PB-237  619


A TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC STUDY OF WASTE  OIL RECOVERY,
PART II;  AN INVESTIGATION OF DISPERSED  SOURCES  OF
USED CRANKCASE OILS
TEKNEKRON,  INCORPORATED
PREPARED  FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION AGENCY
INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC  ADMINISTRATION

OCTOBER 1973
                            DISTRIBUTED BY:
                             NatM TGstofeaC OooOoiMliNi Smrict
                             U. S. DEPARTMENT  OF

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BIBLiOGRAPHIC DATA
SHEET
                    1. Report No.
                           EPA/530/SW-90C.2
4. Titlr and Subtitle
  A  TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC  STUDY OF WASTE OIL RECOVERY
  Part  II:   An Investigation of Dispersed Sources of  Used
  	Crankcase Oils          	      	
                                                                       5. Report Date
                                                                         October.  1973
7. Author(s)
  Peter M.  Cukor, Michael John Keaton, Gregory Wilcox
                                                                       8. Performing Organization Kept.
                                                                         No.
9. Performing Organization Name and Address
   Teknekron, Inc.  and The  Institute  of Public Administration
   2118 Milvia Street
   Berkeley, California  94704
                                                                       10. Project/Task/Work Unit No.
                                                                       11. Contract/Grant No.
                                                                         EPA Contract No:
                                                                         68^01-1806
12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
                                                                       13. Type of Report & Period
                                                                          Covered

                                                                         Final 1 year
                                                                         14.
 IS. Supplementary Notes
 16. Abstracts
   An  investigation of  dispersed sources  of used crankcaae oil.   A study
   of  consumer attitudes toward  recycling uaed  auto crankcase oil.
 MMtf^^M^fl»4IM^M*MWV^B^W^^H^^^***l«M^l**Ba*l»*V^BV^^H^MBW**BH4WW4WB^HB^^B*«V^^^^^^-—^^^V
 17. Key Words and Document Analysis.  I7a. Descriptors



    Secondary Oil Recovery,  Economic  Analysis
 17b. tdentifiers/Open-Ended Terms

    Waste oil re-refining,  recycling, re-refining  industry  analysis
  17c. COSATI Field/Croup
                                                                       Class (This     [ 21. "No. of Pages
                                                                 eport)                     r •»
                                                                   UNf. LASSIFIEP
                                                             20. Security Class (This
18. Availability Statement
                                                                Page
                                                                  UNCLASSIFIED
      NTIS-SB IRKV. 10-781   ENDORSED BY ANSI AND UNESCO.
                                                     THIS FORM MAY BE REPRODUCED     U»COMM-OC

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                    A TECHNICAL  AND ECONOMIC STUDY

                        OF WASTE OIL RECOVERY
Part II:  An Investigation of Dispersed Sources of Used Crankcase 011s
                This report (SW-90C.2) was written by
         PETER CUKOR, MICHAEL JOHN KEATON, and GREGORY WILCOX
     Teknekron, Inc., and The Institute of Public Administration
                    under contract no. 68-01-1806
                 U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

                                 1974

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This report has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Its publication does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation
for use by the U.S. Government.

An environmental protection publication  (SW-90c.2) 1n the solid waste
management series.

                                   1

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                     Notice
The report A Technical and Economic Study of Haste Oil
Recovery, prepared by Teknekron, Inc. and The Institute
of Public Administration under EPA Contract 68-01-1806,
has been published 1n three separate volumes under the
following titles:

A Technical and Economic Study of Waste Oil Recovery-
Part I;  Federal Research on Waste Oil From Automobiles

A Technical and Economic Study of Waste Oil Recovery  -
Part II;  An Investigation of Dispersed Sources of Used
Crankcase Oils

A Technical and Economic Study of Waste Oil Recovery  -
Part III;  Economic,  Technical and Institutional
Barriers to Waste Oil Recovery
                         ill
Preceding page blank

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                               TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0  INTRODUCTION	1
2.0  SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS	3
3.0  OIL PURCHASES AND TYPES OF BUYERS	9
     3.1  Purchase of Oil	9
     3.2  Who Are The Buyers?	11
4.0  WHAT KIND OF OIL IS PURCHASED AND WHY?	17
     4.1  What Grades of 011 Are Purchased?	,17
     4.2  Brand Name and Price	;.»		18
     4.3  Is Price Related to Quantity Purchased?	20
     4.4  A Semi-Technical Note	22
5.0  LOCATIONS AND REASONS FOR CHANGING ONE'S OWN OIL	23
     5.1  Where 1s the 011 Change Performed?	23
     5.2  Why Do They Change Their Own Oil?	24
6.0  DISPOSAL OF THE USED OIL AND PREDISPOSITION TOWARDS
     ECOLOGICALLY SOUND MEANS OF DISPOSAL	27
     6.1  How is the Used Oil Disposed?	27
     6.2  Predispositions Toward Ecologically Sound Means of Disposal	29
     6.3  Amount of Trouble Experienced 1n Used 011 Disposition	30
     6.4  Some Speculations	32
7.0  HOW MUCH USED OIL WILL BE RETURNED?	35
     7.1  What "Causes" Willingness to  Return Used Oil?	35
     7.2  Some Implications for Public  Management	40
8.0  ARE THERE OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING  WILLINGNESS
     TO RETURN USED OIL?	43
     8.1  What is a "Reasonable" Deposit for a Resealable Container?	43
     8.2  Does  "Ecology-Consciousness"  Affect Willingness
          to  Return Used  Oil?	44
     8.3  Does  "Conservation  Awareness" Account  for
          Willingness  to  Return Used  Oil?	45
9.0  A PROBE  INTO CONSERVATION OF  RESOURCES	47
     9.1  Government Certification	47
                                             Preceding page blank

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                     TABLE OF CONTEXTS  (continued)
     9.2  A Probe Into Semantics	48
ACKNOWLEDGMENT	s	51
APPENDIX A
     CONSUMER SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE	53
APPENDIX B
     THE SAMPLE	63
                                     v1

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                               TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1:   Purpose of Purchase.	9
Table 2:   Frequency Distribution of Annual Consumption
          of 011 for 011 Changes	11
Table 3:   Age and Annual 011 Consumption	12
Table 4:   Education and Annual 011 Consumption		13
Table 5:   Income and Annual 011 Consumption	14
Table 6:   0-Types Derived From Demographic Data	,	15
Table 7:   0-Types and Annual 011 Consumption	16
Table 8:   Grade of 011 Purchased	18
Table 9:   Factors in Oil Purchase Decisions	19
Table 10:  Most Important Factor 1n Purchase Decision	20
Table  11:  Most Important Factor in Purchase Decision
           and Annual 011 Consumption	21
Table  12:  Location of Oil  Change for Those Changing Their Own Oil	23
Table  13:  Reasons for Changing One's Own Oil	24
Table  14:  Most Important Reason for  Changing One's Own  Oil	25
Table  15:  Means  of Disposing of Used Oil	27
Table  16:  Annual Amount of Oil Disposed  of By Each Means of  Disposal	28
Table  17:  Annual Amount of Oil Disposed  of By Methods Requiring
           High vs. Low Degrees of Activity	29
Table  18:  Uater  and  Land Pollution Caused by Oil Disposal	30
Table  19:  Trouble  in Disposing of Oil	31
Table  20:  Trouble  Experienced By Various Means  of Disposal	32
Table  21:  Effect of  Amount of Disposal  Activity on  Trouble
           Experienced  in  Disposing of  Used Oil	33
Table  22:  Willingness  to  Return Oil  in Resealable Containers	35
Table  23:  Trouble  in Disposal and Willingness to Return Used Oil	36
Table  24:   Disposal  Activity  and  Willingness  to  Return Oil	37
                                      vli

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                        TABLE OF TABLES  (continued)
Table 25:  Willingness to Return By Trouble 1n Disposal and
           Actlv1 ty 1 n D1 sposal	39
Table 26:  Annual Oil Consumption (In Quarts) By Activity and
           Trouble In Disposal and Willingness to Return Used 011	41
Table 27:  Hypothetical Deposit Which Would Induce 011
           Return (In Cents)	43
Table 28:  Ecological Rating of Respondent's Means of 011 Disposal
           and His Willingness to Return Used 011	45
Table 29:  Buying Recycled 011 and Willingness to Return Used Oil	46
Table 30:  Respondent Willingness to Use Government Certified
           Recyc 1 ed 011	48
Table 31:  Respondent Impression of Highest Quality 011 for
           Different Terms	49

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                              TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1:  Passenger-Car Motor-Oil  Market	2
                                      1x

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      AN INVESTIGATION OF DISPERSED SOURCES OF USED CRANKCASE  OILS


                            1.0  INTRODUCTION
     Since the early 1960's the sales distribution of automotive engine
oil has shifted drastically from service stations to retail  stores which
sell major brands of oil at discount prices.  As shown in Figure 1, 1n
1961 service stations accounted for about 70 percent of all  sales of lube
oil for passenger cars while mass marketers accounted for just 7 percent
of this market.  By 1971, service stations' share of the lube oil market
had fallen to 45 percent.  Most of these sales were lost to mass marketers
whose market share had climbed to 28 percent.  By the late 1970's some  oil
industry officials expect that mass marketers will have cornered 40 percent
of all passenger car lube oil sales with service stations accounting for
only 35 percent of the market.

     This shift in lube oil sales patterns has also brought about a marked
change in the disposition of waste crankcase oils.  Formerly more than  80
percent of all used oils from passenger cars were handled by service sta-
tions, car dealers, or garages who, in the main, either paid collectors to
haul the oil away or received a payment from collectors for the waste oil.
The collectors would sell the used oil to re-refiners and producers of
asphalt or use the oil for highway maintenance and dust control.  At present,
less than 60 percent of these wastes are handled 1n this fashion.  Prior
to the present study no information was available as to the ultimate disposi-
tion of more than 40 percent of all used crankcase oils from passenger  cars.

     Indiscriminate disposal of used crankcase oils can lead to serious pol-
lution problems if  the oil is discharged to a body of water or if it is
dumped on the ground and seeps through to the water table.  In addition,  lubri-
cating oils are a valuable resource and are now in short supply.  Further,
the survival of many companies which re-refine used oils is being threatened
due to inadequate supplies of feedstock.

      In order to estimate the magnitude of dispersed sources of used oil, the
methods of used oil  disposal and consumer attitudes towards oil  purchases
(especially the purchase of  recycled oil), t  study was made of the purchase
attitudes and disposal  practices of persons who buy automobile crankcase oil
in discount stores  and  subsequently change  their own oil.   In cooperation
with West Coast Cormunity  Surveys,  Inc. of  Berkeley, California,  and Prof.
Francesco Nicosia of the  University of California at Berkeley, a  questionnaire
was prepared  and used  in  interviews with approximately  600  persons who were
buying oil at  discount  stores  in Oakland,  California.   A copy of  the question-
naire  is contained  in  Appendix  A of  this report.  The results of  the survey
were  analyzed  and  interpreted  by  Prof. Nicosia.   The results of  this analysis
form  the  basis  of  this  report.

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                                    Figure  1
                             Passenger-car motor-oil market
               Estimated size of market-SOO-milliw gal.
               Estimated share of market at retail: Q1961 Q1971
                  Service
                  stations


               Car dealers
              Garages, auto
              supply stores
                         45%j
JQ%|
                    Mass |'*'l.
                marketers
Source:   National  Petroleum News;  McGraw Hill, Inc; New  York;  August, 1971, p.54.

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                 2.0  SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
     In this survey consumers who change their own engine oil have been
Interviewed.  The main purposes of the Interviews were to identify the
ways these consumers dispose of the used o1l» to estimate the quantity of
oil disposed of in each way, and to probe Into the psychological predis-
positions that underlie the choice of different methods.  The stress was
on problems  concerning pollution, although some attention was given to
problems concernirig conservation of resources.

     The research design chosen was as follows.  "Discount" stores in the
Oakland, California,area, and a few in near-by areas, were selected on a
judgmental basis.  Permission from the store managers was obtained to
interview buyers of engine oil in the store.  598 personal Interviews
were obtained during the last three weeks of August;  1973.  The completed
questionnaires ( Appendix  A ) were coded and varifted:  key punching and
contingency cleaning were followed by data analysis.

     The structure of the analysis and the findings  are  presented  in the
report beginning  on page 9  .  The following section summarizes the results
of data analysis according to the areas Of Interest  explored.

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                    OIL PURCHASES AND TYPES OF BUYERS
     During the Interviewing days, 3,027 quarts of oil  were purchased.   Of
this amount, 774 quarts were purchased for adding only; 1,722 for oil  chang-
ing only; and 531 quarts for both adding and changing oil.

     On the basis of respondents'  estimates, the total annual volume of oil
purchases for oil changes only amounts to 13,300 quarts, for a mean of 27.4
quarts per year per respondent.

     Several demographic characteristics are related to purchases of oil--
age, education, Income, race, and type of residence (e.g. house or apart-
ment).  For example, respondents 1n their forties, with about twelve years of
schooling, and relatively higher Incomes (about 93 respondents) record a mean
annual purchase of 31.4 quarts; whereas subjects 1n their sixties* with about
10 years of schooling, and  relatively lower Incomes, record a mean purchase
of 21.9 quarts per year.

                 WHAT KIND OF OIL IS PURCHASED AND WHY?
     A very large proportion of the respondents buy "high reputation" oils.
For example, over 55% of the respondents bought brands like Pennzoll,
Quaker State and Castrol, and another 20$ bought brands such as Standard,
Shell, Chevron and Havollne (Texaco).  Furthermore, about 80% of the Inter-
viewees bought high quality, heavy duty oil  (API grades SC, SO, and SE).

     Brand name and lowest price are the most frequently mentioned reasons
for oil purchases.  Note, however, that those who buy larger quantities of
oil tend  to be less concerned with price than those who buy smaller quan-
tities of oil. A factor analysis of the "reasons for purchase" strongly sug-
gests that the respondents tend to buy oil directly from "discount" stores
1n order  to save money v1s-a-v1s the prices  prevailing at gasoline stations
and car dealers.  Yet among the brands available 1n such stores, the respon-
dents tend to buy the more expensive products.


              LOCATION AND REASONS FOR CHANGING ONE'S OWN OIL


     Over 80% of the respondents mentioned "home garage" or "street or drive-
way" as the  location where they change engine oil.  The most  Important reason
for doing so  1s cost (64%); "auto hobby" and "better for car" are the next
most Important reasons  (24%).

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           DISPOSAL OF THE USED OIL AND PREDISPOSITIONS TOWARD

                  ECOLOGICALLY SOUND MEANS OF DISPOSAL


     About 33% of the interviewees dispose of the used oil  by dumping it in
the backyard or elsewhere on the property.  The remainder of the respondents
dispose of their used oil in the following manners:  service  stations  (15%),
public dump (11%), storm sewer (11*), garbage can (10*), empty lots (3*),
and other means (17%).  The quality of oil disposed of by each of these means,
per year, follows the same order of Importance.  For example, 3,776 quarts
per year are dumped in backyards while 394 quarts per year are dumped in empty
lots.

     Some of the methods of disposal mentioned by the respondents require
more effort and activity than others.  About 40* of the oil is disposed of
by methods requiring a high level of activity (taking it to service stations,
public dumps, or empty lots).  Thus a significant amount of human energy
might be harnessed by a program concerned with returning used oil to central
collection facilities.

     Furthermore, those consumers who dispose of the used oil by high acti-
vity methods tend to experience more trouble 1n getting rid of their used
oil than those who use methods requiring a low level of activity such as
dumping the oil in backyards and storm sewers.


                   HOW MUCH USED OIL WILL BE RETURNED?


     The respondents were asked a hypothetical question:  "If all oil were
sold in resealable containers, how likely would you be to return your used
oil to a collection facility?"  The level of willingness 1s high:  35* said
they would definitely do so, and 30* said they would probably do so.

     However, experience suggests that responses to hypothetical questions
are not reliable.  The data analysis shows that the level of expressed
willingness varies a great deal according to two underlying psychological
factors:  (a) whether the respondents experience trouble with their present
method of disposal of used oil, and  (b) whether their method Implies a high
or low level of activity.

     More  importantly, the amount of used oil  that may  be returned varies
not  only  by the level of respondents' willingness but also by the amount
of trouble experienced and type  of disposal method. There  1s some evidence
that three variables may affect  "amount of returned used oil" 1n a
non-linear fashion.

     This  section  concludes with an  Illustration of  the wide range of esti-
mates of  the total amount of used oil that may be returned, and with  some

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suqqestlons of how this range may be narrowed.  There 1s a need for further
analysis 1f policy decisions are to be based on the prediction of how much
used oil 1s likely to be returned 1f oil  1s sold 1n resealable containers.


    ARE THERE OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING WILLINGNESS TO RETURN USED OIL?


     Factors which may affect the amount of used oil the respondents would
return to collection facilities have been considered.  Two variables were
derived — "ecology consciousness" and "conservation awareness" — but data
analyses, althouqh limited, show weak or no relationships between those
scales and willingness to return used oil.

     Another potentially very Important factor does not seem to be re-
lated to the likelihood of returning oil.  Me asked the Interviewees to
express what would be the minimum deposit charge that would make them re-
turn a resealable container.  Here 1t was found that those who buy large
volumes of oil are no more likely to mention a low deposit than those who
buy small volumes of oil; similarly, those 1n higher Income groups are no
more likely to mention a high deposit than those in lower Income groups.
Further analysis may clarify this lack of association.


                  A PROBE INTO CONSERVATION OF RESOURCES
     As mentioned above, the stress of the research design was on problems
 concerning  pollution.  Regarding conservation of resources, it was found
 that the willingness to buy recycled oil —  if government certified — 1s
 high:   57%  of  the respondents said that  they would definitely buy or prob-
 ably buy  (26%  and 31%, respectively).  Further analysis of this willingness
 is  advisable for here, too, the respondents  were reacting to a "hypothe-
 tical"  question.

      The study indicated  that  labeling of  recycled oil may be a  signifi-
 cant  factor 1n the  public's assessment of  Us  quality.  The  survey  showed
 that  the term  "re-refined"  implies  "high quality oil"  for 51% of the  re-
 spondents,  while "reprocessed"  implies high  quality  for 20%, and "recycled"
 for 13% of  the respondents.

                            CONCLUDING REMARKS
      In this  project,information about  two interdependent  aspects  of  the
 problem of dispersed oil  sources was  studied.   First,  it was  determined
 how much oil  is bought, what kind of  oil  is bought,  and how much oil  is
 disposed of by which method.  Second, the reasons  why  people  behave differ-
 ently were explored.  Associations were found  between  some demographic

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attributes of the buyers and their volume of purchases.  Associations were
also found among a few psychological variables, the current methods of oil
disposal, and the intentions to return used oil to central collection fa-
cilities.

     At different points in this chapter, possibilities for further anal-
yses of the what and the why of the respondents' behaviors and feelings
are indicatecTOther useful questions can be answered with the present
data base.

     For example:  Are demographic characteristics associated with differ-
ent methods of disposal?  Are Income and education related with scales of
"ecological consciousness" and "conservation awareness"?  Since the num-
ber of non-white and white respondents 1s nearly equal, and since 1t 1s
generally true that the two ethnic groups vary  1n Income and education dis-
tribution, do some of the findings for the entire sample vary substan-
tially in each ethnic qrou??  And, finally, can ways be found to limit to
a more manageable range the estimate of how much used  oil 1s likely to be
returned  if resealable containers  are  made  available?

     A word about generalizing the results of the study.  Appendix 38
(The Sample)  gives an idea of how closely the present  sample reproduces
some demographic characteristics of the Oakland area.  A natural question
is  to wonder  whether this area represents, say, the standard metropolitan
areas of  the  entire country.  Simple,  though time consuming, computations
can be made and  a reliable answer obtained.

     It  should  be stressed, however, that other more important factors
should be kept  in mind, concerning  both the ability to generalize the re-
sults and  any future studies that may  be undertaken.   First, evidence
seems to  show that both the what and why may depend on social-psychologi-
cal predispositions.  Thus a sample wTvfch 1s "representative" of age, In-
come, education  and race may not be representative of  other relevant
psychological variables.  This  1s a consideration which 1s all too often
overlooked and  may lead to misuses and misinterpretations of higher order
statistical analyses.   Second, different climates and  other environmental
conditions throughout the nation may well affect  the computation of  the
annual purchases and disposal of oil.  Finally, buyers were observed  only
during the last three weeks of August.  It  1s  probable that the volume
of  their purchases and  their uses of different methods of disposal may
vary throughout the year.

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                 3.0  OIL PURCHASES AND TYPES OF BUYERS
3.1   Purchase of 011


     The respondents  were buying oil for their cars and motorcycles* for
the following purposes:


                    TABLE 1:  Purpose of Purchase


               TO ADD OIL ONLY             43.5X  (260)

               TO CHANGE THE OIL ONLY      47.955  (284)

               TO ADD AND CHANGE OIL        9.0*  ( 54)

                                                   598
Of these respondents, twenty-four were buying oil to add to a second car,
twenty-nine were buying oil to change 1n a second car, and elqht for adding
and changing the oil 1n their second vehicle.  The "add and change" category
Includes both those people who will first add some oil and later change It,
and those who will change their oil first but have anticipated the need for
oil to  be added at a later time.

     Amonq those who bouqht oil only to add  (260), 73.8% (192) said that
they usually change the oil 1n their vehicle themselves.  Therefore, for
purposes of studying Issues related to the purchase of oil (e.g., consumer
attitudes with respect to recycled oil), there Is a total of 598 respondents.
For Issues dealing with the changing of oil  (e.g., modes of disposing of
used oil), there 1s an upper limit of 530 respondents (I.e., 192 plus 284
plus 54).

     The  total quantity of oil purchased by  the  respondents on the days of
the Interviewing was 3,027 quarts.  Of this  amount 774 quarts were used for
adding  only, 1,722 were used for  changing only,  and 531 quarts were used
for adding and changing.

     The amount of oil purchased, or poured  into engines, does not equal
 *   There were only 9 respondents  who bought oil  for motorcycles.

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the amount of oil  which is drained from engines during oil changes.  Some
oil is burned by the engine and is discharged to the atmosphere.  Therefore
the annual amount of oil used by each respondent for oil changes was comput-
ed by dividing a respondent's estimate of how many miles per year he and
his family drove a particular vehicle.by his estimate of the average number
of miles driven between oil changes.  This new quantity was then multiplied
by the respondent's estimate of the amount of oil required to change the
oil in this engine once:


       # of miles driven/year
	    amount of oil required  f  annual amount of
                               x to make an oil change      oil used for oil
# of miles between oil changes                              changes


This estimate was computed for all of the respondents with the exception of
those who never change their oil themselves, since their estimates could be
expected to be less accurate.

     The frequency distribution of annual amounts of oil used for oil changes
is shown in Table 2.
                                     10

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                               TABLE 2
             Frequency Distribution of Annual Consumption
                        of Oil for Oil Changes
          Total Oil Consumption*       Number of Respondents

              1-10 quarts                      89
             11  -  20                            157
             21  -  30                             82
             31  -  40                             46
             41  -  50                             22
             51  -  60                             23
             61  -  70                             11
             71  -  80                             17
             81-90                               4
             91  -  100                             9
             More than 100                        5
                Number of Respondents   =       465

     The estimates of annual oil usage for oil  changes were then summed
to obtain the total annual amount of oil  Involved  1n oil changes — 13,300
quarts.  The mean 1s  27.4 quarts per year.
3.2  Mho Are The Buyers?

     Who are the respondents who buy large versus  small amounts of oil
annually (relative to each other}?  Of course,  the size of one's vehicle
makes a difference.  But If vehicle size Is held constant, how does one's
* Estimates of less than 4 quarts and more than 125 are ex
                                    11

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age, education ar.d income correlate with the amount of oil used for oil chan-
ges annually?  Tables 3, 4, and 5 answer this question.
                                TABLE 3
                     Age and Annual 011 Consumption
Number of
Acje Respondents
18 &
19 -
23 -
27 -
31 -
36 -
46 -
Over
under
22
26
30
35
45
60
60
23
73
101
67
53
55
77
25
                                    Average Quarti
                                       20.985
                                       24.321
                                       28.701
                                       26.400
                                       29.668
                                       32.964
                                       31.409
                                       24.950
Total Quarts
    483
   1775
   2899
   1769
   1572
   1813
   2418
    624
 *Est1mates of less than 4 quarts and more than 125 are excluded.
                                     12

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               TABLE 4
Education and Annual 011 Consumption
Education
(years)
5
6
7
8
0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Number of
Respondents
10
6
6
12
9
21
21
153
46
60
33
42
55
Average Quarts
27.700
39.600
15.417
35.052
34.556
29.400
25,168
27.802
29.648
29.627
30.511
24.272
26.315
Total Quarts
277
238
93
421
311
617
529
4254
1364
1778
1007
1019
1447

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                                TABLE 5

                   Income and Annual  011  Consumption
Income

Under $3000

3000 - 4999

5000 - 7999

8000 - 9999

 10,000 - 14,999

 15,000 - 19,999

 Over  20,000
Number of
Respondents

    40

    32

    49

    73

   148

    74

    50
Average Quarts

    22.684

    22.243

    26.136

    28.114

    27.780

    30.497

    36.603
Total Quarts

     907

     712

    1281

    2052

    4111

    2257

    1830
     Some inferences can be made from these tables.  First, the relation-
ship between age and oil consumption 1s, 1n principle, complex.  The results
suggest a nonlinear relationship -- the largest consumers (In terms of av-
erage number of quarts used annually for oil changes) are those between 31
and 60 years of age, with both those younger and older consuming consider-
ably less.  In essence, large purchases coincide with the high activity per-
iod of a person's life.

     With respect to education, the relationship 1s unclear.  The largest
average users are men who have not completed high school, but Increased
education does not seem to bring lower oil usage, except, perhaps, for those
in the highest educational categories.  Further data analyses could clarify
this relationship (e.g., by considering the respondent's occupation).

     There  is a strong positive relationship between annual Income and oil
consumption.  With the exception of only one category, oil usage for oil
changes Increases steadily with Income.

     A typology (in Euclidean space) was computed of the respondents based
on their age, education, income, residence  (house/apartment), and ethnicity.
Four distinct types were found which differ significantly, particularly with
respect to  age, education, income, and annual oil consumption.  The four
types are defined 1n Table 6.
                                     14

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                                 TABLE 7

                   0-Types and Annual  011  Consumption
0-Type      Number of Members

  1                150

  2                 58

  3                 93

  4               283
Total Annual
Consumption

  3724.25

  1270.39

  2921.38

  7202.40
Mean Annual
Consumption

   24.83

   21.90

   31.41

   25.45
     From Table 7 1t 1s clear that there 1s a particularly large difference
1n the mean consumption figures for types 2 and 3.  Type 2 appears to be
composed of older men, with relatively low education and Income.  Respon-
dents with these characteristics would tend not to drive a qreat deal.  In
contrast, the members of type 3 are middle-aqed, most likely at the peak of
their earning power.  Although these respondents would tend to rely heavily
on their cars, both for commuting and leisure activities, they are also able,
because of their relatively high Incomes, to take care of their vehicles
and change the oil 1n them frequently.  Types 1 and 4 are marked by moderate
oil consumption.  Type 1 contains people who are over a decade older, have
slightly higher educational attainment, and have somewhat Mqh«r Incomes
than those 1n type 4.

     In sum, 1t 1s evident that relatively simple demographic characteris-
tics are associated with the quantity of oil bought.  Although -further ana-
lyses would be necessary to assess more precisely the Interactions among
such variables, the data strongly suggest that any program designed to af-
fect buying patterns would have to take these findings Into account.
                                     16

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               4.0  WHAT KIND OF OIL IS PURCHASED AND WHY?
4.1  What Grades of 011  Are Purchased?
     The present sample was drawn entirely from Individuals purchasing oil
from retail stores as opposed to service stations.  Although no data were
obtained on those customers who buy oil at service stations, 1t appears that
those who purchase their oil from retail stores are primarily Interested
in obtaining high quality oils.

     Over 55% of the respondents bought high reputation oil produced by in-
dependent oil companies (e.g., Pennzoil, Quaker State, Castrol, Valvoline),
and another 2Q% purchased oils bearing the trademark of a major oil producer
(e.g. Standard, Shell, Chevron, Havollne [Texaco]).

     Another indication of the desire for oil of high quality 1s the grade
of oil purchased.  The findings, shown 1n Table 8, indicate that over 80%
of the respondents purchased the highest grades of oil: API grades SC, SD,
and SE.
                                    17

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                                TABLE 8
                         Grade of 011 Purchased
SC and SE
SD and SE
SC and SD-SE
SE
SA or ML
SC or MS
SB and SC
Others - rated
Others - not rated
Number of
Respondents
    245
     96
     69
     68
     40
     21
     20
     20
      9
     5R8
41.7
16.3
11.7
11.6
 6.B
 3.6
 3.4
 3.4
 1.5
                                                       100.0
4.2  Brand Name and Price
     The  concern for high quality 1n oil  purchased was  further explored  by
determining  the criteria used by consumers  in choosing  among oils.  The
factors are  listed below 1n the order of  the frequency  with which  they were
mentioned (a respondent was allowed to  name several criteria):
                                     18

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                                TABLE 9
                   Factors 1n 011  Purchase Decisions
                                Number of times
Factor                          mentioned	       Relative Frequency
Brand name                            461                   56.3%
Lowest price                          199                   24.3
Viscosity                              69                    8.4
SAE rating                             12                    1.5
Recommendations of mechanic,
dealer, or manufacturer                13                    1.6
Medium price                            6                     .7
Recommendations of friends
or relatives                            5                     .6
High price                              5                     .6
Labeling*                               3                     .4
Other reasons                          46                    5.6
                                      819                  100.0
      Respondents were then asked to rank these factors  1n their order of
 Importance  1n deciding which oil to buy.  Whereas brand name was mentioned
 2.3 times as often as lowest price, brand name was selected as the most
 Important factor fn the purchase decision 3.1 times as  often as lowest price:
 *refers  to phrases  like  "meets  or  exceeds  all  car  manufacturers' warranty
  requirements"
                                    19

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                                 TABLE  10

                Most Important Factor 1n Purchase Decision
                                                  Relative Frequency.  %
                          Number of times
Factor                    mentioned
Brand name

Lowest price

Viscosity

SAE rating

Others
     These findings have several Implications for the marketability of re-
cycled oil.  First, since brand name (which we take as an Insurance of high
quality  1n the minds of consumers) 1s generally more Important than lowest
price, recycled oil produced by one of the well-known Independents or by
one  of the major oil companies may be able to gain acceptance.  Furthermore,
as 1s shown  1n Table 30 below, recycled oil would be most attractive to the
consumer 1f  1t  were also certified by the government as  equal 1n quality  to
 virgin   oil.
 4.3  Is Price Related to Quantity Purchased?


      Questions  arise  as  to whether  those who buy a great deal of oil annually
 are particularly Interested  1n  lowest  price and whether those Mho use re-
 latively little oil can  afford  to concern  themselves with maximizing quality.
 In other words, one might anticipate that  those who buy relatively more oil
 might mention lowest  price as the most Important factor In  their purchase
 decision more often than those  who  buy relatively less oil.

      Table 11 shows,  however, that, 1f anything, those who  buy  larger vol-
  umes of oil  are less concerned with buying oil on the basis of lowest price
 than those who buy smaller quantities  of oil.

      This finding could  be  Interpreted 1n  several ways.  First, large pur-
 chases of oil may indicate  high vehicle usage  (and, therefore,  a high degree
                                     20

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                                             TABLE 11
                            Most Important Factor in Purchase Decision
                                    and Annual  Oil  Consumption
                            Very Low               Low
Moderate
High
Most Important
Factor
Lowest price
Brand name
rx> Viscosity
SAE rating
Labeling
Performance
Other
Number of
Respondents
25
71
9
0
0
0
4
Number of Number of
% Respondents % Respondents &
22.9
65.1
8.3
0
0
0
3.7
27
84
2
2
0
3
7
21.6
67.2
1.6
1.6
0
2.4
5.6
27
83
7
5
0
5
10
19.7
60.6
5.1
3.6
0
3.6
7.3
Number of
Respondents
10
45
3
0
1
2
4
%
15.4
69.2
4.6
0
1.5
3.1
6.2
 *  The observed relationship is statistically significant at the 0.136 level.
 ow:   less than or equal  to  12 quarts  per year
 over 12 but less than or equal  to 20  quarts  per year
ite:   over 20 but less than  or equal to  50  quarts  per year
  over 50 quarts per year
r of Respondents • 436

-------
of reliance on the vehicle), which could explain the desire to maximize
quality rather than minimize cost.  Similarly, frequent oil changes may re-
flect meticulous car care; such an owner would probably want the best oil
possible for his car, regardless of price.  Further, 1t 1s possible that
those who buy greater volumes of oil own larqer cars, and therefore re-
quire more oil per change, than those who buy smaller volumes of oil.  In
any case, the major significance of this finding 1s that low price does not
constitute a powerful means by which to Influence those who buy a large
volume of oil annually.
4.4  A Semi-Technical Note


     The Identification and measurement of the reasons underlying people's
behavior are complex and time consuming operations.  They usually require
a number of "pre-tests" and data analyses before reliability and validity
can be established.  Although these operations were omitted 1n this study,
a factor analysis  has been performed for the responses 1n Tables 9 and 10,
separately.  Some  Interesting results were obtained.  First, price and
brand name measure with high reliability one "cognitive" dimension (I.e.,
reason)  1n the minds of the respondents.  Furthermore, price and brand are
negatively associated 1n this dimension.

     The results Indicate, however, that much more probing will be necess-
ary should one be  Interested 1n a more  precise identification of the re-
spondents' motivations and their effects on quality and quantity of oil
purchased by different types of people.
                                     22

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           5.0  LOCATIONS AND REASONS FOR CHANGING ONE'S OWN OIL
5.1  Where is the 011 Change Performed?


     One of the goals of this effort was to determine the following (for
those respondents that change their oil at least some of the time):  (1)
who changes the oil, (2) where 1s It changed, and (3) the reasons why the
respondent changes his own oil.

     Of the 531 respondents who buy oil for oil changes, 95* change the oil
themselves or have a friend do 1t.  Among this group of the 496 people,
there is substantial variation as to where they change their oil:


                                 TABLE 12

                     Location of Oil Change for Those
                          Changing Their Own 011
Location                    Number of Respondents       Relative Frequency. %

Home garage                          192                       38.7-K

Street or driveway                   209                       42.1

Service Station                       79                       16.0

Others                                16                        3.2

                                     496                      100.0


Since only 16% of those who change their oil themselves do it at a service
station, the vast majority of respondents probably experience some difficulty
In disposing of their oil.  They may not have suitable containers in which
to put their waste oil and may not know where to dispose of 1t.
                                     23

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5.2  Why Do They Change Their Own Oil?

     The most common reason given for changing and adding one's own oil was
the savings Involved.  As mentioned earlier an Individual's decision to
purchase oil at a discount store 1s motivated primarily by a desire to save
money.  Since nearly all service stations and garages charge persons who
purchase their oil elsewhere a significant fee for changing oil, little or
no savings would be realized by buying oil at a discount store and paying
someone else to change it.  Evidently, spending a little extra at the dis-
count store in order to obtain the best grades of oil 1s rationalized by
the savings which results from servicing one's own vehicle.

     Cost was not the only factor which people mentioned as reasons for chang-
ing their own oil, however.  One hundred and fourteen respondents (aid that
they changed their own oil because they enjoyed doing the maintenance work
on their car.  Convenience was also a significant reason, as was the belief
that  1t was better for the car.
                                TABLE 13

                    Reasons for Changing One's Own 011
 Reason                  Number of Times Mentioned      Relative Frequency, %

 Cost                              378                         56

 Auto  hobby                        114                         17

 Better  for  car                     87                         13

 Convenience                       55                          8

 Lower quality of  oil
 available at service  station       24

 Other reasons                      14

                                  672

      (a respondent  was  permitted  to  give  several  reasons)

      Persons  interviewed  were then asked  which factor was  the most Important
 in deciding to  change their own  oil.
                                     24

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                                TABLE 14
            Most Important Reason for Changing One's Own 011
Reason                       Absolute Frequency        Relative Frequency
Cost                                320                       64.6X
Auto hobby                           63                       12.7
Better for car                       56                       11.3
Convenience                          34                        6.9
Lower quality of oil
available at service stations        12                        2.4
Other reasons                        10                        2.0
                                    495                      100.0
As illustrated 1n the previous technical note, some further analysis of these
"verbal" responses should give a stronger Insight Into the psychological
meaning(s) and the statistical strength of these observed reasons.
                                     25

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             6.0  DISPOSAL OF THE USED OIL AND PREDISPOSITION
               TOWARDS ECOLOGICALLY SOUND MEANS OF DISPOSAL
6.1  How 1s the Used 011 Disposed?
     As shown 1n Table 12, over 80% of the respondents who change their own
oil change 1t either 1n their garage or 1n front of their residence.   The
following table Illustrates the means of disposing of the used oil:
                                TABLE 15
                     Means of Disposing of Used 011
Means                          Absolute Frequency      Relative Frequency
Dump 1n backyard or else-
where on property                    157                      33.6%
Take to service station               73                      15.6
Take to public dump                   54                      11.6
Dump 1n storm sewer                   53                      11.4
Dump 1n garbage can                   50                      10.7
Dump 1n empty lot                     16                       3.4
Pour down toilet                       4                       0.9
Sell                                   3                       0.6
Pour down sink                         2                       0.4
Use around  the house                   3                       0.6
Other means of disposal               52                      11.2
                                     467*                    100.0%
   *  approximately  fifty  respondents gave multiple  answers
                                    27       Preceding page blank

-------
     In addition to the number of respondents who use a particular means
of disposal, the annual amount of used oil which was disposed of by each
method was determined:
                                TABLE 16

                    Annual Amount of 011 Disposed of By
                          Each Means of Disposal
                                               Annual Amount, (quarts)

                                                        3776

                                                        2014

                                                        1663

                                                        1244

                                                         677

                                                         394

                                                         145

                                                           9

                                                        1858

                                                       11,780 (quarts)


      Note  that although pouring oil  into  the  storm sewer was mentioned only
one  time less than  taking  it  to a public  dump, the latter method of disposal
accounted  for about 33 percent more  oil than  the former method.  Consequent-
ly (and fortunately), those who use  the sewer are relatively light users of
oil  compared to  those who  take their used oil to a public dump.  Similarly,
those consumers  who place  their used oil  in garbage  cans also  appear to be
light users relative to both  of the  groups mentioned above.
                                     28

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6.2  Predispositions Toward Ecologically Sound Means of Disposal


     The means of disposal listed in Table 16 require different amounts of
activity from each respondent.  We can group these means Into those that
imply "high" or "low" activity as follows:


                                TABLE 17

              Annual Amount of 011 Disposed of By Methods
              Requiring High Vs. Low Degrees of Activity
                              (1n quarts)
High Activity Methods                         Low Activity Methods

Service station    2014                       Backyard       3776

Public dump        1663                       Storm sewer    1244

Empty lot            394                       Garbage         677

Sell               	9                       Toilet          145

                   4080                                      5842
      About 40% of the total  amount of oil was disposed of by methods which
 require a relatively high  level of effort.   It  1s  therefore possible that
 there 1s a significant amount  of  human  energy which might be harnessed  1n
 a  program of returning used  oil to a reasonably convenient collection
 facility.

      These figures also permit an examination of the  distribution  and amount
 of pollution generated annually by the  respondents.   (It has been  assumed
 that used oil which 1s sold  or returned to  a service  station creates no
 pollution.)

      011 dumped on the ground  will seep down and has  some chance of reach-
 Ing the water table, depending on location  of the disposal  site.  011  1s
 biodegradable, however, and  dumping  1t  1n thousands of backyards and lots
 1s preferable to concentrating 1t In one area,  as 1n  public dumps  (which 1n
 the case of Oakland are located quite near  San  Francisco  Bay.)  011 placed
 1n garbage cans ends up 1n the public dump, too.  Oil flushed  down the toi-
 let receives the same processing  as  sewage, which 1s  to say,  processing
 not designed for oil.  In some aroas,  the storm run-off and  sewage are
 combined 1n one system, but assuming that they  are not, pe«""*»"« nil down
 the storm sewer 1s the most ecologically dangerous form of
                                     29

-------
especially during the rainy season when the amount of run-off may exceed
filtering capacity.  Table 18 summarizes the data for the volume of oil
disposed of in environmentally harmful ways:


                                TABLE 18

              Water and Land Pollution Caused by 011 Disposal
              4,170 quarts are dumped in backyards

              2,340 quarts end up in the public dump

              1,244 quarts are dumped 1n the, stqrm sewer

                 145 quarts are flushed down the toilet

              7,899


6.3  Amount of Trouble Experienced in Used 011 Disposition


      In  addition to the 73 people who toolr their used oil to a service
station  after draining it at  home, tnere were  79  respondents who  changed
 their own oil  at a service station.  Whereas  these 79  respondents were
 generally omitted from the analysis  involving  the various means of  dis-
 posal, the existence  of  this  group should  be  kept in mind when  inter-
 preting  particular results.   For instance, the responses of  these 79  peo-
 ple were not included in  the  answers to  the  following  question:

                 How much  trouble do  you  have getting rid of  the
                 used  oil  -- is  it a  lot  of trouble,  quite a  bit
                 of trouble, a little trouble,  or  no  trouble  at  all?
                                     30

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                                TABLE  19

                       Trouble In  Disposing of 011
Amount of Trouble               Absolute Frequency      Re, 1 a11 ve Frequ ency

A lot of trouble                       15                      3.6*

Quite a bit                            16                      3.8

A little trouble                       70                     16.6

No trouble                            320                     76.0

                                      421                    100.0%
     Since, as 1s shown 1n Table 20, those who take their used oil to a
service station are the group most likely to say that they experience a
lot of trouble, we can assume that adding the 79 respondents who chanae
their oil at a service station would Increase, although not dramatically,
the estimation of the amount of trouble which consumers experience 1n dis-
posing of their used oil.  The point 1s not so nuch that 1n every case the
addition of this group would make a difference for the analysis, for 1n
this instance the association between means of disposal and trouble ex-
perienced in disposing of used oil is extremely weak, but rather that the
policy maker should be alert to the possible difference the Inclusion of
this group could make.
                                     31

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                                 TABLE 20

              Trouble Experienced By Various Means of Disposal
                                            Trouble
Means of Disposal      A lot      Quite a bit      A little      None
Sell

Service Station

Sewer

Toilet

Garbage

Backyard

Empty Lot

Public Dump

Other





5.1% 3.41
(3) (2)
2.4%
(1)
*• •

2.3% 4.7
(1) (2)
4.9% 1.4%
(7) (?)
7. IX
(1)
7.5%
(4)
3.6% 8.9%
(2) (5)
3.4% 3.9%
(14) (16)
50%
(1)
15.3%
(9)
11.9%
(5)
33.3%
(1)
25.6%
(11)
11.9%
(17)
14.3%
(2)
24.5%
(13)
14.3%
(8)
16.1%
(67)
50%
(1)
76.3%
(45)
85.7%
(36)
66.7%
(2)
67.4%
(29)
81.8%
(117)
78.6%
(ID
67.9%
(36)
73.2%
(41)
76.6%
(318)
 (  )  =  number  of  respondents


 6.4  Some  Speculations
      It  is  interesting  that while  some  respondents  engage  in considerable
 activity in disposing of  their  o1^  (e.g.,  taking  it to  the public dump),
                                     32

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very few people find 1t particularly troublesome to dispose of their oil.
There 1s some relationship between the amount of activity Involved In
disposing of the used oil and the amount of trouble experienced, but the
relationship 1s not particularly strong.


                                TABLE 21

             Effect of Amount of Disposal Activity on Trouble
                   Experienced 1n Disposing of Used 011*


                              Amount of Trouble

                A lot
Activity        Quite a bit       A  little       None      Total


High Activity      10                25            93        128
                     7.8%             19.5%         72.7%      100%

Low Activity       13                34           184        231
                     5.6%             14.7%         79.7%      100%

                                         Number of Respondents 359


High Activity:  Sell, service station,  public dump, empty lot
Low Activity:   Storm sewer,  toilet,  backyard, garbage

*  The  observed relationship 1s  statistically significant at the 0.15 level.


Whereas 27.3%  (7.8% + 19.5%) of  those engaging  in  high  activity means of
disposal  experience some trouble,  only  20.3%  {5.6% +  14.7%) of  those en-
gaging  1n low  activity  means of  disposal experience  some trouble.   The  re-
lationship exists  In the expected  direction,  but 1t  1s  not as strong as one
might have anticipated.

      Although the respondents do  not experience a great deal of  trouble  1n
disposing of their oil, this may be largely  at  the expense of the environ-
ment.   It 1s probably  not so much  a question  of people  not caring about
what happens to the oil as 1t  1s a matter  of  their not  realizing  where  the
oil  eventually goes.  We can speculate  that  they are unaware  of the eco-
 logical implications  of their  actions.

      Compounding  the problem 1s  the absense  of  a well-publicized  and feasible
means of ecologically-sound disposition.  Even  those who take their used  oil
 to service stations  may encounter  resistance since the  stations themselves


                                     33

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In some Instances must pay to have used oil  carted away.   Probably,  a  larqe
portion of the respondents who are able to change their oil  at a service
station or bring their oil there may be able to do this because the  service
station has special  facilities for user-performed oil  changes, they  are
friendly with the management or because they do 1t without the knowledge or
permission of the service station owners.  In sum, the consumer may  be rela-
tively unaware of the implications of his actions, and market forces may
not be structured to direct used oil Into ecologically-sound means of  dis-
posal.
                                    34

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                7.0  HOW MUCH USED OIL  WILL BE RETURNED?
     In this section, a few key questions for public management will  be
examined by Identifying some of the psychological  processes that may
describe the potential success of different options dealing with pollution
control policies.
7.1  What "Causes" Willingness to Return Used 011?


     How can public willingness to return resealable containers to a col-
lection facility be estimated?  To begin with, the level of willingness
of the interviewees 1s high, as Illustrated In Table 22:


                                TABLE 22

            Willingness to Return Oil in Resealable Containers
                            Absolute Frequency        Relative Frequency

 Definitely would                    210                       35.9*

 Probably would                      181                       30.9

 Might                              71                       12.1

 Probably would  not                 73                       12.5

 Definitely would  not               50                        8.5

                                    585                       100.0%
      Experience in conducting surveys has shown that answers to "hypothe-
 tical" questions have low predictive values.   The results in Table 22 can
 be analyzed by asking:  What factors may account for willingness to return
 used oil?  In Table 23 the amount of trouble that one currently experiences
 1n disposing of his oil  is positively related to willingness, but the re-
 lationship 1s not particularly strong:


                                     35

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                                TABLE 23

          Trouble in Disposal  and Willingness to Return Used  011*
                        A lot
Willing to Return       Quite a lot            A little       None


Definitely woulci           15                     32           118
                             50%                    45.7%         37.1%

Probably would              9                     24            96
                             30%                    34.3%         30.2%

Might                       4                      6            44
                             13%                    8.6%          13.8%

Probably not and
definitely not              2                      8            60
                             7%                     11.4%         18.9%

                           30                     70           318
                             100%                   100%          100%

*  The observed relationship 1s statistically significant at the 0.25 level.


     Since it has already been shown that the amount of activity involved in
disposing of one's oil 1s positively, although weakly, related to the amount
of trouble experienced (Table 21), 1t would not be surprising to find that
the amount of disposition activity 1s positively related to willingness to
return used oil.  Table 24 shows that this is in fact the case:
                                    36

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                                 TABLE 24

              Disposal  Activity and Willingness  to Return  011*
                                                Activity
Willingness to Return                      High          Low
Definitely would                           61            80
                                             47.7*         34.8%

Probably would                             41            70
                                             32.0%         30.4%

Might                                      11            36
                                             8.6%          15,7%

Probably would not
Definitely would not                       15            44
                                             II.7%         19.1%

                                          128           230
                                             100%          100%

Number  of respondents  * 358

*   The  observed relationship  1s statistically significant at the 0.015 level.


      Positive relationships among three psychological variables have been
established, but the casual nature,  1f any,  of  such relationships has not
yet been explored.  What  1s known at this stage can be represented 1n the
flow chart  below:
                                    37

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                 ACTIVITY
                 Involved 1n
                 lisposlng of
                 jsed oil
                               WILLINGNESS
                               to return used
                               oil to collection
                               facility 1f sold
                               1n resealable con-
                               tainers
fROUBLE
experienced in
disposing of
used oil
     Is the relationship between "activity" and "willingness"  simply due to
the intervening effect of "trouble"?  Or does "activity"  specify the con-
ditions under which the relationship between "trouble" and "willingness"
holds more or less strongly?

     If the relationship between activity and willingness were spurious
(i.e., due to the intervening effect of trouble), then the association be-
tween them would be wiped out for each of the two values of the variable
"trouble" (i.e., for "no trouble", and for "some or more trouble").  This
situation is presented in Table 25:
                                     38

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CO
vo
                                              TABLE 25

               Willingness  to Return By Trouble in Disposal  and Activity in Disposal


                                                          TrqubJ e
                                     Some  or More
                                 Means  of Disposa1
Will1ngness


Definitely would


Probably would


Might


Probably would not
Definitely would not


                               38               50                    94              188
Some
Means of
High Activity
24
63.2%
13
34.2%
0
1
2.6%
or More
Disposal
Low Activity
18
36. OX
19
38.02
7
14.02
6
12.92
None
Means of Di
High Activity
39
41.5%
30
31.92
11
11.72
14
14.92
sposal
Low Activity
62
33.02
55
29.32
30
16.02
41
21.82

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     The figures in Table 25 clearly show that the relationship between
activity and willingness is not spurious; 1n fact, It 1s specified by the
variable trouble.  When trouble 1s experienced, the relationship becomes
stronger; when it 1s absent, the relationship becomes weaker.


7.2  Some Implications for Public Management


     What are the implications for public management of the psychological
process which seems to underlie the respondents' willingness to return used
oil in resealable containers to central collection points?  This question
can be answered  by proceeding in two steps.

     First, the  number of respondents likely to return used oil must be
determined.  For example, 35% oT the Interviewees said they would definite-
ly do so  (Table  22}.  However, the relationships  established 1n Table 25
indicate  that this willingness depends on the amount of trouble experienced
and the activity implied by the methods of oil disposal.

     This  suggests  that  respondents who  said they were willing'to return
the oil may have a different probability of doing so.  To Illustrate, while
the respondents  who experience trouble and dispose of their oil by a high
activity  method  may be  very likely  to return used oil to a central collection
point  (24 respondents),  the respondents  at the opposite end of the scale
 (no trouble,  low activity) may be much less likely to do so (a total of 62
respondents).   The  same considerations apply to the  Interpretation of  the
other  degrees of willingness 1n  Table 25.

     All  in all, the  number of people who will  return used oil  to a  central
facility  may  differ substantially from the  verbal "hypothetical"  responses
recorded  in Table  22.   Further data analysis  could yield an estimate of
 the probability of respondents to do 1n  fact  what they  think  they would do,
 and thus  provide an estimate of  the size of the "good"  market segment.

      Now, step  two.   As in many  other  management  questions, the size of the
market potential depends not only on number of people but  also,  and  more
 importantly,  on the volume of  their purchases; that 1s, 1n this study, on
 the volume of used on  returned  to  the environment.   For Instance,  the 24
 respondents who may have the  highest probability to return their used oil
 may account for only  a tiny fraction of the oil consumed annually.   Table
 26 provides the required Information:
                                     40

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                                TABLE 26

       Annual  011  Consumption (In  Quarts)  By Activity and  Trouble
            In Disposal  and Willingness to Return Used 011
                                   Trouble
Willingness

Def. Would

Prob. Would

Might

Prob. Would Not
Def. Would Not
                        Some
                  Disposal  Activity
High
639
332
0
Low
482
278
132
  3

974
 145

1037
                             None
                       Disposal Activity
                       HTghCow
                                     1502

                                     1698

                                      772
1399

 918

 394


  486

 3197
Total Volume
of 011

  4022

  3226

  1298


  1776
                                                                10,322
     Table 26 Indicates that those who experience no trouble dispose of
more oil than those who experience some trouble.  Similarly, more oil 1s
disposed of by those who engage 1n little disposal activity than by those
who exert much energy.

     It can now be asked:  How much used oil will be returned to central
collection facilities?  The complexity of the information in Table 26
calls for a cautious answer.

     First, 1f the respondent's expressed willingness were to be "trusted",
one would predict that 4,022 quarts, plus some  percentage of 3,226 quarts,
would be  returned.

     Second,  if the willingness of only those respondents who experience
some trouble  and currently dispose of oil by hiqh activity methods were to
be  trusted, then one would predict that 639 quarts, plus some percentage
of  332  quarts, would   be  returned.

      It should be clear that other estimates are also  legitimate on  the
basis of  the  results in Table  26.  As suggested earlier, one way
to  narrow the range of possible estimates  is to compute first the  prob-
ability of returning used oil  for each of  the relevant cells  in the  table,
and  then  employ regression methods.

      In this  study, strong evidence  has been found  to  show that "returning
                                     41

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used oil" is a complex domain.  Further analyses are necessary if policy
decisions are to be based on the prediction of how much oil 1s likely to
be returned.

     The remaining part of this report adds further evidence supporting
this call for caution 1n Interpreting the data presented so far.
                                    42

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           8.0  ARE THERE OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING WILLINGNESS

                           TO RETURN USED OIL?
8.1  What 1s a "Reasonable" Deposit for a Resealable Container?


     The Interviewees were presented with a hypothetical question:  "If
there were  a deposit required for these resealable containers, what do
you feel would be  the minimum deposit charge that would make you return the
container?"

     Recall that the respondents' willingness to return oil explicitly
referred to oil 1n resealable containers.  Therefore, the Interviewees'
estimate of the "minimum" deposit acceptable to them will be Interpreted
as another  Indicator of  their willingness to return used oil.

     Twenty-one people gave  no  amount, and the others gave the estimates
recorded 1n Table  27:
                                TABLE 27

       Hypothetical  Deposit which Would  Induce  011  Return  (In Cents)
 Deposit                       Abs.  Freq.                     Rel.  Freq.,*

 1-5                             138                            27
 6-10                            136                            26
 11-20                            52                            10
 21-30                            82                            16
 31-50                            58                            11
 51-97                             8                             1
 98 or more                       45                           	9_
                                 519                           100

 Mean =24.5
                                     43

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     The amounts given are high when taken as  a  percentage of  the  cost
of one can of oil.  In a more comprehensive survey,  however, one could  ex-
plore whether consumers can appreciate that one  deposit,  in the long  run,
applies to many oil changes.  Note also that in  this study the respondents
may have answered the question thinking only in  terms of  one can of oil;
if forced to think about the number of quarts  used per change  (and therefore
the total amount required as a deposit), they  might lower their estimates.

     The responses in Table 27 have been examined by relating  them with
the interviewees' annual oil purchases and with  their incomes. No corre-
lations were found.  For instance, those who buy relatively  larqe  volumes
of oil are no more likely to mention a low deposit than those  who  buy re-
latively small volumes of oil.  Similarly, those 1n higher  income  groups
are no more likely to mention a high deposit than those in  lower  income
groups.


8.2   Does  "Ecology-Consciousness" Affect Willingness to Return Used  Oil?


      The data collected may give  further  insights into the respondents'
probability of  returning used oil.  Willingness  to return used oil might be
 influenced by one's  "ecology-consciousness".  Although no direct  measure of
 this  was  made in the survey,  one  may assume a latent connection between a
 respondent's  predisposition toward ecologically-sound waste disposal and the
 means by which  he currently disposes of his own oil.


      To  test  this, an  ordinal scale  measuring the extent to which various
means of oil  disposal  are  ecologically acceptable was  constructed.  The
criterion  for ecological acceptability was  the  probability of the oil
entering San  Francisco Bay.  Taking  one's oil to a  service station receives
the  highest  score because  it minimizes the probability of the oil entering
the  Bay.   While the  scale  is  specific to  the  San Francisco Bay area, simi-
lar  scales could be  constructed for  any given area.

      The  scale's categories  are as  follows:

 BEST --  selling or taking  oil  to  service station
GOOD —  dumping in backyard  or  empty lot
 FAIR --  dumping in garbage can  and taking to  public dump
 POOR --  flushing down toilet or dumping in storm sewer

      The relationship between this scale (an  ecological  evaluation  of means
 of disposal)  and willingness to return used oil can now be  examined.  As
 Table 28 indicates,  there  is  some association.
                                     44

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                                TABLE 28

       Ecological  Rating  of Respondent's Means of 011 Disposal and
                 His  Willingness to Return Used 011*
                            Ecological Rating
Willingness
Def. Would

Prob. Would

Might

Prob. Would Not
Def. Would Not

BEST
31
50*
20
32.3*
5
8.1%

6
9.7%
GOOD
49
31. 4X
44
28.21
25
16. OX

38
24. 4S
FAIR
45
47. 4*
31
32.6*
9
9.5*

10
10.5*
POOR
16
36.6*
16
36.6*
8
17.8*

5
11.1*
                  62          156           95            45

*  The observed relationship 1s statistically significant at the 0.025 level.
8.3  Does "Conservation Awareness" Account for Willingness to Return
     Used Oil?                  "


      Perhaps willingness  to  return used oil  reflects  one's  awareness
 of  problems of  conservation  more  than one's  awareness of  problems of
 pollution  (e.g.,  as  Indicated  by  one's means of disposal, and  the eco-
 logical  rating  of It 1n Table  28).   In other words, "Ecology Consciousness"
 could have both a pollution  component and  a  conservation  component, with
 only the latter being relevant 1n explaining differences  1n willingness
 to return  used  oil.

      The respondents were asked two  questions related to  awareness  of is-
 sues concerning conservation of resources.  The questions focused on  the
 respondents'  awareness of the availability of recycled  oil, and whether
 they had ever purchased recycled oil.

      Thirty-two percent of the respondents (191)  said that they knew that
 recycled oil  was available on the market.  However,  only  21.6* of these
                                    45

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respondents (41), or about 7% of the entire sample, said that they had ever
bought recycled oil.  Forty-seven respondents, or 7.9% of the total  sample,
thought that recycled oil was not available on the market.   The majority of
the respondents, 60.IX, did not know whether or not recycled oil was cur-
rently available on the market.  In sum, a minority of respondents knew of
recycled oil availability, and only a minority of these respondents ever pur-
chased it.

     If buying recycled oil Indicates a concern for the recycling of non-
renewable natural resources, it might serve as an Indicator of a respon-
dent's willingness to return his waste oil.  Table 29 shows the relation-
ship between these two variables:


                                TABLE 29

         Buying Recycled 011 and Willingness to Return Used 011*
                                Buys  Recycled 011

Willi ngness  to Return           Yes            No
Used Oil
Def. Would                      8             40
                                 32%            42.IX

Prob.  Would                     8             33
                                 32*            34.7%

Might                           3               9
                                 12X              9.5X

Prob.  Would  Not
Def. Would Not                 6              13
                                 24X             13.7%

                               25              95

Number of respondents a 120

*  The observed relationship 1s statistically significant at the 0.30 level.


     The number of respondents is too small  to make  strong statements but,
 if anything, those who buy recycled oil are less  willing to return their
used oil! Thus, no evidence was obtained of a positive association between
 conservation-consciousness and willingness to return waste oil  to a col
lection facility.
                                     46

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               9.0  A PROBE INTO CONSERVATION OF RESOURCES
     Although the survey focused on used oil as a potential pollutant,
a few issues concerning conservation of resources with reference to re-
cycled oil were also explored.
9.1  Government Certification
     The Interviewees were asked a question directly concerning consumer
acceptance of recycled oil; that 1s:
                If the government certified that the recycled oil
                you were buying was as good as the brand new oil
                you usually buy, how would that affect your wil-
                lingness to use recycled oil?


     The responses reveal a rather high hypothetical public willingness
to try government certified recycled oil:
                                    47

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                                 TABLE 30

     Respondent Willingness to Use Government Certified Recycled Oil
Willingness                          Abs. Freq.                Rel.  Freq.

Definitely Would Buy                    156                     26.3%

Probably Would Buy                      184                     31.0

Might or Might Not Buy                  112                     18.9

Probably Would Not Buy                   62                     10.5

Definitely Would Not Buy                 79                     13.3

                                        593                    100.0%
     Less than a quarter of the sample are negatively predisposed toward
government certified recycled oil.  One can most likely assume that govern-
ment certification is a crucial factor 1n getting consumers to try a re-
cycled oil, especially in light of the high concern for quality manifested
by the majority of the respondents (see Section 4.1).


9.2  A Probe  Into Semantics
      There was  a  great  deal  of  agreement  among  the  interviewees on which
 "name"  for recycled  oil  implies the  highest  quality.   Respondents were
 asked which  of  the following terms they would expect  to  imply  oil of  the
 highest quality:
                                     48

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                                TABLE 31
      Respondent Impression of Highest Quality Oil  for Different Terms


Name                            Abs. Freq.              Rel.  Freq.
Re-refined                         294                    51.5X
Reprocessed                        114                    20.0
Recycled                            75                    13.1
Reclaimed                           22                     3.9
Recovered                           21                     3.7
All mean the same                   45                     7.9
                                   571                   100.0%
The label "re-refined" has the greatest appeal probably because it
implies that the entire process of crude oil refining is repeated from the
beginning.
                                    49

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                 ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Teknekron, Inc. and The Institute of Public Adminis-
tration wishes to acknowledge the Resource Recovery
Division, Office of Solid Waste Management Programs,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for support of
this study.  In particular we are grateful to Dr.
John H. Skinner, Acting Deputy Director, Resource
Recovery Division and to the Project Officers, Messrs.
Thomas D. Clark and Laurence B. McEwen for their
guidance and assistance 1n the performance of this
research.
                                Preceding page blank
                         51

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         APPENDIX  A
CONSUMER SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
               53
Preceding page blank

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                                                          WCCS 386
                                                          August 1973
                          WEST COAST COM?J)UTY SURVTO
                               2268 Fulton  Strett
                          Berkeley, California  94704
                                                          (to:.

Store Mame ;

Street:                 _

City:     ___
Date of Interview:
Time Began:
                                     p.m.


Hello, I'm                         of Mist Coast Comwnlty Suraiys and !'• working
on a research study which Inrolvts diking to wen who buy Motor oil and I'd 11 kt to
ask you • few question*.
                                          55        Preceding page  blank

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1. A. What brand of motor oil (are you buying)
(did you just buy)? CIRCLE ALL THAT
APPLY. USE ONE COLUI-M FOR EACH, ASKING
B - H FOR ONE, BEFORE ASKING AOUUT NEXT.
IF 2 OR fKWE BKANDS MD/OH
GRADKS. USE EXTRA COLUMN TO
PERMIT SINGLE CODING
B. What grade 1s that? STAMPED ON LIO. IF
(ORE THAN ONE RATING IS GIVEN. CIRCLE
EACH. IGNORE STAMPED LETTERS OR
NUMBERS NOT LISTED IN COLUMN.
C. How much of this (BRAND ft GRADE) (are you
buy1ng)(dtd you buy)?
0. And what car or other vehicle are you
going to use this (BRAND & GRADE) for —
can you give me the make and year? IF NOT
FOR AUTO OR WTORCYCLE, THANK AND TERMIN-
ATE. IF 2 OR MORE VEHICLES, USE EXTRA
COLUMNS.
E. On the average how many miles per year
would you say you and your family drive
this (VEHICLE)?
F. (Are you buying) (Did you buy) the (BRAND
> GRADE) to add to your (VEHICLE), to
change the oil In your (VEHICLE), or both?
*G. IF ADD ONLY: Do you usually
change the oil In your (VEHICLE)
yoursel f ?
H. IF EVER CHANGES OIL:
a. On the average how often do you
change the oil 1n your (VEHICLE)
— about how 'many thousand miles?
b. How much oil does that usually
take?
c. Do you ever change your own oil
filter?
IF YES: Every how many thousand
Hies?
56
Pennxotl 	 1 '
Standard 	 2
Shell 	 3

Other (SPECIFY:
5

SA or HL 	 1
SB or MM 	 2
SC or MS 	 3
SO or MS 1968 . .4
se 	 5
No rating ... .6
quarts

Make
19

miles
per yt*r
Add Only .... 1*
Change Only. . . 2
Add ; Change . . 3
Yes (ASK H). . . 1
No (SKIP TO Q 2) 2
Changes every
miles
Qt*
Y., 	 1*
No (SKIP TO
02) 	 2
Changes every
milts

Pennzoll. . . .1
Standard. . . .2
Shell 	 3

Other (SPECIFY:
5

SA or ML. . . .1
SB or MM. .. .2
SC or MS. . . .3
SO or MS 1968 .4
SE 	 5
No rating . . .6
quarts

Hake
19

•fits
per year
Add Only. . . . 1*
Change Only . . 2
Add « Change. . 3
Yes (ASK H) . . 1
No (SKIP TO Q 2)2
Changes every
•riles
qts
yw 	 T
No (SKIP TO
Q 2) 	 2
Changes every
miles


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*. A. ASK ALL:
      MOM do you decide  which  oil to buy — do you 90 by prlct, brand naa»,  or what?
      CODE ALL THAT APPLY  IN FIRST COLUMN BELOW.
   B. IF MORE THAN ONE FACTOR MENTIONED:  And now I'd like VOH to rank thnt  factors
      in  t»« order of importance  to you In decldlne unfed oil to *«y.
      (Which ont 1* the wit 1n»rUnt?)  (Second?)
                                                      JL             _L.
                   Lowest price ............  1           _
                   Quality
                     Brand name ............  2                _
                     Viscosity (e.g.  10-30} ......  3           _
                     SAE rating ............  4           _
                     Labeling ............  S           _
                   Other (SPECIFY: _  6           _
3. IF ADOS ONLY.  SKIP TO Q 5
      IF EVER CHANGES OIL IN
      service station and nave then do It, or what?
    A.  IF  EVER CHANGES OIL IN 0 1:  Do you change the oil yourself, take 1t to a
                          na
                                           Do 1t nyself	1*
                                           Have service station do 1t	2
                                           Have dealer do  It  	 3
                                           Other (SPECIFY:	4*
       "iF DO IT  MYSELF OR DONE BY FRIEND/RELATIVE:	
       B.  Uherc  do  (you)(he/she/they) do 1t - 1n the garage  at (your)(their) house,
          on the street. 1n a drive-way, at a service station,  or where?
                                           Horn garage	1
                                           On street or 1n driveway	2
                                           Service station	3
                                           Car dealer	4
                                           Other (SPECIFY:	5
       C.  Nhy do you (change)(change and add) your own oil — 1s It because  1t costs
          less,  because automobiles are your hobby, or what?   CODE  ALL  THAT  APPLY.
          IF HORE THAN ONE MENTIONED;  Of the reasons you Mentioned, which would you
          say is the mi Important reason?  CHECK APPROPRIATE BOX.
                                                                              MOST
                                                                           IMPORTANT
                                           Cost	1         [   ]
                                           Convenience	2        [   ]
                                           Auto hobby	3        [   ]
                                           Equal to or better than
                                             oil at service station
                                             or car dealer 	 4
                                           Better for car	8
                                           Other (SPECIFY:	

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4.  If EVkH CHAK6ES OIL AVIAY  FROM SERVICE STA'-IOU OR OEAIER:
    A.  How do you eventually dispose of the  jsed oil  — do you sell It, take It to
        a service station, dump 1t 1n • sewer,  flush 1t down the toilet,.put it 1n
        your garbage can, take It to the d
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  C. If the government certified that the recycled  oil you were buying was as good
     as the brand new oil you usually buy, how would that affect your willingness to
     having recycled oil.  HAND CARD SCI D.   Which of these corns clomt to describ-
     ing whether you would or would not buy recycled oil If U were go»ei'm»ni etrtl-
     fled?
                                          A.   Definitely would buy	1
                                          B.   Probably would buy	2
                                          C.   Might or night not buy	3
                                          0.   Probably would not buy	4
                                          E.   Definitely would not buy	S
  0. If all oil — whether 1t was brand new oil or reprocessed oil — were sold 1n
     resealable containers, how likely would you be to  return your used oil  to a
     collection facility?  Pleast choose one of the categories on the card.
                                          A.  Definitely would return	1
                                          B.  Probably  would  return	I
                                          C.  Might or wight  not return	3
                                          0.  Probably would  not return	4
                                          E.  Definitely would not  return .... 5
   E.  If  there were  a  deposit  required  for these resealable containers, what  do you
      feel  would be  the  minim* anount  for a deposit charge that would take you return
      the  container?
6. Now a couple of background questions  about you and  I'll N all through -•
      A. Do you live 1n a house, an apartnent,  or what?
                                           House	1
                                           Apartment 	 2
                                           Other (SPECIFY:	3
      B. Do you own or rent?
                                           Own	1
                                           Rent	2
      C. Nay I have your age on your lut birthday!          	years of age
      0. And what was  the highest grade of school you completed?
         Less  than 6th grade  678
— H1 Sdwol —)
9   10   11   12
t— Colltgt	)
 13   14   IS   16
                                                                                    17+
                                             59

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E.  Please tell  ite which of these com closest to what you  do.   I Just need the
    Utter.  HAND CARD 6£.  (IF CURRENTLY UNEMPLOYED, CHECK  APfftOPXMTE KM MD
    ASK:  What 1i your usual occupation?)  (IF RETIRED, CHECK AffttfltlATC KM
    AND ASK:   Witt was your occupation before you retired?)

       [ ] UNEMPLOYED                A.  Small businessman  ......... 02

                                     ft.  Cl«rk/typ1st/secretary ....... 04
       [ ] RETIRED
                                     C.  Unskilled or Mnual ........ 06

                                     0.  Student .............. 08

                                     E.  Professional , technical ...... 01

                                     F.  Salesman .............. 03

                                     6.  Skilled crafts ........... 05

                                     H.  Farmer ............... 07

                                     I.  Armed Forces member ........ 09

                                     J.  Other (SPECIFY: _ ,_
 F.  And would you pick the Utter on this card that Indicates which IIKOM group
    you and your family art 1n.  Please count all sources of Income for you and
    the other members of your family living with you before taxes.  NMD CMD IF.

                                      A. Under $3,000 ............  1

                                      B.  13,000 -  $4,999 .........  2

                                      C.  $5,000 -  $7,999 .........  3

                                      D.  $8,000 -  $9,999 .........  4

                                      E.  $10,000 - $14,999 .........  5

                                      F.  $15,000 - $19,999 .........  6

                                      6.  $20,000 and over ..........  7

 6.  If you're Interested, we can make the report of our findings  available for
     you to look at.   And also my supervisor will  be checking  a  small percentage
     of my work at random.   In  case this interview Is  selected or  If you'd like
     to see the nsults of  this project, may I have your name, address and phone
     number?


     MMC:      _   PHME:      _


     ADDRESS I CITYi


 THANK R AND COMPLETE LAST  PA8C
                                      60

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Time ended:	

BEST GUESS OF  RACE FROM OBSERVATION:      Hhlte 	 1
                                        Black	2
                                        Oriental	3
                                        MixtcM	4
                                        Otb«r (SHCIFY:	5

INTERVIEWER'S  SIGNATURE:	
                                           61

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                                APPENDIX  B
                                THE SAMPLE
     The respondents,  interviewed in eleven retail  stores either in or adja-
cent to the city of Oakland, were males fifteen years old and above.  The age
distribution of respondents 1s generally representative of that of Oakland,
although young people are slightly overrepresented  and old people are slightly
underrepresented.

     The sample is not representative of Oakland with respect to ethnicity.
Forty-five percent of the respondents were blacks,  whereas only 34 percent
of Oakland's population is comprised of blacks.  Similarly, 4255 of the sam-
ple were whites, whereas 59% of Oakland is white.  The sample also included
29 orientals and 40 chicanes.  The roughly equivalent number of non-whites
and whites offers the advantage of allowing for statistically significant
comparisons of the two groups.  Although this possibility was not pursued
in the analysis, it could prove valuable in future studies.

     The sample contains a high number of well-educated respondents when com-
pared to the popualtion of Oakland.  While 29% of Oakland's male citizens
have attended or graduated from college, approximately half of the respondents
have this distinction.  This  1s probably related to the fact that the sample
contains a relatively higher  number of young people, but  1t may also reflect
higher average educational attainment of those people who change their own
oil.


     The sample  is roughly representative of Oakland in terms of annual  income
although lower  income categories  are slightly underrepresented.  For example,
while  21%  of Oakland's  population earns  less than $5000 annually, only 15.3%
of  the  sample  fell Into  this  category.

     Finally,  the  sample  is  reasonably representative of  those whose family
owns  their housing unit  versus those whose families  rent.  The  sample  is
slightly biased  toward  those whose families own  their dwelling units --  50.2%
of  the  sample  own  their  own  homes while  only 42.4% of Oakland  families own
their  own  homes.
                                     63
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