EPA
United States
Environmental
Protection Agency
Office of
Research and
Development
Energy, Minerals and
Industry
Washington, D.C. 20460

           WORK PLAN FOR COMPLETING
           A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
           OF WESTERN ENERGY
           RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
           Interagency
           Energy-Environment
           Research and Development
           Program Report

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                RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and'Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped-irito nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology.  Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:

      1.   Environmental Health Effects Research
      2.   Environmental Protection Technology
      3.   Ecological Research
      4.   Environmental Monitoring
      5.   Socioeconomic Environmental  Studies
      6.   Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
      7.   Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
      8.   "Special" Reports
      9.   Miscellaneous Reports

This report has been assigned to the INTERAGENCY ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT series. Reports in this series result from the
effort funded under the 17-agency Federal Energy/Environment Research and
Development Program. These studies relate to EPA's mission to protect the public
health and welfare from adverse effects of pollutants associated with energy sys-
tems. The goal of the Program is to  assure the rapid development of domestic
energy supplies in an environmentally-compatible manner by providing the nec-
essary environmental data and control technology. Investigations include analy-
ses of the transport of energy-related pollutants and their health and ecological
effects;  assessments of, and development of, control technologies for energy
systems; and integrated assessments of a wide range of energy-related environ-
mental issues.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                       EPA-600/7-78-012
                                       FEBRUARY 1978
Work Plan for Completing a
Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource Development
By
Science and Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma

Irvin L White
Michael A. Charlock    Martha W. Gilliland
R. Leon Leonard      Timothy A. Hall
Steven C. Ballard      Edward J. Malecki
Frank J. Calzonetti     Gary D. Miller
Mark S. Eckert        Edward B. Rappaport
Prepared for:
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 10460                        —^^^^H x-
                                       ^^ energy
Project Officer:                          m§^^m    t     ^/
Steven E. Plotkin
Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry


Contract Number 68-01-1916

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                           DISCLAIMER
     This report has been reviewed by the Office of Energy,
Minerals and Industry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and
approved for publication.  Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names
or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation
for use.
                                11

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                             FOREWORD
     The production of electricity and fossil fuels inevitably
creates adverse impacts on Man and his environment.  The nature
of these impacts must be thoroughly understood if balanced
judgments concerning future energy development in the United
States are to be made.  The Office of Energy, Minerals, and
Industry (OEMI), in its role as coordinator of the Federal
Energy/Environment Research and Development Program, is
responsible for producing the information on health and
ecological effects - and methods for mitigating the adverse
effects - that is critical to developing the Nation's environ-
mental and energy policy.  OEMI's Integrated Assessment Program
combines the results of research projects within the Energy/
Environment Program with research on the socioeconomic and
political/institutional aspects of energy development, and
conducts policy - oriented studies to identify the tradeoffs
among alternative energy technologies, development patterns, and
impact mitigation measures.

     The Integrated Assessment Program has utilized the
methodology of Technology Assessment  (TA) in fulfilling its
mission.  The Program is currently sponsoring a number of TA's
which explore the impact of future energy development on both
a nationwide and a regional scale.  For instance, the Program
is conducting national assessments of future development of the
electric utility industry and of advanced coal technologies
(such as fluidized bed combustion).  Also, the Program is
conducting assessments concerned with multiple-resource develop-
ment in three "energy resource areas":

                    o Western coal states
                    o Lower Ohio River Basin
                    o Appalachia

     This report represents a work plan for completing the final
phase of the Western assessment.   This phase involves conducting
extensive analysis of alternatives for eliminating or reducing
adverse impacts of energy development, and completing impact
assessment work begun in the fi£?t phase of the project.

                                     ^- $^ L
                             Steven R. Reznlek
                   Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator
                    for Energy, Minerals, and Industry
                            111

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                             PREFACE
     This is a Work Plan for completing a "Technology Assessment
of Western Energy Resource Development" being conducted by an
interdisciplinary research team from the Science and Public Policy
Program (S&PP) of the University of Oklahoma for the Office of
Energy, Minerals and Industry (OEMI), Office of Research and
Development, U.S."Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under con-
tract No.  68-01-1916.  This technology assessment (TA)  is one of
several being conducted under the Integrated Assessment Program
established by OEMI in 1975.  Recommended by an interagency task
force, the purpose of the Program is to identify economically,
environmentally, and socially acceptable energy development alter-
natives.  The overall purposes of this particular TA are to iden-
tify and analyze a broad range of consequences of energy resource
development in the western U.S.  and to evaluate and compare alter-
native courses of action for enhancing desirable consequences and
mitigating or eliminating undesirable ones.

     The development of six energy resources (coal, geothermal,
natural gas, oil, oil shale, and uranium) in an eight-state area
(Arizona,  Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota,  South
Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) is to be assessed.  The time frame for
the assessment is the period 1975 to 2000; however, selected
impacts resulting from shutting down energy developments beyond
2000 are also analyzed.

     The Project Director is Irvin L.  (Jack) White, Assistant
Director of S&PP and Professor of Political Science at the Univer-
sity of Oklahoma.  Steven E. Plotkin, Office of Energy, Minerals
and Industry, in EPA's Office of Research and Development, is the
EPA Project Officer.  Michael A. Chartock, Assistant Professor of
Zoology and Research Fellow in S&PP, and R. Leon Leonard, Asso-
ciate Professor of Aeronautical, Mechanical, and Nuclear Engineer-
ing  and  Research Fellow in S&PP, are Co-Directors of the
research team.  S&PP team members are: Steven C. Ballard, Visiting
Assistant Professor of Political Science; Martha W. Gilliland,
Systems Ecologist; Edward J. Malecki, Assistant Professor of Geog-
raphy; Edward B. Rappaport, Visiting Assistant Professor of Eco-
nomics; Timothy A. Hall, Graduate Research Assistant (Political
Science),  Gary D. Miller, Graduate Research Assistant  (Civil
Engineering and Environmental Sciences); Frank J. Calzonetti,
Graduate Research Assistant (Geography); and Mark S. Eckert,
                                IV

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Graduate Research Assistant  (Geography).  Professors Ballard,
Malecki, and Rappaport are also Research Fellows in S&PP.

     Three subcontractors are assisting in the completion of the
study:  Radian Corporation, Austin, Texas; Water Purification
Associates, Cambridge, Massachusetts? and the Federation of Rocky
Mountain States, Denver, Colorado.

     This Work Plan supplements and  extends, Irvin L. White,
et al., First Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource Development.'1  Extensions and refinements
to the impact analyses described in that report are described in
Chapter 2; policy analyses, the major focus of the final year of
the study, are described in Chapter 3.
     1White, Irvin L., et al.  First Year Work Plan for a Tech-
nology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S'. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.

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                            ABSTRACT
     This is a Work Plan for completing a three-year technology
assessment of the development of six energy resources  (coal,
geothermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale, and uranium) in eight
western states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North
Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming).  The time period covered
by the study is 1975-2000.  The five chapters of the Work Plan
describe:  (1) the study and its objectives;  (2) the impact
analyses to be conducted to extend and refine impact analyses
results reported in Irvin L. White, et al.  Energy From the West:
A Progress Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy
Resource Development, 4 vols. and Executive Summary.  Washington,
D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.   (EPA-600/7-77-
072a-d);   (3) how policy analyses are conducted in a technology
assessment generally and in this western energy study specifically;
(4) the background and supporting materials reports that are also
to be published as a product of the study;  (5)  the final tech-
nology assessment report;   (6)  the timetable for completing the
study; and   (7) regional activities to stimulate participation
and utilization.   This Work Plan supplements and extends Irvin L.
White, et al.  First Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment
of Western Energy Resource Development.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.
                                VI

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                        TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                             Page
Disclaimer                                                     ii
Foreword                                                      iii
Preface                                                        iv
Abstract                                                       vi
List of Figures                                                ix
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations                              x
Acknowledgements                                               xi


CHAPTER 1:  BACKGROUND AND ORGANIZATION                         1

1.1  INTRODUCTION                                               1
1.2  PROGRESS TO DATE                                           3
1.3  PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS WORK PLAN                 6

CHAPTER 2:   IMPACT ANALYSIS                                     7

2.1  INTRODUCTION                                               7
2.2  LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT                                      8
2.2.1  Coal                                                     9
2.2.2  Oil Shale                                               10
2.2.3  Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium and Geothermal                10
2.3  EXTENSIONS AND REFINEMENTS                                11
2.3.1  Added Development Alternatives                          11
2.3.2  Changes Within Impact Analysis Categories               14
2.4  INTERACTIVE EF7ECTS                                       27
2.5  UNCERTAINTY                                               27
2.6  REPORTING THE RESULTS OF IMPACT ANALYSES                  28
                          I
CHAPTER 3:  POLICY ANALYSIS                                    29

3.1  INTRODUCTION                                              29
3.2  TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS APPLIED POLICY ANALYSIS          30
3.2.1  Technical Analysis                                      30
3.2.2  Policy Analysis                                         32
3.2.3  Overlap and Interaction of Technical and
       Policy Analyses                                         38
3.3  POLICY ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN ENERGY STUDY               39
3.3.1  Introduction                                            39
3.3.2  The Identification and Definition of Problems and
       Issues in Western Energy Resource Development           39


                               vii

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3.3.3  The Description and Political Context of Issues
       Associated With the Development of Western
       Energy Resources                                        45
3.3.4  The Identification, Definition, Evaluation, and
       Comparison of Alternative Policies and
       Implementation Strategies                               46
3.3.5  The Policy Analysis Report                              47

CHAPTER 4:  REPORTS                                            4 8

4.1  INTRODUCTION                                              48
4.2  BACKGROUND AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS REPORTS               48
4.2.1  Energy Resource Development Systems                     48
4.2.2  Impact Analysis Report                                  48
4.2.3  Policy Analysis Report                                  49
4.2.4  Data and Research Adequacy Report                       49
4.2.5  Information File Report                                 51
4.2.6  Subcontractor Reports                                   51
4.3  FINAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORT                        52
4.4  TIMETABLE FOR COMPLETING THE PROJECT                      52
CHAPTER 5:  REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND UTILIZATION                55

5.1  INTRODUCTION                                              55
5.2  UTILIZATION AND FEEDBACK EFFORTS                          55
                               Vlll

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                         LIST OF FIGURES
                                                             Page
3-1   A Conceptual Framework                                   31.
3-2   Policy Analysis:  Step 1                                 33
3-3   Policy Analysis:  Step 2                                 35
3-4   Policy Analysis:  Step 3                                 37
4-1   Integrating Background and Supporting Materials
      Into the Final TA Report                                 53
4-2   Timetable for Completing Project Reports                 54

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               LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
BACT
bbl/d
CaC03
EPA
ERDS
ESP
FPC
MMtpy
MWe
NSD
OEMI
PSD
RFP
SEAM
SEAS
S02
S&PP
SRI
TA
TSP
WPA
best available control technology
barrel(s) per day
calcium carbonate
Environmental Protection Agency
Energy Resource Development System(s)
electrostatic precipitator
Federal Power Commission
milligrams per liter
million tons per year
megawatt-electric
Non-Significant Deterioration
Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry
Prevention of Significant. Deterioration
request for proposal
Surface Environment and Mining Program
Strategic Environmental Assessment System
sulfur dioxide
Science and Public Policy Program
Stanford Research Institute
technology assessment
total suspended particulate
Water Purification Associates
                                x

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                        ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
     The research reported here could not have been completed with-
out the assistance of a dedicated administrative support staff.
In a very real sense, these persons are an integral part of the
interdisciplinary team approach to technology assessment described
in the report.  This staff is headed by Janice K. Whinery, Project
Specialist, and includes:  Sharon S. Pursel, Clerical Supervisor;
Karen M. Hammers, Mary L. Bell, Brenda Skaggs, and Ellen Ladd,
secretaries; Martha Jordan, Head Research Team Assistant; David
Sage and Thomas Young, Research Team Assistants.  Kathy Stephenson
and Sheila Peterson contributed at an earlier stage of preparation
of this report.  Nancy Ballard designed the title page.

     An Advisory Committee, several consultants and subcontrac-
tors have assisted the team.  The names of the members of the
Advisory Committee, consultants, and subcontractors are listed
separately below.  Others who have assisted are too numerous to
list here.  Needless to say, no member of the Advisory Committee,
consultant, subcontractor or any other individual or agency is
responsible for the content of this Work Plan.  The Work Plan is
the sole responsibility of the interdisciplinary research team
conducting this study.


                       ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Mr. John Bermingham
Attorney
Denver, Colorado
(formerly Regional Represqn-
tative for the Secretary, U.S,
Department of Commerce)

Governor Jack Campbell
President
Federation of Rocky Mountain
  States
Denver, Colorado

Ms. Sharon Eads
Attorney
Native American Rights Fund
Boulder, Colorado
Dr. Thadis W. Box
Dean
College of Environmental Studies
Utah State University
Logan, Utah
Mr. Bill Conine
Environmentalist
Energy Minerals—U.S. and Canada
Mobil Oil Corporation
Denver, Colorado

Mr. Michael B. Enzi
Mayor
Gillette, Wyoming
                                XI

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Dr. Raphael Moure
Industrial Hygienist
Oil, Chemical, and Atomic
  Workers Union
Denver, Colorado
Mr. Robert Richards
Field Project Supervisor
Kaiser Industries
Sunnyside, Utah

Mr. Warren Schmechel
President and Chief Operating
  Officer
Western Energy Company
Butte, Montana
Mr. Bruce Pasternack
Booz, Allen, Hamilton
Bethesda, Maryland
(formerly Assistant Adminis-
trator, Policy and Program
Evaluation, Federal Energy
Administration,
Washington, D.C.)

Mr. Anthony Ruckel
Regional Lawyer
Sierra Club Legal Defense Fund
Denver, Colorado

Mr. Vernon Valantine
Colorado River Board of
  California
Los Angeles, California
                           CONSULTANTS
Professor A. Berry Crawford
Western Governors' Policy Office
Denver, Colorado
Professor Charles O. Jones
Department of Political Science
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Professor Gerald Garvey
Department of Politics
Princeton University
Princeton, New Jersey

Dr. John Reuss
Director of Science and
  Technology
National Conference of State
  Legislatures
Denver, Colorado
                         SUBCONTRACTORS
Federation of Rocky Mountain
  States (now a part of The
  Western Governors'  Policy
  Office)
(Phillip Burgess, Vice
  President and Executive
  Director)
Denver, Colorado
Princeton University
(Gerald Garvey, Center of
  International Studies)
Princeton, New Jersey
                               xix

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Radian Corporation
(Pat Bartosh, Assistant
  Vice President)
Austin, Texas
Water Purification Associates
(Harris Gold, Project Manager;
  and Ronald Probstein, Senior
  Partner)
Cambridge, Massachusetts
                               EPA
Steven E. Plotkin
Project Officer
Office of Energy, Minerals,
  and Industry
Office of Research and
  Development
Washington, B.C.
Terry Thoem
Office of Energy Activities
EPA Region VIII
Denver, Colorado
                               Kill

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                             CHAPTER 1

                    BACKGROUND AND ORGANIZATION
 1.1  INTRODUCTION
      In March,  1975,  the .U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency
 (EPA)  issued a  request for proposal (RFP)  for "A Technology
Assessment  of Western Energy Resource  Development."   Given a
national policy of reducing dependence on  energy imports, the  sub-
stantial and diverse  energy resources  located in the  western U.S.
make  it a prime candidate for rapid large-scale  energy  develop-
ment.   In fact, energy development plans already announced for
the region  make large-scale development appear imminent.  EPA's
RFP was largely motivated by recognition that development of the
region's energy resources will inevitably  produce a broad range
of economic,  social,  environmental, and institutional consequences,
not only locally,  but nationally  and internationally  as well.

     As stated  in  the RFP,  EPA's  purpose is to have an  integrated
assessment  of alternative energy  resource  development activities,
facilities,  and operations  in  the western  U.S.  (excluding offshore
and Alaskan activities)  performed.   This assessment is  to go
beyond  a traditional  examination  of primary impacts by  identifying
and, to the extent feasible,  quantifying "interactions, side
effects,  spillovers,  and tradeoffs  among several energy techno-
logies  and  other aspects of living."l   EPA indicated  that the
results of  this 36-month assessment would  be  used to  help the
agency  develop  its environmental  control policies and implemen-
tation  strategies  as  they apply to  western energy resource
development.

     Beginning  with the  proposal  submitted in response  to EPA's
RFP, the  Science and  Public Policy  Program (S&PP)  interdiscipli-
nary research team has assumed that the achievement of  EPA's pur-
pose requires the  assessment of impacts and policies  at all juris-
dictional levels ranging from  local to national.   EPA has agreed
with this broad interpretation and  with the more  general restate-
ment of the overall purposes of the project.  These are to:
(1)  identify  a  broad  range  of  consequences  likely to  result from


     1Quoted by EPA from Kiefer, David M.    "Technology Assess-
ment."  Chemical Engineering News,  Vol. 48  (October 5,  1970),
pp.  42-56.

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various patterns, rates, and levels of development of six energy
resources in eight western states; and (2) identify, evaluate, and
compare alternative policies and implementation strategies for
dealing with these consequences.1  The six resources are coal, geo-
thermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale, and uranium.2  The eight
states are Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.  Coal resource development
receives more attention than does the development of the other
five resources.3

     Despite the broad interpretation of what is required to
achieve EPA's purposes, the assessment is structured to be respon-
sive to EPA's charge that the study team produce results that can
be used to help the agency develop and/or modify its environmental
control policies, programs, and implementation strategies.  For
example, although EPA needs to be broadly informed concerning
local, state, and regional problems in order to insure that its
own program for dealing with these same impacts are responsive
and effective, the S&PP interdisciplinary research team will not
attempt to perform.a detailed analysis of alternative policies and
implementation strategies for each of these levels of government.
However, in some cases such as water rights and air quality stan-
dards, other levels of government are 59 intimately involved in
dealing with impacts that the problems for these levels of govern-
ment will have to be analyzed in some detail.  Three criteria are
used to determine which problems and issues are to be analyzed in
detail.  The three are:  does EPA have responsibility and

     1It is beyond the scope of this study to analyze the
"driving forces" that will affect the levels and patterns of
development that take place.  Our more limited purpose is to pro-
vide information on the consequences that can be expected if
various levels and patterns of development do take place.  How-
ever, our progress report, Energy From the West, briefly dis-
cusses some of these driving forces; and our final report to EPA
will also discuss these forces and how they have, are, and may
affect the development of western energy resources.  See White,
Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  A Progress Report of a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development,
4 vols. and Executive Summary"^Washington, D.C. :  U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency, 1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-072a-d)

     2Other energy resources such as solar are excluded.  Their
development can, of course, affect the development of these six
resources.  However, the purpose of this study is not to forecast
levels of development but to determine the likely consequences
of several levels and patterns of development.

     3Coal is emphasized because of"its short- to mid-term
importance in current and proposed policies, the large quantities
of it that are present in the study area, and the numerous ways
that it can be used.

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authority for dealing with the problem or issue (for example,
problems and issues arising as a consequence of air and water
quality impacts); does the problem or issue affect or are they
affected by existing EPA policies and programs (for example, the
discharge of water effluents into on-site holding ponds, though
currently viewed by EPA as being outside its jurisdiction, may
affect surface and ground water quality); and is the duration,
magnitude, or seriousness of the problem or issue so great that
the future of western energy resource development might be
affected?  (For example, some local planning and growth management
problems such as the timing and distribution of revenues for pro-
viding community services and facilities may have this effect.)

     In applying all three criteria, members of the interdiscipli-
nary research team will exercise their collective best judgment
particularly in applying the third criterion.1  Extensive external
review by EPA, other federal agencies, state and local officials,
and a broad range of parties interested in western energy resource
development will provide a check on the team's choices.  This
external review process, a key element in S&PP's approach to tech-
nology assessment, is described in Chapter 5 of the initial Work
Plan for this project.2

1.2  PROGRESS TO DATE

     Two reports have been published by the team to date: a First
Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy
Resource Development;3 and Energy From the West:  A Progress
     *As several reviewers of a draft of this Work Plan have noted,
trusting the judgment of the interdisciplinary core team is an
essential and inescapable element in this approach.  We agree.
This is why we submit the team's research products to such exten-
sive external critical review by both substantive experts and rep-
resentatives of the broad range of interests and values that are
at stake.  A major reason '.for this extensive external review pro-
cess is to insure that the team's collective expertise, judgment,
biases, and limits in perspective are identified, evaluated, and
taken into account.  This helps potential users of the team's
research product to decide whether the team should be trusted and
to establish the team's credibility.

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  First Year Work Plan for a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.
(EPA-600/5-76-001, NTIS order #PB-252 034/AS)

     3Ibid.

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Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development.*The First Year Work Plan describes the team's
approach and conceptual framework.  Impact analysis categories,
methods, and procedures are also described; and the team's
approach and procedures for policy analysis are briefly outlined.

     Energy From the West presents the results of analyses com-
pleted during the first phase of the project.  Although the team's
initial emphasis on impact analysis is reflected in this progress
report, the results of preliminary efforts to identify and define
selected policy problems and issues are also reported.

     The S&PP research team, Radian, and other subcontractors have
produced several other products.  These include draft energy
resource development systems (ERDS)2 descriptions for the six
resources being studied.  As discussed in the First Year Work Plan,
the primary purpose of the ERDS is to describe the technologies,
their input requirements, their outputs, and the federal and state
rules and regulations that control their use.3  These ERDS contain
baseline data that were required before impact analyses could
begin. **  Technology descriptions for all six resource systems have
been completed and are being reviewed by experts in industry, gov-
ernment, universities, and research companies.  The required data
on federal and state rules and regulations have been integrated
into the descriptions of the technologies.  This ERDS report will
be distributed in early 1978.
     1White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  A Progress
Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development, 4 vols., and Executive Summary.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-072a-d)

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy Resource Development
Systems for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming.

     3Rules and regulations for only the eight states in our study
area are included.  As indicated earlier, the eight are:  Arizona,
Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah,
and Wyoming.

     ''The ERDS did provide the required baseline data.  However
for the ERDS report to serve its intended function as a reference
book for planning, additional data have been added.  Adding these
data has delayed publication.  The ERDS draw from a number of pre-
vious reports including:  University of Oklahoma, Science and
Public Policy Program.  Energy Alternatives;  A Comparative Anal-
ysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975; and
Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy Development Study,
3 vols. and summary.   Austin, Texas:  Radian Corporation, 1975.

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     Two reports have been prepared by subcontractors.  The first,
prepared by Michael Rieber and Shao Lee Soo of the Center for
Advanced Computation at the University of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign, reports the results of an analysis of Route Specific
Cost Comparisons:  Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra
High Voltage Transmission.1The second,a report of Water
Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic
Fuel Plants in the Western United States, was prepared by Water
Purification Associates of Cambridge, Massachusetts.2

     A report entitled Scenario Run Analysis:  Western Energy
Development3 describes the analysis of three western energy
development scenarios used in the regional and national economic
and materials and equipment analyses reported in Energy From the
West.  The three scenarios were analyzed using EPA's Strategic
Environmental Analysis System  (SEAS).  Prepared by Control Data
Corporation and International Research and Technology Corporation
for the Technical Information Division of EPA's Office of Research
and Development, this report is available as a separate contrac-
tor's report.

     A separate data and research adequacy report is also being
prepared by the S&PP research team.  This report, which will focus
on the problem of making policy choices under conditions of uncer-
tainty and which will identify data and research inadequacies that
affect the project, is expected to be distributed before
June 30, 1978.

     Under a subcontract with the University of Oklahoma, the
Federation of Rocky Mountain States is conducting a planning
study that emphasizes differences in planning for permanent and
temporary growth.  The reason for this emphasis is that many of
the rural areas and small towns in the West that will experience
energy development booms cannot expect to remain viable centers


     Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo.  Route Specific Cost
Comparisons:  Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High
Voltage Transmission, CAC Document No. 190.  Urbana, 111.:
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Center for Advanced
Computation, 1976.  This report is reprinted as Appendix B in
Volume IV of Energy From the West.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.   (EPA-600/7-77-037)

     3Control Data Corporation and International Research and
Technology Corporation.  Scenario Run Analysis:  Western Energy
Development.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Technical Information Division, 1977.

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of economic activity after energy development ceases.  The Fed-
eration's report will also be available before June 30, 1978.

     Under another subcontract, Princeton University is conducting
an analysis of facility siting policies.  The Princeton effort is
intended to build on previous theoretical work in dimensional
analysis and the theory of growth poles and to provide a critique
of the results of the research team's impact and sensitivity
analyses.

1.3  PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS WORK PLAN

     This draft work plan identifies and describes the research
to  be conducted during the remainder of the project.  While the
major emphasis will be on policy analysis and producing a final
technology assessment report, impact .analyses will be refined and
extended, and a number of background and supporting materials will
be completed and packaged for distribution.  The identification
and description of tasks and products to be described in this
Work Plan are:  (1). impact analyses; (2) policy analyses;
(3) background and supporting analyses; and (4) the final tech-
nology assessment report.  Additional sections describe the time-
table for completing these tasks and producing reports, and
briefly outline our preliminary plans to encourage the utilization
of the S&PP interdisciplinary research team's research products.

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                            CHAPTER 2


                         IMPACT ANALYSIS
2.1  INTRODUCTION
     Impact analysis was emphasized by the Science and Public
Policy-Radian research team during the first year of the study.
As described in the First Year Work Plan1 and Energy From the
West,2 seven scenarios postulating hypothetical patterns of energy
development in the western U.S. were used to structure the impact
analyses that were conducted.  Six of the seven scenarios call for
developing one or more energy resource at specific sites using
specified combinations of technological alternatives.  The seventh
specifies three levels of energy development in the eight-state
study area from the present to 2000.3

     In constructing the site-specific scenarios, locations were
selected to be representative of the range of conditions that
exist where energy resources are located in the eight-state study
area; and energy development technologies were selected to be
representative of those expected to be used in developing energy
resources in the western U.S. between now and the year 2000.

     The analyses of site-specific impacts are not intended to
produce environmental impact statements for specific development


     1White, Irvin L., et al.  First Year Work Plan for a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.
(EPA-600/5-76-001, NTIS Order #PB-252 034/AS)
                           i
     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  A Progress
Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development, 4 vols. and Executive Summary.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-072a-d)

     3Stanford Research Institute's energy model was used
to establish the three levels of development.   See Cazalet,
Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Development Study:
Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park,  Calif.:  Stanford
Research Institute, 1976.  These three levels and how they were
adapted for this project are described in detail in Energy From
the West.  See also Section 2.2 below.

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projects; rather the technology-site combinations chosen are
hypothetical and are intended to provide a basis for formulating
generalizations about local impacts and identifying variations in
impacts between and among technologies, sites, and combinations
of technologies and sites.  Together the site-specific and eight-
state scenarios provide for the analysis of a range of techno-
logical and locational alternatives, impacts, and alternative
policies and implementation strategies associated with various
patterns, rates, and levels of energy development within the
eight-state study area.

     Four categories of impacts were analyzed for each of the six
site-specific scenarios:  air; water; social/economic/political;
and ecological.  Health effects, noise, transportation, and
aesthetics categories were added for the eight-state area scenario.

     As the summary of results in Chapter 3 of Energy From the
West demonstrates, the Science and Public Policy (S&PP) inter-
disciplinary research team has made considerable progress toward
achieving the objectives of formulating informed generalizations
about the impacts of development and identifying the variations
in technologies, sites, and technology-site combinations which
appear to play an important role in determining relative costs,
risks, and benefits.  However, the impact analyses performed to
date are incomplete.  These analyses must be extended and refined
to support the policy analysis purposes of the study better.  In
the following sections of this chapter, anticipated changes in
the impact analyses will be discussed under five headings: levels
of development; extensions and refinements; interactive effects;
uncertainty; and reporting the results of the impact analyses.
Obviously the changes discussed under these five headings do not
exhaust the changes that either could or ideally should be made.
In making choices, the relative adequacy of completed analyses,
relative significance of the impact category, likely benefits of
additional analysis, particularly for policy analysis, and per-
sonnel and financial resource limitations have been taken into
account.  Our overall purpose has been to produce the impact
analysis results needed to inform the policy analyses that will
be the S&PP interdisciplinary research team's principal research
activity in completing the project.

2.2  LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT

     As described in Energy From the West, the three levels of
energy development postulated for our eight-state study area were
based on the energy model developed for Gulf Oil Corporation by
Stanford Research Institute (SRI).1  The three levels are SRI's

     *For a description of the model, see Cazalet, Edward, et al.
A Western Regional Energy Development Study;  Economics, Final
Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, CA:  Stanford Research Institute,
1976.

                                8

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Low Demand, Nominal, and Low Nuclear Availability cases.  In the
final impact analysis report, only the Low Demand and Nominal case
levels of development will be considered for coal, oil, natural
gas, and uranium.  Oil shale development will be modified for both
cases by lowering the levels of development below those called for
by the model.  Geothermal resources are not included in the model
and levels of development will be forecast to provide a basis for
determining and analyzing the impacts of the development of these
resources.

2.2.1  Coal

     The Low Demand and Nominal Cases call, respectively, for
970 million and 1,150 million tons of coal to be produced nation-
ally in 1985.  Without a change in current policies, the Adminis-
tration's National Energy Plan1 would require production of approx-
imately 1,080 million tons in 1985.  However the Plan proposes
policy changes which would have the net effect of boosting
national coal production in 1985 to about 1,280 million tons per
year (MMtpy).

     The Plan includes a "best available control technology"
(BACT)  requirement which could be expected to shift coal produc-
tion away from the West since requiring all coal-fired power
plants to be equipped with scrubbers2 would largely eliminate the
advantage of using low sulfur western coal in most regions of the
country. 3  The Montana University Coal Demand Study** indicates
that the demand for Northern Great Plains coal could decrease by
as much as a third if such stringent environmental control poli-
cies were implemented.5  This decrease would be equivalent to a


     ^.S. Executive Office of the President, Energy Policy and
Planning.  The National Energy Plan.  Washington, D.C.:  Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1977.
     2
      "Best available control technology" (BACT) is widely inter-
preted as requiring sulfur scrubbers, at least in the short run.
The BACT requirement is included in the Clean Air Act Amendments
of 1977.   (91 Stat. 700)
                         .!
     3Kirschten, J. Dicken.  "Converting to Coal—Can It Be Done
Cleanly?"  National Journal Reports, Vol. 9 (May 21, 1977),
pp. 781-84.

     lfPower, Thomas M. , et al.  Montana University Coal Demand
Study;   Projections of Northern Great Plains Coal Mining and
Energy Conversion Development, 1975-2000 A.D., Final Report.
Missoula, Mont.:  University of Montana, 1975.

     5Summarized in Duffield, John, et al.  "Defining the Market
for Northern Great Plains Coal."  Montana Business Quarterly,
Vol. 14 (Summer 1976), pp.  18-25.

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national demand of 850 million tons in 1985 which is slightly less
than SRI's Low Demand case.  SRI's national projections for 1990
are 1,000 MMtpy and 1,260 MMtpy  for the Low Demand and Nominal
cases.  This would require that  580 MMtpy and 740 MMtpy respec-
tively be produced in the West.

     Projected national production for the year 2000 is 2,000
MMtpy  (Low Demand case) and 2,640 MMtpy  (Nominal case).  Produc-
tion in the West would be 1,300 MMtpy and 1,760 MMtpy respectively,
This leads us to conclude that SRI's Low Demand and Nominal cases
will continue to be reasonable bases for determining and analyzing
impacts.

2.2.2  Oil Shale

     The SRI Low Demand and Nominal cases call for five 100,000
barrels per day (bbl/d) oil shale facilities by 1990 and 35 facil-
ities  (Low Demand) and 42 facilities (Nominal) by 2000.  These
forecasts now appear to be too high.  The commercial oil shale
developments that were expected in the mid-1970's failed to mate-
rialize.  The only oil shale development plans that have been
approved by the Secretary of the Interior are Occidental arid
Ashland's in situ development at Colorado Tract B and a smaller
project by Gulf and Standard (Indiana)  at Colorado Tract A.
Together these developments could produce 62,000 bbl/d of shale
oil by 1983.1  Other developments may occur, including a federally
sponsored 100,000 bbl/d surface retort.  However, the required
lead times make it unlikely that the level of development will
exceed the following:

     1990— 2 levels:  1 and 5 100,000 bbl/d facilities

     2000— 3 levels:  10, 25, and 42 100,000 bbl/d facilities

2.2.3  Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium, and Geothermal

     The levels of development for oil, natural gas, and uranium
called for by SRI's Low Demand and Nominal cases  still appear to
be a reasonable basis for determining and analyzing the impacts

     •'Occidental and Ashland's in situ development would produce
57,000 barrels/day of this total.

     2The levels for each are:    1990                 2000

                         Low Demand  Nominal  Low Demand  Nominal

Oil (million barrels/day)     .60        .45        .60       .50
Natural Gas (billion
  cubic feet/day)            5.2        3.2        3.2       3.0
Uranium (thousand
  tons/day yellowcake.)     28.8       51.3       37.8      71.1

                               10

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of energy resource development in the western U.S.  As noted above,
geothermal resources are not included in SRI's model.  Taking into
account announced plans and assuming a national production level
of geothermal-based electric power of 2,500 to 5,000 megawatts in
1985 and 7,000 to 50,000 in 2000, it seems reasonable to forecast
the development of 100 to 200 megawatts by 1985 and 700 to 5,000
by 2000 in the eight-state study area.1  The 100 to 200 megawatts
are based on planned developments in the Jemez Mountains in New
Mexico and in the vicinity of Roosevelt, Utah.  The 700 to 5,000
megawatts is 10 percent of the level of national production esti-
mated for 2000.  This is approximately the percentage of U.S. geo-
thermal resources located in the eight-state area.

2.3  EXTENSIONS AND REFINEMENTS

     In this section, the extensions and refinements that are to
be made to the impact analyses reported in Energy From the West
are described.  These changes include:  adding several additional
technological alternatives; performing selected sensitivity and
parametric analyses in each impact category; filling in gaps and
adding to the depth of analysis in selected aspects of each impact
category, revising the format for reporting results to show both
impacts attributable to a particular technology and to the combina-
tion of technologies in each scenario; and summarizing the costs,
risks, and benefits of development alternatives.  Each of these
will be discussed below.

2.3.1  Added Development Alternatives

     Five energy resource development alternatives are to be added,
three at specific sites (solutional uranium mining at Gillette,
conventional uranium mining and milling at Navajo/Farmington, and
modified in situ oil shale at Rifle) and two in the eight-state
areawide scenario (enhanced oil recovery and geothermal).  The
uranium developments are added to approximate more closely the
pattern of energy development that can be anticipated in New
Mexico and to add an analysis of the impacts of solutional mining.

     xThese are the concensus estimates from Loveland, Walter D.,
Bernard I. Spinrad, and d. H. Wang, eds.  Magnitude and Deployment
Schedule of Energy Resources; Proceedings of a Conference Held on
July 21-23, 1975, in Portland, Oregon, under the Sponsorship of
the Energy Research and Development Administration, Pacific North-
west Regional  Commission, and Oregon State University Office of
Energy Research and Development.  Corvallis, OR.:  Oregon State
University, 1975.  U.S. Energy Research and Development Admin-
istration, Division of Geothermal Energy.  Definition Report;
Geothermal Energy Research, Development and Demonstration Program.
Springfield, VA.:  National Technical Information Service, 1975
(NTIS Order #ERDA-86), estimates 1,500 to 6,000 megawatts by 1980.
These estimates do not include non-electrical generating uses
such as space heating and crop drying.

                                11

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Modified in situ oil shale development is being added because it
now appears that the first commercial scale oil shale developments
will utilize this technological alternative.1

     Enhanced oil recovery and geothermal resource development are
being added to the eight-state areawide scenario to provide an
analysis of the impacts of a variety of technological alternatives
for developing those resources.  In the case of both, the selec-
tion of technological alternatives is either reservoir or resource
specific.  Although it is not feasible to do a site-specific anal-
ysis of each alternative, it is possible to generalize about the
impacts of deploying a range of these alternatives on an areawide
basis.

A.   Uranium

     A uranium surface mine producing 1,100 tons of ore per day by
1985 will be added to the Navajo/Farmington scenario.  This mine
will be sited near Shiprock and will be scheduled to  be  operational
in 1985.

     A uranium milling facility producing 1,000 metric tons of
yellowcake per year by 1985 will also be added.  The mill will
utilize acid leaching and ammonia precipitation processes.
Yellowcake produced by the mill will be transported out of the
eight-state study area.

     A uranium solutional mine producing 1,000 tons of ore per day
by 1985 will be added to the Gillette scenario.  The uranium mill-
ing facility will be expanded to 1,000 tons of yellowcake.  Data
for both the surface mine and milling facility are available from
the Energy Resource Development Systems for a Technology Assess-
ment of Western Energy Resource Development  (ERDS).^Data on
solutional mining are not so readily available.  However, suffi-
cient data are expected to be available to support an analysis of
the water impacts, the impacts of special interest in the case of
this technological alternative.

B.   In Situ Oil Shale

     A 57,000 bbl/d Occi.dential modified in situ oil shale develop-
ment will be added to the Rifle scenario,  this development will
be sited in the Piceance Creek Basin and is scheduled to be opera-
tional in 1982.  This daily production rate is based on a full


     111 In Business This Week; Companies:  Oil-Shale Development."
Business Week, September 12, 1977, p. 52.

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy Resource Development Systems
for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, forth-
coming.

                                12

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 scale  development  unit  consisting  of  a  room approximately  200 feet
 square and  310  feet  high  with  a mined-out  base  of  one-third acre.
 An  estimated  1,150 barrels per acre-foot or a total of  115,000 bar-
 rels would  be produced  by each unit for an overall recovery of 40
 percent.  The in situ retorting will  burn  from  the top  of  the room
 down with air being  blown in at the top and pulled out  at  the bot-
 tom.   Some  low  Btu-gas  would be produced and it will be used for
 on-site steam generation.  Shale mined  in  the construction of the
 rooms  will  be retorted  in a surface retort.  A  pipeline will trans-
 port the shale  oil from both the in situ and surface retorts to
 refineries  outside the  eight-state study area.

     Some data  problems are anticipated; however,  sufficient data
 for determining the  likely impacts of this kind of development are
 expected to be  available  from  the  U.S. Geological Survey  Super-
 visor's Office  in  Grand Junction,  Colorado,  and published  develop-
 ment plans.

 C.   Enhanced Oil  Recovery

     A variety  of  enhanced oil recovery techniques are  either
 being  used  or tested.   The most widely  used method is water-
 flooding, a technique now commonly used very early in the  produc-
 tive life of  a  reservoir.  Less commonly used techniques are
 polymer floods, surfactants, miscible recovery, immiscible gases,
 and thermal recovery.   These techniques are reservoir-specific,
 with the choice of technique being determined by the properties
 of  the  reservoir and the  viscosity of the  oil.  Two techniques,
 thermal recovery using  steam flooding and  carbon dioxide miscible
 flooding will be analyzed as the enhanced  recovery processes most
 likely  to be  deployed,  and the impacts  likely from other techno-
 logies  will be  compared to these.  The  Office of Technology Assess-
 ment's  enhanced oil  recovery study is expected  to  provide  suffi-
 cient  data  to permit the  identification of residuals and a gen-
 eral characterization of  the likely impacts  of  deploying these
 technologies  on an areawide basis.

 D.   Geothermal

     Most of  the geotherrdal resources likely to be developed within
 the eight state study area are hot-water convection systems and
 the analysis  of the  impacts of geothermal  resource development in
 the eight-state study area will stress  these.  Dry hot  rock systems
will also be  considered, but in less  detail.
     XU.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment.  An
Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Potential in the U.S., Draft
Copy.  Washington, D.C.:  Office of Technology Assessment, 1977,
The final report is expected to be available in time to be used
in this analysis.

                               13

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     While not adequate to support a site^specific analysis, data
from the ERDS, Resource Planning Associates' report on Western
Energy Resources and the Environment;  Geothermal,l and the
Futures Group's technology assessment of geothermal resource devel-
opment2 should provide an adequate basis for a general character-
ization of areawide impacts.

2.3.2  Changes Within Impact Analysis Categories3

A.   Air Quality

     During the first year, air quality impact analyses included
predictions of 3-hour, 24-hour and annual average ground level
concentrations of criteria pollutants and cooling tower drift.1*
Other air quality impacts discussed more generally were sulfates,
oxidants, plume opacity, and long range visibility.  Several
findings show that variations in the selection and configuration
of energy facilities, site parameters, and various model assump-
tions can significantly affect the results of air impact analyses.
Some of these variations have potentially significant policy impli-
cations.  For example, eliminating a scrubber, lowering a stack,
and not siting a facility on the highest terrain in the area could
result in violation of Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Pre-
vention of Significant Deterioration (PSD)5 regulations, ambient
air quality standards, changes in long-range visibility, and,
under certain circumstances,  concentrations of some pollutants
potentially damaging to biota and humans.  Given these findings
and the importance of air quality issues in decisions concerning
western energy development, air quality impact analyses will be
emphasized during the remainder of the study, particularly


     1Resource Planning Associates.  Western Energy Resources
and the Environment;  Geothermal.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy, Minerals, and
Industry, 1977.

     2The Futures Group.  A Technology Assessment of Geothermal
Resource Development.  Gastonbury, CT:  The Futures Group,  1975.

     3Archaeological impacts have not been ignored in either
Energy From the West or the following extensions and refinements.
They are treated as a land use impact in both.

     ''All three time periods do not apply to all six criteria
pollutants.

     5These regulations are sometimes labeled Non-Significant
Deterioration  (NSD) rather than Prevention of Significant Dete-
rioration  (PSD).  The term NSD was used in Energy From the West;
however, PSD is the term now being used most frequently and will
be used during the remainder of the study.

                                14

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sensitivity and parametric analyses and attempting a more detailed
analysis of sulfates and visibility effects as described below.

     The variables to be singled out in sensitivity and parametric
analyses are:  stack heights, environmental controls, siting con-
itions, plant spacing, facility size, and operating practices.

1.   Stack Heights

     The effect of varying stack heights on the air quality impacts
of facilities sited on elevated terrain will be examined for gas-
ification, liquefaction, and oil shale processing facilities.  For
each facility, a lowest stack height consistent with good engi-
neering practice, an average or most frequently used stack height,
and a highest stack height will be examined.  The worst-case
impact of each of the seven power plants included in our scenarios
will be determined for the lowest expected stack height of 300
feet.  The results of the impact analyses completed to date indi-
cate that 4 power plants equipped with 500-foot stacks would vio-
late Class II PSD increments (the power plants at Kaiparowits,
Farmington, Rifle, and Beulah).  These plants will be reexamined
when configured with 1,000-foot stacks.  Additional air dispersion
modeling will be performed and pollutant concentration curves
(3-hour and 24-hour) as a function of distance from the plant in
the prevailing wind direction will be drawn.

2.   Environmental Controls

     The seven power plants included in the six site-specific
scenarios were equipped with 80 percent efficient sulfur dioxide
(S02) scrubbers and 99 percent efficient electrostatic precipi-
tators  (ESP).  Both 95 percent efficient and "no scrubber" config-
urations will be modeled to determine the maximum ambient concen-
trations of SO2 that can be expected; and modeling results from
the analyses already completed will be scaled to determine maximum
total suspended particulate  (TSP) levels for both ESP and no ESP
cases.  For both the S02 and TSP analyses, downwind short-term
(3-hour and 24-hour) maximum concentration curves will be drawn.

3.   Siting Conditions   j

     Air dispersion modeling results to date indicate that a
TOSCO II oil shale iacility and the power plant at Rifle and one
power plant at Kaiparowits/Escalante would result in violations
of Class II PSD increments as a result of plumes  impacting  elevated
terrain.  Existing modeling results will be used to calculate the
maximum change in air quality impacts that would result from the
relocation of these facilities.  Downwind short-term pollutant
curves will be drawn for each facility.
                                15

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4.   Plant Spacing

     Using existing modeling results for flat terrain conditions,
downwind curves of maximum short-term pollutant concentrations
will be prepared for the facilities in each of the six site-
specific scenarios.  These curves will be used to identify poten-
tial problems resulting from the interaction of pollutants from
multiple facilities.

5.   Facility Size

     The impact of reducing the size of power plants at
Kaiparowits/Escalante, Navajo/Farmington, Rifle, and Beulah will
be determined.  (In the analyses that have been completed, each of
these plants was found to violate Class II PSD increments.)   The
impact of multiples of 750 megawatt electric (MWe) power plant
units will be calculated by scaling existing modeling results.  In
addition, the impact of multiples of 500 MWe power plants will be
examined at Rifle and Kaiparowits/Escalante.  (Both of these facil-
ities were found to have plume impaction problems in the analyses
that have been completed.)

6.   Operating Practices

     Emissions are greater during start-up and shut-down than
during steady state operations.  Current operating practices will
be examined to determine how often plants are being shut down and
started up and what the air quality consequences of these prac-
tices are.

     In addition to these sensitivity and parametric analyses,
the following extensions and refinements will be undertaken:

1.   Short-Term Visibility

     The short-term impact of adverse dispersion conditions will
be determined for each scenario for 1980, 1990, and 2000.  A "box-
type" dispersion model will be used to predict ambient concentra-
tions during worst stagnation conditions on an annual basis.  Sul-
fates resulting from SOz emissions will be considered in the
visibility predictions using a range of 1 to 10 percent conver-
sion rates of SOz to sulfates.

2.   Sulfates

     In its "Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility
Energy Systems," also being funded by EPA's Office of Energy,
Minerals, and Industry, Teknekron has developed a model for pre-
dicting changes in sulfate levels that can be attributed to energy
facilities.  Teknekron has used this model to relate power plant
siting and sulfate levels in several regions of the country, but
not in the West.  A similar effort has been requested for our

                                16

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eight-state study area.  If this request is granted, a detailed
meteorological map will be produced and related to energy resource
and energy facility locations, conversion rates, and pollutant
transport times to predict changes in sulfate levels both within
and outside the western region.  If the Teknekron effort is not
funded, the treatment of sulfates will be much less detailed.  A
more generalized meteorological map will be related to resource
locations, several emission levels, and transport rates as a basis
for making rough estimates of changes in sulfate levels.

3.   Fugitive Dust

     In the impact analyses already completed, it was assumed that
effective dust suppression techniques would be employed.  This
assumption will be reexamined.  The actual effectiveness of these
techniques at mine sites will be determined and the quantity of
dust likely to be produced will be estimated.

     The extensions and refinements to the air impact analyses
described above are intended to provide a basis for estimating:

        o The level of environmental controls required to meet all
          federal and state ambient air quality standards and fed-
          eral PSD increments.

        o The combination of siting and meteorological conditions
          most likely to produce the best and worst case conditions
          and the probability of each occurring.

        o The sites and siting relationships among facilities most
          likely to result in air quality problems.

        o The short-term and long-range visibility reductions that
          can be expected.

        o The changes in sulfate levels that can be anticipated
          both within and outside the eight-state area as a
          consequence of various levels and patterns of energy
          resource development.
                         i
        o The extent to which fugitive dust is likely to result
          in air quality problems.

        o The air quality effects of shutting down and starting
          up a plant.

B.   Water Availability and Quality

     In extending and refining impact analyses, water will receive
the highest priority.  Knowledge concerning these impacts and how
to avoid or mitigate them will be essential to well-informed
western energy resource development policymaking.

                                17

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      In Energy From the West, the water impact analysis sections
describe the water requirements for energy facilities.  These anal-
yses  will be extended and refined by:   (1) performing additional
water minimization work;   (2) extending the analysis of regional
water requirements;   (3) examining the economics of water treat-
ment;   (4) characterizing the chemical composition of water efflu-
ents  discharged into on-site evaporative holding ponds;   (5) deter-
mining the fate and effects of chemicals discharged into on-site
evaporative holding ponds;   (6) comparing the water consumption
numbers used in this study to' water consumption numbers found in
Federal Power Commission dockets, environmental impact statements,
and other open literature sources,  (7) analyzing tradeoffs and
selected water use mixes, and  (8) extending water impact analyses
to the five additional energy technologies described in
Section 2.3.1.

1.    Water Minimization1

a.    Under a subcontract with the University of Oklahoma, Water
Purification Associates (WPA) will determine the effect of wet/dry
cooling on water consumption and cooling costs for Synthane and
Synthoil coal conversion processes and for steam-electric power
generating plants at two representative sites (Navajo/Farmington
and Beulah).  For steam electric, both turbine condensers and
interstage cooling for large air and hydrogen compressors will be
considered.  The analysis will determine:  (1) the annual cost of
cooling as a function of the amount of water consumed;:  (2) the
sensitivity of annual costs to a range of amortization charges
and fuel costs;  (3)  the cost breakdown for wet, wet/dry, and dry
cooling with comparable equipment, construction, and operation;
(4) the maximum water savings realizable with wet/dry cooling; and
(5) the effect of off-optimum design conditions (for electric
power generation only).  Calculations will take into account total
systems costs including operating, auxiliary, and replacement costs,

b.   Agriculture

     Possible water savings in agriculture will also be examined
with an emphasis on alternative methods of irrigation including
trickle, sprinkler, and alternate row flooding and the eradica-
tion  of phreatophytes.  The water savings that might be realized
by shifting to less water intensive crops will also be considered.
     1Except for agriculture, the water minimization tasks
described here extend and refine work already performed by Water
Purification Associates under subcontract to the University of
Oklahoma.  See Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-
Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants, in the Western
United States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-037)

                                18

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     The principal data sources for this examination will be the
reports of major studies completed by Utah State University,1 the
National Water Commission,2 The National Academy of Sciences,3 and
the Department of the Interior."

2.   Regional Water Requirements

     WPA will also extend the present analysis of regional water
requirements by examining facilities sited at some 40 to 50 loca-
tions within the eight-state study area. 5  These sites have been
selected on the basis of the:   (1) availability of water;
(2) climate;  (3) energy resource characteristics; and   (4) local-
ized residual disposal problems.  For each site, WPA is to:
(1) specify the cooling technology used;   (2) specify the water
requirements for energy development;  (3) identify the technolog-
ical and locational factors that can affect water consumption;
(4) specify the quantity and composition of both wet and dry
wastes;  (5) categorize locations on the basis of the kinds and
magnitudes of the water impacts that can be anticipated;   (6) indi-
cate which combinations of technologies and locations will mini-
mize water impacts;   (7) identify changes, water treatment alter-
natives, and control technologies that maximize water conservation
and minimize residuals; and  (8) categorize subareas within the
eight-state study area on the basis of water consumption and water
impacts .
           State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, prepared for National
Commission on Water Quality.  Logan, UT:  Utah Water Research
Laboratory, 1975.

     2U.S. National Water Commission.  Water Policies for the
Future , Final Report to the President and to the Congress of the
U.S.  Washington, B.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

     3National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council,
Commission on International Relations, Board on Science and
Technology for International Development.  More Water for Arid
Lands:  Promising Technologies and Research Opportunities.
Washington, D.C. :  National Academy of Sciences, 1974.

     "*U.S. Department of the Interior,- Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the
Eleven Western States.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
Office, 1975.

     5 The data basis for this task is work previously performed
by WPA for EPA's Industrial Environmental Laboratory, Research
Triangle Park, NC:  See Water Purification Associates.  Water
Conservation and Pollution Control in Coal Conversion Processes.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977
(EPA 600/7-77-065) .

                                19

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3.   Economics of Water Treatment

     WPA will calculate the cost and energy requirements of water
treatment for Synthane, Lurgi, and coal-fired steam-electric power
plants utilizing:  (1) lake or river water of the quality available
in the vicinity of each of the six site-specific scenarios; and
(2) coal with varying chloride composition.  The water treatment
methods considered will include total water consumption ranging
from a generous quantity within current practice to a minimum
quantity when stringent water minimization techniques are imposed.
Costs and energy requirements will be compared to total fuel costs
and energy output.

     Although it does not appear that treating water to discharge
it into a stream is likely (since.the effluent water can be used
within the plant to reduce water intake requirements), WPA will
estimate the cost of meeting the secondary and tertiary treatment
standards established by the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972.l  This estimate will provide economic cost
data needed to evaluate a policy of no on-site ponding of
effluents.

4.   Residual Disposal

     In order to characterize the chemical composition of the water
discharged into on-site evaporative holding ponds, Radian will
perform the following tasks:

     (a)  The quantities of major residual constituents in effluent
          streams will be determined for each of the following
          processes:  (1) process boiler demineralizer waste;
          (2) cooling treatment wastes;  (3) cooling drift and
          leakage;  (4)  flue gas desulfurization;  (5) bottom ash
          disposal;   (6) fly ash disposal; and   (7) coal washing.
          Ash reactivity will be determined for bottom ash, fly
          ash, and coal washing.  Process condensate treatment
          sludge will be examined to identify major and, to the
          extent possible, trace constituents.

     (b)  Concentrations of major constituent ions in entrained
          water droplets in the air stream will be determined for
          cooling tower drift and leakage.  The major residual
          constituents and trace elements will also be determined
          for  venturi scrubbing dust control and disposal of
          spent shale for the TOSCO II process.  The chemical
          characterization of each of these effluent streams will
          include detailed descriptions of the physical, chemical,


     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972,
Pub. L. No. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816 (codified at 33 U.S.C.A.  §§
1251 et seq.   (Supp.  1976).

                                20

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     or biological  treatment methods  used before  the  stream
     is discharged  into the holding ponds.   The physical,
     chemical,  and  biological changes in the effluent stream
     that occur as  a result of the treatment method will be
     identified.  The type of contaminants to be  quantified
     are:  sodium phosphate, chlorides,  calcium,  magnesium,
     sulfates,  sulfites,  silicon,  and potassium.

(c)   Each effluent  stream will also be characterized  at the
     point of discharge to the holding pond for pH, temper-
     ature,  total dissolved solids (Ibs/day and milligrams
     per liter {mg/&}), total hardness (mg/£ as calcium car-
     bonate {CaC03}), total suspended solids (Ibs/day and
     mg/&),  and total alkalinity (mg/& as CaCOs).  For those
     chemical concentrations that  would be significantly
     increased or decreased by selecting other operational
     treatment procedures,  an  indication will be given of
     what these procedures are and the effect (increasing or
     decreasing)  they will have on the chemical character-
     istics of the  effluent stream.

(d)   In addition to the major species listed above, the
     organic content of the effluent  streams will be  examined.
     However, this  analysis will be limited to particular
     processes and  will not be site-specific.  (This  is
     because the organic nature of the streams will be more
     dependent on the process and  the types of controls used
     than on the location of the facility.)   When possible,
     organics will  be described in terms of total phenols,
     fatty acids, naphthas, and straight-chain hydrocarbons.

(e)   When possible  the trace elements in the effluent streams
     being examined will be quantified.   This quantification
     will not be site-specific since  the available informa-
     tion is not sufficiently detailed to support a quanti-
     tative description.   However, a  literature search will
     be conducted to obtain as much site-specific information
     on coal and water trace elements as possible. Site-
     specific information that applies to the sites within
     the eight-state I study area will  be reported.  When it  is
     determined that a technically sound extrapolation can  be
     made,  information will be extrapolated to other  sites.

(f)   The list of trace elements to be considered  will include
     but not be limited to:  arsenic, chrome (hexavalent),
     copper, lead,  fluorides, zinc, and chromium.

(g)   Other compounds of interest will also be quantified when
     information is available.   These compounds include
     ammonium salts, cyanides,  and sulfides.
                           21

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5.   On-Site Evaporative Holding Ponds

     In order to determine the likely environmental fate of the
chemicals identified in the analysis described in the above sec-
tion on Residual Disposal and the environmental impact of the dis-
posal of wet-solid residuals from power generation and conversion
facilities, Radian will perform the following tasks:

     (a)  State-of-the-art holding pond design, construction and
          management will be described.  This description will be
          as site and eight-state study area specific as possible.
          The description of clay lined ponds will include the
          percent and type clay, permeability, and thickness of
          the liner materials, thickness and stability of berms
          required, construction methods and maintenance practices
          for the liner and berms, dewatering and decanting
          methods, and abandonment procedures (including the appli-
          cation of chemical fixatives).  A similar description
          will be given for synthetic liners.  A generalized cost
          comparison will be made between the use of clay-lined
          ponds and the use of synthetic liners.

     (b)  The possible interaction of chemicals in the effluents
          and the clay liners will be investigated.  Research
          literature values of pond sediment compositions from
          industrial processes similar to those anticipated to be
          used in the scenario will be reported and documented as
          values that might occur in ponds in the study area.
          Potential leakage rates will be estimated as a function
          of the liner and soil characteristics of both clay and
          synthetically lined ponds used as disposal sites for
          soluble residuals.  The wet-solids residual residence
          time will also be considered in estimating leakage rates.
          Site-specific pond analyses for three sites (one each in
          the Northern Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and South-
          west) will be made to compare the leakage rates that can
          be expected.  Locational factors (climate, soil charac-
          teristics, proximity to water table, etc.) that will
          cause differences in leakage rates will be identified
          and summarized.

     (c)  The amount of each chemical that will be in the pond at
          the end of 10, 20, and 30 years will be calculated
          assuming the pollutants remain fixed in the chemical
          composition in which they enter the pond.  While deter-
          mination of the fate of each of the chemical species in
          the pond is beyond the scope of this report, the pH,
          total alkalinity, total hardness, chemical oxygen demand,
          biochemical oxygen demand, total dissolved solids, total
          suspended solids, and the concentrations of oil and
          grease in similar holding ponds located in the eight-
          state area will be discussed.  For each chemical species

                                22

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          identified, the types of reactions and fates of each
          species in the pond will be discussed based on current
          literature.

6.   A Comparison of Water Consumption Numbers

     The water consumption numbers used in the study are generally
lower than those cited in Federal Power Commission  (FPC) dockets,
environmental impact statements, and much of the open literature.
The numbers being used in the study are a product of the water
minimization work performed by WPA during the first phase of the
project.1  WPA's numbers will be compared with numbers from the
Lurgi process FPC docket and environmental impact statements sub-
mitted by El Paso Natural Gas, WESCO, and Michigan Wisconsin-
American Natural Gas.  Specific itemized water consumption differ-
ences will be identified and explained.

7.   Tradeoffs for Selected Water Use Mixes

     Several mixes of , agricultural , industrial, energy, and other
uses will be selected on the basis of mixes projected by studies
conducted for the National Commission on Water Quality,  the North-
ern Great Plains Resources Program,3 and other major studies.  Each
of these water use mixes will be analyzed to determine the impact
tradeoffs that can be anticipated for various levels of energy,
agricultural, and industrial development.

8.   New Technologies

     Radian will summarize water requirements of each of the new
technologies and associated population increases using the ERDS
data base.  A source of water to meet these needs will be identi-
fied, and the impacts of these withdrawals (including stream low
flows and ground-water levels) will be identified.

     The effluents , emissions , and other potential sources of
ground- and surface-water contamination (such as runoff sources
and mine discharges) will also be identified for each technology.
            Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States .  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-037)

     2Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Water Pollution Control Act of 1972;  Regional Impacts;  Colorado
River Basin.  Washington, B.C.:  National Commission on Water
Quality,  1975.  (NTIS Order #PB-249 600)

     3Northern Great Plains Resources Program;  Report of the Work
Group on Water.  Billings, MT:  U.S. Bepartment of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.

                                23

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Potential impacts  (including their likelihood and their signifi-
cance) of the contaminant sources on local surface- and ground-
water systems will be identified.  The results of the effluent
pond seepage analyses described above will be incorporated.  All
analyses will be time-phased up to and beyond the year 2000, as
appropriate.

     The extensions and refinements to the water impact analyses
described above are intended to provide a more adequate basis for
making better informed western energy resource development policies.
Specifically, the results of these extended and refined analyses
are intended to:

        o Identify and evaluate potential water savings by mini-
          mizing both energy and non-energy water consumption.

        o Identify and evaluate the potential for avoiding or miti-
          gating water impacts by prohibiting the siting of some
          technologies at some locations.

        o Estimate the economic cost of regulations which would
          require energy developers to minimize water consumption.

        o Identify and evaluate the potential impacts of on-site
          ponding of water effluents and determine how these
          impacts might be avoided or mitigated.

        o Identify and evaluate the tradeoffs of various energy
          and non-energy water use mixes.

C.   Social/Economic/Political

     During the first year, the emphasis in social/economic/
political impact analysis was on direct and selected indirect
population related impacts, particularly on the availability of
basic services and facilities such as housing and schools and
revenues to meet increased capital and operating costs.  Since no
major changes are required, the emphasis will be on an analysis of
the impact of the technological alternatives that are being added
to the site-specific and eight-state scenarios.  Several impacts
will also be examined in more detail.  These are:

1.   Post-Operation Phase

     The bust phase (post-operation) of energy facilities will
also be analyzed more fully.  Some facilities are more likely than;
others to be phased out after a 10 to 30 year period.  For example',
export coal mines, uranium mines, and oil and gas production are
likely to be shut down, whereas power plants and conversion faci],-
ities would probably be maintained, perhaps by transporting coal'
or other fuel to the facilities.
                                24

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2.   Local Labor Force

     Variations in local labor forces and current employment poten-
ial of residents in the West will be examined in more detail. This
will be coupled with information on the likely sources of immi-
grants to the West.  The distribution of oldtimers and newcomers
will affect the benefits received by current residents,  in terms
of employment, income gains, etc.  Where possible, inflation and
its distribution among groups will be more carefully assessed.

3.   Inter-Industry Linkages

     Competition in the local labor market is one of many forces
affecting non-energy industries, particularly agriculture.  Water,
too, will be a point of competition between industries at many
locations.  On the other hand, energy development may attract new
businesses in hitherto isolated locations, e.g., wholesaling, light
manufacturing, processing of byproducts.  Inter-industry linkages,
both positive and negative, will be given more attention in the
extension and refinement of these analyses.

4.   Public Finance

     An accurate assessment of public finance impacts is not pos-
sible given the limitations of site-specific data on such matters
as jurisdictional boundaries, assessment practices and formulas,
and land ownership.  However, efforts will be made to augment the
data base so that potential revenue shortfalls and surpluses can
be pinpointed more precisely.  Also, as part of the fiscal impact
analysis, a greater variety of energy development schedules will
be examined to see how well "lead-time" problems might be miti-
gated by rescheduling.

D.   Ecological

     The results of ecological impact analysis during the first
year indicate generally that:  (1) many impacts to plants and
animals are likely to result from energy development, primarily as
a consequence of increases in human populations in development
areas; and-  (2) local impacts can vary greatly depending upon the
technology and where it is deployed (that is, technological and
locational factors determine impacts).  No major extensions or
refinements are contemplated.  However, the results of the revised
air, water, and social/economic/political analyses will be intro-
duced into the ecological impact analysis.  If feasible, ambient
concentrations of toxic elements from power plants will be consid-
ered.  Instream flow effects on plant and animal communities will
also be examined in more detail utilizing data from studies being
supported by the Office of Biological Services of the Fish and
Wildlife Service.  And the results of reclamation studies by the
Forest Service in the Surface Environment and Mining  (SEAM)
program will be used to refine our reclamation discussion.

                                25

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E.   Health Effects

     During the  first year, the analysis of health effects con-
sisted of a review of the literature on disease-producing resi-
duals and the identification of health problems.  The review
included carcinogenic polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, toxic
trace elements, mine accidents and exposure to radiation.

     In addition to extending and refining this initial review, an
attempt will be made to identify and, to the extent possible,
quantify increased health hazards to human populations.  This
extended analysis will focus on several major categories of potent-
ially harmful residuals and accidents and relate them to workforce
personnel and the general public.  Workforce and population pro-
jections of increased mortality and decreased life expectancy will
be based on doses for selected pollutants.  Dose-response relation-
ships will be derived from data compiled at Brookhaven and Argonne
National Laboratories.l

     Comparing epidemiological data from diverse geographic
settings or from facilities with different process designs will
likely result in estimates with wide ranges of error.  However,
by including ranges of values and clearly stating assumptions, an
estimate of the relative .magnitude of health risks can be made and
major sources of variation identified.

P.   Transportation

     In the first year, cost comparisons of alternative modes of
transportation were initiated and preliminary results reported.
Materials and equipment needs were identified and quantified.
Extension and refinements planned for transportation include:

        o Identifying levels of development that could saturate
          existing transportation capabilities;

        o Extending the analysis and comparison of alternative
          transportation modes;

        o Focusing more attention on the location of resources in
          relation to existing transportation facilities; and

        o Attempting to provide better answers to such questions
          as the availability of materials and equipment; for
          example, are there enough hopper cars and, if not, can
	enough be produced?   	^	

     1Argonne National Laboratory, Special Task Group.   Pre-
liminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental Impacts of
Fluidized-Bed. Combustion of Coal as Applied ,to Electrical Utility
Systems.   Argonne, IL:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.  The
Brookhaven data are included in the Argonne report.

                                26

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G.   Noise

     Except for considering the technologies that are to be added,
noise impact analyses will not be extended and refined.   However,
noise will be dealt with more extensively in both the transporta-
tion and aesthetics analyses.

H.   Aesthetics

     Aesthetics received limited attention during the first year,
largely because aesthetic impacts are difficult to deal with and
because of the level of effort required in the four basic impact
categories (air; water; sbcial/economic/political; and ecological).
In completing the impact analysis, aesthetics will be dealt with
directly by identifying the kinds of tangible impacts that will
occur.  For example, the introduction of stacks, large facilities,
noise, odors, and reduction of visibility.  To the extent they
are dealt with, subjective aesthetic impacts will be included in
the analysis of lifestyle and quality-of-life impacts in the
social, economic, and'political impact analyses.

2.4  INTERACTIVE EFFECTS

     In the final stages of completing Energy From the West, the
team began to detect interactive effects that were initially over-
looked because of the emphasis being given to the categorization
of impacts.  For example, there are numerous interactive effects
among air and water quality, health effects, and social/economic/
political impacts.   (Flue gas desulfurization creates a solid
waste disposal problem; and air pollutants can be related to human
health and human health to the availability and delivery of health
care, etc.)

     The interdisciplinary team approach, particularly the internal
review sessions, will be used to structure a more systematic iden-
tification of interactive effects.  We also believe that questions
arising in the conduct of policy analyses and in the review of
policy analysis papers can be expected to focus attention on inter-
active effects and identify a need for additional impact analyses.

2.5  UNCERTAINTY

     In the results of the extended and refined impact analysis,
we will attempt to provide a better assessment of the remaining
uncertainties.  For example, data quality and the analytical tools
employed will be assessed, and, where possible, the level of con-
fidence that should be accorded results will be indicated.  The
risk associated with failures such as accidental discharges from
holding ponds will also be discussed, the probability of an impact
occurring will be assessed, and risks and probabilities of a fail-
ure occurring will be categorized.
                        i

                                27

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2.6  REPORTING THE RESULTS OF IMPACT ANALYSES

     When the changes described above are completed, a final impact
analysis report will be prepared and distributed for comments and
suggestions.  The emphasis in this report will be on the identifi-
cation of critical technological and locational factors, the iden-
tification and characterization of risks, and the identification
of the probability of various impacts actually occurring.  The
report, which will be issued in the spring of 1978, is one of the
background and supporting material reports described in Chapter 4.
                                28

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                            CHAPTER  3

                        POLICY  ANALYSIS


3.1  INTRODUCTION

     Technology  assessments  (TA)  are a kind of applied policy anal-
ysis study undertaken to:   (1)  inform public  and private policy-
makers and interested citizens  about the  likely consequences of a
decision to develop and deploy  a  technology;  and  (2) identify.
evaluate, and compare alternative policies and implementation
strategies for dealing with problems and  issues that either are
perceived or are actually likely  to  arise when a technology is
deployed.  To achieve the first objective, three questions must be
answered:  (1) are the consequences  that  have been anticipated
actually likely  to occur;   (2)  are there  also likely to be conse-
quences that have not been anticipated; and  (3) if either or both
kinds of consequences occur, how  serious  will they be?  To achieve
the second objective of a TA, the answers to  these three questions
must be related  to the social and political context within which
the technology will be developed  and deployed.  The questions to
be answered in this case are:   (1) what alternative policies and
implementation strategies can reasonably  be used to maximize bene-
fits and minimize costs and risks when the technology is developed
and deployed; and (2) how will  these alternatives distribute costs,
risks, and benefits throughout  society?

     In this Chapter, we briefly  describe our interpretation of TA
as applied policy analysis, identify and  describe the kinds of
analyses that must be completed to achieve the two TA objectives
identified above, and describe  the analyses being conducted in our
TA of western energy resource development.1
          White, Irvin L., et al.  First Year Work Plan for a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976
(EPA-600/5-76-001, NTIS Order #PB-252 034/AS) for a description
of the Science and Public Policy Program's  (S&PP) interdisci-
plinary team approach to technology assessment.

                               29

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3.2  TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS APPLIED POLICY ANALYSIS

     Applied policy studies, including TA's, generally involve two
kinds of analyses:  technical and policy.1  Technical analyses
evaluate and compare technologies on the basis of objective and,
to the extent possible, unbiased, scientific and technical crite-
ria;2  policy analyses interpret the results of the technical anal-
yses in the context of the social/political system within which
the technology is developed and deployed.

3.2.1  Technical Analysis

     As explained in the conceptual framework for technology
assessment described in our First Year Work Plan, impacts occur
when the inputs and outputs of a technology interact with the
conditions existing at the location where the technology is
deployed (see Figure 3-1).  Therefore, the evaluation and compar-
ison of technologies begins with a description and comparison of
inputs, outputs, and existing conditions.  Technologies can be
evaluated and compared in terms of inputs such as capital, labor,
and land requirements and outputs such as the quantities of elec-
tricity and sulfur dioxide produced.  Existing conditions can be
evaluated and compared on the basis of such factors as the avail-
ability of public services, sectors of economic activity, atti-
tudes toward energy development, air dispersion potential, and
water availability and quality.

     A variety of technical analyses such as those described in
the preceding chapter, our First Year Work Plan, and Energy From
the West,3 can be used to determine what the likely impacts of
developing and deploying a technology will be.  Impacts can be
compared on the basis of such things as changes in the ambient air
concentration of sulfur dioxide, per un-it energy costs, and demand
for public services such as water and sewage treatment.  Impacts


     1These two terms are not altogether satisfactory since both
kinds of analysis are integral parts of policy analysis.  The
analyses described under the policy label in this section are
those which emphasize the political aspects of the overall applied
policy analysis.

     2Although the technical analyses performed to date in this
study have focused almost exclusively on impacts, technical anal-
ysis need not be limited to impact analysis.  As used here the
term technical analysis generally includes a wide range of engi-
neering studies and quarititive and qualitative analyses.

     3White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  A Progress
Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development, 4 vols. and Executive Summary.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.   (EPA-600/7-77-072a-d)

                                30

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U)
                                Existing
                                Conditions
'individual
[& Group
iPerceptioi
                                          Impacts
          Problems
          and Issue;
  Policy
Alternatives &
Implementation
 Strateaies
                                                                                  J
                               FIGURE 3-1:   A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

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can also be compared in terms of their probability of occurrence,
magnitude, duration, and seriousness.

     In short, descriptions of the technologies and locations
together with the results of the analyses of the impacts likely to
occur when they are interacted can be used to inform policymakers
about the costs, risks, and benefits of various technology and
siting options.  However, the results of the technical analyses
will always be incomplete, largely because of the limited explan-
atory power of existing theories and either the inadequacy or
unavailability of data and analytical tools.  Even if it were
possible to overcome these limitations, the results of the tech-
nical analyses would not be an adequate basis for policymaking.
Policymakers need to know more than the costs, risks, and benefits
of technological and siting alternatives evaluated and compared on
the basis of objective criteria.  They need to know how costs,
risks, and benefits will be distributed, which interests and val-
ues will be promoted at the expense of which others, how to pro-
mote the interests and values they wish to promote, and how to
avoid unwanted costs and risks.  The policy analyses described
below are intended to produce results responsive to these needs.

3.2.2  Policy Analysis

A.   The Three Steps in Policy Analysis

     The policy analyses in a TA are conducted in three steps:

        o The identification and definition of problems and issues;

        o The description of the social and political context of
          issues associated with the development and deployment
          of the technology; and

        o The identification, evaluation, and comparison of alter-
          native policies and implementation strategies.

     1. The Identification and Definition of Problems and Issues.l
Some problems and issues associated with the development and
deployment of a technology will be identified when the conditions
existing at the time and location of deployment are described.


     :The terms problems and issues are not synonyms.  Problems
such as those resulting because of the labor and capital intensity
of a technology may or may not lead to an issue being raised.  The
key distinction is that issues involve conflict among competing    -
interests and values. ' Not all problems produce conflicts, conse-
quently both terms must often be used.  This frequently is awkward
and in this chapter only one or the other term will ordinarily be
used, "problem" when conflict is not involved or is not being
emphasized, "issue" when it is.

                                32

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That is, some problems and issues are anticipated independently of
the technical analyses described in Section 3.2.1, perhaps on the
basis of analysis, but often on the basis of past experience, anal-
ogy, and speculation.  But some problems and issues may not be
anticipated; consequently, as shown in Figure 3-2, a beginning
step in policy analysis is for the interdisciplinary research team
systematically to review the results of the technical analyses to
prevent otherwise unanticipated consequences from being overlooked.
Others may be added as a result of the policy analyses themselves.
            IDENTIFY AND DEFINE PROBLEMS AND ISSUES

           o Define problems and issues already
             identified by participants in the system;

           o Define problems and issues identified
             by the interdisciplinary research team
             in its review of impact analysis results;

           o Define problems and issues identified
             by the interdisciplinary research team in
             the conduct of the policy analysis.
             FIGURE 3-2:  POLICY ANALYSIS:  STEP 1

     2. The Description of the Development and Deployment Context.
In the second policy analysis step, both anticipated and unantic-
ipated problems and issues are related to the social and political
context within which the development and deployment of the tech-
nology will take place.  This requires that the relevant policy
system or systems be identified and described in substantive terms.
This "issue systems" approach is based on the observation that
political systems vary according to the substance of the issue
being processed.1  The interests and values at stake, relevant
institutional arrangements, applicable laws and regulations, gov-
ernmental and nongovernmental participants, and intensity of involve-
ment of various participants can vary on the basis of substance.
For example, the substance of health care problems leads to the
definition of a different issue system than does national security;
and the substance of nuclear energy problems leads to a different
issue system definition than would oil and gas.
         issue system may be defined in terms of a single issue
such as what the ambient concentration standard for sulfur dioxide
should be or on a category of problems and issues such as air
quality.

                                33

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     For issues that the political system has dealt with in the
past, the identification of the issue system begins with an exam-
ination of key elements in the historical development of the issue:
when did the issue arise; which participants in the system per-
ceived that it was an issue and what interests and values did they
represent; when did government respond; how did government respond
and what policies were enacted; who administers these policies;
and how have these policies affected the issue?  This step also
includes a more detailed identification and description of the
existing system for dealing with the issue:  what are the relevant
current public and private, formal and informal institutional
arrangements; what interests and values are at stake, who repre-
sents them and what strategies and tactics are they employing; and
are there situational or social and physical environmental condi-
tions and circumstances that either affect or could potentially
affect whether and how the issue is processed?1

     The procedural steps for describing the development and
deployment context are outlined in Figure 3-3.
     3. The Identification, Definition, Evaluation, and Comparison
of Alternative Policies and Implementation Strategies.  In the
policy analysis step of a TA, policy alternatives and implementa-
tion strategies are identified, defined,, evaluated, and compared.
Alternatives and implementation strategies for dealing with issues
already being processed by the system will have been identified in
step 2 above.  However, the interdisciplinary research team also
formulates alternatives itself, both for issues already being pro-
cessed and for problems and issues likely to arise as a  consequence
of unanticipated impacts identified when the technical analyses
were reviewed.   Drawing from both sources, the team reduces the
number of alternatives and strategies to be evaluated and compared
in detail to a manageable number.2   As described in our

     JNot all of the items listed here apply to all problems and
issues.  Which of them apply is determined by the stage of
development of the problem or issue.   Some will be "well developed,"
and all of the listed items will be applicable; others will be
just emerging or not yet anticipated independently of the TA and
few if any of the listed items will be applicable.

     2As the description of our interdisciplinary team approach
indicates, the selection from among all possible alternatives (or
all that team members can identify) is arbitrary.  There are two
major checks on this:  first, the interdisciplinary team reviews
inputs from individual team members;  and second, the team's prod-
ucts are subjected to extensive external reviews.  Both internal   \
and external review help to minimize bias, factual and interpre-  /
tative errors,  and errors by oversight.  See our First Year Work
Plan, and White, Irvin L.  "Interdisciplinarity," pp. 87-96 in
Arnstein, Sherry R., and Alexander N. Christakis, eds.  Perspec-,
tives On Technology Assessment.  Jerusalem, Israel:  Science and
Technology Publishers, 1975, for a description of these procedures.

                               34

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          DESCRIBE THE DEVELOPMENT
           AND DEPLOYMENT CONTEXT

o Describe the key elements in the historical
  development of the issue:

     -When did the issue arise?

     -Which participants in the system perceived
      it as an issue?

     -What interests and values did these
      participants represent?

     -When and how did government respond?

     -What policies were enacted or established?

     -What agency administered these policies?

     -How have these policies affected the
      issue?

o Describe the existing system for dealing with
  the issue:

     -What are the relevant, current public
      and private, formal and informal insti-
      tutional arrangements?

     -What interests and values are at stake?

     -Who represents these interests and
      values and what strategies and tactics
      are they using?

     -Are there situations or social and
      physical environmental conditions and
      circumstances that either affect or
      could affect whether and how the issue
      is processed by the system?
    FIGURE 3-3:  POLICY ANALYSIS:  STEP 2
                        35

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First Year Work Plan/ this is accomplished by applying a number of
filters to isolate those alternatives and strategies that appear
to be most significant and feasible.  Since alternatives distrib-
ute costs, risks, and benefits differently, the filtering of alter-
natives requires at least a preliminary assessment of what the
distributive effects of each alternative would be.  For example:
(1) which individuals, groups, or organizations would benefit more
than or at the expense of others; C2) which costs, risks, benefits
would be transferred from some individuals, groups, or organiza-
tions to others; and (3) would existing regulations have to be
modified, eliminated, or new regulations have to be added to exist-
ing programs, or would new regulatory programs have to be estab-
lished?  A detailed evaluation and comparison of all possible
alternatives is not feasible and is limited to the few alterna-
tives which survive the internal and external review processes
mentioned earlier.  (See Figure 3-4)

     Implementation strategies can also affect the distribution of
costs, risks, and benefits.  However, the first evaluation and
comparison of implementation strategies is in terms of the relative
ease or difficulty of implementing an alternative.  That is, imple-
mentation is one of the several constraints or barriers used as a
filter in determining the feasibility of an alternative.1  But the
analysis of implementation strategies also includes identifying
means for gaining acceptance of an alternative and achieving its
objectives.

     Another key consideration in the evaluation and comparison of
alternatives is utilization.  An essential component of the inter-
disciplinary team approach described in our First Year Work Plan
and in Energy From the West is the participation of the potential
users of the team's research products including representatives
of the broad range of interests and values that are at stake.  As
noted above, this "participatory research" approach includes
involving users in the filtering of alternatives and implementa-
tion strategies.2

     4. Criteria for Evaluating and Comparing Alternatives. While
the results of the policy analyses described above will seldom if
ever eliminate the uncertainties that public and private policy-
makers face in making decisions to develop and deploy technologies,
these results can help them to make better informed choices than
they would otherwise be able to make.  Results of policy analyses
are useful in this regard to the extent that they systematically
describe, evaluate, and compare using clearly specified criteria
and appropriate qualitative and quantitative measures, indicate
theoretical, data, and analytical tool limitations, and specify    i
confidence levels.

     aSee our First Year Work Plan.

     Utilization is discussed more generally in Chapter 5 of
this work plan.

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       IDENTIFY,  EVALUATE,  AND COMPARE
            ALTERNATIVE  POLICIES
         AND IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIES

o Identify and describe alternative policies
  and implementing strategies already being
  proposed for dealing with existing problems
  and issues;

o Describe alternative policies and implementing
  strategies formulated by the interdisciplinary
  research team;

o Reduce the number of alternative policies and
  implementing strategies to a manageable number
  by identifying those which are most signifi-
  cant and feasible.

     -Filter the complete list of alternative
      policies and implementing strategies
      by conducting a preliminary evaluation
      of how they distribute costs, risks,
      and benefits;

     -Identify the barriers or constraints
      (e.g. legal, ethical, moral, difficulty
      of implementation, economic, etc.)
      to acceptance and implementation;

     -Submit the team's reduced list of alter-
      natives and strategies to external review.

o Describe the costs, risks, and benefits of each
  alternative and implementation strategy:

     -Which individuals, groups, or organizations
      would benefit more than or at the expense
      of others?

     -Would existing regulations have to be
      modified, eliminated, or new regulations
      added to existing programs or would a new
      program have to be established?

o Compare alternatives and strategies on the basis
  of explicit criteria using a variety of measures,
    FIGURE 3-4:  POLICY ANALYSIS:  STEP 3
                         37

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     Despite many policymakers' desire to have a "bottom line," no
single measure or evaluation criterion can provide an adequate sum-
mary of the costs, risks, and benefits of alternative policies and
implementation strategies.  We have discussed the use of multiple
measures and evaluation criteria in Chapter 5 of our First Year
Work Plan.  As described there, the combination of measures and
criteria to be used is determined both by what is being evaluated
and the interests and values that are at stake.  Although the mea-
sures and criteria that are used most frequently are economic,
these are not always applicable and do not always provide an ade-
quate basis for evaluation.  For example, dollars are not an ade-
quate measure of aesthetic values nor do they always provide the
best indication of how equitably an alternative may distribute
costs, risks, and benefits.  And while it is possible to determine
the dollar cost of environmental controls, the associated social
costs often, cannot be determined.  By themselves, economic measures
and criteria can be used to evaluate only one component of overall
costs, risks, and benefits.  Consequently, in the policy analyses
discussed in Section 3.3, a combination of measures and evaluation
criteria appropriate to the issue being considered will be used,
including, when appropriate, those described in Chapter 5 of our
First Year Work Plan.

B.   Integrating the Results of Policy Analyses

     The initial product of the policy analyses described above is
a series of papers focusing either on specific issues or cate-
gories of issues.  To achieve the objectives of the TA, these must
be integrated on the basis of cross-cutting problem or issue cate-
gories such as inter- and intra-governmental relations, the ade-
quacy or inadequacy of existing formal and informal mechanisms for
conflict resolution, and the adequacy or inadequacy of the struc-
ture of existing agency programs.  A major integrating task is to
identify what these cross-cutting categories should be.

3.2.3  Overlap and Interaction of Technical and Policy Analyses

     Although the above abbreviated description of technical and
policy analyses may make it appear that they are performed in
sequence, they actually overlap and'there are numerous inter-
actions between the two.  In fact, the two are mutually informing.
For example, initial decisions concerning what technical analyses
to undertake are informed by a preliminary policy analysis which
identifies the problems and issues that policymakers are likely
to have to deal with; and the later, more detailed policy analyses
will almost certainly raise questions that will necessitate addi-
tional technical analyses.  Over the duration of a TA emphasis
shifts from technical to policy analyses. But technical analyses
uninformed by the results of policy analysis are.likely to be
wasteful and inadequate to inform the final policy analyses; and
policy analyses uninformed by the results of technical analysis -
do not provide a basis for well-informed policymaking.

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     Properly performed, the technology assessment process is
iterative:  the initial technical analyses are informed by pre-
liminary policy analyses; the results of the technical analyses
help to define the scope and focus of policy analyses; the policy
analysis identifies additional technical analysis needs; and so
on.  There is constant interaction between the two kinds of anal-
ysis as the interdisciplinary team learns during the course of a
project.

3.3  POLICY ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN ENERGY STUDY

3.3.1  Introduction

     The results of analyses completed during the first phase of
this TA are reported in Energy From the West.  Technical analyses
such as those described in Section 3.2 above were emphasized during
this phase, and, as explained in Chapter 2 above, these analyses
are being extended'and refined to inform the policy analyses cur-
rently in progress.

     Policy analysis during the first phase was limited to the
preliminary identification and definition of several major problem
and issue categories.  In completing the TA, policy analyses (as
distinct from technical analysis) will be performed in the three
steps described above:

        o The identification and definition of problems and issues;

        o The description of the social and political context of
          issues associated with the development and deployment of
          the technology; and

        o The identification, evaluation, and comparison of alter-
          native policies and implementation strategies.

3.3.2  The Identification and Definition of Problems and Issues in
       Western Energy Resource Development

     Since this TA got underway in July, 1975, members of the S&PP
interdisciplinary research tieam have been identifying the problems
and issues actually being raised concerning the development of
western energy resources.  A preliminary analysis of these problems
and issues (see Section 3.2.3) helped to inform the team's initial
decisions concerning what technical analyses to undertake; and the
preliminary policy analyses reported in Energy From the West
focused largely on the identification and definition of these
problems and issues.

     The team reviewed the results of the impact analyses completed
during phase one to determine two things:  first, whether the prob-
lems and issues already being raised are actually likely to occur
(e.g., water shortages);  and, second, whether there are problems

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and issues not being discussed which are likely to arise as a con-
sequence of the unanticipated impacts the team has identified
 (e.g., the possible contamination of ground and surface water from
onsite evaporative holding ponds).  Both determinations were based
for the most part on impact analysis results that identified crit-
ical  technological and locational factors which can cause impacts
to vary significantly.l

      As a consequence of this review of impact analysis findings,
the team identified seven categories of problems and issues that
warrant priority treatment in the second phase of the TA.2  These
are:

        o Water Availability and Quality;

        o Air Quality;

        o Planning and Growth Management;

        o Land Use and Reclamation;

        o Capital Needs;

        o Facility Siting; and

        o Transportation.

      The following are among the considerations which led the team
to select these seven categories:

1.    Water

        o Water is a scarce resource in much of the eight-state
          study area and using water for energy development will
          create or exacerbate conflict among water users.  Tech-
          nological alternatives available to both energy and non-
          energy users could lessen their water requirements.  For
          example, requiring wet/dry rather than wet cooling can
          reduce water consumption by as much as 50 percent for


      1These two factors were not, of course, the only consider-
ations taken into account.  For example, scale and rate are impor-
tant  considerations which affect the impact of both technological
.and locational factors.  And considerations such as duration,
reversibility, and the size of the area and/or populations affected ,
were  taken into account.  See Chapter 5  of the  First Year Work PlanJ

      Subsequent discussions with legislators, mayors, state and
federal agency personnel, and numerous interested individuals have
confirmed that these categories are appropriate to structure our
policy analyses.

                                40

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          most energy conversion technologies; process design
          changes could reduce water consumption even further;  and
          water consumption for agricultural purposes could be
          reduced by the use of water-saving irrigation technol-
          ogies, selection of less water-intensive crops, and
          elimination of water-intensive plants along streams and
          irrigation ditches.

        o Estimates of water availability for future development
          vary considerably, particularly for the Colorado River.
          Projected energy and non-energy water consumption exceeds
          several of these water availability estimates.

        o Current development practices include the discharge of
          water effluents by energy conversion facilities into  on-
          site evaporative holding ponds.  Large quantities of
          these effluents will accumulate over the lifetime of  a
          facility, including .toxic materials.  The accidental
          discharge of these effluents, seepage into ground and
          surface water, and their ultimate disposal when the
          facility is shut down pose potentially significant
          impact problems and may warrant control, including the
          regulation of pond design, maintenance, and shut-down.

        o Population increases in small towns and rural areas will
          often, at least in the short term, result in increased
          use of septic tanks, sewage lagoons, and the discharge
          of untreated or inadequately treated wastes.  Existing
          waste treatment assistance programs are not  (and are  not
          presently designed to be) responsive to the specific
          needs of energy-impacted communities.
2.    Air

        o
  Most of the energy developed in the eight-state study
  area will be exported to adjacent states or to other
  regions of the country.  Development will adversely
  affect air quality in the West where the existing air
  quality is generally much better than what is required
  by EPA ambient air* quality standards.

b Exporting coal would lessen both air quality impacts and
  economic benefits and economic growth possibilities in
  the West.

o Exporting coal would export most of the air quality
  impacts  (and possibly health effects) to other states
  or regions.

o In some areas of the West, background ambient concentra-
  tions of hydrocarbons and particulates from natural
  sources are high and given existing national air

                       - 41

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          quality standards, development in these areas may be
          either limited or precluded.1

        o EPA's current emissions "offset" policy permits new
          facilities to be sited (and, therefore continued eco-
          nomic growth) in non-attainment areas where concentra-
          tions of criteria pollutants exceed air quality stan-
          dards; however, in the West, Prevention of Significant
          Deterioration policies can effectively prohibit develop-
          ment in certain areas where existing air quality is much
          better than current ambient air quality standards
          require.

3.   Planning and Growth Management

        o Most of the development of energy resources in the
          western U.S. will take place near small towns or in
          rural areas.  Large energy-related population increases
          will exceed the capability of small towns and counties
          to provide the necessary services and facilities.  At
          best, most of these towns and counties have only a
          limited planning capability.  And they often do not
          possess or receive adequate planning information far
          enough in advance to plan effectively even if they have
          a professional planning capability.

        o Existing revenues for most towns are inadequate to pro-
          vide the facilities and services needed during the ini-
          tial phases of development.  This is in part because
          increases in revenues from energy development generally
          accrue to county and state governments rather than to
          the towns which must provide most of the services and
          facilities for energy-related population increases.

        o Adequate housing, particularly during the early phases
          of development, is almost always in short supply.  Both
          public and private sector responses have tended to be
          inadequate.  Prices escalate and mobile homes prolif-
          erate, often in uncontrolled areas outside of towns.

4.   Land Use and Reclamation

        o Energy development can affect large amounts of land both
          directly (e.g., mines, conversion facilities, and access
          roads) and indirectly (housing and recreation).
          high ambient concentrations of particulates usually
result, from  blowing dust, a natural phenomenon.  But the root
cause may be bad management practices which have made the soil
susceptible to being blown by the wind.

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        o Mineral  resource  development on federal lands,  includ-
          ing energy resources, is governed by rules and regula-
          tions that limit federal control over development activ-
          ities as well as federal revenues.  The overall system
          of state and federal regulation of resource development
          provides for only limited federal-state cooperation and
          coordination.

        o If not adequately controlled, energy-related land dis-
          turbances in particularly vulnerable areas such as
          alluvial valleys will cause serious impacts.

        o Although current regulations require that all surface-
          mined lands be reclaimed, reclamation will be difficult
          and expensive in some areas of the West, particularly
          in the arid Southwest.

        o Unless access to recreational areas in the vicinity of
          energy development is controlled and recreational activ-
          ities such as off-road vehicles and hunting regulated,
          these areas will be damaged, including the fragmentation
          of habitat, destruction of biota, and possible destruc-
          tion of archaeological sites.

        o Currently available recreational areas will be inadequate
          to meet the recreational needs of the present population,
          energy-related population increases, and tourists.
5.   Capital Needs
        o Capital needs for western energy resource development
          can require an investment on the order of $200 billion
          (constant 1975 dollars).  It is not clear that investors
          will be willing to make an investment of this magnitude
          to develop these resources.

        o Investment decisions will be affected by pricing policies,
          the economic costs of environmental protection, bureau-
          cratic processes and procedures, inter-regional rival-
          ries , competition!in energy markets, and opportunities
          to share financial risks.
6.   Facility Siting
          Siting is still largely controlled by state and local
          governments but national policies greatly affect the
          kind and location of facilities and how they will be
          operated.  Current siting policies and procedures in
          most states are inadequate to meet the challenge of
          greatly increased domestic energy production to lessen
          dependence on external sources.  Developers (and their
                                43

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          opponents)  are frequently frustrated by a system of
          siting laws and regulations that is fragmented,  slow,
          and unpredictable.

        o Siting marries a technology and a site ;and, thereby,
          largely determines  what impacts will occur and who will
          bear them.   Opposition to siting a facility is often
          based on a concern  for a particular impact, such as air
          quality.  Since different participants in the policy
          system use different criteria to evaluate a site, it  is
          difficult to avoid  siting conflicts.

        o Regulations such as Prevention of Significant Deterior-
          ation may constrain development by either significantly
          reducing the number of available sites or by making it
          impossible to site  certain kinds of technologies at
          certain locations.

7.    Transportation

        o Much of the energy  produced in the West will be  exported
          to other states in  the region or to demand centers out-
          side the region. Each of the transportation modes that
          will be used will produce a different set of impacts.
          For example, slurry pipelines will export water  from  a
          water scarce region and unit trains can create substan-
          tial traffic problems for small towns unless overpasses
          are constructed.1

        o Current federal and state policies give an advantage  to
          some modes of transportation over others.  For example,
          only a few states grant an eminent domain right  to
          slurry pipelines equivalent to what they grant to rail-
          roads .

        o Existing transportation capabilities in the West are
          generally inadequate to meet the transportation require-
          ments of large-scale energy development.  Meeting these
          needs can require an investment of more than $40 million
          (constant 1975 dollars) by 2000.  This would be  almost
          30 percent of the regional investment in extraction
          and conversion facilities.

        o The interstate transport of energy may lead to conflict
          among states, between regions, and between states,
          regions, and the federal government.  If the choice of


     Electricity and synfuels also export water since water is
consumed in converting a raw resource into these fuels.  However,
water exports are more likely to be a perceived problem in the
case of slurry pipeline

                                44

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           transportation  alternative  and  routing  is made by the
           federal  government,  regional, state, and local interests
           may be down-played;  on  the  other hand,  if state and
           local governments make  these choices, power pooling,
           transportation  corridors, and certain modes of trans-
           portation may be ruled  out.

     Obviously these  seven categories are not mutually exclusive.
Problems and issues have  been  categorized this way to emphasize
some of the major  problems and interest and value conflicts that
policymakers will  have to deal with in making western energy
resource development  policies.  As indicated above, the S&PP inter-
disciplinary research team selected these seven categories to ini-
tiate the  indepth  policy  analyses that are now the team's major
research activity.  These categories  will be redefined and modi-
fied as appropriate as the indepth policy analyses progress.
While the  selection and categorization is somewhat arbitrary, the
extensive  external review process briefly described in Section
3.2 will provide a check  on the team's selection  and will contri-
bute to any redefinition1, adding  of issues, or other modifications
that the team may  decide  to make.

3.3.3  The Description and Political  Context of Issues Associated
       With the Development of Western Energy Resources

     A policy analysis of each of the seven categories of problems
and issues discussed  in Section 3.2.2 has begun.  The relevant
policy system or systems  are being identified and described using
the issue  systems  approach and analytical procedures outlined in
Section 3.2.2 above.  As  called for by those procedures, the key
elements of the historical development of the problem and issue
category are being examined and integrated into an overview
description of the existing issue system.  To promote and facili-
tate comprehensiveness and comparability, a general checklist of
interests  and values  is being  developed and used  to take an
interest and value conflict inventory as  a part of each of the
seven separate policy analyses.   An overall energy policy system
description is also being prepared, building on the description
included in Energy From the West,l but focusing more specifically
on major economic  growth/energy/environment conflicts and changes
in public/private  sector  and intergovernmental relationships that
have been and are  occurring since energy  policy became a major
public policy concern.

     A description of the different patterns that western energy
resource development can  take,  the differences in impacts that

     Chapter 13.   The description in Energy From the West was
adapted from Kash,  Don E., et  al.  Our Energy Future:  The Role
of Research, Development,  and  Demonstration in Reaching a National
Consensus on Energy Supply.Norman, OK:University of Oklahoma
Press,  1976.

                                45

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these patterns will produce, and how national and state policies
will influence development is also being prepared to set the con-
text of the seven separate analyses.

     Together, the descriptions of the energy policy system and
energy development patterns provide an overview context within
which to analyze each of the seven separate categories of problems
and issues and an integrating overview of how these separate anal-
yses relate to each other, where problems and issues have been
omitted that should be included, and the relative importance of
the range of problems and issues that policymakers are and will
have to deal with in connection with western energy resource
development.

3.3.4  The Identification, Definition, Evaluation, and Comparison
       of Alternative Policies and Implementation Strategies

     As described in the policy analysis procedures outlined above,
the third step in policy analysis is to identify, define, evaluate,
and compare alternative policies and implementation strategies.
This  part of the policy analysis of the seven problem and issue
categories identified above is now underway.  Alternatives and
strategies being considered include those being proposed by par-
ticipants in the policy system, identified by the interdisciplinary
team, and suggested by outside reviewers.  The individual team
member initially responsible for the analysis of a category of
problems and issues selects from among all the alternatives and
strategies that have been identified those which seem to warrant
detailed analysis.  As successive drafts of the analysis are
reviewed internally (and less often externally), the choice of
which alternatives and strategies warrant in-depth treatment
ceases to be an individual decision.

     To assist team members in carrying out what are initially
individual assignments and to insure comprehensiveness and com-
parability, alternatives and strategies are being categorized and
an overall checklist of evaluation criteria is being.prepared.
Whether an alternative would .avoid or mitigate, be a short- or
long-term response, involve a technological fix or require a  change
in behavior, be affected significantly by state-of-society changes,
be significantly affected by changes in national policy, or pro-*
duce an irreversible change are among the considerations being
taken into account in categorizing alternatives.  Considerations
in categorizing implementation strategies include whether legis-
lative action would be required, whether a new agency would have
to be established, and whether more than one agency or level of
government would be involved.  The check list for use in evalu-
ating and comparing alternatives will include at least four cate-  '
gories of evaluation criteria:  effectiveness (achieving the policy
objective), efficiency (the associated costs}, equity (the distri-
bution of the associated costs, risks, and benefits), and flexi-
bility (accommodation of differences, e»g., among regions).

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     As noted above, which criteria (and measures) are applicable
and appropriate varies among substantive problem and issue cate-
gories.  The overall checklist of evaluation criteria serves only
as a starting point and each policy analysis will explicitly iden-
tify the criteria (and measures) being used in the evaluation and
comparison of alternatives.

3.3.5  The Policy Analysis Report

     The team can expect to find a number of recurrent themes
emerging from the individual policy analysis papers.  For example,
changes and the effects of intergovernmental and private-public
sector relationships are pervasive, and what is learned about them
in the separate analyses will need to be integrated.  This inte-
gration will be accomplished in the Policy Analysis Report
described in the next chapter.
                                47

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                            CHAPTER 4

                             REPORTS
4.1  INTRODUCTION

     In addition to a final, integrating technology assessment
(TA) report, this project will produce a number of background and
supporting materials reports.  Each of these reports will be
briefly identified and described in the following section.  A
timetable for completing the project is also included.

4.2  BACKGROUND AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS REPORTS

4.2.1  Energy Resource Development Systems

     The energy resource development systems (ERDS) descriptions,
now being reviewed externally and revised for publication, consist
of two parts.  Part I describes the laws and regulations of the
federal government and the eight states within the study area
which control or regulate the deployment and/or operation of  energy
resource development technologies for more than one resource.  For
example, most of the laws and regulations for air and water quality
are not resource specific.  Part II consists of a separate chapter
for each of the six resources.  Each chapter describes the resource
base, technological alternatives, input requirements, product and
residual outputs, economic costs, energy efficiencies, and resource
specific laws and regulations.

     Information and data presented in these ERDS are a codifica-
tion of the baseline required by the team to perform impact and
policy analyses.  They provide readers an opportunity to examine
the team's data base in detail; and users of our final TA report
will find the ERDS useful as a compendium of information and data
about western energy resource development.

4.2.2  Impact Analysis Report

     A final impact analysis report will be prepared as a major
component of the background and supporting materials to be made
available with the final TA report.  The report will be in three
parts:
                                48

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        o Part I will present a summary of findings similar to
          Chapter 3 in Energy From the West.

        o Part II will consist of six chapters, each of which will
          begin with a brief description of the technology-site
          combinations analyzed in a site-specific scenario.  This
          will be followed by a report of the results obtained in
          four impact categories:  air; water; social/economic/
          political; and ecological.  A final section will sum-
          marize impacts for the scenario.

        o Part III will be a single chapter which describes impacts
          for the eight-state region.  The first section will
          describe how the eight-state scenario was constructed,
          the assumptions that were made, and how the analyses
          were performed.  The second section will report the
          results of our analyses in eight categories:  air; water;
          social/econonic/political; ecological; health effects;
          transportation; noise; and aesthetics.  A final section
          will summarize the impacts of energy resource develop-
          ment in the eight-state area.

     This report is being issued as a part of the background and
supporting materials because many readers will want more than the
summary of impacts that will be presented in the final TA report.
Some users will find the analytical structure and approach useful
in organizing their own analysis of other developments.

4.2.3  Policy Analysis Report

     The policy analysis report is intended to achieve three
objectives.  First, to identify the context within which energy
resource development problems and issues will be dealt;  second,
to analyze the most significant problems and issues associated
with energy development; and third, to integrate the results of
each category of issues in order to identify inter-relationships
among issues and among alternatives, and to provide an overall
assessment of how issues can be dealt with.
                            i
     The policy analysis report will also be made available as a
part of the background and supporting materials for this study.
As is the case of the ERDS report, a major reason for making these
more detailed analyses available is that they permit readers to
probe more deeply into the structure and conduct of our research;
and some users will be interested in having access to more in-
depth information about selected problems and issues than we will
be >able to include in our final TA report.

4.2.4  Data and Research Adequacy Report

     A report describing the adequacy of current knowledge about
the effects of energy development and analytical tools for

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analyzing these effects is a requirement specified by the Environ-
mental Protection Agency  (EPA) for this project.  In meeting this
requirement, prescribed research and data gathering activities
will be related to the research that is already being conducted
in-house and externally by federal and state agencies, and private
organizations.  Specific topic areas included are:

        o Air quality research, including information about exist-
          ing conditions and models of the behavior of primary and
          secondary pollutants on both a local and regional basis;

        o Water quality and quantity research, including assess-
          ments of both institutional and natural factors that
          affect surface and groundwater in relation to energy
          technologies and population growth;

        o Social, economic, and institutional research, including
          data gathering and model development useful in predict-
          ing the responses of a selected variety of societal
          variables to the demands and outputs of new energy
          facilities;

        o Ecological and health effects research useful in predict-
          ing the effects of energy development on critical com-
          ponents of individuals, populations, and ecosystems; and

        o Integrating methodologies and strategies useful for
          organizing, assessing and predicting the effects of
          technologies and social policies.

The objective of organizing and assessing these research topic
areas is to provide a broad overview of knowledge gaps to assist
EPA and other agencies in planning research programs.  Specific
objectives include:

        o Identifying the present and potential gaps in theory and
          data which impede or reduce the reliability, effective-
          ness, and accuracy of related Technology Assessments.

        o Describing new research programs and specific research
          needs in order to minimize these information inade-
          quacies ; and

        o Describing how new research programs could be related to
          existing programs and identifying mechanisms for con-
          ducting or managing this research to make the products
          more useful to policymakers.

     The report is to be based on three principal sources of data:
(1)  data and research limitations identified in the course of per-
forming this TA and on file with members of the research team
(some of which are also indicated in findings that are published

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in Energy From the West);  (2) reports of research adequacy and
needs studies conducted or sponsored by organizations such as EPA,
the Energy Research and Development Administration and Federal
Energy Administration  (both now incorporated into the new Depart-
ment of Energy), Office of Technology Assessment, and the Electric
Power Research Institute; and  (3) interviewing and/6r communicating
with program managers and researchers at major federal energy and
environmental laboratories.  The report will consist of four major
sections:

        o An introduction and summary of the TA that establishes
          the context of the research needs report;

        o An identification of the specific knowledge limitations
          and descriptions of the tools, theories and methodol-
          ogies needed to fill these gaps in categories such as
          air, water, social/economic/political, and ecology;

        o An analysis of why the information needs and inadequa-
          cies exist and their relationship to integrative
          research, including a description of managerial
          arrangements to facilitate research; and

        o A summary description of the relationship of research
          recommendations and existing programs, including an
          assessment of research priorities.

4.2.5  Information File Report

     During the conduct of the TA, a large number of reports,
papers, books, journal articles, and documents have been collected,
catalogued, and indexed.  In order to make this extensive infor-
mation file easily accessible, a  keyword index has been devised.
As each document has been received, it has been catalogued,
abstracted, and  keyword indexed.  At the conclusion of the pro-
ject, an Information File Report will be prepared which includes:
(1) a copy of each abstract,   (2) a copy of the keyword index,
(3) a copy of the computer program written to provide a matching
bibliography for each keyword or combination of keywords, and
(4) a copy of the input information and keywords.  With these
materials, literature searches can be made quite easily.

4.2.6  Subcontractor Reports

     In addition to the subcontractor reports described earlier,
reports on the water analyses described in Chapter 2 and identi-
fied as being performed by Radian and Water Purification Asso-
ciates will be published as separate reports.
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4.3  FINAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORT

     We now anticipate that the final technology assessment report
will include the following:

     1.  A list of highlights of our major findings and
         where they can be found in the report;

     2.  A brief description of the background of the
         study, its purpose, why EPA sponsored it, by
         whom and how it was conducted;

     3.  A brief description setting the context of
         western energy development;

     4.  A summary description of the technologies,
         locations, and levels of development assessed;

     5.  A summary of impact analysis results;

     6.  A summary of policy analysis results;

     7.  A summary of the research needs and adequacy report;

     8.  An index and selected bibliography; and

     9.  An executive summary.

     This report is intended to integrate the more detailed
descriptions, data bases, and analyses reported in the background
and supporting materials reports described above.  The integration
is shown graphically in Figure 4-1.

4.4  TIMETABLE FOR COMPLETING THE PROJECT

     The final TA report is due on June 30, 1978.  The schedule
to produce this report is shown in Figure 4-2.

     This general schedule does not show all the preliminary
drafts that are to be reviewed internally and recycled continu-
ously.  In the case of the policy analysis papers, two review
sessions are held every week to facilitate communication among
team members, to insure that the team benefits from an inter-
disciplinary perspective, to identify overlapping problems and
                                52

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SUBCONTRACTOR
REPORTS








I
3RDS



IMPACT
ANALYSIS
REPORT

POLICY
ANALYSIS
REPORT

DATA AND
RESEARCH
ADEQUACY
REPORT
i


INFORMATION
FILE
REPORT






FINAL
REPORT

FIGURE 4-1:
INTEGRATING BACKGROUND AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS INTO
THE FINAL TA REPORT
issues, and to refine problem and issue definitions.  The inter-
disciplinary group approach being used in this TA is described
in our First Year Work Plan1'and Energy From the West.2
     1White, Irvin L., et al.  First Year Work Plan for a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.
(EPA-600/5-76-001, NTIS Order #PB-252 034/AS)

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  A Progress
Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development, 4 vols. and Executive Summary.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.  (EPA-600/7-77-072a-d)

                                53

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Ul

ERDS
Impact Analysis
Policy Analysis
Research Needs
and Adequacy
Final T.A.
1977
OCT
d
NOV
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T
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                       FIGURE 4-2:  TIMETABLE  FOR COMPLETING PROJECT REPORTS

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                           CHAPTER  5

               REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND UTILIZATION


5.1  INTRODUCTION

     From the beginning of the project, the research team has
attempted to establish and maintain contact with a wide range of
interests in the region, the energy industry, and local, state,
and federal officials.  These efforts have included traveling
within the eight-state study area, communicating by letter and
telephone, and circulating draft and final work plans and progress
reports.  These efforts are intended to provide feedback which
will help us to improve our research products and are intended to
insure that our results will be used.  In this sense, then, these
activities are the beginning phase of utilization activities.
This element of our approach might very well be called
"participatory research."

5.2  UTILIZATION AND FEEDBACK EFFORTS

     Our efforts to secure interaction and feedback from inter-
ested parties and to promote utilization of our research products
are described in four categories.

        o Circulation of Reports.  We will continue to circulate
          draft and final reports widely in an attempt to insure
          effective communication with those who can help us to
          avoid debilitating errors.  Also, by a continuing pro-
          cess of widening our circle of contacts, we increase
          the likelihood of reaching those people most interested
          in and able to use our results.

        o Travel in the Eight-State Study Area.  Beginning in the
          Spring of 1977, members of the research team started
          specializing in their regional travel and contacts.  At
          least one member of the team now has specific responsi-
          bility for maintaining communications with each of the
          states in the study area.  In some cases, travel within
          the region is combined with the organized meetings
          described below; in others they include visits with
          industry, interest groups, local and state officials,
          and federal agencies.  Some travel associated with pro-
          fessional and topical meetings is also continuing.


                                55

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o Meetings with Local Officials.   Starting in March 1977,
  meetings have been conducted with  local officials,
  primarily mayors and county commissioners,  in the
  vicinity of each of our  local  scenarios.  Presentations
  have also been made to professional  staff from the town,
  counties, and councils of governments.   The face-to-face
  contacts made onsite now provide a basis for continuing
  feedback by phone and letter.   Further  visits are
  planned to present the results  of  the final analysis of
  the study.

o Meetings with State Officials.   An approach similar to
  the local visits has been initiated  with state officials,
  both administrative and  legislative.  This  activity will
  continue until the project is  completed.
                                       HiJS. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICEU978 720-335/6043 1-3

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