PB-204  174

A  STUDY OF  MARKETS  FOR  AIR  POLLUTION
MEASUREMENT  INSTRUMENTATION  1971-1980

Rene  R.  Bertrand

June  1971
                            DISTRIBUTED BY:
                            National Technical Information Service
                            U. S. DEPARTMENT  OF  COMMERCE
                            5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield Va. 22151

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ESSO  RESEARCH  AND  ENGINEERING  COMPANY
                       A STUDY OF MARKETS
              FOR AIR POLLUTION MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION
                          1971-1980
                            by
                       Rene R. Bertrand
                        Prepared Under


                    Contract No. CPA 22-69-154


                         June, 1971


                            for
                   Office of Program Development
                      Office of Air Programs
                   Environmental Protection Agency
                       Rockville, Maryland
                         GRU.1GAPI.71
government
research
P.  O.  BOX  8   •   LINDEN     NEW    JERSEY    07036

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blBLIOOKAHHIC DATA 1- Report No. 12.
SHEET APTD-0800 |
4. Title and Subtitle
A Study of Markets For Air Pollution Measurement
Instrumentation 1971-1980
7. Author(s)
Rene R. Bertrand
9. Performing Organization Name and Address
ESSO Research and Engineering Company
P. 0. Box 8
Linden, New Jersey 07036
12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
Office of Program Development
Office of Air Programs
Environmental Protection Agency
Rockville', Maryland
3. Recipient's Accession No.
5- l«p«ft Date
June 1971
6.
8. Performing Organization Kept.
No.
10. Project/Task/Work Unit No.
11. Contract/Grant No. j
CPA 22-69-154
13. Type of Report & Period
Covered
1
14.
is. Supplementary Notes DISCLAIMER - This report was furnished to the Ot rice of Airi
Programs by ESSO Research and Engineering Company, P. 0. Box 8, Linden,
Mew Jersey 07036 in fulfillment of CPA 22-69-154
16. Abstracts 1
See last page in the report for the completed bibliographic data sheet. j
I ./. Key Words and Document Analysis. 17o. Descriptors
' I7b. klcmi/ier.s/Open-Ended Terms

18. Availability Statement
19. .Security Class (This
Report)
UNCLASSIFIED
20. Security Class (This
Page
UNCLASSIFIED
21. No. of Pages
Ql
22. Price /
3
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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS


                                                                Page


 1.   Preface	   1

 2.   Summary.	   2

 3.   Introduction 	   9

 4.   Market for Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
      Instrumentation 	  11

 5.   Market for Stationary Source Emission Measurement
      Instrumentation 	  27

 6.   Market for Mobile Source Emission Measurement
      Instrumentation 	  68

 7.   Dollar Value of the Market	  82

 8.   Time Frame for the Market	  86

 9.   Acknowledgments	  91

10.   References	  92
                               III

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         UNCLASSIFIED
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Esso Research and
Government Researc
Linden, New Jersey
KKPONT TITLB
A Study of Markets
1971-1980
oral* milhof) . Mb ••POUT •ICUHIt'V.CA>AA|tetCATION
Engineering Company Unclassified
07036
for Air Pollution Measurement Instrumentation
OClCHiPTivK NOTKlfTyp* ol npetl *nd tnelutln dmlt*)
Final report
AU THOMOI (Flnl IMWW. mldttt*
Rene R. Bertrand
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June 1971
M. CONTRACT OX OHANT NO.
CPA 22-69-154
6. PMOJKCT NO.
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10. OKTP.IBUTION ITATKMKNT

   Distribution of this  report  is  unlimited,
II. fUPPlKMCNTAMV NOTCf
                                               Sponsoring Activity
                                               Office of Program Development
                                               Office of Air Programs
                                               Environmental Protection Agency
                                               D^^I,..J11^  M«^,,lQ^r1	^   J
It. ABITMACT
            The  market  for  air pollution  instrumentation during  the decade
   of  the  70's has  been determined.  The  market  analysis presented is
   based on the  survey  of instrumentation requirements conducted at the
   federal,  state,  and  local  level and  on an analysis of current legislation and
   air pollution control codes.  We  have  estimated  the market for three areas
   of  measurement instrumentation:   ambient level monitoring, stationary source
   emission  measurement, and  auto exhaust  measurement.  This market amounts to
   nearly  one-half  billion  dollars during the coming decade, some 767. of which
   represents initial purchases  of air  pollution measuring equipment.  Industry
   will be  the major purchaser of instrumentation accounting for 457. of the
   market.   The  market  is heavily oriented towards  stationary source emission
   measurement,  this area accounting for  one-half of the total instrumentation
   market  value.  It is  shown that the  timing is a  critical factor in the
   market with each of  the  ohree areas  of measurement reaching maturity at
   different periods during the decade.
  ESSO  1473
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Air pollution
Measurement instrumentation
Stationary sources of pollution
Ambient air quality monitoring
Auto exhaust measurement

Value of market
Emissions
Nitrogen oxides
Nitric oxides
Nitrogen dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Oxidants
Particulates
Fluorides
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Polynuclear organic matter
High volume sampler
Gas collector devices
. Dust fall collectors
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                                  - 1 -
                              1.   PREFACE
          This analysis of the market for air pollution instrumentation
during the period 1971-1980 was prepared to assist in the deteratuation
of a federal research and development plan for the fiscal years
1972-1977 to insure the timely availability of the measurement instrumen-
tation required for the Nation's air pollution control progratt.  The market
analysis was directed toward an assessment of the potential martot size
and thus the expected contribution that the private sector might Inake to
this program.

          In making this assessment, an effort has been made to keep the
assumptions concerning the potential application of instruments and the
cost of instrumentation as conservative as possible while still maintain-
ing a realistic view of the measurement requirements imposed by current
air pollution control legislation and the author's assessment of the
intent of such legislation.  This conservative approach was necessary t,o
insure that the federal air pollution instrumentation R/D plan, vbich
this market analysis complemented, would include the provision fot con-
ducting and supporting all required instrumentation R/D, unless an over-
whelming profit motive existed for support from the private sector.  This
approach, in all probability, has resulted in an undervaluation of the
total market for air pollution instrumentation during the coming decade.

          The analysis as  presented in  this  report was  essentially com-
pleted in July 197C and was based on proposed  legislation at that  time
before the Congress to amend the Air Quality  Act of  1967.   Issuance  of
the report was delayed to  await the final outcome of  the proposed  legis-
lation, in view of the major potential  impact this legislation was
expected to have on the market for stationary and mobile source measure-
ment instrumentation.  Minor revisions  have  recently  been-made to  the
report to reflect the provisions of the Clean Air Amendments of  1970
passed by Congress in December, 1970.   During this revision, the  oppor-
tunity was taken to make changes that reflect current federal  plans  for
support funding to the state and local  government air pollution  control
programs.  Notations have  also been added to  reflect  the views of.several
individuals  that have kindly reviewed the earlier drafts of this  report.
These views, for the most  part, put forth alternate measurement  strategies
or suggest additional Instrumentation requirements that could  greatly
increase the total market  for air pollution measurement instrumentation.

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                                  - 2 -
                              2.  SUMMARY
          This report presents an analysis of the domestic market for air
pollution instrumentation for the period 1971-1980.*

          The market for air pollution instrumentation during the decade
of the 70's has been determined as part of a project being conducted by
Esso Research and Engineering Company for the Office of Air Programs of the
Environmental Protection Agency.  This project has as its primary objective
the delineation of a federal research and development plan for air pollution
measurement instrumentation.  One part of this project involved a market
analysis to assess the opportunities available and thus the contribution
to this R/D program that might be expected from the private sector in
providing the measurement instrumentation required to assure the ability
of this nation to conduct an effective air pollution control effort.

          The market for three different areas requiring instruments to
obtain information on the concentration level of air contaminants is dis-
cussed.  These include:  monitoring of the ambient air quality level,
measurement of the emissions from stationary sources of air pollution,
and measurement of the emissions from the automobile.  The market for
these areas of instrumentation is based on a review of instrumentation
requirements at the federal, state, and local level and on an analysis of
current legislation and air pollution control codes.

          The scope of the market analysis has been limited to the sensors
required to detect and measure air contaminants and special hardware re-
quired to obtain the sample.  We have specifically excluded from our market
estimate the quantity and value of telemetering equipment and the cost of
instrument maintenance.  The analysis also excludes the market for instru-
mentation needed for the research and development programs which will sup-
port the Nation's air pollution control program.  The dollar value esti-
mates presented in this report include, where appropriate, a device to
record the pollutant concentration level.

Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring

          The market for ambient air quality level measurement equipment
has been divided into two basic types of air monitors.  The automatic
and continuous, sample-analyzer monitors produce numerical and/or graphi-
cal information directly.  The non-automatic or Intermittent monitors
employ collection devices and separate laboratory facilities for subse-
quent analysis of the sample.
* The work reported here was performed under Contract No. CPA 22-69-154
  for the Office of Air Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency.
  The statements and conclusions presented are those of the author and
  do not necessarily reflect the views of the Environmental Protection
  Agency.

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                                  - 3 -
            In this  study  of  the  market  for  ambient  air  quality  monitoring,
  we have considered only  instrumentation  required  for  the  following  air  con-
  taminants:   particulates, sulfur  dioxide,  oxidants, carbon monoxide,  hydro-
  carbons,  oxides  of nitrogen,  fluorides,  polynuclear organic  matter,  and
  odors.

            The market for continuous  air  quality monitors  during  the
  decade, while impressive in terms of the total number  of  new instruments
  required, is fragmented  into  many different  analyzers  each with  a rela-
  tively  small market.
                                 TABLE 1

                    SUMMARY:  CONTINUOUS AMBIENT AIR
                   QUALITY LEVEL MONITOR REQUIREMENTS
           Analyzer
 Sulfur Dioxide
 Nitric Oxide
 Nitrogen Dioxide
 Carbon Monoxide
 Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
 Oxidants (Ozone)
 Polynuclear Organic Matter
 Odors
 Automatic Tape Soiling Index
 Particulate
 Fluorides
      Instrumentation Market 1971-1980 (Units)
      Initial        Replacement        Total
       671
       626
       744
       722
       950
       814
       380
       867
       386
       570
       380
         750
         510
         650
         660
         570
         620
         .110
         425
      1421
      1136
      1394
      1382
      1520
      1434
       490
      1292
       386
       570
       380
           Non-automatic air monitors will be a significant part of the
  total agency requirements for ambient monitoring.  These monitors have
  the potential  tc be an effective means for providing a reasonable defini-
  tion of  air quality over urban areas as well as background pollutant levels
  in less  polluted portions of the country.  Requirements in this area in-
  clude:
                                TABLE 2

                   SUMMARY:  NON-AUTOMATIC AMBIENT AIR
                   QUALITY LEVEL MONITOR REQUIREMENTS
                                      Market 1971-1980 (Units)
  Collection Devices

Gas Collector
  Devices
Dust Fall Collector for
  Settleable Particulates
High Volume Sampler for
  Suspended Particulates
Initial
 16838
 6713
  7233
Replacement

   9578

   5643

   5383
Total

 26416

 12356

 12616

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Stationary Source Emission Measurements

          The stationary source emission measurement market that tv«a been
estimated is based on measurements that the author anticipates will be
made by industry and by the control agencies under current air quality
legislation and legislative trends.  The stationary source emission mea-
surement instrumentation estimates have been based on discussions with
representatives of selected industries and on an analysis that has con-
sidered:  legislation, AP codes and the magnitude of the air pollution
problem for a particular industry.

          This market estimate for stationary source emission measurement
instrumentation includes instrumentation for continuous source monitoring
of the following air contaminants:  particulates, sulfur dioxide, oxides
of nitrogen, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and fluorides.  Instrumentation
requirements for these source emission measurements are expected to be a
major fraction of the total source emission instrumentation market during
the decade, although additional markets, which were not considered in
this analysis, can be expected for measuring other air pollutants which
are emitted from stationary sources.

          Instrumentation needs in the stationary source emission measure-
ment area include:

                                TABLE 3

     SUMMARY;  STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION MONITORING REQUIREMENTS

                                Instrumentation  Market  1971-1980 (Units)
    Analyzer                 Initial           Replacement             Total

Particulates                18800                 5120               23920
Sulfur  dioxide                3935                 1075                5010
Carbon  monoxide               2705                 1840                4545
Hydrocarbons                 4755                  825                5580
Nitrogen  oxides               9760                 2110               11870
Fluorides                      505                  165                 670
In addition, a market exists for 500 instruments to remotely measure the
emissions from stationary sources.

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                                  - 5 -
Auto Emission Measurements

          The potential market for auto exhaust emission measurements
assumes the adoption of an annual nation-wide auto exhaust measurement
program.  The agency instrumentation requirements were estimated using
two possible alternate inspection testing procedures.  The first alternate
involves an extrapolation of the state inspection lanes that would be re-
quired to inspect on a once-a-year basis each vehicle in the United States
using the plans and inspection lane requirements of the State of New Jersey
as a model.  The second alternate involves the use of state franchised auto
emission inspection facilities.  Each auto emission  inspection alternative
investigated suggests a major instrumentation requirement.


                                TABLE 4


                    SUMMARY:   AUTO EXHAUST EMISSION
                    INSPECTION TESTING REQUIREMENTS*

                                Instrument Market 1971-1980 (Units)
   Analyzer               Initial           Replacement           Total

Carbon monoxide             4240               2968               7208
Hydrocarbon                 4240               2968               7208
Nitrogen oxides             4240               2544               6784
Particulates                4240                --                4240
          The auto emission measurement market also includes the purchase
of measuring instrumentation by the service area segment for use by
service stations and auto repair facilities to adjust the auto emission
control devices of those automobiles that have been found to be unaccept-
ably high polluters during the state inspection.  This market segment
provides an opportunity for the development of a low cost combined hydro-
carbon-carbon monoxide instrument to measure auto exhaust emissions.   In
the mid to late seventies a nitrogen oxides instrument may also be required
for the same market.
 *  The  estimates  presented  in  Table  4  are based  on  conducting  the  auto
   exhaust emission measurements  in  state inspection  lanes.  The estimate
   of the total auto  emission  measurement market if inspection testing
   is conducted in state  franchised  auto emission inspection facilities
   is given  in Tables 28  and 30.

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                                   - 6 -
                                 TABLE 5


                     SUMMARY:  AUTO EXHAUST EMISSION
                        SERVICE AREA REQUIREMENTS
                                         Market 1971-1980 (Units)
	Analyzer	Initial       Replacement        Total

Hydrocarbon-carbon monoxide       176000           35200          211200
  (combined analyzer)
           A small market also exists for industry purchases of instrumen-
 tation to conduct end-of-the-line emission quality assurance testing.

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                                  - 7 -
Dollar Value of the Market

          The market amounts to nearly one half billion dollars during the
coming decade, some 76% of which represents initial purchases of air  ,
pollution measuring equipment.  Industry will be the major purchaser of
instrumentation accounting for 45% of the market.   The market is heavily
oriented towards stationary source emission measurement instrumentation,.
this area accounting for 51% of the total instrumentation market value.

                                TABLE 6

               ESTIMATE OF AIR POLLUTION INSTRUMENTATION
                     MARKET TOTAL VALUE 1971-1980	

                         (Millions of Dollars)
 Ambient Level

   • Agency (CAM)
   • Agency (Non-Automatic)

 Stationary Source Emission

   • Industrial
   • Agency


 Auto Emissions  "

   • Agency
   • Service Area
   • Industry
                                   Initial
                                   Purchase
 25
J.2
 37
167
 25
192
 47
 87
  3
137
               Replacement
 17
—8.
 25
 46
  5
 51
 19
 18
  1
 38
                Totals
 42
 20
 62
213
 30
243
 66
105
  4
175
                     TOTALS
366
114
                                                                      480

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                                           - 8 -
          Time Frame for the Market

                    Timing appears to be a critical factor in the market with each of
          the three areas of measurement reaching maturity at different periods during
          the decade.   The ambient air quality level monitoring market is expected to
          reach maturity about 1975 and the auto emission measurement instrumentation
          market about  1977, while the stationary source emission measurement in-
          strumentation market will continue to grow throughout the decade.
                                           FIGURE 1
                          TIME FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION  MARKET

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                                  - 9 -
                            3.  INTRODUCTION
          The ability of this Nation to conduct an effective air pollution
control program requires the means to measure the extent and level of air
contaminants.  The Office of Air Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency
has sponsored a project with Esso Research and Engineering Company, under
Contract No. CPA 22-69-154, to define those research and development efforts
required to insure the timely availability of instrumention and analytical
techniques needed to economically meet measurement needs in air pollution
control.  This project has as its primary objective the delineation of a
federal plan for air pollution instrumentation and analytical techniques
research and development during the time period 1972-1975.  A secondary
objective of this project involved a market analysis to assess the oppor-
tunities available and thus the contribution that might be expected from
the private sector in providing measurement instrumentation required to
conduct an effective air pollution control effort.  This report presents a
study of the markets for air pollution measurement instrumentation for the
time period 1971--1980.  The study has been based on an analysis of cur-
rent legislation, control plans, and recent trends in an effort to define
the potential needs in the air pollution measurement area.  It is recog-
nized that these needs may be abruptly influenced by decisions of key
individuals who control supporting resources or determine policies that
affect their application.


Previous Studies OP. the Market

          Several studies have already been made of the market for air
pollution measurement instrumentation.  Most of these studies have been
conducted for individual clients or as multi-client studies and are not
available to the general public.  These private studies include:
      Organization Making the Study                Date of Study

      Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison                1967, 1969
      (Management Consultants)
      200 Park Avenue
      New York, N.Y.  10017
      Attn:  Andrew Kazarinoff

      Frost & Sullivan                                Yearly
      179 Broadway
      New York, N.Y.  10007"
      Attn:  Joseph Levy

      Predicasts, Inc.                                 1968
      10550 Park Lane
      University Circle
      Cleveland, Ohio  44106
      Attn:  Roy Ginsburg

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                                 - 10 -
      Arthur D. Little, Inc.
      Acorn Park
      Cambridge, Mass.  02140
      Attn:  Heinz Beutner
                              197Q
      Stanford Research Institute*
      Menlo Park, California
                              1970
          There has been very little information published in the open
literature concerning the magnitude of the market for air pollution
measurement instrumentation.  The information that has appeared includes:

             Information on the Market for Air Pollution
           Instrumentation Appearing in the Open Literature
        Source
       Date
          Prediction
Optical Spectra
March 1970, p. 17
Wall Street Transcript   13 October 1969
Wall Street Transcript   1 December 1969
Chemical & Engineering
News
19 August 1968,
p. 20
Air pollution measurement equip-
ment sales of $50 M in 1975

a) 50% per year growth rate for
   air pollution measurement
   equipment between 1970-79

b) Expenditure by government
   agencies on air pollution
   measurement equipment of
   $20 M in 1972

Auto pollution measurement
equipment sales in N. America
of $4 M in 1969 and $10 M in
1970

1969 expenditure for air and
solid waste control Instruments
of $8 M by industry and $16 M
by government
  Instrument market reported as part of the Electronic Industry Survey.

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                                 - 11 -

              4.  AMBIENT AIR QUALITY LEVEL MEASUREMENTS
          Ambient air quality is the quality of the air that we all
breathe.  The air quality level is the result of the emission of pollu-
tants from a wide variety of discrete stationary and mobile
sources of emissions, superimposed upon a background level which includes
major emissions of some of these same pollutants from natural sources.
Wide variations in the ambient air quality level exist in different
regions of the Nation as a result of differing local concentrations of
discrete sources and the presence of geographical formations and climato-
logical conditions which enhance or hinder the dispersive forces of the
atmosphere.  This section of the report is concerned with the type and
quantity of instrumentation which will be required to measure the ambient
air quality level throughout the United States.
Characteristics of the Market

          The market for instrumentation to measure the ambient air
quality level is an existing market.  For some specific air pollution
agents, such as S02, a portion of the initial purchase market has
already been met, but by far the major purchases in this market seqment
will be made during the next few years.  In arriving at the market
estimate four parameters have been analyzed:

          (1) Legal basis for measurement requirements
          (2) Users of instrumentation
          (3) Pollutants requiring measurement
          (A) Instrumentation requirements


          Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements:  The Clean Air
Amendments of 1970*, like previous federal legislation, requires the
states to implement plans to achieve established air quality standards.
In some urban regions of the Nation, existing air pollutant levels are
still above the desired air quality standards and it is necessary to
monitor the ambient air quality level to determine the progress of the
implementation plan in achieving clean air and to measure trends in air
quality.

          The 1970 Amendments provide federal funds to match air pollution
control agency expenditures for establishing, improving and maintaining
programs  for implementation of national air quality standards (lla).   The
state implementation plan must include provisions for establishment and
operation of appropriate devices necessary to monitor data on ambient air
quality (lib).   The author interprets these sections of the amendments as
encouraging and financially supporting ambient level measurements.

          Historically, the federal government and the states have long
been active in air quality measurement—the federal program having been
initiated in 1953 as the National Air Sampling Network (NASN) and state
programs  having been initiated prior to 1961 in California, Maryland,
Massachusetts,  Texas, New York and Washington.
* The "Clean Air Amendments of 1970"—P.L. 91-604 (December 1970) will
  be referred to hereafter as the 1970 Amendments.

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                                  -  12  -
          The establishment of state implementation plans, first required
by the Air Quality Act of 1967, has provided emergency measures to protect
the health and welfare of the populace during periods of acute air pollu-
tion caused by adverse climatological factors—the so-called air pollution
episodes.  Such emergency measures have required a real-time measurement
capability to enable swift and effective measures to reduce air pollution
when levels dangerous to health occur.

          Users of Instrumentation;  Ambient air quality measurement  is
predominantly a government responsibility, shared between the federal,
state and local levels.  Industry has offered some market for ambient air
quality measurement during the latter half of the 1960's, partly because
of regulations by local air pollution control agencies that required  a
specified number of ambient monitors around a new plant site.
Pae trend in new legislation appears to be toward stricter enforcement
and measurement of industrial emission at the industrial sources and this,
in the author's opinion, should preclude any sizeable investment by indus-
try in ambient air quality measurement instruments.  The industrial market
for ambitut air quality level measurement instrumentation has been assumed
negligible for the remainder of the decade.*

          Pollutants Requiring Measurement:  The reason for controls  on
the emission of pollution agents from various discrete sources, whether
they be stationary or mobile, is to achieve an acceptable level of air
quality for a particular air pollutant.  One can, therefore, expect that
it will be necessary to measure the ambient air quality level for all
air pollution agents or combinations of agents which have been identified
as injurious to health and welfare.  The air pollution agents identified
at this time include

          Class I:   Particulates (Total mass and fine particu.late)
                     Sulfur oxides (S02, 803 and H2S04 mist)
                     Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
                     Carbon monoxide
                     Oxidants (including ozone)
                     Oxides of nitrogen (N02, NO)
                     Lead
                     Odors (including sulfurous odors, amines, and or-
                             ganic acids)
                     Polynuclear organic matter
                     Fluorides
* Contrary views on the Industrial market for ambient air quality level
  measurement Instrumentation have been put forth.  These views reflect
  a sharp increase in industry's utilization of ambient air monitors to
  assess the plant's contribution to the air quality of the community.
  If these views are borne out the quantity of ambient air quality monitors
  required during the decade could be twice that estimated in this report.
  The reader is referred to the article on Pollution Measurement Instrumenta-
  tion in the February 15, 1971 issue of Chemical and Engineering News for
  one discussion of these differences.

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                                  -  13  -
          Class II:  Arsenic
                     Chlorine gas
                     Hydrogen chloride
                     Copper
                     Manganese
                     Nickel
                     Vanadium
                     Zinc
                     Barium
                     Boron
                     Chromium
                     Selenium
                     Pesticides
                     Radioactive substances
                     Asbestos
                     Beryllium
                     Cadmium
                     Mercury

The listing of pollution agents has been divided into two classes only as
a matter of convenience for subsequent analysis of the instrumentation
market.  The pollution agents in Class I include those agents whose
presence in the ambient air is widespread through the United States.
These agents are accordingly expected to be widely measured through the
federal, state and local monitoring networks.

          The pollution agents in Class II, while of concern to health and
welfare—in fact the last four named agents are regarded as hazardous
materials—normally are associated with local deteriorations of air
Duality and will be monitored on a limited basis.  An estimate of the
market for instrumentation to measure the Class II pollution agents has
not been made for this analysis.

          Instrumentation Requirements;  The measurement of ambient air
quality levels will require two distinct types of measuring instrumentation.
Continuous measuring instrumentation will be required to provide real-time
information on the concentration level of specific pollution agents so that
control agencies can implement  their emergency action plans when the  air
quality level approaches a predetermined level judged particularly danger-
ous to health.

          Continuous air monitoring instrumentation for this application
has been identified with providing real-time information, both  these
designations having been responsible for past misconceptions of the needs
in this area of measurement.  Real-time information in this connotation
refers to information that is available sufficiently fast to provide  timely
guidance for action by control  agencies.  For all pollution agents, informa-
tion is most likely not needed  in less than five minutes-, for nitrogen oxides,

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                                  - 14 -
oxidants, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxides, it should probably not lag
behind the actual air quality level by more than 10 or 15 minutes.  In
this connotation, continuous air monitoring refers to periodic repeti-
tions of the measurement at intervals not to exceed the time period in
which the information provided by the measurement can be utilized.

          Measurements will also be required to provide information to
determine the trend in ambient air quality level for each pollutant.
This type of instrumentation will supplement the continuous air monitoring
instruments and will enable air quality levels to be economically moni-
tored, even in those areas currently at or within acceptable standard
levels.  This type of instrumentation will often operate at extremely low
levels of ambient air pollutants and will attain the required sensi-
tivity by integrating the sample over a period of time.  The integrated
sample will periodically be returned to a laboratory for analysis as is
currently done with gaseous bubber collection systems and the Hi-Vol
suspended particulate collectors.

          The development of new and improved instruments that can follow
the  trend in pollution concentration could radically change the future
method of trend measurements.  It may be possible to obtain instruments
that can be read in the field and reset for operation during a subsequent
time period.  It is not expected that development of a continuous monitor-
ing  instrument with the requisite sensitivity to be capable of measure-
ment at trend levels would be a major factor in this market as the need
for  continuous information in regions where trend measurement will be
widely applied is not apparent.

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                                  -  15  -
Method Used to
Estimate the Market
          This section of the report describes the method used to estimate
the market for ambient air quality level measurement instrumentation.  The
estimates for continuous air monitoring instruments and for the trend in-
dicating instruments will be described separately.


     Continuous Air Monitoring Instruments (CAM)

          The market for continuous air monitoring stations was estimated
by considering parameters which might be involved in determining the
number of stations required to adequately measure the air quality level in
a given control region—a station is a complex containing one or more
instruments and associated hardware.  Parameters investigated included:
population of the region; value added by manufacturing as a measure of
industrial activity; area of the region; population density; number of
cities in the region with population exceeding a given level; number of
cities in the region with value added by manufacturing exceeding a given
level; and expenditures by local governments for hospital and health as
an indication of concern for public health.

          Historical data and future plan?  J~ u' for state and local air pollu-
tion control agencies in the Middle Atlantic States and in California
were analyzed.  Little correlation was found between the number of
continuous air monitoring stations and those factors related to geographi-
cal area, population density, or industrial concentration.  As the geo-
graphical size of the regions increased, a correlation with total popu-
lation was evident.

                              TABLE 7

            CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATION REQUIREMENTS^
                                                Population     Stations per
   Region        State     Local*     Total      M (1960)      M Population

N.Y. (State)      50         10        60          16.8             3.6
N.J. (State)      22         —        22           6.0             3.7
Pa. (State)       25         17        42          11.3             3.7
Cal. (State)      15         35        50          15.9             3.1
* Local category includes monitoring stations operated under the directions
  of municipal governments.
(1)  Continuous air quality measurement instrumentation requirements for
    these  regions has been based partly on references 13 to 20.

-------
                                 - 16 -
          For the purposes of this analysis a state and local govern-
mental control agency requirement of 3.7 CAM stations per million
population has been used for a total of 750 installed stations during
the decade.  The federal network which will supplement this network has
been estimated at 175 stations^3).

          Continuous air monitoring stations have the responsibility for
monitoring ambient air quality levels and it has been assumed that each
station would have instrumentation to measure the nine widespread
pollutants:  particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbons, oxidants, carbon
monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, polynuclear organic matter, lead and odors.
Odor instrumentation is expected to consist of instruments sensitive to
a particular chemical species characteristic of local odor problems,
e.g., mercaptans, hydrogen sulfide, amines, or acrolein.  Oxides of
nitrogen measurement will likely continue to require two distinct
measurements, one for nitrogen dioxide (N02) and the other for nitric
oxide (NO) .  The probability of each station in the state and local
governmental networks installing instrumentation to measure each
pollutant, is assumed to be unity for the first six named pollutants
and somewhat lower for the remaining three.  The federal government
operated CAM stations are assumed to measure all named pollutants.
      Trend Indication Instrumentation

           Trend indication instrumentation has been referred to in the past
 by various names:  manual monitoring, mechanized non-automatic devices and
 simple instrumentation.  All of these designations are adequate to describe
 certain devices which are normally included in trend indicator networks
 although a particular device may not be adequately described by a single
 designation.  For the  purpose of this analysis trend indicator instruments
 are intermittently operated collection devices which require separate.
 laboratory facilities for analysis of the sample.

           A trend indicator air quality monitoring station can be expected
 to consist of static and mechanized collection devices.  Static devices
 will include sulfation rate collectors for sulfur dJoxide and dustfall
 buckets to measure settleable particulate.  The mechanized collection
 devices will include bubblers or equivalent collectors for the gaseous
 pollutants covered by national air quality standards and hi vol samplers
 for the determination of suspended particulates.

           The number of trend indication instrumentation Installations is
 baaed on "publiahed" estimates by the National Air Pollution Control
 Administration (now EPA) of the number of sampling stations required In
 order to provide a reasonable definition of the air quality over urban
 areas, as well as background pollutant levels in less-affected portions
 of the country.  EPA has estimated a need for 10,000 sampling stations,

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                                 - 17  -
of which 8,000 would be employed in the 231 standard metropolitan
statistical areas (la,5a).  The federal network would account for
approximately 1,000 stations.  Assuming that nearly 10% of the total
station requirement will be met by continuous air monitoring stations,
the required number of trend indicator stations has been placed at
9,000 units, of which nearly 1,000 would be used in the federal
network.

     Replacement Market

          The estimated replacement market for ambient air quality level
monitoring instrumentation has been based on an expected life for this
type of instrumentation.  It has been assumed that continuous air quality
level monitors will be replaced between years 5 and 10 following their
purchase, i.e., an effective life cycle or 7 or 8 years for the instruments.
Lacking additional information we have further assumed a cumulative
replacement between years 5 and 10, as shown in Table  8.   Replace-
ment market has been estimated by applying this cumulative replacement
rate to the initial instrument purchases.
                                 TABLE 8
                   REPLACEMENT MARKET ASSUMPTIONS FOR
          AMBIENT AIR QUALITY LEVEL MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
                   Year Since             Cumulative Replacement
           Installation of Instrument     	%	

                       5                             0
                       6                            30
                       7                            50
                       8                            60
                       9                            70
                      10                            90

 The cost of this replacement program has been compared with historical
 trends which indicate that as an agency matures the percentage of its total
 operating budget which is spent on total  equipment   is perhaps no more than 3%
 Information to support this value is given in Figure 2, which is based on
 a limited sample of information obtained from the records of the Control
 Agency Development Division, National Air Pollution Control Administration (now EPA)
 Based on an estimated expenditure no greater than 3% of total budget for
 instrumentation and assuming that very shortly into the decade we will
 achieve an expenditure for air pollution control of 50c per capita by con-
 trol agencies, we estimate that agency funding available for replacement and
 upgrading of ambient_level measurement instrumentation will amount to an
 average of about $3 M a year in the period of 1974-1980.

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                                  - 18 -
                                 FIGURE 2
                 EXPENDITURES BY CONTROL AGENCIES ON EQUIPMENT*
    *J  C
    O  0)
    H  e
       ex
    ^•H
    O  O
    c  cr
    o w
    to
    <  ^
       o
    0)  K
    co D
    ro  a-i
    u  -H
    c  -r
    V  C
    •)  O
    V-i  C.
    4)  X
    ft,  u;
60
        iv
10
\.
                                                         I
                       2468


                        Years  Since Inception of Agency
                                                        10
      Hanket  Estimates



           This  section of the report  presents  the estimated market  for

 ambient  air  quality level monitoring  instrumentation during the  period

 1971-1980.   Tables  9 to 13 present  the  basis and  the estimate for the

 continuous air  quality monitor market and  Tables  14  and  15  present

 similar  data for  trend indication instrumentation.
*Data for this graph supplied by the Control Agency Development  Division,

 National Air Pollution Control Administration (now EPA).

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                                   - 19 -

                                     Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
                                TABLE 9
                    CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
                  Estimate of lumber of Stations Required
State & Local Station Requirement

Basis:  3.7 stations per 1 million population (1960)  (a)

        U.S. population (1970) 206 million  (b)

Estimate of total no. of stations required:

        3.7 x 206 = 762

Federal Station Requirement

Basis:  150-200 Stations  (c)

Total Station Requirement Estimate Used for this Analysis

State & Local Stations -  775

Federal Stations       -  175

                          950


Sources:  (a)  This study - Table  7

          (b)  Survey of Current Business, U.S. Dept. Commerce, August 1970.

          (c)  Reference la

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                                 - 20 -


                                     Ambient  Air  Quality Level Monitoring
                                 TABLE 10

                    CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS

     Instrumentation Currently Installed (Estimates  for June 1970)  (a)


                                   State & Local
	Analyzer	        Agencies          Federal       Total

Sulfur Dioxide                           235              44            279

Nitric Oxide                             117              17            134

Nitrogen Dioxide                         189              17            206

Carbon Monoxide                          218              10            228

Non-Methane Hydrocarbon                  —               —            (Z)

Oxidan'-.::                                 122              14            136

Polynuclear Organic Matter               —               —            (Z)

Odors  (b)                                83               —            83

Automatic Tape Soiling Index            367              7             374

I'articulate Total Mass                   --               —            (Z)

Fluorides                                --               --            (z)

(a) Source:  Reference 2, p.  6.

(b) Odor instruments  listed above include only H S analyzers.

(Z) Less than 25 instruments are estimated to be  in  use.

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                                 - 21 -


                                     Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring

                                TABLE 11
                     CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING  STATIONS

     Replacement Market for Continuous Air Monitoring  Instrumentation
          Analyzer
Sulfur Dioxide

Nitric Oxide

Nitrogen Dioxide


Carbon Monoxide

Non-Methane Hydrocarbon

Oxidants (ozone)

Polynuclear Organic Matter

Odors

Automatic Tape Soiling Index

Particulate Total Mass

Fluorides
  Estimated Date of     Estimated Replacement
Installation of 95%        Market 1971-80
of Initial Purchases  (% of Initial Purchases)
         1974

         1974

         1974

         1974

         1974

         1974

         1974

         1975-6

         1974

         1978

         1977
70

60

60

60

60

60

30

40

*

0

0
* Assumes automatic tape soiling index analyzers will be  replaced  by
  particulate total mass analyzers.

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                                 - 22 -


                                     Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring

                            TABLE 12
                     CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS

                Typical Station Instrumentation Requirement
                                              Assumed Parameters for
                                                 Market Analyzers
                              No. of
                             Instruments
	Analyzer	 per Stz

Sulfur Dioxide  (SO )              1

Nitric Oxide  (NO)                 1

Nitrogen Dioxide  (N02)            1

Carbon Monoxide  (CO)              1

:ion-Me thane Hydrocarbon           1

Oxidants (a)                      1

Polynuclear Organic Matter       1

Odors (b)                         2

Automatic Tape  Soiling Index      1

Particulate Total Mass (c)        1

Fluorides                        1
 (a) Ozone measuring  instruments are assumed  to replace oxidant analyzers
    during market  study period.

 (b) Odor  instruments will measure  specific chemical  species  common  to
    Local odor  emissions.

 (c) Instrumentation  to determine total mass  of particulate in ambient
    air are assumed  to replace automatic  tape soiling index  analyzers
    during market  study period.
Probability
of Station
Having Analysis
1
0.8
1
1
1
1
0,4
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.4
Instrument Cost*
(per Unit)
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
750
3000
4000
 *  The  reader  is  referred  to Section 7,  beginning on page 82 ,  for a dis-
    cussion of probable instrumentation  cost.

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                                          - 23 -
                                             Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 13
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Estimate
of Instrumentation Purchases 1971-80
Instruments
Required
Analyzer (a)
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
Oxidants (ozone)
Polynuclear Organic Matter
Odors
Automatic Tape Soiling Index
Particulate Total Mass
Fluorides
(a) Source: This study - Table
(b) Source: This study - Table
950
760
950
950
950
950
380
950
760
570
380
9.
10
Instruments
Currently
Installed Initial
(b) Purchases
279 671
134 626
206 744
228 722
950
136 814
380
83 867
,374 . 386
570
380


Replacements
Market Total
(c) Purchases
750 1421
510 1136
650 1394
660 1382
570 1520
620 1434
110 490
425 1292
386
570
380


(c)  Replacement market assumes complete replacement of  currently  installed  instruments
    and fractional replacement of initial purchases.

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                                 -  24  -
                                   Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring

                               TABLE 14
                    TREND INDICATION INSTRUMENTATION
Total Station Requirement Estimate(a);

          Federal stations         - 1000
          State and Local stations - 8000

Probable Station Instrument Components;
    Collection Device
Gas Collection Devices (b)

Dust Fall Collector for
 Settleable Particulates

High Volume Sampler for
 Suspended Particulates
           Probability
No. per    of Station
Station   Having Device
    2

    1
1

1
 Assumed Cost *
      For
Market Analysis
   (per unit)

     $500

       50


      500
(a) Source: Reference 1 - p. 75.

(b) Assumes a device for collecting (and analyzing)  24  hour  samples
    will be required for two gaseous pollutants,  probably  SO  and NO,
                                                            '*-        A
*Tbe reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
 discussion of probable instrumentation costs.

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                                 - 25 -
                                   Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring

                               TABLE 15
                    TREND INDICATION INSTRUMENTATION
Collection Devices Currently Installed;
 Collection Device
Gas Collection
  Devices
Dustfall Collector

High-Volume Sampler
                                      No. of Devices Installed
                                       As of June  1969(a)
Federal
435
270
293
State & Local
727
2017
1474
Total
1162
2287
1767
Market Estimate:  1970-80 (Units)
 Collection Device
Devices   Currently   Initial   Replace-  Total
Required  Installed  Purchases  merits (b)  Market
Gas Collection
Devices
Dustfall Collector
High-Volume Sampler

18,000
9,000
9,000

1162
2287
1767

16,838
6,713
7,233

9578
5643
5383

26,416
12,356
12,616
(a) Source: Reference 2,  p- 6.
Cb) Replacements based on complete replacement of currently installed
    devices and 50% replacement of new purchases.
(cJ> Gas collection devices currently installed to obtain 24 hour samples
    of  S02, N02,  and oxidants.

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   - 26 -
BLANK PAGE

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                                   - 27 -
              5.  STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION MEASUREMENTS
          Stationary sources of air pollution consist of discrete sources
of air pollution that are recognized as significant contributors to the
deterioration of local and regional air quality.  This section of the
report is concerned with the type and quantity of instrumentation which
will be required to measure the emissions from these sources at the point
of emission.
Characteristics of the Market

          The market for stationary source emission measurement instrumenta-
tion is an emerging market, i.e., the need for such instrumentation is only
beginning to be appreciated.  This emergent nature of the market makes the
prediction of the market size during the decade of the 1970's a difficult
and uncertain undertaking.  The market estimated in this report has required
a fair number of assumptions which will be discussed in the following sec-
tions.  In arriving at the market estimate, four parameters have been
analyzed:

          (1) Legal basis for measurement requirements
          (2) Industries potentially affected
          (3) User of instrumentation
          (4) Pollutants requiring measurement

          Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements;  The 1970 Amendments
speed  up the air quality standard setting procedure by requiring the
designation of National Ambient Air Quality Standards by the Federal govern-
ment.  The states have the responsibility for establishing the implementation
plans to meet these standards.  The 1970 Amendments require that the state
implementation plan provide requirements for installation of equipment by
owners of stationary sources to monitor emissions from such sources and for
periodic reports on the nature and amounts of such emissions(lie).  This pro-
vision of the 1970 Amendments suggests an increasing market for instrumenta-
tion to be used by the owner or operator of the stationary source to monitor
his own emissions.

          The 1970 Amendments also provides for New Source Performance
Standards.  The new source performance standards are designed to insure that
new stationary sources are operated so as to reduce emissions to the minimum
(llf).  The performance standards would be applied to new sources of air
pollution in specific industries (the industries affected will be discussed
in a later section).  The pollutants considered in this analysis are those
expected to be covered by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.  The
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency may for the purpose

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                                  - 28 -
of implementing the standards of performance for new stationary sources
or to enable him to determine whether such source is in compliance with
the new source performance standards require the owner or operator of
any emission source to install, use and maintain monitoring equipment
or methods and sample such emissions at such intervals, and in such a
manner as the Administrator shall prescribe (lid).

          The 1970 Amendments also establishes emission standards for
hazardous agents.  These hazardous agents are expected to include asbestos,
beryllium, cadmium and mercury  (6c).  This analysis does not consider the
potential market for instrumentation that may be used for measurement of
these hazardous agents (llg).

          The 1970 Amendments also provide for a procedure under which the
States shall submit a plan which establishes standards for existing sources
for those air pollutants for which air quality criteria have not been
issued or which is not included under national air quality standards or
hazardous pollutants but to which a standard of performance would apply
if such existing source were a new source (lie).
          Users of  Instrumentation;  The users  of  stationary  source measure-
ment instrumentation  consist of  two major groups:   control  agencies and
pollutant emitters.   The  control agencies require  stationary  source measure-
ment instruments  to carry out  their responsibility to periodically monitor
stationary sources  to determine  if emissions  comply with  the  established
emission standards.   Instrumentation  for the application should be portable
and be able  to be rapidly installed at the  source.

          The owners  or operators of emission sources will  require instru-
ments to fulfill  their responsibility  to install and use  monitoring equip-
ment as required  by state implementation plans.    It is expected that this
monitoring requirement will be extended to  include  both eixsting sources
(lid) in industries covered by new source performance standards and new
sources covered by  the Federal new source performance standards (lie).
State requirements  for industry  to install  such monitoring  instrumentation
will reduce  the need  for  extensive monitoring of source •missions by control
agency inspectors,  monitoring which would otherwise by required to Insure
that source  emissions were being maintained at standard levels.  Instrumen-
tation for this monitoring will  not be required in  all cases; in some
instances, periodic sampling of  the effluent, followed by laboratory analysis
of the sample, will suffice for  obtaining a record  of emissions.  It is
expected, however,  that Industry will  more  than be  able to  justify the cost
of continuous monitoring  instruments by savings in  sampling and laboratory
analysis time.  Continuous monitoring  Instrumentation will  also double as
a means of providing  information to adjust  and control the  emission control
technology that will  be Installed to reduce emissions.

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                                 - 29 -
          Industries Potentially Affected;  Industry sources  expected
to be subject  to the provisions of the new sources performance standards
in the 1970 Amendment include:*

         Cement manufacturing
         Coal cleaning operations
         Coke byproduct manufacturing
         Cotton ginning
         Ferro alloy plants
         Grain milling and handling operations
         Gray Iron  foundries
         Iron and steel operations
         Nitric acid manufacturing
         Nonfetrous metallurgical operations  (e.g., aluminum  reduction,
           copper,  lead and zinc smelting)
         Petroleum  refining
         Phosphate  fertilizer manufacturing
         Phosphoric acid manufacturing
         Pulp and paper operations
         Rendering  plants  (animal matter)
         Sulfuric acid manufacturing
         Soap and detergent manufacturing
         Municipal  incinerators
         Steam electric power plants
         Lime manufacturing operations
         Petroleum  storage facilities
         Asphalt batching plants
         Other chemical plants
         Carbon black manufacturing
         Industrial boilers
         Commercial-institutional heating plants
         Residential heating plants
         Other incinerators

          Several additional industry sources which were not included in
this market analysis are also being considered for new source performance
standards.   These include:

          Animal feed defluorination plants
          Chlorine and caustic plants
          Brass  and bronze  refining
          Phosphorus reduction plants
          Petrochemical plants
          Paint  and varnish plants
          Graphic arts industry
* Some of these industry sources have been suggested for new source
  performance standards by the administration (6d),  while additional
  sources have been assumed for this analysis.

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                                 - 30 -
          Pollutants Requiring Measurement;  The pollutants that may
require measurement fall into three groups.  The first group includes
those pollutants for which national ambient Air Quality standards have
been issued or that the author assumes will be issued during the decade.
For these pollutants, the states will establish as part of their
implementation plan emission limitations on source emissions for all
existing facilities and the federal government will specify emission
limitations for new sources as part of the new source performance
standards for selected industries.  For this analysis these pollutants
are assumed to be:

          Total suspended particulates
          Sulfur dioxide
          Non-CH.  hydrocarbons
          Carbon monoxide
          Polynuclear organic matter
          Fluorides
          Lead
          Odors
          Nitrogen dioxide

Nitric oxide although not covered under national ambient air quality
standards will be considered under this group for analysis of the market
for stationary source emission measurement instrumentation.  Nitric oxide
is the prevalent form of the oxides of nitrogen from many stationary
sources and after leaving the stack is oxidized further to nitrogen
dioxide which is measured in the ambient atmosphere.

          The second group of pollutants are those pollutants being
considered for coverage by hazardous agent emission standards.  These
include:

          Asbestos
          Mercury
          Beryllium
          Cadmium

          The third group of pollutants includes those air pollutants
not presently covered or expected to be covered by national ambient
air quality standards or defined as hazardous agents but which could be
designated for new source performance standards or as hazardous agents.
These include:

          Arsenic
          Chrlorine gas
          Hydrogen chloride
          Copper
          Manganese
          Nickel
          Vanadium
          Zinc

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                                 - 31 -
          Barium
          Boron
          Chromium
          Selenium
          Pesticides
          Radioactive substances


Method Used to Estimate the Market

          In estimating the market for stationary source emission measure-
ment instrumentation, the lack of historical data on which to base an
extrapolation of future trends has necessitated many assumptions concerning
future measurement application.  This section of the report discusses the
assumptions that have been made in arriving at the market estimate for
stationary source emission measurements.

          Indus try Requirements;  The assumptions required in estimating
the market for stationary source emission measurement do not involve what
pollutants are to be measured or which emitters potentially will be re-
quired to make measurements but involves rather what degree of measurement
will be required.  In this analysis,  measurement is assumed to be required
only after emission control mechanisms are installed.  This assumption is
based upon Che premise that the prime value of the measurement instru-
mentation will be to obtain information either to assist in the operation
of the control equipment and/or to determine if the control equipment is
performing in a manner to enable the  emission standards to be met.

          The procedure followed in making the assessment of the stationary
source emission market began with the assembly of an inventory of station-
ary sources and industry growth rate information.  This inventory has been
based primarily on previously issued federal government documents,
particularly "The Cost of Clean Air,  2nd Report" (8) and the "National
Emissions Standards Study" (9).  Additional information has been obtained
from the "Inventory Data on Specific Types of Emission Sources" prepared for
Esso Research and Engineering Company by the management consultant firm of
Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison.  The inventory of stationary sources is
presented in Table 16 and includes, when information has been available, a
listing of the individual units at a given source.  In many cases only
information on the number of plant sites is available and our use of plant
sites, in these instances, rather than operating units is expected to
result in an underevaluation of the total market for stationary source
measurement instrumentation.

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                                  -  32  -
          Several potential air pollutant emission sources have not been
includes in the listing of sources, notably electric arc furnaces, induc-
tion furnaces, crucibles and reverberatory furnaces located in the foundry
industry.  These sources and others which may be considered by EPA for
emission control by means of the New Source Performance Standards
represent a potential additional market for instrumentation which is not
included in this report.

           The source inventory and industry growth rate data were then
used to prepare Table 17, an estimate of both the present number of
sources and the additional new sources expected during the decade.  New
sources, in this connotation, represent a generic class of facilities that
can lead to an increase in the total number of point sources of pollution
and includes new plants as well as major capacity increases at current
plants.  The number of new facilities has been estimated using published
estimates of the anticipated industry growth during the seventies.  This
published information is available as projected industry capacity increases
and requires a judgement as to future plant size to arrive at the desired
number of new pollution sources.  While no specific industry information
was available for this analysis regarding future plant size trends, the
assumption was made that plant sizes would increase, resulting in fewer
new sources at which measurements would be required.

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   - 33 -
BLANK PAGE

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                                              TABLE 16
Cement Kilns
Petroleum Refineries(g)
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel Industry
  Gray Iron (Cupolas)
  Steel(e)
  Pig-iron (f)
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Co t ton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
INVENTORY OF STATIONARY SOURCES AND INDUSTRY
GROWTH RATES
Historical Data
No. of
Sources
,ng Units (d) 1,751
180
) 22k
113
24
19
1,929
909
225
30
667
65
4,448
51
618
11,147
72
259
350
73
920
1,069
213
135

Year
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1967
1968
1968
1968
1968
1967
1967
1968
1967
1963
1968
1968
1968
1967
1967
1968
1968
1967
1967

Reference
c
b
b
b
b
b
c
c
c
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
a
                                                                                         Industry
                                                                                      Growth-Rate  (i)
                                                                                         1970-80
 80
 50
 30
 80

 30
 15

 45
 45
 45
 35
100
 20
N.A.
 20

 15
 15
100

 65
 65
 65
N.A.
  0
 45

-------
                                         TABLE. 16  CONTINUED

                     INVENTORY OF STATIONARY SOURCES AND INDUSTRY GROWTH RATES

                                                                                        Industry
                                         	Historical Data	        Growth-Rate ( b)
                                         No. of                                         1970-80
                                         Sources        Year        Reference        	%	
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching                          1,500         1967             a
Aluminum                                     24         1968             b                  90
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper                                     20         1967             b
  Lead and Zinc                              76         1967             b
Petroleum Storage                        29,664         1968             a


Group III

Industrial Boilers                      307,000         1967             a
Commercial-Institutional Heating
  Plants                                999,000         1967             a
Residential Heating Plants           58,000,000         1967             a                                     '
Municipal Incinerators                      465         1967             c                                     ^
Other Incinerators(h)                    13,300         1968             c                                     i


(N.A.) - Information not available.
(a)  "The Cost of Clean Air" 2nd Rept. of the Secretary DHEW, Senate Doct. 91-65, April 27,  1970.
(b)  "National Emissions Standards Study," Senate Doct. 91-63, April 27, 1970.
(c)  Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison.  "Inventory Data on Specific Types  of Emission Sources,"  March 1969.
(d)  Coal and/or oil steam generating units, 294 of which have a generating capacity of 200  MW or  greater.
(e)  Includes 62 Basic Oxygen Furnaces and 544 open hearths and 303 electric arc  furnaces.
(£)  Totals include blast furnaces only.
(g)  These petroleum refining sources include 118 catalytic crackers.
(h)  Includes incinerators in schools containing over 1400 pupils and in apartment houses containing
       over 100 dwelling units.
(i)  The industry growth rate is given as a percentage increase in the production capacity and is
       taken from the "National Emissions Standards Study," Senate Doct. 91-63, April  27, 1970,  page 82,
       unless otherwise noted.

-------
                                    -  36 -

                                    TABLE 17

                ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF  STATIONARY SOURCES
                                                 Estimated
                                              Present Sources
                                                    1970
                   Estimated
                  New Sources
                    1970-80
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron (Cupolas)
  Steel
  Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
    1750
     300
     220
     120
      41
    .1800
     900
     225
180 (a)
 60
 40
 60
 10
400
200
 75
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering Plants
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
      32
     700
      68
    4000
      54

     700
   11500
      80

     235
     350
      75
     900
    1050
     213
     135
    1500
      25

      20
      75
   30000
  5
400
 10
  0
 10

 90
(b)
 50

120
200
 40
(b)
(b)
 80
 50

 20

(b)
(b)
(b)
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators(c)
  300000
 1000000
60000000
     495
   14000
(b)
(b)
(b)
450
(b)
 (a) Estimated from 138 gigawatt increase in fossil fueled steam electric power
     generating capacity during the decade and an average generating unit size of
     750 MW.  Data from Tables 38 and 46 from reference No. 10.
    No estimate has been made for the number of new sourro.s.

-------
                                 - 37 -
          The next step in the assessment of the stationary source
measurement instrumentation market required a determination of which
industries were likely to have to measure their emissions.  As the
policy regarding measurements at the source of emissions has yet to be
formulated, we were required to make a judgement of those industries
which are likely candidates for stationary source measurement instrumentation•

          In making these judgements we have assembled data on the emissions
of selected pollutants for the industries previously listed and on the
number of specific source locations in each industry.  We then calculated
for each source and pollutant the percentage of the total U-S. stationary
source emission of a given pollutant that is due to the industry as a
whole and the average emission of the pollutant per source.  The information
on industry emissions was obtained from the "National Emission Standards
Study"(9) and "The Cost of Clean Air, 2nd Report"(8).  Much of the
information on industry emissions is not yet available and has resulted
in many blank entries in Table 17.  Once detailed information on industry
emissions is available from current and planned EPA studies, additional
industries may be candidates for routine monitoring of stationary source
emissions.

          The method used provides an indicator of both the national
and local air quality deterioration which would be associated with
uncontrolled emissions.  From the value of these parameters potential
candidate industries for routine emission monitoring were selected.
Any source-pollutant combinations that represented a high local emission
rate or high national total emissions were judged candidates for routine
measurement.  This resulted in selecting as candidates for measurement
instrumentation only a relatively small fraction of the sources and
pollutant combinations that are likely to be controlled.  Tables 18-A
through 18r-E present a tabulation of Industry emissions, average
emissions per source, and our estimate of the candidates for measurement
for the six pollutants considered in the stationary source measurement
instrumentation market analysis.

-------
                                                  TABLE 18-A
                                           INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
 PARTICULATES
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
As % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel    ^
  Pig-Iron |
   5530
    870
     85
    630

     60
     84

    190
   1700
       26.7
        4.2
        0.4
        3.0

        0.3
        0.4
        0.9
        8.2
      17.0Cb)
       4.9
       0.4
       5.6

       2.5
       4.4

       0.1
      12.3tc)
     Yes
     Yes
     Yes
     Yes

     Yes
     Yes

     Yes
     Yes
     Yes
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap end Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
    103
    160
     94
     30
    275
   1122
     50
    259
        0.5
        0.8
        0.4
        0.1
        1.3
        5.4
        0.2
        1.2
     60
    450
        0.3
        2.1
       3.4
       0.2
       1.4
       0.01
       5.4
       0.1
       0.7
       0.7
                                            0.1
       0.1
       3.3
     Yes
     No
     Yes
     No
     Yes
     Part
     Yes
     Yes
     Yes
     Yes
     No
     Yes
     Yes
                                                                                                                   OO
                                                                                                                    I

-------
                                                    TABLE 18-A Continued
                                                  INVENTORY  OF EMISSIONS(a)
 PARTICULATES
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Organic Chemicals
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Heating Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
   522
    92
    48
  3000
   105
   314
   136
       2.5
       0.4
       0.2
      14.4
       0.5
       1.5
       0.7
   0.3
   3.8
   0.5
   0.3
   Part
   Yes
   Yes
                                                                                                                     VO
                                                                                                                     I
   Part
   Part
   No
   Yes
   Part
      (a) Emission  data obtained  from reference  8,  Tables  3.2  and  3.8,  and  reference  9,  Table 2.1.
      (b) Based on  325 plants of  100 MW or  greater  generating  capacity.   Reference  9,  Table  2.2.
      (c) Based on  138 plants, reference 9,  Table 2.2.

-------
                                                 TABLE 18-B
                                           INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS^
SULFUR DIOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
                                                                                                    Candidate for
                                                                                                      Measurements
                                                                                                      Instruments
                                                                                                    for Continuous
                                                                                                      Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
 15,000

  2,100
     84

  2,950
    903
    600
     590
       49.

        6.8
        0.3

        9.6
        2.9
        1.9
         1.9
   46.0

     9.4
     0.7

   155.
   43.
Part(c)

Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
                                                                                                                   o
                                                                                                                   I
    9.2
                                                             Yes
     2.8
                                                             Yes

-------
                                               TABLE  18-B  Continued
                                            INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
 SULFUR DIOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yir.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurements
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
         (Continued)

Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
                      0.2
                            2.-2
                    Yes
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                                                            Part
                                                            Part
                                                            No
                                                            No
                                                            No
                Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
                Based on 325 plants of 100 MW or greater generating capacity.  Reference 9, Table 2.2.
                Assumes a substantial number of electric power plants will switch to low sulfur content  fuels.

-------
                                                    TABLE 18-C

                                            INVENTORY OF EMISSIONSCa)
CARBON MONOXIDE
                                  Industry
                                  Emissions
                                  of this
                                  Pollutant
                                  1000 T/Yr.
            Industry  Emission
            as  % of Total U.S.
            Stationary  Source
            Emissions of  this
               Pollutant
                  Average
                  Emissions
                  of  this
                  Pollutant
                  Per Source
                  1000 T/Yr.
                                                                                                    Candidate  for
                                                                                                      Measurements
                                                                                                      Instruments
                                                                                                    for  Continuous
                                                                                                      Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferroua Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron
                                     2030
                                     2600
'11 J


J
3500
  75
                    6.8
                    8.7
11.7
 0.3
                      9.1
                     23.0
                 Yes
                 Yes
2.1
0.5
Yes

No
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
                                      28S
                    1.0
                      9.5
                 Yes

-------
                                              TABLE 18-C Continued
                                            INVENTORY  OF  EMISSIONS(a)
CARBON MONOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of This
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
         (Continued)

Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                                                             Yes
             (a) Emission data obtained from reference 8. Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.

-------
                                                    TABLE 18-D
                                            INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS
HYDROCARBON
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
 Steam-Electric  Power  Plants
 Cement  Plants
 Petroleum Refineries
 Kraft-Pulp Mills
 Non-Ferrous  Smelters
   Copper
   Lead  and Zinc
 Iron-Steel
   Gray  Iron  Foundries
   Steel
   Pig-iron
   1950
       16.6
    8.7
                                                             Yes
 Carbon Black
 Coal Cleaning
 Coke (By-Product)
 Cotton-Ginning
 Ferro-Alloy
 Grain Milling
   Flour Mills
   Elevators
 Nitric Acid
 Phosphate  Fertilizers
   Manufacture
   Granulation
 Phosphoric Acid
 Rendering
 Soap and Detergent
 Sulfuric Acid
 Lime
   1500
       12.8
   23.1
                                                             Yes

-------
                                                TABLE 18-D Continued
                                             INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
HYDROCARBON
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
         (Continued)

Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
  1100
       9.3.
   0.04
                                                             Part
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
   1500(b)
       12.6
                     Yes
                     No
            (a)  Emission  data  obtained  from  reference  8, Tables  3.2 and  3.8,  and  reference  9,  Table  2.1.
                Includes  all solid waste disposal.

-------
                                                    TABLE 18-E
                                            INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
  Measurement
  Instruments
for Continuous
  Monitoring
 Steam-Electric Power Plants
 Cement Plants
 Petroleum Refineries
 Kraft-Pulp Mills
 Non-Ferrous Smelters
   Copper
   Lead and Zinc
 Iron-Steel
   Gray Iron Foundries
   Steel
   Pig-iron
   2975
       37.7
     9.1
                                                                                                         Yes
 Carbon Black
 Coal Cleaning
 Coke (By-Product)
 Cotton-Ginning
 Ferro-Alloy
 Grain Milling
   Flour Mills
   Elevators
 Nitric Acid
 Phosphate Fertilizers
   Manufacture
   Granulation
 Phosphoric Acid
 Rendering
 Soap and Detergent
 Sulfuric Acid
 Lime
                                                             No
    110
     23
     21
         1.4
    .1.5
    Yes
        0.3
        0.3
     0.1
     0.2
    No
    No

-------
                                               TABLE  18-E  Continued

                                             INVENTORY  OF  EMISSIONS(a)
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
    Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
         (Continued)

Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Industrial Boilers                            2800
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators                          16
Other Incinerators
                     35.4
                      0.2
                                              Part
                                              Part

                                              No
             (a) Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.

-------
         Having selected potential candidates for continuous measurement
instruments, it was then necessary to make an assumption concerning the
number of instruments which might be applied at a given source.  Estimating
this number cannot be based solely on the current emission points (stacks,
vents, etc.) at existing facilities.  As emission control equipment is
installed—and we have previously assumed that application of measurement
instrumentation will follow the control equipment—the reduction of emission
points by combining existing emission points into a common control system(s)
should occur to the maximum extent consistent with plant efficiency and
safety.

         It is also necessary to make a judgement concerning the fraction
of industry sources selected as potential candidates for measurement instru-
ments that will in fact ever install measuring instrumentation.  There are
various reasons why these industry sources might not install measuring
instrumentation.  These include plant locations in air pollution control
regions that do not require monitoring and for a relatively small number
of older sources shutting down the facility rather than installing the
necessary emission control equipment required to comply with the standards.

         In this analysis the estimated average number of monitors per
source, as shown in Tables 19-A to 19-E, is a composite number which
includey our estimates of the fraction of facilities which will indeed
install monitoring equipment and the number of instruments which might be
required at a given source.

         One additional type of market remaining to be included in the
analysis is the replacement market.  The useful life of instrumentation
for application at stationary sources of pollutant emissions is assumed
to average five years before replacement is required.  The often severe
environmental conditions in which the instrumentation will have to operate
should result in a shorter useful life for this type of instrumentation
relative to instruments used for ambient air quality measurements.  In
the absence of sufficient information to arrive at a yearly replacement
market, the total replacement market during the decade has been assumed
at 40% of the total initial purchases during this period.  This replacement
market is also shown in Tables 19-A to 19-E.

         Control Agency Requirements;  The last category of instrumentation
included in the stationary source measurement instrumentation market analysis
is the purchase of instrumentation by governmental control agencies to
achieve a capability to monitor stationary sources to determine compliance
with established air pollution codes.  The requirement for control agency use
is assumed to average two instruments per agency for each pollutant and
additional quantities of instruments for the larger state and local agencies.
Based on the  235 air pollution control regions that have been designated as
of January 1971, this assumption results in an agency requirement of 500 instru-
ments for each of the major gaseous air pollutants associated with stationary
sources of emission.  A higher number of particulate measurement instruments
(750) and a smaller number of fluoride measurement instruments (50) have been
assumed in order to reflect the number of emission sources.

-------
                                   -  49  -
         One additional type of source emission measurement .technique
which must be considered for control agency compliance measurements during
the decade is remote instrumentation.  Remote instrumentation permits the
"in-situ" sampling of the effluent plume from a stack while enabling the
detection to occur at a distance physically removed from the stack.  This
technique promises to be a powerful tool for spot-check compliance measure-
ments.  Although considerably more expensive than conventional emission
measurement instrumentation the potential savings in manpower suggest con-
siderable use of this technique by the major agencies.  We have assumed for
this analysis that half of the control agencies will have two instruments for
remote measurement of gaseous pollutants and two instruments for remote measure-
ment of particulate pollutants.  This assumption results in a demand for
approximately 500 remote source measurement instruments.

-------
                                                         TABLE 19-A
                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
PARTICULATES
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
ants 0.8(a)
3
2
1
1
0.8
1
ices) 1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Estimated
InsLr. for
Existing
Sources
1200
500
400
120
- 40
1450
800
200
29
120
50
600
70
220
300
70
200
120

Estimated
Instr. for
New
Sources
200
180
100
120
10
400
200
80
6
20
10
90
50
120
100
40
80
50

Total
Initial
Purchase
1971-80
1400
680
500
240
50
1850
1000
280
35
140
60
690
120
340
400
110
280
170

Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for
Existing Sources
1971-80
600 (b)
210
200
100
15
650
350
80
15
50
20
200
35
100
150
30
90
55
Total
Market
(Units)
2000
 890
 700
 340
  65
2500
1350
 360
  50

 190

  80

 890

 155

 440
 550
 140
 370
 225

-------
                                                  TABLE  19-A Continued
                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
PARTICULATES  (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors      Estimated  "   Estimated     Total
Per Existing  Instr. for    Instr. for    Initial
Source        Existing      New           Purchase
(Average)     Sources       Sources       1971-80
                                     Replacement
                                     at 40% of
                                     Instr. for          Total
                                     Existing Sources    Market
                                     1971-80	    (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
  0.25
  1
  1
350
 25
 90
150
 20
 20
500
 45
110
120
 10
 40
620
 55
150
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                1500
                2000

                 400
                 500
             1500
             2000

              450
              500
             3000
             4000

              950
             1000
              600
              800

              200
              200
              3600
              4800

              1150
              1200
 (a) Assumes all currently installed power generating units of 200 MW or greater capacity currently have adequate particulate
    measurements and that 80% of currently installed units less than 100 MW will be candidates for measurement.

 (b) Includes additional 300 instruments for replacement of currently installed particulate measurement instrumentation  In
    generating units of 200 MW or greater capacity.

-------
                                                        TABLE 19-B
                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
SULFUR DIOXIDE
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)

Estimated
Instr. for
Existing
Sources

Estimated
Inscr. for
Nev?
Sources

Total
Initial
Purchase
1971-80

Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for
Existing Sources
1971-80
                                                                    Total
                                                                    Market
                                                                    (Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills*
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron
0.5

2
2
2
900

400
200
 70
200

 80
120
 20
1100

 480
 320
  90
350

160
 50
 30
1450

 640
 370
 120
                                                                                                                             Ln
                                                                                                                             N>
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
              30
                              35
                             10
                                  45
             400
                160
             560
                100
                 660
 * Instrument will  also  measure  H^S and mercaptans.

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                                                  TABLE  19-B Continued
                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
SULFUR DIOXIDE
                (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors      Estimated     Estimated     Total
Per Existing  Instr. for    Instr. for    Initial
Source        Existing      New           Purchase
(Average)     Sources       Sources       1971-80
                      Replacement
                      at 40% of
                      Instr. for         Total
                      Existing Sources   Market
                      1971-80	   (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage

Other Chemicals
                 200
50
250
75
325
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                 200
                 200
100
100
300
300
50
50
350 w
350  '

-------
                                                        TABLE 19-C
                       ESTIMATED  PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
CARBON MONOXIDE
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
                                        Replacement
Estimated     Estimated     Total       at 40% of
Instr.  for    Instr.  for    Initial     Instr. for         Total
Existing      New           Purchase    Existing Sources   Market
Sources       Sources       1971-80     1971-80	   (Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron
     0.2
                  200
                  120
                  400
                    40
                    60
                   400
240
180
800
  80
  50
1300(a)
 320
 230
2100
                                                                                   Ol
                                                                                   *-
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
                   30
                                 35
                10
                   45

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                                                   TABLE 19-C Continued
                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:   1970-1980
CARBON MONOXIDE  (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors      Estimated     Estimated     Total
Per Existing  Instr. for    Instr. for    Initial
Source        Existing      New           Purchase
(Average)     Sources       Sources       1971-80
                      Replacement
                      at 40% of
                      Instr.  for         Total
                      Existing Sources   Market
                      1971-80	   (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
                                                                                                                              I
                                                                                                                              Ul
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating  Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                 400
450
950
                                                             200
                                            1150
 (a)  Includes  replacement of all currently installed instruments.

-------
                                                        TABL.E 19-D

                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES  OF  STATIONARY  SOURCE MEASUREMENT  INSTRUMENTATION:   1970-1980
HYDROCARBONS
Estimated
Number of
Monitors      Estimated     Estimated     Total
Per Existing  Instr.  for    Instr.  for    Initial
Source        Existing      New           Purchase
(Average)     Sources       Sources       1971-80
                      Replacement
                      at 40% of
                      Instr.  for         Total
                      Existing Sources   Market
                      1971-80	   (Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-Iron
                 600
100
700
                                                            200
                900
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
                  135
 20
155
50
205

-------
                                                   TABLE 19-rD Continued

                       ESTIMATED  PURCHASES OF  STATIONARY  SOURCE MEASUREMENT  INSTRUMENTATION:   1970-1980
HYDROCARBONS  (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
                                        Replacement
Estimated     Estimated     Total       at 40% of
Instr. for    Instr. for    Initial     Instr. for         Total
Existing      New           Purchase    Existing Sources   Market
Sources       Sources       1971-80     1971-80            (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
    0.05
    1
   1500
    300
500
200
2000
 500
100(a)
100
2100
 600
                                                                                                                               I
                                                                                                                               in
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
     1
     0
   450
450
 900
175
1075
 (a)  Low replacement value reflects favorable operational conditions for instrumentation monitoring hydrocarbon emissions
     at petroleum storage and transfer locations.

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                                                        TABLE 19-E
                       ESTIMATED  PURCHASES  OF  STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
                                        Replacement
Estimated     Estimated     Total       at 40% of
Instr.  for    Instr.  for    Initial     Instr. for         Total
Existing      New           Purchase    Existing Sources   Market
Sources       Sources       1971-80     1971-80    	   (Units
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-Iron
                                               0.8
                1400
                   300
1700
400
-------
                                                   TA&LE 19-E Continued

                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:  1970-1980
OXIDES OF NITROGEN  (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors      Estimated     Estimated     Total
Per Existing  Instr. for    Instr. for    Initial
Source        Existing      New           Purchase
(Average)     Sources       Sources     .  1971-80
                       Replacement
                       at  40% of
                       Instr. for         Total
                       Existing Sources   Market
                       1971-80	   (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
                 200
 100
 300
 50
 350
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
                1500
                2000
1500
2000
3000
4000
600(D
800(1)
3600
4800
                                                                                                                               i
                                                                                                                               v_n
                                                                                                                               vD

-------
                                                        TAELE 19-F

                       ESTIMATED PURCHASES  OF STATIONARY  SOURCE  MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION:   1970-1980

                                            Estimated
                                            Number of                                             Replacement
                                            Monitors       Estimated     Estimated     Total       at 40% of
                                            Per Existing   Instr.  for    Instr.  for    Initial     Instr. for         Total
                                            Source        Existing      New           Purchase    Existing Sources   Market
FLUORIDE                                    (Average)     Sources        Sources       1971-80     1971-80	   (Units)



Carbon  Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
   Flour Mills
   Elevators
Nitric  Acid                                                                                                                    i
Phosphate  Fertilizers                                                                                                          e
   Manufacture                                   1              200             100           300            100              400
   Granulation                                                           .
Phosphoric Acid                                 1              70             ^O           110             30              140
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum                                        1              25             20            45             10               55
Secondary  Non-Ferrous
   Copper
   Lead  and Zinc
Petroleum  Storage

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                                 - 61 -
Market Estimates

          This section of the report presents the estimated market for
the purchase of stationary source emission measurement instrumentation
during the period 1970-1980.  Tables 20 and 21 summarize the market estimates
for both the initial and total purchases during the decade and Tables 22 and
23 present a more detailed breakout of the market for monitoring instruments.

          The market analysis includes instrumentation required for monitoring
stationary source emissions for the following air pollutants:  particulates,
sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and fluorides,
The analysis does not include potential instrumentation needs for measurement
of polynuclear organic matter, lead and odors.  At this time, the approach to
measurements of polynuclear organic matter and odors has not been sufficiently
defined to enable realistic projections of needs.  It is conceivable that odor
measurements, if made at the source of emission, could be based on measuring
specific chemical species or classes of compounds associated with odors from
a particular source.  This could result in a decrease in the number of sulfur
dioxide measuring instruments and their replacement with an instrument capable
of measuring hydrogen sulfide (H?S) and mercaptans in addition to sulfur
dioxide.

          This analysis of the market does not include the potential market
for instrumentation to measure the emission of hazardous agents.  It also
does not include the market for pollutants not presently covered or expected
to be covered by either national ambient air quality standards or as hazardous
agents (see third group of pollutants on page 30).

          The market analysis does not include the sales of measurement
instrumentation to support the extensive research, development and demon-
stration programs which will be required to develop air pollution control
technology.

          The market analysis also contains a category called sampling
devices and accessories, which includes probes, sampling trains and other
accessories required to obtain a sample from a stationary source of emission
and lead the sample to the measuring instruments.  The average number of
sampling devices required has been assumed at 0.5 units per source at which
measurements are required, irrespective of the number of different pollu-
tants to be measured.  This average takes into account that many of the in-
struments developed for stationary source emission measurement will include
a sampling system integral to the instrumentation, thereby eliminating the
requirement for separate sampling devices.

-------
                                              TABLE  21
TOTAL PURCHASE OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION
(Summary Table)
Part. SO. NO HC CO F
2 x
Monitoring Ins truraents
Total Industrial 22870 4310 11170 4880 3845 595
Control Agencies 1050 700 700 700 700 75
Total Market 23920 5010 11870 5580 4545 670
Part. Gaseous Pollutants
(UNITS)

Sampling Devices
& Accessories

1150C
500
12000

                                                                                                                 N>
                                                                                                                  1
Remote Instruments      250
250

-------
                                             TABLE 20
INITIAL PURCHASE OF
Part.
Monitoring Instruments
Total Industrial 18050
Control Agencies 750
Total Market 18800
Part.
STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION (UNITS)
(Summary Table)
Sampling Devices
SO. NO HC CO F & Accessories
2 x

3435 9260 4255 2205 455 8500
500 500 500 500 50 350
i
u>
3935 9760 4755 2705 505 8850
Gaseous Pollutants
Remote Instruments
250
                                             250

-------
                                           TABLE  22

                 INITIAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
                 	1971 -1980 (UNITS)	

                                          (Detailed Table)
                                             Part.
           SO,
          NO
           HC
CO
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  (Copper,  Lead
   and Zinc)
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
1400
 680
 500
 240
  50
1850
1000
 280
1100

 480
 320
  90
1700
           700
240
180
                                800
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
  35

 140

  60

 690

 120

 340
 400
 110
 280
 170
                                 35
  35
           155
           260
                                         300

                                         110
 560

-------
                                        TABLE 22 Continued

                 INITIAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
                 	1971- 1980 (UNITS)	

                                          (Detailed Table)
                                             Part.
          SO,
NO
 HC
CO
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
500
 45
110
                                45
           250
 300
2000
 500
Industrial Boilers                           3000
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants      4000
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators                        950
Other Incinerators                           1000
           300
           300
3000
AOOO
                               900
                     950

-------
                                             TABLE 2_3

                  TOTAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
                                        1571-1980  (UNITS)         	
                                           (Detailed Table)
                                             Part.
           SO,
          NO
           HC
CO
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
  (Copper, Lead
   and Zinc)
Iron-Steel
  Gray Iron Foundries
  Steel
  Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
2000
 890
 700
 340
  65
2500
1350
 360
1450

 640
 370
 120
2100
           900
320
230
                               2100
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
  Flour Mills
  Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
  Manufacture
  Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
  50

 190

  80

 890

 155

 440
 550
 140
 370
 225
                                 45
  45
           205
           320
                                         400

                                         140
 660

-------
                                        TABLE 23 Continued

                  TOTAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
                  	1971-1980 (UNITS)	

                                        (Detailed Table)
                                             Part.
          S0_
NO
 HC
CO
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
  Copper
  Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
620
 55
150
                                55
           325
 350
2100
 600
Industrial Boilers                           3600
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants      4800
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators                       1150
Other Incinerators                           1200
           350
           350
3600
4800
                              1075
                    1150

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                                  -  68  -
                6.  MOBILE  SOURCE EMISSION MEASUREMENTS
          Mobile sources of air pollution consist of discrete sources  of
air pollution  that are  recognized as significant contributors to  the
deterioration  of local  air quality, particularly in urban areas and along
the interstate freeways.  In common with stationary sources of pollution,
they are discrete sources but they have their own special characteristics
which  require  special measurement tools and  techniques to monitor  their
emissions.  This section of the report is concerned with the type  and
quantity of instrumentation which will be required to measure the  emissions
from mobile sources, particularly the automobile.

Characteristics of the Market

          The  market for mobile source emission measurement instrumenta-
tion is a latent market,!, e. , the need for such instrumentation is evident
but a  market for instrumentation must await  the development of suitable
measurement hardware and testing procedures.  In estimating the market for
Lhis class of  measuring instrumentation, the following market character-
istics have been analyzed:

          (1)  Measurement requirements
          (2)  Legal basis for measurement requirements
          (3)  User of instrumentation

          Measurement Requirements;  The need for mobile source emission
measurement instrumentation is tied to a program to control the emissions
from mobile sources of  air pollution, particularly the automobile.
Measurement instrumentation provides a means to ascertain that control
devices attached to vehicles and engines achieve emission levels  consistent
with established emission standards.

          The  emission  standards for automotive vehicle/engine emissions
have been designated to cover three air pollution agents:  carbon  monoxide,
hydrocarbons and the oxides of nitrogen.  In addition, the market  analysis
assumes the eventual control of particulates from automotive vehicles/
engines.  Federal emission standards currently cover the first two named
rollutants and oxides of nitrogen emission control will be mandatory in 1972
The author has assumed  for this analyst* that participate emission control will
be mandatory in 1975.

          These standards are expressed in terms of the weight of pollutant emitted
per mile the vehicle is driven.  Since the emissions of a given pollutant
changes greatly under different driving conditions, such as idling, cruis-
ing and acceleration, a measurement to establish whether the emission
standards are  being met must be coupled to a test cycle that accurately
reproduces the average driving pattern or as an alternative the measure-
ment could be  accomplished during a road test of the vehicle.  The large
number of discrete sources of emissions, some 103 million vehicles in
1968, has thus  far precluded measurement on  the road.   The federal govern-
ment, as well  as certain state air pollution control agencies, have taken
the lead in developing appropriate test cycles and sampling procedures
which would enable measurements of emissions taken with the vehicle at a

-------
                                  -  69  -
fixed location to reflect whether the emissions were in compliance with
the established standards.  These cycles have, in most cases, used a
dynamometer (a form of inertia wheel) on which the vehicle is placed to
provide engine loadings representative of on-the-road driving patterns.
Some work has also been done to develop correlation between emissions re-
corded under engine idle and high-speed revolution without loading and
the on-the-road emissions.  Clearly the test cycle and sampling procedure
that is selected will determine the required measurement instrumentation
parameters of response time and concentration level of pollutant to be
measured .
                                                               i
          Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements;  The Air Quality Act
and state ^ir pollution codes have provided considerable guidance to what
type of measurements will most likely be required on emissions of air
pollution agents from the automobile.  The 1970 Amendment places great
emphasis on measurements of automotive emissions.  This discussion of the
legal basis for measurements is based on the 1970 Amendments.  j

          The 1970 Amendments provide for four separate checks ;on the
emissions from the automobile vehicle/engine which will require measurement
of emissions.  These are certification testing, surveillance testing,
quality assurance testing and inspection testing.  Certification testing
is applied to new vehicles/engines while surveillance testing and Inspec-
tion testing are applied to vehicles in general use.

          Certification and surveillance (llh and 111) testing will be
primarily federal government responsibilities and while they will involve
extensive emission testing they will be applied to a relatively small sample
population of vehicles/engines and will not represent a major market for
mobile source emission measurement instrumentation.

          The current California state air pollution code requires that
new motor vehicles entering the state after 1970 be measured for emissions
by the manufacturer *o ascertain that they conform with the state auto-
motive emission standards.  The 1970 Amendments authorize testing to deter-
mine that production models meet the emissions levels for which prototype
vehicles/engines were certified during the federal certification tests (llj).

          The periodic inspection of vehicles in general use to determine
if they continue to meet that emission standards under which they were
certified is not currently required by legislation except for surveillance
testing of a relatively small population sample by the federal government.
Air pollution codes in several states require such periodic testing once
technically feasible methods of testing are developed and some states, such
as New Jersey and California, are conducting demonstration test programs to
develop and prove the worth of such methods.  The 1970 Amendments provide

-------
                                  - 70 -
for grant funds to assist the states in developing and maintaining a
periodic inspection program to determine the compliance of velilclj^s and  .
emission control systems with the automotive emission standards.  In addi-
tion, the 1970 Amendments require that the state plans to implement air
quality standards in their regions include to the extent necessary and
practicable an approach for periodic inspection of motor vehicle* in
general use (11 m).

          Users of Instrumentation;  The users of mobile source emission
measurement instrumentation fall into three sections of the economy:
governmental control agencies, the automotive industry, and the automotive
service and repair area.

          Governmental control agencies, at the state and local level, will
be responsible for the periodic inspection of vehicles in general use.  In
this responsibility, they, or agents to whom they designate this responsi-
bility, will be the customers for inspection instrumentation and systems.
The automotive indstry will probably be responsible .for conducting assembly
line inspection testing of vehicles/engines.  The automotive service and
repair area is regarded as a customer for auto emission monitoring instru-
mentation to provide measurements in support of services required to return
vehicles and control devices that have failed the periodic inspection to an
operational condition that will meet the emission standards.

Method Used to
Estimate the Market

          This section of the report will consider the method used to
estimate the market for mobile source emission measurement instrumentation
for each of the three sectors of the market identified in the previous sec-
tion.

     Periodic Inspection of Vehicles in General Use

          The periodic inspection of vehicles in general use will be per-
formed either by a state or by some group to whom it delegates this authority.
It seems reasonable to assume that such periodic measurements will be com-
bined with the highway safety inspection programs and that the measurements
will be performed either in a state operated vehicle safety inspection
facility, such as those operated by New Jersey, Delaware, and the District
of Columbia or in an automotive repair or service facility that currently
is licensed to conduct the periodic state highway safety inspection.

          In estimating the number of inspection facilities required to con-
duct an adequate periodic inspection of vehicle emissions, it has been
assumed that a minimum of once a year inspection will be required.  Once a
year inspection is average for the highway safety inspection program, and
we have already indicated that it is likely that the auto emission inspection
will be tied to existing highway safety inspection programs.

-------
                                  -  71  -
          In estimating the market, we have considered two alternative
auto exhaust emission inspection procedures.  The first alternative pro-
vides a lower boundary on the number of facilities and hence the number of
instruments required by calculating the number of state operated inspec-
tion facilities that would be required to inspect on a once a year basis
every motor vehicle registered in the United States.  This calculation
involved extrapolating the existing plans of the State of New Jersey for
automotive inspection.  The New Jersey plan would involve installing one
set of measurement devices in each of the state's current 78 auto safety
inspection lanes.  One such measurement system has been in operation for
the past year and four additional systems are being installed to obtain
additional operating experience before a final decision is reached on the
state auto emissions inspection program in mid-1971.  The current average
length of time that a motor vehicle takes to traverse the New Jersey highway
safety inspection program is 90 seconds and it does not seem likely that a
meaningful auto emission program could be conducted in less than this
elapsed time period.  Based on New Jersey's automobile registration of
3,448,000 units in 1969 and a total U.S. registration of 104,702,000 units
in the same year, a nationwide minimum of 2,450 inspection complexes was
calculated. This minimum value was increased to 2,850 inspection complexes to
account for a sparcer automotive population in some parts of the U.S.
which would require a larger number of inspection facilities per unit
vehicle population. This represents the probable number of inspection com-
plexes needed to meet current auto emission inspection requirements.   Using an
estimate U.S. automotive registration of 153,000,000 units in 1980, an
additional one-thousand inspection complexes will be required during the
decade.

          Each inspection complex is assumed to contain instrumentation
capable of measuring the four pollution agents for which we have assumed
auto emission standards will be designated and a dynamometer or other suit-
able device to subject the vehicle/engine to a load consistent with the test
cycle that is selected.

          The second alternative involves conducting similar periodic  inspec-
tions in a facility, such as an automotive  service  station or repair facil-
ity, licensed by the state to conduct the automotive emission inspection.
We estimate that such an inspection procedure would increase the number of
emission inspection facilities required per unit vehicle population by several-fold,

     Adjustment and Repair of
     Automotive Emission Control Devices

          A periodic automotive emission inspection program is unlikely un-
less it is accompanied by regulations requiring correction of faulty vehicles,
engines and emission control devices.  These corrections will require monitor-
ing instruments to enable a repair or service facility to make adjustments to
the vehicle and/or control devices which will enable them to meet the emission
standards.

-------
                                  - 72 -
          This analysis of the market assumes that repair or service  facil-
ities will only purchase instrumentation to measure the level of hydro-
carbon and carbon monoxide emissions in automotive exhaust.  The measurement
of these two pollutants could be valuable in reducing emissions by providing
information needed to improve engine adjustments.  Instruments that enable
both of these pollutants to be measured are currently available at
$800-1000 per unit.  We have assumed that no instrumentation will be  re-
quired by repair or service facilities for measuring nitrogen oxide emissions,
although a market for instruments to measure this pollutant could develop
if the devices installed for nitrogen oxide emission control are amendable
to service station adjustment.

          The number of facilities who are potential customers for such
instrumentation is based on the number of automotive repair facilities and
service stations in the U.S. and the anticipated growth in this sector
assuming that the ratio of service/repair facilities per unit vehicle
population remains constant.  The required emission control adjustments
are in the nature of vehicle/engine tune-ups, a capability currently
available at most repair facilities and at many service stations.  The
market estimate for this sector of the market assumes 70% of the automo-
tive repair facilities and 25% of the service stations will purchase  instru-
mentation to measure hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from the
automobile.

     Assembly-Line Testing

          The market for assembly-line testing assumes that the authority
to require the manufacturers to test new vehicle production to determine if
new motor vehicles being manufactured do in fact conform with the regula-
tions with respect to which the certificate of conformity was issued will
be applied (llj).

          The initial purchase of assembly line emission test units in the
U.S. during the decade has been estimated based on the number of automotive
assembly lines in 1970, the additional new vehicle production in 1980,
the anticipated increase in assembly rate, and the number of instrumentation
complexes required per assembly line to conduct the required performance
testing.  We have assumed that five instrumentation complexes will be re-
quired per assembly line; a quantity of instrumentation which will enable
performance testing of 10 to 15% of the new vehicle production using  the
current 23-minute certification cycle.

Market Estimates
          This section of the report presents the estimated market for auto-
motive emission measurement instrumentation during the period 1971-1980.
Tables 24 to 26 present the market for automotive emission inspection in-
strumentation using state operated facilities.  Tables 27 and 28 present
similar market analysis data for an alternate inspection procedure where
the inspections are conducted in state franchised stations.  Tables 29 and
30 cover the service area instrumentation requirements.   Tables 31 and 32
cover the assembly line emission testing market.

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                               - 73 -


                              Table  24
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement
                    AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION

                Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Station Requirement;

Basis;  (1)  Nationwide annual inspection of each motor vehicle in a
             state owned and operated inspection facility.

        (2)  Vehicle inspection lane requirement assumed similar to
             State of New Jersey highway inspection system.

                    78 Lanes (a) for 3,448,000  vehicles (b)

        (3)  U.S. motor vehicle registration

                    1969    104, 702, 000 (b)

                    1970    108,500,000(c)

                    1980    153,000,000(c)

Estimate of Station Requirement;


        1970    78 x *°5 = 2450 stations
        1980    78 x Y- = 3460 stations


Station Requirement Assumed for Market Analysis(d)

        1970  -  2850 stations

        1980  -  3860 stations
Source: (a) State of New Jersey
        (t> ) Reference 3
        (c) Reference 4

    Assumes an additional 400 stations required to adequately service
    less densely populated states.

-------
                               Table  25
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement
                    AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION

                Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Probable Station Components;
 _   Component

 Sampling Device

 Air I
   Carb>->.) Mouuxide
   Hydroca iboii
   NJ t roger Oxides
   Particulates

 Dynamometer
 No. per
Station(a)

   1.1
   1.1
   1.1
   1.1
   1.1

   1.1
  Probability
   of Station
Having Component
Estimated *
  Cost

   1000
1
1
1
1
2000
2000
2000
3000
                        1000
 (a)  Assumes  10% spares as average over all facilities.

  *  The reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
     discussion of probable instrumentation cost.

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                              - 75 -


                             Table 26

                                   Mobile Source Emission Measurement
                   AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION

               Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Market Estimate;  1971-80

                          Initial        Replacement(a)        Total
     Component           Purchases         Purchases          Market

 Sampling Device           4240               2120             6360

 Analyzers

   Carbon Monoxide         4240               2968             7208
   Hydrocarbons            4240               2968             7208
   Nitrogen Oxides         4240               2544             6784
   Particulates            4240                --              4240

 Dynamometer               4240                --              4240
 (a) Replacement market estimated to follow assumptions outlined in
     Table 8.  Assumes initial nitrogen oxide analyzer installations
     by 1974 and particulates analyzer installation by 1976.

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                                - 76 -
                                Table 27

                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement


                    AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION

         Alternate II - Inspection in State Franchisee! Station
Station Requirement;

Basis:  (1)  Assumed maximum inspection rate of 4000 vehicles per station
             per year.

        (2)  Nationwide annual inspection of all motor vehicles.

        (3)  U.S. motor vehicle registrations.

             1970     108,500,000 (a)

             1980     153,000,000 (a)  .

Estimate of Station Requirement;

             1970    108.5 M/4000 = 27,100 stations

             1980    153.0 M/4000 = 35,750 stations

Probable Station Components;


    	Component	       No.  Per Station       Estimated  Cost*

    Analysers

      Hydrocarbon-Carbon               1                   $1000
      monoxide  (Combined)
      Nitrogen  Oxides                  1                     750

    Sampling Device                    1                     200
* The reader is referred  to Section  7, beginning on page 82, for a
  discussion of probable  instrumentation cost.
Source:   (a) Reference 4

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                                - 77  -
                               Table 28
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement
                    AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION

         Alternate II - Inspection in State Franchisee) Station
Market Estimate;  1971-80
                                 Initial                        Total
           Component	    Purchase    Replacements (a)    Market
Analyzer
  Hydrocarbon-carbon Monoxide     35,750          7,150         42,900

  Nitrogen Oxides                 35,750          7,150         42,900

Sampling Device                   35,750           --           35,750
(a) Replacements for analyzers assumed to be 20% of initial purchase.

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                                 - 78 -


                               Table 29
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement

                             SERVICE AREA
Station Requirement;
Basis;  (1)  57,838 general auto repair shops (1967)(a).
             32,898 new motor vehicle franchisee! dealers (1967) (a).
             216,059 gasoline service stations (1967) (a).
        (2)  U.S. registered motor vehicles 1967 - 104,702,000
                                            1970 - 108,500,000
                                            1980 - 153,000,000
        (3)  Assumed participation of service area in emission control
             system/device repair
             70% general auto repair shops
             80% new motor vehicle franchised dealers
             257o gasoline service stations
        (4) . Auto service area will grow at same rate as motor vehicle
             registrations.
Estimate of Station Requirement;
     General Auto repair                    .7 x 57,838 x   ?'  = 59,164
     New motor vehicle franchised dealers   .8 x 32,898 x   "T'   = 38,425
     Gasoline service stations             .25 x 216,059 x ':'   = 78,862
(a)  Source:  U.S.  Department of Commerce,  Bureau of the Census,
            1967  Census of Business,  Construction Industry  and
            Manufacturing.

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                               - 79  -


                                Table 30
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement
                             SERVICE AREA
Probable Station Components;

                                                              Estimated
	Component	          No. per Station          _ Cost *

Hydrocarbon-Carbon Monoxide                 1                   500
(Combined analyzer)

Market Estimate;  1971-80

                               Initial                        Total
	Component	    Purchase    Replacements (a)    Market

Hydrocarbon-Carbon Monoxide    176,000         35,200         211,200
(Combined analyzer)
Note;  If Alternate II for Automotive Inspection Testing (Use of State
       franchised stations) was followed the initial purchase of service
       area components is reduced by 35,750 components, as instrumentation
       for a portion of the service area would be covered under the
       automotive inspection testing category.  Including replacements
       the total service area market would be reduced by 42,900 units.
(a) Replacements assumed to be 20% initial purchases.
 *  The reader is referred to Section 7,  beginning on page 82,  for a
    discussion of probable instrumentation cost.

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                                -.80 T-


                              Table 31

                                     Mobile  Source  Emission  Measurement


                   ASSEMBLY LINE EMISSION TEST  UNITS
Requirement;

Basis;   (1)  60-70 assembly  lines  in U.S.  (1970)(a*.

         (2)  Motor Vehicle assemblies  per  unit  time per  assembly  line
             will increase from  1969 average  of  55 vehicles  per hour
             to  100 vehicles  per hour(b).

         (3)  Assembly  line capacity will grow at  the  same  rate as
             projected yearly motor vehicle production  rate.

         (4)  U.S. motor vehicle  production for  1970 -  11,500,000  units(c)
                                                1980 -  15,000,000  units(c)

         (5)  Assumes 5 instrumentation  complexes  per  assembly  line.

Estimate of Instrumentation Complexes
for Assembly Lines - 1980	

   Number of        Production     Assembly Rate     Instrumentation Complexes
 Assembly Lines  x    Ratio     x      Ratio       x      Per Assembly Line
      1970          1970-1980        1970-1980
                 Instrumentation Complexes Required in 1980
            65  x ——rjf x TTrrr x  5  =  232  instrumentation complexes
                11. jn  ±UU
    Based  on 57  auto  assembly plants
(b)  Fortune, July 1970, p. 117.
(c)  Auto News, December 12, 1969.

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                                -  81  -

                                Table 32 —
                                    Mobile Source Emission Measurement

                   ASSEMBLY LINE EMISSION TEST UNITS


Probable Test Unit, Components;
Same as State operated Automotive emission testing (see  Table  23).
Market Estimate   (1971-1980):

                          Initial                              .Total
     Component           Purchases       Replacements (a)       Marjtet
 Sampling Device           232                 93               325
 Analyzers
   Carbon Monoxide         232                 93               325
   Hydrocarbon             232                 93               325
   Nitrogen Oxides         232                 93               325
   Particulates            232                 93               325
 Dynamometer               232                 93               325
 (a) Replacements estimated at 40% of initial purchases.

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                                 - 82 -
                    7.  DOLLAR VALUE FOR THE MARKET
          An estimate of the dollar value of the market for air pollution
measurement instrumentation during the period 1971-1980 is presented in
this section.  The author recognizes that estimating the dollar value of
the market is an uncertain undertaking as it is extremely sensitive to the
price assumed for a unit of instrumentation.  However, many of the users
of this report will find a dollar value analysis of the market useful,
and we present such an analysis clearly stating the assumptions that we
have used.  The user of the report can easily change the assumed unit
price of instrumentation or other factors as he sees fit and thereby ob-
tain a new estimate of the dollar value of the market.

           The probable  unit price  assumed  for  this  estimate has  previously
been  given for ambient  air quality level instrumentation  (see  Tables  12
and  14)  and  for mobile  source  emission  measurement  instrumentation  (see
Tables  25,  27 and  30).   Before presenting  the  dollar  value, estimates  for
the  market justification for some  of  the assumed  probable  unit instrumenta-
tion  prices  are needed.

           The probable  ambient air quality  level  monitoring instrumentation
unit  price has been  assumed to be  $4000 for  a  gaseous  pollutant  analyzer
including  a  simple recorder.*   The assumed  price  for  the  gaseous  pollutant
analyzer  is  considerably  higher  than  the advertised price  of many recently
introduced ambient air  quality analyzers,  although  it  is very  close  to the
advertised price of  similar instruments sold by established companies  in
the  industry.  It  is  our  opinion  that  the  pricing of  instrumentation  by
the  established companies in the  industry  is closer to the probable  future
price for  ambient  air quality  monitoring instrumentation,  and  that  the
price advertised by  many  of the new entrants to this  field does  not  adequately
reflect  the  high cost of  marketing the  instrumentation and providing  tech-
nical service to limited  and widely-scattered  customers each purchasing  but
a  few units  of a particular analyzer.

           A  unit price  of $500 has been assumed for gas collection  devices
used  for  collecting  samples of gaseous  pollutants to  measure trends  in air
pollution.   This unit price is based  on current prices for a sequential
gas  bubbler  collection  system.   Improved trend measurement instrumentation
is currently under development, but present  estimates  of  the cost of  such
instrumentation is in the range of $1500-2500  per unit.  We do not  expect
that  the  funding availability  for  purchase  of  this  type of equipment  by
control  agencies will support  the  required  number of  trend measurement in-
struments  at a price much in excess of  $500.
 * All  instrumentation prices  given  in  this  report  are  1970 prices.   No
    attempt  has been made  to consider potential price increases  during the
    decade due  to  inflation or potential  price decreases  resulting  from
    technological  improvements.

-------
                                 - 83 -
          The probable stationary source emission measurement instrumentation
unit price has also been estimated to be $4000 including a simple recorder,
but: for different reasons.  Again the potential customers will be purchasing
only a few analyzers, in many cases but a single analyzer.  Many more poten-
tial customers, however, are located in an area accessible to a marketing
and technical service team which should lead to a more effective sales
organization and hence lower marketing costs.  These savings are offset by
the increased complexity of instrumentation capable of operating under the
adverse environmental conditions found in source emission measurement.
Even at the assumed cost for source emission measurement instrumentation,
the cost represents a relatively small value compared to the cost of the
emission abatement equipment that the measurement instrumentation will
assist to control.

          Instrumentation for remotely measuring particulate or gaseous
pollutants emitted from stationary sources is estimated to cost $25,000
per unit.

          The  probable mobile source emission measurement  instrumentation
assumed unit price is quite variable.   Looking  first  at  instrumentation
for auto exhaust  emission  inspection testing, we find  that analyzers
covering, in many instances, a  pollutant concentration  level range  similar
to  that of stationary source emission measurement instrumentation are
priced  $2000 lower.  This  reflects  the  less  severe  environmental conditions
in which the instrument must operate and the savings  in  marketing costs
associated with one-time  large  quantity purchases over  a short  time period.

          The  instrumentation for  the service area  component of  the market .
is  assumed to  be  low price  instrumentation.  This assumption is  based  on
the price that can be paid  for  an  instrument to be  used  in making minor
adjustments to vehicle engines  and  control devices  to  insure an  improvement
in  their performance as pollution  abatement  systems as  compared  to  the
probable extra charge that  can  be passed on  to  the  vehicle owner.

          One  further danger in providing a  dollar  value estimate of  the
market  results from  the long market period that we  are  considering
relative to the anticipated life of instrumentation.   The market period  of
ten years results in a considerable replacement market.   Some users of this
report  may want to make assumptions concerning  the  replacement  rate for  in-
strumentation  that differ  from  those made in this analysis.  In  an  effort
to  assist these users the dollar value  estimates for  the market  are presented
for both the total market during the decade  and for the  initial  purchase
market.

-------
                                                TABLE 33
                            MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION TOTAL PURCHASE
                                 MARKET  VALUE  ESTIMATE:  1971-1880(a)

                                                ($1000)
     Analyzers
Particulates
Sulfur dioxide
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Oxidants
Odors
Fluorides
Polynuclear organic
  matter

Remote Instrumentation
  Particulates
  Gaseous pollutants

      Sampling
Devices & Accessories
Ambient Air Quality
  Level Monitoring
            Trend
 CAM      Indicator
 2000
 5684
 5528
 6080
 5576
 4544
 5736
 5168
 1520
 1970
                                   6925
13208
                                                Stationary Source
                                               Emission Measurement
                    95,680
                    20,040
                    18,180
                    22,320
                    47,480
                     2,680
                                6,250
                                6,250
                               24,000
        Mobile Source
    Emission Measurement	
  Inspection (b )       Service
and Assembly Line       Area

     13,690

     15,066           105,600
     15,066
     14,218
                                                                                          09
                                                                                          •c-
                                           11,250
                      43,796
          20,133
                   242,880
     69,290
105,600
 (a)  Total market value including initial purchases and replacements.
 (b)  Inspection market estimate for this table is based on state operated
     emission inspection stations (Alternate I).

-------
                                              TABLE 34
    Analyzers
Particulates
Sulfur dioxide
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Oxidants
Odors
Fluorides
Polynuclear organic
  matter

Remote Instrumentation

  Particulates
  Gaseous pollutants
                                     MEASUREMENT  INSTRUMENTATION
                           INITIAL PURCHASE MARKET VALUE  ESTIMATE:
                                            1971-1980
                         Ambient  Air Quality
                           Level  Monitoring
CAM

2000
2684
2888
3800
2976
2504
3256
3468
1520
1520
Trend Indicator
                                    3952
                                    8419
                        ($1000)

                          Stationary Source
                         Emission Measurement
                          75,200
                          15,740
                          10,820
                          19,020
                          39,040
                                                         2,020
                                                         6,250
                                                         6,250
       Mobile Source
   Emission Measurement	
  Inspection(a)Service
and Assembly Line     Area

     13,416

      8,944         88,000
      8,944
      8,944
                                                                                                                 03

                                                                                                                 i
      Sampling
Devices & Accessories
                                 17,700
                                                 8,944
                      26,616
             12,371
                        192,040
     49,192
                                                                                              88,000
 (  ) Inspection market estimate for this  table  is based on Alternate  I

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                                 - 86 -
                    8.  TIME FRAME FOR THE MARKET
          The market growth rate for each of the market areas will not be
uniform over the decade.  As shown in Figure 1, the market for ambient air
quality monitors and for auto emission measurement instruments should reach
maturity during the decade and begin to decrease.
Ambient Air Quality Monitoring

          The market for ambient level measurement instrumentation  is ex-
pected to have its period of pronounced growth in the next few years, i-each-
ing its peak in 1975, and trailing off thereafter to a replacement  level
during the remainder of the decade.  This estimate is based on the  early
designation of control regions by the federal government which should
enable establishment of the majority of control programs within  the  coming
year.  Following an initial period of purchasing instruments to  set  up their
monitorJng networks, which we estimate will be completed in 1974, we anti-
cipate that the yearly market for this area of instrumentation will,  be con-
siderably reduced in the remainder of the decade.
Stationary Source Emission Measurements

          The market for source emission measurement which accounts  for  the
•najjr segment of the total instrumentation market during the decade  is
expected to have a slow but very impressive growth.  The slow growth that
we postulate is based on the hypothesis that routine monitoring of stationary
source emissions will not be required until control techniques are installed.
Once control techniques are installed source emission monitoring will enable
both the tabulation and recording of the emission rate and function  as part
of th:s feedback loop for pollution emission control.  We expect that air
pollution control techniques will be widely installed by the end of  the
decade and that the general application of source emission monitoring will
follow the technology application.

Auto Emission Measurements

          As we pointed out earlier the market for auto emission inspection
and testing instrumentation is based on our assumption that the states will
conduct annual automotive emission inspections to assure that the air pollu-
tion control equipment on automobiles is in effective working order.   We
estimate that the agency segment of this market will peak in 1977, although
the peak could occur anywhere in the 1975-78 period.  One of the reasons
for the projected rapid growth of this market is the Increasing probability
that additional federal grant funds will be mad  available to the states to
implement an inspection and testing program (11 £).   Once these federal funds

-------
                                  - 87 -
are made available we foresee a very short period in which the states
will establish inspection and emission testing facilities.  The market
during the remainder of the decade will be limited to instrumentation
replacement and expansion of the inspection facilities.

          The service area segment of the market will follow the establish-
ment of the state inspection and emission testing programs as the need for
a capability to make minor adjustments to the engine and the control devices
to insure an improvement in their performance as a pollution abatement sys-
tem is recognized.  This segment of the market should reach its peak within
two years following the peaking in the agency segment of the market.

          Industry purchases of instrumentation to perform emission quality
assurance testing by the auto manufacturers is expected to be completed by
1975.

-------
                                          - 88 -
                                         TABLE 35
Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
197*
1976
1977
I1; ''8
19 V9
1980

Totals
  7
  to
TIME
Ambient Air
Quality Level
Monitoring
3
4
7
11
12
7
3
4
5
6
62
13
FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION
SUMMARY BY MEASUREMENT AREAS
Million Dollars per Year
MARKET

Stationary Source Auto Exhaust
Emission Measurement Emission Measurement
4
6
10
14
22
27
32
38
44
46
243
51
1
3
9
15
26
30
31
26
19
15
175
36
Totals

   8
  13
  26
  40
  60
  64
  66
  68
  68
  67

 480
 100

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TABLE 36

TIME
FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION MARKET
SUMMARY BY MEASUREMENT AREAS
Million Dollars per Year
Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Totals
%
Agency
4
7
12
20
30
25
18
14
13
15
158
33
Industry
4
5
9
12
18
23
28
35
40
43
217
45
Automotive
Service Area
--
1
5
8
12
16
20
19
15
9
105
22
Totals
8
13
26
40
60
64
66
68
68
,67
480
100

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                                                         TABLE  57


TIME
FRAME FOR THE
INSTRUMENTATION MARKET
Million Dollars per Year
Ambient Air
Quality Level
Monitoring
Agency
Year^
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
I_ R
3
4
6 1
10 1
10 2
4 3
3
4
5
6
T_
3
4
7
11
12
7
3
4
5
. 6
Stationary Source Emission Measurement
Agency
L

1
2
3
5
3
3
3
3
2
R T

1
2
3
5
1 4
1 4
1 4
1 4
1 3
Industry
i 	
4
5
7
9
13
17
21
26
32
33
R


1
2
4
6
7
8
8
10
T_
4
5
8
11
17
23
28
34
40
43
Agency
I R
1
2
3
6
12 1
12 2
8 3
3 3
4
6
Auto Exhaust Emission Measurement
Service Area
T_

2
3
6
13
14
11
6
4
6
!_ R

1
5
8
12
15 1
18 2
15 4
10 5
3 6
1^

I
5
8
12
16
20
19
15
9
Industry
I_ R T


1 1
1 1
1 1


1 1


                                                                                                                            VO
                                                                                                                            O
TOTALS   37.
25
62
25
30
167
46
213
                      47
                                               19
                                          66
87
                                         18
105
     I = Initial purchases
     R = Replacement purchases
     T = Total purchases

-------
                                 - 91 -
                          9.  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

          The author expresses his appreciation to Dr. Robert S. Kirk,
Office of Air Programs, the EPA project officer on this project,
and to numerous individuals from the instrumentation industry and govern-
ment for the time they have spent in discussing various aspects of this
market.  He especially acknowledges the contribution of Mr. Oliver Cano,
Bendix Process Instrument Division; Mr. Andrew Kazarinoff, Stevenson,
Jordan & Harrison (Management Consultants); Mr. William Orr. Monsanto
Envirochem Systems; Mr. Harold Orloff, Ethyl Corporation; and Mr. Robert
Stevens, Division of Chemistry & Physics. Environmental Protection Agency.

-------
                                -  92  -
                        10.    REFERENCES
1.  "Air  Pollution  Control  and  Solid  Wastes  Recycling",  Part  1,  Hearings
    before  the  subcommittee on  Public Health and Welfare of the  Cojmittee
    on  Interstate and  Foreign Commerce,  House of Representatives 91st
    Congress, Serial No.  91-49.

        (a)  page 75

2.  "Progress in the Prevention and Control  of Air  Pollution",  3rd  R.«port
    of  the  Secretary of HEW to  the Congress, Senate Doct.  No.  91-64, 91st
    Congress, 2nd Session,  April 27,  1970,

3.  "1970 Automobile Facts  and  Figures", Automobile Manufacturers Asso-
    ciation, New York, N.Y.

4.  Data  prepared by Predicasts Inc.  for Industry Week,  "Industry Week",
    August.  3, 1970, p. 52.

5.  "Progress in the Prevention and Control  of Air  Pollution",  1st  Report
    of  the  Secretary of HEW to  the Congress, Senate Doct.  No.  92, 90th
    Congress, 2nd Session,  June 28, 1968.

         (a) page 52

6.  "National Air Quality Standards Act  of 1970, Report  of the Committee
    on  Public Works United  States  Senate to  Accompany S.4358",  Senate
    Report  No.  91-1196, 91st Congress, 2nd Session,  September  17, 1970.

        (a) pages 9, 18 and 20
        (b) page 18
        (c) page. 20
        (d) p«ge 16


7.  "Progress in the Prevention and Control  of Air  Pollution",  2nd  Report
    of  the  Secretary of HEW to  the Congress, Senate Doct.  No.  91-11, 91st
    Congress, 1st Session,  March 4, 1969.

8.  "The  Cost of Clean Air", 2nd Report  of the Secretary of HEW  to  the
    Congress, Senate Doct.  No.  91-65, 91st Congress,  2nd Session, April 27,
    1970.

9.  "National Emissions Standards  Study", Report of the  Secretary of HEW
    to  the  Congress, Senate Doct.  No. 91-63, 91st Congress, 2nd  Session,
    April 27, 1970.

-------
                                  - 93 -
10.   "The Economy, Energy, and the Environment" prepared for the Joint
     Economic Committee Congress of the United States, Joint Committee Print,
     91st Congress, 2d Session, September 1, 1970.

11.   "Clean Air Act" Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.,
     December, 1970. (P.L. 91-604)

          (a)  Sec. 105 (a)(l)(A&B)               (g)  Sec  112
          (b)  Sec. 110 (a)(2)(C)                  (h)  Sec.  206 (a) (1)
          (c)  Sec. 110 (a)(2)(F)                  (i)  Sec.  207 (c) (1)
          (d)  Sec. 110 (a)(l)                     (j)  Sec.  206 (b)(l)
          (e)  Sec. Ill (d)(l)                     (k)  Sec.  2Q7 (b)(2)
          (f)  Sec' U1                           CD  Sec,  210
                                                   )  Sec,  110 (aK2)(G)
  12.  "Air Pollution— 1970," Part 1, Hearings before the Subcommittee on
       Air and Water Pollution of the Committee on Public Works, United
       States Senate, 91st Congress, on S.3229, S.3466 and S.3546, March 1970.


           (a) Question 4 submitted to DHEW by Senator Muskie, in letter
               of April 8, 1970, and subsequent answers by DHEW.  See
               page 364 of this hearings report.
  13.  "The Air Quality Monitoring Program in New York State," Hunter, D.C.
       paper 69-205, 62nd Annual Mtg., Air Poll. Control Association, New
       York, N.Y., 1969.

  14.  "Most Advanced System of Air Pollution Monitoring,"Air Engineering,
       22-24, December 1968.

  15.  "Monitoring Air Pollution," Pennsylvania's Health, 30(1), 18-20,
       spring 1968.

  16.  "New York Times," December 6, 1969, p. 35.

  17.  "Pennsylvania's Computerized Air Monitoring System," B. A. Brodovicz, Jr.
       and V. H. Sussman, J. Air Poll. Control Assoc., 19, 484-489 (July 1969).

  18.  "Allegheny County's Air Monitoring Program," E. L. Stockton, paper
       69-207, 62nd Annual Mtg., Air Poll. Control Association, New York, N.Y.,
       1969.

  19.  "The New York State Continuous Air Quality Monitoring System,"
       Cower, D. E., Preprint 1043, ASCE Annual and Environmental Meeting,
       Chicago, 111., 1969.

  20.  "The Aerometric Network of the City of New York," Heller, A. N. and
       Ferrand, E. F., paper 69-5, 62nd Annual Mtg.,  Air Poll. Control
       Association, New York, N.Y., 1969.

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                                 ADDENDUM
          While this report was at the printers, the Environmental
Protection Agency published two notices in the Federal Register which
will affect the market for air pollution measurement instrumentation.

          Part II of Volume 36, No. 158 of the Federal Register,
August 14, 1971 promulgated regulations for preparation adoption and
submittal of implementation plans.  In item 420.17 covering air quality
surveillance, the minimum frequency of sampling is promulgated.  Two
types of measurement techniques are called for:  (1)  24-hour samples
which correspond to the trend indication instrumentation described
on page 16 of this report, and (2)  continuous techniques described
on page 15 of this report.

          Part II of Volume 36, No. 159 of the Federal Register,
August 17, 1971 proposed standards of performance for new stationary
sources.  In item 466.25, 466.53, and 466.64 continuous monitoring
of emissions from selected stationary sources is proposed.

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