PB-204 174
A STUDY OF MARKETS FOR AIR POLLUTION
MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION 1971-1980
Rene R. Bertrand
June 1971
DISTRIBUTED BY:
National Technical Information Service
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield Va. 22151
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ESSO RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING COMPANY
A STUDY OF MARKETS
FOR AIR POLLUTION MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION
1971-1980
by
Rene R. Bertrand
Prepared Under
Contract No. CPA 22-69-154
June, 1971
for
Office of Program Development
Office of Air Programs
Environmental Protection Agency
Rockville, Maryland
GRU.1GAPI.71
government
research
P. O. BOX 8 • LINDEN NEW JERSEY 07036
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blBLIOOKAHHIC DATA 1- Report No. 12.
SHEET APTD-0800 |
4. Title and Subtitle
A Study of Markets For Air Pollution Measurement
Instrumentation 1971-1980
7. Author(s)
Rene R. Bertrand
9. Performing Organization Name and Address
ESSO Research and Engineering Company
P. 0. Box 8
Linden, New Jersey 07036
12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
Office of Program Development
Office of Air Programs
Environmental Protection Agency
Rockville', Maryland
3. Recipient's Accession No.
5- l«p«ft Date
June 1971
6.
8. Performing Organization Kept.
No.
10. Project/Task/Work Unit No.
11. Contract/Grant No. j
CPA 22-69-154
13. Type of Report & Period
Covered
1
14.
is. Supplementary Notes DISCLAIMER - This report was furnished to the Ot rice of Airi
Programs by ESSO Research and Engineering Company, P. 0. Box 8, Linden,
Mew Jersey 07036 in fulfillment of CPA 22-69-154
16. Abstracts 1
See last page in the report for the completed bibliographic data sheet. j
I ./. Key Words and Document Analysis. 17o. Descriptors
' I7b. klcmi/ier.s/Open-Ended Terms
18. Availability Statement
19. .Security Class (This
Report)
UNCLASSIFIED
20. Security Class (This
Page
UNCLASSIFIED
21. No. of Pages
Ql
22. Price /
3
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1. Preface 1
2. Summary. 2
3. Introduction 9
4. Market for Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
Instrumentation 11
5. Market for Stationary Source Emission Measurement
Instrumentation 27
6. Market for Mobile Source Emission Measurement
Instrumentation 68
7. Dollar Value of the Market 82
8. Time Frame for the Market 86
9. Acknowledgments 91
10. References 92
III
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UNCLASSIFIED
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1971-1980
oral* milhof) . Mb ••POUT •ICUHIt'V.CA>AA|tetCATION
Engineering Company Unclassified
07036
for Air Pollution Measurement Instrumentation
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Final report
AU THOMOI (Flnl IMWW. mldttt*
Rene R. Bertrand
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June 1971
M. CONTRACT OX OHANT NO.
CPA 22-69-154
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10. OKTP.IBUTION ITATKMKNT
Distribution of this report is unlimited,
II. fUPPlKMCNTAMV NOTCf
Sponsoring Activity
Office of Program Development
Office of Air Programs
Environmental Protection Agency
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It. ABITMACT
The market for air pollution instrumentation during the decade
of the 70's has been determined. The market analysis presented is
based on the survey of instrumentation requirements conducted at the
federal, state, and local level and on an analysis of current legislation and
air pollution control codes. We have estimated the market for three areas
of measurement instrumentation: ambient level monitoring, stationary source
emission measurement, and auto exhaust measurement. This market amounts to
nearly one-half billion dollars during the coming decade, some 767. of which
represents initial purchases of air pollution measuring equipment. Industry
will be the major purchaser of instrumentation accounting for 457. of the
market. The market is heavily oriented towards stationary source emission
measurement, this area accounting for one-half of the total instrumentation
market value. It is shown that the timing is a critical factor in the
market with each of the ohree areas of measurement reaching maturity at
different periods during the decade.
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Air pollution
Measurement instrumentation
Stationary sources of pollution
Ambient air quality monitoring
Auto exhaust measurement
Value of market
Emissions
Nitrogen oxides
Nitric oxides
Nitrogen dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Oxidants
Particulates
Fluorides
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Polynuclear organic matter
High volume sampler
Gas collector devices
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1. PREFACE
This analysis of the market for air pollution instrumentation
during the period 1971-1980 was prepared to assist in the deteratuation
of a federal research and development plan for the fiscal years
1972-1977 to insure the timely availability of the measurement instrumen-
tation required for the Nation's air pollution control progratt. The market
analysis was directed toward an assessment of the potential martot size
and thus the expected contribution that the private sector might Inake to
this program.
In making this assessment, an effort has been made to keep the
assumptions concerning the potential application of instruments and the
cost of instrumentation as conservative as possible while still maintain-
ing a realistic view of the measurement requirements imposed by current
air pollution control legislation and the author's assessment of the
intent of such legislation. This conservative approach was necessary t,o
insure that the federal air pollution instrumentation R/D plan, vbich
this market analysis complemented, would include the provision fot con-
ducting and supporting all required instrumentation R/D, unless an over-
whelming profit motive existed for support from the private sector. This
approach, in all probability, has resulted in an undervaluation of the
total market for air pollution instrumentation during the coming decade.
The analysis as presented in this report was essentially com-
pleted in July 197C and was based on proposed legislation at that time
before the Congress to amend the Air Quality Act of 1967. Issuance of
the report was delayed to await the final outcome of the proposed legis-
lation, in view of the major potential impact this legislation was
expected to have on the market for stationary and mobile source measure-
ment instrumentation. Minor revisions have recently been-made to the
report to reflect the provisions of the Clean Air Amendments of 1970
passed by Congress in December, 1970. During this revision, the oppor-
tunity was taken to make changes that reflect current federal plans for
support funding to the state and local government air pollution control
programs. Notations have also been added to reflect the views of.several
individuals that have kindly reviewed the earlier drafts of this report.
These views, for the most part, put forth alternate measurement strategies
or suggest additional Instrumentation requirements that could greatly
increase the total market for air pollution measurement instrumentation.
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2. SUMMARY
This report presents an analysis of the domestic market for air
pollution instrumentation for the period 1971-1980.*
The market for air pollution instrumentation during the decade
of the 70's has been determined as part of a project being conducted by
Esso Research and Engineering Company for the Office of Air Programs of the
Environmental Protection Agency. This project has as its primary objective
the delineation of a federal research and development plan for air pollution
measurement instrumentation. One part of this project involved a market
analysis to assess the opportunities available and thus the contribution
to this R/D program that might be expected from the private sector in
providing the measurement instrumentation required to assure the ability
of this nation to conduct an effective air pollution control effort.
The market for three different areas requiring instruments to
obtain information on the concentration level of air contaminants is dis-
cussed. These include: monitoring of the ambient air quality level,
measurement of the emissions from stationary sources of air pollution,
and measurement of the emissions from the automobile. The market for
these areas of instrumentation is based on a review of instrumentation
requirements at the federal, state, and local level and on an analysis of
current legislation and air pollution control codes.
The scope of the market analysis has been limited to the sensors
required to detect and measure air contaminants and special hardware re-
quired to obtain the sample. We have specifically excluded from our market
estimate the quantity and value of telemetering equipment and the cost of
instrument maintenance. The analysis also excludes the market for instru-
mentation needed for the research and development programs which will sup-
port the Nation's air pollution control program. The dollar value esti-
mates presented in this report include, where appropriate, a device to
record the pollutant concentration level.
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
The market for ambient air quality level measurement equipment
has been divided into two basic types of air monitors. The automatic
and continuous, sample-analyzer monitors produce numerical and/or graphi-
cal information directly. The non-automatic or Intermittent monitors
employ collection devices and separate laboratory facilities for subse-
quent analysis of the sample.
* The work reported here was performed under Contract No. CPA 22-69-154
for the Office of Air Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The statements and conclusions presented are those of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Environmental Protection
Agency.
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In this study of the market for ambient air quality monitoring,
we have considered only instrumentation required for the following air con-
taminants: particulates, sulfur dioxide, oxidants, carbon monoxide, hydro-
carbons, oxides of nitrogen, fluorides, polynuclear organic matter, and
odors.
The market for continuous air quality monitors during the
decade, while impressive in terms of the total number of new instruments
required, is fragmented into many different analyzers each with a rela-
tively small market.
TABLE 1
SUMMARY: CONTINUOUS AMBIENT AIR
QUALITY LEVEL MONITOR REQUIREMENTS
Analyzer
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
Oxidants (Ozone)
Polynuclear Organic Matter
Odors
Automatic Tape Soiling Index
Particulate
Fluorides
Instrumentation Market 1971-1980 (Units)
Initial Replacement Total
671
626
744
722
950
814
380
867
386
570
380
750
510
650
660
570
620
.110
425
1421
1136
1394
1382
1520
1434
490
1292
386
570
380
Non-automatic air monitors will be a significant part of the
total agency requirements for ambient monitoring. These monitors have
the potential tc be an effective means for providing a reasonable defini-
tion of air quality over urban areas as well as background pollutant levels
in less polluted portions of the country. Requirements in this area in-
clude:
TABLE 2
SUMMARY: NON-AUTOMATIC AMBIENT AIR
QUALITY LEVEL MONITOR REQUIREMENTS
Market 1971-1980 (Units)
Collection Devices
Gas Collector
Devices
Dust Fall Collector for
Settleable Particulates
High Volume Sampler for
Suspended Particulates
Initial
16838
6713
7233
Replacement
9578
5643
5383
Total
26416
12356
12616
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Stationary Source Emission Measurements
The stationary source emission measurement market that tv«a been
estimated is based on measurements that the author anticipates will be
made by industry and by the control agencies under current air quality
legislation and legislative trends. The stationary source emission mea-
surement instrumentation estimates have been based on discussions with
representatives of selected industries and on an analysis that has con-
sidered: legislation, AP codes and the magnitude of the air pollution
problem for a particular industry.
This market estimate for stationary source emission measurement
instrumentation includes instrumentation for continuous source monitoring
of the following air contaminants: particulates, sulfur dioxide, oxides
of nitrogen, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and fluorides. Instrumentation
requirements for these source emission measurements are expected to be a
major fraction of the total source emission instrumentation market during
the decade, although additional markets, which were not considered in
this analysis, can be expected for measuring other air pollutants which
are emitted from stationary sources.
Instrumentation needs in the stationary source emission measure-
ment area include:
TABLE 3
SUMMARY; STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION MONITORING REQUIREMENTS
Instrumentation Market 1971-1980 (Units)
Analyzer Initial Replacement Total
Particulates 18800 5120 23920
Sulfur dioxide 3935 1075 5010
Carbon monoxide 2705 1840 4545
Hydrocarbons 4755 825 5580
Nitrogen oxides 9760 2110 11870
Fluorides 505 165 670
In addition, a market exists for 500 instruments to remotely measure the
emissions from stationary sources.
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Auto Emission Measurements
The potential market for auto exhaust emission measurements
assumes the adoption of an annual nation-wide auto exhaust measurement
program. The agency instrumentation requirements were estimated using
two possible alternate inspection testing procedures. The first alternate
involves an extrapolation of the state inspection lanes that would be re-
quired to inspect on a once-a-year basis each vehicle in the United States
using the plans and inspection lane requirements of the State of New Jersey
as a model. The second alternate involves the use of state franchised auto
emission inspection facilities. Each auto emission inspection alternative
investigated suggests a major instrumentation requirement.
TABLE 4
SUMMARY: AUTO EXHAUST EMISSION
INSPECTION TESTING REQUIREMENTS*
Instrument Market 1971-1980 (Units)
Analyzer Initial Replacement Total
Carbon monoxide 4240 2968 7208
Hydrocarbon 4240 2968 7208
Nitrogen oxides 4240 2544 6784
Particulates 4240 -- 4240
The auto emission measurement market also includes the purchase
of measuring instrumentation by the service area segment for use by
service stations and auto repair facilities to adjust the auto emission
control devices of those automobiles that have been found to be unaccept-
ably high polluters during the state inspection. This market segment
provides an opportunity for the development of a low cost combined hydro-
carbon-carbon monoxide instrument to measure auto exhaust emissions. In
the mid to late seventies a nitrogen oxides instrument may also be required
for the same market.
* The estimates presented in Table 4 are based on conducting the auto
exhaust emission measurements in state inspection lanes. The estimate
of the total auto emission measurement market if inspection testing
is conducted in state franchised auto emission inspection facilities
is given in Tables 28 and 30.
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TABLE 5
SUMMARY: AUTO EXHAUST EMISSION
SERVICE AREA REQUIREMENTS
Market 1971-1980 (Units)
Analyzer Initial Replacement Total
Hydrocarbon-carbon monoxide 176000 35200 211200
(combined analyzer)
A small market also exists for industry purchases of instrumen-
tation to conduct end-of-the-line emission quality assurance testing.
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Dollar Value of the Market
The market amounts to nearly one half billion dollars during the
coming decade, some 76% of which represents initial purchases of air ,
pollution measuring equipment. Industry will be the major purchaser of
instrumentation accounting for 45% of the market. The market is heavily
oriented towards stationary source emission measurement instrumentation,.
this area accounting for 51% of the total instrumentation market value.
TABLE 6
ESTIMATE OF AIR POLLUTION INSTRUMENTATION
MARKET TOTAL VALUE 1971-1980
(Millions of Dollars)
Ambient Level
• Agency (CAM)
• Agency (Non-Automatic)
Stationary Source Emission
• Industrial
• Agency
Auto Emissions "
• Agency
• Service Area
• Industry
Initial
Purchase
25
J.2
37
167
25
192
47
87
3
137
Replacement
17
—8.
25
46
5
51
19
18
1
38
Totals
42
20
62
213
30
243
66
105
4
175
TOTALS
366
114
480
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Time Frame for the Market
Timing appears to be a critical factor in the market with each of
the three areas of measurement reaching maturity at different periods during
the decade. The ambient air quality level monitoring market is expected to
reach maturity about 1975 and the auto emission measurement instrumentation
market about 1977, while the stationary source emission measurement in-
strumentation market will continue to grow throughout the decade.
FIGURE 1
TIME FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION MARKET
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3. INTRODUCTION
The ability of this Nation to conduct an effective air pollution
control program requires the means to measure the extent and level of air
contaminants. The Office of Air Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency
has sponsored a project with Esso Research and Engineering Company, under
Contract No. CPA 22-69-154, to define those research and development efforts
required to insure the timely availability of instrumention and analytical
techniques needed to economically meet measurement needs in air pollution
control. This project has as its primary objective the delineation of a
federal plan for air pollution instrumentation and analytical techniques
research and development during the time period 1972-1975. A secondary
objective of this project involved a market analysis to assess the oppor-
tunities available and thus the contribution that might be expected from
the private sector in providing measurement instrumentation required to
conduct an effective air pollution control effort. This report presents a
study of the markets for air pollution measurement instrumentation for the
time period 1971--1980. The study has been based on an analysis of cur-
rent legislation, control plans, and recent trends in an effort to define
the potential needs in the air pollution measurement area. It is recog-
nized that these needs may be abruptly influenced by decisions of key
individuals who control supporting resources or determine policies that
affect their application.
Previous Studies OP. the Market
Several studies have already been made of the market for air
pollution measurement instrumentation. Most of these studies have been
conducted for individual clients or as multi-client studies and are not
available to the general public. These private studies include:
Organization Making the Study Date of Study
Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison 1967, 1969
(Management Consultants)
200 Park Avenue
New York, N.Y. 10017
Attn: Andrew Kazarinoff
Frost & Sullivan Yearly
179 Broadway
New York, N.Y. 10007"
Attn: Joseph Levy
Predicasts, Inc. 1968
10550 Park Lane
University Circle
Cleveland, Ohio 44106
Attn: Roy Ginsburg
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Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Acorn Park
Cambridge, Mass. 02140
Attn: Heinz Beutner
197Q
Stanford Research Institute*
Menlo Park, California
1970
There has been very little information published in the open
literature concerning the magnitude of the market for air pollution
measurement instrumentation. The information that has appeared includes:
Information on the Market for Air Pollution
Instrumentation Appearing in the Open Literature
Source
Date
Prediction
Optical Spectra
March 1970, p. 17
Wall Street Transcript 13 October 1969
Wall Street Transcript 1 December 1969
Chemical & Engineering
News
19 August 1968,
p. 20
Air pollution measurement equip-
ment sales of $50 M in 1975
a) 50% per year growth rate for
air pollution measurement
equipment between 1970-79
b) Expenditure by government
agencies on air pollution
measurement equipment of
$20 M in 1972
Auto pollution measurement
equipment sales in N. America
of $4 M in 1969 and $10 M in
1970
1969 expenditure for air and
solid waste control Instruments
of $8 M by industry and $16 M
by government
Instrument market reported as part of the Electronic Industry Survey.
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4. AMBIENT AIR QUALITY LEVEL MEASUREMENTS
Ambient air quality is the quality of the air that we all
breathe. The air quality level is the result of the emission of pollu-
tants from a wide variety of discrete stationary and mobile
sources of emissions, superimposed upon a background level which includes
major emissions of some of these same pollutants from natural sources.
Wide variations in the ambient air quality level exist in different
regions of the Nation as a result of differing local concentrations of
discrete sources and the presence of geographical formations and climato-
logical conditions which enhance or hinder the dispersive forces of the
atmosphere. This section of the report is concerned with the type and
quantity of instrumentation which will be required to measure the ambient
air quality level throughout the United States.
Characteristics of the Market
The market for instrumentation to measure the ambient air
quality level is an existing market. For some specific air pollution
agents, such as S02, a portion of the initial purchase market has
already been met, but by far the major purchases in this market seqment
will be made during the next few years. In arriving at the market
estimate four parameters have been analyzed:
(1) Legal basis for measurement requirements
(2) Users of instrumentation
(3) Pollutants requiring measurement
(A) Instrumentation requirements
Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements: The Clean Air
Amendments of 1970*, like previous federal legislation, requires the
states to implement plans to achieve established air quality standards.
In some urban regions of the Nation, existing air pollutant levels are
still above the desired air quality standards and it is necessary to
monitor the ambient air quality level to determine the progress of the
implementation plan in achieving clean air and to measure trends in air
quality.
The 1970 Amendments provide federal funds to match air pollution
control agency expenditures for establishing, improving and maintaining
programs for implementation of national air quality standards (lla). The
state implementation plan must include provisions for establishment and
operation of appropriate devices necessary to monitor data on ambient air
quality (lib). The author interprets these sections of the amendments as
encouraging and financially supporting ambient level measurements.
Historically, the federal government and the states have long
been active in air quality measurement—the federal program having been
initiated in 1953 as the National Air Sampling Network (NASN) and state
programs having been initiated prior to 1961 in California, Maryland,
Massachusetts, Texas, New York and Washington.
* The "Clean Air Amendments of 1970"—P.L. 91-604 (December 1970) will
be referred to hereafter as the 1970 Amendments.
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The establishment of state implementation plans, first required
by the Air Quality Act of 1967, has provided emergency measures to protect
the health and welfare of the populace during periods of acute air pollu-
tion caused by adverse climatological factors—the so-called air pollution
episodes. Such emergency measures have required a real-time measurement
capability to enable swift and effective measures to reduce air pollution
when levels dangerous to health occur.
Users of Instrumentation; Ambient air quality measurement is
predominantly a government responsibility, shared between the federal,
state and local levels. Industry has offered some market for ambient air
quality measurement during the latter half of the 1960's, partly because
of regulations by local air pollution control agencies that required a
specified number of ambient monitors around a new plant site.
Pae trend in new legislation appears to be toward stricter enforcement
and measurement of industrial emission at the industrial sources and this,
in the author's opinion, should preclude any sizeable investment by indus-
try in ambient air quality measurement instruments. The industrial market
for ambitut air quality level measurement instrumentation has been assumed
negligible for the remainder of the decade.*
Pollutants Requiring Measurement: The reason for controls on
the emission of pollution agents from various discrete sources, whether
they be stationary or mobile, is to achieve an acceptable level of air
quality for a particular air pollutant. One can, therefore, expect that
it will be necessary to measure the ambient air quality level for all
air pollution agents or combinations of agents which have been identified
as injurious to health and welfare. The air pollution agents identified
at this time include
Class I: Particulates (Total mass and fine particu.late)
Sulfur oxides (S02, 803 and H2S04 mist)
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
Carbon monoxide
Oxidants (including ozone)
Oxides of nitrogen (N02, NO)
Lead
Odors (including sulfurous odors, amines, and or-
ganic acids)
Polynuclear organic matter
Fluorides
* Contrary views on the Industrial market for ambient air quality level
measurement Instrumentation have been put forth. These views reflect
a sharp increase in industry's utilization of ambient air monitors to
assess the plant's contribution to the air quality of the community.
If these views are borne out the quantity of ambient air quality monitors
required during the decade could be twice that estimated in this report.
The reader is referred to the article on Pollution Measurement Instrumenta-
tion in the February 15, 1971 issue of Chemical and Engineering News for
one discussion of these differences.
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Class II: Arsenic
Chlorine gas
Hydrogen chloride
Copper
Manganese
Nickel
Vanadium
Zinc
Barium
Boron
Chromium
Selenium
Pesticides
Radioactive substances
Asbestos
Beryllium
Cadmium
Mercury
The listing of pollution agents has been divided into two classes only as
a matter of convenience for subsequent analysis of the instrumentation
market. The pollution agents in Class I include those agents whose
presence in the ambient air is widespread through the United States.
These agents are accordingly expected to be widely measured through the
federal, state and local monitoring networks.
The pollution agents in Class II, while of concern to health and
welfare—in fact the last four named agents are regarded as hazardous
materials—normally are associated with local deteriorations of air
Duality and will be monitored on a limited basis. An estimate of the
market for instrumentation to measure the Class II pollution agents has
not been made for this analysis.
Instrumentation Requirements; The measurement of ambient air
quality levels will require two distinct types of measuring instrumentation.
Continuous measuring instrumentation will be required to provide real-time
information on the concentration level of specific pollution agents so that
control agencies can implement their emergency action plans when the air
quality level approaches a predetermined level judged particularly danger-
ous to health.
Continuous air monitoring instrumentation for this application
has been identified with providing real-time information, both these
designations having been responsible for past misconceptions of the needs
in this area of measurement. Real-time information in this connotation
refers to information that is available sufficiently fast to provide timely
guidance for action by control agencies. For all pollution agents, informa-
tion is most likely not needed in less than five minutes-, for nitrogen oxides,
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oxidants, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxides, it should probably not lag
behind the actual air quality level by more than 10 or 15 minutes. In
this connotation, continuous air monitoring refers to periodic repeti-
tions of the measurement at intervals not to exceed the time period in
which the information provided by the measurement can be utilized.
Measurements will also be required to provide information to
determine the trend in ambient air quality level for each pollutant.
This type of instrumentation will supplement the continuous air monitoring
instruments and will enable air quality levels to be economically moni-
tored, even in those areas currently at or within acceptable standard
levels. This type of instrumentation will often operate at extremely low
levels of ambient air pollutants and will attain the required sensi-
tivity by integrating the sample over a period of time. The integrated
sample will periodically be returned to a laboratory for analysis as is
currently done with gaseous bubber collection systems and the Hi-Vol
suspended particulate collectors.
The development of new and improved instruments that can follow
the trend in pollution concentration could radically change the future
method of trend measurements. It may be possible to obtain instruments
that can be read in the field and reset for operation during a subsequent
time period. It is not expected that development of a continuous monitor-
ing instrument with the requisite sensitivity to be capable of measure-
ment at trend levels would be a major factor in this market as the need
for continuous information in regions where trend measurement will be
widely applied is not apparent.
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Method Used to
Estimate the Market
This section of the report describes the method used to estimate
the market for ambient air quality level measurement instrumentation. The
estimates for continuous air monitoring instruments and for the trend in-
dicating instruments will be described separately.
Continuous Air Monitoring Instruments (CAM)
The market for continuous air monitoring stations was estimated
by considering parameters which might be involved in determining the
number of stations required to adequately measure the air quality level in
a given control region—a station is a complex containing one or more
instruments and associated hardware. Parameters investigated included:
population of the region; value added by manufacturing as a measure of
industrial activity; area of the region; population density; number of
cities in the region with population exceeding a given level; number of
cities in the region with value added by manufacturing exceeding a given
level; and expenditures by local governments for hospital and health as
an indication of concern for public health.
Historical data and future plan? J~ u' for state and local air pollu-
tion control agencies in the Middle Atlantic States and in California
were analyzed. Little correlation was found between the number of
continuous air monitoring stations and those factors related to geographi-
cal area, population density, or industrial concentration. As the geo-
graphical size of the regions increased, a correlation with total popu-
lation was evident.
TABLE 7
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATION REQUIREMENTS^
Population Stations per
Region State Local* Total M (1960) M Population
N.Y. (State) 50 10 60 16.8 3.6
N.J. (State) 22 — 22 6.0 3.7
Pa. (State) 25 17 42 11.3 3.7
Cal. (State) 15 35 50 15.9 3.1
* Local category includes monitoring stations operated under the directions
of municipal governments.
(1) Continuous air quality measurement instrumentation requirements for
these regions has been based partly on references 13 to 20.
-------
- 16 -
For the purposes of this analysis a state and local govern-
mental control agency requirement of 3.7 CAM stations per million
population has been used for a total of 750 installed stations during
the decade. The federal network which will supplement this network has
been estimated at 175 stations^3).
Continuous air monitoring stations have the responsibility for
monitoring ambient air quality levels and it has been assumed that each
station would have instrumentation to measure the nine widespread
pollutants: particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbons, oxidants, carbon
monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, polynuclear organic matter, lead and odors.
Odor instrumentation is expected to consist of instruments sensitive to
a particular chemical species characteristic of local odor problems,
e.g., mercaptans, hydrogen sulfide, amines, or acrolein. Oxides of
nitrogen measurement will likely continue to require two distinct
measurements, one for nitrogen dioxide (N02) and the other for nitric
oxide (NO) . The probability of each station in the state and local
governmental networks installing instrumentation to measure each
pollutant, is assumed to be unity for the first six named pollutants
and somewhat lower for the remaining three. The federal government
operated CAM stations are assumed to measure all named pollutants.
Trend Indication Instrumentation
Trend indication instrumentation has been referred to in the past
by various names: manual monitoring, mechanized non-automatic devices and
simple instrumentation. All of these designations are adequate to describe
certain devices which are normally included in trend indicator networks
although a particular device may not be adequately described by a single
designation. For the purpose of this analysis trend indicator instruments
are intermittently operated collection devices which require separate.
laboratory facilities for analysis of the sample.
A trend indicator air quality monitoring station can be expected
to consist of static and mechanized collection devices. Static devices
will include sulfation rate collectors for sulfur dJoxide and dustfall
buckets to measure settleable particulate. The mechanized collection
devices will include bubblers or equivalent collectors for the gaseous
pollutants covered by national air quality standards and hi vol samplers
for the determination of suspended particulates.
The number of trend indication instrumentation Installations is
baaed on "publiahed" estimates by the National Air Pollution Control
Administration (now EPA) of the number of sampling stations required In
order to provide a reasonable definition of the air quality over urban
areas, as well as background pollutant levels in less-affected portions
of the country. EPA has estimated a need for 10,000 sampling stations,
-------
- 17 -
of which 8,000 would be employed in the 231 standard metropolitan
statistical areas (la,5a). The federal network would account for
approximately 1,000 stations. Assuming that nearly 10% of the total
station requirement will be met by continuous air monitoring stations,
the required number of trend indicator stations has been placed at
9,000 units, of which nearly 1,000 would be used in the federal
network.
Replacement Market
The estimated replacement market for ambient air quality level
monitoring instrumentation has been based on an expected life for this
type of instrumentation. It has been assumed that continuous air quality
level monitors will be replaced between years 5 and 10 following their
purchase, i.e., an effective life cycle or 7 or 8 years for the instruments.
Lacking additional information we have further assumed a cumulative
replacement between years 5 and 10, as shown in Table 8. Replace-
ment market has been estimated by applying this cumulative replacement
rate to the initial instrument purchases.
TABLE 8
REPLACEMENT MARKET ASSUMPTIONS FOR
AMBIENT AIR QUALITY LEVEL MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
Year Since Cumulative Replacement
Installation of Instrument %
5 0
6 30
7 50
8 60
9 70
10 90
The cost of this replacement program has been compared with historical
trends which indicate that as an agency matures the percentage of its total
operating budget which is spent on total equipment is perhaps no more than 3%
Information to support this value is given in Figure 2, which is based on
a limited sample of information obtained from the records of the Control
Agency Development Division, National Air Pollution Control Administration (now EPA)
Based on an estimated expenditure no greater than 3% of total budget for
instrumentation and assuming that very shortly into the decade we will
achieve an expenditure for air pollution control of 50c per capita by con-
trol agencies, we estimate that agency funding available for replacement and
upgrading of ambient_level measurement instrumentation will amount to an
average of about $3 M a year in the period of 1974-1980.
-------
- 18 -
FIGURE 2
EXPENDITURES BY CONTROL AGENCIES ON EQUIPMENT*
*J C
O 0)
H e
ex
^•H
O O
c cr
o w
to
< ^
o
0) K
co D
ro a-i
u -H
c -r
V C
•) O
V-i C.
4) X
ft, u;
60
iv
10
\.
I
2468
Years Since Inception of Agency
10
Hanket Estimates
This section of the report presents the estimated market for
ambient air quality level monitoring instrumentation during the period
1971-1980. Tables 9 to 13 present the basis and the estimate for the
continuous air quality monitor market and Tables 14 and 15 present
similar data for trend indication instrumentation.
*Data for this graph supplied by the Control Agency Development Division,
National Air Pollution Control Administration (now EPA).
-------
- 19 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 9
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Estimate of lumber of Stations Required
State & Local Station Requirement
Basis: 3.7 stations per 1 million population (1960) (a)
U.S. population (1970) 206 million (b)
Estimate of total no. of stations required:
3.7 x 206 = 762
Federal Station Requirement
Basis: 150-200 Stations (c)
Total Station Requirement Estimate Used for this Analysis
State & Local Stations - 775
Federal Stations - 175
950
Sources: (a) This study - Table 7
(b) Survey of Current Business, U.S. Dept. Commerce, August 1970.
(c) Reference la
-------
- 20 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 10
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Instrumentation Currently Installed (Estimates for June 1970) (a)
State & Local
Analyzer Agencies Federal Total
Sulfur Dioxide 235 44 279
Nitric Oxide 117 17 134
Nitrogen Dioxide 189 17 206
Carbon Monoxide 218 10 228
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon — — (Z)
Oxidan'-.:: 122 14 136
Polynuclear Organic Matter — — (Z)
Odors (b) 83 — 83
Automatic Tape Soiling Index 367 7 374
I'articulate Total Mass -- — (Z)
Fluorides -- -- (z)
(a) Source: Reference 2, p. 6.
(b) Odor instruments listed above include only H S analyzers.
(Z) Less than 25 instruments are estimated to be in use.
-------
- 21 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 11
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Replacement Market for Continuous Air Monitoring Instrumentation
Analyzer
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
Oxidants (ozone)
Polynuclear Organic Matter
Odors
Automatic Tape Soiling Index
Particulate Total Mass
Fluorides
Estimated Date of Estimated Replacement
Installation of 95% Market 1971-80
of Initial Purchases (% of Initial Purchases)
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1974
1975-6
1974
1978
1977
70
60
60
60
60
60
30
40
*
0
0
* Assumes automatic tape soiling index analyzers will be replaced by
particulate total mass analyzers.
-------
- 22 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 12
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Typical Station Instrumentation Requirement
Assumed Parameters for
Market Analyzers
No. of
Instruments
Analyzer per Stz
Sulfur Dioxide (SO ) 1
Nitric Oxide (NO) 1
Nitrogen Dioxide (N02) 1
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 1
:ion-Me thane Hydrocarbon 1
Oxidants (a) 1
Polynuclear Organic Matter 1
Odors (b) 2
Automatic Tape Soiling Index 1
Particulate Total Mass (c) 1
Fluorides 1
(a) Ozone measuring instruments are assumed to replace oxidant analyzers
during market study period.
(b) Odor instruments will measure specific chemical species common to
Local odor emissions.
(c) Instrumentation to determine total mass of particulate in ambient
air are assumed to replace automatic tape soiling index analyzers
during market study period.
Probability
of Station
Having Analysis
1
0.8
1
1
1
1
0,4
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.4
Instrument Cost*
(per Unit)
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
750
3000
4000
* The reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82 , for a dis-
cussion of probable instrumentation cost.
-------
- 23 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 13
CONTINUOUS AIR MONITORING STATIONS
Estimate
of Instrumentation Purchases 1971-80
Instruments
Required
Analyzer (a)
Sulfur Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Non-Methane Hydrocarbon
Oxidants (ozone)
Polynuclear Organic Matter
Odors
Automatic Tape Soiling Index
Particulate Total Mass
Fluorides
(a) Source: This study - Table
(b) Source: This study - Table
950
760
950
950
950
950
380
950
760
570
380
9.
10
Instruments
Currently
Installed Initial
(b) Purchases
279 671
134 626
206 744
228 722
950
136 814
380
83 867
,374 . 386
570
380
Replacements
Market Total
(c) Purchases
750 1421
510 1136
650 1394
660 1382
570 1520
620 1434
110 490
425 1292
386
570
380
(c) Replacement market assumes complete replacement of currently installed instruments
and fractional replacement of initial purchases.
-------
- 24 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 14
TREND INDICATION INSTRUMENTATION
Total Station Requirement Estimate(a);
Federal stations - 1000
State and Local stations - 8000
Probable Station Instrument Components;
Collection Device
Gas Collection Devices (b)
Dust Fall Collector for
Settleable Particulates
High Volume Sampler for
Suspended Particulates
Probability
No. per of Station
Station Having Device
2
1
1
1
Assumed Cost *
For
Market Analysis
(per unit)
$500
50
500
(a) Source: Reference 1 - p. 75.
(b) Assumes a device for collecting (and analyzing) 24 hour samples
will be required for two gaseous pollutants, probably SO and NO,
'*- A
*Tbe reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
discussion of probable instrumentation costs.
-------
- 25 -
Ambient Air Quality Level Monitoring
TABLE 15
TREND INDICATION INSTRUMENTATION
Collection Devices Currently Installed;
Collection Device
Gas Collection
Devices
Dustfall Collector
High-Volume Sampler
No. of Devices Installed
As of June 1969(a)
Federal
435
270
293
State & Local
727
2017
1474
Total
1162
2287
1767
Market Estimate: 1970-80 (Units)
Collection Device
Devices Currently Initial Replace- Total
Required Installed Purchases merits (b) Market
Gas Collection
Devices
Dustfall Collector
High-Volume Sampler
18,000
9,000
9,000
1162
2287
1767
16,838
6,713
7,233
9578
5643
5383
26,416
12,356
12,616
(a) Source: Reference 2, p- 6.
Cb) Replacements based on complete replacement of currently installed
devices and 50% replacement of new purchases.
(cJ> Gas collection devices currently installed to obtain 24 hour samples
of S02, N02, and oxidants.
-------
- 26 -
BLANK PAGE
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- 27 -
5. STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION MEASUREMENTS
Stationary sources of air pollution consist of discrete sources
of air pollution that are recognized as significant contributors to the
deterioration of local and regional air quality. This section of the
report is concerned with the type and quantity of instrumentation which
will be required to measure the emissions from these sources at the point
of emission.
Characteristics of the Market
The market for stationary source emission measurement instrumenta-
tion is an emerging market, i.e., the need for such instrumentation is only
beginning to be appreciated. This emergent nature of the market makes the
prediction of the market size during the decade of the 1970's a difficult
and uncertain undertaking. The market estimated in this report has required
a fair number of assumptions which will be discussed in the following sec-
tions. In arriving at the market estimate, four parameters have been
analyzed:
(1) Legal basis for measurement requirements
(2) Industries potentially affected
(3) User of instrumentation
(4) Pollutants requiring measurement
Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements; The 1970 Amendments
speed up the air quality standard setting procedure by requiring the
designation of National Ambient Air Quality Standards by the Federal govern-
ment. The states have the responsibility for establishing the implementation
plans to meet these standards. The 1970 Amendments require that the state
implementation plan provide requirements for installation of equipment by
owners of stationary sources to monitor emissions from such sources and for
periodic reports on the nature and amounts of such emissions(lie). This pro-
vision of the 1970 Amendments suggests an increasing market for instrumenta-
tion to be used by the owner or operator of the stationary source to monitor
his own emissions.
The 1970 Amendments also provides for New Source Performance
Standards. The new source performance standards are designed to insure that
new stationary sources are operated so as to reduce emissions to the minimum
(llf). The performance standards would be applied to new sources of air
pollution in specific industries (the industries affected will be discussed
in a later section). The pollutants considered in this analysis are those
expected to be covered by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency may for the purpose
-------
- 28 -
of implementing the standards of performance for new stationary sources
or to enable him to determine whether such source is in compliance with
the new source performance standards require the owner or operator of
any emission source to install, use and maintain monitoring equipment
or methods and sample such emissions at such intervals, and in such a
manner as the Administrator shall prescribe (lid).
The 1970 Amendments also establishes emission standards for
hazardous agents. These hazardous agents are expected to include asbestos,
beryllium, cadmium and mercury (6c). This analysis does not consider the
potential market for instrumentation that may be used for measurement of
these hazardous agents (llg).
The 1970 Amendments also provide for a procedure under which the
States shall submit a plan which establishes standards for existing sources
for those air pollutants for which air quality criteria have not been
issued or which is not included under national air quality standards or
hazardous pollutants but to which a standard of performance would apply
if such existing source were a new source (lie).
Users of Instrumentation; The users of stationary source measure-
ment instrumentation consist of two major groups: control agencies and
pollutant emitters. The control agencies require stationary source measure-
ment instruments to carry out their responsibility to periodically monitor
stationary sources to determine if emissions comply with the established
emission standards. Instrumentation for the application should be portable
and be able to be rapidly installed at the source.
The owners or operators of emission sources will require instru-
ments to fulfill their responsibility to install and use monitoring equip-
ment as required by state implementation plans. It is expected that this
monitoring requirement will be extended to include both eixsting sources
(lid) in industries covered by new source performance standards and new
sources covered by the Federal new source performance standards (lie).
State requirements for industry to install such monitoring instrumentation
will reduce the need for extensive monitoring of source •missions by control
agency inspectors, monitoring which would otherwise by required to Insure
that source emissions were being maintained at standard levels. Instrumen-
tation for this monitoring will not be required in all cases; in some
instances, periodic sampling of the effluent, followed by laboratory analysis
of the sample, will suffice for obtaining a record of emissions. It is
expected, however, that Industry will more than be able to justify the cost
of continuous monitoring instruments by savings in sampling and laboratory
analysis time. Continuous monitoring Instrumentation will also double as
a means of providing information to adjust and control the emission control
technology that will be Installed to reduce emissions.
-------
- 29 -
Industries Potentially Affected; Industry sources expected
to be subject to the provisions of the new sources performance standards
in the 1970 Amendment include:*
Cement manufacturing
Coal cleaning operations
Coke byproduct manufacturing
Cotton ginning
Ferro alloy plants
Grain milling and handling operations
Gray Iron foundries
Iron and steel operations
Nitric acid manufacturing
Nonfetrous metallurgical operations (e.g., aluminum reduction,
copper, lead and zinc smelting)
Petroleum refining
Phosphate fertilizer manufacturing
Phosphoric acid manufacturing
Pulp and paper operations
Rendering plants (animal matter)
Sulfuric acid manufacturing
Soap and detergent manufacturing
Municipal incinerators
Steam electric power plants
Lime manufacturing operations
Petroleum storage facilities
Asphalt batching plants
Other chemical plants
Carbon black manufacturing
Industrial boilers
Commercial-institutional heating plants
Residential heating plants
Other incinerators
Several additional industry sources which were not included in
this market analysis are also being considered for new source performance
standards. These include:
Animal feed defluorination plants
Chlorine and caustic plants
Brass and bronze refining
Phosphorus reduction plants
Petrochemical plants
Paint and varnish plants
Graphic arts industry
* Some of these industry sources have been suggested for new source
performance standards by the administration (6d), while additional
sources have been assumed for this analysis.
-------
- 30 -
Pollutants Requiring Measurement; The pollutants that may
require measurement fall into three groups. The first group includes
those pollutants for which national ambient Air Quality standards have
been issued or that the author assumes will be issued during the decade.
For these pollutants, the states will establish as part of their
implementation plan emission limitations on source emissions for all
existing facilities and the federal government will specify emission
limitations for new sources as part of the new source performance
standards for selected industries. For this analysis these pollutants
are assumed to be:
Total suspended particulates
Sulfur dioxide
Non-CH. hydrocarbons
Carbon monoxide
Polynuclear organic matter
Fluorides
Lead
Odors
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitric oxide although not covered under national ambient air quality
standards will be considered under this group for analysis of the market
for stationary source emission measurement instrumentation. Nitric oxide
is the prevalent form of the oxides of nitrogen from many stationary
sources and after leaving the stack is oxidized further to nitrogen
dioxide which is measured in the ambient atmosphere.
The second group of pollutants are those pollutants being
considered for coverage by hazardous agent emission standards. These
include:
Asbestos
Mercury
Beryllium
Cadmium
The third group of pollutants includes those air pollutants
not presently covered or expected to be covered by national ambient
air quality standards or defined as hazardous agents but which could be
designated for new source performance standards or as hazardous agents.
These include:
Arsenic
Chrlorine gas
Hydrogen chloride
Copper
Manganese
Nickel
Vanadium
Zinc
-------
- 31 -
Barium
Boron
Chromium
Selenium
Pesticides
Radioactive substances
Method Used to Estimate the Market
In estimating the market for stationary source emission measure-
ment instrumentation, the lack of historical data on which to base an
extrapolation of future trends has necessitated many assumptions concerning
future measurement application. This section of the report discusses the
assumptions that have been made in arriving at the market estimate for
stationary source emission measurements.
Indus try Requirements; The assumptions required in estimating
the market for stationary source emission measurement do not involve what
pollutants are to be measured or which emitters potentially will be re-
quired to make measurements but involves rather what degree of measurement
will be required. In this analysis, measurement is assumed to be required
only after emission control mechanisms are installed. This assumption is
based upon Che premise that the prime value of the measurement instru-
mentation will be to obtain information either to assist in the operation
of the control equipment and/or to determine if the control equipment is
performing in a manner to enable the emission standards to be met.
The procedure followed in making the assessment of the stationary
source emission market began with the assembly of an inventory of station-
ary sources and industry growth rate information. This inventory has been
based primarily on previously issued federal government documents,
particularly "The Cost of Clean Air, 2nd Report" (8) and the "National
Emissions Standards Study" (9). Additional information has been obtained
from the "Inventory Data on Specific Types of Emission Sources" prepared for
Esso Research and Engineering Company by the management consultant firm of
Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison. The inventory of stationary sources is
presented in Table 16 and includes, when information has been available, a
listing of the individual units at a given source. In many cases only
information on the number of plant sites is available and our use of plant
sites, in these instances, rather than operating units is expected to
result in an underevaluation of the total market for stationary source
measurement instrumentation.
-------
- 32 -
Several potential air pollutant emission sources have not been
includes in the listing of sources, notably electric arc furnaces, induc-
tion furnaces, crucibles and reverberatory furnaces located in the foundry
industry. These sources and others which may be considered by EPA for
emission control by means of the New Source Performance Standards
represent a potential additional market for instrumentation which is not
included in this report.
The source inventory and industry growth rate data were then
used to prepare Table 17, an estimate of both the present number of
sources and the additional new sources expected during the decade. New
sources, in this connotation, represent a generic class of facilities that
can lead to an increase in the total number of point sources of pollution
and includes new plants as well as major capacity increases at current
plants. The number of new facilities has been estimated using published
estimates of the anticipated industry growth during the seventies. This
published information is available as projected industry capacity increases
and requires a judgement as to future plant size to arrive at the desired
number of new pollution sources. While no specific industry information
was available for this analysis regarding future plant size trends, the
assumption was made that plant sizes would increase, resulting in fewer
new sources at which measurements would be required.
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- 33 -
BLANK PAGE
-------
TABLE 16
Cement Kilns
Petroleum Refineries(g)
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel Industry
Gray Iron (Cupolas)
Steel(e)
Pig-iron (f)
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Co t ton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
INVENTORY OF STATIONARY SOURCES AND INDUSTRY
GROWTH RATES
Historical Data
No. of
Sources
,ng Units (d) 1,751
180
) 22k
113
24
19
1,929
909
225
30
667
65
4,448
51
618
11,147
72
259
350
73
920
1,069
213
135
Year
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1967
1968
1968
1968
1968
1967
1967
1968
1967
1963
1968
1968
1968
1967
1967
1968
1968
1967
1967
Reference
c
b
b
b
b
b
c
c
c
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
a
Industry
Growth-Rate (i)
1970-80
80
50
30
80
30
15
45
45
45
35
100
20
N.A.
20
15
15
100
65
65
65
N.A.
0
45
-------
TABLE. 16 CONTINUED
INVENTORY OF STATIONARY SOURCES AND INDUSTRY GROWTH RATES
Industry
Historical Data Growth-Rate ( b)
No. of 1970-80
Sources Year Reference %
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching 1,500 1967 a
Aluminum 24 1968 b 90
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper 20 1967 b
Lead and Zinc 76 1967 b
Petroleum Storage 29,664 1968 a
Group III
Industrial Boilers 307,000 1967 a
Commercial-Institutional Heating
Plants 999,000 1967 a
Residential Heating Plants 58,000,000 1967 a '
Municipal Incinerators 465 1967 c ^
Other Incinerators(h) 13,300 1968 c i
(N.A.) - Information not available.
(a) "The Cost of Clean Air" 2nd Rept. of the Secretary DHEW, Senate Doct. 91-65, April 27, 1970.
(b) "National Emissions Standards Study," Senate Doct. 91-63, April 27, 1970.
(c) Stevenson, Jordan and Harrison. "Inventory Data on Specific Types of Emission Sources," March 1969.
(d) Coal and/or oil steam generating units, 294 of which have a generating capacity of 200 MW or greater.
(e) Includes 62 Basic Oxygen Furnaces and 544 open hearths and 303 electric arc furnaces.
(£) Totals include blast furnaces only.
(g) These petroleum refining sources include 118 catalytic crackers.
(h) Includes incinerators in schools containing over 1400 pupils and in apartment houses containing
over 100 dwelling units.
(i) The industry growth rate is given as a percentage increase in the production capacity and is
taken from the "National Emissions Standards Study," Senate Doct. 91-63, April 27, 1970, page 82,
unless otherwise noted.
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- 36 -
TABLE 17
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF STATIONARY SOURCES
Estimated
Present Sources
1970
Estimated
New Sources
1970-80
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron (Cupolas)
Steel
Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
1750
300
220
120
41
.1800
900
225
180 (a)
60
40
60
10
400
200
75
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering Plants
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
32
700
68
4000
54
700
11500
80
235
350
75
900
1050
213
135
1500
25
20
75
30000
5
400
10
0
10
90
(b)
50
120
200
40
(b)
(b)
80
50
20
(b)
(b)
(b)
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators(c)
300000
1000000
60000000
495
14000
(b)
(b)
(b)
450
(b)
(a) Estimated from 138 gigawatt increase in fossil fueled steam electric power
generating capacity during the decade and an average generating unit size of
750 MW. Data from Tables 38 and 46 from reference No. 10.
No estimate has been made for the number of new sourro.s.
-------
- 37 -
The next step in the assessment of the stationary source
measurement instrumentation market required a determination of which
industries were likely to have to measure their emissions. As the
policy regarding measurements at the source of emissions has yet to be
formulated, we were required to make a judgement of those industries
which are likely candidates for stationary source measurement instrumentation•
In making these judgements we have assembled data on the emissions
of selected pollutants for the industries previously listed and on the
number of specific source locations in each industry. We then calculated
for each source and pollutant the percentage of the total U-S. stationary
source emission of a given pollutant that is due to the industry as a
whole and the average emission of the pollutant per source. The information
on industry emissions was obtained from the "National Emission Standards
Study"(9) and "The Cost of Clean Air, 2nd Report"(8). Much of the
information on industry emissions is not yet available and has resulted
in many blank entries in Table 17. Once detailed information on industry
emissions is available from current and planned EPA studies, additional
industries may be candidates for routine monitoring of stationary source
emissions.
The method used provides an indicator of both the national
and local air quality deterioration which would be associated with
uncontrolled emissions. From the value of these parameters potential
candidate industries for routine emission monitoring were selected.
Any source-pollutant combinations that represented a high local emission
rate or high national total emissions were judged candidates for routine
measurement. This resulted in selecting as candidates for measurement
instrumentation only a relatively small fraction of the sources and
pollutant combinations that are likely to be controlled. Tables 18-A
through 18r-E present a tabulation of Industry emissions, average
emissions per source, and our estimate of the candidates for measurement
for the six pollutants considered in the stationary source measurement
instrumentation market analysis.
-------
TABLE 18-A
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
PARTICULATES
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
As % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel ^
Pig-Iron |
5530
870
85
630
60
84
190
1700
26.7
4.2
0.4
3.0
0.3
0.4
0.9
8.2
17.0Cb)
4.9
0.4
5.6
2.5
4.4
0.1
12.3tc)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap end Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
103
160
94
30
275
1122
50
259
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.1
1.3
5.4
0.2
1.2
60
450
0.3
2.1
3.4
0.2
1.4
0.01
5.4
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.1
3.3
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Part
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
OO
I
-------
TABLE 18-A Continued
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
PARTICULATES
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Organic Chemicals
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Heating Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
522
92
48
3000
105
314
136
2.5
0.4
0.2
14.4
0.5
1.5
0.7
0.3
3.8
0.5
0.3
Part
Yes
Yes
VO
I
Part
Part
No
Yes
Part
(a) Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
(b) Based on 325 plants of 100 MW or greater generating capacity. Reference 9, Table 2.2.
(c) Based on 138 plants, reference 9, Table 2.2.
-------
TABLE 18-B
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS^
SULFUR DIOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurements
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
15,000
2,100
84
2,950
903
600
590
49.
6.8
0.3
9.6
2.9
1.9
1.9
46.0
9.4
0.7
155.
43.
Part(c)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
o
I
9.2
Yes
2.8
Yes
-------
TABLE 18-B Continued
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
SULFUR DIOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yir.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurements
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
0.2
2.-2
Yes
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
Part
Part
No
No
No
Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
Based on 325 plants of 100 MW or greater generating capacity. Reference 9, Table 2.2.
Assumes a substantial number of electric power plants will switch to low sulfur content fuels.
-------
TABLE 18-C
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONSCa)
CARBON MONOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurements
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferroua Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
2030
2600
'11 J
J
3500
75
6.8
8.7
11.7
0.3
9.1
23.0
Yes
Yes
2.1
0.5
Yes
No
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
28S
1.0
9.5
Yes
-------
TABLE 18-C Continued
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
CARBON MONOXIDE
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of This
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
Yes
(a) Emission data obtained from reference 8. Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
-------
TABLE 18-D
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS
HYDROCARBON
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
1950
16.6
8.7
Yes
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
1500
12.8
23.1
Yes
-------
TABLE 18-D Continued
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
HYDROCARBON
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
1100
9.3.
0.04
Part
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
1500(b)
12.6
Yes
No
(a) Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
Includes all solid waste disposal.
-------
TABLE 18-E
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
Candidate for
Measurement
Instruments
for Continuous
Monitoring
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
2975
37.7
9.1
Yes
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
No
110
23
21
1.4
.1.5
Yes
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
No
No
-------
TABLE 18-E Continued
INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS(a)
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Industry
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
1000 T/Yr.
Industry Emission
as % of Total U.S.
Stationary Source
Emissions of this
Pollutant
Average
Emissions
of this
Pollutant
Per Source
1000 T/Yr.
(Continued)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Industrial Boilers 2800
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators 16
Other Incinerators
35.4
0.2
Part
Part
No
(a) Emission data obtained from reference 8, Tables 3.2 and 3.8, and reference 9, Table 2.1.
-------
Having selected potential candidates for continuous measurement
instruments, it was then necessary to make an assumption concerning the
number of instruments which might be applied at a given source. Estimating
this number cannot be based solely on the current emission points (stacks,
vents, etc.) at existing facilities. As emission control equipment is
installed—and we have previously assumed that application of measurement
instrumentation will follow the control equipment—the reduction of emission
points by combining existing emission points into a common control system(s)
should occur to the maximum extent consistent with plant efficiency and
safety.
It is also necessary to make a judgement concerning the fraction
of industry sources selected as potential candidates for measurement instru-
ments that will in fact ever install measuring instrumentation. There are
various reasons why these industry sources might not install measuring
instrumentation. These include plant locations in air pollution control
regions that do not require monitoring and for a relatively small number
of older sources shutting down the facility rather than installing the
necessary emission control equipment required to comply with the standards.
In this analysis the estimated average number of monitors per
source, as shown in Tables 19-A to 19-E, is a composite number which
includey our estimates of the fraction of facilities which will indeed
install monitoring equipment and the number of instruments which might be
required at a given source.
One additional type of market remaining to be included in the
analysis is the replacement market. The useful life of instrumentation
for application at stationary sources of pollutant emissions is assumed
to average five years before replacement is required. The often severe
environmental conditions in which the instrumentation will have to operate
should result in a shorter useful life for this type of instrumentation
relative to instruments used for ambient air quality measurements. In
the absence of sufficient information to arrive at a yearly replacement
market, the total replacement market during the decade has been assumed
at 40% of the total initial purchases during this period. This replacement
market is also shown in Tables 19-A to 19-E.
Control Agency Requirements; The last category of instrumentation
included in the stationary source measurement instrumentation market analysis
is the purchase of instrumentation by governmental control agencies to
achieve a capability to monitor stationary sources to determine compliance
with established air pollution codes. The requirement for control agency use
is assumed to average two instruments per agency for each pollutant and
additional quantities of instruments for the larger state and local agencies.
Based on the 235 air pollution control regions that have been designated as
of January 1971, this assumption results in an agency requirement of 500 instru-
ments for each of the major gaseous air pollutants associated with stationary
sources of emission. A higher number of particulate measurement instruments
(750) and a smaller number of fluoride measurement instruments (50) have been
assumed in order to reflect the number of emission sources.
-------
- 49 -
One additional type of source emission measurement .technique
which must be considered for control agency compliance measurements during
the decade is remote instrumentation. Remote instrumentation permits the
"in-situ" sampling of the effluent plume from a stack while enabling the
detection to occur at a distance physically removed from the stack. This
technique promises to be a powerful tool for spot-check compliance measure-
ments. Although considerably more expensive than conventional emission
measurement instrumentation the potential savings in manpower suggest con-
siderable use of this technique by the major agencies. We have assumed for
this analysis that half of the control agencies will have two instruments for
remote measurement of gaseous pollutants and two instruments for remote measure-
ment of particulate pollutants. This assumption results in a demand for
approximately 500 remote source measurement instruments.
-------
TABLE 19-A
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
PARTICULATES
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
ants 0.8(a)
3
2
1
1
0.8
1
ices) 1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Estimated
InsLr. for
Existing
Sources
1200
500
400
120
- 40
1450
800
200
29
120
50
600
70
220
300
70
200
120
Estimated
Instr. for
New
Sources
200
180
100
120
10
400
200
80
6
20
10
90
50
120
100
40
80
50
Total
Initial
Purchase
1971-80
1400
680
500
240
50
1850
1000
280
35
140
60
690
120
340
400
110
280
170
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for
Existing Sources
1971-80
600 (b)
210
200
100
15
650
350
80
15
50
20
200
35
100
150
30
90
55
Total
Market
(Units)
2000
890
700
340
65
2500
1350
360
50
190
80
890
155
440
550
140
370
225
-------
TABLE 19-A Continued
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
PARTICULATES (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors Estimated " Estimated Total
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial
Source Existing New Purchase
(Average) Sources Sources 1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for Total
Existing Sources Market
1971-80 (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
0.25
1
1
350
25
90
150
20
20
500
45
110
120
10
40
620
55
150
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
1500
2000
400
500
1500
2000
450
500
3000
4000
950
1000
600
800
200
200
3600
4800
1150
1200
(a) Assumes all currently installed power generating units of 200 MW or greater capacity currently have adequate particulate
measurements and that 80% of currently installed units less than 100 MW will be candidates for measurement.
(b) Includes additional 300 instruments for replacement of currently installed particulate measurement instrumentation In
generating units of 200 MW or greater capacity.
-------
TABLE 19-B
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
SULFUR DIOXIDE
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
Estimated
Instr. for
Existing
Sources
Estimated
Inscr. for
Nev?
Sources
Total
Initial
Purchase
1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for
Existing Sources
1971-80
Total
Market
(Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills*
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
0.5
2
2
2
900
400
200
70
200
80
120
20
1100
480
320
90
350
160
50
30
1450
640
370
120
Ln
N>
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
30
35
10
45
400
160
560
100
660
* Instrument will also measure H^S and mercaptans.
-------
TABLE 19-B Continued
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
SULFUR DIOXIDE
(Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors Estimated Estimated Total
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial
Source Existing New Purchase
(Average) Sources Sources 1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for Total
Existing Sources Market
1971-80 (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
200
50
250
75
325
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
200
200
100
100
300
300
50
50
350 w
350 '
-------
TABLE 19-C
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
CARBON MONOXIDE
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
Replacement
Estimated Estimated Total at 40% of
Instr. for Instr. for Initial Instr. for Total
Existing New Purchase Existing Sources Market
Sources Sources 1971-80 1971-80 (Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron
0.2
200
120
400
40
60
400
240
180
800
80
50
1300(a)
320
230
2100
Ol
*-
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
30
35
10
45
-------
TABLE 19-C Continued
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
CARBON MONOXIDE (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors Estimated Estimated Total
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial
Source Existing New Purchase
(Average) Sources Sources 1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for Total
Existing Sources Market
1971-80 (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
I
Ul
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
400
450
950
200
1150
(a) Includes replacement of all currently installed instruments.
-------
TABL.E 19-D
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
HYDROCARBONS
Estimated
Number of
Monitors Estimated Estimated Total
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial
Source Existing New Purchase
(Average) Sources Sources 1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for Total
Existing Sources Market
1971-80 (Units)
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-Iron
600
100
700
200
900
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
135
20
155
50
205
-------
TABLE 19-rD Continued
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
HYDROCARBONS (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
Replacement
Estimated Estimated Total at 40% of
Instr. for Instr. for Initial Instr. for Total
Existing New Purchase Existing Sources Market
Sources Sources 1971-80 1971-80 (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
0.05
1
1500
300
500
200
2000
500
100(a)
100
2100
600
I
in
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
1
0
450
450
900
175
1075
(a) Low replacement value reflects favorable operational conditions for instrumentation monitoring hydrocarbon emissions
at petroleum storage and transfer locations.
-------
TABLE 19-E
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Estimated
Number of
Monitors
Per Existing
Source
(Average)
Replacement
Estimated Estimated Total at 40% of
Instr. for Instr. for Initial Instr. for Total
Existing New Purchase Existing Sources Market
Sources Sources 1971-80 1971-80 (Units
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-Iron
0.8
1400
300
1700
400
-------
TA&LE 19-E Continued
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
OXIDES OF NITROGEN (Continued)
Estimated
Number of
Monitors Estimated Estimated Total
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial
Source Existing New Purchase
(Average) Sources Sources . 1971-80
Replacement
at 40% of
Instr. for Total
Existing Sources Market
1971-80 (Units)
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
200
100
300
50
350
Industrial Boilers
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators
Other Incinerators
1500
2000
1500
2000
3000
4000
600(D
800(1)
3600
4800
i
v_n
vD
-------
TAELE 19-F
ESTIMATED PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION: 1970-1980
Estimated
Number of Replacement
Monitors Estimated Estimated Total at 40% of
Per Existing Instr. for Instr. for Initial Instr. for Total
Source Existing New Purchase Existing Sources Market
FLUORIDE (Average) Sources Sources 1971-80 1971-80 (Units)
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid i
Phosphate Fertilizers e
Manufacture 1 200 100 300 100 400
Granulation .
Phosphoric Acid 1 70 ^O 110 30 140
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum 1 25 20 45 10 55
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
-------
- 61 -
Market Estimates
This section of the report presents the estimated market for
the purchase of stationary source emission measurement instrumentation
during the period 1970-1980. Tables 20 and 21 summarize the market estimates
for both the initial and total purchases during the decade and Tables 22 and
23 present a more detailed breakout of the market for monitoring instruments.
The market analysis includes instrumentation required for monitoring
stationary source emissions for the following air pollutants: particulates,
sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and fluorides,
The analysis does not include potential instrumentation needs for measurement
of polynuclear organic matter, lead and odors. At this time, the approach to
measurements of polynuclear organic matter and odors has not been sufficiently
defined to enable realistic projections of needs. It is conceivable that odor
measurements, if made at the source of emission, could be based on measuring
specific chemical species or classes of compounds associated with odors from
a particular source. This could result in a decrease in the number of sulfur
dioxide measuring instruments and their replacement with an instrument capable
of measuring hydrogen sulfide (H?S) and mercaptans in addition to sulfur
dioxide.
This analysis of the market does not include the potential market
for instrumentation to measure the emission of hazardous agents. It also
does not include the market for pollutants not presently covered or expected
to be covered by either national ambient air quality standards or as hazardous
agents (see third group of pollutants on page 30).
The market analysis does not include the sales of measurement
instrumentation to support the extensive research, development and demon-
stration programs which will be required to develop air pollution control
technology.
The market analysis also contains a category called sampling
devices and accessories, which includes probes, sampling trains and other
accessories required to obtain a sample from a stationary source of emission
and lead the sample to the measuring instruments. The average number of
sampling devices required has been assumed at 0.5 units per source at which
measurements are required, irrespective of the number of different pollu-
tants to be measured. This average takes into account that many of the in-
struments developed for stationary source emission measurement will include
a sampling system integral to the instrumentation, thereby eliminating the
requirement for separate sampling devices.
-------
TABLE 21
TOTAL PURCHASE OF STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION
(Summary Table)
Part. SO. NO HC CO F
2 x
Monitoring Ins truraents
Total Industrial 22870 4310 11170 4880 3845 595
Control Agencies 1050 700 700 700 700 75
Total Market 23920 5010 11870 5580 4545 670
Part. Gaseous Pollutants
(UNITS)
Sampling Devices
& Accessories
1150C
500
12000
N>
1
Remote Instruments 250
250
-------
TABLE 20
INITIAL PURCHASE OF
Part.
Monitoring Instruments
Total Industrial 18050
Control Agencies 750
Total Market 18800
Part.
STATIONARY SOURCE MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION (UNITS)
(Summary Table)
Sampling Devices
SO. NO HC CO F & Accessories
2 x
3435 9260 4255 2205 455 8500
500 500 500 500 50 350
i
u>
3935 9760 4755 2705 505 8850
Gaseous Pollutants
Remote Instruments
250
250
-------
TABLE 22
INITIAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
1971 -1980 (UNITS)
(Detailed Table)
Part.
SO,
NO
HC
CO
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
(Copper, Lead
and Zinc)
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
1400
680
500
240
50
1850
1000
280
1100
480
320
90
1700
700
240
180
800
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
35
140
60
690
120
340
400
110
280
170
35
35
155
260
300
110
560
-------
TABLE 22 Continued
INITIAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
1971- 1980 (UNITS)
(Detailed Table)
Part.
SO,
NO
HC
CO
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
500
45
110
45
250
300
2000
500
Industrial Boilers 3000
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants 4000
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators 950
Other Incinerators 1000
300
300
3000
AOOO
900
950
-------
TABLE 2_3
TOTAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
1571-1980 (UNITS)
(Detailed Table)
Part.
SO,
NO
HC
CO
Steam-Electric Power Plants
Cement Plants
Petroleum Refineries
Kraft-Pulp Mills
Non-Ferrous Smelters
(Copper, Lead
and Zinc)
Iron-Steel
Gray Iron Foundries
Steel
Pig-iron (Blast Furnaces)
2000
890
700
340
65
2500
1350
360
1450
640
370
120
2100
900
320
230
2100
Carbon Black
Coal Cleaning
Coke (By-Product)
Cotton-Ginning
Ferro-Alloy
Grain Milling
Flour Mills
Elevators
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizers
Manufacture
Granulation
Phosphoric Acid
Rendering
Soap and Detergent
Sulfuric Acid
Lime
50
190
80
890
155
440
550
140
370
225
45
45
205
320
400
140
660
-------
TABLE 23 Continued
TOTAL PURCHASES OF STATIONARY SOURCE MONITORING INSTRUMENTATION
1971-1980 (UNITS)
(Detailed Table)
Part.
S0_
NO
HC
CO
Asphalt Batching
Aluminum
Secondary Non-Ferrous
Copper
Lead and Zinc
Petroleum Storage
Other Chemicals
620
55
150
55
325
350
2100
600
Industrial Boilers 3600
Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants 4800
Residential Plants
Municipal Incinerators 1150
Other Incinerators 1200
350
350
3600
4800
1075
1150
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- 68 -
6. MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION MEASUREMENTS
Mobile sources of air pollution consist of discrete sources of
air pollution that are recognized as significant contributors to the
deterioration of local air quality, particularly in urban areas and along
the interstate freeways. In common with stationary sources of pollution,
they are discrete sources but they have their own special characteristics
which require special measurement tools and techniques to monitor their
emissions. This section of the report is concerned with the type and
quantity of instrumentation which will be required to measure the emissions
from mobile sources, particularly the automobile.
Characteristics of the Market
The market for mobile source emission measurement instrumenta-
tion is a latent market,!, e. , the need for such instrumentation is evident
but a market for instrumentation must await the development of suitable
measurement hardware and testing procedures. In estimating the market for
Lhis class of measuring instrumentation, the following market character-
istics have been analyzed:
(1) Measurement requirements
(2) Legal basis for measurement requirements
(3) User of instrumentation
Measurement Requirements; The need for mobile source emission
measurement instrumentation is tied to a program to control the emissions
from mobile sources of air pollution, particularly the automobile.
Measurement instrumentation provides a means to ascertain that control
devices attached to vehicles and engines achieve emission levels consistent
with established emission standards.
The emission standards for automotive vehicle/engine emissions
have been designated to cover three air pollution agents: carbon monoxide,
hydrocarbons and the oxides of nitrogen. In addition, the market analysis
assumes the eventual control of particulates from automotive vehicles/
engines. Federal emission standards currently cover the first two named
rollutants and oxides of nitrogen emission control will be mandatory in 1972
The author has assumed for this analyst* that participate emission control will
be mandatory in 1975.
These standards are expressed in terms of the weight of pollutant emitted
per mile the vehicle is driven. Since the emissions of a given pollutant
changes greatly under different driving conditions, such as idling, cruis-
ing and acceleration, a measurement to establish whether the emission
standards are being met must be coupled to a test cycle that accurately
reproduces the average driving pattern or as an alternative the measure-
ment could be accomplished during a road test of the vehicle. The large
number of discrete sources of emissions, some 103 million vehicles in
1968, has thus far precluded measurement on the road. The federal govern-
ment, as well as certain state air pollution control agencies, have taken
the lead in developing appropriate test cycles and sampling procedures
which would enable measurements of emissions taken with the vehicle at a
-------
- 69 -
fixed location to reflect whether the emissions were in compliance with
the established standards. These cycles have, in most cases, used a
dynamometer (a form of inertia wheel) on which the vehicle is placed to
provide engine loadings representative of on-the-road driving patterns.
Some work has also been done to develop correlation between emissions re-
corded under engine idle and high-speed revolution without loading and
the on-the-road emissions. Clearly the test cycle and sampling procedure
that is selected will determine the required measurement instrumentation
parameters of response time and concentration level of pollutant to be
measured .
i
Legal Basis for Measurement Requirements; The Air Quality Act
and state ^ir pollution codes have provided considerable guidance to what
type of measurements will most likely be required on emissions of air
pollution agents from the automobile. The 1970 Amendment places great
emphasis on measurements of automotive emissions. This discussion of the
legal basis for measurements is based on the 1970 Amendments. j
The 1970 Amendments provide for four separate checks ;on the
emissions from the automobile vehicle/engine which will require measurement
of emissions. These are certification testing, surveillance testing,
quality assurance testing and inspection testing. Certification testing
is applied to new vehicles/engines while surveillance testing and Inspec-
tion testing are applied to vehicles in general use.
Certification and surveillance (llh and 111) testing will be
primarily federal government responsibilities and while they will involve
extensive emission testing they will be applied to a relatively small sample
population of vehicles/engines and will not represent a major market for
mobile source emission measurement instrumentation.
The current California state air pollution code requires that
new motor vehicles entering the state after 1970 be measured for emissions
by the manufacturer *o ascertain that they conform with the state auto-
motive emission standards. The 1970 Amendments authorize testing to deter-
mine that production models meet the emissions levels for which prototype
vehicles/engines were certified during the federal certification tests (llj).
The periodic inspection of vehicles in general use to determine
if they continue to meet that emission standards under which they were
certified is not currently required by legislation except for surveillance
testing of a relatively small population sample by the federal government.
Air pollution codes in several states require such periodic testing once
technically feasible methods of testing are developed and some states, such
as New Jersey and California, are conducting demonstration test programs to
develop and prove the worth of such methods. The 1970 Amendments provide
-------
- 70 -
for grant funds to assist the states in developing and maintaining a
periodic inspection program to determine the compliance of velilclj^s and .
emission control systems with the automotive emission standards. In addi-
tion, the 1970 Amendments require that the state plans to implement air
quality standards in their regions include to the extent necessary and
practicable an approach for periodic inspection of motor vehicle* in
general use (11 m).
Users of Instrumentation; The users of mobile source emission
measurement instrumentation fall into three sections of the economy:
governmental control agencies, the automotive industry, and the automotive
service and repair area.
Governmental control agencies, at the state and local level, will
be responsible for the periodic inspection of vehicles in general use. In
this responsibility, they, or agents to whom they designate this responsi-
bility, will be the customers for inspection instrumentation and systems.
The automotive indstry will probably be responsible .for conducting assembly
line inspection testing of vehicles/engines. The automotive service and
repair area is regarded as a customer for auto emission monitoring instru-
mentation to provide measurements in support of services required to return
vehicles and control devices that have failed the periodic inspection to an
operational condition that will meet the emission standards.
Method Used to
Estimate the Market
This section of the report will consider the method used to
estimate the market for mobile source emission measurement instrumentation
for each of the three sectors of the market identified in the previous sec-
tion.
Periodic Inspection of Vehicles in General Use
The periodic inspection of vehicles in general use will be per-
formed either by a state or by some group to whom it delegates this authority.
It seems reasonable to assume that such periodic measurements will be com-
bined with the highway safety inspection programs and that the measurements
will be performed either in a state operated vehicle safety inspection
facility, such as those operated by New Jersey, Delaware, and the District
of Columbia or in an automotive repair or service facility that currently
is licensed to conduct the periodic state highway safety inspection.
In estimating the number of inspection facilities required to con-
duct an adequate periodic inspection of vehicle emissions, it has been
assumed that a minimum of once a year inspection will be required. Once a
year inspection is average for the highway safety inspection program, and
we have already indicated that it is likely that the auto emission inspection
will be tied to existing highway safety inspection programs.
-------
- 71 -
In estimating the market, we have considered two alternative
auto exhaust emission inspection procedures. The first alternative pro-
vides a lower boundary on the number of facilities and hence the number of
instruments required by calculating the number of state operated inspec-
tion facilities that would be required to inspect on a once a year basis
every motor vehicle registered in the United States. This calculation
involved extrapolating the existing plans of the State of New Jersey for
automotive inspection. The New Jersey plan would involve installing one
set of measurement devices in each of the state's current 78 auto safety
inspection lanes. One such measurement system has been in operation for
the past year and four additional systems are being installed to obtain
additional operating experience before a final decision is reached on the
state auto emissions inspection program in mid-1971. The current average
length of time that a motor vehicle takes to traverse the New Jersey highway
safety inspection program is 90 seconds and it does not seem likely that a
meaningful auto emission program could be conducted in less than this
elapsed time period. Based on New Jersey's automobile registration of
3,448,000 units in 1969 and a total U.S. registration of 104,702,000 units
in the same year, a nationwide minimum of 2,450 inspection complexes was
calculated. This minimum value was increased to 2,850 inspection complexes to
account for a sparcer automotive population in some parts of the U.S.
which would require a larger number of inspection facilities per unit
vehicle population. This represents the probable number of inspection com-
plexes needed to meet current auto emission inspection requirements. Using an
estimate U.S. automotive registration of 153,000,000 units in 1980, an
additional one-thousand inspection complexes will be required during the
decade.
Each inspection complex is assumed to contain instrumentation
capable of measuring the four pollution agents for which we have assumed
auto emission standards will be designated and a dynamometer or other suit-
able device to subject the vehicle/engine to a load consistent with the test
cycle that is selected.
The second alternative involves conducting similar periodic inspec-
tions in a facility, such as an automotive service station or repair facil-
ity, licensed by the state to conduct the automotive emission inspection.
We estimate that such an inspection procedure would increase the number of
emission inspection facilities required per unit vehicle population by several-fold,
Adjustment and Repair of
Automotive Emission Control Devices
A periodic automotive emission inspection program is unlikely un-
less it is accompanied by regulations requiring correction of faulty vehicles,
engines and emission control devices. These corrections will require monitor-
ing instruments to enable a repair or service facility to make adjustments to
the vehicle and/or control devices which will enable them to meet the emission
standards.
-------
- 72 -
This analysis of the market assumes that repair or service facil-
ities will only purchase instrumentation to measure the level of hydro-
carbon and carbon monoxide emissions in automotive exhaust. The measurement
of these two pollutants could be valuable in reducing emissions by providing
information needed to improve engine adjustments. Instruments that enable
both of these pollutants to be measured are currently available at
$800-1000 per unit. We have assumed that no instrumentation will be re-
quired by repair or service facilities for measuring nitrogen oxide emissions,
although a market for instruments to measure this pollutant could develop
if the devices installed for nitrogen oxide emission control are amendable
to service station adjustment.
The number of facilities who are potential customers for such
instrumentation is based on the number of automotive repair facilities and
service stations in the U.S. and the anticipated growth in this sector
assuming that the ratio of service/repair facilities per unit vehicle
population remains constant. The required emission control adjustments
are in the nature of vehicle/engine tune-ups, a capability currently
available at most repair facilities and at many service stations. The
market estimate for this sector of the market assumes 70% of the automo-
tive repair facilities and 25% of the service stations will purchase instru-
mentation to measure hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from the
automobile.
Assembly-Line Testing
The market for assembly-line testing assumes that the authority
to require the manufacturers to test new vehicle production to determine if
new motor vehicles being manufactured do in fact conform with the regula-
tions with respect to which the certificate of conformity was issued will
be applied (llj).
The initial purchase of assembly line emission test units in the
U.S. during the decade has been estimated based on the number of automotive
assembly lines in 1970, the additional new vehicle production in 1980,
the anticipated increase in assembly rate, and the number of instrumentation
complexes required per assembly line to conduct the required performance
testing. We have assumed that five instrumentation complexes will be re-
quired per assembly line; a quantity of instrumentation which will enable
performance testing of 10 to 15% of the new vehicle production using the
current 23-minute certification cycle.
Market Estimates
This section of the report presents the estimated market for auto-
motive emission measurement instrumentation during the period 1971-1980.
Tables 24 to 26 present the market for automotive emission inspection in-
strumentation using state operated facilities. Tables 27 and 28 present
similar market analysis data for an alternate inspection procedure where
the inspections are conducted in state franchised stations. Tables 29 and
30 cover the service area instrumentation requirements. Tables 31 and 32
cover the assembly line emission testing market.
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- 73 -
Table 24
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION
Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Station Requirement;
Basis; (1) Nationwide annual inspection of each motor vehicle in a
state owned and operated inspection facility.
(2) Vehicle inspection lane requirement assumed similar to
State of New Jersey highway inspection system.
78 Lanes (a) for 3,448,000 vehicles (b)
(3) U.S. motor vehicle registration
1969 104, 702, 000 (b)
1970 108,500,000(c)
1980 153,000,000(c)
Estimate of Station Requirement;
1970 78 x *°5 = 2450 stations
1980 78 x Y- = 3460 stations
Station Requirement Assumed for Market Analysis(d)
1970 - 2850 stations
1980 - 3860 stations
Source: (a) State of New Jersey
(t> ) Reference 3
(c) Reference 4
Assumes an additional 400 stations required to adequately service
less densely populated states.
-------
Table 25
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION
Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Probable Station Components;
_ Component
Sampling Device
Air I
Carb>->.) Mouuxide
Hydroca iboii
NJ t roger Oxides
Particulates
Dynamometer
No. per
Station(a)
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Probability
of Station
Having Component
Estimated *
Cost
1000
1
1
1
1
2000
2000
2000
3000
1000
(a) Assumes 10% spares as average over all facilities.
* The reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
discussion of probable instrumentation cost.
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- 75 -
Table 26
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION
Alternate I - State Operated Facilities
Market Estimate; 1971-80
Initial Replacement(a) Total
Component Purchases Purchases Market
Sampling Device 4240 2120 6360
Analyzers
Carbon Monoxide 4240 2968 7208
Hydrocarbons 4240 2968 7208
Nitrogen Oxides 4240 2544 6784
Particulates 4240 -- 4240
Dynamometer 4240 -- 4240
(a) Replacement market estimated to follow assumptions outlined in
Table 8. Assumes initial nitrogen oxide analyzer installations
by 1974 and particulates analyzer installation by 1976.
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- 76 -
Table 27
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION
Alternate II - Inspection in State Franchisee! Station
Station Requirement;
Basis: (1) Assumed maximum inspection rate of 4000 vehicles per station
per year.
(2) Nationwide annual inspection of all motor vehicles.
(3) U.S. motor vehicle registrations.
1970 108,500,000 (a)
1980 153,000,000 (a) .
Estimate of Station Requirement;
1970 108.5 M/4000 = 27,100 stations
1980 153.0 M/4000 = 35,750 stations
Probable Station Components;
Component No. Per Station Estimated Cost*
Analysers
Hydrocarbon-Carbon 1 $1000
monoxide (Combined)
Nitrogen Oxides 1 750
Sampling Device 1 200
* The reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
discussion of probable instrumentation cost.
Source: (a) Reference 4
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- 77 -
Table 28
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION INSPECTION
Alternate II - Inspection in State Franchisee) Station
Market Estimate; 1971-80
Initial Total
Component Purchase Replacements (a) Market
Analyzer
Hydrocarbon-carbon Monoxide 35,750 7,150 42,900
Nitrogen Oxides 35,750 7,150 42,900
Sampling Device 35,750 -- 35,750
(a) Replacements for analyzers assumed to be 20% of initial purchase.
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- 78 -
Table 29
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
SERVICE AREA
Station Requirement;
Basis; (1) 57,838 general auto repair shops (1967)(a).
32,898 new motor vehicle franchisee! dealers (1967) (a).
216,059 gasoline service stations (1967) (a).
(2) U.S. registered motor vehicles 1967 - 104,702,000
1970 - 108,500,000
1980 - 153,000,000
(3) Assumed participation of service area in emission control
system/device repair
70% general auto repair shops
80% new motor vehicle franchised dealers
257o gasoline service stations
(4) . Auto service area will grow at same rate as motor vehicle
registrations.
Estimate of Station Requirement;
General Auto repair .7 x 57,838 x ?' = 59,164
New motor vehicle franchised dealers .8 x 32,898 x "T' = 38,425
Gasoline service stations .25 x 216,059 x ':' = 78,862
(a) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1967 Census of Business, Construction Industry and
Manufacturing.
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- 79 -
Table 30
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
SERVICE AREA
Probable Station Components;
Estimated
Component No. per Station _ Cost *
Hydrocarbon-Carbon Monoxide 1 500
(Combined analyzer)
Market Estimate; 1971-80
Initial Total
Component Purchase Replacements (a) Market
Hydrocarbon-Carbon Monoxide 176,000 35,200 211,200
(Combined analyzer)
Note; If Alternate II for Automotive Inspection Testing (Use of State
franchised stations) was followed the initial purchase of service
area components is reduced by 35,750 components, as instrumentation
for a portion of the service area would be covered under the
automotive inspection testing category. Including replacements
the total service area market would be reduced by 42,900 units.
(a) Replacements assumed to be 20% initial purchases.
* The reader is referred to Section 7, beginning on page 82, for a
discussion of probable instrumentation cost.
-------
-.80 T-
Table 31
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
ASSEMBLY LINE EMISSION TEST UNITS
Requirement;
Basis; (1) 60-70 assembly lines in U.S. (1970)(a*.
(2) Motor Vehicle assemblies per unit time per assembly line
will increase from 1969 average of 55 vehicles per hour
to 100 vehicles per hour(b).
(3) Assembly line capacity will grow at the same rate as
projected yearly motor vehicle production rate.
(4) U.S. motor vehicle production for 1970 - 11,500,000 units(c)
1980 - 15,000,000 units(c)
(5) Assumes 5 instrumentation complexes per assembly line.
Estimate of Instrumentation Complexes
for Assembly Lines - 1980
Number of Production Assembly Rate Instrumentation Complexes
Assembly Lines x Ratio x Ratio x Per Assembly Line
1970 1970-1980 1970-1980
Instrumentation Complexes Required in 1980
65 x ——rjf x TTrrr x 5 = 232 instrumentation complexes
11. jn ±UU
Based on 57 auto assembly plants
(b) Fortune, July 1970, p. 117.
(c) Auto News, December 12, 1969.
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- 81 -
Table 32 —
Mobile Source Emission Measurement
ASSEMBLY LINE EMISSION TEST UNITS
Probable Test Unit, Components;
Same as State operated Automotive emission testing (see Table 23).
Market Estimate (1971-1980):
Initial .Total
Component Purchases Replacements (a) Marjtet
Sampling Device 232 93 325
Analyzers
Carbon Monoxide 232 93 325
Hydrocarbon 232 93 325
Nitrogen Oxides 232 93 325
Particulates 232 93 325
Dynamometer 232 93 325
(a) Replacements estimated at 40% of initial purchases.
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- 82 -
7. DOLLAR VALUE FOR THE MARKET
An estimate of the dollar value of the market for air pollution
measurement instrumentation during the period 1971-1980 is presented in
this section. The author recognizes that estimating the dollar value of
the market is an uncertain undertaking as it is extremely sensitive to the
price assumed for a unit of instrumentation. However, many of the users
of this report will find a dollar value analysis of the market useful,
and we present such an analysis clearly stating the assumptions that we
have used. The user of the report can easily change the assumed unit
price of instrumentation or other factors as he sees fit and thereby ob-
tain a new estimate of the dollar value of the market.
The probable unit price assumed for this estimate has previously
been given for ambient air quality level instrumentation (see Tables 12
and 14) and for mobile source emission measurement instrumentation (see
Tables 25, 27 and 30). Before presenting the dollar value, estimates for
the market justification for some of the assumed probable unit instrumenta-
tion prices are needed.
The probable ambient air quality level monitoring instrumentation
unit price has been assumed to be $4000 for a gaseous pollutant analyzer
including a simple recorder.* The assumed price for the gaseous pollutant
analyzer is considerably higher than the advertised price of many recently
introduced ambient air quality analyzers, although it is very close to the
advertised price of similar instruments sold by established companies in
the industry. It is our opinion that the pricing of instrumentation by
the established companies in the industry is closer to the probable future
price for ambient air quality monitoring instrumentation, and that the
price advertised by many of the new entrants to this field does not adequately
reflect the high cost of marketing the instrumentation and providing tech-
nical service to limited and widely-scattered customers each purchasing but
a few units of a particular analyzer.
A unit price of $500 has been assumed for gas collection devices
used for collecting samples of gaseous pollutants to measure trends in air
pollution. This unit price is based on current prices for a sequential
gas bubbler collection system. Improved trend measurement instrumentation
is currently under development, but present estimates of the cost of such
instrumentation is in the range of $1500-2500 per unit. We do not expect
that the funding availability for purchase of this type of equipment by
control agencies will support the required number of trend measurement in-
struments at a price much in excess of $500.
* All instrumentation prices given in this report are 1970 prices. No
attempt has been made to consider potential price increases during the
decade due to inflation or potential price decreases resulting from
technological improvements.
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- 83 -
The probable stationary source emission measurement instrumentation
unit price has also been estimated to be $4000 including a simple recorder,
but: for different reasons. Again the potential customers will be purchasing
only a few analyzers, in many cases but a single analyzer. Many more poten-
tial customers, however, are located in an area accessible to a marketing
and technical service team which should lead to a more effective sales
organization and hence lower marketing costs. These savings are offset by
the increased complexity of instrumentation capable of operating under the
adverse environmental conditions found in source emission measurement.
Even at the assumed cost for source emission measurement instrumentation,
the cost represents a relatively small value compared to the cost of the
emission abatement equipment that the measurement instrumentation will
assist to control.
Instrumentation for remotely measuring particulate or gaseous
pollutants emitted from stationary sources is estimated to cost $25,000
per unit.
The probable mobile source emission measurement instrumentation
assumed unit price is quite variable. Looking first at instrumentation
for auto exhaust emission inspection testing, we find that analyzers
covering, in many instances, a pollutant concentration level range similar
to that of stationary source emission measurement instrumentation are
priced $2000 lower. This reflects the less severe environmental conditions
in which the instrument must operate and the savings in marketing costs
associated with one-time large quantity purchases over a short time period.
The instrumentation for the service area component of the market .
is assumed to be low price instrumentation. This assumption is based on
the price that can be paid for an instrument to be used in making minor
adjustments to vehicle engines and control devices to insure an improvement
in their performance as pollution abatement systems as compared to the
probable extra charge that can be passed on to the vehicle owner.
One further danger in providing a dollar value estimate of the
market results from the long market period that we are considering
relative to the anticipated life of instrumentation. The market period of
ten years results in a considerable replacement market. Some users of this
report may want to make assumptions concerning the replacement rate for in-
strumentation that differ from those made in this analysis. In an effort
to assist these users the dollar value estimates for the market are presented
for both the total market during the decade and for the initial purchase
market.
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TABLE 33
MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION TOTAL PURCHASE
MARKET VALUE ESTIMATE: 1971-1880(a)
($1000)
Analyzers
Particulates
Sulfur dioxide
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Oxidants
Odors
Fluorides
Polynuclear organic
matter
Remote Instrumentation
Particulates
Gaseous pollutants
Sampling
Devices & Accessories
Ambient Air Quality
Level Monitoring
Trend
CAM Indicator
2000
5684
5528
6080
5576
4544
5736
5168
1520
1970
6925
13208
Stationary Source
Emission Measurement
95,680
20,040
18,180
22,320
47,480
2,680
6,250
6,250
24,000
Mobile Source
Emission Measurement
Inspection (b ) Service
and Assembly Line Area
13,690
15,066 105,600
15,066
14,218
09
•c-
11,250
43,796
20,133
242,880
69,290
105,600
(a) Total market value including initial purchases and replacements.
(b) Inspection market estimate for this table is based on state operated
emission inspection stations (Alternate I).
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TABLE 34
Analyzers
Particulates
Sulfur dioxide
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitric Oxide
Oxidants
Odors
Fluorides
Polynuclear organic
matter
Remote Instrumentation
Particulates
Gaseous pollutants
MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENTATION
INITIAL PURCHASE MARKET VALUE ESTIMATE:
1971-1980
Ambient Air Quality
Level Monitoring
CAM
2000
2684
2888
3800
2976
2504
3256
3468
1520
1520
Trend Indicator
3952
8419
($1000)
Stationary Source
Emission Measurement
75,200
15,740
10,820
19,020
39,040
2,020
6,250
6,250
Mobile Source
Emission Measurement
Inspection(a)Service
and Assembly Line Area
13,416
8,944 88,000
8,944
8,944
03
i
Sampling
Devices & Accessories
17,700
8,944
26,616
12,371
192,040
49,192
88,000
( ) Inspection market estimate for this table is based on Alternate I
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8. TIME FRAME FOR THE MARKET
The market growth rate for each of the market areas will not be
uniform over the decade. As shown in Figure 1, the market for ambient air
quality monitors and for auto emission measurement instruments should reach
maturity during the decade and begin to decrease.
Ambient Air Quality Monitoring
The market for ambient level measurement instrumentation is ex-
pected to have its period of pronounced growth in the next few years, i-each-
ing its peak in 1975, and trailing off thereafter to a replacement level
during the remainder of the decade. This estimate is based on the early
designation of control regions by the federal government which should
enable establishment of the majority of control programs within the coming
year. Following an initial period of purchasing instruments to set up their
monitorJng networks, which we estimate will be completed in 1974, we anti-
cipate that the yearly market for this area of instrumentation will, be con-
siderably reduced in the remainder of the decade.
Stationary Source Emission Measurements
The market for source emission measurement which accounts for the
•najjr segment of the total instrumentation market during the decade is
expected to have a slow but very impressive growth. The slow growth that
we postulate is based on the hypothesis that routine monitoring of stationary
source emissions will not be required until control techniques are installed.
Once control techniques are installed source emission monitoring will enable
both the tabulation and recording of the emission rate and function as part
of th:s feedback loop for pollution emission control. We expect that air
pollution control techniques will be widely installed by the end of the
decade and that the general application of source emission monitoring will
follow the technology application.
Auto Emission Measurements
As we pointed out earlier the market for auto emission inspection
and testing instrumentation is based on our assumption that the states will
conduct annual automotive emission inspections to assure that the air pollu-
tion control equipment on automobiles is in effective working order. We
estimate that the agency segment of this market will peak in 1977, although
the peak could occur anywhere in the 1975-78 period. One of the reasons
for the projected rapid growth of this market is the Increasing probability
that additional federal grant funds will be mad available to the states to
implement an inspection and testing program (11 £). Once these federal funds
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- 87 -
are made available we foresee a very short period in which the states
will establish inspection and emission testing facilities. The market
during the remainder of the decade will be limited to instrumentation
replacement and expansion of the inspection facilities.
The service area segment of the market will follow the establish-
ment of the state inspection and emission testing programs as the need for
a capability to make minor adjustments to the engine and the control devices
to insure an improvement in their performance as a pollution abatement sys-
tem is recognized. This segment of the market should reach its peak within
two years following the peaking in the agency segment of the market.
Industry purchases of instrumentation to perform emission quality
assurance testing by the auto manufacturers is expected to be completed by
1975.
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- 88 -
TABLE 35
Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
197*
1976
1977
I1; ''8
19 V9
1980
Totals
7
to
TIME
Ambient Air
Quality Level
Monitoring
3
4
7
11
12
7
3
4
5
6
62
13
FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION
SUMMARY BY MEASUREMENT AREAS
Million Dollars per Year
MARKET
Stationary Source Auto Exhaust
Emission Measurement Emission Measurement
4
6
10
14
22
27
32
38
44
46
243
51
1
3
9
15
26
30
31
26
19
15
175
36
Totals
8
13
26
40
60
64
66
68
68
67
480
100
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TABLE 36
TIME
FRAME FOR THE INSTRUMENTATION MARKET
SUMMARY BY MEASUREMENT AREAS
Million Dollars per Year
Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Totals
%
Agency
4
7
12
20
30
25
18
14
13
15
158
33
Industry
4
5
9
12
18
23
28
35
40
43
217
45
Automotive
Service Area
--
1
5
8
12
16
20
19
15
9
105
22
Totals
8
13
26
40
60
64
66
68
68
,67
480
100
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TABLE 57
TIME
FRAME FOR THE
INSTRUMENTATION MARKET
Million Dollars per Year
Ambient Air
Quality Level
Monitoring
Agency
Year^
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
I_ R
3
4
6 1
10 1
10 2
4 3
3
4
5
6
T_
3
4
7
11
12
7
3
4
5
. 6
Stationary Source Emission Measurement
Agency
L
1
2
3
5
3
3
3
3
2
R T
1
2
3
5
1 4
1 4
1 4
1 4
1 3
Industry
i
4
5
7
9
13
17
21
26
32
33
R
1
2
4
6
7
8
8
10
T_
4
5
8
11
17
23
28
34
40
43
Agency
I R
1
2
3
6
12 1
12 2
8 3
3 3
4
6
Auto Exhaust Emission Measurement
Service Area
T_
2
3
6
13
14
11
6
4
6
!_ R
1
5
8
12
15 1
18 2
15 4
10 5
3 6
1^
I
5
8
12
16
20
19
15
9
Industry
I_ R T
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
VO
O
TOTALS 37.
25
62
25
30
167
46
213
47
19
66
87
18
105
I = Initial purchases
R = Replacement purchases
T = Total purchases
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- 91 -
9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author expresses his appreciation to Dr. Robert S. Kirk,
Office of Air Programs, the EPA project officer on this project,
and to numerous individuals from the instrumentation industry and govern-
ment for the time they have spent in discussing various aspects of this
market. He especially acknowledges the contribution of Mr. Oliver Cano,
Bendix Process Instrument Division; Mr. Andrew Kazarinoff, Stevenson,
Jordan & Harrison (Management Consultants); Mr. William Orr. Monsanto
Envirochem Systems; Mr. Harold Orloff, Ethyl Corporation; and Mr. Robert
Stevens, Division of Chemistry & Physics. Environmental Protection Agency.
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- 92 -
10. REFERENCES
1. "Air Pollution Control and Solid Wastes Recycling", Part 1, Hearings
before the subcommittee on Public Health and Welfare of the Cojmittee
on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, House of Representatives 91st
Congress, Serial No. 91-49.
(a) page 75
2. "Progress in the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution", 3rd R.«port
of the Secretary of HEW to the Congress, Senate Doct. No. 91-64, 91st
Congress, 2nd Session, April 27, 1970,
3. "1970 Automobile Facts and Figures", Automobile Manufacturers Asso-
ciation, New York, N.Y.
4. Data prepared by Predicasts Inc. for Industry Week, "Industry Week",
August. 3, 1970, p. 52.
5. "Progress in the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution", 1st Report
of the Secretary of HEW to the Congress, Senate Doct. No. 92, 90th
Congress, 2nd Session, June 28, 1968.
(a) page 52
6. "National Air Quality Standards Act of 1970, Report of the Committee
on Public Works United States Senate to Accompany S.4358", Senate
Report No. 91-1196, 91st Congress, 2nd Session, September 17, 1970.
(a) pages 9, 18 and 20
(b) page 18
(c) page. 20
(d) p«ge 16
7. "Progress in the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution", 2nd Report
of the Secretary of HEW to the Congress, Senate Doct. No. 91-11, 91st
Congress, 1st Session, March 4, 1969.
8. "The Cost of Clean Air", 2nd Report of the Secretary of HEW to the
Congress, Senate Doct. No. 91-65, 91st Congress, 2nd Session, April 27,
1970.
9. "National Emissions Standards Study", Report of the Secretary of HEW
to the Congress, Senate Doct. No. 91-63, 91st Congress, 2nd Session,
April 27, 1970.
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- 93 -
10. "The Economy, Energy, and the Environment" prepared for the Joint
Economic Committee Congress of the United States, Joint Committee Print,
91st Congress, 2d Session, September 1, 1970.
11. "Clean Air Act" Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.,
December, 1970. (P.L. 91-604)
(a) Sec. 105 (a)(l)(A&B) (g) Sec 112
(b) Sec. 110 (a)(2)(C) (h) Sec. 206 (a) (1)
(c) Sec. 110 (a)(2)(F) (i) Sec. 207 (c) (1)
(d) Sec. 110 (a)(l) (j) Sec. 206 (b)(l)
(e) Sec. Ill (d)(l) (k) Sec. 2Q7 (b)(2)
(f) Sec' U1 CD Sec, 210
) Sec, 110 (aK2)(G)
12. "Air Pollution— 1970," Part 1, Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Air and Water Pollution of the Committee on Public Works, United
States Senate, 91st Congress, on S.3229, S.3466 and S.3546, March 1970.
(a) Question 4 submitted to DHEW by Senator Muskie, in letter
of April 8, 1970, and subsequent answers by DHEW. See
page 364 of this hearings report.
13. "The Air Quality Monitoring Program in New York State," Hunter, D.C.
paper 69-205, 62nd Annual Mtg., Air Poll. Control Association, New
York, N.Y., 1969.
14. "Most Advanced System of Air Pollution Monitoring,"Air Engineering,
22-24, December 1968.
15. "Monitoring Air Pollution," Pennsylvania's Health, 30(1), 18-20,
spring 1968.
16. "New York Times," December 6, 1969, p. 35.
17. "Pennsylvania's Computerized Air Monitoring System," B. A. Brodovicz, Jr.
and V. H. Sussman, J. Air Poll. Control Assoc., 19, 484-489 (July 1969).
18. "Allegheny County's Air Monitoring Program," E. L. Stockton, paper
69-207, 62nd Annual Mtg., Air Poll. Control Association, New York, N.Y.,
1969.
19. "The New York State Continuous Air Quality Monitoring System,"
Cower, D. E., Preprint 1043, ASCE Annual and Environmental Meeting,
Chicago, 111., 1969.
20. "The Aerometric Network of the City of New York," Heller, A. N. and
Ferrand, E. F., paper 69-5, 62nd Annual Mtg., Air Poll. Control
Association, New York, N.Y., 1969.
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- 94 -
ADDENDUM
While this report was at the printers, the Environmental
Protection Agency published two notices in the Federal Register which
will affect the market for air pollution measurement instrumentation.
Part II of Volume 36, No. 158 of the Federal Register,
August 14, 1971 promulgated regulations for preparation adoption and
submittal of implementation plans. In item 420.17 covering air quality
surveillance, the minimum frequency of sampling is promulgated. Two
types of measurement techniques are called for: (1) 24-hour samples
which correspond to the trend indication instrumentation described
on page 16 of this report, and (2) continuous techniques described
on page 15 of this report.
Part II of Volume 36, No. 159 of the Federal Register,
August 17, 1971 proposed standards of performance for new stationary
sources. In item 466.25, 466.53, and 466.64 continuous monitoring
of emissions from selected stationary sources is proposed.
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