REPORT FOR CONSULTATION ON THE

                       BUFFALO

             AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION
 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION,  AND WELFARE
                Public Health Service
Consumer Protection and Environmental Health Service
    National Air Pollution Control Administration

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          REPORT FOR CONSULTATION ON THE

                      BUFFALO

            AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION
 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
                Public Health Service
Consumer Protection and Environmental Health Service
    National Air "Pollution Control Administration

                   February, 1969

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              TABLE OF CONTENTS






                                      page




PREFACE	3




INTRODUCTION	4




EVALUATION OF URBAN FACTORS	12




  SUMMARY	17




EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING FACTORS	18




  SUMMARY	35




PROPOSAL	36

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                                 PREFACE


     The Secretary, Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,  is

directed by the Air Quality Act of 1967 to designate "air quality  control

regions" to provide a basis for the establishment of air quality standards

and the implementation of air quality control programs.  In addition to

listing the major factors to be considered in the development of region

boundaries, the Act stipulates that the designation of a region shall be

preceded by a consultation with appropriate State and local authorities.

     The National Air Pollution Control Administration,  DREW, has  conducted

a study of the Metropolitan Buffalo Area, the results of which are

presented in this report. The Region* boundaries proposed in this  report

reflect consideration of all available and pertinent data; however, the

boundaries remain subject to revisions suggested during consultation with

State and local authorities. Formal designation of a Region will follow

the consultation meeting. This report is intended to serve as background

material for the consultation.

     The Administration appreciates assistance received either directly

during the course of this study or indirectly during previous activities

in the Buffalo Metropolitan Area from official air pollution control  agencies
                            i
at the State and local level, and the Erie and Niagara Counties Regional

Planning Board.
*For the purposes of this report, the word region, when capitalized,
will refer to the Buffalo Air Quality Control Region. When not capitalized,
unless otherwise noted, it will refer to air quality control regions  in
genera1.

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                              INTRODUCTION


            "For the purpose of establishing ambient air quality
       standards pursuant to section 108, and for administrative and
       other purposes, the Secretary, after consultation with appropriate
       State and local authorities shall, to the extent feasible, within
       18 months after the date of enactment of the Air Quality Act of
       1967 designate air quality control regions based on jurisdictional
       boundaries, urban-industrial concentrations, and other factors
       including atmospheric areas necessary to provide adequate imple-
       mentation of air quality standards.  The Secretary may from time
       to time thereafter, as he determines necessary to protect the public
       health and welfare and after consultation with appropriate State
       and local authorities, revise the designation of such regions and
       designate additional air quality control regions.  The Secretary
       shall immediately notify the Governor or Governors of the affected
       State or States of such designation."

                                   Section 107(a)(2), Air Quality Act of 1967

THE AIR QUALITY ACT

     Air Pollution in most of the Nation's urban areas is a regional

problem.  This regional problem demands a regional solution, consisting of

coordinated planning, data gathering, standard setting, and enforcement.

Yet, with few exceptions, such coordinated efforts are notably absent among

the Nation's urban complexes.

     Beginning with the Section quoted above, in which the Secretary is

required to designate air quality control regions, the Air Quality Act

presents an approach to air pollution control involving coordinated efforts

by Federal, State, and local governments, as shown in Figure 1.  After the

Secretary has (1) designated regions, (2) published air quality criteria,

and (3) published corresponding documents on control technology and

associated costs, the Governor(s) of the State(s) must file with the

Secretary within 90 days a letter of intent, indicating that the State(s)

will adopt within 180 days ambient air quality standards for the pollutants

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  HEW designates

    air quality

  control regions.
HEW develops and
publishes air
quality criteria
based on  scientific
evidence of air
pollution effects.
 HEW prepares

 and publishes

 information on

 available control

 techniques.
States hold

hearings and

set air quality

standards  in the

air quality

control regions.
  HEW
 reviews
  State
standards.
States establish plans for implementation,
considering factors  such as:              |
  • Existing pollutant levels in the region
  • Number, location, and types of sources
  • Meteorology
  • Control technology
  • Air pollution growth trends

Implementation  plans would set forth
abatement procedures, outlining factors
such as:
  • Emission standards for the categories of
    sources in the region.

  • How enforcement will be employed to
    insure uniform  and coordinated control  '
    action involving State,  local, and  regional
    authorities.

  • Abatement schedules for the sources to
    insure that air quality standards wil! be
    achieved within a reasonable time.

                                                           HEW reviews        ]
                                                   State implementation  plans, j
                                                               I
                                                  States act to control air
                                                  pollution in  accordance with
                                                  air quality standards and plans
                                                  for implementation.
                  Figure i  Flow diagram for State action to control air pollution on a regional basis.

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covered by the published criteria and control technology documents and




adopt within an additional 180 days plans for the implementation,




maintenance, and enforcement of those standards in the designated air




quality control regions.




     The new Federal legislation provides for a regional attack on air




pollution and, at the same time, allows latitude in the form which regional




efforts may take.  While the Secretary retains approval authority, the




State(s) involved in a designated region assumes the responsibility for




developing standards and an implementation plan which includes admini-




strative procedures for abatement and control.  Informal cooperative




arrangements with proper safeguards may be adequate in some regions,




whereas in others, more formal arrangements,  such as interstate compacts,




may be selected.  The objective in each instance will be to provide




effective mechanisms for control on a regional basis.






THE SIZE OF A REGION




     Several objectives are important in determining how large an air




quality control region should be.  Basically, these objectives can be




divided into three separate categories.  First a region should be self-




contained with respect to air pollution sources and receptors.  In other




words, a region should include most of the important sources in the area as




well as most of the people and property affected by those sources.  In this




way, all the major elements of the regional problem will lie within one




unified administrative jurisdiction.  Unfortunately, since air pollutants




can travel long distances, it is impractical if not impossible to delineate




regions which are completely self-contained.   The air over a region will

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usually have  at  least  trace  amounts of pollutants from external sources.




During episodic  conditions,  such  contributions from external sources may




even reach  significant levels.  Conversely, air pollution generated within




a  region  and  transported  out of it can affect external receptors to some




degree.   It would  be impractical  and  inefficient to make all air quality




control regions  large  enough to encompass  these low-level trace effects.




The geographic extent  of  trace effects overestimates  the true problem area




which should  be  the focus of air  pollution control efforts.  Thus, the first




objective,  that  a  region  be  self-contained, becomes a question of relative




magnitude and frequency.   The dividing line between "important influence"




and "trace  effect" will be a matter of judgment.  The judgment should be




based on  estimates of  the impact  a source  has upon a  region, and the




level of  pollution to  which  receptors are  subjected.  In this respect,




annual and  seasonal data  on  pollutant emissions and ambient air concentrations




are a better  measure of relative  influence than short term data on episodic




conditions.




     The  second  general objective requires that region boundaries be




designed  to meet not only present conditions but also future conditions.




In other  words,  the region should include  areas where industrial and




.residential expansion  are likely  to create air pollution problems in the




foreseeable future. This objective requires careful  consideration of




existing  metropolitan  development plans, expected population growth, and




projected industrial expansion.   Such considerations  should result in the




designation of regions which will contain  the sources and receptors of




regional  air  pollution for a number of years to come. Of course, region




boundaries  need  not be permanently fixed,  once  designated.  Boundaries

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8




 should be reviewed periodically and altered when changing conditions




 warrent readjustment.




     The third objective is that region boundaries should be compatible




with and even foster unified and cooperative governmental administration




of the air resource throughout the region.   Air pollution is a regional




problem which often extends across several  municipal,  county, and even




state boundaries.   Clearly, the collaboration of several governmental




jurisdictions is prerequisite to the solution of the problem.  Therefore,




the region should be delineated in a way which encourages regional




cooperation among the various governmental  bodies involved in air pollution




control.  In this regard,  the existing pattern of governmental cooperation




on the whole range of urban problems may become an important consideration.




Certainly the pattern of cooperation among  existing air pollution control




programs is a relevant factor.  In general, administrative considerations




dictate that governmental  jurisdictions should not be divided.  Although




it would be impractical to preserve State jurisdictions undivided, usually




it is possible to preserve the unity of county governments by including or




excluding them in their entirety.   Occasionally, even this would be




impractical due to a county's large size, wide variation in level of




development, or striking topographical features.




     To the extent that any two of the above three objectives lead to




incompatible conclusions concerning region  boundaries, the region must




represent a reasonable compromise.  A region should represent the best




way of satisfying the three objectives simultaneously.

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PROCEDURE FOR DESIGNATION OF REGIONS




     Figure 2 illustrates the procedures used by the National Air




Pollution Control Administration for designating air quality control




regions.




     A preliminary delineation of the region is developed by bringing




together two essentially separate studies—the "Evaluation of Engineering




Factors," and the "Evaluation of Urban Factors."




     The study of "Engineering Factors" indicates the location of




pollution sources and the geographic extent of serious pollutant con-




centrations in the ambient air.  Pollution sources are located by taking




an inventory of emissions from automobiles, industrial activities, space




heating, waste disposal, and other pollution generators.  Pollution




concentrations in the ambient air are estimated from both air quality




sampling data and a theoretical diffusion model.  When it exists, air




quality sampling data is more reliable than the theoretical diffusion




model results since the data is directly recorded by pollution measuring




instruments.  Unfortunately, in many cases air quality sampling data is




available for only one or two pollutants measured at an insufficient




number of locations.  The theoretical model is used to supplement




inadequate air quality sampling data.  As a whole, the engineering study




indicates how large the air1 quality control region must be in order to




encompass most pollution sources and most people and property affected




by those sources.




     The study of "Urban Factors" encompasses non-engineering considerations,




It reviews existing governmental jurisdictions, current air pollution




control programs, present concentrations of population and industry,

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  ENGINEERING  EVALUATION
    input
 • Emissions
 • Meteorology
 • Physical Dim.
Computer
 Pollutant
 Diffusion
  Model
 Output

Iso-lntensity
  Graphs
               Existing Air
                 Quality
                Sampling
                  Data
        URBAN FACTORS

• Jurisdictional Boundaries

• Urban-Industrial Concentrations

• Cooperative Regional Arrangements

• Pattern and Rate of Growth

• Existing State and  Local Air
     Pollution Control Legislation & Programs
                                             Preliminary
                                             Delineation
                                                 of
                                              Regions
                                            Consultation
                                             with State
                                             and Local
                                              Officials
                                                Formal
                                              Designation
                                                  by
                                             Secretary-HEW
            Figure 2. Flow diagram for the designation of air quality control regions.

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                                                                    11






and expected patterns of urban growth. Other non-engineering factors




are discussed when they are relevant.  As a whole, the study of urban




factors indicates how large an air quality control region must be in




order to encompass expected growth of the pollution problem in the




future. It also considers which group of governmental jurisdictions will




most effectively administer a strong regional air quality control program.




     The conclusions of the engineering study are combined with the




results of the urban factors study to form the basis of an initial




proposal for an air quality control region- As shown in figure 2, the




proposal is then submitted for consultation with State and local officials.




After reviewing the suggestions raised during the consultation, the




Secretary formally designates the region with a notice in the Federal




Register and notifies the governors of the States affected by the




designation.




     The body of this report contains a proposal for the boundaries of




the Buffalo Air Quality Control Region and supporting studies on




engineering and urban factors. The report itself is intended to serve as




the background document for the formal consultation with appropriate State




and local authorities.

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12
                         EVALUATION OF URBAN  FACTORS






  INTRODUCTION




       A number of urban factors  are relevant to  the problem  Of defining




  air quality control region boundaries. First, the location  of population




  is an important  consideration,  since human  activity is the  ultimate cause




  of air pollution,  and  humans  are  the ultimate victims. The  population




  growth pattern is  another  important consideration, since an air quality




  control region should  be designed not only  for  the present  but also for




  the future.  The  location of Industrial activity and the industrial




  growth pattern are relevant considerations  for  similar reasons. Political




  and jurisdictional considerations are important, since the  1967 Air




  Quality Act  envisions  regional  air pollution programs based on cooperative




  efforts among many political  jurisdictions.  The following discussion of




  urban factors will present these  considerations as they apply to the




  Buffalo area.




  Population




       Figure  3 displays present  population densities in the  metropolitan




  Buffalo area. Approximately 1,700,000 people reside in the  seven-county




  area surrounding the City  of  Buffalo (Niagara,  Erie,  Orleans, Genesee,




  Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus Counties). About two thirds of these




  people reside within the County of Erie  alone.  A large part of the




  remainder lives  in Niagara County. Thus, among  the seven counties considered,




  these two have by far  the  heaviest population densities.




       Figure 4 displays expected population  growth during the  next twelve

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    Figure 3:

POPULATION DENSITY, (1968)


 Residents per Square Mile

   H|  more than 800;

   H|  400 to 800;

   !l_J  less than 400;
           20
Miles
Lake Ontario
                                                         CATTARAUGUS
                                                           COUNTY
                                                                                           NEW YORK
                                                                              PENNSYLVANIA

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        Figure  4:

POPULATION GROWTH, 1968 to 1980


    Additional  Residents Per

       Square. Mile:

          more  than  100;

      HD  50 to 100;

      ! J  less  than  50;
             20
  Miles
Lake Ontario
                                  CHAUTAUQUA
                                    COUNTY
                       CATTARAUGUS
                         COUNTY
                                                                                   NEW YORK
                                                                                               NEW YORK
                                                                                   PENNSYLVANIA

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                                                                    15


years in the Buffalo area. From 1968 to 1980, Erie County is expected


to grow by 110 additional residents per square mile, and Niagara County


by 53. In contrast, the other counties in the area are expected to


have 24 or fewer additional residents per square mile. Thus, population


is concentrated in Erie and Niagara Counties not only for the present,


but also for the foreseeable future.

Industry


     One method for determining the location of manufacturing activity


is based on the density of people employed in manufacturing firms, as


shown in Figure 5. During 1963, Erie and Niagara had 118 and 73 employees


in manufacturing firms per square mile. Adjacent counties had 18 or fewer.


Clearly, industrial activity in the Buffalo area is concentrated in Erie


and Niagara.


Existing Air Pollution Control Programs


     The air pollution control program of the State of New York has an


annual budget of approximately $3,500,000. The state statutes authorize


local air pollution control programs to exercise joint jurisdiction at


the local level. The air pollution control program of Erie County has an


annual budget of about 340,000 dollars and Niagara County about 80,000


dollars. None of the other counties in the area has a program of comparable

                           I
size. The Erie and Niagara programs have not established any joint activities


such as joint air quality measurement, joint technical facilities, or joint


enforcement of air pollution regulations. However, the two programs do


maintain informal contact. Furthermore, the programs maintain informal

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       Figure 5:

MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT

   DENSITY, 1963


 Manufacturing Employees
     Per Square Mile:

   H|  more than 100;

   HHI  50 to 100;

       less than  50;
            20
   Miles
Lake Ontario
                                CHAUTAUQUA
                                  COUNTY
                      CATTARAUGUS
                        COUNTY
                                       ORLEANS
                                       COUNTY
                                         GENESEE
                                         COUNTY
                                                                             WYOMING
                                                                             COUNTY
                                                                                 NEW YORK
                                                                                              NEW YORK
                                                                                 PENNSYLVANIA

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                                                                     17






contact with their counterpart in Canada, the air pollution control




program of Ontario.




Regional Planning in the Buffalo Area




     The Erie and Niagara Counties Regional Planning Board conducts




regional planning functions for the two-county area. It has a budget of




about 400,000 dollars, including operating expenses and grants,  and




produces plans related to land use, transportation, and other urban




services.




SUMMARY




     The evaluation of urban factors indicates that an air quality control




region composed of Erie and Niagara Counties would satisfy the objectives




outlined above for region boundaries. Population, industry, and current




air pollution control efforts are centered in Erie and Niagara Counties.




Surrounding counties are not closely linked to the Buffalo area in terms




of population, employment, or planning activities. Growth in the Buffalo




area during the next decade is unlikely  to extend beyond Erie and Niagara




Counties.

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18






                  EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING FACTORS






INTRODUCTION




     The engineering evaluation for the Buffalo area was based on a




study of topography, pollutant emissions, estimated air quality levels




and available ambient air quality data. The emission inventory indicated




the location of point and area sources, the quantity of pollutants emitted




from these sources, and the resulting emission densities. This information




was combined with meteorological data and used in a diffusion model to




estimate air quality levels in the Buffalo area. The estimated air quality




information was supplemented by measured air quality data whenever




available.






TOPOGRAPHY




     The City of Buffalo is located on the Huron Plain, about 600 feet




above sea level. This plain forms an east-west band of land along the




southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. To the south of this plain the land




rises as much as 1,000 feet more to the upland areas of the Erie Plain




and the foothills of the Allegheny Plateau.






METEOROLOGY




     Lake Eries exerts a noticeable influence on the local meteorology




and climate of Buffalo. Winds from the southwest direction, which traverse




a long unobstructed path over the Lake before reaching Buffalo, are




generally stronger than winds from other directions. The Lake tends to




act as a moderating influence on temperature changes in the air mass above

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                                                                    19






it. Especially during summer a land-sea breeze circulation of local




air occurs. Precipitation is also influenced by Lake Erie. Air traversing




the Lake acquires moisture which is then released on Buffalo due to




orographic lifting.




     The Buffalo wind rose is shown in Figure 6. It reveals the predotn-




inence of southwesterly winds in the Buffalo area. In general, air pollution




is transported towards the northeast from emission sources in the urbanized




areas of Niagara Falls and Buffalo.






EMISSION INVENTORY




     The National Air Pollution Control Administration  conducted an




inventory of air pollutant emissions for the Buffalo area. Three major




pollutants—sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, and particulates--were con-




sidered since they provide a general measure of the extent of the air




pollution problem around Buffalo.




     The Buffalo emissions inventory encompasses the counties of Erie and




Niagara. This area was divided into the grid coordinate system shown in




Figure 7. The estimated emissions of each of the three pollutants by grid




zone were expressed as average daily emissions for three different time




periods--annual, winter, and summer. Table I shows the annual-average daily




emissions.




     Annual-average emission densities for each of the three pollutants




in tons per square mile per day were determined by relating the total




quantity of pollutants emitted in each of the grid zones to the land area




of each zone. Figures 8, 9, and 10 show the resulting densities on maps.

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20
                     Figure  6: BUFFALO WIND ROSE
               SUMMER
WINTER
 10%     5
                                                                   10%
                               ANNUAL
                                                 10%

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         Figure 7:   BUFFALO GRID SYSTEM
21
\

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       22
                        Table 1:
           Emissions by Grid for the Buffalo  Study Area
                        (tons per day)
Grid
Area
of
Grid
(Square
Miles)
Sulfur
Oxides
Particulates
Carbon Monoxide
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5

 6
 7
 8
 9
10

11
12
13
14
15

16
17
18
19
20

21
22
23
24
25

26
27
28
29
30**

31
32
33
34**
35
15
69
81
2
38
3
7
10
3
8
8
155
131
10
10
31
10
10
38
10
10
10
10
6
10
10
10
131
3
10
10
10
10
10
B
•
•
•
*
7
2
9
4.
93
•
20.
1.
16.
1.
79.
37.
12.
.
300.
21
27
24
10
38
.5*
.5*
17
0
.*
53
*
0
*
7
*


70
*
1.3
12.
12.
17.
26.
37.
24.
13.
27.

36.
•

12.










25


                                        .25
                                        .25
                                        .30
                                        .04
                                        .30

                                      30.*
                                       7.4*
                                        .23
                                        .50
                                      22.*

                                        .37
                                       4.2*
                                        .60
                                      10.*
                                        .34

                                      23.*
                                      15.
                                       5.1
                                        .56
                                      46.

                                       1.2
                                       5.4
                                       5.2
                                       7.6
                                      13.

                                      15.
                                       9.5
                                       5.4
                                      14.
                               Disclosure

                                      14.
                                        .19
                               no   data
                               Disclosure
                                       5.0
                                                   5.0
                                                  18.
                                                  14.
                                                    .82
                                                  13.

                                                  19.*
                                                  12.
                                                  24.
                                                   7.2
                                                  25.

                                                  31.
                                                  45.
                                                  23.
                                                   8.1
                                                  14.

                                                  45.
                                                  33.
                                                  41.
                                                   4.8
                                                  70.

                                                  60.
                                                  38.
                                                  11.
                                                  66.
                                                  78.

                                                  41.
                                                  14.
                                                  43.
                                                  16.
                                                 36.
                                                  11.
                                                  29.

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                                                                        23
     Emissions by Grid  for  the Buffalo Study Area (tons/day) (con't)
Grid Area
of
Grid
(Square
Miles)
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
30 & 34





10
2
10
10
10
38
131
108
155
139
54

Sulfur
Oxides



24.
.02
.34
.08
12.
24.
.57
.39
.35
.40
.28
300.
                                        Particulates
                                     Carbon Monoxide
                                                  9.3
                                                   .06
                                                   .34
                                                   .15
                                                  4.7

                                                  9.6
                                                   .49
                                                   .81
                                                   .56
                                                   .54
                                                   .26
                                                120.
                                                 8.1
                                                 1.5
                                                21.
                                                 7.9
                                                 6.5

                                                34.
                                                34.
                                                34.
                                                31.
                                                20.

                                                 7.9

                                                130.
Total
1200. ***
410.***
1200.***
 *Indicates  that more than 50% of the emissions  in the  grid were due to point sources,

 **Data  for  grids  30 and 34 were combined to  prevent  disclosure of the emissions
 from a  single  source.
***Note that all numbers have been rounded off to two significant figures.

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24
            \
                       < 0.01
                       0.01 - 0.099
                    V:'-l 0.1 -0.99
                       1.0 - 9.9
     Tons Per
     Square Mile
     Per Day

* Indicates that
  more  than 50% of
  the emissions in
  the grid are due
  to point        Figure 8:  Sulfur oxides emission density for average day
  sources.

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                                                                               25
            \
                        
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       26
                                                                            oni County
                                                                             •• Counly
* Indicates that
  more  than 50% of
  the emissions  LAKE ERIE
  in the  grid
  are due to point
  sources.
Wyoming Counly
     Tons  Per
     Square Mile
     Per Day
              Figure  10:   Carbon  monoxide emission density for average  day.

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                                                                   27


Where point sources are responsible for more than 50% of the emissions

in a grid zone, this fact is indicated in both Table 1 and the figures.

The 20 largest point sources alone are responsible for about 55% of sulfur

oxide emissions, 45% of particulate emissions, and 5% of carbon monoxide

emissions.

     In general, all of the emission density maps show high emission rates

in the cities of Niagara Falls (N.Y.) and Buffalo. The densities are

moderate in the suburban areas south of Buffalo and are low in the rural

portions of both Erie and Niagara Counties. Since the scope of this report

does not encompass Canadian pollution sources, they do not appear in the

emissions inventory.

     About 90% of the sulfur oxides emissions are caused by the combustion

of fuels, especially coal, coke, and residual oil. In turn, nearly all of

the combustion of coal, coke, and residual oil is accountable to industrial

energy requirements*. Thus, the sulfur oxides emission map reflects the

location of industrial activity in the Buffalo area.

     About 90% of the particulate emissions are caused by industrial process

emissions and industrial fuel consumption. Therefore, the particulate emissions

map also reflects the location of industrial activity.

     More than 90% of the carbon monoxide emissions are caused by auto-

motive transportation,. The map reveals the impact of the New York Thru-

way and the concentration of traffic in the downtown areas of Buffalo

and Niagara Falls.
*Steam-electric power generation by utilities consumes about 10% of the
 coal required for the area.

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28
  AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS




       A study of air quality levels known or estimated to occur is  useful




  in determining the area affected by the pollution sources and thus subject




  to inclusion in the air quality control region.  Such analysis can  be  based




  directly on air quality sampling data in those  instances where the




  sampling program covers a large enough area and has  been in existence




  long enough to provide reliable patterns of air quality throughout the




  region under study. Measured air quality data can be supplemented  by




  estimated air quality data,  derived from a  theoretical diffusion model




  using information on the location and quantity  of pollutant emissions and




  on meteorological conditions.






  Measured Air Quality Data




       Measured air quality data  for the Buffalo  area  is available from more




  than 30 locations.  Suspended particulates,  and  sulfur oxides were  measured




  at most of the stations. Figures 11 and 13  show the  data. Since most  of




  the stations were located in the urban centers,  they did not indicate




  clearly how far out into the rural areas the air pollution extends. Only




  8 stations were located in non-urban areas.  However, data from these  few




  stations indicate that the air  pollutant concentrations decrease quickly




  in rural areas, especially to the south of  Buffalo.






   Estimated Air  Quality




        The diffusion model was applied for carbon monoxide,  sulfur  oxides,




   and particulates for three  different time  periods--summer,  winter, and




   annual.  For each pollutant,  the time period which yielded  the most

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                                                                  29
extensive air pollution problem is the appropriate period to consider.


Carbon monoxide and particulate air pollution are most widespread in the


summer period, whereas sulfur oxides pollution is most widespread in the


winter period. The theoretical results for these three combinations of


pollutant and time period are shown in the figures 12, 14, and 15.


Sulfur Oxides


     The theoretical results for sulfur oxides pollution during the winter


period (figure 12) are slightly higher than the measured results for


an annual average (figure 11). Both results indicate that sulfur oxides


concentrations in the urbanized areas are substantially above those of


surrounding rural areas. Sulfur oxides pollution appears to extend to


portions of Erie and Niagara Counties and Canada.


Particulates


     The theoretical results for suspended particulates pollution during


the summer period (figure 14) are  lower than the measured results for


an annual average (figure 13) by a factor of approximately 2. Since only


eight measuring  stations were located outside of the urbanized area,


comparison of the two results for  outlying areas is tenuous. However,


both results indicate that  the urbanized areas are subjected to suspended


particulate concentrations  which are substantially above those of
                                                                  /

surrounding rural areas. Suspended particulate pollution appears to encompass


large portions of Erie and  Niagara Counties and a small area in Canada.


Carbon Monoxide


     The theoretical results for carbon monoxide concentrations during


the summer period (figure 15) indicate that portions of Erie and Niagara

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       Figure  11:

MEASURED SULFUR OXIDES

    CONCENTRATIONS , Annual Average


     Parts Per Million :

       HH more than 0.050;

       HU 0.020  to 0.050;

       |	< less than 0.020;
Lake Ontario
              20
    Miles
                                  CHAUTAUQUA
                                    COUNTY
                       CATTARAUGUS
                         COUNTY
                                                                                    NEW YORK
                                                                                               NEW YORK
                                                                                    PENNSYLVANIA

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         Figure 12:

THEORETICAL SULFUR OXIDES

     CONCENTRATIONS, Winter Average   Lake Ontario


 Parts Per Million:

       more than 0.050;

       0.020 to 0.050;

       less than 0.020;
                 20
      Miles
                                    CHAUTAUQUA
                                      COUNTY
CATTARAUGUS
  COUNTY
                                                                                                NEW YORK
                                                                                     NEW YORK
                                                                                    ——•
                                                                                     PENNSYLVANIA

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        Figure  13 :

MEASURED SUSPENDED PARTICULATES

         CONCENTRATIONS
         Annual Average

    Micrograms Per Cubic
         Meter:
          more  than  200;

          100  to  200;

          50 to 100;

     i  j   less than 50;
               20
     Miles
Lake Ontario
                                  CHAUTAUQUA
                                    COUNTY
                       CATTARAUGUS
                         COUNTY
                                                                                   NEW YORK
                                                                     Co
                                                         NEW YORK
                                                                                   PENNSYLVANIA

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          Figure 14:
THEORETICAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATES

         CONCENTRATIONS
      Summer Average

     Micrograms Per Cubic Meter:

            more than 100;

            60 to 100;

        H 40 to 60;

        [_ | less than 40;
Lake Ontario

                20
       Miles
                                   CHAUTAUQUA
                                     COUNTY
                       CATTARAUGUS
                         COUNTY
                                                                                   NEW YORK
                                                         NEW YORK
                                                                                                            u>
                                                                                   PENNSYLVANIA

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             Figure 15:

THEORETICAL CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
            Summer Average
      Parts Per Million:

        ;  more than 0.2;

     Up  0.1 to 0.2;

     [__  less than 0.1;
              20
     Miles
Lake Ontario
                                 CHAUTAUQUA
                                   COUNTY
                      CATTARAUGUS
                        COUNTY
                                                                                  NEW YORK
                                                                                              NEW YORK
                                                                                  PENNSYLVANIA

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                                                              35





Counties and Canada are subjected to levels which are above those  in




surrounding rural areas.






SUMMARY




     The emissions inventory and the air quality information are




important indicators of how large a region must be in order to contain all




of the major technical elements of the air pollution problem. From the




above analysis, it appears that Erie and Niagara Counties should be




included in the Buffalo Region, while surrounding counties in the United




States should be excluded since they are not closely linked to the Buffalo




air pollution problem. Since the scope of this report included only areas




under the jurisdiction of the United States, and since the emissions  inventory




did not contain pollution sources in Canada, this analysis has not attempted




to evaluate the extent of pollution crossing the international boundary.

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36






                      THE PROPOSED REGION






PROPOSAL




     Subject to the scheduled consultation,  the Secretary,  Department




of Health, Education, and Welfare, proposes  to designate  an air  quality




control region for the Buffalo area,  consisting of the  area encompassed




by the following jurisdictions:






          In the State of New York:




                Erie County




                Niagara County




The boundaries of the proposed Region are illustrated In  Figure  16.  Figure




17 locates the Region in relation to  the rest  of New York and surrounding




states.






DISCUSSION OF PROPOSAL




     To be successful, an air quality control  region should meet three




basic objectives, as discussed in the section  entitled  "The Size of  a




Region", page 6. First, a region should be self-contained,  with  respect




to air pollution sources and receptors. Second, a region  should  be designed




to meet not only present conditions but also future conditions.  Third,




region boundaries should foster unified and cooperative governmental admin-




istration of the air resource throughout the region. The  proposed boundaries




of the Buffalo Air Quality Control Region satisfy these three objectives.




      The first objective,  that a region be  self-contained  with  respect to

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           Figure  16:






       PROPOSED BUFFALO




AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION
               20
       Miles
                                                                                               NEW YORK
                                                                                   PENNSYLVANIA

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      Figure 17:

PROPOSED BUFFALO AIR QUALITY

       CONTROL REGION
                                                                                                        00
                                                     Proposed
                                                     Buffalo
                                                     Region
                                                                Philadelphia
                                                                  Region

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                                                                39



pollution sources and receptors, appears to be satisfied by the  two-


county proposal. The two-county Region contains all of the major sources


in the area, except for those in Canada. Furthermore, ambient air  pollution


appears to extend no further than the boundaries of Erie and Niagara


Counties, except for parts of Canada. Thus, to the extent of the jurisdiction


of the United States, the air pollution problem of the proposed  region


seems to be self-contained.


     The second objective, that a region be designed for likely  future


growth as well as present conditions, appears to be satisfied by the  two-


county proposal also. There is a sufficient amount of rural land surround-


ing Buffalo and Niagara Falls (N.Y.) to absorb expected population growth


for at least a decade. Urbanization spreading out from Buffalo and


Niagara Falls is not likely to extend into the surrounding Counties of


Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Cattaraugus, or Chautauqua for several  years.


Thus, it is unlikely that these counties will  become closely linked  to the


Buffalo air pollution problem in the near future.


     The third objective, that a region should be compatible with  unified


and cooperative governmental administration of an air pollution  control


program, is also satisfied by the two-county proposal. Erie and  Niagara


Counties presently conduct the only two important county air pollution
                               i

programs in the area. Erie and Niagara Counties have been linked through


the planning functions of the Regional Planning Board. Erie and  Niagara


Counties form a natural economic and cultural unit.


     Since the two-county area seems to satisfy the three major  objectives


of air quality control region boundaries, it forms the proposal  for a

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40






Buffalo Air Quality Control Region made in this report.




     This proposal  represents a starting point for discussion in the




consultation with appropriate State and local officials, which will be held




before the Buffalo  Region is finally designated.
                                                 ft D. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 19693Ui-8lj2 (SOU)

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