. Consumer col-
lection systems are limited by the degree of interest of consumer groups
to collect and return the containers to a collection center. There is
some evidence that this source is leveling off now. Collections in 1971
were nearly the same as 1972 at 691 and 692 million units respectively.
Some moderate growth is anticipated to 1980, but it will remain level beyond
this time as municipal resource recovery systems are developed and imple-
mented. By 1975, 180,000 tons per year will be recovered from volunteer
collections. This will increase to 230,000 by 1980. Purchased cullet is
expected to decline to 80,000 tons by 1975 and 50,000 by 1980 (Table 33).
88
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TABLE 33
GLASS CONTAINER WASTK AVAM.AKLI;: I.N SMSA'S, 1972 TO 1990
(In 'I'housand Tons)
1972
Waste Generated
In SMSA's 8,390
Less volunteer
collection
175
Less cullet dealers 100
Net waste
8,115
1975
9,335
9,075
1980
10,680
1985
10,850
1990
11,000
> 250 \ 250
10,400
10,600
10,750
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Recovery of Glass Containers from Mixed Municipal Waste
It is apparent that if any significant recycling of glass is
to be.achieved, it. must come from resource recovery systems in major .
metropolitan areas. A total of 8.1 million tons of glass containers in
1972 are available within the SMSA's and this will increase to 10.4 mil- -
lion tons in, 1980.
Glass from a resource system may be recycled by selling it as
cullet for use by glass container manufacturers as a substitute for raw
materials (soda ash and sand). Recovered glass may also be used as a
raw material in other products such as glass wool, terrazzo, bricks, or
road paving mixtures. "" These latter uses do not require a stringent
specification glass except for terrazzo.
The recovery of glass in any form is highly dependent upon the
method used to dispose of the solid waste, since the glass fraction must he
separated from the organic and other inorganic materials. If mixed sol. id
waste is to be processed, it requires a system to first reduce the sizv of.
Certain marketing difficulties exist here too. On the one hand, the
amount of cullet generated is too low to make much of a contribution
to road paving material requirements; on the .other hand, the other '
uses are very low volume and specialized in comparison to the tonnage
of container cullet generation.
89
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the waste followed by separation to remove the organic materials and magne-
tic separation to remove the ferrous metals. Additional separation tech-
niques will be necessary to remove aluminum, other metals, stones and pottery,
before a good quality glass container cullet fraction can be produced.
Thus, recovery of glass from mixed municipal waste will be part
of a total recovery system which will use the organic fraction as fuel or
will separate inorganics for recovery and recycling. Recovery of glass ; •••*'"
will be an "add-on" feature, since the waste material could be disposed of
in a landfill rather than separated to remove the glass.
At the present time, there are no commercial systems in operation
to recover glass from mixed municipal wastes. Perhaps the closest system
is the Franklin, Ohio, Environmental Control Complex. This system .includes
separation of the organic fraction, consisting primarily of paper and plas-
tics which is used in the manufacture of roofing felt and separation of
magnetic iron for sale to steel companies. An experimental glass and
aluminum classification system is now being operated at Franklin.
The Franklin, Ohio, plant consists of a hydropulper which reduces
the waste in particle size to less than 3/4 inch in a liquid medium.
The oversized material is withdrawn from the hydropulper and the iron
removed by magnetic separation. The remaining oversized material which
consists of about 80 percent glass, along with aluminum, iron, rock, por-
celain and organics, is processed through an experimental glass recovery
system. The glass recovery system consists of a furnace to burn off the
remaining organics^ an air classification system to remove the aluminum,
and an optical system to separate the glass into amber, green, and flint
fractions. It is anticipated that this system will produce a product
good enough to use as cullet in glass container furnaces. The glass is
being shipped to Owens Illinois in Toledo, Ohio, where it will be evaluated.
The glass recovery of this system is estimated at about 55 per-
cent of the glass fraction in the waste. Since it is still experimental,
it is expected that the rate of recovery will increase as improvements
are made in the system. An additional 25 percent of the glass is lost as
fines in the fiber recovery system. An air classification system could
increase the recovery by removing the glass from this fraction, but at the
present time, this is not planned.
There are other systems which could possibly recover glass.
These are: the Garrett Research .process, the CPU 400 energy recovery pro-
cess, and the U.S. Bureau of Mines Incinerated Wastes recovery process.—'
The Garrett process is designed to recover salable heating fuels, glass,
and magnetic metals. The waste is shredded and air classified to remove
the inorganic glass and metal fractions. The glass can be recovered via
90
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a froth flotation process as a v/ei-y fine, highly pure noncolor sorted
glass. A Garrett pyrolysis plant is under construction, ,in Southern
California that will have a glass recovery unit.
The U.S. Bureau of Mines Incinerator Residue Recovery Process
is designed to recover iron, nonferrous metals and glass from incinerator
residues. The system consists of a series of screening and shredding
operations designed to reduce the material by size and separate. The
ferrous metals are removed by magnetic separation and the glass is removed
by a high density magnetic separator which separates the colored from the
colorless glass.
Dry recovery systems have not been tested in commercial opera-
tion. One difficulty of recovery of glass from dry recovery processes is
that in shredding dry refuse the glass shatters and produces nonuniform
particles and "fines." Recovery must then rely on a media separation
process and recovery of glass in noncolor sorted form. Until this technology
advances, the recovery of color sorted glass from dry shredding will be
limited and relatively inefficient.
We conclude that recovery of glass from municipal refuse is not
commercial at the present time. Although there are experimental systems,
the quality of the glass which will come from these units can only be esti-
mated. However, the technology for producing a recyclable glass fraction
is developing. Glass recovery technology will be tested in the next few
years and commercial glass recovery systems should be available for re-
source recovery installations by the early 1980's.
Recovery Forecasts for Glass Containers
The future of the recovery of glass will depend upon the quality
of the glass available from resource recovery systems and the economics
of recovery of various grades of glass. The economics of recovery will
include not onlv the process, but also the transportation to the user
(which could be significant) and the price which the user is willing to
pay.
The largest market for glass recovered from mixed municipal
waste would be as cullet for glass container manufacturing plants. How-
ever, high quality material will be required since present standards require
color sorting into flint, amber, and green glass that is free from organics,
magnetic metals, refractory inorganics, and nonmagnetic metals. A limited
amount of material which is being used in test batches has been available
from resource recovery systems.
91
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Because of the current lack of waste glass from resource re-
covery systems, the glass companies have not been able to evaluate the
quality of cullet to see if it could be accepted in glass furnaces. If
a good quality cullet is available, they estimate they can use at least
30 percent cullet in their furnace operation. There is als6 the possibil-
ity that the glass plants may add facilities to upgrade cullet at the
manufacturing plant such as the experimental unit at Owens Illinois'
Charlotte, Michigan, plant.
Markets may be developed for lower quality glajs, but most of
these have included experiments with higher quality cullet, available
from manufacturing plants or from volunteer collection groups. Develop-
ment of secondary glass product markets does not appear to be something
that will take place rapidly because of the specialized nature of the end
uses to which glass is adaptable.
The economics of any glass recovery system will be important.
Presently and for the forseeable future, cullet must compete with the raw
materials of glass manufacture which are primarily soda ash and sand.
These are readily available raw materials with known deposits in the United
States of more than 100 years' supply (although there have been reported
shortages of soda ash recently.because of a shortage of industrial capacity
to produce and ship this material). The cost of these materials should
not increase any faster than the wholesale price index for all commodity
materials. Current estimates are that the glass container manufacturers
could pay about $20 per ton for a "specification" cullet. The transporta-
tion costs which could be significant, must be subtracted from this figure.
The cost of shipping the glass from Franklin, Ohio, to Toledo, Ohio, a
distance of about 200 miles, is estimated at $10 per ton. It is possible
that with larger volume shipments, the rate would be reduced to about $7
per ton. Thus, if a glass plant is too far from the resource recovery
center, the transportation costs could be a real economic barrier to using
the glass as cullet. Glass plants are not uniformly located in the USA;
thus in some regions, shipping costs would preclude recycling.
Considering all these factors, forecasting the amount of glass
that will be recycled in the future becomes largely a matter of judgment.
Although we have predicted the installation of 12 centralized resource
recovery systems by 1980, and 60 systems by 1990, it is doubtful that all
of these will be recovering glass without some form of external economic
incentives.
92
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We have made our glass recovery forecasts based upon the
following judgments:
1. That technology now in the experimental and demonstration
stage will be commercialized to make waste glass available in a quality
that can be used as cullet by glass manufacturing plants. It will be
color sorted into flint, amber, and green fractions. It will also be a
lower quality than cullet from internal operations.
2. Economic incentives will be provided to stimulate the use
of cullet by glass manufacturers or recovery systems will be subsidized
directly or indirectly by the recovery of other components of solid waste
in centralized waste recovery operations. This is under the assumption
that soda ash will not be in short supply in the future.
; 3. Glass recovery from mixed waste is dependent upon processing
of other components of the waste stream for recovery in central facilities.
In addition, only 30 percent of these facilities will be located within
economic shipping distance of glass container plants. Thus, glass recovery
systems will be installed for about 30 percent of the total mixed waste
tonnage processed for recovery of all kinds (as summarized in Chapter II).
The mechanical efficiency of recovery systems will be: 0.55 in 1975;
0.60 in 1980; 0.65 in 1985; 0.70 in 1990.
4. Other uses for waste glass of a lower quality in secondary
products will be developed on a very limited basis in locations where glass
plants are remote and transportation would be prohibitive.
The recovery of glass for recycling from mixed waste is summarized
in Table 34. We estimate that four plants will have glass recovery systems
on-stream in 1980; 11 plants in 1985; 18 plants in 1990. (Glass recovery
from mixed waste will pass from experimental and demonstration status after
1975, so we have estimated no commercial glass recovery system installed
by 1975.) The total mixed waste processed for glass recovery will rise
from 1.6 million tons in 1980 to 10.2 million tons in 1990. Based on the
glass content of mixed municipal waste and the mechanical efficiency of
glass recovery systems, we calculated that glass recovery will be 100,000
tons in 1980; 350,000 tons in 1985 and 600,000 tons in 1990.
A summary of all glass waste recovery (overwhelmingly glass
containers) is shown in Table 35. Only 1.8 percent of the total available
glass waste will be recovered in 1975; 2.3 percent in 1980 and 5.0 per-
cent in 1990. On the basis of glass container waste generated in SMSA's
only, the recovery percentage will be: 1975, 2.9 percent; 1980, 3.5 per-
cent and 1990, 7.7 percent. Our estimate of actual glass recovery is rela-
tively low, especially in comparison with some of the other materials
evaluated in this study. However, on the basis of the above assumptions,
the reocvery forecasts appear to be realistic.
93
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TABLE 34
GLASS RECOVERY FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total .Mixed
Waste Generated.
130,000.
140,000
160,000.
180,000
200,000.
Total
Glass Waste
(Generated
13,200
14,500
16,400
16,600
16,900
Total Glass
Container Waste
Generated
12,220
. 13,440
15,110
15,110
15,200
Percent
Of Glass
In Waste
10.1
10.5
10.3
9.3
8.4
Number of
Resource Recovery
Plants Recovering
Glass
none
none—
4
11
18
Total Mixed
Waste
Processed
For Glass
Recovery
none
neg.
1,650
5,800
10,200
Total
Glass
Available
In Processed
Waste
none
neg.
170
540
860
Recovery
Efficiency
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
Glass
Recoverv
--
. ioi'
100 .
350
600
I/ Except three demonstration units under EPA demonstration grants
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 35
SUMMARY OF GLASS CONTAINER RECYCLING. 1972 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Category
Total Waste Glass
genera tedi/
Glass Recovery:
Volunteer collection
Gullet dealers
.Waste recovery plants
Total
1972
13,220
175
100
--
275
1975
14,500
180 .
85
. 10
275
1980
16,400
225 1
50 f
100
375
• 1985
16,600
250
350
600
1990
16,900
250
600
850
Net Waste Glass • ,
Disposal 12,925 14,225 16,025 16,000 16,050
Percent Recovery for
Recycle:'
Of total . 2.8 . 1.8 2.3 3.6 5.0
Of container glass
generated in SMSA's 3.3 2.9 3.5 5.5 7.7
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
I/ Includes noncontainer glass.
95
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CHAPTER VI
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR FERROUS METALS TO 1990
SUMMARY
Total ferrous metals in mixed municipal waste will increase from
11.1.. million tons in 1972 to 16.4 million tons in 1990. Excluding bulky
wastes, 6.4 million tons were generated in SMSA's in 1972 and 11.7 million
tons will be generated in SMSA's in 1990.
The demand for steel cans will increase from 5.6 million tons
in 1972 to 6.1 million tons in 1990, indicating mature markets for most uses.
On a unit basis, this is 65.7 billion units in 1972 to 84.3 billion units
in 1990. Beverage can growth will be high, but will be predominantly in
aluminum and plastic, rather than steel.
In addition, major household appliances and other bulky items
accounted for another 1.8 million tons of ferrous metal waste in 1972 and
will rise to 2.9 million tons in 1990. Of this, 1.2 million tons were
in SMSA's in 1972 and 1.9 million tons will occur in SMSA's in 1990. On
a source basis, about one-third of all appliances are discarded directly
from households, and the remainder are discarded from commercial establish-
ments.
The recovery of ferrous metals in waste will be closely tied to
the installation of centralized waste processing facilities. Ferrous
metals can be readily removed and upgrading carried out to meet steel
scrap specifications. In general, the recoverable steel scrap in mixed
municipal waste can be recycled1 in steelmaking furnaces, scrap exports,
or in copper precipitation, and iron foundries. The "contamination"
levels from tin, lead and copper (in cans) would be too low to inhibit
recovery and recycling per se since the absolute amounts are relatively
small. Technical limitations do not appear to be a significant factor in
recovery and recycling of ferrous metals.
In addition to recovery of ferrous metals from large centralized
resource recovery systems, there will be some recovery from separate
"front end" magnetic separation systems at landfills, transfer stations and
the like. Almost all steel scrap recovery will take place in SMSA's
because of the population density required to justify recovery systems.
MRI's forecasts of recovery of ferrous metals to 1990 are sum-
marized in Table 36.
96
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TABLE 36
SUMMARY OF FERROUS METAL RECOVERED.FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE
1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Recovery From 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Volunteer collection, .
incinerator residue,
magnetic separation . . 68 153 180 205 220
Centralized recovery system 0 127 395 1,450 2,815
Appliance processing 2 5 15 60 100
Total 70 285 590 1,715 3,135
Ferrous waste generated
Total U.S.A. 11,100 11,700 13,100 15,200 16,400
: SMSA's (nonbulky only) 7,585 8,110 9,220 11,495 13,600
Recovery-as a percent of
' Total ferrous waste 0.6 2.4 4.5 11.3 19.1
Ferrous waste in SMSA's 0.9 3.4 6.2 14.4 22.5
Source: Midwest Research Institute forecasts.
The recovery of ferrous metals from mixed municipal waste and
appliances for recycling of all types will rise from 70,000 tons in 1972
to 3.2 million tons in 1990. This will be a rise from 0.6 percent of
available waste ferrous metal in 1972 to 19.1 percent in 1990. After 1980,
recovery at centralized waste processing plants will dominate and will
account for 87 percent of total recovery by 1990. Most of the recovered
metal will go to steel furnaces and blast furnaces.
RECOVERY OF FERROUS METAL CANS AND MISCELLANEOUS METAL WASTE
Introduction
In 1972, 76 billion metal (steel plus aluminum) cans were used.
The metal can was developed over 160 years ago and now finds its widest
use in packaging food and beverages. Most perishable foodstuffs can be
stored in cans for long periods of time and still retain the basic color,
flavor and nutritional value of the fresh product. These factors, along
with its low cost and resistance to damage, have been the reasons for its
97
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success. The "convenience" of the can, combined with unbreakability,
lightweight and easy-open tops, has also made it a popular container for
soft drinks and beer which have been the fastest growing end uses for cans.
In one decade,beverage cans increased from 22.3 percent of the total can
output to 49 percent (on a unit basis)."' -
Metal Can Demand by Market. 1962 to 1990
1 The demand for metal cans (steel plus aluminum) has been increas-
ing at a rate of 4.7 percent per year since 1962 and reached a level of
76 billion units in 1972. Demand for cans will increase at 3.3 percent
per year through 1980, to a level of 98.8 billion units; Beyond 1980,
growth will be at a relatively modest 1.7 percent per year and demand for
117.1 billion metal cans will be achieved in 1990 (Table 37).
. TABLE 37
METAL CAN DEMAND, 1962-1990
(In millions of cans and thousand tons)
End Use
1972^
1975k/
Metal (tons)
Steel
Aluminum-
Total
5,993
6,246
5,805
813
6,618
Sources: a/ Can Manufacturers Institute
, b_/ MRI estimates.
*/ Includes aluminum ends for cans.
1980k/
7,249
1990k/
Soft drinks
Beer
Food
Aerosols
General
packaging
Total
1,651
9,075
31,412
1,042
4,980
48,160
15,600
21,600
31,300
2,800
. 4,700
76,000
19,200
26,500
31,500
3,200
4,700
85,100
24,600
33,500
32,000
4,000
4,700
98,800
30,000
44,500
.33,000
4,900
4,700
117,100
8,015
98
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Nearly all of the growth in recent years has been in soft drink
and beer containers where ,metal cans are'increasing their share of these
markets at the expense of returnable glass containers. This growth rate
will slow during the rest of this decade as the decline in returnable
glass containers stabilizes, as plastic containers come onto the scene, and
as soft drink demand increases at a slower rate. By 1980, beer ,-nd soft
drink cans will amount to 58.8 percent of all metal cans (Figure 23).
Soft drinks: Demand for metal soft drink cans expanded rapidly
from 1.65 billion units in 1962 to 15.6 billion units in 1972. The pull-
tab can has been credited with the success and widespread consumer accept-
ance. During this period, metal cans increased their share of the packaged
soft drink market from 6 percent to 34 percent.
Metal cans will continue to increase their share of the packaged
soft drink market, reaching 42 percent by 1980 before declining slightly to
41 percent by 1990 as the all-plastic beverage containers capture much of
the growth in the packaged soft drink market. Demand for metal soft drink
cans will increase at 5.9 percent per year to a level of 24.6 billion cans
by 1980. Beyond 1980 as the growth in soft drinks matures, cans will in-
crease at 2.3 percent per year to 30.0 billion in 1990 (Table 37).
Beer: Metal cans have been the preferred container for the beer
consumer. Cans have increased from 37.1 percent of the packaged beer
market in 1962 to 58 percent in 1972. Demand for metal cans increased at
9.0 percent per year during this period from 9.1 billion units in 1962 to
21.6 billion units in 1972.
The consumer's preference for the lightweight "easy open" can
will continue as it increases its share of the beer market to 63.5 percent
in 1980 and 65.5 percent in 1990. The growth rate will begin to slow as
the decline in the returnable glass container levels out. Growth will be
at a rate of 5.6 percent per year to a level of 33.5 billion cans in 1980
and then at 3.1 percent per year to 44.5 billion in 1990 (Table 37).
Food: Food containers have been the largest single outlet for
metal cans. There has been no growth in this market with 1962 demand of
3'1.2 billion containers almost the same as the 1972 demand of 31.4 billion
units. Declining demand for canned fruits and juices, evaporated and con-
densed milk, lard,-shortening and coffee have been offset by increased
demand for baby foods and formula, vegetables, juices and pet foods. These
patterns should continue in this stable market and demand will increase
slightly to 32.0 billion cans in 1980 and 33.0 billion in 1990 (Table 37).
Aerosols: Aerosols have been a small but rapidly growing market
for metal cans. They are widely used to package household cleaning and
polishing chemicals and personal care products such as hair sprays.
99
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rAerosol 2.2%
r-Gen Pkg 6.2%
V r Aerosol 3.7%
Gen Pkg 4.8%
r Aerosol 4.0°,:
1962
48.2 Billion
1972
76.0 Billion
1980
98.8 Billion
Source: Can Manufacturers Institute 1962
MRI Estimates 1972-1980
Figure 23 - Metal (Steel plus Aluminum) Cans Market Share (Percent), 1962-1980
-------
Demand has grown at 10.5 percent per year from 1.04 billion containers in
1962 to 2.82 billion in 1972.
A lack of new product innovations, coupled with increasing mar-
ket saturation, will reduce the growth to 4.4 percent per year to 1980
when demand will be 4.0 billion containers. Growth to 1990 will be 2 per-
cent per year reaching a level of 4.9 billion units (Table 37).
',
General packaging: General packaging includes paint, oil, anti-
freeze and a host of miscellaneous can markets. Demand in 1972 at 4.7
billion containers is slightly less than the 1962 demand of 5.0 billion
units. Although miscellaneous uses have grown during this period, they
have been offset by a decline in oil and antifreeze cans and relatively
little growth in paint cans. Oil cans were replaced by fiber-foil cans in
1963 and 1964 and have remained at that level. Metal antifreeze cans are
being replaced by plastic containers.
Demand is projected to remain at the present level of 4.7 billion
units through 1990 as plastic containers begin to replace paint cans and
continue to replace antifreeze containers (Table 37).
Metal Can .Demand by Type of Metal
Technology: Metal cans have been in use in the United States
for over 160 years,. but until recent years they were nearly all manufactured
from tin-coated, cold-rolled steel called black plate. This can is a three-
piece system consisting of two ends and a body which are formed and soldered
with a lead-tin solder. Many of the cans are enamel coated to increase
their resistance to corrosion.
Until 1960, the tin plated steel can ruled supreme in the can
industry. There were some products, e.g., oil, which were packaged in a
coated black plate can. These cans were developed during World War II
when a shortage of tin developed. These cans, which are caulked, are
limited to use in markets where pressure or vacuum are absent and corrosion
is not a problem.
The development of the aluminum can and the installation of can
manufacturing equipment by beer companies spurred the can manufacturers
and steel companies into research for new and lower cost methods of produc-
ing cans from steel. Working with the steel industry, American Can and
Continental Can, the two largest can manufacturers, developed their own
processes using a new tin-free steel that was 15 to 20 percent lower in
cost than tin plate. This product was essentially black plate steel with
a chromium metal-chromium oxide treatment to render the surface chemically
101
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inactive long enough for an enamel coating to be applied. American Can
chose to commercialize a three-piece cemented side seam (Miraseam^) and
Continental Can commercialized the three-piece can with the welded side
R
seam (Conoweld ). Tin-free steel gained rapid acceptance in the beverage
industry and now accounts for 42 percent of steel beverage cans. Ends
for food cans and other canned .products,are .also produced from tin-free
steel which can be used in any market where an enameled coating will be an
adequate protective coating. .
The future of tin-free steel is highly dependent upon American
Can Company and Continental Can Company since they are the only firms to
have commercialized the technology for using tin-free steel in three-piece
can bodies. Continental Can has publicly stated that all of their sol-
dered beverage can lines will be phased out within 5 years and American
could well do the same.i^' None of the other can manufacturers have
chosen to license the technology of Continental or American.
There are two recent developments which will bear upon the future
choice of can stock. These are the development of the two-piece drawn and
ironed steel can and QAR Steel. • ' .
1
In their pursuit of lower costs, the can manufacturers are eval-
uating QAR (Quality as Rolled) steel. This material is black plate that
has been double-reduced, and annealed but not cleaned, lubricated, or
chrome-coated. This material is lower in cost than tin-free steel because
fewer processing steps are needed. It must be enamel-coated soon after
manufacture since it does not have the corrosion protection of tin-free
steel.
Another recent technological development is the two-piece drawn
and ironed steel can which, if successful, could compete with the aluminum
can. This can will weigh approximately 25 percent less than a comparable
three-piece can and have the same features as the aluminum can.
At the present time, it must be manufactured from electrolytic
tin plate. The tin is claimed to provide lubricity during the ironing
step and this increases the speed at which:the cans are manufactured. Tin-
free steel can only be drawn to a length equal to its diameter or the
ironing step will break the chromium coating and allow metal corrosion to
take place. Current research efforts are.directed at using black plate
or QAR steel and indications are that this technology could be commercial
by 1977.
The two-piece drawn and ironed steel can are now commercial, but
the volume is small. National Can and American Can have installed lines
to manufacture these cans and one of their initial customers was Schmidt's
brewery in Philadelphia.i^ii/
.102
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It is likely that the drawn and ironed steel can will be pushed
by the smaller can manufacturers since they have not chosen to license or
commercialize the cemented or welded three-piece can. Although American
Can and Continental Can have constructed can lines to manufacture their
three-piece proprietary systems, they are also building plants to produce
two-piece -^^-
Markets : The new developments in can manufacturing technology
in the past 5 years gives several options when additional canning capacity
is needed. Essentially, fabrication choices will be between a two-piece
can and a three-piece can. Several types of metals and methods of manu-
facture will also be available. These choices are:
* Three-piece can -
- soldered electrolytic tin plate
- welded tin-free, QAR or black plate steel
- soldered tin-free, QAR or black plate steel
- caulked black plate
* Two-piece drawn and ironed can -
- aluminum
- electrolytic tin plate
- black plate
The ultimate choice made by canners will depend upon the competi-
tive economics in the particular markets for which the cans are being manu-
factured.
MRI's forecast of the present and future demand for cans by type
of metal shows that aluminum and tin-free steel or black plate will become
the predominant containers at the expense of tin plate. (Table 38) Tin
plate containers will decline from 48.3 billion units in 1972 to 38.3
billion in 1980. Tin-free steel or black plate will nearly double during
this period to 32.4 billion units while aluminum will triple by 1980 to
28.1 billion units. .
Beverage: Steel .cans used for beer accounted for 14.7 billion
containers in 1972 but will decline to 14.0 billion by 1980 (as aluminum
displaces steel on a percentage of total market). The steel cans will be
103
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mostly manufactured from tin-free or QAR steel with two-piece drawn and iron
steel cans becoming a factor by 1976. Initially they will be manufactured
from tin plate, but developing.technology will permit use of QAR or black
plate steel.
TABLE 38
METAL CAN DEMAND BY TYPE OF METAL
(Millions of Cans)
1962 1972 . 1975 1980 1990
Tin Plate
Tin-Free Steel
Black Plate
Aluminum Cans
Total 48,162 76,000 85,100 98,800 117,100
46,662
--
1,500
: NA •••••
48,300
16,400
1,000.
10,300
43,600
23,600
17,900
38,300
32,400
28,100
28,700
45,600
42,800
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Aluminum receives some preference for beer cans because the "taste
threshold" for aluminum in the beer is higher than for iron. The trend to
the two-piece cans will continue as the large breweries install their own
can manufacturing lines and the can manufacturers begin producing aluminum
cans to counter this move.
Tin-free or QAR steel wiH continue to increase its share of the
soft drink markets as the three-piece soldered can lines are phased out.
There will be a trend to the two-piece drawn and ironed steel can as manu-
facturers develop this system to compete with the welded and cemented
three-piece cans of Continental Can and American Can.
There is less incentive to use aluminum in soft drink cans since few
soft drink canners are large enough to install their own lines economically.
Thus, as we project to 1980, aluminum will increase its share of the bever-
age can market from 25 percent in 1972 to 42 percent in 1980, mostly in beer
cans. Tin-free or QAR steel will increase from 42 percent to 47.5 percent
and tin plate will decline from 33 percent to 10.5 percent by 1980 and be
completely out of beverage markets by 1990 (Table 39).
Food and general packaging: Tin plate is the preferred metal
for the manufacture of food cans because the properties of tin help pre-
serve and protect the quality of many canned foods. It is expected that
104'
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tin plate will continue to be the metal for most canned foods. Many of
the canners have their own can manufacturing plants producing the three-
piece soldered cans and will be unlikely to invest in new technology unless
significant cost savings are indicated.
TABLE 39
BEVERAGE CANS DEMAND BY TYPE OF METAL
(In billions of units)
Type Can and Use 1972 1975 - 1980 199Q
Beer:
Aluminum Cans 6.9 12.5 19.5 31.0
Steel Cans 14.7 14.0 14.0 13.5
Total 21.6 26.5 33.5 44.5
Soft Drink:
Aluminum Cans 1.6 3.0 5.0
Steel Cans 14.0 16.2 19.6
Total 15.6 19.2 24.6 30.0
STEEL BEVERAGE CAN DEMAND. BY TYPE OF METAL
(In billions of units)
Type of Steel 1972 1975 1980 1990
Tin-Free Steel 15.6 20.8 27.0 37.5
Tin Plate Steel 13.1 9.4 6.6 —
Total 28.7 30.2 33.6 37.5
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Aerosol containers have historically been tin plate because of
the strength needed for the high pressure contents. Continental Can has
recently constructed a tin-free steel line to produce 3 million aerosol
cans a year.I2I/ It is expected that all of the aerosol growth will be
in tin-free or QAR steel.
105
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Other markets such as aerosols and paint are relatively small
and not expected to grow much. It is anticipated that current practices
of using steel cans will continue at about the same level.
STEEL CONSUMPTION IN CANS*
The manufacture of cans produces scrap from cutting ar1 forming
operations (approximately 1 percent of input weight for the body of a
three-piece beverage can). There are no public data sources that accurately
indicate the amount of metal consumed in the manufacture of steel cans.
The American Iron and Steel Institute reports shipments of tin plate, black
plate and tin-free steel for metal can manufacturing. This does not re-
flect changes in inventories at the can plants, which are significant, nor
does it include imports which are purchased by can plants. The Department
of Commerce reports shipments of steel contained in the finished cans but
does not include the amount of scrap which is generated.
We have determined the amount of aluminum and steel required in
can manufacturing by combining estimates for finished cans with estimated
scrap rates. This results in a metal "consumption" of 6 230,000 tons of
steel and 575,000 tons of aluminum in 1972 (Table 40). This is the input
metal required for the years designated. Tin plate will be declining and
tin-free or black plate steel will be increasing. By 1980, tin-free steels
will have increased to 35 percent of all steel from 19.5 percent in 1972.
TABLE 40
CAN MANUFACTURE METAL INPUT QUANTITY
(In thousands of tons)
Type of Metal 1972 1975 1980 1990
Tin Plate 5,000 4,655 4,206 3,475
Tin-Free Steel
1,649 2,266 3,317
! Black Plate
Total Steel 6,230 6,304 6,472 6,792
Aluminum: cans 350 613 938
Aluminum: ends 225 225 225
Total All Metal 6,805 7,142 7,635 8,417
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
* For discussion of aluminum consumption in cans, See Chapter VII.
106
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Table 41 separates metal demand into net metal in finished cans,
ends and fabricating scrap. The scrap is currently recycled through de-
tinners for use as steel furnace scrap or copper cementation, while the
finished cans eventually become post-consumer solid waste. The total steel
in cans (output) will rise from 5.59 million tons in 1972 to 6.11 million
tons in 1990.
TABLE 41
METAL IN FINISHED CANS AND FABRICATION SCRAP FROM CAN MAKING
(In thousands of tons)
1972 1975 1980 1990
Cans & . Cans & Cans & Cans &
Ends^/ Scrap^ Ends Scrap Ends Scrap Ends Scraf
Tin Plate 4,473 527 4,159 496 3,755 451 3,093 382
Tin-Free Steel 930 90 \ Q 2,050 216 3,019
Black Plate 187 23 ' '
Total Steel 5,590 640 5,659 645 5,805 667 6,112 680
Aluminum Cans
and Ends 403 172 587 251 813 350 1.137 448
Total all
metals 5,993 812 6,246 896 6,618 1,017 7,249 1,128
a/ Total metal finished can at 10.3 percent scrap rate for steel cans and
30 percent for aluminum.
b/ Scrap from can manufacture recycled to detinners or steel scrap dealers;
aluminum to remelt operations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Tin-free steel, black plate. QAR: An estimated 1.02 million tons
of tin-free steel and an additional 210,000 tons of black plate were used
to manufacture cans in 1972. The tin-free steel finds its greatest use in
the manufacture of beverage cans in the Conoweld® and Miraseam® processes.
QAR steel, which is tin-free steel without the chrome coating, and black
plate steel are being evaluated for use in beverages. We project that
tin-free steel with the chrome coating will begin to decline after 1975
as QAR becomes accepted for beverage manufacturing. The two-piece drawn
and ironed steel can manufactured from black plate or QAR steel will be
commercial technology after 1975. Prior to 1975, these cans will be made
107
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of tin plate, but the industry will convert to black plate as the technology
is developed. Thus, by 1980 tinless plated steel will increase to 2.27
million tons.
Using the scrap rates given in Table 41, it was estimated that
net use in cans for tin-free steel was 930,000 tons and for black plate.
187,000 tons in 1972. This will increase to 2.05 million tons of tin-free
steel by 1980 and 3.0 million tons in 1990 (Table 41).
Tin plate: Electrolytic tin plate estimated at 5 million tons
in 1972 will decline to 4.2 million tons by 1980. Tin plate is and will
continue to be the largest volume steel used in can manufacturing. Al-
though it will be completely out of beverage' markets by 1990, it will re-
main as the preferred metal for foods. Scrap rates were estimated at 8
percent for beverage cans and 11 percent for all other uses. Net tin
plate used in finished cans (exclusive of scrap) was estimated at 4.47
million tons in 1972 and will decline to 3.1 million tons by 1990 (Table 41).
FERROUS METAL WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE
Waste Generation - Steel Cans
Metal cans are used to package consumer, commercial, institutional
and industrial products. They are manufactured, filled and shipped to a
retailer. The consumer purchases the container, uses the product and dis-
cards it to the solid waste stream. Almost all cans are discarded within
a year after manufacture, and in many cases, it may be immediately after
purchase or within a matter of days.
It is possible that some food products, paint cans or other items
may be in inventory at the producer or consumer level or are diverted for
use as a general purpose container in the home for more than a year. This
quantity is assumed to be small and the net withdrawal from the waste stream
each year would be insignificant so we have not considered it to be a factor
in waste generation.
Assuming that 100 percent of the metal cans appear as solid waste
and litter within 1 year after they are purchased or manufactured, the re-
sulting waste generation will be 5.59 million tons of steel. This is pro-
jected to increase to 6.11 million tons of steel by 1980.
Steel cans w:'ll appear as waste from households and apartments
as a result of their use by the consumer and from commercial and institutional
establishments as the result of over-the-counter sales of beverages; purchase
108
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of food by restaurants and institutions; vending machine use; and use of
oil cans by service stations. industrial container waste: are primarily.
cans from vending machines and industrial chemicals and cleaners.
Waste generation for cans by source by various end uses was
estimated (Table 42). About 83 percent of cans appeared as houseaold
waste, 16 percent were generated from commercial and institutional sources
and ,1 percent from industrial waste in 1972.
. TABLE 42
STEEL CANS. WASTE GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1972
(In thousand tons and percent)
Commercial/
Institutional Industrial
Tons Percent Tons Percent Tons Percent
Household
Total
Tons
Food
Beer
Soft Drink
Aerosol
General
Packaging
2,576
713
595
225
525
83
90
80
90
75
528
79
149
20
140
17
10
20
8
20
Total
4,634
82.9
916
16.4
5
35.
40
2
_5
0.7
3,104
792
744
250
700
5,590
Source: Midwest Research Institute,
Food: An estimated 17 percent of the canned goods for food
are used in commercial and institutional establishments which purchase
large size cans. Although the trend to eating out continues to increase
its share of the food dollar (21.5 percent in 1972),iP-i/ much of this is
in fast food franchises that use fewer cans because of the narrow product
line. Therefore, we do not anticipate any change in this ratio in the
future.
Beer: A study by American Can gives estimates that in 1967, 80
percent of the packaged beer (cans and bottles) was sold off-premise and
the balance on-premise through restaurants, taverns and other establishments
licensed to sell the product..21/ On-premise sales amounted to 1.2 billion
cans equivalent to 9 percent of all beer cans produced in that year and
while the total in 1958 was only 800 million cans, the ratio of beer cans
sold on-premise had declined from 10.4 percent.
109
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With the addition of the beer purchased in cans by various insti-
tutions, we have estimated that 10 percent of all beer is consumed from cans
in commercial and institutional 'establishments and 90 percent consumed in
the home. This ratio should not change during the next 2 decades with
decreasing use at institutions being offset by some growth in taverns.
Soft drinks: It is estimated that 20 percent of the canned soft
drinks are sold through commercial establishments and institutions. A
\
recent survey indicated that 2.8 billion soft drink cans were sold through
vending machines in 1972.22.' This is equivalent to 17.5 percent of all
canned soft drinks. Additional sales of canned drinks which are sold over
the counter by restaurants and taverns will increase the volume through
commercial and institutional establishments to 20 percent of all soft drinks
in cans. Most of the vended products in industrial plants are returnable
glass and very little is in cans.
It is projected that soft drinks in cans sold through vending
machines will amount to 3.9 billion units in 1980 or 16 percent of the
soft drink can market.— The share of cans in commercial and institutional
establishments is estimated at 19 percent in that year.
Aerosols: Nearly all aerosols are consumer products. We have
estimated this market at 90 percent household, 8 percent commercial-insti-
tutional and 2 percent industrial. Personal product aerosols are used in
beauty parlors and by office workers. Cleaning and polishing preparations
are used to clean institutions and offices. A small amount of aerosols
are classed as industrial products and include oils, greases, spray paints
and cleaners. There are no trends in this area that would change the
ratios for 1972 in the future.
General packaging: These products are estimated at 75 percent
household, 20 percent commercial-institutional and 5 percent industrial.
About 50 percent of the oil and antifreeze cans are sold through retail
outlets to the consumer and the balance through gas stations. Paint cans
are used largely by consumers; industrial firms purchase paint in larger
sized pails. This ratio is not anticipated to change.
Steel Cans in Litter
Numerous litter surveys conducted by groups throughout the
country have identified the beverage container as the principal metal com-
ponent of litter. The only comprehensive study concerning litter was
published by Research "'riangle Institute in 1972.—' This study estimated
that 1,637 million cans were discarded as litter in 1969. This is equiva-
lent to 2.5 percent of all metal cans produced and 5.7 percent of all
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beverage cans. Assuming that about 50 percent of the litter is recovered
by maintenance crews and other litter pickups, we estimate that unrecovered
litter is about 3 percent of all beverage cans. This would result in a
litter component of about 46,000 tons of steel in 1972.
With increased public awareness of litter and laws being enacted
which tax nonreturnable beverage containers, it is likely that the litter
component will decline over the next 2 decades. Assuming that 2 percent
of the beverage containers produced each year will remain on the ground as
litter, this will result in a litter factor of 32,000 tons in 1975, 36,000
tons in 1980 and 40,000 tons in 1990.
NON-CAN FERROUS METAL IN MUNICIPAL WASTE
In addition to ferrous metal cans there are a variety of other
ferrous metal products found in municipal waste. This includes small
appliances, tools, nails, hardware, wire, toys, paper clips, etc. Thus,
the ferrous metal cans are almost always associated with other metal pro-
ducts in waste. An example of a representative compositional analysis of
a magnetic waste fraction separated from mixed waste is given in Table 43.
TABLE 43
MAGNETIC SEPARATION ANALYSIS FROM MIXED WASTE
Classification Weight Percent Ferrous Only
Nonmetallies 5
Ferrous Materials (other than cans) 38 40
Can Metal 57 60-/
Iron 53.5
Aluminum 1.7
Lead 0.5
Tin 0.2
Organic Coatings 1.1
Total . 100 100
a/ Ferrous metal is 94 percent of can metal.
Source: "Technology Review," May 1972, p. 40.
Ill
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Thus, can metal in solid waste is presently about 60 percent of
total ferrous metals. Because ferrous metal cans are forecast to grow
very slowly to 1990, we believe that the can fraction of total ferrous
metals in waste will decline steadily because other ferrous metal products
will have higher growth rates than cans. As a consequence,,we have fore-
cast that non-can ferrous metals will increase from 40 percent in 1972
to 43 percent in 1975; to 48 percent in 1980 and 55 percent 1990.
TOTAL FERROUS METAL WASTE GENERATION. 1972 TO 1990
Using the previous estimates of non-can wastes, we can calculate
the total ferrous metals in mixed municipal waste from our forecasts of
can demand. This is incorporated in Table 44, which shows ferrous metals
in municipal waste from all sources. v
TABLE 44
FERROUS METAL IN MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Source and Type 1972 1975 1980 1990
Cans:
Households 4,604 4,650 4,770 5,020
Commercial/
Institutional
Industrial
916
5,560
3,705
935
40
5,625
4.245
958
42
5,770
5,315
1,OLO
45
6,075
7,425
Total cans
Other Ferrous Metal
Total Ferrous Metal 9,265 9,870 11,085 13,500
Litter (unrecovered) 30 32 36 40
Percent cans (excluding
litter) 60 57 52 45
Source: Midwest Research Institute
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FERROUS METAL RECOVERABLE FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE
Ferrous metal recoverable from municipal waste was determined
by assuming that the population base and density of SMSA's was the minimum
from which significant recovery could be practiced. The basis of recover-
able tonnage was developed in Chapter V. Using the previously calculated
allocation of household, commercial/institutional and industrial waste to
SMSA's, the recoverable ferrous metal was calculated. In this case, non-
can waste was allocated to the waste sources in the same ratios as can
waste (see Table 45):
TABLE 45
FERROUS METAL WASTE GENERATION. SMSA'S 1972-1990
1990
9,815
1,770
65
(In thousand tons)
Waste Source
Household
Commercial and
Institutional
Industrial
1972
5,260
1,133
42
1975
5,655
1,225
45
1980
6,460
1,400
50
Total*/ 6,435 6,925 7,910 11,650
§_/ Excludes litter.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
FERROUS METAL RECYCLING FORECASTS. 1972 TO 1990
Current Steel Can Recycling Practices
The steel industry has always been the largest recycler of scrap
(on a tonnage basis) in the country, consuming close to 85 million tons of
scrap in 1972 for the manufacture of steel and foundry products. However,
the source of the steel is 60 percent home scrap (scrap generated in the
mill), 16 percent purchased prompt industrial scrap (steel purchased from
fabrication plants), and 24 percent obsolete scrap (scrap available from
obsolescence, e.g., equipment, automobiles, etc.).±2^.'
The only other significant use for steel scrap outside of the
s'teel industry is for copper precipitation which consumes 510,000 tons
per year (principally can scrap and cans from solid waste). Shipments of
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steel for the manufacture of metal cans in 1972 was previously estimated
at 6.23 million tons of which an estimated 0.71 million tons (11.3 percent)
were recycled. The greatest amount (0.64 million tons) was can p'.ant scrap
from the can manufacturing process. This was recycled through dctinners
to the steel and copper industry after the tin was removed. The balance
was from post-consumer waste recovery (Table 46).
TABLE 46
STEEL CAN RECYCLING, 1972
(In Thousand Tons)
Post-Consumer Wastej*/ Can Plant Seraph/ Tjotal
Copper Precipitation
De tinning 4f 640 705
Steel Manufacture
Ferroalloys
Total 68 640 708
Source: &/ Office of Solid Waste Management Programs, EPA.
b/ Midwest Research Institute estimates.
In 1972, approximately 50,000 tons of post-consumer scrap was
shipped to the copper industry in the West (Montana, Utah, Arizona). The
source of the scrap included incinerator residue from Chicago, Illinois, and
Amarillo, Texas; post-consumer cans collected from local scavengers and
private waste haulers located near shredding plants; and from selected
cities that recover steel by magnetic separation of their municipal solid
waste. The copper industry requires that the scrap be shredded and have
a high surface to weight ratio. Most of the post-consumer scrap is shredded
by Proler Steel in Houston, and Los Angeles By-Products Company in San Francisco,
California, who ship directly to the copper industry.
Approximately 15,000 tons of post-consumer cans are recycled as
the result of voluntary collections. These cans were used by the steel
mills (11,000 tons) and detinners (4,000 tons).^^' This tonnage is equi-
valent to about 300 million beverage cans which is much less than the Ii2
billion aluminum cans collected in 1972. The small amount of steel can
collection is a result of the economics. Aluminum companies can pay $0.10
per pound or more for all aluminum cans while steel cans command less than
$0.01 per pound.*
Recently the price has gone up to $0.15 per pound.
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The recovery of steel from post-consumer steel cans in 1972 is
assumed to be all from within the SMSA's since it was from Incinerator
residue, volunteer collections, and magnetic separation plants. The avail-
able steel can waste in these areas in 1972 was 3.860 million tons. The
recovery of 68,000 tons results in a recycling rate of only 1.8 percent of
the available steel can post-consumer waste in 1972. This will leave a
potential for resource recovery of 3.79 million tons.
i'i
It is apparent that if any significant recycling of metal cans
is to be achieved, it must come from resource recovery systems in major
metropolitan areas. Volunteer collections will be limited to concerned
environmental groups since the hand segregation costs far outweigh the
price received for the steel cans, and no growth beyond today's level of
recovery is projected for volunteer collections.
Recovery of Ferrous Metals for Recycling From Mixed Municipal Wastes
The recovery of steel cans and other ferrous metals from municipal
waste is dependent upon the technology to recover and upgrade the steel,
the economics of recovery, the quality of the recovered steel, and the
development of markets for the steel. An unresolved question concerning
ferrous metal recovery is whether the market will develop before the recovery
systems are established or whether incentives will be needed to stimulate
new uses for the recovered ferrous fraction.
The technology for recovering ferrous metals from mixed municipal
wastes is well developed. This can be accomplished by magnetic separation
of shredded municipal waste or by incineration of the total refuse followed
by separation of the metal fraction from the incinerated waste. The first
system is most likely to be the favored technology.
Magnetic separation: The most promising method for recovery of
steel metal cans is magnetic separation of ferrous metal from shredded
municipal waste. This technology has been proven to be successful and
there are several systems throughout the country recovering cans by this
method (e.g., St. Louis, Missouri; Houston, Texas; and Madison, Wisconsin).
Recovery of the ferrous materials is a relatively simple opera-
tion. Most of the processes are dry systems where the incoming solid waste
passes through a shredder, such as a hammermill, to reduce the material in
size. The waste is then conveyed to a magnetic separator which removes
the ferrous fraction by electromagnetism. This fraction is a relatively
dirty material and must be upgraded through air classification, washing,
and possibly incineration to remove organic material and a secondary shred-
ding (or densification) for changing to dust or steel fumes. In St. Louis,
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the air classification step takes place after shredding followed by magne-
tic separation and densi-f ication (these steps produce a clean scrap). Some
more sophisticated processes plan to separate heavier ferrous f actions
from the light can fraction so a relatively pure can metal will be obtained.
Although most of the processes are dry, the Franklin, Ohio, ex-
perimental plant uses a wet system. The incoming waste is slurried in
a water system and reduced in size in a hydropulper. Future plans call
for removal of the heavier fraction from the hydropulper oefore magnetically
separating the lighter can fraction.
. Ferrous metals can be recovered from municipal waste with exist-
ing technology. Economics will probably be the limiting factors in the
future recovery of ferrous metal since shredding is the largest portion
of the cost of the recovery of the ferrous fraction. Thus, recovery of
ferrous metals from mixed wastes will not occur unless a municipality
decides to reduce their waste in size by shredding. Shredding will be
practiced in communities where landfill capacity is limited or where re-
source recovery systems are installed. Once these decisions are made,
the cost of magnetic separation is incrementally very low.
The recovery of ferrous metals is a simple, relatively low-
cost operation once the decision has been made to shred the waste. The
quality of the steel from simple magnetic separation is too low for use
in many markets without some method of upgrading. However, with densifica-
tion to improve quality, the steel may be used for copper cementation,
steel manufacture by addition to the blast, basic oxygen or electric steel
furnaces or for ferroalloy and iron foundry production.
Incinerator residue recovery: The other method for recovering
metal cans is incinerator waste recovery presently being practiced in
Amarillo, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Chicago, Illinois; Melrose Park,
Illinois; Stickney, Illinois; and Tampa, Florida.±Q±' The metal waste is
separated and shipped to commercial shredders for sale to,the copper in-
dustry or sold directly for use in ferroalloy production.
The composition of incinerated waste will vary with temperatures
of the incinerator. At temperatures from 1000°F to 1400°F, the characteris-
tics of ferrous material is only slightly altered. Below 1400°, aluminum
may be oxidized, but generally is not melted and separated from the ferrous
fraction.^/ At temperatures of 1400°F to 2000°F, practically all the
aluminum is melted off and/or oxidized. Some tin is removed from the
tin plate by oxidation or alloying with other nonferrous metals, but most
of the tin is absorbed into the steel and cannot be removed after this
occurs. .Copper may also be absorbed into the steel. If the temperature in
the incinerator reaches 3000°F, there is complete alloying of all the metals
116
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present and any glass fuses to form a slag-like mixture over the molten
metal. It is difficult to process this slag further to r move any metals.
Most of the nation's waste incinerators operate below 2000°F and
the typical residue contains 1/2 to 1 percent copper and about a quarter of
a percent tin. These levels are too high for satisfactory use in the manu-
facture of most steels. Copper increases the hardness and the tin causes
problems during deep drawing of the steel.
Since the material cannot be detinned or readily used in steel
manufacture, its major outlet has been in copper precipitation where the
copper is not a problem; in fact it adds value to the recovery process.
The demand for incinerated scrap is greater than the availability, west
of the Mississippi, but most incinerators are located east of the Mississippi,
beyond the economic shipping range of the western copper mills. A small
amount of incinerator waste is used in the production of ferroalloys. How-
ever, only one company is known to be using it.i^'
A demonstration grant for the Bureau of Mines Incinerator Residue
.Recovery Process has been established to construct a plant in Lowell,
Massachusetts, which will recover incinerated ferrous metals.— This
system will use a series of screens and shredders to segregate the metals
from glass, paper, and other nonmetals before passing them through a magnetic
separator to remove the iron fraction. The plant is not yet in operation.
It is doubtful that incinerator residue will increase much in
importance, partly because conventional incineration will not ue used on
a higher percent of waste than it is now. Incinerator residue is high in
copper and tin, which limits its use to copper precipitation and possibly
ferroalloy manufacture. It is also one of the highest cost municipal wa^te
processing options available today and many incinerators are closing down
because they cannot conform to federal and state air pollution regulations.
The future supply of incinerator residue will be the limiting factor on its
use, rather than the development of markets.
RECYCLING OPTIONS FOR STEEL RECOVERED FROM MIXED WASTE*
Copper precipitation: The copper industry presently consumes
over 500,000 tons per year of light gauge ferrous scrap. The current
market is supplied by 260,000 tons of detinned steel, 50,000 tons of post-
consumer can scrap; and 190,000 tons of other steel scrap.
* A discussion of trends in the demand for ferrous scrap in iron and steel
production is included in Appendix A.
117
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Demand is projected to increase to over 900,000 tons per year by
the early 1980's.—'* Because of the projected decline in tin plate used
to manufacture metal cans, the can plant scrap available to det.,.nners will
decline in the future. Thus, the additional 400,000-ton increase during
the next decade will have to come from recovered municipal waste or from
other steel sources. The most logical source would be recovered can scrap
from municipal waste since this material has_ a broad surface area and a
low density which is desired by the copper industry. By the middle 1980's,
an additional 400,000-ton market in copper precipitation will exist for
waste from municipal recovery systems.
Steel mills: The largest potential market, for recovered steel
from municipal waste would be as scrap in the steel industry—as a substi-
tute for iron ore in the blast furnace or in the basic oxygen and electric
furnaces. It is estimated that in 1972, 34 milliou tons of iron and steel
scrap were purchased by the steel industry for use in the manufacture of
steel. If all post-consumer can scrap available in the SMSA's in 1972
were recovered, it would only represent 11.4 percent of the scrap now used
by the industry. Experiments by the steel industry have shown that the
fraction available from a single magnetic separation needs further pro-
cessing before it can be used in the steel mill. The density is too low
and must be increased from 40 pounds per cubic foot to 75 pounds per cubic
foot,which can be done by a densifying shredder.
At the present time, none of the steel mills are using recovered
municipal can scrap on a continuous basis since it has not been available
in commercial quantities. The St. Louis resource recovery plant ships
densified ferrous scrap to the Granite City Steel Company (a division
of National Steel), where it is being used in the blast furnace. (Milling
of the waste after magnetic separation increases the density of steel from
40 pounds per cubic foot to 75 pounds per cubic foot and separates an
aluminum-rich fraction which may be processed to recover aluminum.) National
Steel is feeding different percentages of scrap metal to the basic oxygen
furnace to determine its impact on the finished steel. At the time of this
report, no test results had been made public by the steel mill.
The American Iron and Steel Institute Committee of Tin Mill Pro-
ducts Producers has stated that recycled cans could make up about 5 percent
of the scrap charge to the basic oxygen furnace.— Since the scrap charge
represents about 30 percent of the total charge, this will be equivalent
to 1.5 percent of the total steel produced or a potential demand of 3 million
tons per year. It is also possible to replace up to 5 percent of the iron
ore in the blast furnace with scrap steel cans. However, as previously
New techniques in copper precipitation are being tried which may eliminate
the need for scrap steel also.
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stated, the recovery limits for cans are about 3.9 million tons, of which
about 80 percent is tin plate. Thus, despite the period!; proclamations
from the steel industry that tin "contamination" of steel could be a
problem, it is doubtful if this is a real technical limitation to can
recycling. The remaining non-can steel, which is not tin plated, could
be used without technical limitations.
Ferroalloys: Another potential market for ferrous scrap is for
the production of ferroalloys. Presently, Union Caibide at Sheffield,
.Alabama, is using incinerator scrap from Atlanta, Georgia, for producing
f erroalloys.i^- They have used this scrap for 10 percent of their iron
requirements and found that no problems exist. Since this industry uses
close to 500,000 tons per year of iron based ore, this represents a poten-
tial market of 50,000 tons per year, if the 10 percent level is the limit.
Foundries: The foundry industry uses approximately 8.4 million
tons of iron scrap and 6.6 million tons of steel scrap per year. This
represents a significant potential for the use of recovered municipal
•metal scrap. These foundries are dispersed throughout the country ar.d
.should be within economic shipping distance of potential resource recovery
-systems. Unfortunately, cast iron is much more sensitive to certain alloy-
ing elements than steel and so great care must be exercised in controlling
impurities. Experimental data on the use of recycled can scrap in produc-
tion of cast iron or steel are not available. The American Iron and Steel
Institute has contracted with Professor John Wallace of Case Western Re-
serve to conduct studies on the use of metal cans in gray and ductile
foundry applications. Atlas and Phoenix Foundry in San Francisco have
agreed to assist in this study by conducting production melting experiments.
Although it is a possible market, it will remain speculative until experi-
ments are completed. In addition, foundry output is not a growth sector
of the. ferrous metals industries.
Detinning: Steel cans could possibly be recycled by processing
them through detinning operations to remove the tin and lead. This would
produce a good j,iade of scrap steel for recycling to the steel mills.
Commercial detinners process close to 700,000 tons of steel per year, re-
moving the tin and selling the clean steel in the form of No. 1 bundles at
the going price. The tin is recovered and sold for about $4,000 per ton.iP-2/
Detinners shred the material and remove the tin by addition of
hot caustic soda and sodium nitrite. The chemical reaction forms sodium
stannate which is removed and electrolyzed to recover tin. The detinner
is limited by the economics of the process and the price of steel and tin.
The price of the steel scrap is usually based on No. 1 scrap and the price
of tin is fixed by the imported tin price. The detinning costs besides
equipment and labor are primarily the chemicals required to remove the
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tin. Ideally the detinner would like a scrap that has a good surface
area and is high in tin. Impurities,-on the material increases the cost
of the chemicals and separation o.f the .tin becomes more difficult.
One of the biggest problems limiting the use of recovered cans
is the aluminum lids, from beverage cans. Caustic soda attacks aluminum
preferentially to tin, producing aluminum oxide which has no value. It
also evolves hydrogen which can be explosive if aluminum is present in
high concentrations. Aluminum substantially increases the cost and makes
the detinning.process less attractive. If steel cans become available in
larger quantities, technology may be developed so that the economics of
detinning are much more attractive. At the present time, it is a marginal
outlet for recovered steel cans, especially post-consumer scrap.
Conclusions
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn concerning
the future o.f ferrous metal and steel can recycling:
1. The technology exists for recovering a relatively high quality
ferrous fraction from municipal waste recovery systems. Conventional
shredding and magnetic separation equipment will produce a fraction contain-
ing approximately 90 percent iron. Further processing such as low tempera-
ture incineration to remove organics, air separation to separate heavier
metals, secondary shredding to increase density and a final magnetic sepa-
ration to remove aluminum will produce a good grade of steel scrap.
2. Magnetic separation of iron from municipal wastes will be
practiced in municipalities that install a system for size reduction of
their wastes prior to incineration, energy recovery, materials recovery
or landfill. Once the decision has been made to further process the waste,
magnetic separation can be added for a low incremental cost. Additional
processing steps, e.g., air classification and densification to increase
the quality of the steel will increase these costs somewhat.
3. Additional upgrading will be necessary to penetrate potential
markets. Copper precipitation could potentially use. an additional 400,000
tons per year during the next decade. The recovered scrap will require
low temperature incineration to remove organics and nonmetallics after
magnetic separation.
Additional shredding and densifying followed by a second magnetic
separation should remo\ .: aluminum and make the steel competitive with other
scrap for steel manufacture. If 5 percent of the scrap charge could be
metal cans, a potential market of over 3 million.tons per year would develop.
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4. Ferroalloy and iron and steel foundry markets are speculative
and will require additional evaluations before they can be considered po-
tential markets. Detinning of the waste does npt appear to be economically
feasible under present conditions. If the price ;pf tin and No. 1 scrap
increase significantly (as scrap prices did' in 19,73), this .could be a poten-
tial market in the future.
1: K .'•!'?. t-.-'JlT •"••-*ii V-'* * -''^' ?T';J--. •'.'-i'; {•' • . -
5.. The recpyery of ferrpus metal from municipal waste recovery
systems will develop slowly and potential markets will depend upon the
"* ; ' ••.•a tv \ ' i il-V: f. il.fi ,-iiv'Wi, ^ :!.;ji>T *; ;•,, = ;•»< -. -t '. '.-..I' . ,..,,.-- I •: > r- 5 j j t!S--f .i"< ljT
success of demonstration projects such as St. Louis to determine the effect
the cans will have on steel manufacturing. However, ferrpus metal recovery
is expected to keep pace with the installation of centralized resource re-
;.'! *r * .'• '••' '- ; - ':.'• 'H v11 •' • ' ," -: >•':•'<• "-"''>'• \;l 6 ,J •' IT'?'.; •:-;;*•} :'"*?•''r'"•'I* r*',' ••.••-*> • ';* • •-•^••""•j" •• >'» • '•
Cfiyery systems. . ' ' '"' '' " ' ' .. '
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR FERROUS METALS
Ferrpus metals will be recovered via four methods in the future..
These are: volunteer collections; incinerator residue recovery; magnetic
separatipn at transfer stations or "front end!:1 recovery systems; centralized
waste-processing systems (usually for energy recovery).
The insfa1lation of centralized waste-prpcessing systems will
be justified on the Ijasis of all recoyerable materials but the determining
factor will be the use of the organic fraction in waste for energy recovery.
This was discussed in Chapters II and lit. For the most"part, once a
!.-•'.•: - .«.:",.! !• t ,.-•,...•- :i^<. .;.;•• 'Vv • •, tf' |- «,V ,r ;.-I ,*>?•"? •'-<•' !'•'••• • :-. •-•;• •• ,(/••* * '•>-:••'••
centralized waste-processing system is installed then magnetic separation
'-.1--'- V?-rj .«• :C" i-'t'S'1"-'- ^^'L- -,V-.l,.; v:'i'J'1../ ''"' '''• '••• ^'J-™'1'1 -'-,\.. ''^'?.- V !i'-' *'lj ,'.'-T.-,:- r^' " / -r --I"'* 'I'"-'"?'' V'";r-"-. •1^.'->" ^ a',^ li'"''^''' '" "'*' '' " ' ' "''"v ' •'"
absorbed by the steel industry and exports. The waste profile for ferrous
• >-;l;.«;. ";.-<:VV !.:..' :,'W. .-•<,••'-•-'••;• '•" •'^'•'• \..'.- >»«-:• •:'•'v;'V-'•.-';', .'" ' :- 'i,S>~ " ••• V* .'•/' •'-.•'.' •.-' .'. . . •'..-.'
metals recovery is summarized in Table 47. Recovery will rise from 115,000
^'ilr/'-.u*.-i- J : *' : .-.'•'±":.\" ' ;" •'• '•• -" "-:i'>["•.";.- -f- •' L ". ' ' t •* • • •"' "".• '-1 "T ~~ • ••' -•,!-'r ,-'• s . - * «• . ; ;• .-.,-, *; ,,, ii- • • •; .*'..-.•-
tons in 1972 to 2.2 million tpns in 1990 at a mechanical recpyery effi-
ciency of 85 percent.^
.••,'-.•".:.;..-•.< ,.J... •''.•' ?;••-•.:.•-••-••:=.-
Recpyery of voluntary collection centers will not rise above
the 15,000 tons per year current fate. There is little incentive:'to' re-
cover steel cans in comparison to aluminum and waste paper.
• • ••• • rr--."-"- -"-•>'•'." >!! :• VJ-'-v; - -.:' ' • i~ •-..••"ffj.•••:K.- • • • .: f ,.*j-
Magnetic separation at transfer stations, landfills and incinerr
atp.rs will account fpr some additional recpyery. This.will require the
installation of "front end!1 systems utilizing shredding/magnetic separation.
In addition, incinerator residue systems may yield up tp 50,000 to 80,000 .
tons per year. We estimate that .1(4.facilities will be shredding and recovering
* MRI estimates, tha,t the mechanica;l efficiency of; ferrpus metal systems will
b,e in the 'Order: of: ,&5, prercent after, all upgrading steps have 'taken place.
121
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steel in 1975; 18 by 1980; 21 by 185; and 23 by 1990. Each will process
about 100,000 tons/year each of solid waste. Thus, recovery will be based
upon ferrous metal content of the waste and recovery efficiency. This
will result in recovery of 83,000 tons in 1975 (100,000 tons x 14 systems x
0.071 steel content x 0.85 recovery efficiency). Recovery will be 105,000
tons in 1980; 125,000 tons in 1985; and 135,000 tons in 1990 (Table 4&).
TABLE 47
RECOVERY OF FERROUS METALS IN CENTRALIZED PROCESSING SYSTEMS
FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE, 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Total solid waste gen-
erated 130,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
Ferrous metal in mixed
wasted/ 9,265 9,870 11,075 1.2,500 13,500
Percent ferrous
metal^ 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.8
Total waste processed
in centralized re-
covery systems Neg. 2,100 6,600 24,000 48,600
Ferrous metal content Neg. 150 415 1,705 3,315
Ferrous metal re-
covery at 0.85 re-
covery efficiency Neg. 12.7 395 1,450 ,2,815
Number of recovery
systems operating 0 5 12 32 60
§_/ Excludes ferrous metal in bulky appliances.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
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TABLE 48
SUMMARY OF FERROUS METAL RECOVERY FROM MIXED
MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons and percent)
Type of Recovery 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Volunteer collection 15 15 15 15 15
Incinerator residue 50(est.) 55 60 65 70
Magnetic separation 3(est.) 83 105 125 135
Centralized recovery
systems _0 127 395
Total recovery 68 280 575
Steel cans only^/ 47 165 305
Total recovery as a
percent of:
Total ferrous waste 0.7 2.8 5.2 13.2 22.5
Ferrous waste in
SMSA's 1.1 4.0 7.3 17.6 26.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute
a/ Based on percentages in Table 44 applied to incinerator, magnetic, and
centralized; volunteer considered to be 100 percent cans.
In summary, total recovery of ferrous metals from municipal wastes
were 68,000 tons in 1972, and will rise to 575,000 tons in 1980; and 3.0
million tons in 1990. This is 0.7 percent of ferrous metals generated in
1972, rising to 22.5 percent in 1990. We do not distinguish steel can re-
covery from all ferrous metals. However, can recovery will be proportional
to the percentage in ferrous waste or 60 percent in 1972, declining to 45
percent in 1990.
These results show that ferrous metal net tonnage in post-con-
sumer waste will increase from 9.2 million tons in 1972 to 10.8 million
tons in 1985, after which it will decline slightly.
We believe that markets will be developed readily for the fore-
cast quantities of recovered steel from municipal waste systems (3.0 mil-
lion tons in 1990). The major markets will be scrap for use in steel
furnaces and export tonnage (either directly or "freeing up" other steel
scrap for export) with copper cementation accounting for about 0.4 million
tons of the total. Thus, it can be seen that at this level of recycling
in 1990, the amount of steel scrap returning to the steel industry will be
123
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well below the capability of the industry to absorb scrap of the quality
to be expected from resource recovery systems.
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR STEEL IN MAJOR APPLIANCES TO 1990
Production. Use and Discard Cycles for Appliances
There are presently more than 350 million major appliances in
use in U.S. households, including clothes dryers, washing machines, ranges,
refrigerators, water heaters, room air conditioners, dehumidifiers, gar-
bage disposers, and freezers. Of these, the first five account for more
than 75 percent of the total steel used in appliances.
A high proportion of new appliance sales are as replacements for
discarded appliances. For all but clothes dryers, annual discards are
presently averaging more than two-thirds of the annual new sales. Future
appliance discards, then, can be projected with reasonable accuracy largely
on the basis of past appliance sales. Table 49 shows the estimated ser-
vice life associated with each of the five major r.ppliances, as developed
from three independent sources: Data published in Institute of Scrap Iron
and Steel Report No. EPA-SW-45D-72, "Identification of Opportunities for
Increased Recycling of Ferrous Solid Wastes;" an MRI survey of appliance
owners, and; an analysis of appliance retirement histories from 1950 to
1970, based on data published in the Statistical Abstract of the United
States.
TABLE 49
ESTIMATED SERVICE LIFE OF MAJOR APPLIANCES
(In years)
Estimated
Service Life Until Discard (Years) Retirement
Appliance Low High Estimated Rate
Clothes Dryer 9 30 15 6.7
Washing Machine 8 16 10 10.0
Range 18 20 20 5.0
Refrigerator 13 20 17 5.9
Water Heater 8 13 10 10.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute. Estimates based on ISIS data, appliance
owner survey, and appliance retirement histories.
124
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Projected sales and discards of new major appliances and the
'total number of each appliance expected to be in service o\/er the 1970 to
1990 period are summarized in Tables 50 through 54. In developing these
estimates, the total number of appliances in use was projected based on
historical data, and the number of discarded appliances were calculated
by assuming the appropriate service life for each (as given in Table 49).
For example, it was assumed that all clothes dryers installed in 1970
would be discarded in 1985.
TABLE 50
CLOTHES DRYERS IN SERVICE, SOLD AND DISCARDED, 1970 TO 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Number in
Service on
January 1
29.5
36.3
49.1
64.7
82.9
(In million units)
New Sales
During
Year
3.5
3.7
5.1
6.4
7.5
Number Retired
During
Year
1.3
1.3
2.1
3.0
3.7
Source:
Number in
Service on
December 31
31.7
38.7
52.1
68.1
86.7
Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon ISIS Report EPA-SW-
450-72 and Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
TABLE 51
WASHING MACHINES IN SERVICE, SOLD AND DISCARDED, 1970 TO 1990
Ifiajc.
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Numbtr in
Service on
January 1
61.2
66.9
76.6
86.8
97.0
(In million units)
New Sales
During
Year
5.7
6.3
6.2
8.3
8.2
Number Retired
During
Year
3.8
4.4
4.1
6.3
6.2
Number in
Service on
December 31
63.1
68.8
78.7
88.8
99.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon ISIS Report
EPA-SW-45D-72 and Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
125
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TABLE 52
RANGES IN SERVICE, SOLD AND DISCARDED. 1970 TO 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Number in
Service on
January 1
65.5
70.1
78.0
87.1
97.0
(In million units)
New Sales
During
Year
4.9
5.5
5.1
6.2
6.5
Number Retired
During
Year
3.2
3.9
3.3
4.3
4.5
Number in
•Service on
December 31
67.0
71.7
79.8
89.0
99.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon ISIS Report
EPA-SW-45D-72 and Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
TABLE 53
REFRIGERATORS IN SERVICE. SOLD AND DISCARDED. 1970 TO 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Number in
Service on
January 1
65.4
70.0
78.0
87.1
97.0
(In million units)
New Sales
During
Year
5.7
4.7
5.9
7.1
7.2
Number Retired
During
Year
4.2
3.1
4.1
5.2
5.2
Number in
Service on
December 31
66.9
71.6
79.8
89.0
99.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon ISIS Report
EOA-SW-45D-72 and Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
126
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TABLE 54
WATER HEATERS IN SERVICE. SOLD AND DISCARDED. 1970 TO 1990
Year
1972.
1975
1980
1985
1990
Number in
Service on
January 1
55.5
61.7
72.5
84.5
97.0
(In million
New Sales
During
Year
5.8
5.8
7.0
8.3
9.4
units)
Number Retired
During
Year
3.8
3.7
4.5
5.8
7.0
Number in
Service on
December 31
57.5
63.8
75.0
87.0
99.4
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates based upon ISIS Report
EPA-SW-45D-72 and Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
The methodology used in estimating the amount of steel available
in discarded major household appliances over the 1970-1990 period consisted
of eight steps, cs follows:
1. The five major appliances which comprise more than 75 percent
of total steel used in appliances were selected: clothes dryers, washing
machines, ranges, refrigerators, and water heaters.
2. The average life of each appliance was estimated, based on:
(a) data published in ISIS Report No. EPA-SW-45D-72, "Identification of. v
Opportunities for Increased Recycling of Ferrous Solid Wastes;" (b) a sur-
vey of MRI staff personnel; and (c) an analysis of appliance retirement
histories from 1950-1970, based on data published in Statistical Abstract
of the U.S.
3. The steel content of each appliance was estimated, using
average appliance weights from the current Sears catalog and the average
steel content reported in the ISIS report cited previously.
4. Annual data on the number of appliances in service and ap-
pliance sales during the 1950-1970 period was compiled from the Statistical
Abstract of the U.S.
5. The number or appliances in service was projected by years
for the 1970-1990 period, based on household saturation rates and extra-
polations of 1950-1970 data.
127
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6. The number of each type of appliance to be discarded by years
was estimated, assuming that discards for a given year consist of those
appliances installed X years previously, where X is the estimat jd appliance
life.
7. The total quantity of discarded steel available in each of
the five appliances was estimated from the number discarded and the steel
content per appliance.
8. An additional 30 percent was included to allow for other
appliances not considered separately (air conditioners, freezers, dish-
washers, etc.). This 30 percent was derived by estimate of the proportion
of metal in the appliances not included in the calculations of steps one
to seven.
Waste generation from appliance discards: The estimated weight
and steel content of the five major appliances is shown in Table 55. Ap-
plying these factors to the number of units discarded (from Tables 50 through
54) gives the total quantity of steel available in the discarded appliances,
as shown in Table 56. By 1990, there will be just over 2 million tons of
steel discarded in the form of the five major appliances; adding 30 percent
to this total to reflect the steel available in other major appliances
gives a total of 2.7 million tons in 1990S nearly double the 1970 amount.
Appliance waste generation by source: Commercial counterparts
.of these household appliances have little effect on the overall discard pic-
ture, with the production of commercial units amounting to only about 5
percent of the volume of household appliances.
Appliances such as washers, dryers, stoves, etc., are used al-
most exclusively in private homes. When an appliance is retired from ser-
vice by an owner, it follows one of four routes: (1) it is traded in on a
new one and the old one is hauled to the retail dealer's store for discard;
(2) it is traded to a dealer who reconditions it and sells it to someone
else; (3) it is discarded directly from the home; and (4) it is donated to
a charitable group that sells it to someone else. Those appliances used
in commercial establishments follow the same disposal routes. Thus, while
the appliance is a household use items, they are not predominantly discarded
from the home (except where they have no trade-in value whatsoever or a
dealer will not remove them because another used appliance is purchased by
the buyer).
It is not known on a national basis what the actual discard cycle
is. We estimate that about 65 percent of the appliances are discarded from
commercial/institutional establishments; about 33 percent are discarded
from the home as a part of bulky trash pickup service; and 2 percent are in
128
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TABLE 55
STEEL CONTENT OF MAJOR APPLIANCES
Appliance
Clothes Dryer
Washing Machine
Range
Refrigerator
Water Heater
Number of
MoJelsi/
17
10
26
14
25
(In pounds and percent^
Shipping Weight (lb)£/
Low
106
205
150
126
96
High
162
252
300
350
224
Average
142
229
218
289
151
)
Average
Appliance
Weight^/
128
206
196
260
136
Estimated
Steel
Content£/
91
83
89
80
80
Average
Steel
Content
116
171
174
208
109
ro
a/ Sears Catalog, Spring-Summer 1973.
b_/ Estimated at 90 percent of shipping weight.
£/ "Identification of Opportunity for Increased Recycling of Ferrous Solid Waste," Table IV-23, p.
ISIS Report EPA-SW-45D-72. No change in steel content over time was estimated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute; Sears Roebuck Catalog, ISIS Report, EPA-SW-45D-72.
110.
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TABLE 56
STEEL AVAILABLE IN DISCARDED APPLIANCES. 1970 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Clothes
Dryers
75.4
75.4
121.8
174.0
214.6
Washing
Machines
324.9
376.2
350.6
538.7
530.1
Ranges
278.4
339.3
287.1
374.1
391.5
Refrigerators
436.8
322.4
426.4
540 . 8
540.8
Water
Heaters
207.1
201.7
245.3
316.1
381.5
Total, Five
Major
Appliance s—'
1,323
1,315
1,430
1,945
2,060
Total, All
Major
Appliances—/
1,720
1,710
1,860
2,530
2,680
a/ Totals rounded.
b_/ Includes room air conditioners, dehumidifiers, disposers, freezers, and dishwashers at approximately
30 percent of tonnage of five major appliances.
Source: Midwest Research Institute calculations based on Tables 50 to 55.
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industrial establishments. .On the basis of steel content of discarded
appliances, the source of the type of waste is estimated _n Table 57. As
may be noted here, the point of discharge is not at all closely related to
the point of use of the product as ..in cans or bottles. Instead, the in-
fluence of the practice of trade-in allowances and removal by retailers
gives a discard pattern unlike the use pattern. However, the effect may
be beneficial to resource recovery since there are relatively lr:.ge ac-
cumulations of appliances in one location. Thus, large loads could be
hauled to a recovery plant or disposal site for processing. Of course,
municipalities handle bulky waste collection from residences, but their
loads are not as uniform in steel content (e.g., furniture, rugs, wood,
etc.) as an appliance store, although the situation is similar since there
is usually a common disposal site for bulky refuse.
TABLE 57
STEEL CONTENT OF DISCARDED APPLIANCES BY SOURCE. 1.972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Yeajr
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
1,720
1,710
1,860
2,530
2,680
Household
570
565
615
835
885
Commercial/
institutional
1,115
1,110
1,210
1,645
1,740
Industrial
35
35
35
50
55
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Steal recoverable from discarded appliances: Appliances are
predominantly discarded by retail stores, second hand stores and charitable
organizations. However, the concentration of tonnage must be sufficient
to justify recovery activity. As in previous materials, we estimate that
only SMSA's will produce enough flow of these wastes to consider commercial
recovery activity. The total recoverable appliance steel was calculated
en the basis of the methodology outlined in Chapter V, except that we used
only the war?te generation percentages in SMSA's for household population,
not for commercial/institutional (Table 58). (The reason, of course,
is that households get rid of the appliances, and commercial organiza-
tions only haul them axray to repair or discard them.) In addition to this,
the mechanical efficiency of recovery of shredded steel by magnetic separa-
tion is about 90 percent (slightly higher than for small pieces of steel
which can escape recovery as fine particles).
131
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TABLE 58
APPLIANCE STEEL WASTE GENERATION IN SMSA'S. 1972 TO 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
(In
Total Steel
in Appliances
1,720
1,710
1,860
2,530
2 , 680
thousand tons)
Total Steel
in SMSA's
1,180
1,185
1,310
1,810
1,950
Recoverable
in SMSA1
1,060
1,065
1,180
1,630
1,755
Steel
si/
a/ At 90 percent recovery efficiency.
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Appliance Steel Recycling Forecasts, 1972 to 1990
Very few major appliances are recovered for recycling of their
steel content, primarily for economic reasons. After appliances have been
shredded and the ferrous metal separated, the salable steel, for example,
in a 200-pound refrigerator is worth about. $2.00 at $24.00/ton scrap price.
The collection cost and processing cost is high in comparison to the value
of the steel for bulky waste—probably exceeding the value of the product.*
However, we know of no comprehensive evaluation of bulky waste recovery
in which the economics are developed in some detail.
There are three ways in which appliance steel will be recovered
in the future. They are: (1) processing at large auto bulk shredding
operations; (2) processing (shredding) at transfer stations or other special
waste accumulation points; and (3) shredding in conjunction with centralized
waste processing facility.
There is, toaay, some recovery of appliance scrap at auto shredders
but this is probably not over a few thousand tons per year. The same is true
of recovery at transfer stations. Because of the high cost of getting
bulky waste to widely dispersed processing facilities, most of it ends up
at land fills or junkyards and never is a part of the conventionally col-
lected municipal waste stream.
* See, for example, "Salvage Markets for Materials in Solid Waste," op.cit. .
p. 106.
132
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Nonetheless, as the large central processing systems are installed
and the auto shredders attempt to process more tonnage annually, a higher
proportion of discarded appliances should enter the resource recovery cycle.
Our forecasts for appliance steel recovery are tied to the in-
.stallation of central waste processing facilities from 1975 to 1990. The
forecasts are developed in Table 59. The rate of processing of appliance
steel for recovery is roughly one-fourth that of the rate of processing of
mixed municipal waste. Thus, by 1990, we forecast that 5.1 percent
of appliance steel will be recovered (from SMSA's) compared to about 25
percent of total mixed waste processed for other recovery. The processing
rate could go much higher if the logistics problems and transportation to
shredding facilities becomes more favorable than today.
This recovery will have little impact on total ferrous scrap
recycling. The forecast recovery can be readily absorbed into steel scrap
recycling mills because the recovered material would be comparable in
quality to shredded auto bulks. The decision to make investments in shred-
ding facilities will be tied partly to noneconomic factors such as shortage
of landfill space, but the logistics and processing costs are key para-
meters that will have to be worked out over time.
TABLE 59
RECOVERY OF FERROUS METALS FROM APPLIANCES. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Ferrous Metal Percent of Mixed
Recovery From Recovery as a Percent of Waste Processed in
Yeajr Appliances Total Generated SMSA's Central Facilities
0.1 0.2 neg.
0.2 0.4 1.5
0.8 1.1 4.1
2.4 3.3 13.3
3.7 5.1 24.3
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
The total ferrous metal recovered from all municipal waste
can be readily determined by adding the quantities recovered in Table 59
(for appliances) to the totals in Table 48 (for mixed waste). In 1972
total ferrous metal recovery was 70,000 tons; in 1975 it will be 0.28
million tons; in 1980, 0.59 million tons; in 1985, 1.72 million tons; in
i
133
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
2
5
15
60
100
(est.)
-------
1990, 3.15 million tons. The summary table for this chapter was included
earlier as Table 36 which gives the recovery highlights for ferrous metals
from all municipal waste sources.
134
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CHAPTER VII
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR ALUMINUM TO 1990
SUMMARY
The quantity of aluminum in mixed municipal waste will increase
from 0.9 million tons in 1972 to 2.3 million tons in 1990. Aluminum waste
is essentially equal to current demand for packaging plus aluminum in
durable goods discarded annually.
The demand for aluminum packaging will increase at the rate of
6 percent per year between 1972 and 1990, from 0.7 million tons in 1972
to 2.0 million tons in 1990. Aluminum in appliances discarded added another
62,000 tons of waste in 1972 and will double to 124,000 tons in 1990. In
1990 the packaging aluminum will consist of 0.8 million tons foil and foil
containers; and 1.2 million tons will be cans and can ends. Although the
one-trip aluminum beverage container will continue to grow rapidly and
partially displace glass and steel, aluminum beverage containers will begin
to lose market share to plastic containers after 1980. The demand for . '
aluminum cans for all uses will grow from 10.3 billion units in 1972 to
42.8 billion units in 1990 (about 90 percent will be beer and soft drink).
On a source basis, about 83 percent of aluminum packaging is dis-
carded from households, 16 percent from commercial/institutional establish-
ments, and 1 percent from industrial plants. By contrast, appliances and
household items are sent to retail stores for discard and the source of
aluminum in large appliances discarded was estimated at one-third household
and two-thirds commercial/institutional.
The amount of aluminum packaging discarded in SMSA's will rise
from 0.5 million tons in 1972 to 1.4 million tons in 1990. With the ex-
pected mechanical efficiency of recovery systems about 0.9 million tons
would be recoverable in 1990.
Aluminum recovered from municipal waste can be recycled by the
primary aluminum producers, but the alloy content of aluminum consumer
packaging in waste makes it desirable for recycling via secondary smelters.
Can collection programs will carry the brunt of the recovery methods until
about 1980. This is because the technology and economics of mechanical
recovery systems is still unproven in use and it will be several years
be'fore commercial recovery systems are in place and proven. Once mechanical
systems are avilable, can collection programs will give way to aluminum
processing at centralized units, landfills, or transfer stations. Thus,
two recovery mechanisms will be in use--mechanical separation from mixed
waste and voluntary can collection, the former becoming important about 1980.
135
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The MRI forecasts of aluminum recovery are summarized for the
1972 to 1990 period in Table 62.
TABLE 62
SUMMARY OF ALUMINUM RECOVERY FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Type of Recovery
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Volunteer can collection
Mechanical separation
Appliance processing
Total
27
0
_0
27
50
1
_0
51
80
24 .
1
80
198
2
80
425
5
105
280
510
Recovery as a percent of:
Aluminum waste generated 3.0 4.2 .7.0 14.7 22.2
Aluminum in SMSA's 5.2 7.1 10.7 22.7 33.6
The recovery of aluminum will rise from 27,000 tons in 1972 to
510,000 tons in 1990; or from 3.0 to 22.2 percent of the total waste aluminum
generation. After 1980, mechanical separation will grow rapidly, especially
at central resource recovery facilities. Most of the aluminum recovered
(over 90 percent) will go to primary aluminum producers; a small amount
could go into secondary smelting. MRI's recovery forecasts are compara-
tively optimistic for aluminum; the metals contribution to municipal waste
is very lo^ but its value is very high ($200/ton or more).
INTRODUCTION
The only nonferrous metal that occurs in significant quantities
in municipal waste is aluminum, principally because this metal has become
an important container and packaging material, used in cans, foil, trays,
etc., for a variety of applications. Other waste aluminum products add
a small amount to municipal waste.
Packaging activity in the United States has been growing at a
rapid rate over the past decade arid aluminum used in packaging is no excep-
tion. Packaging accounted for 14 percent of aluminum production in 1972
and it is expected that this figure will increase to 20 percent of aluminum
production by 1990. The principal growth sector will be aluminum cans for
beer and soft drinks.
136
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ALUMINUM PACKAGING DEMAND BY MARKET. 1962 TO 1990
Introduction
The most common uses for aluminum packaging are foil for lamina-
tion, wrapping and semirigid trays, and sheet for cans and can ends for
beverages and food. Aluminum packaging for foil and semirigid container
packages is well established and the trends continue to show that there
will be an increased use of aluminum in foil products in the future.
In recent years there has been a trend toward the increased use
of aluminum foil type packaging for reasons other than containment or pro-
tection. Special service packaging has resulted in the need for a pack-
age that will retain heat or cold for a period of time and still be strong
enough to protect what it contains; aluminum fills this need.
The growth in the use of aluminum as a packaging material has
been quite high over the past 12 years. The average annual growth rate
between 1960 and 1972 was more than 16 percent, although the growth rate
is not expected to be this high in the future.
It is expected that environmental concerns and the "energy crisis"
will tend to slow the growth in aluminum packaging some degree, but aluminum
packaging is still expected to grow at approximately 6 percent per year.
Aluminum packaging will continue to be competitive with steel, .glass, plas-
tics and paper. In fact, it will likely displace steel and glass as it
has in recent years, especially in beverage containers; only plastic bever-
age containers will capture a share of beverage "one-way" packaging in pre-
ference to aluminum.
Aluminum Cans*
Aluminum cans came .into common use in 1963 and have had a rapid
and steady growth in demand. The market penetration of aluminum reflects
several features of cans: corrosion resistence; attractively sloped and
printed; light weight; versatility in size, slope and wall thickness; no
metallic taste is transferred to "sensitive" products.
The aluminum industry, developed the aluminum "easy open" and
pull-tab opener for beer cans in about 1960. It was readily accepted and
by 1965, 70 percent of the beer cans had the aluminum pull-tab end. It is
estimated that 95 percent of the present beer cans have aluminum tops.
The details of competitive aspects of demand for aluminum cans are covered
in Chapter VI and Appendix A and are not repeated here.
137
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Unit Demand: The success of aluminum beer packaging also spurred
the development of the two-piece "drawn and ironed" aluminum can. This
can is manufactured, from thin aluminum, producing a can weighing about half
that of a steel can. It requires less metal since it is drawn from a round,
blank of metal and stretched (ironed) to the desired length. This two-piece
can does not have a side seam and can be lithographed on the entire ex-
terior of its body, providing a more attractive package for consumer eye
appeal. Growth was rapid during the latter years of the 1960 decade and ,
by 1972, aluminum cans had captured 32 percent of the beer can market with
6.9 billion two-piece drawn and -iron aluminum cans.
The total demand for aluminum cans was 10.3 billion units in 1972
and will rise to 42.8 billion units in 1990 (Table 63); most of these will
be beverage containers.
TABLE 63
ALUMINUM CAN DEMAND. 1972 TO 1990 . .
(In millions of cans and thousand tons)
Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Units:
Beer
Soft Drinks
Other types
6,900
1,600
1,800
12,500
3,000
2.40U
19,500
5,000
3,600
25,000
5,500
4,700
31,000
6,000
5,800
Total Cans 10,300 17,900 28,100 35,200 42,800
Tonnage:
Input total
Cans 350 613 938
Ends 225 225 225
Total 575 838
Scrap 172 251
Net Usage 403 587 813 980 1,137
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
138
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Packaged beer is and will continue to be the largest market for
aluminum. Demand for an estimated 6'. 9 billion aluminum cans in 1972 will
increase to 19.5 billion in 1980 when they will have captured 58 percent
of the beer can market and growing to 31.0 billion units in 1990.
At present, only 10 percent of the soft drink cans are aluminum,
with the balance made from steel. The demand for aluminum cans will increase
from 1.6 billion units in 1972 to 5.0 billion by 1980, equivalent to 20 per-
cent of the soft drink can market. By 1990, a modest growth rate will have
brought aluminum cans in soft drinks to a level of 6.0 billion units.
After 1980, aluminum cans are expected to give up market share
to plastic beverage containers, although the growth in number of cans and
tonnage used will increase steadily to 1990.
Aluminum cans have penetrated some end uses besides beverages
(5 ounce single service easy-open cans for puddings, meat, and fruit).
Although rapid growth was predicted for those markets only about 1.5 billion
were used in 1972. Growth of aluminum will be steady reaching 3.0 billion
containers by 1980, and 5.0 billion by 1990.
In addition, a small number of aluminum containers are used to pack-
age aerosols. These are generally limited to small containers because of
their higher costs. Because they are two-piece cans, they have greater
design flexibility than steel three-piece cans. Extimated at 10 percent
of the aerosol can market in 1972, aluminum is expected to increase its
share to 15 percent by 1980.
Tonnage Demand: The Aluminum Association reports shipments of
aluminum sheet for containers and packaging. Industry sources believe their
statistics to be a reliable estimate of aluminum consumed in can manufactur-
ing. However, these statistics do not document the amount shipped in fin-
ished cans, only the quantity of input metal to cans. Aluminum can stock
results in 28 to 30 percent scrap for a two-piece drawn and ironed can.*
The scrap is sent back to remelt furnaces and never really leaves the pro-
duction cycle.
An estimated 575,000 tons of aluminum sheet input was used in
1972 to manufacture 403,000 tons of cans (Table 63). Approximately 85
percent of this metal was used for all aluminum beverage cans and for steel
beverage can ends. The balance went into food products such as snack,
seafood, etc. and in oil can ends. Growth in the beverage market will more
than double metal consumption to 1.16 million tons input by 1980, which will
* Source: Reynolds Metals Company estimate.
139
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result in 813,000 tons of finished cans. Ends for steel cans are projected
to remain at the current level of 225,000 tons because of the development
of an "easy-open" steel end combined with the slower growth rate for steel
cans. Actual consumption of aluminum in the finished can is estimated at
403,000 tons in 1972 at a scrap rate of 30 percent. By 1990, there will be
1.14 million tons of aluminum in cans.
It is expected that efforts to reduce the use of one-way beverage
containers will be successful in some of the more environmentally conscious
states, e.g., Oregon, Vermont, and a few others, but it is not expected that
total demand will be significantly affected by anything short of national
legislation restricting the use of aluminum packaging materials. We did
not consider federal legislation in our forecast.
Foil Packaging
The net output of semirigid and nonrigid aluminum foil packaging
will increase from 291,000' tons in 1972 to 830,000 tons in 1990 (Table 64).
At the same time aluminum cans and ends will increase from 403,000 tons
output in 1972 to 1.14 million tons output in 1990.
Waste Generation From Aluminum Packaging
Most aluminum packaging is used by the consumer and disposed of
almost as purchased. The main reason for this is that aluminum packaging
is principally to contain a food product that will be consumed within days
or months of purchase, even if it is a frozen variety. It is fairly cer-r
tain that the package will be disposed of within a year after purchase.
In some cases (as decorative itemsX the consumer will withhold the used
container from the waste stream for one reason or another. However, aluminum
cans and foil type containers are usually disposed of immediately after use,
and retention practices of consumers are not significant enough to warrant
special consideration.
Aluminum Packaging Waste Generation by Source
Most aluminum packaging material contains products used in the
home, and a majority of aluminum packaging waste will come out of the
household. Aluminum cans and foil are used for similar application—in
home or retail food packaging that goes to the home for use. The basis
for allocating aluminum packaging waste by source was the same as that used
for steel (see Chapter VI, section on waste generation by source). The
distribution of waste is 83 percent household; 16 percent commercial/ in-
stitutional and 1 percent industrial (Table 65).
140
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TABLE 64
ALUMINUM METAL DEMAND IN PACKAGING, 1960 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Aluminum Foil Use In
Semi Rigid
Year Foil Containers
1960 27
1965 40
1970 63
1972 71
1975 95
1980 115
1985 150
1990 220
Nonrigid
Aluminum Foil
87
125
202
220
290
400
510
610
Input Metal for
Aluminum Cans
and Ends
25
94
352
291
385
515
660
830
575
838
1,163
1,400
1,625
Aluminum in
Finished Cans
and Endsj*/
18
66
246
403
587
813
980
1,13.7
Total Aluminum
Demand in Finished
Products]?/
132
231
511
694
972
,328
,640
1,967
&l Adjusted at a scrap rate of 30 percent.
b/ Note: These data do not correspond to Aluminum Statistical Review published annually by the Aluminum
Association. This source reports shipments of metal as input for containers and packaging. The
values given above have been adjusted for fabrication scrap (called "run around scrap" in the industry)
and represents shipments of finished products.
Source: Marketing Guide to the Packaging Industries, 1972 Charles H. Kline,Inc.; Midwest Research Institute.
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TABLE 65
ALUMINUM PACKAGING WASTE BY SOURCE. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
Year
Total Aluminum
Contained in
Packaging
Distribution by Source of Discard
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
694
972
1,328
1,694
1,967
Household
576
807
1,102
1,362
1,632
Commercial-
Institutional
HI
155
213
262
315
Industrial
7
10
13
16
20
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Litter: As previously estimated* we have assumed a 2 percent
litter factor for the beverage container portion of aluminum packaging.*
This amounts to 8,000 tons in 1972; 11,000 in 1975; 15,000 in 1980; 19,600
in 1985; and 22,000 in 1990.
Aluminum Packaging Waste Recoverable
/.
The values for recoverable aluminum packaging waste were calculated
by taking the amount of aluminum that is generated in the SMSA's (approxi-
mately 68 percent of total waste based on population in 1972) and applying,
the SMSA population ratio and commercial/institutional ratios of Table 31.
If all of this material were processed for recovery, the mechanical recovery
efficiency would further reduce recoverable waste (Table 69). We estimate
that recovery systems for aluminum will be about 65 percent efficient. Thus,
of total aluminum packaging waste generatedjabout 44 to 48 percent is ul-
timately recoverable for recycling.
ALUMINUM IN CONSUMER DURABLE PRODUCTS
This market sector, consisting of refrigerators, air conditioners,
ranges, dishwashers, washers and the like, contribute a significant amount
of aluminum as well as other metals to the waste stream. However, aluminum
* See Chapter V.
142
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recovery from these products is virtually nonexistent because of the pro-
cessing required to recover the aluminum from discarded appliances.
TABLE 66
RECOVERABLE ALUMINUM PACKAGING WASTE. 1972-1990
(Thousand tons)
Packaging Waste Packaging Amount Recoverable
Entering Waste Generated By
Year Waste Streamg/ in SMSA's Mechanical Systems
1972 " 686 473 305
1975 961 668 435
1980 1,312 920 600
1985 1,621 1,150 750
1990 1,945 1,430 930
a/ Less litter not recovered.
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
At the present time, there are an estimated 300 million major
appliances in use in the United States. They are being discarded at a
rate of approximately 15 million units a year and this figure is expected
to rise to 22 million units by 1980.*
The aluminum potentially available can be calculated by multiply-
ing the aluminum in each appliance by the number of appliances retired each
year. The amount of aluminum in various appliances varies from 2 to 15
pounds per unit (Table 67). The number of appliances that will be discarded
annually was partially developed in Chapter VI and summarized here with room
air conditioners and dishwashers added (Table 68). The total discards multi-
plied by the average amount of aluminum in each type of appliance gives a
value for the aluminum that would be available from discarded appliances
(Table 69).
These estimates give a general indication of how much aluminum
might be available for recovery should technology overcome processing
handicaps now preventing efficient separation of metals from various appliances.
* See Chapter VI.
143
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TABLE 67
ALUMINUM USAGE IN SELECTED APPLIANCES, 1970
(In pounds per unit)
Amount of Aluminum
Contained in Appliance
Appliance (pounds)
Room Air Conditioners 10
Ranges 2
Refrigerators 9 ,
Dishwashers 2
Washers 15
Dryers 4
Source: National Industrial Pollution Control Council, The Disposal
of Major appliances. 1971, pp. 18-19.
TABLE 68
ANNUAL APPLIANCE DISCARDS. 1972 TO 1990
Appliance
(In
1972
Room Air Conditioners 1.6
Ranges
Refrigerators
Dishwashers
Washers
Dryers
3.2
4.2
0.7
3.8
1.3
Total Discards 14.8
Source: National
Major
Industrial
Appliances,
millions of units)
1975 1980
3.0 5.9
3.9 3.3
3.1 4.1
1.3 2.1
4.4 4.1
1.3 2.1
17.0 21.6
Polltuion Control Council
1971, pp. 18-19; Midwest
1985
7.0
4.3
5.2
3.0
6.3
3.0
28.8
, The Disposal of
Research Instituti
1990
8.1
4.5
5.2
3.2
6.2
3.7
30.9
(Chapter VI).
144
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TABLE 69
. POTENTIAL ALUMINUM AVAILABLE IN APPLIANCES. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Appliance 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
,i ; •
"Room Air conditioners 8 15 30 35 40
Ranges 34345
Refrigerators 19 14 18 23 23
Dishwashers 1 12 3 3
Washers 28 33 31 47 46
Dryers 3 3 4 6 7
i Total 62 70 88 118 124
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
'Appliance Aluminum Waste by Source
Estimates were made to give waste generation by source for appli-
ances. As estimated in Chapter VI, the predominant majority are discarded
from commercial establishments because that is where appliances go after
retirement (as trade-ins). We allocated 33 percent to household and 67
percent to commercial/institutional (Table 70). Our estimate of the tonnage
available in SMSA's is also given in Table 70.
TABLE 70
ALUMINUM WASTE IN APPLIANCES BY SOURCE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Total Aluminum Commercial- Available
Year Generated Household Institutional Industrial-' in SMSA's
1972 62 19 43 neg 42
1975 70 23 47 neg 48
1980 88 29 59 neg 61
1985 118 39 79 neg 83
1990 124 41 83 neg 90
a/ Less than 1 percent.
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates,
145
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Recoverabillty of Aluminum in Appliances
At present,the only techniques for recovering metals from dis-
carded appliances are isolated incidences of secondary materials dealers
and auto shredders that "breakdown" appliances by labor intensive techniques.
The processing required to separate the metals is labor intensive and expen-
sive. Most of this potential aluminum is lost. Should the technology be
developed to efficiently separate metals in appliances for processing^recov-
ery of aluminum and other metals could take place. Technology of this type
is likely to have to be tied to shredding and magnetic removal of ferrous
fractions followed by an aluminum magnet; heavy media separation of other
mineral dressing techniques.
Aluminum Recoverable From Municipal Waste
Estimates of total waste generation from aluminum packaging and
in appliances can now be given. MRI's forecast of total waste generation
and waste available in SMSA's is given in Table 71.
TABLE 71 .
SUMMARY OF ALUMINUM WASTE GENERATION. 1972 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Source of Waste 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Packaging 686 961
Appliances 62 70
Total 748 1,031 1,400 1,739 2,069
Packaging - SMSA's 473 668 920
Appliances - SMSA's 42 48 61
Total SMSA's 515 716 981 1,233 1,520
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
146
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RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR ALUMINUM, 1972 TO 1990*
Recovery From Mixed Waste at Centralized Processing Systems
The increasing consumption of aluminum, the lack of djmestic
reserves, and the energy expenditure required for virgin aluminum production
lead to the conclusion that aluminum recovery fron municipal waste for re-
cycling will be pursued actively in the future.** Aluminum is the most valuable
single constituent of significant tonnage in municipal solid waste, and its
scrap value of $200 per ton (or more) makes it an attractive material to
separate from municipal waste. However, there are not yet any commercial
separation techniques for separating aluminum from mixed wastes.
Based upon our estimates of municipal solid waste generation,
aluminum packaging constituted about 0.5 percent of the waste in 1972
(assuming no removal of aluminum in collection centers). It will rise to
1.0 percent by 1990. At these concentrations (20 pounds per ton of waste),
a ton of waste contains $2.00 worth of aluminum at $200 per ton. As cen-
tralized waste processing units are installed, the recovery of aluminum
will be an "add on" process. Whenever technology becomes available, it will
be attractive to recover the aluminum because of its high value.
Recovery techniques are under development that would separate
highly concentrated nonferrous metals fractions. Dense media separation
and an electromagnetic separation process appear to hold the most promise
at present. We believe that efficient recovery technology t-hould be avail-
able by 1980 and then aluminum will be recovered from centralized waste pro-
cessing facilities along with other inorganics such.as steel. On this basis
we have estimated aluminum recovery from central waste processing facilities
to be 1,000 tons in 1975 and rising to 365,000 tons in 1990. It will be
1985 before these systems are fully equipped to recover aluminum.
Recovery of Aluminum Via Other Methods
Presently, aluminum can recovery is virtually the exclusive forte
of the primary metals producers and beverage makers, e.g., Alcoa, Reynolds,
Kaiser, Coors, etc., who operate consumer collection centers. The present
recovery (1972) of beverage cans is about 15 percent or 27,000 tons of the
total metal used in beverage cans. The recovery of aluminum cans at col-
lection centers has increased rapidly under the efforts of the aluminum
and beverage industries.
* Trends in scrap use for the entire aluminum industry are given in Ap-
pendix B.
** Alternately, the use of aluminum packaging might decline if recycling
does not take place.
147
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However, recovery from can collection will not grow as rapidly
in the future. MRI estimates that collection centers would reach a limit
of 140 to 150,000 tons of cans recovered per year by 1990, if p:-st trends
continued. In actuality, our estimates are that can collection programs
will peak at 80,000 tons per year as mechanical .separation at central pro-
cessing facilities and transfer stations come on-stream after 1980. To
accomplish even this goal will require that separately collected cans in-
crease by three fold over 1972.
As mechanical recovery becomes available, it will be installed
at centralized waste processing sites. By 1980, only 10,000 tons will be
recovered from central waste processing systems, but by 1990, 365,000 tons
will be recovered at central waste processing systems (Table 72).
TABLE 72
.RECOVERY OF ALUMINUM FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE AT
CENTRALIZED PROCESSING SYSTEMS. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Total Waste
Aluminum in
Generated
WasteS/
130,
000
900
140
1
,000
,200
160
1
,000
,500
180
1
,000
,900
200
2
,000
,300
Percent Aluminum 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2
Total Waste Processed in
Centralized Recovery
Systems neg. 2,100 6,600 24,000 48,600
Aluminum Content neg. 18 62 250 560
Aluminum Recovery at
.65 Recovery efficiency
(1985-1990) neg. 1 12 165 365
a/ Prior to any type of recovery at the source or other points. Includes
all aluminum in mixed waste, including appliances, packaging and non-
packaging uses of aluminum in Table 11. (Note that the total aluminum
waste is greater than that of packaging and appliances alone.)
Recovery of aluminum from mixed waste is not even technically demon-
strated on a commercial scale yet, and probably will not be until 1975. When
recovery does become feasible around 1980Jsome separation will take place at
transfer stations, landfills and incinerators using mechanical systems. Based
148
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on our recovery estimate's Cor ferrous metals, by 1980 "front end" type systems
operating at transfer stations and landfills will recover an e.-it I inn led 12,000
-,'"', 1
tons of aluminum from mixed waste. This is the amount of aluminum in about
2.2 million tons of mixed waste. By 1985, a total of 33,000 tons will be
recovered and by 1990 there will be 60,000 tons recovered. This means that
about 12 million tons of waste will be processed for aluminum recovery
(Table 73), outside of voluntary and large central processing systems.
We expect the recovery systems to be justified on their own merits
with or without recovery of paper, steel, glass or other recyclable materials.
The technology would be much the same as used in centralized waste.processing
units except that there would be no recovery of energy from the organic
fraction of waste--i.e., aluminum magnets or mineral dressing techniques
applied to previously shredded and concentrated inorganic fractions of waste.
there will be some recovery from appliances in conjunction with
shredding and special appliance processing. However, the aluminum content
of appliances is not attractive to recover because of the logistics of
appliance collection and processing and the relative difficulty of removal
of the metal by mechanical means. By 1980, 1,000 tons might be recovered
from appliances; by 1985, 2,000 tons; by 1990, 5,000 tons recovered.
The preceding figures, it is obvious, do not indicate a rapidly
stepped up program of aluminum recovery in the near future. Actual alumi-
num recovery from the municipal waste stream is expected to be under 5
percent in 1975, but will be 14.7 percent of total recovery by 1985, and
22.2 percent by 1990. This translates to 51,000 tons in 1975 and 510,000
tons in 1990 (Table 73). It should be noted that our recovery forecasts
for aluminum should be considered "optimistic" in comparison to some of
the other materials.
' These figures are, of course, somewhat speculative, since the art
of recovering aluminum from municipal waste is in its infancy and the appear-
ance of new technology, which could significantly raise the amount of
aluminum being recycled, is unproven. Nonetheless, the combined pressures
of the "energy crisis," the inherent value of the metal for recycling, and
favorable resource recovery economics will all encourgae additional recovery
for recycling.
149
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TABLE 73
SUMMARY OF ALUMINUM RECOVERY FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons and Percent)
Type of Recovery 1972
Volunteer can collection 27
Mixed waste processing 0
Centralized recovery
systems 0
Appliance processing 0
Total Recovery 27
Total recovery as a
percent of:
Aluminum waste generated 3.0
Aluminum waste in SMSA's 5.2
1975
50
0
1
0
51
4.2
7.1
1980
80
12
12
1
105
7.0
10.7
1985
80
33
165
2
280
•14.7
22.7
1990
80
60
365
5
510
22.2
33.6
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
150
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CHAPTER VIII
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR PLASTICS TO 1990
SUMMARY
The quantity of plastics in mixed municipal waste will increase
from 4.5 million tons in 1972 to 13.2 million tons in 1990. Plastic waste
is essentially equal to final product demand and consists principally of
packaging plastics. The demand for plastics in all types of packaging
. applications will increase at a rate of 6.4 percent per year between 1972
and 1990. Plastic packaging use will increase from 3.0 million tons in
• 1972 to 8.9 million tons in 1990. Almost all uses,including film and blow
molded containers, will become much more important at the expense of con-
ventional materials--glass, metals and paper. The plastic beverage con-
, tainer will become a large factor in plastic demand after 1980.
On a source basis about 84 percent of plastic waste is generated
in households; 10 percent in commercial/institutional and 6 percent in in-
dustrial locations. There will be a trend to a lower percentage in house-
hold waste by 1990, about 78 percent of the total. By 1990, this will
mean 6.9 million tons of plastics wastes will be coming out of household
and about 11 million tons each will be generated by commercial and institu-
tional establishments.
The plastics content of mixed waste will increase from 3.5 per-
cent of total waste in 1972 to 6.6 percent in 1990.
Looking at the recovery base (SMSA's) there will be 10 million tons
of plastic potentially available for resource recovery in 1990. Recycling
of post-consumer plastics will not become a significant recovery option in
the period to 1990. However, plastics in mixed waste will provide a very
good source of Btu potential for energy recovery options.
We have forecast the installation of a significant number of
centralized waste processing facilities for energy (fuel) recovery (Chapter
III). The forecasts for plastic recovery and energy use are summarized in
Table 74.
The recovery of plastics from municipal waste in the form of fuel
or energy will rise from essentially zero in 1972 to 3.2 million tons in
1990 (24.3 percent of the total plastics waste generation). This quantity
will yield 96.3 x 10^ Btu of energy'in 1990 from resource recovery systems.
The increasing use of plastics will also serve to "upgrade" the Btu content
151
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TABLE 74
SUMMARY OF PLASTICS RECOVERY. 1972 TO 1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Amount
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total Plastics
Waste Available
4,500
5,700
8,400
11,000
13,200
Total Plastics
in SMSA's
3,100
3,970
5,925
7,900
9,615
Processed
for Recovery
0
85
350
1,470
3,210
Recovery
in Energy
106 Btu
0
2,550
10,500
44,100
96,300
Recovery
as a percent
Total
0
1.5
4.2
13.4
24.3
SMSA's
0
2.1
5.9
18.6
33.3
Source: Midwest Research Institute
-------
of mixed waste because plastics .(derived from petroleum feedstocks) have
a much higher Btu content than paper, food or yard wastes at an average
of 15,000 Btu per pound of plastic.
INTRODUCTION
Plastic resins are widely used in the mauafacture of a variety
of containers, caps and closures, film, coatings, and "disposable" items.
Plastics have achieved most of their growth since World War II. The continual
reduction of costs associated with increased volume; improved technology for
fabricating and forming plastics; and low cost petrochemical raw materials*
made them competitive with the traditional packaging materials such as paper,
metal cans and glass containers.
Packaging uses accounted for 23.7 percent of the 11.8 million tons
of plastics produced in 1972 or 2.8 million tons. Packaging accounts for
half of all polyethylene produced, 21.8 percent of the polystyrene and lesser
amounts of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene '(Table 75). Non-
packaging plastics go into a multitude of products — from records, raincoats,
garden hose to appliances, autoparts, construction products etc.
TABLE 75
PLASTIC RESINS INPUT QUANTITY FOR ALL USES AND PACKAGING. 1972£/
(In thousand tons)
Resin
Polyethylene,LD 2,610
Polyethylene,HD 1,195
Polystyrene 1,840
Polypropylene 865
Polyvinyl/chloride (PVC) 2,120
All Others 3,170
Total 11,800
Packaging
Percent of PackaKing
2,796
23.7
af This is resin use which is nearly the same as finished goods output.
Source: U.S. Tariff Commission and Midwest Research Institute estimates.
At least prior to 1973 when petroleum prices were low in relation to other
natural resources.
153
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PLASTIC PACKAGING RESIN DEMAND. 1965 TO 1990
General Trends in Packaging Plastics Demand to 1990
Plastic packaging materials plus cellophane* demand grew at a
rate of 14.5 percent per year between 1965 and 1972. Demand has increased
during this period from 1.14 million tons per year to 2.96 million tons per
year (Table 76). Low density polyethylene (which is used extensively as
a film) is the largest volume resin with 1.4 million tons consumed in 1972.
TABLE 76
PACKAGING PLASTICS DEMAND BY TYPE OF RESIN. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
Reain
1965
Polyethylene LD 465
Polyethylene HD 150
Polystyrene 212
Polyvinyl Chloride 35
Polypropylene 30
Cellophane 200
All Other 50
Total
Growth Rate
Percent Per
Year
1965-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
1,142
PE-LD
1972
2,959
PE-HD
1975
3,695
1980
PS
PVC
5,300
PP
1985
7,100
Total
17.0
6.3
5.8
20.7
9.4
4.7
9.5
10.0
4.8
24.3
7.6
4.6
21.8
14.8
6.8
14.6
7.6
5.7
1990
1,398
558
401
160
119
163
160
M^M^W^H
1,713
747
527
206
178
145
179
2,275
1,150
864
288
358
125
240
3,100
1,500
1,120
360
520
100
400
3,930
1,825
1,380
450
690
75
550
8,900
Source: Midwest Research Institute Forecasts; 1965 and 1972 based on "Modern
Packaging" statistical reports for January 1966 and 1973.
Cellophane is not .a plastic,but it is included with packaging plastics
because it is a common packaging material commonly associated with
plastic films.
154
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The demand for plastics in packaging will not increase as rapidly
in the future as it has in the past, because: (1) many markets are maturing
which were developed in the past decadetand (2) a dramatic trend to higher
energy costs. Although plastics should retain their current cost competi-
tiveness with paper, aluminum, glass and steel packaging materials, marginally
profitable markets will be less actively pursued in the future by plastic
makers.
Resin demand will increase at 7.6 percent per year from 1972 to a
level of 5.3 million tons in 1980. Beyond 1980 demand will increase at 5.7
percent'per year reaching a level of 8.9 million tons in 1990 (Table 76).
Resin Use by Type of Resin
Low density polyethylene: Low density polyethylene is the largest
volume packaging resin representing 47.3 percent of all packaging in 1972.
It is used principally as a film for wraps and bags and as a coating for
paperboard. Trash bags^hich are a recent development, represent the largest
single use for low density film with an estimated consumption of 250,000
tons of resin in 1972. Food wrap and bags, garment bags, consumer goods
wraps and pallet wrap represent other large film uses. These end uses
represented a demand for 1.07 million tons of film in 1972.
Approximately 225,000 tons of low density polyethylene were used
to coat paperboard, paper and foil in 1972. Approximately half of this was
used to coat paperboard milk cartons. Future demand for coatings will be
reduced as the plastic milk container displaces in part the coated milk
carton.
The consumption of low density polyethylene will grow to a level
of 2.3 million tons in 1980 from 1.4 million tons in 1972. Much of the
growth will come from shrink films for pallet wrap, beverage packs, and
from trash bags.
' High density polyethylene: High density polyethylene is used
primarily for blow molding rigid containers used to package food and con-
sumer products. It is also used for injection molding beverage cases, pal-
lets, jars and lids, and thermoforming food containers and medical packages.
High density polyethylene for packaging has grown at a rate of
20.7 percent per year since 1965 to a level of 558,000 tons in 1972. Future
growth is projected at 9.4 percent per year to 1980 when consumption will
be 1.15 million tons. Blow molded containers for milk, medicinal and health,
and other containers, plus molded beverage cartons and pallets will continue.
155
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By 1990, 1.83 million tons of HD polyethylene resins will be consumed
in packaging uses.
Polystyrene: Polystyrene has grown at a slower rate in packaging
than other resins. Demand since 1965 has been increasing at 9.5 percent
per year, reaching a volume of 401,000 tons in 1972. Polystyrene is nearly
all injection molded--into a wide variety of boxes, trays, cups and lids,
or thermoformed into meat trays, thin-walled containers and single service
dinnerware. Expandable foams are molded into cups, boxtj, trays and pack-
aging inserts or stamped into meat trays, egg cartons and other food pack-
ages.
Polystyrene demand is projected to increase at 10 percent per
year to 1980, when 864,000 tons of resin will be consumed. Growth in exist-
ing uses and the development of institutional markets for single service
dinnerware will account for most of the increase. By 1990,1.38 million tons
of polystyrene will be consumed for packaging and "disposables."
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Packaging represents only 7.5 percent
of the total demand for PVC. PVC film is used as a wrap for fresh meat and
produce and as a shrink film for carton wraps. It is also formed into clear
rigid containers for food and consumer products where oil and oxygen resis-
tance is desired. PVC sheet is used for blister packaging of consumer items
to provide visibility for consumer products.
Consumption of PVC for packaging reached 160,000 tons in 1972
and is projected to increase at 7.6 percent per year to 1980 when demand "
will be 288,000 tons. Growth will occur in most packaging end uses except
rigid containers. Growth will be limited there because of high cost and
potential health questions raised by FDA officials for food and beverage
containers.
Polypropylene: Approximately 119,000 tons of polypropylene were
consumed for packaging applications in 1972. Its largest use is as a pack-
aging film that competes with polyethylene and cellophane for food, textiles
and a host of other markets. Injection molded hinged lid containers are
made from polypropylene as are plastic straws.
Demand for polypropylene resin will increase at 14.8 percent per
year to a level of 358,000 tons by 1980,with most of the growth coming from
film markets. The relative cost difference between polyethylene and poly-
propylene is expected to narrow in the future so that this growth rate can
be obtained.
156
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Cellophane: Cellophane,which is a cellulosic material used as
filn^is used to package baked goods, meat, tobacco, cookies and a wide
variety of foods. Demand has been declining as it is gradually replaced
by plastic films. Consumption of 160,000 tons in 1972 is projected to
decline to 75,000 tons by 1990. If other plastics (PVC) cannot be used
in food applications, the cellophane usage may not decline as much. However,
other resins may be developed to replace any markets lost in the short run
so that cellophane should decline in consumption by 1990.
Other resins: A variety of other resins account for the remaining
160,000 tons of packaging materials. Thermosetting resins for caps and
closures, vinyl acetate for coatings, cellulosics for blister packaging,
specialty film resins, and the newly developed barrier resins for rigid
containers are included. Demand will begin to increase rapidly during the
latter part of the decade as the barrier resins penetrate the soft drink
market. Consumption of the "miscellaneous" resins will increas to 240,000
tons in 1980 and 550,000 tons by 1990.
Resin Demand by End Use*
Film resins used to manufacture bags and wraps represent 48 per-
cent of all resins consumed in packaging markets and will retain this pro-
portion through 1980. Blow molded containers and miscellaneous thermoformed
and injection molded products are the other inajor end uses. These uses and
trends in demand are shown in Table 77 and discussed below.
TABLE 77
PLASTIC PACKAGING RESIN DEMAND BY END USE. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
1972-1990
End Use Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990 Growth Rate
(
Film - 1,416 1,800 2,555 3,380 4,200
Miscellaneous Packaging 641 825 1,350 1,960 2,565
Blow Molded Containers 458 610 920 1,270 1,620
Coatings 349 350 350 360 375
Closures and Caps 95 110 125 130 140
Total 2,959 3,695 5,300 7,100 8,900 6.4
Source: "Modern Packaging," January 1973; Midwest Research Institute Forecasts
* A more detailed analysis of plastic resin demand by end use and resin source
is given in Appendix D.
157
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Film: About 792,000 tons of plastic resin were used in film and
flexible packaging in 1972. By 1990,the demand will grow to 4.2 million
tons, or 530 percent of 1972 use. LD polyethylene accounts for about three-
fourths of this demand. The growth markets have been: food product pack-
aging^.g., baked goods and fresh produce; shrink wrap for pallets; trash
bags and miscellaneous packaging. While resin use for film will increase
several fold by 1990, cellophane film will decline.
Miscellaneous packaging: In 1972.a total of 641,000 tons of re-'
sin was used to produce miscellaneous packaging products. These are generally
products formed by thermoforming and injection molding--caps, tubes, boxes,,
trays, cartons, jars, tubs, pads, and blister packs. By 1990, we have fore-
cast a total demand in this category of 2.5 million tons or four times the
1972 demand. In this group)polystyrene accounts for over one-half of the
resin demand; polythylene accounts for another one-third of the resin used.
Impressive growth rates are forecast--8 percent per year between 1972 and
1990, the highest of the five end use categories in plastic packaging.
Blow molded containers: About 458,000 tons of plastic resin was
used in producing 6.73 billion containers in 1972. By 1990,output is ex-
pected to be 24.5 billion containers or 360 percent of 1972 output. In
terms of resin of all types,there will be 1.6 million tons demand for blow
molded containers in 1990. Beverages, toiletries and cosmetics, and medical
and health products will account .for over 5 billion containers each or 15.7
billion units. Most of the tonnage will be HD polyethylene (1.2 million
tons), despite the fact that barrier resins will be used to make beverage
containers.
Coatings: Plastic coatings are used oh paper products such as
multiwalled shipping sacks, paperboard milk cartons (the largest single
use), on film, and on foil. In total, there were 350,000 tons used in 1972.
Growth is not expected to be significant. The primary reason is that
this is a mature market, and also the expectation that polyethylene coated
milk cartons will partially be displaced by plastic milk containers. By 1990,
we forecast demand of 375,000 tons of resins for coatings.
Closures and caps: Plastics accounts for about 14 percent (13
billion units) of the total market for closures and caps produced annually.
Most plastic caps and closures are used on glass and plastic containers.
Both thermoplastic and thermosetting plastics are used for caps and closures.
Total demand will increase modestly in the future and will be at 140,000
tons in 1990Jwhich translates to a 1972 to 1990 growth rate of 2 percent
per year.
As shown in Table 77, the demand for all plastics in packaging
will increase from 3.0 million tons in 1972 to 8.9 million tons in 1990
158
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or 300 percent of 1972 demand. This is a- growth rate of 6.4 percent over
the 18-year period. Thus, while the "conventional" steel and glass materials
used for packaging will increase slowly over this period, the petroleum
derived plastics will continue to make inroads into packaging applications.*
This increase in plastics use in packaging will be true even in the face
of energy shortages now being experienced.
PLASTIC WASTE GENERATION FROM PACKAGING AND NONPACKAGING SOURCES
Introduction
Plastic packaging materials are used in a wide variety of consumer
and industrial markets. We have assumed that essentially all packaging
materials enter the waste stream within 1 year after they are manufactured or
produced,since by their nature,they are manufactured and sold as "disposable"
items. Although some items such as containers are used around the home for
storage, decoration or other purposes, the quantity is believed to be minor
in relation to all plastics waste.
It should be noted that although packaging wastes account for
the major portion of plastic waste generation, housewares, toys and other
disposable items account for a substantial portion. A study by Arthur D. Little,
"Incentives for Recycling and Resue of Plastics,"^2' showed that 71 percent
of the plastic consumer waste consists of packaging materials in 1970. They
predict that this will decline to 67.5 percent in 1975 and 65 percent in 1980.
Assuming that the decline in the percentage of packaging is constant through-
out the period, this would result in the 1972 plastic waste generation b^ing
composed of 69.5 percent packaging. Consequently, total plastic waste gen-
eration in municipal waste was 4.25 million ton:; in 1972 (Table 78). We
have assumed that between 1980 and 1990, the ratio will have reversed and
returned slowly to 69 percent packaging wastes and the balance nonpackaging.
In addition, thera is another 250,000 tons estimated plastics waste generated
in discarded appliances, furniture and similar bulky items. In total then,
plastic waste generation would be 4.5 million tons in 1972,increasing to
13.2 million tons in 1990 (in municipal solid waste).
Litter: According to a survey of roadside litter conducted by
Research Triangle Institute—', there were 650 million plastic items littered
during 1969. Although this is a large number of items, there is no estimate
of the weight of the plastic in the litter. ' We have assumed that it is
less than 1 percent of all plastic packaging and will remain at that low
level, although the use of plastic beverage containers after 1980 could
lead to a significant increase in bittered plastic items.
* Aluminum packaging will also increase in use rapidly in this period.
159
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TABLE 78
PLASTIC WASTE GENERATION IN MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Type of Plastic Waste 1972 1_975_ 1980 1985 ]J?90
Packaging
Nonpackaging
Other
Total 4,500 5,700 8,400 11,000 13,200
2,959
1,291
,-.....250
3,693
1,757
250
5,300
2,850
250
7,100
3,650
250
8,900
4,050
• 250
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
WASTE GENERATION FROM PLASTIC PACKAGING
Plastic Packaging Waste Generation by Source
Plastic packaging materials will appear as waste from households
and apartments as a result of their use by the consumer; from commercial
and institutional establishments as the result of purchases by individuals
and organizations; and from industrial sources as the result of products
for general industrial maintenance, waste bag liners and pallet wrap.
An estimated 2.47 million tons of plastic packaging waste was
generated from households in 1972. This is equivalent to 83.6 percent of
all plastic packaging waste. Commercial and institutional waste amounted
to 286,000 tons (916 percent) while industrial waste generated was 202,000
tons (6.8 percent) (Table 79).
Film: Approximately 80 percent of the packaging film appears as
household waste with the balance divided equally between commercial-
institutional and industrial waste. Household wastes include discarded
food wraps and bags, garment bags, trash bags and various consumer products
wrapped in film or packed in bags. Commercial-institutional uses include the
above items along with waste pallet wrap and trimmings from film used to
package consumer items (e.g., supermarkets). Industrial wastes include
liners in discarded shipping bags, pallet wrap, other industrial wraps and
wastes from trimming and cutting film for packaging.
160
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TABLE 79
PLASTICS PACKAGING WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE. 1972
(In thousand tons)
Commercial &
Plastic End Use Household Institutional Industrial Iota]
Tons Percent Tons Percent T?ns Percent Tons
Film 1,132 80 142 10 142 10 . 1,416
Miscellaneous
Packaging 545 85 64 10 32 5 641
Blow Molded
Containers 412 90 23 5-23 5 458
Coatings 297 85 52 15 -- -- 349
Closures and
Caps 85. 90 5 5 5 5 95_
Total 2,471 83.6 286 9.6 202 6.8 2,959
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Because of the rapid growth of pallet wrap and industrial ship-
ping bags, a greater percentage of waste will come from industrial firms
in the future. By 1990, industrial uses of plastic will- lead to generation
of 15 percent of all film waste. Household film waste will decline to 75
percent of the total.
Miscellaneous packaging: Miscellaneous packaging wastes are pre-
dominantly household wastes (85 percent of the total). Commercial-
institutional wastes account for 10 percent with the balance appearing as
industrial waste. Household wastes include discarded food containers, boxes,
trays, foamed cups, single service dinnerware and foamed packaging inserts.
Commercial-institutional wastes include the above items, along with beverage
cases and pallets. Industrial wastes are mostly foamed packaging, dis-
carded pallets and a small quantity of food containers.
Because of the predicted rapid growth for institutional and single
service dinnerware, the commercial-institutional waste will increase to 20
percent of the total by 1990, while household waste will decline to 75 per-
cent of the total.
161
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Blow molded containers: Blow molded containers are used to pack-
age a wide variety of consumer items. We estimate that their waste dis-
posal patterns are the same as glass, containers because their uses are much
the same as glass, e^'g., topackage food products and beverages. Household
waste accounts for 90 percent of the containers and the balance is divided
between commercial-institutional and industrial wastes. Household chemicals
and cleaners, toiletry and cosmetic products, milk containers, medicinal .
and health products, and food containers represent household waste. A
portion of these containers are also discarded at commercial and institu-
tional facilities by employees and residents. About 4 percent of the con-
tainers are filled with industrial products such as oils, cleaners and
chemicals.
Household and commercial-institutional wastes from discarded blow
molded plastic containers will increase more rapidly than industrial wastes
in the future because of the development of the all-plastic beverage containei
Coatings: • Coated paperboard> paper and foil wastes are estimated
at 85 percent household and 15 percent commercial-institutional waste.,
Coated milk cartons account for half of the. use of coatings. No change is
anticipated in this ratio in the future.
Closures and caps: Closures and caps parallel blow molded con-
tainer use where 90 percent appear as household waste with the balance
divided among commercial-institutional and industrial wastes. No develop-
ments are anticipated that will change this ratio in the future.
The results show that future waste generation from commercial-
institutional and industrial sources will become a greater percentage of
all plastics packaging wastes (Table 80)*.
PLASTIC PACKAGING RECOVERABLE FROM WASTE
Plastics packaging waste recovery estimates were developed by
assuming that the population within standard metropolitan statistical areas
(SMSA's would be large enough to economically support recovery). No separate
collection of plastics is likely to occur.
Our in-depth study excluded nonpackaging and other plastic wastes. We
can only estimate that discard patterns for these plastic products
follow a similar pattern to that of plastics packaging wastes as de-
scribed. However, we have no firm basis for this estimate.
162
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TABLE 80
PLASTICS PACKAGING WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
Waste Source
Household
Commercial and
Institutional
Industrial
1972
Tons Percent
2,471 83.6
286 9.6
202 6.8
Tons
3,040
373
280
1975
Percent
82.3
10.1
7.6
Tons
4,267
573
460
1980
Percent
80.5
10.8
8.7
Tons
5,610
810
680
1985
Percent
79.0
11.4
9.6
Tons
6,910
1,060
930
1990
Percent
77.7
11.9
10.4
Total
2,959 100.0
3,693 100.0 5,300 100.0 7,100 100.0 8,900 100.0
Source: Midwest Research Institute
-------
Using the ratios developed in Chapter V for allocating household,
commercial/institutional and industrial waste to SMSA's, the waste genera-
tion derived is shown in Table 81.
TABLE 81
PLASTIC WASTE GENERATION IN SMSA's. 1972-1990
1990
5,020
830
635
(In thousand tons)
Plastic Waste Source
Household (packaging)
Commercial /Institu-
tional (packaging)
Industrial (packaging)
Total Packaging
Nonpackaging plastic
Other plastic
Total All Sources
1972
1,700
210
130
2,040
890
170
3,100
1975
2,110
280
185
2,575
1,220
175
3,970
1980
3,000
440
300
3,740
2,010
175
5,925
1985
4,020
620
460
5,100
2,620
180
7,900
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
6,485
2,950
180
.PLASTICS RECOVERY FORECASTS. 1972 TO 199Q
Plastic Packaging Recovery, 1972
In-plant recycling of plastics has been practiced by the industry
from its inception. Approximately 1.2 billion pounds of scrap plastic from
manufacturing, fabricating and converting were recycled in 1972.80/
Scrap plastic is available from all phases of the manufacturing
cycle. Scrap may be generated from resin manufacture, compounding, fabrica-
tion, and converting. The scrap generated may be as low as less than 1 per-
cent of the virgin resin to as high as 50 percent, depending upon the process
and product manufactured. Scrap may be in the form of off-grade resin,
164
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trimmings, strands or large chunks. The resin is usually reground and com-
bined with virgin resins, or fabricated into products whi"h can tolerate a
wider range of performance properties. The scrap may be used by the manu-
facturer or sold to an independent compounder or re.proceasor who often
will remove contaminants from the scrap before reselling to fabricators.
However, recycling of post-consumer plastic waste has been in-
significant. Attempts have been made to recycle plastic containers such
as milk bottles and other blow molded containers. A few dairies have been
collecting containers from their home delivery routes and regrinding them
for sale to reprocessors and fabricators. Most have found this no better
than a break-even proposition since they have experienced a relatively low
return of the containers from their routes.
Seajay, Inc., of New Shrewsbury, New Jersey, has established a
volunteer recycling center.1047 Plastic bottles are delivered to this plant
where they are hand sorted and reground. The plastic waste is sold to a
molder who mixed it with virgin resins for blow molding into a variety of
products.
With the exception of the industrial recycling of scrap plastics,
no other recycling efforts of any significance are conducted at the present
time. Volunteer collection systems are negligible today and are not pro-
jected to become a factor in the' future because of the low value of the
plastic waste and the fact that plastics must be separated by resin type
before they can be considered for significant reuse by the reprocessor.
Thus, if plastics from consumer waste are to be recycled, they must come
from resource recovery systems in major metropolitan areas.
Recovery of Plastics from Municipal Waste. 1972-1990
There are no commercial systems in existence that are recovering
plastics from mixed municipal refuse. It is also doubtful that an econom-
ically viable system will be developed in the next decade. The technology
of most resource recovery systems .consists of shredding the incoming waste
followed by air classification to remove the inorganic wastes, glass and
magnetic separation to remove ferrous metals, nonferrous metals for eventual
recovery. The remaining (organic) fraction consisting of paper, plastics
and other fibrous materials would have to be further processed to separate
the plastics from the paper. Even if a fraction rich in plastics were
separated from the paper, only limited recycling uses exist for mixed post-
consumer waste plastics. The plastic fraction would contain a wide variety
of polymers which would be extremely difficult to distinguish for separation.
165
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Attempts have been made to manufacture products !:rom mixed plas-
tics. They usually, result, in items with poor physical properties that are
porous and. brittle. A recent Dow Chemical patent uses chlorii ated poly-
ethylenes to blend with mixed resins to attempt to improve the physical
properties.—' Through evaluation, they found that these resins could
have application for manufacturing tiles, pallets, toys, and construction
materials. This was a very limited study and the process it examined is
not yet commercial.
Research is being conducted on methods for separating plastics
from mixed municipal waste. The Bureau of Mines has established a resource
recovery system to recover metals, glass, paper, plastics, aluminum, copper
and zinc.83/ .This process begins with a coarse shredding, followed by
removal of the iron by magnetic separation and air classification to separate
the light fraction from glass and large nonferrouc metals. The light fractions
are shredded further and again air classified to separate the remaining metals,
fine glass, plastics, rags, putrescible material, heavy paper and cardboard
from the lighter paper and plastic fraction. The heavy fraction is further
classified to remove plastics and putrescibles and to separate the heavier
materials into a fine glass product and metal composite. The light fraction
from each of the air classifiers is combined and /treated in another separa-
tor to yield a composite product of various plastics and mixed papers.
The Black Clawson system in Franklin, Ohio, could possibly recover
plastics. This system, .previously discussed, uses a hydropulper to reduce
the material size in.a liquid system. The slurry which contains paper,
textiles, leather, plastics, and other fibers, passes through a primary
fiber selector to remove the long fine fibers which are dewatered, baled
and shipped to a roofing mill. The rejected material is fed to a secondary
fiber selector to remove the intermediate -length fibers which are dewatored,
and baled. The remaining fraction contains mostly textiles, leather, plastics
and some paper fibers. Black-Clawson claims that additional screening of
this fraction could remove the very fine fibers and some organic residue
to produce a highly enriched plastic waste fraction which could be further
separated to remove the plastics. However, they do not have any plans at
the present time to separate the plastics which are being burned in a fluid
bed incinerator.
Although research and development will continue on methods for
separating plastic waste from mixed municipal waste, we do not believe that
plastics will be recovered for their materials value from resource recovery
systems before 1990. Technology and economics would dictate that they would
have to be part of a system that would recover paper, glass and ferrous
metals. The cost of recovery would far outweigh any potential income from
the recovered material. Even if plastics were recovered, it is doubtful
that markets would exist because of the low quality and wide variety of
plastics in the waste.
166
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Recovery Forecast for Plastics. 1972 to 1990
The most likely method of recycling plastic wastes will be through
energy recovery systems where the fraction consisting of paper, plastics,
garbage, yard wastes, leather and other organics is burned to recover the
heat value.
1 Most plastics have a heat value equivalent, to a high grade of
fuel oil, since they are themselves derivatives of hydrocarbons. Poly-
ethylene has a heat potential of 18,000 Btu per pound and PVC has a heat
potential value of 9,500 Btu per pound. This high heat value tends to raise
the Btu value of the total waste fraction, improving its burn-ability and
use as a energy source in resource recovery.
In the foreseeable future, energy recovery (see Chapter III) is
the most viable option for post-consumer plastic waste. There may be limited
recycling of post-consumer plastics, but for the most part,, we do not feel
that recovery of plastics in this manner will develop.
We have assumed that energy recovery from plastics will be a part
of the forecast of centralized recovery systems to be installed. Thus,
the plastics will be processed for their heat value in proportion to total
occurrence in municipal waste. Our forecasts for recovery are in Table 82.
The plastics content of waste will rise from 3.5 percent in 1972 to 6.6
percent in 1990. The amount of plastics processed through central energy
recovery systems will rise from none in 1972 to 3.2 million tons in 1990;
this is 96.3 x 10^ Btu "higher heating value" content recovery in 1990
(i.e., without adjustment for thermal efficiency or losses).
Resource recovery will have little effect upon the solid waste
load from plastics. The rapid growth in the use of plastics will cause the
net plastic waste disposal (generation minus recovery) to increase from
4.5 million tons in 1972 to 8.4 million tons in 1980 and 10.5 million tons
in 1990. Thus, the growth of tonnage will be slowed, but not stopped, by
resource recoverv installations. On an SMSA basis, the net disposal will
rise from 2.9 million tons in 1972 to 5.4 million tons in 1980 and 7.5 mil-
lion tons in 1990 (Table 82).
By 1990, 24.3 percent of the total plastic waste generation will
be recovered for its energy content (33.3 percent of that generated in
SMSA's). Thus, while recycling of plastics appears to have dim prospec.ts,
the recovery of the energy content will be significant.
167
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TABLE 82
PLASTICS RECOVERY FROM MIXED MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1972 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Year
Category 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Total Mixed Waste Generated 130,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
Plastics Available in Munici-
pal Waste 4,500 5,700 8,400 11,000 13,200
Percent Plastic in Waste 3.5 4.1 5.3 6.2 6.6
Number of Resource Recovery
Plants Recovering Energy None 5 12 32 60
Total Mixed Waste Processed in
Central Facilities None 2,100 6,600 24,000 48,600
Total Plastics in Processed
Waste None 85 350 1,470 3,210
Recovery-106 Btu (at 30 x 106
Btu/TonS/) Neg. 2,550 10,500 44,100 96,300
Plastics Available in SMSA's 3,100 3,970 5,925 7,900 9,615
Plastics Recovery (as energy) as
a percent of:
Total Plastic waste 0 1.5 4.2 13.4 24.3
Plastic Waste in SMSA's 0 2.1 5.9 18.6 33.3
a/ The Btu value and recovery percentage is based on 100 percent of the Btu
content (higher heating value) and not the heat (as work) actually de-
livered considering thermal efficiency.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
168
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CHAPTER IX
RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR RUBBER TIRES TO 199(.
SUMMARY
The demand for rubber tires of all types will increase from 230
million units in 1972 to 375 million units in 1990. This includes original
equipment as well as replacement tires. In 1972, about 122.5 million tires
were discarded which is about 1.6 million tons of tire waste; by 1990, there
will be 223 million tires discarded or 3.1 million tons of waste. These
are the net discards after allowance for retreading, reclaiming and tire
splitting.
There will be, over time, a general increase in the strength and
quality of passenger car tires, as a result of use of new fibers, increasing
use of radial tires and stiffer safety standards. If raw materials come
into short supply, there may be, in addition, a return to more extensive
.retreading of auto tires just as truck and bas tires are handled today.
Although most tires sold are for private passenger cars, they do
not show up in household waste as discards. Instead, almost all of the
tires are traded in to wholesale and retail dealers. We estimate about 95
percent of all tires are discarded as commercial/institution waste--!.5 mil-
lion tons in 1972, and 3.0 million tons in 1990.
Of the total 1.6 million tons of tire waste discarded in 1972,
about 1.2 million tons will be available in SMSA's. By 1990, there will be
2.4 million tons available in. SMSA's compared to 3.1 million tons total
waste generated.
Only two recovery activities will be significant by 1990 as far
as the use of rubber tires is concerned—retreading and energy recovery.
Retreading will begin to rise in importance again after 1980.
.The development of pyrolysis furnaces to handle whole tires econo-
mically (and without air emission problems) will lead to significant energy
recovery from tires, principally for process steam. Tires contain the heat
value of a high grade coal, 25 million Btu per ton. We forecast that in 1985,
22,000 tons of tires will be processed for energy recovery, generating 0.6 x
109 Btu; by 1990, 400,000 tons of tires will be processed for 10 x 10^ Btu.
On a percentage basis, this is 12.9 percent of all waste tires in 1990 and
16.5 percent of that generated in SMSA's. For the most part, the energy re-
covery will take place in special recovery furnaces rather than as a integral
169
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part of centralized resource recovery systems. However, if a low cost
mechanical shredding system comes into use, tires may be aggressively sought
as an energy source, because of their high Btu content. In fact, there are
some indications our forecasts of tire recovery could be very conservative.
INTRODUCTION
In 1972, tires made up 65 percent of the total rubber demand in
the USA; rubber mechanical goods were 17.5 percent; other uses were 17.5
percent (see Table 83). Of these products, the ones of significance in
municipal waste are: tires, footwear, and foam. The balance is largely
associated with industrial, farming, and transportation. Total new rubber
demand in 1972 was 3.0 million tons.
TABLE 83
DEMAND FOR NEW RUBBER BY END USE CATEGORY. 1972
(In Thousand Tons and Percent)
End Use Category Quantity Percent
Tires and Tire Products
Mechanical Goods
Other Rubber Products
Footwear
Latex Foam Products
Wire/Cable
Totals 3,030- 100.0
Source: Rubber Manufacturers Association.
The use of rubber in tires has run close to 65 percent of total
rubber demand for several years. This relationship is likely to continue,
even with the trend toward longer life tires.
170
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RUBBER TIRE DEMAND BY MARKET. 1962 TO 1990
Forecast of Total Tire Demand to 1990
Demand for tires has increased steadily over the past 1( years.
The outlook is for a steady but small annual increase in tire demand through
1990. Passenger car, truck and bus tire shipments i~t 1962 were approxi-
mately 130 million units. This figure increased to approximately 213 mil-
lion units in 1972 (or about one tire per person per year for the USA).'
The annual demand for tires is determined by the number of cars,
trucks, and buses that will be in service during the period in question and
the mileage driven. By 1990, approximately 190 million vehicles will be in
service, up from approximately 120 million cars, trucks, and buses now re-
gistered. With this predicted growth in vehicle registration, there will
be an increased demand for tires in direct proportion to the increasing
number of vehicles registered.
Considering this indicator, industry experts predict passenger
car tire shipments in 1990 will be 320 million units compared to 196 mil-
lion units shipped in 1972. Truck and bus tire shipments will be 55 mil-
lion units in 1990, up from 34 million units shipped in 1972 (Table 84 and
Figure 26).
These forecasts were made under the following assumptions: None
of the EPA proposals banning automobiles from metropolitan str°ets will
become law; the current shortage of motor fuel will not continue over a
long period of time and motor fuel will be available at a price that
does not depress travel significantly*; the automobile will remain the
primary source of transportation through 1990; the radial tire will not
be used con more than 50 percent of .new cars and will not exceed 40 percent
of the replacement tire market.
Tire Construction Trends
There are now three principal tire construction types—the bias
ply, the bias belted and the radial tire. What their use trends will be in
the late 1970's and the decade of the 1980's is not yet determined.
Many rubber industry experts consider the radial tire too expen-
sive to outsell the bias belted tire. The reason given for this is that
drivers in the United States do not need a tire of the radial's capabilities
Or power plants, auto design and other energy conservation design param-
eters will lead to reduced demand for motor fuel relative to "normal
growth" in total vehicle registration.
171
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TABLE 84
TIRE SHIPMENTS BY VEHICLE TYPE. 1962 - 1990
to
(In Million Units)
Year
1962
1964
1968
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
OEi/
37
41
49
49
54
58
66
73
80
.5
.9
.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Passenter Car
Tire Shipments
Replacements
78,4
79
121
136
142
175
195
215
240
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Total
115.
120.
171.
185.
196.
233.
261.
288.
320.
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
op/
4.5
5.
8,
10.
13.
15.
17.
19.
20.
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
Truck and Bus
Tire
Replacement
10.6
12.
16.
18.
21.
25.
30.
32.
35.
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
Shipments
Total
15.1
17 . 6
24.8
28 3
34,0
40.0
47.0
51.0
55.0
a/ Original Equipment
Source: Rubber Manufacturers Association (1962-1971); Midwest Research Institute forecasts.
-------
OJ
1000
500
^ 100
c
50
101 L.
1960
Car, Truck, and Bus Tires
Retread Production
II 111 i J
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure 26 - New Tire Shipments and Retread Tire Production, 1962-1990
-------
just to drive the family car to the store or to work, and therefore, will
not pay the higher price of the radial. Instead, consumers will likely
prefer bias belted tires. MRI, based on literature sources, has projected
the bias ply tire to all but disappear by 1990; the bias belted tire to hold
about 60 percent of the business and radial tires to have about 40 percent
of the total tire market (Table 85).
TABLE 85
PASSENGER CAR TIRE MARKET SHARE BY TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION. 1972 - 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
(In
Type Construction
Bias Ply
Bias Belted
Radial
Bias Ply
Bias Belted
Radial
Bias Ply
Bias Belted
Radial
Bias Ply
Bias Belted
Radial
Bias Ply
.Bias Belted
Radial
percent)
Original
Equipment
16
78
6
10
59
31
5
60
35
2
60
38
--
60
40
Replacement
52
41
7
46
33
21
30
45
25
15
55
30
10
60
30
Source: Rubber Manufacturers Association, 1972, Midwest Research Institute,
1975 to 1990.
In addition to the trend to radial and bias belted tires, the
type of tire cord used in tire construction is likely to change in the
future. The cord is one of the key components of a tire that determines
its structural integrity and durability.
174
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Tire cord requirements will change over time as indicated in
Figure 27. The present profile shows nylon with 46.5 percent of the total,
polyester 28 percent and rayon 19 percent. By 1975, it is expected that
glass, rayon and nylon fibers will have declined in use while polyester will
rise to one-third and steel will have increased to 8 percent of the tire
cord market. Under these trends, by the early part of the 1980's, rayon
and nylon cord will be completely replaced by other fibers except in the
case of a few specialty tires; polyester will be about one-fourth; steel,
one-fourth; and new synthetic fibers will gain about one-fifth of _he total
cord market. Steel cord is now displacing glass fiber as a tire cord
material. Glass fiber will likely take a lower share of the market but not
disappear. Also, polyester will continue to hold a large share of the ori-
ginal equipment market until 1975, according to industry sources. Rayon
and nylon,which have been in use as tire cord for years, are expected to
decline in importance beginning by 1974 or 1975, and by early in the next
decade, will have been displaced completely by polyester, steel and other
new fibers.
With the new stronger tire cords and especially the stronger,
safer tire carcasses starting to appear in mass-produced quantities on the
market, it is possible that tire retreading could be rejuvenated. This
may lead to extending the life of tires via a retreading cycle similar to
that used commonly for trucks and business. This could become a viable
alternative to disposal of passenger car tires, although retreading as a
common practice must be considered speculative at this time.
Waste Generation from Discarded Tires
The forecast increase in the number of tires to be used is of
special concern because of the difficulty of disposing of discarded tires.
In landfills, tires cannot be effectively compacted and even when buried,
tend to work their way to the surface over a period of years. In addition,
tires use a large volume of landfill space. Tires cannot be handled ef-
ficiently in conventional incinerators.
One method of disposing of discarded tires is shredding, splitting
or otherwise reducing the volume of the tire. However, these types of oper-
ations are few in number and high cost; shredding is used only in a very few
locations in the country. One special furnace to pyrolize old tires has
been built in Jackson, Michigan; the unit will produce steam for plant use,
but the operating history is too short to determine whether this resource
recovery approach is commercially viable. Another experimental plant is
scheduled to be built in the Denver area.
175
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•vl
O\
Glass Fiber
6.6%
1972
Glass Fiber—^
5.5% \
1975
SOURCE: Rubber Manufacturers Association (1972)
1985
Figure 27 - Tire Construction by Tire Cord Type,(1972, 1975, 1985).
-------
Calculating the total waste generated from tire discards is rela-
tively straightforward. The number of tires entering the waste stream
should equal the number of replacement tires purchased in a given year,
less tires recapped and reclaimed for other uses.
Three types of tire recovery take place that reduce the total
discard of old tires — retreading, tire splitting, and rubber reclaiming.
These are operations that have been in decline for many years. The trend
in tire retreading is given in Table 86. In 1972, the retreading rate for
passenger car tires was 22 percent of new replacements and truck and bus
tire retreading was 45 percent of new replacements.
TABLE 86
TIRE RETREADING, 1963 - 1972
(In millions of units)
Year Passenger Car Tires Truck and Bus Total
1963 36.3 7.5 43.8
1965 36.0 7.6 43.6
1967 34.5 9.3 43.8
1969 36.5 10.0 37.5
1971 31.8 10.7 42.5
1972§/ 31.2 9.5 40.7
a/ Based on 6 months' data
Source: Rubber Manufacturers Association.
The declining rate of retreading in passenger car tires is expected
to continue until 1980; after this, we have forecast an increase in retread-
ing, although not a dramatic one (Table 87). If a severe shortage of hydro-
carbon feed stocks develops for synthetic rubber, the rate of retreading
could rise dramatically.
The net waste generation of tires was also calculated. In total,
122.5 million units are estimated to have been discarded in 1972 or 1.8
million tons; by 1990, the net discard rate will be risen to 223 million
units and 3.4 million tons. From these figures, the amount of reclaimed
rubber and rubber splitting use must also be deducted.
The reclaimed rubber industry, which converts used rubber products
into reuseable materials, has experienced a production decline since 1963.
177
-------
oo
TABLE 87
WASTE GENERATION FROM TIRE DISCARD, 1972 TO 1990
(In Million
Units and Million Tons)
Passenger Car Tires
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Replacements
141
175
_ 195
215
240
Net Discards
122.5
159.0
184.5
201.0
223.0
Retreads
31
31
30
35
40
Quantity
1.8
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.4
Net Discard
111
144
165
180
200
Total
Adjustment^'
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
Quant ityj*/ Replacements
1.4 21
1.8 25
2.1 30
2.3 32
2.5 35
Discarded
Net Quantity
1.6
2.2
2.6
2.8
3.1
Truck and Bus Tires
Retreads Net Discard Quantity^/
9.5 11.5 0.4
10.0 15.0 0.6
10.5 19.5 0.7
11.0 21.0 0.8
12.0 23.0 . 0.9
al At 25 pounds per tire total weight of rubber, cord etc., in tire.
b/ At 75 pounds per tire total weight of rubber, cord etc., in tire.
£/ Rubber reclaim and tire splitting rubber recovery.
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
-------
Reclaimed rubber consumption as a percent of total new rubber has declined from
approximately 15 percent in 1963 to 10 percent in 1968 and 7 percent in 1972.
We estimate that reclaimed rubber production will level off between 4 percent
and 5 percent of new rubber through the 1972-1990 period.
The tire splitting industry is the only rubber waste user pre-
dicting a possible increase in production. However, today there are only
three companies in business and tire splitters do not process enough rubber
waste to be considered a significant waste processer when the total tire
waste rate is considered. Estimates are that these three companies process
only 1 percent of the total number of discarded tires and thus, do not
significantly reduce rubber tire waste.*
Based on these estimates, we have further reduced net waste gen-
eration, by an estimated 200,000 tons per year in 1972 to 300,000 tons in
1990 (Table 87).
Overall, therefore, it is estimated that in 1972 approximately
1..6 million tons of tires entered the waste stream for disposal; by 1990,
this total will have risen to 3.1 million tons (Table 87).
TIRE WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE
Tire Waste in Household. Commercial/Institutional and Industrial Wastes
Approximately 80 percent of the total vehicles on the road are
considered noncommercial.** This percentage has remained stable over the
past few years.
j However, because of the nature of the tire business, almost all
replacement tires are sold via wholesale and retail stores and this is
where the waste tires accumulate. Therefore, those that do not find their
way to rubber reclaimers or tire splitters end up as waste in the commercial
sector. For these reasons, we have placed almost all tire discard tonnage
in the commercial/institutional waste stream, even though their useful life
is served out in other places. We estimate that 4 percent of tire discards •
are in the industrial sector and less than 1 percent discarded from house-
holds. The discard profile by waste source is given in Table 88.
* "Rubber Reuse and Solid Waste Management," Environmental Protection
Agency, 1972.
** Source: Automobile Manufacturers Association.
179
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TABLE 88
TIRE WASTE GENERATION BY SOURCE, 1972 TO 1990
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Tire
Waste
Generated
1,600
2,200
2,600
2,800
3,100
(In thousand
Household
Waste
Generation
10
10
15
15
15
tons)
Commercial/
Institutional
Waste Generation
1,525
2,100
2,480
2,670
2,960
Industrial
Waste
Generation
65
90
105
115
125
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Tire Wastes in Litter
We have no firm estimates for tires found as uncollected litter.
It is known that tires are thrown along road sides, into water bodies, dis-
carded in camp grounds and on private property; additionally,, tires in uncol-
lected abandoned vehicles could be considered as litter. We have arbitarily
estimated that litter would claim about 1/2 percent of the net tire waste
generated. This would be 8,000 tons in 1972, rising to 13,000 tons in 1980 and
15,000 tons in 1990. Since these are speculative numbers, we present them merely
to acknowledge the existence of uncollected tires as litter.
Tires Recoverable From Waste
Today tires are virtually worthless for any form of recovery if
they are not already acceptable as retreads or for reclaimed rubber. Some
are used for offshore i'eef building in fishing areas. Others are ground
up for use in rubberized asphalt compounds. However, for the most part, tires
entering the waste stream have no economic value.
To calculate recoverability, we limit the prospective collection
system to SMSA's as we did for other waste materials. The quantity of
waste generation in SMSA's was calculated from the ratio of commercial/
institutional wastes given in Table 89.
Tires and other tire products are collected and accumulated mainly
by retail tire stores, gasoline stations and other similar retail outlets.
180
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TABLE 89
SUMMARY OF ENERGY RECOVERY FORECAST FOR TIRES IN MUNICIPAL WASTE. 1962 to 1990
00
(In thousand tons and percent)
Year
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
Generated
1,600
2,200
2,600
2,800
3,100
Energy
Content
109 Btu
40
55
65
70
78
Generated
in SMSA's
1,185
1,645
1,980
2,160
2,430
Energy
Content
109 Btu
30
41
50
54
61
Processed for
Energy Recovery
None
22
100
200
400
Energy Recovery
Recovery Percent
109 Btu Total
0 0
6.0 1.0
2.5 3.8
5.4 7.1
10.0 12.9
as a
of
SMSA's
0
1.3
5.0
9.3
16.5
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
-------
Few tires are actually placed In the waste stream by the consumer. This
practice normally results in tire accumulations at convenient pick-up points
and then they are taken to a dump in large amounts.
From this, it can be assumed most used tires that have been replaced
can be easily collected for reuse and do not have to be separated from other
residential waste as is the case with most materials. We have estimated that
95 percent of all discarded tires in SMSA's are available for collection and
recovery.
In 1972, a total of 1.2 million tons of tires as waste were
generated in SMSA's; by 1990, this total will rise to 2.4 million tons (Table
89). Estimating that 95 percent of this could actually be delivered to a
recovery site, the potential recovery of tires as waste would be 1.1 million
tons in 1972 and 2.3 million tons in 1990.
Trends in Rubber Tire Recovery
The use of rubber tires for retreading, reclaiming and tire split-
ting has been discussed previously. These fractions have been shown as a
net deduction from total tire discards. Whether retreading might regain
more popularity for passenger car tires is now questionable. With today's
technology, safe retreads can be manufactured, but tire companies must re-
vive the retread in consumer tire markets — including quality and per-
formance specifications. At the present time, a turn by the tire companies
to this idea does not seem to be forthcoming, although a shortage of raw •
materials could set the practice back "in vogue" quickly.
In the past several years, there have been several new techniques
developed that could possibly solve some of the present problems involved
in processing used tires.
Using old tires to construct artificial reefs has been suggested
in response to the growing popularity of sport fishing off the Gulf and
Eastern coasts. The L. ain problem with this approach is that water action
must be fairly weak or the reef cannot be. constructed in the proper method.
Also, there are no extensive data as to the costs and benefits that are
Involved in using these reefs as fish spawning points.
•
Another possible way to dispose of shredded tires is by mixing
the ground rubber with asphalt as a binder. It is reported that rubber
reduces the tendency of asphalt to "bleed" and, in turn, cause a skidding
hazard. However, at present, the cost of adding rubber to roads is very
high in most cases. This cost could be incurred by many states and cities
if it is shown that this procedure reduces the need for road maintenance.
At present, New York and Arizona are conducting experiments in this area.
182
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However, the most viable recovery option is the energy value of
I , i
tires, converted in pyrolysis furnaces for the generation of process steam.
Goodyear has a Lucas (English) furnace in operation at Jackson, Michigan,
to pyrolize tire carcasses and generate steam. However, no operating data
are yet available on the process. The technology and economics ate unknowns
but appear promising. We estimate that by 1990 perhaps 13 percent or 400,000
tons of old tires will be processed for energy recovery in two types of instal-
lations—those in conjunction with centralized waste nrocessing units and those
designed to serve industrial plants with process steam. However, our estimates
cannot be derived from a firm base at this point in time, except from the fact
that tires are hydrocarbon-based and represent a very attractive energy source
given a reliable, low cost conversion technology. Our projections for tire
recovery in energy installations is summarized in Table 90. Although other
recovery options could arise, we believe recovering the energy content of
discarded tires will be the most viable even if increased retreading does
become a significant factor also.
The heat content of tires is 12,500 Btu/pound or 25 million Btu/
ton;* this is equivalent to coal. In fact, tires have a higher Btu content
than the low sulfur Wyoming coal now being purchased in quantity by utilities.
The potential energy recovery from waste rubber tires generated
in SMSA's is also given in Table 89. The actual recovery will be modest
amounting to 0.6 x 109 Btu in 1975 and 10 x Ifl9 Btu by 1990. This is 12.9
percent of total tire waste in 1990 and 16.5 percent of that generated in
SMSA's. For the most part, this recovery will take place via special pyrolysis
units and will produce process steam for a resource recovery plant or local
industrial use.
* ."Rubber Industry and the Environment" Rubber World. December 1973, pages
53-54.
183
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CHAPTER X
RESOURCE RECOVERY FOR PAPER TO 1990
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Paper is the major component of solid waste, and has several
recovery options that will be pursued in the future. Paper will increase
in importance as a recycled material; as an export to fiber short countries;
and as an organic it has fuel value for energy recovery options. It is
also usable as a fiber source for other products.
The demand for paper products is forecast to increase steadily
to 1990, which means an, increasing rate of waste generation. However,
recycling of paper will also increase substantially in the future, and
the advent of energy recovery on a large scale as forecast in Chapter II
will mean useful recovery of a significant portion of that paper not re-
covered for recycling purposes.
Our forecasts show that 1973 was the "tarnaround" year for re-
source recovery of paper. The rate of paper recycling increased in 1973
after three decades of relative decline, and recycling likely will continue
to rise in the years to follow. However, the rate of growth of recycling
will flatten as the industry begins to expand its virgin fiber processing
capability more rapidly in the late 1970's. Further, the forecast recycling
rate is below the potential rate if more favorable economic conditions pre-
ferentially encourage investment in recycling facilities.
The overview of our forecasts for the period 1972 to 1990 is
given in Table 90. We have forecast an increase in demand from 64.4 million
tons in 1972 to 109.2 million tons in 1990. At the same time, recycling
of waste paper will increase from 12.9 million tons in 1972 to 27.1 million
tons in 1990. This means an increase in the rate of recycling in the paper
industry from 20.1 percent in 1972 to 24.8 percent in 1990. In addition,
net exports of waste paper and use of paper in other products is expected
to draw another 1.9 million tons from the waste stream in 1990. Above this,
solid waste-based energy recovery systems will utilize 15.3 million tons
of paper by 1990, compared to virtually none in 1972 (Figure 28).
Thus, the total useful recovery of paper will stand at 44.4 million
tons in 1990, compared to 13.6 million tons in 1972, a 226 percent increase.
This recovery rate will be 40.6 percent of.demand and 47.4 percent of waste
paper generated.
184
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TABLE 90
SUMMARY OF RESOURCE RECOVERY FORECASTS FOR PAPER. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
Category
Total USA Paper Demand
Total Waste Paper Generation
Source of Waste Paper —
Household
Commercial /Institutional
Industrial
Waste Paper Recovery:^.'
For Recycling by Paper
Industry
For Use in Molded Pulp
Products
Other Uses (est.)
Net Exports
Total Fiber Recovery
Recovered via Energy/Fuel
Options
Total Recovery
Net Paper Waste Disposal
Percent Recovery of Demand
1972
64,400
55,050
25,000
24,300
5,750
12,932
200
90
328
13,550
Neg.
13,550
41,500
21.0
1975
66,490
56,950
25,500
25,450
6,000
13,960
200
90
900
15,150
650
15,800
41,150
23.8
1980
79,360
68,950
30,000
31,650
7,300
17,610
250
90
1,100
19,050
2,000
21,050
47,900
26.5
1985
93,565
79,950
33,650
37,750
8,550
22,215
250
85
1,300
23,850
7,250
31,100
48,850
33.2
1990
109,240
93,650
38,300
45,350
10,000
27 •, 090.
250
110
1,550
29,000
15,350
44,350
49,300
40.6
Percent Recovery of Waste
Paper Generated 24.6 27.7 30.5 38.9 47.4
Percent Disposal of Paper
Waste Generated 75.4 72.3 69.5 61.1 52.6
a/ Includes that recovered within solid waste management systems by source
and mechanical separation.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
185
-------
120,000
100.000
Totol USA Poper
Demond
xTotol Wosfe Poper
<• Generation
00
80.000
O
t—
8
60,0001
40.000f
20. 000[
x-< .W;--^
' •' ;W^^ ^ w;^^$>
•,'-.'-.\V-.X\\\\\\\' Net Waste Paper Di>posal\
Paper
,
\'. ner?yr^-Total for Recycling
"' '
XRecovery via Recycling../
^ ^ ,• ^ '.•,'.•- \ •
.'.,•'•.-' ..•' •' y -. . '. • •.
I960
1965
YEAR
1985
1990
Figure 28 - Summary of Resource Recovery Forecasts
for Paper, 1972-1990
-------
The actual disposal of waste paper via landfill and incineration
will rise from 41.5 million tons in 1972 to 49.3 million t ms in 1990;
However, by 1980 the quantities of waste paper going into disposal systems
(as opposed to recovery systems) will have nearly leveled out in spite of
a continued increase in demand for paper products. Thus the effect of
paper recovery techniques on the nation's waste stream will be significant,
in the absence of direct legislative intervention at the federal level,
even though the true potential of recovery would be significantly higher.
Forecasts of Paper Demand
The consumption" or demand ""'for paper has been reasonably pre-
dictable over a long period of time. Of course, the fortunes of selected
grades of paper have prospered and waned as specific end uses and inter-
materials competition have changed the demand patterns- Nonetheless, the
nation's use of paper has grown (and declined) in concert with the growth
(and decline) of real GNP.
There are literally thousands of paper products made,but they
can be classified generally into a few broad categories: communications,
packaging, personal products, industrial products and other. The communi-
cation papers encompass most paper grades—newsprint, printing paper, "book"
paper and "fine" paper. Most packaging grades are paperboard: linerboard,
corrugating medium, folding boxboard, but also include wrapping and sack
paper.
Personal products come mainly in the form of tissue--towels,
napkins, toilet paper and the like. Industrial products include panel-
board for furniture and autos, roofing felts, construction paper (gypsum
liner), hard pressed board; tube, can and drum and others.
Usually defined as: production + imports - exports.
Demand is used as a synonym to consumption. It is assumed that demand
will be equaled by supply and that there is no gap between demand
and actual consumption.
187
-------
MRI has detailed the market aspects of paper demand in several
previous studies.* These detailed data are not discussed or "reinvented1
here, but are presented as the basic data required in this study.
The forecast of demand is the key statistic around which the
related materials factors revolve. The demand (or consumption) sets the
requirements for raw materials which in turn determines to what extent
virgin and recycled paper may be used.
Each paper grade follows its own demand pattern and MRI's fore-
casts are based on the demand for the various grades of paper. In turn,
that demand pattern is set by requirements for the finished products that
the paper is converted to—corrugated boxes, newspapers and the like.
Also "consumption" leads to the inevitable discard of the product
as waste. The nature of the product and its end use largely determine where
it will be discarded, in what form and how. For example, corrugated boxes
are discarded where the contents are emptied, usually a retail store, ware-
house, or industrial plant. By contrast, toilet paper "disappears" from
the municipal waste stream because it is discarded into sewer systems.
* The previous studies by Midwest Research Institute that are used as sub-
stantive background for this chapter are:
"Paper Recycling--The Art of the Possible 1970-1985," The Solid
Waste Council of the Paper Industry, March 1973, American
Paper,1 Institute, Inc., XX, 181 pp.
"Salvage Markets for Materials in Solid Waste," U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, No. SW-29C, U.S. Government Printing office,
Washington, D.C., 1972, XXI, 187 pp.
"The Role of Nonpackaging Paper in Solid Waste Management, 1966
to 1976," Public Health Service Publication No. 2040, Washington,
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971, X, 76 pp.
"The Role of Packaging in Solid Waste Management, 1966 to 1976,"
Public Health Service Publication No. 1855, U.S. Government
Printing Office, 1971, X, 205 pp.
188
-------
Thus, the forecasts of demand set the stage for determining
how much of what kinds of paper products end up as waste paper and where.
In turn, these data can be used to determine how much of wh it kinds of
waste paper are recoverable and where it might be used for recycling or
other recovery practices such as combustion of paper in mixed waste to re-
cover the heat content.
" The grade-by-grade forecasts and total demand forecasts were
developed on the basis of several data sources. MRI relied heavily on
industrial sources for general trends as well as specific grade categories.
In addition, industry associations were also consulted. Much of the fore-
cast was developed to 1985 in a previous study."' However, a significant
effort was made to update the demand forecasts, and to reflect the long-
term effects of the 1973 "boom" in demand and subsequent 1974 decline as
economic recession came to the economy. The forecasts were developed
independently and cannot be attributed to specific outside sources.
Forecast Results
The total demand for paper in the United States has paralleled
real GNP quite closely in the past, and this general correlation will be
valid for some years to come. However, the paper industry is a mature
industry and the rate of growth of paper demand will be declining in the
1975 to 1990 period. Many competitive material displacements that took place
in the 1960's are now nearly complete (e.g., paper for wood) while plastics
and metals continue to make some inroads in packaging and other products.
Some end uses for paper have reached their growth limits (e.g., setup boxes);
new uses for paper will stimulate further growth in selected grade groups,
e.g., printing and fine paper for expanding communications uses, and contain-
erboard for packaging applications.
The paper industry's production will increase at an annual rate
of 2.9 percent from 1973 to 1990; consumption will also increase at an
annual rate of 2.9 percent (Table 91). Total industry production will in-
crease from 59.3 million tons in 1972 to .102.8 million tons in 1990. At
the same time, paper and paperboard consumption in the U.S. will grow from
64.4 million tons to 109.2 million tons, an increase of 70 percent over the
18-year .period.
The forecasts were built up on a grade-by-grade basis. However,
the forecast growth rates for the period 1973 to 1990 appear to be low com-
pared to the base period of 1963 to 1973. 'There are several reasons for
this. First, the year 1973 was a boom year in the industry and this introduces
* "Paper Kocycling-the Art of the Possible 1970-1985," op.cit.
189
-------
1A.SU. 91
PAPER DEMAND AND PRODUCTION BY CHALE. IV63 Tl 1990
Grade and category
Paper
Newsprint Production
Net Imports
Total Demand
Groundwood Printing
Coated Book Paper
Uncoated Book Paper
Writing Papers
Bristols
Packaging and Ind. Conv. (unbl.)
Other Packaging and Ind. Conv.
Special Industrial Paper
Tissue
Total Demand^
Paperboard
Liner board --total
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Corrugating Medium—total
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Container Chipboard (recycled)
Other Containerboard
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Total Containerboard
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Folding Boxboard --tota 1
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Setup Boxboard--recycled
Milk Carton and Food Service--
solid
Other Boxboard-- total
Recyc led
Solid Wood Pulp
Total Boxboard
Recycled
Solid Wood Pulp
Total Paperboard
Total Domestic Demand
Wet Machine Board
Insulating and Hard Pressed Board
Total Other
Crand Total—All Crades
1963 1964
2,213 2,249
5.295 5.837
7,508 8,086
974 1.055
2.374 2.584
1.897 1,962
1,928 2,047
753 780
3.158 3,239
1,063 1,080
262 289
2.563 2.721
22,418 23,729
6,414 6,908
677 693
5,737 6,215
2,962 3,165
675 718
2,287 2,447
263 269
1,827 2,191
907 929
920 1.262
11,465 12,533
2,507 2,595
8,958 9,938
3,636 3,752
2,562 2,594
1,074 :.158
527 534
1,255 1.295
1,711 1,840
1.312 1,403
399 437
7,126 7, '431
4,493 4,612
2.635 2,809
18,594 19,954
329 1,098
17,765 18.856
139 153
1 4A S 15^7
2.255 :,454
3,542 4,;34
44,025 46.7JJ
Note: Paperbnard grades are adjusted for export? but
1965
2.180
6.238
8,418
1,134
2,778
2,111
2,261
871
3.316
1,147
304
2.862
25,160
7,481
750
6,731
3,438
800
2,638
280
2,336
935
1,401
13,535
2,748
10,787
3,889
3,659
1.221
547
1,384
1,985
1,494
491
7,796
4.764
3.012
21,332
1. 1 76
20,154
150
1 567
j.555
4.272
"°-3t'D
.- :>r p
1966
2,347
6.892
9,239
1,287
3,052
2,370
2,512
924
3,417
1.145
332
3.082
27.314
8,347
767
7,580
3,800
890
2,910
313
2,451
920
1,531
14,910
2,866
12.044
4,040
2,732
1,308
560
1,476
2,192
1,617
575
" 8,268
4,987
3,261
23,179
1 ,295
21,884
149
1 486
2,396
4,031
53.229
ports.
aperboar
1967
2,599
6,509
9,108
1,306
3,040
2.316
2.477
982
3,371
1,175
332
3.195
27,257
8,215
498
7,718
3,743
761
2,982
290
2.511
908
1.603
14,760
2,436
12,324
4,021
2,660
1,361
496
1,456
2,087
1.558
529
8,060
4,781
3.279
22.819
1,470
21.349
147
1 ,498
2,407
4,052
5J.658
This has
d does n
1968
2,956
6,333
9,289
1,316
.3,077
2.614
2,680
1.009
3,629
1,233
370
3.376
28.532
9,044
407
8,636
4,062
691
3,371
283
3,001
1,066
1.935
16.389
2,427
13,962
4,218
2,730
1,488
520
1,596
2,18!
1,617
564
8,515
4,916
3.599
24.904
1 ,957
22,947
162
1 , 564
2,631
4,557
5b,036
Mn thou
1969
3,252
6.663
9.915
1.405
3,279
2,691
2,920
1,047
3,712
1,287
389
3.556
30,161
9.692
347
9,345
4,395
778
3,617
309
3,437
1,163
2.274
17,833
2,561
15,262
4,262
2,629
1,633
499
1,665
2,118
1,584
534
8,543
4,751
3.792
26,376
2,084
24.292
153
1 , 592
3,000
4.745
59. !9S
sand tons)
1970 1971
3,345
6.491
9.836
1.442
3,203
2,707
2,861
998
3,696
1.247
. 371
3,746
30,053
9,403
270
9.133
4,264
859
3,405
297
3,245
1,074
2.271
17.309
2.474
14,835
4,080
2,473
1,607
467
i.693
1.335
!,523
312
8,074
4,506
3,568
25,383
2,163
23,220
144
\ , 590
2.628
4,562
57. S3.,
3.321
6.715
10,036
1,337
3,179
2,873
2,903
977
3,711
1.263
386
3,665
30,478
9,531
282
9,249
4.520
940
3,580
303
3,664
1,238
2.426
18,017
2,732
15,285
4,139
2,408
1,731
448
1,646
1,786
1,526
260
8,020
4.424
3.596
26,037
2.443
23,594
140
1 , 862
3.366
5,366
,,,
1972
3.451
6.955
10,40«i
1,439
3,470
3,098
3,246
1.062
3.908
1,322
441
4.005
32.343
10,856
279
10.576
4,846
972
3.874
316
3.892
1,348
2.544
19.911
2,893
17,018
4,440
2.477
1,963
455
1,656
2,040
1,680
360
8.591
4.645
3.946
28.503
2.370
26,133
146
1 , 954
3. 7?0
5.SSO
(v.. ?f
the effect or showing slightly higher Ci
nt natch KUIV.-UI ot iVnpcs data: htivovo ; .
1973
3,413
7.313
10,726
1.560
3.766
3,185
3.689
1,134
4,025
1,319
478
3,933
33,748
11,346
2S9
11,067
5,255
1,128
4,127
317
3,678
1,386
2.292
20,606
3.110
17,496
4.705
2,521
2,184
465
1,595
2.201
1,757
414
S.965
4,744
4,191
29,572
27,327
134
4,373
6,047
e>7.i::
TSU~pt i.
1975
3,200
7.230
10.430
1.570
3,835
3,300
3,810
1.105
4,110
1.315
500
3.960
33,935
11,145
355
10,790
5,130
1,120
4,010
275
3.575
1,328
2.247
20,120
3,070
17,050
4.450
2,308
2,142
400
1,570
2,130
1.700
430
f ,550
4,400
4,150
26,670
2.200
26,470
135
1 , 800
4, 150
6,055
66,490
•n than
'••. :nor
1980
3,900
6.000
11,900
1,820
4.660
4.010
4,640
1,340
4,650
1.470
640
4.590
39,720
14,100
920
13.180
6,500
1.750
4.750
350
4.650
1.750
2.900
25,600
4,770
20,830
4,950
2,330
2,620
440
1,760
2,350
1,830
520
9,500
4,600
4,900
35,100
2,680
32,420
140
2 ,030
5.050
7,220
'9,360
ac tua 1 ,
o ha? be
1985
4.700
8,600
13.300
2,080
5.670.
4,760
5.650
1,590
5,260
1,640
780
5.270
45.000
17,600
1,760
15,840
8,100
2,600
5,500
400
5,800
2,200
3.600
31,900
6.960
24.940
5,500
2.480
3.020
440
1,960
2 , 600
1,980
620
10,500
4,9^0
5.600
42,400
3,250
39,150
145
2 , 2 70
6.000
8,415
93,565
Put only
en Cir-pat
5.500
9,400
14.900.'
2,350
6,720
5,640
6,700
1,840
5,950
1,830
930
5.940
52,600
21,900
2,200
19,700
10,080
3,330
6,750
450
6,800
2,680
4.120
39,230
8,660
30,570
6,070
2,740
3,330
440
2, 160
2.850
2. 130
720
11,520
5,310
6.210
50,750
3.960
46,790
150
2 550
6.950
9,650
109. .'-3
a bou t 10
-ar-i : itv
1963-lVi
4.5
3.2
3.6
4.8
4.7
5.3
6.8
4.2
2.5
2.2
6.2
4.4
4. 1
5.8
8.9
6.8
5.8
5.3
6.1
2.3
7.5
4.3
9.5
6.0
2.2
6.9
2.6
0.0
7.4
0.0
} .4
2 . 5
3.1
0.4
:.3
0.6
4.6
4.6
10.4
-•-
0.0
2.4
6.1
4.6
4 . j
^.rv-th -ate
: ,, .-1990
3.0
1 .5
2. 1
2.4
3.8
3.4
3.6
3.0
2.3
2.1
4.0
2.5
2.2
4.0
13.0
3.5
3.9
6.6
2.9
2.1
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.8
6.2
3.2
1.5
0.5
2.5
0.0
1.8
1 .6
1.1
3.-
: .5
0.7
2.2
3.3
3.-
3.2
0.7
2 .0
;.s
""
on total production within 0.:- rJ Past: *>,*ai J . i-*- . " .\^?r ica:» Paper In^t Ltut*1, Ui 1 \ 1 °":- . p . 70 • J.i; ,1 I\M
-------
a "peak" into,a key year for growth into calculations for the. base periods.
This has the effect of showing a "high" growth rate for the period pre-
ceding 1973 and a "low" growth rate for the period 1973 to 1990. Second,
we have shown declining production for 1974 and 1975 before resumption of
"normal" growth rates, to reflect an economic slowdown. Third, we bive
shown a declining rate of growth for most grades of paper beyond 1980.
The forecasts in terms of tonnage are consistent with Tong-term trends and
the outlook for paper demand on a grade-by-grade basis.
In the paper category, the highest growth rates forecast are for
books, writing, bristols and special industrial papers (3.0 to 4.0 percent
per year) while the lowest rates are in groundwood printing paper, news-
print, packaging and tissue at 2.1 per count to 2.4 percent per year. In
paperboard, the most impressive gains will be made in the containerboard
uses--3.8 percent per year, while many types of paperboard that traditionally
use high waste paper bontent will decline or grow only at a low rate--
setup boxboard, gypsum liner, folding boxboard, and tube, can, and drum
paper-board. However, the recycled types of containerboard (linerboard
and corrugating medium will grow at rates well in excess of other recycled
grades and of the virgin fiber types as recycling establishes something of
a unique growth pattern in these grades (Table 91). The use of hard-pressed
board will grow significantly--3.2 percent per year—as new end uses open
up in building products and related uses.
With this wide range in demand patterns, the makeup of the grade
categories will lead to changes in the availability of some important end
use products. This means that raw materials options and waste utilization
options will change somewhat in the future. For example, containerboard
(domestic use) will be 29.7 percent of total consumption in 1990, compared
to 24.9 percent in 1972. Result: relatively more demand for unbleached
fiber for use in corrugated containers -and increased availability of con-
tainers that are discarded. Thus, while absolute tonnage will increase in
all categories, the makeup of the grade profile will change, too. In turn,
the composition of the paper component of the waste stream will also change
over time.
V
It should be obvious from the forecasts that those products that
constitute the greatest percentage of demand also create the greatest
amount of solid waste and also the greatest opportunity for recovery for
recycling.
The demand profile given dictates in what grades the paper in-
dustry must increase its producing capacity, since 1972 and 197.3 saw the
industry running nearly "flat out" with little new capacity scheduled for
completion in the next 2 years. The raw materials options are thus "open"
in the sense that both virgin and recycled fibers can be chosen to increase
191
-------
the industry's output in the near future. Probably only in World War II
did such a comparable condition previously exist in the paper industry. And,
as has been shown in the summary data for this chapter, the n ;overy of
waste paper for recycling purposes will likely increase rapidly in the fu-
ture, more rapidly than total demand for paper products will increase.
Total paper demand (consumption) is related to real GNP and popu-
lation growth. Working from published forecasts of population and real
GNP (in 1958 prices), we related total paper demand to these basic growth
indicators (Table 92). Total paper demand will increase from 617 pounds
per capita in 1972 to 840 pounds per capita in 1990, an increase of 36 per-
cent in 18 years; this compares to about a 60 percent increase in the 18
years prior to 1972 (Table 92, Figure 31). Likewise, related to GNP,
paper demand will decline from 81S400 tons per billion dollars real GNP
in 1972 to 75,300 tons per billion dollars real GNP in 1990. This relation-
ship has ranged from 76,000 to 81,000 tons (seldom above) since 1947. The
decline forecast reflects the fact that service sectors of the economy
will grow more important relative to manufactured products in the next 2
decades. The same data are also given for the paper and paperboard sectors
of paper demand (Table 92).
Waste Paper Generation
Relating Waste Paper Generation to Total Demand: Our orientation
in this study was to characterize the mixed municipal waste stream. Thus,
we have viewed waste paper from that perspective and constructed a profile
of waste paper generation on the basis of its impact on municipal solid
waste. Of course, the quantity of paper generated as waste relates directly
to total consumption of paper.
By their nature, paper products are not designed for permanence--
they are designed to do a job and to be discarded or recycled through the
manufacturing process. In practice, some paper products do have a per-
manence and long-term value--books, filing records, construction products
and the like.
For the most part, however, waste paper is created as rapidly
as it is produced, purchased and used as a product. In some cases, the
life of the paper product is probably much shorter than the time it took
to deliver it to the customer. The newspaper is a classic example. Usually
there is a several months lag between the time that a pulpwood tree is
harvested and the daily newspaper imprints it and sells it. The reader
discards the paper within minutes and the "value" in the product (to nearly
every reader) lasts no more than 24 hours because it is replaced by yet
another edition. Instant waste! It is then either collected for recycling
192
-------
TABLE 92
PAPER CONSUMPTION RELATIONSHIPS TO POPULATION AND GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1975^
1980
1985
1990
Population
(000)
144,126
146,631
149,188
152,271
154,878
157,553
160,184
163,026
165,931
168,903
171,984
174,882
177,830
180,667
183,672
186,504
.189,197
191,833
194,237
196,485
198,629
200,619
202,677
204,879
207,045
208,842
210,400
215,000
230,000
244,000
260,000
Gross Nac'l.
Product In
1958 Prices
(Real- CNP)
(5 Billion)
309.9
323.7
244.1
355.3
383.4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
466.1
452.5
447.3
475. 9_
487.7
497.2
529.8
551.0
481.1
617.8
658.1
675.2
706.6
725.6
722.5
745.9
790.7
837.4
860.0
1,040.0
1,250.0
1,450.0
(Pounds per capita and
All Grades
Total Consumption
thousand tons per S billion GNP)
Paper Paperboard
Total Consumption Total Consumption
000 Tons Per
Tons
COOP)
24,749
26.0C3
26,695
29,012
30,561
29,017
31,360
31,379
34,619
36,496
35,268
35,119
38,725
39,138
40,312
42,216
43,715
46,384
49,102
52 , 680
51,945
55,664
58,915
57,940
59,563
64,385
67,240
66,490
79,360
93,565
109,240
Lbs/Capita
343.4
355.9
331.0
381.1
394.6
368.3
391.6
385.0
418.5
432.2
410.1
401.6
435.5
433.3
439.0
452.7
462.1
483.6
505.6
536.2
522.8 .
554.9
581.4
565.6
575.3
616.6
639.2 "
618.5
690.1
766.9
840.3
$ Billion
Real GNP
79.9 -
80.6
76.2
81.7
79.7
78.4
76.0
77.1
79.3
81.8
77.9
78.5
81.4
80.3
81.1
79.7
79.3
79.8
79.5
80.0
76.9
78.8
81.2
80.2
79.9
81.4
80.3
77.3
76.3
74.9
75.3
Tons
(OOP)
13,167
14,062
13,645
15,333
16.310
15,620
16,232
16,360
17,698
19,306
18,475
18,103
20,118
20,546
20,955
21,770
22,418
23,729
25,160
27,314
27,257
28,532
30,161
30,054
30,478
32.343
33,748
33,935
39,720
46,000
52,800
Lbs/Captta
182.7
191.8
182.9
202.2
211.3
198.9
203.4
201.5 '
214.1
229.5
215.8
208.0
: 226.3
227.4
228.2
233.5
237.0
247.4
259.1
278.0
274.4
284.4
297.6
293.4
294.4
309.7
320.8
315.6
258.4
377.0
406.2
000 Tons Per
? Billion
Real GNP
42.5
43.4
42.1
43.2
42.5
30.5
39.3
40.2
40.4
43.4
40.8
4P.5
42.3
42.1
42.2
41.1
40.7
40.8
40.7
41.5
40.1
40.4
41.6 "
41.6
40.9
40.9
40.3
39.5
38.2
36.8
36.4
Tons
(OOP)
9.1PP
9,299
8,942
10,868
11,449
10,654
12,229
11,970
13,582
13,928
13,728
13,790
15,021
15,150
15,892
16,816
17,455
18,522
19,670'
21,336
20,635
22,575
24,009
23,325
23,711
26,163
27,445
26,470
32,420
39,150
46,790
Lbs/Capita
126.3
126.8
119.9
143.3
148.3
135.7
153.2
147.4
164.4
165.7
160.4
158.5
168.9
167.7
173.0
180.3
184.5
193.1
202 . 5
217.2
207.8
225.0
236.9
227.7
229.0
250.6
260.9
246.2
281.9
320.9
360.0
000 Tons Per
S Billion
Real CNP
29.4
28.7
27.6
30.6
29.9
27.0
29.6
29.4
31.0
31.2
30.3
30.8
31.6
- 31.1
32.0
31.7
31.7
31.9
31.8
32.4
30.6
32.0
33.1
32.3
31.8
33.0
32.8
30.8
31.2
31.3
32.3
Construction Paper and Paperbo
Total Consumption
Tons
(OOP)
2,333
2,579
1,979
2,647
2,652
2.6P4
2, 744
2,914
3,260
3,116
2,928
3.104
3,439
3,266
3,310
3,485
3,702
3,980
4,122
3,881
3,905
4,396
4,592
4,418
5,228
5,734
5,912
5,950
7,220
8,415
9,650
Lbs/Capita
32.4
35.2
26.5
34.9
34.4
33.2
34.4
35.9
39.4
37.1
34.2
35.7
38.7
36 -.2
36.0
37.4
39.1
41.5
42.4
39.5
39.3
43.8
45.3
43.1
50.5
43.9
ft 56.2
ii.3
62.8
69.0
74.2
000 Tons
S Billio
Real CN
7.5
8.0
6.1
7.5
6.9
6.6
6.7
7.2
7.4
7.0
6.5
6.9
7.2
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.9
6.7
5.9
5.8
6.2
6.3
6.)
6.0
7.2
7. I
6.9
6.?
6. r
£/ Preliminary
Source: "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard 1974," American Paper Institute, 1974.
Midwest Research Institute forecasts.
-------
900
800
700
5
z
o
500
400
300
90
J I
•A/ ' V
I 60
19J7 ic 4' iO .-!
-\-
' ^\,
'V-
1790
Figure 31 - Paper Consumption in Pounds per Capita
and 1,000 Tons per $ Billion of GNP
-------
or disposed of in a solid waste management system (after some storage
period by the consumer).
Consumption of paper products has increased dramatically as a
consequence of economic activity and the convenience of one-time use pro-
duct substitution ("disposables") for "reusable" products (e.g., paper
towels instead of cloth towels). Markets for many paper products have
developed along these lines:
1. Products that have a short useful life;
2. Products that have a single time use, and cannot be reused;
3. Products for which there is a continuous and growing need;
4. Products that are "convenient" to use because of their
"disposable" or "throw away", characteristics; and
5. Products that incorporate more material per unit of use.
Thus, the growth areas of the 1960's were: tissue products,
e.g., double-ply toilet tissue to displace single-ply; paper toweling to
replace cloth napkins, etc.; paper cups, plates, etc.; communications
papers (all types) and packaging papers, all of which meet some or all of
the "market objectives" set out above. This is why economic growth trans-
lated into increased demand for paper products, and.will continue to do so
in the years ahead. Paper products are key elements in the nation's econ-
omy, and economic growth means increasing paper demand (i.e., tons).
This leads to solid waste generation in proportion to total con-
sumption. In addition, from 1945 to 1973, a period of 27 years, the rate
of recycling of paper declined. Consequently, proportionately more virgin
fiber was utilized and proportionately less waste paper was withdrawn from
the waste stream. Thus, there was in this 30-year period greater solid
waste disposal than the total increase in consumption would have indicated.
Calculating Waste Paper Generation Rates
Not all paper that is manufactured and used ends up "instantly"
in the municipal waste stream. For this reason, we calculated current
waste paper generation as it relates to municipal solid waste. There are
several factors that determine whether the paper product will enter the
municipal waste stream essentially as produced and used by the purchaser.
They are:
1. Lifetime of the product. A product "inventoried" or in use
for more than 1 year will not affect the waste stream until later--books,
business records, appliances, shoeboard, etc.
195
-------
This affects the total waste generation in a given year when total
consumption is growing. Thus, if a product has a lifetime of 5 years, then
purchased in 1970 will be discarded in 1975. In the meantime, total con-
sumption of that product will likely increase and it will appear in 1975
that we do not discard as much as we consume. It is the time delay and
increased output that causes this (e.g., 1975's output will go into use
while 1970"s output will come into the waste stream). The time delay effects
of product use were put into our calculations.
2. End use of the product that leads to discard into another
media or waste stream. (This category we refer to as "diverted" from the
waste stream.)
Not all paper products retain their original form or are dis-
carded into the municipal waste stream. The principal examples are:
toilet paper which enters sewage systems; cigarette paper which is burned
in use and a number of products that lose their identity as paper and are
not discarded to municipal waste in a conventional manner. Also included:
gypsum wallboard and roofing felts (demolition waste), auto panelboard,
funiture panels, shoe board and the like. We account for this category
to realistically assess the potentially recoverable paper that remains in
the municipal waste stream, in a form identifiable as paper. That is, paper
incorporated into other products becomes identified with them rather then
as a paper discard.
Given these two categories, we first determined what reduction
of waste generation would occur in any given year as a ratio of total con-
sumption for that year. These ratios were based partly on our own judgment
and partly on the basis of related measures that could be applied. The
methodology and derivation of most of these factors were detailed in a
previous MRI study. —' However, the basis of calculation for each grade
is set out in Appendix E.
The calculation of gross municipal waste paper generation is
given for selected years from 1965 to 1990 (Tables 93-99).I/ Of course,
the starting point for each grade of paper is total demand. From that we
initially deducted a converting scrap that might occur in that grade (based
on known or estimated scrap rates, e.g., newsprint was about 3 percent
based on scrap generation rates reported to the American Newspapers Publishers
Association. This resulted in "net" consumption, i.e., that part going out
as finished product.
II "The Role of Nonpackaging Paper in Solid Waste Management, 1966-1976,"
op. cit. See pages 51-63. Also see Appendix E for details.
27 Table 95 gives a complete detail of all calculations for 1972 while
the other tables in this source were developed on the same basis,
but the calculation detail was omitted.
196
-------
TABLE 93
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER. 1965
VO
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
.Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Total
Demand
8,400
6,000
3,150
4,750
2,850
25,150
11,200
1,350
3,900
550
1,400
1,750
20,150
1,700
2,550
4,250
(In thousand
Less
Converting
Scrap
350
600
250
250
150
1,600
1 , 2 50
100
700
50
150
.200
2,450
150
200
350
tons)
Net
Demand
8,050
5,300
2,900
4,500
2,700
23,450
9,950
1,250
3,200
500
1..250
1,550
17,700
1,550
2,350
3,900
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
100
600
400
100
1,050
2,250
200
600
50
--
__ .
250
1,100
1,400
2,100
3,500
Entering
Municipal
Waste
7,950
4,700
2,500
4,400
1,650
21,200
9,750
650
3,150
500
1,250
1,300
16,600
150
250
400
Gross Waste
Discard
8,300
5,400
2,750
4,650
1,800
22,900
11,000
750
3,850
550
1,400
1,500
19,050
300
450
750
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
49,550
1.000
4,500
0.091
45,050
0.909
6,850
0.138
38,200
0.771
42,700
0.862
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations,
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 94
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER, 1970
co
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Total
Demand
9,850
7,350
3,850
5,300
3,750
30,100
13,950
1,550
4,100
450
1,700
1,500
23,250.
1,700
2,850
4,550
(In thousand
Less
Converting
Scrap
400
900
600
250
200
2,350
1,550
100
1,050
50
200
150
3,100
150
200
350
tons)
Net
Demand
9,450
6,450
3,250
5,050
3,550
27,750
12,400
1,450
3,050
400
1,500
1,350
20,150
1,550
2,650
4,200
•
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
100
700
400
100
1,350
2,650
250
700
50
0
0
200
1,200
1,400
2,400
3,800
Entering
Municipal
Waste
9,350
5,750
2,850
4,950
2,200
25,100
12,150
750
3,000
400
1,500
1,150
18,950
150
250
400
Gross Waste
Discard
9,750
6,650
3,450
5,200
2,400
27,450
13,700
850
4,050
450
1,700
1,300
22,050
300
450
750
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
57,900
1.000
5,800
0.100
52,100
0.900
7,650
0.132
44,450
0.768
50,250
0.888
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 95
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER, 1972
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Grand Totals
Ratio to total demand
(In thousand tons)
Total
Demand
.10,400
8,000
4,300
5,700
4,000
32,400
16,000
2,000
4,450
450
1 , 650
1,550
26,100
2, 100
3,800
5,900
64,400
1,000
less
Converting
Scrap
400
950
350
300
200
2,200
1,750
150
.800
50
200
150
3,100
150
300
450
5,750
0.089
Net
Demand
10,000
7,050
3,950
5,400
3,800
30,200
14,250
1,850
3,650
400
1,450
1,400
23,000
1,950
3,500
5,450
58,650
0.911
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
100
800
500
100
1,450
2,950
300
950
50
--
--
200
1,500
1,750
3,150
4,900
9,350
0.145
Entering
Municipal
Waste
9,900
6,250
3,450
5,300
2,350
27,250
13,950
900
3,600
400
1,450
1,200
21,500
200
350
550
49,300
0.765
Cross Waste
Discard
10,300
7,200
3,800
5,600
2,550
29,450
15,700
1,050
4,400
450
1,650
1,350
24,600
350
650
1,000
55,050
0.855
Ratio For
Diverted/Delayed
0.01
0.11
0.13
0.02
0.38
--
0.02
0.50
0.02
0.02
. 0.01
0.15
—
0.90
0.90
--
0.16-X
0 . U5^
Ratio "or
Entry To
Municipal Waste
0 . 99
0.55
0 . E •
0.96"
0.62
--
0.96
0.50
0.98
0.93
0.99
0.65
0.10
0.10
--
O.S4-7
O.SSS^
Scrap Katio
To De-and
0.04
0. 12
0.0& *
0.03
0.05
-
0. 11
0.07
0.18
0.10
0.12
0.10
~ -
0.08
0.08
--
0.089^'
a/ Calculated frora inidivdual grade totals to net demand.
b_/ Calculated as the ratio to total demand.
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 96
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER. 1975
o
o
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
..Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
' Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
v Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Total
Demand
10,550
8,700
4,900
5,950
3,950
34,050
16,550
1,800
4,450
400
1,550
1,700
26,450
1,950
4,150
6,100
(In thousand
Less
Converting
Scrap
400
1,050
400
300
200
2,350
1,800
150
800
50
200
150
3,150
150
350
500
tons)
Net
• Demand
10,150
7,650
4,500
5,650
3,750
31,700
14,750
1,650
3,650
350
1,350
1,550
23,300
1,800
3,800
5,600
•
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
100
850
600
100
1,450
3,100
300
800
50
—
150
250
1,550
1,600
3,400
5,000
Entering
Municipal
Waste
10,450
6,800
3,900
5,550
2,300
29,000
14,450
850
3,600
350
1,200
1,300
21,750
200
400
600
Gross Waste
Discard
10,450
7,850
4,300
5,850
2,500
30,950 .
16,250
1,000
4,400
400
1,400
1,450
24,900
350
750
1,100
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
66,600
1.000
6,000
0.090
60,600
0.910
9,650
0.145
50,950
0.765
56,950
0.855
Note: Values were rounded to the nea-rest 50,000 tons in these calculations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 97
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER. 1980
(In thousand tons)
Less
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
Total
Demand
11,900
10,500
6,000
6,850
4,600
39,850.
20,950
2,400
4,950 .
450
1,750
1,900
32,400
. 2,150
5,050
7,200
79,350
1.000
Converting Net
Scrap
500
1,25.0
500
350
250.
2 , 8 50
2 , 3.00.
200
900
50
200
200
3,850
200
400
600
7,300.
0.092
Demand
1 1 , 400
9,250
5,500
6,400
4,350
36,900
18,650
2., 2 00.
4,050
400
1,550
1,700
28,550
1,950 -
4,650
6,600
72,050
0.908
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
100
1,000
700
150
1 , 650
3,600
400
100
100
0
0 .
250
850
1,750
4,200
5,950
10,400
0.131
Entering
Municipal
Waste
11,300
8,250
4,800
6,250
2,700
33,300
18,250
2,100
3,950
400
1,550
1,450
27,700
200
450
650
61,650
0.777
Gross Waste
Discard
11,800
9,500
5,300
6,600
2,950
36,150
20,550
2,300
4,850
450
1,750
1,650
31,550
400
850
1,250
68,950
0.869
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 98
PROFILE OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION OF PAPER. 1985
NJ
o
ro
Paper Grade Category
.Newsprint .
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
(In thousand tons)
Total
;ory Demand
13,300
12,500
7,250
7,700
5,250
46,000
26,100
3,050
5,500
450
1,950
2,100
39,150
tion
2,400
6,000
8,400
93,550
nd 1.000
Less
Converting
Scrap
550
1,500
600
400
250
3,300
2,850
200
1,000
50
250
200
4,550
200
500
700
8,550
0.091
Net
Demand
12,750
11,000
6,650
7,300
5,000
42,700
23,250
2,850
4,500
400
' 1,700
:,900
34,600
2,200
5,500
7,700
85,000
O.°08
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
150
1,200
900
150
1,900
4,300
500
1,450
. 100
0
0
300
2,350
2,000
4,950
6,950
, 13,600
0.145
Entering
Municipal
Waste
12,600
9,800
5,750
7,150
3,100
38,400
22,750
1,400
4,400
400
1,700
1,600
32,250
200
550
750
71,400
.0.763
Gross Waste
Discard
13,150
11,3'QO
6,350
7,550
3,350
41,700
25,600
1,600
5,400
450
1,950
1,800
36,800
400
1,050
1,450
79,950
0.854
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 99
N>
o
u>
Paper Grade Category
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Ind. Conv. Pkg.
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Set-up Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Wet Machine and Construction
Paper
Insulating and Hard Pressed
Board
Total Construction
Grand Totals
Ratio to Total Demand
Total
;y_ Demand
14,900
14,7.00
8,550
8,700
5,950
52,800
32,450
3,500
6,050
450
2,150
2,200
46,800
2,700
6,950
9,650
109,250
1,000
(In thousand
Less
Converting
Scrap
600
1,750
700
450
300
3,800
3,600
250
1,100
50
250
200
5,450
200
550
750
10,000
0.092
tons)
Net
Demand
14,300
12,950
7,850
8,250
5,650
49,000
28,850
3,250
4, -950
400
1,900
2,000
41,350
2,500
6.400
8,900
99,250
0.908
LUIN ur rAftK, iyyi
Diverted or
Delayed Entry
To Solid Waste
150
1,450
1,000
200
2,150
4,950
600
1,650
100
0
0
300
2,650
2,250
5,750
8,000
15,600
0.143
)
Entering
Municipal
Waste
14,150
11,500
6,850
8,050
3,500
44,050
28,250
1,600
4,850
400
1,900
1,700
38,700
250
650
900
83,650
0.770
Gross Waste
14,750
13,250
7,550
8,500
47,850
31,850
1 850
5,950
450
2 150
1 900
44,150
450
1.200
.1,650
93,650
0.860
Note: Values were rounded to the nearest 50,000 tons in these calculations
Source: Midwest Research Institute. calculations.
-------
For printing and writing paper, the amount diverted is about 12
percent, which is primarily a reflection of the fact that books and office
records are retained for long periods and some may be retained nearly per-
manently. By contrast, newspapers and packaging papers have very low rates
of delay in discard because they have little permanent value. Tissue is
considered a high loss category because a large proportion is toilet tis-
sue and is used and discarded outside municipal solid waste systems.
In paperboard, the packaging grades enter waste essentially as
produced and used. The "other containerboard" category contains gypsum
linerboard and industrial products such as panelboard. For this reason,
about 50 percent of this category diverts from municipal waste. Similarly,
the construction grades go into "permanent" structures for periods of 15
to 50 years after which they show up in special waste streams outside of
"normal" municipal waste.
The total waste generation (including converting scrap) is about
85 percent of total consumption for 1972. By 1990, the percent entering
municipal waste will have increased incrementally to about 86 percent of
consumption. We emphasize that these values at this point are gross waste
generation figures and have not yet been adjusted for waste paper removed
from the waste stream for recycling or other uses. The calculation of net
waste entering disposal systems follows in a later step.
Waste Paper Generated by Source
Once the gross generation of waste paper is calculated, it is
possible to allocate waste generation by source, a procedure which is as
much judgmental as it is based on good source data. Our approach was to
allocate waste paper to residential and nonresidential (i.e., commercial/
institutional and industrial) on the basis of end use.
In this case, the allocation of waste source was also based on
previous MRI work and details developed for each grade in Appendix E.*
The allocations were first made for the base year of 1972 and then to 1975
to 1990 on the basis of the same ratios developed for earlier years. The
results are given in Tables 100 to 104 for the years 1972 to 1990. Once
again, these calculations allocate gross waste generation including con-
verting scrap and have not at this point made allowance for removal from
the waste stream for recycling.
* "Salvage Markets for Materials in Solid Waste," op.cit.' (Chapter IV);
and "The Components of Solid Waste," 14 pp. 1968, see pages 10-14.
Proprietary study by Midwest Research Institute.
204
-------
TABLE 100
WASTE PAPER GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1972
(In thousand tons)
Grade
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Industrial Coverting
and Packaging
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Setup Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Construction
Insulating
Total Construction
Gross Waste Converting
Discarded Household^' Nonhousehold Scrap
10,300
7,200
3,800
5,600
2.550
8,900
3,750
700
3,450
1,650
1,000
2,500
2,750
1,850
700
400
950
350
300
200
29,450
24,600
350
650
1,000
18,450
6,300
100
150
250
8,800
15,200
100
200
300
2,200
15,700
1,050
4,400
450
1,650
1,350
1,000
450
2,900
' 350
1,000
600
12,950
450
700
50
450
600
1,750
150
' 800
50
200
150
3,100
150
300
450
55,050
1.000
25,000
0.454
24,300
0.441
5,750
0.105
Grand Total
Ratio to Total
sj Calculations for household and nonhousehold waste were based upon the
discard patterns for each grade after adjustment for converting scrap
from gross waste generated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
205
-------
TABLE 101
WASTE PAPER GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1975
Grade
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Industrial Converting
and Packaging
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Setup Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Construction
Insulating and Hard
Pressed
Total Construction
Grand Total
Ratio to Total
(In
Gross Waste
Discarded
10,450
7,850
4,300
ng
5,850
2,500
30,950
16,250
d 1,000
4,400
400
ce 1,400
ard 1,450
24,900
350
750
n 1,100
56,950
1.000
thousand tons)
Household^/
9,050
4,100
800
3,600
1,600
19,150
1,000
400
2,900
300
850
650
6,100
100
150
250
25,500
0.448
Nonhousehcld
1,000
2,700
3,100
1,950
700
9,450
13,450
450
700
50
350
650
15,650
100
250
350
25,450
0.447
Converting
Scrap
400
1,050
400
300
200
2,350
1,800
150
800
50
200
150
3,150
150
350
500
6,000
0.105
a/ Calculations were based upon the discard patterns for each grade after
adjustment for converting scrap from gross waste generated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
206
-------
TABLE 102
WASTE PAPER GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1980
(In thousand tons)
Gross Waste
Discarded
11,800
9,500
5,300
ng
6,600
2,950
36,150
20,550
d 2,300
4,850
450
ce 1,750
ard 1,650
31,550
400
850
n 1,250
Household^/
10,200
4,950
950
4,050
1,900
22,050
1,300
1,050
3,150
350
1,100
700
7,650
100
200
300
Nonhousehold
1,100
3,300
3,850
2,200
800
11,250
16,950
1,050
800
50
450
750
20,050
100
250
350
Converting
Scrap
500
1,250
500
. 350
250
2,850
2,300
200
900
50
200
200
3,850
200
400
600
Grade
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Industrial Converting
and Packaging
Tissue
Total Paper
Containerboard
Other Containerboard
Folding Boxboard
Setup Boxboard
Milk and Food Service
Other Folding Boxboard
Total Paperboard
Construction
Insulating and Hard
Pressed
Total Construction
Grand Total 68,950 30,000 31,650 7,300
Ratio to Total 1.000 0.435 0.459 0.106
a/ Calculations were based upon the discard patterns for each grade after
adjustment for converting scrap from gross waste generated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
207
-------
TABLE 103
WASTE PAPER GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1985
(In Thousand Tons)
Gross Waste Converting
a / -a /
Grade Discarded Household— Nonhousehold— Scrap
Newsprint 13,150 11,350 1,250 550
Printing Paper 11,300 5,900 3,900 1,500
Fine Paper 6,350 1,150 4,600 600
Industrial Converting
and Packaging 7,550 4,650 2,500 400
Tissue 3.350 2.150 950 250
Total Paper 41,700 25,200 13,200 3,300
Containerboard 25,600 1,600 21,150 2,850
Other Containerboard 1,600 700 700 200
Folding Boxboard . 5,400 3,500 900 1,000
Setup Boxboard 450 350 50 50
Milk and Fold Service 1,950 1,200 500 250
Other Folding Boxboard 1.800 800 800 200
Total Paperboard 36,800 8,150 24,100 4,550
Construction 400 100 100 200
Insulating 1.050 200 350 500
Total Construction 1,450 300 450 700
Grand Total 79,950 33,650 37,750 8,550
Ratio to Total 1.000 0.421 0.472 0.107
a_/ Calculations were based upon the discard patterns for each grade after
adjustment for converting scrap from gross waste generated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
208
-------
14,750
13,250
7,550
8,500
3,800
12,750
6,900
. 1,350
5,250
2,450
1,400
4,600
5,500
2,800
1.050
600
1,750
700
450
300
TABLE 104
WASTE PAPER GENERATED BY SOURCE. 1990
(In thousand tons)
Gross Waste Converting
a /
Grade ; Discarded Household— Nonbousehold Scrap
Newsprint
Printing Paper
Fine Paper
Industrial Converting
and Packaging
Tissue
Total Paper 47,850 28,700 15,350 3,800
Containerboard 31,850 2,000 26,250 3,600
Other Containerboard 1,850 800 800 250
Boxboard 5,950 3,900 950 1,100
Setup Boxboard . 450 350 50 50
Milk and Food Service 2,150 1,350 550 250
Other Boxboard 1.900 850 850 200
Total Paperboard 44,150 9,250 29,450 5,450
Construction 450 100 150 200
Insulating and Hard
Pressed 1,200 250 400 550
Total Construction 1,650 350 550 750
Grand Total
Ratio to Total
93,650
1.000
38,300
0.409
45,350
0.484
10,000
0.107
a/ Calculations were based upon the discard patterns for each grade after
adjustment for converting scrap from gross waste generated.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
209
-------
The allocation to the basic generation sources follows the pro-
duct to its ultimate destination in use and finally in discard. Thus,
newspapers largely going to individual homes (as opposed to commercial
papers such as the Wall Street Journal) show up as household waste. Print-
ing paper is used in offices and general business,but the bulk of printing
paper tonnage goes into the home as books, magazines, direct mail aJver-
tising, and other printed material. By contrast, fine paper is largely
a business paper category since it includes stationery , computer print-
out, forms and the like. Industrial converting and packaging is split
almost evenly between homes (e.g., grocery sacks, wrapping paper) and
business (bags, and "industrial" grades) paper. Tissue, as a personal use
produc^ is consumed largely in the home as towels, napkins, toilet and
facial tissue; in the business sector^it is used in the same manner except
for small amounts of packaging tissue. Overall, about 45 percent of paper
products showed up in households in 1972; 44 percent is in the nonhousehold
sector; and 10 percent as converting scrap, created when rolls of paper
are transformed into finished products.
In the paperboard group, the sources of waste generation reverse.
Containerboard (i.e., corrugated containers) is a commercial product; we
estimate only 6 percent gets into the home while 11 percent is converting
scrap and 83 percent is discard in the nonhousehold sector. However, it
is .worthy of note that about one-third of the latter tonnage goes to
industrial plants such as assembly plants (e.g., autos, appliances, TV,
etc.) while the remaining two-thirds goes to wholesale and retail stores
(e.g., supermarkets, drug and department stores). Boxboard is largely a
packaging material that goes into the home containing consumer products
(e.g., food). Likewise, milk and food service is predominately bleached
paperboard used to package consumer food products, (e.g., milk, frozen food,
etc.) The final grouping in paperboard is split between the two major
generation sources. (Note that construction products have been previously
shown in the "diverted" category^) The final ratios (for 1972) are 26
percent paperboard in the home, 62 percent in commercial/institutional
(most of which is corrugated boxes) and 12 percent converting scrap.
The construction category affects both household and nonhouse-
hold waste sources. In total, then, for 1972, the composite waste sources
.are: household, 45 percent; nonhousehold, 44 percent; and converting scrap
11 percent (Table 100 for 1972).
Each grade classification was extended on largely the same basis
to 1990. The total gross waste paper generation increases from 55.0
million tons in 1972 to 93.7 million tons in 1990. The household sector
will have declined to 41 percent in 1990; nonhousehold increasing to 48
percent and converting scrap remains at 11 percent (Table 104). This
shift is largely the result of containerboard consumption increasing more
210
-------
rapidly than other grades. Details for intermediate years is given in
Tables 101 to 104 for 1975, 1980, 1985 and 1990.
The distribution of gross waste paper generation by source is
now estimated. The next step is to determine the recovery and recycling
demand for waste paper and various grades as a preliminary to forecasting
how and what removal from the waste stream will take place in the future.
Waste Paper Recycling in the Paper Industry
Historically, the paper industry has always been a large consumer
of waste paper for raw materials and has increased its tonnage use of
.waste paper steadily to the point that in 1972 about 13 million tons were
used for recycling in the paper industry. However, over the last 27 years
the rate of recycling has dec lined--from 34.6 percent in 1945 to 20.1 per-
cent in 1972.*
At the end of 1972, the paper industry stood poised on a "new"
raw materials use threshold. The industry could follow history to lower
rates of recycling for a few more years or a "turnaround" could occur in
which recycled fiber began a comeback as a source of raw materials. Evi-
dence could be compiled to support either outcome.**
In the early 1970's, conditions in the raw materials supply
situation were changing rapidly. External forces were at work on the in-
dustry in the form of government, and public pressure and even customer
pressure to "recycle." At the same time, the industry was entering the
greatest raw materials and capacity squeeze it had' experienced since World
War II. Major companies that had never recycled significant quantities
of waste paper were quietly installing incremental capacity to recycle
old corrugated containers and old newspapers (both post-consumer waste
goods). Other long-time recyclers were increasing output to meet booming
paper demand. In the meantime, virgin fiber supplies were not so readily
available^as weather, labor shortages and high prices combined to restrict
growth in supply; most companies were operating at full pulp capacity too.
As the.whole industry turned to waste paper to fill increasing
demand, exports of waste paper also rose by more than 100 percent over 1972.
* For the latter calculation American Paper Institute data were used.
U.S. Bureau of Census data for 1972 would give a recycling rate of
17.5 percent but MRI considers.the API as more comprehensive and
complete data source today on waste paper recycling.
** See "Paper Recycling, the Art of the Possible, 1970 to 1985," op. cit.
211
-------
A severe waste paper supply shortage developed and prices of waste paper
doubled in a matter of months. Nonetheless, the industry h.'d plans to use
1 million tons more waste paper in 1973 over 1972 (a good year) and exports
added another 0.3 million tons increase in demand. In all, the total de-
mand for waste paper, including net exports, was 13.5 million tons in 1972
and 14.9 million tons in 1973, up 1.4 million tons or 10 percent. Never
before had the industry experienced a demand increase for waste paper of
1 million tons in 1 year.
In addition, new capacity to utilize waste paper was committed
by the industry and coming on-stream in 1974 and 1975. In fact, the Ameri-
can Paper Institute annual capacity survey forecast the use of 15.8 million
tons of waste paper in domestic mills by 1975,* and MRI estimates net
exports of 0.9 million tons for a total demand for 16.7 million tons, up
nearly another 2 million tons in 2 years. However, demand suddenly col-
lapsed in late 1974, and it appears that about 2 years will elapse before
the recycling recurrence will resume with strength.
The paper industry's recycling rate showed a "turnaround" in
1973--from 20.4 percent in 1972 to 21.3 percent in 1973; in 1975, the rate
of recycling will be at the 1973 level. Then a period of uncertainty de-
velops. If the industry brings on substantial new virgin fiber processing
capacity, the recycling rate will remain flat or decline slightly until the
early 1980's. However, we believe it is more likely that companies will
combine recycling capability with virgin fiber capacity, especially for
the use of old corrugated containers (in linerboard and corrugating medium);
also newsprint deinking to make newsprint should expand substantially in
the future. This will mean years of pressure on the industry to recover
higher percentages of the key waste paper grades. At the same time, net
exports of waste paper will likely continue strong in the face of a world-
wide tight virgin fiber supply situation.
Under this scenario, and the fact that our previous forecast of
a turnaround appears to have been "confirmed} **we developed a forecast
of waste paper demcnd in the paper industry from 1973 to 1990, by major
grade category (Table 105). This forecast shows that recovery of waste
paper from the gross waste generated will.climb from 14.3.million tons
in 1973 to 27.3 million tons in 1990, an increase of 91 percent in ll years;.
In addition, we estimate that net exports will rise from 0.6 million tons
in 1973 to 1.6 million tons in 1990 (Table 106). With an additional usage
of 0.4 million tons in other recycling applications, the total demand for
waste paper will be 32.5 million tons in 1990 (Refer to Table 90).
*. "API Capacity 1972-1975, Paper, Paperboard, Wood Pulp," American Paper
Institute, 1973.
** "Paper Recycling, the Art of the Possible, 1970-1985," op. cit.
212
-------
TABLE 105
ESTIMATED USAGE OF WASTE PAPER FOR RECYCLING IN THE
Waste Paper Grade
Mixed Grades
News—post-consumer
News—converting?.'
Total
Corrugated—post-consumer
Corrugated—cuttings—'
Total
Deinking Grades and
Pulp Substitutes
Grand Total
Paper Demand
Recycling Rate
PAPER INDUSTRY BY MAJOR GRADE CATEGORY, 1972-1990
(In thousand tons)
1970
2,639
1,825
410
2,235
2,528
1.552
4,080
liPiZ
12,021
57,835
20.8
1971
2,776
1,754
420
2,174
2,700
1.577
4,277
1,097
12,324
59,440
20.7
1972
3,054
1,880
437
2,317
2,960
1.762
4,722
3jm
13,230
64,356
20.4
1973
3,251
2,129
450
2,579
3,430
1.861
5,291
3^198,
14,317
67,122
21.3
1975
3,215
2,110
440
2,550
3,410
1.820
5,230
3,165
14,160
66,490
21.3
1980
3,670
2,535
500
3,035
5,100
2.305
7,405
1^750
17,860
79,360
22.5
1985
4,185
2,995
550
3,545
7,425
2,870
10,295
' 4^440
22,465
93,565
24.0
1990
4,510
3,375
625
4,000
10,095
3,565
13,650
5±L80_
27,340
109,240
25.0
a/ Based upon calculated printing scrap recovery of 2.8 percent of newsprint demand plus overissue
news at 1.4 percent of newsprint demand.
b/ Based upon 11.0 percent of containerboard mill production (domestic use); calculated from McClenahar
data for cuttings 1969, 1970.
-------
TABLE 106
WASTE PAPER IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. 1960 TO 1990
(In thousand tons)
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1_97_3_ _
1974 est,'
1975
1980
1985
1990
Exports
153
206
209
230
272
292
246
262
253
289
408
419
415
683
1,307
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,650
Imports
NA
NA
NA
NA
87
108
113
86
93
88
67
68
88
87
87
100
100
100
100
Net Exports
.153
206
209
230
185
184
133
176
160
201
341
351
327
596
1,220
900
1,100
1,300
1,550
Source: "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard 1974," American Paper Institute,
1974; forecast by Midwest Research Institute.
214
-------
The grades that will contribute most to the increase in recycling
are old newspapers and corrugated containers. As indicated in Table l.'>5,
the demand for old newspapers (as opposed to converting scrap) will increase
from 2.1 million tons in 1973 to 3.4 million tons in 1990, an increase
of 62 percent. Old corrugated container demand will go from 3.4 million
tons in 1973 to 10.1 million tons in 1990, or 197 percent. However, both
of these increases are less than would be possible if external actions stim-
ulate the industry. Overall the forecast recycling rates led to an un-
spectacular resurgence of recycling in the paper industry.
The details of this forecast are developed in a different way
in a summary table for 1973 and. 1985^ which combines paper production in
the USA by grade with the forecast of waste paper use in each paper grade
detailed by the waste paper grade (e.g., news, corrugated etc.) itself
(Table 107). What this table shows and our analysis confirms is that most
grades that have used waste paper will continue to do sot but only a few
will show significant increases in the rate of recycling—relating once
again the key role that news and corrugated will play.
Overall, we have calculated a recycling rate of 24 percent in
1985 (22.5 million tons of waste paper use) versus 21.3 percent in 1973
(14.3 million tons). Analysis of this table shows where increased re-
cycling will take place, and where it will not (a significant factor in
itself).
The most notable increases will take place in:
* newsprint
* tissue
* kraft linerboard
* recycled linerboard
* recycled corrugating material
* "other" containerboard ,
However, the long-term historic uses of waste paper—combination
boxboard (holding boxboard, set up boxbpard, and other boxboard)--will
continue to be in relative decline in the years ahead. Nothing in recent
statistics and industry activities would indicate that recycled boxboard
will recover and become more important vis-a-vis its competition (bleached
and unbleached kraft paperboard) in the years ahead.*
More detailed development of the recycling forecasts is given in
Appendix E for newsprint, linerboard, corrugating medium, and box-
board.
215
-------
WASTE PAPER USAGE AMD DISTRIBUTION IN TH£ PAPER IXDL'STRY Bt PAPER GRADE AKD TYPE OF t.'.'.'.rE PAPER. 1973 AND 1-185
NJ
Grade Category Demand Paper Use Paper Use
Pa pe r - - Dema nd
Newsprint— production 3,413 14.0 490
Nevaprlnt-'-net imports 7,313
Printing, Writing and Related 13,334 7.0 938
Unbleached Kraft and Ind. Conv. 4,025')
Special Ind. and Other 1,79'J '5 263
Tissue 3,933 30.0 1.179
Total Paperi' 33,748 8.5 2,870
Paperboard - - Product ion
Containerboard--aolid wood pulp
Linerboard 11,067 -- 449
Corrugating Medium 4,127 20.6 849
• Other Contalnerboard-' 2,392 -- £' -- -'
Total Contalnerboard 17,496 7.4 1,298
Boxboard — solid wood pulp 4,191' neg.
Recycled Paperboardi'
Linerboard 289 108.0 310
Corrugating Medium 1,128 80.0 902
Chip and Flllerboard 307 115.0 353
Other Contalnerboard^ 1,386 107.0 1,480
Folding Boxboard 2,522 115.0 2,900
Set-up Boxboard 465 115.0 535
Other Folding Boxboard-' 1,788 116.0 2.080
Total Recycled Paperboard 7,885 109.0 . 8,560
Production 29,572 33.0 9,858
Paperboard Adj. for
Exports—Demand 27,327
Other Paper and Paperboard --Demand
Wet Machine/Board 1341 g() & ^ 5?]
Construction Paper l,840j '
Insulating and Hard-Pressed
Board 4,073
Total Other 6,047 26.3 1,591-''
Molded Pulp and Fiber Pipe -- £'
Grand Totals 69,367
Adj . for Paperboard
Export—Demand 67,122 21.3 14,319
a/ The calculation procedure was as follows: The total production
1973-1976: Paper, Paperboard, Woodpulp." The distribution of
Pulp .Subs
Mixed
7
7
44
47
98
196
50
77
—
127
--
25
14
100
329
820
151
570
2,009
2,136
919
--
919
3.251
News
483
483
-.
14
98
595
1
19
--
20
__
0
8
79
337
. 650
120
443
1,637
1,657
327
--
327
2,579
Corrugated Deinking Production
--
—
15
125
140
355
747
--
1,102
—
273
875
107
611
879
162
907
3,814
4,916
235
--
235
5,291
"--
893
187
858
1,938
44
7
--
51
—
12
5
67
203
551
102
160
1,100
1,151
:09
-.
109
3.198
4.700
8,600
19,750
5,2601
2.420J
5.270
46,000
15,840
5,500
3.600
24,940
5,600
1,760
2,600
400
2,200
2,480
440
1.980
11,860
42,400
39,150
145
2,270
6.000
8,415
96,815
93,565
Paper Paper Use
22.0
--
7.5
5.7
35.4
21.1
13.3
20.0
neg.
12.9
neg.
108.0
80.0
115.0
107.0
115.0
115.0
116.0
105.0
37.0
65.0
71.0
-
20.0
--
24.0
1,030
—
1,480
440
1.900
4,850
2,110
1,100
neg.
3,210
neg.
1,900
2,080
460
2,355
2,850
505
2.300
12,450
15.660
95
1,610
--
1,705
250
22,465
Mixed
30
--
150
90 v
170
440
200
70
..
270
__
150
40
130
520
800
146
630
2,410
2,680
75
985
.-
1.060
5
4.185
News
1,000
—
..
20
190
1,210
0
15
__
15
_.
--
10
100
54O
625
110
490
1,875
1,890
0
280
..
280
165
3,545
Corrugated
--
—
45
260
305
1,810
1,005
.-
2,815
_.
1,675
2,020
140
965
885
160
1.005
6,850
9,665
10
310
..
320
5
10,295
Pulp Subs
Delnklng
.
1.33O
285
1.280
2.895
100
10
--
110
75
10
90
330
540
95
175
1.315
1.425
10
35
--
45
75
4,4-40
and waste paper use came from API "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard. 1974" and "Capacity,
waste paper by paperboard grade for the recycled paperboard category was derived from
McClenahan, "Consumption of Paper Stock by United States' Mills in 1969,
Paperboard." However, "other Folding Boxboard" was used to ba
b/ Franklin Associates calculated usage of wa=te paper in terms o.
the "Other Containerboard" grades (kraftl. but this use could
c/ "Other Containerboard" consists of: tube, can and drum— Il~; gy
solid woodpulp type and 37% recycled paperboard grades.
d/ "Other Boxboard" consists of: tube, can and drum — 33'.; exports
paperboard grades.
lance the
linerboard
and 1970
." This source
total recycled paperboard
product!
on for domestic
gave the
grades
use; In
basis for columns 2 through
for total waste
ac tua 1 1 ty , some
paper usage,
waste paper
7 In "Recycled
I.e.,
is also
the waste
used in
not be calculated.
psum wal Iboard — 27°'.
— 17?.; all
•
,; linerboard export -• ?i">".
other vises, 50".. The breakdown
,; all other 12'.;
The breakdown Is
is about 20' solid wood pulp and 80
about 637.
', recycled
-------
Thus, our present forecast of recycling is not as optimistic
as it was 2 years ago.x However, these two forecasts differ in one key
respect--our earlier forecast assumed that outside focus, e.g , federal
intervention,would bring about rapid increases in recycling; Lhe present
forecast relies wholly on recent trends within the industry—which ad-
mittedly are much more favorable to recycling than 2 years ago, but are
going to bring gradual,rather than rapid, change to the raw materials
patterns of the paper industry.
Because corrugated containers represent the "best" post-consumer
waste paper grade (along with newspapers), we developed more detail on the
trend in recovery of old corrugated (Table 108). A predictable ratio of
clippings will be recovered, based on tonnage processed through box-making
plants. The use of old corrugated containers will increase from 3.4
million tons in 1973 to 10.1 million tons in 1990. Overall, the recovery
of corrugated will increase from 5.3 million tons in 1973 to 13.6 million
tons in 1990, up 156 percent. If this occurs as forecast, then corrugated
recovery will represent 50 percent of all waste paper recovered for re-
cycling in the paper industry in 1990 compared to 37 percent in 1973-
Also, this level of corrugated recovery will mean a recovery rate of 42.1
percent of domestic containerboard consumption in 1990, compared to 31.3
percent in 1973 (Table 108). Thus, the recovery techniques of necessity
will have to become more sophisticated and efficient.
A recycling profile of the total paper industry for a 50-year
span, from 1940 to 1990, shows history repeating itself in a sense (Table
109, Figure 32). The rate of recycling is forecast to bottom out at 20.4
percent in 1972 and rise to 25.0 percent by 1990. In 1954, the recycling
rate was 25.0 percent, so that reversal to "equivalent points" will take
40 years, of which 22 are in decline and 18 are in rising rates of recycling.
The Recoverability of Waste Paper for Recycling
To determine the forecast role that recycling will play in paper
recovery by 1990, we also determined the amount of waste paper that could
reasonably be removed from the waste stream. This calculation followed a
detailed step wise procedure, including a breakdown of the general secondary
waste paper grade classification. The base year for this calculation was
1985. Each major paper product category is classified into five broad grades:
mixed, news, corrugated, deinking (bleached) and pulp substitutes. These
designations are those commonly used to classify waste paper into recycling
grades.
"Paper Recycling—the Art of the Possible, 1970-1985," op. cit.
217
-------
TABLE 108
COMPARATIVE RECYCLING OF CONTAINERBOARD. 1969-1990
Year
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1975
£ I960
1985
1990
Total
Waste Paper
Used— Domestic
11,969
12,021
12,323
13,132
14,318
14,160
17,860
22,465
27,340
U.S.A.
Recycling
Rate- '/,
20.3
20.7
20.7
20.4
21.3
21.3
22.5
24.0
25.0
Total
Container
Recycled
4,415
4,080
4,277
4,722
5,291
5,230
7,405
10,295
13,650
Container % of
Waste Paper
36.9
33.9
34.7
36.0
37.0
36.9
41.5
45.8
49.9
Container
Increase
% Over 1969
_ _
-8
-3
+7
+20
+18
+68
+133
+209
Container
Clippings-'
1,559
1,552
1,578
1,762
1,862
1,820
2,305
2,871
3,567
Post -Consumer
Containers
2,856
2,528
2,528
2,960
3,429
3,410
5,100
7,424
10,083
Containerboard
Production—
14,396
13,964
13,964
16,019
16,928
16,550
20,950
26,100
32,430
Containe
Recovery
Rate- \
30.7
29.2
29.8
29.5
31.3
31.6
35.3
39.4
42.1
a/ Domestic use linerboard, corrugating medium, container chipboard.
t>/ Actual for 1969 and 1970 based upon IPC data; calculated at 117. Containerboard, 1971 to 1990 based on 1969-1970 actual.
Source: American Paper Institute data, Institute of Paper Chemistry; Midwest Research Institute estimates (1975-1985).
-------
TABLE 109
PAPER RECYCLING IN THE PAPER INDUSTRY. 1940 TO 1990
Year
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1975
1980
1985
1990
Waste
Paper//
4,668
6,075
5,495
6,368
6,859
6,800
7,278
8,009
7,585
6,600
7,956
9,070
7,881
8,531
7,857
9,041 .
8,836
8,493 ''•
8,67i
9,414
9,031
9,018
9,075
9,613
9,843
10,231
10,564
9,888
10,222
10,939
10,059
10,997
11,269
(In t
Waste
Paper^/
11,969
12,021
12,323
13,132
14,318
14,160
17,860
22,465
27,340
housand tons)
Paper
Consumption
16,757
20,421
19,780
19,437
19,445
19,665
22,510
24,749
26,083
24,695
29,012
30,561
29,017
31,360
31,379
34,719
36,495
35,270
35,119 .
38,725
39,138
40,312
42,216
43,715
46,384
. 49,102
52 , 680
51,945
55,664
58,915
57,940
59,557
64,386
67,240
66,490
79,360
93,565
109,240
Percent Percent
Recycle!/ Recycle-/
27.9
29.7
27.8
32.8
35.3
34.6
32.3
32.4
29.1
26.7
27.4
29.7
27.2
27.2
25.0
26.0
24.2
24.1
24.7
24.3
23.1
22.4
21.5
22.0
21.2
20.8
20.1
19.0
18.4
18.6 20.3
18.3 20.7
18.5 20.7
17.5 - 20.4
21.3
21.3
22.5
24.0
. 25.0
a/ U.S. Bureau of Census data.
t>/ American Paper Institute data 1969-73; MRI 1975-1990. Includes waste paper in
molded pulp, pipe, etc.
Source: "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard 1974," American Paper Institute,
1974. (1940-1973); Midwest Research Institute Forecasts.
219
-------
The breakdown by grade follows historical patterns of paper
consumption and use. No attempt was made to determine potential waste
paper grade precisely, rather the total available waste was classified
into one value. The calculated distribution for 1972 is given in Table
110. One step was to determine recoverability of these products as
waste paper grades by source converting,, household and nonhousehold This
was done as follows (Table 110). Total waste available was grouped by
paper grade;converting scrap was then displayed along vith household and
nonhousehold waste generated. Then an estimate of the recovery potential
for each grade by source was made. Converting scrap as calculated pre-
viously is largely recovered for recycling purposes. The remaining "net"
waste paper is post-consumer waste and can be recovered in varying .degrees,
e.g., newspapers from homes are 55 percent recoverable; corrugated con-
tainers from businesses 60 percent recoverable."
The next calculation was the determination of the amount of
post-consumer waste that is recoverable and by difference what is unre-
coverable. The SMSA was considered a geographically "acceptable" poten-
tial source in which waste paper could be recovered economically, i.e.,
with a population concentration and density conducive to commercial re-
covery operations. About 70 percent of the U.S. population is in SMSA's
and a larger proportion of waste paper is generated in SMSA's as reflected
in per capita paper consumption figures. We estimated that up to 80
percent of post-consumer waste paper products would occur in SMSA's. If in
general, 60 percent of a grade is recoverable in SMSA's and 20 percent
outside is recoverable, we have an estimate (0.80 x 0.60 + 0.20 x 0.20 = 52
percent). We used this general approach for key bulk grades li\r°. news
and corrugated. However, we had to apply more general estimates to the
other products which should be treated only as approximations (Table 110).
The next step was to determine what proportion will actually be
recovered, based on our previous forecasts. This again was a judgment
based on the paper industry's use of selected waste paper grades on a
historical and forecast basis.. Actual recovery (total fiber uses) was
A careful study of Table 110 will show that these are our best esti-
mates and vary from a low of 10 percent to a high of 60 percent for
postconsumer waste depending upon the nature of the product and
whether it occurs in households or nonhousehold locations.
221
-------
TABLE 110
Grade Classification
Newsprint
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Printing Paper
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
to
j^ Fine Paper
hO
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Industrial Converting and
Packaging Paper
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Tissue
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Paper
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Containerboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
(i)
Total
Available
13.150
550
11.350
1,250
U.300
1,500
5,900
3.900
6.350
600
1,150
4,600
7.550
400
4,650
2,500
3.350
250
2.150
950
&i , ?nn
3.300
25,200
13,200
25.600
2.870
1,600
21,130
(2)
Recovery .
Potential
(Ratio)
0.535
1.00
.55
.15
0.32
0.95
0.20
0.25
0.31
1.00
0.20
0.25
OJ2
0.95
0.30
0.25
0.18
0.95
0.10
0.15
QU7
0.97
0.37
0.23
0.61
L.OO
0.10
0.60
(In
(3)
Total
Recovery
Potential
7.000
550
6,250
200
3.580
1.425
1,180
975
1.980
600
230
1.150
2.405
380
1,400
625
605
240
215
150
15.570
3,195
9,275
3,100
15.700
2,870
1M
12,670
thousand tons and ratio)
(4)
Unrecoverable
6.150
0
5,100
1.050
7.720
75
4.720
2,925
4.370
0
920
3,450
5.145
20
3,250
1,875
2.745
10
1.935
800
26.130
105
15,925
10,100.
9.900
0
1,440
8,460
(5)
Actual
Recovery
4.760
550
4.110
100
2.325
1.425
150
750
1.640
600
90
950
980
380
150
450
290
240
0
50
9.995
3,195
4,600
2,300
1 1 , 38J>
2,870
35
8,480
(6)
Potential
Recovery
(3) •- (5)
68%
100
66
50
65.
100
13
77
83
100
39
83
4J.
100
11
72
*i
100
0
33
64
100
50
74
73
100
22
67
Distribution of Recovery
(7) (8) (9)
Mixed News Container
890 3.770
500
890 3.170
100
900
400
100
400
tso
50
100
480
80
150
250
&•
50
2.470 3.770
480 500
1,190 3.170
800 100
460 10.925
2,870
10 25
450 8.030
by Grade and Source
(10)
Pulp Subs
50
50
68Q
525
155
900
550
350
450
300
150
202
200
2.280
1.625
0
655
615
(11)
Detoking
1°
50
245
50
195
590
50
40
500
50
50
40_
40
1.475
590
. 140
745
20
-------
TABLE 110 (Concluded)
ESTIMATED WASTE PAPER RECOVERY POTENTIAL AM) FORECAST OF ACTUAL RECOVERY FOR ALL FIBER USES. 1985
ro
to
Folding Boxboard and Setup
Boxboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Milk and Food Service
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Other Container-board and
Boxboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Paperboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Construction, Insulating and
Hand Dressed Board
Converting Scarp
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Grand Total - All Grades
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
(concluded)
5.850
1.050
3,850
950
1.950
250
1,200
500
3^00
400
1,500
1,500
36.800
4,550
8,150
24,100
1_.45Q
700
300
450
79.950
8,570
33,650
37,730
0.33
0.90
0.20
0.20
0.30
1.00
0.20 .
0.20
0.28
0.90
0.20
0.20
0.52
0.97
0.18
0.55
0.54
0.90
0.20
0.20
0.44
0.96
0.32
0.44
1.905
.945
770
190
590
250
240
100
960
360
300
300
19.155
4,425
1,470
13,260
780
630
60
90
35.505
8,250
10,805
16,450
3.945
105
3,080
760
1.360
0
960
400
2.440
40
1,200
1.200
17.645
145
6,680
10,820
670
70
240
360
44.445
320
22,845
21,280.
995
945
10
40
310
250
10
50
515
360
10
145
13.205
4,425
65
8,715
650
630
0
20
23.850
8,250
4,565
11,035
52
100
1
21
11
100
4
50
5A
100
3
48
69
100
4
66
«
100
0
22
62
100
42
67
995
945
10
40
22
10
10
170
60
10
100
1.645
1,005
40
600
320
300
20
4.435 3.770
1,785 500
1,230 3,170
1,420 100
270
250
20
345
300
45
10.925 ,615
2,870 550
25 0
8,030 65
300
300
10.925 3.195
2,870 2,475
25 0
8,030 720
20
20
0
0
20
30
30
1.525
620
140
765
Source:
Includes paper recovered for recycling, for molded pulp products, for other uses, and for net exports. Fiber recovery in solid waste management systems
of 1,200,000 tons is Included; recovery for energy is excluded. Exports are calculated using the same grade structure anJ percentages as.domestic use,
since no documentation of export grade structure is available. The year 1985 was selected as the base year to make the deta iled- calculations. However.
the detalfe presented here are estimates only and should-not be construed as more l.ian approximations; this is particularly true of source and detailed
grade recovery 'data. While this represents estimates,' the summary results appear to be generally valid and representative based upon the forecasts =£de
which preceded these estimates and calculations.
Midwest Research Institute.
-------
then distributed on a grade-by-grade basis by source. The result was a
highly detailed approximate, of waste paper recovery in 1985 to meet the
recycling, modeled pulp, and export demand earlier forecast. (We believe
this distribution is usable in summary form, but should not be applied on
a detailed basis because focal data was virtually nonexistent).
Once the 1985 calculation was complete, the same procedure
was carried out on_an aggregated basis for 1972 (Tabl° 111); 1975 (Table
112); 1980 (Table 113); 1990 (Table 114). The impact of post-consumer
waste recovery from the home and businesses b.ecomes apparent if 1972 and
1990 are .contrasted: recovery of all grades (mainly news) for house-
holds was 2.9 million tons in 1972 and will be 5.0 million tons in 1990.
For nonhousehold sources, the recovery was 5.2 million tons in 1972 and
rose to 14.3 million tons in 199.0 (all grades but old corrugated containers
are a key factor).
Summary of the Impact of Recycling on Solid Waste
Likewise, the residual waste — that which has no fiber recovery
value was then calculated. Excluding resource recovery facilities that
convert paper to an energy product (but including fiber recovery from
solid waste management system), the net waste in resource recovery systems
or processed for disposal was calculated. This value is 41.5 million
tons in 1972,rising to 64.6 million tons in 1990, an increase of 56 per-
cent or 23.1 million tons. At the same time, the waste paper generated
is 55.0 million tons in 1972 rising to 93.6 million tons in 1990 an in-
crease of 70 percent and 38.6 million tons. Thus, withdrawal of fiber
as recycling or export material will lighten but not lower the direct
burden on the solid waste management system. The trend is favorable^ut
the rate is lower than it might be under other circumstances. Increased
paper recovery rates will impact favorably on the solid waste rate of
growth,but the tonnage will continue to increase steadily with increasing
consumption.
However, paper can also be utilized for other resource recovery
options although recycling (including exports) is the most viable recovery
option at the present time. To a lesser extent, other recovery options
might reduce the amount of net waste paper disposed of by conventional
disposal techniques--landfill and by incineration.
224
-------
TABLE 111
ESTIMATED WASTE PAPER RECOVERY POTENTIAL AND ACTUAL RECOVERY FOR ALL FIBER USES. 1972
Category
Total - Paper
Converttrig Scrap -
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total - Paperboard
Converting Scrap ,
Household Waste-'•; '
Nonhousehold Waste
Total - Construction, Etc.
Converting Scrap.-'
Household :Waste^- •'
Nonhousehold Waste
Total - All Categories
Converting .-Scrap :;.
Household>Wasteo ;
Nonhousehold Waste
Note:
(In thousand tons and percent)
Distribution of Recovery by Grade and
Total Percent Recovery Actual
Available Recoverable Potential Recovery
29.450 37. 10.985 6.620
2,200
18,450
8,800
24.600
3,100
6,300
15,200
Etc. 1.000
450
250
300
3 55.050
5,750
25,000
24,300
recovered for
97
37
23
51
97
18
55
52
90
20
20
44
97
32
43
recycling in
2,135
6,825
2,025
12.505
3,010
1,135
8,360
515
405
50
60
24.005
5,550
8,010
10,445
the paper
2,135
2,895
1,59.0
6.510
2,887
30
3,593
420
405
0 -
15
13.550
5,427
2,925
5,198
industry for
Mixed
1.755
298
887
570
1.180
715
30
435
220
205
15-
3.155
-1,218
•v.?.-' 917
1 , 020
use in
Source
Pulp Total
News Container Subs Deinking Unrecovered
2.385 1.545
: 437 1,050
1,918 0
- 30 495
4.880 425
1,762 385
0
3,118 40
195
195
2.385 4.880 2.165
•''437 •'.1,762 1,630
1,918 0 0
.30- 3,118 535
molded pulp products, for
935
350
90
495
25
25
5
5
965
380
' 90
495
other.'.
22.830
65
15,555
7,210;
18.090
213
6,270
11,607
580
45
250
41.500
323
22,075
19,102
uses ''and net
Source:
exports'-.. Fiber recovered "'in-Solid Waste Management'Systems of'50,'000 tons is included; recovery.: for energy is ex-
cluded. Exports are claculat'ed at the'.same' grade •stru6ture-;and percentages as.domes tic,.use •since, no uocumentatiori
of export grade structure is available. This table was constructed arid calculate'd ::f'roiri>'de tailed data''developed for
1985, and adjusted to 1972.
Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 112
ESTIMATED WASTE PAPER RECOVERY POTENTIAL AND ACTUAL RECOVERY FOR ALL FIBER USES. 1975
(In thousand tons and percent)
Category
Total Paper
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Paperboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Construction, Etc.
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total All Categories
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Percent
Available Recoverable
Distribution of Recovery by Grade and Source
Recovery
2,350
19,150
9,450
24.900
3,150
6,100
15,650
1.100
500
250
350
56.950
6,000
25,500
25,450
II
97
37
23
97
18
55
52.
90
20
20
44
96
32
43
11.540
2,280
7,085
2,175
3,055
1,100
8.610
570
450
50
70
24.875
5,785
8,235
10,855
Actual
Recovery
7.340
2,280
3.270
1.790
7.315
2.925
25
4,365
495
450
0
45
15.150
5,655
3.295
6,200
Mixed News Container
1.915 2.J25
300 440
925 2.255
690 30
1.275 5.590
700 1,820
25 0
550 3,770
250
210
0
40
3.440 2.725 5.590
1,210 440 1,820
950 2,255 0
1,280 30 3,770
Pulp
Subs
1.690
1,140
0
550
445
400
0
45
215
210
0
5
2.305
1,750
0 .
555
Deinktng
1.055
400
90
565
5
5
30
30
1.090
435
90
565
Total
Unrecovered
23.610
70
15,880
7.660
17.585
225
6,075
11,285
605
50
250
305
41.800
345
22,205
19,250
Note: Includes paper recovery for recycling in the paper industry, for use in molded ; pulp products, for other uses, and
net exports. Fiber recovery in solid waste management systems of 300,000 tons is included; recovery for energy is
excluded. Exports are calculated at the same grade structure and percentages as domestic use since no documental:ior
on grade structure is available. This table was constructed and calculated from detailed data developed for 1985,
and adjusted to 1975.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
TABLE 113
ESTIMATED WASTE PAPER RECOVERY POTENTIAL AND ACTUAL RECOVERY FOR ALL FIBER USES. 1980
NJ
K5
-vl
(In thousand tons and percent)
Distribution of Recovery by Grade & Source
Total
Available
36,150
jp 2,850
j 22,050
aste 11,250
31.550
ap 3,850
2 7,650
aste .20,050
3ri 1.250
ip 600
2 300
aste 350
f'ies 68.950 .
ap 7,30.0 '..
2 30,000
aste 31,650
Percent Recovery Actual
Recoverable Potential Recovery
1Z.
97
. 37
23
51
97
18
55
54
90
20
20
44
96
32
43
13.515
2,765
8,160
2,590
16.140
3,735
1,375
11,030
670
540
60
70 .
30.235.
7,040 :
9,505
13,690
8.595
2,765
3,860
1,970
9.895
3,660
60
6,175
560 ;
540 .
0
20
19.050
6,965
3,920
8,165
Pulp
Mixed News .Container Subs Deinking Unrecovered
2.175 3.240
365 500
1,050 2,690
760 . 50
1.450
...870
50
530
.280
260
0
.20
3 . 905 3.240
1,495 : 500
1,100 2,690
1,310.' -.' 50
1.930
1,400
0
530
7.905 520 -
2,305 485
10 0
5,590 35
260
.260
7.905 2.710
2,305 2,145-
10 0
5,590 565
1 . 250
500
120
630
1°.
0
0
20
20
20
. 1.290 - ;
520 -
120
650 -•'
27.555
85
18-; 190
9,280
21.655 .
190 '
7,590
13,875
690
60
300
330
49.900
335
26,080
' 2:;485
Category
Total Paper
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
~~\ Nonhousehold Waste
Total Paperboard
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total Construction
Converting Scrap
Household. Waste
Nonhousehold Waste
Total All Categories
Converting Scrap
Household Waste
Nonhousehold ..Waste
Note: Includes paper recovered for recycling in the paper industry, for use in molded pulp products, for other usas, and net
exports. Fiber recovered in solid waste management systems of 650,000 tons is included; recovery for energy is ex-
cluded. Exports are calculated using'the same grade structure and percentages as domestic use since no documentation
on grade structure is available. This taole was constructed and calculated from detailed data 'developed for 1985, and.
adjusted to 1980. ,
Source: Midwest Research Institute,
-------
TABLE 114
ESTIMATED WASTE PAPER RECOVERY POTENTIAL AND ACTUAL RECOVERY FOR ALL FIBER USES. 1990
(In thousand tons and percent)
to
r-o
00
Distribution of Recovery by Grade & Source
Total Percent Recovery Actual Pulp Total
Category Available Recoverable Potential Recovery Mixed News Container Subs Delnking Unrecovered
Total Paper 47.850 J7 17.825
Converting Scrap 3,800 97 3,685
Household Waste 28,700 37 10,620
Nonhousehold Waste 15,350 23 3,520
Total Paperboard 44.150 52 23.150
Converting Scrap 5,450 97 5,285
Household Waste 9,250 18 1,665
Nonhousehold Waste 29,450 55 16,200
Total Construction 1.650 5_2_ 855
Converting Scrap 750 90 675
Household Waste 350 20 70
Nonhousehold Waste 550 20 110
Total All Categories 93.650 45_ 41.840
Converting Scrap 10,000 96 9,645
Household Waste 38,300 32 12,355
Nonhousehold Waste 45,350 44 19,840
Note: Includes paper recovered for recycling in the paper industry, for use in molded pulp products, for other uses and net
exports. Fiber recovered in solid waste management systems of 2,500,000 tons is included; recovery for energy is
excluded. Exports are calculated at the same grade structure and percentages as domestic use since no documentation
of export grade structure is available. This table was constructed and calculated from detailed data developed for
1985 and adjusted to 1990.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
11.315
3,685
4,965
2,665
16.995
5,285
70
11,640
690
675
0
15
29.000
9,645
5.035
14,320
2.645 7.625
540 625
1,265 3,500
840 3,500
1.775
1,100
35
640
345
330
15
4.785 4.235
1,990 625
1,300 3,500
1,495 110
2.700
1,850
0
850
14.470 725
3,565 620
35 0
10,870 105
315
315
14.470 3.740
3,565 2,785
35 0
. 10,870 955
1.715
650
200
865
25.
25
30
30
1.770
680
200
890
36.535
115
23,735
12,685
27.155
165
9,180
17,810
960
75
350
535
64.650
355
33,265
31,030
-------
Other Resource Recovery Options and Recovery Mechanisms for Paper to 1990
The most viable resource recovery options for waste paper or
uses of recovered paper are:
(1) Recycling in the paper industry (in linerboard, newsprint,
etc.); ' '
(2) Recycling in other fiber products (molded pulp, insulation,
pipe, etc.);
(3) Recycling outside the U.S.--exports ;
(4) Recovery of the heat content of paper (fuel, conversion to
energy);
In addition, the recovery mechanisms that apply are as follows:
(1) "Traditional" source separation for recycling:
(a) at industrial paper converting plants;
(b) at wholesale, retail, industrial plants; and
(c) via "newspaper" drives .
(2) Collection and recovery within solid waste management
systems:
(a) municipal/private collection programs of news and/or
old corrugated via householder separation from waste;
(b) deposit at special collection centers;
(c) mechanical or hand separation at transfer stations or
disposal sites; and
(d) mechanical separation of fibers from mixed waste
streams at comprehensive central waste processing
facilities.
By far the most important recovery use is recycling of. waste
paper in the paper industry and'export. And, the most important mechanism
of recovery for these uses is "traditional" source separation programs.
We estimate that all paper grades (except a small amount of old corrugated
and old newspapers) is recovered via traditional source separation. Very
little recovery is directly associated with a solid waste management
system. ... . •
229
-------
However, in the future,"piggy back" collection programs for
newspapers and old corrugated will get much greater attention. Already
about 100 communities in the U.S. have curbside newspaper collection pro-
grams under .way. Paper companies committed to recycling of newspapers will
have to increasingly seek their waste paper via community solid waste
management systems--both voluntary and ordinance required programs.x These
are viable options and MRI believes they will spread rapidly across the
nation as the demand for old newspapers and corrugated containers increases
faster than the traditional recovery techniques can supply them. The actual
tonnage recovered' via this technique in 1972 is not known. However, we
estimate that by 1975, a total of 300,000 tons will be recovered via home
separation and curbside collection. By 1990, this amount could increase
to 2 million tons or about 7 percent of waste paper recovered for all re-
cycling purposes.
In addition, by 1990^mechanical separation systems (such as wet
pulping and/or dry mechanical processing) will account for another 500,000
tons fiber recovery. In.all then, 2.5 million tons of waste paper will be
recovered within solid waste management systems for recycling (out of a
total of 29.0 million tons). In fact, our estimates may even look
very modest for this recovery mechanism in the future,even though recovery
&y?
directly from municipal waste streams is quite low today.
Recovery of the Heat Content of Waste Paper
As outlined in Chapter II, central processing of mixed waste to
recover the energy content of the organic fraction of waste will become
very important in the future. Even with the removal of waste paper from
the waste stream for recyclingja large quantity of waste paper will remain.
Recovery of the Btu content of this paper (8,000 Btu per pound on a dry basis
will be highly significant. We believe the preferred recovery option will
be to process mixed waste for use as a fuel in coal and oil-fired utility
boilers. However, pyrolysis of the waste stream is also viable for producing
a synthetic liquid fuel or gas and will also be practiced commercially after
1978.
* See for example "Solid Waste Report," October 29, 1973, page 219, in
which a program involving 118 communities in New Jersey will be in-
corporated in home-separated and curbside collection of newspapers
in cooperation with Garden State Paper Company, a major deinker of
old news to produce newsprint.
** We stand firm on. this estimate even though many municipal recovery
programs are in a shambles today following the recycling recession
that hit in late 1974. This "glut" of supply will eventually dry up
and the long-term trend to recovery will resume.
230
-------
The amount of waste processed.through central waste processing
systems was determined in Chapter II. It remains only to determine how
much of that organic fraction is paper. Since we have assumed all recovery
for recycling takes place preferentially to using the waste as fuel, the
calculation was straightforward, relating to the waste paper content in
the average municipal solid waste stream.
Summary of Waste Paper Recovery Via All Options
An overall summary.of waste paper recovery as it relates to the
municipal waste stream is given for the period 1972 to 1990 in Table 115.
This table shows that the tonnage of waste paper available in solid waste
rises from 41.6 million tons in 1972 to 67.2 million tons in 1990. This
translates to 32.0 percent of total municipal waste generation in 1972,
increasing slightly to 33.6 percent of waste generated in L990. (However,
it declines slightly in the other years by comparison.)
The total municipal waste processed in central waste proces.-jing
facilities will increase from 2.1 million tons in 1975 to 48.6.million Cons
in 1990. Assuming the waste paper content to be proportional' to that cal-
culated, the paper available for recovery processing in central facilities
will increase from 0.6 million tons in 1975 to 16.7 million tons in 1990.
Of this amount, most will be processed for its heat (energy), value,
and the amount of waste paper processed for energy will be 15.4 million
tons in 1990. Almost all mechanical separation will occur in SMSA's,
which might or might not have central waste recovery processing.
In all, the total useful recovery of waste paper from within solid
waste management systems will be 0.95 million tons in 1975 and will in-
crease to 17.9 million tons in 1990. If the energy recovery tonnage .is
added to the total recycled tonnage in 1990, then 44.3 million tons of 93.7
million tons of waste paper generated will be usefully recovered (or 47
percent). This is a large increase over 1972,in which 13.6 million tons
were recovered from 55.1 million tons generated, or 25 percent (see Table
90 also).
In summary then, the burden of waste paper going to ulLi'iUtc solid
waste disposal sites will increase from 41.5 million tons in 1972 to 49.3
million tons in 1990, or a modest 19 percent. In the meantime, total waste
paper recovery will rise by 22.8 percent and total paper consumption will
rise by 70.6 percent in the same period. Thus., the advent of recycling
rejuvenation and energy recovery will mean that the burden o'f waste paper
oh disposal systems will grow in tonnage,but decline appreciably in total
impact compared to the potential,should resource recovery not take place.
231
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TABLE 115
SUMMARY OF PAPER PROGESSING/RECOVERY
FOR MIXED
MUNICIPAL
WASTE, 1972 TO
1990
(In Thousand Tons)
Category
Total Solid Waste Generated^/
Total Waste Paper Generated
Waste Paper Recovered Outside
SWM Systems^'
1972
130,000
55,050
13,500
Paper Available in Solid Waste£/41,550
Percent Paper in Solid Waste
Solid Waste Processed in
Central Facilities
Paper Content
Paper Recovered
via Separation (50%
efficiency)
via Energy Recovery
Paper Not Recovered
Total Waste Not Processed
in Central Facilities
Paper Content
Paper Recovered (via
separation)
Paper Not Recovered^/
Total Paper Recovered6./
via Separation?.'
via Energy Recovery6'
Total Recovery - Paper6/
Percent Recovered of Available
in Solid Waste i
32.0
Neg.
Neg.
Neg.
Neg.
Neg.
130,000
41,500
50
41,500
50
Neg.
50
0.1
1975
140,000
56,950
14,850
42,100
30.1
2,100
650
Neg.
650
0
137,900
41 ,430
300
41,150
300
650
950
2.2
1980
160,000
68,
18,
50,
31
6,
2,
2,
153,
4ti,
47,
2,
2,
950
400
550
.6
600
100
50
000
50
400
450
600
900
650
000
650
5.2
1985
180
79
22
57
,000
,950
,650
,300
31.8
24
7
7
.155
49
1
48
1
7
8
,000
,650
200
,250
200
,000
,650
,000
,850
,200
,250
,450
14.7
1990
200,
93,
26,
67,
33
48,
16,
15,
151,
50,
2,
49,
2,
15,
17,
000
650
500
150
.6
600
350
500
350
500
400
800
000
300
500
350
850
26.6
aV Nominal Value from calculations in Chapter II.
b_/ That recovered outside solid waste management systems via other separation
techniques.
£/ Quantity of waste paper introduced into the municipal waste system for collection/
recovery/disposal.
d/ Includes paper not recovered from central processing systems.
e/ That recovered from within solid waste management systems in metropolitan areas.
Source: Midwest Research Institute. (
232
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APPENDIX A
AN OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN THE USE OF PACKAGING CONTAINERS
FOR BEVERAGES, FOOD. AND OTHER PRODUCTS
233
-------
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this appendix is to give the background data on
major packaging end uses where there is considerable intermaterials com-
petition. It is from this analysis that the forecasts for specific mate-
rials (e.g., glass) used in beverage containers, food packaging and other
uses were derived. The analysis which follows gives the detailed basis upon
which our forecasts in previous chapters for glass containers, steel cans,
aluminum cans and plastic containers were made.
BEVERAGE CONTAINERS
Soft Drink Containers
Soft drinks are one type of beverage which also include beer,
distilled spirits and wine. All beverages accounted for 55.7 billion new
containers and 86.5 billion filled containers in 1972, of which 25.8 bil-
lion new containers and 48.2 billion fillings were soft drinks.
The soft drink industry has been the most rapidly growing of all
beverage markets. Soft drinks are predominately carbonated nonalcoholic
beverages which are marketed .to the consumer in glass containers or metal
cans as well as dispensed from.vending machines and fountains by mixing a
syrup with water and carbonating. Consumption of soft drinks grew at a
rate of 7.8 percent per year during the past decade.
Soft drinks are mixed and packaged by franchise dealers who pur-
chase the syrup from manufacturers, such as Coca Cola, Pepsi Cola, Royal
Crown, Seven-Up, and Dr. Pepper. The dealers bottle or can the soft drinks
and distribute to diverse outlets within their franchised area. There are
also a number of private label canners that package for larger supermarket
chains.
Soft Drink Demand:* Increased soft drink consumption was specta-
cular in the 1960's, a time when the age group under 24 years was expanding
rapidily. Soft drink marketers used advertising, new packaging and ag-
gressive marketing techniques in developing the markets, concentrating on
the under 24-year population segment which has the highest per capita con-
sumption of soft drinks (Table A-l). With the rise in per capita dis-
posable income, the rapid growth of fast food restaurants and drive-ins,
Whenever reference is made to "cases of 8-ounce equivalent," this measure
is designed to put beverage packaged on one common size of container.
In actuality, there are a variety of sizes and the 8~ounce equivalent
basis should not be used as the basis for calculating actual use (number)
of any given configuration (e.g., cans).
234
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introduction of a wide variety of flavors and low-calorie beverag^ and
consumer preferences to favor soft drinks, the level of demand for soft
/drinks reached 3.54 billion cases (of 8-ounce equivalent bottles) of soft
drinks in 1972. This demand is more than double the demand in 1962 (Table
A-2). Consumption increased during this period from 213 containers (8-
fluid ounces equivalent) per capita in 1962 to a level of 406 containers
in 1972.
TABLE A^
SOFT DRINK PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION BY AGE GROUP. 1972
Soft Drink Sales
Age
1 - 12
13 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 44
45 and over
Total
Billion
Units'
13.2
6.2
8.2
15.2
9.9
Percent
25.0
11.8
15.5
28.3
18.9
12-Ounce Units
Per Capita
x 250
319
366
315
162
52.7
100.0
259
ji/ 12-ounce equivalent units
Source: American Can Company, 1972.
There is strong evidence that this growth rate will not be main-
tained in the future. The principal conditions that stimulated growth in
the past--an increasing rate of consumption and a large increase in the
population under 24 years of age--no longer exist (Table A-3) . The under
24 population is projected to increase in number only 5.8 percent between
1970 and 1980, compared to 16.8 percent between 1960 and 1970. Thus, most
of the growth in demand from this age group will have to come from increas-
ing per capita consumption, which will be more difficult to achieve. Be-
cause of the changing population mix,we are projecting that soft drink
demand will slow from its past 7.8 percent per year rate to 5 percent per
year through 1975, and 4.1 percent from 1975 to 1980. The growth rate will
continue to slow to about 2.9 percent from 1980 to 1990, as shown in Figure
A-l. Even with the reduced growth rates forecast, the slower population
growth will cause per capita consumption to increase to a level of 636, 8-
ounce equivalent containers by 1990 (Table A-2).
235
-------
TABI£ A-2
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION OF SOFT DRINKS 1950 TO 1990
Year
1950
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
(In equivalent cases and
Total Cases
192 oz.*
1,001,751,474
1,476,544,000
1,524,236,000
1,667,514,000
: 1,. 800, 915, 000
1,948,590,000
2,104,282,000
2,352,587,000
2,470,452,000
2,777,035,000
2,913,110,000
3,096,635,000
3,353,615,000
3,541,417,000
4,100,000,000
5,020,000,000
5,940,000,000
6,860,000,000
containers per capita)
Per Capita
8-oz Containers
158.0
192.0
198.3
213.4
227.4
242.9
259.1
287.0
298.1
331.6
344.4
362.8
388.1
406.4
457.0
527.0
584.0
636.0
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)
Period Cases
1950-1960 4.0
1960-1970 7.7
1962-1967 8.2
1967-1972 7.5
1972-1975 5.0
1975-19CO ' 4.1
1980-1990 2.9
* Sales expressed in cases of 24, 8-ounce containers.
Source: National Soft Drink Association, 1950-1972. MRI estimates 1972-
1990.
236
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TABLE A-3
U.S. POPULATION BY AGE. 1960 TO 1990
Age Group
Under 20
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 and Over
Total
(In thousands)
1960 1970
69,085 76,979
10,803 16,372
22,823 24,909
24,072 23,072
20,624 23,203
31,919 38,632
1975
76,485
19,404
31,114
22,7kl
23,563
42,037
1980
77,735
21,067
36,962
25,370
22,406
45.134
1990
89,435
17,823
41,791
36,902
24,617
48,125
179,326 203,167 215,324- 228,676 258,693
Percent Change in Age Groups
Age Group
Under 20
20 - 24
25 - 34
- 44
- 54
35
45
55 and Over
Total
1960-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1990
11.4
51.6
9.1
(4.2)
1-2.5
21.0
(0.6)
18.5
24.9
(1.5)
1.6
8.8
1.6
8.6
18.8
11.7
(5.2)
7.4
15.1
(18.2)
13.0
45.4
9.9
6.6
13.3
6.0
6.2
13.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census 1960-1970,
Projections - 1975-1990--Series D.
237
-------
ho
CO
00
CO
O
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
* 5,000
OJ
..S 4,000
g 3,000
o
u 2,000
c
~\
,000
900
800
700
600
500
U-l
O
C
O
400
300
200
100
Total
Packaged
Bulk
Per Capita Cases
J L
J I
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
i ' ' ' i i ' ' i
1985
1990
Figure A-l - Soft Drink Shipments and Per Capita Consumption
-------
There are two distinct segments of the soft drink industry com-
monly referred to as the "package" and ."bulk" markets. Package marki;ts in-
clude all soft drinks sold in metal cans and glass container!?', .wh I.le lm,lk
includes premixed and postmixed soft drinks sold through vending machines
and fountain dispensers where the concentrated syrup is mixed and carbonated
at the time of useV'.The package market is the chief outlet for soft drinks.
However, the. bulk market has grown 'at a faster rate (although from a much
smaller'base). Table A-4 and Figure A.-l show the historical, and projected;
demand for packaged and bulk soft drinks. Bulk soft drinks increased frpm ;,
slightly over 1 percent of the market in 1963 to 19.4 percent in 1972. They;;
will continue to increase their share of this market, but at a slower rate;},v
reaching a 21 percent share by 1980 and 22:4 percent by 1990. Thus, ::the>;-.
package market will grow at slightly less than the overall soft drink mar-
ket. Demand at 2.85 billion equivalent cases in 1972 will increase at a
rate of 4.8 percent per year through 1975; at 3.9 percent from 1975 to 1980
when it will reach a volume of 3.96 billion cases. The more rapid growth
of the bulk market will be a result of the increasing trend of eating out
and the popularity of vending machines in commercial and industrial estab-
lishments.
TABLE A-4
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION OF SOFT DRINKS
BY MARKET SEGMENT. 1960 TO 1990
(Thousands of.192-ounce cases)
Year
(
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
1,476,544
1,524,236
1,667,514
1,800,915
1,948,590
2,104,282
2,352,587
2,470,452
2,777,035
2,913,110
3,096,635
3,353,615
3,541,417
4,100,000.
5,020,000
5,940,000
6,860,000
Packaged
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,615,000
1,715,000
1,933,000
2,023,000
2,043,000
2,347,000
2,409,000
'2,521,000
2,716,000
2,850,000
3,280,000
3,960,000
•4,640,000
5,320,000
Bulk
N/A
N/A
N/A
186,000
234,000
271,000
330,000
427,000
430,000
504,000
: 575,000
637,000
690,000
820,000
1,060,000
1,300,000
1,540,000
Per Capita
8roz Containers
192
198
213 .
227
243 '
259
287
298
331
344
362
388
406
457
527
584
636
Source: National Soft Drink Association 1960-1972, MRI estimates 1972-1990.
239
-------
Soft Drink Containers: The bottler, and subsequently, the con-
sumer, has a wide choice of sizes and types of containers. Originally,
most soft drinks were packaged in returnable glass containers. The sizes
were small, ranging from 6- to 10-fluid ounces volume. The consumer paid
a deposit on the container and returned it for redemption of his deposit.
The empty bottles were returned to the bottler who washed and reused them
from 15 to 20 or more times before they were lost, broken or discarded.
After World War II, the nonreturnable glass container and the metal can
were introduced as commercial packages, but grew slowly until the 1960's
when they became popular with consumers; the soft drink packages used
marketing concepts based on "convenience" and "easy disposability" of one-
trip containers.
Returnable bottles, which accounted for 92 percent of the volume
as recently as 1963, began to lose their share of the market. By 1972, re-
turnable bottles represented only 38.5 percent of the volume of packaged
soft drinks. Metal cans increased during the same period from 6 percent
to 34 percent, and one-way bottles from 2 percent to 27.5 percent (Figure
A-2).* Because of the rapid growth of packaged soft drinks, the total
volume packaged in returnable bottles did not begin declining until 1966.
Metal cans will continue to increase their share of the packaged
market through 1980, when they reach 41.6 percent of the 3.96 billion cases
consumed. During this same period, the one-way glass container will in-
crease its share to 29.3 percent and the returnable container will continue
its decline to a 29.1 percent share. With the introduction of the plastic
container by 1980, metal and glass containers will have their respective
market shares reduced. By 1990, metal cans will be 41 percent; one-way
glass, 23.6 percent; returnable glass, 23.2 percent; and plastic bottles, 12.2
percent (Figure A-3).
Since the volume of soft drink consumption will be increasing
during this period, the total of equivalent cases for each of the containers
with the exception of returnable glass will continue to increase. The ab-
solute decline in value packaged in round-trip containers will end by 1975
and increase slightly through 1990 (Figure A-4).
Container Selections: The choice of containers available in the
future will be affected by a number of recent developments. The major
factor has been the acceptance of the large resealable glass container.
These containers are being made available in 24-, 32-, 48- and 64-ounce sizes
and are estimated to have captured 14.6 percent of the 1973 market for pack-
aged drinks, from only 4.7 percent in 1965. Projections indicate that'they
could reach 23.6 percent of the 1975 market.—'
Data given in this section is on the basis of equivalent 8-ounce con-
tainers which is not the same as the actual as-packaged container pro-
file. Thus, this data does not correspond directly to Table A-5
presented later.
240
-------
Metal Can
6
One Way
Bottle 2.0%
Round Trip
Bottle 92%
1963 ;
1,615,000,000 CasesSL/
Round Trip
Bottle 67.0%
1967 ' ..
2,043,000,000 Cases °/
One Way
Bottle
27.5%
Round Trip
Bottle 38.5%
1972
2,850,000,000 Cases -/
a/ Based on equivalent 8-ounce containers, not on an as-packaged basis.
SOURCE: Glass Container Manufacturers Institue
Figure A-2 - Soft Drink Packaging Market Share, by Container, 1963-1972
-------
NJ
•F*
K>
One Way
Bottle
27.5%
Round Trip
Bottle 38.5%
1972
2,850,000,000 Cases "V
One Way
Bottle
29.3%
Round Trip
Bottle
29.1%
1980
3,960,000,000 Cases £.
Round Trip
Bottle 23.2%
1990
5,320,000,000 Cases -/
a/ Based on equivalent 8-ounce containers, not on an as-packaged basis,
SOURCE: MRI Estimates
Figure A-3 - Soft Drink Packaging Market Share, by Container, 1972-1990
-------
NO
•P-
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
c 2,000
o . .
s 1,000
J 900
800
700
600
500
400
. ; 300
200
100
Total
Metal Cans '__ ,
One Way Glass
Round Trip Glass
X"
Plastic x'
X
X
X
X
X
x
x
X
x
x
X
1960
1965
1 " 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I * 1 I II! ! I I I
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-4 - 'Soft.Drink Consumption, By Container, 1963-1990
(Millions.of 24-8.-Ounce Cases).
-------
This development has eliminated a large segment of the "take home"
market from the metal can which is not available in sizes greater than 16
ounces. The resealable closure feature, combined with the economics of the
larger sizes, has made glass the desired container for larger sizes.
The 12-ounce can is the predominant metal container with a small
share in 16-ounce sizes. It has been reported that a 32-ounce resealable
can is being tested. However, the present state of technology and economics
do not indicate that it will be commercial within this decade. Cans will be
the chief container in markets where the beverage will be consumed immediately
after opening.
A second development has been the plastic coated and laminated
glass containers which are designed to reduce breakage and weight. Owens-
Illinois has introduced "Plasti-Shield," a nonreturnable glass container
with a jacket of foamed polystyrene around the exterior of the bottle. It
not only reduces breakage, but allows the use of a lighter weight container.
A quart Plasti-Shield container weighs 14.5 ounces compared to 21.5 ounces
Q O /
for a standard nonreturnable.—
Other glass container manufacturers are developing more resistant
glasses. Thatcher has "Shatter Guard,"which is a glass container with a
tight fitting outer envelope of a proprietary plastic copolymer that offers
improved safety and a 21 percent reduction in weight. Indian Head, Anchor
Hocking and Brockway Glass have also developed or are marketing similar con-
tainers.—
It is the opinion of many experts within the industry that these
containers are an interim step to the development of the all-plastic blow
molded containers, and that plastic-coated containers will reach no more
than 10 percent of the market. We believe this to be a reasonable estimate.
The third development which is receiving wide interest is the all-
plastic container. Until the recent availability of nitrile resins, there
were no commercial plastics that were clear, nearly impermeable to moisture,
oxygen and carbon dioxide transmission, and had the desired strength to permit
molding into a soft drink container. Vistron Division of Sohio began ex-
ploring high nitrile polymers in the mid 1960's and undertook their commer-
cial development. Other firms announced similar developments, so that today
there are numerous "barrier" resins being test marketed for soft drinks.
Others besides Vistron's "Barex" include Monsanto's "Lopac," and E. I.
DuPont's MR-16. Both Barex and Lopac soft drink containers have been tested
qo /
in selected markets and have received good acceptance by the consumer.Zi'
244
-------
Although the barrier resins have been tested and found to be de-
sirable to the consumer, there is no commercial use of plastic soft drink
containers today, even though they are being.test marketed extensively.*
The major limitation,, is -the cost to the bottler. At the present price
level, plastic does not provide enough advantage in lighter weight and trans-
portation savings to be used in significant volumes. The amount jf resin
in the container can be reduced only so far with current technology before
"creep" or expansion of the container is experienced and it is at the mini-
mun level today. Since the resins are relatively new and plastics have
historically declined in price as volume increases, future prices should
make them more competitive with glass containers. We anticipate that
these containers will begin to appear commercially in 1975, but not become
significant before 1980. By 1990, we anticipate 5 billion plastic'con-
tainers will be used in soft drink packaging.
There is also a possibility that composite resins which are in
the early stages of development could become competitive with nitrile resins
in the next decade. Several resin manufacturers are exploring this route
to the development of a soft drink container.
Metal Cans: xhe metal can, although in use for many years, did
not seriously challenge the glass container until the 1960's when franchised
bottlers began to install canning lines to compete with contract canners
(who package "private label" soft drinks for.the large supermarket chains).'
The development of the easy-open aluminum top also stimulated consumer de-
mand for the can.
As recently as 1956, only 300 million cans were being used to
package soft drinks and accounted for about 1 percent of all packaged soft
drinks. By 1963, over 2 billion cans were used, and by 1972, demand had
grown to 15.6 billion units (Table A-5). Growth since 1968 has averaged
16.5 percent per year, but has been slowing since 1970. , -
Metal cans will continue to increase their share of the package
market although at a slower rate. Growth to 1975 will be at 7.2 percent
per year when volume will be 19.2 billion units. Beyond 1975, growth will
be at 5.1 percent per year, reaching a level of 24.6 billion cans in 1980
equivalent to 42 percent of the soft drink market. By 1990,30 billion cans
will be used as growth slows to 2.3 percent per year.
*• Coca-Cola authorized use of Monsanto's Lopac beginning January 1974.
245
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TABLE A-5
SOFT DRINK CONTAINER SHIPMENTS. 1960 TO 1990
(Billions of containers)
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
One-way Round
Metal Cans-'Bottles-/Trip Bottles£/Total
(Total Fillings)
0.81 0.25
1.23 0.40
1.65 0.48
2.05 0.56 29.63 32.24
2.80 0.63 30.95 34.38
3.84 1.01 . 32.91 37.76
5.63 1.98 30.46 38.07
7.30 3.59 29.15 40.04
10.03 4.64 26.46 41.13
11.76 6.45 24.58 42,79
13.10 8.34 23.56 45.00
14.11 8.34 24.85 47.30
15.60 8.76 23.83 48.19
19.20 9.93 20.6 49.73
24.60 11.23 18.0 53.83
27.50 11.15 18.0 56.65
30.00 11.00 18.0 62.00
Returnable^/
Bottles Shipped
1.41
1.34
57
77
91
91
1.92
91
75
64
1.72
1.38
1.45
1.30
1.50
1.30
1.30
Source:
a./ Can Manufactures Institute 1960-1971, MRI estimates 1972-1990.
b/ U.S. Department of Commerce 1960-1971. MRI estimates 1972-1990.
£/ U.S. Department of Commerce, "Closures for Containers," 1960-1971;
Midwest Research Institute f>«jtimates, 19.72-1990.
246
-------
There has not been noticeable trend away from the standard 12-
ounce container which has been the most popular unit and should continue
to be the preferred size because the contents can usually be consumed be-
fore losing carbonation. Sixteen-ounce cans are the only other significant
size available to consumers and represents only a small portion of the mar-
ket. It is projected to increase slowly at the expense of the 12-ounce
container during the next decade. Unless a resealable container is developed,
cans will be limited to the 16-ounce and under sizes
.1 • .
Glass Containers: The market for glass containers is shared by
the returnable and nonreturnable units. The returnable container is still
the predominant unit with 23.8 billion filled in 1972. Since this container
is reused on average 10 to 15* times, the actual production represents only
replacement bottles and initial sales of introductory sizes. Actual ship-
ments in 1972 amounted to 1.44 billion containers.
The popularity of the metal can and the nonreturnable glass con-
tainer have eroded the demand for returnable containers. Shipments in-
creased each year until 1966, when 1.92 billion units were produced and
30.46 billion were filled. Since then, both the replacement and the total
fills have declined.
Most of the growth of the one-way glass container occurred be
tween 1965 and 1970, when shipments rose from 1.01 billion units to 8.34
billion units. Growth in the past 3 years has been modest, reaching 8.76
billion in 1972.
This rapid growth followed by the sudden slowdown is in part a
result of the changing average size of the containers. The one-way bottles
were initially introduced as large containers. As they achieved greater
acceptance from consumers, the smaller sizes were introduced and the average
volume per container declined from 18.8 ounces in 1964 to 14.1 ounces in
1967. With the introduction of the larger 16- and 32-ounce nonreturnable
containers, the average volume has again increased, reaching a level of
17.35 ounces in 1972. The trend to larger average size is projected to
continue, reaching 18.5 ounces in 1975 and 20 ounces in 1980.
I The returnable container has remained the preferred unit for the
6-to 12-oiince vending machine markets. Its volume has been relatively con-
stant during the past decade, varying from 8.9 to 10.6 ounces.— However,
there has been a significant change in the.size mix for nonvended sales.
The subject of average trippage is a matter of considerable debate., We
could not determine the actual trippage being experienced today. It
is probably at least 12 trips for soft drinks, but varies over the nation
from 5 to 20 trips and above. However, these estimates are based on
discussions, not documentation.
247
-------
The percentage of 6- to 9-ounce containers has declined significantly in
favor of the larger 16-and 32-ounce resealable returnable (Table A-6). In-
dications are that this trend will continue and the average volume per con-
tainer is increasing in returnable containers.
TABLE A-6
MARKET SHARE BY CONTAINER SIZE FOR SOFT DRINKS. 1967 AND 1972
(In percent)
Percent
Container (ounces)
6-9
10-12^
16
24 and over
Total 100.0 100.0
1967
18.6
60.9
15.2
6.2
1972
8.6
58.4
20.4
12.6
a_/ Metal cans and glass containers. All others are predominantly glass,
Source: National Soft Drink Association.
The development of the resealable feature and the promotion of
the returnable bottle as the"ecological"container should begin to slow the
decline in returnable containers. Similarly, the possibility of deposits
on nonreturnable units will cause conversion back to returnable bottles in
some states. Although Oregon and Vermont are the only states that have
enacted this kind of law, it is possible that other states will consider
similar laws which would cause a conversion to returnable units.* As -Table
A-5 shows, we are projecting a slight decline in returnable beverage containers
through 1975 to a level of 1.3 billion units per year. There will also be
a slow down in the growth of the nonreturnable beverage containers from its
previous rapid rate. Total demand should increase about 4.3 percent per
year through 1975, to a level of 9.9 billion units, and then increase at
2-1/2 percent per year to 11.2 billion units in 1980. Beyond 1980, with the
introduction of the all plastic container, the total demand for nonreturnable
and returnable containers will remain at the 1980 level.
* E.g., South Dakota.
248
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Beer Containers
The brewing industry is one of the oldest in the United States,
dating back to the early 17th .Century.. It was not until 1840, when lager
beer was introduced, that the manufacture of malt beverages became a major
industry in this country. The lager beer which is a light, mild beer was
readily accepted by the American public as being more palatable than the
heavier dark beers and is today the predominant beer, produced in this
country. Beer is marketed to consumers in glass containers and metal cans
or as draught in kegs and barrels.. The latter is predominantly consumed-
in taverns and other establishments where beer is permitted to be served.-
Draught beer has declined from 48.3 percent of the total production in 1940
to 13.3 percent in 1972.
The total fillings of packaged beer (cans and bottles) was 2:3-.2,
billion units in 1962, and rose to 37.4 billion units in 1972. By 1990,-
the total packaged fillings of beer will be 62 million units.
In.contrast to soft drinks, which are packaged-by franchise dealers,
beer is packaged at the brewery in much larger volume than corresponding.';
soft drink plants. These plants continue to get larger as the brewing indus-
try becomes more concentrated. The number of breweries has declined from
611 in 1940, to 158 in 1969.2i/
Beer Consumption: The growth rate of beer consumption.has been
erratic throughout its history in the United States. After increasing
steadily during the early part of the century, consumption dropped rapidly
with the advent of prohibition. When this law was repealed, production did
not reach the preprohibition level until the Second World War. Demand ;
increased from 55 million barrels i.n 1941, to 85 million barrels in 1946, and
it remained at this level until the early 1960's. Growth again resumed,
and demand from 1962 to 1972 increased at a rate of 3.7 percent per year.
It has expanded more rapidly in recent years, growing at 4.3 percent per
year between 1967 and 1972, when demand reached 1-31.9 million! barrels .
(Table A-7).
249
-------
TABLE A-7
BEER CONSUMPTION. 1962-1990
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Growth
Percent/Year
1962-1967
1967-1972
1972-1975
1975-1980
1980-1990
(In
Total
Consumption
91.2
93.8
98.6
100.4
104.3
106.9
111.4
116.3
121.6
127.4
131.9
148.3
178.4
204.8
226.2
Total
3.2
4.3
4.0
3.6
2.4
million barrels)
Packaged
Barrels Percent
74.1
76.3
80.7
82.6
86.5
89.6
94.0
99.0
104.4
109.9
114.2
130.3
159.4
184.8
205.2
•
Packaged
3.9
5.1
4.5
4.1
2.5
81.3
81.4
81.8
82.3
83.0
83.7
84.4
85.1
85.9
86.4
86.7
87.8
89.3
90.2
90.7
Draught
Barrels Percent
17.1
17.5
17.9
17.8
17.8
17.3
17.4
17.3
17.2
17.5
17.7
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
18.7
18.6
18.2
17.7
17.0
16.3
15.6
14.9
14.1
13.6
13.3
12.
10.
9.8
9.3
,2
,7
Draught
0.2
0.4
0.5
1.1
1.0
Source: U.S. Brewers Association, 1962-1972; MRI estimate, 1972-1990,
250
-------
Studies have shown that the highest percentage or beer drinkers
are found among people under age 30 and the highest per capita volume in-
take of beer occurs among those age 30 to 44.^2.' Table A-8 shows the present
and projected population growth by age segment for the years 20 to 44 from
1960 to 1990. The large number of babies born after World War II became
young adults of beer drinking age during the middle 1960's and caused the
resurgent growth in beer consumption. This population group will continue
to increase faster than the total population through 1.980, and then slow
between 1980 and 1990. Assuming that past trends will continue and that
this group will be the greatest per capita consumers of beer, we project
demand to grow at 4 percent per year through 1977, and then grow at a de-
creasing rate through 1990. Total consumption of beer which amounted to
131.9 million barrels in 1972, should rise to 178.4 million barrels in 1980
and 226.2 million barrels by 1990 (Table A-7). Packaged beer will parallel
this growth, increasing from 114.2 million barrels in 1972 to 159.4 million.
barrels in 1980, and 205.2 million barrels in 1990 (Figure A-5). Draught
beer, which has not grown in the past decade, will increase slightly during
the period of this forecast.
Beer Containers: Originally, beer was packaged only in^returnu.'1 Le
glass containers, mainly in 12-ounce bottles. The metal can was introduced
in 1935, and has demonstrated its popularity by becoming the largest volume
container in the packaged beer market. Since 1962, metal cans have increased
from 37.1 percent to 58 percent of all packaged beer . (Table A-9, .Figure A-6').
Can volume during the same period increased from 9.1 billion to 21.6 billion
units for a growth rate of 9.1 percent per year.
The nonreturnable glass container was introduced during the Second
World War primarily for overseas shipment and was used to compete with the
metal can for the "convenience" market after the war. Growth was slow,
reaching only a 6 percent penetration of packaged sales by 1959. In that
year, the glass container manufacturers redesigned the bottle and lowered
its cost to compete with the can. This did much to stimulate the growth
of the one-way gl-ss container and it increased from 3.4 billion units and
14 percent of the packaged market in 1962, to 7.6 billion units and 24 per-
cent of the packaged market in 1972. This is equivalent to a growth rate
of 8.4 percent per year for the period; total beer demand since 1967 has
increased at 5.8 percent per year.
251
-------
TABLE A-8
U.S. POPULATION BY AGE
(Thousands)
Age Group
Total
1960
57,698
1970 1975
64,353
73,239
1980
83,399
1990
20-24
25-34
35-44
10,803
22,823
24,072
16,372
24,909
23,072
19,404
31,114
22,721
21,067
36,962
25,370
17,823
41,791
36,902
95,516
PERCENT CHANGE
Age Group
1960-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1990
20-24
25-34
35-44
51.6
9.1
(4.2)
18.5
24.9
(1.5)
8.6
18.8
11.7
(18.2)
13.0
45.4
Total
11.5
13.8
13.9
14.5
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1960-1970;
Projections--1975-1990, Series D.
252
-------
to
Ol
u>
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
£ 100
jj 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Total
Metal Cans
One Way Glass
_« — — —"'
Round Trip Glass
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-5 - Beer Consumption By Container, 1963-1990
•'(Million, Barrels)
-------
TABLE A-9
PACKAGED BEER CONSUMPTION BY PACKAGE TYPE. 1962-1990
(In million barrels)
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
74.1
76.3
80.6
82.6
86.5
89.5
94.0
99.0
104.4
109.9
114.2
130.3
159.4
194.8
205.2
Metal
Barrels
27.5
29.6
32.9
34.5
38.9
41.6
46.3
50.4
55.3
58.7
66.2
80.3
101.3
119.0
134.5
Cans
Percent
37.1
38.8
40.8
41.7
45.0
46.5
49.2
51.0
53.0
53.4
58.0
61.6
63.5
64.5
65.5
One -Way
Barrels
10.3
11.7
13.2
14.2
15.2
17.5
18.0,
20.8
22.0
25.8
27.4
31.8
39.9
47.6
52.5
Glass
Percent
14.0
15.3
16.4
17.2
17.6
19.5
19.2
21.0
21.0
23.5
24.0
24.4
,25.1
25.6
25.6
Round -Trip Glass
Barrels
36.3
35.0
34.5
33.9
32.4
30.4
29.7
27.8
27.1
25.4
20.6 .
18.2
18.2
18.2
18.2
Percent
48.9
45.9
42.8
41.1
37.4
34.0
31.6
28.0
26.0
23.1
18.0
14.0
11.4
9.9
8.9
Growth
Percent/Year
1962-1967
1967-1972
1972-1975
1975-1980
1980-1990
Total
3.2
4.3
4.0
3.6
2.4
Metal Cans
8.6
9.8
6.7
4.7
3.1
One-Way Glass
11.2
9.4
5.9
4.6
2.8
Round-trip Glass
(3.5)
(8.1)
(4.1)
0.0
0.0
Source: U.S. Brewers Association, 1962-1972. MRI estimate 1975-1990.
254
-------
N>
Ul
Round Trip.
Glass 48.9%
1962
74,100,000 Barrels
1972
114,200,000 Barrels
SOURCE: U.S. Brewers Association 1962- 1972
Figure A-6 -_ Packaged Beer Container Market Shares^, 1962-1972 :.
-------
The growth of the metal can and single trip glass container has
been at the expense of the returnable bottle. Its share of the market has
steadily declined from 48.9 percent in 1962, to 18 percent in 1972. Total
bottles filled, which was estimated at 11.5 billion units in 1962, have
declined to 8.3 billion in 1972.' Because of the high trippage* on returnable!
beer bottles, the annual replacement production only amounted to 245 million
containers in 1972, a decline from 353 million in 1962.
As contrasted to the soft drink container, there has been no
noticeable change in size during the past decade. The 12-ounce container is
the most popular unit in bottles and metal cans, and accounts for approximately
70 percent of the total packaged beer. There has been some increase in de-
mand for the larger sizes such as the 32-ounce glass quart and the 16-ounce
can and glass container, which accounts for most of the remaining 30 percent
of the package market.
A small percentage is also available in 8-, 11-, and 15-ounce
cans and bottles, but their volume is small. The plastic container, which
is predicted to penetrate the soft drink market by 1980, is not expected to
become a factor in the beer market. Beer must be pasteurized at 150°F and
most barrier resins begin to soften at this temperature. There are some
plastic containers under test by selected brewers, but we do not envision
they will be a factor during this decade.
Metal cans are projected to continue to increase their share of
the packaged beer market, althoughat a slower rate during the next 2 decades.
From a share of 58 percent of the packaged beer market, cans will increase
to 63.5 percent by 1980, and 65.5 percent by 1990 (Figure A-7). Since we
do not project any increase in the average size of the can during this
period, demand will reach 33.5 billion units in 1980, and 44.5 billion in
1990 (Figure A-8). This is equivalent to a growth of 5.6 percent per year
through 1980, which will slow to 3.1 percent per year through 1990 (Table A-10).
Nonreturnable glass containers, which now account for 24 percent
of the package market, will increase slowly to 25.1 percent by 1980, and 25.6
percent by 1990. The average size of these containers is projected to in-
crease slowly as the trend to larger sizes continues because of the advantage
of the resealable cap. Thus, the demand for 7.6 billion containers in 1972
will increase to 8.3 billion in 1975 and 9.1 billion by 1980. This is
equivalent to a growth of 2.2 percent per year through 1980.
We estimate average trippage of at least 18 trips for beer. However,
we have no solid documentation and the average trippage is a combina-
tion of on-premise and carry-out beer containers.
256
-------
One Way
Glass 24.0%
Round Trip
Glass
18.0%
1972
114,200,000 Barrels
One Way
Glass 25.1%
1980
159,400,000 Barrels
One Way
Glass 25.6%
1990
205,200,000 Barrels
SOURCE: U.S. Brewers Association 1972
MRI Estimates 1980; 1990
Figure A-7 - Packaged Beer Container Market Share, 1972-1990
-------
to
Ul
CO
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
7- 20.0
o
c
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
l.Ol
1960
Total
Metal Cans
One Way Glass
Round Trip Glass
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-8 - Beer Container Shipments, 1963-1990
-------
TABLE A-10
BEER CONTAINER SHIIMENTS. 1962-1990
(Billions of containers)
,, Round-Trip Glass
' m_j i Ti • 1 1 • _ _ P /
Round-Trip
Year Metal Cans^/ One-Way Glass- Total Fillings£/ Total Replacement Glass^
b/
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
9.1
9.8
10.9
11.5
13.0
13.8
15.3
16.7
19.0
19.6
21.5
26.6
33.5
40.5
44.5
Growth
Percent/Year
1962-1972
1967-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
3.4
3.9
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.8
6.0
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.6
8.3
9.1
10.0
10.5
Metal Cans
9.0
9.2
5.6
3.1
10.9
11.4 >
10.7
11.1
10.8
11.0
10.9
11.4
9.6-
10.0
8.3
7.4
7.1
7.1
7.1
One-Way Glass
8.4
5.8
2.2
1.5
23.4
25.1
26.0
27.3
28.8
30.6
32.2
35.0
35.8
37.0
37.4
42.3
49.7
57.6
62.1
0.35
0.39
0.42
0.50'
: 0.58
0.62
0.48
0.48
0.34
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
Round Trip Replacement
(3.4)
(19.9)
1.7
0.0
Sources: aj Can Manufacturers Institute, 1962-1972; MRI estimates, 1972-1990.
b/ U.S. Department of Commerce, 1962-1972; MRI estimates, 1972-1990.
£/ U.S. Department of Commerce, "Closures for containers," 1962-1971;
Midwest Research Institute estimates, 1972-1990.
259
-------
Round-trip glass containers should continue to decline through 1990,
at which point they are projected to stabilize at about 7.1 billion fills per
year. Total production of round-trip glass containers for replacement, which
was 245 million units in 1972, should decline to 216 million units by 1975,
and remain at that level through 1990.
Distilled Spirits Containers
Distilled spirits are an important segment of the beverage market.
Products classed as distilled spirits include whiskey, gin, vodka, rum,
brandy, cordials and liqueurs. Consumption of these products amounted to
389 million wine gallons* in 1972, and has grown at a rate of 4.3 percent
per year during the past decade.
Bourbon and blended whiskey are the largest selling distilled spirits,
accounting for 37.5 percent of the 1972 market. Demand for these products has
been static during the last decade due to the consumers' increasing demand for
imported Scotch and Canadian whiskeys which now amount to 23.1 percent of the
market. Rising disposable income, increased leisure time and the increased per-
centage of population in the 25 to 35 age bracket have been stimulants to the
growth in demand for distilled spirits. These factors will generate a 4.5
percent per year growth in demand during the rest of the decade, to a level of
550 million gallons by 1980 (Table A-ll). Per capita consumption will increase
from 1.86 gallons in 1972, to 2.40 gallons in 1980.
Sales of distilled spirits are strictly controlled by the federal
government. Shipments are nearly all in glass containers which vary in size
from less than 1/2 pint to as large as 1 gallon. The most popular sizes are
the 4/5-quart .and quart containers. Shipments by container size are shown
in Table A-12 for the years 1961, 1966 and 1971. There has been a trend
toward the quart and ha If-galIon containers which have had the greatest
growth during the past decade. Containers holding a quart or greater have
.increased their market share from 24.5 percent of the volume in 1961 to 44
percent in 1971. The trend toward the larger sizes should continue as the
per capita consumption of distilled spirits increases. Table A-13 shows the
number of containers by size during the same period. Total container ship-
ments increased from 1.677 billion in 1961 to 2.298 billion in 1972. Because
of increasing container size, the number of containers grew at a rate of
3.3 percent per year during this period which is less than the 4.3 percent
volume growth. Assuming that this trend toward larger sizes will continue
at the same rate, the growth for containers is projected at 3.5 percent per
year through 1980, when they will reach a level of 3.16 billion units.
* Wine gallon is a term used by the Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Division,
Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Treasury Department, for measurement of
distilled spirits volume. It is equivalent to (1) U.S. gallon (231
cubic inches).
260
-------
: TABLE A-11
, DISTILLE!) SPIRITS .CONSUMPTION. 1960 TO J980 "
Equivalent
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Wine Gallons
(millions)
234.7
241.5
253.7
259.0
275.9
293.0
307.8
323.5
344.1
361.7
371.1
381.1
389.0
444.0
550.0
650.0
770.0
Growth -
Gallons
1961-1972 4.3.
1972-1980 4.5
1980-1990 3.5
Consumption
Per Capita
1.31
1.32
1.37
, . 1.37
1.44
1.52
1.58
. 1.64.
1.73
1.80
1.82
1.85
1.86
2.06
2.40
2.70
3.00 -
Percent Per Year
Containers
3.3
3.5
2.5
Glass Containers
.(billions)
1.68
1.72
1.78
1.86
1.96
2.08
2.16
2.27
2.42
2.42
2.30
2.40
2.66
3.16
3.50
4.00
Source: Distilled Spirits Institute, 1960-1972; MRI estimate, 1972-1980,
261
-------
TABLE A-12
DISTILLED SPIRITS VOLUME BY CONTAINER SIZE. 1961 TO 1971
(In thousand wine gallons equivalent)
Size Container
1/2 Pint
3/4-1 Pint
3/4-4/5 Quart
1 Quart
1/2 Gallon
1 Gallon
1961
30,033
43,119
104,062
56,628
2,713
103
1966
36,325
48,770
121,923
91,050
10,127
245
1971
38,032
47,507
120,219
126,275
35,363
481
Percent
Increase
1961-1971
26.6
10.2
15.5
123.0
1,203.0
367.0
Total
242,548
308,440
367,879
51.5
Source: Distilled Spirits Industry.
TABLE A-13
DISTILLED SPIRITS CONTAINER DEMAND BY SIZE. 1961 TO 1971
(In thousand units)
Size Container
1/2 Pint
3/4-1 Pint
3/4-4/5 Quart
1 Quart
1/2 Gallon
1 Gallon
Total
1961
547,171
352,985
544,908
226,512
5,427
103
1,677,106
1966
682,497
405,564
610,376
364,202
20,254
245
2,083,138
1971
721,836
398,038
602,396
505,104
70,726
481
2,298,581
Increase
1961-1971
174,665
45,053
47,488
278,592
65,299
378
621,475
Source: Distilled Spirits Industry.
262
-------
Imported distilled spirits are mostly Scotch and Canadian whiskey.
Their share of the market during 1971 represented 26.2 percent of the total
consumption--an increase from 16.5 percent in 1962. About 70 percent of
these spirits are imported in bottles,,..although increasing quantities of
bulk Scotch 'and Canadian whiskeys are being bottled in the United States.
Bottled imported spirits amounted to 13.3 percent of all" bottled shipments
in 1961, and increased to 17.6 percent in 1971. The trend toward bulk im-
ports should continue and foreign Bottled spirits will level off at about
20 percent of the market by 1980.
Although glass has been the sole container for this market, PVC
bottles have been test marketed for replacement of the larger container sizes.
Until this year,it was expected that these bottles would be.approved and that
they would be accepted in the larger container sizes. Recent tests indicated
to the FDA that the alcohol was reacting.with the resin in the container, and
FDA has suspended the use of these bottles until further testing and evalua-
tion is conducted. It is impossible to determine, at this time, whether they
will eventually be approved; therefore, we are assuming that glass will remain
the sole container until improved resins are developed for this market.
These resins will most likely be the nitrile or composites and will not be
commercial before 1980. Beyond 1980, we have assumed that the plastic con- , &
tainer will be accepted and absorb all the growth in this market. Glass
containers will increase to 3.0 billion units by 1980jand remain at this
level (Figure A-9).
Wine Containers
Wine is a product of fermented juice of grapes or other fruit. It
may include the addition of sugar, grape concentrate,.herbs or alcohol. Wines
are usually classified into table wine, dessert wine, vermouth, sparkling
wines and "pop wine." The latter are lightly carbonated wines which are
heavily advertised to the youth' segment of the market. Table wine is the
most popular brand with dessert wine a distant second; The pop wines have
had the fastest growth, increasing from 16.1 million gallons in 1970, to
46.3 million gallons in 1972 (Table A-14).
Prior to 1966, wine grew steadily at 2 to 3 percent per year. The
increasingly affluent American public suddenly became aware of wine as a '
table drink and demand increased at over 10 percent per year to a volume of
337 million gallons in 1972. This rate of growth is not expected to be main-,
tained since the supply is limited by the amount of.grapes harvested.
Demand will grow at a more moderate rate of 4.6 percent per year through
1980 to 485 million gallons (Table A-15).
263
-------
10,000
c-
o
Total...
— "" ~" Glass
Domestic Glass
1,000
/•
100
I
1960
1965
1970
1975
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-9 - Distilled Spirits Consumption by Container, 1961-1990
-------
TABLE A-14;
WINE DEMAND BY TYPE:.'.-1970 TO 1972
(In million wine gallons)
. 1970 1971 1972
Produc- Produc- Produr-
Type Wine tion Import Total tion Import Total .tion Import Total
fable Wine
Dessert Wine
Vermouth
Other still wine
Less than 14%
More than 14%
Sparkling Wine
Total
112.7
71.3
5.1
. 16.1
11.7
20.4
237.3
20.7
2.4
5.1
—
--
1.8
30.0
133.4
73.7
10.2
16.1
11.7
22.2
267.4
130.1
71.0
4.9
29.3
11.6
22.1
269.1
26.0
2.9
5.4
—
--
1.9
36.2
156.2
73.9
10.3
29.3
11.6
24.0
305.2
136.3
70.0
5.1
46.3
11.8
20.4
289.9
37.5
2.7-.,
4.9 •
—
—
2.0
47.0 '
.173.8
: 72.7
10.1
46.3
11.8
22.3
'337.0
Source: The Wine Institute.
265
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Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
'TABLE A-15
WINE CONSUMPTION. 1962-1980
Glass Containers (Millions)
Domestic a/
710
750
780
780
770
820
830
970
1,030
1,150
1,230
1,360
1,590
1,650
1,750
Import
37
39
46
46
51
53
60
71
89
107
140
170
210
250
300
Total
747
789
826
826
821
873
890
1,041
1,119
1,257
1,370
1,530
1,800
1,900
2,050
Wine Consumption
b/
(Millions of Gallons) -
163
171
180
183
187
197
213
235
267
305
337
387
485
570
680
1962-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
Growth Rate - Percent per Year
Total Containers Wine Consumption
6.2
3.5
3.0
7.5
4.6
3.5
Source: £/ Glass Container Manufacturers Institute, 1962-1972; MRI
estimates, 1972-1980.
b/ The Wine Institute, 1962-1972; MRI estimate, 1972-1980.
266
-------
All wine marketed in the United States is packaged in glass con-
tainers. Glass is desired because it provides a good barrier to oxygen and
carbon dioxide; offers a shelf life of more than 1 year; and is approved
by the FDA. It also provides product visibility and can be hot-filled and
pasteurized when bottling. Domestic shipments of glass containers for wine
amounted to 1.23 billion units in 1972. This does not represent all glass
containers for wine since imports are important. There are no statistics
available on the amount of imported wine bottled in the United States com-
pared to that bottled in foreign countries. We assumed that the same ratio
of foreign to domestic bottling applies to wine, as it does to distilled
spirits, where 70 percent of the imports are bottled in foreign lands.
Forty-seven million gallons of wine, equivalent to 14 percent of domestic
consumption, were imported in 1972. This resulted in an additional 140
million containers, bringing the total use of glass wine bottles to 1.37
billion units.
There is a trend toward increasing container size as evidenced
by the increasing average container weight. This will continue, and
overall growth in containers will be 3.5 percent per year through 1980,
when 1.80 billion containers will be used for wine (Figure A-10).
Glass containers have been the only consumer package for wine in
the United States. However, PVC containers have been used to a large extent
in Europe since the 1960's. Their shelf life is much less than glass con-
tainers and oxygen permeability is a problems. However, the demand for wine
in Europe is much greater than in the United States and the turnover is
quite rapid, so shelf life is not a ireal problem in Europe.
There are no indications of a trend toward a plastic container
in the United States. Current research efforts on barrier resins should
yield an acceptable product by 1980 that will meet the requirements of the
industry and the FDA. It is possible that plastic containers may be im-
ported into the United States from European wineries. However, a recent
plan by a French wine producing conglomerate to market a rose red table
wine in 48-ounce PVC bottles in the United States was halted by the FDA
because of possible health hazards. Because of this action and the lack of
other satisfactory resins, it will be 1980 before plastic containers be-'
come commercial for wine. ;
267
-------
N)
ON
00
g
id
O
c
O
_
C
C
O
-H
S
10,000
9,000
8.000
7,000
6.000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Container Demand
(Million of Units)
Total Glass
Domestic Glass
Wine Consumption
(Million Gallons)
-I 1 1 i
-I L I i
I960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-10 - Wine Consumption and Container Demand, 1963-1990
-------
THE FOOD INDUSTRY
Food is the nation's largest industry with consumer expenditures
of $124.4 billion in 1972. This is equivalent to 15.7 percent of all per-.
sonal consumption expenditures. Although food expenditures have increased
from $70.1 billion in 1960, its share of the personal disposable income. .
has declined from 20 percent in that year to the present level. Because
of inflation and changing consumer preferences, per capita consumption of
food has risen more slowly. The per capita consumption index for all
foods has increased from 96.4 in 1960 to 103.7 in 1972, representing a real
growth of about 1.85 percent per year in the actual weight of food consumed.
Food Consumption
The above figures include all fresh and processed foods which are
nearly all contained in some form of rigid, flexible or filmed package. A
wide variety of processed foods are packaged in metal cans and glass con-
tainers, although plastic containers are beginning to appear in this market
to a limited extent. Nearly half of these containers are for canned foods
such as soups, vegetables, fruits, fruit juices, and vegetable juices. Other
smalleTjbut significant^markets include pet foods, baby food, canned meat
and fish, condensed and evaporated milk, coffee and tea, salad dressings,
pickles, vegetable oils, peanut butter, syrup and vinegar. These items
represented a market for 44.0 billion rigid containers in 1972.
Processed foods have not shown much growth because of changing
consumer preference toward more convenience foods and other forms of pro-
cessed foods which reduce the amount of time the average housewife spends
in the kitchen. Per capita consumption of some of the major products is
shown in Table A-16. During the period from 1960 to 1972, per capita con-
sumption of condensed and evaporated milk, lard and coffee have declined
significantly. Canned fruits have been relatively stable,while canned
vegetables and juices have had moderate growth. The decline in condensed
and evaporated milk is a result of increasing preference for dry milk solids
in institutions and'at the consumer level. The decline in lard is attributed
to. the reduced amount of lard available from hog processing plants and to
consumer preference for vegetable shortenings. Coffee consumption has
declined because of consumer preference for the sweeter carbonated beverages.
The growth of food products packaged in containers should continue
at slightly under 1 percent per year. A 'projection of consumer spending for
various grocery products to 1980 is shown in Table A-17. Canned and jarred
foodSjWhich account for most of the products packaged in rigid containers,
areexpected to increase from $12.7 billion to $16.5 billion by 1980. Growth,
269
-------
TABLE A-16
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF SELECTED FOODS. 1950 TO 1972
Pounds Per Capita
ood 1950
sh ' 4.9
and
ted Milk 20.1
12.6
uit 21.6
1960
4.0
13.7
7.6
22.6
1965
4.4
10.6
6.4
23.5
1967
4.4
9.0
5.4
22.6
1970
4.4
7.1
4.7
23.3
1971
4-3
6.8
4.3
21.9
1972
6.2
3.8
21.6
Type of Food
Canned Fish
Lard
Canned Fruit
Canned Fruit
Juices 13.5 13.0 10.9 11.7 14.2 15.4 15.6
Canned Vegetables 41.2 43.4 46.9 49.0 51.1 51.2 51.9
Coffee 16.1 15.8 14.9 14.8 13.8 13.3 13.9
Source: "National Food Situation," Economic Research Service, USDA;
National Canner's Association.
TABLE A-17
CONSUMER SPENDING FOR GROCERY PRODUCTS. 1960 TO 1980
Dry stuffs
Bakery, fresh
Other foods
Total
Nonfoods
(In billion dollars)
itegory I960
i, poultry $14.8
1 jarred 9.4
i 5.5
:resh 4.4
rrigerated 6. 1
•esh 3.5
Is 4.1
$47.5
)ds including ice cream 3. 1
L Foods $50.6
9.0
L Grocery $59.6
1970
$20.4
12.7
7.1
5.7
8.7
5.1
7.1
$66.8
5.0
$71.8
13.9
$85.7
1980
$25.6
16.5
9.2
7.2
11.3
6.1
9.3
$85.2
9.5
$94.7
19.1
$113.8
Source: Eastern Frosted Foods; Quick Frozen Foods.
270
-------
f
which averaged 3 percent per year between 1960 and 1970, is projected at a
rate of 2.6 percent between 1970 and 1980. The real rate of growth between
1960 and 1970 was 1.25 percent per year adjusted for inflation. Assuming
the same rate of inflation during the next decade, the real, growth would
average 0.85 percent per year. Thus, a growth less than 1 percent per year
during the next decade for food products packaged in metal cans, glass con-
tainers, and plastic bottles is realistic.
Food Processing
I-
Most foods are preserved by heat sterilization or pasteurization
to kill or inactivate harmful bacteria. The heat treatment is usually
conducted in the filled and closed containers, with a temperature in excess
of 230°F and the finished product is normally under a high vacuum. Products
such as vegetables, baby foods, poultry, meat, fish and soups, which have
a pH of 4.5 or greater, are canned by this method. Acid foods: such as fruits,
tomato products and juices are processed in the container at a lower tem-
perature of 185-190°F, and at a vacuum of about 10 inches of mercuiy. Fruit
juices and drinks are given a high temperature treatment and then v/ara or
cold filled. Therefore, the package must have the following characteristics:
it should have an excellent barrier to oxygen; it should be chemically and
physically inert so that no flavor changes are in evidence; it must have a
hermetic seal; it must be able to withstand processing conditions of high
temperatures and pressure or vacuum.
Metal cans and glass have satisfactorily met these challenges and
can also provide a shelf life of a year or longer. Glass containers have
the added feature of allowing product visibility for merchandising appeal,
but they are also breakable.
Food Containers
Glass containers and metal cans each have their own distinctive
markets and there has been competition between them in only a few products.
Metal cans are used for canning fruits, vegetables and their juices, evapo-
rated milk, meats, poultry, fish, lard, soups and pet foods. Glass con-
tainers are used when product visibility or a resealable feature is desired.
Salad dressings, horseradish, pickles, peanut butter, syrup, vinegar,
jellies, catsup and baby foods are in this category. Some, fruits and
vegetables are packed in glass, but this is predominantly a can market.
Soluble coffee and tea are packed in glass containers and vacuum packed
coffee is packaged in metal containers.
271
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Because of their unique properties, glass and metal cans have
dominated this market. Its potential of 44 billion units represents a
lucrative market for the development of a plastic container which would
have the added advantages of being nonbreakable and light weight. However,
the severe requirements of high temperature, pressure or vacuum packaging,
low oxygen permeability, and visibility prevent most of the existing resins
from competing in this market. . .
Recent developments of improved resins that meet some of the less
severe requirements indicate that plastics may begin to penetrate this
market in greater depth. PVC and polypropylene bottles are being used to
package vinegar, syrup, mustard, vegetable oils and liquid margarines. The
nitrile barrier resins have shown promise and are being evaluated in selected
markets.
It is not expected, that the PVC container will become a factor
because of its high cost and potential problem of migration of the resin
from the container into the product as experienced in the liquor container.
Polypropylene containers will achieve a good growth because of their ability
to be hot filled. These containers will compete with glass where clarity
and a resealable feature are desired.
Food Container Demand
The demand for food containers has increased slightly during the
past decade from 41.5 billion units in 1962, to 43.9 billion in 1972. Because
of significant variations in the seasonal canning of fruits and vegetables,
demand was as low as 39.6 billion in 1963, and as high as 44.4 billion in
1970. Average growth during this period was less than 1 percent per year
(Table A-18).
Demand for food containers is projected to increase at 0.5 per-
cent per year through 1980, to reach a level of 46.1 billion units. Most
of the growth will be absorbed by plastic containers, as improved resins
are developed to compete in additional markets (Figure A-11).
Metal cans: Metal cans make up close to 75 percent of this
market and are used to contain a wide variety of foods. Demand in 1972
at 31.3 billion units was nearly the same as the 1962 use of 31.4 billion
cans. Because of seasonal variations in food corps, the can demand varied
from a low of 29.3 billion in 1965, to a high of 32.0 billion in 1970.
272
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TABLE A-18
FOOD CONTAINER SHIPMENTS. 1962 TO 1990
(In millions of units)
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
'.
1962-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
Glass-7
10,068
10,072
10,507
11,023
10,788
11,872
11,183
11,901
12,080
11,783
11,920
12,210
12,400
12,400
12,400
Glass
1.7
0.5
0.0
, • /
Metal Cans-
31,412
29,428
30,339
29,291
29,998
29,787,
30,816
30,811
32,000
31,400
31,300
31,500
32,000
32,500
33,000
Growth Rate
Metal Cans
0.0
0.4
0.4
Aerosol—
•"__
70.0
71.5
89.7
69.6
100.5
85.9
88.3
90.3
85.6
100.0
120.0
150.0
180.0
200.0
Percent Per
Aerosol
4.0
5.2
3.0
Plastic-7
21.9
50.8
56.9
174.8
99.4
121.0
202.1
278.2
458.1
600.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Year
Plastic
12.1
5.4
Tota 1
41,480
. ; 39,592
40,952
40,488
40,933
41,847
42,223
43,001
44,438
43,724
43,900
44,830
46,050
47,080
48 , 100
Total
0.6
0.5
0.4
a/ U.S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging", 1962-1972;
MRI estimates, 1972-1990.
b/ Can Manufacturers Institute, 1962-1972; MRI estimates, 1972-1990.
273
-------
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50.000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
•4,000
3.000
2,000
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Total
Metal Cans
Glass Containers
Plastic
1001 i i I i i I i i I I I i i I i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Figure A-ll - Food Container Shipments, 1961-1990
274
-------
Although the total use of cans has been constant, the composition
of the market has changed as shown (Table A-19). Only pet foods and baby
food have shown any growth pattern, while fruit and fruit juices, evaporated
and condensed milk, lard and shortening and coffee have declined appreciably.
TABLE A-19
CANNED FOOD SHIPMENTS. BY TYPE. 1962 TO 1972
(In million units)
Millions of Cans Increase
Type oi' Food 1962 1972 Millions Percent
Fruit and Fruit Juices 7,384 5,788 (1,596). .(21.6).
Vegetables and Juices 8,176 9,200 1,024 12.5
Evaporated-Condensed Milk 2,196 1,420 . (776) (35.3)
Other Dairy Products 242 203 (41) (16.9)
Meat and Poultry 1,393 1,733 340 24.4
Fish and Seafoods 1,813 1,661 (152) (8.4)
Lard and Shortening 413 302 (111) (26.8)
Baby Food and Formulas 509 860 351 69.0
All Other Food & Soups 6,016 5,740 (276) (4.6)
Coffee 1,054 839 (215) (20.4)
Pet Food 2.216 3.567 1.351 60.9
Total 31,412 31,313 (99) (0.3)
Sources: Can Manufacturers Institute; U.S. Department of Commerce,
"Containers and Packaging."
This changing product mix will continue through 1980 and demand
will increase only at a rate of 0.4 percent per year to a level of 32.0
billion cans by 1°80, and 33.0 billion by 1990. The average size should
not change, with a trend to the larger "family sizes" in some fruits and
vegetables offset by the development of pull-top, 5-ounce, single service
cans for puddings and specialty foods.
h Aerosol food containers, which never developed into the markets
projected for them, amount to about 100 million units per year and should
increase to 150 million by 1980.
275
-------
Glass containers: Glass containers amount to 25 percent of. the food
market and have increased from 10.1 billion units in 1962, to 11.9 billion
in 1972,, for a growth rate of 1.7 percent per year. There is no available
published information on the number of containers for each food category.
It is estimated that the largest volume markets are baby foods, salad
dressings, pickles, jellies and jams, ketchup and meat sauces.
Demand for glass containers is projected to increase at 0.5 per-
cent per year,, to reach a level of 12.4 billion units by 1980, and remain at
this level. Much of the growth that would have occurred during this period
will be achieved by plastic containers which have already penetrated the
syrup, vinegar and cooking oil markets where large containers are used.
Plastic containers; Plastic containers amounted to 600 million
units in 1972. About 300 million were polyethylene beverage containers
used 'for noncarbonated soft drinks and juices. The balance include PVC
and polypropylene used for packaging vinegar, syrup, vegetable oils, and
liquid margarines.
Growth of plastic containers will be steady, but not rapid, due
to the severe requirements of the food industry. Demand should reach a
level of 750 million by 1980, and then could increase more rapidly beyond
1980 if a good barrier resin with the strength and high temperature resist-
ance is developed.
Fluid Milk Packaging
Fluid milk, although part of the food industry, is a distinct
entity as it relates to containers. Fluid milk consumption has been de-
clining slowly from 53.3 billion pounds in 1962, to 51.8 pounds in 1972.
Consequently, per capita consumption has declined--from 285 pounds in 1962
to 252 pounds in 1972. Relatively little change is seen in the trend of
milk consumption during che next 2 decades as per capita consumption
continues to decline because of consumer preference for sweeter carbonated
drinks, and other beverages.
Milk packaging .has been affected by consumer demands for larger
size containers and the trend toward purchases at supermarkets, rather than
through home delivery. Wholesale milk sales have increased from 72 per-
cent of the total in 1964,, to 85 percent in 1971 (Table A-20). Indications
are that this trend will continue toward a larger percentage of milk being
purchased through wholesale markets. Historically, home delivered purchases
have been in returnable glass containers, and milk sold through supermarkets
(wholesale) was predominantly in paper containers. However, home delivery
now is commonly in paperboard, plastic or glass.
276
-------
TABLE A--'20
FLUID MILK DISTRIBUTION BY MARKET SEGMENT. 1964 AND 1971
(Percent by volume)
Percent
Market Segment 1964 1971
Wholesale 72 85
Retail , ' - 28 15
Total 100 100
Source: Dairy Situation, USDA, November 1972.
FLUID MILK DISTRIBUTION BY CONTAINER SIZE. 1964 AND 1971
(Percent by volume)
Percent
Size Unit
Gallon
Half Gallon
.Quart
Pint
Half Pint
Other
Bulk
Total 100 100
1964
16
53
13
2
10
1
5
1971
29
43
10
2
11
. 1
4
Source: Dairy Situation, USDA, November 1972.
Average package sizes are increasing as indicated in Table A-21.
Gallon containers, which accounted for 16 percent of total milk in 1964,,
increased to 29 percent in 1971, primarily at the expense of the half gallon
units.
277
-------
TABLE A-21
FLUID MILK DISTRIBUTION BY CONTAINER TYPE
(Percent by volume)
1964 1971 1980
Paper 64.0 78.4 21.0
Glass 30.0 6.6
Bulk Can 3.0 0.4
Plastic Bag in Box 3.0 4.0
Plastic Container ^. 10.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Dairy Situation, 1964-1971, USDA, November 1972;
1980 estimate Hoover Ball and Bearing Company,
'Vlilk Packaging Trends in the Dairy Industry;"
The Wall Street Transcript, April 9, 1973".
The most significant changes have occurred in the type of con-
tainer as shown in Table A-22. Glass containers, which accounted for 30
percent of sales in 1964, declined rapidly to 6.6 percent in 1971. Paper,
which was 64 percent in 1964, increased its share to 78.4 percent during
the same period. However, the most rapid development has been the plastic
blow molded polyethylene container, which accounted for nearly 11 percent
in 1971, from its initial marketing in 1964.
TABLE A-22
COMPARATIVE COST OF RAW MATERIALS FOR MILK CONTAINERS
(In $ per thousand)
Plastic
Container Size Paper Plastic Weight
I
Half Pint . $ 7.19/M $ 2.42/M 8 grams
Half Gallon 24.38/M 12.13/M 40 grams
One Gallon .48.08/M 24.26/M 80 grams
Source: "Milk Packaging Trends in The Dairy Industry,"The Wall Street
Transcript, April 9, 1973.
278
-------
More recently, a plastic returnable milk container has been test
marketed in the U.S.A; It reportedly will make up to 50 trips. Should this
container gain in acceptance, it could completely change o; r forecasts given
in Table A-21 beca'use the1 one-way container market could decline appreciably.
A number of factors have accounted for the growth of the one-way.
polyethylene container. The development of blow molding equipment, which can
be installed in the milk plant, the trend to larger sized gallon containers,
the increasing size of dairy plants, and the decreasing cost of polyethylene
resins have all contributed to this growth. Most of the growth has come at
the expense of the returnable glass container, which should be replaced com-
pletely by polyethylene by 1980. More significantly, polyethylene containers
are reported to be competitive with paper containers. In fact, the compara-
tive cost of plastic and paper for various sized containers indicates plastics
are lower cost, assuming a 13-1/2 cents per pound cost of resin (Table A-22).
At this price, raw material costs for plastic are nearly half the cost of
paper. Even with additional costs for closures that will vary from $1.80
to $8.00 per thousand, and the cost of labor and amortization of the equip-
ment, the total costs are favorable to polyethylene containers.
It is possible that this relative cost difference will not change
during the next 2 decades and that polyethylene containers will continue,
to increase their share of this market. Estimates, as shown in the Table
A-21, indicate that by 1980 plastic containers will have 75 percent.of the
market with the balance being paper containers. However, we must raise
serious question whether this forecast will hold up in the wake of the "energy
crisis" and moves by the paperboard producers to preserve this market.
: It should also be noted that about 4 percent of the market con-
sists of plastic-bag-in-a-box containers for larger 5-10 quart sizes. The
development of this container for the home refrigerator never achieved a
large commercial success and its share has been relatively consistent during
this period. With the trend toward smaller families and a decreasing per
capita consumption, we do not envision that this share will Increase during
the next 2 decades.
HOUSEHOLD AND INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
A wide variety of household and industrial chemicals are used by
consumers; institutions,^ and industrial firms. Major consumer products are
liquid detergents, bleach, insecticides, room deodorants, polishes and
waxes, starch, ammonia, window cleaners, disinfectants, inks and dry clean-
ing spot removers. Industrial chemicals include a wide variety of com-
mercial and research chemicals such as acids, dyes, reagents and solvents
used In various industrial and institutional establishments.
279
-------
This was originally a glass container market since the inertness
of glass made it a desirable container for products which were corrosive
or toxic. However, glass is breakable and the hazardous nature of many of
these products made it an ideal market for the introduction of blow molded
plastic containers. It also was the first volume market for blow molded
containers.
Liquid detergents and bleach were the first consumer markets to
convert, and today, are nearly all packaged in plastic containers. These
products represent 55 percent of all plastic containers used for household
and industrial chemicals.
After penetration into these markets, other cleaning preparations
such as fabric softeners, starch, floor wax, ammonia, and the dry powdered
cleaning products such as bowl cleaners and drain cleaners, were converted
to plastics. Plastic containers have now captured most of the glass con-
tainer markets where product compatibility does not present a problem.
Current conversions include window cleaners, where a clear plastic is de-
sired,, and insecticides, where product compatibility is not a problem.
Industrial chemical containers amount to about 10 percent of the
household chemical containers and include a wide variety of chemicals and
industrial detergents used by industrial and commercial firms. Many of
these are large, reusable containers found in .research and testing labora-
tories.
Metal aerosol containers have become a significant factor in the
consumer convenience markets. They are used for insecticides, room deodor-
ants, cleaners, waxes, polishes and starches. The methodsof use of these
products make them ideal for aerosol systems and they have been readily
accepted by the consumer.
The historical and projected growth of household and industrial
chemical containers is shown in Table A-23.. Demand has increased at 4.5
percent per year since 1963, the first year in which plastic container
shipments were reported by the Department of Commerce. This growth rate
was more rapid during the early part of the decade, and since 1967, has been
growing at 3 percent per year. Container use has grown from 3.0 billion
units in 1963, to 4.24 billion units in 1972.
The future growth rate of household and industrial chemical con-
tainers will approach population growth because of the lack of new product
innovation and the saturation of most existing markets. Demand should grow
at 1.9 percent per year between 1972 and 1980, and decrease to a rate of
1.7 percent per year through 1990. Correspondingly, container use will
reach 5.01 billion units in 1980, and 5.9 billion in 1990 (Figure A-12).
280
-------
TABLE A-23
HOUSEHOLD AND INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS CONTAINER SHIPMENTS, 1962 TO 1990
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966 :
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980'
1985
1990
•
Growth Rate
%/year
1963-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
Glass
1,358
li-278
1,061
991
837
816
624
648
615
562
608
500
500
500
500
Glass
(8.6)
(2.5)
0
(In millions of
Plastic
*
1,389
1,618 . %
1,773
2,049
2,175
2,380
2,508
2,714 "
2,737
2,850
3,150
3,450
3,800
4,150
Plastic
-
8.3
2.4
2.0
containers)
Aerosol
232
296
466
571
622
670
664
70 1
728
732
830
895
1,060
1,170
1,285
Aerosol
10.5
2.5
' 2.0
Total
*
2,963
3 , 145
3,335
3:,508
3,661
3,669
3,857
4,057
4,032
4,290
4,545
5,010
5,470
5,935
Total-
4.5
1.9
1.7
* Not reported.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging," 1962-1972.
Midwest Research Institute estimates, 1972-1990.
281
-------
r-o
oo
10,000
9.000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4.000
3,000
.2 2,000
I 1.000
c 900
u 800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
1 r
i 1 r
1 1 r
Total
Plastic
Aerosol
Glass
ill ill
i i i i i
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Figure A-12 - Household and Industrial Chemical Container Shipments, 1963-1990
199C
-------
Plastic containers have grown at a rate of 8.3 percent since
1963. This rate of growth has'been decreasing, and during the last 5 years
was at 5.5 percent per-year. ! Consumption reached 2.84 billion units in
1972, equivalent to two-thirds of the household and industrial chemical
market. Plastic containers have about reached their limit of penetration
into the glass market, and with the exception of the conversion of window
cleaning products, selected insecticides, and scouring powder demand will
slow to a level slightly above population growth. G-pwth will .be at 3.5
percent per year to 1975, and 2 percent per year through 1990. This will
generate a demand for 3.45 billion containers in 1980 and 4.15 billion in
1990.
Aerosol containers grew rapidly during the early part of the .
decade because of product innovations. Since 1962, when 232 million units
were filled, the growth has averaged 10.5 percent per-year, reaching a level
of 830 million in 1972. Growth has been slowing and during the last 5 years
averaged 4.6 percent per year. A lack of new product innovations and market
saturation will limit future growth to 2.5 percent per year through 1980.
Demand will reach 1.06 billion units in 1980, and 1.29 billion by 1990.
Glass containers reached their highest volume in 1959, when 1.92
billion units were filled. Since that, time, they have declined steadily to
a. level of 600; million units in 1972. Most of-the shift in markets to
plastic and aerosol containers has been completed, and a slight decline to
500 million units is projected by 1975, where it will remain through 1990.
Products such as furniture polish, dry cleaning spot removers, naptha
based insecticides and disinfectants, are still contained in glass. Hydro-
carbon'based plastics will not contain naptha based chemicals, and .with
other- products that are sensitive to light or have strong solvent char-
acteristics, should continue to be packaged in glass.
TOTLFTRTKS AND COSMETICS
Toiletries and cosmetics include a wide variety of personal care
products. It is a highly stylized and rapidly changing market where pack-
aging is very important to the sale of the product. Products are heavily
advertised and many are aimed at the youth market. The packages are crea-
tively designed in colors and molded shapes so that they are easily
recognizable by the consumer.
The toiletry and cosmetic market has been a haven for new product
development. Originally, most cosmetics were packaged in glass or. metal
containers. The development of the aerosol and blow molded plastic con- .
tainers has allowed the packager a wide degree of freedom in package design.
283
-------
Hair sprays, deodorants, antiperspirants, shaving lotion, cologne
and perfumes are popular in aerosol spray form. Sun tan oil, shampoos, hnir
colors, lotions, dry powders, and baby oils are popular in plastic containers.
Men's shaving lotion, nail polish, cold cream, make-up, perfume and colognes
are popular in glass containers.
Toiletries and cosmetics that are packaged in aerosol containers
and shown in Table A-24 are mostly personal care products. Hair care prod-
ucts, deodorants, and antiperspirants are the most popular items, amounting
to 68 percent of all personal aerosol products. The balance is made up of
shaving lathers, colognes, perfumes, medicinal, and pharmaceutical products.
Growth of aerosols was most rapid during the early decade, increasing at 17
percent per year from 1963 to 1970. The growth rate has slowed as the
markets matured, and during the last 5 years grew at a more modest rate of
7.5 percent per year. With existing products reaching maturity and the lack
of significant new product developments,, demand should grow at 4.9 percent
per year through 1980 and decline to 2.5 percent per year inte through
This would generate demand for 2.1 billion units in 1980 and 2.7 billion
in 1990.
TABLE A-24
AEROSOL PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS BY TYPE. 1971 TO 1973
(In million units)
Type Product 1971 1972 1973.2/
Shaving Lathers 159 162 166
Hair Care Products 451 480 490
Medicinals and Pharmaceuticals 56 60 64
Colognes and Perfumes 134 140 147
Deodorants and Antiperspirants 468 505 520
Others 76 90 105
Total 1,344 1,437 1,492
a/ Forecast.
Source: E. I. du Pont Company.
Plastic container usage in toiletries and cosmetics has grown
rapidly during the last decade from 416 million units in 1963 to 1.38
billion in 1972. Much of this growth has been at the expense of glass
containers, which have been replaced by plastic in hair colors, lotions,
baby oils, shampoos, and selected perfumes. The growth of plastic con-
tainers was quite rapid between 1963 and 1969. Since 1969, growth has
284
-------
been erratic, declining from that year's peak of 1.40 billion units to 1.12
billion units in 1970 and i'971, before increasing again to 1.3' billion
units in 1972. This may be due to inaccurate reporting since many firms
have installed blow molding equipment to manufacture their own containers
and may not be reporting their production. Plastic containers are expected
to continue their in-roads into glass markets as well as develop new markets
in the ever changing cosmetic business. Growth is projected at 12.4 per-
cent per year from 1972 to 1980. Beyond 1980, growth wij.1 begin to slow
to a rate of 5 percent through 1990. Plastic containers should reach a
level of 2.1 billion units in 1975, and increase to 3.5 billion units in 1980.
' . '/
Glass container shipments which reached their peak in 1966, with
a volume of 2.3 billion units,, have declined sharply to a Level of 1.3 bil-
lion units in 1972. Glass has lost much of the larger container market,
but still maintains a preferred position in shaving lotions, nail, polish,
cold cream, make-up, perfume and cologne, and numerous cream and gel prod-
ucts packaged in opal jars. With the exception of nail polish, there is
little problem of product compatibility; therefore, these markets are vul-
nerable to further penetration by plastic containers. It is anticipated
that demand for glass containers will continue to decline to a level 1.1
billion units in 1975, and 1 billion units by 1980.
The growth rate for rigid toiletry and cosmetic containers was
rapid during the early I9601s, but has been erratic since 1967. The overall
growth rate between 1963 and 1972 was 3.8 percent per year, increasing from
2.97 billion units in 1963 to 4.17 billion in 1972. Total containers have
probably grown at a faster pace since injection molded plastics, which are
used in many small containers, are not reported separately and are not in-
cluded in production statistics. These containers have replaced numerous
glass containers.
Demand for all containers is projected to increase at 6.0 percent
per year through 1980, and 3.3 percent from 1980 to 1990. This will result
in a market for 6.37 billion containers in 1980 (Table A-25 and Figure A-13).
DRUGS AND PHARMACEUTICALS
A wide variety of medicinal and health products are packaged in
containers. Aspirin, cold tablets, cough syrups, vitamin concentrates,
antacids, mouth washes, milk of magnesia, mineral oils and prescription
drugs are packaged in over 4 billion plastic, glass, and metal containers
each year.
285
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TABLE A-25
TOILETRY AND COSMETIC CONTAINER SHIPMENTS, 1962 TO 1990
(In millions of containers)
Year
Glass
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Growth Rate
%/year
1963-1972
1972-1980
1980-1990
. 2,045
2,026
2,106
2,194
2,299
2,291
1,841
1,817
1,673
1,284
1,336
1,120
.1,000
850
700
Glass
(4.8)
(3.7)
(3.6)
Aerosols
530
607
906
891
1,000
1,174
1,288
1,380
1,344
1,437
1,660
2,100
2,380
2,700
Aerosols
15.6
4.9
2.5
Plastic
416
525
579
784
962
1,128
1,401
1,120
1,136
1,375
2,100
3,500
4,460
5,700
Plastic
14.5
12.4
5.0
Total
2,972
3,238
3,679
3,974
4,253
4,143
4,506
4,173
3,736
4,148
4,880
6,600
7,690
9,100
Total
3.8
6.0
3.3
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging," 1962-1972,
MRI estimates 1972-1990
286
-------
00
10,000
9,000
" 8,000
7,000
6,000
5,.000
4,000
«J 3,000
at
« 2,000
e
,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
I960
Toto!______ -
Plastic _-^-^—
Aerosol
. ^ Glass
I t j i
i i i
1965
Figure A-13
1970 . 1975 . 1980
Toiletry and Cosmetic Containers, 1963-1990
1985
-------
Glass containers have dominated this market because they meet the
requirements of the industry for a container that will protect the product
against light, oxygen and water vapor transmission, have FDA approval, be
inert to the contents, and in many cases, offer visibility to the product.
Plastic containers have successfully challenged glass in numerous
products such as aspirin, mouth washes, vitamins, antacids, alcohol, nasal
sprays, and petroleum jelly. Most of the plastic containers are blow molded,
although an increasing number of polystyrene containers are produced by
injection and other molding methods.
Glass container shipments in 1972 amounted to 2.97 billion units,
a decline from the peak 1966 year when 3.42 billion were shipped. The
increasing penetration of plastic containers will cause a further decline
to 2.73 billion units by 1980. Glass containers are still favored for
cough syrup, milk of magnesia, selected vitamins and biologicals (Table A-26
and Figure A-14).
Plastic blow molded containers have grown.from a level of 142
million units in 1963,, to 1 billion in 1972. Most of this growth has
occurred since 1970, when numerous conversions were made to plastics.
Blow molded containers are projected to increase rapidly during the next
decade because of the trend to blow molding by the major drug firms. The
equipment for these containers is being installed and will be producing in
the near future. Demand for plastic containers is projected to grow 14.2
percent per year to 2.9 billion units by 1980.
It should be noted that the number of plastic containers is
larger than the above figures, which represent only blow molded containers
reported by the Department of Commerce. Numerous other plastics manu-
factured by other methods are competing for these markets. There are no
available statistics by end use of these containers, but, although significant
in terms of numbers, they are small in terms ofiresin consumption.
GENERAL PACKAGING
General packaging includes all other metal cans, aerosols and
metal containers not included in previous sections. These categories con-
s»ist of automotive and marine products such as oil, antifreeze, and aerosol
products; coatings and finishes, which are primarily consumer paints and
other coatings; and a wide variety of miscellaneous products.
288
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TABLE A-26
DRUG AND PHARMACEUTICAL CONTAINER SHIPMENTS. 1962 TO 1990
(In millions of containers)
Year
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990,
Glass
3,253
3,108
3,188
3,393
3,428
3,254
2,896
3,355
3,259
2,697
2,971
2,880
2,730
2,670
2,600
Plastic
142
143
265
299
327
337
401
742
892
,000
,500
2,900
3,800
5,000
1,
1,
Aerosol
38
28
35
37
41
40
46
49
43
50
60
75
90
100
Total
3,288
3,359
3,693
3,764
3,622
3,263
3,802
4,050
3,632
4,021
4,440
5,630
6,550
7,600
Growth Rate Glass
1963-1972 (0.5)
1972-1980 (1.0)
1980-1990 (0.5)
Plastic
24.2
14.2
5.6
Aerosol
3.1
5.2
3.2
Total
2.5
4.3
3.0
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging," 1962^1972.
MRI Estimates 1972-1990.
289
-------
10,000
9.000
8.000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4.000
3,000
.1 2,000
.E 1.000
| 900
800
700
600
u
500
400
300
200
100
i i i
i I i i
Total
Plastic
Glass
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure A-14 - Drug and Pharmaceutical Container Shipments, 1963-1990
-------
Automotive and Marine
An estimated 1.14 billion, containers were^used in 1972 for auto-
mobile and marine-oilsj antifreeze;," and aerosol automotive products such
as deicers, waxes and polishes (Table A-27).
The market for motor oil cans has changed significantly. Initially^
it was a standard tin plate container, but by 1960,aluminum cans began to
achieve a major penetration. However, by 1963 and 1964 the lower cost
composite fiber foil containers were introduced,and today are the major
container in this market. The demand for the steel metal can in 1972 is
about the same as 1964 when most of the conversion was complete.
About 20 million plastic containers are used for motor oil and
their demand has been constant since 1964.
We do not anticipate any growth for motor oil metal or plastic
containers, and 1980 demand will be similar to the 1972 demand.
Antifreeze has essentially been a metal can market until recently,
when the plastic container rapidly replaced, the can in numerous brands.
This has been particularly strong in retail stores, where over half of the
antifreeze is marketed. Metal can demand declined 25 percent in 1972 over
1971, to an estimated 85 million units, while plastic containers increased
to 70 million. This trend should continue as metal cans are continually
replaced. . '•.'• ' "•••••-".-'".
Aerosol automotive specialties amounted to 75 million units in
1972, and consist of windshield deicers, waxes, polishes and cleaners. - :
Growth will increase the number to 100 million units by 1975, and 150
million by 1980.
Coatings and Finishes
s
Containers for coatings and finishes include metal paint cans
and aerosol spray paint cans. These containers amounted to 901 million
units in 1972, an increase of 132 million units since 1962 (Table A-28).
The steel paint can in gallons, quarts and' pints has been the
industry accepted container for many years. Growth has been steady and
very little innovation has taken place. Plastic containers have been
recently introduced in the markets, but are still under evaluation. Various
systems are being tested to provide an easy-open lid that can be resealed.
291
-------
TABLE A-27
AUTOMOTIVE AND MARINE CONTAINER SHIPMENTS BY TYPE. 1962 TO 1980
Type of Container
Metal oil cans
Metal antifreeze cans
Plastic containers
Aerosol containers
Total
(In million
1962
1,576
138
20
. 20
1,754
unitsj
1972
875
85
100
75
1,135
1975
850
75
125
100
1,150
1980
850
50
150
150
1,200
Source: Can Manufacturers Institute, 1962-1972.
U.S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging," 1962-1972.
Midwest Research Institute estimates, 1972-1980.
TABLE A-28
METAL PAINT CAN SHIPMENTS BY TYPE. 1962-1980
Type of Container
Metal paint cans—
b/
Aerosol paints-
Total
(In million
1962
6,44
104
769
units)
1972
646
255
901
198$
700
400
1,100
a/ Can Manufacturers Institute, 1962-1972.
W U.S. Department of Commerce, "Containers and Packaging," 1962-1972,
c/ Midwest Research Institute.
292
-------
Aerosol paints have had a modest growth. These products arc
available in sizes ranging from 6 to 20 ounces. They are primarily used
for touch up and for applying clear protective coatings and varnishes.
Consumption should increase to 1.1 billion units by 1980, as
demand continues to increase. Beyond 1980, plastic containers will become
accepted and partially replace steel cans. However, total growth will in-
crease only modestly during this period.
Miscellaneous Metal Cans
Approximately 3.15 billion metal cans were used in 1972 for a
myriad of packaging uses. Medicinal and health products, household and
industrial chemicals, tobacco products, turpentine, shoe polish, and a
wide variety of consumer products are some examples. Demand for these
containers has been static during the past decade and is not expected to
grow in the future.
293
-------
APPENDIX B
TRENDS IN THE DEMAND FOR FERROUS SCRAP IN IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION
294
-------
Introduction
Scrap consumed in the production of raw steel has averaged
about 50 percent of total steel production .over the past 20 years. Scrap
produced in the steelmaking process ("home scrap"), however, provides the
main source of scrap, with the percentage of scrap purchased from outjide
markets declining. Increased demand for ferrous scrap created by increas-
ing steel production have been largely met by the proportionately larger
quantity of home scrap generated. Thus, outside purchases of old scrap
have remained at about the same level. Figure B-l shows generally how
the industry's scrap requirements are met.
The future role of scrap in steelmaking will be tied closely
to technological developments. The types of scrap used in iron and steel-
making vary considerably with the type of furnace used, operating practice,
scrap quality and price, the iron or steel product,' and past practice.
The proportion of the charge,consisting of scrap for the open hearth, basic
oxygen, and electric furnaces,is 40-45 percent, 30 percent, and 98 percent,
respectively, and has not changed significantly over the past 10 years.
The principal factors governing scrap usage are related to operating prac-
tices and the size, shape, bulk density,, and impurities present in the
scrap. Obsolescent scrap occurs in many physical and chemical conditions
and presents the greatest problems in scrap quality. Processing (shredding,
separation, compaction, etc.) is required to obtain usable forms of scrap.
Blast furnace: In typical blast furnace practice in the U.S.,
the scrap consumed is about 5 percent of the pig iron produced. Research
in this area could probably result in larger scrap charges.
i
Open-hearth (OH) steelmaking: Open-hearth steelmaking in the-U.S.
currently accounts for about 35 percent of the total steel production. An
intrinsic feature of the open-hearth furnace is its versatility in raw mate-
rials, permitting scrap usage in any amount from zero to nearly 100 percent;
typically, it has been about 45 percent. However, the higher efficiency
and production rate of the basic oxygen furnace has caused a steady decline
in open-hearth steelmaking .which is expected to continue.. For this reason,
scrap recycling in open-hearth furnaces will decline in the future.
Basic oxygen furnace (EOF) steelmaking: BOF steelmaking in the
U.S. currently accounts for about 50 percent of the total steel production.
The BOF process is less versatile than open-hearth steelmaking and is
limited by current industry practice and economics to scrap charges of about
30 percent. This is because no external fuels are used and heat is ob-
tained by the rapid, exothermic oxidation by oxygen blowing of carbon,
silicon, and manganese in the pig iron. The heat balance is the major
scrap'limitation, since only the excess heat over that required to bring
295
-------
Labor
Energy
Capital
Other
Raw
Materials
1
Primary
Metals
Metal
Shapes
Purchased
Scrap
Home
Scrap Market
Scrap
Fabrication
etal
Industrial
1
Scrap
Consumer
Discarded
Products
Obsolescent
Waste Scrap
Scrap
Mixed
Solid
Waste
Waste for
Disposal
Waste for Recovery
Resource
Recovery
System
Waste for
Reduction
Incinerator
Residue
Sanitary
Landfill
Waste for Disposal
Residue
Recovery
Figure B-l - Flow of Primary Metal and Scrap for Ferrous Metals
296
-------
the steel to the tapping temperature is used to melt the scrap. Scrap also
.tends to extend the charge-to-tap time and thereby reduces pr< duction rates.
Various schemes of preheating scrap or supplying external supplies of heat
have been,and continue to be,investigated in an effort to increase scrap
charges in the basic oxygen furnace.
'* Electric furnace steelmaking: The electric furnace currently
produces about 15 percent of the total U.S. steel production. This process
uses an average of 98 percent scrap in the charge. Potential increases in
productivity and reductions in the cost of electric furnace steel could re-.
suit from continuing research efforts in continuous charging of prereduced
iron ore, preheating of scrap, and higher power furnaces. An increase ,in
the production of electric-furnace steel would increase scrap usage.
Q-BOP steelmaking: 1973 marks the second year of commercial use
of the bottom oxygen blowing process (called Q-BOP by United States Steel
Corporation) of steelmaking. Current existing and scheduled worldwide
capacity is 17.3 million tons. The potential of the process is still
being debated in the industry, but it has been estimated that very rapid
growth potential exists for a worldwide capacity of over 400 million tons
of Q-BOP steel by 1980. The process is an improvement over the EOF in raw
materials versatility, and can accept maximum scrap charges in the range
45-60 percent. Success of the Q-BOP process could thus increase scrap
usage dramatically.
Nuclear-powered steelmaking: Another development having long-
range potential for ferrous scrap is nuclear-powered direct-reducuion steel-
making. The Engineering Research Association of Nuclear Steelmaking,
representing 13 Japanese companies and institutions, have announced plans
to construct a $26 million experimental steelmaking plant which will utilize
"I O /
nuclear energy by 1978. — The nuclear process is a direct-reduction pro-
cess and would eliminate the need for coking coal, blast furnaces, and
other conventional steelmaking equipment. Presumably, such a process
would result in an overall reduction in the energy required to make steel,
as well as, be able f-•> accept larger scrap charges.
Estimated scrap consumption: The estimated amount and source of
ferrous scrap consumed in the production of raw steel over the 1975-1990
period is summarized in Table B-l. The projections of purchased scrap
consumption are based on the s crap requirements and capabilities of the
various metallurgical processes expected to be in operation at various
points in time.
297
-------
TABLE B-l
ESTIMATED RAW STEEL PRODUCTION BY PROCESS. 1975-1990
(In millions of tons)
Open Basic Electric
Year Hearth Oxygen Furnace Total
1970 48 63 20 131
1972 35 75 24 134
1975 25 85 32 142
1980 17 102 36 155
1985 9 118 43 170
1990 7 130 48 185
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates.
In projecting scrap consumption over the 1975-1990 period, the
following methodology was employed.
1. Total steel production was projected for the 1975-1990 period
by extrapolating production and consumption data from 1950 to 1970, and
incorporating published estimates.
2. The projected steel production was then broken down by years
among the three major production processes: open-hearth, basic oxygen,
and electric furnace.
3. Total scrap consumption was estimated by years, assuming
scrap input to be 45 percent of total open-hearth steel production, 33
percent for the basic oxygen process, rising to 36 percent by 1990, and
100 percent for electric furnaces.
4. The scrap produced internally ("home scrap") was estimated,
based on the continuation of historical trends established over the past
decade, which saw the scrap produced grow from 33.5 percent in 1960 to
1970"s 35.3 percent level. This proportion is expected to be at 35.5 per-
cent in 1980 and to 36.0 percent by 1990, reflecting more in-plant custom
fabrication.
/
5. The demand for purchased scrap was calculated as the difference
between total scrap requirements (from Step 3) and internally-produced scrap
(step 4). The results are summarized in Table B-2.
298
-------
-TABLE B-2
FERROUS SCRAP DEMAND IN RAW STEEL PRODUCTION. 1960 TO 1990
(In millions of tons)
Total Raw Steel
Home Scrap
Produced
Year
1960
1965
1970
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source :
Production
99.3
131.5
131.5
133.1
142.0
155.0
169.0
184.0
Quantity
33.3
46.7
46.4
47.3
49.7
55.0
60.5
66.2
Percent
33.5
35.5
35.3
35.5
35.0
35.5
35.8
36.0
Annual Statistical Report, Americai
Total U.S.'A.
Scrap Demand
Purchased Scrap
Quantity Percent Quantity Percent
18.8
23.1
22.9
22.8
22.1
23.4
27.9
31.8
19.0
17.6
17.4
17.2
15.6
15.1
16.5
17.3
52.1
69.8
69.3
70.1
71.8
78.4
88.4
98.0
52.5
53.1
52.7
52.7
50.6
50.6
52.3
53.3
by Midwest Research Institute.
As shown in Table B-2, the domestic market for purchased scrap
will decline to 22.1 million tons in 1975, then begin to rise again and
will be at 31.8 million tons by 1990. These projections are based on the
technical requirements (ratios) of the three principal steelmaking processes
and production forecasts. The remainder of ferrous scrap demand comes from
two sources: foundries and exports.
Foundry requirements are 100 percent scrap5but total demand .for
foundry products has not risen significantly for some time. However, cer-
tain "low spec" foundry products could accept low-grade steel scrap from
municipal waste which would free higher grades for steel furnaces. Despite
this potentital, we s-2 very little movement this way; the steel industry
will absorb most of the ferrous metal recovered from municipal waste.
Export tonnage has ranged between 7 and 11 million tons annually>
which is a large percentage of purchased scrap demand for domestic uses.
(In fact, strong export demand and some decline in prompt steel scrap pro-
duction from auto plants in 1973 led to skyrocketing prices for steel scrap.)
Based on the trends, export demand will rise to 16 million tons by 1990
(but it is highly volatile and could go higher or lower). Nonetheless,
with worldwide demand for steel rising, we can only conclude that exports
of scrap will rise and domestic demand will rise too.
299
-------
The principal conclusion from our analysis of steel scrap demand
1 trends in steel furnaces in this section is that the relatively modest re-
covery of ferrous scrap from municipal waste we have forecast can be readily
absorbed into the principal ferrous metal cycle--steel furnaces. Exports,
copper precipitation, and foundries are also potential outlets for recovered
scrap and we see no demand limitation for any scrap recovery from municipal
waste--appliance metal or mixed ferrous fractions with a high metal can
content.
300
-------
APPENDIX C
AN OVERVIEW OF ALUMINUM INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND
SCRAP USAGE CHARACTERISTICS, 1960 to 1990
301
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ALUMINUM INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS
Introduction
The aluminum industry is made up of (1) integrated primary pro-
ducers and fabricators who convert bauxite into fabricated aluminum products;
(2) nonintegrated aluminum producers who rely on scrap and primary and sec-
ondary aluminum ingot purchased on the open market; and (3) secondary smelters
who convert scrap aluminum into secondary ingot.
The chief users of aluminum scrap are secondary smelters who use
approximately 67 percent of the total scrap}followed by integrated producers
(19 percent) and other producers who use 14 percent. Integrated producers
generally obtain the scrap they consume from internal sources and customer
scrap; smelters and nonintegrated producers buy scrap. Nearly 90 percent
of secondary ingot produced by secondary smelters is consumed by noninte-
grated foundries.—
The aluminum industry reports scrap consumption in terms of "new
scrap," "old scrap" and "sweated pig." New scrap comes in roughly three
forms: borings and turnings, clippings, and slag from aluminum fabrication
and converting plants. Borings and clippings result from machining operations,
while clippings and slag are by-products of various melting operations that
are part of the smelting and refining processes.
Old scrap, by comparison, is obtained from obsolete products that
contain aluminum and is recovered by aluminum scrap dealers. Most of this
type of scrap is still not, however, recovered from municipal waste streams.
In almost all cases, this type of scrap is recovered from objects that are
easily recoverable such as obsolete airplanes, boats, building products, and
other sources. However, scrap dealers do not recover aluminum cans in signifi-
cant quantity, although consumer collection centers for aluminum cans are common,
Sweated pig is a somewhat different category. This is the aluminum
that is separated from iron and steel when mixed scrap is heated in ovens in
which the aluminum is "sweated" from the higher melting temperature ferrous
metal.
Aluminum Supply and Demand Trends
Production and consumption of aluminum increased at a high growth
rate in the past. In 1961, less than 2 million tons of primary metal were
302
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produced and slightly over 2.3 million .tons were consumed. In 1970, by com-
parison, almost 4 million tons of primary aluminum were produced and more
than 5 million tons were consumed.*
The aluminum industry is now successfully marketing a broader range
of products made of aluminum, and it is expected that there will be a growing
demand for aluminum in the years to come.
The automobile industry, in order to produce lighter, more effi-
cient cars is turning to aluminum engines, bumpers and bumper hinges to
make a lighter automobile. The Vega now has an aluminum engine block and
aluminum bumper system, and other automobile manufacturers are evaluating
the benefits that a lightweight engine would afford. If auto makers con-
tinue turning toward aluminum engine blocks and other lightweight parts,
it would result in a large demand increase in the aluminum industry.
Other industries are also utilizing aluminum for its lightweight
and strength characteristics for applications that have advantages in a
variety of products. Construction and packaging products are designed with
aluminum where a lightweight metal is needed.
Since most sectors of the aluminum industry have an optimistic
demand outlook, the possibility that reserves of aluminum ore will be de-
pleted was considered to see what effect they would have on MRI's basic
demand forecasts.
'A report on solid waste and litter prepared by the Warton
School of Finance and Commerce of the University of Pennsylvania gives the
following dates at which it is expected that known world reserves of alum-
inum ore will be depleted: *
The year 2125 - Assuming the 1965 rate of consumption, no allow-
ance for increased population; reserves of ore
are limited to mineable grades; no submerged
bodies of ore are found.
The year 2030 - Assuming a 2.5 percent, per year increase over
the 1965 rate of consumption; no allowance for
increased population; reserves of ore are limited
: to current mineable grades; no submerged bodies of
ore are found.
* Source: Aluminum Statistical Review. 1972.
303
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The Whartori School report also stated the following:
"Prospects for the supply of aluminum are excellent
to at least the year 2000. On the other hand, domestic
reserves of aluminum are not adequate to meet the pro-
jected demand. Thus, it must be expected that the alumi-
num produced in the U.S. will represent an ever smaller
percentage of total U.S. consumption, increasing our de-
pendence on overseas suppliers."
Taking these facts into consideration, we estimate that the alum-
inum industry's growth rate in the U.S. will slow in the 1972 to 1990 period,
compared to the 1960 to 1972 levels. This is not to say that there will be
no growth in the industry, but instead there will be a leveling off of
primary metal demand accompanied by a significant increase in the use of
secondary aluminum.
i
The basis of our demand forecasts are: (1) a predicted continued
gain in GNP; (2) the stepped-up use of aluminum by the automobile industry,
and the construction industry; (3) the growing use of mobile homes; and
(4) a continued growth of the use of aluminum in packaging. MRI estimates
that future primary aluminum production will increase at a rate between 4
and 5 percent per year over the 1972 to 1990 period.
This means that from the base of 4.1 million tons of primary alumi-
num produced in 1972, primary aluminum production will grow to 9.1 million
tons by 1990 (Table C-l and Figure C-l).
The same growth rate will also apply to total U.S. demand which
is forecast to increase from 5.7 million tons in 1972, to 12.1 million
tons by 1990 (Table C-l and Figure C-l). Some detail of these forecasts
follow.
Aluminum Scrap Use
The trends in scrap use for the industry are summarized in Table
C-2. Here it can be seen that as an industry the recovery of "new scrap,"
i.e., fabrication scrap,is by far the most important. Next in importance
is the recovery of obsolete scrap ("old scrap") by secondary materials dealers
who accounted for 255,000 tons of old scrap recovery in 1972; this will
rise to 800,000 tons in 1990. At the same time, new scrap recovery will
rise from 873,000 tons in 1972 to 2.0 millions tons in 1990.
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TABLE C-l
PRIMARY ALUMINUM PRODUCTION SCRAP RECOVERY AND
. U.S. CONSUMPTION. 1960 to 1990
(In thousand tons)
Year Primary Production
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
2,014.5
1,903.7
2,117.9
2,312.5
2,552.7
2,754.5
2,968.3
3,269.2
3,255.0
3,793.0
3,976.1
3,925.2
4,122.4
4,900.0
6,000.0
7,500.0
9,100.0
Net Imports
-112.3
90.7
168.5
227.6
159.8
313.2
359.9
186.9
432.5
30.9
-132.0
358.8
474.2
V
y
b/
b/
Aluminum
Scra^
Recovery
438.0
485.0
582.0
654.0
707.0
829.0
887.0
878.0
997.0
1,150.0
1,000.0
1,050.0
1,173.1
1,401.0
2,005.0
2,630.0
3,300.0
Consumption
2,152.6
2,385.7
2,900.0
3,243.8
3,482.6
2,989.8
4,562.3
4,169.0
4,738.3
5,109.0
4,600.0
5,074.0
5,775.8
6,301.0
8,005.0
10,130.0
12,400.0
&l Note: Figures may not equal total due to adjustments in government
stockpiles and in industry inventories.
_b/ Not Forecast
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce Business and Defense Service
Administration.. Containers and•Packaging, 20(1):9 April 1967.
Modern Packaging. Encyclopedia, William C. Simms, ed., Vol. 40,
No. 13A New York, McGrawHill, Inc., September 1967, 879 p.
The Aluminum Association Aluminum Statistical Review - 1972
New York, July 1973. Forecasts by Midwest Research Institute.
305
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10,000,000
1,000,000
Consumption __ — *1
Production
-J 1 1 1 1 I l i i i i i
-I 1 J I I I i i i i
I960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
!990
Figure C-l - Primary Aluminum Production and U.S. Consumption
-------
TABLE C-2
ALUMINUM INDUSTRY SCRAP RECOVERY AND SCRAP CONSUMPTION. 1960-1990
(jj
o
••J
Year
1960
1965
1970
1972
1975
1980
1985
1990
Total
Metal
Recovery
From Scrap
438
829
1,000
1,155
1,401
2,005
2,630
3,300
(In thousand tons)
From
New Scrap
343
624
803
873
1 , 000
1,400
1,700
2,000
From
Old Scrap
95
205
193
255
350
500
650
790
From
Municipal
Waste
__
4
27
51
105
280
510
Scrap ,
Consumption ~"
523
970
1', 167;
1,260
1,500
2,110
2,735
3,515
a/ Includes aluminum scrap before recovery of .the net metallic content of aluminum, which upon reduction
is scrap recovery in Table B-l.
Source: Aluminum Association Annual Statistical Review - 1972; Reynolds Metals Company; Forecasts by
MRI.
-------
The principal significance of the recovery of aluminum from
municipal waste is that it is the integrated primary metals producers who
purchase and consume this metal (as opposed to secondary smelters and
foundries). Beverage cans> for example,recycle directly back into can sheet.
As recovery of aluminum from municipal waste increases, the primary metals
makers are likely to continue to utilize essentially all of this source.
In a sense then, a completely new secondary metals market is springing up--
one that is being sought by traditional scrap metals dealers^but which
produces alloy metal favorable for use by primary smelters.
308
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APPENDIX D
ANALYSIS OF PACKAGING PLASTIC RESIN DEMAND BY END USE
309
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INTRODUCTION
There are five major end use categories in plastics packaging--
film, blow molded containers, coatings, closures and caps, and miscellane-
ous packaging. Film and miscellaneous packaging constitute the highest
quantity end uses in terms of tonnage. Film accounted for 1.4 million tons
or 48 percent of total packaging resin in 1972; miscellaneous packaging
(thermoformed and injection molded packages) for 0.64 million ton or 21.6
of total packaging resins in 1972. Blow molded containers were in third
place in 1972 at 0.46 million ton,followed by coatings at 0.35 million ton.
In the sections that follow, an analysis of trends in each end
use area is made.
BLOW MOLDED CONTAINERS
End Uses for Blow Molded Containers
Plastics are a relatively new material for the production of con-
tainers. Their light weight, safety, des-ign versatility and attractive
appearance generated a market demand for an estimated 6.73 billion containers
in 1972 and demand for 458,000 tons of plastic resin.
Blow molded containers have been replacing glass containers for
packaging household chemicals, toiletries and cosmetics and medicinal and
health products. They have just begun to penetrate the food industry and
are being test marketed for soft drinks.
The household chemical market is saturated, and little growth is
projected. Medicinal, health, toiletry and cosmetic markets are growing
rapidly as many firms install "in-house" blow molding equipment. Food
markets will develop slowly because of the severe processing requirements
for packaging food products. The soft drink container manufactured from
barrier resins will begin to reach significant commercial volume by 1980,
and grow rapidly to 5.0 billion containers by 1990, assuming that "restric-
tive" federal legislation does not inhibit the entry of plastics into bev-
erage containers. Resin demand for containers is projected to increase at
9.1 percent per year, reaching a consumption of 920,000 tons by 1980.
Initially introduced as a "squeeze bottle" for spray deodorants
and nasal sprays in 1947, plastic containers did not achieve a significant
market penetration until the acceptance of the blow molded polyethylene
bottle for bleach during the late 1950" s. Growth increased steadily to 1.0
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billion containers in 1960,as plastic bottles became accepted for packaging
liquid detergents, abrasive cleaners and other cleaning compounds. The de-
velopment of the clear plastic bottle in 1965, and blow molding equipment for
"in house" molding, added to the growth of plastics. Toiletries, cosmetics,
medicinal and health products, and milk markets all developed rapidly during
the past decade to reach the current level (Table D-l).
TABLE D-l
PLASTIC BLOW MOLDED CONTAINERS
(In million units)
Quantity-No Units
End Use 1963^ 1972-/
Household Chemicals 1,351 2,600
Industrial Chemicals 38 250
Toiletries and Cosmetics 416 1,380
Medicinal and Health 142 1,000
Food 22 300
Milk .-- 800
Beverage -- 300
All Other 20 ' 100
Total 1,989 6,730
a/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Domestic Commerce, "Containers
and Packaging," Volume 25, No. 3, {October 1972), p. 18.
b_/ Midwest Research Institute estimates.
Household and industrial containers: Approximately 2.85 billion
plastic containers were used in 1972 to package household and industrial chem-
icals and specialties. This market now accounts for 41.5 percent of all
plastic containers. Nearly all liquid detergents, bleach, ammonia, and
powdered cleaners are packaged in plastic containers. Fabric softeners,
starch and floor waxes are packaged in both plastic containers and aerosol
metal cans.
Although demand has doubled since 1963, the rate of growth has
been slowing since most of the^conversions from glass containers have been
completed. Selected insecticides and scouring powder conversions to plastic
will generate a growth rate of 3.5 percent per year to a level of 3.15 bil-
lion containers in 1975. Beyond 1975, growth will slow to a rate of 2 per-
cent per year reaching a level of 3.45 billion units by 1980.
311
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Plastic .containers are- also used "for agricultural, industrial and
institutional chemicals arid cleaning products. Many of these arc larger
containers that are reused in industrial and institutional chemical lab-
oratories . , -
Toiletries and cosmetics: Toiletries and cosmetic products were
packaged in 1.48 billion plastic containers in 1972. Plastic containers
offer light weight and resistance to breakage. Since package design is
very important in creating an image of the product, the flexibility of de-
signing the container in unique shapes available in clear or colored con-
tainers has helped establish plastics in consumer markets. Hair shampoos
and colors, lotions, powders, suntan oil, creams and baby oils are packaged
in plastic containers.
The growth was quite rapid during the past decade,increasing from
416 million units in 1963 to 1.40 billion in 1969. Growth has been erratic
since then, declining to 1.12 billion in 1970 before increasing to 1.38
billion in 1972.
Plastic containers have achieved much of their recent growth at
the expense of glass containers. Many firms are indtalling their own equip-
ment to blow mold containers and growth is projected at 15.2 percent per
year to 1975, and 10 percent per year from 1975 to 1980. Beyond 1980, growth
will slow to 5 percent per year as the market becomes saturated. Demand
will reach 2.1 billion units in 1975 and 3.5 billion in 1980.
Medicinal and health: Medicinal and health products are being
converted to plastics packages from glass at a slower rate than household
and toiletry products. A wide variety of products such as aspirin, mouth
washes, vitamins, antacids, alcohol, nasal sprays, and cremes are. packaged
in plastics. The impermeability of glass is still a benefit in many pro-
ducts and it is still the dominant packaging material.
Plastic containers increased from 142 million in 1963 to 1.0 bil-
lion in 1972,and should increase at 14.2 percent per year to 2.9 billion
by 1980,as more drug firms install molding equipment to manufacture their
own containers. . ...
Food and Beverage: Food and beverages represent the largest
potential market for plastic containers since over 130 billion containers
are used each year in these markets. Food products alone represent a
potential for 44 billion plastic containers a year.
Plastics have.-made a small penetration in the food industry with
300 million containers used in 1972 to package, syrup, liquid margarine,
vegetable oils, mustard, mayonnaise, and vinegar. The development of the.
312
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new nitrile barrier resins should begin to open new markets for plastics in
uses where moisture and oxygen transmission problems have prevented existing
plastics from being accepted.
Demand will increase gradually to 500 million units in 1975,and
750 million by 1980. As the new barrier resins become accepted bfyond 1980,
demand will increase to .1.5 billion by 1990.
t,
One of the fastest growing markets has been the containers used
for packaging fluid milk. Initially introduced prior to 1963, demand
rapidly increased to 800 million units, equivalent to 15 percent of the
current milk packaging market. This growth was promoted through the con-
tinuing reduction of prices of polyethylene resins and the installation of
blow molding equipment in the dairy plant. This has caused a rapid decline
in the use of the glass container. Demand is projected to increase rapidly
to 2.2 billion containers in 1980,as plastics almost completely replace glass,
and also make large inroads into paper containers. .
The largest potential use for plastic containers is to package
part of the 86.5 billion units of beer and soft drink .sold in containers.
Plastic resin producers have been working to develop a resin for this market
that would be clear, nearly impermeable to moisture, oxygen, and carbon
dioxide transmission and still be economical and have the necessary strength
when molded into a soft drink container. The nitrile "barrier" resins,
which are under development and have been test marketed in soft drinks,show
the greatest promise of penetrating this market. They should be fully
developed and commercial by the end of the decade. Demand for plastic
beverage containers will increase to 600 million by 1975, and 1.0 billion
by 1980. As the barrier resins become commercial, plastic beverage con-
tainer demand will increase rapidly to 5.0 billion by 1990.
Currently, about 300 million units are used to package a variety
of juices and noncarbonated beverages. These are primarily polyethylene
containers.
Miscellaneous containers: Other uses for plastic containers in-
clude automotive products such as antifreeze, deicers and lubricants. De-
mand was 100 million units in 1972, and should increase slowly to 150 million
by 1980. .
Plastic container use will continue to grow rapidly--from 6.73
billion units in 1972 to 9.2 billion units in 1975; 14.0 billion in 1980,
and 24.6 billion in 1990 (Table D-2).
313
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TABLE D-2
DEMAND FOR BLOW MOLDED PLASTIC CONTAINERS BY END USE, 1972 TO 1990
End Use Category
Household Chemicals
Industrial Chemicals
Toiletries and Cosmetics
Medicinal and Health
Food
Milk
Beverage
All Other
(In million
1972
2,600
250
1,380
1,000
300
800
300
100
units)
1975
2,850
300
2,100
1,500
500
1,200
600
120
1980
3,100
350
3,500
2,900
750
2,200
1,000
150
1990
3,700
450
5,700
5,000
1,500
3,000
5,000
200
Total 6,730 9,170 13,950 24,550
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce BDSA; "Containers and Packaging,"
1972. Midwest Research Institute Forecasts.
Resin Consumption for Blow Molded Containers
The blow molded container was originally developed from low den-
sity polyethylene which is soft and flexible. However, the rigidity and
stiffness of high density polyethylene,along with its low cost,made it the
choice for over 80 percent of the plastic containers manufactured in 1972.
Low density polyethylene has been in limited use in the drug, cosmetic
and food markets where a flexible container is desired. The bellows type
container for dessert topping is an example.
Although polyethylene was rapidly accepted for household chemicals.
toiletries and cosmetics and some medicinal and health products, it has not
penetrated the food markets because of its lack of clarity and poor resist-
ance to gas and water vapor transmission.
The clear PVC bottle was developed in 1965 for use in products
where clarity was desired. They also had resistance to oil and oxygen
and good rigidity. Numerous nonfood uses developed and although projections
for rapid penetration of the food market were common, its COSL limited its
use. PVC received another setback recently when the FDA challenged its use
for liquor containers, after laboratory tests revealed residues in the
packaged liquor.
Polypropylene resins have the greatest potential use for packaging
various food products. It is competitive with PVC where clarity is desired
314
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and can be filled at temperatures up to 190°F. Polypropylene will have a
higher unit yield per pound of resin because of il:s low density and will.
cost less than PVC. Current demand is about 15 million pounds of resin
and increasing rapidly. It is being used to package syrup and sugar based
refrigerated fruit drinks.
Other resins used for blow molding include polystyrene, nitrile,
and XT acrylics. Polystyrene has clarity and can be injection molded into
decorative containers for nonhygroscopic powders and solids. The XT acrylics
have clarity, excellent oil resistance, and can be hot filled. These are multi-
polymers that also have good oxygen barrier properties. The nitrile resins
are a recent development and have excellent barrier resistance to oxygen,
carbon dioxide and moisture transmission. Its clarity and the above proper-
ties have made it a leading contender for soft drink markets.
High density polyethylene will continue to be the preferred resin
for most containers where clarity, strength, and barrier properties are not
required. PVC is not expected to grow because of its higher cost and prob-
lems in the food industry. Polypropylene will increase its penetration in
the food area because it offers clarity and can be filled at higher tempera-
tures. The greatest growth will occur to the resin which is developed for
the soft drink container. The current nitrile resins are the leading con-
tenders ,but newer composites may be developed that will be competitive with
the nitriles.
The demand for all plastic resins used in blow molded containers
increased from 97,000 tons, in 1963 to 459,000 tons in 1972. Demand will
nearly double to 920,000 tons in 1980, and to 1,620,000 tons in 1990 (Table
D-3). . -
TABLE D-3
RESIN CONSUMPTION IN BLOW MOLDED CONTAINERS
(In thousand tons)
Type of resin 1963 1972 1975 1980 1990
Polyethylene HD 87 385 520 783 1,195
Polyethylene LD 10 23 30 50 100
Polyvinyl Chloride 1 35 35 35 35
All Other . ^ 15 25 52 290
Total 97 458 610 920 1,620
Source: Midwest Research Institute estimates based on literature and indus-
try sources.
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FLEXIBLE PACKAGING. FILM. CONVERTED WRAPS AND BAGS
End Uses for Flexible Plastic Packaging
Flexible plastics account for the greatest volume of resins u';ed
in packaging. These items are manufactured from plastic film and sheet
into numerous forms of protective packaging wraps, pouches and bags..
Converted wraps: Wraps are formed by machine around a product
from a roll of flexible plastic. The wraps may cover the product alone,such
as a bread wrap, or may be an overwrap which covers folding cartons for deco-
rative or promotional purposes. It may also be used to bundle a group of
packages such as multipack soft drinks, or as a shrink palletizing wrap
for industrial uses.
Preformed Bags: Preformed bags are manufactured in a variety of
shapes. Some common uses are boil-in-bag pouches for frozen vegetables,
bread, paper goods, toys, housewares, hosiery, candy, fresh meats and snack
food. Most preformed plastic bags have welded sides and may have a bottom
seam or gusset; they can be made with or without a lip.
Film: Most of the plastic film is used to manufacture bags and
wraps for food and consumer products. Food packaging accounts for 25 per-
cent of the film where it is used to package and wrap meat, produce and
baked goods. This end use is growing at 7 percent per year and will con-
tinue at this rate through 1980.
Nonfood items packaged in plastic film include garment bags, in-
dustrial liners and bags, soft goods, shrink pallet wrap and trash bags.
Trash bags are now the biggest single use for film,and have grown from an
introductory product 5 years ago to a market demand of 250,000 tons per
year of resin. This end use will continue to grow,although not as rapidly
as in the past. Some cities and private waste haulers have "institutionalized"
demand for garbage sacks by requiring their use for pickup from households.
One possible new growth market for plastic film is the poly-
ethylene grocery sack, which is being test marketed against the kraft paper
sack. A moderate growth is projected, although some sources feel it will
grow rapidly. Other industry experts feel it has no significant future in
competition with paper sacks and will never gain popularity with consumers.
Flexible films and bags manufactured from plastics compete with
paper and aluminum. In many cases,combinations of these materials are
used in the form of laminates. The plastic materials have been increasing
their share of this market and are now the largest volume of the three.
316
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Sales of these products for 1960 and 1972 indicate the rate at which plastics
have increased their share of the market (Table D-4).
TABLE D-4
DEMAND FOR FLEXIBLE PACKAGING MATERIALS IN PACKAGING. 1960 AND 1972
(In millions of dollars)
1960 1972
Packaging Category Amount Percent Amount Percent
Paper $352 42.3 $492 27.9
Cellophane 277 33.3 250 14.2
Polyethylene , 140 16.8 770 43.7
Other Plastics , 170 9.6
Metal Foil 63 7.6 82 4.6
Total $832 100.0 $1,764 100.0
Source: Modern Plastics Encylcopedia, 1972.
Plastic materials have increased their share of this market from
16.8 percent in 1960 to 54.6 percent in 1972. They have essentially cap-
tured most of the growth in flexible packaging materials.
Resin consumption for flexible packaging uses: It is estimated
that 1.4 million tons of plastics and cellophane were used in 1972 for
flexible packaging. The largest single resin in use is low density poly-
ethylene, because it is the lowest cost transparent packaging material,
has outstanding chemical and barrier properties, and in many applications
can compete with paper economically. It is estimated that 1.1 million
tons of LD polyethylene were used for packaging in 1972. Other films in-
clude cellophane, polyvinyl chloride and polypropylene (Table D-5).
317
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TABLE D-5
FLEXIBLE PACKAGING RESIN DEMAND BY TYPE. 1968 TO 1980
(In thousand tons)
Type of Resin
Polyethylene LD
Polyethylene HD
Cellophane
Polyvinyl Chloride
Polypropylene
Others
Total
1968
792
1972
1,067
24
163
67
50
45
1,416
1975
1,800
1980
1,870
75
125
150
125
110
2,555
Source: Modern Plastics. 1968-1972; MRI estimates, 1975-1980.
The demand for all films has nearly doubled since 1968, and a
significant amount of the growth has come from the polyethylene trash bag.
Other film uses such as pallet wrap, garment bags, and rack and counter
films have also grown rapidly.
Flexible films are projected to increase at 7.5 percent per year
from 1.4 million tons in 1972 to 2.6 million tons by 1980, as trash bags,
grocery bags and pallet wrap markets continue to develop (Table D-5).
Low Density Polyethylene
As indicated in Table D-5, low density polyethylene is the most
popular resin used for packaging wraps and bags. It is commonly used to
wrap produce, meat, poultry and baked goods. It also finds application
as bags for dry cleaned garments, industrial bags and liners, household
wrap, pallet wrap and trash bags. Estimated LD polyethylene resin consump-
tion by end use is also given (Table D-6).
Demand for LD polyethylene is expected to continue to increase
at 8 percent per year to reach 1.9 million tons by 1980. The greatest
growth will be in shrink packaging primarily for industrial pallet wrap and
consumer beverages. Food uses will continue to grow as new applications
are developed and cellophane is replaced.
High density polyethylene: High density polyethylene has had only
limited use as a packaging film. About 24,000 tons of HD polyethylene were
318
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consumed in 1972, primarily for packaging snack foods and for wraps to
•cover carpets during their shipment from the mills.
TABLE D-6
LOW DENSITY POLYETHYLENE CONSUMPTION IN FILM APPLICATIONS. 1968 - 1980
(In thousand tons)
Market Category
Food
Baked Goods
Candy
Frozen Food
Meat and Poultry
Produce
Miscellaneous Food
Total Food:
Nonfood and Bags
Garment Bags
Industrial Liners and Bags
Rack and Counter
Soft Goods
Household Wrap and Bags
Shrink Pallet Wrap
Trash Bags
Miscellaneous Packaging
Total Nonfood
Total LDPE
1968
63
7
15
15
85
30
215
37
55
25
35
40
--
--
70
262
477
1972
100
15
23
19
113
30
300
60
57
66
59
30
55
250
190
767
1,067
1975
135
20
35
25
130
37
382
70
60
80
80
30
75
350
235
980
1,362
1980
180
30
50
35
170
55
520
80
70
100
100
30
175
450
345
1,350
1,870
Source: Modern Plastics. 1968-1972; MRI estimates, 1975-1980.
The future growth for HDPE will depend upon the rate of replace-
ment of paper for grocery bags. Currently, it is limited to specialty paper
markets such as nontarnish and lint-free tissue paper, florist wrap, deli-
catessen wrap and other selected wax paper markets.
319
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Perhaps the most promising new.endure for HDPE is the grocery
bag. Although problems exist in fabricating polyethylene in existing
9 7 /
equipment, at least 250 million bags per year are being used by IGA Foods.—
If 20 percent of this market were to convert to HDPE, it could mean an ad-4
ditional 90,000 tons of resin per year. Its success will depend upon the
future costs of paper relative to HDPE. Presently, paper is still the lowest
cost product. HDPE should continue to slowly penetrate this market.reach-
ing a level of 75,000 tons by 1980.
Polyvinyl chloride: PVC packaging films are estimated at 67,000
tons per year. Its most popular market is wrapping for fresh meats and
produce. PVC is increasingly being used as a shrink film for carton wraps
where good visibility,combined with strength, are desired.
PVC has been widely accepted for meat packaging because it is
soft, resiliant and nonfogging. It also permits oxygen transmission which
maintains the color of the meat to make it more appealing to customers.
PVC is expected to continue its growth .reaching 100,000 tons by 1975,nnd
150,000 cons by 1980. However, FDA officials have expressed concern about
potential migration of chemical compounds into meat and the use of PVC
could be restricted for meat packaging.
Polypropylene: Polypropylene film amounted to 50,000 tons of
resin in 1972, primarily in food packaging.
Polypropylene film competes with polyethylene or cellophane.depend-
ing upon the manufacturing process. The cast film competes with polyethylene,
while the oriented film competes with cellophane. Most of the current markets
are for the oriented film where it is most often used as a lamination with
cellophane, glassine, polyethylene, paper or aluminum foil.
Much of the growth in use of polypropylene film will come at the
expense of cellophane and paper. The tobacco industry, which represents
about 22,000 tons of cellophane,is expected to be completely converted to
polypropylene by 1978. Other potential developing markets include baked
goods, candy and meats.
The future for polypropylene looks bright as its relative cost to
polyethylene begins to narrow. Estimates of demand as high as 420,000 tons
by 1980 have been projected; and if this demand develops, most of the
volume would be at the expense of polyethylene. MRI estimates 224,000 tons
use by 1980 as a realistic forecast for polypropylene.
Other resins: Other resins include polystyrene, nylon, polyvinyl-
dene chloride, and coextrusions. Of all of these the latter is showing the
greatest growth. This is a new technology where two or more different films
320
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are extruded together to form a composite film. These films combine the
attractive properties of both resins to solve specific packaging problems.
An example is the use of coextruded LD and HD polyethylene for snack foods.
Demand for these resins amounted to 45,000 tons in 1972,and should increase
to 110,000 tons by 1980.
Cellophane is the second largest volume packaging film next Co,
ulow density polyethylene. Demand has been declining as the polyolefins
have replaced it in many food markets. Consumption in 1966 of 197,000 tons
has declined to 160,000 tons in 1972,and will continue to drop to 125,000
tons by 1980.
Most of the decline in the use of cellopuau has been in leaked
goods and meat where the plastic films have made their greatest penetration.
Cigarette film has declined slightly and will decline further as polypro-
pylene replace it (Table D-7).
TABLE D-7.
CELLOPHANE DEMAND BY END USE, 1966 - 1980
(In thousand tons)
End Use 1966 1972 1975 1980
Baked Goods 39 24 20 15
Meat 30 7 55
Tobacco 30 26 15 0
Snacks and Cookies 30 41 45 45
Candy 15 16 15 15
Other Foods 33 30 30 30
Nonfoods 20 16 _15 15
197 160 145 125
Source: Modern Packaging Encyclopedia .(1966 and 1972), Midwest Research
Institute (1975 and 1980).
Cellophane will continue to be used in numerous applications.
It is now nearly all coated or laminated for moisture proofness and heat
sealing. Saran-copolymer coated cellophane is used for cigarettes,and
laminations have been developed for cookies and other foods.
321
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MISCELLANEOUS PLASTICS-PACKAGING
A wide variety of miscellaneous packaging and disposable items
are manufactured from plastic resins and sheet by thermoforming and injec-
tion molding. Products such as disposable cups and tumblers; collapsible.
tubes; molded boxes to package cosmetics, jewelry and hardware; meat trays;
egg cartons; jars and tubs for food products; foamed shipping pads; pallets
and beverage cartons; and blister packaging are included in this category.
These uses accounted for 641,000 tons of resins in 1972,with poly-
styrene accounting for 55 percent of the total (Table D-8).
TABLE D-8
THERMOFORMED AND INJECTION MOLDED PLASTICS
DEMAND BY RESIN TYPE, 1968 TO 1980
(In thousand tons)
Type of Resin 1968 1972 1975 1980
Polystyrene 250 370 470
Polyethylene HD f 110 145
Polyethylene LD I 72 95
Polyvinyl Chloride ] 40 50
Polypropylene (_ 36 50
Cellulose 8 13 15
Total 315 641 825 1,348
Source: Modern Plastics. 1968-1972; MRI estimates, 1975-1980
Growth of these products has been quite rapid in the past few
years, with resin consumption more than doubling since 1968. The growth
is projected to increase at 9.2 percent per year through 1980^0 1.3 million
tons because of the continued growth of existing markets and the develop-
ment of new uses.
Polystyrene: Polystyrene is the 1,-irgest volume resin used :n
miscellaneous packaging since it is available in a wide range of properties.
The two major types of polystyrene used in packaging are general
purpose or crystal resins and impact resins. General purpose polystyrene
322
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la transparent, has a good surface gloss and optical clarity, but is brittle.
Impact polystyrene is a rubber modified polymer with good energy absorption
properties.
These resins are injection molded into boxes, trays, tubs, cups,
lids and vials,or extruded into sheet and thermofortned into meat trays,
thin walled opaque containers and single service dinnerware.
Polystyrene is also available as an expandable foam which is
manufactured by heating polymer beads with a blowing agent to produce
cellular beads,which have excellent heat resistance. The beads are molded
into cups, boxes, trays and packaging inserts,or are formed into boards
which are cut or stamped into trays and other packaging forms. It is also
made into a. foamed sheet and thermoformed into meat trays, egg cartons and
other food packages. It is estimated the 180,000 tons of foamed poly-
styrene were used in packaging in 1972.
Polystyrene has been growing at 10.3 percent per year since 1968,
and should reach a volume of 788,000 tons by 1980. This is equivalent to
a growth of 6.7 percent per year. Demand for single service dinnerware
will account for much of this growth.
Polyethylene: Polyethylene is the next largest resin with 110,000
tons of high density and 72,000 tons of low density being consumed in 1972.
Products include jars, tubs and boxes and squeeze tubes. Polyethylene
lacks the clarity of polystyrene,but is more resistant to chemical attack
and impact, has better barrier properties and stands up well at low tempera-
tures.
All of the low density polyethylene and about two-thirds of the
high density polyethylene is used to manufacture injection molded containers.
Major uses include beverage cases, pallets, snap-on reclosure lids for canned
foods and coffee, squeeze tubes, vials, and a wide variety of other containers
for foods and drugs.
About 30,000 tons per year of high density polyethylene is thermo-
formed into food containers, medical packages and blister packaging for
numerous consumer products.
'• The other resins used for miscellaneous plastics packaging
include polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene and cellulosic.s. PVC finds its
greatest use in blister packaging, where the sheet is formed on cardboard
or other backing to provide visibility for consumer products.
i
Polypropylene is used to manufacture drinking straws and hinged
•lid boxes where the hinge is an integral part of the container. Cellulosic.s
find their greatest use in fabrication of vials and in blister packages.
323
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PLASTIC COATINGS
Approximately 350,000 tons of resin were used in 1972 to coat
polymer films, paper, paperboard, foil and cellophane. These thin coat-
ings give the substrate moisture resistance, heat scalability, process-
ability and resistance to oil and grease penetration at a cost less than
other forms of packaging '.
',
Low density polyethylene dominates this market with 225,000 tons
consumed in 1972. It is one of the cheapest polymeric coatings that pro-
vides the desired properties. LD polyethylene is used extensively in coating
milk cartons and other applications (Table D-9).
TABLE D-9
LOW DENSITY POLYETHYLENE EXTRUSION COATINGS BY END USE, 1966 - 1972
(In .thousand tons)
End Use Category 1966 1972
Paper
Multiwalls 9.2 7.5
All Other 24.0 34.0
Total Paper 33.2 41.5
Paperboard
Milk Cartons 74.8 114.0
All Other 12.9 21.0
Total Paperboard 87.7 135.0
Films 16.0 18.5
Foil
Food 7.6 18.0
Nonfood ' 7.0 11.0
Total Foil 14.6 39.0
Total Coatings 151.5 224.0
Source: Modern Packaging Encyclopedia.
324
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The only other resins which.have achieved significant use in coal-
ings are the ethylene vinyl acetate copolymers,with a'volume of 35,000 tons
in 1972. These copolymers are tougher, softer, more flexible and less heat
resistant than LDPE. They are applied as an extrusion coating or used as
wax additives in hot melt coatings.
Other resins include PVC, HOPE, polyvinyl acetate, cellulose
nitrate and polyesters which are used for coating metal cans, glass con-
tainers, cellophane and other containers.
Coatings are not projected to grow because of replacement of the
milk carton by the blow molded polyethylene containers. Current demand of
114,000 tons of LDPE for milk cartons could decline to as low as 37,500 tons
by 1980. This loss will be offset by growth in existing markets and new
markets. One of the newer uses is the coating of glass containers to re-
duce breakage. Although these are thin films, there are a large number
of beverage containers which can be coated.
Demand in 1980 should be about.350,000 tons of plastic "resins.
A tabulation by type of resin is shown in Table D-10.
TABLE D-10
COATING RESIN CONSUMPTION BY TYPE OF RESIN, 1968 - 1980
(In Thousand.Tons)
Type of Resin 1968 1972 1980
Polyethylene LD ( 224 180
Polyethylene HD \ 18 ' 40
Ethylene Vinyl Acetate 20 35 60
Polyvinyl Chloride 10 9 10
Others 45 44 60
Total '265 348 350
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
Caps and Closures
Closures and caps for sealing and closing rigid glass, metal and
plastic containers amount to 90 billion units per year. Of this, plastic
caps and closures were 12.9 billion units, requiring 95,000 tons of resin.
Plastics have been growing at 4.2 percent per year since 1963. Most of these
caps or closures are used on glass and plastic containers. The future growth
of plastic containers will cause demand for closures and caps to increase
to 23 billion units by 1980, requiring 126,000 tons of resins.
325
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There has been a constant upgrading of closures which are now
designed with dispensing units which include snip-off tops, push-pull
sprays, turrets, spouts, daubers, applicators, pumps and measured dose
dispensers. The flexibility of plastics has permitted the development of
these devices,and will continue to allow plastics to capture markets from
metal closures.
Closures and caps are made from numerous resins both thermosetting
and thermoplastics. About 18 percent are the thermosetting resins such as
." ,< t
phenolics and urea formaldehyde. Because they are rigid, they have limited
design capability. Their excellent dimensional stability and outstanding
chemical resistance make them desirable for many drug, pharmaceutical and
chemical containers. Overall growth has been negative, and future use will
be limited to those markets where the above properties are desired. About
17,500 tons of resin were used in 1972jand this will decline to 15,000 tons
by 1980.
Thermoplastic caps and closures are made primarily from high den-
sity polyethylene and from polypropylene. Polystyrene, low density poly-
ethylene and polyvinyl chloride are used to a lesser extent. Freedom of
design and the ability to mold complex shapes will result in all of the
future growth in closures and caps in thermoplastics. Demand for 87,000
tons of resin in 1972 will increase to 111,000 tons by 1980 (Table D-ll).
TABLE D-ll
RESIN DEMAND FOR CAPS AND CLOSURES. BY TYPE OF RESIN. 1972 10 1980
(In million pounds)
Type of Resin 1972 1980
Thermoplastics
Polyethylene HD 22.5
Polyethylene LD 9.5
Polypropylene 22.5
Polyvinyl Chloride 9.0
Polystyrene 23.5
Total 87.0
Thermosets
Phenolics 10.0 8.0
Urea Formaldehyde 7.5 7.0
Total 17.5 15.0
Total All Resins 94.5 126.0
Spurce: Modern Plastics, 1972; MRI estimate, 1980.
326
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APPENDIX E
BACKGROUND DATA FOR PAPER RECOVERY
FORECASTS. 1972-1990 .
327
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RAW MATERIALS PROFILE FOR THE PAPER INDUSTRY
It is significant to note that the return of recycling will be
accompanied by a general decline in the importance of virgin fiber derived
from the forest as roundwood (trees cut to be used as pulpwood) and from
residues (which are derived from forests or wood product manufacturing
operations).
All three major sources of fiber used as raw materials in domes-
tic paper mills will increase from 1972 to 1990 as total demand for paper
products increases (Table E-l, Figure E-l). However, by 1990 the profile
of raw materials will shift significantly to recycled and "reclaimed"
fiber: roundwood, 42.4 percent; wood residues, 31.5 percent; waste paper,
25.1 percent (Table E-2, Figure E-2). This is compared to: roundwood,
49.8 percent; wood residue 27.3 percent; waste paper, 21.4 percent in 1972.
Wood residues use might increase even more than indicated if the trend to
using smaller and smaller trees to produce dimension lumber continues
strongly. In a sense, the whole paper industry derives about one-half its
fiber from "secondary sources" in the "hierachy" of fibrous raw materials
allocation in the paper industry. To the extent these fibers come from
waste paper, they represent a net removal from total paper waste generation.
DEMAND FORECAST FOR RECYCLED NEWSPRINT. 1973 TO 1985
Introduction
We have forecast that news use in recycled newsprint will increase
from 490,000 tons in 1973 to 1,030,000 tons in 1985. This is a 110 percent
increase in recycling and will represent 22 percent of domestic newsprint
production in 1985, compared to 14.4 percent in 1973.
The original three mills of Garden State Paper Company remain as
the only self-standing recycling newsprint mills in the USA. However, two
of these mills have been greatly expanded in capacity (Pomona, California,
and Garfield, New Jersey), the latter mill having just added an estimated
80,000 tons per year capacity. In addition, Southwest Forest Industries
have a news deinking plant under construction at Snowflake, Arizona, for
supplemental furnish for groundwood pulp. Various other companies are
reported to be considering construction of new mills (some of which have
been reported in the trade press and some of which have not).
At the same time, domestic newsprint capacity is scheduled to in-
crease by 328,000 tons per year between 1973 and 1977 to 3,925,000 tons
328
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TABLE E-l
FIBROUS RAW MATERIALS USED IN PAPER AND PAPERBOAR7" MANUFACTURE
(In thousand tons)
Total
Year Roundwood—
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 :
1961
1962 :
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973 J/_
1975
1980
1985
1990
15,518
16,673
16,076
17,376
17,470
19,737
20,699
19,764
19,335
21,131
21,331
20,973
21,678
22,514
23,905
.25,369
26,879
25,794
28,705
30,415
30,710
29,844
30,526
_30,490
29,620
34,010
39,510
46,370
Wood
Residue
991
1,064
1 , ?. } 0
1,308
1,519
1,716
2,300
2,695
3,148
4,025
4,369
5,710
6,921
7,706
8,182
8,638
10,043
11,200
12,598
13,285
12,482
14,304
16,800
18,372
19,015
2^,130
29,210
34,280
Waste
Paper
7,956
9,071
7,881
8,531
7,857
9,041
8,836
8,493
8,671
9,414
9,032
9,018
9,075.
9,613
9,843
10,231
10,564
9,888
10,222k/
11,969£/
12,021
12,323
13,132
14,319
14,160
17,860
22,465
27,340
Other
Fibers
1,439
1,457
1,211
1,255
1,200
1,340
1,551
1,105
1,003
979
971
894
963
1,285
929
879
980
836
905
878
: 828
875
892
964
1,000
1,000
1,000
1 , 000
Fibrous
Material.1:
25,904
28,265
26,378
28,469
28,045
31,835
33,386
32,058
32,157
35,549
35,703
36,595
38,636
41,117
42,860
45,116
48,466
47,718
52,430
56,547
56,041
57,346
61,350
64,145
63,795
77,000
92,185
108,990
Total
Production
24,375
26,047
24,418
26,605
26,876
30,178
31,441
30,666
30,823
34,014
34,444
35,749
37,541
39,230
41,703
44,080
47,113
46,926
51,245
54,187
53,516
55,086
59,457
61,833
61,460
74,040
88,215
103,800
Ratio Fiber
To Production
1.063
1.085
1.080
1.070
1.043
1.055
1.062
1.045
'! .O-'-'1
L 0*4 "*
I. • L/ ~ .•' /
1.024
1.029
1.048
1.028
1.024
1.029
1.017
1.023
1.044
i.047
1.041
1.032
1.037
1.038
1.040
1.045
1.050
a/ Based on American Pulpwood Association data; 1950 to 1959 are estimates by
Midwest Research Institute; 1972 to 1975 American Paper Institute; 1980-1990 MRI.
b_/ Last Year for use of Bureau of Census data for waste paper.
£/ American Paper Institute data 1969 to 1975; excludes molded pulp and exports.
d_/ Preliminary.
Source: "Wood Pulp Statistics--35th Edition," Pulp Division, American Paper Institute,
November 1971; "The Statistics of Paper, 1973," American Paper Institute;
American Pulpwood-Association. Midwest Research Institute.
329
-------
u>
OJ
o
LU
Z
LU
107^ V ioan V
1965
1980
v Too
1985 v 1990
YEAR
Figure E.-l - Percentage of Fibrous Raw Materials Used in
Paper and Paperboard Manufacture
-------
TABLE E-2
FIBROUS RAW MATERIALS USED IN PAPER AND PAPERBOARD MANUFACTURE
(Percentage)
Year RoundwoodfL'
1950 59.9
1951 59.0
1952 60.9
1953 61.0
1954 62.3
19555 62.0
1956 62.0
1957 61.6.
1958 60.1
1959 59.4
1960 59.8
1961 ' 57.3
1962 ' 56.1
1963 54.8
1964 55.8
1965 56.2
1966 55.5
1967 54.1
1968 54.8
1969 53.7
1970 54.8
1971 52.0
1972 49.8
1973^/ 47.6
1975 46.4
1980 44.2
1985 42.8
1990 42.4
Wood Residue-'
3.8
3.8
4.6
4.6
5.4
5.4
6.9
8.4
9.8
11.3
12.2
: 15.6;
17.9
18.7
.19.1
19.2
. 20.7
23.5
24.0
23.5
22.3
25.0
27.3
28.6
. 29.8
31.3
31.7
31.5
Waste Paper
30.7
32.1
29.9
30.0
28.0
28.4
26.5
26.5
27.0
26.5
25.3
24.6
23.5
23.4
23.0
22 . 9 ,
21.8
20.7
19.5^
21.2£/
21.5
21.5
21.4
22.3
22.2
23.2
24.4
25.1
a/. Based on American Pulpwood Association data;
MRI; 1972 to
b/ Last year for
c/ American Paper
d/ Preliminary.
1975, American Paper. Institute
use of Bureau of
Institute data,
Other Fibers
5.6
5.1
,4.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.6
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.5
3.1
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.1
Total Fibers
100.0
100.0
100.0
ioo.o
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1.0 100.0
1950-1959 are estimated by
; 1980-1990, MRI.
Census data for waste paper.
1969 to 1975.
Source: Calculated by Midwest Research Institute.
331
-------
J.OOOr
>,000-
53,000
49
45,000
41,000
37,000
33,000
Z 29,000
0
1950
Roundwood
xx V/ood Residue
x Waste Paper
1,000|- , . . -
1955
1960
1965 1970
YEAR
1990
Figure E-2 - Fibrous Raw Materials Used in Paper and'Paperboard Manufacture
-------
per year (9 percent); these figures include recycled news.* On a compara-
tive basis, the use of news in deinked newsprint will rise by 47,000 tons
per year between 1973 and 1976, or 10 percent.
Methodology and Demand Forecasts
Our approach to the newsprint demand forecasts was straight
forward. The initial step was to make a forecast of total newsprint de-
mand (including imports) to 1985, based on historical trends and recent
patterns of demand. Although many newspaper publishers are switching to
28-pound paper, this transition should be complete in the next few years.
The historic demand increase was ^at a rate of 3.6 percent from 1963 to
1973; 1974 and 1975 demand is expected to be down slightly from 1973's
historic high. The rate of demand increase is forecast to be 2.3 percent
between 1975 and 1985, putting total USA demand at 13,530 COY..; ia °i:(5 :om
pared to 10,530 tons in 1975 (Table E-3);
The next step was to determine what proportion of total demand
will be satisfied by domestic mills. Domestic production has varied between
32 and 34 percent of demand since 1970, and is expected to decline to about
30 percent by 1975. Then it will increase to 32.7 percent in 1980 and 35.3
percent in 1985, returning to somewhat above the level of the early 1970's
(the long-term trend is, for domestic production to increase more rapidly
than imports). . . ' . .;
Based on these forecast production ratios, the domestic production
will be 4,700,000 tons in 1985, compared to 3,413,000 in 1973, up .l,287,uuO
tons or 38 percent (See Table''E-3 and Figure E-3).. •'
Forecast for Recycled Newsprint .
The third step of the procedure was to develop a forecast1 for'
recycled newsprint as a portion of domestic production. On a historical
basis, the use of waste, paper (news) in newsprint has grown from 11.4 per-
cent in 1969 to 14.4 in 1973 and 16.6 in 1975 (based on the API fiber use
data and our production forecast). Based on the trends taking place, we
have forecast that waste paper use in news will.be 22 percent of domestic
production in 1985 (Figure E-3). . . . . '.'
*• "Capacity 1973-1976;; Paper, Paperboard, Wood Pulp," API, 1974.
333
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TABLE E-?
NEWSPRINT DEMAND. PRODUCTION AND RECYCLING FORECAST. 1963 TO IS35
(In 1,000 Tons and Percent)
Waste Paper
Year
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
Total
Demand
7,508
8,086
8,418
9,239
9,108
9,289
9,915
9,836
10,036
10,406
10,726
Net
Imports
5,295
5,837
6,238
6,892
6,509
6,333
6,663
6,491
6,715
6,955
7,313
•
Domestic
Production
2,213
2,249
2,180
2,347
2,599
2,956
3,252
3,345
3,321
3,451
3,413
Use in
Production
High Actual Low
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
372
371
393
427
490
Waste Paper — Percent
To Demand
High Actual Low
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.6
To Production
High Actual Low
N'A
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
11.4
11.1
11.8
12.4
14.4
1975 10,530
1980 11,900
1985 13,300
Difference
1973-1985 2,574
7,230
8,000
8,600
1,287
3,200
3,900
4,700
1,287
537
5.1
16.6
860
1,500
1,010
750
1,030
540
7.2
11.3
6.7
6.3
7.7
3.1
22.0
31.9
17.5
19.2
22.0
7.6
Note: The forecast increase in use of waste paper in nexc-sprint is 540,000 tons between 1973 and 1985. This is
equivalent to five new deinking mills of 110,000 tons.per year input capacity.
Source: "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard, 1974," API; "Capacity Surveys," API; Forecasts by Midwest Research Institut
-------
o
I—
z
o
z
o
I—
u
o
a:
a.
Production
Recyced to Total
(High-
**&
_-o-»'
.^^'
•£&^-'*
Recycled (Low ^
forecast)
j i ii i
©-
j
.42
.38
Z
O
34 f=
Q
O
30
.26
O
u
22
O
t—
<
1963 1965
1970
1975
YEAR
1980
1985
18
14
.10
Figure E-3 - Domestic Newsprint Production, 1963 to 1985
-------
An alternate forecast of news recycling was also made to which
deinked news would capture about 80 percent of the increase in domestic
production between 1973 and 1985. This would put waste paper use .in news-
print at 31.9 percent of'domestic production in 1985. This, then, is the
high recycling forecast.
Analysis oi-' Kecyclinp, Forecast
The recycling of news into newsprint will be at least 1,030,000 ..
tons in 1985, compared to 490,000 tons in 1973. * Thus, our low forecast .
is fpr a doubling production of recycled news while total production in-
creases by only 38 percent. This forecast was examined to see how reason-
able it was in light of the history and outlook for newsprint production
in domestic mills.
The total increase in domestic production is 1,300,000 tons in
12 years; of this, 540,000 tons (41.5 percent) would be recycled news.
The 540,000 tons increase in the use of recycled newsprint would be equi-
valent to five new deinking mills of 110,000 tons per year input and
100,000 tons per, year production.
Under the more optimistic recycling forecast, the increase in
domestic production remains at 1,300,000 tons in 12 years; of this, 1,010,000
tons (or 78 percent) would be recycled news. The 1 million ton increase in
the use of recycled newsprint would be equivalent to 9.2 new deinking mills
of 110,000 tons per year input and 100,000 tons per year production.
In light of the trend to recycled newsprint in domestic mills,
we believe this range to be a reasonable forecast. However, it does mean
preferential expansion and construction of recycling capacity vis-a-vis
historical ratios of recycled versus virgin fiber newsprint. On the other
hand, several factors lend support to the forecast that five to nine new
recycling mills could be built in the next 10 years (one every 1 to 2 years).
* There are at least 15 major metropolitan areas that would
support a recycling mill of 100,000 TPY.
* The unrecovered supply and recoverability of news is adequate
to supply these mills.
Note that this is input tonnage and not deinked newsprint production,
which would be about 90 percent of input tonnage to allow for yield
losses of waste paper.
336
-------
* The long-term price of news is still in the range of $25 to
$35 per ton ("super sorted").
* The capital requirements are rising, but less tha. for new
virgin fiber capacity (per ton of capacity).
* Pollution control requirements are manageable by self-treatment
or municipal sewage charges.
* Newspapers continue to express interest in purchase of recycled
newsprint; recycling is favorably viewed.
* Several paper producers are making or have made mill feasibility
studies.
* The price of newsprint continues to rise.
The major uncertainties are: r^'urn on investment of private
capital; availability of investment funds; the uncertainties and costs of
pollution control requirements; the marketability of the product (ability
to tie down contracts).
On balance, we believe the forecast range for recycled newsprint
is reasonable. We believe that the most probable case is that the capacity
equivalent of seven new mills will be added in the next 10 years.
RECYCLING IN LINERBOARD. 1973 TO 1985
Overview
LinerL-oard is the predominant grade of paperboard. There are two
types of linerboard--kraft liner and recycled liner. The former is at least
80 percent virgin, fiber; recycled linerboard is generally all recycled fiber,
but may contain up to 80 percent virgin pulp. Recycling in linerboard has
only recently become significant as waste paper use in kraft linerboard has
increased as well as recycled linerboard after years of decline.
The use of waste paper (principally old corrugated containers) in
linerboard will increase from 759,000 tons in 1973 to 4.01 million tons in
1985, or up over 400 percent in 12 years (Table E-4, Figure E-4). This in-
crease will be split between supplemental furnish (2.1 million tons in 1985)
and recycled paperboard (1.9 million tons in 1985). At this point, waste
paper input will constitute 22.8 percent of linerboard production, up from
only 6.7 percent in 1973. >
337
-------
TABLE E-4
(1)
Year .
1963
1964
£ 1965
oo 1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974(p)
1975
1980
1985
(2)
Total
6,414
6,908
7,481
8,347
8,216
9,044
9,692
9,403
9,531
10,857
11,356
11,146
11,145
14,100
17,600
(3)
Kraft Liner
5,737
6,215
6,731
7,580
7,718
8,637
9,345
9,133
9,249
10,578
11,067
10,791
10,790
13,180
15,840
(4)
Percent
Waste Paper
in Kraft
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.6
3.0
2.5
2.7
4.0
5.3
6.2
8.5
12.0
(5)
Recycled
Linerboard
677
693
750
767
498
407
347
- 270
282
279
289
356
355
920
1,760
(In 1,000
(6)
Percent
Recycled
To
Total Liner
10.6 "
10.0
10.0
9.2
6.1
4.5
3.6'
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.5
3.2
3.2
6.5
10.0
tons and percent)
(7)
Calculated Waste Paper Use —
In Kraft Liner
Total
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
259
285
235
291
449
594
688
1,650
2,110
Mixed
NA
NA.
NA
NA
NA
NA
22
48
15
41
50
60
70
150
200
News
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0
0
0
0
1
0
0.
0
0
Container
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA .
NA
210
162
149
213
355
475
550
1,420
1,810
High
Grades
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA .
27
67
71
37
44
59
68
80
100
(8)
Calculated Waste Paper Use-
In Recycled Liner
Total
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
436
292
305
300
310
385
383
995
1,900
Mixed
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
36
23
24
24
25
31
31
80
150
News
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0
0
0
0
0
0
C
0
0
Container
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
382
257
268
264
273
339
337
875
1,675
High
Grades
NA
NA
NA
KA
NA
NA
17
12
13
12
12
15
15
40
75
Sources
(P)
Columns 2, 3, 5 from "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard, 1974;" American Paper Institute, 1974, p. 6,
Forecasts by Midwest Research Institute.
Column 7 from Institute of Paper Chemistry (1969); API Capacity Surveys (1970-1975);
Midwest Research Institute, 1980-1985.
Column 8 from Institute of Paper Chemistry (1969); API Capacity Surveys (1970-1975);
Midwest Research Institute, 1980-1985.
Note that grade of waste paper is calculated as 8 percent mixed, 88 percent container and
4 percent high grades.
Preliminary.
-------
u>
18
16
14
Z 12
O
Z
O
10
Z
O 8
t~
u
Z)
O
O
.X
X ,
X
Ratio
Total Production
""""-D
Kraft Linerboard
Ratio Waste Paper
Use in Kraft Liner^
\
X
•Ratio, Recycled to Total
I 1
Recycled Linerboard Production-
2—»
1963 1965
1970
1975
YEAR
1980
1985
.12
<
O
.10
.08
.06
.04
.02
u
u
O
i
Figure E-4 - Linerboard Production, Domestic Use, and
Waste Paper, 1963 to 1985
-------
Total output of linerboard will increase from 11.4 million tons
in 1973, to L7.6 million tons in 1985, or 54 percent. In this increase,
3.25 million tons of waste paper will be used, or about one-half of the in-
crease in demand for linerboard. Thus, this forecast is for a rather signi-
ficant shift to the use of recycled fiber in linerboard compared to historical
trends.
Demand and Recycling Forecasts
The outlook for linerboard demand was developed from historic
trends for domestic use. The demand was then split between kraft linerboard
and recycled linerboard, based upon our best estimate of raw materials
availability and usage.
Recycled linerboard has been in decline for years (Table E-4,
Figure E-4). However, there has been new capacity added to make recycled
linerboard, e.g., Crown Zellerbach's mill at Antioch, California, and the
demand trend is forecast to reverse based upon the fact that mill economics
are more favorable and mill sites for new linerboard mills are very limited
today. We have forecast that recycled linerboard demand will rise from
356,000 tons in 1974 to 1.76 million tons in 1985. This increase in demand
is equivalent to 10 mills of 400 tons per day each (or 140,000 tons per year)
output.
The demand for kraft linerboard will also increase significantly—
from 11.1 million tons in 1973 to 15.8 million tons in 1985. The use of
waste paper as supplemental furnish in kraft linerboard took on significance
in 1973, when usage of waste paper increased to 450,000 tons from 290,000
tons the previous year. API capacity surveys show that by 1976 waste paper
use will be up to 860,000 tons in kraft paperboard. By 1985, we forecast
that waste paper use will be 12 percent of linerboard production, as compared
to 4 percent in 1973. The basis of this forecast is that many mills can
justify incremental expansions of 150 to 200 tons per day, which are economically
attractive; the limitations of new kraft mill sites is also an important factor
in this forecast.
The increase in annual use of supplemental furnish waste paper
in kraft linerboard is 1.66 million tons between 1973 and 1985; this in-
crease is equivalent to 31 mills adding 150 tons-per-day (53,000 tons per
year) repulping installations. About one-third of this increase will take
place between 1973 and 1977, according to API capacity surveys.
340
-------
Linerboard is a pivotal grade in future recycling in the USA.
The forecasts presented above are relatively optimistic; details of the
forecasts show that the dominant source of waste paper is old corrugated
containers (Table E-4). Both incremental and new mill capacity additions
must aggregate about 50 percent to recycling in the next decade to reach
this level of recycling.
RECYCLING IN CORRUGATING MEDIUM, 1973 TO 1985
Overview
i
Corrugating medium is produced in proportion to linerboard (domes-
tic use) for use as the fluting material in boxes. There are two types of
corrugating medium made--semichemical medium and recycled medium. The former
is at least 75 percent virgin fiber; recycled medium is generally all recycled
fiber, but may be up to 75 percent virgin pulp (which is seldom in prac-
tice). Recycling in corrugating medium has been practiced for decades and,
recently, recycled medium has begun to become more important after a period
of relative decline in the late 1960's. .
The use of waste paper (principally box plant cuttings in semi-
chemical and old corrugated containers in recycled medium) will increase
from 1.75 million tons in 1973 to 3.18 million tons in 1985 (Table E-5,
Figure E-5). This increase in waste paper use of 82 percent is heavily weighted
toward recycled medium which will increase in production from 1.1 million tons
in 1973 to 2.6 million tons in 1985, or 1.5 million tons. By contrast, .semi-
chemical medium, which uses about 20 percent waste paper, will increase from
4.1 million tons in 1973 to 5.5 million tons in 1985, or 1.4 million tons.
While the increase in production of each type is almost evenly split, the
proportion of recycled medium will increase substantially over the next de-
cade--from 21.5 percent of total production to 32 percent in 1985.
Total output of corrugating medium will increase from 5.25 million
tons in 1973 to 8.1 million tons in 1985, up 54 percent. Of this increase,
over 50 percent will be recycled medium.
Demand and Recycling Forecasts
The outlook for corrugating medium demand was developed from his-
toric trends .and tied directly to the use of linerboard. The total demand
was then split between semichemical medium and recycled medium, based upon
our best estimate of fiber availability and economics of medium production.
341
-------
TABLE E-5
CORRUGATING MEDIUM PRODUCTION. 1963 TO 1985
Production
(3) (4)
(1)
Year
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
(p)1974
1975
1980 .
1985
(2)
Total
2,962
3,165
3,438
3,800
3,743
4,062
4,395
4,264
4,520
4,846
5,255
5,131
5,130
6,500
8,100
Semi Chemical
Medium
2,287
2,447
2,638
2,910
2,982
3,371
3,617
3,405
3,580
3,874
4,127
4,011
4,010
4,750
5,500
Recycled
Medium
675
718
800
890
761
691 .
778
859
940
972
1,128
1,120
1,120
1,750
2,600
(5)
Percent
Recycled
of Total
22.8
22.7
23.3
23.4
20.3
17.0
17.7
20.2
20.8
20.1
21.5
21.8
21.8
27.0
32.0
(In 1,000 Tons and Percent)
(6)
Waste Paper Use--Semichemical
Total
• NA
NA
NA
NA
NA.
NA
672
754
714
774
849
800
800
950
1,100
Mixed
NA
NA
•NA
NA
NA
NA
46
42
47
82
77
72
70
70
70
News
NA •'
NA " ;
NA
NA
NA
NA
0
28
14 . .
27
19
16
15
15
15
Container
NA
NA .
NA
NA
NA
NA :
622
622
589
608
747
705
710
855
1,005
Migu
: Grades
NA
NA
.NA
NA
. NA
.NA
• 4
62
64
57
7
7
5
10
10
Waste Paper Use — Recycled Medium
Total
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
663
687
752 •
778
902
896
896
1,400
2,080
Mixed
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
12
11
12
12
14
14
14
22
40
News
NA
NA.
NA
NA
NA
•NA
7
7-
8
7
8
8
8
10
10
Container
NA
NA
NA
' • NA
NA
NA
641
666
729
754
• 875
869
869
1,358
2,020
High
Grades
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
10
10
Source: Columns 2, 3,4 from Statistics of Paper and Paperboard, 1974, API, 1974, p. 6; Forecasts
by Midwest Research Institute.
Column 6 from IPC (1969); API Capacity Surveys (1970-1975); Midwest Research Institute, 1980-1985.
Column 7 from IPC (1969); remainer calculated on basis of 1969 data.
(p) = Preliminary. •
-------
•p-
U)
9r
Ratio, Recycled to Total Production
Semi Chemical Medium Production
®__e -- ©
.— ® | J
Medium - Production
0
1963 1965
i i i
1975
YEAR
1980
1970
Figure E-5 - Corrugating Medium Production, 1963 to 1985
1985
0.30
0.20 P-
o
LLJ
_l
u
u
LU
QC
0.10
-------
Recycled lirierboard has held about. 20 percent of total medium pro-
duction for several years.. . However, the economics"of recycled medium are
generally favorable and several mills have converted from semichemical medium
in recent years; also, new capacity to produce recycled medium is under con-
struction (e.g., Inland Container's new mill in Indiana). The increase in
demand for recycled medium forecast is 1.48 million tons per year between
1973 and 1985. This is. equivalent to 12 mills of 350 tons per day output
(122,000 tons per year). Note that recycled medium is not exclusively made
from waste paper (Table E-5).
Semichemical medium dominates as far as tonnage is concerned--
accounting for about 80 percent of total medium demand. Semichemical medium
uses about 15 to 20 percent waste paper (usually box plant cuttings) routinely.
.Our demand forecast for recycling has been extended at 20 percent of output
of semichemical medium. By 1985, semichemical medium will be at 68 percent
of total medium production, compared to 78 percent in 1973. The increased
output of semichemical medium is 1.4 million tons, equivalent to 10 new mills
of 400 tons per day (140,000 tons per year) output.
Corrugating medium is a key grade for recycling of old corrugated
containers. Although our forecasts are relatively optimistic for recycling,
the waste paper should be available at competitive prices. The aggregate
new demand will be slightly over one-half in recycled product between 1973
and 1985 to reach the forecast level of recycling.
FORECAST OF RECYCLING IN OTHER CONTAINERBOARD GRADES, 1973 TO 1985
Overview
Containerboard grades of paper consist of linerboard, corrugating
medium, chip and fillerboard and "other grades," principally tube, can, and
drum;* panelboard; exports of linerboard, medium, etc.; and gypsum wall board.
In the "other" category, ^bout 1 million tons per year is gypsum wall board,
and 1.8 million tons per year is exported (mostly linerboard). This classi-
fication follows the American Paper Institute Paperboard Division statistical
series. . .
These grades are rather diverse in nature, with exported grades
(linerboard) principally virgin fiber, and gypsum wall board plus tube, can
and drum, principally recycled fiber. Thus, the two major types separate
into a good approximation of waste paper use, with recycled grades taking
essentially all recycled fiber.
Only about 380,000 tons per year of tube, can and drum are produced in
the containerboard category.
344
-------
Total demand will increase from 3.68 million tons in 1973 to 5.8
million tons in 1985. Of this latter, 3.6 million tons will be in the vir-
gin fiber products group, and 2.2 million tons will be recycled (Table E-6,
Figure E-6). Since growth trends indicate that the two types are on similar
growth patterns, the recycled grades will remain at about 38 percent of total
production.
Demand and Recycling Forecasts
The trend in use of gypsum wall board and tube, can and drum
paperboard favor recycled fiber products since gypsum wall board is a re-
cycled fiber product, and tube, can and drum is trending toward recycled
grades. To calculate the waste paper use, we assumed that the virgin fiber
grades would use a minimal amount of waste, and that the recycled grades
would require the waste paper documented by McClenahan for 1969 in gypsum
linerboard--107 percent waste paper of production and the use of mixed, 22
percent; news, 23 percent; corrugated, 41 percent; and high grades, 14 per-
cent.
On this basis, the forecast of recycling was a straightforward
calculation—after total demand was forecast for each type, the use of waste
paper was calculated. Waste paper use will rise from 1.48 million tons in
1973, to 2.35 million tons in 1985, or nearly 1 million tons increase (Table
E-6).
FORECAST OF RECYCLING IN BOXBOARD. 1973 TO 1985
Overview
The history of boxboard production (all types) is that recycled
grades have maintained total production, but all of the growth in output has
gone to virgin fiber products. Thus, the recycling ratio has declined steadily
since 1963, and showed no indication of reversing even in the "boom" years of
1973 and 1974.
Overall demand for boxboard is forecast to increase from 8.96 million
tons in 1973 to 10.5 million tons in 1985, or a relatively modest 17 percent
(Table E-7, Figure E-7). The virgin fiber boxboard production will take most
of the increase—about 1.4 million tons; by contrast, recycled fiber products
will increase a modest 0.2 million tons. The overall recycled boxboard per-
centage will decline from 51.5 in 1974 to 46.7 in 1985. Most of this decline
takes place in folding boxboard.
345
-------
TABLE E-6
o
Year
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1980
1985
Total
1,827
2,191
2,336
2,451
2,511
3,001
3,437
3,345
3,664
3 , 892
3,678
3,577
3,575
4,650
5,800
Virgin Fiber
920
1,262
1,401
1,531
1,603
1,935
2,274
2,271
2,426
2,544
2,292
2,248
2,247
2,900
3,600
(In 1
Recycled
907
929
935
920
908
1,066
1,163
1,074
1,238
1,348
1,386
1.3295/
1,328
1,750
2,200
.,000 Tons and
Recycled
Percent
of Total
49.6
42.4
40.0
37.5
36.1
35.5
33.8
32.1
33.7
34.6
. 37.7
37.1
37.1
37.6
37.9
Percent)
Total
970
995
1,000
985
970
1,140
1,245 .
1,150
1,325
1,440
1,480
1,420
1,420
1,875
2,355
?OJ • TU I9H
5
Estimated Waste
Mixed NPUQ
215
220
220
215
215
250
275
255
290
315
329
310
310
415
520
220
230
230
225
225
260
285
265
305
336
337
325
325
425
540
Paper Use
Container
400
410
410
405 .
400
470
510
470
545
590
611
580
580
770
965
High Grades
135
135
140
140
130
160
175
160
185
205
203 •
205
205
265
330
-------
"* /
Z 6
O
t—
Z
o
z
O 4
i—
u
D
0
O
Qi
x/'
Total Production
Virgin Fiber
Products—-
Ratio, Recycled to Total
— "
-° ---------- "° ----
—A-
Recycled Products
.» a >-
I i I I I I I L
i i i i i ' 1 1 1 1 L
1.50
.45
_i
<
O
i—
.40 O
u
u
.35
O
s
L30
.25
! 63 1965
1970
1975
:YEAR
1980
1985
Figure E-6 - All Other Containerboard Production, 1963 to 1985
-------
U)
•IS
00
1963 7,128
1964 7,421
1965 7,796
1966 8,368
. 1967 8,060
1968 8,515.
1969 8,543
1970 8,074
1971 8,020
1972 8,591
1973 8,965
1974 8,563(p)
.1975 8,550
1980 9,500
1985 10,500
(3)
Virgin Fiber
2,635
2,
3
3,
3
,809
,013
3,281
3,279
3,599
3,792
,568
,596
3,946
4,191
4,152
4,150
4,900
5,600
TABLE E-7
BOXBOARD PRODUCTION
(In 1,000 tons and percent)
(4)
Recycled
Boxboard
4,493
4,612
. 4,784
4,987
4,781
4,916
. 4,751
4,506 .
4,424
4,645
4,744
4,411
4,400
4,600
4,900
(5)
Percent
Recycled
63.0
62.1
61.4
60.3
59.3
57.7
55.6
._.' .55.8
55.2
54.1
53.3
51.5
51.5
48.4
46.7
(6)
Total
5,167
5,304
5,502
5,735
5,498
5,653
5,464
5,182
5,088
5,342
5,456
5,070
5,060
5,290
5,635
Estimated Waste Paoer Use
(7) -
Mixed
1,462
1,500
1,557
1,623
1,556
1,600
1,546
1,467
1,440
1,512
1,544
1,435
1,432
1,495
1,595
(8)
News
1,157
1,188
1,232
1,285
1,232
1,266
1,224
1,161
1,140
1,197
1,222
1,135
1,133
1,185
1,262
(9)
1,566
1,607
1,667
1,738
1,666
1,713
1,656
1,570
1,542
1,619
1,653
1,535
. 1,533
1,605
1,708
(10)
982
1,009
1,046
1,089.
-. 1,044!
1,074'
1,038
984' •-'
966;
1,014
1,037
965
962
1,005
1,070
Sources: Columns 2 to 4, "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard, 1974," API, 1974, P. 7; Midwest Research Institute
1975-1985.
Columns 6 to 10 calculated based upon: "Consumption of Paper Stock by United States Mills-in
1969 and 1970," by W. S. McClennehan Institute of Paper Chemistry, Tables V and VII.
Note: Waste paper use based upon 115 percent of production and 28.3 percent mixed, 22.4 per-
cent news, 30.3 percent container, 19.0 percent high grades.
-------
0.7
o 0.6
_w
o
o
V
0.5
0.4
10
Z 6
O
h—
U
Z>
Q
O 5
a: J
a.
1963 1965
v—
Total Production
\.
Ratio: Recycled/Total
V
Recycled Boxboard Production '"••o...
........... .
ig«.
Virgin Fiber Boxboard Production
I 1 I
1970
1975
1980
198,'
YEAR
Figure E-7 - Boxboard Production, 1963-1985
-------
A few recycled boxboard categories 8uch as tube, can and drum
paperboard (included in "other boxboard") are showing significant increases
in the use of recycled fiber. However, these increases are masked by rela-
tive declines in the major boxboard categories, especially in folding box-
board,
Boxboard has little overlap in the mixing of virgin and recycled.
fibers in specific grades--in other words, a product is usually made of one
or the other. Thus, once a demand forecast has been developed, it is rela-
tively simple to calculate waste paper use in recycled grades.
The basis for the waste paper calculation was the waste paper use
data developed by McClenahan for 1969 (see Table E-7 for the details). The
requirements for waste paper will rise from 5.45 million tons in 1973 to 5.63
million tons in 1985. Thus, without a major shift in trend away from the
use of virgin fiber products, boxboard products will be a stable to very
modest growth area for recycling.
The distribution of boxboard by type is given for 1980 and 1985 in
Table E-8. As shown, the growth potential in recycled types (set up, folding,
and other) is quite modest.
TABLE E-8
BOXBOARD PRODUCTION BY TYPE, 1980 AND 1985
(in thousand tons)
Total Folding . Milk and
Boxboard Boxboard Set Up Food All Other
1980 Total 9,500 4,950 440 1,760 2,350
Recycled 4,600 2,330 440 0 .1,830
Solid 4,900 2,620 0 1,760 520
1985 Total 10,500 5,500 440 1,960 2,600
Recycled 4,900 2,480 440 0 1,980
Solid 5,600 3,020 0 1,960 620
Source: Midwest Research Institute forecasts.
350
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FORECAST OF RECYCLING.IN FOLDING BOXBOARD. 1973 TO 1985
Overview
About one-half of all boxboard produced is folding boxboard. Thus,
the trend in recycling in folding boxboard influences the trend for the
broader category. The actual tonnage output of recycled folding boxboard has
declined slightly in recent years, and all growth in demand has gone to the
virgin fiber type boxboard. Thus, the percentage of recycled has declined
rapidly — from 70.5 percent in 1963 to 51.9 percent in 1974 (Table E-9).
This decline has dampened the outlook for recycling in boxboard
because most of the relative growth in recycling in other types of boxboard
(e.g., tube, can and drum) is more than offset by the decline in importance
of recycled folding boxboard.
Folding boxboard mills tend to be .ae older cyclinder machine oper-
ations that compete principally for "custom" packaging and heavier weights
of boxboard. In addition, the virgin fiber type has captured much of food
packaging and high volume uses. There is also substantial new capacity on
the way (about 700,000 tons per year net gain) in both bleached and unbleached
paperboard; this will favor the continued use of virgin fiber products in
the next decade.
For these reasons, it is difficult to build a case for a resurgence
of recycling in the folding boxboard grades. Our forecast reflects a slowing
o,f the decline rate, but not a flattening out of the ratio over time, (Figure
E-8, Table E-9). The crossover point (i.e., where production of virgin and
recycled are the same) will occur in 1976 or 1977. Since the use of waste
paper is tied direct^ to the fortunes of recycled folding boxboard, it fol-
lows that under these conditions the demand for waste paper in the folding
boxboard grades will stabilize, but not increase significantly.
,'j Our forecast is that waste paper demand will be essentially the
same in 1985 as in 1973 (Table E-9). Thus, the relatively pessimistic out-
look for recycling in one of the traditional recycling grades of boxboard
leads to an overall recycling rate in boxboard that is stable, but not grow-
351
-------
.70i
,65
\.
\
io: Recycled/Tofal
.60
u>
p
o
u
ID
Qi
O
Qi
O
c
o
.55k 2
O
i—
u
Q
O
.501- £
Total Production
X
Recycled Fiber Type Production-
Virgin Fiber Type Production
o
"A
.45
..o-
• •o
.40L
1975
YEAR
1980
Figure E-8- Folding Boxboard Production, 1963-1985
198.
-------
TABLE E-9
FOLDING BOXBOARD PRODUCTION. 1963 TO 1985
UJ
Ul
(in 1,000 tons and percent)
(1)
Year
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
(2)
Total
3,636
3,752
3,880
4,040
4,021
4,218
4,262
4,080
4,139
4,440
4,705
4,449(P)
4,450
(3)
Virgin
Fiber
1,074
1,159
1,221
1,308
1,361
1,488
1,633
1,607
1,732
1,963
2,184
2,141
2,142
(4)
Recycled
2,562
2,594
2,659
2,732
2,660
2,730
2,629
2,473
2,408
2,477
2,522
2,308
2,308
(5)
Percent
Recycled
70.5
69.1
68.5
67.6
66.2
64.7
61.7
60.6
58.2
55.8
53.6
51.9
51.9
Estimated Waste Paper Use
(6)
Total
2,946
2,983
3,058
3,142
3,059
3,140
3,023
2,844
2,769
2,849
2,900
2,655
2,655
(7)
Mixed
834
844
865
889
886
889
856
805
784
806
820
750
750
(8)
News
660
668
685
704
685
703
677
637
620
638
650
595
595
(9)
Container
893
904
927
952
927
951
916
862
839
863
880
805
804
(10)
High Grades
559
567
581
597
581
597
574
540
526
542
550
505
505
1980 4,950 2,620
1985 5,500 3,020
2,330
2,480
47.0
45.0
2,680 758 600
2,852 807 640
812
864
510
541
Sources: Columns 2 to 4, "Statistics of Paper and Paperboard, 1974," API, 1974, p. 17; Midwest Research Institute,
forecasts 1975-1985.
Column 6 to 10 calculated based upon: "Consumption of Paper Stock by United States Mills in
1969 and 1970," by W. S. McClennehan Institute of Paper Chemistry, Tables V and VII.
Note: Waste paper use based upon 115 percent of recycled grades production and 28.3 percent mixed, 22.4
percent news, 30.3 percent container, 19.0 percent high grades.
-------
WASTI' PAPER KhlCOVERY BY Gll/VDK, 1972 TO 1990
The basis of waste paper use is derived from: (1) basic paper
product demand by type; (2) the potential for recycling in each major grade
(e.g., linerboard); and (3) the actual forecast of recycling in each grade.
Once (3) above is established, it is also necessary to look at the grade
structure of waste paper for each recycling application.
.The principal reference for determining the amount and grade dis-
tribution of waste paper for each recycling application was the McCle'nahan
work referenced frequently in this study (for 1969). In addition, it was
possible to obtain the same data in a .less detailed, but useful way, .from
the API capacity surveys covering waste paper use for the years.1970 through
1973. In particular, the latter sources were useful where waste paper is
used in predominantly virgin fiber products, e.g., kraft paperboard. For
the myriad of recycled paperboard grades, we relied on the McClenahan data.
for., detail because only the total waste paper use by grade is given for
recycled paperboard by API statistics. Nonetheless, these two sources
werje the basis of developing the detailed grade structures for waste paper
in Table 107 and this appendix. -
The distribution of waste paper use by waste grade in each paper
grade was calculated from the McClenahan data. The results are given in
Table E-10.
Likewise, the summary of usage of waste paper by grade was developed
in a similar manner and is given for the years 1970 to 1990 in Table E-ll. '
Finally, when all uses of waste paper, including exports, are con-r
sidered, the total demand for waste paper by major grade category was deter-
mined (Table E-12). These data simply add to recycling the anticipated exports
(distributed to the same grades as domestic recycling) of waste paper for the
years 1972 to 1990.
354
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Table E-10
DISTRIBUTION OF WASTE PAPER USE BY GRADE BY PAPER CRAPE. 1969
LO
<_n
Ln
Total Total Waste
End Use Category Production Paper Use
Pa per board -' ' '
Conblnaclon boxboard
and chipboard - 4299 2963
Recycled llncrboard 402 436
Re-cycled medium 939 663
Llnerboard/boxboard
(kraft) 12913 259
Semtchemlcal medium 3547 672
Tube, can and drum 733 646
' Gypsum llnerboard 847 903
Total paperboard5 26069 8583
Other Paper and Paper-
Board
Construction • 1603 1134
Wet machine board 148 96
Paper
Printing, vrltlng and
related 14A99 850
Packaging and Industrial
conveyance 5078 131
Special Industrial 443 34
Tissue 3575 962
Total Paper 23595 1977
Ratio of Percent Percent Percent Percent Pulp Percent
Waste Paper Mixed News of Container . Pulp Substitute Dein'ning
To Product Mixed of Total News Total Container of Total Substitutes of Total Delnklnx of TotJ i
115 1402 28.3 1113 22.4. 1506- 30.3 . 739 14.9 203 4.1
108 36 8.3 -- -- 382 87.6 17 3.9 1 0.2
71 12 1.8 7 1.0. 641 96.7 .1 0.2 2- 0.3
2 22 8.5 -- -- 210 81. 1 27 10.4 -- .
19 46 6.8 --' -- 622 92.6 4 0.6
88 106 16.4 116 18.0 349 54.0 71 11.0 4 0.6
107 201 22.2 .206 22.8 373 41.3 .118 13.1 5 0.6
33 1830 21.3 1445 . 16.8 4100 47.8 . 988 11.5 220 2.6
71 695 61.3 198 17.5 217 19.1 . 24 2.1 —
65 77 80.2 -- -- 9 9.4 10 10.4
6 . -- --- 372 43.8 8 0:9 250 29.4 . 220 25.9
3 3 2.3 3 2.3 15 11.5 90 68.7 20 15.3
8 • 41 2.9 -- -- 23 67.6 10 29.4
27 2 0.2 38 -- 62 -- 513 -- 347
8 6 0.3 413 2J.9 85 4-.3 876 44.3 597 30 2
a/ Detail on food board and miscellaneous omitted . .
Sc-.:rcc: "Consur.pt Ion of Paper Stock by United States Mills In 1969 and 1970", Wi S. McC'.ennehan. Tables V. VI, VII, and VIII.
-------
TABLE E-H
ESTIMATED USAGE
Co
Wn
Waste Paper Grade
Mixed Grades
News—-post-consumer
News—converting!!'
Total
Corrugated—post-consumer
Corrugated—cuttings—'
Total
Deinking Grades and
Pulp Substitutes
Grand Total
Paper Demand
Recycling Rate
PAPER INDUSTRY
BY MAJOR
mim run. KtLlYCLiNG IN THE
GRADE CATEGORY lQ79_ioQ(Y-
(In Thousand Tons)
1970^
2,639
1,825
410
2,235
2,528
1.552
4,080
3.067
12,021
57,835
20.8
1971
2,776
1,754
420
2,174
2,700
1,577
4,277
3,097
12,323
59,440
20.7
1972
3,054
1,880
437
2,317
2,960
1.762
4,722
3,037
13,132
6.4,356
20.4
1973
3,251
2,129
450
2,579
3,430
1.861
5,291
3,198
14,318
67,122
21.3
' ' *- J- J J \J
1975^
3,215
2,110
440
2,550
3,410
1.820
5,230
3,165
14,160
66,490
2-1 . 3
1980
. 3,670
2,535 .
500
3,035
5,100
2,305
7,405
3,750
17,860
79,360
22.5
1 Q8S
-i- s o _;
4,185
2,985
560
3,545
7,425
2.870
10,295
4,440
22,465
93,565
24.0
1 1 QO A
iyyu
4,510
3,375
625
4 , 000
10,095
3,565
13,650
5,180
27.3AQ
109,240
25.0
a/ Based upon calculated printing scrap recovery of 2.8 percent of newsprint demand plus overissue
news at 1.4 percent of newsprint demand.
b/ Based upon 11.0 percent of containerboard mill production . (domestic use); calculated from McClor.ahan
data for cuttings 1969, 1970.
-------
LO
TABLE E-12
CALCULATION OP MASTE PAPER RECOVERY BV CRAPE. 1972-1990
(In thousand tons and percent)
1972 1975 1980 1985 1990
Recycling
Grade Category OnlyS/
Mixed 3,054
News 2,317
Container 4,722
Pulp Subs 2,100
Delnklng • 937
Total 13.132
Total Recycling Total Recycling Total Recycling Total Recycling ' Total
Percent Recovery^./ Only"/ Percent RecoveryS/ Only*/ Percent Recovery— ' OnlyS./ Percent Recovery Jt/ OnlyS/ Percent Recovery
23.3 3,155 3,215 22.7 3,440 3,670 20.5 3,905 4,185 18.6 4,435 4,510 16.5 4,785
17.6 2,385 2,550 18.6 2,725 3,035 17.0 3,240 3,545 15.8 3.770 4.000 14.6 4.235
36.0 4,880 5.230 36.9 5,590 7,405 41.5 7.905 10,295 45.8 10.925 13.650 49.9 14.470
16.0 2,165 2,150 15.2 2,305 2,540 14.2 2,710 3,000 13.4 3.195 3.525 12.9 3.74O
7.1 955 1.015 7.2 1,090 1.210 6.8 1.290 1.440 6.4 1.525 1.655 6.1 1.770
100.0 13,550 14,160 100.0 15,150 17,860 100.0 19.050 22,465 100.0 23,850 27.340. 100.0 29.000
I/ Recycling in the paper Industry (fiber use).
W Recovery of fiber for all uses including net exports. Recovery by grade based on same percentage as for recycling in the paper industry.
Source: Midwest Research Institute.
-------
BASIS FOR CALCULATION OF END USES, CONVERTING SCRAP. PAPER DISCARD
PATTERNS AND SOURCE OF WASTE PAPER GENERATION
The following data are the basis on which the calculations of
Tables 93 to 99 and Tables 100 to 104 in Chapter 10 were developed.
Newsprint:
1. About 7 percent goes into non newspaper uses such as publish-
ing; the balance is used in newspapers.
2. Converting scrap is estimated oh the following basis:
Seventy-five percent of consumption is in large newspapers experiencing
about 2.7 percent scrap rate.
I •
Twenty-five percent of consumption is in small newspapers or
publishing experiencing about 8 percent scrap rate.
0.75 x 0.027 + 0.25 x 0.08 = 0~.04
Twenty-five percent of demand is estimated to be overissue news-
paper; about 1.5 percent is recovered for recycling based on McClenahan
data for 1969/1970.
3. The characteristics of newsprint entry into solid waste is
estimated as follows: (See also "Nonpackaging Paper" Tables 26 and 34, and
page 56.*)
0.5 percent is lost or diverted to uses that do not enter waste.
0,5 percent of current consumption is retained in files or held
long enough to show a delay in entry to waste compared to current demand.
Thus, 1.0 percent is diverted/delayed, and 99.0 percent of current consump-
tion quantity enters municipal waste.
4. Household is estimated at 90 percent of net demand; 10 per-
cent is estimated as commercial/industrial waste, e.g., commercial newspapers
and printing (Wall Street Journal, etc.). There was no documented basis
for this split. Discard patterns will differ from city to city, e.g., where
street sales of paper are high, discard in commerical waste will be higher;
however, most newspapers are discarded from the home.
The Role of Nonpackaging Paper in Solid Waste Management, 1966 to 1976,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Solid Waste Management Office,
Publication SW 26c (1971)
358
-------
Printing Papers:
1. The principal uses for printing paper are: catalogs and
directories, magazines, books, commercial printing, and converted paper
products, with commercial printing and magazines the dominant categories.
Some of these products have a retention value, but most printed products
except certain types of books are discarded within a few years of manufac-
ture at the most; some books are removed more or less permanently Jrom the
waste stream, going into permanent retention.
2. Converting scrap in printing operations usually amounts to
15 to 18 percent for magazines, periodicals, catalogs, etc. We used 12
percent as the basic converting scrap factor, thus making allowance for
lower scrap rates in other types of printing paper.
3. The characteristics of printing paper is estimated as follows:
(See also "Nonpackaging Paper" Tables 27 and 34, and pages 56 and 58). About
30 percent of books go into more or less permanent storage, but less than
5 percent of the other printing grades are permanently retained. There is
some delay of entry into the waste stream because of retention of materials
for 1 to 5 years. Overall, the ratio of current consumption entering the
waste stream in any 1 year is about 0.89.
4. A majority of printed materials end up in the home--as catalogs
and directories, e.g., mail order and telephone books; as magazines, as
books; as direct mail advertising and other printed materials. However, the
same end uses apply to nonhpusehold. Overall, we estimated that 60 percent
of the total is household waste and 40 percent is npnhousehold (commercial/
industrial). Because of the diversity of uses, no firm basis could be de-
veloped for making the split.
Fine Papers:
1. The principal uses of fine paper are writing paper, reproduc-
tion paper, and other communication types of paper. Writing paper makes
up,over 50 percent of the total office uses.
2. Converting scrap ranges from an estimated 5 percent to 12
percent, depending on the converted product, e.g., business forms and in-
house reproduction have a higher scrap rate than stationary converting.
Overall, an average of 8 percent scrap rate was used.
3. Certain types of paper have a permanent retention value, e.g.,
bristols used for library cards, some types of records. For the most part,
permanent retention is less than 10 percent. Many types of fine paper are
retained from 2 to 10 years before discard. The combined effect of permanent
retention and delayed discard led to a ratio of 0.87 of annual tonnage to
be discarded. (See also "Nonpackaging Paper," Tables 28 and 34, and page
58).
359
-------
4. The fine paper grades are generally business type papers — forms,
stationery, computer printout, etc. We estimate that 80 percent ends up in
nonhouaehold and 20 percent in homes.
Industrial Converting and Packaging Paper:
1. These grades consist primarily of wrapping paper, shipping
sacks and grocery bag paper, and other converting paper, e.g., file folders,
plus industrial paper, e.g., filter paper. Thus, the product characteristics
are such that a short life span for the .product is to be expected with
discard essentially "as used". Some industrial paper goes into cable, gas-
kets, insulation and the like, which "disappears" as a paper product from
the paper waste stream.
2. Because the 'greatest tonnage is in high volume convertingi
we estimate the scrap rates to be 2 percent to 10 percent, with the average
about 5 percent.
3. Some special use grades are diverted into other types of waste
and some delay in discard occurs. However, we estimate that about 98 per-
cent of current tonnage ends up being discarded rather promptly.
4. The packaging grades of paper are split between household and
nonhousehold. The largest quantities go into bag and sack paper and wrap-
ping paper (retail stores packaging products to carry to the home); and
shipping sack and other uses which are largely nonhousehold uses. Overall,
we estimate 65 percent is household and 35 percent is nonhousehold.'
Tissue:
1. The principal uses for tissue are: toilet paper, facial
tissue, towels, napkins, wipers, and wrapping tissue. Of these, toilet
tissue constitutes about 35 percent, which "disappears" from the solid waste
stream into sewer systems. Some other tissue is disposed of in nonconven-
tional manners too, such as burning or sewer.
2. There were no real guideline data available for estimating
converting scrap rates for tissue. We estimate the conversion scrap to
fall between 3 and 8 percent; 5 percent was used.
3. Almost all tissue products are used once and then discarded;
that is the nature of the products. Thus we believe that tissue enters
the waste stream essentially as produced. Toilet tissue is discarded into
sewer systems. The discard profile was estimated as 0.62 with 0.35 being
"diverted" toilet paper and 0.03 being other "diverted" discard.
360
-------
4. Tissue products are personal use products associatea with
human activities. Thus, a function of waste generation is where the per-
sons are when the products are used. Facial tissue is largely a home use
item—about 80 percent we estimate. Napkins are used for eating—about 67
percent in home and 33 percent nonhousehold. Paper towels are probably
about 80 percent a household item. Wipers are a nonhousehold product used
in commercial/industrial applications. Based on a calculation by end uses
for 1972, a split of 70 percent household and 30 percent nonhousehold was
used.
Containerboard:
1. About 95 percent of linerboard, medium and chipboard is used
to make shipping containers for a multitude of products and purposes. While
some products can go into a long inventory cycle, the containerboard has
generally served its purpose in a matter of weeks or months and is discarded.
2. The conversion scrap rates varies for containerboard from
perhaps 5 percent to 15 percent, depending upon the configuration of f.he
box. The average is probably about 8 to 9 percent. However, we have used
11 percent scrap rate because this can be documented in the McClenahani'
references wherein containerboard cuttings reported to be used in recycling
were equal to 10.8 to 11.1 percent of containerboard production for 1969
and 1970. While some other materials, e.g., bag wastes are probably re-
ported as corrugated cuttings, this is still a sound basis on which to
relate scrap production for this category.
3. Containerboard enters the waste stream as produced and we
estimate a nominal 0.02 is diverted from waste; 0.98 is discarded to solid
waste in the year produced and used.
4. Containerboard products, i.e., corrugated shipping containers
are discarded where the product is unpacked. For the most part, this is in
commercial and industrial establishments. Based upon the Fibre Box Associa-
tion's "Classification of Shipments by End Use, 1970-1973," (page 24, "Fibre
Box Industry Annual Report, 1973") it was estimated that 68 percent of
containers are discarded in commercial establishments (retail stores, ware-
houses, etc.) and 32 percent in. .industrial plants (auto assembly plants,
electronics plants, etc.). Some boxes reach households via mail order
purchases and are retrieved by the residents. We estimate no more than 10
percent of the boxes in the commercial category do so. Thus, the final
allocation was: household, 7 percent; commercial, 61 percent; and industrial,
,32 percent (93 percent nonhousehold).
.!/ Op. Cit.
361
-------
Other Containerboard:
1. The principal products are gypsum wallboard (about 1 million
tons per year), tube, can and drum (about 400,000 tons per year); the ba-
lance is panelboard and other containerboard type paper.
2. The conversion scrap rate is unknown, and the products are
diverse in nature. We estimate scrap rates are in the order of 5 to 10
percent; we have used 7 percent.
3. About 1/2 the tonnage goes into construction products (gypsum.
wallboard) and durable goods (panelboard). This is diverted from the mixed
municipal waste stream in discard. We estimate about 10 percent enters
the municipal waste stream in identifiable form; the remainder is in con-
struction debris, junked autos, appliances and the like. The other 1/2
of the category is in uses that become discards rapidly (e.g., tube, can,
drum) and here we estimate only 10 percent is diverted to other uses and
90 percent discarded to municipal waste streams. The calculation for muni-
cipal waste is: Discard = .50 x .10 + .50 x .90 = .50. Thus, .50 is
diverted.
4. Other containerboard discard patterns could not be accuarately
assessed. We estimated 50 percent household and 50 percent nonhousehold
discard.
Folding Boxboard:
1. The principal use is folding cartons for a multitude of pro-
ducts; some is used in various other uses that are only vaguely documented
by paper industry sponsors, e.g., game boards.
2. Conversion scrap has been estimated for years by the Paper-
board Packaging Council at 19 percent of carton input tonnage. We estimate
a scrap rate for noncarton uses of 10 to 15 percent. The composite scrap
rate is estimated at 16 percent, based upon McClenahan— data for use of
boxboard cuttings in 1969/1970, compared to boxboard production in those
years.
3. Boxboard is discarded as produced and used; some inventory of
product takes place, but this is minor. We estimate that a nominal 2 percent
is diverted and 98 percent is discarded to the municipal waste stream.
_!/ Op. Cit.
362
-------
4. Folding, boxbpard is used principally for cartons and tlms
is predominantly a retail ,sales package; most of it is discarded in ihe
home where the contents are used. Thus, we estimate that 80 percent is
household and 20 percent is nonhousehold.
Setup Boxboard:
This is used for heavy weight boxes, e.g., shoes, candy, hosiery,
etc. Its profile is similar to folding boxboard. We estimate 10 percent
scrap and 98 percent discard to municipal waste.
Setup boxboard is used almost exclusively in retail sales packages.
We estimate 90 percent is discarded from the home and 10 percent in non-
household locations.
Milk and Food Service:
1. The principal uses are milk cartons, food cartons, food cups,
plates, and miscellaneous uses of which nonpacking is about 100,000 tons
per year.
2. The.conversion scrap rate is estimated in the range of 10 to
15 .percent. This scrap is solid bleached sulfate and serves as pulp sub-
stitute grade. We used 12 percent.
i
3. All of these products are short life products and discarded
promptly. Thus, we estimate essentially 100 percent discard to waste.
4. Milk and food service is predominantly food packaging and,
thus, is discarded where the contents are emptied—at home or food service
locations. On the basis that 70 percent of meals are eaten at home and
30 percent away, we split the discard between household and nonhousehold.
Other Boxboard:
1. This category consists of tube, can and drum paperboard (made
in boxboard mills) about 700,000 tons per year; and miscellaneous uses of
up to 1 million tons per year. Many of the latter uses are heavyweight
products, e.g., publishers book, cardboard, nonbending board, etc.)
2. The conversion scrap rate is estimated to range from 5 to
15 percent, but no data base is known; we used 10 percent because this is
an average for converting type operations.
363
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3. Tube can and drum paperboard is used and discarded even though
some industrial drums are returnable and reused several times. Some of the
miscellaneous uses go into industrial or consumer products, e.g., books,
that have a permanent retention value. The category is too diverse to make
more than an estimate: 15 percent diverted from the paper waste stream;
85 percent entry municipal solid waste systems.
4. Other boxboard is classified into miscellaneous uses that
cannot be accurately assessed from a solid waste standpoint. We estimated
50 percent household and 50 percent nonhousehold.
Wet Machine Board and Construction Paper:
1. These products are used for shoe board, book bindings, and
construction paper such as roofing felts. Thus, a high percentage is diverted
from the identifiable mixed waste stream and shows up as a part of construc-
tion debris, "leather" shoes, and the like.
2. Conversion scrap is probably 5 to 15 percent, depending on
the product. We used 8 percent.
3. The diverted category is estimated at 90 percent of the total
demand; that entering mixed waste as an identifiable paper product is thus
10 percent. (See also "Nonpackaging Paper," Tables 32 and 34 and page 60).
4. Construction paper is a minor cateogory and the waste discard
was classified as 50 percent household and 50 percent nonhousehold (most of
which is related to construction activity). There is no published basis on
which to make a split.
Insulating and Hard Pressed Board:
1. These products are used for building construction and in
industrial and consum-.t products, e.g., applicances, furniture, autos,
panels, etc. About half of this goes into buildings, but the other appli-
cations are growing more rapidly in use. Many times there are wood wastes
(sawdust) mixed with an epoxy.
2. Conversion scrap is probably 5 to 15 percent, depending upon
the specific product being made. We used 8 percent.
3. The diverted category is estimated at 90 percent of total
demand because these products are viewed in solid waste as part of special
waste categories, e.g., construction debris, appliances, etc. That entering
364
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municipal waste in an identifiable form is estimated at 10 percent. (See
also "Nonpackaging Paper," Tables 32 and 34, and page 60.)
4. Insulating and hard pressed board is a minor category in
which waste discard was classified as 40 percent household and 60 percent
nonhousehold. There is no published basis on which to make a split.
365
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APPENDIX F
REFERENCES AND SOURCES
366
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1. "Factsy" Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc., Yearbook 1970.*
2. "A National Study of Roadside,Litter--Summary," Keep America Beautiful,
Inc., October 1969.
3. "Towards, a National Materials Policy, Basic Data and Issues," an interim
report, The National Commission on Materials Policy, April 1972.
4. "Marketing Guide to the Packaging Industries-IMG9," Charles H. Kline
and Company, Inc., 1972.' \
5. "Plastics-Prospects and Problems," Chemical Marketing Research Associa-
tion, Pittsburgh Meeting, February 13-15, 1967.
6. "Review and Forecast," The Chemical Marketing Research Association,
New York meeting, May 5-7, 1971.
7. "Review and Forecast," The Chemical Marketing Research Association,
33rd Annual Meeting, May 8-10, 1973.
8. "Plastics Today and Tomorrow," Commercial Development Association,
November 1971.
9. "Canned Food Pack Statistics 1971-1972," National Canners Association,
July 1972. .
10. "Oregon Report," Soft Drinks. March 1973, p. 29.
11. "The Family Size Market—How Big Can it Get," Soft Drinks. February
1972, p. 26.
12. "Sales Survey of the Soft Drink Industry," National Soft Drink Associa-
tion 1969, 1971, and 1972.
13. "1970--SDI's Review of a Year of Growth and Developments," Soft Drink
Industry, December 31, 1970.
14. "A Study of the Soft Drink Industry 1965-1970," Corplan Associates.
15. "Soft Drinks 16th Annual Survey," Soft Drinks. December 1972.
16. "Stronger and/or Coated Bottles in Development," Soft Drinks. May . ,
1973, p. 14: , ' '
17. "LOPAC: The Real and Living," Chemical Week. October 24, 1973, p. 13.
* References not verified by EPA.
367
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18. "The Carbonated Beverage Industry-1975 Forecasts," American Can Company.
19. "Predicts 1,000 Fewer Plants—5 Billion Case Volume," Soft Drinks.
January 1973, p. 28.
20. "Predicts 70 percent1 of Nonreturnable Sales in Big Bottles," Soft
Drinks. 1972, p. 18.
!
21. "Soft Drink Industry Outlook," presentation by Margro F. Re'p'port,
Beverage and Cosmetics Analyst," E.F. Hutton and Company, Inc. To
Houston Society of Financial Analysts, April 25, 1973, Wall Street
Transcript, June 4, 1973.
22. "The Glass Container Industry: A Review of the Past 10 years,"
American Glass Review. January 1972, p. 9.
23. "Clearing the Shelves for all Plastic Soda and Beer Bottles," Modern
Packaging." October 1973, p. 22.
24. "The Bigger They Come, the Harder They Sell," Modern Packaging.
August 1973, p. 24.
25. "Rigid^Plastics are Just Warming Up to Foods," Modern Packaging.
August 1972, p. 24. .
26. "Materials and Containers for Today's Market," Food Engineering,
March 1973, p. 12.
27. "Enter the Flat Bottomed HOPE Grocery Sack," Modern Packaging.
28. "Consumer Packaging," Chemical and Engineering News. April 12, 1973,
p. 20.
29. "In-roads for HDPE Milk Containers." Modern Packaging. April 1973,
p. 12.
30. "One-Way Milk Jug Shapes Up as Top Market for HDPE," Modern Plastics.
April 1973, p. 20.
31. "Plastics Into Bottles Blowing Up a Storm," Chemical Marketing Reporter.
January 1, 1973, p. 7.
32. "Milk Bottles: Healthy New Market for Polyethylene," Chemical Week.
June 14, 1972, p. 27.
368
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33. "Sturdy Toys Help to Strengthen Polystyrene Sales," Chemical'Week.
November 29, 1972, p.. 17.
34. "Will PVC's 1973 Crunch Became a Glut in 1975," Modern Plastics.
January 1973, p. 66.
35. "PVC's Perils of Pauline: Environmental Goblin is Replaced by Toxicity
Dragon," Modern Plastics. July 1973, p. 16.
36. . "Hot Market for Hot Melts," Chemical Engineering. April 2, 1973, p. 30.
37. "What's What in Bottle Resins," Modern Plastics, September 1973, p. 14.
38. "Metal, Glass and Plastic Containers," Paine Webber, Jackson and Curtis,
Inc., The Wall Street Transcript, August 6, 1973, p. 34,039.
39. "Get Set for Another Rough and Tumble Record - Smashing Year," Modern
Packaging. January 1973, p. 22.
40. "In Converting Its Economics That is Pushing Innovation," Modern Packaging.
May 1973, p. 49.
41. "Composite Packaging Films: Interest is High, Action is Spotty,"
Modern Plastics. May 1973, p. 52.
42. "The Outlook for PP Packaging Film: Perhaps Better," Modern Plastics,
•May 1973, p. 56.
43. "Bigger Market for LDPE .Shopping Bags," Modern Plastics, June 1973, p. 12.
44. "Film Use Will Double," Modern Packaging. August 1972, p. 8.
45. "HDPE - Old .Film Learns New Tricks, Works at Low Cost," Modern Packaging.
May 1973, p. 36.
46. "There's Room for HOPE in the Paper Business," Plastics World. May 1973,
p. 46.
47. "U.S. Container and Packaging Materials Production: 1960-1972,"
Modern Packaging Encyclopedia and Planning Guide 1972-1973, p. 43.
48. "Thermoformed Resin Volume in 1972 Hit 1 Billion Pounds Rising 30 Per-
cent Over 1971," Chemical Market Reporter, p. 7.
369
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49. "If You Think P.S. is a Commodity, Look Again," Modern Plastics.
March 1972, p. 41.
50. "Polymer Output Swells," Chemical Week. October 3, 1973, p. 19.
51. "In Metal Cans or Plastic the Lids Off for Paint," Modern Packaging.
52. "Watch Thermoforms Pick up Speed," Modern Packaging. March 1973, p. 29.
53. "Second Lap for Aerosols in Plastics," Modern Packaging. September 1972,
P. 45.
54. "Containers and Packaging," U.S. Department of Commerce, October 1972.
55. "Plastic Bottles - A Growth Study," Containers and Packaging. October
1970, p. 8.
56. "1971 Annual Statistical Review," Distilled Spirits Industry.
57. "Hiram Walker - Gooderham and Worts," Speech by Clifford Hatch,
President to the Vancouver Society of Financial Analysts, June 28,
1973, Wall Street Transcript. July 16, 1973, p. 33,820.
58. "French Wine - In Plastic Bottles," Plastics World. November 1972,
p. 14.
59. "Chemical Technology Key to Better Wines," Chemical and Engineering
News. July 2, 1973, p. 14.
60. "Beauty Chemicals: Cosmetics "Packaging," Chemical Market;
June 11, 1973, p. 45.
61. Annual Report, "Metal Cans Shipment 1969, 1971," Can Manufacturers
Institute.
62. "The Impact of Lower Cost Substrates on Can Making - Howard Cannon,"
American Institute of Chemical Engineers, Sixty Ninth National
Meeting, May 16-19, 1971.
63. "Devaluation Hikes Tin Plate and TFS Tabs." Modern Packaging. June;
1972, p. 31.
64. "It Looks Like Another Banner Year.for Aerosols," Modern Packaging.
August 1973, p. 5.
65. "Steel Products Manual," Tin Mill Products, American Iron and Steel
Institute, July 1968.
370
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66. "A-Z of the Tinplate Can," Tin International, January 1973, p. 7.
67. "Who's Who in Profits," Robert S. Hatfield, Continental Can Company,
Wall Street Transcript. June 25, 1973.
68. "Copper Industry Uses Much Scrap Iron," Environmental Science and
Technology. February 1973, p. 100.
69. "Cans," Modern Packaging. April 1971, p. 24. . .
70. "The Future for Tinplate in the U.S.," R. Thomas Willsbn Conference
On Tin Consumption, London: March 13-17, 1972.
71. "Statistics for 1972," Modern Plastics. January 1973, p. 54.
72. "U.S. Industrial Outlook 1973," Containers and Packaging, p. 41.
73. "Can We Recycle Cans?" Howard S. Cannon, Technology Review. May 1972,
p. 40.
74. "Steel Industry Spurs Recycling of Tin Cans and Junked Autos,"
John P. Roche, Catalyst. Vol. II, No. 4, p. 23.
75. "Used Steel Cans Being Recycled by the Millions," Soft Drinks.
i February 1972, p. 55.
76. Progress Report on Recycling, "Magnetic Separation of Steel Cans,"
a key to solid waste management, American Iron and Steel Institute.
77. "Use of Plastics: A Growing Problem in Solid Waste Disposal?"
Niren L. Nogda and Lyndon R. Babcock, Jr., Compost Science, March-
April 1973, p. 26.
78. "Eliminating or Disposing of Industrial Solid Wastes," Rudy G. Novak,
.. Chemical Engineering. October 5, 1970, p. 78.
79. "Waste Processing Complex Emphasizes Recycling,". William Herbert,
Wesley A. Flowers, Public Works. June 1971, p. 78-81.
80. "Incentives for Recycling and Reuse of Plastics," Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
prepared for Environmental Protection Agency, 1972. Distributed by
National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce,
PB 214-045.
81. "The Beverage Container Problem - Analysis and Recommendations,"
Research Triangle Institute prepared for Environmental Protection
Agency, September 1972, distributed by National Technical Information
, Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, PB 213-341.
371
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82. "The Role of Plastics in Resource Recovery," Midwest Research Institute,
May 23, 1973, prepared for Manufacturing Chemists Association.
83. "Resource Recovery" - The State of Technology prepared for the Council
on Environmental Quality by Midwest Research Institute.
84. "Salvage Markets for Materials in Solid Waste," Midwest Research
Institute, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1972.
85. "The Role of Packaging in Solid Waste Management 1966 to 1976,"
Midwest-Research Institute, prepared for the Bureau of Solid Waste
Management, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
86. "The Plastics Industry in the year 2000," prepared for the Society of
Plastics Industry, Inc., and the Society of Plastics Engineers by
Stanford Research Institute, R. L. Glauz, Jr., A. G. Kridl, R. H. Schwoar,
and S. L. Soder, April 1973.
87. "Outlook, We Have to Care 1973," Owens Illinois, January 1973.
88. "Resource Recovery Processes for Mixed Municipal Solid Wastes," Part II,
Catalogue of Processes, Midwest Research Institute Project No. 3634-D,
December 18, 1972, prepared for Council on Environmental Quality.
89. U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Industrial Reports, Metal Cans,
M34D, 1961-1973.
90. U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Industrial Reports, Glass Containers,
M32G, 1961-1973.
91. "Behind the 32 Ounce Resealable Returnable Boom," Soft Drinks. July 1973,
p. 29.
92. "Plasti-Shield Containers Conserve Material, Lessen Load on Solid
Waste Disposal System" Outlook, Owens Illinois, 1973, p. 6.
93. "Barrier Bottles are on the March, But Slowly," Modern Plastics.
February 1973, p. 62.
94. "The Brewing Industry in the United States," Brewers Almanac. 1970.
95. "A History of Packaged Beer and Its Market in the United States,"
American Can Company, 1969.
372
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96. "Carbonated Beverages in the United States," American Can Company.
97. "Vending is More Than a Hungry Slot — Its Packages That Work,"
Modern Packaging. September 1972, p. 31.
98. National Planning Association, "Metropolitan Growth Pattern^ for the
Coming Decade," Report No. 70 R-2, December 1970.
99. "Charlotte Plant Installs Prototype Model of Systems to Clean-Up Con-
sumer Gullet," Outlook, Owens Illinois, p. 9.
100. Continental Can Company Remarks by Robert Hatfield, Chief Executive
Officer to the New York Security Analyst, June 19, 1973, Wall Street
Transcript. July 9, 1973, p. 33,736.
101. "Steel Brings New Competition to Drawn and Iron Beverage Can Market,"
Modern Packaging. June 1972, p. 28.
102. "National Food Situation," U.S. Department of Agriculture, May 1973.
103. Steel Can Study Prepared for the Resource Recovery Division Office
of Solid Waste Management Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, June 1973.
104. "Recycling is Economical and Feasible," Plastics World, March 1973.
105. "The Statistics of Paper," American Paper Institute, 1972, p. 40.
106. Arella, D. G., "Black Clawson's Presentation to O.S.W.M.P. or. the
Concept of Wet Processing Solid Wastes," United States Environmental
Protection Agency, Form 1320-6 (Rev. 6-72) August 10, 1973.
107. "A Round Table Discussion on the Newly Emerged Solid Waste Agglomerates,"
Waste Age. Volume 4, No. 4, pp. 10-14, 16, 24, 28, 30, 68-73, 77-78,
July-August 1973.
108. Battelle, Columbus Laboratories, Columbus, Ohio, Study to Identify
Opportunities for Increased Solid Waste Utilization—Paper. Volume
VIII, XIX, p. 154.
109. Beltrami, E. J. and C. N. Ehler, "Paper Residuals Management in Offices,"
Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, D.C., July 1973, p. 104.
110. Bureau of the Census, Current Industrial Report Series M26A (70)-13.
Pulp, Paper, and Board: 1970, Washington, D.C. 1972, p. 24.
373
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111. Bureau of the Census, Current Industrial Report Series M26A (71)-13,
Pulp, Paper, and Board: 1971, Washington, D.C., 1972, p. "4.
112. Midwest Research Institute, "Salvage Markets for Materials in
Solid Waste," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, No. SW-29C,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1972, Volume XXI,
p. 187.
113. Douglas, J. H., "Smokey's Other Problems," Science News. 104:138-140,
September 1, 1973.
114. Environmental Protection Agency - Solid Waste Disposal, "Proposed
Guidelines for Thermal Processing and Land Disposal of Solid Wastes,"
Federal Register. 38(81), Part II, April 27, 1973.
115. EnviroPlan, Inc., College Park, Maryland, "States Role in the Recovery,
Reuse and Recycling of Materials," National Commission on Materials
Policy, December 1972, p. 33.
116. Midwest Research Institute, "The Role of Nonp^-kaging Paper in Solid
Waste Management, 1966 to 1976," Public Health Service Publication
No. 2040, Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971, Volume
X, p. 76.
117. Midwest Research Institute, "Paper Recycling--The Art of the Possible
1970-1985," The Solid Waste Council of the Paper Industry, March 1973,
American Paper Institute, Inc., Volume XX, p. 181.
118. Midwest Research Institute, "The Components of Solid Waste," Proprietary
report, December 1968, Volume III, p. 14.
119. Hahl, E. D., Ed., "A Discussion: Government Incentives and Disincen-
tives to Reclamation of Waste Paper," Council on the Environment of
New York City, March 1973, Volume VII, p. 235.
120. International Research and Technology Corporation, "Problems and
Opportunities in Management of Combustible Solid Waste," National
Environmental Research Center, Environmental Protection Agency,
Contract No. 68-03-0060, October 1972, Volume XVI, p. 509.
121. Joseph E. Atchison Consultants, Inc., Waste Paper Recycling, "A
Comprehensive Study on Utilization of Waste Paper, Its Role in
Solid Waste Management, and Prospects for Increased Waste Paper
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p. 417.
374
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122. Lamdrie, J. F., and J. H. Klungness, U. S. Forest Products Laboratory,
"Effective Dry Methods of Separating Thermoplastic Films from W.-iste
Papers," U.S. Forest Service Research Paper FPL200, Madison, U.S.
.Department of Agriculture, 1973, p. 9.
123. MacKay, Shields Economics, Inc., New York, Industry Operating Coets:
Typical Kraft Board Mill (1965-1975). Personal Communication,
W. G. Copeland to W. E. Franklin, Midwest Research Institute, June 1973.
i
124. ,McClenahan, W. S., "Consumption of Paper Stock by United States Mills,
1968 and 1970," Institute of Paper Chemistry, Appleton, Wisconsin.
]/25. Mighdoll, M. J., "Recycling, Perspective and Prospective," Paperboard
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126. Nagda, N. L., and L. R. Babcock, Jr., University of Illinois, Chicago,
Illinois, "Use of Plastics: A Growing Problem in Solid Waste Dis-
posal?" Compost Science. Spring 1973, pp. 26-29.
127. National Academy of Sciences/National Academy of Engineering, Washington,
D.C., Man, Materials, and Environment. National Commission on Materials
Policy, Library of Congress Catalog Number: 73-5849.
128. National Center for Resource Recovery, Inc., Washington, D.C., Fact
Sheet, "Federal Government Role in Solid Waste Management," August 1973.
129. National Center for Resource Recovery, Inc., Washington, D.C., Fact
Sheet. "Ferrous Metals," May 1973.
130. National Center for Resource Recovery, Inc., Washington, D.C., Fact
Sheet. "Plastics," August 1973.
131. The National Center for Resource Recovery, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
Fact Sheet. "Shredders," April 1973.
132. The National Center for Resource Recovery, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
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133. National League of Cities United States Conference of Mayors, Washing-
; ton, D.C., Cities and Nation's Disposal Crisis—a Report of the National
League of Cities and the U.S. Conference of Mayors Solid Waste Manage-
ment Task Forece, prepared under grant S-802248 with the Office of
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. March 1973, Volume VII, p. 46.
375
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134. "Overview of U.S. Trends in Waste Paper Supply and Demand," report to
Browning Ferris Industries, Inc., Arthur D. Little, Volume V, p. 60.
i , .
135. "Paper and Paperboard - Part I," Arthur D. Little, Inc., Volume IV, I,
p. 96.
136. .Udell, J. G., Ph.D., "Future Newsprint Demand 1970-1980, An Economic
Analysis of Consumption Trends with Projections for the Next Decade,
American Newspaper Publishers Association, January 1S71, p. 42.
137. Rich, S. U., Ph.D., "What Will Happen to Paper and Board Demand in
the Next 25 Years?" Paper Trade Journal. Vol. 157,. No. 28, July 9, 1973,\
pp. 27-29. , X
138. Ruf, J. A., "Chemical Engineering Progress," Environmental Protection
Agency, New York, "Resource Recovery in Perspective," 69(9), September
1973, pp. 21-35.
139. Scudder, R. B., "Of Waste Paper, Virgin Timber and Environment,"
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140. Sverdrup and Parcell and Associates, Engineer and Architects, "Recycling
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November 1972, Volume V, p. 100.
141. The National Commission on Materials Policy, "Material Needs and the
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II of Public Law 91-512), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington
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142. White, Maria, "Environmental Awareness," Arkansas Game and Fish.
Vol. 5, No. 4,. Little Rock, Arkansas, Spring 1973, p. 24.
143. Wilson, A.W., Senior Editor, Pulp and Paper, "Pulp Price History Reveals
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1973, pp. 50-51.
ya!222
376
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