EPA
United States
Environmental
Protection Agency
Office of
Research and
Development
Energy,
Minerals and
Industry
EPA-600/7-77-072b
July 1977
ENERGY FROM THE WEST:
A PROGRESS REPORT OF
A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
OF WESTERN ENERGY
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME II
Interagency
Energy-Environment
Research and Development
Program Report
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
6. Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
7. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
8. "Special" Reports
9. Miscellaneous Reports
This report has been assigned to the INTERAGENCY ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT series. Reports in this series result from the
effort funded under the 17-agency Federal Energy/Environment Research and
Development Program. These studies relate to EPA's mission to protect the public
health and welfare from adverse effects of pollutants associated with energy sys-
tems. The goal of the Program is to assure the rapid development of domestic
energy supplies in an environmentally-compatible manner by providing the nec-
essary environmental data and control technology. Investigations include analy-
ses of the transport of energy-related pollutants and their health and ecological
effects; assessments of, and development of, control technologies for energy
systems; and integrated assessments of a wide range of energy-related environ-
mental issues.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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€nergy from the West
A Progress Report of a
Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource Development
Volume II
Detailed Analyses and
Supporting Materials
By
Science and Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma,
Irvin L. White
Michael A. Chartock
R. Leon Leonard
Steven C. Ballard
Martha W. Gilliland
Radian Corporation
F. Scott LaGrone
C. Patrick Bartosh
David B. Cabe
B. Russ Eppright
David C. Grossman
Timothy A. Hall
Edward J. Malecki
Edward B. Rajqpaport
Rodney K. Freed
Gary D. Millpr
Julia C. Lacy
Tommy D. Raye
Joe D. Stuart
M. Lee Wilson
Contract Number 68-01-1916
Prepared for:
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
Project Officer
Steven E. Plotkin
Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Energy,
Minerals and Industry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that
the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of
trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.
ii
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FOREWORD
The production of electricity and fossil fuels inevitably
creates adverse impacts on Man and his environment. The nature
of these impacts must be thoroughly understood if balanced
judgements concerning future energy development in the United
States are to be made. The Office of Energy, Minerals and
Industry (OEMI), in its role as coordinator of the Federal
Energy/Environment Research and Development Program, is
responsible for producing the information on health and
ecological effects - and methods for mitigating the adverse
effects - that is critical to developing the Nation's environ-
mental and energy policy. OEMI's Integrated Assessment Program
combines the results of research projects within the Energy/
Environment Program with research on the socioeconomic and
political/institutional aspects of energy development, and
conducts policy - oriented studies to identify the tradeoffs
among alternative energy technologies, development patterns, and
impact mitigation measures.
The Integrated Assessment Program has utilized the
methodology of Technology Assessment (TA) in fulfilling its
mission. The Program is currently sponsoring a number of TA's
which explore the impact of future energy development on both
a nationwide and a regional scale. For instance, the Program
is conducting national assessments of future development of the
electric utility industry and of advanced coal technologies
(such as fluidized bed combustion). Also, the Program is
conducting assessments concerned with multiple-resource develop-
ment in three "energy resource areas":
o Western coal states
o Lower Ohio River Basin
o Appalachia
This report describes the results of the first phase of
the Western assessment. This phase assessed the impacts
associated with three levels of energy development in the West.
The concluding phase of the assessment will attempt to identify
and evaluate ways of mitigating the adverse impacts and
enhancing the benefits of future development.
iii
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The report is divided into an executive summary and four
volumes:
I Summary Report
II Detailed Analyses and Supporting
Materials
III Preliminary Policy Analysis
"IV Appendices
u
^Stephen! J. eage
Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Energy, Minerals, and Industry
iv
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ABSTRACT
This is a progress report of a three year technology assessment of
the development of six energy resources (coal, geothermal, natural gas,
oil, oil shale, and uranium) in eight western states (Arizona, Colorado,
Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) during
the period from the present to the year 2000. Volume I describes the
purpose and conduct of the study, summarizes the results of the analyses
conducted during the first year, and outlines plans for the remainder of
the project. In Volume II, more detailed analytical results are presented.
Six chapters report on the analysis of the likely impacts of deploying
typical energy resource development technologies at sites representative
of the kinds of conditions likely to be encountered in the eight-state
study area. A seventh chapter focuses on the impacts likely to occur if
western energy resources are developed at three different levels from the
present to the year 2000. The two chapters in Volume III describe the
political and institutional context of policymaking for western energy
resource development and present a more detailed discussion of selected
problems and issues. The Fourth Volume presents two appendices, on air
quality modeling and energy transportation costs.
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READER'S GUIDE
This report is divided into four volumes. In addition,
an executive summary provides a brief description of the major
research results of this western assessment.
Readers interested in a general description of the assess-
ment results should read Volume I. Chapters I and II describe
the context and methodological framework of the assessment.
Chapter 3 provides a summary description of the impact analysis,
e.g., water and air impacts, population changes, etc. Chapter
4 summarizes some policy implications of these results,
although the assessment is still in the early stages of policy
analysis at this time. Chapter 5 briefly describes what the
reader can expect from the second phase of the project.
Readers interested in particular geographical areas might
be interested in one or more of the six site-specific chapters
(Chapters 6-11) of Volume II which describe in detail results
pertaining to the following areas: Kaiparowits/Escalante,
Utah; Navajo/Farmington, New Mexico; Rifle, Colorado; Gillette,
Wyoming; Colstrip, Montana; and Beulah, North Dakota. Readers
interested in site-specific air, water, socio-economic and
ecological impacts will find these discussed in subsections
2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively, of each chapter in this volume.
Chapter 12 in volume II describes the results of the regional
analyses. This chapter should be particularly valuable to
readers interested in transportation, health, noise and
aesthetic impacts, which are not discussed in the site-specific
chapters, and subjects (such as water availability) which tend
to be regional rather than site-specific in nature.
Volume III represents a first step in the identification,
evaluation and comparison of alternative policies and
implementation strategies. Chapter 13 presents a general over-
view of the energy policy system. Chapter 14 identifies and
defines some of the principal problems and issues that public
policymakers will probably be called on to resolve. The
categories of problems and issues discussed are: water
availability and quality, reclamation, air quality, growth
management, housing, community facilities and services, and
Indians.
vi
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Volume IV provides two technical appendices:
o a discussion of alternative approaches to modeling
air quality in areas with complex terrain
o cost comparisons of unit trains, slurry pipelines and
EHV transmission lines
vii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
VOLUME I
SUMMARY REPORT
Page
PART I: INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 1: THE CONTEXT OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 2
1.1 INTRODUCTION 2
1.2 NATIONAL ENERGY GOALS 3
1.3 WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCES 4
1.4 SELECTED FACTORS AFFECTING LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT 8
1.5 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES 11
1.6 SCOPE 12
1.7 OVERALL ASSUMPTIONS 12
1.8 DATA SOURCES 12
CHAPTER 2: CONDUCT OF THE STUDY 13
2.1 INTRODUCTION 13
2.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 14
2.3 INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM APPROACH 17
2.4 SUMMARY 21
CHAPTER 3: THE IMPACTS OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE
DEVELOPMENT: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 22
3.1 INTRODUCTION 22
3.2 AIR QUALITY 30
3.3 WATER AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY 48
3.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL 70
3.5 ECOLOGICAL 87
3.6 HEALTH EFFECTS 107
3.7 TRANSPORTATION 120
3.8 AESTHETICS AND NOISE 128
3.9 SUMMARY 133
IX
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CHAPTER 4: POLICY PROBLEMS AND ISSUES 139
4.1 INTRODUCTION !39
4.2 WATER 14°
4.3 AIR -^3
4.4 PLANNING AND GROWTH MANAGEMENT 146
4.5 RECLAMATION 148
4.6 CONCLUSION 149
CHAPTER 5: PLANS FOR COMPLETING THE PROJECT 151
5.1 INTRODUCTION 151
5.2 BACKGROUND AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS 151
5.3 THE FINAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORT 153
VOLUME II
DETAILED ANALYSES AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS
Foreword iii
Abstract v
Reader's Guide vi
List of Figures xviii
List of Tables „.
A li J,
PART II: INTRODUCTION 154
CHAPTER 6: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA 157
6.1 INTRODUCTION 157
6.2 AIR IMPACTS 162
6.2.1 Existing Conditions 162
6.2.2 Emissions Sources 165
6.2.3 Impacts 165
6.2.4 Other Air Impacts 173
6.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts 176
6.3 WATER IMPACTS 179
6.3.1 Introduction 179
6.3.2 Existing Conditions 179
6.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 186
6.3.4 Effluents 190
6.3.5 Impacts 192
6.3.6 Summary of Water impacts 197
6.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 198
6.4.1 Introduction 198
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Page
6.4.2 Existing Conditions 198
6.4.3 Population Impacts 202
6.4.4 Housing School Impacts 205
6.4.5 Land Use Impacts 210
6.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts 213
6.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts 224
6.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 226
6.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts 229
6.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 230
6.5.1 Introduction 230
6.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 230
6.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 233
6.5.4 Impacts 234
6.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 242
6.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE 246
CHAPTER 7: THE IMPACTS OF'ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT
THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA 248
7.1 INTRODUCTION 248
7.2 AIR IMPACTS 254
7.2.1 Existing Conditions 254
7.2.2 Emissions Sources 256
7.2.3 Impacts 257
7.2.4 Other Air Impacts 268
7.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts 272
7.3 WATER IMPACTS 275
7.3.1 Introduction 275
7.3.2 Existing Conditions 275
7.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 281
7.3.4 Effluents 286
7.3.5 Impacts 291
7.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts 295
7.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 296
7.4.1 Introduction 296
7.4.2 Existing Conditions 296
7.4.3 Population Impacts 301
7.4.4 Housing and School Impacts 308
7.4.5 Land Use 312
7.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts 312
7.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts 321
7.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 323
7.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts 325
7.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 326
7.5.1 Introduction 326
7.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 327
7.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 330
7.5.4 Impacts 332
7.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 342
xi
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Page
7.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON 347
CHAPTER 8: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE RIFLE AREA 350
8.1 INTRODUCTION 350
8.2 AIR IMPACTS 354
8.2.1 Existing Conditions 354
8.2.2 Emission Sources 356
8.2.3 Impacts 358
8.2.4 Other Air Impacts 366
8.2.5 Summary 371
8.3 WATER IMPACTS 375
8.3.1 Introduction 375
8.3.2 Existing Conditions 375
8.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 381
8.3.4 Effluents 384
8.3.5 impacts 388
8.3.6 Summary of Significant Impacts 395
8.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 396
8.4.1 introduction 396
8.4.2 Existing Conditions 397
8.4.3 Population Impacts 400
8.4.4 Housing and School Impacts 404
8.4.5 Land Use Impacts 409
8.4.6; Economic and Fiscal Impacts 410
8.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts 421
8.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 423
8.4.9 Summary of Significant Social, Economic, and
Political Impacts 424
8.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 425
8.5.1 Introduction 425
8.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 425
8.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 427
8.5.4 Impacts 428
8.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 439
8.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FROM RIFLE SCENARIO 440
CHAPTER 9: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AT THE
GILLETTE AREA 443
9.1 INTRODUCTION 443
9.2 AIR IMPACTS 447
9.2.1 Existing Conditions 447
9.2.2 Emission Sources 450
9.2.3 Impacts 452
9.2.4 Other Air Impacts
9.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
9.3 WATER IMPACTS 47x
9.3.1 Introduction
xii
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Page
9.3.2 Existing Conditions 473
9.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 476
9.3.4 Water Effluents 485
9.3.5 Impacts 489
9.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts 495
9.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 496
9.4.1 Introduction 496
9.4.2 Existing Conditions 497
9.4.3 Population Impacts 500
9.4.4 Housing and School Impacts 505
9.4.5 Land Use Impacts 509
9.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts 511
9.4.7 Social and Cultural Effects 520
9.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 523
9.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political
impacts 525
9.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 527
9.5.1 Introduction 527
9.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 527
9.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 529
9.5.4 Impacts 530
9.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 540
9.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE 546
CHAPTER 10: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE COLSTRIP AREA ' 549
10.1 INTRODUCTION 549
10.2 AIR IMPACTS 553
10.2.1 Existing Conditions 553
10.2.2 Emission Sources 555
10.2.3 Impacts 556
10.2.4 Other Air Impacts 562
10.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts 568
10.3 WATER IMPACTS 571
10.3.1 introduction 571
10.3.2 Existing Conditions 571
10.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 576
10.3.4 Effluents 584
10.3.5 Impacts 587
10.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts 594
10.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 595
It). 4.1 Introduction 595
10.4.2 Demography and Social Infrastructure 595
10.4.3 Population Impacts 599
10.4.4 Housing and School Impacts 604
10.4.5 Land Use Impacts 608
10.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts 610
10.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts 622
10.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 625
xiii
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Page
10.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political
impacts 627
10.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
10.5.1 Introduction
10.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 629
10.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 631
10.5.4 Impacts |32
10.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 641
10.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OP IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP 647
CHAPTER 11: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE BEULAH AREA 649
11.1 INTRODUCTION 649
11.2 AIR IMPACTS 654
11.2.1 Existing Conditions 654
11.2.2 Emission Sources 655
11.2.3 Impacts 657
11.2.4 Other Air Impacts 664
11.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts 668
11.3 WATER IMPACTS 671
11.3.1 Introduction 671
11.3.2 Existing Conditions 671
11.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply 678
11.3.4 Effluents 682
11.3.5 Impacts 685
11.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts 692
11.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 694
11.4.1 Introduction 694
11.4.2 Existing Conditions 694
11.4.3 Population Impacts 697
11.4.4 Housing and School Impacts 705
11.4.5 Land Use Impacts 709
11.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts 709
11.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts 717
11.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts 718
11.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political
Impacts 720
11.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 721
11.5.1 Introduction 721
11.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 721
11.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts 724
11.5.4 Impacts 725
11.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 731
11.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 735
CHAPTER 12: THE REGIONAL IMPACTS OF WESTERN ENERGY
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 739
12.1 INTRODUCTION ,. 739
xiv
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Page
12.2 AIR IMPACTS 746
12.2.1 Introduction 746
12.2.2 Existing Conditions 746
12.2.3 Impacts 749
12.2.4 Inadvertent Weather Modification 760
12.2.5 Summary 762
12.3 WATER IMPACTS 763
12.3.1 Upper Colorado River Basin 763
12.3.2 Upper Missouri River Basin 780
12.3.3 Summary of Regional Water Impacts 793
12.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 794
12.4.1 Introduction 794
12.4.2 Population Impacts 795
12.4.3 Economic Impacts 806
12.4.4 Public Services 812
12.4.5 Land Use 817
12.4.6 Social and Cultural Effects 821
12.4.7 Political Impacts 827
12.4.8 Materials and Equipment Availability 828
12.4.9 Personnel Resources Availability 838
12.4.10 Capital Availability 847
12.4.11 Summary of Regional, Economic, and Political
Impacts 864
12.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 865
12.5.1 Introduction 865
12.5.2 Impacts from Water Consumption 866
12.5.3 Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing 871
12.5.4 Surface Mining and Reclamation 875
12.5.5 Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution 887
12.5.6 Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts 896
12.6 HEALTH EFFECTS 897
12.6.1 Introduction 897
12.6.2 Selected Criteria Air Pollutants 897
12.6.3 Toxic Trace Element Emissions 903
12.6.4 Radioactive Materials 906
12.6.5 Hazard from Chemicals in Synthetic Fuels
Facilities 911
12.6.6 Summary of Health Effects 915
12.7 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS 916
12.7.1 Introduction 916
12.7.2 Transportation Modes 916
12.7.3 Coal Unit Trains 917
12.7.4 Coal Slurry Pipelines 923
12.7.5 High Btu Gas Pipelines 926
12.7.6 Liquid Fossil Fuel Pipelines 927
12.7.7 Electrical Transmission 930
12.8 NOISE IMPACTS 935
12.8.1 Introduction 935
12.8.2 Methods and Criteria 936
12.8.3 Rail Transport of Coal 941
XV
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12.8.4 Plant Construction 943
12.8.5 Surface Strip Mining
12.8.6 Plant Operation
12.8.7 Summary
12.9 AESTHETIC IMPACTS
12.9.1 introduction
12.9.2 Land
12.9.3 Air
12.9.4 Noise 954
12.9.5 Water 954
12.9.6 Biota 95J
12.9.7 Man-Made Objects 955
12.9.8 Summary 955
12.10 SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL IMPACTS 956
12.10.1 Air Impacts 956
12.10.2 Water Impacts 957
12.10.3 Social, Economic, and Political Impacts 958
12.10.4 Ecological Impacts 959
12.10.5 Health Impacts 959
12.10.6 Transportation Impacts 959
12.10.7 Aesthetic Impacts 960
12.10.8 Noise Impacts 960
VOLUME III
PRELIMINARY POLICY ANALYSIS
PART III: INTRODUCTION 961
CHAPTER 13: THE ENERGY POLICY SYSTEM 963
13.1 INTRODUCTION 963
13.2 HISTORY OF THE ENERGY POLICY SYSTEMS 964
13.3 PARTICIPANTS IN THE ENERGY POLICY SYSTEM 966
13.4 ENERGY POLICY SUBSYSTEMS 983
13.5 CONCLUSIONS 990
CHAPTER 14: SELECTED PROBLEMS AND ISSUES 993
14.1 INTRODUCTION 993
14.2 WATER 993
14.3 RECLAMATION 1012
14.4 AIR 1029
14.5 GROWTH MANAGEMENT 1040
14.6 HOUSING 1068
14.7 COMMUNITY FACILITIES AND SERVICES 1076
14.8 INDIANS 1091
xvi
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14.9 REFINEMENT AND EXTENSION OF POLICY ANALYSIS
Page
1106
GLOSSARY
Appendix A
Appendix B
TECHNICAL NOTE: AN INVESTIGATION OF COMPLEX
TERRAIN MODELING APPROACHES USING THE
STEADY-STATE GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODEL Vol. IV
ROUTE SPECIFIC COST COMPARISONS: UNIT
TRAINS, COAL SLURRY PIPELINES AND EXTRA
HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION Vol. IV
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LIST OF FIGURES
VOLUME II
Page
6-1 The Kaiparowits/Escalante Area of Southern Utah 158
6-2 The Location of Hypothesized Energy Development
Facilities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area 159
6-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Rifle
Scenario 171
6-4 Water Supplies and Pipelines for the Kaiparowits/
Escalante Scenario 180
6-5 Water Consumption for a 3,000 MWe Power Plant
and Kaiparowits/Escalante, Utah 187
6-6 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in
Kane County, 1980-2000 208
6-7 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in
Garfield County, 1975-2000 209
6-8 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in
Page, 1980-2000 211
6-9 Median Family Income, Kane and Garfield Counties,
1975-2000 215
6-10 Estimated Income Distribution for Kane and
Garfield Counties, 1975-2000 216
6-11 Human Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area 235
7-1 The Navajo/Farmington Scenario Area 249
7-2 The Location of Energy Development Facilities in
the Navajo/Farmington Area 250
7-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Navajo/
Farmington Scenario 261
7-4 Surface Water Features and Water Impacts at
Navajo/Farmington 276
7-5 Water Consumption Uses for Navajo/Farmington 285
7-6 New Employment in San Juan County from Energy
Development and Navajo Indian Irrigation
Project, 1975-2000 304
7-7 Population Estimates for Navajo Reservation
Portion of San Juan County, 1980-2000 306
7-8 Population Estimates for Non-Reservation Portion
of San Juan County, 1980-2000 '307
8-1 Location of the Rifle Scenario Area 351
8-2 Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 352
8-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Rifle
Scenario 361
XVlll
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Page
8-4 Water Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Rifle
Scenario 376
8-5 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
Rifle Area 383
8-6 Population Estimates for Garfield County,
1980-2000 402
8-7 Population Estimates for Rio Blanco County,
1980-2000 402
8-8 Estimated Number of Households and School Enroll-
ment in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties,
1980-2000 406
8-9 Median Family Income, Garfield and Rio Blanco
Counties, 1975-2000 412
8-10 Projected Income Distribution for Garfield and
Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 413
9-1 Map of the Gillette Scenario Area 444
9-2 Energy Facilities in the Gillette Scenario 445
9-3 Surface Water Sources in the Vicinity of Gillette 472
9-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
Gillette Scenario 479
9-5 Alternate Water Supply Routes for Gillette
Development 481
9-6 Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette,
and Casper, 1975-2000 504
9-7 Projected Number of Households, Elementary and
Secondary School Children in Campbell County,
1975-2000 507
9-8 Proportional Projected Income Distribution for
Campbell County, 1975-2000 512
9-9 Expected Habitat Quality for Animal Groups
Following Attempts to Rehabilitate Severely
Disturbed Lands to Perennial Grasslands 542
10-1 The Colstrip Scenario Area 550
10-2 The Location of Energy Development Facilities
at Colstrip 551
10-3 Important Hydrologic Features of the Colstrip
Scenario Area 572
10-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
Colstrip Scenario 581
10-5 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the
Colstrip Scenario 582
10-6 Transportation Facilities in the Rosebud County
Area 598
10-7 Population Estimates for Rosebud County 601
10-8 Projected Number of Households, Elementary and
Secondary School Children in Rosebud County,
1975-2000 607
10-9 Projected Income Distribution for Rosebud County,
1975-2000 612
xijc
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10-10 Population Estimates for Billings and Miles City,
1975-2000
11-1 The Beulah Scenario Area
11-2 Energy Facilities in the Beulah Scenario 651
11-3 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the
Rifle Scenario ^72
11-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
Beulah Scenario
11-5 Population Estimates for Beulah Scenario Area,
1975-2000 702
11-6 Population Estimates for Oliver and McLean
Counties and Bismarck-Mandan, 1980-2000 703
11-7 Projected Number of Households, Elementary, and
Secondary School Children in Mercer County,
1975-2000 706
12-1 Upper Colorado River Basin 764
12-2 Subbasins of the Missouri River Basin 781
12-3 Oil Shale (Mine, Retort, and Upgrade), Cash Flow,
Annual, All Plants Opening During 1976-2005 849
12-4 Coal Gasification Plants, Cash Flow, Annual, All
Plants Opening 1976-2004 850
12-5 Surface Coal Mines, Cash Flow, Annual, All Mines
Opening 1976-2004 851
12-6 Mine-Mouth Power, Cash Flow, Annual, All Plants
Opening During 1976-2008 852
12-7 Annual Rate of Investment for Western Energy
Systems 855
12-8 Unit Train Coal Energy Transported from Western
Region in the Year 2000 (Nominal Demand Case) 918
12-9 2000 Coal Slurry Pipeline Energy Transported from
Western Region, Nominal Demand Case 925
12-10 2000 High-Btu Gas Transmission from Western
Region, Nominal Demand Case 928
12-11 2000 Liquid Pipeline (Crude Oil, Shale Oil, Coal
Syncrude) Energy Transported from Western
Region, Nominal Demand Case 929
12-12 2000 Electricity Transmitted from Western Region,
Nominal Demand Case 931
12-13 Expected Day-Night Human Responses at Various
Noise Levels , 940
12-14 Noise Level of Passing Coal Train 942
12-15 Day-Night Average Sound Level (Ldn) as a Function
of Coal Train Frequency and Coal Tonnage 944
12-16 Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Construc-
tion 945
12-17 Typical Coal Mining Scenario 947
12-18 Radiated Noise for Typical Coal Mining Operation 949
12-19 Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Operation 951
xx
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LIST OF TABLES
VOLUME II
Page
6-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at
Kaiparowits/Escalante 160
6-2 Selected Characteristics of the Kaiparowits/
Escalante Area 161
6-3 Air Quality Measurements at Page 163
6-4 Emissions from Power Plants 166
6-5 Pollution Concentrations from Kaiparowits Power
Plant 168
6-6 Pollution Concentrations from Escalante Power
Plant 169
6-7 Pollution Concentrations at Kaiparowits New
Town in 1990 172
6-8 Concentrations from Mineral Emissions Control 177
6-9 Alternatives for Meeting Class II Increments 178
6-10 Groundwater Quality 182
6-11 Storage and Water Quality Data for Lake Powell 183
6-12 Estimated 1975 Surface Water Resources and Uses
for Utah in the Upper Colorado River Basin 184
6-13 Water Requirements for Energy Development at
Kaiparowits/Escalante 188
6-14 Expected Increases in Water Supply Requirements 189
6-15 Residuals from Electric Power Generation at
Kaiparowits/Escalante 191
6-16 Expected Increase in Wastewater Flows 192
6-17 Population of Kane and Garfield Counties and
County Seats, 1940-1974 199
6-18 Employment Distribution in Kaiparowits Areas,
1974 200
6-19 Construction and Operation Employment for
Kaiparowits Scenario, 1975-2000 203
6-20 Population Estimates for Page and Communities in
Kane County, 1975-2000 204
6-21 Population Estimates for Communities in Garfield
County, 1975-2000 206
6-22 Age-Sex Distribution for Page and Kane and
Garfield Counties 207
6-23 Estimated Housing Demand in Kane and Garfield
Counties and Page, 1975-2000 207
6-24 Estimated School Enrollment in Kane and Garfield
Counties and Page 210
xxi
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page
6-25 Finance Prospects for Kane and Garfield Counties
and Page Districts, 1975-2000 212
6-26 Projected Income Distribution for Kane and
Garfield Counties 214
6-27 Property Tax Revenues 219
6-28 Allocation of Federal Coal Royalties 220
6-29 Revenue from Sales and Use Taxes 221
6-30 Government Fees for Service 221
6-31 Summary of Revenues from Energy Development 222
6-32 Capital Requirements of Local Governments of
QuinQuennia 223
6-33 Increases in Operating Expenditures of Selected
Levels of Government 223
6-34 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Commu-
nities, Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario 232
6-35 Vegetation Losses: Kaiparowits/Escalante
Scenario 233
6-36 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological
Impacts 243
6-37 Forecast of Status of Selected Species 244
7-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Navajo/
Farmington 251
7-2 Selected Characteristics of the Navajo/Farmington
Area 253
7-3 Emissions from Facilities 258
7-4 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant and Mine 259
7-5 Pollution Concentrations at Farmington 263
7-6 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
Combination 264
7-7 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasifica-
tion Plant/Mine Combination 265
7-8 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefaction
Plant/Mine Combination 267
7-9 Salt Deposition Rates 272
7-10 Concentrations from Minimal Emission Controls 273
7-11 Alternatives for Meeting Class II Increments 275
7-12 Flow Characteristics of the San Juan River 279
7-13 Operating Conditions for Navajo Reservoir 279
7-14 present and Projected Water Allocations for the
San Juan River 280
7-15 Water Quality in San Juan River for 1973 282
7-16 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities 283
7-17 Water Requirements for Reclamation 284
7-18 Expected Increase in Water Requirements above
1975 Base Level 287
7-19 Residual Generation from Technologies at Navajo/
Farmington 288
7-20 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns
Affected by the Navajo Scenario 289
7-21 Expected Increases in Wastewater Flow " 290
XXll
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Page
7-22 Employment Distribution in San Juan County, 1973 300
7-23 New Employment in San Juan County from Energy
Development and Navajo Indian Irrigation
Project, 1975-2000 302
7-24 Assumed Secondary/Basic Employment Multipliers
for Navajo/Farmington Scenario, 1976-2000 303
7-25 Population Estimates for San Juan County 305
7-26 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in
San Juan County, 1975-2000 309
7-27 Projected Income Distribution for San Juan
County, 1975-2000 314
7-28 Fiscal Impacts on Navajo Tribal Government 317
7-29 projected Additional Utility Fees and Property
Taxes, Anglo Communities 318
7-30 Projected Additional Income and Sales Taxes 319
7-31 Projected Tax Revenues, Privilege and Severance
Taxes 319
7-32 Projected Total Revenues from all Sources 320
7-33 Summary of Additional Local Governmental
Expenditures and Revenues, Off-Reservation 320
7-34 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities,
Navajo/Farmington Scenario 328
7-35 Desert Land Consumption, Navajo/Farmington
Scenario 331
7-36 Potential Livestock Production Foregone 341
7-37 Forecast of Status of Selected Species 343
7-38 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological
Impacts 345
8-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Rifle 353
8-2 Selected Characteristics of the Rifle Area 355
8-3 'Emissions from Facilities 358
8-4 Pollution Concentrations from a 1,000 Megawatt
Power Plant 359
8-5 Pollution Concentrations at Rifle 363
8-6 Pollution Concentrations from a 50,000 Barrels
Per Day TOSCO II Plant 364
8-7 Pollution Concentrations from a 100,000 Barrels
Per Day TOSCO II Plant 365
8-8 Pollution Concentrations at Grand Valley, 1990 367
8-9 Salt Deposition Rates 370
8^-10 Concentrations from Minimal Emission Controls 372
8-11 Required Emission Removal to Meet Ambient
Standards 373
8-12 Required Emission Removal to Meet Class II
Increments 373
8-13 Plant Capacity to Attain Ambient Standards 374
8-14 Plant Capacity to Attain Class II Increments. 374
8-15 Water Use in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Portion of the State of Colorado 379
8-16 Water Quality and Flow for Rifle Scenario 380
xxiii
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page
8-17 Water Requirements for Energy Development 381
8-18 Water Requirements for Reclamation 382
8-19 Increased Municipal Water Supply Requirements 384
8-20 Residuals Generated by Energy Facilities at Rifle 385
8-21 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns
Affected by the Rifle Scenario 386
8-22 Expected Increases in Wastewater Flow 387
8-23 Populations of Counties and Towns in the Rifle
Vicinity 397
8-24 Employment Distribution by Industry, Garfield
and Rio Blanco, 1970 398
8-25 Land Use Regulations, Garfield and Rio Blanco
Counties and Local Municipalities, 1975 399
8-26 Construction and Operation Employment for Rifle
Scenario, 1975-2000 401
8-27 Population Estimates for Garfield and Rio Blanco
Counties and Grand Junction, 1975-2000 403
8-28 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Garfield and
Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 405
8-29 Number of Households and School Enrollment in
Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 405
8-30 Distribution of New Housing Needs by Type of
Dwelling 407
8-31 School District Finance Prospects for Garfield
and Rio Blanco County Districts, 1975-2000 408
8-32 Land Required for Population-Related Development
in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties 409
8-33 Projected Income Distribution for Garfield and
Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 411
8-34 Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for
Public Services in Garfield and Rio Blanco
County Communities, 1975-2000 415
8-35 Additional Operating Expenditures for Municipal
Government in Garfield and Rio Blanco
Counties, 1980-2000 416
8-36 Mill Levies and Per-Capita Taxes for Jurisdictions
in the Rifle Area 417
8-37 Property Tax Revenues from Energy Facilities 418
8-38 Revenues from Residential and Commercial Property
Taxes and Municipal Utility Fees, Selected
Jurisdictions 419
8-39 New Sales Tax Revenues 420
8-40 Summary of Revenues Due to Energy Facilities 420
8-41 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communi-
ties, Rifle Scenario -426
8-42 Vegetation Losses: Rifle Scenario 427
8-43 Forecasts of Status of Selected Species 438
8-44 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological
Impacts 440
xxiv
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Page
9-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Gillette 446
9-2 Selected Characteristics of the Gillette Area 448
9-3 Emissions from Facilities 451
9-4 Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal
Rail Transport 453
9-5 Pollution Concentrations from Natural Gas
Production 454
9-6 Pollution Concentrations at Gillette 456
9-7 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
Combination 457
9-8 Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal
Slurry Line 458
9-9 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Gasification
Plant/Mine Combination 459
9-10 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasifica-
tion Plant/Mine Combination 462
9-11 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefac-
tion Plant/Mine Combination 463
9-12 Salt Deposition Rates 467
9-13 Selected Trace Element Composition of Gillette 469
9-14 Concentrations from Minimal Emission Controls 470
9-15 Required Emission Removal for Meeting Class II
Increments 471
9-16 Legal Division of Flow, Yellowstone River
Tributaries 475
9-17 Water Use and Availability for Transport for
Energy Development at Gillette 477
9-18 Water Requirements for Energy Development 478
9-19 Water Requirements for Reclamation 480
9-20 Storage, Flow, and Quality Data for Possible Water
Diversion Points to Supply Development at
Gillette 482
9-21 Alternative Water Supply Costs for Gillette 483
9-22 Water Requirements for Increased Population Growth 484
9-23 Effluents from Technologies Used at Gillette 486
9-24 Uranium Mine Water Composition 487
9-25 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities
Affected by Energy Development at Gillette 488
9-26 Expected Increases in Wastewater Flows 488
9-27 Employment Distribution by Industry for 1970 and
1975 498
9-28 New Employment in Energy Development in Campbell
County, 1975-2000 501
9-29 Employment and Population Multipliers for Gillette
Scenario Population Estimates 502
9-30 Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette,
and Casper, 1974-2000 503
9-31 Projected Age-Sex Distribution of Campbell County,
1975-2000 506
XXV
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Page
9-32 Estimated Number of Households and School
Enrollment in Campbell County, 1975-2000 506
9-33 Distribution of New Housing by Type of Dwelling 508
9-34 School District Finance Needs for Campbell county,
1975-2000 509
9-35 Land Required for population-Related Development
in Campbell County 510
9-36 Projected Income Distribution for Campbell
County, 1975-2000 511
9-37 Projected New Capital Expenditures Required for
Public Services in Gillette, 1975-2000 514
9-38 Necessary Operating Expenditures of Gillette 515
9-39 New Property Tax Revenues, Campbell County 517
9-40 Severance Taxes and Public Royalties 518
9-41 Additional Population-Related Taxes and Fees 519
9-42 New Revenue from Energy Development, by Level of
Government 520
9-43 Physician Needs in Campbell County, 1975-2000 521
9-44 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communi-
ties, Gillette Scenario 528
9-45 Land Consumption: Gillette Scenario 530
9-46 Potential Livestock Production Foregone:
Gillette Scenario 538
9-47 Habitat Groups of Selected Animals Representative
of the Study Area 541
9-48 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological
Impacts 543
9-49 Forecast of Status of Selected Species 544
10-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Colstrip 552
10-2 Selected Characteristics of the Colstrip Area 553
10-3 Emissions from Facilities 556
10-4 Pollution Concentrations at Colstrip 558
10-5 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
Combination 559
10-6 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant/Mine
Combination 560
10-7 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Plant 563
10-8 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant/Mine
Combination 564
10-9 Salt Deposition Rate 568
10-10 Concentrations from Minimal Emission Controls 570
10-11 " Required Removal to Meet Class II Increments 570
10-12 Selected Flow Data for the Upper Missouri and
Yellowstone Rivers 575
10-13 Estimated 1975 Surface-Water Situation for
Selected Areas in Montana 577
10-14 Selected Water Quality Parameters for Major
Southeastern Rivers 573
10-15 Water Requirements for the Energy Facilities in
the Colstrip Area in the Year 2000 579
xx vi
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Page
10-16 Water Requirements for Reclamation 583
10-17 Water Requirements for Increased Population Growth 584
10-18 Residual Generation from Technologies at Colstrip 585
10-19 Increased Wastewater from Population Growth 587
10-20 Wastewater Treatment characteristics for the
Colstrip Scenario 588
10-21 Population of Rosebud County, Colstrip and
Forsyth, 1940-1975 ' 596
10-22 Employment Distribution in Rosebud County, 1970 597
10-23 Construction and Operation Employment for Colstrip
Scenario, 1975-2000 600
10-24 Employment and Population Multipliers for Colstrip
Scenario Population Estimates 602
10-25 Assumed Population Attraction or Capture Rates
Used to Allocate Population Within Rosebud
County 603
10-26 Population Estimates for Rosebud County,
1975-2000 603
10-27 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Rosebud County,
1975-2000 605
10-28 Estimated Number of Households and School Enroll-
ment, in Rosebud County, 1975-2000 606
10-29 School Finance Conditions for Rosebud County's
Districts, 1975-2000 609
10-30 Projected Income Distribution for Rosebud County,
1975-2000 611
10-31 Projected Population for Billings Area and Miles
City, 1975-2000 613
10-32 Projected New Capital Expenditures Required in
Forsyth and Ashland, 1975-2000 615
10-33 Projected Operating Expenditures of Forsyth and
Ashland, 1980-2000 616
10-34 Severance Tax Revenues from Colstrip Scenario
Energy Development 618
10-35 Projected Property Valuation in Rosebud County 619
10-36 Projected Property Tax Receipts in Rosebud County 620
10-37 New State Income Tax Receipts from Energy
Development 621
10-38 Distribution of New Tax Revenues from Colstrip
Scenario Development 622
10-39 Consolidated Fiscal Balance, Town of Forsyth
and Rosebud County, 1976-1985 623
10-40 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities,
Colstrip Scenario 629
10-41 Potential Livestock Production Foregone: Colstrip
Scenario 641
10-42 Provisional Population Forecasts for Selected
Major Species: Colstrip Scenario 642
10-43 Summary of Major Ecological Impacts 646
xxvn
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Page
11-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at the
Beulah Area 652
11-2 Selected Characteristics of the Beulah Area 653
11-3 Emissions from Facilities 656
11-4 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
Combination 658
11-5 Pollution Concentrations at Beulah 660
11-6 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant/Mine
Combination 661
11-7 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant/Mine
Combination 663
11-8 Salt Deposition Rate 668
11-9 Concentrations from Minimal Emission Controls 669
11-10 Alternatives for Meeting Class II Increments 670
11-11 Reservoir Characteristics - Lake Sakakawea 674
11-12 Stream Flow Data in the Beulah Scenario Area 675
11-13 Water Uses Above Lake Sakakawea 676
11-14 Water Quality Data for the Beulah Scenario 677
11-15 Water Requirements for Energy Development 679
11-16 Water Requirements for Reclamation 681
11-17 Water Requirements forlncreased Population 682
11-18 Residual Generation from Technologies Used at
Beulah 683
11-19 Expected Increases in Wastewater Flows 684
11-20 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities
Affected by Beulah Scenario 685
11-21 Population, Mercer County and North Dakota,
1950-1970 694
11-22 Employment by Industry Group in Mercer County, 1970 695
11-23 Construction and Operation Employment in Beulah
Energy Development Scenario, 1975-2000 698
11-24 Employment and Population Multipliers in the
Beulah Scenario 699
11-25 Population Estimates for the Beulah Scenario Area,
1975-2000 701
11-26 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Mercer County,
1975-2000 704
11-27 Number of Households and School Enrollment in
Mercer County, 1975-2000 705
11-28 Distribution of New Housing Needs by Type of
Dwelling 707
11-29 School Finance Needs for Mercer County and
Bismarck-Mandan, 1975-2000 708
11-30 Projected Income Distribution for Mercer County,
1975-2000 710
11-31 Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for
Public Services in Selected North Dakota
Communities, 1975-2000 .712
11-32 Necessary Operating Expenditures of Municipal
Governments in Selected Communities, 1980-2000 713
xxviii
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Page
11-33 Allocation of Taxes Levied Directly on Energy
Facilities, Mercer County 716
11-34 Selected Characteristic Species of Major Beulah
Scenario Biological Communities 722
11-35 Habitat Loss Over Time: Beulah Scenario 724
11-36 Agricultural Production Foregone 732
11-37 Forecast for Selected Species for the Beulah
Scenario 733
11-38 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological
Impacts 736
12-1 Projection of Western Energy Resource Production
Nominal Demand Case 743
12-2 Projection of Western Energy Resource Production
Low Demand Case 744
12-3 Projection of Western Energy Resource Production
Low Nuclear Availability Case 745
12-4 Regional Air Quality and National Standards 747
12-5 Emissions from Energy Facilities 750
12-6 Sub-Area Emissions, 1975 and 2000 751
12-7 Emission Increases, 1975-2000 752
12-8 Emission Densities from Energy Facilities 754
12-9 Projected Emissions in Six Western States 756
12-10 Emissions in Selected States in 1972 757
12-11 Projected Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Without
Scrubbers 759
12-12 Projected Emissions Densities in Six Western
States 759
12-13 Projected Sulfur Dioxide Emission Densities
Without Scrubbers 759
12-14 Estimated 1974 Depletions 766
12-15 Average Dissolved Solids Concentrations in
Streams of the Upper Colorado Region,
1941-1972 768
12-16 Projected Water Demand Upon the Upper Colorado
River Basin for Energy Development 772
12-17 Water Requirements for Population Increases in
the Upper Colorado River Basin 772
12-18 industrial Water Demand Versus Supply for
Selected River Basins 774
12-19 Surface Acreage Ultimately Disturbed by Mining
in the Upper Colorado River Basin 777
12-20 Water Consumed and Residuals Generated for
Standard Size Plants in Each State of Western
Region 779
12-21 Flow in Major Streams in the Fort Union Coal
Region of the Upper Missouri River Basin 782
12-22 Water Supply and Use in the Upper Missouri 783
12-23 Water Quality of Selected Rivers in the Fort
Union Coal Area of the Upper Missouri River
Basin 784
xx ix
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Page
12-24 Allocation of Flows by Interstate Water Compacts
for Streams Within the Fort Union Coal Region
12-25 Projected Water Demand for Energy Development in
Upper Missouri River Basin
12-26 Water Requirements for Population Increases in
the Upper Missouri River Basin
12-27 Surface Acreage Ultimately Disturbed by Mining
in the Upper Missouri River Basin
12-28 Secondary/Basic Employment Multipliers and
Population/Employee Multipliers for Operation
Employment
12-29 Construction-Related Population Increases After
1975 in Eight-State Region
12-30 Overall (Construction Plus Operation) Expected
Population Increases After 1975 Due to Energy
Development in Eight-State Region
12-31 Permanent Population Additions After 1975 for
Energy Areas of Six Western States, for Three
Scenarios
12-32 Population Increases After 1975 Due to Energy
Development in Western States
12-33 Comparison of Population Increases for Nominal
Case Energy Development with OBERS Population
Projections, 1980-2000
12-34 Changes in Annual Personal Income, Six Western
States, Nominal Case Energy Development
12-35 Percentage of Income Derived from Economic
Sectors in the Western Region, 1972
12-36 Local Capital Expenditure Needs for Nominal Case
Development, 1975-2000
12-37 Annual Operating Expenditures of Local Governments
In Energy Areas of Six Western States, 1980-
2000, for Nominal Case Development
12-38 Additional Annual Capital and Operating Expendi-
tures of State Governments, 1980-2000, for
Nominal Case Development
12-39 Tax Rates on Energy Extraction and Conversion
12-40 State and Local Taxes on Energy Facilities,
Nominal Case Development, 1990
12-41 New Land Requirements for Energy Facilities and
Urban Land for Nominal Case, 1980-2000
12-42 Potential Impacts .on the Quality of Life
12-43 Additional Energy Development from the West
Assumed in SEAS Simulation
12-44 Economic Variables Most Affected by Energy
Development
12-45 Differences in Outputs Between Base Case and
High Energy Demand Case, Industries Most
Affected, 1980-1985
12-46 Location of Economic Growth Industries
785
788
789
792
796
798
799
800
803
805
807
809
813
813
814
815
816
818
823
830
831
835
837
XXX
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Page
12-47 Differences in Outputs Between Base Case and
High Energy Demand with Electrical Generation,
Industries Most Affected, 1985 838
12-48 Demand for Skilled and Professional Personnel,
Western Region, Post-1975 Facilities 840
12-49 1985 Western Energy Demand for Operational
Labor as Percentage.of 1970 National Market 842
12-50 Demand for Skilled and Professional Personnel,
Western Regional 844
12-51 1985 Western Energy Demand for Construction
Labor as Percentage of 1970 National Market 845
12-52 1985 Western Energy Demand for Selected Occupa-
tions in Construction, Mining, Petroleum
Refining, and Electric Utilities 846
12-53 Cash Flow, 1976-2000, Five Major Energy Systems
in Western States ' ' 853
12-54 Values of Facilities Placed in Operation by
State, 1975-1990 and 1990-2000, Under Three
Energy Scenarios 853
12-55 Investment Costs for Energy Transport, 1975-2000 856
12-56 Investments for Western Energy Compared to
National New Plant Investments 858
12-57 Firms Representative of Those Engaged in Western
Energy Development, and Their Fixed Assets 862
12-58 Expected Population Increases Due to Nominal
Case Development in Selected States and the
Eight-State Region 873
12-59 Major Back-Country Areas Likely to Receive
Increased Pressure Due to Energy Development 874
12-60 Surface Acreage Ultimately Disturbed by Mining 877
12-61 Selected Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations Which
Experimentally Produced Acute Injury in
Western Plant Species 890
12-62 Health Effects and Assessment Projectives for
Sulfates 900
12-63 Peak Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations for Scenario
Locations, 1990 902
12-64 Radioactivity in Coal 907
12-65 Estimated Annual Average Airborne Particulate
Matter 909
12-66 Estimated Annual Average Airborne Radioactivity
;,«: Due to Coal Combustion in 1990 and 2000 909
12-67 Estimated Individual Lung Doses Due to Atmos-
pheric Radioactivity Produced by Coal Combus-
tion in Page, Escalante, and Glen Canyon 910
12-68 Unit Trains Required for Three Levels of
Development 922
12-69 Unit Train Requirements for Extreme Cases 923
12-70 Sound Levels Required to Protect Public Health
and Welfare 937
XXXI
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Page
12-71 Sound Levels Permitting Speech Communications 938
12-72 Quality of Telephone Usage in the Presence of
Steady-State Masking Noise 939
12-73 Representative Sound Level for Construction
Noise Sources 945
12-74 Representative Sound Level for Mining Noise
Sources 948
12-75 Representative Sound Level for Coal-Fired Power
Plant Noise Sources 950
12-76 Categories of Aesthetic Impacts 953
xxxii
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PART II
DETAILED ANALYSES AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS
INTRODUCTION
In this part of the draft first year progress report, the
detailed impact analyses and a more extended discussion of
selected problems and issues are presented. Both have been
described in Part I and the results of the impact analyses and
discussion of problems and issues have been summarized in Chap-
ters 3 and 4.
Impact Analyses
The results of the detailed impact analyses are reported in
Chapters 6 through 12. As described briefly in Chapter 3 and in
detail in the First Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource"Development,! seven scenarios postulating
hypothetical patterns of energy development in the western U.S.
were used to structure the impact analyses described in this
report. These seven scenarios were constructed to provide a
vehicle for analyzing a broad range of impacts and policies and
a basis for the formulation of generalizations about the conse-
quences of various patterns, rates, and levels of development of
western energy resources.2 six of seven scenarios postulate the
development of one or more energy resources at specific sites
using specified combinations of technological alternatives. The
seventh covers the eight-state study area made up of Arizona,
Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North and South Dakota, Utah, and
Wyoming.
Chapters 6 through 12 report the results of the site-
specific and regional impact analyses. Each of these chapters
focuses on a single scenario and begins with an overview descrip-
tion of the hypothetical energy development specified in the
scenario and the conditions existing at the site or within the
white, Irvin L.» et al. First Year Work Plan for a Tech-
nology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development. Wash-
ington: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.
2
Six resources are included in the study: coal, oil shale,
oil, natural gas, uranium, and geothermal.
154
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area where the hypothetical development is to take place. Each
development is assumed to produce a beneficial energy output.
Both positive and negative impacts likely to result from this
development are identified, described, and analyzed.
The categories used in analyzing site-specific impacts are
air, water, ecological, and social, economic, and political. In
addition, transporation, noise, health effects, aesthetics,
energy, personnel resources, and materials and equipment impacts
are analyzed in the regional scenario. In several of these
categories, both positive and negative impacts can be identified.
However, by their very nature, some categories (such as air
quality) focus primarily on negative impacts.
Although separated for purposes of analysis, impact cate-
gories obviously interact with and thus affect one another. For
example, population increases may generate increased air emis-
sions which in turn may affect health and the delivery of health
services. When appropriate, the analyses reported in the fol-
lowing chapters attempt to take these interactive relationships
into account by introducing an impact from one category into the
analysis of another category of impacts. (However, as mentioned
earlier, there has not been adequate time for this to be done
systematically during the first year.) In a final section in
each chapter, impacts are summarized, and selected technological
alternatives which would enhance, mitigate, or eliminate some of
these impacts are discussed.
During the first year technology assessment (TA), emphasis
was placed on structuring the various impact analyses, insuring
that significant impacts were not being overlooked, and devel-
oping a framework that would allow meaningful integration and
discussion of findings for the range of governmental and non-
governmental audiences that this TA is intended and will be ,
extended in breadth and depth during the second and third years.
Discussion of Problems and Issues
As indicated in Chapter 2, policy analysis during the first
year has been limited to the preliminary stage of beginning to
identify and define some of the major problems and issues with
which policymakers making western energy resource development
policies will have to deal. It is only now at the end of the
first year that the preliminary integration of results in Chap-
ters 3 and 6 through 12 have become available to inform the more
Readers are urged to call errors of fact or interpreta-
tion, better and/or additional data sources, and the avail-
ability of more adequate analytical tools to the attention of
the Science and Public Policy Program-Radian research team.
155
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focused analyses required to achieve the policy purposes of this
TA. Consequently, the discussion of problems and issues in
Chapter 13 are limited in scope and are intended to do no more
than provide background information that will be useful as the
research team shifts its primary emphasis from impact analysis
to policy analysis.
156
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CHAPTER 6
THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA
6.1 INTRODUCTION
The Kaiparowits/Escalante area of southern Utah is shown in
Figure 6-1. The hypothetical energy resource development pro-
posed in the scenario for this area consists of underground coal
mining, mine-mouth electrical power generation, and export of
electrical power via extra-high voltage transmission lines to
Arizona, California, and elsewhere in Utah.l The location of
these facilities is • shown in Figure 6-2.
In this scenario, construction of the first of two 3,000
megawatts-electric generating plants began during 1975. The
first plant will come on-line in 1983 and the second in 1987.
Development of the coal mines to supply these plants will begin
in 1976, and full production is scheduled for 1987. Details on
Kaiparowits/Escalante coal, technological alternatives, and the
scenario development schedule are summarized in Table 6-1.
The Kaiparowits/Escalante area is generally characterized by
its sparse, homogeneous population, low per-capita income,
limited seasonal precipitation, a topography which changes from
benchlands in the south to mountains in the north, and vegetation
which changes from desert shrubs in the south to pinyon-juniper
woodlands and coniferous forests at higher elevations in the
north. The area is bounded by several national parks and forests,
and the federal government is a major landowner on the plateau.
While this hypothetical development closely parallels
facilities proposed by Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas
and Electric, and Arizona Public Service (now cancelled) and the
Intermountain Power Project in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area,
the development identified here is hypothetical. As with the
others, the scenario was used to structure the assessment of a
particular combination of technologies and existing conditions.
2
These are: Bryce Canyon, Zion, Canyonlands, and Capitol
Reef National Parks; Glen Canyon National Recreation Area; and
Dixie and Kaibab National Forests.
157
-------
Topography, in feet
Above 9000
7000-9000
5000-7000
4000-5000
3000-4000
FIGURE 6-1: THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA OF SOUTHERN UTAH
158
-------
lilllllllmlllllllllllliil Conveyor
FIGURE 6-2:
THE LOCATION OF HYPOTHESIZED ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE KAIPAROWITS/
ESCALANTE AREA
159
-------
TABLE 6-1:
RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES
AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE
Resources
Coal (billions of tons)
Resources 40
Proved Reserves 8
Technologies
Extraction
Sixteen underground roora-
and-pillar mines using
continuous miners to
produce 1.6 million tons
each per year
Conversion
Two 3,000-MWe power plants,
each consisting of four 750-kWa
turbine generators of 34% plant
efficiency and equipped with
997. efficient electrostatic
precipitators, 807» efficient
limestone scrubbers, and wet
forced-draft cooling towers
Transportation
Coal
Conveyor belt from mines to
each power plant (two main
conveyors)
Electricity
Two EHV lines for each 3,000
MWe plant
Characteris tics
Coal8
Heat Content 10,000 Btu's/lb
Moisture 14 %
Volatile Matter 44 7,
Fixed Carbon 40 7,
Ash 9 7.
Sulfur 0.57,
Facility
Size
1.6 MMtpy
1.6 MMtpy
3.2 MMtpy
4.8 MMtpy
1.6 MMtpy
1.6 MMtpy
3.2 MMtpy
4.8 MMtpy
750 kWe
750 kWe
1,500 kWe
750 kWe
750 kWe
1,500 kWe
765 kV
765 kV
Completion
Date
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1980
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1980
1984
1980
1984
Location
Kaiparowits
Kaiparowits
Kaiparowits
Kaiparowits
Escalante
Escalante
Escalante
Escalante
Kaiparowits
Kaiparowits
Kaiparowits
Escalante
Escalante
Escalante
Kaiparowits
Escalante
Kaiparowits
Escalante
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
EHV = extra-high voltage
kV = kilovolt
kWe » kilowatt-electric
MMtpy = million metric tons
per year
MWe «• megawatts-electric
HU.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Envi-
ronmental Impact Statement: Kaiparowits Project. 5 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
160
-------
The major sectors of economic activity are government,
wholesale and retail trade, and services related to tourism.
Ranching is the major agricultural activity. Industrial devel-
opment has been limited.l
Groundwater and surface water are available in the area, the
latter primarily from the Colorado River and Lake Powell. Air
quality in the area is good, the major present pollutant being
blowing dust.
Descriptive characteristics of the area are summarized in
Table 6-2. Elaborations of these characteristics are introduced
throughout the chapter as required by the impact analyses being
discussed.
TABLE 6-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
Air Stability
Vegetation
4,000-7,000 feet
6-10 inches annually in the south
20 inches annually in the north
Frequently prolonged winter stagnation
Salt desert shrub in the south;
pinyon pine-juniper in the north
Social and Economic3
Land Ownership
Federal
State
City and County
Private
Population Density
Unemployment'3
Kane County
Garfield County
Income
87
8
%
%
5 %
.7 per square mile
7 %
15 %
$2,900 per capita annual
- = approximately
a!970 data, Garfield and Kane Counties,
b!974 data.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
161
-------
6.2 AIR IMPACTS
6.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Air quality in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area is currently
affected by the Navajo power plant located near Page, Arizona
(Figure 6-1). Measurements of concentrations of criteria pollu-
tants1 taken prior to 1975 indicated nitrogen dioxide (N02) and
sulfur dioxide (802) below detection thresholds of the monitoring
equipment.2 However, 24-hour particulate concentrations, ranging
from 1 to 543 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/ra3), violate federal
ambient standards (150 yg/m3) during high winds due to blowing
dust. Monthly average measurements of photo-chemical oxidants
ranged from 22 to 74 yg/m3, well below the federal standard of
160 yg/m3.3
Concentrations of four pollutants measured at Page, Arizona
during 1970-1974 are summarized in Table 6-3.4 Based on these
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: carbon monoxide, non-methane hydro-
carbons (HC), nitrogen dioxide, oxidants, particulates, and
sulfur dioxide. Although technically only non-methane hydro-
carbons are covered by the standards, the more inclusive term
"hydrocarbons" is generally used. The HC standard serves as a
guide for implementation plans to achieve oxidant standards.
2
See Dames and Moore. Air Quality Monitoring and Meteo-
rology, Navajo Generating Station—1974, Status Report, March 15,
1975, as cited in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed
Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of
Land Management, 1976; and Walther, E.G., et al. Air Quality in
the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No.
3. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1974. '
Although many oxidants exist in the atmosphere, only ozone
is measured as a criteria pollutants.
4
To a slight extent, 1974 concentrations reflect the contri-
bution of the Navajo power plant which became operational in 1974.
162
-------
TABLE 6-3:
AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS AT PAGE
(micrograms per cubic meter)
u>
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hourc
S02
Annual
24-hourc
3-hourc
N02
Annual
Oxidants
l-hourc
Year
1972
1973
1974
Level
Dames & Mcorea
29
27
28
Arizona^
31
52
48
Ranged from less than 1 to 543 yg/m3.
High concentrations primarily due to
soil dust.a
1973
1974
1970 to 1974
1973
1974
1973
1974
1973
1974
1972
NA
NA
26
NA
NA
39
68
NA
NA
84
1
8
NA
11
22
NA
NA
10
24
NA
Standards
(Federal & Utah)
Primary
75
260
80
365
NA
100
160
Secondary
60
150
NA
NA
1,300
100
160
NA = not available or not applicable
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
S02 = sulfur dioxide
yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
Data from: Dames and Moore. Air Quality Monitoring and Meteorology, Nava-jo
Generating Station—1974, Status Report, March 15, 1975, as cited in U.S., Depart-
ment of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact
Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project. 5 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau
'of Land Management, 1976.
-i_
Data from: Arizona, Department of Health Services, Bureau of Air Quality Control,
as cited in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final
Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake
"city, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976.
°Not to be exceeded more than once a year.
-------
measurements, annual average background levels in rural areas are
estimated to be;l
ug/m3
Particulates 20
Sulfur dioxide 10
Nitrogen dioxide 4
Oxidants (Ozone) 60
B. Meteorological Conditions
The terrain in the Kaiparowits plateau area of southern Utah
is topographically complex. Mesas, plateaus, mountains, hills,
canyons, and basins complicate airflow and pollutant dispersion.
This terrain can contribute to pollution concentrations which
approach ambient standards from elevated and ground-level emis-
sions sources.2 Highest concentrations will occur when a plume
impacts3 on elevated terrain during stable conditions and when
mixing of plumes is limited by temperature inversions at the plume
height. Worst-case dispersion conditions are associated with
stable conditions, low mixing depths, persistent wind direction,
and low wind speeds (less than 10 miles per hour).4 The fre-
quency with which these conditions occur varies by site.
Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavor-
able for pollution dispersion (i.e., they are stable) about 43
percent of the time. More favorable (unstable) conditions are
expected to occur about 20 percent of the time. However, these
unstable conditions can contribute to localized, short-term con-
centrations due to erratic plume movement (plume looping).
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Mea-
surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are
unknown, but high background HC levels have been measured at
other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Background
CO levels are assumed to be relatively low.
2
Elevated sources are tall stacks that emit pollutants
several hundred feet above ground. Ground-level sources include
towns, strip mines, and tank farms that emit pollutants close to
ground level.
Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes run into elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air
conditions.
4
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upper
boundary of pollution dispersion.
164
-------
6.2.2 Emissions Sources
The primary emission sources in our Kaiparowits/Escalante
scenario are two power plants, supporting underground mines, and
population increases. The largest of these sources are the four
750-megawatts electric (MWe) boilers at each power plant site.
The 75,000-barrel oil storage tank at the plant, with standard
floating roof construction, will emit up to 0.7 pound of hydro-
carbons per hour. Emissions from the underground coal mines are
expected to be negligible. However, emissions will originate
from coal piles, breaking and sizing operations, and transporta-
tion at the mines even though dust suppression (water spray) will
be used.l Pollution from energy-related population in the new
town will result primarily from automobiles. Concentrations have
been estimated from available data on average emissions per
person in several western cities.2
The power plants are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling
towers. Each cell circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons
per minute and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The
circulating water has a total dissolved solids content of 10,000
parts per million. This results in a salt emission rate of
21,200 pounds per year.
Table 6-4 displays emissions of five criteria pollutants
from the power plants. Most emissions originate from the plants
rather than their associated mines. By far the largest quan-
tities of pollution from these plants are nitrogen oxides.
6.2.3 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
The hypothetical Kaiparowits power plant will be under
construction throughout this period, and construction on the
Escalante plant begins in 1979. Few air quality impacts are
associated with the construction phase of these plants, although
The effectiveness of current dust suppression techniques is
uncertain. Research being conducted by EPA is investigating this
question and will be used to inform further impact analysis.
2
Refer to the Introduction to Part II for identification of
these cities and references to methods used to model urban meteo-
rological conditions. In this scenario, only concentrations for
the Kaiparowits new town are modeled.
165
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TABLE 6-4: EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANTS
Pollutant
Particulates
S02
NOX
CO
HC
Pounds Per Hour3
519
1,450
3,764
348
105
Pounds Per 106 Btu's
0.07
0.19
0.50
Btu = British thermal units
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
S02 = sulfur dioxide
NOX - nitrogen oxides
aThese data represent emissions per 750 megawatts-electric
boiler. Each plant in this scenario is hypothetically
equipped with four such boilers and runs at full load.
A detailed description of each facility is contained in
the Energy Resource Development Systems description to
be published as a separate report in 1977.
wind-blown dust may increase. Currently dust causes periodic
violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards.1
2. Pollution from Towns
Population increases in the area will be concentrated in
towns, including the Kaiparowits new town to be built north of
Glen Canyon City, Utah. In 1980, this town is projected to have
a population of approximately 3,350.2 increased emissions from a
town this size are expected to result in concentrations of par-
ticulates, hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), S02» and N02
only slightly higher than current background levels.3
Utah ambient standards are the same as federal standards.
Thus references to violations in this chapter include both state
and federal.
2
See Section 6.4.3 for a description of population increases.
3
Pollution concentrations from population increases were
computed under the assumption that urban emissions are directly
proportional to population. Computational procedures are elab-
orated in the Introduction to Part II.
166
-------
B. Impacts to 2000
1. Pollution from Facilities
The Kaiparowits power plant becomes operational in 1983 and
the Escalante plant in 1987. No additional facilities are
hypothesized for this scenario through the year 2000. Tables 6-5
and 6-6 summarize concentrations of four pollutants predicted to
be produced by the Kaiparowits and Escalante plants. These pol-
lutants (particulates, S02/ nitrogen dioxide, and HC) are regu-
lated by state and federal primary and secondary ambient air
quality standards which are also shown in Tables 6-5 and 6-6.1
This information indicates that both typical and peak concentra-
tions associated with the power plants, when added to existing
background levels, are below ambient standards.2
These tables also display Non-Significant Deterioriation
(NSD) increments, which are allowable increments of pollutants
that can be added to areas of relatively clear air (i.e., areas
with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan-
dards) .3 Class I increments, intended to protect the cleanest
areas such .as national parks, are the most restrictive.4
Although the Kaiparowits plant meets all allowable Class II
increments, concentrations from the Escalante plant exceed Class
Primary standards are designed to protect public health.
Secondary standards are designed to protect public welfare.
2
Interaction of the pollutants from these two plants
may occur if the wind blows directly from one plant to the
other. Short-term concentrations which result from inter-
action would be less than that caused by plume impaction
on high terrain, which lies in the opposite direction.
However, concentrations from plume interaction would produce
higher peak annual averages than would plume impaction.
These predicted peak levels are 9 yg/m^ of SO2 and 4.2
Wg/m3 of particulates. A sensitivity analysis of this siting
consideration will be performed during the remainder of the
study.
3
NSD increments apply only to particulates and, SC^.
EPA initially designated all NSD areas Class II and estab-
lished a petition and public hearing process for redesignating
areas Class I or Class III. A Class II designation is for areas
which have moderate, well-controlled energy or industrial devel-
opment and permits less deterioration than that allowed by
federal secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deterio-
ration to the level of secondary standards.
167
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TABLE 6-5:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM KAIPAROWITS POWER PLANT
(micro-grams per cubic meter)
oo
Pollutant
Averaging Time
{•articulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Annual
HCe
3-hour
Concentrations3
Background
20
10
4
unknown
Typical
2.3
6.4
19
1.4
Peak
Plant
1.6
18
4.4
51
229
11
46
Kaiparowits
0.1
4.4
0.1
8
12
0.1
1.1
Standards'3
Ambientc
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1.300
100
160
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class IX
10
30
15
100
700
HC = hydrocarbons
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant. Annual average background
levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations
from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual S02 levels.
Concentrations over Kaiparowits are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and secondary" refers to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and
welfare, respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded
more than once per year. Non-Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants
which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed
in detail in Chapter 14.
cThese are the federal and Utah state standards.
dlt is assumed that all HOx from plant sources is converted to NOj. Refer to the Introduction to part II.
°The 3-hour HC standard 10 measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 6-6:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM ESCALANTE POWER PLANT
(micro-grams per cubic meter)
H
cn
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24 -hour
S02
Annual
24 -hour
3-hour
Annual
HCe
3-hour
Concentrations*
Background
20
10
4
unknown
Typical
2.3
6.4
19
1.4
Peak
Plant
4
105
11.2
293
1,060
29.2
58
Escalante
0.1
16.8
0.4
48
95
0.9
0.7
Standards13
Ambient0
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
'5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
HC =
HOj
hydrocarbons
= nitrogen dioxide
303 " sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant. Annual average background levels
are considered to be the best estimate of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations from the
plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SO2 levels. Concentrations
over Escalante are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and secondary" refers to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once
per year. Non-Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to
areas of relatively clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
cThese are the federal and Utah state standards.
dlt ia assumed that all NOX from plant sources ia converted to N02- Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
eThe 3-hour HC standard ia measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
II increments for 24-hour particulates and SO2 and 3-hour SO2
levels. Both plants violate all Class I increments except for
annual particulates.
Since these plants exceed Class I increments, they would
have to be located far enough away from potential Class I areas
to allow emissions to be diluted by atmospheric mixing to the low
concentrations allowed by Class I increments. The distance
required for this dilution varies by facility type, size, emis-
sion controls, and meteorological conditions. In effect, this
requirement establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.
Due to the complex terrain in the Kaiparowits/Escalante
area, no one buffer zone size for potential Class I NSD areas can
be defined. However, the 3-hour SC>2 increment for potential
Class I areas may be exceeded in Bryce Canyon National Park,
located about 25 miles to the west.1 (Figure 6-3.) Other nearby
Class II areas which may be redesignated Class I include: Zion,
Capitol Reef, and Grand Canyon National Parks; Dixie and Kaibab
National Forests; and Grand Canyon National Recreation Area.3
2. Pollution from the Town
The Kaiparowits new town population is expected to increase
from 3,350 in 1980 to 6,940 in 1990 and 7,290 in 2000. This
growth will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations
due solely to urban sources. Table 6-7 shows predicted 1990
concentrations of five criteria pollutants measured in the center
of town and at a point 3 miles from the center of town.3 When
concentrations from urban sources are added to background levels
and to concentrations from the power plant (Tables 6-5 and 6-6),
the hydrocarbon levels exceed ambient standards.4 No other
standard is approached by these concentrations.
Current NSD increments are designed to restrict pollution
from large point sources (e.g., power plants), not from urban
This estimate is based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.
2
These are "potential" Class I areas both because their
current air quality makes them prime candidates for redesignation
and because recent Congressional legislation, although not
enacted into law, has singled out national parks, forests, and
recreation areas for mandatory Class I status.
Concentrations in 2000 will be about 5 percent higher than
for 1990.
4
Ambient hydrocarbon standards are violated regularly in
most urban areas.
170
-------
10
MILES
v
Existing Roads
;J! National Park or Recreation Area
FIGURE 6-3:
AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN
THE RIFLE SCENARIO
171
-------
TABLE 6-7:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT KAIPAROWITS NEW TOWN IN 1990
(micrograms per cubic meter)
-j
N)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24 -hour
3-hour
N02d
Annual
HCe
3 -hour
CO
8-hour
I -hour
Concentrations*
Background
20
20
10
10
10
4
unknown
unknown
Mid-Town Pointc
16
54
8
27
48
26
481
1,606
2.632
Rural Point
4
54
2
27
48
6
481
1.606
2,632
Standards13
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1 , 300
i fin
±\j\j
160
10,000
40,000
CO = carbon monoxide SO2 = sulfur dioxide
HC = hydrocarbons
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background
concentrations are taken from Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken
3 miles from the center of town.
"Primary and secondary" are federal and Utah ambient air quality standards designed
to protect the public health and welfare, respectively. Except for annual standards,
these limits are not to be exceeded more than once per year.
C1980 concentrations are only slightly higher than background. Concentrations in
2000 will be about 5 percent higher than 1990.
dlt is assumed that 50% of nitrogen oxide from urban sources is converted to NO2-
Refer to the introduction to Part II.
eThe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
sources (e.g., automobiles). Table 6-6 shows that particulate
concentrations solely from urban sources exceed Class II incre-
ments. Thus, if the same NSD criteria were applied to urban
sources as are currently applied to industrial sources, popula-
tion increases in the Kaiparowits new town would violate NSD
standards.
6.2.4 Other Air Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been made
to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may
affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years.
These categories of potential impacts are sulfates, oxidants,
fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling
tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.1
A. Sulfates
Very little knowledge exists about sulfate concentrations
likely to result from western energy development. In part, this
is attributable to the very small particle size (in the submicron
range) of sulfate products, which increases the difficulty of
modeling atmospheric concentrations. Some information is avail-
able on sulfate concentrations resulting from oil shale retorting
and coal gasification and is summarized in the air sections of
Chapters 7-11. Generally, sulfates are products of chemical
reactions in the atmosphere rather than emissions from energy
facilities. For example, sulfuric acid, derived from the oxida-
tion of SO2» can react with other components in the atmosphere to
produce such salts as ammonium sulfate.
B. Oxidants
Oxidants, which include compounds such as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine, can be
emitted from specific sources or formed in the atmosphere. For
example, oxidants can be formed when HC combine with nitrogen
oxides.
Under present air quality laws, only ozone is measured and
compared to ambient standards. Considerable uncertainty exists
concerning the potential impacts of other oxidants.
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during- the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitroge-
nous Compounds in the Environment, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1973.
173
-------
Too little is known about the actual conversion processes
which form oxidants to be able to predict concentrations from
power plants. However, the relatively low peak concentrations of
HC from the Kaiparowits (58 pg/m3) and Escalante (46 yg/mj)
plants suggest that an oxidant problem is unlikely to result from
that source alone. An oxidant problem is more likely to result
from the combination of background HC and the high levels of
nitrogen dioxide emitted in the power plant plume. Since back-
ground HC levels are unknown, the extent of this problem has not
been predicted.
Concentrations of HC over the Kaiparowits new town, which may be
three times higher than the federal standard by the year 2000, are also
likely to create an oxidant problem. Since oxidant formation may
occur relatively slowly (i.e. one or more hours) , this problem-will be
less when wind conditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates, those less than 3 microns in diameter,
are primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the plants.!
They are also produced by chemical reactions in the atmosphere
(e.g., sulfates and nitrates). Both sources can produce health
impacts and reduce visibility.
In this scenario, most of the fine particulates are ash
particles emitted by the power plants. Current information
suggests that particulate emissions controlled by electrostatic
precipitators (ESP) have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns
and uncontrolled particulates have a mean diameter of about 10
microns.2 In general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the
smaller the mean diameter of the particles remaining. The high-
efficiency ESP's (99-percent removal) in this scenario are esti-
mated to produce fine particulates which account for about 50
percent of the total particulate concentrations. Health effects
from fine particulates are discussed in Section 12-6.
D. Long-Range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-1.0 microns in
diameter) is that they reduce long-range visibility. Particulates
The time required to produce fine particulates by atmo-
spheric chemical reactions usually insures that they will form
considerable distances from the plant.
2
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California
Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974.
174
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suspended in the atmosphere scatter light, which reduces the
contrast between an object and its background eventually below
levels required by the human eye to distinguish the object from
the background. Estimates of visual ranges for this scenario are
based on empirical relationships between visual distance and fine
particulate concentrations.1
Visibility in the region of this scenario averages about 70
miles. Average visibility for an observer at Navajo point
looking northwest will decrease to 65 miles after the Kaiparowits
plant is in operation and to 63 miles after both plants are in
operation. Air stagnation episodes, most likely on winter
mornings, will cause further reductions.
E. Plume Opacity
Fine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although the 99-percent efficient
ESP hypothesized in this scenario will remove enough particulates
for power plants to meet emission standards, stack plumes would
probably still exceed the 20-percent opacity standard.2 Thus,
plumes will be visible at the stack exit and for some distance
downwind. A particulate removal efficiency of 99.5 percent would
meet the 20-percent opacity regulation.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
Salt deposition rates from cooling tower drift for the power
plants in this scenario are estimated to be about 80 pounds per
acre per year (Ib/acre/yr) out to a distance of about 1 mile.3
Extrapolation from empirical relationships to this scenario
are based on the Radian Corporation's professional judgment. For
an elaboration of the empirical relationships see: Charlson,
R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the Generality of
Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concentration and Light
Scatter." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 2 (September 1968),
pp. 455-464. Since the model is designed for urban areas, its
use in rural areas yields results that are only approximate.
2
The Federal New Source Performance Standard for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of
particulates per million British thermal units heat input. The
plume opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly
met as the particulate emissions standard because it would
require such high efficiencies (99.5) and thus would increase
electrostatic precipitators costs.
This estimate is based on the Radian Corporation's profes-
sional judgment.
175
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This will decrease rapidly to 7 Ib/acre/yr from 1 to 8 miles and
to 0.6 Ib/acre/yr from 8 to 23 miles. The Kaiparowits and
Escalante power plants are far enough apart (about 22 miles) so
that little interaction between cooling tower plumes will occur.
Impacts of salt deposition on vegetation are discussed in Section
6.5.
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
In southern Utah, fogging and/or icing conditions occur
infrequently during the spring, summer, and fall because the area
is normally very dry. Average relative humidity in the area
ranges between 37 and 50 percent during these seasons. In the
winter, the significantly higher relative humidities (73 percent
average) contribute to dense fogs which are common to the area.
Average subfreezing winter temperatures also create icing. Power
plants will worsen both these winter conditions and contribute to
occasional ice fogs (cold droplets which freeze on contact).
6.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
A. Air Quality
Two new 3,000-MWe power plants are hypothesized for the
Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario. No federal or state ambient
standard is expected to be violated by these facilities. However,
several NSD increments will be exceeded. Concentrations from the
plant at Escalante will exceed short-term Class II increments for
both particulates and S02» and concentrations from both plants
exceed Class I 24-hour particulate and all S02 increments. •'••
Although no one buffer zone can be established for these plants
because of the complex terrain in the area, several nearby
national parks, forests, and recreation areas are potential Class
I areas.
Population increases in the Kaiparowits new town will add to
and create pollution problems. Except for S02, peak concentrations
from urban sources will be higher than those from the energy
facilities and are expected to violate ambient HC levels by 1990.
Concentrations from the new town are also predicted to exceed
Class II NSD increments for particulates by 1990.
Several other categories of air impacts have received only
preliminary attention. Our information to date suggests*that an
oxidant problem is likely to occur over the new town and that
problems associated with sulfates and fine particulates may also
arise. Plumes from the stacks at both plants may exceed the 20-
percent opacity standard, and long-range visibility will be
reduced.
176
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TABLE 6-8:
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL EMISSIONS CONTROLS3
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
NOX
Annual
Concentrations
Kaiparowits
Plant
2.3
26
22
253
1,147
19
Escalante
Plant
5.8
152
56
1,467
3,320
49
Standards
(Federal and Utah)
Primary
75
260
80 %
365
100
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
NOX = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are maximum concentrations which assume 98.6 percent
particulate removal and no S02 removal, which would meet New
Source Performance Standards.
B. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plants would vary if
emission control systems with other efficiency levels were used.
As currently configured, the plants have greater control than
required to meet most New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) . ^ The
plants could meet NSPS with 98.6-percent efficient electrostatic
precipitators and without any S02 removal. Table 6-8 shows con-
centrations of S02» particulates, and N02 which would result from
the use of these less-efficient controls. These data show that
concentrations from the Escalante plant would violate particulate
and S02 standards, and both plants would exceed NSD increments
for 24-hour and 3-hour SO2-
Other alternatives are for the plants to increase emission
control efficiency or to reduce total plant capacity to meet all
NSD Class II increments. The information in Table 6-9 shows that
61-percent (Kaiparowits plant) and 93-percent (Escalante plant)
The probable exception to this pattern is for plume opac-
ity. NSPS limit pollution emissions from stationary sources.
Different regulations apply to different sources.
177
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TABLE 6-9: ALTERNATIVES FOR MEETING CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Particulates
Annual *#>
24-hour
Required Emission
Removal (%)
Kaiparowits
Plant
32
61
39
93.8
98.3
Escalante
Plant
73
93
87
97.5
99.7
Plant Capacity
(MWe)
Escalante
Plant
3,000
1,020
1,970
3,000
850
MWe = megawatts-electric
SC>2 = sulfur dioxide
removal would be required to meet all allowable S02 Class II
increments. The Kaiparowits plant would require 98.3-percent and
the Escalante plant 99.7-percent removal to meet particulate
increments.1 Alternatively, the Escalante plant could meet Class
II requirements by reducing capacity to 830 MWe. 2 The Kaiparowits
plant meets Class II increments, given hypothesized removal
efficiencies.
C. Data Availability
Availability and quality of data have limited the impact
analysis reported in this chapter. These factors have primarily
affected estimation of long-range visibility, plume opacity,
oxidant formation, sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of
trace materials. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation. This includes the effect
of pollutants on visibility.
These efficiencies appear technologically feasible. More
attention will be paid to technological feasibility of highly
efficient control systems during the remainder of this project.
2
This assumes concentrations are directly proportional to
megawatt output.
178
-------
2. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals. This would improve
estimates of fallout and rainout from plumes.
6.3 WATER IMPACTS
6.3.1 Introduction
Surface water from Lake Powell will be the major water
source for energy development in the Kaiparowits/Escalante
scenario, (see Figure 6-4). Precipitation in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante area ranges from 6-10 inches per year in the southern
areas to 20 inches per year in the Escalante mountains. Annual
snowfall ranges from 12 to 24 inches.1
This section identifies the sources and uses of water
required for energy development, the residuals that will be
produced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are
likely to result.
6.3.2 Existing Conditions^
A. Groundwater
Three aquifer systems are present in the Lake Powell area:
small alluvial aquifers in deposits along rivers and streams,
perched aquifers3 in the coal-bearing Straight Cliffs geologic forma-
tion, and a regional aquifer in the deep Navajo sandstone.
Alluvial aquifers are located in sand and gravel strata
below valley stream beds. The water table in these shallow
aquifers is generally less than 100 feet below the surface.
The aquifers generally discharge into streams and are recharged
by the streams and by underflow from perched aquifers. While
the quality is generally good (depending on stream quality), the
quantity of water available from alluvial aquifers is quite small.
The moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to
approximately 15 inches of snow.
2
Available data for describing the natural ground and sur-
face water conditions in the scenario area are sketchy. The
primary data source is the environmental impact statement
prepared for the proposed Kaiparowits coal-fired power plant.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976.
Perched aquifers are small, usually localized aquifers that
are above the true water table.
179
-------
I I ! , , I
10
MILES
Existing Roads
= Water Line and Pumping Station
FIGURE 6-4:
WATER SUPPLIES AND PIPELINES FOR THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
180
-------
The perched aquifers in the Straight Cliffs Formation, the
formation in which the minable coal is located, are located in
sandstone bodies that are generally small and erratically dis-
tributed in shale. Water yields vary from less than 1 to about
50 gallons per minute (gpm) . These shallow aquifers are recharged by
the direct infiltration of precipitation, and discharge is from
seeps and springs. The water in these aquifers, which is rela-
tively poor quality (total dissolved solids ranges around 1,000
milligrams per liter, mg/&), is used by livestock and wildlife.
The most important regional aquifer is located in the Navajo
sandstone at a depth of 1,000-2,000 feet in the vicinity of the
illustrative power plants. This aquifer is not presently being
used in the Kaiparowits area. At lower elevations along Wahweap
Creek, where the aquifer is quite shallow, wells yield from
several hundred to more than 1, 000 gpm. Recharge of this regional
aquifer is in the area where the sandstone crops out, and most of
the discharge is probably into Lake Powell. The quality of the
groundwater in the aquifer varies from fresh to slightly saline
(up to 3,000 mg/5,) .
Although groundwater is used exclusively by some of the
area's inhabitants, it is high in hardness and exceeds several
of the recommended limits set for drinking water as shown in
Table 6-10.
B. Surface Water
The only major perennial river in the Kaiparowits area is
the Colorado River. Glen Canyon Dam, which forms Lake Powell, is
located 16 miles up the Colorado River from Lee Ferry,! the
official division between the Upper and Lower Colorado River
Basins, and 5 to 10 miles downstream from the scenario site. At
the normal water surface elevation, Lake Powell extends 186 miles
up the Colorado River and 71 miles up the San Juan River.
The lake operates under the criteria established by the
Secretary of the Interior to control flows in the Colorado River
at Lees Ferry to meet conditions of the Colorado River Compact.2
For hydroelectric power generation, a minimum pool elevation must
be maintained. Normal releases are approximately 10 percent of
the cumulative 10-year flow required by the Colorado River
Compact (75 million acre-feet), plus an allocation of Upper Basin
Lee Ferry, the designated division point on the river, is
located near the town of Lees Ferry, Arizona.
2Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat.
1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.
3000 (1928).
181
-------
TABLE 6-10: GROUNDWATER QUALITY
Substance
Arsenic
Barium
Cadmium
Chloride
Chromium
Copper
Cyanide
Fluoride
Iron
Lead
Mercury
Nitrate
Selenium
Silver
Sulfate
Zinc
Dissolved Solids
Drinking Water
Recommended
Limits mg/Jla
0.05
1.0
0.01
250d
0.05e
1<*
No Standard
1.4-2.48
0.3d
0.05
0.002
10h
0.01
.05
25 0<*
5d
500d
Navajo Sandstone Aquifer
Sample^
Well #19
(mg/X)
140
0.4
0.03
0.53*
1,060
Sampleb
Well #20
(rag/Jl)
16
1.40
0.3J
292
Straight Cliffs Formation
Drill0
Hole #2
(mg/Jl)
0.002
0.05
0.01
0.02f
0.03
0.005
0.13
0.001
0.001
0.5
Drill0
Hole #10
(mg/i)
0.003
0.05
0.05
0.42f
0.42
0.005
0.58
0.001
0.005
4.98
rag/ Jt » milligrams per liter
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regula-
tions." 40 Fed. Reg. 59566-88 (December 24, 1975). These regulations also include standards
for turbidity, organic chemicals, and microbiological contaminants.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact
Statement; Proposed Kaiparowtts Project. 6 vola. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land
Management, 1976. p. 11-147.
CIbid, p. 11-149.
IJ.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations."
Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg. 17143-47 (March 31, 1977).
CAs Chromate (Cr+^).
Total chronium.
8Fluoride standard varies according to the annual average of the maximum daily air temper-
ature for the location in which the community water system is situated. The lowest level is
for temperatures above 26.3° C, and the highest level is for temperatures below 12° C.
Measured as Nitrogen.
Slitrate (NOa) + Nitrite (N02> as Nitrogen.
J
Nitrate (N03).
182
-------
flow assumed to be required by treaty with Mexico.1 This totals
approximately 8.25 million acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr).
Basic storage and water quality data for Lake Powell are pre-
sented in Table 6-11. Water quality data can be compared to
typical industrial boiler feed water requirements, which are also
shown.
TABLE 6-11:
STORAGE AND WATER QUALITY DATA FOR
LAKE POWELL
Minimum power pool elevation
Maximum water level
Dead storage
Active storage below minimum
power pool elevation
Active storage above minimum
power pool elevation
3,490 feet above mean
sea level
3,711 feet above mean
sea level
1,998,000 acre-feet
4,126,000 acre-feet
20,876,000 acre-feet
Water Quality Data from U.S.G.S. Sampling Station No.
Colorado River Channel above Mouth of Wahweap Creek,
unpublished, 1974, 1975.
Parameter
Dissolved Solids
Calcium
Magnesium
Sodium
Potassium
Carbonate
Bicarbonate
Chloride
Sulfate
Dissolved Oxygen
Range of Values (mg/&)
Minimum
475
58.4
21.7
60.3
3.5
107
38
197
4
Maximum
677
85
29.8
93.8
5.1
23.1
182
70.3
281
10.1
Typical
Boiler
Feed Watera
<10
0.10
0.03
0.24
<0.01
<0.01
<10
0.14
= milligrams per liter
< = less than
American water Works Association, Inc., Water Quality and
Treatment. 3rd ed. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1971, p.
510, Table 16-1. Some numbers derived from Table 16-1,
assuming concentrating factor = 100, high-pressure drum type
boiler.
Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico
Respecting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana
Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219
(1945), Treaty Series No. 994.
183
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TABLE 6-12:
ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE WATER RESOURCES
AND USES FOR UTAH IN THE UPPER COLORADO
RIVER BASIN9
(1,000 acre-feet)
Average Annual Water Supply
Modified Inflow to Region
Undepleted Water Yield
Estimated 1975 Imports
Total Water Supply
Estimated 1975 Water Use
Irrigation
Municipal and Industrial Including Rural
Minerals
Thermal Electric
Recreation and Fish and Wildlife
Other
Reservoir Evaporation
Estimated 1975 Exports
Total Depletions
Estimated Future Water Supply
Remaining Available 1975 Water Supply
Estimated Allocations for Future Use
Net Water Available for Future Use
8,759
2,651
3
11,413
521
7
9
8
8
118
194
112
977
10,436
10,255
181
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama-
tion. Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Prob-
lems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, pp. 374-375.
The estimated 1975 surface water supply and uses in Utah are
shown in Table 6-12. Irrigation is the largest water user. The
hypothetical energy developments in this scenario will increase
power generation usage by a factor of 10 but will still be less
than 20 percent of the water used for agriculture.
The local surface water system which will be directly
affected by the Kaiparowits/Escalante energy development includes
several ephemeral and intermittent streams. Flow in these
184
-------
streams is generally the result of cloudbursts that occur frequently
in late summer. The mean annual runoff for these streams is as
followsil
Stream Acre-ft/yr2
Warm Creek 1,000
Wahweap Creek 2,000
Last Chance Creek 2,800
Escalante River 12,900
Peak flood flows in these creeks can be considerable. For
example, where Coyote and Wahweap Creeks come together, flows
have a 50-percent probability of attaining 2,000 cubic feet per
second (cfs) once every 2 years.
Water quality in these ephemeral and intermittent streams
has been sampled. Although the antecedent conditions are not
known, values for estimated flow and total dissolved solids (TDS)
during May 1974 were:3
Total
Dissolved
Flow Solids
(cfs) (mg/&)
Wahweap Creek 1.0 2,140
Warm Creek very low 4,710
Last Chance Creek very low 3,520
Escalante River 2.6 1,1504
Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact,5 Utah is
entitled to 23 percent of the water allocated to the Upper Basin
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment ^ Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utahs Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976, Chapter 2, p. 2-156.
2
1,000 acre-ft/yr corresponds to 1.38 cubic feet per second.
3BLM. EEIS; Kaiparowits, p. 2-157.
4
From U.S. Geological Survey Water Resource Data, trans-
formed from specific conductance measurement to TDS using Hem,
John D- Study and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics
of Natural Water, 2d ed., U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply
Paper 1473. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1970,
Figure 10.
Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, 63 Stat. 31
(1949) .
185
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after 50,000 acre-ft/yr is deducted for Arizona. Primarily
because of variations in calculated values for total flow and the
portion of the Mexican Treaty which may be allocated to the Upper
Basin, Utah's share of the Upper Basin water is uncertain.
However, a range of from 1,322,500 to 1,437,500 acre-ft/yr
appears to be a reasonable estimate.
6.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized in
the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario are shown in Table 6-13. Two
sets of data are presented. Energy Resource Development data
are based on secondary sources including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published
data accumulations.-'- Water Purification Associates data are from
a study on minimum water requirements and take into account the
moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological
data.2
Figure 6-5 shows water requirements for the 3,000-MWe power
plant at Kaiparowits/Escalante. As indicated, the greatest
amount of water will be consumed by wet cooling. Process requirements
are small, and solids disposal consumes only 5.5-14 percent of
the total, depending on which of the estimates is used.
! i.
The water required for mining will be used predominately for
dust control and coal washing. No water requirement for reclama-
tion is assumed for the underground mines.
Lake Powell is the designated source of surface water for
the hypothetical energy development at the Kaiparowits/Escalante
site. To obtain the necessary water for energy development, the
developer must acquire a water right from the state of Utah (or
See White, Irvin L., et al. Energy Resource Development
Systems for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming. These ERDS are based on data drawn from:
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975. Radian Corporation. A Western
Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin,
Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. '
186
-------
R- 42,000
40-
30H
U.
I
Ul
OL
i
20-
10-
W- 39,770
COOLING TOWER
EVAPORATION
CONSUMED IN
PROCESS
SOLIDS DISPOSAL
CONSUMPTION
o. »\/
6-5: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR A 3,000 MWe POWER
PLANT AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE
187
-------
TABLE 6-13:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE
Use
Power Plant
(2 plants)
Coal Mining
Limestone Quarry
Size
6,000 MWe
(3,000 each)
25.4 x 106 tpy
322,000 tpy
Requirement sa
(acre-feet per year)
ERDSb
84,000
6,560
4d
WPAC
79,540
3,542
ERDS = energy resource development system
MWe = megawatt(s)-electric
tpy = tons per year
WPA = Water Purification Associates
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of 100
percent. Although not realistic for sustained operation,
this load factor indicates the maximum water demand for
these facilities.
-fa
Chapter 3 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy Resource
Development Systems for a Technology Assessment of Western
Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
°From Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements
for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel
Plants in the Western United States, Final Report, for
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming.
Scaled from U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement;
Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976.
V
purchase water from the holder of an existing water right) and
must enter into a contract with the Department of the Interior if
water is to be drawn from the lake rather than from a naturally
flowing watercourse within Utah.
As shown in Figure 6-4, water intakes are to be located at
Warm Creek for the Kaiparowits plant and in the flooded portion
of the Escalante River at Willow Creek for the Escalante plant.
188
-------
Groundwater resources are not sufficient to meet the needs of the
energy facilities.
Water for the coal mines and limestone quarries will be
taken from groundwater supplies.
B. Municipalities
The water needs of the expected increases in population are
shown in Table 6-14. An estimated 10,753 acre-ft of water will
be needed annually for the new town. This unusually high water
demand is caused by the new town development plan, which calls
for extensive greenbelts and park facilities to attract necessary
personnel to the area.l
Rural water demands will be met by individual wells that
probably will not significantly affect the local aquifer. Munic-
ipal water requirements will be supplied by groundwater pumped
from a well field in the Navajo sandstone. Most of this withdrawal
TABLE 6-14: EXPECTED INCREASES : IN- WATER SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS
Increased Water Requirement Above 1975 Level
(acre-feet per year)
Year
1980
1990
2000
Kanaba
21.0
63.0
70.0
Panguitch
17.5
105.0
140.0
Escalantea
7.0
567.0
588.0
Page3
84
476
574
Kaiparowits
New Townc
1,770
10,266
10,753
aBased on 125 gallons per capita per day (gcd).
Based on 313 gcd (Panguitch City Clerk).
CBased on 790 gcd (approximately 125 gcd for domestic use and
665 gcd for greenbelt irrigation).
S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment . Final Environmental Impact-Statement • Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976.
189
-------
will probably be from bank storage of Lake Powell, so this source
should be as reliable as the water supply of the lake. If it can
be demonstrated that the groundwater used is part of the Lake
Powell bank storage,1 the water will be considered Colorado River
water and may be subject to the legal constraints of the applica-
ble compacts. Also, existing local groundwater users could be
affected by the new town's well field. These legal conflicts
would have to be resolved before a new water right could be
issued.
6.3.4 Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The quantities and types of waste streams from the energy
facilities hypothesized for the Kaiparowits and Escalante sce-
nario areas are shown in Table 6-15. Fly ash disposal, flue gas
desulfurization, and coal washing generate the largest quantities
of residuals. (Coal from the underground mines will be washed to
reduce the ash and sulfur levels.) Other residual quantities are
insignificant. All these waste streams are ponded; there are no
intentional releases to surface or groundwater systems.
All discharge streams from the facilities will be discharged
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Runoff
prevention systems will be installed in all areas that have a
pollution potential. Runoff will be directed to either a holding
pond or a water treatment facility.
B. Municipalities
Waste disposal is assumed to be by individual, on-site
facilities (septic tanks and drainage fields) in rural areas and
by treatment facilities in urban areas. Wastewater increases
resulting from the expected population increases associated with
energy development are shown in Table 6-16.
Current treatment practices in Escalante and Panguitch
consist entirely of septic tanks and drainage fields. Kanab has
a two-stage 0.2-mgd (million gallons per day) trickling filter
operating at about 0.17 mgd. As a result of the increased popu-
lations, municipal sewage treatment facilities will probably need
to be built in Escalante and Panguitch as well as the new town.
New facilities should use best practicable waste treatment tech-
nologies to conform to 1983 standards and should allow recycling
Some water migrates into the banks of the lake and is
stored there, hence the term "bank storage".
190
-------
TABLE 6-15:
RESIDUALS FROM ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION
AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE3
Boiler Demineralizer Waste
Treatment Waste
Flue Gas Desulfurization
Bottom Ash Disposal
Fly Ash Disposal
Coal Washing (coarse reject)
Coal Washing (tailings)
Total
Stream
Content13
s
i
-
i
i
i
1,0
Wet-Solids
(tpd)
3.3
374
2,014
593
2,274
6,381
9,084
20,723
Dry-Solids
(tpd)
1.7
149
806
456
1,820
4,020
3,564
10,817
Water in Solid
(gpm)
0.3
37.1
201
22.9
75.7
75
466
878
gpm = gallons per minute
tpd = tons per day
aFrom Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power
Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the western United States, Final Report, for
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
s
i
o
primarily soluble inorganic
primarily insoluble inorganic
primarily insoluble organic
-------
TABLE 6-16 s EXPECTED INCREASES IN WASTEWATER FLOWS
Increased Flow Above 1975 Levela
(million gallons per day)
year
1980
1990
2000
Kanab
.015
.045
.050
Panguitch
.005
.030
.040
Escalante
.005
.410
.420
Page
.27
.66
.73
Kaiparowits
New Town
0.05
1.16
1.22
aBased on 100 gallons per capita per day.
or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 standards.1 The
1985 standard could be met by using effluents for industrial pro-
cess make-up water or for irrigating local farmland.
6.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
Between the present and 1980, most activity will be con-
struction related to the opening of the first coal mine and the
limestone quarry. Construction of the power plant and new town
will also begin during this period.
1. Underground Mines
Although the underground coal mines are not scheduled to
begin operation until 1983, construction related to the opening
of the mine will be under way before 1980. This construction will
have impacts on both groundwater and surface water.
The mine excavations may intersect some of the perched
aquifers contained in the coal-bearing formation. As a result, the
groundwater flow patterns of these aquifers will be disrupted and
local springs and seeps, important as water supplies for wildlife
in the area, may dry up.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Construction activities at both power plants will remove
vegetation and disturb the soil, thus affecting surface water
quality by increasing the sediment in local runoff. Additionally,
the equipment used during construction will require maintenance
Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972, §§ 101, 301;
33 U.S.C.A. §§• 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
192
-------
areas and petroleum products storage facilities. Areas for the
storage of other construction-related materials, such as aggre-
gate for a concrete batch plant, will also be required. All
these facilities have the potential for contaminating runoff.
Control methods will be instituted at all the potential contami-
nant sources by channeling runoff to a holding pond for settling,
reuse, and evaporation. Since the supply of water to this pond
will be intermittent, most of the water may evaporate, although
some may be used for dust control.
3. Municipal Facilities
From the present to 1980, most urban growth will be absorbed
by existing communities, and local groundwater systems will not
be significantly affected. Additional demands will be made on
surface water supplies, but the overall increase should be small
(see Table 6-14).
As shown in Table 6-16, wastewater flows will increase as a
result of population increases from construction activities.
Existing facilities at Kanab should not be overloaded by the
anticipated increased wastewater flow, but unless existing waste-
water treatment facilities are expanded or new facilities are
built at the other towns, some surface-water pollution may result
from overloads and/or bypasses.
B. Impacts to 2000
Both power plants will be constructed and in operation by
1990. In addition, ancillary activities, including coal mines
and quarry operations, will be in full operation. The projected
new town will also be built and occupied. These activities and
facilities have several potential impacts on groundwater and
surface water. No additional .facilities are postulated beyond
1990; consequently, water impacts are assumed to remain the same
for 1990-2000.
1. Underground Mine
As mining proceeds and mines are expanded, additional
perched aquifers will be intersected. This may cause more
springs and seeps to dry up. Also, some mining subsidence may
occur, which could result in fractures in the overburden that
may, in turn, further disrupt the flow in perched aquifers. One
of the effects of this flow disruption could be the mixing of
waters from fresh and saline aquifers.
The combined mining activities at both plants would consume
8,560 acre-ft/yr of water from Lake Powell which would thus not
be available for other uses. Runoff during mine operation is
expected to be higher than during preconstruction conditions.
Mining subsidence may cause a change in surface runoff conditions,
193
-------
resulting in the development of new drainage patterns. This
change could affect wildlife and livestock watering locations.
2. Limestone Quarry
The limestone quarries for the Kaiparowits/Escalante sce-
nario will require 4 acre-ft/yr of water. Groundwater is assumed
to be the source of these supplies, but such use may conflict
with existing local water rights. Springs located near the
quarries may dry up if blasting operations to open the quarries
disrupt groundwater flow, and additional water sources may be
affected as the quarries are operated and blasting continues.
Ponds created by quarry operations may trap surface water rather
than release it, to surface streams in the area.
3. Power Plant
The 65-acre emergency service reservoir at each site will
be lined to reduce natural pond leakage. However, some leakage
will enter the groundwater system where it will recharge the
local perched aquifers and provide additional water to downstream
seeps and springs.
The aggregate used in construction at the Kaiparowits site
will come from alluvium that is also part of the shallow aquifer
in the upper Wahweap Creek Canyon. This will reduce the storage
capacity of the aquifer by approximately 200 acre-ft. The
removal of the aggregate should result in the formation of a pond
which may discharge into Wahweap Creek. Evaporative water loss
from the pond area will decrease the downstream groundwater
supply. The likelihood of contamination both of the groundwater
and surface water will be increased by livestock and wildlife use
of the pond.
Electric generating facilities at both Kaiparowits and
Escalante will cover land normally a part of the natural ground-
water recharge system. About 480 acres will be removed from
natural runoff contributions because of runoff control devices
around critical areas and losses by catchments such as ponds.
Removal of this amount of land will reduce recharge capacity by
96 acre-ft/yr, which is about 0.25 percent of the total recharge
capacity in the Kaiparowits Plateau area.l
Fuel tanks at both sites will be surrounded by a berm
designed to contain spills. In the event of a spill, fuel oil
will saturate the ground within the bermed area, and the soluble
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976.
194
-------
fractions could eventually enter the perched aquifer system and
come out in unknown concentrations in springs and seeps.
As noted previously, most of the water used in the project
will come from Lake Powell. The two 2,000 MWe plants, their
associated coal mines, and the limestone quarry will use an esti-
mated 84,000 acre-ft/yr, an amount equivalent to about 6.8 per-
cent of Utah's share of the Upper Colorado River allocation.
Withdrawal of the water will, of course, mean that this water
will no longer be available to other users in the Upper Colorado
River Basin.
The removal of 84,000 acre-ft/yr of water from Lake Powell
to supply the proposed plant may have a salt-concentrating effect
on the Colorado River. The Bureau of Reclamation estimates that
the salt increase caused by a project of similar size would be as
much as 2.1 mg/jl at Imperial Dam. This increase would affect the
agricultural users of the water through lower crop yields,
causing an estimated annual loss of $230,000 per mg/£ of salt
increase.1 Runoff in the vicinity of the plants will increase
during the construction phase, due primarily to the removal of
vegetation. As noted above, runoff will decrease after construc-
tion due to structures that will retain runoff, such as the
evaporative ponds.
The sediment load in local creeks will increase during the
construction period. This increase will be temporary because
after the plant begins operation, retention facilities at the
plant sites will trap runoff and direct it into the evaporation
ponds.
Some increased erosion of creek banks could occur where the
water supply pipelines bridge creek beds. This impact can be
avoided if banks are stabilized. Some additional creek bed
erosion might occur due to increased pressure at the pipeline
bridges during flood flows.
4. Effluent Disposal for Energy Facility
The evaporation ponds are used as a final disposal site for
the natural salts that occur in the water supply. Concentration
of salts in these ponds will be high, approximately 100,000-
200,000 mg/&. Thus, as these salts infiltrate through the pond
liner into the groundwater system, they might, (depending on
quantities and aquifer characteristics) raise the TDS content of
Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part I: Executive
Summary, Basin Profile, and Report Digest, for National Commis-
sion on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research Labora-
tory, 1975, p. 2.
195
-------
the water, making the water unfit for humans and possibly for
livestock and wildlife as well. Springs and seeps fed by this
contaminated groundwater could subsequently affect surface water
systems.
The ash disposal site will contain large concentrations of
trace elements such as arsenic, barium, boron, fluorine, sele-
nium, titanium, and vanadium. The sites are underlain by sand-
stone and mudstone which will greatly retard but will not stop
leaking. However, the clays in the mudstone may absorb most of
these trace elements before they leak into local perched aquifers.
Water leaking from the ash disposal pond could enter the
surface water system by migrating laterally along the low-
permeability strata to the canyon walls. As noted earlier,
this water will contain trace toxic materials. The concentra-
tions that reach the surface water are presumed small, but the
transport mechanism for some of these materials through ground-
water is unknown.
There will be no significant local surface-water impacts
directly from plant effluents because there will be no off-site
discharge of effluents. The surface-water flow volume will be
reduced slightly as rainfall is trapped in the on-site waste
retention ponds. Some additional flow losses will occur because
of the associated runoff retention facilities.
5. Municipal Facilities
The new town will be located over a part of the recharge
area of the Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Total sewage from the
proposed new town will be approximately 1.22 million gallons per
day. Sewer pipes to collect the raw sewage will be placed in the
permeable sandstone above the aquifer, and leaks in the pipes
could result in groundwater pollution. If the solid waste dis-
posal site for the new town is placed on the recharge zone,
additional pollution could take place unless special precautions
are taken.
As noted earlier, under present law, effluents from the
sewage treatment plant may discharge to surface waters until
1985. Effluents from the sewage treatment plant will be used in
irrigated agriculture after 1985. If the treatment facility is
operated properly, there should be no significant pollution from
this practice.
Runoff will be increased by the construction of the new town
by about 1,100 acre-ft/yr. This water will enter Wahweap Creek
during storm flows and subsequently flow into Lake Powell.
Local water sources, such as springs and seeps, will be used
in the construction of access roads and highways. This activity
196
-------
will require virtually all the water available from these sources.
Highways and roads will increase runoff during storms with the
increased volume likely to drain into Lake Powell.
C. Impacts after 2000
After the plants are decommissioned, the facilities will
remain even though they are not operating. There will be con-
tinuing surface topographic changes due to subsidence. The land
that has been temporarily reclaimed with application of water in
excess of natural rainfall may lose vegetation and erode. Unless
the dikes around the ponds are properly maintained, they will
similarly lose their protective vegetation, will erode, and may
breach as a result. Subsequently, the materials within the pond
site will erode and enter the surface-water system. Although
Lake Powell is the original source of the salt materials in the
evaporation ponds, the eventual reentry of the salt to the lake
could affect local bottom organisms if salt concentrations are
sufficiently high. Similarly, the addition of trace materials
and solids from the ash disposal and tailings ponds can have an
adverse effect.
6.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts
The total surface water requirement for the Kaiparowits/
Escalante scenario is approximately 84,000 acre-ft/yr, and the
groundwater requirement for the new town and other urban and
rural areas is about 12;000 acre-ft/yr. The water used by the
energy facilities will be unavailable for other uses. The impact
of this depletion on other users is discussed in the regional
scenario, Chapter 12.
The water used for municipal supplies may be reused as
irrigation water. During the lifetime of the power plants, the
ase of water from Lake Powell will increase downstream salinity.
Ponds may leak more than expected and increase the infiltration
of pollutants from the ponds to the local groundwater. The
underground mining of 25.4 million tons of coal per year may
likely cause unplanned subsidence, which will in turn affect
surface-water drainage and may affect groundwater flow patterns.
Changes in runoff flows will occur as a result of vegetation
removal, construction activities, and the facilities themselves.
An increase in runoff is projected but it will vary from year to
year. Conflicts may arise from the imposition of new water
demands in an area with existing water rights. Changes in
natural flow in springs and seeps may change watering patterns
for wildlife and livestock (see Section 6.5).
The physical impacts caused by the power plants and the
facilities associated with them will remain after the plants are
decommissioned. At present, subsidence effects caused by the
197
-------
planned underground mining are irreversible. If a different
mining plan were used, subsidence could be controlled or essen-
tially eliminated. This alternative, however, is costly in terms
of dollars per ton of coal delivered to the power plants.
The limestone quarry will remain at the end of operations
and will likely be filled with water during some period of the
year. The alternative is a costly recontouring of the quarry
site.
More important is the ultimate destruction of the dikes
around the evaporative holding ponds which contain the salt, ash,
trace materials, sanitary sludge, and scrubber sludge. This
situation could be avoided if the dikes are maintained, the
contents are removed to a leakproof container, or the ponds are
covered with soil and revegetated.l However, maintenance of the
dikes will not eliminate pond leakage, and this is another poten-
tial long-term source of pollution. Pond liners will retard
leakage but will not prevent it. Over the life of the plant>
materials in the pond should not leach beyond the outer boundary
of the liner. However, materials are likely to eventually leach
through the liner and into the groundwater below.
6.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
6.4.1 Introduction
As described above, the hypothetical energy development for
Kaiparowits/Escalante will occur in two counties of southern
Utah: Garfield and Kane. Both counties are sparsely populated
at present, but energy development will change this. Large
numbers of workers, some with families, will begin to move into
the area when construction of the energy facilities begins. The
establishment of a new town near Glen Canyon City is part of the
overall development in this scenario. The social, economic, and
political impacts that can be anticipated will result either
directly or indirectly from the rapid population increase that
will follow.
6.4.2 Existing Conditions
Kane and Garfield Counties comprise 9,201 square miles and
in 1974 had a combined population of approximately 6,600 people.
This is a density of 0.7 person per square mile. Few roads
serve the area, and many of these are unpaved or unimproved. No
railroads or airlines presently serve the two-county area. Thus,
the Kaiparowits Plateau is generally inaccessible, and any heavy
In some locations, it may be difficult to stablize the
areas that have been refilled.
198
-------
TABLE 6-17:
POPULATION OF KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES
AND COUNTY SEATS, 1940-1974
Location
Kane County
Kanab
Other towns
Garfield County
Panguitch
Other towns
Two County Total
1940
2,561.
5,253
7,814
1950
2,299
4,151
1,435
6,450
1960
2,667
1,645
737
3,577
1,318
1,856
6,244
1970
2,421
1,381
661
3,157
1,318
1,570
5,578
1974a
3,300
1,550
700
3,300
1,350
1,600
6,600
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Univer-
sity of Utah.
aEstimated.
vehicle traffic would require substantial highway improvement and
construction.
Except for a recent increase, mainly in Kane County (Table
6-17), the population of the area has been static or declining
for most of the past 35 years. The increase in Kane County
appears to be related to the Navajo power plant just south of
Glen Canyon City and may be temporary.1
;'
Only the county seat of each county, Kanab in Kane County
and Panguitch in Garfield County, has a population over 1,000.
Both towns are located in the extreme western part of their
respective counties.
Very few people actually live in the Kaiparowits Plateau
portion of the two counties. In fact, in 1970 fewer than 700
people lived in Kane County outside of established towns.
Ethnically, the area is quite homogenous; there is no Black
population and less than 1 percent are Indians. As is common in
areas of the U.S. where population is declining, young adults
have tended to leave to seek economic opportunities elsewhere.
"Hfistisen, M.J., and G.T. Nelson. Kaiparowits Socio-
Economic Study. Provo, Utah: Brigham Young University, Center
for Business and Economic Research, 1973, p. 44.
199
-------
TABLE 6-18
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN KAIPAROWITS
AREA, 1974
Industry
Total Civilian Work Force
Total Employed
Agriculture
Mining
Contract Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and Public
Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, Real
Estate
Service and Miscellaneous
Government
All Other Nonagriculture
Total Unemployed
Kane County
1,260
1,170
100
20
15
60
10
200
25
150
200
310
90^
Garfield County
1,430
1,210
110
20
15
200
50
135
20
190
310
150
220b
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University
of Utah.
7.1 percent.
15.4 percent.
Net outmigration from Kane and Garfield Counties between 1960 and
1970 was 1,507 people.!
Table 6-18 shows the distribution of employment by industry
in the two counties. The local economy of the Kaiparowits area
is oriented more toward tourist services and government wholesale
and retail trade than is the national average. This is primarily
because of tourist attractions in the area (including several
national forests and parks) and a lack of major activity in other
economic sectors. Agricultural activities in the area consist
mainly of sheep and cattle production. Per-capita income in the
Bowles, Gladys K., Calvin L. Beale, and Everett S. Lee.
Net Migration of the Population, 1960-70 by Age, Sex, and Color,
Part 6: Western States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1975, pp. 74-75.
200
-------
two-county area remains less than 80 percent of the Utah average,
(which is 82 percent of the U.S. average).1
The Kaiparowits area was settled largely by Church of Jesus
Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormon) immigrants from other parts
of Utah. Mormons still constitute the single largest religious
group in the area. 2
Residents of the area are apparently overwhelmingly in favor
of energy development. Southern Utah has lagged behind the rest
of the state economically, and residents would like an opportu-
nity to catch up, which is what energy development in this area
seems to offer.3 Further, economic opportunities would both help
keep the young people from leaving southern Utah and allow rela-
tives and friends to return.
Both Kane and Garfield Counties are governed by three-member
boards of commissioners. Governmental services in these counties
are limited; law enforcement is provided by two full-time law
officers in each county. Both counties are served by joint city/
county volunteer fire departments. Kane County has a planning
commission, but Garfield County does not. Both counties have a
master plan and, although only Kane County currently has a zoning
ordinance, one is being drafted for Garfield County. Public
education is provided by a single school district in each county.
Public health services in Kane County include maintenance of a
31-bed hospital in Kanab? a 28-bed county hospital is now under
construction in Panguitch to replace the old 16-bed facility
there. Doctors are not available elsewhere in the two counties.
Panguitch is governed by a mayor and five councilmen. Two
full-time policemen provide law enforcement, and the joint city/
county volunteer fire department provides fire protection.
Currently, the city has neither a professional city engineer nor
a planner. However, the city owns and operates a water system
and has a zoning ordinance .
Kanab, seat of Kane County government, has a mayor and five
councilmen. It employs three full-time policemen and, like
Panguitch, participates in a joint volunteer fire department
Janet. "Personal Income in Utah 1970-1975." Utah
Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36 (June 1976) , pp. 1-6.
o
Dotsoh, John L. "Duel in the Sun." Newsweek (October 27,
1975), p. 10.
See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed
Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of
Land Management, 1976, pp. A-710 to A-726.
201
-------
arrangement with the county. Unlike Panguitch, Kanab has a
licensed city engineer. it does not have a professional planner,
but the city does have a zoning ordinance. Kanab has both a
city-owned and operated water and sewage treatment system; an
expansion of the water system is now under way. The other incor-
porated communities in the two counties have no municipal water
or sewer systems.
Overall, Kane and Garfield Counties and the two small towns
of Kanab and Panguitch appear to lack the resources necessary to
deal effectively with energy development in the area. However,
the counties have been attempting to upgrade their capabilities,
particularly in planning. Both counties and their county seats
participate in Utah's system for intergovernmental planning
cooperation.1 They also participate in the Kaiparowits Planning
and Development Advisory Council, which Governor Calvin L.
Rampton established by executive order in August 1974.2 The
council was established to guide and coordinate activities
related to energy development in Kane and Garfield Counties.
6.4.3 Population Impacts
Most of the social, economic, and political impacts in the
Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will result from population
increases, initially during construction and later during opera-
tion of the facilities.
Construction of the first power plant was to have begun in
1975 and will extend into 1983. The employment projections used
are shown in Table 6-19. The two scenario facilities are shown
separately because of their differing impacts. Population
changes were projected using economic base analysis, employment
multipliers (which increase from 0.2 to 0.4 for construction and
from 0.2 to 0.5 during operation of the facilities), and the
employment data in Table 6-19. Population/employee multipliers
of 2.2 for construction and 3.0 for operation were assumed. An
average of 80 percent of the new employees in the area were
assumed to be from outside the local area, a figure which may be
high early in the development but which should be a reasonable
average.3
This system is described in 6.4.8.
2
The executive order is reprinted in U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact
Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake
City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976, pp. A-259 to A-260.
The multipliers used here are aggregates intended to
include a variety of factors, including local labor recruitment.
202
-------
TABLE 6-19:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT FOR
KAIPAROWITS SCENARIO, 1975-20003
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
to
2000
Facility #1
(Kaiparowits Site)
Construction
40
440
1,060
1,670
2,570
3,360
2,560
830
0
Operation
0
430
740
1,480
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
Facility #2
(Escalante Site)
Construction
0
40
440
1,060
1,670
2,570
3,360
2,560
830
0
Operation
0
430
740
1,480
2,970
2,970
2,970
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning
Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
aAbout 20-25 percent of construction and 80 percent of
operation employment is attributable to the coal mining
activity alone.
A community choice model based on a town's population and
distance from facility sites was used to allocate populations to
towns in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area.l The assumed new town
was allocated 500 people a. priori in 1977 and 1978, after which
its population changes also were subject to the model. The new
town is assumed to be a new incorporated community rather than a
company town.
Population estimates in this scenario indicate that Page,
Arizona will attract the majority of the growth early in the
development. Established schools and services in Page will
•''Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 90-97. A friction of distance factor of 1.5 was used.
203
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TABLE 6-20: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR PAGE AND COMMUNITIES
IN KANE COUNTY, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1995
2000
Page, Arizona*3
6,000
5,820
7,020
7,850
8,980
10,440
10,270
9,660
10,770
11,100
11,310
11,430
11,580
11,590
11,690
11,780
12,070
12,370
Kane County, Utah
Kanab
1,550
1,660
1,810
1,910
2,040
2,200
2,200
2,150
2,270
2,340
2,380
2,410
2,440
2,440
2,460
2,480
2,540
2,600
New Town
0
0
500
1,250
2,000
3,350
3,740
3,910
6,240
6,500
6,670
6,750
6,850
6,830
6,890
6,940
7,120
7,290
Glen Canyon
City
20
25
40
60
80
110
110
100
140
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
160
160
Others
1,730
1,745
1,760
1,780
1,790
1,800
1,810
1,820
1,830
1,840
1,850
1,860
1,870
1,880
1,890
1,910
1,960
2,010
Total
3,300
3,430
4,110
5,000
5,910
7,460
7,860
7,980
10,480
10,830
11,050
11,170
11,310
11,300
11,390
11,480
11,780
12,060
Natural increases of 0.8 percent annually through 1990 and 0.5 percent
annually thereafter are incorporated. Given the scenario and data
assumptions, the estimates in the table are within about 25 percent of
conditions which could be expected.
Page estimates include a decline from population associated with the
Navajo power plant of 2,000 during 1975 and 1,000 during 1976.
attract many people, especially families with children. A 75-
percent increase in size (to 10,440) is expected by 1980, after
which only minor population changes should occur (Table 6-20).
Kane County is expected to triple in population by 1983, after
which growth will be gradual. Much of the increase should take
place in the new town, where 2,000 will live by 1979 and 6,500
by 1984. Kanab can expect a 40-percent increase by 1980; road-
side sprawl of trailer homes is likely in the Glen Canyon City
area, where the present population of about 20 will grow to 110
by 1980.
Garfield County will receive only minor impacts from the
first mine and power plant development located to the south.
However, after construction begins near Escalante in 1980,
204
-------
population will rise considerably. Between 1980 and 1987, when
construction is completed, a 240-percent increase in county popu-
lation is expected, most of it at Escalante (11,000 population in
1987) but much of it in and around the small towns along Utah
Highway 12 (Table 6-21) .
Age-sex distributions of population were estimated from 1970
data for Kane and Garfield Counties and age distributions of
employees and family members from recent surveys in the West.^
Page, Arizona was assumed to have a structure similar to southern
Utah. As is typical, the relative number of males is expected to
be greatest during construction (1980-1985), and the proportion
of population in the 20-35 age group remains higher due to
employment opportunities (Table 6-22).
6.4.4 Housing and School Impacts
Housing and school enrollment impacts are obtained from
population and age structure estimates, assuming the age struc-
ture is the same throughout the area. The 6-13 age group is
classified as elementary school age and the 14-16 age group is
classified as secondary school age,2 providing estimates with
perhaps 25-percent possible error, given the population esti-
mates. Housing demand is estimated from the proportion of the
population which is male and 20 years of age and older.
Estimates of housing demand are generally high during con-
struction and continue to rise sloWly through 2000 (Table 6-23).
By 1980 in this scenario, Kane County will need over 1,700 new
homes, 1,200 at the new town site alone (Figure 6-6). Judging
from other western energy development sites, at least half of
these could be mobile homes.3 Garfield County is even more
likely to have a large number of mobile homes, since the demand
for housing in 1985 will be nearly five times the 1975 level
(Figure 6-7). Escalante is the probable site for extensive
mobile home location. Likewise, the expected growth of the very
small towns in the area (Tables 6-20 and 6-21) will largely be
accommodated by mobile homes.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 31-39.
o
These assumptions and their resulting estimates are asso-
ciated with perhaps a ±25-percent/error given the population
estimates.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, p. 103.
205
-------
TABLE 6-21: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR COMMUNITIES IN GARFIELD COUNTY, 1975-2000*
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1995
2000
Escalante
650
680
750
790
840
900
1,390
2,270
3,300
6,040
8,600
9,400
11,000
9,580
9,660
9,730
9,980
10,200
Cannonville
110
120
150
170
190
230
230
230
270
290
310
320
320
320
320
330
330
340
Tropic
330
370
430
470
530
610
640
640
720
790
820
840
860
850
850
860
880
900
Henrieville
150
160
190
210
240
270
280
290
330
360
300
390
400
400
400
400
410
420
Panguitch
1,370
1,420
1,520
1,590
1,670
1,770
1,800
1,800
1,910
1,940
2,000
2,020
2,050
2,040
2,060
2,080
2,130
2,180
Boulder
90
90
100
100
110
110
120
130
140
160
170
170
180
170
170
170
180
180
Other
600
600
610
610
620
620
630
640
640
650
650
660
660
670
670
680
700
720
Total
3,300
3,440
3,750
3,940
4,200
4,510
5,090
6,000
7,310
10,230
12,850
13,800
15,470
14,030
14,130
14,250
14,610
14,940
NJ
O
CT>
Natural increases of 0.8 percent annually through 1990 and 0.5 percent annually thereafter
are incorporated. Given the scenario and data assumptions, the estimates in the table are
within about 25 percent of likely conditions.
-------
TABLE 6-22:
AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR PAGE
AND KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES
Age Group
Female
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Male
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975
-048
.051
.110
.053
.024
.024
.042
.098
.053
.503
.050
.054
.104
.048
.019
.026
.041
.100
.056
.498
1980
.020
.034
.102
.127
.045
.029
.023
.061
.041
.483
.021
.038
.110
.140
.049
.033
.022
.062
.042
.517
1985
.013
.025
-092
.151
.045
.030
.021
.065
.049
.491
.014
.027
.096
.158
.048
.032
.021
.065
.050
.509
1990-2000
.013
.021
.085
.156
.042
.029
.024
.074
.057
.501
.013
.022
.084
.155
.041
.029
.023
.074
.058
.499
TABLE 6-23:
ESTIMATED HOUSING DEMAND IN KANE AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE,
1975-2000
Location
Kane County
New Town
Page
Garfield County
Escalante
1975
910
0
1,650
910
180
1980
2,670
1,200
3,740
1,610
320
1985
3,790
2,290
3,880
4,430
2,950
1990
3,620
2,190
3,710
4,490
3,060
2000
3,800
2,300
3,900
4,710
3,210
207
-------
o
00
Households
Households
new town
Elementary
Secondary
1975
I I I I I
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 6-6:
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN KANE
COUNTY, 1980-2000
-------
NJ
O
Households
Households
Escalante
Elementary
Secondary
I I I I 1
1975 1980 S985 S990 1995 2000
FIGURE 6-7:
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN
GARFIELD COUNTY, 1980-2000
-------
TABLE 6-24:
ESTIMATED SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN KANE AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE
School
Elementary
Kane County
Page
Gar fie Id County
Secondary
Kane County
Page
Gar fie Id County
1975
650
1,190
650
270
500
270
1980
920
1,280
650
340
500
270
1985
1,440
1,470
1,680
460
500
540
1990
1,700
1,740
2,100
540
550
670
2000
1,780
1,830
2,200
570
580
700
School enrollment projections in Table 6-24 are rather low
until the 1980's because short-term construction personnel do not
all bring families and because many of those who do bring chil-
dren will probably choose to live in Page, which balances the
enrollment decline after completion of the Navajo power plant.
Still, when the increased enrollment from Kaiparowits area
impacts is balanced with the decline in population and enrollment
from Navajo power plant, a net increase of only about 300 stu-
dents by 1985 and 600 by 1990 is expected in Page.
The impact of this approximate 30-percent increase in
enrollment by 1985 on Page will be relatively slight compared to
the impacts anticipated in Kane and Garfield Counties (Figure
6-8). The enrollment increase in these two counties will be more
than 100 percent by 1990. Further, this increase will occur in
a part of the area where, except for Escalante, school facilities
are not currently available. The financial impacts associated
with providing education for this increased school-age population
will be felt primarily in Garfield County (Table 6-25), although
the lead time is somewhat longer there than for Kane County.
Overall, about $14 million will be needed for schools in southern
Utah because of the energy development and about $2.7 million in
Page.
*• ,
6.4.5 Land Use Impacts
Overall land area needed for the two facilities will be
relatively small but must be taken from the few suitable sites in
the scenario area. The energy facilities would occupy less than
20 square miles, about the same as expected urban development in
the two-county area. The overall impact would amount to 0.4 per-
cent of the area of the two counties but considerably more of the
usable land area.
210
-------
CO
~O
c
o
(O
o
-------
TABLE 6-25: FINANCE PROSPECTS FOR KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE SCHOOL DISTRICTS,
1975-2000
Location
Kane County
Garfield County
Page
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
2000
1975
1980
1985
1990
2000
1975
1980
1985
1990
2000
Estimated
Enrollment
920
1,260
1,900
2,240
2,350
920
920
2,220
2,770
2,900
1,690
1,780
1,970
2,290
2,410
Classrooms
At 21 /Room
44c
60
90
107
112
44C
44
106
132
138
80C
85
94
109
115
Capital Expenditure
Required
(millions of dollars)3
0.8
2.4
3.3
3.6
0
3.2
4.6
5
0.2
0.7
, 1.5
1.8
Operating Expenditure
Required
(millions of dollars)
1.2
1.6
2.5
2.9
3.1
1.2
1.2
2.9
3.6
3.8
2.2
2.3
2.6
3
3.1
NJ
Cumulative, based on $2,500 per pupil space. See Froomkin, Joseph, J.R. Endriss, and R.W. Stump.
Population, Enrollment and Costs of Elementary and Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-81, Report to
the President's Commission on School Finance. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971.
Each year, based on current average of about $1,300 per pupil. See Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and
Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.:
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
"Estimated.
-------
Larger land use impacts may result from recreational pressure on
the land in Kane and Garfield Counties. The eastern part of the
two counties is virtually uninhabited at present. Details of the
impact of increased recreation uses in this area are discussed in
Section 6.5.
6.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
One of the most immediate local impacts from energy develop-
ment in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area will be a change in income
distribution both because energy and construction workers tend to
earn relatively high incomes and because local residents will be
able to find employment in energy development or to establish
retail businesses in the area. The income impact will be espe-
cially noticeable in southern Utah, where, the per capita income
is currently less than 70 percent of the national average.1
In making the income distribution projections, the patterns
recently found in currently affected energy resource communities
in the West were adopted.2 The construction phase results in a
43-percent rise in median household income by 1985, including
increased incomes for many long-time residents. This declines by
1990 but will remain 24 percent above current levels (Table 6-26
and Figures 6-9 and 6-10). The principal changes in the Kane and
Garfield County income distribution will be a large relative
decrease in low-income families and a predominance of families in
the $15,000-25,000 income range.
A second major impact will be an expansion in secondary
employment, especially retailing. Any necessary industrial
services are likely to be either provided within the mine-power
plant complexes or imported from outside the Kaiparowits area.
No other major industrial facilities are expected in the area
from this scenario. Substantial increases in service employment
to provide goods and services for the local population will be
part of the overall impact of energy development. Because retail
activities are market-oriented, their location is largely deter-
mined by the locations of customers and other businesses. There-
fore, much of the early impact, at least through 1980, will occur
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II) , pp. 1-75; Kiholm, Janet. "Personal Income
in Utah 1970-1975", Utah Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36
(June 1976), pp. 1-6.
2
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 50.
213
-------
TABLE 6-26:
PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES, 1975-2000
(Proportion of households in income categories)
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Annual Income
(1975 Dollars)
Less
than
4,000
.163
.091
.065
.076
.076
.076
4,000
to
5,999
.075
.046
.043
.051
.051
.051
6,000
to
7,999
.084
.048
.040
.089
.088
.088
8,000
to
9,999
.111
.077
.078
.092
.091
.091
10,000
to
11,999
.121
.102
.106
.114
.114
.114
12,000
to
14,999
.123
.119
.129
.132
.132
.132
15,000
to
24,999
.246
.396
.438
.383
.383
.383
25,000
and
over
.076
.121
.102
.063
.064
.064
Median
Household
Income
11,100
15,030
15,900
13,800
13,800
13,800
to
I—
Source: Data for 1975 are taken from U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. Household Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's, Cities, and Counties; 1970.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, and inflated to 1975 dollars.
Income distributions for construction, operation, and service workers are from
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington,
D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 50, assuming that "other newcomers"
are operation employees and that new service worker households have the same income
distribution as long-time residents.
-------
16n
to
M
(Jl
1975 1980 19SS 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 6-9: MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME, KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES, 1975-2000
-------
25,000
and over
15,000-
24,999
12,000-
14,999
10,000-
11,999
8000
9999
6000
7999
4000
5999
less than
4000
.076
.246
.123
.121
i in •
.111
.084
.075
WH^nHHM
.163
X
X
*
*
•
*
#
•
*
#
«
*
•
«
*
*
A
*
• •
# #
« «
0 *
A *
* *
9 *
# *
* •
*
*
•
*
«
*
.
\ \
\ \
"V
#
>
* *
'.
• *
* ,
#
*
*
*
*
» *
*. *
\ \
\SJ
\
*4
•4 O-4
.121
.396
11Q
.119
102
••§•••^•^••1
O77
.048
mmM,amiaefmm
.046
.091
-•-...
'••-...
*«J
'--.\
'»•..
'X
"*••..
••>
.102
.438
.129
.106
flTO
.Uf O
HBHI^HHHB^
HAD
.U*HJ
043
BMMMBM^HHMW
.065
••••*
.-'•
<
«•
y
y*
.•*
*
*
/
y
*
t
/
/
.»
/
/
,...— r*
.063
.383
.132
.092
.089
.051
.076
.064
.383
.132
•44A
.1 l*»
.091
.088
.051
.076
.064
.383
.132
114
.IIH
.091
.088
.051
.076
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 6-10:
ESTIMATED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR KANE AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES, 1975-2000
216
-------
at Page, where most energy workers will live and where businesses
are already serving Navajo power plant workers and their fam-
ilies. However, much of the 1975-1980 impact on Page from
Kaiparowits will have the effect of offsetting an economic
decline during the phase-out of construction at the Navajo
facility. Because of Page's current mix of goods and services
and its importance to the southern Utah area before the
Kaiparowits new town is built, a 75-percent increase in retail
activity (based on the expected population increase) at Page is
expected by 1990.
The Kaiparowits new town and, to a lesser extent Escalante,
will provide lower order (frequently purchased, often lower cost)
goods and services, while higher order retail activities will be
relatively more numerous at Page and, to some extent, Flagstaff.
Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area towns by the mid-
19801 s are likely to include a bank, taverns, gas stations, food
stores, restaurants, laundries, and probably clothing stores.
However, no large-scale economic benefit to the Page and southern
Utah area is likely to result because the goods purchased there
will largely be manufactured and wholesaled outside the area.
Flagstaff, Arizona, a rapidly growing city about 120 miles south
of Page, is likely to benefit from increased wholesale activity.
Salt Lake City and Phoenix should also benefit from increased
wholesale and retail activity as well as from state sales and
income tax receipts.
Local government expenditures will generally be manageable
except for Escalante. The Kaiparowits new town could plan to
meet public expenditure demands by including the energy facil-
ities in the Special Service Districts-^ Page already has the
Navajo power plant in its property tax base, and has excess
capacity in most of its public services. The new town's con-
struction presumably would include sufficient capital facilities
to handle all the expected population. Escalante, by means of
Special Service Districts, also could use energy facility tax
revenues but might have more trouble than other towns in having
ready capital in time for the demand. This is discussed further
in the section on fiscal impacts. In the view of some persons,
the new roads, pipelines, transmission lines, and reduced visi-
bility in the wilderness areas would also downgrade the scenic
Special Service Districts in Utah can supply water, sewage,
drainage, flood control, garbage, hospital, transportation,
recreation, and fire protection services. They may include
several noncontiguous areas, such as a power plant and a town
separated by several miles, and may cross jurisdictional bound-
aries. See Section 6.4.8.
217
-------
attractions of the area,l having serious implications for a
region which is currently dependent on tourism for its economic
livelihood.
Agriculture involves about 660 square miles in Kane and
Garfield Counties (about 7 percent of the area), down from 740
square miles in 1967. Eight percent of the labor force works in
agriculture, mainly cattle and sheep grazing operations. Little
ranching takes place near the scenario facility sites/ and it is
unlikely that energy development would adversely affect agricul-
ture. The amount of land now committed to national forest and
other federal uses also indicates that not much increase in
agriculture is likely in southern Utah. Smaller ranches will
gradually go .out of production or be consolidated into larger
units, but this is a national trend not expected to be influenced
by energy development.
Finally, the energy-related economic activity will result in
inflation in local housing and labor markets, perhaps equal to
the short-term increase in income. Project workers will be able
to outbid long-time local residents for land (where private land
is available) and for goods and services; some low-wage service
workers will be attracted away from their present jobs. Some
employees of existing businesses in the area can be expected to
move to higher paying jobs in the energy facilities.
B. Fiscal
The largest fiscal impact of the energy development hypoth-
esized in this scenario will arise from property taxes. Develop-
ment expenditures are estimated to be $983 million for the power
plant and $216 million for related coal mines at each site.
This is equivalent to 28 percent of the currently assessed valua-
tion in all of Utah.
2
Assuming that the current mill levy rates are maintained ,
and that the energy facilities are taxable at those levels, the
See Josephy, AlvinM. "Kaiparowits : The Ultimate Obsenity. "
Audubon Magazine, Vol. 78 (Spring 1976), pp. 64-90? Ives, Berry,
and William Schulze. Boomtown Impacts of Energy Development in
the Lake Powell Region, Draft Lake Powell Research Project Bul-
letin. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Insti-
tute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1976.
2
Current levies are 1.82 percent of full cash value in Kane
County and 1.68 percent in Garfield County (University of Utah,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 1976 Statistical
Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah, Bureau
of Economic and Business Research, 1976, Tables VII-16 and VII-17) .
218
-------
TABLE 6-27:
PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
Kane County^
Gar fie Id Countya
Escalante*3
Coconino County, Arizona^
1977
2.8
0
0
.03
1980
15.6
1
.01
.14
1985
21.8
18.3
.42
.17
1990
21.8
21.8
.48
.18
Tax on energy facilities.
Tax on residential and commercial development.
energy facilities and related residential and commercial development
will generate the property tax revenues shown in Table 6-27.
Only about 3 percent of the increased tax base in the area
will be accounted for by residential and commercial development.
All property taxes in Utah currently go to county and local
governments. On the average, school districts get 59.8 percent.1
By law, property tax will be due on both mine structures and
equipment (as calculated above) and on the coal resource when
mined. However, nonmetallic mines located on land leased from
public agencies have not been subjected to this "privilege tax"
in the past. Because of this precedent, and the heretofore
arbitrary application of taxes to other mineral deposits, no
potential revenues are assumed from this source.2
Utah will derive some benefit from federal royalties.
According to recently passed legislation, 12.5 percent of mine-
mouth value has been set as a target for royalty collection, and
of this amount 50 percent will be returned to the state.3 (A
portion of the state's share must be expended in the coal-impact
area, but we have credited all of it^to the state's account.)
University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research. 1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake City,
Utah: university of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, 1976, Table VII-14.
/
o
Bronder, Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining; Review with
Recommendations. Denver, Colo-: Western Governors' Regional
Energy Policy Office, 1976, appendix on Utah.
3Bureau of National Affairs. Energy Users' Report, Current
Developments No. 129 (January 29, 1976) , pp. A-3 through A-4.
219
-------
TABLE 6-28: ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL COAL ROYALTIES
(millions of dollars)
Fund
State
Reclamation
Total (including
others)
1980
1.8
1.5
3.7
1985
10.2
8.1
20.3
1990
18.3
14.7
36.7
2000
22.2
17.8
44.5
Using coal prices derived from the nominal case run of the SRI
modell (rising from $7.99/ton in 1975 to $13.71/ton by 2000, in
constant dollars), and assuming that all of the coal is obtained
through federal leases,2 royalties may be expected as in Table
6-28.
Excise taxes will apply both directly to the energy facil-
ities (a use tax on building materials, whether imported to the
state or bought locally) and indirectly (sales tax on the workers '
retail purchases). Construction activity will reach a peak in
1980, when $337 million of materials and equipment are installed.
At a rate of 4 percent, Utah would gain $13.5 million in use tax
revenue that year, and the counties would gain $1.7 million (at a
0.5-percent rate). After the completion of the energy facil-
ities, only the sales tax would continue. The $46 million/year
of retail sales^ would yield $1.4 million for the state of Utah,
$50,000 for Page, etc. These revenues are detailed in Table
6-29. Note that Page will not collect a use tax from the plants,
only a sales tax from retail activity.
As a final source of revenue, localities can charge for
basic services, most notably water and sewer. Taking the Utah
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park,
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. ;X
2
87 percent of the land in these counties is federally owned.
Assuming that 56.0 percent- of new personal income goes to
taxable purchases. This is the average rate for the mountain
states. See U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
The Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 1317 and 629.
220
-------
TABLE 6-29:
REVENUE FROM.SALES AND USE TAXES3
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Location
Utah
State
Kane County
Garfield County
Arizona
State
Page
1977
4.1
.51
.01
.12
.02
1980
14.2
1.52
.26
.58
.07
1985
11.3
.11
1.3
.59
.07
1990
1.4
.08
.1
.43
.05
Distribution of retail sales assumed proportional
to population.
average of $74.80 per capita for charges and miscellaneous fees
by local government,-'- additional local revenues can be expected
as shown in Table 6-30.
All the revenues cited in the preceding analysis are grouped
by jurisdiction in Table 6-31 to provide a basis for comparison
with expenditures.
As stated earlier, energy development will necessitate an
expansion of public services, especially in the areas of educa-
tion and water and sewage treatment, and thus will require sub-
stantial expenditures. In analyzing these requirements, standard
TABLE 6-30:
GOVERNMENT FEES FOR SERVICES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
County
Kane County
Escalante, Utah
Coconino, Arizona
1977
.06
.01
.07
1980
.31
.02
.32
1985
.58
.59
.39
1990
.61
.68
.42
"''Inferred from University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and
Business Research. 1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake
City, Utah: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, 1976, Table VI1-8.
221
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TABLE 6-31:
SUMMARY OF REVENUES FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Location
Utah Statea
Kane County
Kane School District
Gar field County
Garfield School District
Escalante
Arizona State
Arizona Local
1977
6.1
1.7
1.7
0
0
.02
.12
.12
1980
20
8.1
9.3
.6
.6
.05
.58
.53
1985
33.6
9.5
13
8.6
10.9
1.14
.59
.63
1990
26.1
9.5
13
8.8
13
1.26
.43
.65
Including funds for discretionary allocation to local
units.
accounting procedures were followed; capital and operating
expenditures were identified separately. It was assumed, as
stated previously, that $2,500 in capital costs will be incurred
for each additional student. (School enrollment is the only
substantial growth category foreseen in the decade of the 1990's,
either in expenditures or revenues.) Other likely capital
expenditures include $1,760 per capita for water and sewage
facilities, and $590 for other items1 (mostly hospitals and
parks). Table 6-32 shows the projected capital requirements of
Kane and Garfield Counties resulting from the application of
these figures to the appropriate population projections, by 5-
year periods.
For operating expenditures, it is assumed that Utah averages
will be maintained.2 The annual rates are projected in Table
6-33.
\.
A comparison of these requirements with the previously
tabulated revenue projections shows that Utah and many of its
local jurisdictions will enjoy substantial, positive fiscal
THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development
Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development
and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974
2
At $1,300 per year per student for schools, $197 per capita
for other local functions, and $645 for state government. See
University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake City, Utah:
University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
1976.
222
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TABLE 6-32:
CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS BY QUINQUENNIA
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Location
Kane County
Kane School District
Garfield School District
Escalante, Utah
Page, Arizona3
1976
to
1980
9.8
.8
0
.59
10.64
1981
to
1985
8.4
1.6
3.2
18.1
2.53
1986
to
1990
1
.8
1.4
2.66
1.9
1991
to
2000
NA
.3
.3
NA
NA
NA = not applicable, since no appreciable population
.increase.
a.
General government and schools.
benefits by 1980 if current tax rates are maintained. For
example, the Kane School District would receive additional prop-
erty tax revenues of $13.0 million/year by 1982, while only $1.7
million/year in additional operating funds would be needed, even
by 1990. The surplus will leave more than enough for the $3.2
million in capital to be accumulated over the first 15 years.
Similar circumstances await the county governments. The state
government will eventually collect about twice as much as is
needed for additional services ($26.1 million/year versus $12.3
million in 1990 and beyond). In fact, the disparity is even
greater in the mid-1980's, when some $11 million/year will be
realized from the use tax on construction materials.
TABLE 6-33:
INCREASES IN OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF
SELECTED LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
Utah State
Kane County
Kane School District
Garfield School District
Escalante, Utah
Page, Arizona3
1977
.80
.16
.18
0
.02
.25
1980
3.5
.82
.44
0
.05
.99
1982
4.8
.92
.77
.68
.32
.94
1985
11.2
1.53
1.27
1.69
1.57
1.41
1990
12.3
1.61
1.72
2.4
1.79
1.92
General government and schools,
223
-------
Municipalities, however, will experience negative fiscal
impacts if higher levels of government do not subsidize them.
Escalante and Page may be taken as examples of this problem.
Escalante's new revenues will just about keep pace with operating
expenditures until the mid-1980's, but later deficits will grow
to about $530,000 per year ($1.79 million new expenditures versus
$1.26 million new revenues). Moreover, Escalante must build new
facilities at a rate of $3.62 million/year during 1981-1985 if
the current quality of service is to be maintained. Fortunately,
the capital requirements will tail off to $.53 million/year in
the late 1980's, and a negligible level thereafter, due to a
leveling off of population growth.
Similarly, in Page, Arizona, operating deficits will widen
continually, from $.46 million in 1980 to $.78 million in 1985
and $1.27 million in 1990.* Capital requirements will peak at
$2.13 million/year in the late 1970's, coming down to about $.45
million through the 1980's.
The disparities between state, county, and municipality
revenues arise because the former units can tax energy developers
directly but the latter can tax only the new population. Coun-
ties levy property taxes and use taxes on the facilities; the
state gets a share of federal coal royalties, the larger .part of
sales and use taxes, and an income tax. Thus, their revenues can
grow faster than population (and hence costs) without any change
in tax rates. However, as long as municipalities rely on
population-determined taxes (residential property, utility fees,
retail sales), they cannot expand revenues faster than population
without raising their rates.
6.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts
The major sociocultural impact resulting from the Kaiparowits/
Escalante development will be a drastic alteration of the dom-
inant lifestyle in the area. At present, communities are small,
relatively isolated, and inhabited by persons who have esta-
blished rural traditions2 and strong religious beliefs. Resi-
dents of the communities are family and extended family oriented.
The influx of individuals with different geographical, cultural,
and religious origins, higher incomes, and a somewhat more urban
perspective will provide a sharp contrast to the present popula-
tion. Because these new residents will eventually outnumber the
present population, changes in the dominant lifestyle will occur.
Deficits include both school and general local government.
2
Minar, David W., and Scott Greer. The Concept of Community;
Readings with Interpretations. Chicago, 111.: Aldine, 1969.
224
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Religious and value differences could also be problems. The
inhabitants of southern Utah are almost exclusively Mormon,
whereas a large number of the immigrants will probably not be.
Mormon standards may conflict with immigrant preferences, partic-
ularly with regard to intoxicants and smoking, and conflicts from
these differences may well arise for immigrant school children.
In addition, the evangelistic posture of the Mormon church could
have an effect by generating both converts and conflicts. The
lack of alternative churches in Utah may make Page a worship
center because eight denominations, in addition to the Latter Day
Saints, have congregations there.
Dissatisfactions with mobile home living and insufficient
social services will produce impacts such as high divorce rates
and other indications of community and family stress.! One
aspect of this mentioned above will be an increased crime rate.
However, after construction activity is completed (by 1988),
these local problems should decrease significantly.
Although community medical facilities appear capable of
meeting projected needs to 1985, adequate medical personnel will
be hard to retain because doctors generally are reluctant to live
in isolated, nonmetropolitan areas. The two Utah counties will
need 39 doctors by 1990 to meet the national average of one
doctor per 660 population; to even maintain the current average
of one doctor per 1,320 population will require 14 physicians
more than the five who currently practice there.
Because the population increases in the area will be caused
primarily by the energy development activities, a number of
"company town" characteristics may develop in area communities.
Work schedules, holidays, and vacations might well determine the
hours for businesses in these communities, creating an impression
of company domination. Company-owned buildings and vehicles will
also contribute to this impression, creating resentment among
some native residents. The new town near Glen Canyon City will
probably show the greatest "company town" tendencies.
For a further discussion of boomtown problems, see Gilmore,
John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Development." Science,
Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-540; Kneese, Allan V.
"Mitigating the Undesirable Aspects of Boom Town Development,"
pp. 74-76; Talagan, D.P., and W.E. Rapp. "Mitigation of Social
Impacts on Individuals, Families, and Communities in Rapid Growth
Areas," pp. 71-74 in Federation of Rocky Mountain States. Energy
Development in the Rocky Mountain Region; Goals and Concerns.
Denver, Colo.: Federation of Rocky Mountain States, 1975.
225
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6.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
Population growth and economic development at Kaiparowits/
Escalante almost of necessity will increase the role of govern-
ment in terms of demands for public services and facilities. As
shown in the preceding analysis, most of these demands will fall
on Kane and Garfield Counties, their localities, and to a lesser
degree on Page, Arizona. The state government of Utah likewise
will be affected, particularly with regard to legislative poli-
cies and programs, tax collection and distribution procedures,
and other energy-related problems of statewide planning and
growth management.
Immediate governmental impacts will occur as local communi-
ties, confronted with or anticipating rapid population increases,
demand expenditures to provide essential services. In the case
of Kane and Garfield Counties, the bulk of the population is
located in the western half of each county. Most of the popula-
tion increases, on the other hand, will take place in the resource
areas, which are in the eastern parts of the area.
Although as noted in the fiscal analysis, revenues in the
two Utah counties will be adequate to provide service improve-
ments, problems may occur relative to the timing and distribution
of available tax monies for communities if higher levels of
government do not subsidize them. For example, even though
Escalante's new revenues appear to keep pace with operating
expenditures until the mid-1980's, later deficits expand to
$530,000 per year. Furthermore, Escalante must build new facil-
ities at a rate of $3.62 million per year during 1981-1985 if
present tax rates are maintained in this community.
The timing problem (i.e., the potential impact of lagging
revenues) for localities might be averted if resource developers
choose to prepay all or a portion of the taxes anticipated from
the facility development and if such monies are distributed to
the point of impact. However, as enacted in 1975, the Utah sales
and use tax prepayment provision is restricted in several ways.l
First, it is voluntary on the part of the developer and appears
to give no incentive to the developer to prepay (e.g., in the
form of discounts, interest on tax credits, etc.). Second and
more critical to mitigating local impacts are restrictions
limiting aid to "state-related public improvements", such as
schools and highways. The preceding fiscal analysis shows that
the agencies primarily concerned with these projects (e.g.,
school districts) will manage without such assistance. The
Utah Code Annotated, § § 63-51-1 et seq. (Cumulative Supple-
ment 1975).
226
-------
problem for state programs is not one of time, for these
jurisdictions have surpluses from the start; rather, the problem
is that municipalities need help in meeting their front-end
financing problems.
In addition to the above limitations, the process of dis-
tributing revenues collected through Utah's prepayment statute
does not insure that the available funds will get to the point of
need in a reliable manner. The Utah legislature is required to
approve appropriations for public service projects to be funded,
thereby increasing the length of time required for the disburse-
ment of monies and raising the level of uncertainty as to their
availability. This is especially significant because the legis-
lature meets only once every 2 years.
There also appears to be some question as to the adequacy of
the increased revenues which Page and Coconino County can expect
to receive for purposes of service and facilities improvements.
In Page, Arizona, operating deficits widen continually during
1980—1990. Some fiscal adjustments may be required by the
respective local and county governments because Arizona must
depend on ad valorem property taxes and assessed valuations con-
nected with population growth and increased sales taxes to
finance public improvements.
Fiscal impacts and problems of tax distribution underscore
the importance of adequate planning at every level of government.
The planning capacity of Kane and Garfield Counties, as previ-
ously indicated, is limited. Only Kane County has a zoning
ordinance and planning commission, and both staffs are small.
The Kaiparowits Planning and Development Council was established
to provide the two Utah counties access to additional profes-
sional planning expertise. In addition, the state has taken
several earlier steps to reinforce, the role and capabilities of
local officials by developing a planning and coordination struc-
ture to assist localities.1 Beginning in May 1970, eight multi-
county planning districts (since reduced to seven) were established
by executive order of the Governor. Members of the designated
districts formed associations of government (AOG's), with Kane
and Garfield joining the Five County AOG in southern Utah. Gen-
erally, membership in the Five County AOG is composed of elected
city and county officials; however, it includes elected members
of the school board and invited representatives of higher educa-
tion and state legislators to sit ex-officio. The association
decides what issues it chooses to deal with, what funds it
i /
Information pn the Utah intergovernmental planning struc-
ture is summarized mainly from Utah, State Planning Coordinator
and Department of Community Affairs. Intergovernmental Planning
Coordination; The Utah Experience. Salt Lake City, Utah: State
of Utah, 1975.
227
-------
accepts for these purposes, and whether it will undertake direct
operation of programs. The AOG also sends representatives to the
Governor's Advisory Council on Local Affairs (GACLA) to coordi-
nate local involvement in the state government planning process.
Besides the GACLA, the governor of Utah has another state-
wide advisory group, the State Planning Advisory Committee, which
seeks to coordinate the responses of state agencies to both
federal and local issues and bring state agencies under a common
set of priorities and policies.1 This committee and the multi-
county AOG serve additionally as state and area clearinghouses
under the federal Office of Management and Budget A-95 review
procedures.2
As described above, Utah's arrangements and procedures for
intergovernmental coordination remain largely untested, at least
in terms of the energy-related problems the state confronts in
this scenario. Until the scenario unfolds over time, it will
remain unknown whether the typical lag between the need for
government planning and services and their provision will or will
not prevail here. The fact that there is so much federal land in
the area suggests that proper planning in advance will be even
more essential in this scenario than elsewhere.3 it also sug-
gests that the market for the best land could easily be bid out
of reach of all but large, nonlocal interests. Further, the
location and status of the Kaiparowits new town will raise
numerous issues involving both the state and county governments,
as well as federal-state relations.
Besides facility finances, another traditional category of
government concern that may be affected by energy resource
To carry out its duties, the State Planning Advisory Com-
mittee has established three interdepartmental coordination
groups within three major categories: Human Services, Economic
and Physical Development, and Regulatory.
2
Office of Management and Budget Circular A-95 establishes
the requirement for states to provide the opportunity for gov-
ernors and local officials to comment on applications for federal
funds to undertake a variety of categorical programs, and requires
agencies of the federal government to consider the comments of
the general public in approving specific applications for funds.
Numerous federal grants for facilities and services require A-95
review procedures as a condition for their award.
For example, police and fire protection and medical care
involve important locational and accessibility criteria that must
be considered. The Unavailability of federal land could con-
strain such services to very non-optimal sites if the best sites
are either on federal land or are sold for other uses.
228
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development is police protection; that is, increases in area
crime due to energy-related development and population increase
might result in law enforcement problems.1 However, increases in
crime appear to vary greatly from community to community and are
not always perceived to be disproportionate.2 present law
enforcement personnel will be insufficient for the communities
likely to be affected, and salary disparities between area law
enforcement and energy facility security jobs may result in loss
of some community officers to the higher paid positions.
In addition to impacts noted above, energy development at
Kaiparowits/Escalante' may result in changes for traditional
organized interests and could, over the long run, affect .the
power base of political groups and other parties-at-interest in
energy-impacted communities. For example, the change in land use
from ranching and tourism to urban, industrial, and residential
activities will result in social and political stress in the
area. Long-time residents whose way of life, and possibly live-
lihood, are threatened by energy development could become a
political force that might make additional demands on the devel-
opers. Although the southern Utah mood is generally pro-
development, some groups will be affected more severely than
others and in some ways anticipated by them. Therefore, some polit-
ical differences appear likely. These may well be exacerbated if,
as is likely, newcomers displace natives on the governing bodies
of city and county governments and in such organizations as
PTA's, Chambers of Commerce, etc. If construction-related
residents, who are known to be temporary, are perceived to be
overly active politically, hostility can result.
6.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts
The Kaiparowits/Escalante development will result in an
approximate 400-percent population increase for southern Utah
(to more than 25 thousand people) by 1990. The largest local
increases should occur in Escalante and at the Kaiparowits new
town. However, much of the secondary employment personnel will
be attracted to Page, Arizona. Housing and school needs will be
greatest at Escalante, less at the new town (where the develop-
ment plan should anticipate demand with several school buildings),
/:
Crime rates have often increased in other boom towns. See
Coon, RandalC., et al. The Impact of the Safeguard Antiballistic
Missile System Construction on Northeastern North Dakota, Agri-
cultural Economics Report No. 101. Fargo, N.D-: North Dakota
State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, 1976, pp.
15-16; Gilmore, John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Develop-
ment." Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-540.
2
Summers, Gene F., et al. Industrial Invasion of Honmetro-
politan America. New York, N.Y.: Praeger, 1976.
229
-------
and less at Page, where the increase will be fairly gradual and
will balance with the downturn in activity from construction of
the Navajo power plant.
A long-term impact on the age structure in the area will
result, with younger workers and families moving into an area
which has recently seen much out-migration by young adults. In
the short term, an imbalance of males and females could cause
social problems during project construction. The average income
in the area will, increase by at least 24 percent, and, except for
Coconino County and Page, governmental revenues will increase.
Most all of the impacts will occur in the eastern portions of the
two counties, the area now least populated. This will intensify
the planning -for and delivery of social services, and it may
result in some tension between the new population in the east and
the natives in the west.
Revenues generated by the development will support the
expansion of public services and professional staff required in
southern Utah. However, Page will not benefit directly and will
suffer a net loss in providing services to the portion of the
population increase expected to locate there.
By 1990, most of the negative economic impacts associated
with population increases will have been absorbed. From this
time forward, economic impacts will be almost entirely benefi-
cial, especially in terms of tax revenues and personal income.
6.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
6.5.1 Introduction
The area considered for ecological impacts in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante scenario extends northward from the Colorado River to
include the Aquarius Plateau and Boulder Mountain. The western
boundary is the Paria River and the eastern boundary is the Henry
Mountains. Topographically, the area is a series of benches or
plateaus, separated by steep cliffs as much as 2,000 feet in
height. The entire landscape rises gradually from 4,000 feet in
the semiarid benchlands at Glen Canyon Dam to more than 10,500
feet on the relatively moist Aquarius Plateau. Elevational
change, with associated rainfall variation of 6-20 inches per
year, is the major factor determining the distribution of pre-
dominant plant communities. Within each community type, soil
moisture largely determines the relative abundance of plant
species.
6.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
Biological communities in the Kaiparowits Plateau area are
comprised primarily of plants and animals adapted for survival in
230
-------
a harsh, arid or semiarid environment.! Nevertheless, these
populations fluctuate from year to year in response to climatic
variations, especially in the amount of moisture. Slight varia-
tions in precipitation can cause major changes in the production
of plants; in turn, the levels of plant productivity tend to
place a ceiling on the potential abundance of animal life.
The flora of the Kaiparowits Plateau contains a blend of
cold and warm desert species, resulting in a diversity of plant
life. The dominant vegetation types in the immediate vicinity of
the hypothetical energy facilities are pinyon-juniper woodland on
the plateau and several desert shrub and grassland communities at
lower elevations toward the Colorado River.2 Some soilless,
rocky areas are entirely barren. At the Kaiparowits facility
site, pinyon pine and juniper trees cover up to 62 percent of the
surface. Mountains to the north support coniferous forests that
consist mostly of ponderosa pine and Douglas fir.
Animal life is diverse but sparse, probably because acces-
sible water is relatively scarce. Large mammals include mule
deer, pronghorn antelope, mountain lion, coyotes, foxes, and
bobcats. •* Over 200 species of birds use the area at least sea-
sonally, and about 60 species of smaller terrestrial vertebrates
occur, including mammals, reptiles, and amphibians.4 The only
rare or endangered species known to occur in the area directly
affected by the scenario activities is the peregrine falcon,
which occasionally appears in the summer.5 Table 6-34 summarizes
characteristic species of the major terrestrial community types
in the scenario area.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal
Task Force. Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H: Report of the
Biota Work Group. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Informa-
tion Service, 1972. PB-232 104, pp. ,23-30,
Bighorn sheep occur in the Circle Cliffs area, which is the
northern border of the Escalante River Valley.
4
Some of the small mammals may be important to arid south-
west ecosystems. For example, kangaroo rats help maintain
nutrient cycles. Chew, R.M., andA.E. Chew. "Energy Relationships
of the Mammals of a Desert Shrub (Larrea tridentata) Community."
Ecological Monographs, Vol. 40 (1970), pp. 1-21.
A colony of the endangered Utah prairie dog is located
about 25 miles to the north, and another has been introduced in
Bryce Canyon to the west.
231
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TABLE 6-34:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
Community Type
Characteristic
Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Salt Desert Shrub
and Grasslands
Blackbrush
Spiny hopsage
Shadscale
Rabbitbrush
Galleta grass
Indian ricegrass
Pronghorn antelope
Buffalo
Canyon mouse
Chukar
Horned lark
Side-blotched lizard
Coyote
Badger
Rugged Areas
Same as desert
Shrub
Bighorn sheep
Rock squirrel
Bats
Birds of prey
Mountain lion
Bobcat
Pinyon-Juniper
Woodland
Utah juniper
Double-leaf pinyon
Buffaloberry
Cliffrose
Sagebrush
Indian ricegrass
Blue grama
Mule deer
Desert cottontail
Bushytail woodrat
Pinyon j ay
Chickadee
Coyote
Fox
Mountain lion
Bobcat
Plateau Coniferous
Forest
Ponderosa pine
Douglas fir
Engelmann spruce
Aspen
Gambel oak
Mule deer
Black bear
Wild turkey
Band-tailed pigeon
Beaver
Chipmunk species
Clark's nutcracker
Dipper
Coyote
Bobcat
232
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The physical and chemical properties of Lake Powell make it
a productive lake with a largely self-sustaining sport fishery.
The lake supports about 19 species of fish via a food chain that
includes a diversity of algae and invertebrates. The lake is
primarily a warm water habitat, and fishes such as largemouth
bass are abundant in the upper water layers and shallow bays.
Deeper, cooler layers contain trout.
6.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
During the 1975-1980 period, construction of the Kaiparowits
power plant will begin, with the labor force peaking in 1980.
Population increases during this period center in a new town to
be built on East Clark Bench, which is expected to have a popula-
tion of 2000 by 1980. Population in Kane County as a whole
increases by 70 percent during this 5-year period. Construction
of the new town will remove a total of 3,900 acres of salt-
tolerant shrub grassland, while the new Cannonville-Kaiparowits
highway and the" Kaiparowits plant facilities completed by 1980
will claim a total of 8,210 acres,1 approximately equally divided
between pinyon-juniper woodland and shrub grassland. Table 6-35
summarizes these vegetation losses.
Between 1980 and 1990, the Kaiparowits plant will come on
line (1983), followed by the Escalante plant (1987). Transmis-
sion lines for both plants will be built during this decade.
TABLE 6-35: VEGETATION LOSSES: KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
(acres)
Community Type
Pinyon- Juniper
Salt-tolerant
shrub grassland
Plateau conifers
Ponderosa pine
Sagebrush
Barren land
Total
1975-1980
4,110
4,080
20
8,210
1980-1990
5,130
1,070
350
140
6,690
1990-2000
40
290
50
380
Cumulative
Total
9,280
5,150
350
290
50
160
15,280
Includes only that portion of the mine site to be occupied
by surface structures.
233
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Habitat lost in the 1980-1990 decade is principally pinyon-juniper
woodland with smaller amounts of shrub-grassland, plateau coni-
fers, and barren land as shown in Table 6-35. Also during this
decade, the population of Kane and Garfield counties will rise by
an additional 54 percent and 216 percent, respectively; the
Kaiparowits new town will have about 6,940 residents in 1990.
Page, Arizona will act as a secondary focus of growth and will
have grown by a cumulative 13 percent by 1990. The town of
Escalante will grow from 900 to 9,730 persons in this period.
Between 1990 and 2000, the only major impacts on habitat
availability will arise from working the limestone quarry which
will serve both plants. Cumulatively, the quarry will occupy 380
acres, mostly- in ponderosa pine. Population will continue to
climb slightly, growing by 5 percent in both Kane and Garfield
counties. Page's population will rise by roughly 6 percent.
Figure 6-11 shows the distribution of energy facilities and
the associated human activities likely to have the greatest
impact on ecosystems. Some of these land-use trends are now
evident or could occur regardless of energy-related growth.
However, their extent is directly related to the number of people
drawn into the area by the energy resource developments.
6.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
During most of this period, construction activity will be
limited to clearing the Kaiparowits plant site, building heavy-
duty access roads, and laying the plant water line. Construction
activities will peak at Kaiparowits by 1980, the year when
activities at Escalante will be just beginning.
Impacts on agriculture during this period will be confined
to the loss of grazing on lands used for scenario facilities.
Carrying capacity for livestock has been assumed to be 10-15
acres of forage per month for a cow and calfl in pinyon-juniper
rangeland and 18-22 acres of forage per month for a cow and calf
in salt-tolerant shrub-grassland. Land commitments for the
scenario would therefore eliminate the forage normally used in a
year by 60-90 cows and calves. Normally, these lands are used
for only 6 months in the winter or summer. Therefore, the
maximum number of cows with calves represented by this loss is
120-180. Further, not all lands affected by the scenario are
grazed under the present Bureau of Land Management (BLM) program.
Consequently, potential livestock reductions are less than this
maximum.
The forage required to support a cow with calf or five
sheep for a month is called an animal unit month.
234
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(-.
~~^° % ''i;;:^5*^§|v/p
Existing Roads
1 Proposed Roads
= Water Line and Pumping Station
-„ , „„ _ « _ _ _ _ Transmission Line
•V:".'.•:••;::••.'•'•'•;'•'• Probable Recreation
9 Probable Housing and Business
i§^&S3$£>rA* Pr°bable Recreation Concentration
FIGURE 6-11:
HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA
235
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Most of the habitat lost in this period will be in
pinyon-juniper woodlands of the plateau. This habitat supports a
wide variety of vertebrate species and constitutes the bulk of
the winter range of the Kaiparowits deer herd. Deer are distributed
unevenly over the plateau in small groups which do not fully use
the habitat available. Estimates used in the Draft Environmental
Statement for the Kaiparowits project suggest that the proposed
plant site may be used by some 60 deer seasonally, or year-round
by roughly 20.! Total habitat loss in this decade, however,
amounts to roughly 1 percent of the Kaiparowits winter deer
range. Consequently, it is not expected that overall carrying
capacity will be significantly reduced.
The new town is located in the range of the East Clark Bench
antelope herd, which may ultimately disappear from the area
through the combined effects of poaching, harrassment, and
habitat deterioration. These antelope, numbering perhaps 25-30,
are the remnants of an attempt at reintroduction. Habitat
quality, rather than available area, appears to limit their
numbers, and they are expected to decline with or without the
development of the new town.
Construction activities, noise, traffic, and high levels of
human activity will cause some local stress to wildlife. Increased
access to the plateau will result in a significant increase in
game poaching, a problem typically observed during construction
periods in other western areas.2 Poaching, together with the
present steady downtrend in the Kaiparowits herd, could have
measurable effects on total numbers. Birds of prey are also
traditional targets for illegal shooting. The problem of illegal
killing will worsen when the Cannonville-Kaiparowits highway is
built.
During the 1975-1980 period, increased recreational demands
may be expected to exert their greatest influence on the desert
ecosystem below the plateau rim. Extensive areas of BLM land,
which are potentially attractive sites for off-road vehicle (ORV)
Arizona, Department of Health Services, Bureau of Air
Quality Control, as cited in U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement;
Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah:
Bureau of Land Management, 1976.
2
Unlike legitimate single-sex hunting, which is also likely to
increase, poaching takes animals of both sexes and can affect the
population's ability to maintain its numbers by reproduction.
236
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use, lie within easy access of Page and the new town. Heavy use
of these areas may eventually result in extensive local erosion
and accompanying vegetation loss.l
B. Impacts to 1990
By the end of the second scenario decade, the Kaiparowits
and Escalante plants will both be on-line, and population will
have risen sharply. Also during this time frame, the limestone
quarry to supply the power plant/scrubbers will be opened.
Removal of water from Lake Powell for the Kaiparowits
project has been predicted to result in salinity increases of
roughly 2 mg/A at Imperial Dam.2 The present scenario would no
more than double this effect, which would constitute approx-
imately 0.3 percent of the salinity projected for the year 2000
by several agencies.3 Thus, the impact of the scenario alone on
downstream water use for irrigated agriculture will be negli-
gible. Other agricultural impacts of the 1980-1990 decade stem
from the loss of grazing land. Excluding transmission line
rights-of-way, which may be reseeded and recover their grazing
value, the forage lost is equivalent to the yearly forage requirements
of 40-50 cows with calves. Not all the land disturbed is nor-
mally allotted to grazing; therefore, these numbers are a maxi-
mum. Based on 6-month pasturing, this amount of forage might
support 80-100 cows with calves.
The seriousness of the impact of off-road vehicle use will
depend on the success of efforts to control it on public lands;
the kinds of trails made, and their manner of use. Where a trail
is used infrequently and plant roots are not damaged, the vegeta-
tion may recover in one season. However, roads which climb
slopes at steep angles and break the surface of the soil may
begin to gully after about 5 years from infrequent but intense
thunderstorms. (Personal communication with staff, Paria Unit,
Bureau of Land Management, 1976).
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976.
Some published estimates of future salinity levels at
Imperial Dam, range from 1220 mg/% United States Bureau of .
Reclamation, to 1340 mg/$, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control
Act of 1974, Pub. L. No. 93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43
U.S.C.A. 1571 et seq.) (Supp. 1976). Note that if water for
energy development were instead used for agriculture, runoff from
croplands would result in larger increases in downstream salinity.
237
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Habitat loss during this period is centered on the
pinyon-juniper woodland of the Kaiparowits Plateau around Escalante,
bringing the cumulative total loss to roughly 2 percent of the
Kaiparowits deer range. A total of 1,220 acres of the pinyon-
juniper habitat lost in this decade will be claimed by transmis-
sion line rights-of-way. While vegetation will be completely
cleared, regrowth in the absence of root competition from trees
may be equal or superior to the original vegetation as wildlife
forage, especially if the right-of-way is seeded. This addi-
tional productive vegetational discontinuity may result in local
increases in small vertebrate diversity. The limestone quarry
lies adjacent to the range of a healthy antelope herd, but the
bulk of the habitat to be disturbed is unsuitable for them.
Habitat quality will also be affected between 1980 and 1990
by several new influences. Increased traffic on new roads
crossing the Kaiparowits Plateau will add to the yearly road-kill
of animals, especially since the proposed Cannonville-Glen
Canyon City highway right-of-way transects the present direction
of deer migration. 1 Enhanced access to the plateau will probably
increase the amount of game poaching and extend it to a wider
area. The cumulative effects could result in continued decline
in deer numbers.
Mining and groundwater withdrawal for municipal use will
probably bring about a decrease in discharge to springs and seeps
over an unspecified portion of the area. These discharges have a
strong influence on the distribution of many kinds of wildlife,
such as deer, mourning doves, and numerous small birds and mam-
mals with restricted ranges that require accessible water to
sustain life. The cumulative effect on the plateau ecosystem of
groundwater losses, depending on the extent to which accessible
water sources are affected, will be a combination of redistribu-
tion of water-dependent species away from depleted springs or
seeps and perhaps a decrease in their overall population.
The loss of water from these sources will be partially
mitigated by the addition of surge ponds on the water lines and
on-site raw water reservoirs. Reservoirs located in the pinyon-
juniper zone might be used by a variety of wildlife, provided
that deer-proof fencing is not used. However, these reservoirs
will not replace natural springs and seeps that support vegeta-
tion. Surge ponds will be located in the desert ecosystem where
they will constitute a distinct benefit if not restrictively
fenced. Partridge, pheasant, and quail could establish new popu-
lations around these ponds, provided other habitat requirements
are met.
The Kaiparowits herd is already declining.
238
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Treated municipal wastes maybe discharged into the Escalante
River from the town of Escalante. These wastes usually contain
large amounts of nutrients that can stimulate algal growth. The
amount of discharge would be insufficient to maintain base flow
in the dry summer period. Nuisance algal blooms, causing odors
and reducing dissolved oxygen, could result if the effluent stag-
nates in pools. Adverse impacts of this kind would be greatest
at periods of low flow.
After the two power plants begin operations, air pollutants
of various kinds will enter the atmosphere. Ground-level concen-
trations of sulfur dioxide are estimated to reach peak 3-hour
average values of about 800 micrograms per cubic meter where
plume impaction on high terrain may occur (see Section 6.2).
This concentration is equivalent to about 0.3 parts per million
(ppm), which is below acute damage levels for those desert plants
which have been tested (acute damage has been measured in desert
plants typically in the range of 2-10 ppm for 2-6 hour expo-
sures) . More sensitive desert species may exist but they have not
been tested. The potential for chronic damage may exist, but
there are insufficient data to support a conclusion. Generally,
damage due to acid rainfall is not expected due to the low
humidity and limited precipitation, although periods of active
plant growth and hence increased susceptibility'to acid rain are
closely related to rainfall.
C. Impacts to 2000
By 1990, the population of Garfield County and Kane County
(see Section 4.5) should triple. Thus, living space, water, and
recreation needs in these counties will lead to both local and
areawide changes in land use. ORV use, camping, hiking, and
other activities will continue to affect vegetation locally and
contribute to erosion. New roads to be developed by the Forest
Service to accommodate increased recreational use will provide
access to previously isolated areas.
Urban growth around Escalante, Page, and the Kaiparowits new
town will result in an increase in ORV recreation on the deserts
near Lake Powell. A new road planned to parallel Lake Powell's
north shore will open access to new areas. In addition, poaching
will continue along roads and near towns, although levels may
decline somewhat after the Escalante construction peak. Residen-
tial growth will also result in fragmentation of habitat, partic-
ularly along highways following river valleys. If allowed to run
free, dogs may also affect wildlife in the area.l The cumulative
Dogs have become a serious concern in some parts of Colorado; a
review of the problem, from the sportsman's viewpoint, is given
in Oertle, V. Lee. "What's Happening to Western States' Deer
Hunting?" Sports Afield (September 1975).
239
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effect of these influences will be to reduce the abundance and
diversity of wildlife within as much as 5-10 miles of residential
centers.
Increased populations will add to the recreational pressure
placed on the Dixie National Forest and nearby highlands. Major
potential impacts include loss of vegetation cover, particularly
around lake shores and stream banks as a consequence of uncon*-
trolled camping and ORV use associated with fishing. Some summer
deer range could also be affected. Loss of shore vegetation, if
not controlled by restricting use of these areas, can lead to
erosion and siltation problems which could lower the production
of fish in lakes already under stress from a long-term drying
trend. Continuing growth in fishing pressure will, by this
decade, have depleted naturally reproducing trout populations,
and the fishery will probably be maintained exclusively by
stocking. Small parcels of privately owned land within the
National Forest are expected to be developed as recreational
subdivisions. This change in use will disturb wildlife and tend
to fragment winter deer range. Hunting will also increase but
can be controlled by employing management practices such as
setting hunting seasons, limiting the numbers of permits issued,
and setting bag limits. However, demand will probably exceed
the amount of deer, and perhaps upland game birds, which can be
harvested without a population decline.
Some of the long-term changes due to the outputs of facil-
ities are potentially significant. For example, large wastewater
impoundments may attract wildlife during dry periods, but it is
not likely that animals will prefer the highly polluted water to
the clean water in the plant raw water reservoirs.1 Also, mate-
rials leached from these ponds may enter groundwater. Although
recent evidence suggests that trace metals do not migrate far
through soils, some salts (such as sulfates and carbonates) may.2
The fate of the soluble organic compounds is uncertain. After
the facilities are abandoned, the chemicals left in the evapora-
tion ponds may eventually enter surface wxaters from dike failure
Crawford and Church found that captive black-tailed deer
avoid salty (sodium chloride) and bitter (sodium acetate and
acetic acid) solutions in concentrations well ,below those
expected in an evaporation pond. Crawford, James C., and D.C.
Church. "Response of Blacktailed Deer to Various Chemical Taste
Stimuli." Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 35 (No. 2, 1971),
pp. 210-15.
2
Holland, W.F., et al. The Environmental Effects of Trace
Elements in the Pond Disposal of Ash and Flue Gas Desulfurization
Sludge, Final Report, Electric Power Research Institute Project
No. 202. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975, p. 3.
240
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or erosion. If high concentrations enter the shallow bays of
Lake Powell, for example, fish might be killed or avoid the con-
taminated areas.
Considerable concern has been expressed over the long-term
contamination of Lake Powell by trace elements emitted in plant
stack gases. For example, mercury can reach the lake from the
facilities by direct fallout from emissions and by runoff. Cal-
culations made for mercury deposition from the Kaiparowits plant
alone range from 16 to 480 pounds of mercury entering the lake
each year. These numbers are 1 to 27 percent of the present
estimated rate of addition from natural sources. An unknown
fraction of this input is converted to the organic form and
enters the food chain. The emissions of the Escalante plant
would contribute additional mercury, although the position of the
site makes it likely that the amount would be less than that of
Kaiparowits.
There is evidence to suggest that very small increases in
mercury entering the aquatic food chain could result in eleva-
tions of mercury levels in fish tissues exceeding the limits set
by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as safe for human con-
sumption. Current levels in some predatory fish in Lake Powell
exceed FDA standards of 500 ppm. Although based on limited
knowledge, the movement of mercury as the elemental vapor from
power plant emissions into the aquatic food chain has been esti-
mated to cause increases of 10-50 percent in animal tissues,
depending on number of plants, their location, and coal charac-
ter istics.l However, these estimates are based on limited data.
Arsenic additions from the facilities will deposit an esti-
mated total of 600-5,000 pounds of arsenic per year. Unknown
fractions of this would enter Lake Powell. The effects of this
amount of arsenic on both terrestrial and aquatic portions of the
food chain are largely unknown.
Additional toxic substances will be emitted from the power
plants, including about 1,000 pounds of fluorides per year.2
Manganese, chromium, nickel, and lead will be emitted in quanti-
ties comparable to the mercury releases. Expected ambient con-
centrations and effects of these materials on the ecosystem are
Standiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E. Kidd. Mercury in
the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin
No. 1. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute
of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1973, p. 16.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah; Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976, p. 111-65.
241
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largely unknown. Much larger quantities of the materials will
either be removed from stack gases and deposited in the evapora-
tive settling ponds or placed in ash disposal sites.
6.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts
Table 6-36 summarizes the impacts discussed in the preceding
sections under three classes. Class C impacts are those which
affect very small proportions (less than 3 percent) of the total
available habitat of any given kind and/or occur infrequently,
although the effect may be locally severe. Class B impacts are
more widespread and have effects which may noticeably alter the
composition of the entire ecosystem or may selectively affect a
particular species. Class A impacts can potentially affect large
proportions of a given habitat type or have severe impacts on
populations of one or more species.
The cumulative impact of energy resource development on the
ecosystem will most likely be to lower the diversity of wildlife
locally, increase erosion, and contribute to the decline of
several species. Specific populations of game animals and fish
will experience selectively heavy stresses and decline in number.
These impacts will result from the combined effects of direct
habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, and diffuse human distur-
bances. Impacts on several major species are summarized in
Table 6-37. Major contributors to these disturbances will
include: habitat degradation in such areas as the high plateaus
due to diffuse recreational activity; subdivision of lands for
recreational developments; growth of residential and commercial
land use and its influence on the quality of surrounding habitat;
increased illegal hunting; and increased fishing in high plateau
lakes.
Although these disturbances will not break down the struc-
tural and functional integrity of the ecosystems, local areas
will probably experience internal adjustments affecting indivi-
dual species populations. For example, development activities
and anticipated increases in sport hunting for predators may
minimize the importance of mountain lion as a natural predator of
mule deer, but coyotes (and possibly wild dogs) will assume
greater importance as predators.
Cumulative adverse influences are also expected to result in
a long-term decline of the Kaiparowits deer herd and probably
will hasten the loss of antelope from East Clark Bench.1 Illegal
The influence of the scenario's impacts on habitat in the
Dixie National Forest and on the benchlands just east of the
Escalante River could render them less suitable or unsuitable for
reintroduction of elk and antelope, now under consideration by
the Utah Division of.Wildlife Resources.
242
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TABLE 6-36: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
u>
Impact Category
Class A
Class B
Class C
Unknown
1975-1980
Increased recreational
use of high plateaus
Illegal shooting
Damage and harassment
associated with ORV's
in desert areas
Habitat fragmentation,
land use, road kill
and harrassment
(urban influence)
Direct habitat
removal
Grazing losses
1980-1990
Increased recreational
use of high plateaus
Illegal shooting
Damage and harassment
associated with ORV's
in desert areas
Urban influence
Altered springs and
seep discharge
Direct habitat
removal
Grazing losses
"Criteria" air pollu-
tant emissions
Local eutrophication
of Escalante River by
municipal sewage
discharge
Addition of mercury
and other trace ele-
ments to Lake Powell
1990-2000
Increased recreational
use of high plateaus
Damage and harassment
associated with ORV's
in desert areas
Urban influence
Altered springs and
seep discharge
Direct habitat
removal
Grazing losses
"Criteria" air pollu-
tant emissions
Addition of trace
elements to Lake
Powell
ORV = off-road vehicle
-------
TABLE 6-37: FORECAST OF STATUS OF SELECTED SPECIESa
Omm* Species
Mule Deer
Antelope
Bighorn cheep
Buffalo
turkey
Pheasant, Quail.
Chukar
Brook and rainbow
trout (Aquarius
Plateau and
Boulder Mountain)
Rare or Endangered
Specie!
Peregrine falcon
(occasional)
Indicators of
Attrition of
Rente Habitate
Mountain Lion
Dipper
19BO
Slight aggravation of present
decline in Kaiparowit* Plateau
herd unit due to poaching.
Severe decline and pOMible loee
of East Clark Bench herd.
POMible increase in numbers if
Circle Cliff* Introduction ie
Potential lonee from illegal
•hooting .
Little. changet mortality from
road-kill will be insufficient
to reduce reproductive potential.
Slight reduction due to increaeed
hunting presiure.
Decline of naturally reproducing
populations of high plateaue.
Potential lo«» of individual!
from illegal ahooting.
Slight to moderate decline
through legal and Illegal
hunting.
Little change.
1990
Continued low numbers on Xaiparowite
Plateau due to combined influence of
poaching, road kills. Slight decline
in Boulder Mountain herd unit from
increased access, poaching* habitat
fragmentation.
Loss of East Clark Bench herd, other
population! essentially unaffected.
Redistribution of sheep away from take
Powell into side canyons. Increase in
continued.
Continued illegal shooting pressure.
If not controlled, could result in
overall decline in Henry Mtns. herd.
slight to moderate increase due to
forestry practices*
Possible new local populations near
water line surge ponds, if adequate
cover nearby, probably balanced by
hunting, for overall downtrend.
Probable elimination of many naturally
reproducing lake populations! overall
decline unless stocking rate increased.
potential loal of individual! fron
shooting
Continued decline resulting in rang*
contractions into the moat inaccessible
and rugged areas.
Decline in numben along stream-
course! used aa access by hikers, or
followed by trails.
2000
Probable stabilisation of both
Kaiparowit! and Boulder Mountain
populations.
Ho further change.
Probable stabilization of dis-
tribution patterns) possible
numbers through natural repro-
duction as unexploited habitat
is filled.
Probable stabilization with
cessation of construction
activities.
Stabilization or continued
slight uptrend related to
forest management.
Continued downtrend.
Continued decline, possibly
worsened by habitat deterioration
due to natural drying and erosion
if lakashores are not protected.
Bo further change.
Reduction of mountain lion
to Email numbers occupying
restricted ranges in the
Circle Cliffs, Fiftymile
Mountain, perhaps other rugged
areas.
May become very infrequent or
absent from popular hiking,
fishing areas.
*ln this table. It has been assumed that natural population regulators such as disease, variations in forage production.' and drought.
remain roughly constant, forecast! reflect scenario impacts alone.
-------
shooting could, over the long-term, cause declines in populations
of the larger birds of prey. Aquatic ecosystems in the Dixie
National Forest may also be locally degraded unless access is
controlled; this stress, coupled with heavy fishing pressure,
will have a severe impact on resident reproducing trout popula-
tions.
With the introduction of the energy facilities and projected
population increase of approximately 20,000 people, some long-
term alterations of vegetation may occur on a local scale.
Although many of the immediate and direct impacts of construction
activity and facility siting will probably have only short-term
effects, other impacts may have more lasting effects. Some plant
communities will be disrupted by immediate stresses and will
undergo plant replacement or succession. Succession is not well
understood in desert plant communities, perhaps because of the
very long time required for change.1 A series of successional
plant community stages will probably occur on those sites directly
disrupted by energy development and damaged by ORV use and subse-
quent erosion, and their return to a final or climax stage of
development may take many years.^
One potential long-term effect from energy development on
future ecological systems may come from eventual accumulation of
toxic elements emitted from the power plants and entering the
aquatic food chain in Lake Powell. However, incomplete under-
standing of the dynamics of the movements of mercury into and
through the ecosystem make it difficult to predict the potential
concentration in fish, although some studies indicate potentially
significant increases. Also, the degradation of dikes enclosing
the waste materials deposited in evaporation ponds may allow
release of toxic compounds which will eventually enter the
biological components of the ecological system.
Opening the area by providing easier access will be con-
sidered a benefit by some groups and a detriment by others. The
wilderness character of the area will be largely lost; however,
larger numbers of people will have access to the recreational and
scenic benefits of the area.
On dune sands in Idaho, a situation somewhat analogous to a
desert, Chadwick, H.W., and P.D. Dalke. "Plant Succession on
Dune Sands in Fremont County, Idaho." Ecology, Vol. 46 (Autumn
1965), pp. 765-80, recognized five stages of succession: Stage 1
lasting about 30 years; Stage 2 lasting 20-70 years; Stage 3
lasting 50-70 years; and Stage 4 lasting 700-900 years before the
final or climax stage becomes dominant.
2
Whitfield, C.J., and H.L. Anderson. "Secondary Succession
in the Desert Plains Grassland." Ecology, Vol. 19 (April 1938),
pp. 171-80.
245
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6.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE
A major benefit resulting from the hypothetical energy
development called for in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will
be the production of 6,000 megawatts-electric of electricity.
This benefit will accrue more to people outside than inside the
areas. Locally, the principal benefits will be economic, including
substantial increases in per-capita income, retail and wholesale
trade, and secondary economic development. In addition, Kane and
Garfield Counties will receive substantial new tax revenues, and
the state of Utah will benefit noticeably. These benefits will
support the expansion of public services and professional staffs
presently needed in southern Utah. Some persons, both locals and
tourists, will consider new roads in previously inaccessible
areas to be a benefit.
Many of the major negative impacts that can be anticipated
will result either directly or indirectly from the expected 300-
percent population increase for southern Utah by 1990. Some
local governments will be hard-pressed initially to provide the
services required. Existing school, housing, health, and public
safety services will be initially overwhelmed by the influx of
workers and their families. Local governments in the area are
generally not well-equipped to respond to the needs of this new
population. However, planning capabilities are being upgraded,
and the adequacy of existing controls, such as zoning, is now
being assessed. These problems are surmountable, and the eco-
nomic impacts of population increases will be predominately
positive by 1990. With the exception of Page, long-term revenues
produced by the development will be more than adequate to pay for
the necessary services and the required additions to the profes-
sional staffs of local governments.1 Since it will not share in
the direct tax revenues produced by the energy facilities, Page
will subsidize services to those workers and their families who
choose to live there.
Newcomers will outnumber natives very early during the
development. As indicated in the social and cultural impacts
discussion above, the lifestyles of the natives and newcomers are
likely to be quite different. While small in terms of numbers,
at least some of the natives will consider the resultant polit-
ical and social changes detrimental.
There might be problems due to a lag between the need to
provide services and receipt of income to provide. However, this
problem is lessened by Utah's law permitting local governments to
require the prepayment of taxes.
246
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Air quality impacts of energy development in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante area will result from both the power plant and popula-
tion increases. The Escalante plant may produce air impacts
which will exceed significant deterioration standards for a Class
II area. Visibility will also be adversely affected, especially
during winter stagnation periods. Given the extensive recre-
ational use of the area, particularly in the numerous nearby
national parks and forests, this impact must be considered sig-
nificant.
Power plant scrubbers are rated as 80-percent efficient in
removing sulfur dioxide (802)• Scrubbers with 95-percent effi-
ciency would result in no violation of Class II S02 standards. .
Elimination of scrubbers would result in significant violations
of anticipated nondegradation air quality standards and would
violate short-term (3-hour and 24-hour) primary and secondary air
quality standards.
Water quality impacts will be minimized by the use of
holding ponds. However, downstream users are likely to be
affected by the increased total dissolved solids content of
surface water resulting from the consumptive use of 84,000 acre-
feet of surface water by the energy facilities. The new town and
urban population require 12,000 acre-feet per year of ground-
water. The total water resources of the Upper Colorado are
already allocated, and the use of water for energy development
will eventually mean that water will not be available for other
uses. Water quality may also diminish from pond leakage, ero-
sion, and inadequate sewage treatment facilities.
Potential water quality problems affecting aquatic life
include excessive plankton growth from inadequately treated
municipal sewage, stream flow reductions that restrict aquatic
and riparian habitat, and additions of mercury from the power
plants into the Lake Powell ecosystem. Current mercury concen-
trations in some predatory fish exceed the Food and Drug Adminis-
tration standards, and additional mercury will contribute to this
problem. Terrestrial animal populations are most likely to be
affected from the combined disturbances of increased habitat
fragmentation, legal and illegal hunting, and other recreational
activities.
247
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CHAPTER 7
THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The hypothetical energy development proposed in the Navajo/
Farmington scenario consists of coal mining, electrical power
generation, Lurgi and Synthane high-Btu (British thermal unit)
gasification, and Synthoil liquefaction.1 The area within which
development is to take place is shown in Figure 7-1; Figure 7-2
shows the location of specific facilities. Electricity gener-
ated in the area will be transported via extra-high voltage
transmission lines to demand centers in Arizona, California, and
New Mexico. The synthetic gas will be fed into existing pipe-
line networks in the Southwest, and the synthetic liquids will
be pipelined to western and/or midwestern refineries. These
facilities will be constructed between 1977 and 2000. The con-
struction timetable and the technologies to be deployed are
shown in Table 7-1.
In addition to this hypothetical energy development, the
Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will become operational during
the late 1970's. Because of its size, this development is also
taken into account when impacts are analyzed.
Two distinctive cultures are found in the Navajo/Farmington
area: the Indian culture centered on the Navajo Reservation,
and the predominantly non-Indian culture centered in Farmington.
A similar division exists in the economy of the area.
San Juan County's non-Indian economy is diversified among
several sectors of activity. Wholesale and retail trade, gov-
ernment, transportation and communications, mining, manufacturing.
While this hypothetical development may parallel develop-
ment proposed by the Public Service Company of New Mexico, Utah
International, Inc., Western Gasification Company, Consolidation
Coal Company, El Paso Natural Gas Company and others, it must be
stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical.
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the
assessment of a particular combination of technologies and
existing conditions.
248
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COLORADO
Topography
Above 9000 feet
8000-9000 feet
7000-80CO feat
6000-7000 feet
j 5000-6000 feet
' Below 5000 feet
FIGURE 7-1: THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO AREA
249
-------
COLORADO
FIGURE 7-2:
THE LOCATION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
IN THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
250
-------
TABLE 7-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES
AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
Resources
Coala (billions of tons)
Resources 2.4
Proved Reserves 1.9
Technologies
Extraction
Four surface area mines of
varying capacity using
draglines
Conversion
One Lurgi coal gasification
plant operating at 73% thermal
efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Claus
.plant HaS removal, wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One 3,000 MWe power plant
consisting of four 750 kwe
turbine generators; 34% plant
efficiency; 80% efficient
limestone scrubbers, 99% efficient
electrostatic precipitator, and
wet forced-draft cooling towers
One' Synthane coal gasification
plant operating at 80% thermal
efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Claus
plant H2S removal, wet
forced-draft cooling towers
'One Synthoil coal liquefaction
plant operating at 92%
thermal efficiency; Claus plant
H2S removal, wet forced-draft
cooling towers
Transportation
Coal
Conveyor belts from mines to
each facility
Gas
One 30-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Two EHV lines
Characteristics
Coal
Heat Content 8,580 Btu's/lb
Moisture 16 %
Volatile Matter 30 %
Fixed Carbon -34 %
Ash 19 %
Sulfur 0.7 %
Facility
Size
7.3 MMtpy
12.2 MMtpy
6.6 MMtpy
12.2 MMtpy
250 MMscfd
1,500 MWe
1,500 MWe
250 MMscfd
100,000 bb I/day
250 MMcf
100,000 bbl/day
765 kV
Completion
Date
1979
1984
1989
1999
1980
1984
1985
1990
2000
1980
2000
1984
Facility
Serviced
Lurgi Plant
Power Plant
Synthane
Synthoil
Lurgi Plant
Oil Well Field
Power Plant
bbl/day = barrels per day
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
EHV = extra-high voltage
HpS = hydrogen sulfide
kv = kilovolts
kWe = kilowatt-electric
MMcf = million cubic feet
MMscfd = million standard cubic
feet per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
MWe = megawatt(s)-electric
1974 Keystone Coal Industry Manual. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1974. p. 477;
proved reserves are calculated as 80 percent of the defined resources. Values
are for strippable coal from the Navajo field.
251
-------
and agriculture are among the principal employers within the
county. The Indian economy is predominantly agricultural.
The county is governed by a three-member board of commis-
sioners and served by a professional manager. In 1975, a Plan-
ning and Research Department was established, primarily to assess
needs arising from new developments within the county. «
Services provided in the unincorporated sections of the
county include police (a sheriff's department), fire (provided
jointly with the state), and highway construction and mainte-
nance. Public health care and public assistance are provided
jointly by the county and state.
There are three incorporated urban areas in the county:
Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield. Basic public services are
provided in all three, and a separate school district serves
each.
Although there are many unresolved questions concerning
relationships between Indians and non-Indians, the applicability
of state laws to Indians, the applicability of Indian laws to
non-Indians, etc., the Navajos and Utes maintain a general sov-
ereignty over their reservation lands. The Navajo Reservation,
on which several energy facilities will be located, is governed
by a Tribal Council.1 Members of the Council are elected from
Chapters into which the Reservation is divided.2 A Chairman of
the Tribal Council is elected at large.
Within the past few years, the Navajos have expanded the
capabilities of the tribal government, largely in direct response
to prospective energy development. For example, the Council is
now served by a professional planning staff, and environmental
and tax commissions have been established.
The reservation is predominantly rural. Shiprock, the only
urban area in the New Mexico portion of the reservation, is
unincorporated and governed by the Tribal Council.
The area to be developed is in the San Juan River Basin.
The San Juan, the only perennial stream in the area, will be the
source of water for the proposed energy facilities. Although
See Price, Monroe E. Law and the American Indian. India-
napolis, Ind.: Bobbs-Merrill, 1973; and Cohen, Felix S., ed.
Statutory Compilation of the Indian Law, Survey. Washington,
B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1940.
2
As established in 1923, the tribal government is basically a
federal system in which the Chapters are the constituent units.
252
-------
there is groundwater in the area, it is limited in quantity and is
generally of poor quality.
Rainfall averages only about 7 inches per year. This limits
the amount and variety of vegetation, and the area contains
mostly desert grasslands and shrubs, in some locations, over-
grazing by Navajo-owned sheep has led to serious soil erosion
and elimination of vegetation.
Air quality in the area is already affected by the San Juan
and Four Corners power plants, refineries, and a variety of
industrial facilities. Blowing dust also affects existing air
quality. Selected descriptive characteristics of the area are
summarized in Table 7-2. In each of the following sections,
additional information is introduced as needed in the analysis
of impacts.
TABLE 7-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
Air Stability
Vegetation
6,000-9,000 feet
6-8 inches annually
Air stagnation during
fall and winter
Sparse grasses and
shrubs with barren
areas, pinyon and
juniper in foothills
Social and Economic
(San Juan County)
Land Ownership
Indian
Federal
State
Private
Population Density
Unemployment
Income
60
30
5
5
%
%
11.2 per square mile
8.2 %
$3,147 per capita annual
11973 data.
'1972 data.
253
-------
7.2 AIR IMPACTS
7.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Air quality in the Navajo/Farmington area is currently
affected by numerous emission sources, the largest of which are
the Four Corners and San Juan Power Plants (Figure 7-1). Concen-
tration measurements of criteria pollutantsl taken in 1974 in the
Four Corners area indicate that 24-hour average particulate
levels exceed both federal and New Mexico standards due to
blowing dust.2 However, measurements taken at the site of the
proposed Western Gasification Company gasification plant3 do not
indicate violations of either particulate or sulfur dioxide (S02)
standards. Based on these measurements, annual average back-
ground levels have been estimated for three pollutants: SO2,
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in forces carbon monoxide, non-methane hydro-
carbons (HC) , nitrogen dioxides, oxidants, particulates, and sulfur
dioxide. Although only non-methane HC are technically covered by the
.standards, the more inclusive term "hydrocarbons" is generally used.
The HC standard serves as a guide for achieving oxidant standards.
2
Utah Engineering Experiment Station. Air Pollution Inves-
tigation in the Vicinity of the Four Corners and San Juan Power
Plants, Progress Report. Salt Lake City, Utah: March 1973, and
amended by letter January 1974. As cited in U.S., Department of
the Interior. Draft Environmental Statement for Proposed Modi-
fication of Four Corners Power Plant and Navaio Mine. Wash-
ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navaio Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.
254
-------
20 ug/m (micrograms per cubic meter); participates, 40 jiq/m3 '
and nitrogen dioxide (N02) i 10 iig/m3.1
B. Meteorological Conditions
The worst dispersion conditions for the Navajo/Farmington
area are associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds
(less than 5-10 miles per hour), unchanging wind direction,
and relatively low mixing depths.2 These conditions are likely
to increase concentrations of pollutants from both ground-level
and elevated sources.3 since worst-case conditions differ at
each site, predicted annual average pollutant levels vary among
sites, even if the pollutant sources are identical. Meteoro-
logical conditions in the area are generally unfavorable for
pollution dispersion more than 40 percent of the time. Hence,
plume impaction and limited mixing of plumes caused by temperature
inversions at plume height can be expected to occur regularly.4
Good dispersion conditions are expected to occur about 28 per-
cent of the time.^
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgement. They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Mea-
surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not
available in the rural areas. However, high-background HC
levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West
and may occur here. Background CO levels are now assumed to be
relatively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the
area are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60
miles. Estimates of longer range visibilities have been made.
For example, the background visibility has been estimated at
70-100 miles, depending on the direction that is viewed. Visi-
bility is reduced when looking across the Four Corners' Plume.
See R. Nichelson, Progress Report, New Mexico Visibility Study.
Santa Fe, N.M.: New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency, n.d.
o
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
3
Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that
emit pollutants close to ground level.
See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.
Ashville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975.
Jordan, R.A. Joint Ambient Air Monitoring Project,
Interim Report. Albuquerque, N.M.: Public Service Company of
New Mexico, September 1973, and amended January 1974. As cited
in U.S., Department of the Interior. Draft Environmental State-
ment for Proposed Modification of Four Corners Power Plant and
Nava-lo Mine. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Off ice, 1975.
255
-------
As at most western sites, the potential for dispersion of
pollutants in the Navajo/Farmington area varies considerably by
season. During spring and summer, strong low-level winds (15-25
miles per hour enhance dispersion potential. During winter
months, dispersion potential is often limited because of persis-
tent high pressure areas near the surface over the Colorado
River Plateau.
7.2.2 Emissions Sources
The primary emissions sources in the Navajo/Farmington
scenario are a power plant, three conversion facilities (Lurgi,
Synthane, and Synthoil), supporting surface mines, and population
increases. Pollution from energy-related population was esti-
mated from available data on average emissions per person in
several western cities.1 Most mine-related pollution originates
from diesel engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides
(NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), and particulates. Although dust
suppression techniques are hypothesized in the scenario, some
additional particulates will come from blasting, coal piles, and
blowing dust.2
The hypothetical power plant in this scenario has four
750 megawatts-electric (MWe) boilers, each with its own stack.3
The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP)
which removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber which
removes 80 percent of the SO2 and 40 percent of the NOx.^ Two
75,000-barrel storage tanks at the plant, with standard floating
roof construction, will each emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.
The power plant and the three coal conversion facilities
are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell in the
tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute
Refer to the Introduction to Part II for identification of
these cities and references to methods used to model urban
meteorological conditions. This scenario models only concen-
trations for Farmington, New Mexico.
2
The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency is investigating this question and will be used
to inform further impact analysis.
Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.3
feet, mass flow rates of 2.6 x 10^ cubic feet per minute, an
exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of
18OOF.
4
These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable esti-
mates of current industrial practices.
256
-------
and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circulating
water has a total dissolved solids content of 10,000 parts per
million. This results in a salt emission rate of 21,200 pounds
per year for each cell.l
Table 7-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants
emitted by each of the four facilities. In all four cases, most
emissions come from the plants rather than the mines. The
largest single contributor to total emissions is the power plant
for all pollutants except HC, in which case the Synthoil plant
has the largest emissions. For all five pollutants, the Syn-
thane plant has the smallest total emissions.
7.2.3 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
Construction of the hypothetical Lurgi gasification plant
will begin in 1977, and the plant will become operational in
1980. Few air quality impacts are associated with the con-
struction phase of this plant or with those coming on-line by
1990 or 2000, although construction processes may increase wind-
blown dust which currently causes periodic violations of 24-hour
ambient particulate standards.
Table 7-4 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by the Lurgi plant and its supporting
surface mine. These pollutants (particulates, S02» NC>2/ and HC)
are regulated by federal and New Mexico state ambient air quality
standards (also shown in Table 7-4). Based on this data, the
typical concentrations associated with the plant or the plant
and mine combination, when added to existing background levels,
will be well below federal and state standards. However, the
peak concentration produced by the plant and mine combination
will violate New Mexico's 24-hour NO2 standard.2
Table 7-4 also lists the Non-Significant Deterioration
(NSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollu-
tants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e.,
The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the
Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16.
2
Potential air impacts are subject to the New Mexico state
permit review system, which does not allow any facility develop-
ment that threatens applicable state standards. If the oper-
ation of a plant will violate state standards, construction can
be halted, and/or the plant may be required to install pollution
control equipment.
257
-------
TABLE 7-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES*
(pounds per hour)
Facilities
Q
Electrical Generation
Mine
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Syn thane
Mine
Plant
Synthoil
Mine
Plant
Particulates
17
5,020
8
434
7
205
10
755
S02
11
9,760
5
469
5
327
7
1,183
NOX
144
18,900
68
2,810
63
1,475
92
5,769
HC
17
524
8
58
7
30
11
1,668
C02
87
1,744
41
375
38
196
56
227
C02 = carbon dioxide
HC = hydrocarbons
NOX = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
a,
'These levels of emissions would violate several New Mexico State New
Source Performance Standards.
The Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants are 250 million standard
cubic feet per day facilities with three emissions stacks at each
plant. The Synthoil plant produces 100,000 barrels per day and has
24 stacks. A detailed description of each plant is contained in the
Energy Resource Development Systems description to be published as a
separate report in 1977.
Assuming 99-percent electrostatic precipitators efficiency and 80
percent S02 scrubber efficiency. The S02 scrubber is also assumed to
remove 40 percent of oxides of nitrogen.
areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air
standards).1 "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest
Non-Significant Deterioration standards apply only to
particulates and sulfur dioxide*,
258
-------
TABLE 7-4:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM LURGI PLANT AND MINE
(micro-grains per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
30 -day
7 -day.
24-hour
S02
Annual
24 -hour
3 -hour
Annual
24 -hour
HCd
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
10
10
unknown
Typical
1.8
1.2
5.8
16
0.2
Peak
Plant
0.2
0.4
2.6
4.8
0.7
6.5
35
0.5
32
4.0
Plant
and Mine
0.6
1.1
11
20
0.7
16
62
4.8
165
35
Farmington
0
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.9
0.2
3.1
0.1
Standards
Ambient
Primary
75
•
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
New Mexico
60
90
110
150
44
220
79
158
120
Non-Significant Deterioration
*
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
to
Ui
HC = Hydrocarbons
NOj = Nitrogen Dioxide
SO2 = Sulfur Dioxide
are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Lurgi gasification facility and mine. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations
from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual S02 levels. Concentrations
over Farmington are largely attributable to the plant.
^''Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per
year. Non-Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants that can be added to areas of
relatively clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
CAll NOx from plant sources is assumed to be converted to NOj. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
areas, such as national parks and forests.1 Peak concentrations
attributable to the Lurgi Plant or the plant and mine combination
do not exceed Class II allowable increments. However, the short-
term (24-hour or less) Class I increments for both particulates
and SO2 are exceeded.
Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have to
be located a sufficient distance from any Class I area to allow
dilution of emissions by atmospheric mixing to required levels
prior to their reaching such areas. The distance required for
this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission
controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes a
"buffer zone" around Class I areas.2 Current Environmental-
Protection Agency (EPA) Regulations would require a minimum
buffer zone of 10 miles between the Lurgi plant and a Class I
area boundary.3 No proposed Class I areas are within 10 miles
of the plant site, but the Chaco Canyon National Monument, a
potential Class I area/ is about 20 miles to the southeast
(Figure 7-3).
2. Pollution from the Town
The population of Farmington is expected to increase from
27,300 (1975) to 30,800 by 1980.4 This population increase will
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all Non-Significant Deterioration areas Class II and established
a process requiring petitions and public hearings for redesig-
nating areas Class I or Class II. A Class II designation is for
areas which have moderate, well-controlled energy or industrial
development and permits less deterioration than that allowed by
federal secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deteri-
oration to the level of secondary standards.
2
Analysis of buffer zone requirements is based on the
potential of many western areas to become Class I, either by
redesignation or by Congressional requirement. Estimated sizes
of buffer zones are based on dispersion modeling.
Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not
be symmetrical. This is largely attributable to the wind-
rose; that is, to the pattern and strength of areal winds which
vary by location and season. Hence, the direction which Non-
Significant Deterioration areas are located from energy facil-
ities will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.
4
See Section 7.4.3.
260
-------
COLORADO
•
'•)
5
miles
10
15
•.
SChaco Canyon National Monument
• •• j
FIGURE 7-3: AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE
NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO
261
-------
contribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely
to urban sources. Table 7-5 shows predicted 1980 concentrations
of the five criteria pollutants in the center of town and at a
point 3 miles from the center of town.
When concentrations from urban sources are added to back-
ground levels and concentrations from the Lurgi Plant (given in
Table 7-4), annual particulate levels exceed the federal secon-
dary standard, and 3-hour HC levels exceed the federal and New
Mexico standards.1 Moreover, concentrations of particulates
(30-day, 7-day, and 24-hour), S02 (annual), and NO2 (annual and
24-hour) approach the most restrictive federal or state stan-
dard.
B. Impacts to 1990
1« Pollution from Facilities
Two new facilities are hypothesized to be constructed by
1990 in the Navajo/Farmington area. A power plant will become
operational in 1985, and a Synthane gasification plant will
become operational in 1990. Tables 7-6 and 7-7 summarize typ-
ical and peak concentrations of the five criteria pollutants
after both plants become operational. Peak concentrations from
both plants will violate New Mexico's ambient air standard for
24-hour N02 levels. No other federal or state ambient standard
will be violated by these, facilities and their associated
mines.2
These facilities do exceed several allowable increments for
NSD. Impacts from the power plant appear the most severe; both
typical and peak concentrations will exceed some NSD increments.
Class I and Class II 24-hour particulate levels will be exceeded
by the peak concentrations from the plant. Peak concentrations
from the plant will also exceed Class I increments for all three
SC-2 averaging times, and typical concentrations will exceed the
24-hour SO2 level. Peak concentrations from the Synthane plant
Hydrocarbon standards are violated regularly in most
urban areas.
2
interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal
because they have been (hypothetically) sited 6 miles apart. If
the wind blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes will
interact. However, the resulting concentrations will be less
than those produced by either plant and mine combination when
the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine con-
centrations) . The Lurgi plant is too far away to affect peak
concentrations. If the plants were closer, the probability of
interactions would increase. Sensitivity analysis of this
siting consideration will be done during the remainder of the study.
262
-------
TABLE 7-5: POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT FARMINGTON
to
CTi
CO
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
30-day
7-day
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
N02C
Annual
24-hour
HCd
3 -hour
CO 2
8 -hour
1-hour
Concentrations
Background
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
10
10
Unknown
Unknown
Mid-Town Point
1980
27
42
62
92
14
43
84
40
136
750
2,508
4,110
1990
30
46
69
102
16
54
96
48
163
871
2,990
4,990
2000
32
50
74
109
16
54
9S
51
173
900
3,190
5,730
Rural Point
1980
4
42
62
92
2
48
84
6
136
750
2,508
4,110
1990
6
46
69
102
3
54
96
8
163
871
2,990
4,900
2000
6
50
74
109
3
54
96
10
173
900
3,190
5,730
Standards
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
40,000
New Mexico
90
110
44
220
79
158
120
15,000
S02 = Sulfur Dioxide
CO2 = Carbon Monoxide
HC = Hydrocarbons
N02 = Nitrogen Dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concentrations are taken from
Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the center of town.
"Primary and secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the public health and
welfare, respectively.
°It is assumed that 50 percent of NOX from urban sources is converted to NO9. Refer to the introduction to
Part II.
d
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 7~6j
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM POWER PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
30- day
7- day
24- hour
S02 "'
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
24-hour
F.Cd
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background
40
20
10
Unknown
Typical
14
9
22
118
Peak
Plant
3
5.3
33.4
60
3.3
65
454
6.5
126
j 46
Plant
and Mine
3
5.3
50.4
91
3.3
84
459
6.S
388
78
Farmington
.3
.7
4.2
7.7
0.3
8.3
18
0.6
16
Standards13
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
New Mexico
60
90
110
150
44
220
79
158
120
Non-significant Deterioration.
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
NJ
HC = Hydrocarbons
NO2 = Nitrogen Dioxide
SO2 = Sulfur Dioxide
sThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant and mine. Annual average "background levels are
considered to be the best estimates of shore-terra background levels. Concentrations over Farmington are largely attributable to
"Primary and Secondary" refers to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded ir.ore than once per year. Non-Signiificant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
cxt is assumed that all NOX from plant sources is converted to NOj- Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
"^The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 7-7: POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHANE GASIFICATION PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
30- day
7- day
24- hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Annual
I 24-hour
| a
3-hour
Concentrations3
Background
40
20
10
Unknown
Typical
1.7
2.1
7.7
14.0
2.4
Peak
Plant
0.1
0.2
1.2
2.2
0.5
5.0
34.0
0.4
15.0
3.0
Plant
and Mine
0.3
0.5
8.3
15.0
0.7
18.0
40.0
2.2
155.0
45.0
Farmington
0
0
0.1
0.3
0
0.5
0.7
0
1.4
0.1
Standards13
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
New Mexico
60
90
110
150
44
220
79
158
120
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
1
to
cr>
ui
HC = Hydrocarbons
NOj = Nitrogen Dioxide
SO2 = Sulfur Dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthane gasification plant and mine. Annual average
backaround levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations from
the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SO, levels. Concentrations over Farmington
are largely attributable to the plant.
^"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards ate the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added"to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all KOX from plant sources is converted to KO2- Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
dThe 3-hour KC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
and associated mine will also violate at least one Class I
standard for participates and S02.
These NSD violations would require buffer zones between
each plant and any Class I area. Current, EPA regulations would
require the largest buffer zone (58 miles) for the power plant.
The Chaco Canyon National Monument, a potential Class I area, is
only 20 miles away. If it would be redesignated Class I, NSD
requirements would prohibit the power plant from operating,
given these emission levels. The buffer zone for the Synthane
plant is less than 5 miles.
2. Pollution from the Town
Farmington's predicted population increase to 37,100 by
1990 will cause urban pollutant concentrations to reach the
levels shown in Table 7-5. Combined with background levels, the
1990 concentrations will violate the federal secondary standard
for annual particulate levels and New Mexico's 24-hour NC-2 and
3-hour HC standards. (As discussed earlier, the particulate and
HC standards will have been violated by 1980.) These concen-
trations also approach either a federal secondary or New Mexico
standard for 30-day, 7-day, and 24-hour particulate levels and
annual S02 levels. The HC violation, which will exceed New
Mexico's standard by a factor of seven, appears the most severe
because it increases the likelihood of oxidant formation and
photochemical smog.
C. Impacts to 2000
1. Pollution from Facilities
One new facility, a Synthoil liquefaction plant, will
become operational between 1990 and 2000. Table 7-8 lists
typical plant concentrations, peak plant concentrations, and
peak combined concentrations from the plant and surface mine.
These data show that the only violation from the Synthoil facil-
ities (plant or plant/mine combination) will be HC emission
levels, which are more than 175 times greater than New Mexico's
s tandard.1
Peak concentrations from the Synthoil plant will exceed
Class I NDS increments for 24-hour particulate and all three
SC>2 increments. In addition, typical concentrations from the
Interactions between the new Synthoil plant and the Lurgi,
electrical generation, and Synthane plants will increase annual
peak concentrations near the power plant. However, these
increases will be very small (less than 1 microgram for sulfur
dioxide and nitrogen oxides) and thus will not violate any standards.
266
-------
TABLE 7-8:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHOIL LIQUEFACTION PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
30-day
7-day
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
NO 2°
Annual
24-hour
HCd
= 3 -hour
Concentrations8
Background
40
20
10
Unknown
Typical
8
12
51 .
52
326
Peak
Plant
1.5
2.6
ff. 8
16
3.2
30
136
7.3
85
21,500
Plant
and Mine
1.6
2.8
9.4
17
3.3
30
136
7.9
124
21,500
Fanuington
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.4
0.3
2.2
2.6
1.2
10
7.5
Standards
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150.
1,300
100
160
New Mexico
60
150
44
220
79
158
120
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
1
HC = Hydrocarbons
NO2 = Nitrogen Dioxide
S02 = Sulfur Dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthoil Liquefaction Plant and mine. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations
from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SO2 levels. Concentrations
over Farmington are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, resoec-
tively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to Be exceeded more than once per year. Non-
Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean
air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all NOX' from plant sources is converted to NC>2. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
<*The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
plant will exceed the 24-hour S02 increment. These concentrations
would require a 16-mile buffer zone between the plant and any
Class I area.
2. Pollution from the Town
Farmington's population will increase to 40,600 by the year
2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated
with this growth (Table 7-5). These increases will exceed two
additional ambient standards beyond those violated by population
increases in 1990 (New Mexico's 30-day and 7-day particulate
standards). Further, 24-hour particulate levels will be virtu-
ally equal to federal secondary standards.
7.2.4 Other Ai"r Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been
made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy develop-
ment may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25
years. These categories of potential impacts are sulfates,
oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opac-
ity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging
and icing.l
A. Sulfates
Very little is known about sulfate concentrations likely to
result from western energy development. However, one study
suggests that for oil shale retorting, peak conversion rates of
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitro-
genous Compounds in the Environment, U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1973.
268
-------
SO2 to sulfates in plumes is less than 1 percent.1 Applying this
ratio to plants in the Navajo scenario results in peak sulfate
concentrations of less than 1 yg/m3. This level is well below
EPA's suggested danger point of 12 yg/m3for a 24-hour average.2
B. Oxidants
Oxidants (including such compounds as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) are a
criteria pollutant which can be emitted from sources or formed
in the atmosphere. For example, oxidants can be formed when hydro-
carbons combine with oxides of nitrogen. Present knowledge of the
conversion processes that form oxidants does not allow predic-
tions of concentrations from power or liquefaction plants.
However, the relatively low peak HC concentration from the power
plant and its associated mine (78 vig/m3} suggests that these
sources, alone, will not create an oxidant problem. More
likely, any oxidant problem would result from the combination
of background HC and the high levels of N02 emitted in the power
plant plume. Since background HC levels are unknown, the extent
of this problem has not been predicted.
In only one of several cases investigated3 did coal gasifi-
cation plant emissions result in oxidant levels that exceeded
federal standards. Since these cases are not comparable to the
Lurgi and Synthane facilities hypothesized in this scenario,
levels of oxidants formed from the combination of HC and N02
were not predicted. However, HC concentrations in this scenario
are much smaller than those found in the one case in which
standards were violated. Since the NC>2 levels are about equal,
violation of oxidant concentrations from the gasification facil-
ities in this scenario are not expected. This is not the case
Nordsieck, R., et al. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental
Research and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975. This
study assumed that sulfur dioxide (S02) in the plumes was con-
verted to sulfate at the rate of 1 percent per hour independent
of humidity, clouds, or photochemically related reaction inten-
sity. Reported results indicate peak sulfate levels ranging
from 0.1 to 1.6 percent of the corresponding peak SO2 levels
from oil shale retorting. Recent work in Scandinavia suggests
that acid-forming sulfates arriving in Norway are complex
ammonium sulfates formed by a catalytic and/or photochemical
process which varies with the season.
3
Nordieck, et al. Reactive Air Pollutants.
269
-------
for the Synthoil plant, which produces peak HC concentrations
about 150 times greater than the federal standard. Since NO2
is emitted in the plume, violation of oxidant standards may
result.
HC concentrations over Farmington, which are five times
higher than the federal standard, are also likely to create an
oxidant problem. Since oxidant formation may occur relatively
slowly (i»e, one or more hours), this problem will be less when
wind conditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates (those less than 3 microns in diameter) are
primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the plants.1 Cur-
ent information suggests that particulate emissions controlled
by ESP have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns, and uncon-
trolled particulates have a mean diameter of about 10 microns.2
In general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the smaller
the mean diameter of the particles emitted by plant stacks, The
high efficiency ESP's (99-percent removal) in this scenario
reduce coarse particulate (+3 microns in diameter) emissions to
the point that an estimated 50 percent (by weight) of the total
particulate emissions are fine particulates. This percentage
applies to the power plant and the Lurgi and Synthane gasifi-
cation processes. However, since only half of the particulate
emissions from the Synthoil plant are controlled, only about
25 percent of its emissions will be fine particulates. Health
effects from fine particulates are discussed in Section 12.6.
D. Long-Range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-1.0 microns in
diameter) is that they reduce long-range visibility. Particu-
lates suspended in the atmosphere scatter light, which reduces
the contrast between an object and its background. As distance
increases, the contrast level eventually falls below that
required by the human eye to distinguish the object from the
background. Estimates of visual ranges for this scenario are
Fine particulates produced by atmospheric chemical reac-
tions take long enough to form so they occur long distances
from the plants.
2
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066' for Southern
California Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Randian Corporation,
1974.
270
-------
based on empirical relationships between visual distance and
fine particulate concentrations.1
Visibility in the region of this scenario averages about
60 miles and may exceed 100 miles. The greatest reduction in
average visibility will occur south of Farmington due to concen-
trations from sulfate and particulate emissions. As the facil-
ities in this scenario become operational, average visibility
will decrease to 59 miles by 1985, 57 miles by 1990, and 56
miles by 2000. Air stagnation episodes will cause substantially
greater short-term reductions.
E. Plume Opacity
Fine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although ESP's will remove enough
particulates for power plants to meet emission standards, stack
plumes will still exceed the 20-percent opacity standard.2
Thus, plumes would probably be visible at the stack exit and
some distance downwind. Although no opacity standards exist for
gasification or liquefaction plants, the Lurgiy Synthane, and
Synthoil plants all have more than one stack which would produce
plumes with greater than 20-percent opacity.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
The mist emitted from cooling towers has a high salt con-
tent and will deposit salts downwind of the towers. Estimated
salt deposition rates for the four facilities in this scenario
are shown in Table 7-9. These rates are relatively low and
decrease rapidly beyond .87 mile. Some interaction of salt
deposition from the various plants will occur. For example, the
area midway between the power and Synthane plants will receive
a cumulative total of 5.4 pounds per acre per year, and the area
midway between the Lurgi and Synthoil plants will receive an
Charlson, R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the
Generality of Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concen-
tration and Light Scatter." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 2
(September 1968), pp. 455-464. Since the model is designed for
urban areas, its use in rural areas yields results that are only
approximate.
2
The Federal New Source Performance Standard for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of
particulates per million British thermal unit's heat input. The
plume opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly
met as the particulate emissions standard because it would
require removal of 99.9 percent of all plume particulates, which
would increase electrostatic precipitator costs.
271
-------
TABLE 7-9: SALT DEPOSITION RATES
Plant
Lurgi Gasification
Power Plant
Synthane Gasification
Synthoil Liquefaction
3.
Average Salt Deposition Rate
(pounds per acre per year)
0-.87
mile*5
3.9
23
2.1
5.6
.87-7.5
miles
0.8
4.9
0.5
1.2
7.5-23
miles
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.2
Calculation assumed a wind speed equal to the annual
average for Farmington and included the effects of
humidity on evaporation.
Diameter of circles bounding the area subject to the
salt deposition rate.
average of about 2 pounds per acre per year. The effect of salt
on the area will depend on soil conditions, rainfall, and
existing vegetation.
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
Fogging and icing potentials in the Farmington area are
generally low. Relative humidities above 95 percent occur only
three or four times per year, and heavy fog (visibility reduc-
tions to .25 mile or less) occurs on the average about 8 days
per year. Hence, cooling towers are likely to induce only
slight increases in fog. Similarly, Farmington experiences
freezing temperatures less than 20 percent of the year. Coupled
with the relatively low humidities in the area, cooling towers
will only slightly increase ice accumulations.
7.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
A. Air Quality
Four new facilities are projected for the Navajo/Farmington
scenario by the year 2000. The only federal ambient standard
violated by these facilities is HC, which will be greatly
exceeded by the Synthoil plant. New Mexico's 24-hour N02 stan-
dard will be violated by the Lurgi, electrical generation, and
Synthane plants.
Each of the facilities will violate several NSD allowable
increments. Peak concentrations from the power plant will
272
-------
exceed Class II increments for 24-hour particulates and all
Class I SO2 increments. In addition, average concentrations
from the plant will violate one short-term S02 increment. Peak
concentrations from the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants
will violate Class I increments for 24-hour particulates and at
least two of the SO2 increments. Because of these violations,
each of the facilities will require buffer zones. The largest
is required for the power plant (58 miles), followed by Synthoil
(16 miles), Lurgi (10 miles), and Synthane (5 miles).
Population increases in Farmington will add to and create
pollution problems. Current violations of annual particulate
and HC levels will be exacerbated by increased concentrations
due to urban sources. By 1990, New Mexico's 24-hour NO2 stan-
dard will be violated, and by 2000, New Mexico's 30-day and
7-day particulate standards will be violated.
Several other categories of air impacts have received only
preliminary attention. Our information to date suggests that
oxidant and fine particulate problems are likely to emerge,
largely owing to emissions from the Synthoil plant. Plumes from
the stacks at all facilities will be visible and, in the case of
the power plant, may exceed the 20-percent opacity standard.
Average long-range visibility will be reduced from 60 miles to
about 56 miles by the year 2000.
B. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plant would vary if
emission control systems with other efficiencies were used. For
example, Table 7-10 gives SO2 pollution concentrations which
would result if the plant used only enough control to meet most New
TABLE 7-10;
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL EMISSION CONTROLS
(micrograms per cubic meter)
S02
Averaging
Time
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Concentration
13
260
1,816
S tandards
Primary
80
365
Secondary
1,300
New Mexico
44
220
S02 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are maximum concentrations which assume 20-percent S02
removal, which would meet the federal New Source Performance Stan-
dard of 1.2 pounds of S02 per million Btu's heat input.
273
-------
Source Performance Standards; that is, if the plant removed only
20 percent of the S02 rather than the 80 percent currently hypo-
thesized in this scenario.1 These data show that resulting
concentrations would violate either federal or New Mexico stan-
dards for each averaging time.
To meet all NSD Class II increments, alternatives are for
the plants to increase the efficiency of emission controls or to
reduce total plant capacity. Table 7-11 shows that 70-percent
S02 removal and 99.5-percent particulate removal would be
required to meet all allowable Class II increments.2 Alterna-
tively, the plant could meet Class II requirements by reducing
capacity to 2,500 MWe.3
C. Data Availability
Availability and quality of data have limited the estima-
tion of long-range visibility, plume opacity, oxidant formation,
sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of trace materials in
this chapter. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of areawide pollutant disper-
sion in the San Juan Basin by monitoring currently
being conducted under the auspices of the EPA.
2. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation, gasification, and liquefaction.
This includes the effect of pollutants on visibility.
3. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals for alternative conversion
processes would improve estimates of fallout and
rainout from plumes.
These efficiencies would probably not meet the NSPS opacit'
standard. NSPS limit pollution emissions from stationary sources.
Different regulations apply to different sources. NSPS do not
exist for gasification and liquefaction plants. The Lurgi,
Synthane, and Synthoil plants meet all Class II increments in
this scenario.
2
Seventy-percent sulfur dioxide removal is technologically
feasible and 99.,5-percent particulate removal appears feasible.
More attention will be paid to technological feasibility of
highly efficient control systems during the remainder of the
project.
This projection assumes concentrations are directly pro-
portional to megawatt output.
274
-------
TABLE 7-11: ALTERNATIVES FOR MEETING CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
S02
Annual
2 4 -hour
3 -hour
Particulates
Annual
2 4 -hour
Required Emission
Removal (%)
10
70
70
96.3
99.5
Plant Capacity
(MWe)
>3,000
>3,000
>3,000
>3,000
2,500
MWe = megawatts-electric
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
> = is greater than
7.3 WATER IMPACTS
7.3.1 Introduction
Energy resource development facilities in the Navajo/
Farmington scenario are sited in the San Juan River Basin, a
subbasin of the Colorado River. The major water source for this
development is the San Juan River (see Figure 7-4). The New
Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin is arid, and water supplies
are limited. Within most of the basin, annual rainfall is
generally 10 inches or less, and snowfall is approximately 24
inches.
This section identifies the sources and uses of water
required for energy development, the residuals that will be pro-
duced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are
likely to result.
7.3.2 Existing Conditions
A. Groundwater
The aquifers of greatest significance to the scenario area
are;l and alluvial aquifer system along the San Juan River and
Chaco Wash and their tributaries; a shallow bedrock sandstone
aquifer in the Pictured Cliffs Formation; and a deep bedrock
sandstone aquifer in the Morrison Formation.
The entire New Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin was
declared an underground basin in July 1976 by the State Engineer.
Uses of the basin are subject to regulation as an aquifer of
significance to water supply.
275
-------
COLORADO
^
°
FIGURE 7-4:
SURFACE WATER FEATURES AND WATER IMPACTS AT
NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
276
-------
Recharge of alluvial aquifers depends on stream flow;
therefore, when associated with intermittent streams, alluvial
aquxfers are unreliable as supply sources for large water users.
However, these aquifers are usually satisfactory as water
sources for livestock and domestic purposes.
Water quality in the alluvial aquifer associated with Chaco
Wash is relatively poor (contains up to 3,000 milligrams per
liter ImgA] of total dissolved solids [TDS] . Water quality in
the alluvial aquifer of the San Juan River is probably somewhat
better because the aquifer is recharged by a perennial rather
than an intermittent stream.
The Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer is about 100 feet
thick and lies about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal
seam. Its yield is low (generally about 10 gallons per minute),
and the water is of poor quality. The TDS content is usually
above 1,000 mg/& and ranges as high as 75,000 mg/Jl.l Recharge to
the aquifer is estimated to be about 200 acre-feet per year
(acre-ft/yr).
The Morrison sandstone aquifer is about 900 feet thick and,
in the scenario area, occurs at a depth of about 5,000 feet.
Little is known about the productivity and water quality of this
aquifer.
B. Surface Water
All the southern tributaries of the San Juan River, including
Chaco Wash and its tributaries, are ephemeral. Approximately
88 percent of the average annual water supply in the basin
results from flow from the Colorado portion of the drainage
basin.2
Forty-nine water samples from the Pictured Cliffs sand-
stone aquifer yielded an average total dissolved solids (TDS)
content of 25,442 milligrams per liter (mg/&). A sample from
the alluvial aquifer of the Chaco River had a TDS content of
2,609 wg/&. U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Recla-
mation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification
Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc.,
New Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake
City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976,
pp. 2-37 and 2-38.
2
This inflow from Colorado helps to explain why New Mexico1 s
entitlement is somewhat less than the total available water
leaving the state. The San Juan actually contributes about 17
percent of the flow at Lees Ferry, the point at which Upper
Basin flow is measured.
277
-------
Allocation and control of water resources in the San Juan
River currently involves a number of treaties and basinwide
compacts which include state and federal jurisdictions. These
are the: Colorado River Compact;! Upper Colorado River Basin
Compact;2 Mexico Treaty of 1944;3 and the laws of the State of
New Mexico.
Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact, New Mexico is
entitled to 11.25 percent of the water in the Colorado River to
which Upper Basin states are entitled. However, the actual
amount of water available to the Upper Basin states is not
precisely known. Estimates range from 5.25 million to 7.5
million acre-ft/yr.4 The Department of the Interior's Water for
Energy Management Team estimates that the Upper Basin states
have about 5.8 million acre-ft/yr to divide among themselves.5
This would entitle New Mexico to 652,000 acre-ft/yr. However,
the state of New Mexico claims that it is entitled to at least
703,000 acre-ft/yr, basing its claim on an estimate of 6.3
million acre-ft/yr.6 Making some allowance for reuse, New
Mexico uses an estimated 727,000 acre-ft/yr for planning pur-
poses.7 At present, there is sufficient water available in the
San Juan River to meet any of these estimates.
"'"Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat.
1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.
3000 (1928).
o
Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, 63 Stat. 31
(1949).
Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico
Respecting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana-
Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219
(1945), Treaty Series No. 994.
4
Weatherford, Gary D., and Gordon C. Jacoby. "Impact of
Energy Development on the Law of the Colorado River." Natural
Resources Journal, Vol. 15 (January 1975), pp. 171-213; and
Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat. 1064,
declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000
(1928).
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin. Denver: U.S. Department of the Interior, 1974.
Colorado River Compact of 1922.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation
States' Comments, Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Prob-
lems Facing the Eleven Western States. Denver, Colo.: Bureau
of Reclamation, 1976.
278
-------
TABLE 7-12: FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAN JUAN RIVER
Location
Farmington
Shiprock
Drainage
Area
(square miles)
7,240
12,900
20-Year Average Flow
(1955-75)
1,850 cfs
1,340,000 acre-ft/yr
1,8"48 acre-ft/yr
1,339,000 acre-ft/yr
Maximum
Flow
(cfs)
68,000
(1927)
80,000
(1929)
Minimum
Flow
(cfs)
14
(1939)
8
(1939)
cfs = cubic feet per second
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Surface
Water Supply of the U.S.. 1961-65. Part 9, Colorado River Basin. Vol.
2, Water Supply Paper 1925. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1970.
Baseline surface water flow in the scenario area varies
considerably, and during low flow periods, withdrawals for energy
use could be a substantial percentage of what is available. Flow
characteristics of the San Juan River at Shiprock and Farmington
are shown in Table 7-12. Since 1962, the flow in the San Juan
has been partially regulated by the Navajo Reservoir, which was
built to supply the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) . ,
The maximum and minimum flows of record at Farmington and Ship-
rock occurred before the construction of Navajo Reservoir. Since
that time, variations in flow have not been as extreme. The
reservoir operating conditions are shown in Table 7-13. To meet
TABLE 7-13: OPERATING CONDITIONS FOR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
Maximum storage
Minimum s torage
Normal operating range
pre-NIIPa
Minimum release
September-April
Minimum release
Hay-August
6,085 feet above mean sea level
1,709,000 acre-feet
5,990 feet above mean sea level
600,000 acre-feet
6,025-6,050 feet above mean sea level
450 cubic feet per second
700 cubic feet per second
aThe Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will require 330,000
acre-feet/year of which 226,000 acre-feet/year will be con-
sumed for irrigation and by evaporation and 104,000 acre-
feet/year will be returned.
Model studies indicated that these minimum flows-could not
be met during 3 years using 1949-1965 flow data. Under these
extreme events, discharges to the San Juan River may be less
than 300 cubic feet per second to maintain minimum storage
in the reservoir.
279
-------
TABLE 7-14:
PRESENT AND PROJECTED WATER ALLOCATIONS
FOR THE SAN JUAN RIVER
DEPLETIONS (Nominal-at-site)
(thousands of acre-f^et/year)
Irrigation (Present)
Other (M&I, F&W & Rec.,
Mineral, etc.) (Present)
Hammond
San Juan-Chama
Navajo Reservoir Evap.
Hogback Expansion
Utah International Inc.
(Four Corners)
Farmington M&I (increase)
Navajo Indian Irrigation
Navajo M&I Contracts
N.M. Pub. Serv. Co. (San Juan)
Utah International Inc.
(WESCO)
El Paso Natural Gas Co.
Other (Gallup)
Animas-La Plata
Irrigation
M&I
Mainstream Reservoir Evap.
520 x .1125
1974
83
13
8
46
24
2
25
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
58
264
Future
83
13
10
110
26
10
39
5
226
16
35
28
8
34
(14)
(20)
58
701
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation. States' Comments, Westwide Study Report
on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States. Denver, Colo.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1976.
the NIIP water demand, it will be necessary to use the entire
operating range and all of the active storage.
All of the water allocated in the basin is not currently
being used. However, proposed developments may create a demand
that exceeds the total available supply. Present and projected
water allocations are shown in Table 7-14. This table is based
on New Mexico's position that the flow available in the Upper
Colorado is 6.3 million acre-ft/yr and reuse of return flows
makes an additional 24,000 acre-ft/yr available to New Mexico.
280
-------
The largest future development is theNIIP, but water commitments for
energy development are also substantial. If the Water for
Energy Management team's estimate of 5.8 million acre-ft/yr is
used to calculate New Mexico's portion of the Upper Colorado
River water, only 671,000 acre-ft/yr would be available, in
which case future depletions would exceed supply. This could
lead to the reallocation of water currently allocated but not
being used or the purchase of existing water rights for new uses.
The quality of water in the San Juan River, which will be
the source of process water for the energy facilities in this
scenario, is shown in Table 7-15 along with typical industrial
water quality requirements and drinking water standards. Sedi-
ment yields from the Chaco Wash area are particularly high,
approximately 2000 tons per square mile per year.1
Two existing power plants are located in the San Juan Basin
in the vicinity of the Navajo/Farmington scenario. The San Juan
Power Plant has a closed-loop water system and does not return
effluent to the San Juan. However, the Four Corners Power Plant
discharges from Morgan Lake into Chaco Wash. This plant also
uses Morgan Lake, a 1,200-acre lake, as a cooling pond. When
evaporative losses from the lake increase water salinity to
levels unacceptable for plant use, the lake is flushed into
Chaco wash and refilled from the San Juan River by pipeline. As
reported by Arizona Public Service Company, the operator of the
Four Corners plant, these intermittent discharges have an aver-
age TDS concentration of 3,OOOmg/& and are somewhat alkaline
(pH levels are often above 9.0).2 in the future, the company
will be required to reduce the TDS levels of water discharged to
comply with state standards and regulations.
7.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
for the Navajo/Farmington scenario are shown in Table 7-16. Two
sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development
System data are based on secondary sources including impact
statements, Federal Power Commission docket filings, and
New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, Water Quality
Division, Water Quality Control Commission. San Juan River
Basin Plan, Draft Report. Santa Fe, N.M.: New Mexico, Water
Quality Cbntrol Commission, 1974.
2According to the New Mexico, Water Quality Control Com-
mission. (San Juan River Basin.Plan.)
281
-------
TABLE 7-15: WATER QUALITY IN SAN JUAN RIVER FOR 1973
a,b
to
oo
to
Constituent
Calcium
Magnesium
Sodium
Potassium
Bicarbonate
Sulfate
Chloride
Nitrate
Total Dissolved Solids
Hardness (Ca, Mg)
pK
Turbidity
Fecal Coliforra
Dissolved Oxygen
Sediment
Farmington (mg/&)
Maximum
71
13
58
3.2
179
130
14
0.50 f
411(1720)
230(820) £
8.1
2.000JTU
28, 000/100 ml
11.6
Time Weighted
Average
55
8.9
31
2.3
143
113
8.3
0.25
300(103)9
174(65)5
7.0
10JTU1 .
10/100 mJ',1
8.41
Shiprock lmg/Jl)
Maximum
78
17
77
3.1
180
210
24
0.64
494 ( 2980) £
260(1100)f
8.5
2,600JTU
5,100/100 mi-
ll. 5
21,800
Time Weighted
Average
60
11
41
2.5
145
150
11
0.33
358(115)?
199(70)9
8.0
25JTUi .
220/100. mj,1
7.7=-
278i
Drinking Water
Standards0
250®
250e
1CL
500e
6.5-8.5e
5J -k
1/100 mi*
Typical
Boiler d
Feedvater
0.10
0.03
0.24
0.01
0.14
0.96
10
0.10
8.8-10.8
Ca = calcium
JTU = Jackson Turbidity Units
Mg — magnesium
mg/a = milligrams per liter
itiJl = milliliters
pH = acidity/alkalinity
U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. 1973 Water Resources Data for New Mexico, Part 2, Water Quality
Records. Albuquerque, H.M.: U.S. Geological Survey, 1975.
Chemical analysis of composites or daily samples.
CU.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulations." 40 Fed. Reg. 59566-88
(December 24, 1975).
^Recommended by American Water Works Association, 1968.
eU.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations." Proposed Regulations.
42 Fed, Reg. 17143-17147 (March 31, 1977).
Maximum of record.
^Minimum of record.
hln Jackson Turbidity Units.
^Minimum measured 1973.
^Maximum turbidity units allowed on a monthly average. Jackson Turbidity Units are assumed to be equivalent to
Turbidity Units in the standard using the Nephelometric Method,
kAs the arithmetic mean of all samples examined per month using the membrane filter technique.
-------
TABLE 7-16: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
Use
Power Generation
Coal Gasification
(Lurgi)
Coal Gasification
( Synth ane)
Coal Liquefaction
Size
3,000 MWe
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/dayf
Requirement3
(acre-feet per year)
ERDSb
42,000
7,460
10,100
19,400
WPAC
40,480
5,630
9,020
11,910
bbl/day = barrels per day.
ERDS = energy resource development system.
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day.
MWe = megawatts-electric.
WPA = Water Purification Associates.
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of 100
percent. Although not realistic for sustained operation,
this load factor indicates the maximum water demand for
these facilities.
Chapter Three of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy Resource
Development Systems for a Technology Assessment of Western
Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
From Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in
the Western United States, Final Report, for University of
Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
recently published data accumulations and can be considered
typical requirement levels. The Water Purification Associates
These Energy Resource Development Systems, which are
forthcoming as a separate publication, are based on data drawn
from: University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975; Radian Corporation. A Western
Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin,
Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
283
-------
data are from a study on minimum water use requirements and take
into account the moisture content of the coal being used and
local meteorological data.1
The use of the water required for energy facilities is
shown in Figure 7-5. As indicated there, the greatest water use
for all energy conversion technologies is for cooling. Solids
disposal consumes comparable quantities of water for all tech-
nologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content of
the feedstock coal.
In addition to the water requirements of the facilities,
the coal mines that provide feedstock coal for the facilities
will also require water. If reclamation of surface-mined lands
includes irrigation, most of the water requirements for mining
will be for reclamation (see Table 7-17).
As mentioned previously, the San Juan River is the only
reliable source of surface water in the area; thus, it is
assumed to be the source of water for the energy facilities
included in this scenario. As shown in Figure 7-3, pipelines
TABLE 7-17: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION6
Mine
Power
Lurgi
Synth ane
Synthoil
Total
Acres Disturbed
Per Year
830
360
360
660
2,210
Maximum
Acres Under
Irrigation
4,150
1,825
1,825
3,300
11,100
Water
Requirement
(acre-ft/yr)
3,110
1,370
1,370
2,475
8,325
Based on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for 5
years.
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, B.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
284
-------
45
40
35
30
i 25
«+-
I
o
V.
U
< 20
o
o
o
15
10
R-42,000
W-40,475
Cooling Tower
Evaporation
Consumed in
the Process
Solids Disposal
Consumption
R-19,400
W-11,911
R-10,096
W-9,023
R-7,457
W-5,629
Power Synthoil Synthane Lurgi
Generation
FIGURE'7-5: WATER CONSUMPTION USES FOR NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
285
-------
will transport water from the San Juan River to the energy
facilities. The rights to this water would have to be purchased
from present holders. Groundwater supplies, the only alterna-
tive source, are not sufficient to support the postulated facil-
ities.
B. Municipalities
The projected water needs of the expected increases in
population are shown in Table 7-18-. This table is divided
into reservation and non-reservation requirements; reser-
vation requirements are projected both with and without a
new town. The water source for most towns is the San Juan
River or its alluvial aquifer. These systems are expected to
expand as the municipal demand increases. (A new town may have
individual domestic wells or may pipe water from the San Juan
River.)
7.3.4 Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The quantities and types of waste streams from the energy
facilities hypothesized for the Navajo/Farmington scenario are
shown in Table 7-19. Fly ash and bottom ash disposal generate
the largest quantities of residuals primarily because the coal
contains 19 percent ash. Flue gas desulfurization also gener-
ates large quantities of residuals from power generation, even
though Four Corners coal contains only 0.7 percent sulfur.
Other residual quantities are insignificant.
All discharge streams from the facilities will be directed
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Run-off
prevention systems will be installed in all areas that have a
pollutant potential. Runoff will be directed to either a
holding pond or a water treatment facility.
B. Municipalities
Rural populations are assumed to use individual on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and
the urban population will require waste treatment facilities.
The current status of wastewater treatment facilities in the
municipalities most affected by energy development activities is
indicated in Table 7-20. Wastewater increases resulting from
development-induced population increases are portioned as shown
in Table 7-21. New wastewater treatment facilities adequate to
meet the demands generated by these hypothetical developments
and the associated population increases are being planned for
all the impacted communities. These facilities will need to use
the "best practicable" waste treatment technology to conform to
1983 standards and have allowance for recycling or zero discharge of
286
-------
TABLE 7-18: EXPECTED INCREASE IN WATER REQUIREMENTS ABOVE 1975 BASE LEVEL
(acre-feet per year)
to
oo
Year
No New Town
1980
1990
2000
New Town
1980
1990
2000
Non-Reservation
b
Farmington
1,440
5,710
8,840
1,440
5,710
8,840
Q
Aztec
180
690
1,080
180
690
1,080
Bloomfield
35
135
210
35
135
210
Reservation
Q
Shiprock
440
1,890
2,540
440
1,890
2,540
Kirtland-f
Waterflow
150
650
860
150
650
860
a
Burnham Area
New Town
-
560
1,540
1,820
rrotn telephone conversation, New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency.
326 gallons per capita per day (gcd)(industrial included), 1972.
C196 gcd, 1972.
d!00 gcd, 1972.
e231 gcd, 1972.
f!05 gcd, 1973.
8125 gcd, estimate.
-------
TABLE 7-19: RESIDUAL GENERATION FROM TECHNOLOGIES AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON'
Coftdensate Treat*
went sludge
Boiler DSBineral-
izer Waste
Treatment Waste
Treatment waste
Flue Gaa
Desulfurixation
Bottom Ash
Disposal
Fly Ash Disposal
Total
Strums
Content1"
o
a
a
1
t
i
Power Generator
Wet-
Solid.
(tpft)
1.7
1.7
.
244.3
5;671.4
3,518.6
10,141.4
19,579.1
Bry-
Solids
(tpd)
0.9
0.9
-
9S.7
2,268.6
1,704.3
8,110
13,130.4
Water
in
Solids
tgpn>>
0.2
0.2
-
24.3
567.1
135. 7
338.6
1,066.1
Synthoil
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
• 57,8
6.7
14.4
45.6
-
16,033.3
-
16,157.8
Ury-
Sollda
(tpd)
11.1
3.3
7.8
23.3
-
12,333.3
•- '
12,378.8
Water
in
Solids
(gpm)
7.8
0.6
1.2
3.9
-
616.7
-
630.2
Synthane
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
116.7
IS. 9
30
26.7
188.9
2.128.9
6,134.4
8,644.5
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
23.3
8.9
1S.6
13.3
75.6
1,635.6
4,907,8
6,680.1
Water
in
Solids
(9T»)
15.6
1.6
2.6
2.2
18.9
82.2
204.4
327.5
Lurgi
wet-
solids
(tpd)
88.9
20
18.9
14.4
520
7,541.1
927.8
• 9,131.1
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
17.8
10
10
6.7
207.8
5.802.2
741
6,795.5
Water
in
Solids
(9P»)
12.2
1.7
1.6
1.2
52.2
290
31.1
390
to
00
00
gpm • gallons per minute
tpd - tons per day
*Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Final
Report, for university of Oklahoma, Science and Public policy Program.; Washington, D.C.i U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. Figures
were adjusted to correspond to a load factor of 100 percent. See Appendix B.
s - soluble inorganic
i - insoluble inorganic
o - insoluble organic
-------
TABLE 7-20:
WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS FOR
TOWNS AFFECTED BY THE NAVAJO SCENARIO3
to
00
Town
Farmington
Aztec
Bloomfield
Shiprock Area
Kirtland-Waterflow-
Fruitland
TyPe of Treatment
2 bar screens, 2 grit
chambers, 2 primary
clarifiers, 2 trickling
filters, 2 secondary
clarifiers, 1 digester
bar screen, grit chamber.
primary clarifier,
digester, trickling
filter, secondary
clarifier
bar screen, clarigester,
trickling filter
bar screen, primary
clarifier, 2 trickling
filters, secondary
clarifier
septic field
Design
Capacity
(MMgpd)
4.5
.6
.125
1
"•
Present
Flow
(MMgpd)
3.7
.48
.32
.48
-
Per Capita
.Flow (gcd)
ltd
100
91
80
-
Future Facilities
Design stage for 5.8 MMgpd,
contract letting Sept. 77
1985 expansion to 7.3 MMgpdb
Planning stage
Redesign-1977, 19 MMgpd
1985, 1.5 MMgpd0
Planning stage
Hone
gcd =» gallons per capita per day
MMgpd = million gallons per day
aPresent data from telephone conversation with the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency.
From telephone conversation with William Matolan & Associates.
cFrom telephone conversation with Denny Engineering.
-------
TABLE 7-21: EXPECTED INCREASES IN WASTEWATER FLOWS'
NJ
-------
pollutants to meet 1985 standards. The 1985 standards could be
met by using effluents for industrial process make-up water or
for irrigating local farmland.
7.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The Lurgi high-Btu (British thermal unit) gasification
plant and its associated surface mine will be constructed and in
operation by 1980.
1. Surface Mines
As noted previously, the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer
is about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal seam and would
probably be the only aquifer affected by mining. Flow patterns
in the aquifer may be disturbed by blasting required to open the
Lurgi plant coal mine.
Surface-water drainage patterns will be affected by mine
excavations, some of which will trap runoff. Unless these ponds
are pumped out regularly, the impounded water may eventually
percolate into the groundwater system or evaporate, but this is
not expected to produce a significant impact. Losses in runoff
due to mine excavations are not expected to be significant
locally because area streams are ephemeral and water would
quickly dry up in any case. This loss of runoff into tribu-
taries of the Colorado River would not reduce the flow in the
river to a great extent.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Construction activities at the power plant will remove
vegetation and disturb the soil. These activities have an
effect on surface-water quality. The major effect will be from
increases in the sediment load of local runoff. Maintenance
areas and petroleum products storage facilities will also be
needed to support construction equipment. Areas for the stor-
age of other construction-related materials (such as aggregate
for a concrete batch plant) may be required as well. All these
facilities have the potential for contaminating runoff. Runoff
control methods will be instituted at all of these potential
sources of contaminants; runoff will be channeled to a holding
pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. Because the supply
of water to this pond is"intermittent, evaporation may claim
most of the water, although some of the water may be used for
dust control.
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972,
§§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §f 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
291
-------
A well drilled into the Morrison sandstone aquifer will
provide water for the construction of the Lurgi plant while the
water supply pipeline is being built from the San Juan River to
the plant site. Only about 400 acre-feet will be needed from
the aquifer before the pipeline is completed, a small part of
the total water supply available from this aquifer.
Holding ponds and runoff retention facilities will decrease
runoff from the plant sites below present levels. This loss may
decrease flow in the San Juan River, but the effect will be small
and temporary.
3. Municipal Facilities
From the present to 1980, most urban growth will be absorbed by
existing communities, and local groundwater systems will not be
significantly affected. Additional demands will be made on
surface-water supplies, but the overall increases should be small
(see Table 7-18).
Municipalities must secure a permit to withdraw additional
water from surface supplies in the area. As shown in Tables 7-20
and 7-21, wastewater treatment facilities will be operating at
or exceeding design capacity in Farmington and Bloomfield by
1980. Unless new facilities come on-line to meet these require-
ments, some surface-water pollution may result from overloads
and/or bypasses.
B. Impacts to 1990
During the 1980-1990 period, the power plant and the
Synthane high-Btu gasification facility will be constructed and
become operational. Population increases resulting from these
developments may be accommodated by existing communities or by a
new town on reservation lands.
1. Surface Mines
The three mines in operation by 1990 will affect the water
quality of the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer because, as indi-
cated previously, it lies only about 30 feet below the lowest
coal bed. Weathering and leaching of mine wastes and ash that
are deposited in mined-out areas will probably result in poor
quality water filtering into the aquifer. However, the low
annual precipitation of the area lessens the potential serious-
ness of this problem. In any case, water quality in the aquifer
is already poor (TDS from 49 wells average about 25,500 mg/A and
range from 1,000 to 75,000 mg/£).
Groundwater seepage or storm-water runoff that pools in
operational areas of mines will be recycled. The quality of
water impounded in mined-out locations within the Navajo/
292
-------
Farmington area should be approximately the same as the quality
of water in natural streams. 1 These impoundments will not result in
a significant loss of water to the Colorado River System. The
mines will have encompassed approximately 7,800 acres by 1990.
If it is found that runoff retention facilities are required for
this area, approximately 130 acre-ft/yr of water would be with-
held from the local watersheds.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Construction activities will increase greatly during the
1980-1990 period. Consequently the construction-related impacts
described for the previous decade will also increase in magni-
tude.
The three plants in operation by 1990 will probably not
significantly affect the quantity of recharge water fed to the
Pictured Cliffs aquifer. The failure or inadequacy of liners in
on-site holding ponds may result in the leakage of pollutants
into the Pictured Cliffs aquifer. Since plant effluents will be
contained within the plant sites, no other aquifer systems will
be affected by 1980, and withdrawal from the Morrison aquifer
will cease by then.
Changes in surface-water quality will occur primarily as a
result of the combined water dem?nds of all the energy develop-
ment facilities. The water supply system may eventually have a
salt-concentrating effect because it will remove water with a
relatively low TDS content from the river basin. Consequently,
some increase in TDS may be noticed at both Lake Powell and Lake
Mead.2 The TDS concentrations at Shiprock and at Imperial Dam
will increase by approximately 7.1 and 2.9mg/£ respectively.3
These increases are estimated averages and could be higher at
Shiprock during low-flow periods. .The increases would probably
not vary seasonally at the major reservoirs because of their
large buffer capacity. The Utah Water Resources Laboratory of
the University of Utah estimates that the annual economic cost
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.
2
Bureau of Reclamation. WESCO Project; FES. This state-
ment calls for four 1,000 million standard cubic feet per day
gasification plants to be operating under 1981 conditions.
3Ibid.
293
-------
of salinity ranges from $45,900 to $230,000 for each
increase in TDS.l
Some concentration of suspended solids (sediment) will
occur downstream from the pipeline intakes if a gravel bed-
perforated pipe intake filtration system is used. This system
will remove only clear water, thus leaving most suspended par-
ticles in the San Juan River. At the plant sites, changes in
surface-water quality will be negligible because of the small
amount of runoff (0.1-0.2 inch per year) and the runoff control
systems provided.
Plant effluents are not expected to significantly affect
surface water qualities because of the use of discharge tech-
nology that meet the goals of the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act Amendments of 1972.
3. Municipal Facilities
Neither growth of the existing communities nor establish-
ment of a new town is expected to have much effect on ground-
water quality or quantity. However, some increased municipal
and industrial needs must be met from surface water.
As shown in Tables 7-20 and 7-21, the municipal wastewater
loads will continue to stress the existing system. The 1976
design loads will be equalled or exceeded in Farmington, Aztec,
Bloomfield, and Shiprock. Current expansion plans will provide
adequate capacity in Farmington and Bloomfield if constructed
on an appropriate schedule.
Runoff will be increased by the expansion of existing
towns. This runoff is generally routed directly into major
streams and will eventually augment flow in the San Juan River.
C. Impacts to 2000
The only major facilities to be added during the 1990-2000
decade are a Synthoil liquefaction plant and its associated coal
mine. The mine will begin operation in 1999, and the plant will
come on-line in 2000. Thus, the impacts associated with these
facilities will be primarily related to construction during this
decade.
Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, Executive
Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commis-
sion on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research
Laboratory, 1975.
294
-------
The water impacts to 2000 are expected to be qualitatively
about the same as to 1990. Quantitatively, the impacts will be
somewhat higher because of the cumulative effect of the three
existing plants and because of the addition of the Synthoil
plant. Population growth will also continue during the decade,
resulting in additional water demands and wastewater treatment
requirements.
D. Impacts After 2000
After the plants are decommissioned, the structures will
remain. Although many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated,
irrigation of the areas will ultimately cease. Subsequently,
vegetation may be lost and erosion may increase. The berms
around the ponds will also probably lose their protective vege-
tation and erode, and the berms may breach as a result. If this
happens, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter
the surface-water system. Although the salt materials from the
evaporation ponds eventually will return to their original
source, the San Juan River, concentrations may be high enough to
cause localized damage to aquatic ecosystems. Likewise, the
addition of trace materials and solids from the ash disposal and
tailings ponds may have an adverse effect. The low precipi-
tation in the scenario area will retard the transport of these
materials.
The towns associated with the energy development will
likely remain but populations will decline. The effects of
increased storm-water runoff from urban areas and the associated
introduction of contaminants into surface water will also remain
unless the water is treated.
7.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts
The total surface-water requirement for the postulated
energy facilities is as much as 102,700 acre-ft/yr, including
water needs resulting from development-related population
increases and the postulated new town development. Combined
with other current and planned surface-water usage in the area,
this demand may exceed New Mexico's total allotment from the
San Juan Basin, depending on the value used to represent the
dependable flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry.
A potential long-term groundwater pollution problem is pond
leakage. Pond liners should forestall this problem during the
life of the plants, but the materials are likely to leach
through the liners eventually and enter the groundwater system.
Another possible impact following the cessation of mainte-
nance .activities is the eventual destruction of berms containing
salts, ash, trace materials, sanitary sludge, and scrubber
sludge. If concentrations of these materials enter surface
295
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water systems, both local biota and downstream water users might
be affected.
Identification and description of several water impacts have
been limited by available information. Missing data include
detailed information about process streams (needed to identify
the composition of discharges to settling ponds) and about the
rate of movement of toxic materials through pond liners (needed
to estimate the portions that might reach shallow aquifers).
More quantitative information will be sought during the remain-
der of the project so that these potential impacts can be prop-
erly evaluated.
7.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
7.4.1 Introduction
San Juan County, the site of the hypothetical energy devel-
opment proposed in the Navajo/Farmington scenario, is located in
the extreme northwestern corner of New Mexico.
Understanding the many differences between Indians and non-
Indians in the county is basic to an analysis of the social,
economic, and political effects of energy development within the
Navajo/Farmington area. In the analyses which follow, Indian
and non-Indian and reservation and nonreservation impacts gener-
ally are treated separately. During the first year, secondary
sources were relied on to understand these differences; .however,
field work currently under way in the Navajo/Farmington area is
intended to add to the team's understanding and to sharpen the
analyses undertaken during the remainder of the project.
7.4.2 Existing Conditions
Less than 6 percent of the land in San Juan County is pri-
vately owned. The Navajo and the Ute Mountain Reservations
occupy approximately 60 percent of the county; another 4.8 per-
cent is owned by the state, and 29.5 percent is owned by the
federal government.
San Juan County's 1974 population was 61,700, 56 percent of
which was located in the three cities of Aztec, Bloomfield, and
Farmington. Population density countywide was 11.2 persons per
square mile; outside the three cities, it was 4.9. Approxi-
mately 35 percent of the county's 1970 population was Indian, 96
percent living on the Navajo Reservation. Thirteen percent of
the population either had Spanish surnames or used Spanish as
their primary language. Less than 1 percent was Black. Except
for a slight decline between 1960 and 1970, the county's popu-
lation has been increasing over the past 35 years. Population
in the three cities has also been increasing, and people have
296
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been somewhat more mobile than is generally the case' in the
western U.S.-*-
Housing in the county is relatively new, four-fifths of it
having been built since 1950. Between 1970 and 1973, 739 new
homes were constructed? 551 in 1973 alone. Mobile homes com-
prised about 12 percent of all the houses in Farmington.2
The median value of a single-family dwelling in the county
was about $13,000 in 1970 ($21,000 in 1975 dollars); the median
rent was $80 ($130 in 1975 dollars). Both were somewhat higher
in Farmington: the median house value there was about $18,000,
and the median rent was about $165.3 in early 1976, the minimum
price housing in Farmington was about $22,000, and the median
was over $30,000. Rents ranged from $175 to about $260 per
month. 4
The county is governed by a board of commissioners. A
substantial planning capacity has been developed within the
County Planning and Research Department, which now has both a
planner and assistant planner. Except for transportation and
housing supply, the county seems to have an adequate infra-
structure and service mix to accommodate additional population
growth.5 There is no Countywide zoning ordinance at present.
However, a land-use study is under way, the results of which are
to be used by the commissioners to decide whether a zoning
ordinance is needed.
In 1970, owner occupants of dwellings had been in their
homes a median of 5.4 years and renters for 2.5 years. Of the
1970 population, 72.7 percent had lived in the same county in
1965.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
County and City Data Book; A Statistical Abstract Supplement.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972; New Mexico,
Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Community Profile;
Farmington, 1974-75. Santa Fe, N.M.: New Mexico, Department of
Development, 1974.
4
Farmington (New Mexico) Chamber of Commerce. General
Information, January 15, 1976. Farmington, N.M.: Chamber of
Commerce, 1976.
See Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the
Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center
Area. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center
for Business Services, 1974; and Farmington Chamber of Commerce.
297
-------
Shiprock is the only urban center on the San Juan County
portion of the reservation.1 It is unincorporated, has no
established boundaries, and is governed by the Tribal Council.
Public services are provided by the tribal, county, state, and
federal governments. Water, sewer, and electrical services are
provided generally only along the highway south from Shiprock.
Health services are provided by the Public Health Service and
the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA). Public safety is maintained
by the Navajo and state police forces and the county sheriff.
The BIA and the state of New Mexico 'construct arid maintain the
roads.
Farmington, the area's largest city, is governed by a four-
member council, has a city manager, and has a professional
planning capability. City services include water, sewers,
electricity, police and fire protection, and recreation. There
are no social assistance services apart from those provided
jointly by the county and state.
According to the city planning department, most of the ser-
vice delivery systems are currently operating at or near capac-
ity. A recently completed status report identifies some $30
million worth of projects that are needed to absorb already
anticipated population impacts.2 in the view of both city and
county officials, the primary need is construction and operating
funds, not help in identifying and analyzing problems.
The other off-reservation cities, Aztec and Bloomfield,
have mayor-council governments and a city manager. Except for
electricity, services in both are the same as those provided by
Farmington.
Although a major portion of the reservation is within San
Juan County, the Navajos retain a separate identity as the
Navajo Nation. While the Navajos govern themselves, there are
numerous unanswered questions in Indian law that can affect
energy development in the area. For example, the water rights
of Indians generally3 are in question. The applicability of
There are smaller, unincorporated communities in the
Farmington/Shiprock corridor. These include Kirtland, Fruit-
land, and Waterflow.
o
Farmington, New Mexico, City of. Status Report, March 11.
1976. Farmington, N.M.: City of Farmington, 1976.
Pelcyger, Robert S. "Indian Water Rights, Some Emerging
Frontiers," in Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation. Rocky
Mountain Mineral Law Institute; Proceedings of the Twenty-First
Annual Institute, July 17-19, 1975. New York, N.Y.: Matthew
Bender, 1975, p. 70.
298
-------
state laws intended to regulate energy development, particularly
environmental laws, is also unresolved.1
Concerning its ability to absorb and serve the anticipated
population increases, the tribe has been increasing its profes-
sional staff, particularly its capacity to plan for economic
development. "The Tribal Council, the legislative arm of tribal
government, has also created specialized commissions to deal
with revenue needs and environmentally related challenges. For
example, the Navajo Tax Commission is studying the potential for
establishing property taxes within the reservation as a means of
funding traditional services provided by the Council. In addi-
tion, this Commission is involved in efforts to renegotiate
existing royalty rates for mining activity on Navajo land
because the tribe believes it did not receive equitable treat-
ment in the past. Another special commission, the Navajo Envi-
ronmental Protection Commission, was created in response to the
Navajo's need for an independent environmental assessment, regu-
latory, and enforcement organization. This five-member commis-
sion has the authority to implement the environmental policy of
the tribe, serves as a forum for environmental information col-
lection, and considers adverse environmental impacts associated
with potential development on the reservation.2
The area's non-reservation economy is characterized by its
diversity as illustrated by the 1973 distribution of employment
shown in Table 7-22. However, the reservation economy is still
predominantly agricultural, and the unemployment rate among
Indians is well above the county average shown in Table 7-22.
Farmington is the economic service center for northwestern
New Mexico and thus contains a major portion of the available
professional and supporting services for the various industrial
and agricultural activities in the area. However, some sup-
porting services are available in Aztec, Bloomfield, and
Shiprock.
Will, J. Kemper. Questions and Answers on EPA's Authority
Regarding Indian Tribes. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1976.
o
For a discussion of the development of Navajo Environ-
mental Protection Commission and problems related to the Commis-
sion1 s attempts to implement its regulatory and assessment
potential, see Cortner, Hanna J. The Navajo Environmental
Protection Commission and the Environmental Impact Statement,
Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 27. Los Angeles, Calif.:
University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary
Physics, 1976.
299
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TABLE 7-22:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN
SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1973
Industry
Total Civilian Work Force
Total Employed
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Mining
Contract Construction
Transportation, Communications,
and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, and
Real Estate
Government
Services and Miscellaneous
Total unemployed
Employees
21,193
19,371
1,597
1,754
1,803
1,943
2,015
3,596
438
3,439
2,787
l,822a
%of
Employed
100
8.2
9.1
9.3
10
10.4
18.6
2.3
17.8
14.4
Source: State of New Mexico Department of Development,
Economic Development Division.
a8.2 percent of labor force.
Per-capita income in the county was $3,147 in 1972, which
was below the average of $3,512 for the state as a whole. 1 For
the Navajo Nation as a whole, the median per-capita income was
$1,984 in 1969 and about $2,220 in 1972, well below the county
and state averages. 2 Thus, relatively higher incomes off the
reservation contrast sharply with low incomes among Navajos.
University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research. New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975. Albuquerque,
N.M.: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research, 1975, p. 50.
o
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census
of Population; 1970; Subject Reports; Final Report PC(2)-lF;
American Indians. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office,
1973.
300
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7.4.3 Population Impacts
Employment data for both energy development and the
Navajo Indian Irrigation Project2 are listed in Tables 7-23 and
7-24 and presented graphically in Figure 7-6.3 Population
increases are expected in both Indian and non-Indian areas
(Table 7-25; Figures 7-7 and 7-8). In this analysis, population
increases are assumed to be absorbed both by existing communities
Employment data for energy facilities are from: Carasso,
M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco,
Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
2
For discussions of the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project,
see Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Over-
view. Boise,Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen,1975. Morrison-Knudsen's
population projections of the project are from Zickefoose,
Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway
Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces,
N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services,
1974, p. 1(78.
i
Population impacts were determined using an economic base
model, construction and operation employment data from Table
7-23, sets of secondary/basic employment multipliers which
increase during the early years of energy development (Table
7-24), and population/employment multipliers which include
wives working in service jobs (Table 7-25). The final compo-
nent of population change was natural increase which was assumed
to be: 0.8 percent annually from 1975 to 1990 and 0.5 percent
thereafter for the Anglo population; and 2.5 percent from 1975
to 1985, 2.0 percent from 1986 to 1995, and 1.5 percent there-
after for the Navajo population. The Indian employment on
energy projects was assumed to be one-half of the total through
1990 and 80 percent after 1990. All non-Navajos from outside
San Juan County was assumed to be .64 through 1980, .86 from
1981-85, .76 from 1986-90, and .69 after 1990. Ninety percent
of Navajo Indian Irrigation Project employment is assumed to be
Navajo, 90 percent of which is assumed to be non-local to San
Juan County. See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasifi-
cation Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah Interna-
tional Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.
Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado
Region, 1976, pp. 3-173 to 3-178.
301
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TABLE 7-23:
NEW EMPLOYMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY
FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND
NAVAJO INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT,
1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Energy
Construction
0
40
250
620
1,120
1 , 560
2,890
5,440
6,880
70
820
2,890
4,890
2,830
0
0
0
0
30
260
1,010
2,070
2 , 380
1,730
640
0
Energy
Operation
0
0
0
0
270
270
550
660
940
1,040
2,130
2,130
2,400
2,400
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,550
4,180
5,100
Navajo Indian
Irrigation
Project
0
460
570
660
810
980
1,190
1,510
1,600
1,740
1,780
2,120
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
Total
0
500
820
1,280
2,200
2,810
4,630
7,610
9,420
2,850
4,730
7,140
9,430
7,370
5,410
5,410
5,410
5,410
5,440
5,670
6,420
7,480
7,790
7,420
6,960
7,240
Source: Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis
of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock
Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State
University, Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 178.
302
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TABLE 7-24:
ASSUMED SECONDARY/BASIC EMPLOYMENT
MULTIPLIERS FOR NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
SCENARIO, 1976-2000a
Date
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993-2000
Construction Phase
Multipliers
Anglo
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Navajo
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Operation Phase
Multipliers
Anglo
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
Navajo
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
Assumed Population/Employee Multipliers
Activity '
Construction
Operation
Service
Non-Navajo Navajo
2.05 5.0
2.3 5.0
2.0 4.0
aThese values were determined by synthesizing mate-
rials from several sources and may be low for the
non-Navajo population. See New Mexico State Uni-
versity, Department of Agricultural Economics and
Agricultural Business. Socio-Economic Impact-on
Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal
Resources. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State
University, Department of Agricultural Economics
and Agricultural Business, pp. 37-53; Morrison-
Knudsen Company. Navaio New Town Feasibility Over-
view. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975;
Robbins, Lynn A. The Impact of Power Development
on the Navaio Nation, Lake Powell Research Project
Bulletin 7. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of
California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary
Physics,.1975; U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation. El Paso Coal Gasification
Project, New Mexico; Draft Environmental State-
ment. Salt Lake' City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974; Zickefoose, Paul W. A_
Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway
Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las
Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State University, Cencer
for Business Services, 1974; U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification
Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expan-
sion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., Hew
Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt
Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado
Region, 1976. Navano household size was 5.1 persons per
household in 1970 and the multipliers in the table may be
large on average considering single workers.
^Non-Navajo population multipliers are adapted from
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile,
Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional
Commission, 1976.
303
-------
10 -,
UJ
o
Total
Energy
/ Operation
\ /
" I *
/ ..—•;' x\ Navajo Indian
..'C-_ J--------.----7-'r-V ' .
i / \ irrigation project
* ' ^
\ Energy
—A construction
I i I
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 7-6: NEW EMPLOYMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND NAVAJO
INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, 1975-2000
-------
TABLE 7-25: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR SAN JUAN COUNTY
u>
o
01
Location
Reservation
Shiprock
New Town
Other Navajo
Total
Non-Reservation
Farmington
Aztec
Bloomfield
Other
Total
County Total
1975
4,000
0
21,000
25,000
27,300
5,500
2,100
1,800
36,700
61,700
1980
5,300
4,000
23,600
32,900
30,800
6,200
2,350
1,950
41,300
74,200
1983
8,200
6,000
36,900
51,100
38,600
7,800
2,950
2,550
51,900
103,000
1985
6,900
8,000
28,100
43,000
34,100
6,900
2,600
2,300
45,900
88,900
1987
8,800
10,000
36,400
55,200
40,200
8,150
3,100
2,550
54,000
109", 200
1990
8,100
12,000
30,600
50,700
37,100
7,500
2,850
2,450
49,900
100,600
1995
8,900
12,000
34,800
55,700
38,600
7,800
2,950
2,550
51,900
107,600
2000
11,300
12,000
47,600
70,900
40,600
8,200
3,100
2,600
54,500
125,400
Given the assumptions of the scenario, these estimates have an error range of about
percent, which is then incorporated in further projections below.
-------
70 -i
60 H
Total reservation
Other Navajo
New town
Shiprock area
1 '83 ! '8V ' ' '
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 7-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NAVAJO RESERVATION PORTION
OF SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1980-2000
-------
U)
o
-J
60
(A
40
c
o
30
o
•5 20
O.
O
a.
10 -
1975
'83 ' '87
Total non-reservation
Farmington
Aztec
Bloomfield
Other non-reservation
I I ~l
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 7-8: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NON-RESERVATION PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY,
1980-2000
-------
and by a new town to be built in the Burnham area by energy
developers.1 The populations for the new town in Table 7-25 are
postulated as an example of the effect of the town. It would
generally house less than 20 percent of the Navajo population in
the county.
Because of the assumptions concerning Navajo employment and
the likelihood that Navajo employees would come from elsewhere
on the reservation, the Navajo population in San Juan County is
expected to double by 1983 and to reach more than 70,000 by 2000.
(For example, if family members of Navajos remain in Arizona,
then the estimates in Table 7-25 are high.) Farmington will grow
to 40,000 by 1987, but after a construction phase will not reach
that size again until 2000. Overall, the county population will
nearly double between 1975 and 2000 in the scenario.
The population of the county will increase about 16 percent
by 1980 and 58 percent by 1990. The relative proportion of
Navajos should increase from the present 40 to 60 percent. Some
of the impetus for the increase in Navajo population will be the
job opportunitites afforded by the Navajo Indian Irrigation
Project (NIIP), as shown by Figure 7-5. Much of the increase is
expected to occur in the vicinity of Shiprock, where housing
with plumbing is being provided by the Navajo Tribe. The new
town would be the largest urban area in the Navajo part of the
county.
7.4.4 Housing and School Impacts
A. Housing
As shown in Table 7-26, the number of households in the
county will probably double by 2000. Navajo housing demand will
double by 1983 and will be three times the 1975 level by the
late 1990's.
Much of the required new housing could be supplied by con-
tinued expansion of the Navajo Tribal housing development at
Shiprock, which has already provided several hundred one- and
Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navaio New Town Feasibility
Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975. Although
the preliminary plans for the town suggest a fairly even
Navajo-Anglo population, its location on the reservation and
Farmington's proximity will probably eliminate its attraction to
non-Indian families. WESCO's final environmental impact state-
ment does not discuss a new town, stating that it is not a near-
term possibility.
308
-------
TABLE 7-26:
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
IN SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1975-2000
Category
Households
Elementary
Enrollment
(20% of
population) c
Secondary
(10% of
population)
Year
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
Nava jo
Reservation
Portion3
5,000
6,600
10,200
8,600
13,800
15,000
13,900
17,700
5,000
6,600
10,200
8,600
11,000
10,100
11,100
14,200
2,500
3,300 ,
5,100
4,300
5,500
5,050
5,550
7,100
Non -Reservation
Portion^
11,000
12,400
15,600
13,800
16,200
12,700
15,600
16,300
7,300
8,300
10,400
9,200
10,800
10,000
10,400
10,900
3,650
4,150
5,200
4,600
5,400
5,000
5,200
5,450
Total
16,000
19,000
25,800
22,400
30,000
27,700
29,500
34,000
12,300
14,900
20,600
17,800
21,800
20,100
21,500
25,100
6,150
7,450
10,300
8,900
10,900
10,050
10,750
12,550
Based on five persons per household through 1985 and four
persons per household after.
Based on 3.3 persons per household. Both this and the above
assumption give high estimates during construction.
•t
'Overall averages, which may be high during construction.
309
-------
two-family homes with plumbing.1 A shortfall in housing supply
could, result in a scattering of hogans, shanties, and mobile
homes without running water in the vicinity of the irrigation
and energy projects. If the new town is built/ it could pro-
vide new employment opportunities and supply a significant pro-
portion of the housing need for Navajo families. Water for the
town could be drawn from the San Juan River along with water for
the energy facilities. Finally, clusters of housing in the
Farmington/Shiprock corridor are likely. Some Navajo homes in
this area might be provided with running water by 1985.
By 2000, new off-reservation housing demands in Farmington,
Aztec, and Bloomfield will be approximately 4,000, 800, and 300
homes respectively. With few vacancies in the housing market,
many of these may be mobile homes near existing developments or
along the highway east and west of Farmington. 2 The spread of mobile
homes outside urban areas will be constrained primarily by the
availability of water but also by the availability of other
utilities and the location of privately owned land in the county.
B. Schools
As shown in Table 7-26, school enrollment can be expected
to increase until 1990. These school enrollment changes also
show distinctions between Indians and non-Indians. The Central
Consolidated School District serving the reservation will be the
most affected. The number of students will double by 1983 to
15,300 and then remain relatively constant until about 2000.
Both elementary and secondary enrollment will not peak until
2000, and a low point appears about 1985.
At 30 students per classroom, about 260 classrooms will be
needed in the Central School District by 1983 and another 200 by
the year 2000. Financing for school construction on the reser-
vation could be facilitated from the proposed energy projects if
property taxes are levied, as they can be for this purpose.3
Running water is unavailable except in the northern sec-
tion of the county. Even there, it was unavailable until Ship-
roc^c was hooked up with the Farmington municipal system. In the
central and southern parts of the county, poor-quality ground-
water is the only supply. See Section 7.3.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico; Draft Environ-
mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-123 to 2-130.
3
Property taxes generally do not exist in the Navajo Nation,
However, a large portion of school costs are provided from the
state level.
310
-------
However, the revenues would lag behind the need by as much as 3
years. Some prepayment plan, or the proceeds from coal royal-
ties, could provide the revenue for school construction with the
necessary lead time.l New schools in the Burnham area, in par-
ticular, would help eliminate the present necessity for boarding
schools.2
In the Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield School Districts,
enrollment can be expected to increase somewhat during constru-
tion peaks.3 The Farmington School District had excess class-
room capacity in 1974^ but will need about 145 classrooms by
1983. With expected enrollments, the need for additional class-
room space will be minimal after the 1980's.
In higher education, the San Juan College campus of New
Mexico University in Farmington (600-700 students) and the Ship-
rock Branch of Navajo Community College (more than 200 students)
will perhaps triple their current enrollments. As employment
opportunities become available to more Navajos, vocational
training at the Shiprock Branch may increase even more. Training
facilities, such as the Navajo Engineering and Construction
Authority, train workers in heavy construction trades, and the
demand for this training can be expected to increase as more
energy development takes place on the reservation.5
Some of the financial requirement will also be borne by
the Federal government, since currently about one-fourth of the
Navajo children attend Bureau of Indian Affairs schools.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project/ New Mexico; Draft Environ-
mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-121, 3-72 to 3-73.
3
No large increases are expected because of the lowering
birth rate of the white population. U.S., Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census. "Projections of the Population of
the United States, by Age and Sex: 1972 to 2000." Current Pop-
ulation Reports, Series P-25, No. 493 (1972).
4
Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cost Burden,
Problems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Com-
munities of the West. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development/ 1975, p. IV-14.
Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the
Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center
Area. Las Cruces,,N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center
Business Services, 1974, pp. 131, 148-49.
311
-------
7.4.5 Land Use
Overall land use for energy development, primarily the strip
mine operations, will be relatively small but will have local
significance. Larger, long-term impacts will result from theNIIP.
The energy development analyzed here will use about 307
square miles. 1 About 5 percent of the land area of San Juan County
will be removed from grazing. Much of this land is currently
being used by Navajos as an extension of their reservation
grazing lands. Another 10-15 square miles will be used for
urban development and expansion. This development will occur
mainly in the Shiprock/Farmington corridor of the San Juan
Valley and in the Burnham area in connection with the new town.
Some of the changes are likely to affect the lifestyle of
the Navajo. A reduction in grazing area may be beneficial for
the long-term use of the land but may be troubling to families
accustomed to a"rural existence. The expansion of urban area
and increased income will be of benefit only if adequate housing,
water supply, and other infrastructure development allow the
Navajo standard of living to improve. A number of existing
roads will be improved and paved, but few new roads will be
built. Expanding irrigation within the county will be the major
land-related impact during the scenario time frame.
7.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
One immediate change from energy development will be in
local income distribution. In San Juan County, positive bene-
fits will accrue to the Navajo population as new employment :
opportunities allow them to increase their incomes and improve
their living standards.
Currently, two of the greatest disparities between Indians
and non-Indians occur in income and housing conditions.2 The
1969 median income of white families in San Juan County was
$9,343; the overall median in the county was $8,139. On the
See also U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasifi-
cation Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah Interna-
tional Inc., New Mexico; Final Environmental Statement. 2 vols.
Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado
Region, 1976, pp. 3-203 to 3-209.
o
Detailed data are scarce. Hopefully, the field work men-
tioned earlier will provide a better basis for comparisons than
do current data.
312
-------
Navajo Reservation as a whole, a median per-capita income was
$1,984?1 comparable data on Navajo family income in the county
are not available.
As shown in Table 7-27, the percentage of families with
incomes in the $8,000-10,000 range increases through 1985 and
then declines.2 The median income and the proportion of house-
holds earning $15,000 and over fluctuates with the amount of
construction activity (compare with Table 7-23). Overall, there
will be relatively fewer low-income families, the result being
a fairly constant median income. However, an overall increase
in earnings for Navajos is expected, primarily because of a
greater number of on-reservation job opportunities. The pro-
jected income distribution in Table 7-27 includes income increases
for several hundred Navajo households currently in the area.
Decreases in overall median income, when they occur, reflect a
relative decrease in high-paying jobs in the oil and gas indus-
tries.
A second major economic effect will be the expansion of
business activity, particularly on the Navajo reservation where
a number of new business establishments should be located. The
potential of a concentrated market in the new town near Burnham
would be attractive to businesses, but several bottlenecks to
business development might occur. A major problem will be
financing new enterprises since credit, even from the Small
Business Administration, appears to be difficult to obtain.3
Also, since reservation land is communally owned and may not be
sold, a use-right must be obtained from both the tribal govern-
ment and the area agency of the Bureau of Indian Affairs before
a business can be established. The application process involves
some 20 steps and may take up to 5 years to complete.^ This has
discouraged business activity on the reservation, including
those in the two largest expenditures categories for Navajos:
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Census of Population; 1970? Subject Reports; Final Report PC
(2)-lF: American Indians. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1973.
2
The income estimates here do not take into account national
trends in income growth from productivity gains and other
causes.
3
U.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation; An
American Colony. Washington, D.C.: Commission on Civil Rights,
1975, pp. 31-39.
4 '
Ibid., pp. 39-40.
313
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TABLE 7-27: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Annual Income
(1975 Dollars)
less
than
$4,000
.184
.138
.137
.126
.120
.119
$4,000
to
$5,999
.068
.056
.060
.058
.056
.058
$6,000
to
$7,999
.065
.052
.078
.072
.069
.069
$8,000
to
$9,999
.075
.130
.144
.134
.128
.126
$10,000
to
$11,999
.080
.078
.080
.084
.085
.088
$12,000
to
$14,999
.125
.120
.118
.120
.120
.122
$15,000
to
$24,999
.291
.311
.286
.308
.321
.323
$25,000
and
over
.113
.115
.098
.097
.101
.096
Median
Household
Income
12,700
13,150
12,000
12,650
13,050
13,000
Source: Data for 1975 are adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census. Household Income in 1969
for States. SMSA's. Cities, and Counties: 1970. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1973, by inflating to 1975 dollars. Income distributions for energy project con-
struction and operation workers and service employees are from Mountain West Research Con-
struction Worker Profile. Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,
p. 50, assuming that "other newcomers" are operation employees and that new service workers
earn between the U.S. average and the distribution for long-time residents. Northern
Indian Irrigation Project workers are assumed to earn $7,800; see Morrison-Knudsen Company,
Navalo New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. 111-10.
-------
automobile and truck sales and food purchases.1 Most of the
commercial benefits that will follow from an increase in the
income of the San Juan County Navajos will go to businesses in
Gallup and Farmington. It appears that business activity
in these two communities will increase in any case and
that activity at Shiprock and the new town site could be
encouraged by an easing of credit and tribal policies on land
aquisition.
Additional industries which may locate in the county include
cattle processing facilities (feedlots and slaughter operations)
of the Navajo Agricultural Products Industry, on-site facilities
to process by-products of gasification,2 and a possible rail
spur north from Gallup to Burnham or Shiprock.3 There is con-
siderable uncertainty regarding the latter two.
The extent to which usual boom effects will occur in San
Juan County is not known. Local inflation in housing costs and
wage rates for service workers is taking place, but public ser-
vices and facilities are in much better shape than in more
isolated areas with no large towns. Price increases for retail
goods and services will affect both Indians and non-Indians; the
largest effect will be felt by those who do not benefit from
wage inflation.
B. Fiscal
Public finance aspects are complicated by the location of
facilities on an Indian reservation, as well as recent changes
in federal mineral policies. The "dual entitlement" status of
Indians means that the federal government provides many ser-
vices (such as sanitation, health, and education), but local
government must stand ready to provide services to Indians in
their role as U.S. citizens.4 The tribal council acts as
another level of government in performing many traditional local
government functions, such as police protection. Nevertheless,
Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navaio New Town Feasibility
Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. II-2.
Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the
Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center
Area. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center
for Business Services, 1974, pp. 200-202.
4
U.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation; An
American Colony. Washington, D.C.: Commission on Civil Rights,
1975.
315
-------
no public agency can levy property taxes within the reservation,
except for a few limited items.1
The only substantial new revenue source available to the
Tribal Council will be a royalty on coal. The amount of money
involved is difficult to predict, because it depends on negoti-
ation, but may be very substantial. Three estimates are pre-
sented here, based on three plausible assumptions. First, the
current royalty rate of 17.5 cents per ton is maintained. With
production growing to 42 million tons per year, annual revenues
would correspondingly rise to $7.4 million. Second, negoti-
ations for new leases could reflect the rise in coal values that
has occurred since the old leases were signed. During the first
10 years of the old leases, New Mexico coal brought an average
of $3.40 per ton,2 so that the royalty represented 4.41 percent
of mine-mouth value. Assuming the same percentage applied to
prices expected as of the new mines' opening in 1980,3 royalties
of 39.7 cents would produce $16.7 million annually by 2000.
Finally, royalties could follow principles laid down in the new
Coal Mineral Leasing Act of 1976; namely, that a 12.5-percent
rate will be attempted. That would generate $47.3 million
annually for the Navajos by the end of the century.
For expenditures, the Tribal Council is assumed to provide
all local government services for residents except education,
health care, and construction of water and sewage facilities.4
As noted above, the Navajo Tax Commission is studying the
potential for establishing property taxes. At rates comparable
with Farmington1s, some $57 million per year could be collected
from the energy facilities in our scenario. See Zickefoose,
Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway
Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces,
N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Ser-
vices, 1974, p. 152.
2
National Coal Association. Coal Facts 1974-1975. Wash-
ington, D.C.: National Coal Association, 1974, p. 68.
3
$9.01, according to the SRI model. See Cazalet, Edward,
et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study; Economics,
Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research
institute, 1976.
4
In New Mexico, state and federal governments pay for most
public school costs (79 percent in San Juan County), and more
than one-fourth of the Navajo children attend federal (Bureau
of Indian Affairs) schools. The Indian Health Service handles
the other functions named above. See Morrison-Knudsen Company.
Navano New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-
Knudsen, 1975, p. 111-16.
316
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TABLE 7-28:
FISCAL IMPACTS ON NAVAJO TRIBAL GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Year
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1990
1995
2000
New Capital
Investment
Each Year
1.13
.48
.45
.62
.68
.82
1.13
.76
.75
.69
.60
.38
.64
Operating
Costs Above
1975 Levels
.43
.62
.79
1.03
1.29
1.60
2.03
2.32
2.61
2.87
4.05
4.80
5.66
New Coal
Royalties^
0
0
1.43
1.43
2.86
2.86
2.86
5.96
5.96
9.05
11.91
11.91
16.67
Surplus
(Deficit)
(1.56)
(1.10)
.19
(0.22)
.89
.44
(0.30)
2.88
2.60
5.49
7.26
6.73
10.37
If rate is 39.7 cents per ton.
The remaining functions should require $337 per capita for
capital costsl and $129 per capita for annual operations.2 Com-
bining these data with the projected population increases,
tribal finances would develop as shown in Table 7-28. The Tribe
faces deficits at most times until 1983, when the second mine
begins operations.3 Thereafter, royalties are more than ade-
quate, yielding surpluses of up to $10 million per year. (Finan-
cial alternatives are discussed below in the political impacts
sections and in Chapter 14.)
Off the reservation, local governments will likely rely
primarily on residential and commercial property taxes, sales
tax, and utility fees to obtain revenue from the energy develop-
ments. San Juan County's 1973 tax rolls showed non-corporate
THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development
Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Develop-
ment and Land Use Study. Denver: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The
Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 429 and 432.
Note that the population estimates include the irrigation
project, but the revenue estimates do not.
317
-------
TABLE 7-29:
PROJECTED ADDITIONAL UTILITY FEES AND
PROPERTY TAXES, ANGLO COMMUNITIES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Source
Property tax, state
Property tax, local
Utility fees
1980
.12
.46
1.13
1985
.28
1.10
2.72
1990
.47
1.85
4.55
1995
.55
2.17
5.36
2000
.72
2.85
7.03
valuations of $3,030 per capita (1975 prices).1 Applying this
factor to the prevailing Farmington mill Ievies2 and adding the
current average utility bill ($216 per capita per year),3 poten-
tial municipal revenues are shown in Table 7-29.
Sales and income taxes depend primarily on the aggregate of
new income. Based on the projected distributions of household
income and current New Mexico tax rates,4 an average of 4.4 per-
cent of new personal income will be due the state in income tax.
Assuming further, that five-eighths of personal income will be
spent off the reservation, and that 56 percent of that will be
on items subject to sales tax, income-related taxes can be sum-
marized as in Table 7-30.
Finally, the state of New Mexico taxes coal mining and
electrical production directly. "Privilege" and "severance"
taxes total 1.25 percent of the gross value of the coal (less
some minor deductions). Electricity generation is taxed at a
Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the
Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center
Area. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State University, Center
for Business Services, 1974, p. 28.
2
New Mexico, Department of Development, Economic Develop-
ment Division, and University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business
and Economic Research. Community Profile; Farmington, 1974-75.
Santa Fe, N.M.: New Mexico, Department of Development, 1974.
Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cost Burden,
Problems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Com-
munities of the West. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975,
Table 17.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The
^Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Table 435.
318
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TABLE 7-30: PROJECTED ADDITIONAL INCOME AND SALES TAXES
(millions of J.975 dollars)
Source
Personal income
Taxable sales
State share,
sales tax (4%)
Local share/
sales tax (2%)
State income tax
1980
51.8
18.1
.72
.36
2.28
1985
107.3
37.5
1.5
.75
4.76
1990
165
57.7
2.31
1.15
7.18
1995
197.6
69.2
2.77
1.38
8.75
2000
235.8
82.5
3.3
1.65
10.48
rate of 0.4 mill per kilowatt-hour. Based on scenario assump-
tions, these taxes should result in the revenues shown in Table
7-31.
The various revenues calculated above can be regrouped by
level of government, as shown in Table 7-32, and then compared
with new expenditures (Tables 7-28 and 7-33).
The simplest comparison to be made involves state govern-
ment. A realistic assumption is that the state's costs will rise
in proportion to population. These costs amounted to $621 per
TABLE 7-31: PROJECTED TAX REVENUES, PRIVILEGE
AND SEVERANCE TAXES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Source
Coal
Electricity
1980
0.8
0.0
1985
2.9
7.8
1990
4.2
7.8
1995
4.7
7.8
2000
7.3
7.8
The current law has been challenged as an unconstitu-
tional interference with interstate commerce. See Bronder,
Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining; Review with Recommenda-
tions .
Denver, Colo.:
Policy Office, 1976.
Western Governors' Regional Energy
319
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TABLE 7-32:
PROJECTED TOTAL REVENUES FROM ALL SOURCES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Location
Reservation
County, Municipal
State
Total: All state and
local
1980
2.9
2.0
3.9
8.8
1985
9.0
4.6
17.2
30.8
1990
11.9
7.6
22.0
41.4
1995
11.9
8.9
24.6
45.4
2000
16.7
11.5
29.6
57.8
capita in fiscal 1973.1 Applying a scale-up for inflation and
San Juan County population growth, the following cumulative cost
increase is projected for the state: $12.6 million in 1980,
$28.8 million in 1985, $43.3 million in 1990, $51.1 million in
1995, and $63.0 million in 2000.
These figures suggest that new state expenditures will be
about twice as large as new revenues. However, not all of the
TABLE 7-33;
SUMMARY OF ADDITIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMENTAL
EXPENDITURES AND REVENUES, OFF-RESERVATION
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Category
Expenditure
Capitals
Operating
Annual expenditure
if no borrowing '
Annual expenditure,
with borrowing*3
Revenue
1980
12.4
.9
3.4
2.1
2
1985
17.3
2.1
5.6
4.9
4.6
1990
20.1
3.5
7.5
8.2
7.6
1995
8.8
4.1
5.9
9.6
8.9
2000
18.2
5.4
9
12.6
11.5
aTotal for 5-year period ending at specified date.
Current operating costs paid "as you go" plus all pre-
vious capital costs amortized over 20 years at 7-percent
interest.
University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research. New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975. Albuquerque,
N.M.: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research, 1975, p. 61.
320
-------
county's new people will come from out of state.1 People who
move about within the state will not cause any appreciable
change in state government requirements. Although very diffi-
cult to forecast, at least half the new people should come from
instate. If this is the case, the state government will experi-
ence very little net fiscal effect from these developments.
However, the state, and its government, would grow in absolute
size about 3 percent.
Using basic data from a recent western planning study,^
capital costs for local government are estimated to be $2,360
per capita for county and municipal governments off the reser-
vation; using New Mexico's average figures for local expendi-
tures, these governments will also need $166 per person per year „
for operating costs. Combining these data with the projected
population increases, additional local governmental expenditures
are shown in Table 7-33. The previously tabulated revenue
figures are included for comparison.
On a "pay as you go" basis of financing, local government
faces a negative fiscal impact (new expenditures exceeding new
revenues) until about 1990, after which the fiscal impact turns
positive. In consideration of that long-term prospect, the
municipalities may decide to borrow the portion for capital
expenditures. After taking interest costs into account, that
method is seen to result in slight but consistent deficits,
growing to about $1.1 million per year by the end of the century.
Finally, the federal government is more involved fiscally
in this scenario than in the others because of the large Indian
population. Federal commitments undertake the expense and/or
administration of sanitation, health, education and other func-
tions. Moreover, the Department of Interior has a responsibility
to oversee mineral lease terms and other major actions of the
Tribal Council.
7.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts
Changes in the Navajo culture and lifestyle may be consid-
erable during the next 25 years because of increased agricul-
tural activities as well as energy development. Navajos tradi-
tionally emphasize sharing and communal possession (as opposed
This has been the case for workers on the San Juan
Generating Plant project. See Mountain West Research. Con-
struction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, B.C.: Old
West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 8-17.
2
THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development
Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Develop-
ment and Land Use Study. Denver: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.
321
-------
to personal ownership of property) and harmony with nature and
the land (as opposed to modern agricultural and industrial
activities).1 Development will result in challenges to these
traditional attitudes and values, and conflicts will probably
develop between the tribal government and locals.2 The Burnham
chapter's rejection of the proposed gasification-coal mining
operations in the Burnham area is an example of this.3
Most Navajos seem to dislike urban living. For example,
the growth of Shiprock as a relatively major settlement on the
reservation occurred simultaneously with a large increase in
drinking, automobile accidents, and child abuse.4 Energy devel-
opment is likely to bring even greater changes in family struc-
tures and daily schedules than urbanization. However, the
availability of job opportunities on the reservation should be
favored by most Navajos who prefer work locally rather than off
the reservation.5
Some benefits from development are certain, such as increases
in income and purchasing power and the consequent capabilities
of Navajos to buy or build modern homes. However, the increase
in the Navajo population in San Juan County is certain to take
place more rapidly than the provision of such things as medical
care, housing, and other social services. The current gap
between medical needs and available care, already a major prob-
lem for the Navajos, will probably widen as population increases.
Some practices of the Navajos seem to contradict this
description; for example, overgrazing is common.
2
New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural
Economics and Agricultural Business. Socio-Economic Impact on
Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal Resources.
Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico State University, Department of
Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, 1975, pp. 217-
222; and Goodman, James M. "Some Observations on the Navajo
Sense of Place." Unpublished paper, University of Oklahoma,
Department of Geography, 1975; and Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socio-
economic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in
the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N.M.: New Mexico
State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, pp, 39-45.
o
Ibid., pp. 435-436. This was not a consensus decision.
However, it is indicative of a tribal split.
4
Zickefoose. Impact of Highway Construction in Shiprock
Area.
Ruffing, Lorraine T. "Navajo Economic Development Subject
to Cultural Constraints." Economic Development and Cultural
Change, Vol. 24 (April 1976), pp. 611-21.
322
-------
Roads, utilities, and retail establishment may also lag behind
the population growth.
Quality-of-life effects on Farmington and the rest of the
county are expected to be minor in comparison with those on the
Navajo. During the oil and gas boom in the 1950's, Farmington1s
population grew more than 600 percent in 10 years. The expected
rate of increase in coming years will be small by comparison.
Although rapid growth has resulted in some service lags, notably
in housing, Farmington1s urban services and retail mix generally
make it a better environment for its residents than smaller
towns with the same problems but fewer amenities.
As for health services, the San Juan County Hospital is
being expanded and remodeled to triple the 97-bed capacity
(including specialized beds) of 1973. Consequently, health care
should be less of a problem in the future. Among western cities,
Farmington is well-equipped to handle the impacts of energy
developments largely because of its size and infrastructure.
Typical boomtown problems are not as likely to occur in Farming-
ton, as they are in smaller, less developed localities.
Increases in both Indian and non-Indian populations within
the county will increase contact between the two groups. Rela-
tions are likely to become strained, with increased conflict
between Indians and non-Indians and between the Tribal Council
and other governments.
7.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
As noted earlier, disagreements between the Navajo Tribal
Council, local chapters, and individuals regarding the level of
economic activity already exist. These are likely to continue,
and perhaps even to intensify, as energy development becomes
more extensive. For example, a confrontation over Navajo
negotiation rights may occur, although the Navajos should be
able to resolve their differences with the federal government
more easily than some other tribes.
Navajos will receive increased revenues from industrial
operations on their land, but the specific quantities and
sources of those revenues depend on the tribe's priorities and
the extent of the projects it pursues. Existing royalty rates
are to be renegotiated by the Navajo Tax Commission because the
tribe now believes that it did not receive fair treatment in the
past. New contracts negotiated with prospective developers will
provide more benefits to the tribes, not only in increased roy-
alty rates but in such areas as training and jobs for Navajos.
In some ways the tribe's income needs are greater than
those of many local governments. For example, road-building
presents a particular problem because the Tribal Council is not
323
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recognized as a local government for various federal cost-sharing
programs.1 On the other hand, the federal government directly
provides some services/ such as health care.
Participation in tribal affairs and government by local
Navajo chapters and individuals has increased with increased
mining and industrial development on the reservation. Opposi-
tion to Anglo developments on Navajo land and the Tribal Coun-
cil's nontraditional policies on such issues could have serious
effects on Navajo community spirit in the San Juan County area.
Contrasts between the poor, traditional Burnham area and more
modernized Shiprock are great. However, residents of both areas
have opposed non-Navajo exploitation of Navajo lands.2
The increasing importance of Farmington as the center of
economic and other activities can be expected to continue. Most
of the city's revenue comes from city-operated utilities,
including electricity, water, and solid waste treatment opera-
tions. The city also benefits from growth outside boundaries
because it provides water to Shiprock and a number of unincorpo-
rated towns in the Farmington/Shiprock corridor. Property taxes
are its smallest source of revenue. The sales tax and utility
revenues are likely to increase as the county's population
increases. However, major capital improvements will be needed
for adequate development of water and sewage systems. Police
and fire protection also need to be improved.3
As noted in the population impact analysis, the demand for
housing in San Juan County will probably double by 1985, with
off-reservation needs greatest in Farmington and Aztec. Assis-
tance for these and other communities, particularly during the
short-term, will necessarily have to come from other levels of
government. Pressure will likely be exerted on the state to
provide ways of making more money available to traditional
lending institutions for home mortgage loans. Although New
Mexico presently does not have an administrative division of
U.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation; An
American Colony. Washington, B.C.: Commission on Civil Rights,
1975, p. 19.
o
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.
Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cost Burden,
Problems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Commun-
ities of the West. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Inte-
rior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. iv-4 to IV-13.
324
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housing to administer fiscal programs to assist in the development
of low or moderate income housing in rural areas, the state does
provide limited aid through other state agencies.1 Rapid energy
development in the area may cause expansion of these adminis-
trative activities since eligibility for funds from the federal
government's "Community Development Block Grant Program" requires
that a housing plan for assisting low- or moderate-income per-
sons must be implemented by states requesting such assistance.
The state also has a housing finance agency, the Mortgage
Finance Agency, whose purpose is to assist in securing mortgage
funds for traditional lending institutions.
Due to the lack of a comprehensive countywide zoning plan,
certain types of strip development in the San Juan Valley west
of Farmington along U.S. 550 and on other limited private lands
in the county are expected to continue.2 Mobile homes, in par-
ticular, are likely to proliferate in the area, both on and off
the reservation lands. Such development could result in unde-
sirable impacts since the state does not now provide design
criteria or standards for mobile home parks (except indirectly
through health codes). Even if more effectively planned, the
development of large parks for mobile homes (especially in
remote areas) can lead to problems for local and county govern-
ments with regard to their ability to provide essential public
services, regulate activities, control land use, and enforce
regulations and standards.3
7.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts
The 1975 population of San Juan County will more than
double because of the energy and agricultural development pro-
posed in the Navajo/Farmington scenario. The largest increases
are expected among the Navajo in the reservation portion of the
Rapp, Donald A. Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended: A
Comparative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the
Governors. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy
Policy Office, 1976, pp. 20-22.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, p.
3-84.
The state recently reported problems of enforcement of
solid waste rules and regulations, indicating this was primarily
because small communities lacked the necessary capital for imple-
menting required technologies and because of a significant lack
of funds at the state level. Rapp. Western Boomtowns, page 28.
325
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county. The urban areas of the county (such as Farmington,
Aztec, Shiprock, and a new town near Burnham) will attract much
of the new population. Most of the secondary employment growth
will be in Farmington, bringing its population to more than
40,000 by the year 2000. The largest increases in the demand for
housing and schools will also be on the Navajo Reservation.
As employment opportunities and incomes improve, the life-
style of many Navajos will generally change from a dispersed
rural existence to a more settled and affluent one. The current
rural distribution represents the highest rural population den-
sity in the nation. New provisions for modern housing with
plumbing and kitchens will greatly affect the Navajo quality of
life, and this is a major impetus for Navajo support of the con-
cept of a new town in the Burnham area.1
Public services, especially health care, water, and sewers,
will be among the greatest needs both on and off the reservation.
Coordination between the tribe, local Anglo governments, and the
federal government will become important within the county so
that the quality of growth can be controlled. The tribe itself
must derive virtually all its new revenues from coal royalties.2
The above analysis has shown that a royalty rate of 40 cents per
ton would ultimately provide net surpluses of more than $10
million per year. However, deficits may be experienced as late
as 1982. Local Anglo governments similarly can expect sur-
pluses eventually (late 1980's) but deficits in the short run.
In its analyses of the impacts reported in this section,
the S&PP-Radian research team has had to rely on incomplete
secondary data. As mentioned in the introduction to this sec-
tion, field work currently under way is intended to provide
better data and to fill in some of the gaps which currently
exist. Further analyses of social, economic, and political
impacts should provide more concise, in-depth results as data
from this field work become available.
7.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
7.5.1 Introduction
The area considered for ecological impacts in the Navajo/
Farmington scenario is bounded on the west by the Utah and
Arizona borders and on the north by the San Juan National Forest.
The study area extends eastward as far as the Chama River and
Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility
Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975.
o
Some net income should be derived from the irrigation pro-
ject, but this cannot be estimated at present.
326
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southward to the Chaco Canyon.1 Elevations range from 5,000 feet
over much of the desert to 9,000 feet in the mountain areas.
Energy development at Navajo/Farmington will take place in
a desert environment. As noted earlier, the average annual rain-
fall is 6-8 inches in most of the area and up to 10 inches at
higher elevations. Limited precipitation, coupled with excessive
grazing, are the major factors controlling the composition and
productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem.
7.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
The coal fields being developed at Navajo/Farmington lie in
a broad expanse of desert. Table 7-34 summarizes plant and
animals characteristic of the biological communities found in the
scenario area. Vegetation south of the San Juan River is very
sparse desert grass and shrubland, with species composition
reflecting the slight saltiness of much of the soil. Indian and
non-Indian ranchers are a major influence on this ecosystem. For
example, livestock grazing on the Navajo Reservation has removed
most of the plant cover, and much of the topsoil has been carried
away by erosion.
i
The scarcity of water in the area also limits animal popu-
lation. The fauna is typified by a variety of desert-adapted
rodents, lizards, and songbirds.2 several birds of prey are found in
the area. Foxes, coyotes, and badgers constitute the bulk of
the mammalian predators. Except for small numbers of antelope
using the more productive grass and shrublands northeast of
Farmington, there are few game animals in the area. Rare or
endangered species include the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, and
black-footed ferret.
The desert is bounded on the north by irrigated croplands,
natural marshlands, and riparian woods found in the San Juan
River floodplain. In addition to a relatively diverse and
abundant assemblage of mammals and reptiles, this zone of well-
watered vegetation supports a wide variety of birds, both
This area includes most of the present and potential influ-
ences of human populations living in the Farmington area and
encompasses the ranges of migratory game animals.
2
The San Juan Valley lies in the Central Flyway and provides
habitat for winter migratory waterfowl and spring breeding
populations.
327
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TABLE 7-34: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO
Community Type
Characteristic
Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Desert
Grassland-Shrub
Blue grama
Galleta grass
Indian ricegrass
Alkali sacaton
Russian thistle
Shadscale
Mormon tea
Ord's kangaroo rat
Silky pocket mouse
Spotted ground squirrel
Whitetailed prairie dog
Collared lizard
Horned lark
Coyote
Antelope
Pinyon-Juniper
Woodland
Pinyon pine
Utah juniper
Curl-leaf mountain
mahogany
Cliff rose
Gambel oak
Barbary sheep
Mule deer
Cliff chipmunk
Pinyon mouse
Gambel's quail
Pinyon jay
Riparian
Indian rice grass
Rabbitbrush
Tamarisk
Willows
Cottonwood
Elm
House mouse
Western harvest mouse
Porcupine
Desert cottontail
Red fox
Great blue heron
Mule deer
Mid-elevation
Conifer Forests
Ponderosa pine
Blue spruce
Douglas fir
Aspen
Mountain maple
Alder
Oceanspray
Gambel oak
Mule deer
Elk
Turkey
Chickadee
Cooper's hawk
Band-tailed pigeon
Pigmy nuthatch
Subalpine
Conifer Forests
Corkbark fir
Subalpine fir
Engelmann spruce
Aspen
Mountain maple
Box myrtle
Snowberry
Mule deer
Elk
Mountain goat
Bighorn sheep
Beaver
Marmot
Marten
Blue grouse
Gray jay
328
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resident and migratory. For example, the waterfowl 'habitat of
the San Juan Valley is of regional significance.1
The foothills to the north and east are pinyon-juniper wood-
land with some scrub oak and a variety of grasses and forbs.
Greater rainfall in these areas makes the foothills more pro-
ductive than the desert grass and shrublands. Consequently, the
fauna ia more diverse and abundant there, especially the bird
life, which finds a broad spectrum of food and habitats within
this type of vegetation. These foothills are also important
areas for deer, especially in winter.
Above the pinyon-juniper zone and more distant from Farm-
ington lie coniferous forests consisting primarily of ponderosa
pine and Douglas fir. This vegetation supports a diverse fauna
distinct from that of the pinyon-juniper zone. For example,
beaver inhabit most of the mountain streams, and bald eagles
winter in this area. Game animals include turkey, as well as
deer and elk during the winter.
The highest forest type is dominated by corkbark fir and
Engelmann spruce. Alpine meadows occur above the timberline.
Big game animals use these high forests and meadows as summer
range.
The quality of the aquatic habitat in the San Juan River is
influenced by the Navajo Reservoir, constructed in 1962, which
is located about 45 miles upstream from Farmington. Cold water
discharged from the lower layers of the reservoir controls stream
conditions 15-18 miles below the dam.2 Beyond this distance the
river assumes a more typical desert character, becoming warmer
and silty. The colder waters support a trout fishery, and a
limited warm-water fishery is located near Farmington, Below
Farmington, many non-game fishes occur; however, the water is
too turbid for game fishes. Other streams in the area are
primarily intermittent and while they support short-lived
invertebrate and plant populations, they probably do not
contain fish.
The mineral cycles of arid desert land in San Juan County
are "slowed down" relative to many temperate grasslands and
U.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal
Task Force. Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H: Report of the
Biota Work Group. Springfield, Va.: National Technical infor-
mation Service, 1972. PB-232 104, p. 26-30.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico; Draft Environ-
mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, p.. 2-84.
329
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forests. Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are
confined to the upper soil layers, due to limited leaching, and
this may separate them from the plant roots.1 Also microbial
decomposition of litter and wood is limited to the short periods
of adequate soil moisture following rainstorms.2 However, the
principal factor limiting vegetative production is usually mois-
ture rather than nutrients.3
7.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
The air, water,- population, and social impacts described
earlier affect the ecological changes that may occur. The lar-
gest non-energy development affecting the ecosystem is the
Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP), which began operation in
1976.4 Following this initial phase, the NIIP will add about
Working in the Curlew Valley in northern Utah, Jurinak,
J.J., and R.A. Griffin. Factors Affecting the Movement and
Distribution of Anions in Desert Soils, US/IMP Desert Biome
Research Memo 72-38. 1972, found the majority of available
phosphorus in the upper 15 centimeters (cm) of soil and Skujing,
J. Nitrogen Dynamics in Desert Soils; I, Nitrification, US/IBP
Desert Biome Research Memo 72-40. 1972, "demonstrated that only
the top three cm layers of these soils take a significantly
active part in nitrogen turnover", with "occasionally significant
activity" found in the 15 to 20 cm layer.
2
Tiedemann, A.R., and J.O. Klemmedson. "Nutrient Availa-
bility in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite (Prosopis
•juliflora) Trees and Adj acent Open Areas." Soil Science Society
of America Proceedings, Vol. 37 (January-February 1973), pp.
107-11 found nitrogen largely limiting production when adequate
water was supplied to desert grassland species, along with sulfur
and phosphorus to some extent.
The production of the vegetation is low. The gross pri-
mary productivity of the several vegetation types found in the
area is estimated to be about 1.7x106 kilocalories per hectare
per year, which is almost an order to magnitude less than pro-
ductivity at the other scenario locations (except for Kaiparo-
wits) of this study. Productivity is chiefly limited by rain-
fall, and coverage values for the sparse vegetation range from
about 5 to 20 percent.
4
The system will consist of a main open canal and three
laterals, with water delivered to the fields by sprinkler sys-
tems. Possible crops are corn and sugar beets, and several crops
a year are feasible. The Animas-LaPlata Project, a Bureau of
Reclamation program of reservoirs and irrigated agriculture in
two river valleys, is roughly one-seventh the size of the Navajo
Indian Irrigation Project and will use Animas River water, which
will be returned to the San Juan through the LaPlata River.
330
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10,000 acres to the system each year until it reaches its
planned limit of 96,630 acres in 1986. During the 1975-1980
period, the projected energy development includes construction
of a 250 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) mine-mouth
Lurgi gasification plant and its associated access road, pipe-
line connection, and water line. Ancillary facilities, including
improvements to existing roads and highways on and near the
Navajo Reservation, will also be developed. Table 7-35 shows
habitat losses over the entire study period. As indicated in the
previous section, this development will increase the population
of the non-reservation portion of San Juan County by 4,600 and
the reservation population by 7,900.
The remaining energy facilities of the Navajo/Farmington
scenario will be constructed during the 1980-1990 period. These
include a 3,000 megawatt-electric mine-mouth power plant in 1985
and a 250-MMscfd Synthane plant in 1990. In addition to the
coal mines to supply these plants, ancillary facilities to be
built during this period include water and gas lines and a single
right-of-way for the extra-high voltage transmission lines. A
network of hard-surfaced roads surrounding the energy complex
and irrigation lands should also be completed.
TABLE 7-35: DESERT LAND CONSUMPTION,
NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO
(acres)
Period
1975-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
Post-2000
Cumulative Total
Grand Total
Facilities
Siting
1,560
4,570
2,300
8,430
260,260
NIIP
4,000
192,630
196,630
Mining
55,200
55,200
NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation Project.
331
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Impacts during the 1990-2000 decade accrue from the
continued expansion of the three surface mines and operation of
the gasification plants and power plant. A Synthoil lique-
faction plant is to be constructed and on-line by 2000, including a
surface coal mine as well as water and syncrude pipelines. This
decade will see the population stabilize at a new level reflecting
the activities of the four energy-related facilities. Popula-
tion.in the year 2000 is expected to have grown to 125,400 from
its original 1975 level, with 70,900 living on the reservation
and 54,500 living off it as described in Section 7.4.
7.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
Most of the early impacts of the scenario will be a conse-
quence of construction activities. At the same time, expansion
of the NIIP will begin modifying the ecological baseline.
About 1,560 acres of desert vegetation will be permanently
lost to facility and access road construction by 1980. These
lands are currently used for grazing, primarily by sheep. An
average of 365 acres of forage is required to produce one cow
with calf or five sheep per year. Because actual Navajo
stocking rates are often three times the recommended rate, the
forage required to produce up to 12 cows with calves or 60 sheep
per year may be lost.
Impacts on wildlife at the Lurgi construction site itself
will be comparatively minor. The larger, more mobile animals,
such as badgers and horned larks, will be driven away by the
activity. Many of the smaller species with restricted movement
patterns, such as the pocket mouse or kangaroo rat, will be
killed directly. For the most part, the species affected are
widespread throughout the entire desert, and the habitat
affected by construction activity is neither unique nor dis-
tinctive. The cliffs along the Chaco River, however, consti-
tute important nesting habitat for the area's birds of prey,
particularly the golden eagle and redtail hawk. The water line
feeding the Lurgi plant will be constructed along the rim of
the Chaco wash, causing birds of prey to abandon their nests if
the disturbance coincides with the nesting period. Once the
water line is in place, some of the birds could be expected to
return, but original nesting density would probably not be restored.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navaio Mine by Utah International Inc.. New
Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, paae
2-131.
332
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An increase in poaching of game animals and shooting of
nongame species has been observed widely throughout the western
states during periods of construction and mineral exploration.
Poaching in northern New Mexico is already extensive, in some
places equalling legal kill levels, according to a recent study
in the Guadalupe Mountains by the New Mexico Department of Game
and Fish.1 Antelope and deer are the species most likely to
suffer from extensive poaching. The nesting birds of prey in
the Chaco wash are especially vulnerable to shooting as a con-
sequence of waterline construction.
B. Impacts to 1990
During the second scenario decade, the construction-related
effects experienced before 1980 will be intensified. In addi-
tion, the secondary impacts of increased population will become
more pervasive and significant.
Agricultural impacts in this decade are primarily losses of
grazing lands. About 4,570 acres of desert grassland are des-
troyed by facilities construction. The forage production lost as
a result could sustain as many as 40 cows with calves or 200
sheep per year. Cumulative change of land use to irrigated
agriculture by the NIIP will total 196,630 acres when the project
is completed in 1986. Assuming that all of this area is no
longer grazed, up to 1,620 cows with calves or 8,080 sheep would
not be produced. By comparison, the number of cows and calves
in San Juan county in 1974 totaled 23,805 while sheep totaled
42,692.2
Actual habitat disruption by construction is, as indicated
above, of minimal ecological significance within the area being
studied. However, the additional increase in game poaching and
illegal shooting of nongame could cause noticeable declines in
Poaching differs from legal hunting in its impact on game
populations by being indiscriminate with respect to age, sex,
and season. By removing pregnant females and nonbreeding young,
it can exert a significant impact on the ability of the popula-
tion to maintain an adequate base of breeding adults. Poaching
not only harms game populations directly, it reduces the number
of surplus animals which may be legally taken. Without license
revenues, management and patrol programs designed to protect the
herds are difficult to finance. The New Mexico Department of
Game and Pish therefore views poaching as one of their most
significant problems.
2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, San Juan County. New
Mexico. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976.
333
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wildlife populations by 1990.1 The most vulnerable big game
populations are the deer (Deer Management Area 10) and the
antelope located in the foothills southeast of Farmington. The
declining deer populations are nonmigratory and their range is
particularly accessible by vehicle on oil and gas exploration
trails. The antelope herd is already declining due to harrass-
ment and illegal harvest, and could be virtually eliminated by
1990.
The impact of the scenario in increased demand for back-
country types of recreation will begin to be felt by 1990.
Initially, much of this demand will focus on the San Juan Moun-
tains, particularly the newly designated San Juan Wilderness
area and the adjacent Rio Grande Wilderness. The San Juan
Forest staff has indicated that use permits may be used to limit
access in 4-5 years. With demand for recreational areas, adja-
cent foothills and mid-elevation forests will be used to a
greater degree.2 Vegetation along stream banks, lakes, and in
meadows at high altitudes may deteriorate due to the effects of
camping, horses, and foot traffic.3 other impacts might include:
the disturbance and subsequent redistribution of elk, especially
on calving grounds; fragmentation of key deer ranges by recreational
Poaching would normally be associated with peak construc-
tion employment. In this scenario, however, laborers who migrate
to the area to work on one project may remain there awaiting the
beginning of the next. Many of these people may be unemployed
at least part of the time between projects and may poach game
for meat.
2
These areas are scenically attractive, dotted with Indian
ruins, and often easily accessible on old trails remaining from
the era of gas and oil exploration. Foothill lands controlled
by the Ute Mountain and Southern Ute Reservations are, however,
essentially closed to dispersed recreation by tribal attitude
and policy. Most of the recreational pressure from the Farming-
ton area is likely to concentrate in the foothills of the San
Juan National Forest in Colorado and in the highlands east of
Farmington, including the Carson National Forest.
The San Juan National Forest presently has rules restricting
camping within a specified distance of certain high-altitude
lakes and streams. High meadows are summer range for both deer
and elk, and support distinctive populations of small verte-
brates and insects of both scientific and aesthetic interest.
Delicate alpine flora can be greatly reduced in diversity or
destroyed after a few years of trampling.
334
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development on private lands?! harrassment of deer and other
wildlife by heavy off-road vehicle (ORV) use in the hills east
of Farmington, especially in winter;2 and local erosion.
Expanding urban development will also begin to produce
noticeable impacts by 1990. Strip development along the San
Juan River will fragment riparian habitat. While some species
of ducks, shorebirds, and songbirds will lose some habitat due
to this development, the loss will be compensated for, in part,
by the NIIP. Species such as the great blue heron, which depend
heavily on fish and other aquatic fauna, may decline. Feral3 dogs,
already a problem, will increase in numbers and disturb deer
wintering in the uplands adjacent to the San Juan River or in the
valley itself. Finally, heavy ORV use within roughly 20 miles
of concentrations of human populations will deteriorate some
terrain. Even without development of a new town at Burnham,
some clustering of dwellings in the area may be expected because
of its location relative to the NIIP and the energy developments.
Difficulties in procuring funds for adequately updating
municipal sewage facilities may result in the direct discharge
of most of the treated sewage generated by the growing urban
populations during this decade. Especially during late-summer
periods of low flow, the added nutrients and biochemical oxygen
demand carried in sewage treatment effluent, coupled with agri-
cultural runoff, could cause serious problems of algal growth
and - lowered dissolved oxygen from Farmington to below Shiprock.
If treatment facilities are improved during the second half of
the decade these effects will diminish.
The demand for legitimate hunting, especially for big game,
will also increase as construction-related populations grow.
Hunting pressure on deer is already high especially in the
This could be particularly significant west of Durango,
parallel to U.S. 160 from Durango to Cortez, and in the Animas
River valley below the Purgatory ski area. However, Colorado's
land-use laws provide for county approval of such development,
which may afford a measure of control.
2Assuming a total of 28,000 new families by 1990 and one
off-road vehicle for each four families, yields an estimate of
7,000 such vehicles. By 2000, the total is 8,750. These could
exert very significant impacts on nearby foothill habitats if
uncontrolled.
o
Feral dogs are defined as domesticated canines which have
returned to a wild state or animals produced in the wild by
parents that were once domesticated.
335
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foothills near Farmington.l Anticipated increases in hunting
combined with present declines in the deep population from poor
reproduction will reduce the success of hunting.
Game animals on Navajo lands are subject to shooting that
is controlled more by Indian social custom than by state laws and
management. Game populations suffer from year-round or uncon-
trolled harvest, as well as from habitat destruction by heavy
grazing from domestic animals. Changes in wildlife use on reser-
vation lands from new Indian towns or changed population distri-
butions are not expected.
The expansion of irrigated agriculture during this period
will begin to establish a trend toward replacement of the desert
fauna with species typical of agricultural areas. The limiting
factors will become the availability of food and cover. Water-
fowl may benefit from the habitat provided by surface canals
adjacent to croplands, especially where grains are grown. Desert
rodent species may be replaced by those commonly associated with
croplands and which consequently have a higher probability of
contact with man. Plague is endemic in northwest New Mexico,
and as human and rodent populations grow, the probability of
cases of human plague may increase.
C. Impacts to 2000
During this decade, mines will continue to expand, affecting
the largest area as described in Section 7.7.5. The Synthoil
liquefaction plant site and oil line will remove 2,300 acres of
desert vegetation. The forage produced on this acreage would
support as many as 20 cows with calves or 100 sheep per year,
assuming that the entire area is currently grazed. The major
cumulative habitat losses of the Navajo scenario will take place
in an area of desert bounded by the San Juan River, New Mexico
Highway 44, and the Chaco Wash.
By the year 2000, the withdrawal of water from the San Juan
Basin will have risen by 226,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr)
for the NIIP, 67,040 to 78,960 acre-ft/yr for the new energy
facilities, and about 15,350 acre-ft/yr for the increased popu-
lation. Most of this water will be diverted directly from the
Navajo Reservoir.2 The net effect may be to decrease flows of
cold water downstream. Although the storage project maintains a
Between 1970 and 1973, hunters using Deer Management Area
10 (which includes almost all the New Mexico deer habitat in this
scenario) increased from 8,159 to 12,600. Concurrently, hunter
success dropped from 24.9 percent to 11.4 percent.
2
Personal Communication. Staff of Bureau of Reclamation,
Farmington Office, January 1977.
336
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minimum flow of 400 cubic feet per second (cfs) for 'downstream
use, lowering of potential flows closer to this minimum will
have few beneficial, and many adverse, consequences, including:
limiting the already excellent cold water fishery for rainbow
and brown trout below Navajo Reservoir; some deposition of silt
and sand bars downstream which will reduce the stability of
bottom habitats, including fish spawning and nesting sites?
warming of waters and reduction of total amount of aquatic
habitat in areas of depleted flow (effects of flow reduction will
be much more significant than increase in dissolved solids; and
reduction in marsh vegetation within the floodplain, reducing
waterfowl nesting habitat.
Wastewaters impounded at the four plant sites could attract
desert animals and waterfowl. The impact of these wastewaters
on wildlife is dependent on accessibility and their composition.
The wastes of the coal conversion plants are of particular inter-
est because they may contain various organic compounds known or
suspected to be carcinogenic (see Section 12.6). Evaporation
ponds are likely to contain high concentrations of chemicals and
be unpalatable and odoriferous. In addition, sublethal or
chronic effects would probably not affect a sufficient number of
animals to be significant on a regional scale.
As reported previously in the air impact analysis, ground
level sulfur dioxide (SO2) and, nitrogen oxide concentrations
from the proposed facilities will generally be at least an order
of magnitude below the federal standards even under the worst
conditions. The highest 3-hour average is calculated as 459
micrograms per liter (vg/m^)(0.18 parts per million), about one-
third the secondary ambient standard. Further, these concen-
trations over most croplands will be much lower, on the order of
10 ug/m3 or less. At this level, SO2 has not been found to pro-
duce either acute or chronic damage to the type of crops to be
grown in the irrigation project. The effects of air-dispersed
trace elements, including large amounts of fluorine, cadmium,
arsenic, and mercury, cannot be predicted. However, under simi-
lar circumstances, concentrations of these elements (with the
exception of fluorine) were not predicted to reach toxic concen-
trations in terrestrial environments,l Fluorine concentrations,
with all facilities on-line, may approach cumulative damage
levels in sensitive plants of 1 part per billion over extended
periods of time, depending on stack gas scrubbing method.2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaipar-
pwits Pro-ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land
Management, 1976, p. 111-60-64.
2BLM. FEIS; Kaiparowits> p. 111-65.
337
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Local changes in the mineral cycles at Farmington are
likely to occur in two major categories: physical changes in
nutrient pools, and changes in the biological sector of the
nutrient cycles. Physical changes will be due primarily to
erosion (particularly from the wind) of surface soil and litter.
These impacts will arise from construction, livestock over-
grazing, and recreational activities, especially ORV use and
surface mining. Another physical change will be the minimization
of stream flow variations as a result of operational practices of
the Navajo Reservoir. This will reduce the deposition of soil
in riparian habitats which now occurs following high-flow periods.
The impact of biological changes in the mineral cycles
through vegetation loss will be limited spatially because the
desert is divided into "microwatersheds" with an individual
shrub at the center of each small catchment area.1 Changes from
energy development will operate on the level of the individual
microwatersheds rather than on some larger unit such as a stream
watershed or plant community.
Other potential impacts on the biological portion of mineral
cycling arise from S02 emissions. A considerable amount of
sulfur will be emitted into the air and may eventually be depos-
ited on land. The impact of this additional sulfur is not known,
but it may be expected to accumulate in the ecosystem, eventually
reacting with biological components and beginning to cycle within
the systems.2 However, given the anticipated level of scenario
development, it is unlikely that sufficient sulfate will enter
the soil to induce an overall acidification problem, especially
since many soils are slightly alkaline.
See, for example, Stark, N. Distillation—Condensation of
Water and Nutrient Movement in a Desert Ecosystem,US/IBP Desert
Biome Research Memo 73-44. 1973; Charley, J.L. "The Role of
Shrubs in Nutrient Cycling," in McKell, C.M., J.P. Blaisdell,
and J.R. Goodin, eds. Wildland Shrubs—Their Biology and Utili-
zation, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-1.
Odgen, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1972; Garcia-
Moya, E., and C.M. McKell. "Contribution of Shrubs to the
Nitrogen Economy of a Desert-Wash Plant Community." Ecology,
Vol. 51 (Winter 1970), pp. 81-87.
2
See Tiedemann, A.R., and J.O. Klemmedson. "Nutrient
Availability in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite (Prosopis
iuliflora) Trees and Adjacent Open Areas." Soil Science Society
of America Proceedings, Vol. 37 (January-February 1973), pp.
107-11; and Tucker, T.C., and R.L. Websterman. Gaseous Losses
of Nitrogen from Soil of Semi-Arid Regions, US/IBP Desert Biome
Research Memo 73-37. 1973.
338
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The Navajo Reservoir is currently drawn down about 45 feet
per year. By the year 2000, it will be drawn down 95 feet per
year to supply 226,000 acre-ft/yr for the NIIP, 67-040-78,960
acre-ft/yr for the new energy facilities, and 15,350 acre-ft/yr
for the increased population. Energy facilities will withdraw
water between Farmington and Shiprock.
The impacts of these water withdrawals on the reservoir will
be minor. Game fish populations now in the reservoir are expected to
continue to reproduce, although shallow water habitat important
to spawning and juvenile survival will be seasonally reduced as
the lake level drops. Algae and aquatic macrophytes, if fluc-
tuating lake levels allow their growth, will be stranded along
the shoreline as the water recedes. After they have decayed and
the lake level again rises, a decrease in dissolved oxygen could
occur in areas where vegetative growth is permitted.
About 209 cfs will be annually returned to the San Juan
River above Shiprock at Chaco Wash from seasonal irrigation run-
off and artificial aquifers created-by the NIIP. This return will
contain high total dissolved solids concentrations and quantities
of pesticides and fertilizers. Though base flows at Navajo Dam
should maintain flow at Shiprock, the dilution of this irrigation
return could become critical to water quality at and below Ship-
rock during periods of low flow.l The ability of the river to
dilute the concentrated irrigation runoff could be enhanced by
almost 20 percent through the use of once-through cooling pro-
cesses at the energy facilities.2
D, Impacts After 2000
A total of 55,200 acres will be disturbed by surface mining.
Environmental factors which will limit the reestablishment of
vegetation are: limited rainfall and high evaporation, erodi-
bility and salinity of much of the overburden material, general
Low flow of record at Shiprock since the construction of
Navajo Dam is 68 cubic feet per second.
2
About 75 percent of the total water required for energy
production is lost to evaporation in forced-draft cooling towers.
If once-through cooling is employed, this water can be returned
to the San Juan above Chaco Wash and Shiprock. The increased
dilution of 20 percent reflects changes in volume and disregards
losses from the river due to evaporation or seepage; it similarly
does not reflect periods of increased rainfall or other seasonal
variation.
339
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absence of good topsoil, and uncontrolled grazing by large
livestock populations on the Navajo Reservation.
Overgrazing by Navajo livestock is a critical factor.
Reseeding efforts at Black Mesa and on the Navajo Reservation
have failed several times/ largely because livestock destroyed
the early growth.1 Alternative techniques, such as planting
seedlings, may substantially increase the success of revegeta-
tion, but at present no formal plans have been developed to
initiate a seedling program. Current practices at two surface
mines in the four corners area involve application of up to 12
inches of water for a period of 2 years in an effort to re-establish
growth of both native and non-native species. Invasion of non-
palatable species (Russian thistle) has occurred, and some
species common to wetter locations have been established, but
successful long-term maintainance of these species does not
appear likely. Data for a period of longer than two years are
not available, The overall effect of surface mining will be
extensive removal of desert habitat from existing vegetation and
use patterns. The full impact of these changes will not occur
until after 2000.
The forage produced in a year on the acres lost to mining
would support as many as 150 cows and their calves or 760 sheep,
if the Bureau of Indian Affairs recommended stocking rates are
used. If this range is stocked at current rates, the forage
produced would support up to 450 cows and their calves or 2,270
sheep.
Attempts by ranchers to compensate for these forage losses
by moving sheep or cows to other, unmined lands will probably be
unsuccessful. Overgrazing on Navajo lands is already heavy, and
increased grazing pressure on remaining rangelands may decrease
forage production to the point where livestock carrying capaci-
ties are significantly lower than they were prior to energy
development.
Table 7-36 illustrates the impact of cumulative grazing
losses through the lifetime of the scenario's industrial facili-
ties, excluding losses to urbanization and roads. The present
64:36 ratio of sheep to cattle reported for San Juan County was
used to estimate a realistic combined total of sheep and cattle
Thames, J.L., and T.R. Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation in
the Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern
Arizona," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land
Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.:
University of North Dakota Press, 1975.
340
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TABLE 7-36: POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION FOREGONE: NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO3
Acres Lost
1975-1980 1,560
1980-1990 4,570
1990-2000, 2,300
Post-2000 55,200
Cumulative Total 63,630
c
1974 Inventory
San Juan County
Loss as % of
1974 Inventory
Loss to NIIPd 196,630
Loss as % of
1974 Inventory
Animal Equivalents
BIA Recommended Stocking
Cows/Calves
3
9
5
112
129
23,805
0.5%
401
1.7
Sheep
6
17
8
200
231
42,692
0.5%
712
1.7%
Maximum Actual Stocking (1975)
Cows/Calves
9
27
15
336
387
1.6%
1,203
5
Sheep
18
51
24
600
693
1.6%
2,136
5
Included transmission, pipeline, and water line rights-of-way.
Assumes failure of reclamation efforts.
CU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture;
Preliminary Report, San Juan County, New Mexico. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1976.
Includes land "withdrawn for agribusiness use".
-------
production foregone.1 This permits comparison with actual 1974
livestock inventories. All loss calculations are conservative
because it has been assumed that all acres affected are grazed
and that all have a relatively high grazing capacity for desert
grasslands. As the table shows, neither sheep and cattle losses
are potentially important, even if the present excessive stocking
rate can be sustained over the time period of interest. Reduc-
tion in grazing area due to NIIP crop production are roughly
triple those of the energy facilities.
7.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts
Most of the impacts associated with the Navajo scenario are
continuous through time, rather than being localized within a
specific period. Although they will begin with the first year
of the scenario, noticeable regional effects will probably not
become evident until after 1985. The most important of these
impacts—judged on the basis of geographic extent, potential for
altering the size and/or stability of populations of important
species, or likelihood of resulting in a change in the structure
or function of a large portion of an ecosystem—are summarized
below. Their expected cumulative impact on selected animals is
presented in Table 7-37.
Major ecological impacts are ranked into classes in Table
7-38. These classes are based on the extent of habitat and
number of species affected by a given action.
Class A impacts such as habitat removal or fragmentation,
the replacement of the desert ecosystem by cultivated croplands,
and little or no revegetation on mined areas, affect several
species over a wide area and are considered the most severe.
Class B impacts locally affect fewer species and include illegal
shooting and poaching as well as the potential loss of small
herds of antelope. Impacts that are likely to affect the fewest
animals and are extremely localized (such as the consumption of
impounded wastewaters) are ranked as Class C.
Assuming that climatic factors, poor soils, and overgrazing
will combine to preclude effective reclamation of strip mines,
the combined effect of habitat loss from energy developments will
be to cause an overall decline in the water- or food-limited
desert fauna and to replace it by a cover-limited fauna typical
of farmlands. Total animal abundance will probably increase due
to the impact of the irrigation project, in spite of the opposite
trend associated with energy development.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, San Juan County, New
Mexico. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976.
342
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TABLE 7-37: FORECAST OF STATUS OF SELECTED SPECIES
Sig 6*M
£*«
Ilk
Antelope
Bighorn Shoep
(Colorado)
(Jane Bird*
Waterfowl
Pheasant, Quail
Chukar
Turkey
Deves
Rare Endangered or
Threatened
American peregrine
Falcon
1980
Uttl* change from present trend.
Little change.
Continued decline.
continued transplants by
Colorado Division of Wildlife;
nuobera increase.
Increase in breeding population*.
Increase in numbers.
Little change.
Possible local increases in
populations in San Juan national
Forest.
Slight local increase around
irrigation projects.
Stable to slight decline.
1990
Accelerated decline of herds east
of Fanning ton; beginning of decline
along river valleys, and along U.S.
160 in 'Colorado.
Passible slight decline in overall
numbers.
Probable extirpation around
Farming ton.
Numbers cotna under control of
hunting and stabilize.
Increasing trend peaks and slows*
shifts from San Juan. Anifflas,
LaPlata Villay wetlands to
irrigated areas.
Increasing trend peaks and levels
off.
Extirpation or severe reduction of
population near Farmington; no major
changes elsewhere.
Little change.
Moderate increase around irrigation
pro j ects .
Severe decline is likely; probable
loss of nesting birds on the Colorado
side.
2000
'Continued decline of eastern herd, with
moderate to serious loss of hunting
potential. Moderate decrease in number!
of deer along the San Juan, slight to
moderate decline of populations wintering
in hills along U.S. 160.
Possible decline in overall numbers.
Redistribution away froa areas of regular
. human use.
Slight decline from preceding peak, but
net increase over 1975 base levels.
Continued overall moderate population
levels throughout irrigated areas.
Little change.
Probable equilibration at low nutobers
of wintering birds.
LO
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TABLE 7-37: (Continued)
Rare Endangered or
Threatened (Continued)
Undetermined)
Black-Footed Ferret
Colorado Squawfitfa
Spotted Bat
Prairie Falcon
Osprey
Ferruginous Hawk
Burroving Owl
HujnpbaeX Sucker
Ecological Indicator*
Riparian Habitat
Beavar
Bald Eagle
Irrigated Landscape Specie*
Owert Crass land Specie*
1990
tittle change.
Little change.
Little ehango.
Little eXange.
Decline.
Little change.
Slight decline.
Slight decline.
Little change*
Stable or slight decline.
Stable.
Moderate increase in population.
Moderate decline la nutobere.
1990
San Juan Valley north of reservoir.
If present, likely to extirpated.
JT£ present below Shiprock* likely
to decline severely or become extinct.
If present, likely to1 be reduced or
extirpated.
Probable loss of nesting birds in
coal area.
Decline of nesting populations.
Strong decline and possible local
extirpation.
Strong cfecline.
If present below shiprock, likely to
decline atrongly or become extinct.
Moderate decline in number.
Moderate decline in nesting; wintering
populations decline slightly.
Continued increase, stabilized after
1986.
Accelerated decline especially of
breeding raptors.
3000
era o er ng
Continued decline, becoming locally
infrequent.
Probable equilibration at low numbers.
Continued decline in number.
Continued low nesting populations, «ad
slight to moderate decline in wintering
populations.
Stable overall trend.
Continued decline at lowered rate.
OJ
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TABLE 7-38:
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING
ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Impact
Category
Class A
Class B
Class C
Uncertain
1975-80
Direct habitat removal
Habitat fragmentation
by NIIP & development
Shift in ecosystem:
desert - cultivated
cropland
Poaching of Big Game
Shooting of non-game
species
Introduction of
pesticides,
fertilizers
1980-90
Direct habitat removal
Habitat fragmentation
by NIIP & development
Shift in ecosystem:
desert - cultivated
cropland
Grazing losses (NIIP)
Loss of endangered
species
Lowered flows in
San Juan
Illegal shooting
• and poaching
Loss of Antelope
Increase in recre-
ation demands ; ORV ' s
Feral Dogs
Consumption of
impounded wastewater
by wildlife
Increased incidence
of plague
Introduction of
pesticides,
fertilizers
1990-2000+
Direct habitat removal
Unsuccessful revegetation
of mine sites
Grazing losses (NIIP
and Mines)
Loss of endangered
species
Lowered flows in
San Juan
Intensified overgrazing
by Navajo on remaining
rangelands
Increase in recreation
demands ; ORV ' s
Feral Dogs
Consumption of impounded
wastewater by wildlife
Increased incidence
of plague
Introduction of
pesticides,
fertilizers
NIIP •= Northern Indian Irrigation Project
ORV * off-road vehicle
Two groups of species will serve as barometers or indicators
of this change. Species adapted to the desert (which are expected to
decline because of habitat loss) include Gunnison's prairie dog,
Ord's kangaroo rat, the silky pocket mouse, and white-throated
wood rat. Decline in these, particularly the prairie dog, will
affect other species adapted to living among and preying on them.
For example, the western burrowing owl, ferruginous hawk, and
badger may be expected to exhibit sharp declines. In addition
to a decrease in predators, fragmentation of open areas will
contribute to the decline of gray and kit foxes. The NIIP will
provide a food base for increased numbers of other rodents and
birds, some of which may become pests (such as the pocket gopher,
345
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which may increase where root crops [such as sugar beets] are
grown). Gophers, mice, and voles are now found in the area and
are expected to become common as the expansion of agriculture
proceeds. Some of these rodent populations could become reser-
voirs for plague. Swallows and various small farmland sparrows
will also increase; although the horned lark will still be a
common resident, it will no longer be the dominant species.
Coincident with this increase in smaller wildlife, there
will probably be an expansion of the population of several pred-
ators or omnivores adapted to farmland situations. Many of the
hawks already breeding in the area could increase in numbers as
a result of the increased prey base in the irrigated lands, pro-
vided that adequate nesting sites are present. These include the
marsh hawk, kestrel, redtail and roughleg. Red fox and striped
skunk will probably also increase.
Toxic substances discharged into on-site holding ponds can-
not be ruled out as hazards to some wildlife, but the possibility
of their constituting a threat on a regionwide scale appears to
be small. The ecological impact of pesticide and fertilizer use
by the NIIP cannot be predicted.
Withdrawals from the San Juan River for irrigation and
energy use will reduce flow to minimum requirements during dry
periods. This reduction will lower both abundance and diversity
in the aquatic ecosystem. Floodplain marshes, important to
waterfowl, may be reduced in extent.
The most widespread of the scenario's impacts, with the-
greatest potential for reducing the abundance and diversity of
native plant and animal life, are those arising from the growth
of San Juan County's population from 61,700 to 125,400 over the
study period. These impacts include fragmentation of riparian
and foothill habitat by residential and commercial development,
which will place additional stress on deer, waterfowl, and other
water-related avifauna. In particular, antelope near Farmington
are expected to be lost or decline to a few individuals. Vanda-
lism will tend to reduce diversity and abundance of birds of
prey near town and within the area of the energy developments.
In addition, domestic and feral dogs may become a significant
stress on both small and large animals adjacent to the San Juan
Valley. A major impact of increased population will be to
increase erosion losses and thus reduce vegetative cover.
Several endangered species may be affected by energy devel-
opment. The black-footed ferret is known to exist near the
scenario area but not within it. If present, they will probably
be eliminated. Three of seven active peregrine falcon nests in
the Rockies are located near Durango close to an area receiving
increasing use by campers and recreationists. The reason for
their continued decline is uncertain; if they are disturbed by
346
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hikers, they may desert these nesting sites. At least one bald
eagle nest is known in the San Juan Valley above the Navajo
Reservoir; heavier recreational use of this area could result in
its abandonment. The Colorado squawfish and the humpback sucker
(recently removed from "threatened" status) have been reported
from the San Juan River. If present below Shiprock, they could
be eliminated locally by flow depletion.
Several of the significant impacts described above can be
affected by changes in technologies. If mined areas are planted
with native seedlings following a complete replacement of top
soils, reclamation will have a better chance to succeed, although
long-term stability is still an issue. In addition, salt depo-
sition from cooling tower drift would be eliminated by the use of
a cooling lake (although such a lake would almost be as large as
the area affected by cooling tower drift), by the use of dry
cooling towers, or by once-through cooling processes. A decrease
in water consumption would benefit the riparian habitats along
the San Juan River. In addition, controls over access to remote
habitats, especially by vehicle, would minimize the adverse
effects to the ecosystem from the enlarged population of 125,400.
However, such restrictions on use would substantially reduce the
aesthetic and recreational values of the ecosystem.
Analysis of these impacts has been hampered by lack of ade-
quate data, inherent variability in ecological structure and
function, and the limited predictive theory relating change to
potential future effects. Significant limitations exist in
defining the long-term pattern of success with recreation in
these desert environments and in predicting the effect on vege-
tation and animals from chronic exposure to low levels of cri-
teria pollutants and trace elements. Some of these problems are
the focus of current research at the Environmental Monitoring
and Support Laboratory at Las Vegas and multiagency monitoring
programs on land reclamation and water quality.
7.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
Major benefits resulting from the hypothetical developments
in the Navajo/Farmington scenario are the production of 500 mil-
lion cubic feet of gas and 100,000 barrels of oil daily and
3,000 megawatts of electric power. These benefits will accrue
primarily to people outside the area, but locally substantial
increases in per-capita income, trade, and other economic devel-
opment will take place principally to the Navajo Nation.
These economic changes and the social and political impacts
originate primarily from the population increase of 125,400 by
2000. However, supplying adequate housing, sanitation, water,
and other services will be a major problem. Although major
economic benefits will accrue to the region, median income of
the reservation will be only slightly affected. Benefits to the
347
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Navajo Nation depend on employment patterns, taxation, and
royalties. Off-the-reservation towns will have limited funds to
supply the services demanded of them.
The magnitude of these impacts are highly dependent on where
and when development takes place. If facilities were located off
the reservation, the benefits would largely affect non-Indians,
and adequate financing could be provided for non-Indian towns.
If facilities were developed at a slower pace or with fewer gaps
between construction activities, fewer oscillations and require-
ments for rapid growth in schools and government services would
be required.
Due to meteorological conditions, the plumes from the facil-
ities are rarely expected to interact and thus create significant
violations of ambient air quality standards.^ Individually, only
the Synthoil plant greatly exceeds standards due to the low-level
fugitive hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. In selected instances, the
facilities exceed both Class I and Class II significant deterior-
ation increments. The ambient air quality standards are cur-
rently exceeded for both particulates and HC at Farmington, and
the new population and facilities can be expected to exacerbate
this problem. In addition, the plumes of the plants will be
visible from any part of the area and will typically reduce visi-
bility about 10 percent, with much greater reduction under
adverse meteorological conditions.
Technological variables affecting impacts include improved
emission controls or reduced plant size. Both these alterna-
tives, if carried out at an adequate operational level, would
reduce the number of potential standards violations. In addi-
tion, coal beneficiation steps that would remove inorganic sul-
fur would also reduce conflicts with sulfur standards.
The potential new water consumption of 102,700 acre-feet
per year within the New Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin
meets or exceeds that allotted to New Mexico. Conflicts over
use are likely to increase, both between users in the basin and
those presently using downstream flow. This use would signifi-
cantly affect the quality of the surface water (especially in
such characteristics as total dissolved solids, temperature, and
the ability of the water to transport sediment) and other fea-
tures of stream hydrology. Groundwater quality could also be
affected by leaching chemicals from the settling ponds, and
erosion of the pond dikes could affect surface waters.
Exceptions may occur during downslope wind conditions.
New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency Staff, Personal
Communication, November 23, 1976.
348
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Dry or wet/dry cooling significantly decreases water
consumption but would both increase costs and decrease plant
efficiency. Among other changes, this would result in some
expansion of mining, air emissions, and a slightly larger popu-
lation. Changes in cooling methods could affect up to 13 per-
cent of available water in the Basin. Other technological
changes could be significant, including the use of treated
sewage for plant cooling (as is done in some southwest areas).
The use of combinations of cooling towers and evaporation ponds
could also reduce some water use, especially during the winter.
Several significant ecological effects are likely to occur
from the combined impacts of surface mining, land use, new popu-
lation, and the use of water. Water withdrawal from the San
Juan will adversely affect the aquatic and riparian ecosystems.
Due to the poor soils and limited water, successful reclamation
will be difficult. Over the life span of the plants, this is
likely to affect approximately 55,000 acres of land. The new
population will also fragment habitat, damage vegetation, and
contribute to the erosion of soils, as well as stressing wild-
life populations through intentional or inadvertent harrassment.
Thus, certain species are likely to be eliminated or signifi-
cantly reduced on a local basis. The combined impact of mining
and desert irrigation will favor an animal community in the
desert portion of the scenario area which is more typical of
farmlands or grasslands than of the original arid desert shrub
ecosystem. The effect of toxic air and water emissions from
energy facilities is difficult to predict, but there is no evi-
dence at present that their effects will be significant.
Several of these impacts could be significantly affected by
reclamation technologies or by extensive social controls. By
using seedling transplants, adequate water and fertilization,
reclamation might have a better short-term chance of success.
However, the costs of this practice would be significant and
would divert water from other beneficial uses. Controls over
human use of the area would minimize attrition of habitat but
would require an extensive use of permits for recreational use
and zoning. Provisions for habitat control in the river valley
and habitat management programs on farmlands can also affect
vegetation and animal abundance. These policies are also dis-
cussed in Chapters 13 and 14.
349
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CHAPTER 8
THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENTS AT THE RIFLE AREA
8.1 INTRODUCTION
The Rifle scenario is located in Rio Blanco and Garfield
Counties in northwestern Colorado (Figure 8-1) .l As shown in Figure
8-2, the hypothetical developments include crude oil and coal
and oil shale mining, conversion, and transportation. Two TOSCO
II (the Oil Shale Corporation) oil shale retorting facilities of
50,000-bbl/day (barrels per day) and 100,000-bbl/day capacity are
supplied by underground mines; pipelines transport the upgraded
oil to refineries outside the region. A 3.4 million tons per
year room-and-pillar coal mine supplies a 1,000-MWe (megawatts-
electric) power plant that provides electricity to local users and
the regional power grid via 500-kV (kilovolt) transmission lines.
The 400-well oil field produces 50,000 bbl/day, which is trans-
ported via pipeline to refineries outside the region. The con-
struction schedule and selected technical details of these facil-
ities are presented in Table 8-1.
Landownership in the area is predominantly federal, with
state and private ownership clustered along streams in valleys.
The area population has been increasing in the last decade, but
unemployment is low. Employment is highest in service industries,
but retail trade, construction, and agriculture are also major
employers. The area enjoys some tourist trade as it is on the
most commonly used route to Aspen and Vail. The quality of life
While this hypothetical development may be similar to some
developments proposed by Moon Lake Electric Company, Midland Coal
Company, Blue Mountain Coal, Gulf Oil, Shell Oil, Superior Oil,
American Fuels, Colony Development, Union Oil, Occidental Oil
Shale, Paraho Oil Shale Demonstration, Consolidation Coal, W.R.
Grace and Hanna Mining, Utah International, and others, it must
be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical.
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the
assessment of a particular combination of technologies and
existing conditions. TOSCO II appeared to be a good choice when
an oil shale technology was being selected at the beginning of
the project. In now appears that modified in situ is more likely
to be used and a modified in situ development will be added to
this scenario in the final impact analysis report.
350
-------
UJ
Denver and Rio Grande Western
HWnUHHIIIIHH
Above 10,000 feet
9000-10,000 feet
8000-9000 feet
7000-8000 feet
6000-7000 feet
Below 6000 feet
FIGURE 8-1: LOCATION OF THE RIFLE SCENARIO AREA
-------
iMOFFAT
• Proposed Road
1 Shale Mine
• —• •—• —" =•" » Transmission Line
i mmiii mil iiiiMiniiiii Conveyor
»3%-.. U|
I I
I
I
MESA
mm 18' ' ; iV* '' " -' ^;;^!
I
FIGURE 8-2: ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE RIFLE SCENARIO
-------
TABLE 8-1:
RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED
FACILITIES AT RIFLE
Resources
Coal8 (billions of tons)
Resources 8
Proved Reserves 4
Oil Shale0 (billions of barrels)
Resources 117
Proved Reserves 58
Oil (billions or barrels)
Resources" 10
Technologies
Resource Production
Coal
One underground room-and-
pillar mine utilizing
continuous miners
Oil Shale
Two underground room-and-
pillar mines
Oil
400 wells drilled at the
rate of 100 per year
Conversion
1,000-MWe power plant consist-
ing of two 500-MJe turbine
generators; 341 plant effi-
ciency; 80% efficient limestone
scrubbers, 99% efficient electro-
static precipitator, and wet
forced-draft cooling towers6
One 50,000 bbl/day and. one
100,000 hhl/riay TfWP.O llT o-n
shale facilities with /wet forced-
draft cooling towers
Trans por Cation
Coal
Two conveyor belts from the
mine to the plant
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Oil Shale
Three conveyor belts
Shale Oil
One 20-inch pipeline
Electricity
One line (to regional power grid)
One line (to local power grid)
Character is tic a
Coal
Heat Content" 11,220 Btu's/lb
Moisture 13 %
Volatile Matter 42 7.
Fixed Carbon 53 %
Ash 5 7.
Sulfur 0.6 7,
Facility
Size
3.4 MMtpy
26 MMtpy
51 MMtpy
12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day
500 kw
500 kw
500 bbl/day
100,000 " hbl/day
50,000 bbl/day
26 MMtpy
51 MMtpy
150,000 bbl/day
500 kV
265 kV
Completion
Date
1980
1985
1990
1982
1983
1984
198?
1979
1980
1985
1990
1980
1985
1985
1990
1985
1980
1980
Facility
Serviced
Power pla"nt
Oil shale retort
Oil shale retort
Pipeline
Pipeline
Pipeline
Pipeline
Power plant
Oil well field
Oil shale retort
Oil shale retort
Oil shale retort
Power plant
Power plant
bbl/day = barrels per day
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
kV = kilovolts
kw " kilowatts
MMtpy = million tons per year
MKe = megawatts-electric
"l974 Keystone'Coal Industry Manual. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1974, p. 477, proved
reserves are calculated as 50 percent of the defined resources.
Ctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.K. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Coal
Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract
No. 68-02-1302. Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975.
CNational Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook. U.S. Energy Outlook.
Washington, D.C.: National Petroleum Council, 1972, pp. 207-208, Proved reserves
are calculated as 50 percent of the defined resources.
National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook, Oil and Gas Sub-
committees, Oil and Gas Supply Task Groups. U.S. EuerE;y_Qutlook: Oil and Gas Avail-
ability. Washington, B.C.: National Petroleum Council, 1973.
6Due to format restrictions, this facility was defined as four 250-MWe units for the
calculations of the social/economic impacts.
353
-------
in the area is considered excellent by the residents, and a
larger than normal fraction of the population is of retirement
age.
The terrain is rugged to mountainous, and climate varies
with altitude. Annual precipitation is between 12 and 20 inches,
and annual snowfall is between 60 and 100 inches. The climate is
cool, with only 50 to 120 frost-free days per year. Due to the
absence of pollution sources, air quality is good, although air
stagnation occurs in the valleys.
Biological communities in the Rifle area also vary with altitude.
Valley floors near streambeds are primarily croplands but contain
elder, oak, and willow trees, and a large variety of birds and small
mammals. As the elevation increases, plant and animal species
become more characteristic of mountain areas, moving from pinyon-
juniper to fir and pine at high altitudes with deer and elk, as
well as some black bear. Hunting for deer and elk is a major
activity in the area.
The White and Colorado Rivers and their tributaries are the
principal surface water sources for the area, with numerous
intermittent streams flowing into them. Water quality in the
smaller streams is generally poor, primarily as a result of
irrigation runoff. However, water quality is good in the major
streams. Groundwater is located predominantly in alluvial aqui-
fers which are associated with the surface streams. Groundwater
is also found in a bedrock aquifer associated with the Mahogany
Zone, the richest source of oil shale. Additional site charac-
teristics are shown in Table 8-2 and elaborated in greater detail
as needed in the following sections.
8.2 AIR IMPACTS
8.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Air quality in the Rifle area is currently affected by a
number of air emission sources, the most significant of which is
the Mid-Continent Coal and Coke Company. Measurements of con-
centrations of criteria pollutantsl taken through late 1975 in
the Rifle area indicate that no federal or Colorado ambient air
standards are violated. Based on these measurements, annual
average background levels for all six criteria pollutants have
been estimated in micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m^) as :
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: carbon monoxide, non^methane hydrocarbons,
nitrogen dioxide, oxidants, participates, and s.ulfur dioxide.. The
term "hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to non-methane HC.
354
-------
TABLE 8-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE RIFLE AREA
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
Temperature
Air Stability
Vegetation
4,700-11,000 feet
12-20 inches annually
January mean daily minimum = 7.7°F
July mean daily maximum = 89.4°F
Inversions more frequent in fall
and winter months. Inversions
and air stagnation common in
valleys year-round. Dispersion
conditions better on plateaus.
Elder, oak, and willow near valley
floors. Juniper, fir, and pine
at higher elevations.
Social and Economic3
Land Ownership
Federal
State and Private
Population Density
Income
70 %
30 %
4.1 per square mile
$4,000 per-capita annual
Figures given are the Rio Blanco/Garfield County average.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business,
Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
particulates, 12; sulfur dioxide (S02)/ 2; nitrogen dioxide
(NOj), 5; hydrocarbons (HC), 130; carbon monoxide (CO), 1,000;
and bxidants, 68.1
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be'expected at any particular time. Mea-
surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not
available in the rural7~areas. However, high-background HC levels
have been measured at ,other rural locations in the West and may
occur here. Background CO levels are now assumed to be rela-
tively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the area
are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles.
355
-------
B. Meteorological Conditions
The worst dispersion conditions for the Rifle area are
associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than
5-10 miles per hour) , unchanging wind direction, and, relatively
low mixing depths. These conditions are likely to increase
concentrations of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated
sources.^ since worst-case conditions differ at each site
(largely due to the wide variety of terrain in the Rifle area),
predicted annual average pollutant levels will vary among sites
even if pollutant sources are identical. Meteorological condi-
tions in the area are generally unfavorable for pollution disper-
sion about 31 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction3 and
limited mixing of plumes caused by temperature inversions at the plume
height can be expected to occur regularly.4 Good dispersion
conditions associated with moderate winds and large mixing depths
are expected to occur about 16 percent of the time.
As is the case at most western sites, the potential for
dispersion of pollutants in the Rifle area varies ^considerably
by season and time of day. Fall and winter mornings are most
frequently associated with poor dispersion, due largely to more
persistent high-pressure areas with lower wind speeds and mixing
depths.
8.2.2 Emission Sources
The primary emission sources in the Rifle scenario are a
power plant, two oil shale facilities, supporting mines, and popula-
tion increases. Pollution from energy-related population increases
was estimated from available data on average emissions per person
in several western cities.5 Most mine-related pollution originates
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
2
Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that
emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are
stack emissions.
Plume impact ion occurs when stack plumes run into elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air
conditions.
4
National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected tJ.S.. Cities.
Ashville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975.
Refer to the introduction to Part II for identification of
these cities and references to methods used to model urban meteo-
rological conditions. This scenario models only concentrations
for Rifle and Grand Valley, Colorado.
356
-------
from diesel engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides
(NOx), HC and particulates. Although the mines are underground
and dust suppression techniques are hypothesized in the scenario,
some additional particulates will come from blasting, coal piles,
oil shale crushing, and blowing dust.1
The hypothetical power plant in this scenario has two 500-
MWe (megawatts-electric) boilers, each with its own stack.2 The
plant is'equipped with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) which
removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber which
removes 80 percent of the SC>2 and.40 percent of the NOX. One
75,000-barrel storage tank at the plant, with standard floating
roof construction, will emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.
The power plant and the two oil shale conversion facilities
are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell in the
tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute
and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.3 The circulating
water has a total dissolved solids content of 10,000 parts per
million. This results in a salt emission rate of 21,200 pounds
per year for each cell.
Table 8-3 displays emissions of five criteria pollutants for
each of the three facilities. In each case, most emissions come
from the plants rather than the mines. The largest single con-
tributor to total emissions is the 100,000-bbI/day (barrels/day)
TOSCO II plant for pollutants except CO and NOx/ in which case
the power, plant emits higher levels. The 50,000-bbI/day TOSCO II
plant, while contributing only half as much pollution as the
larger TOSCO .plant, produces more SO2 and far more HC than does
the power plant.
The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency is investigating this question and will be used
to inform further impact analysis.
2
Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 23.6
feet, mass flow rates of,1.57 x 10^ cubic feet per minute, an
exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of
18OOF.
Efficiencies are Radian's estimates of current industrial
practices,
4The power plant has 22 cells, the 100,000-barrels per day
(bbl/day) TOSCO II oil shale plant has 10, and the 50,,000-bbI/day
TOSCO II oil shale plant has 5..
357
-------
TABLE 8-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES
(pounds per hour)
Facilities3
Electrical Generation
(500-MWe)
TOSCO II Plant
(100,000-bbl/day)
TOSCO II Plant
(50,000-bbl/day)
Particulates
185
262
131
S02
972
3,079
1,540
NOX
2,387
1,138
569
HC
66
1,431
715
CO
222
101
50
bbl/day = barrels per day
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
MWe = megawatts-electric
NOx = nitrogen oxides
SO'
sulfur dioxide
^Emissions from these facilities are almost entirely from the plants
because each plant's associated mine is hypothesized to be under-
ground. The power plant is equipped with two 500-MWe boilers. A
detailed description of each facility is contained in the Energy
Resource Development Systems description to be published as a
separate report in 1977.
8.2.3 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
Construction of the hypothetical power plant begins in 1977
and the plant becomes operational in 1980. Pew air quality
impacts are associated with the construction phase of this plant
or with those coming on-line by 1990, although construction
processes may increase wind-blown dust, which currently causes
periodic violations of the federal and state 24-hour ambient
particulate standards.
Table 8-4 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by the power plant. These pollutants
(particulates, SC>2, N02, and HC) are regulated by federal and
Colorado state ambient air quality standards, which are also
shown in Table 8-4. This information shows that the typical
concentrations associated with the plant, when added to existing
background levels, are below federal and state standards. How-
ever, the peak concentrations produced by the plant do violate
federal 3-hour HC standards and Colorado's 24^-hour SC>2 standard.
358
-------
TABLE 8-4:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM A 1,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
particulate
Annual
2 4 -hour
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background
12
2
5
130
Typical
.2
1.3
7
-4
Peak
Plant
.4
30.
2.3
155
530
5.7
33
Meeker
.9
0.1
4.6
23
.2
1.2
Standards13
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Colorado
45
150
15
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
HC = hydrocarbons
NO
i- = nitrogen dioxide
SO,
sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical 1,000-megawatts-electric-power plant. Annual
average background levels are considered to be the best estimate of short-term background levels.
"Pr-imary and secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per
year. Non-significant deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of
relatively clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
°It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NO,. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
Table 8-4 also lists Non-Significant Deterioration (NSD)
standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that
can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with
air quality better than that allowed by ambient air standards).1
Class I standards, intended to protect the cleanest areas such
as national parks, are the most restrictive.2 Peak concentra-
tions from the power plant exceed Class II increments for 24-
hour SC-2 and Class I increments for 24-hour particulates, annual
SC>2, and 3-hour S02.
Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have
to be located far enough from any Class I areas to allow emis-
sions to be diluted by atmospheric mixing prior to reaching such
areas. The distance required for this dilution (which varies by
facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological con-
ditions) in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I
areas. Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations
would require a minimum buffer zone of 13.6 miles between the
hypothesized power plant and any Class I areas boundary.3
Although proposed Class I areas are within 15 miles of the plant
site, the White River National Forest is less than 10 miles to
the east. If this forest was designated a Class I area, the
power plant would violate allowable increments (Figure 8-3).
2. Pollution from Towns
Several small towns, such as Rifle and Grand Valley, are
expected to increase their populations as a result of the energy
development in this scenario. By 1980, the population of Rifle
should increase from 2,500 to 2,950, and Grand Valley should
Non-Significant Deterioration standards apply only to
particulates and sulfur dioxide.
2
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all Non-Significant Deterioration areas Class II and established
a process requiring petitions and public hearings for redesig-
nating areas Class I or Class II. A Class II designation is for
areas which have moderate, well-controlled energy or industrial
development and permits less deterioration than that allowed by
federal secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deteriora-
tion to the level of secondary standards.
Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not
be symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illus-
trated by area windroses which show wind direction patterns
and strengths for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direc-
tion of Non-Significant Deterioration areas from energy facili-
ties will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.
360
-------
to
Q
BanBely
O
miles
10 15
Grand Valley*
mm
Pomtt
Rifle
iSPv"
White River*
FIGURE 8-3: AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE RIFLE SCENARIO
-------
grow from 360 to 700.l These increases will contribute to
increases in pollution concentrations due solely to urban sources.
Table 8-5 shows predicted concentrations of five criteria pollu-
tants for Rifle in 1980. Concentrations are estimated at a
point in the center of the town and at a point 3 miles from the
center.
When concentrations from urban sources are added to back-
ground levels, the federal HC standard is exceeded.2 No other
federal or state standards are approached by the combination of
background and urban sources by 1980.
B. Impacts to 1990
1. Pollution from Facilities
Two new facilities are hypothesized to be constructed by
1990 in the Rifle area. A 50,000-bbI/day TOSCO II oil shale
plant will become operational in 1985, and a 100,000-bbI/day
plant will become operational in 1990. No additional facilities
are planned after 1990. Tables 8-6 and 8-7 show typical and
peak concentrations of the criteria pollutants after these
developments become operational. Typical and peak concentrations
from both the 50,000-bbI/day plant and the 100,000-bbl/day plant
greatly exceed federal ambient standards for HC. Colorado's 24-
hour S02 standard is also violated by peak concentrations from
both plants, and the federal secondary standard for 3-hour S02
is exceeded by the larger oil shale plant. The topography in
the area of the 50,000-bbI/day plant can allow pollutants to
become incorporated in the air flow down Parachute Creek Valley
and cause high levels of HC over Grand Valley.3
These facilities also exceed several allowable increments
for non-significant deterioration. Concentrations from both
plants exceed Class II 24-hour particulate levels. Peak
Refer to Section 8.4.3.
2
Hydrocarbon standards are violated regularly in most urban
areas.
Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal
because they have been (hypothetically) sited several miles
apart and are separated by elevated terrain. If the wind blows
directly from one plant to the other, plumes may interact, How-
ever, concentrations which result are less than those produced
by either plant under worst-case dispersion conditions. Had the
plants been sited closer together, the probability of interac-
tions would increase. Sensitivity analysis of this siting
consideration will be done during the remainder of the study.
362
-------
TABLE 8-5;
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT RIFLE
(micrograms per cubic meter)
U)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
24 -hour
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
N02d
Annual
24 -hour
HC6
3 -hour
CO
8 -hour
1-hour
Concentrations3
Background
/
12
2
5
130
1,100
Mid-Town Point
1980
6
9
3
9
10
9
102
616
1,010
1990C
20
68
10
34
-60
571
1,940
3,170
Rural Point
1980
2
19
1
9
16
4
102
616
1,010
1990C
3
68
2
34
60
8
571
1,940
3,170
Standards
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
1Q, 000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
40,000
Colorado
45
150
15
CO = carbon monoxide HC = hydrocarbons NO- = nitrogen dioxide SO- = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concentra-
tions are taken from Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the
center of town.
"Primary and secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the
public health and welfare, respectively.
°No additional plants after 1990. Air impacts are assumed to stay the same.
It is assumed that 50 percent of nitrogen oxide from urban sources is converted to NO2-
Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 8-6:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM A 50,000 BARRELS PER DAY TOSCO II PLANT
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
3-hour
Concentrations8
Background
12
2
5
130
Typical
3.4
19
93
1,125
Peak
Plant
1.2
48
8.8
39
350
3.5
39,290
Grand Valley
.1
7.4
.3
8.6
13
.2
853
Standardsb
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Colorado
60
150
15
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
CO
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
SO,,
sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical 50,000-barrels per day TOSCO II plant. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimate of short-term background levels.
b" Primary and secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year.
Non-significant deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively
clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to
-------
TABLE 8-7:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM A 100,000 BARRELS PER DAY TOSCO II PLANT
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
2 4 -hour
so2
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
c
Annual
KCd
3-hour
Concentrations''1
Background
12
2
5
Typical
7.5
46
190
8,604
Peak
Plant
1.2
103
11
131
1,901
4.4
52,100
Rio Blanco
.2
1.1
2.3
8
12
.7
9.2
Standards*1
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Colorado
45
150
1-5
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
OJ
HC
hydrocarbons
NO
'„ = nitrogen dioxide
S02 = sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical 100,000-barrels per day TOSCO II plant. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimate of short-term background levels.
"Primary and secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year.
Non-significant deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively
clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
°It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NO-. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
c^irhe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
concentrations from the larger plant exceed Class II increments
for 24-hour and 3-hour SC>2/ and concentrations from both plants
will exceed Class I increments for annual SO2.
These NSD violations would require buffer zones for each
plant. Current EPA regulations would require a 34-mile buffer
zone for the larger plant and a 20-mile buffer zone for the
smaller. Although the Grand Mesa and White River National
Forests are within these zones, they are currently Class II areas
(Figure 8-3) .
2. Pollution from Towns
Rifle's predicted population increase to 6,400 and Grand
Valley's increase to 4,200 will cause concentrations of urban
pollutants to reach the levels shown in Tables 8-5 and 8-8. The
federal HC standard, which will be exceeded by a factor greater
than three, continues to be the only ambient standard violated
in Rifle by 1990. Concentrations over Grand Valley will violate
federal HC standards as well as Colorado's 24-hour particulate
standard. Although the populations of Rifle and Grand Valley
will grow somewhat by the year 2000, the resultant pollution
concentrations are expected to increase less than 5 percent over
1990 values.
8.2.4 Other Air Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been
made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy develop-
ment may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25
years. These categories of potential impacts are sulfates,
oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume
opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging
and icing.•"••
A. Sulfates
Very little is known about sulfate concentrations likely to
result from western energy development. However, one study
suggests that for oil shale retorting, peak conversion rates
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitro-
genous Compounds in the Environment, U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1973.
366
-------
TABLE 8-8:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT GRAND VALLEY, 1990
(micrograms per cubic meter)
U)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
24 -hour
S02
Annual
2 4 -hour
3 -hour
N02C
Annual
3 -hour
CO
8 -hour
1-hour
Concentrations3
Background
12
2
5
130
1,000
Mid-Town Point
11
37
6
20
36
17
301
1,140
1,970
Rural Point
1
37
1
20
36
2
301
1,140
1,870
Standards"
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
40,000
Colorado
45
150
15
CO = carbon monoxide HC = hydrocarbons N02 = nitrogen dioxide SO- = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concen-
trations are taken from Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the
center of town.
"Primary and secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the
public health and welfare, respectively.
clt is assumed that 50 percent of nitrogen oxides from urban sources is converted to NO-.
Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
of S.C>2 to sulfates in plumes is less than 1 percent.
Applying this ratio in the Rifle scenario results in peak sulfate
concentrations of less than 1 ^g/nv3, This level is well below
EPA's suggested danger point of 12 ug/m3 for a 24-hour average.
B. Oxidants
Oxidants (which include such compounds as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) can be
emitted from specific sources or formed in the atmosphere. For
example, oxidants can be formed whenHC combine with NOx^ Too
little is known about the actual conversion processes which form
oxidants to be able to predict concentrations from power plants.
However, the relatively low peak concentrations of HC from the
power plant (33 yg/m3) suggest that an oxidant problem is
unlikely to result from that source alone. An oxidant problem
would more likely result from the combination of background HC
and the NC>2 emitted in the power plant plume.
Based on the Nordsieck study, oxidant levels from the oil
shale facilities are not expected to violate federal oxidant
standards. However, oxidant problems may occur in Rifle and
Grand Valley where federal 3-hour HC standards are exceeded.
Since oxidants may take as much as an hour to form, this problem
will be less when wind conditions move pollutants rapidly away
from the town.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates (those less than 3 microns [p] in diam-
eter) are primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the
Nordsieck, R., et a1. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research
and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975. This study
assumed that sulfur dioxide in the plumes was converted to sulfate at
the rate of 1 percent per hour independent of humidity, clouds, or
photochemically related reaction intensity. Reported results indi-
cate peak sulfate levels ranging from 0.1 to 1.6 percent of the
corresponding peak S02 levels from oil shale retorting. Recent
work in Scandinavia suggests that acid-forming sulfates arriving
in Norway are complex ammonium sulfates formed by a catalytic
and/or photochemical process which varies with the season.
2Ibid.
368
-------
plants. Current information suggests that particulate emissions
controlled by ESP have a mean diameter of less than 5y and uncon-
trolled particulates have a mean diameter of about lOp.2 In
general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the smaller the
mean diameter of the particles remaining. The high efficiency
ESP's (99-percent removal) in this scenario are estimated to
produce fine particulates which account for about 50 percent of
the total particulate concentrations. This percentage also «
applies to the TOSCO II oil shale recovery facilities. Health
effects from fine particulates are discussed in Section 12.6.
D. Long-range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-1.Op in diameter)
is that they reduce! long-range visibility. Particulates sus-
pended in the atmosphere scatter light which reduces the contrast
between air object and its background, eventually below levels
required by the human eye to distinguish the object from the
background.3 Estimates of visual ranges for this scenario are
based on empirical relationships between visual distance and
fine particulate concentrations.4
Visibility in the region of this scenario averages about 60
miles. As the facilities in this scenario become operational,
average visibility will decrease to 59 miles by 1985, 58 miles
by 1990, and 57 miles by 2000. Air stagnation episodes will
cause substantially greater reductions.
Fine particulates produced by atmospheric chemical reac-
tions take long enough to form so they occur long distances from
the plants.
2
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program-to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kalparowits S'team Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California
Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974.
Nitrogen dioxide may also contribute to lower visibility
distances because it is a colored gas (yellow-brown) and is
necessary for the production of photochemical smog.
4Charlson, R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the
Generality of Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concentra-
tion and Light Scatter." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 2 (Sep-
tember 1968), pp. 455-64. Since the model is designed for urban
areas, its use in rural areas yields results that are only
approximate.
369
-------
TABLE 8-9: SALT DEPOSITION RATES
Plant
50,000-bbl/day TOSCO II
100, 000-bbl/day TOSCO II
Power Plant
Average Salt Deposition Rate
(pounds per acre per year)
0-5,600
feeta
5.3
11.0
23.0
5,600-49,000
feet
0.4
0.7
1.6
49,000-147,000
feet
0.03
0.05
0.10
bbl/day = barrels per day
Tiiameter of circles bounding the area subject to the salt deposi-
tion rate.
E. Plume Opacity
Fine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although ESP's will remove enough
particulates for the power plant to meet emission standards, stack ^
plumes would probably still exceed the 20-percent opacity standard.
Thus, plumes will be visible at the stack exit and some distance
downwind. Although no opacity standards exist for oil shale
retort plants, all the stacks for the TOSCO II plants will have
plumes of less than 20-percent opacity. Therefore, the visi-
bility of plumes from oil shale plants should be much less than
those associated with other energy facilities.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
Estimated salt deposition rates from cooling tower drift for
the three facilities in this scenario are shown in Table 8-9.
These rates are relatively low and decrease rapidly beyond 5,600
feet. Some interaction of salt deposition from the plants will
occur. For example, the area midway between the two oil shale
The Federal New Source Performance Standard-for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of par-
ticulates per million British thermal unit' s heat input. The plume
opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly met as the
particulate emissions standard because it would require removal
of 99.9 percent of all plume particulates, which would increase
electrostatic precipitator costs.
370
-------
plants will receive a cumulative total of 1.0 pound per acre per
year. The effect of salt on the area will depend on soil condi-
tions, rainfall, and existing vegetation.
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
Fogging and icing potential in the Rifle area is uncommon
during the spring, summer, and fall when relative humidities are
generally low. During the winter, however, cold moist conditions
are common with an average humidity of 65 percent. Fog occurs
with some regularity during this season especially in areas such
as hilltops and sheltered valleys. Therefore, cooling towers may
cause increases in winter fogs. Since the average temperature is
below freezing from December through February, increases in ice
accumulations are also likely.
8.2.5 Summary
1. Air Quality Impacts
One electrical generation and two oil shale plants are pro-
jected for the Rifle scenario by the year 2000. Federal ambient
standards for 3-hour HC and Colorado standards for 24-hour SOj,
will be exceeded by all three facilities. The 100,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II plant will also violate federal 3-hour S02 standards.
Each of the facilities will violate several NSD allowable
increments. Peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed
Class II increments for 24-hour S02 and Class I increments for
annual and 3-hour S02 and 24-hour particulates. Peak concentra-
tions from each of the two oil shale plants will violate Class
II increments for 24-hour particulates. The larger plant will
violate Class II increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02- All
Class I increments are exceeded by both plants. Because of these
violations, buffer zones would be required between each facility
and any Class I area. The largest zone would be for the 100,000-
bbl/day TOSCO II plant (34 miles), followed by the 50,000-bbl/
day plant (20 miles), and the power plant (13.6 miles).
Population increases in Rifle and Grand Valley will add to
and create pollution problems. By 1990, Colorado's 24-hour S02
and federal 3-hour HC standards will be violated. Several other
categories of air impacts have received only preliminary atten-
tion. Our information to date suggests that oxidant and fine
particulate problems may emerge. Plumes from the stacks at the
power plant may be visible and exceed the 20-percent opacity
standard. Long-range visibility will be reduced from the current
average of 60 miles to about 57 miles by the year 2000.
371
-------
TABLE 8-10:
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL EMISSION CONTROLS
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
NO
X
Annual
Concentration
12
775
2,650
1.2
80
9.5
Standards
Primary
80
365
75
260
100
Secondary
1,300
60
150
100
Colorado
15
45
150
NO = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
2. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plant would vary if
emission control systems with other efficiencies were used.l For
example, Table 8-10 shows maximum SO2» particulate, and NOX concen-
trations which would result if the plant used only enough control
to meet New Source Performance Standards; that is, if the plant
used a 97.3-percent efficient ESP with no S02 removal. This is
in contrast to the hypothetical 99-percent efficient ESP and 80-
percent efficient S02 scrubber postulated in this scenario.
These data show that resulting concentrations would violate
federal and Colorado standards for 24-hour S02 and would exceed
the federal standard for 3-hour
The amounts of particulate and SO2 removal required for each
plant to meet all applicable state and federal ambient standards
and federal NSD increments are shown in Tables 8-11 and 8-12.
This information shows that the necessary S02 removal efficien-
cies would be 92-percent for the power plant, 90-percent for the
100, 000-bb I/day TOSCO II plant, and 67-percent for the 50,000-
bb I/day TOSCO II plant.2
New Source Performance Standards have not yet been written
for oil shale plants.
2
These efficiencies appear technologically feasible. More
attention will be paid to technological feasibility of highly
efficient control systems during the remainder of the project.
372
-------
TABLE 8-11:
REQUIRED EMISSION REMOVAL TO MEET AMBIENT STANDARDSa
(percent)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
so2
Annual
24 -hour
3 -hour
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
Power Plant
Federal
Colorado
92
50,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II
Federal
Colorado
67
100,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II
Federal
32
Colorado
90
bbl/day = barrels per day
S0_ = sulfur dioxide
Removal efficiencies are listed for only those averaging times which would
require additional removal to meet ambient standards. For example, addi-
tional removal is required for the 50,000-bbl/day TOSCO II plant to meet
federal SO- standards.
TABLE 8-12: REQUIRED EMISSION REMOVAL TO MEET CLASS II INCREMENTS'
(percent)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
so2
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
Power Plant
35
50,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II
37
100,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II
24
63
71
bbl/day = barrels per day
S0? = sulfur dioxide
Removal efficiencies are listed for only those averaging times
which would require additional removal to meet ambient standards(
For example, additional removal is required for the 50,000-bbl/
day TOSCO II plant to meet federal S02 standards.
373
-------
TABLE 8-13: PLANT CAPACITY TO ATTAIN AMBIENT STANDARDS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
Power Plant (MWe)
Federal
1,000
1,0.00
1,000
1,000
1,000
Colorado
80
1,000
1,000
TOSCO IIs (bbl/day)
Federal
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
Colorado
16,500
50,000
50,000
TOSCO IIb (bbl/day)
Federal
100,000
100,000
68,000
100,000
100,000
Colorado
10,000
100,000
100,000
bbl/day = barrels per day MWe = megawatts-electric
= sulfur dioxide
a
50,000-bbl/day plant.
3100,000-bbl/day plant
Another alternative is for the plants to reduce total capac-
ity to meet ambient standards and NSD Class II increments. As
shown in Tables 8-13 and 8-14, the power plant could meet all
federal requirements by reducing capacity to 650 MWe but could
not meet Colorado's ambient standards for SC-2 without reducing
TABLE 8-14: PLANT CAPACITY TO ATTAIN CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
so2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Particulate
Annual
24 -hour
Power Plant (MWe) '
1,000
650
1,000
1,000
1,000
TOSCO II3
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
31,500
TOSCO IIb
100,000
76,000
37,000
100,000
29,000
MWe = megawatts-electric
SO,, = sulfur dioxide
a
50,000-barrels per day plant.
b
100,000-barrels per day plant.
374
-------
capacity to 80 MWe.1 The smaller TOSCO plant could meet federal
and state standards by reducing capacity to 10,000 bbl/day.2 In
both cases, the Colorado standards are the most restrictive.
3. Data Availability
Availability and quality of data have limited the impact
analysis reported in this chapter. These factors have primarily
affected estimation of long-range visibility, plume opacity,
oxidant formation, sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of
trace, materials. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation. This includes the effect
of pollutants on visibility.
2. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals. This would improve
estimates of fallout and rainout from plumes.
8.3 WATER IMPACTS
8.3.1 Introduction
Energy resource development facilities in the Rifle scenario
are sited in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The major water
sources will be the White and Colorado Rivers, but groundwater
will also supply a significant part of the water requirements
(see Figure 8-4). In the scenario area, annual rainfall varies
between 11 and 20 inches per year depending on elevation, and
annual snowfall varies between 60 and 100 inches.
This section identifies the sources and uses of water
required for energy development, the residuals that will be pro-
duced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are
likely to result.
8.3.2 Existing Conditions
A. Groundwater
The Rifle area contains both bedrock and alluvial aquifers.
Bedrock aquifers are in the combined Uintah and Green River
This projection assumes concentrations are directly pro-
portional to megawatt output.
2
The larger TOSCO plant would require this much reduction
because its emissions would be more susceptible to plume impac-
tion, given the siting assumptions made in this scenario.
375
-------
MOFFAT
UJ
5
miles
TO"
15
-Water Line and Pumping Station
• •:
FIGURE 8-4: WATER PIPELINES FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE RIFLE SCENARIO
-------
Formations and in the Mesa Verde Group. The Uintah and Green River
aquifers are separated by the Mahogany Zone, the principal source
of oil shale. Since leakage is common through the zone, the two
aquifers behave as if they were parts of the same unit, although
their^water quality differs. The total volume of water stored in
the Uintah and Green River aquifers has been estimated to be
about 25 million acre-feet.1 The flow through the portion
of the aquifers in the Pieeance Creek drainage Basin is estimated
to be about 36 cubic feet per second (cfs).2 Most of the
recharge takes, place in outcrops of the aquifers, and groundwater
flow is toward the center of the Piceance Basin. Discharge is
mostly from springs and into alluvial aquifers. Wells penetrat-
ing both aquifers should yield as much as 1,000 gallons per
minute (gpm). The total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the
upper aquifer is generally less than 1,000 milligrams per liter
(mg/&) , but the TDS of water in the lower aquifer is as high as
40,000 mg/£.3
Aquifers in the Mesa Verde Group are important to the sce-
nario area because this group is the projected source of coal for
the power plant. Very little information is available on ground-
water in the Mesa Verde Group. These aquifers, many of which are
perched, occur in discontinuous beds of sandstone that are inter-
spersed in the shales Of the formation. Records4 indicate that
wells in the Mesa Verde prdduce less than 50 gpm in the scenario
region, but no data are available on water quality for the Mesa
Verde aquifers.
The alluvial aquifers associated with the Colorado and White
Rivers are recharged by their respective rivers and, therefore,
are highly reliable and productive sources of water. The hydrol-
ogy is much the same for the Parachute and Piceance Creek aqui-
fers; however, their productivity is relatively low, and current
use is limited to providing water for livestock. Water quality
in the two creek aquifers is relatively good with TDS of less
than 1000 mg/£ in the upper reaches. Because of decreases in the
quality of recharge from the bedrock aquifers, groundwater
"Sj.S., Department of the Interior. Final Environmental State-
ment for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Vol. I, p. 11-141.
2Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale
Development on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 34.
3
Ibid, p. 40*
Colorado La/id Use Commission. Colorado Land Use Map Folio.
Denver, Colo.: Colorado Land Use Commission, 1974.
377
-------
quality in the alluvium becomes progressively worse downstream,
eventually reaching 3,000 mg/£ TDS.
B. Surface Water
As shown in Figure 8-4, the White and Colorado Rivers are
the major surface-water supply sources for energy development in
the Rifle scenario. Flow allocations in both of these rivers are
governed by the Colorado River Compact,1 the Upper Colorado River
Basin Compact,2 and the Mexico Treaty of 19443 as well as the
laws of the State of Colorado. Colorado's share of the flow in
the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is determined with ref-
erence to the natural flow of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry,
Arizona. This flow has been estimated from 5.25 million to 6.3
million acre-ft/yr; the most widely accepted estimate is that^
made by the Department of Interior at 5.8 million acre-ft/yr.
Using that value, Colorado's share of the flow is about 3 million
acre-ft/yr. Near Rifle, the Colorado River has an average flow
of 2.8 million acre-ft/yr, and the White River has 455,000 acre-
ft/yr, so that these two rivers can provide Colorado's share of
the UCRB apportionment.
Present uses of UCRB water in Colorado are shown in Table
8-15. The main use is for irrigation, but a significant portion
is diverted to municipal use in the Denver area. Although the
average annual supply greatly exceeds the estimated water use in
the Rifle area, legal commitments and in-stream needs account for
all but about 10 percent of the remaining portion.
Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat.
1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.
3000 (1928).
2
Upper Col-orado River Basin Compact of 1948, 63 Stat. 31
(1949) .
3
Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico
Respecting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana
Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219
(1945) , Treaty Series No.. 994.
4
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974,
P- 11.
378
-------
TABLE 8-15:
WATER USE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
PORTION OF THE STATE OF COLORADO
(in thousands of acre-feet)a
Average Annual Water Supply
Inflow to region''3
Undepleted water yield
Total Water Supply
Estimated 1975 Water Use
Estimated exports
Irrigation
Municipal and industrial
including rural
Minerals
Thermal electric
Recreation fish and wildlife
Other
Consumptive conveyance losses
Reservoir evaporation ,
Total depletions'^
Green River
Subbasin
237
1,776
2,031
0
89
2
4
10
3
5
22
2
137
Upper Main
Stem Subbasin
0
6,738
6,738
614°
779
14
8
4
8
11
175
37
1,650
aU.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the
Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government Print-
ing Office, 1975, p. 42.
T\
Reflects the effects of depletions upstream of state lines.
°Includes intersubbasin transfer to San Juan River and inter-
basin transfer to the Denver, Colorado area.
^Includes Colorado's remaining share of mainstem reservoir
evaporation.
/
Water quality in the White and Colorado Rivers is shown in
Table 8-16, Also shown are water quality data for Piceance and
Parachute creeks, both of which may be impacted by energy development,
Water quality is generally good in the White and Colorado Rivers
and in Parachute Creek, but TDS and hardness levels are high in
Piceance Creek, primarily due to bicarbonates and sodium.
379
-------
TABLE 8-16: WATER QUALITY AND FLOW FOR RIFLE VICINITY
location
Drainage Area
(square miles)
Maximum Flow
(cfs)
Minimum Flow
(cfs)
Average Flow (cfs and
(acre-ft/yr).
Dissolved Silica
(mg/i.)
Calcium
(mg/i)
Magnesium
(mg/i)
Sodium
Chloride
(mg/1)
Bicarbonate
(mg/t)
Sulfate
(rig/i)
Nitrate
(ng/l)
Total Dissolved Solids
(ng/D
Hardness
(ng/t)
Suspended Sediment
pH Units
white River8
near
Meeker
762"
6,370s
1736
622
450,600
10.4
40.7
8.5
6.6
9.5
113
45. 5
.13
181
134
663
8.
Colorado Siverb
above
Grand Valley
4,558f
30,100*
286*
I,95s!o00f
.
64
13
94
119
• 144
129
1.8
454
..
_
8
Piceance Creekc
at
White River
629
407
0.50
19
13,980
14
49
82
742
153
1,644
• 414
.4
2,301
459
681
8.3
Parachute Creek'5
near
Grand Valley
1419
470*
O.O9
19
13,7709
.
66.3
13.48
98.48
118.5
143.8
129.1
' 1.8
701
^
_
• 8
Drinking Water
Standard
»°h'
250h
101
500h
6.5-8.5
6.5-8.5h
Typicaf
Boiler
Feedwater
0.10
0.03
.0.24
0.96
' <0.01
0.14
<10
<0.10
8. 8-10. 8
cfs » cubic feet per second
- milligrams per liter
pH - acidity/alkalinity
•mailer than
"water quality data are flow weighted averages computed from available data, U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological
Survey. 1974 Water Resources Data for Colorado. Part 2i Water Quality Records. Washington, D.C.t Government Print-
ing Office, 1975.
bWater quality data from Colony Development Operation, Atlantic Richfield Company. An Environmental Impact Analysis for
a Shale Oil Complex at Parachute Creekr Colorado, Part 13 Plant Complex and Service Corridor. Denver, Colo.: Atlantic
Richfield. 1974.Table 7. p. 43.•
Slater quality data are flow weighted averages computed from*available data. Water quality and flow data from Fickle,
John P., et al. Hydrolpgic Data from Piceance Basin, Colorado^ Colorado Water Resources Basic-Data Release No. 31.
Denver, Colo.: Colorado Departmeit of Natural Resources,1974.
Recommended by American Water Works Association, Inc. Water Quality and Treatment, 3rd ed. New York, N.Y.i McGraw-
Hill. 1971.
"plow data from U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. 1974 Water Resource's Data for Colorado, Part li
Surface Water Records. Washington, D.C.i Government Printing Office, 1975.
Flow data for Colorado River at Glenwood Springs, Colorado, Station Ho. 09072500, USGS. Water "Resources Data for
Colorado; Surface water,
^Flow data from private correspondence with George H. Leavesley, Hydrologist, (J.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado.
U.S.. Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations", Proposed Regulations.
42 Fed. Reg. 17143-47 (March 31; 1977).
*U.S.. environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Drinking Water Regulations", effective June 24, 1977.
40 Fed. Reg. 59566-87 (December 24, 1975). These regulations Include other standards not given here.
380
-------
TABLE 8-17: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Use
Power Plant
Oil Shale Retort
(TOSCO II)
Oil Shale Retort
(TOSCO II)
Size
1,000 MWe
50,000 bbl/day
100,000 bbl/day
Requirement3-
(acre-ft/yr)
ERDSb
14,000
7,210
14,420
WPAC
13,360
6,140
12,280
bbl/day = barrels per day
ERDS = Energy Resource Development System
MWe = megawatts^-electric
WPA = Water Purification Associates
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of 100
percent. Although not realistic for sustained operation,
this load factor will indicate the maximum water demand
for these facilities.
Chapter 3 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy Resource
Development Systems for a Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
°From Water Purification Associates. Water Require-
ments for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Syn-
thetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, Final
Report, for University of Oklahoma, Science and Public
Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, forthcoming. The load factors assumed
" in the report are different for different technologies.
Water consumption was changed to correspond to 100 per-
cent load factor in this table.
8.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements hypothesized for the Rifle scenario
are shown in Table 8-17.^ Two sets of data are presented. The
Energy Resource Development System data are based on secondary
sources (including impact statements, Federal Power Commission
Vater requirements for tertiary oil recovery have not been
included.
381
-------
docket filings, and recently published data accumulations ) and
can be considered typical requirement levels. The Water Puri-
fication Associates data are from a study on minimum water use
requirements and take into account the moisture content of the
coal being used and local meteorological data.2 The consumptive
use of the water required for these facilities is shown in Figure
8-5. Cooling consumes the most water in power generation, while
for oil shale processing, cooling, and solid waste disposal
consume comparable amounts.
Additional water will be required for oil shale mines and
for spent shale reclamation. These requirements are based on
an irrigation rate of 24 inches per year for 5 years^ and are
shown in Table 8-18.
TABLE 8-18: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION
Mine
Power Plant
Underground Oil Shale
Surface Oil Shale
Total
Acres
Disturbed
Per Year
275
150
75
500
Maximum
Acres Under
Irrigation
1,375
750
375
2,500
Water
Requirement
(acre-ft/yr)
2,750
1,500
750
5,000 '
Based on an irrigation rate of 24 inches per year for 5 years,
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975. Radian Corporation. A Western
Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin,
Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power:Generation and Synthetic-Fuel plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public•.Policy Programs Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. See Appendix B.
3
Cook, C. Wayne. Surface Rehabilitation of Land Disturbances
Resulting from Oil Shale Development. Ft. Collins, Colo.: Colorado
State University , Environmental Resources Center, 1974, p. 50.
382
-------
25
20
15
0)
k.
o
o 10
o
o
Cooling Tower
Evaporation
Consumed in
the Process
Solids Disposal
Consumption
R-14,000 RH4j420
W-13.359
W-12,278
Power Oil Shale Oil Shale
Generation 100,000 BPD 50,OOOBPD
1,000 MW
FIGURE 8-5: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE
RIFLE SCENARIO
383
-------
TABLE 8-19:
INCREASED MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS
(acre-ft/yr)a
Location
Rifle
Grand Valley
Glenwood Springs
Grand Junction
Meeker
Range ly
Rural
Per Capita Usage
1975
130
70
120
165
150
85
80
1980
65
25
25
775
810
480
120
1990
570
300
80
2,680
1,110
380
450
2000
610
320
120
3,820
1,200
410
510
aBased on 130 percent of reported wastewater flow,
See Table 8-22.
As shown in Figure 8-3, water for the power plant will be
taken from the White River near Meeker. Water that has been
released from a new upstream, off-channel impoundment will be
withdrawn from the Colorado River near Grand Valley to supply the
50,000 barrels per day (bbI/day) oil shale plant. This new
impoundment will be filled with flood flows from the Colorado
River. The 100,000-bbl/day oil shale plant will use groundwater
from dewatering the oil shale mines as process water.
B. Municipalities
The increased population associated with energy development
will require additional water supply facilities. An estimated
total of 7,000 acre-ft/yr of water will be required by the year
2000. This requirement has been broken down by municipality in
Table 8-19. Water for municipal use will probably be withdrawn
from Colorado's allocation of the Colorado River either through a
direct intake of river water or from wells in alluvial aquifers.
In either case, permits must be obtained from the State of Colo-
rado to withdraw this water.
8.3.4 Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The quantities and types of wastes from energy technologies
hypothesized at Rifle are shown in Table 8-20. Effluents from
the shale retorts are more than 100 times those from the power
plant and are primarily spent shale. Dust control
at the 50,000-bbl/day shale plant produces effluent quantities
comparable to power plant flue gas desulfurization and ash
384
-------
TABLE 8-20: RESIDUALS GENERATED BY ENERGY FACILITIES AT RIFLE
Residual Source
Power Plant total
Boiler demineralizer waste
Treatment waste
Flue gas desulfurization
Bottom ash disposal
Fly ash disposal
50, 000-bb I/day Oil Shale Retort total
Spent shale disposal
Venturi scrubber dust control
100,000-bbl/day Oil Shale Retort total
Spent shale disposal
Venturi scrubber dust control
Stream,
Content
S
I
I
I
Wet-Solids
(tpd)
1,490
0.4
64
743
143
543
62,100
61,100
968
124,200
122,300
1,940
Dry-Solids
(tpd)
860
0.3
26
297
109
431
54,000
53,600
368
108,000
107,300
736
Water in
Solids
(gpm)
105
0.04
6
74
6
19
1,350
1,250
100
2,700
2,500
200
00
Ul
bbl/day = barrels per day
gpm = gallons per minute
tpd = tons per day
Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation
and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, Final Report for University
of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, forthcoming. The load factors assumed in the report are different
for different technologies. Water consumption was changed to correspond to 100 percent
load factor in this table.
S = soluble inorganic
I = insoluble inorganic
-------
TABLE 8-21: WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS FOR TOWNS
AFFECTED BY THE RIFLE SCENARIO3
Town
Rifle
Grand Valley
Glenwood Springs
Grand Junction
Meeker
Range ly
Type of Treatment
Aerated lagoon system
Extended aeration
package plant
Trickling filter
plant
Trickling filter
plant
Extended aeration
Aerated lagoon
Design Load
(MMgpd)
.3
.03
1.3
7.3
0.2
0.16
Present Flow
(MMgpd)
.218
overloaded
.5
4.23
0.24
0.13
Future
Facilities
Preparing 201 plan ,
Preparing 201 plan
Completed 201 plan
Completed 201 plan
Currently under expansion to
0.4 MMgpd activated sludge +
tertiary treatment
Design phase for expansion to
1.0 MMgpd with aerated lagoons
CO
00
MMgpd = million gallons per day
From telephone conversation with the Colorado Water Quality Control Commission.
Refers to Section 201 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§201,
33 U.S.C.A. §§1281 (Supp. 1976) wherein federal funds are available for the planning, design, and
construction of wastewater treatment facilities.
-------
disposal. Other residual quantities are insignificant. All of
these waste streams are ponded; there are no intentional releases
to surface or groundwater systems.
All effluent streams from the facilities will be discharged
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Runoff pre-
vention systems will be installed in all areas that have a pollu-
tant potential. Runoff will be directed to either a holding pond
or a water treatment facility.
B. Municipalities
Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields), and the
urban population will require waste treatment facilities. The
current status of wastewater treatment facilities in the munici-
palities most affected by energy development activities is indi-
cated in Table 8-21. The waste water generated by the population
increases associated with energy development is shown in Table
8-22.
TABLE 8-22: EXPECTED INCREASES IN WASTEWATER FLOW
rt
Increased Flow Above 1975 Level
(million gallons per day)
Year
1980
1990
2000
Rifleb
0.05
0.39
0.42
Grand0
Valley
0.02
0.21
0.22
Glenwood^
Springs
0.02
0.05
0.08
Grand6
Junction
0.54
1.9
2.6
Meeker
0.55
0.75
0.81
Range lyg
0.33
0.26
0.28
telephone conversation—Colorado Water Quality Control
Commission.
100 gallons per capita.per-day (gcd).
54 gcd.
d91 gcd.
S128 gcd.
£114 gcd.
g65 gcd.
387
-------
Based on current treatment facilities capabilities, all the
communities impacted in this scenario, except Glenwood Springs
and Grand Junction, will require new wastewater treatment facil-
ities to accommodate new population due to energy developments.
New facilities will need to use "best practicable" waste treat-
ment technologies to conform to 1983 standards and must have
allowance for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet
1985 standards.1 The 1985 standards could be met by using
effluents from the waste treatment facility for industrial pro-
cess make-up water or for irrigating local farmland.
8.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The only facilities to be in operation by 1980 are the 1,000-
MWe (megawatts-electric) power plant and its associated under-
ground coal mine.
1. Underground Coal Mine
The coal mine will use surface-water sources and should not
result in the depletion of any regional groundwater aquifers.
However, the mine openings will probably intercept some of the
groundwater flow in the Mesa Verde Group, and any associated
dewatering operations could also cause depletion of local aquifers,
particularly if the aquifers are perched.
Since the coal mine will be located on a natural watershed
divide, runoff affected by the mining process can be trapped
without disturbing natural surface-water drainage. Also, because
this is an underground mine, only a small area will be nee'ded for
surface facilities that cause changes in water quality. Water
affected by these facilities will be trapped and introduced into
the water treatment facilities at the power plant.
2. Power Plant
Construction activities at the power plant will remove vege-
tation and disturb the soil. These activities have an effect on
surface-water quality. The major effect will be from increases
in the sediment load of local runoff. Maintenance areas and
petroleum products storage facilities will also be needed to
support construction equipment. Areas for the storage of other
construction-related materials (such as aggregate for a concrete
batch plant) may be required as well. All these facilities have
the potential for contaminating runoff. Runoff control methods
will be instituted at all the potential sources of contaminants.
Runoff will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse,
and evaporation. Because the supply of water to this pond is
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§
§§101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
388
-------
intermittent, evaporation may claim most of the water, but some
of the water may be used for dust control.
The power plant facility will use about 14,000 acre-feet of
surface water annually (see Table 8-17). This water will come
from the White River near Meeker. A 28-acre surface reservoir to
be constructed at the plant site will contain a 21-day supply of
water (about 800 acre-feet). This water will be used during
extremely low-flow periods in the White River, but the plant will
generally not draw water solely from the reservoir for more than
14 consecutive days. The plant requires approximately 20 cubic
feet of water per second. This would consume about 14 percent of
the lowest recorded flow in the White River at Meeker.
Since water for the coal-fired power plant will be obtained
from surface-water sources, excessive withdrawals and aquifer
depletions are not expected to be major problems. In fact,
leakage from fresh-water storage ponds should have the beneficial
effect of recharging local perched aquifers.
Approximate quantities of effluents expected from the opera-
tion of the power plant are given in Table 8-20. These effluents
will be discharged into clay-lined retention ponds to reduce the
potential for pollution of local surface waters or groundwaters,
although some leakage from these ponds could occur and pollute
groundwater.
3. .Municipal Facilities
The effects of energy development-related population growth
on area municipal facilities in terms of increased water supply
and wastewater treatment demand were shown in Tables 8-19 and
8-21.
Small communities will be significantly affected by large
increases in water and wastewater service requirements. Updating
treatment facilities to meet expected population demands may cost
more per capita in a small municipality than in a large city.
Under present law, pollutants from the sewage treatment plant may
discharge to surface waters until 1985. If a reliable treatment
scheme can be devised, there should be no significant pollution
from this practice. Where population growth occurs in rural
areas having no centralized treatment facilities, groundwater
quality may be decreased by septic tank and drainfield systems.
The substrate has a natural capacity for renovation of septic
tank effluent, but this capacity can be exceeded if septic tank
density becomes too great.
Other environmental effects to be expected as a result of
population growth include a decrease in surface-water quality
stemming from urban runoff. If contaminated runoff recharges
aquifers, then groundwater quality may be affected as well.
389
-------
Leachates from additional municipal solid waste disposal sites
can also contaminate both groundwater and surface water.
B. Impacts to 1990
The 50,000-bbI/day oil shale plant will begin operations in
1985. Construction of the 100,000-bbI/day oil shale plant will
begin in 1984, and the plant will go on-line in 1990. The 1,000-
MWe power plant will continue operation throughout this period.
The tertiary recovery operations at the oilfield will also begin
before 1990, but because of data deficiencies, their impacts will
not be described in this report.
1. Mines
The two oil shale mines will have several impacts on the
bedrock groundwater aquifers. Mine dewatering operations at the
100,000-bbI/day facility in the Piceance Creek Basin are expected
ultimately to intercept at least 14 cfs of the bedrock aquifer
flow.l This is 39 percent of the 36 cfs flow estimated for the
Green River aquifer in the Piceance Creek Basin.2 Interception
of this amount of flow will cause several springs and seeps to
dry up, and the recharge to alluvial aquifers will also be
reduced. At the 50,000-bbI/day plant, mining operations will
deplete the bedrock aquifers by 420 acre-ft/yr (0.58 cfs), which
will lower the local water table below the bed of Parachute Creek
and thus eliminate its base flow.^
The effects of the underground coal mine are expected to be
about the same as those described for the previous period. How-
ever, the extent of the impacts will increase as expanded mine
openings intercept more aquifers and/or remove more of the orig-
inal aquifer, resulting in greater interruption of groundwater
flow. Also, mine subsidence may begin to set in during this
decade and may lead to such effects as topographic and drainage
pattern changes, disruption of groundwater flow in the overburden,
'and possibly mixing of fresh and saline aquifers.
Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale
Development on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 4.
Ibid., p. 34.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental impact Statement; Proposed Development of
t>il Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colo-
rado. Washington, B.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p. 34.
390
-------
vegetation has been established, which could increase runoff as
much as 1.4 acre-ft per acre of disposal pile.1 However, this
increase in runoff will appear as a loss of flow in the local
streams during the life of the plant because the water will be
caught by retention facilities and treated for use as process
make-up water. These facilities will cause a portion of the
natural watershed to be effectively removed from the basin, thus
causing the flow decrease in local streams. After vegetation is
established and runoff quality has been shown to be acceptable,
the retention facility will be deactivated and runoff will be
returned to these streams.
3. Municipal Facilities
If municipalities install sewage treatment facilities that
meet the goal of zero discharge of pollutants by 1985, the
increased municipal effluent will have little effect on ground-
water systems. A possible exception is excess leakage from
municipal sewer lines that could contaminate shallow aquifers.
Population growth in rural areas may also have an impact on aqui-
fers. In areas of high .population density where septic tank and
drainfield disposal methods are used, the cumulative effect of
the septic tanks may exceed the capacity of the soils to renovate
the drainfield effluent. The result could be the direct infil-
tration of effluent into aquifers, thereby lowering groundwater
quality. Other sources of contamination for both surface and
groundwater are urban runoff and leachate from solid waste dis-
posal sites.
Municipal water supply requirements will have to be met
through increases in service systems and treatment facilities.
The quantities of the increases in water supply and wastewater
are shown in Table 8-19 and 8-21.
C. Impacts to 2000
The effects of the 100,000-bbI/day oil shale plant will
begin after the plant becomes operational in 1990. The impacts
of the other oil shale plant and the coal mine and power plant
will continue as in the preceding decade.
1. Mines
Continued operations at the coal mine and the 50,000-bbl/
day oil shale plant are expected to increase the effects on the
bedrock aquifers described earlier. Water added to the spent
Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale
Development on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
391
-------
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
The 1,000-MWe power plant will use surface-water supplies
and will not contribute to depletion of aquifers in the area.
Leakage from water storage ponds will have the continued bene-
ficial effect of recharging local aquifers with high quality
water that will tend to dilute lower quality water. Lower qual-
ity recharge would be expected from cooling tower and sanitary
effluent ponds and from scrubber sludge and ash disposal sites.
This may result in contamination of local Mesa Verde aquifers.
The effect of the power plant on the flow in the White River, as
described earlier, will continue throughout this decade.
Since water for operation of the 50,000-bbl/day oil shale-
plant will be taken from surface water, the water requirements of
this plant will have minimal negative impact on groundwater sup-
plies. Although water storage ponds at the site may provide
beneficial recharge to the bedrock aquifers, leakage from ,
effluent disposal ponds may lower groundwater quality. If the
spent (processed) oil shale from the 50,000-bbl/day plant is
deposited in gullies as planned, infiltrating precipitation and
water added for revegetation may leach trace elements and dis-
solved salts into both bedrock and alluvial aquifers (the latter
by pollution of streamflow which becomes recharge to the allu-
vial aquifers).
The water supply system envisioned for the 50,000-bbl/day
oil shale plant on Parachute Creek will have little effect on
surface flows. Water is postulated to be released from an
upstream impoundment and removed near the confluence of the Colo-
rado River and Parachute Creek. The impoundment will be off-
stream and will be filled with flood flows from the Colorado
River. There should be no measurable adverse environmental
impact from this water supply system provided the impoundment
design is adequate to handle extreme low-flow periods. If the
plant were to withdraw process water without a corresponding
impoundment release, the plant requirement of 12.7 cfs is equiv-
alent to 1.8 percent of the minimum low flow of record near Cameo,
Colorado (the closest gaging station with adequate records).
Even during such an extreme event, changes caused by the process
withdrawals would be small.
Energy conversion activities also increase surface runoff.
The large areas used for spent shale disposal will contribute to
this increase as will the process facilities and roads. Also,
the oil shale disposal piles may become semi-impermeable until
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment . Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Develop-
ment of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation
in Colorado. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p.34.
392
-------
shale during revegetation, as well as natural precipitation, will
leach trace elements, dissolved salts, and other contaminants
from the shale. This contaminated water may then recharge the
lower Green River aquifer, which has low water quality (high TDS)
even in natural conditions.
The impact on surface water will increase as the area of
disturbed land caused by mining activities increases. Recharge
into Yellow and Piceance Creeks (Figure 8-1) will be further
diminished, and water quality will be lowered in the groundwater
recharge areas.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
The effects of the power plant and coal mine, the tertiary
recovery operation, and the 50,000-bbI/day oil shale plant will
continue during the 1990-2000 period.
The onset of operations of the 100,000-bbI/day oil shale
plant in 1990 will mark the beginning of bedrock aquifer deple-
tion in the drainage basin of Piceance Creek. As noted in an
earlier section, about 25 cfs will be required for plant opera-
tions. Aquifer modeling studies by the U.S. Geological Survey
indicate that most, if not all, of this water can be taken from
dewatering activities at the mine. Water levels in the area
around the mine will decline and a 10-mile stretch of Piceance
Creek near the mine will begin to lose flow to groundwater
recharge. Water flowing into this stretch from upstream will
probably all go to aquifer recharge and there will probably be
no flow in the creek bed. One of the chief effects of this flow
loss will be a lowering of the quality of water in the creek
downstream from the mine. The stream in that area gains poor
quality groundwater, but under natural conditions, this water is
diluted by good quality water from the upper reaches of the
stream. When this good quality streamflow is lost to the bedrock
aquifer because of dewatering, the benefits of dilution will be
lost. Also, springs and seeps may be expected to dry up in the
area where water levels decline because of dewatering, particu-
larly in the "losing" stretch of the stream. These water losses
and water quality effects will not occur immediately when the
mine is opened but will gradually build up over the 30-year life
of the operation. The conditions described will exist at the
time of plant shutdown and therefore represent a "worse-case"
situation.
Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale
Development on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
393
-------
The spent shale from the 100,000-bbI/day operation will be
deposited in mined-out areas and gullies. Water from direct pre-
cipitation and the water added for revegetation purposes may
leach trace elements or other contaminants from the spent shale.
Leakage from the toe of the deposits will be collected and pro-
cessed, but some leachate may infiltrate bedrock aquifers and
contaminate the groundwater. Runoff characteristics from reclaimed
land must be monitored to insure that an acceptable level of
water quality is being achieved.
Because of Public Law 92-500, which has a goal of zero
discharge of pollutants by 1985, the only surface-water effects
associated with effluent disposal at the energy facilities will
be the result of unplanned occurrences. Ponds used for the ulti-
mate disposal of cooling-tower blowdown, sanitary effluent, and
scrubber sludge will continue to fill. The associated water will
be evaporated or may leak into the pond liner material carrying
some of the dissolved constituents with it. There will be the
continuing possibility that some harmful constituents will reach
the groundwater system and cause a degradation of both surface
and groundwater supplies. Clay adsorption in the pond liner or,
where it occurs, in the clay substrate will reduce the possibil-
ity of trace element contamination but will not reduce the total
dissolved solids content.
3. Municipal Facilities
Increased urban and rural population growth in the 1990-2000
decade will produce qualitatively similar but quantitatively
greater effects as compared with the preceding decade. Municipal
facilities will experience progressively increasing demands for
water supply and wastewater treatment. Water supplies will con-
tinue to be charged against Colorado's share of Upper Basin sur-
face water, whether taken from streams or alluvial aquifers.
Wastewater treatment facilities will be changed from discharging
to local streams to recycling or land application of effluents.
Recycled water may help diminish the water supply demands placed
on local sources by the hypothesized energy development facili-
ties.
D. Impacts After 2000
1. Mines
After operations cease, the oil shale and coal mines may
subside over the long term, resulting in minor changes in topog-
raphy and drainage patterns as well as changes in groundwater
flow patterns in the overburden. In addition, the coal mine may
produce acid water. However, insufficient groundwater data pre-
clude the evaluation of this potential problem. The low-sulfur
content of the coal may reduce this probability.
394
-------
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
After the plants are decommissioned/ the facilities will
remain. Leakage from effluent disposal ponds may continue to
recharge and contaminate groundwater systems long after opera-
tions cease unless the sites are properly maintained. Likewise,
the dikes around the evaporative ponds may lose their protective
vegetation and erode, and the dikes may breach as a result. Sub-
sequently, materials within the pond site will erode and enter
the surface-water system.
3. Municipal Facilities
As municipal wastewater plants are upgraded, the quality of
effluents will improve and the impacts on groundwater will lessen.
Further, as rural areas become more densely populated, more of
these areas will switch from septic tanks to municipal wastewater
treatment systems. The decreased septic tank load will alleviate
the associated groundwater degradation problem. However, those
areas remaining on septic tanks will pose a continued hazard to
local groundwater systems.
8.3.6 Summary of Significant Impacts
The oil shale mines will have an impact on both groundwater
and surface water hydrology. A significant portion of the local
groundwater will be removed by mine dewatering activities. This
depletion will decrease the groundwater supply to surface streams
and to springs and seeps.
Coal mine subsidence will change local overland water flow
patterns and may create depressions that will store water. Due
to the lack of groundwater data, an evaluation of the possibility
of acid-mine drainage has not been made during this first year.
Cumulative water requirements of energy conversion facili-
ties will be about 50,000 acre-ft/yr. The impact of surface
water withdrawal on water availability is not a major local issue,
especially for the Colorado River. However, as noted earlier,
the groundwater withdrawals in Piceance creek will cause deple-
tion of flow to springs and seeps as well as greatly reduce the
groundwater recharge of surface streams.
Runoff will decrease during facility construction and will
remain measurably less than current levels after the facilities
are completed due to trapping of this runoff to guard against
water quality deterioration.
One of the most significant impacts will be the inter-
ception of groundwater flow in the Piceance Creek Basin.
The 100,000-bbl/day oil shale plant will withdraw 70 per*
cent of the aquifer flow, none of which will be released
395
-------
from the plant site. Removal of this quantity of flow (25 cfs)
will not only lower water levels in the aquifer but will reduce
or eliminate flow from springs and seeps. This will result in
the reduction of the base flow of Piceance Creek to 30 percent of
its original amount and will eliminate flow in the creek at least
part of the time. The quantity of base flow lost will also be
reflected as a loss of flow in the White River.
Over the long term, spent shale deposits are likely to
have an impact on both groundwater and surface water. The hydrol-
ogy of the upper parts of the affected stream basins will be
changed by filling gullies with spent shale. After revegetation,
natural precipitation will continue to leach trace elements. Some
of this leachate may recharge bedrock aquifers, and some will
surface at the toe of the piles and enter surface-water systems.
Runoff from spent shale piles will be trapped and cycled for
process water, but only for the life of the plants.
Waste disposal ponds at the various energy conversion plant
sites will also pose a long-term pollution potential to both
groundwater and surface water systems. The berms that impound the
ponds may ultimately be destroyed by erosion, and the pond con-
tents (soluble solids, ash, toxic metals, and other wastes) may
be released to surface water. The pond liners are designed to be
effective for the life of the plant, but they may not prevent
escape of the pond contents over the long term. Leaching of pond
contents would result in infiltration into the subsurface and
recharge to local aquifers. If the vertical permeability is low,
the leachate will migrate laterally, discharge into stream
basins, and ultimately contaminate surface streams.
The impact of energy development on municipal water facili-
ties depends on the size of the communities involved. Larger
capacity treatment facilities and new treatment schemes will be
required for water supply and wastewater treatment. The water
supply requirements will put a greater demand on the surface-
water resource even though wastewater effluents may eventually
be recycled for industrial uses.
8.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
8.4.1 Introduction
The social, economic, and political effects resulting from
energy developments in the Rifle scenario will occur primarily
in GarfieId and Rio Blanco Counties and the city of Grand Junc-
tion. At present, the area population is concentrated in the
eastern portion of the counties; the hypothetical energy develop-
ments will be located in the western portion of the counties.
jyipst^ of the anticipated social, economic, and political impacts
will result either directly or~ indirectly from the population
increase that will come with energy development. This section
396
-------
describes and analyzes existing conditions in the area and the
changes likely to accompany energy development.
8.4.2 Existing Conditions1
Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties occupy 6,254 square miles
and had a combined 1970 population of 19,663, giving the region
a population density of 3.1 people per square mile. Colorado's
overall density is 21.2 people per square mile. The population
of the area has increase'd in the last decade but not on a com-
parable level with the state (14.5 percent increase for the two
counties as compared with 25.8 percent for the state). Specula-
tion and anticipation concerning oil shale production in the area
has been a major cause for this population growth. Further, Rio
Blanco County's population declined by 6 percent during the
decade, primarily due to net out-migration. About one-half of
the residents in the two counties live in unincorporated areas.
Populations and population changes for the area counties and towns
are shown in Table 8-23.
TABLE 8-23:
POPULATIONS OF COUNTIES AND TOWNS
IN THE RIFLE VICINITY
'• Location
Rip Blanco County
Meeker
Rangely
Garfield County
Glenwood Springs
Rifle
Carbondale
New castle
Silt
Grand Valley
Mesa County
Grand Junction
1974a
( 5,200
2,000
1,725
16,500
4,646
2,403
1.600
618
720
1 360
57,200
26,400
1970
4,842
1,597
1,591
14,821
4,106
2,150
726
499
434
350 •
54,374
20,170
1960
5,150
1,655
1,464
13,017
3,637
2,135
612
447
384
245
50,715
18,900
Sources; U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census. "Estimates of the Population of
Colorado Counties and Metropolitan Areas:
July 1, 1973 and July 1, 1974." Current Popu-
lation Reports, Series P-26, No. 103 (April
1975); Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource
Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts
and Federal Assistance in Energy Development
Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII.
Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, 1975.
For a detailed history and current description of the sce-
nario area, see Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator. Qil
Shale Tract C-b; Socio-Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunc-
tion with the activities related-J^o -lease C-2D341_ issued junder the
Federal prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, n.p.: March 1976,
Vol. 1.
397
-------
TABLE 8-24:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY,
GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO, 1970
Industry
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and
communication
Utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
F.I.R.E.C
Services
Government and
education
Not reported
Total
Garfield
558
395
678
166a
214
186
153
1,242
265
1,236
564
208
5,865
Rio Blanco
306
280
15 2,
42b
32
62
53
241
56.^
603d
153
0
1,980
Two-County
Area (%)
11
8.6
10.6
2.7
3.1
3.2
2.6
18.9
4.1
23.4
9.1
2.7
100
Sources: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Affairs and U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Land Management.
aMostly food processing.
Mostly petroleum refining.
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.
""Mostly professional services.
Employment by industry in the two counties is shown in
Table 8-24. Tourist-related employment is centered in Glenwood
Springs, which is on the route to Aspen and Vail.
Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties are each governed by a
Board of County Commissioners. Both counties have planning
departments and countywide zoning regulations (see Table 8-25).
Both also belong to a council of governments made up of elected
officials from these counties and Moffat and Mesa Counties. This
council of governments has focused much of its attention on oil
shale development within the area. According to a survey of
398
-------
TABLE 8-25:
LAND USE REGULATIONS, GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES AND
LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES, 1975
Location
Garfield County
Carbondale
Glenwood Springs
Grand Valley
New Castl^
Rifle
Silt
Rio Blanco County
Meeker
Range ly
P lanning
Commission
Y
Y
Y
Imminent
Y
Y
Imminent
Y
Y
Y "-
Zoning
Ordinance
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Mobile Home
Regulations
Y
N
Y
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Subdivision
Regulations
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Building
Code
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y(U.B.C.)a
County
County
N =•absence of commission or regulation.
Y = county or community does have the commission or regulation.
Source: THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil
Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Asso-
ciates, 1974 and Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of
Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance
in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.:
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
Uniform Building Code.
-------
residents and officials, stringent land-use controls are favored
in Garfield County and opposed in Rio Blanco County.
Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt, Rifle, and
Grand Valley are the incorporated cities in Garfield County.
Carbondale, Grand Valley, and Rifle are governed by a mayor and
council. All three also have a professional city manager, but
only Carbondale has a professional planner. (Carbondale has
recently grown because of energy development in nearby Pitkin
County.) Public services include water, sewers, public safety,
and fire protection.2 Apparently, current services are operating
at or near capacity; however, expansion is either under way or
being discussed in all three cities.
Meeker and Rangely are incorporated cities in Rio Blanco
County. Both are governed by a mayor and council. Meeker has a
city manager and Rangely has a town administrator, but neither
has a professional planner. Public services in Meeker include
water, sewers (provided by a separate district), a volunteer fire
department, and public safety. Rangely provides the same ser-
vices except that it is just beginning to develop its sewer
system.
Education for the counties and municipalities is provided
by separate school districts. Other special districts provide
for sanitation, fire protection, and hospital.
8.4.3 Population Impacts
The first major energy-related impact on western Colorado
will be from construction workers associated with the coal mine
and power plant complex, followed in 1978 by oil well drilling
personnel. All construction in this scenario will foe completed
before 1990. Population changes were estimated by means of an
economic base model, the employment data from the Bechtel Cor-
porationS in Table 8-26, and a set of multipliers for construction
VTN Colorado, Inc. Socioeconomic and Environmental Land
Use Survey; Moffat, Routt, and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado.
Summary Report. Denver, Colo.: VTNColorado, 1975, p. 160.
2
Sewer service in Carbondale and fire protection in Grand
Valley are provided by separate districts. Rifle is now forming
a separate fire protection district.
Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Mode1_. San
Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
400
-------
TABLE 8-26:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT
FOR RIFLE SCENARIO, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1990-2000
Construction
157
465
720
1,360
2,927
4,465
4,856
5,572
5,161
2,765
623
1,877
3,310
3,356
1,871
0
0
Operation
150
333
665
1,331
1,741
2,150
2,560
2,968
4,297
4,297
4,297
4,297
4,297
6,132
6,132
Total
157
465
870
1,693
3,592
5,796
6,597
7,722
7,721
5,733
4,920
6,174
7,607
7,653
6,168
6,132
6,132
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply
Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.? Bechtel
Corporation, 1975.
and for operation phases. ^ Further, the overall population esti-
mates were distributed spatially among the urban centers in and
around Garfield County (Table 8-27 and Figures 8-6 and 8-7) . The
Construction-phase service/basic multipliers increase from
0.3 in 1975 to 0.7 in 1982 and remain constant thereafter; opera-
tion-phase multipliers begin at 0.4 in 1977 and rise to 1.2 by
1986. These values were adapted from Crawford, A.B., H.H.
Fullerton, and W.C. Lewis. Socio-Economic Impact Study at Oil
Shale Development in the Uintah Basin, for White River Shale Pro-
ject. Providence, Utah: Western Environmental Associates, 1975,
pp. 156-158. Low multiplier effects are the rule rather than the
exception in rural areas. See Summers, Gene F., et al. Indus-
trial Invasion of Nonmetropolitan America. New York, N.Y.:
Praeger, 1976, pp. 54-59. Population employee multipliers used
were 2.05 for construction workers, 2.50 for operation workers,
and 2.0 for service workers (all of which take into account two-
worker households). They were;adapted from Mountain West
Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washing-
ton, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976.
401
-------
30-n
0)
120-
<0
llO-
Total
-• Rural
. Rifle
:| Glen wood Springs
Grand Valley
I I 1 I
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 8-6: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR GARFIELD COUNTY,
1980-2000
20 -H
Total
• Meeker
• Rangely
* Rural
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 8-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR RIO BLANCO
1980-2000
402
-------
TABLE 8-27:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES
AND GRAND JUNCTION, 1975-2000a
County
Rio Blanco
Meeker
Range ly
Rural
Total
Garfield
Rifle
Grand Valley
Glenwood Springs
Rural
Total
Grand Junction Area
Total
1975
2,200
1,800
1,200
5,200
2,500
360
4,650
8,900
16,500
45,000
1980
7,000
6,850
2,050
15,900
2,950
700
4,850
9,500
18,000
49,200
1985
7,100
5,600
2,150
14,850
4,800
2,350
5,050
10,400
22,600
54,100
1990
8,800
5,800
3,800
17,400
6,400
4,200
5,250
11,350
27,200
59,500
1995
9,000
6,000
3,800
17,800
6,550
4,300
5,400
11,650
27,900
62,600
2000
9,300
6,100
3,900
18,300
6,700
4,400
5,550
11,950
28,600
65,700
Estimates incorporate an annual natural increase of 0.8 percent through
1990, and 0.5 percent thereafter, except in Grand Junction where the rates
used were 1.5 percent and 1.0 percent to include urban agglomeration
effects. In general, given the conditions assumed in this scenario, the
estimates should have a maximum error range of ^25 percent. For example,
an estimate of 6,000 people should be interpreted as between 4,500 and
7,500. These ranges carry through the subsequent analyses based on popu-
lation estimates.
Grand Valley vicinity at the mouth..of Parachute Creek is expected
to receive a. large amount of the increase .in population, although
a new town is not anticipated in this scenario.1
The population of Garfield County is expected to increase
more than 70 percent to almost 29,000 people by 2000. Rifle
should grow nearly three-fold to 6,700, becoming larger than
Glenwood Springs by 1990. Grand Valley is expected to increase
from 360 to 4,400, a twelve-fold increase. Rio Blanco County is
expected to grow 330 percent by 1990, with much of the growth
See the uncontrolled urban development pattern in THK
Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to
an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study.
Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, pp. 75-77.
403
-------
taking place in Rangely and Meeker (Figure 8-6). Meeker is pro-
jected to increase to 9,300 people by 2000. For the two-county
area, the 25,200 population increase by the year 2000 is a 162-
percent change from 1975 levels.^
In general, the population increase in the scenario is
expected to take place primarily in and near the established
towns. Outside the two-county area, service employment will
increase in Grand Junction, the major service center in western
Colorado. A 46-percent population increase is expected in the
Grand Junction area as a result of the energy development hypo-
thesized in this scenario.
Age-sex, breakdowns of the projected populations in Garfield
and Rio Blanco Counties help in predicting changes in the housing
and educational needs of the area. From the basic age-sex distri-
bution which existed in 1970, the new employment was assumed to
be distributed by age as found in recent surveys in the West.2
The resulting age-sex distribution in Table 8-28 shows an
increase in the 25-34 age group and, through 1990, the 0-5 age
group. The 35-54 age group increases after 1990. In addition,
the relative proportion of males to females is high during the
1980-1995 period because of single males associated with energy
development.
8.4.4 Housing and School Impacts
Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by
employing the information in Tables 8-27 and 8-28 and assuming
that children in the 6-13 age group are in elementary school and
those in the 14-16 age group are in secondary school (see Table
8-29 and Figure 8-8). Based on these projections, expected
housing demand nearly doubles almost immediately, indicating that
about 4,700 new units will be needed in the Garfield-Rio Blanco
County area by 1980. Growth in demand is somewhat slower there-
after, but 3,700 additional new homes will be needed between
1980 and 2000.
For a scenario which projects greater population growth,
see THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land
Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, pp. 75-77.
2
Data adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction
Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West
Regional Commission, 1976, p. 38.
404
-------
TABLE 8-28:
PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR GARFIELD
AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000a
Age
Female
6 5 -over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0- 5
Total
Male
6 5 -over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0- 5
Total
1975
.055
.051
.113
.059
.033
.030
.031
.078
.046
.496
.050
.049
.116
.058
.031
.032
.034
.084
.047
.501
1980
.031
.032
.091
.097
.037
.027
.024
.067
.052
.458 ,
.029
.038
.117
.123
.052
.033
.026
.070
.053
.541
1985
.028
.029
.085
.096
.036
.033
.028
.080
.057
,- .472
.026
.031
.100
.123
.044
.035
.029
.082
.058
.528
1990
.024
.026
.082
.107
.038
.033
.027
.077
.060
.474
.022
.027
.098
.134
.044
.035
.028
.079
.060
.527
1995
.024
.032
.104
.087
.049
.033
.030
.077
.046
.482
.024
.033
.120
.101
.051
.034
.030
.078
.046
.517
2000
.028
.041
.116
.093
.053
.036
.031
.067
.025
.490
.028
.044
.120
.101
.054
.036
.031
.067
.025
.506
Source: Table 8-31 and data from Mountain West Research.
Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington,
D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 38.
totals do not always sum to 1.0 because of rounding.
TABLE 8-29:
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN
GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000
Year.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Number of
Households
6,600
11,300
11,300
13,500
13.900
15,000
Number of
Elementary
School Children
3,300
4,650
6,100
6,950
7,100
6,700
Number of
Secondary .
School Children
1,410
1/700
2,150
2,450
2,750
2,900
Source: Tables 8-31 and 8-32.
aAges 6-13.
Ages 14-16. These age group assumptions result in a
possible underestimate of at most 25 percent (current
enrollment is just over 6,700), but relative sizes are
indicative of impacts.
405
-------
(0
•p
c
o
~ 20-i
0)
± 10-
c
UJ
0
I !
1975 I960 1985
I
Households
Elementary
Secondary
1
1990 1995 2000
(0
3
O
I
FIGURE 8-8:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT IN GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES, 1980-2000
406
-------
TABLE 8-30:
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING NEEDS BY
TYPE OF DWELLING3
Years
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Mobile
Home
1,900
-100
600
40
140
Single
Family
1,900
60
1,250
300
660
Multi -Family
580
60
550
120
330
b
Other
320
«20
-200
-60
-30
Compiled from Table 8-33 and data in Mountain West
Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report
Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 103.
For example, campers and recreational vehicles.
The distribution of housing demand in Table 8-30 reflects
the relative number of temporary construction worker households
living in mobile homes through 1990, particularly between 1975
and 1980. Even more families would have to live in mobile homes
if local housing construction cannot keep up. Given existing
infrastructures, the majority of mobile homes will be concen-
trated in the Grand Valley area, where 63 of the present 87
dwellings are mobile homes. Rifle, where mobile homes currently
account for less than 10 percent of available housing, is
expected to maintain a relatively low percentage if the local
building industry attempts to meet demands there.1
School enrollment impacts will vary between elementary and
high school over time. Elementary enrollment is expected to peak
at 7,100 in 1995 (double the 1975 level). The 380 classrooms
currently available in the two-county area average 18 students,
suggesting that some excess capacity is available.2 A 32-percent
rise in enrollment between 1975 and 1980 can be absorbed on an
overall classroom basis, but impacts will be greater at some
locations than at others (Table 8-31). For example, nearly one-
half of all new enrollment by 1980 is expected in Rangely, which
Data on December, 1974 housing are taken from Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural
Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Fed-
eral Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in
Federal Region VIII.. Denver, Colo.:
Regional Council, 1975.
2Ibid.
Mountain Plains Federal
407
-------
TABLE 8-31: SCHOOL DISTRICT FINANCE PROSPECTS FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTY DISTRICTS, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
Location
Rifle
Grand Valley
Meeker
Range ly
Year
1975a
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1975a
1980
1085
1990
1995
2000
1975a
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1975a
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Enrollment
Increase
over 1975
1,500
240
900
1,600
1,700
1,510
186
100
600
1,150
1,180
1,010
693
1,440
1,470
1,980
2,040
1,780
411
1,515
1,140
1,200
1,260
1,080
Classrooms
at
21 per Room
71
11
43
76
81
72
20
Oe
17
44
45
37
44
56c
59
83
86
74
67
25C
7
10
13
4
Capital
Expenditure
Increase
(Millions
of Dollars)*3
0.60
2.25
4.00
4.25
3.78
] _
Oc
0.89
2.31
2.36
1.94
2.94C
3.10
4.36
4.52
3.89
1.31°
0.37
0.53
0.68
0.21
Operations
Expenditure
Increase
(Millions
of Dollars)
2.07
0.50
1.80
3.20
3.40
3.02
0.44
0.20
1.20
2.30
2.36
2.02
1.05
2.88
2.94
3.96
4.08
3.56
1.11
3.03
2.28
2.40
2.52
2.16
1975 data from Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts
and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal
Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
An average of $2,500 per pupil space was obtained from Froomkin, Joseph,
J.R. Endriss, and R.W. Stump. Population, Enrollment and Costs of Elementary
and Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-81, - - -
mission on School Finance. Washington, D.C.:
1971, by inflating to 1975 dollars.
Report to the President's Corn-
Government Printing Office,
CExcess capacity of classrooms in 1975 will be filled before others are needed.
408
-------
TABLE 8-32:
LAND REQUIRED FOR POPULATION-RELATED DEVELOPMENT IN
GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES
(in additional acres after 1975a)
Category
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community
Facilities
Industry
Total (acres)
(square kilometers)
(square miles)
1980
610
122
15
48
61
856
3.5
1.3
1985
787
158
19
49
79
1,092
4.4
1.7
1990
1,145
229
27
71
115
1,587
6.5
2.5
1995
1S200
240
29
74
120
1,663
6.7
2.6
2000
1,260
252
30
78
126
1,746
7
2.7
Assumes: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10
acres per 1,000 population; and commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 popula-
tion; public and community facilities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and
industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates. Impact
Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional
Development and Land Use SJ:udy. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974.
in 1974 had an average of just over six students in each of its
67 classrooms. To maintain an average of 21 pupils per class-
room, 25 new classrooms will be needed by 1980, three-fourths of
them in elementary schools. However, by 1985, Rangely will need
only 7 of the 25 additional classrooms. In the other districts,
enrollment and classroom needs increase steadily, creating a $10
million increase in operating expenditures by 2000. Teachers,
bus drivers, maintenance, and supplies, as well as the purchase
of new school buses, -will be in addition to the construction
costs. The estimates in Table 8-31 suggest that the additional
enrollment during the 1980's and early 1990's may well be accom-
modated by split sessions or temporary facilities, keeping capital
expenditures for permanent facilities to a minimum. However, this
may be difficult in Rangely, where the peak enrollment in 1980
will be 15 percent above the 1995 peak.
8.4i5 Land-Use Impacts
The energy facilities'involved in this scenario will occupy
about 13 square miles in Garfield and southern Rio Blanco Counties
(Figure 8-2). However, if the facilities are located totally or
primarily on land suitable for other development (which is only a
small fraction of the total area), the effect will be much greater
than implied by the total area occupied. The population-related
land requirements shown in Table 8-32 must use the developable
409
-------
land in the river valleys, which comprises only about 615 square
miles in the two counties.1 The requirements for most popula-
tion-related land needs amount to only 2.7 square miles (0.44 per-
cent of the developable land and 1.15 percent of the "most suit-
able" developable land) in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties.^
In addition to actual occupation of certain land areas by
residential, corporate, and municipal facilities, other areas can
become greatly changed by the leisure time activities of resi-
dents. Hunting, hiking, and even driving requires more land when
there are more people? in the Rifle area, these activities could
conflict with current uses of wilderness areas.3
8.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
Agriculture now dominates the economy of Rio Blanco County
(35 percent of all 1972 earnings).4 However, as energy develop-
ment proceeds, the economy will shift to mining and extraction.
In Garfield County, the mixed tourism-related local economy will
shift to mining and service and local government employment
related to population growth. Major economic benefits will result
from employment and income in the energy industries and from tax
revenues of various types (Table 8-33, Figures 8-9 and 8-10).
The scenario development should result in a 13-percent higher
median household income, while during construction the median is
28 percent above the 1975 level5 (see Figure 8-9). The principal
THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional. Development and Land
Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, pp. 61-70; see
also Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator. Oil Shale
Tract C-b; S.ocio-Econpmic Assessment, prepared in conjunction
with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued under the
Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. n.p.:
March 1976.
2
Ratings according to THK Associates. Impact Analysis.
p. 70. The development ratings therein unfortunately include
currently irrigated lands as favorable for development, a con-
flict in use which will have to be resolved.
o
This line of reasoning is expanded in Section 8.5 Eco-
logical Impacts.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business. Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
These income impacts will be in addition to national trends
in income growth from productivity gains and other causes.
.410
-------
TABLE 8-33:
PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Annual Income
(1975 dollars)
Less
than
4,000
.139
.090
.105
.100
.098
.098
4,000
to
6,000
.078
.055
. 066
.065
.065
.065
6,000
to
8,000
.083
.055
.066
.063.
.061
.061
8,000
to
10,000
.089
.072
.091
.091
.089
.089
:1 0,000
to
12,000
.093
.074
.089
.094
.096
.096
12,000
to
15,000
.119
.119
.131
.132
.132
.132
15,000
to
25,000
.285
.388
.365
.372
.375
.375
25,000
and
over
.114
.128
.096
.091
.092
.092
Median
Household
Income
12,450
15,900
13,900
13,980
14,070
14,070
Source: Data for 1975 are taken from U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Household Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's, Cities and Counties; 1970. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, p. 22, and inflated to 1975 dollars. Income
distribution for construction workers, operation workers, and service workers are from
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.:
OldWest Regional Commission, 1976, p. 50, assuming that new service workers households
have the same income distribution as long time residents and the "other newcomers" are
operation employees.
-------
5
•o
S
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 8-9: MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME, GARFIELD AND
RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000
412
-------
more than
25,000
15,000-
25,000
12,000-
15,000
10,000-
12,000
8,000-
10,000
o.OOO-
8,000
4,000-
6,000
less than
4,000
.114
.285
•no
.ny
.093
O89
.083
.078
.139
"•••«...
v
\
\
\
\
\
V
\
\
\
\
X
s, \
N
N
X
^ '
s.
>.
N
N
""x^
x^
.128
.388
•MO
.11 S
.074
.072
.055
.055
.090
-.-
s'
s
Jf
s
s
s
**
*•"
_ — — *"
.096
.365
111
. i«ji
.089
.091
.066
.066
.105
.091
.372
.132
.094
.091
.063
.065
.100
.092
.375
132
.096
.089
.061
.065
.098
.092
.375
132
.096
.089
.061
.065
.098
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 8-10: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR
GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES,
1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars)
413
-------
change in the overall income distribution is an increase in the
relative number of households earning $15,000 to $25,000 (Figure
8-10).
The general increase in business activity should be roughly
proportional to the population gains in each locality. The tem-
porary benefits from construction workers and their somewhat
higher incomes will accrue primarily to the nearby towns of
Rifle, Meeker, Rangely, and Grand Valley. Some commercial growth
should occur in Grand Junction as a result of the Rifle-Meeker
area development, but other development in western Colorado is
likely to be a bigger source of growth in that city.
Local governments will receive tax benefits, although munic-
ipal services will experience shortfalls early in the period.
School districts will have little difficulty after the early rush
of new residents, partly because their taxing areas include the
energy facilities with their relatively large valuations. Based
on an enrollment increase of 6,350 students in all districts
within two counties by 2000, nearly $16 million in new school
construction will be required in the area. Property tax receipts
should keep up with this need. In municipalities, where energy
facilities do not add directly to tax revenues, meeting needs
for public facilities may be more difficult.
Water and sewage treatment facilities are among the primary
problems faced by any small community experiencing a significant
population influx. In terms of capital expenditures, these two
items will account for 75 percent of all non-school expenditures
needed to serve additional population in the scenario area.1
Within the area, excess capacity exists only in Grand Junction's
water and sewage treatment facilities,2 suggesting that the com-
munities in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will be forced to
expand their systems before the population arrives (1975-1980,
Table 8-34) or have insufficient capacities during construction
booms. Other capital needs, especially health care, will demand
sizable capital outlays by 1980. Only Rangely faces a lower
population when construction declines after 1980.
THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land
Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30; see also
Lindauer, R.L. Solutions to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns Caused
by Large Energy Developments. Denver, Colo.: Exxon Co., USA,
1975, pp. 43-44.
2
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
414
-------
TABLE 8-34:
PROJECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE REQUIRED FOR
PUBLIC SERVICES IN GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTY
COMMUNITIES, 1975-2000
(in thousands of 1975 dollars)
County
Rifle
Water and sewagea
Otherb
Grand Valley
Water and sewage
Other
Glenwood Springs
Water and sewage
Other
Meeker
Water and sewage
Other
Range ly
Water and sewage
Other
1975-
1980
/
792
266
598
201
352
118
/
8,448
2,837
8,888
2,985
1980-
1985
3,256
1,093
2,904
975
352
118
176
59
-2,200
-739
1985-
1990
2,816
946
3,256
1,093
352
118
2,992
1,005
352
118
1990-
1995
264
88
176
59
264
88
352
118
352
118
1995-
2000
264
88
176
59
264
88
528
177
176
59
and sewage treatment plant requirements amount to $1,760,000
for each 1000 additional population; an additional $591^000 goes
to other physical plant needs. See THK Associates. Impact Anal-
ysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry;
Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK
Associates, 1974, p. 30. All figures from that source are
inflated to 1975 dollars.
Other includes parks and recreation (32 percent), hospitals (45
percent), libraries (5 percent) fire protection (5 percent),
policy (3 percent), administration (3 percent), and public works
(7 percent). Streets and roads are not included.
415
-------
TABLE 8-35: ADDITIONAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES FOR MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT
IN GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1980-2000
(above 1975 levels in thousands of dollars)3
Year
Current Base
(1975) Budgetb
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Rifle
800
54
276
468
486
504
Grand Valley
84
41
239
461
473
484
Glenwood Springs
1,120
24
48
72
90
108
Meeker
361
'576
588
792
816
852
Range ly
563
606
456
480
504
516
aBased on an average of $120 per capita (1975 dollars) broken down as follows:
highways (25 percent), health and hospitals (14 percent), policy (7 percent),
fire protection (12 percent) , parks and recreation (6 percent) , libraries
(4 percent), administration (10 percent). See THK Associates. Impact Anal-
ysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional
Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 41
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural
Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance
in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. "-Denver,
Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
In terras of overall expenditures, per-capita costs tend to
rise as a town's population increases because more services are
provided; however, much of the increase is normally for capital
expenditures and debt service.1 Based on an average of $120 per
capita, the additional operating expenditures required of munici-
pal governments in the scenario area are shown in Table 8-35.
Meeker and Grand Valley will need three and five times, respec-
tively, their 1974 annual budgets by 1990. Particular needs
likely to be generated by population growth are full-time fire
protection to assist existing volunteer departments and an expan-
sion of county sheriff and municipal police forces and vehicles. 2
THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry:Regional Development and Land
Use Study^Denver, ColoTlTHK Associates, 1974, p. 41.
Ashland Oil, -Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator. Oil Shale
Tract C-b; Socic—Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunction
with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued under the
Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, n.p.: March 1976,
Vol. 1, pp. VIII-34 to VIII-35.
416
-------
TABLE 8-36:
MILL LEVIES AND PER-CAPITA TA2CES FOR
JURISDICTIONS IN THE RIFLE AREA
Jurisdiction
County assessed value
for residential and
commercial property
per capita
School mill levy
General fund mill levy
School tax per capita
General fund tax per
capita
Rio Blanco
Countya
$4,260
29.07
11.88
124
51
Garfield
County"
$4,410
54.98
22.83
242
101
Grand Junction
(Mesa County)
$3,090
70.93
29.88
219
92
1974 tax inflated to 1975. Source: VTN Colorado, Inc. Envi-
ronmental Impact Assessment for the Proposed Colowyo Mine, Colo-
v?vo Coal Company. Denver, Colo.: VTN Colorado, 1975, p. IV,
91-93.
1972 tax inflated to 1975. Source: Bassett, F.B. Upper Colo-
rado Mainstem Region, Social-Economic Profile; Grand Junction
District (Colorado). Boulder, Colo.: Western Interstate Com-
mission for Higher Education, 1973.
The towns in western Colorado may not be able to avoid some
of the usual boom tov/n problems. 1 An additional likely impact
will be felt in tourism and recreation in the area. As described
in Section 8.5, a large ecological impact from the increased popula-
tion could decrease game or change its distribution. An increase in
the number of hunters and habitat fragmentation would probably reduce
herd sizes, creating a decrease in hunter days in the long term.
B. Fiscal
The major source of revenue from energy development will be
the property tax on energy facilities. Nearly $2 .7 billion will
be invested in energy facilities by 1990.2 Assuming that current
mill levies are maintained, the property tax on these facilities
will generate $46 million in new revenues annually by 1990.
Table 8-36 details these levies, and Table 8-37 shows the
-'•See, for example, Gilmore, John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder
Energy Resource Development." Science, Vol. 191 (February 13,
1976), pp. 535-40.
2A11 figures are in 1975 dollars.
417
-------
TABLE 8-37:
PROPERTY TAX REVENUES FROM ENERGY FACILITIES
(in millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
Rio Blanco schools
Rio Blanco general
Garfield schools
Garfield general
Total
1978
2.4
1
0
0
3.4
1980
5
2
0
0
7
1983
14
5.7
0
0
19.7
1985
18.2
7.5
.6
.2
26.5
1990
18.2
7.5
14.3
5.9
45.9
Source: Table 8-35 and Carasso, M., et al. The Energy
Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel
Corporation, 1975.
resulting revenues by jurisdiction. Valuations are based on
investment costs in the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.
In comparison to the industrial plants, valuations of related
residential and commercial property are negligible, adding only
about 1 percent to the above figures. However, for some juris-
dictions (such as Grand Junction), residential and commercial
development will be the only source of new property taxes.
The averages in Table 8-36 can be applied to population
increments in the impacted areas. At the same time, it is con-
venient to add another population-related source: fees for ser-
vices such as water and sewer. If Grand Junction data are indic-
ative of the entire area, $61.60 per year per capita in fees
may be added to the tax revenues. Applying these rates to the
anticipated population increases, revenues may be estimated for
the jurisdictions in the region (Table 8-38).
Next to the property tax, the biggest local revenue will
come from sharing federal mineral revenues because the hypothet-
ical oil shale mine is located on leased federal land. The
royalty rate is $0.12 per ton (1974 dollars) for shale containing
30 gallons of shale oil per ton and may be adjusted to reflect
changes in the price of crude.2 For a 100,000-bbl/day (barrels
per day) facility, annual payments would be $342,000. Also, the
Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San
Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
2
"Fact Sheet" accompanying Department of the Interior news
release of November 29, 1973.
418
-------
TABLE 8-38:
REVENUES FROM RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL
PROPERTY TAXES AND MUNICIPAL UTILITY FEES,
SELECTED JURISDICTIONS
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
Rio Blanco schools
Rio Blanco general
Garfield schools
Garfield general
Grand Junction schools
Grand Junction general
1978
.52
.47
.10
.07
.51
.36
1980
1.33
1.21
.36
.24
.92
.65
1983
1.49
1.36
1.36
.91
1.62
1.14
1985
1.20
1.09
1.48
.99
1.99
1.40
1990
1.51
1.38
2.59
1.14
3.18
2.23
Source: Tables 8-27 and 8-36.
bonus bid payment will add a much larger amount to this. The
highest bonus bid so far received is the $41,300 per acre offer
obtained from the Standard Oil of Indiana/Gulf venture in 1974.
Assuming this to be indicative of what could be collected from a
commercially viable project and applying it to the 1,820-acre
mine site, the projected bonus bid is $84 million, which is pay-
able in five annual installments starting with the bid date.
(The following allocations assume bid dates of 1979 for the
50,000-bbI/day mine and 1984 for the 100,000-bbI/day mine.)
Recently passed legislation allocates one-half of federal mineral
revenues to the state of origin, with one-fourth of that amount
intended for mitigating local impacts. Altogether, the state
share would be $4.3 million per year during 1979-1983, $8.6 mil-
lion during 1984-1988, and about $250,000 annually for the remain-
der of the mines' lives.
State income and sales taxes are the major sources of revenue
tied to personal income. Colorado's income tax, which reaches 8
percent of taxable income for incomes above $10,000,2 implies
collections of $848 per household based on the projected 1980
income distribution and $794 per household based on the
U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project independence
Blueprint Final Task Force Report; Potential Future Role of Oil
Shale; Prospects and Constraints^ Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1974, Appendix B, p. 17.
2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The
Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Table 435. We assume a standard
deduction of $4,000 per household.
419
-------
TABLE 8-39:
NEW SALES TAX REVENUES3
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction*3
State of Colorado (3%)
Rio Blanco County (0.5%)
City of Grand Junction
(0.5%)
Total
1978
.58
.06
.02
.66
1980
1.69
.18
.07
1.94
1983
2.02
.13
.12
2.27
1985
1.74
.11
.10
1.95
1990
2.65
.14
.17
2.96
Assuming 56 percent of income goes to retail sales. Revenues
geographically distributed proportionally to population
These are the only jurisdictions in the region which currently
levy a sales tax.
steady-state distributions. Expected income tax revenues are
$1.9 million in 1978, $5.4 million in 1980, $6.6 million in 1983,
$5.9 million in 1985, and $8.9 million in 1990. Sales taxes are
detailed in Table 8-39. Some undetermined portion of this addi-
tionaj revenue is overestimated because some of the immigrating
workers will leave other jobs in other parts of Colorado to work
on these energy projects.
Finally, all state and local revenues can be summarized by
jurisdiction. These are shown in Table 8-40 and can be compared
TABLE 8-40: SUMMARY OF REVENUES DUE TO ENERGY FACILITIES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
State of Colorado3
school districts
Rio Blanco
Garfield
Grand Junction
County and Municipal
Rio Blanco
Garfield
Grand Junction
1978
2.5
2.9
.10
.51
1.6
.07
.38
1980
11.4
6.3
.36
.92
3.4
.24
.72
1983
12.9
15.5
1.36
1.62
7.2
.91
1.26
1985
16.2
19.4
2.05
1.99
8.7
1.23
1.50
1990
11.7
19.7
16.9
3.18
9
7.6
2.40
Including portions of royalties earmarked for local assistance,
420
-------
with anticipated expenditures for these jurisdictions. It is
immediately apparent that school districts in Rio Blanco County
will derive substantial fiscal advantages from the projected
developments.1 For example, in 1990, new operating expenditures
in Meeker and Rangely will be at a rate of $6.4 million per year,
while new revenues'for these districts total $19.7 million. Mill
levies could be reduced and capital requirements still be met on
a pay-as-you-go basis. Garfield County districts will also enjoy
surpluses eventually but may face deficits before the large oil
shale facility comes on-line in 1990. (The oil shale facility is
the only energy facility located in Garfield County in this sce-
nario.) In 1985, the Rifle and Grand Valley districts will need
an additional $3 million over current operating budgets, while
new revenues only reach $2.05 million. Further, $2.25 million in
new facilities will be needed by that date. The prospect of $16". 9
million per year in new revenues after 1990 may provide a basis
for borrowing in the interim.2 County and municipal governments
in these counties show fiscal patterns similar to the school
districts. Grand Junction (in Mesa County) occupies an inter-
mediate position, with moderate revenue increases ($1.50 million
by 1985, $2.40 million by 1990).
If Colorado state government maintains its current rate of
expenditures ($1,125 per capita), and if no more than one-fourth
of the people new to this area come from out of state, then the
state government will experience positive fiscal benefits. Any
immigration rate much greater than 25 percent would lead to new
expenses exceeding new revenues.
8.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts
The primary societal effects of energy resource development
in western Colorado should be related to the economic changes in
the area. Shifts from an agricultural and tourism base to a
resource-extraction base will alter the political base and social
relations of the population over the long term. Conflicts
between newcomers and long-time residents is most likely in Rio
Blanco County where newcomers will outnumber oldtimers before
1980. Other conflicts between these groups of residents are
likely, at least in the short term, because of the strain put on
1Compare Table 8-40 with Table 8-31.
o
Note that some of the state government's royalty share is
earmarked for local impact mitigation.
421
-------
local services by the population increase.1 A large cluster of
mobile homes may prove to be undesirable to both inhabitants and
close neighbors. Finally, the cost of living generally rises
faster than the incomes of long-time residents; this is espe-
cially true for persons on fixed incomes who comprise a signifi-
cant proportion of the present population. However, in general,
social impacts in the Rifle area will probably be less severe
than was thought a few years ago.2
The quality of life as perceived by people in the Rifle area
would undergo some changes because of energy development. The
present residents like the small community size and environmental
quality of the area but, some are dissatisfied with the range of
shopping and entertainment facilities. Thus, the population
growth expected with energy development, especially during the
construction phase, will have a negative effect on the area's
quality of life for some residents, but others will welcome the
accompanying increase in the number and range of goods and ser-
vices available locally. For example, educational services for
adults are likely to be expanded by Colorado Northwestern Commun-
ity College in Rangely. Rangely and Meeker will be most impacted
by 1980 (in this scenario), after which a new stability will be
difficult to achieve until after 1990. The shift in the eco-
nomic base from agriculture and tourism will be indicative of the
shifts in lifestyles for people in the area as more seasonally
stable industries replace the dependence on the traditional lines
of work.
A particular problem in rapid growth communities is a
degeneration of telephone service, suggesting that private indus-
try also has a lead time problem in coping with new demands from
growth. See U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Inde-
pendence Blueprint Final Task Force Report; Potential Future Role
of Oil Shale; Prospects and Constraints. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 246.
2Compare FEA. PIB Report: Oil Shale. Pp. 238-258; and
University of Denver, Research Institute; Resource Planning Asso-
ciates; and Socioeconomic Associates. Socioeconomic and Second-
ary Environmental Impacts of Western Energy Resource Development,
Working Paper, for the U.S. Council on Envrionmental Quality.
Denver, Colo.: University of Denver Research Institute, 1976,
pp. VII-1 to VII-11.
3
Bickert, Carl von E. Attitudes and Opinions Related to the
Development of an Oil Shale Industry, for the Oil Shale Regional
Planning Commission and the Colorado West Area Council of Govern-
ments. Denver, Colo.: Bickert, Browne and Coddington and Asso-
ciates, Inc., 1973.
422
-------
8.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
As shown in the preceding analysis, energy development in
Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will lead to demands for new
public facilities and services. Communities in the two counties
will be forced to expand their water and sewer systems before the
population arrives; capital will be needed for health care facil-
ities; and fire and police protection will have to expand. Each
of these.demands requires increasing government activity and
expenditures at the local level. However, a major problem for
the communities is their lack of planning resources and infra-
structure to prepare for and manage rapid population growth.
This lack, together with the anticipated expenditure needs dis-
cussed above, suggests that fiscal and planning shortfalls are
likely.
Although school districts and the two counties will enjoy
long-term revenue benefits from the projected development, the
Garfield County districts will face deficits before the energy
facilities are assessed and placed on the tax rolls. That is,
front-end financial problems and the manner in which revenues are
distributed from both the state and the counties will greatly
influence the net fiscal status of the localities and districts
during the short-term construction period, especially those out-
side the'-immediate vicinity of a mining activity. The creation
of a new town or planned subdivisions financed largely by indus-
try near Grand Valley could alleviate many of the problems antic-
ipated for that community. Rifle and Meeker will be able to han-
dle the impact to a greater extent primarily because of their
expected growth as service centers. The service-related growth
of these two municipalities will help to balance the population
pressure in western Colorado and will provide the towns addi-
tional tax revenues to finance capital improvements and public
services.
Another impact category which will involve government is the
demand for housing and mobile home subdivisions to accommodate
temporary and longer term workers. Colorado provides minimum
standards for subdivision design, platting, provision of util-
ities, open space, and similar control criteria. The Department
of Local Affairs within the state's Division of Housing serves
as the administrative organization to assist in the establish-
ment and financing of needed housing. In addition, Colorado's
Housing Finance Corporation can help alleviate low and middle
income housing needs by securing home mortgage money for tradi-
tional lending institutions in rural areas. Since a number of the
energy-impacted communities must rely on mobile homes to meet
temporary population growth, it is significant that Colorado has
adopted mobile home construction standards for all mobile homes
sold, in the state. Of more critical concern, however, is the
423
-------
need to assure adequate enforcement of construction standards and
the provision of now non-existent mobile home park codes or design
criteria.
The most important political impacts are related to land use
in the area and the effect of energy development on ranchers.
Politically, the rancher-dominated system will be strained by
newcomers almost from the beginning of construction. As develop-
ment progresses, urban centers will acquire a larger proportion
of voters and, hence, political influence in the counties. This
shift can begin as early as 1980 in Rio Blanco County when a
large number of new permanent workers and their families are
present. These potential political effects will be studied in
more detail during the remainder of the study.
8.4.9 Summary of Significant Social, Economic, and Political
Impacts
The Rifle scenario energy development will increase the
population of western Colorado by 46,000 people, 17,000 of whonu
will be in the area by 1980. The early increase, consisting
largely of construction workers, will require 4,700 homes, at
least 40 percent of which may be mobile homes. As construction
workers are replaced by operational employees, the proportion of
mobile homes should decline to about 13 percent of total housing.
School enrollment will increase through 1995 and subside after
that. The long-term capital need for education will be about
$11-14 million by 1990; operating expenditures will more than
triple for the school districts serving Rifle and Grand Valley.
The towns of Meeker, Rangely, Rifle, and Grand Valley likewise
will receive the bulk of the population impact from development.
The long-term income benefit to Rifle area residents is
estimated to be about a 13-percent increase; during construction
the increase will be up to 28 percent. Some local inflation will
reduce the latter to the long-term level. Grand Junction, the
economic service center for the area, also will receive some
commercial benefits from these energy developments.
Local governments will require greatly expanded facilities
to serve the local population increases, especially in water and
sewage treatment. In fact, about $19 million will be needed
primarily by Meeker and Rangely by 1980; an additional $12 mil-
lion will be needed by Rifle and Grand Valley by 1990. Construc-
tion for other services will require about $10 million by 1990 in
the two counties.
The change from an agricultural and tourism base to an energy
development base will have social as well as economic effects.
Population concentrations and conflicts over agricultural land in
424
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population expansion areas will require adjustments within the
local area. The overall planning capacity of local governments
appears to be inadequate to manage growth in the area.
8.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
8.5.1 Introduction
The area considered for ecological impacts in the Rifle sce-
nario extends from the Colorado-Utah state line eastward to the
middle of the White River National Forest, and from Grand Mesa
on the south to the northern Moffat County line.l
The complex topography of the area varies from river valleys
at 4,700 feet to mountains higher than 11,000 feet. Both rain-
fall and temperature vary with topography; conditions are rela-
tively drier and warmer at lower altitudes than at higher alti-
tudes. The structures of the area's varied soils reflect the
combined influence of biological conditions, weather, and topo-
graphy, in the study area, the principal influences controlling
the development of biological communities are slope, elevation,
and exposure. Forestry, agriculture, and grazing have a locally
important influence.
8.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
Vegetation types correspond approximately to altitude and
exposure. The major types in order of elevation are: riparian
(streamside) and agricultural bottomlands; salt desert shrub;
sagebrush communities; pinyon-juniper woodland, mixed mountain
brush areas; mid-elevation coniferous forest; and subalpine
coniferous forest. Mixtures of types are often found together in
patches. The dominant species characteristic of these biological
communities are summarized in Table 8-41.
Although widely distributed, most smaller animals generally
live within a single community. However, some birds and most big
game species range more widely. Deer mice are abundant at
almost all elevations. The larger mammals (such as deer, elk,
bear, and mountain lions) generally move freely between zones but
use them selectively and during different seasons. Fifty-four
species of mammals, 260 species of birds, and 13 species of rep-
tiles and amphibians have been reported for the area. Rare or
endangered terrestrial species include the bald eagle, and peregrine
falcon; the black-footed ferret may also be present.
Aquatic habitats vary from temporary creeks and small per-
manent streams such as Parachute and Piceance Creeks to the
area's two major rivers, the Colorado and the White. Both
A large area was considered due to the extensive influence
of increased human populations.
425
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TABLE 8-41:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, RIFLE SCENARIO
Community Type
Characteristic
Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Riparian
(bottomlands)
Crops
Cottonwood
Box elder
Willow species
Green ash
Muskrat
Raccoon
Snakes (e.g., common
garter)
Amphibians (e.g.,
tiger salamander
Songbirds (e.g.,
yellow-throat)
Salt desert shrub
Cropland
(some irrigated)
Shadscale
Greasewood
Fourwing saltbush
Nuttall saltbush
Lizards (e.g.,
horned)
Kangaroo rat
Jackrabbit
Gray fox
short-
Sagebrush
Big sage
Silver sage
Rabbitbrush
Bitterbrush
Antelope
Mule deer (winter)
Blue and sage grouse
Sagebrush lizard
Brewers blackbird
Sage sparrow
Pinyon-juniper
Pinyon pine
Utah juniper
Bitterbrush
Mountain mahogany
Rabbitbrush
Blue and sage grouse
Mountain cottontail
Scrub jay
Least chipmunk
Mule deer
Elk (winter)
Mountain brush
Serviceberry
Mountain mahogany
Chokecherry
Snowberry
Gambel oak
Deer (migratory or
winter)
Chickadees
Kinglets
Gray jay, Steller's
jay
Mid-elevation
Ponderosa pine
Douglas fir
Snowberry
Mountain maple
Serviceberry
Mule deer (summer)
Elk (summer)
Red squirrel
Lewis' woodpecker
Snowshoe hare
Hawks and owls
Sub-alpine forest
Engelmann spruce
Lodgepole pine
Aspen
Fescut species
Needle grass
Mule deer (summer)
Elk (summer)
Mountain goat
Bighorn sheep
Red fox
Hawks and owls
Clark's nutcracker
426
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cold-water and warm-water fishes inhabit these streams, including
trout, mountain whitefish, bluehead sucker, channel catfish,
Colorado squawfish and carp.
8.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
During the 1975-1980 time period of this hypothetical sce-
nario, a 1,000-MWe (megawatts-electric) power plant will be built
east of Meeker. This plant and its associated coal mine will
remove a total of 830 acres of vegetation; transmission lines (to
the vicinity of the oil shale facilities) will alter another 750
acres. Table 8-42 summarizes vegetation loss for this and the
succeeding decade.
Water withdrawn from the White River at a rate of 13.1-19.4
cubic feet per second (cfs) will supply the power plant. The
human population is expected to grow by 16,400 people, an
increase of 25 percent, requiring an additional withdrawal of
1.3 cfs from the Colorado River and roughly 2.0 cfs from the
White River.1 Non-urban populations are expected to use ground-
water (Section 6.3).
During the 1980-1990 decade, two oil shale mines and retort-
ing plants will come on-line, and the plant sites, mine surface
facilities, and spent shale disposal areas will occupy 4,570
acres. Product pipelines will affect roughly 450 acres. Roads
in the area will be upgraded, especially those extending up the
TABLE 8-42;
VEGETATION LOSSES:'
(acres)
RIFLE SCENARIO
Community Type
Mountain brush
Sagebrush
P inyon- j uniper
Salt desert shrub
Riparian and agricultural
Total
1975-1980
1,420
110
50
1,580
1980-1990
1,540
170
3,240
70
710
5,730
Cumulative
Total
2,960
280
3,290
70
710
7,310
Includes temporary losses for transmission lines, since revege-
tation of rights-of-way will not restore the original habitat.
This calculation is based on distribution of urban popula-
tions by watershed, assuming a yearly demand of 140 acre-ft per
thousand population.
427
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Parachute and Piceance Creek Valleys; a new road connecting
Rangely with the Piceance Creek plant site is also postulated.
In addition to providing access, rights-of-way from these roads
will also contain water pipelines and portions of product pipe-
lines. Together, these facilities will occupy approximately 710
acres, of which about half are already cleared. A planned road
connecting the town of Rangely to the Piceance Creek site will
remove another 160 acres. Water for the Parachute Creek complex
will be withdrawn from the Colorado River at a rate of 8.5-10.0
cfs. The Piceance Creek complex will rely on groundwater. A
crude-oil field located near Rangely will occupy a total of 850
acres, mostly in scattered parcels of a quarter acre.
During the last decade of the scenario, the area's popula-
tion will grow by another 8,100, bringing the cumulative increase
in municipal water demand from the Colorado River to 6.9 cfs and
from the White River to 2.3 cfs. No additional facilities will
be built.
8.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The most immediate impact of constructing the hypothetical
1,000-MWe power plant at Meeker will be the loss of the site's
natural vegetation, chiefly consisting of-sagebrush and mountain
shrub. This area, managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
is presently grazed in spring and fall by cattle and sheep and is
kept stocked below its carrying capacity (based on forage pro-
duction alone) to preserve wildlife and watershed values. The
forage produced on the 830-acre plant site is roughly equivalent
to food consumed in a year by 6-12 cows with calves, or 30-60
sheep.1 However, since the land is not grazed all year, a large
number of livestock using the area as seasonal pasture could be
affected, depending on how long they remain. Grazing is not
precluded on transmission line rights-of-way, and grazing values
can be restored with proper reclamation practice to a level
similar to that which existed before the line was built. How-
ever, during the period of construction, and until revegetation
Based on the carrying capacity of the land in acres per
animal unit month (AUM), as furnished by the Bureau of Land
Management (White River Resource Area personnel, personal commun-
ication, 1976). An AUM, a unit of forage production, is the
amount of food consumed by a cow with calf, or five sheep in a
month. Because of differences in food habits, the unit cannot
generally be extended to wild grazing animals. Potential forage
losses calculated in AUM's are independent of season. A total of
70-140 AUM's may be lost from the plant site, and a maximum of
100-140 AUM's from clearing the transmission line right-of-way.
428
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is complete, grazing will be curtailed on the roughly 750 acres
of right-of-way. Forage production losses will be roughly equiv-
alent to the yearly needs of 5-7 cows with calves, with the same
seasonal provisions as applied at the plant Site. Grazing would
resume in several years, and electric field effects from the high
voltage lines (described in Section 12.7) should not reduce
yields.
The impacts of habitat removal on small non-game species
that do not occupy large ranges will probably be localized, not
affecting populations on adjacent undisturbed areas. These local
losses will not adversely affect predators that use them as food.
The plant site is located within a large elk winter range.
The total area affected is small—less than 0.5 percent of the
total winter range unit—but human activity may cause elk to stay
as much as a half mile from the construction site. The impact
of these factors alone, in terms of elk populations, cannot be
quantified with available data but would probably be small com-
pared to overall herd size.
While the activities of construction workers will have
negligible impacts on most non-game species outside the immediate
plant site, several-fold increases in big game poaching are
typically observed around large construction projects in the
West.l For these species, the impact of illegal kills will prob-
ably be more significant with respect to areawide populations
than habitat loss.2 other than big game animals, the only other
species which are subject to local reductions by illegal shooting
are large birds of prey, including hawks and eagles.
By 1980, the population of the scenario area is expected to
increase by some 16,400 people. This increase, together with
growing use by out-of-state visitors, will place additional
demands on mountain habitats for dispersed backcountry recrea-
tional activities. Designated wilderness areas will receive
Personal Communication, Grand Junction Field Office Staff,
Colorado Division of Wildlife, 1976.
2
Poaching has a much more severe impact than legitimate
hunting in that it affects game of both sexes and occurs through-
out the year. Removal of pregnant females and non-breeding young
can affect the ability of the population to maintain adequate
breeding stock. Legitimate hunting is regulated so as to assure
the presence of enough breeding adults to regenerate the herd
year after year.
429
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especially heavy demand.1 Recreational activities with a poten-
tial for altering wildlife distribution patterns include: camp-
ing and fishing, which tend to cause selective deterioration of
delicate riparian and lakeshore habitats; off-road vehicles (ORV)
use: and hiking and backpacking. Certain heavily used areas are
already beginning to show visible signs of deterioration.2
Recreational opportunities offered by the White River and
Grand Mesa National Forests tends to draw visitors from all over
the nation. As a regional recreational focus, the scenario area
receives a strong impact from the metropolitan centers along
Colorado's Front Range as well as from the Western Slope. Since
a large proportion of forest visitors reside outside the scenario
development, it is not possible to calculate the impact of adding
16,400 people in the area's resident population. However, it can
be noted that this population change will have a disproportion-
ately large impact on National Forest use because residents will
use the forests repeatedly, rather than once or twice yearly.
Also, persons visiting new residents may help to swell the number
of forest visitors.
Increased human presence in mountainous backcountry tends to
lead to withdrawal of sensitive species away from areas of activ-
ity. Species considered sensitive to this type of disturbance
include mountain lion, pine marten, bear, and elk. The diversity
and abundance of small mammals and birds may be decreased on a
local scale around heavily used areas. Snowmobile use, although
usually concentrated in areas of deep snow avoided by migratory
wildlife in winter, can be particularly stressful to big game
animals.
Deer and elk normally winter at different elevations, which
permits them to share the available winter habitat. Depending
on the degree to which elk are disturbed in wintering areas,
Two areas certain to be used more intensely are Snowmass/
Maroon Bells and Flat Tops—the Elk Creek and Canyon Creek drain-
ages. Three areas adjacent to Snowmass/Maroon Bells are also
likely to be used extensively, particularly if they are desig-
nated as wilderness areas (a possibility which is currently being
considered). Another area not classified as wilderness but also
susceptible to heavy recreational use is the Grand Mesa National
Forest immediately south of Rifle.
2
For example, along the Canyon del Diablo portion of Main
Elk Creek which lies in the scenario area, excessive use since
1972 has led to serious erosion problems along roads and trails.
Increased fishing in Main Elk Creek has already reduced the
quality of the trout fishery. Todd, J. "We're Losing the Wild
in the Wilderness." Colorado Outdoors, Vol. 25 (March/ April
1976), pp. 10-11.
430
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movement of these animals to lower elevations could bring them
into direct competition with deer, which may suffer as a result.
There is also some circumstantial evidence that displacement of
elk by heavy recreational activity in their high-elevation summer
range and calving ground may be associated with declines in over-
all numbers.-'- With existing controls on use, continued deteri-
oration in habitat quality may be expected in wilderness areas.
Recreational vehicle use of the rugged lands of the Roan
Plateau and adjacent uplands may increase. Much of this region
is presently accessible by road or trail, and most of this land
is under BLM control which has limited personnel for adequate
enforcement. Besides supporting a diverse small-vertebrate
fauna, these lands constitute a major mule deer winter range;
inadvertent or intentional harassment by ORV users could result
indirectly in the loss of an unquantifiable number of animals.3
B. Impacts to 1990
The two oil shale mines and plants will come on-line between
1980 and 1990. Together, plant sites, surface facilities for the
mines, and spent shale disposal areas will occupy 1,500 acres of
predominantly mountain brush vegetation and 3,070 acres of what
is now pinyon-juniper woodland. Product pipelines will remove
roughly 70 acres of mountain brush, 170 acres of sage, 70 acres
of saltbrush/greasewood vegetation, and 170 acres of pinyon-
juniper. New roads will occupy a total of approximately 710
acres in the riparian/agricultural zone but will remove substan-
tially less than that amount of vegetation (probably only about
360 acres) because the widths of the existing roads are already
cleared. A new road connecting the town of Rangely to the
Piceance Creek site will remove 240 acres of mixed pinyon-juni-
per and upland sagebrush.
The lands affected by the combined plant and mine sites and
their associated support facilities are presently grazed season-
ally under BLM management and are stocked at less than carrying
capacity. Forage produced is equivalent to the amount consumed
annually by roughly 50-60 cows with calves, or 250-300 sheep.
San Juan National Forest Staff, personal communication, 1976.
2
The White River National Forest has no current plans to
institute a backcountry permit system. Colorado Division of
Wildlife Staff, personal communication, 1976.
3
During the late winter months, deer are usually in their
poorest condition. Avoiding off-road vehicle pursuit, especially
by snowmobiles, may debilitate weakened individuals sufficiently
to reduce their resistance to disease.
431
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The oil field development around Rangely will disturb a
total of 850 acres, divided between the oil wells them-
selves and the gathering pipelines connecting them.
Grazing domestic animals will not be curtailed by this activity,
although the total forage produced by the affected range—pri-
marily winter sheep range kept 25-30 percent understocked—will
be reduced by roughly the equivalent of the annual requirements
of 3-5 cows-with-calves. Due to the seasonal use of these lands,
however, carrying capacity may be reduced by more than this num-
ber of animals.
The vegetational diversity of this area provides habitat
for a variety of small vertebrates. As discussed above with
respect to the power plant, the loss of approximately 5,000 acres
of habitat, although its local impact is high, will not threaten
the stability of areawide populations. Predator populations and
wintering birds or prey may be less frequent locally as their
prey base declines, but areawide populations will probably remain
stable.
As in the case of the power plant, the introduction of large
construction forces will probably be associated with increased
big game poaching. Particularly vulnerable (because of their
proximity to urban concentrations) are the elk which winter in
the Roan Plateau and adjacent highlands, the deer wintering in
the foothills north of the Colorado River Valley and Grand
Valley, and antelope in Grand Valley proper. Poaching could
result in declines in all these populations by 1990. Hawks—
the other main target of illegal shooting—could also be reduced
in numbers, at least around urban areas. Bald eagles wintering
along the White River between Meeker and the Piceance Creek, and
south of Rangely, are likely to be particularly vulnerable.
The additional auto traffic in and out of the two oil shale
plant/mine complexes will also have an additional adverse influ-
ence on wildlife, particularly on mule deer which concentrate
in the Parachute Creek Valley during the winter. Initially,
roadkills of wildlife will increase sharply. As many as 100 deer
may be killed in the first year or two of heavy traffic in Para-
chute Creek.1 Subsequently, deer may begin to avoid their old
winter concentration areas and attempt to winter in adjacent
habitats.
Colony Development Operation, Atlantic Richfield Company.
An Environmental Impact Analysis for a Shale Oil Complex at
Parachute Creek, Colorado, Part I: Plant Complex and Service
Corridor. Denver, Colo.: Atlantic Richfield, 1974; and U.S.,
Department of the Interior. Final Environmental Statement for
the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program,2 vols.Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973.
432
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Following the opening of the Piceance Creek oil shale plant,
an additional impact will arise from the depletion of ground-
water withdrawn from the Green River aquifer to meet the plant's
requirements. As indicated in Section 8.3.4, some hydrologists
believe that 10 miles of the upper Piceance Creek, and sur-
rounding springs and seeps, may ultimately be dewatered by
aquifer depletion. I/ 2 Water quality in the lower portion, lacking
the normal dilution, will show increased dissolved solids. When
pumping stops, the normal groundwater regime is expected to
restore itself in roughly a decade.
The effect of this dewatering on vegetation will be con-
fined primarily to the riparian and agricultural areas. Deteri-
orated water quality could curtail irrigation in the remainder of
the drainage. This will probably result in a shift in vegetation
from cultivated grasses to one of the two major native valley
floor associations: sagebrush and saltbush-greasewood. Accumu-
lation of salts in irrigated soils may favor the latter.
Some species of terrestrial animals will be affected
directly by the loss of these valley vegetation types. This
includes muskrat, raccoon, other stream-side mammals of medium
size, and the characteristic small bird species of riparian
woodlands. Small mammals, which are abundant in irrigated hay-
lands, will be reduced in numbers, which may in turn lead to
locally reduced numbers of predators and wintering birds of prey.
While the upland vegetation may persist without change, the
loss of accessible water from springs and streams will probably
alter the composition and perhaps the abundance of their animal
communities. For example, sage grouse and blue grouse require
moist areas with plentiful succulent vegetation and accessible
water during the brood-rearing phase of their life cycle. A
sage grouse brood-rearing area lying along the southern edge of
the Piceance basin will probably be abandoned if its springs are
Dewatering the Parachute Creek aquifer will induce a simi-
lar but less extensive effect in Parachute Creek. A 55-70 per-
cent flow reduction in Middle Fork below Davis Gulch is expected,
but reduction in the flow of Parachute Creek will be only about
2.5 percent. Springs and seeps at the head of the Parachute
Creek drainage will also cease flowing. U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact
Statement; Proposed Development of Oil Shale Resources by the
Colony Development Operation in Colorado. Washington, D.C.:
Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
2
Energy Research and Development Administration. Personnel
at the Laramie Research Center believe that these estimates of
stream dewatering are excessive. Personal communication, Decem-
ber 1976.
433
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lost, in winter, mule deer can probably obtain their water needs
from snow or meltwater? thus, the large populations wintering
there might not be seriously affected by groundwater depletion.
However, deer may cease to use some of the area in summer.
Cumulative water demands on the White River will reduce flows
22-30 cfs between Meeker and the mouth of Piceance Creek. This
loss amounts to a negligible percentage of the river's average
flow of 609 cfs below Meeker. During periods of low flow (July
through August), total discharge may be reduced by roughly 7
percent during an average year and by as much as 18 percent
during exceptionally dry years.l
Reduced flows may result in slight increases in salinity
downstream. Due to dewatering, the sport fishery in the Piceance
Creek, which includes brown, rainbow, and brook trout and moun-
tain whitefish, will probably be lost or degraded. More adapt-
able, non-game species may remain.
The potential ecological impact of flow reduction in the
White River is impossible to quantify with available data. Flow-
reduction sufficient to result in ecological stress is not
likely to occur every year. In-stream flow needs for main-
taining the aquatic community have not been established for the
White River. Lowered current velocity will reduce populations of
organisms living on sediment-free stream bottoms fed on by fish
and limit fish spawning or nesting habitat.
The two oil shale complexes will dispose of spent shale in
on-site impoundments; catastropic failures of these impoundments
are unlikely during the 30 years of plant operation.2 However,
should such an event occur (most probably as a result of a flash
flood), spent shale from the Parachute Creek disposal pile could
be carried as far as the Colorado River, and Piceance shale could
reach the White River. The fine-grained shale could physically
obliterate existing bottom communities in Parachute Creek, ren-
dering them unstable and reducing productivity for several years.
Heavy metals in the shale could be slowly released into the
aquatic environment, possibly contaminating the food chain if
present in sufficient quantities. Also, there is evidence that
carbonaceous spent shales of the type produced by the TOSCO II
Period of record for the White River below Meeker does not
permit estimation of the frequency of such years. A second low-
discharge period occurs in January and February.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment . Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Develop-
ment of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation
in Colorado. Washington, D.C.s Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
434
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process contain at least moderately carcinogenic substances which
are water soluble and subject to leaching.1
Salts (such as the sulfates of sodium, potassium/ calcium,
and magnesium) trace elements (such as beryllium, fluorine,
nickel, copper, zinc, and lead), and potentially cancer producing
polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons contained in the retorted shale
piles could possibly find their way into ground and surface
waters through percolation and runoff. However, this movement
can be restricted by such methods as compaction of the shale,
channeling of underflow or groundwater drainage, and use of
catchment dams to impound seepage. When abandoned, the spent
shale pile could be sealed with a bertunite clay or a similar
material, covered with a blanket of inert material such as sand,
and layered with topsoil before being resealed. These alterna-
tive treatments stabilize the surface, reduce leaching, and
lower the chance of erosion-2 to control the movement of soluble
contaminants in runoff.
The projected emissions of sulfur dioxide (802) result in
periodic high ground-level concentrations when plumes impact on
adjacent high terrain. The highest projected 3-hour average
(0.7 parts per million arising from the 100,000-bbI/day plant) is
within the range causing acute damage in experiments with pon-
derosa pine. The sensitivities of other woody plants in the
area are either lower or have not been tested. The area of
vegetation damage would probably be less than 1 to 2 square
miles. Ground-level concentrations near the smaller plant are
not high enough to suggest such acute damage, although chronic
impacts (resulting in reduced growfch, vigor, and resistance to
disease) cannot be ruled out. Slight to negligible soil acidi-
fication^ could also result from a combination of dry deposition
of particulate sulfates filtered out by vegetation and rainout
of sulfates and S02 - Total scenario SC>2 emissions are probably
not high enough to result in acid rain problems, although acid
mists could form locally under certain conditions.
Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J. The Disposal and Environmental
Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research
Institute, 1974.
2
Pfeffer, Fred M. Pollutional Problems and Research Needs
for an Oil Shale Industry, EPA-660/2-74-067. Ada, Okla.:
Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory, 1974.
Acidifying the soil with sulfates is thought to increase
the rate at which nutrients are lost from the soil by leaching.
435
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Alkaline shale dusts and salts carried in cooling tower
drift also damage vegetation. Processed shale resembles cement-
kiln dust, which is thought to cause premature needle-drop in
conifers,! would be confined to the immediate plant and spent
shale disposal areas. The effect of salt deposition around
cooling towers would also be confined to an area within a few
hundred yards in the direction of prevailing winds. The highest
salt deposition rates will be associated with the power plant;
the larger oil shale complex at Piceance Creek will have the next
highest level, and the lowest level will occur at the Parachute
Creek oil shale plant.
Accidental rupture of product pipelines could release quan-
tities of oil or ammonia into the Parachute Creek drainage area.
The effects of such a spill could be both acute (from introduc-
ing water-soluble toxins into the aquatic ecosystem) and chronic
(from fouling of .the bottom by oil).2 Relatively small spills
might result in possible fish kills.3 Following a spill which
entered one of the flowing rivers or streams in the scenario
area, oil would tend to collect in the quiet backwaters used by
young fish and could foul productive riffle areas.
The bulk of the human population influx into the scenario
area is expected by 1990. Most changes associated with urban
growth should be apparent by 1985, although they intensify some-
what later. In addition to urban growth, this increase will add
to existing demands for recreational and second home sites.
Areas most affected by this kind of growth will include the
White River valley east of Meeker, the Glenwood Springs area,
and the Rifle area.
The major impacts of urban and residential growth on animals
arise through fragmentation of habitat; for example, where
foothills used as winter deer range are subdivided for recrea-
tional homesites and local intensification of such activities as
ORV and trail bike use and similar miscellaneous disturbances.
U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public
Health Service. Air Quality Criteria for Particulate Matter,
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication No.
AP-49. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Ser-
vice, 1969.
2
Raw shale oil also typically contains carcinogenic com-
pounds .
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment . Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Develop-
ment of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation
in Colorado. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
436
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and foothill habitats, which contain the most developable
lands, are most vulnerable to this type of deterioration.
Fragmentation of biological communities is likely to have
the greatest impact in the White River valley east of Meeker,
and species with large ranges will be most affected. For exam-
ple, according to the Colorado Division of Wildlife personnel,
30-50 percent of the elk herd in the White River National Forest
winter on private lands, and available winter range is thought
to limit the size of this herd. Elk are sensitive to human dis-
turbance and tend to move completely away from areas with
increased levels of activity.-1- Therefore, the impact of energy-
related habitat fragmentation and clearing will be greater than
the proportion of acreage involved. Mule deer winter range will
also be affected. Deer are less liable to wholesale emigration
in response to habitat fragmentation, but some measurable reduc-
tion in numbers is probably inevitable.
Urban development will occur primarily in the major river
valleys, and fragmentation will probably affect species typical
of the cultivated valley lands. However, these species are
adapted to fragmented habitat, although the chukar partridge,
a bird with narrow habitat requirements, is likely to be elim-
inated locally near Grand Junction. This could reduce the total
breeding population slightly. Beaver remaining in the valley
might also suffer from clearing of riparian vegetation, which is
their primary food source.
C. Impacts to 2000
No new facilities will be added during the 1990-2000 time
period, although population will continue to climb, resulting
in a cumulative increase of 45,900 persons areawide. The impacts
described above that result from urban/residential development
and increased recreational demand will continue to intensify.
The impacts of the Rifle scenario are quite complex. Table
8-43 summarizes these impacts on several selected animal species,
By 2000, their cumulative effects on several species of interest
to man will be as follows.
1. Game Species
While not significantly affected by any of the impacts of
energy facilities, elk may experience range displacement, and
This statement represents the current conventional wisdom;
recent observations at Glenwood Springs and Steamboat Springs
have indicated that elk may return to such ranges after a few
years (Colorado Division of Wildlife, Grand Junction, personal
communication), 1976.
437
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TABLE 8-43: FORECASTS OF STATUS OF SELECTED SPECIES
Cace Species
Elk
Hale deer
(white Rivar herd unit)
Antelope
Bighorn sheep
Mountain lion
Waterfowl
Upland Cane birds
(Sage and blue grouse.
pheasant, Garabel's c^iail, •
chukar)
Rare or endangered species
Bald eagle3
Black-footed ferret"
Peregrine falcon*
Colorado squawfish*
Hurapback chub
Humpback sucker
Other Uncommon Species
Colorado cutthroat trout
Prairie falcon, ferruginous
hawk
1930
Possible redistribution around Meeker
due to habitat fragmentation, poach-
ing. Continued regional increase.
Decline in wintering populations in
upper White River, due to habitat
fragmentation, poaching.
Slight decline in Grand Valley from
habitat fragmentation, poaching.
Little change.
Little change.
Slight decline in wintering goose
populations near Meeker.
Slight reductions from over shoot-
ing or poaching near Meeker.
Little change.
Little change, if present.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change. "~-
Little change.
Slight local declines around Keeker,
if present, by illegal shooting.
1990
Continued displacement extending
between Grand Junction and Glenwood
Springs. Possible competition with
de«r at lower elevations. Continued
increase or stable population numbers.
Smull declines in summer populations
in Piceance creek due to dewatering;
continued declines of Upper White
River. Possible additional decline
due to competition with elk.
Continued slight decline.
Little change.
Slight decline related to reduction
in deer numbers.
Continued slight to moderate decline
near Meeker.
Moderate reduction on grouse popula-
tions in Piceance Creek due to
dewatering. Poaching losses- near
Rsngely and. Meeker. Decline in
quail and chukar from, habitat
less in Grand Valley.
Slight to moderate decline in
White River Valley and near Meeker.
Lxttle change, if present.
Possible loss from disturbance
or, peregrines on east fork of
Parachute Creek, if nesting.
Little change.
Little, change.
Little change.
Slight declines in birds winter-
ing in the Piceanca Creek Valley
because of decline In prey base.
2000
No further major impacts. Population
trends continue to be governed by
natural factors.
No further major impacts. Continued
slight decline or restoration of
natural factors as population controls.
Continued slight decline.
Little change.
Continued stable or slight decline.
Continued stable or slight decline.
Continued declines from habitat lose
due to progressive urbanization, '
dewatering.
Continued slight decline or possible
stabilization.
Little change, if present.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Continued slight declines in birds in
Piceance Creek Valley from decline in
prey base.
'Listed by U.S. Fi»h and Wildlife Sarvic*.
bH»tad by the State of Colorado.
-------
possible direct reductinn in numbers, as a result of population
growth. Mule deer population trends have been low and decreasing
in recent years, but the reasons for this are not known with
certainty, it appears reasonable to expect an accelerated
decline throughout the study period. Antelope habitat in Grand
Valley, already substantially fragmented by agriculture, will be
further affected by urban and residential growth and probably by
the use of ORV's near population centers. Coupled with poaching
pressure, these influences will probably contribute to an overall
decline in the antelope population throughout the scenario time
frame. 1
2. Rare and Endangered Species
Bald eagles within the scenario area have habitat classified
as critical along the White River between Piceance Creek and
Meeker and three small areas south of Rangley. These areas are
all easily accessible from human population centers, and shoot-
ing will probably reduce the number of eagles using these areas.
Slight to marked declines may be expected from about 1978 through
the scenario time frame.
8.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts
Major ecological impacts are ranked into categories in
Table 8-44. These categories are based upon the extent of com-
munity change and number of species affected. Class A impacts
such as habitat removal or fragmentation or changes caused by
the failure of shale piles or product are the most severe. Class
B impacts locally affect fewer species and include stream flow
depletion and illegal shooting. Impacts which are likely to
affect the fewest animals and are extremely localized, such as
the localized plant damage from plume impaction, are ranked as
Class C.
A fourth category includes impacts that cannot be evaluated
with certainty because adequate understanding of their mechanisms
ia not available. The complex processes that govern the movement
of toxic metal, ions, and organic substances such as may be con-
tained in spent shale piles are not well enough known to deter-
mine whether normal operation will involve a risk of contam-
inating Parachute and Piceance Creeks. Similarly, ignorance of
the quantitative dynamics of acid rain formation and of the
entry of atmospheric sulfates into forest soils means that the
risk of subacute damage to vegetation from SO2 emissions cannot
be assessed when only the amounts of SO2 emitted are known.
Selected additional game species are mentioned in Table
8-43.
439
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TABLE 8-44: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Impact
Category
Class A
Class B
Class C
Uncertain
1975-1980
Illegal shooting
Grazing losses
1980-1990
Pipeline rupture
Dam failure
Habitat frag-
mentation
Flow depletion
White River
Illegal shooting
Increased recre-
ational use of
backcountry
areas
Grazing losses
Localized S02
plant damage
Leaching of
toxins from
spent shale
1990-2000
Pipeline rupture
Dam failure
Habitat fragmen-
tation
Flow depletion
White River
Groundwater
Depletion
Illegal shooting
Increased recre-
ational use of
backcountry
areas
Grazing losses
Loss of irriga-
tion water,
Piceance Creek
Leaching of
toxins from
spent shale
Subacute S02
injury to vege-
tation
S0? = sulfur dioxide
8.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR'THE RIFLE SCENARIO
The developments hypothesized for the Rifle area produce
benefits of 225,000-bbI/day (barrels per day) of oil and 1,000
megawatts of electricity. Most of this energy will be trans-
ported out of the Rifle area and the western region. Average
incomes will increase about 13 percent over present levels, and
economic service activities will be increased. As a result of
increased urbanization, residents in the area will enjoy more
services and amenities, and several existing communities will
either acquire or improve water and sewage treatment facilities,
440
-------
health services, parks, and recreational areas. Communities will
also be able to professionalize their staff, particularly in
planning. Improved roads largely in the river and creek valleys
will make access to recreational areas easier for hunters,
hikers, off-road vehicle enthusiasts, and other potential users.
On the negative side, air pollution impacts in at least two
categories will exceed either Colorado or federal standards.
Colorado sulfur dioxide (802) standards are exceeded by a factor
of 10 by the 1,000-megawatts-electric power plant and a factor
of 8 by the 100,000-bbI/day oil shale facility. The federal
primary standard for hydrocarbons is exceeded, as fugitive emissions
from the 100,000-bb I/day facility produce ambient concentrations
that are 300 times the standard. There may also be an oxidant
problem at Rifle and Grand Valley, visibility in the area will
be reduced, and some Class II significant deterioration incre-
ments are exceeded.
Mine dewatering will lower groundwater tables so that after
several decades, seeps and springs within several miles of the
mine along Piceance Creek may diminish or run dry which may
affect vegetation and animal populations. In the long-term,
processed shale, whether stored on the surface or underground,
will potentially have an impact on groundwater and surface water.
Leachate from both will enter bedrock aquifers and local streams.
It is also likely that, over the long-term, the waste disposal
ponds at the oil shale plants and the power plant will become
sources of contaminants which will infiltrate local aquifers and
possibly migrate into surface streams. The use of surface water
in the Rifle area will also be a significant impact. Using this
water for energy development will deny it to other users.
The most serious fiscal problems are related to providing
the social structure needed to serve the population increase of
45,000 people by 2000. Boom impacts will be those commonly
experienced in communities and areas when rapid, intensive energy
resource development takes place. Some $12-15 million in capital
will be needed to meet expanded education needs; housing will be
inadequate and, during construction, mobile homes will constitute
as much as 40 percent of all housing in the area. As is almost
always the case, local governments are initially ill-equipped to
respond to rapid growth, lacking as they do both adequate profes-
sional staff assistance and the revenues required to expand
existing services or to institute new ones.
Habitat removal from the new population and the energy
facilities will adversely affect both large and small animals,
but changes to animal population will not be large. Larger
stresses to animal life are more likely from additional hunting
and from reduction in stream flow, which may eliminate some
aquatic species and reduce riparian habitat. Plume impaction
from power plants and oil shale facility is likely to produce
441
-------
damage to vegetation in an area up to several square
Process engineering changes and the imposition of ad
environmental control technologies, such as increased
of S02 scrubbers, would lessen air impacts. Some air, wat '
and land impacts can be mitigated by in situ oil shale retorting.
442
-------
CHAPTER 9
THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE GILLETTE AREA
9.1 INTRODUCTION
The hypothetical development proposed in the Gillette
scenario will take place in Campbell County, Wyoming (Figure 9-1) .
This development consists of six surface coal mines, a mine-
mouth electric generation plant, two coal gasification plants, a
coal liquefaction plant, coal export via both rail and slurry
pipeline, natural gas production, a uranium mine, and a uranium
mill.1 As shown in Figure 9-2, all these facilities are located
within 40 miles of Gillette. Although some of the electricity
is to be distributed within Wyoming, most of the energy is to be
transported to demand centers in the Midwest. Construction of
these facilities was to have begun in 1975, and all the facilities
will be in operation by the year 2000. Table 9-1 identifies the
technologies to be used and gives the timetable for their
deployment.
In 1974, Campbell County had a population of 12,000, which
was double its 1960 total. This population influx resulted pri-
marily from the significant energy-related employment opportuni-
ties in the area. The county's 1970 median income was $11,300,
which was higher than both the Wyoming and national medians.
Assessed 1975 valuation was in excess of $32 million, which was
the highest in the state. At current tax rates, this valuation
constitutes a tax base adequate €o provide county social ser-
vices for an increasing population. The county is governed by a
three-member board of commissioners. Currently, all three
commissioners are either ranchers or local businessmen; newcomers
While this hypothetical development may parallel actual
development proposed by Carter Oil Company, Northern Natural
Gas, Black Hills Power and Light, Carter Mining, Atlantic Rich-
field, Wyodak Resources Development, Kerr-McGee, Sunoco Energy
Development, AMAX Coal, El Paso Natural Gas, Falcon Coal, Shell
Oil, and others, the development identified here is hypothetical,
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the
assessment of a particular combination of technologies and
existing conditions.
443
-------
MONTANA
FIGURE 9-1: MAP OF THE GILLETTE SCENARIO AREA
444
-------
MONTANA
WYOMING
l.ii.l I i
I i
5 0
Topography, feet
5 10 15 20
miles
Below 4000
Conveyors
_ « —.Transmission
" Line
FIGURE 9-2: ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE GILLETTE SCENARIO
445
-------
TABLE 9-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT GILLETTE
Resources
Coala (billions of tons)
Resources 1G
Proved Reserves 13
Natural Gas? (trillion standard cubic
feet)
Reserves 3.2
Uranium^ (milliona of tons of ore)
Reserves 353
Technologies
Extraction
Coal
Six cur face mines of varying
capacity using draglines
Uranium
One surface mine using dozers Cor
ore removal
Gas
Completion of 63 wells with a combined
production of 250 MMscfd
Conversion
One natural gas processing plant for the
removal of HjS and natural gas liquids
One Lurgi coal gasification plant opera-
ting at 73% thermal efficiency: nickel-
catalyzed methanation process: Claus
plant «2S removal r and wet forced-draft.
cooling towers
One 3,000 MWe power plant consisting of
four 750 KWe turbine generators; 34%
plant efficiency; 80% efficiency lime-
Stone scrubbers; 99% efficiency electro-
static precipitstor, and vet forced-
draft, cooling towers.
One uranium ore processing plant using
•eld leaching of ore and ammonia 'precipi-
tation to produce 1,000 metric tons of
Yellowcake (U2Og) per year
One Synthane coal gasification plant
operating at -8036 thermal efficiency;
nickel-catalyzed methanation process;
Claus plant H2S removal, and' wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One coal liquefaction plant operating at
92% efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methana-
tion process; Claus plant H2S removal.
and wet forced-draft cooling towers
T ra neport a t ion
Coal
Conveyors from mines to
facilities
Railroad
Slurry Pipeline
Gas
One 36-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Four lines
Characteristics
Coalb
Heat Content 7,900 Btu's/lb
Moiatura 32 %
Volatile Matter 43 %
Fixed Carbon 42 '%
Ash 8 %
Sulfur 0.6 *
Uranium
UjOo Cont.ont O.OT4
Facility
Glee
J5.0 MMtpy
25.0 KMtpy
9.4 HMtpy
12.8 MMtpy
S.I MMtpy
12.1 MMtpy
1,100 tut
6
27
50
250,000 MMscfd
250,000 MMscfd
750 MWo
750 MWo
1,500 MWe
1.000 nt
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
2 SO KMtpy
250 MMtpy
250,000 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
500 kV
500 kV
500 kV (2)
Completion
Date
1900
1005
1905
19B5
1995
2000
1985
1977
1978
1979
1979
1985
1982
1984
1985
1965
1995
2000
1980
1985
1979
2000
1932
1904
1905
Facility
Serviced
Rail Export
Slurry Export
Lurgi plant
Power Plant
Synthane
Syntlioil
uranium
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gaa
Lurgi
Turbine Generator
on-line
Turbine, Generator
on-line
Turbine Generator
on-line
Uranium Mill
Synthane
Synthoil
.-CfiSi
Coal
Gaa
Oil
electricity
Electricity
Electricity
bbl/day *• barrels per day
fitu's/lb *> British thermal units per pound
HJS « hydrogen sulfide
fcV « fcilovolts
MMscfd » million standard cubic feet per day
MMtpy «= million metric tons per year
mt •> metric tons
MWe ** megawatts electric
*Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development. Coal and Ur^nuim_Dcyelgpmcnt of
tlteT_P_owd_fe_r•_..River Da3Jn--An Jitir>nct Analysis. Choyennej Wyo.: Wyoming, Department of Eco-
nomic Planning and Development, 1974.
CtvrtniceX, T.E, , S.J« Ilusek, and C.W, Sandy, Ryaluatjon of Low-Sulfur HoBtorn^Cgal
Ch»ractcrJBLicB, Utilirat ionf and Combust ion F.xpericiico. 1:1'A-6 50/2-7 5-046, Contract No. 68-
02-1302. baiyton, Ohio: Monsanto Reocarch Corporation, 1975. Estimates oro for the Powder
River Basin. Since these values represent averages they do not necousarily sum to 100.
cAiaerican Petroleum Institute. Petroleum Facts and Figures. 1971 cd. Washington, D.C. i
American Petroleum Institute, 1971, p. 114. The value cHed is for the otato of Wyoming.
T),S., Eneif the J-'ranjjirg
jndus.try, J^n. y,_^197^. Grand Junction, Colo.: Encrqy Huwjiirch and Duvclo^ronnt Admini-
stration, 1976," p. 49. Value cited in for $30/lb-U3(J0 ro&urves for tho state o£ Wyoming.
446
-------
have not yet displaced locals as might have been expected.
Although countywide zoning regulation is not practiced, develop-
ment in an area around Gillette is controlled. The county helps
fund Gillette's Department of Planning and Development, which is
currently working on a countywide comprehensive plan.
Gillette, the county seat and the only incorporated town in
Campbell County, had a population of 10,000 in 1975. It is
governed by a mayor and city council. While there is no city
manager, there is a part-time city administrator. The city
provides public safety, water, sewer, sanitation, and electrical
services. Schools are operated by a countywide system, and the
city cooperates with the county to provide animal control, fire
protection, an airport, and snow removal. Both the water and
sewer systems are operating at capacity, and efforts are under
way to expand both.
Most of the area around Gillette is still rural, and
ranching is a major activity. At higher elevations, ponderosa
pine and juniper woodlands predominate. At lower elevations
there are deciduous woodlands along streambeds; however, most of
the area is rangeland. The 4-percent decline in farmland in
Campbell County from 1969 to 1974 is part of a 3-percent decline
throughout Wyoming.
Runoff from the limited rainfall drains northward into the
watersheds of the Powder and Belle Fourche Rivers, both of which
are within the Upper Missouri River Drainage Basin. These sur-
face waters have intermittent flow and are not a reliable and
adequate supply,
Air quality in the region is good, although winter inver-
sions offer the potential fpr periods of pollutant accumulation.
The only existing source of industrial emissions is a small
power plant located west of Gillette. Selected characteristics
of the area are summarized in Table 9-2.
9.2 AIR IMPACTS
9.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Measurements of criteria pollutant-'- concentrations in the
Gillette area indicate that no federal or Wyoming standards are
currently exceeded. Based on these measurements, annual average
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: carbon monoxide, non-methane hydrocarbons,
nitrogen dioxide, oxidants, particulates, and sulfur dioxide. The
term "hydrocarbons" is used to refer to non-methane HC.
447
-------
TABLE 9-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GILLETTE AREA
Characteristic
Value
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
Temperature
Winter Daily Low (January)
Summer Daily High (July)
Air Stability
Soils
4,000-5,000 feet
14 inches
87°F
Stable 31% of the time
Sandy to sandy loam, variable
Biota
Vegetation
Croplands
Dominant Animals
Major Limiting Factors
Grasslands (plus coniferous and
deciduous woods)
92-percent rangeland, 4-percent
croplands (forage)
Cattle, rabbits, antelope
Droughts, grazing
Social and Economic^
Mineral Ownership (percent)
Federal
State
Local Government and Private
Land Ownership
Federal
State
Local Government and Private
Population (County)
Population Density
Unemployment
Income (per family)
Poverty Level (less than $3,000)
46.8 7o
7.1 7,
46.1 7o
12.6 7o
6.5 7o
80.8 7o
12,000
2,7 per square mile
2.6 7, (1970)
$18,500
4.8 7o
Government
County
City (Gillette)
Taxation
Public Department Expenditures
Board of County Commissioners
Mayor-Council
Primarily property tax
$1.4 million (1972 Campbell County)
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. County and
City Data Book; A Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1972, pp. 534-545.
a
'Campbell County, 1975 dollars.
448
-------
background levels for three pollutants have been estimated in
micrograms per cubic meter (pg/m3) as: sulfur dioxide (S02), 18;
particulates, 17; and nitrogen dioxide (NC>2) , 4.1
B. Meteorological Conditions
Worst-case dispersion conditions can be associated with
stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per
hour) , persistent wind direction, and relatively low mixing depths.2
Under these conditions, increases in pollutant concentrations
from both ground-level and elevated sources^ are likely. These
worst-case conditions differ at each site and are reflected in
the predicted annual average pollutant levels between sites.
Prolonged periods of air stagnation are uncommon in the Gillette
area. However, meteorological conditions unfavorable for pollu-
tion dispersion occur approximately 30 percent of the time.
Thus, plume impact ion4 and limited plume mixing due to temperature
inversions at plume height can be expected with some regularity.5
The pollution dispersion potential for the Gillette area
should vary considerably with the season and time of day.
Pollution problems are most likely during fall and winter mornings
when mixing depths and wind speeds are lowest. Dispersion
potential is generally greatest during the spring.
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Mea-
surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are
unknown, but high background HC levels have been measured at
other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Back-
ground CO levels are assumed to be relatively low.
2
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
3
Elevated sources are tall stacks that emit pollutants
several hundred feet above ground. Ground-level sources include
towns, strip mines, and tank farms that emit pollutants close to
ground level.
Plume impaction is the limited atmospheric mixing of stack
plumes caused by elevated terrain (terrain as high as the plumes)
and stable air conditions.
5See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities. Ash-
ville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975.
449
-------
9.2.2 Emission Sources
The primary emission sources in the Gillette scenario will
be a power plant, three conversion facilities (Lurgi, Synthane,
and Synthoil)i, supporting wells and surface mines, and those
associated with population increases. The largest of these
sources, the power plant, will have four 750-megawatt-electric
boilers, each with its own stack.1 The plant will be equipped
with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) which will remove 99
percent of particulates and a scrubber which will remove 80
percent of the S02 and 40 percent of the N02-2 The plant's two
75,000-barrel storage tanks, with standard floating roof con-
struction, will each emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.
Most mine-related pollution will originate from diesel
engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides, HC, and
particulates. Although water spray will be used to suppress
dust, some additional particulates will occur from blasting, coal
piles, and blowing dust.3 Pollution from energy-related popu-
lation increases will result largely from additional automobile
traffic. Concentrations have been estimated from available data
on average emissions per person in several western cities.
All the coal conversion facilities and the power plant will
be cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each of the
various cells in the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of
15,330 gallons per minute and emits 0.01 percent of its water as
a mist. The circulating water has a total dissolved solids content
of 10,000 parts per million. This results in a salt emission
rate of 21,200 pounds per year for each cell.
Table 9-3 lists emissions of five criteria pollutants for
all proposed facilities. The power plant is the greatest
Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.0
feet, mass flow rates of 2.56 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an
exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of
180°F.
2
These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable esti-
mates of current industrial practices. ,
3 :
The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency is investigating this question and will be used to
inform further impact analyses.
The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the
Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16.
450
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TABLE 9-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES
(pounds per hour)
Facilities
3,000-MWe Power
Plant
Mine
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
Synthoil
Mine
Plant
25-MMtpy Export
Coal Mine (rail)
25-MMtpy Coal Mine
(slurry)
Natural Gas
Gas Wells
Plant
Uranium
Mine
Mill
Particulates
12.6
1,196
7
453
6
208
10
316
13
13
0
0
0.1
0
S02
8.3
6,440
4.6
406
4
242
6.8
946
8.3
8.3
0
433
0.1
0
NOx
113
15,812
62
2,372
54
928
92
4,616
113
*
113
0
0
0.5
7
HC
69
440
39
316
33
124
56
1,350
69
69
1,000
0
0.3
0
CO
13.1
1,464
7.3
48
6.3
19
11
181
13
13
0
0
0.1
0
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
MMtpy = million tons per year
MWe = megawatts-electric
NOx = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
451
-------
contributor of pollutants in all cases except HC. Both the
synthoil plant and the natural gas wells exceed the power plant
in HC emissions.
9.2.3 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
The hypothetical strip mine for coal rail transport and
natural gas wells will become operational in 1980. The greatest
construction impact expected from these facilities will be
periodic increases in particulate levels due to wind-blown dust.
Since the highest particulate measurements do not exceed federal
or state standards, blowing dust should not cause particulate
problems as significant as those expected at Farmington or
Kaiparowits (Chapters 6 and 7).
Tables 9-4 and 9-5 summarize the concentrations of four
pollutants predicted to be produced by the strip mine and natural
gas wells respectively. These pollutants (SC>2, particulates,
N02, and HC) are regulated by federal and Wyoming state standards
(also shown in the tables) . Table 9-4 shows that the strip mine
will not violate any federal or state ambient standards. Table
9-5 shows that, while typical concentrations from the natural gas
wells do not violate ambient standards, peak concentrations may
exceed both the federal and state H<^ standards by a factor of
more than 6.
Tables 9-4 and 9-5 also list Non-Significant Deterioration
(NSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollu-
tants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e.,
areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air
standards).1 "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest
areas, such as national parks and forests.2 Peak concentrations
attributable to the strip mine for coal rail transport and from
the natural gas wells do not exceed allowable Class II increments.
However, both facilities do exceed Class I standards for 3-hour SC-2.
Non-Significant Deterioration standards apply only to
particulates and sulfur dioxide.
2
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all Non-Significant Deterioration areas Class II and established
a process requiring petitions and public hearings for redesig-
nating areas Class I or Class II. A Class II designation is for
areas which have moderate, well-controlled energy or industrial
development and permits less deterioration than that allowed by
federal secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deteriora-
tion to the level of secondary standards.
452
-------
TABLE 9-4:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM STRIP MINE FOR COAL RAIL TRANSPORT
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrations3
Background
17
18
4
Unknown
Typical
6.8
3.5
10
5.5
Peak
Plant
0.3
12
0.2
8
48
Gillette
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.1
Standards15
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365 ~
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
oo
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
S02 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical 25-million tons per year strip mine. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations
from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SO2 levels. Concentrations
over Gillette are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other tha'n the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-
Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively
clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
°It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NO,. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
*^The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 9-5:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrationsa
Background
17
18
4
Typical
0
3.2
14
56
Peak
Plant
0
0
0.6
14.0
55
0
1,087
Gillette
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Standards15
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ui
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 * nitrogen dioxide
SOa = sulfur dioxide
^hese are predicted ground-level concentrations from natural gas production. Annual average background levels are con-
sidered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations from the plant and mine
combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual S02 levels.. Concentrations over Gillette are
largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-
Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively
clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N02. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
TThe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
Since Class I increments are violated by the facilities,
they would have to be located a sufficient distance from such
areas to allow dilution of emissions by atmospheric mixing to
allowable concentrations prior to their reaching any Class I
areas. The distance required for this dilution, which varies by
facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological con-
ditions, in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I
areas. Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations
would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles between these
facilities and a Class I area boundary.•*•
2. Pollution from the Town
The town of Gillette is expected to increase its population
from 10,000 to 22,500 by 1980.2 This increase will contribute to
increases in pollution concentrations from urban sources. Table
9-6 shows predicted concentrations of five criteria pollutants
measured at the center of the town and at a point 3 miles from
the center of town.3 when concentrations from urban sources are
added to background levels, the HC levels will exceed ambient
standards.^
B. Impacts to 1990
1. Pollution from Facilities
By 1990, the power plant, coal slurry pipeline, Lurgi gasi-
fication plant, uranium mill, and all associated mines will become
operational. Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of
these facilities are summarized in Tables 9-7 through 9-9. Air
impacts from the strip mine supporting the coal slurry pipeline are
not shown because they are expected to be similar to those produced by
the strip mine for rail transport shown in Table 9-4. Impacts
Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be
symmetrical. This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated
by area "wind roses" which show wind direction patterns and
strengths for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direction of
Non-Significant Deterioration areas from energy facilities will
be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.
o
Refer to Section 9.4.3.
3
Pollution concentrations from population increases were
computed under the assumption that urban emissions are directly
proportional to population. Computational procedures are elab-
orated on in the Introduction to Part II.
4
Hydrocarbon standards are violated regularly in most urban
areas.
455
-------
TABLE 9-6: POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT GILLETTE
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Ul
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
N02C
Annual
HCd
3-hour
CO
8-hour
1-hour
Concentrations3
Background
17
18
4
unknown
unknown
Mid-Town Point
1980
22
75
12
41
72
35
660
2,200
3,600
1990
27
92
14
48
84
41
780
2,550
4,180
2000
30
102
16
54
96
45
871
2,970
4,870
Rural Point
1980
5
75
3
41
72
8
660
5,200
3.600
1990
7
92
4
48
84
12
780
2, 550
4,180
2000
10
102
5
54
96
17
871
2,970
4,870
Standards11
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
40,000
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
10,000
40,000
CO
HC
carbon monoxide
hydrocarbons
N02
SO2
nitrogen dioxide
sulfur dioxide
are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concentrations are taken
from Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the center of town.
"Primary and Secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the public health and
welfare, respectively.
clt is assumed that 50 percent of nitrogen oxide from urban sources is converted to NO2. Refer to the Intro-
duction to Part II.
TPhe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 9-7:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM POWER PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
SO2
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
N02C
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrations*
Background
17
18
4
Typical
1.2
3.9
25
2.0
Peak
Plant
0.4
8.7
1.6
47
323
4.6
43
Plant and Mine
0.4
19
1.6
51
323
4.6
78
Gillette
0.2
13
0.6
48
117
2.0
30
Standards1"
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5 .
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
LF1
HC « hydrocarbons
N02 •• nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant/mine combination. Annual average background-
levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations from the plant
and mine combination are attributable to the mine, v(ith the exception of annual SOj levels. Concentrations over Gillette are-
largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respec-
tively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to- areas of relatively clean air, such
as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NC>2. Refer to the Introduction to Part II. •
TThe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 9-8:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM STRIP MINE FOR COAL SLURRY LINE
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
N02C
Annual
HCa
3-hour
Concentrations*
Background
17
18
4
Typical
6.8
3.5
10
5.5
Peak
Plant
0.3
12
0.2
8
48
2.9
49
'Gillette
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
Standards1*
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ul
00
HC = hydrocarbons
NOj - nitrogen dioxide
SC>2 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical 25-million tons per year strip mine/coal slurry
line. Annual average background levels ard considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most
of the peak concentrations from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual
SOj levels. Concentrations over Gillette are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare,
respectively. All standards for averaging times other than>the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-
significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively
clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in -Chapter 14.
It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N02- Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 9-9:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM LURGI GASIFICATION PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24— hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
H02C
Annual
HCa
3-hour
Concentrations*
Background
17
18
4
Typical
0.8
1
1.7
0.2
Peak
Plant
0.3
3,5
0.3
5.4
34
2.1
3
Plant and Mine
0.3
12
0.3
9.2
34
2.1
38
Gillette
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.4
0.2
Standards*
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ui
HC = hydrocarbons
NOj = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 =• sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Lurgi gasification plant/mine combination. Annual
average background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concen-
trations from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SO2 levels. Concen-
trations over Gillette are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respec-
tively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N(>2. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
from uranium mining and milling are assumed slight and are therefore
not shown. Peak concentrations from the new facilities and
their mines are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming
ambient air standards, 1
No Class II increments are violated by these facilities.
However, several Class I increments are exceeded by both of the
new plants and the strip mine. Peak concentrations from the
strip mine, Lurgi gasification plant, and the power plant exceed
all short-term (24-hour or less) Class I increments when combined
with emissions from their associated mines. In addition, typical
3-hour SC-2 levels from the power plant equal the allowable Class
I increment.
These NSD violations will require buffer zones for each
plant. Current EPA regulations would require the largest buffer
zone, 44 miles, for the power plant. The buffer zone for the
Lurgi plant is 7.4 miles, and less than 5 miles for the strip
mine. Currently there are no designated Class I areas within
these buffer zones. Should the nearby Black Hills National
Forest be redesignated Class I, however, the increments for Class
I areas would be violated by the power plant.2
2. Pollution from the Town
Gillette's population increase to 39,950 by 1990 will cause
urban pollutant concentrations to increase to the levels shown
in Table 9-6. As in the 1980 case, the only federal or state
ambient standard violated is that for HC.
Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal
due to the hypothetical distances between them. If the wind
blows directly from one plant to another, plumes may interact.
However, concentrations which result are less than those produced
by either plant and mine combination when the wind blows from the
plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration). The predicted
annual peak interaction increases are 0.4-0.5 micrograms per
cubic meter (iag/m3) (particulates); 1.6-1.8 pg/m3 (sulfur
dioxide), and 4.6-5.2 jig/m.3 (nitrogen dioxide). The plants could
have been sited such that short-term concentrations were highest
for cases of plant interaction. Sensitivity analysis of this siting
consideration will be done during the remainder of the study.
2
The area is a "potential" Class I area because its current
air quality makes it a prime candidate for redesignation and
because recent congressional legislation, although not passed
into law, has singled out national parks, forests, and recrea-
tional areas for mandatory Class I status.
460
-------
C. Impacts to 2000
1. Pollution from Facilities
Two new facilities, a Synthane gasification plant and a
Synthoil liquefaction plant, will become operational between
1990 and 2000. Tables 9-10 and 9-11 list typical concentrations
from the plants, peak concentrations from the plants, and peak
concentrations from the plant and mine combinations. These data
show that the only violation will be the 3-hour peak HC concen-
trations emitted by the Synthoil plant, which will greatly
exceed those allowed.1
Neither of the plants violates any Class II NSD increments,
but both plant and mine combinations violate Class I increments
for 24-hour and 3-hour S02- The Synthane plant also violates
the Class I increment for 24-hour particulates when the pollu-
tants from its associated mine are added under peak conditions.
These pollutant concentrations would require buffer zones of 13
miles for the Synthoil plant and less than 5 miles for the
Synthane plant.
2. Pollution from the Town
Gillette's population will increase to 65,100 by the year
2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated
with this growth (Table 9-6). Still, only the HC ambient stan-
dard will be exceeded by this source; no other standard will
even be closely approached.
9.2.4 Other Air Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention? that is, an attempt has been
made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development
may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years.
These categories of potential impacts are sulfates, oxidants,
Interactions between the Synthane and Synthoil plants will
cause some increases in annual peak concentrations, but these
concentrations are rather small (1.1 micrograms for sulfur
dioxide, 5.5 for nitrogen dioxide, and 0.7 for particulates).
These levels do not violate federal or Wyoming standards.
461
-------
TABLE 9-10:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHANE GASIFICATION PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Averaging Time
Participate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Annual
HCd
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background '
17
18
4
Typical
0.3
1
1.4
0.1
Peak
Plant
0.1
1.5
0.3
5.2
23
0.4
1.5
Plant and Mine
0.2
13
0.3
8.4
34
1.3
35
Gillette
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
1.2
0.5
0.1
Standards'3
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
1O
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
en
to
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
SOj = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthane gas plant/mine combination. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations
from the plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual 803 levels. Concentrations
over Gillette are largely attributable to the. plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respec-
tively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year . Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such
as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
°It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N02. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
3 -hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 9-11:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHOIL LIQUEFACTION PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Participate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
NO2°
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrations*
Background
IS
17
4
unknown
Typical
1.3
5.9
23
503
Peak
Plant
0.7
6
3.6
31
109
4.4
25,100
Plant and Mine
0.7
6
3.6
31
109
6
25,100
Gillette
0.1
0.5
0.4
1.7
5.9
2
5.9
Standards*
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Wyoming
60
150
60
260
100
160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class IT
10
30
15
100
700
u>
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthane gas plant/mine combination. Annual average back-
ground levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Moat of the peak concentrations from the
plant and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SOj levels. Concentrations over Gillette
are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant Deterioration
standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as national forests.
These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NOj. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling
tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.-1
A. Sulfates
Very little is known about sulfate concentrations likely to
result from western energy development. However, one study sug-
gests that for oil shale retorting and coal gasification, peak
conversion rates of S02 to sulfates in plumes are less than 1
percent.2 Applying this ratio to plants in the Gillette scenario
results in peak sulfate concentrations of less than 1 pg/mj
This level is well below EPA's suggested danger point of 12
for a 24-hour average.3
B. Oxidants
Oxidants (which include such compounds as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) can be
emitted from specific sources or formed in the atmosphere. For
example, oxidants can be formed when HC combines with NOx- Too
little is known about the actual conversion processes which form
oxidants to be able to predict concentrations from power or
liquefaction plants. However, the relatively low peak concen-
trations of HC from the power plant and its associated mine
(78 yg/m3) SUggest that an oxidant problem is unlikely to result
from these sources alone. An oxidant problem would more likely
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitro-
genous Compounds in the Environment, U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1973.
2
Nordsieck, R., et aj.. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research
and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975. This study
assumed that sulfur dioxide (S02) in the plumes was converted to
sulfate at the rate of 1 percent per hour independent of humidity,
clouds, or photochemically related reaction intensity. Reported
results indicate peak sulfate levels ranging from 0.1 to 1.6
percent of the corresponding peak SC>2 levels from oil shale
retorting. Recent work in Scandinavia suggests that acid-forming
sulfates arriving in Norway are complex ammonium sulfates formed
by a catalytic and/or photochemical process which varies with the
season.
3Ibid.
464
-------
result from the combination of background HC and NO2 emitted from
the power plant plume. Since background HC levels are unknown,
the extent of this problem has not been predicted.
In only one of several cases investigated did oxidants
formed from coal gasification plant emissions exceed federal
standards.1 (These cases are not comparable to the Lurgi and
Synthane facilities hypothesized in this scenario; thus levels of
oxidants formed from the combination of HC and NC>2 were not
predicted.) Further, concentrations of HC in this scenario are
much smaller than those found in the one case in which standards
were violated. Although the NC>2 levels in that case are about
equal to those expected from the gasification facilities in this
scenario, violations of oxidant concentrations are not expected.
However, this is not the case for the Synthoil plant, which
produces peak HC concentrations more than 150 times greater than
the federal and state standards. Since NC>2 is emitted in the
plume, violations of oxidant standards may result.
HC concentrations over Gillette, which will reach a level
five times the standard by the year 2000, are also likely to
create oxidant problems. Since oxidant formation may occur rela-
tively slowly (i.e. one or more hours) this problem will be less when
wind conditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates (less than 3 microns in diameter) are
primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the plants.2 Current
information suggests that particulate emissions controlled by ESP
have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns, and uncontrolled
particulates have a mean diameter of about 10 microns.3 in
general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the smaller the
mean diameter of the particles emitted by the plant. The high-
efficiency ESP's (99-percent removal) in this scenario are
Nordsieck, R., et al. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research
and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975.
2
Fine particulates produced by atmospheric chemical reactions
take long enough to form so they occur long distances from the
plants.
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et. al. A Program to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California
Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974.
465
-------
estimated to remove enough course particulates that fine
particulates account for about 50 percent of the total partic-
ulate concentrations. This percentage applies to the power plant
and Lurgi and Synthane gasification processes. However, since
only half of the particulate emissions from the Synthoil plant
are controlled, about 25 percent of its emissions will be fine
particulates. Health effects from fine particulates are discussed
in Section 12.6.
D. Long-Range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-0.1 microns in
diameter) is that they reduce long-range visibility. Particulates
suspended in the atmosphere scatter light, which ultimately
reduces the contrast between an object and its background below
the level required by the human eye to distinguish the object
from the background. Estimates of visual ranges for this scenario
are based on empirical relationships between visual distance and
fine particulate concentrations. •*•
Visibility in the region of this scenario generally averages
about 70 miles. The greatest reduction in average visibility,
due to an increase in suspended particulates, will occur when
looking south-southeast roughly on a line from the Lurgi to the
Synthoil plant. As the facilities in this scenario become
operational, average visibility will decrease to 67 miles by the
year 2000. Air stagnation episodes will cause substantially
greater reductions.
E. Plume Opacity
Fine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although ESP will remove enough
particulates for the power plant to meet emission standards.
Charlson, R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the
Generality of Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concen-
tration and Light Scatter." Atmospheric Environment. Vol. 2
(September 1968), pp. 455-64. Since the model is designed for
urban areas, its use in rural areas yields results that are only
approximate.
466
-------
stack plumes would probably exceed the 20-percent opacity
standard.1 Thus, plumes will be visible at the stack exit and
for some distance downwind. Although no opacity standards exist
for gasification or liquefaction plants, the Lurgi, Synthane,
and Synthoil plants all have more than one stack which would
produce plumes with greater than 20-percent opacity.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
Estimated salt deposition rates from cooling tower drift for
the four facilities in this scenario are shown in Table 9-12.
These rates are relatively low and decrease rapidly beyond 1.3
miles. Some interaction of salt deposition from the various
plants will occur. For example, the area midway between the
power plant and the Synthane plant will receive an average of
about 3.7 pounds per acre per year. The effect of salt on a
specific area depends on soil conditions/ rainfall, and existing
vegetation.
TABLE 9-12: SALT DEPOSITION RATES
«'
Plant
Lurgi gasification
Power plant
Synthane gasification
Synthoil liquefaction
Averaging Salt Deposition Rate
(pounds per acre per year)
0-1.3
milesa
12
70
6.6
17
1.3-10.0
milesa
0.7
3.4
0.3
0.8
10.0-33.1
milesa
0.03
0.2
0.02
0.05
Diameter of circles bounding the area subject to the
salt deposition rate.
The Federal New Source Performance Standard for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of
particulates per million British thermal units heat input. The
plume opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly
met as the particulate emissions standard because it would
require removal of 99.9 percent of all plume particulates, which
would increase electrostatic precipitator costs.
467
-------
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
Fogging potential in the Gillette area is generally low.
Relative humidities of 100 percent occur less than twice per
year, and humidities between 95 and 99 percent occur less than
four times per year. In addition, heavy fog (visibility reduc-
tions to .25 mile or less) occurs on the average only about 8
days annually. Hence, cooling towers should produce only slight
increases in fogs. However, the Gillette area has approximately
100 days of subfreezing temperatures each year, and thus cooling
tower drift may add significantly to icing problems in the
immediate plant vicinities when conditions are right. This could
cause hazardous driving conditions on nearby Interstate 90 and
U.S. Highway 14.
H. Trace Element Emissions
Trace element emissions from the Gillette facilities depend
on coal composition and the concentration of elements in ash,
liquid wastes, and stack plumes. Although some portion of all
trace elements in Gillette coal (shown in Table 9-13) are
expected to enter the atmosphere, the exact percentage cannot be
predicted. Some trace element emissions can be predicted for
power plants, but information is not available for determining
concentrations from liquefaction or gasification facilities.
Compared with the lignites of the Northern Great Plains
region, Gillette coal contains low amounts of arsenic, mercury,
and uranium but two to three times more lead and zinc. Compared
with Southwestern coal, Gillette coal contains nearly twice the
concentrations of arsenic and lead.
9.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
A. Air Quality
Of the new facilities projected in the Gillette scenario,
only the Synthoil liquefaction plant and the natural gas wells
violate federal or Wyoming ambient standards. However, the
3-hour HC standard is greatly exceeded, with levels from the
Synthoil plant exceeding the standard by a factor of more than
150.
Each of the facilities will violate several NSD Class I
increments. Peak concentrations from the Synthoil plant will
exceed Class I increments for 24-hour particulates and all three
S02 increments. Peak concentrations from the coal rail transport
and the coal slurry line strip mines, as well as those from the
gasification plants, will violate Class I increments for 24-hour
particulates, 24-hour S02» and 3-hour,' SC-2. The power plant and
natural gas well peak concentrations will violate 24-hour and
3-hour S02 increments. Because of these violations, the power
468
-------
TABLE 9-13:
SELECTED TRACE ELEMENT COMPOSITION
OF GILLETTE
Element
Arsenic
Beryllium
Cadmium
Copper
Fluorine
Mercury
Lithium
Lead
Antimone (Sb)
Selenium
Thorium
Uranium
Zinc
Range of Compos it iona
(parts per million)
Low
1
0.15
0.10
3.30
30
0.06
0.50
1.50
0.10
0.30
1.50
0.20
2.10
Average
1.850
0.240
0.130
13.600
56.250
0.109
4.440
6.550
0.260
0.950
2.380
0.920
7.150
High
4
0.70
0.20
51
200
0.28
49
40
0.70
2.20
7.70
3.20
25
To Conversion
Facilities13
(pounds per day)
418
56
30
3,163
13,000
25.3
1,032
1,523
59.3
221
552
212
1,662
Based on data from Wyodak-Anderson coal bed of the Belle
Ayr (Amax) mine and the Wyodak mine at Gillette. Ranges
and averages based on 20 samples.
•L^
Obtained by multiplying the average concentration by the
total quantity mined for conversion facilities: 116,300
tons per day (232,600,000 pounds per day).
plant will require a buffer zone of 44 miles, the Synthoil plant
will need a 13-mile buffer zone, and the Lurgi plant will need a
7.4-mile buffer zone. The Synthane plant, strip mines, and
natural gas wells will require buffer zones of under 5 miles.
Population increases in Gillette will add to existing
pollution problems. Current violations of HC standards will
continue to increase through the year 2000, but no other vio-
lations of ambient standards due to urban sources are expected
in Gillette.
Several other categories of air impacts have received only
preliminary attention. Our information to date suggests that
oxidant and fine particulate problems are likely to emerge,
largely owing to emissions from the Synthoil plant. Plumes from
the stacks at all the plants will be visible and, in some cases,
may exceed the 20-percent opacity standard. Mercury and beryllium
emissions from the power plant will also exceed the existing
standards for some industrial plants, although no standards
469
-------
currently exist for coal-fired power plants. Long-range visibility
will be reduced from the current average of 70 miles to about 67
miles some time after the year 2000.
B. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plant will vary if
emission control systems with other efficiencies are used.1 For
example, Table 9-14 gives the S02, particulate, and NO2 concen-
trations which would result if the plant used only enough control
to meet most New Source Performance Standards? that is, if the plant
removed 97.5 percent of the particulates and none of the SO2,
rather than the 99-percent and 80-percent removals hypothesized
in this scenario. These data show that resulting concentrations
would violate only the federal standards for 3-hour S02.
TABLE 9-14:
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL
EMISSION CONTROLS21
Pollutant
Averaging Time
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Particulate
Annual
2 4 -hour
NOx
Annual
Concentration
8
235
1,615
1
22
8
Federalb
Standard
80
365
(1,300)
75
260
100
Wyoming
Standard
60
260
60
150
100
NOx = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
These are maximum concentrations which assume 97.5
percent particulate removal and no S02 removal, which
would meet New Source Performance Standards.
Primary standards protect public health and secondary
standards protect public welfare. Secondary standards
are in parenthesis.
New Source Performance Standards do not exist for gasifi-
cation and liquefaction plants. TheLurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil
plants meet all Class II increments in this scenario.
470
-------
TABLE 9-15:
REQUIRED EMISSION REMOVAL FOR
MEETING CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
Emission
Removal (%)
0
58
57
75
96.6
S02 = sulfur dioxide
Other alternatives are for the plants to increase the
efficiency of emission controls or to reduce total plant capacity
to meet all NSD Class II increments. Since all plants in the
Gillette scenario meet allowable Class II increments with the
hypothesized controls, no reduction in capacity or improvement in
control efficiency is required (Table 9-15).
C. Data Availability
Availability and quality of data have limited the impact
analyses reported in this chapter. These factors have primarily
affected estimation of long-range visibility, plume opacity,
oxidant formation, sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of
trace materials. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation. This includes the effect
of pollutants on visibility.
2. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals. This would improve
estimates of fallout and rainout from plumes.
9.3 WATER IMPACTS
9.3.1 Introduction
As shown in Figure 9-3, the Gillette, Wyoming scenario is
located in a water-poor area of the relatively water-rich Upper
Missouri River Basin. Surface water sources that could supply
the needs of energy development at Gillette are all a considerable
distance away; these include the Yellowstone River, its tributaries.
471
-------
SUBBASINS
1 Western Dakota Tributaries 6
2 Platte-Niobrara Rivers 7
3 Powder River
4 Bighorn River 8
5 Green River 9
Yellowstone
Upper Missouri River
Tributaries
Snake River
Bear River
FIGURE 9-3:
SURFACE WATER SOURCES IN THE VICINITY
OF GILLETTE
472
-------
and the Belle Fourche, Green, and North Platte Rivers. In this
area, annual rainfall is about 14 inches, and annual snowfall is
about 48 inches.
This section identifies the sources and uses of water
required for energy development, the residuals that will be
produced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are
likely to result.
9.3.2 Existing Conditions
A. Groundwater
The most productive aquifer systems in the Gillette area are
the deeply buried Madison Limestone aquifer (mostly over 5,000
feet deep), shallow aquifer systems in the Fort Union and Wasatch
Formations (mostly less than 300 feet deep), and alluvial aquifer
systems associated with the surface drainage. Although no
estimate is available on the quantity of water stored in these
aquifers (information is especially inadequate for the Madison),
the total volume of groundwater available in the northeast
Wyoming region without exceeding recharge rates is estimated at
150,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr).1
The quality of water in the Madison aquifer, as measured by
total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations, ranges from less
than 500 milligrams per liter (mg/£) near recharge areas in the
Powder River Basin to more than 4,000ing/Jl near the Montana-
North Dakota line.2
Water from the Madison has municipal, industrial, domestic,
and livestock uses in the Wyoming region. Because the Madison is
a limestone aquifer with irregular caverns storing the water, the
productivity of a particular well depends on the number or size
of caverns encountered by the well borehole. Wells producing
several hundred gallons per minute (gpni) are common.
Several alluvial aquifers are present along the streams in
the scenario area. The aquifer along Donkey Creek, about 5 miles
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974.
2
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
•;• Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
' Wyoming. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1974, p. 3.
473
-------
east of Gillette, is the most productive, having wells that yield
from only a few to as much as several hundred gpm1 at a depth of
from 3 to 20 feet.2 Water quality of these alluvial aquifers is
generally only fair,3 and the water is presently used only for
livestock and domestic purposes.
The most important aquifers in the Gillette area are in the
shallow bedrock Fort Union and Wasatch .Formations, These aqui-
fers are in coal beds and lens-like sandstone bodies interbedded
with shales. Wells yield up to 100 gpm in the Fort Union Forma-
tion and up to 500 gpm in the Wasatch Formation.4 Water taken from
these formations is used for livestock and domestic purposes as
well as more than 95 percent of Gillette's municipal water
supply.5 Water quality is variable, with a generally lower
concentration of TDS than the alluvial aquifers.6
B. Surface Water
As shown in Figure 9-3, Gillette, Wyoming is located
approximately on the divides of several major watersheds: the Belle
Wyoming, State Engineer's Office. A Report from the
Wyoming Water Planning Program. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming, State
Engineer's Office, 1972, p.61.
1 T
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974, p. 1-95.
Total dissolved solids range from about 500 to more than
2,000 milligrams per liter (mg/£) , but most water ranges from
1,000 to l,500mg/£. See BLM. FEIS; Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin, p. 1-199.
Ttfyoming, State Engineer's Office. Wyoming Water Planning
Program, pp. 67, 70.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group,
Ground Water Subgroup. Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas
in the Fort Union Coal Region,Open File Report 74-48.Helena,
Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey,
1974, p. 35.
c
The total dissolved solids content ranges from 300 to more
than 2,OQO milligrams per liter, but the range of most bedrock
aquifer water in the Powder River Basin is limited to 500-1,500
dissolved solids. BLM. FEIS; Eastern Powder River Coal Basin
p. 1-130.
474
-------
Fourche, Little Powder, Cheyenne, and Powder River Basins.
Therefore, as energy development takes place around Gillette,
water needs could be met from several of these sources.
the
The water supply situation is complicated by the Yellowstone
Compact! and the Belle Fourche Compact.2 The Yellowstone Compact
was negotiated between Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota to
control water allocations in the Yellowstone River Basin. The
compact recognizes all water rights existing in the basin as of
January 1, 1950 and provides for the division of all remaining
(unallocated) flow. Flow in the tributaries to the Yellowstone
is divided as shown in Table 9-16.
However, an important provision within the compact states
that ho water will be diverted out of the basin without the
consent of the signatory states. As Gillette is outside the
Yellowstone Basin, this provision will directly affect the
availability of water to energy development.
Water appropriations in the Belle Fourche River are governed
by a compact between Wyoming and South Dakota. This compact
states that all waters unappropriated as of February 1944 are
allocated 10 percent to Wyoming and 90 percent to South Dakota.
There are several intermittent streams in the Scenario area.
Although there are no data on these streams, it is doubtful that they
have enough flow to supply water for energy development. Gillette is
located on Donkey Creek, an ephemeral tributary of the Belle
Fourche River, but the drainage area of the creek above Gillette
is only 0.28 square mile.
TABLE 9-16:
LEGAL DIVISION OF FLOW,
YELLOWSTONE RIVER
TRIBUTARIES
Tributary
Clarks Fork
Bighorn
Tongue
Powder
Wyoming
60%
80%
40%
42%
Montana
40%
20%
60%
58%
Yellowstone River Compact of 1950, 65 Stat. 663 (1951).
2
Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944)
475
-------
The availability of water to meet energy development demands
is shown on Table 9-17. Surface water would be available from
several distant sources, including the Yellowstone River and its
tributaries, Belle Fourche River, Cheyenne River, Little Missouri
River, Green River, North Platte River, and Lake Oahe on the
Upper Missouri in South Dakota. This is discussed further in the
next section.
9.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
for the Gillette scenario are shown in Table 9-18. Two sets of
data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System data
are based on secondary sources, including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published
data accumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement
levels. The Water Purification Associates data are from a study
on minimum water use requirements and take into account the
moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological
data.2
Figure 9-4 shows the water consumed for different purposes
by the hypothesized energy facilities. As indicated, more water
is used for cooling than for processing and solids disposal com-
bined. Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water
for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash
content of the feedstock coal.
The Energy Resource Development System, which is forthcoming
as a separate publication, is based on data drawn from: Univer-
sity of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy
Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1975. Radian Corporation. A Western
Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin,
Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
2
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
476
-------
TABLE 9-17:
WATER USE AND AVAILABILITY FOR TRANSPORT
FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AT GILLETTE3
(in acre-feet per year)
Estimated Depletions of Stream Flow
Stream
Tongue River
Powder River
Little Missouri
River
Belle Fourche
River
Cheyenne River
Bighorn River
Total
Plow Leaving
Northeastern
Wyoming
302,700
322,600
31,400
76,400
64,800
797,900
Irrigation
77,100
66,100
1,800
1,500
4,500
151,000
Municipal
Domestic
& Stock
2,400
2,100
100
1,000
600
6,200
Industrial
1,000
700
1,000
1,700
4,400
Reservoir
Evaporation
3,100
27,600
2,100
16,800
14,100
63,700
Total
83,600
96,500
4,000
20,300
20,900
225,300
Water Yield
from North-
eastern Wyoming
386,300
419,100
35,400
96,700
85,700
1,023,200
Wyoming ' s^5
Legal
Share
96,000
121,000
7,000
15,000C
1.800,000
2,039,000
-J
-J
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development, of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder R'iver Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974.
Wyoming, State Engineer's Office, Water Planning Program. The Wyoming Framework Water Plan. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming,
State Engineer's Office, 1973.
legal restriction.
-------
TABLE 9-18: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Use
Power
Generation
Gasification
(Lurgi)
Coal Slurry
Gasification
(Synthane)
Liquefaction
(Synthoil)
Gas Wells
Uranium
Production
Size
3,000 MWe
250 MMscfd
25 MMtpy
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
250 MMscfd
1,100 mtpd of ore
Requirement3
Acre-ft/yr
*i_
ERDS
42,000
7,460
18,390
10,100
19,400
3,800
1,350
WPAC
36,330
4,420
18,490
8,380
9,780
bbl/day = barrels per day
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
mtpd = metric tons per day
MWe = megawatt(s)-electric
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of
100-percent. Although not realistic for sustained op-
eration, this load factor will generate the maximum
water demand for these facilities.
Chapter 3 of White, Irvin L. et al. Energy Resource
Development Systems for a Technology Assessment of
Western Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
CFrom Water Purification Associates. Water Require-
ments for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic
Fuel Plants in the Western United States, Final Report, for
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming. The load factors assumed in the report are
different for different technologies. Data were changed to
correspond to 100-percent load factor in this table.
478
-------
45 r-
40
35
30
R-42,000
>%
^ 25
H-
I
O
< 20
o
o
o
15
10
W-36,327
R-19,400
Cooling Tower
Evaporation
Consumed in
the Process
Solids Disposal
Consumption
R-7,457
Power Synthoil Synthane Lurgi
Generation
FIGURE 9-4:
WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE GILLETTE SCENARIO
479
-------
TABLE 9-19: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION3
Mine
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil
Rail
Transport
Slurry
Pipeline
Total
Acres
Disturbed/Year
110
85
85
110
220
220
830
Maximum
Acres Under
Irrigation
550
425
425
550
1,110
1,110
4,150
Water
Requirements
(Acre-ft/yr)
415
320
415
415
825
825
3,215
Based on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for 5
years, which is the difference between water demand of
native grasses and average precipitation. See U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Resource and Reclamation Evaluation; Otter Creek Study
Site, EMRIA Report No. 1. Billings, Mont.: Bureau of
Land Management, 1975,
In addition to the energy facility water requirements, the
associated mines that provide feedstock coal will also require
water. If reclamation of surface-mined lands includes irriga-
tion, most of the water requirements for mining will be for
reclamation (see Table 9-19).
Assuming the legal restraints of the various compacts
mentioned earlier can be favorably resolved, several pipeline
or aquaduct schemes for supplying Gillette with water have been
evaluated by industry and government agencies. Figure 9-5 shows
some of these schemes. Table 9-20 presents representative flow
data at possible diversion points from these rivers and some
water quality parameters of interest.
The cost of transporting water to the energy development
will depend on several factors, including the route selected and
the volume of flow. Cost figures for some of those diversions
are shown on Table 9-21.
The cost required to bring large quantities of water into
Gillette may be such that only a federal organization, such as
the Bureau of Reclamation, would be able to finance the construc-
tion. However, a consortium of private companies might fund a
water system for all the developments and thus be able to take
480
-------
HARDIN
TO
GILLETTE
MILES CITY
TO
GILLETTE
OAHE RESERVOIR
TO
GILLETTE
NORTH PLATTE
Utah
PIPELINE
FIGURE 9-5:
ALTERNATE WATER SUPPLY ROUTES FOR
GILLETTE DEVELOPMENT
481
-------
TABLE 9-20:
STORAGE, FLOW, AND QUALITY DATA FOR POSSIBLE WATER
DIVERSION POINTS TO SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT AT GILLETTE
03
to
River
Green River
North Platte
Bighorn
Yellowstone
Nowood
Reservoir
Boysen
Bighorn
River
Green River
North Platte
Bighorn
Yellowstone
Nowood
Location
Green River, WY
Near Glenrock, WY
Hardin, MT
Miles City, MT
Tensleep, WY
River Basin
Bighorn
Bighorn
Location
Green River, WY
Near Glenrock, WY
Hardin, MT
Miles City, MT
Tensleep, WY
Drainage
Area
(Sg. Mi.)
= 9,700a
12,365a
1,101
10,600
803
Inactive and
Dead Storage
(acre-feet)
252,100
502,300
D.O.
7.5-22
Minimum
Flow
(cfs)
170
176
0.2
996
0.7
Active
Storage
(acre-feet)
549,900
613,700
TDS
181-762b
181-1, O02'b
370-1,160
150-624
507-889C
Maximum
Flow
(cfs)
16,500
16,000
4,520
96,300
3,330
Flood
Storage
(acre-feet)
150,400
259,000
pH
7.4-8.7«=
7.5-9.3
6.9-8.5
8.0-8.3
Average Flow
(acre-ft/yr)
1,249,000
205,970
8,166,510
76,800
Total
Storage
(acre-feet)
952,400
1,375,000
Total
Hardness
160-260°
100-540
86-204
180-600C
= = approximate
cfs = cubic feet per second
D.O. = dissolved oxygen
Contributing at diversion point.
Calculated from specific conductance.
pH = acidity
Sq. Mi. = square mile
TDS = total dissolved solids
-1973-1974.
-------
TABLE 9-21: ALTERNATIVE WATER SUPPLY COSTS FOR GILLETTE3
Service Area
Gillette, Wyoming
vicinity and south
Water Sources
Bighorn River
Bighorn River
Yellowstone
River
Missouri River
Green River
Diversion
Point
Bighorn Lake
Hard in, Montana
Miles City,
Montana
Oahe Reservoir,
South Dakota
Rock Springs,
Wyoming
Cost Per
Acre-Foot
(Dollars)
270
250
220
294
235
Source: Gibbs.PhilQ. "Availability of Water for Coal Conversion,"
Preprint No. 2561. Paper presented at the American Society of
Civil Engineers National Convention, Denver, Colorado, November
1975.
Assumptions , - 87=, interest
8 mills/kilowatt hour for pumping
40 year repayment of capital costs
flow 300,000-600,000 acre-feet per year
advantage of economies of scale. In effect, this could mean that
the timing of facility completions and subsequent start-ups would
be at more defined intervals. Several facilities might come on-
line at the same time to match the completion of an increment of
the water supply system. Although the costs shown in Table 9-21
are for a 300,000-600,000 acre-ft/yr delivery rate, this volume
may not be provided in one step. Alternatively, individual
industries may provide their own water supply systems. The cost
of individual systems would be higher but might still be within
the economic limits of project feasibility.
In the immediate vicinity of Gillette, the Madison aquifer
is too deep (10,000-14,000 feet)l for economical use, but about
50 miles to the east the aquifer is only about 1,500 feet from
the surface and thus could be economically tapped and pumped by
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming. Denver, Colo.:
1974.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
483
-------
pipeline to the scenario area. Such a system could be used to
supply some of the water needs for energy development.
The water supply system postulated for this scenario assumes
that, rather than a single water-supply pipeline, the industries
will use major surface and groundwater sources, and water will be
pumped to the industrial site. The Lurgi and Synthane gasifi-
cation plants and the power plant will draw water from the
Yellowstone River at Miles City. The Synthoil liquefaction plant
and coal slurry facility will take water from the North Platte
River near Douglas. Water for the rail transport facility will
be taken from local, shallow aquifers in the Fort Union Formation.
This water will be obtained from mine dewatering operations.
Water for the ^uranium mill and the gas liquefaction plant will be
withdrawn from the Madison limestone aquifer in the vicinity of
Sundance.
B. Municipal Supply
Most of the municipal water supply will probably be taken
from groundwater supplies. Although the water supply for Gillette is
presently derived from a local well field, water probably will be
pumped in the future from the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of
Sundance. Additional water for Casper will be obtained by
increased development of existing sources. Requirements for
increased population growth are shown in Table 9-22.
TABLE 9-22:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED
POPULATION GROWTH3
(acre-ft/yr)
Year
1980
1990
2000
Ruralb
Campbell
County
30
70
110
Gillette0
2,690
5,110
8,450
Casper^
470
1,410
2,000
Total
3,190
6,590
10,580
Above 1975 level.
Based on 80 gallons per capita per day.
Based on 240 gallons per capita per day.
on 200 gallons per capita per day. U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.
Estimated Use of Water in the United States in
1970, Circular 676. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1972.
.484
-------
9.3.4 Water Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The quantities and types of waste streams from the energy
facilities hypothesized for the Gillette scenario are shown in
Table 9-23. The largest quantity of effluents are from flue gas
desulfurization and ash disposal. The ash content of Gillette
coal is 8 percent and is disposed of»as fly ash or bottom ash,
depending on the conversion process. The quantity of flue gas
desulfurization effluent depends on the sulfur content of the
coal (0.6 percent by weight on a dry basis) and the scrubber
efficiency (80-percent removal assumed) . Other residual quantities
are insignificant.
All discharge streams from the facilities will be funneled
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. There are no
intentional releases to surface or groundwater systems. Runoff
prevention systems will be installed in all areas that have a
pollutant potential. Runoff will be directed to either a holding
pond or a water treatment facility.
The uranium mine will have both gaseous and particulate
emissions of radioactive materials, but the concentrations at the
plant boundaries will not be significant. Runoff from the mine
area will be controlled to restrict the flow of radioactive
solids. After settling, mine water will have about the same
quality as local springs.1 Typical mine water qualities are
shown in Table 9-24.
The uranium milling plant will also have liquid wastes.
Sanitary sewage will be treated and the effluent will be used as
process water; sludges will be placed in a landfill. Tailings
from the uranium mill will be ponded as a slurry in a manner
similar to that described above for the other facilities.
B. Municipalities
Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields), and
the urban population will require waste treatment facilities.
The current status of wastewater treatment facilities in the
municipalities most affected by energy development activities is
U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing,
Fuels and Materials. Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel
Cycle. WASH-1248. Washington, D.C.: Atomic Energy Commission,
1972.
485
-------
TABLE 9-23: EFFLUENTS FROM TECHNOLOGIES USED AT GILLETTE3
Process
Condensate
Treatment
Sludge
Boiler
Demineral-
izer
Waste
Treatment
waste
Treatment
Waste
Flue Gas
Djisulfuri-
zation
Bottom Ash
Disposal
Ely Ash
Disposal
Stream
Content53
o
s
s
i
i
i
Total
Power Generator
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
2.3
—
260
1,961
603
2,324
5,150.3
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
„
1.1
—
104
784
466
1,861
3,216.1
Water in
Solids
(gpnO
0.1
—
26
196
23
77
322.1
Lurgi
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
111
29
22
16
181
1,610
211
2,180
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
22
14
11
8
72
1,,:>37
171
1,535
Water in
Solids
(gpm)
14
2
1.8
1.3
18
62
7
106.1
Synthane
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
117
26
31
27
189
368
1,407
2,165
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
23
12
16
13
76
281
1,127
1,548
Water in
Solids
(gpm)
16
2
2.6
2
19
14
47
102.6
Synthoil
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
63
9
JL7
51
3,609
—
3,754
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
13
4
9
26
2,776
—
2,828
Water in
Solids
(gpm)
4
0.7
1.4
4.3
139
—
154.4
oo
gpm =• gallons per minute
tpd = tons per day
^rom Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.t U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming. Figures were adjusted to correspond to a load factor of 100 percent. See Appendix B.
s-soluble inorganic
i-insoiuble inorganic
o-insoluble organic
-------
TABLE 9-24: URANIUM MINE WATER COMPOSITIONa'b
UNDERGROUND MINES
Applicant
Mine Designation
Mine Location
Flow rate, thousands gpd
PH
Alkalinity (as CaCo3)
BOD, 5-day
COD
Total Solids
TDS
Total .Suspended Solids
Total Volatile Solids
Ammonia (as N)
Kjeldahl Nitrogen
Nitrate (as N)
Phosphorus Total as P
Alpha -Totalc
Beta Total0
Gamma Totalc
Cotter Corp.
Schwartz-
walder
Golden,
Colorado
72
7.9
244
1
10
1,220
1,042
178
244
0.15
0.55
12.0
0.4
3.3
1.05
3.3
Union Carbide
Eula Belle
Uravan,
Colorado
69
8.6
358
12
<2
730
590
140
70,7
<0.10
145
0.35
0.2
Union Carbide
Martha Belle
Uravan,
Colorado
47
8.4
384
8
< 2
3,103
650
2,453
192
< 0.10
0.3,
0.39
0.4
Union Carbide
Burro
SlicV; Rock,
Colorado
25
8.8
704
10.8
11
1,790
1,780
6
125
3.3
21.8
1.9
0.15
OPEN PIT MINES
Applicant
Mine Designation
Mine Location
Flow rate, thousands gpd
pH
Alkalinity (as CaCos)
BOD, 5-day
COD
Total Solids
TDS
Total Suspended Solids
Total Volatile Solids
Ammonia (as N)
Kjeldahl Nitrogen
Nitrate (as N)
Phosphorus Total as P
Alpha-Total0
Beta Total0
Gamma Total0
0308
Kerr-McGee
Shirley
Basin,
Wyoming
460
7.9
180
0
2.4
612
411
163
38
0.22
0.22
<0.01
0.05
360
168
no data
—
Getty Oil
KGS-JY-Mine
Shirley
Basin,
Wyoming
1,440
7.5
164
67
0
840
627
49
164
1.33
1.33
0.002
0.07
104
77
no data
—
Utah Intl.
Shirley Basin
Shirley
Basin,
Wyoming
2.880
6.7-8.2
144-150
0-2
0.8
850-1,275
750-825
40-420
40-92
1.42-1.60
1.42
0-1.06
2.30
-
—
-
140-1,100
BOD = biochemical oxygen demand
CaCos = calcium carbonate
COD => chemical oxygen demand
gpd = gallons per day
pH = acidity
TDS = total dissolved solids
yellowcake
is less than
Composition data given in milligrams per liter unless otherwise specified.
As reported in Corps of Engineers Discharge Permit Applications.
°In 1015 curies per milliliter.
487
-------
TABLE 9-25:
WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF
COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT AT GILLETTEa
Gillette
Casper
Type of
Treatment
Design Load
Current Load
Future Plans
Extended Aeration
1.2 MMgpd
(1.6 with modification)
1.3 MMgpd
Powder River Areawide
Planning Organization
in Sheridan doing 208b
planning; Step 1 of
201 is being donec
Adding secondary
treatment to
existing facility
10 MMgpd
7 MMgpd
None at present
MMgpd = million gallons per day
water Quality Division of Department of Environmental
Quality.
Refers to Federal Water Pollution Control Amendments of
1972, § 208, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1288 (Supp. 1976), which
encourages areawide waste treatment management.
£1
Refers to Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of
1972, § 201, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1281 (Supp. 1976), which provides
grants for construction of treatment works.
indicated in Table 9-25. Increases in wastewater resulting from
energy development-induced population increases are portioned as
shown in Table 9-26.
TABLE 9-26:
EXPECTED INCREASES IN
WASTEWATER FLOWS
Increased Flow Above 1975 Level
(million gallons per day)
Year
1980
1990
2000
Gillette
1
1.9
3.1
Casper
6.20
0.63
0.89
488
-------
New wastewater treatment facilities adequate to meet the
demands generated by these hypothetical developments and the
associated population increases should be planned for Gillette by
1980. These facilities must use the "best practicable" waste
treatment technology to conform to 1983 standards and must allow
for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants (ZDP) to meet 1985
goals.1 The 1985 goal could be met by using effluents from the
waste treatment facility for industrial process make-up water or
for irrigating local farmland. The energy development postulated
in this scenario should not require any increase in wastewater
treatment capacity for Casper.
9.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The gas wells and the coal mine for rail transport will be
constructed and in operation by 1980.
1. Surface Mine and Gas Wells
The surface coal mine may have several disturbing effects on
the local Fort Union Formation aquifers. The coal mine will
probably intersect either perched or water-table aquifers and
disrupt aquifer flow patterns. If the mine is below the water
table (the coal seams are aquifers in parts of the Fort Union
Formation), mine dewatering will be necessary, and depletion of
the aquifers will result. Discharges from mine dewatering
probably will not exceed 500 gpm. Local springs and seeps on
hillsides may dry up, and water levels in local wells may be
lowered. Additionally, the base flow of streams in the area may
be reduced. To comply with the zero-discharge provisions of
current legislation, water from dewatering will be used for dust
control and washing or will be reinjected in Fort Union aquifers
an adequate distance down-gradient to prevent recycling of water
to the mine. Thus, the loss to the aquifers will only be local.
After the coal slurry pipeline begins operation in 1985, reinjec-
tion can be discontinued, and the water from dewatering can be
piped to the slurry preparation plant for use as process water.
Depending on the composition of the overburden, weathering
and oxidation of the spoil material may result in the release of
contaminants. Both natural precipitation and water added for
revegetation may pick up the contaminants and transport them into
local aquifers. Aquifers in the immediate mine area will be.
affected the most. Aquifers in coal beds that are mined will be
destroyed, and aquifers in the overburden will experience large
1Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§
101, 301? 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
489
-------
changes in such properties as porosity and permeability. No
alluvial aquifers are close enough to the mine to be affected by
mining operations.
Prior to 1980, revegetation will not have been initiated.
As the quantity of trapped runoff water should be less than mine
requirements for dust suppression, it will be used in conjunction
with water from dewatering operations for dust suppression.
Surface-water drainage patterns will be affected by mine
excavations, some of which will trap runoff. Unless these mines
are pumped out regularly, some of the impounded water may even-
tually percolate into the groundwater system but should not
produce any significant impacts. Losses in runoff due to mine
excavations are not expected to be significant locally because
area streams are ephemeral and runoff flow would quickly dry up
in .any case.
The gas wells will have little or no impact on local surface-
water or groundwater systems, provided that proper well drilling
and completion practices are used.
2. Municipal Facilities
The increase in population associated with the Gillette
scenario will require an additional 3,190 acre-ft/yr of water by
1980 (see Table 9-22). This additional water will be taken
either from local aquifers in the Fort Union Formation or from
the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance. A well or well
field capable of producing about 870 gpm will be required. This
well represents a significant withdrawal, especially from the
local Fort Union aquifers. Some of the population increase will
take place in rural areas, rather than in Gillette. The increased
withdrawal of groundwater at individual homesites is not expected
to be significant.
Contamination of local bedrock aquifers from septic tank
systems associated with the homesites may pose a significant
water quality problem where the housing and septic tank densities
become great enough to exceed the natural renovation capacity of
the substrate. The Gillette area has an expansive clay soil that
is not especially desirable for septic tank drainage fields and
may become clogged or overloaded.
The increased capacity requirement for wastewater treatment
will be about 1 million gallons per day (MMgpd). This will
necessitate construction of a new treatment facility at Gillette
or expansion of the existing facility. Unless new facilities
come on-line to meet these requirements, some surface-water
pollution may result from overloads and/or bypasses.
490
-------
B. Impacts to 1990
The coal mines and energy conversion facilities for the
slurry pipeline, the 3,000-megawatt electric power plant, the
Lurgi high-Btu (British thermal unit)- gasification plant, and the
uranium mine and processing mill will be in operation by 1985.
1. Surface Mines and Gas Wells
The three coal mines and one uranium mine that will become
operational between 1980 and 1990 will have impacts similar to
those outlined in the preceding section. Perched aquifers or
water-table aquifers in the Fort Union and Wasatch Formations may
be intersected during mining operations. Where mine dewatering
is necessary, aquifer depletion will be accentuated. Where
mining takes place near streams, aquifers in the stream alluvium
may be disturbed or destroyed by mining operations. If improper
reclamation practices are used, weathering or overburden may
result in the release of trace elements and other dissolved salts.
Surface-water impacts from the additional mines that will be
opened during this period will have the same general impacts as
stated earlier for the export coal mine. The uranium mine will
also operate in a similar manner. Water supply requirements for
dust control and revegetation will be met with water from trapped
runoff and mine dewatering activities.
The gas wells should continue to have little or no impact on
surface-water or groundwater systems.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Construction activities will increase greatly during this
time period causing an increase in construction-related impacts
such as removal of vegetation and disturbance of the soil.
The plants in operation by 1990 will probably not signifi-
cantly affect the quantity of recharge to the shallow
bedrock aquifers or the alluvial aquifers in the scenario area.
As a result of either the failure or inadequacy of pond liners, on-
site holding ponds may leak pollutants to local aquifers.
The uranium processing plant will obtain its process water
from the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance. As noted
earlier, 1,350 acre-ft/yr (about 800 gpm) will be used by the
mill. This quantity of water will contribute to the depletion of
the Madison aquifer.
The impact of the energy conversion facilities on distant
surface waters will be larger than the impact on local ground-
waters. Approximately 49,500 acre-ft/yr of water will be with-
drawn from the Yellowstone River at Miles City for power generation
491
-------
and Lurgi gasification (see Table 9-20). The coal slurry
pipeline will take about 18,400 acre-ft/yr from the North Platte.
Since Gillette and the coal slurry facility are outside the
Yellowstone River Basin, Wyoming cannot transfer Yellowstone
River water to the facility without the consent of Montana and
North Dakota. In any case, Wyoming can only use water that has
been allocated to it by the Yellowstone Compact. Agreements will
have to be made for Wyoming to remove water from the Yellowstone
River in Montana.
The Yellowstone River at Miles City has an average yield of
8,166,510 acre-ft/yr. Withdrawal for the scenario energy facili-
ties will not be a significant part of this flow. The minimum
flow of record is 721,602 acre-ft/yr (996 cubic feet per second
[cfs] ) . The average withdrawal (68 cfs) is equivalent to 7
percent of this minimum flow (see Table 9-20). As each of the
facilities will have on-site reservoirs, withdrawals could be
reduced during low-flow periods and the plants would draw from
the reservoirs.
The minimum flow of record for the North Platte River near
Glenrock (about 28 miles upstream from Douglas) is about 130,000
acre-ft/yr (176 cfs). The withdrawal of 18,400 acre-ft/yr (about
25 cfs) is approximately 14 percent of this low-flow value. An
on-site reservoir will be used in low-flow periods to decrease or
alleviate any degradation of in-stream needs.
The uranium mine and facilities will use local groundwater
and are not expected to have a significant impact on surface
water.
About 91,000 tons of solid wastes in the form of processing
tailings will be produced by the uranium mill.l These tailings
will be disposed of in tailings ponds that will also be used for
the disposal of liquid and solid chemical and radiological
wastes.2 These wastes may pose a particularly large hazard to
local aquifers should the tailings ponds leak. The degree of the
hazard depends on the chemistry and radiology of the tailings and
U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing,
Fuels and Materials. Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel
Cycle, WASH-1248. Washington, D.C.: Atomic Energy Commission,
1972, p. B-2.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed'
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974.
492
-------
other wastes deposited in the ponds. The effectiveness of any
pond liners provided will also strongly influence the degree of
hazard.
No significant impact on surface water is expected of other
plant effluents because discharge technology that meets the
goals of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of
1972 will be used.
3. Municipal Facilities
During the 1980-1990 period, the municipal requirements for
water at Gillette will increase to 5,110 acre-ft/yr. This
increased withdrawal, which is equivalent to about 3,170 gpm,
presents a significant possibility for aquifer depletion from
either the local well field or the Madison aquifer near Sundance.
Because both Gillette and Casper are projected to use ground-
water as a source for municipal needs, there will be no major
impacts on local surface water hydrology as a result of with-
drawals.
Increased capacity requirements for both water supply and
wastewater capacities will be needed. Both cities may be able
to sell effluent for reclamation or irrigation and thus satisfy
the requirements for ZDP.
Runoff will be increased by the expansion of existing towns,
and some lowering of the water quality in nearby streams is
expected from this.
The potential for aquifer pollution from increased septic
tank use in rural areas will be similar to that described for
the preceding decade but will be larger in magnitude.
C. Impacts to 2000
The coal mine and conversion facility for the Synthane plant
will be operating by 1995. The Synthoil operation will be in
production by 2000. The other energy conversion facilities,
their associated mines, and the gas wells will continue operation
during this decade.
1. Surface Mines and Gas Wells
Coal mines for the Synthane and Synthoil plants will have
groundwater and surface-water impacts similar to those described
earlier for coal mines for other scenario facilities. However,
since the mines for the new facilities are smaller; the
increase in impacts will be smaller than for the 1980-1990
period. The decrease in runoff as a result of mining activities
will be less than 0.3 percent of the normal flow in the
493
-------
Little Powder, Belle Fourche, or Cheyenne River Basins, and this
reduction is not expected to be significant.
As the mines continue to operate, reclamation efforts will
increase and larger water requirements must be satisfied by the
use of water from mine dewatering and from wastewater treatment
plant effluent at Gillette (see Table 9-21) .
The gas wells should continue to have very little impact on
surface-water or groundwater systems.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Water requirements for the Gillette scenario taken from the
Yellowstone River will increase to about 59,600 acre-ft/yr in the
1990-2000 decade. At this level, the average withdrawal (82 cfs)
is equivalent to about 8 percent of the minimum recorded histor-
ical flow (996 cfs). Water requirements for the North Platte
will increase to about 37,800 acre-ft/yr or an average
withdrawal of 52 cfs. This withdrawal is about 30 percent of the
historical low flow of record (176 cfs). Water could be released
into the North Platte from upstream reservoirs (such as the Path-
finder Reservoir or Seminoe Reservoir) to decrease the deleterious
effect of these withdrawals if the water was available. Alter-
natively, water could be conveyed from the Green River to the
North Platte to augment flows or to supply water to the facili-
ties (see Figure 9-5) . The impact of these withdrawals on the
North Platte River during low-flow periods could be significant
both in terms of flow depletion and from salt-concentrating
effects. Alternate surface sources (such as a pipeline from Lake
Oahe on the Upper Missouri River in South Dakota) or the use of
groundwater to meet part of the needs may be necessary.
The Synthane and Synthoil conversion facilities will have
the same type of pollution prevention systems as the previous
energy facilities. These include the discharge of all effluentr.
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds to prevent
Contamination of local surface-water or groundwater systems.
Runoff retention facilities will also be used.
3. Municipal Facilities
Municipal requirements for water will increase to 8,450
acre-ft/yr at Gillette and 2,000 acre-ft/yr at Casper due to the
population increases from the energy conversion facilities. This
increased withdrawal will lower groundwater levels, especially in
the shallow aquifers in the Gillette area and_,the Madison aquifer
near Sundance. To meet these water needs, either the well field
in the vicinity of Sundance could be expanded or surface-water
pipelines could be used to import water.
494
-------
Wastewater treatment facilities at Gillette must be expanded
to accommodate the additional needs (see Table 9-25). Effluent
will continue to be used for reclamation or irrigation and
thereby satisfy the requirements for ZDP by 1985-
Runoff from urban expansion will continue to increase
resulting in further lowering of the water quality in nearby
streams.
The potential for aquifer pollution from increased use of
septic tanks by rural populations will increase as in previous
decades.
D. Impacts after 2000
The mines will continue to operate with the same impacts as
stated in the 1990-2000 decade until they are exhausted.
Although many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated after the
mines and their associated energy conversion facilities are
decommissioned, irrigation of the areas will cease, some vege-
tation will be lost, and erosion will increase. After the mines
are shut down, re-contoured, and revegetated, disruption of
shallow aquifer systems will continue and surface flows will
continue to be modified both in volume and quality.
After the energy conversion facilities are shut down, the
berms around the ponds will probably lose their protective
vegetation and erode, eventually resulting in breaches in the
berms. When this happens, the materials within the pond site
will erode and enter the surface-water system or percolate into
the groundwater aquifers. The low precipitation in the scenario
area will be a retarding factor in the transport of these materials.
Population levels will remain stable at least until the
mines and associated energy conversion technologies are decom-
missioned. Thus, groundwater depletions will continue, and there
will be a reduction in the quality of surface-water resources in
the vicinity of Gillette and Casper due to runoff from the popu-
lation increases. The amount of water in any surface-water
sources used to supply municipal needs will also be reduced.
After the facilities are decommissioned, the towns of
Gillette and Casper will remain but populations will decline.
9.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts
The water requirements for the postulated energy facilities
total as much as 105,620 acre-ft/yr, including water needs for
mine revegetation (see Tables 9-20 and 9-21). There are insuf-
ficient groundwater or surface-water resources in the immediate
scenario area, and supplies must be imported by pipeline from
such sources as the Yellowstone River and its tributaries (Clarks
495
-------
Fork, Bighorn, Tongue, and Powder), Belle Fourche River, Green
River, North Platte River, and Lake Oahe on the Upper Missouri
River in South Dakota. The cost for this water will vary with
the distance from the facility site. Before these sources can
be used for energy development, legal restrictions from several
compacts need to be lifted. Stream-flow withdrawals will have
some effect on downstream salt concentrations. Since in-stream
flow needs have not been established for all stream segments,
this impact cannot foe evaluated.
A potential long-term groundwater pollution problem is pond
leakage. Pond liners should forestall this problem during the
life of the plants, but the materials are likely to eventually
leak through the liners and into the soil and groundwater.
Another possible impact that would follow the cessation of
maintenance activities is the eventual destruction of berms
containing salts, ash, trace materials, sanitary sludge, and
scrubber sludge. If concentrations of these materials enter
surface waters, both local biota and downstream water uses might
be affected.
Gillette will face a significant impact in terms of providing
adequate water supplies, municipal water treatment, and waste-
water treatment facilities for the large influx of people expected
during the scenario period. Gillette will need an additional
8,450 acre-ft/yr of water and must expand its wastewater treat-
ment facility from a current capacity of 1.6 MMgpd to a capacity
of 4.7 MMgpd by the year 2000 due to population increases from
energy development (see Tables 9-22, 9-24, and 9-25), The water
supply requirements of Gillette may contribute to depletion of
local aquifers and the Madison aquifer.
Population increases in rural areas could cause deterioration
of water quality in local aquifers from septic tanks.
Identification and description of several water impacts has
been limited by available information. Missing data includes
detailed information about process streams (needed to identify
the composition of discharges to settling ponds) and about the
rate of movement of toxic materials through pond liners (needed
to estimate the portions that might reach shallow aquifers),
More quantitative information will be sought during the remainder
of the project so that these potential impacts can be evaluated.
9.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
9.4.1 Introduction
All the hypothetical developments in the Gillette scenario
will occur in Campbell County in northeast Wyoming. This area
experienced an oil and gas boom in the 1960's, followed by a
496
-------
population decline in the latter part of that decade. The current
coal boom began in the early 1970's, and, the area's population
has been growing steadily since then. in 1970, the population
was twice that of 1960. With the hypothetical development
included in this scenario, the population will continue to
increase but at an accelerated rate. Most of the social, eco-
nomic, and political impacts in the area will be related to
population growth.
9.4.2 Existing Conditions
Campbell County has an area of 3 million acres. In 1974,
its population was 12,000 by U.S. Census Bureau estimates, giving
it a population density of 2.7 persons per square mile. Local
estimates run as high as 17,000 for 1975. More than 80 percent
of the population is centered in the only incorporated city,
Gillette, which is the county seat. Since much of the population
growth has occurred as a consequence of energy development, the
population is disproportionately young and male.
Table 9-27 gives the employment distributions in Gillette
during 1970 and in Campbell County during 1970 and 1975. As
shown, construction, mining, and services are the major employers.
Gillette also receives some economic benefit from hunters and
tourists enroute to Devil's Tower National monument, the Black
Hills, and Bighorn National Forest. Due to its location on
Interstate 90, Gillette also serves some visitors to Yellowstone
and Grand Teton National Parks.
Campbell County is governed by a board of three county
commissioners elected at large for 4-year terms. The incumbents
currently are all ranchers, indicating that long-time residents
of the area have not been displaced by newcomers as might be
expected with rapid growth.
The county provides few services by itself, in part because
they are provided by the state (social and health services) or
by the city and county jointly under the Joint Powers Act.l The
school system is countywide, and fire protection and airport
services are provided cooperatively by the city and county.
This act gives county and/or city governments the powers of
both governments when they work together. For a description of
this legislation, see Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A
Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy
Development, 1975, pp. 70-71.
497
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TABLE 9-27:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY
FOR 1970 AND 1975
Industry
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation
Communication and
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate
Services
Public Administration
Total
Gillette
1970
Number
1,027
221
86
167
44
610*
584,
60
2,799
Campbell
County
1970
Number
601
1,323
268
156
359
96
129
706
162
907
96
4,803
Campbell County
1975
Number
579
1,406
1,604
168a
457
175
164
898b
206
1,154C
122
6,933
Percent
8.4
20.3
23.1
2.4
6.6
2.5
2.4
13
3
16.6
1.8
100.0
Source: 1970: U.S., Department of the Census, Bureau of the
Census. Census of Population; 1970r General
Social and Economic Characteristics. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971.
1975: Estimated from data of Water Resources Research
Institute, University of Wyoming.
aMostly non-electric machinery.
Mostly motor vehicles and service stations.
°To a large extent in public schools.
498
-------
Currently under way is a joint effort to obtain funds from the
Wyoming Community Development Authority to drill new water wells
for the city.l
The city and county also cooperate in planning, animal
control, park maintenance, and snow removal. As noted earlier,
the county now provides about one-third of the support for the
Gillette Department of Planning and Development, which functions
in planning, zoning administration, city engineering, and building
inspection. The staff consists of a planner, assistant planner,
planning intern, city engineer, and several building inspectors.
Gillette is governed by a part-time mayor and six councilmen
who are elected for 4-year terms. The city also has a full-time
city administrator.
In addition to those services provided jointly with the
county, the city provides its residents sewer, garbage, and
electrical services. The electrical utility was recently expanded,
but the city's application to the Economic Development Admini-
stration for $2 million to fund the extension and improvement of
its sewage treatment facilities has been denied. The sewer
system has recently been expanded through loans from the Wyoming
Farm Loan Board.
The single countywide school district has met the needs of .a
growing population. In Gillette, two new elementary schools and
a junior high school have been built, and two existing elementary
schools have been enlarged. In large part, education problems
have been minimal because the rate of population growth has been
relatively steady and because the county's tax base has expanded
with energy development.
In addition to the help provided by the state under the
programs mentioned above, Gillette receives assistance from the
Gillette Human Services Project, staffed by recent graduates of
the University of Wyoming. This program (funded by the Economic
Development Administration, state revenue sharing funds, and the
Campbell County Children's Center) provides research assistance
The Community Development Authority was established to loan
money to communities and to provide additional financing capacity
to lending institutions for low-interest loans. The state's coal
impact tax, a severance tax, provides revenue to guarantee the
loans.
499
-------
for finding solutions to growth-related problems and also
provides extra manpower to human service agencies in impacted
communities.1
9.4.3 Population Impacts
In this scenario, the principal initial impact of energy
development on Gillette and northern Wyoming was from the workers
associated with the construction of an export surface coal mine
in 1975 and with gas drilling activities in 1976. The employment
related to the eight scenario developments is summarized in
Table 9-28. The cyclical nature of the construction activity is
evident, but a long-term new energy workforce of over 10 thousand
persons is expected by 2000.2 Overall population changes are
based on the annual energy employment (for both construction and
operation) and are estimated by means of an economic base model,
the employment data in Table 9-28, and two sets of time-dependent
multipliers (Table 9-29). The population estimates shown in
Table 9-30 and Figure 9-6 were distributed among Gillette, the
remainder of Campbell County, and Casper. No new population
clusters in Campbell County are explicitly considered here,
although scattered settlement is becoming more common. For
example, Atlantic Richfield is providing housing at the town of
Wright (near Reno Junction), about 40 miles south of Gillette.
Note that the population impacts would differ significantly for
a different construction schedule than that analyzed here.
The population of Campbell County will increase nearly six-
fold to 70,100 by the year 2000 given the energy development
proposed in the Gillette scenario. Most of this growth will
occur in and near Gillette, where the area will attain a popu-
lation of nearly 65,000 by 2000. Casper will achieve a popu-
lation of over 50,000 as a result of the scenario development and
will grow even larger if other extensive developments take place
in eastern and central Wyoming. The size of the facilities in
this scenario result in somewhat larger population estimates for
See Uhlmann, Julie M. Gillette Human Services Project.
Annual Report. August 31, 1976. Laramie, Wyo.: University of
Wyoming, Wyoming Human Services Project, 1976.
O '
Based on projections using Bechtel's energy supply planning
model. See Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning
Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
500
-------
TABLE 9-28:
NEW EMPLOYMENT IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Construction
110
780
1,340
2,370
2,420
1,080
2,780
5,800
8,130
5,480
740
0
0
0
0
60
760
2,830
4,890
3,380
2,280
4,490
5,210
3,710
1,250
0
Operation
0
0
0
880
1,140
2,450
2,450
2,680
3,890
5,080
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
6,050
6,640
6,830
6,830
6,830
7,110
8,580
10,320
Total
0
780
1,340
3,250
3,560
3,530
5,230
8,480
12,020
10,560
6,600
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,860
5,920
6,620
8,690
10,940
10,020
9,110
11,320
12,040
10,820
9,830
10,320
Source: Carasso, M., et a.l. The Energy
Supply Planning Model. San Francisco,
Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
501
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TABLE 9-29:
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
MULTIPLIERS FOR GILLETTE
SCENARIO POPULATION ESTIMATES
Service/Basic Multipliers3
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
and
after
Construction
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Operation
0.8
0.9
0.9
1
1
1.1
1.2
1.2
Population/Employee Multipliers'3
Construction 2.05
Operation 2 . 30
Services 2
values were selected after
examining several studies of the
northeastern Wyoming area, including
Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts.
A Description of Potential Socio-
economic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments on Campbell County,
Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Department of th<* Tnterior, Office
of Minerals Policy Development, 1975;
Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work
Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural
Aspects of Potential Coal Development in
the northern Great Plains. Discussion
Draft. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, 1974; U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Land Management, et al. Final Environ-
mental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the
Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of
Wyoming. 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau
of Land Management, 1974; Wyoming, Depart-
ment of Economic Planning.and Development.
Coal and Uranium Development of the Powder
River Basin—An Impact Analysis. Cheyenne,
Wyo.: Wyoming, Department of Economic
Planning and Development, 1974; U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation and Center for Interdisci-
plinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of
Major Coal Development on Public Services.
Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected
Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, 1974; Matson,
Roger A., and Jeanette B. Studer. Energy
Resources Development in Wyoming's Powder
River Basin: An Assessment of Potential
Social and Economic Impacts. Denver, Colo.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1974.
Adapted from Mountain West Research.
Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West
Regional Commission, 1976.
502
-------
TABLE 9-30: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY,
GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1974-2000a
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Campbell
County*3
12,000C
25,400
44,000
43,700
58,150
70,100
Gillette
10,000
22,500
40,200
39,950
53,600
65,100
Casper
40,000
42,200
45,000
46,750
48,650
50,600
Estimates incorporate an annual natural
increase of 0.8 percent through 1990 and
0.5 percent from 1991-2000. Some yearly
peaks, caused by the employment needs in
Table 9-27, are missed in the above
presentation. Given the assumptions of
the scenario, the estimates of population
increase should be considered to have a
± 20-percent range associated with them.
Campbell County was assumed to be the
location for 100 percent of all energy
development employment, with 90 percent
occurring in or near Gillette alone.
Ninety percent of service population was
assumed to locate in Gillette with the
remaining 10 percent at Casper.
CU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau Of
the Census. "Estimates of the Population
of Wyoming Counties: July 1, 1973 and
July 1, 1974." Current Population Reports,
Series P-26, No. 103 (April 1975), p. 3.
The local estimate for 1975 is closer to
17,000 (Mike Enzi, personal communication)
and will be incorporated in future
reports.
503
-------
1?
C
o
tfl
3
O
C
0
JO
-3
Q.
0
a.
70 -.
60-
50-
40-
30 -j
20 -
10-
70 -
60-
50 -
40 -
30-
20-
10-
n
X*
/ i
/?
. /
/^
/
Y
i 1 1 ! 1
•-^>i
Campbell
County, total
Gillette
Casper
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 9-6:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY,
GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1975-2000
504
-------
Campbell County than previous studies have found; thus, the
population growth discussed in this section may overestimate
future conditions.1
Age-sex distributions of the projected population in Camp-
bell County provide an indication of housing and educational
needs in the area. Using 1970 age distributions, new employment
in the county was assumed to correspond to data reported in the
Construction Worker Profile.2
The marital status of construction workers and age distri-
bution of their children were also assumed to be distributed
according to recent empirical findings in the West. The resulting
age-sex distributions (Table 9-31) show increases in the 25-34
age group through 1985 and in the 35-64 age groups after 1985.
During intensive construction periods, the relative proportion of
males to females is especially high, although males comprise at
least 51.5 percent of the population throughout the 25-year
period.
9.4.4 Housing and School Impacts
Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated from
the information presented in Tables 9-30 and 9-31 and by assuming
that the 6-13 age group constitutes elementary school enrollment
and that the 14-16 age group is secondary school enrollment
(Table 9-32 and Figure 9-7). The development proposed by the
scenario results in a 130-percent increase in the current number
of households by 1980, rising to a total of 28,000 by the year
2000. At no time is the annual rate of growth in housing demand
less than about 5 percent.
See, for example, U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau
of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anti-
cipated Effects of Maior Coal Development on Public Services,
Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.:
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, pp. 149-175? and
Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development. Coal
and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An Impact
Analysis. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming, Department of Economic
Planning and Development, 1974, pp. 51-75.
2
See Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile.
Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,
1976, p. 38.
505
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TABLE 9-31:
PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTIONS OF
CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000a
Age
Female
65-over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13'
0-5
Total .
Male
65-over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975
.025
.024
.090
.076
.046
.025
.031
.094
.071
.482
.022
.029
.120
.085
.041
.022
.032
.097
.069
.517
1980
.013
.018
.083
.118
.048
.024
.024
.076
.074
.478
.012
.021
.104
.136
.050
.024
.025
.077
.073
.522
1985
.009
.014
.075
.132
.048
.023
.028
.082
.074
.485
.008
.016
.088
.145
.050
.024
.028
.083
.074
.516
1990
.010
.019
.125
.114
.041
.032
.034
.071
.039
.435
• .011 ,
.023
.142
.122
.041
.032
.034
.071
.039
.515
1995
.011
.126
.125
.106
.051
.031
.025
.065
.040
.480
.013
.030
.143
.118
.054
.031
.025
.065
.040
.519
2000
.015
.139
.129
.116
.043
.025
.027
.063
.026
.483
.017
.042
.146
.126
.044
.025
.027
.063
.026
.516 |
T'otal may not sum to 1.0 because of rounding.
TABLE 9-32:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000
Year
1975
.1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Number of
Households
3,800<=
8,800
14,550
16,200
22,600
28,000
Number of
Elementary
School Children3
2 , 300°
3,900
7,250
6,200
7,550
8,800
Number of
Secondary
School Children13
760C
1,250
2,450
2,950
2,900
3,800
Ages 6-13.
bAges 14-16.
°Estiraates.
506
-------
i40^
c
o
30 -
0)
.§ 20 ^
c
LU
Jj 10 -
O
Households
Elementary
Secondary
I I I I I
1975 I960 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 9-7: PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY AND
SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN CAMPBELL COUNTY,
1975-2000
-------
TABLE 9-33:
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING
BY TYPE OF DWELLING3
Period
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Mobile
Home
2,650
3,050
875
3,400
2,860
Single
Family
950
1,100
300
1,200
1,020
Multi-
Family
600
700
200
770
650
Otherb
800
920
260
1,020
860
Compiled from Table 4 and data in Mountain West
Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional
Commission, 1976, p. 103.
e.g., campers and recreational vehicles parked
on recreational or private land.
Approximately one-third of Gillette's current housing is
mobile homes,! a pattern that is expected to continue as shown in
Table 9-33. (The figures in Table 9-33 are perhaps overly opti-
mistic about the extent to which single and multi-family housing
construction will occur.) An average of about one thousand new
single-family homes should easily be filled in Campbell County
during each 5-year period through 2000.
School enrollment impacts will change over time; elementary
school enrollment in the scenario is expected to increase nearly
70 percent by 1980 and to reach 8,800 by 2000. This upward trend
is broken only by a slight decline between 1985 and 1990, which
reflects the absence of construction activity. High school,
enrollment shows a similar trend, continuing to increase except
for a slight drop between 1990 and 1995. At an average class
size of 21^students, 100 new classrooms will be needed by 1980 at
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council. Compilation of
Raw Data on Energy Impacted Communities including Character-
istics, Conditions, Resources and Structures. Denver, Colo.:
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1976.
508
-------
TABLE 9-34:
SCHOOL DISTRICT FINANCE NEEDS' FOR
CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000a
Year
1975d
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Enrollment
Increase
Over
1975
3,060
2,090
6,640
6,090
7,390
9,540
Classrooms
(21 students
per room)
150
100
316
290
352
454
Capital
Expenditures
Increase
(millions
of
dollars)13
5.23
16.60
15.23
18.48
23.85
Operating
Expenditures
Increase
(millions
of
dollars)0
6.85
4.18
13.28
12.18
14.78
19.08
These figures may be compared with Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L.
Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from
Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Wash-
ington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of
Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 24, 78, 87.
An average of $2,500 per pupil space was obtained from Froomkin,
Joseph, J.R. Endriss, and R.W. Stump. Population, Enrollment
and Costs of Elementary and Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-
81. A Report to the President's Commission on School Finance.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971, and inflated
to 1975 dollars.
°An overall average of $2,000 per pupil was assumed.
data from Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.
Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Develop-
ment Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII.
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
Denver, Colo.
a cost of approximately $5.25 million (Table 9-34). The school
district's financial needs/ will probably triple by the end of the
century, although there will be a brief period of overcapacity
in the late 1980's.
9.4.5 Land-Use Impacts
Energy facilities involved in this scenario will
occupy about 73 square miles in the Campbell County area. This
amounts to about 1.5 percent of the county's area and excludes
housing and other development-related land uses. The population
509
-------
TABLE 9-35:
LAND REQUIRED FOR POPULATION-RELATED
DEVELOPMENT IN CAMPBELL COUNTY
(in additional acres after 1975)a
Land-Use
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community
Facilities
Industry
Total (acres)
(square miles)
(square kilometers)
1980
670
134
16
42
67
929
1.5
3.7
1986
1,600
320
38
99
160
2,217
3.5
8.9
1990
1,585
317
38
98
159
2,197
3.4
8.9
1995
2,308
462
55
143
231
3,199
5.0
12.9
2000
2,905
581
70
180
291
4,027
6.3
16.2
Assumes: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10
acres per 1,000 population; commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population;
public and community facilities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; industrial
land = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates. Impact
Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional
Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974,
pp. 29-30.
expansion can be expected to occupy about 7 square miles (Table ,
9-35). Overall land development in the county should amount-to
less than 100 square miles, although successful reclamation as
mining progresses would cut the estimates here by about 50
percent. Very little of the land in the county is cropland
(about 4 percent); most of the land on and near the resource
sites is currently used to graze cattle and sheep.1 Little of
this activity would be affected by mining, although 10 percent of
the county will be within .5 mile of some transportation right-
of-way, including rail, extra-high voltage transmission lines,
and slurry pipelines.
In addition to the actual occupation of the land for resi-
dential, industrial, and governmental uses, other land can
become greatly changed due to leisure time activities of resi-
dents. Already hunting and especially off-road vehicle traffic
has taken place on private and public land. This potential
impact is elaborated in the discussion of ecological impacts
(Section 9.5).
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary! Report, Campbell County,
Wyoming. Washington, D.C.s Government Printing Office, 1976.
510
-------
TABLE 9-36:
PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR CAMPBELL
COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)31
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Less
Than
4,000
.061
, .048
.051
.058
.055
.059
4,000
to
5,999
.039
.035
.040
.045
.044
.047
6,000
to
7,999
.039
.036
.037
.040
.038
.041
8,000
to
9,999
.059
.063
.070
.073
.069
.075
10,000
to
11,999
.066
.084
.094
.097
.097
.102
12,000
to
14,999
.113
.120
.125
.127
.126
.129
15,000
to
24,999
.377
.442
.446
.432
.445
.434
25,000
and
Over
.246
.171
.136
.128
.128
.113
Median
Household
Income
18,200
17,580
16,390
16,390
16,600
16,100
uata. for 1975 are adapted from U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Household Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's. Cities and Counties: 1970* Washington,
D.C.: Government .Printing Office, 1973, 'p. 57, and inflated to 1975 dollars. Income
distributions for construction, operation, and service workers are from Mountain West
Research. Construction Worker Profile. Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West
Regional Commission, 1976, p. 50, assuming that new service workers' households have
same income distribution as long-time residents and that "other newcomers" are opera-
tion employees.
9.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
The economy of Campbell County is now dominated by mining,
agriculture, and construction (totaling 48 percent of total
personal income). Conversely, services, local government,
finance, insurance, and real estate employ less than state and
national averages.1 Gillette's economy has a significant contri-
bution from out-of-state hunters. This mix should become some-
what less concentrated in energy-related sectors during the next
25 years as service-sector employment gradually increases to a
more average level compared to state and national employment.
Primarily because of the change in industry mix, the county-
wide income distribution should gradually decline to $16,100
(1975 dollars) during the 1975-2000 period. 2 However, despite this
11.5-percent decline, the countywide average will still be above the
current national average (Table 9-36 and Figure 9-8). The
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
This projection does not include national trends, such as
technological change, productivity gains, etc.
511
-------
more than 25,000
15,000-24,999
12,000-14,999
10,000-11,999
8000-9999
6000-7999
4000-5999
less than 4000
.246
.377
.113
.066
.059
.039
.039
.061
.171
.442
.120
.084
.063
.036
.035
.048
.136
.446
.125
.094
.070
.037
.040
.051
.128
,432
.127
.097
.073
.040
.045
.058
.128
.445
.126
.097
.069
.038
.044
.055
-
.113
.434
.129
.102
.075
.041
.047
.059
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Projected income distribution for Campbell County, Wyoming, 1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars]
FIGURE 9-8:
PROPORTIONAL PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION
FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
512
-------
proportion of households in income categories between $8,000 and
$15,000 will increase, while the proportion in the over $25,000
category will decrease. High school age boys are being attracted
to energy-related employment and, as a consequence, high school
girls are being employed in gas stations and other services.
This pattern is likely to continue for some time.
The expected increase in the service sector will actually be
caused by an anticipated expansion in local business activity.
The rapid increase in the number of businesses in Gillette, which
has tripled since 1968, should continue. Even if the rural popu-
lation growth is greater than expected, Gillette will still bene-
fit from retail activity because it is the only market center in
the county. Casper, the nearest city comparable to Gillette,
also will receive additional retail activity because of Campbell
County's energy development.
To the extent that export mines are developed, rather than
mines directly attached to conversion facilities, the local
economy will experience less direct benefit. On the other hand,
the smaller population would place smaller demands on public
services.
Tourism is not likely to be greatly affected because, unlike
many parts of the West, Gillette is not a particularly attractive
place for tourism. Some traffic occurs because of Devil's Tower
National Monument 60 miles east of town, but the area does not
compare with the major national parks in the region as a tourist
attraction. However, hunting of the large antelope, deer, and
other animal populations is likely to increase substantially
(within state licensing limits) as a result of the increased
population (see Section 9.5).
B. Fiscal
I Municipal services will be severely strained, especially
early in the population expansion period.1 An estimate of
capital expenditure needs for Gillette emphasizes the importance
of water and sewage facilities in rapid population growth areas
(Table 9-37). In overall operating expenditures, per-capita
costs tend to rise as a town's population increases; however,
much of the increase can be attributed to capital expenditures
and debt service.2 Employing an average of $120 per capita, the
•'"See Gillette, Wyoming, City of. Catalog, of Public Invest-
ment Projects. 1976 to 1986. Gillette, Wyo.: City of Gillette,
1976.
2
, THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to-an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land
Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974.
513
-------
TABLE 9-37:
PROJECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURES REQUIRED FOR
PUBLIC SERVICES IN GILLETTE, 1975-2000
(millions of dollars)a
Period
1975-1980C
1980-1985<*
1990-19956
1995-20006
Water and
Sewage
22.7
31.2
23.6
20.2
Hospital
11
10
5
Airport
7
Otherb
4
7.9
9.1
5.2
Total
37.7
46.1
42.7
30.4
1985-1990 is omitted because a slight decline in population
(and therefore service demands) occurs during that period.
•L^
Other includes parks and recreation/ city-owned utilities/
libraries, police and fire protection, administration/ public
works, and some street and road work. Sixty percent of the
coal severance tax must be used for roads, providing perhaps
some relief in that category. See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary
L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts
from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office
of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p. 59.
From Gillette, Wyoming, City of. Catalog of Public Invest-
ment Projects. 1976 to 1986. Gillette, Wyo.: City of
Gillette, 1976.
°Trom Gillette. Public Investment plus increment for addi-
tional population expected for scenario development (40,200
versus 35,000). Increment computed from information in U.S.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center
for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Manor
Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in
Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974, p. 321? THK Associates. Impact
Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale
Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver/
Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30; Lindauer, R.L. Solutions
to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns Caused by Large Energy
Developments. Denver, Colo.: Exxon Co., USA, 1975, pp. 43-44.
eComputed from references in footnote d above.
514
-------
TABLE 9-38:
NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES
OF GILLETTE
Year
1975b
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980-2000a
(thousands of 1975 dollars)
2,514
4,014
6,138
6,108
7,746
9,126
Based on $120 per capita (1975 dollars)
broken down roughly as follows: roads
and streets (25 percent), health and
hospitals (14 percent), police (7 per-
cent) , fire protection (12 percent),
parks and recreation (6 percent),
libraries (4 percent), administration
(10 percent) and other (12 percent).
See THK Associates. Impact Analysis
and Development Patterns Related to an
Oil Shale Industry; Regional Develop-
ment and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.:
THK Associates, 1974, p. 41. The $120
average is probably low for Gillette.
Source: Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L.
Watts. A Description of Potential Socio-
economic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming-.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy
Development, 1975, p. 30. For detailed
projections of short-term needs (through
1985), that source is particularly
useful.
additional operating expenditures required of Gillette as a
result of the scenario increase an average of 5.3 percent per
year (compound) through 2000 (Table 9-38). The estimated operating
expenditures are probably low (perhaps as much as 20 percent),
but they indicate the increase in financial needs with a popu-
lation increase. Adding these operating expenditures to the
capital needs in Table 9-37 shows that Gillette will have problems in
meeting population-related needs through 1985 and again after
1990. A major cause of these problems will be that energy
development taking place outside Gillette's city limits will not
515
-------
provide the city with the tax revenues needed to fund the
required municipal services.
The largest portion of new taxes will come from levies
directly on the facilities, and the largest of these items will
be the property tax. By the end of the century, the energy
developments in our scenario will carry an assessed value of
about $3 billion, or almost 10 times the total current 1975
assessment in Campbell County. Until the last few years of the
scenario, the new values consist of roughly equal portions of
facilities (assessed at 24 percent of invested value) and coal
production (assessed at 100 percent of each year's extracted
value). The final facility to be added, a 100,000 barrels per
day coal liquefaction plant, is very capital intensive, bringing
$3.9 billion of new property to the county or some 24 times as
much as the value of the coal which annually supplies it (and
comparable with the value of all other facilities in the scenario
combined).
When the current mill levies—48.98 mills for schools (local
and state programs) and 11.99 mills for other county purposes1—
are applied to the energy facilities, new revenues would be
generated as in Table 9-39. The major beneficiary of new property tax
revenues would be education. More than $150 million would be
added annually to school budgets if the current rates were main-
tained. However, as indicated in Table 9-34, the school will
need only $19 million per year in additional operating expendi-
tures to maintain current standards. Clearly, there would be
considerable leeway for lowering the school mill levy.
Other revenues derived directly from energy facilities
include severance taxes and royalties. The Impact Assistance
Act2 will collect 2 percent of the value of coal extracted until
$120 million has been accumulated. The mines in our scenario
will produce that much coal by 1990, so the tax which is collected
statewide will probably terminate in the 1980's. Proceeds will
be allocated by the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to impacted areas for
building infrastructure, especially roads. Another tax of 1.5
percent will be collected permanently to establish the Mineral
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation
and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of
Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in
Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974, p. 341.
2
The act provides funds to mitigate impacts related to the
development of coal, gas, shale oil, and other minerals.
516
-------
TABLE 9-39: NEW PROPERTY TAX REVENUES, CAMPBELL COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Source
Value,pf facilities3
Value of coal production^3
Value of residential
de ve 1 opmen t c
School revenue, Campbell^
Other revenue, Campbell^
Municipal revenue,
Gillette6
Value of residential
development, Casper0
Property tax revenue.
Casper^
1980
633
216
77
19
4.6
.62
12.8
.19
1985
2,849
698
184
70
17.1
1.47
28.8
.42
1990
2,849
790
183
74
18.2
1.46
38.9
.57
1995
3,756
981
266
95
23.3
2.13
49.8
.73
2000
7,748
1,234
335
155
38.1
2.68
61.1
.89
en
M
-o
Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.:
Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
Scenario definition combined with SRI projections of price.
£
Population projected as in text combined with assumption of $5,762 per capita
(market value) for residential and commercial development. See Hayen, Roger L.,
and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-
Related Developments on Campbell Cdunty, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p. 108.
dAt
current rates. See text.
"At assumed mill levy of 8 applied to residential and commercial development.
-------
TABLE 9-40:
SEVERANCE TAXES AND PUBLIC ROYALTIES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Source
Impact Assistance Acta
Mineral Trust Fundb
Interest on Trust
Funda , c
State share of federal
royalties*, d
1980
4.3
14
.7
6.1
1985
14
61
3
19.6
1990
0
132
6.6
22.2
1995
0
216
10.8
27.6
2000
0
319
16
34.7
Annual rate.
Accumulation.
°At 5 percent.
j
Assuming 45 percent of coal under Federal lease.
Trust Fund.1 Income from the fund will go to the state's general
fund, but the principal will be used for loans to localities.
Finally, the state will receive 50 percent of federal coal
royalties. Under recent legislation, j royalties have been targeted at
one-eighth of the coal's value. (Approximately 45 percent of the
coal in the scenario area is owned by the federal government.)
The various mineral taxes and royalties are summarized in Table
9-40.
The other public revenue impacts in this scenario, sales
taxes and utility fees, are population-related. New sales tax
revenues can be estimated on the basis of the incomes already
projected. At each point in time, all the following factors are
multiplied together: number of households, average income per
household,2 average propensity to buy taxable goods,3 the sales
See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of
Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on
Campbell County. Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 69-70.
2$17,600 in 1980, $16,910 in 1985 and thereafter.
3
56 percent of income in the Mountain States.
518
-------
TABLE 9-41: ADDITIONAL POPULATION-RELATED TAXES AND FEES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Source
Retail sales, Campbell
Retail sales, Casper
Sales Tax Shares
State
Campbell County
Gillette City
Casper and Natrona
Total
Utility fees, Gillettea
Utility fees, Caspera
1980
49.3
8.2
1.15
.25
.25
.08
1.72
1.96
.35
1985
101.8
15.9
2.35
.51
.51
.16
3.53
4.74
.79
1990
117.4
25.1
2.85
.59
.59
.25
4.28
4.70
1.06
1995
178
33.4
4.23
.89
.89
.33
6.34
6.84
1.36
2000
229.2
41.7
5.42
1.15
1.15
.42
8.13
8.65
1.66
At $157 per capita. See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A
Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development,
1975, p. 118.
tax rate,l and the split between levels of government.2 These
factors are brought together in Table 9-41 along with an estimate
of municipal utility fees.
All the revenue sources identified above can be regrouped by
level of government, as in Table 9-42. Comparisons can then be
readily made with the demands for new public expenditures (Tables
9-37 and 9-38). For Gillette to meet its expenditures, it must
share costs with Campbell County or annex county land to add to
the city tax base. (Intergovernmental financial relations are
discussed further in Section 9.4.8.)
Three percent by the state, another 1 percent optional by
county.
Two-thirds to the state, roughly one-sixth each to county
and city.
519
-------
TABLE 9-42:
NEW REVENUE FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT,
BY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
Wyoming (statea)
Campbell (county)
Gillette (city)
Casper (city and
county)
1980
12.3
4.8
2.8
.6
1985
39
17.6
6.7
1.4
1990
31.6
18.8
6.8
2.4
1995
42.6
24.2
9.9
2.4
2000
56.1
39.3
12.5
3
Including amounts to be allocated to impact areas.
9.4.7 Social and Cultural Effects
Several major groups of people live in and around Gillette:
ranchers, oil company employees, coal mining and related con-
struction employees, and businessmen. The managerial-level oil
company employees, some of them Gillette residents for 10 years,
are able to take part in local affairs while the other newcomers
largely are not.l
The social segregation has spatial results, particularly
noticeable in the predominance of mobile home living among field
workers and their families. One effect of a large increase in
coal-related population is likely to be yet more mobile home
neighborhoods spatially distinct from existing housing. Dissatis-
faction with mobile home living can only increase as a result of
the scenario analyzed here.2 Further, child neglect and abuse
appear to be a consequence of the migrant nature of construction
families around Gillette.
In public and private services, medical care is in particu-
larly short supply. Only eight doctors served Gillette in 1974,
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 49-52, 75.
2Ibid.
Richards, Bill. "Western Energy Rush Taking Toll Among
Boom Area Children." Washington Post. December 13, 1976, pp. 1, 4.
520
-------
TABLE 9-43:
PHYSICIAN NEEDS IN CAMPBELL
COUNTY, 1975-2000.
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Population
12,000
25,400
44,000
43,700
58,150
70,100
At Ratio of
One Doctor per
900 People
13
28
49
49
65
78
At Ratio of
One Doctor per
700 People
17
36
63
63
83
100
a ratio of about one physician to 900 people.1 Gillette has had
trouble attracting and keeping doctors, and as a consequence,
newcomers sometimes have a hard time even getting appointments.2
The need for new physicians (Table 9-43) will be as acute as the
need for additional water and sewage treatment but is less likely
to be ameliorated by local government policy. Physicians are
highly mobile and attracted by both large urban areas (and their
well-equipped hospitals) and pleasant outdoor amenities. For the
latter reason, Sheridan seems to do better than Gillette and
other similar-size towns at attracting physicians.3 Company-
supported health maintenance organizations or other group medical
By comparison, Sheridan has 17 doctors, a ratio of one per
675 people; the national average is about one per 660 people.
See Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
f\
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on
the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana
and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 77-78;
and U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of
Manor Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues
in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.:
Resources Program, 1974, pp. 36-44.
Northern Great Plains
University of Montana. Impact of Coal Development.
521
-------
practice may be necessary to meet medical needs in Campbell
County. However, the current trend toward family practice,
rather than medical specialization, will help small cities such
as Gillette.1
The social unrest among the various groups in Gillette will
exist until some stable pattern of social interaction takes
precedence over the constant conflict between oldtimers and new-
comers. 2 On a countywide scale, ranchers now dominate most local
positions of power. This control is most threatened by the
growth of urban Gillette, not by the mining and energy-related
activity. The urbanization issue in Wyoming and much of the
West is particularly contentious because of the desire to keep
the small-town atmosphere, which is declining.3
The quality of life in Gillette will not be judged favorably
by many residents during the course of this development. Water
supply problems, medical service shortages, and the lack of
street maintenance are only a few of Gillette's negative attri-
butes that largely can be expected to continue.4 On the positive
side, employment opportunities are abundant in Gillette, the
number and mix of retail goods and commercial services is expanding
steadily, and a number of high-quality recreational areas are
available within a few hours of the town.
The negative aspects of living in Gillette will not be
reduced or eliminated easily. Financial strain on the community
Loan forgiveness programs also appear to be an important
influence on rural and small-town location of physicians. See
Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access to
Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand
Corporation, 1976.
2
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on
the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana"
and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974.
University of Montana. Impact of Coal Development; and
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and
Cultural Aspects Work Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects
of Potential Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains,
Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources
Program, 1974, pp. 37-73.
4
Gillette, Wyoming, City of-Campbell County. Citizen Policy
Survey. Gillette, Wyo.: City of Gillette-Campbell County,
Department of Planning and Development, 1976.
522
-------
appears to be a major source of unfavorable opinion about life
there. In addition, the integration of new residents into social
groups and their participation in local affairs may be difficult
and constitutes an important consideration for individuals.
9.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
Some of the social effects of energy development will be
reflected in the political affairs and governmental admini-
stration of both Gillette and Campbell County. Immediate impacts
on governmental administration will occur as localities demand
expanded public services and as the sphere of public purpose is
extended into quasi-public areas such as the provision of private
housing and health care. Providing these services will require a
concerted planning, coordination, and implementation effort on
the part of all the parties-at-interest in the Gillette energy
development area. Further, the changing nature of the population
will strain the existing political balance, forcing accommodation
of new attitudes and values in local decisions.
Wyoming, through the state legislature, has implemented a
number of measures to reduce local fiscal impacts caused by
energy-related growth.-'- The Wyoming Community Development
Authority was created and authorized to provide loans to com-
munities and to provide additional financing capacity to tradi-
tional lending institutions for low-interest housing loans.
Severance tax revenues are used to back the Development Authority,
thus providing a better bond rating for municipal loans by
guaranteeing repayment. This Wyoming finance agency is unique
because it has the power to make loans to both the public and the
private sector to raise additional mortgage money. Gillette's
ultimate fiscal status, as well as the status of other commu-
nities in the area, will depend significantly on actions taken by
the Community Development Authority as it responds to various
assistance requests.
Legislative provisions of the Coal Tax for Impact Assistance
Act allow the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to disperse funds collected
from the state severance tax. Grants are made to communities
which have exhausted other reasonable means of financing sewer
and water systems, streets, and road projects. Similarly, as a
condition for issuing an industrial development permit, the
Wyoming Industrial Information and Siting Act of 1975 provides
For a detailed review of Wyoming's legislative package
dealing with the fiscal impacts of energy development, see Hayen,
Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socio-
economic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell
County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the
Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 57-74.
523
-------
authority to require an applicant to share in the financing of
needed public facilities and services, including schools. Again,
dispersion and enforcement actions by the state will be critical
in determining whether Gillette receives the kind of immediate
impact assistance required.
Energy development in the area will also lead to changes in
Gillette's relationship with Campbell County. Public services,
such as law enforcement, fire protection, and water supply/ will
require a concerted effort on the part of the city and Campbell
County to upgrade and maintain adequate levels of performance.
Although, as shown in the previous fiscal analysis, expenditures
and revenues will be fairly equal between 1975 and 1990, Gillette
will experience a deficit until 1983. This deficit will be at
its largest, $1.2 million, in 1980. When compared to Gillette's
1975 budget of about $2.5 million, these data indicate the city
will be faced with a deficit approximately 50 percent as large as
current revenues. If capital costs are included, the deficit in
1980 would be about $2.5 million instead of $1.2 million. A
factor mitigating this fiscal imbalance could be redistribution of
tax revenues from the county since its revenues are expected to
expand dramatically after 1980, nearly tripling Gillette's
expenditures by 1985. With redistribution to Gillette, the total
operating and capital expenditures required in this scenario
could easily be met after 1980, but such action requires uncommon
fiscal cooperation between both jurisdictions.
As noted earlier, the city and county cooperate on planning,
as personified by a city-county planner on the county payroll.1
Along with Wyoming's Joint Powers Act, which authorizes counties
to join with other local governments in financing facilities,
planning for future growth of Gillette appears to be reasonably
enabled. However, there is no means for requiring that the Joint
Powers Act be involved, leaving the vast majority of Gillette's
financing problems to the city. In addition, the city-county
planner1 s recommendations need not be, and often are not, approved by
the Board of County Commissioners. Another complication to
planning results from the fact that the industrial development
Information and Siting Act applies to facilities with construc-
tion costs greater than $50 million. Several of the currently
planned operations are valued slightly below that Iimit2 in what
During fiscal year 1975, the total county contribution was
$55,000 of the $150,000 budget of the Department of Planning and
Development. (Personal communication, Department of Planning
and Development, 1976.)
2
Gillette, Wyoming, City of. Statement of Planning Consid-
erations, February 13, 1976. Gillette, Wyo.: City of Gillette,
1976.
524
-------
is perhaps an attempt to avoid the effects of the law. These and
similar specific problems greatly limit Gillette's efforts to
plan adequately for future growth.1
Finally, energy development at Gillette will result in
changes for traditional organized interests and, over the long
term, will likely affect the power base that has prevailed in
Gillette-Campbell County relations. That is, the control of
county affairs by the ranchers will decline to allow represen-
tation of Gillette in county government affairs. Like many parts
of the West, town and county affairs have been kept distinct; in
fact, the population of the town is typically less than that of
the remainder of the county. The reverse situation now exists
with regard to the city of Gillette and Campbell County, but
political power in the county government still is held by the
ranchers. It is not clear at what point, in the course of future
development, the political balance will shift to meet the popu-
lation balance. Whenever it does, the changeover will be difficult
for long-time residents.2
9.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts
Of all locations in the western U.S., the Gillette, Wyoming
area is expected to be one of the areas most intensively impacted
by energy development. The scenario analyzed here indicates that
the county population will grow nearly six-fold, with a large
part of the growth taking place in or near Gillette. Housing
needs and school enrollments will expand similarly. Most new
housing units will be mobile homes, reflecting the reluctance of
builders, finance firms, and residents to expect anything but
short-term growth.
Approximately 3 percent of the land area of Campbell County
will be developed as a result of energy activity and population
A further example is the inability of Gillette to expand
in preferred directions because of land ownership by parties,
including energy developers, who are unwilling to give up their
land to urban expansion.
2
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974y and Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work
Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft.
Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974,
pp. 37-73.
525
-------
growth. Hunting and other recreational activities are likely to
increase, impacting a good deal of the remaining area.
Campbell County's economy has already been largely energy-
impacted, although primarily in oil and gas production. Through
1985, this concentration in energy should continue, slowly givxng
way to greater representation of service employment related to
population. The energy and service sectors will exceed agri-
culture in the county in terms of income and employment. A
gradual decline in household median income will occur over the
25-year period as a result of the change in industry mix and the
growth of relatively lower paying service jobs.
Municipal expenditures for capital facilities and operating
budgets are expected to be quite large, particularly in the
capital expenditures area where between $30 and $45 million will
be needed for each 5-year period. From 1980 to 1985, because of
the increasing tax base, the county will have a financial surplus,
whereas Gillette will show a deficit. Consequently, concerted
effort on the part of both jurisdictions will be needed to meet
the demands for public facilities and services.
Social problems resulting from, for example, the large
number of mobile homes and the lack of sufficient medical care,
will make life especially difficult for newcomers to Gillette.
The newcomer/oldtimer disparity is also manifested in political
control, which presently remains in the hands of ranchers county-
wide. Planning for the future growth of Gillette within the
county is thwarted by both these political considerations and
the growing power of energy developers in the county.
The major technological choices affecting social, political,
and economic impacts in Campbell County are essentially the
alternatives between exporting coal or converting it within the
local area. The greatest impacts will occur during construction
of a conversion facility, which requires 20 to 30 times the
laborforce for construction of a mine alone. Thus, construction
of mines would not produce so great a fluctuation in the work-
force as that which takes place in the scenario during the mid-
19801 s. Importantly, however, differences in operation of the
facilities are not as great as construction, and half the work-
force (and attendant population) would not be required if the
coal were shipped from the region. However, without the plants,
the tax base for Campbell County would significantly diminish.
Other technological choices would produce some change in
social impacts. For example, if plant efficiency decreases, due
to such factors as dry cooling towers, mining might require 5
percent more labor; if the plants were located at more distant
locations, some shifts in population location or commuting might
take place. If extensive export mining called for additions to
rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would be difficult
526
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to predict and would depend on the extent of new rail access to
the region and the degree to which rail lines would be monopo-
lized by coal cars.
Prediction of many of the social and economic impacts depends
largely on assumptions in the economic base model and, for example,
taxation rates. Improvements in knowledge of the current situ-
ation probably would not result in significant improvements in
the ability to predict impacts in this area. However, important
changes in quality of life and political impacts are more diffi-
cult to predict and can only be approached by means of local
data, such as surveys of attitudes and aspirations of people
within the region, or a greater understanding of the underlying
political structure of Gillette and Campbell County.
9.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
9.5.1 Introduction
The area considered in evaluating the Gillette scenario
extends from the Bighorn Mountains eastward to the Black Hills,
and northward from the North Platte River to the Montana border.
Most of this land is rolling prairie of 4,600 to 5,000 feet in
elevation, relieved by stream valleys, and buttes and ridges
rising a few hundred feet from the surrounding landscape. The
climate is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in tempera-
ture which, together with soil moisture and topography, are the
major factors affecting the distribution of plant and animal
species.1
9.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
There are two major biological communities present in the
prairie portion of the study area: sagebrush-grasslands and
ponderosa pine woodlands. The sagebrush-grasslands are of several
subtypes, a shrubby salt-tolerant greasewood type along stream-
courses, and silver sage or big sage dominant in well-drained
upland sites. Most of the area is big sage grassland used for
grazing cattle. There are a few pure grassland areas that are
largely devoid of shrubs.
Antelope and sage grouse, two species which depend heavily
on large expanses of sage, are exceptionally abundant in the
Gillette area. Wyoming also has almost half the world1 s population of
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General
Technical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agri-
culture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experi-
ment Station, 1974, p. 4.
527
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TABLE 9-44:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, GILLETTE SCENARIO
Community Type
Characteristic
Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Sagebrush
Grassland
Big sagebrush
Silver sagebrush
Greasewood
Gardner saltbush
Alkali sacaton
Bluegrass
Needle and thread
grass
Western wheat grass
Antelope
Coyote
Richardson's
ground squirrel
Black tailed
prairie dog
Western harvest
mouse
Sage grouse
Golden eagle
Ponderosa pine
Woodlands
Ponderosa pine
Rocky Mountain
juniper
Skunkbush sumac
Western snowberry
Stoneyhills muhly
Green needlegrass
Sideoats grama
Mule deer
Elk
Porcupine
Wild turkey
Bushytail
woodrat
Least chipmunk
Bobcat
Riparian
Plains cottonwood
Sandbar willow
Boxelder
Wild rose
Rubber rabbitbrush
Wildrye
Wheatgrass
Needlegrass
Mule deer
Whitetail deer
Red fox
Meadowvole
Mallard
Western kingbird
Skunk
Bobcat
Raccoon
pronghorn antelope, and most of these inhabit the study area.
Other typical animal species are shown in Table 9-44. Rare or
endangered species include the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, black-
footed ferret, Northern kit foxy and possibly the other species
threatened with extinction also occur in or migrate through the area.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Effects of Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains: A Review of Major
Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development.
Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975,
p. 46.
528
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Ponderosa pine woodlands are found largely in rough topography
to the north of Gillette and in a small range of hills to the
southeast. The widely spaced trees provide a variety of food
plants, cover, and nesting sites for a distinctive bird fauna and
a variety of small mammals (Table 9-44).1
A small amount of riparian habitat is found in the prairie
portion of the scenario area, principally along the Powder,
Little Powder, Belle Fourche, and Cheyenne Rivers, and Black
Thunder and Lightning Creeks. Composition of this vegetation
type ranges from narrow rows of cottonwoods with a shrubby under-
story to a relatively we11-developed floodplain forest. White-
tail deer and a number of other mammals are found principally in
these bottom woodlands.
Aquatic habitat is limited in extent in the prairie portion
of the scenario area. Flows in the area's major streams—North
Platte, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and Powder Rivers—-vary consid-
erably from both natural runoff and irrigation withdrawals.
Warm-water fish species predominate, except below the discharges
of several reservoirs in the North Platte. Fish habitat in the
Powder, Belle Fourche, and Cheyenne Rivers is limited because
extreme summer flow reductions leave only a series of deep holes
and pools with little water flowing between them. Species
tolerant of these conditions include burbot, carp, white sucker,
and fathead minnow. Stock ponds and small irrigation reservoirs
usually support largemouth bass and panfish, while larger reser-
voirs support both warm- and cold-water species. Mountain lakes
and streams in the Black Hills and Bighorn Mountains are stocked
with trout.
9.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
Between 1975 and 1980, one export coal mine and a natural
gas field with processing facilities will be developed. During
this period, the population of Campbell County will increase by
85 percent, and the population of Gillette will more than double.
A rail spur from the Gillette area to Douglas supports export
mines and gathering lines, and a trunk line supports the gas
wells. Most of the habitat removed directly by these activities
will be sagebrush grassland (Table 9-45).
Most of the area' s birds of prey hunt over both communities;
species include Swainson's redtail, and ferruginous hawks,
golden eagle, marsh hawk, prairie falcon, kestrel, and great
horned owl. Other ubiquitous predators include the coyote, bob-
cat, and red fox.
529
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TABLE 9-45: LAND CONSUMPTION: GILLETTE SCENARIO
(acres) *
Community
Type
Grassland
Shrub
grassland
Pine
Woodland
Riparian
Woodland
Total
Permanent Loss
1975-1980
930
6,430
550
130
8,040
1980-1990
400
5,610
230
60
6,300
1990-2000
590
2,940
150
60
3,740
Mining
1977-2000
1,870
21,530
910
300
24,610
Between 1980 and 1990, the second export coal mine and slurry
pipeline will be completed, as will the Lurgi gasification facil-
ity, a steam electric power plant, and a uranium mill and a 750-
kilovolt transmission corridor. As a consequence of the construction
and operation of these facilities, the area's population will
continue to increase, rising 43 percent from 1980; Gillette will
grow by another 39 percent. Water will be withdrawn from the
North Platte near Douglas (25 cubic feet per second [cfs] ) and
the Yellowstone near Miles City (68 cfs) to supply the needs of
industrial development.
Between 1990 and 2000, the mine-mouth Synthane high-Btu
(British thermal unit) gas and Synthoil liquefaction facilities
will be constructed. Additional land will be used for water and
product pipeline rights-of-way. Area population will increase by
an additional 40 percent by 1995. The population of Gillette
will be four times its 1975 level. Cumulative withdrawals of
industrial water supplies rise to 82 cfs from the Yellowstone
and 52 cfs from the North Platte.
9.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
Initially, alterations in vegetation, the use of land and
water resources, and the activities of increased numbers of
people will act as the major stresses to ecosystems in the
Gillette area. Current forage production estimates on - private
and federal lands indicate a 4- to 6-acre natural forage
530
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requirement=to support one cow with calf for a month.1 Private
lands are now overstocked and 3-4 acres are used to feed one cow
with calf per month. The loss or preemptive use of 10,740 acres
of vegetation in the first 5 years will remove an amount of
forage equivalent to that consumed in a year by 120-190 cows with
calves or 600-950 sheep.2
The expected impact during the first 5 years is relatively
minor in this scenario, primarily due to the limited extent of
development. The amount of habitat removed by constructing the
rail line, opening the first export mine, and developing the gas
field with its system of gathering and transmission pipelines
will be negligible compared to the total amount of sagebrush-
grassland habitat available. Smaller vertebrates will be lost
during construction, but many will tend to re-colonize the pipe-
line rights-of-way after reseeding.3 Although local impacts in
affected areas will eliminate some species,4 the net impact on
areawide populations will be negligible.
The introduction of the rail line, which will carry seven
unit trains daily, will interfere with the movements of larger,
wide-ranging species such as deer and antelope. Seasonal move-
ments between areas of winter browse and summer feeding and
watering will be disrupted. The rail line also bisects two large
winter concentration areas. If prevented from movement between
winter and summer areas, antelope could decline in abundance,
particularly during periods of drought-induced stress. This area
Livestock carrying capacities are expressed as Animal Unit
Months (ATM1s), An animal unit is one cow and her calf or five
sheep. An AUM refers to the amount of forage required to support
one animal unit for 1 month. AUM's do not refer to wildlife.
2
Assuming a range of 3.5-6 acres of forage for one Animal
Unit Month for grasslands and sagebrush grasslands, and 3.5-4.0
acres for pine and riparian lands.
Species re-colonizing rights-of-way may not be the same as
those initially found there, owing to change in vegetation cover.
4
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming. 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974, p. IV-115.
531
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is also subject to extensive habitat fragmentation! by energy _
development during subsequent years, which could accentuate this
population trend.
Livestock production on either side of the railroad right-
of-way will also require that it be fenced on both sides. These
fences will prevent crossing of the rail line by antelope and
will cause occasional, temporary entrapment of deer and antelope
within the right-of-way.2
B. Impacts to 1990
The construction of the large Lurgi and power generation
plants will remove additional areas of sagebrush-grassland
habitat, together with small amounts of stream-side vegetation
(Table 9-45) .
Though only 2,480 acres are annually irrigated in Campbell
County, 41,370 acres are irrigated annually along the North
Platte in Converse County. The major irrigated crop along the
North Platte is hay. Current annual demands for irrigation water
from the North Platte are about 60 cfs, and demand exceeds
supply. By 1990, the withdrawal of 25 cfs for energy development
will locally exacerbate this problem.
Some 7,630 acres of grazing lands will be lost to facilities
siting during the second scenario decade. Based on current
stocking rates, forage equivalent to that consumed by 90-150 cows
with calves or 450-750 sheep in a year will be lost from produc-
tion. This total includes the temporary losses of livestock
forage from clearing pipeline and transmission line rights-of-
way. While the proportion of the total extent of habitat lost to
facility siting is negligible, the addition of new sites will
tend to fragment habitat used by the widest ranging of the area's
wildlife: the pronghorn antelope. Fragmentation will increase
Habitat fragmentation occurs when the continuous mosaic of
habitat types available to area wildlife becomes a discontinuous
patchwork because of artificial barriers such as fences, irriga-
tion, canals, rail lines, or large barren expanses of mined areas.
Wildlife species travel among different habitats daily, and often
seasonally, to fulfill food, water, and cover requirements.
Barriers which fragment habitat stress wildlife because they limit
or prohibit access to these important needs.
2
There has been some question about the impact of fencing
the railroad right-of-way. Though deer can either jump or crawl
through/under fences, antelope crawl under them and only rarely
attempt to jump.
532
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in the subsequent decade; together with the impact of thfe railroad,
this splitting of the species' range could result in changes in
seasonal movements and distributional
Increased traffic on the highway parallel to the rail line
will constitute a wildlife hazard. The impact of highway kills
on areawide populations of smaller wildlife will be negligibly
small, but the increased amount of carrion available may, in
turn, attract birds of prey and some mammalian predators, which
will be vulnerable to road-kill. Because of their low numbers,
the threat to bald eagles, which feed on both carrion and live
prey, warrants concern, although areawide populations of most
other predators are high enough to absorb occasional deaths with-
out decline.
It has been relatively common practice for large energy
developers to purchase irrigation water rights as a stop-gap
measure to ensure a water supply.2 if this happened in this
hypothetical scenario, conversion of these rights to industrial
use could eliminate a portion of the wildlife habitat provided by
irrigated crop and pasture land. Although restricted in extent,
this habitat type may be important to a number of wildlife
species, including ring-necked pheasant and waterfowl as well as
a variety of small mammals and birds.
A potential physical hazard is presented by the extra-high
voltage power transmission line. Migrating birds may occasionally
fly into the wires or suffer electrocution because of corona
discharge. However, appropriate design can reduce the problem of
electrocuting large birds perching on the towers. The corona
discharge from the line could cause wildlife and livestock to
avoid the general area.3
Current fencing practices on public lands in the study area
are antelope-oriented; that is, bottom fence strands are 14-16
inches above the ground and Bureau of Land Management designed
"antelope guards" are provided. Fencing on private lands does
not usually incorporate such designs and has likely produced
some changes in distribution already.
o
Industry has already purchased some 12,000 acres of irrigated
cropland to obtain the associated water rights. However, as
described in Part III, it is not clear that agricultural water
rights can be converted for use in energy development.
3
Research under the sponsorship of the Electric Power
Research Institute is intended to reveal the extent to which
large power lines can influence wildlife.
533
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Localized adverse impacts may arise from dewatering the
surface mines and from contamination of groundwater percolating
through these mines after backfilling and revegetation. Mine
dewatering may affect the water table as much as 2 miles away.l
Springs or surface discharges within that distance might become
unpalatable to wildlife from contamination by leached salts after
flow is resumed.
Increases in the population of the Gillette area over the
second decade will induce continuing changes in land-use pat-
terns. The effect of town growth on wildlife populations is
irregular and is related to topography and the movements of
people, but it probably extends no farther than 20 miles from the
outskirts of town into the plains. For most species, a smaller
radius (perhaps 10 miles) would include most concentrated day-to-
day human activity, the presence of domestic dogs and cats,
traffic, noise, and suburban habitat fragmentation that would
noticeably reduce the abundance and diversity of terrestrial
wildlife. If, however, growth is scattered into small subdivisions
along the north-south axis of the coal field, the combined effect
on wildlife habitat of both industrial and residential land use
would be more extensive than around a single town. This pattern
could result if Gillette is unable to finance sewage treatment
facilities meeting Environmental Protection Agency standards,
thus favoring scattered small developments.
Although the discharge of municipal sewage into area streams
is to be controlled during this decade, Gillette will probably
continue current discharge practices until about 1985 (Section
9.3). Such discharge could contain harmful amounts of nutrients
and perhaps some organic material. Gillette presently discharges
its sewage effluent into Donkey Creek, an intermittent stream.
Assuming that this practice continues, the added flow could help
stabilize the aquatic ecosystem. However, nutrients carried by
the wastewater could cause algal blooms in pool habitats, lowering
dissolved oxygen levels and causing odor problems as they decay.
Further, the Belle Fourche River, about 23 miles downstream,
might receive nutrient-laden water from Donkey Creek, although
the effects would be significantly diminished.
Larger concentrations of people may bring increases in
hunting and poaching, primarily of deer, elk, antelope, and sage
grouse. Poaching typically reaches high levels around large
U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Final
Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Plan of Mining and
Reclamation, Belle Ayr South Mine, Amax Coal Company, Coal Lease
W-0317682, Campbell County, Wyoming, 2 vols. Reston, Va.: Geo-
logical Survey, 1975.
534
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construction projects and will have begun to occur in the previous
scenario decade. Illegal kills of non-game animals are likely to
follow a similar pattern. Birds of prey are usually prime tar-
gets, especially those which frequent roadsides such as bald and
golden eagles and Swainson's hawks. The peregrine falcon,
occasionally seen in the area, and the prairie falcon, a resi-
dent, can probably tolerate less of this kind of stress than the
more abundant species. Varmint hunting is popular in the area,
concentrating mainly on fox, coyote, and bobcat. A major increase in
trapping and hunting, due to the increased human population and
rising fur prices, could reduce the bobcat and possibly the fox
populations. Since coyotes typically do not decline unless
concerted efforts are made against them, their numbers could
increase slightly as a result of lowered competition with other
predators.
Patterns of recreational land use could shift if private
lands are closed to hunting and other recreational uses. This
trend is already in evidence around Gillette. Ranchers who close
their land will probably keep them closed even after the first
population influx has passed. Such actions could reduce illegal
game kill on large areas of sage-grassland. This trend would
also force outdoor recreationists to almost exclusive use of the
area's public lands, particularly the Black Hills and Bighorn
National Forests,!
Wildlife populations in the Black Hills will probably be
affected more severely than those in the Bighorn Mountains due to
the proximity of Gillette. While large parts of the Bighorn
National Forest are administered as primitive areas and proposed
for wilderness classification, the Black Hills National Forest is
so well supplied with roads that the Forest Service plans to
close some of them to reduce traffic in potential "backcountry"
areas.2 Further, about 20 percent of the area within the Black
Hills National Forest boundary is not owned by the federal
government. This land consists of scattered, small, privately
Lands to the northwest and southeast of Gillette that are
under the administration of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
and Basin National Grasslands or are administered by the Forest
Service will be affected to a smaller degree. The BLM lands are
important deer and elk habitat; unrestricted use of off-road
vehicles in these areas could be particularly harmful to elk,
which occupy very restricted ranges.
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Region. Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber
Management Plan for the Black Hills National Forest. Denver,
Colo.: Forest Service, 1976.
535
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held parcels whose subdivision could affect many kinds of wildlife
through habitat fragmentation.1 The net effect of developing
recreational forested lands would be to protect, to some extent,
animals typical of the we 11-developed sagebrush grasslands (where
energy facilities occur) at the expense of forest ecosystems.
C. Impacts to 2000
The final scenario decade will see the initiation and com-
pletion of two more large construction projects. At present
average stocking rates, the forage produced on the 3,740 acres
of vegetation destroyed by plant siting would be equivalent to
that consumed in a year by 50-90 cows with calves, or 250-450
sheep. Forage losses caused by pipeline construction are temporary.
Recreational and land-use changes along with illegal harvest
may adversely affect the two .small elk herds in the area (50 in
the Rochelle Hills and a larger herd, about 200, along the
badlands of the Little Powder River). These herds are too small
to sustain continued loss of breeding animals of both sexes.
Another factor affecting the vulnerability of elk is the large
proportion of their range that lies on public lands. The area's
other game species are likely to be protected somewhat by the
closure of private lands.
The removal of water from the North Platte River (Section
9.3) will equal 30 percent of historical low flow by 2000.
Periodic stress in the aquatic community is likely to occur, at
least in years of low flow. Lowered stream flows affect aquatic
ecosystems by changing fish distributions and behavior, reducing
the productivity of plants and invertebrates, reducing the total
bottom area, changing overall water quality, and lowering the
rat£ of food transfer from riffle to pool areas.
Flows in the North Platte are affected by reservoir opera-
tion. Reduced flow effects will be greatest in periods of
lowest river discharge, principally in winter. At other times,
flow is great enough so that water withdrawal in the anticipated
amounts will be only a very small portion of the total discharge.
Thus, spring or fall fish spawning is not likely to be influenced.
In the drier months, increasing stress to game might conceivably
bring about species shifts favoring non-game fishes.^
Particularly vulnerable are whitetail deer, which winter
at lower elevations, largely outside the forest boundary.
2
These non-game fishes have more flexible habitat require-
ments and include carp, white sucker, river carpsucker, buffaloes,
and bullheads. Non-game species which may be adversely affected
include the stonecat and shorthead redhorse.
536
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Dewatering will also reduce the extent of habitat available
to wintering waterfowl. Large numbers of mallards, green-winged
teal, golden-eye, and mergansers, together with some geese,
winter on the North Platte below Glenrock.
Both airborne and waterborne industrial wastes can introduce
hazardous substances into the environment. Under most condi-
tions, combined plant emissions should not add significantly to
ground-level pollutant concentrations. Consequently, acute air
pollution damage to vegetation or animals does not seem likely.
Since the total land area exposed to airborne pollutants does
reflect the number of emission sources, low-level exposure to
sulfur dioxide will cover a broad area downwind of the line of
developments. Peak ground-level concentrations will be
highest—323 milligrams per cubic meter (0.13 parts per mil-
lion) 3-hour average—downwind of the plant. These concen-
trations are below those generally thought to cause acute
vegetation damage (see Section 12.5).
Some evidence suggests that fine particulate matter origi-
nating in the Great Plains is reduced over the Black Hills by the
scavenging effects of precipitation and by the ability of vege-
tation to act as a filter.1 The latter mechanism may account for
as much as a two-fold reduction in particulate concentration.
Thus, much of the sulfates and sulfites emitted as fine particu-
lates or forming subsequently in the atmosphere may be deposited
in the Black Hills. This phenomenon would carry with it the
possibility of slight soil acidification, but total emissions are
far below levels which have been associated with locally acid
rainfall or chronic damage to plants. The tendency toward soil
acidification will probably also be small. Other influences in
the same time frame may have a greater affect on overall vegeta-
tion productivity and influence the ecosystems at large. Grazing
and drought will remain the principal factors limiting the
productivity of prairie vegetation, while the intent of the
Forest Service to manage the Black Hills National Forest inten-
sively as a system of small, even-aged stands^ override the
influence of long-distance transport of air pollutants from
Gillette as an overall habitat influence.
Davis, B.L., et al. The Black Hills as a "Green Area"
Sink for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report, prepared
for the USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,
Report 75-8. Rapid City, S.D.: South Dakota School of Mines and
Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975.
2
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Region. Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber
Management Plan for the Black Hills National Forest. Denver,
Colo.: Forest Service, 1976.
537
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TABLE 9-46:
POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
FOREGONE: GILLETTE SCENARIO
Acres Lost
1975-1980 8,040
1980-1990a 6,300
1990-2000 3,740
Post-2000b 3,980
Cumulative
Total 22,060
1974 Inventory, c
Campbell County
Loss as Percent of
1974 Inventory
Animal Equivalent
(Cows with Calf)
90-150
70-120
40-70
40-70
240-410
91,893
0.3-0.4
Sheep
130-200
100-170
60-100
60-100
350-570
126,890d
0.3-0.5
Includes transmission line rights-of-way.
Acreage represents lands not fully reclaimed in any
given year with all mines having been operating
longer than 5 years.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report,
Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1976.
f\
Includes lambs.
D. Impacts After 2000
The cumulative impact of facilities siting, including
mining, on potential livestock production has been summarized in
Table 9-46.1 The distribution of livestock among sheep and
cattle is according to the ratio of inventories recorded in the
Several simplifying assumptions have been made in preparing
this table, which may bias it toward conservatism. Among these
are: including transmission and pipelines rights-of-way as
losses, even though grazing values will be at least partially
restored; assuming that no grazing takes place on strip mine
spoils until 5 years after mining; and assuming that all lands to
be disturbed would otherwise be grazed.
538
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1974 Census of Agriculture. However, even with conservative
assumptions, it is apparent that the cumulative forage production
lost is equivalent to the yearly requirements of less than 1 per-
cent of the 1974 livestock inventory.
Mined-out areas can be re-contoured and a plant cover of
some kind restored. However, because of the difficulty of
replanting shrubs in their original density, only the 1,870 acres
of pure grassland of the 24,670 acres affected by mining will be
returned to a state structurally similar to its original condi-
tion. In some instances, obtaining adequate quantities of plant
materials may limit reclamation efforts.! Assuming that recla-
mation focuses only on forage production, 22,795 shrubby or
wooded acres will be effectively lost and replaced by a grassforb
mixture. This total will consist of 17,880 acres of sagebrush
grassland, 3,700 acres of silver sage, 915 acres of pine wood-
land, 578 acres of greasewood, and 300 acres of riparian wood^-
land.
Experimental work in the Gillette area has shown that a
cover of range grasses can be established on regraded mine
spoils. Opinions differ on the length of time required to estab-
lish self-sustaining vegetation, but this technology assessment
assumes that 5 years will be sufficient, after which there will
be no further manipulation of the revegetated area. However,
since spoil material lacks the structure of soils developed over
longer periods, moisture in the revegetated mine spoils will
probably not be as good (nor natural nutrient cycles as effec-
tive) as those in native soils. Further, since soil moisture
availability and fertility are usually the major factors limiting
plant growth on spoils from'this part of the Fort Union Forma-
tion, revegetated areas may have less dense plant cover, lower
productivity, and exhibit less stability in the face of such
stresses as grazing or the region's periodic droughts than adja-
cent undisturbed vegetation. In consequence, the net effect of
mining will probably be to convert roughly 23,000 acres of
shrubland to a less productive, probably less stable early-
successional type of grassland.2
The ecological impact of reclamation changes can be quali-
tatively described, based on successional patterns observed on
Hassel, M.J. "The Surface Environment and Mining (SEAM)
Program." Western Wildlands, Vol. 1 (No. 4, 1974), p. 35.
o
A more detailed discussion of surface mine reclamation is
presented in Chapter 12.
539
-------
abandoned farmland in the area.l Table 9-47 is a classification
of area animals according to their preference for different vege-
tation types. (Figure 9-9 shows the expected changes in area
animal populations on lands reclaimed with varying success.)
This diagram shows that, during the 1980-2000 time period, most
of the mined lands will be in an early stage of succession
(modified by early introduction of perennial grasses). For
example, ground squirrels, pocket gophers, and kangaroo rats will
be abundant if spoil conditions permit burrowing, although on
some mines, spoil textures may limit their occurrence. However,
total numbers or biomass of these small vertebrates may be less
than the original population, especially if grazing is permitted
or plant cover is low. In contrast, those Group 1 species that
depend on mature sage stands will be found in very small numbers.
The resulting local change in prey species composition will
probably not cause a change in the relative abundance of dif-
ferent predators. Potential exceptions are the golden and win-
tering bald eagles and the larger buzzard hawks, which prey
heavily and sometimes almost exclusively on rabbits. The over-
all impact of hunting, trapping, and illegal shooting will
probably have a more important effect on predator numbers than
mining.
9.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts
The sources and expected period of major ecological impacts
are shown in Table 9-48. Major impacts of the Gillette scenario
are ranked according to the total area and number of species
which they affect in Table 9-49.
Class A impacts are considered most severe because they
affect the largest number of species over an extensive area. In
this scenario, habitat fragmentation takes place in a large area
important to antelope. Poaching and illegal shooting affect
both game and non-game species and are often;widespread.
Another direct impact of the scenario is the low-flow reduc-
tion in the North Platte River from cumulative water withdrawals.
Although uncertain due to lack of knowledge about the river
channel in the scenario area, some detectable changes in the
productivity of the ecosystem may result, at least during years
of below-average flow.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed'
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
Management, 1974; and Lang, R.L. "Vegetation Changes Between 1943
and 1965 on the Shortgrass Plains of Wyoming." Journal of Range
Management, Vol. 26 (November 1973), pp. 407-4091~
540
-------
TABLE 9-47:
HABITAT GROUPS OF SELECTED ANIMALS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STUDY AREA
Group I
Animals heavily dependent on sage-
brush for food or cover or nesting
sites or combination thereof and/
or other upland shrubs such as
greasewood, saltbush, and rabbit-'
brus.h, especially for winter feed
Pronghorn Antelope
Mule Deer
White-tailed Deer
Sagebrush vole
De,er Mouse
Least Chipmunk
White-tailed Prairie Dog
White-tailed Jackrabbit
Group II
Animals feeding heavily on seeds
and/or foliage or roots of weedy
species of forb or annual grasses
and/or nesting on ground in open
grasslands
Thirteen-lined Ground
Squirrel
Richardson's Ground
Squirrel
Northern Pocket Gopher
Wyoming Pocket Gopher
Ord's Kangaroo Rat
Western Harvest Mouse
Group III
Animals nesting on the ground in
open grasslands and/or feeding
primarily on perennial grass
seeds or foliage
Black-tailed Prairie Dog
Prairie Vole
Chestnut Collared
Longspur
McCown's Longspur
Group IV
Animals that depend primarily on
the riparian (stream-side) plant
associations and/or marshy or
moist meadow areas around lakes
or ponds to directly or indir-
ectly provide food or cover or
nesting or breeding sites
Raccoon
Mink
Striped Skunk
Beaver
Muskrat
Long-tailed vole
Black-billed Magpie
Red-shafted Flicker
Group .V
Animals requiring the open pine
timber, juniper breaks or rough,
rocky topography for cover or
food or nesting sites
Elk
Bushytail Wood Rat
Porcupine
Pygmy Nuthatch
Cassins Kingbird
White-winged Junco
Pinon Jay
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land manage-
ment, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Pro-
posed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River
Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land
.Management, 1974.
541
-------
BEST VALUE |
5 PRESENT VALUE
TOTAL LOSS ,—j-.—
Curve
Number
LEGEND
Animal Group (list of animals in each group is
found in Table 9-47)
1
2
3
4
5
Group 1
Group 2 (projected rehabilitation unsuccessful)
Group 3 (projected rehabilitation successful)
Group 4 (projected rehabilitation unsuccessful)
Group 5 (projected rehabilitation successful)
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement
for the Proposed Development of. Coal Resources in the
Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols.
Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Management, 1974.
FIGURE 9-9:
EXPECTED HABITAT VALUE TRENDS FOR PARTICULAR
ANIMAL GROUPS AFTER DISTURBANCE WITH ATTEMPTED
REHABILITATION TO PERENNIAL GRASSLANDS
542
-------
TABLE 9-48:
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS
AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Impact
Category
Class A
Class B
Class C
Uncertain
1975-1980
Habitat
fragmentation
Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)
1980-1990
Habitat
fragment at ion
Poaching and
illegal
shooting
Stream flow
reductions
Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)
Irrigated
agricultural
losses
1990-2000
Habit
fragmentation
Poaching and
illegal
shooting
Stream flow
reductions
Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)
Sulfate fallout
in Black Hills
Irrigated
agricultural
losses
543
-------
TABLE 9-49: FORECAST OF STATUS OF SELECTED SPECIES*
Gmm* Op*ei«B
Mule and WhitetaiZ Deer
Antelope
Elfc
Sage Grouse
Turkey (Black Hill.)
PheatAnt
Waterfowl
Mourning Dove
Rare or Endangered' .Species*
National Level
Peregrine Falcon
Bald Eagle
1980
Moderate decline of
praire populations
from heavy poaching
habitat and redistri-
bution.
Moderate decline owing
to habitat fragments -
movement patterns,
heavy poaching pressure.
.
decline of Fortifica-
tion and Rochelle
populations from
poaching.
Slight decline in
numbers from increased
shooting, loss of
habitat.
Little change
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Probable loss of
.wintering indivi-
duals from illegal
shooting.
Probable loss of
wintering indivi-
duals from auto col-
lision, illegal shooting
1990
Some decline in Black Hills deer popula-
tions, especially in whitetails/ from
fragmentation* of winter range.
Continued low population levels, rela-
tive to 1975, compensated to a degree
by closure of private lands to.
hunting.
Accelerated decline because of added
stress of harrassment by recreational
vehicles.
• Possible compensation for increased
legal and illegal harvest owing to
private land closure.
Possible decline in numbers from
illegal shooting, frequently on pri-
vate lands dispersed throughout the
forest.
Moderate to (potentially) serious
decline because of downtrend in
irrigated agriculture.
Possible slight decline region-
wide because of reduction in
irrigated agriculture.
Little change.
Continued low numbers.
Increased risk to nesting birds on
North Platte River from harrassment
or illegal shooting. Continued
• losses of wintering birds*
2000
Probable stabilization or increase of
Black Hills needs, owing to the implemen-
tation of even-aged stand management.
Partial recovery of prairie populations
following termingation Of construction
activity and reduction of poaching pressure.
Partial recovery if poaching pressure goes
do*-*n. Trend toward willingness to- jump
fences could conceivably restore wider
movement patterns by this time, allevi-
ating effects of habitat fragmentation.
Probably extirpation of Rochelle Hills
population. Severe reduction or loss of
Fortification Creek herd.
Probable stabilization oving to implemen-
tation of even-aged stand management.
Continued downtrend.
dewatering in the North Platte River*
Little change.
Continued low number*.
Possible loss of a one nesting pairs on the
Horth Platte owing to disturbance; continued
losses of wintering birds.
-------
TABLE 9-49: (Continued)
Ul
.&.
L71
> R»r* or Endangered Specie*
National Level
Black Footed Ferret
geological Indicators
Early Succession
: (reclamation)
' Richardson'* Ground
i Squirrelb
Western Harvest Mouse, c
Horned Lark
Mature Sage Grasslands
(habitat loss)
Cottontail, Jackrabbit,
Lark Sparrow, Sagebrush
Lizard
Streamflow in North Platta
River
Rainbow. Brown Trout
Stonecat •
Carp, Unite Sucker,
Buffalo
1980
Little change {it
. present) unless habi-
tat is disturbed
directly.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
1990
Potential decline through overshooting
prairie dog towns, harraasment.
Potential local increase on reclaimed
mines and where spoil texture permits
burrowing .
Potential local increases in response
to availability of food on reclaimed
mined lands.
Slight decline in local, populations
due to habitat loss.
Possible decline in numbers due to
dewatering, possibly also from
increased fishing pressure. Can be
remedied by stocking.
Decline in nuirtbers because of
dewatering
Slight tendency to increase as a
result of dewatering.
2000
Continued potential for decline through
disturbance of praire dog towns.
Potentially increased presence on ained
lands, especially if older spoils develop a
texture favorable for burrowing.
Potentially continued response to mine
reclamation.
Continued slight decline.
Continued decline, reflecting further
dewatering. Perhaps less effectively
remedied by stocking.
possibly sharp decline, from further dewat-
ering; potential for loss of the species in
some areas of the river.
Possibly marked increase in importance,
reflecting habitat changes brought on by
further dewatering.
"This table 1* Intended to shov population trends from energy development alone; it assumes that all other factors remain constant.
Endangered species identified for Wyoming include Shovelnose sturgeon, Goldeye, silvery Minnow, sturgeon Chub, w. Smooth Creen Snake, and Northern
Kit (Swift) Fox. The scenario possesses little changes for these, except the Northern Kit Fox which may experience possible loss of individuals
through predator, trapping, and hunting.
"Although these species favor early successional vegetation, and may be locally dominant or characteristic on reclaimed nines, their actual density
may be quite low if the vegetation is of low productivity.
-------
Finally, the greatest potential impact arises from the
indirect land use pressures of a large increase in population.
Especially significant is game poaching during construction
peaks, which may decimate the area's small elk herds.
Suburban habitat fragmentation, concentrated human activity,
and similar localized impacts associated with growth of an urban
center such as Gillette are ranked as Class B impacts. Though
they may affect several species, the geographic area in which the
impacts are realized is relatively small.
Because the geographic area affected by facilities siting is
small compared to the total amount of similar available habitat,
grazing losses are given the most minor of rankings: Class C.
The cumulative impact of facility siting on habitat quantity
and quality will principally reflect the success of reclamation
and the degree to which habitat is fragmented and the movements
of wide-ranging species are disrupted by the new rail line and
its parallel high-traffic highway. Antelope will probably be
most sensitive to this impact because of the large range they
normally occupy.
9.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE
The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop-
ments in the Gillette area will be the production and shipment of
50 million tons of coal per year, 100,000 barrels of synthetic
oil, 750 million standard cubic feet per day of synthetic and
natural gas, and 3,000 megawatts of electricity. In addition,
1,000 metric tons per year of yellowcake will be produced for
enrichment for nuclear reactors. Locally, the benefits include
increased income to the city and county, increased retail and
wholesale trade, and secondary economic development. Campbell
County will also receive increased tax revenues as will the
state of Wyoming.
Social, economic, and political changes in Campbell County
will stem primarily from a six-fold growth in population. Housing
demands will be largely met by mobile homes. Nearly 10 percent
of Campbell County will undergo changes in land use adding
significantly to the assessed valuation. However, the tax base
for Gillette will not increase enough to meet new demands placed
on public services, and the political strength within the county
may shift from ranchers and businessmen to energy developers.
Technological variables affecting these impacts are primar-
ily alternatives between exporting coal or converting it within
Campbell County. Construction of conversion facilities requires
20 to 30 times the labor of a mine alone and would not produce
great fluctuations in the workforce. However, if the coal were
shipped from the region, the tax base for Campbell County would
546
-------
significantly diminish. If export mining resulted in increased
rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would depend on
the extent of new rail access to the region and the degree to
which rail lines would be monopolized by coal cars.
Both the Synthoil plant and natural gas production facilities
emit hydrocarbons (HC) in amounts that will result in ambient air
concentrations in excess of both Wyoming and federal standards.
In addition, current levels of HC in the city of Gillette are
estimated to be in excess of standards, and any addition from the
plants and additional urban growth will exacerbate this problem.
If the Black Hills National Forest to the east is reclassified as
a Class I area, significant deterioration increments for sulfur
dioxide will be exceeded. In addition, the plumes of the plants
will be visible from many locations in the area, and average
long-range visibility will be reduced by up to 8 percent when all
the facilities are operating. Under adverse meteorological
conditions, visibility will be reduced an even greater extent.
Several potential air controls could ameliorate the extent
of the air impacts, although the HC problem cannot be solved
short of enclosing the entire plant or making major improvements
in valve and flange design. Either a reduction in plant size,
improved scrubbers, or coal washing to remove inorganic sulfur
would reduce sulfur emissions to minimize potential conflicts
with significant deterioration standards. Increasing precipi-
tator efficiency to 99.5 percent would result in less reduction
in visibility and reduce emissions of most trace elements by 50
percent;
Water consumption of about 102,500 acre-feet per year for
the energy facilities will significantly affect the streams used
as water sources, especially the North Platte River where the low
flow will be reduced by about 30 percent. This reduction in flow
would also increase in-stream salinity and affect downstream
agricultural users as well as the quality of water for aquatic
life. Groundwater quality may also be affected by leaching
chemicals from/ settling ponds and by the erosion of storage
ponds. Surface-water quality in the immediate vicinity of
Gillette is also threatened by inadequate sewage treatment faci-
lities.
Technological changes could significantly affect the con-
sumptive use of water. One small power plant in the Gillette
region is currently using dry cooling, and the potential exists
for using dry cooling towers or wet-dry cooling for the hypo-
thetical conversion facilities in this scenario. This would
significantly affect the potential conflicts that might arise
from using the waters of the North Platte or in transporting
water from the Yellowstone River in Montana to Wyoming.
547
-------
Significant ecological impacts include converting approximately
43,000 acres of vegetation to plants and mines. Much of this
land will be returned to grassland following reclamation.
However, this change, together with habitat fragmentation,
will likely decrease productivity of selected species. Combined
with habitat attrition and poaching from the increased popula-
tion, some species of game will be adversely affected unless
positive steps are initiated in protection and game management.
Consumptive use of water for plant cooling and slurry transport
will reduce the extent of riparian habitat and the quality of the
aquatic ecosystem, and the new rail line will limit movement^of
antelope, reducing population size. The principal technological
variables affecting ecological impacts include population size
and water consumption addressed above, and alternative methods
for transporting energy resources.
548
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CHAPTER 10
THE IMPACTS OF,. ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
AT THE COLSTRIP AREA
10.1 INTRODUCTION
The Colstrip area of Rosebud County in southeastern Montana
is shown in Figure 10-1. The hypothetical developments proposed
for this scenario consist of surface coal mining, an electrical
power generating plant, Lurgi and Synthane high-Btu (British
thermal units) gasification plants, and Synthoil coal liquefac-
tion (Figure 10-2). Extra-high voltage transmission lines
transport electricity from the power plant to demand centers in
the midwestern U.S.I These facilities are to be constructed
between 1977 and 2000. Coal characteristics, technological
alternatives, and the scenario's development schedule are sum-
marized in Table 10-1.
Rosebud County's 1975 population was about 8,500, with
agriculture the major source of earned income (33 percent in
1972). Other major sectors of economic activity are government,
wholesale and retail trade, and construction. Construction
activity has increased substantially as a result of recent energy
development in the area. Per-capita income in Rosebud County has
been slightly lower than the Montana average, averaging out the
prosperous ranching activity and the relative poverty of the
Northern Cheyenne Indians, who comprised 28 percent of the popu-
lation in 1970.
The area around Colstrip is generally a semiarid plateau,
dissected by several tributaries of the Yellowstone River. The
topography ranges from gently rolling basins to rugged uplands
and eroded buttes. Rangeland accounts for 77 percent of the
While this hypothetical development may parallel develop-
ments proposed by Northern Natural Gas, Western Energy, Westmore-
land Resources, AMAXCoal, Montana Power, and others, the development
identified here is completely hypothetical. As with the
others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment
of a particular combination of technologies and existing
conditions.
549
-------
•..• • ( >,:: ::::,-' / : : •'•••:• -.:
:• •'•••'.'• -;**-,
FIGURE 10-1: THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO AREA
550
-------
•;• ; • ••-..,•
II • :' ' . '..." : ^ ',
.-ffr ' •'.'> ' : ; • ' -V-'' ' ••' : •< • : •-•:'•:-, • ' /. ^ .. •. '
*" '' ' ' ''""" ''
' r^-"''l:( . •'•.'•i'<
'..' '. '
••••• ' •
•-.-. ••'•••/•••• :
'
FIGURE 10-2:
THE LOCATION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
AT COLSTRIP
551
-------
TABLE 10-1:
RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES
AT COLSTRIP
Resources
Coal8 (billions of tons)
Resources 1.4
Proved Reserves 1.1
Technologies
Extraction
Coal
Four surface area mines of
varying capacity using
draglines
Conversion
One 3,OOOMWe power plant consisting
of four 750-MW turbine generators;
347. plant efficiency; 80% efficient
limestone scrubbers, 99% efficient
electrostatic precipitator, and wet
forced-draft cooling towers.
One Lurgi Coal Gasification plant
operating at 737. thermal effi-
ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana-
tion process; Claus plant H2S
removal; and wet forced-draft
cooling towers.
One Synthane Coal Gasification
Plant operating at 80% thermal
efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Claus plant
H2S removal; and wet forced-draft
cooling towers.
One Synthoil Coal Liquefaction
Plant operating at 927. thermal
efficiency; Claus plant HjS
removal; and wet forced-draft
cooling towers.
Transportation
Coal
Transportation from the mines
to facilities provided by
trucks
Gas
One 30-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Four 500-kV lines
. .
Characteristics
Coslb
Heat Content 8,870 Btu's/lb
Moisture 24 X
Volatile Matter 39 1
Fixed Carbon 51 %
Ash 10 I
Sulfur 1 1.
Facility
Size
16.8 MMtpy
19.6 MMtpy
8.4 MMtpy
12.0 MMtpy
750 MH
750 MW
1,300 MH
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
500 kV
500 kV
500 kV (2)
Completion
Date
1984
1989
1994
1999
1982
1984
1985
1990
1995
2000
1990
2000
1982
1984
1985
Facility
Serviced
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil
Lurgi Plant
Synthoil Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant
bbl/day = barrels per day
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
H2& « hydrogen sulflde
fcV - kilovolts
MMscfd - million standard cubic feet per day
MMtpy = million metric tons per year
MWe » megawatts-electric
Montana Energy Advisory Council. Coal Development Information Packet. Helena, Mont.'
State of Montana, 1974.
b
Ctvrtnicetk, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Coal
Characteristics. Utilization, and Combustion Experience. EPA-650/2-75-046, r
-------
TABLE 10-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF Ttffi
COLSTRIP AREA
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
Air Stability
Vegetation
Social and Economic3
Landowner ship
Federal
State
Private
Population Density
Unemployment
Incomec
3,000-4,000 feet
12-16 inches annually
Air stagnation most fre-
quent during fall and
winter
Ponderosa pines at higher
elevations; rolling grass-
lands at lower elevations
4.7
5.1
90.2
%
%
1.69 per square mile
4.6 %
$3,751 per capita annual
Rosebud Count/.
31970 Data.
'1972 Data,
county. Although most land in Rosebud County is privately owned,
the federal government owns much of the mineral rights.
Both groundwater and surface water are available in the
area, the latter primarily from the Yellowstone and Tongue rivers
and Rosebud Creek. Air quality in the area is good, the major
present pollutant being blowing dust. Selected characteristics
of the area are summarized in Table 10-2.
10.2 AIR IMPACTS"
10.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Air quality in the Colstrip area is currently affected by
several sources of air emissions, the largest of which are the
Colstrip 1 and 2 generating facilities and the Ashland Timber
553
-------
Company. Coal strip mines in the area may also cause some
localized increases in pollutant concentrations. Measurements of
concentrations of criteria pollutants1 taken in the Colstrip area
do not violate any federal or Montana standards. Based on these
measurements, annual average background levels for three pollu-
tants have been estimated (in micrograms per cubic meter) as:
sulfur dioxide (502)* 6; particulates, 15; and nitrogen dioxide
(N02), 10.2
B. Meteorological Conditions
The worst dispersion conditions for the Colstrip area are
associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than
5-10 miles per hour), unchanging wind direction, and relatively
low mixing depths.3 These conditions are likely to increase con-
centrations of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated
sources.^ Since worst-case conditions differ at each site,
predicted annual average pollutant levels vary among sites even
if pollutant sources are identical. Meteorological conditions in
the area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion more
than 27 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction5 and limited
plume mixing caused by temperature inversions at stack height can
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: carbon monoxide, non-methane hydro-
carbons, nitrogen dioxides, oxidants, particulates, and sulfur
dioxide. The term "hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to
non-methane hydrocarbons. The HC standard serves as a guideline
for achieving oxidant standards.
2
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgement. They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time.
Measurements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are
not available in the rural areas. However, high-background HC
levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West
and may occur here. Background CO levels are now assumed to be
relatively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the
area are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60
miles.
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that
emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are
stack emitters.
Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes run into elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air
conditions.
554
-------
be expected to occur regularly.1 Favorable dispersion conditions
associated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are
expected to occur about 14 percent of the time.
The pollution dispersion potential for the Colstrip area
varies considerably with the season and time of day. Fall and
winter mornings are most frequently associated with poor disper-
sion due largely to low wind speeds, low mixing depths, and the
prevalence of high-pressure systems during these seasons. The
highest potential for dispersion occurs during the spring when
low-level winds are strongest.
10.2.2 Emission Sources
The primary emission sources in the Colstrip scenario are a
power plant, three conversion facilities (Lurgi, Synthane, and
Synthoil), supporting surface mines, and those associated with
population increases. The largest of these sources, the power
plant, has four 750-megawatts-electric boilers, each with its own
stack.2 The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator
(ESP) which removes 99 percent of particulates and a scrubber
which removes 80 percent of the S02 and 40 percent of the NC>2.
The plants have two 75,000-barrel storage tanks, with standard
floating roof construction, each of which will emit about 0.7
pound of hydrocarbons (HC) per hour.
Most mine-related pollution will originate from diesel
engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides, HC, and
particulates. Although water spray will be used to suppress dust
in this scenario, some additional particulates will occur from
blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.3 Pollution from energy-
related population increases will be mainly due to additional
automobile traffic. Concentrations have been estimated from
available data on average emission per person in several western
cities.^
See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S . Cities. Ashville,
N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975.
2
Each stack is 500 feet high.
The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency is investigating this question and will be used to
inform further impact analysis.
4
Refer to the introduction to Part II for identification of
these cities and references to methods used to model urban
meteorological conditions. This scenario models urban concentra-
tions only for Colstrip, Montana.
555
-------
TABLE 10-3:
EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES
(pounds per hour)
Facilities3
3,000-MWe Power Plant
Mine
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
Synthoil
Mine
Plant
Particulates
14
2,792
7.7
450
6.9
213
10
316
SO2
9.2
14 , 000
5
686
4.6
478
6.7
946
NOX
126
18,900
69
2,325
62
1,200
92
1,350
HC
76
524
8
47
7.2
24
11
4,616
CO
15
1,752
42
310
38
160
56
181
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
MWe = megawatts-electric
NOX = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
aA detailed description of each plant is contained in the Energy Resource
Development Systems description to be published as separate report in 1977.
Stack parameters, heights and pollutant emission rates are described in
detail.
The power plant and the three coal conversion facilities are
cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell circulates
water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute and emits 0.01
percent of its water as a mist. The circulating water has a
total dissolved solids content of 10,000 parts per million. This
results in a salt emission rate of 21,200 pounds per year for
each cell.1
10.2.3 Impacts
Table 10-3 lists emissions of five criteria pollutants for
each of the four facilities. In all four cases, most emissions
come from the plants rather than the mines. The largest single
contributor to total emissions is the power plant for all pollu-
tants except HC, in which case the Synthoil plant has the highest
emissions. For all five pollutants, the Synthane plant has the
smallest total emissions.
The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the
Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16.
556
-------
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
Construction of the hypothetical power plant will begin
during this period, but the plant will not become operational
until after 1980. Few air quality impacts will be associated
with the construction phase of the plant, although construction
activity will cause increases in wind-blown dust which may cause
periodic violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards.
2. Pollution from the Town
The population of Colstrip should increase from the 1975
level of 3,000 to 4,080 by 1980.1 This increase will contribute
to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to urban
sources. Table 10-4 lists predicted concentrations of the five
criteria pollutants measured in the center of town and at a point
3 miles from the center of town. This information shows that the
only ambient standard violated in Colstrip due to urban sources
is that for HC.2
B. Impacts to 1990
1. Pollution from Facilities
The power plant will become operational in 1985, and a Lurgi
gasification plant will become operational in 1989. Tables 10-5
and 10-6 give typical and peak pollutant concentrations after
these plants come on-line. Peak concentrations from the plants
will not violate any federal or Montana ambient air standards.3
Refer to Section 10.4.3.
2
Hydrocarbon standards are vxolated regularly in most urban
areas.
Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal
because they have been (hypothetically) sited 6 miles apart. If
the wind blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes will
interact. However, the resulting concentrations would be less
than those produced by either plant and mine combination when the
wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentra-
tion) . The predicted peak level increases from plant interac-
tions are from 0.6-0.8 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) for
particulates; 2.7-2.8 yg/m3 for sulfur dioxide; and 3.6-5.1 yg/m3
for nitrogen dioxide. Had the plants been sited closer together,
the probability of interactions would increase. Sensitivity analysis
of this siting consideration will be done during the remainder of
the study.
557
-------
TABLE 10-4:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT COLSTRIP
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
NO2C
Annual
HCd
3 -hour
CO
8 -hour
1-hour
Concentr at ions3
Background
15
6
10
Mid-Town Point
1980
8
27
4.5
15
27
13
210
902
1,478
1990
10
34
5
17
30
16
270
1,056
1,730
2000
.13
44
7
24
42
21
351
1,320
2,163
Rural Point
1980
1
27
0
15
27
1
210
907
1990
1
34
0
17
30
2
270
1,056
1,730
2000
2
44
1
24
42
3
361
1,320
2,163
Standards1*
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
40,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
40,000
Montana
75
200
60
260
750
Ui
en
00
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
are predicted ground-level concentrations for urban sources. Background concentrations are taken from
Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3. miles from the center of town.
"Primary and Secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the public health and
welfare, respectively.
clt is assumed that 50 percent of nitrogen oxide from urban sources is converted to NOg. Refer to the intro-
duction to Part II.
3-hour HC standards is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 10-5:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM POWER PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
N02C
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrations3
Background
15
6
10
Typical
5.6
16
31
4.7
Peak
Plant
0.5
17
2.7
87
657
3.6
43
Plant
and Mine
0.5
23
2.7
90
657
3.6
69
Colstrip
0.3
19
0.5
57
341
2.3
45
Standards1*
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Montana
75
200
60
260
750
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ul
01
HC = hydrocarbons
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant/mine combination. Annual average background
levels are considered the best estimates of short-term background levels. Concentrations over Colstrip are largely attributable
to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to- protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NO2. Refer to the Introduction to'Part II.
"TThe 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 10-6:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM LURGI PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
SO2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrat ionsa
Background
15
6
10
Typical
1.9
2
8.4
3.3
Peak
Plant
0.3
3.4
0.6
6
60
0.6
5
Plant
and Mine
0.6
6.1
0.8
8.3
60
3.5
25
Colstrip
0.1
2.5
0.1
3.6
8.7
3.5
0.7
Standards13
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Montana
75
200
60
260
750
Non-Significant Deterioration
-Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ul
-------
Tables 10-5 and 10-6 also list Non-Significant Deterioration
(NSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants
which can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas
with air quality better than those allowed by ambient air standards) .!
"Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest areas, such as
national parks and forests.2 Peak concentrations attributable to
the power and Lurgi plants, including contributions from their
associated mines, do not exceed Class II allowable increments.
However, the Lurgi plant exceeds Class I increments for the 24-
hour and 3-hour S02 averaging times. Peak concentrations from
the power plant will exceed all Class I increments except that
for annual particulates, with typical concentrations violating
the 24-hour and 3-hour S02 increments.
Since the plants exceed Class I increments, they would have
to be located a sufficient distance from any Class I areas so
that emissions will be diluted by atmospheric mixing to accept-
able concentrations prior to reaching such areas. The distance
required for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size,
emission controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect
establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas. Current Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations require a minimum
buffer zone of 75 miles for the power plant and 7-8 miles for the
Lurgi plant between these plants and any Class I area boundary.3
There are no Class I areas within the Lurgi plant's buffer zone,
but the Custer National Forest southwest of Colstrip is a poten-
tial Class I area which, if redesignated, could result in a
violation from the power plant.4
Non-Significant Deterioration standards apply only to
particulates and sulfur dioxide.
2
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all Non-Significant Deterioration areas Class II and established
a petition and public hearing process for redesignating areas
Class I or Class III. A Class II designation is for areas which
have moderate, well-controlled energy or industrial development
and permits less deterioration than that allowed by federal
secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deterioration to
the level of secondary standards.
Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be
symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated
by area "wind roses", which show wind direction and strength
patterns for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direction of
Non-Significant Deterioration areas from energy facilities will
be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.
4
Currently, all Non-Significant Deterioration areas are
Class II.
561
-------
2. Pollution from the Town
Colstrip's predicted population increase to 5,250 will cause
some increases in urban pollutants (Table 10-4). As in the 1980
case, the HC standard will be the only one violated. All other
pollutant concentrations remain well within federal and state
standards.
C. Impacts to 2000
1. Pollution from Facilities
Two new facilities, a Synthoil liquefaction plant and a
Synthane gasification plant, will become operational between 1990
and 2000. Tables 10-7 and 10-8 list typical concentrations from
the plants, peak concentrations from the plants, and peak concen-
trations from the plant and associated mine combinations. These
data show that no ambient standards will be violated by the
Synthane plant. The Synthoil plant will exceed only the 3-hour
HC standard but will do so by a factor of more than 100 to 1.1
Neither of the new facilities exceeds any Class II NSD
increments. However, both plants will violate the Class I incre-
ments for 24-hour and 3-hour SC>2 • In addition, the Synthoil
plant will exceed the Class I increment for annual SC>2, and
typical concentrations from this plant approach the 3-hour SC-2
increment. These potential violations would require buffer zones
of 13.4 miles for the Synthoil plant and 7.1 miles for the
Synthane plant.
2. Pollution from the Town
Colstrip's population will increase to 7,910 by the year
2000, and some increase in pollution concentrations will be
associated with this growth (Table 10-4). Although the ambient
standard for 3-hour HC is exceeded, no other ambient standards
are closely approached.
10.2.4 Other Air Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been made
to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may
effect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years.
These categories of potential impacts are sulfates, oxidants,
Interactions between the new Synthoil and Synthane plants
and the Lurgi and electrical generation plants will increase
annual peak concentrations. However, these increases will be
small and cause no standard violations.
562
-------
TABLE 10-7:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHOIL PLANT
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
so2
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
N02
Annual
HCd
3 -hour
Conoentrationsa
Background
15
6
10
Typical
3
7.2
23
428
Peak
Plant
0.6
9
2.4
17
92
4
17,200
Colstrip
0.6
0.1
1.9
3
0.5
9.3
Standards13
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Montana
75
200
60
260
750
Non-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
Ol
-------
TABLE 10-8:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHANE PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
Annual
HCd
3-hour
Concentrations3
Background
15
6
10
Typical
3.9
3.3
8.6
4.2
Peak
Plant
0.2
1.6
0.2
5.3
4.2
0.4
2.5
Plant
and Mine
1.6
5.5
1.3
7.3
43
14
20
Colstrip
0.1
3.6
0.3
5.6
IB
0.5
11
Standards1"
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
Montana
75
200
60
260
750
Hon-Significant Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
HC = hydrocarbons
N(>2 = nitrogen dioxide
SC>2 = sulfur dioxide
^hese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthane plant/mine combination. Annual average background
levels are considered the best estimates of short-term background levels. Concentrations over Colstrip are largely attributable
to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times' other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can'be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to NO2- Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
*T?he 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling
tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.1
A. Sulfates
Very little is known about sulfate concentrations likely to
result from western energy development. However, one study sug-
gests that for oil shale retorting, peak conversion rates of S02
to sulfates in plumes are less than 1 percent.2 Applying this
ratio to plants in the Colstrip scenario results in peak sulfate
concentrations of less than 1 microgram per cubic meter (yg/m3) .
This level is well below EPA's suggested danger point of 12 ug/m3
for a 24-hour average.3
B. Oxidants
Oxidants (which include compounds such as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) can be
emitted from specific sources or formed in the atmosphere. For
example, oxidants can be formed when HC combines with NOX. Too
little is known about the actual conversion processes that form
oxidants to predict concentrations from power or liquefaction
plants. However, the relatively low peak concentrations of HC
from the power plant and its associated mine (69 yg/m3) suggest
that an oxidant problem will probably not result from that source
alone. An oxidant problem would more likely result from the com-
bination of background HC and NOx emitted in the power plant
plume. Since background HC levels are unknown, the extent of
this problem has not been predicted.
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitrog-
enous Compounds in the Environment, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1973.
2
Nordsieck, R., et al. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research
and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975. This study
assumed that sulfur dioxide in the plumes was converted to
sulfate at the rate of 1 percent per hour independent of humidity,
clouds, or photochemically related reaction intensity. Recent
work in Scandinavia suggests that acid-forming sulfates arriving
in Norway are complex ammonium sulfates formed by a catalytic
and/or photochemical process which varies with the season.
565
-------
In only one of several cases investigated^- did oxidant
formation from coal gasification plants exceed federal standards.
However, these cases are not comparable to the Lurgi and Synthane
facilities hypothesized in this scenario, and thus levels of
oxidants formed from the combination of HC and NO2 were not
predicted. For the Lurgi plant, HC concentrations will be much
smaller than those found in the one case in which standards were
violated, but the Synthoil plant will produce peak HC concentra-
tions more than 100 times greater than the federal standard.
Since NO2 is also emitted in the Synthoil plant plumes, oxidant
formation is probable.
HC concentrations over Colstrip, which are somewhat higher
than the federal standard, are also likely to create oxidant
problems. Since oxidant formation may occur relatively slowly
(i.e. one or more hours), this problem will be less when wind
conditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates (those less then 3 microns in diameter)
are primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the plants.2
Current information suggests that particulate emissions con-
trolled by ESP have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns, and
uncontrolled particulates have a mean diameter of about 10
microns.3 In general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the
smaller the mean diameter of the particles remaining in plant
plumes. The high efficiency ESP's (99-percent removal) in this
scenario are estimated to remove enough coarse particulates so
that fine particulates will account for about 50 percent of the
total particulate concentrations in plant plumes. This per-
centage applies to the power plant as well as the Lurgi and
Synthane gasification processes. However, since just half of the
particulate emissions from the Synthoil plant are controlled,
Nordsieck, R., et al. Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research
and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975.
2
Fine particulates produced by atmospheric chemical reac-
tions take long enough to form so they occur long distances from
the plants.
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California
Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974.
566
-------
only 25-30 percent of its emissions will be fine particulates.
Health effects from fine particulates are discussed in Section
12.6.
D. Long-Range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-1.0 microns in
diameter) is that they reduce long-range visibility. Particu-
lates suspended in the atmosphere scatter light and thus with
increased concentrations and/or distances will eventually reduce
the contrast between an object and its background below the level
required by the human eye to distinguish the object from the
background. Estimates of visual ranges for the scenario are
based on empirical relationships between visual distance and fine
particulate concentrations.1
Visibility in the region of this scenario averages about 60
miles. The greatest reduction in average visibility will occur
along a north-northwest/south-southwest line extending through
Forsyth, Montana. As the facilities in this scenario become
operational, the average visibility will decrease only negligibly
by 1985, to 58 miles by 1990, to 57 miles by 1995, and to 56
miles by 2000.
E. Plume Opacity
Fine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although ESP will remove enough
particulates for power plants to meet emission standards, stack
plumes will still exceed the 20-percent opacity standard.2 Thus,
plumes will be visible at the stack exit and for some distance
downwind. Although no opacity standards exist for gasification
or liquefaction plants, the Lurgi and Synthane plants both have
Charlson, R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the
Generality of Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concentra-
tion and Light Scatter." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 2
(September 1968), pp. 455-64. Since the model is designed for
urban areas, its use in rural areas yields results that are only
approximate.
2
The Federal New Source Performance Standard for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of
particulates per million British thermal unit's heat input. The
plume opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly
met as the particulate emissions standard because it would
require removal of 99.8 percent of all plume particulates, which
would increase electrostatic precipitators costs.
567
-------
TABLE 10-9: SALT DEPOSITION RATE
Plant
Lurgi Gasification
Power Plant
Synthane Gasification
Synthoil Liquefaction
Average Salt Deposition Rate
(pounds per acre per year)
1.1 milesa
16
91
8.5
23
l.i-9.3
miles
1
5.8
0.6
1.5
9.3-27.8
miles
0.03
0.20
0.02
0.05
aDiameter of circles bounding the area subject to the
salt deposition rate.
two stacks which would produce plumes with greater than 20-percent
opacity. None of the 24 stacks associated with the Synthoil
plant will have a plume exceeding 20-percent opacity.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
The mist omitted from cooling towers has a high salt con-
tent, and will deposit salts downwind from the towers. Estimated
salt deposition rates for the facilities in this scenario are
shown in Table 10-9. These rates are relatively low and decrease
rapidly beyond 1.1 miles. Some interaction of salt deposition
from the various plants will occur. For example, one area of
overlap between the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants will
receive a cumulative total of 7.4 pounds per acre per year. The
effect of salt on the area will depend on soil conditions, rain-
fall, and existing vegetation.
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
Fogging potential in the Colstrip area is considered some-
what low since humidities above 90 percent occur only about 30
times per year, with heavy fogs averaging 10 days yearly. However,
high incidence of subfreezing temperatures {107 days per year)
will cause relatively high icing potentials. This increase in
icing could add significantly to ice accumulations and hazardous
driving conditions on nearby roads and highways.
10.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
A. Air Quality
Four new facilities are projected for the Colstrip scenario
by the year 2000. The only federal or state ambient standard to
568
-------
be violated by these facilities is for HC, which will be greatly
exceeded by the Synthoil plant.
Each of the facilities will exceed several NSD Class I
increments. Peak concentrations from the power plant will sur-
pass all allowable Class I increments except for annual particu-
lates. The Synthoil plant will exceed all Class I increments for
SO2» and the Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants will exceed
the 24-hour and 3-hour increments for SC>2. Because of these
violations, each of the facilities will require buffer zones.
The largest buffer zone will be required for the power plant (75
miles), followed by Synthoil (13.4 miles), Lurgi (7.8 miles), and
Synthane (7.1 miles).
Population increases in Colstrip will add to existing pollu-
tant levels. Violations of HC standards will be exacerbated by
concentrations due solely to urban sources.
Several other categories of air impacts have received only
preliminary attention. Our information to date suggests that
oxidant and fine particulate problems are likely. Plumes from
stacks at all facilities will be visible and, in the case of the
power plant, the 20-percent opacity standard may be exceeded.
Long-range visibility will be reduced from the current average of
approximately 60 miles to 56 miles by the year 2000.
B. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plant would vary if
emission control systems with other efficiencies were used. For
example. Table 10-10 shows SO2 pollution concentrations which
would result if the plant used only enough control to meet most New
Source Performance Standards; that is, if the plant removed only
20 percent of the S02 rather than the 80 percent currently
hypothesized.-'- These data show that resulting concentrations
would violate the federal 3-hour standard and approach the
Montana 24-hour standard for S02«
These efficiencies would probably not meet the New Source
Performance Standards (NSPS) opacity standard. NSPS do not exist
for gasification and liquefaction plants. The Lurgi, Synthane,
and Synthoil plants meet all Class II increments in this sce-
nario.
569
-------
TABLE 10-10:
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL EMISSION CONTROLS3
(micrograms per cubic meter)
S02
Averaging Time
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Concentration
7
225
1,700
Standards
Primary
80
365
Secondary
1,300
Montana
60
260
750
S02 = sulfur dioxide
These are maximum concentrations which assume 20-percent S02
removal, which would meet the federal New Source Performance Standard
of 1.2 pounds of S02 per million British thermal unit (s) heat input.
Other alternatives are for the plants to increase the
efficiency of emission controls or reduce total capacity to meet
ambient or NSD increments. The information in Table 10-11 shows
that 79-percent S02 removal and 98.3-percent particulate removal
is necessary to meet all allowable Class II increments.1
TABLE 10-11:
REQUIRED REMOVAL TO MEET
CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
Removal
(°/o)
0
77
79
80
98.3
S02 = sulfur dioxide
These removal efficiencies for sulfur dioxide and particu-
lates are technologically feasible and are actually less than the
efficiencies projected in this scenario. More attention will be
given to technological feasibility of highly efficient control
systems during the remainder of the project.
570
-------
C. Data Availability
Availability and quality of data have limited the impact
analysis reported in this chapter. These factors have primarily
affected estimation of long-range visibility, plume opacity,
oxidant formation, sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of
trace materials. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation. This includes the effect of
pollutants on visibility.
2. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals. This would improve
estimates of fallout and rainout from plumes.
10.3 WATER IMPACTS
10.3.1 Introduction
Energy resource development facilities in the Colstrip
scenario are sited in the Yellowstone River Basin, a subbasin of
the Upper Missouri River Basin. The major water source for this
development is the Yellowstone River, although several large
tributaries could be used (see Figure 10-3). Annual precipita-
tion in the area is about 14 inches, 3-4 inches of which fall as
snow. Thus, the area receives adequate precipitation to sustain
local water demands by irrigation, municipal, and industrial
users.
10.3.2 Existing Conditions
A. Groundwater
The largest aquifer systems in the Colstrip area are the
Madison aquifer, aquifer systems in the coal and sandstone beds
of the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation, and
alluvial aquifers. Although the Madison aquifer is quite deep in
the Colstrip area (about 7,500 feet)l it is considered here as a
potential water source because of its high pressure (water will
rise in a well to within a few hundred feet of the ground surface) .
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Pro-
gram, 1974.
571
-------
Tongue River /. . .
Reservoir Woorhead
FIGURE 10-3: IMPORTANT ffiTDROLOGIC FEATURES OF THE COLSTRIP
SCENARIO AREA
572
-------
The closest recharge area of the Madison is along the
Bighorn Mountains several miles southwest of Colstrip. Discharge
is primarily by upward leakage into overlying strata.
Although large quantities of water are available from the
Madison aquifer in the southeastern Montana region, its produc-
tivity in the Colstrip area has not been fully evaluated. A test
well drilled through this aquifer near Colstrip indicates well
productivity may be between 200 and 300 gallons per minute (gpm) . 1
The total dissolved solids (TDS) content of the aquifer in the
scenario area is about 2,000 milligrams per liter (mg/&) . Although
deep wells into the Madison aquifer could provide a significant
fraction of the water required by energy facilities in the
Colstrip area, surface-water and shallow groundwater sources can
possibly be developed at less expense.
Aquifers in the Tongue River Member are in sandstone and
coal beds that are deposited in alternate layers with shales.
The main coal bed aquifer is the Rosebud coal seam, which is the
primary source of coal at Colstrip. The water table depth varies
but is usually less than 50 feet. Yields of individual wells are
usually less than 100 gpm. Recharge is from rainfall and surface
streams. Discharge is to seeps and springs on hillsides and as
baseflow to the larger streams.
Water quality in the Tongue River aquifer system is highly
variable, differing with each sandstone body and coal seam. The
median TDS content of 49 water samples from the Tongue River
Member was about 900 mg/£,2 and fresh water is generally less
than 1,000 mg/£ (1,000-3,000 mg/5, is considered slightly saline
by the United States Geological Survey [USGS] standards).3
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement
on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt
Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.:
State of Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conserva-
tion, ,1974, V. 3-A, p. 359.
2
Hopkins, William B. Water Resources of the Northern
Cheyenne Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern
Montana, U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas
HA-468. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973.
3
U.S.,' Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Study
and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural
Water, Water Supply Paper 1473. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1970, p. 219.
573
-------
The hardness of Tongue River aquifer water decreases with depth.
At present, this groundwater is used only for domestic purposes
and livestock watering. Although the aquifer system of the
Tongue River Member could not support the energy facilities of
the scenario, it could provide water for associated municipal growth.
The alluvial aquifers are along the Yellowstone River and
its tributaries, Rosebud Creek and the Tongue River. The allu-
vium along these rivers is up to 100 feet thick; as much as 60 of
that 100 feet is saturated.2 Wells may yield up to 700 gpm for
short periods. Most recharge to and discharge from these aqui-
fers is by interflow with the associated streams. Additional
water is lost to vegetation and wells. Water quality in the alluvial
aquifers depends on the quality of the river water and the groundwater
received from the bedrock formation. The median TDS content of
16 samples taken from alluvial aquifers was about 1,100 mg/£.3
Present uses of water from alluvial aquifers are limited to
supplying domestic and livestock needs. Alluvial aquifers such
as those along the Tongue River could provide part of the water
for municipal growth but could not support energy facilities.
B. Surface Water
The Colstrip scenario lies within the Yellowstone River
Subbasin of the Upper Missouri River Basin. The Yellowstone and
Missouri Rivers contribute comparable flows at their confluence
on the Montana-North Dakota border. The main tributaries of the
Yellowstone flowing through the Fort Union coal region are the
Powder, Tongue, and Bighorn Rivers (see Figure 10-3). Flows for
these rivers are shown in Table 10-12. The largest reservoir in
this part of the Yellowstone basin is Bighorn Lake, which is
located on the Bighorn River about 75 miles southwest of Colstrip
and has a total storage of 1.3 million acre-feet. The only other
U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Study
and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural
Water, Water Supply Paper 1473. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1970, p. 219; and Renick, B. Coleman. Geology
and Groundwater Resources of Central and Southern Rosebud County,
Montana, U.S . Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 600. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1929, p. 40.
2
Hopkins, William B. Water Resources of the Northern
Cheyenne Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern
Montana, U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas
HA-468. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973.
574
-------
TABLE 10-12:
SELECTED FLOW DATA FOR THE UPPER MISSOURI AND
YELLOWSTONE RIVERS (Flows adjusted to the 1970
level of water resources development)a
Subbastn or Tributary
Upper Missouri River
(At Sioux City, Iowa)
Upper Missouri River
(At Oahe Dam)
Yellowstone River
Powder River
Tongue River
Bighorn River
Clarks Fork
Upper Missouri Tributaries
(upstream from confluence
with the Yellowstone River)
Drainage
Area
(sq. mi.)
314,600
243,500
70,115
13,415
5,400
22,885
2,783
91,557
Annual
Maximum
(acre-feet)
-
-
12,690,000
lj 154, 000
569,000
-
1,124,000
Minimum
(acre- feet)
-
-
3,720,000
43,000
32,000
-
538,000
Average
(acre-feet)
21,821,000
18,525,000
8,800,000
416,000
304,000
2,550,000
767,000
7,276,000
lI.S., Department of- the Interior, Water for Energy Management Team. Report on
Water -for Energy in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone
River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975.
ft
storage facility of significance is the 74,000 acre-ft Tongue
River Reservoir about 50 miles south of Colstrip.l
Flows in lower-elevation tributaries to the Yellowstone
River peak between March and early May. The larger rivers, which
depend on the higher-elevation snowpack for their spring runoff
flows, peak between mid-June and mid-July. Many of the very
small streams have significant discharges from mid-winter to
early spring as a result of snowmelt caused by chinook winds or
by local thunderstorms in the summer. The soils in the area have
relatively low permeability, resulting in low infiltration rates.
Runoff averages 0.2-0.5 inch per year.
The Yellowstone River is free-flowing to its confluence with
the Bighorn River. Because the flows in the Bighorn are about
the same as those of the Yellowstone, and because the Bighorn
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group
Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.
575
-------
River is regulated by Bighorn Lake, the flows in the Yellowstone
near Forsyth (where the energy facilities will draw water) are
regulated for most of the year.
Water supply and use in Montana is shown in Table 10-13.
About 70 percent of total water use is for irrigation. The
majority of this water is supplied through state and federal
projects, but a portion has been developed privately. Ground-
water also is used for irrigation but in negligible amounts
compared to surface-water usage.
With the exception of Glendive, municipalities downstream of
Miles City use groundwater as a public supply? towns upstream
from Miles City use surface water.1
The water quality of the Yellowstone Basin rivers is gener-
ally good, with the possible exception of the Powder River. Both
the Tongue and Bighorn are considered of national importance as
sport fishing areas. The Powder River characteristically has
high TDS concentrations (3,000-10,000 tag/Si, which is considered
moderately saline by U.S.G.S. standards). Combined with its
tendency to dry up in some stretches in late summer, these TDS
levels reduce the Powder River's potential for use as boiler
make-up or drinking water. The major source of pollution in all
three rivers is agricultural. The representative values of water
quality parameters given in Table 10-14 can help individuals
evaluate water quality acceptability for specific uses. Although
not reported on this table, iron and manganese concentrations in
Armells Creek at Colstrip commonly exceed Environmental Protec-
tion Agency's Proposed National Secondary Drinking Water Regu-
lations.2
10.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
for the Colstrip scenario are shown in Table 10-15. Two sets of
data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System data
are based on secondary sources (including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement
on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt
Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.:
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974.
2
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary
Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg.
17143-47 (March 31, 1977).
576
-------
TABLE 10-13:
ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE-WATER SITUATION
FOR SELECTED AREAS IN MONTANA3
(1,000 acre-feet)
Average Annual Water Supply
Modified Inflow to Region15
Undepleted Water Yield
Estimated 1975 Imports
Total Water Supply
Estimated 1975 Water Usec
Irrigation
M & I Including Rural
Minerals
Thermal Electric
Otherd
Reservoir Evaporation
Total Depletions
Estimated Future Water Supply
^Modified 1975 Water Supply6
• Estimated Legal or In-stream
Commitments
;Net Water Supply f
Yellowstone
River
6,305
4,239
0
10,544
776
43
10
1
49
234
1,113
9,431
0
9,431
Upper
Missouri
River
847
8,398
140
9,385
1,480
56
0
0
155
369
2,060
7,325
0
7,325
aU.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing
the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1975.
Inflow reflects the effects of depletions upstream of
state lines.
°includes surface water, surface-related groundwater,
and mined groundwater.
nSTo-depletions are attributed to thermal electric,
recreation, and consumptive conveyance losses.
eModified 1975 supply is determined by subtracting
estimated total water use from total supply.
Available for future in-stream uses such as for fish,
wildlife, recreation, power, or navigation or for
consumptive use. Physical or economic constraints could
preclude full development.
577
-------
TABLE 10-14:
SELECTED WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS FOR MAJOR SOUTHEASTERN RIVERS
(parts per million by weight)
Parameter
Calcium
Magnesium
Sodium
Potassium
Bicarbonate
Sulfate
Chloride
Nitrate
TDS
Hardness (Ca, Kg)
pH
Turbidity
BOD
Fecal Colifora
(counts/100 mg/jt)
Dissolved Oxygen
Sediment (55)
Yellowstone
At Forsytha
23£-74
4-29"
17-81 ,
1.7f-4.8*
87^-203*
44-268
3.2c-12f
0.06-0.8
151f-660
84f-300f
7.6f-8.5£
4-300
2,1-3.6
0-130
7.3C-12.8
9-992
Powder At
Moorheada
65-1 S9
24-132
48-121
140-212
283-740
6-33
0.2-8.7
510-4, 0809
Og-l,2209
6.8-8.5
0.69-109
24-2,400
5.29-12.49
Bighorn At
Hardina
48-81
19-46
13-78
1.5-3
212-307
61-285
1.0-4.4
0.1-0.4
256-9529
140g-381
7.59-8.79
24-51
0.79-3.5
25-70
8.4-15*
87-123
Tongue Hear
Deckerb
31-83
16-67
7-59
128-306
53-330
0-2
0-1.6
1459-853
108g-5809
7.09-8.69
6-35
3.2-3.4
2.0
9.1-13.3
10-110
Sarpv
Creek5
18-130
8-190
14-600
7.4-11
89-853
40-1,400
3.1-16
0.00-0.46
100-2,610
78-1,100
7.6-8.5
30-100
7.8-11
Rosebud
Near
Colstripc
29-93
19-110
13-100
74-12
132-606
54-420
1.1-7
0-0.42
198-1,000
150-670
7.5-8.9
5-200
7.2-12.6
Armells
porsyth0
24-170
12-210
35-1,000
6.5-12
89-913
110-2,400
4.7-29
0-0.23
245-4,030
110-1,300
7.4-8.6
1-400
7-13.2
Drinking
water
Standard"
250h
250^
10x
500"
6.5-8.5h
5
-------
TABLE 10-15:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE COLSTRIP AREA IN THE YEAR 2000
Use
Power Generation
Coal Gasification
(Lurgi)
Coal Gasification
(Syn thane)
Coal Liquefaction
(Synthoil)
Coal Mining
Size
3,000 MWe
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
100,000 bbl/day
56.8 MMtpy
Requirement3
(acre-f t/yr)
ERDSb
42,000
7,060
10,100
19,400
WPAC
37,400
4,820
8,370
10,900
1,240
bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year
MWe = megawatts-electric
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of 100
percent. Although not realistic for sustained operation,
this load factor will generate the maximum water demand
for these facilities.
From the Energy Resources Development System Description.
°Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants
in the Western United States, Final Report, for University
of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming. The load factors assumed in that report
were different for different technologies. The water
consumption was changed to correspond to a 100-percent
load factor in this table.
579
-------
data accumulations1) and can be considered typical consumptions.
The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on mini-
mum water use requirements for the Colstrip area and take into
account the moisture content of the coal being used and local
meteorological data.2
Figure 10-4 shows the water consumed for different purposes
by the hypothesized energy facilities. As indicated, more water
is used for cooling than processing and solids disposal combined.
Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water for all
technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content
of the feedstock coal.
Additional water requirements are associated with the coal
mines that will support these facilities. Reclamation efforts
will use the majority of the mine water required; dust con-
trol, handling, crushing, and service water requirements are
estimated to be approximately 1,240 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/
yr)3 or 25 percent of that required for reclamation. However,
because the reclamation water requirements are not clearly
defined for this specific coal spoil waste under area climatic
conditions, Table 10-16 estimates were based on an irrigation
rate of 9 inches per year over a 5-year period.
Water supplies for the various scenario energy conversion
facilities in the Colstrip area will be imported by individual
pipelines from the Yellowstone River as shown in Figure 10-5.
The Yellowstone River is the most likely source of water because
of its proximity, high flow, and good quality. However, there is
These energy resource development systems, which are forth-
coming as a separate publication, are based on data drawn from:
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.
Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975. Radian Corporation. A Western
Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin,
Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
2
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, B.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
4
Differences between water demand of native grasses and
average precipitation. See U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management. Resource and Reclamation Evaluation;
Otter Creek Study Site, EMRIA Report No. 1. Billings, Mont.:
Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
580
-------
45 r-
40
35
30
25
20
0)
k.
o
<
o
o
o
15
10
R-42,000
W-37,000
Cooling Tower
Evaporation
Consumed in
the Process
Solids Disposal
Consumption
R-19,400
R-10,096
W-8,368
W-10,900
Power Synthoil
Generation
Synthane
FIGURE 10-4: WATER CONSUMPTION' FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE
COLSTRIP SCENARlb
581
-------
FIGD1E 10-5: WATER PIPELINES FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO
582
-------
TABLE 10-16: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION
Mine
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil
Total
Acres Disturbed
Per Year
340
240
240
250
1,070
Maximum
Acres Under
Irrigation
1,720
1,180
1,180
1,250
5,330
Water
Requirement
(acre-ft/yr )
1,290
890
890
940
4,010
currently a 3-year moratorium on new diversions from the Yellowstone
in excess of 20 cubic feet per second (14,000 acre-ft/yr).1 This
moratorium, which will end in 1977, was put into effect to allow
Montana time to clear up water rights questions raised by a
change in procedures. Since the Montana Water Use Act of 1973,
the state has administered all surface-water and groundwater
rights through a permit system. Montana is now in the process of
determining valid appropriations under the old "right of use"
system before approving new rights that might over-allocate
Yellowstone River water. When this situation has stabilized, a
developer will be able to apply for a new right. Although an old
right could be transferred, it might not be recognized or given
the same priority under the new system.
B. Municipal Facilities
Assuming that the towns on the Yellowstone River (including
Miles City) will continue to use surface water for municipal
needs, the projected increases in water supply requirements as a
result of energy development (based on population predictions
from Section 10.4) are shown in Table 10-17. Rural population
growth generally is not expected because of county zoning and
land-use practices.
The only municipality in Table 10-14 that will use ground-
water as a supply source is Colstrip, where a well field will be
developed that will tap aquifers in the Tongue River member.
Since only about 500 gpm will be needed by the year 2000, the
well field should not be extensive.
Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 89-8-105 (Cumulative
Supplement 1975).
583
-------
TABLE 10-17:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED
POPULATION GROWTH3-
(acre-feet per year)
Location
Forsyth/k
Colstrip
Miles City0
Billings0
1980
1,120
245
35
56
1990
4,256
420
91
154
2000
12,320
784
322
504
Above the 1975 base level; based on
125 gallons per capita per day (gcd) .
on 1,000 gcd (present consump-
tion during the summer — Montana Water
Quality Bureau) .
°Only growth caused by energy develop-
ment included.
10.3.4 Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The energy facilities at Colstrip have been designed so that
no liquid waste will be returned to the surface-water or ground-
water system. All potential pollution areas will have runoff
protection systems to intercept and direct natural runoff to
either a water treatment plant or a holding pond. Water col-
lected in this manner will be evaporated or will be treated and
used as make-up for plant operations. The holding ponds will
have dikes and will generally be lined with clay to retard
leakage of fluids into the aquifer systems. The on-site water
effluents for the facilities are shown in Figure 10-4.
The quantities of solid wastes from the energy facilities
hypothesized for the Colstrip area are shown in Table 10-18. The
largest quantities of effluents are from ash disposal and flue
gas desulfurization. Although the exact make-up of the effluent
streams will depend on the technology used, the ash dis-
posal effluent quantity will depend primarily on the ash content
of the coal used. The quantity of flue gas desulfurization
effluent will depend on the sulfur content of the coal and the
fraction of sulfur removed in scrubbing.
584
-------
TABLE 10-18: RESIDUAL GENERATION FROM TECHNOLOGIES AT COLSTRIPa
conder.sate Treat-
ment Sludge
Boiler Demineral-
izer Waste
Treatment Waste
Treatment Waste
Flue Gas
Desulfurization
Bottom Ash
Disposal
Ply Ash Disposal0
Total
Stream
Content6
o
a
s
i
-
i
i
Lurgi
Wet-
Solids0
(tpd)
99
27
21
16
600
2,744
362
3,869
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
20
13
11
8
240
2,111
289
2,692
Hater
in
Solids
(gpd)
13
2.2
1.8
1.3 :
60
106
12
196.3
Synthane
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
117
24
30
27
189
627
2,400
3,414
I5ry-
Solids
(tpd)
23
12
16
13
76
430
1,920
i,540
Water
in
Solids
(gpd!
16
2
2.6
2.2
19
24
80
145.8
Synthoil
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
74
9 .
18
44
—
6,152
~
6,297
Dry-
Solids
{tpd)
' 14
4
9
22
—
4,732
—
4,781
Water
in
Solids
(gp<3)
10
0.7
1.4
3.2
—
237
~
252.3
3,000 MWe
Wet-
Solids
(tpd)
—
2.3
~
217
6,554
1,033
3,971
11,777
Dry-
Solids
(tpd)
—
1.1
—
87
2,621
793
3,174
6,676
Water
in
Solids
(gpd)
--
0.2
~
21
656
40
133
850.2
Ul
00
01
gpd = gallons per day
MWe = megawatts-electric
tpd = tons per day
^ater Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming. Figures were adjusted to correspond to a load factor of 100 percent. See Appendix B.
s - soluble inorganic; i - insoluble inorganic; o - organic, insoluble.
cDry electrostatic precipitators are assumed to remove the coal fly ash from the flue gas which is then sprayed with water for transport
via screw conveyor.
-------
The calculated residuals will be produced in several streams
but primarily in two main process streams. The condensate treat-
ment sludge stream will be 80-percent water; the remainder will
be primarily insoluble organic waste composed of the dirty plant
condensate. This stream will be sent to water treatment where
sludge is produced in biotreatment. The other process stream
will be boiler demineralizer waste, which is primarily soluble
inorganic waste with 50-percent moisture. For this plant, 5.3
tons of wet sludge will be produced per million gallons of water
evaporated.
Cooling water treatment waste will be composed of a pri-
marily soluble inorganic fraction and a primarily insoluble
inorganic fraction.
Flue gas desulfurization will be accomplished by the wet
limestone process in which hydrated calcium sulfate and sulfite
(CaS042H20 and CaSC>3%H20) are the two major products. The quan-
tities of solid waste generated were calculated by assuming a
40-percent solids concentration.
Bottom ash is primarily insoluble inorganic waste. Dry-ash
furnaces that use pulverized coal are assumed. In these furnaces
20 percent of the ash leaves as bottom ash and the remaining 80
percent leaves as fly ash (except in the Synthoil process in
which all of the ash is assumed to come out as bottom ash in the
hydrogen plant).
B. Municipalities
The wastewater generated by the population increases asso-
ciated with energy development is shown in Table 10-19. 'Rural
populations are assumed to use individual, on-site waste facil-
ities (septic tanks and drain fields), and the urban population
will require waste treatment facilities. Current treatment
practices in affected communities are shown in Table 10-20.
Based on current treatment facility capacities, new facil-
ities will be required in Colstrip before 1980, in Forsyth
around 1990, and in Miles City before 2000. These facil-
ities must use the "best practicable" waste treatment technology
to conform to 1983 standards and must allow recycling or zero
discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 standards.! The 1985 standard
could be met by using effluents for industrial process make-up
water or for irrigating local farmland. Policy issues concerning
municipal sewage treatment are discussed in Section 14.3.4.
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 § §
101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
586
-------
TABLE 10-19:
INCREASED WASTEWATER FROM
POPULATION GROWTH3-
(million gallons per day)
Location
Forsyth
Colstrip
Miles City
Billings
1980
0.1
0.175
0.025
0.04
1990
0.38
0.30
0.065
0.11
2000
0.1
0.56
0.23
0-36
Above the 1975 base level, based
on 100 gallons per capita per day.
Rural population is assumed to use
septic tanks, so no wastewater is
present. Only growth caused by
energy development considered.
10.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
Between the present and 1980, the only activity scheduled is
the beginning of the construction of the 3,000 megawatts-electric
(MWe) power plant and the opening of the associated coal mine.
1. Surface Mines
The opening of the surface coal mine for the power plant
will cause disturbances of aquifer systems in the Tongue River
Member of the Fort Union Formation. Since the source of the
coal, the Rosebud seam, is a large aquifer in the Tongue River
Member, mine dewatering will probably be required in most areas.
This dewatering may cause aquifer depletion in the relatively
low-productivity Tongue River Member. As a result, water
levels in nearby wells will be lowered, and some of the springs
and seeps on the hillsides may dry up. In addition, the base
flow of some of the streams may be reduced or eliminated.
The opening of the coal mine will have some impact on the
local surface water. The effect will generally be a result of
vegetation removal and soil disturbance. The silt load will be
increased in local streams until runoff can be controlled by
ponding and settling. Until other uses develop, ponded runoff
will be used for dust control and revegetation, with the excess
being evaporated. There may also be fugitive spills of lubri-
cants and fuels either in bulk from a storage site or from
587
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TABLE 10-20: WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO3
Town
Forsyth
Miles City
Colstrip
Billings
Type of Treatment
2-cell stabilization
8.18 acres
3-cell stabilization
3-cell stabilization
New secondary treat-
ment plant September
1976
Design
Capacity
(MMgpd)
0.54
1.18
0.09
Present
Flow
(MMgpd)
0.27
1.02
0.09
Per-
Capita
Flow
100
106
90
Future Plans
Abandon present
facility — use
oxidation ditch
and digestion
Upgrade operation
of existing system
None
Ul
oo
CD
MMgpd = million gallons per day
aLetter from Department of Health and Environmental Services, State of Montana, 1976.
-------
machine maintenance. These petroleum products will not readily
degrade, and will contaminate runoff.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Although the construction activities associated with the
power plant and coal mine are not expected to have an appreciable
impact on any groundwater systems on the scenario areas, they
will remove vegetation and disturb the soil. Both these activi-
ties affect surface-water quality, primarily in the form of
sediment load increases. Additionally, the equipment used
during construction will require petroleum storage and mainte-
nance facilities. Other areas will be required for storage of
materials for the concrete batch plant and other construction-
related activities. All these facilities will contaminate run-
off. Runoff control techniques will be instituted at all the
potential contaminant locations. Runoff will be gathered in a
common pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. As the supply
of water to this pond is very intermittent, evaporation may claim
most of the water, although some may be used for dust control at
aggregate storage sites.
3. Municipal Facilities
Of the 1,456 acre-ft/yr of water required by the population
increases associated with the Colstrip scenario, 245 acre-ft/yr
for the town of Colstrip will come from the Tongue River Member
aquifers. The remainder will come from the Yellowstone
River to satisfy needs in Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings (see
Table 10-12).
The municipal growth at the Colstrip scenario will be
restricted to expansion of existing communities, most of which
have municipal sewage treatment facilities.
Septic tanks may pose a significant hazard to groundwater
quality in local Tongue River Member aquifers. The projected
population increase at Colstrip for the scenario will increase
the magnitude of the hazard to groundwater quality.
Miles City, Forsyth, and Billings must increase their waste-
water treatment facility capacities to meet the expected needs.
As shown in Tables 10-18 and 10-20, wastewater treatment require-
ments will exceed capacity at Colstrip. Facilities must be
expanded or treatment plant effluent will be reduced in quality.
Also, treatment levels must be upgraded to meet the requirements
of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) guidelines.
This combined effect will be felt most acutely within the smaller
communities, and some financial hardship may result.
589
-------
B. Impacts to 1990
Construction of the 3,000-MWe, coal-fired power plant will
continue and its associated coal mine will be opened during the
1980-1985 period. The power plant will go on-line in 1985. In
addition, construction will begin on the Lurgi high-Btu (British
thermal unit) gasification plant and its associated coal mine
after 1985 so that this plant can begin operation by 1990.
1. Coal Mines
The strip mine for the 3,000-MWe power plant will be oper-
ating at full capacity by 1985, and a new mine for the Lurgi
gasification plant will be opened so that mining can begin in
1990. These two mines will disturb local aquifers in the Tongue
River Member and surface waters as described for the preceding '
decade. Since the Rosebud seam is a significant aquifer in the
Colstrip area, mine dewatering will probably be necessary. This
dewatering may lead to local aquifer depletion and a resultant
-lowering of water levels in nearby wells. Springs and seeps on
hillsides may dry up, and these may be a significant loss to the
base flow of Rosebud Creek. The water from mine dewatering
operations will be pumped to the power plant and used as make-up
water for cooling towers or will be used for mine operations and
for revegetation of spoil material.
Shallow bedrock aquifers in the coal and overburden will be
lost in the mine area. Replacing the overburden will not neces-
sarily reestablish aquifers because homogenization of the over-
burden will change its porosity and permeability. If acid and
trace element contaminants are present, they could move, laterally
and appear as part of the discharge of springs and seeps, thus
contaminating these important sources of water for wildlife.
Alluvial aquifers along Rosebud Creek may also be contaminated by
water from the strip mine, either by water recharging directly
from polluted bedrock aquifers or by surface water from contami-
nated seeps and springs.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
Only the 3,000-MWe power plant will be operating in the
1980-1990 decade. No appreciable impacts on groundwater systems
are expected from the construction of the Lurgi plant. The power
plant will draw water from the Yellowstone River at a rate of about
42,000 acre-ft/yr, which is about 0.48 percent of the average
river flow at Miles City upstream of the confluence with the
Powder River (see Table 10-12).
Runoff will be increased as a result of construction activi-
ties at the Lurgi facility. These effects will be similar to
those stated previously for power plant construction. Runoff
will be decreased at the power plant because the facility,
590
-------
coal-storage piles, and other areas likely to contaminate runoff
will have runoff control. This system will collect the runoff
and divert it to one of the on-site holding ponds.
The disposal sites for several effluents from the power
plant will pose a water quality hazard for shallow aquifer systems.
Fluids from liquid waste disposal ponds (sanitary effluent,
cooling tower blowdown, etc.) may infiltrate through leaky or
ineffective pond liners and enter groundwater systems, thus
lowering the quality of the water.
3. Municipal Facilities
About 4,920 acre-ft/yr of additional water will be required
by population increases caused by the scenario at Colstrip (Table
10-17). Of this amount, 420 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from
groundwater sources in the town of Colstrip. This quantity of
water, which is equivalent to about 260 gpm, may begin to deplete
the local shallow aquifers. Several wells will be required, and
local water levels may be lowered.
This scenario assumes that the town of Colstrip will build a
municipal sewage treatment plant between 1985 and 1990. Until
then, the septic tank and drainfield systems will continue to
degrade the water quality of local shallow aquifers. The popula-
tion influx during the 1980-1990 decade will add considerably to
the groundwater quality problems. Much of the water taken from
local groundwater supplies will be returned to the shallow
aquifers through the septic tanks, but such recycling may have
serious public health implications. The natural renovating
capacity (primarily filtration by sands and adsorption by clays)
of the Tongue River Member may be exceeded with increased septic
tank use.
Although the water usage of the municipalities relying on
surface water will increase, the amount demanded will still be
small compared to the total flow of the Yellowstone. Water
requirements for municipalities will increase as more construc-
tion workers migrate into the area. Forsyth will have the
greatest increase, about 4,250 acre-ft/yr above the 1975 level.
Municipalities must also treat an increased wastewater load as
shown in Table 10-18. Forsyth will have the greatest increase
and will exceed the capacity of its current facilities. Because
provisions of the FWPCA restrict pollutant discharge after 1983,
the communities affected by growth have the additional problem of
effluent disposal. Alternate disposal methods, such as selling
the effluent to the energy conversion facilities for use as
irrigation water for mine reclamation, will be sought. There-
fore, no appreciable impact is likely in local surface waters.
591
-------
C. Impacts to 2000
The Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant will go into operation
in 1990. Construction of the Synthane high-Btu gasification
plant and associated coal mine will begin shortly after 1990, and
the plant will begin operating in 1995. Finally, construction
will begin after 1995 on the Synthoil coal liquefaction plant and
its associated coal mine, and the plant will begin operation in
2000.
1. Coal Mines
The mines for the remaining two facilities of the Colstrip
scenario (the Synthane and the Synthoil plants) will be opened
and in operation by 1999. The effects of these mines, in con-
junction with the increased size of the first two mines, will
accentuate the effects outlined for the previous decade. The new
mine openings and old mine expansion will have a significant
effect on local surface runoff. The area of land effectively
removed from the various local drainage basins is nearly 35,000
acres. This area may decrease surface-water runoff by as much as
1,350 acre-ft/yr. As a result, the intermittent streams in the
mine areas could have significantly different flow patterns.
There will be a greater possibility that contaminated groundwater
from the mine areas will begin flowing into Armells, Sarpy, and
Rosebud Creeks (see Figure 10-3 for stream locations). Although
the composition of the inflow and its effect on surface-water
quality will vary with location, some noticeable stream water
quality changes will probably occur during the scenario period.
2. Energy Conversion Facilities
The groundwater and surface-water impacts of the power plant
and the Lurgi plant will continue as described for the preceding
decade. The impacts of the Synthane plant are expected to be
quite similar but additive to those of the two plants already in
existence.
The combined facilities will be withdrawing about 59,600
acre-ft of water annually during this decade. This is approxi-
mately 0.7 percent of the average annual flow and 18 percent of
the minimum flow of record in the Yellowstone River at Miles City
upstream of the confluence with the Powder River. This
withdrawal will probably not have a significant impact on the
Yellowstone River. '
The effluent generated by the Synthane plant will not be
greatly different from that generated at the power plant and
Lurgi gasification plant. Thus, the only changes in the pre-
viously described impacts on local aquifer systems and surface
water should be minor increases.
592
-------
3. Municipal Facilities
By the year 2000, the town of Colstrip will withdraw about
780 acre-ft/yr (480 gpm) from local groundwater resources. After
1990, the town will be using a municipal sewage treatment facil-
ity; thus, none of this water will be returned to shallow aqui-
fers through septic tank systems. The result will likely be
depletion of local shallow aquifers as described for the pre-
ceding decade.
A total of 13,930 acre-ft/yr of surface water above the 1975
level will be required by Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings.
This amount of water should not significantly affect flow
in the Yellowstone River. Wastewater treatment plant capacity
must be expanded from the 1975 base level by a factor of 10 for
Miles City and Forsyth, and the capacity at Colstrip must be
tripled. Thus, the communities will probably have substantial
problems in funding and constructing new treatment plants on an
appropriate schedule, and package treatment will probably be used
as a stop-gap measure. Because pollutants from municipal facil-
ities will not be discharged into surface streams, there will not
be any significant impacts on local watersheds.
A. Impacts After 2000
All four coal conversion facilities will continue to operate
after 2000, and their impacts will be much the same as those
described for earlier decades.
i
The mines will continue to have long-range impacts on
groundwater systems after mine operations cease, despite the
reclamation measures that will be undertaken for restoration of
surface uses of the land. The overburden that is returned to the
mine will have aquifer characteristics quite different from the
original, undisturbed overburden.
The total surface-water withdrawal from the Yellowstone will
be about 83,000 acre-ft/yr. This quantity is equivalent to about
1.1 percent of the average annual flow and about 12 percent of
the extreme low flow of record in the Yellowstone River at Miles
City above the confluence with the Powder River. The amount of
water being used is significant during low-flow periods, and the
effect on the Yellowstone River may be appreciable.
The evaporative pond dikes which have been maintained during
plant operation will receive no maintenance after shutdown.
These dikes could lose their protective vegetation, erode, and
eventually be breached. Subsequently, the materials within the
pond site will erode and enter the surface-water system. The
salt concentrations may be high enough to cause damage to local
593
-------
aquatic ecosystems. The addition of trace materials and solids
from the ash disposal and tailings ponds will have a similar
adverse effect.
Population associated with the scenario facilities will
remain relatively constant after 2000. The population increases
for all the scenario facilities will likely be permanent; thus,
the water requirements will continue indefinitely. The problem
of potential aquifer depletion caused by groundwater withdrawals
at the town of Colstrip is likely to continue.
Since septic tank and drainfield systems will have been
replaced by municipal sewage treatment plants by 2000, no con-
tinued threat to groundwater quality is expected from septic tank
sources. However, infiltration of contaminated urban runoff will
continue, and will increase if the size of the urbanized areas
increases. This contaminated recharge water will continue to
lower the quality of groundwater after 2000.
10.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts
The coal mines will have an impact on both surface water and
groundwater in the Colstrip area. A significant portion of the
local groundwater may be removed by mine dewatering activities.
This depletion could decrease the groundwater supply to surface
streams and to springs and seeps. After mining has been com-
pleted, the mine area will be reclaimed and revegetated. However, the
previous aquifer characteristics will not be reestablished.
Because of this factor, it is unlikely that spring and seep flows
will return to their previous conditions. Surface runoff will be
affected by a change in infiltration rate in the reclaimed'areas.
Depressions that will hold water may be created in the recon-
touring process, and these may be beneficial both to groundwater
recharge and wildlife.
The energy conversion facilities will require about 83,000
acre-ft of water annually. This value is cumulative over all the
energy conversion facilities and their support facilities. The
local impact of surface-water withdrawal on water availability
appears not to be a major issue for the Yellowstone River except
during extreme low-flow periods. The groundwater withdrawals
caused mainly by mine dewatering may cause depletion of flow to
springs and seeps.
Runoff will be increased during facilities construction, and
although it will diminish after the facilities are completed, it
will still be measurably higher than before construction. Trap-
ping of this runoff to insure against water quality deterioration
could decrease the flows in local streams.
The plant effluents will be discharged to diked evaporative
ponds. After the energy conversion plants are decommissioned,
594
-------
the dikes may erode and allow the internal solids to wash into
the natural streams. Additionally, pond liner integrity may fail
to provide seepage protection after a period of time. Degrada-
tion of both surface water and groundwater could result from lack
of maintenance of the evaporative ponds.
The impact of energy development on municipal water facili-
ties can be significant, depending on the size of the communities
involved. Larger capacity treatment facilities will be required
for water supply and wastewater treatment. The municipal water
supply requirements will not put a great demand on the surface
water resources. Wastewater effluent may be recycled to indus-
tries, minimizing effluent impacts. Otherwise, some form of land
application would be a likely alternative.
Identification and description of several water impacts has
been limited by available information. Missing data includes
detailed information about process streams (needed to identify
the composition of discharges to settling ponds) and about the
rate of movement of toxic materials through pond liners (needed
to estimate the portions that might reach shallow aquifers).
More quantitative information will be sought during the remainder
of the project so that these potential impacts can be properly
evaluated.
10.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
10.4.1 Introduction
,The primary area of social, economic, and political effects
in the Colstrip scenario will be Rosebud County, Montana and, to
a lesser extent, the cities of Billings and Miles City. Most of
the effects anticipated will result either directly or indirectly
from population changes.
10.4.2 Demography and Social Infrastructure
Rosebud County covers 5,037 square miles and had a 1975
population of approximately 8,600 people. The resulting popula-
tion density of 1.69 persons per square miles is low in compari-
son with the 1970 Montana average of 4.77 persons per square
mile. The county's population has increased since 1970 after a
period of relative stability; most of the growth has occurred in
Colstrip and Forsyth (see Table 10-21). In 1970, the Northern
Cheyenne Indian Reservation in the southern portion of Rosebud
County accounted for 1,700 people or about 28 percent of the
county's population.
Agriculture dominates the Rosebud County economy, accounting
for 33 percent of all earned income in 1972 (the average for
Montana was 19.7 percent). The average size ranch or farm was
8,626 acres in 1974. The proportion of farm income from ranching
595
-------
TABLE 10-21:
POPULATION OF ROSEBUD COUNTY,
COLSTRIP AND FORSYTE/ 1940-1975
Year
1975a
1974
1973
1970
1960
1950
1945
Rosebud County
8,500
6,959
6,032
6,187
6,570
6,477
Colstrip
3,000
2,650
1,800
422
439
553
b
Forsyth
2,500
2,950
2,700
1,873
2,032
1,906
1,696
Sources: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census. County and City Data Book; A
Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972;
University of Montana, Institute for Social
Science Research. A Comparative Case Study
of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way
of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern
Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula,
Mont.: University of Montana, Institute for
Social Science Research, 1974; Westinghouse
Electric Corporation, Environmental Systems.
Colstrip Generation and Transmission
Project; Applicant's Environmental Analysis.
1973; Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource
Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts
and Federal Assistance in Energy Development
Impacted Communities in Region VIII. Denver,
Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, 1975.
Estimated.
(livestock income) is higher than the state average: 75.9 per-
cent compared to 63.6 percent. (The distribution of employment
by industry in 1970 is shown in Table 10-22.) However, recent
development related to power plant construction has altered this
pattern by adding substantially to the construction employment
proportion.
596
-------
TABLE 10-22:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN ROSEBUD
COUNTY, 1970
Industry
Total Civilian Labor Force
Total Employed
Agriculture
Contract Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Services
Education
Government
Other
Total Unemployed
Number
2,346
2,238
497
116
175
316
81
257
553
243
108
Percentage
100
95.4
22.2
5.2
7.8
14.1
3.6
11.5
24.7
10.9
4.6
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census. County and City Data Book; A
Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972, p. 294.
As shown in Figure 10-6, the county's road network is more
developed in an east-west direction, focusing on Billings 100
miles to the west and Miles City to the east. Both the Burlington
Northern (formerly Northern Pacific) and the Chicago, Milwaukee,
St. Paul, and Pacific Railroads cross the county eastward,
running through Forsyth. A spur line runs south through Colstrip.
Rosebud County is governed by a board of three elected
county commissioners. There is currently no county charter, but
one is being developed by a study commission elected in 1975. A
county planning board was created in January 1974, and a master
plan was to be completed by late 1976. Law enforcement consists
of one sheriff with deputies in Forsyth (the county seat),
Colstrip, Ashland, and Birney.
Colstrip is an unincorporated community owned by Western
Energy Company, a subsidiary of Montana Power Company.1 Most
basic municipal services, such as streets, water and sewer
facilities, have been provided by the company.2 TheNcounty
• Colstrip has been a company-owned town since it was founded
by Northern Pacific Railroad \in 1923. It was sold to Montana
Power in 1959.
o
Current sewage treatment facilities consist of septic tanks
and drainfield systems.
597
-------
iBi* •:/
FIGURE 10-6: TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
ROSEBUD COUNTY AREA
IN THE
598
-------
planning board has taken an active role to assure that the town
of Colstrip meets all county zoning and building requirements.
A town council has been formed to provide resident input to
Western Energy Company planners. There were no full-time physi-
cians or dentists in Colstrip in 1975; since then, a clinic
facility has been opened with a full-time staff.
Forsyth, the county seat and only incorporated town in
Rosebud County, is governed by a mayor and four councilmen.
There is no planning department, and most of the planning is done
by the city through the use of consultants. Forsyth has both
city-owned and operated water and sewage treatment systems, and
expansion of the water system is now under way.
10.4.3 Population Impacts
The first major impact on the Rosebud County area from the
scenario will be from construction workers associated with the
power plant complex beginning in 1977 (Table 10-23). Construc-
tion activity in the scenario is scheduled to end in 2000,
although employment in construction is minimal in 1985 and 1990.1
The population estimates explicitly take into account the major
market centers of eastern Montana, Billings and Miles City, as
well as settlements in Rosebud County (Figure 10-7).
The projected population of Rosebud County is expected to
increase more than three-fold to over 27,000 by 2000.2 The
peak population occurs in 1993 in all parts of the county; a
slightly smaller short-term peak occurs in 1988. Ashland will
receive the most severe impact because of its current small size;
its 1988 peak is nearly 10 times its present size of 500. Forsyth and
Colstrip remain over 5,000 population after 1986 with occasional
peaks during construction activity. The projections reported
here effectively consider Colstrip as more similar to other
towns. However, its past and present ownership by Western Energy
Company could preclude additional population from settling there.
If Colstrip is incorporated by the mid-1980's, the populations in
Table 10-22 are more realistic.
Population changes were estimated by means of an economic
base model, the employment data from Table 10-23, and the multi-
pliers in Tables 10-24 and 10-25.
2Because the Northern Cheyenne Reservation is not the site
of coal development in this scenario, estimates of Indian employ-
ment are difficult to make. About 200-300 Indians may be directly
employed, and out-migration is likely to be slowed. The Northern
Cheyenne population is included in the "other" category in Table
10-26.
599
-------
TABLE 10-23:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION
EMPLOYMENT FOR COLSTRIP
SCENARIO, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Construction
40
420
900
1,350
2,280
2,750
2,200
890
70
820
2,890
4,890
2,830
70
820
2,890
4,920
3,090
1,010
2,070
2,380
1,730
640
0
Operation
0
0
0
0
0
110
380
490
990
990
990
1,260
1,260
2,130
2,130
2,130
2,400
2,400
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,540
4,180
5,100
Total
40
420
900
1,350
2,280
2,860
2,580
1,380
1,060
1,810
3,880
6,150
4,090
2,200
2,950
5,020
7,320
5,490
4,280
5,340
5,650
5,270
4,820
5,100
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy
Supply Planning Model. San Francisco,
Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
600
-------
30 -i
20 -
CO
:D
o
15 -
o 10
:D
o_
o
Q_
Rosebud
County
Forsyth
Colstrip
Others
Ashland
i i I i I
1975 1980 1985 1990 S995 2000
FIGURE 10-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY,
1975-2000
601
-------
TABLE 10-24:
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
MULTIPLIERS FOR COLSTRIP
SCENARIO POPULATION ESTIMATES
Service/Basic Employment Multipliers3
Location
Rosebud County
Miles City
Billings
(Regional Total)
Construction
0.2
0.1
0.15
(0.45)
Operation
0.5
0.15
0.25
(0.90)
Population Employee Multipliers13
Construction 2.05
Operation 2.3
Service 2
These values were chosen after examining
several studies concerned with population
impacts in the Northern Great Plains including
Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal Develop-
ment in Eastern Montana. Boaeman, Mont.:
University of Montana, Joint Water Resources
Research Center, 1974; White, Randle V. The
Decker-Birney-Ashland Area and Coal Develop-
ment} An Economic Study. Missoula, Mont.:
University of Montana, Bureau of Business and
Economic Research, 1975; Montana, Department
of Natural Resources and Conservation, Energy
Planning Division. Final Environmental Impact
Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating
Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilo-volt Transmission Lines
and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.:
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and
Conservation, 1974, pp. 120-131; U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama-
tion and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.
Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development
on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six
Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern
Great Plains Resources Program, 1974; Univer-
sity of Denver, Research Institute.. The
Social, Economic, and Land Use Impacts of a
Fort Union Coal Processing Complex, Final'
Report, for U.S., Energy Research and Develop-
ment Administration. Springfield, Va.:
National Technical Information Service, 1975.
FE-1526, pp. 29-49; Erickson, Ronald E.
"Social Impacts of Coal Gasification or a
Practical Joke," in Clark, Wilson F., ed.
Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field
Symposium, Vol. 4: Social Impact Section.
Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College,
1975, pp. 451-53; Johnson, Maxine C., and
Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The
Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and
an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to
Handle Further Expansion. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of
Minerals Policy Development, 1975.
Adapted from Mountain West Research. Con-
struction Worker Profile. Final Report.
Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Com-
mission, 1976. These multipliers are
aggregates which balance such factors as
single-person households, large families,
and working spouses.
602
-------
TABLE 10-25:
ASSUMED POPULATION ATTRACTION OR CAPTURE
RATES USED TO ALLOCATE POPULATION WITHIN
ROSEBUD COUNTY
Energy Population
1975-1985
1986-1990
1991-2000
Service Population
1975-1985
1986-1990
1991-2000
Forsyth
.40
.20
.30
.75
.40
.40
Colstrip
.40
.20
.30
.15
.20
.20
Ashland
.10
.40
.20
.10
.30
.20
Other
.10
.20
.20
.10
.20
TABLE 10-26:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY,
1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Rosebud
County
8,600
11,620
13,530
14,850
14,700
12,740
12,690
14,260
18,430
23,200
19,680
17,160
18,710
22,860
27,660
24,500
23,350
25,540
26,270
25,910
25,770
27,170
Forsyth
2,500
3,820
4,690
5,290
5,270
4,440
4,510
4,880
5,870
7.010
6,260
5,830
6,320
7,640
9,170
8,200
7,900
8,600
8,840
8,750
8,750
9,240
Colstrip
3,000
4,080
4,770
5,230
5,130
4,380
4,280
4,610
5,460
6,430
5,740
5,250
5,690
6,870
8,220
7,310
6,910
7,530
7,740
7,630
7,550
,7,910
Ashland
500
790
980
1,100
1 , 090
890
880
1,450
3,020
4,810
3,400
2,340
2,640
3,470
4,420
3,790
3,550
3,990
4,130
4,050
4,020
4.350
Oth erb
2,600
2,930
3,090
3,230
3,210
3,030
3,020
3,320
4,080
4.950
4,280
3,740
4,060
4,880
5,850
5,200
4,990
5,420
5,560
5,480
5,450
5.670
aGiven the development in this scenario, the population
increases are within a ±25 percent range of expected
conditions. For example. Rosebud County's population
in 2000 should be between 22,500 and 31,800.
bOther includes a rural population of about 1,800
throughout the period, as well as townsites such as
Rosebud, Lame Deer, and Birney-
603
-------
Outside Rosebud County, Miles City and Billings will receive
a noticeable amount of service industry growth stemming from
wholesale and retail sales to Rosebud County residents.1 Miles
City, east of Forsyth, should grow in population by 5,800 or 62
percent by the year 2000. Expected growth in the Billings area
of 17,800 is only about 27 percent of its current population.
The bulk of the overall population increase from the scenario is
expected to take place within Rosebud County where nearly all of
the cyclical impact occurs.
Age-sex breakdowns of the projected population of Rosebud
County help to indicate the housing and educational needs of the
area. From the county's 1970 age-sex distributions, new immi-
grants were assumed to fall into categories derived from studies
of energy-impacted communities.3 The resulting age-sex distribu-
tion (Table 10-27) shows particular increases in the 25-34 age
groups and a high proportion of school-age children through 1985.
A disparity between males and females should diminish throughout
the energy development period.
10-4-4 Housing and School Impacts
Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by
employing the information in Tables 10-26 and 10-27 and by
assuming that the 6-13 age group is elementary school enrollment
and the 14-16 age group comprises secondary school enrollment
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 61-69; Polzin,
Paul E. Water Use and Coal Development in Eastern Montana.
Bozeman, Mont.: University of Montana, Joint Water Resources
Research Center, 1974.
2
When construction employment does not carry over from year
to year, the employees, their families, and one-half of the
associated service population is assumed to leave the area.
Given the large amount of energy construction activity which
might occur in the West, this assumption is,as reasonable as its
alternatives.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 33-38.
604
-------
TABLE 10-27:
PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR
ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000
Age
Females
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Males
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975
.051
.039
.102
.057
.035
.025
.029
.092
.064
.494
.050
.043
.113
.059
.027
.020
.038
.095
.060
iir'""
.516
1980
.037
.035
.102
.090
.043
.027
.023
.072
.051
.480
.036
.041
.118
.104
.042
.026
.029
.074
-049
.520
1985
.033
.031
.098
.113
-042
.027
.023
.075
.055
.496
.033
.033
.105
.115
.037
.024
.029
.076
.052
.504
1990
.024
.026
.095
.143
.045
.028
.020
.066
.050
.498
.023
.028
.100
.144
.042
.026
.024
.067
.049
.502
1995
.018
.024
.094
.158
.048
.029
.018
.059
.046
.494
.017
.026
.100
.163
.047
.029
.020
.059
.045
.506
2000
.016
.022
.094
.172
.048
.030
.017
.056
.045
.499
-015
.027
.096
.172
.047
.028
.019
.057
.044
.501
Source: Table 10-32 and data adapted from Mountain West
Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report.
Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 33-38.
(Table 10-28, Figure 10-8). The demand for housing is twice the
1975 level by the mid-1980's, then doubles again during the peak
construction activity around 1993 (Table 10-28). At least 600
extra homes would be needed for peak population above the year
2000 level'.
In accordance with the experience of other energy-impacted
areas, much of the housing for development workers will be pro-
vided by mobile homes. About 39 percent of Rosebud County's
housing in 1974 was made up of mobile homes, up from about 9.5
605
-------
TABLE 10-28:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN ROSEBUD COUNTY/
1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1983
1988
1993
1995
2000
Households3
2,510
3,960
4,470
7,330
8,900
7,680
8,300
Elementary*3
1,560
1,700
2,220
3,090
3,480
2,760
3,070
Secondary0
510
600
760
1,020
1,130
890
980
Estimated from number of males aged 22 and
over, representing an aggregate of single-person
households and families. Estimates should be
seen as medians in a 25-percent error range.
T_
Ages 6-13, resulting in somewhat low estimates;
the upper end of the range should be 20-25
percent above these figures.
Ages 14-16, resulting in somewhat low
estimates? see b above.
percent in 1970.-^ More than fifty percent of the newcomers will
be forced to live in mobile homes, and this percentage will be
higher at Colstrip than at Forsyth.2 These trends were begun in
connection with construction activity on Colstrip power plant
Units 1 and 2, and will continue in the scenario development
here. Any single- and multi-family units are likely to be
located primarily at town sites within the county, although only
Forsyth and Colstrip currently provide municipal water service.
Thus, development in the Ashland vicinity must rely on septic
tanks.
School enrollment impacts will be relatively minor through
1983, with a 42-percent elementary increase and a 49-percent
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Devel-
opment. 1975 Situation Statement^ Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 65-74.
2
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Com-
munity Report; Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana. Washington, D.C.;
Old West Regional Commission, 1976.
606
-------
40 -i
en
•o
c.
o
3
2 30-
c
0>
I 20 -
2
c
Lxl
| 10 ^
o
0)
o ~
Households
Elementary
Secondary
1975 I960 1985 1990
I I
1995 2000
FIGURE 10-8:
PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY, AND
SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN ROSEBUD COUNTY,
1975-2000
607
-------
secondary increase over 1975 levels (Table 10-28). From 1983 to
1993, enrollments will nearly double at both school levels. The
enrollments peak in 1993, and the 2000 enrollments are very close
to the 1988 levels. This suggests that temporary facilities
could accommodate the 1990's construction bulge at much less
expense than permanent structures. About 220 new classrooms will
be needed for the 1993 peak, which is about 25 more than will be
needed for the 2000 enrollment (Table 10-29). Capital expendi-
tures for new schools should be below $6.5 million, especially if
modular-type classrooms are used for peak enrollments; annual
operating expenditures should double (in constant dollars) by
1993.1 The distribution of these needs within the county is
suggested by the population distribution in Table 10-26.
10-4.5 Land-Use Impacts
The energy facilities involved in this scenario will occupy
about 54 square miles of Rosebud County, or just over 1 percent
of the county's total land area. Land currently leased for coal
as of July 1974 covers 3.86 percent of the county, indicating a
potentially greater number of surface mines.2 Energy-related
population increases and resultant urban development will require
a relatively negligible portion of land and will be located
almost entirely at existing towns. Zoning and subdivision regu-
lations in the county will prevent the rural settlement scatter
that is occurring elsewhere in the West.
The actual change in land use will be drastic _in some local
areas. Over 92 percent of Rosebud County is cropland, grazing
land, or woodland, and any coal mining activity would necessarily
reduce the agricultural acreage. Recreation activities, espe-
cially hunting, will probably increase along with the expected
population growth, involving conflicts between landowners and
those who use the area for recreational purposes. Finally,
These estimates may be compared with U.S., Department of
the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisci-
plinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Manor Coal Development
on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties.
Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974,
pp. 230-252.
2
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Devel-
opment. 1975 Situation Statement: Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 46-47.
608
-------
TABLE.10-29: SCHOOL FINANCE CONDITIONS FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY DISTRICTS, 1975-2000
(In 1975 dollars)
Enrollment Increase
over 1975
Classrooms
(at 21 per room)
Capital Expenditure
Increase over 1975
(millions of dollars)3
Annual Operating
Expenditure Increase
(millions of dollars)*1
1975
2,070
96
1980
2,300
110
0.58
2.88
1983
2,980
142
2.28
3.73
1988
4,110
196
5.10
5.14
1993
4,610
220
6.35
5.76
1995
3,650
• 174
3.95
4.56
2000
4,050
193
4.95
5.06
o
vo
An average of $2,500 per pupil space was obtained from Froomkin, Joseph, J.R. Endriss, and R.W.
Stump. Population, Enrollment and Costs of Elementary and Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-81,
Report to the President's Commission on School Finance. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1971. This figure is a high estimate where modular or other inexpensive construction is
used.
Based on an average of $1,250 per pupil per year. See Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconotnic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and
Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Region VIII. Denver, Colo.:
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
-------
additional land bordering on coal mining areas may be rendered
unsuitable for grazing as a result of odors, pollution, dust, and
noise.1
10.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
Rosebud County's economy currently is dominated by agricul-
ture, especially ranching which accounted for 33 percent of all
1972 earnings.2 Coal mining and conversion activities will
undoubtedly shift the major portion of income to the extraction
and utilities sectors, although most of the land will remain
agricultural. Local service and government employment will also
expand, especially at Forsyth, the county seat. Based on new
employment opportunities in Rosebud County, the overall income
distribution will change considerably over the course of the
scenario (Table 10-30; Figure 10-9). Largely because of the
higher paying jobs in energy industries, the $15,000-20,000
category should expand considerably. However, both the distribu-
tion and the median income are strongly influenced by construc-
tion activity, as evidenced by the up-and-down effect during the
1980-1990 period. In addition, short-term inflation will reduce
purchasing power at times, a fact disguised by the constant dol-
lar computation.
The scenario energy developments will result in local
business increases similar to but substantially greater than the
increases resulting from the recent construction of Colstrip Units 1
and 2. However, Billings and Miles City should receive much of the
wholesale and retail expansion from Rosebud County population
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement
on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt
Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.:
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974,
pp. 767-770.
2
' U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
610
-------
TABLE 10-30:
PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR
ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
Less than 4,000
4,000-5,999
6,000-7,999
8,000-9,999
10,000-11,999
12,000-14,999
15,000-24,999
25, 000 -over
Median Household
Income
1975
.202
.117
.084
.107
.166
.113
.196
.066
9,840
1980
.130
.078
.055
.080
.101
.112
.334
.109
13,490
1985
.148
.090
.066
.095
.133
.120
.290
.079
11,790
1990
.117
.074
.062
.090
.110
.123
.342
.082
13,150
1995
.090
.059
.050
.081
.105
.124
.396
.096
14,780
2000
.086
.058
.050
.086
.109
.128
.399
.085
14,600
Source: Data for 1975 are taken from U.S., Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census. Household Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's,
Cities and Counties: 1970. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1973, p. 39, and inflated to 1975 dollars. Income distribu-
tions for construction worker, operation worker, and service worker
households are from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker
Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commis-
sion, 1976, p. 50, assuming that "other newcomers" are operation
employees and that new service worker households have the same income
distribution as long-time residents. The income data on Colstrip and
Forsyth combined closely follow the data for currently affected
communities in the West. Colstrip residents tend to have higher
incomes than Forsyth residents, largely because the former are nearly
all employed by Western Energy Company, whereas Forsyth has a mix of
employers.
growth^ (Table 10-31, Figure 10-10) . Since Montana has no sales taxes,
the economic benefits to these market centers will be primarily indi-
rect, coming in the form of increased employment and new businesses.
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, p. 69; Johnson,
Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal
Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Com-
munity's Ability to Handle Further Expansion. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy
Development, 1975, p. 56; Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal
Development in Eastern Montana. Bozeman, Mont.: University of
Montana, Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974.
611
-------
more than
25,000
15,000-
25,000
12,000-
15,000
10,000-
12,000
8,000-
10,000
6,000-
8,000
4,000 -
6,000
less than
4,000
.066
.196
.113
.116
.107
.084
.117
.202
V
\
\
\\
< \
\ \
\ \
\
\\
\\
\
\
>
^
X
V
N,
.109
.334
.113
.101
.080
.055
.078
.130
^^ ••••'*"'
x
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
s
**
^
**
if
....--
^— —
.079
.290
.120
.113
.095
.066
.090
.148
^
X
X
•^
V.
V.
X
X
s
X
X
X
>
X.
"s.
^^» ^
.082
.342
.123
.110
.090
.062
.074
.117
~ ~- — _
*•*
X
X
\
xxv
•x
X
X
"-.
"•-~^^
.096
.396
.124
.105
.081
.050
.059
.090
„ — •— ""
.085
.399
.128
.109
.086
.050
.058
.086
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 10-9: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY,
1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
612
-------
TABLE 10-31:
PROJECTED POPULATION FOR
BILLINGS AREA AND MILES
CITY, 1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Billings
75,000
78,400
82,000
86,400
89,800
92,800
Miles City
9,200
9,900
10,700
12,200
13,800
15,000
Rosebud County finances have been studied extensively, and
an analysis specific to this scenario follows in the section on
fiscal impacts. The Forsyth water and sewage treatment facili-
ties are currently used to capacity (only primary sewage treat-
ment is available), and an expansion of the system is being
studied.^ As is common for small communities, the expenditure
for such facilities is the largest single category of capital
requirements (Table 10-32). The major period of expenditure need
in Forsyth occurs after 1985, and especially in the early 1990's.
Ashland, which currently has no water system, will require about
$8 million to meet demands in the 1988-1993 period. However,
temporary facilities might be used at some savings.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of
Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in
Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974; Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further
Expansion. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975.
2
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains
Federal Regional Council, 1975; U.S., Department of Agriculture,
Committee for Rural Development. 1975 Situation Statement;
Rosebud-Treasure Counties. Forsyth, Mont.: Department of
Agriculture, 1975, p. 84. ,
613
-------
90
Billings
80-
r
c/> 70
o
C/)
o
X
h-
60 -
50 -
o 40 -
Q.
O
QL
30 -
20 -
10 -I-
0
Miles City
I I I I I
1975 I960 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 10-10:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR BILLINGS AND
MILES CITY, 1975-2000.
614
-------
TABLE 10-32:
PROJECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURES REQUIRED
IN FORSYTE AND ASHLAND, 1975-2000
(in thousands of 1975 dollars)
Forsyth
Water and Sewagea
Other*5
Ashland
Water and Sewagea
Otherb
1975-
1980
2,320
780
510
170
1980-
1983
2,550
860
530
180
1983-
1988
3,060
1,030
6,550C
2,200C
1988-
1993
3,800
1,280
0
0
1993-
2000
120
40
0
0
water and sewage plant requirements are assumed to be
$1,760,000 for each additional 1,000 population, and an addi-
tional $591,000 per 1,000 population goes to other physical
plant needs. See THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and
Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry;
Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.:
THK Associates, 1974, p. 30. All figures from that source
are inflated to 1975 dollars. See also Lindauer, R.L.
Solutions to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns Caused by Large
Energy Developments.
pp. 43-44.
Denver, Colo.: Exxon Co., USA, 1975,
Other includes parks and recreation (32 percent), hospitals
(45 percent), libraries (5 percent), fire protection (5
percent), police protection (3 percent), administration
(3 percent), and public works (7 percent). Some of these are
not applicable to Forsyth.
C1988 is the expected year of peak population in Ashland.
To meet projected needs, municipal operating expenditures in
Forsyth and Ashland must increase five-fold by 2000, the larger
increases occurring in the late 1980's and early 1990's (Table
10-33). The provision of necessary services for construction-
related populations will be a major problem because property
taxes will not provide revenue until the construction is
completed. This has been the case in Rosebud County recently.1
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for-Rural Devel-
opment . 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, p. 63.
615
-------
TABLE 10-33:
PROJECTED OPERATING EXPENDITURES
OF FORSYTH AND ASHLAND, 1980-2000
(above 1975 level)a
Year
1980
1983
1988
1993
1995
2000
1974 Budget
Forsyth
458,000
632,000
841,000
1,100,000
948,000
1,109,000
214,353
Ashland
95,000
131,000
577,000
530,000
426,000
522,000
NAb
aBased on a figure of $120 per capita
(1975 dollars) broken down as follows:
streets and roads (25 percent), health
and hospitals (14 percent), police
(7 percent), fire protection (12
percent), parks and recreation (6
'percent) , libraries (4 percent) ,
administration (10 percent)/ sanita-
tion and sewage (10 percent), and
other (12 percent). See THK
Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and
Development Patterns Related to an
Oil Shale Industry; Regional Develop-
ment and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.:
THK Associates, 1974, p. 30. All
figures from that source are inflated
to 1975 dollars. These figures will be
high estimates for Forsyth because some
of these services are provided by county
funds.
Not known.
The large revenue benefits from energy development discussed
in other studies-*- have only begun to be felt in the towns; they
may only partially compensate local municipalities which are
forced to absorb large population increases but do not include
Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Cols trip, Montana;
The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation
of the Community' s Ability to Handle Further Expansion. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals
Policy Development, 1975.
616
-------
the energy facilities within their area of taxation. This is
likely to be the case for Forsyth, Ashland, and other Rosebud
County towns, where newcomers employed in energy development
must live.l What little land ranchers and other landowners make
available for housing will continue to escalate in price, and
general inflation for goods and services will be felt. These
problems will be worse during intensive construction periods,
when greater demands will be placed on local markets . 2
B. Fiscal
In this section, the tax rates currently in effect in
Rosebud County are applied to project incremental revenues likely
to arise from energy development. Some taxes, such as severance
taxes, apply directly to the energy developments; others, such as
personal income taxes, derive indirectly. Some taxes are local,
some are state, and some are collected by the state for local
distribution.
1. Coal Mines License Tax^
This excise tax will probably capture more revenue from
energy development than any other tax. The rate will depend on
heat content and contract price, but will generally be 30 percent
of sales price at the mine.1* The Resource Indemnity Trust Tax
is also based on the value of minerals extracted, in this case at
a 0.5-percent rate. Receipts are placed in a trust which will
If Colstrip remains a company town, then the company could
directly provide many facilities from internal funds, without ,
having to go through the tax system. See Section 10.4.8 below.
2
A description of recent experience in the area is found in
the University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974.
Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 13
(Cumulative Supplement 1976) ; Johnson, Maxine C. , and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further
Expansion. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 43-46.
For heat content greater than 7,000 Btu's/pound (British
thermal unit's per pound) and prices greater than $1.40 per ton.
5
Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 70
(Cumulative Supplement 1976).
617
-------
TABLE 10-34:
SEVERANCE TAX REVENUES FROM COLSTRIP
SCENARIO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Year
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
Gross Receipts
0
0
80
171
239
292
438
652
Tax Revenues
0
0
24.4
52.2
72.9
89.1
133.6
198.9
The Coal Mines License Tax accounts
for 98.4 percent of the tax revenues
in the table, at 30 percent of the
mine revenues. The remainder is the
Resource Indemnity Trust Tax, at 0.5
percent of mine revenues.
accumulate to $100 million with certain restrictions; this
scenario simply credits the funds to the state legislature's
discretion.
Projected prices for Western coal indicate a rise from $9.52
per ton in 1983 to $13.94 by 2001 (all figures in 1975 cur-
rency) .-*• The Colstrip scenario calls for new coal production to
reach 47 million tons per year by 2000. Multiplying these
quantities together and then by 30.5 percent, annual mine and tax
revenues are projected (Table 10-34).
2. Property Taxes
Several forms of property are taxed by a host of govern-
mental units. This analysis concentrates on the energy facili-
ties, associated municipal construction, and "gross proceeds" of
mines. It is assumed that energy facilities in the scenario will
be taxed during construction in proportion to the resources invested
as of each date. The actual value of facilities subject to property
tax would thus grow continuously (Table 10-35) . It can be seen in the
table that the energy developments, rather than the resulting residen-
tial and commercial growth, will dominate the tax assessment rolls.
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park,
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
618
-------
TABLE 10-35:
PROJECTED PROPERTY VALUATION
IN ROSEBUD COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Year
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
Facilities
55
276
998
1,135
1,831
2,051
3,605
4,862
Minerals
0
0
80
171
239
292
438
642
Residential
and Conunerciala
4
11
23
15
54
31
79
96
•a
Based on $3,800 per capita and population
growth in Rosebud County. See Polzin, Paul E.
Water Use and Coal Development in Eastern
Montana. Bozeman, Mont.: University of
Montana, Joint Water Resources Research Center,
1974, p. 142.
Taxable values are derived from these actual values by a
series of statutorially defined ratios. Most property receives
a multiplier of .12, so that the recent mill levy of 94.42 is
equivalent to a rate of 1.133 percent of full market value.1
Applying the tax rates to the taxable values, and using the
current formulas for apportionment, likely property tax receipts
are summarized in Table 10-36.
These revenues far exceed previous annual receipts in
Rosebud County. At the current time (after some energy-related
development has already been felt), the county's total of non-
utility property has a taxable value of $15.3 million. By
contrast, energy facilities will grow to a taxable value of $584
million by 2000, and gross proceeds will reach $117 million.
Clearly, these facilities will become the mainstay of local
public finances, especially for the school district which depends
Pollution control equipment has a multiplier of .028, and
gross proceeds from strip mining has a multiplier of 18. We do
not make separate provision for control equipment in these
estimates, however. See Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further
Expansion. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975.
619
-------
TABLE 10-36: PROJECTED PROPERTY TAX RECEIPTS IN ROSEBUD COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
State
County General
Purposes
County for
Schools
School District 19
Total Levy
1978
0
.2
.3
.1
.6
1980
.2
.8
1.9
.7
3.6
1983
.8
3.3
6.3
2.5
12.9
1985
.9
4.1
7.9
3.1
16.0
1988
1.5
6.5
12.6
4.9
25.5
1990
1.7
7.4
14.4
5.6
29.1
1995
2.9
12.5
24.3
9.5
49.2
2000
3.9
16.6
32.3
12.6
65.4
almost entirely on property taxes. A comparison with Table 10-29
shows that the school districts in Rosebud County can enjoy sub-
stantial surpluses if current tax rates are maintained.
The valuation of facilities will probably take on political
overtones, considering its crucial role in determining local
budgets. The tax assessment process, conducted at the state
level, may enjoy some insulation from local political pressures,
but these facilities are so capital-intensive as to have a
noticeable impact even on the state's tax rolls.
Also, there is a distinct possibility that rates may be
reduced, especially those of the property tax and coal mines
severance tax. Otherwise (if no major spending programs were
introduced), large surpluses would build up in state and county
treasuries. Moreover, the 30-percent rate of the license tax far
exceeds rates in neighboring states (about 6 percent in North
Dakota and 3.5 percent in Wyoming). Thus, this high rate might
eventually cause a loss of some development to other states.
3. State Income Tax
The state income tax in Montana is a graduated tax and
therefore depends on the income distribution (Table 10-30; Figure
10-9). Including $3,600 in exemptions and deductions for a
family of four, the average tax collected per household will be
in the range of 6.5-6.6 percent of household income. Taking into
account the income distribution in Table 10-30, the total new
income tax revenue is shown in Table 10-37.
See Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 49
(1947).
620
-------
TABLE 10-37:
NEW STATE INCOME TAX RECEIPTS FROM ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Year
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
New Households
in Rosebud County
425
1,230)
1,955
1,305
5,460
3,090
7,680
9,660
Total New
Personal Income
5.7
16.6
23
15.4
71.8
40.6
113.5
141
New Tax
Receipts3
.4
1.1
1.5
1
4.7
2.6
7.4
9.2
At 6.5 percent of new personal income.
4. Distribution
The state receives all funds generated by electrical producers'
and income taxes, and a portion of the mill levy, as detailed
previously (Table 10-36). The county government will receive new
funds from the coal tax and the mill levy. All new funds for
schools will come from mill levies (by the county and by the
districts). Further, the Coal Mines License Tax and the Resource
Indemnity Trust Tax are distributed as follows beginning in 1979:
41 percent goes to the state general fund; 34.5 percent goes to
local impact and education trust funds (of which 3/7 may be
disbursed in grants); 21.1 percent goes to state-earmarked pur-
poses (public schools equalization receives 46.5 percent of that
portion, park acquisition receives 23.2 percent, energy research
receives 18.6 percent, and resource development bonds support
receives 11.6 percent); and 3.4 percent goes to the originating
county.1 The distribution of new revenues from all taxes is
summarized in Table 10-38.
The property valuation data presented in Table 10-35 showed
that less than 2 percent of new ad valorem revenues will come
from residential and commercial development. Since the energy
facilities will be located in unincorporated areas, municipal-
ities will be excluded from the larger part of new property
taxes. Combined with the fact that there is no sales tax in
Montana, this means that towns such as Forsyth must depend to a
great extent on allocations from higher levels of government.
These figures differ from language in RCM 84-1309.1 because
the License Tax and Resource Indemnity Trust Tax have been com-
bined for ease of calculation.
621
-------
TABLE 10-38:
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW TAX REVENUES FROM COLSTRIP
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Year
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
State
General
Purpose
.4
1.3
14.3
31.1
43.9
48.6
72.9
102.5
State
Earmarked
Funds
0
0
5.1
11
15.4
18.8
28.2
42
State
Grants
to Local
0
0
3.6
7.7
10.8
13.2
19.8
29.4
County
General
Purposes
.2
1
4.1
5.9
9
10.4
17
23.4
Schools
(county and
district)
.4
2.6
8.8
11
17.5
21
33.8
44.9
But if all the state impact aid funds are channeled back to
their county of origin, then all local needs can be met, with
surpluses, after 1981. In the first few years, the fiscal
balance will be as shown in Table 10-39.
10.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts
A distinctive aspect of the Rosebud County area is the
continued opposition of many area ranchers to strip mining and
other energy development. The arguments are largely economic,
since the land and water supplies are crucial to ranching opera-
tions, but also include aesthetics (focusing on transmission
lines) and combinations of the two (including air pollution
effects on visibility and on vegetation).!
Newcomers to the Rosebud County area have not been uniformly
impressed with living conditions in the area. Land for housing
subdivisions is not available, even in small lots, and mobile
"Colstrip Testimony." The Plains Truth, Vol. 5 (February-
March 1976), pp. 11-16; see also Montana, Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation, Energy Planning Division. Draft
Environmental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating
Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Transmission Lines and Associated
Facilities. Helena, Mont.: Montana, Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation, 1974, Vol. 3-B, pp. 789-825; Univer-
sity of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A
Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 27-35.
622
-------
TABLE 10-39: CONSOLIDATED FISCAL BALANCE, TOWN OF FORSYTE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1976-1985
(millions of 1975 dollars)
New
Expenditures
Capital
Operating
New
Revenues
State Aid
County
Surplus
(deficit)
1976
.05
0
Oa
0
(.05)
1977
.11
.01
0
0
(.12)
1978
.67
.04
0
.16
(.55)
1979
.85
.09
0
.44
(.50)
1980
.80
.13
0
.83
(.10)
1981
1.59
.21
0
1.57
(.23)
1982
1.22
.27
0
2.33
.84
1983
.09
.27
3.61
4.09
7.34
1984
0
.19
3.61
4.46
7.88
1985
.36
.21
7.73
5.83
12.99
zeros indicate that no such revenues are generated in the county (in our scenario) until
1983. Aid may still be provided by the state with funds generated in other areas. See
Section 10.4.8.
-------
home living is the primary alternative. Even in the company-downed
town of Colstrip, few families actually own their homes. More
unsettling to many families is the separation within Colstrip
between construction workers, non-administrative operation
workers, and administrators and supervisors, and there is no
evidence that this will be eliminated in the future. As a
result, a number of workers, especially those with families, have
chosen to live in Forsyth.2 This can be expected to continue.
The major social impacts on long-time residents will be on
the ranchers, who perceive their way of life and values threatened by
coal development. To newcomers, the lack of land to purchase
will force most to live in mobile homes, and those who live in
Colstrip will be aware of the housing segregation. For all,
local inflation will be a problem when limited competition allows
rising prices to take advantage of high incomes.
The quality of life in Rosebud County varies with residen-
tial location. Dissatisfaction with medical services, housing
availability, and streets and roads is common in both Colstrip
and Forsyth. Residents of Colstrip have been quite dissatisfied
with entertainment and shopping facilities, resulting in an
overall characterization of the town as "isolated" and "dull".
In Forsyth, these services are more readily available, and
dissatisfactions are more regularly expressed regarding housing
quality. People recently living in Forsyth tend to have positive
descriptions about the town, characterizing it as "friendly" and
"happy". Forsyth's established town atmosphere appears to be
much preferred over other locations in Rosebud County.
For descriptions of Colstrip, see Myhra, David. "Colstrip,
Montana—the Modern Company Town." Coal Age, Vol. 80 (May 1975),
pp. 54-57; Schmechel, W.P. "Developments at Western Energy Com-
pany's Rosebud Mine," in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the
Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 1. Billings, Mont.:
Eastern Montana College, Montana Academy of Sciences, 1975, pp.
60-66.
o
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana
and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp.
16-18, 43-45.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Com-
munity Report: Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana. Washington,
D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 28-32 and 56-61.
624
-------
Medical care will continue to be a pressing need in the
county, as in most of non-metropolitan America. At least 16 more
doctors will be needed by 2000 just to maintain the current
average of one doctor per 1,500 people. Twice that number would
be needed to meet national averages. As elsewhere in the West
and in rural areas, attracting doctors will be difficult if not
impossible. A subsidized group practice with guaranteed working
hours would be a possible inducement for practicing physicians.
New doctors could also be influenced to locate in small towns
through loan forgiveness programs. 1
10.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
As noted in the preceding fiscal analysis, the state and the
school districts generally will have sufficient revenues to
respond to energy-related impacts. However, the net fiscal
status of local units of government, will depend largely on
administrative and policy decisions made at the state and county
levels of government and by the private owners of Colstrip. For
example, Forsyth, which will probably be the major recipient of
newcomers, must depend on state-level impact aid and county
revenues because the energy facilities in this scenario are
located in unincorporated areas. Distribution decisions of this
nature become even more critical because Montana has no sales
tax.
Funding decisions about facilities and services at Colstrip
will be up to the discretion of its administrators, as is the
case for any company town. Administrators will have wide lati-
tude in the way they provide services or amenities. In addition,
workers on energy developments not participated in by the Western
Energy Company may not be allowed to live in Colstrip as long as
the company owns the town. Colstrip1 s ultimate incorporation is
not scheduled, and even if it should occur early enough for the
town to absorb new residents, the usual strains caused by service
demands associated with rapid growth would arise. Decisions in
both regards will also influence the number of people locating in
other communities.
"" Actions by the Montana Coal Board clearly will be instru-
mental in determining whether financial problems in communities
outside the immediate area of the mines will be handled ade-
quately. If all Montana state impact funds are channeled back to
their county of origin, then fiscal demands for the town of
Forsyth can be met, with surpluses, after 1981. During 1976-
1981, deficits will be experienced, most notably in 1978 ($550,000)
Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access
to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand
Corporation, 1976.
625
-------
and 1979 ($500,000). Besides funneling state revenues back to
Forsyth, two additional factors can be brought to bear on tne
"lead time" problem experienced in the short term. First,
according to state law, county commissioners can request prepay-
ment of taxes on a new industrial facility, not to exceed three
times the estimated property tax due the year the facility is
completed.1 These advance funds would provide immediate local
impact assistance. Second, the state can use severance tax
revenues generated in other parts of the state, just as Rosebud s
revenues can later be sent to areas beginning their growth in the
1980's. In fact, Montana already has distributed $3.69 million
in such revenues to Rosebud and Big Horn Counties (as of mid-
1976) . This aid is presently helping to reduce financial hard-
ship in Forsyth, Colstrip, and Ashland.2
Another government impact category where money appears to be
one of the principal problems is law enforcement. Funds are
needed for manpower and equipment to adequately handle the large
projected influx of people, especially during the construction
phase of development. At present, the counties are levying all
they can (at least all that is politically feasible) to assist in
meeting the needs of their localities. Local revenues are being
supplemented by revenue sharing grants and other federal sources.
Police protection in both Rosebud and Treasure Counties is a
consolidated city-county effort and, in each, is administered by
the Sheriff's office. Officers have jurisdiction over their
entire county, including rural areas, city properties, and
unincorporated towns. In the near future, inadequate protection
for Colstrip and Ashland may force incorporation of these towns
and formation of their own police departments.3
The most important political impacts appear to be related to
decisions concerning land use in the area. Local governing
bodies in Montana are required by law to adopt subdivision
regulations which conform to minimum standards, including: a
requirement for environmental assessments; analysis of possible
social and economic impacts; and dedication of land for open
space (parks) or payment of cash in lieu of land.1* In addition,
Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 84-41-105 (Cumulative
Supplement 1975).
2
Old West Regional Commission Bulletin, Vol. 3 (September 1,
1976), p. 4.
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Devel-
opment. 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties. -
Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 83-84.
4
Montana Revised Codes Annotated §§11-3859 through 11-3876
(Cumulative Supplement 1975).
626
-------
a 1975 amendment to the Montana Subdivision and Platting Act
establishes specific "public interest" criteria which county
commissioners must consider and respond to before taking action
on a subdivision application, including expressed public opinion
and potential social and environmental effects.^
The majority of the people in Rosebud County are very con-
cerned about the balance between social costs of industrial
growth and related economic gains, and they want to play a role
in the planning and decisionmaking process for further develop-
ment. 2 Controversy over planning and zoning decisions may become
more pronounced as the area population increases. This is
particularly significant since Rosebud County's zoning laws and
regulations constrain the availability of land for subdivision
purposes, forcing most new residents to locate in existing towns.
The resultant expansion of the towns to a more urban character
will be* difficult for some long-time residents to accept.3
Others will enjoy the greater range of goods and services avail-
able. The county, which as already noted receives much of the
taxation benefit from energy development, will continue its
adaptation to more populated conditions by expanding roads and
cooperating with the local communities. These decisions do not
always rest well with the landowners, nearly all of whom are
ranchers.
10.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts
The Colstrip energy development scenario shows an increase
in the Rosebud County population of 25,000 people by the year
2000. The largest population increases are expected in Forsyth,
which will grow six-fold during the scenario period to 13,500.
Mobile homes will be the major housing type throughout the
This amendment should provide a forum for the public in
important growth-related decisions; however, it also raises the
potential for political conflict.
2
U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Devel-
opment. 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, p. 59.
3Ibid, pp. 57-59.
4
For example, the decision to build a new road between Colstrip
and Forsyth was opposed by area ranchers, who reportedly prefer
unpaved roads because they "discourage nosey tourists and cattle
thieves. " See University of Montana, Institute for Social Science
Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Devel-
opment on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern
Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University
of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, p. 74.
627
-------
period, reflecting the unavailability of land for home construction.
School enrollments will grow slowly until about 1990 when raPia
growth will take place. The expenditure requirements for school
districts follow the same pattern, suggesting that lead times may
be easier to deal with in Rosebud County.
Local area incomes will change alone with the shift in eco-
nomic activity. Greater reliance on energy sectors will raise
median incomes 48 percent by 2000 and even more during construc-
tion booms. These incomes will likely induce local inflation,
especially in housing. Miles City and Billings will receive a
significant amount of the wholesale and retail activity from
Rosebud County development.
Population-related government expenditures follow the trend
of population growth, with the greatest need occurring in the
early 1990's. Of particular importance will be the water and
sewage treatment facilities, which will require over $19 million
in capital expenditures by 2000. Although the state and the
school districts will generally have sufficient funds to respond
to impacts, the municipalities are dependent on coal tax funds
and actions by the state Coal Board for adequate revenues for
local services.
Rancher opposition to coal development in Rosebud County
will probably grow as additional grazing land is strip-mined.
The company-owned town of Colstrip provides an uncertain govern-
mental problem through potential prohibitions on living within
the town while working nearby. Rosebud County's planning capac-
ity and regulatory ability appear able to constrain the type of
unplanned sprawl occurring in some areas in the West.
10.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
10.5.1 Introduction
The area considered for ecological impacts in the Colstrip
scenario extends from the Bighorn Mountains in the southwest,
eastward to the Tongue River, and north to the Yellowstone River.
Most of the landscape consists of rolling hills broken by more
rugged uplands and dissected by several tributaries to the
Yellowstone. Elevations range from 2,700 feet at Forsyth to
5,200 feet in the Little Wolf Mountains. The climate is semiarid
with extreme annual variations in temperature and occasional
violent storms, which together with soil moisture and topography
largely determine the abundance and distribution of the biota.1
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains. General Technical
Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974.
628
-------
TABLE 10-40:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, COLSTRIP SCENARIO
Community
Characteristic
Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Sagebrush Grassland
Green needlegrass
Needle-and-thread
grass
Western wheatgrass
Blue grama
Big sage
Silver sage
Pronghorn antelope
Whitetailed jack-
rabbit
Badger
Western meadowlark
Sage grouse
Short-horned
lizard
Pine Woodland
Ponderosa pine
Rocky mountain
juniper
Bluebunch wheatgrass
Sideoats grama
Snowberry
Goldenrod
Mule deer
Porcupine
Bobcat
Ground squirrel
species
Great horned owl
Red-shafted flicker
Turkey
Sharptail grouse
Streamsides
Plains cottonwood
Green ash
Willow
Wild currant
Bluegrass
Foxtail
Dock
Whitetail deer
Raccoon
Little brown bat
Red fox
Shorebirds (e.g.,
killdeer)
Yellowthroat
Ringneck pheasant
Leopard frog
Agricultural practices, particularly livestock grazing and
sagebrush eradication programs, are important influences on the
ecosystem.
10.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
The terrestrial ecosystem is characterized by two major
biological communities: ponderosa pine and juniper woodlands,
and the more gently rolling sagebrush grasslands of lower eleva-
tions. In addition to these, floodplains and streambanks support
a distinctive riparian vegetation. Table 10-40 lists species
characteristic of these community types. Although vertebrate
629
-------
wildlife range across all three of these vegetational types,
unifying them into a single ecosystem, many species have seasonaj.
preferences, moving in response to the availability of shelter
and forage in winter and succulent vegetation in summer. Rare
and endangered species include the perigrene falcon, and said
eagle; the black-footed ferret may also be present.
The diversity of vegetation is related to small-scale topog-
raphic variabilities, such as rock outcrops where fissures hold
pockets of soil and water for trees. The mixture of vegetation
in turn supports a variety of wildlife. The least abundant
riparian habitat is probably the most critical to the maintenance
of overall ecosystem diversity, as this type is used (at least
seasonally) by most of the area's vertebrate species. Its extent
has been reduced by irrigated agriculture, especially in the
large floodplains of the Yellowstone, Bighorn, and Tongue Rivers.
Rivers support a varied and diverse aquatic fauna and supply
important breeding and migration habitat for waterfowl. Fish
populations are generally dominated by non-game species such as
bullheads, goldeye, carp, suckers, shubs, minnows, and dace.
Game fishes in the area include sauger and channel catfish; trout
and bass have been introduced. Three native game species of
particular importance in the Yellowstone and Tongue River are the
paddlefish, shoveInose sturgeon, and pallid sturgeon, which enter
the rivers in the spring to spawn. A total of 49 species.of fish
have been recorded in the Yellowstone in Montana.2
The Bighorn Mountains are covered with a variety of conif-
erous forests, zoned by altitude and topography. Alpine meadows
are scattered over the highest elevations. The animal life of
the Bighorns is accordingly diverse; game animals include elk,
mule deer, black bear, mountain lion, bighorn sheep, antelope,
white-tailed deer, and moose. Most of the big game animals are
limited by winter range. Several uncommon species requiring
For example, mule deer and antelope tend to use all three
types of vegetation, 'although exhibiting a preference for wood-
land and sagebrush respectively. The coyote, a major predator,
and the deer mouse, an important prey species, are also found in
all types of habitats.
2
Peterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix. "Preliminary
Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark,
Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Sympo-
sium Vol. 2: Aquatic Ecosystems Section. Billings, Mont.:
Eastern Montana College, 1975, p. 99.
630
-------
special management practices include the wolverine, pine marten,
and spotted bat.l
10.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
During the 1975-1980 period, construction will start on the
mine-mouth power plant scheduled to come on-line in 1985. The
population of Rosebud County will increase by 3,000 (35 percent)
most of which will locate in Colstrip and Forsyth.
During the 1980-1990 period, the power plant and accom-
panying water and transmission lines will be completed, destroying or
preempting approximately 4,770 acres of primarily sagebrush-
grassland and pine woodland. The Lurgi gasification plant east
of Colstrip (and its water and gas lines) will consume 1,790
acres of sagebrush, woodland, and pure grassland. By 1990 the
power plant and Lurgi gasification plant will withdraw about 68
cubic feet per second (cfs) from the Yellowstone River which is
1.3 percent of the annual minimum flow. The area population will
increase 46 percent, bringing 5,500 more people into the county.
During the 1990-2000 period, the Synthane plant at Colstrip
and the Synthoil plant in the Sarpy Creek valley will be con-
structed and begin operation. With associated facilities these
installations will occupy about 7,600 acres of former sagebrush-
grassland. Water withdrawals will increase to about 109 cfs for
the energy facilities which is 2.1 percent of the annual minimum
flow of the Yellowstone River. The Rosebud county population
will increase sharply over this decade, rising about 60 percent
(the addition of 10,000 people). Two new roads will be built to
the mine-plant complex sites, and there will be improved highways
connecting the major new population centers.
Strip mining will commence in 1985, and a new mine will be
added every 5 years. However, the impacts of habitat removal due
to mining will not be fully realized until mining has terminated
in all four localities. By that time (approximately 2030) a
total of about 17,200 acres of sagebrush grassland and 12,100
acres of pine forest or woodland will have been altered and
replaced by planted vegetation.
In addition, the flammulated owl, American osprey, prairie
falcon, grayling, greater sandhill crane, and gyrfalcon have also
been described as requiring special management by the Fish and
Wildlife Service.
631
-------
10.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
Vegetation loss during this 5-year period is limited to the
area of the power plant site, which presently produces forage
equivalent to requirements of. 40-60 cows with calves.1 For
purposes of comparison, a 1974 Census of Agriculture Preliminary
Report for Rosebud County indicates a total inventory of 94,500
cattle and calves.
At the power plant site, direct habitat removal affects most
small vertebrate species locally and is not expected to reduce
regional populations. However, the site area is a wintering area
for mule deer "and antelope, and the disturbance from construction
activity may cause big game species to disperse into adjacent
areas. Sharptail and sage grouse courtship and brood-rearing
activities could be disturbed or displaced as far as 2 miles from
the s ite.
Increases in both legal and illegal hunting are typically
associated with large construction projects in the West. Poaching
will probably center near Colstrip and the Construction site,
especially since both mule deer and antelope now concentrate
there in winter.2 Private landowners have already begun to close
their lands to hunters and other outdoor recreationists? with the
first construction peak, land closure will probably become com-
mon. While this action may reduce poaching, it will also focus
legitimate big hunting pressure on the nearby Custer and Bighorn
National Forests, where hunter success may decline.
This estimate is derived from the carrying capacity of the
different vegetation types in acres per Animal Unit Month (AUM).
An AUM is a measure of forage production, and represents the
amount of forage required to sustain a cow with calf, or five
sheep, for a month. Because food habits differ, the unit cannot
generally be applied to wildlife. Since the unit has no time
dimension, its interpretation in terms of total numbers of
livestock depends on whether the range is used seasonally or all
year. Carrying capacities used were: 3.5-7.0 acres/AUM in sage-
brush grassland; 3.5-4.0 acres/AUM in pine woodland; and 5.5
acres/AUM in other grassland types (Payne, G.F. Vegetative
Rangeland Types in Montana, Bulletin 671. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana
State University, Montana Agricultural Experiment Station, 1973.)
2
Unlike legitimate hunting, poaching can reduce the breeding
stock by taking females and young, which can affect the ability
of the population to replace harvested individuals by reproduc-
tion. As populations decline, the number of individuals which
may be safely harvested by legal hunters is reduced, and legal
hunts may be curtailed or even discontinued.
632
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B. Impacts to 1990
During the second scenario decade, construction of the Lurgi
gasification plant will remove additional pine woodland and
sagebrush-grassland habitat. The total forage value of the lands
affected is roughly equivalent to the yearly needs of about 60-80
cows with calves. Ecological impacts of this habitat loss will
be similar to those around the dolstrip power plant site. However,
the Lurgi plant does not occupy portions of known key wildlife
ranges.
This time period will also see major improvements in vehic-
ular access throughout the scenario area. Highway rights-of-way
will generally follow the major stream courses in the area and
will constitute a major adverse influence on these restricted
habitat zones. By 1990, the volume of traffic along large por-
tions of Armells and Rosebud Creeks and the Tongue River will
have increased several-fold. Habitat removal will affect a
variety of small birds, mammals, and amphibians, among them the
sharptail grouse and ring-necked pheasant. Whitetail deer,
largely restricted to valley bottoms, are likely to decline. In
particular, the highway following the Tongue River would bisect
two mule deer winter concentration areas and an antelope concen-
tration area, increasing road kills and resulting in a slight
reduction of the deer and antelope populations.
The growth in areawide human populations, especially at
Colstrip,sand Forsyth, will also contribute to illegal shooting of
non-game animals, off-road vehicle (ORV) use, and habitat frag-
mentation from subdivision and strip development. Birds of prey,
such as Swainson's hawk and the golden eagle, which frequent
roadsides and perch on power or telephone poles, are most vulner-
able to shooting. Varmint hunting can indirectly affect the
probability of the survival of black-footed ferrets in the area
(if they are present), especially if prairie dog populations are
reduced.1 Other non-target species, particularly the Northern
kit fox and other beneficial small predators, may also show
noticeable declines by 1990.
\'
Some local disturbance of big game animals and interference
with the breeding and nesting of sharptail and sage grouse may
occur. Feral dogs (dogs allowed to run loose and become wild)
A survey conducted by a consulting firm from 1972 to 1975
in a 10x20-mile rectangle bracketing Colstrip did not detect
ferrets. Schwarzkoph, William F., and Raymond R. Austin. "Mon-
itoring Wildlife Parameters Prior to Extensive Strip Mining and
Operation of Coal-Fired Steam Generating Plants at Colstrip,
Montana," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union
Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 5: Terrestrial Ecosystems Section.
Billings, Mont.s Eastern Montana College, 1975, p. 668.
633
-------
may threaten local wildlife near population centers. Because the
town of Colstrip lies within an area of winter deer and antelope
concentrations, there is a potential for harrassment by dogs to
develop into a sufficiently important stress to effect a reduc-
tion in numbers,1 beginning as early as 1980, in the absence of
additional controls.
Growing municipalities in the area may discharge increasing
amounts of sewage effluent into surface waters, at least until
new systems can be built. Although discharge from Forsyth would
flow into the Yellowstone, the amount will be negligible, even in
comparison to the historical low-flow in the Yellowstone. Dilu-
tion will reduce nutrient concentrations well below levels that
might affect aquatic production. However, continued use of
septic systems around Colstrip could contaminate groundwater and
transfer nutrients into Armells Creek. Although the stream is
intermittent, nutrient enrichment could cause algal blooms that
reduce the quality of the aquatic environment for fish.
C. Impacts to 2000
The construction of the Synthane and Synthoil plants and
their associated facilities will take place in the last decade of
the scenario. Livestock forage lost by converting grazing land
to industrial use will be an amount equivalent to the ye,arly
requirements of 50-90 cows with calves. These facilities will
further fragment wildlife habitat around Colstrip and the Sarpy
Creek Valley. The greatest impacts on wildlife will probably be
associated with the loss of thickets and woodlands along valleys
affected by road construction. Poaching will probably continue
to be associated with peaks in construction activity. The com-
bined effects of habitat loss, vehicular traffic, and increased
legal and illegal hunting will probably result in at least mod-
erate reductions in populations of white-tailed deer and pheas-
ant. A zone of urban influence extending several miles around
Colstrip may result in which wildlife will be generally less
abundant and diverse, and game species will be uncommon. Although
the Synthoil plant on Sarpy Creek will be a more isolated influ-
ence, it is sited in an antelope winter concentration area and *
will probably cause some relocation. However, areawide popula-
tions of non-game species with small ranges are not likely to be
affected as strongly.
All the scenario facilities emit air pollutants into the
atmosphere, the greatest quantities coming from the power plant.
Although a variety of pollutants are emitted, including trace
The net impact of such growth-related stresses is not
always to reduce the stability of the population but to lower the
proportion of the total ("surplus") that can safely be removed by
hunting without threatening the balance.
634
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elements and hydrocarbons, the potential effects on vegetation
may result from sulfur dioxide (802) and fluorine. In the first-
year analysis, emissions of fluorine were not calculated. Acute
injury normally results from exposures of a few hours to high
levels of S02- Short-term field fumigation studies have revealed
threshold sensitivities of 1.0-1.5 parts per million (ppm) for
range grasses,1 and between 1 and 6 ppm for sagebrush and asso-
ciated shrubs.2 S02 damage to white and jack pine has been
observed in the field with continuous exposure to between 0.13
and 0.5 ppm ambient concentrations;3 laboratory and field fumiga-
tion tests have produced injury in ponderosa pine between 0.4 and
10.0 ppm, depending on the investigator.4 crops grown in the
Colstrip area are largely alfalfa and winter wheat, both of which
are sensitive to SO2- Acute damage has occurred in wheat at con-
centrations of 0.20-0.40 ppm5 and in alfalfa at 0.5 ppm.6
Dispersion modeling indicates that the highest short-term
ground-level concentrations experienced, with all facilities on
line, will be 0.26 ppm (3-hour average) downwind of the power
plant. Under most circumstances, concentrations will be at least
an order of magnitude less. This maximum level could damage
Tingey, D.T., R.W. Field, and L. Bard. "Physiological
Responses of Vegetation to Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions," in
Lewis, R.A., N.R. Glass, and A.S. Lefohn, eds. The Bioenviron-
mental Impact of a Coal-Fired Power Plant, 2nd Interim
Report: Colstrip, Montana, EPA-600/3-76-013. Corvallis, Oreg.:
Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory, 1976.
Hill, A.C., et al. "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegeta-
tion to SO2 and to S02 and NO2 Combined." Journal of the Air
Pollution Control Association, Vol. 24 (February 1974), pp. 153-
57.
Dreisinger, B.R. "Monitoring Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide
and Correlating Its Effects on Crops and Forests in the Sudbury
Area," in Conference on the Impact of Air Pollution on Vegeta-
tion; Proceedings. Toronto, Canada: Ontario Department of
Energy and Resources Management, 1970; Linzon, S.N. "Damage to
Eastern White Pine by Sulfur Dioxide, Semi-Mature Tissue Needle
Blight, and Ozone." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association,
Vol. 16 (March 1966), pp. 140-44.
4
Hill, et al. "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation. "
5
Guderian, R., andH. VanHaut. "Detection of S02 Effects Upon
Plants." Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970), pp. 22-35.
Tingey, D.T., et al. "vegetation Injury from Interaction
of Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide." Phytopathology, Vol. 61
(December 1971), pp. 1506-11.
635
-------
wheat crops and dispersion conditions producing these high
concentrations occur mainly in the winter. Spring brings the
most favorable conditions for ventilation.
Chronic damage typically occurs when S02 levels are much
lower than those required to induce direct injury. Chronic SO2
pollution damage of alfalfa and wheat may be possible downwind of
the power plant. Judging from the relatively higher tolerances
of native plants to acute SO2* these species may be less likely
to develop chronic injury symptoms. However, in the absence of
appropriate data, the possibility cannot be ruled out.
Beginning with the opening of the power plant in 1985, the
scenario's Water demands will be capable of reducing low-flow in
the summer months in the Yellowstone River during dry years to a
point where some short-term ecological response may become
noticeable. The magnitude of such flow reductions would be
greater downstream of the scenario area near the Yellowstone-
Missouri confluence than in the withdrawal area. Between Miles
City and Sidney, large irrigation withdrawals currently reduce
summer low-flows by an amount equivalent to roughly 50 percent of
the low-flow of record. Outside the growing season, including
the spring runoff period critical to migratory spawners such as
the paddlefish and sturgeon, flow near Sidney is appreciably
greater than at Miles City. For this reason, even though the
impact on summer low-flow could be significant in the lower
Yellowstone, no interference with the reproductive patterns of
either spring or fall spawning fishes are expected to result from
the Colstrip scenario alone.
Water removal by the scenario developments for energy facil-
ities peaks at 79,000 acre-feet per year by the end of the
scenario time frame. The impact of this use depends on the
ecosystem dynamics of the Yellowstone River. Key ecosystem com-
ponents are presently under intensive study but are not yet
sufficiently well known to permit establishment of in-stream flow
requirements.l Consequently, it is not possible to predict the
magnitudes of the ecological consequences of reduced summer low-
flows. However, possible effects include additional sedimenta-
tion to a limited degree during summer, reducing the productive
riffle areas crucial to the food supply of most game fishes, and
Performed by the Montana Department of Natural Resources
for the Old West Regional Commission, Dr. Kenneth Blackburn,
Project Coordinator.
636
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reducing the area of quiet backwaters, island edges, and vegetated
banks important for the growth and survival of many juvenile
fishes.1 These impacts would be temporary, and a return to
normal flow conditions will permit the ecosystem to restore its
balance in subsequent years.
Dewatering of active mines can affect discharge in springs
and seeps, with consequent reductions in the base flow of springs.
The severity of the resultant ecological consequences will
depend on the scale of the impact and cannot be predicted with
certainty. However, the following kinds of impacts could occur
if discharge were eliminated over a large portion (for example,
25 percent) of the Rosebud Creek Basin throughout the entire time
frame:
1. Reduction in diversity and biomass of the Rosebud
Creek ecosystem. The stream is not important as
a fishery, but loss of ecosystem productivity
would affect terrestrial species such as the rac-
coon, shorebirds, and waterfowl.
2. Reduction in extent and vigor of riparian vege-
tation dependent on stream underflow. Losses
of this type of vegetation, if extensive, would
reduce carrying capacity for all species listed
as characteristic of this vegetation type,
including white-tailed deer, sharptail grouse,
pheasant, muskrat, and mink. Sage grouse brood-
rearing areas could also be affected.
3. Reduction in density of smaller wildlife depen-
dent on springs and seeps for watering, including
mourning dove and several species of rodents.
More drought-resistant forms, such as Ord's
kangaroo rat and woodrats, may replace the
species lost.
Peterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix. "Preliminary
Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark,
Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Sympo-
sium Vol.,2: Aquatic Ecosystems Section. Billings, Mont.:
Eastern Montana College, 1975, p. 99.
2
The Yellowstone is expected to supply water not just for
the development of the immediately adjacent coal deposits but for
industry as far away as Gillette. Therefore, although the
Colstrip scenario in itself is not expected to result in major
ecological damage from dewatering, regional water demands could
occasion serious stress. The ecological impacts of withdrawals
at this scale are discussed in Chapter 12.
637
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Reduction of runoff due to impoundment of mine and plant
site drainage, affects 6,400 acre-feet of runoff lost to the
Sarpy, Armells, and Rosebud Creek drainages. This will combine
with that of reduced groundwater discharge to produce the impacts
discussed above.
By the year 2000, all the scenario facilities will accumu-
late impounded wastewaters on site. All these waste ponds will
contain considerable amounts of carbonate and sulfate salts,
together with various trace metals and chemical wastes from
demineralizing operations. In addition, wastewaters from coal
conversion may contain a variety of toxic organic compounds,
especially phenols (a number of organic agents known or thought
to be carcinogenic), as well as dissolved hydrogen sulfide and
ammonia. These materials could pose a threat to wildlife if they
were repeatedly consumed or contacted.1 Impoundments made of
reclaimed mine spoils and ash might leach heavy metals in waters
or be incorporated into aquatic and terrestrial food chains,
depending on concentration and food chain links with the terres-
trial ecosystem. Even with these conditions met, the resulting
ecological impacts would be local.
An important feature of the Colstrip scenario is the limited
availability of public land open to or suitable for camping,
hiking, hunting, fishing, and snowmobile and ORV use. The
closest public lands are the two National Forests: Custer in
Montana and Bighorn in Wyoming.
The greatest potential for damage exists in the Bighorn
National Forest. The forest will probably be a regional focus
for recreation for increased populations throughout the entire
Powder River resource region. Large areas of the forest are
closed to vehicular traffic, or otherwise restricted, in the
winter months, which will tend to concentrate ORV and snowmobile
use on the remaining open areas. Wilderness areas will receive
heavy foot and horse traffic in the summer months, unless restrictions
are placed on the number of visitor days permitted. Although
numerous forest species are tolerant of human activity, some
species (including elk, pine marten, and bighorn sheep) avoid
Wildlife will probably not drink from these impoundments
even though conventional fencing would deter few species. The
extreme saltiness and probably unpleasant odors will render these
waters unpalatable, especially with clean water available nearby
in the water reservoirs at each site. Water-fowl may occasion-
ally land on these ponds, especially during migration, but in the
absence of aquatic vegetation or animal life would not remain
long enough for repeated contact with carcinogens to increase the
risk of tumor formation. Thus, the toxic and carcinogenic com-
pounds retained in impoundments will probably not constitute an
actual hazard to wildlife.
638
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areas of heavy human activity. Disturbance of these animals may
result in a complex pattern of redistribution which could increase
competition with other species. For example, if elk are dis-
placed onto lower elevation in winter, they may compete with
deer. Deer usually decline under these circumstances unless the
winter range is under-utilized. In addition, subdivision of
private lands along the boundaries of the National Forest can
fragment deer winter range.
As fishing increases in the high mountain lakes, the quality
of the sport fisheries will decrease, although more intensive
stocking programs can help maintain fish populations. However,
without careful management of use, relatively fragile vegetation
around these lakes may be severely damaged by campers and pack
trains, especially above timberline. Smaller wildlife (such as
pikas, ground squirrels, and marmots) could also decline in
numbers around heavily used areas, especially if dogs are permit-
ted in the high country.
D. Impacts After 2000
The ultimate impact of mining on 17,200 acres of sagebrush-
grasslands and 12,100 acres of pine forest and savanna will
depend on the success with which they are reclaimed. Although
variable,:the overall climate around Colstrip favors reclamation.
However,-during period of drought, moisture stress will reduce
the success of new plantings and alter the species composition of
existing stands.-*•
Overburden characteristics vary widely between the coal
fields of! southeastern Montana. While spoils from the existing
mine at Colstrip are not excessively saline, overburden at the
nearby Decker mine and in the neighboring Otter Creek coal field
contains layers which are salty enough to cause problems with the
initial establishment of vegetation. At Decker, it has been
shown that salinity of the surface spoil is reduced acceptably
after the first 1'or 2 years, especially if irrigated.2
Although with proper fertilization and surface treatment
spoils can be returned to a productive cover of grasses, it has
Short-term climatic fluctuations in the Colstrip area
result in severe droughts lasting 2 years or more, recurring at
1- or 2-decade intervals. Drought cycles of 15-20 years are
characteristic of this area, with drier than normal years occurring
more frequently than years with above-average precipitation.
2
Farmer, E.E., et al. Revegetation Research on the Decker
Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162.
Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974.
639
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proven more difficult to reestablish woody vegetation equivalent
to the pre-existing biological community. Ponderosa pine,
important over almost half the total mine areas, will be particu-
larly difficult to restore, both because it requires a long time
to mature and because its need for water is generally greater
than that of the grasses.
The foregoing factors suggest that reclamation efforts may
partially or completely restore grazing values in most years
barring problems with excess salts in the soil but will not
restore the original native cover.1 Thus, the original ecosystem
of mined areas will probably not be restored, since both topog-
raphic and vegetational diversity are critical factors. There-
fore, the 19,200 acres mined in the scenario should be considered
a long-term loss to wildlife such as antelope, sage grouse, and a
large number of songbirds which depend on shrubby cover at some
critical point in their life cycle.
The cumulative impacts of the direct removal of land from
agricultural production are very small compared with the local
agricultural potential of Rosebud County (Table 10-41). The
total forage value represented by the full extent of the four
strip mines of the Colstrip scenario is equivalent to the amount
of vegetation consumed in a year by 460-700 cows with calves.2
The degree to which this grazing value is restored will depend on
climatic patterns, spoil characteristics, and grazing management.
However, assuming that mined lands can be restored to only half
their original livestock carrying capacity, the total scenario
loss of livestock would only be approximately 800-1,200 cows and
calves. This total is roughly 1 percent of the 1974 inventory of
cows and calves.
Small amounts of cropland in the Armells Creek Valley will
be removed by strip mining and community expansion; some agricul-
tural land will also be preempted by the construction of new
roads in the Tongue River and Rosebud Creek valleys. While exact
acreage figures are not known, the total will be well below 1
percent of Rosebud County's 1974 cropland total of 157,400 acres.
Toward the end of the scenario, and after 2000, salinity increases
brought on by contamination of groundwater by mine leaching could
The largely discontinued agricultural practice of repeated
summer fallowing has resulted in the loss of some 380,000 acres
of cropland in Montana because of the deposition of salts in the
surface soil. Salts dissolved from the lower layers are carried
upward through evaporation into the surface. A similar problem
could arise in irrigated or fallowed spoil material. Mine
reclamation experience in this region has not covered a long
enough time span for such a phenomenon to be observed.
2
Between 5,480 and 8,370 Animal Unit Months.
640
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TABLE 10-41:
POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
FOREGONE: COLSTRIP SCENARIO3
1975-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
Past-2000b
Cumulative Total
1974 Inventory
Rosebud Countyc
Loss (% of 1974
Inventory)
Acres Lost
2,400
3,820
3,740
5,000
14,960
Animal Equivalents
Cow/Calves
40- 60
50- 80
50- 90
80-120
220-350
94,499
0.2-0.4
Sheep
5-10
5-10
10-20
25-50
25-50
15,245d
0.2-0.3
Includes rights-of-way.
Represents amount of land unreclaimed at any time,
after all mines have been in operation for 5 years.
°U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
1974 Census of Agriculture? Preliminary Report, Rosebud
County, Montana. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1976.
i
Include s lambs.
reduce the extent of irrigated agriculture locally near the
mines. However, salinities would have to rise between 10- and
100-fold to enter the range toxic to crops; this is unlikely even
in the immediate vicinity of the contamination source.
10.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts-*-
Table 10-42 summarizes expected population trends in selected
animal species over the scenario period. However, climatic
fluctuations characteristic of southeastern Montana can, and
probably will, modify these predictions considerably either by
imposing ecosystem-wide stress (drought, winter conditions) or espe-
cially benign conditions (abundant spring and summer rainfall, easy
winters).
The following discussion does not include the Bighorn
Mountains.
641
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TABLE 10-42:
PROVISIONAL POPULATION FORECASTS FOR SELECTED MAJOR SPECIES:
COLSTRIP SCENARIO
Game Animals
Mule Deer
White tail Deer
Antelope
Sage Grouse
Pheasant
Turkey
Waterfowl
Rare Species
National Level
Peregrine Falcon
Bald Eagle
Black-Footed
Ferret
1980
Continuation of
present downtrend,
independent of scenario
activity.
Continuation of
present uptrend,
independent of
scenario.
Continuation of recent
downtrend, independent
of scenario activity.
Continuation of recent.
downtrend, independent
of scenario activity.
Continuation of recent
downtrend, independent.
Little change due to
scenario activity.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change, if
present.
1990
Aggravation of downtrend through combined
influence of poaching and facility siting
in wintering area near Oolstrip.
Stabilization and possible downtrend
through poaching, habitat loss from
road construction.
Aggravation of downtrend due to poaching
and facility siting in winter concentra-
tion area near Colstrip.
Slight local decline around Colstrip.
Decline around Colstrip, Rosebud and
Artr.ells Creek drainages from habitat loss.
Little change due to scenario activity.
Little change.
Possible loss of individuals from
illegal shooting.
Possible loss of individuals from
illegal shooting or automobile col-
lision.
Little change.
2000
Possibly increased downtrend as population
growth, further construction, increase in
poaching, and additional urban and indus-
trial growth at Colstrip displace wintering
deer concentrations.
Definite downtrend due to increased
poaching and construction of heavily used
roads in all major drainage bottoms.
Probable increase in downtrend due to addi-
tional facility siting in winter concentra-
tion areas, especially around Colstrip, as
well as increased poaching.
Definite decline around Colstrip, due to
mining activities and urban influence.
Effects of mine dewatering may be locally
significant.
Continued decline, spreading to Sharpy
Creek drainage.
Possible slight downtrend in poaching
pressure is heavy.
Little change.
Increased probability of loss of individuals
from shooting.
Probable loss of individuals from shooting,
collision.
Little change, unless inhabited prairie dog
colonies are subjected to heavy shooting
pressure.
to
-------
TABLE 10-42: (Continued)
Indicators of
Ecological Change
Mining and
Reclamation
Pcaire Vole,
Cottontail
Richardson's
Ground Squirrel
Dewa taring of the
Yellowstone River
Stonecat
Carp, sucker,
burbot
1980
Little change.
Little change.
Ho change.
No change.
1990
Elimination on mined land, newly
reclaimed areas. Vole may recolonize
well-grown stands of grasses.
Elimination on newly mined land. If
spoil texture permits burrowing, may
come to be a dominant rodent on newly
reclaimed areas.
Probably no noticeable change.
Probably no noticeable change.
2000
Both species begin returning to old
reclaimed areas.
Increasing importance on reclaimed areas of
"middle age," especially if weathering
improves suitability of spoil for burrowing.
Decline on old reclaimed areas, with dense
grass stands.
Possible restriction of distribution
between Miles City and the Missouri
confluence .
Possible slight increase in dominance
in the overall fish fauna below Miles City.
U)
-------
Noticeable impacts on game animal populations arising from
scenario activities will not develop until the first construction
peak in the 1980-1990 decade. Recent wildlife population trends
of the Colstrip area have been downward since 1971, and these
trends have been projected arbitrarily over the remainder of the
1975-1980 period.
The greatest local impact on mule deer populations will
arise from the encroachment of mining and residential-urban
growth on wintering habitat near Colstrip. In addition, poaching
may be expected to have moderate to serious consequences. By the
1990-2000 decade, only scattered groups of deer may continue to
winter there. Roads passing directly through wintering areas may
also result in increases in road kills, possibly followed by
changed distribution patterns. The cumulative impact of all
these influences is expected to be a moderate decline in deer
numbers throughout the scenario area, especially around Colstrip.
Antelope around Colstrip will be affected by the same
stresses as mule deer but to a somewhat greater degree because
more wintering habitat is affected. The continued presence of
large expanses of superior antelope habitat north of the Yellowstone
will tend to reduce the regional significance of this loss.
However, by 1995, antelope may have declined to very low levels
in Rosebud County.
Of the three major game birds in the Colstrip area, pheas-
ants will suffer most from the lossi of habitat and sage grouse
least. Loss of springs and seeps and reduced stream flow due to
mine dewatering and runoff interception may also eliminate some
brood-rearing habitat for these species. However, closure of
private lands to hunting may counteract these trends to the
extent that while local declines may be observed in the immediate
vicinity of the plant sites and Colstrip, overall county popula-
tions may remain largely unaffected.
Three species currently listed as threatened by the Fish and
Wildlife Service may be found in the Colstrip area. The bald
eagle and peregrine falcon are seasonal visitors; both are sus-
ceptible to illegal shooting, but the impact of such individual
losses on overall population levels is probably outweighed by
influences on breeding habitat elsewhere.
Although apparently absent from the immediate Colstrip
vicinity, the black-footed ferret has been confirmed in Rosebud
County as late as 1972. The main threat to these animals from
the scenario developments will probably be through destruction of
prairie dog towns inhabited by ferrets. Intensive study in the
areas where most of the scenario facilities will be sited has so
far failed to discover the animals.
644
-------
The prairie falcon, recently removed from the Fish and
Wildlife Service list, is an uncommon resident which may breed in
the scenario area. These birds are also subject to illegal
shooting? if they breed in the area, they could, unlike the other
two raptor species, decline because of shooting losses.
Several species of mammals and fish can be considered as
indicators of ecological change. Reclaimed mine areas may, for a
time, take on the character of early successional communities and
support a fauna dominated by rodents. Richardson's ground
squirrel, which feeds to a large extent on weedy forbs, may be an
indicator of the formation of this kind of community, provided
that the texture of the soil permits burrowing. Species charac-
teristic of mature vegetation include the prairie vole and cot-
tontail rabbit; the first requires relatively dense stands of
grasses, while the second prefers brushy areas. Their absence in
an indication of the degree to which the vegetation has been
modified from its original structure, and their return will
signal at least partial success in restoring wildlife values.
Dewatering in the Yellowstone is expected to result in only minor
and temporary changes in the ecosystem. Such change as may be
observed would probably first be indicated by a restriction in
the distribution of the stonecat, a species especially sensitive
to flow conditions, below Miles City. The somewhat more perva-
sive ecological change which might result from cumulative water
withdrawals for industry outside the immediate scenario area
would be signaled by an increase in the dominance of such gener-
alist fish species as carp; catfish, and suckers.
Table 10-43 ranks the major impacts on the ecosystem into
three classes, based on their severity and extent. Class C
includes-impacts which are expected to be very localized (within a
few square miles) and thus will not create measurable changes in
the stability of areawide animal populations. Thus, direct
habitat removal is included until 1980, as are alterations in
groundwater discharge. Water withdrawals from the Yellowstone
(for this section) are also placed in Class C because of the
infrequency with which they would occasion adverse impacts and
because the natural adaptive characteristics of the ecosystem are
considered capable of compensating for such infrequent distur-
bances.
Class B impacts include those that affect animal populations
which range over larger areas (the size of National Forests or
counties) . This class includes game poaching and illegal shooting
of non-game species, such as raptors, and growing demands on the
recreational resources of the two nearby national forests.
Class A impacts include those which are considered to be the
key factors involved in the projected declines of animal popula-
tions discussed above. Habitat loss and fragmentation, particu-
larly in limited streamside habitats and winter concentration
645
-------
TABLE 10-43: SUMMARY OF MAJOR ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Impact
Category
Class A
Class B
Class C
Uncertain
1975-1980
Fragmentation of
deer and antelope
wintering areas by
facility, town
siting, mining.
Illegal shooting
Grazing losses
Loss of irrigated
cropland
Contamination of
Armells Creek by
sewage from septic
systems
1980-2000
Continued Fragmenta-
tion of sagebrush-
grassland habitat.
Fragmentation of
riparian habitats.
Illegal shooting
Increased recrea-
tional pressure on
national forests
Grazing losses
Loss of irrigated
cropland
Water withdrawal
from Yellowstone
Acute S02 damage
to crops
Contamination of
Armells Creek by
sewage from septic
systems
Chronic S02 damage
to sensitive vege-
tation
Local flow depletions
of springs and seeps
from mine dewatering
Contamination of
groundwater from
mine spoil leaching
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
areas, are key aspects of the scenario that cannot be materially
reduced. Because critical wildlife habitats are affected, the
severity of the impact cannot be much lessened by management of
remaining lands, as can be done with livestock grazing. The
646
-------
limitations of geology and climate on reclamation also curtail
the potential restoration of wildlife values on mined lands.
10.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP
The primary benefits of the hypothetical energy developments
in the Colstrip area will be the production and shipment of 500
million cubic feet of synthetic natural gas per day, 100,000
barrels per day of synthetic crude oil, and 3,000 megawatts of
electricity. However, these benefits clearly will accrue pri-
marily to people outside the area. Local benefits are princi-
pally economic and include increased tax revenues for state as
well as county and local governments, increased retail and whole-
sale trade, and secondary economic development. New revenues
will provide for expansion of municipal services, such as water
distribution and treatment systems, police and fire protection
services, and improved health care facilities. Local governments
will generally be hardepressed initially to provide the services
for the increased population. Existing school, housing, health,
and public safety services will be overwhelmed at the outset by
the influx of workers and their families. For example, in
Rosebud County a four^fold increase in population by 2000 will
result in increases in both the demand for housing and for educa-
tional facilities. Revenues produced by the development will be
adequate to pay for the education demands, but municipal services
in the 1975-1980 time frame will be inadequate for the construc-
tion population as revenues do not improve until the operation
phase in the mid-1980's.
Many of the negative impacts associated with increased popu-
lation could be minimized if coal rather than electricity and
synthetic oil and gas was exported from the Colstrip area.
Construction impacts would be reduced while revenue benefits to
the state from producing the resource would continue. However,
elimination of the conversion facilities would substantially
decrease both capital investment and additions to the property
tax base which provide for expanded local public services.
Alternative rates of development or scheduling affect the social
impacts from construction phases of the energy developments. If
the construction phases of the different facilities were coordi-
nated, the minor boom and bust cycles could be avoided. This
wpuld be a significant 'advantage for planning housing and educa-
tional facilities.
Air quality impacts from the energy development at Colstrip
will be limited to the violation of the federal ambient hydro-
carbons (HC) standard. The violation will occur in connection with
the Synthoil facility and the increased urban growth at Colstrip.
All other federal standards, as well as Environmental Protection
Agency's Non-Significant Deterioration increments,, will be met.
Control of fugitive HC at Colstrip from the Synthoil facility are
difficult to achieve short of locating the plant elsewhere.
647
-------
Water quality impacts may be minimized by achieving FWPCA
zero discharge goals. The most significant water quality
impact will be associated with municipal water treatment facili-
ties. It is doubtful that Forsyth, the only community in Rosebud
County which currently has a wastewater treatment facility, will
be able to expand its facility at the rate necessary to match the
projected population growth. The other communities rely on
septic tanks, which will pose a hazard to groundwater quality.
This may ultimately pose a special hazard to the Colstrip resi-
dents because they will be relying on groundwater resources for
their municipal water needs.
Meeting the water requirements of the energy development
will take a small fraction of the average flow of the Yellowstone
River, but this may be significant during periods of low flow.
Groundwater aquifer systems in the Colstrip area may be depleted
as a result of Colstrip1s increasing municipal requirements, coal
mine dewatering practices, and decreased surface runoff, which
will increase the infiltration rate.
Flow reduction in the Yellowstone can be reduced by wet/dry
or dry cooling of the power plants at greater economic cost but
with savings of up to 75 percent of the water demand for the
energy facilities. A minimum of water from the Yellowstone would
be used if the coal was shipped out of the region before conver-
sion.
Significant ecological impacts include converting approxi-
mately 60,000 acres of vegetation to plants and mines by the year
2000. Even though much of this land will be returned to
grassland following reclamation, the change, together with habi-
tat fragmentation, will likely decrease productivity of selected
species. Combined with habitat attrition and poaching from the
increased population, some species of game will be adversely
affected unless positive steps are initiated in protection and
game management.
648
-------
CHAPTER 11
THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEULAH AREA
11.1 INTRODUCTION
The hypothetical energy development proposed in the Beulah
scenario will take place in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties
in west-central North Dakota, although most development is cen-
tered around Beulah in Mercer County (Figure 11-1). This devel-
opment consists of five surface coal mines that will produce from
10-20 million tons per year, a 3,000 megawatts-electric mine-
mouth electric generation plant, and four coal gasification
plants, each capable of producing 250 million standard cubic feet
per day.l The location of these facilities is shown in Figure
11-2. Although some of the electricity and gas will be distrib-
uted within North Dakota, most of the energy will be shipped to
demand centers farther eastward via gas pipelines and electrical
transmission lines. Construction of these facilities began in
1975, and all the facilities will be fully operational by 2000.
The technologies to be deployed and the timetable for their
deployment are presented in Table 11-1.
The three-county area is generally characterized by low
unemployment, farming and privately owned lands. Aside from
agriculture, the remainder of the laborforce is distributed
mostly in the service and trade industries and government ser-
vices. Manufacturing has been extremely limited. The reliance
on agriculture has resulted in a steadily shrinking population
(30 percent smaller in 1970 than in 1950).
The topography is primarily gently rolling prairies; the
climate is semiarid with extreme seasonal variations in tempera-
ture. Much of the past ecological diversity has recently given
While this hypothetical development may parallel develop-
ment proposed by Baukol-Noonan, Minnkota Power Cooperative,
Knife River Coal Mining, Consolidation Coal, Montana-Dakota
Utilities, Coteau Properties, American Natural Gas, BasinV
Electric Power Cooperative, United Power Association, Falk^rk
Mining, and others, the development identified here is hypothet-
ical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure
the assessment of a particular combination of technologies and
existing conditions.
649
-------
Ul
o
£:, !
\
',;-.': 2,.::::^'":\
FIGURE 11-1: THE BEULAH SCENARIO AREA
-------
:v%- 1
•
' ""
,.
| ,*:\ry, feet iiniMiiiiiiiiitiiMiiiirfCtMtyiey£M'
2090
Below 2000 —» —
FIGURE 11-2: ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO
-------
TABLE 11-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT BEULAH
Resources
Coaia (billions of tons)
Resources 2
Proved Reserves 1.6
Technologies
Extraction
Coal
Five surface mines of varying
capacity using draglines
Conversion
One 3,000-MWe power plant consisting pf
four 750-MWe turbine-generators; 34%
plant efficiency; 80% efficient lime-
stone scrubbers; 99% efficient electro-
static precipitator, and wet forced-draft
cooling towers
Two Lurgi' coal gasification plants
operating at 73% thermal efficiency;
nickhl-catalyzed methanation process;
Claus plant H2S removal; and wet forced-
draft cooling towers
Two Synthane coal gasification plants
operating at 80% thermal efficiency;
nickel-catalyzed methanation process;
Claus plant H2S removal; wet forced-
draft cooling towers
Transporation
Gas
Two 30-inch pipelines
Electricity
Pour extra-high voltage lines
Characteristics
Coalb
Heat Content 7,070 Btu's/lb
Moisture 36 %
Volatile Matter 40 %
Fixed Carbon 32 %
Ash 6 %
Sulfur 0.8 %
Facility
Size
19. 2 MMtpy
10.8 MMtpy
10.8 MMtpy
9.6 MMtpy
9.6 MMtpy
750 MWe
750 MWe
1,500 MWe
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd
250 MMcf
250 MMcf
500 kV
500 kV
500 XV
(2 lines)
Completion
Date
1980
1982
1987
1995
2000
1977
1979
1980
1982
1987
1995
2000
1982
1995
1977
1979
198O
Facility
Serviced
Power Plant
Lurgi
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthane
Lurgi
Synthane
Power Plant
Power Plant
Fewer Plant
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
H2S = hydrogen sulfide
kV = kilovolts
MMscfd =.million standard cubic feet per day
MMtpy = million tons per day
MWe = megawatts-electric
Anderson, Donald L. Regional analysis of the U.S. Electric Power Industry. Vol. 4A: Coal
Resources in the United States, for U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration.
Springfield, va.: National Technical Information Service, 1975. BNWL-B-415/V4A.
Ctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Coal Character-
istics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract No. 68-02-1302.
Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975. Since these values represent averages, they
do not sum precisely to 100.
652
-------
way to intensive livestock grazing and cultivation, and aquatic
habitats have been modified by reservoirs. Groundwater and sur-
face water are available in the area, the latter primarily from
the Missouri River and the Garrison Reservoir. Air quality is
generally good with good dispersion conditions prevailing
throughout the year. Selected characteristics of the area are
summarized in Table 11-2. Elaborations of these characteristics
are introduced as required to explain the impact analyses
reported in this chapter.
TABLE 11-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
BEULAH AREA
Environment
Elevation
Precipitation
(annual)
Temperatures
January minimum
July maximum
Vegetation
1,700-2,200 feet
17 inches
860F
Mixed-grass prairie with
stream-side woodlands
Social and Economic3
Land Ownership
Land Use
Population Density
Unemployment
Income
County Government
City (Beulah) Government
Taxation
County Revenues (1972)
Private ownership in excess of
90%
97% agriculture
5.9 per square mile
3.6%
$11,270 per capita annual
Board of Commissioners
Mayor-Counci1
Primarily property tax
$750,000
Characteristics for Mercer County, 1975 currency.
653
-------
11.2 AIR IMPACTS
11.2.1 Existing Conditions
A. Background Pollutants
Air quality in the Beulah area is currently affected
by four lignite-fired power plants ranging . from 13.5 MWe
(megawatts-electric) to 23.5 MWe. Measurements of criteria
pollutant1 concentrations taken in the Beulah area do
not indicate any violations of the established standards for
particulates, sulfur dioxide (S02), or nitrogen dioxide (N02).
Based on these measurements, annual average background levels
for the above mentioned pollutants have been estimated (in
micrograms per cubic meter [yg/ni3]) as: particulates, 39; S02*
14; and N02, 4.2
B. Meteorological Conditions
The worst dispersion conditions for the Beulah area are
associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less
than 5-10 miles per hour), persistent wind direction, and
relatively low mixing depths.3 These conditions are likely to
increase concentrations of pollutants from both ground-level and
elevated sources.^ Since worst-case conditions differ at each
site, predicted annual average pollutant levels vary among
sites even if pollutant sources are identical. Prolonged
periods of air stagnation are uncommon in the Beulah area
because of moderate to strong winds, relatively high mixing
depths, and a general lack of stagnating high-pressure systems.
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: carbon monoxide, non-methane hydrocarbons,
nitrogen oxides, oxidants, particulates, and sulfur dioxide. The
term "hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to non-methane HC.
2
These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's
best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates
of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time.
Measurements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are
not available in the rural areas. However, high-background HC
levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West
and may occur here. Background CO levels are assumed rela-
tively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the area
are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles.
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
4
Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that
emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are
stack emissions.
654
-------
However, meteorological conditions in the area are generally
unfavorable for pollution dispersion approximately 30 percent of
the time. Hence, plume impaction1 and limited mixing of plumes
caused by air inversions at plume height can be expected with
some regularity.2 Favorable dispersion conditions associated
with moderate winds and large mixing depths are expected less
than 15 percent of the time.
The pollution dispersion potential for the Beulah area may
be expected to vary considerably with the season and time of
day. Poor dispersion most frequently occurs in fall and winter
mornings due largely to lower wind speeds and mixing depths.
11.2.2 Emission Sources
The primary emission sources in the Beulah scenario are a
power plant, four conversion facilities (two Lurgi and two Syn-
thane), supporting surface mines, and those associated with
population increases. Pollution from energy-related population
increases was estimated from available data on average emissions
per person in several western cities.3 Most mine-related pol-
lution originates from diesel engine combustion products,
primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), and particu-
lates. Although dust suppression techniques are hypothesized in
the scenario, some additional particulates will come from
blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.4
The hypothetical power plant in this scenario has four
750-MWe boilers, each with its own stack.5 The plant is equipped
Plume impaction is the limited atmospheric mixing of stack
plumes because of containment by elevated terrain and stable air
conditions.
2
See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.
Ashville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975.
Refer to the Introduction to Part II for identification of
these cities and references to methods used to model urban mete-
orological conditions. This scenario models only concentrations
for Beulah, North Dakota.
4
The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency is investigating this question and will be used
to inform further impact analysis.
Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 33.1
feet, mass flow rates of 3.10 x 10^ cubic feet per minute, an exit
velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180°F.
655
-------
with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) which removes 99 percent
of the particulates and a scrubber which removes 80 percent
of the S02 and 40 percent of the N02. The plant has two 75,000-
barrel storage tanks, with standard floating roof construction,
each of which will emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.
The power plant and the two coal conversion facilities are
cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each of the various
cells in the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of 15,330
gallons per minute and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a
mist.l The circulating water has a total dissolved solids con-
tent of 10,000 parts per million. This results in a salt emis-
sion rate of 21,200 pounds per year for each cell.2
Table 11-3 gives emissions of the five criteria pollutants
for each of the three facilities. In all three cases, most
TABLE 11-3:
EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES
(pounds per hour)
Facility3
Power Plant
Mine
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
Particulates
24
3,012
7
511
8
685
SO 2
16
13,848
5
681
5
970
NOX
215
21,084
66
2,407
69
2,108
HC
130
652
8
49
8
58
CO
25
2,176
40
321
42
196
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
NOx = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
aThe Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities each produce
250 million standard cubic feet per day, and each plant has
three stacks. A detailed description of each plant is con-
tained in the Energy Resource Development Systems description
to be published as a separate report in 1977.
These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable esti-
mates of current industrial practices.
2
! The power plant has 64 cells, each Lurgi plant has 11, and
each Synthane plant has 6.
656
-------
emissions are attributable to the plants, rather than the mines.
The largest single contributor to total emissions for all pollu-
tants is the power plant. For all five pollutants, the Lurgi
plant has the smallest total emissions.
11.2.3 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
1. Pollution from Facilities
Construction of the hypothetical power plant and Lurgi gasi-
fication plant will begin in this period, with the power plant
becoming fully operational by 1980. Air quality impacts associ-
ated with the construction phases of these plants or those
coming on-line by 1990 or 2000 will be minimal. However, con-
struction processes may increase wind-blown dust, causing pos-
sible periodic violations of 24-hour ambientparticulate standards.
Table 11-4 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by the power plant and its supporting
surface mine. These pollutants (particulates, SO2, NO2, and HC)
are regulated by federal and North Dakota state ambient air
quality standards (also shown in Table 11-4). This information
shows that the typical and peak concentrations associated with
the plant and with the plant and mine combination, when added
to existing background levels, will be well below all federal
and most state ambient standards. Only the North Dakota 1-hour
S02 and N02 standards will be violated; however, the N02 stan-
dards will be exceeded by a factor of 7.
Table 11-4 also lists Non-Significant Deterioration (NSD)
standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that
can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with
air quality better than that allowed by ambient air standards). 1
"Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest areas, such as
national parks and forests.2 Typical concentrations of the
short-term (less than 24-hours) averaging time for SO2 from the
power plant and mine combination will exceed allowable Class I
Non-Significant Deterioration standards apply only to
particulates and sulfur dioxide.
2
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all Non-Significant Deterioration areas Class II and established
a process requiring petitions and public hearings for redesig-
nating areas Class I or Class III. A Class II designation is for
areas which have moderate, well-controlled energy, or industrial
development and permits less deterioration than that allowed by
federal secondary ambient standards. Class III areas allow
deterioration to the level of secondary standards.
657
-------
TABLE 11-4:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM POWER PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Ul
oo
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
S02
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
1-hour
Annual
1-hour
HCd
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background
39
14
4
Typical
3.7
6.2
31
94
6.9
Peak
Plant
0.3
26
1.3
112
692
863
2.3
1,456.0
41
Plant
and Mine
1.4
26
1.8
112
692
863
12
1,456.0
50
Beulah
0.4
20
0.6
81
369
3
26
Standardsb
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
North
Dakota
60
150
60
260
715
100
200
.160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
HC = hydrocarbons
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
S02 ** sulfur dioxide
are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical power plant/mine combination. Annual average
background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Concentrations over
Beulah are largely attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect protect public health and
and welfare, respectively. All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more
than onc6 per year. Non-Significant Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be
added to areas of relatively clean air, such as national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter
14.
clt is assumed that all NOX from plant sources is converted to N02. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour 1IC atniidard is monauriid at 0-9 a.m.
-------
increments. in addition, peak concentrations attributable to the
power plant and the plant and mine combination will far exceed
the 24-hour and 3-hour Class I increments for both particulates
and S02- Class I increments for SC»2 (24-hour and 3-hour aver-
aging times) will be exceeded by a factor greater than 20. The
peak SO2 concentration for the power plant and the plant and
mine combination will also cause the Class II 24-hour increment
to be exceeded.
Since the plant exceeds some Class I increments, it would have to
be located far enough away from any such areas so that emissions will
be diluted by atmospheric mixing to allowable concentrations prior to
reaching any Class I area. The distance required for this dilution
(which varies by facility type , size, emission controls , and meteoro-
logical conditions) in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around
Class I and Class II areas .1 Current Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) regulations would require a 72-mile buffer zone between the
power plant and a Class I area boundary. Since there are no current or
potential Class I areas within the power plant' s buffer zone, no Class
I standards are expected to be violated.
2. Pollution from the Town
The town of Beulah is projected to grow from a 1975 popu-
lation of 1,350 to 2,300 by 1980. This increase will contribute
to increases in pollution concentrations from urban sources.
Table 11-5 shows predicted concentrations of the five criteria
pollutants measured at the center of the town and at a point 3
miles from the center of town.
When concentrations from urban sources only are added to
background levels, no federal or North Dakota state ambient
standards will be exceeded.
B. Impacts to 1990
1. Pollution from Facilities
The Lurgi gasification plant will become operational in
1982. A second Lurgi plant will be constructed and become
operational in 1987. Table 11-6 summarizes typical and peak
pollution concentrations once these developments become oper-
ational. Peak concentrations from these new plants are not
Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not
be symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illu-
strated by area "wind roses", which show wind direction patterns
and strengths for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direc-
tion of Non-Significant Deterioration areas from energy facili-
ties will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.
659
-------
TABLE 11-5:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS AT BEULAH
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
-- Averaging Time
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
SO,
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
1-hour
N02C
Annual
1-hour
d
HC
3-hour
CO
8-hour
1-hour
Concentrations3
Background
39
14
4
Mid-Town Point
1980
5
17
3
9
15
18
8
54
120
506
829
1985
7
24
4
14
24
29
11
79
180
792
1,298
1995
8
27
5
15
27
32
14
97
210
924
1,514
Rural Point
1980
1
17
0
9
15
18
1
54
120
506
829
1985
1
24
0
14
24
29
1
79
180
792
1,298
1995
2
27
1
15
27
32
2
97
210
924
1,514
Standards
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
10,000
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
10,000
North Dakota
60
150
60
260
715
100
200
160
10,000
CO = carbon monoxide
HC = hydrocarbons
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
These are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concentrations are taken from
Table 7-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the center of town.
"Primary and Secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the public health and
welfare, respectively.
clt is assumed that 50 percent of nitrogen oxide from urban sources is converted to N02- Refer to the
Introduction to Part- II.
<5The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
TABLE 11-6:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM LURGI PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
SOj
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
1-hour
N02C
Annual
1-hour
HCd
3 -hour
Concentrations3
Background
39
14
4
Typical
2.5
1.6
7.4
9.3
12
0.9
Peak
Plant
0.3
3.4
0.4
5.2
35
43
0.5
146
2.4
and Mine
0.3
5.7
0.4
6.9
35
43
1.8
157
14
Beulah
Lurgi I
0.1
1.8
0.2
2.5
8.1
0.5
1.2
Lurgi II
0.2
2.8
0.4
3.9
32
0.5
4.9
Standards'3
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80.
365
100
160
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
1tfnv-4-V
norun
Dakota
60
150
60
260
715
100
200
160
Non -Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
HC
NO,
hydrocarbons
= nitrogen dioxide
SOj = sulfur dioxide
are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Lurgi plant/mine combination. Annual average background
levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Most of the peak concentrations from the plant
and mine combination are attributable to the mine, with the exception of annual SOj levels. Concentrations over Beulah are largely
attributable to the plant.
"Primary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
All standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to area of relatively clean air, such as
national, forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
°It is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N02. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
The 3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
expected to cause violations of federal or North Dakota state
ambient air standards.l
These facilities will easily meet all Class II NSD incre-
ments, although the Class I increment for 24- and 3-hour SO2
concentrations will be exceeded slightly. Due to the relatively
small nature of the N3D violation, the EPA requires a Class I
buffer zone of only 13.1 miles for each plant. Since there are
no current or proposed Class I areas within these buffer zones,
no significant deterioration problems are anticipated.
2. Pollution from the Town
Beulah's population is predicted to grow to 4,000 by 1985,
then to decline to 2,200 by 1990. The concentrations of urban
pollutants for 1985 are shown in Table 11-5. The 3-hour HC concen-
trations predicted for 1985 will violate federal primary and
secondary standards as well as North Dakota air quality stan-
dards. All other criteria pollutant concentrations are expected
to be well within established standards.
C. Impacts to 2000
1. Pollution from Facilities
Two Synthane gasification plants will become operational
between 1990 and 2000. Table 11-7 gives typical concentrations
from the plant, peak concentrations from the plant, and peak
concentrations from the combination of the plant and its surface
mine. These data show no violations of any federal or state
ambient air standards from the Synthane facilities.2
Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal
because of the hypothetical distances between them. If the wind
blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes will interact.
However, the resulting concentrations would be less than those
produced by either plant and mine combination when the wind
blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration).
The Lurgi plant is too far away to affect peak concentrations.
Had the plants been sited closer together, the probability of
interactions would increase. Sensitivity analysis of this
siting consideration will be done during the remainder of the
study.
2
Interactions between the Synthane plants, power plant, and
Lurgi plants will cause increases in annual peak concentrations.
However, these increases are expected to be relatively small,
(less than 3 micrograms for particulates and sulfur dioxide and
less than 15 micrograms for nitrogen dioxide and should not
violate any standards.
662
-------
TABLE 11-7:
POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM SYNTHANE PLANT/MINE COMBINATION
(micro-grams per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Particulate
Annual
24-hour
SO 2
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
1-hour
NO2C
Annual
1-hour
3-hour
a
Concentrations
Background
39
14
4
Typical
1.7
2.2
8.7
11
37
1.1
Peak
Plant
0.3
4.2
0.4
6.3
39
49
98
Plant and Mine
0.4
6.7
0.5
7.5
39
49
1.9
•157
23
Beulah
Synthane
1 2
0.2
4.2
0.3
5.8
22
1.6
3.1
1
0.3
1.3
2
0.6
0.2
Standards^
Ambient
Primary
75
260
80
365
100
160
^
Secondary
60
150
1,300
100
160
North Dakota
60
150
60
260
715
100
200
160
Non-Significant
Deterioration
Class I
5
10
2
5
25
Class II
10
30
15
100
700
CTl
CTi
U)
= Sulfur Dioxide
HC = Hydrocarbons
NO2 = Nitrogen Dioxide
aThese are predicted ground-level concentrations from the hypothetical Synthane gasification facility and supporting mine. Annual
average background levels are considered to be the best estimates of short-term background levels. Concentrations over Beulah
are largely attributable to the plant.
b"Pri»ary and Secondary" refer to federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect public health and welfare, respectively.
^11 standards for averaging times other than the annual average are not to be exceeded more than opce per year. Non-Significant
Deterioration standards are the allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air, such as
national forests. These standards are discussed in detail in Chapter 14.
clt is assumed that all nitrogen oxide from plant sources is converted to N02. Refer to the Introduction to Part II.
3-hour HC standard is measured at 6-9 a.m.
-------
Peak concentrations from the Synthane plants will exceed
Class I NSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02 levels. These
violations will require an 18.6-mile buffer zone between each
plant and any designated Class I area.
2. Pollution from the Town
During the 1900-2000 decade, the town of Beulah will again
record an increase and then a decrease in population. The
maximum population will reach 4,800 in 1995, and increased pollu-
tion concentrations will be associated with this growth (Table
11-5). As was the case in 1985, only 3-hour HC levels will
exceed any federal or state ambient air standards. All other
pollutant concentrations fall well within existing air quality
standards.
11.2.4 Other Air Impacts
Seven additional categories of potential air impacts have
received preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been made
to identify sources of problems and how energy development may
affect the extent of the problems during the next 25 years.
These categories of potential impacts are sulfates, oxidants,
fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling
tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.L
No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates. If information does become
available, nitrates may be analyzed during the remainder of the
project. See: Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitro-
genous Compounds in the Environment, U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1973.
664
-------
A. Sulfates
Very little is known about sulfate concentrations likely to
result from western energy development. However, one study
suggests that for Oil shale retorting, peak conversion rates of
S02 to sulfates in plumes are less than 1 percent.1 Applying
this ratio to plants in the Beulah scenario results in peak
24-hour sulfate concentrations of less than 1 iag/m3. This is
well below EPA's suggested danger point of 12 yg/m3 for a 24-
hour average.2
B. Oxidants
Oxidants (which include compounds such as ozone, aldehydes,
peroxides, peroxyacyl nitrates, chlorine, and bromine can be
emitted from specific sources or formed in the atmosphere. For
example, oxidants can be formed when HC combine with NOx- Too
little is known about the actual conversion processes that form
oxidants to be able to predict concentrations from power plants.
However, the relatively low peak concentrations of HC from the
power plant and its associated mine (50 yg/m3) suggest that an
oxidant problem will probably not result from that source alone.
An oxidant problem would itor6 likely result from the combination
of background HC and the high levels of NOX emitted in the power
plant plume. Since background HC levels are unknown, the extent
of this problem has not been predicted.
In only one of several cases investigated3 did oxidant
formation from coal gasification plants exceed federal stand-
ards. However, these cases are not comparable to the Lurgi and
Synthane facilities hypothesized in this scenario, and thus
levels of oxidants formed from the combination of HC and NO2
Nordsieck, R., et al> Impact of Energy Resource Develop-
ment on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States,
Draft Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract
No. 68-01-2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental
Research and Technology, Western Technical Center, 1975. This
study assumed that sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the plumes was con-
verted to sulfate at the rate of 1 percent per hour independent
of humidity, clouds, or photochemically related reaction inten-
sity. Reported results indicate peak sulfate levels ranging
from 0.1 to 1.6 percent of the corresponding peak S02 levels
from oil shale retorting. Recent work in Scandinavia suggests
that acid-forming sulfates arriving in Norway are complex
ammonium sulfates formed by a catalytic and/or photochemical
process which varies with the season.
2Ibid.
665
-------
were not predicted. Concentrations of HC in this scenario are
much smaller than those found in the one case in which standards
were violated. Although the N02 levels are roughly equal, vio-
lation of oxidant concentrations from the gasification facilities
in this scenario are not expected, based on this one source of
information.
HC concentrations over Beulah may create an oxidant - problem
because they are expected to reach levels somewhat in excess of
federal and state standards. Since oxidant formation may occur
relatively slowly (i.e. one or more hours), this problem will be
less when wind conditions move pollutants rapidly away from the
town. The relatively small area of Beulah will also work to
lessen the impact of oxidant formation.
C. Fine Particulates
Fine particulates (those less than 3 microns in diameter)
are primarily ash and coal particles emitted by the plants.J-
Current information suggests that particulate emissions con-
trolled by ESP's have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns, and
uncontrolled particulates have a mean diameter of about 10
microns.2 In general, the higher the efficiency of the ESP, the
smaller the mean diameter of the particles remaining in plant
plumes. The high-efficiency ESP's (99-percent removal) in this
scenario are estimated to remove enough coarse particulates so
that fine particulates will account for about 50 percent of the
total particulate concentrations in plant plumes. This percen-
tage applies to the power plant and Lurgi and Synthane gasifi-
cation processes. Health effects from fine particulates are
discussed in Section 12.6.
D. Long-Range Visibility
One impact of very fine particulates (0.1-1.0 microns in
diameter) is that they reduce long-range visibility. Particu-
lates suspended in the atmosphere scatter light and thus with
increased concentrations and/or distances will eventually reduce
the contrast between an object and its background below the
level required by the human eye to distinguish the object from
Fine particulates produced by atmospheric chemical reac-
tions take long enough to form so they occur long distances from
the plants.
2
Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles this
diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program to Model the Plume
Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station,
Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California
Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974.
666
-------
its background. Estimates of visual ranges for this scenario
are based on empirical relationships between visual distance
and fine particulate concentrations.^
Visibility in the region of this scenario is assumed to
average about 60 miles. The greatest reduction in average visi-
bility will occur roughly along a north-south line through
Beulah. As the facilities in this scenario become operational,
average visibility will eventually decrease to 54 miles by the
year 2000. Air stagnation episodes will cause substantially
greater reductions.
E. Plume Opacity
Pine particulates make plumes opaque in the same way they
limit long-range visibility. Although ESP's will remove enough
particulates for the power plant in this scenario to meet emis-
sion standards, stack plumes will still exceed the 20-percent
opacity standard.2 Thus, plumes would probably be visible at
the stack exit and for some distance downwind. Although no
opacity standards exist for gasification plants, the Lurgi and
Synthane plants all have more than one stack which could produce
plumes with greater than 20-percent opacity.
F. Cooling Tower Salt Deposition
Estimated salt deposition rates from cooling tower drift
for the facilities in this scenario are shown in Table 11-8.
These rates are relatively low and decrease rapidly beyond 1.1
miles. Some interaction of salt deposition from the various
plants will occur. For example, one area of interaction around
the periphery of the second Lurgi gasification plant will
receive a cumulative total of 7 pounds per acre per year (lb/
acre/yr), and the immediate vicinity of the second Lurgi plant
Charlson, R.J., N.C. Ahlquist, and H. Horvath. "On the
Generality of; Correlation of Atmospheric Aerosol Mass Concen-
tration and Light Scatter." ..Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 2
(September 1968), pp. 455-64. Since the model is designed for
urban areas, its use in rural areas yields results that are only
approximate.
2
The Federal New Source Performance Standard for electric
utilities requires both that plume opacity be less than 20 per-
cent and that particulate emissions not exceed 0.1 pound of
particulates per million British thermal unit's heat input. The
plume opacity requirements are not as likely to be as strictly
met as the particulate emissions standard because it would
require removal of 99.9 percent of all plume particulates, which
would increase electrostatic precipitator costs.
667
-------
TABLE 11-8: SALT DEPOSITION RATE
f
Plant
Power Plant
Lurgi Gasification (each)
Synthane Gasification (each)
Average Salt Deposition Rate
(pounds per acre per year)
l.lmilesa
91
16
8.5
1.1-9.3
miles
5.8
1
0.6
9.3-27.8
miles
0.2
0.03
0.02
aDiameter of circles bounding the area subject to the salt
deposition rate.
will receive an average of about 22 Ib/acre/yr. The effect of
salt on the area will depend on soil conditions, rainfall, and
existing vegetation.
G. Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing
The frequency of fogging or icing potential from cooling
towers in the Beulah area is generally low. On occasion, how-
ever, plumes capable of causing these conditions have been
observed extending several thousand feet from the towers. Since
several highways are in the vicinity of the cooling towers, hazardous
driving conditions from ice and fog will occasionally occur.
11.2.5 Summary of Air Impacts
A. Air Quality
Five new facilities are projected for the Beulah area by
the year 2000. No federal ambient standards will be violated by
any of the facilities, but North Dakota's 1-hour SO2 and NO2
standards will be violated by emissions from the power plant.
Each of the facilities will violate several NSD allowable
increments. Peak concentrations from the power plant will
exceed Class II increments for 24-hour S02 and Class I incre-
ments for 24-hour and 3-hour SO2- The power plant will also
exceed Class I increments for 24-hour particulates. In addition,
typical concentrations from the plant will violate one short-
term S02 increment. Peak concentrations from the Lurgi and
Synthane plants will violate Class I increments for expected
24-hour and 3-hour S02 levels. Because of these violations,
each of the facilities will require buffer zones. The largest
buffer zone will be required ,for the power plant (72 miles),
668
-------
TABLE 11-9:
CONCENTRATIONS FROM MINIMAL EMISSION CONTROLS1
(micrograms per cubic meter)
SO 2
Averaging
Time
Annual
24-hour
3 -hour
1-hour
Concentration
3.4
292
1,806
2,252
Standards
Primary
80
365
Secondary
1,300
North Dakota
60
260
715
S02 - sulfur dioxide
aThese are maximum concentrations which assume 48-percent SO2
removal, which would meet the federal New Source Performance Stan-
of 1. 2 pounds of S02 per million British thermal units of heat input.
followed by the Synthane plants (18.6 miles), and the Lurgi
plants (13.1 miles).
Population increases in Beulah will add to existing concen-
trations and create possible pollution problems. By 1985, both
federal and North Dakota ambient standards for 3-hour HC will be
violated.
Several other categories of air impacts have received only
preliminary attention. Although our information suggests that
oxidant problems are unlikely, they may occur (as may problems
from fine particulates). Plumes from the stacks at all facili-
ties will be visible, and power plant stack may exceed the 20-
percent opacity standard. Long-range visibility will be reduced
from the current average of 60 miles to about 54 miles by the
year 2000.
B. Alternative Emission Controls
Pollution concentrations from the power plant would vary if
emission control systems with other efficiencies were used.
For example, Table 11-9 gives SO2 pollution concentrations which
would result if the plant used only enough control to meet most New
Source Performance Standards; that is, if the plant removed only
48 percent of the SO2 rather than the 80 percent currently hypo-
thesized in this scenario.1 These data show that resulting
These efficiencies would probably not meet the NSPS opacity
standard. New Source Performance Standards do not exist for
gasification plants. The Lurgi and Synthane plants meet all
Class II increments in this scenario.
669
-------
TABLE 11-10:
ALTERNATIVES FOR MEETING
CLASS II INCREMENTS
Pollutant
Averaging Time
Sulfur Dioxide
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
Required Emission
Removal (%)
0
83
80
67
98.8
Plant Capacity
(megawatts-electric)
> 3,000
> 2,670
> 3,000
> 3,000
3,000
= is greater than.
concentrations would violate either federal or North Dakota
ambient standards for all but the annual averaging time.
Other alternatives are for the plants to increase the effi-
ciency of emission controls or to reduce total plant capacity to
meet all NSD Class II increments. The information in Table 11-10
shows that 83-percent S02 removal and 98.8-percent particulate
removal would be required to meet all allowable Class II incre-
ments. 1 Alternatively, the plant could meet Class II require-
ments by reducing output to 2,670 MWe.2
C. Data Availability
Data availability and quality have limited the impact
analysis reported in this chapter. These factors have primarily
affected estimation of long-range visibility, plume opacity,
oxidant formation, sulfates, nitrates, and areawide formation of
trace materials. Expected improvements in data and analysis
capacities include:
1. Improved understanding of areawide pollutant dispersion
by monitoring currently being conducted under the
auspices of the EPA.
Removal rates of 83 percent for sulfur dioxide and 98.9
percent for particulates are possible using existing technology.
More attention will be given to technological feasibility of
highly efficient control systems during the remainder of the project.
2
This projection assumes concentrations are directly pro-
portional to megawatt output.
670
-------
2. Improved understanding of pollutant emissions from
electrical generation, gasification, and liquefaction.
This includes the effect of pollutants on visibility.
3. More information on the amounts and reactivity of
trace elements from coals for alternative conversion
processes. This would improve estimates of fallout
and rainout from plumes.
11.3 WATER IMPACTS
11.3.1 Introduction
The main source of water in the Beulah scenario area is the
Upper Missouri River (see Figure 11-3) . Water is available
either from the rivers in the area or from Lake Sakakawea.
Although of lesser importance, the Knife River is also capable
of supplying water to some energy developments. Annual rainfall
averages about 15 inches, and annual snowfall averages about 36
inches.
This section identifies the sources and uses of water
required for energy development, the residuals that will be gen-
erated, and the water availability and quality impacts that are
likely to result.
11.3.2 Existing Conditions
A. Groundwater
The Beulah scenario area is located on the southeastern
edge of the Williston Basin, a large sedimentary basin encom-
passing much of western North Dakota and eastern Montana.
Groundwater is available from deep bedrock aquifers, shallow
sandstone aquifers, lignite aquifers, and alluvial aquifers in
the area.l Deeper, potentially highly productive aquifers, such
as the Dakota or the Madison, are important regionally but
apparently do not contain potable water in the Beulah area.
Deep bedrock aquifers include the Fox Hills and basal Hell
Creek aquifer and the upper Hell Creek and lower Cannonball-
Ludlow aquifer, with the former being deeper. Wells in the
lower aquifers are as much as 1,500 feet deep and yield up to
150 gallons per minute (gpm) while the upper aquifer wells are
about 500-800 feet deep with maximum yields of 100 gpm. The
water quality of the two aquifers is quite" similar; both
Croft, M.G. Ground-Water Resources, Mercer and Oliver
Counties, North Dakota, North Dekota Geological Survey Bulletin
56, Part III. Grand Forks, N.D.: North Dakota Geological Sur-
vey, 1974.
671
-------
•-J
to
*f-
AUDUBOM t
NATIONAL V
Jv:::r!--w;;v:iT];.: -
FIGURE 11-3: WATER PIPELINES FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE
RIFLE SCENARIO
-------
contain a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of about 1,500
milligrams per liter (mg/£). (The U.S. Geological Survey defines
1,000-3,000 mgA as slightly saline.) Both aquifers are cur-
rently tapped for domestic livestock uses, with the lower aquifer
also being used for municipal supplies.
The lower Tongue River Formation aquifer is in shallow
sandstone and is separated from the deeper Hell Creek-Cannonball-
Ludlow aquifer by a considerable thickness of relatively imper-
meable siltstone and claystone beds. The formation is only about
150 feet thick, and well yields are only about 5 gpm. The water
contains sodium bicarbonate with a TDS of 1,400-1,700 mg/£ . The
aquifer is tapped by wells for domestic and stock purposes.
Lignite bed aquifers are also used for domestic and stock
purposes. Well yields are generally less than 10 gpm, and TDS
concentration is generally over l,OOOm
-------
TABLE 11-11: RESERVOIR CHARACTERISTICS - LAKE SAKAKAWEA'
Location of Garrison Dam
Contributing drainage area
Approximate length
Maximum width
Average width
Maximum operating pool
elevation and area
Inactive storage between
1,775 and 1,673 feet above mean
sea level
Total gross storage between.
1,854 and 1,673 feet above mean
sea level
Maximum discharge
Minimum discharge0
Average discharge
Power production
plant capacity
dependable capacity
Surface fluctuation
Near Riverdale, North Dakota at river
mile 1,389.9
180,050 square miles
178 miles
14 miles
3 miles
1,775 feet above mean sea level;
129,000 acres
5 million acre-feet
24.4 million acre-feet
348,000 cubic feet per second
1,320 cubic feet per second
21,500 cubic feet per second
500 megawatts-electric
302 megawatts-electric
15 feet average
30 feet maximum in recent years
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee. The Missouri River Basin Comprehen-
sive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management, 1971.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group. Water Quality
Subgroup Report, Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1974.
c
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Missouri
Region. Final Environmental Statement: Initial Stage, Garrison Diversion
Unit. Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program. North Dakota. Billings, Mont.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1975.
674
-------
TABLE 11-12: STREAM FLOW DATA IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO AREA
en
River and
Location
Missouri
River at
Bismarck
Knife River
at Hazen
Square Butte
Creek Below
Center
Spring Creek
at Zap
West Branch
Otter Creek
near Beulah
Years of
Record
45
40
8
28
8
Drainage
Area
(sq. mi.)
186,400
2,240
146
549
26.5
Minimum
Flow
(cfs)
1,800
0
0
0
0
Maximum
Flow
(cfs)
500,000
35,300
9,700
6,130
23,700
Average
Flow
(cfs & acre-f t/yr)
21,720
15,740,000
181
131,100
14.2
10,290
43.8
31,730
4.1
2,960
cfs - cubic feet per second
-------
TABLE 11-13: WATER USES ABOVE LAKE SAKAKAWElA (1965)
Use
Irrigation
Municipal and Rural Domestic
Mineral
Thermal Electric Power
Other Industry
Livestock
Total
Water Requirement
(acre-ft/yr)
436,000
8,700
1,800
9,600
12,000
4,200
472,000
Data cover area above the confluence of the
Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers, just upstream
of Lake Sakakawea.
Another significant perennial river in the scenario area is
the Knife River/ which runs east through Beulah and Hazen to its
confluence with the Missouri River below Garrison Dam. The
Knife River is part of the Western Dakota Subbasin. Stream flow
and other characteristics of the Knife River are shown in Table
11-12. Available data on local creeks are also shown in Table
11-12. The annual water uses reported for this area in 1976 are
shown in Table 11-13.1 The Corps of Engineers has estimated that
water will be available to supply both irrigation and energy
users through the year 2020.2 However, releases to sustain
navigation may be curtailed under some conditions.
Water quality in Lake Sakakawea is relatively good. Mea-
surements have been made both in the lake and downstream of
Garrison Dam. Some of these data are reported in Table 11-14 so
that a specific water user can make an evaluation of the suita-
bility of local water quality as it pertains to a particular use.
Water quality data for the Knife River is scarce, although there
are known high silt and nutrient loads. The nutrients that
accompany the silt are related to agricultural fertilizer uses.
These nutrients increase aquatic plant growth which reduces fish
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee. The Missouri River
Basin Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: U.S.,
Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1971.
2
U.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division,
Reservoir Control Center. Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs
Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74.Omaha, Nebr.:
Corps of Engineers, 1974.
676
-------
TABLE 11-14:
WATER QUALITY DATA FOR THE BEULAH SCENARIO
(milligrams per liter)
Locatioii
Missouri Rivera
Lake Sakakaweab
Red Butte Bay
Beaver Bay
Wolf Creek .Bay
Knife River Maximum
At Hazen Minimum
Mean
Spring Creek8'* Maximum
At Zap Minimum
West Branch3'6 Maximum
Otter Creek Minimum
Square Buttea'e Maximum
Creek Below Center
Minimum
Drinking Water
Standard?
Typical Boiler1
Feed Water
Ca
.10
Kg
.03
Na
59
.24
K
4*4
.01
Cl
9
1.5f
2509
.96
HCOj .
i An
xuu
.01
so4
* •»!»
iiv
72f
250*
M03
• 16
4
5.5.
6.5
.54*
°-°°j
.26d
10*
TDS
A") ft
*r«O
345C
350°
325°
1510
204
1004
1110
108
1290
432
588
3 IS
5009
10
Hardness
loo
J.yy
216
220
220
530
81
320
100*
.01
pH-
3.1
8
8
' 7.9
S.3
7
7.9
7.5 *
6.S-8.59
8. 8- 10. 8
Flow
(cfs)
oi fiOQ
*J-* OUU
H/A
B/A
N/A
5.930
13
392
4.2
1.120
.10
10
1.2
370
Ca <* calcium
Cl - chloride
HCO3 " bicarbonate
K ** potassium
M9 = magnesium
Ka ** Sodium
NO3 » nitrates
pH = acidity/alkalinity
SO4 B sulfates
TDS - total dissolved solids
*U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. 1973 Water Resources Data for Morth Dakota. Part 2t Water Quality Records.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, Time-Weighted Average Values.
Sorthern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group. Water Quality Subgroup Report. Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.i O.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1974.
Conductivity was reported; as no units were shown, the values were not converted to TDS.
dAs nitrogen.
Miscellaneous surface-water quality sites, values for 1973 water year only^
Average values from: EBASCO Services, Inc. Environmental Impact analysis; Hilton R. Young Steam Electric Station Center Unit 2
for MinnXota Power Cooperative. Inc.. and Square Butte Electric Cooperative. Inc. New york, N.Y.: EBASCO Services, Inc., 1973.
^U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg.
17.143-47 (March 31, 1977). -
hU.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulations." 40 Fed. Reg. 59,566*86 (December 24.
1975). 'These regulations include other standards not given here.
From a variety of sources, see American Water Works Association, Inc. Water Quality and Treatment, 3rd ed. Kew York, N.Y.t
McGraw-Hill, 1971, pg. 510, 'Table 16-1. Some numbers derived from Table 16-1 assuming concentrating factor - 100. high pressure.
drum-type boiler.
-------
population. Because of these conditions, there is almost no
sport fishing in the upper Knife River Basin, although the lower
river is a good sport fishery. Water quality parameters have
been compiled for area streams from several locations and are
shown on Table 11-14.
The availability of water to all the illustrative energy
facilities is largely controlled by interstate compacts that
govern water use in areas above Lake Sakakawea.1 Inasmuch as no
provision has generally been made in these compacts to govern the
location of the withdrawal of water by the owner, allotments can
be withdrawn at downstream locations. For instance, Yellow-
stone, River water currently allotted to Wyoming but not being
used within that state could be withdrawn as far downstream as
Lake Oahe and pumped back to Wyoming. Yet assuming that
some allocated water must be passed through, there should
be sufficient water available in Lake Sakakawea to supply the
scenario energy developments.
A permit for withdrawal of water from Lake Sakakawea must
be obtained from the North Dakota State Water Commission. There
is currently a moratorium on the issuing of permits from Lake
Sakakawea that will be in effect until July 1977. This mora-
torium has been instituted to allow the legislature to restruc-
ture the water allocation program. The availability of water
will be decided by the state after allowing for currently allo-
cated water, including the rights of the Bureau of Reclamation
to water for the Garrison Diversion Unit.
11.3.3 Water Requirements and Supply
A. Energy Facilities
The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
for the Beulah scenario are shown in Table 11-15. Two sets of
data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System data
are based on secondary sources, including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket, filings and recently published
data accumulations.^ The Water Purification Associates data
are from a study on minimum water use requirements and take into
Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944)?
Yellowstone River Compact of 1950, 65 Stat. 663 (1951).
2
These ERDS, which are forthcoming as a separate publica-
tion, are based on data drawn from: University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives: A
Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1975. Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy
Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin, Tex.: Radian
Corporation, 1975.
678
-------
TABLE 11-15: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Use
Power Plant
Coal Gasification
(Lurgi) Plants
Coal Gasification
(Synthane) Plants
Coal Mining
Size
3,000 MWe
250 MMscfd each
250 MMscfd each
Requirement3
(acre/ft/yr)
ERDSk
42,000
7,450
10,100
WPAC
33,400
3,200
8,100
1,925
MWe = megawatts-electric
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day
Requirements are based on an assumed load factor of 100
percent. Although not realistic for sustained operation,
this load factor indicates the maximum water demand for
these facilities.
Chapter 3 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy Resource
Development Systems for a Technology Assessment of Western
Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
°Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants
in the Western United States, Final Report, for University
of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Wash-
ington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming.
account the moisture content of the coal being used and local
meteorological data.l
The use of water required for energy facilities is shown in
Figure 11-4. As indicated there, the greatest use for all energy
conversion technologies is for cooling. Solids disposal consumes
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. See Appendix B.
679
-------
to
40
35
30
\ 25
H-
I
0>
| 20
0
o
O
15
i r\
IU
5
n
R-42,000
—
—
—
_
—
—
wf^m
— J
.
Cooling Tower
Evaporation
w-33.389 b^ Consumed in
j
sa
i
sssfl the Process
• Solids Disposal
Consumption
*For Lur^i there is a
net gdin of 776 acre-
ft. /yr. of water in the
process.
R- 10,096
W-8, 13
t\ f ,*tO f
Power Synthane
Generation
Lurgi
FIGURE 11-4: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY
FACILITIES IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO
680
-------
TABLE 11-16: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION
Mine
Power Plant
Lurgi (2)
Synthane (2)
Total
Acres
Disturbed
Per Year
840
1,000
1,000
Maximum
Acres Under
Irrigation
4,200
5,000
5,000
Water
Requirement
(acre-ft/yr)
3,150
3,750
3,750
10,650
comparable quantities of water for all technologies, varying
primarily as a function of the ash content of the feedstock
coal.
The water requirement associated with mining includes dust
control, handling, crushing* and service as well as reclamation.
Reclamation requirements have been calculated, assuming 5 years
of irrigation at a rate of 9 inches per year, and are given in
Table 11-16. Water to meet reclamation and dust control demands
will come from mine dewatering activities whenever possible and
will be supplemented with surface water if needed.
The first Lurgi facility, the power plant, and the two
Synthane facilities will obtain their water through a pipeline
from Lake Sakakawea because it is the largest, most reliable -
local source. Water will be withdrawn from an intake system
below the minimum operating level of the lake and pumped to on-
site reservoirs. The second Lurgi facility will use water
released from Lake Sakakawea and withdrawn from its intake on
the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam. As with the
other facilities, the water will be pumped from the river to an
on-site reservoir. Alternatively, the second Lurgi facility
could use an upstream reservoir on the Knife River, such as the
proposed Bronco Reservoir,1 as a water source.
B. Municipal
As shown in Table 11-17, population increases associated
with energy development will require additional water supplies.
In the scenario area> municipal water use will total 4,645 acre-
feet per year (acre-ft/yr) by the year 2000, with intermediate
Jorthern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group
Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.
681
-------
TABLE 11-17:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION3
(acre-feet per year)
Town
Beulah
Golden Valley
Hazen
S tan ton
Zap
Center
Fort Clark
Hannover
Bismarck -Mandan
Mercer County/
Ruralb
Oliver County/
Ruralb
1980
133
6
78
34
25
53
4
15
1,344
11
20
1985
371
14
162
39
74
39
7
3
1,708
3
24
1990
119
8
106
35
13
39
6
3
1,834
16
29
1995
483
17
400
81
46
60
13
7
2,842
21
33
2000
147
15
190
85
32
81
15
8
4,032
25
38
Above 1975 base level; based on 125 gallons per capita per
day.
Based on 80 gallons per capita per day..
demands related to labor-intensive construction as high as 4,000
acre-ft/yr. Currently, water demands are being met with ground-
water at all municipalities except Bismarck and Mandan, which
use surface water from the Missouri River. Permits will be required
from the North Dakota State Water Commission to withdraw any
additional municipal water.
11.3.4 Effluents
A. Energy Facilities
The quantities of liquid wastes from the energy facilities
hypothesized for the Beulah scenario are shown in Table 11-18.
The largest effluent quantities are from flue gas desulfuri-
zation and ash disposal. Since the lignite in this area has
only 6-percent ash, disposal requires less water than for coals
with higher ash contents. The quantity of flue gas desulfuri-
zation effluent depends on the sulfur content of the coal (0.8
percent by weight on a dry basis) and the scrubber efficiency
(80-percent removal assumed).
682
-------
TABLE 11-18: RESIDUAL GENERATION FROM TECHNOLOGIES USED AT BEULAH°
Ccttdensate r
Treatment Sludge
Boiler
Derr.iheralizer
Waste
Treatment Waste
Treatment Waste
Flue Gas
Desulfurization
Bottctr. Ash
Disposal
Fly Ash Disposal
Total per plant
Total
for Scenario
Stream
Content13 .
o
5
S
i
i
i
Power 'Generation
Wet-Solida
(tpd)
_
2.4
-
241
5,314
996
3,817
10,371
10,371
Dry-Solids
(tpd)
_
1.3
-
96
2,126
764
3,054
6,041
6,041
Water In
Sol. i'ds
(gpm)
_
0.2
-
24
531
39
127
724
724
Lurgi
Wet-Solids
;tpd)
133
30
20
14
487
2,638
346
3,668
7,336
Dry-Solids
(tpd)
27
16
10
8
194
2,031
279
2,565
5,130
Water In
Solids
(gpm)
18
2
1.7
12
49
101
11
184
368
Synthane
Wet-Solids
(tpd)
117
26
30
27
189
602
2,308
3,299
6,598
Dry-Solids
(tpd)
23
13
16
13
76
462
1,848
2,451
4,902
Water In
Solids
(gpm)
16
2
2.6
2
19
23
77
142
284
CTi
00
U)
gpic = gallons per day
tpd = tons per day
aFros Water Purification Associates. Water -Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western united
States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming. Figures were adjusted to correspond to a load factor of 100 percent. See Appendix B.
s = soluble inorganic
i = insoluble inorganic
o = insoluble organic
-------
TABLE 11-19: EXPECTED INCREASES IN WASTEWATER FLOWS**
Town
Beulah
Golden Valley
Hazen
S tan ton
Zap
Center
Fort Clark
Hannover
Bismarck -Mandan
1980
0.10
0
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.04
0
0.01
1
1985
0.27
0.01
0.12
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.01
0
1.22
1990
0.09
0.01
0.08
0.03
0.01
0.03
0
0
1.31
1995
0.34
0.01
0.29
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.01
2.03
2000
0.11
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.02
0.06
0.01
0.01
2.88
aAbove 1975 base level, based on 100 gallons per capita
per day.
All pollutant streams from the facilities will be discharged
into clay lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Runoff pre-
vention systems will be installed in all areas that have a pol-
lutant potential. Runoff will be directed to either a holding
pond or a water treatment facility.
B. Municipalities
Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain-fields), and
urban populations will require waste treatment facilities. The
wastewater generated by the population increases associated with
energy development will amount to 1.25 million gallons per day
(gpd) by 1980, 1.56 gpd by 1990, and 3.39 gpd by 2000 as shown
on Table 11-19. During most of that time, the Bismarck-Mandan
area will account for about 80 percent of the totals, but con-
struction demand peaks will cause some fluctuations. Beulah
will require an increase of 0.34 million gpd by 1995, more than
double its average over the 25-year period under consideration.
Similarly, Zap peaks in 1985 and Hazen in 1995. Current waste-
water treatment practices in these communities are shown in
Table 11-20.
Based on the current treatment facilities capacities, all
the communities in the scenario will require new facilities to
accommodate new population due to energy developments. In Bismarck-
Mandan, facilities will not have to be expanded immediately but will
need to be increased before 2000. New facilities must use "best prac-
ticable" waste treatment technologies to conform to 1983 standards
and must allow for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to
meet 1985 goals. Policy issues concerning municipal sewage
treatment are discussed in Section 14.3.4.
684
-------
TABLE 11-20:
WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS
OF COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY BEULAH
SCENARIO
Town
Type of Treatment
Hydraulic Loading
Beulah
Golden Valley
Hazen
Stanton
Zap
Center
Fort Clark
Hannover
Bismarck
Mandan
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 15 acres
3-cell waste stabilization
pond, 5 acres
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 18 acres
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 5.2 acres
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 2.75 acres
waste stabilization, with
new but presently
inoperable system, 6.5
acres
no system
no system
expanding to extended
aeration, secondary
clarifier, sand
filtration, chlorination
extended aeration,
filtration, chlorination
at capacity
can expand by
about 100-200
people
at capacity
at capacity
at capacity
old system—over-
loaded; new plus
old system—at
capacity
designed for
55,000
designed for
20,000
Source: From telephone conversation with North Dakota Health
Department.
11.3.5 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The only activity scheduled before 1980 is the construction
of the power plant, the first Lurgi gasification plant, and the
openings of their respective lignite surface mines. The power
plant will go on-line in 1980, but the Lurgi plant will not go
into operation until 1982.
685
-------
1. Surface Mines
The two coal mines to be opened before 1980 will have
several potential impacts on local aquifers, but inasmuch as the
mines will not be fully operational, these impacts will not be as
great as in the next decade.
The chief groundwater effect of opening the mines will be
the disruption of shallow bedrock aquifers in the Tongue River
Formation. Both sandstone aquifers and lignite aquifers will be
disturbed. Excavation of the box cut will disrupt the flow
patterns of aquifers encountered, requiring mine dewatering which
would lead to excessive drawdowns and aquifer depletion.
Although the two coal mines opened during this period will
require water for dust control, revegetation will not begin until
the next decade. Dust control requirements will be 400 acre-ft/
yr at the mine for the power plant and 240 acre-ft/yr at the mine
for the Lurgi plant. This water demand will be met by using
trapped runoff and water from mine dewatering. No additional
surface-water supplies will be required.
Runoff from the mine area will be high in suspended solids
from erosion of open banks, spoil piles, and the mine floor and
will contain higher than ambient concentrations of the trace
metals associated with the coal. The greater part of the con-
taminated runoff will remain in or enter the mine area either by
natural flow or through runoff retention structures. No con-
taminated runoff will be allowed to directly enter a natural
stream. About 83 acre-ft/yr of runoff could be trapped by each
1,000 acres of active mine or reclamation area. If there is a
large excess of water from mine dewatering and runoff, it will be
treated and used as make-up for process water at the associated
energy conversion facility.
2. Energy Conversion Facility
No significant impacts on aquifer systems are expected from
energy conversion facilities because none of the facilities will be
fully operational before 1980. If runoff is ponded during construc-
tion of the power plant or the Lurgi gasification plant, then shallow
aquifers could be contaminated by infiltration from these ponds.
Construction activities at both the power plant and the
Lurgi gasifier will remove vegetation and disturb the soil. Both of
these activities will have an effect on surface-water quality by
increasing the sediment load of local runoff. Additionally, the
equipment used during construction will require maintenance areas
and petroleum products storage facilities. Areas for the storage
of other construction-related materials, such as aggregate for a
concrete batch plant, will be required as well. All these facil-
ities have the potential for contaminating runoff, but runoff
686
-------
control methods will be instituted at each one. Runoff will be
channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation.
Because the supply of water to this pond is intermittent, evap-
oration may claim most of the water. Some of the water may be
used for dust control.
The power plant construction will cause additional envi-
ronmental effects where the water supply pipeline crosses the
Knife River; construction activities will require that parts of
the river be dammed temporarily. Increased silt loads and pos-
sible erosion of stream banks due to increased velocities at the
dam site may result.1
3. Municipal .Facilities
As shown on Table 11-17, the communities that grow as a
result of the scenario energy facilities will require consider-
able additional quantities of water. These towns (with the
exception of Bismarck and Mandan) are now taking their supplies
from groundwater sources. This analysis assumes that'the addi-
tional requirements will also be met from groundwater, which will
be withdrawn by well fields in nearby alluvial aquifers. The
productivity of the aquifers supplying each town should be suffi-
cient to meet the needs of the respective towns without signifi-
cant aquifer depletion. A possible exception is Hannover, which
may have to be provided with supplemental water from surface
sources or by a pipeline from a well or well field in the Square
Creek aquifer.
As noted in Table 11-20, all the small towns in the sce-
nario area, with the exception of Fort Clark and Hannover, pres-
sently use waste stabilization ponds for sewage treatment.
Residences in Fort Clark and Hannover use individual septic tank
and drainfield systems. Bismarck and Mandan have municipal
sewage treatment plants. Both the stabilization ponds (because
of leakage) and the septic tank systems may pose a water quality
hazard to local shallow aquifer systems in both the bedrock and
the alluvium. This hazard will be magnified by the population
increases associated with the energy development projected for
the scenario area.
The Bismarck-Mandan municipal complex is the only area that
will have an increase in population related to energy develop-
ment and that draws its municipal water supply from surface-
water sources. However, increased withdrawals by Bismarck-Mandan
Alternatively, the pipeline may be attached to the Highway
49 bridge that crosses the Knife River south of Beulah. Recon-
naissance of the area would be necessary to determine if this
alternative is viable.
687
-------
to meet the projected population needs will not have ari appreciable
effect on the area's water source, the Missouri River,
B. Impacts to 1990
During the 1980-1990 interval, three of the energy facili-
ties will begin operation. The power plant will go on-line in
1980, and the Lurgi plants will start operation in 1982 and 1987.
The associated coal mines will begin operation concurrent with
their plants.
1. Surface Mines
The three coal mines to begin operation during the 1980-
1990 decade will have several impacts on groundwater quality and
quantity. As the mines expand, larger areas of the shallow bed-
rock aquifers will be affected. Ultimately, a total of about
53,600 acres will be disturbed by surface mining for the power
plant and the two Lurgi plants. Flow patterns will be disrupted
in the aquifers, and if mine dewatering is necessary, the aqui-
fers may be depleted locally. Aquifers in the lignite beds will
be destroyed by the removal of the lignite, and aquifers in the
overburden can not be restored to pre-mining conditions by
replacement of the overburden during reclamation.
Depending on the chemical and mineralogical composition
of the overburden, mining operations may result in the
oxidation of materials that were formerly in reducing con-
ditions. Such oxidation could cause the generation of
acid waters and the release of dissolved contaminants which
would infiltrate the substrate below and adjacent to the mines.
The infiltrating contaminated water could in turn pollute local
shallow bedrock aquifers.
These groundwater depletion and contamination problems will
be manifested in local wells, springs, and seeps. Aquifer
depletion will lower water levels in wells, and some wells may
dry up or have to be deepened. Depletion may also cause flow
reductions in springs, and some springs may dry up. Groundwater
contamination from leaching of the overburden could ruin wells
and/or springs. Most of the impacts will be on bedrock aquifers,
but nearby alluvial aquifers could also be affected. These
effects would be most pronounced where alluvial aquifers are
recharged by base flow from bedrock aquifers. The streams
associated with the alluvial aquifers may also receive contami-
nated water as base flow from bedrock or alluvial aquifers.
2. Energy Conversion Facility
The power plant and the two Lurgi gasification plants may
have some impacts on local groundwater systems, but they will not
contribute to local aquifer depletion because process and cooling
688
-------
water for these facilities will be provided from surface water
sources. The runoff and effluents of the three plants will be
similar in composition.
The power plant and the first Lurgi facility will draw water
from Lake Sakakawea at a combined rate of about 49,500 acre-ft/
yr. The second Lurgi facility will draw water from the Missouri
River below Stanton at a rate of 7,450 acre-ft/yr. There will be
no significant adverse environmental impacts from these with-
drawals. Some increase in total dissolved solids will occur,
although it is difficult to project the amount or effect of this
increase.
Runoff must be controlled around all areas containing poten-
tial pollutants (including fuel tanks and coal storage piles) and
sent to holding ponds for reuse or evaporation. Runoff will be
increased during construction of the second Lurgi facility. The
environmental effects will be similar to those previously stated
for the construction of the first Lurgi facility.
The effluents from the energy conversion facilities likely
to have the greatest impact on local groundwater supplies are
those that will be ponded on the facility sites. Pond liners for
the effluent storage ponds are designed to prevent leakage during
the lifetime of the energy conversion facility, but they may leak
because of failure, inadequate design, or improper maintenance.
In the event of pond liner leakage, contaminants could enter the
substrate either by direct infiltration of contaminated liquids
or by leaching of solids or semisolids by natural precipitation.
Local groundwater contamination may or may not occur, depending
on the composition of the fluids or leachate and on the renova-
tive capacity (filtration and absorption) of the substrate. This
capacity will vary according to local geologic conditions.
The Lurgi facilities will produce solid wastes which will be
trucked to disposal sites located in mined-out areas. Decompo-
sition and leaching of these wastes could accentuate the contam-
ination problems described earlier for the mines. In addition,
there will be on-site ponds similar to those at the power plant
for toxic, non-toxic, and sanitary wastes.
3. Municipal Facilities
As a result of population growth, municipal water require-
ments will increase dramatically about the mid-1980's and then
will decrease to near the 1980 levels by the end of the decade.
The alluvial aquifers or surface-water systems that supply the
various communities should be able to meet these additional needs
without aquifer depletion. Excessive groundwater withdrawals may
occur at Beulah and Zap during the population peak, but the
losses will be made up by recharge in later years.
689
-------
C. Impacts to 2000
The two Synthane plants of the scenario will be constructed
between 1990 and 2000. Both plants will be in operation by
2000.
1. Surface Mines
The three mines opened before 1990 will continue to have
impacts during the 1990-2000 decade similar to the impacts
described for the earlier decade. However, mining impacts will
become more extensive as the mines increase in area and the two
coal mines for the Synthane plants become operational.
The loss of water to local streams due to runoff impound-
ment will be as high as 5,800 acre-ft/yr. This loss could cause
a significant change in the characteristics of the intermittent
streams. The combined effects of mine dewatering and runoff
loss could affect base flows as well as other stream charac-
teristics in the perennial streams. These base flow effects
could be significant.
2. Energy Conversion Facility
The construction activities at the Synthane plant will have
effects similar to those described previously for the construc-
tion of other energy facilities.
The energy facilities will withdraw about 67,000 acre-ft/yr
from Lake Sakakawea and about 7,450 acre-ft/yr from the Missouri
River. These withdrawals may cause some increase in downstream
pollutant concentrations because of the loss of higher quality
water for dilution. This effect is difficult to evaluate
quantitatively.
The effluents generated by the power plant and the two Lurgi
gasification plants will continue to be produced during this
decade. Additional effluents with similar impacts will be gen-
erated by the Synthane plant that will begin operating in 1995.
If solid wastes from the Synthane plant are disposed of in the
overburden material during reclamation of the mine, then the
contaminating effects of the overburden described earlier for
the mine will be accentuated.
The effluents from the Synthane plant will be handled on- :
site in a manner similar to that previously described for the
Lurgi facilities. Because of the provisions of Public Law
92-500, there will be no planned continuous or intermittent
discharge of pollutants to surface waters.
690
-------
3. Municipal Facilities
As in the previous decade, population levels in the communities
of the scenario area during the 1990-2000 decade will increase
to a high level in the mid-1990's, then decrease toward the end
of the decade. The aquifers and rivers used by all the communi-
ties except Beulah should be able to meet the increased water
needs without significant aquifer depletion. At Beulah, the
groundwater withdrawals may exceed the recharge to the Knife
River aquifer temporarily, but the losses would be made up after
the population declines.
The mid-decade population peak will again increase the
stress on the quality of water in local shallow aquifers because
of excess septic tank usage and leakage from waste stabilization
ponds. The renovative capacity of the substrate is not unlim-
ited, and continued introduction of septic tank and stabili-
zation pond effluent will probably lead eventually to aquifer
contamination.
D. Impacts after 2000
The second Synthane plant will begin operating in 2000.
Most of the impacts after 2000 will occur after the various
energy facilities shut down.
1. Coal Mine
The mines associated with the five energy conversion facil-
ities will continue to produce the same impacts described for
earlier decades as long as the plants operate. After the plants
are shut down, the total mine area will be reclaimed and mine
dewatering will cease. Although aquifer depletion will no
longer be a concern, groundwater quality impacts will continue
after the mine areas are reclaimed. However, over the long term,
the oxidation and release of contaminants in the overburden will
be completed, and the rate of release will taper off.
2. Energy Conversion Facility
The impacts on groundwater systems described for the energy
facilities in earlier decades will continue as long as the
facilities operate. The commencement of operations at the final
Synthane plant in 2000 will increase the impacts mentioned
earlier for the other Synthane plant. When all plants are
operating, there will be a total water requirement of as much as
77,000 acre-ft/yr. This withdrawal will be entirely from the
Missouri River system but should not have a significant effect
on water availability. Some downstream increase in total dis-
solved solids will be evident as a result of the withdrawals.
691
-------
After the facilities are decommissioned, the runoff control
systems will no longer be operating. The amount of runoff con-
tamination will be the result of erosion of the berms and leakage
in the pond liners from lack of maintenance.
3. Municipal Facilities
Some of the people who migrate into the area because of
energy development are likely to remain after the plants are
shut down. If so, water supply demands on the alluvial aquifers
and the Missouri River will continue. These sources should be
able to meet the needs without significant depletion.
Communities that have not built municipal sewage treatment
plants will continue to present a water quality hazard to local
aquifers through the use of septic tanks and waste stabilization
ponds. As noted earlier, this hazard is cumulative in that the
renovative capacity of the substrate will eventually be exhausted.
By the end of the decade, wastewater treatment demands in
communities with severe treatment problems should have decreased
to levels within the plant capacities of the various communities.
11.3.6 Summary of Water Impacts
The coal mines for the scenario energy facilities will prob-
ably have several impacts on both groundwater and surface water.
If the mine dewatering is necessary, local shallow bedrock aqui-
fers in the Tongue River formation may be depleted. The result
would be to lower water levels in wells or the drying up of
wells, seeps, and springs. Additionally, bedrock recharge to
alluvial aquifers and base flow to streams may be greatly
reduced or eliminated. The water requirements at the mines will
mostly be met from dewatering operations and should not place
further demands on external sources.
Returning overburden to the mines during reclamation will
also have several impacts on groundwater and surface, water
because overturning the overburden during mining operations will
have changed its aquifer characteristics and infiltration rates.
A total of about 84,400 acres will be mined and will experience
increases in infiltration rates. The resulting loss of runoff
to surface streams will amount to about 7,000 acre-ft/yr, and
the runoff will have a higher sediment and dissolved solids
content than before mining.
Overturning the overburden will also bring to the surface
materials that were formerly deeply buried. Oxidation and
release of these materials could lower the quality of surface
water and groundwater systems. Infiltrating precipitation may
leach these materials and carry them directly as recharge to
aquifers or indirectly to surface-water sources either as
692
-------
springs or as base flow to streams. The potential pollution
problem associated with the overburden will continue for several
years after plant shutdown and will diminish slowly as oxidation
and other reactions in the overburden go to completion.
During construction, the energy facilities may lower the
quality (by increases in turbidity and dissolved solids content)
of surface water because of soil disturbance. Accidental spills
of fuels and lubricants may also enter the surface water system
and infiltrate to groundwater systems.
The Missouri River is expected to be able to meet the water
supply requirements (a maximum total of about 77,000 acre-ft/yr)
of the facilities without appreciable impact on water availa-
bility or the environment.
The disposal of effluents from the energy conversion facility
will likely have greater impacts on groundwater than on surface-
water systems. The objective of zero discharge of pollutants set
forth in the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA)l will
necessitate on-site entrapment and disposal of all effluents.
The surface-water system will therefore be protected (at least
for the life of the plants), but groundwater quality may be
reduced by leakage and leaching of the disposed ponds and pits.
Disposal of urban sanitary wastes may pose several hazards
to groundwater quality, and overloaded waste stabilization ponds
may lower the quality of surface water. Two cycles of rapid
population increases followed by rapid decreases, coupled with
the requirements of the FWPCA, will tax the ability of the com-
munities to provide adequate municipal treatment. Special meas-
ures may have to be instituted, such as using the municipal
effluent as process water at one or more of the energy conversion
facilities, to prevent the municipal effluent from degrading
surface-water quality. The alternative is building expensive
treatment plants that will not be used efficiently over the long
term.
The identification and description of several water impacts
have been limited by available information. Missing data include
detailed information about process streams (needed to identify
the composition of discharges to settling ponds) and about the
rate of movement of toxic materials through pond liners (needed
to estimate the portions that might reach shallow aquifers).
More quantitative information will be sought during the remainder
of the project so that these potential impacts can be properly
evaluated.
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§
101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
693
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11.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
11.4.1 Introduction
The hypothesized developments in the Beulah scenario will
occur in three counties of west-central North Dakota: Mercer,
Oliver, and McLean. Of the five facilities, three will be in
Mercer County; Oliver and McLean Counties will contain one
facility each. Most of the anticipated social, economic, and
political impacts can be attributed either directly or indirectly
to the attendant population increases. This analysis focuses on
Mercer County because the facilities are centrally located around
Beulah and because the county has several other small towns which
will be affected by the hypothetical developments.
11.4.2 Existing Conditions
Together, the three counties cover 6,117 square miles and
had a 1974 population of 19,757 (a population density of 3.2
persons per square mile). Mercer County alone encompasses
1,042 square miles and had a 1974 population of 6,400 (about six
persons per square mile). The area is served by several state
highways and two railroads: the Burlington Northern running
east and west, and the Milwaukee, St. Paul, and Sault Ste.
Marie (Soo Line) running north and south.
Between 1950 and 1970, Mercer County's population decreased
by 29 percent. The state's population also decreased over this
period, but its 1 percent change was minor compared to the loss
in Mercer County (Table 11-21). This decline continued at a
slower pace into the early 1970' s; the county population decreased
6.5 percent (from 6,600 to 6,175) between 1967 and 1972.
TABLE 11-21:
POPULATION, MERCER COUNTY AND NORTH DAKOTA,
1950-1970
Mercer County
North Dakota
Population
1950
8,686
619,636
1960
6,805
632,446
1970
6,175
617,761
Percent
1950-60
-21.7
+ 2.1
Population Change
1960-70
-10
- 2.3
1950-70
-29
- 1
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1950 Census
of Population; 1960 Census of Population; and 1970 Census of Population.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, various dates.
694
-------
There are six population centers in Mercer County, ranging
from 100 to 1,200 people each. In addition to Beulah, incor-
porated towns in the county are: Stanton (the county seat),
Golden Valley, Hazen, Pick City, and Zap. Unlike the county
trend, population in the three largest towns (Beulah, Stanton,
and Hazen) has remained fairly stable over the past 20 years.
The major loss has been from the unincorporated rural areas.
Agriculture dominates the economy of Mercer County. In
1970, 33 percent of the laborforce was employed in agriculture,
(more than 10^ times the national average) as compared to 21
percent statewide. The rest of the laborforce was scattered
throughout industry, with no other predominating sector (Table
11-22). However, the dominance of agriculture is on the decline
in Mercer County, reflecting a statewide trend. Total cropland,
land in farms, and the number of farms have all declined from
TABLE 11-22:
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN
MERCER COUNTY, 1970
Industry Group
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Mining
Construction and manufacturing (Total)
Food and kindred products
Printing, publishing and
products
Transporation, communication
Utilities and sanitary sewers
Retail Trade
Food and dairy product stores
Restaurants
Trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Miscellaneous services
Public administration
Total Employment
Number
Employed
713
115
151
6
3
70
175
210
69
49
210
71
388
91
2,005
Percent
of
Total
33.4
5.9
7.1
0.3
0.1
3.3
8.2
10.5
3.4
2.4
9.8
3.3
18.2
4.3
100
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Census of Population; 1970; General Social and Economic
Characteristics. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1971.
695
-------
1969 to 1974 in both Mercer and Oliver Counties.1 Mining and
utilities sectors now generate more income than any other sector
except agriculture.2 Both trends largely reflect the coal
resource developments already under way in the area.
Both legislative and administrative functions in Mercer
County are exercised by the Board of County Commissioners which
is composed of three members serving 4-year terms. The Mercer
County Planning Commission, consisting of nine members, serves
under the County Board. The Commission's primary responsibili-
ties consist of planning and zoning activities in all unincor-
porated areas of the county. Decisions of the Planning Commis-
sion are subject to approval by the County Commissioners.
In 1967, the majority of local government expenditures
(60.3 percent) in the county went into education. Other major
expenditures included: highways, 19.4 percent? public welfare,
3.8 percent; and health and hospitals, 0.4 percent. The total
local expenditure for that year was $1.8 million. Law enforce-
ment in Mercer County is handled by a sheriff and five deputies.
The county is served by one hospital, located in Hazen, which
has 39 beds and two full-time doctors. The county also provides
a public health nurse who travels throughout the county.
Although Stanton is the county seat, almost all the retail
and professional services are provided by the two largest towns,
Beulah and Hazen.
Beulah is governed by a six-member city council and a mayor.
There is no full-time planner; the city engineer performs plan-
ning services for the town when necessary. However, there is a
planning commission which meets once a month, and the town has a
master plan and a zoning code. Medical services consist of a
clinic staffed by one doctor and one dentist, an eye clinic, and
an ambulance service. Law enforcement is provided by one police-
man and one county sheriff's deputy. The fire department con-
sists of a 58-man volunteer force and two fire trucks. In
addition, the city owns and operates its own water and sewage
treatment system.
Hazen is governed by a mayor and four councilmen. The new
position of city planner was created to deal with growth from
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Reports, .;Mercer County and
Oliver County, North Dakota. Washington, D.C»: Government
Printing Office, 1976.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
696
-------
energy development. It is now filled on a part-time basis by
the city manager, but there are plans to fund it on a full-time
basis starting in 1977. There is also a voluntary planning com-
mission composed of nine members who meet twice a month. Law
enforcement is provided by ohe policeman and one county sheriff's
deputy. Fire protection is provided by a volunteer fire depart-
ment. The city owns and operates its own water and sewer sys-
tems, which are presently operating at full capacity.
Both Beulah and Hazen appear to have adequate physical
capacity in their public service institutions to provide for the
needs of their current residents. Further, -both cities showed
budget surpluses in fiscal 1973.! However, the pressures created
by rapid growth could require rapid expansion of facilities and
services in these communities, and thus a sudden increase in
their public service employment. Under existing legislation, the
cities are not prepared to do this? the maximum indebtedness of
North Dakota cities cannot, by law, exceed 5 percent of their
total assessed valuations. Thus, Beulah and Hazen are authorized
debts of only $87,600 and $56,400, respectively. Given today's
costs, such sums will not allow much expansion of public services
in these communities. Further, even if a referendum should pass
by a vote of two-thirds of the local residents, this limit can
only be raised an additional 3 percent.
11.4.3 Population impacts
Most of the social, economic, and political impacts in the
Beulah scenario will result "from population increases, initially
during construction.and later during operation of the facilities.
The initial major effect of the Beulah area will be caused
by construction of the electric generating plant beginning in
1975, followed in 1977 by work on the first Lurgi gasification
plant. The construction employment results in the sharply cycli-
cal employment pattern of Table 11-23 (based on the employment
multipliers in Table 11-24). Construction work in this scenario
extends throughout the 1975-2000 time period, with the brief
exception of 1988 and 1989. The entire employment-induced popu-
lation change is assumed to occur within the existing towns and
is allocated among those in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties
This is typical of North Dakota's recent experience. The
state general fund has a surplus equal to almost a full year's
budget, and voters recently approved a reduction in sales tax
rates. See the Denver Post, November 6, 1976.
697
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TABLE 11-23:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT IN
BEULAH ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO,
1975-2000
Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Construction
520
2,560
2,630
2,870
3,050
3,600
4,830
2,690
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,660
0
0
30
190
790
2,880
4,830
2 , 660
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,600
Operation
0
0
110
630
660
1,570
2,160
2,410
2,410
2,400
2,650
3,240
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,740
4,330
4,580
4,580
4,580
4,830
5,410
5,660
Total
520
2,560
2,740
3,500
3,710
5,170
6,990
5,100
2,600
3,190
5,530
8,070
6,150
3,490
3,490
3,520
3,680
4,280
6,620
9,160
7,240
4,770
5,370
7,710
10,240
8,260
Source; Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model
San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
698
-------
TABLE 11-24:
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION MULTIPLIERS
IN THE BETJLAH SCENARIO
Year
1975-1979
1980-1984
1985-198.9
1990-2000
"Activity
Construction
Operation
Service
Service/Basic Employment Multipliers3
Operation
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.2
Construction
0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.7
Population/Employee Multipliers
2.05
2.5
2.3
These values were selected after examining several
studies concerning energy development in' North
Dakota and the Northern Great Plains, including
Leholm, A., F.L. Leistritz, and J.S. Wieland. Pro-
file of North Dakota ' s Coal Mine and Electric Power
Plant Operating Work Force. Agricultural Economics
Report No. 100. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota Sta'te
University, Department of Agricultural Economics,
1975; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.
Anticipated Effect's of Major Coal Development on
Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected
Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974; University of Denver, Re-
search Institute. The Social, Economic, and Land
Use Impacts of a Fort Union Coal Processing Complex,
Final Report,for U.S.,Energy Research and De-
velopment Administration. Springfield, Va.: .Na-
tional Technical Information Service, 1975. FE-1526;
Lu'ken, Ralph A. Economic and Social Impacts of
Coal Development Tn the 1970's for Mercer County,
North Dakota.Washington,D.C.:Old West Regional
Commission, 1974? Dalsted, Norman L. , et al. Eco-
nomic Impact of Alternative Energy Development
Patterns in North Dakota, for Northern Great-Plains
Resources Program. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State
University. Department of Agricultural Economics,
1974; Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and En-
vironmental Systems Division. Mercer County Case
Study: The Economic Impacts, Draft Report. Argonne
111.:- Argonne National Laboratory, 1976; See Summers,
Gene F., et al. Industrial Invasion of Nonmetro-
politan America. New York, N.Y.: Praeger, 1976.
pp. 54-59 for a discussion of low multiplier ef 1'acts
in rural areas.
Adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction
Worker Profile. Final Report. Washington, D.C.:
Old West Regional Commission, 1976. These multi-
pliers represent aggregates of married couples with
children, working wives, and single employees,, not
simply family sizes.
699
-------
as well as the Bismarck-Mandan area.1 The population estimates
are shown in Table 11-25 and Figures 11-5 and 11-6.
Because of construction period peaks and the location of the
plants in this scenario, Mercer County is expected to nearly
double in population by 1985, fall to around 8,, 600 in 1990, rise
to 14,000 in the mid-19901s, then level off at just over 10,000
by the end of the century. Beulah and Hazen, the largest towns
in the county, will closely reflect this trend. The early sce-
nario activity will take place in Oliver County, where the total
population will increase rapidly until 1980, then gradually
decrease, ending with a population of about 3,350 by 2000. Much
of the energy development activity in Oliver County will focus on
the town of Center, which is expected to double in population to
1,200. The population of McLean County, the site of the last
scenario gasification facility, will increase by nearly 3,000
people after 1995. This increase will be concentrated in the
town of Underwood, which will grow by nearly a factor of 5
between 1975 and 2000. Finally, the Bismarck-Mandan urban area
to the southeast should grow steadily to 75,700 (a 61-percent
increase) over the period. The largest absolute population
growth from the scenario is expected to occur in Bismarck and
Mandan.
Age-sex breakdowns of the projected population in Mercer
County allow estimates of housing and educational needs. Since
most of the Beulah scenario developments will be located in
Mercer County, the effects of the construction population booms'
on that county are of particular interest. The 1970 age-sex
distributions and data from community surveys in the West were
used to estimate age-sex distributions for new employees and
their families.2 The resulting distribution for Mercer County
shows the effects of construction activity. During heavy con-
struction periods (e.g., 1985 and 1995 in Table 11-26), the
20-34 age groups, particularly males, are predominant. However,
other age groups, also appear to vary in relation to the amount
of energy construction.
Population changes were estimated by means of the economic
base model (See Part II, Introduction) and the multipliers in
Table 11-28. The overall estimates were allocated among those
towns in the Beulah area within an hour's drive of each facility.
The allocation model assumes that larger towns and closer towns
should attract a greater proportion of new residents and bal-
ances the effects of population and commuting distance.
2
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile.
Final Report, Washington, B.C.:Old West Regional Commission
1976.
700
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TABLE 11-25:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR THE BEULAH
SCENARIO AREA, 1975-2000a
Location
Mercer County
Beulah
Gold valley
Hazen
Stan ton
zap
Rural
Total
Oliver County
Center
Ft. Clark
Hannover
Rural
Total
McLean County
Big Bend
Riverdale
Underwood
Washburn
Other
Total
Bismarck-Mandan County
Total
1975
1,350
100
1,240
520
270
2,920
6,400
620
100
100
1,380
2,200
100
700
780
800
9,120
11,500
46,900
1980
2,300
140
1,600
760
450
2,900
8,150
1;000
130
210
1,600
2,950
125
900
975
1,100
9,300
12,400
56,500
1985
4,000
200
2,400
900
800
3,950
11,250
900
150
120
1,650
2,800
140
1,000
1,OQO
1,100
9,700
13,000
59,100
1990
2,200
160
1,000
770
360
3,100
"8,600
900
140
120
1,700
2,850
140
1,000
1,050
1,100
10,100
13,300
60,000
1995
4,800
220
•4,100
1,100
600
3,150
14,000
1,050
190
150
1,750
3,150
170
950
1,200
1,350
10,300
14,000
67,200
2000
2,400
210
2,600
1,130
500
3,200
10,050
1,200
210
160
1,800
3,350
240
1,300
3,500
1,900
10,600
17,500
75,700
Natural increases of 0.8 percent through 1990 and 0.5 percent thereafter are
included. Estimated population declines in this table assume that construc-
tion workers and their families will leave the area when construction em-
ployment does not carry over from year to year.• Given the large amount of
energy construction activity which might occur in the West, this assumption
is.as reasonable as its alternatives. Totals are rounded.
-------
Total Mercer
County
Rural
Hazen
Beulah
1975
I I
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Stanton
Zap
Golden
3
w
u
w
ffi
CQ
«
O
h
CO
H O
EnO
W O
W CM
Sm
Or-
H C^
^^
3 .
D
-------
o
GJ
8 80
o
60 -
40 -
20 -
Bismark-Mandan
">*
_J
a. o
_A ilk
-------
TABLE 11-26: PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR
MERCER COUNTY, 1975-2000a
Age
Female
6 5 -Over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Male
6 5 -Over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975
.057
.061
.115
.051
.027
.020
.035
.091
.050
.507
.051
.065
.118
.054
.019
.023
.030
.083
.050
.493
1980
.032
.040
.105
.110
.042
.022
.024
.067
.044
.486
.029
.044
.116
.128
.044
.025
.021
.063
.044
.514
1985
.020
.033
.121
.130
.047
.023
.019
.055
.026
.474
.021
.037
.140
.152
.054
.023
.019
.054
.026
.526
1990
.036
.059
.180
.072
.018
.012
.031
.061
.016
.485
.038
.067
.206
.077
.011
.008
.032
.061
.016
.516
1995
.018
.035
.133
.131
.041
.019
.020
.050
.025
.472
.020
.041
.155
.153
.044
.019
.020
.050
.025
.527
2000
.024
.068
.204
.066
.015
.012
.025
.050
.017
.481
.027
.079
.235
.067
.009
.010
.025
.050
.017
.519
Source: Table 11-28 and Mountain West Research. Con-
struction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington,
D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976.
aTotals do not always sum to 1.0 because of rounding.
704
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TABLE 11-27:
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT IN MERCER COUNTY
1975-2000
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Number of
Households3-
1,9503
3,000
4,500
3,400
5,700
4,200
Number of
Elementary
School Children^
1,100^
1,400
1,500
1,300
1,750
1,250
Number of
Secondary
School Childrenc
400^
480
540
540
690
620
Includes single-person households, which are about 20
percent of the total.
Ages 6-13 plus 25-percent adjustment to improve estimates.
£i
Ages 14-16 plus 25-percent adjustment to improve estimates,
Estimated.
11.4.4 Housing and School Impacts
Housing demand in the Mercer County area will be highly
dependent on construction activity. The number of households in
the county will reach a peak of 5,700 in 1995 but will level off
to 4,200 in 2000; this compares to a 1975 level of 1,950 house-
holds (Table 11-27, Figure 11-7). The peak housing'demands will
be met largely by mobile homes, as is common in short-term
situations. These homes will be located mainly in and around
Beulah, the town most affected by the cyclical changes in popu-
lation. If housing construction in the county keeps up with the
projected needs, over 1,200 single-family and 500 multi-family
units will be built by the year 2000 (Table 11-28). Currently,
about 12 percent of the county's housing consists of mobile
705
-------
6 n
Households
Elementary
Secondary
i i
1975 1980 1985
I i i
1990 1995 2000
FIGURE
11-7: PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY, AND
SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MERCER COUNTY,
1975-2000.
-------
TABLE 11-28:
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING
NEEDS BY TYPE OF DWELLING3
Period
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990C
1990-1995
1995-2000C
Mobile
Home
420
580
-890
850
-860
Single-
Family
410
610
0
190
0
Multi-
Family
130
180
0
360
-140
Other*3
90
120
-210
300
-300
aComp!led from Table 11-31 and data adapted from
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker
Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old
West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 103.
For example, campers and recreational vehicles.
Negative values indicate dwelling removal, under
the assumption that mobile homes will be the first
to be removed during periods of population decline.
homes,! a proportion that would more than triple in such peak
construction years as 1985 and 1995.
f?
School enrollment impacts show another trend, with differ-
ences in timing between elementary and high schools (Table
11-27). The overall peak will be reached in 1995, when over
2,400 students will be enrolled (72 percent in elementary
schools). In terms of the school financial situation, the cur-
rent surplus of 30 classrooms would allow any need through 1990
to be met with current facilities (Table 11-29). A short-term
need for 15 additional classrooms in 1986 and in the 1990's
suggests that lowi-cost temporary classrooms or double sessions
could largely solve the demand problem without building any new,
permanent schools. Annual operating expenditures for schools in
Mercer County should be almost double the present $1.5 million
level during the 1990's; however, the average annual budget
during the scenario period should be less than 50 percent above
current expenditures. The Bismarck-Mandan school districts will
Mountain Plains F/ederal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
707
-------
TABLE 11-29:
SCHOOL FINANCE NEEDS FOR MERCER COUNTY AND BISMARCK-MANDAN,
1975-2000
o
00
County
Mercer
Bismarck-
Man dan
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Enrollment
Increase
Over 1975
1,500
380
540
340
940
370
12,300
2,100
2,600
2,800
4,100
5,700
Classrooms
at 21 Students
Per Room3
101d(71)
101 (89)
101 (97)
101 (87)
116
101 (89)
407d
507
531
540
600
676
New Capital
Expenditures
(in millions
of dollars)*3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.84
0.0
5.25
6.50
7.00
10.25
14.25
New Operating.
Expenditures
(in millions
of dollars) c
0.49
0.70
0.44
1.22
0.48
2.73
2.38
2.64
4.35
6.43
Numbers in parentheses are classroom needs, which are at times less than the
#101 currently available.
Assuming an average of $2,500 per pupil space. See Froomkin, Joseph, J.R.
Endriss, and R.W. Stump. Population, Enrollment and Costs of Elementary and
Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-81, Report to the President's Commission
on School-Finance. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971. Data
from that source were inflated to 1975 dollars.
cAssuming $1,300 per pupil; see Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and En-
vironmental Systems Division. Mercer county Case Study; The Economic Impacts,
Draft'Report. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1976, Appendix A.
An overall average of about $1,000 per pupil was inflated to 1975 dollars.
Actual number in 1974 from Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socio-
economic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities
in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, 1975.
-------
have to build over 200 classrooms, at a cost of over $14 million,
because those districts are already operating near their capa-
cities.
11.4.5 Land-Use Impacts
Nearly 50 percent of Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties is
currently cropland. The land occupied by energy facilities will
occupy about 140 square miles (360 square kilometers) or about
3.7 percent of the land in the three counties. Most of this
land will be used for surface coal mining on existing farms
which have already been leased to energy developers.* In fact,
the total amount of mined land at any point in the scenario
might be somewhat less as land is returned to farmers through
reclamation. Additional urban development should occupy only
about 6 square miles? few, if any, new roads will be needed,
though a number of old roads may be upgraded.
11.4.6 Economic and Fiscal Impacts
A. Economic
The economy of the Beulah area is still predominantly agri-
cultural, particularly Oliver County where 58.8 percent of 1972
personal income was derived from agriculture. The 1972 levels
for McLean and Mercer Counties were 42.0 percent and 27.2 per-
cent, respectively.; In that year, the mining, construction, and
utility industries were already important to Mercer County,
providing 38 percent of personal income for its inhabitants.2
As energy developments increase in the area, additional lands
will be taken out of agricultural production, but employment
opportunities in energy-related sectors will expand. Conse-
quently, . the Mercer County economy should become even more
energy dependent, and the other counties will also see a per-
centage decline in their reliance on agriculture.
Largely because of the change in industry mix areawide, the
income distribution will rise to reflect the higher paying
Johnson, Jerome E., Robert E. Beck, and Cameron D.
Si11 er s. The North Dakota Farmer/Rancher Looks at Severed
Mineral Rights, Agricultural Economics Miscellaneous Report No.
18. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Department
of Agricultural Economics, 1975.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
"Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
709
-------
TABLE 11-30:
PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR MERCER
COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
Income
Less than $4,000
4,000- 5,999
6,000- 7,999
8,000- 9,999
10,000-11,999
12,000-14,999
15,000-24,999
25,000-over
Median Household
1975a
.188
.122
.114
.087
.084
.110
.234
.061
9,700
1980
.105
.071
.065
.072
.089
.117
.381
.100
14,500
1985
.074
.053
.045
.063
.092
.119
.434
.119
16,200
1990
.097
.067
.061
.075
.094
.140
.389
.094
14,300
1995
.066
.049
.042
.066
.095
.130
.439
.112
16,200
2000
.082
.058
.052
.075
.097
.136
.407
.093
15,000
Source: Tables 11-24, 11-25, and 11-26 and Mountain West Research.
Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old
West Regional Commission, 1976.
^f.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Household Income
in 1969 for States. SMSA's Cities and Counties: 1970. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973.
employment opportunities for both local residents and
newcomers.1 For example, in Mercer County the highest incomes
will occur during the 1986 and 1995 construction booms, when non-
locals will be a large part of the laborforce (Table 11-30). A
projected overall rise of over 50 percent in median income by
2000 includes the expansion of the local economy and employment
of local people as well as immigrants to the area.
The increases in the service sector will be concentrated in
local retailing activities, particularly in Beulah. Beulah,
Hazen, Underwood, and Washburn currently serve as local trade
centers, whereas Mandan and Bismarck are the regional centers for
wholesale and retail activity.2 The primary change expected from
energy development is a growing predominance of Beulah in the
Mercer-Oliver-McLean County area. Because of the attraction of
In recent years, high agricultural prices have resulted in
high farm incomes, often exceeding the projected energy opera- "
tion salaries. Over the long term, however, energy occupations
will be higher paying.
2
Owens, Wayne W., and Elmer C. Vangsness. Trade Areas in
North Dakota, Extension Bulletin No. 20. Fargo, N.D.:North
Dakota State University, Cooperative Extension Service, 1973.
710
-------
Bismarck and Mandan, no major secondary industries are expected
to locate near Beulah.
Mercer County communities must provide public services for
the increased population. Beulah and Hazen, in particular, will
require extensive additions to their water and sewage treatment
facilities through 1985 (Table 11-31).! Facilities capable of
meeting the 1985 demands should be adequate through 2000, except
for the 1995 construction boom. The Bismarck-Mandan area also
will have an early capital need (before 1980) for over $22 mil-
lion, which will become somewhat more gradual for the rest of
the period. Other capital needs, especially for health care
facilities, will demand considerable expenditures, as indicated
in Table 11-31.
In terms of operating expenditures, Beulah's municipal bud-
get should triple to nearly $600,000 during the peak construction
years. Hazen will be affected much the same as Beulah in abso-
lute terms, which means a much greater proportional growth
(Table 11-32). Since energy developments will be located in
rural areas and the associated population will settle in the
towns, some revenues will not add directly to the tax base of
impacted towns.
The temporary removal of land from agriculture, the avail-
ability of well-paying jobs, and the expansion of towns in the
Beulah area will combine to change the region into a more
diverse1economy. The early boom will cause planning and budge-
tary difficulties for the towns nearby, although revenues should
be sufficient for needs.2 Most long-term benefits will accrue
to the Bismarck-Mandan area, where wholesale and retail activity
will expand to serve the increased population.
B. Fiscal
North Dakota has recently enacted significant changes in the
collection and disbursement of taxes on energy facilities. The
Actually both towns have some unused capacity, so that
early needs will be somewhat less. See Mountain Plains Federal
Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource
Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assis-
tance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal
Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, 1975.
2
Leistritz, F.L., A.G. Leholm, and T.A. Hertsgaard. "Public
Sector Implications of a Coal Gasification Plant in Western North
Dakota," in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal
Field Symposium, Vol. 4: Social Impacts Section. Billings,
Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 429-41.
711
-------
TABLE 11-31:
PROJECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE REQUIRED FOR PUBLIC SERVICES
IN SELECTED NORTH DAKOTA COMMUNITIES, 1975-2000
(in thousands of 1975 dollars)
Public Services
Beulah
Water and Sewage
Law Enforcement
Other
Hazen
Water and Sewage
Law Enforcement
Other
B i sma r ck-Man dan
Water and Sewage
Law Enforcement
Other
1975-1980
1,670
17
544
986
10
321
16,900
170
5,500
1980-1985
2,990
30
974
1,056
11
344
4,580
46
1,490
1985-1990
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,584
16
516
1990-1995
1,408
14
458
2,992
30
974
12,670
128
4,126
1995-2000
0
0
0
0
0
0
14,960
150
4,870
to
Source: Water and sewage plant requirements amount to $1,760,000 for each addi-
tional 1,000 population; $17,730 is required for law enforcement capital costs;
and $573,000 goes for other physical plant needs, broken down as follows: parks
and recreation (33 percent); hospital (46 percent)r libraries (5 percent); fire
protection (5 percent); administration (3 percent); and public works (8 percent).
Streets and roads not included as municipal capital costs. See THK Associates,
Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry:
Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974,
p. 30. All data from that source are inflated to 1975 dollars. See also
Lindauer, R.L. Solutions to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns Caused by Large
Energy Developments. Denver, Colo.: Exxon Co., USA, 1975, pp. 43-44.
-------
TABLE 11-32:
NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF MUNICIPAL
GOVERNMENTS IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES, 1980-2000a
Year
1980
1,985
1990
1995
2000
Current
(1974)
Budget0
Beulah
114,000
318,000
102,000
414,000
126,000
143,850
Hazen
67,000
139,000
91,000
343,000
163,000
10,950
Bismarck-Mandan
1,152,000
1,464,000
1,572,000
2,436,000
3,456,000
12,417,206
Based on a figure of $120 per capita, broken down
as follows: highways (25 percent); health and
hospitals (14 percent); police (7 percent); fire
protection (12 percent); parks and recreation
(6 percent); libraries (4 percent); administration
(10 percent); sanitation and sewage (10 percent);
and other (12 percent). See THK Associates, Inc.,
Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related
to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development
and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo-: THK Associates,
1974.
v\
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socio-
economic Impacts of Natural Resource Development
Committee. Socioeconomic impacts and Federal
Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communi-
ties in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.:
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
new severance tax applies to the mining of coal, while the new
privilege tax applies to the conversion of coal to other energy
forms. (Thus, operators will have some incentive to "strip and
ship" and avoid the privilege tax, rather than process or use
the coal at the mine site.)
The Beulah scenario envisions an annual production of 60.3
million tons of coal by the end of the century, a 3,000 megawatt -
electric (MWe) power plant (full production by 1980), and four
assorted gasification plants to come on-line between 1982 and
2000. Applying current tax rates to the projected incremental
increases, revenues likely to arise from these energy develop-
ments are:
713
-------
1. Coal Mining. The severance tax is $0.50 per ton.
The authorizing legislation makes explicit provi-
sion for keeping up with inflation; thus, the
$0.50 figure can be used throughout, in terms of
1975 currency. With the production levels of this
scenario, the severance tax yields the following
revenues:2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$12.3 $17.8 $20.5 $25.3 $30.1 (millions)
Electrical Generation. The tax rate is one-fourth
mill per kilowatt-hour. For a 3,000-MWe plant at
70-percent load factor, the tax would amount to
$4.6 million per year. The assumptions are that
one-fourth of this rate will be achieved in 1977-
1978, one-half in 1979, and the full rate there-
after.
Gasification. Conversion facilities pay either
2.5 percent of gross receipts or $0.10 per thou-
sand cubic feet, whichever is greater. Taking
the $0.10 rate, each gasification facility will
generate revenues of $8.2 million per year.
Property Taxes. Although the privilege tax stands
in lieu of ad valorem taxes on conversion facili-
ties, coal mines are still subject to property
taxes. In North Dakota, the average current
assessment ratio is 17 percent, the legal taxable
value ratio is 50 percent, and the average mill
levy is 174 (17.4 percent).3 All these factors
are effectively multiplied together to yield a
true tax rate of 1.48 percent of market value.
During the scenario time frame, five surface mines
will be inaugurated at a total development cost of
$493 million. Applying the 1.48-percent rate to
these facilities, property tax revenues will grow
as follows:
Bronder, Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining; Review with
Recommendations. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional
Energy Policy Office, 1976; Stenehjem, Erik. Intra-Laboratory
Memo. Argonne National Laboratory, February 9, 1976.
2
Distribution will be considered after all revenues are
listed
3
Stenhjem, Erik. Intra-Laboratory Memo.
714
-------
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$3.03 $4.38 $4.99 $6.14 $7.30 (millions)
5. Distribution. The new tax laws take cognizance of
those jurisdictional problems occurring in other
energy-rich areas. In most of the other scenarios,
the county in which facilities are located has
reaped the most significant portion of the revenues,
while other jurisdictions have had to provide extra
services without the benefit of new taxes. North
Dakota has, instead, largely supplanted the property
tax with new formulas designed to spread revenues
over a variety of governmental units.
The severance tax is distributed into the following
shares:
a. 35 percent to the Coal Development Impact Office
(see Section 11.4.8).
b. 30 percent to the state general fund.
c. 5 percent to the county of origin.
d. 30 percent to the state trust fund.
After legislative appropriation, the impact development
office has wide latitude in disbursing these funds to any local
units impacted by coal development. The trust fund, adminis-
tered by the board of university and school lands, is to be held
in perpetuity. However, income from this fund can be paid to
the state general fund. The Beulah scenario should result in an
accumulation of $133 million by the end of the century. An
income of 5 percent, then, would make another $6.6 million
available to the state beyond its 30-percent share. i
The coal conversion tax is distributed as follows:
1. 90 percent to the state general fund.
2. 4.5 percent to the schools in originating
county.
3. 4.0 percent to the county general fund.
4. 1.5 percent to the towns in the originating
county.
School and town allocations must be prorated on the basis of
attendance and population, respectively.
In recent years, Mercer County has been allocating 51 per-
cent of tax revenues to the general fund, 48 percent to schools,
715
-------
TABLE 11-33:
ALLOCATION OF TAXES LEVIED DIRECTLY ON
ENERGY FACILITIES, MERCER COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Jurisdiction
State General Funda
Impact Development Office
County General Fund
School Districts
Towns
Total
1980
8.1
4.3
2.3
1.6
0.1
16.4
1985
18.2
6.2
3.6
2.7
0.2
30.9
1990
28.1
7.2
4.3
3.3
0.3
43.2
1995
38,6
8.9
5.6
4.2
0.4
57.7
2000
49.4
10.5
.7
. 2
0.6
72.4
alncluding medical fund and income from trust fund (at 5 per-
cent) .
and 1 percent to a state medical fund.'
continue.
This is assumed to
These various taxes will be applied to the full complement
of energy facilities (five mines, an electric station, and four
gasification plants), and the revenues will be distributed by
formula. The net result, by jurisdiction, is listed in Table
11-33.
These revenues appear adequate to yield an overall net
surplus. However, the state government will; capture most of
this new revenue and will also benefit from income and sales
taxes (not calculated here). In addition, the towns are only
guaranteed $560,000 per year by the end of the century; their
solvency depends on allocations from the Coal Development Impact
Office (which operates within the office of the governor).2
That source can cover all municipal fiscal impacts if allocated
with that goal in mind. Local property taxes might even be
reduced with no real decline in the ability to provide govern-
ment services in the long term.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation
and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects
of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Reve-
nues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, 1974.
2
They may also benefit from commercial and residential pro-
perty taxes and utility fees not calculated here.
716
-------
11.4.7 Social and Cultural Impacts
The removal of land from agricultural production for strip
mining will be difficult for some farmers, but the compensation
from the mining activity, as well as the jobs made available,
will be welcomed by many. The steady out-migration from the
Beulah area in recent years would be turned around, an event that
would also be favored by most residents.-'- Judging from recent
experiences, a large part of the laborforce for energy develop-
ment will be made up of local people.2 Many other workers are
likely to be those who have left North Dakota in the past and
would like to return to the area. During construction, however,
only up to 25-30 percent of the needed workers are likely to be
North Dakotans, and at least one-third of all employees will be
from outside the Northern Great Plains. Non-local employment of
such skilled workers as pipefitters and electricians is even more
likely, up to levels of 70 percent and higher.3
Major uncertainty exists concerning the extent to which the
local housing construction industries will be able to supply
single-family and multi-family homes. A shortage of homes and
subsequent reliance on mobile homes would be unpleasant to many
families arriving in the Beulah area. Medical care will also be
a problem for the scenario area, where only four doctors are
available between Mandan and Dickinson (70 miles southwest of
Beulah), two of whom are affiliated with a 39-bed hospital at
Hazen.4 Government policy is generally unable to induce doctors
to settle in small communities when there are ample opportunities
Bickel, D., and C. Markell. "Problems and Solutions
Related to Measuring Regional Attitudes Toward Coal Development
and Life Styles in the Eastern Williston Basin," in Clark, W.F.,
ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 4:
Social Impacts Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana
College, 1975, pp. 421-28.
2
Leholm, A., F.L. Leistritz, and J.S. Wieland. Profile of
North Dakota's Coal Mine and Electric Power Plant Operating Work
Force, Agricultural Economics Report No. 100. Fargo, N.D.:
North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural
Economics, 1975.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile,
Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,
1976, pp. 14-19.
4
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
717
-------
in more attractive places,! although loan forgiveness programs
have had some success.2 For example, Underwood, Stanton, and
Center currently have no doctors, and projected population
growth will create the need for physicians in these towns. The
Bismarck-Mandan area currently has 91 doctors but could need as
many as 50 more by 2000. The urban area clearly will have much
less difficulty attracting physicians than the rural towns.
11.4.8 Political and Governmental Impacts
The population increases expected in the Beulah scenario
will create a general need for more local government resources.
None of the towns in the area has a full-time mayor or city
manager,3 but the planning needs during the energy boom may pro-
vide sufficient impetus to change that. Zoning and subdivision
regulations, building codes, and mobile home park design stan-
dards already exist to guide local expansion and permanent con-
struction in municipalities.
A major uncertainty in the scenario area is the extent to
which the local housing construction industry will be able to
cope with increasing demand for single-family and multi-family
homes. At present, North Dakota does not have an administrative
organization at the state level to assist in the establishment
and financing of necessary housing in rural areas; the state
also does not have a housing financing agency or corporation
whose specific purpose is to assist in securing mortgage money
for traditional lending institutions. A program designed to
administer bonds and related fiscal mechanisms could be made
operational through the Bank of North Dakota, but the statutory
authority usually granted to state housing finance corporations
is lacking. Consequently, growth communities are unable to use
Lankford, Phillip L. "Physician Location Factors and
Public Policy." Economic Geography, Vol. 50 (July 1974), pp
244-55.
2
Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural
Access to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.:
Rand Corporation, 1976.
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
718
-------
many national and federal financial sources for housing that are
available to other states.1
Besides problems of housing, county and local governments
will be hard-pressed to provide the range of services that tradi-
tionally falls within the scope of their responsibilities.
Mitigation of negative impacts in facilities and services cate-
gories will depend largely on the availability of front-end
capital and the ability of government to plan for such impacts.
As noted in the fiscal analysis, existing debt ceilings in Beulah
and Hazen are not adequate if these localities are to cope with
projected demands. Consequently, the fiscal solvency of these
two communities, as well as others in the scenario area, depends
largely on the distribution of funds from the recently created
Coal Development Impact Office. The Office administers the
revenues collected from the state severance tax on coal. By
statute, the Coal Development Impact Office has the authority to
formulate a plan to provide financial aid to local governments
in coal development areas and to make grants to counties, cities,
school districts, and other taxing districts. Decisions regarding
the amount of an impact grant awarded to an eligible political
subdivision must consider the amount of revenues which the local
governments will gain from other tax sources.2 clearly, the
office will play an important role in facilitating responses to
service demands within the state's energy-impacted communities
because it has responsibility for determining not only which
community-will receive aid but also how much assistance each will
receive. As presently organized, the program leaves local
administrators and officials in a state of uncertainty as to
whether they should prepare proposals and whether they will
indeed receive funds for projects they propose. Also uncertain
is the Office's budget, at least in the long-term.3
As well as affecting the governmental institutions and pro-
cesses in the scenario area, energy development can be expected
to affect the political activity and attitudes of the residents.
Although practically no information exists concerning the effects
on local government of population influxes associated specif-
ically with energy development, conflicts between newcomers and
area natives may produce noticeable effects on a community.
Rapp, Donald A. Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended: A
Comparative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the
Governors. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy
Policy Office, 1976.
2
North Dakota Century Code § § 57-62-04 (Cumulative Supp.
1975).
The Coal Development Impact Program is scheduled to last
until June 30, 1977 unless renewed by the state legislature.
719
-------
Energy development workers are a potential political force
because their socioeconomic characteristics are generally associ-
ated with higher than average involvement in politics.1 Also,
they generally have urban viewpoints that conflict with the rural
viewpoints of the local government personnel. (In this scenario
area, as in most of the West, the present county governments are
controlled by agricultural interests.) If long-time residents
are willing to compromise with new interests (e.g., by channeling
the increased revenues toward support of increased local services
and amenities), then conflicts between the two groups may be
minimized.
11.4.9 Summary of Social, Economic, and Political Impacts
Energy development in the Beulah area, especially strip
mining and coal gasification, will cause population shifts over
a three-county area focusing on Beulah and greater expansion in
the Bismarck area. The greater population influxes will accom-
pany facilities construction in 1985 and 1995-2000. An overall
increase of 40,000 people in the area is expected by 2000,
nearly 30,000 of which will probably live in the Bismarck-Mandan
area. Temporary housing, particularly mobile homes, will have to
provide shelter for construction boom periods. Mobile homes
could become more permanent fixtures if the local homebuilding
industry cannot provide the single-family and multi-family units
that could be demanded by the year 2000.
School enrollment in Mercer County will be greatest in 1995
but will remain at least 50 percent above 1975 levels through the
rest of the century. This indicates an average annual budget
increase for schools in the county of about $2 million over cur-
rent levels. New classroom needs will be small in comparison
with other scenarios studies; the Bismarck-Mandan urban area will
receive the greatest long-term impact, requiring 270 classrooms
and $14 million in capital expenditures.
Agriculture's dominant position in the economy of the Beulah
area will be replaced by coal-related sectors. New job oppor-
tunities will allow many local people and former North Dakotans
to take energy development positions. As a result, median income
in the area will rise about 50 percent over the 1975 level,
although short-term peaks will occur during construction periods.
In wholesale and retail services, Bismarck-Mandan will see
increases in activity, while Beulah and Hazen may expand as local
retail centers. Combined with increases in population, these
For a discussion of the characteristics that are usually
associated with a high level of involvement in political affairs,
see Flanigan, William H. Political Behavior of the American
Electorate, 2nd ed. Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, 1972.
720
-------
economic changes may result in new political alignments and
leadership.
Municipal services and related expenditures must increase
substantially to provide the necessary services, which will be
concentrated exclusively in the towns. Medical care is a partic-
ular problem area, especially since it is difficult to attract
doctors to non-metropolitan locations. For example, the need
for the doctors by 2000 in the Beulah area will be difficult to
meet under current trends. Planning for and managing energy
development-related impacts may require full-time professional
personnel in local governments, rather than the current part-
time nonprofessionals.
11.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
11.5.1 Introduction
The area evaluated in the Beulah scenario extends southward to
the Heart River, eastward past the Missouri River, northward 10
miles beyond Lake Sakakawea (Garrison Reservoir), and westward
to the Badlands of the Little Missouri. Most of the land is
gently rolling prairie, crossed by a few streams. The climate
is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in temperature.
Climate (especially winter weather), topography, and soil types
largely determine the nature of the native biota and its pro-
ductivity. Agriculture has markedly altered the natural grass-
land ecosystem, reducing both the diversity and abundance of
wildlife.
11.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions
Two major native biological communities are found in the
area, each with characteristic animal and plant species indi-
cated in Table 11-34. The more extensive is the mixed mid- and
short-grass prairie that forms a nearly complete ground cover in
upland areas.1 More than half of this area is under cultivation,
principally for wheat or forage crops, and the remainder is
grazed. Antelope are important game species in the area.
Black-footed ferrets are thought to be present but have not been
confirmed. Both small birds and larger birds of prey are
Characteristic grassland herbs such as lupine, goldenrod
species, and blazing-star, as well as silver sage, rabbitbrush,
and other shrubs, lend diversity to the vegetation but do not
contribute significantly to overall productivity or cover.
721
-------
TABLE 11-34:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAJOR
BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES
Community
Characteristic Plants
Characteristic
Animals
Grassland-
cropland
mosaic
Needle-and-thread grass
Western wheatgrass
Blue grama
Little bluestem
Silver sage
Blazing-star
Pronghorn antelope
Jackrabbit species
Ground squirrel
species
Badger
Meadowlark
Golden eagle
Marsh hawk
Short-horned
lizard
Riparian
Woodlands
Cottonwood
Green ash
American elm
Burr oak
Willow species
Buffaloberry
Whitetail deer
Porcupine
Tree squirrel
Skunk
Mink
Flycatchers
Leopard frog
Garter snake
numerous.! The peregrine falcon formerly bred on buttes and
escarpments in the prairie habitat type but is now thought to be
extinct as a breeding bird in North Dakota. Thousands of water-
fowl nest and stop during migration on the many small lakes and
marshes (an important duck production area).
The second major community is a variable woodland with its
major development along the Missouri River Floodplain and
Bird faunas include a number of typical prairie species,
including Western meadowlark, horned lark and lark bunting,
golden eagle, Swainsoh's hawk, marsh hawk, red-tailed hawk,
kestrel, merlin, prairie falcon, and burrowing owl. Upland game
birds include sharptail grouse and Hungarian partridge, the
ringnecked phesant is particularly characteristic of agricultural
•^ I/* j*^. «•» r*
areas.
722
-------
tributaries. 1 The complex physical structure of these woodland
areas, which provide a wide variety of nesting or denning sites and
food sources, promotes a diversity of animal life, including a wide
variety of birds. 2 Typical mammals of woodland habitats include por-
cupine, shrews, and whitefootedmice. Many predators and omnivores,
including the red fox, mink, weasel, striped skunk, and raccoon, pre-
fer the wooded floodplain or ravine habitats where there is both cover
and a variety of prey. Game animals include wild turkey, cottontail
rabbit, tree squirrels, and white-tailed deer, which also range into
the praires adjacent to the major stream courses. To the west, along
the course of the Little Missouri River, lies an area of eroded badland
topography. Although beyond the immediate scenario area, these bad-
lands may potentially have high recreational use.3
Aquatic communities in the scenario area vary from small lakes
in the glaciated prairie to the large impoundments on the Missouri
River and its tributaries. Fisheries are principally of the warm-
water type, except within and below reservoirs, where both warm-water
and cold-water species occur. The Missouri River between Lakes Oahe
and Sakakawea is considered to be one of the outstanding sport
fisheries of the Great Plains.
The biota described above is subject to several man-made
stresses which may intensify throughout the study period. Chief
among these influences is the expansion of cultivated land since
the early 1960's. Substantial reductions have occurred in the
floodplain forest of the Missouri between Lake Sakakawea and
Lake Oahe. Draining wetlands and eliminating fencerow vegetation
has reduced cover for small animals and waterfowl. Agriculture
also contributes sediment, pesticides, and nutrients from ferti-
lizers, through runoff, and most impoundments in the western part
The bottomland forest consists of climax stands of green
ash, American elm, box elder, and burr oak, with successional
stands dominated by willow and cottonwood.
2
Birds include large numbers of insect eaters such as the
vireos, wrens, and flycatchers. The bald eagle once nested
along the Missouri River, and an active nest was reported in
1975 for McLean County, within the study area, although it sub-
sequently failed.
Despite the harshness of the environment, wildlife is
diverse within the badlands. Species for which these areas
constitute especially high-quality habitat include mule deer,
cottontail rabbit, and bighorn sheep (introduced in the 1950's
and now present in huntable numbers). Many hawk and falcon
species find good nesting habitat in the rugged terrain, as does
the golden eagle. Prairie dog distribution follows the grass-
land portions of the badlands, and a black-footed ferret was
sighted near Medora in 1973.
723
-------
of the state (except main stem reservoirs) are now heavily
contaminated with nutrients (eutrophic).1 Damming the Missouri
River has reduced flooding and meandering. This change has
apparently reduced productivity in the floodplain forest and
promotes the replacement of successional cottonwood and willow
stands by hardwoods.2
11.5.3 Major Factors Producing Impacts
In the first 5 years of the scenario, local ecological
impacts will arise principally from the loss of biological com-
munities from changed land-use, disturbance from construction of
the power plant, and the influx of construction workers. In the
second decade, however, the influence of substantial population
increases will begin with two separate construction employment
peaks occurring in 1981 and 1986. As discussed in Section 11.3,
sewage discharges into Knife River and Spring Creek will probably
follow the pattern of population growth to a degree. Population
and construction activities will peak again between 1990 and
2000. Land withdrawal subject to reclamation during the study
period is indicated in Table 11-35. During 1975-2000, additional
land in the area will probably be put under cultivation.
TABLE 11-35:
HABITAT LOSS:
(acres)
BEULAH SCENARIO
Habitat
Grassland/
Cropland
Valley
Shrub lands
and Forests
Total
1975-
1980
5,190
160
5,350
1980-
1990
1,590
100
1,690
1990-
2000
1,760
30
1,790
Post-
2000a
82,320
2,080
84,400
Cumulative
90,860
2,370
93,230
Includes all mined lands for facilities constructed before 2000,
Henegar, D.L. "Fisheries Division, Western District and
Statewide Research Report." North Dakota Outdoors, Vol. 38
(No. 7, 1976), pp. 18-20. j
2
Johnson, W.C., R.L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer. "Forest
Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River
Floodplain in North Dakota." Ecological Monographs. Vol. 46
(Winter 1976), pp. 59-84.
724
-------
11.5.4 Impacts
A. Impacts to 1980
The construction of the power plant and its associated water
supply and transmission lines will remove a maximum of 5,190
acres of grassland/cropland habitat and 160 acres of woody vege-
tation (Table 11-35). The population of Mercer and Oliver
Counties will grow about 35 percent, primarily in Beulah and the
small towns nearby.
Based on present distributions of grazing and cropland, the
5,350 acres removed from agricultural production will consist of
1,750 acres now being grazed and 3,600 acres are now being culti-
vated. The land removed from grazing presently produces forage
roughly equivalent to the amount consumed in a year by 50 cows
with calves or 250 sheep.1 By comparison, Mercer County had an
inventory of 53,125 cattle and calves, and 2,192 sheep and lambs
in 1974.2
The impact of lost cropland on yield will vary with weather
conditions and with potential improvements in cultivation prac-
tices or plant varieties.3 Using the current figure of 25
bushels per acre, the loss of 3,600 acres of cropland would
reduce yield by a maximum of 90,000 bushels, assuming all crop-
land was in wheat. By contrast, 1,361,547 bushels of wheat were
harvested in Mercer County in 1974.4
Grazing value of land is usually estimated in terms of
acres per Animal Unit Month (AUM) . An AUM is defined as the
amount of forage required to support one cow with calf, or five
sheep, for a month. AUM's relate only to production of forage
used by sheep and cattle; differences in food habits make the
unit inappropriate for wildlife. Assuming an average of 3 acres
per AUM, the amount of potential forage production lost by 1980
is 580 AUM's.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Mercer County, North
Dakota. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976.
It has been suggested that North Dakota wheat yields could
rise from 25 to 112 bushels per acre through such improvements.
Stewart, Robert E., Jr., Alan Golbert, and Jerome Johnson, eds.
Conference on the Future of Agriculture in Southwestern North
Dakota, Held at Dickenson State College, Dickenson, N.D., May
1973, Little Missouri Grassland Study, Interim Report No. 3.
Fargo, N.D.: Little Missouri Grassland Study, 1973.
4
Bureau of Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Mercer
County, North Dakota.
725
-------
The relatively small amount of habitat removed directly in
this part of the scenario time frame is expected to have only
locally adverse impacts on wildlife, mostly small species. A
possible exception is the pronghorn antelope. Beulah lies in the
center of an area of high-quality habitat, and the disturbance
resulting from the construction of the power plant may cause
some animals to avoid the area.
The presence of large construction forces has been corre-
lated with increases in illegal big game hunting. However, in
the Beulah area, almost all land is owned privately, and most
landowners will probably post their lands as the first construc-
tion forces move into the area. While a certain amount of
trespassing will probably occur, poaching is not expected to
reduce the reproductive capacity of game populations. In this
respect, the Beulah scenario differs from other scenarios where
large amounts of unpatrolled public lands exist.
Construction populations will also increase the demand for
legal hunting and fishing. While upland game (sharptail grouse,
pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and cottontail) populations will
probably be able to withstand this, increased use of the publicly
owned game management areas may call for additional controls.
The supply of deer, antelope, and turkey may not be sufficient to
meet potential hunting demand.
Fisheries in the area are maintained by stocking, and the
hatcheries presently supplying this area of North Dakota have
slack capacity. Thus, existing fisheries are probably adequate
to supply the increased demand of the 1975-1980 period.
If a reservoir of 11,000 acre-ft capacity is constructed on
the Knife River to supply the Lurgi plant, the area's fishery
potential will be changed. Situated upstream of the industrial
sites, the reservoir would not be subject to siltation problems
resulting from construction. The reservoir would trap sediment
from the upper portion of the Knife River drainage which, in ,
conjunction with controlled releases downstream, could help
alleviate sedimentation problems in the lower Knife caused by
either industry or agriculture. The lake itself would probably
support a warm-water sport fishery. The river's present popula-
tions of sauger, walleye, pike, and channel cat would benefit
from stabilization of downstream flows.
Population growth in the Beulah area may result in
discharges of municipal sewage effluent, at least tempo-
rarily into the Knife River. Such discharges typically
have large concentrations of dissolved oxygen. Depending on the
quantities discharged and the base flow in the stream, these
pollutants could cause serious problems for several miles down-
stream. Nuisance blooms of algae and lowered dissolved oxygen
levels could result. If all of the towns affected by population
726
-------
booms were to discharge into the Knife or its tributary/ Spring
Creek, pollutants might have a localized impact on the Missouri
River.
B. Impacts to 1990
Construction activities in the second scenario decade will
bring the total acreage of grassland/cropland habitat lost to
7,040, along with 260 acres of shrublands or valley forests.
Commencement of mining at the power plant and the first Lurgi
plant will disturb additional amounts of grassland and cropland,
depending on the rate of mining. Human population size will
fluctuate markedly during this period, exhibiting two distinct
peaks: one arpund 1981 and one around 1986. Also within this
time frame, the urban area of Bismarck-Mandan will grow by
roughly 25 percent.
The additional land removed from grazing and crop production
during this decade, using the same assumptions in Section A
above, would otherwise have produced the yearly forage
requirements of roughly 16 cows with calves or 80 sheep, and an
average yearly yield of 28,170 bushels of wheat, based on 1973
yield averages.
Habitat fragmentation due to urban and industrial growth
around Beulah will probably begin by the end of the second
scenario decade, affecting, for example, more than half of the
high-quality antelope habitat around Beulah. The number of
antelope using this area will decline, and the regional popula-
tions will"reflect the loss of this key area. Deer using this
same area will probably also show local declines because the
Knife River Valley and Spring Creek are key habitats, providing
food and protection from severe winter weather. The cyclical
nature of unemployment could induce some workers to remain in the
Beulah area between construction peaks, and ready access to deer
populations, especially in winter, could make game poaching
attractive. Antelope might also suffer, although their wide-
ranging habits make access more difficult. If poaching becomes
widespread, the number of deer and antelope that could safely be
harvested by legitimate hunters would decrease.^
Demand for hunting and fishing will continue to increase
over the 1980-1990 decade. Fishing pressure could exceed the
capacity of existing hatcheries, but the two large reservoirs on
the Missouri will probably continue to meet demands for fishing,
especially if recent introductions of such open-water fish as
coho, lake trout, and lake whitefish are successful. Upland
gamebirds could become somewhat scarcer around Beulah and
Because illegal hunting takes pregnant females and non-
breeding young, it can reduce the number of breeding adults.
727
-------
Bismarck-Mandan. Continued expansion of cropland 'and reduction
of fencerow and roadside cover will also lower production of
small game during the 1980-1990 time frame (particularly ring-
necked pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and sharptail grouse).
Demand for big game hunting will exceed supply by a growing
margin.
Increased populations will also place greater demands on the
more accessible outdoor recreational resources of the area. On
or adjacent to the two mainstem Missouri reservoirs, most contin-
uing human activity will be confined to specific public access
areas, although displacement of game onto private land during
hunting seasons is likely. Deterioration of plant communities
due to recreational use is more likely to occur in the Little
Missouri Badlands. Depending on the access and use restrictions
placed on these lands by the Forest Service, there is a potential
for serious erosion problems arising from vehicle use. Even with
stringent regulations, a certain amount of illegal use of off-
road vehicles is likely to occur due to the difficulty of enforcing
regulations over such an extensive area. Presently, the Little
Missouri channel is used in winter as a snowmobile course.
Additional use, proportional to population increases, could place
a potential stress on deer.l
Population peaks of the early and middle 1980's could result
in temporary discharges of municipal sewage effluents into the
Knife River and Spring Creek. Impacts of such discharge could be
exacerbated in the 1980-1990 time frame if mine dewatering and
runoff control results in lowered base flow in these two streams.
The extent and seriousness of nutrient enrichment problems
depends both on the amount and character of effluents discharged
and on the base flows of affected streams.
C. Impacts to 2000
The last decade of the scenario includes the construction
and operation of two mine-mouth Synthahe plants, with a loss of
1,800 additional acres of grassland/cropland habitat and 40 acres
of shrubland or woodland. Mining and reclamation will continue
to alter acreage. Beulah and Hazen will be centers of the high
construction population in 1995. The land removed from agri-
cultural production in this decade would otherwise produce for-
age equivalent to the yearly requirements of roughly 16 cows
with calves, or 80 sheep, and an average yearly yield of 32,970
bushels of wheat, based on 1973 yield averages.
A recently published study on white-tailed deer suggests
that increased^movement caused by harrassment could substantially
increase energy metabolic expenditures. Moen, A.N. "Energy
Conservation by White-Tailed Deer in the Winter." Ecology.
Vol. 57 (Winter 1976), pp. 192-98.
728
-------
Emissions of criteria air pollutants under most conditions
will not result in ground-level concentrations likely to produce
chronic damage to range or cropland vegetation. Sulfur dioxide
concentrations similar to those causing chronic damage to wheat
under experimental conditions may occur for brief periods.
•Therefore, sulfur dioxide emissions are not likely to signifi-
cantly limit crop or forage yields. The addition of sulfur to
mineral cycles as particulate fallout or rain washout might be
beneficial in sulfur-deficient soils of the area.
Trace elements, including mercury, fluorine, lead, arsenic,
zinc, copper, and uranium, will be emitted chiefly from the
power plants.2 These elements will eventually enter the crop and
grassland mineral cycles, but their pathways through the eco-
system are not well known. Therefore, the exact impact of their
introduction cannot be predicted. Trace element buildup in both
soils and vegetation has been recorded downwind of several power
plants, but consequent toxic effects have not been documented.
D. Impacts After 2000
When all the scenario activities have been completed, a
total of 82,320 acres of grassland/cropland and roughly 2,080
acres of tall shrubland will have been mined. The long-term
ecological impact of mining will depend on the success of reclamation
and the extent that mines are replaced by new croplands.
The climate of North Dakota is generally favorable for
reclamation, and several land-use options are possible.3 Resto-
ration of mined areas for use ias cropland is typically attractive
because of its relatively low, cost. It is also possible to
restore these mined areas to a mixed-grass prairie, consisting
Painter, E.P. "Sulfur in Forages." North Dakota Agri-
cultural Experiment Station Bimonthly Bulletin, Vol. 5 (No. 5,
1943) , pp. 20-22.
2
Some North and South Dakota lignites have locally high
concentrations of uranium, in excess of 0.1 percent. Swanson,
Vernon E., et al. Composition and Trace Element Content of Coal,
Northern Great Plains Area, U.S. Department of the Interior
Report 52-83. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office,
1974, p. 7.
Sandoval, P.M., et al. "Lignite Mine Spoils in the Nor-
thern Great Plains: Characteristics and Potential for Recla-
mation, " Paper presented before the Research and Applied Tech-
nology Symposium on Mined Land Reclamation. Pittsburg, Pa,:
Bituminous Coal Research, Inc., 1973.
729
-------
(at least in part) of native species, and suitable for grazing.
Normal succession to a mature grassland in similar areas takes
15-20 years after disturbance. 1 Wildlife habitat values can be
restored for many upland game species by the use of woody
plantings for food and cover.2
The resemblance between reclaimed mined areas and early
stages of grassland development may result in colonization by
species which typically characterize early stages of grassland
development, such as various ground squirrels, the western har-
vest mouse, and horned lark. In mature grasslands and successful
reclaimed areas, antelope, sharptail grouse, jack-rabbits, and a
variety of small birds (typified by the chestnut-collared long-
spur) are characteristically predominant. However, species
adapted to croplands will differ little from those which may be
expected to colonize newly reclaimed areas.
Certain overburden characteristics could potentially limit
the success of reclamation, at least locally. High sodium
levels occur in some of the strata overlying several existing
mines in western North Dakota, and the problem appears to be
widespread over the lignite fields of the Fort Union Formation.3
Unless carefully buried, these layers could inhibit plant growth
and prove highly susceptible to erosion. Further, even if
buried, increased infiltration of water leaching through the
unconsolidated spoil material could bring salts from these
layers to the surface.
Aikman, J.M. "Secondary Plant Succession on Muscatine
Island, Iowa." Ecology, Vol. 11 (July 1930), pp. 577-88.
Tolstead, W.L. "Plant Communities and Secondary Succession in
South-Central South Dakota." Ecology, Vol. 22 (July 1941),
pp. 322-28.
2
Early experience at the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah
mine has shown that ungraded spoil piles, planted with a mixture
of wildlife food plants, are abundant in upland species such as
grouse, pheasant, and rabbits, which typically suffer heavy
losses because of winter storms. Large numbers of white-tailed
deer from the adjacent Knife River Valley also find shelter
in the area. Legal provisions requiring that spoils be
graded to resemble the original topography under these circum-
stances reduces potential value for wildlife.
3
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains. General
Technical Report INT-14.Odgen, Utah:U.S., Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range
Experiment Station, 1974.
730
-------
The impact on agricultural production of facility siting by
decade, and of progresssive strip mining, is summarized in Table
11-36. Calculated losses due to mining assume that either
grazing or cropland value will be fully restored in 5 years, but
that mined lands would not be used for any agricultural purposes
until then. This assumption is probably conservative. It was
further assumed that each mine will be operated for 30 years,
and that after the initial 5 years of operation, an amount of
land equal to 17 percent of the total mine tract will be unre-
claimed at any given time. As shown in the table, crop produc-
tion could be strongly affected, although in practice not all of
the acreage lost would be planted to wheat, which lowers the
percentage loss as compared with 1974 harvest. Livestock pro-
duction losses, however, would be insignificant.
11.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts
Table 11-37 summarizes the effects of the changes discussed
above on the area's game species, rare or endangered species,
and selected indicators of ecological change.
The major scenario influences on deer and antelope popula-
tions in the area are expected to be localized habitat frag-
mentation and, possibly, illegal harvest. This will probably
be more important for area-wide antelope population because
changes will occur to the less plentiful quality habitat.
Upland game is expected to begin a localized decline in the
early 1980's. Wild turkey, with harvests carefully controlled
by the state of North Dakota, will probably not show major
declines attributable to the scenario. However, many species
are likely to experience regionwide reductions in numbers as a
result of clearing grasslands, wetlands, and river bottoms for
agriculture.
Endangered species, including bald eagles and peregrine
falcons that are occasionally seen in the area, may be adversely
affected by the scenario. Both species are subject to illegal
shooting. Bald eagles also tend to be sensitive to human dis-
turbance within 1 or 2 miles of a nest? increased human popu-
lation and activity along the Missouri could therefore reduce
the likelihood of restoring a breeding population of eagles.
The number of peregrines visiting the area is probably con-
trolled by conditions in their breeding range; consequently, the
potential impact of illegal shooting the Beulah area on the
number of birds seen there from year to year is difficult to
specify.
The black-footed ferret is known to be in the area from a
recent sighting near Medora but has not been located in the
Beulah vicinity. The major threat to this species, aside from
731
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TABLE 11-36: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FOREGONE
Period
1975-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
Post-2000c
Cumulative
Total
Mercer-Oliver
County Production
1974<*
Cumulative Loss
as % of County
Production
Cropland
Acres Lost
3,590
1,130
1,200
8,880
14,800
Yield
Foregone3
89,630
28,170
29,970
222,105
369,870
2,086,300
18%
Grazing Land
Acres Lost
1,770
560
590
4,780
7,700
Cows/Calves13
50
15
16
130
211
90,922
0.2%
Sheep13
5
1
1
7
14
3,598
0.4%
OJ
DO
aAssuming all cropland is in wheat.
Assuming 99 percent of all animal units are cattle, 1 percent sheep.
cAssuming that at equilibrium, 17 percent of all mined land is unreclaimed.
Livestock inventory and wheat figures from U.S. Department of Commerce Census of
Agriculture.
-------
TABLE 11-37: FORECAST FOR SELECTED SPECIES FOR THE BEULAH SCENARIO3
CO
CO
Game Animals
Antelope
White-titled deer
Sharptail Grouse,
Hungarian Partridge,
Pheasant
Cottontail Babbit
Rare or Endangered
Species
National Level
Peregrine Falcon
Black-footed
Ferret
Bald Eagle
Other Uncommon Species
North Kit Fox
(swift fox)
1980
Slight to moderate decline
' in density in Beulah area .
Little change or slight
decline in density in
Beulah area.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change.
Little change, unless
directly displaced by
mining or facilities
.siting.
Little change.
Little Change.
1990
Moderate decline throughout
Beulah area, possible reduc-
tion in huntable populations.
Slight decline in areawide
populations, if illegal
kills are high around
Beulah. Possible slight
decline in the Little
Missouri Badlands if
heavy recreational use.
Slight declines in density
around Beulah.
Little change areawide,
local declines where strip
mining eliminates habitat.
Possible loss of indivi-
duals due to illegal
shooting.
Little change, unless
directly displaced by
mining or facilities
siting.
Likelihood of reestablishing
nesting pair along the
Missouri River may be
reduced .
Possible loss of individuals
through trapping and hunting
for predators.
2000
Harked decline throughout
Beulah area, definite reduc-
tion in huntable populations.
Areawide numbers continued
slightly below 1975 levels
from habitat fragmentation,
poaching, and recreational use
in the Badlands. If mined
lands reclaimed for wildlife,
some deer may winter there.
Continued slight to moderate
decline in areawide numbers
unless mined lands are
extensively reclaimed for
wildlife values.
Little change areawide, local
declines from mining, count
balanced by reclamation if
adequate cover is provided.
Possible loss of individuals
due to illegal shooting.
Little change, unless
directly displaced by
mining or facilities
siting.
Likelihood of reestablishing
nesting pair along the Missouri
River may be reduced.
Possible loss of individuals
through trapping and hunting
for predators.
-------
TABLE 11-37: (Continued)
U)
Prairie Falcon,
Ferruginous Hawk,
Prairie Merlin
Burrowing Owl
American Osprey
Indicators of Ecological
Change
Mining and Reclamation
Jackrabbit, Chestnut-
collared Longspur,
Ferruginous Hawk
Horned Lark
Thirteen-lined
Ground Squirrel
Eutrophication
Largemouth Bass
1980
Possible loss of
breeding individuals
due to illegal shooting.
Possible localized losses
due to habitat' loss,
probably not of a
regional significance.
Little change.
Little change .
Little change .
Little change .
If dissolved oxygen
concentrations fall
below 4 milligrams per
liter, bass will either
avoid? polluted waters,
or will be smaller in
size.
1990
Possible loss of
breeding individuals
due to illegal shooting.
Possible localized losses
due to habitat loss,
probably not of a
regional significance.
Little change.
Local losses where strip
mining eliminates habitat,
continued low numbers on
lands reclaimed for crop-
land.
May become the dominant bird
on reclaimed lands in early
stages of succession, and
lands reclaimed for crops .
If conditions favor bur-
rowing may become abundant
on reclaimed lands in early
stages of succession.
If dissolved oxygen
concentrations fall
below 4 milligrams per
liter, bass will either
avoid polluted water,
or will be smaller in
size.
2000
Possible loss of
breeding individuals
due to illegal shooting.
Possible localized losses
due to habitat loss,
probably not of a
regional significance.
Little change.
Continued local losses from
mining. Return (in later
stages of succession) to areas
reclaimed to grazing land.
Continued dominance on early
succession reclamation land-
scapes, lowered dominance on
late succession grasslands and
areas reclaimed for wildlife.
Continued abundance on succes-
sional lands, increasing as
soil structure develops and
improves conditions for
burrowing.
If dissolved oxygen
concentrations fall
below 4 milligrams per
liter, bass will either
avoid polluted water,
or will be smaller in
size.
"This chart reflects the influence of the energy developments only. Continued expansion of cultivation under present
U.S. Department of Agriculture policy will occasion additional impacts.
-------
direct destruction of habitat, would be through reduction of
prairie dog numbers by varmint hunters.
The endangered Northern Kit (swift) Fox is susceptible to
traps set for other species, and is mistaken for a young coyote
by hunters. With increased numbers of people participating in
these activities, this species could be reduced in numbers, or
lost altogether.
Table 11-38 summarizes the major factors producing ecolog-
ical impacts in the Beulah scenario area. These have been
grouped into three classes, based on their geographic extent and
the number of species they affect.
Sulfur dioxide pollution is given a Class C rating because
its impact on vegetation, measured as productivity, will be at
least an order of magnitude less than the effects of normal year-
to-year variations in climatic factors and grazing pressure. The
impact of land-use changes on agricultural production will like-
wise be small, usually less than .1 percent of county totals.
Most of the impacts of rising human populations fall into
Class B, namely: illegal shooting, increased use of delicate
badlands areas, and discharge of sewage treatment effluents into
surface waters. Conversion of native rangeland to cropland as
mining and reclamation proceed is also included. These impacts
rate higher in severity because they can potentially alter the
size of aireawide populations of some animals or bring about
shifts in community composition in habitats of restricted
occurrence.
, Class A impacts are considered to be the pivotal problems
reponsible for the projected animal population impacts discussed
above. In the Beulah scenario, habitat removal, fragmentation,
and the incidental disturbances coincident with urban growth
within an area of high-quality wildlife habitat. Most criti-
cally, these impacts are difficult to manage or reverse.
11.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop-
ments in the Beulah area will be production and export of 3,000
megawatts-electric of electricity and 1 billion cubic feet per
day of synthetic natural gas by the year 2000. Locally, the
benefits include increases in retail trade, income to residents,
state and local governments, and secondary economic development.
/
Social, economic, and political changes in the 3-county
area will stem primarily from the overall 53-percent growth in
population. The distribution of this growth will determine the
severity of the impacts. The new jobs are expected to raise the
median income in the area about 50 percent above the 1975 level.
735
-------
TABLE 11-38: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Impact
Category
1975-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
Class A
Direct removal and
fragmentation of
habitat.
Zones of urban
activity.
Direct removal and
fragmentation of
habitat.
Zones of urban
activity.
Direct removal and
fragmentation of
habitat.
Zones of urban
activity.
Class B
-j
GJ
Illegal shooting.
Discharge of muni-
cipal sewage
effluents.
Illegal shooting.
Discharge of muni-
cipal sewage
effluents.
Excessive recre-
ational use of
badlands.
Conversion of
native range to
cropland via
reclamation.
Illegal shooting.
Excessive recre-
ational use of
badlands.
Conversion of
native range to
cropland via
reclamation.
Class C
Grazing, crop
losses.
SO2 emissions.
Grazing, crop
losses.
SO2 emissions.
Grazing, crop
losses.
Enhancing
Some Species
Reservoir on the
Knife River.
Reservoir on the
Knife River.
Reservoir on the
Knife River.
-------
The increased demand for housing will be largely met by mobile
homes. Medical care and other professional services are expected
to be seriously lacking throughout the three-county area. As a
result of the development, agriculture's dominant position in the
economy will be replaced by coal-related sectors. Exporting
coal would significantly reduce both the adverse and beneficial
effects of much of the population growth, as well as lower prop-
erty tax benefits to local governments.
As presently configured, the planned facilities will have a
minimal effect on the local air quality. The four gasification
plants do not cause any North Dakota or federal ambient standards
to be exceeded. However, although power plant emissions meet
federal ambient standards, they exceed the North Dakota 1-hour
sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) ambient stan-
dards. In addition, general urban development at Beulah will
cause both the federal and state 3-hour hydrocarbons standards to
be exceeded by 1985. Also, the plumes of the plants will be
visible from many locations in the area, and the average long-
range visibility will be reduced about 10 percent when all the
facilities are operating and to a greater extent during periods
of air stagnation.
The SO2 emissions could be decreased through an improvement
in scrubber efficiency, the pre-combustion washing of the coal,
or through a reduction in plant operating capacity. Although
scrubbers for N02 are still in the experimental stage, these
emissions can be controlled, to a limited extent, by boiler
firing modifications such as staged firing, low excess air, and
reduction of plant capacity, or by exporting coal.
The water consumption attributed to the energy facilities
and their associated development is not expected to significantly
deplete groundwater or surface-water resources. Although there
will be no intentional discharges of pollutants to groundwaters
or surface waters, deterioration of local water quality may
result from the failure of settling and holding ponds and the
improper disposal of urban sanitary wastes. The integrity of
the storage ponds may be breached via the leaching of chemicals
through the pond liners or from the erosion of pond dikes; both
possibilities will become more likely as the facilities age.
Sewage disposal, although not presently a problem in the area,
is expected to become serious as the urban growth out-paces the
ability of municipalities to respond. This problem will be most
evident during periods of peak growth which occur in the mid-
1980 's and mid-1990's.
Although surface waters are most abundant in this scenario,
technological changes could further reduce depletions. The
potential exists for using wet-dry cooling towers for the hypo-
thetical conversion facilities in this scenario but at consid-
erable expense. Local water quality could be mitigated through
737
-------
the installation of recyclable waste disposable systems or
packaged systems for mobile home parks (which comprise a large
portion of the new housing).
Ecological impacts in the scenario will stem largely from
the population increases. Therefore, the area surrounding
Beulah will probably be the most severely impacted. As a result
of habitat fragmentation, the productivity of selected species
will likely decrease. Poaching is also expected to be a serious
problem unless positive steps are initiated in game protection
and management. Other impacts of human activities will include
simplification of ecosystem structure (with increases in rela-
tive abundance of fewer species) and loss of soil nutrients due
to erosion.
Controls over human use of the area, such as permits for
recreational use and zoning, would minimize attrition of habitat.
Provisions for habitat control in the river valley, and habitat
management programs on farmlands can also affect changes to
vegetation and animal abundance.
738
-------
CHAPTER 12
THE REGIONAL IMPACTS OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
12.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter reports the results of analysis of the regionwide
impacts likely to occur when energy resources in the eight-state
study area are developed. As Chapter 1 indicates, coal, oil
shale, uranium, oil, gas, and geothermal resources are found
within the eight-state area. Coal and oil shale are the most
abundant and easily extractable; in fact, the region contains
almost 40 percent of the nation's demonstrated coal reserves and
90 percent of the nation's identified oil shale resources. The
region also contains 10 percent the nation's geothermal reserves,
90 percent of its uranium, 26 percent of its oil, and 8 percent
of its natural gas reserves.
Although energy resources are scattered throughout the
eight-state area, distribution patterns vary considerably among
the resources. For example, coal is found in all eight states.1
The largest concentrations are found in the Northern Great
Plains. Large, high-grade oil shale deposits are concentrated in
the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. The
largest deposits of uranium are found in New Mexico and Wyoming.
Crude oil and natural gas reserves are also largest in New Mexico
and Wyoming; however, both resources are also found in Colorado,
Utah, and North and South Dakota. Geothermal resources have not
been well identified but apparently occur in six of the eight
states; the two exceptions are the Dakotas.2
See University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy
Program. Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Wash-
ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975.
2
Data on all the resources are limited and often of ques-
tionable quality. Locating^and defining resources have higher
priorities now than before tjhe 1973 energy crisis; however, data
are still generally inadequate and will probably continue to be
so for the near-term future. '
739
-------
Stanford Research Institute's (SRI) interfuel competition
model was used to establish the three levels of energy resource
development required in the eight states resulting from three
projections of national energy demands between the present and
2000.! The SRI model was used because it is recent, readily
available and well-documented, projects energy demand to the
year 2000, analyzes multiple scenarios, and disaggregates geo-
graphically to the area of interest to this study. At the time
a model was needed to establish levels of development for the
eight western states, the SRI model was considered to be the best
available. However, the overall national energy demands assumed
are somewhat higher than are now being projected. At the time
the SRI model was formulated, those demands were reasonable, but
energy growth has fallen substantially since then and the projec-
tions now appear high. Some of the limitations of the SRI model
include:
1. The contribution predicted from oil shale grows
very rapidly in the 1990-2000 decade (from five
to forty-two 100,000-barrels-per-day plants),
although it now seems unlikely that development
at that rate could be accomplished.
2. Western coal is assumed to be of one composi-
tion and heating value throughout the West.
Actually, wide variations exist, such as
between North Dakota lignite and Kaiparowits
bituminous.
3. Only limited account is taken of the availability
of equipment and personnel to accomplish the
development indicated. As noted, later in this
chapter, both could tend to constrain develop-
ments to levels below those indicated.
4. Installation of flue gas desulfurization control
equipment (stack gas scrubbers) is not considered
on electrical power generating plants using
western coal, and all coal was considered to be
produced from surface mines.
5. Oil shale was considered to be produced solely
from surface mines, and in situ oil shale retorting
is not considered.
1
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park,
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
740
-------
These assumptions and omissions constrain the utility of the
model; however, it does serve the primary purpose of this study,
which is to determine the likely consequences if_ specified supply
levels are drawn from the western U.S. During the remainder of
the study, other models may be used to project future levels of
development, or the SRI model may be modified.
The SRI model considers various combinations of energy
resources that could supply energy demands at a particular loca-
tion at a particular time. Estimates are made of the costs of
delivered energy in a particular form from various sources, and
an economic analysis is made to determine the quantity provided
by each source of supply. For example, distillate fuel oil in
Chicago could be supplied from: crude oil produced in Wyoming
and piped to Chicago for refining; oil shale mined, retorted, and
upgraded to synthetic crude oil in Colorado, then piped to Chi-
cago for refining; or coal mined and converted to synthetic crude
oil in Montana, then piped to Chicago for refining. Each of
these "paths", as well as others, must be analyzed as part of the
entire U.S. energy system to determine the fraction of demand to
be met by each resource at each location.
Three demand levels were assumed in the analysis of supply
alternatives; these are SRI's Nominal, Low Demand, and Low
Nuclear Availability cases. The Nominal case assumes a demand
30 percent of the way between the demands predicted by the Ford
Foundation's Historical Growth and Technical Fix scenarios for
the 1975-2000 period.1 (The Historical Growth case examines the
consequences of continuing an average growth rate in energy con-
sumption of 3.5 percent per year. The Technical Fix case is an
attempt to anticipate the results of a variety of voluntary and
mandatory energy conservation measures.) The Nominal Demand case
predicts an energy supply of 156.9 quads (Q) for the year 2000
and an end use demand of 79.98Q.2
The Low Demand case corresponds to the Ford Foundation's
Technical Fix Scenario and results in an annual growth rate of
approximately 2.1 percent. It predicts an energy supply of
129.5Q for the year 2000 with an end use demand of 67.97Q.
The Low Nuclear Availability case assumed nominal demand but
constrained the analysis by assuming that no new nuclear power
Ford Foundation, Energy Policy Project. A Time to Choose:
America's Energy Future. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974.
o
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.:
;Stanford Research Institute, 1976. Losses within the system
account for the difference between the supply and end use demand
numbers.
741
-------
plants would be constructed and that existing nuclear plants
would continue to operate until they wear out. This case was
included because the Nominal case predicts that half of the
electricity produced in 2000 will be nuclear (a prediction that
now seems unlikely) and because if the development of nuclear
power is constrained, coal production will be substantially
increased. In effect, then, the Low Nuclear Availability case
provides a high coal demand case to compare to the other two
scenarios.
The projections for the three cases are given in Tables
12-1, 12-2, and 12-3. As used in the SRI model, the "Powder
River Region" refers to the states of Montana, Wyoming, and
North and South Dakota;1 the "Rocky Mountain Region" includes
New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. Allocations of national
nuclear production were based on present production rates. The
number of facilities required were calculated by assuming the
typical facility sizes and capacity factors shown in Tables 12-1,
12-2, and 12-3 and determining how many standard-size facilities
would be needed for the total production indicated.2
The geographical distribution of development was carried out
on a regional basis by considering only two subregions, the Pow-
der River Region and the Rocky Mountain area. Further disaggre-
gation to states and counties within states was generally propor-
tioned on the basis of where proven reserves are located. Some
disaggregation was based on the location of announced energy
facility development. This process was carried to the county
level to support some of the subsequent analyses. However,
depending on both the availability of land and support services
and the legal structures involved, actual development may extend
over an area that includes several counties.
In addition to regional impacts, this chapter reports the
results of selected local, subregional, and national impact anal-
yses. The local impacts considered are those common to all
sites, for which existing data, the current state of knowledge,
and/or analytical tool development are inadequate to support a
site-specific analysis, or which are the aggregated local impacts
of combinations of site-specific developments. Subregional
impact analyses are limited to the major river basins in the
eight-state area. The selected national impacts considered are
limited to major economic and fiscal concerns, such as the avail-
ability of capital, materials, personnel, and equipment.
In the SRI model, the Powder River region includes the
Powder River Basin and the Fort Union Basin. With several
smaller geologic basins, this area may be considered equivalent
to the Northern Great Plains Region.
2The disaggregations used here are based on the SRI model
but were constructed by the Science and Public Policy Program-
Radian research team.
742
-------
TABLE 12-1:
PROJECTION OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE PRODUCTION
NOMINAL DEMAND CASEa
Energy Type
Coald
Mines
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Direct Use
Unit Train
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Slurry Pipeline
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Gasification
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Liquefaction
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Electrical Generation
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Oil Shale
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Uranium Fuel
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Gas (Methane)
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Domestic Crude Oil
Powder River
Rocky Mountain..
Total U.S. Production (Q)b
1975
10.26
8.61
8.61
.0
0
0
3.04
0
2.19
19.71
16.61
1980
15.12
11.98
10.46
1.52
0
0
4.35
0.001
5.34
23.73
21.10
1985
21.17
15.61
11.06
4.55
0.02
0.02
5.14
0.38
10.77
26.40
24.75
1990
25.12
17.'05
11.06
5.99
0.61
0.20
5.59
0.92
13.90
26.02
25.96
2000
50.99
23.98
11.93
12.05
7.80
1.84
6.66
8.07
26.10
18.34
22.79
Fraction of U.S. Production
From West (%)
1975
15.3
8
7.2
17.4
17.4
9.7
7.8
1
0'
1
89
34.2
54.8
8.7
0
8.7
8.6
0
8.6
1980
33.3
25.2
8.2
31.1
30.6
23.9
6.7
34.2
30.3
3.9
11
7.1
3.9
100
0
100
89.3
34.6
54.7
8.3
0
8.3
8
0
8
1985
46.2
38.3
7.9
43.4
43.3
37
6.3
43.7
39.6
4.2
20
20
0
18.1
13 '
5.1
100
0
100
91
35.2
55.8
8.1
0
8.1
6.3
0
6.3
1990
50.2
42.9
7.4
48.7
48.2
42
6.1
49.6
45.2
4.3
37.7
36.1
1.6
0.5
0.5
0
19.3
14.3
5
100
0
100
91.1
35.3
55.8
8
0
a
5.1
0
5.1
2000
58.7'
53.2
5.4
61.8
59.3
53.9
5.4
64.3
59.5
4.8
49.1
47.1
2.1
16.6
16.4
0.2
21.5
17.3
4.2
100
0
100
91
35.2
55.8
5.8
0
5.8
4.5
0
4.5
Number of Facilities
Required in Western Regionc
1975
19
10
9
4
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
7
3
4
19
0
19
7
0
7
1980
60
45
15
8
6
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
5
3
0
0
0
16
6
10
22
0
22
8
0
8
1985
116
95
21
12
10
2
5
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
11
4
2
0
2
33
13
20
23
0
23
8
0
8
1990
149
127
22
13
11
2
7-
6
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
18
13
5
5
0
5
42
16
26
23
0
23
6
0
6
2000
351
319
32
17'
15
2
18
17
1
47
45
2
1.5
2 .
0
23
18
5
42
0
42
79
31
48
12
0
12
5
0
5
LO
Q a 10*5 British thermal unit(s). One Q « 179 mi'llion barrels of oil, = 60 million tons of western coal, or 1 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas.
Based on Standard Research Institute Nominal case and Ford Foundation data.
Input values for coal direct use: output values for others.
cFacility sizes and load factors assumed ares mines, 5 million tons per year (MMtpy) (100 percent); unit trains and slurry pipelines,
25 MMtpy (100 percent) ; gasification, 250 million standard cubic feet per day (90 percent) ; liquefaction, 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day)
(90 percent); electrical generation, 3,000 megawatts-electric (70 percent); oil shale, 100,000 bbl/day (90 percent); uranium fuel, 1,000
tons per year of yellowcake (90 percent); gas (methane), 250 million cubic feet per day (100 percent); domestic crude oil, 100,000 bbl/day
(100 percent).
Coal subcategories do not add to total because of other usage; for example, hydrogen from coal.
-------
TABLE 12-2:
,PROJECTION OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE PRODUCTION
LOW DEMAND CASE3
Energy Type
Coald
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Direct Use
Unit Train
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Slurry Pipeline
Powder River
x-. Rocky Mountains
Gasification
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Liquefaction
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Electrical Generation
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Oil Shale
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Uranium Fuel
Powder River,
Rocky Mountains
Gas (Methane)
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Domestic Crude Oil
Powder River
Rooky Mountains
Total U.S. Production (Q)b
1975-
10.26
8.61
8.61
0
0
0
3.04
0
2.19
19.71
16.61
1980
13.36
10.65
9.34
1.31
0
0
3.40
0.001
4.56
23.12
21.16
1985
17.40
12.88
9.17
3.71
0.01
0
3.85
0.34
8.28
25.21
24.46
1990
20.24
13.82
9.02
4.80
0.37
0.05
4.01
0.86
10.40
24.61
25.37
2000
38.65
18.75
9.35
9.40
4.90
0.79
4.53
6.68
18.80
17.69
22.62
Fraction of U.S. Production
From West (%)
1975
15.3
8
7.2
17.4
17.4
9.7
7.8
1
0
1
89
34.2
54.8
8.7
0
8.7-
8.6
0
8.6
1980
32 .
24.2
7.9
29.4
29
22.6
6.4
32.1
29
3.1
12
7.9
4.1
100
0
100
91
35.3
55.7
8.6
0
8.6
8.2
0
8-2
1985
44.1
36.6
7.5
41
40.8
34.8
6
41.5
37.5
4
10
10
0
19
13.8
5.2
100
0
100
91.1
35.3
55.8
7.9
0
7.9
6.5.
0
6.5
1990
48.4
41.4
7.1
46.2
45.8
39.9
5.9
47.1
42.9
4.2
40.5
40.5
0
2
2
0
20.9
• 15.7
5.2
100
0
100
91
35.2
55.8
7.7
0
7.7
5.3
0
.5.3
2000
57.2
52.1
5.1
59
56.5
51.4
5
61.6
57.2
4.4
46.9
45.1
1.8
47.5
46.7
0.8
23.8
19.4
4.4
100
0
100
91
35.2
55.8
6.7
0
6.7
4
0
4
Number of Facilities
Required in Western Region0
1975
19
10
9
4
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
7
3
4
19
0
19
7
0
7
1980
51
38
13
7
5
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
4
2
0
0
0
14
5
9.
22
0
22
8
0
8
1985
91
75
16
9
8
1
4
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
9
3
2
0
2
25
10
15
22
0.
22
8
0
8
1990
116
99
17
10
9
1
6
5
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
13
10
3
5
0
5
32
12
20
21
0
21
6
0
6
2000
260
237
23
12
11
1
. 14
13
1
28
27
1
2
2
0
17
14
3
35
0
35
57
22
35
13
0
13
4.5
0
5
British thermal unit(s). One Q « 179 million barrels of oil, = 60 million tons of western coal, or 1 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas.
^ased on Standard Research Institute Low Nuclear Availability case and Ford Foundation data.
Input values for coal direct use; output values for others.
cFacility sizes and load factors assumed are: mines, 5 million tons per year (MMtpy) (100 percent); unit trains and slurry pipelines,
25 MMtpy (100 percent); gasification, 250 million standard cubic feet per day (90 percent); liquefaction, 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day)
(90 percent); electrical generation, 3,000 megawatts-electric (70 percent); oil shale, 100,000 bbl/day (90•percent); uranium fuel, 1,000
tons per year of yellowcake (90 percent) j gas (methane), 250-million cubic feet per day (100 percent) ; domestic crude oil, 100,000 bbl/day
(100 percent).
Coal subcategories do not add to total because of other usage; for example, hydrogen from coa-l.
-------
TABLE 12-3:
PROJECTION OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE PRODUCTION
LOW NUCLEAR AVAILABILITY CASEa
Energy Type
Coal<*
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Direct Use
Unit Train
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Slurry Pipelines
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Gasification
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Liquefaction
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Electrical Generation
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Oil Shale
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Uranium Fuel
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Gas (Methane)
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Domestic Crude Oil
Powder River
Rocky Mountains
Total 0.S. Production (Q)b
1975
10.26
8.61
8.61
0
0
0
3.04
0
2.19
19.71
16.61
1980
17.72
13.85
12.03
1,82
0
0
5.31
0.001
1.48
24.30
21.02
1985
28.79
22.02
14.89
7.13
0.01
0
8.09
0.32
0.98
26.97
24.77
1990
3S..43
24.70
15.91
8.79
0.54
0.02
9.40
0.84
0.78
26.55
26.02
2000
71.01
39.60
19.77
19.8J
7.31
0.35
14.45
7.88
0.34 .
18.78
23.36
Fraction of U.S. Production
From West (%)
• 1975
15.3
8
7.2
17.4
17.4
9.7
7.8
1
0
1
89
34.2
54.8
8.7
0
8.7
8.6
0
8.6
1980
34.*
27.1
7.8
33.1
32.8
26.6
6.2
34.1
30... 8
3.3
10.9
7
• 4
100
0
100
91.2
35.1
56.1
• 8.1
0
8.1
7.9
0
7.9
1985
46
38.8
7.2
42.9
45.1
39.6
5.5
38.4
35.5
2.9
30
30
0
15
10.6
4.3
100
0
100
90.8
35.7
55.1
8
0
8
6.3
0
6.3
1990
49.4
42.7
6.7
49.1
49.2
44
5.2
49
45.6
3.4
37
35.2
1.9
5
5
0
16
11.6
4.4
100
0
100
91
35.9
55.1
7.9
0
7.9
5
0
5
2000
55.6
50.2
5.4
58.7
56.5
52.3
4.2
60.9
57.3
3.6
45.5
43.6
1.8
37.9
37.1
0.3
17.2
13.1
4.2
100
0
100
91.2
35.3
55.9
5.8
0
5.8
4.4
0
4.4
Number of Facilities
Required in Western Regionc
1975
19
10
9
4
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
'1
0
1 •
0
0
0
7
3
4
19
0
19
7
0
7
1980
73
57
16
10
8'
2
1
1
. 0
0
0
0
.0
0
0
9
6
3
0
0
0
5
2
3
22
0
22
8
0
e
1985
157
132
25
16
14
2
7
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
14
6
2
0
2
3
1
2
24
0
24
8
0
8
1990
207
179
28
18
16
2
11
10
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
24
17
7
4
0
4
2
1
1
23
0
23
6
0
6
2000
470
424
46
26
24
2
29
27
2
42
40
2
1
1
0
40
30
10
41
0
41
1
0
1
12
0
12
5
0
5
Q » 1015 British thermal unit(s). One Q - 179 million barrels of oil, - 60 million tons of western coal, or.l trillion cubic feet of
natural gas.
a8ased on Standard Research Institute Low Demand case and Ford Foundation data.
Input values for coal direct use; output values for others.
cFacility sizes and load factors assumed are: mines, 5 million tons per year (MMtjsy) (100 percent)j unit trains and slurry pipelines,
25 MMtpy (100 percent) i gasification, 250 million standard cubic feet per day (90 percent)t liquefaction, 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day)
(90 percent); electrical generation, 3,000 megawatts-electric (70 percent); oil shale, 100,000 bbl/day (90 percent); uranium fuel, 1,000
tons per year of yellowcake (90 percent); gas (methane), 250 million cubic feet per day (100 percent).; domestic crude oil, 100,000 bbl/day
(100 percent). '
Coal subcategories do not add to total because of other usage; for example, hydrogen from coal.
-------
12.2 AIR IMPACTS
12.2.1 Introduction
This section estimates total particulate, sulfur dioxide
(SC>2), nitrogen oxide (NOX), and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions that
could result from the three levels of development being analyzed
between 1976 and 2000. Existing emission levels and air quality
conditions in other areas of the country are included for com-
parison.
Based on the location of resources within the study area,
the sub-areas for which emissions are projected are: Four
Corners (San Juan County, New Mexico); Southern Utah (Kane and
Garfield Counties, Utah); Rocky Mountains (Uintah County, Utah
and Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, Colorado); Powder River
(Big Horn, and Rosebud Counties, Montana and Campbell, Johnson,
and Shindon Counties, Wyoming); and Western North Dakota (Bill-
ings, Bowman, Dunn, Hettiger, Slope, Stark, and Williams County,
North Dakota).
12.2.2 Existing Conditions
A. Air Quality
Table 12-4 gives national ambient air quality standards for
five criteria pollutants,1 and average background levels for
three of these pollutants. Based on the limited data available,
ambient air quality in the eight-state study area appears good
at present. Generally, ambient concentrations of particulates,
Sc>2, and nitrogen dioxide (NC>2) are much lower than national
standards. However, because of the arid climate, short-term
secondary standards for particulates are frequently violated by
wind-blown dust.
Ambient concentration data for oxidants and HC are available.
only on an annual basis for the Rocky Mountain area of northwest
Colorado; they range from 60-70 micrograms per cubic meter
(pg/m3 ) for ozone and about 130 yg/m3 for HC.2 Although ambient
standards for these two pollutants are for short-term measurement
periods (1-hour for oxidants and 3-hour for HC), annual concen-
trations are considered to be good estimates of short-term
Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force: particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
dioxide, photochemical oxidants, hydrocarbons, and carbon mon^-
oxide.
2
Although oxidants exist in many forms, measurements are
specified only for ozone.
746
-------
TABLE 12-4:
REGIONAL AIR QUALITY AND
NATIONAL STANDARDS51
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Pollutant
Particulates,
Annual geometric mean
Maximum 24-hourc
S02
Annual geometric mean
Maximum 24-hourc
Maximum 3 -hour0
N02
Annual geometric mean
°x
Maximum 1-hour
HCd
Maximum 3-hourc
(6-9 am)
Background Level
12-40
10-20
10
Ambient Standards
Primary
75
260
80
365
NA
100
160
160
Secondary
60
150
NA
NA
1,300
100
160
160
HC =? hydrocarbons
NA = not applicable
N02 = nitrogen dioxide
a40 C.F.R. 50 (1976) .
Ox = photochemical oxidants
SO - sulfur dioxide
These levels represent the range of measurements available across
the eight-state study area. Although no short-term measurements
are available for oxidants and HC, annual concentrations are
considered good indicators of baseline concentrations. Annual
averages are 60-70 micrograms per cubic meter (]ig/m3 ) for oxidants
and 130 wg/m3 for HC.
£1
Not to be exceeded more than once a year.
'rhe HC standard serves as a guideline for achieving oxidant
standards.
747
-------
concentrations in rural areas.1 National standards 'for oxidants and
HC concentrations are presently violated in many parts of the West.
B. Meteorology
Meteorological conditions, especially those governing the
dispersion and long-range transport of pollutants, are important
factors in any assessment of likely air quality impacts of
resource development. Dispersion potential in the study area is
generally best during spring and summer, and worst during winter,
in part because afternoon mixing depths are highest during
spring and summer and lowest during winter. The southeastern
part of the study area normally has the highest mixing depths
while the northern part has the lowest. Wind speeds are highest
in the eastern portions and lowest in the western.
Air stagnation can cause serious dispersion problems in the
Upper Colorado River Basin during winter because large masses
of dense, cold air may be trapped between the Rocky and Sierra
Nevada Mountains. Sharp terrain differences west of the Rockies
exacerbate this problem by trapping stagnant air in deep valleys.
In contrast to the Upper Colorado, the Upper Missouri River Basin
has much less air stagnation because of higher winds and less
rugged terrain.
Long-range transport of sulfates and fine particulates can
create pollution problems considerable distances from energy
facilities. Current knowledge of air parcel trajectories sug-
gests that, during summer, the air mass trajectories which both
precede and follow fronts may carry parcels containing pollutants
from development areas to the Denver area.3 However, during
this movement, most pollutants may be dispersed or filtered from
the parcels. Air parcels following fronts may carry air from the:
Powder River Basin to the Denver area; those that precede fronts
may carry air to Denver from the Four Corners area.
Annual averages would not be good estimates of short-term
concentrations in areas affected by man-made sources such as
automobiles, energy facilities, etc.
2
Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.
Denver and Salt Lake are currently the most seriously
polluted areas of the eight-state study area. We have no indi-
cation of air parcels from energy development being carried to
the Salt Lake area.
748
-------
12.2.3 Impacts
A. Introduction
Emissions from the energy facilities deployed in our
scenarios will depend on the technology and the composition of the
coal used at each facility. Table 12-5 gives projected emissions
levels for each technology, given the coal compositions assumed
for each area. This information shows that power plants are
expected to emit the most particulates, SO2/ and NC>2 and that
Synthoil liquefaction and TOSCO II (the Oil Shale Corporation)
oil shale retorting are expected to emit the most HC. Generally,
Synthane gasification would emit the fewest total pollutants,
except for N02 in which case the TOSCO II retorting process will
have the smallest total emissions.
The increase in emissions of each pollutant as a result of
population growth attributable to energy resource development is
equal to the estimated population growth times an urban emission
rate. Population growth estimates are reported in Section 12.5.
As indicated in the Introduction to Part II, each urban emission
rate represents the average of the emission rates for several
cities in the region. The largest urban emission rates would be
for HC and NOX (93 and 76 tons per year [tpy] per 1,000 popula-
tion, respectively); the smallest would be for S02 and particy-
lates (10 and 19 tpy per 1,000 population, respectively).
B. Impacts in Regional Sub-areas
1. Emissions
Emissions in 1975 for each of the five sub-areas and the
Low Nuclear Demand case for the year 2000 are shown in Table
12-6.1 Emissions for these two cases represent the baseline and
maximum emissions expected for each sub-area.
Mathematical models that relate regional emissions to
ambient air concentrations are currently in an embryonic state.
Available models require in-depth analyses of the region's meteo-
rology and climatology, which were beyond the scope of the first
phase of this study. Thus, the analysis of regional air quality
impacts was limited to the use of indices and estimates of
expected changes in emissions over 1975 levels.
See the description of the Stanford Research Institute's
Low Nuclear Demand, Low Demand, and Nominal eases . in the Intro-
duction to this chapter.
749
-------
TABLE 12-5:
EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY FACILITIES
(thousands of tons per year)
Ul
o
Facility
3,000-MWe power plant
70% load factor
250-MMscfd Lurgi
gasification plant,
90% load factor
24-MMscfd Syn thane
gasification plant,
90% load factor
100, 000-bb I/day
Synthoil liquefaction
plant, 90% load
factor
100,000-bbl/day
TOSCO II oil shale
retort, 90% load
factor
State
New Mexico
Utah
Colorado
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
New Mexico
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
New Mexico
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
New Mexico
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
Utah
Colorado
Particulates
9.3
6.3
3.4
8.6
3.7
9.3
1.7
1.8
1.8
2
.84
.87
.84
2.7
3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1
1
S02
30
13
18
43
20
43
19
2.7
1.8
2.7
.91
1.9
.97
3.8
4.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
12
12
NOX
58
46
44
58
49
65
11
9.5
9.6
9.7
6.1
5
3.9
8.6
23
19
19
19
4.5
4.5
HC
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.7
2
.39
.35
.34
.35
.66
.25
.62
.39
6.9
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
bb I/day = barrels per day MWe =
HC = hydrocarbons NOx =
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day SO9 =
megawatts-electric
nitrogen oxides
sulfur dioxide
-------
TABLE 12-6:
SUB-AREA EMISSIONS, 1975 and 2000
(thousands of tons per year)
Pollutant
Particulates
SOy
NO
X
HC
Resource Sub-Area
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Emissions
1975
24
.5
3.5
9.9
29
.2
.2
.5
2.3
54
110
.9
3
11
43
14
1.5
4.1
15
11
Low Nuclear Demand
Scenario, 2000
56
26
57
160
210
130
54
540
600
710
300
190
290
1,100
1,100
33
21
260
150
130
HC = hydrocarbons NO = nitrogen oxides
S02 = sulfur dioxide
Table 12-7 presents "factor increases", or the ratio of
predicted emissions in 2000 to 1975 emissions for each sub-area.
These data are shown for each of the three levels of energy
resource development.! This information shows that the Rocky
Mountain sub-area is expected to have the highest emission
increases among the five sub-areas; emissions would increase as
much as 1,080 times for SO2, 97 times for NOX, and 63 times for
Note that these emission factors are based on assumptions
made about national energy demands which now appear to have over-
estimated domestic resource development. A sensitivity analysis
of these assumptions will be undertaken during the remainder of
the project. Refer to the Introduction to Part II for an expla-
nation of these predictions.
751
-------
TABLE 12-7: EMISSION INCREASES, 1975-2000
en
to
Pollutant
Particulates
S00
2
NO
X
HC
Resource Subarea
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
Factor Increase
in Emissions3
Energy Demand Scenario
Nominal
1.5
30
16
12
5.6
1.2
120
1,200
160
9.3
1.2
53
84
68
20
2.2
7.4
65
6.9
9.4
Low
1.5
16
12
9.3
4
1.2
61
930
135
6.5
1.2
52
58
57
13
1.8
4
54
6.3
6.4
Low Nuclear
2.3
59
16
16
7
1.7
240
1,200
260
13
2
550
97
104
27
3.5
14
64
10
12
S02 = sulfur dioxide
HC = hydrocarbons NO = nitrogen oxides^.
a"Factor increases" are the predicted change in total emissions by the
year 2000 compared to 1975 emissions.
-------
HC over this time period depending on the energy demand scenario.
These increases can be largely attributed to expected levels of
coal development.1
Southern Utah is similar to the Rocky Mountain sub-area in
baseline emissions and growth in resource development. Emissions
in the Southern Utah sub-area may increase 550 times for NOX and
240 times for SC>2 in the Low Nuclear Demand scenario. The lowest
emission increases would occur in the Four Corners sub-area,
which had a large amount of development in 1975 (2,500 megawatts
of electric power generation) and which, in our scenarios, would
experience a small increase in new power facilities through the
year 2000. Based on these assumptions, this sub-area would have
the smallest emission increases for all pollutants at each level
of resource development.
2. Emission Densities
Emission density, the total emissions in an area divided by
the square miles of that area, is a second indicator of air
quality in a sub-area or state. Table 12-8 projects 1975-2000
emission densities in each resource sub-area for Stanford Research
Institute's (SRI) Low Demand, Nominal, and Low Nuclear Cases.
In the Low Demand case, emission densities of particulates,
SC>2/ NOX, and HC would increase between 1975 and 2000 in each
sub-area.^ By 2000, the highest emission densities are projected
for SC>2 (as high as 40 tpy per square mile in the Rocky Mountain
sub-area) and NOx (as high as 34 tpy per square mile in western
North Dakota). S02 emission densities would also be high (30 tpy
per square mile) in .the Four Corners area by 2000 (this area had
by far the largest 1975 emission density). The largest change
would occur in the Rocky Mountain sub-area, where SC^ density
could increase by approximately 1,000 times by the year 2000.
With the exception of Southern Utah, all sub-areas are
expected to have relatively high densities of NOk by 2000, rang-
ing from 16 tpy per square mile (Rocky Mountains) to 34 tpy
Although this area is primarily known for its oil shale
resources, it is also rich in coal deposits. Refer to the Intro-
duction to this chapter for projections of energy resource pro-
duction throughout the eight-state area.
Because Stanford Research Institute's demand projections
now appear to overestimate levels of western energy resource
development, we emphasize the Low Demand case as the most real-
istic of the three projections. For an explanation of future
modifications of these projections, see White, Irvin L., et al.
Work Plan for Completing a Technology Assessment of Western
Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
753
-------
TABLE 12-8:
EMISSION FROM ENERGY FACILITIES
(tons per year per square mile)
-j
Ul
Resource Subarea
Particulates
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
S02
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western north Dakota
NOX
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
HC
Four Corners
Southern Utah
Rocky Mountains
Powder River
Western North Dakota
1975
4.3
.05
.33
.40
1.8
24
.02
.04
.09
3.3
20
.10
.29
.43
2.6
2.5
.17
.38
.61
.65
1980
Nominal
6
.77
.33
.92
2.9
29
1.5
.04
2.6
8.4
31
5.2
.29
4.8
10
3.6
.71
.38
1.1
1.5
Low
4.3
.77
.33
.90
2.9
24
1.5
.04
2.6
8.4
20
5.2
.29
4.8
10
2.6
.66
.38
1.1
1.5
Low Nuclear
6
.77
• .33
1.4
2.9
30
1.5
.04
5.2
8.4
31
5.2
.29
9.2
10
3.6
.71
.38
1.6
1.5
1990
Nominal
6
1.5
1.2
2.6
. 5.5
30
3
7.4
11
19
31
10
6.7
17
28
3.7
1.2
3.4
2.5
3.5
Low
6
.77
.86
2
4.3
30
1.5
5.7
7.7
14
31
5.2
2.6
14
20
3.6
.71
3.3
2.1
2.6
Low Nuclear
7.7
2.2
1.1
3.1
6.5
35
4.5
6.3
13
24
41
15
6.3
21
35
4.6
1.7
2.9
3.1
4.3
2000
Nominal
6.6
1.5
5.1
4.7
10
30
3
49
15
31
34
10
24
29
52
4.2
1.2
25
4.3
6.1
Low
6.4
.77
4.1
3.7
7.1
30
1.5
40
13
22
33
5.2
16
25
34
3.9
.71
21
3.9
. 4.1
Low Nuclear
9.9
2.9
5.4
6.5
12
41
5.9
50
24
43
55
21
27
45
69
6.1
2.3
24
6.2
7.9
HC • hydrocarbons
NO* « nitrogen oxides
S02 * sulfur dioxide
-------
per square mile in Western North Dakota. As is true for SO,,,
Four Corners is the only sub-area with relatively high densities of
NOx in 1975 (20 tpy per square mile). Hence, each of the other
sub-areas can be expected to experience a large increase in NO
density by the year 2000, ranging from a 12-fold increase in x
Western North Dakota to a 64-fold increase in the Powder River
sub-area.
Neither HC nor particulates are expected to increase as
rapidly as the other pollutants or have such high total density
levels by the year 2000. The exception would be the HC density
in the Rocky Mountain sub-area, which could reach 20 tpy per
square mile by 2000. In each of the other sub-areas, HC levels
were predicted" to be relatively low in 1975 (0.17-2.5 tpy per
square mile) and are expected to remain relatively low through
the year 2000 (0.7-4.1 tpy per square mile). Similarly, particu-
late densities were relatively low in each sub-area in 1975
(0.77-7.1 tpy per square mile) and are expected to remain rela-
tively low by the year 2000 (0.72-5.3 tpy per square mile).
In summary, Four Corners had the highest 1975 emissions
density for all pollutants for all sub-areas. Projections based
on SRI's Low Demand case suggest that Southern Utah will have the
lowest densities of all pollutants by the year 2000. The Rocky
Mountain (for SO2 and HC) and Western North Dakota sub-areas (for
NO and particulates) are expected to have the highest emission
densities by the year 2000.
In the other two SRI cases, the five sub-areas generally have the
same relative ranking for each pollutant as described for the low
Demand case. In each time period, regional emission densities
generally would be higher for the Nominal than the Low Demand
case and highest for the Low Nuclear case. The Western North
Dakota and Southern Utah sub-areas would have substantially
higher emission densities in the year 2000 for the Low Nuclear
case than they do for the other two cases. This difference
results from the large growth in electrical generation facilities
for these two sub-areas for the Low Nuclear case in the year
2000 as compared to the other two cases.
C. Impacts in States
1. Emissions
Table 12-9 lists 1975 emissions levels and projected emis-
sions in 1980, 1990, and 2000 for each SRI demand case in New
Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. This
information shows that, in 1975, Wyoming had the lowest total
emissions of NO and HC, Colorado had the lowest S02, and Utah
had the lowest particulate emissions. Conversely, Montana
exhibited the highest levels of particulates, S02, and HC, while
New Mexico had the highest NOX emissions. In comparison with
755
-------
TABLE 12-9:
PROJECTED EMISSIONS IN SIX WESTERN STATESa
(thousands of tons per year)
State
New Mexico
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
Colorado
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
Utah
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
Montana
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
Wyoming
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
North Dakota
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide-
Hydrocarbon
1975
113
490
220
168
222
54.2
163
213
79
168
89
108
301
960
164
300
83.1
76.5
80
61
87.1
86.6
94.5
77.5
1980
Nominal
123
526
279
188
222
54.2
163
213
85.5
182
136
113
318
1,050
281
312
87.2
96.5
130
67.2
106
172
226
92.2
Low
114
495
220
182
222
54.2
163
214
85.4
181
136
113
309
1,000
223
306
87
96.4
129.6
66.6
106
172
226
92.2
Low Nuclear
127
523
279
187
221
54.3
163
214
85.5
182
136
113
318
1,050
281
313
90.9
116
179
71.9
106
172
226
92.3
1990
Nominal
123
526
280
188
231
135
232
247
92
195
183
118
347
179
470
335
91
116
181
75.6
148
347
508
124
. Low
123
526
279
188
228
115
188
245
85
181
136
113
327
.1,090
342
321
95
136
229
78.5
129
262
377
109
Low Nuclear
132
557
337
197
230
123
228
241
98
208
229
133
356
1,220
430
343
95.3
136
231
80.2
164
430
630
138
2000
Nominal
126
529
299
192
269
536
396
452
96.6
243
203
143
375
1,260
658
361
110
152
307
93
223-
539
909
168
Low
125
526
292
185
259
445
322
413
88.9
218
151
132
361
1,200
557
350
105
148
289
82.6
175
297
616
135
Low Nuclear
144
588
414
200
271
543
436
422
110
271
296
153
415
1,430
902
387
119
207
440
106
263
741
1,200
198
-J
U1
These data are based on projected emissions in each of the site-specific scenarios, (Chapters 6-11) scaled to energy
demands postulated in the Stanford Research Institute's models.
-------
TABLE 12-10:
EMISSIONS IN SELECTED STATES IN 1972a
(thousands of tons per year)
State
Ohio
California
Georgia
Washington
Texas
Iowa
Particulates
1,947
1,110
446
179
606
239
so2
3,290
434
521
301
830
312
NOX
1,210
1,830
408
207
1,440
267
HC
1,272
2,380
505
380
2,450
349
HC = hydrocarbons
NOX = nitrogen oxide
S02 = sulfur dioxide
^r.S., Environmental Protection Agency. National
Emissions Report, EN-226. Research Triangle Park,
N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1974,
total emissions in selected states outside the region, these
levels are relatively low (Table 12-10) . For example, 1975 par-
ticulate levels in the six states listed in Table 12-9 ranged
from 79,000 to 301,000 tons, which can be compared with 1972
levels measured in Iowa (239,000 tons), California (1,100,000
tons), and Ohio (1,947,000 tons). Similarly, 1975 emissions of
S02, NOx, and HC in most of the six western states were generally
lower than 1972 emissions found in low or moderately industrial-
ized states, such as Iowa or Georgia, and much lower than those
found in highly industrialized states such as Ohio or Cali-
fornia .1
On a state-by-state basis, the increases in emissions for
the study area states listed in Table 12-9 follow the same
general trends found in the resource sub-areas. In the Low
Demand case, Montana is projected to have the highest emissions
of particulates and S02 by the year 2000, while North Dakota and
Colorado are projected to have the highest NOX and HC emissions,
respectively. In the six states listed, NOx emissions generally
would increase the most, ranging from 151,000 to 616,000 tons
in 2000 as compared with 80,000 to 220,000 tons in 1975. S02
emissions are also expected to show large increases by 2000,
while particulate emissions are expected to be only slightly
higher than 1975 levels.
This finding is stated for purposes of comparison only.
We do not intend to imply that the degradation that would be
experienced would be either acceptable or unacceptable.
757
-------
Table 12-11 shows projected S02 emissions for these same
six states under the assumption that no scrubbers would be used
on western power plants.-'- For the Low Demand ease, total SC>2
emissions by 2000 (294,000-2,060,000 tons) are expected to be
well below 1972 SO2 emissions in Ohio (3,290,000 tons). However,
Ohio S02 emissions were by far the highest for the states listed
in Table 12-10. Only in the Low Nuclear case do projected S02
emissions in 2000 for two states, Montana and North Dakota,
approach 1972 levels in Ohio.
2. Emission Densities
Table 12-12 shows 1975 projected emission densities in six
western states for SRI's three demand cases. In general,
increases in emissions densities from 1975 to 2000 can be
expected to follow the same trends as found in the resource sub-
areas, although densities would be much lower because of the
larger area being considered. In the Low Demand case, the high-
est densities by the year 2000 generally would be SO2/ which
would range from 1.5 tpy per square mile in Wyoming to 8.2 tpy
per square mile in Montana. An exception to this would be the
NO density in North Dakota in 2000 (8.7 tpy per square mile).
For every state except Colorado, particulate and HC densities by
2000 are expected to be lower than SO2 and NOx densities. The
lowest emissions densities in 2000 are expected to occur in New
Mexico (particulates and NO^) and Wyoming^ (862 and HC) .
Increases in emission densities from 1975 levels are not
expected to be large, compared to those found for the resource
sub-areas. For example, SO2 densities would increase 8-92 per-
cent in New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, and Montana. Larger increases
would occur in North Dakota (225 percent) and Colorado (over 700
percent). These increases can be compared to SO2 density
increases of 1,000 times in the Rocky Mountain sub-area (a
100,000-percent increase).
Table 12-13 shows projected S02 increases in emission den-
sities in these same six states if scrubbers are not used on
power plants. For the Low Demand case, not using scrubbers would
have only a slight effect on SO2 densities in New Mexico, Colo-
rado, and Utah in 2000. (in Colorado these densities would be the
same as those projected for 2000 if scrubbers are used.) In
New Mexico and Utah, the densities are expected to increase by
23 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Not using scrubbers
would have a greater impact in Montana, Wyoming, and North
Dakota; SO2 densities would increase to 14 tpy per square mile in
Montana and to 20 tpy per square mile in North Dakota. Compared
Power plants in New Mexico, Montana, and North Dakota will
exceed federal New Source Performance Standards for SO- emissions
under this assumption. See Chapters 7, 10, and 11 of this report.
758
-------
TABLE 12-11:
PROJECTED SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS WITHOUT SCRUBBERS
(thousands of tons per year)
Scenario
State
Sew Mexico
Colorado
Utah
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
1975
490
54
168
960
77
87
19S(
Nominal
645
54
257
1,390
176
512
Low
496
54
257
1.180
175
512
Low Nuclear
645
54
257
1.390
274
512
1990
Nominal
646
207
346
2,040
275
1.370
Low
645
115
257
1,600
373
942
Low Nuclear
797
195
435
2,250
374
1.790
2000
Nominal
649
607
398
2.300
389
2.070
Low
646
44S
294
2,060
365
1,400
Low Nuclear
948
687
528
3,150
661
3,120
TABLE 12-12
PROJECTED EMISSIONS DENSITIES IN SIX WESTERN STATES
(tons per year per square mile)
State
New Mexico
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbons
Colorado
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbons
Utah
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon s
Montane
particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbons
Wyoming
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbons
North Dakota
Particulate
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Hydrocarbon
1975
.93
4
i.e
1.4
2^
. i
.52
1.6
2.1
.93
2
1.1
1.3
2
6.5
1.1
2
.65
.78
.62
.62
1.23
1.23
J..34
1.10
Nominal
1
4.3
2.3
1.5
21
• i,
.52
1.6
2.1
1
2.1
1.6
1.3
2.2
7.1
1.9
2.1
.89
.93
1.3
.69
1.5
2.4
3.2
1.3
1980
Low
.93
4.1
1.8'
1-5 ,
21
. J.
• .52
1.6-
2.1
1
2.1
1.6
1.3
2.1
6.8
1.5
2.1
.89
.98
1.3
.68
1.5
2.4
3.2
1.3
Low Nuclear
1
4.3
2.3
1.5
21
• i
.52
1.6
2.1
1
2.1
1.6
1.3
2.2
7.1
1.9
2.1
.93
1.2
1.8
.73
1.5
2.4
3.2
1.3
Nominal
1
4.3
2.3
1.5
2*y
• *
1.3
2.2
2.4
1.1
2.3
2.2
1.4
2.4
8
3.2
2.3
.93
1.2
1.9
.76
2.1
4.9
7.2
1.8
199
LOW
1
4.3
2.3
1.6
2 2
i!i
l.S
2.4
1
2.1
1.6
1.3
2.2
7.4
2.3
2.2
.97
1.4
2.3
.80
1.8
3.7
5.3
1.6
)
Low Nuclear
1.1
4.6
2.8
1.6
20
• £
1.2
2'.2
2.3
1.2
2.5
2,7
1.6
2.4
B.3
3.6
2.3
.97
1.4
2.4
.82
2.3
6.1
8.9
2
Nominal
1
4.4
2.5
1.6
2 A
• O
5.2
3.8
4.3
1.1
2.9
2.4,
1.7
2.6
8.6
4.5
2.3
1.1
1.5
3.1
.95
3.2
7.6
12
2.4
200C
LOW
1
4.3
2.4
l.S
2C
• >
4.3
3.1
4
1.1
2.6
2.6
1.6
2.5
8.2
3.8
2.4
1.1
1.5
3
.64
2.5
4
8.7
1.9
Low Nuclear
1.2
4.8
3.4
1.7
2 6
5^2
4.2
4.3
1.3
3.2 -
3.5
1.8
2.8
9.7
6.1
2.6
1.2
2.1
4.5
1.1
3.7
10
16
2.8
TABLE 12-13:
PROJECTED SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION DENSITIES
WITHOUT SCRUBBERS
(tons per year per square mile)
Year Scenario
State
New Mexico
Colorado
Utah
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
1975
4
.52
2
6.5
.78
1.2
1930
Nominal
5.3
.52
3
9.5
1.8
7.2
LOW
4.1
.52
3
8
1.8
7.2
Low Nuclear
5.3
.52
3
9.5
2.6
7.2
1990
Nominal
5.3
2
4.1
14
2.8
19.
Low
5.3
1.1
3
11
3.8
13.
Low Nuclear
6.6
1.9
5.1
15
3.8
25.
2000
Nominal
5.3
5.8
4.7
15
4.0
29.
Low
5.3
4.3
3.5
14.
4.0
20.
Low Nuclear
7.8
6.6
6.7
21
7.0
44.
759
-------
to S0? densities in 2000 if scrubbers are used, the largest
percentage-increases would occur in Wyoming (167 percent) and North
Dakota (400 percent).
12.2.4 inadvertent Weather Modification
Very little data exist on the effects of energy develop-
ments on local or regional weather patterns. In areas where
information is available, little agreement exists about the
extent of potential problems. However, several categories of
potential impacts have been identified; increased precipitation
and cloud growth, fogging and icing, reduced visibility, tur-
bidity, salt deposition, and acid rainfall. Occurrence of these
phenomena throughout the eight-state study area will depend on
the meteorology and climatology of the region, the size of energy
facilities, the spacing and height of effluent stacks, and
methods of heat dissipation.
A. Fogging and Icing
Properly designed and maintained cooling towers are expected
to have negligible effects on1 local fogging and icing conditions.
However, others claim that both cooling towers and ponds contri-
bute to local climate. These impacts appear most likely to occur
during high relative humidities during winter.
Cooling ponds have been found to produce frequent fogging
conditions, which are normally restricted to an area relatively
close to the pond.^ Cooling towers produce less frequent fogs,
but when they do, they usually affect a much larger area.
Cooling towers and ponds can also contribute to icing, nor-
mally between late November and early April in most of the areas
where energy resource development will take place. Icing build- '
up rates in the Four Corners area range from 0.2 to 13 milli-
meters per hour, averaging 1.54 millimeters per hour.3 icing
build-up generally does not occur when the temperature is above
24OF.4 plumes can also contribute to road icing.
Spurr, G. "Meteorology and Cooling Tower Operation."
Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 8 (April 1974), pp. 321-24.
2
Currier, Edwin L., Joseph B. Knox, and Todd V. Crawford.
"Cooling Pond Steam Fog." Journal of the Air Pollution Control
Association, Vol. 24 (September 1974), pp. 860-64.
3Ibid.
4
Martin, A., and F.R. Barber. "Measurements of Precipita-
tion Downwind of Cooling Towers." Atmospheric Environment. Vol 8
(April 1974), pp. 373-81. ~~ T~
760
-------
B. Precipitation
Energy development may also change precipitation patterns
downwind of large facilities. However, considerable uncertainty
exists about what changes will occur. Some information suggests
that power plant emissions do not affect total rainfall levels1
and that development of "heat islands" around developments cause
overseeding of clouds which leads to decreased total precipita-
tion. ^ However, other information suggests that large power
parks can form cumulus clouds to heights over 5 miles, which
could be accompanied by an inflow of local surface air, thunder-
storms, and small tornadoes.3
In general, three characteristics of energy facilities have
been related to weather modification:
1. Particulate loading, from either stack effluents or
wind erosion from strip mines, may either increase
or decrease precipitation depending on the size,
distribution, and concentration of the particles.
Particulate loading may also increase atmospheric
turbidity, leading to decreased visibility and
decreased sunlight intensity, which may in turn
decrease afternoon showers.^
2. Heat islands from plants generally increase cloud
growth, depending on the size of the plant and
how high the plumes rise from the stacks. Cloud
growth may increase precipitation unless over-
seeding occurs.
3. Moisture from cooling towers and ponds is likely
to increase precipitation downwind of power
plants.
Martin, A., and F.R. Barber. "Measurements of Precipita-
tion Downwind of Cooling Towers." Atmospheric Environment, Vol 8
(April 1974), pp. 373-81.
o
Bryson, Reid A. Climatic Modification by Air Pollution,
Report #1. Madison, Wis.: University of Wisconsin, Institute of
Environmental Studies, 1972.
Hanna, Steven R., and Franklin A. Gifford. "Meteorological
Effects of Energy Dissipation at Large Power Parks. " Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, Vol. 56 (October 1975), 1069-75.
4
The relationship between turbidity and solar radiation
intensity has been disputed. See Pueschel, Rudolf F., Charles J.
Garcia, and Richard T. Hansen. "Solar Radiation: Effects of
Atmospheric Water Vapor and Volcanic Aerosols." Journal of
Applied Meteorology, Vol. 13 (April 1974), pp. 397-401.
761
-------
12.2.5 Summary
Emissions and emission density levels have been calculated
for resource sub-areas and for six of the eight states in the
study area. Calculations have been made from the present to the
year 2000 for SRI's Low Demand, Nominal, and Low Nuclear dases.
Estimates fo air impacts in this section emphasize the Low Demand
ca.se because it appears to be a more realistic estimate of future
energy development levels.
The Rocky Mountain sub-area is expected to experience the
highest emission increases among the five sub-areas examined.
Emissions in this area are projected to increase as much as 1,200
times for S02, 97 times for NOX, and 65 times for HC by the year
2000. The density of SO2 emissions are also expected to be
highest in the Rocky Mountain sub-area, reaching 40 tpy per
square mile by 2000. The Southern Utah sub-area should have the
lowest densities of all pollutants by the year 2000.
On a state-by-state basis, both SO2 and NOx will have large
emission increases by 2000. The largest S02 emissions are pro-
jected for Montana and the largest NOX emissions for North
Dakota. Particulates are expected to increase only slightly
over 1975 levels.
Air impacts will be more serious if scrubbers are not used
on western power plants. The most affected state would be
Montana, where over 2 million tpy of SO2 would be generated by
2000. Utah would have the lowest total emissions (294,000 tons)
of the six states by the year 2000. Emissions of S02 would also
increase substantially in North Dakota. Although total emis-
sions (1.4 million/tons) would be less than for Montana, North
Dakota's rate of increase would be much faster (about a 16-fold
increase compared to Montana's two-fold increase). Utah would
have the lowest total emissions (294,000 tons) of the six states
by the year 2000.
Urban pollution in Denver may increase as a result of the
long-range transport of pollutants from the Powder River and Four-
Corners areas. Assessing the likelihood of this impact is diffi-
cult due to potential cleansing of air over long distances and
the effects of the mountainous terrain.
Changes in precipitation due to weather modification caused
by energy facilities may occur, particularly if several facili-
ties are sited close together. However, more research is needed
to reach reliable conclusions about this impact.
762
-------
12.3 WATER IMPACTS
Water impacts have been evaluated for the Upper Colorado
and Upper Missouri River Basins. Impacts in these basins are
estimated for the three levels of development and time frames
described in the Introduction to Part II and in Section 12.1.
12.3.1 Upper Colorado River Basin
The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) includes parts of
Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. It can be
divided into three subregions associated with the Green River,
the Upper Main Stem of the Colorado River, and the San Juan
River as shown in Figure 12-1.
A. Existing Conditions
1. Surface Water
The impacts resulting from the consumption of the water
required for energy development in the UCRB are largely deter-
mined by the quantity of surface water available in the basin.
Estimates of the magnitude of this supply depend on interpreta-
tions of the Colorado River Compact-'- and the methods estimators
used. The three most commonly cited estimates are:
1. The Department of the Interior's Water for Energy
Management Team^ estimates that at least 5.8
million acre-feet-per year (acre-ft/yr) are
available for consumptive use in the UCRB.
Their estimate is ba^ed on releasing 8.25
million acre-ft/yr to the Lower Basin and
allowing for shortages to irrigation users
during subnormal years.
2. Water Supplies of the Colorado River, 1965-^ was a
consultants study for the Upper Colorado River
Commission which determined that 6.3 million
Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat.
1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.
3000 (1928).
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974.
Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc. Water Supplies of the Colorado
River. in U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on
Interior and Insular Affairs. Lower Colorado River Basin Pro-
ject. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Irrigation and Recla-
mation, 89th Cong., 1st sess., 1965, p. 467.
763
-------
WYOMING
COLORADO
ARIZONA
NEW MEXICO
FIGURE 12-1: UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
764
-------
acre-ft/yr would be available for consumptive-
use if 7.5 million acre-ft/yr were delivered
to the Lower Basin and Upper Basin users did
not have to experience any shortages.
3. The Lake Powell Research Project estimated
that 5.25 million acre-ft/yr are available for
consumptive use if 8.25 million acre-ft/yr
are delivered to the Lower Basin. ^
In our analysis, 5.8 million acre-ft/yr was used, although
for impacts which are particularly dependent on flow rate, the
effects of using one of the other values are noted.
Estimates of the quantities of water currently being con-
sumed in the UCRB also vary, primarily because of the inconsis-
tent depletion categories used by various studies. Table 12-14
gives values for 1974 depletions totaling 3.707 million acre-ft/
yr;2 using different assumptions, another study estimated 1975
depletions to be 3.181 million acre-ft/yr.^
Irrigation of agriculture accounted for 58 percent of the
1974 depletion. Interbasin transfers, the largest of which was
to the Denver area, consumed 20 percent, and evaporation losses
accounted for 14 percent. Other uses were negligible compared
to these.
Water quality in the UCRB has been studied extensively. The
principal water quality problem is salinity. The average annual
salt flow at Lee Ferry has been estimated at 8.6 million tons,
of which 4.3 million tons are from natural sources, 1.5 million
Weatherford, Gary D., and Gordon C. Jacoby. "Impact of
Energy Development on the Law of the Colorado River." Natural
Resources Journal, Vol. 15 (January 1975), pp. 171-213.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report/ on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin. Denver, C616: Department of'the Interior, 1974, p. 13.
U.S., Department of the interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975.
765
-------
TABLE 12-14: ESTIMATED 1974 DEPLETIONS
(thousands of acre-feet per year)
Thermal power plants
Food and fiber
(irrigation)
Fish, wildlife, and
recreation*3
Minerals and mining
Livestock ponds and
evaporation
Municipal and
industrial
Exports
Subtotal
Main stem reservoir
losses
Total depletion
Arizona
a
10
3
13
0
13
Colorado
9
1,255
31
17
21
18
504
1,855
269
2,124
Utah
1
529
24
9
6
6
130
705
120
825
Wyoming
3
258
16
18
2 1C
3
10
329
73
402
New Mexico
25
102
6
4
3ld
8
110
286
58
344
Total
38
2,153
30
48
79
35
754
3,137
520
3,657
Depletion
1.0
58.1
2.1
1.3
2.1
1.0
20.3
14.0
CTi
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Management Team. Report on Water
For Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of' the Interior,
1974, p. 130.
aFirst unit of Navajo Power Plant went on line in May of 1974. Actual depletion amount' not
available.
Natural historic wildlife consumption not included.
°Includes evaporation from Fontenelle Reservoir.
Includes evaporation from Navajo Reservoir.
-------
tons from agricultural uses, and 2.8 million tons from other
manmade sources . 1 A detailed description of the natural sources of
salinity is included in several reports. 2 According to the clas-
sification system used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ,
water with a salt or total dissolved solids (TDS) content of up
to 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/£) is considered fresh. The
EPA interim Primary Drinking Water Standard has no TDS limit;3
however, the EPA proposed secondary standard recommends that TDS
be limited to 500 mg/£4. For livestock, water is rated good up
to a TDS of 2,500
The more saline the water, the less desirable it is for
agricultural purposes as well as for drinking. Concentrations of
TDS at various points in the UCRB are shown in Table 12-15. All
the streams are fresh according to the USGS classification system,
except for the San Rafael River which flows through extensive
salt and potash deposits in Utah.
The allocation of water rights and the legal/political prob-
lems surrounding them will be important in determining whether
a portion of the unused water in the UCRB can be used for energy
developments. (These problems and associated issues are discussed
in Chapter 14.)
Hyatt, M. Leon, et al. Computer Simulation of the Hydro-
logic-Salinity Flow System Within the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water Research Labora-
tory, 1970. Other studies differ in their breakdown of sources
but appear to agree on total load in the river.
2
Williams, J. Stewart. The Natural Salinity of the Colorado
River,. Occasional Paper 7. Logan, Utah: Utah State University,
Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975; and U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Water Quality Office. Quality
of Water—Colorado River Basin, Progress Report No. 7. Denver,
Colo.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1975.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim
Primary Drinking Water Regulations." 40 Fed. Reg. 59,566-88
(December 24, 1975).
4
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary
Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg.
17,143-47 (March 31, 1977).
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparo-
wits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land
Management, 1976, p. 11-152.
767
-------
TABLE 12-15:
AVERAGE DISSOLVED SOLIDS CONCENTRATIONS IN
STREAMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO REGION,
1941-1972
Station Location
Green River Subregion
Green River at Green River, Wyoming
Green River near Greendale, Utah
Green River at Green River, Utah
Duchesne River near Randlett, Utah
San Rafael River near Green River, Utah
Upper Main Stern Subregion
Colorado River near Glenwood Springs, Colorado
Colorado River near Cameo, Colorado
Colorado River near Cisco, Utah
Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado
San Juan-Colorado Subregion
San Juan River near Archuleta, New Mexico
San Juan River near Bluff, Utah
Upper Colorado Region Outlet
Colorado River at Lee Ferry, Arizona
Total
Dissolved
Solids :
-------
The Mexican Water Treaty of 1944.guarantees Mexico 1.5
million acre-ft/yr from the Colorado River1 but does not specify
whether this amount should come equally from the Upper and" Lower
Basin apportionments or all from the Lower Basin. In addition,
an agreement with Mexico in 19732 and the Colorado River Basin
Salinity Control Act of 1974-3 address salinity problems in the
basin.
Water quality standards for the Colorado River have been set
by the states of the basin at 723 mg/£ below Hoover Dam, 747 mg/£
below Parker Dam, and 879 mg/5, at Imperial Dam. 4
2. Groundwater
Large quantities of groundwater are present in the UCRB.
Although its distribution and quality is largely a function of
geology and topography, UCRB groundwater is generally more evenly
distributed than surface water and has a higher TDS. The most
important groundwater aquifers are in sedimentary bedrock and in
the alluvium of sand and gravel along rivers and streams. An
estimated 115 million acre-ft/yr of water is stored in these
aquifers at a depth of less than 100 feet,5 with substantially
greater quantities in deeper reservoirs. This quantity is almost
four times the storage capacity of all surface water reservoirs
in the basin. The rate of recharge is about 4 million acre-ft/
yr, but because many groundwater aquifers are isolated, the rate
of withdrawal locally without mining must be determined from local
Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico
Respecting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana
Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219
(1945), Treaty Series No. 994.
2
International Boundary and Water Commission. "Permanent
and Definitive Solution to the International Problem of the
Salinity of the Colorado River," Minute No. 242. Department of
State Bulletin, Vol. 69 (September 24, 1973), pp. 395-96.
Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub. L.
No. 93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43 U.S.C.A. §§1571 et seq.
(Supp. 1976).
4Fed. Reg. 13,656-57 (March 31, 1976). Colorado agreed to
the standards at a later date.
Price, Don, and Ted Arnow. Summary Appraisals of the
Nation's Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado Region, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional/Paper 813-C. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
769
-------
recharge rates. Wells capable of yielding as much as 1,000 -^
gallons per minute (gpm) can be drilled in much of the basin.
Flow into groundwater aquifers usually takes place at high ,
elevations where precipitation and flow in surface streams is
greatest and where the layers of rock making up the aquifer crop
out at the surface. Discharge from the aquifers occurs at lower
elevations in springs, seeps, and back into surface streams.
Because of the slow movement of water in the aquifer, its behav-
ior is much like that of a surface impoundment. With a contin-
uous discharge, this can be beneficial to maintaining flow in
surface streams during periods of normal low flow.
Water quality in aquifers in the UCRB varies widely but in
general is a function of the mineral composition of the aquifer
and the length of time the water has been stored there. Thus,
water close to the recharge area (at higher elevations) has the
best quality, and quality decreases at lower elevations. Water
in aquifers above 7,000 feet elevation generally has a TDS of
less than 1,000 mg/X2 (This is fresh water according to the
USGS classification system.)
About 133,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater are currently used
in the UCRB.3 In the basin, this is 2 percent of the total water
used^ and about 3 percent of the annual recharge rate for ground-
water. Groundwater use is primarily limited by inadequate know-
ledge of where it is located and what its quality is. Use is
also limited because the slow movement of water in aquifers
requires a large number of wells over a wide area to withdraw
substantial amounts in relatively short periods. (If a suffi*-
ciently large groundwater aquifer could be found, 25 wells would
be required, each producing 1,000 gpm, to supply water to a
3,000-megawatt electrical power plant.) Obtaining rights to
groundwater is also difficult because use is generally
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. i
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Of fice, 1975, p. 35.
2Price, Don, and Ted Arnow. Summary Appraisals of the
Nation's Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado Region, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 813-C. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
U.S., Department of the Interior. Westwide Study.
Price and Arnow. Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado
Region.
770
-------
administered locally rather than on a statewide or regional basis.
This situation is changing as demand for water increases. (See
Section 14.2)
B. Water Requirements
The water requirements for energy development in the UCRB
have been calculated for the three levels of energy development
postulated in Section 12.I.1 These requirements are shown in
Table 12-16. Requirements will vary with the technologies used.
If water minimization techniques are employed for all uses except
cooling, regional consumption for the year 2000 could be reduced
by between 18 and 22 percent, or between 162,000 and 185,000
acre-ft/yr^ depending on the level of development. Using wet-dry
or dry cooling could reduce these requirements even further but
at a higher economic cost.3
Water requirements resulting from the increases in popula-
tion associated with the three levels of development have been
projected and are shown in Table 12-17. Assuming a daily con-
sumption of 150 gallons per person, these water requirements will
be less than 56,000 acre-ft/yr. This is approximately the amount
of water required for two steam-electrical power plants. Thus,
population water requirements will be small compared to those for
the facilities themselves, and will remain small, even if the
per-capita consumption doubles from the 150 gallons assumed.
Total water requirements for the UCRB in the year 2000 for
the three^levels of development assumed in Section 12.1 are: Low
Demand case., 798,000 acre-ft/yr; Nominal Demand case , 1,015,900
acre-ft/yr; and Low Nuclear Availability case, 1,093,600 acre-
ft/yr.
The location of the water demand is of some importance in the
evaluation of the effects of demand on the water system. In this
report, the regional demands are not addressed with respect to a
specific sitie but rather with respect to the basin as a whole.
i
2
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-
Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western
United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma, Science
and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
The water consumption and economic consequences of cooling
alternatives will be evaluated during the remainder of this
study'. Cursory examination of the data indicates that dry
cooling systems would cost 1.28 times as much as wet-dry systems,
and 2.20 times as much as wet-dry systems. See, for example,
Heller, Lazlo. "Heller.Discusses Hybrid Wet/Dry Cooling." Elec-
trical World. Vol. 179 (March 15, 1973), pp. 74-77.
771
-------
TABLE 12-16:
PROJECTED WATER DEMAND UPON THE UPPER COLORADO
RIVER BASIN FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT3
•
Energy Type
Coal Mines
Slurry Pipelines
Gasification
Liquefaction
Power Plants
Oil Shale
Uranium
Total
Water Requirements
(acre-feet per year)
Low Demand
1980
1,612
0
0
0
58.800
0
13,599
74,011
1990
2,108
18,390
0
0
88,200
83,250
30,220
222,168
2000
2,852
18,390
9,086
0
88,200
582,750
52 ,'885
754,163
Nominal Demand
1980
1,860
0
0
0
88,200
0
15,110
105,170
1990
2,728
18,390
0
0
147,000
83,250
39,286
290,654
2000
3,968
18,390
18,172
0
147,000
699,300
72,528
959,358
Low Nuclear Availability
1980
•1,984
0
0
0
88,200
0
4,533
94,717
1990
3,472
18,390
0
0
205,800
66,600
1,511
295,773
2000
5,580
36.780
18,172
0
294,000
682,650
1,511
1,038,693
Taken from Section 12.1, SRI Model regional demand predictions, and from the Energy Resource Development
System -Descriptions, assuming that the following facility water requirements hold:
Facility
Coal Mine
Slurry Pipeline
Coal Gasification
Coal Liquefaction
Power Plant
Oil Shale Retort
Uranium Mill
Assumed Size Load Factor
5 million tons per year 100%
25 million tons per year 100%
250 million cubic feet per day 90%
100,000 barrels per day 9054
3,000 megawatts-electric 70%
100,000 barrels per day 90%
5,000 tons per year 100%
Water Requirements
(acre-feet per year)
124
18,390
9,086
17,460
29:400
16,650
1,511
TABLE 12-17:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR POPULATION INCREASES
IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASINa'b
(acre-feet per year)
Colorado
Hew Mexico
Utah
Total
Low Demand
1980
600
1,950 .
380
2.930
1985
3,750
3,600
450
7,800
1990
6,600
3,300
450
10,350
2000
34,900
5,900
3,750
44,550
Nominal Demand-
1980
300
2,600
1,050
3,950
1985'
4,870
4,870
1,870
11,610
1990
7,650
4,500
2,100
14,250
2000
41,900
8,950
6,600
57,450
Low Nuclear Availability
1980
900
2,010
750
3,660
1985
5,470
3,500
1,950
10,920
1990
7,450
2,350
2,550
12.350
2000
42.500
3.970
8,400
54.870
Vbova the water consumed In 1975.
A**uming 150 gallon* per capita per day and using population inoreaie eatiraatea from Section 12.4 for the
Stanford Reaearch Institute nodal caeei dUcuised in Settion 12.1.
772
-------
C. Water-Related Impacts of Energy Development in the UCRB
1. Surface Water
The most obvious impact of energy development in the UCRB
will be the withdrawal of water to supply the energy conversion
facilities. As noted above, basinwide water requirements for the
three levels of development would range from 799,000 to 1,094,000
acre-ft/yr by 2000. Using 1974 depletion levels, and assuming
the Water for Energy Management Team's estimate of 5.8 million
acre-ft/yr available to the Upper Basin is correct, the Upper
Basin states are entitled to approximately 2.1 million acre-ft/yr
of surface water which is not now being used in the Upper Basin.
The energy developments postulated in our scenarios would require
between 38 and 71 percent of this water.•*• In addition, water
will be required for secondary industrial and agricultural uses
occurring as a direct result of the energy developments, as well
as growth occurring independent of energy development.
Depending on how the demands for water are divided among the
rivers in the UCRB and how reservoirs are used to regulate flow,
flow depletion could become a problem as a result of energy
withdrawals. Table 12-18 shows requirements disaggregated to
various river basins for the year 2000. In all cases, the total
energy-related demand is well below the average flow. However,
the demands are a large fraction of typical low flows and equal
or exceed record low flows. These water requirements and the
resulting flow reductions which could occur during low flow
periods could impact several threatened fish and waterfowl
species. (These impacts are discussed in Section 12.5.2.)
The water requirements for energy development described
above will also affect water quality. Unless desalinization is
carried out, current TDS values should increase significantly as
a result of development in the UCRB. Even assuming no return
flows from energy facilities, salt concentration will increase
because of the withdrawal of diluting water upstream of the
principal sources of salt loadings. For example, increases of
2 mg/£ were expected at Imperial Dam as a result of the Kaiparowits
project alone.2 If desalinization projects are not carried out,
increases in salinity at Imperial Dam are projected to increase
To deal with water availability problems, both interbasin
transfers and weather modification have been proposed as ways of
augmenting present supplies. See Section 14.2 on Water Policy.
2
-U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment . Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976, p. III-157.
773
-------
TABLE 12-18: INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND VERSUS SUPPLY FOR SELECTED RIVER BASINS'
Subarea
Four Corners
West Colorado
East Utah
Nominal Demand
fdr Sub-area
(Year 2000) b
64a008 acre-ft/yr
(88 cfs)
647,256 acre-ft/yr
(894 cfs)
66,868 acre-ft/yr
(92 cfs)
66,600 acre-ft/yr
(92 cfs)
Major Surface
Water Source
San Juan River
at Farmington
San Juan River
at Ship rock
Colorado River
near Cameo
White River
near Meeker
Green River
near Jensen
Average
Flow
1,810,000 acre-ft/yr
2,500 cfs
1,664,000 acre-ft/yr
2,300 cfs
2,821,000 acra-ft/yr
3,900 cfs
455,400 acre-ft/yr
630 cfs
3,106,000 acre-ft/yr
4,290 cfs
Low Flow
of Record
14 cfs
8 cfs
700 cfs
112 cfs
102 cfs
Q
Minimum Flow
100-300 cfs
40-200 cfs
800-1300 cfs
170-210 cfs
250-800 cfs
cfs = cubic feet per second
aData from U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Surface Water Supply of the U.S.,
1961-65. Part 9, Colorado River Basin. Vols. 1 and 2, Water Supply Papers 1924 and 1925. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1970; and U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.
Surface Water Supply of the U.S., 1966-70, Part 6, Missouri River Basin, Vol. 1, Water Supply
Paper 2116. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974.
Demand assuming the Nominal SRI Case for the year 2000 (see Section 12.1); water requirements for
the technologies from the Energy Resource Development System Descriptions and attributed to the
nearest surface water supply to the resource location.
The range represents the minimum flows that occurred during 1961-1965.
-------
from the present level of 879 mg/5, to as high as 1,250 mg/£ in
the the year 2000. A This will be in violation of the limit established
by the states under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act? hence,
additional salinity control measures, such as those authorized by the
Salinity Control Act of 1974, 2 will be required. The economic costs of
damages due to increases in salinity at Imperial Dam have been
estimated at $230,000 per mg/5, of TDS increase,3 primarily
because of decreased crop production from lands irrigated with
this water. Control of salt loadings through irrigation manage-
ment and other on-farm measures has been estimated at between
$7,000 and $750,000 per mg/£, and desalinization plants would
cost between $100,000 and $4,000,000 per mg/£ at Imperial Dam.4
Although the most severe water-related impacts in the UCRB
will be due to water availability and increases in salinity, a
number of additional impacts will also be important. Most of
these impacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters, and
those chapters should be read for specific details. Problems and
issues resulting from these impacts are discussed in Section 14.2.
Many small western communities will experience municipal
and industrial water supply problems. Since many municipal sup-
plies are drawn from groundwater sources, these problems will be
closely related to groundwater usage and quality.
Municipal and industrial wastewater treatment facilities
may become overloaded in areas of rapid population growth,
resulting in discharges of inadequately treated or untreated
waste. Packaged plants, aerated ponds, and other expedient
wastewater treatment methods can be used but at increased cost to
the municipality (see Section 14.7).
Currently, in-stream water needs to support fish and wild-
life are receiving attention by the Fish and Wildlife Service,
and these needs will affect water availability. (The impacts of
Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, Executive
Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission
on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research Laboratory, •
1975, p.26.
2
.Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub.L.
No. 93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43..U.S.C.A. §§ 1571
et seq. (Supp. 1976).
Utah Water Research Laboratory. Colorado River Regional
Assessment Study, p. 2.
Ibid, p. 5.
775
-------
inadequate in-stream flow on ecology are discussed in Section
12.5.)
Because some of the areas of most interest for energy devel-
opment have been sparsely populated, few hydrologic data have
been collected for those areas. These data are needed to permit
planning for growth in water demands, and the USGS and state
agencies are attempting to collect this data.
The discharge of effluents from energy facilities will have
an effect on the quality of surface water. The extent of impacts
will depend on the quantity of effluents, the methods used for
disposal, and the composition of effluents. Some form of lined
holding ponds will be necessary to protect the quality of adja-
cent surface and groundwaters; however, pond design experience
is generally not available in this region and thus pond failures
and resultant pollutant migration are likely.
2. Groundwater
The quantity and quality of groundwater in the UCRB should
decrease as a consequence of energy development. Both impacts
will result from withdrawals from and additions to water in aqui-
fer systems.
A. Groundwater Quantity Impacts
Groundwater withdrawals from aquifer systems are expected to
increase significantly as a consequence of levels of energy
resource development called for in our eight-state area scenario.
Most of these withdrawals will be to meet either facility or
population needs, but some withdrawals may also be necessary to
dewater mines. Groundwater sources may be an important supple-
ment to surface-water supplies for meeting the requirements of
energy conversion facilities, but most groundwater will be used
for supplying municipal and rural population needs. Groundwater
is especially attractive as a water source for domestic supplies
in a water-short area like the UCRB. At present, about 31,000
acre-ft/yr are withdrawn for municipal supplies and about 14,000
acre-ft/yr are used for domestic supplies in rural areas.2
About 4,000 acre-ft/yr are currently used for cooling in power
plants.
See Smith, E.S. "Tailings Disposal—Failures and Lessons,"
in Aplie, C.L., and G.O. Argall, eds. Tailing Disposal Today.
San Francisco, Calif.: Miller Freeman, 1973, p. 358.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, p. 51.
776
-------
Large-scale groundwater withdrawals could lead to both local
and regional lowering of the water levels in aquifers in the
immediate vicinity of wells. Lowered water levels could cause
wells, springs, and seeps to go dry and could result in lower
base flows in streams and rivers. The close interrelationship
between groundwater and surface water could result in disputes
over water rights stemming from groundwater withdrawals.
Mining may affect local groundwater systems in several ways.
Both underground and surface mines can interrupt aquifer flow,
making dewatering operations necessary. As much as 1,100 square
miles or almost 1 percent of the total surface area of the UCRB
may be subjected to surface mining(Table 12-19). Depending on
the composition of the overburden, oxidation may release contam-
inants to local shallow groundwater systems. In areas where the
energy resource is also an aquifer, as coal strata sometimes are,
the aquifer will be destroyed when the resource is mined. If the
overburden is an aquifer, the aquifer properties may be greatly
altered when the overburden is removed and then replaced.
Reclaiming surface mined lands for surface uses will not restore
the aquifer properties. Mixing materials may reduce porosity and
permeability, but this tendency may be offset by the disaggrega-
tion and loosening of materials during removal and replacement.
TABLE 12-19:
SURFACE ACREAGE ULTIMATELY DISTURBED BY
MINING IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
(acres)a
Location
Western Colorado13
Southwest Deserts0
Low
Demand
Case
39,900
68,900
Nominal
Case
47,600
121,900
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
79,400
179,000
Based on the number of mines hypothesized in the SRI model
(see Section 12.1), a coal density of 85 pounds per cubic
foot, and seam thicknessess given below.
Includes Rio Blanco, Garfield, and Huerfano Counties, assuming
one-third of the projected mines are underground and an
average seam thickness of 7 feet.
°Includes San Juan County, New Mexico, with an assumed average
seam thickness of 10.0 feet and Kane and Garfield Counties,
Utah, assuming half the projected mines are underground and
an average seam thickness of 10 feet.
777
-------
The net effect will vary according to the geologic conditions and
will have to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
B. Groundwater Quality Impacts
Most of the groundwater quality degradation that will result
from energy development will be caused by additions to the
natural aquifer systems. Shallow aquifers may be polluted
locally by mines, by energy conversion facilities, and by facil-
ities associated with population growth. Deep aquifers would
generally be polluted only where deep-well injection is used as
a means of liquid waste disposal.
Contaminated water from energy conversion facilities may
enter groundwater systems directly as a result of seepage of
liquid wastes and indirectly from leaching of solid waste from
disposal sites. The type of pollutant will vary from facility
to facility, depending on the type of conversion process and
the composition and quantity of waste generated. Estimates of
the amount of waste generated for the conversion processes con-
sidered are presented in Table 12-20. Problems and issues
related to holding ponds disposal of effluents are discussed in
Section 14.2.3.
In most places in the UCRB, the bedrock between the surface
and the water table is mostly sandstone and shales which can
filter and absorb contaminated seepage. In addition, the water
table in bedrock aquifers is quite deep, which also reduces the
chances for contamination. In alluvial aquifers, the unconsoli-
dated sand, gravel and clay can similarly filter and absorb
contaminants.
Population growth associated with the projected energy
development of the scenario will have two principal impacts on
groundwater systems: the withdrawals required for municipal and
domestic supplies, and the liquid and solid waste disposal
methods used. Where large developments are built over small or
low-permeability aquifers, water levels may decline as a result
of excessive withdrawal. Since the soils in much of the UCRB
are thin, the effluent from septic tank drainfields, where used,
may not be fully renovated, and partially-treated effluent may
seep into local groundwater. Pollutants leached from solid
waste disposal sites could also contaminate shallow aquifers, but
the arid climate over most of the basin lessens the potential
seriousness of this problem.
778
-------
TABLE 12-20:
WATER CONSUMED AND RESIDUALS GENERATED FOR STANDARD
SIZE PLANTS IN EACH STATE OF WESTERN REGION3
State
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
State
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Slurry Pipeline
25 x 106 tpy .
at 100% load factor
Acre-
Ft/yrb
19,171
19,171
19,171
Wet Solidsc
106 tpy '
-
Lurgi Gas
250 x 1Q6 scf/stream day
at 90% load factor
Acre-
Ft/yrb
4,618
3,307
4,206
5.639
Synthoil
100,000 bbl/stream day
at 90% load factor
• Acre-
Ft/yrb
10,296
10,085
9,227
11,753
Wet Solidsc
106 tpy
2.07
2
1.23
5.31
Wet Solids^
106 tpy
1.27
1.20
0.72
3
Synthane Gas
250 x 106 scf/stream day
at 90% load factor
Acre-
Ft/yrk
7,808
7;671
7,776
. 8,670
Electrical Generation
3,000 MWe at 35% efficiency
and 70% load factor
Acre-
Ft/yrb
26,659
23,884
25,842
28,482 '
29,206
29,816
Wet Solids'3
106 tpy
3.01
2.65
1.32
1.14
5
5.30
Wet Solidsc
106 tpy
1.12
1.08
0.71
2.84
Oil Shale
100,000 bbl/stream day
at 90% load factor
Acre-
Ft/yr*>
12,924
12,924
Wet Solids0
106 tpy
40.81
40.81
bbl « barrel(s)
MWe •= megawatt-electric
scf = standard cubic feet
tpy = tons per year
Source: Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Genera-
tion and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Final Report, for University of
Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, forthcoming.
aThese quantities for each state are the unit values used in each energy scenario. For
example, if the scenario were to have three Lurgi plants in Montana and two in Wyoming, the
Lurgi water requirements would be 3 x 4,618 a.cre-ft/yr in Montana, and 2 x 4,206 acre-ft/yr
in Wyoming.
bw,
'ater consumed.
"Residuals.
-------
12.3.2 Upper Missouri River Basin
A. Existing Conditions
1. Surface Water
Surface water is available from several sources in the
Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB). As shown in Figure 12-2, the
major sub-basins are the Upper Missouri, Yellowstone, Western
Dakota Tributaries, and Eastern Dakota Tributaries. The major
tributaries to the Missouri are the Yellowstone, Powder, Little
Missouri, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and James Rivers. Flows are
generally highest in the western part of the basin as a result
of melting snow and ice in the spring, and can also be high
throughout the basin as a result of prolonged rainfall or summer
cloudbursts.
Major river flows in the Fort Union Coal Region of the UMRB
are shown in Table 12-21. The 8.8 million acre-ft/yr in the
Yellowstone contributes about half the total flow into the
Missouri above Lake Sakakawea. Water supply and use in the
Montana and Wyoming portions of the UMRB are shown in Table 12-
22 for 1975. Total depletions are only 16 percent of the 20
million acre-ft/yr available in Montana and 19 percent of the
nearly 8 million acre-ft/yr available in Wyoming. Data on cate-
gories of depletions for the Fort Union region of the UMRB in
North Dakota are not available.
•7.
The total average depletion in the UMRB is not well docu-
mented, but is about 6.5 million acre-ft/yr including reservoir
evaporation above Sioux City, lowa.l The undepleted flow at
that point is approximately 28.3 million acre-ft/yr of which 19
million acre-ft/yr are estimated to be the practical limit for
depletions.2 Hence, at present, 12.5 million acre-ft/yr are
apparently available for use.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group
Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 16.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great
Plains Areas~with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin.
Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975, p. VII-6.
780
-------
so*
CANADA
UNITED STATES \
t
v — ^ ';
DJAKOTA \
i 1 '
I
1
N
i
I
SCALE: 1/11.500.000
100 0 100 200
APPROXIMATE SCALE IN MILES
MINNESOTA )
/LOVj/ER. MISSOURI
7
V
L...
l_MISSOURl
LEGEND
BASIN BOUNDARY-
SUBBASIN BOUNDARY-
SUBBASINS
STATE OR NATIONAL BOUNDARY
1. UPPER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES
2. YELLOWSTONE RIVER
3. WESTERN DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES
4. EASTERN DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES
5. PLATTE-NIOBRARA RIVERS
6. MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES
7. KANSAS RIVER
8. LOWER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES
FIGURE 12-2: SUBBASINS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
781
-------
TABLE 12-21:
FLOW IN MAJOR STREAMS IN THE FORT UNION'COAL
REGION OF THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASINa
River and Location
Yellowstone Basin
Clarks Fork Yellowstone
Wind-Bighorn near mouth
Tongue near mouth
Powder near mouth
Yellowstone near Sidney
Western Dakota Tributaries
Little Missouri near mouth
Knife near mouth
Heart near mouth
Cannonball near mouth
Grand near mouth
Missouri River at Lake Sakakawea
Missouri River at Oahe Reservoir
Missouri River at Sioux City, Iowa
Maximum Annual
Flow (acre-feet)
1,124,000
3,607,000-
569,000
1,154,000
12,690,000
1,294,000
315,000
515,000
711,000
712,000
-
-
-
Minimum Annual
Flow (acre-feet)
538,000
1,429,000
32,000
43,000
3,720,000
35,000
3,000
17,000
1,000
9,000
-
-
-
Average Annual
Flow (acre-feet)
767,000
2,550,000
304,000
416,000
8,800,000
390, 000
118,000
154,000
149,000
156,000
16,952,000
18,525,000
28,300,000^
00
to
Billings,.Mont.: U.S.
aNorthern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group Report.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 13.
.U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Management Team. Report on Water for
Energy in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin.
Denver, Colo.s Department of the Interior, 1975, p. VII-6.
-------
TABLE 12-22: WATER SUPPLY AND USE IN THE UPPER
MISSOURI
(1,000 acre-feet per year)
Total Water Supplya
Estimated depletions3
Irrigation
Municipal and
industrial
Minerals and
mining
Thermal electric
Other
Reservoir Evaporation
Total Depletions
Montana
20,141
2,280
99
10
1
204
603
3,197
Wyoming
7,884
1,245
29
55
3
172
1,504
Source: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report
on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States . Washington, D.C.: Government Print-
ing Office, 1975, pp. 229, 300, 411, 412.
supply and depletion estimates are only
for the Upper Missouri portion of the states.
The states include portions of other river
basins as well.
Water quality in the UMRB is generally good. Table 12-23
gives concentrations of TDS at selected locations in the Fort
Union Coal Region. The Missouri at Bismarck and the Yellowstone
at its mouth both have TDS of less than 450 mg/£, and only the
Powder River has a TDS much greater than that considered fresh by
the USGS classification system.
The allocation of water rights and the legal/political prob-
lems surrounding them are important in determining whether a por-
tion of the unused water of the Yellowstone and other rivers in
the UMRB can be used for energy purposes. (These problems and
associated issues are discussed in Section 14.2.) The legal
structure governing the Upper Missouri River is not as detailed
as that for the Colorado, partly because much more water is
available and not being used.
783
-------
TABLE 12-23: WATER QUALITY OF SELECTED RIVERS IN THE
FORT UNION COAL AREA OF THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER BASINa
River
Bighorn River at Bighorn, Montana
Tongue River at Miles City, Montana
Powder River at Moorhead, Montana
Yellowstone River at Miles City, Montana
Missouri River at Bismarck, North Dakota
TDS (mg/&)
613
496
1,226
396
441
mg/Ji = milligrams per liter
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work
Group Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of
the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 62.
Interstate compacts exist for two rivers in the UMRB impor-
tant for energy resource development, the Yellowstone and the
Belle Fourche. The Belle Fourche River Compact1 apportions the
unappropriated water of the river 90 percent to South Dakota and
10 percent to Wyoming. The Yellowstone River Compact2 apportions
the waters of the Yellowstone and its tributaries between Montana
and Wyoming as follows:
Wyoming Montana
Tributary (percent) (percent)
Clarks Fork 60 40
Bighorn 80 20
Tongue 40 60
Powder 42 58
Based on these allocations and estimates of annual flow and
present consumption on the Belle Fourche and Yellowstone, esti-
mates have been made of unappropriated flow available to the
states involved. These are shown in Table 12-24. The flow in
the Yellowstone basin available to Wyoming is estimated at 2.44
million acre-ft/yr; that available to Montana is estimated at 1
million acre-ft/yr.
Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944) .
2
Yellowstone River Compact of 1960, 65 Stat. 663 (1951).
784
-------
TABLE 12-24:
ALLOCATION OF FLOWS BY INTERSTATE WATER COMPACTS FOR
STREAMS WITHIN THE FORT UNION COAL REGION3
Compact
Yellowstone
River
Belle Fourche
.Stream
Powder River
Tongue River
Bighorn River
Clarks Fork
Belle Fourche
River
Average
Annual Flow13
(acre-ft/yr)
416,000
304,000
2,500,000
767,000
184,000
Unappropriated
FlowC
(acre-ft/yr)
287,300
241,000
2,200,000
714,000
87,000
Unappropriated
Flow Available to States0
(acre-ft/yr)
Wyoming
120,000
96,400
1,800,000
429,000
7,300
Montana
166,600
144,700
400,000
285,000
South Dakota
79,700
-J
00
Ul
Taken from U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Management Team. Report on Water for
Energy in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin. Denver,
Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975, pp. II-5.
Historic average annual flow adjusted to the 1970 level of development.
'"Wyoming, State Engineer's.Office. Water Planning Program. Water and Related Land Resources of
Northeastern Wyoming, Report No- 10. Cheyenne, Wyo.s Wyoming Water Planning Program, 1972.
-------
2. Groundwater
Aquifers in the UMRB include both deep and shallow aquifers
in the bedrock as well as shallow aquifers in the alluvium above
the bedrock. A total of about 860 million acre-ft of water is
stored in these aquifers at a depth of less than 1,000 feet.1
The aquifers most likely to affect or be affected by our hypo-
thesized energy developments are the Madison (which extends to
several thousand feet in depth), several aquifers in the Fort
Union Coal formation (which are less than a hundred feet deep), .
and alluvial aquifers associated with the major rivers and streams.
The shallow bedrock and alluvial aquifers are not productive
enough to be considered as potential sources of water for energy
facilities,2 but they will probably be used extensively to supply
water for the associated population growth. If groundwater is
used to help meet the demands of the energy conversion facili-
ties, the Madison aquifer is the most likely source.
The Madison aquifer is presently being studied as a possible
water source for energy developments, although its hydrogeology
is not completely understood.3 Some wells into the aquifer yield
more than 10,000 gpm, but most yield less than 1,000 gpm.4 The
Madison is recharged at high elevations where the limestone form-
ing the aquifer crops out. High elevation rainfall and snowmelt
are the primary sources of the water. Discharge from the Madison
is to wells and, via leakage, into shallower aquifers. "The qual-
ity of water in the Madison, as measured by TDS, ranges from less
than 500 mg/£ near the recharge areas in the Powder River Basin
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee. The Missouri River
Basin Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1971,
Vol. 1, p. 63.
2
Swenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Asso-
ciated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River
Basin, Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow,1
eds. Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American
Water Resources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974), p. 212.
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder,-River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming . Denver,, Colo. : Northern Great Plains Resources Pro-
gram, 1974.
4
U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Plan
of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Associated
Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota,
and Wyoming, Open-File Report 75-631.Denver, Colo.:Geological
Survey, 1975, p.' 3.
786
-------
to more than 4,000 mg/£ near the Montana-North Dakota line.1 In
the Williston Basin area, where the water has been in the aquifer
much longer, it is moderately to very saline (3,000-10,000 mg/A)
and therefore not as likely to be used for energy facilities in
the lignite fields of western North Dakota. Existing uses of
Madison groundwater are for municipal, industrial, domestic,
stock, and oil field waterflood purposes.2
Aquifers in the Fort Union Formation occur in both sandstone
beds and coal seams. They are recharged from precipitation in
high elevation areas and from surface streams. Most of these
aquifers are at or near the water table depth. Water quality in
Fort Union aquifers varies depending on rock composition and how
long the water has been in the aquifer. Existing uses are pri-
marily for rural domestic supplies and stock watering.
Alluvial aquifers are located below major rivers and streams
in the basin. The total amount of water stored in these aquifers
is not known, but the productivity of some is sufficient to
supply irrigation wells that produce over 1,000 gpm. Water
quality in alluvial aquifers is usually good unless recharge is
from lower bedrock aquifers. Existing uses include supplying
water for municipal, domestic, stock, and irrigation needs.
Groundwater use in the UMRB is limited by the large number
of wells usually needed to produce high yields, the low permea-
bility of the aquifers which limits the flow per well, and the
lack of sufficient knowledge on the occurrence, location, and
properties of the aquifers.
B. Water Requirements
The water requirements for energy development in the UMRB
have been calculated for the three levels of energy development
postulated in Section 12.1. These requirements are shown in
Table 12-25. Requirements will vary with the technologies used.
If water minimization techniques are employed for all uses except
cooling, regional consumption for the year 2000 could be reduced
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming . Denver, Colo: Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1974, p. 3.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Plan
of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Asso-
ciated Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South
Dakota, and Wyoming, Open File Report 75-631. Denver, Colo.:
Geological Survey, 1975, p. 5.
787
-------
TABLE 12-25:
PROJECTED WATER DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
IN UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASINa
Energy Type
Coal Mine
Slurry Pipeline
Gasification
Liquefaction
Power Plant
Oil Shale
Uranium
Total
Water Requirements
(acre-feet per year)
Low Demand
1980
4,712
18,390
0
0
117,600
0
7,555
148,257
1990
12,276
91,950
18,172
0
294,000
0
18.132
434,530
2000
29,388
239,070
245,322
34,920
411,600
0
33,242
993,542
Nominal Demand
1980
5,580
18,390
0
0
147,000
0
9,046
180/015
1990
15,748
110,340
27,258
0
382,200
0
24,170
559,716'
2000
39,556
312,630
408,870
26,190
529,200
0
46,841
1,363.287
Low Nuclear Availability
1980
7,068
18,390
0
0
176,400
0
3,022
204,880
1990
.22,196
183,900
18,172
0
499,800
0
1,511
725,579
2000
53,204
495,530
363,440
17,460
882,000
0
0
1,811,634
00
00
Taken from Section 12.1, SRI Model regional demand predictions and from the Energy Resource Development System
Descriptions assuming that the following facility water requirements hold:
Facility
Coal Mine
Slurry Pipeline
Coal Gasification
Coal Liquefaction
Power Plant
Oil Shale Retort
Uranium Mill
Assumed Size Load Factor
5 million tons per year 100%
25 million tons per year 100%
250 million cubic feet per day 90%
100,000 barrels per day 90%
3,000 meg-awatts-electric 70%
100,000 barrels per day 90%
5,000 tons per year 100%
Water Requirements
(acre-feet per .year)
124
18,390
9.086
17,460
29,400
16,650
1.511
-------
TABLE 12-26:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR POPULATION INCREASES IN
THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASINa'b
(acre-feet per year)
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Total
Low Demand
1980
1,716
1,155
1,600
4,471
1985
6,290
3,135
4,455
13,880
1990
8,070
4,967
6,023
19,060
2000
24,650
18,790
16,930
60,370
I960
1,914
1,155
2,739
5,808
Nominal Demand
1985
8,812
3,713
5,775
18,300
1990
12,342
5,808
7,425
25,575
2000
35,490
24,470
16,930
76,890
Low Nuclear Availability
1980
3,300
1,155
2,673
7,128
1985 .
12,475
4,885
6,040
,23,400
1990
16.170
7,110
9,210
32,490
2000
47,850
25,900
25,150
98,900
*Above water consumed in 1975.
Assuming 150 gallons per capita per day using population increase estimates from Section 12.4.
by 15-18 percent or 250,000-272,000 acre-ft/yr1, depending on the
level of development. Using wet-dry or all dry cooling could
reduce these requirements even further but at a slightly higher
economic cost.2
Water requirements resulting from the increases in popula-
tion associated with the three levels of development have been
projected and are shown in Table 12-26. Assuming a daily con-
sumption of 150 gallons per person, these water requirements are
less than 80,000 acre-ft/yr which is about 4 percent of that
required for energy facilities. Even if the per-capita water con-
sumption estimate is doubled, the requirements for population
increases would still be less than 10 percent of that needed for
facilities.
Total water requirements for the UMRB in the year 2000 for
the three levels of development assumed in Section 12.1 are: Low
Demand case, 1.05 million acre-ft/yr; Nominal Demand Case, 1.43
acre-ft/yr; and Low Nuclear Availability case, 1.89 million
acre-ft/yr.
Water Purification Associates. Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States, Final Report, for University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
2
The water consumption and economic consequences of using
wet-dry cooling will be evaluated during the remainder of this
study.
789
-------
C. Water-Related Impacts of Energy Development in the UMRB
1. Surface Water
The water requirements for energy development identified
above are 8-15 percent of the water available for use in the UMRB.
Because of the limited data on water availability and energy
requirements for individual rivers in the UMRB, estimates cannot
be made of the impacts that energy development might have on par-
ticular rivers, although demands on the Yellowstone" from Powder
River coal development will probably be substantial. However,
the overall impact on the basin from energy developments are not
expected to be serious.
If water depletions in the UMRB are significant, there may
be an effect on the length of the navigation season in the Lower
Missouri. If 10 million acre-ft/yr are withdrawn from the UMRB,
this season would drop from a nominal 8 months to zero for 11 of
the next 75 years.1 If only 600,000 acre-ft/yr are withdrawn,
the season would drop to zero for only 1 of the next 75 years.''
Much of the Fort Union Coal Region is in areas not served by
nearby streams; thus, a regional water system may be required to
service a large part of the proposed development.3 If a regional
system is developed, there will be an effect .on the river as well
as on the land area disturbed by the construction. The magnitude
of the effect will be related to several design considerations,
including the location of the intakes, types of intakes, and
amount of water withdrawn. Several smaller diversions at a vari-
ety of locations would probably reduce the local effect on the
stream but would increase the amount of land disturbed.
Water quality impacts due to energy development in the UMRB
have been estimated for levels of development similar to those
assumed here and found to be small. TDS increases in the Missouri
U.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division,
Reservoir Control Center. Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs
Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74. Omaha, Nebr.: Corps
of Engineers, 1974 , p. 23.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great
Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin. Denver,
Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975, p. V-21.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Appraisal Report on Montana-Wyoming Aqueduct. Billings, Mont.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.
790
-------
River at Bismarck .were estimated to be from 13 mg/£ to 454 mg/^,.1
TDS changes in tributaries were not consistent, with increases
predicted in some and decreases in others. Both the amount of
change and direction depend on assumptions concerning level and
type of development and the amount and quality of return flows to
the streams.
Although the most significant water-related impacts in the
UMRB will be due to water depletions and changes in water quality,
a number of additional impacts may also be important. These
include municipal and industrial water supply and wastewater
treatment problems, in-stream water needs to support fish and
wildlife, and disposal of effluents from energy facilities. Most
of these impacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters or
in Section 12.3.1, and those sections should be consulted for
details. Problems and issues resulting from these impacts are
discussed in Section 14.2.
2. Groundwater
Groundwater withdrawals should be increased by the projected
energy resource development scenario. Some withdrawals will be
for mine dewatering operations, but most withdrawals will be for
consumption. Yield from shallow aquifers is not sufficient to
meet the water needs of the energy conversion facilities. How-
ever, groundwater will probably make significant contributions to
water supply for the associated population growth. If the com-
bined withdrawals from the Fort Union aquifers exceed the rate
of recharge, then wells, springs, and seeps may go dry, and lower
base flows in streams and rivers could occur.
The Madison aquifer will probably be used if groundwater is
needed for the scenario energy facilities. The Madison may be
able to supply a significant fraction of the water required by
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group
Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 66.
2
Swenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Asso-
ciated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin,
Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds.
Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American Water
Resources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974), p. 212.
791
-------
the facilities, but groundwater mining may occur as a result.
This has occurred in the vicinity of Midwest, Wyoming, where
about 12-14 wells were drilled for waterflood supplies for oil
field secondary recovery. This development caused a decline of
3,000 feet in the water levels in wells, with an area of
influence extending under six townships.2
Mining may affect local groundwater systems by interrupting
or changing aquifer flow and by introducing effluents into ground-
water aquifers. The surface acreage likely to be disturbed by
mining in the UMRB is shown in Table 12-27. Over 2,100 square
TABLE 12-27:
SURFACE ACREAGE ULTIMATELY DISTURBED BY MINING
IN THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN3
(acres)
Location
Northern Great Plains'3
(North Dakota Lignite)
Powder Riverc
Low
Demand
446,700
395,700
Nominal
Demand
480,000
581,600
Low Nuclear
Availability
540,000
813,400
aBased on the number of mines hypothesized in the SRI model
(see Section 12.1), a coal density of 85 pounds per cubic foot,
and seam thicknesses given below.
y,^
Includes Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Hettinger, McKenzie, McLean,
Mercer, Oliver, Slope, Stark, and Williams counties. Assumed
average seam thickness of 12.5 feet.
clncludes: Powder River, Big Horn, and Rosebud, Montana counties
(assumed average seam thickness 27 feet) ; and Campbell, Johnson, and|
Sheridan Counties, Wyoming (assumed average seam thickness 64 feet).
Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming . Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Pro-
gram, 1974; U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.
Plan of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Asso-
ciated Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South
Dakota, and Wyoming, Open-File Report 75-631. Denver, Colo.:
Geological Survey, 1975.
2
Swenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Asso-
ciated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin,
Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds.
Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American Water
Resources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974), p. 217.
792
-------
miles may be affected, and in some counties, as much as 18
percent of the land area may be surface-mined (see Section 12.4).
Mining and energy conversion facility effects on groundwater
systems in the UMRB, will be similar to those described earlier
for the UCRB. However, a number of possible impacts cannot be
adequately assessed because of a lack of detailed knowledge about
UMRB groundwater. Data on both the rate of movement of ground-
water and the fate and effects of pollutants in groundwater
systems are needed.1
12.3.3 Summary of Regional Water Impacts
A. Upper Colorado River Basin
In the UCRB, water demands for energy uses for the year 2000
will be 38-71 percent of presently unallocated water for the
three levels of energy development being considered. If water
conservation efforts are made at each of the energy facilities,
this demand can be reduced by 18-22 percent or 162,000-185,000
acre-ft/yr.
Meeting these water requirements will increase the salinity
of the Colorado even if no pollutants are discharged from the
facilities. This will occur because salt from natural sources
will not decrease and energy facility consumption will decrease
in-stream dilution flows, thereby increasing salt concentrations.
The competition for water in the UCRB will become more
intense as a consequence of energy development. Municipalities,
Indians, and in-stream flow requirements will all have increased
demands over the next 24 years. The available supply is not
likely to be adequate for all potential users, and changes in
stream flow will affect aquatic biota.
Groundwater and surface water must be considered parts of a
single resource system if water management is to be well-informed.
Groundwater resources will be used primarily for municipalities,
and both municipal withdrawals and possible groundwater pollution
from sewage disposal will affect the resource. An additional
groundwater impact may occur as a result of mine dewatering. The
most serious impact from this activity will be on ecology since
the springs and seeps may dry up as a result of mine dewatering.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group,
Ground Water Subgroup. Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas in
the Fort Union Coal Region, Open-File Report 74-48. Helena,
Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey,
1974, p. 13.
793
-------
Adequate impact assessment requires more data on present
allocations and uses of water in the UCRB and on groundwater
resources. Efforts to acquire this information are currently
under way.
B. Upper Missouri River Basin
Impacts on the UMRB due to energy development will not be as
serious as those in the UCRB, primarily because considerably more
water is available in the Missouri. Based on regionwide figures,
energy facilities will require 8-15 percent of the water avail-
able in the year 2000. However, problems may arise in getting
the water to energy facilities. Pipelines will probably be nec-
essary in many of the developments in the Powder River Resource
Region.
The naviga'tion season on the Lower Missouri will be reduced
as a result of depletions for energy facilities in the Upper
Basin. Depletions of 600,000 acre-ft/yr would result in 1 of the
next 75 years having no navigation season; depletions of 10
million acre-ft/yr would result in 11 of the next 75 years with
no navigation season.
Groundwater from the Madison aquifer may be used to supple-
ment surface water for energy facilities in the UMRB. Because of
low porosity in the aquifer, municipal users, of this groundwater
source may be affected. Drilling deeper wells or finding supple-
mental municipal sources may be necessary. However, these
assessments are preliminary because of insufficient information
about groundwater.
12.4 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
12.4.1 Introduction
In this section, social, economic, and political impacts of
western energy development are analyzed and discussed for the
western region and, more selectively, for the nation as a whole.
Population impacts are considered first, primarily in terms of
net population changes expected in the West as a result of each
of the three levels of energy resource development being exam-
ined. Following is an economic and fiscal analysis which esti-
mates changes in personal income, public services, and economic
structure in the western region. Land use, social and cultural
effects, and political and governmental impacts are discussed
next, followed by an analysis of impacts on the availability of
personnel, materials and equipment, and capital. The last sec-
tion summarizes the most significant regional and national
impacts of western energy resource development.
794
-------
12.4. 2 Population Impacts
This section analyzes the large-scale, regionwide population
changes in contrast to the site-specific analyses reported in
Chapters 6-11. For each of the three cases of the SRI model
described in Section 12.1,1 manpower requirements for construc-
tion and operation were obtained from Bechtel's Energy Supply
-Planning Model.2 Average (rather than peak) construction
employment was used for each of the energy facilities that are
projected to be built in given time periods.
A. Regionwide
One of the most important variables that will influence
population change is the location of the necessary personnel.
This can be considered as two questions: how many of the required
workers will be available locally, and where will the others come
from? A greater number of local workers will decrease the need
for in-migration from elsewhere. Limited current information
indicates that about 46 percent of the workforce is recruited locally
in the Four Corners states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah) ,
and about 34 percent in the Northern Great Plains states (Montana,
North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming).3 Over 30 percent of
construction workers in the Northern Great Plains came from
outside the western region, while only 10 percent came from
outside the West to the Four Corners construction sites (pri-
marily because of the larger population in the area).4 In the
future, more workers are likely to move from outside the
West, and somewhat fewer will probably be available in local
areas. However, in the absence of other data, the available
estimates of 66 percent net in-migration to local areas
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park,
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
2
Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model.
San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 14-17.
4
Ibid. The limited number of energy projects considered by
this study (19) makes it difficult to expect future energy devel-
opments to be identical to those in the survey.
795
-------
in the Northern Great Plains and 54 percent net in-migration to
local areas in the Four Corners states are used here.1
In migrant employment in an area was assumed to induce
secondary employment and additional population according to the
multipliers shown in Table 12-28; these were used in an economic
base methodology described in the Introduction to Part II.2
TABLE 12-28:
SECONDARY/BASIC EMPLOYMENT
MULTIPLIERS AND POPULATION/
EMPLOYEE MULTIPLIER FOR
OPERATION EMPLOYMENT
Year
1980
1985
1990
2000
Secondary/Basic
Employment3
0.4
0.8
0.8
1
Population/Employee
3
3
3
3
These economic multipliers are expected to
increase over time as the regional economy
becomes more diverse and internally self-
stimulating. See Crawford, A.B., H.H. Fullerton,
and W.C. Lewis. Socio-Economic Impact Study at
Oil Shale Development in the Uintah Basin, for
White River Shale Project. Providence, Utah:
Western Environmental Associates, 1975, pp. 147-158,
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 14-17. This assumption appears to balance future in-migra-
tion to the region with movements within and among the western
states.
2
The economic base methodology was chosen over the alter-
native, input-output analysis. For a discussion of the two
methods; see Stenehjem, Erik J. Forecasting the Local Economic
Impacts of Energy Resource Development: A Methodological Approach,
ANL/AA-3. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1975.;
796
-------
The population effects of facility construction and operation in
the regional scenario vary among the three Stanford Research
Institute's (SRI) levels of development.1
Construction employment is based on continuous building activity
in the region to meet development projections. This average con-
struction level will result in the population increases shown in
Table 12-29. Overall increases (construction plus operation-
related) show that construction activity would have the greatest
impact before 1980 and the least in the 1990's (Table 12-30).
With the exception of the Nominal case in the 1990-2000 period,
which includes large-scale oil shale development, construction
activity would add less than 25 percent to the operation-related
population increase after 1980.
Operation-related or permanent population increases of the
Nominal case projection would result in 241,400 new people coming
to the region by 1990 and a 861,100 increase by 2000. The large
increase during the 1990's would primarily be due to the assump-
tions in SRI's model that result in large-scale oil shale devel-
opment in Colorado and extensive coal production in the Northern
Great Plains. Although the increases would not be large on a
regionwide basis (less than a 10-percent increase in the highest
projection) , the parts of the region receiving the greatest pro-
portion of the energy-related population are those with small
populations currently, not the metropolitan areas which make up
about half of the region's present population.
B. Subregional
Disaggregation of the energy supply areas considered in
the SRI model provides an analysis of subregional impacts
to state and substate areas. Considerable error is poten-
tially built into this procedure, even on the state level,
because South Dakota and Arizona are omitted from the energy
supply region. County-level projections appear to include many
reasonable locations within states but concentrate resource
development in too few areas.2 Further, the SRI-Ford Foundation
assumptions result in high levels of oil shale production, most
of which was allocated to Colorado in the disaggregation.3 AS a
result, the western Colorado area is projected to receive 16-20
See Section 12.1 for a description of the three levels of
development./
2
For example, Sweetwater County and Carbon County, Wyoming
do not include any coal development.
As noted earlier, some refinement of the Stanford Research
x Institute's levels of development will be part of Phase II of
this technology assessment.
797
-------
TABLE 12-29: CONSTRUCTION-RELATED POPULATION INCREASES AFTER 1975 IN EIGHT-STATE
REGION3
Level of Development
Nominal Case
Construction-Related
Population
Percent of Permanent
Increase
Low Demand Case
Construction-Related
Population
Percent of Permanent
Increase
Low Nuclear Availability Case
Construction-Related
Population
Percent of Permanent
Increase
1980
38,900
68.7
15,900
35.3
21,300
32.5
1985
38,900
21.7
16,200
12.3
27,900
13.4
1990
39,500
16.4
14,100
7.9
18,000
6.6
2000
386,500
4.4.9
132,400
20.8
201,000
21.6
00
aBased on average employment and number of new facilities in each period; a single
multiplier of 2.0 is used, resulting in a possible underestimate of about 30-50
percent in addition to error ranges on Bechtel's work force estimates (see Section
3.4) .
-------
TABLE 12-30:
OVERALL (CONSTRUCTION PLUS OPERATION) EXPECTED
POPULATION INCREASES AFTER 1975 DUE TO ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT IN EIGHT-STATE REGIONa
Year
1980
1985
1990
2000
Nominal
Case
95,500
218,300
280,900
1,247,600
Low Demand Case
- 60,900
147,900
192,900
768,300
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
86,800
235,900
289,200
1,133,100
The 1975 estimated population for the eight states was
9,551,000. See U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. "Estimates of the Population of States, By Age:
July 1, 1974 and 1975 Advanced Report." Current Population
Reports, Series P-25, No. 619 (January 1976).
percent of the total regional population increase in each
scenario by 2000 (Table 12-31). The sub-state areas whose popu-
lation increases vary most among the three levels of development
are those where uranium mining and milling facilities are pro-
jected to be located.1
Aggregating the data by state and separating construction
and operation based population illustrates the distribution of
impacts among the western states (Table 12-32). Overall, the
Low Demand case would result in a population increase 26 percent
below that of .the Nominal case. The greatest decrease would be
in Utah (43 percent lower), whereas Colorado would be least
affected (17 percent lower). The Low Nuclear Availability case
would result in an average increase 8 percent above that of the
Nominal case, but t-he distribution differs considerably because
of the emphasis on coal and the elimination of uranium produc-
tion. These assumptions result in a decrease in the population
projections for New Mexico and Southern Colorado, when compared
to the Nominal case, and an increase in Montana's population.
A comparison of the energy-related population growth pro-
jected here with a set of projections for the same period based on
For example, McKinley and Valencia Counties in New Mexico
and Carbon County in Wyoming. Counties were allocated for
uranium production according to data mapped in U.S., Energy
Research and Development Administration. Statistical Data of the
Uranium Industry, January 1, 1976. Grand Junction, Colo.:
Energy Research and Development Administration, 1976, p. 24.
799
-------
TABLE 12-31:
PERMANENT POPULATION ADDITIONS AFTER
1975 FOR ENERGY AREAS OF SIX WESTERN
STATES, FOR THREE SCENARIOS3
Year
Nominal
Case
Low Demand
Case
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
COLORADO
Garfield, Mesa, and Rio Blanco Counties Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
1,800
17,800
34,600
240,800
0
11,200
28,600
198,900
0
29,400
30,700
231,600
Huerfano County Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
11,600
11,600
12,700
3,600
11,600
11,600
12,700
5,400
14,400
13,800
25,700
UTAH
Kane and Garfield Counties Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
6,400
10,800
12,200
12,800
2,200
2,900
2,900
4,100
4,600
11,900
15,500
26,600
Uintah and Grand Counties Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
600
500
27,000
0
0
0
18,600
0
0
0
24,500
NEW MEXICO
Northwestern Area
(San Juan, McKinley, and Valencia Counties)
1980
1985
1990
2000
6,300
14,600
20,600
54,200
3,700
11,400
15,200
35,700
2,300
5,800
7,300
24,200
800
-------
TABLE 12-31: (Continued)
Year
Nominal
Case
Low Demand
Case
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
NEW MEXICO
Southeastern Area
(Lea, Eddy, Roosevelt, and Chaves Counties)
1980
1985
1990
2000
9,900
12,900
6,900
0
8,200
10,500
4,800
0
9,900
15,100
6,900
0
MONTANA
Big Horn, Powder River, and Rosebud Counties Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
11,600
53,400
74,800
215,100
10,400
38,100
48,900
149,400
20,000
75,600
98,000
290,000
WYOMING
Campbell County Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
14,200
25,000
32,200
81,100
8,800
19,800
26,300
52,300
16,200
26,600
55,800
91,400
Johnson, Sheridan, Converse, Natrona, Carbon,
Fremont, and Sweetwater Counties
1980
1985
1990
2000
2,400
10,000
12,800
68,900
900
7,200
10,200
50,300
7,000
16,800
25,800
76,800
NORTH DAKOTA
Dunn, Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties Area
1980
1985
1990
2000
7,000
14,000
21,400
84,600
7,000
14,500
25,600
52,400
7,000
16,800
25,800
76,800
801
-------
TABLE 12-31: (Continued)
Year
Nominal
Case
Low Demand
Case
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
NORTH DAKOTA (Continued)
Billings, Bowman, Hettinger, McKenzie, Slope,
Stark, and Williams Counties
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
4,500
13,800
61,700
0
4,600
4,600
61,500
0
12,800
17,300
80,200
Based on disaggregation of results in Cazalet, E. et al.
A Western Energy Development Study: Economics. Menlo
Park: Stanford Research Insitute, 1976. Manpower
estimates are from M. Carasso, et al., The Energy Supply
Planning Model. San Francisco: Bechtel Corporation,
1975. Multipliers used for population estimates are in
Table 12-30. These estimates are probably as much as
40 percent high or 20 percent low for the given counties
even assuming the regional supply levels involved in
each case of the SRI projections.
802
-------
TABLE 12-32;
POPULATION INCREASES IN WESTERN STATES AFTER 1975 DUE TO
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Year
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
Nominal
Construction
200
13,100
11,100
122,200
15,600
1,300
1,200
13,800
3,100
400
2,500
15,000
7,400
12,200
10,400
80,800
6,200
9,300
12,400
100,700
6,400
4,600
1,900
54,300
Operation
1,800
29,500
46,200
253,600
16,200
27,600
27,500
54,300
6,400
11,400
12,700
39,800
11,600
53,400
74,800
215,100
7,000
22,500
35,200
148,300
16,600
35,000
45,000
150,000
Low Demand
Construction
400
8,000
11,160
99,900
12,720
3,460
840
3,440
2,700
0
0
11,160
4,900
9,400
2,200
57,530
6,200
(5,400
9,940
6:., 370
4,660
4,900
4,020
31,250
Operation
3,600
22,800
40,300
211,600
12,100
21,900
20,100
35,700
2,200
2,900
2,900
22,700
10,400
38,100
48,900
149,400
7,000
19,000
30,100
113,900
9,700
27,000
36,500
102,600
Low Nuclear
Construction
600
12,940
7,400
125,000
14,620
4,940
400
13,440
2,900
2,900
2,700
17,900
9,600
16,700
10,570
93,010
6,200
15,100
8,770
102,260
8,600
3,200
6,100
49,900
Operation
5,400
33,400
44,500
257,400
12,300
20,900
14,300
24,200
4,600
11,900
15,500
51,100
20,000
75,600
98,000
290,000
7,000
29,600
43,100
157,000
16,200
36,600
55,800
152,400
CO
O
U)
-------
long-term trends made by the Department of Commerce's Office of
Business Economics (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis) and the
Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (OBERS
projections) gives an indication of the relative magnitude of
energy-related impacts (Table 12-33).! The OBERS Projections
merely extend past trends into the future, with the result that:
the out-migration in the Northern Great Plains is expected to
continue; such rapidly growing metropolitan areas as Denver,
Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Albuquerque are projected to con-
tinue growing; and mining activity in the West is expected to
continue its trend through only about 1970. This involves very
slow growth when compared with present activity. Because of
recent events, which have broken some seemingly long-term trends,
the actual population and economic activity levels in the West
through 1975 show the OBERS projections to be large underesti-
mates. 2 Since energy development is the major impetus for
reversal of the trends in the Northern Great Plains states, and
is a considerable stimulus in the Four Corners states, the OBERS
projections can be assumed to be the likely state of the western
region in the absence of energy development. Thus, the greatest
impact from energy development will be in those states which were
expected to continue to lose population (generally the Northern
Great Plains), whereas the smallest impact will be in those
states where other growth was projected (the Four Corners states) .
To summarize, the population impacts from western energy
developments will not be large regionwide (at most a 13-percent
increase through 2000). However, these developments will largely
take place far from the metropolitan areas and will impact small
towns and rural areas most. In some areas, a 10-fold population
increase by 2000 is possible under conditions similar to the
Nominal case development considered here. Examples of effects
in these areas are included in the site-specific analyses of
Chapters 6-11.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
and Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 1972
OBERS Projections; Economic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4:
States, for the U.S. Water Resources Council. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
2
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic.Analysis Division. "Tracking the BEA State
Economic Projections." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 56
(April 1976), pp. 22-29. For example, Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota, and Wyoming have grown in population in contrast
to projected steady declines. New Mexico is nearing its pro-
jected population for the year 2000; all other states in the
region also are well above the estimates.
804
-------
TABLE 12-33:
COMPARISON OF POPULATION INCREASES FOR NOMINAL
CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT WITH OBERS POPULATION
PROJECTIONS, 1980-2000
State
Colorado
New Mexcio
Utah
Montana
North
Dakota
Wyoming
Arizona0
South
Dakota0
Year
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000'
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000'
Energy-Related
Population
Increase3
2,000
42,600
375,800
31,800
28,700
68,100
9,500
15>200
54,800
19,000
85,200
295,900
13,200
47,600
249,000
23,000
46,900
204,300
OBERS
Projection13
2,586,100
2,889,900
3,134,100
1,054,900
1,131,200
1,180,400
1,160,100
1,309,600
1,412,100
669,700
664,500
656,400
578,700
563,400
545,200
330,900
334,000
333,400
2,225,900
2,700,900
3,065,500
654,500
647,500
637,000
Energy-Re lated
Increase As A
Percentage Of
OBERS Projection
0.1
1.5
121
3
2.5
5.8
0.8
1.2
3.9
2.8
12.8
45.1
2.3
8.4
45.7
7
14
61.3
Actual 1975
Population
2,534,000
1,147,000
1,206,000
748,000
635,000
374,000
2,224,000
683,000
Operation plus construction phases; from Table 12-32.
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department
of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 1972 OBERS Projections; Economic
Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4: States, for the U.S. Water Resources Council. Wash-
ington, D.C..: Government Printing Office, 1974.
cArizona and South Dakota were not expected to be significantly impacted directly
by the levels of energy development analyzed. See Section 12.1
805
-------
12.4.3 Economic Impacts
A. Personal Income
New income will be generated in the region because of job
opportunities for both newcomers and current residents. Based on
the population increases shown in Table 12-33 and income data for
workers in communities with energy development,1 changes to
states' aggregate personal incomes and per-capita income for the
Nominal case energy development can be determined (Table 12-34) .
According to these projections, energy development is
expected to increase total income in the six-state area by about
30 percent2 over the 26-year period, an absolute increase from
$35.8 to $46.5 billion per year. Further, most of the increase
would occur during the 1990's, corresponding to the most inten-
sive energy development; thus, energy development alone would
induce an annual growth rate of income of 2.04 percent during
that decade.
On the state level, Wyoming would experience the greatest
relative gain in aggregate personal income (+78.7 percent over
the quarter-century), and Utah would experience the least (+8.2
percent). By the per-capita measure, Wyoming would make the
greatest absolute gain ($810 per year), and Utah would have the
least ($170 per year).3 The only change in rank order on the
basis of per-capita incomes will occur in the 1990's when Wyoming
is expected to surpass Colorado.
These increases in per-capita income would be due mostly to
construction; thus, incomes would probably slip to about current
levels when energy-related construction diminishes because
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 50-
2
An annual growth rate of 1.0 percent compound. This is in
addition to income growth from other sources, such as produc-
tivity gains and national trends.
Although not calculated here, South Dakota and Arizona will
experience the least new energy development of the eight states
studied and the smallest income gains from new energy developments.
806
-------
TABLE 12-34:
CHANGES IN ANNUAL PERSONAL INCOME, SIX
WESTERN STATES, NOMINAL CASE ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT5*
Additions to Aggregate Income Above 1975 Levels
(millions of 1975 dollars)
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Six State Total
1980
16
318
86
164
119
185
888
1985
383
217
88
497
258
286
1,729
1990
478
215
124
618
379
321
2,135
2000
3,414
572
482
2,374
2,165
1,632
10,639
Statewide Per Capita Incomes*5
(constant 1975 dollars
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Six State
Average
1974
5,970
4,620
4,970
5,330
6,200
5,760
5,475
1980
5,970
4,770
5,010 ...
5,410 '
6,260
5,890
5,550
1985
6,020
4,690
5,000
5,520
6,290
5,920
5,575
1990
6,020
4,690
5,010
5,540
6,330
5,890
5,580
2000
6,380
4,830.
5,140
6,100
6\>900
6,570
5,986
the population projections as a base, our esti-
mated error range for the income changes is an addi-
tional i20 percent. National trends or competition
for labor within the region could cause these to be
even greater underestimates.
V\
These are per-capita incomes; family or household
incomes would be at least three times these figures.
807
-------
construction labor generally is paid more than operational labor.
Gains to many residents of the West will not be very large unless
they become employed in energy-related jobs.
B. Current Economic Structure
The economic structures of the eight states vary consider-
ably, with agriculture dominating in the Northern Great Plains
and tourist-related service activities dominating in the Four
Corners states (Table 12-35). Manufacturing activities are less
important in the region than nationally, and federal government
employment is greater. Although only a small proportion of
income compared to other sectors, mining and other energy devel-
opment income is particularly important in Wyoming, New Mexico,
Arizona, and Utah.
The energy resource areas within the region are also the
areas with the greatest current agricultural activities.2 This
suggests that the land-use, water-use, and employment impacts of
energy resource development will fall disproportionately on agri-
culture. Since employment in agriculture has been declining,
energy development may hold and/or bring back young people who
have been moving out, in addition to bringing new in-migration.
The trend has been for total agricultural income to increase,
although employment on farms declines, so that the relative eco-
nomic importance of agriculture is better indicated by total farm
income, as shown in Table 12-35.
C. Sectoral Shifts
As suggested above, the largest single economic change in
most areas is expected to be the growth of energy sectors, with
agriculture sharing a decreasing proportion of overall economic
activity. If significant amounts of water or land are removed
from agricultural use, absolute decreases in agricultural
In fact, in three states (North Dakota, Wyoming, and Colo-
rado) current per-capita incomes are higher than the average assumed
for new operation workers and their families ($5,660). This is
because of current construction and other high-wage occupations.
Agricultural income in 1969, the year of census data collection,
caused some of the problems with income comparisons.
2
Detailed breakdowns of income by industry and local area
can be found in U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Busi-
ness, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
808
-------
TABLE 12-35:
PERCENTAGE OF INCOME DERIVED FROM ECONOMIC
SECTORS IN THE WESTERN REGION, 1972
Sector
Farm
Federal Government
Civilian
Federal Military
State and Local
Government
Manufacturing
Mining
Contract Construction
Transportation,
Communication, and
Utilities
Wholesale and Retail
Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate
Services
Other
U.S.
Average
3.3
4.5
2.5
11
26.9
1
6.3
7.3
16.4
5.4
15.1
0.3
U.S.
No n-me t ropo 1 i t an
Average
12.4
3.5
3.1
12.4
26
2.6
5.7
5.7
14.1
2.8
11.2
0.6
Colorado
4.2
6.3
5.2
11
15.9
1.8
Stew
Mexico
5.5
10.2
5.5
15.7
6.4
5.4
8.7 | 7.7
7.7
17.9
5.9
14.9
0.3
7.4
15.2
4.4
16.3
0.3
Utah
2,7
12.9
1.9
12
15.9
3.9
7.2
8.2
17.2
4.4
13.3
0.2
Arizona
3.5
5
4.5
12.3
15.1
4.2
4.6
6.1
16.4
5.9
16
0.4
Montana
19.7
5.8
2.9
11.9
9.9
2.9
6.8
8.9
15.4
3.7
11.7
0.3
North
Dakota
28.6
4.7
6.1
11
4.5
0.8
7.3
6.6
16.7
3.4
9.9
0.4
Wyoming
10.4
5.7
3.8
14.4
6.5
11.1
9.6
10.4
13.7
3.3
10.5
0.3
South
Dakota
29.6
5.4
3.5
12.1
7.7
1.1
10.7
5.8
15.5
3.5
10.6
0.4
00
o
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business.
Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75; and U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Personal Income by
Major Sources, 1971-73." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 55 (August 1974), pp. 38-41.
-------
activity are possible in some areas.1 However, other aspects of
the economy also would be altered from the expanded population,
income, and retail activity. For example, several cities in the
region can be expected to experience increased economic activity
because they are currently service centers in the vicinity of
energy development. Gillette, Wyoming, Farmington, New Mexico,
and Dickinson, North Dakota are likely to experience energy-
induced growth. Larger regional centers would benefit from both
wholesale and retail activity as well as more specialized ser-
vices. Atlhough not at the center of extensive energy resource
areas, such cities as Bismarck, North Dakota, Billings, Montana,
Caspar, Wyoming, and Grand Junction, Colorado would also experi-
ence increases in economic activity. Finally, regional manufac-
turing centers such as Denver, Pueblo, and Salt Lake City are
likely to be positively affected by western energy development,
particularly for manufactured goods which would be more expensive
if purchased from outside the West. Although some new centers
may develop,2 most economic benefits from the purchase of energy
development-related materials and equipment are expected to
accrue to the diversified manufacturing centers of other areas of
the nation, such as the industrial northeast. (More detail on
regional shifts may be found in the Materials Availability dis-
cussion, Section 12.4.8.)
Some manufacturing industries could develop around energy
conversion facilities, particularly the synthetic fuel plants
which produce various useful by-products. In part, this will
depend on such factors as economies of scale. For example, one
250 million cubic feet per day gasification plant will yield some
81,000 tons per year of naphtha. Processing this volume may not
be economical, but if several other gasification facilities are
also located nearby, "the volume of by-products produced by more
than one plant may result in the construction of plants near the
gasification complexes for processing them".3 Other factors,
however, such as transportation costs and pollution regulations,
may tend to prevent these large-scale industrial operations.
See, for example, Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal
Development in Eastern Montana. Bozeman, Mont.: University of
Montana, Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974, pp. 189-193.
2
For example, Bucyrus-Erie Co., a mining equipment concern,
has decided to build a plant in Pocatello, Idaho.
o
Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility
Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. III-2.
810
-------
D. Local Inflation
Price levels have always been higher in sparsely settled
areas, primarily for two reasons: transportation costs from
places of manufacture and lack of competition in small towns.
The only items with consistently lower prices are those produced
locally, such as meat in most western locations.
When isolated towns "boom", the demand for goods and ser-
vices increases, and prices rise and/or shortages occur. In
recent western boom towns, residents have expressed dissatisfac-
tion with the availability of certain items more often than
others, especially housing, land, and professional and retail
services.-1- Employers have also experienced a general shortage
of labor. However, the retailing sector tends to respond most
quickly and, in fact, local consumers eventually have access to
a greater variety of goods when larger, more specialized stores
are built.
Boomtown inflation affects different people in various ways.
Inflation will benefit sellers and increase costs for buyers.
For example, landowners will benefit if they sell, but renters
will suffer from higher rents. Depending on methods of property
taxation, landowners must pay taxes with higher assessed valua-
tions on their holdings. In the local labor market, employers
will suffer from increased wages while workers will benefit.
Increased wages will usually more than compensate for increased
prices, but some people, especially retirees, may not be in a
position to take advantage of the expanded labor market.
Local government also functions as a participant in the
local economy. As a buyer, it purchases mainly labor and must
compete with the energy developers. Since most taxes are based
on property assessments, revenues will eventually rise with the
general pace of inflation. However, assessments are often out
of date; thus, revenues may lag behind local governmental expen-
ditures. Increases in tax rates should not be necessary. In
fact, rates can be expected to decline in some areas after tax
revenues begin to outpace needs. Moreover, state law may specify
that land be assessed according to its value for its present use.
Thus, a rancher could experience substantial gains in the value
of his land due to its potential for urban development without
the land being reassessed for tax purposes.
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, B.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976.
2
Fiscal impacts on local government are considered in more
detail in the social, economic, and political section of Chapters
6-11.
811
-------
12.4.4 Public Services
A. Expenditures
Much of the development of energy resources in the West will
occur in sparsely populated areas. Small communities will face
greatly expanded demands for services. Some communities of less
than 5,000 people will increase their populations many times
over. Thus, large investments in public facilities will be
required, and operating expenses will be much higher than before
the boom. Public investments at the local level will be devoted
largely to water supply, sewage treatment, and school buildings
(Table 12-36).1 Altogether the Nominal case level of development
would necessitate local capital expenditures of about $2.4 bil-
lion by the end of the century, most of this between 1990 and
2000 when the annual rate of new investment is expected to
reach $184 million (over 10 times the 1975-1980 requirement).
This pattern is expected to hold for all the states in the study
area except New Mexico where construction activity is expected
to peak between 1975-1980.2
As noted above, local governments will also have to increase
their operating budgets. About 80 percent of the expenditures
shown in Table 12-37 will go for education. In other respects,
such as time phasing, operating expenditures follow the same
patterns as capital expenditures.
State governments will also face increased demands for ser-
vices but at a lower growth rate. Given the levels of energy
development analyzed here, the most rapid state-level population
growth can be expected in Wyoming: 3.22 percent compounded over
the 1990-2000 period. Since this rate will make it easier to
finance capital expenditures out of current revenues, capital and
operating costs are tabulated together here. Assuming that
state per-capita expenditures remain at present levels,3 new-
comers will induce new spending as reported in Table 12-38.
A consistent per capita figure is used in the evaluations
here to facilitate comparisons between states.
2
After 1980, much of the gas and oil production in the
southeastern portion of New Mexico is expected to close down,
according to this disaggregation of the Stanford Research Insti-
tute model. See Section 12.1.
As reported in U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. The Statistical Abstract of the United States. Wash-*
ington, D-C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. A constant per-
capita expenditure assumption is plausible because as population
rises, more services are provided, while economies of scale
allow states to provide them at a lower cost.
812
-------
TABLE 12-36:
LOCAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE NEEDS FOR NOMINAL
CASE DEVELOPMENT, 1975-2QQO
(millions of 1975 dollars)
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Six-States Total
Source: Caleulatit
Denver, Colo.: Tei
Rlateft, Inc. Impa
1975-1980
Water
and
Sewer
2.2
35. B
10.7
21.4
14.8
25.9
110. S
Schools'"
1.1
10.1
4
7.2
4.4
10.4
37.2
Total0
4.1
57.9
IB. 3
35.8
24.2
45
IBS. 3
1980-1985
Hater
and
Sewer
45. 6
0
2.5
52.4
20.9
18. «
140
>na based on data from Lindauer, R.L.
in Federation of Rocky Mountain Stat
Deration of Rocky Mountain States, 19
:t Analysis and Development Patterns
Schools'3
17,3
7.1
3.1
26.1
9.7
11.5
74,8
Total0
78.3
7.1
6.5
96.1
37.7
36.4
262.1
1985-1990
Water
and
Sewer
16. 5
0
3.8
22.1
17.7
8.2
68.3
Schools'1
10.5
0
0.8
13.4
7.9
6.2 .
3B.B .
Total0
32.6
0
5.9
42.9
31. t
17.2
130.2
1990-2000*
Mater
and
Sewer
358.1
40.8
44.6
236.8
226.4
177
1,083.7
Schools
129.6
16.7
17
87.7
70.7
65.6
387.3
Total
606.3
71.3
76.6
404.3
373.4
302.2
1,636.1
"Solutions to the Economic Impacts of Large Mineral Development on
es. Enemy Development in the Rockv Mountain Region: Goals and Concerns.
75, p. 64. Somewhat higher per capita estimates are in THK Asso-
Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study.
Denver, Colo.t THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.
*Hote 10-year period, whereas others shown are 5 years each.
bxt $2,500 per pupil.
^Including, on the average, 6.8 percent for recreation* 4.7 percent for £ire protection, 3.2 percent for law enforcement! 2.8
percent Cor health care, and 2.4 percent for libraries. Streets in new residential developments are assumed to be provided by
the developer. See T8K Associates* op. cit., p. 30.
TABLE 12-37:
ANNUAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
IN ENERGY AREAS OF SIX WESTERN STATES, 198CK2GQQ
FOR NOMINAL CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT3
(millions of 1975 dollars)
' Stat*
Colorado
New Kexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Six State* TOTAL
Total
1.2
19.7
•5.9
11. 8
8.2
14.3
£1.1
1980
Construction
Related
0.1
9.7
1.9
4.6
3.8
4
24.1
Total
26.4
17.9
7.J
40.7
19.7
24.6
136.6
19B5
Construction
Related
8.1
0.8
0.2
7.6
5.8
2.9
25.4
1990
Total
35.5
17. B
9.4
52.8
29.5
29.1
174.1
Construction
Related
6.9
0.7
1.6
6.4
7.7
1.2
24.5
2000
Total
233
42.2
34
183.5
154.4
126.7
773.6
Construction
Related
75.8
8.6
9.3
50.1
62.4
33.7
239.9
Based on a figure of $2,000 per pupil for school costs derived from data in Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconoiaic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Corcnittee. Socioeconoiilc Impacts and Federal Assistance in Enernv
pavglOBirent Impacted Communities In Federal Reoion VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains federal Regional Council, 1975.
S120 per capita for other governmental activities, based on data in THK Associates, Inc. impact Analysis and Devel-
°F°'nt Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry. Regional Development and Land Use StudvT~Denver. Colo, i THK Associates,
1V74, p. 30.Distribution of these costs is as followsistreets (25 percent), health care (14 percent), police
(7 percent), fire protection (12 percent), parks and recreation (6 percent), libraries (4 percent), administration
(10 percent), sanitation and sewage (10 percent), and other (12 percent).
813
-------
TABLE 12-38: ADDITIONAL ANNUAL CAPITAL AND OPERATING EXPENDITURES
OF STATE GOVERNMENTS, 1980-2000, NOMINAL CASE
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
(in millions of 1975 dollars)
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Six States Total
1980
Total
1.3
26
6.9
13.3
9.9
20.3
77.7
Construction
Related •
0.1
12.8
2.2
5.2
4.6
5.7
30.6
1985
Total
27.1
23.7
8.5
46
23.8
35
164.1
Construction
Related
8.3
1.1
0.3
8.6
7
4.1
29.4
1990
Total
36.4
23.5
11
59.7
35,7
41.5
207.8
Construction
Related
7.1
1
1.8
7.3
9.3
1.7
28.2
2000
Total
239
55.8
39.6
207.4
186.5
180.6
908.9
Construction
Related
77.7
11.3
10.8
56.6
75.4
48
279.8
As shown in this table, additional annual expenditures of over
$900 million will be required by 2000. This is roughly comparable
to the new expenses anticipated for local governments.
B. Revenues
If state governments tax individuals at current rates and
also incur current per-capita costs, new energy developments can
always be expected to provide a net surplus. This is because new
revenue from conventional sources 1 approximately balance new
costs while additional revenues will be available from special
energy taxes.2
The principal taxes currently levied on energy production
and conversion are summarized in Table 12-39. Applying these
rates to the projected numbers of facilities in each state gives
an estimate of energy-derived revenues (not counting conventional
sources such as personal income taxes) for a typical year (1990)
as shown in Table 12-40.
In the long run, state and local governments can be expected to
derive more funds from new revenues than they expend on new costs. The
only major exception is New Mexico, where new annual operating
expenditures of the state are expected to exceed new revenues by
Mainly income and excise taxes.
2
For example, Montana levies a 30-percent serverance tax on
coal mining.
814
-------
TABLE 12-39: TAX RATES ON ENERGY EXTRACTION AND CONVERSION
00
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Property
Taxb'c
1.37
1.21e
1.82
1.19e
1.489
1.52
Sales Tax
(percent)
3 1/2
4
4 3/4
4
4
Severance Tax
(percent)
5 *
30. 5*
5.0h
3.51
Energy Conversion Tax
0.4 ,mill per kilowatt
hour
0.25 mill per kilowatt
hpur and $0.10 per
thousand feet6
Source: Detailed sources and further explanations cited in the corresponding local
scenarios (Chapters 6-11).
aRoyalty payments for federally owned coal are 12.5 percent in all states, 50
percent of which is returned to the state and local government; on Indian Reserva-
tions, all royalties are retained by the tribe. Oil shale bonus bids of $84 million
per plant are relevant to Colorado and Utah, assuming a size of 100,000 barrels per
day per plant.
Percent of actual cash value; rates prevailing 'in those counties studied in local
scenarios (Chapters 6-11) .
cMostly to local government.
Mostly to state government.
eOff-reservation only.
52.3 percent state, 47.7 percent local'.
^Mines only.
40 percent local, 30 percent state, 30 percent saved.
xAs loans to local government; interest to state.
-------
TABLE 12-40:
STATE AND LOCAL TAXES ON ENERGY FACILITIES,
NOMINAL CASE DEVELOPMENT, 1990
(millions of 1975 dollars)
Receiving
Colorado
State
State for locald
Local
New Mexico
State
State for local
"Local
Indian
Otah
State
State for local
Local
Montana
State
State for local
Local
•Indian
North Dakota
State
State for lo^al
Local
Wyoming
State
State for local
Local
Region
State
State for local
Local
Indian
Severance
Taxesa
16.9
2.1
593.8
503
38.6
16.9
22
16.5
4.2
Oe
633.9
525
55.1
Mill
Levies
96.2
9.1
52.2
6.4
16.6
61.7
299.8
Coal
Royalties3*11
7.9
2.6
10.6
10.6
3.5
87.2
29.1
232 . 6
38.3
12.8
144
48
243.2
Sales and
Use Taxes0
32.2
5.4
1.9
2.1
.4
22.8
10.6
3.5
69.6
9.3
Conversion
Taxes
7.4
39.6
4.4
47
4.4
Total
57
2.6
101.6
11.4
9.1
10.6
12.7
3.5
52.6
681
532.1
102.6
232.6
79.3
22
37.5
53.1
12. 8e
£5.2
-894.5
573
368.6
243.2
Source: Table 12-39.
a&ssuming mine-mouth value of coal = $11.28/ton (1975 currency).
Assuming all coal in Utah federally owned, one-half of the coal in Colorado, Montana,
Wyoming, none in New Mexico, North Dakota. Also assuming one-half coal in Montana and
New Mexico on Indian reservations.
°Only on materials and equipment used in energy facility construction.
-------
a margin of $23.5 million to $11.4 million. The margin for local
government will be $27.8 million to $9.1 million.
There appear to be ample funds in each of the other states
to meet new service demands. However, the local scenarios (Chap-
ters 6-11) show that distribution problems will arise when popu-
lation-impacted jurisdictions do not contain the energy facili-
ties. In recognition of this problem, the "state-for-local"
lines in Table 12-40 show the funds collected at the state level
specifically for redistribution to impacted communities. Except
for Colorado and New Mexico, these funds are probably sufficient
to alleviate distributional problems.
Finally, Montana stands out from the other states in having
a particularly large surplus. In fact, of the $2.08 billion
likely to be collected in the six-state region, fully $1.55 bil-
lion is expected to be generated within Montana. Most of this will
come from the 30-percent coal mine license tax, which is much
higher than rates in any other state; Colorado has the next high-
est tax, which is 5 percent. Thus, there is at least the possi-
bility that some mining companies will choose to locate in other
states to avoid Montana's steep tax rate. In that case, the
state's projected revenue would not be realized.1
12.4.5 Land Use
Changes in land use can be expected to occur as a conse-
quence of the expected influx of population into the energy
resource areas of the West. In addition to the obvious increases
in urban land needs in cities and towns, some currently idle land
will be converted to productive uses. There will be competition
for level terrain for use as either cropland or urban develop-
ment. In some cases, there will also be competition for the
water being used for irrigation. For 53 sample counties in the
U.S., new urban land use per capita ranged from 0.097 to 0.481
acre from 1961 to 1970, with an average of 0.173 acre.2 Based on
this average, estimates of the new urban land expected to be
required by energy development in six western states are reported
in Table 12-41.
On the question of taxes and other state legislation, see
Christiansen, Bill, and Theodore H. Clack, Jr. "A Western Perspec-
tive on Energy: A Plea for Rational Energy Planning." Science,
Vol. 194 (November 5, 1976), pp. 578-84.
Zeimetz, Kathryn A., et al. Dynamics of Land Use in Fast
Growth Areas., Agricultural Economic Report No. 325. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Ser-
vice, 1976.
817
-------
TABLE 12-41:
NEW LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
AND URBAN LAND FOR NOMINAL CASE, 1980-2000a
(in acres and percent)
Year
Energy Facilities*3
Urban Land
Total
COLORADO
Garfield, Mesa, and Rio Blanco Counties
(6,118,400 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
5,600 ( 0.09%)
20,590 ( 0.34%)
29,725 ( 0.49%)
130,310 ( 2.13%)
312 (0.01%)
3,079 (0.05%)
5,986 (0.10%)
41,658 (0.68%)
5,912 ( 0.10%)
23,669 ( 0.39%)
35,711 ( 0.58%)
171,968 ( 2.81%)
Huerfano County Area
(1,007,360 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
28,000 ( 2.78%)
28,000 ( 2.78%)
28,000 ( 2.78%)
0
2,006 (0.20%)
2,006 (0.20%)
2,197 (0.22%)
0
30,006 ( 2.98%)
30,006 ( 2.98%)
30,197 ( 3.00%)
UTAH
Kane and Garfield Counties
(5,799,680 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
19,200 ( 0.33%)
24,000 ( 0.43%)
27,200 ( 0.47%)
27,200 ( 0.47%)
1,107 (0.02%)
1,858 (0.03%)
2,111 (0.04%)
2,214 (0.04%)
20,307 ( 0.35%)
36,668 ( 0.45%)
29,311 ( 0.51%)
29,614 ( 0.51%)
Uintah and Grand Counties
(5,228,160 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
3,300 ( 0.06%)
3,300 ( 0.06%)
18,780 ( 0.36%)
0
104 (0.00%)
104 (0.00%)
4,671 (0.09%)
0
3,404 ( 0.07%)
3,404 ( 0.07%)
23,451 ( 0.45%)
NEW MEXICO
San Juan, McKinley, and Valencia Counties
(10,630,400 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
42,200 ( 0.40%)
68,600 ( 0.65%)
98,400 ( 0.93%)
266,010 ( 2.50%)
1,090 (0.01%)
2,526 (0.02%)
3,564 (0.03%)
9,377 (0.09%)
43,290 ( 0.41%)
71,126 ( 0.67%)
101,964 ( 0.96%)
275,387 ( 2.59%)
818
-------
TABLE 12-41: (Continued)
Year
Energy Facilities^
Urban Land
Total
Lea, Eddy, Roosevelt, and Chavez Counties
(10,942,720 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
12,800 ( 0.12%)
12,800 ( 0.12%)
9,600 ( 0.09%)
0
1,713 (0.02%)
2,232 (0.02%)
1,194 (0.01%)
0
14,513 ( 0.13%)
15,032 ( 0.14%)
10,794 ( 0.10%)
0
MONTANA
Big Horn, Powder River, and Rosebud Counties
(3,542,720 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
124,800 ( 1.46%)
498,600 ( 5-73%)
672,805 ( 7.88%)
1,566,755 (18.34%)
2,006 (0.02%)
9,238 (0.11%)
12,940 (0.15%)
37,212 (0.44%)
126,806 ( 1.48%)
498,838 ( 5.84%)
685,745 ( 8.03%)
1,603,967 (18.76%)
NORTH DAKOTA
Dunn, Mercer, McLean, and Oliver Counties
(3,724,800 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
64,800 ( 1.74%)
97,200 ( 2.61%)
138,810 ( 3.73%)
434,506 (11.67%)
1,211 (0.03%)
2,422 (0.07%)
3,702 (0.10%)
14,636 (0.39%)
66,011 ( 1.77%)
99,622 ( 2.67%)
142,512 ( 3.83%)
449,142 (12.06%)
Billings, Bowman, Hettinger, McKenzie, Slope,
Stark, and Williams Counties
(6,901,120 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
0
64,800 ( 0-94%)
97,200 ( 1.41%)
236,055 ( 4.72%)
0
799 (0.01%)
2,387 (0.03%)
10,674 (0.15%)
0
65,579 ( 0.95%)
99,587 ( 1.44%)
336,729 ( 4.88%)
WYOMING
Campbell County
(3,043,840 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
172,400 ( 5.66%)
224,800 ( 7.39%)
294,800 ( 9.69%)
372,930 (18.82%)
2,457 (0.08%)
4,325 (0.14%)
5,571 (0.18%)
14,030 (0.46%)
174,857 ( 5.74%)
229,125 ( 7.53%)
300,871 ( 9.87%)
586,960 (19.28%)
819
-------
TABLE 12-41: (Continued)
Year
Energy Facilities^
Urban Land
Total
Johnson, Sheridan, Converse, Natrona, Carbon,
Fremont, and Sweetwater Counties
(28,070,400 acres)
1980
1985
1990
2000
9,900 ( 0.04%)
33,000 ( 0.12%)
42,900 ( 0.15%)
373,915 ( 1.33%)
415 (0.00%)
1,730 (0.01%)
2,214 (0.01%)
11,920 (0.04%)
10,315 ( 0.04%)
34,730 ( 0.12%)
45,114 ( 0.16%)
385,835 ( 1.37%)
Based on the following regional averaged land requirements:
underground coal mine (5 million tons per year)
surface coal mine (lifetime usage)
(5 million tons per year)
3,000-megawatts-electric plant
coal gasification plant
coal liquefaction plant
gas or oil production (100,000 barrels
per day)
uranium mine (surface)
uranium mill
oil shale mine (underground)
oil shale retort facility (100,000 barrels
per day)
5,600 acres
10,000
2,400
805
2,056
3,200
3,000
300
1,765
acres
acres
acres
acres
acres
acres
acres
acres
1,280 acres
.173 acre of land per-capita additional permanent population.
The estimates for energy facility land usage are high estimates based
on information in the S&PP-Radian Energy Resource development Systems
descriptions which will be distributed separately. The large
overall quantities of land result from the projections of the
Stanford Research Institute case (see Section 12.1).
As shown in that table, the energy facilities are the largest
consumers of land. In the Nominal case level of energy develop-
ment, by the year 2000 some areas in the Northern Great Plains
states of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming would have 11-19
percent of the land taken by energy facilities, most of it now
occupied by farms and ranches.! Reclamation, not considered in
The actual amount of land occupied by strip mines in the
West through 2000 will be lower than the projections analyzed
here, but the distribution will vary. Montana, for example, is
likely to have far fewer mines than our analyses assumed.
820
-------
these estimates, could considerably reduce the overall land
consumption. Land to be removed for such uses as rights-of-way and
new rural roads is not included in the amounts listed in Table 12-
41. The extent to which Indian lands will be included is not
known, but large amounts are likely to be used in New Mexico and
Montana.
12.4.6 Social and Cultural Effects
Agriculture and agricultural interests presently dominate
much of the eight-state area that will be affected by energy
resource development. The setting in the resource-rich parts of
the region is primarily rural, with any urban population being
limited to small towns. Local lifestyles and cultures associated
with this western setting are likely to be changed by circum-
stances related to energy development, particularly where old-
timers (i.e., natives) perceive themselves as being outnumbered
by newcomers who hold different values and have different inter-
ests. Over time, the values and attitudes of the newcomers to
the area could become dominant. The impact of projected large
population shifts is especially acute when distinctive ethnic
and/or religious groups are involved, such as Indians, Mexican-
Americans, and Mormons.
Many of these impacts can be discussed within the context
of social and cultural effects, or what is generally termed the
"quality of life" under the more general rubric of the "human
environment". In the past, economic indicators have often served
to measure well-being, but more attention has recently been
focused on other aspects.1 In general, a person's sense of well-
being will reflect his or her level of satisfaction with such
things as: amount of leisure time; recreation facilities and
opportunities for recreation; the quality of the physical envi-
ronment; housing; food; social services; opportunities for educa-
tion and training; personal safety and security; physical and
mental health; transportation opportunities; and level of house-
hold income. Although difficult to assess, many of these vari-
ables may be perceived in a comparative sense, such as between
neighbors or neighborhoods, or by comparing conditions in the
past or perceptions of opportunities in the future. All these
factors 'will likely be affected by energy development in the
Arguments for the need to include measures of social as
well as economic indicators of well-being received substantial
impetus from Bauer, Raymond, ed. Social Indicators. Cambridge,
Mass.: MIT Press, 1966 and from Olson, Mancur. Toward a Social
Report. Washington, D,C.: Government Printing Office, 1969.
For a more recent overall treatment of this idea, see U.S., Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency. The Quality of Life Concept; A
Potential Tool for Decision-Makers. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
821
-------
eight-state study area. However, different cultural groups will
perceive attributes in different ways.1 The lack of_acceptance
by many Indian nations of mining and similar activities is an
example of cultural differences.
Factors impacting the quality of life for each of the site-
specific scenarios (Chapters 6-11) and the nature of those
impacts are listed in Table 12-42.2 One of the_most important
variables in any estimation of quality of life impacts is the
ability of the local government in each area to plan adequately
for the various social, economic, and political impacts. The
capacity to plan and execute policies intended to address popula-
tion-related impacts resulting from energy development varies
throughout the West. For example, towns in North Dakota will
probably need to institute full-time rather than part-time govern-
ments to insure that adequate planning and administration will
continue. Conversely, our analysis of the Navajo/Farmington
scenario indicated that a substantial capacity for planning
exists but that local governments face potential revenue de'ficits.
The other scenarios depict localities which either lack the
resources or capacity to plan as well as to implement those-plans.
A succinct treatment of perceptual indicators of the qual-
ity of life can be found in Andrews, Frank M., and Stephen
Whitey, "Developing Measures of Perceived Life Quality,"
Social Indicators Research, Vol. 1 (May 1974), pp. 1-26. See
also Stagner, Ross. "Perceptions, Aspirations, Frustrations, and
Satisfactions: An Approach to Urban Indicators." Annals of the
American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 388
(March 1970), pp. 59-68.
2
This table and discussion are based on a paper prepared
for the Science and Public Policy-Radian team by Thomas James at
the Mershon Center, Ohio State University.
For a discussion of improving the quality of life through
improved planning, see Case, Fred. "Social Indicators for Policy
Planning," in Proceedings of the Urban and Regional Information
Systems Association Social Indicators Conference, Santa Monica,
California, 1974. Kent, Ohio: Kent State University, Center for
Urban Regionalism, 1974; Galnoor Itzhak. "Social Indicators for
Social Planning." Social Indicators Research, Vol. 1 (May 1974),
pp. 27-58; and Hauser, Phillip. "Social Goals as an Aspect of
Planning," Exhibit II, in U.S., Congress, Senate, Committee on
Government Operations. Full Opportunity and Social Accounting
Act. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Government Research on
S. 843, 90th Cong., 1st sess., Part 3, July 28, 1967, Appendix,
pp. 445-54.
822
-------
TABLE 12-42: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE QUALITY OF LIFE
oo
to
u>
Concern*
Population
Attitude
toward devel-
opment and
lifestyle
changes
Planning
Bousing
Scenario*
Xaiparovit*/
Escalant*
Static or declining
for 35 years. 250-
percent increase by,
2000.
In favor-good eco-
nomic opportunity.
Rural, single reli-
gion vs. more urban*
Kane. yea. Gar field,
no. Intergovern-
mental planning sys-
tem. Overall lack
resources to deal
effectively.
Use of mobile homes.
Mew town will absorb
roost of impact.
Kava^o/
Parraington
Generally increasing.
Large Navajo. segment.
•+25 percent by 1985
+85 percent by 1990.
+125 percent by 2000.
Some opposition from
Navajo* s. Challenges
to traditional val-
ues.
Substantial capacity,
Need is funds not
planning help.
Demand doubled by
1985. Extensive use
of mobile homes.
Rifle
Overall increase
in last decade,
Garfield County,
+150 percent by
2 bOO.
Stringent land
use controls.
Garfield favors.
Rio Blanco
opposes. Old-
t imers/newconiers
conflict likely
in short run.
Planning depart-
ments available.
Inadequate to
manage growth of
area.
Demand doubles
almost immedi-
ately. Growth
slower after
1980. Probably
use mobile homes*
Gillette
Growing steadily
since 1960. +600
percent by 2000.
Social segrega-
tion of field
workers. Die-
satisfaction
with mobile home
living. Old-
t ime r s/newcome r s
conflict.
City-county
cooperation.
Planning capa-
bility available
but political
problems lijnit
ability.
130 percent
increase by 1980.
Half of current
housing stock is
mobile homes.
Trend should
continue.
Colstrip
Increasing since
1970. +400 per-
cent by 2000,
Ranchers oppose
atrip mining. In
conflict with rec-
reationista. • Old-
timers trouble
accepting town
expansion.
Planning board
developing a mas-
ter plan.
attempting to pre-
vent unplanned
sprawl.
Doubles by late
1980' a and dou-
bles again in
1990's. Exten-
sive use of
mobile homes.
Bculah
Decreasing since
1950. Mercer, up and
down, +300 percent b)
2000. McLean gradual
increase then double
1995-2000.
In favor to stop out
migration. Difficult
for some fanners to
accept strip mining.
Compensation and
jobs welcomed.
County planning com-
mission. Beulah/
Hazen have capabil-
ities. May require
runtime government*.
Mercer, peaks and
valleys. Handled by
mobile home*.
-------
TABLE 12-42: (Continued)
oo
to
Concern*
Schools
Income
distribution
Revenue!
'(
Medical c»?«
Scenarios
Kaiparowita/
Escalant*
100-percent Increase
by 1990. Much of
area does net have
facilities currently
available.
Large relative
decrease in low
income families.
median income
becoming stable
about 1985.
Hot budget surplus.
Might be cash flow
problem for Garfield
County schoola.
Adequate to 1985
but will be hard to
maintain.
Navajo/
Famington
Students will double
by 1985. Could be
each flow problem.
Substantial increase
in poor families but
median income remains
about the same
(slight decrease) .
Nonreservation govern-
ments face potential
deficits Navajo situ-
ation ambiguous--
deficit by 1980 or
$149 million surplus
by 2000.
Already a problem
and likely to get
worse .
Rifle
In general not a
problem.
Increase in $12-
25,000 category.
Overall increase
in median income.
Local gqvernnents
will receive tax
benefits but
shoe tags of muni-
cipal service*
early in the
period.
Will need sizable
capital outlays
by 1980.
Gillette
Financial needs
will quadruple
by 2000.
$8-15.000 in
increase i over
$25.000 will
decrease by 11.5
percent.
Considerable
financial hard-
ship -through
1989 and again
after 1990.
Services
severely strained.
Medical care is
in particularly
* short supply.
Colstrip
Minor impacts
through 1965.
1985 through
1995 enrollments
double. No major
financial pinch.
$15-20.000 should
expand consider-
ably. General
upward trend in
median income.
Property and
won't provide
revenue until
construction is
over. Then more
than adequate.
Beulah
Needs can be met
through 1980 with
current facilities.
New classroom needs
will be small.
Overall increase of
SO percent in median
income by 2000.
Appear adequate
to yield net «ur- '
plus. .!
Considerable need
for capital expen-
ditures. Major
problem area.
-------
Since a substantial number of energy development-related
impacts on individuals' lives are viewed as being negative, such
developments can ultimately lead to a lowering of the quality of
life. In many areas of the West, about half the current housing
consists of mobile homes, and this trend will probably continue.
Indications are that dissatisfaction with mobile home living will
increase in conjunction with feelings of social segregation
experienced by some construction workers and their families.
The tension and stress precipitated by value and lifestyle con-
flicts between long-time residents and newcomers must also be
taken into account.1
The problems and conditions mentioned above are not insur-
mountable, and the impact of the population in-flow on the qual-
ity of life will largely depend on the ability of local govern-
ment and civic leaders to mobilize the long-time residents and
the newcomers in a concerted effort to address the problems of
concern to both groups. If this is not accomplished, or if
cogent planning is deterred by local infighting, the quality of
life of the people in the West can only be lowered.
Table 12-42 illustrates the variety of circumstances to be
found at particular locations. The western Colorado and north-
western New Mexico areas appear to have the most easily handled
types of problems. The major concern for western Colorado's oil
shale region is a "beefing up" of the available planning capa-
bilities so that a mechanism exists to deal with substantive
problems. The area will'have trouble delivering services during
the early time periods, but relief will come when local govern-
ments begin to receive tax revenues from energy-related develop-
ment. Some oldtimer/newcomer conflicts are to be expected in the
short run, along with some dissension over the use or non-use of
wilderness land. These and other problems could eventually
lower the quality of life in the area unless proper attention is
given to the impacts described.
The northwestern New Mexico area faces the possibility of
revenue deficits for non-reservation governments, but substan-
tial planning capacity to meet this problem is available. If
any of the scenario areas can handle the problems associated
i
On quality of life issues related to the influx of new
populations, see Wheaton, I..C,, and M.F. Wheaton. "Identifying
the Public Interest: Values and Goals," in Robinson, Ira, ed.
Decision Making in Urban Planning. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage,
1972; and Hansen, George. "Information for Decision-Makers," in
Proceedings of the Urban and Regional Information Systems Asso-
ciation Social Indicators Conference, Santa Monica, California,
1974. Kent, Ohio: Kent State University, Center for Urban
Regionalism, 1974.
825
-------
with the possibility of insufficient revenue for complete service
delivery, northwestern New Mexico should be the one. Compared
to its experience with prior developments, Farmington should not
experience much of an impact on its quality of life. Most of
the impact will be felt by the Navajo reservation. Opposition
to energy development is voiced by some Navajos because of the
associated challenge to traditional values and living patterns.
The overall standard of living of the Navajo would be increased
through higher incomes, better housing and services, etc. On
the other hand, raising the standard of living of the Navajo
does not necessarily mean that their perceived overall quality
of life is also enhanced. Nevertheless, the potential exists
for a substantial segment of the area's population to increase
their level of well-being, while the rest should at least be
able to maintain their present levels of life quality. (Policy
issues related to Indians are discussed at length in Section 14.5.)
The Southern Utah and North Dakota areas offer the best
chance of energy development having a positive impact on the
quality of life of area residents. Of the two, Southern Utah
presents more serious problems. The major problem will be the
conflict between the lifestyles of the rural Mormon residents
and the more urban lifestyles of newcomers. A potential problem
also stems from physical and visual pollution that could result
in a negative economic impact by decreasing tourism in the area.
Since over the long run revenues can be expected to provide a
net budget surplus and housing and schools present no real prob-
lems (except a possible cash flow problem with the school
systems), local of ficials can put most of their attention toward
long-range planning for the area.
Likely energy development in the lignite-bearing area of
North Dakota suggests a set of conditions where an increase in
population will have a positive impact on the quality of life.
The attitudes of the people now living in the area toward the
energy development projects are favorable. Population has been
decreasing since 1950, and energy development is viewed as a way
to stop out-migration and bring new people into the area, includ-
ing former residents of North Dakota who left for economic
reasons. The removal of farmland from production and the con-
version to strip mining will be difficult for some farmers to
accept, but economic compensation as well as the creation of new
jobs will be welcomed.
The Powder River Basin of Wyoming seems to have the highest
potential in the West for an overall negative impact on its
residents' quality of life. For example, Campbell County has
been growing steadily since 1960, a 600-percent increase in
population is anticipated between 1975 and 2000. The capability
to plan for this increase exists but may not be used. Financial
problems through 1985 and again after 1990 will put a severe
826
-------
strain on the services provided by local governments. The
Gillette, Wyoming, area also has been documented as the site of
child abuse and neglect on a large scale.^
In summary, the quality of life depends on reactions of
people to their problems as well as on the problems themselves.
Thus, more than any other factor in western energy development,
quality of life is largely unaffected by mitigating measures
from outside sources. Local activity, planning, and cooperation
are among the most influential factors in quality of life assess-
ments .
12.4.7 Political Impacts^
Although the population increases projected for this regional
scenario are not large in most cases until the 1990-2000 decade,
population growth in some states during that time will probably
result in political changes. The populations of Montana, North
Dakota, and Wyoming particularly will increase by as much as 50
percent. Much of the increase will arise from interregional
migration. If the partisan preferences of newcomers to the
region differ substantially from those of the natives, the par-
tisan character of the entire region may shift.3 Similarly, if
the influx of newcomers changes the demographic composition of
the region, the level of political participation may change as
well.
The impact of construction workers on the region will differ
substantially from that of operation and maintenance personnel.
Construction workers will have the most immediate effect on the
region. They will strain the medical, housing, recreation, and
service facilities of the individual communities in the site
area, which may call on the state and federal government for
assistance. However, since the majority of construction workers
Richards, Bill. "Western Energy Rush Taking Toll Among
Boom Area Children." Washington Post, December 13, 1976, pp- 1, 4.
2
This section is based on a paper prepared for the Science
and Public Policy-Radian Research Team by Allyn Brosz, Research
Assistant, Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma.
Bone, Hugh A., and Austin Ranney. Politics and Voters.
New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1976; Campbell, Angus, et al. The
American Voter. New York, N.Y.: Wiley, 1960, pp. 37-38. His-
torically, interregional migration has shifted the partisan
loyalties of the western United States from heavily Democratic
to bipartisan.
827
-------
are transients and many currently live in the region, they will
probably not have any lasting political impact.-"•
Operation and maintenance personnel will follow the con-
struction workers and will have a more definite political impact
because they will reside in the region on a long-term basis.
Selected characteristics of the operations and maintenance
workers can be summarized from the reports on individual energy
production/conversion sites as follows: they are highly skilled
in the technical and managerial fields needed to operate the
energy production facilities; their income is above the median
level for all individuals; and they are mostly between 30 and 60
years old. These characteristics are important in assessing the
political impact of energy development because they are gensrally
associated with a high level of involvement in politics.2 Thus,
operations and maintenance workers are more likely to become
involved in community affairs than other groups. They will seek
offices in the local government and in school, church, and civic
groups.3 If successful, these individuals are likely to use
their leadership roles to guide the community's development
according to their own values and priorities.
12.4.8 Materials and Equipment Availability
In obtaining the materials and equipment needed to develop
energy resources in the western U.S., developers must compete
with the materials and equipment needs of other regions and other
industries. There is some question as to whether all of these
needs can be met, particularly in the case of such items as
large pressure vessels and draglines. The Environmental Protection
/
Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976.
o
Lipset, Seymour Martin. Political Man. Garden City,N.Y.:
Doubleday, 1960, p. 184; see also Pomper, Gerald. Voters'
Choice. New York, N.Y.: Dodd Mead, 1975, Chapter 3; Flanigan,
William H. Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 2nd
ed. Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, 1972.
There is a considerable body of literature available con-
cerning the struggle for community power. The various theories
are summarized in Keynes, Edward, and David M. Ricci, eds.
Political Power, Community, and Democracy. Chicago, 111.: Rand
McNally, 1970. Coleman, James S. Community Conflict. New York,
N.Y.: Free Press, 1957, is a dated but useful treatment of con-
flict in relatively small communities. Coleman says that citi-
zens with a strong loyalty to the community are more likely to
search for compromises than those with only a moderate commit-
ment. See also Mayer, Robert R. Social Planning and Social
Change. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972.
828
-------
Agency's Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) was
used to investigate this question.1 Assumptions within the SEAS
model differ somewhat from those used by SRI and Bechtel in the
interfuel competition and energy planning models discussed
earlier. Consequently, no attempt was made to relate findings
to the three SRI cases.
Two analyses were made using SEAS: the first called for
expanded western energy development and, for comparative pur-
poses, the second did not. The run simulating expanded develop-
ment in the West provides for a level corresponding to SRI's
High Demand case. This level was selected because the SEAS
model only extends to 1985, whereas the major impacts of regional
development are predicted by the SRI model to occur during the
1990-2000 decade. Thus, a higher demand case was chosen to
expose possible problem areas which can be examined more closely
using longer range modeling during the second and third years.
In the period to 1985, only three kinds of developments
were considered as generating new economic activity: coal
mining, coal-fired electrical generation, and uranium mining.
Other energy development is not expected on a large scale before
1985, even in SRI's High Demand case. The assumed increments of
production beyond 1975 levels are as shown in Table 12-43.
These increments have been added to the final demands of
the respective industries. SEAS calculated the range of goods
and services each industry will purchase to carry on at the
expended levels of production, the bills of goods coming from
each of the supplying industries (for example, power shovel
manufacturers buying steel), etc. Sectoral outputs for each of
the two cases were then compared, and the net result of all
economic "ripples" was determined.
Note that this analysis adds various amounts of western
energy production to an economy which in other respects is
carrying on "business as usual". If western energy was hypo-
thesized to replace, rather than supplement, other energy sup-
plies, then further analysis would be needed to describe the
process of interfuel substitution. Moreover, SEAS treats all
this development on a national scale, making no distinctions
For a summary description of SEAS, see Booz, Allen and
Hamilton, Inc. Strategic Environmental Assessment System, Exec-
utive Summary, for U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.
Bethesda, Md.: Booz, Allen and Hamilton, 1975. Briefly put,
SEAS uses the input-output methodology to trace the ultimate
economic effects o*f specified forces. Other components of the
model, not used here, derive conclusions about environmental
impacts.
829
-------
TABLE 12-43:
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
WEST ASSUMED IN SEAS SIMULATION
Type of Energy
Production
Coal-Generated
electricity
Coal Mining
(export)
Uranium Miningc
1975 National
Production
3.324 Qa
$5.72 billionb
$1.05 billion
1985 Western
Increment
.683 Q
$1.14 billion
$1.05 billion
1985 Western
Increment
1.243 Q
$2.91 billion
$2.53 billion
Quadrillions of British thermal units (1C)15) .
All money figures in 1971 currency.
Q
These demands added to the category of nonf errous , noncuprous
metal ores.
about the location of economic activity. ^ Finally, this analysis
only extends backwards in the industrial chain (from the mining
company to its vendors, etc.). The analysis answers the question
"what materials and equipment must be produced to achieve the
western energy development called for by the high demand regional
scenario?" but does not trace the disposition of such energy.
For example, coal exported from the region will be burned by
utilities, by steel companies, by Canadians and Japanese, etc.
Except for the run performed to trace such effects as far as
electricity generation (reported below) , energy consumption was
excluded. 2
A. Economywide Variables
Certain variables summarize the overall pace of economic
activity in the nation. Of these "macro economic" variables, the
ones most strongly affected by western energy are shown in Table
12-44.
To simulate .increased western production within the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System, the coal mining/rail transport
coefficient was boosted by a factor of 1.84 to reflect the longer
haul to eastern markets. This had the effect of increasing sup-
ply from western sources.
o
''Railroad transportation was included, even though it
occurs "downstream" of mining, industrially speaking, due to a
quirk of "the Strategic. Environmental Assessment System. In point of
fact, the impact on railroads will be substantial.
830
-------
TABLE 12-44: ECONOMIC VARIABLES MOST AFFECTED
BY ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Economic
Category
Unemployment Rate
(percentage)
Inventories
(billions of dollars)
Equipment Investment
(billions of dollars
Construction Investment
(billions of dollars)
1980
Base
Case
4.67
17.59
153.6
116.2
Energy
Development
Case
4.30
18.14
155.1
117.2
Percent
Difference
-7.91
+ 3.10
+0.96
+0.84
1985
Base
Case
4.11
10.85
161.9
129.8
Energy
Development
Case
3.58
11
163.5,
131.3
Percent
Difference
-12.77
+ 1.39
+ 0.97
+ 1.13
00
U)
Source: Strategic Environmental Assessment System, Environmental Protection Agency.
-------
In proportional terras, the unemployment rate will be the
most strongly affected variable. The High Demand case could
reduce the national rate by 0.5 percentage points by 1985 (over
what it otherwise would be). However, the two cases were modeled
so as to make western development an "autonomous" increase in
aggregate demand. In reality, such development would recruit
many workers from other industries, not just from the ranks of
the unemployed.l
Most equipment purchases are accounted for directly by
mining industries, most construction directly by electric util-
ities. The sectors most strongly affected by induced changes
will be the railroad industry and its suppliers. These effects
are discussed below in the analysis of impacts on specific
sectors of economic activity.
B. Industry Outputs
Whereas western energy development can be expected to
increase Gross National Product, by about 0.5 percent, certain
sectors-^ are likely to respond much more than others. The
largest changes can be expected to occur in those sectors repre-
senting the actual western energy development. Together with
feedback effects, these are postulated to grow as follows by
1985s other nonferrous ores due to uranium mining by 148.5 per-
cent? coal mining by 47.2 percent; and electric utilities by 8.9
percent. The output of these three industries in 1985 would be
$13.3 billion (1971 currency) greater under the High Demand case
than it would be in 1985 under the Base case. The model calcu-
lates that, as a result of this impulse, $21.8 billion of out-
puts would be induced in other sectors. The sector groupings
that would be most strongly affected are transportation (+3.93
percent) and non-electric utilities (+2.19 percent). Manufac-
turing as a whole would grow 0.76 percent larger than it other-
wise would by 1985. However, particular sectors would experience
considerably greater stimulus, as detailed in Table 12-45.
With expanded energy development in the West, the railroad
industry can be expected to grow 16 percent larger than it other-
wise would by 1985. Together with its equipment manufacturers,
the industry must supply an output greater by $4.9 billion. In
Looked at from the manpower point of view, employment rates
will be less affected than unemployment. By 1985, employment
would differ by about 560,000 jobs, which is only 0.5 percent of
the aggregate. Details on skilled occupations may be found in
Section 12.4.9.
2
Strategic Environmental Assessment System classifies the
economy into 185 sectors.
832
-------
In proportional terms, the unemployment rate will be the
most strongly affected variable. The High Demand case could
reduce the national rate by 0.5 percentage points by 1985 (over
what it otherwise would be). However, the two cases were modeled
so as to make western development an "autonomous" increase in
aggregate demand. In reality, such development would recruit
many workers from other industries, not just from the ranks of
the unemployed.1
Most equipment purchases are accounted for directly by mining
industries, most construction directly by electric utilities.
The sectors most strongly affected by induced changes will be the
railroad industry and its suppliers. These effects are discussed
below in the analysis of impacts on specific sectors of economic
activity.
B. Industry Outputs
Whereas western energy development can be expected to impact
the economy as a whole to the extent of about 0.5 percent (mea-
sured against Gross National Product), certain sectors^ are
likely to respond much more than others. The largest changes can
be expected to occur in those sectors representing the actual
western energy development. Together with feedback effects,
these are postulated to grow as follows by 1985: other nonfer-
rous ores by 148.5 percent; coal mining by 47.2 percent; and
electric utilities by 8.9 percent. The output of these three
industries in 1985 would be $13.3 billion (1971 currency) greater
under the High Demand case than it would be in 1985 under the
Base case The model calculates that, as a result of this
impulse, $21.8 billion of outputs would be induced in other
sectors. The sector groupings that would be most strongly
affected are transportation (+3.93 percent) and non-electric util-
ities (+2.19 percent). Manufacturing as a whole would grow 0.76
percent larger than it otherwise would by 1985. However, par-
ticular sectors would experience considerably greater stimulus,
as detailed in Table 12-45.
With expanded energy development in the West, the railroad
industry can be expected to grow 16 percent larger than it other-
wise would by 1985. Together with its equipment manufacturers,
the industry must supply an output greater by $4.9 billion. In
Looked at from the manpower point of view, employment rates
will be less affected than unemployment. By 1985, employment
would differ by about 560,000 jobs, which is only 0.5 percent of
the aggregate. Details on skilled occupations may be found in
Section 12.4-9.
Strategic Environmental Assessment System classifies the
economy into 185 sectors.
833
-------
TABLE 12-45:
DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUTS BETWEEN BASE
CASE AND HIGH ENERGY DEMAND CASE,
INDUSTRIES MOST AFFECTED, 1980 and 1985
Industrial
Category
Railroads
Railroad equipment
Transformers and
switchgear
Engines and
turbines
Construction
machinery
Natural gas
Bearings
Water transport
Industrial
controls
Pumps and
blowers
1980
Percent
Change
7.56
7.50
4.46
3.28
2.55
2.52
2.02
1.92
1.87
1.79
Dollar
Change
(millions)
1,690
406
248
260
247
540
51
66
54
92
1985
Percent
Change
15.92
15.91
3.86
4.10
4.49
2.79
3.50
3.62
1.98
2.17
Dollar
Change
(millions)
4,020
859
259
404
460
640
100
128
64
114
Source: Strategic Environmental Assessment System, Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
light of the chronic difficulties which have plagued railroads,
it will be difficult for them to expand to meet this requirement.
A few companies would probably handle most of the new traffic:
Burlington-Northern, Chicago and Northwestern, Union Pacific,
Denver and Rio Grande Western, and Sante Fe. (Transportation is
discussed in more detail in Section 12.9.)
Substantial new supplies of mining and earth-moving machinery
must be produced to support the mining activities required by
expanded energy production. A variety of "nuts and bolts" indus-
tries, such as ball and roller bearings, machine shops, etc.
would also be affected. While the effect does not seem large on
the aggregated level, bottlenecks may occur with special products.
For example, the steel industry would be expected to grow only
2.2 percent larger than the Base case by 1985, but the subsector
834
-------
of steel foundries (representing about 2 percent of the whole
sector) would have to increase by 10.2 percent. Within the
foundry subsector, only a few firms can make items like large
pressure vessels. The result could be extended backlogs and con-
struction delays for particular items.
Large pressure vessels exemplify the kinds of bottlenecks
which may occur. While "numerous nuclear reactors and petroleum
vessels have been constructed in these heavier thicknesses"!
(13-inch steel walls), many coal conversion vessels will be the
heaviest pressure vessels ever built—up to 3,000 tons. Also,
technological problems may arise, as well as backlogs in material
supplies. For example, heavy plates are only available from one
domestic source and two foreign sources.
Finally, the natural gas industry would be noticeably
impacted, to the extent of 1.36 billion cubic feet per day greater
demand more under the the High Demand case in 1985. (All this
production is induced in support of other sectors, rather than
being assumed in the scenario definition. Thus, some apprecia-
tion is gained of the fact that "it takes energy to get energy.")
C. Capital Investment
Generally speaking, those industries which would be called
on for the largest expansion of output are those which must
expand their capital base the most. In proportional terms, the
industries which must accelerate their rate of investment the
most^ in 1985 are: railroads (20.3 percent), railroad equipment
(12.5 percent), engines and turbines (5.6 percent), electric
instruments and transformers (4.4 percent), and general indus-
trial machinery (2.5 percent).
For the economy as a whole, more than $1..5 billion in new
investment in 1985 would be induced by the High Demand case (not
counting mining and utilities). In terms of absolute amounts,
the most affected industries would be: railroads ($659 million),
communication ($120 million), finance and insurance ($80 mil-
lion) , iron and steel ($41 million), and construction ($41 mil-
lion) . Most of these sectors would be basic to any expansion of
economic activity.
Hicklen, William. "The Construction of Coal Conversion
Vessels." in Papers! Clean Fuels from Coal Symposium II. Chi-
cago, 111.: Institute of Gas Technology, 1975, pp. 795-816.
2
This is measured as the difference between the levels of
development in annual rate of new investment.
/
835
-------
D. Geographic Distribution of Impacts
SEAS can be used to determine where these activities will
take place. In making this determination, each region is assumed
to change its share of each industry's national output in accor-
dance with OBERS projections.1 Major shifts of activity, such as
coal mining moving westward, are not assumed by such forecasts.
Certain regions grow faster than others mainly because they con-
tain faster growing industries.
SEAS' regionalization module for a sample of 16 metropolitan
areas shows that four would be particularly affected (on a pro-
portional basis): Birmingham, Alabama; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania;
Salt Lake City, Utah; and Duluth-Superior, Minnesota-Wisconsin.
Birmingham's total output would be 4.02 percent greater by 1985,
compared to a national average impact of 1.13 percent.2
Each of the other impacted cities can be expected to grow
via varying combinations of industries. The largest components
of growth are shown in Table 12-46.
E. Electricity Impacts
As described to this - point, the analysis considers only the
fate of coal and uranium transported as raw resources. But most
of these materials would ultimately be used in the production of
electricity.3 TO obtain some indication of the consequences of
fuel consumption, SEAS was run with a third scenario which adds
enough electrical generation to the Base case to consume the
mined fuels. SEAS then implicitly attributes the appropriate
rates of mining activity, transportation, etc. However, in con-
trast to the High Demand case described above, SEAS also calcu-
lates the total requirements of a significantly expanded utility
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
and Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 1972
OBERS Projections: Economic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4:
States, for the U.S. Water Resources Council. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.
2
Each of these cities will grow for different reasons. Salt
Lake's case seems to be spurious: two-thirds of their growth is
caused by "other nonferrous" (and noncuprous) ores. This indus-
try was augmented externally to model uranium mining, but the
Salt Lake area produces many "other" metals as by-products of
copper mining. For example, the Bingham copper mine qualifies
as the nation's second largest gold mine by virtue of the extrac-
tion of that "impurity".
3
Electricity generation has been considered above only to
the extent that conversion takes place within the West.
836
-------
TABLE 12-46: LOCATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH INDUSTRIES
Location
(Millions of Dollars)
Growth
Birmingham, Alabama
Railroad equipment
Steel
Wholesale trade
Structural metal products
Cement, gypsum
All sectors
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Steel
Railroad equipment
Wholesale trade
Structural metal products
Construction and mining equipment
All sectors
Duluth-Superior, Minnesota-Wisconsin
Iron mining I
Steel
Construction and mining equipment
Wholesale trade
Railroad equipment
All sectors
$91.2
16.9
4.1
3.3
1.1
$129
$99
53.3
12
6.2
4.4
$215
$12.6
2.2
1
0.6
$20.5
industry.
follows:
Specifically, electricity demands were assumed as
Electricity by coal
Electricity by uranium
1980,
Quadrillion Btu
1.93
1.68
1985,
Quadrillion Btu
4.11
4.07
The results of SEAS' analysis of this third case indicate
that electrical generation would have larger impact on the econ-
omy than mining, transportation, and mine-mouth generation. About
$37.6 billion of outputs would be induced in 1985, as compared to
$17.8 billion in the "all western" scenario.
An examination of the industries most affected (Table 12-47)
shows a greater representation of electrical-oriented sectors,
837
-------
TABLE 12-47:
DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUTS BETWEEN BASE CASE
AND HIGH ENERGY DEMAND WITH ELECTRICAL
GENERATION, INDUSTRIES MOST AFFECTED, 1985
Industry
Transformers and
switchgear
Railroad equipment
Railroads
Engines and turbines
Pottery
Structural metal
products
Nonferrous wire drawing
Lighting and wiring
equipment
Industrial controls
Construction and mining
equipment
Increase in Output
(millions of dollars)
1,383
840
3,900
1,284
122
1,800
496
674
221
620
Percent
Change
20.61
15.55
15.44
13.10
9.30
7.97
7.91
6.94
6.85
6.13
SOURCE: Strategic Environmental Assessment System, Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
even of "pottery", which apparently reflects the need for ceramic
insulators. The railroad sector shows almost exactly the same
effect as in the previous cases.
12.4.9 Personnel Resources Availability
The question of personnel availability is addressed primarily
on the regional and national levels because it is unlikely that
local communities in the West will be able to fill the skilled
positions required by the energy technologies.1 The unskilled
positions could largely be met locally but these would hardly
lead to bottlenecks in any case. From the manpower supply point
In a recent survey, 73.9 percent of the professional, tech-
nical, and supervisory workers were found to be of non-local
origin. See Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile,
Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,
1976, p. 19.
838
-------
of viewf the critical question is whether rapid energy development
could be delayed by a nationwide shortage of key skilled person-
nel.
A. Levels of Development
As with the analysis of financial resources, the overall
pace of development is considered first. Manpower needs are
based on the SRI Nominal case projection and on the technical
and skilled manpower resources for standard-size facilities as
detailed in the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.1 Taking a
3,000-MWe (megawatts-electric) mine-mouth power plant as an
example, operation and maintenance will require a work force of:
24 engineers C16 electrical, 8 mechanical), 4 draftsmen, 56 super-
visors, 240 skilled tradesmen (80 equipment operators, 80 welders,
48 electricians, and 32 pipefitters), and 112 relatively unskilled
workers.
B. Operations
The total number of workers required for operating the num-
bers of plants in the Nominal case detailed by skill category,
is listed in Table 12-48. In terms of supply, the most readily
available source of labor would be those workers filling similar
positions in similar industries. If this source is orders of
magnitude greater than western energy requirements, then western
development should have relatively little impact in the labor
market. On the other hand, if needs are large in comparison to
supply, then other industries must be raided, workers upgraded,
standards lowered, etc.
This analysis is focused on the next decade because almost
any degree of demand could be met by specific training, within
10 years.2 Although special provisions might be required for
schools, apprenticeship programs, etc., supply would not be abso-
lutely constrained by the current skill distribution beyond about
1985.
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. MenlcrPark, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976; Carasso, M., et al. The Energy
Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corpora-
tion, 1975.
2
A recent environmental impact statement which detailed the
'qualifications of the labor"force indicated no more than 10 years
experience is required for any of the positions. See U.S. , Depart-
ment of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environ-
mental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols.
Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976.
839
-------
TABLE 12-48:
DEMAND FOR SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL
PERSONNEL, WESTERN REGION, POST-1975
FACILITIES (operation and maintenance)
Occupation
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total Engineers
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers
Carpenters
Welders
Operatives
Underground Miners
Other Skills
and Crafts
Total Skills and
Crafts
All Technical,
Managerial, and
Skilled
1980
150
90
90
10
60
400
130
1,680
890
2,700
260
1,240
700
3,600
2,610
4,440
,12,850
15,950
1985
30
0
270
180
210
30
160
880
290
3,390
1,950
5,630
530
2,500
20
60
1,360
8,590
4,920
10,670
28,650
35,160
1990 .
200
30
390
320
370
70
280
1,660
490
5,670
3,490
9,650
1,020
4,180
130
20
2,090
16,400
9,540
20,460
53,840
65,350
2000
1,500
300
800
900
900
200
700
5,300
1,200
12,200
8,700
22,100
3,900
9,400
1,000
1,400
4,900
50,100
22,400
60,600
153,700
181,100
SOURCE: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model.
San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet",
Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study;
Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford
Research Institute, 1976.
840
-------
The 1970 census report on "Occupations by Industry" was
consulted to determine .the characteristics of the labor force in
the mining and utility industries. The 1985 personnel require-
ments, expressed as a percentage of this readily available pool,
are indicated in Table 12-49. As shown in that table, labor
requirements for developing western energy resources could range
up to about 12 percent in some of the occupational categories,
but for most occupations the demand would be less than 3 percent
of available supply. The 11.9 percent indicated for operatives
may actually be less because some 100,000 workers were deducted
from this category and classified as "underground miners". Reso-
lution of this question must await the collection of more detailed
data.
Western energy may tighten the markets for technicians,
mining engineers, and welders, with 1985 demand exceeding 8 per-
cent of the readily available labor pool in each case. The tech-
nician category consists mainly of surveyors, instrumentation
people, and chemical laboratory people.
Western development may noticeably raise salaries, perhaps
as much as 20 percent. It may also provide the opportunity for
further unionization in the West. Some skilled technicians
(e.g., welders) can be easily transferred from other industries,
while those such as mining engineers must take college courses
and gain specific job experience over several years. Some move-
ment toward mining engineering can already be detected.^
As noted previously, the major long-term limitation is not
the current shape of the labor force but the training programs
which are or are not instituted. In particular, the 1985-2000
period will bring very rapid increases in the demand for chemical
and civil engineers, boilermakers, and carpenters. Clearly, new
engineers must, at some point, go jthrough a college curriculum,
some all the way through advanced degrees. Conversely, skilled
manual trades are learned primarily by "hands on" experience.
Therefore, the former can be promoted via student scholarships
and grants to colleges2 and the latter through simulated mines
The Bureau of Mines reports that college enrollments in that
field have risen 22 percent in the past year., Poe, Edgar.. uln
Washington." Coal Mining and Processing, Vol., 13 CApril 19761,
pp. 39-42.
2In the 94th Congress, a bill (S62) to provide 1,5QQ "energy
resource graduate fellowships" for each of the next 5 years was
introduced. Bureau of National Affairs^ "Coal: Administration
Witnesses Oppose University Labs, Energy Resource Fellowships,11
Energy User*s Report, Current Developments No., 117 CNovember 6,
m
>),
1975), pp. A-34 through A-40.
841
-------
TABLE 12-49:
1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR
OPERATIONAL LABOR AS PERCENTAGE
OF 1970 NATIONAL MARKET3
Occupation
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Geological"3
Mechanical
Mining
Other
Total Engineers
Draftsmen
Supervisors-
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Pipefitters6
Electricians^
Boilermakers
Carpenters
Welders9
Underground Miners"
Operatives1
Other Skills and
Crafts
Total skills and
• Crafts
1985
Western
Demand"0
30
0
270
30
180
210
160
880
290
3,390
1,950
5,630
530
2,500
20
60
1.360
4,920
8,590
10,670
28,650
1970
Supply0
5,800
1,300
18,600
2,100
4,400
2,500
4,100
38,800
8,200
48,100
18,400
74,700
10,500
100,200
1,400
8,000
16,400
112,100
72,300
226,700
547,600
Percentage
0.5
0
1.5
1.4
4.1
8.4
3.9
2.3
3.5
7
10.6
7.5
5
2.5
1.4
0.8
8.3
4.4
11.9
.4.7
5.2
This table tabulates the number of workers in the following
census industry categories: mining, excluding oil and gas
production; privately-owned electric utilities; and petroleum
refining.
Source: Table 12-48.
°Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Table 8.
Census category:, geologists.
eCensus category: plumbers and pipefitters.
Census category: electricians and linemen.
"census category: welders and flamecutters.
Census categories: blasters and powdermen, butting
operatives, earth drillers, mine operatives N.E.C., motormen.
1Nontransport operatives, excluding distinctly mining
categories.
842
-------
and other such specially designed facilities.1 In short,
foreseeable -labor requirements can he met but some will require
expanded training programs, union cooperation, etc.
C. Construction
The same basic methodology was used in the analysis of con-
struction requirements. The census categories of "general con-
tractors except buildings" and "special trades contractors,
salaried employees" were used because they correspond roughly to
what is generally known as "heavy construction". On the demand
side, the Bechtel data base indicates the number of construction
workers needed in each year leading up to the completion of each
energy facility. For simplicity, the average number of workers
in each year of major construction activity was multiplied by the
number of plants in that phase at any given time. The total
numbers employed in selected years are given in Table 12-50.
When 1985 demands are compared with the size of the con-
struction labor force (Table 12-51), potential shortages of
mining engineers, boilermakers, and chemical engineers are even
greater than the projected problems with operation and mainte-
nance personnel.
For example, Tillman, David A. "Peabody Training Center
Simulates Real Underground Conditions." Coal Mining and Proces-
sing, Vol. 12 (December 1975), pp. 62-67.
843
-------
TABLE 12-50:
DEMAND FOR SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL
PERSONNEL, WESTERN REGIONAL
(construction workers)
Occupation
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total Engineers
Technicians
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Skilled Trades
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers
ironworkers
Carpenters
Operating
Engineers
Welders
Other Skills
and Crafts
Total Skills
and Crafts
All Technical,
Managerial, and
Skilled
1980
30
740
450
410
100
40
70
1,840
900
430
1,870
3,200
2,640
1,780
1,620
1,120
1,060
1,790
1,640
1,150
12,800
17,840
1985
270
970
580
700
190
80
200
2,990
1,720
710
2,980
5,410
5,660
2,500
1,600
1,430
1,760
2,870
2,480
1,440
19,740
28,140
1990
760
1,550
1,020
1,350
260
110
420
5,470
3,520
1,270
5,460
10,250
12,540
4,540
2,340
2,320
3,300
4,650
4,900
2,150
36,740
52,460
2000
3,200
5,300
3,500
5,000
800
400
1,700
19,900
9,100
4,700
19,800
33,600
50,800
16,800
7,700
7,700
12,900
16,000
18,700
6,500
137,100
190,600
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model.
San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet,
Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study;
Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford
Research Institute, 1976.
844
-------
TABLE 12-51:
1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR
CONSTRUCTION LABOR AS PERCENTAGE
OF 1970 NATIONAL MARKET
Occupation
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total Engineers
Technicians
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Technicians
Skilled Trades
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers .,
Ironworkers^
Carpenters
Operating Engineers*3
Welders
Other Skills and Crafts
Total Skills and Crafts
1985
Western
Demand
270
970
580
700
190
80
200
2,990
1,720
710
2,980
5,410
5,660
2,500
1,600
1,430
1,760
2,870
2,480
1,440
19,740
1970
Supply
900
54,800
4,800
4,300
100
500
6,900
72,300
16,000
158,500
23,000
197,500
174,100
182,700
2,600
44,800
133,000
22,800
38,100
822,100
1,420,200
Percentage
30
1.8
12.1
16.3
190
16
2.9
4.2
10.8
0.4
10.6
2.7
3.3
1.4
61.5
3.2
1.3
\ 12.6
\ 6.5
\ 0 . 2
1.4
Source: Table 12-50 and U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census. Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC (2)-
7C. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973,
Table 8.
aCensus categories of cranemen and hoistmen and structural
metal craftsmen.
Census categories of earth drillers, miscellaneous machine
operatives, and fork lift operatives.
845
-------
TABLE 12-52:
1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR SELECTED
OCCUPATIONS IN CONSTRUCTION, MINING,
PETROLEUM REFINING, AND ELECTRIC
UTILITIES
Occupation
Mining Engineers
Boilermakers
Chemical Engineers
1985
Demand
400
1,620
300
1970
Labor Pool
3,100
6,600
8,200
Percentage
12.9
24.5
3.7
Source: Table 12-48 and 12-50 and U.S., Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census. Occupation by Industry. Subject Report
PC(2)-7C. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973,
Table 8.
If the demands and supplies for these occupations are
combined for construction, mining industries, petroleum refining
and electric utilities, the results are as shown in Table 12-52.
It appears that chemical engineers would not be a problem
but that boilermakers could constitute a significant bottleneck.
Additional workers could be recruited from manufacturing indus-
tries, but ultimately apprenticeship programs must be expanded.
Even if the 1985 demand is met from the current labor pool, a
five-fold increase beyond the 1985 demand is anticipated by 2000
(7,710 in construction versus 1,600 at the earlier date).l
Beyond 1985, labor requirements would be greatly increased
by gasification and shale oil plants. Particularly sharp growth
in demand (seven-fold or more) would be felt by chemical and
mechanical engineers, pipefitters, welders, and carpenters. As
noted previously in the case of. operations personnel, a long lead
time would allow these requirements to be met but would necessi-
tate early expansion of formal schooling and/or apprenticeship
programs.
Western energy is still an emerging industry; thus, the
future course of industrial relations has not yet been estab-
lished. As the industry grows, it will obviously provide a major
opportunity for union organization.2 What is considerably less
Note that the demand shifts from building power plants
(95.0 percent of the boilermakers in 1980) to gasification and
shale oil plants (59.0 and 38.4 percent respectively in 2000)..
2
Right-to-work laws in some western states may prevent this
to some extent.
846
-------
clear is how far labor organization will go and what forms it
might take. For example, the historical patterns of Appalachian
mining will not necessarily be repeated. Almost all western
mining is done by surface methods, which call for a smaller, more
educated workforce; there is more capital per worker than in
underground mines; the work is safer; etc. All these features
have a bearing on the pace and form of unionization. Moreover,
the energy conversion facilities have small, highly specialized
workforces. In short, western energy does not seem easily organ-
izable into the type of industrial union seen in the East, but a
number of organizations will undoubtedly try to establish them-
selves.1 The results cannot be predicted with any reliability.
12.4.10 Capital Availability
A. Capital Requirements
Large investments would be required to develop western energy
resources at any of the three levels being considered. Nation-
wide, investments would be even larger and questions have been
raised about the ability and willingness of financial institu-
tions to undertake such extensive commitments.
In this subsection, an attempt is made to answer several of
these questions, specifically:
1. How large are the demands for capital implied
by the western energy scenario? What is the
time distribution of these demands?
2. Is this demand for capital "large" compared
to national markets, in the sense of raising
interest rates, diverting substantial funds
from other sectors, etc?
3. Are the individual projects "large" compared
to the credit limits of firms in the industry?
Will western energy development alter current
patterns of industrial organization?
4. How sensitive are these forecasts to changes
in market conditions?
Oil shale can be used to illustrate how questions about
financial resource availability may be answered because the
pattern of growth anticipated for oil shale is simpler
than- the growth pattern of some other resources. When the
SRI model was constructed, it appeared that oil shale development
Recent western organizing efforts of the United Mine
Workers are described in Business Week, April 18, 1977.
847
-------
would begin at a slow rate in the 1980's and accelerate rapidly
to 2000 and beyond. This would result in investment expenditures
that grow exponentially, while the resulting return flow of cash
lags behind and has relatively little impact until after 2000.
Using the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model data for a
100,000 barrels per day plant operating at 90-percent efficiency,
the investment required during construction for each plant will
be $857 million. Annual return cash flow after operation begins
and after dividends are paid out will amount to $54 million per
plant. Combining these positive (into the project) and negative
(back from the project) flows of money for the entire sequence
of plants coming on stream through 2005, the graph in Figure 12-3
results.
These data include all plants opening by 2005 because pre-
start-up construction causes substantial impacts before 2000.
The industry is just beginning a state of extremely rapid growth
during 2000-2010. As a result, investment expenditures far out-
pace the growth of return cash flow well into the next century.
The coal gasification case produces similar results. Gasi-
fication and oil shale would require the largest share of capital
going to western energy development in the 1990's. However, the
pace of gasification development would begin to moderate slightly
by 1999 (Figure 12-4), return cash flow would start catching up,
and net capital demand would peak out at $6.3 billion per year.
Two other technologies contribute to capital demands during
the time frame of this study: surface coal mining and mine-mouth
power generation (Figures 12-5 and 12-6). Financial data for all
these industries are summarized by 5-year periods in -Table 12-53.
The patterns of development are quite diverse. Whereas oil shale
and gasification are young and growing industries, mining is
characterized by a steady (almost linear) growth of output, and
mine-mouth power plants will have achieved a "mature" industry
status by the late 1980's with only slight growth afterwards.
Oil shale and gasification require steadily growing inputs of
capital, while mining requires a fairly constant $250 million in
new money per year. Also, with a number of new plants coming
on-stream in the opening years of the study period, mine-mouth
power will actually become a net supplier of funds by 1985.
(These funds could be used directly by the utilities for other
types of projects or else for paying off bonds and other debts.
In either case, they will relieve the capital markets of that
much demand.)
848
-------
00
10
billions
of 1975
dollars 9
INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES
INTERNAL GENERATION OF FUNDS
NET DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT FUNDS
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 12-3: OIL SHALE (MINE, RETORT, AND UPGRADE), CASH FLOW, ANNUAL, ALL PLANTS
OPENING DURING 1976-2005
-------
00
Ul
o
bill ions
of 1975
doll,
10
8
— INTERNAL GENERATION OF FUNDS
--NET DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT FUNDS
I I I I | ! \^\ I I I "T'T'T | I I I I | I I I I
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 12-4: COAL GASIFICATION PLANTS, CASH FLOW, ANNUAL, ALL PLANTS
OPENING 1976-2004
-------
00
Ul
1000
millions
of 1975
dollars 900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES
INTERNAL GENERATION OF FUNDS
NET DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT FUNDS
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 12-5: SURFACE COAL MINES, CASH FLOW, ANNUAL, ALL MINES OPENING
1976-2004
-------
03
Ul
1OUU
nil 1 ions
of 1975
dol 1 ars i unn -
n
onn -
yuu
onn .
oUU
0_
•
cnn
-oUU
-»-*_ - TMWr^TMTNT rYPPMnTTIIPr^
X^x \ TNTFRNAI ftFWFPATTON OF FIINR^
^v \ -------- u\| | tft|\|ML ULINtrvn 1 lull Ur rUINUo
\ \ NET DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT FUNDS
\ \
\ ^N. ~~
\ ^\ — -'*
X X *'''"
\_ ^/X;~^-^
/"^\ ^^^^^ ^
\
\
\
_.-*' N
•\
•s.
\
\
\
N. _ -^ "*" v /
1980 1985 1990 1995 200
FIGURE 12-6: MINE-MOUTH POWER, CASH FLOW, ANNUAL, ALL PLANTS OPENING
DURING 1976-2008
-------
TABLE 12-53:
CASH FLOW, 1976-2000, FIVE MAJOR ENERGY SYSTEMS IN WESTERN STATES
(billions of 1975 dollars)
Investment
Gross Investment
Oil Shale
Gasification
Surface Mining
Mine-Mouth Power
Transportation
Gross, Five Systems
Return Cash Flow
Net Investment
1976-1980
0.36
1.67
7.59
5.15
14.77
2.75
12.02
1981-1985
2.42
1.22
1.98
5.05
5.62
16.29
11.54
4.75
1986-1990
4.68
8.10
2.48
3.13
7.01
25.40
12.02
13.38
1991-1995
10.52
20.81
3.27
1.68
9.59
45.87
20.36
25.51
1996-2000
24.13
39.80
4.35
1.69
13.69
83.66
35.04
•48.62
Total
42.11
69.93
13.75
19.14
41.06
185.99
81.71
104.28
00
(J\
U)
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.s Bechtel
Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study;
Economics. Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research institute, 1976.
-------
As shown in Figure 12-7, these diverse trends add up to a
very stable $2 billion rate of investment for the first 8 years,
not counting transportation. During that period mine-mouth power
would take the major portion funds. By 1984, 36,000 MWe would
be on-line. These facilities would contribute a return cash flow
of almost $800 million per year, an amount equivalent to 37 per-
cent of the requirements for all new construction. However, in
the mid-1980's, fundamental changes would begin to occur. First
oil shale and then gasification will "take-off". By 1989, gasi-
fication will be absorbing funds faster than the previous peak
of mine-mouth power. Oil shale, though lagging during most of
the time frame, will probably consume more funds between 2000
and 2010 than will gasification.
In short, energy development would require about $2 billion
per year in new funds for quite a while, but after 1988 invest-
ment dwarfs anything previously encountered, reaching a $17 bil-
lion annual rate by the end of the century and still accelerating.
In terms of a regional disaggregation, the largest invest-
ments would be required in Montana and North Dakota before 1990
and in Colorado after 1990 (Table 12-54).! In Montana and North
Dakota, investments would be needed primarily for mine-mouth
power plants; in Colorado, they would be needed for oil shale
development. Gasification would represent a sizable share of
investment in the Northern Great Plains states after 1990.
Table 12-54 also shows that the Low Nuclear case is a high
investment case for the region because nuclear power would be
replaced largely by western coal.
New transportation facilities would comprise an important
link in the western energy system and would boost total invest-
ment costs of the four resource technologies by 28 percent or
$41 billion (Table 12-53). This estimate is based on assumptions
stated in Table 12-55 where the substantial costs of transporting
coal, compared to the synthetic energy forms, can also be seen.
In fact, that feature of synthetics is one of the prime incentives
for adopting them. (Transportation costs and capacities are
described further in Section 12.9.)
The other energy systems in the aggregated scenario have
negligible capital requirements. For example, although each
underground mine requires more capital than surface mine of simi-
lar size, surface mines will outnumber underground mines 296 to
This table differs from the previous tabulation in that
only completed facilities are counted and interest costs are
included. These alterations bring the results closer to figures
that would be used in tax assessment.
854
-------
00
en
Ui
18
billions
of 1975
dollars 16
14
12
10
2-
0
MINE-MOUTH ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION
SURFACE COAL MINING
OIL SHALE
COAL GASIFICATION
TOTAL FOR FOUR SYSTEMS
i"T"r'T'P' "i "T'TTT i i i
i'T f i T i i 1
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 12-7: ANNUAL RATE OF INVESTMENT FOR WESTERN ENERGY SYSTEMS
-------
TABLE 12-54:
VALUES OF FACILITIES PLACED IN OPERATION, BY STATE,
1975-1990 and 1990-2000, UNDER THREE ENERGY
SCENARIOS
(billions of 1975 dollars)a
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Total
(Six States)
1975-1990
Nominal
7.02
1.51
2.87
10.85
10.90
4.06
37.21
Low
Demand
5.66
1.44
1.36
6.18
8.22
5.10
27.96
Low
Nuclear
6.10
3.02
4.25
13.26
12.84
6.53
46.00
1990-2000
Nominal
34.88
2.76
4.23
19.94
25.72
13.24
100.77
Low
Demand
28.54
1.46
3.17
14.78
16.15
6.66
70.76
Low
Nuclear
36.32
4.20
5.74
24.85
28.67
14.20
113.98
Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San
Francisco, Calif.s Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet, Edward,
et al. A Western Regional Energy Development'Study; Economics, Final
Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute,
1976.
Four energy systems are considered: gasification, oil shale,, mine mouth
electricity, and coal mining. Figures include interest cost.
TABLE 12-55:
INVESTMENT COSTS FOR ENERGY TRANSPORT, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
Transport Mode
Slurry pipeline
Unit train
Gas pipeline
Direct currant transmission
Oil pipeline
Resource
Coal
Coal
Gas from coal
Electricty
Shale synerude
Throughout, year 2000
, (Quadrillion
Btu-miles per year)*
8,212
7,356
3,514
837
3,496
23,400
Capital Cost
(million* of dollar* par
Quadrillion
Btu-niles per year)
2.437°
1.737&
1.248*
3.499*
.250*
investment
by 2000
{billions of 'dollars)
20.01
12.78
4.40
1.93
.88
41
Btu « British thermal unit
*Cazalet, Edward, et at. > Western Regional Energy Development Studyi
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
bDeduced from Rieber, Michael and Shao Lee Boo. Route Specific Cost
Economics. Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo ParX,
Extra Hioh Voltage Transmission (Appendix B of thin report). Routes of approximately 650 miles were taXen a« the norm.
riaons; Unit Trains, Coal slurry Pipelines and
856
-------
15 by 2000. As another example, uranium mining and milling have
very low capital requirements per British thermal unit (Btu).
Nevertheless, the Nominal case estimates a western uranium
output of 22.67Q's (1015 Btu's) per year by the end of the cen-
tury, which would require substantial investment in both enrich-
ment and reactor facilities. In fact, if all the uranium output
went to light water reactor plants, an investment of some $190
billion would be required or an average of $6.9 billion per year
beyond the nuclear capacity currently in place. Enrichment and
other fuel processing facilities could require an additional $15
billion. These costs are noted in passing but are not among the
prime concerns of this study because the facilities would be
located outside the region.
Another category of costs not analyzed in detail is pollu-
tion control. Little hard information is available in this
area. Nevertheless, electrical power plants will probably have
to invest at least $100 per kilowatt (and perhaps twice that)
for control of sulfur emissions.1 (Control devices will also
entail operating costs, use some of the plants' electrical out-
put, and reduce thermal efficiencies. Other pollutants will
require control devices, too, such as electrostatic precipitators
for fly ash. The costs of sulfur control are considered here
simply to indicate the orders of magnitude involved.) The $100
per kilowatt figure implies additional capital costs of $760 mil-
lion during 1976-1980, $820 million in the 1980's and $340 mil-
lion in the 1990's. Since the synthetic fuels systems are still
being developed, it is difficult to estimate pollution control
costs associated with them. The major problem area, as pointed
out in Section 3.2, would seem to be that of fugitive hydro-
carbons .
B. Impact on Capital Markets
The financial demands described above can be compared with
the overall size of U.S. financial markets and the energy indus-
tries' historical share of those markets (Table 12-56). Equip-
ment expenditures over the decade ending in 1975 averaged 7.90
percent of GNP.2 An average of 7.8 percent up to 2000 and a
Ottmers, D.M., et al. Evaluation of Regenerable Flue Gas
Desulfurization Processes, 2 vols. Austin, Tex.: Radian Cor-
poration, 1976, Vol. 1, p. 20.
2
As reported in the "New Plant and Equipment Expenditures"
series in the Survey of Current Business; published monthly by
the U.S., Department of Commerce.
857
-------
TABLE 12-56:
INVESTMENTS FOR WESTERN ENERGY COMPARED TO
NATIONAL NEW PLANT INVESTMENTS
(in billions of 1975 dollars)
Time
Period
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
1976-2000
Investment in
Western Energy
(Five Systems )a
14.8
16.3
25.4
45.9
83.6
185.9
New Plant,
all industries
648
770
914
1,086
1,289
4,707
Percentage
2.28
2.12
2.78
4.23
6.49
3.95
Source: Table 12-53 and assumptions in text.
aOil shale, coal gasification, surface mining, mine-mouth
power generation, and transportation.
compound GNP growth rate of 3.5 percent per year are assumed in
the following comparisons. This is consistent with the 2.8-
percent energy growth rate implicit in the SRI Nominal case.l
The proposed investments would not severely strain national
capacity to build industrial structures and durable equipment,
at least from this highly aggregated perspective. Even during
the projected gasification and oil shale development boom,
western energy development will constitute no more than 7 percent
of the nation's new plant and equipment.
The share of investment traditionally taken by the energy
industries provides another yardstick. The U.S. Department of
Commerce categories of electric and gas utilities, petroleum
companies (domestic operations only), and mining companies
together have usually accounted for approximately 30 percent of
all new plant and equipment expenditures. In the last 5 years,
these industries have been investing at a rate of $36 billion
per year (1975 currency). Allowing a 3.5-percent annual growth
rate, western energy projects would take the following propor-
tions of the sector's investments:
Percent
1976-
1980
7.4
1981-
1985
6.9
1986-
1990
9.0
1991-
1995
13.7
1996-
2000
21.1
Average
12.8
1 . .
Together, the two assumptions allow for gradual implementa-
tion of energy conservation; for the average industry, British ther-
mal units per dollar output will decrease by 0.7 percent per year.
858
-------
By the 1990's, western development will begin taking a noticeable
share of energy investment, but it will be replacing other
investments, such as conventional oil and gas drilling. Thus,
the energy sector should maintain its historic share of invest-
ment activity, even as it shifts to new technological systems.
C. Capacity of Firms
Although western energy development is not large when com-
pared either to the economy as a whole or to the energy indus-
tries, the projects envisioned in the scenarios could challenge
the capacity of even the largest individual firms. The overall
capital requirement would not be intolerably large, but the
expenditures, must be made in major segments.
At present, there are only three surface mines in the U.S.
in the 6-million tons per year (MMtpy) range and only eight deep
mines in the 2-MMtpy range.1 When linking together modules into
annual production units of 16 million tons (underground) and 12
million tons (surface), as our scenarios envision, the resources
of any firm currently in the field would be challenged. In fact,
only six firms produced more than 16 million tons in 1974. How-
ever, the coal industry has demonstrated a long-standing ten-
dency toward larger units. Both mines and firms have recently
increased substantially in size, especially during the 1960's.
The average size of the top 50 mines grew from 1.92 MMtpy in
1957 to 2.90 MMtpy in 1974.2 At the same time, the industry has
been concentrated into fewer firms. Announced plans, especially
in the West, feature some large operations, and large operations
will probably lead to larger firms. One feature of this expan-
sion might well be the conglomeration of the industry, only 3 of
the top 15 producers are exclusively coal companies; the others
are owned by diversified metals companies and petroleum com-
panies. 3
1975 Keystone Coal Industry Manual. New York, N.Y.:
McGraw-Hill, 1975, p. 499.
o
Pennsylvania State university, Institute for Research on
Human Resources. The Demand for and Supply of Manpower in the
Bituminous Coal Industry for the Years 1985 and 2000. Spring-
field, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1973; 1975
Keystone Coal Manual.
One of these large companies, Kennecott Copper Company,
was ordered to divest itself of its subsidiary, Peabody
Coal, the nation's largest coal producer. The Federal Trade
Commission had to approve the proposed sale.
859
-------
By the 1990's, western development will begin taking a noticeable
share of energy investment, but it will be replacing other
investments, such as conventional oil and gas drilling. Thus,
the energy sector should maintain its historic share of invest-
ment activity, even as it shifts to new technological systems.
C. Capacity of Firms
Although western energy development is not large when com-
pared either to the economy as a whole or to the energy indus-
tries, the projects envisioned in the scenarios could challenge
the capacity of even the largest individual firms. The overall
capital requirement would not be intolerably large, but the
expenditures must be made in major segments.
At present, there are only three surface mines in the U.S.
in the 6-million tons per year (MMtpy) range and only eight deep
mines in the 2-MMtpy range.1 When linking together modules into
annual production units of 16 million tons (underground) and 12
million tons (surface), as our scenarios envision, the resources
of any firm currently in the field would be challenged. In fact,
only six firms produced more than 16 million tons in 1974- How-
ever, the coal industry has demonstrated a long-standing ten-
dency toward larger units. Both mines and firms have recently
increased substantially in size, especially during the 1960's.
The average size of the top 50 mines grew from 1.92 MMtpy in
1957 to 2.90 MMtpy in 1974.2 At the same time, the industry has
been concentrated into fewer firms. Announced plans, especially
in the West, feature some large operations, and large operations
will probably lead to larger firms. One feature of this expan-
sion might well be the conglomeration of the industry, only
3 of the top 15 producers are exclusively coal companies? the
others are owned by diversified metals companies and petroleum
companies.3
1975 Keystone Coal Industry Manual. New York, N.Y.:
McGraw-Hill, 1975, p. 499.
2
Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Research on
Human Resources. The Demand for and Supply of Manpower in the
Bituminous Coal Industry for the Years 1985 and 2000. Spring-
field, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1973; 1975
Keystone Coal Manual. ,; -
One of these large companies> Kennecott Copper Company,
was ordered to divest itself of its subsidiary, Peabody-
Coal, the .nation's largest coal producer. The Federal
Trade .Commission had to approve the proposed consortium by
October 1, 1977.
860
-------
Table 12-57 lists 20 firms representative of those having
made or likely to make substantial commitments in western energy
development, along with the value of their fixed assets. A
single $1.2-billion facility would boost the assets of the median
company by 67 percent in one step. Such investments would entail
substantial risk and require outside financing.!
Judging from these factors, and from tendencies already
appearing, western energy industries may develop along the fol-
lowing lines:
1. Outside sources of capital will be required, and
diversified energy companies will develop coal
resources. Such "horizontal" expansion will not
eliminate risks but will at least prevent their
being positively correlated with the companies'
other risks.2
2. As mines grow, so will mining firms. Indepen-
dent coal companies will continue to form
mergers or be acquired by oil companies (Con-
solidation Coal in Continental Oil, Island
Creek Coal in Occidental Petroleum, etc.). Coal
companies have also merged with metal mining
companies.
3. Even these larger, diversified organizations
will find it necessary to work in consortia.
Four firms will each take a share of four
projects, rather than each one having its own.
4. The new, large, diversified, project-sharing
groups will still need outside capital. By
traditional standards, investors will rely more
on the soundness of the particular projects
than on the developer's balance sheet. In
this regard, "project financing" resembles a
mortgage. However, banks are going beyond the
risks of traditional industrial mortgages by
allowing repayment to be conditioned on
Arnold, Bob. "New Outlook for Coal: Not So Sensational
and Not So Troubled." Wall Street Journal, July 28, 1976.
2
Negatively correlated risks "cancel out". Realization of
this had led to an extensive literature on portfolio theory,
beginning with Markowitz, H.M. Portfolio Selection. New York,
.N.Y.: Wiley, 1959.
861
-------
TABLE 12-:57:
FIRMS REPRESENTATIVE OF THOSE ENGAGED
IN WESTERN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT, AND
THEIR FIXED ASSETS
Company
Assets
(millions of
dollars)3
Standard Oil Indiana
Shell Oil Company''3
ARCO
Southern Pacific Company
Sun Oil Company
Union Pacific corporation
Burlington Northern, Inc.
Santa Fe Industries
Phillips Petroleum
Texas Eastern Transmission
Standard Oil Ohio
El Paso Company
Pacific Power and Light
Northern Natural Gas
Public Service Colorado
Ashland Oil
Utah Power and Light
Kerr-McGee corporation
Pacific Lighting
Montana Power
5,580
3,905
3,769
3,062
2,574
2,403
2,247
2,158
2,154
1,818
1,747
1,466
1,370
1,186
1,123
791
700
651
475
372
Source: Moody's Investors Service
Land, plant, and equipment net of
depreciation, as of December 31, 1974.
Majority owned by the international
Royal Dutch group.
clnferred; most assets held by subsidi-
aries, especially Southern California Gas.
862
-------
successful operation of the facility;1 they
usually rely on firm, long term sales contracts.
In turn, the purchasing utilities want to assure
themselves of timely delivery and so buy rail-
road rolling stock. In short, future develop-
ments will require close coordination of all the
participants, and they will commit themselves on
an ad hoc basis only after examination of
detailed plans.
D. Market Risks
According to the SRI model, if oil prices continue to rise,
synthetic fuels systems would become attractive investments with-
out governmental subsidies by 1990. The Nominal case assumes
that world oil prices will advance from the 1975 price of $11
per barrel to $16 per barrel by the end of the century (real
prices). In such a case, interfuel competition, with each tech-
nology receiving its "minimum acceptable price", would drive
imported oil out of the market. Shale syncrude, Lurgi gas, etc.
could be produced for a total cost less than $16 per barrel
equivalent according to SRI assumptions.
However, if the international oil cartel cannot (or will
not) maintain prices, their oil will supply an increasingly
large share of the U.S. energy market. SRI has run a sensi-
tivity analysis in which world oil prices first fall, then
rebound to $10 by the end of the century. In that case, oil
shale development would be almost completely forestalled.
Investors are particularly wary of oil price changes
because they depend greatly on "subjective", unstable factors,
rather than on inexorable technical factors. Production costs
for oil in the Persian Gulf and other major fields are generally
believed to account for only a small fraction of the selling
price. The high price is maintained through taxes, "artificial"
restrictions of production, and collusive agreements, all of
which are inherently unstable. If there was open competition in
the world market, consumers everywhere could benefit greatly,
but investors in expensive energy alternatives would lose essen-
tially all monies put into such projects. Thus, investment in
adequate amounts may not be forthcoming without some form of
loan guarantee.
Wilson, Wallace W. "Capital for Coal Mine Development."
Coal Mining and Processing, Vol. 13 (January 1976), pp. 68 ff.
863
-------
12.4.11 Summary of Regional Social, Economic, and Political
Impacts
As a result of energy developments likely for the western
U.S. between the present and 2000, the study area population can
be expected to increase by 768,000-1,248,000 people.1 This popu-
lation increase would generate most of the impacts discussed in
this section. Predicted increases are modest for Colorado, New
Mexico, and Utah, but they may be as great as 50 percent in
Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Increases as great as 600'
percent through the year 2000 will occur in some local areas in
the West.
As a result of the new employment in the energy industry,
regional income can be expected to increase by nearly 30 percent
(in constant dollars) by 2000. The relative importance of eco-
nomic sectors will change as well, with significant shifts from
agriculture to energy in the Northern Great Plains states. Con-
sistent with these shifts, land use for energy facilities can be
expected to vary between 11 and 19 percent of some counties in
Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming.
Local cultures and lifestyles will be affected, particularly
those of ranchers, farmers, and Indians. Political preferences
may also change as a result of the influx of new residents. How-
ever, quality of life impacts will depend mostly on local condi-
tions , and especially on how local governments are able to respond
to stresses induced by the new population. Their success will
largely depend on their ability to plan and manage growth.
Inflation can be expected to occur in some localities
because of increased demands and inadequate supply of goods and
services.
Regional capital expenditures by governments for services
will approach $200 million per year between 1990 and 2000. In
the aggregate, tax revenues should be adequate to cover these
expenditures. However, jurisdictional barriers may lead to prob-
lems when revenues accrue in a jurisdiction other than the one
most severely impacted.
Equipment, capital, and personnel availability problems .can
also be expected to occur. Capital requirements for energy
facilities will not, on the aggregate, be a large fraction of
total capital required nationally for plants and equipment. How-
ever, the size of individual facilities will be so large that
The levels of energy development are taken from Cazalet,
Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study:
Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford
JResearch Institute, 1976.
864
-------
single companies are unlikely to have adequate capital. As a
result, more joint ventures and outside financing will be required.
'On the whole, energy development would require about $2 billion
per year in new funds for quite a while, but after 1988 invest-
ment would rapidly move to new levels, reaching a $17 billion
annual rate by the end of the century and still accelerating.
Railroads and railroad equipment manufacturing industries
would have to grow by about 15 percent by 1985 as compared to
required growth without energy development. This would require
investments of as much as $420 million annually. Foundries would
realize a 10-percent increase in business to 1985 as well.
Regional impacts due to increased business from western
energy development can be expected in cities such as Birmingham.
due to railroad equipment construction, Pittsburgh due to steel
and railroad equipment,, and Duluth-Superior due to iron
mining.
Personnel resources will, for the most part, be adequate,
but there will be substantial demands for chemical and mining
engineers as well as a particularly high demand for boilermakers.
All these demands must be met by establishing or enlarging train-
ing programs for these occupations.
12.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
12.5.1 Introduction
A diversity of plant and animal communities occur in the
eight-state study area. Consequently, the stresses to ecosystems
from energy development will vary by location depending on the
biological communities present. The ecological impacts sections
in Chapters 6-11 identify and describe the kinds of impacts that
can be anticipated given various local conditions. Many of the
consequences of regional scale development will be qualitatively
similar to local scenarios; they will simply occur in more loca-
tions. Regional development can also pose cumulative stresses
that will have ecological significance. Four of these stresses
are discussed here: the impacts of consumptive water use on
aquatic habitatsj the loss and degradation of terrestrial
communities through large-scale changes in land-use patterns;
the potential for reclaiming mined lands; and the emission of
large quantities of sulfur dioxide (802) into the atmosphere.
These stresses may act independently and synergistically to pro-
duce changes in plant and animal populations in the study area.
This section identifies regional impacts on the area's bio-
logical communities and gives examples of the kinds of impacts
that result from altering existing stresses which currently
865
-------
determine the abundance and distribution of plant and animal
populations.-'- '
Throughout the eight-state area, the man-made and natural
factors that act as stresses to ecosystems and their component
populations vary in different areas. Consequently, these eco-
systems differ in both their ability to sustain new'stresses with-
out deterioration and their resiliency or ability to recover from
the changes induced by new stresses. These locational differences
are highlighted in the following discussion.
12.5.2 Impacts from Water Consumption
Of all. the habitats found in the study area, aquatic habi-
tat is by far the most limited in extent. Further reduction in
this habitat will have more widespread effects to both aquatic
and terrestrial species than changes to large areas of terres-
trial habitat. Development of the water resources needed for the
regional scenario will result in three principal changes to
aquatic habitats: decreased stream flow, changes in water qual-
ity, and construction of water supply reservoirs.
A. Flow Reduction
As indicated in Chapters 6-11, stream-flow depletion arises
from direct removal and consumption of water, aquifer depletion,
and runoff control. Anticipated water demands from regional
development for the Nominal case are included in Section 12.3.
Because major withdrawals will commence between 1990 and 2000,
demands for the Stanford Research Institute's Nominal case are
greater for the year 2000. The total energy-related demand by
2000 would be well below the average discharge of many rivers in
the region,, but water demand would be equivalent to a large pro-
portion of typical low flows and would equal or exceed the low
For example, factors that often limit the size and well-
being of animal populations are the amount and condition of the
ecosystem types that are available. Because many species require
different kinds of habitat, the loss of only a small part of a
population's total range may have a disproportionately large
effect. Riparian (stream-side) habitat may be especially impor-
tant for food gathering or water supply to some species. Other
species may require lower elevation habitat for winter forage.
These habitats may be a small portion of either the total range
or habitat available, but they are critical to maintaining a
population.
o
The extent of this problem depends on how the demands for
water are divided between rivers and how reservoirs are used to
regulate flow.
866
-------
flow of record.1 However , the water required by energy developments
would not all ,be withdrawn from existing low flows but., in
part, would come from water released from storage in upstream
reservoirs.
The greatest impacts on aquatic ecosystems could occur in
the San Juan Basin and western Colorado. Increased irrigation
such as the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project, will consume addi-
tional water and add significant amounts of nutrient-, pesticide-,
and silt-laden runoff to the San Juan; flow depletion could
seriously reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Together,
these factors may alter the extent and quality of the aquatic
habitat in the San Juan River and in the San Juan arm of Lake
Powell.
In western Colorado, heavy water demands could deplete flows
in the White, Green, and Colorado Rivers. Even if as little as
a quarter of the total water requirement for the area is appor-
tioned to the White, demand would exceed typical minimum daily
flows. The Colorado, measured near Rifle, commonly experiences
minimum daily flows which will fall short of the total demand
projected for the year 2000. Problems arising from excessive
demand could be mitigated by using water from the Green River,
although this river also experiences low minimum flows. Severe
flow depletion could reduce aquatic habitat and the ability to
sustain threatened or endangered species.^
i
| !
The physical impact of flow reduction will be most notice-
able in the summer and late winter months when flow is normally
at its lowest. Depending on the ultimate distribution and use of
water rights, water withdrawals could reduce discharge in some
rivers to zero or nearly zero. Zero flow does not necessarily
mean that there is no water in a stream bed but merely that it is
not moving and therefore does not constitute a flow.
2
In most parts of the eight-state region, large main-stem
reservoirs on the Colorado and Missouri Rivers afford a source of
stored water both for industrial use and maintenance of base flow.
In other locations, new reservoirs would be needed to sustain
flow during periods of low snowmelt and limited rainfall.
A number of techniques for determining in-stream flow needs
for biological resources have been reviewed. One simplified
generalization suggests that flows be maintained at 25-30 percent
of the average daily flow as much as 55 percent of the time.
However, such measures tend to be quite unreliable when applied
to specific situations. Bovee, K.D. The Determination, Assess-
ment, and Design of "In-Stream Value" Studies for the Northern
Great Plains Region. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1975.
867
-------
The Yellowstone River and its tributaries could experience
withdrawals from 25 to 100 percent of typical low flows, depending
on the use of reservoirs to regulate discharge. The portion of
the Yellowstone from Billings, Montana to the Missouri confluence
is free-flowing, and there is considerable public pressure to
keep it so. However, the river is 20-100 miles from many of the
coal deposits and thus a long-distance delivery system typically
involving reservoirs would be required. Irrigation demands on
the Yellowstone are already high and could increase, further
reducing dilution capacity and increasing nutrient and pesticide
concentrations brought in by agricultural runoff. Expanded crop
production, even on non-irrigated acreage, will add to the pollu-
tant load entering the river through runoff.
The two main-stem rivers in the study area will reflect the
cumulative influence of upstream and tributary withdrawals. As
discussed in Section 12.3.1, the water required from the Upper
Colorado amounts to 32-52 percent of ,the> unused .water in
the river.1 However, marshlands in the lower valley could very
likely be affected both in extent and species composition.2
Section 12.3.2 indicates that cumulative flow reduction in the
Lower Missouri River Basin could curtail navigation roughly 1 in
3 years and that in 11 of 75 years no navigation may be possible.
This great a reduction in flow, although not quantified as a pro-
portion of present low flows, would undoubtedly produce serious
adverse effects on the aquatic ecosystem.
In addition to affecting the aquatic community directly,
reduced river flow will exert an influence on terrestrial vege-
tation if floodplain water tables are lowered due to insufficient
recharge from the stream. Riparian and floodplain habitats are
perhaps the most important individual habitat types in the Great
Plains and southwestern deserts. They are used at least season-
ally by many upland species as wintering habitat or hunting range,
as well as supporting a distinctive and diverse animal community.
They are among the most limited in extent of the major habitat
types throughout the eight-state region and are rapidly being
fragmented by urban and agricultural expansion. Riparian marshes
important to waterfowl would be narrowed in some areas and per-
haps lost, although in others, shoaling and reduced current
The degree to which flow in the Lower Colorado may be
reduced by this demand depends on the extent of actual use of
presently allocated water and on use of reservoir discharge to
maintain base flows.
2
Loss of these habitats could prove critical to the offi-
cially "threatened" Yuma clapper rail, as well as the black rail
and a large number of waterfowl and shorebirds that find other
suitable wetlands habitat scarce in the area.
868
-------
velocity could induce a cycle of sedimentation and growth of
emergent plants.
B. Water Quality Changes
Water consumption in the upper parts of the main river
basins of the study area will reduce both volume and dilution
potential downstream. Added to the impact of the effect of
evaporation on this reduced volume will further increase
salinity, particularly in the Lower Colorado River Basin
(LCRB). Without salinity control, salinity levels may
increase to I,100-lv400 milligrams per liter (mg/Ji).1 With
more successful Operation of the Colorado salinity control pro-
jects, salinities at or above Imperial dam should range between
730-1,000 mg/£.2 A number of researchers have found that fresh-
water fish can generally^ live in water with total dissolved solids
(TDS) as high as 7,000 ing/fl,, and some salt-tolerant freshwater
species are found in natural waters with concentrations as high
as 20,000 mg/£. On the basis of a broad literature survey, some
state agencies apply a 2,000 mg/£ limit as a water quality cri-
terion for maintenance of freshwater fish and aquatic life.^
The salinities expected to develop in the LCRB appear too
low to cause redistribution or mortality in fishes. However,
there is very little evidence to use in evaluating the possi-
bility of subacute impacts either on fish or on other aspects of
the aquatic ecosystem. The impact of in-flowing pollutants from
leaching mine spoils, agricultural runoff, irrigation return
flows, and municipal sewage treatment effluent will add stresses.
U.S., Environmental Protectioii Agency, RegionsVIII and IX.
The Mineral Quality Problem in the Colorado River Basin, Summary
Report and Appendices. -Denver, Colo.: ^Environmental Protection
Agency, 1971; Coloradoc, River Board of California. Need for Con-
trolling Salinity of the Colorado River. Sacramento, Calif.:
State of California, 1970; and U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, Office of:Saline Water. Colorado River
International Salinity Control Project, Special Report. Bureau
of Reclamation, 1973.
2
Maletic, J.T. "Salinity Control Planning in the Colorado
River System," in Flack, J.E., and C.W. Howe, eds. Salinity in
Water Resources; Proceedings of the 15th Annual Western Resource
Conference, University of Colorado, July 1973. Boulder, Colo.:
Merriam Publishing, 1974.
McKee, Jack Edward, and Harold W. Wolf. Water Quality
Criteria, 2nd ed. Sacramento, Calif.: Resources Agency of
California, State Water Quality Control Board, 1963.
869
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C. Reservoir Construction
Additional impoundments will be required in the study area
to insure a reliable source of water for energy development. For
example, in the Yellowstone River Basin new impoundments would
be needed to insure supply during late summer, fall, and
winter. ^
The reservoirs needed for energy developments are a very
different kind of habitat than the original river. _Impoundments
reduce turbidity, trap sediment, and stabilize chemical varia-
tions. A large reservoir stratifies seasonally into a warm,
productive upper layer and a colder lower layer in which the
dissolved oxygen content may be lowered. Non-game fish may be
able to compete with game fish more successfully, or game fish
may simply lose much of their suitable spawning areas (as hap-
pened recently in North Dakota's Lake Sakakawea).
Some reservoirs can develop highly productive, diverse eco-
systems if they combine good water quality with a variety of
habitats, especially, shoreline spawning, and nursery areas.^ If
reservoirs experience large water-level fluctuations to maintain
flow to energy facilities, then shoreline habitat cannot be main-
tained. Generally, reservoirs also have in-flows contaminated
by pollutants and sediments. The reservoir sites most vulner-
able to this pollution would be on major rivers in the Great
Plains.2 Mountain reservoirs would generally be less likely
to become eutrophic.
To date, most of the large impoundments in the study area
have been on main-stem rivers. However, concern about protecting
the remaining free-flowing river habitats, as well as the cost
of building large dams, may induce a trend toward off-stream
impoundments. By trapping sediment and releasing steady flows
of cool water, they could improve both the baseline quality of
the remaining aquatic habitat and the stream's ability to assim-
ilate municipal wastes.
In general, reservoirs increase the supply of some species,
such as sport fish, both within the impoundment and frequently
below it. However, the overall diversity of species may be
reduced in areas where warm-water fishes predominate, although
Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Water Resources Division. Which Way? The Future of Yellowstone
Water, Draft. Helena, Mont.: Montana, Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation, 1976, pp. 25-34.
2Most of the lakes and large impoundments in North Dakota
have become: highly eutrophic from nutrients and sediment brought
in by agricultural runoff.
870
-------
the quality of the sport fishery may improve. Aquatic habitat
will also be fragmented by reservoir construction, which will
introduce effective barriers to movement of biota upstream and
downstream. Finally, reservoir construction and operation will
eliminate valuable floodplain vegetation or lower its produc-
tivity.1 Thus, reservoirs will have a mixture of effects that
will increase the abundance of some species and stress or elim-
inate populations of others.
12.5.3 Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing Land Use
As stated in the site-specific impact analyses in Chapters
6-11, thebgreatest stress to terrestrial ecosystems usually stems
from the los-s or degradation of habitat. Direct consumption of
land for energy facilities can have an adverse influence either
if the amount of land required is large, as in western North
Dakota lignite fields, or if it overlaps areas of critical
importance to animals, such as migratory routes or breeding
areas. When both industrial and urban land disturbance is scat-
tered through a vegetational type, the resulting fragmentation
compounds the effects. A relatively small amount of the total
plant community is eliminated but leaves no large areas without
some degree of disturbance, and thus reduces the value of the
remaining habitat. Finally, people exert a disturbing influence
that typically thins out animals wary of human settlements.2 We
have concluded that the three major causes of habitat deteriora-
tion are: urban and residential expansion, dispersed recreation
in wilderness and backcountry area, and changes in land use from
mining and reclamation. The first two factors are discussed
below, and the third factor is covered in Section 12.5.4.
A. Urban and Residential Expansion
The most critical factor related to the effect of urban
expansion is the pattern in which development occurs. Scattered
trailer parks, subdivisions, and individual dwellings built on
small parcels of land (e.g., less than 5 acres) usually exert a
much larger overall affect on habitat than similar area use
Johnson, W.C., R.L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer. "Forest
Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River Flood-
plain in North Dakota." Ecological Monographs, Vol. 46 (Winter
1976), pp. 59-84.
2
For example, as indicated in Chapters 6-11, outdoor recre-
ational activities, particularly use of snowmobiles and other
off-road vehicles, brings this disturbance into backcountry areas
that have not been previously disturbed. Disturbances in winter
can be important to some animals due to additional metabolic
demands during periods of high physiological stress.
871
-------
around a few urban foci. Factors that contribute t'o these
residential patterns are discussed.in Chapter 14.
Predicted population growth and land needs are described in
Section 12.4. The areas most affected are the Powder River coal
region, the Western Colorado, the lignite fields of Western North
Dakota, and the Four Corners area.
Within these areas, certain habitats are likely to be more
vulnerable than others to fragmentation and disturbance due to
residential expansion. Especially in western Colorado and Utah,
rough terrain often limits buildable sites to river and stream
valleys, habitats which are both limited in extent and important
to maintaining overall ecological diversity. The growing demand
for recreational second homes in scenic mountain areas will also
put pressure on foothill habitats, which are more buildable and
accessible than higher elevations.1 This kind of land use may be
expected to develop particularly in the southern foothills of the
Rockies bordering the desert of the Colorado Plateau,2 in western
Colorado's oil shale areas, and the Black Hills. The biological
implications of the development in foothill winter ranges may be
greater for some species than others. For example, these areas
are typically the limiting factor controlling big game herds in
these areas.3
B. Impacts of Increased Outdoor Recreational Pressure
Regional ecological stresses brought on by energy develop-
ment are closely related to the size of human populations in the
study area. (Anticipated growth in regional human populations
is detailed in Section 12.4.2.) As shown in Table 12-58, the
cumulative percent increase of population projected over the
entire eight-state region will be more than 10 percent by 1990,
and a disproportionate share of this growth will occur near areas
with high value for backcountry recreation. As a new energy
impact, the baseline against which this growth in resident demand
should be measured is the projected growth in tourists (non-
residents) . Estimates made for the Upper Colorado River Basin
and Missouri River Basin Comprehensive Framework Studies indicate
For example, these patterns of land development are
described in: Montana State University, Gallatin Canyon Study
Team. The Gallatin Area; A Summary Report, Bulletin 344. '
Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State University, Cooperative Extension
Service, 1974, pp. 9-13.
o
Including the deserts of southern Utah across the Navajo
Reservation to central northern New Mexico.
For example, these patterns of land development are
described in: Gallatin Canyon Study Team. Gallatin Areaf pp. 20-2L
872
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TABLE 12-58:
EXPECTED POPULATION INCREASES DUE TO
NOMINAL CASE DEVELOPMENT IN SELECTED
STATES AND THE EIGHT-STATE REGION3
Year
1975
1980
1990
2000
Colorado
2,534,000
2,000
42,600
375,800
New Mexico
1,147,000
31,800
28,700
68,100
Wyoming
374,000
23,000
46,900
204,300
Total Eight-
State Region
9,551,000
95,500
280,900
1,247,600
See Section 12.4 and Table 12-34 for additional details,
that it is reasonable to expect this demand to double or triple
by the year 2000. Since the early 1970's, backcountry activities
such as hiking, snowmobiling, jeeping, and backpacking or
packing with horses have been rising in popularity, accounting for
5-15 percent of the total use in individual national forests.
Residents and non-residents generally have different back-
country use patterns. Residents are more often responsible for
off-road vehicle use, including snowmobiles. Backpacking, hiking
and camping may be more evenly divided, while ski developments
generally draw recreationists from long distances. •*•
Although the intensity of use lis uncertain, the locations of
recreational activities generally fall into three categories:
major established tourist attractions (e.g., Yellowstone and
Grand Teton National Parks); areas near population centers (e.g.,
Grand Mesa National Forest, near Grand Junction); and recreational
areas with otherwise limited recreational opportunities (e.g.,
Black Hills National Forest in Wyoming and South Dakota). Table
12-59 lists some major areas which are likely to experience
increased use because of regionwide energy development. If access
to these areas is limited or controlled, the bulk of the growing
demand will fall on adjacent non-designated areas which still
have a strong aesthetic appeal.
An important limitation in projecting recreational demands
is the difficulty of anticipating trends in recreational styles.
For example, such technological innovations as snowmobiling are
recent phenomena. Hydrofoil and shallow-draft boats make many
western rivers available for recreational use. Similar uncer-
tainty exists in land management practices. Current trends are
to increase restrictions on wilderness and backcountry areas, but
economics encourages the Forest Service to promote dispersed
recreational activities by building trails and improving access.
873
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TABLE 12-59:
MAJOR BACK-COUNTRY AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
INCREASED PRESSURE DUE TO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT3
State
National Forests,
Parks and Monuments
Included wilderness
And Primitive Areas
Colorado
Grand Mesa N.F.
Rio Grande N.F.
Routt N.F.
White River N.F.
San Juan N.F.
Black Canyon of the
Gunnison' N.M.
Mesa Verde N.P.
Theodore Roosevelt N.P.
La Garita W.A.; Upper
Rio Grande P.A.
Rawah W.A.; Mt. Zirkel
W.A.
Maroon Bells/Snowmass
W.A.; Gore Range/
Eagle's Nest W.A.;
Flat Tops W.A.
San Juan W.A.
New Mexico
Carson N.F.
Sante Fe N.F.
Chaco Canyon N.M.
Wheeler Peak W.A.
San Pedro Parks W.A.
South Dakota
Black Hills N.F.
Utah
Ashley N.F.
Dixie N.F.
Fishlake N.F.
Arches N.P.
Dinosaur N.M.
Zion N.P.
Glen Canyon R.A.
Cedar Breaks N.M.
Capital Reef N.P.
Canyonlands N.P.
Bryce Canyon N.P.
Hovenweep N.M.
High Uintas P.A.
Wyoming
Bighorn N.F.
Bridger-Teton N.F.
Medicine Bow N.F.
Shoshone N.F.
Yellowstone N.P.
Grand Teton N.P.
Bighorn Canyon R.A.
Flaming Gorge R.A.
Cloud Peak P.A.
Teton W.A.; Bridger
W.A.
North Absaroka W.A.;
Popo Agie P.A.;
Washakie W.A.? Glacier
P.A.
N.F. = National Forest P.A.
N.M. = National Monument R.A.
N.P. = National Park W.A.
Primitive Area
Recreation Area
Wilderness Area
874
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Energy-related population growth will probably result in
potential damage to vegetation, and animal communities in four
areas: western Colorado, the Powder River coal region, the Four
Corners area, and the lignite fields of western North Dakota. In
western Colorado, the large population influx is expected to
locate in the midst of prime outdoor recreation areas; conse-
quently, this area is likely to experience the greatest adverse
ecological impacts. The Powder River and North Dakota areas will
also experience substantial population increases; however, in
these^ areas, outdoor recreationists will be limited in their
choice of wilderness or backcountry areas. The three closest
such areas (the Theodore Roosevelt National Memorial Park, the
Black Hills National Forest, and the Bighorn National Forest)
will receive concentrated use. The Custer National Forest, with
few developed trails, campgrounds, or other facilities, may
remain comparatively unused. The energy-related population
growth in Utah and New Mexico (Four Corners) is expected to be
comparatively small. Thus, although high quality wilderness and
backcountry areas surround the area, these areas should not
experience significant usage increases resulting from regional
energy development. Some local impacts will occur, as discussed
in Chapter 6 and 7.
12.5.4 Surface Mining and Reclamation
The impact of surface mining depends on the extent of
mining', 'the reclamation practices employed, the existing
conditions of soil and climate, and the objectives of the recla-
mation activity. Important variables of reclamation practice
are practices in separation of topsoil and subsoil from the over-
burden, adjustments of topography, mulching, seeding, fertil-
ization, and irrigation. The variety of existing conditions
ranges from the rich soils of the Northern Great Plains with
their low, to moderate rainfall to the poor soils and arid climate
of the desert southwest. The objectives of reclamation can vary
from restoring natural conditions to establishing range grasses,
providing of cover and forage for wildlife, and production of,
crops. Restoration of mined lands for productive use have also
included proposals for commercial or recreational activities such
as lakes, golf courses, or race tracks in locations near urban
areas.1 This section primarily addresses the process of recla-
mation for the establishment of biological resources, which can
include native species, game .animals, or croplands. Following
a discussion of the extent of mining as projected by the regional
scenario for the eight-state study area, this section identifies
some of the major factors that affect reclamation, and describes
For examples of economically successful projects, see:
Ozarks Regional Commission. Mined-Land Redevelopment; Kansas,
Missouri, Oklahoma. Wichita, Kans.: Wichita State University,
1973, p. 6-8.
875
-------
the potential for success and the problems in reestablishing
vegetation. A review of selected issues and alternatives for
dealing with reclamation problems is provided in Section 14.3.
Since the early 1970's, a great deal of laboratory and field
research has been performed to determine whether, and by what
means, mine spoils can be reclaimed in the major western coal
fields. Some critics express uncertainty about the soundness of
long-range predictions based on the results of these short-term
tests. Their reservations largely arise because of the inevi-
table lack of data concerning the long term success of reclama-
tion.
The total acreage ultimately disturbed by surface mining
under the three demand cases postulated for the eight-state sce-
nario is summarized by sub-area in Table 12-60. These sub-areas'
reflect both the geographic distribution of major coal resource
areas and natural groupings of biotic communities. The Northern
Great Plains includes the coals of eastern Montana and northern
Wyoming and North Dakota's lignite, all part of the Fort Union
Formation; the Intermountain sub-area includes coal deposits in
Utah, western Colorado and western Wyoming; and the Southwest
Deserts include the coals of northern New Mexico and adjacent
Arizona. It is possible to generalize about the conditions that
influence the success of reclamation in these three major sub-
areas within the eight-state study area, as summarized below.
A. Existing Conditions Affecting Success of Reclamation
The climate, soils, and overburden characteristics are the
most important locational factors determining the success of
reclamation. Precipitation is an important component of climate.
As indicated in the following section, approximately 6-10 inches
of precipitation are generally considered to be the lower limit
for successful revegetation, although the frequency and timing
of this precipitation may be more important than the total
amount.^
Surface soils within the eight-state study area vary greatly
in sand content, organic content, and depth, and a single mine
often contains several soil types which differ in their suit-
ability for use in reclamation. Thus, the following general
observations are regional trends rather than uniformly occurring
conditions. Rock strata overlaying coal deposits (overburden)
also vary greatly. However, throughout the three sub-areas,
certain characteristics typify the major geological formations
where coal is found.
Grant Davis, U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
Seam Program, Personal Communication, November 3, 1976.
876
-------
TABLE 12-60: SURFACE ACREAGE ULTIMATELY DISTURBED BY MINING
Northern Great Plains
North Dakota Lignites
Powder River*3
Intermountainc
Southwest Deserts^
Low Demand Case
446,700 acres
395,700
39,900
68,900
Nominal Case
480,000
581,600
47,600
121,900
Low Nuclear
Availability Case
540,000
813,400
79,400
179,000
Includes Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Hettinger, McKenzie, McLean, Mercer, Oliver,
Slope, Stark, and Williams Counties. Assumed average seam thickness of 12.5
feet.
Includes Powder River, Bighorn and Rosebud Counties, Montana, assumed average
seam thickness 27 feet; and Campbell, Johnson, and Sheridan Counties, Wyoming,
assumed average seam thickness 64 feet.
Includes Rio Blanco, Garfield and Huerfano Counties, assuming 1/3 of the
projected mines are underground, and an average seam thickness of 7 feet.
Includes San Juan County, New Mexico, with an assumed average seam thickness
of 10.3 feet; and Kane and Garfield Counties, Utah, assuming half the pro-
jected mines are underground, and an average seam thickness of 10 feet.
1. Northern Great Plains
Most precipitation in the Northern Great Plains falls in
spring and summer showers2 and averages between 12 and 16 inches
annually on most coal lands in the area. The timing of this
Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P^L. Sims. Guidelines for
Reveqetation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the
States, Range Science Series No. 16. Fort Collins, Colo.
Colorado State University, Range Science Department, 1974.
877
-------
rainfall is offset somewhat by the drying effects of the prevailing
northwesterly winds,! especially in the western part of this
sub-area. As much as 20 percent of the rain that falls during
the growing season may evaporate without penetrating to plant
roots.2 In addition, the climate is erratic,3 and while the
overall climate favors revegetation, periods of lowered moisture
will reduce the success of seedlings or alter the composition of
vegetation.
Soils in the area generally have adequate nutrient and
organic matter content to support plant growth. Topsoils may be
6-30 inches in depth, and weathered subsoil extends as deep as
20 feet in western North Dakota.1* Topsoil varies with topo-
graphy, and soils on steep slopes erode so that deep soils do not
develop. Soils on level terrain are much deeper.
High salt content is a problem in some Northern Great
Plains soils.5 These soils are poorly drained, minimally per-
meable and dry to a hard crust. Runoff from such soils is high,
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14. Odgen, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974; and Wali, M.K. , and F.M. Sandoval. '^Regional Site
Factors and Revegetation Studies in Western North Dakota," in
Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems ofuLand Reclamation in
Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.i University>of North
Dakota Press, 1975.
2
Curry, R.R. "Biogeochemical Limitations on Western Recla-
mation," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land
Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: Uni-
versity of North Dakota Press, 1975.
Thornthwaite, C.W. "Climate and Settlement on the Great
Plains," in U.S., Department of Agriculture. Yearbook of Agri-
culture. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1941.
Wali and Sandoval. "Regional Site Factors and Revegetation."
Sandoval, F.M. , et al. "Lignite Mine Spoils in the^Northern
Great Plains: Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation."
Paper presented before the Research and Applied Technology Sym-
posium on Mined Land Reclamation. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Bituminous
Coal Research, 1973; and Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Poten-
tials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great
Plains, General Technical Report INT-14. Odgen, Utah: U.S.,
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest
and Range Experiment Station, 1974.
878
-------
and they tend to erode. Soils in Wyoming and Montana tend to
be deficient in phosphorus, while North Dakota soils may have
insufficient nitrogen-1
Material below the soil and above the coal (overburden) in
the Fort Union Formation is typically high enough in sodium to
limit or prevent plant growth ?• Overburden above lignite is more
likely to present sodium problems than is the overburden over-
lying the subbituminous coal of the Fort Union Formation.3 These
spoils are also susceptible to erosion, especially under the
relatively high rainfall of North Dakota. Overburden generally
contains low or marginally adequate amounts of mineral nutrients?
plant cover almost always responds to nitrogen and phosphorus
fertilizers.4. Potassium is sometimes adequate,5 but calcium may
be needed.
2. Intermountain Sub-area
The varied topography and climate of the Intermountain sub-
area are the major determinants of the distribution of the three
major vegetation types found over coal lands: foothill shrubland,
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14. Odgen, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974..
2
Sandoval, F.M., et al. "Lignite Mine Spoils in the Northern
Great Plains: Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation."
Paper presented before the Research and Applied Technology Sym-
posium on Mined Land Reclamation. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Bituminous
Coal Research, 1973.
Packer. Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land.
4
Meyn, R.L., J. Holechek, and E. Sundberg. "Short and Long
Term Fertilizer Requirements for Reclamation of Mine Spoils at
Colstrip, Montana," pp. 266-79 in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings
of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3: Reclamation
Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975; and
Power, J.F., et al. "Factors Restricting Revegetation of Strip-
Mine Spoils," pp. 336-46, in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the
Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3: Reclamation Section.
Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975.
Sindelar, B.W., R.L. Hodder, and M. Majorous. Surface
Mined Reclamation Research in Montana, Research Report No. 5TJ.
Bozeman, Mont.: Montana Agricultural .Experiment Station, 1972.
c
Power, et al. "Factors Restricting Revegetation."
879
-------
pinyon-juniper woodland, and mountain shrub communities. The
foothill shrublands generally receive from 9 to more than 15
inches of rainfall annually. Most precipitation falls as snow,
with erratic showers of rain in spring and early summer. July
and August tend to be dry, and native plants are often dormant
during this period. Year-to-year variation is wide, and in
drought years only 6-7 inches of rainfall may occur.1 Pinyon-
juniper woodlands at 4,000-7,000 feet receive 12-15 inches of
rainfall annually.2 Mountain shrub communities above this zone
receive 15-30 inches of rainfall each year, about half of it as
snow. Generally, precipitation is more favorable to revegetation
at these altitudes than at other elevations in the Intermountain
region.
Soils in the Intermountain sub-area vary greatly, having
developed over a wide variety of original rock. Three major
types are found in the coal-producing regions.3 Soils of dry
sagebrush plateaus, mesas, and foothills in Utah are generally
loamy but poor in organic matter and range from 20 to 60 inches
in depth. Soils of sagebrush and juniper canyonlands, lower
mountain slopes, and barren areas are less than 20 inches deep
and subject to water erosion. Soils on western Colorado coal
lands are loamy, rich in organic matter, and contain a variety
of vegetation types; subsoils may contain clay and may have
permeability problems. These soils are typically deep and are
often farmed for dryland crops. All three of these soil types
may require irrigation.
Because of the area's variable geology, generalizations
about overburden characteristics cannot be made. For example,
in western Colorado, mine spoils from the Mesa Verde formation
are predominately fragmented hard rock and have low water holding
capacity compared to finer materials. Therefore, vegetation is
National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974.
2
Plummer, A.P., D.R. Christenson, and S .B . Hansen. Restoring
Big Game Range in Utah, Publication No. 68-3. Salt Lake City,
Utah: Utah, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Fish
and Game, 1968r and Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado
Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group. Upper Colorado Region
Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: Water Resources
Council, 1971.
Upper Colorado Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group.
Comprehensive Framework Study.
880
-------
difficult to establish and maintain. These spoils are low in
both available phosphorus and nitrogen needed for plant growth.1
Although part of the Mesa Verde formation, overburden in the
western Wyoming Kemmerer coal fields varies considerably. Acid-
producing iron pyrite is present in some strata, while others
are alkaline. The salinity, ease of erosion, high aluminum con-
tent, and low pH (acidity/alkalinity) of some overburden mate-
rials make plant growth difficult. The overburden in this area
generally contains enough mineral nutrients to accommodate the
growth of plants in a greenhouse, although additional nitrogen
helps.2
3. Southwestern Deserts
Precipitation in this area is usually insufficient for
satisfactory revegetation of mine spoils without supplemental
irrigation. Annual rainfall averages 5-8 inches, but in excep-
tional years may range from 3 to 12 inches.3 Rain falls largely
in late summer (July through September); spring and fall seasons
are generally dry. 4 Rainfall is often very irregular,-* and con-
ditions favorable for seeding and establishing plants may occur
naturally only 1 in 10 years.6 The timing of rainfall is partic-
ularly critical; experimental work with one native grass on wild
Berg, W.A. "Revegetation of Land Disturbed by Surface
Mining in Colorado," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems
of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks , N.D.:
University of North Dakota Press, 1975.
2
Lang, R.L. "Reclamation of Strip Mine Spoil Banks in Wyo-
ming." University of Wyoming Agricultural Experiment Station
Research Journal, Vol. 51 (1971).
National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential
of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of
the Ford Foundation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974.
4
Aldon, E.F., and H.W. Springfield. "Problems and Tech-
niques in Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali,
M.D., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western
North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: University of North Dakota
Press, 1975.
Gould, W.L., D. Rai, and P.L. Wierenga. "Problems in
Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali, M.K.,
ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North
America. Grand Forks, N.D. : University of North Dakota Press , 1975.
Aldon and Springfield. "Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils."
881
-------
lands in New Mexico showed that it could be planted with 80-percent
success during only 2 weeks in the year; success fell rapidly to
zero both before and after this period.1 In areas such as Ari-
zona's Black Mesa, high, gusty winds occur throughout the year.
This enhances evaporation and thus results in inadequate soil
moisture, even though rainfall may reach 12 inches annually.2
Soils in the arid coal regions of Arizona and New Mexico are
generally poorly developed, hold little moisture, and are high in
salt content. Moreover, these soils are often sandy and the loss
of vegetation through overgrazing leads to erosion. Drifting
and blowing soils can easily bury seedlings or reduce plant cover
by abrasion.^
Mine spoils in the southwest may also pose problems. For
example, in the Fruitland Formation in the San Juan Basin, the
sandstones and shales generally contain excessive amounts of
sodium, low quantities of phosphorus, and variable amounts of
nitrogen.4 The development of soil-based mineral cycling systems
Aldon, E.F. "Establishing Alkali Sacaton on Harsh Sites in
the Southwest." Journal of Range Management, Vol. 28 (March"
1975), pp. 129-92.
2
Thames, J.I., and T. R. Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation in the
Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Arizona,"
in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in
Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: University of North
Dakota Press, 1975.
National Academy of Sciences.. Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974; Thames and
Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation."; Gould, W.L., D. Rai, and P.L.
Wierenga. "Problems in Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New
Mexico," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Recla-
mation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: University
of North Dakota Press, 1975; and Aldon, E.F., andH.W. Springfield.
"Problems and Techniques in Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils in New
Mexico," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land
Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: Uni-
versity of North Dakota Press, 1975.
Gould, Rai, and Wierenga. "Problems in Reclamation."
882
-------
takes place slowly. Centuries might be required before vegetation
stabilizes,1 and 10-30 years may be required for natural revege-
tation.2
B. Probable Success of Revegetation
The success of a reclamation effort and the techniques
needed to achieve it are very much influenced by the objectives
of a reclamation program and local features. The differences in
soil and overburden characteristics described above may require
slightly different treatments between areas within a single mine,
and soils and underlying strata can vary markedly in their suit-
ability for reclamation within a few miles.3 However, it is
difficult to predict the success of revegetation in many western
locations on the basis of available experimental results and
field observations. As indicated above, local climatic condi-
tions and the unreliability of rainfall over most of the area can
potentially make the difference between success and failure in
revegetation efforts. Further, in most areas, current experience
covers a period of 6 years or less, which is not sufficient for
the long-term stability of revegetated areas to be assessed.4
Reclamation efforts in the western U.S. will be limited most
consistently by the timing and quantity of moisture available to
plants. ^ The amount of precipitation and its seasonal distribution
National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation, Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974.
2
Cook, C.W., R.M, Hyde, and P.L. Sims. Guidelines for Reveg-
etation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the Western
States, Range Science Series No. 16. Fort Collins, Colo.: Colo-
rado State University, Range Science Department, 1974.
For example, soils of poor texture and low organic content
can be improved by mulching. Soils of low nutrient content can
be fertilized with nitrogen, phosphorus, or other limiting elements.
4
Farmer, E.E. , et al. Revegetation Research on the Decker
Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162. Odgen,
Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Inter-
mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974.
See for example: NAS. Rehabilitation Potential of Western
Coal Lands; Cook, Hyde, and Sims. Revegetation and Stabilization;
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of
Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14. Odgen, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture , Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974.
883
-------
largely determine the likelihood of successful revegetation, even
though soils vary in their ability to retain the amount that falls
in a manner which makes it available to plants.
As indicated in the previous descriptions, areas generally
receiving an average of 10 or more inches of rainfall per year
can be made to support some plant growth without supplemental
irrigation.1 When mined lands have been graded with care and
planted properly with suitable species, some areas with as little
as 6 inches of rain have been revegetated.2 in most of the semi-
arid West, however, rainfall varies widely from year to year.
Under these circumstances, periodic dry years or droughts lasting
several years must be expected, and the success of revegetation
at such times will be curtailed, especially in marginal areas.3
The timing of rainfall is crucial to the establishment of plant
cover. A lack of precipitation shortly after planting can reduce
seedling success, and a difference of only 1-2 inches over the
entire growing season may have significant consequences depending
on its timing. Because of this, there will be a significant
number of cases where reclamation efforts will either fail or be
only marginally successful, especially where poor soil or top-
soil characteristics are combined with an arid climate. Erratic
rainfall patterns over the lifetime of a given mine may also be
expected in years when seedling failure is unavoidable.
Over the long term, it will probably be possible to estab-
lish a cover of range grasses capable of containing erosion on
most sites in the Northern Great Plains and in the higher foot-
hill coal fields receiving adequate rainfall. However, this
long-term trend may be punctuated by setbacks from periods of
drought, and provision for irrigation would mitigate this. During
these periods, intensive management will be required for both
seeded and established vegetation. Revegetation of some of the
drier foothill sites will have a lesser chance for success,
depending primarily on stresses over and above those arising
from climate (such as those resulting from soil salinity and
provisions for irrigation). Finally, in view of experience and
National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation, Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974.
2
Grant Davis, U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Ser-
vice SEAM Program. Personal Communications, November 3, 1976.
NAS. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands.
Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of
Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974.
884
-------
the many adverse influences arrayed against desert sites,
revegetation will be difficult unless the sites are prepared
carefully and seedlings are planted, intensively managed, and
irrigated, with grazing and public access strictly controlled.
C. Reclamation for Specific Biological Objectives
Four biological objectives for reclamation are restoring
natural vegetation, providing wildlife habitat, establishing
livestock forage, and establishing croplands. Re-establishing
native vegetation is difficult, and in some instances the orig-
inal vegetation has not been present for decades or longer.
Reclamation for wildlife is a more complicated process than
restoration for livestock forage or cropland use. In contrast to
grazing or farming, wildlife restoration must meet the needs of
a relatively large number of animal species, which in turn
requires a greater variety of plant species. Site character-
istics, such as diverse topography and exposure, also play a
large part in determining both the variety of vegetation that
becomes established and the value of the habitat to wildlife.1
In addition to topographical variability, wildlife diversity
and abundance are related to the spatial patterning of vegeta-
tion. A mosaic of grasses, low shrubs and thickets, and taller
trees, combined with available free water, are necessary for many
western species such as sharptail and sage grouse, jackrabbits
and cottontails, and many birds of prey. A combination of nutri-
tive food plants adequate to meet the varied needs of grazers,
browsers, and seed and fruit eaters is necessary to re-establish
the full complement of native fauna, including insects that are
important food sources.
Several factors limit the success of woody plants. First,
these plants grow slower than grasses and forbs. To speed the
process, nursery stock may be planted, but this is expensive.
Second, once planted, young shrubs and trees need protection
from wildlife and livestock for 10-15 years before they can
One example of the beneficial effects of diverse topography
on wildlife values is the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah mine,
which has helped maintain or increase the area's populations of
grouse, pheasant, deer, and other small vertebrates. Prior to
the establishment of state requirements for grading to a gently
rolling contour, the spoils were left standing with only the
ridgetops flattened. Planted shrub, grass, and forb species,
selected for their food and cover value, have established thick
stands in the valleys between the close-set spoil ridges where
runoff provides high soil moisture content. Wildlife finds both
food and shelter from winter storms, which typically cause large
losses of upland wildlife. Western states now require mined
lands to be regraded to some extent.
885
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tolerate br.owsing. Third, natural rainfall may be insufficient
or competition from other plants for the limited moisture on
mine spoils may inhibit success.
Reclamation may attempt to restore grazing alone. In the
Northern Great Plains, particularly North Dakota, mined land may
be planted to crops. This would favor animal species character-
istic of early grassland succession rather than woody vegetation.!
Intermountain cool areas are less homogenous, and thus it is more
difficult to specify what changes in wildlife communities may
take place. Unless shrubby cover is restored on foothill areas,
however, deer and elk will be unable to use mined lands for winter
range, and many western slope coals now underlie present big
game winter ranges. As discussed in Chapter 7, strip mine areas
in the desert southwest have already experienced stress from
overgrazing, with an attendant loss of soil that will make
restoration of rangelands more difficult. Also, even if success-
fully restored, these lands will likely be of low productivity.
Croplands may also be established in reclaimed areas and
will likely expand in the eight-state region. The growth of agri-
culture may occur in the same time frame as the energy develop-
ment scenario. A recent study2 reports that new cropland is
currently added at a nationwide rate of 1.25 million acres per
year. At this rate, some 31 million acres will be brought under
cultivation by the year 2000. However, a rapidly growing world
food demand may result in the acceleration of agricultural
expansion. Presently, only 81 percent (380 million acres) of
the arable land in the U.S. is cropped. Thus, a theoretical
maximum of 90 million acres could be added by 2000, not counting
In these "replacement" or successional communities in the
Northern Great Plains, antelope, deer, grouse, jackrabbits, and
a variety of small vertebrates will be infrequent on mined lands
restored for grazing. Burrowing animals will be limited by the
texture of the spoils themselves; black-footed ferrets and bur-
rowing owls, normally associated closely with prairie dog col-
onies will also be affected.
2
Pimental, D., et al. "Land Degradation: Effects on Food
and Energy Resources." Science, Vol. 194 (October 8, 1976),
pp. 149-55.
886
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marginal lands requiring drainage or irrigation,1 By comparison,
land-use estimates for new energy facilities presented in this
section for potential reclamation total only 1.7 million acres
by the end of the century, much of which may ultimately be used
for crops.2
12.5.5 Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution
A great deal of concern exists concerning the potential
damage of widespread SO? emissions on vegetation in the western
energy resource states.5 For example, livestock grazing is a
major economic activity, and the potential threat of energy
development to rangeland productivity can become a major issue
in the eight-state area. Forests and other vegetation are also
regarded as important resources. In view of projected increases
in livestock grazing of up to 80 percent by the year 2000,4 even
small, chronic declines in productivity over large areas of the
West could have measurable economic impacts.
The impacts of SC>2 emissions, both directly and through the
formation of sulfates, including acid rain, have received much
attention, and adverse effects on vegetation have been widely
documented. However, two major knowledge gaps prevent investi-
gators from using regional SC>2 emission figures to predict the
In addition to new cropland being brought under cultiva-
tion, existing cropland is currently being lost at a national
rate of 2.5 million acres per year to highways and urbanization.
Since 1935, 100 million acres have been lost because of soil
erosion. Most of these represent lost native ecosystems and
wildlife habitat (although farms abandoned due to erosion even-
tually regain their value as habitat, at least for successional
species). Thus, between 1975 and 2000 the nation may lose
between 93 and 152 million acres of rangeland and native ecosys-
tems from activities other than energy development, and reclama-
tion for agricultural purposes may have a high priority according
to agricultural interests.
2
Highest land demands occur in the Northern Great Plains
where reclamation for cropland is most feasible.
Gordon, C.C., and P.C. Tourangeau. "Biological Effects of
Coal-Fired Power Plants," in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the
Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 5. Terrestrial Ecosystems
Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975,
pp. 509-30.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Effects of Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains: A Review of Major
Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development. Den-
ver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975.
887
-------
possibility of chronic S02 damage or acid rainfall: insufficient
knowledge of the mechanisms by which S02 emissions may be trans-
lated into particulate sulfate fallout rates or low rainfall pH,
and inadequate sophistication of dispersion models at a regional
level.-'-
According to the air impact analysis in Section 12.2, SC>2
emissions in Montana and North Dakota could exceed 3 million tons
per year (tpy) in 2000 if scrubbers are not used, and would
reach 700,000 tpy in North Dakota and 1,400,000 tpy in Montana
with scrubbers. Impacts in the oil shale development region,
especially in Rio Blanco County, Colorado, are further compli-
cated by the irregularity of the surrounding terrain, which can
permit pollutants to be trapped in low-lying areas or cause
plumes to impact on prominent ridges or mountainsides. Although
it is not possible to make definitive statements about the like-
lihood of either particulate sulfate fallout or acid rain in
these areas, the question may be approached by analogy with
experiments or case histories as described below.
The effects of air pollution on the structure and function
of plant communities can be separated into three classes:^ unde-
tectable or potentially beneficial effects; chronic harmful
effects; and acute harmful effects.3 Undetectable or potentially
beneficial impacts are associated with low pollution loads.
Although there may be no detectable impact on individual plants,
pollutants enter the mineral cycle of the ecosystem via normal
pathways. This effect may not be harmful and may improve pro-
ductivity if a particular mineral (such as sulfur) is in short
supply.
Chronic effects arise from intermediate pollution loads that
result in damage to susceptible plant species, such as pines,
typically over periods of months or a few years. Such effects
may include lowered productivity, reduced reproduction, or
Ground-level concentrations used in this section are
derived from dispersion models which may have an error range of
up to 50 percent. However, conservative assumptions built into
the models are thought to result in predicted /levels high enough
to compensate for this error. The net result'is a figure which
may exceed, but probably does not underestimate, actual field
conditions.
2
Smith, W.H. "Air Pollution—-Effects on the Structure and
Function of the Temperate Forest Ecosystem." Environmental Pol-
lution, Vol. 6 (February 1974), pp. 111-29.
The term "harmful" effects here refers to reduction in
plant growth or productivity.
888
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increased susceptibility to disease or insect infestation. Where
species are affected differently, competitive relationships may
be altered and the composition of species in a community changed.
Acid rain can be placed in this category. In addition to its
direct impacts on plants, acid rain is believed to cause increased
leaching of nutrients from soils. The net effect on the entire
plant community may be to reduce biomass and productivity.1 This
loss of mineral nutrients may be reversible only after very long
periods of time, if at all*
Acute impacts occur when ambient pollutant concentrations -
are high enough to cause acute damage to plants. If sufficiently
severe, this impact can eliminate species from the affected
community. Since woody plants are often more susceptible to
acute damage than are herbaceous species, loss of dominants may
change the physical structure of the vegetation. Extensive veg-
etation loss results in erosion and affects mineral cycling
through direct soil loss* In most ecosystems, these effects will
combine to reduce the amount of primary plant production avail-
able to the animal community; further ecosystem simplification
can take place as a result of reduced energy flow through the
food web.
Acute and chronic impacts lessen the economic value of the
vegetation and reduce its complexity and, perhaps, its ability
to respond adaptively to other stresses such as drought. Low-
level impacts may actually increase productivity in some circum-
stances. The following discussion covers acute-impacts first,
followed by chronic and low-level effects.
A. Acute Impacts
Leaf injury (damage) from short-term exposure generally
requires very high levels of SO-. Concentrations of SO2 which
experimentally produce acute damage in 2-7 hours for a number of
common western range grasses, important wildlife browse plants,
trees, and crops are tabulated in Table 12-61; these experiments
indicate that damage occurs between 0.4 and 10 parts per million
(ppm). Results were selected to show the effects of exposures
corresponding roughly to the shortest averaging times (3-hour and
24-hour averages) used to calculated maximum ground-level S02
concentrations for the six development scenarios. Peak values
for the site-specific scenarios are described in Section 12.2.
Extreme high values, resulting from plume impaction on high terrain,
However, ecosystem impacts may not be simply additive
because changed competitive relationships can bring about the
dominance of new species able to tolerate pollution stress better
than competitors.
889
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TABLE 12-61:
SELECTED SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS WHICH
EXPERIMENTALLY PRODUCED ACUTE INJURY IN
WESTERN PLANT SPECIES
Species
Grasses
W. Wheatgrass3
Crested Wheatgrassb
Need le-and-Thread
grass3
Blue Gramab
Galletab
Indian ricegrassb
Shrubs
Big Sageb
Rubber Rabbitbrushb
Mormon Teab
Snowberryb
Curl-leaf mountain
mahogany*5
Gambel Oakb
Fringed sagewort3
Trees
Subalpine firb
Utah juniper and Rock
Mtn. juniperb
Pinyonb
Ponderosa pine
Crops
Alfalfa
Winter Wheat
Sulfur Dioxide
Concentration
1.0-1.5 ppm
6 ppm
1- 1.5 ppm
6 ppm
10 ppm
0.5 ppm
4 ppm
6 ppm
6 ppm
1 ppm
6 ppm
10 ppm
1 ppm
10 ppm
10 ppm
6 ppm
10 ppm
0 . 5 ppm
1 ppm
0.39 ppm
0.5 ppm
0.5 ppm
0.4 ppm
2 ppm
1,35 ppra
Duration
4 hours
2 hours
4 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
4 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
7 hours
6-7 hours
6. '2 hours
4 hours
4-8 hours
7 hourn
3 hours
1-2 hours
Type of Observation
Conditions
Laboratory, greenhouse-
grown plants
Field fumigation
Laboratory, greenhouse-
grown plants
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
• Laboratory, greenhouse-
grown plants
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigation
Field fumigationb
Laboratory transplanted
stockc
Laboratory transo] anted
stockc
Laboratory
j
Laboratory
Field and Greenhouse
£umigationc
Laboratory, greenhouse-
grown plants6
Field fumigation0
Laboratory, greenhouse
plants0
Tingey, D.T., R.W. Field, and L. Bard. "Physiological Responses of Vegetation
to Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions," in Lewis, R.A., N.R. Glass, and A.S.
Lefohn, eds. The Bioenvironmental Impact of a Coal-Fired Power Plant, 2nd
Interim Report: Colstrip, Montana, EPA-600/3-76-013. Corvallis, Oreg.: Cor-
va.llis Environmental Research Laboratory, 1976.
bHill, A.C., et al. "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation to SO- and to SO2
and NO, Combined." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 24
(February 1974), pp. 153-57.
°Altman, Philip L-, and Dorothy S. Dittmer, eds. Biology Data Book, 2nd ed.
Bethesda, Md.: Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology,
1973, Vol. 2.
Tingey, D.T., et al. "Foliar Injury Responses of Eleven Plant Species to
Ozone/Sulfur Dioxide Mixtures." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 7 (February
1973) , pp. 201-208.
eZimmerman, P.W. In Proceedings of the United States Technical Conference on
Air Pollution, Washington, D.C., 1950.New York, N.Y.:McGraw-Hill^1952,"
p. 127.
890
-------
may be as much as 0.8 ppm,1 while in the ventilated areas with
flat terrain and lower sulfur coal highest 3-hour maxima are down
to 0.13 ppm.^ Power plants, Synthoil plants, and TOSCO II (the
Oil Shale Company) plants create the highest 3-hour average con-
centrations. These maxima approach concentrations that have pro-
duced experimental injury in ponderosa pine and alfalfa. More
typical 3-hour periods produce ground-level concentrations one-
tenth to one-hundredth as high.
However, large areas of vegetation would not be expected to
experience acute toxicity under the worst dispersion conditions
considered. High ground-level concentrations result from direct
impaction of a plume on high terrain. The highest modeled 3-
hour concentration, 0.76 ppm from the 100,000 barrels per day
TOSCO II plant"at Rifle, occurs under these circumstances. Here,
concentrations remain consistently high throughout the averaging
period, but the affected area is quite small (roughly 1 or 2
square miles).
For most scenarios, ground-level concentrations will be 3-10
times lower than concentrations known to cause acute injury in
fumigation experiments. In some scenarios, however, irregular
terrain may result in infrequent plume impaction that could raise
ground concentrations to levels which may cause acute damage to
sensitive species. Some visible damage to ponderosa pine could
occur within limited areas, especially in southern Utah and
western Colorado. Elsewhere, sensitive species may be exposed to
S0~ levels near, but below, known damage levels. Evergreens are
susceptible year-round, but the worst dispersion conditions over
most of the eight-state region occur in the winter when most
vegetation species are in a seasonal minimum of activity.
B» Chronic Impacts
Chronic damage to plants typically occurs at much lower con-
centrations than does acute damage. The premature loss of
needles observed near the Mount Storm power plant in West
Virginia3 was associated with average S02 concentrations of 0.01
ppm, although 1-hour maxima as high as 0.36 ppm were recorded.
Reductions of 15 percent in the yield weights of grain have been
reported for winter wheat under chronic S02 levels averaging
For the Rifle scenario, see Chapter 8.
2
For the Gillette scenario, see Chapter 9.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Con-
trol Office. Mount Storm, West Virginia/German, Maryland and Luke,
Maryland/Kaiser, West Virginia; Air Pollution Abatement Activ-
ity, APTD-0656. Research Triangle Part, N.C.: Environmental
Protection Agency, 1971.
891
-------
0.015-0.05 ppm.1 Chronic damage to alfalfa has been observed at
concentrations between 0.024 and 0.051 ppm.2 All these species
are especially sensitive to SO-.
Analysis of air impacts in the site-specific scenarios showed
that multiple plume interactions seldom occur, and when they do,
their cumulative effect on ground-level concentrations is less
than the peak levels modeled for the individual plants. Conse-
quently, in this regional discussion where the exact locations of
the emission sources are not known, it is assumed that maximum
ground-level concentrations can still be estimated in terms of
individual plants, with the understanding that these impacts may
be felt in many locations in the region as a whole.3
Using 24-hour averaging times, worst-case concentrations
range between 0.003 ppm (Lurgi plant, Beulah) and 0.06 ppm (Power
Plant, Rifle).4 Assuming the cut-off point for chronic damage is
0.01 ppm, an examination of the peak 24-hour averages predicted
for the local scenarios shows that concentrations exceeding this
level can generally be expected downwind of power plants, at
least at some time. However, these are infrequent peaks and
cover much shorter periods than those usually associated with
observed chronic S02 damage to plants in the field. Most of the
time, 24-hour averages will be one-tenth or less of these peaks,
which puts them below the harmful levels cited here. Thus,
occasional 24-hour periods will probably occur when sensitive
plants such as alfalfa are exposed to levels of SC>2 which could
cause chronic damage.
Guderian, R., and H. Stratmann. Forschungsberichte des
Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1118. Koln: Westdeutscher Verlag,
1968, p. 5; and Guderian, R., and H. Stratmann. Forschungs-
berichte des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1920. Koln:
Westdeutscher Verlag, 1968, p. 3.
2
Guderian, R., and H. Van Haut. "Detection of S02 Effects
Upon Plants." Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970),
pp. 22-35.
Background SO- data are scarce in the western states. How-
ever, existing figures indicate that typical levels are only a
few yg/m^, too small to make a difference significant to plants
when added to calculated ground-level concentrations arising
from energy facilities.
Peak 24-hour averages for the Escalante power plant are
0.09 ppm and are due to plume impaction; more typical peaks are
0.002 ppm.
892
-------
Ecological damage thought to result from acid rainfall
includes the widespread lowering of rainfall pH in Scandinavia
from long-distance transport of sulfates from England and from
Germany's industrialized Ruhr district.1 In New Hampshire, rain-
fall acidification due to emissions from the urban industrial
complexes of New England has also been documented.2 From these
and other studies, the following points emerge:
1. Mechanisms of Acidification. The mechanisms by which
rainfall is acidified are just now beginning to be
understood qualitatively, and quantitative predic-
tions of the effects on rainfall pH of given S02
emissions cannot yet be made. While some inves-
tigators have concluded that rainfall pH is governed
by strong acids (such as sulfuric acid), others have
presented evidence that weak acids may also be
involved.^ in spite of this lack of agreement, it
is apparent that other ions besides sulfates are
involved in determining the pH of rain. The major
species appear to be sulfates, nitrates, and
chlorides.^ In addition to industrial sources,
large amounts of nitrogen apparently enter the atmos-
phere because of the use of ammonia and nitrate fer-
tilizers. 5 Atmospheric chloride ions, contributing
to the formation of hydrochloric acid, originate
from the sea.
Bolin, B., Chairman. Sweden's Case Study Contributions to
the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment—Air Pol-
lution Across International Boundaries; The Impact on the Envi-
ronment of Sulfur in Air and Precipitation. Stockholm: Royal
Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Kingl. Boktrychereit, P.A.
Norsledt et Soner, 1971.
Whittaker, R.H., et al. "The Hubbard Brook Ecosystem
Study: Forest Biomass and Production." Ecological Monographs,
Vol. 44 (Spring 1974), pp. 233-54.
Frohliger, J.O., and R. Kane. "Precipitation: Its Acidic
Nature." Science, Vol. 189 (August, 8, 1975), pp. 455-57.
4
Likens, G.E., and F.H. Bormann. "Acid Rain: A Serious
Regional Environmental Problem." Science, Vol. 184 (June 14,
1974), pp. 1176-79.
Tabatabai, M.S., and J.M. Laflen. "Nutrient Content of
Precipitation Over Iowa," abstract in First International Sympo-
sium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and
Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University, Atmospheric
Sciences Program, 1975.
893
-------
2. Pathways into Terrestrial Ecosystems. Much of the
sulfur reaching Sweden has been shown to be in the
form of neutral ammonium sulfate compounds. These
particles, which are thought to form catalytically •
or photochemically in the air, enter the ecosystem
as dry fallout. However, when the ammonia is
absorbed by plants, both the remaining ammonia and
the released sulfate ions tend to acidify soils.1
Forest vegetation tends to filter out such partic-
ulates.2 This may expose forests differentially to
acidification problems. However, airborne alkaline
or calcareous dust may increase the pH of rainfall
and thereby counteract the effect of acid-forming
substances in the air.3 It has been suggested that
the pH of rainfall depends jointly on atmospheric
sulfur loading, the amount of dense forest vegeta-
tion in the area, and the extent of calcareous or
limestone soils.'
3. Geographic Variation. Observations of chronic
damage from acid rainfall are not always con-
sistent geographically. Recent efforts to use
tree-ring data to document the impacts of region-
wide reductions in rainfall pH in New England
and Tennessee failed to reveal a statistically
Dochinger, L.S., and T.A. Seliga, "Acid Precipitation and
the Forest Ecosystem: A Report from the First International Sym-
posium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem." Journal
of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 25 (November 1975) ,
pp. 1103-5. Brosset, C. "The Role of Acid Particles in Acidifi-
cation," abstract in First International Symposium on Acid Precipita-
tion and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and Abstracts. Columbus , Ohio:
Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences Programs, 1975.
2
Davis, B.L., et al. The Black Hills as a "Green Area" Sink
for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report, prepared for the
USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Report
75-8. Rapid City, S.D.: South Dakota School of Mines and Tech-
nology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975.
3
Cooper, H.B.H., et al. "Chemical Composition Affecting the
Formation of Acid Precipitation," abstract in First International
Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem, Pro-
gram and Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University,
Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975.
4
Winkler, E.M. "Natural Dust and Acid Rain," an abstract in
First International Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the
Forest Ecosystem, Program and Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio
State University, Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975.
894
-------
significant trend on a regional level, despite
the evidence of the Hubbard Brook Study in New
Hampshire.1 Similarly, using the same method,
no consistent trend in forest productivity has
been discovered in Norway.2 In the northeastern
U.S., a recent investigation found that the rate
of nutrient loss from upland forest watersheds
is still quite low, in spite of the rising acidity
of rainfall.3
Acid rain has also been associated with single large sources,
including large power generation complexes. In studies of the
effects of multiple-plant generation complexes in West Virginia
and Tennessee, premature pine needle drop, damage to crops, and
reduced soil fertility were correlated with acid rain. In these
cases, SO £ emissions were generally greater than individual
plant projections in this technology assessment.4 SC>2 emissions
densities at levels projected for the Nominal case for the Pow-
der River Region in the Year 2000 (see Section 12.2) are about
one-third the SC>2 emissions densities of the highest industrial-
ized states (e.g., Ohio) in the East, assuming 80-percent S02
removal from power plants. However, in eastern locations, rain-
fall is four to six times greater than in the eight-state study
area. Acid rainfall due to lower emissions densifies and rain-
fall seems less likely to become a regional problem than in the
Cogbill, C.V. "The Effect of Acid Precipitation on Tree
Growth in Eastern North America," abstract in First International
Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem, Pro-
gram and Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University,
Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975.
2
Abrahamsen, G., and B. Tveite. "Impacts of Acid Precipita-
tion on Coniferous Forest Ecosystems," abstract in First Inter-
national Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Eco-
system, Program and Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State
University, Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975.
Johnson, N.M., R.C. Reynolds, and G.E. Likens. "Atmos-
pheric Sulfur: Its Effect on the Chemical Weathering of New
England." Science, Vol. 177 (August 11, 1972), pp. 514-16.
A
There are four plants in the Mount Storm area, totaling
3,400 megawatts-electric (MWe) and emitting 788,000 tons of S02
in 1973. These plants burn high-sulfur coal without scrubbers.
The Shawnee plant in Tennessee is rated at 1,750 MWe and emits
228,600 tons per year (1973). By contrast, the hypothetical
Colstrip power plant will generate 3,000 MWe but will burn low-
sulfur or medium-sulfur coal with scrubbers; its yearly emissions
will be 27,807 tons.
895
-------
eastern U.S. A possible exception is the oil shale area of
western Colorado, where topographic influences may result in the
local accumulation of atmospheric sulfates to reduce rainfall pH
that might harm vegetation.
C. Low-Level Effects
Atmospheric dispersion alone will likely result in low-level
effects around most or all of the large facilities sited in the
eight-state study area. In some areas, especially where disper-
sion is rapid (as in Wyoming), sulfur additions may be so small
as to exert no detectable influence on either soil sulfur levels
or plant productivity. Slightly larger sulfur imputs may enter
the sulfur cycle through direct absorption by plants as SC>2, dry
fallout, or rain scavenging.
12.5.6 Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts
The effects described above will change some existing pat-
tern of stresses to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Consump-
tive water use will result in flow depletion on some rivers.
Especially vulnerable are the San Juan, the White, the Upper
Colorado, and the Yellowstone. Cumulative impacts will also have
adverse effects on the lower Colorado and Missouri. In-stream
flow needs to protect aquatic ecosystems have not been estab-
lished for most of these rivers, but it is expected that with-
drawals could produce adverse impacts in several drainages. In
addition to the physical impact of flow reduction, loss of dilu-
tion capacity increases the risk of harmful impacts due to the
discharge of municipal effluents, agricultural runoff, and con-
taminated groundwater discharge. However, increased salinity
does not appear to be a serious ecological problem. Construction
of water supply systems may involve placing reservoirs on smaller
tributary rivers and streams. These reservoirs can be beneficial
in that they will trap sediment, provide fishery habitat, and can
be used to regulate downstream flows. However, they also may
interfere with spawning runs, destroy valuable riparian habitat,
and build up excessive nutrient enrichment from agricultural
runoff.
Increased backcountry recreational pressure may become a
serious problem to some terrestrial ecosystems, especially high
alpine areas, high- and mid-elevation mountain valleys, and adja-
cent desert watercourses. These habitats are both critical to
maintaining present levels of ecological diversity and limited
in extent. The heaviest population-related impacts will occur
in the Black Hills, the Bighorn Mountains, and the mountainous
areas surrounding the Colorado oil shale deposits.
Because of the extensive land use for strip mining in the
Northern Great Plains, reclamation will be important. Reclamation
896
-------
success depends primarily on the extent and timing of rainfall,
soil type and overburden characteristics, and the resiliency of
plant and animal communities in restoration. The Southwestern
deserts will be most difficult to reclaim because of poor rain-
fall, soil characteristics, and overgrazing. Revegetation will
probably be successful in the remainder of the eight-state region,
but wildlife abundance and diversity will be reduced if grazing
or crop production are the major reclamation objectives.
Development of large numbers of S02 emission sources over
the western region is not expected to result in widespread damage
to vegetation. Although the fate of sulfates in the air is
poorly understood, comparison with recorded cases suggests that
acid rainfall is unlikely to become a widespread problem. Acute
damage to vegetation is expected only where rough terrain causes
plume impaction. The oil shale area of western Colorado is the
only region in which multiple sources are expected to result in
cumulative impacts which could be chronically damaging to vegeta-
tion over areas of more than 1 or 2 square miles.
12.6 HEALTH EFFECTS
12.6.1 Introduction
The energy facilities deployed in our several scenarios will
produce pollutants potentially harmful to health. As indicated
below, these health effects depend on the technologies deployed,
where they are located, levels of development, and the pathways
that potentially toxic materials may follow. In the following
discussion, we identify the potential for health effects from:
several criteria air pollutants; toxic trace elements; radio-
active materials; and organic compounds. Several other potential
health-related effects, such as those resulting from changed
demographic patterns or exposure to noise, are discussed in
Sections 12.4, 12.8, and 12.9.
12,6.2 Selected Criteria Air Pollutants
Ambient air quality standards have been established for the
six most common air pollutants: sulfur dioxide, (S02), particu-
lates, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons (HC), oxides of nitrogen
(NO ), and oxidants. These are frequently referred to as "cri-
teria pollutants" to distinguish them from other emissions not
yet covered by air quality standards. Five of these pollutants
are emitted directly from conversion facilities; oxidants are
viewed as secondary pollutants because the mix known as oxidants
results from reactions in the atmosphere.
Ambient air quality standards have been established on a
dual basis. Primary standards are designed for the protection
of public health. Secondary standards are more restrictive in
that they are protective not only of the public health but also
897
-------
of environmental components such as vegetation, materials, and
aesthetics.-'- Much of the following discussion compares our
findings against these ambient air quality standards.
A. Sulfur Dioxide
SC>2 can aggravate a variety of respiratory problems, such
as asthma and bronchitis, especially in susceptible populations
such as the aged, premature infants, and those suffering lung
or heart deficiencies. However, there is disagreement as to the
levels required to produce these effects.
Present S02 levels are low in most rural locations where
energy development may occur, between 2 and 20 micrograms per
cubic meter (ug/m^). Development of energy facilities, particu-
larly power plants, will contribute to higher S02 levels as
summarized in Sections 3.2 and 12.2. However, the increase from
either energy facilities or urban activities will be below both
primary and secondary standards for all averaging times. In
western Colorado, plume impaction on unpopulated elevated terrain
will cause primary standards to be violated.
Alternative scrubber efficiencies significantly affect
SC>2 concentrations. If scrubbers are not used, areas other
than those located, in .rough terrain would experience'
plume impaction that could result in concentrations 'ex-
ceeding the ambient standards designed to protect human
health.
Even with 80-percent sulfur removal, a .potential health
problem can result from exposure to sulfates. Whether this is
a problem depends largely on the assumptions used to assess the
conversion rates of S02 to sulfate and the sulfate levels which
are damaging to health. Rate estimates vary from 1-to 20-percent
There is considerable disagreement concerning the validity
of these standards. There is general agreement that the funda-
mental bases of these standards, especially the epidemiologic
studies which form the primary technical bases, are generally
inadequate and subject to a substantial margin of uncertainty.
There are those who contend that the standards are unnecessarily
conservative and restrictive, as well as others who maintain that
there is an inadequate margin of safety in the standards, notably
in terms of susceptible populations.
2
In western Colorado, values may exceed standards in some
areas during conditions which do not favor dispersal. On a
regional scale of development, however, the locations of these
areas are not known.
898
-------
conversion of SO^ to sulf ate per hour.^ Twenty-percent conversion
rates are associated with oil-fired power plants.2 If conversion
rates are 10 percent per hour, 24-hour ambient sulfate levels
are as much as two times greater than those projected to produce
increases Jji mortality according to Environmental Protection
Agency studies (Table 12-62).3
Measurements of HC are not available in most rural areas
but high background HC levels (130 yg/m3) have been measured in
the oil shale area of Northwestern Colorado and may occur else-
where. The sources of this HC include vegetation, biological
activity, evaporation from subsurface petroleum deposits, and
present urban industrial activity.
Most HC are generally inoffensive to humans at the levels
encountered even in urban, polluted atmospheres. Some HC are
toxic to plants at low levels. Others, notably the polynuclear
aromatics (PNA), may be cancer-producing even at low levels;
however, this remains to be demonstrated at the levels found in
urban air. Except for these HC standards, controls have been
developed primarily to limit photochemical smog.
Some existing urban areas exceed the current federal 3-hour
ambient air quality standard for HC due to automotive emissions.
Scenario data summarized in Section 3.2 indicate that the stan-
dard will be violated in many areas throughout the West, in part
because of the existing high background levels. The major
sources of HC are urban activities and fugitive losses from
synthetic fuels plants and fuel storage facilities, with power
plant operations being a minor contributor.
The installation and operation of large fossil fuel and
synthetic fuel facilities will also open the possibility of
introducing PNA compounds into areas that have probably been
relatively free of such contaminants. Particulate collection
systems should remove most of the PNA's, but some may be released.
However, PNA's should not present a major hazard to the general
public.
"TJ.S, Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on
Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment and the
Atmosphere. Review of -Research Related to Sulfates in the Atmos-
phere, Committee P-rint. Washington, D.C.i Government Printing
Office, 1976.
o
These faster rates of conversion may be due to the finer
particle size associated with oil-fired power plant emissions.
/
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Position Paper on
Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-007.Research
Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1975 .
899
-------
TABLE 12-62:
HEALTH EFFECTS AND ASSESSMENT
PROJECTIONS FOR SULFATES
Assessment Projections
Scenario3
Kaiparowits/Escalante
Nava jo/Farming ton
Rifle
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulah
Health Effectsb
Aggravation of Asthma
Increased chronic
bronchitis
Increased acute
respiratory disease
Sulfate Concentration
yg/m3
Conversion Rate
1%
2.2
0.8
1.5
.5
.9
1.1
10%
22
8
15
5
.9
11
Levels Producing Health Effects
6-10
14
10-25G
yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
Conversion rates vary for different technologies and
are dependent on particle size and other factors. Rates
for coal-fired power plants have been reported at 1-3 per-
cent per hour, and rates for oil-fired power plants are
as much as 20 percent per hour.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Position Paper
on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-007.
Research Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental
Research Center, 1975.
CU.S., Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental
Quality, Sixth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1975.
900
-------
PNA's, typified by benzopyrene, will also constitute part of
the fugitive or stack emissions from the pyrolysis of carbon-
aceous fuels, including oil shale. These emissions will also
pose a hazard for the occupational labor force (see Section 12.6.5) .
B. Oxidants
Oxidants in the atmosphere are a product of the photochem-
ical reactions of HC and nitrogen dioxide (N02)(among other
materials) activated by solar energy. The process is augmented
in situations where pollutants accumulate by virtue of topo-
graphic and/or meteorological factors. Although oxidants could
become a problem in the oil shale region due to HC emissions,
the photochemical process is so complex that predictions of
levels or locations where smog may be a health problem are not
possible.
C. Nitrogen Dioxide and Other Oxides of Nitrogen
Two important forms of NOX are nitric oxide and N02. N©2 is
more stable and is a lung irritant in acute exposures (4-6 hours)
at levels as low as 0.5 parts per million (ppm)(1,000 yg/m3).1
Some studies have indicated diminished lung function and pos-
sible cancer-producing effects from NOX. Studies in Chattanooga,
Tennessee form an important basis for current EPA standards and
are compared with scenario results in Table 12-63.2 There appar-
ently will not be a health problem from NOX alone. Although
short duration exposures (3-24 hours) were not computed, on the
basis of other pollutant modeling, concentrations would probably
not approach 1,000 yg/m3.
Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys-
tems Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Envi-
ronmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Midwest, Vol. 1:
Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water
Resources Impacts, and Health Effects, Draft. Argonne, 111.:
Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.
2
Chapman, R.S., et al. "Chronic Respiratory Disease."
Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 27 (September 1973),
pp. 138-42; U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Public Health Service, National Air Pollution Control Administra-
tion . Chattanooga, Tennessee-Rossville, Georgia Interstate Air
Quality Study, 1967-68, Publication No. APTD-0583. Durham, N.C.:
National Air Pollution Control Administration, n.d.; and Shy,
C.M., et al. "The Chattanooga School Children Study: Effects of
Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide; Incidence of Acute Res-
piratory Illness." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Asso-
ciation, Vol. 20 (September 1970), pp. 582-88.
901
-------
TABLE 12-63:
PEAK NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION
FOR SCENARIO LOCATIONS, 1990
(24 hour average measured in micro-
grams per cubic meter)
Location
Kaipar'owits
Farmington
Rifle
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulah
Federal Standard
Source
Urban
26
48
NC
41
16
24
100
Facility
11
6.5
4.4
4.6
3.6
5.7
Acute Biological
effects 1,000 (4-6 hours)
NC = not calculated
D. Particulates
There is a significant natural background level of airborne
particulates in all areas, especially arid environments (see
Section 12.2). Very wide variations occur; the range is 1-600
yg/m3 or more and is a function of the arid conditions and occa-
sional dust storms. Thus, the 24-hour federal primary standard
of 260 yg/m3 is probably exceeded on such occasions. Addi-
tionally, when particulates are present with gaseous air pollu-
tants, such as sulfur dioxide, particulates may worsen the toxic
effects.1
Over the six scenarios, energy facilities will contribute
18-152 yg/m to ambient air particulate loading, and urban expan-
sion will contribute about 30-100 yg/m3. Fugitive dirt from
mines was not modeled. Because ambient concentrations periodically
Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys-
tems Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Envi-
ronmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Midwest, Vol. 1:
Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water
Resources Impacts, and Health Effects, Draft^ Argonne, 111. :
Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.
902
-------
exceed standards, emissions from facilities and urban expansion
may create a potential health problem. The particles emitted
from energy facilities will be small (below 1-3 microns in
average particle diameter by weight) and will remain in the
atmosphere over long distances (hundreds of miles). Because of
their size, these particles will be capable of deep penetration
of the respiratory tract, when inhaled, and will thus offer
the maximum potential for harm to animals, including
humans. The particles will also be capable of aggravating the
effects of gaseous pollutants, such as S02, which will become
even more significant if the particles contain the types of
toxic components described in the following section.
12.6.3 Toxic Trace Element Emissions
Conversion of fossil fuels to electricity and synthetic
fuels can result in the discharge of "toxic substances". By
definition, these substances are much more toxic per unit weight
than are the criteria pollutants. The toxic substances dis-
cussed below are lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and vanadium.
Lead is present as a natural background substance in air-
borne particulates, coal, and oil shale, but it is essentially
absent from petroleum. The average adult has a daily intake of
300 yg of lead, with about 90 percent via ingestion and 10 per-
cent via respiration. However, gastrointestinal absorption is
only about 10 percent, whereas the pulmonary route permits an
absorption of 30-50 percent.1 Thus, airborne lead could account
for up to half the total lead absorbed.2 In view of the steadily
increasing annual pollution of air and soils with lead from
motor vehicles exhaust, accumulation and toxicity in exposed
human beings may occur.^ Adult or chronic lead poisoning requires
months or years to occur and depends on increased exposure to
lead. At present, there is concern that exposure to even very
low levels of lead will produce subtle central nervous system
pathologies, especially in children.
Increased emissions of lead from energy facilities and an
expanded population can be significant both in terms of direct
exposure to humans and because airborne lead will settle to the
ground and enter the food web. However, the lead emitted from
Schroeder, H.A., and I.H. Tipton. "The Human Body Burden
of Lead." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 17 (December
1968), pp. 965-78.
Goldsmith, J.R., and A.C. Hexter. "Respiratory Exposure to
Lead: Epddemiological and Experimental Dose-Response Relation-
ships." Science, Vol. 158 (October 6, 1967), pp. 132-34.
3Ibid.
903
-------
energy facilities will probably be minute as compared to that
resulting from the expanded population's use of motor vehicles
burning leaded gasolines. If lead anti-knock compounds are
removed from gasoline, the power plant emissions could become
more significant, although overall risk is reduced.
Mercury occurs in coal, petroleum, and probably in oil shale.
Depending on the combustion system and ancillary air pollution
control devices, 10-90 percent of the contained mercury can be
emitted to the atmosphere. This mercury can be converted to
the more toxic organic form by microorganisms. These compounds
can then be concentrated in food webs. Exposure to elevated
mercury levels in foods produces nervous system disorders and
death. *• The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has established
a 100 parts per billion standard for mercury levels in food.
The level of mercury emitted to the atmosphere by energy
facilities is unlikely to constitute a hazard from direct expo-
sure or ingestion. However, intrusion of mercury into the
aquatic food web raises possibilities of contamination of fish
used as human food. For example, in the Kaiparowits scenario
(Chapter 6), mercury can reach Lake Powell from the facilities
by direct fallout from emissions and by runoff. Mercury deposi-
tion from the hypothetical Kaiparowits power plant alone ranges
from 16 to 480 pounds of mercury entering the lake each year, or
1-27 percent of the present estimated rate of addition from
natural sources.2 Current levels in some predatory fish in Lake
Powell exceed the standard of 500 ppm, and the energy facility
emissions have been estimated to cause increases of 10-50 percent
above this value, depending on number of plants, locations, and
coal characteristics.3
Cadmium is found in coal and oil shale but is absent from
petroleum. Cadmium is known to be highly toxic as particulates
or fumes; it accumulates in the human kidney and liver, acts on
Pettyjohn, Wayne A. "Trace Elements and Health," in Petty-
john, Wayne A., ed. Water Quality in a Stressed Environment;
Readings in Environmental Hydrology. Minneapolis, Minn.:
Burgess, 1972, pp. 245-46.
2
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976.
Standiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E. Kidd. Mercury in
the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin
No. 1. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Insti-
tute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1973, p. 16.
904
-------
the circulation system,! irritates the lung (producing emphysema), 2
and at higher exposures causes damage to the excretory system.3
Some of these effects occur at concentrations of 500-2,500 yg/m3
(0.5-2.5 milligrams per cubic meter [mg/m3] ) over as little as
3 days.4 Lower levels may be associated with high blood pres-
sure or stomach and intestinal disorders. It is unlikely that
any chronic poisoning would result from combustion or pyrol-
ysis of coal containing low levels of cadmium because most of
the metal should be captured in the ash. However, because of
the possible role of cadmium in producing hypertension and
because it accumulates in humans, a possible health hazard
exists.
The toxicity of arsenic depends on its chemical form. Metal-
lic arsenic is thought to be non-toxic, while arsine (AsH3, a
colorless gas) is extremely toxic.5
Arsenic is suspected of being a carcinogen. Arsenic expo-
sure from coal combustion or pyrolysis emissions should not
result in poisoning, but the possibility of increased risk of
cancer exists. Arsenic deposited in the aquatic environment may
undergo microbiological transformation similar to what has been
observed with mercury.
Vanadium is present in coal, petroleum, and oil shale. The
production of residual petroleum fuels results in a concentra-
tion of the vanadium compounds which then are released during
combustion. Vanadium has low toxicity in most forms, although
there are some associations between airborne vanadium and respi-
ratory disease. Vanadium dioxide acts as an acid in aqueous
Schroeder, H.A. "Cadmium, Chromium, and Cardiovascular
Disease." Circulation, Vol. 35 (March 1967), pp. 570-82.
2
Bouhoys, A., and J.M. Peters. "Control of Environmental
Lung Disease." New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 283 (Sep-
tember 10, 1970), pp. 573-82.
Piscator, M., K.L. BeCkmans, and A.B. Tryckerier, eds.
Proteinuria in Chronic Cadmium Poisoning. Stockholm: 1966.
4
Schroeder, H.A. Cadmium, Zinc, and Mercury, Air Quality
Monograph No. 70-16. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum
Institute, n.d.
U.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public
Health Service. Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Arsenic and
Its Compounds. Raleigh, N.C.: Public Health Service, 1969.
905
-------
solution and when inhaled contributes to respiratory irritation. 1
Most cases of respiratory effects have resulted from exposures
of 1-50 yg/m3 in dusty air.2 In 1967, the annual average of
airborne vanadium in non-urban western locations was approxi-
mately 0.003 yg/rn3,3 making the dose of 1-50 yg/m3 many thousand
times greater than ambient concentrations. Data correlating
exposures to these ambient concentrations to document toxicity
are not available. This element is potentially toxic because of
its involvement in respiratory disease and because it is a "new"
or introduced element in the local environment.
12.6.4 Radioactive Materials
A. Radioactivity in Coal Ash
Exposure to radiation from energy facilities considered in
this study may take several forms, including exposure to disposal
piles, mine environments, and particulate emissions. A brief
identification of some factors affecting radiation exposure in
these selected categories is provided below.
Radioactivity in coal is highly variable, as shown in Table
12-64. Reported values for Radium-226, a major source of this
radioactivity, generally.range from 0.001 to 1.3 picocuries per
gram (pci/g) in the U.S. When coal is burned, most of the
radium remains with the ash and is therefore concentrated.
Radium-226 concentrations have been reported in various coal
Stokinger, H.E. "Vanadium," in Patty, F.A., ed. Industrial
Hygiene and Toxicology, Vol. 2. New York, N.Y.: Wiley-Inter-
science, 1963, pp. 1171-82.
2
Lewis, C.E. "The Biological Actions of Vanadium, II."
Archives of Industrial Health, Vol. 19 (1959) , p. 497.
Athanassiadis, Y.C. Air Pollution Aspects of Vanadium and
Its Compounds, National Air Pollution Control Administration.
Bethesda, Md.: Litton Systems, Inc., 1969.
4
Jaworowski, A.^ et al. "Artificial Sources of Natural Radio-
nuclides in the Environment," in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and
T.F. Gesell, eds. Natural Radiation Environment, CONF-720805-P2.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Energy Research and Development Admin-
istration, 1972, pp. 809-18.
906
-------
TABLE 12-64:
RADIOACTIVITY IN COAL
(picocuries per gram)
Coal Sample
Location
Appalachian
Utah
Wyoming
Japan
Alabama
Tennessee Valley
Authority
Australia
Bartsville
Colbert
Poland
Widow's Creek
Montana
Ra-226
3.8
1.3
0
0
2.3
4.25
7.98
2.3
3.1
2 a
1.6
2.9a
Ra-228
2.4
0.8
1.3
1.5
2.2
2.85
0
3.1
6.9
0
2.7
0.8
Th-220
2.6
1
1.6
1.6
2.3
2.85
0
0
1.6
0
2.8
0.8
Th-232
0
0
0
0
0
2.85
0
3.1
6.9
0
2.7
0.8
Sa = Radium
Th = Thorium
Sources; Eisenbud, M., and H.G. Petrow. "Radioactivity
in the Atmospheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use
Fossil Fuels." Science, Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964),
pp. 288-89; Martin, J .E. , E.D. Harward, and D.T. Oakley.
"Radiation Doses from Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Power
Plants," International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium,
New York, 1970, Report SM-146/19. Vienna: Interna-
tional Atomic Energy Agency, 1971, pp. 107-25; Jaworowski,
A., et al. "Artificial Sources of Natural Radionuclides
in the Environment," in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and T.F.
Gesell, eds. Natural Radiation Environment, CONF-720805-
P2. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Energy Research and Devel-
opment Administration, 1972, pp. 809-18; Bedrosian, P.H.,
D.G. Easterly, and S.L. Cummings. Radiological Survey
Around Power Plants Using Fossil Fuel, Report #EERL 71-3.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1971.
aAssuming 15 percent ash content.
907
-------
ashes, ranging from 2.1 to 5.0 pci/g with a mean of 3.8 pci/g;1
other investigators have reported up to 8.0 pci/g.2
Depending on the disposition of the ash retained by the
collectors, opportunities may exist for radioactivity to enter
the environment. If the ash is simply accumulated in piles,
opportunities exist for re-suspension of dust, emanation of
Radon-222,3 and leaching of radioactivity from the piles to local
surface waters. No data are available on these potential
releases.
B. Radioactive Materials from Uranium Mining and Milling
A more serious environmental problem than coal refuse piles
are tailing piles from uranium milling operations which may con-
tain several thousand times as much radium as ordinary soils.
Exposures from uranium tailings piles pose a significant health
risk to distances of 1 kilometer.4 In addition, underground
mining for uranium has resulted in occupational exposures
resulting in six- to nine-fold increases in lung cancer.5 During
the past 15 years, controls have reduced exposure to radon gases
in uranium mines 10- to 100-fold.6
Eisenbud, M., and H.G. Petrow. "Radioactivity in the
Atmospheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use Fossil Fuels."
Science, Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964), pp. 288-89.
This may be compared with a typical value of 1.0 picocuries
per gram for ordinary soils.
Martin, J.E. "Comparative Population Radiation Dose Com-
mitments of Nuclear and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Cycles," in
Proceedings of the Eighth Midyear Topical Symposium of the Health
Physics Society; Population Exposure, CONF-741018. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, 1974, pp. 317-326.
4
Swift, Jerry J., and James M. Hardin, and Harry W. Galley.
Potential Radiological Impact of Airborne Releases and Direct
Gamma Radiation to Individuals Living Near Inactive Uranium Mill
Tailings Piles. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, 1976.
Schurgin, Arell S., and Thomas C. Hollocher. "Radiation-
Induced Lung Cancers Among Uranium Miners," in Union of Con-
cerned Scientists, ed. The Nuclear Fuel Cycle: A Survey of the
Public Health, Environmental, and National Security Effects of
Nuclear Power, rev. ed. Cambridge, Mass..: MIT Press, 1975 , pp.9-40.
6Ibid.
908
-------
TABLE 12-65: ESTIMATED ANNUAL AVERAGE AIRBORNE
PARTICULATE MATTER
(micrograms per cubic meter)
Year
1980
1990
2000
Page
Navajo
0.1
0.1
0.1
Al/A2a
0
0.1
0.1
Escalante
Navajo
0.05
0.05
0.05
Al/A2a
0
0.15
0.15
Glen Canyon
Navajo
0.1
0.1
0.1
Al/A2a
0
0.1
0.1
Contribution due to hypothesized plants at Kaiparowits and
Escalante,
C. Radiation Exposure from Coal Combustion
Airborne radioactivity due to coal combustion may be esti-
mated by multiplying radioactivity in the fly as.h times the air-
borne concentration of the fly ash. As an example, Table 12-65
gives the estimated particulate concentrations for the Kaiparowits/
Escalante scenario due to existing and new power plants for each town.
Table 12-66 gives the estimated airborne radioactivity concentra-
tions in the three towns for the years 1990 and 2000. Lung doses
TABLE 12-66: ESTIMATED ANNUAL AVERAGE AIRBORNE RADIOACTIVITY
DUE TO COAL COMBUSTION IN 1990 AND 2000
Town
Page
Escalante
Glen Canyon
Radioactivity Concentration
(picomicrocuries per cubic meter) a
u238
0.6
0.6
0.6
u234
0.6
0.6
0.6
Th23°
0.6
0.6
0.6
„ 226
Ra
0.6
0.5
0.6
232
Tti
0.7
0.7
0.7
„ 228
Ra
0.5
0.5
0.5
Th228
0.4
0.4
0.4
Ra = radium
a!0 curie per cubic meter.
Th = thorium
U = uranium
909
-------
TABLE 12-67:
ESTIMATED INDIVIDUAL LUNG DOSES DUE TO
ATMOSPHERIC RADIOACTIVITY PRODUCED BY
COAL COMBUSTION IN PAGE, ESCALANTE,
AND GLEN CANYON
Isotope
u238
u234
Th230
Ra226
Th232
Ra228
Th228
Sstimated Dose
(urem per year)
0.2
0.2
3
0.5
2.6
0.8
3
Ra = radium
Th = thorium
U = uranium
calculated for the seven most important radioisotopes found in
coal as well as the total estimated dose, are shown in Table 12-67.
The health effect usually associated with inhalation of insoluble
radioactive particulates is cancer of the lung. A risk rate of
1.2 cases per year per million persons per rem has evolved based
on several studies at higher doses and dose rates.2 Assuming an
average exposure period of 30 years,, a risk of 36 lung cancer
cases per million is reached at one rem exposures. For calculated
doses in Table 12-67, an individual has a risk of 1 in 3
of contracting cancer in any year.
x
10-10
Recom-
International Commission on Radiological Protection.
mendation of the International Commission on Radiological
tection on Permissable Dose for Internal Radiation, Report No. 2.
New York, N.Y.: Pergamon, 1959.
2
National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council,
Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radia-
tion. The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Levels of
Ionizing Radiation. Washington, D.C.: National Academy of
Sciences, 1972.
910
-------
12.6.5 Hazard from Chemicals in Synthetic Fuels Facilities
A. Introduction
Oil shale retorting and upgrading, coal gasification, and
coal liquefaction processes all involve compounds which can be
identified as known or probable cancer-causing agents (carcino-
gens and co-carcinogens).1 English workers regularly exposed to
raw shale oil and to lubricating oil made from shale have showed
a high incidence of scrotal and skin cancer.2 Skin cancers have
also been found in workers exposed to shale-derived tars, light
oil, waxes, and cutting oils.-3 However, in contrast with the
British experience, oil shale industries in Estonia, Brazil, and
Sweden have not reported increased incidences of cancer among
workers. No "skin cancers were detected in the small-scale Bureau
of Mines shale oil demonstration plant near Rifle, Colorado
although there was a high incidence of benign skin lesions. Can-
cer death rates more than 300 times those of the general popula-
tion have been recently reported for workers on the tops of coke
ovens. Experience in the 1950 ls with a coal liquefaction plant
operated by Union Carbide in Institute, West Virginia showed that,
despite efforts to educate workers to the hazards of unnecessary
contact with oils and instruction in decontamination practices,
skin cancer during 7 years of operation occurred at 16-37 times
the rate previously reported in the literature.^ Air samples
showed as much as 18.70 micrograms per 100 cubic meters of the
known cancer producing PNA HC benzopyrene on plant premises,
Freudenthal, R.I., G.A. Lutz, and R.I. Mitchell. Carcino-
genic Potential of Coal and Coal Conversion Products, Battelle
Energy Program Report. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Memorial Insti-
tute, Columbus Laboratories, 1975.
2
Commoner, B. "From Percival Pott to Henry Kissinger."
Hospital Practice, Vol. 10 (1975), pp. 138-41.
Auld, S.J.M. "Environmental Cancer and Petroleum." Jour-
nal of the Institute of Petroleum, Vol. 36 (April 1950), pp. 235-
53.
4
Lloyd, J.W. "Long-Term Mortality Study of Steelworkers:
V. Respiratory Cancer in Coke Plant Workers." Journal of Occu-
pational Medicine, Vol. 13 (February 1971), pp. 53-68.
Sexton, R.J. "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation
of Coal: I. An Introductory Statement on General Information
Procec^ Description, and a Definition of the Problem," pp. 181-86,
ans "IV. The Control Program and the Clinical.Effects," pp. 208-
31. Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960).
911
-------
three orders of magnitude higher than that in a typical urban
environment with heavy automobile traffic.-'- In Japan, Britain,
and Sweden, excess cancers of various organs have been noted in
workers producing gas from coal in various processes.2
These observations establish increased cancer risks asso-
ciated with both shale oil and coal-conversion processes, but it
is not possible to generalize immediately from these cases to
the installations planned for the western U.S. Both the specific
processes and their scale of operation differ. Recent federal
requirements for maintaining worker safety have changed condi-
tions „
There is a relative lack of data on the large number of
potential cancer-causing chemicals present in waste and process
streams. This section will summarize selected organic substances
which are known or suspected to cause cancer and which may be
found in the process streams and wastes of shale and coal-conver-
sion processes. Then, the avenues of contact of workers or nearby
humans are outlined.
B. Cancer-Causing Agents in Oil-Shale Processing
Oil shale itself is not generally thought to be cancer pro-
ducing; the organic portion of the shale rock is mainly low-
molecular-weight organic material with little aromatic hydro-
carbon content. However, retorting produces a variety of mole-
cules including PNA HC's suspected of producing cancer. Tests
on Colorado oil shale gave a distillate containing 2 percent
PNA's.3 Upgrading shale oil reduces its carcinogenicity by
breaking down these components. However, the residues may con-
tain relatively high concentrations of PNA's.^
Ketcham, N.H. , andB.S. Norton. "The Hazards to Health in the
Hydrogenation of Coal: III. The Industrial Hygiene Studies. "
Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960) , pp 194-207.
2
Kauai, M., et al. "Epidemiologic Study of Occupational
Lung Cancer." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 14 (1967),
pp. 859-64; and Doll, R., et al. "Mortality of Gasworkers with
Special Reference to Cancers of the Lung and Bladder, Chronic
Bronchitis, and Pneumoconiosis." British Journal of Industrial
Medicine, Vol. 22 (January 1965), pp. 1-12.
Not all polynuclear aromatics are carcinogens, but most
organic carcinogens found in shale oil are polynuclear aromatics.
Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J. Disposal and Environmental
Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research
Institute, 1974.
912
-------
Workers on oil shale plants will be exposed on a regular
basis to shale oil in amounts depending largely on the attention
paid to housekeeping within the plant. Leaking pump seals will
be a major source of fugitive produce losses; especially near
groups of pumps, surfaces will tend to become contaminated with
a thin film of oil originating from these leaks. Thus, it is
possible that a majority of plant workers may come into regular
contact with raw and upgraded shale oil. An effort to establish
a maximum safe exposure rate will be necessary to specify appro-
priate housekeeping measures to prevent increased cancer risk.
Individuals involved in plant cleaning and maintenance would be
in regular contact with the oil. Accidental spills requiring
special cleanup efforts could expose some individuals to large
quantities of oil, but these events would be infrequent. Because
most of these cancer-producing chemicals do not evaporate easily,
the health risk from inhalation may be less that that of
repeated skin contact with oil films.
Some carcinogens will be emitted in the stack gas from the
boilers and retort;1 these will be dispersed into the atmosphere
around the plant. While exposure would be regular in areas
affected by poor plume dispersion, there is no evidence to sug-
gest that the very low concentrations resulting would constitute
a significant health hazard.
Spent shale disposal could also expose populations to cancer-
causing chemicals. In Estonian spent shale dumps, small unsat-
urated EC's with less than 25 carbon atoms (some of which could
be carcinogenic) may be evolved.2 Carbonaceous spent shale
produced by retorting Colorado oil shale has been shown to con-
tain carcinogens.3 Workers compacting the spent shale, or
maintaining the containment dikes, could be exposed to these
substances regularly by inhalation.
These include the polynuclear aromatic carcinogens 7.12
domethylbenz(a)anthracene. Dibonz(a,j)anthracene, 3 methylchol-
anthrene, benz(c)phenathrene, Benzpyrenes, benzanthracenes,
chrysene, and carbazoles, among others (Barrett, R.E. , et al. Assess-
ment of ^Industrial Boiler Toxic and Hazardous Emissions Control Needs,
Final Report, Contract no. 68-02-1232, Task 8. Columbus, Ohio:
Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories, 1974.)
2
Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J. Disposal and Environmental
Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research
Institute, 1974.
3Ibid.
913
-------
Finally, process waters and various aqueous plant wastes
will be contaminated with PNA's and other hydrocarbons. These
wastes may be used to slurry or wet the spent shale, and workers
involved may be exposed to the carcinogens through contact or
inhalation.
C. Cancer-Causing Agents in Coal Conversion
As is the case with oil shale processing, the raw materials
for coal conversion generally have low quantities of cancer-
causing substances. However, the processes of gasification and
liquefaction result in the formation of complex organic molecules,
some of which may cause cancer. Synthesis gas prior to upgrading
to pipeline quality contains more hazardous substances than the
final product.^ Therefore, the greatest plant hazards will be
from fugitive losses of raw synthesis gas and from the cleanup
procedures (sulfur recovery, tar separation) designed to remove
harmful substances. To a lesser extent, fugitive emissions from
storage and blending of the final product may constitute a
hazard.2 Workers stationed in these areas would receive regular
exposure to fugitive emissions in amounts largely determined by
housekeeping standards. Emissions from the plant stacks would,
like those of shale processing, emit some'organic" carcinogens as
vapors or entrained on particulate matter. Fugitive emissions
of liquefied coal could occur in the same manner as shale-oil
losses, and the same considerations with respect to exposure
apply. In addition to the liquid product itself, recycled sol-
vent oils used in the process could escape into the working envi-
ronment .
Solid wastes from coal conversion include an ash discharged
into a settling pond as a wet-solid. If process wastewaters
(such as quench water) are used to slurry the ash, workers might
contact a number of toxic compounds. Potentially more hazardous
solid wastes are the chars and tars produced as process residues.
In many instances, these could be burned in utility boilers. How-
ever, care would be needed in preventing contact with these
materials in transfer from reactor to boiler.
Of the major gasification processes, the highest risk of
occupationally related cancer is thought to be associated with
high-pressure, fixed-bed processes. (Freudenthal, R.I., G.A.Lutz,
and R.I. Mitchell. Carcinogenic Potential of Coal and Coal Con-
version Products, Battelle Energy Program Report. Columbus,
Ohio: Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories, 1975.)
2
Cavanaugh, E.G., et al. Potentially Hazardous Emissions
from the Extraction and Processing of Coal and Oil, EPA-650/
2-76-038. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975.
914
-------
Since large quantities of carbonaceous solid wastes are not
produced by coal conversion, there will be less chance for envi-
ronmental health hazards arising from fugitive dusts and contam-
ination of ground or surface waters than will be the case with
oil shale. Nevertheless, evaporation ponds in which quench
water, plant drain water, or other wastes contaminated with heavy
coal fractions are stored could introduce carcinogens into the
environment outside the plant through a rupture of the seal per-
mitting seepage or through windblown dust, if the ponds are not
properly covered or revegetated after abandonment.
12.6.6 Summary of Health Effects
The selected health effects summarized in this chapter are
highly dependent on both the kinds of technologies and the loca-
tions where they are deployed. For example, underground uranium
mining and milling may pose a cancer hazard to those humans
within the immediate vicinity of energy development, but these
technologies generally do not produce the significant levels of
criteria air pollutants associated with fossil fuel development.
In both cases, however, occupational and public exposure to
health hazards have changed significantly during the past decade
and are highly dependent on circumstances surrounding individual
developments.
Among criteria air pollutants, SCK, particulates, HC, and
oxidants have the potential to become health problems. The extent
of the SC>2 problem from power plants and oil shale conversion
facilities will depend largely on the rate of conversion of SC>2
to sulfates and on the emissions controls deployed. Where
terrain is rugged or poor dispersion potential exists, such as
in the Rocky Mountains, the potential health hazards will be
greatest. The federal primary air standard for HC will be vio-
lated by coal liquefaction, oil shale retorting facilities,
natural gas facilities, and urban sources. Concentrations can
be as much as 325 times the standards. This will contribute to
the formation of oxidants, which are a primary health problem.
The 24-hour federal primary ambient air standard for particulates
is already frequently violated by blowing dust; the addition of
fine particulates from surface mining, the transport of coal by
trains, and particulate emissions from conversion facilities will
exacerbate this potential health problem. There is apparently
no direct health hazard associated with NOX from the facilities
and locations considered.
Trace elements may also pose a potential health problem.
For example, mercury concentrations in some sport fish already
exceed standards established by the FDA. Additions of mercury
from power plants will aggravate this problem.
915
-------
12.7 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
12.7.1 Introduction
Development of energy resources in the eight-state study
area will produce solids, liquids, gases, and electricity as
energy forms. Since most of the ultimate consumers are located
in other areas of the country an extensive transportation net-
work will be required.
To assess the impacts of transportation of these energy
resources, the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) energy model1
was used for the Nominal Demand, Low Demand, and Low Nuclear
Availability cases described in the Introduction to Part II. The
model divides the U.S. into geographic regions; resources,
demands, and costs are specified on a regional basis. Cost of
transportation alternatives are also specified, and on the basis
of delivered costs, the model determines the quantity of energy
which will be transported by each alternative among the supply
and demand centers. The transportation links in the model extend
from the energy resource area to the centroids^ of the energy
demand regions. No attempt was made to simulate the complex
network of links between numerous cities and towns.
12.7.2 Transportation Modes3
Raw coal can be transported by rail, slurry pipeline, barge,
and truck. The only modes considered in this analysis are rail
and slurry pipeline because trucks cannot handle the quantities
to be shipped over long distances and the lack of navigable
waterways in the West precludes consideration of barges."*
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study: Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park,
Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
A centroid of a region is calculated as the point which
minimizes the average distance to all other points in the region.
Under subcontract to the University of Oklahoma, a special
transportation analysis has been undertaken and is available as
an appendix to this report. See Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee
Soo. Route Specific Cost Comparisons: Unit Trains, Coal Slurry
Pipelines and Extra High Voltage Transmission (Appendix B of this
report).
4
Much western coal may be transferred to water-borne modes
when it reaches as far east as the Mississippi. See, for example,
"Great Lakes Terminal Provides a Twelve-Month Market." Coal Age,
Vol. 18 (August 1976), p. 89.
916
-------
Liquid fossil fuels (crude oil, shale oil, and coal syncrude)
can be moved by pipelines, barges, and rail. Since most oil will
be transported over long distances by pipeline, the analysis was
limited to this mode. Natural gas and synthetic natural gas will
also be transported almost entirely by pipeline.
For the purpose of this study, electrical transmission con-
sists of electricity generated at mine-mouth plants and trans-
ported via alternating or direct current at high voltage until
interconnected with already established distribution networks.
12.7.3 Coal Unit Trains
A coal unit train is a dedicated, single-purpose train,
usually consisting of 4 or 5 locomotives pulling 100 hopper cars
of 100 tons capacity each. The coal is loaded onto the train at
a fast-loading facility located at the mine. The train travels
directly to the delivery point where fast unloading facilities
clear the cars. All cars remain coupled to the train at all
times. The train returns directly to the mine to obtain another
load. The unit train management technique allows the trains to
run continuously, and the train stops enroute only for refueling
and inspections.
The number of unit trains that will be traveling from
western resource basins to various demand centers for the Nominal
Demand case for the 'year 2000 are shown in Figure 12-8. For the
Low Demand case, the number of required trips will be less; for
the Low Nuclear Availability case, the number of trips will
increase substantially; and for the Powder River-Chicago run,
the number of trips will reach 80 trains per day.
Several direct effects on people located along the route
can be identified. At grade crossings along the route, automo-
biles and other street traffic will be halted during train
passages. Passage time will be 3 minutes for a 100-car train
approximately 1 mile in length traveling at 20 miles per hour.
For the Powder River-Chicago route, 43 trips per day will be
required in the year 2000 for the Nominal case.l If a double-
track line and equal spacing of train movements are assumed, a
loaded train will pass any given crossing approximately every 34
minutes. During this time interval, an empty train will return
from the opposite direction. Given these frequencies, a crossing
would be blocked 18 percent of the time.
In the interest of internal consistencies, this estimate is
based on Stanford Research Institute's assumed average of 17 mil-
lion British thermal units per ton for all western coal. In
other words, 1 Q of energy is embodied in each 59 million tons.
917
-------
00
Resource Basin
FIGURE 12-8:
UNIT TRAIN COAL ENERGY TRANSPORTED FROM WESTERN REGION IN THE
YEAR 2000, NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
-------
However, it is unlikely that a single existing rail line
would accommodate the total traffic. Spreading the traffic over
several roughly parallel rail lines (at least in the more
densely populated areas) would mitigate the impact to a certain
extent. It is more likely that a new, double-tracked line would
be constructed which could minimize grade crossings by building
overpasses or avoiding most towns. Assuming a 100-foot right-
of-way is required to construct new double tracking to each of
the demand centers indicated in Figure 12-8 (a total of 7,365
rail miles), nearly 90,000 acres of land would be required* This
land requirement does not include feeder or distribution lines,
nor does it include space for coal handling equipment.
Another example demonstrates the effect of heavy train
traffic. Assuming that the 37,800 loaded unit trains projected
to transport coal from the Powder River region in the year 2000
pass in the proximity of a single city (e.g., Gillette, Wyoming),
then one loaded unit train would pass, on the average, every 14
minutes. An unloaded train would also return, on the average,
during this interval. The probability of this occurrence is
admittedly low but serves to illustrate the resultant intra-city
congestion. In the Low Nuclear Availability case, the impact
will be exacerbated because some 60,800 loaded unit trains (per
year) are projected to originate in the region. Impacts would
be mitigated to the extent that the train routes go in three
different directions and that an array of tracks would probably
be constructed to serve the coal mines scattered throughout the
region.
Another direct population impact would be noise. Our
analysis indicates that 1,134,000 people reside within 1 mile on
either side of a railroad from Colstrip, Montana to Chicago,
Illinois. As shown in Section 12.9, noise levels from a single
unit train will be annoying up to approximately 1 mile from the
track. Projected loaded unit train movements over this route
vary from 33 to 80 unit trains per day for the Low Demand and
Low Nuclear Availability cases, respectively. This means that
more than one million people would be disturbed between 10 and 22
percent of every day by train noise.
Animal populations will also have problems with railroad
crossings. Heavy unit train traffic posses a hazard to large
animals (e.g,, antelope) moving in herds over large areas during
the year. They cannot be expected to pass rail lines quickly,
and numbers of them could be killed in collisions with trains.
Most domesticated livestock will be protected from the train
hazard by fencing, but this will restrict the migration of wild
animals.
Railroads have been spending less and less on track main-
tenance over the last two decades. Results of a recent study
for the Federal Energy Administration indicated that to restore
919
-------
71 percent of the national rail lines (rails and ties) to normal
condition will require $4.1 billion. A total expenditure of $12
billion has been estimated for complete restoration. It was not
determined whether this restoration process would enable existing
lines to carry the increased tonnage required for coal unit
trains. However, the track maintenance problem under heavy coal
loading has been cited as a major consideration in determining
practical track capacity.1 Therefore, existing rail lines may
not be able to accommodate the frequency and tonnage of projected
coal unit rail traffic. Some lines have been constructed speci-
fically for unit train traffic,2 but for many lines, new ballast,
ties, and heavier rails will probably be required.
Assuming that 33,000 miles of track would be required for
coal movement, this upgrading would require 5 million tons of
steel and, with a reconstruction cost of $100,000 per mile, would
require $3.3 billion.3 Assuming that 18,400 miles of new double
track would be required by 2000 and that new construction would
be $300,OOO4 per mile and require 372 tons of steel, $5.5 billion
and 6.8 million tons of steel would be required. (These esti-
mates are in addition to the requirements for slurry pipelines,
which are detailed in the next sub-section.)
One advantage frequently identified with trains is that the
railroads would be available for moving other freight. This
would be true for most rail lines until about 1990 (and probably
for a few rail lines after 1990). However, some lines would be
saturated almost from the beginning, especially if they have been
poorly maintained. Also, the unit train concept is predicated
on fast, scheduled movements. Any additional trains using the
lines will have to schedule around unit train traffic. There is
a disagreement as to when rail line saturation would occur, and
some analysts argue that it will not be until 70 million tons per
U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence
Blueprint, Final Task Force Report; Analysis of Requirements and
Constraints on the Transport of Energy Materials, Vol. 1. Wash-
ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974.
2
Doran, Richard K., Mary K. Duff, and John S. Gilmore.
Socio-Economic Impacts of Proposed Burlington Northern and Chicago
North Western Rail Line in Campbell-Converse Counties, Wyoming.
Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research Institute, 1974.
FEA. PIB Report; Transport of Energy Materials.
4
Blair, A. Ross, and Paul D. Martinka. "Western Coal Trans-
portation, A Challenge." Mining Congress Journal, Vol. 61 (April
1975) , pp. 40-45.
920
-------
year (tpy) are moved on one double-track line.l The new track
estimates given above were predicted on a saturation point of 25
million tpy. The larger capacity assumption would mean only
6,600 miles of new track instead of 18,400, with corresponding
reductions in cost and materials.
Current locomotives and freight car fleets may be inade-
quate.2 This would affect not only coal transportation but the
transport of other commodities as well. An examination of hopper
car availability nationally during the past decade suggests that
limitations imposed by steel, equipment manufacturing capacity,
and available capital will significantly affect the shipping
industries and the capacity of railroads to provide the equipment
that would be required. The total U.S. capacity of hopper cars
declined by over 1 million tons in the 1969-1974 period.3 The
Department of Transportation announced in mid-1972 that an addi-
tional 130,000 cars were needed to meet the 1972 car shortage.
The estimate of required investment was $2.3 billion.4 Forecasts
show that a 33-percent growth in rail-freight transportation
between 1971 and 1980 will require about 617,000 cars of 80-ton
capacity each. The Department of Transportation also estimated
that an $8.8 billion fund will be required to keep abreast of
future demands. Even if funds are available, at least 2 years
lead time would be required to build these cars.^ The economic
impacts of this construction are considered in Section 12.4.8.
Although there is no reported locomotive shortage, the devel-
opment of western energy resources might create one. Lead time
U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence
Blueprint, Final Task Force Report: Analysis of Requirements and
Constraints on the Transport of Energy Materials, Vol. 1. Wash-
ington, D.C.:Government Printing Office,1974.
2
U.S., Congress, Senate, Committee on Commerce. To Alle-
viate Freight Car Shortage, Senate Report 92-982 on S. 1729.
92d Cong., 2d sess., 1972.
3
Blair, A. Ross, and Paul D. Martinka. "Western Coal Trans-
portation, A Challenge." Mining Congress Journal, Vol. 61 (April
1975), pp. 40-45.
U.S., Congress, Senate, Committee on Commerce. To Alle-
viate Freight Car Shortage, Senate Report 92-982 on S. 1729.
92d Cong., 2d sess., 1972.
5Boyce, Allan R. Private Communication. Burlington Northern.
Energy, Metallics, and Chemicals Section, August 28, 1974.
921
-------
TABLE 12-68:
UNIT TRAINS REQUIRED FOR THREE LEVELS
OF DEVELOPMENT3
Year
1980
1985
1990
2000
Level of
Development
Low
Nominal
Low Nuclear
Low
Nominal
Low Nuclear
Low
Nominal
Low Nuclear
Low
Nominal
Low Nuclear
Unit
Trains*3
156
189
256
241
313
474
276
358
565
380
512
850
Steelc
(1,000 tons)
624
756
1,024
964
1,252
1,896
1,104
1,432
2,260
1,520
2,048
3,400
Capitald
(Millions
of Dollars)
846
1,024
1,388
1,306
1,696
2,569
1,496
1,940
3,062
2,060
2,775
4,607
Assumes an average train speed of 30 miles per hour and
an average loading and unloading time of five hours.
Each consisting of 4 locomotives and 100 hopper cars. ,
°Assumes 4,000 tons of steel per unit train. Track steel
excluded.
Assumes $530,000 per locomotive and $33,000 per hopper
car (constant 1975 dollars) .
for locomotive construction is about 1 year.1 Calculations have
been made to determine the number of locomotives and hopper cars
required to satisfy transportation requirements for expected
western energy development based on various train speeds and
loading/unloading times.2 Results for each of the three levels
of developments are shown in Table 12-68. Table 12-69 shows the
Engel, A.P. Private Communication. General Electric Co.,
locomotive Products Department, Domestic Electrification Projects,
August 15, 1974; Whittle, T.C. Private Communication. General
Electric Co. Transportation Systems Division, September 11, 1974.
2
Buck, P., and N. Savage. "Determine Unit-Train Require-
ments." Power, Vol. 118 (January 1974), pp. 90-91.
922
-------
TABLE 12-69: UNIT TRAIN REQUIREMENTS FOR EXTREME CASESa
Year
1980
1985
1990
2000
Case
Low**
High6
Low
High
. Low
High
Low
High
Unit
Trains
129
341
201
627
228
752
314
1,123
Steel
(thousands
of tons)b
516
1,364
804
2,508
912
3,008
1,256
4,492
Capital0
(millions
of dollars)
702
1,856
1,094
3,414
1,242
2,766
1,709
6,114
In-service requirements--no reserves included.
v^
Based on 4,000 tons of steel/train (4 locomotives
and 100 hopper cars). No track steel requirements
are included.
V- *
CThe capital requirement is based on 4 locomotives
per 100-car train, $33,000 per hopper car, and
$530,000 per locomotive (constant 1975 dollars).
Based on the Low Demand case, an average of 2
hours for loading and unloading, and an average
train speed of 35 miles per hour.
eBased on the Low Nuclear Availability case, an
average of 5 hours for loading and unloading, and
an average train speed of 20 miles per hour.
extremes which could occur under various assumptions as to train
speeds and loading times.
12.7.4 Coal Slurry Pipelines
Slurry pipelines are a fairly new mode of coal transporta-
tion which can provide cost advantages over coal unit train
transport for large volumes and high utilization rates (above
85 percent). The largest slurry pipeline in operation in the
U.S. is also the largest in the world: the 273-mile, 18-inch
line used to transport some 4.8 million tons of coal per year
from the Black Mesa mine in Arizona to a power plant in southern
Nevada. Four proposed lines have been announced, one from
923
-------
Wyoming to Arkansas, one from Colorado to Texas, one 'from Utah to
Nevada, and one from New Mexico to Arizona.1
The technology of coal slurry transportation involves
grinding the coal to a powder, mixing it with water on a 50-50
weight basis, pumping this mixture through the pipeline, and
dewatering the coal at the receiving end. Water scarcity is one
of the potentially major obstacles to the development of coal
slurry lines from the western U.S. This problem could be lessened
by using a closed-loop system, but this could increase overall
cost by as much as 15 percent.2 It has also been suggested that
other slurry media, such as liquid fossil fuels (crude oil, shale
oil, or coal syncrude) or methanol, be used rather than water.
At the receiving end, either the mixture could be burned whole
or separated for different uses.
If water is used and not recycled, disposal at the receiving
end can create environmental problems. The water must be cleaned
before disposal or before use for power plant cooling or other
industrial purposes. Other perceived disadvantages of coal
slurry pipelines are accidental leaks and lack of operational
flexibility. In the case of leaks, the problem portion of the
line must be flushed out before repair, thus requiring that the
slurry mixture be held in some container, either for reuse or for
disposal. Also, lack of operational flexibility can be a problem
since the slurry cannot be allowed to settle in the pipeline.
Available mitigative measures in cases of reduced demand include
reducing the slurry velocity, increasing the water volume, or
stockpiling transported coal.
Figure 12-9 indicates the number and routes of slurry pipe-
lines needed to transport western coal for the Nominal case in
the year 2000. Each pipeline is assumed to transport 25 million
tons of coal per year and thus will require approximately 18,400
acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of water at the pipeline source.
For the Nominal case in the year 2000, the 17 pipelines origi-
nating in the Northern Great Plains will require approximately
313,000 acre-ft/yr or 23 percent of the water for energy in that
area. Approximately 28,000 acre-ft of water will be required by
the pipelines orginating in the Four Corners states, equivalent
to 2. 9 percent of the water for energy in the Upper Colorado. 3
Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office. The Coal
Pipeline Alternative. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors'
Regional Energy Policy Office, 1975.
2
Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo. Route Specific Cost
Comparisons; Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High
Voltage Transmission (Appendix B of this report).
3
Further details on water use can be found in Section 12.3.
924
-------
to
Cn
Resource Basin
FIGURE 12-9:
2000 COAL SLURRY PIPELINE ENERGY TRANSPORTED FROM WESTERN REGION,
NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
(Capacity of each pipeline is assumed to handle 25 million tons
per year of coal.)
-------
The Nominal case will require approximately 20,100 miles of
38-inch diameter slurry pipelines by 2000. If a construction
cost of $800,000 per mile1 is used, total construction capital
expenditures would be $16.1 billion for the pipelines required
in the year 2000 for the Nominal case. (For a construction cost
of $1 million per mile,^ capital expenditures would be $20.1
billion.) These figures range from $12.2 billion for the Low
Demand case to $25 billion for the Low Nuclear Availability case.
Since pipeline operation is not as labor intensive as unit train
operation, a smaller proportion of expense is subject to escala-
tion * It has been reported that only 27., 1 percent of pipeline
annual costs are subject to escalation, as compared with 98.5
percent for railroads..3 But by the same token, a higher portion
of pipeline costs are capital; hence, commitment must be made
before demand levels are confirmed,.
Based on steel requirements of 390 tons per mile, 7_8 mil-
lion, 5.9 million, and 12,2 million tons of steel are required
for the Nominal Demand, Low Demand, and Low Nuclear Availability
cases, respectively, by the year 2000.
If a 100-foot right-of-way is assumed, approximately 244,000
acres would be occupied by coal slurry lines in 2000 by the
Nominal case. Similarly, 184,000 acres and 379,000 acres will be
required by the projections for the Low Demand and Low Nuclear
Availability cases, respectively. These values do not include
land requirements for pump stations or preparation and dewatering
facilities.
12.7.5 High Btu Gas Pipelines
Based on the Nominal Demand case, nine gas pipelines of 1
billion cubic feet (bcf) per day capacity will originate in the
Northern Great Plains, while four will be required in the Four
Corners area (Nominal case) in the year 2000 to transport both
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
2
Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo. Route Specific Cost
Comparisons; Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High
Voltage Transmission (Appendix B of this report).
"Coal Pipeline Beats Out Transmission Lines." Electrical
World, Vol. 184 (December 1, 1975), p. 58.
4
U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence
Blueprint, Final Task Force Report; Analysis of Requirements and
Constraints on the Transport of Energy Materials, Vol. 1. Wash-
ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974.
926
-------
natural and synthetic gas. The number of pipelines and routes
are shown in Figure 12-10. Data filed with the Federal Power
Commission (FPC) show that two major interstate gas pipeline
companies have lines currently traversing the Four Corners states
with a total yearly capacity of 2,341 bcf, exclusive of added
compression or looping which would increase the capacity. There-
fore, except for short gathering lines to tie in with these
existing trunk lines, it is anticipated that no new pipelines will be
required to transport the gas projected to be produced in the
Rocky Mountain region for the Nominal case. Existing lines will
progressively transport less natural gas and more synthetic gas.
Based on the same FPC data, one major gas pipeline with a
capacity of 56 bcf per year currently traverses the Northern
Great Plains. In addition, the proposed Northern Border Pipeline
Company pipeline will traverse the region.1
The Nominal case will require that 4 bcf, 201 bcf, and 3.43'
trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas per year be produced in the
Northern Great Plains in 1985, 1990, and 2000, respectively. In
this case, current lines will be adequate until the late 1980's,
but new pipelines with a capacity of 3.37 tcf per year will be
required by 2000. For the routes needed, approximately 7,300
miles of 36-inch pipelines costing nearly $2.8 billion 2 will be
required by 2000. Assuming a 60-foot right-of-way, approximately
53,000 acres of land will be required.
T
12.7.6 Liquid Fossil Fuel Pipelines
Liquid fuel flows from the western region to the three
refinery regions for the Nominal case in the year 2000 are shown
in Figure 12-11. Liquid fuels are composed of crude oil, shale
oil, and coal syncrude. The number of nominal-sized 600,000-
barrel per day (bbl/day) pipelines which will be required for each
route are also indicated.
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research.
Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products
Projected to 1980 and 1985. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1974.
2
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
927
-------
to
CO
Resource Basin
FIGURE 12-10:
2000 HIGH BTU GAS TRANSMISSION FROM WESTERN REGION,
NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
(Capacity of each pipeline is one billion cubic feet per day.)
-------
to
FIGURE 12-11: 2000 LIQUID PIPELINE (CRUDE OIL, SHALE OIL, COAL SYNCRUDE)
ENERGY TRANSPORTED FROM WESTERN REGION NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
-------
Existing trunkline .capacity from the Northern Great Plains
has been estimated as 620,000 bbl/day.1 In the Nominal case,
142,000 bbl/day will be produced in the year 2000 in the area.
Therefore, except for tie-in lines, existing crude oil trunkline
capacity should be capable of transporting the projected produc-
tion of liquid fossil fuels from the Northern Great Plains to
refinery centers.
In the Nominal case, the Four Corners area will produce 3.91
million bbl/day of liquid fossil fuels in the year 2000. How-
ever, the Interstate Commerce Commission estimates the available
crude oil trunkline capacity out of the area as 260,000 bbl/day.2
As a result, almost all the approximately 2,400 miles of 36-inch
pipelines must be newly constructed. Projected construction
costs in 2000 are $684 million (1974 dollars).3 Assuming a 60-
foot right-of-way, land requirements will be approximately 17,500
acres.
12.7.7 Electrical Transmission
Electrical energy transmission from the western region for
the Nominal case in the year 2000 is shown in Figure 12-12. This
electricity is assumed to be generated at the mine-mouth. Trans-
mission is assumed to be by 600-kilovolt (kV) , 2,160-megawatt
direct current (DC) transmission lines. The number of lines
required for each route is indicated in the figure.
Mine-mouth electrical generation for export will require new
transmission facilities to tie into existing grid systems because
few of the hypothesized mines are located near metropolitan
demand centers. For the Nominal case in 2000, approximately
13,000 miles of DC lines (or equivalent carrying capacity in
alternating current {AC} lines) will be required. Based on
available cost data, the total capital cost for these lines would
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research.
Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products
Projected to 1980 and 1985. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, 1974.
2Ibid.
Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
930
-------
u>
FIGURE 12-12: 2000 ELECTRICITY TRANSMITTED FROM WESTERN REGION, NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
-------
be between $3 billion1 and $13.2 billion.2 These 'values are
approximate since transmission line costs are both energy and
distance dependent.
The choice between AC and DC transmission is not clear
because there are advantages and disadvantages to both systems.
DC transmission was selected for the regional scenario analysis
because it has potential for lower power losses and reduced envi-
ronmental impact in the high-volume, long-distance applications
considered in this study.
The technology of transmitting electricity via high-voltage
direct current (HVDC) lines is still in its early development
stages as compared to AC transmission. Consequently, the use of
HVDC has been fairly limited. Of the 39,502 circuit miles of
overhead extra-high voltage (EHV) transmission lines operational
in 1974, only 865 miles were DC lines operating at ^400 kV.3 it
has been estimated that by 1980 approximately 1,670 miles of
i400 kilovolt direct current will be operational.^
In general, HVDC transmission lines (whether overhead or
underground) can carry significantly higher line loads than their
high voltage alternating current (HVAC) equivalents. For example,
EHV DC overhead systems can transmit power in the 3,000-6,000
megwatt-electric range without known adverse effects on the envi-
ronment. 5 For a given line voltage, DC transmission lines incur
Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo. Route Specific Cost
Comparisons: Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High
Voltage Transmission (Appendix B of this report).
2
"Coal Pipeline Beats Out Transmission Lines." Electrical
World, Vol. 184 (December 1, 1975), p. 58.
"The Electric Century, 1874-1974." Electrical World, Vol.
183 (June 1, 1974), p. 116.
4
U.S., Federal Power Commission. 1970 National Power Survey.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971, Part 1.
U.S., Federal Council for Science and Technology, Office of
Science and Technology, Energy R&D Goals Study Panel. Electrical
Transmission and Systems. Washington, D.C.: Federal Council for
Science and Technology, 1972; and Knudsen, N., and F. Iliceto.
"Contribution to the Electrical Design of EHVDC Overhead Lines."
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93
(January/February 1974), pp. 233-39.
932
-------
less transmission losses than AC.1 The simplicity of the DC
transmission line tower design produces fewer land-use and visual
impacts.2 DC overhead transmission line costs, at minimum dis-
tances of 400 miles, are approximately 33-percent less than those
for a comparable AC transmission line.3 in the case of under-
ground transmission lines, the cost of installing a DC line is
about 50-percent less than the cost of an AC line of the same
power rating for a distance greater than 40 miles. Other advan-
tages have also been documented.4
Although HVDC transmission systems have a number of advan-
tages, their terminal facilities (especially converter-inverter
equipment) are complex and expensive. Thus, AC may be preferable
in short-distance situations or when several destinations are to
be served simultaneously.
Despite the experience gained with HVAC (765-kV) power
transmission lines, -> two basic problems still exist: the
electrostatic potential gradient from conductor to ground and the
audible noise generated by corona discharge during unfavorable
U.S., Federal Power Commission. 1970 National Power Survey.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971, Parts 1 and
4.
"The Electric Century, 1874-1974." Electrical World, Vol.
183 (June 1, 1974), p. 116; and "UHV Technology Is Rapidly
Emerging from the Laboratory and into Actual Service." Elec-
trical World, Vol. 183 (July 1, 1974), p. 40.
Martinson, Heine. "Future Applications for HVDC." Paper
presented at the 3rd Energy Transportation Conference, 1973.
4
U.S., Federal Council for Science and Technology, Office of
Science and Technology, Energy R&D Goals Study Panel. Electrical
Transmission and Systems. Washington, D.C.: Federal Council for
Science and Technology, 1972; "Electric Century."; FPC. National
Power Survey; Knudsen, N., and F. Iliceto. "Contribution to the
Electrical Design of EHVDC Overhead Lines." IEEE Transactions on
Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93 (January/February 1974),
pp. 233-39; Martinson. "HVDC."; and "UHV Technology."
Vassell, Gregory S., Raymond M. Maliszewski, and Norman B.
Johnsen. "Experience with the AEP 765-KV System: Part 2—Sys-
tem Performance." IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Sys-
tems , Vol. PAS-92 (July/August 1973), pp. 1337-47.
933
-------
weather conditions.1 The first problem, normally called
electrostatic effects, can cause discomfort and, in some cases,
serious shock. These electrostatic effects have been observed
to cause skin tingling, movements of body hair, and microsparking
from vegetation to a person's legs.2 This problem can be alle-
viated by providing an adequate mid-span clearance to ground,
installing grounded wires below the energized conductors, fencing
off the transmission line right-of-way, or using electrostatic
shields in critical locations.
Audible noise caused by corona discharges result from the
accumulation of water droplets on the conductors, creating inten-
sified surface gradients. Corona discharge is observed to be
influenced by conductor size, geometrical arrangement of the
bundle, phase spacing, height above ground, and the type of con-
ductor material.^ Corona discharges have caused some public
concern about the generation of ozone. However, recent investi-
gations conclude that pollutant concentrations generated by con-
ductor corona on present EHV transmission lines are too low to
be deleterious to the environment.^
All overhead transmission lines will have a prominent visual
impact. For example, single-circuit 1100 kilovolt alternating
current test lines are carried by towers that stand about 209
feet high in contrast to existing 500-kV lines on 129-foot towers
U.S., Federal Council for Science and Technology, Office of
Science and Technology, Energy R&D Goals Study Panel. Electrical
Transmission and Systems. Washington, D.C.: Federal Council for
Science and Technology, 1972; "UHV Technology Is Rapidly Emerging
from the Laboratory and into Actual Service." Electrical World,
Vol. 183 (July 1, 1974), p. 40.
2"UHV Technology."
Federal Council for Science and Technology. Electrical
Transmission; "The Electric Century, 1874-1974." Electrical '
World, Vol. 183 (June 1, 1974), p. 116; Kolcio, N., B.J. Ware,
and R.L. Zagier. "The Apple Grove 750 KV Project Statistical
Analysis of Audible Noise Performance of Conductors at 775 KV."
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93
(May/June 1974), PP. 831-40.
4
Frydman, M., and C.H. Shih. "Effects of the Environment on
Oxidants Production in AC Corona." IEEE Transactions on Power
Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93 (January/February 1974),
pp. 436-r43; and Roach, J.F., V.L. Chartier, and F.M. Dietrich.
"Experimental Oxidant Production Rates for EHV Transmission Lines
and Theoretical Estimates of Ozone Concentrations Near Operating
Lines." IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol.
PAS-93 (March/April 1974), pp. 647-57.
934
-------
with the same circuit and tower configurations. Further, the
conductor bundles will be large and add to the visual impact.
The visual impact can be minimized by using aesthetically pleasing
structures and installing the towers so as to reduce line-of-
sight effects.1
Assuming a 200-foot right-of-way, the 13,000 circuit miles
projected for the year 2000 will require approximately 315,000
acres. Rights-of-way are usually purchased and then leased for
other uses or are obtained through easements. After tower con-
struction, most of the land is normally returned to agricultural
or other uses, although questions are being raised about the
multiple uses of transmission line corridors.2
12.8 NOISE IMPACTS
12.8.1 Introduction
Noise can be defined as any sound that may produce an unde-
sired physiological or psychological effect in an individual
or animal or that may interfere with the behavior of an indi-
vidual or group.3 Physiologically, noise can temporarily or
permanently damage hearing, interfere with speech communications
and the perception of auditory signals, disturb sleep, interfere
with the performance of complicated tasks, and adversely affect
mood. More intangibly, it often can be a source of annoyance.4
U'.S., Department of Agriculture and Department of the Inte-
rior. Environmental Criteria for Electric Transmission Systems.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973; U.S., Federal
Power Commission. Electric Power Transmission and the Environ-
ment: Guidelines for the Protection of Natural, Historic, Scenic,
and Recreational Values in the Design and Location of Right-of-
Way and Transmission Facilities. Washington, D.C.: Federal
Power Commission, 1971; and Litton, R. Burton, Jr. Landscape
Control Points; A Procedure for Predicting and Monitoring Visual
Impacts, Research Paper PSW-91. Berkeley, Calif.: U.S., Depart-
ment of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest
and Range Experiment Station, 1973i and Western Systems Coordi-
nating Council. Environmental Guidelines. Denver, Colo.:
Western Systems Coordinating Council, 1971.
2
Young, Louise B. Power Over People. New York, N.Y.:
Oxford University Press, 1973.
Kerbec, Matthew J. "Noise and Hearing," Preprint from 1972
edition of Your Government and the Environment. Arlington, Va.:
Output Systems Corporation, 1971.
Miller, James D. Effects of Noise on People. St. Louis,
Mo.: Central Institute for the Deaf, 1971.
935
-------
Within recent years, recognition and quantification of these
effects have resulted in noise becoming identified as an environ-
mental pollutant that raises both social and health concerns.
The following analysis of noise impacts focuses on illustra-
tive cases considered representative of conditions that may be
encountered in the construction, mining, transportation, and
operation activities of energy facilities. As a starting point
in the analysis, noise levels for four activities are estimated:
transporting coal by railroad unit train; constructing a 3,000-
megawatt-electric (MWe) power plant; operating a 3,000-MWe power
plant; and surface strip mining. These cases were analyzed to
determine whether the noise they will produce would be a source
of concern for inhabitants located near the sources. Evaluations
were based on the equivalent sound level averaged over 24 hours
and historical data on the response of humans to these average
levels.
12.8.2 Methods and Criteria
Based on many laboratory and field studies, quantitative
values of noise level can be related to effects on people. Some
20 different measures of noise have been developed and are used
in practice. A particular measure is generally adopted to satisfy
the specific objectives of a noise evaluation program.
In evaluations of the impact of environmental noise, Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA) criteria were used as the basis
for estimating effects from construction, operating, and mining.
EPA recommends the use of the long-term equivalent A-weighted
sound2 levels with an adjustment to account for'the greater
impact that a noise has at night than during the day.3 The noise
level limits considered essential to protect public welfare and
safety are presented in Table 12-70.
Additional criteria may be developed based on the
efforts required to communicate in the presence of ambient
White, Frederick. Our Acoustic Environment. New York,
N.Y.: Wiley, 1975.
2
A-weighted sound is a single value measured that approxi-
mates sound as processed by the human ear.
The "day-night average sound level" is the mathematically
defined measure of average sound level recommended by Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
936
-------
TABLE 12-70:
SOUND LEVELS REQUIRED TO PROTECT
PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE3
Effect
Level
Area
Hearing loss*5
Outdoor activity
interference and
annoyance
Ldn
-70 dB
-55 dB
L (24) -55 dB
Indoor activity
interference and
annoyance
Ldn
-45 dB
Leg(24) -45 dB
All areas
Outdoors in residential
areas and farms and
other outdoor areas
where people spend
widely varying
amounts of time and
other places in which
quiet is a basis for
use.
Outdoor areas where
people spend limited
amounts of time, such
as school yards, play-
grounds , etc.
Indoor residential
areas.
Other indoor areas with
human activities such
as schools, etc.
dB = decibel (s)
= the sound level L
nighttime sounds.
weighed with a 10-dB larger impact for
Leq = the sound level averaged over a 2 4 -hour period.
Source: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise
Abatement and Control, Information on Levels of Environmental
Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Ade-
quate Margin of Safety. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, 1974, p. 3.
to be read as follows: To protect from a hearing loss
effect, the sound level Leg(24) must be less than 70dB in all
areas, both indoor and outdoor.
Hearing loss level represents annual averages of daily sound
level over a period of 40 years.
937
-------
TABLE 12-71:
SOUND LEVELS PERMITTING
SPEECH COMMUNICATION
Ti"i C! 4- cs TI ta y
Distance3
(feet)
1
2
3
4
5
6
12
Ambient Sbund Level for
Speech Communication (dBA)
Low
Voice
60
54
50
48
46
44
38
Normal
Voice
66
60
56
54
52
50
44
Raised
Voice
72
66
62
60
58
56
50
Very Loud
Voice
78
72
68
66
64
62
56
dBA = decibels A-weighted
Source: Tracer, Inc. Guidelines on Noise.
Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute,
1973.
Distance between speaker and listener.
sound levels. These efforts are shown in Table 12-71 and
indicate, for example, that for an ambient sound level of
78 decibels (dB) measured on the A-scale, a very loud voice
must be used to communicate with someone only 1 foot away.
These criteria are consistent with the effect of noise on tele-
phone communication, where a background noise level above 75 dBA
(decibels A-weighted) makes telephone conversation difficult
(Table 12-72).
The change in sound level is an important factor in assessing
the impact from added noise sources. It is just possible to
detect a change in noise level of 2-3 dBA, while a 5-dBA change
is readily apparent. An increase in noise level of 10 dBA is
equivalent to a doubling of the loudness of the sound.
The effects of noise on wildlife and domestic animals are
less well understood. Studies of animals subjected to varying
noise exposures in laboratories have demonstrated physiological
and behavioral changes, and these reactions are assumed applicable
to wildlife. However, no scientific evidence currently corre-
lates the two. Large animals adapt quite readily to high sound
938
-------
TABLE 12-72:
QUALITY OF TELEPHONE USAGE
IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY-
STATE MASKING NOISE
Noise Level
(dBA)a
30-50
50-65
65-75
Above 75
Telephone Usage
Satisfactory
Slightly Difficult
Difficult
Unsatisfactory
dBA = decibels A-weighted
Source: Tracer, Inc. Guidelines
on Noise. Washington, D.C.:
American Petroleum Institute, 1973
levels. Conversely, loud noise disrupts brooding in poultry and
consequently can decrease egg production.1
The major effect of noise on wildlife is related to the use
of auditory signals. Acoustic signals are important for survival
in some wildlife species. Probably the most important effect is
related to the prey-predator situation. An animal that relies
on its ears to locate prey and an animal that relies on its ears
to detect predators are both impaired by intruding noise.2 The
reception of auditory mating signals could be limited and there-
fore affect reproduction. Distress or warning signals from
mother animals to infants (or vice versa) or within groups of
social animals could be masked and possibly lead to increased
mortality. There are clues that short-term high noise levels
may startle wild game birds and stop the brooding cycle for an
entire season.3
A final suggested noise criterion is the likelihood of com-
munity response to noise levels; this is shown in Figure 12-13.
If the day-night average sound level is above 65 dB, widespread
complaints about the noise can be expected.
National Technical Information
Memphis State University. Effects of Noise on Wildlife and
Other Animals. Springfield, Va.:
Service, 1971.
2Ibid.
3Ibid.
939
-------
60-r
percent
highly
annoyed
50- -
40--
30- -
20- -
10- -
50
55
Vigorous
''Community Reaction
Widespread Complaints
''and Threats of Legal Action
Spqradij: _CompJ aijits
Little or No Reaction
60 65 70 75 80
day-night average noise, L^, .in dB
Source: Crocker, Malcolm J., and A. John Price. Noise and
Noise Control. 2 vols. Cleveland, Ohio: CRC Press, 1975.
Figure 12-13: EXPECTED DAY-NIGHT HUMAN RESPONSES AT VARIOUS
NOISE LEVELS
940
-------
In this analysis, noise levels were predicted using a simple
model that incorporates information on ambient air and topo-
graphic conditions and the properties of energy dispersion in air
under these conditions. The results of this model predict energy
levels at selected distances from single or multiple sources. The
results are presented in terms of day-night equivalent sound
levels (Ldn).
12.8.3 Rail Transport of Coal1
_Residents will certainly notice noise created by coal trains
passing through their town. In most small western towns there
are few buildings to block sound transmission, and the noise level
from a passing unit train will be high enough to interfere with
outdoor activity and to annoy people for approximately 1 mile on
either side of the tracks. One train per day will raise the
daily averaged noise measure above the outdoor annoyance level
within 800 feet of the tracks. If as discussed in Section 12 .7 . 3. ,
43 trains per day travel along a given line, the noise impact on
people living nearby would be considerable.
Radiated noise characteristics of unit trains have been
determined by calculating the noise radiated and its attenuation
for each of the engines and cars, then summing the total for
various locations away from the track.2 The dBA as a function of
time is shown in Figure 12-14 for three observer distances from
the tracks: 100 feet, 1,000 feet, and 3,000 feet. The calcula-
tions assume that there are few buildings in the town to block
or attenuate sound transmission.
At 100 feet, the separate contributions of the locomotive
and the coal cars will stand out clearly. Engine noise will
dominate for about a minute, and the peak value will be more than
100 dBA. This noise level will require shouting to communicate
with another person at a distance of 1 foot.^
Each coal train is assumed to be about 1 mile long and com-
prised of 5 diesel locomotives and 100 freight cars. The speed
of the train through town is assumed to be 20 miles per hour;
thus, it will take about 3 minutes for the entire train to pass
by an observer. The capacity of each car is 100 tons for a total
of 10,000 tons.
o
Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment of Noise
Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report No. WRC 73-5.
El Segundo, Calif.: Wyle Laboratories, 1973.
Occupational Safety and Health Administration regulations
limit exposure to 100 decibels A-weighted noise to no more than
two hours per day.
941
-------
CO
O
CM
w
s
w
CO
H
O
g
100-
90-
iH=100' (OBSERVER DISTANCE FROM TRACKS)
100
200
TIME (SECONDS)
300
400
FIGURE 12-14: NOISE LEVEL OF PASSING COAL TRAIN
-------
At 1,000 feet, the noise level will vary more smoothly with
time, and the separate contributions of engine and coal car noise
will not be so clearly defined. The noise level will be above
55 dBA for about 8 minutes. This is the level specified by the
EPA as the "outdoor activity interference and annoyance" thres-
hold. At 3,000 feet, the noise level will still be above 55 dBA
for about 6 minutes, but the observed peak level will be reduced
to 61 dBA.
As noted earlier, the Ldn is useful for predicting community
annoyance and reaction. Figure 12-15 shows the predicted Ldn
values at 100 feet and 1,000 feet as a function of the number of
trains per day. Within 800 feet of the tracks, one train per day
will cause an L^n of 55 dBA, and some community reaction can be
expected. Several trains per day would generate an even greater
response. This situation can be expected all along the many rail
lines carrying coal from western mines.
12.8.4 Plant Construction
Facility construction noise will be much more localized than
rail transport and will be caused primarily by heavy construction
equipment. Plant construction noise was assumed to be concen-
trated in four areas: reservoir, ash disposal area, evaporative
ponds, and cooling tower and power block construction. The
equipment assumed to be operating in each area was:
Reservoir: 1 crane, 3 bulldozers, 6 dump
", trucks
Ash disposal area: 1 crane, 2 bulldozers, 4 dump
trucks
;.
Evaporative ponds: 1 grader, 2 bulldozers
Cooling tower and 2 cranes, 6 air compressors
power block construe- 4 rock drills, 10 pneumatic
tion wrenches, 6 welding generators,
2 graders, 6 dump trucks
• The sound levels for each of these pieces of equipment are
listed in Table 12-73.
The total sound pressure level of the equipment in each of
the four areas will be: reservoir, 92.3 dBA; ash disposal, 91.3
dBA; evaporative ponds, 88.5 dBA; and power block and cooling
tower, 109.9 dBA. The principal contributors to cooling tower
and power block construction will be pneumatic wrenches and rock
drills. Trucks will also-be significant noise sources, largely
because of their numbers.
943
-------
90--
80- -
Ldn
-------
TABLE 12-73:
REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL FOR
CONSTRUCTION NOISE SOURCES
Equipment
Bulldozer
Air Compressor
Welding Generator
Rock Drill
Pneumatic Drill
Crane
Grader
Dump Truck
Sound Level Per Unit
tdBA}
8Q
86
83
99
98
88
86
81
dBA = decibels A—weighted
Source: Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, Noisg
from Construction Equipment and Operations,
Building Equipment, and Home Appliances.
Cambridge, Mass.: Bolt, Beranek, and
Newman, 1971.
Expected noise radiation during plant construction is shown
in Figure 12-16. Contours of constant sound level (L
-------
1_ I • • I I 1
'•-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000
-2000 -0 2000
DISTWCE IN FEET
4000
6000
8000
10000 12000
FIGURE 12-16: RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL POWER PLANT
CONSTRUCTION
946
-------
50' HIGH BARRIER
BULLDOZER
COAL HAULERS
Dl
X
3A
X
GLINE ROC
X
EB>
,K DRILL ^
&s\
X
yy
BULL DOZER
50' HIGH BARRIER (SPOILS)
100
FIGURE 12-17: TYPICAL COAL MINE SCENARIO
947
-------
TABLE 12-74:
REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL
FOR MINING NOISE SOURCES
Equipment
Dragline
Bulldozer
Rock Drill
Loader
Coal Haulers
Sound Level Per Unit
(dBA)
68
82
72
72
7
dBA = decibels A-weighted
Source: Battelle Memorial Institute,
Columbus Laboratories. Detailed Envi-
ronmental Analysis Concerning a Pro-
posed Coal Gasification Plant for Trans-
Western Coal Gasification Co., Pacific
Coal Gasification Co., and Western Gas-
ification Co., and the Expansion of a
Strip Mine Operation Near Burnham, N.M.
Owned and Operated by Utah Interna-
national, Inc. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle
Columbus Laboratories, 1973.
Predicted radiation noise levels, in the form of Ldn contours,
are shown in Figure 12-18 for the typical surface mining
operation.
Haulers will be the principal noise source. Their Ld will
be less than 55 dBA in all directions for distances greater than
2,000 feet and will have less impact than the noise levels pre-
dicted for power plant construction and operation.
12.8.6 Plant Operation
Principal noise sources for a typical coal-fired power plant
will include the cooling towers, pulverizer, bulldozers on the
coal pile, coal car shakers, and railroad car switching. Repre-
sentative data for these equipments are listed in Table 12-75.
Attenuations due to the power block and the coal pile were
included in the noise level prediction calculations.
948
-------
LEGENJ
- SITE KUCfRY
- - - ATTEMBTIN3 BARRIERS
T
IDOOO 12000
1 1
-12000 -10000 -8COO
-6000
1
-4000
1
-2000
-0
2000
4000
eooo
BOOO
OlSTflNCE IN FEET
FIGURE 12-18:
RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL COAL MINING
OPERATION
949
-------
TABLE 12-75:
REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL FOR COAL-
FIRED POWER PLANT NOISE SOURCES
Equipment
Cooling Towersa
Pulverizer
Bulldozers*3 (270 horsepower)
Car Switching01 (50% duty)
Coal Car Shakers
Sound Level Per Unit
(dBA)
104
104
80
82
101
dBA = decibels A-weighted
Tracor, Inc. Guidelines on Noise. Washington, D.C.:
American Petroleum Institute, 1973.
Bolt, Beranek, and Newman. Noise from Construction
Equipment and Operations, Building Equipment and
Home Appliances. Cambridge, Mass.: Bolt, Beranek,
and Newman, 1971.
°Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment of
Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report
No. WCR 73-5. El Segundo, Calif.: Wyle Laboratories,
1973.
The predicted radiated noise levels for plant operation are
shown in Figure 12-19. L^n levels of 55 dBA will extend to about
1 mile from the plant. Thus, some community annoyance should be
expected out to this distance. L
to about 1.7 miles from the plant.
noticeable to about this range.
12.8.7 Summary
dn
levels of 45 dBA will extend
The plant noise will be
The rail shipment of coal by unit trains in the West will be
a major contributor of noise impacts from energy development.
This will be especially significant because of the length of rail
line and thus the number of people impacted. (Some estimates are
discussed in Section 12.7.) At a more local level, energy con-
version facility construction and operation will create annoying
noise levels up to 1 mile away from a plant site. Surface mining
will be less of a noise problem, with annoyance levels extending
less than .5 mile from the mine, largely because of spoils piles
and other barriers. The distribution of mining and facility
noise impacts will depend entirely on the locational distribution
of energy development in the West.
950
-------
i-
g-
LEGOO
N ISOR.ETH
SITE ECLKSfiY
flTIENJflTINJ 8WUERS
1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 f ~T 1
'-12000 -10000 -6000 -6000 -4000 -2000 -0 2000 4000' 6000 8000 10000 12000
DISTANCE IN FEET
FIGURE 12-19: RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL POWER PLANT
OPERATION
951
-------
12.9 AESTHETIC IMPACTS
12.9.1 Introduction
Since aesthetic impacts are subjective, they vary among
individuals. For example, personal experiences and priorities
basically determine the values that-different people place on visual
qualities. Although aesthetic characteristics are a quality-of-life
consideration, the latter are generally associated with more tangible
social and economic aspects of life, such as satisfaction with
personal income, housing, and employment. However, both kinds
of concerns are identifiable only through personal responses.
Especially for aesthetics, technical measures and aggregate tabu-
lations of data must give way in large part to subjective reac-
tions .
Our categories of aesthetic impacts include land, air,
sounds, water, biota, and man-made objects (Table 12-76); the
overall aesthetic character of a place is comprised of all these
factors. Site-specific identification is required because varia-
tion from place to place is an essential aspect of aesthetics.
Impacts and their causes in each of the six categories are
discussed in the following sections.
12.9.2 Land
Strip mining will be the source of most of the aesthetic
land impacts throughout the West. The texture of overburden
piles is usually coarse but not distinctive, and uniform from
pile to pile. The color varies depending on the location but
seems most often to be a uniform grey, a color that quite often
is not consistent with the surrounding surface. Long ridges with-
out variation are the major relief and topographic characteris-
tics of overburden spoils.
State strip-mining reclamation legislation typically con-
tains provisions requiring land to be returned to its original
grade; in many cases in the West, this will improve the aesthetic
nature of strip-mined topography. In some cases, aesthetics
could be improved by regrading efforts that add distinctive new
contours to the land and that allow the development of vegetation
which was not natural to the area before mining took place.
Success of reclamation will vary, but the arid Four Corners area
and local areas such as southeastern Montana (where aquifers lie
within or near coal seams) will be less easily restored.
12.9.3 Air
Air-related aesthetic impacts are likely no matter where
conversion facilities are located in the West. Long-range visi-
bility as.a physical air impact is discussed in Section 12.2.
The long-range visibility and clean air now enjoyed in most areas
952
-------
TABLE 12-76: CATEGORIES OF AESTHETIC IMPACTS
Category
Contribution Factors
Land
Air
Sounds
Water
Biota
Man-made
Objects
Surface Texture and Color
Relief and Topographic Character
Odor
Visibility
Background
Intermittent
Clarity and Rate of Movement
Shoreline Appearance
Odor and Floating Material
Domestic Animals, Kind and Quantity
Wild Animals
Diversity and Density of Vegetation
Unique Species
Density
Skyline Alteration
Conspicuousness
Overall Impression
Isolation
Unique Composition
Source: adapted from Battelle Memorial Institute,
Columbus Laboratories. Final Environmental Evalua-
tion System for Water Resource Planning, Report to
U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama-
tion, Contract No. 14-06-D-7182. Washington, D.C.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1972, pp. 59-86? Brossman,
Martin W. Quality of Life Indicators; A Review of
State-of-the-Art and Guidelines Derived to Assist in
Developing Environmental Indicators. Springfield,
Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1972;
Water Resources Research Center of the Thirteen
Western States, Technical Committee. Water Resources
Planning, Social Goals and Indicators; Methodological
Development and Empirical Test. Logan, Utah: Utah
State Univeristy, Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1974.
953
-------
of the western states are highly valued, and the deterioration of
visibility, whether physically measurable or not, is widely con-
sidered a significant aesthetic impact.1 A single visible plume
in an otherwise clear sky can result in a negative response from
some people.
Odors are frequently associated with air pollutants, such as
sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen. However, there are other
causes of odors such as trace pollutants and various hydrocarbons
(HC). Any noticeable odor will usually be perceived as an
aesthetic impact. Ground-level sources, such as fugitive HC
emissions will be a major source of this impact.
12.9.4 Noise
Noise impacts are detailed in Section 12.8. Most authors
place noise in the overall category of aesthetic impacts even
though criteria have been established for noise levels. The
reason for this is that noise criteria have been set for occu-
pational hazards but not for public nuisance; Noises which will
not damage hearing can still substantially disrupt the quality
of life in a community and, therefore, be aesthetically dis-
pleasing. As indicated in Section 12.7 and 12.8, people living
near busy rail lines in the West will be increasingly impacted
by noise.
12.9.5 Water
The clarity and rate of movement of water are highly valued
aesthetic qualities. Water consumption for energy development
will probably increase turbidity and lower flow rates, thereby
reducing the rate of water movement in many streams. Some eco-
logical impacts of this have been noted as secondary impacts in
some of the local scenarios discussed.
Shoreline appearance can be affected by increased nutrient
levels in streams which generate shoreline algae, by reduced
stream flows or lake levels which expose previously submerged
areas, or by increased turbidity which may settle out to change
the color of shore areas. Odors in streams can be caused by
increased biological or chemical oxygen demand, excess chlorine
or fluorine, and/or various trace materials and pollutants.
Odors can be perceived as aesthetically unpleasant even if levels
are well within water quality standards. Floating material is
almost never considered to be aesthetically pleasing. Garbage,
beverage cans, sewage, and oil slicks, all associated with
increased local population, are very apparent aesthetic impacts
and generate substantial negative public responses.
Josephy, Alvin M. "Kaiparowits: The Ultimate Obscenity,"
Audubon Magazine, Vol. 78 (Spring 1976), 64-90.
954
-------
12.9.6 Biota
The aesthetic impact of domestic animals is mixed and often
depends on the number of animals. Most people perceive a single
stallion or a mare and colt as being aesthetically pleasing, but
the dust and odor generated by a herd of horses is often consid-
ered a negative aesthetic impact. Wild animals are usually per-
ceived more favorably and considered to be an asset to an area.
A negative impact of energy facilities will occur, then, when a
development reduces the number of wild animals either due to
consumption of grazing land or the presence of increased popula-
tion. A valued feature of most public parks is the diversity
and well-being of both vegetation and wildlife.
Increased vegetation is almost always a welcome aesthetic
addition in and near urban areas. Reclamation efforts at strip
mines near towns are critical in this regard. The presence of
unique species of plants or animals is a highly valued aesthetic
benefit, and reductions in endangered species due to energy
development would be a major impact.
12.9.7 Man-Made Objects
The density of buildings or other man-made objects is usually
aesthetically important, and a vast expanse of buildings, rail-
road cars, drill holes, or other evidence of human presence is
aesthetically objectionable to many people. Skyline alteration
can be an important impact because of the long distance from
which a structure on the skyline can be observed. Tall smoke-
stacks or transmission lines are often the most objectionable of
these features, especially in the rural West where man-made
features are relatively few. However, even right-of-way clearings
for buried pipelines may produce an objectionable skyline altera-
tion.
Conspicuousness is related to skyline alteration, but a
facility may be conspicuous without altering the skyline. Color,
architectural design, and location relative to tall natural
features are important here, and facilities designed to conform
to the surroundings wherever possible are often aesthetic bene-
fits rather than costs. This will be least likely in the
Northern Great Plains where the local topography is flat.
12.9.8 Summary
The composite effect of facilities and surroundings can be
pleasing or objectionable without any of the above categories
being affected. Architectural compatability between new facili-
ties and surroundings are important here, as well as mundane
items such as fences and signs. There will be pressure to retain
untouched land features or locations with unique compositions or
appearances such as southern Utah.
955
-------
Isolation as an aesthetic value also varies among individuals .
For natives of the western states, isolation is often sought and
valued, and the increase in population and addition of new
facilities will be accurately perceived as a reduction in their
isolation. Methods of measuring aesthetic values and impacts are
not well-advanced but do tend to rely on extensive survey-based
information.
12.10 SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL IMPACTS
12.10.1 Air Impacts
With 80-percent efficient scrubbers on power plants, the
sulfur dioxide (S02) residual densities (tons of S02 residuals
per square mile of area) for counties in the oil shale area of
Colorado will approach those of Denver, Colorado. Thus, pollu-
tion problems similar to those in Denver may occur in those
counties. The highest levels of coal conversion in the Northern
Great Plains would also result in residual densities close to
those in Denver. The possibility that plume impaction will
generate high ambient concentrations in local areas also exists, but
plume impaction alone is a local impact and will not result in
widespread pollution.
If scrubbers are not used, a number of areas will experience
residual densities comparable to Denver. Densities in the oil
shale area of western Colorado would exceed Denver's. Substan-
tial areawide pollution would probably result. On this basis,
scrubbers will probably be needed to assure that air quality in
the Western states is maintained.
The emissions densities for the six states suggest that
sulfates are not likely to be a problem on a statewide basis.
However, on a local basis summer air mass trajectories (following
cold air fronts) would probably transport pollutants from the
Powder River Basin to Denver and pre-frontal trajectories would
probably transport pollutants from the San Juan Basin to Denver.
However, the air masses from the San Juan Basin must traverse the
Rockies before reaching Denver and would probably lose most pol-
lutants in the process.
Based on assumption that 1-3 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO2)
will convert to sulfates. Some studies indicate substantially
higher conversion of S02 to sulfates, from 5-20 percent per hour
for oil-fired power plants. U.S., Congress, House of Representa-
tives, Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Envi-
ronment and the Atmosphere. Review of Research Related to Sul-
fates in the Atmosphere, Committee Print. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1976.
956
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12.10.2 Water Impacts
Water requirements for energy facilities postulated for the
Upper Colorado River Basin for the year 2000 may be as much as
38-71 percent of the unused water in the Basin. (This could
be reduced to between 28 and 58 percent if water minimization
techniques are used.) Water requirements for energy facilities
in the Upper Missouri River Basin will only be about 10 percent
of the water not now being used.
There are serious legal and jurisdictional barriers to
acquiring water in both the Upper Colorado and Upper Missouri
River Basins. Competition for water in the Upper Colorado River
Basin (UCRB) will become more intense during the time frame of
the postulated energy development. Similarly, barriers exist to
the use of water from the Yellowstone River which appear to pro-
hibit certain energy uses and restrict others. Acquiring water
from other streams in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB)
would add substantial costs to some energy developments in the
Powder River Coal Basin.
For the quantities of water required for UCRB developments,
likely shortages could produce substantial impacts. Large-scale
energy development in the Basin will intensify existing problems
of surface water availability so that some potential users may be
denied water supplies. Consumption of this water could reduce
the dilution of salts in the Colorado River and increase dis-
solved solids concentrations. However, if this water were con-
sumed by agriculture, salt loading in the river would be aggravated
to an even greater degree since return flows from irrigation will
add salts to the river.
Groundwater resources in the UCRB are likely to be adversely
affected by mine dewatering, withdrawals for municipal or rural
domestic needs, and possibly by the disposal of sewage and indus-
trial effluents. Groundwater reductions from dewatering and
withdrawals will result in springs and seeps drying up. Efflu-
ents from energy facilities will be contained in lined holding
ponds but leaks or seepage could create ground- or surface-water
impacts.
Water needs for the postulated energy facilities in the
UMRB could eliminate the navigation season on the Lower Missouri
for as many as 11 of the next 75 years assuming 10 million acre-
feet of withdrawals for energy use. Groundwater resources from
the Madison aquifer may be used to supplement the water needs of
energy facilities in the UMRB. This may adversely affect the
availability of groundwater for municipal needs and necessitate
the drilling of deeper wells.
957
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12.10.3 Social, Economic and Political Impacts
By 2000, energy resource development in the study area will
result in population increases of between 750,000 and 1,250,000
in the region. Providing facilities and services for these people
will create problems for most of the governments involved, but
since the increases are due to energy developments which involve
substantial capital investments, the tax base available to pro- „
vide services will, on the average, be adequate. However, seri-
ous problems of intergovernmental cooperation might occur because
the jurisdiction receiving the tax income will not necessarily
be the one required to provide services.
Land consumed for energy facilities will not be a large
fraction of the total land available in the region, but in
resource-rich counties and subregions, as much as 19 percent of
land area will be occupied by energy facilities. This change in
land use will affect both the economy and lifestyle of the
present population.
The availability of skilled personnel to construct and
operate energy facilities will not generally be a problem because
the demands foremost critical skills are well below 10 percent
of the national supply. However, shortages may exist by 1985 in
three skill categories: mining engineers, chemical engineers,
and boilermakers. To satisfy the demand for these skills,
training programs must be initiated, particularly for boiler-
makers .
By 1985, unemployment could be reduced by nearly 13 percent
due to western energy development, and railroads and railroad
equipment industries will each experience 15 percent increases
in output. Bottlenecks in the development of other particular
subsectors of the economy may result from western energy develop-
ment. Steel foundries will need to increase production by nearly
10 percent, but within that sub-category only a few foundries can
handle the large pressure vessels and other equipment needed for
energy facilities. Nearly $1.3 billion in new investments in
support industries will be required to satisfy the demands of
western energy development in 1982. Railroads will need nearly
$420 million or 32 percent of that amount.
Geographically, four cities can be taken as examples of sub-
stantial impacts due to western energy development but for dif-
ferent reasons. These cities are: Birmingham, Alabama and
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for steel and railroad equipment; and
Salt Lake City, Utah and Duluth, Minnesota for mining-related
industries. Industries supporting the electric utilities will
also experience 5-10 percent increases in business.
958
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12.10.4 Ecological Impacts
Regional increases in human population will contribute to
habitat degradation, particularly in recreational areas. These
affects will probably be greatest in national forests, parks,
and wilderness areas in close proximity to resource development,
such as the Black Hills and White River National Forests.
For arid parts of the West, reclamation will be difficult,
particularly in areas that are presently being overgrazed. In
areas of greater rainfall or less stress from livestock, recla-
mation can be accomplished, although native biological commun-
ities will generally not,be restored.
Based on residuals generated by energy developments, wide-
spread damage to biota from air pollutants appears unlikely.
However, damage in localized areas near energy facilities may
occur.
Aquatic biota will be affected due to reductions in stream
flow and reservoir construction. Decreases in aquatic impacts
will be difficult to achieve if the anticipated water uses are
realized.
12.10.5 Health Impacts
Maintenance of the low levels of criteria pollutants
achieved in this scenario make health effects due to these pollu-
tants unlikely. However, a health hazard may exist if conversion
rates of SCU to sulfate approach 5 percent per hour. Under these
circumstances, health problems such as asthma, bronchitis, and
respiration diseases would be locally aggravated. Health effects
may occur due to trace materials and carcinogenic hydrocarbons
existing in coal or generated in processing facilities. Not
enough is known about the quantities or effects of these mate-
rials to determine the magnitude of impacts at this time.
12.10.6 Transportation Impacts
As noted above, increases in railway traffic may result in
substantial noise impacts; inconveniences at grade crossings,
and local restrictions of wildlife movements. By the year 2000,
as many as 80 unit trains per day will travel the route from the
Powder River Basin to Chicago, with comparable traffic between
other areas. For the Nominal case in the year 2000, 17 slurry
pipelines are postulated to originate in the Powder River Basin,
and these will require approximately 312,000 acre-feet of water
per year. The number of coal gondolas and engines for unit
trains will be significant and will require substantial increases
in equipment production.
959
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12.10.7 Aesthetic Impacts
The most significant aesthetic impacts will result from
changes in the appearance of strip-mined land, changes in long-
range visibility and odor of air due to air pollutants, reduc-
tions in clarity and flow of water, and changes in skyline
appearance. Increases in population and building densities will
also create aesthetic impacts.
12.10.8 Noise Impacts
Noise generated by coal unit trains can have a major impact
on the people living within 1 mile of the rights-of-way. Approx-
imately 1.1 million people along the route from Powder River
Basin to Chicago will be affected adversely, and substantial
re-routing of railroads will be necessary to reduce this impact.
Other noise impacts will only affect people close to energy
facilities.
960
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
REPORT NO.
EPA-600/7-77-072b
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Energy from the West: A Progress Report of a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development Volume II Detailed Analyses and Supporting
Materials
5. REPORT DATE
June, 1977
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
Irvin L. White, et al
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Science and Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma
601 Elm Avenue, Room 432
Norman, Oklahoma 73019
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
EHE 624C
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-01-1916
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry
Washington, D.C. 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final, July, 1975-March, 1977
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
This project is part of the EPA-planned and coordinated Federal Interagency
Energy/Environment R&D Program
16. ABSTRACT
This is a progress report of a three year technology assessment of the
development of six energy resources (coal, geothermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale,
and uranium) in eight western states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico,
North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) during the period from the present
to the year 2000. Volume I describes the purpose and conduct of the study,
summarizes the results of the analyses conducted during the first year, and outlines
plans for the remainder of the project. In Volume II, more detailed analytical
results are presented. Six chapters report on the analysis of the likely impacts
of deploying typical energy resource development technologies at sites representative
of the kinds of conditions likely to be encountered in the eight-state study area.
A seventh chapter focuses on the impacts likely to occur if wester energy resources
are develped at three different levels from the present to they year 2000. The two
chapters in Volume III describe the political and institutional context of
policymaking for western energy resource development and present a more detailed
discussion of selected problems and issues. The Fourth Volume presents two
appendices, on air quality modeling and energy transportation costs.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Systems Analysis
Electrical Power
Fossil Fuels
Ecology
Government Policies
Technology Assessment
Western Energy
Resource Development
Secondary Impacts
0402
0503
0504
0511
0606
0701
0809
1001
1002
1202
1302
1401
2104
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report}'
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
839
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
OU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1977-241-037/50
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