RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE
Contract No. CPA 70-60
RTI Project No. OU-534
December 1970
FINAL REPORT
FR-OU-534
Volume I
COMPREHENSIVE STUDY OF'SPECIFIED AIR
POLLUTION SOURCES TO ASSESS THE ECONOMIC
EFFECTS OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
by
D. A. LeSourd, M. E. Fogel, A. R. Schleicher, T. E. Bingham,
R. W. Gerstle, E. L. Hill, F. A. Ayer
Prepared for:
Division of Economic Effects Research
Air Pollution Control Office
Environmental Protection Agency
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27709
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
February 8, 1971
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL OFFICE
1033 Wade Avenue
Raleigh, North Carolina 27605
_ .. Economics of Clean Air: Annual Report to Congress, Backup Document
Sutytct: ky tjie Researcj1 Triangle Institute
To: Addressees
1. The technical report from the Research Triangle Institute which
serves as the backup document for chapters 3 and 4 of the third 305(a)
report to Congress, "The EiAuminixs of Clean Air" is enclosed.
Melvin L. Myers
Engineer-Economist
Division of Economic Effects Research
Enclosure
Addressees:
Dr. John Middleton
Mr. Laszlo Bockh
Mr. Lou Schoen
Dr. B. J. Steigerwald
Dr. Delbert Earth
Mr. Robert Neligan
Dr. John Ludwig
Mr. Raymond Smith
Mr. William Megonnel
Mr. Doyle Borchers
Mr. Robert Perman
Mr. Leighton Price
Dr. Harry Kramer
fcrT"Fred Renner
Dr. Charles Walters
Mr. Jerry Romanovsky
Mr. George Morgan
Dr. Paul Kenline
Dr. Vaun Newill
Dr. Aubrey Altshuller
Mr. Robert McCormick
Mr. John Brogan
Mr. Sheldon Meyers
Mr. Donald Walters
Mr. Don Goodwin
Mr. Kenneth Mills
Mr. Edward Tuerk
Mr. Paul Gerhardt
Mr. Ron Campbell
Mr. Henry Kahn
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RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE
OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND ECONOMICS DIVISION
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA
FINAL REPORT
FR-OU-534
Voltune I
Comprehensive Study of Specified Air Pollution Sources
to Assess the Economic Effects of Air Quality Standards
by
D. A. LeSourd, M. E. Fogel, A. R. Schleieher,
T. E. Bingham, R. W. Gerstle, E. L. Hill, F. A. Ayer
Prepared for:
Division of Economic Effects Research
Air Pollution Control Office
Environmental Protection Agency
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors wish to acknowledge the many people who contributed to
the research reported in this document. RTI staff members who contributed
significantly to the research are: C. Benrud, C. N. Click, A. 0. Cole,
R. L. Collins, B. L. Jones, H. S. Anderson, R. E. Folsom, D. Godfrey,
R. 0. Lyday, R. E. Paddock, and C. T. Sawyer. The authors appreciate the
efforts of personnel of PEDCo-Environmental Specialists, Inc. in assist-
ing in the engineering and cost analysis for the following sources: solid
waste disposal, elemental phosphorus, petroleum refining, petroleum
products and storage, rubber, and varnish. Also, the authors appreciate
the efforts of W. E. Gilbert, APCO, in assisting in the cost analysis of
gray iron foundries and A. C. Basala, APCO, for assisting in the cost
analysis of iron and steel and kraft (sulfate) pulp.
The authors also wish to acknowledge the continuing technical
guidance provided by APCO personnel P. A. Kenline, J. R. O'Connor,
M. L. Myers, F. A. Collins, J. Dement, E. 0. Stork, N. Plaks, P. A. Boys
and A. K. Miedetna.
Finally, special appreciation is extended to the secretaries who
typed and retyped the many drafts of this report: J. Stockton, project
secretary; S. Evans, F. Heald, S. Powell, and T. Stone.
ii
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ABSTRACT
Estimates are made of the costs of controlling and reducing the
emissions of selected pollutants from mobile sources within the Nation
and pollutants from 23 stationary sources within 298 metropolitan areas.
Under the assumed implementation plan, these estimated costs are those
that will be incurred during the period of Fiscal Year 1971 through
Fiscal Year 1976. In addition, an extended analysis is made to determine
the economic impact of control costs on each industrial source or group
of industrial sources studied. Also, the aggregate effects of the impact
of individual industries upon buyer industries and consumer prices are
determined.
The pollutants from mobile sources selected for analysis are hydro-
carbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particulates. The six
pollutants for which control cost estimates are made for stationary
sources are particulates, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,
fluorides, and lead. Emission standards applied are considered stringent
in comparison with many currently in use throughout the Nation. Mobile
sources include automobiles and light and heavy-duty trucks. Stationary
sources studied include solid waste disposal, commercial and institutional
heating plants, industrial boilers, residential heating plants, steam-
electric power plants, asphalt batching, brick and tile, coal cleaning,
cement, elemental phosphorus, grain handling and milling (animal feed),
gray iron, iron and steel, kraft (sulfate) pulp, lime, petroleum products
and storage, petroleum refineries, phosphate fertilizer, primary non-
ferrous metallurgy (aluminum, copper, lead and zinc), rubber (tires),
secondary nonferrous metallurgy, sulfuric acid, and varnish. Data
essential for defining metropolitan areas, emission control standards,
and relevant process and air pollution control engineering characteristics
required to support the cost analyses for each source and the cost impact
on each industrial process are presented and analyzed in separate appendixes
to this report.
Residential heating was examined but control cost estimates were not
made. Also, the economic impact of emission controls on the sulfuric acid
industry was not made.
Air pollution control costs for mobile sources are presented on a
national basis and in terms of unit investment and annual operating and
maintenance costs as well as total annual operating and maintenance costs.
The analyses cover the estimated emissions and control costs for new cars
for Model Year (Fiscal Year) 1967 through Model Year (Fiscal Year) 1976.
Control costs for each stationary source, except for residential heating,
are shown for 298 metropolitan areas by investment and annual expenditures
by Fiscal Year 1976. The emissions and cost estimates developed reflect
the control costs of each stationary source in operation as of Calendar
Year 1967 and those sources assumed to be constructed during Calendar Year
1968 through Fiscal Year 1976. The impact of control on selected industries
and the Nation are also determined. Finally, an extensive bibliography is
included.
Published separately but developed as a part of this research study
are computer programs that will facilitate future cost projections (Volume
II), and a survey plan for obtaining plant and plant process information
where such information is presently lacking (Volume III).
iii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT iii
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES xi
Chapter 1: Introduction 1-1
I. PURPOSE OF RESEARCH 1-1
II. SCOPE OF RESEARCH 1-2
III. PRINCIPAL STUDY LIMITATIONS 1-4
IV. PLAN OF REPORT 1~6
Chapter 2: Study Methodology 2-1
I. INTRODUCTION 2-1
II. MOBILE SOURCES METHODOLOGY 2-1
A. Overview 2-1
B. Selection of Vehicle Types and Pollutants 2-1
C. Engineering and Cost Analysis 2-2
III. STATIONARY SOURCES METHODOLOGY 2-3
A. Overview . 2-3
B. Selection of Sources and Pollutants 2-4
C. Engineering Cost and Analysis 2-5
D. Economic Analysis 2-16
Chapter 3: Summary of Mobile Sources 3-1
I. INTRODUCTION 3-1
II. EMISSION STANDARDS 3-1
III. EMISSION CONTROL COSTS 3-1
IV. EMISSION REDUCTIONS 3-2
Chapter 4: Summary of Stationary Sources 4-1
I. INTRODUCTION 4-1
II. EMISSION LEVELS 4-1
A. Solid Waste Disposal 4-1
B. Stationary Fuel Combustion 4-3
C. Industrial Processes 4-3
III. COSTS 4-5
iv
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter 5: Economic Impact of the Cost of Controlling
Emissions from Stationary Sources 5-1
I. INTRODUCTION 5-1
II. GENERAL PARAMETERS AFFECTING ECONOMIC IMPACT 5-1
A. Type of Source and Quantity of Emissions 5-1
B. Structure of Industry and Market 5-3
III. SPECIFIC IMPACT ON FIRMS IN EIGHTEEN INDUSTRIAL
PROCESS SOURCES 5-4
A. Asphalt Batching 5-4
B. Brick and Tile 5-5
C. Coal Cleaning 5-5
D. Cement 5-5
E. Elemental Phosphorus and Phosphate Fertilizer 5-6
F. Grain Milling and Handling 5-7
G. Gray Iron Foundries 5-8
H. Iron and Steel 5-8
I. Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp 5-9
J. Lime 5-9
K. Petroleum Refining and Storage 5-10
L. Primary and Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy 5-10
M. Rubber 5-13
N. Sulfuric Acid 5-13
0. Varnish 5-13
IV. CONTROL OF FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION 5-13
V. AGGREGATE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY 5-14
VI. CONCLUSIONS 5-15
A. General Economic Impact of Air Pollution Control . . . 5-15
B. Solid Waste Disposal 5-16
C. Stationary Fuel Combustion 5-17
D. Industrial Processes 5-18
Appendix I: Selection of 298 Metropolitan Areas 1-1
Appendix II: Assumed Emission Standards ..... II-l
Appendix III: Mobile Sources III-l
Appendix IV: Stationary Sources IV-1
Appendix V: Alternatives to the Control of Sulfur Oxides From
Stationary Combustion Processes V-l
Appendix VI: Impact of the Cost of Emission Controls on the Price
Level of the U. S. Economy ............ VI-1
Appendix VII: Bibliography VII-1
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LIST OF TABLES
Table
2-1 Major Sources of Data for Stationary Combustion
Cost Estimating Analyses 2-9
2-2 Principal Sources of Data on Industrial Process
Source Location, Number, and Capacities 2-10
2-3 Principal Sources of Data on Industrial Process
Source Production 2-11
2-4 Principal Sources of Data on Industrial Process
Source Value of Shipments 2-11
2-5 1967 Statistics for Industrial Process Sources
(National and in 298 Metropolitan Areas) 2-12
2-6 Average Annual Growth Rate for Production and Capacity . . 2-15
3-1 Summary of Mobile Sources Emission Control Costs 3-3
3-2 Summary of Mobile Sources National Annual
Emission Reduction 3-4
4-1 Solid Waste Disposal and Stationary Fuel Combustion
Estimates of Potential and Reduced Emission
Levels and Associated Costs 4-2
4-2 Industrial Process Sources—Estimates of Potential
and Reduced Emission Levels and Associated Costs . . . 4-4
4-3 Stationary Sources—Estimation of Potential and
Reduced Emission Levels and Associated Costs 4-6
4-4 Expected Annual Control Costs Relative to Capacity,
Production, and Shipments of Industrial
Process Sources 4-8
5-1 Estimated Emissions from all Stationary Sources, FY 1976 . 5-16
1-1 List of 298 Metropolitan Areas 1-2
II-l Allowable Rate of Particulate Emission Based on Process
Weight Rate II-3
III-l Mobile Source Growth and Potential Emissions, FY 1967-1976
[1967 Baseline] III-5
III-2 Effects of Controls on Mobile Source Emissions,
FY 1967-1976 [1967 Baseline] III-7
vi
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Table Page
III-3 Current and Anticipated Standards for Mobile Sources,
1967 - 1976 III-8
III-4 Unit Control Methods and Costs, 1967 - 1976 Model
Years: Cars and Light-Duty Trucks 111-16
III-5 Unit Control Methods and Costs, 1967 - 1976 Model
Years: Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks 111-17
III-6 Costs of Controls and Effectiveness in Reducing
Emissions, FY 1967 - 1976: All Autos and
Gasoline Trucks 111-21
IV-1 Cost of Upgrading Municipal Incinerators IV-3
IV-2 Municipal Incinerator Control Costs IV-6
IV-3 Emission Rates for Various Solid Waste Disposal
Practices IV-9
IV-4 Uncontrolled Emission Rates for Commercial-Institutional
Space Heating . IV-11
IV-5 Emission Factors for Industrial Boilers IV-12
IV-6 Emission Rates for Residential Heating Plants IV-14
IV-7 Control Alternatives Selected for the Steam-Electric
Industry IV-16
IV-8 Incremental Removal Efficiencies Required IV-20
IV-9 Asphalt Batching Emission Control Costs IV-21
IV-10 Uncontrolled Particulate Emission Rates from Coal
Cleaning Processes IV-32
IV-11 Unit Gas Volumes and Control Equipment IV-33
IV-12 Coal Cleaning Control Costs IV-34
IV-13 Present Control Status for the Cement Industry IV-42
IV-14 Ultimate Particulate Removal Efficiencies Required .... IV-42
IV-15 Estimated Costs of Upgrading Existing Control
Equipment IV-43
vii
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Table
IV-16 Elemental Phosphorus Capacity, Furnace Rating and
Gas Flow Rate Through Scrubbers IV-56
IV-17 Control Systems Required IV-58
IV-18 Fertilizer Production Control Costs IV-59
IV-19 1967 Statistical Data on the Elemental Phosphorus
Industry IV-61
IV-20 1967 Statistical Data on the Phosphate Fertilizer
Industry IV-62
IV-21 Employment Size Index Vs Capacity IV-68
IV-22 Elevator Emission Factors IV-69
IV-23 Grain Elevator Control Costs IV-70
IV-24 Animal Feed Mill Control Costs IV-70
IV-25 Cupola Emission Control Costs IV-76
IV-26 Uncontrolled Particulate Emission Rates IV-86
IV-27 Particulate Control Levels (1967) IV-86
IV-28 Required Removal Efficiencies for Emission Sources IV-87
IV-29 Fluorides in Iron and Steel Making IV-88
IV-30 Selected Control Systems IV-89
IV-31 Cost Estimating Parameters IV-90
IV-32 Uncontrolled Particulate Emission Rates IV-98
IV-33 Estimated Particulate Control Levels and Emission Rates
After Control IV-98
IV-34 Required Removal Efficiencies for Kraft Processes IV-100
IV-35 Gas Volume Vs. Production for Kraft Processes IV-101
IV-36 Control Systems Selected IV-101
IV-37 Kraft Recovery Furnace Emission Control Costs IV-102
IV-38 Rotary Lime Recovery Kiln Emission Control Costs IV-103
viii
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
. ,P. -
IV-39 Kraft Smelt-Dissolving Tank Emission Control Costs ..... IV- 103
IV-40 Kraft Bark Boiler Emission Control Costs .......... IV-111
IV-41 1967 Statistics on the Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp Industry. . . . IV-112
IV-42 Ultimate Control Efficiency Required ............ IV-119
IV-43 Lime Kiln Gas Volumes ................... IV-119
IV-44 Rotary Lime Kiln Emission Control Costs .... ...... IV-125
IV-45 Vertical Lime Kiln Emission Control Costs ......... IV-126
IV-46 Petroleum Storage Emission Factors ............. IV- 140
IV-47 1967 Statistics on the Petroleum Refining Industry ..... IV-151
IV-48 1967 Statistics on the Petroleum Products and Storage
Industry ....................... IV-152
IV-49 Cell Control Equipment ................... IV-157
IV-50 Costs of Cell Control Systems - Prebaked and Horizontal
Spike Soderberg ................... IV-160
IV-51 Costs of Cell Room Control Equipment - Prebaked and
Horizontal Spike Soderberg .............. IV-160
IV-52 Costs of Combined Cell Plus Cell Room Control Systems -
Vertical Spike Soderberg ............... IV-161
IV-53 Uncontrolled Emission Rates for Aluminum Reduction Cells. . IV-161
IV-54 Metallurgical Processes for Copper, Lead, and Zinc ..... IV-162
IV-55 Primary Smelting - Model Plants .............. IV-163
IV-56 Sulfur Oxide Emission Rates ................ IV-170
IV-57 Uncontrolled Emission Rates from Secondary Nonferrous
Metals Industry ................... IV-171
IV-58 Emission Control Costs for Secondary Nonferrous
Metallurgy ...................... IV-172
IV-59 1967 Statistics for Primary Nonferrous Metallurgical
Sources ........................ IV-174
ix
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Table Page
IV-60 1967 Statistics for Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgical
IV-61
IV-62
IV-63
IV-64
VI- 1
VI-2
VI- 3
VI-4
VI-5
VI-6
VI-7
VI-8
VI-9
VI- 10
Sources
Status of Emission Controls for Rubber Plants
Sulfuric Acid Emission Control Costs: Double
Absorption
Sulfuric Acid Emission Control Costs: Mist Eliminator. . .
Capacity Vs. Annualized Cost Factors
Comparison of APCO and Input-Output Industry
Selected Components of the Input-Output Table of the U. S.
Estimated Impact of the Costs of Emission Control on the
Truck and Bus Chassis Factory Sales
IV-174
IV- 188
IV-194
IV- 19 5
IV- 19 7
VI- 12
VI-13
VI-14
VI-29
VI-40
VI-40
VI-41
VI-41
VI-42
VI-42
X
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
2-1 Control Costs "Versus Gray Iron Cupola Capacity 2-7
II-l New York State Particulate Emission Regulation for Refuse
Burning Equipment II-4
II-2 Maryland Particulate Emission Standards for Fuel Burning
Installations II-5
III-l Approximate Distribution of Emissions by Source for a
Vehicle not Equipped With any Emission Control System . III-3
IV-1 Municipal Incinerator Particulate Control Costs IV-7
IV-2 Brick and Tile Installed and Purchase Costs of Control
Systems [Ref. 28] IV-27
IV-3 Brick and Tile Annualized Cost of Control Systems [Ref. 28]. IV-28
IV-4 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-35
IV-5 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-36
IV-6 Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-37
IV-7 Investment and Annualized Costs for Phosphorus Furnaces . . IV-57
IV-8 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-104
IV-9 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-105
IV-10 Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers IV-106
IV-11 Annual Direct Operating Cost for Recovery Boiler Venturi
Scrubbers IV-107
IV-12 Annual Direct Operating Cost for Lime Kiln Venturi
Scrubbers IV-108
IV-13 Equipment Cost for Multi-tube Collectors IV-109
IV-14 Annual Operating Cost for Multi-tube Collectors IV-110
IV-15 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubber IV-120
IV-16 Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubber IV-121
xi
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Figure
IV- 17
IV- 18
IV- 19
IV-20
IV- 21
IV- 2 2
IV- 2 3
IV- 2 4
IV- 25
IV-26
IV-27
IV- 2 8
IV-29
IV- 30
VI-1
VI- 2
VI- 3
VI-4
VI-5
VI-6
VI- 7
VI-8
Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers . . .
Annual Direct Operating Cost for Cyclonic Scrubbers . .
Installed Cost of Floating Roofs on Petroleum Storage
Tanks
Annual and Installed Costs for Electrostatic
Cost for Converting Fixed-Roof Gasoline Storage Tanks to
Floating Roof Tanks
Capital Costs for the Contact Sulfuric Acid Process . .
Annual Operating Costs for Contact Sulfuric Acid
Equipment Costs for Lime Wet-Scrubbing Process
Operating Costs for the Lime-Burning Section of the Lime
Operating Costs - Scrubbing and Waste-Treating Section of
Lime Wet-Scrubbing Process at 100% of Capacity . .
Installed Cost for Direct-fired Afterburner for Varnish
Plant
Implicit Price Deflators (1958=100)
Average Wage Rate for Selected Building Trades
Motor Vehicle Factory Sales-Units
Page
IV-122
IV-123
IV- 124
IV- 141
IV-143
IV- 14 6
IV-147
IV-149
IV-165
IV- 16 6
IV- 16 7
IV- 16 8
IV- 169
IV- 19 8
VI-43
VI-44
VI- 45
VI- 46
VI- 4 7
VI-48
VI-49
VI-50
Xll
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Figure Page
VI-9 Motor Vehicle Registrations VI-51
VI-10 Relationship of Motor Vehicle Production to GNP and
Personal Income VI-52
VI-11 Automobiles Per Household and Per Capita VI-53
VI-12 Consumer Price Index for New Automobiles VI-54
xiii
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Chapter 1
Introduction
I. PURPOSE OF RESEARCH
This report is submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of
the Air Pollution Control Office (APCO) Contract No. CPA 70-60. The
research results presented herein are in support of the air pollution
control cost estimates and resulting economic analyses given by the
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in the Third Report
to the Congress of the United States as provided for in Section 305(a)
of Public Law 90-148, the Clean Air Act, as amended.
The purpose of the research reported in this document was to make
estimates of the air pollution control costs and economic impact that
will result from implementation of the Clean Air Act, as amended. The
section of the act pertinent to this research reads:
Sea. SOS. (a) In order to provide the basis for eval-
uating programs authorized by this Act and the development
of new programs and to furnish the Congress with the infor-
mation necessary for authorization of appropriations by
fiscal years beginning after June SO, 1969, the Secretary,
in cooperation with State, interstate, and local air pollu-
tion control agencies, shall make a detailed estimate of
the cost of carrying out the provisions of this Act; a
comprehensive study of the cost of program implementation
by affected units of government; and a comprehensive study
of the economic impact of air quality standards on the
Nation's industries, communities, and other contributing
sources of pollution, including an analysis of the national
requirements for and the cost of controlling emissions to
attain such standards of air quality as may be established
pursuant to this Act or applicable State law. 'The secre-
tary shall submit such detailed estimates and the results
of such comprehensive study of cost for the five-year
period beginning July I, 1969, and the results of such
other studies, to the Congress not later than January 10,
1969, and shall submit a reevaluation of such estimate
and studies annually thereafter.
1-1
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II. SCOPE OF RESEARCH
Air pollution control costs are estimated for mobile sources on
a national basis and for three major categories of stationary sources
(solid waste disposal, stationary fuel combustion, and industrial
processes) for 298 designated metropolitan areas (Appendix I). An
extended analysis was also carried out to determine the economic impact
of control costs on each industrial source or group of industrial
sources studied. In addition, this analysis was carried one step
further in order to determine the aggregate effects of the individual
industry impacts of control costs upon buyer industries and consumer
prices. Although published separately, computer programs that facilitate
cost projections, and a survey plan for obtaining plant and plant process
information were developed as a part of this research study.
Included under the mobile source category are gasoline powered
automobiles, and light and heavy-duty trucks. Stationary sources
include solid waste disposal, stationary fuel combustion, and indus-
trial processes. The sources included under stationary fuel combustion
are commercial and institutional heating plants, industrial boilers,
residential heating plants, and conventional steam-electric heating
plants. The industrial process sources studied are: asphalt batching,
brick and tile, coal cleaning, cement, elemental phosphorus, grain
handling and milling (animal feed), gray iron, iron and steel, kraft
(sulfate) pulp, lime, petroleum products and storage, petroleum
refineries, phosphate fertilizer, primary nonferrous metallurgy (aluminum,
copper, lead, and zinc), rubber (tires), secondary nonferrous metallurgy,
sulfuric acid, and varnish.
The four pollutants for which control costs estimates are made for
mobile sources are hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, and
total particulates. The six pollutants for which control cost estimates
are made, as appropriate, for each stationary source are particulates,
oxides of sulfur, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, fluorides, and lead.
The emission standards applied far each pollutant are presented in
Appendix II.
1-2
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For the mobile source category, air pollution control costs are
estimated on a nationwide basis and reflect the additional initial
purchase costs and annual operating and maintenance costs to purchasers
of new automobiles beginning in Model Year (Fiscal Year) 1967 through
Model Year (Fiscal Year) 1976.
For stationary sources, air pollution control costs are estimated
for each stationary source except residential heating plants that
operated during 1967 in 298 designated metropolitan areas of the Nation.
These 298 metropolitan areas, which were selected and defined by APCO
for this research study, are presented in Appendix I of this report.
In 1967, these areas contained 85 percent of the Nation's population.
Additionally, air pollution control costs that would be incurred by
facilities built during the period 1968 through Fiscal Year 1976 were
estimated. These estimates are limited to stationary sources and to
the 298 metropolitan areas selected. Estimated costs for each source
are aggregated for the metropolitan areas and are given in terms of
total investment required as well as the total annual cost which can
be expected by Fiscal Year 1976.
The scope of the extended analysis of the economic impact of air
pollution control costs on each of the industrial processes is limited
to the analysis of the relationship between the expected air pollution
control costs and product price changes and profit positions of firms
within each source or group of sources. Information is presented on
market and industry structure in order to determine those factors
which principally affect market prices and profits as well as the
viability of individual plants and firms subjected to additional invest-
ment requirements and operating costs. The analysis carried out to
study the aggregate effects of the individual industry impacts was
limited to two major buyer industries—motor vehicle and construction.
These two industries are foci of cumulative cost increases because
they are major purchasers from many of the larger and more affected
industrial sources studied. Finally, using the input-output analysis
technique, the effect of air pollution control costs on the overall
price level of the national economy was determined.
1-3
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III. PRINCIPAL STUDY LIMITATIONS
The principal limitations of this study are described below.
Limitations are discussed separately and in greater detail in Appendix
III, Mobile Sources, and Appendix IV, Stationary Sources.
The principal limitation to the mobile source air pollution control
cost and emission analyses is imposed by data inadequacies. Second,
the analyses are limited to gasoline powered automobiles and light and
heavy-duty trucks. Third, control costs are limited to newly purchased
vehicles, although annual emissions are calculated for the total vehicular
population excluding buses and diesel trucks.
The major data limitations experienced in the analysis include:
present size of the vehicle population, mileage data, vehicle classi-
fication, emission factors and, probably most significant, control
system costs. Vehicle registration data tend to include duplicate
counting and are also somewhat inconsistent with respect to vehicle
classification. This necessitated careful analysis of available data
in order to reduce multiple vehicle counts to a minimum as well as to
develop a reasonable distribution of vehicle classification. The
development of emission factors for mobile sources involved assumptions
concerning typical vehicular use patterns. For this study, government
standard definitions were used where they existed. To obtain data on
particulate emissions, which are not well defined and for which there
is no standard measurement procedure, published literature and other
industrial information were used. Finally, control system cost data
are sketchy at best. Manufacturers of such devices cannot, or will
not, give exact cost figures for motor vehicle controls. This report
utilizes a combination of "off the record" interviews with manufacturers
plus whatever published estimates were available. For items not yet in
production, the same basic approach was used, but with much less confidence.
1-4
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For the stationary source category, several general study limitations
should be stressed. Air pollution control costs were estimated only for
establishments located within the selected 298 metropolitan areas and
only for the six pollutants presented above. For most sources, however,
this represents the majority of plants in the United States and the
most significant pollutants involved. In any case, the total costs
presented in this report should not be considered as the total cost
for achieving clean air—neither in the 298 areas nor in the Nation.
More specific limitations to the air pollution control cost and
economic analyses are related to data insufficiency and the need to
establish various working assumptions.
Ideally, estimation of air pollution control costs and related
emission estimates require data on the size, details on all emission
sources, and present level of emission controls at each establishment.
Unfortunately, the required data are rarely obtainable from available
sources. Primary sources of data utilized in this study were obtained
from technical and trade journals, APCO surveys, reports from the
Department of Gommerce, the Bureau of the Census, other government
agencies, and private communication with individual manufacturing firms
and trade associations. Whenever detailed data were unavailable,
assumptions were made in order to develop the required cost and emission •
estimates.
As far as limitations affecting the economic impact analyses, it
is equally true that the principal difficulty hinges on data and infor-
mation inadequacies. The inability to adequately define company and
industry economic structure in terms of revenue, profit, operating
levels, capital availability and other key factors, as well as the
inability to take into account specific corporation accounting prac-
tices, are stringent limitations to the analyses. In addition, certain
assumptions such as working with constant 1967 dollars, unvarying tech-
nology, unchanging patterns of product substitution and product and
process mix for firms, and the use of simplified economic scale models
must also be considered as-limitations. The resultant product
is a first level analysis, and within the limitations imposed, these
results present a picture from which conclusions and decisions can be
made with some level of assurance.
1-5
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IV. PLAN OF THE REPORT
The results of this study are presented in the following four
chapters. Chapter 2 discusses the overall study methodology employed
to develop (1) the control cost and emission estimates for mobile and
stationary sources, (2) the economic impact analysis for the industrial
process sources, and (3) the resultant aggregate impact analysis. Chapter
3 presents a summary of emissions, controls and costs for mobile sources.
Chapter 4 presents a summary of emissions, controls and costs for all
categories of stationary sources. Chapter 5 presents a detailed dis-
cussion of the analytical framework employed in determining the economic
impact of the costs of controlling stationary sources as well as summary
statements of the results. Summary results include statements on an
industry-by-industry basis in addition to a discussion of the aggregate
effects of the control costs.
Included also in the report are seven appendixes. Appendix I
defines the 298 metropolitan areas which serve as the geographic scope
of the stationary sources analysis. Appendix II presents the emission
control standards applied for the purposes of the study for both mobile
and stationary sources. Appendix III presents a detailed technical
discussion of the mobile source analysis. Appendix IV presents the
details of the engineering analysis for each stationary source as well
as the details of the economic analysis for each industrial process
source. Appendix V presents a broad based discussion of the subject,
problems and potential solutions of controlling stationary combustion
sources. Appendix VI presents an analysis of the aggregate effects of
industry changes upon buyer industries and consumer prices. Appendix VII
is the report bibliography. Computer programs (Volume II) that facilitate
cost projections, and a survey plan (Volume III) for obtaining plant and
plant process information not now available are published as two
separate reports.
1-6
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Chapter 2
Study Methodology
I. INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to describe the methodological
framework which serves as the basis for estimating air pollution emissions
and control costs carried out in this research. For simplicity, the
discussion is separated under two general headings: "Mobile Sources
Methodology" and "Stationary Sources Methodology."
II. MOBILE SOURCES METHODOLOGY
A. Overview
The control cost and emission analyses for the mobile source
category focussed only on gasoline powered automobiles and light and
heavy-duty trucks. Buses and diesel trucks were not explicitly con-
sidered in the analysis. The baseline year for the analysis was
Model Year 1967. Basically the methodology involved: (1) estimating
the characteristics of the vehicle population in terms of number, type
of vehicle and distribution of vehicle by age for each year of the
period 1967 through 1976, (2) estimating control costs to purchasers of
new vehicles purchased during the period 1967 through Fiscal Year 1976,
and (3) estimating annual emissions of each pollutant both with and
without installation of control systems for the total vehicle population.
By 1976, over 80 percent of all vehicles in service will be model years
1967 through 1976. Finally, only air pollution control systems of
proven technical feasibility were considered.
B. Selection of Vehicle Types and Pollutants
Considering the accuracy of available data and the significantly
large fraction of vehicles represented by gasoline powered automobiles
and light and heavy-duty trucks, the rationale for limiting the analysis
to these vehicles and the exclusion of buses and diesel trucks is that
the latter vehicles would not appreciably modify the resulting cost and
emission analysis. The pollutants selected for the analysis were hydro-
carbons, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, and total particulates.
2-1
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On a Nationwide basis, the contribution of each of these emissions from
mobile sources is a significant fraction of the total emissions of each
pollutant. In addition, emission factors have been estimated, control
standards proposed, and control technology determined for each of these.
C. Engineering and Cost Analysis
The engineering and cost analysis presented in Appendix III are
predicated upon meeting increasingly stringent emission standards
(Appendix II) for each of the pollutants for each model vehicle from
1967 through 1976. To meet these standards, factory installed control
systems or combination of control systems have been assumed. The control
systems for which costs have been estimated are presented in Tables III-4
and III-5 of Appendix III. Costs were estimated in terms of increased
purchase and annual operating and maintenance costs to purchasers of
new vehicles. For those control systems which could result in reduced
operating costs, calculations were made to estimate these offsetting
benefits. Information on initial control costs and anticipated incre-
mental operating and maintenance costs were based upon available
published data as well as personal communications with the automobile
companies and with control system manufacturers. Operating and main-
tenance costs were based upon average vehicle use patterns.
The emission analysis included calculation of potential annual
emissions for each pollutant without control, annual emissions assuming
adoption of control practices, and the percent reduction of emissions
on a yearly and cumulative basis. Emission factors were utilized which
incorporated standard government definitions of typical vehicle use
patterns. Acknowledgement of a typical vehicle use pattern is necessary
because emission factors are stated in terms of mass rate per typical
mile driven.
A detailed technical description of the analysis as well as a
presentation of the results can be found in Chapter 3 and Appendix III.
2-2
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III. STATIONARY SOURCES METHODOLOGY
A. Overview
The methodology followed in estimating air pollution control costs
and emissions was basically an extension of last year's effort.—
Minor changes were incorporated, when new and improved data and infor-
mation warranted, to improve the accuracy of estimates for various
sources or pollutant types. This year, however, the study went beyond
simply developing air pollution control cost estimates. For most of
the industrial process sources, economic analyses were performed to
determine the impact of the investment and annual cost requirements
on the individual industry as well as aggregate impact on selected
sectors and the national economy.
The steps taken in the engineering and cost analyses were:
1) Identification of significant sources for each- pollutant.
2) Estimation of 1967 baseline data showing levels of emissions
and controls.
3) Calculation of pollutant removal efficiencies required to
meet the standards assumed.
4) Determination of appropriate control technology to achieve
the required removal efficiencies.
5) Estimation of investment and annual costs for each control
technique used by sources in existence in 1967.
6) Projection of emission and cost estimates through Fiscal
Year 1976 and without indicated controls.
The following steps were added to the engineering and cost analyses
to determine the economic impact of control costs on the industrial
process sources:
1) Description of the industry and market structure relevant
to each pollutant source.
— A departure from the previous effort (see Appendix VII, Bibliography,
for report listing), although not specifically a methodological change, is in
the presentation of the estimates. In this report, the estimates are pre-
.sented in an aggregate fashion for 298 metropolitan areas instead of indi-
vidual estimates for each area of the 100 metropolitan areas designated last
year. The accuracy of aggregate estimates is clearly superior to individual
regional estimates due to the necessity of utilizing average values of certain
key parameters in the cost and emission estimating relationships.
2-3
-------
2) Estimation of investment and annual control costs for typical
plants or firms in each industry, where feasible.
3) Calculation of annual cost per unit of product sold.
4) Estimation of degree of cost shifting through product price
by end of Fiscal Year 1976.
5) Evaluation of economic impact on typical firms, industry
structures, prices, and sales.
6) Estimation of aggregate economic impact on selected industries
and the national economy.
B. Selection of Sources and Pollutants
Of the many pollutants for which control expenditures may eventually
be required, only six were selected by APCO for this study. They are
particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, fluorides,
and lead. Choice of these particular pollutants was based on two impor-
tant considerations. First, and most important, these pollutants are
significant because of their widespread and adverse effects on communities.
Second, acceptable emission control techniques exist for these six
pollutants. In fact, air quality criteria and control technology docu-
ments for particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide
have already been published by APCO; fluoride and lead documents will
be published in the near future.
The sources selected for inclusion in this study are those estimated to
emit significant quantities of one or more of the above pollutants.
The sources selected by APCO include solid waste disposal, commercial-
institutional heating plants, industrial boilers, residential heating
plants, steam-electric generating plants, and the following industrial
process sources: asphalt, brick and tile, coal cleaning, cement,
elemental phosphorus, grain handling and milling (animal feed milling
only), gray iron foundries, iron and steel^ kraft (sulfate) pulp, lime,
petroleum products storage, petroleum refineries, phosphate fertilizer,
primary nonferrous metallurgy (copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum), rubber
(tires), secondary nonferrous metallurgy (copper, brass, bronze, aluminum,
lead, and zinc), sulfuric acid, and varnish.
2-4
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C. Engineering and Cost Analysis
Before cost analysis could be performed, a thorough engineering
analysis of the sources was necessary. This included an understanding
of production processes and an appraisal of their emissicms on existing
levels of control. In addition, there were numerous process steps for
which one or more unit processes could be employed, e.gj, wet or dry
calcining of cement.
For each unit process, emission factors were either obtained from
published literature or derived. Discussions of the emission factors
employed for specific sources are presented in Appendix IV- Uncontrol-
led emissions were estimated for the unit processes simply by multiplying
emission factors by appropriate production estimates. Estimates for a
given source were made on an hourly, daily, or yearly basis for a given
plant, an area, or the entire Nation.
To ascertain whether the 1967 emissions from a given source were in
compliance with the assumed standards (Appendix II), it was necessary
to estimate the existing level of control. Ideally, the level of control
should be determined for each source within each metropolitan area.
However, it became apparent early in the project that area-specific
information could not be obtained during the available time, if at all.
Accordingly, estimates of 1967 control levels were based on the best
2/
obtainable secondary data.— For some sources, average control levels
for the Nation were applied to the sources in all 298 metropolitan areas.
In some cases where emissions were being controlled, the control
system was actually part of the production process; such costs were not
considered to be air pollution control expenses.
The next step in the analysis was the calculation of the pollutant
removal efficiences required to satisfy the emission standards assumed.
Given the allowable and the existing emissions, the required removal
efficiency was calculated using the following equation:
R.E. =
2/
— For the gray iron industry, control data on a plant by plant basis
were available from an APCO survey.
2-5
-------
where: R.E. is the removal efficiency (in
percentage) required;
Qe is the existing emission; and
Qa is the allowable emission.
The relationship holds for both concentration-based and mass-rate
emission standards.
The final step of the engineering analysis was the identification
of applicable air pollution control alternatives. In nearly all cases,
the designation of an alternative on which to base cost estimates
was made because of industrial experience with the control alternative.
Occasionally, it became apparent that one alternative was clearly superior
to all others, but this was the exception rather than the rule. In
most cases, there were several alternatives which would meet requirements.
For example, the control of particulates can be accomplished by use of
cyclones, fabric filters, electrostatic precipitators or wet-type scrubbers
and, in the case of combustion equipment, by fuel substitution. Sulfur
oxide emissions can be reduced by fuel substitution, gas scrubbing, and
sulfur compound recovery systems. In general, the designation of control
alternatives for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons was straightforward
since the number of alternatives was more limited. The specific control
alternatives on which cost estimates for the given source were based are
presented in Appendix IV. In general, the size of air pollution
control equipment is expressed in terms of gas throughput and process
size—gas volume relationships were determined for each xinit process.
In addition, certain engineering factors related to equipment cost had
to be established, e.g., required pressure drop for venturi scrubbers;
construction material; type of fabric filter material, wet or dry-type
electrostatic precipitator, etc. Once these factors were determined,
reasonable estimates of purchase, installation, and operating costs
could be made. An example of a production - control cost relationship
is shown in Figure 2-1 for the control of gray iron cupolas.
In order to apply the findings of engineering analysis to control
cost estimation, a variety of source statistics were required. These
source statistics included regional data for plant location and number
of plants, production, capacity, and value of shipments, as applicable.
2-6
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80O|—
60O
o
o
o
*£ 400
o
o
200
O INSTALLED
Q ANNUAL
6.25
12.5
18.75 25 31.25
CAPACITY - TONS/HOUR
37.5
43.75
50.0
Fig. 2-1. Control Costs Versus Gray Iron Cupola Capacity.
-------
Primary data on solid waste disposal were obtained from "The
National Solid Wastes Survey" and the 1968 National Survey of Community
Practices. For stationary combustion sources, the major sources of cost
estimating data are given in Table 2-1. The principal sources of these
data for industrial process sources are presented in Tables 2-2 through
2-4. Complete citations for most references may be found in the
bibliography, Appendix VII.
A summary of statistics for industrial process sources is presented
in Table 2-5.
Once a control alternative was designed and gas volume and other
design specifications determined, control costs were calculated as a
function of capacity and other production characteristics. The general
array of tasks essential to the estimation of emission control costs
3/
is briefly described in this section.— The initial task was that of
gathering information about the number of plants or establishments in
each of the 298 metropolitan areas. When available, detailed information
about the number of plants or establishments in each of the 298 metropo-
litan areas and the size or capacity of individual processes within each
plant was compiled. Most often, employment data were the best available
indicators of plant size and production. The production estimate was then
used to determine exhaust gas volume and emissions. In a few cases, the
number of plants or the total capacity in an area had to be estimated
because available records were incomplete. The amount of specific
information that was obtained determined to a major extent the manner
in which cost estimates were calculated.
Another task was to determine which plants needed emission controls,
i.e., which plants emitted pollutants in excess of the assumed standards.
Information inputs for this task were the 1967 level of control estimates
and other factors provided by the engineering analysis described above.
Next, unit cost estimates for control alternatives or a combination
of alternatives were computed. Data for these computations were obtained
from a variety of sources: surveys, previous APCO studies, technical
articles on specific control equipment, and articles dealing with specific
industries. Unit cost estimates included all recognizable significant
elements of costs; both initial investment and continuing annual costs
3/
- Minor but significant variations of the basic technique were necessary;
the relevant sections of Appendix IV describes the method for each source
category.
2-8
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TABLE 2-1. - MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA FOR STATIONARY COMBUSTION
COST ESTIMATING ANALYSES
Source
Major Document(s)
Steam-electric power generation
plants
Industrial boilers
Commercial-institutional heating
plants
Residential heating plants
Steam-Electric Plant Construction
Cost and Annual Production Expenses
1963 Census of Manufactures
Supply and Demand for Energy in
the U.S. by States and Regions,
1960 and 1967.
Interstate Air Pollution Study; St. Louis,
Phase II, Project Report,
Air Pollution Emissions Inventory
1960 Census of Housing
2-9
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TABLE 2-2 - PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF DATA ON INDUSTRIAL
PROCESS SOURCE LOCATION, NUMBER, AND CAPACITIES
Data Class
United States
298 Metropolitan Areas
American Bureau of Metal Statistics
1968 Yearbook
Directory of Chemical Producers,
Stanford Research Institute
Directory of American Iron and Steel
Works of the United States and
Canada, 1967
Rubber Redbook, Directory of the
Rubber Industry, 1968 (20th ed.)
Waste Trade Directory
1963 Census of Business
Rock Products, July 1967 and May 1969
Mimeographed lists, U.S. Bureau of
Mines
Tape from Dun and Bradstreet
List prepared by Resources Research,
Inc.
N.E.S.S. Report, NAPCA
Lists from state highway departments
Lists from surveys by U.S. Department
of Commerce and NAPCA
Telephone contacts with firms
The sources used for the U.S. data
on number of employees from 1963
Census of Manufactures and 1964-67
County Business Patterns
2-10
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TABLE 2-3. - PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF DATA ON INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCE PRODUCTION
Data Class
United States
298 Metropolitan Areas
American Bureau of Metal Statistics
1968 Yearbook
Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook,
1966 and 1967
Survey of Current Business, 1968
issues
1963 Census of Manufactures
1963 U.S. Census of Business
U.S. Industrial Outlook, 1969
"Sulfuric Acid," Current Industrial
Reports, 1967
Hot-Mix Asphalt Production and Use
Facts for 1967
The Statistics of Paper, 1968
Supplement
Feed Situation, ERS, USDA, May 1969
U.S. capacity in the industry was
prorated to each of the 298 metro-
politan areas on data from the Dun
and Bradstreet tape, 1963 Census
of Manufactures and 1964-67 County
Business Patterns.
TABLE 2-4. - PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF DATA ON INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCE VALUE OF SHIPMENTS
Data Class
United States
Census of Manufactures , Preliminary
Report
1963 Census of Manufactures
1963 U.S. Census of Business
Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook,
1967
"Sulfuric. Acid," Current Industrial
Reports, 1967
U.S. Industrial Outlook 1969
Telephone contacts with firms
Estimates of U.S. production
Annual Report , International Paper Co . ,
1966
298 Metropolitan Areas
U.S. value of shipments by industry
was prorated to each of the 298
metropolitan areas on the basis of
the ratio of metropolitan area to
U.S. production.
2-11
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TABLE 2-5. - 1967 STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCES (NATIONALLY AND IN 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS )-'
K>
c
Source and Unit of
Asphalt Batching
Brick and Tile
Coal Cleaning
Cement
Elemental Phosphorus
Grain : Handling
Milling
Gray Iron Foundries
Iron and Steel
Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
Line
Petroleum Products and Storage
Petroleum Refineries
Phosphate Fertilizer
Primary Nonferrous
Metallurgy: Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Rubber (Tires)
Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy
Sulf uric Acid
Varnish
Measurement *
tons of paving mixture-
brick equivalents
tons
barrels
tons
bushels^'
tons
tons of castings-
tons of raw steel
tons
tons
gallons-
barrels
tons P«0,-
-ji
tonsy/
tonsy.
. / /
tons-^
tiresi/
tons
tons
gallons
Total Number
of Sources
United
States
1,284
469
667
178
13
11,124
2,496
1,446
142
116
185
29,664
256
179
24
19
6
15
60
627
213
220
298
Areas
1,064
301
256
138
8
4,098
2,155
1,179
134
81
113
14,998
199
147
14
10
4
9
54
583
180
216
Capacity^
(Millions of
Units per Year)
United
States
658.0
10,100.0
370.0
515.0
0.7
6,430.0
66.0
17.0
165.0
32.1
21.0
182.0
4,210.0
12.2
3.5
9.3
1.7
1.3
l.ll/
2.6
38.7
23.0
298
Areas
549.0
7,150.0
139^0
395.0
0.3
3,480.0
55.5
14.0
161.0
22.5
14.2
129.0
3,620.0
10.3
2.0
6.4
1.2
0.6
i.oS/
1.9
32.9
22.0
Production—
(Millions of
Units per Year)
United
States
216.0
8,260.0
349.0
374.0
0.6
18,000.0
55.0
14.. 3
127.0
23.9
16.8
1,820.0
3,580.0
7.0
3.3
2.6
0.5
0.9
213.0
2.3
28.8
10.0
298
Areas
180.0
5,910.0
131.0
252.0
0.3
9,760.0
46.2
11.8
124.0
16.8
11.3
1,290.0
2,720.0
5.7
1.9
1.8
0.3
0.4
196.0
1.7
24.5
9.6
Value of Shipments
(Billions of
Dollars per Year)
United
States
1.50
0.35
1.53
1.21
0.20
N/A5-7
4.60
2.70
13.30
3.60
0.24
22.50
20.29
1.60
1.56
1.98
0.13
0.33
3.70
1.59
0.25
0.03
298
Areas
1.30
0.25
0.58
0.83
0.14
N/A^
3.70
2.20
13.10
2.50
0.16
15.80
15.41
1.20
0.88
1.36
0.92
0.15
3.40
147
0.21
0.03
— The 298 metropolitan areas are defined in Appendix I.
—' Capacity and production are in millions of units (tons, etc.) unless otherwise footnoted.
— Capacity is calculated assuming 1,000 operating hours per year.
— Capacity is in million bushels of storage space; production, million bushels of throughput.
-' Not applicable.
— Capacity is in billion gallons of gasoline storage space; production, billion gallons of gasoline handled.
~H "Tons" applies to smelters; for copper and lead, capacity is given as input material and production is adjusted to remove effect of a labor strike.
— Capacity is in millions o£ tires per day.
-------
information and estimates or assumptions were used only in the absence
of specific data.
When installation of new control systems is involved, control costs
are reported in terms of the initial investment required to implement
controls and the continuing annual expenses related to that investment.
The investment cost is the total expense of purchasing and installing
control equipment. The annual cost is the sum of yearly charges for
capital-related costs (interest on the investment funds, property taxes
where applicable, insurance premiums, and depreciation charges) plus
operating (fuel, labor, utilities, and supplies) and maintenance costs.
To account for the effect of upgrading existing control equipment,
where possible, to meet increased control requirements, a set of cost-
efficiency parameters called multipliers were derived. The multipliers
were derived from the relationship that installed costs for 99 percent
.control would be double the cost for 90 percent control and that costs
for 99.9 percent control would be three times the cost at 90 percent.
The three points, (i.e., 90 percent equals 1.0, 99.0 equals 2.0, and
99.9 percent equals 3.0) were used to establish an exponential curve
from which cost multipliers for other specific control efficiency levels
could be read. With the multipliers taken from the curve, costs given
in the literature for one level of efficiency can be adjusted for any
other efficiency level. As an example, unit cost for a 95 percent
efficiency control level can be adjusted for 98 percent efficiency as
follows:
M
C --22x C
C98 ~ M X °95
95
where: C_fi = cost for 98% control;
C95 = cost for 95% control;
M R = multiplier for 98% control; and
multiplier for 95% control.
Hence, incremental investment costs can be calculated on the basis of
COQ - Cn_. Annual operating and maintenance costs in this situation
9o 95
2-13
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are also reported on the basis of the increase required to move from
a lower removal efficiency to the higher level.
For this study, the level of control which existed in an industry
as of 1967 was used as a baseline; cost estimates were calculated only
for providing controls in excess of the 1967 average level for a pol-
lutant and a source. For example, the estimated 1967 average level of
control in the asphalt industry was 80 percent; therefore, the estimated
costs of control reflect only expenditures that must be made to comply
with the assumed standard by the industry over and above the 1967 base-
line of 80 percent. This working assumption follows from the premise
that the level of control in effect when the Clean Air Act was amended
in 1967 is not attributable to the Act. It was further assumed that
the additional sources constructed after 1967 will be controlled at
the 1967 control level and hence only the control required above this
level would be attributable to the Act.
In order to project air pollution control cost and emission
estimates through Fiscal Year 1976 for the industrial process sources,
it was necessary to develop projections of the annual growth rates of
production and capacity for each source. This was accomplished by pro-
jecting future production on the basis of a least square regression
4/
analysis with time (year) as the independent variable.— The average
annual rate of growth (or decline) in production could then be projected.
The average annual rates of growth (or decline) in capacity were developed
by relating the change in production projected to the change in capacity
necessary in order to have the Fiscal Year 1976 operating rate equal to
the average operating rate for the period 1958-1968. Table 2-6 presents
the average annual growth rates for both production and capacity utilized
in this study.
Except for the gray iron foundry industry and solid waste disposal,
estimates of annual control costs were based on ten-year, straight-line
(10 percent) depreciation of the indicated investment and 10 percent to
cover capital-related charges such as interest, taxes, and insurance.
In the gray iron foundry industry, depreciation and capital-related ex-
penses were obtained from plant survey data. For estimates in solid
— Except where such exogenous events as the apparent removal
of tetraethyl lead from gasoline, and hence the predicted downward
demand for lead, made it apparent that this technique was not valid.
2-14
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TABLE 2-6.-AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE FOR PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY
Industry
Steam-Electric (Fossil Fuel)
Asphalt Batching
Brick and Tile
Coal Cleaning
Cement
Elemental Phosphorus
Grain Handling and Milling
Gray Iron Foundries
Iron and Steel
Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
Lime
Petroleum Products and Storage
Petroleum Refineries
Phosphate Fertilizer
Primary Nonferrous Metallurgy:
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Rubber (Tires)
Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy
Sulfuric Acid
Varnish
Average Annual Growth
Rate for Production
(Percent)
4.3
3.1
1.5
3.2
2.0
4.6
2.8
6.2
3.9
6.0
4.7
2.7
2.7
5.1
5.8
1.3
4.1
2.6
4.2
6.1
4.9
-2.4
Average Annual Growth
Rate for Capacity
(Percent)
4.3
3.1
1.5
3.2
2.0
4.9
3.2
6.6
4.2
6.0
4.7
2.7
2.8
5.3
4.4
0.2
4.1
1.4
5.1
6.6
5.1
-5.9
2-15
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waste disposal, accounting conventions normally used by municipalities
were employed. For all industries, maintenance and other operating
expenses were estimated on the basis of the types of process and control
equipment involved.
Finally, it should be noted that the cost and emission estimates
were based on the best available data. Where data were scarce, engineering
judgement had to be applied to fill in the analytical gaps. In all
cases all assumptions were carefully reviewed.
D. Economic Analysis
The purpose of the economic analysis was to estimate th.e impact
that would be felt by firms applying the designated controls to plants
or operating units within the company structure, and thereby incurring
the required investment and annualized cost. It was intended to answer,
so far as possible, questions about the extent to which firms might
shift the costs to customers in the form of higher prices, whether
profits would be reduced, whether competitive market patterns would be
disturbed, and whether some plants or companies would be forced to close.
The form of the analysis differed somewhat from industry to industry,
depending upon the absolute magnitude of the costs involved, the structure
of the industry and its market, and the kinds and amounts of data
available. In general, the analysis followed the steps outlined in
Paragraph A of this section and as described below:
1) Description of the industry and market. Basic data were
assembled showing, within the data limitations, the number
of firms, size distribution, operating characteristics, and
similar measures of each industry. Product markets, major
customers, sales practices, and distribution of sales were
also defined for each industry. Estimates were made of price
trends, demand, production, capacity, and capacity utiliza-
tion. This stage of the analysis concluded with a qualitative
2-16
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evaluation of the type and intensity of intra- and inter-
industry competition for each industry studied.
2) Estimation of investment and annual control costs. The costs
generated per control technique, per unit process or plant
in the engineering and cost analysis, were translated into in-
vestment requirements and annual costs per firm, or per plant
if that was the data availability limit. Where feasible,
typical firms or plants were defined to represent the signi-
ficant variations of size and process utilization within the
industry and cost differentials resulting from these calculated
variations. These costs were compared, where possible, with
typical revenues and profits.
3) Calculation of annual cost per unit of production. The range
of annual costs developed for typical firms or plants in the
previous step were expressed as unit costs on the basis of
the estimated production for those firms or plants, assuming
a percentage utilization of capacity. Unit costs were then
expressed as percentages of price.
4) Estimation of cost shifting. A qualitative evaluation was
made of the price elasticity of demand over a price range
equal to maximum annual cost per unit of product and the
pricing practices of the industry, based on the industry and
market data developed in Step 1. An estimate was then made
of the probability that firms in each industry would raise
prices to offset the increased costs resulting from instal-
lation of controls. The most probable change in price attri-
butable to control costs by Fiscal Year 1976, exclusive of
all other price influences, was estimated.
5) Evaluation of economic impact. Qualitative evaluation was
made of the impact of nonshiftable control costs on the
revenue and profit position of typical firms. Similarly,
the impact of price changes on competitive markets was
examined. Finally, the probability that some firms in each
industry might be forced out of business or forced to change
production and product patterns was estimated.
2-17
-------
6) Estimation of aggregate impact. Using input-output analysis,
the cumulative impact of price changes due to control costs
was estimated for the automobile and construction industries.
The aggregate effect of price changes induced by control costs
on the national price level was also estimated, using the
Gross National Product (GNP) deflator as the index of change.
2-18
-------
Chapter 3
Summary of Mobile Sources
I. INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to present the results of the
mobile sources control cost and emission reduction analyses. The
mobile sources included in the analyses were gasoline powered auto-
mobiles and light and heavy-duty trucks. Pollutants considered were
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, and total particu-
lates. The analyses cover the period 1967 through Fiscal Year 1976.
A detailed discussion of the analyses and results are presented in
Appendix III of this report.
II. EMISSION STANDARDS
Emission standards increasing in stringency through Fiscal Year
1976 were applied for each pollutant. These standards were considered
to apply only to newly purchased vehicles. None of the emission standards
used in this report apply to used vehicles. The control standards to
be met by newly purchased vehicles in Fiscal Year 1976 are considered
to be the limit of what can be expected with the present reciprocating
internal combustion engine. It should be noted that the specific
standards applied in this report were those promulgated or under con-
sideration as of July 15, 1970. As will be reiterated in Appendix III,
if the implementation of the standards adopted for this study is
accelerated or if the standards are increased in stringency it can be
expected that control costs will rise proportionally while annual
emissions can be expected to decrease.
III. EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Emission control costs were calculated on the basis of additional
investment and operating and maintenance costs to purchasers and users
3-1
-------
of new vehicles beginning with vehicle model year 1968. For the purposes
of analysis, vehicle model year and fiscal year were considered to be
equivalent. Table 3-1 summarizes unit investment and annual operating
and maintenance costs for automobiles, light-duty trucks and heavy-duty
trucks, as well as total annual investment requirements and cumulative
total annual operating and maintenance costs. As can be seen, unit
investment costs per vehicle range from two dollars in 1968 to 240
dollars in 1976 for autos and light-duty trucks and from zero in 1968
to 46 dollars in 1976 for heavy-duty trucks. The resultant national
investment requirement ranged from $13.9 million in 1968 to $3.03 billion
in 1976. For autos and light-duty trucks, the control alternatives
chosen for the years 1968 thru 1972 actually lead to reduced operating
and maintenance costs. Starting with the control systems installed
from 1973 on, however, increased operating and maintenance do occur.
For heavy-duty trucks, operating and maintenance costs are either zero
or positive. Cumulatively, national annual operating and maintenance
costs reach $908 million by 1976.
IV. EMISSION REDUCTIONS
Table 3-2 summarizes the effect of the control costs expenditures
on the annual emission of each of the pollutants. By Fiscal Year 1976,
total national emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen
oxides, and particulates from autos and trucks of all ages are reduced
71, 60, 23, and 16 percent, respectively. It is significant to note
that before 1975, when nitrogen oxide standards become effective,
increasing the control of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide lead to
increases in nitrogen oxide emissions. After 1975, the controlling of
these emissions on a national level begins with the introduction of
nitrogen oxide control systems. Also, the standards and hence reduction
of particulate emissions do not begin until 1975. As time passes and
with larger fractions of the vehicle population being under control by
Fiscal Year 1976, the percent reduction of all pollutants from potential
emissions will increase.
3-2
-------
TABLE 3-1. - SUMMARY OF MOBILE SOURCES EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Fiscal Year
1967
1968
f3 1969
u>
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Investment
Cost per
Vehicle
[Autos
and Light-
Duty
Trucks ]
(Dollars)
0
2.00
2.00
7.00
17.00
17.00
42.00
42.00
240.00
240.00
Additional Investment
Operating Cost per
and Mainte- Vehicle
nance Cost [Heavy-
per Vehicle Duty
L Autos and Trucks]
Light-Duty (Dollars)
Trucks ]
(Dollars/
Year)
0 0
-5 . 10— 0
-5 . 10— 0
-5.10^' 9.00
-2. 70^ 9.00
-2.70^ 9.00
7.90 21.00
7.90 21.00
20.70 46.00
20.70 46.00
Additional Incremental
Operating Investment
and Mainte- Cost to
nance Cost Purchasers
per Vehicle of Model
[Heavy-Duty Year Vehicle
Trucks] (Millions of
(Dollars/ Dollars)
Year)
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.50
3.50
13.50
13.50
0
13.9
20.7
56.1
131.1
136.6
346.3
498.5
2,068.7
3,031.7
Cumulative
Annual
Operating
and Mainte-
nance Costs
(Millions
of Dollars)
0
- 35. 4—
- 88.2-^
-138. 3^'
-175. 3^
-208. 9-^
-154.4^
- 50. 3^
743.5
908.6
— Negative values indicate a savings in cost of operation.
-------
TABLE 3-2. - SUMMARY OF MOBILE SOURCES NATIONAL ANNUAL EMISSION REDUCTION
Fiscal Year , P°teTitialf
(millions of
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
£ 1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Hydrocarbons
21.1
24.2
25.4
26.1
26.5
27.3
28.0
28.8
29.9
30.8
Carbon
Monoxide
126.0
130.0
137.0
140.0
143.0
146.0
151.0
155.0
160.0
166.0
Emissions
tons /year)
Nitrogen
Oxides
5.70
5.91
6.18
6 . 35 w--
6.45
6.64
6.82
7.00
7.26
7.50
Controlled Emissions
(millions of tons /year)
Participates
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.29
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.44
Hydrocarbons
21.1
20.7
20.2
19.0
17.4
15.7
14.1
12.4
10.7
9.1
Carbon
Monoxide
126.0
125.6
124.4
118.4
110.5
102.0
94.0
86.0
76.3
66.4
Nitrogen
Oxides
5.70
6.07
6.56
6.91
7.20
7.58
7.44
7.13
6.55
5.78
Particulates
.33
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
.39
.39
0.41
0.39
0.37
-------
Chapter 4
Summary of Stationary Sources
I. INTRODUCTION
The stationary sources covered in this chapter include solid waste
disposal, stationary fuel consumption for heat and power, and industrial
process sources. The engineering and technical analysis conducted for
this study provides estimates of the levels of emissions of six pollutants:
particulates, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, fluorides, and
lead. The quantities of emissions of these pollutants from each source
were estimated as of 1967. These provided a baseline from which to estimate
the controls needed, their associated costs, and the control effectiveness
that could be related to the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1967. Potential
emissions were projected to fiscal year 1976 and the reduced emissions attain-
able in that year were calculated, along with estimates of the investment
required to meet designated emission standards and the annual cost of con-
trol for fiscal year 1976. The results of this analysis are presented
in this chapter. Detailed discussions of the analyses are presented in
Appendix IV of this report.
II. EMISSION LEVELS
A. Solid Waste Disposal
It is estimated that solid waste was generated at the rate of 10.2
pounds per person per day in the United States in 1967. The 298 metropolitan
areas had an estimated population of 166,882,000 in that year and therefore
approximately 311 million tons of solid waste. Of this, 15 percent was
incinerated, 42 percent was open burned, and 43 percent disposed of in
landfills, ocean dumping, composting, and other ways. Incineration and
open burning are sources of particulate, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbon
emissions. The initial 1967 estimated emissions and the 1976 levels of
these emissions, as estimated with and without implementation of the Clean
Air Act, are shown in Table 4-1.
4-1
-------
TABLE 4-1. - SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL AND STATIONARY FUEL COMBUSTION
ESTIMATES OF POTENTIAL AND REDUCED EMISSION LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED COSTS
1298 Metropolitan Areas!p
N>
Quantity of Emissions ,/
(Thousands of Tons per Year)—
Source
Solid Waste Disposal
Commercial- Institutional
Heating Plants
Industrial Boilers
Residential Heating Plants
Steam-Electric Power Plants
I/
1.1
I/
A/
5/
Year
1967 ,
FY76 W/0^'
FY76 wA/
1967 ,
FY76 W/0^
FY76 WA/
1967
FY76 W/0
FY76 W
1967
FY76 W/0
FY76 W
1967
FY76 W/0
FY76 W
Part
sox
1,110.0
1,500.0
185.0
127.
152.
135.
1,360.
1,410.
142.
160.
120.
120.
1,600.
2,185.
533.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,
1,
2,
2,
1,
7,
10,
1,
940
440
400
330
310
100
776
597
597
370
100
600
3,
5,
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
CO
770.0 1
450.0 2
414.0
-
-
—
-
HC F Pb
,400.0 -
,020.0 -
293.0 -
_
_
- - -
; -: i
Associated Emission Control Level Control Costs
(Percent) (Millions of Dollars)
Part
N/A^
N/A 5/
N/A I/
0
0
11.2
61.5
62.0
99.0
0
0
0
78.0
7810
96.6
The 298 metropolitan areas are defined in Appendix I.
Emissions abbreviated are: particulates (Part), sulfur oxides (SO ) , carbon monoxide (CO)
in the table indicate the emission levels meet the applicable regulation (Appendix II) or
Estimates without implementation of the Clean Air Act are shown.
Estimates with implementation of the Clean Air Act are shown.
SO CO HC F Pb Investment Annual
N/A 5/ N/A5/ -
N/A 5/ N/A5_/ - - 201.0 113.0
0 -
0 -
2.8 41.7 25.1
0
0 - - - -
50.5 - 1,050.0 555.0
0
0
0 0 0
0 - - - -
0 - - - -
84.1 - 1,340.0 426.0
, hydrocarbons (HC) , fluorides (F) , and lead (Pb) . Bl
that emissions are negligible or do not exist.
~ Not applicable.
-------
B. Stationary Fuel Combustion
Combustion of fossil fuels for the production of heat and power
is the source of substantial emissions of particulates and sulfur
oxides. Coal and residual fuel oil are the fuels causing the most
emissions, while distillate fuel oils and natural gas produce very
small amounts of pollutants when burned in properly adjusted equipment.
For this analysis , the sources in this category have been divided
into residential heating, commercial-institutional heating, industrial
boilers (excluding fuel combustion that is part of the direct production
process, as in a cement kiln, for instance), and steam-electric genera-
tion.
Included within the 298 metropolitan areas are 95.3 percent of the
commercial-institutional heating plants, 83.4 percent of the industrial
boilers, 81.0 percent of the residential heating plants, and 75.0 percent
of the steam-electric power plants in the United States in 1967.
Table 4-1 shows the 1967 and 1976 emissions of particulates and
sulfur oxides estimated for each of these sources and the associated
emission control levels with and without controls. It is clear that
industrial boilers and steam-electric power plants are the most important
sources of emissions in this category, although commercial-institutional
heating plants contribute substantial emissions of sulfur oxides as well.
The control techniques adopted for this study can reduce particulate
emissions from the major sources by more than 95 percent. Control of
sulfur oxides is somewhat less effective, ranging from an estimated
50.5 percent to an estimated 80.1 percent for the two largest source
categories.
C. Industrial Processes
Eighteen industries or industry groups were included for analysis
as major sources of the six pollutants under study. Of these, 15 are
sources of particulates, three of sulfur oxides, two of carbon monoxide,
three of hydrocarbons, five of fluorides, and two of lead. Table 4-2
shows the estimated 1967 and 1976 emission levels and control effectiveness
for each pollutant by source.
4-3
-------
TABU: 4-2.- INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCES - ESTIMATES op POTENTIAL AND REDUCED KMISSION LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED COSTS
(298 Metropolitan Areas|-
l/
Quantity of Emissions _.
(Thousands uf Tons per Year)—
Sourco
Asphalt Batching
Brick and Tile
Coal Cleaning
Cement Plants
Elemental. Phosphorus
Grain:
Handling
Milling
Gray Iron Foundries
Iron and Steel
Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
Lime
Petroleum Products and
Storage
Petroleum Refineries
Phosphate Fertilizer
Primary Nonferroua
Metallurgy:
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Rubber (Tires)
Secondary Nonferrous
Metallurgy
Sulfurlc Acid
Varnish
Year
1967
FY76 U/o2'
FY76 UiV
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/O
FY76 U
1967
FY76 W/O
FY76 U
1967
FY76 W/O
FY76 W
1967
FY76 W/O
FY76 W
1967
FY76 W/O
FY76 W
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 W
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 W
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 W/O
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
PY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
PY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
PY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 U
1967
FY76 U/0
FY76 H
Part
452.0
571.0
37.8
_
-
-
64.7
92.3
14.1
239.0
280.0
16.1
2.4
3.3
0.2
1,400.0
1,730.0
26.1
274.0
347.0
5.4
166.0
255.0
29.1
1,100.0
1,460.0
93.0
561.0
847.0
120.0
181.0
253.0
20.3
_
-
-
80.0
98.4
30.7
-
-
-
6.0
8.9
1.7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.2
1.7
-
9.8
14.8
2.9
63.6
90.1
55.1
-
-
•
S°X
-
_
-
.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
_
_
-
_
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,750.0
2,150.0
1,270.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,140.0
2,380.0
227.0
200
269.5
17.2
416.0
508.0
76.7
_
_
-
-
-
-
650.0
921.0
129.0
-
-
-
CO HC F Pb
_
_ •
-
15.6
20.8
1.0
-
-
-
.
-
-
2.4
- 3.3 -
0.2
_
_
-
-
-
-
2,220.0 -
3,420.0 -
209.0 -
26.4
35.2
5.2
-
_
-
_
-
-
600.0 -
738.0 -
320.0 -
5,300.0 810.0 -
6,620.0 996.0 -
330.0 529.0 -
0.6
1.5
0.2
8.2
12.2
2.3
-
-
- - -
5.5
7.9
7.9
-
-
_
- "•"•T/ - -
n.a.1/ -
n.a.!' -
14.5
22.0
2.2
-
-
-
2.2 -
2.2 -
0.3 -
Associated Emission Control Level
(Percent)
Part
80
80
98
_
-
-
58
58
93
96
96
99.7
80
80
99.0
35
35
99.0
35
35
99.0
12
12
90
55
55
97
81
81
98
60
60
97
_
-
-
67
67
90
-
-
-
90
90
98
_
_
-
-
_
-
_
.
-
SO
80
99.0
48
48
96
46
46
67
_
-
-
SO, CO HC F Pb
-
- - _ • . ..
-
0
- 0
- 95
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 85
- 85
- 98
_
-
-
_
-
-
18
18
95
- 30
- 30
- 89
-
-
-
-
_
-
63 -
63 -
86 -
37 47 67 -
37 47 67 -
62 95 87 -
- 98
- - 98
- 99.8
- 90
- 90
- 98
25 ...
25 -
94 ...
32 96
32 ... 96
96 - - - 96
51 -
51 -
93 -
- n.a.-' -
n.a.-jV -
- n.a.^ -
48
- - 48
96
0
0 - - -
86 ...
18 -
18 -
90 -
Control Coats
(Ml U Inns of Dollars)
Investment Annual
15.4 12.3
40.8 11. A
13.1 5.3
110.0 29.6
6.6 3.1
416.0 153.0
27.4 11.0
317.3 108.2
981.0 507.0
73.0 30.3
10.6 14.5
1,080.0 0
162.0 7.1
32.1 10.0
223.3 75.8
87.0 42.0
16.2 7.1
4.7 2.2
1.9 1.3
61.9 21.8
176.0 40.8
0.8 1.0
— The 298 metropolitan areas are defined in Appendix I.
Emissions abbreviated are: particulatea (Part), sulfur oxides (S0_). carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC). fluorides (F)
in the table Indicate the emission levels meet the applicable regulation (Appendix II) or that emissions are neRllalble or do
- Estimates without Implementation of the Clean Air Act are shown.
- Estimates with implementation of the Clean Air Act are shown.
-' Not available.
and lead (Pb). Blanlu
not exist.
4-4
-------
III. COSTS
Control of emissions from stationary sources as indicated in this
study and shown in Table 4-3 will require a total estimated investment by
Fiscal Year 1976 of $6,510 million. By that year, the associated total
annual control cost, including depreciation, operating and maintenance
costs5 will amount to an estimated $2,214 million.
As noted in Table 4-3, an investment of $201 million and annual costs
of $113 million for control of solid waste disposal will reduce emissions
of particulates by 87.7 percent, carbon monoxide by 92.4 percent, and hydro-
carbons by 85.5 percent of the level of these emissions that would otherwise
occur in Fiscal Year 1976. From the analyses reported in Appendix IV, it is
estimated that approximately 54 percent of these costs will be borne by
municipalities and the remaining 46 percent by private businesses and indi-
viduals .
Table 4-3 further shows that control of stationary fuel combustion
sources will require a total investment of approximately $2,432 million by
Fiscal Year 1976 and annual costs in that year will be approximately $1,006
million. As a result, it is estimated that particulate emissions will be
reduced by 75.9 percent and sulfur oxide emissions will be reduced by 67.5
percent below the levels of emissions that would otherwise prevail as a re-
sult of fuel combustion in that year. By far the greatest share of these
costs will be paid by manufacturers and electric utilities.
4-5
-------
TABLE 4-3.- STATIONARY SOURCES - ESTIMATES OF POTENTIAL AND REDUCED EMISSION LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED COSTS
[298 Metropolitan Areas]-
Source
Solid Waste Disposal
Stationary Fuel
Combustion
,
Industrial Processes
Total
Year
1967
FY 76 W/0-
FY 76 fcA
1967
FY 76 W/0
FY 76 W
1967
FY 76 W/0
FY 76 W
1967
FY 76 W/0
FY 76 W
21
Quantity of Emissions—
(Thousands of Tons per Year)
Part
1,110
1,500
185
3,247
3,867
930
4,601
6,053
453
8,958
11,420
1,568
sox
-
-
-
11,416
14,447
4,697
5,156
6,229
1,720
16,572
20,676
6,417
CO
3,770
5,450
414
mm
-
-
7,520
10,040
539
11,290
15,490
953
HC
1,400
2,020
293
mm
-
-
1,412
1,736-
849
2,812
3,756
1,142
F
-
-
-
mm
-
-
53
73
9
53
73
9
Pb
-
-
-
_
-
-
20
30
10
20
30
10
Control Costs
(Millions of Dollars)
Investment
201
2,432
3,877
6,510
Annual
113
1,006
1,095
2,214
— Metropolitan areas are defined in Appendix I.
2/
— Emission abbreviations are: particulates (Part), sulfur oxides (SO ), carbon monoxide (CO),
hydrocarbons. (HC), fluorides (F), and lead (Pb), Blanks in the table inaicate the emission levels meet the
applicable regulation (Appendix II) or that emissions are negligible or do not exist.
o /
— Estimates without implementation of the Clean Air Act.
— Estimates with implementation of the Clean Air Act.
-------
The group of manufacturing industries included under the industrial
process category of sources will be required to invest $3,877 million
and pay annual costs of $1,095 by Fiscal Year 1976 for control of emis-
sions from their process sources (see Table 4-3). As a result, it is esti-
mated that emissions from these sources will be reduced from the levels
that would otherwise occur in that year by these percentages: particulates,
92.5 percent; sulfur oxides, 72..4 percent; carbon monoxide, 94.6 percent;
hydrocarbons, 51.1 percent; fluoride, 87.7 percent; lead, 66.7 percent.
The annual control costs relative to capacity, production, and shipments
are shown in Table 4-4.
4-7
-------
oo
TABLE 4-4,.- EXPECTED ANNUAL CONTROL COSTS RELATIVE TO CAPACITY, PRODUCTION, AND SHIPMENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCES
[Fiscal Year 1976; 298 Metropolitan Areas!
I/
Source Totals
Source ai:'l Unit of Measurement
Asphalt Batching tons of caving mixture^
Brick and Tile brick equivalents
Coal Cleaning
Cement
Elemental Phosphorus
Grain: Handling
Milling
Gray Iron Foundries tons of
Iron and Steel tons of
Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
Lime
Petroleum Products and Storage
Petroleum Refineries
Phosphate Fertilizer
Primary Nonferrous
Metallurgy: Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Rubber (Tires)
Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy
Sulfuric Acid
Varnish
tons
barrels
tons
bushels-'
tons
castings-
raw steel
tons
tons
gallons^'
barrels
tons fj^.
fi/
tons^'
tons*/
tonsi/
tons^
tires
tons
tons
gallons
Capacity-
Millions
of Units)
694.0
8,060.0
177.0
462.0
0.4
4,430.0
70.6
22.0
219.0
33.3
19.9
159.0
4,480.0
15.6
2.7
6.5i/
l.fr^
0.7
282.0
3.0
47.2
28.0
Production-
Millions of
Units)
227.0
6,660.0
167.0
295.0
0.4
12,100.0
58.8
18.0
165.0
25.3
15.8
1,590.0
3,300.0
8.5
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.5
266.0
2.6
34.7
21.8
Value of
Shipments
(Billions
of Dollars)
1.6
0.2
0.8
0.9
0.1
N/A^7
4.8
3.5
17.4
3.7
0.3
19.5
18.6
1.8
1.1
0.8
0.1
0.3
4.6
1.8
0.3
0.1
Annual
Control
Cost
(Millions
of
Dollars)
12.3
11.6
5.3
29.6
3.1
153.0
11.0
108.2
507.0
30.2
14.5
0
7.1
10.0
75.8
42.0I/
7.1^
2.2^
1.3
21.8
40.8
1.0
Cost per Unit
of Annual Cap.
(Dollars per
Unit)
0.018
0.001
0.030
0.064
7.750
0.345
0.156
4.947
2.315
0.910
0.729
0
0.002
0.641
28.100
6.450
4.438
3.143
0.005
7.267
0.864
0.043
Cost Ratios
Cost per Unit
of Annual Prod.
(Dollars per
Unit)
0.055
0.002
0.032
0.100
7.750
0.013
0.187
6.039
3.073
1.200
0.918
0
0.002
1.176
31.500
46.600
23.600
4.400
0.005
8.385
1.176
0.055
Cost per Dollar
of Shipment
(Percent)
0.7
5.8
0.8
3.3
3.1
N/A^'
0.2
3.1
2.9
0.8
4.8
0
0.04
0.6
6.9
5.3
7.1
0.7
0.03
1.2
13.6
1.0
— Estimated costs for controlling particulate, sulfur oxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, fluoride and lead emissions from facilities expected to be
operating in fiscal year 1976. The metropolitan areas are defined in Appendix I.
— Capacity and production are in millions of units (tons, etc.) per year unless otherwise noted in footnotes.
— Capacity is calculated assuming 1,000 operating hours per year.
4/
— Capacity is in million bushels of storage space; production, million bushels of throughput.
— Capacity is in billion gallons of gasoline storage space; production, billion gallons of gasoline handled.
—"Tons" applies to smelters.
— Credit for Increased sulfuric acid production is not included.
—' Not applicable.
—' Tons of ore concentrate are shown.
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Chapter 5
Economic Impact of the Cost of Controlling
Emissions from Stationary Sources
I. INTRODUCTION
Analysis of the economic impact of control costs on stationary sources
starts with the required investment and annual costs required to control indi-
vidual sources and the direct individual burden relative to the financial
strength of each. It then considers the effect of these costs on the
market for products and finally the aggregate impact on selected indus-
trial sectors and the national economy.
The detailed cost analyses for industrial process sources, stationary
combustion sources, and solid waste disposal are shown in Appendix IV.
This chapter summarizes these analyses and discusses the general determi-
nants of economic impact in these categories.
II. GENERAL PARAMETERS AFFECTING ECONOMIC IMPACT
A. Type of Source and Quantity of Emissions
Combustion of fossil fuels is a major source of particulate and
sulfur oxide emissions, for which control costs will be substantial. It
is difficult to estimate the economic impact of these costs on commercial
and institutional establishments because of their great diversity. Com-
mercial enterprises that rent their quarters may be very reluctant to pay
increased rents to compensate property owners for control costs. Thus,
the owners of older store and office buildings may have to absorb these
costs in order to keep tenants. But, because it is older buildings that
are most probably heated by coal-fired boilers, for which control costs
will be highest, the effect may be to hasten the obsolescence of these
structures and resultant changes in use patterns. Firms may move to
newer quarters and property may change hands, rather than have the
increased cost reflected in the prices charged by the firms-^ue to an in-
crease fn.-rentals of the older facilities.
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The impact on institutions such as schools and hospitals will tend
to be borne by taxpayers for publicly owned institutions, while private
owners may face reactions similar to the commercial patterns, but with
less flexibility of response alternatives.
Industry uses substantial quantities of fossil fuels to product steam
for heat and power, thereby contributing significantly to pollutant emissions.
Fuel consumption in industrial boilers varies greatly from one industry to
another so the significance of this source of pollution for any particular
metropolitan area depends upon the mix of industrial plants present. For
the firms involved, controlling emissions from this source will generally
require switching to a low sulfur fuel. This may require an initial invest-
ment to convert the burner plus an increase in the annual cost of fuel.
Typically, such costs should require a change in business operations for the
firm and the costs will probably be passed on through the general pricing
formula.
The impact of control costs on steam powered electric generating plants
will be much more substantial than for other fuel consumers. They consume
very large quantities resulting in large pollutant emissions concentrated
in particular locations. Control problems and associated costs are much
larger per plant, emission standards may be considerably more stringent,
and, in most instances, control cannot be accomplished by fuel switching
where supplies of low sulfur fuels are inadequate Csee Appendix V).
At the other extreme, although residential heating plants are a signi-
ficant source of pollution, zero control costs are shown for this source
category because the trend of fuel use indicates that emissions in excess
of applicable standards will soon be negligible. Coal furnaces are almost
never installed in new single-family and very seldom in new multifamily
dwellings. Coal furnaces are being replaced with oil, gas, or electric
heating units as they wear out. In residential heating, oil and gas
seldom produce significant emissions, since distillate oil and natural
gas are very clean fuels. Air pollution controls will, therefore, have
no effect on residential property owners.
For the industrial process sources covered in this report, control
costs and the impact of these costs vary greatly depending upon the technolo-
gical difficulty of controlling the source of pollution and the volumes of the
5-2
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pollutants involved. In some instances, adequate control can be achieved
only through the use of equipment and materials that are still relatively
unproven and expensive, as in primary aluminum smelting. In others, the
controls are relatively simple and economical, such as the use of floating
roofs for petroleum storage tanks.
B. Structure of Industry and Market
The economic impact of control costs on individual firms depends not
only on the magnitude of the cost relative to the revenue and profit of
the firm, but also on its competitive relationship with the other firms
in its industry and competing industries and the nature of the market
demand to which it sells. An industry characterized by a small number of
very large firms selling under conditions of oligopolistic competition
with price leadership, such as the steel industry, may be expected to shift
increased costs into price without loss of sales and revenues in most
instances. On the other hand, an industry such as gray iron foundries,
in which there are many small firms engaging frequently in ruthless
competition for custom orders from large customer firms, will find that
price adjustments are very difficult to obtain. The smaller and less
efficient firms that are least able to absorb increased costs may be
those least able to increase prices; marginal firms will almost certainly
be forced to close when required to introduce pollution controls that
necessitate investment and operating costs but do not increase production.
Other industries include some older plants that are less efficient
and profitable than their newer competitors, as is the case in cement
production. The effect of control costs may then be to hasten closing or
modernization of older plants to maintain the competitive position of the
firm in a market that will accept a price increase covering only part of
the increased cost.
The production of varnish using a cooked resin component, which is
the source of pollutant emissions in that instance, illustrates another
impact pattern. As one minor component of the larger industry complex
encompassing all industrial and trade coatings, this type of varnish is
already being gradually phased out by most producers. The impact of
control costs may be expected to hasten the decline in production of this
product as firms choose to discontinue the product rather than incur any
control cost.
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The buyer side of the product market also has an obvious influence on
the ability of firms to shift control costs. For processes such as grain
storage, the total cost is small relative to the user's ultimate product
price. In addition, grain buyers have no effective alternative to the
present system of elevator storage and must pay whatever price is charged.
Therefore, control cost for grain storage appears fully shiftable.
One other important market pattern is that of regulated industries.
Steam electric power producers will be able to recover control costs only
to the extent that regulatory agencies include these costs in the rate
base and approve rate increases. It may be assumed that regulatory agencies
will do so, but there will almost certainly be time lags between the
incurrance of added costs and the introduction of new rates during which
producers will have to absorb the costs in the form of reduced profits.
III. SPECIFIC IMPACT ON FIRMS IN EIGHTEEN INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCES
An analysis was made for this study of the impact of control costs
on the eighteen industry sources discussed in Chapter 4. To the extent that
data were available, the probable effects of control costs on the operation
and structure of both firms and the industry were estimated, as well as the
probability of price changes and the market reaction to them. These results
are summarized in this section with a fuller statement provided in Appen-
dix IV.
A. Asphalt Batching
Over 80 percent of this industry are within the 298 metropolitan
areas. The total annual control cost for these firms is estimated to
be $12.3 million, or about $15,357 per firm by FY 1976. Prices will rise
in most areas by the full amount of the cost of control, increasing prices
by $0.05 to $0.06 per ton at the plant. A few firms will find that most
of their competitors are outside the control regions so that their prices
cannot be increased significantly. Firms in this position could experience
a 20-50 percent decrease in profits before taxes forcing them to probably
discontinue operations or move to a new location. Some other firms, unable
to finance the capital investment required for control, may also be forced
to discontinue operations at their present locations.
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B. Brick and Tile
The brick and tile industry faces very stiff competition from other
building materials suppliers so that its share of the construction market
has been declining. The projected FY 1976 annual control cost of $11.6
million for the firms in the 298 metropolitan areas equals approximately
$1.76 per thousand brick or brick equivalents making it probable that
a price increase of this magnitude would reduce sales significantly.
It is estimated that prices will rise by no more than $1.00 to $1.10 per
thousand, and that this will be accompanied by closing or merger of some
marginal firms, a lower growth rate for the industry as a whole than would
otherwise occur, and depressed earnings for most firms.
C. Coal Cleaning
The FY 1967 annual control cost for coal cleaning plants in the 298
metropolitan areas is estimated to be $5.3 million, or $0.03 per ton of
coal. It is anticipated that this cost will be included in the price
with no resultant burden on profits or sales for the firms involved.
D. Cement
Cement plants built since 1960 have been designed to provide effective
control of pollutant emissions. Older plants, which account for 76 percent
of the capacity of the industry, need additional control equipment to
improve their existing control systems or to build entirely new systems.
Thus, the impact of control costs on any firm will depend upon the number
of its plants in the 24 percent of the industry that is now fully controlled,
the 63 percent now partially controlled, or the 13 percent requiring new
control systems. Annual control costs for typical plants in FY 1976 for the
most expensive group needing new control systems are estimated to be in the
range of $78,000 to $210,000 per plant, or $0.087 to $0.104 per barrel of
cement produced. Because the costs are spread unevenly throughout the firms
in the industry, and because it appears that the newer plants that are already
controlled are the more efficient producers, it is probable that prices in
most markets will increase little if at all. The current trend of large and
highly efficient firms invading the market territories of older firms and
the growing competition of substitute products strengthens this probability.
As a result, the trend toward replacement of old plants may accelerate. Some
reduction of the industry growth rate and lower profit margins are also
anticipated.
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E. Elemental Phosphorus arid Phosphate Fertilizer
All of the firms producing elemental phosphorus have plants within the
298 metropolitan areas, but these account for less than half the phos-
phorus production in the U.S. Annual control costs for the plants in-
volved will be approximately $3.1 million, or $7.80 per ton on the average.
It is estimated that the price effect resulting from this cost increase
will be a rise of less than one percent, or approximately $3.90 per ton,
reflecting the fact that only part of the production of each of the seven
firms in the market would be affected under the proposed regulations. A
price increase of this magnitude would probably not affect the sale of
elemental phosphorus or phosphoric acid for industrial use significantly.
The firms producing elemental phosphorus are among those producing
phosphate fertilizer and also selling phosphoric acid to other fertilizer
manufacturers. It was not possible in this study to determine the impact
of control costs applicable to the production of elemental phosphorus
within the framework of revenues and profits from the multiple product
operations of the firms. Control costs for fertilizer production were
similarly blended into overall cost and revenue in such a way as to make
analysis of the impact on profits impossible without more detailed data
than were available at this time.
Annual control cost for all producers of phosphate fertilizer with-
in the 298 metropolitan regions, estimated at $6.91 million for Fiscal
Year 1976, varies depending upon the type of fertilizer produced. The
average cost amounts to approximately $1.70 per ton of fertilizer produced,
approximately the control cost per ton for production of normal superphosphate.
Control cost for production of ammonium phosphate is estimated to be approxi-
mately half the average annual cost, the control cost for triple super-
phosphate being slightly above the average. It appears that these costs
will be entirely incorporated into price, since demand has a very low price
elasticity. The impact of these price increases can be evaluated in
relation to the cost of nutrients delivered on the farm. Because of the
control costs, the delivered price of the P205 equivalent in normal or triple
superphosphate may be expected to increase in about the same proportion as the
average fertilizer production costs. This would maintain the value advan-
tage already established for triple superphosphate due to lower
5-6
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transportation cost in most locations. The projected price increase for
ammonium phosphate is approximately half that of other phosphate fertilizers,
giving it an added price advantage. If the average price of phosphate
fertilizer increases by $0.70 to $1.00 per ton, it is expected that the
trend toward reduction of production of normal superphosphate in favor of
the two other fertilizer forms considered will be accelerated. As a result,
some smaller producers making only normal superphosphate may be forced to
discontinue production.
F. Grain Milling and Handling
This analysis was limited to grain elevators and grain mills producing
animal feeds, since other types of milling were reported to be well controlled.
Control of particulate emissions projected for storage, transfer, and milling
of grain was found to require an annual cost by FY 1976 of $164 million, of
which $153 million would be for controls on grain elevators and $11 million
for controls on feed mills. The impact of these costs can only be approxi-
mated due to the complexity of the industry structure.
Of the 4,098 grain elevators in the 298 metropolitan areas, 71
percent have a capacity of less than 500,000 bushels; most of these are
probably country elevators for temporary storage of grain. The remainder
are primarily larger terminal elevators, many of them connected to mills of
various types. There were also 2,155 feed mills covered in this study.
Some of these are operated in conjunction with country elevators and some
with terminal elevators. Further complexity is added by the fact that some
feed mill operations are part of very large grain-processing firms making
many products and also operating many grain elevators. Many smaller firms
operate grain elevators with some of these also including feed mills in their
operations.
Lacking detailed data on many of the firms and facilities involved,
it was possible only to estimate the probable overall impact of control
costs. This indicates that annual control costs for country elevators
would be just under $10,000 per year on the average, with $78,000 per year
for terminal elevators and $4,000 per year for feed mills. These costs will
probably be shifted entirely into price amounting to an increase of $0.0127
per bushel of grain stored and $0.187 per ton of feed milled.
5-7
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G. Gray Iron Foundries
The annual cost of control for the 1,115 foundries within the 298
metropolitan areas, representing 77 percent of the industry, is
estimated to be $108.2 million for Fiscal Year 1976. Cost will vary sub-
stantially depending on the size of the plant, ranging from 0.7 percent of
the cost of castings for large foundries to approximately 3 percent in small
single cupola foundries. Net income before taxes for these firms averages
6.8 percent for the large foundries and 5.8 percent for small ones.
With low rates of return normal for the industry, it would appear
that as much as possible of the added cost of controls would be shifted
to the customers through price increases, Demand for castings is relatively
insensitive to price increases since castings make only a small contribution
to the cost of producing machinery and other products of the customer indus-
tries. Foundries find it very difficult to increase price, however, since
this is a market in which many relatively small firms compete strongly
for custom orders from a much smaller number of large customers. Ruthless
competition among sellers plus the greater financial and market strength
of buyers maintain strong pressures to hold prices down. As a result, prices
are expected to rise only approximately two percent on the average, causing
reduced profits for approximately one-third of the firms in the industry.
The smaller and less efficient firms may therefore be expected to close or
to merge with others to form more efficient larger production units.
H. Iron and Steel
The steel industry is usually described as an oligopoly characterized
by administered prices and price leadership. In such an industry the added
costs of air pollution control will probably be passed on to consumers
through price increases whenever the industry decides to adjust its price
structure in response to the overall cost and market pattern. Since general
economic expansion, accompanied by some inflation, is anticipated through
Fiscal Year 1976, and since the steel industry has reached agreement with
foreign producers to limit imports of steel into this country to a signi-
ficant degree, it is expected that steel prices will rise by the full amount
of control costs, with the lowest control cost per ton of steel produced
found in the use of electric arc furnaces, the highest for open hearth
furnaces, and intermediate for basic oxygen furnaces. Examination of
5-8
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typical mixes of production equipment representative of the industry
indicates that this range of cost will be from $0.37 to $1.91 per ton of
finished steel produced.
I. Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
The kraft paper industry has tended in recent years to follow a cycle
of approximately five years duration during which prices, revenues, and
profits have fluctuated in response to uneven investment. Demand growth
has been anticipated by heavy investment, leading to temporary overcapa-
city, low prices, and low profits. As demand has caught up to productive
capacity, prices and profits have risen, leading to improved expectations
and repeated overinvestment. The industry is currently in the rising
phase of this cycle which should persist into 1972. This period of ex-
panding investment should include much of the required investment in
control equipment. By FY 1976 it is expected that annual control cost will
be $30.3 million for the aggregate industry with nearly all of this being
incorporated in the price structure.
By FY 1976, almost all pulp production will be by integrated firms rather
than independent pulp producers. This is the direction in which the industry
has been moving and it will probably be accelerated by the requirement of
pollution controls that will make independent production less viable economically.
J. Lime
The cost of controlling emissions from lime kilns in the 298
metropolitan areas will be approximately $14.5 million per year by FY 1976.
Analysis of typical firms of various sizes indicates that cost will range
from $0.15 to $0.60 per ton of lime produced, with costs being somewhat higher
per ton of production for small firms than for large ones, and higher for
operators of rotary kilns than for vertical kilns.
This is a highly competitive industry, eomplicated by the fact that a
significant fraction of industrial customers have bought or constructed lime
production facilities. Despite a steadily rising demand for open market lime,
competition among producers, plus the fact that some plants will be outside
control areas, is expected to prevent a general price rise for lime. Since
the costs involved are relatively small, cost absorption by the producers
is not expected to have serious adverse effects, although some very small
plants may be closed.
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K. Petroleum Refining and Storage
Bulk storage facilities for petroleum products are almost entirely
owned by petroleum refining companies so that this analysis of the impact
of control costs for both storage and refining is treated as one. The
economic impact on these firms will be primarily from the required invest-
ment of $162 million for control of refinery processes and $1,082 million
to control storage tanks. The recovery of products should completely
offset the annual costs for storage facilities and partially offset annual
costs for refineries, with the result that net annual control costs will
amount to $7.1 million per year by Fiscal Year 1976. If this cost were
applied entirely to gasoline production, it would be approximately $0.0021
per barrel, small enough to have no appreciable effect on the firms or the
market. The indicated required investment, while large, appears to be
within the capacity of the industry, but may require some firms to modify
their investment plans.
L. Primary and Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy
The company and market structures for production and sales of primary
and secondary aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc are so closely interrelated
that analysis of the impact of air pollution control costs has been made
of the composite industrial complex. Until recently primary aluminum
production was carried on by firms producing only that metal, but in the
last few years a trend toward integration into a primary nonferrous metals
production sector has appeared. The numerous substitution possibilities
among these metals for various uses, and between primary and secondary
production, make it necessary to consider the markets for all four
simultaneously; price impacts are separately estimated as are the effects
on firms to the extent possible.
Production of each of the four primary metals is dominated by three
or four large firms, with a few smaller firms in competition. All of the
firms involved are stable and generally profitable, resulting in consi~
derable effective competition. The secondary industry, in contrast, is
composed of many firms, more than half of which are small firms with fewer
than 20 employees. Primary producers have substantial market power,
generally well-balanced by the strength of large firms that make up most of
5-10
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the market demands. Secondary producers, however, have relatively much
less ability to control the market; their prices and production are
generally determined by the primary market.
Annual control costs for primary aluminum production varies according
to the process employed. Average annual cost is estimated to be $0.013 per
pound produced with the prebaked process, $0.016 per pound for the horizontal
spike soderberg process, and $0.011 per pound for the vertical spike
soderberg process. It is probable that considerable amounts of alumina
and cryolite may be recovered by the required control equipment from pre-
baked and vertical spike soderberg operations, but not from horizontal
spike soderberg operations. This could result in net annual costs for
the first two of less than half that required for control of horizontal
spike soderberg operations. Such a cost differential could significantly
reduce the profits of a firm primarily dependent on use of the horizontal
spike soderberg process. The competitive nature of this market is such
that prices may be expected to rise in response to initiation of control
expenses, but only sufficiently to cover the cost affecting a major
share of the firms and output.
Producers of secondary aluminum will experience annual control costs
of approximately $0.0032 per pound in the typical plant. It is probable
that secondary aluminum producers will have to absorb much of this control
cost if the primary price does not increase enough to allow the secondary
price to rise. If this occurs, some of the marginal secondary producers
may not be able to continue.
Analysis of primary and secondary producers of copper, lead, and zinc
shows a somewhat similar pattern. Since the control method for primary
smelters includes operation of contact acid plants to remove sulfur oxides,
sulfuric acid is produced as a salable byproduct. Net annual control cost
for primary smelters depends in part on the revenue realized from the sale
of acid. Some firms already operate acid plants in conjunction witK smelters,
the acid from these sources being sold for approximately $14 per ton. To
the extent that this is now being done, it presumably is a profitable
operation. It may be presumed, however, that smelters now being operated
without acid plants to utilize the available sulfur oxides do not do so
because the firms involved have determined that acid could not be profitably
5-11
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produced. This may be either because the distance to a potential market
is too great or because it is felt that market demand is not sufficient
to absorb large additional quantities without sharp price reductions.
Therefore, acid produced as a byproduct of air pollution control probably
can be sold only at a price much below the present market and may not be
marketable at all.
Annual control costs for a typical copper smelting plant already operating
an acid plant would be approximately $1,370,000 or $0.0095 per pound of
copper produced. If an acid plant is added where none is now in operation,
and the acid sold at the present market price, annual costs would increase
to $4,500,000 per year, less revenue of $2,500,000, and a net cost of
$0.012 per pound of copper produced. Actual net annual costs will probably
be somewhat higher.
Since an acid plant alone provides adequate control of emissions from
a lead or zinc smelter, those firms now operating acid plants need incur
no additional control cost. Addition of an acid plant to a lead or zinc
smelter would result typically in an annual control cost of $2,500,000,
with an equal amount of byproduct revenue if the acid were salable at
$14 per ton.
Analysis of control of secondary copper, lead, and zinc plants
indicates that annual control costs will be $0.0037 per pound for copper,
$0.0019 per pound for lead, and $0.0031 per pound for zinc.
Despite the significant increased costs that may result from installations
of air pollution controls, the current market for copper, lead, and zinc
does not indicate an equivalent price increase over the next several years.
Intense foreign competition, the uneven impact of controls on domestic
producers, and probable overcapacity argue against a general rise in the
price of any of these metals. Discontinuance of the use of lead as an
additive for gasoline would appear likely to cause a price decline for that
metal, in fact. It is probable, therefore, that, as in aluminum, some
small and marginal secondary producers of copper, lead, and zinc may be
adversely affected by control -costs. Secondary lead producers may be
particularly hard hit with little growth predicted after 1971 for primary
lead producers.
5-12
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M. Rubber
Air pollution controls to prevent emissions of carbon black during
automobile tire manufacture are specified in this analysis. However, the
value of carbon black recovered more than offsets the annual control cost,
leaving no net annual cost for this process. A very small additional
cost, equal to approximately $0.005 per tire, will be required for after-
burners to control hydrocarbon emissions.
N. Sulfuric Acid
The impact of air pollution control costs and the supply of sulfur
and sulfur products associated with them is the subject of a separate
study now under way. This study should result in an analysis which
covers the sulfuric acid industry, among others, in great detail; there-
fore, no impact analysis of this industry was made for this study.
0. Varnish
Control of emissions from varnish cookers, the only portion of the
industry emitting significant amounts of pollutants, will require annual
costs equal to approximately $0.10 per gallon of varnish produced.
Analysis of the impact of this control cost on the market and on pro*-
ducing firms was hampered by the fact that virtually no data were available
for varnish as a separate product distinguished from other industrial and
trade coatings. It was determined, however, that production of varnish
produced from cooked resins is rapidly declining. Synthetic varnishes
apparently are taking over this market. It seems probable, therefore,
that the primary effect of control costs will be to accelerate the decline
in production of this product.
IV. CONTROL OF FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION
Special technical economic problems have been revealed by the
analysis of stationary fuel combustion pollution sources. Superficially,
the most obvious control technique would appear to be regulations requiring
the use of low sulfur fuels to prevent the emission of sulfur oxides.
It is increasingly apparent, however, that supplies of natural gas cannot
be increased sufficiently to meet all the demands of fuel users who would
prefer this fuel. Fuel oil supplies, also, are unlikely to be adequate
5-13
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for projected demands. Rapidly increasing demands for gasoline and jet
fuel compete sharply with distillate fuel oil, pushing refineries to produce
maximum quantities of these various light fractions of petroleum. As a
result, production of residual fuel oil is not increasing as rapidly as
otherwise would be expected. Yet, the very rapid growth in demand for
electricity is resulting in increased generating capacity, much of which
would be designed to consume residual fuel oil if this fuel were available
in assured supply. Imports of residual fuel oil are restricted under
the oil quota system making increased supply from this source, in amounts
perhaps doubling present imports, unlikely. Even unlimited imports would
ease the shortage only if low-sulfur oil were available whereas many
foreign crude oils have very high sulfur content. 'A switch to low-sulfur
fuels probably cannot, therefore, be accomplished by substituting natural
gas and low-sulfur residual oil for current consumption of high-sulfur
oil or coal. Finally, supplies of coal are potentially very large, but much
of this has a sulfur content in excess of the one percent content generally
applied as the standard acceptable for sulfur oxide emissions.
It appears, therefore, that controls must be based on some combination
of consumption of low-sulfur fuels, desulfurization of fuels, and
installation of mechanical devices to remove sulfur oxides from flue gases.
An extended analysis of this problem is given in Appendix V.
V. AGGREGATE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
Two types of aggregate economic impact were examined in this study. The
automobile and construction industries were identified as being industries
purchasing many of the products of the industries to which air pollution
controls will be applied. An analysis was made, therefore, of the cumulative
effect of price increases resulting from control costs on the cost of
producing automobiles and private construction. The other measure of
aggregate impact used was the estimated change in the level of prices
resulting from the specific price increases estimated for each subject
industry. The change in the general price level was measured by the
implicit GNP deflator since this appeared to be the most appropriate
5-14
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index for the purpose. Input-output analysis was used for both sets of
estimates and a detailed explanation of the methodology and results of
these studies is given in Appendix VI.
It is estimated that the cumulative impact of control costs affecting
inputs to the construction industry will be approximately $600 million
per year, resulting in a cost increase of 0.6 percent. The cumulative
impact on the automobile industry, exclusive of direct cost increases
resulting from controls on automobile exhaust emissions, is estimated
at $225 million per year, or $22.50 per car produced if 10 million vehicles
were manufactured.
The overall impact of price changes resulting from controls is
estimated to increase the price level by 0.14 percent.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
A. General Economic Impact of Air Pollution Control
The foregoing analyses indicate that control of air pollution
emissions from solid waste disposal, stationary fuel combustion, and
industrial processes will require an investment of approximately
$6.510 billion to control the capacity estimated to be in existence
in the 298 metropolitan areas in Fiscal Year 1976. This estimate
is based on projected industrial and population growth, which will sub-
stantially increase the sources of pollution and required investment
in control equipment over that required for 1967. The total estimated
annual cost of these controls, including depreciation, finance, and
operating expenses, would then amount to approximately $2.214 billion
per year by Fiscal Year 1976.
These figures are large in absolute amounts; however, their signi-
ficance can be shown more clearly by comparing them with the related
figures for the national economy. The $ 6.510 billion investment in
air pollution control equipment is less than 5 percent of the $126
billion of gross private investment in the United States for the year
1968. Similarly, if the gross national product (GNP) of the United.
States in Fiscal Year 1976 is $1.2 trillion, the annual cost of $2.214
billion in that year will be less than 0.2 percent of the nation's gross
output.
5-15
-------
The investment requirements and annual costs estimated are for
controls that would substantially reduce air pollution emissions in
the United States. The effects of the controls on emissions are
summarized in Table 5-1.
Analysis of the economic impact of projected requirements for
air pollution control was concentrated on eighteen industrial process
sources and only an analysis of direct costs and emission reductions
was made for solid waste disposal and stationary fuel combustion. Some
indication of the economic significance of the projected costs in the
latter two sectors has become apparent, however.
TABLE 5-1. - ESTIMATED EMISSIONS FROM ALL STATIONARY SOURCES, FY1976
[298 Metropolitan Areas]
Estimated Emissions with
1967 Control Levels
(thousands of tons)
Emissions in Compliance
with Assumed Standards
(thousands of tons)
Reduction of Pollutants
(thousands of tons)
Percentage Reduction
Emissions
Part.
11,420
1,568
9,852
86.2
sox
20,676
6,417
14,259
68.9
CO
15,490
953
14,537
93.8
HC
3.756
1,142
2,614
69.6
F
73
9
64
87.7
Pb
30
10
20
66.7
B. Solid Waste Disposal
Solid waste disposal in the 298 metropolitan areas will require
an estimated total investment of $201 million by Fiscal Year 1976 and
an annual cost that will amount to $113 million. Approximately 46
percent of these amounts will be borne by private individuals and
businesses and 54 percent by municipal government. The costs borne
by the municipal government may be passed on to the population within
the 298 metropolitan areas or just to those people residing in an area
where solid waste collection is being municipally provided. The range
5-16
-------
of possible per capita costs can be illustrated as follows:
• If the municipal costs were shared equally by the 186
million people estimated in the 298 metropolitan areas
in Fiscal Year 1976, the per capita burden would be
$0.58 for investment and $0.33 per year for annual costs.
Both of these costs would presumably be financed out
of local government taxes.
• Since only 39 percent of municipally collected waste is
disposed of by methods requiring new or additional air
pollution control, it might be postulated that only
39 percent of the population of these areas would have
to pay the added costs. Using this assumption, the per
capita costs would be $1.49 for investment and $0.84
per year for annual costs.
C. jtationary Fuel Combustion
The investment requirements and annual costs of air pollution
control of heat and power production in commercial, institutional,
and industrial establishments will be broadly spread throughout
the economy. More than $1 billion of investment may be required
of these firms and institutions by Fiscal Year 1976 and annual
costs will be approximately $580 million by that year. These
costs will be shared by approximately 1.2 million sources. The
amount required of each establishment will depend upon its size
and its need for steam for its operating processes. Without
detailed knowledge of these factors, it is not possible to
estimate the economic impact of the projected control requirements.
Steam-electric power plants will have investment requirements
and annual costs almost equal to the other stationary combustion
sources combined. When these costs are worked into the rate base
structure of the industry, it is estimated that they will provide
justification for an increase of approximately 2 percent in the
average price of electricity. This cost will be diffused into
the entire economy, making a small marginal contribution to many
other cost patterns.
5-17
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D. Industrial Processes
Analysis of the Impact of annual control costs on the industries
affected indicates that:
• Firms in seven of the 17 industries studied will be
able to pass these added costs on to their customers
in the form of higher prices. These are the asphalt
batching, coal cleaning, elemental phosphorus, phos-
phate fertilizer, grain milling and handling, iron and
steel, and kraft (sulfate) pulp industries.
• Firms in three industries are expected to recover
sufficient quantities of valuable materials in con-
trolling emissions to offset the entire annual cost
of control. This is the case for petroleum refining,
petroleum storage, and rubber (tires). Some primary
aluminum producers also fall into this category although
the rest of the nonferrous metallurgical industry does
not.
• Firms in the other seven industries will probably have
to absorb all or part of the control costs, which will
reduce their revenue from sales, taxes paid, and net
profits. In four of these industries—cement, secondary
nonferrous metallurgy, varnish, and gray iron foundries—
firms may find that less than half of their annual control
costs can be recovered by increasing prices. The brick
and tile, lime, and primary nonferrous metallurgical
industries will recover a larger share of control cost,
but probably not the entire amount.
• Those prices that are increased will not rise by more
than approximately 2 1/2 percent as a result of air
pollution control costs. Those increases which may
exceed 2 percent are for brick and tile, elemental
phosphorus, gray iron, and primary zinc.
• Increases in the cost of materials used by the auto-
mobile and construction industries, which use many of
the products included in this study, may lead to an
5-18
-------
increase in the price of an automobile of about $22.50 and
in the cost of a new home of about $100, assuming 25
percent of the construction costs are for new housing
units.
The aggregate effect of price increases induced by
air pollution control costs will increase the national
price level by approximately 0.14 percent.
A number of marginal firms may be forced to close or
to enter different product lines. This effect will
apparently be confined primarily to the secondary non-
ferrous metallurgical, varnish, and gray iron industries.
Some brick and tile and cement plants may become sub-
marginal, also.
No appreciable effect is predicted for the general
level of employment or for employment in specific occupations,
5-19
-------
APPENDIX I
Selection of 298 Metropolitan Areas
-------
APPENDIX I
Selection of 298 Metropolitan Areas
The Clean Air Act, as amended, specified a plan for control of
air pollution on a regional basis. In brief, after the U. S. Government
has issued air quality criteria and a report on control techniques for
a specific type of air pollutant, State governments are expected to
adopt and implement air quality standards for that pollutant applicable
to the air quality control regions (AQCR's) designated.
Estimates of cost are presented for stationary source controls
in 298 metropolitan areas arbitrarily selected as regions. The 298
metropolitan areas reflect the anticipated number of AQCR's for the
5-year period covered by this report. All standard metropolitan
statistical areas (SMSA's) are included as a part of a region. Two
or more adjacent SMSA's appearing to have a mutual problem were com-
bined into one region. Non-SMSA based regions were centered upon
a community of 25,000 population, contiguous communities showing a
common problem, communities containing known major point sources, or
central communities within a large air shed. Selection and compi-
lation of these regions does not necessarily imply intentions on the
part of APCO to designate or not to designate them as AQCR's. Table
1-1 was compiled on the basis of information available as of June 1, 1970.
Information pertaining to the designation of AQCR's after that date
has not been considered in this report.
1-1
-------
TABLE 1-1.- LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS
1. Aberdeen (S. Dak.)
2. Aberdeen-Hoquiam (Wash.)
3. Abilene (Tex.)
4. Alamogordo (N. Hex.)
5. Alamosa (Colo.)
6. Albany (Ga.)
7. Albany-Schnectady-Troy-Amsterdam (N.Y.)
8. Albuquerque (N. Hex.)
9. Allentown-Easton-Phillipsburg (N. J., Penn.)
10. Atnarillo (Tex.)
11. Anchorage (Alaska)
12. Ann Arbor-Jackson (Mich.)
13. Asheville (N. C.)
14. Astoria (Oreg.)
15. Athens (Ga.)
16. Atlanta (Ga.)
17. Atlantic City-Southeast New Jersey (N. J.)
18. Augusta-Aiken (Ga., S. C.)
19. Augusta-Waterville-Skowhegan (Maine)
20. Austin (Tex.)
21. Bakersfield (Calif.)
22. Baltimore (Md.)
23. Bangor (Maine)
24. Bay City-Saginaw-Midland (Mich.)
25. Bellingham (Wash.)
26. Berlin-Rumford (N.H., Maine)
27. Big Spring (Tex.)
28. Billings (Mont.)
29. Binghamton (N. Y., Penn.)
30. Birmingham (Ala.)
31. Bismark-Mandan (N. Dak.)
32. Bloomington (Ind.)
33. Bloomington (111.)
1-2
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TABLE 1-1. - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
34. Bluefield-Princeton (W. Va.)
35. Blytheville (Ark., Mo., Tenn.)
36. Boise (Idaho)
37. Boston (Mass.)
38. Bowling Green (Ky.)
39. Bozeman (Mont.)
40. Bristol-Johnson City-Kingsport CTenn., W. Va.)
41. Brunswick (Ga.)
42. Bryan (Tex.)
43. Butte-Anaconda (Mont.)
44. Cape Girardeau-Caruthersville (Mo.)
45. Carbondale-Marion-Harrisburg (111.)
46. Casper (Wyo.)
47. Cedar Rapids-Iowa City (Iowa)
48. Champaign-Urban-Danville (111.)
49. Champlain Valley (N. Y., Vt.)
50. Charleston (S. C.)
51. Charleston (W. Va.)
52. Charleston-Matton (111.)
53. Charlotte (N. C., S. C.)
54. Charlottesville (Va.)
55. Chattanooga (Ga., Tenn.)
56. Cheyenne (Wyo.)
57. Chicago (111., Ind.)
58. Chico-Oroville (Calif.)
59. Cincinnati (Ind., Ky., Ohio)
60. Clarksburg-Fairmont-Morgantown (W. Va.)
61. Cleveland (Ohio)
62. Clovis (N. Mex.)
63. Colorado Springs (Colo.)
64. Columbia (S. C.)
65. Columbia-Jefferson City (Mo.)
66. Columbus-Newark (Ohio)
67. Columbus-Phoenix City (Ala., Ga.)
68. Corpus Christi (Tex.)
-------
TABLE 1-1. - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
69. Cumberland-Keyser (Md., W. Va.)
70. Dallas-Fort Worth (Tex.)
71. Dayton (Ohio)
72. Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (111., Iowa)
73. Danville (N. C., Va.)
74. Decatur (111.)
75. Denver (Colo.)
76. Des Moines-Ames (Iowa)
77. Detroit-Port Huron (Mich.)
78. Dothan (Ala.)
79. Douglas-Lordsburg (Ariz., N. Mex.)
80. Dover (Del.)
81. Dubuque (111., Iowa, Wis.)
82. Duluth-Superior (Minn., Wis.)
83. Eau Claire (Wis.)
84. El Centro-Brawley (Calif.)
85. El Dorado (Ark., La.)
86. Elmira-Corning-Ithaca (N. Y.)
87. El Paso (N. Mex., Tex.)
88. Enid (Okla.)
89. Eureka (Calif.)
90. Evansville-Owensboro-Henderson (Ind., Ky.)
91. Fairbanks (Alaska)
92. Fargo-Moorhead (Minn., N. Dak.)
93. Fayetteville (N. C.)
94. Flagstaff (Ariz.)
95. Flint (Mich.)
96. Florence-Corinth (Ala., Miss., Tenn.)
97. Florence (S. C.)
98. Fort Collins (Colo.)
99. Fort Dodge (Iowa)
100. Fort Myers (Fla.)
101. Fort Pierce-Vero Beach (Fla.)
1-4
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TABLE 1-1. - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
102. Fort Smith-Muskogee (Ark., Okla.)
103. Fort Wayne (Ind.)
104. Four Corners (Ariz., Colo., N. Mex., Utah)
105. Fresno (Calif.)
106. Gadsden-Anniston (Ala.)
107. Gainesville (Fla.)
108. Gainesville (Ga.)
109. Galesburg (111.)
110. Grand Fork (Minn., N. Dak.)
111. Grand Island (Nebr.)
112. Grand Junction (colo.)
113. Grand Rapids-Muskegon (Mich.)
114. Grants Pass-Medford (Oreg.)
115. Great Falls (Mont.)
116. Green Bay-Fond du Lac (Wis.)
117. Greenville (Miss.)
118. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson (S. C.)
119. Hagerstown (Md., Penn., W. Va.)
120. Harrisburg-Lebanon (Penn.)
121. Hartford-Springfield-New Haven (Conn., Mass.)
122. All of Hawaii (Hawaii)
123. Helena (Mont.)
124. Hennepin-Ottawa (111.)
125. Hot Springs (Ark.)
126. Houlton-Caribou (Maine)
127. Houston-Galveston (Tex.)
128. Huntington-Ashland-Portsmouth (Ky., Ohio, W. Va.)
129. Huntsville (Ala.)
130. Hutchinson (Kans.)
131. Indianapolis (Ind.)
132. Jackson (Miss.)
133. Jackson (Tenn.)
134. Jacksonville (Fla.)
135. Jamestown (N. Y.)
136. Johnstown-Altoona (Penn.)
1-5
-------
TABLE 1-1. - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
137. Joplin-N. E. Okla.-Fayetteville (Ark., Kans., Mo., Okla.)
138. Kalamazoo-Battle Creek (Mich..)
139. Kalispell-Flathead Lake (Mont.)
140. Kankakee (111.)
141. Kansas City (Kans., Mo.)
142. Keokuk (111., Iowa, Mo.)
143. Klamath Falls (Oreg.)
144. Kokomo-Marion (Ind.)
145. Knoxville (Tenn.)
146. La Crosse-Winona (Minn., Wise.)
147. LaFayette (Ind.)
148. Lancaster (Penn.)
149- Lansing (Mich.)
150. Laredo-Eagle Pass (Tex.)
151. Las Vegas-Kingman (Ariz., Nev.)
152. Laurel-Hattiesburg (Miss.)
153. Lawrence-Lowell-Manchester (Mass., N. H.)
154. Lawton (Okla.)
155. Lewiston-Moscow-Clarkston (Idaho, Wash.)
156. Lexington (Kys)
157. Lima-Findlay (Ohio)
158. Lincoln (Nebr.)
159. Little Rock (Ark.)
160. Logan (Utah)
161. Los Angeles (Calif.)
162. Louisville (Ind., Ky.)
163. Lower Rio Grande Valley (Tex.)
164. Lubbock (Tex.)
165. Lufkin-Nacogdoches (Tex.)
166. Lynchburg (Va.)
167. Macon (Ga.)
168. Madison (Wis.)
169. Mamitowoc-Sheboygan (Wis.)
170. Mankato-New Ulm (Minn.)
1-6
-------
TABLE 1-1 - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
171. Mansfield (Ohio)
172. Marion (Ohio)
173. Mason City (Iowa)
174. Memphis (Ark., Miss., Tenn.)
175. Menominee-Escanaba-Marinette (Mich., Wis.)
176. Meridian (Miss.)
177. Miama (Fla.)
178. Midland-Odessa (Tex.)
179. Milwaukee (Wis.)
180. Minot (N. Dak.)
181. Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minn.)
182. Missoula (Mont.)
183. Mobile-Pennsacola-Biloxi-Gulfport (Ala., Fla., La., Miss.)
184. Modesto-Merced (Calif.)
185. Montgomery (Ala.)
186. Montpelier-Barre (Vt.)
187. Muncie-Anderson (Ind.)
188. Nashville (Tenn.)
189. Natchez (La., Miss.)
190. National Capital Area (D. C., Md., Va.)
191. Newburgh-Poughkeepsie-Kingston (N. Y.)
192. New London (Conn.)
193. New York-New Jersey-Connecticut (Conn., N. J., N. Y.)
194. Niagara Frontier (N. Y.)
195. Norfolk-Elizabeth City (N. C., Vir.)
196. Northeast Louisiana-Vicksburg (La., Miss.)
197. Oklahoma City (Okla.)
198. Omaha (Iowa, Nebr.)
199. Orlando (Fla.)
200. Ottumwa (Iowa)
201. Paducah-Metropolis-Cairo (111., Ky.)
202. Parkersburg-Marietta (Ohio, W. Va.)
203. Pendleton (Oreg.)
. —-
-------
TABLE 1-1 - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
204. Peoria (111.)
205. Philadelphia (Penn.)
206. Phoenix-Tucson (Ariz.)
207. Pine Bluff (Ark.)
208. Pittsburgh (Penn.)
209. Pittsfield (Mass.)
210. Pocatello-Idaho Falls (Idaho)
211. Portland (Oreg.)
212. Portland-Lewiston-Auburn (Maine)
213. Prescott (Ariz.)
214. Providence (Conn., R. I.)
215. Pueblo (Colo.)
216. Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico)
217. Puget Sound (Wash.)
218. Quincy (111., Mo.)
219. Raleigh-Durham (N. C.)
220. Rapid City (Iowa)
221. Reading (Penn.)
222. Redding-Red Bluff (Calif.)
223. Reno-Carson City (Calif., Nev.)
224. Richland-Kennewick-Pasco (Wash.)
225. Richmond (Ind.)
226. Richmond-Petersburg (Va.)
227. Roanoke-Radford-Pulaski (Va.)
228. Rochester (N. Y.)
229. Rochester-Austin-Albert-Owato (Minn.)
230. Rochester-Dover-Portsmouth (N. H.)
231. Rockford-Janesville-Beloit (111., Wis.)
232. Rocky Mount-Goldsboro-Kinston (N. C.)
233. Rome (Ga.)
234. Roswell-Carlsbad-Hobbs-Pecos (N. Mex.)
235. Sacramento (Calif.)
1-8
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TABLE 1-1 - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
236. Salina (Kans.)
237. Salinas-Monterey-Santa Cruz (Calif.)
238. San Angelo (Tex.)
239. San Antonio (Tex.)
240. San Diego (Calif.)
241. Sandusky (Ohio)
242. Santa Fe (N. Mex.)
243. San Francisco Bay Area (Calif.)
244. San Luis Obispo (Calif.)
245. Sarasota (Fla.)
246. Sault Ste. Marie (Mich.)
247. Savannah-Beaufort (Ga., S. C.)
248. Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazelton (Penn.)
249. Selma (Ala.)
250. Sequatchie River Valley (Miss., Tenn.)
251. Shenandoah Valley (W. Va.)
252. Sherman-Denison (Tex.)
253. Sioux City (Iowa, Nebr.)
254. Sioux Falls (Iowa, S. Dak.)
255. Southern Louisiana-Texas (La., Tex.)
256. South Bend-Elkhart-Benton Harbor (Ind., Mich.)
257. Spokane-Coeur d'Alene (Idaho, Wash.)
258. Springfield (111.)
259. Springfield (Mo.)
260. St. Cloud (Minn.)
261. St. Louis (111., Mo.)
262. Sterling (Colo.)
263. Steubenville-Weirton-Wheeling (Ohio, W. Va.)
264. Stockton (Calif.)
265. Syracuse-Auburn (N. Y.)
266. Tallahassee (Fla.)
267. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Lakeland (Fla.)
1-9-
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TABLE 1-1 - LIST OF 298 METROPOLITAN AREAS (continued)
268. Terre Haute (Ind.)
269. Texarkana-Shreveport (Ark., La., Tex.)
270. Toledo (Mich., Ohio)
271. Topeka-Lawrence (Kans.)
272. Tulsa (Okla.)
273. Twin Falls (Idaho)
274. Tyler (Tex.)
275. Utica-Rome (N. Y.)
276. Valdosta (Ga.)
277. Victoria (Tex.)
278. Virgin Islands (Virgin Islands)
279. Visalia (Calif.)
280. Waco-Temple-Killeen (Tex.)
281. Walla Walla (Wash.)
282. Wasatch Front-Salt Lake City (Utah)
283. Waterbury-Torrington (Conn.)
284. Waterloo (Iowa)
285. Watertown (N. Y.)
286. Wausau (Wis.)
287. Wichita (Kans.)
288. Wichita Falls (Tex.)
289. Willimantic (Conn.)
290. Williamsport-Sanbury (Penn.)
291. Wilmington (N. C.)
292. Winston-Salem-Greensboro-High Point (N. C.)
293. Worchester-Fitchburg-Leominster (Mass.)
294. Yakima (Wash.)
295. York (Penn.)
296. Youngstown-Erie (Ohio, Penn.)
297. Yuma (Ariz.)
298. Zanesville-Cambridge (Ohio)
1-10
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APPENDIX E
Assumed Emission Standards
-------
Appendix II
Assumed Emission Standards
I. INTRODUCTION
Under the Clean Air Act, as amended, air quality standards will be
adopted for Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR's), then plans for imple-
mentation of the standards will be adopted. Ordinarily, implementation
plans must include emission standards intended to permit a region to
attain and maintain its established air quality standards. For this
report, emission standards were selected without going through the above
steps, which would have required many assumptions about air quality stan-
dards and a massive computational effort to derive appropriate emission
standards for all the 298 metropolitan areas. The emission standards
selected for this report are representative of those now used throughout
the Nation.
II. STANDARDS FOR PARTICULATES
For industrial process sources, the process weight rate regulation
of the San Francisco Bay Area Pollution Control District (Table II-l) was
used as the basis of control cost estimates. This regulation limits
the weight of particulate emissions per hour as a function of the total
weight of raw materials introduced into a process operation.
For incinerators, the New York State Incinerator Standard for new
units was used. This standard limits total particulate emissions on the
basis of mass rate (pounds/hour), rather than concentration. Several areas
have adopted a variation of this; the New York State standard for new
installations (Figure II-l) was used to determine the control efficiency
of incinerators. For fuel-burning equipment, the combustion regulation
of the State of Maryland was used (Figure II-2).
III. STANDARDS FOR SULFUR OXIDES
For fuel-burning equipment, a regulation based on mass emission rate
per million B.t.u. input was used. It allows an emission rate of 1.46 pounds
of sulfur dioxide per million B.t.u. input; this limit is based on an equiva-
lent sulfur content of 1.0 percent by weight in coal (1.38 percent by weight
II-l
-------
in oil). For process sources, a concentration standard of 500 parts
per million of sulfur dioxide was used.
IV. STANDARDS FOR HYDROCARBONS
For process sources, cost estimates were based on treatment of all
exhaust gases to remove organic material by 90 percent (or more) by weight.
For petroleum products storage, it was assumed that all stationary tanks,
reservoirs, and containers with more than a 40,000-gallon capacity and a
vapor pressure of 1.5 pounds per square inch absolute (or greater) must
be equipped with floating roofs, vapor recovery systems, or other equally
efficient devices. In addition, it was assumed that submerged filling
inlets must be installed on all gasoline storage tanks with a capacity of
250 gallons or more.
V. STANDARD FOR CARBON MONOXIDE
Cost estimates were based on treatment of all exhaust gases to
remove or reduce the weight of carbon monoxide emissions by at least
95 percent.
VI. STANDARDS FOR FLUORIDES
Three fluoride emission standards were utilized in this study. For
the phosphate fertilizer and elemental phosphorus industries a standard
of 0.2 pounds of total fluoride (gaseous and particulate) per ton of
P 05 was applied. For the aluminum industry a standard of 0.06 pounds of
total fluoride per reduction cell per hour up to a maximum of 40 pounds
per hour was applied. For the iron and steel and brick and tile indus-
tries emission standards were applied separately to the gaseous and par-
ticulate fluoride fractions. For the gaseous fraction a standard of 95
percent removal was assumed. The standard for fluoride particulates
requires that the quantity of total particulate emissions, including
fluoride, meet the "process weight rate" standard.
VII. STANDARD FOR LEAD PARTICULATES
The standard for lead particulates requires that the quantity of
total particulate emission, including lead meet the "process weight rate"
standard.
II-2
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TABLE II-l. - ALLOWABLE RATE OF PARTICULATE EMISSION BASED ON PROCESS WEIGHT RATE*
Process Weight
Rate
Lbs/hr
100
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
12,000
Tons/hr
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
, 0.75
1,00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
6.00
Rate of
Emission
Lbs/hr
0.551
0.877
1.40
1.83
2.22
2.58
3.38
4.10
4.76
5.38
5.96
6.52
7.58
8.56
9.49
10.4
11.2
12.0
13.6
Process Weight
Rate
Lbs/hr
16,000
18,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
200,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
6,000,000
Tons/hr
8.00
9.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
100.00
500.00
1,000.00
3,000.00
Rate of
Emission
Lbs/hr
16.5
17.9
19.2
25.2
30.5
35.4
40.0
41.3
42.5
43.6
44.6
46.3
47.8
49.0
51.2
69.0
77.6
92.7
Data in this table can be interpolated for process weight rates up
0 f\~l
to 60,000 Ibs/hr by using equation E=4.10 P * and can be interpolated
and extrapolated for process weight rates in excess of 60,000 Ibs/hr
by using equation E=55.0 p0'11 -40 (E = rate of emission in Ibs/hr;
P = process weight rate in tons/hr).
II-3
-------
M
0)
XI
§
o
P-I
CO
2;
O
M
CO
CO
H
§
W
hJ
M
100 |_
50 |-
10 |-
5 h-
1.0 |_
0.5 I—
0.1
10
100
500 1,000 5,000 10,000
REFUSE CHARGED (pounds/hour)
50,000 100,000
Fig. II—1.— New York State Particulate Emission Regulation for Refuse Burning Equipment.
-------
I
Ln
O
iH
CD
CO
53
O
M
CO
CO
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1
0.19
0012
10 10 10 10
EQUIPMENT CAPACITY RATING (106Btu/hr)
Fig. II-2.- Maryland Particulate Emission Standards for Fuel Burning Installations.
-------
APPENDIX nr
Mobile Sources
-------
APPENDIX III
Mobile Sources
I. INTRODUCTION
This appendix concerns the costs of complying with current and projected
Federal standards for motor vehicle air pollution emissions and presents
estimates of the costs to purchasers and users of motor vehicles due to air
pollution control for 1967 through Fiscal Year (Model Year) 1976. The
estimates are based on current, anticipated standards and other available
data as of July 1970. These standards cover or will cover emissions of
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matters from
motor vehicles. This appendix compares projected emissions under the anti-
cipated standards with potential emissions which would be expected if no
standards were in effect. The costs of meeting the standards are expressed
in terms of additional initial costs to the consumer, increases in operating
and maintenance costs, and an annualized combination of increased operating
and maintenance costs. The effect of these expenditures on emissions is
also indicated. Only costs associated with control of vehicular emissions
are included. Costs or price increases from controls on supplier industries,
such as steel making, are considered in Appendix VI. The cost of unleaded
gasoline, where required, has been included in total costs presented in
this appendix.
Only gasoline powered automobiles and light and heavy-duty trucks are
covered in the emissions and cost data presented in this appendix. Within
the accuracy of available data and estimating techniques, the inclusion of
buses and diesel trucks would have little effect on the total emissions and
cost figures.
The estimates and projections of emissions contained in this appendix
are based on information available as of July 15, 1970 and are different
from previously published estimates. Either the previous estimates of
hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from motor vehicles were low or
the methods for measuring these emissions gave lower readings than those
obtained from vehicles under realistic operating conditions. This infor-
mation was released by the Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare on
July 15, 1970 [Ref. 1].
III-l
-------
The main text of this appendix first presents a synopsis of motor
vehicle control technology through the 1976 models (Section II). Estimates
of the growth of vehicle populations and the potential for emissions without
control are discussed next (Section III). The costs to purchasers and users
to have vehicles in compliance with standards are included in the section
on costs (Section (IV) . Some conclusions drawn from the analysis will be
found in Section V.
II. EMISSIONS
A. Nature and Sources of Emissions
Motor vehicles are a major source of air pollution in the United
States. The four major pollutants from motor vehicles are hydrocarbons,
carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. Motor vehicles
account for approximately one-half of the hydrocarbon emissions and two-
thirds of the carbon monoxide emissions to the atmosphere in the United
States. Motor vehicles also contribute about one-third of the nitrogen
oxides and nine-tenths of the lead-bearing particulate matter to the total
national emissions of these pollutants.
Motor vehicle emissions occur in several ways. Hydrocarbon emissions
come from evaporation from the fuel tanks and carburetors (gasoline powered
vehicles), blowby and leakage from the engine crankcase, and incomplete
combustion. Figure III-l illustrates the sources and approximate relation
of these emissions. Incomplete combustion also produces carbon monoxide
in the exhaust gases. In the internal combustion engine, some of the
atmospheric oxygen and nitrogen combine to form nitrogen oxides which are
emitted in the exhaust. Unfortunately, conditions which favor more complete
and efficient combustion, thereby reducing exhaust emissions of hydrocarbons
and carbon monoxide, tend to increase the levels of nitrogen oxides formed.
For present consideration, the source of particulate matter emitted
by motor vehicles is the exhaust. The particulate matter in exhaust gases
from gasoline engines consists of carbonaceous material, salts and oxides
of iron and lead, and droplets or particles of hydrocarbon materials. Lead
compounds constitute about 80 percent of the particulate matter thus emitted.
III-2
-------
FUEL TANK AND
CARBURETOR EVAPORATION
HC 15%
u>
EXHAUST
HC
CO
NO,
70%
100%
100%
CRANKCASE
BLOWBY
HC 15%
Fig. III-l. - Approximate Distribution of Emissions by Source for a Vehicle
Not Equipped with Any Emission Control Systems.
-------
Metallic lead is present to the extent of 50 to 60 percent of total particulate
weight. Diesel engines have particulate emissions which consist almost
entirely of small carbon particles. Based on present knowledge, both the
total amount and the nature of the particulate matter from diesel engines
represent much less of an environmental problem than that from gasoline
engines.
B. Emission Levels and Effects of Standards
As has been previously noted, discrepancies have been found in the
standards and measurement techniques in effect for the period FY 1968
through 1971. In the emission estimates reported herein, corrections have
been made for the FY 1968 through 1971 period so that the data are on a
comparable basis for the entire period of FY 1967 through 1976.
Crankcase emissions were already under control at the beginning of
the time frame being considered here. The crankcase contributions of the
older cars which are not equipped with BJLowbjr control devices have been
included in the emission estimates presented here.
1. Potential for Emissions Without Control Under the Clean Air Act
Table III-l gives the estimated growth of the number of automobiles
and gasoline trucks in use for the period of Fiscal Years 1967 through
1976. This table also projects the potential emissions which could be
expected if no control regulations were in effect. The total number
of vehicles in use shows a growth of approximately 31 percent. The
total potential annual emissions show an increase of approximately the
same magnitude.
In making the projections shown in Table III-l, the vehicle popula-
tions have been projected on the basis of the best information on the
numbers of vehicles actually in use rather than the number of vehicle
registrations [Ref. 2]. The registration method is .considered less
accurate because it is basically a count of the number of registration
transactions and results in multiple counting of some vehicles.
The vehicles shown in Table III-l are divided into two categories;
the first comprises automobiles and light-duty trucks. Light-duty
trucks are six thousand pounds or less in gross vehicle weight (GVW).
The other category, heavy-duty gasoline trucks, consists of trucks over
six thousand pounds GVW. The vehicle data shown do not include either
diesel trucks or buses of the gasoline or diesel variety. Based on the
III-4
-------
TABLE
- MOBILE SOURCE GROWTH AND POTENTIAL EMISSIONS, FY 1967-1976
[1967 Baseline]
Fiscal Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Numbers of Vehicles in Use
(Millions)
Autos and Light-Duty
Trucks
81.8
84.6
88.3
90.7
92.2
94.9
97.5
100.1
103.9
107.2
Heavy-Duty Gasoline
Trucks
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.1
Total
87.1
90.3
94.2
96.7
98.3
101.1
103.9
106.7
110.7
114.3
FY 1967-76 Total Potential Emissions
Potential Emissions Without Controls in Effect
(Thousands of Tons)
Hydrocarbons
21,100
24,200
25,400
26,100
26,500
27,300
28,000
28,800
29,900
30,800
268,100
Carbon
Monoxide
126,000
130,000
137,000
140,000
143,000
146,000
151,000
155,000
160,000
166,000
1,454,000
Nitrogen
Oxides
5,700
5,910
6,180
6,350
6,450
6,640
6,820
7,000
7,260
7,500
65,810
Particulates
333
346
361
370
377
387
396
409
423
438
3,840
Ln
-------
best data available, buses and diesel trucks constitute a small fraction
of the total vehicle population [Ref. 3]. Also, for the time period
considered in this appendix, the only anticipated Federal standards for
diesels are for smoke density and cannot be directly related to the
emissions of the other pollutants considered here. Additional Federal
standards may be proposed later. The State of California, however, is
proposing other exhaust emission standards for diesels.
Table XH-1 also shows the potential emissions of the four major
pollutants from motor vehicles. In addition to showing estimates for
the individual pollutants and the total emissions, the table expresses
total emissions as a percentage of 1967 levels. The estimated total
potential emissions in 1976 are about one and one-third times those in
1967. Table III-l further shows the projected total pollution potential
over the entire span of FY 1967 through 1976.
2. Projected Standards and Emissions with Controls Under the Act
Table III-2 illustrates the effect of anticipated controls on the
emissions for FY 1967 through 1976. In making the projections shown
in Table III-2, current and anticipated standards detailed in Table 111^3
were used. These standards either have been promulgated or are under
consideration by the Air Pollution Control Office- The anticipated
standards for heavy-duty trucks are still under study and develop-
ment .
As shown in Table III-2, nearly 82 percent of the motor vehicles in
use should be controlled by 1976. In projecting the percentage of
vehicles under control, the age distribution of vehicles in use has
been considered with older vehicles being removed from service and new
vehicles being added with time. Age and use distribution within the
vehicle population are based on 1969 data. It is assumed that a comparable
distribution will hold through FY 1976.
It has been assumed in making projections that controlled vehicles
will be maintained in such a manner that their average emissions will
not exceed the level set by Federal standards. Tests have indicated
that vehicles now on the'road tend to increase their emission levels
somewhat with age; however, the new Federal standards and methodologies
for manufacturer qualification of vehicles are intended to insure that
vehicles are capable of remaining below the standard levels through
III-6
-------
TABLE III-2. - EFFECTS OF CONTROLS ON MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS, FY 1967-1976
[1967 Baseline]
Fiscal Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Autos and Light-Duty Trucks
Uncon-
trolled
(Millions)
81.8
77.6
71.0
63.6
54.3
45.2
37.0
29.3
22.7
17.9
Con-
trolled
(Millions)
0
6.9
17.3
27.1
37.9
49.7
60.5
70.8
81.1
89.3
Percent
Under
Control
0
8.2
19.6
29.9
41.1
52.4
62.0
70.7
78.1
83.3
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks
Uncon-
trolled
(Millions)
5.32
5.67
5.89
5.52
5.04
4.64
4.19
3.76
3.41
3.10
Con-
trolled
(Millions)
0
0
0
0.45
1.04
1.61
2.23
2.83
3.43
3.96
Percent
Under
Control
0
0
0
7.5
17.1
25.8
34.7
42.9
50.2
56.1
Total Number of Vehicles
Autos and Light and Heavy-
Duty Gasoline Trucks
Uncon-
trolled
(Millions)
87.1
83.3
76.9
69.2
59.3
49.8
41.2
33.1
26.1
21.0
Con-
trolled
(Millions)
0
6.9
17.3
27.6
38.9
51.3
62.7
73.6
84.5
93.3
Percent
Under
Control
0
7.7
18.4
28.5
39.6
40.9
60.3
69.0
76.4
81.6
FY 1967-76 Emission and Percent Totals
Emissions with Controls in Effect
Level
(Thou-
sands
of
Tons)
21,070
20,670
20,160
19,030
17,430
15,680
14,080
12,430
10,710
9,080
160,300
Per-
cent
of
Poten-
tiali/
100
85
79
73
65
57
50
43
35
29
60
Carbon
Monoxide
Level
(Thou-
sands
of
Tons)
126,100
125,600
124,400
118,400
110,500
102 ,000
94,000
86,000
76 , 300
66,400
1,030,000
Per-
cent
of
Poten-
tial!/
100
97
91
84
77
69
62
55
48
40
71
Oxides
Level
(Thou-
sands
of
Tons)
5,700
6,070
6,560
6,910
7,200
7,580
7,440
7,130
6,550
5,780
66,900
Per-
cent
of
Poten-
tiali*!/
100
103
106
109
112
114
109
102
90
77
102
Particulates
(Thou-
sands
of
Tons)
330
350
360
370.
380
390-
390
410
390
370
3,740
Per-
cent
of
Poten-
tial!/
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
84
97
M
M
— Potential emissions as shown in Table III-l.
2/
— Implementation of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide controls causes increase in nitrogen oxides emissions until countered
by nitrogen oxides controls
-------
TABLE III-3. - CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED STANDARDS FOR MOBILE SOURCES, 1967 - 1976
Vehicle Class
Autos and
Light-Duty
Trucks
(under 6,000
Ibs. GVW)
Heavy-Duty
Gasoline
Trucks
(over 6,000
Ibs. GVW)
Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Maximum Exhaust Pollutant Levels Permitted
Hydrocarbons
No Standard
275ppJ*2/
275ppmiil/
4.6gm/mi-/
21
4 . 6gm/mi—
2.9gm/mi
2.9gm/mi
2.9gm/mi
0,5gm/mi
0.5gm/mi
No Standard
it
tt
21
275ppvr-
275ppm
275ppm
ISOppm
ISOppm
ISOppm
Carbon Monoxide
No Standard
1.5% (vol. yi^
1.5% (vol . ) — * —
47gm/mi-/
21
47gm/mi—
37gm/mi
37gm/mi
37gm/mi
llgm/mi
llgm/mi
No Standard
H
ii
71
1.5% (vol.)-'
f\ /
1.5% y
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Nitrogen Oxides
No Standard
11
ti
H
11
H
3.0gm/tni
3.0gm/mi
0.9gm/mi
0.9gm/mi
No Standard
it
it
it
ii
H
ti
tt
785ppm
785ppm
Particulates
No Standard
it
tt
it
it
tt
tt
"
O.lgm/mi
0 . Igm/mi
No Standard
it
ti
H
tt
ii
ti
ti
ii
it
Crankcase Vapors
Under Control
NONE
ALL
YEARS
Under Control
NONE
FOR
ALL
YEARS
Evaporative Losses
No Standard
"
it
••
6gm/test
2gm/test
11
11
H
ii
Ho Standard
„
ii
"
„
"
2gm/test-/
3 /
2gm/test—
2gm/test— '
3/
2gm/test—
H
H
H
00
—^ For engines over 140 cubic inch displacement.
—^ Measurement procedures originally specified in standards have been changed. As originally published (1970-71) standards
were 2.2gm/mi for hydrocarbons and 23gms/mi for carbon monoxide. Under new procedures, the equivalent figures are those tion
in this table. Revised measurement standards to be enforced beginning 1972. Federal Register Volume 35, No. 136, pt. II, "
July 15, 1970 and announcement from Office of Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare, July 15, 1970.
— leased on one conturol. system pex vehicXe .
-------
their useful life. Some method of enforcement or incentive may be
required to assure that owners do maintain vehicles so that emissions
are kept to specified levels.
The projected annual emissions with the anticipated controls in
effect are expressed in weight quantities and as the percentage of the
uncontrolled potential. By 1976 hydrocarbons should be reduced to
about 29 percent of the uncontrolled potential, carbon monoxide to
40 percent, nitrogen oxides to 77 percent, and particulates to about
84 percent of potential.
The nitrogen oxides level with controls is expected to rise above
the uncontrolled level for a portion of this time period. This is due
to the fact that the controls for hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide,
which are implemented earlier than those for nitrogen oxides, tend to
produce an increase in nitrogen oxides with a reduction of the other
pollutants. The first Federal standards for nitrogen oxides are
expected to be effective in FY 1973. With these standards in effect,
the levels of nitrogen oxides emitted will begin to show a decline.
However, it is not until the last two years of the time period that
these levels will actually fall below those expected if hydrocarbons
and carbon monoxide were not being controlled.
In making the emission projections with controls as shown in
Table -III-2, consideration was given not only to the age distribution
within the vehicle populations each year, but to the usage of various
ages of vehicles. Based on total mileage estimates and the number of
cars in use, the average mileage driven per year is about 10,600 miles;
for heavy-duty trucks the average is about 12,000 miles. Based on
Bureau of Public Roads surveys the trend is for annual mileage to
decrease with the age of the vehicle. , Thus, the newer vehicles con-
tribute a significantly larger portion of the total mileage and fuel
consumption than the older vehicles.
III. STATE-OF-THE-ART OF CONTROL TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE SOURCES
A. Vehicle Controls [Ref. 4].
The past year has not produced any major advances in either new tech-
nology for the control of the internal combustion engine or the development
III-9
-------
of power sources as alternatives. Some progress has been made in control
techniques and more is anticipated in certain areas, such as the use of
catalytic exhaust reactors. Such changes appear to be evolutionary rather
than of the breakthrough variety.
Most of the progress to date in reducing hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions has been made by increasing air-fuel ratios (APR) in new engines.
Many 1970 model cars are designed to operate at air-fuel ratios of 14 to 16
parts air to one part fuel, thus reducing the hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions. It is an unfortunate fact that nitrogen oxides emissions reach
a maximum in this range (approximately 15.5). Theoretically, an AFR in the
range of 18 to 20 would be the optimum point for limiting emissions of all
gaseous pollutants (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides) in
the exhaust. In practice, however, air-fuel ratios greater than about 17.5
produce rough engine operation which manufacturers feel would be unacceptable
to most drivers. Automobile manufacturers and carburetor suppliers are con-
tinuing their efforts to develop satisfactory production models with leaner
operating engines; i.e. using a higher air-to-fuel ratio.
Diesel engines always operate with an excess of air present in the
combustion cylinders. This accounts for the diesel engine's low emissions
of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide as compared with the gasoline engine.
The AFR is varied by the driver rather than being fixed by carburetor design
as in a gasoline engine. Smoke from diesel engines is a function of the
engine loading, speed, and the air-fuel ratio. Since these factors are
under the control of the diesel operator, most diesel engines now on the
road can meet smoke standards through FY 1976 if properly maintained and
operated. Minor design changes, such as improved fuel injectors, are being
incorporated into new diesel engines to further improve the performance in
terms of smoke and odor emissions.
Exhaust emission standards for light-duty vehicles can be met through
FY 1972 by minor modifications to current design engines. Such modifications
include carburetion improvements, operation with leaner fuel mixtures, control
of engine inlet-air temperature, and changes in the timing of valve and
ignition operation.
The nitrogen oxides standards for exhaust emissions, which become
effective in FY 1973, can be met through partial exhaust gas recirculation
to the engine air inlet. Although recirculation reduces nitrogen oxides
111-10
-------
emissions, it has a slightly adverse effect on the levels of other emissions.
However, it should be possible to meet standards by this means through FY 1974.
Anticipated standards for evaporative emissions from fuel tanks and
engines of gasoline vehicles can be readily met through FY 1976. In fact,
the ease with which the original standards were met has resulted in an
advancement of the effective date of the more stringent evaporative standards.
Automobile manufacturers report considerable progress during the last year
in simplification and production engineering of evaporative control devices.
These advances should result in reducing device complexity, maintenance
requirements and initial price.
It should be possible for gasoline engines to achieve FY 1975 standard
levels. However, in the opinion of the automobile manufacturers, this may
be near the limit of what might be expected with reciprocating internal-
combustion engines. In order to meet FY 1975 standards, some type of
exhaust-gas reactor system appears necessary. Research and development
efforts are continuing on both engine-exhaust manifold-type reactors and
catalytic-muffler-type reactors. The current consensus of major U. S.
manufacturers is toward the use of catalytic-muffler-type units in FY 1975
and FY 1976. Some limited production of single catalyst units may begin
with the 1975 model year. This represents somewhat of a change in thinking
during the last year. The change has been brought about because of a push
toward the reduction or elimination of lead in gasoline. The presence of
lead in gasoline has an undesirable effect on catalytic-reactor-type units
and has been a major stumbling block in the development of such units.
Although the automotive industry has sought the elimination of lead in
gasoline because of adverse effects on the longevity of exhaust emission
control systems such as catalytic and thermal reactors, reduction or
elimination of lead will also greatly reduce the problem of particulate
emissions in the exhaust.
In order to meet the FY 1975 standards, it is anticipated that the
catalytic-reactor units will be used to reduce nitrogen oxides as well as
carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. To accomplish this, tandem catalytic
units or dual-catalyst units will probably b<3 required. In a two-catalyst
system such as this, the engine is run fuel rich to produce the low-oxygen-
content exhaust gases required for a reducing-type reactor. This results
in an increase in fuel consumption. The dual-catalyst units will probably
III-ll
-------
serve multiple functions in the exhaust system of 1975-76 model automobiles,
The catalytic-reactor units may also serve as conventional mufflers and
have provision for trapping particulate matter.
United States automobile manufacturers are working toward a life-
time of 50 to 100 thousand miles for the catalytic-muffler systems. In
accord with this goal, manufacturers anticipated that so-called lifetime
exhaust systems will be added to the vehicle. This means that the other
portions of an exhaust system will be made of a durability comparable to
or greater than the catalytic-reactor units. This is intended to avoid
the possibility of damage or requirements for replacement of expensive
catalytic units due to failure of other exhaust components. The increased
life of such exhaust components will be of benefit to the consumer.
The foregoing discussion has been directed largely at automobiles.
It is anticipated that the technology will be essentially identical for
other light-duty gasoline vehicles. The same technology will probably
be applied in general to the heavy-duty gasoline vehicles also, but
there is a greater potential for the use of exhaust-manifold reactors
on heavy-duty vehicles. During the period through FY 1976, however, it
is probable that heavy—duty gasoline trucks will be able to meet the
standards through engine modifications and the addition of some exhaust
gas recirculation. It is not anticipated that particulate control will
be required on heavy-duty vehicles through FY 1976. The technology of
evaporative emission control for heavy-duty vehicles should be quite
similar to that for light-duty vehicles. There may be some differences,
however, due to the presence of multiple fuel tanks on many heavy-duty
vehicles.
B. The Outlook for Unleaded Gasoline
Tetraethyl lead was once added only to premium grade gasoline.
Regular grades were essentially of the same base, but without the lead
addition. As a result, the public came to associate the name "ethyl"
with premium quality. This association in the public mind continues
despite the fact that both regular and premium gasolines today contain
lead additives.
Average premium gasolines on the market contain about 2.8 grams of
lead per gallon and have a research octane number (RON) of about 100-
average regular grade gasoline has about 2.4 grams of lead per gallon and
111-12
-------
a RON of about 94. The range of octanes varies with time and sources of
petroleum. Regular gasolines may range from 90 to 96 octane; premiums from
97 to 100. Some companies retail three grades of gasoline; others use
blending pumps to offer virtually a continuous spectrum of octanes in the
92 to 100 range.
With current refining processes, the average RON of premium gas is
slightly below 93 without lead added, satisfying the antiknock requirements
of only about 55 percent of the automobiles currently in use. Removal of
lead from regular gas would result in a research octane number slightly
below 86, satisfying less than four percent of current automobiles. The
combined regular and premium gasoline base stocks (before addition of lead)
constitute the so-called "pool" for the nation. The "pool" octane thus
obtained is about 91 RON.
1. Movement Toward Low Lead and Lead-Free Gasolines
Recent months have seen rapid changes in the prospects for low-
lead or unleaded gasoline as the petroleum industry adjusts to the
realities of potential restrictions. United States automobile manu-
facturers have decided to lower the octane requirements of new cars
beginning with 1971 models. This, removes some of the arguments against
unleaded gasoline. If it is not necessary to maintain present high
octane levels without using lead, refinery processes will not require
extensive changes. This means that 91 RON unleaded gasoline can be
offered at little or no change in price over present regular grades.
By the end of the 1971 model year, almost all U. S. automobile
production will have engines suitable for operation on 91 research
octane gasoline. This is an effort by the manufacturers to push the
production of unleaded gasoline in anticipation of introducing catalytic
exhaust reactor units. In the auto industry there is a general feeling
that complete absence of lead in gasoline will increase the possibility
of valve problems in current engine designs. Only very low levels of
lead content are required to prevent these problems; however, present
experience indicates that catalytic reactors may not tolerate even
small concentrations of lead in gasoline. Gasoline or oil additives
may be found to prevent valve problems without lead. Newer engines
will be designed to avoid such problems.
111-13
-------
2. Progress in Availability of Low-Lead and Lead-Free Gasolines
Major gasoline producers have recently announced the immediate
or imminent availability of low-lead or unleaded gasolines. The pro-
ducts and prices being offered present a mixed picture. One producer
has for a number of years offered an unleaded premium gasoline, with
a price usually somewhat higher than leaded premiums in the same area.
Another major producer has been offering an unleaded regular in some
parts of the country, with a price above leaded premium. Yet another
offers a low-lead regular (nominal 96 RON) as the middle level of a
three-grade line. This middle grade is retailing for one cent per
gallon above the leaded grade it has replaced. Other companies with
three-grade or blending pump lines are offering their lowest octane
product (92 to 94 nominal RON) at one cent below area prices for leaded
regular. Other variations are in the offing as more suppliers announce
their plans.
The variations in approach by producers reflect several influences.
These influences include the company's ability to produce a given octane
with lowered lead content (dependent on the nature of its crude supply
and types of refining equipment) and judgments concerning financial and
marketing strategies. Competitive effects will tend to produce a more
uniform price and product balance as time passes.
Gasoline retailers report that initial consumer response to new
low-lead and unleaded fuels has been disappointing. The concept that
higher octane fuel is inherently better for an automobile is deeply
imbedded in consumer psychology. The majority of U. S. automobile
owners use gasoline with octane ratings (and hence lead content) in
excess of their engine's requirements. This may result from years
of exposure to gasoline advertisements, the association of the word
"premium" with higher octane ratings, and ignorance. This situation
will likely continue even though new cars will have lower octane
requirements. Consumer apathy toward unleaded fuels may also reflect
ignorance of the environmental concerns regarding lead.
A major educational campaign will be required to induce the con-
sumer to accept the lowest octane gasoline which is actually required
by his car. If this is not done, continued public demand for excessive
quantities of high octane fuel could result in unnecessarily high prices
for unleaded gasoline.
111-14
-------
IV. COST ASPECTS OP COMPLIANCE WITH STANDARDS
Tables HI^-4 and I1I-5 detail the per^vehicle cost of complying with Federal
standards for mobile sources for the 1967-76 model years. The uncontrolled
1967 model year is a baseline. Tables III-4 and III-5 show the emissions con-
trolled for each vehicle model year, the anticipated control methods, and
the control investment per vehicle [Ref. 5], The control investment per vehicle
represents an increase in price to the purchaser of new motor vehicles.
Anticipated requirements for additional maintenance due to emission controls
are also shown in the tables with the frequency and event cost of such
additional maintenance indicated. It is assumed that legal or warranty
requirements will insure that owners obtain the necessary maintenance. The
anticipated additional maintenance costs are based on current labor costs
for procedures comparable to those anticipated and for estimated costs of
replacement items associated with emission controls. These anticipated
periodic maintenance costs are also shown on an annualized basis. Additional
operating costs incurred as a result of fuel penalties are also shown. The
total additional annual costs per vehicle are the annualized maintenance
cost plus the extra operating cost. All cost figures are based on 1970
dollars.
Since the motor vehicle industry provides products directly to the
consumer public, costs have been expressed in terms of the owners and
users of vehicles. In the automotive industry increased costs of manu-
facturers (including research and engineering) are passed directly to the
final consumer by means of increased retail prices.
For the typical automobile owner and user, concepts of amortization,
annualization, or percentage change in annual costs probably have little
significance. The typical automobile owner will tend to view his costs
largely in terms of the increased price at time of purchase and increased
operating costs in terms of fuel usage. The depreciation characteristics
of vehicles vary widely depending on the popularity of the individual model
involved. For this reason it would add little to attempt to annualize
investment costs according to actual vehicle depreciation curves.
The costs of additional maintenance requirements have been annualized
on the basis of the time interval between the required maintenance events.
Thus, a maintenance requirement that must be met on an average of once every
five years has its costs annualized on a five-year basis.
111-15
-------
TABLE II1-4. - UNIT CONTROL METHODS AND COSTS, 1967 - 1976 MODEL YEARS
CARS AND LIGHT-DUTY TRUCKS
Model
Year
1967
and
ear-
lier
1968-
69
1970
1971
1972
1973-
74
1975-
76
Emissions 1 .
Controlled—
None
HC.CO
(exhaust)
HC CO
(exhaust,
some evap-
orative HC)
HC
(exhaust
and evap-
orative)
CO
"
HC
(exhaust
and evap-
orative)
CO, NO
HC
(exhaust
and evap-
orative)
CO.NO ,
particu-
lates
Control
Method
None
Engine
modifi-
cations
modifi-
cations
Engine
modifi-
cations
Evapora-
tive traps
n
Same as
1971 plus
exhaust
gas re-
circula-
tion
Dual cata-
lyst reac-
tor-
mufflers
plus par-
tlciilate
traps (air
injection
required
for reac-
tors). Un-
leaded gas-
oline.
Evaporative
traps .
Control
Investment
per
Vehicle
(Dollars)
None
2.00
7.00
17.00
17.00
42.00
240.00
Additional
Maintenance
Requirements
Type of
Maintenance
None
Average
Frequency
None
None (more care re-
quired in tuneup and
adjustment procedures
.
quired in tuneup and
adjustment procedures)
Repair and
replacement
of evapora-
tive traps
and parts
»
Same as
1971 plus
servicing
of recir-
culatlon
system
Servicing
of air
injection
system.
Replace-
ment of
catalytic
units.
Servicing
evapora-
tive traps.
Maintenance
adjustments
and clean-
Ing.
5 yrs. or
50,000
miles
(once in
10 yrs.)
"
5 yr/
50,000
miles
for
evap-
orative
control
1 yr/
10,000
miles
for re-
circula-
tion
system
5 yr/
50,000
miles
for
air
inj ec-
tion.
catalytic
units and
evapora-
tive traps.
Adjust
and clean
as needed.
Credit for
normal
exhaust
system
mainte-
nance .
Maintenance
Event
Cost
(Dollars)
None
None
None
24.00
24.00
24.00
8.00
98.00
24.00
-50.00
Additional
Maintenance
Annualized
Cost
(Dollars/Yr)
None
None
None
2.40
2.40
10.40
7.00
Additional
Operating
Cost (fuel , ,,
penalty costs)-1—
(Dollars/Yr)
None
-5.10
-5.10
-5.10
-5.10
-2.50
5% fuel
penalty
$13.70.
Additional
Maintenance and
Operating Cost
(Dollara/Yr)!/
Done
-5.10
-5.10
-2.70
-2.70
7.90
20.70
I/
— HC • Hydrocarbons, CO " Carbon Monoxide, NO - Nitrogen Oxides.
-' Based on 757 gal/yr @ 34c/gal.
— Negative values indicate benefits rather than costs. Benefits due to slightly improved fuel mileage.
111-16
-------
TABLE III-5. - UNIT CONTROL METHODS AND COSTS, 1967-1976 MODEL YEARS
HEAVY-DUTY GASOLINE TRUCKS
Model
Year
Pre
1970
1970-71
1972
1973
1974
1975-76
Emissions.. .
ontrolled—
None
HC.CO
HC.CO
it
it
HC.CO,
NO p ar-
ticulates
Control
Method
None
Engine
modifi-
cations
(lean
opera-
tion) .
ii
Same as
1970-71
plus evap-
orative
traps .
Same as
1973
Same as
1973 plus
exhaust
gas re-
circu-
lation.
Unleaded
fuel.
Control
Investment
per
Vehicle
(Dollars)
None
9.00
9.00
21.00
21.00
46.00
Additional
Maintenance
Requirements
Type of
Maintenance
None
None
None
Repair and
replacement
of evap.
traps and
parts.
ii
Same as
1973 plus
servicing
or recirc.
system.
Average
Frequency
None
None
None
5 yrs.
(twice
in 15
yrs.)
ii
5 yrs.
evap.
traps.
1 yr.
recirc.
system.
Maintenance
Event
Cost
(Dollars)
None
None
None
26.00
26" .,00
26.00
10.00
Additional
Maintenance
Annualized
Cost
(Dollars/Yr)
None
None
None
3.50
3.50
13.50
Additional
Operating
Cost (fuel
penalty costs)
(Dollars/Yr)
None
None
None
None
None
None
Additional
Maintenance
and Operat-
ing Cost
(Dollars/Yr)
None
None
None
3.50
3.50
13.50
— HC = Hydrocarbons, CO
Carbon Monoxide, NO = Nitrogen Oxides.
-------
In preparing the cost information shown in Tables III-4 and III-5, consid-
eration has been given to offsetting benefits which may act to reduce the
net cost to purchasers and users of motor vehicles; e.g., increased gas
mileage due to leaner engine operation.
Crankcase emission devices (the PCV valve system) are not included in
pre-1968 costs. These devices were required by law beginning with 1966
models, but have been standard on U. S. cars beginning with 1963 models.
Controls classified under the category of engine modifications include
changes in compression ratios, valve and ignition timing, and carburetion
and fuel-air inlet design changes. Changes of this type are commonly used
by manufacturers to differentiate engines of one basic design in order to
offer a product line of several horsepower options with varying fuel require-
ments. Such changes, which do not require the addition of any components to
engines or involve any basic concepts not current in the 1967 designs, are
here considered to be ordinary engineering options for the manufacturers
with negligible effect on retail prices. Where additional items are added
to the basic engine design, such as spark advance cut-out devices, evapora-
tive traps, or equipment for exhaust gas recirculation, retail price esti-
mates have been used in computing the control investment cost per vehicle.
In the case of evaporative emission traps, consideration has been given to
engineering advancements which have permitted reduction of the retail cost
of such units from the $35 level for the prototypes as sold in California
in 1970 to approximate $10 for the types that will be in general use through-
out the U. S. in 1971 models. Possible costs for extensive emission com-
pliance testing of assembly line vehicles have not been included.
For the 1975 and 1976 model years, the control investment costs per
vehicle include the price of the catalytic-reactor-type muffler units with
a long-life exhaust system, the equipment required for air injection to the
oxidizing reactor, provision for trapping of particulates, and the evapo-
rative emission traps. As has been previously stated, it is assumed
that unleaded gasoline will be employed by the 1975 and 1976 model vehicles.
For the 1975-76 models, a credit has been given under maintenance require-
ments for reduction in the exhaust system maintenance due to the use of
long-life materials as compared to current exhaust system materials.
As may be seen from the Table III-4, the slightly improved fuel consumption
with engines being operated under lean conditions produces an overall bene-
fit or negative total annual cost per vehicle through the 1972 model year.
111-18
-------
It has been estimated that the lean operation will produce approximately
two percent improvement in gasoline mileage for 1968 through 1972 models.
Theoretically, the use of evaporative traps to recover normally lost fuel
should result in a fuel saving. However, in practice, the disturbances
in carburetion and the balance of the air-fuel intake system produced by
adding on such devices will probably tend to offset any gain due to fuel
recovery.
Exhaust gas recirculation will probably produce a slight decrease in
fuel economy, tending to offset the benefits of lean engine operation.
Theoretically, recirculation should have little effect on engine efficiency,
but again in practice, disturbances of carburetion and air-fuel distribution
will produce a small loss in engine efficiency.
For FY 1975-76 fuel-cost penalties are incurred from two sources.
Approximately a five percent fuel penalty is the minimum which can be
expected for 1975-76 model automobiles using a reducing catalyst system to
control nitrogen oxides. The government is seeking to have unleaded (and
very low-lead) gasoline in general use by 1974 or 1975. Therefore, it is
assumed that unleaded gasoline will be used by all automobiles and gasoline
trucks in FY 1975-76. An additional two cents per gallon for unleaded
gasoline is charged only against pre-1971 model vehicles for FY 1975-76.
The increased cost for these cars to use unleaded fuel is based on an
assumption of octane requirements similar to 1967 vehicles. It is assumed
that there will be no extra cost for the low octane lead-free fuel used by
1971-76 model engines in FY 1975-76.
Cost estimates for producing unleaded gasoline of octane levels
required by pre-1971 model automobiles have ranged from about one-half to
two and one-half cents per gallon over comparable leaded fuels [Ref. 5-8],
The decision of automobile manufacturers to lower octane requirements
beginning with 1971 models has greatly changed the fuel cost outlook from
earlier projections. Fluctuations in costs of unleaded gasoline versus
leaded are to be expected in the transition period. The price situation
should be stabilized by the time vehicles appear with catalytic exhaust
reactors.
Control costs for heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to be generally
comparable to those for automobiles and light-duty trucks meeting the same
standards. However, the differences in implementation of heavy-duty truck
standards shifts the time frame of the costs. For the heavy-duty vehicles,
111-19
-------
vehicles, higher fuel consumption rates increase the relative importance
of fuel penalties and total annual cost.
A summary of the total national economic effects of mobile source
controls through 1976 is given in Table III-6. The incremental capital
investment given each year is for cost increases due to meeting the
then-current emission standards for new vehicles sold that year. The
incremental capital investment represents the sum-total of individual
cost increases for all vehicles of a model year corresponding to the
fiscal year shown (for practical purposes the automobile model sales
season corresponds closely with a Federal fiscal year}. The additional
operating costs shown in Table III-6 are the total for all vehicles in
use which are under any Federal emission standards. The age and use
distributions within the vehicle populations have been considered.
Reductions in the potential emission levels for each year are also
shown in Table III«r6,
Table IIIr-6 also shows the totals of the capital investment and additional
operating costs incurred over the entire period of 1967 through 1976, and
the reduction from the potential emission level achieved. The total of the
capital investment and additional operating costs projected for the period
of FY 1967 through 1976 is approximately 7.1 billion dollars for the nation*
It should be pointed out that the small dollar benefits (negative costs)
per vehicle in the FY 1968 through 1974 period are very sensitive to
variations in data on average vehicle useage and fuel consumption rates.
For this reason, as far as the individual owner is concerned, costs and
benefits will about offset each other in this period. For the individual
private automobile owner, the purchase price differences will be the most
obvious cost item, although these differences do not become major until
the 1975 model year.
V. CONCLUSION
Based upon information available as of July 15, 197Q, air pollution
control costs to be borne by vehicle purchasers and users do not appear
significant through Fiscal Year 1974. Control costs will climb sharply
to meet the anticipated standards in succeeding years unless presently
unforeseen technological advances occur. Meeting the projected standards
111-20
-------
TABLE III-6. - COSTS OF CONTROLS AND EFFECTIVENESS IN REDUCING EMISSIONS,
FY 1967-1976 ALL AUTOS AND GASOLINE TRUCKS
I
NJ
Fiscal Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
FY 1967-76
Totals
Incremental Invest-
ment Due to Increased , ,
Prices of New Vehicles-
Millions of Dollars)
0
13.9
20.7
56.1
131.1
136.6
346.3
498.5
2,068.7
3,031.7
6,303.6
Additional Costs
for Operation
and Maintenance — '
(Millions of Dollars)
0
-35.4^
LI
-88.2-'
4/
-138.3-
-175.3^
-208. 9 -
LI
-154.4-'
- 50.3^
743.5^
908. &-'
803. 3
Reductions in Emissions From Potential —
Hydrocarbons
(Thousands
of Tons)
0
3,500
5,200
7,100
9,100
11,600
13,900
16,400
19,200
21,700
107,700
(Percent)
0
15
21
27
35
43
50
57
65
71
40
Carbon Monoxide
(Thousands
of Tons)
0
4,300
12,400
22,000
32,200
44,700
56,800
68,900
84,400
99,500
425,200
(Percent)
0
3
9
16
23
31
38
45
52
60
29
Nitrogen Oxides
(Thousands
of Tons)
0
-160^
5/
-380-
5/
-560-
-750^
-940^
5/
-620-
-130 -
710
1,720
1,110
(Percent)
0
- 3~
5/
- 6~
5/
- 9-
-12 ~
-14^
5/
- 9-
- 2-
10
23
- 2
Particulates
(Thousands
of Tons)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31
68
99
I/
(Percent)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
16
3
— Increased costs due to purchases of new vehicles during given year only.
2/
— Total increased costs due to controls for all cars and gasoline trucks on road for given year.
— Based on potential emissions as shown in Table III-l.
4/
Direct economic benefits larger than direct costs to owners
5/
Negative values indicate increases (which are results of controls on hydrocarbons and carbon mnnn*iM.
°-l Total use of unleaded gasoline assumed beginning 1975. It is assumed that only pre-1971 model autos will
be using extra cost high octane (greater than 91 RON) unleaded gasoline (2c per gallon extra).
-------
through 1976 will, however, produce significant reductions in mobile
source emissions. If implementation of the standards is accelerated
or if the standards are increased in stringency, it can be expected
that control costs will rise at an accelerated rate.
111-22
-------
REFERENCES
1. Announcement from Office of the Secretary of Health, Education,
and Welfare, released for publication July 15, 1970.
2. Ward's 1970 Automotive Yearbook, Wards Communications, Inc., Detroit,
Michigan, pp. 144 and 154.
3, Based on data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads,
as reported in 1968 Automotive Facts and Figures, published by Automo-
bile Manufacturers Association, Detroit, Michigan, 1968.
4. Projected control techniques and prices based on surveys and interviews
with industry representatives.
5. S. P. Lawson, J. F. Moore, and J. B. Rather, Jr., "Added Cost of Unleaded
Gasoline," Hydrocarbon Processing. 46 No. 6, June 1967.
6. J. 0. Logan, President Universal Oil Products Co., (Testimony to Assembly
Committee on Transportation of the California Legislature), Los Angeles,
California, December 4, 1969, 20 pp.
7. U. S. Motor Gasoline Economics, Bonner and Moore Association, Inc., for
the American Petroleum Institute, Vol. I, June 1967, p. 2-32.
8. Implications of Lead Removal from Automotive Full. U.S. Dept. of
Commerce Interim Report, June 1970.
111-23
-------
APPENDIX 3Z
Stationary Sources
-------
Appendix IV
Stationary Sources
I. INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this appendix is to present, on a source by
source basis, the detailed analyses upon which the summaries
presented in Chapters 4 and 5 are based. For the solid waste dis-
posal and stationary combustion categories, the discussion is
limited to the engineering analyses of the cost and emission esti-
mations. Detailed economic discussion is not included because in-
depth economic impact studies were not performed for these sources.
For each of the industrial process sources, in- addition to the engi-
neering analyses provided, a discussion of the economic analyses per-
formed to develop economic impact statements are also presented.*
Sources that shared product markets or were in other ways related
are discussed simultaneously. The industries grouped together for
purposes of the analyses are petroleum refining and petroleum pro-
ducts and storage; phosphate fertilizer and elemental phosphorus;
and primary and secondary metallurgy. Included in all of the discus-
sions of the industrial process sources is a statement defining the
scope and limitations of the economic analysis.
* Sulfuric acid is an exception because an economic impact analysis
is being performed directly by APCO.
IV-1
-------
II. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL
A. Effect of Air Pollution Control Alternatives
By 1976, the population of the 298 metropolitan areas should reach
186 million. It is also predicted that the per capita generation of solid
waste will increase by approximately three percent per year. In 1967, the
base year, the per capita per day generation of solid waste was estimated
to be 10.2 pounds. Thus, it is estimated that 395 million tons of refuse
will be generated in 1976.
For the purpose of estimating control costs, it is assumed that the
following control alternatives would be used: (1) electrostatic pre-
cipitators to control particulate emissions in accordance with the New
York State Particulate Emission Regulation for Refuse Burning Equipment
(see Appendix II) on all municipal and 80 percent of the commercial
incinerators onsite in 1967; (2) a sufficient number of new incinerators
would be constructed to provide for incineration of 20 percent of all
refuse; and (3) all open burning would be discontinued in favor of
sanitary landfills.
By implementing this plan by Fiscal Year 1976, particulate emissions
would be reduced from a potential of 1,500,000 tons to 185,000 tons,
carbon monoxide from 5,450,000 tons to 414,000 tons, and hydrocarbons
from 2,020,000 tons to 293,000 tons. The emissions are therefore reduced
by 87.7 percent, 92.4 percent, and 85.5 percent, respectively.
B. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
1. Methodology
Air pollution control costs for solid waste were obtained
by:
a) Determining the quantity and method of disposal of
collected refuse.
The total collected refuse generated in any
metropolitan area was computed on the basis of 5.5
pounds per capita per day [Ref. 1]. Specific data for
a metropolitan area were used when available. The
amount of refuse incinerated was obtained from incinerator
listings obtained from previous studies [Ref. 2], All
incinerators were assumed to be operating at their
IV-2
-------
stated capacity, and the balance of the refuse which
was not incinerated was assumed to be disposed of by
other methods: landfill, burning dumps, ocean dumping,
composting, etc. When no detailed information on the
method of disposal existed, it was assumed that 33 per-
cent of this remaining amount was open burned £Ref. 3],
b) Determining the quantity and method of disposal of un-
collected refuse.
Uncollected refuse was estimated using a rate of
4.7 pounds per capita per day [Ref. 1], This refuse
was assumed to be presently disposed of by 50 percent
landfill, 25 percent open burning, and 25 percent
domestic and commercial incineration.
c) Determining incinerator control costs.
All existing municipal incinerators must be up-
graded to some extent to comply with regulations.
The cost for this upgrading is presented in Table IV-1.
TABLE IV-1. - COST OF UPGRADING MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
Year of
Construction
Before 1961
1961-1964
1965-1967
Cost of Upgrading
($ per daily ton of capacity)
Investment
500
400
200
Annual
360
330
310
d) Determining open burning control costs for collected
refuse.
All present open burning must be discontinued. It
was assumed that 25 percent of this amount would go to
new incinerators at a cost of $5,600 per daily ton for
furnaces in the 300 ton per day or larger size, and
$7,500 per daily ton for furnaces smaller than 300 tons
per day [Refs. 3, 4, 5]. The annualized cost of operating
IV-3
-------
an incinerator was based on $6 per daily ton and 300
days per year. The remaining 75 percent of open burning
would go to sanitary landfills at an additional cost of
$0.30 per ton. This is the only cost above that re-
quired to operate a burning dump. (See Reference 3.)
No initial investment costs were included since land
and personnel for the burning dump were already on hand.
In metropolitan areas where there are no municipal
incinerators, all open burning would be converted to
sanitary landfill; that is, no new incinerators will
be built in these areas.
e) Determining control costs for uncollected refuse.
Uncollected refuse control costs were based on all
current open burning (25 percent of all solid waste)
going to sanitary landfill at a cost of $0.40 per ton,
and existing incineration (also 25 percent of the total)
requiring upgrading at an investment cost of $1000 per
daily ton of capacity with an annualized cost of $259
per daily ton. Presently, twenty percent of existing
small incinerators were assumed to meet the New
York State regulation, and 20 percent were assumed to
convert to landfill at no additional cost.
f) Determining additional costs incurred by 1976.
These costs were based on the 1967 disposal prac-
tices , but were varied to accommodate population changes
as well as a 3 percent yearly increase in the amount of
solid waste generated per capita. These increases were
then treated in the same manner as the 1967 values to
arrive at a control cost.
g) Assuming that all California metropolitan areas were
controlled through local efforts and any costs incurred
were not due to Federal action.
The major single factor is the cost for new. incinerators re-
quired to control 25 percent of the existing open burning. The
high initial costs and the high yearly costs accounted for about
IV-4
-------
50 percent of the total annual costs for this metropolitan area.
The installation of electrostatic precipitators (ESP's) in
place of scrubbers on existing municipal incinerators was also
investigated. Annualized costs for ESP's are about 50 percent of
scrubber costs. However, since no ESP's are currently used for
controlling particulate emissions from incinerators, they were
not considered in this analysis. Assuming some of the larger
incinerators were to go to ESP's as a means of control, a typical
metropolitan area's annualized cost would be reduced by about
10 percent.
Cost estimates for disposing of junked automobiles in con-
trolled incinerators were based on an assumption that 50 percent
of these automobiles were now being open burned. Based on data
presented later in this section, the costs of controlling partic-
ulates from auto body incinerators would only add about 1 to 3
percent to the metropolitan area investment cost and even less to
the annualized cost. Therefore, separate estimates of the cost
of controlling junked auto disposals were not made because the per-
cent contribution of these costs was less than the expected error
of the major cost estimates.
2. Control Costs
The following air pollution control costs were utilized in
estimating metropolitan area solid waste disposal expenditures.
a. Municipal Incinerator Control Costs
Table IV-2 presents the cost of controlling municipal
incinerators with wet scrubbers.
Since installed costs did not vary by more than about
10 percent, an average cost of $500 per daily ton was used.
For incinerators built between 1961 and 1964, 80 percent of
the control costs were used. For units built after 1965, a
control cost of $200 per daily ton was arbitrarily used since
these units were assumed to have some type of acceptable
control device already in place.
IV-5
-------
Annualized costs were based on a 13,3 percent capital charge
and on the following operating cost equation ."[Ref. 6];
G = S [0.745HK (Z +
+ WHL + M] = 0.3985
where: S = acfm;
H = 7200 hours /year;
K = $.01/kwh
Q = 0.01 gals/acfm;
2 = 0.006 hp/acfm;
W = 0.005 gals/hr acfm;
M = 0.03/acfm;
h = 30 feet; -
1 = $0.5 x 10"°/gals.
Operating costs for a wide range of incinerator size were
calculated and an average cost based on dollars per ton used
for cost estimating purposes.
TABLE IV-2. - MUNICIPAL INCINERATOR CONTROL COSTS
Size
(tons/day)
50
100
200
300
500
600
700
1000
Flue Gas Volume
(1000 acfm)!/
40
80
160
240
350
420
420
600
Collection
Eff . (percent)
85
85
85
85
90
90
95
95
Installed Cost
($1000 total)!/
28
52
100
150
250
300
350
480
($/daily ton)
560
520
500
500
500
500
500
480
Annualized Cost
($1000)
20
39
77
115
172
207
213
302
($/daily ton)
400
390
380
380
340
340
300
300
For sizes 50*.- 300 tons per day, use 800 acfm/ton.
For sizes 500 - 600 tons per day, use 700 acfm/ton.
For sizes 700 tons per day and larger, use 600 acfm/ton.
-' See Figure IV-1.
b.
Control Costs for Smaller-Sized Incinerators
A one ton per day model size unit operating for 5 hours per day
and 360 days per year (1800 hours per year) was used as a base for calcu-
lating control cost. Installed cost of a scrubber for this size
unit (400 pounds per hour capacity) designed to meet the New York
IV-6
-------
1000
A= Installed Cost—ESP
B= Installed Cost—Scrubber
C =* Annual Costs—Scrubber
D= Annual Costs—ESP
500
400
300
200
100
50
20
50 100 200
Incinerator Size (tons/day)
300 400 500 700 1000
Fig. IV-1. Municipal Incinerator Particulate Control Costs.
IV-7
-------
State regulation is about $1000.^ Particulate control efficiencies
on the order of 60 to 80 percent are required.
Annualized control costs were calculated as follows [Ref. 7]:
G - S[0.7457HK Z + Qh + WHL + M] = 920 (0.119)
1980
= $109/year/daily ton
where:
21
S - 920 acfrn—';
H » 1800 hours/year;
K - $0.01/kwh;
Z - 0.006 hp/acfm;
Q = 0.01 gals/acfm;
h = 30 feet;
W - 0.005 gal/acfia;
L - $0.05 x 10-3/gal;
M - $0.03/acfn.
Capital charges at 15%, (.15 x $1000) = $150/year/daily ton
TOTAL Annualized Cost = $259/daily ton
c. Auto Body Disposal Costs
Calculations to determine investment and annual costs of auto
body disposal for a metropolitan area are presented below. A controlled
incinerator handling 30 cars per day costs about $25,000 [Ref. 8].
1) Investment Cost:
Investment $25.000 $ 8/car/vear
Cost/Car 30 cars/day x 300 days/year *Z'B/Car/vear-
Metropolitan Area _ metropolitan area population 27 cars
Investment Cost ~ 1000 X 1 year
3/
x O.SO^'x $2.8/car/year = $39/1000 population.
2) Operating Cost, assuming $4/car:
Metropolitan Area metropolitan
Operating Cost = area population x 27 cars/1000 population
1000 1 year
3/
x 0.50-'x $4/car = $56/1000 population/year.
•i' An average value; control costs for small incinerators vary from
$600 to $1300 per daily ton of refuse burned [Ref. 9].
—I Based on 16,000 ft3 of flue gas per 10 Btu of heat input, and 5000
Btu/lb of refuse.
5000 Btu x 4000 Ib/hr x JL_ x 16.000 ft3 - 535 ft3/min at 70°F,
lb. 60 min/hr 10b Btu
or about 920 acfm at 450°F.
—' Assuming 50 percent of all scrapped cars are presently being burned.
IV-8
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All uncontrolled emissions were based upon the emission
rate shown in Table IV-3.
TABLE IV-3. - EMISSION RATES FOR VARIOUS SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL PRACTICES^'
I/
Process
Open Burning
Municipal Incinerators
Domestic & Commercial
Incinerators
Sanitary Landfill
Particulate
17
17
12
0
21
Hydrocarbons—
30
1.5
7
0
Carbon
Monoxide
85
1.0
15
0
c«
Pounds per ton of refuse.
As Methane.
Cost of Control
The total investment requirement for implementing this plan would
be $201 million and the annual cost, as of FY 1976, would be $113 million.
These costs are in addition to expenditures for control before 1967.
IV-9
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III. STATIONARY FUEL COMBUSTION
A. Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
1. Present and Projected Emissions
In 1967, there were approximately 952 thousand heating plants
in commercial-institutional establishments (hotels, retail stores,
schools, hospitals, etc.) located within the 298 metropolitan
areas. These heating plants consumed 4.3 million tons of coal, 267
million barrels of oil, and 1.58 trillion cubic feet of gas in 1967.
The combustion of these fuels resulted in emissions of 127 thousand
tons of particulate matter and 940 thousand tons of sulfur oxides.
Current emissions from these plants are under little or no control.
It is assumed that no additional coal-fired commercial-
institutional heating plants were or will be built during the
period from 1967 through Fiscal Year 1976. Consumption of oil and
gas by such heating plants is expected to increase to 417 million
barrels and 3.64 million cubic feet, respectively. The average
value of the sulfur content of the fuel oil is assumed to be one
percent by weight.
Given these fuel use patterns, it is estimated that annual
emissions from commercial-institutional heating plants in the 298
metropolitan areas would reach 152 thousand tons of particulate
matter and 1,440 thousand tons of sulfur oxides by Fiscal Year 1976.
2. Control of Emissions
It appears that control of sulfur oxides and particulate
emissions from commercial-institutional heating plants in the 298
metropolitan areas can be accomplished by Fiscal Year 1976 by
switching those plants currently using coal as a fuel to the use of
oil.
Through such fuel switching, emissions would be reduced to 135
thousand tons of particulate matter and 1,400 thousand tons of sulfur
oxides. The reductions are rather small because, even without fuel
switching, it is expected, first, that little coal would be burned
in such heating plants in Fiscal Year 1976 and, second, that all the
oil utilized would meet the standards listed in Appendix II.
IV-10
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3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Particulate and SO- emissions were calculated for the 298
metropolitan areas using the uncontrolled emission rates shown
in Table IV-4.
TABLE IV-4. - UNCONTROLLED EMISSION RATES FOR COMMERCIAL-
INSTITUTIONAL SPACE HEATING
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Emission Rates
Particulate
20 Ibs./ton
8 Ibs./lOOO gal.
19 lbs./106 cf
so2
*
38 (S) Ibs./ton
157 (S)* Ibs./lOOO
gal.
1.4 lbs./106 cf
B.
* (S) is sulfur content of fuel expressed as a percent.
The incremental fuel costs were based upon a factor of $3.93
per ton of coal replaced. This factor reflects both the increased
cost of oil on a B.t.u. basis plus a low sulfur oil premium.
4. Estimated Control Costs
It is estimated that the investment required to change the
estimated 21 thousand existing coal burning heating plants over to
oil will be almost $41.7 million, a unit conversion cost of $2,000.
The total annual cost, including both the incremental fuel costs
(on a B.t.u. basis) and the annualized cost of the initial invest-
ment, will be $25.1 million per year.
Industrial Boilers
1. Present and Projected Emissions
In 1967, there were an estimated 307 thousand industrial
boilers in the United States, with an estimated 256 thousand
located within the 298 metropolitan areas. These boilers supply
steam for material processing, space heating, and electric-power
generation and annually consume 45 million tons of coal and 162
million barrels of oil, as well as a significant quantity of
natural gas. Emissions from these boilers, assuming an estimated
IV-11
-------
61.5 percent control level for participates and zero for sulfur
oxides, amounted to 1,360 thousand tons of particulates and 2,330
thousand tons of sulfur oxides.
Of the oil consumed, approximately 81 percent is residual
oil with an average sulfur content of 1.5 percent; the remaining
19 percent is distillate oils with a sulfur content averaging 0.5
percent. By Fiscal Year 1976, the annual consumption of coal is
expected to drop to about 38 million tons, with the usage of oil
increasing to 220 million barrels. It is expected that a signifi-
cant percentage of the additional oil will be of an acceptable
sulfur content of not more than 1.38 percent.
By Fiscal Year 1976, without implementation of the Clean Air
Act, emissions from industrial boilers within the 298 metropolitan
areas could be expected to reach 1,410 thousand tons of particulate
matter and 2,310 thousand tons of sulfur oxides.
2. Control of Emissions
Control costs were estimated on the basis of switching existing
coal burning boilers to oil as well as the additional fuel costs
of switching from coal and high-sulfur fuel oil to oil with a
sulfur content of not more than 1,38 percent. Under this plan
emissions would be reduced to 142 thousand tons of particulate
matter and 1,100 thousand tons of sulfur oxides, 99.0 percent and
50.5 percent reductions, respectively.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Emissions from industrial boilers within the 298 metropolitan
areas were calculated on the basis of the emission rates shown in
Table IV-5.
TABLE IV-5. - EMISSION FACTORS FOR INDUSTRIAL BOILERS
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Emission Rates
Particulate
9 (A)-' Ibs/ton of coal
19 lbs/1000 gals, of
oil
19 Ibs /IQ6 cf gas
so2
38 CS)-^ Ibs/ton of
coal
157 CS) lb-s/1000
gals, of oil
1.4 Ibs /106 cf gas
I/
— Ash content expressed as a percent. An average value of 8 was used
in this study.
2 /
— Sulfur content expressed as a percent.
IV-12
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The incremental annual fuel costs were based on a factor of
$0.152 per million B.t.u. This value is based upon a $0.09 per
million B.t.u. additional cost of burning oil of high-sulfur
content instead of coal plus a $0.062 per million B.t.u. charge
for oil desulfurization.
4. Estimated Control Costs
These, controls are estimated to require an investment of
$16,500 per boiler for a total investment of $1,050 million with
a total annualized cost of $555 million.
C. Residential Heating Plants
1. Present and Projected Emissions
The population of the 298 metropolitan areas in 1967 was
approximately 166,882,000. An estimated 47 million dwelling units
housed this population. For the purposes of residential heating
in 1967, 7.6 million tons of coal, 343 million barrels of distillate
oil and 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were consumed.
Combustion of these fuels resulted in annual emissions of 160
thousand tons of particulates and 776 thousand tons of sulfur
oxides, with only coal burning exceeding the maximum limit of the
selected regulations Csee Appendix II).
Recent trends indicate that the use of coal as a home heating
fuel is diminishing dramatically. In the United States in 1967, an
estimated 22 million tons of coal were consumed for this purpose
whereas it is projected that less than 9 million tons will be con-
sumed in Fiscal Year 1976. There also is predicted diminishing
utilization of distillate oil, although less dramatic than the
reduction in coal usage. The increased use of natural gas and
electrical heating is expected to supplant these fuels and meet
the additional home heating requirements predicted by Fiscal Year
1976. By that time, emissions will be reduced to 120 thousand
tons of particulates and 597 thousand tons of sulfur o-xides.
2. Control of Emissions and Estimated Control Costs
Because the utilization of coal for residential heating is
decreasing by "natural attrition" and because all the other modes of
home heating fall well within the emission standards, no control
costs are assigned to this source category.
IV-13
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By Fiscal Year 1976, the emission of particulates and sulfur
oxides will be reduced to 120 thousand tons and 597 thousand tons,
respectively. The source of about 75 percent of each of these
emissions will be the combustion of low-sulfur content distillate
oil which currently meets the most stringent combustion standards.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Emissions from residential heating plants within the 298
metropolitan areas were calculated on the basis of the emission
rates in Table IV-6.
TABLE IV-6. - EMISSION RATES FOR RESIDENTIAL HEATING PLANTS
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Emission Rate
Particulate
20 Ibs/ton of coal
12 lbs/1000 gals.
of oil
19 lbs/106 cf. of
gas
so2
*
38 CS) Ibs/ton of
coal
*
157 (S) lbs/1000
gals, of oil
0.4 Ib /106 cf.
of gas
*Sulfur content expressed as a percent.
D. Steam-Electric Power Plants
1. Present and Projected Emissions
In 1967, there were 516 investor and municipally owned (public)
fossil fuel steam-electric power plants of 25 megawatts or greater
capacity in the United States. These plants contained 2,984 steam
boilers and consumed 270 million tons of coal and 6,753 million
gallons of residual fuel oil. Within the 298 metropolitan areas,
there were 387 power plants in which 2,060 boilers were located;
this does not include the Tennessee Valley Authority power plants.
On an annual basis, it is estimated that 1967 particulate and
sulfur oxide emissions from the power plants located in the 298
areas amounted to 1,60.0. thousand and 7,370 thousand tons, respectively.
In spite of a particulate control level of 78 percent, these emissions
accounted for 49.3 percent of all particulates. and 64,6 percent pf all
sulfur oxides from fuel combustion sources in the 298 metropolitan
areas in 1967.
IV-14
-------
Without the implementation of the Clean Air Act, emissions of
particulate matter and sulfur oxides would reach 1,980 thousand tons
and 10,100 thousand tons, respectively, by Fiscal Year 1976.
2. Control of Emissions
In power plants utilizing high sulfur coal and/or residual
fuel oil, having a rated capacity in excess of 200 megawatts, and
with an overall plant load factor in excess of 17 percent, it was
assumed that wet limestone injection scrubbing systems would be
installed to provide for the simultaneous control of particulate
matter and sulfur oxides. Depending on the number and size of
individual boilers within each plant, one or more wet limestone
scrubbers would be required; control costs and emission reductions
have been calculated accordingly. For high sulfur coal and residual
oil burning power plants of less than 200 megawatts capacity or
plants operating at less than a 17 percent load factor, it was
assumed that it will be more economical to replace these fuels
with low sulfur fuels. The premiums assigned to the use of low
sulfur fuels were 90 cents per ton of coal and 80 cents per barrel
of oil. Such a fuel switch is consistent with currently projected
availability patterns for low sulfur fuels. With implementation
of the Clean Air Act, the Fiscal Year 1976 emissions of particulates
and sulfur oxides would be reduced to 533 thousand tons and 1,600
thousand tons, respectively.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The engineering analysis required to develop control costs
for the steam-electric industry had three basic APCO guidelines:
(1) be as effective as possible in reducing sulfur oxide emissions,
(2) consider the latest technology, and (3) be realistic with regard
to availability, cost, and fuel market impact. Preliminary consid-
eration of an across-the-board switch for high-sulfur coal and oil
and low-sulfur fuels was unfeasible in light of present supplies as
well as other constraints.-' Consideration of hardware control of
sulfur oxide indicated that among the dozen or more processes being
studied, wet limestone injection scrubbing systems seem to be the most
promising alternative.-1 For the purposes of this report, therefore,
-^ See Appendix V for a full discussion of this subject.
- Supplied by APCO. IV-15
-------
use of several control alternatives including some fuel switching and
wet limestone scrubbers was assumed. Table IV-7 below indicates the
control alternatives finally selected.
TABLE IV-7. - CONTROL ALTERNATIVES SELECTED FOR THE
STEAM-ELECTRIC INDUSTRY
Industry
Fuel Type
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Natural Gas
Sulfur
Content
(percent)
*
> 1
> 1
> 1
* 1
> 1.38
> 1.38
> 1.38
< 1.38
N/A
Plant Capacity
(megawatts)
>200
>200
<200
Any
>200
>200
<200
Any
Any
Plant Load
Factor
(percent)
>17
<17
Any
Any
>17
<17
Any
Any
Any
Control
Alternative
Wet limestone
scrubbing
Low-sulfur coal +
Part, collection
Low-sulfur coal +
Part, collection
Part, collection
Wet limestone
scrubbing
Low-sulfur oil
Low-sulfur oil
No change
No change
> Greater than.
< Less than.
The choice of the 200 megawatt criterion was based upon the
fact that in 1968 power plants rated at less than 200 megawatts
consumed 33.3 million tons of coal. Based upon the National Academy
of Engineers estimate that present pyrite washing techniques could
add annually over 50 million tons of low-sulfur coal to the market,
this criterion appears to be reasonable. The load factor of 17
percent was chosen as a threshold for economic reasons. The wet
limestone scrubbing process appears more economical than fuel
switching for plants with load factors in excess of 17 percent [Ref.10],
For the purpose of cost estimation, incremental costs for
desulfurized coal and oil were required. An additional cost of 90
cents per tons of coal was utilized based upon a recent National
Academy of Engineers Report [Ref. 11]. An additional cost of 80
cents per barrel of residual oil was utilized [Ref. 12]. Both figures
IV-16
-------
represent the higher end of the ranges given by the sources but were
considered the most realistic estimates available. Desulfurizing
would reduce the sulfur content of both fuels to about one percent
or less.
The cost estimating procedure for the dolomite-injection/ wet
scrubbing process used cost equations developed by APCO. The equa-
tions, as shown below, are valid for capacities between 25 and 1,000
megawatts (MW) and for a load factor of 91 percent. They also assume
stack gas reheat to 250 F by indirect liquid gas method and two stage
scrubbing.
Investment Cost ($1000) = 10,800(MW) - 4.58(MW)2 + 934(.S) (MW)
- 0.396(S)(MW)2, and
Annual Cost ($1000) = L[112.7(MW)S - 8.33(MW)]+ 1.3M
[.018(MW) + .595(8 + .0015(MW)S + 7.38]
+ 1.2W [.36S(MW)] + 1.2K [.0548(MW)
- .00945S(MW) + .0020(MW)S2] + T[11.799(MW)
- .00536(MW)2] + C[Investment Cost]
+ 1.2[322.57(MW) - .14376(MW)2 + 29.46(MW)S
- .01313S (MW)2];
where:
MW = Megawatt rating;
S = Sulfur content of fuel as a percent;
L * Limestone cost, $/ton;
M = Cost of labor, $/1000 man-hours;
W = Cost of water, $/10 gals.;
K = Cost of electricity, $/10 kwh;
T = Cost of technical labor, $/man-hour; and
C = Annual capital charges as a percent of fixed investment,
as a decimal.
The values assigned to these variables are as follows:
6/
MW - Plant data,-
S - Plant data,—
L - $2.05,
M - $4000,
W - .$100,
K - $4000,
6/
- Supplied by APCO.
IV-17
-------
T - $7.50, and
C - 14.5%.
The above relationships can be applied to oil burning installations
with two modifications: the oil sulfur content must be divided by 1.35
and the megawatt rating must be multiplied by 0.95.
If the power plant load factor is different from 91 percent,
corrections must be made to the annual cost as developed in the above
equation. Correction factors were developed separately for three load
factor ranges and for coal and oil boilers. The correction factors (C.F.)
are stated as a function of load factor (L.F.) and uncorrected annual
cost (X).
For coal boilers:
1. 64% < L.F. 1100%
C.F. . |91% TL.P. (.00855) (X) + X] x
2. 33%±L.F. ±63%
C.F. = [1. 230000 + (63% - L.F.).0256(X)] x
3. 17%lL.F. 132
C.F. = £2.024600 + (32% - L.F.) .0967 (X)] x
For oil boilers:
1. 64%iL.F. 191%
C.F. - [(91% - L.F.) (.0085500 + X] x bb*;*
J-Zj
2. 33% 1L.F. 163%
C.F. = [1.230900 + (63%- L.F.) (.0256) (X)J x
3. 17%1L.F. 132%
C.F. = [2.0246(X) + (32% - L.F.) (.0967) (X)] x
4- Estimated Control Costs
Based upon the low sulfur fuel price premiums discussed above,
as well as preliminary cost data for wet limestone scrubbing systems,
control costs by Fiscal Year 1976 for all high-sulfur coal and oil
burning plants within the 298 metropolitan areas were calculated.
These are an investment requirement of $1,340 million and a total
annual cost of $426 million. These costs would increase electric
energy costs to the average consumer by 2 percent.
IV-18
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IV. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
A. Asphalt Batching
1. Introduction
The road paving material commonly called asphalt (more
technically known as asphalt concrete, and often referred to as
hot mix asphalt paving in the industry) is a heated mixture of
crushed stone aggregate and asphalt. It is most commonly produced
by a batch process with an estimated average production rate in the
range of 150-200 tons per hour. Crushed stone or other aggregate is
mixed and dried in a drying kiln and fed into a pugmill where it is
mixed with asphalt. This hot mix is loaded into trucks for quick
delivery to the work site where it is applied while still hot.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
The asphalt batching process emits pollutant emissions
in the form of dust particulates, emitted primarily by the aggregate
drier and to a lesser extent by the conveying, screening, weighing,
and mixing equipment. General industry practice is to combine the
off gases from the drier and the emissions from other process points
as collected in a ventline and send the combined gas stream through
a cyclone dust collector [Ref. 13]. This results in approximately
80 percent removal of dust, reducing the estimated average 25 pounts
of dust per ton of asphalt batched [Ref .14] to 5 pounds per ton remain-
ing as uncontrolled emissions. The 1967 industry total of 452,000
tons of particulate would increase to 571,000 tons in Fiscal Year 1976
at the same level of controls.
To meet the process weight rate standards assumed for this
study (see Appendix II), venturi scrubbers with a 10 inch water
gauge pressure drop have been stipulated for all plants. The
investment requirement estimated for these controls is $15,4 -million
and the annual costs are $12.3 million, beginning in Fiscal Year
1976,
IV-19
-------
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The processes considered in this study include the major
source of dust in the industry, the aggregate drier, as well as
secondary sources, which include aggregate elevators, vibrating
screens, hot aggregate bins, weigh hoppers and aggregate mixers.
The trend in the industry is to combine the off gases from the
drier and all the secondary sources (captured in a so-called vent-
line) and send the resulting gas stream to a single collector.
Uncontrolled emissions amount to 25 pounds of dust per ton of
asphalt size distribution of particulates batched [Ref. 14]. Pres-
ently, it is estimated that the industry as a whole controls to a
level of 80 percent; therefore, present emissions which are considered
herein as uncontrolled amount to 5 pounds per ton of asphalt
produced. Required removal efficiencies were calculated on the
basis of the process weight rate standard and an uncontrolled rate
of 5 pounds per ton. These are shown in Table IV-8.
TABLE IV-8. - INCREMENTAL REMOVAL EFFICIENCIES REQUIRED
Process Size
(tons /hour)
40
100
150
200
Incremental
Efficiency Required
(percent)
79
91
93
95
In order to meet these control requirements, it appears that
the application of a 10-inch w.g. wet scrubber is cost effective.
Table IV-9 summarizes control costs as a function of plant capacity
and related gas volume.
Venturi scrubbers with a pressure drop of 10 inches, w.g., will
achieve required removals [Ref. 13]. In all cases, an 80-percent
efficient primary collector was considered as process equipment.
IV-20
-------
TABLE IV-9. - ASPHALT BATCHING EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Kiln Gas Volume
(103 acfm)
6
12
18
20
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Equivalent Plant
Capacity
(tons of mix per hr.)
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
360+
Costs
($1000)
Inves tment
4.0
5.9
7.3
8.8
9.6
10.5
11.6
12.6
13.6
14.7
15.6
16.4
Annua]
2.7
4.0
5.3
7.0
8.2
9.6
11.0
12.1
13.3
14.1
15.3
18.4
To relate process size to control system size, a factor of
19 thousand scfm (at an inlet temperature of 200 F) per 100 tons
per hour were used [Ref. 15].
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Data on the location of plants were incomplete. However, detailed
data on plant capacities and production were incomplete; these data
were estimated by applying the known distribution of plant sizes in .
38 states to the known number of plants in the metropolitan areas.
Financial data by plant or firm were even more fragmentary and similar
estimating procedures were used. As a result, estimated industry
costs may be somewhat in error, probably understated to a degree.
The figures given are, however, felt to indicate the order of magni-
tude of industry cost impact and to reflect a reasonable approximation
of the control cost per ton of product.
IV-21
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5. Industry Structure
The asphalt batching industry, .which has 1,284 plants in the
United States and 1,064 in the 298 metropolitan areas, is charac-
terized by a large number of relatively small firms, many with only
one plant and others with two or three plants. Most of the firms
are small in comparison with the giant firms of some of the other
industries in this study. Sales average close to $500,000 per year
per plant. Most firms are closely held and the profits of a typical
firm apparently support only one or a small number of owner-managers.
Firms are widely dispersed across the country, mostly close to urban
markets. Because of the necessity to deliver hot asphalt paving to
the job site, plants can serve only a very limited geographic area.
As a result, some plants have been designed to be mobile, moving from
job to job. Most installations can be shut down and moved to new loca-
tions with relatively small cost. Resources used in the process (sand,
crushed aggregate, and asphalt) are available almost anywhere.
6. Market
The market for asphalt paving mixtures is largely a function of
road building and maintenance programs. Generally, such projects are
contracted on a competitive bid basis. In the larger metropolitan
areas, at least, this results in aggressive competitiion among firms
and acts as a limiting force on profits. The degree of competition,
size of the market, and growth in number and size of firms vary con-
siderably across the country and from year to year, depending upon
regional policies and spending programs.
The chief competitor to asphalt paving is concrete. Asphalt
paving, however, is usually cheaper and simpler to install, although
the concrete industry challenges asphalt on the basis of whole-life
cost, including maintenance. In minor markets such as driveways,
ready-mixed concrete firms are reported to have had some success in
competing with asphalt when special promotional campaigns have been
undertaken [Ref. 16].
IV-22
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7. Trends
It is expected that capacity and production in asphalt
batching will grow at the rate of approximately 3.1 percent per
year through Fiscal Year 1976, continuing the pattern of the 1960's.
This would reflect a continued growth in government expenditures
for highway building, although shifts in market location may be
expected as construction of the interstate system slows and the
emphasis shifts to secondary and urban roads and airports.
8. Economic Impact of Control Costs
This analysis indicates that by Fiscal Year 1976 total annual
pollution control costs to the asphalt batching industry will run
at the rate of $12.3 million per year. For an estimated Fiscal
Year 1976 production of 227 million tons, this indicates an incre-
mental cost of only $0,054 per ton. Assuming approximately 800
firms in the 298 metropolitan areas, the estimated annual cost for
the average firm would be $15,375. If a typical firm has sales of
$500,000 per year and profits before taxes of 12 percent of sales,
or $60,000, absorption of the increased cost would reduce profit
by one-third. These firms may be expected, therefore, to try
to raise prices by the full amount of the added cost. In a small
market, where sales are almost entirely based on competitive bidding,
these price increases would be difficult to achieve unless almost
all firms are subject to the same cost changes. This apparently
would be true for most of the asphalt industry and prices may
therefore rise $0.05 to $0.06 per ton. Although this is a small
amount per ton of paving material, it does imply an increase of
approximately $12.3 million for the nation as a whole as an equiv-
alent increase in public expenditures.
It is to be expected that all producers in a region or market
will tend to postpone installation of new equipment as long as possible
so as to avoid incurring this cost before competitors. When regulatory
orders force compliance, most firms will act at the same time. If this
occurs, there is little reason to anticipate financial difficulties for
the firms involved, except for those whose sources of credit make it
difficult to raise the funds for an investment estimated to average
approximately $19,000 per single plant firm.
IV-2 3
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B. Brick and Tile
1. Introduction
The brick and tile industry, represented by Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) Code 3251, includes those establishments primarily
engaged in manufacturing brick and structural clay tile. The processes
involved in manufacturing brick and related products include: grinding,
screening, and blending af raw materials; forming; drying or curingj
firing; and cutting. After the clay has been mined, it is transported
to plant storage bins where the clays are blended to produce a more
uniform raw material, control color, and allow raw material suitability
for manufacturing a variety of units. Preparation of the raw material
to produce brick and tile involves crushing the clay to remove large
chunks, followed by grinding. The clay is then screened and the form-
ing process begins. Water is added to the clay in a pugmill, a mixing
chamber containing two or more revolving blades. The clay is then molded.
Before the burning process begins, excess water is evaporated in drier
kilns at temperatures ranging from 100° to 400° F for a period of 24 to
48 hours, depending on the type of clay. Heat may be generated primarily
for drier kilns but it is commonly supplied as waste heat from burning
kilns. Burning is one of the most specialized steps and requires 40 to
150 hours depending on kiln type and other variables. Several types of
kilns are used, the chief types being tunnel and periodic. Natural
gas, oil, or coal is used as fuel, and temperatures up to 2400° F are
used in firing. Dried units are placed in periodic kilns permitting
circulation of hot kiln gases. In tunnel kilns, units are loaded on
special cars that pass through various temperature zones as they travel
through the tunnel. Drying occurs in the forward section of the kiln,
utilizing heat from the combustion gases to preheat and dry the formed
clay as it moves toward the firing section. The heat required per ton
of brick produced is 3-4 x 10 B.t.u.'s. The cooling period requires
48 to 72 hours.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
Particulate emissions in the brick and tile industry are in the
form of dust from the blending, storage, and grinding operations and
IV-2 4
-------
off-gases from the tunnel kilns. Particulates from blending, storage
and grinding are minimized by sufficient moisture and these emissions
are well within the limits set by the particulate standards. Particu-
lates from the kiln are mainly a combustion product and are a function
of the fuel used.
Sulfur dioxide may be emitted if firing temperatures reach 2500° F
or more or when using fuel containing sulfur [Ref. 28]. As stated pre-
viously, firing temperatures do not normally exceed 2500° F. In general,
the fuel used is either oil or natural gas with acceptable sulfur content.
Emissions of sulfur dioxide, therefore, were considered to be negligible.
Fluorides, emitted in a gaseous form, result from heating clay con-
taining fluorides. Data on the fluoride content of clay are very sketchy.
There is evidence that not all clay contains fluorides and where there is
no fluoride content, fluoride emissions are no problem. This may occur
on a region wide basis where a number of plants use clay of similar or
the same geologic origin. In this analysis, in order to assess the impact
expected, it is assumed that clay contains fluorides in proportion to the
average fluoride content of all clays and that fluoride emissions of 1.23
pounds per ton of clay result [Ref. 28]. At present, it is believed that
fluoride control is not practiced anywhere in the industry. On this
basis, fluoride emissions estimated for the 298 metropolitan areas for
1967 were 15,600 tons with no controls. At the rate of growth estimated
for the brick industry, these fluoride emissions would reach 20,800 tons
in Fiscal Year 1976 without controls.
Fluoride emissions can be reduced to very low levels by scrubbing
the kiln gases with water. This also serves as a particulate control
method. For the purposes of this report a fluoride control standard
requiring 95 percent removal efficiency is assumed. A single cyclone
scrubber can remove fluorides at an efficiency in excess of 95 percent.
This control level would reduce Fiscal Year 1976 fluoride emission to
1,000 tons and would require investment and annual costs of $40.8
million and $11.6 million, respectively.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Assuming that no coal is being used in the industry, particulate
emissions are well within the limits set by this year's particulate
standards. Therefore, particulates as such need not be considered.
However, since some entrainment of fluorides by the combustion
IV-25
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particulates can be expected, some form of participate control should
be implemented. As will be shown, the control device selected for the
control of gaseous fluorides will also act as a particulate control
device.
Costs have been developed for a fluoride emission control system
composed of a single stage wet cyclone scrubber connected by ductwork
to a typical tunnel kiln. These are shown in Figures IV-2 and IV-3
as a function of brick making capacity. This control system can remove
gaseous fluorides with an efficiency in excess of 95 percent as well as
removing particulates, in the case of coal combustion, to a level of
90 percent. Therefore, with the predominant fluoride emission being
gaseous, the system can easily remove 95 percent of total fluoride
emissions.
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Detailed and accurate data on firms in this industry and their
plant production and operations were not available during the prepara-
tion of this report. Therefore, some of the statistics used may not
be absolutely accurate but it is believed that the analysis is
sufficiently valid to determine the economic impact of air pollution
controls. It was not possible, however, to relate projected costs
directly to the operation of typical firms or to regional market and
price variations.
The question of the fluoride content of the clay used in brick
making in the United States (discussed briefly in the previous section)
casts doubt on the control cost estimates made. It seems probable that
the fluoride emission estimates and the corresponding estimates of
control costs are exaggerated. The extent of the exaggeration will not
be known until more data are available on the fluoride content of the
various clays used by the industry.
5. Industry Structure
In 1967 there were 469 firms in the United States with 301 in the
298 metropolitan areas. United States production was 8,260 million
brick and common brick equivalents having a value of $342.1 million.
Production within the 298 areas was 5,910 million brick equivalents,
72 percent of the United States total. These firms average about 57
employees each and on the average produce 17.6 million brick and brick
IV-26
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300
2.5
200
1.5
D
D
3
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2.5
20
1.5
10
i.iil
I
11
10 1.5 20 2.530 40 5O 60 80 100 1.5 2002.5300
KILN CAPACITY - TONS BRICK PER DAY
500 700
Fig. IV-2. Brick and Tile Installed and Purchase Costs of Control
Systems [Ref. 28].
IV-2 7
-------
50
40
§ 30
O
o
o
8 20
10
0
0
100 200 300
KILN CAPACITY - TONS BRICK PER DAY
400
Fig. IV-3, Brick and Tile Annualized Cost of Control Systems [Ref. 28]
IV-2 8
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equivalents having a value of $729,400. However, 120 of these firms
or about 25 percent had fewer than 20 employees indicating there are
a number of marginal firms. Since 1958, 85 firms either have gone out
of business or consolidated with other firms. Consolidation has been
the trend in this industry as in other industries. Value of output
in 1967 per production worker was $15,700, which is low compared to
other industries. This has increased from $10,600 in 1958 and $13,200
in 1963.
Texas has more plants than any other state with 44 plants, followed
by Ohio with 41 plants; Pennsylvania is third with 33 plants.
6. Market
The construction industry purchases about 97 percent of the out-
put of the brick and tile industry. The performance of the brick and
tile industry is therefore closely related to construction activity
and more specifically to residential construction. Production increases
and decreases as residential building increases or decreases. Even in
residential construction these products are a rather negligible cost.
Their use is influenced more by taste and the cost to install than by
the cost of the item itself.
Because of the weight and bulk of brick and tile products, markets
are regional in character rather than national. Intra-product competi-
tion is as much on specialty items, style, finishes, and color as on
price. There are enough firms in most market areas to assure that
prices cannot get out of line.
The major competitor to the industry is other building materials.
Products such as concrete, wood, aluminum, asbestos, glass, steel and
plastics compete in two ways. First, they compete directly on initial
price. Second and more importantly, they compete on cost in place, a
concept that includes both cost of material and cost of installation
labor. Such competition limits the possibilities for brick and tile
price increases.
7. Trends
Between 1958 and 1967, the value of new public and private building
construction grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent. During this same
period, brick and tile shipments increased by only 2.8 percent per year.
The disparity in these rates of growth primarily reflects the declining
usage of brick.
IV-29
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The principal reason for the decline in the utilization of brick
appears to be the cost of brick-in-place. Between 1959 and 1969, the
cost of brick increased 22 percent compared with the 17 percent
increase in the cost of all construction materials. Furthermore, in
the same period, the average wage rate for union bricklayers increased
at a rate over twice the rate of increase in brick prices. Assuming
no increase in the productivity of bricklayers over the last decade
(indeed, it is frequently alleged that union restrictions have reduced
the number of bricks per day a bricklayer can lay), a cost index for
brick-in-place shows about the same rate of growth as the average
wage rate for bricklayers. This results because labor represents
about 75 percent of the cost of brick-in-place.
Thus, it would appear that any increase in the cost of brick
production which was passed on as a price increase of brick would
aggravate the trend away from the use of brick in new construction
and further limit brick production.
8. Economic Impact of ControlCosts
The analysis indicates that by Fiscal Year 1976 total annual control
cost to the brick and tile industry in the 298 metropolitan areas
will run at the rate of $11.6 million per year. For an estimated
1976 production of 6.6 million brick and brick equivalents, an
incremental cost of $1.76 per thousand brick is indicated. For the
301 firms in the 298 metropolitan areas, the estimated annual cost
for the average firm would be $38,500. Few firms in this industry
can afford a cost increase of this nature entirely from profits. At
the same time because of the competitive position of brick among
building materials and its declining market share, it is doubtful that
a cost increase as small as this could be passed on in full to consumers
as a price increase without further loss of markets. Thus, while prices
may be expected to rise, due to the added cost of air pollution control,
above the level they would otherwise achieve by 1976, the rise is
expected to be in the range of $1.00 to $1.10 per thousand brick
instead of the full $1.76 average annual cost.
As with other industries, all the producers in a region or market
will avoid installation of pollution control equipment as long as
possible so as to avoid incurring this cost before competitors. When
IV-30
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regulatory orders force compliance, most firms will act at the same
time. When this occurs there is little reason to anticipate financial
difficulties for industry, except for those firms that are already
marginal. These few marginal firms can be expected to merge with
others or close.
D. Coal Cleaning
1. Introduction
Coal cleaning consists of removing some of the undesirable
materials from raw mine run coal. These materials consist of
sulfur compounds, dirt, clay, rock, shale, and other inorganic
impurities. Both bituminous and anthracite coal are cleaned.
Cleaning improves the quality of coal by increasing the B.t.u.
output per pound and by reducing ash content. It is accomplished
by washing the coal with air or water. Approximately 21 percent
of wet washed coal is thermally dried. Air cleaning is accom-
plished by the use of pneumatic cleaners, while drying is
accomplished predominantly with either flash driers or fluidized-
bed driers.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
The major air pollutant in the coal cleaning industry is
particulates in the form of dust from either flash driers,
fluidized-bed driers, or pneumatic cleaners.
Available data on the current level of control indicate that
87 percent of the flash and fluidized-bed driers and 16 percent
of the pneumatic cleaners are controlled at an efficiency of 80
percent. The composite level of control is about 58 percent when
the processes are weighted according to the quantity of coal handled.
Thus, aggregate emissions of particulates in 1967 totaled 64,700
tons. By Fiscal Year 1976, aggregate emissions at 58 percent
controls could be expected to total about 92,300 tons of particulates.
To obtain a composite level of 93 percent control in Fiscal Year
1976, flash driers will have to be controlled to an average level
of 93.2 percent efficiency, fluidized-bed driers to an average
level of 97.8 percent efficiency and pneumatic cleaners to an
average level of 94.5 percent. Aggregate annual emissions of
particulates can then be expected to be reduced to approximately
14,100 tons in Fiscal Year 1976.
IV-31
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Because of the coal dust content of the off-gases from coal
cleaning, a fire and explosion hazard exists. Because of this
explosion hazard, wet scrubbers constructed of mild steel rather
Jjhan baghouses are preferred as control devices [Refs. 17 and 18].
A 15 inch w.g. venturi scrubber was selected as the control device
for the fluidized-bed drier and a 10 inch w.g. venturi was assumed
for both the flash drier and the pneumatic cleaner. These pressure
drops will provide the efficiencies required. The investment
requirement would be $13.1 million and annual costs in Fiscal
Year 1976 would be $5.3 million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Coal is cleaned by both wet and dry methods. In this analysis
only the three predominant processes within the coal cleaning
industry were considered: flash and fluidized-bed thermal driers
(for coal cleaned by wet methods), and pneumatic cleaners. These
three processes are significant sources of particulate emissions
mostly in the form of coal dust. Uncontrolled particulate emission
rates from these three processes are shown in Table IV-10.
TABLE IV-10. - UNCONTROLLED PARTICULATE
EMISSION RATES FROM COAL CLEANING
PROCESSES*
Uncontrolled Emissions
Process (Ib/ton coal feed)
Flash drier 12
Fluidized-bed drier 13
Pneumatic cleaner 3
*
A cyclone is assumed part of process equipment,
not air pollution control equipment.
Source: Reference 17 and calculated from data
given in References 18 and 19.
Available data on the current level of control reveal that 87 per-
cent of both types of thermal driers and 16 percent of pneumatic cleaners
are controlled at an efficiency of 80 percent [Ref. 20]. The composite
IV-32
-------
level of control was about 58 percent, when the processes were weighted
according to the quantity of coal handled. To comply with the process
weight rate standard assumed in this analysis, flash driers, fluidized-
bed driers, and pneumatic cleaners will have to be controlled to
efficiencies of 93.2, 97.8, and 94.5 percent, respectively.
To develop control costs for the various unit processes, unit gas
volume estimates had to be made. Table IV-11 presents the estimates
along with the control equipment selected for each unit process.
TABLE IV-11. - UNIT GAS VOLUMES AND CONTROL EQUIPMENT
Gas Volume Selected Control
Process acfm/ton per hour Equipment
Flash Drier
Fluidized-bed Drier
Pneumatic Cleaner
540
480
357
10"
15"
10"
w.g.
w.g.
w.g.
venturi
venturi
venturi
Sources: References 21, 22, and 23.
The model processes considered in this analysis have the follow-
ing sizes: flash drier, 50 tons of coal feed per hour; fluidized-
bed drier, 208; and pneumatic cleaner, 70 [Refs. 18 and 21]. The gas
volumes (control system sizes) are 27, 99.9, and 25 thousand actual
cubic feet per minute for the flash drier, the fluidized-bed drier
and the pneumatic cleaner, respectively [Refs. 18, 19, and 21]. The
gas stream temperature assumed for this analysis was 159° F [Ref. 21].
The annual hours of operation were 3,750, assuming 2 shifts per day,
7.5 effective hours per shift, 5 days per week, and 50 weeks per year
Uef. 22].
Due to the considerable fire and explosion hazard associated with
coal dust, wet scrubbers instead of baghouses are preferred as control
devices [Refs. 21 and 23]. A 15" w.g. venturi scrubber was assumed as
the control device for the fluidized-bed drier and a 10" w.g. venturi
was assumed for both the flash drier and the pneumatic cleaner. These
pressure drops correspond to the required control efficiencies stated
above.
IV-33
-------
Cost estimates for controlling emissions from coal cleaning
establishments were based on the types of processes and on the produc-
tion [Ref. 24] in each plant. Output or production of total coal
cleaned was prorated to the different processes as follows: 7.1 per-
cent by pneumatic methods with the remainder to wet washing.
Nationally, only 20.7 percent of cleaned coal is thermally dried and
43.5 percent of thermally dried coal is dried in fluidized-bed driers
[Ref. 25]. The remaining 56.5 percent of thermally dried coal was
assumed to be dried in flash driers. For each plant in the 298 metro-
politan areas, it was assumed that coal was cleaned in the above
proportions.
Cost estimating factors were calculated for each unit process
based upon Figures IV-4 through IV-6. These factors are summarized
in Table IV-12.
TABLE IV-12. - COAL CLEANING CONTROL COSTS
Equipment Type
Pneumatic cleaners
Fluidized-bed driers
Flash Driers
Costs
($1000/ton/hour)
Investment
0.316
0.247
0.463
Annual
0.148
0.201
0.219
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Although there is a relatively large number of coal cleaning
plants in the United States, detailed data on plant locations,
capacities, and production are available. Metropolitan area
totals for capacities and production were obtained from these
data. However, it was not possible to determine the coal cleaning
process used in every case, so average values were applied to the
regional production and capacities to obtain volumes of emissions.
Growth estimates were made from past rates of increase in production.
Cost of control was based on cost to control a model plant of
.average size. Financial data and market information for the indus-
try are fairly complete.
IV-34
-------
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
9
8
7
6
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
B = 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined Separator
C = All Mild Steel
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-4. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-35
-------
1000
800
600
400
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
B = 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined Separator
C = All Mild Steel
200
o
o
o
(0
o 100
g
e
PH
•H
I 60
80
40
20
1
JL_L_LJ_L1J
20
40 60 80 100 200
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
400 600 800 1000
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-5. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-36
-------
1000
800
600
500
400
300
200
o
o
o
100
80
60
3
DO 50
Tl 40
«
I 30
o
8 20
•n
•H
Q
PRESSURE DROP
40 inch
3 4 5 678910
20 30 40 5060 80100
200 300 400 600 800
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-6, Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-37
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5. Industry Structure
Coal cleaning is a part of the process of improving the
quality of raw coal for market. It is usually done by the producer,
normally close to the mine to avoid transporting waste rock.
In 1967, the 667 coal cleaning plants in the United States
had a capacity of 370 million tons. Production totaled 349.0
million tons and had a value of shipments of $1.5 billion. Cleaning
plants are located in 20 states with over 90 percent located east
of the Mississippi. Sixty-ftine percent of the total plants are
located (in order of importance) in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and
Kentucky. Virginia, Illinois, and Ohio have 35 or more plants
each and with Alabama with 20 plants, make up more than 25 percent
of the total number of plants.
Only 256 of the 667 plants are in the 298 metropolitan areas,
and they account for only 37.6 percent, 37.5 percent, and 40 percent
of total industry capacity, production, and value of shipments,
respectively.
6. Market
The market for coal and thus the market for coal cleaning is
largely a function of the production of electric power and the
output of blast furnaces and basic steel. Almost 30 percent of
the industry output is utilized for generating electricity. Blast
furnaces and basic steel production utilize an additional 22 per-
cent. Exports amount to approximately 2 percent of output, mostly
of metallurgical coal. Besides coal mining, which purchases 19
percent of coal production, no other industry utilizes as much as
four percent of the remaining 27 percent of industry output.
Even though the electric power industry and the steel industry
utilize over half of coal production, coal makes up only about
four percent of the value of inputs into the electric power industry
and 2.3 percent of the inputs into steel production. These are
exceeded, but only slightly, by one other industry — the hydraulic
cement industry — where about 5.5 percent of the input is coal.
While coal does make up a rather small proportion of the
inputs into these industries, it is a rather important input
especially for steam-electric generation. For this reason many
IV-38
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of these industries own coal companies to provide their supplies.
Long term contracts, some as long as 20 years, are also used for
this purpose.
Even though coal companies are owned by other industry or
utilities, most sell at least some of their output in the open
market. This practice, together with the number of independent
coal companies, maintains competition among firms. In addition,
coal is in competition with other fuels — gas, oil, nuclear power,
and electricity (which is often produced from coal). All this
serves to limit profits.
In spite of its bulk, coal moves to a limited extent in the
export market. The United States is a net exporter, but the extent
of foreign trade is not great enough to have a major impact on
domestic supply. However, it does tend to push prices up, since
export prices may be as much as 30-50 percent above United States
prices.
Coal, along with other fuels, is currently enjoying an expanding
market. This is placing considerable pressure on production to
meet the growing demand.
7. Trends
It is expected that capacity and production will grow through
Fiscal Year 1976 at 4.8 percent per year. The proportion of coal
cleaned has also been steadily increasing. In 1927, the percentage
of total coal cleaned was 5.3 percent. By 1952, 49 percent of pro-
duction was cleaned and by 1965 the proportion was 65 percent. The
rising trend in coal cleaning can be expected to continue
as poorer seams are worked, more stringent sulfur oxide
limitations are established, and shipping costs increase.
8. Economic Impact of Control Costs
The indicated FY 1976 total annual cost of control to the
coal cleaning industry will run at the rate of $5,3 million per
year. For an estimated Fiscal Year 1976 production of 167 million
tons, this indicates an incremental cost of $0.03 per ton. For the
256 plants in the 298 metropolitan areas, the estimated annual cost
for the average plant would be $19,500. Plants of the average
size indicated here (annual production of about 650,000 tons)
could be expected to have no trouble absorbing a cost increase
IV-39
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of this size. Only firms already marginal would be affected.
However, because of the nature of coal as a production factor in
other goods or services, and the current demand for all fuels,
a price increase of $0.03 per ton could very easily be passed on
to buyers.
The current open market price for coal is $4.40 per ton f.o.b.
the mine. A $0.03 per ton cost is approximately one percent. This
increases the price of steel not more than $0.025 per ton, which is
insignificant compared to a current average price of $183.00 per ton.
Cement
1. Introduction
Portland cement accounts for approximately 98 percent of
cement production in the United States. All portland cement is
produced in either the wet or dry process, the chief difference
being whether the prepared ingredients are introduced into the
cement kiln as a dry mixture or as a wet slurry. The wet process
is used to produce approximately 58 percent of the cement.
Essentially, cement is made by quarrying cement rock, limestone,
clay, shale, and/or other materials, which are finely ground and
mixed. The prepared mix is burned in a long sloping kiln into
cement clinker, which is then ground into a fine powder and sold
in bulk or bagged.
2. Emissions and Cost of Control
Dust arising from crushing, grinding, and materials handling
processes is universally controlled at quite high efficiencies
because such controls recover valuable products. Kilns also emit
large amounts of particulates. These are generally not fully
controlled with the exception of plants built since 1960. Older
plants, which account for 76 percent of the capacity of the industry,
need additional control equipment to meet standards for control of
particulate emissions. It is estimated that 13 percent of all
cement plants will require completely new systems—either fabric
filters or electrostatic precipitators—and that the remaining
older plants have equipment in place that can be improved in
efficiency to meet the control standard. Thus, cement plants have
been grouped as follows: 24 percent for which no additional control
is specified and therefore no additional cost; 63 percent now
IV-40
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partially controlled, for which additional equipment and cost are
indicated; and 13 percent for which new control systems are indicated
and for which the incremental control cost will be greatest.
Particulate emissions from kilns in plants within the 298
metropolitan areas are estimated to have totalled 239,000 tons in
1967, representing an overall control level of 96 percent. This
industrywide control level is based on the assumption of 95 percent
control in pre-1960 plants and 99 percent control in all plants
built since 1960. Expanded production in pre-1960 plants would be
estimated to increase total particulate emissions to 280,000 tons
by FY 1976 if the same control level were maintained. With the
installation of new or more efficient fabric filters for dry process
kilns and electrostatic precipitators on wet process kilns, an
industry control level of 99.7 percent may be achieved, reducing
total emissions for Fiscal Year 1976 to 16,100 tons of particulates.
These controls would require an investment of $110 .million
and Fiscal Year 1976 annual costs of $30 .million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The primary difference with respect to pollution between the
wet and dry processes is the state in which the ground raw material
is fed into the kiln. The major unit processes involved are:
crushing and grinding, drying (dry process only), clinker production
(calcining), and final grinding. Dusts from,crushing and grinding
operations present only minor air pollution problems as these are
essentially closed systems, and the dust collected is returned to
the unit from which it was collected. The same is most often true
of the drier off-gases which are usually vented to either grinding
or calcining control system. This study focuses on controlling
particulate emissions from the calcining operation. The kiln
represents the major source of particulate emissions in the cement
industry, which is not well controlled at present.
Totally uncontrolled emissions from wet process kilns average
38 pounds per barrel- of cement produced, while the average from
dry process kilns is 46 pounds per barrel produced [Ref. 14]. The
calcining operation is controlled to some degree. Table IV-13
reflects an estimate of the present status of control for the
industry.
~ A barrel of cement equals 376 pounds.
IV-41
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TABLE IV-13. - PRESENT CONTROL STATUS FOR THE CEMENT INDUSTRY
Year of Kiln Installation Geographic Region Control Level
(percent)
Before 1960
•After 1960
Before 1960
After 1960
Outside 298 Areas
Outside 298 Areas
Within 298 Areas
Within 298 Areas
70.
>99
95
>99
Therefore, control costs were estimated on the basis of
increasing the removal efficiencies on those kilns installed before
1960 to the control levels shown in Table IV-14.
TABLE IV-14. - ULTIMATE PARTICULATE REMOVAL EFFICIENCIES REQUIRED
Kiln Capacity
(1000 barrels /day)
1
2
4
6
8
10
Percent Efficiency Required
Wet Process
97.6
98.2
99.3
99.4
99.6
N/A*
Dry Process
97.8
98.4
99.5
99.6
99.8
99.9
Not applicable.
It was assumed that all kilns installed after 1960 were controlled
to the required level. The costs of upgrading existing control
equipment to the required levels are shown in Table IV-15. Existing
control equipment was assumed to be electrostatic precipitators for
wet process kilns and fabric filters for dry process kilns.
IV-42
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TABLE IV-15. - ESTIMATED COSTS OF UPGRADING EXISTING
CONTROL EQUIPMENT
Kiln Capacity
(1000 barrels /day)
1
2
4
6
8
10
Emission Control Costs
($1000)
Wet Process
(high efficiency ESP)
Investment
7.15
14.50
48.90
73.50
111.00
—
Annual
1.72
3.34
11.72
17.70
26.60
—
Dry Process
(fabric filter)
Inves tment
6.33
18.25
79.90
135.00
232.00
354.50
Annual
2.34
6.75
31.10
50.00
85.90
131.40
Each plant in the nation was identified by location, total
capacity, and process type (wet or dry) in a current list from
Rock Products^ [Ref. 26]. Another list from this source identified
all plants installed since 1960 by total capacity, process type,
number and capacity of kilns, and kiln emission control equipment
[Ref. 27]. When a plant in the second list had two or more kilns,
they had the same capacity. These various plant listings provided
the basis for the control cost and emission estimates for the 298
metropolitan areas.
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
This analysis was based on data available from government,
trade, and financial reporting sources. Financial data were
available only for a limited number of firms; thus, the financial
impact of air pollution control costs had to be stated in somewhat
general terms. Many firms engage in other business activities,
such as the sale of readymix concrete or cement blocks, or are
part of conglomerates. Without more detailed information, it has
not been possible to estimate the portion of revenues, costs,
profits, or taxes attributable to cement alone in such firms. For
this and similar reasons, the relationships assumed for the financial
variables may be open to question.
IV-43
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Industry Structure
a. Characteristics of the Firms
The cement industry is estimated to have been represented
by 58 firms and 178 plants in the United States in 1967. Of
these, 50 firms and 138 plants are identified as having been
in the 298 metropolitan areas. The structure of the cement
industry may be described in several ways. Approximately 40
percent of the firms in the industry operate more than one
plant and approximately half of those firms have productive
capacity of over 10,000,000 barrels of cement per year. The
purpose of multiple plant operation is, apparently, to achieve
broader market coverage and, therefore, greater financial
stability by lessening dependence on any one local demand
pattern rather than to achieve significant economies of
scale. The trend in recent years has been to larger kilns,
computerized operation, and improved integration of raw mill,
kiln, clinker grinding, and associated storage and materials
handling equipment. These factors have produced a steady
increase in efficiency of operation but have not necessarily
been accomplished in larger plants. Plants built between
1960 and 1967, for instance, ranged in capacity from 1 to
8.5 million barrels per year. The range of capacities for
all plants listed in operation in 1967 was from 0.4 to
16,000 million barrels per year, with the average plant having
a capacity of approximately 3 million barrels per year '
[Ref. 26].
Since raw materials for cement production are widely
distributed throughout the country, cement plants tend to be
located close to major markets. Normally, cement is not
shipped more than 200 to 300 miles from the plant, because
transportation costs tend to price a firm out of more distant
markets. In recent years, however, some firms have developed
distribution terminals at locations that combine cheap water
transportation with access to major urban markets. Although
these firms have apparently been successful in thus extending
their marketing territory, most firms continue to sell in
IV-44
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relatively small markets. Imports and exports of cement
account for less than 5 percent of the United States market
and are significant only in the markets on the Atlantic Coast.
b. Operating Characteristics
The statistical summary in Chapter 2 gives United States
capacity for the industry as 515 million barrels per year.
The figures given indicate that the industry operated at 72.6
percent of capacity in 1967. In fact, usable capacity was
probably 2-3 million barrels less and utilization slightly
higher. Operation at 85-90 percent of capacity tends to
produce maximum profits, but the industry has tended to
operate at between 70 and 80 percent of capacity over the
past ten years, due to a typical pattern of heavy investment
whenever demand seems to be catching up to supply. Excess
capacity and depressed profits are therefore chronic.
c. Resources
The raw materials used in manufacturing cement are
abundant and widely distributed throughout the country. Most
companies own their sources of supply and have ample reserves,
thereby stabilizing materials costs. The costs of fuel,
transportation, and labor are the other major cost variables.
The rise in these costs in recent years coupled with an
inability to raise prices proportionately accounts for the
generally below average profit performance of this industry.
Large quantities of fuel are used in operating a cement
kiln, a modern installation requiring apprbximately 950,000
B.t.u.'s per barrel of clinker produced. The fuel may be coal,
oil, or natural gas, with gas providing a small cost advan-
tage over the other two at present prices. Many plants burn
coal and this use accounts for approximately 5 percent of
industrial use of bituminous coal in the United States.
Transportation is a major.cost factor as is typical of
all products with a low value-to-bulk ratio. In the past,
cement manufacturers maintained a basing point pricing system
which tended to eliminate price competition due to freight
costs from different mill-to-market distances. Since the
IV-45
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elimination of this system as a result of Federal antitrust
action, individual firms have continued to absorb transpor-
tation costs in varying degrees in order to meet competitors
prices and extend their market range. Under such conditions,
transportation costs tend to place a definite limit on.market
size for each plant.
Labor accounts for approximately 35 percent of total
cost. Rising wages in recent years have contributed to the
adverse profit position of the industry.
6. Market
Portland cement is a standardized product and competition
among sellers depends on quite small price differentials within
a clearly defined price pattern, plus service. Most customers can
choose among a number of cement producers and price shading and
partial freight absorption by the producer may be necessary to
clinch a sale. This competitive pressure tends to hold prices
down and puts considerable emphasis on the firm's ability to
deliver quantities to customers at destinations and on schedules
meeting the customers' preferences. Those firms with newer equip-
ment and most efficient operation may be able to offer marginal
price concessions sufficient to keep sales at levels near optimum
operation. Weaker firms may nbt be able to shade prices in order
to keep sales volume up without reducing profit margins signifi-
cantly. This competitive pressure has caused many firms to close
their less efficient plants or to modernize them with new equip-
ment and computerized controls.
Cement sales are historically closely related to construction
activity, measured by the value of new construction put in place.
It is anticipated, therefore, that the performance of the con-
struction industry will set the general tone of the performance
of the cement industry.
Cement purchases represent about one percent of the inputs
of the construction industry based on the 1963 input/output rela-
tionship. The distribution of cement sales by purchasers for
1963 were:
IV-46
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Ready-mixed concrete producers 61%
Concrete product manufacturers 13%
Highway contractors 10%
Building materials dealers 8%
Other contractors 4%
Miscellaneous users (including government) 4%
Trends
a. Capacity and Production
Over-capacity was a chronic problem in the cement
industry during the early 1960's. It appears that the
industry achieved a somewhat better balance between capacity
and sales in the later 1960's and this is expected to continue
through the 1970's. Capacity is projected to increase at an
average rate of 2 percent per year through 1976. It is anti-
cipated that this capacity will be utilized at close to the
recent average of 78 percent, implying a growth rate of 2
percent for production as well.
It is probable that the present trend toward use of more
economical longer kilns and the addition of computer control
systems will continue. This will lead to the closing of some
older plants and remodeling of others, resulting in only a
very gradual change in the industry structure.
b. Price, Sales and Profits
Prices declined slowly from a 1960 average level of
$3.25 per barrel at the mill to $3.15 per barrel in 1966 but
have risen gradually since then. Less than optimum operating
ratios, a slowly growing market and competition with other
building materials will probably keep prices rising at a
slow rate through 1975. Sales are expected to increase at
an average rate of 3.5 percent per year. Given the 2 percent
per year increase in production indicated above, this would
indicate a price increase of 1 1/2 percent per year. Profits
may be expected to be stable, therefore, at or near their
recent levels and somewhat below the average return for
manufacturing firms.
IV-47
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Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Industry Composite
As was noted in paragraph 2 above, plants built since
1960 have, almost without exception, been equipped with high
efficiency control equipment. It is the older plants, there-
fore, that are a source of particulate emissions and upon
which will fall the new cost of air pollution control. It
is estimated that by 1967 the cement industry had already
undertaken control costs equal to annual costs of $18 million.
b. Impact on Firm
The impact of the additional cost of air pollution
control on the normal cost pattern of a firm can be shown by
considering several "model" plants, constructed to represent
typical operating patterns. The firms described here are not
actual plants, but are based on known conditions in the
industry.
Plant A Plant B
Capacity (Thousands of
Barrels Per Year) 1,200 3,000
Kilns (Number & Size) 1-400 ft. 1-550 ft.
Construction Cost, 1958 $12 mil. $12 mil.
Production, 1967 (Thousands
of Barrels Per Year) 871 2 178
Average Mill Price per Bbl. $3.17 $3.17
Sales $2,761,000 $6,904,000
Net Income Before Tax $ 414,000 $1,156,000
Business Income Tax $ 179,000 $ 500,000
Net Income After Tax $ 235,000 $ 656,000
Profit/Bbl $ 0.2698 $ 0.3011
Annualized Air Pollution
Control Cost, Total:
If wet process $ 90,320 $ 210,800
If dry process $ 78,272 $ 188,680
Annualized Air Pollution
Control Cost, Per Bbl:
If wet process $ 0.1037 $ 0.0968
If dry process $ 0.0899 $ 0.0866
IV-48
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The relationships shown for Plant A and Plant B above
indicate the magnitude of air pollution control costs for a
small and a large plant. There are a large number of single
plant firms in this industry and these figures indicate the
impact which may be expected for such firms.
The costs shown are for firms or plants in the 13 percent
of the industry for which completely new equipment is indicated.
That is, they represent the full cost of air pollution control.
Presumably, 24 percent of the plants in the industry are already
absorbing equivalent costs. It appears that these plants, being
newer, are more efficient in their operation and so able to
sell at a competitive price.
The economies of scale appear to accrue at the plant
level rather than as a result of multiple plant operation.
Multiple plant firms may be approximated by multiplying indi-
vidual plant costs by the number of plants.
c. Demand Elasticity and Cost Shifting
To the extent that the demand for cement is derived
from the demand for public and private construction, which
is not highly elastic with regard to price, the overall
demand for cement would not be very sensitive to small price
changes. However, in recent years cement has had a fairly
advantageous price position relative to competing building
materials. An industry wide increase in price by the full
amount of the control cost indicated for firms that must
install new equipment might be expected to change the position
of cement adversely relative to substitutes.
An attempt by some firms to raise prices as a means o'f
shifting control costs would almost certainly lead other firms
to move into the market. The market for any one firm is
usually small geographically. Selective price increases in
some local markets will encourage large firms to expand their
selling radius.
Under these circumstances, it is to be expected that those
firms faced with the full additional cost of control will
be unable to.shift more than a small fraction of the added
IV-49
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cost into price. Those firms faced with additional but smaller
costs may, to the extent that they are larger and more efficient,
be better able to raise prices, but not enough to recoup the
entire increase in costs.
d. Effect on the Industry
Since it appears that the added cost of air pollution
control will fall on the older, less efficient firms, it is
expected that the result may be a hastening of the trend now
operating in the industry to replace or rebuild older plants.
In no case does it appear that these costs alone will cause a
firm to fail. It is probable, however, that the growth rate
of the industry may be slowed slightly and that profit
margins may continue to be somewhat below the average in
manufacturing through Fiscal Year 1976. Of course, a major
change in demand, such as that resulting from large scale
implementation of "Operation Breakthrough" housing construction
using precast concrete, would stimulate production and make
larger price increases more likely.
Elemental Phosphorus and Phosphate Fertilizer
1. Introduction
a. General
The production of elemental phosphorus and the manu-
facturing of phosphate fertilizer are normally considered to
be two different industries. They are joined in this analysis
because both products are produced from the same raw material
with interrelated processes and air pollution problems. Some
of the firms involved are producers of both products and the
market structures are closely connected. Each industry is
described and analyzed and the economic impact of control
costs is evaluated in terms of the overlapping market and
business structure.
All phosphorus products are derived from phosphate rock.
About 40 million tons of rock were mined in the United States
in 1967. Thirty million tons were processed domestically
with the remainder exported. About 13 percent of the domestic
output appeared as normal superphosphate, 15 percent was
IV-50
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produced as elemental phosphorus, 39 percent was produced as
wet process phosphoric acid, about 3 percent was produced in
the form of animal feed, and the remaining 30 percent of the
rock was treated with wet process phosphoric acid to produce
triple superphosphate.
b. Elemental Phosphorus
Elemental phosphorus is produced in this country by
smelting a mixture of phosphate rock, silica and a carbon-
aceous reducing agent (such as metallurgical coke) in an
electric furnace. Submerged electric arcs in the furnace
produce high temperatures which cause the reduction of the
phosphate rock, releasing phosphorus, carbon monoxide and
other reaction products, including fluorides. These gases
emerge from the furnace and pass through electrostatic pre-
cipitators for the removal of dust. The cleaned furnace gases
then discharge into a condenser, contacting sprays of water
maintained at a temperature above the melting point of phos-
phorus (111°F). Phosphorus is condensed from the gas stream
and collects below a water layer in a pump. The cooled gases,
principally carbon monoxide, are recycled and burned for
heat recovery.
c. Phosphate Fertilizer
The phosphate fertilizer industry as defined for this
report includes all plants which produce wet process acid
(both regular and concentrated), normal superphosphate,
triple superphosphate, and diammonium phosphate. Fertilizer
plants may produce one or all of these.
The most common process for the production of wet
process acid involves the digestion of ground, calcined
phosphate rock with sulfuric acid. The acid is then sepa-
rated from the solids by filtration. Normal superphosphate
is produced as a screened material, either as a continuous
or batch process, by acidulating ground and dried phosphate
rock containing 31 to 35 percent P^ with sulfuric acid.
Triple superphosphate is fertilizer produced by the reaction
of natural phosphates with wet process phosphoric acid. The
IV-51
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product contains 40 percent or more of phosphoric acid.
Ammonium phosphates are now the most popular form of phos-
phate fertilizers because of high nutrient content and low
shipping cost per unit of P2°5' A11 Processes for the manu-
facture of diammonium phosphate fertilizer from wet process
phosphoric acid and ammonia are essentially the same in
principle. Wet process phosphoric acid of about 40-42 percent
P.O equivalent is partially neutralized by anhydrous gaseous
ammonia. The resultant slurry is then fed into an ammoniator-
granulator drum where final ammoniation and granulation take
place simultaneously and additional water is removed. The
moist granules are dried, screened, cooled, and conveyed to
bulk storage.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
Particulate or gaseous fluorides are released in almost all
of the processes used in reducing phosphate rock and manufacturing
products from the rock. Particulates and gaseous fluorides
frequently are emitted.
a. Emissions From Phosphorus Production
There are three main sources of fluoride emissions in
the production of elemental phosphorus: feed preparation,
evolution of gas from the furnace, and evolution of gas from
the molten slag. Fluorides evolved during the furnace
operation are effectively scrubbed in the spray condensers.
Emissions from the preliminary feed preparation and from the
molten slag operation are also controlled to a greater or
less extent in each plant by scrubbing with water. However,
it is estimated that, on the average, these controls achieve
only 85 percent removal efficiency. The remaining uncontrolled
emission rate is 18 pounds of fluoride per ton of phosphorus.
For the phosphorus plants within the 298 metropolitan areas,
this results in estimated 1967 emissions of 2,400 tons of
fluorides.
By applying additional scrubber capacity to the feed
preparation and slag tapping off-gases, the overall control
efficiency for fluoride removal can be increased to 98 per-
cent. By Fiscal Year 1976, without additional scrubber
IV-52
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capacity, emissions within the 298 metropolitan areas would
reach 3,340 tons of fluorides. With the additional controls,
these emissions would be reduced to 334 tons.
Particulate emissions occurring during feed preparation
and charging of the furnace are normally controlled to 80
percent by use of dust collectors. Installation of wet
scrubbers following the dust collectors can achieve a control
level of 99 percent, meeting the standard adopted for this
study.
The emissions of particulates in 1967 are estimated for
plants in the 298 metropolitan areas as 2,400 tons. Growth
of the industry would increase these emissions to 3,340 tons
by FY 1976, which would be reduced to 200 tons of particulates
by installation of controls.
b. Fluorides From Fertilizer Production
In the production of normal superphosphate, there are
potential fluoride emissions from both handling and prepara-
tion of the rock from the acidulation and curing steps. During
rock handling and preparation, fluorides are chemically
bound to the dusts generated. Even during the calcining step,
temperatures are too low to release gaseous fluorides. In
almost every case, dusts are very well controlled, usually
with fabric filters and meet established standards. Duringt
the acidulation and curing steps, gaseous fluorides are emitted.
Current control practice limits these emissions to about one
pound of fluoride per ton of P90,. with various forms of wet
scrubbers. This is approximately a 99 percent control level.
The standards adopted for this analysis, however, require a
final control level of 99.9 percent for production of super-
phosphate. Therefore, additional wet scrubbers, in series,
are required. The same situation occurs in the handling and
processing of rock in the production of wet process phosphoric
acid which require additional controls in the same way. In
addition, gaseous fluorides are evolved in the manufacture
and concentration of phosphoric acid. Excluding the fluorides
emitted from slime ponds, the industry presently controls
IV-53
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fluoride emission from the digesters, vacuum coolers, and
evaporators to a level of about 98 percent, resulting, on the
average, in emissions of 0.2 pounds of fluoride per ton of
P-O,.. Final controls of approximately 99.8 percent are
required to meet the standard for the manufacture and concen-
tration of phosphoric acid; therefore, the installation of
additional wet scrubbers is indicated.
Slime ponds serve phosphoric acid plants as storage and
settling sites for solid and liquid effluents. Fluoride
emissions are produced from these ponds. Emissions from the
ponds are highly variable ranging from 0.08 to 0.80 pounds per
ton of P-,0,1 per day. At present not enough is known of the
factors contributing to the range of emissions to allow rea-
sonable control cost estimates to be made for the ponds.
The concentration of wet phosphoric acid in vacuum
concentrators does not lead to any significant fluoride
emissions due to the automatic absorbtion of these gases in
the process liquids. The emissions of fluoride from the sub-
merged combustion process production of concentrated phos-
phoric acid are also minimal.
In the production of triple superphosphate, emission of
fluoride does occur during the chemical reaction and drying
steps. At the current average industrial control level of
about 99 percent, an estimated 0.16 pounds of fluoride per
ton of P205 are emitted. To meet the standards, a control
level of 99.9 percent will be required. Additional wet
scrubbers are again required to bring the emission level
down to 0.016 pounds per ton of P-,0,..
In the production of diammonium phosphate, fluoride
emissions occur both during chemical reaction and during
drying, although to a lesser extent than from triple super-
phosphate or wet process phosphoric acid. At a current
estimated control level of 96 percent, emissions of about
0.10 pounds of fluoride per ton of P 0 are required. Again,
additional wet scrubbers will be necessary.
IV-54
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Total fluoride emissions in 1967 are estimated to have
amounted to 612 tons for all phosphate fertilizer plants in the
298 metropolitan areas. Industrial growth would increase
these emissions to 1,520 tons by FY 1976 at the same level of
control. Installation of the controls specified for this
analysis would reduce FY 1976 emissions to 134 tons.
In summary, for the phosphate fertilizer industry the
1967 level of fluoride control was approximately 98 percent.
By implementing the controls specified, the industrywide
control level will reach 99.8 percent by Fiscal Year 1976.
c. Control Costs
Total investment in the eight elemental phosphorus
plants located in the 298 metropolitan areas is estimated
at $6,600,000 by Fiscal Year 1976, including allowance for
growth in capacity to that date. With full implementation
of controls by Fiscal Year 1976, total annualized cost to
the segment of this industry effected will be approximately
$3,100,000 per year. Equivalent investment and annualized
cost for fertilizer producers by Fiscal Year 1976 are
$32,100,000 investment and $10,000,000 annually.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
a. Elemental Phosphorus
Costs are available for fluoride emission control systems.
These data are based on scrubbing the fumes from both the feed
preparation and furnace slag tapping areas. The system for
emission control during feed preparation consists of a dust
collector and scrubbers. The fumes from slag tapping are
collected in a hood, diluted with air, and the combined gases
are scrubbed with water in a single scrubber. The scrubbed
gases are exhausted through a fan and discharged through a tall
stack. Water is used as the absorbant and is recirculated through
the scrubber system to produce 15 percent fluorsilic acid.
The cost of the control system for a given plant is related
directly to the gas flow rate through the scrubbers which in turn
is a function of the plant capacity. Table IV-16 indicates the
IV-55
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relationship between plant capacity (in terms of elementary
phosphorus annual tonnages), furnace rating and gas flow rate
through the scrubbers.
TABLE IV-16. - ELEMENTAL PHOSPHORUS CAPACITY,
FURNACE RATING AND GAS FLOW RATE THROUGH SCRUBBERS
Phosphorus
Capacity
(tons per year)
17,000
31,000
43,500
Furnace
Rating
(KW)
25,000
45,000
64,000
Gas Flow Rates (SCFM)
Feed Preparation
30,000
54,000
77,000
Slag Tapping
50,000
58,000
65,000
The installed and annualized costs of control systems
versus plant capacity based on these gas flows is shown in
Figure IV-7. These costs represent an increase in control
efficiency of 95 percent. Installated costs shown in
Figure IV-7 were based on data in Reference 28. Annual
operating and maintenance costs were computed on the basis
of the equation [Ref. 6] G = S [0.7457HK(Z+Qh) + WHL + M];
where: 198°
S = ACFM = 1.3 x SCFM,
H = 7000 hours,
K = 0.008 dollars per kilowatt-hour,
L = 0.50 dollars per gallon of water,
M = 0.06 dollars maintenance cost per ACFM,
Z = 0.015 horsepower input per ACFM to the collector
(fan + pump),
Q = 0.02 gallons of water per ACFM required,
h = 30 feet of head required in water circulation
system,
W = 0.0005 gallons per ACFM make up liquor required.
IV-56
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500
400
§ 300
o
i-
O 200
u
100
INSTALLED COST
ANNUALIZED
10 20 30
FURNACE CAPACITY
1000 Tons/Year
40
50
Fig. IV-7. - Investment and Annualized Costs for Phosphorus Furnaces.
IV-5 7
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b. Phosphate Fertilizer
To develop fluoride control costs for the fertilizer
industry, each of the major production processes was analyzed
separately. These were the production of normal super-
phosphate, diammonium phosphate, and wet process acid. In all
cases, it can be assumed that primary scrubbing systems designed
to remove fluorides existed yielding removal efficiencies of
anywhere from 95 to 98 percent. However, to achieve removal
efficiencies in excess of 99.5 percent, engineering analysis
demonstrated that one or more control systems must be added in
series to the existing equipment. Table IV-17 indicates the
additional control systems required to meet the stringent
removals required.
TABLE IV-17. - CONTROL SYSTEMS REQUIRED
Production Process
Wet Process Acid
Normal Superphosphate
Triple Superphosphate
Ammonium Phosphate
Control Systems Required
Wet Cyclone + Packed
Crossflow Scrubber
Three Stage Cyclonic
Spray Scrubber
Wet Cyclone + Packed
Crossflow Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber - 15
inch w.g.
Control costs were calculated based upon data found in
a draft report of an ongoing APCO study [Ref. 28]. These
costs are shown in Table IV-18 as a function of capacity
expressed in tons per day (tpd) of equivalent P205.
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Producers of elemental phosphorus and of phosphate fertilizer
have been grouped together for this analysis because all phosphorus
producers are also fertilizer producers. The economic impact is,
therefore, not separable. The technical and cost factors, however,
are different for the two product classes and were analyzed and are
reported as separate industries.
IV-58
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TABLE IV-18. - FERTILIZER PRODUCTION CONTROL COSTS
Capacity
(tpd P205
50
100
250
500
1,000
2,000
4,000
Costs
($1,000)
Wet Process Acid
Investment Annual
60 20
90 30
150 60
230 90
450 170
850 350
-
Normal Superphosphate
Investment Annual
120 28
160 40
260 72
-
-
-
-
Triple Superphosphate
Investment Annual
180 50
260 80
460 130
700 200
1,200 340
2,300 6,700
4,800 1,400
Ammonium Phosphate
Investment Annual
18 6
28 10
48 18
70 30
160 62
330 130
660 250
f
Ui
vO
-------
The larger firms in this industry produce many products and
phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer contribute only a small part
of their revenues. It was not possible to determine the role of
these products in the overall product and cost mix of firms for
which data were available. Some small firms apparently produce
only fertilizer, but no published records were available for such
firms. The analysis of economic impact of control costs had to
be based, therefore, upon the general conditions and trends of
the chemical and fertilizer industries. It does not appear that
more detailed data would cause a change in the major conclusions
reached in this report.
5. Industry Structure
Production of elemental phosphorus is concentrated in six
private firms, with the Tennessee Valley Authority also a significant
producer (approximately six percent of industry capacity). One
chemical firm accounts for 35 percent of the industry and the
three largest firms have 75 percent of productive capacity. Each
of the producers of elemental phosphorus is also a producer of
phosphoric acid and one or more of the types of finished fertilizer.
All but two of them sell phosphate rock to other users. A small
number of firms produce phosphate rock for sale to other users,
but do not produce phosphorus products themselves. There are 80
firms, in addition to the producers of elemental phosphorus, that
are producers of phosphate fertilizers, 56 of them producing normal
superphosphate, 18 producing triple superphosphate, and 44
producing ammonium phosphates. The production of phosphate ferti-
lizers is not characterized by dominance of one or two firms,
although there are very great variations in firm size ranging from
single-plant firms of 15,000-20,000 tons annual capacity to firms
with more than 20 plants and capacity in excess of 125,000 tons
per year.
Given the present pattern of industrial uses of elemental
phosphorus, sales of this product appear to be stable and to
provide an adequate profit to the firms producing it. Phosphate
fertilizer, on the other hand, has been characterized by below
average returns on investment during the past decade and has
suffered from chronic over-capacity. It has attracted investment
from a number of chemical and petroleum firms that had hoped
IV-60
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fertilizer would provide a profitable outlet for materials such
as sulfuric acid and at the same time provide diversification into
the agricultural sector of the economy. A number of farm cooper-
atives also undertook phosphate fertilizer production in order to
provide a stable and economic supply of one of the ingredients of
the dry-mixed fertilizer they offer farmers. These farm cooperatives
had rather mixed success and have not always been a stabilizing
influence in the industry.
Some rationalization of the industry appears to have begun in
the last year or two. Shifting demand from normal superphosphate
to triple superphosphate and diammonium phosphate have induced
shutdowns of some of the older normal superphosphate capacity and
some smaller companies have sold out to other firms or left the
industry. Also, more emphasis is being given to marketing and to
solving chronic problems of storage, transportation, and distribution.
Further statistics for the two industries are shown in Tables IV-19
and IV-20.
TABLE IV-19. - 1967 STATISTICAL DATA ON THE ELEMENTAL
PHOSPHORUS INDUSTRY
United States Metropolitan Areas
Number of Plants 13 8
Capacity (Thousands
of Tons) 658 290
Production (Thousands
of Tons) 587 279
Value of Shipments
(Millions of
Dollars) 200 140
IV-61
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TABLE IV-20. - 1967 STATISTICAL DATA ON THE PHOSPHATE
FERTILIZER INDUSTRY
United States
Number of Plants
Capacity
Wet Process Acid (1,000 Tons P,^
ORTHO
SUPER
Ammonium Phosphate (1,000 Tons
Gross Weight)
Normal Superphosphate (1,000 Tons
Gross Weight)
Triple Superphosphate (1,000 Tons
Gross Weight)
Production
Fertilizer (Thousands of Tons)
Phosphoric Acid (Thousands of
Tons)
Value of Shipments (Millions of
Dollars)
Fertilizer
Phosphoric Acid
179
5,860
316
7,430
4,690
3,640
4,700
5,190
976
565
Metropolitan Areas
147
4,830
149
6,430
3,840
3,460
4,100
4,200
854
455
6. Market and Trends
Approximately 85 percent of the production of elemental
phosphorus is sold to industry for a wide variety of uses. Almost
75 percent of phosphate output is used for fertilizer and approxi-
mately 20 percent goes to industrial purchasers. Fertilizer pro-
duction, therefore, is dominant in this industry. However, indus-
trial uses are increasingly important, as is shown by the fact that
production of phosphate rock has more than doubled during the
1960*s while fertilizer production, although showing a steady
growth, increased only by approximately 20 percent. Until 1950,
normal superphosphate was almost the exclusive source of phosphate
in fertilizer. Its use, however, has declined over the years and
amounts to only about 20 percent of the total phosphate market
today.
IV-62
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The fertilizer market is quite competitive. Marketing is
done by major producers serving national or regional markets, by
retailers of farm and garden supplies, and by producers of mixed
fertilizers who buy their ingredients from primary producers.
Increasingly knowledgeable farmers operating large-scale farms
have increased market influence and demand fertilizers that have
analyses tailored to their individual needs. This competition
tends to hold prices close to the minimum necessary to maintain
adequate supplies. It also has meant that buyers of substantial
quantities can negotiate significant discounts from list prices.
Average prices climbed slowly during the 1960's, but dropped
in the last two years of the decade. It is expected that they
will resume their upward trend in the 1970's, rising much more
slowly than other industrial prices. Prices tend to be markedly
higher in the Midwest than on the East Coast, primarily because
of added transportation costs. This has led to extensive use of
triple superphosphate and diammonium phosphate in most of the
major farm areas, since these contain two to three times as much
plant nutrients per ton as normal superphosphate and therefore
incur lower transportation costs per unit of value. The difference
is shown by comparison of the cost to the average farmer in terms
of nutrients applied to the soil. Government studies have shown
[Ref. 29] that a ton of P-jO,- costs a farmer, on the average in
£• J
1969, $163 as triple superphosphate, $216 as normal superphosphate,
and only $149 as ammonium phosphate [Ref. 29]. Cost of production
at the plant is somewhat lower for the newer triple superphosphate
and diammonium phosphate processes, but not as much as this
differential of applied cost. The greater share of the differences
appears to result from economies in shipping the more concentrated
fertilizers.
7. Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Cost Factors
The value of investment required to achieve the desired
emission control level for plants producing elemental phos-
phorus varies in relation to the capacity of each plant. It
is estimated that the average investment per plant subject
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to these standards in the 298 metropolitan areas in 1967
would be $585,000. The annualized cost in 1967, including
depreciation, finance, and operating charges would average
$271,000 per plant in the metropolitan areas, or approxi-
mately $7.80 per ton of phosphorus produced.
Investment requirements and annual costs for fertilizer
plants vary in relation not only to capacity but also to
the type of product produced. The average investment
in 1967 for all plants in the metropolitan areas is estimated
at just under $150,000 each, and total annual costs, including
the annualized investment, average approximately $47,000 per
plant. The effect of varying investment and operating expenses
in 1967 may be shown by comparing the range of annual cost for
each production process. Annual costs per plant for production
of normal superphosphate range from $18,000 per year at 12
tons per day capacity to $440,000 per year at 1,540 tons per
day. For triple superphosphate producers, the annual cost
per plant range is from $52,000 per year at 50 tons per day
capacity to $2,000,000 per year at 10,000 tons per day capacity.
Ammonium phosphate plants show annual costs from $6,000 per
year at 50 tons per day capacity to $375,000 per year at
6,000 tons per day capacity. Finally, annual costs for
phosphoric acid plants are estimated to range from $13,000
per year at 25 tons per day capacity to $170,000 per year
at 1,000 tons per day capacity.
b. Industry Impact
It is estimated that an annual cost of $2,180,000 will
be required to control facilities in operation in 1967. This
will be equal to approximately $7.80 per ton of production.
This is approximately two percent of the f.o.b. selling price.
The annual cost estimate of $6,910,000 for control of ferti-
lizer plants, figured on the same basis, averages approximately
$1.70 per ton produced, or just over one percent of producers
price. This control cost reflects, insofar as possible, the
annual cost of controlling phosphoric acid production which
IV-64
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enters into fertilizer manufacture. By Fiscal Year 1976 it
is estimated that the investment requirement and annual cost
for emission controls for the elemental phosphorus industry
located in the 298 metropolitan areas would be $6.6 million
and $3.1 million. For the phosphate fertilizer industry, the
investment requirement and annual cost are estimated at $32.0
million and $10.0 million.
Data were not available to determine the share of revenue
and profit attributable to phosphorus production in the seven
firms in that market, or the role of fertilizer in the total
operations of these fertilizer manufacturers for which financial
information was known. It is believed that in most of the
industrial processes using phosphorus or phosphoric acid,
these inputs would be quite small relative to the total material
cost. With only seven firms to buy from, and with all of
them affected to some extent by the required control cost, it
is expected that buyers would have to accept price increases
sufficient to cover the producers' costs. Since only 44
percent of the United States production would be affected
by increased control cost, prices might rise by approximately
one percent, or $3.90 per ton. Sales of elemental phosphorus
or phosphoric acid for industrial use would probably not be
reduced by a price change of this magnitude.
The average annual control cost per ton of fertilizer
produced is approximately $1.70. Annual control cost for
producers of ammonium phosphate is estimated to be appro-
ximately half the average, while annual control cost for
triple superphosphate is somewhat above the average.
Since most producers are affected by the increased cost
and since there is no known substitute for phosphate fertilizer,
virtually all of the increased cost may be expected to be
reflected in price. However, the trend of substitution of
high analysis triple superphosphate and diammonium phosphate
for normal superphosphate may be accelerated. Delivered
price on the farm of P205 may be expected to increase by
approximately the same amount whether in the form of normal
or triple superphosphate. This would maintain the value
IV-65
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advantage of the concentrated superphosphate. Ammonium phos-
phate may be expected to increase in price by only half the
increase in the other types. The average price increase for
all forms combined may, therefore, be in the range of $0.70
to $1.00 per ton, depending on the eventual product mix of
the industry.
For producers, this seems to indicate a hastening decline
in production of normal superphosphate. Since much, of the
capacity for producing normal superphosphate is older than
that used for the other types and may already be obsolete,
producers may choose to replace it rather than invest in
control equipment. Some small fertilizer producers make
only normal superphosphate. The number of these firms was
not determined for this study. Some of these firms may be
forced to close as return on investment falls below the al-
ready poor rate normal to the industry.
Grain Milling and Handling
1. Introduction
Commercial grain mills process grain into flour, livestock
feeds, cereals, corn syrup, and various bread and pastry mixes.
Because of limited data, this study focuses on those establish-
ments primarily engaged in manufacturing prepared feeds for
livestock. Manufacture of certain feed ingredients and adjuncts,
such as alfalfa meal, feed supplements, and feed concentrates is
also included in these establishments. The main grain handling
operations are performed at terminal and country elevators which
provide storage space and serve as collection and transfer points.
Terminal elevators serve as storage and distribution points and
store larger quantities over a longer period of time. Country
elevators are scattered over the countryside and average storage
time is less than for terminal elevators. The two types of activ-
ities involved at both types of elevators are: (1) intermittent
operations such as unloading and drying and (2) continuous opera-
tions such as bin aeration or turning, cleaning, and loading.
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For simplicity, grain handling is assumed to proceed through
the'following steps: (1) after harvesting, the grain is taken
to a country elevator; (2) there it is unloaded, weighed, and
stored for varying periods; (3) it is then loaded into a type of
conveyance and taken to a terminal elevator; and (4) it is unloaded,
weighed again, given a preliminary cleaning, and again stored.
Terminal elevators are usually operated continuously, whereas
country elevators are not. Certain country elevator operations,
such as loading and drying, involve 2,000 hours per year or less.
Other operations such as turning and loading are continuous in
most cases.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
The principal type of pollutant emitted during animal feed
milling and grain handling operations is particulates. Dusts,
resulting primarily from mechanical abrasion of individual grains,
are generated in both the milling operations in grain mills and
the handling and cleaning processes of the elevators. Terminal
elevators contribute the vast majority of the particulate emissions
from the grain milling and handling industry. Although country
elevators are of a smaller scale, most of them perform basically
the same operations as the terminal elevators; therefore, country
elevators, as well as terminal elevators, require particulate
controls designed for maximum materials handling capacity.
Particulate emissions from elevators in the 298 metropolitan
areas are estimated to equal 1,400,000 tons in 1967. With industry
growth, these would increase to 1,730,000 tons by Fiscal Year 1976
if the 1967 control level of 35 percent was maintained. Installation
of controls, yielding a control level of 99 percent, would reduce
emissions to 26,100 tons in Fiscal Year 1976. Similarly, feed mill
particulate emissions are estimated as 274,000 tons in 1967 and
would grow to 347,000 tons by 1976 if the 1967 control level of 35
percent was maintained. With controls increased to 99 percent, 1976
emissions would be reduced to 5,410 tons.
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Control of dust emitted from livestock feed milling and
grain handling to a required level of 99 percent can be accom-
plished with fabric filters. At present, only about 50 percent
of terminal elevators and animal feed mills are assumed to be
equipped with cyclones which remove only 70 percent of the dust
conveyed to them [Ref. 30]. Costs are calculated on the basis of
installing fabric filters at all mills and elevators.
With the implementation of these controls by Fiscal Year 1976
in the 298 metropolitan areas, it is estimated that the investment
requirement for the grain handling and the animal feed milling
industry will be $436 million and $27 million, respectively. The
annual costs will amount to approximately $153 million and $11
million, respectively, for each segment of the industry.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
Grain elevators are currently classified by an employment
size category index ranging from one to ten. The corresponding
capacity in thousands of bushels is shown in Table IV-21.
TABLE IV-21. - EMPLOYMENT SIZE INDEX VS CAPACITY
Employment Size
Category
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Average Capacity
(1,000 bushels)
12.5
50
100
200
375
750
1,750
3,500
7,500
15,000
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For the purpose of analysis, country elevators are considered
to be of employment size category five or less; terminal elevators
therefore are from employment size categories six through ten.
At country elevators only unloading, weighing and loading was
assumed to occur. At terminal elevators, the following unit oper-
ations were assumed to occur: unloading, weighing, transferring,
drying, cleaning, and loading. On the basis of these unit operations,
data [Ref. 31]. These are shown in Table IV-22 below.
TABLE IV-22. - ELEVATOR EMISSION FACTORS
Elevator Type
Country
Terminal
Emission Factor
(pounds/year/1,000 bushels
capacity)
250
1,600
These were based on terminal elevators operating 8,000 hours per
year and country elevators operating at 3,000 hours per year.
Control costs were based upon installing a single baghouse
system to control all unit operations. On the basis of present
information [Ref. 32], a total flow rate of 90 ACFM per bushel
per hour was utilized. On the basis of this factor and an
estimated fabric filter installed cost factor of $3 per SCFM
[Ref. 32], investment requirements were calculated. Total annual
costs were estimated as 0.35 times the investment required.
Table IV-23 presents the investment and annual costs as a func-
tion of employment size category.
Animal feed mill unit processes include unloading, screening
and cleaning, drying and processing (milling). Based upon
available data [Ref. 31] an overall emission factor of 18 pounds
per ton of product was utilized. Fabric filter costs were
calculated on the basis of 1.38 ACFM per hundred weight (cwt)
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TABLE IV-23. - GRAIN ELEVATOR CONTROL COSTS
Size Category
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Installed Cost
($1,000)
2.70
5.40
12.40
22.50
52.00
84.00
195.00
420.00
840.00
1,110.00
Total Annual Cost
($1,000)
1.00
1.89
4.34
7.88
18.20
29.40
68.20
147.00
294.00
383.00
production per day [Ref. 32]. Using the $3 per scfm Installed cost
factor and the 0.35 annual cost factor described above, the control
cost - process size (in terms of tons per day) relationships shown
in Table IV-24 were developed.
TABLE IV-24. - ANIMAL FEED MILL CONTROL COSTS
Nominal Mill Capacity
(tons /day)
10.3
35.8
71.8
154
615
1,538
2,563
Installed Cost
($1,000)
10.00
10.00
10.00
13.00
33.00
84.00
144.00
Annual Cost
($1,000)
3.50
3.50
3.50
4.55
11.50
29.20
50.50
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4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Only limited data on the operation of grain elevators and feed
mills were available for this analysis. So as not to understate
the problem, the estimates made of dust emissions and the control
cost of reducing them to acceptable levels are considered high.
These estimates should be interpreted as indicating a level that
probably would not be exceeded and as an indication of the order
of magnitude of the problem and the controls required.
Although the distribution of elevators and feed mills by
location and size was known, data were not available showing
similar information by firm. Some of the largest firms in this
industry are well known publicly held corporations, but the
business structure, pattern of operations and sales, and financial
position of constituent firms were not available. The economic
analysis included in this report is, therefore, necessarily limited
to the general market impact of control costs.
5. Industry Structure
In 1967, there were 4,098 grain elevators in the 298 metropoli-
tan areas with a storage capacity of 3.48 billion bushels and a
throughput capability of an estimated 9.76 billion bushels. Of this
number of grain elevators, 2,898 (71 percent) had a capacity of less
than 500,000 bushels and, in most cases, would be classified as
country elevators. The remaining 1,200 elevators (29 percent) are
classified as terminals and provide approximately 83 percent of the
storage capacity and throughput capability. These large elevators
include those located at major milling plants and terminals and are
normally a part of large corporate producers of livestock and
poultry food, or a part of large scale shippers, in addition to
large elevator operators. Many small elevator operators also do
feed milling and mixing of custom feeds.
Feed mills in the 298 metropolitan areas in 1967 numbered
2,155. The capacity, production and value of shipments for these
mills are estimated at 55.5 million bushels, 46.2 million bushels
and $3.8 billion. Seventy percent of these feed mills have fewer
than 20 employees.
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Both the milling and handling sectors of the industry, therefore,
are characterized by a wide range of production capacities and con-
siderable variation of operating patterns. A relatively small number
of large nationally known firms operate a substantial share of the
productive capacity, but there are also a very large number of indepen-
dent small- and medium-sized producers, providing a highly competitive
market.
6. Market and Trends
The market for grain tends to be dominated by the demand derived
from consumption of the final products made from it, with govern-
ment price support and production controls setting a lower limit on
prices. Grain handling costs make a relatively small contribution
to the delivered cost of grain and, since these functions are
essential and unavoidable to the rest of the industry, it would
appear that demand for handling services would show little sensi-
tivity to price. Similarly, demand for livestock and poultry feeds
is relatively inelastic with regard to price. However, large
segments of the market, such as feedlot operators, may choose to
reduce the amount of feed used when a rise in feed prices does not
coincide with an increase in the market price of meats. The price
elasticity of demand for livestock and poultry feed, therefore,
depends upon price trends and price elasticity of the demand for
meat and makes it more difficult for feed mill operators than for
elevator operators to shift increased cost to the buyer.
7. Economic Impact of Control Costs
The cost of installing fabric filters on elevators was based
upon the distribution of plants by capacity. It was assumed that
the elevators with less than 500,000 bushels capacity had no
effective control in 1967. It was estimated that the required
investment for these elevators would average approximately $9,000
each. The average investment would be considerably higher for
large terminal elevators as a result of their larger volume of
grain handling and since it was assumed that most of the grain
cleaning and drying is done there. Average investment for elevators
over 500,000 bushels capacity is estimated at $77,700. Total
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investment for control of the elevators in the 298 metropolitan areas
is estimated as $436 million through Fiscal Year 1976, including
investment for elevators built after 1967.
The investment required for fabric filters to control emissions
from feed mills was estimated in relation to the normal daily produc-
tion and ranged from $10,000 for 10 to 100 tons per day and up to
$144,000 at 2,500 tons per day. Mills with less than 100 tons per
day production predominate in the industry to such an extent that
the average investment per mill is only slightly over $10,000. Total
investment for all feed mills, including capacity constructed after
1967, is estimated to reach $27.4 million through Fiscal Year 1976.
Annualized control costs (operating expense plus depreciation
and finance cost) show a similar pattern. Country elevator annual
cost averages just under $10,000 per year and terminal elevators
average approximately $78,000 per year. Total annual costs for all
elevators in the 298 metropolitan areas are estimated as $153 million
by Fiscal Year 1976. Annual cost for an average feed mill is esti-
mated to be $4,000 per year and the total for all feed mills would
approximate $11 million by Fiscal Year 1976.
The annual cost of controlling elevator emissions is equal to
$0.0127 per bushel of grain estimated to be handled in 1976 and the
annual cost per ton of feed production in 1976 is estimated as $0.187.
In view of the relative insensitivity of demand for grain and feed to
price changes suggested in paragraph 6, above, it appears that these
costs will be largely reflected in prices. It is unlikely that an
added cost of one cent per bushel for grains priced from $0.70 to
$1.70 per bushel will change the market significantly. Similarly,
no market effect is expected from an additional cost of 19 cents per
ton when added to feed averaging in the vicinity of $85 per ton.
Expressed another way, these costs of control will add approximately
$164 million to the nation's annual food bill by Fiscal Year 1976 or
perhaps $0.75 per person.
IV-7 3
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G. Gray Iron Foundries
1. Introduction
Gray iron foundries produce castings, such as machine and
automobile parts, from gray iron, pig and scrap. To melt iron
for casting, the industry utilizes three types of furnaces:
electric arc, electric induction, and cupola furnaces. The electric
arc and electric induction furnaces, which together account for only
seven percent of all castings, emit relatively small quantities of
pollutants and were not included in the analysis. This report focuses
on control of pollutants from cupola furnaces.
Cupolas are vertical cylindrical furnaces in which the heat for
melting is provided by burning coke in direct contact with the metal
charge. Most foundry emissions emanate from this metal-melting opera-
tion.
2. Emissions and Costs of Controls
Carbon monoxide and particulates in the form of dust and smoke
are the significant emissions from cupolas. Particulates arise from
fines in the coke and flux charge, from metal fuming, and from dirt
and grease introduced with the scrap.
In 1967, it is estimated that the industry averaged about 18
percent control of carbon monoxide and 12 percent of particulates.
Emissions within the 298 metropolitan areas amounted to 2,220 thousand
tons and 166 thousand tons, respectively. With industry growth, these
emissions would increase to 3,420 thousand tons and 255 thousand tons,
respectively, in Fiscal Year 1976. Implementation of controls would
result in 209 thousand tons of carbon monoxide and 29.1 thousand tons
of particulates in Fiscal Year 1976.
Carbon monoxide emissions can be reduced by the use of afterburners
which oxidize carbon monoxide to carbon dioxide. Afterburners in combina-
tion with gas-cleaning equipment, such as wet scrubbers or fabric filters,
can reduce emission levels of carbon monoxide and particulates from
cupolas to achieve compliance with stringent process weight regulations
for particulates and a 95-percent removal rate for carbon monoxide.
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Of the control equipment presently capable of particulate
removals in excess of 90 percent, only high-energy wet scrubbers
have been used on cupolas without difficulty. Several foundries,
especially in the Los Angeles area, are using fabric filter bag-
houses with some degree of success. Fabric filter systems, when
successful, require afterburners, gas-cooling equipment, high-temper-
ature filtration material, and decreased filtration velocities. In
general, maintenance costs of fabric filters are high and the costs
of using them is greater than for wet scrubbers.
The total investment required to meet the standards by Fiscal
Year 1976 would be $317.3 million. The corresponding annual cost
would be $108.2 million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
To date, the foundry industry has been a consistent user of
high efficiency control equipment on its numerous in—plant dust
problems in sand preparation, shakeout, abrasive cleaning and
grinding operations. However, equipment to control the fume-laden
gases from the melting operation has been installed in only a few
locations.
Data on the present levels of control for particulates and
carbon monoxide were obtained from a joint APCO- Department of
Commerce survey. From these data, regional control level estimates
on a cupola by cupola bases were made. Nationally, the overall
control levels for particulates and carbon monoxide are 12 and 18
percent, respectively.
Two bodies of data were available to estimate costs of control-
ling emissions from cupolas in gray iron foundries. Data describing
features of all gray iron foundries that operate cupolas were ob-
tained by the Department of Commerce during 1968 via a mail survey.
The information gave the location of all plants and the number of
cupolas and some facts on emission controls presently installed for
most plants. Cupola capacity ratings were not reported.
A representative sample of 67 foundries with cupolas was visited
by APCO personnel to obtain extensive data on control systems. The
collected data included information about investment and annual
IV-75
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costs. From the sample survey, information on the sizes of cupolas
in each plant was used to derive a distribution by size for the
total industry. Data from the sample survey were also subjected to
statistical analyses to relate costs to cupola control factors.
Venturi scrubbers were selected as the particulate control device.
For venturi scrubbers, costs were a function of two factors, gas
volume and pressure drop. Sample data were also used to estimate
gas volume as a function of melt rate. Investment and annual costs
for venturi scrubbers are given in Table IV-25. Afterburners were
selected as the control device for carbon monoxide. However, the
data from the survey, as presented in the table, does include costs
of installing and operating afterburners. Therefore, separate cost
estimates were not made. By using these cost estimates and the
distribution of cupolas, an average cost per control system was
estimated.
TABLE IV-25. - CUPOLA EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Cupola Size
(tons /hour)
2.5
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
37.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
Number of
Cupolas
232
323
279
211
139
20
0
0
48
29
Control Costs
($1000)
Investment
103.5
179.0
246.7
318.4
386.2
457.8
529.4
604.9
678.1
752.0
Annual
31.2
54.0
74.5
96.1
116.6
138.2
159.8
182.6
204.7
227.0
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When a foundry operates two cupolas of approximately the same
capacities one emission control system is used for the pair. It was
assumed that, where possible, one system would serve two cupolas.
The data on foundries in each area were screened, taking into account
cupolas that could be paired, to determine the number of systems
required. These estimates and the estimate of average control sys-
tem costs were then used to calculate an estimate of the investment
cost for each area.
Annual costs were estimated by multiplying the investment cost
by 0.302. This factor was determined by statistical analysis of
survey data and the estimates allow, in accordance with industry
practice, about 18 percent for depreciation and other capital-
related charges. Annual depreciation and capital costs for other
sources in this study, except solid waste disposal, allow 20 percent.
In those cases of foundries reporting installed control systems,
it was assumed that presently installed mechanical collectors would
be replaced by venturi scrubbers but that fabric filters, wet
scrubbers, and the one reported electrostatic precipitator would be
adequate. No credit was allowed in the cost estimates for the value
of mechanical collectors that would be replaced.
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
This report is limited to control of the melting operations.
Nonmelting operations within foundries are consistently controlled
with high efficiency control equipment and are not included in the
analysis.
The analysis of economic impact is limited to jobbing foundries,
since the financial structure of captive foundries is indistinguishable
from that of their parent company. Impact on a captive foundry cannot
therefore be determined and its control costs are passed on directly
to the final product of the parent company.
5. Industry Structure
The gray iron foundry industry consists of 1,446 plants that are
located in the United States, of which 77 percent (1,115) are located
within the 298 metropolitan areas. United States capacity for the
industry in 1967 was 17 million tons of castings per year. In the 298
metropolitan areas, capacity amounted to 14 million tons of castings
IV-7 7
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per year. Production was 14.3 million tons per year for the United
States and 11.8 million tons per year for the 298 metropolitan areas
or about 83 percent of the United States production.
Numerically, the gray iron foundry industry consists predominantly
of small establishments. Yet production is dominated by a few large
firms. The four largest companies accounted for approximately 27
percent of the industry's value of shipments in 1967, while the eight
largest accounted for 37 percent.
There is a definite trend in the foundry industry toward fewer
but larger firms. From 1959 to 1967, the total number of foundries
in the U. S. declined by almost 200, although the number of large
foundries increased.
Many of the largest firms are "production foundries," which
have the capability of economically producing large lots of closely
related castings. Most of the output of these "production foundries"
is captive (owned and controlled by other businesses). In fact, almost
half of all gray iron production comes from captive plants which do not
generally produce for the highly competitive open market.
Gray iron foundries range from primitive, unmechanized hand opera-
tions to heavily equipped plants in which operators are assisted by
electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic equipment. Captive plants are
more likely to be mechanized and better equipped with emission control
equipment than are noncaptive plants.
The nature of the gray iron foundry industry is such that foundries
can be found in almost all urban areas. The economies of scale for the
industry do not prohibit the continued existence of relatively small
foundries. Since many foundries are operated in conjunction with
steel-making facilities, they are concentrated in the "steel" states:
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Alabama.
6. Market
a. Competition Among Sellers
The gray iron foundry industry is characterized by intense
competition among the many small jobbing foundries. This fierce
price competition has spurred a drive for lower operating costs
and higher productivity gains. Casting quality along with
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engineering design services available to the customers are other
areas of increasing competition. Unfortunately, many foundries
have had insufficient capital or resources to invest in cost-saving
and quality improvement facilities rather than straight additional
capacity. Larger foundries have a competitive advantage in that
they usually can offer the services of better sales engineering
staffs, are more mechanized, and have more sophisticated quality
control equipment.
The net effect is that many small foundries that cannot
cope with increasing needs for capital, demands for better quality
and service, and rising labor costs are being forced out of busi-
ness. The larger and more stable firms are, in contrast, increasing
their capacities in order to reduce unit costs and absorb the
additional demand. Also, an increasing number of large purchasers
of castings are establishing captive foundries in order to gain
a ready supply of quality castings. However, these additions to
capacity have been unable to keep pace with the expansion of
demand and the loss of capacity of closed foundries. As a result
users are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain an adequate
supply of specialty iron castings.
b. Customer Industries
The major customers of the gray iron foundry industry are
also major constituents of the national economy. The health of
the industry is therefore closely related to the health of the
gross national product (GNP). The major industrial markets for
foundry castings include motor vehicles, farm machinery, and
the industries that build equipment for the construction, mining,
oil, metalworking, railroad and general industry markets.
These industries are considerably larger and more powerful
than the gray iron foundry industry. The individual customer
firms have many times the assets of the foundries from which
they buy. With their financial strength and generally greater
management expertise, such firms are able to play the many small
foundries against each other to maintain severe price competition
even under conditions of high demand for castings.
IV-79
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c. Foreign Competition
Direct imports of castings as well as the castings in
imported machine tools, autos, textile machinery, and internal
diesel engine parts do enter the American market. However,
Department of Commerce statistics indicate a volume of only
$2.25 million for direct imports in 1967. This is estimated
by the industry to be approximately one-quarter of the actual
total. Even if a total import volume of $9 million is assumed,
imported castings and component castings are equivalent to less
than one percent of the $2.7 billion value of shipments in the
U. S. that same year.
Imports, therefore, do not constitute a major threat to the
American gray iron casting market. The high cost per ton of
shipping compared to the relatively low cost per ton of produc-
tion is probably the most significant barrier to imports.
7,. Trends
The foundry industry expects its market to continue to grow at
the average historical growth rate of its customer industries. This
rate is expected to average six to seven percent per year through 1980
but may be somewhat less for the period of 1970 to Fiscal Year 1976.
By 1975, total foundry production volume will have to increase by
52.9 percent over 1969 just to keep up with demand. For 1980, the
projected increase is 90.2 percent over 1969 volume.
During the period from 1958 to 1967, the price of gray Iron
castings rose steadily at a rate of 2 percent per year. At the same
time, the prices of the two major raw materials, pig iron and scrap
iron, have fallen at an annual rate of 2.3 percent. However, while
material costs have declined, labor costs have advanced more rapidly
than the price of castings, keeping continued upward pressure on price.
8. Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Control System Costs
Full implementation of controls on all facilities which
existed in 1967 would yield a total annual cost of $69.4 million
and in Fiscal Year 1976 the total annual cost would be about $108.2
million. As production volume within the 298 metropolitan areas
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was 11.8 million tons in 1967 and is estimated to be 18.0 million
tons in Fiscal Year 1976, the average cost of control per ton
would be $5.88 and $6.01, respectively.
No valuable materials, which could serve to compensate for
control costs, are recoverable from foundry emissions.
Currently, air pollution control increases the cost of
castings for large foundries by about 0.7 percent. With small
single cupola foundries, added cost averages about 3 percent
of the production cost. These added costs compare to average
profit rates before tax of 6.8 percent for large foundries and
5.8 percent for small foundries. To small foundries, control
costs represent a reduction in profit margins of over 50 per-
cent, while margins for larger firms would be reduced only 11
percent if costs could not be passed on to customers. Invest-
ment in air pollution control equipment would equal approximately
5 percent of the value of capital for the largest firms and as
much as 25 percent for the smallest firms. The evidence of these
indicators suggests that the impact of pollution control is much
greater on the small jobbing firms under a million dollars in
value of shipments than on those with greater shipments. The
industry generally can little afford a reduction in profit rate,
as its rate of 6.8 percent return on investment is already below
the all-manufacturing average of 8.1 percent.
The large investment in pollution control equipment, relative
to the book value and profitablity of many foundries, presents a
serious problem of financing the investment. The foundry industry
generally is not an attractive investment in stock or bond markets
due to its low rate of return and slow profit growth. Neither is
it a good risk for commercial banks due to the high ratio of con-
trol investment to book value of many small foundries and the
unpfofitability of the control investment. The Small Business
Administration is currently the only source of funds available
to many foundries. The SBA prefers to guarantee loans made by
banks but will pay out funds directly in some cases.
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b. Impact on the Industry
The economic impact of pollution control costs on an industry
varies with the industry's ability to pass cost on to the consumer
in the form of higher prices. This ability is largely dependent
upon elasticity of demand for the product, the degree to which
the volume of sales declines in response to price increases.
Demand for castings is relatively inelastic, since most castings
are inputs for the production of more complex final products and
constitute a small portion of the cost of the final product.
Also, possible substitute products, such as aluminum, steel,
and other metals, are somewhat more costly than gray iron and are
usually subject to the same upward price pressures such as rising
labor costs and pollution control costs. Thus, a small price
increase due to pollution control will have little effect on the
market for gray iron.
Despite inelastic demand, sharp competition among the many
jobbing foundries will make price adjustments for control cost
difficult for those foundries that experience higher than average
costs. Large mechanized firms and those smaller firms that are
located outside of the 298 metropolitan areas will incur lower
control costs than will other foundries. These lower cost foundries
will establish price levels that prevent the less efficient firms
from raising prices sufficiently to cover their control costs. The
average price of castings is expected to increase by about two
percent in response to stringent air pollution control regulations.
Such a price increase would leave approximately one-third of the
firms in the industry with reduced profit margins. These firms
would be forced into marginal or sub-marginal financial positions.
The nonuniformity of control regulations and costs, along
with the lack of investment capital, will force most foundries
to postpone implementation of control for as long as possible.
Many firms, faced with reduced profit margins and an inability
to raise capital for pollution control will be forced to merge
or go out of business. Some remaining firms will continue to
operate at reduced profit rates. However, the larger, more
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stable foundries will increase their capacity to meet expand-
ing demand, improve efficiency and continue to operate at
reduced profit rates. In effect, pollution control will accel-
erate the trend toward fewer and larger foundries. It is
apparent that the gray iron foundry industry will be among
those industries most severely affected by air pollution control.
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H. Iron and Steel
1. Introduction
The iron and steel industry includes plants ranging from inte-
grated steel making operations (blast furnaces, steel making furnaces,
coke ovens, sintering plants, scarfing machines, rolling mills, etc.)
to much smaller operations with a few steel making furnaces producing
small quantities of specialty steels. The first step in the conver-
sion of iron ore into steel takes place in the blast furnace. The
blast furnace produces a material commonly referred to as pig iron.
Steel making furnaces refine the pig iron and/or steel scrap into
steel. Three types of steel making furnaces are in common use; these
are the open hearth furnace, the basic oxygen furnace and the electric
steel making furnace. Sintering plants are designed to convert iron
ore fines into a product more acceptable for charging into the blast
furnaces. Scarfing is an operation which removes surface defects
from steel. Coking is an operation in which bituminous coal is
converted into coke, the chief fuel used in blast furnaces. Blast
furnaces are always well controlled to prevent the emissions of
particulates; while the gaseous emissions are fully utilized in
the production of process heat. At present, very little is known
about the emissions or present control patterns for scarfing machines.
The full control of coking operations, at present, is not considered
to be technically and economically feasible. Therefore, this report
focuses on the emissions and air pollution control costs of the
sintering and steel making operations.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
This report focuses on two air pollutants: particulates and
fluorides. Carbon monoxide, a potential emission from basic oxygen
furnaces and blast furnaces is usually completely controlled. Particu-
late emissions result from the sintering operations as well as from
all the steel making furnaces. Based upon the best available data
the average level of particulate control in 1967 is thought to have
been about 55 percent fbr these unit operations. To comply with
the Clean Air Act by Fiscal Year 1976, an average level of particu-
late control of 97 percent will be required. Therefore, particulate
IV-84
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emissions would be reduced from a potential of 1.460 thousand tons
in Fiscal Year 1976 with the same controls as in 1967 to 93 thousand
tons in Fiscal Year 1976 with 97 percent control.
Fluoride emissions occur during steel making operations in all
three furnace types. It is estimated that in 1967 the fluoride
emissions were 26,400 tons and the average level of fluoride control
for the industry was about 30 percent. By Fiscal Year 1976, to
comply with the Act, an average level of control of 89 percent will
be required. With these controls, fluoride emissions would be
reduced from a potential of 35,200 tons to 5,200 tons.
In order to implement the required increases in air pollution
control levels by Fiscal Year 1976, it is estimated that an invest-
ment of $981 million will be required, and that total annual cost
will be $507 million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The processes considered for the cost analysis in this section
were the following: open hearth furnace, basic oxygen furnace,
electric arc furnace, and the sintering operation.
Particulate control levels are well below technically feasible
levels resulting in annual national emissions of about 1.5 million
tons. On the other hand, carbon monoxide, a potentially significant
emission from the basic oxygen furnace, is controlled to a great
extent by burning in waste heat boilers or in nonproductive complete
combustion of off-gases to convert the carbon monoxide to carbon
dioxide.
Totally uncontrolled rates of particulate emissions vary from
process to process. Table IV-26 presents the emission rates for
each process.
No one has attempted a comprehensive analysis of the present
level of particulate control levels in the iron and steel industry.
However, some information [Refs. 14, 33, 34], fragmentary as it is,
was used to set average nationwide control levels for the various
processes. These are presented in Table IV-27. For this table
and the rest of the discussion of present emission estimates, open
hearth control facilities are assumed to have been installed only
where oxygen lancing is practiced.
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TABLE IV-26. - UNCONTROLLED PARTICULATE EMISSION RATES
Process
Open hearth (nonoxygen lanced)
Open hearth (oxygen lanced)
Basic oxygen
Electric furnace
Sintering (windbox)
Sintering (discharge)
Emission Rate
(Ib/ton produced)
12
22
46
11
20
22
Source: Draft report, "Air Pollutant Emission Factors." APCO,
August 1970.
TABLE IV-27. - PARTICULATE CONTROL LEVELS (1967)
Process
Controlled Production
(percent)
Average Control
Efficiency (percent)
Open hearth furnace
Basic oxygen furnace
Electric furnace
Sintering (windbox)
Sintering (discharge)
27
100
61
90
0
90
95
90
75
Required particulate removal efficiencies for the various
processes were calculated as a function of process size on the
basis of the process weight rate standard and are presented in
Table IV-28.
Only rarely are fluorides associated with the raw materials,
other than fluorspar flux, used in iron and steel making. In the
few instances when fluorides have been reported in the iron ores,
fluoride emissions appear only in the blast furnace slag or in the
sintering windbox off-gases. Since last year's costs include high
energy wet scrubbing of windbox off-gases and since fluorides from
sintering are a rare occurance, these sources will not be con-
sidered further.
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TABLE IV-28. - REQUIRED REMOVAL EFFICIENCIES FOR EMISSION SOURCES^/
Emission
Source
Open hearth furnace-
Basic oxygen furnace
Electric arc furnace
Sintering machine
Sintering discharge
— — - — _ .
Capacity
(tons /melt)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
50
100
150
200
250
300
25
50
100
150
200
250
(tons/day)
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Required
Efficiency
(percent)
89.5
91.4
92.3
94.0
94.9
95.6
96.1
96.4
96.7
97.1
97.3
97.5
98.0
99.0
99.3
99.4
99.5
99.6
84.0 "
87.0
89.0
92.0
94.0
95.0
(percent)
95.0
97.0
98.0
98.3
98.6
98.8
95.0
97.0
98.0
98.5
98.7
98.9
— Based on process weight rate standard.
2 /
— All open hearth furnaces are assumed in this study to be oxygen
lanced prior to installation of control equipment.
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However, in the manufacture of steel, evolution of fluorides
as HF and SiF and entrained particulates does occur in the various
steel making furnaces [Ref. 28]. Significant fluoride emissions
occur from the operation of three major steel making furnaces.
Based upon data given in Singmaster and Breyer [Ref. 28] Table IV-29
has been developed relating furnace type, amount of fluorspar
(spar) used, and uncontrolled fluoride emissions.
On the basis of very minimal information, it would seem that
the form of the fluoride emissions is dependent upon furnace type.
Present indications are that less than one percent of the fluorides
emitted from basic oxygen furnaces and open hearth furnaces are
in the form of particulates, whereas 85 percent of the fluoride
emissions from electric furnaces are in the particulate matter.
TABLE IV-29. - FLUORIDES IN IRON AND STEEL MAKING
Furnace Type
Open Hearth
Basic Oxygen
Electric
Amount of
Spar Used
(Ibs./ton steel)
3.75
11.42
6.77
Uncontrolled
Fluoride Emissions
(Ibs./ton steel)
0.65
2.0
1.2
At present, there have been no fluoride emission standards
developed specifically for any industry other than aluminum and
fertilizer. The standards proposed for these two are so highly
specific to these industries that no simple correspondence can be
developed between them and any other industry. Therefore, on the
basis of a tentative agreement between APCO and RTI personnel,
the following standard is proposed:
a) Gaseous fluorides will be removed by at least 95 percent.
b) Particulate fluorides will be removed to a level con-
sistent with total particulate removals as specified by
the San Francisco Bay Area Standard. In other words,
whatever fluoride removal is affected when total partic-
ulates are controlled will be acceptable. In the case
of the iron and steel industry, significantly high
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fluoride particulate removals can be expected due to the
high total particulate removals required for all steel
making furnaces.
Based on these required removal efficiencies, as well as
particle size distribution functions, the choice of feasible control
systems was made for the various processes. From the set of feasible
alternatives, industry practice and other expert opinion was used to
arrive at the control system requirements shown in Table IV-30.
TABLE IV-30. - SELECTED CONTROL SYSTEMS
Process
Basic oxygen furnace
Open hearth furnace
Electric arc furnace
Sintering (windbox)
Sintering (discharge)
Control System
venturi scrubber
*
venturi scrubber
fabric filter
venturi scrubber
venturi scrubber
Comments
upgrade from 95%
50" w.g.
high temperature
20" w.g.
10" w.g.
At present, open hearth furnaces (all oxygen lanced) have a 50-50
combination of scrubbers and precipitators.
Control cost estimating relationships adopted from engineering
analyses developed by the Swindell-Dressier Corporation for each
process. Data were available on capacities and locations of all
furnaces [Ref. 35], Sintering machine locations were known from
Reference 25, but capacities had to be estimated from the known
range of capacities (2000 to 6000 tons per day) and the reported
grate dimensions which were assumed to be related to capacities.
Control cost data were obtained which presented investment and
operating costs for the extreme ends of the expected capacity
range [Ref. 36], Intermediate levels and capacities were calcu-
lated for each process using a cost function:
b
y « ax
where: y - control cost;
x « capacity; and a and b are parameters that
depend on each process.
Cost parameters for all furnace and machine types are presented
in Table IV-31.
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TABLE IV-31. - COST ESTIMATING PARAMETERS
Unit
Operation
Open hearth furnace
Basic oxygen furnace
Electric arc furnace
Sintering (windbox)
Sintering (discharge)
Control
Equipment
high, energy venturi scrubber
high energy venturi scrubber
fabric filter
medium energy venturi
scrubber
medium energy venturi
scrubber
Units
of
Capacity
tons /melt
tons /melt
tons/melt
tons of sinter/day
tons of sinter/day
, ...... ., A
Cost Estimating Parameters
"a"
Investment
8,308
35,775
12,902
837
15,835
Annual
6,576
16,318
8,400
518
5,541
"b"
Investment
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.3
Annual
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.3
VO
o
The cost function is y = ax , where y - control cost, x - capacity, and "a" and "b" are cost parameters that depend
on the type of process. The same function was applied to the calculation of both annual and investment cos-ts by simply
using the appropriate a's and b's. To illustrate the use of the parameters, suppose that it is required to determine the
investment and annual cost of controlling a basic oxygen furnace with a capacity of 400 tons per melt. The investment cost
(y) is therefore $35,775 (400)°-7 = $2.36 million with an annual cost(y) = $16,318 (400)°-8 = $1.96 million.
-------
All types of furnaces and machines were assumed to need some
additional control. Basic oxygen furnaces were assigned high
energy wet scrubbers; open hearth furnaces, high energy wet
scrubbers; electric arc furnaces, fabric filters; and sintering
machine windboxes and discharges, medium energy wet scrubbers.
The 1967 average levels of control and the national percentages
of capacity controlled were known for all furnaces and machines;
regional data were lacking, however. Accordingly, the estimated
relationship between national and regional control levels for the
gray iron foundry industry [Ref. 37] was applied to the iron and
steel industry.
The cost relationship for electric arc furnaces was calculated
using data from Reference 36, assuming two furnaces exhaust into a
single control system with appropriate staggering of operations.
If possible, two furnaces of equal capacity were paired; if not,
furnaces with no more than a 25 percent difference were paired.
Control costs for electric arc furnaces were calculated using
the y = ax cost function; when two furnaces of different capacities
were controlled, the larger capacity was assumed. Control costs
for single furnaces were calculated by dividing the control cost
for two furnaces (each of which has a capacity equal to the single
furnace) by 1.4 to allow for a reduced ducting and blower require-
ment as well as reduced average load. These calculations yielded
basic costs at the Swindell-Dressier efficiency level [Ref. 36J.
The basic costs were then adjusted to the control efficiency re-
quired by the selected standards of this study by using a cost
multiplier as described in Chapter 2, "Study Methodology." The
cost multiplier was again applied to furnaces to which existing
control levels had been assigned to obtain the cost for the re-
quired control efficiency. When the difference between the costs
for required efficiency and current efficiency was positive, it
was recorded as the net control cost; no negative costs were
recorded, although they did occasionally occur where the present
level of control exceeded the standard.
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4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
This analysis focuses on integrated basic steel firms. Air
pollution emissions that exceed the standards assumed for this
study are produced primarily by the sintering plants and open hearth
or basic oxygen furnaces of basic steel producers. Electric furnaces
are also emission sources to a lesser extent. However, when used
by secondary steel producers making specialty high alloy steels,
electric furnaces are normally controlled to a high level of efficiency
to avoid loss of valuable alloying metals. Secondary steel firms,
therefore, are not generally faced with additional control costs.
Data on the operation of the steel industry are more available
than for most industries. Nevertheless, the steel market is compli-
cated by the vast variety of distinct products sold and the variations
of product mix from one company to another. Comparison of the impact
of a change in the cost of producing raw steel as it affects different
companies is very difficult. Detailed data on such aspects of
financial management is depreciation policy, net value of investment,
pricing policy, and tax accounting are also not available, making it
especially difficult to estimate profit potential for these firms.
5. Industry Structure
In 1967 there were 142 steel plants in the United States, of
which 134 were located in the 298 metropolitan areas. The capacity,
production and value of shipments of these plants in the United
States were 165 million tons, 127 million tons and $13.3 billion,
respectively. In the metropolitan areas the capacity of the plants
was 61 million tons, production was 124 million tons, and the value
of shipments was approximately $13.1 billion.
There were 86 steel companies in the United States in 1967.
Twenty one integrated firms accounted for more than 90 percent of
the 1967 steel production in the United States. They include all
of the larger firms in the industry, with outputs in 1967 ranging
from just under 1 million tons to more than 30 million tons. Sales
for these companies varied from approximately $85 million to more
than $4 billion in that year and profits from a high of $172 million
for one firm to a loss of nearly $7 million for another. The two
largest firms produced approximately 40 percent of the steel produced
in 1967 and eight firms produced over 75 percent of the industry
output.
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6. The Market
The steel industry is usually described as an oligopoly char-
acterized by administered prices and price leadership. Typically,
list prices, which are virtually the same for all firms, remain
unchanged for a period of time without reacting to minor changes
in market conditions. Although individual prices may be shaded
through the use of special discounts or premiums, the primary
adjustment of company policy to short term market changes is to
vary output. When price changes do occur they are usually initiated
by one of the largest firms and all other companies quickly change
their price lists following the pattern set by the price leader.
Competition emphasizes product quality and customer service more
often than price.
Steel is sold to customers in every major industrial sector
of the economy. The major purchasing industries, however, are
motor vehicles, heavy equipment and machinery, containers, and
appliances. These industries strongly follow the swings of the
business cycle and as a result cyclical changes in the national
economy tend to have a magnified effect on the market for finished
steel. The basic position of steel in the economy also indicates
the probability that the long run trend of the domestic market for
steel will be one of steady expansion and gradually rising prices.
The steel industry is also subject to significant foreign
competition. Foreign participation in the U. S. steel market
increased during the 1960's and posed a real threat to the market
for some products. The export market for U. S. steel did not
balance imports during those years. This competitive pressure
was eased by the signing of an informal agreement in December,
1968, with the Japanese Iron and Steel Exporters Association and
with the association of Steel Producers of the European Coal and
Steel Community to limit exports to the United States for the years
1969 to 1971. This agreement, limiting increases in shipments from
the countries involved to not more than 5 percent per year, appears
to be effective and may well be extended. Thus the industry is
partially shielded from some foreign competition. There has been
a tendency for foreign steel producers to concentrate on the sale
of high priced speciality steels in this country, but the protection
of the agreement has been effective for basic steel producers [Ref. 38].
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7. Trends
Investment in new steel capacity has been heavy over the last
decade and is predicted to continue at a high level. The trend is
away from the older open hearth furnaces in favor of construction
of the more efficient basic oxygen and electric furnaces.
Prices have been rising following the general inflationary
trend of the economy. It is predicted that prices may rise more
slowly over the years to 1976, but the upward trend is expected to
continue. The trend of profits is difficult to determine because
net income after taxes for these companies varies substantially
from year to year. Among the factors causing these fluctuations
are very heavy "start up" costs when new facilities are put into
production, the impact of strikes, changes in accounting and tax
practices, and the tendency of firms to change output rather than
price in response to short term market changes.
8. Impact of Control Costs
The investment requirement and annual cost of air pollution
control for each steel firm will vary depending on the number and
size of its plants and the type and capacity of its steel making
furnaces. Cost estimates are calculated on the following equip-
ment designations: high energy wet scrubbers for basic oxygen
furnaces; high energy wet scrubbers for open hearth furnaces;
fabric filters for electric arc furnaces; and medium energy wet
scrubbers for sintering machine windboxes and discharges. Both the
investment requirement and the annual costs for each of these control
devices varies in relation to the capacity of the furnace or
machine and has been costed on the basis of data specifying indi-
vidual capacities in place. The other major determinant of cost
differences among plants and firms is the number of each type of
furnace in use. For example, an open hearth furance of 180 tons
per heat capacity would have an annual control cost, for operation,
maintenance, and depreciation, of $249,000 per year, based on 1967
prices. The equivalent annual cost for an electric arc furnace of
180 tons per heat capacity would be $490,000 per year and for a
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basic oxygen furnace of the same capacity would be $1,040,000 per
year. It should be noted in this comparison that the basic oxygen
furnace has a much shorter heat time and therefore a higher annual
capacity than the electric arc furnace, which in turn has a shorter
time per heat than the open hearth furnace. Thus the cost per ton
of steel produced is not in the same proportion as the annual cost,
but depends upon the production rate for each furnace.
The impact of control costs on firms may be shown by comparison
of three hypothetical examples designed to show the range of cost
per ton of steel production. A steel company with total productive
capacity of approximately 9 million tons, producing 6.4 million
tons of finished steel per year in 1967, 1/3 from basic oxygen
furnaces and 2/3 from open hearth furnaces, would incur estimated
costs as follows: total annual cost, $8,527,000; annual cost per
ton of raw steel produced, $1.14; annual cost per ton of finished
steel products, $1.33. If this firm does not have to incur new
costs for controlling its sintering machines, as assumed in this
estimate, the cost per ton of finished steel could be as low
as $0.90.
Estimated costs for a typical smaller firm having an annual
capacity of 2.24 million tons and production of 1.58 million tons
of finished steel produced entirely with open hearth furnaces shows
a total annual cost of approximately $3,000,000, or $1.91 per ton
of finished steel. Similarly, a typical firm producing 1.7 million
tons of finished steel in 1967 with a capacity of 2.3 million tons,
using only basic oxygen and electric arc furnaces, would have an
estimated annual cost of only $623,000, or $0.37 per ton of finished
steel.
Comparison of these cost estimates indicates that the impact
of control costs will probably be least on firms using many
relatively small electric arc furnaces and greatest for firms
producing primarily with open hearth furnaces. The estimated costs
are relatively small in relation to the price of finished steel
of $170 per ton in 1967, but differentials of the size indicated
may accelerate the existing trend in the industry to retire older
open hearth furnaces.
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In the light of the pricing policies of the steel industry
as described in Section 6, above, it is probable that most of the
indicated costs will be reflected in increased prices by 1976.
The firms that normally exercise price leadership in the industry
are among those with substantial open hearth capacity and will
therefore tend to reflect pressure to raise prices to cover the
higher range of control costs. In a period of generally rising
prices, an increase of the magnitude indicated for steel prices
should not produce significant changes in the market position of
the firms
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I. Kraft (Sulfate) Pulp
1. Introduction
The pulp industry manufactures pulp from wood and other
materials for use in making paper and related products. The
methods used to produce pulp from wood may be classified as
chemical or mechanical, only the chemical methods causing
significant air pollution problems. Two chemical pulp produc-
tion methods, sulfite and sulfate (kraft), account for approxi-
mately 75 percent of the total industry output. Only kraft
pulping, which accounts for approximately 64 percent of the
industry output, is considered in this report. Even though
sulfite pulping is a potentially serious source of sulfur dioxide,
when waste liquor incineration is practiced, the control costs are
more than offset. This is because the sulfur dioxide emissions
from the sulfite process usually are controlled since the value of
recovered heat and process chemicals offset the annual costs
of control.
In the kraft process, woodchips are cooked in a liquor com-
posed of sodium hydroxide and sodium sulfide. This separates the
lignin from the cellulose. Pulp is then produced from the cellulose.
The separated lignin is burned as a fuel in the recovery furnace
and the chemicals in the salt cake solution are recycled.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
In kraft pulp mills, four main processes emit significant
quantities of particulates: recovery furnaces, smelt dissolving
tanks, lime kilns, and bark boilers. Although there are emissions
of sulfur dioxide, these almost never exceed the 500 p.p.m. standard.
Since the economics of the kraft method depend upon recovery of
chemicals, emissions from the first three processes are controlled
to prevent the loss of these chemicals. Particulates from bark
boilers are also controlled, but to an extent which falls short of
the standard adopted for this study. Overall, the average industry
control level for particulates in 1967 was 81 percent. To meet the
standard by Fiscal Year 1976, the average industry control level
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would have to reach 98 percent. Without implementation of the standard,
particulate emissions would reach 847,000 tons for kraft plants within
the 298 metropolitan areas. Assuming implementation, this could be
reduced to 120,000 tons.
By Fiscal Year 1976 an investment of $73.0 million will be
required to achieve full implementation for the plants within the
298 metropolitan areas. This would result, by Fiscal Year 1976,
in an annualized cost of $30.3 million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The basic engineering approach taken to estimate air pollution
control costs for the pulp and paper industry consisted of: (a)
an evaluation of the various production processes commonly found
within the industry, (b) an analysis of the pollutants involved,
their uncontrolled emission rates, present levels of control and
final levels as required by the various standards adopted for this
study, and (c) an evaluation to select the most satisfactory control
systems to achieve the required levels.
The three most important classes of pulp-making operations
from the standpoint of potential air pollutant emissions are: Ca)
the sulfate (kraft) process, (b) the sulfite process, and (c) the
neutral sulfite semi-chemical process. The sulfite process is a
potentially serious source of SO^; however, several factors con-
tributed to the omission of this process from this study. First,
in those plants which do not practice waste liquor incineration,
SO. emissions are practically negligible. In those plants practicing
incineration, chemical and thermal recovery is economically
attractive [Refs.39, 40]. Therefore, this report assumes that all
sulfite plants have or will soon have chemical and thermal recovery
systems which profitably reduce SO. emissions to less than the 500
ppm limit.
In neutral sulfite semichemical (NSSC) pulping, partlculates are not
a problem; therefore, NSSC pulping was not considered for the purposes
of this s tudy.
The kraft process, however, represents an emission source which must
be considered. Particulate emissions from this pulping process are being
emitted to the atmosphere in quantities exceeding the standard adopted
IV-98
-------
for this study. The kraft pulping process includes the following unit pro-
cesses: (a) black liquor recovery furnaces, (b) lime regeneration kilns,
(c) smelt-dissolving tanks, and (d) bark boilers.•*
Uncontrolled rates of particulate emissions are presented in Table IV-32.
Table IV-32. - UNCONTROLLED PARTICULATE EMISSION RATES
Process
Recovery furnace
Lime kiln
Smelt-dissolving tank
Bark boiler
Emission Rate
(Ib/ton air dried pulp)
150
94
20
18
Source: References 14 and 41.
The emissions from the recovery furnace and lime kiln consist mainly of
very fine sodium and calcium salt fumes, while those of the smelt tank are,
very fine mists containing carbonates and sulfides of sodium. Presently, all
of the processes are, on the average, controlled to some extent. Table IV-33
presents estimated particulate control levels.
Table IV-33. - ESTIMATED PARTICULATE CONTROL LEVELS AND
EMISSION RATES AFTER CONTROL
Process
Recovery furnace
Lime kiln
Smelt-dissolving tank
Bark boiler
Control
Ef f. (percent)
86
80
50
75
Emission Rate After Control
(Ib/ton air dry pulp)
21.0
18.7
10.0
4.5
Based upon the process weight rate particulate emission standard,
ultimate removal efficiencies were calculated for the various processes
as a function of gas volume as presented in Table IV-34.
The relationship between gas volume and production for each process
is given in Table IV-35.
^ Non-bark burning boilers are also present, but are considered under
industrial boiler sources.
IV-99
-------
Table IV-34. - REQUIRED REMOVAL EFFICIENCIES FOR KRAFT PROCESSED
Process
Recovery furnaces
Lime kiln
Smelt-dissolving
tanks
9 /
Bark boilers-'
3
Gas Volume (10 acfm)
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2.5
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
55.0
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
Percent Efficiency Required
95.0
97.8
98.5
98.9
99.1
99.3
99.4
96.9
97.8
98.2
98.3
98.6
98.8
98.9
99.0
99.1
99.2
99.3
84.0
93.2
95.2
96.0
96.4
98.8
93.0
93.0
93.0
95.0
95.0
95.0
96.0
96.0
97.0
— Gas volume data taken from a 1969 APCO summary^of unpublished surveys;
required efficiencies were calculated.
2 /
— Bark boilers were considered in this study as a process step; there-
fore, the more stringent process weight rate standard was applied instead
of the Maryland Combustion Regulation.
IV-100
-------
Table IV-35. - GAS VOLUME VS. PRODUCTION FOR KRAFT PROCESSES
Process
Recovery furnace
Lime kiln
Smelt-dissolving tank
Bark boiler
Gas Volume Production
(acfm/100 T/D)
25,000
3,200
3,100
8,000
100 tons per day air-dried pulp.
Adapted from Reference 41.
To achieve the required control efficiency levels, the control systems
presented in Table IV^36 were selected.
Table 17-36. - CONTROL SYSTEMS SELECTED
Process
Control System
Pressure Drop
Recovery furnace
Lime kiln
Smelt-dissolving tank
Bark boiler
Venturi scrubber
Venturi scrubber
Venturi scrubber
Multi-cyclone
30" w.g.
20" w.g.
10" w.g.
4-5" w.g.
Assumed to follow existing electrostatic precipitator.
Data on location and total capacity of each kraft pulp mill [Ref .42]
and on the capacity of each lime recovery kiln within each mill [Ref. 43j
were available for the 298 metropolitan areas. The data on total capacity
of each mill were used along with data from a APCO survey [Ref. 44] to
determine the capacity of recovery furnaces, smelt-dissolving tanks, and
bark-burning boilers in each mill.
All recovery furnaces were assumed to be of equal size within a plant
and to have an associated smelt-dissolving tank of corresponding capacity.
LV-101
-------
For each mill, a pair of equal-sized bark boilers were assigned a total capa-
city appropriate to the total mill capacity and a bark factor (tons of bark
per ton of pulp) was used.-' A complete list of lime mud recovery kilns by
size was obtained from Rock Products [Ref. 43J.
The type of control varied with the type of process equipment. Recovery
furnaces and smelt-dissolving tanks were assigned venturi scrubbers that use
a weak black liquor scrubbing medium; lime kilns were assigned venturi scrubbers;
and bark boilers were assigned specially-designed multicyclone collectors.
Control costs were calculated from the data in Tables iy-37 through. IV-40.
Gas volume - equipment cost and gas volume - annual operating cost relationships
are presented for the various required control systems in Figures IV-,8 4:hj:ough
IV-14. Installed costs are 3 times the equipment costs for the black liquor
scrubbers, 2 times for the wet scrubbers, and 2 times for the multicyclones.
Annual costs are operating costs plus 20 percent of the investment. The
resulting costs for controlling each mill were totalled for each of the 298
metropolitan areas.
Table IV-37. - KRAFT RECOVERY FURNACE EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Furnace Gas
Volume (103 acfm)
25.0
75.0
125.0
175.0
225.0
275.0
325.0
Associated Capacity
(tons /day)*
96
290
485
680
870
1065
1260
Investment Cost
($1000)
92.0
123.0
198.0
258.6
309.0
375.0
420.0
Annual Cost
($1000)
20.1
48.6
78.1
94.7
130.0
158.0
180.4
Tons of air-dried pulp per day.
Calculated from the Sirrine report (see Reference 41).
IV-102
-------
Table IV-38. - ROTARY LIME RECOVERY KILN EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Capacity
(tons /day)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Installed Cost
($1000)
14.0
17.3
20.0
22.5
25.0
26.5
28.0
29.7
32.0
34.6
37.8
40.9
44.0
Annual Cost
($1000)
8.8
12.0
15.0
17.7
20.5
23.4
26.5
29.2
31.4
34.3
37.6
41.2
45.2
Table IV-39. - KRAFT SMELT-DISSOLVING TANK EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Tank Gas Volume
CLO3 acfm)
2.5
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
52.5
55.0
Associated Capacity
Vfe
(tons /day)
80
240
400
560
720
880
1040
1200
1360
1520
1680
1760
Investment Cost
($1000)
5.2
13.0
17.0
20.0
23.2
25.9
28.7
31.4
34.0
36.8
39.6
41.0
Annual Cost
($1000)
2.0
6.2
8.5
10.8
13.1
15.3
17.6
19.9
22.1
24.4
26.7
29.7
Tons of air-dried pulp per day.
IV-103
-------
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
o
o
o
to
o
B
ex
-H
3
a-
w
30
20
10
9
8
7
6
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
B = 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined
Separator
C = All Mild Steel
LLUJ
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
30 40 50 60708090
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-8. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-104
-------
1000
800
600
400
200
o
o
o
« 100
o
d
0)
e
P.
•H
3
CP
w
80
60
40
20
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
.B = 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined Separator
C = All Mild Steel
j i i i
20
40
60 80 100
200
400
600 800 1000
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-9. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-105
-------
1000
800
600
500
400
300
200
o
o
o
01
o
u
00
c
l-l
tlJ
a.
o
o
0)
i-i
•H
Q
Cd
d
c
100
80
60
50
40
30
20
10
PRESSURE DROP
40 inch
I I I I III
2 3 45678910
20 30 40 5060 80 100
200 300400 600800
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Pig. IV-10. Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-106
-------
10
9
8
7
6
500
400
300
g 200
o
no
o
u
M 100
c
2 90
2 80
01
£ 70
Oi
3 50
40
30
20
10
SCRUBBER
EFFICIENCY
99%
1
J I I I i I I
10
20 30 40 5060708090100
2
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
200
300 400 600 800
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-11. Annual Direct Operating Cost for Recovery Boiler Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-107
-------
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
o
o 20
0)
o
o
00
-S 10
QJ
O.
o
4-1
U
01
SCRUBBER
EFFICIENCY
99.5%
I
U_L1J
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70809010
Inlet Gas Volume ( 10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-12. Annual Direct Operating Cost for Lime Kiln Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-108
-------
35
30
25
o
o
o
» 20
o
u
a
•H
3
-------
0
a
-------
Table IV-40. - KRAFT BARK BOILER EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Boiler Gas Volume
(10 acfm)
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
Associated Capacity
(tons /day) *
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Costs
($1000)
Investment
13.4
18.5
23.0
33.8
40.0
43.8
49.0
53.7
57.5
Annual
3.5
4.3
5.1
6.1
7.0
7.8
8.6
9.4
10.1
Tons of air-dried pulp per day.
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Open market sale of kraf t pulp constitutes a very small part
of total production, making the open market reaction to the cost of
air pollution control a less than ideal indicator of industry impact.
In this case, however, it appears that the market for kraft pulp
is in fact a significant supplier of the marginal resource inputs
and, therefore, an integral part of the industry rather than an
overflow market. On this basis it is assumed that the pulp market
reflects cost changes that will affect the entire kraft paper industry.
Analysis of the impact of control costs on price and profit
is clouded by the presence in the industry of many firms that pro-
duce nonpaper products, including lumber, metal containers, and
other diverse products.
5. Structure of the Industry
Kraft jmlping is a segment of the ninth largest manufacturing
industry in the United States — the pulp and paper industry
(Table IV-41). Most pulp produced by the kraft process (and the
other processes as well) is made by integrated companies and con-
sumed by them in the production of paper and paper products.
About eight percent of the kraft pulp is marketed, resulting from
independent firms without paper making facilities and from
integrated firms producing surplus for market.
IV-111
-------
The availability of raw materials, level of labor costs, and
nearness of markets are prime determinants of plant location. The
heaviest concentration of kraft plants is in the Southeastern section
of the United States. Twenty-four of the 71 Southeastern plants are
not, however, in air quality control regions.
Statistics concerning the kraft (sulfate) pulp industry are
shown in Table IV-41.
Table iy-41. - 1967 STATISTICS ON THE' KRAFT CSTJIfFATE) PULP INDUSXKX
298
United Metropolitan
States Areas
Number of Plants
Number of Firms
Capacity (Millions
of Tons)
Production (Millions of Tons)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of Dollars)
116
72
32.1
23.9
3.6
81
51*
22.5
16.8
2.5
Forty-three firms have all their plants in the 298 metropolitan
areas, 8 firms have some, and 21 firms have none.
6. The Market
a. The Competitive Pattern
Production of kraft pulp in the United States is a direct
function of the market for the paper and paper products pro-
duced from it and it is this market, therefore, that is dis-
cussed in this section. A number of large firms operate in
the kraft paper industry, but they do not have sufficient
market power to dominate the industry. There are a large
number of buyers in the market, also, from a broad spectrum
of industries providing a highly diversified and competitive
market. Prices tend to react freely-to relative changes in
supply and demand.
A large share of kraft production goes into containers
and packaging materials, including wrapping paper, bags, cor-
rugated boxes, frozen food containers, milk cartons, and other
food packaging. The industry faces strong competition for
these markets from makers of plastic, aluminum, and aluminum
foil substitutes. The kraft industry appears to be holding a
fairly constant share of this growing market through continued
IV-lli
-------
research and development of products adapted to the customers
needs. Maintenance of its price position relative to the
prices of substitutes is essential if it is to maintain its
market share.
Foreign competition is primarily in the form of imported
pulp, which amounts to just under 5 percent of U. S. production.
Canada supplies approximately 90 percent of imported pulp and
has been an important factor in the newsprint and printing
paper market. Kraft pulp and paper are exported from the U. S.,
accounting for over half the industry exports.
b. Trends
The dominant pattern in the industry is the investment
price cycle. Although demand has tended to increase fairly
steadily, roughly proportional to population growth with less
than the national average reflection of the general business
cycle, investment in the paper industry tends to follow a five
year cycle. At the beginning of the cycle the industry invests
heavily and competitively to meet actual and anticipated growth
in demand. When new facilities come into production, the in-
dustry as a whole is faced with overcapacity. Prices decline
as firms compete for markets, profits are depressed, and in-
vestment is cut back. As demand catches up to supply, prices
increase, profits improve, and new investment is undertaken.
This pattern tends to keep profits generally below the average
of manufacturing firms in general. The industry appears to
be in the rising price phase of the cycle in 1970 and increased
investment may be expected in 1971 and 1972, followed by potential
excess capacity.
Another important trend of recent years has been to more
highly integrated firms and inclusion of kraft paper firms in
conglomerates. The small percentage of pulp entering the open
market is a good indicator of the extent of vertical integration
that has occured.
Paper firms have been diversifying, also, using their
land and forest resources to enter the recreation, real estate,
and lumber markets. Conversely, firms formerly in the
lumber and plywood industries have diversified into paper
products as have firms producing competing container products.
IV-113
-------
7. Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Cost for Model Plants
In order to illustrate the varying impact of control,
two plant sizes and the associated investment and annualized
cost are shown below.
Total Cost of
Mill Size Annual Control/ton
(tons/day) Investment Cost Produced IQ/
145 $160,100 $ 61,420 $1.24
1,000 $862,000 $381,550 $1.14
These results assume venturi scrubbers were used to con-
trol emissions from the recovery furnaces, lime kilns, and smelt-
dissolving tanks. Redesigned multicyclones were assumed to be
used to control emissions from the bark boiler. The 145 tons/
day mill size was assumed to have one recovery furnace, one
lime kiln, one smelt-dissolving tank, and one bark boiler;
the 1,000 tons/day mill size was assumed to have two of each
of these units, with larger operating capacities.
The costs are not directly proportional to the number of
units of equipment to be controlled, but vary according to
size as well. About 45 percent of the United States plants
approximate the 1,000 tons/day mill size and about 16 percent
approximate the 140 ton/day mill size. The costs range from
$1.14 to $1.24 per ton of sulfate pulp. These costs are
relatively low when compared to the sales price of market
pulp, which was about $124 per ton in 1968.
b. Impact on the Industry
Depending primarily on mill size, location, degree of
vertical and horizontal integration, and financial position,
impact will vary across the industry.
The most severe impact will be on the marginal nonintegrated
firms that have all their plants in air quality control regions.
— Assuming production at 89. percent pf capacity.
IV-114
-------
Most of the firms are vertically integrated and have some or
all of their plants in air quality control regions. These
facts, along with the increasing demand for pulp and paper
exports, the upward pressure on pulp and paper prices, and the
favorable economic position of customer industries, should
enable nearly all industry firms to apply controls and pass
the control cost on to the customer.
IV-115
-------
J. Lime
1. Introduction
The basic processes in the production of lime are quarrying
limestone (high calcium or dolomitic), preparing the limestone
for kilns (crushing and sizing), and calcining the stone. The
lime may be processed further by additional crushing and sizing
and hydration. In some cases, clam or oyster shells serve as
kiln feed. The products of lime manufacturing are limestone, quick-
lime, and hydrated lime. The product is further classified as
high-calcium or dolomitic depending on the percentage of magnesium
carbonate present in the raw material. High calcium lime is pro-
duced from stone containing at least 95 percent calcium carbonate,
while dolomitic lime is produced from limestone containing 30-45
percent of magnesium carbonate. Most hydrated lime is packaged
in multi-wall paper bags with- very little bulk shipment, while
the opposite condition prevails for quicklime. Quicklime is
commercially available in these forms: lump, pebble, ground,
pulverized, and pelletized. Quicklime is very reactive to water
and carbon dioxide and is generally manufactured as it is needed,
with very little stockpiling. One hundred pounds of pure calcium
carbonate limestone will calcine to 56 pounds of quicklime, which.
when completely reacted with 18 pounds of water will result in 74
pounds of hydrated lime. The leading uses of open market lime are
as steel flux, refractory lime, in construction, and in water
softening and treatment. Agricultural lime accounts for approxi-
mately 2 percent of sales.
The majority of lime is produced in rotary kilns or shaft
(vertical) kilns; both are fired by coal, oil, or gas. Other types
of calcinators are in use, but the production from them is considered
insignificant compared to the two named above. It is estimated
that rotary kilns account for 80 percent of lime produced, with the
remaining production coming from vertical kilns. Rotary kilns have
the advantages of high production per manhour and uniform quality
production but require higher capital investment and have higher
unit fuel costs than most vertical kilns. The open market industry
IV-116
-------
trend is toward installation of larger capacity rotaries with a
far higher capacity than vertical kilns.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
Particulate emissions in the form of limestone and lime dust
are the main source of pollution from the lime industry. At almost
every step of the manufacturing process, dust is emitted. The
following processes are involved: drilling holes in the quarry
for explosives, blasting, loading stone for transport, transporting
the stone (often over unimproved roads), crushing, pulverizing, and
vibrating for sizing. At the plant site, limestone is usually
moved between operations on open belt conveyors. The lime kiln
is probably the major source of particulate emissions at the plant
site; the estimates of emissions and control cost given here are
limited to kilns, since this is the source for which control is
available. Estimates for rotary kilns place the dust emissions at 5
to 15 percent of the weight of the lime produced, while vertical
kiln emissions are only about 1 percent of the weight of the lime
produced. Combustion of fuels for lime burning is another source
of lime plant pollution.
Particulate emissions from plants in the 298 regions in 1967
are estimated to have been 181,000 tons, allowing for an average
control level of 60 percent for the industry. Predicted growth
of the industry would increase emissions to 253,000 tons by FY 1976
with the control level unchanged. Installation of cyclonic
scrubbers on vertical kilns and venturi scrubbers on rotary kilns
can achieve 97 percent control of emissions, reducing the FY 1976
emissions to 20,300 tons of particulates. For this sector of the
industry, the total annual cost of control by FY 1976 is estimated
to be $14.5 million and the investment requirement is estimated to
be $10.6 million.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
At the lime plant, the kiln operation is the major source of
uncontrolled particulate emissions. Rotary kilns have been found to
emit between 5 to 15 percent by weight of the lime produced. Vertical
kilns emit significantly less dust, amounting to only about 1 percent
of the lime produced. In addition to the emissions from kiln operations,
which represent a major portion of dust generated, there are emissions
IV-117
-------
from other operations. Limestone quarrying and transportation cause
localized emissions for which efficient solutions are not available.
Other than moderately effective dust suppression techniques at the
quarry site and improvement of the road from the quarry to the lime
plant, little else can be done at present. Limestone crushing and
screening operations represent a potentially significant source of
particulate emissions. Generally, however, plants which have well
constructed buildings with adequate dust ventilation systems enclosing
the crushing and screening operations may be considered satisfactorily
controlled. This is the case with most modern plants. In older plants
which have poorly constructed buildings and inadequate ventilation
systems, the dust remains a problem only in the building and the
immediate surrounding area. Lime hydrating, processing, and packaging
are significant sources of noxious material; however, the use of
adequate dust ventilation and control systems is quite widespread in
this area of the plant.
Various types of lime kilns are presently used by the industry.
Of these, rotary and vertical kilns produce the major percentage of
lime and emit the major quantity of particulates. If uncontrolled,
rotary kilns emit approximately 200 pounds of particulates per ton
of lime produced while vertical kilns emit about 20 pounds of partic-
ulates per ton of lime [Ref. 45]. At .present, rotary kilns are
generally controlled with dry mechanical collectors resulting in
average reductions of about 80 percent. Vertical kilns in general
are presently uncontrolled. Control efficiencies were calculated to
comply with the process weight rate standard. These are shown in
Table IV-42.
Control systems to achieve required control limits were selected
on the basis of incremental control required as well as on industry
experience. For rotary kilns, medium energy (25" w.g.) venturi scrubbers
were assumed as the secondary collector. For vertical kilns, cyclonic
wet scrubbers (6" w.g.) were chosen as the basis for the control cost
estimates. To relate process size to control equipment capacity, the
estimated gas volumes shown in Table IV-43 were used.
IV-118
-------
Table IV-42. - ULTIMATE CONTROL EFFICIENCY REQUIRED
Capacity
(tons /day)
10
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Control Efficiency Required
(percent)
Rotary Kiln
N/A*
N/A*
97.8
98.1
98.8
98.9
99.2
99.3
99.4
Vertical Kiln
52.4
78.6
79.8
83.8
*
*
*
*
*
Not applicable.
Table IV-43. - LIME KILN GAS VOLUMES
Kiln type
Rotary
Vertical
Unit Volume
(acfm/ton/hour)
5500
3200
Adapted from data in A Study of the Lime Industry in the State
of Missouri for the Air Conservation Commission of the State
of Missouri.Reston, Virginia:Resources Research, Inc.,
January 1968.
Equipment cost - process size relationships [Ref. 41J for the
control equipment selected are presented in Figures IV-15 through IV-19.
For both types of equipment, stainless steel was selected as the con-
struction material with an installed cost to equipment cost ratio of
two.
The distribution of capacities according to manufacturer's reports
of rotary kilns and other data was used to calculate a weighted average
IV-119
-------
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
o
o
o
CO
o
CJ
t
•H
D
V
w
10
9
8
7
6
= 316 ELC Stainless Steel
= 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined
Separator
C = All Mild Steel
5 6 7 8 9 10
20
30 40 50 60 70 80S
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-15. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubber.
IV-120
-------
1000
800
600
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
B = 304 Venturi/MS Concrete Lined Separator
C = All Mild Steel
400
200
o
o
o
olOOl
•H
3
w 60|
80
40
20
20
40 60 80 100
200
400 600 800 1000
Inlet Gas Volume (10J acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-16. Equipment Cost for Venturi Scrubber.
IV-121
-------
o
o
o
CO
o
60
c
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-17. Annual Direct Operating Cost for Venturi Scrubbers.
IV-12 2
-------
A = 316 ELC Stainless Steel
B = 304 Stainless Steel
C = Mild Steel, Concrete Lined
D = Fiberglass
J L
3 4 5 6789 10
20 30 40 50 60 7080 100
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-18. Equipment Cost for Cyclonic Scrubbers.
IV-123
-------
100
80
60
50
40
30
20
o
o
o
C
•H
•U
0)
t-l
a)
a,
o
•H
Q
10
8
6
c
< 0.8
0.6
0-5
0.4
0.3
0.2
I
JJJH
2 3 4 5678910
20 30 405060 80 100 200 30040056785
3
Inlet Gas Volume (10 acfm)
Source: Poly Con Corporation.
Fig. IV-19. Annual Direct Operating Cost for Cyclonic Scrubbers.
IV-124
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cost of control per ton of capacity using the data in Table IV-44.
For rotary kilns, the weighted average installed cost was $73.30 per
ton of capacity per day, the weighted average annual cost was $102.00
per ton of capacity per day.
Table IV-44. - ROTARY LIME KILN EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Capacity
(tons/day)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Number of
Kilns
4
3
16
8
10
9
14
4
18
6
2
4
2
Installed Cost
($1000)
14.0
17.3
20.0
22.5
25.0
26.5
28.0
29.7
32.0
34.6
37.8
40.9
44.0
Annual Cost
($1000)
11.8
17.6
23.2
28.5
33.9
39.4
45.1
50.4
55.2
60.7
66.6
72.7
77.2
Since data were not available on the capacity distribution for
vertical kilns, the rotary kiln capacities were used to design a
known distribution for vertical kilns. The weighted average cost of
control per ton of capacity was then calculated using data in Table IV-45.
For vertical kilns, the weighted average installed cost was $179.20
per ton of capacity per day and the weighted average annual cost was
$64.20 per ton of capacity per day.
To get the overall average cost per ton of capacity, the two
average costs were combined using the known production ratio of 80
percent for rotary and 20 percent for vertical kilns. This cost
was multiplied by estimated metropolitan area capacity to get the
final control costs for each area.
IV-125
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Table IV-45. - VERTICAL LIME KILN EMISSION CONTROL COSTS
Capacity
(tons /day)
10
26
42
58
74
90
106
122
138
154
170
186
200
Number of
Kilns
4
3
16
8
10
9
14
4
18
6
2
4
2
Installed Cost
($1000)
5.8
7.2
9.0
11.1
13.9
17.0
20.2
22.1
23.7
24.9
26.1
27.1
28.0
Annual Cost
($1000)
2.0
2.8
3.1
3.9
4.9
6.2
7.3
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.3
9.7
10.0
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
The technical and cost analysis in this section deals with the
entire lime industry except plants captive to the paper industry.
The analysis of economic impact is focused on the firms in the open
market, since it is there that the economic effect is most clearly
defined. The incidence of the incremental cost resulting from air
pollution control in captive plants depends upon the accounting
conventions and the ownership form followed between captive and
parent company.
For the United States, 121 firms were identified as selling
lime in the open market. From the data available it was not possible
to determine accurately how many of the plants included within the
298 metropolitan areas were captive, but it may be assumed that the
proportion of captive to open market is approximately the same for
the 298 areas as for the United States, i.e., 42 percent. Data on
revenue and profit by firm or plant were not available.
IV-126
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5. Industry Structure
Since 1963, the United States Bureau of Mines has reported
the number of active lime plants in the United States and Puerto
Rico which sold lime. These can be considered the open market
commercial plants. In the United States and Puerto Rico in 1967,
there were 121 active plants which sold lime. There were 185
captive and open market plants in the United States and 113 in the
298 metropolitan areas.— The number of plants has declined signifi-
cantly since early in the century due to economic changes in the
industry, but the decline has leveled off since the beginning of
the 1960's, averaging about 124 plants from 1963 to 1968. There
may be further slight declines as small producers find it less and
less profitable to operate. The opening of new, efficient plants
probably will offset the closures and some existing plants will
expand their capacity.
There are no complete data on plant size for the open market
producers. Examination of available data, primarily Dun and
Bradstreet reports and trade journal articles, indicates that
plants range in size from 1-4 employees to over 200 employees,
with many plants in the 30-70 employee range. Capacity data for
the open market producers are equally scarce. Some of the larger
producers have been covered in articles in the trade journals and
several have reported capacities in the 100-1500 tons per day
category. The smallest plants are not reported in the literature
but given an employment category of 1-4, it is almost certain that
some plants operate with only a single, small capacity (5-20 tons
per day) vertical kiln.
It is reported that open market lime is produced in 33 of the
50 states [Ref. 46]. In number of commercial plants, Ohio led
the nation in 1967 with 15, followed in order by Pennsylvania with
14, Virginia and Texas each with 9, and California with 6. Suffi-
cient data are not available to rank the states by open market
production for 1967, but reports the 1963 ranking as: (1) Ohio,
(2) Missouri, (3) Pennsylvania, (4) Virginia, (5) Alabama and
(6) Texas. The eastern half of the United States is the location
for the majority of producers apparently because of the quality of
& This does not include lime kilns captive to kraft (sulfate) pulp plants.
IV-127
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the lime deposits found there. Open market producers are scattered
sparsely throughout the western half of the nation without concentra-
tion in any one area except for the California - Southern Nevada area.
Many firms are multi-plant producers. According to a National
Lime Association Map, one company had eight plants in operation in
1967 with some other firms operating from three to seven plants.
6. Market
a. Competition Among Sellers
The lime industry is reported to be intensely competitive.
This condition may exist largely as a result of the threat of
captive lime. Lime producers are constantly faced with the
possibility that the buyers of the product may begin producing
lime themselves, and many have done so in recent years. About
60 percent of captive production is the inevitable result of
the producers' need for an economical source of carbon dioxide
and, in some cases, the lime itself; for example, the alkali
industry and sugar refineries. Also, much of the captive
production is done by industries which normally would purchase
lime from a commercial producer, e.g., steel producers and
copper smelters.
The competitive pressure is probably most severe in those
areas with a number of producers supplying essentially a
uniform grade of lime. Additional competitive pressure may
result from the desire of firms to attain the higher profit
margins usually associated with producing nearer optimum
capacity. Quicklime is reactive to atmospheric moisture and
should be used quickly—within a month or two—after manufacture.
Since any which has been produced and not sold is, of course,
subject to becoming waste, the firm would face some pressure
to dispose of it.
There may be a few plants in the Midwest which experience
little competition in this immediate marketing area due to
the sparseness of producers, but even these would face some
competition on the outer fringes of their market.
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b. Economic Position of Customer Industries
Use as steel flux is the leading single market for lime
at present, with over a third of open market lime going for
this one use. With the increased use of the basic oxygen
furnace (BOF) in the steel industry, expectations are that
as much as 40 percent of open market production may go for
this use by 1975.
Refractory lime (dead-burned dolomite) for the open
hearth steel furnaces, long the leading single use for open
market lime, dropped from first place in the early 1960's
with the steel industry's change over to the basic oxygen
process. The expectation of the industry is that refractory
lime will continue to decline in importance as a market for
the product as the switch to the BOF continues.
Taken as an industry, construction usages are an important
market for lime, with particular promise being held for the
use of lime in soil stabilization in highway, parking lot and
airport runway construction and in foundations for large
buildings. The pulp and paper market continues in importance
to the open market lime producers. Increased usage is expected
in water treatment and softening and in sewage and trade waste
treatment. The calcium carbide and alkalie industries have been
declining markets for lime and are expected to continue to
deline in importance.
The economic position of the lime consumers appears
sound in the immediate future. Optimistic projections prevail
for the steel industry, with estimates of 150 million net
tons of steel production by 1975. This represents a growth in
steel production of approximately 3.9 percent. The pulp and
paper industry should also experience favorable economic con-
ditions with new and expanded product lines.
c. 'Foreign 'Competition'arid Markets
United States imports of lime have been declining each
year since 1965 when a decade high of 276 thousand tons were
imported. In recent years virtually all of the imported lime
has been from Canada. The reason for the mid 1960's high import
tonnage may have been the sudden demand produced by the steel
IV-129
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producers with the increased production of basic oxygen
furnaces. Domestic producers were not able immediately to
meet all the demand with existing capacity and widespread
expansion in the lime industry can be seen following 1965.
As United States capacity began to reach adequate levels to
supply the steel industry, the need to import lime was
reduced. Foreign competition in lime should not be a problem
to the industry in the early 1970's since the increased capacity
of United States producers appears adequate to supply the
known markets. The only chance of foreign gains would be in
the event of the opening of a sudden, wide market for lime.
Some imports can be expected to continue since there are
Canadian producers closer to certain United States markets
than any United States producer. This is the case in the far
Northeast, and generally along the United States Canadian
border. Also, there are a number of Canadian producers in
Ontario who must be considered competitors in the Ohio-Michigan-
Pennsylvania marketing area.
The export market for United States lime does not appear
significant. The 1968 data indicate that exports that year
were 69,000 tons, about 1/2 percent of United States open
market lime sold. As might be expected, most exports go to
Mexico and Canada; the two countries combined receive 80-90
percent of United States export lime.
Trends
a. Production
The production of open market lime in the United States
and Puerto Rico increased from 8,190 thousand tons in 1960
to 12,100 thousand tons in 1968, an increase of about 48
percent. This large increase in production was spurred by
several new and expanded uses of the product and follows a
decade of rather lacklustre performance by the industry. In
1967, open market production was 11,500 thousand tons, 40
percent above the 1960 level. The remarkable growth of
the lime industry in the 1960's was a result of increased use
of basic oxygen furnaces in the steel industry, with the
IV-1301
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associated higher levels of lime usage per ton of steel
produced. The open hearth furnaces require about 20 pounds
of lime for each ton of steel produced, while the basic oxygen
process needs about 150 pounds of lime for each ton of steel
produced. Increased usage of lime was also seen in soil stabi-
lization, sewage and water treatment, and water softening.
Optimism prevails in the industry and open market production
is expected to continue to grow at a healthy pace into the
seventies.
b. Price
Price data for open market lime are available in Bureau
of Mines Reports only for 1963-68. During this period, the
national average f.o.b. plant price of lime without containers
declined from $14.47 per ton to $13.71 per ton, a drop of 5.3
percent. Although not certain, this depression in the price
level may partially be the results of hard bargaining by
steel firms for lower prices. This trend did not hold in
all areas during the period, however. In Texas, the f.o.b.
plant price of lime rose from $10.94 per ton in 1963 to
$12.63 per ton in 1968, a 15 percent increase. The available
data indicate that a declining price trend existed in a number
of major producing states: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
California. Continuation of depressed prices is unlikely in
the face of rising production costs, however. The average
f.o.b. plant price of lime sold increased marginally between
1967 and 1968, from $13.68 per ton to $13.71 per ton. The
price trend may turn up after initial competition for the
steel business.
Another contributing factor to lower prices in most
areas may have been that a number of new efficient plants
went on line during this period, as well as new capacity at
established firms. There is a definite trend toward larger
plants, and the economies acheived with the newer, higher
capacity kilns may have resulted in downward pressure on prices.
IV-131
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c. Technology
Technological advances usually come from outside the
industry proper. Sources of advancement are equipment manu-
facturers, industrial users of lime, and fellowships supported
by the National Lime Association. In the last category there have
been research fellowships dealing with lime use in soils
stabilization, asphalt paving, masonry mortars, autoclaved
concrete products, steel fluxing, acid neutralization, trade-
waste treatment, and agricultural lining. The National Lime
Association was instrumental in the market development and
promotion of lime as a soils stabilization agent. This is
now one of the most promising markets for the product.
Continued research and development by equipment manufacturers
have led to higher capacity thermally efficient kilns, both
vertical and rotary. Industry spokesmen continue to stress
the need for increased research, development, and marketing
efforts by those in the industry, but without much effect.
Even during relatively prosperous periods, the industry seems
unwilling to invest in adequate research to insure continued
vitality; the reluctance has been even more pronounced in
the past during less prosperous periods. Low profit margins
have been blamed as the reason for lack of research.
8. Economic Impact of Control Costs
a' Control Cost Factors
The investment required and the annual cost of control
equipment varies according to the size and type of kiln. In
1967 a typical vertical kiln of approximately 100 tons per day
capacity would require a cyclonic scrubber with an installed
cost of approximately $20,000 and the annual cost, including
depreciation, finance costs, and operating expenses, would be
approximately $7,300 per year. A typical rotary kiln will be
somewhat larger, with a capacity of approximately 400 tons per
day. This would require a venturi scrubber with, an installed
cost, in 1967 prices, of just under $30,000 and an annual cost
of approximately $45,000. Overall, for the captive and open
market plants in the 298 metropolitan areas, average investment
IV-132
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is estimated at $67,000 per plant and average annual cost at
$92,000 per plant in 1967.
b. Model Firms, As Examples
Costs of controlling particulate emissions from lime
kilns have been estimated for five model firms. The jnodel
firms were constructed to illustrate the costs to be encountered
by firms with production solely from vertical kilns, solely
from rotary kilns, and a combination of both types of kilns,
with the firms spread over a wide capacity range.
Model Firm #1 - A very small single~plant lime firm with
production entirely from low capacity vertical kilns.
Kilns: 4 vertical kilns rated at 15 tons/day (TPD)
capacity each.
Plant capacity: 60 TPD.
Annual costs of control: $2,500.
Assuming the industry preferred operating rate of 92
percent for FY 1976, and 300 producing days per year,
production of this plant would be 16,550 tons of lime.
Annual cost per ton of production = $0.15.
Model Firm #2 - A medium-sized, single-plant firm with
production entirely from a rotary kiln.
Kiln: 1 rotary kiln rated at 200 TPD capacity.
Annual costs of control: $33,000.
Annual production: 55,200 tons.
Annual cost per ton of production: $0.60.
Model Firm #3 - A medium-sized, single plant firm with
capacity comparable to Model Firm #2, but utilizing
modern vertical kilns.
Kilns: 2 vertical kilns rated at 100 TPD capacity each.
Plant capacity: 200 TPD.
Annual costs of control: $12,600.
Annual production: 55,200 tons.
Annual cost per ton of production: $0.23
IV-133
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Model Firm 14 - A large, single-plant firm with produc-
tion from both high capacity rotary kilns and modern
vertical kilns.
Kilns: 2 rotary kilns rated at 400 TPD capacity each.
2 vertical kilns rated at 125 TPD capacity each.
Plant capacity: 1,050 TPD.
Annual costs of control: $151,800.
Annual production: 289,800 tons.
Annual cost per ton of production: $0.52.
Model Firm #5 - A large, multi-plant firm with production
primarily from high capacity rotary kilns.
Kilns: Plant #1: 1 rotary kiln rated at 300 TPD capacity.
Plant #2: 1 rotary kiln rated at 350 TPD capacity.
1 rotary kiln rated at 500 TPD capacity.
2 rotary kilns rated at 250 TPD capacity
each.
Plant #3: 6 vertical kilns rated at 50 TPD
capacity each.
1 rotary kiln rated at 400 TPD capacity.
Firm capacity: 2,350 TPD.
Annual costs of control: $355,400.
Annual production: 648,600 tons.
Annual cost per ton of capacity = $0.55.
c. Demand Elasticity and Cost Shifting
Based on available information, there seems little reason
to believe that costs of particulate emission control can be
passed on to buyers of lime. The overall market for lime has
been increasing in recent years and in most applications there
exists no suitable substitutes at anywhere near comparable
prices. Lime has faced competition or replacement from the
products in a few markets, primarily agricultural and con-
struction users, however, and price increases would almost
certainly weaken lime's competitive position in these markets.
The exceptions to this may be in cases of isolated producers
who are not faced with competition in their immediate marketing
areas. Competition in the industry is characterized as very
severe, and it seems unlikely that a producer will increase
IV-134
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his price in the face of competition from other producers in
the marketing area who are not faced with control costs. This
condition of forced absorption of costs is most likely to
occur in those areas with a large number of producers, many
of whom are not in the 298 metropolitan areas.
Lime is both a raw material input to manufacturing
processes and a final product. It is possible, then, that in
the latter case, some reduced demand may result from a price
increase, aside from the losses due to substitute availability.
It is generally true that costs per ton of production
decrease as the operating ratio increases, and that economies
of scale usually insure that larger plants have lower unit
costs than smaller plants. It is estimated that for 1964,
the range of manufacturing costs for a short ton of quicklime
is from a minimum of $6.05 to a maximum of $16.25. This would
imply that the profitability range is also quite wide.
Estimates reveal that the highest annual control costs
per unit of production will be experienced by plants with
very small (less than 15 TPD capacity) vertical kilns, but
that plants with larger vertical kilns (15 TPD and over) will
experience the lowest annual control costs per unit of output.
Except at the very low end of the rotary capacity scale
(100-175 TPD), rotary kiln annual control cost per unit of
output is almost constant.
In some marketing areas, the existing competitive struc-
ture may no longer hold, since some firms will not face
control at all and others may find their competitive positions
improved in relation to other controlled firms that experience
higher unit control costs. A firm may find its marketing area
expanded or contracted as a result of the imposition of controls.
d. Effect on the Industry
The imposition of controls on particulate emissions may
have a number of short-and-long-range effects on the lime
indus try.
One immediate effect is likely to be a reduction in
industry capacity as very small vertical kilns facing high
IV-135
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control costs are abandoned. The number of open market firms
may be further reduced by the closure of marginally operating
plants of any size, which cannot absorb the costs of control
equipment. To compensate for the loss of this capacity, pro-
duction will be increased from the larger kilns and the industry
operating ratio will increase. Firms which had been operating
close to capacity may launch an expansion program as a result
of lost capacity.
A second effect of control may be a renewed interest
in the use of vertical kilns. The lower relative costs
associated with controlling the large vertical kilns coupled
with their excellent thermal properties and lower investment
costs may make them more desirable in some applications. It
may be that the trend toward high capacity rotary kilns will
be slowed somewhat.
A third effect on the industry could be an increased
emphasis on applied research in an attempt to recoup the
costs of control by lowering other production costs.
The open market lime industry may benefit somewhat by
the imposition of control costs. Captive lime plants have
always been a problem to open market firms and each year
captive production has increased, representing 35-40 percent
of total lime produced. The added production cost of emission
control may make captive production of lime less desirable for
those industries needing large amounts of lime - most notably
steel and pulp and paper. More of those firms buying open
market lime may continue to do so than would have been the
case before the addition of control costs. Further, a situa-
tion can be hypothesized in which a captive lime producer may,
when faced with control costs, choose to reduce or discontinue
entirely the manufacture of lime and begin purchasing from open
market producers.
Control costs will add momentum to the current trend
toward larger plants. Increased costs of labor, fuel and
equipment have made it more economical to operate on a large
scale, and the additional burden of controlling emissions
will make economies of scale even more important.
IV-136
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K. Petroleum Refining and Storage
1. Introduction
Three processes in petroleum refining have been identified
as sources of pollutant emissions. These are storage of crude oil
or refined products, combustion processes, and catalyst regeneration.
In addition, significant emissions are released by certain bulk
storage tanks where petroleum products are stored for distribution.
The analysis in this section is limited to the nature, control, and
costs of these four sources.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
At a refinery, both crude oil and refined products, especially
gasoline, tend to give off hydrocarbon emissions due to evaporation
while being held in storage tanks and in transfer. In addition,
significant hydrocarbon emissions result from the operation of
catalytic crackers. For the 199 refineries identified as being
within the 298 metropolitan areas in 1967, it is estimated that
these hydrocarbon emissions amounted to approximately 810,000 tons
in that year taking into account existing carbon monoxide boilers
on catalytic crackers and assuming that 75 percent of all refinery
tanks were controlled by floating conservation roofs and submerged
fill lines. If this level of control were maintained, it is
estimated that industry growth would cause emissions from this
source to increase to 996,000 tons per year in Fiscal Year 1976.
Installation of floating roofs on all refinery tanks within the
298 metropolitan areas and installing carbon monoxide boilers
where needed would reduce Fiscal Year 1976 emissions to 529,000
tons, the maximum control effectiveness (87 percent) feasible
with present technology.
Sulfur oxide emissions from hydrogen sulfide combustion
operations in refineries are best controlled by use of sulfur
recovery plants. The available data indicate that 67 of the 199
refineries had sulfur plants in 1967. Thus, the 199 plants emitted
1,750,000 tons of sulfur oxides per year and it is estimated that
industry growth would increase this to 2,150,000 tons by Fiscal
Year 1976 with the same 37 percent level of control. Installation
IV-137
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of sulfur plants on all refineries subject to regulation could
reduce the Fiscal Year 1976 emissions of sulfur oxides to 1,270,000
tons per year, which is a 62 percent level of control. The remaining
sulfur oxide emissions result from operations involving the combustion
of natural gas and/or fuel oils for process purposes. These are not
generally amenable to control.
Regeneration of the catalysts used in fluid catalytic cracking
units results in emission of particulates and carbon monoxide. Catalyst
fines are entrained in the off-gasses from the regenerator. Some of
these are collected and returned by normal process equipment, but an
estimated 0.10 pounds of particulates per ton of catalyst processed
is emitted in the absence of air pollution control equipment. Instal-
lation of electrostatic precipitators provides the maximum control now
available. In 1967, the regenerators in the refineries in the metropol-
itan areas emitted an estimated 80,000 tons of particulates at an average
industry control level of 67 percent. Normal growth of the industry would
increase this to 98,300 tons by Fiscal Year 1976. Installation of pre-
cipitators in all plants would reduce Fiscal Year 1976 emissions to
30,700 tons-
Carbon monoxide in the exit gas of regenerators was controlled by
use of a carbon monoxide boiler in 70 refineries in the 298 metropolitan
areas in 1967, but there was still an estimated 5,300,000 tons of carbon
monoxide emissions in that year (47 percent controlled). The carbon
monoxide boiler burns the carbon monoxide into carbon dioxide and pro-
vides a substantial source of heat for process use, in addition to
controlling pollution. Installed in all the subject refineries they
would control all but a negligible amount of carbon monoxide emissions.
Without this control, it is estimated that carbon monoxide emissions
would increase to 6,620,000 tons per year in FY 1976.
Within the complex system for wholesale distribution of petroleum
products around the country, there are approximately 15,000 storage plants
located within the 298 metropolitan areas. The storage tanks in these
plants are potential sources of hydrocarbon emissions if uncontrolled.
All storage tanks in California and approximately 75 percent of the
remainder in the United States were controlled by use of floating roofs.
IV-138
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Emissions from the uncontrolled tanks in metropolitan areas were
estimated at 600,000 tons of hydrocarbons in 1967, projected to
grow to 738,000 tons per year by Fiscal Year 1976. Installation
of floating roofs on all uncontrolled tanks could reduce the
Fiscal Year 1976 emissions to approximately 320,000 tons per year.
By Fiscal Year 1976, the investment requirement for petroleum
refining will be $162.0 million and the annual cost will be $7.1
million. With these expenditures, emission control levels can be
expected to be about 90 percent for particulates, 62 percent for
sulfur oxides, 95 percent for carbon monoxide and 87 percent for
hydorcarbons.
With the installation of floating roofs that practically elimi-
nate evaporation, the annual cost of the petroleum storage industry
is considered negligible. By fiscal Year 1976, the investment
requirement will be $1,082.0 million. The associated hydrocarbon
emission control levels approximate 63 percent in 1967 and would
be about 86 percent in Fiscal Year 1976.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
a. Petroleum Refining
1) Crude Oil and Gasoline Storage
The total crude oil storage capacity for each refinery
was based on a 24.4-day refinery supply, and gasoline
storage capacity was based on 25 days production [Ref. 25].
A model tank size of 80 thousand barrels was selected, and
the total storage capacity in each region (based on refinery
capacities) was divided by 80 thousand to determine the
equivalent number of model tanks in the 298 metropolitan
areas. The fractional capacity remaining after accounting
for all the model tanks was costed as a separate item and
added to the model plant costs. Three-fourths of these
tanks were assumed already to have floating roofs and sub-
merged fill lines; therefore, no further control was required.
Since the cost for converting to a floating roof tank and
installing submerged filling techniques was considerably
less than installing a new tank, it was assumed that all
tanks would be converted and not replaced.
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Figure IV-20 presents the data used to determine tank
conversion costs. The tank size of 80 thousand barrels was
chosen as the average based on talks with various knowledge-
able people [Refs. 47 and 48] and personal observation of
refinery tank farms. Operating and maintenance costs were
not determined since these are low and are usually equal
to or less than the value of the recovered gasoline and
crude oil.
Emissions of hydrocarbons result from refinery activities
including crude oil storage, gasoline storage, and gasoline
transfer. The emission factors and percent control attain-
able with current technology is shown in Table IV-46.
*
Table IV-46. - PETROLEUM STORAGE EMISSION FACTORS
Receptacle
Tank
Tank Vehicle
Description and Controls
Fixed roof, w/vapor recovery
Fixed roof, w.o. vapor
recovery, splash fill
Fixed roof, w.o. vapor
recovery, submerge fill
Conservation, w/vapor
recovery
Conservation, w.o. vapor
recovery
w/vapor recovery
w.o. vapor recovery splash
fill
w.o. vapor recovery submerge
fill
Emissions
Breathing
Loss
Ctons/yr/
1000 bbls)
-0-
F = 8.5
a
F = 8.5
a
-0-
F, - 0.87
a
-0-
-0-
-0-
Working Loss
Ctons/1000 bbls)
-0-
F, = 0.242
D
F = 0.152
e
-0-
-0-
-0-
F - 0.172
c
Ff = 0.102
All emission factors are from Ref. 14 except where emission factor
is listed as zero (-0-), such factor is the result of independent engineering
analysis.
IV-140
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150
o
o
o
w
o
o
T3
0)
100
M
d
50
50
100
150
200
Tank Capacity (10 bbl.)
Fig. IV-20. Installed Cost of Floating Roofs on Petroleum
Storage Tanks.
IV-141
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In determining current emissions, the following assumptions
were made for each refinery:
a) Three-fourths of all crude oil storage tanks are
controlled [Ref. 14].
b) Three-fourths of all gasoline storage tanks are
controlled [Ref. 14].
c) One-half of all gasoline transfer operations are
controlled [Ref. 14].
d) All gasoline produced is transferred to refinery
storage tanks.
e) Thirteen percent of gasoline is transferred to
bulk plants by pipeline.
f) All gasoline storage facilities are utilized to
60 percent of capacity.
g) Gasoline production is 51 percent of crude oil
input.
h) All storage facilities in California are fully
controlled.
2) Sulfur Recovery Plants
Sulfur oxide emissions were controlled by installing
sulfur recovery plants at those refineries which did not
already have them. The size of the sulfur recovery plants
was based on each refinery's capacity and on estimated
sulfur oxide emissions.
Figure IV-21 presents sulfur recovery plant costs
based on information obtained from References 49,50, and
51. Existing sulfur plant locations were also obtained
from these references.
Since specific data on the composition of a refinery's
crude oil or its exact processing techniques were not avail-
able, a general sulfur dioxide emission factor of 50 tons
per 100 thousand barrels of crude oil throughput was used
[Ref. 52]. Variations in this emission factor were made
based on crude oil sulfur content. Thus, in the Gulf Coast
and California areas, this factor was reduced by 6 percent;
on the East Coast it was increased by 42 percent; and it
IV-142
-------
800
700^—
600 I—
500 I—
o
o
o
ID
0
u
400 I—
3001
200
0
20
40 60 80 100
Plant Capacity (tons sulfur per day)
Fig. IV-21. Sulfur Recovery Plant Costs,
IV-143
-------
was not changed for the balance of the country. Only 58
percent of this emission is amenable to recovery in a
sulfur plant [Ref. 53]. Since operation of sulfur plants
smaller than 4 tons per day is not economically feasible,
the smaller refineries (sulfur dioxide emissions less than
13.8 tons per day) were not included in the cost estimates.
3) Catalyst Regenerators
To meet the particulate regulation, only fluid catalytic
cracking (FCC) units larger than 10 thousand barrels per day
required additional controls. All smaller FCC units and all
Thermofor (TCC) and Houdriflow (HCC) catalytic cracking units
can meet the regulations with existing controls. In addition,
all FCC units requiring control were costed separately, and
the total metropolitan area cost was simply the sum of the
FCC control costs within that area. Control costs were
based on using a high-efficiency electrostatic precipitator;
operating and maintenance costs were based on the size of
the unit; and a 20 percent capital plus depreciation charge
was used to derive the annual costs.
For controlling carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions,
the cost of a carbon monoxide (CO) boiler was estimated for
each FCC unit. The HCC units located in the 298 areas
already have CO boilers, and TCC units with their lower
CO emissions are not generally amenable to control with
a CO boiler and were not included in the cost estimate.
Only 50 percent of the capital investment for these boilers
was charged as an air pollution control cost since steam is
generated in these units for inplant purposes [Ref. 54].
Annual charges were also not included as an air pollution
cost since they are a general plant cost.
CO boiler costs were estimated according to the heat
content of the exit gas stream and the available boiler
cost data [Refs. 55 and 56]. Locations of existing CO
boilers, when known, were taken into account. However,
on a nationwide basis, approximately 25 boilers could not
be located.
IV-144
-------
Sulfur dioxide is also emitted at concentrations in
the 500-1000 ppm range, but these emissions are currently
not controlled since it is clawed that no economical means
exist for reducing this emission.
Precipitator costs were based on the gas flow rate
leaving the catalyst regenerator. Based on limited data
[Refs. 15, 55, and 57], the following relationship between
barrels of total feed and exit gas rate was determined:
f 2830 acfm
= 1000 bbl/day X feed rate
-------
o
o
o
100
80
CO
o
tfl
3
C
a
cd
4-1
O
60
40
20
I
I
200
250
300 350
Installed Costs ($1000)
400
450
20
40
60
80 100 120
Total Feed (1000 bbl/day)
140
160
180
200
Fig. IV-22. Annual and Installed Costs for Electrostatic Precipltators.
-------
1,400
1,200
o
o
o
4J
CO
0
u
•o
a)
H
H
td
4J
CO
c
1,000
8,00
c
0)
o
>>
u
-------
Uncontrolled emissions of CO from FCC units were
based on 5.6 tons of CO per 1000 barrels total feed
[Ref. 58]. Uncontrolled emissions from Thermofor units
were based on 1.2 tons of CO per 1000 barrels total feed
[Ref. 58]. There are no significant CO or hydrocarbon
emissions from Houdriflow units since they are all
presently controlled. In all cases units were assumed
to operate 360 days per year. CO and hydrocarbon emissions
from controlled units were assumed to be zero.
Uncontrolled HC emissions from fluid units were based
on 180 pounds HC per 1000 barrels total feed and those
from Thermofor units were based on 57 pounds HC per 1000
barrels total feed [Ref. 58]. These figures can be con-
verted to 32.4 and 10.3 tons HC per year per 1000 barrels
total daily feed, respectively. In all cases, emissions
from controlled units were assumed to be zero.
b. Petroleum Products and Storage
Costs for converting fixed-roof storage tanks to floating
roof tanks are shown in Figure IV-24. Costs for submerged fill
techniques were not readily available; however, these techniques
usually require only a modified nozzle on the hose used to fill
tank trucks, and a length of pipe attached to the inside of the
tank for submerged tank filling; the costs for such are minimal.
Complete gasoline emission loading systems utilizing vapor recovery
would, of course, cost much more.
The factors used to determine emission from bulk gasoline
storage are presented in Table IV-46.
Transfer losses were based on ten full turnovers in tank
contents per year, which was estimated by dividing total volume
of gasoline sold by total gasoline storage capacity. To determine
total metropolitan area emissions, three-fourths of all tanks
were assumed to have floating roofs, and one-half of all transfer
operations used submerged fill techniques {Ref. 14].
While the cost for converting a specific sized, fixed-roof
gasoline storage tank to a floating roof tank were fairly well
known, the distribution of tank sizes within any area was not
IV-14 8
-------
20
o
o
o
15
01
o
u
d
o
•H
CO
(-1
tt)
>
c
o
u
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tank Capacity (10 Gallons)
Fig. IV-24. Cost for Converting Fixed-Roof Gasoline Storage Tanks
to Floating Roof Tanks.
IV-149
-------
known. A model tank approach was therefore used to estimate
tank conversion costs for the various areas. The model tank
size selected was 290 thousand gallons based on the fact that
an average bulk gasoline storage facility has a capacity of
2.9 million gallons, assuming 10 turnovers per year. This was
calculated using the present estimated national capacity of
8.8 billion gallons and approximately 30 thousand storage
facilities. Seventy-five percent of all gasoline storage
tanks were assumed to be presently controlled except for
California which has 100 percent control.
The cost for converting a model-sized tank with a capacity
of 290 thousand gallons from a fixed-roof to a floating roof
unit was estimated to be $16 thousand as shown in Figure IV-24.
Costs for smaller sized tanks were also taken from this figure
and were used to estimate the costs for the remaining storage
capacity not accounted for by an even number of model tanks.
Thus, in any given area, the average capacity of each estab-
lishment was determined (total area capacity [Ref. 59] divided
by number of establishments {Ref. 59]); the equivalent number
of model tanks within each average establishment was then
obtained (average capacity divided by 290 thousand gallons)
and costed at $16 thousand each; the remaining capacity was then
costed as a separate item and added to the cost of the model
plants. This total cost was then multiplied by one-fourth of
the number of establishments to arrive at the total area cost;
this takes into account the estimate that 75 percent are already
controlled.
It was assumed that all plants would prefer converting
their uncontrolled tanks to floating roof units to the alterna^
tive of installing new tanks. The cost for installing submerged
filling equipment was included in the cost of converting the
tank.
Annualized costs were not included since the amount of
gasoline saved will usually more than cover the annualized
expenses incurred in converting the tank.
IV-150
-------
4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Analysis of refinery emissions and control equipment was, in
almost all cases, based on data for each refinery involved. Control
costs have been estimated on a less rigorous basis as indicated
below, but are considered representative of actual cost expectations.
Because the total annualized cost is not estimated to be large
enough to influence prices, no analysis of market patterns is presented.
5. Industry Structure
Nearly all bulk storage plants are owned by producers of
petroleum products. Although approximately 256 firms are listed
as petroleum refiners, the bulk of the industry is concentrated in
30 to 35 firms. Of these, 16 are fully integrated international
corporations making up the so-called "large majors" of the industry.
Another eight firms may be classed as "small majors" and are also
fully integrated. The remainder of the firms in the industry are
somewhat smaller and either not fully integrated or operate in a
limited market.
Petroleum is an oligopolistic industry characterized by sharp
retail competition that usually concentrates on competitive adver-
tising at the retail level, but experiences frequent price wars as
well. In its purchases of crude oil from independent producers, it
is much less likely to compete on price.
The entire industry is subject to foreign competition, but at
present this is minimized through quotas under the oil import
program. The effect of the quota system is to effectively set a
base price higher than would probably be set were unlimited imports
permitted.
Statistics concerning the petroleum industry will be found in
Tables IV-47 and IV-48.
Table IV-47. - 1967 STATISTICS ON THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY
United States
Number of Plants
Capacity (Millions of bbls.)
Production (Millions of bbls.)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of dollars)
256
4,210
3,580
20.29
Metropolitan Areas
199
3,620
2,720
15.41
IV-151
-------
Table IV-48. - 1967 STATISTICS ON THE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND STORAGE INDUSTRY
-
_.- — "" '
United States Metropolitan Areas
Number of Plants 29,664 14,998
Capacity (Millions of bbls.) 182 129
Production (Throughput- 1,840 1,290
Millions of bbls.) 1,840
Value of Shipments
(Billions of dollars) 22.50
Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Cost Factors
Floating roofs for refinery tanks are estimated to require
an investment of approximately $53,000 each, based on a typical
tank size assumed to be 80,000 barrels capacity. Since this
control reduces vapor loss by more than 90 percent, it results
in preventing the loss of a valuable product. This saving more
than offsets the total annualized cost of control. The same is
true for distributor's storage tanks, except that the investment
per tank is calculated to be only $16,000 for a typical tank of
6,900 barrels capacity.
Sulfur recovery plants vary in cost depending upon size,
which is a function of the daily quantity and sulfur content of
crude oil refined. For those refineries not listed as having
sulfur recovery plants in 1967, this cost was calculated on the
basis of plant size necessary for the listed capacity of the
refinery and its estimated sulfur oxide emissions. Sulfur recovery
plants of four tons per day capacity or larger were considered
economically feasible, requiring investment ranging from slightly
over $100,000 for four tons capacity to approximately $630,000
at 100 tons capacity. Annual cost for sulfur recovery plants was
estimated as 20 percent of investment after allowance for the
value of sulfur produced. The market value of sulfur is, of course,
subject to change if large additional supplies are marketed. However,
since it appears that the sulfur recovery plants now in use at
petroleum refineries are operated at or above the breakeven point,
it is assumed for this analysis that additional plants could
produce revenues at least equal to annual operating costs.
IV-152
-------
Electrostatic precipitators for control of particulate
emissions from catalyst regenerators on fluid catalytic cracking
units vary in cost depending on size. It is estimated that the
average refinery would invest approximately $565,000 for each
precipitator. The total annualized cost per precipitator is
estimated to average $92,500.
Carbon monoxide boilers to control carbon monoxide and
hydrocarbon emissions from catalyst regenerators were estimated
on the basis of the heat content of the gas stream for each
affected refinery and the price of boilers. The average invest-
ment required would be approximately $3 million per boiler, of
which 50 percent is charged to air pollution control, since the
steam generated may also be considered a part of the normal
operating process of the refinery. Similarly, the annualized
cost may properly be considered to be production cost rather
than cost of pollution control.
b. Aggregate Industry Costs
For the petroleum industry as a whole, installation of
the controls specified in this analysis would require, by the
end of Fiscal Year 1976, a total investment of approximately
$1,242 million. Given the assumptions stated above, annual cost
to the industry would, however, amount to only an estimated
$7 million per year upon completion of installation of controls
in Fiscal Year 1976.
c. Two Model Firms as Examples of Economic Impact of Control
Costs
Two hypothetical petroleum companies may be used to illus-
trate the impact of the investment requirements and annual costs
described above.
Model Firm A
Description: A fully integrated national producer, operating
ten refineries, of which eight are within 298
metropolitan areas. Total crude oil refining
capacity, 877,000 b/cd. Gasoline production,
52.6 percent of crude oil. Capacity utiliza-
tion, 88.6 percent. Gross revenue, 1967,
$7,860 million. Net income, 1967, $640 million.
IV-153
-------
Air Pollution Control:
Equipment Number Investment Annual Cost
At refinery:
Carbon monoxide boiler 4 $ 6,000,000
Sulfur plant 5 1,310,000 $262,000
Storage tank roofs 53 2,810,000
Electrostatic precipitators 4 2,260,000 370,000
At distribution points:
Storage tank roofs 2,924 $46.800.000
$59,180,000 $632,000
Model Firm B
Description: A small independent partially integrated firm,
operating one refinery located in a metropolitan
area. Total crude oil refining capacity, 53,000
b/cd. Gasoline production, 51 percent of crude oil
Capacity utilization, 85 percent. Gross revenue
1967, $57 million. Net income, 1967, $11 million.
Air Pollution Control:
Equipment Number Investment Annual Cost
At refinery:
Carbon monoxide boiler 1 $1,500,000
Sulfur plant 1 140,000 $ 28,000
Storage tank roofs 18 288,000
Electrostatic precipitators 1 565,000 92,500
At distribution points:
Storage tank roofs 160 $2,560,000 _
$5,053,000 $120,500
d. Impact on the Industry
If the total annualized cost of air pollution control for
the petroleum industry, as estimated here, were added to the
price of the estimated gasoline production in Fiscal Year 1976,
it would increase that price by approximately $0.0021 per
barrel ($7 million * 3,300 million barrels). Costs of this
magnitude are not likely to have a visible effect upon the
final prices of petroleum products, nor are they large enough
to significantly reduce the profits of the 199 refiners
involved. Much more significant is the magnitude of the
IV-154
-------
investment involved. It appears that this industry will be
required to invest $1.2 billion by Fiscal Year 1976. At the
same time, it appears that there will be a substantial excess
of demand for petroleum products and producers will be under
pressure to expand their exploration expenditures and increase
production capacity. Some companies may find it difficult
to raise the capital essential to their total investment program.
IV-155
-------
Primary and Secondary Nonferrous Metallurgy
1. Introduction
This section deals with firms engaged in the production of four
nonferrous metals—aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc—by primary reduc-
tion from the ore and by secondary scrap processing. These might be
considered as four separate industries except that many of the firms
produce more than one metal and the products are directly competitive
for many uses. Until recently, the primary aluminum industry has been
almost entirely separate from the others, but the last few years have
seen the beginning of what appears to be a trend towards further
integration of the sectors of this industry group.
Engineering, market, and cost data are discussed separately where
appropriate, and the economic impact of control costs on firms and the
industry analyzed within the interconnected economic framework of
the industry.
2. Sources of Emissions
The smelting and refining processes used in the primary production
of all four metals involve emissions of particulates, sulfur oxides, and
in the case of lead smelting, lead. In addition, fluorides are emitted
by the electrolytic cells used to reduce alumina; control of this
pollutant to the specified standard results in control of the other
pollutants to levels exceeding the stipulated standards in primary alu-
minum production. The melting of scrap and refining and alloying pro-
cesses employed by secondary producers are sources of particulate emis-
sions. These result primarily from the various contaminants in the
scrap, such as paint, insulation, oil, and dirt.
3. Emissions and Costs of Control
a. Primary Aluminum Emissions and Controls
It is estimated that emissions from primary aluminum
plants at a 90 percent level of control in 1967 were 6,000
tons of particulates and 8,200 tons of fluoride, both gaseous
and particulate. At the same level of controls, there would
be 8,000 tons of particulates and 12,200 tons of fl-uorides by
Fiscal Year 1976.
There are three types of electrolytic cells used in pro-
ducing aluminum; prebaked, vertical spike soderberg, and
horizontal spike soderberg. It has been determined that the
control technique utilized by the industry in 1967 was to vent
IV-156
-------
individual cell emissions to primary cyclones and simple wet
scrubbers, yielding overall control efficiencies of 90 per-
cent for both particulates and fluorides. To meet the appli-
cable standards (Appendix II) a combination of control systems
utilizing more efficient individual cell control systems plus
new cell-room control systems was assumed. Engineering analysis
indicates that the most effective cell control equipment would
be that shown in Table ry^A9 iRef. 61] .
TABLE IV-49. - CELL CONTROL EQUIPMENT
Cell Type
Control Equipment
Removal
Efficiency
Prebaked
Vertical Spike
Soderberg
Horizontal Spike
Soderberg
Fabric Filter-Precoated
with Alumina
Electrostatic Precipitator
+ 2 Scrubbers in Series
Floating Bed Scrubbers
94 Percent; Gaseous F
>99 Percent; All
Particulates
>99 Percent; Gaseous F
>99 Percent; All
Particulates
95 Percent; Total F
99 Percent; All
Particulates
Design of the new control system assumed herein xasrald
include new and more effective hoods for each cell. Approxi-
mately 90 percent of the total pollutant emissions can be
captured with improved hoods and ducted to the new control
equipment specified. It is assumed that 10 percent of the
emissions will still escape into the cell room and be carried
by the cell room ventilation system to a wet scrubber, where
90 percent removal will be accomplished. The overall efficiency
of the combined system would be 98 percent removal of both
particulates and fluorides, which meets applicable standards
(Appendix II). Resultant estimates of the FY 1976 annual
emissions for the aluminum industry with these controls in
place are 1,700 tons of particulates and 2,300 tons of fluorides.
IV-157
-------
b. Primary Copper Emissions and Controls
The 1967 level of control for sulfur oxide emissions from
primary copper smelters is estimated to have been 25 percent,
resulting in release of an estimated total of 2,140,000 tons
of sulfur oxides for the 298 metropolitan areas. By Fiscal
Year 1976, this would rise to 2,380,000 tons if no further
controls were applied. Analysis indicates that the addition
of an acid plant in smelters not now operating them, and the
addition of lime scrubbers on the tail gas from all acid
plants, would achieve the maximum removal of sulfur oxides
from smelter gases practical with present technology. This
would reduce emissions for Fiscal Year 1976 to an estimated
227,000 tons for the copper smelters in the metropolitan
areas subject to control, equal to 94 percent removal efficiency.
c. Primary Lead Emissions and Controls
Primary lead smelters in the 298 metropolitan areas were
estimated to have emitted 200,000 tons of sui'fur oxides in 1967,
representing control of 32 percent of potential emissions.
In addition, 5,540 tons of lead was emitted with a level of
control of 96 percent. Estimated growth of production would
increase sulfur oxide emissions to 269,500 tons and lead
emissions to 7,900 tons by Fiscal Year 1976 without further
controls. Addition of acid plants at refineries not now having
them and at new refineries could reduce the Fiscal Year 1976
emissions to 17,200 tons of sulfur oxides and 7,900 tons of
lead, equal to 96 percent control.
<*• Primary Zinc
The pattern for primary zinc smelters is similar to that
of lead. As a result of high level controls effective in
smelters using acid plants in 1967, it is estimated that 51
percent of the potential sulfur oxide emissions were controlled.
The remaining smelters emitted an estimated 416,000 tons of
sulfur oxides and this would increase to 508,000 tons by
Fiscal Year 1976 if the same level of control were maintained.
If all lead smelters in the metropolitan areas treated their
IV-158
-------
smelter gases in acid plants, sulfur oxide emissions in Fiscal
Year 1976 would be 76,700 tons, a 93 percent level of control.
Further reduction of these emissions would be prohibitively
expensive.
e. Secondary Nonferrous Emissions and Controls
Secondary producers of aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc
in the 298 metropolitan areas are estimated to have emitted
9,800 tons of particulates and 14,500 tons of lead in 1967,
with approximately half the plants controlled effectively at
95 percent, the average control for the industry therefore
being about 48 percent. At this same control level, emissions
would grow to 14,800 tons of particulates and 22,000 tons of
lead by Fiscal Year 1976. High energy wet scrubbers, elec-
trostatic precipitators, and fabric filters were used, where
appropriate, in this industry analysis, with all three methods
achieving 95 percent or better control. Installation of
equivalent procedures in the uncontrolled plants would reduce
emissions to 2,900 tons of particulates and 2,200 tons of
lead in Fiscal Year 1976.
f. Control Costs
Implementation of the control plans discussed above would
result in a total investment requirement of $393.1 million;
primary aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc requirements would
be 223.3, 87.0, 16.2, and 4.7 million dollars, respectively,
and secondary nonferrous would be $61.9 million. Annual costs
in Fiscal Year 1976 would be as follows: primary aluminum,
$75.8 million; primary copper, $42.0 million; primary lead,
$7.1 million; primary zinc, $2.2 million; and secondary non-
ferrous, $21.8 million—a total annual cost of $148.9 million.
Engineering Basis of the Analysis
a. Primary Nonferrous
1) Primary Aluminum
The costs of controlling the emissions from the three
types of aluminum reduction cells are shown in Tables IV-50
through IV-52. Table IV-50 presents the costs of the equip-
ment designed to control the cell emissions from prebaked
and horizontal spike soderberg cells. Table IV-51 presents
the costs of the scrubbers designed to control the cell room
IV-159
-------
TABLE IV-50. -
COSTS OF CELL CONTROL SYSTEMS - PREBAKED AND
HORIZONTAL SPIKE SODERBERG
Plant Capacity
(103 tons Al/Year)
50
100
150
200
250
Prebaked Cells
Installed
($10 b)
1.3
2.8
3.6
5.0
6.0
Annual
C$io b)
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.6
Horizontal
Spike Soderberg
Installed
($10 b)
2.0
3.9
5.8
7.5
9.6
Annual
($10 b)
0.7
1.3
2.0
2.5
3.4
TABLE IV-51. - COSTS OF CELL ROOM CONTROL EQUIPMENT - PREBAKED
AND HORIZONTAL SPIKE SODERBERG
Plant Capacity
(103 tons Al/Year)
50
100
150
200
250
Prebaked and Horizontal Spike Soderberg
Installed
($10b)
2.5
4.9
6.4
9.6
12.4
Annual
($10 b)
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.6
4.7
IV-160
-------
emissions from these two cell types. Table IV-52 presents
the combined costs of cell plus cell room control systems
for vertical spike soderberg aluminum reduction cells
[Ref. 28].
Emissions for aluminum reduction cells were based upon
the uncontrolled emission rates shown in Table IV-5.3.
TABLE IV-52. - COSTS OF COMBINED CELL PLUS CELL ROOM
CONTROL SYSTEMS - VERTICAL' SPIKE SODERBERG
Plant Capacity
(103 tons Al/Year)
50
100
150
200
250
Vertical Spike Soderberg
Installed
($106)
3.9
7.7
11.5
15.2
19.3
Annual
($io6)
1.3
2.5
3.8
4.8
6.3
Table IV-53. - UNCONTROLLED EMISSION RATES FOR ALUMINUM
REDUCTION CELLS
Cell Type
Prebaked
Horizontal Spike Soderberg
Vertical Spike Soderberg
Total Particulates
(Ibs/ton Al)
55
140
80
Total Fluorides
(Ibs/ton Al)
80
80
80
Source: M. J. McGraw. Draft Report, "Air Pollutant Emission
Factors." NAPCA, August 1970.
IV-161
-------
2) Primary Copper. Lead, and Zinc
Obtaining and analyzing air pollution control costs for
these primary metal industries was limited to the primary
smelting processes only. The refining steps were not con-
sidered a problem from the point of view of particulate or
S02 emissions fRef. 60J. In addition, particulate emissions
resulting from primary smelting operations are consistently
controlled to levels in excess of 95 percent. Therefore, the
resulting cost analysis focused on the control of S0_ from
primary smelting operations. The primary metallurgical
processes analyzed in the smelting operations for each metal
are shown in Table IV-54.
TABLE IV-54. - METALLURGICAL PROCESSES FOR COPPER, LEAD, AND ZINC
Metal
Primary Smelting Processe
si/
Copper
Lead
Zinc
or
Roaster-reverberatory furnace - converter
or
Reverberatory furnace-converter
Sintering - blast furnace-
Roaster—
or
Roaster - sintering^'
— The analysis was limited to these process systems because they
represent the systems present in the study areas. There are other
possible configurations for each metal.
21
— S0~ emissions negligible,
3/
— Followed by a usually well controlled electrolytic reduction step.
Based upon data developed in the McKee report [Ref. 61],
a model plant approach was adopted as the basis of the cost
analyses. The model plants are presented in Table IV-55.
IV-162
-------
TABLE IV-55. - PRIMARY SMELTING - MODEL PLANTS
Metal
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Processes
Roaster & Converter
Converter Only
Reverberatory Furnace
Gas Stream to Lime
Scrubbing Plant
Sinter Machine
Roaster
Roaster & Sinter
Machine
Model Plants
Gas Volume
(1,000 scfm)
9()i/
13 O2-/
55^or 180^
145^/or 21(£/
50
50
20-
S02 Concentration
(percent by volume)
5. 5i/
4>02/
O.l-'or 1.5-/
0.4-^r l.O^/
5.0
8
8-
— Representative when smelting operation includes roaster, reverberatory
furnace and converter.
21
— Representative when smelting operation includes only reverberatory
furnace and converter.
3/
— It appears that when smelting process includes roasting and sintering
the off-gas from the sintering operation contains less than 1,000 ppm; hence,
only the off-gas from the roasting operation was considered.
The use of these models requires further explanation.
Information was obtained on the presence or absence of acid
conversion facilities at each plant location in the study
areas {Ref. 62], Therefore, the cost estimating methodology,
which is fully discussed in the next section, was based upon
the addition of acid conversion plants where none now exist
plus wet lime scrubbing systems, where reasonable, to reduce
IV-16 3
-------
S0» concentration to economically feasible limits; the 500
ppm standard cannot be reasonably met.
Copper smelting plants within the study areas use either
reverberatory furnace-converter smelting systems or roaster-
reverberatory furnace-converter systems. With the first
process, only converter off-gases are amenable to acid plant
conversion of SCL— and the resulting combined gas stream
from the reverberatory furnace and acid plant tail-gas must
be further treated in a wet lime scrubber. In the second
copper smelting configuration, combined roaster and converter
off-gases are sent to an acid conversion plant and the combined
tail-gas and reverberatory furnace off-gas stream must then be
sent to the secondary scrubber.
In lead smelting operations, only sinter machine off-gases
must be treated in an acid plant. The blast furnace operations
which take place in series with the sintering step emit negli-
gible S0». It is not considered reasonable to further treat
the acid plant tail-gas.—
In zinc smelting operations, only the roasting process
results in serious S0_ emissions. The off-gases should be
treated in an acid conversion plant to obtain effective control.
Again, it is not considered reasonable to further treat the
acid plant tail-gas.
Costs for copper, lead, and zinc smelters were based on
the costs for building and operating acid conversion plants
in locations where there were none and for building and
operating wet lime scrubbing systems where applicable.
Capital and operating cost relationships for these facilities
were obtained from the McKee report [Ref. 61] and are pre-
sented in Figures IV-25 to IV-29.
Sulfur oxide emissions were based upon the emission
factors shown in Table IV-56.
147
— The criterion is 3 percent or greater S02 concentration (see Table IV-55).
— The resultant SO- concentration should be less than 0.1 percent.
IV-164
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c
o
•H
•H
s
en
o
o
ex
CO
u
T3
0)
•u
cfl
S
100
200 300
Total Sulfur Equivalent in Feed Gas
(short tons per day)
Percent sulfur dioxide in feed gas.
Source: Systems Study for Control of Emissions in the Primary
Nonferrous Smelting Industry. San Francisco, California:
Arthur G. McKee and Company, June 1969.
Ftg. IV-Z5. Capital Costs for the Contact Sulfuric Acid Process.
IV-165
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3000
o
o
o
CO
o
o
a
•H
(-1
0)
ex
o
CO
c
13
01
4-1
td
6
•H
4-1
CO
w
2000
1500
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
I I I I
T T
10
20 30 40
70 100
200 300
Total Sulfur Equivalent in Feed Gas
(short tons per day)
*
Percent sulfur dioxide in feed gas.
Source: SystemsStudy for Control of Emissions in the
Primary Nonferrous Smelting Industry. San
Francisco, California: Arthur G. McKee and
Company, June 1969.
Fig. IV-26 • Annual Operating Costs for Contact Sulfuric
Acid Process.
IV-166
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Scrubbing and
Waste Treatm
50 70 100 200 300 500 700 1000
Sulfur Equivalent in Off-gas (short tons per day)
Source: Systems Study for Control of Emissions in the Primary
Nonferrous Smelting Industry. San Francisco, California:
Arthur G. McKee and Company, June 1969.
Fig. IV-27. Equipment Costs for Lime Wet-Scrubbing Process,
IV-167
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CO
cfl
f 100
M-l '
M-l
o
CO
o
u
00
c
-H
-------
Cfl
cfl
oo
i I
14-1
20
15
IQ
1% SOx
9% SOx
50 70 100 200 300 500 700 1000
Sulfur Equivalent in Off-gas (short tons per day)
Source: Systems Study for Control of Emissions in the Primary
Nonferrous Smelting Industry. San Francisco, California:
Arthur G. McKee and Company, June 1969.
Fig. IV-29. Operating Costs - Scrubbing and Waste-Treating Section
of Lime Wet-Scrubbing Process at 100% of Capacity.
IV-169
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TABLE IV-56. - SULFUR OXIDE EMISSION RATES
Metal
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Emission Rate
(Ibs/ton Charge)
1250
660
530
Source: " M. J. Mcgraw. A Draft Report, "Air Pollutant
Emission Factors." NAPCA, August 1970.
b. Secondary Nonferrous
The processes of the secondary nonferrous metals industry
considered in this analysis were copper, brass, and bronze
melting, secondary aluminum melting, secondary zinc melting, and
lead refining. Data obtained from a number of sources were used
to identify secondary nonferrous metallurgical plants in the 298
metropolitan areas. Secondary aluminum plant locations were
obtained [Ref. 63], and secondary zinc plants were identified
[Ref. 64]. Data from Reference 64, supplemented with information
from the Bureau of Mines [Ref. 25], were used to compile lists
of secondary copper and lead plants in the areas. The emissions
from the secondary nonferrous metals industry are particulates
in the form of dust, fume, and smoke [Ref. 15]. Uncontrolled
emission rates for these processes are shown in Table IV-57.
According to a recent survey [Ref. 65], 51 percent of all
metal plants control pollutants; this percentage was assumed
for the secondary nonferrous metals industry. Plants con-
trolling were further assumed to control at 95 percent
efficiency since the equipment normally used to control emissions
in this industry includes high energy wet scrubbers, electro-
static precipitators, and fabric filters iRef. 66J . The
resulting average industry level of control was 48.5 percent.
The following data were not used in this analysis, nor were
they readily available: process size, gas volume, gas stream
temperature, annual hours of operation, and detailed information
IV-170
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TABLE IV-57. - UNCONTROLLED EMISSION RATES FROM SECONDARY
NONFERROUS METALS INDUSTRY
Metal
Emission Rate
(Ib/ton metal produced)
Aluminum
Copper, Brass, Bronze
Lead
Zinc
7.5
40
110
15
Source: Reference 14.
on control systems. Fortunately, the approach taken in esti-
mating the cost of emission controls in this industry did not
require such data since costs per ton of production were
available from a recent survey performed by the Department of
Commerce [Ref. 66]. Because process size data could not be
obtained, it was not possible to determine the efficiency needed
to comply with the process weight rate standard. Accordingly,
no assumptions as to specific types of control equipment were
made, except that current practices which achieve efficiencies
of approximately 95 percent will be continued.
Plant capacities for copper, lead, and zinc were estimated
indirectly. Production data, for the "Nation were obtained
[Refs. 25 and 67] and peak monthly output was assumed to approxi-
mate capacity. Because of the lack of additional information,
the assumed capacity was apportioned to each area according to
the number of plants in each. The average plant size for each
metal was estimated by dividing national capacity by the number
of plants in the Nation.
Cost data were abstracted from a publication of the Depart-
ment of Commerce [Ref. 66], which included investment and annual
costs per pound of production. Investment costs were given by
IV-171
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type of metal, and annual operating costs were given as an
average for all types of metals. Depreciation and capital
charges were added to the annual operating cost to obtain
total annual costs for each area. Unit costs are shown in
Table IV-58.
TABLE IV-58. - EMISSION CONTROL COSTS FOR SECONDARY
NONFERROUS METALLURGY
Metals
Brass,
bronze, &
copper
Aluminum
Zinc
Lead
Average Plant
Size
(tons/yr)
7,349
4,082
268
1,418
Investment Cost
($)
Eer Ib/yr
capacity
0.0095
0.0101
0.0097
0.0051
Eer plant
139,631
82,456
5,199
14,464
Annual Operating Cost
($)
Per Ib/yr
capacity
0.0012
0.0012
0.0012
0.0012
Per plant
17,638
9,797
643
2,413
Annual Operating Cost as reported does not include depreciation and
capital-related expenses.
Source: Reference 66.
5. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
The engineering and control cost data summarized elsewhere
in this report give a firm basis for estimating the costs of control
for individual firms and the total industry. Adequate financial
data on which to base the discussion of the impact of these costs
on firms and the markets are also available. However, because
IV-172
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relatively few firms are involved, hypothetical model firms have
not been used to illustrate cost impact. To avoid the impression
of specifying costs for actual individual firms, a procedure which
may involve factors not considered in this study, such as the over-
all financing program of the firm and the intricacies of its tax
position, the impact is discussed in relation to general trends and
patterns which may be expected within the industry and the markets
involved.
6. Industry Structure
The primary nonferrous metals industries are highly concen-
trated, with three or four firms producing more than half of the
annual production of each metal. There were only eight primary
aluminum, 11 primary copper, six primary lead, and seven primary
zinc firms identified in the United States in 1967. The companies
are large, stable, and in most years very profitable. Their
market power is limited to some extent by vigorous foreign compe-
tition and, for some firms at least, by substantial competition
from independent fabricators of finished industrial products and
consumer goods. A large share of the market for these metals is
also found among the giant manufacturing firms, such as the
automobile companies, whose buying strength offsets any monopo-
listic power among producer firms.
The secondary nonferrous industry, on the other hand, is
composed of a large number of firms, over half of them with fewer
than 20 employees. It is estimated that perhaps as many as 10
percent of secondary nonferrous firms are operated very close to
the breakeven level. The presence of large numbers of marginal
and near-marginal firms weakens the market strength of the industry.
Pricing and production, therefore, are closely related to trends
in the primary nonferrous metals industry.
Tables IV-59 and XV-60 provide statistical data for these
industries.
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TABLE IV-59.- 1967 STATISTICS FOR PRIMARY
NONFERROUS METALLURGICAL SOURCES
Aluminum
Number of Plants
Capacity (Millions
of Tons)
Production (Millions
of Tons)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of
Dollars)
U. S.
~24
3.5
3.3
1.6
298
Areas
14
2.0
1.9
0.9
Lead
Number of Plants
Capacity (Millions
of Tons of Ore Con-
centrate
Production (Millions
of Tons)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of
Dollars)
U. S.
6
1.7
0.4
0.1
298
Areas
4
1.2
0.2
0.1
Copper
Number of Plants
Capacity (Millions
of Tons of Ore Con-
centrate)
Production (Millions
of Tons)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of
Dollars)
U. S.
19
9.3
1.2
1.1
298
Areas
10
6.5
0.9
0.8
Zinc
[ ^
Number of Plants
Capacity (Millions
of Tons)
Production (Millions
of Tons)
Value of Shipments
(Billions of
Dollars)
U. S.
15
1.3
0.9
0.3
298
Areas
9
*
0.6
*
0.4
*
0.2
At this time, data are not available on two plants.
TABLE IV-60.- 1967 STATISTICS FOR SECONDARY NONFERROUS
METALLURGICAL SOURCES
Number of
Plants
Capacity
(Millions
of Tons)
Production
(Millions
of Tons)
Value of
Shipments
(Billions
of Dollars)
UNITED STATES
Muminum
170
0.90
0.82
0.39
Copper Brass
and
Bronze
117
0.50 0.52
0.40 0.48
0.46 ; 0.56
Lead
442
0.63
0.55
0.16
Zinc
159-
0.08
0.07
0.03
TOTAL
U. S.
627*
2.63
2.32
1.60
298
Areas
*
583
1.93
1.71
1.17
A number of plants produce more than one metal
IV-174
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Market
a. Aluminum
Market growth for aluminum has resulted from the devel-
opment of new aluminum-using products and intensive competition
to replace other metals in traditional uses. However,
aluminum faces strong competition from various plastics in
some uses. A major factor in the sales growth of aluminum has
been its ability to deliver a fully satisfactory substitute
for copper or steel at a significant cost reduction.
Within the industry, prices tend to be very similar from
firm to firm, since four firms in the United States and Canada
control approximately 65 percent of the world's output and
there is only a total of eight firms in the United States.
The relationship of aluminum sales to growth in the auto-
mobile and construction industries is discussed in Chapter 5
of this volume. Also important are the electrical products,
consumer durables, and container markets. In each of these
industries, aluminum has significant advantages in cost and
technical factors for certain uses, but seldom holds sufficient
advantage to forestall effective competition from other
materials. Therefore, despite its concentration, the industry
faces a highly competitive market with substantial price
sensitivity.
Exports account for approximately six percent of sales of
aluminum and this market is not expected to grow in the next
five years. Aluminum ingots are imported, but not in signi-
ficantly large quantities. The tariff of one cent per pound
on primary aluminum and two cents per pound on fabricated
shapes appears to provide significant protection to the
United States industry.
b. Copper
The market for United States copper production is very
sensitive to the world's supply and demand for copper and
to military use in the war in Vietnam. World capacity has
IV-175
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been rising faster than world demand and it appears that
this trend may continue, although conditions determining
actual supply in any year are sufficiently unpredictable
to make long range market forecasts very dependable. The
effect of the industry nationalization in Zambia, completed
in August,cannot be analyzed at this time, for instance.
Although private management is under contract to operate
Zambia's copper industry, the extent of government pressure
for changed policies remains to be determined.
The other market unknown - copper demand resulting from
military procurement - is estimated to decline substantially
by Fiscal Year 1976. Thus, both of the factors mentioned
indicate that oversupply, or at least overcapacity, may tend
to affect the market over the next five years.
A very large part of copper production goes into copper
wire, which is used in transmission of electricity and in
electrical equipment of many kinds. In parts of these markets,
copper faces sharp competition from aluminum, which also has
excellent electrical properties. Substitution of aluminum
wire for copper wire depends primarily on price, although
aluminum may have an important weight advantage, partially
offset in some uses by its greater bulk.
The copper used in automobiles, mostly for wiring and
radiators, may decline. There is talk of reducing the use
of copper wire so that when scrapped auto bodies are melted
down the resultant scrap metal will not contain copper, which
is difficult to remove. New aluminum technology seems to
have overcome the difficulties in manufacturing aluminum
radiators and copper may lose a part of this market as well.
The prospect, therefore, seems to be one of possible
oversupply of copper and stiffer competition, which may be
adjusted by changes in the relative prices of copper and
aluminum. If pollution control costs ultimately prove to be
significantly different for these two metals, there may be
further changes in the market relationship.
IV-176
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c. Lead
Six firms are engaged in primary smelting of lead in
the United States; four plants are in the metropolitan areas.
These firms also operate refineries and produce refined
lead in addition to selling lead bullion to a small number
of refiners who do not mine and smelt their own supplies.
Smelting is the most concentrated segment of the industry.
The industry is more competitive than this number might seem
to indicate, however, since smelters and refiners must deal
with a larger number of mining firms and distribute semi-
finished and finished products in competition with a much
larger number of firms processing refined lead. Another
competitive force is foreign sellers who operate extensively
in the United States market. Lead prices appear to be very
flexible, reacting quickly to changes in supply or demand.
Supply is relatively inelastic relative to price due to the
very heavy investment required in mining, smelting, and
refining.
For these integrated lead producers, smelting is only
one part of the productive process, contributing only a frac-
tion of their total profit.
d. Zinc
Of the seven firms engaged in zinc smelting in the
United States in 1967, six are also engaged in production of
one or more of the other nonferrous metals covered in this
analysis. The combination of lead and zinc is especially to
be expected since the two metals frequently occur in the same
ore. Unlike lead, zinc smelting is carried out through a
wide variety of processing combinations and as a result
production costs are more variable. Much of what has been
said about the competitiveness of lead production applies to
zinc as well, however. The industry is characterized by
competitive pricing, moderate profit on investment, and
relatively inelastic domestic supply.
IV-177
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8. Production and Price Trends
It is estimated that primary production of aluminum, copper,
and zinc in the United States will increase at the following annual
rates through Fiscal Year 1976; aluminum, 5.8 percent; copper, 1.3
percent; and zinc, 2.6 percent. This implies some increase in
utilization of productive capacities, since the annual growth rates
in capacity through Fiscal Year 1976 are estimated as: aluminum,
4.4 percent; copper, 0.2 percent; and zinc, 1.4 percent. The
estimated rate of growth in both capacity and production of primary
lead plants between 1967 and 1976 is 4.1 percent. This growth
rate for the primary lead industry reflects the actual growth for
the years 1967 to 1970 and assumes that they will approach zero
after 1970 as the market for tetraethyl lead gasoline additives
declines sharply.
Secondary producers of nonferrous metals, whose production
rates depend in part on the supply of scrap and therefore on the
consumption of primary production, are expected to increase pro-
duction at a rate of 6.1 percent per year through Fiscal Year 1976,
while increasing capacity at 6.6 percent per year.
The relative changes in the prices of metals explain in part
the expected relative growth patterns. The rise of the index of
copper prices from 110 in 1965 to 146 in 1968, compared to the
index for aluminum prices which stood at 97 in 1965 and rose only
to 102 in 1968, indicates the increased price advantage gained
for aluminum over those years.
Aluminum prices should be firm through Fiscal Year 1976 as
demand continues to grow, with increased growth in the container
field being especially important. Even without aluminum's dis-
advantage of a higher control cost, copper probably will continue
to lose ground to aluminum in the electrical field and in some other
industries, for example automobile radiators. Most brass and bronze
markets will probably change little. It is unlikely, therefore, that
copper prices would continue the upward trend of the last few years.
Prices of lead and zinc may be expected to remain fairly steady
through Fiscal Year 1976. Uses of lead alloys have been growing
in a wide variety of applications, but lead for batteries has grown
IV-178
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more slowly than automobile production. This reflects increased
battery life, although most of the improved technology in this
field appears to have been introduced and the trends of automobile
and battery production may move more closely for some years.
Elimination of tetraethyl lead in gasoline, however, would elimi-
nate one-third or more of the United States lead market. If this
occurs, lead prices may decline sharply and a sizeable segment
of the secondary lead industry particularly may feel the impact.
The zinc market prospects are for slow steady growth and
stable prices.
9. Economic Impact of Control Costs
a. Control System Costs
1) Aluminum
Annual control costs for the primary aluminum
industry differ depending upon the production process
with average costs as follows: (a) prebaked, $25,32/
ton ($0.013/lb. of capacity); (b) horizontal spike soder-
berg, $31.31/ton ($0.016/lb. of capacity); (c) vertical
spike soderberg, $21.14/ton ($0.011/lb. of capacity).
The average prebaked process plant in the areas designated
for control for purposes of this study had a capacity of
just over 150,000 tons per year in 1967. The annual cost
in 1967 dollars for such a plant would be approximately
$4,000,000, reflecting the annualized cost of an investment
of $13,000,000 plus the annual operating and maintenance
cost. A similar plant using the horizontal spike soderberg
process would require a total investment in control equip-
ment of 1.2 times that for prebaked and would have total
annual costs 1.2 times as great. Such a plant using the
vertical spike soderberg process, on the other hand, would
require only three-fourths of the investment outlay and four-
fifths of the annual cost of the prebaked process plant.
An adequate level of control would be achieved in all three
plants.
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The annual costs given above make no allowance for
the recovery of materials through the control systems.
Since these systems have not yet been widely employed,
calculation of the value of recovered products is purely
hypothetical at this time. It appears, however, that
for the prebaked and, possibly, the vertical spike soderberg
processes, substantial amounts of alumina and cryolite could
be recovered in usable form. A conservative estimate of
the value of recovered product might be $1,000,000 worth
per 100,000 tons of production for the prebaked process
and approximately half that for the vertical spike
soderberg process. No significant recovery of materials
appears possible with the floating bed scrubber indicated
for the horizontal spike soderberg process. If recoveries
of this magnitude prove feasible, the result would be
that plants using prebaked cells would reduce total
operating costs by adopting air pollution control.
Plants using vertical spike soderberg cells would incur
little or no net cost for control and plants using
horizontal spike soderberg cells would be at a disadvan-
tage amounting to approximately one-half cent per pound
of aluminum produced. Since it appears that the vertical
spike soderberg process may be the most efficient, by a
small margin, of the three processes, such a cost differ-
ential could significantly affect profits for firms
dependent on the horizontal spike soderberg process.
Such a firm may have to absorb the added cost since its
competitors would have no motivation to raise prices as
a result of pollution control requirements.
Producers of secondary aluminum, in turn, face the
probability of annual control costs equal to $0.0032
per pound, or $82,500 per year for a typical plant of
just over 4,000 tons annual capacity installing the anti-
cipated controls, as noted in Section 4.e. Firms
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operating secondary aluminum production plants sell in
competition with primary producers in many markets and it
is unlikely that the price of secondary aluminum could
rise against an unchanged price for the primary metal.
It appears that some secondary producers, now operating
at a smaller scale and higher costs than the average in-
dicated, may be forced out of aluminum by merger, shift
to other metals, or by going out of business. More de-
tailed data would be necessary to estimate how many firms
may be affected in this way.
2) Copper, Lead, and Zinc
Air pollution control costs for lead and zinc
smelters have been calculated as the cost of installing
and operating a sulfuric acid plant in which the sulfur
oxide emissions are captured and turned into a saleable
by-product. In addition to adding a sulfuric acid
plant, copper smelters have also been assumed to require
a wet line scrubber system which does not yield a
saleable by-product. Industry sources indicate that at
present (1970) four of the 19 copper smelters in the
United States operate acid plants, as do two of the six
lead smelters and nine of the 15 zinc smelters. That
these plants are generally operating acid plants in
locations where they are not subject to sulfur oxide
emission limitations which would make strict control
mandatory is conclusive evidence that recovery and sale
of sulfuric acid is economically advantageous for them.
For a copper smelting plant, it is estimated that
maximum feasible control of sulfur oxide emissions will
require the installation of a contact acid plant plus a
lime scrubber. This would require an investment of
approximately $12,300,000 for the-typical plant and total
annual cost, including depreciation and interest, of
$4,500,000. Assuming that the acid plant can produce up
to 180,000 tons of sulfuric acid and that this can be
sold at a price of $14 per ton, f.o.b. the smelter (a price
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in line with the current market), by-product revenue
would approximate $2,500,000 per year. Net annual
control cost would then be approximately $1,650,000
for this plant, or $23.57 per ton ($0.012/lb.) for
70,000 tons capacity.
For a copper smelting plant with an acid plant
already in operation, maximum control would require the
addition of a secondary scrubber. It is estimated that
this would require an investment of $2,300,000 and
total annual cost of $1,370,000, with no additional
production of saleable by-products. For a 500,000 ton
capacity plant, this would mean an estimated annual cost
of $19.57 per ton ($0.0098/lb.).
Those lead and zinc smelting plants already
operating acid plants would not require further control
of emissions. Since they are presumably operating at
or above breakeven in their acid production, there is
therefore no net cost of control. Construction of a
new acid plant at the smelters not now controlling
sulfur oxide emissions would involve investment of
approximately $5,500,000 and total annual cost of
$2,500,000 for an average sized zinc plant of approxi-
mately 100,000 tons annual capacity. Sale of acid at
$14 per ton would yield revenue approximately equal to
annual cost, indicating zero net control cost.
The assumption has been made in estimating these
net control costs for copper, lead, and zinc smelters
that the sulfuric acid produced would find a market at
$14 per ton. Recently published studies [Refs. 61 and
68] of the potential market for smelter acid indicate
that this assumption is almost certainly not valid.
The volume of smelter acid involved and its location
relative to its potential market make it improbable that
more than a small fraction of the potential supply could
be sold at any price in Fiscal Year 1976.
IV-182
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The market for sulfuric acid is primarily for use
in production of fertilizer with smaller amounts used
for leaching copper ore and for processing uranium. It
should also be noted that sulfuric acid is required
in the electrolytic dissolution process for refining
zinc, explaining why so many zinc plants produce sulfuric
acid. The studies cited above indicated that less than
40 percent of the potential new acid production of
smelters located west of the Mississippi could find a
market at a price of $4 per ton, the minimum estimated
production cost. The problems and cost of shipping
acid to more distant markets would be prohibitive, it
was indicated. It may be concluded, therefore, that
primary smelters will install acid plants only to the
extent that projected revenues from the sale of acid
result in a njet control cost less than that of alterna-
tive control systems. Assuming that the annual cost of
lime scrubbing alone, without an accompanying acid
plant, is approximately half the gross annual cost of
the system specified in this analysis, annual cost for
an average copper smelter might be approximately
$3,250,000 and for a lead or zinc smelter $1,250,000
($0.003/lb. for copper; $0.0063/lb. for zinc; $0.0018/lb.
for lead).
Air pollution control costs as of 1967 for secondary
copper, lead, and zinc producers have been estimated by the
Department of Commerce [Ref. 69]. The cost estimate for a
typical secondary copper (and brass and bronze) producer
with an annual capacity of 7,340 tons was that an in-
vestment of $140,000 would be required and that total
annual cost would be $54,400 or $7.41 per ton ($0.0037/
Ib.) of capacity. Equivalent figures for a secondary
lead producer with 1,420 tons capacity were investment
of $14,500 and annual cost of $5,300 or $3.74 per ton
($0.0019/lb.). For a secondary zinc plant of 268 tons
capacity, the required investment was calculated as
$5,200 and annual cost as $1,700 or $6.27 per ton ($0.0031/lb.),
IV-183
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The added costs indicated by this analysis for some
primary producers of copper, lead, and zinc, and the
increased costs for secondary producers suggest that
some upward pressure on prices may occur. However,
foreign competition, competition from plants not subject
to control regulations, and those already meeting
emission standards, plus the realistic possibility of
excess capacity by Fiscal Year 1976, make it probable
that little if any price increase will eventuate as a
result of these cost pressures.
b. Impact on the Industry
The impact of net cost on any one primary producer is
more difficult to determine than the aggregate annual costs.
The impact depends upon the product mix, degree of horizontal
and vertical integration, the amount of metal purchased from
other producers, the percentage of their plants subject to
control regulations, the control cost for the specific pro-
duction processes used, the productivity of the processes,
the firm's market and financial strength, and many other
factors. No analysis of the impact on actual firms is given
in this report. Any attempt to do so would imply much more
detailed knowledge of the variables involved than would
generally be available to an outside observer. This section
is intended to suggest the range of possible effects which
may be felt by some firms and the industry as a whole.
For primary producers of aluminum, it appears that the
industry will be required to invest approximately $223.3 million
in the years between calendar year 1967 and Fiscal Year 1976.
By Fiscal Year 1976, the industry will be incurring total
annual" costs for control of approximately $75.8 million in
addition to an estimated $7.0 million now being spent annually
for control instituted before 1967. It is probable, however,
that much of this cost may be offset by the recovery of
valuable materials. Only the firms operating horizontal
spike soderberg cells appear to face significant net control
IV-184
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costs. The aggregate estimated annual control cost for this
sector of the industry will be approximately $26.2 million in
1976. It may be expected, therefore, that use of this production
process will tend to decline in the long run unless new technology
can offset its economic disadvantage. Some shifting into
alternative product lines or change in individual market
shares may occur, but the primary aluminum industry is not
expected to show any fundamental change in response to new
control costs, nor is the market price likely to increase.
The impact of control costs on primary producers of
copper, lead, and zinc depends primarily on the amounts
of these (and other) metals they are smelting, since it is
the smelting process for these three metals that will require
new or additional emission controls. How many of a company's
plants are already partially or completely controlled and
how many are located in metropolitan areas where additional
controls will be required will also affect the impact on a
particular company. The other prime determinant of the cost
for a firm will be the marketability of sulfuruc acid from
its existing or newly required acid plants as more smelter
acid enters the market.
Among them, the 23 firms smelting copper, lead, and zinc
may invest an estimated $107,9 million by Fiscal Year 1976 in
additional control equipment. The annualized cost of control
by that year is estimated at $51.3 million. Offsets to this
annual cost reflecting the value of the sulfuric acid produced
could be as high as $31 million, leaving a net estimated control
cost of approximately $20 million, almost entirely the cost of
secondary scrubbing in copper smelters. If the value of acid
output is assumed to be only half that used in these estimates
and if world and domestic productive capacity remain reasonably
in balance with demand, some upward pressure on price may occur.
Adjustments per pound to this pressure by Fiscal Year 1976 would
probably not exceed $.012 for copper, $0.001 for lead, and $0.003
for zinc. Price variations of this magnitude would not be enough
to cause any significant shifts in market shares or production.
IV-185
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Secondary nonferrous producers face a more difficult
situation. Overall, by Fiscal Year 1976, they may be required
to invest a total of approximately $61.9 million and by that
year annual costs for control for these firms are estimated to
total approximately $21.8 million. These producers will have no
saleable by-product with which to offset these costs. If the
assumption is correct that the price of the secondary output
cannot change significantly relative to the primary price
when there are adequate supplies available in the primary
market, it is probable that some marginal secondary producers
will be unable to continue without change. This impact would
be most severe on firms handling copper scrap and much less
for lead and zinc firms. Some firms may drop out of the
copper market and concentrate on handling larger volumes of
other metals. Considering the expanding market for secondary
metals, some very small firms may merge to gain economies of
larger scale operations. This latter course is probably in
line with a trend toward fewer and larger firms in the
industry anyway, to which air pollution control costs will
provide greater impetus.
IV-186
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M, Rubber (Tires)
1* Introduction
The industrial classification considered in this section
includes the manufacture of tires and tubes of all types for
all kinds of vehicles, the bulk of which are for automobiles,
trucks, and buses. Tubes are included because no distinction
is made between tires and tubes in statistical data.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
Air pollution emissions come from only two tire manufac-
turing processes, i.e. the tire cord dipping operation, and the
mixer which blends carbon black into the tread material.
Hydrocarbon emissions have been reported in the offgases
from the tire and dipping process. The amounts of these emissions
have not been determined although they are believed to be in such
quantities as to require control. Controls are predicated upon
industry practice and experience under the regulations of the
State of California. It is reported that a direct gas-fired after-
burner provides fully adequate control of these hydrocarbon
emissions. These have been assumed to be required in all plants
outside of California.
Approximately 80 percent of the tire plants reported use
fabric filters to control emissions of carbon black particulates
at a control level of better than 99 percent. Carbon black is
a costly material and the plants controlling these emissions do
so because the value of the material recovered more than offsets
the annual cost of control. For the 20 percent of the industry -
which was not controlling particulate emissions in 1967, it is
estimated that 1,230 tons of particulates per year were emitted.
Predicted growth of the industry would increase this amount to
an estimated 1,670 tons per year in Fiscal Year 1976. Installation
of fabric filters in these plants would reduce the estimated
Fiscal Year 1976 emissions to negligible amounts of particulates
by Fiscal Year 1976.
Installation of these controls would require an investment of
$1.92 million and a Fiscal Year 1976 annual cost of $1.35 million
for the plants located in the 298 metropolitan areas.
IV-187
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3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
At the present time, insufficient data are available to
estimate hydrocarbon emissions from tire and tube production and
only limited data are available for particulate emissions. However,
cost estimates can be based on industry practice which is to
control the carbon black with fabric filters to prevent the loss
of this valuable material. These devices will enable tire and
tube producers to meet the process weight rate regulation. After-
burners will readily meet the assumed standard of 90-percent hydro-
carbon emission control.
In 1968 there were 53 tire manufacturing plants in metropolitan
areas 1-298 with an average capacity of 20,000 units per day (UPD).—
It is estimated that a 20,000 UPD plant emits 114 tons of carbon
black per year [Refs. 70 and 71] (uncontrolled). Estimates of parti-
culate emissions were based on the assumptions that:
1) All California plants control both hydrocarbon and
carbon black emissions.
2) No plants outside California control hydrocarbon emissions.
3) 80 percent of plants outside California control carbon
black emissions.
4) Control efficiencies are 100 percent for hydrocarbon and
99 percent for carbon black.
Table IV-61 lists the controlled and uncontrolled plants based
on the above assumptions.
TABLE IV-6^. - STATUS OF EMISSION CONTROLS FOR RUBBER PLANTS
Contaminant
Hydrocarbon
Carbon Black
Control Status
Controlled
Uncontrolled
Controlled
Uncontrolled
Areas 1-298
-0-
*
52
43
9
Calif.
6
_o-
6
-0-
Includes the California plants.
Average excludes plants which manufacture off-the-road tires
only. (<100 UPD capacity) However, due to great size of these tires,
such plants are considered as average (20,000 UPD) plants for this study.
IV-188
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It was estimated that the average cord dipping operation
requires a 15,000 scfm exhaust system. For direct gas-fired systems
with no heat exchange, installed cost for a 15,000 scfm system
equals $25 thousand ± 25 percent [Ref. 72] for the average plant.
The following equation and calculations were used in
determining annual costs [Ref. 73]:
G = SI195.5 x 10~6 PHK + HF + M];
where:
S = 15,000 acfm;
P = 1" water;
H = 2,000 hours/year (50 weeks, 40 hours/week of
afterburner operation);
K = $0.011/kwh;
F = $0.00056/acfm/hr.;
M = $0.06/acfm;
thus,
G - 1.204S or:
Capital charges plus depreciation at 20 percent.
Total annual cost: $18,100/yr
5.000
$23,100
Installed cost of Orion bags with a continuous air jet cleaning
system and a capacity of about 20,000 scfm is estimated to be $20
thousand [Ref. 73], Recovery of carbon black is sufficient to
cover the annualized costs of the system. The average plant requires
a system rated at approximately 20,000 scfm.
4, Scope and Limitations of Analysis
The data necessary for detailed analysis of emissions and
control costs were not available for this analysis. Industry
experience has been used, however, to estimate the control systems
appropriate to the air pollution problems associated with.the
production of tires and tubes. The magnitude of the costs involved
appears, even after allowance for substantial possible error, not
to be large enough relative to the size of the industry and its
member firms to warrant more extensive analysis at this time.
Therefore, the discussion is limited to the estimated cost of
IV-189
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control. Since this cost is relatively small and is not expected
to affect price or profit significantly, no analysis of the
industry's market has been made.
5. Structure of the Industry
The rubber tire and the tube industry consists of 60 plants
that are located in the United States and represents 16 firms.
Fifty-four of the 60 plants, or 90 percent, are located within the
298 metropolitan areas—representative of 15 firms. United States
capacity for the industry was 1,080,000 tires and tubes per day.
In the 298 areas, capacity amounted to 1,000,000 units per day—
93 percent of the United States total. Production was 213 million
units per year for the United States and 196 million units per
year for the 298 metropolitan areas or 92 percent of United States
production. Three major firms accounted for 59 percent of United
States capacity, with all but one of their plants within the
designated control regions.
6. Economic Impact of Control Costs
Control costs were estimated, as of 1967, for a model plant
representative of the industry. This plant was described as
employing 350 persons and producing 825 thousand tires and 206 thou-
sand tubes per year. Although many plants do not produce tubes or
have a different product mix than this, it appears that costs for the
model plant represent an approximate average for the industry.
Installation of only an afterburner in a model plant of this size
would require an investment of $25,000, for which the total annual
cost would be $23,100. Investment in the fabric filter system in
addition to an afterburner for a model plant of this size would add
approximately $18,000. It appears that recovery of carbon black
will more than offset the annual cost of the fabric filter. There-
fore, no additional annual cost has been estimated. Investment in
the 80 percent of the plants adding afterburners will be approximately
$25,000, and in the 20 percent adding fabric filters and afterburners
it will be $43,000. The annual cost of $1,350,000 for these controls
will be slightly more than $0.005 for each of the 266 million tires
and tubes estimated to be produced in the metropolitan areas in
Fiscal Year 1976. Investment and annual costs of the indicated
magnitude can be absorbed within the normal operation of the firms.
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N. Sulfuric
1. Introduction
Sulfuric acid is a strong, economically priced inorganic acid
that is utilized in the production of phosphate fertilizers and
other industrial chemicals, in the purification of petroleum, in
the dyeing of fabrics, and in the pickling of steel. Greater than
90 percent of all sulfuric acid produced is by the contact process.
In this process, sulfur or pyrite is burned to form sulfur dioxide
(S02) which is then catylyzed to sulfur trioxide (SO,). The SO, is
then absorbed in weak sulfuric acid to form the concentrated products.
2. Emissions and Costs-of-Contfol
Sulfur dioxide that remains unconverted and acid mist particulates
that escape from the acid absorption tower are the pollutants for
which control costs have been developed. With only a single absorption
stage, approximately a 96 percent conversion of SO™ to SO- can be
expected. To comply with the SO™ standard, a conversion efficiency of
99.5 percent is required. This is equivalent to an overall 86 percent
removal efficiency. To accomplish this, it is assumed that plants will
install a secondary absorption tower with appropriate addition of heat
to facilitate more complete conversion of SO™. Although most plants
do control acid mist particulates to some extent, the average industry
control level of 46 percent does not meet the particulate standard.
An overall industry removal efficiency of 67 percent will be required.
To meet this standard, it is assumed that more efficient acid mist
eliminators will be installed. By Fiscal Year 1976, if these control
measures are not adopted, emissions of sulfur oxides and particulates
will reach 921 thousand tons and 90.1 thousand tons, respectively.
With the specified controls, these will be reduced to 129 thousand
tons and 55.1 thousand tons, respectively.
The investment required to implement the controls by Fiscal Year
1976 will reach $176 million and the annual cost is estimated as $41
million. This annual cost does not take into account the slightly
increased yield of sulfuric acid which will occur.
An economic impact analysis for this industry is not included in this
report. A comprehensive study is currently in preparation by APCO.
IV-191
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3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The rate of emission of tail-gas from a contact sulfuric
acid plant is determined by the concentration of SCL in the feed
stream to the SCL-to-SO. converter; this concentration is subject
to process control. Many plants take enough air into their sulfur
burner to provide adequate excess oxygen for conversion, others add
so-called "dilution air" after burning but prior to one or more
stages of the converter. To maintain plant thermal balance, it
is necessary for the S09 concentration to be in excess of about
3 percent. As the S0? concentration is increased, stack losses
of unconverted SO^ also increase. Most plants vary the SO. concen-
tration in order to vary production, but avoid concentrations
causing conversion efficiency to fall below about 96 percent.
It was assumed that 96 percent conversion is obtained with an
eight percent S02 concentration to the converter and that the actual
tail-gas rate is thus about 74 acfm Cat 150 F) per ton-per-day
(tpd) plant capacity.
The concentration of S0_ in the tail-gas from a contact sul-
furic acid plant operating at 8 percent S09 concentration to the
converter and 96 percent conversion efficiency is fixed at about
3500 ppm. This figure was assumed to represent average operations
for the industry and agrees with literature, industrial, and APCO
sources as representative of present-day operations. The assumed
SO- standard of 500 ppm thus requires an 86-percent reduction in
the present average emissions.
With the exception of oleum production (sulfuric acid containing
excess S0_), acid mist emissions from contact sulfuric acid plants
are less subject to process control variation than are S0? emissions.
Acid mists arise from two independent sources: (1) moisture-SO,
reactions within and outside of the process equipment and (2) liquid
sulfuric acid entrainment in exhaust from the S0_ absorber. The
IV-192
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moisture-S03 reactions include reactions of SO with residual moisture
in the dried process air, moisture arising from the oxidation of
hydrocarbon impurities in the sulfur, and atmospheric moisture that
contacts the tail-gas exiting the stack. The moisture-SO_ sources
depend on the operation of the drier and whether or not oleum is
being manufactured. Fine acid or SO mists are formed after the con-
verter when either moisture reacts with SO- or the SO- dew-point
o 0
(50 C = 122 F) is reached. Both types of mists pass through the
•absorber with little removal and thence through the stack. If S0_
mists are emitted, they react with atmospheric moisture to produce
acid mists.
For this report, a value of 16 mg mist per scfm of tail-gas was
assumed. This value is somewhat higher than the average reported
in Reference 74 but is in line with the more recent data reported
in Reference 17. The particulate emission standards are the process
weight rate standards. Because combustion air is excluded, the
weight rate factor is (32 + 18) / 98 = 0.51, i.e., 0.51 pounds of
raw materials yield 1.00 pound of product. The required efficiency
for particulate control ranges from 43 percent for a 50 tpd plant
to 93 percent for a 5000 tpd plant.
The basis for control of S0« emissions was that of improving
process yield, but because very high (about 99.5 percent) overall
SO--to-SO, conversions were required to meet the 500 ppm standard,
cost estimating was limited to the double absorption method. The
basis chosen for estimating the cost of acid mist control was
utilization of glass-fiber mist eliminators capable of removing
100 percent of particles greater than 3 microns and about 80 percent
of particles less than 1/2 micron. Reference 74 gives limited data
indicating that mist particles may be assumed to be such that
adequate control will result. These devices were assumed to
operate with 6W to 8" w.g. pressure drop.
IV-193
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Sulfuric acid plants were reported by location and capacity
[Ref. 75]. The controls selected were second absorption towers in
the acid-making process and additional acid mist eliminators in the
exhaust streams, where necessary. Some plants need another catalyst
bed; however, such would be an investment in production equipment.
Costs were calculated assuming one process stream per plant,
since no plant was reported to have a capacity larger than the known
maximum process stream size. The cost of adding a second tower was
included in the estimated control cost, but the cost of another
catalyst bed was assumed to be compensated for by the increased
production efficiency. Cost parameters for a second absorption
tower were based on data from Chemical Engineering Progress
[Ref. 76J, which gives costs for a new plant of 1000 tons per day
production using either single or double absorption. The difference
in costs was multiplied by 2 to allow for modification of existing
equipment, and then scaled to other plant sizes based on the cost
being proportional to capacity to the 0.6 power. Cost parameters
for mist eliminators were based on data from the Monsanto Chemical
Company (Brinks Mist Eliminators), Costs were calculated for each
plant by capacity and then aggregated for the 298 metropolitan
areas. These costs are presented in Tables IV-62 and IV-63.
TABLE IV-62. - SULFURIC ACID EMISSION CONTROL COSTS: DOUBLE ABSORPTION
Plant Size
(1007o H SO tons /day)
50
100
200
500
1000
5000
Costs
($1000)
Investment
120
185
280
485
760
2080
Annua 1
26.0
40.0
64.0
113.0
191.0
664.0
IV-194
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TABLE IV-63. - SULFURIC ACID EMISSION CONTROL'COSTS: MIST ELIMINATOR*
Plant Size
(1007c H2S04, tons/day)
50
100
200
500
1000
5000
Costs
($1000)
Investment
4.5
9.5
19.5
43.8
82.5
375.0
Annua 1
0.9
1.9
3.9
8.8
16.5
75.0
Brink Mist Eliminator, Type H-V or S-C.
4. Industry Structure
In 1967 there were 213 plants with a total capacity of 38.7
million tons of sulfuric acid in the United States. Production
mounted to 28.8 million tons. Within the 298 metropolitan areas
there were 180 plants with a total capacity of 32.9 million tons.
These plants produced 24.5 million tons of sulfuric acid.
0. Varnish
1. Introduction
Varnish is one product group produced by the paint industry.
This industry also manufactures and distributes paints (in paste
and ready-mixed form), lacquers, enamels, and shellac; putties and
caulking compounds; wood fillers and sealers; paint and varnish
removers; paint brush cleaners, and allied paint products.
IV-195
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'Technical and statistical literature dealing with the paint
industry is often not clear as to the technical definition of
"varnish" as opposed to other product classifications. Generally,
varnish is an unpigmented protective coating of natural or snythetic
resins dissolved in a volatile oil for use on wood or sometimes metal.
Like almost all paint industry products, varnish is manufactured using
a process where the proper amounts of ingredients are mixed together
in a batch and then packaged. Varnish is unique in that it is cooked
in the manufacturing process. However, like paint, varnish cures
through polymerization by reaction of the binder with oxygen in the
air after evaporation of the solvent. In contrast, lacquers cure
merely by evaporation of the solvent, forming the film. While varnish
is usually unpigmented, producing a clear coating, it may also be
pigmented. It may also be used occasionally as a base in making
paint.
2. Emissions and Costs of Control
Varnish must be cooked during production, which results in the
evaporative emission of hydrocarbons. Air pollution control to 90 -
95 percent efficiency can be attained using direct-fired afterburners.
All varnish plants in California were assumed to be controlled,
while only about 20 percent of the plants located elsewhere were
assumed to be controlled. The overall national level of controls
was estimated to be 18 percent. Emissions for 1967 were estimated
by using an emission factor of four percent of throughput. Hydro-
carbon emissions were thus estimated to be 2,200 tons per year for
1967 in the 298 metropolitan areas. Implementation of the Clean Air
Act would require an initial investment of $790,000 and an annual
cost of $0.95 million. Emissions would be reduced to approximately
300 tons per year in Fiscal Year 1976.
3. Engineering Basis of the Analysis
The cost of a direct-fired afterburner system serving two
varnish cookers varies from about $2,000 to $3,000 depending on
the type of venting system and the exact type of afterburner
[Refs. 77-79]. Exit gas rates on the order of 350 acfm to about
1,000 acfm are normally encountered. More than one varnish cooker
is usually used at a plant, and for the purposes of this report,
IV-196
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a step-wise increase in cost was used as the manufacturing capacity
of an establishment increased. This cost versus size relationship
is shown in Figure IV-30.
Operation and maintenance costs, assuming gas stream input and
output tempreatures of 500 and 1200° F, respectively, were based on
the following equation [Ref. 15]:
where:
S[195.5 x 10~6PHK + HF + M]
= acfm, 600 acfm for up to 250 gal tank, and 1200 acfm
for 250-1000 gal tank;
P = 1" water;
H = 2400 hours/year (240 days at 10 hrs/day);
K = $/kwh;
^F.j = $0.0027/acfm/hr (0.03 cfm fuel/acfm exit gas) [Ref.15],
fuel cost = $0.0015/ft3;
F2= $0.0015/acfm/hr, fuel cost = $.00085/ft3;
F3= $0.0009/acfm/hr, fuel cost = $.00050/ft3;
M = $0.06/acfm.
The various fuel costs (F.) were based on average gas rates for
different parts of the country [Ref. 80]. Using these fuel costs,
the annualized cost factors (including 20 percent depreciation and
capital charges) presented in Table IV-64 were obtained.
TABLE IV-64. - CAPACITY VS. ANNUALIZED COST FACTORS
Capacity
(gal)
0-250
250-1000
Annualized Cost Factors
($)
East Coast,
Northwest, Hawaii
(Fi)
4390
8705
Midwest
(F?)
2650
5225
Southwest
-------
15
f
o
o
o
g
13
0)
cn
e
M
10
500
1,000
2,000
Plant Capacity (gallons)
3,000
Fig. IV-30. Installed Cost for Direct-fired Afterburner for Varnish Plant.
-------
Emissions for 1967 were estimated by using an emission factor of 4
percent of throughput [Ref. 14] and assuming 20 percent of the plants
were already controlled. Fully controlled emission estimates were based
on all plants being controlled with a hydrocarbon removal efficiency of
90 percent.
Due to the varied types of varnish plants,1 a model plant approach
was used to determine control costs. Plant names, locations, and numbers
of employees for plants producing varnish were.extracted from a Dun
and Bradstreet listing. Area varnish-making capacity was estimated
by relating regional employment to the ratio of national production of
varnish to national employment in the industry. The control costs for
the model plant were based on a production rate of 250 gallons per cooker
and on a direct-fired afterburner (without heat exchange) control system.
A step-wise increase in control costs based on as many as four tanks
venting into a single control system was used. Any plant larger than one
thousand gallons (4 cookers at 250 gal. each), therefore, required at
least two control systems.
Twenty percent of the plants throughout the country were assumed
to have adequate existing controls and all plants in California were assumed
to be adequately controlled.
The average size of the plants within a region was obtained by first
dividing the annual regional varnish manufacturing capacity by 240 days
per year and then dividing this daily capacity by the, number of establish-
ments. Where one or two plants in a region were extremely large, as indi-
cated by their employment, they were handled separately, i.e., not averaged
in with the smaller plants. Only plants with more than 2 employees were
included in the cost analysis.
The cost for the average plant (indicated in Figure IV-31) was multi-
plied by 0.8 (eighty percent of the plants were assumed uncontrolled.)
Costs for very large plants, were estimated as separate items and added
to the cost of the average plants,
Annualized costs included operating and maintenance costs and 20
percent of capital investment. Variation in fuel cost was taken into
account as previously shown in Table IV-64.
IV-199
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4. Scope and Limitations of Analysis
Because of the large number of small firms producing varnish,
data on plant location is incomplete. Detailed data on plant
capacities and production are also incomplete and were estimated
from industry totals by applying known relationships to data on
employment by plant and industry totals. Statistics on varnish or
resins produced by heat reaction in 1967 (or any other year)
apparently do not exist either among government or industrial
sources. The problem is further compounded by the fact that some
products that are called varnish are not varnish (although they may
have been in the past) but are more properly called lacquers.
Electrical insulating varnish is an example of a major product of
this type.
Financial data by plant or firm are even more fragmentary and,
therefore, estimated industry costs may be somewhat in error. However,
the estimates given are felt to indicate the order of magnitude of
industry cost impact and to reflect a reasonable approximation of the
control cost per gallon pf product.
5. Industry Structure
One statistical source indicates that there were 220 plants
producing varnish in the United States in 1967 and 216 of these
plants were located in the 298 metropolitan areas. Estimated capacity
was 23 million gallons for the U. S. and 22 million gallons for the
metropolitan areas. Production by United States and metropolitan
area plants was estimated at 10 million and 9.6 million gallons in
1967, respectively.
6. Markets
The market for varnish is largely a function of building and
building maintenance activity; competition for sales is keen. This
results from the large number of firms that produce varnishes, large
unused production capacity, low investment requirements, a well-
known technology, and a number of very competitive substitutes.
IV-200
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Varnish, like other paint industry products is distributed
through two district channels; industry and trade. Industrial sales
are made directly by the manufacturers to industrial users for use
either in production or for maintenance. Trade sales are those made
to wholesalers and other middlemen for resale to the general public,
contractors, and other commercial accounts.
Industry sources indicate that varnish products move almost
entirely in trade sales channels. They have been almost entirely
replaced in industrial markets by other types of finishes with
superior characteristics such as faster drying and greater durability.
A similar trend is taking place in trade sales, where varnish is
receiving stiff competition from lacquer, urethane, and epoxy finishes
because of drying and durability properties. In addition, increasing
use of "prefinished" products are reducing demand for on-site finish-
ing and finishes.
Paint industry products are generally not important in world
trade since they are expensive to ship and easily produced locally.
International licensing agreements and foreign joint ventures are
common and U.S. industries are leading participants.
In 1967, paint industry exports were 10.2 million gallons valued
at $42.7 million, or 1.7 percent of all U. S. dollar shipments. Trade
sales products account for about 60 percent of the total shipped on a
volume basis. Imports were $1.6 million and included some distempers,
water pigments, stamping foils, and dyes.
7. Trends
For the decade ending in 1967, paint sales (dollars) increased at
an average annual rate of 4.7 percent as compared to 6.3 percent for
GNP and 1.4 percent for population. Volume of sales (gallons) increased
by an average of 3.4 percent per year. Future growth in the paint
industry should approximate the volume rate.
The factors limiting long-term growth in the paint industry and
sales of varnish are increasing use of products that require no paint
or less paint, and the improvement of paint products themselves. Pro-
ducts that require no paint include such materials as stainless steel,
aluminum, glass, stone and brick, Fiberglass reinforced plastics,
IV-201
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laminates, extruded or molded plastics and such surfacing materials
as wall paper, plastic films, porcelain enamels, and electroplated,
phosphated or oxidized metal films. To meet such competition, the
paint industry has developed more durable and easily applied coat-
ings resulting in lower costs per unit of surface covered.
Factory finished building materials are replacing on-site
painting which is becoming increasingly expensive. Labor now accounts
for as much as 80 percent of the total cost of on-site finishing.
Since prefinishers generally use specially formulated industrial
finishes, the trend towards prefinishing in building products is at
the expense of trade sales products such as varnish.
Varnish is not expected to share in the growth of paint industry
sales because of the competition from substitute materials, from pre-
finishing, and from other coatings. Instead, varnish is expected
eventually to be largely replaced by competitive finishes and materials
among trade customers as it has among industrial customers. Because
habits and customs are slow to change, varnish sales and production
are expected to remain approximately at present levels through fiscal
year 1976.
8. Economic Impact of Control Costs
Assuming approximately 220 firms producing varnish with production
of 23 million gallons, this analysis indicates that for the average
firm an initial capital investment of $3,600 or $0.036 per gallon of
capacity would be required. Because of the large unused capacity,
investment per gallon of product would be almost $0.08.
The total annual cost to control the varnish producing segment
of the paint industry would be $950,000 per year by Fiscal Year 1976.
This cost includes allowances for recovery of investment, interest,
taxes, fuel, labor, maintenance, and other expenses of owning and
operating the air pollution control equipment. For an estimated
Fiscal Year 1976 production of 10 million gallons, this gives an
incremental cost of almost $0.10 per gallon.
Considering the nature of competition among producers and by
substitute materials, few firms can afford cost increases of this
sort from profits nor will they be able to completely shift the
IV-202
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$0.10 per gallon increase to the consumer through price increases.
It is expected that about half this increase can be shifted; thus,
prices may be expected to rise by about $0.05 per gallon above the
level they would otherwise achieve by 1976.
It is expected that all producers in a region or market will
tend to postpone installation of control equipment as long as
possible so as to avoid incurring this cost. When regulatory
orders force compliance, most firms will act at the same time.
The action taken by firms will depend on their evaluation of their
own varnish sales, their share of the varnish market, and the
firm's expectation of customers reaction to a price increase. Marginal
varnish producers will discontinue production and will either drop
varnish from their product line or contract to buy varnish for
resale under their own label.
Any price increase will cause some buyers to switch to the wide
variety of substitutes available, hastening present trends to other
products. Since use of varnish is already declining and a price
increase will cause a further decline, the firms that install air
pollution control equipment will do so only on equipment they antici-
pate will be used regularly enough so that they can recover their
investment. As a result, the present unused capacity may be scrapped
to the maximum extent possible, and some of the currently used
capacity may also be scrapped.
If this pattern occurs, there is little reason to anticipate
financial difficulties except for those firms that are already marginal.
The paint industry as a whole is basically healthy.
IV-203
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3. C. Smallwood, Jr. Private communications, August 12, 1969.
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8. E. R. Kaiser, and J. Tolciss. "Smokeless Burning of Automobile
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Vol. 12, No. 2 (February 1962), pp. 64-73.
9. A. B. Walker. Electrostatic Precipitators. American City, September
1964.
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report of the Air Pollution Control Office, Raleigh, N. C.
11. National Academy of Engineering, "Abatement of Sulfur Oxide Emissions
from Stationary Sources." Report of a Study underway by the
Committee on Air Quality Management for the National Academy of
Engineers in execution of work with the Air Pollution Control
Office, Washington, D. C., 1970.
12. Arthur M. Squires, "The Control of SO™ from Power Stacks," Chemical
Engineering. (November 6, 1967), pp. 260-267.
13. H. E., Friedrich. "Air Pollution Control Practices and Criteria for
Hot-Mix Asphalt Paving Plants." Paper presented at the 62nd Annual
Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, New York,
June 22-26, 1969.
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14. R. L. Duprey. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors.
Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-42. Durham,
N. C.: U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, National
Center for Air Pollution Control, 1968.
15. J. A. Danielson (ed.). Air Pollution Engineering Manual. Public
Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-40. Cincinnati, Ohio:
U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1967.
16. George H. H. Schenck and Peter G. Donals. "Cement—An Industry in
Flux," Mining Engineering. (April 1967), p. 87.
17. "National Emission Standards Study,"First Draft. U.S. Dept. of
Health, Education, and Welfare, APCO, Raleigh, N. C., July 23, 1969.
18. H. R. Brown, et al. Fire and Explosion Hazards in Thermal Coal-
drying Plants. U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Mines
Report of Investigations 5198. Washington, D. C. : U.S.
Government Printing Office, February 1956.
19. E. Northcott. "Dust Abatement at Bird Coal," Mining Congress
Journal. (November 1967), pp. 29-34; 36.
20. David H. Ellis. West Virginia Air Pollution Control Commission,
Charleston, West Virginia, July 11, 1969- Private communication.
•
21. H. A. Schrecengost and M. S. Childers. Fire and Explosion Hazards
in Fluidized-bed Thermal Coal Dryers. U.S. Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Mines Information Circular 8258. Washington,
D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1965.
22. R. J. Frankel, "Economic Impact of Air and Water Pollution
on Coal Preparation." Presented at the 1968 Coal Convention,
American Mining Congress, Pittsburgh, May 5-8, 1968.
23. A. C. Stern (ed.). Air Pollution. Vol. Ill (Znded.). New York:
Academic Press, 1968.
24. Keystone Coal Buyers Manual. 1967. New York: McGraw-Hill Co., 1968.
25. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines. Bureau of Mines
Minerals Yearbook (four editions: 1964-67). Washington, D. C.:
U.S. Government Printing Office.
26. "Cement Capacity in North America," Rock Products. Vol. 72, No. 5
(May 1969), pp. 49-54.
27. "Major Process Equipment in New U.S. Cement Plants, 1960-1967,"
Rock Products. (May 1968), pp. 120-121.
28. Control Techniques for Fluoride Air Pollutants. Prepared by Sing-
master and Breyer for U.S. Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare, PHS, Consumer Protection and Environmental Health -
Service! NAPCA, Washington, D. C., February 13, 1970.
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29. U.S'. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense Services Administration,
U.S. Industrial Outlook, 1969. Washington, D. C. : U.S. Government
Printing Office, December 1968, p. 142.
30. H. Bland, Aeroglide Corporation. Private communication.
31. M. J. McGraw. "Air Pollutant Emission Factors." Draft. Department
of Health, Education, and Welfare, PHS. August, 1970.
32. The Cargill Corporation. Private communication.
33. "A Systems Analysis of Process Technology and Air Quality Technology
in the Integrated Iron and Steel Industry,"Preliminary Report.
Batelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, March 31, 1969.
34. Proceedings; The Third National Conference on Air Pollution (Washington,
D. C. - December 12-14, 1966). Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department
of Health, Education, and Welfare, (PHS), 1967.
35. Annual Statistical Report, 1967. American Iron and Steel Institute.
New York, N. Y. : American Iron and Steel Institute, 1967.
36. Systems Analysis of the Integrated Iron and Steel Industry (Appendix C),
PH22-68-65. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: Swindell-Dressier Company,
March 31, 1969.
37. R. L. Collins, et al. Cost to Industry of Compliance to National
Emission Standards. Research Triangle Park, N. C.: Research
Triangle Institute, 1969.
38. Business Week. (September 12, 1970), p. 24.
39. N. S. Lea and E. A. Christoferson, "Save Money by Stopping Air
Pollution," Chemical Engineering Progress. Volume 61, No. 11
November 1965), pp. 89-93.
40. E. L. Smith, "Sulfite Pulping and Pollution Control," Combustion.
(June 1967), pp. 42-44.
41. Systems Analysis Study of Emissions Control in the Wood Pulping
Industry; First Milestone Report. Conducted by Environmental
Engineering, Inc. and the J. E. Sirrine Co. for the National
Air Pollution Control Administration, February 10, 1969.
42. Lockwood's Directory of the Paper and Allied Trades. New York, N. Y.:
Lockwood1 (3 Trade Journal Co., Inc., 1968.
43. "Regenerated Lime - The Quiet Boom," Rock Products. (July 1968), pp.
54-60.
44. J. Sableski, Air Pollution Control Office. Private communication.
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45. C. J. Lewis and B. B. Crocker. "The Lime Industry's Problem of
Airborne Dust," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.
46. R. S. Boynton. Chemistry and Technology of Lime and Limestone. New
York: Interscience Publishers, 1966.
47. Chicago Bridge and Iron Company, June and August, 1969. Private
communication.
48. Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, August, 1969.
Private communication.
49. Grekel, et al. "Why Recover Sulfur from H S," Oil and Gas Journal.
(October 28, 1968). 2
50. E. W. Sledjeski and R. E. Maples. "Impact of Residual Sulfur Limits on
U.S. Refining," Oil and Gas Journal. (May 13, 1968), pp. 90-95.
51. HPI Construction Boxscore, Hydrocarbon Processing, June 1968.
52. F. Rohrman and J. Ludwig. "Sources of Sulfur Dioxide Pollution."
Paper No. 46e, presented at the 55th meeting of the American
Institute of Chemical Engineers, February 7-11, 1965.
53. E. Vincent, Air Pollution Control Office, July 1969. Private communi-
cation .
54. Air and Water Conservation Expenditures of the Petroleum Industries
in the U.S. New York: Crossley, S-D Surveys, Inc., August 1968.
55. Bulletin G-87A. Barberton, Ohio: Babcock and Wileox Co., 1956.
56. H. S. Bauman. Fundamentals of Cost Engineering in the Chemical Industry.
New York: Reinhold Book Corp., 1964.
57. R. P. Hangebrauck, et al. Sources of Polynuciear Hydrocarbon in the
Atmosphere. PHS Publication No. 999-AP-33. Washington, D. C. :
U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1967.
58. Atmospheric Emissions from Petroleum Refineries. No. 763. Washington,
D. C.: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, PHS, 1960.
59. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1963 Census of Business.
Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1964.
60. F. M. Alpiser. Private communication.
61. Systems Study for Control of Emissions in. the Primary Nonferrous
Smelting Industry (3 vols.). San Francisco, California: Arthur
G. McKee and Company, June 1969.
62. Norm Plaks, National Air Pollution Control Administration. Private
communication.
IV-207
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63. "Producer profiles: Summary of the major secondaries," Metals Week.
(August 18, 1968).
64. The Waste Trade Directory, 1966-67 Edition. New York, N. Y.: Atlas
Publishing Company, 1967.
65. H. F. Lund. "Industrial Mr Pollution Control Equipment Survey:
Operating Costs and Procedures." Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association. Vol. 19, No. 5 (May 1969), pp. 315-321.
66. U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Impact of Air Pollution Controls
on the Secondary Nonferrous Metals Industry. Washington, D. C.:
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1969-
67. Mr. Levin, U.S. Department of Commerce. Private communication.
68. F. A. Ferguson, T. K. Semrau, and D. R. Monti. "S02 from Smelters:
By-product Markets a Powerful Lure," Environmental Science &
Technology. Vol. 4, No. 7 (July 1970), pp. 562-568.
69. "Economic Aspects of Control of Air Quality in the Integrated Iron &
Steel Industry," Draft of Final Report to HAPCA. Battelle
Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, March 31, 1969.
70. G. R. Row. "Baghouse Filter Controls Fine Dust Particles," Plant
Engineering. (July 10, 1969), p. 70.
71. Rubber World. (February 1970), p. 59.
72. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Control Techniques
for Particulate Air Pollutants. PHS Publication No. AP-51.
Washington, D. C. NAPCA (PHS), January 1969, p. 175-
73. Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, September 15, 1969.
Private communication.
74. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Atmospheric
Emissions from Sulfuric Acid Manufacturing Process. Public
Health Service Publication No. 999-A-13. Washington, D. C.:
U.S. Government Printing Service, 1965.
75. Chemical Economics Handbook. California: Stanford Research Institute,
December 1967.
76. J. G. Kronsider. "Cost of Reducing SO Emissions," Chemical Engineering
Progress. Larry Resen, editor, vol. 64, No. 2 (November 1968),
pp. 71-74.
77. R. G. Lunche, et al. Air Pollution Engineering in Los Angeles County,
July 1, 1966, p. 30.
78. J. L. Mills, et al. "Design of Afterburners for Varnish Cookers,"
Journal of Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 10, No. 2,
(April 1960), pp. 161-168.
IV-208
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79. R. L. Chass, et al. "Contribution of Solvents to Mr Pollution and
Methods for Controlling Emissions," Journal, of Air Pollution
Control Association. Vol. 13, No. 2 (February 1963), pp. 64-72.
80. The Fuel of Fifty Cities. Report to the National Air Pollution Control
Administration. Washington, D. C.: Ernst and Ernst, November
1968.
!V-209
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APPENDIX 3C
Alternatives To The Control
Of Sulfur Oxides From
Stationary Combustion Processes
-------
APPENDIX V
Alternatives to the Control of Sulfur Oxides from Stationary
Combustion Processes
I. INTRODUCTION
r
t
V
In the second Cost of Clean Air Report [Ref. 1], it was assumed that
the control of particulate and sulfur oxides emissions from stationary
combustion sources during the period Fiscal Year 1971 through Fiscal Year
1975 would be achieved by a straightforward switching from high-sulfur
coal and high-sulfur residual fuel oil to low-sulfur residual oils.— At
the time of publication of the second report, inadequate data hampered
consideration of any other possible alternatives. In the intervening
year, however, data and information have become available on which to
view other alternatives, as well as study the reasonableness of the
fuel switch alternative previously chosen. The purpose of this appendix
is to summarize these new findings and to discuss the basis of the control
alternatives chosen in the third Cost of Clean Air Report. Finally,
although this report encompasses only 298 metropolitan areas, the concen-
tration of population and fuel consumption makes it reasonable to broaden
the discussion to the national basis. Therefore, the focus of this
appendix centers upon conclusions which can be drawn for the entire United
States.
II. PATTERNS OF FUEL CONSUMPTION
A. Coal
In 1967 the United States consumption of bituminous coal amounted
to 520 million tons. Of this amount, only 187 million tons contained
less than 1 percent sulfur. Of this 187 million tons, 48.6 million tons
were exported and 91.6 million tons were used for metallurgical coking
*J High-sulfur coal is defined as having a sulfur content of greater than
1 percent; and high-sulfur oil greater than 1.38 percent.
V-l
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purposes. Within the stationary combustion category, steam-electric
generating utilities consumed 270 million tons, industrial boilers con-
sumed 78 million tons, commercial-institutional heating plants consumed
5.2 million tons, and residential heating facilities consumed 21.9 million
tons. By 1975, it is expected that in the absence of any regulations on
allowable fuel usages,steam-electric generation would consume 430 million
tons; industrial boilers, 63 million tons; commercial-institutional heat-
ing plants, 2 million tons; and residential heating plants, 9 million tons.
It is important to notice the expected natural decline in the utilization
of coal for the latter three stationary combustion categories with an
equally noticeable rise in the amounts predicted for the utility steam-
electric generating industry. Of course, the steam-electric industry's
justification for planned increases in the utilization of coal is that coal
is the only major fuel which could, by itself, meet the cumulative energy
demands for the remainder of this century or beyond [Ref. 2J. A more
comprehensive discussion on fuels availability will be given in Section III.
B. Oil
Fuel oils presently account for 17 percent of the nation's fuel con-
sumption in terms of energy equivalents [Ref. 3]. Fuel oil may be con-
sidered as two types: distillate (No. 1, 2 and 4 oils) and residual
(No. 5 and 6 fuel oils). All distillate oils fall within the sulfur con-
tent range of 0 - 1.0 percent.
Consumption of distillate oil for the Nation in 1967 amounted to
approximately 550 million barrels. Percentage utilization for residential,
commercial-institutional, and industrial users was 82 percent, 10 percent
and 8 percent, respectively. However, the apparent trend is toward a
greater proportion of distillate oils to be used by commercial and
industrial customers.
The average sulfur content of domestic residual fuel oil is about
1.75 percent although the percentage range is very wide. Average values
for domestically produced residual fuel oils (No. 6) for various regions of
the country range from 1.36 percent in the Eastern Region to a high of
2.09 percent for the Rocky Mountain Region. Other values include 1.51
V-2
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percent for the Western Region, 1.70 percent for the Central Region, and
1.84 percent for the Southern Region [Ref. 2], Offsetting the recent
trend of domestic producers of decreasing domestic, residual fuel oils
has been an increase in the importation of this commodity from foreign
countries. In the three years from 1965 through 1967, imported residual
fuel oil increased from 267 to 345 million barrels per year. In general,
the imported residual fuel oil has higher sulfur content than domestic
due to the fact that many of the foreign crude oils have higher sulfur
content.
In 1968, 620 million barrels of residual oil were consumed in this
country. Of this, roughly 25 percent was consumed in each of the large
commercial-institutional heating plants, industrial operations, and steam-
electric utilities. The remainder was consumed by vessels, the military,
oil company usage, railroads, and others [Ref. 2], Most of the imported
residual oil is received at east coast terminals. However, some is also
received at the west coast ports and used in the immediate area.
C. Natural Gas
A total of nearly 18., 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was con-
sumed in the United States during 1967. About two-thirds of the gas is
used for industrial purposes including 2.7 trillion cubic feet for steam-
electric generation. Approximately 3 trillion cubic feet is consumed in
residential heating units and another 2 trillion for commercial-institu-
tional heating purposes. Current trends seem to indicate an increasing
desire to increase the utilization of natural gas in all stationary
combustion categories.
III. LOW-SULFUR FUEL SUPPLY PATTERNS
A. Coal
Of the 333 million tons of high-sulfur coal produced in 1967, it
is estimated that only 11 percent of this quantity could be cleaned to a
sulfur content of 1 percent or less by present pyrite washing techniques.
The estimated cost of cleaning the coal is about 80 to 90 cents per ton.
[Ref. 4]. Present methods of coal washing is limited, therefore, to
reduction of pyritic sulfur, and it can be expected to yield only a
V-3
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moderate Increase in the supplies of low-sulfur coals. In many different
types of coal, the amount of sulfur is present in almost equal pyritic and
organic fractions. Experiments with organic solvents, such as hexane,
to remove the organic sulfur indicates that costs will be prohibitive
[Ref. 4]. However, notwithstanding the sulfur content problem, coal
is by far the most abundant fossil fuel resource in this country.
Moreover, The Office of Coal Research indicates that proven coal reserves
are roughly equivalent to a 400-year supply at present rate of production.
B. Oil
Both the Bureau of Mines and Oil Import Administration indicate
that there is no appreciable surplus of residual oil production capacity
in the United States today; furthermore, domestic production of residual
fuel oil has been decreasing in this country. It is anticipated that
refiners will continue to reduce the yield of residual oil in the future.
The possibility of increased production of crude oil resulting in increased
production of the various fractions is not very promising. Except for
the Southern Lousiana fields, no significant increases in pumping is
anticipated [Ref. 5].
Even with residual oil desulfurization techniques, domestically
produced fuel oil does not appear to be a major alternative. Whatever
low-sulfur oils that can be produced and/or desulfurized will be
needed for commercial-institutional heating plants, and to some extent
for industrial operations. Therefore, residual oils are not apt to play
any major role in the solution to the sulfur dioxide problem in the
steam-electric utility industry.
Residual oil may now be imported at east coast ports without limit
for eastern consumption, but west coast imports are sharply limited by
quota. Planning is already underway to desulfurize the foreign crude
oil either at the refinery or more likely in this country. From these sources
the supply of low-sulfur content residual oil can be increased tremendously.
It appears unlikely, however, that the Oil Import Administration will per-
mit, for reasons of national security, imports into any additional regions
of the country that will substatially increase dependence of United States
power producers on imported residual oil.
V-4
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C. Natural Gas
Natural gas is an ideal fuel from the point of view of air pollution
emissions. Particulate emissions are near zero and sulfur dioxide emissions
are negligible. However, the Federal Power Commission reports that the
supply of natural gas is diminishing to critical levels in relation to
demand. On the basis of current trends, only a few years remain before
demand will outrun supply [Ref. 6].
The Commission does report on several supplementary sources of gas
which may prove feasible during the 1980's. The processes include high
B.t.u. gasified coal, liquified natural gas (LNG) imports by ocean tanker,
and Alaskan natural gas. The technical feasibility of producing pipe-
line quality gas from coal and lignite has been demonstrated in a recent
study by Bituminous Coal Research, Inc. which is covered in Reference 6;
however, the economic feasibility of producing pipeline quality gas from
coal and lignite has yet to be demonstrated on a large scale in the United
States [Ref. 6].
The transportation of LNG in specially designed ocean freighters
could potentially relieve the U. S. gas distribution industry from com-
plete dependence on U. S. and Canadian produced natural gas. The impact
of the importation of significant quantities of LNG would not be felt for
a considerable period of time. Large additions to the present ocean-
going fleet must be constructed, storage facilities of significant expense
and technological complexity must be constructed at various U. S. deep
water ports, and additions must be made to the existing natural gas pipe-
line network. Finally, the net result of LNG inputs in the future may
be simply to satisfy natural increases in the demand for natural gas.
Therefore, it may not be reasonable to consider the use of LNG as an
alternative for existing nongas-burning facilities.
The newly discovered Alaskan natural gas field will likely be one of
the world's largest. However, transportation via LNG tanker or by pipe-
line will be costly and difficult. At present, there are no immediate
prospects of exporting natural gas from Alaska to the United States. To
quote the Staff Report on Natural Gas Supply and Demand, "Alaska obviously
has excellent potential for petroleum resources. However, the financial
and manpower drains involved in developing these far north resources could
V-5
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have a retarding effect on the development of our other gas areas. Money
that might have gone into additional deep drilling, the development of an
oil shale industry, and gasification of coal, and the exploration of our
other shelf areas may now go to Alaska. The magnitude of the gas reserves
will have to be enormous and the development of a transportation system
will have to be timely in order to offset the possible detrimental effects."
IV. THE REMOVAL OF SULFUR OXIDES FROM STACK GASES
The preceding has dealt with the possibilities of limiting the amount
of sulfur in the fuel itself; this section will discuss briefly the possi-
bilities of achieving significantly reduced SO emissions by the applica-
tion of alternative hardware systems at the stack. In the past year, a
great deal of information has been written concerning this area. Most
of this information is concentrated on the control of emissions from
utility steam-electric generating plants; however, it may be equally
applicable to other large fossil fuel burning facilities. At this point
whether such application will be possible in smaller facilities is unknown.
The growing problem of atmospheric pollution by sulfur oxides has
promoted a large amount of research and development on processes to remove
this pollutant from power plant stack gases. The purpose of this section,
therefore, is to present information on each of the most promising processes
paying special attention to probable commercial availability, expected
removal efficiency, costs, by-products where applicable, and suitability
or lack of installation in existing facilities. The processes being
developed may be reasonably classified as those which yield a "throwaway"
residue and those which yield a potentially salable by-product. A technical
discussion of each process is limited because such material can be found
elsewhere in the literature.
A. Throwaway Processes
Of the throwaway processes, sufficient work has been done suggest-
ing that the dry limestone and wet limestone processes will soon become
commercially available.
The dry limestone injection process is viewed as the process which
could become the first commercially available process for sulfur oxide
control. It is also applicable to older and smaller plants which have a
V-6
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limited life. The advantages of the process include simplicity, avail-
ability of limestone in the vicinity of many power plants, and ease of
installation in existing facilities. The most significant disadvantages
include substantial increases in solid waste disposal requirements in
the plant, the necessity of high-efficiency, large-capacity electrostatic
precipitators, very poor overall S02 removal (20-50 percent), and low
efficiency of utilization of the limestone. Overall, the results of the
work done on this process may be considered very disappointing.
The limestone injection wet scrubbing process could be applicable to
new or existing power plants; however, it is best adapted for larger
facilities. The process is under intensive developmental efforts at
present, and successful commercial demonstrations and acceptance are
anticipated within one to two years. There are two variations of the
limestone wet scrubbing process. Either limestone can be injected into
the power plant boiler, or limestone or more preferably lime can be in-
jected directly into the scrubber. The latter process was developed
over 30 years ago in England; however, for a variety of reasons, modern
emphasis is on the former. Results of experimental work demonstrate
that a high degree (in excess of 90 percent) of sulfur oxide removal
can be achieved by this process. Other advantages include particulate
removals in excess of 99 percent in the scrubber thus avoiding the need
for an electrostatic precipitator, low investment costs in comparison
with any of the by-product type systems under consideration, and
significantly, the application of a well-known technology. Also note-
worthy is that the total operating costs for limestone wet scrubbing
may be lower than any of the by-product processes even when credit is
given for the sale of the various products. Disadvantages of the process
include a liquid waste sludge, a possible water pollution problem, the
necessity of reheating the off-gas, and the potential formation of scale
especially in the scrubber system.
B. By-Product Recovery Systems
Several processes for recovering sulfur from the stack gas follow-
ing combustion are at or near the demonstration level. These processes
will remove the sulfur oxide and convert it into marketable products
such as sulfuric acid and elemental sulfur. It must be noted at this
point that the potential acceptability of any of these processes is
dependent upon sale of the recovered products at reasonable prices.
V-7
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In addition, existing power plants will probably not wish to consider
installation of by-product recovery systems due to the extensive integra-
tion into total plant operation which will be required. Hence, the possible
utilization of these processes would appear more suitable for plants
under design. Of the by-product processes under consideration, the most
promising ones are the Stone and Webster/Ionics process, the Wellman Lord
process, and the Catalytic Oxidation (Cat-Ox) process.
The Stone and Webster/Ionics process will produce high purity
H SO,, H~, and 0~ as products. The process, however, must be limited to
those plants, either new or existing, which have large daily swings in
electrical output due to the large electrical requirements of the process
itself. Investment costs are projected to be about double those for wet
limestone scrubbers and the annual operating costs are dependent upon the
existence of long term markets for H SO,, H9 and 0 . This, of course,
is dependent upon plant location as well as other market factors. In
addition, a high efficiency particulate removal device will still be
required prior to the process. In any case, it is expected that possible
commercial availability would not occur before 1975.
The Wellman Lord process can produce concentrated sulfur dioxide
from power plant flue gas. The concentrated sulfur dioxide steam can
then be converted in a contact plant to sulfuric acid or in a Glaus plant
to elemental sulfur. The process is applicable to all boilers both old
and new. It seems reasonable that the concentrated SO* would be converted
to elemental sulfur since it is a more valuable by-product than acid.
However, unless additional control systems are used on the auxiliary acid
or sulfur plant, some of the original S02 captured from the power plant
flue gas will eventually be emitted to the atmosphere. The investment
cost for this process (Wellman and Lord + sulfur plant) is estimated
to be approximately 1-1/2 times that for the wet limestone system. Unless
a market is available for either the sulfur or sulfuric acid, operating
costs could run as high as twice the wet limestone operating costs. In
addition, high efficiency particulate removal is required prior to the
process. Possible commercial availability cannot be expected before the
middle of 1975.
V-8
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The Catalytic Oxidation (Cat-C>x) process consists of two basic designs.
The integrated system is to be employed with new power plants while the
"reheat" system is intended as an add-on unit for older plants. The process
removes S02 from the flue gas and converts it to a potentially salable
by-product which is approximately 80-percent sulfuric acid. The process
includes removal of all flyash from the flue gas. The process is exceed-
ingly expensive—possbily running 3 times the investment cost of wet lime-
stone scrubbing. Operating costs, assuming full credit for sale of H SO
2 4'
will probably exceed that for wet limestone scrubbing. If the sulfuric
acid cannot be sold at the market price, the annual costs are prohibitive.
In any case, commercial availability is not expected before 1975 for the
"reheat" system and the middle of 1977 for the integrated system.
V. OTHER LONGER RANGE POSSIBILITIES
At least two processes offer hope for removal of sulfur during com-
bustion. These two, the "fluidized bed" combustion process and the "molten
iron bath" combustion process, have not yet entered the development stage.
It is doubtful that they can be retrofitted into existing plants since both
require major boiler design modifications. The fluidized process is
applicable to both high sulfur coal and oil while the molten iron bath
process is applicable only for the combustion of coal. Feasibility studies
for both processes are currently underway.
Somewhat related to the molten iron bath process is the so-called MHD
power system which represents an entirely new concept in the production of
electrical energy. Description even in the simplist terms is beyond the
scope of this study; however, the process would virtually eliminate both
sulfur dioxide and particulate emissions. Work is being carried out on a
theoretical level for this process. No estimate can be given of the date
of commercial availability.
V-9
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VI. AVAILABLE ALTERNATIVES
The alternatives as well as other information which has been briefly
discussed above were carefully reviewed for the purpose of arriving at a
reasonable methodology by which emission reductions and control costs for
stationary combustion sources could be attained. Two constraints were
imposed on the decision making process: the alternative should stand a
reasonable chance of being implementable by 1976, and the alternative
should be consistent with longer range solutions to the problem.
A. Residential Heating
According to present trends, the usage of coal as a fuel for home
heating is diminishing quite rapidly giving way somewhat to the use of
distillate oil but more rapidly to the use of gas and electricity. In
some regions, use of distillate oil is giving way to natural gas and
electricity. For these reasons, the report assumes that coal use for
residential heating will decrease by "natural attrition" with the restric-
tion that no coal boiler could be replaced by another coal boiler; there-
fore, no costs to the residential component of stationary combustion
sources have been assigned as resulting from the Air Quality Act. In
other words, it is assumed that whatever changes have occurred or will
occur in the direction of lower air pollutant emissions will have occurred
without enactment of any form of air pollution legislation.
B. Commercial-Institutional Heating Plants
At present, commercial-institutional heating plants are predominantly
oil and gas burning facilities with only minimal usage of coal. Further-
more, only a small fraction of these units are presently burning a high-
sulfur fuel oil. It can also be reasonably assumed that no further facili-
ties which utilize coal or high sulfur residual fuel oil will be installed.
Therefore, the cost estimate developed is only for switching present
coal burning facilities to a low-sulfur content oil. The utilization of
hardware for the control of the sources is not considered a reasonable
alternative. Finally, it was assumed that all facilities which burn
natural gas would continue to do so. New facilities, it was assumed, would
burn low-sulfur oil or gas without the pressure of any form of air pollu-
tion legislation. Therefore, no control costs for additional sources were
computed.
V-10
-------
C, Industrial Boilers
The choice of a reasonable alternative for the control of emissions
from industrial boilers was not so straightforward. In the absence of
specific legislation establishing criteria for fuel sulfur content, many
existing industrial boilers can be expected to be coal-fired for the
foreseeable future. In addition, many would continue to burn high-sulfur
residual fuel oils. There is a trend away from building new coal burning
facilities with a preference toward increasing utilization of natural gas.
The use of hardware control of SO from coal and high-sulfur oil
burning boilers was considered. Specifically, the use of the wet lime-
stone injection process was under consideration. However, the adoption
of this alternative would have required installation of wet limestone
injection systems on a large number of relatively low B.t.u. capacity
boilers. Preliminary economic analysis of the process shows that unit
costs increase dramatically with the size of the boiler. Indeed pre-
liminary calculations have shown that a reasonable cutoff point is a
boiler size of 200 megawatts or the equivalent in terms of millions of
B.t.u. input. Only the few largest industrial boilers fall near this size
range. In addition, the large number of systems which would be required
make this alternative an unlikely choice for implementation by 1976.
It finally appeared that a choice involving a switch from coal and
high-sulfur residual oil to low-sulfur oil is probably the only feasible
control alternative available with reasonable chance for implementation
by 1976 for this source. The assumption here, of course, is that
additional quantities of low-sulfur oil will become available in the near
future. It does not appear too unreasonable that some easing of import
restrictions on low sulfur oils or high sulfur oils allowing for desulfuriz-
ing plants to be constructed in this country will occur and permit such
an alternative to be implemented. Of course, additional fuel costs on a
B.t.u. basis will be involved.
D. Utility Steam-Electric Boilers
There is no question that until about the year 2000^' there will have
to be an increasing reliance on the use of coal to supply our ever increas-
ing power requirements [Ref. 6]. To assume the "across the board" switch-
-' By that time the use of nuclear energy will equal the use of coal
after which the requirement for coal will start a downward trend.
v-li
-------
ing of coal to low-sulfur residual oil without envisioning severe
shortages of such fuels for other sources, specifically commercial-
institutional and industrial boilers, and without considering that such
a massive fuel switch might be completely unfeasible, was unacceptable.
It became fairly obvious that low-sulfur fuels, both oil and gas,
are not presently available in such large quantities and quite possibly
may be available to that extent. Even considering that approximately
10 percent of the available coal could be desulfurized to about 1 per-
3/
cent— , the resultant supply of low-sulfur fuel will still not be
adequate. Consideration of the possibility of dramatically increased
imports of residual oils into this country for power production is, at
present, not consistent with stated policy to avoid a substantial in-
crease in the dependence of U. S. power producers on imported residual
oil. Therefore, it became apparent that use of several alternatives
would be required to develop cost estimates of controlling steam-
electric boilers by 1976.
Among the hardware alternatives, only the wet and dry limestone
processes are amenable to retrofitting. Therefore, only these could be
considered for existing facilities. The application of the various re-
covery processes for the control of coal and oil burning boilers to be
built by 1976 did not seem to be an unreasonable alternative at this
time for two reasons. First, expected availability of these processes
will probably not occur until 1974 or 1975 at the very earliest, and
second, the present and near future for marketing the various by-products
does not seem to be especially bright. Therefore, recovery processes
were not considered further. Of the two throwaway processes, the wet
limestone process appears to be clearly superior at present.
In a comparison of the increase in annual costs of switching fuel
and the application of wet limestone scrubbing systems, it was found that
below a 200 megawatt plant operating at about a 17 percent load factor
a switch to a low-sulfur content fuel of the same type would be cheaper
[Ref. 7]. In addition, when analysis of available data showed that power
plants rated less than 200 megawatts consumed only 33.3 million tons of coal
3/
— Even this level may not be adequate with many cities and states setting
limits of 0.5 percent or less. Examples are New York City and the State of
New Jersey.
V-12
-------
it was concluded that a fuel switch in these smaller plants, while
assuming the application of wet limestone injection scrubbing process
for larger coal and oil burning plants, would represent a reasonable
choice of alternatives which could possibly be implementable by 1976.
After consultation with various personnel within APCO, it was finally
decided to employ this combination of alternatives as the cost estimating
methodology for this report.
VII. CONCLUSION
On the basis of current information, an across-the-board switch to
low-sulfur fuels for the purpose of sulfur dioxide abatement appears
unfeasible. Fuel-switching can be realistically anticipated for the
residential, commercial-institutional and industrial sector, with the
exception of the steam-electric utility industry. For this industry,
stack gas scrubbing plus some fuel substitution may be feasible. By
1976, it appears that only the wet limestone scrubbing systems meet
the criteria of commercial availability, economic reasonableness, and
adequate removal efficiency. In the long run, pollution abatement in
the steam-electric industry will result from increased nuclear power
generation and from other technological developments which may be available
in the period of the 1980's.
V-13
-------
LIST OF REFERENCES
1. The Cost of Clean Air. Second Report of the Secretary of Health,
Education, and Welfare to the Congress of the United States,
1969.
2. Impact of Air Pollution Regulations on Fuel Selection for Federal
Facilities. Washington, D. C.: National Academy of Science,
National Research Center, May 7, 1969, p. 33; 61.
3. Schreter, R. E., Poe, L. G., and Kuska, E. M., "Industrial
Burners Today and Tomorrow," Mechanical Engineering, June 1970.
4. National Academy of Engineering, "Abatement of Sulfur Oxide Emission
from Stationary Sources." Report of a study undertaken by the
Committee on Air Quality Management for the National Academy
of Engineers in execution of work with the Air Pollution Control
Office, Washington, D. C., 1970.
5. Private communication with the Oil Import Administration.
6. "A Staff Report oh National Gas Supply and Demand." Federal Power
Commission, Bureau of Natural Gas, Washington, D. C., September
1969.
7. John M. Dement, "Cost of Dolomite-Injection/Wet Scrubbing." Unpub-
lished report of the Air Pollution Control Office, Raleigh, N. C.,
1970.
V-14
-------
APPENDIX 3ZT
IMPACT OF THE COST OF EMISSION
CONTROLS ON THE PRICE LEVEL OF
THE US. ECONOMY
-------
Appendix VI
Impact of the Cost of Emission Controls on the Price Level
of the U. S. Economy~~'
I. INTRODUCTION
The annual costs of air pollution control are estimated for each
of the 18 industrial process sources studied (Appendix IV) and increases
in the prices of the output are projected (See Table 71-1).- These pro-
jections are based on the structure of each industry and the demand for
each industry's product. Estimates are made in this appendix of the
impact of the price increases on the economy's overall price level in
order to gain further insight as to the effect of air pollution control
on the standard of living, as reflected in the level of prices. This
appendix also examines separately the impact of those price increases
on two industries, construction and automobiles, because they consume
significant portions of the output of industries studied and because
of their importance to the economy.
In order to develop estimates of the impact of the costs of emission
control on the price level of the U. S. economy, it was assumed that the
price increases projected for the industries studied will be passed along,
by all firms purchasing the output of these industries, to final purchasers
and that the pattern of inputs for any purchasing industry will not be
affected. It was assumed also that as a result of the costs of emission
control, imports are not increased nor is production outside the metro-
politan areas encouraged relative to the production of the firms inside
the metropolitan areas. Finally, it was assumed that the distribution of
the gross national product (GNP) in Calendar Year 1975 will be similar to
the historical distribution.
II. IMPACT ON THE PRICE LEVEL FOR SPECIFIC INDUSTRIES
Using input-output relationships, it is possible to estimate the
impact of the projected subject industry price increases on the general
level of prices and ori the price level of other industries. Input-
output is a method for analyzing the interdependence among the
& Because of the large number of tables and figures in this appendix,
they have been put at the end for ease in readxng of the text.
VI-1
-------
industries or sectors of an economy. Input-output analysis uses a table
or matrix which shows for a specific point in time the distribution
of sales and purchases by each industry. In constructing an input-
output table, the output of each industry is divided into two categories:
(1) the interindustry transactions and (2) the final demand sales. The
total output of any industry can be represented by the following
equation:
n
Z X.. + C. = X. (i = 1 . . ., n),
where:
X.. = amount of output industry ±
sells to industry j,
C. = final demand for output of industry i,
X. = total output of industry i.
At this point, the table consists of cells containing the dollar
value of the interindustry transactions (X..) or final demand sales (C.)
in each cell. The table, however, is more useful when the transactions
are converted into a system of technical coefficients of production. A
technical coefficient is the ratio of input to output and can be written
as follows:
a
ij j
where:
a.. = technical coefficient,
X.. = amount of output of industry i purchased by industry j,
X. = total output of industry j.
For example, in the production of $40.031 billion of motor vehicles
and equipment in 1963, $3.453 billion of primary iron and steel was
directly consumed. The technical coefficient expressing the direct
requirement for steel by the motor vehicle industry is therefore:
3.453 = 0.0863.
40.031
In other words, to produce $1.00 worth of output of motor vehicles
required about $0.09 worth of primary iron and steel.
VI-2
-------
The final form into which the initial transactions matrix can be
transformed shows both the direct and indirect inputs from one industry
to another. For example, it was noted above that the motor vehicle
industry's direct requirement for steel is 0.0863. However, to build a
motor vehicle requires other inputs which, in turn, require steel as an
input. The technical coefficient for the rubber and miscellaneous
plastics products used by the motor vehicle industry is, for example,
0.0223, but to produce rubber requires a direct input of steel
of 0.0051. Coefficients which represent both the direct and indirect
requirements are generated by inverting the direct requirements matrix.
The resulting matrix shows the direct and indirect output of industry i
required for industry j to deliver a dollar's worth of output of final
demand. In the case of the motor vehicle industry the direct and indirect
requirements for steel are 0.2121.
Knowledge of the structure of the American economy as represented
by the direct requirements and the total requirements (direct and indirect)
coefficients may be used to evaluate the impact of the projected increases
in the prices of products of the industries in question. This can be done
because it identifies the industries which purchase the affected products
and provides a basis for estimating the price increases necessary to
maintain profit levels.
The U. S. Department of Commerce has published three input-output
tables of the U. S. economy. The most recent table, for the year 1963,
was just released. This table was expanded more than fourfold from the
previous table (1958) to about 370 separate industries which permitted
identification of most of the subject industries. Table VI-2 compares
the identification of the subject industries, both by name and standard
industrial classification (SIC) number, with the closest industry in the
input-output table. In most cases the industries are the same.
The 370 sector table was, however, found to be too unwieldy in this
application so it was reduced from computer tapes of the table to a smaller
table based on the 1958 table's classification of industries. However,
the integrity of the subject industries was preserved. What resulted,
therefore, was a table which shows the industries in detail and the
VI-3
-------
rest of the sectors in a more aggregated form, finally, the onajor
purchasers of the output of the subject industries were identified as
the industries that consumed one percent or more of the intermediate
output of each of the subject industries. There were 72 such industries.
The final input-output table is presented in Table VI-3. Three ratios are
presented in each column. The first is the portion of the output of
the subject industry purchased by the consuming industry. The second
number is the technical coefficient—that is, the portion of the industry's
total inputs which comes from the subject industries. The third is the
total requirements coefficient, reflecting the industry's direct and
indirect requirement for the output of the subject industry.
Next, an estimate of the impact of the costs of emission control
on the price level of each of the 72 industries, which purchase one per-
cent of each subject industry's output, can be derived by using the
estimated price increase for each subject industry adjusted downward by
the percent of the industry not in the metropolitan areas, and the per-
cent the subject industry is of the input-output industry,- and .multiplying
it by the total requirements coefficient. Table VI-4 shows the projected
increase in the price levels of the industries primarily affected by the
subject industries. Due to problems in identifying the grain and
petroleum storage industries in the input-output table, these industries
are excluded.
In order to estimate the impact of the projected price increases
on the general price level of the U. S. economy, each industry's contri-
bution to GNP was determined based on the distribution of final demand
presented in the 1963 input-output table. The values are shown toward
the bottom of Table VI-4. Finally, by multiplying the contribution of
each industry to GNP by the increase in the price level projected for the
industry and summing the results, an estimate of the impact on the
general level of prices is obtained. The estimate is expressed in terms
of the increase in the implicit price deflator for gross national product,
an index similar to the consumer price index. Table VI-5 shows the
estimated impact by major sector.
VI-4
-------
The primary reason for the small price increase is that only nine
of the study industries are projected to increase their prices over one
percent, and none of the increases exceed three percent. Of these nine
four have less than 55 percent of their capacity in the 298 metropolitan
areas which further reduces the impact of the price increases.
The industry most affected is construction, which accounts for 43
percent of the 0.14 percent increase. The primary contributor to the
increase in construction costs is the price increase projected for steel.
Nine percent of the steel output is purchased by the construction industry
where it accounts for two percent of the- construction industry's inputs. Also
contributing to the projected increase in construction costs are price
increases by the gray iron foundries, steam-electric power plants and the
brick and tile industry.
Manufacturing is expected to contribute 29 percent of the 0.14
percent increase,largely as a result of price increases in the motor
vehicle industry due to higher prices for steel, gray iron castings and
steam-electric power; other transportation equipment industries due to
higher steel and gray iron casting prices; and food and kindred products
industries due to higher electric and coal prices.
Transportation, communication, electric, gas and sanitary services
price increases contribute 21 percent of the projected 0.14 percent price
increase as a result of higher electric and coal prices.
Services account for the smallest portion of the 0.14 percent
increase - 7 percent, due to higher electricity prices.
III. KEY INDUSTRIES
Due to the interdependence of the economy and the specific inter-
relationships between the APCO industries and other industries
as shown, for example, in the input-output table, the effects of the
projected price increases tend to cluster in a few industries. Two of
these industries, construction and motor vehicles, have been singled
VI-5
-------
out for analysis because of their significance. These two
industries consume large percentages of the output of several of the
industries studied and are important contributors to the level of GNP.
A. Construction
1, Study Industries Affected
The following of the industries studied sell over one percent
of their intermediate output directly to the construction industry:
Paints and allied 49%
Petroleum refining related products 7%
Paving mixtures and blocks 90%
Tires and inner tubes 4%
Cement, hydraulic 42%
Brick and structural clay tile 97%
Lime 10%
Blast furnaces and steel products 10%
Electric utilities 2%
2. Review of Industry
The value of new construction put in place in 1969 was a
record $91 billion, even though new housing units started, which
are a major component of construction activity, were less than 1.5
million units for the year (see Figures VI-1 and VI-2). Both the
trend toward larger structures and the general increases in the cost
of new construction caused by inflation contributed to the record level.
The construction industry is currently characterized by rising
costs and a strong underlying demand held in check by the cost of
credit.
3. Privately Owned Construction
This component of construction activity consists of residential
and nonresidential building construction. Private.construction
represents about 70 percent of the value of new construction and
98 percent of the new housing units started.
Residential construction activity is primarily influenced by
credit conditions, the existing supply of dwellings, and the formation
of households.
VI-6
-------
There appears to be a strong underlying demand for residential
construction that has recently been dampened by the rise in interest
rates. Between 1963 and 1969 interest rates on conventional first
mortgage loans rose 31 percent (see Figure ^3). During this period,
even though the annual increase in households averaged about 880,000
per year, the rate of private housing starts fell over 100,000 (see
Figure VI-1).
The rise in interest rates is expected to taper off in the
seventies, though most analysts do not expect any significant decline
in them. The number of households is expected to increase at about
1 million per year in the seventies (see Figure VI-4). The result will
be a requirement for the construction or rehabilitation of 26 million
housing units within the next decade according to the Housing and Urban
Development Act of 1968.
It appears, therefore, that the anticipated stabilization of
interest rates, the expected increase in households, the high demoli-
tion rates of the 1960's, and the current low vacancy rates will provide
a strong underlying demand for residential construction in the seventies.
However, the outlook is dimmed somewhat by the inflation expected in
materials, labor, and land. This situation is expected to increase
the demand for lower cost housing, thereby strengthening the trend
toward multi-unit construction and mobile homes. Attempts will be
made to improve productivity in order to reduce price trends by using
industrialized methods and less on-site labor.
4. Publicly Owned Construction
Public construction consists of: housing and redevelopment,
industrial, educational and other public buildings; highways and
streets; military facilities; conservation and development; and
other public construction. The demand for publicly owned construc-
tion is not expected to be as strong as residential building pri-
marily due to the tapering off of demand for additional educational
buildings and the leveling off of the interstate highway program.
The strongest components of public construction are expected to be
at the state and local levels especially for sewer systems and water
supply facilities. There is, however, a backlog of federal military
projects deferred in the late 1960's.
VI-7
-------
5. Price Trends
Since 1960, construction has contributed disproportionately to
rising prices as shown in Figure VI-5. For example, between I960
and 1969 the implicit price deflator for GNP increased at an annual
rate of 2.2 percent. The implicit price deflator for structures
increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent during the same period.
Rising financing and land costs have been the primary sources
of the cost increase although the cost of labor has also increased,
stimulating the search for alternatives to on-site labor where labor
is less productive (see Table "VI-6) .
It appears that rising prices will continue in the construction
industry during the 1970's, due not only to the inflation expected
in the economy but also to the lack of productivity improvements in
the construction. It is anticipated, therefore, that these conditions
will stimulate the search for substitutes for any significant input
to construction whose prices are rising faster than the general
increases for all inputs.
6. Forecast of Construction Activity
The share of gross national product (GNP) represented by con-
struction has been declining since the mid 1950's, when it was about
12 percent to about 10 percent in 1967. Through the 1970's, construc-
tion is expected to maintain its share of GNP at about the present
21
10 percent level. —'
As Table VI-7 shows, the construction industry is expected to
increase to $138.5 billion by 1975 without allowing for the impact
of emission standards. However, a substantial portion of this
increase ($31 billion) is expected to be in the form of price increases.
I/
U.S. Department of Commerce, Construction Review, Vol. 15, No. 7,
(July 1969), p. 13.
VI-8
-------
7. Price Impact
Using input-output analysis, it was estimated that the
price level in construction will be about 0.6 percent higher
annually than otherwise due to price increases caused by the extra
costs to the study industries for emission control. While the
percentage increase is small, in dollar terms, the amount is fairly
large—$600 million in 1975. Assuming approximately 25 percent of this
increase was allocated to 1.5 million housing units started in
calendar year 1975, the average increase per housing unit would
be $100.
Motor Vehicles
!• Study Industries Affected
The following study industriea sell one percent or more of
their intermediate output directly to the motor vehicle industry:
Petroleum refining and related products 6%
Tires and inner tubes 24%
Blast furnaces and steel products 11%
Primary lead 1%
Electric utilities 1%
Iron and steel foundries 25%
2. Review of Industry
Motor vehicle production, with a combined output of all types
of motor vehicles of about ten million vehicles annually currently
accounts for about four percent of gross national product (GNP).
This industry has a pervasive influence on the U. S. economy not
only due to its share of GNP but also because of its linkages with
the rest of the economy.
Figures VI-7 through VI-9 show the production and registration
history of motor vehicles.
3. Automobiles
Passenger car production accounts for about 80 percent of both
the value of all new motor vehicles sold and the number of units
manufactured. Automobile production is related to the level of
disposable income, the requirement for replacement automobiles, the
increase in households, and other factors not easily quantified.
¥1-9
-------
As Figure VI-10 shows there has been a fairly stable relation-
ship between disposable income and personal consumption expenditures
on new automobiles, averaging about five percent over the last 20
years. In recent years, however, the demand for new automobiles
appears to be slackening somewhat although the reasons for the slow-
down in the sales rate are not yet discernible.
The requirement for replacement automobiles is related to the
average life of a passenger car. About eleven years is the average
life of a passenger car.
In addition to the requirement for replacement vehicles, there
are additions to the number of passenger cars registered. The primary
sources of these additions are the increase in households and the
increase in the number of families owning two or more automobiles
(see Table Vl-8) .
The result has been a fairly steady increase in b.oth the number
of automobiles per household and per capita as shown in Figure .^I-rll,
4. Trucks and Buses
The number of truck and bus sales, after remaining fairly con-
stant between the end of World War II and 1962, have been increasing
at the rate of over seven percent per year since 1962. The value of
sales has increased even faster than the number of sales due to the
increases in sales of light and heavy-duty trucks (see Table VI-9).
5. Price Trends
Measured by the Consumer Price Index, the prices of new cars
have been virtually constant since 1958 (see Figure VI-12). This index
measures the changes in the prices of new cars of a fairly fixed
specification and product mix. The actual average price per unit
has, however, been increasing steadily due to acceptance of new
equipment (e.g., air conditioning) by the customer and a shift in
demand toward more expensive body styles. It appears that this upward
trend in prices may be somewhat offset by the introduction of domestic
compacts to compete with small imported vehicles.
VI-10
-------
6. Forecast of Motor Vehicle Production
Gross auto product as a percent of GNP and personal consumption
expenditures for automobiles as a percent of disposable personal
income have both been fairly constant over the last twenty years
as was shown in Figure VI-10. Assuming that these historical rela-
tionships continue to 1975, the gross auto production at that time
will be about $44.2 billion. (See Table VI-10 for the industry
projections.)
7. Price Impact
The increase in the price level of the motor vehicle industry
was estimated at 0.5 percent. If 10 million cars and trucks are
produced, this percentage translates into an absolute dollar amount
in 1975 of $225 million—a cost per vehicle of $22.50.
VI-H
-------
TABLE VI-1.- PROJECTED PRICE INCREASES
Industry Unit Price Price and Percent Capacity
Percentage Increase in Metropolitan Area
Grain milling & handling
Elemental phosphorus
Phosphate fertilizer
Varnish
Petroleum refining
Asphalt batching
Rubber tires & tubes
Cement
Brick and tile
Lime
Steel
Primary copper
Primary lead
Primary zinc
Primary aluminum
Secondary nonferrous metals
Steam-electric
Kraft (sulfate) pulp
Gray iron foundries
Coal cleaning
$350.00/ton
$160.00/ton
$ 3.33/gal.
negligible
$ 6.00/ton
negligible
$ 40.00/thousand
negligible
$170.00/ton
$ .3823/lb.
$ .1410/ Ib.
$ .1384/lb.
$ .2498/lb.
$ -.2733/lb.
$ ,015/KWH
$122.50/ton
$189.00/ton
$ 4.40/ton
negl
$7.80/ton
$1.00/ton
$0.05
$.075/ton
negl
$1.05/thousan
$1.33/ton
$.012/lb.
negl
$.003/lb.
negl
$.001/ Ib.
$.0003/KWH
$1.26/ton
$4.91/ton
$0.05/ton
.gible
2.23%
0.63%
1.50%
1.25%
.gible
i 2.63%
0.78%
3.14%
Lgible
2.17%
.gible
0.37%
2.00%
1.03%
2.60%
1,14%
86.30
44.00
88.00
98.20
85.90
83.40
92.60
76.70
71.60
67.60
97.60
69.00
71.50
52.90
56.60
72.80
54.30
70.10
82.40
37.60
<
H
NJ
-------
TABLE VI-2. COMPARISON OF APCO AND INPUT-OUTPUT INDUSTRY IDENTIFICATION
K-»
LO
APCO Industry
1. Grain milling and handling
2. Elemental phosphorus
3. Phosphate fertilizer
4. Varnish
5. Petroleum refining
6. Asphalt batching
7. Rubber (tires and inner tubes)
8. Cement
9. Brick and tile
10. Lime
11. Iron and steel
12. Erimary copper
13. Primary lead
14. Primary zinc
15. Primary aluminum reduction
16. Secondary nonferrous metallurgical
17. Steam electric power plants
18. Kraft (sulfate) pulp
19. Grey iron foundry
20. Coal cleaning
21. Petroleum products storage
SIC NO.
2042
2819958
2819959
2871
2911
2951
3011
3241
3251
3274
3312
3331
3332
3333
3334
3341
4911
2611
3321
1211
5092
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Input-Output Model Industry
1. Prepared feeds for animals and fowls
2. Elemental phosphorus
Phosphate fertilizer
Paints and allied products
Petroleum refining and related products
Paving mixtures and blocks
Tires and inner tubes
Cement, hydraulic
Brick and structural clay tile
Lime
Blast furnaces and basic steel products
Primary copper
Primary lead
Primary zinc
Primary aluminum
Secondary nonferrous metals
Electric utilities
Pulp mills
Iron and steel foundries
Coal mining
Not identified
SIC NO.
2042
281 except
28195
2871, 2872
2851
2911, 299
2951
3011
3241
3251
3274
331
3331
3332
3333
3334
3341
491, pt. 493
2611
332
11, 12
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY
1
- 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
INDUSTRY
prepared feeds for animals & fowls
paints & allied products
petroleum refining & related products
paving mixtures & blocks
cement , hydraulic
brick & structural clay tile
blast furnaces & basic steel products
primary copper
primary lead
primary zinc
primary aluminum
secondary nonferrous metals
electric utilities
pulp mills
iron & steel foundries
0
•-.7634
-.0158
— m fii
— • uxo J-
>
•!-i -H
hJ H
1.
D
.1106
.0064
nm i
. UUJ.JL
CO
M
CJ
3
13
O
M
P.
T
.6823
.1221
n i .An
• U .L^U
0
_ nil £
• ~.U J-LO
r .0195
.0885
n£n c
.Ut>U_>
noon
" — • \J Z.£.\J
1 CO
1 1 1
r— 1 4-1
S U
a 3
•rl T3
M 0
00 M
nj a.
M rH
cu n)
rC! M
•P 3
O W
2.
D
m o/i
• U1Z4
r\ o n o
.0292
.0355
nn/ n
.0040
nnm
.uuux
T
O o /. o
. Z/4 J
TO/"/"
.1866
.3021
rt O O f^
.0329
nn T "7
.UU1/
0
i^ i c r\
.0159
•I A O O
• -. ly 38
M
c
•H
0
•H
e
rH
td
o
o
3.
D
.0108
.1556
T
.0139
1.1878
Code: 0 - Portion of the output of the industries in rows 1-20 sold to industries in columns 1-72.
D - Share of total inputs of each industry in a column provided by the industry in a row—direct require-
ments coefficient .
T - Output required directly and indirectly, from each industry in a row for each dollar of delivery to
final demand for industry named at the head of the column—total requirements coefficient.
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
I
H-
Ln
1-
2-
3-
4
6
— - •
-
10
—
12-
u— — — —
14-
15-
16-
17
18-
19-
20-
0
. — —
_ _ __
_ ^
•.0126
§CD
Cd
i ^ -»
.0167
T3 CO
C Q)
cd -H
OJ O
U 0)
C to
cd cu
•o o
M 0
o cd
8.
D
nn 9 o
. UU2Z
.0089
T
r\ n / i
.0941
.1880
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
M
1
o _ _
3 -
A — ... —
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17
18 -
19 -
20
0
-.1715
_
Prepared feed
for animals
9.
D
.1485
— —
to
0
M-l
0
T
1.1868
_
0
.0329
n i AR
- .0323
.0181
U
Food & kindred
products excep
10.
D
.0018
nmi
. Uw JX
.0039
.0006
in
u
0) 0)
M rH
td
o 8
£-3
cd i j j
.0852
0
4->
Cu
Lumber & wood
products, exc«
containers
12.
D
f\f\f f
• UU^fO
T
1 / Q 1
• x^y x
0
n ooc
. U joo
01
4-1
•H
a
Household fur
13.
D
no i /,
.UZJ.H
T
n "7 o i
• U / j-L
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
,,<
H
--J
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
— — _ _
0
-.0152
0)
rt 03
M •
to a
i3 4-> C
O T
V4 3 c
0) TJ 4.
ft. O f
td ^ c
Pu ft. t
16.
D
0195
*
.0009
mr>7
0 SQ S
^
U)
•-I
i-l
•rl
e
ft.
9 rH
•i 3
3-5
5 S
3 X
5 0
J J3
T
?7«Q
.0070 -
T *5 AQ
**R1 A
n£ 90
0
01 ~Jli
00 -H
a 42
•H ca
« rH
•H ,0
M 3
P, ft,
17.
D
0107
T
21S7
M. • ...
0
1709
*
rt OQ "7
- .1011
mm
— .UJ.UJ
— .1578
— .0485
— .0101
- .0100
f\ r\ f i
— .0261
— .0302
o
r~
a
c.
E
t^J C
rH S-
ci) U C
•H -H
u C t
U 01 T
to oo t
3 V4 C
T3 O t
C (2 »
1— 1 -H C
18.
D
1 AT?
ftjCO
.0014
. Uljo
.0067
.0014
.0015
.0007
.0173
.0051
0
i
3
>
^
>
>
>
•t
4
i
a
4
5
T
1 IQfil
OOQS
i n *% 7
.0018
. 0236
.0107
.0030
.0034
.0072
.0296
.0617
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
M
oo
1 -
2 —
3
4
5 — — _ -,_
6 -
7
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18
19 -
0
n *3on
• U jy\J
.1075
. — _
— —
M
o
0)
(0
4J O\
0
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
M
I
M
VO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
— _
0
0476
.1312
— _ —
.0126
CD
4-1
00 U
a 3
•rl t3
a o
•H M
0)
M 13
a>
3
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
M 1 -
to 2
0 3 -
4 -
5
6
7 -
8
9 .
10
U. ,_ .. _
12 — — — — —
13 —
14
15
16 - — — —
XU
1 7 -
18 -
19
2Q
0
- — _—
—
• .0175
-.5638
-.0196
. .2883
— _ _
__ _
. _
. _
M» ~M^
_ _
— — .
4J
a. •
a> A!
>N CJ t
« x -H
r-l 0) Vi
O 43
CO
O 4J
o> 3 (5
C "0 4
0 O E
4J IJ 5
w a. a
29.
D
_ _ _ _
— —
.0010
.0826
.0008
.0059
— . ^_ .
— —
— — .
-~—~~ -^_
_
™— " ' ~™
^ fll
e
•H
r-l
•o
a
> cd
uT
ir-l
•H
4J
T
^^
— _ -
.0230
.5204
.0401
.1862-
— __
.
K» ^>^^M- i^K
— — — —
0
-.0332
• .0123
- .1302
IQ'39
_^__ _ ^__
- .2507
- .0132
- .0176
- .0811
.2192
i— i
CO 01
01 01
O 4J
cd ca
C
M U
3 -H
14-1 ca
cd
ca
3-S
M cd
30.
D
.0176
.0066
.0011
1 Q7A
. J. y £*+
— -^_~ _
.0047
.0013
.0008
.0137
.0232
ca
4J
O
3
O
VI
o.
T
.0343
.0203
.0015
1 r\ ~jnr\
-L • £ 1 y\J
. — -^—
.0069
.0033
.0058 -
.0196
.0377
0
fiOA c
.UZOJ
__ _
(U
4J CO
CO 01
•H
t-d Vl
13
l-l 0
M
o.
o
o
^>
cd
VI
PM
33.
D
Ort / "7
.3047
.0062
.1058
T
Iitfi
.4441
.0186
.1703
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
M
to 1 -
M 2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
]•)
•*-*•
13
14
1 C
16
T *7
18 -
19 _
20 -
0
.1669
.0989
-.2228
—
•o
3
1-1
M
•9
IX
34.
D
.1728
.0719
.3992
— — -
T
1. 234
.1012
.5304
—
0
.0308
.0107
.0484
— — -
QJ
•rl
M
>,
1
M
Oi
35.
D
.0450
.0111
.1223
— —
T
.0615 -i
1.0191 -
.1568
—
0
— —
. — _
* -LOUD
.2739
_ ni ^7
• U X J /
— — —
fi
M
a
•H
^
iH
n)
>>
S
•H
PH
36.
D
— —
— —
« -LJH J
.1281
— —
T
— _ _
_ _ _
J. * ^^O /
.1716
noc i
• UoDX
,
0
- .0483
- .0507
m QO
• UJ-oZ
.0182
— — —
C-H
2 2
01
w
M
11
0 O
O Vi
O V4
01 0)
CO *W
37.
D
.0277
.0204
n *57i
.UJ/1
.0181
— —
T
.0406
.0255
r\ / o ~j
.0487
1.0690
—
0
.2022
.3115
.6868
.1223
- .0160
a
-" 4-1
Vl O
<2 «2
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
2 -
3 -
4
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11
1 0
XZ ~ "-""• ~— ^~ ^
1 1
15
16 -
17 -
18 -
19
20 -
0
-.0329
.0512
— _ _
_ _ _
— —
CO
0)
•H
ca
4J
a
0
o
•-i
cd
4J
1
39.
D
.0316
.4030
_ _ _
— —
_ _ .
T
.0861
1.0219
_ _ _ .
_ _ _
0
.0380
.1076
mnn
"• • U-LL/w
- .0309
-.0166
00
•1-1 t
43 4
€ <
CX 4-» t-
cd c
• CJ 1
00 iH
tt M 4
•H 43 <
*J td
(d >H
(U 4
a .«
40.
D
.0093
.2173
nn^n
• UUZU
.0061
.0059
^
d
j
-i
a
J CO
3 4-1
J U
j =>
3 13
-l O
n ex
T
.1149
2.5539
7A7H
t ^H / O
.3588
.1328
0
.0113
.0530
m ^n
(0
(U iH f
es o o
0 - C
S 4J <
CJ
CU T3 0
M O 4.
u M :
CO (X (
41.
D
.0054
.2069
nm i
. UV/J..L
CO
S -rl
CX
' cd
J 4-1
J CO
g cd
J 4J
3 cy
^ e
T
.0135
.5790
~~_~~
• UU / H-
. _ _
0
.02776
. 0679
no "?o
— . UZ/z
— m i ft
— • UXXo
i AA c;
. XOOj
- . 0469
-a
4-1 CO
ca 4-1
O CJ
•H 3
M ^
43 O
ca M
M-I a.
t, fH
4J d)
o e
42.
D
.0072
.1452
r\f\ c o
.UU_)O
r\ Am
. UUU /
r*/\£ o
.UUocS
.0175
T
.1296
2.1617
-1-7-71-
. 1775
1 QQ 1
f*QA C
.0805
.1788
0
.0329
"B
cd
ca
ca 01
at G
a -H
-H 43
00 )-(
tS S
43.
D
.0461
T
.1225
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
3 1 -
1 2 -
NJ *
Co 3 —
4 -
5 -
6 -
7
8 -
9 -
10 -
11
12 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19
20 -
a
•H
43
U
3
I
44.
0
.0303
.0146
-.0271
D
.0177
.0922
.0297
T
.0206
.1866
.0454
4J
a
3 a
« s.
•r4 *H
•<4H 3
a a*
0 i-l 01
•H i-l
U O >.
0 M
3 * 0*
M oo a
u e -H
S-H 43
a u
O -H a)
USB
45.
0
.0224
.0145
.0651
D
.0098
.0685
.0535
T
.0242
.4976 -
.1945
S1
•H
rH
ll
OJ S*, 4J
r-t H a
tt «) 01
TJ3 S,
0) 43 T!
4J O 3
n) rt o-
S S «)
46.
0
. _
.0107
D
— — _
.0222
T
. _ —
_
.1526
i-i
01
G
•H
U
a
4J
•H B
»x pu
M -H
O 3
S er
f-i oi
d
11
47.
0
- .0135
- .0231
.0411
D
.0489
.0023
.0260
T
.4667
.0119
.1651
*
u
to
•H >, 4J
P C
i-l 01 01
« C S
•rH -H 0.
U 43 i-l
01 U 3
G, a) er
co S o»
48.
0
.0109
.0329
D
.0555
.0291
T
.7430
.2540
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
I
K>
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
— — •
0
-.0179
.0182
.0485
o3
General
industrial
machinery •
49.
D
.0644
.0018
.0305
u
u
I
rl
1
T
.9177-
.0229
.3399
0
.0183
o.
O
Machine shi
products
50.
D
.0274
T
.0370
0
.0162
p^
^i
4J
CO
13
Service in
machines
51.
D
.0161
T
.1211
0
— .0173
f\ 1 O C
— .0135.
.0120
i
•rl iJ
1 M d
01 4J Q)
C M e
0) -H (X
M T3 -rl
Electric t
mission &
but ion equ
52.
D
.0523
.0038
.0061
OD
•3
4-J
n)
M
0)
l-l 0»
Rt &•
O as
•rl
and electr
industrial
T
.7950
.1496
.0701
0
-.0174
.0160
U]
V
u
C
0)
•H
(H
Q.
CL
n)
Household
53.
D
.0033
.0659
T
.0716
.8881
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
Oi
1 -
2 - —
3 -
4
5 -
6 -
7 — - ^_ ^_
8 -
9 -
10 -
11
12 -
13
14 -
15 -
16 -
17
18 -
19 —
20 -
to
1 0)
O -H
i-l >, (X
oi vj a
0) 3
w G (I)
O i-l
4J 3
O O*
S 5
55.
0
— .0822
• -.2352
-.1089
.0116
.0143
— .2500
D
.0048
.0105
.0525
.0002
.0030
.021u
T
.0380
.0812 -
.5096 •
.0055
.0497
.0793
CO
4J
M
d
t«
4J
M-l
a)
u
»-i
i-t
fl 3
4J o*
O 4)
57.
0
-.0176
• -7l;21u
.0527
D
.0064
.0826
.0362
T
.1358
1.U753
.3000
i
ex
•H 3
e o* w
•H 0) (U
« -H
M U r*
•U *H (X
43 .a o.
a. a. 3
» 60 "O
•HOB
n) 4-1 to
u o
•H ^3 <-<
vi ex c
IX U
O <-9 B
58.
0
.0127
D
.U524
T
.1633
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
H
CT>
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
— —
— —
— —
_ __
—
0
-.0235
— —
— —
— — —
—
— -^—
co op
O -H
a cu ai
B 0 i-H
o X
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
3
1
S 1 -
2
3
4 _
5
6 -
7.
8
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17
18 -
19 -
20 -
«^j D
o
4
01 0)
OOrH 0) rH
fl H O T!
•H (3 -rl J>
00 0 > 0
-O U) VJ B
O M W M
66.
0
-
_ — . -
.0135
.ul5o
D
—
. — _
.0095
.u082
T
— —
- —
.0424
.0304
ca
D
O
•H
t
Q)
0)
HI
01
•H
a>
m
67.
0
- .0104
— __
.0108
.0337
D
.ou3o
- —
.0031
.0076
T
.0178
__
.u350
.0457
•H
fl)
O.
a)
a> to
rH 0)
•rH O
rQ -rl
i s
O (U
•U ca
< ta
68.
0
-.0314
.0111
. Io75
0
.0068
.Ollu
.0178
T
.uu87
.0196
.0204
-------
TABLE VI-3. - SELECTED COMPONENTS OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE OF THE U. S. ECONOMY (continued)
I
NJ
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
. — .
0
-.0169
CO
4.1
fi
cu
CO
69.
D
.0028
T
.0065
0
- .0136
— .0808
<•£!
1 CO
cd cu
0 0
3 -H
CU S-l
cu
•> CO •
H i
cd H
o cd
•H fl
^ o
CU -H
s w
70.
D
.OuOO
.0203
CO
C
0
H
id
N
H
«
cd
00
VJ
o
u
H
t-l
O
t-l
a.
c
0
fl
T
.0562
.1446 -
0
nii ft
. UJ10
•U
a
CU
2
M
cu
> CO
0 CU
e>o co
•H
I— 1 M
tH a
rt cu
o
O 4-1
•H C
CU
13 €
Q
cu t-i
4J CU
cd >
4J 0
CO 60
72.
D
.0713
/\ n I *5
.0112
T
( \ i \ O O
. 00 Jo
.3119
• . —» f f
.0766
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL
I
NJ
1
2'
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
.
Each entry represents
the increase in
the price level
of the industries
purchasing at least
one percent of the
output of the NAPCA
industries as a re-
sult of the costs
of emission control
INDUSTRY
- prepared feeds for animals & fowls
- elemental phosphorus
- phosphate fertilizer
- paints & allied products
- petroleum refining & related products
- paving mixtures & blocks
- tires & inner tubes
- cement, hydraulic
- brick & structural clay tile
- lime
- blast furnaces & basic steel products
- primary copper
- primary lead
- primary zinc
- primary aluminum
- secondary nonferrous metals
- electric utilities
- pulp mills
- iron & steel foundries
- coal mining
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
Oil
rH C
1 as -H
> 3 S to -H
•H CO 4J 3 Cd £3
rH 4J iH 0) M
CJ 3 rH ^>
>£3 cj oc o rH cd M
^4 O M lH 4J M CJ -rl
O M OC'CO £ i
Oft « 4J -H O.tJ <£ M
4J O3 Cd V4
CO^ M3 OJC CUcd
d)O CUT) rH T3 C3
>O .GO cd 3T3 OCT
•rl4J 4JM O V4C2 4-1
hJco Oo. u ocd cn<«
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
.0000
.0007
.0000
.0001
.0051
— .0007 .0051 .0001 .0000
.0037 .0108 .0009 .0000 .0002
— .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000
G
o
•H
tj
Q
4J
to
o
CJ
OJ
S3
6.
.0000
.0003
.0035
.0007
.0008
.0053
.1110
.0006
c
o
•H
O
3
** U
IS CO
u c
C 0
cd u
a
4J -H
c cd
iH P.
cd
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
H
1 «
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
U)
.u
u co
3 "V
T3 Q) CO
O (U i-l
M M U_i 3
o ex o
U-l CO T3 m
iH T> cu
T3 S CU M v8
CU O M rt
co co u-i tj ex co
>#
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
M
CO
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
^
0)0) M
•H O «4J rH
rH X rH
0) rH 0) to -rl
rH CD VI 6
rH tO 0)
•H <4 4J C CX
S O 1-1 rH
rl 3 ffl 3
CX, 4) T3 4J O.
iH P. O (3 »-*
3 (0 M O
15. 16..
.0000
.0015
.0039
.0003
— .0057
.0003 .0029
— .0000
oo
•H
fi
to
•H
1
fcd
00
C
•H
4-1
a
-H
rl
a.
17.
.0000
.0000
.0068
.0000
o
•rl 10
C rH
a) (d
00 U
O £3
•H JC
U
i-l
to u
•H iH
£ §
3 ff
•a o
d
M og
18.
.0001
.0000
.0002
.0001
.0000
.0000
.0003
.0003
.0010
.0035
.0000
ID
M
a)
N
Tt
rH
tH
4J
14
(0
19.
.0000
.0041
.0041
.0003
.0000
•a
v
u to
a) 4-1
rH O
at 3 at
0) *T3 rH
o
D.
to oo
rH rH rH
n) n)
U O 4-1
-H -H O.
sew
0) 0) U
J3 43 X
u a a)
20.
.0001
.0002
.0003
.0012
.0000
u
•H
4-1
(U
Si
4J
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
3
U)
to
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
^ Drugs, cleaning &
|° toilet preparations
.0000
.0001
.0001
.0108
.0000
^ Paints & allied
^> products
.0000
.0001
.0001
.0002
.0000
^ Petroleum refining
f & related products
.0000
.0002
.0002
.0171
.0000
^ Paving mixtures
y & blocks
.0106
.0106
.0000
.0000
J£ Rubber footwear
•
.0000
.0000
.0021
.0000
£j Glass & glass
* products
M Cement, hydraulic
00
.0000
.0000 .0000
.0008 .0010
.0000 .0000
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
I
CO
to
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
•t
Jj Q)
c e
\ 01 i-l
o a -H
h Q)
cu o *#
^* 4-1 **
cd tx a)
•H <1) rH
O O -H
X 4J
"* * .
01 CO ^
a <•> o
O O i-t
•U 3 Vi
w T) ,£>
29.
.0002
.0008
.0010
.0001
.0000
CO
4J
O
rj
o
CO M
CU (X
U
CO rH
C 01
rl 01
3 -W
M-l CO
4J O
CO -H
CO CO
r-l CO
30.
.0000
.0087
.0001
.0000
.0003
.0003
.0002
.0096
.0010
.0000
CO
01
•H
•o
c
o
,-1
01
01
4J
en
««
C
o
M
31.
.0014
.0014
.0001
.0000
rH 4-J
01 o.
01 01
4-1 U
CO X
CU
DO 01
C C3 O*
O i-l IX
(-1 M O
•H 3 0
4J
>> 0 r-l >,
n co n »-i
CO M-l Ct)
a 3 •« s
•H C -H
l-i cd O >-t
Oj 0 OO pui
32. 33.
.0042
.0052
.0001
.0001
.0042 .0054
.0000
.0000
•o o
CO C
(U i-l
rH N
& £r
<0 CO
6 g
•H -3
M l-i
Pi OH
34. 35.
.0063 .0003
.0012 .0117
.0004 .0001
.0079 .0121
-------
(continued)
I
Co
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
_2CL = — — — —
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
g
5
d i 01
•rl (3 iH
E on)
3 a w
i-H OJ
td £,s
& -33
cd CO
3 0 M
•H OH
H 0) 01
IXi CO M-l
36. 37.
.0002
.0003
.0001 .0007
.0009
.0010 .0012
n
IT1
ro
01 « •
t-H 00 <•
1 td a n
C 4-1 -i-i
O 0) V4 •
(3 B 3 CO
4J CO
>, to o
M 3 cfl U
a) o m a
e H 3 4J >J
00 a) ex
13 0
•H 1-1 r-l
4-1 1-1 «
(B fk 4J
a) a) a)
BS >w B
40.
.0174
.0009
.0018
.0201
.0017
.0000
u
0)
• e
Cfl
4-1 -a
0 C
3 H)
•o
0 •
P O
O. 4-1 to
0) t>0
ai c
d « -H
•H CO CX
J3 4J B
O 3 W
« G 4-1
0 . W
S CO rH
0) 4J tfl
VJ t-H W
u o ai
co 43 a
41.
.0039
.0001
.0040
.0007
.0000
13
0)
4J y>
ta 4J
o o
•H 3
V4 -O
JD O
tO M
M-l CX
^i iH
(U a)
J3 4-1
4J (1)
o e
42.
.0147
.0006
.0007
.0009
.0024
.0093
.0021
.0000
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
I
Co
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTIONS TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
to
Ol
p
•rl
M
3
H
*-3
01
0)
C
•rl
M)
a
43.
.0016
.0016
.0017
.0000
^
M
01
c
•H
43
(J
s
g
44.
.0013
.0006
.0019
.0038
.0000
^
t>0 >%
(3 h
•H Ol
C C
•H -rl
6 43
O
13 cd
o B
•H
•u 13 -U
0 iH C
20) Ol
•H B
4-1 M-l (1,
CO -H
13 .H 3
O -H CT
O O 01
45.
.0034
.0026
.0060
.0049
.0000
^j
c
01
W) 6
C p.
•rl -rl
rH 3
T3 CT
P Ol
0)
43 *^l
10 >-,
i-H M
cfl 01
•H G
M -H
0) 43
•M (J
td cd
a 6
46.
.0020
.0020
.0014
.0000
M
Ol
c
•H
43
O
cd
e
00 -U
c c
•H Ol
^ e
M 0.
0 -rl
9 3
O*
iH 01
cd
4J T3
o> c
s ™
47.
.0032
.0001
.0022
.0055
.0040
.0000
4J
C
cu
a
o.
>^ "H
l-i 3
4J Q*
CD Ol
3
'O ^3
(3
•H ^
I-l
•-I 0)
cd c
•H -H
0 43
0) O
f\ CQ
co e
48.
.0051
.0034
.0085
.0045
.0000
4-1
C
01
e
O.
&-j *rH
M 3
u cr
CO 01
3
^) t3
C
•H >•>
^
i-l 01
cd c
M -rl
(U 43
C O
01 cd
CJ g
49.
.0062
.0001
.0046
.0109
.0035
.0000
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
I
CO
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
••a
• i
X -H 4-1 CO •
M I M C 3 CO
4J M 4-1 CD 13 3
co C3 co 6 C 4J
O. 3co H ft ft. -H ed
O TJ 0) (J "O -H VJ
•° m c G w , El "3 5 ~ °?
co 4J t— 1 »H xJCTroca* ™ 0>
O J3 O 0> O d. .-1 O
0)3 0)O -H cS -H n) o fi
C T3 Old rlOGM *C 03
•HO -H S 4J -H O 4J i— 1 0) -rl
J3M > OCO-HOCBcOi— 1
(J FM M 0)CQ4JCU-H3a.
td 0} i-H -H 3 «H M O fti
S cn w B j3 a) 4-1 w rt
50. 51. 52. 53.
.0054 .0060
.0005 .0016 .0009
.0005 .0016 .0063 .0060
.0002 .0031 .0046 .0056
.0000 .0000 .0000 .0000
CO
O -H
1) • r— 1
•H ;>> a.
0) M ft.
0) 3
ca C co
3 -H
O ,13 ^3
0) o
d n) 4_)
n) E C
i— 1 0)
•H <~t 6
q\ nj p.
0 0 -H
CO -H 3
•H i-i cr
S 4-1
tH C
O 0)
•H g
,c a.
01 ft
> 3
a*
M 0)
O
4-1
O
S
55.
.0035
.0000
.0005
.0011
.0051
.0413
.0002
<#
4-1 CO
U-l 4-1
CD w
V^ CO
O Pu
•H
"^
56.
.0006
.0006
.0156
.0000
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
s
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
CO
CU
•H
CJ r-t
•H p,
E O™
-H 0 3
CO -H CO
4J d, 13 CO 00
i .c to e 3 c
CO p. M 10 O i-l
C o 60 -H
O CU 4-1
•rl -i CU
0) U
4J -H
CO >
3 n
0)
•> co
CO
tfl X
00 M
to
» J-l
O i-l
•H C
M n)
4J CO
o
cu -a
r-t a
Cd co
62.
.0124
.0003
.0127
.0212
.0003
i— i
•H
CO
4-1
CU
p^
c3 tj)
*O
CU ctj
«H >J
CO &H
CO
CU
1— 1
o
63.
.0000
.0000
.0003
.0003
.1500
.0000
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
I
OJ
oo
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
r-i co cu co M
t>0 CO CD rH CU -i-l
c a O > CU 0)
T3 }-i V-4 fa J-l PS CJ
CD OCUCUOi-lCU -H
4J i-H P, (0 4J
c3 CU cfl 3 rt i-l M
O 4JrH idMtOfXCO 'H CU
CUC ton) •••HCUlO J3C/2
On) W 4-1 COIOCO-UMCU O
CM B .-H!l>P.a.C B "3
(03 iHCU 0) M
CU •—) CU O
g rt cj
0) O -H
CO -H >
3 T3 M
g CU CU
<2 g C/3
69. 70.
.0016
— .0016
.0100 .0619
— .0001
-------
TABLE VI-4. - PRICE EFFECTS OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL (continued)
<3
H
VD
r- • - " '
i -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
TOTAL INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION TO GNP
IMPACT ON IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GNP
u
VI 0(0
Op. O -U 0>
OH iJ C W
01 <0 -rt
iH J-l c3 S M
CS C CO,
M W 0) M >J
0) 4J tt) 4)
01 4J O C
PCI WOW
71. 72.
.0034
.0008 .0003
TOTAL
.0008 .0037
.0022 .0015
.0000 .0000 0014
-------
TABLE VI-5. - ESTIMATED IMPACT OF THE COSTS OF EMISSION CONTROL
ON THE PRICE LEVEL
Industry
Estimated Increase in the
Price Level*
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communication,
Electric, Gas and Sanitary Services
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
Services
Government Enterprises
0.0000
0.0000
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0000
Total
0.0014 or 0.14%
Implicit price deflator for GNP.
TABLE VI-6. - DISTRIBUTION OF CONSTRUCTION COST
On-Site Labor
Materials
Land
Overhead and Profit
Financing
Percent of Cost
1949
33
36
11
15
5
1969
18
38
21
13
10
Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Monthly Labor Review. Vol. 93,
No. 7 (July 1970), p. 27.
VI-40
-------
TABLE VI-7. - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
(Billions of Dollars)
Actual
Current Dollars
1960 1965 1967 1969
Projected
Constant
Current Dollars (1967 Dollars)
1975 1980 1975 1980
GNP 503.7 684.9 793.9 932.4
Total Value of
New Construction 33.9 72.3 76.2 90.9
1,366.6 1,920.1 1,105.7 1,384.3
138.5 199.3 107.4 131.5
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Construction Review, Vol. 15, No. 7 (July 1969),
p. 13.
TABLE
T. AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP
1950
1955
1960
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Percent of Families Owning
Two or More Automobiles
7
10
15
22
24
25
25
26
Source: The University of Michigan, Survey
Research Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan;
"Survey of Consumer Finances."
VI-41
-------
TABLE VI-9. - TRUCK AND BUS CHASSIS FACTORY SALES
(in thousands of units)
Gross Vehicle
Weight
6000 Ibs. & less
6001 to 10,000 Ibs.
10,001 to 14,000 Ibs.
14,001 to 16,000 Ibs.
16,001 to 19,500 Ibs.
19,501 to 26,000 Ibs.
26,001 to 33,000 Ibs.
Over 33,000 Ibs.
Total
*
Estimated.
1961
647
180
11
30
139
65
29
32
1,133
Source: Census of
1962
678
213
9
27
142
93
35
43
1,240
1963
836
247
6
28
145
110
32
59
1,463
Manufactures
1964
920
250
6
24
142
104
30
64
1,540
1965
1,058
294
5
26
144
110
40
75
1,752
and Automobile
1966
1,020
297
7
21
125
124
44
91
1,729
1967
900
290
5
16
88
124
38
78
1,539
1968
1,136
386
5
17
79
141
42
90
1,896
*
1969-
1,085
404
18
25
78
143
47
100
1,900
Manufacturers
Association.
TABLE VI-10. - PROJECTION OF MOTOR VEHICLE SALES
GNP (billions of 1967 dollars)
Gross Auto Product
(billions of 1967 dollars)
Gross Auto Product as a
(Percent of GNP)
1975
$1,105.7
$44.2
4%
1980
$1,384.3
$55.4
4%
VI-42
-------
2,000
M
a
UJ
a 1,500
I- 2
TOTAL
PRIVATE
(LEFT
SCALE)
1,000
Z
o
o
ui
o
X
500
PUBLIC
(RIGHT
SCALE)
SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OFCOMMERCE
60
50
40
30
20
0
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Fig. VI-1. New Construction Units Started
-------
L±J
O
<
Q_
°- 3
Z _l
o o
I f"*^
r^
O u.
I— en
z o
8 3
UJ —
U.
O
UJ
$100,000
90,000 -
80,000
70,000 -
60,000 -
50,000 -
40,000 -
30,000 -
20,000 -
10,000-
TOTAL
PRIVATE
PUBLIC
SOURCE: u.s. DEPT OF
COMMERCE
J I
1950 1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 I960
YEAR
Fig. VI-2. Value of New Construction
VI-44
-------
<
I—I
I
Ol
3
uj 8.00%r
o:
o
co
O
l-
z
UJ
z
o
o
z
o
UJ
cc
(/>
UJ
QC
UJ
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
SOURCE: FEDERAL HOME
LOAN BANK
I960
1962
1964 1966 1968
YEAR
1970
Fig. VI-3. Interest Rates
-------
100,000
90,000
a) 90,000
Q
o 70,000
60,000
UJ
CO
2 50,000
40,000
30,000
i960
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
/TOTAL
//HOUSE-
X.' HOLDS
SOURCE: u.s. DEPT OF
COMMERCE
1955
I960
1965
YEAR
1970
1975
1980
Fig. VI-4. U. S. Households
VI-46
-------
I
-P-
150
STRUCTURES
GNP
SOURCE: u.s. DEPT OF
COMMERCE
1952
1954
1956
1958
I960
YEAR
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Fig. VI-5. Implicit Price Deflators (1958=100)
-------
$7.00
6.00
b 5.00
^L
(E
UJ
1
4.00
v 5
i- o
oo I
I 3.00
UJ
o
<
£ 2.00
1.00
PLUMBERS
BRICKLAYERS
ELECTRICIANS
CARPENTERS
PLASTERERS
PAINTERS
BUILDING
LABORERS
SOURCE :U.S.DEPT OF
COMMERCE
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
YEAR
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Fig. VI-6. Average Wage Race for Selected Building Trades
-------
I
-p-
8
CO
gj
<
CO
5
u_
u 4
_j
I
o
LL)
O
O
PASSENGER CARS
SOURCE; AMERICAN AUTOMOBILE
ASSOCIATION
TRUCKS
a BUSES
I I
J I I I 1
50 I 234 56789 60 I
YEAR
2345678
Fig. Vl-7. Motor Vehicle Factory Sales-Units
-------
V)
Q
in
O
I
V)
UJ
C/)
$19,
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
II
PASSENGER CARS
QC 10
o
h-
o
UJ
_j
X
o
UJ
>
a:
o
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
SOURCE: AMERICAN AUTOMOBILE
ASSOCIATION
TRUCKS & BUSES
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68
YEAR
Fig. VI-8. Motor Vehicle Factory Sales-Value
-------
9O
80
70
PASSENGER CARS
I
en
60
50
SOURCE: AMERICAN AUTOMOBILE
ASSOCIATION
I
Ul
o
UJ
_j
I
40
30
o
20
TRUCKS a BUSES
10
55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68
YEAR
Fig. VI-9. Motor Vehicle Registrations
-------
<
M
Ui
to
Q
Q-<
6.0
HO.
8g5.o
Q-t 4.0
2.0
LU
a.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
I960
GROSS
AUTO
PRODUCT
PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
ON AUTOS
1952
1954
1956
1958
I960
YEAR
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Fig. VI-10. Relationship of Motor Vehicle Production to GNP and Personal Incoine
-------
1.4
AUTOMOBILE
PER HOUSE-
HOLD
1.2
M
I
Oi
o
CC
UJ
Q.
O
<
Q
O
UJ
CO
O
CC
UJ
a.
o
UJ
cc
UJ
K-
co
o
UJ
CC
CO
UJ
.J
CO
o
1.0
.8
DATA SOURCES: AUTOMOBILE REGISTRATIONS -AUTOMOBILE
MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION HOUSEHOLDS
AND POPULATION-U.S. DEPT OF COMMERCE
.6
•AUTOMOBILE
PER CAPITA
j_
_L
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
I960
YEAR
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Fig. VI-11. Automobiles Per Household and Per Capita
-------
<
M
I
4>-
120
no
CO
UJ
_J
CO
o
100
90
< 80
UJ
f 70
X
Q 60
*** *n
o so
E
o.
40
UJ
z
15
CO
8 20
10-
1950
PRICE INDEX
NEW AUTOS
SOURCE: u.s. DEPT OF
COMMERCE
_L
1952
1954
1956
1958
I960
YEAR
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
Fig. VI-12. Consumer Price Index for New Automobiles
-------
APPENDIX 2E
Bibliography
-------
Appendix VII
Bibliography
Adams, Richard L. "Application of Baghouses to Electric Furnace Fume Control,"
Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 14, No. 8
(August 1964), pp. 299-302.
Air and Water Conservation Expenditures of the Petroleum Industries in the
U.S. New York: Crossley, S-D Surveys, Inc., August 1968.
Air Pollution and the Regulated Electric Power and Natural Gas Industries.
Federal Power Commission. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1968.
Air/Water Pollution Report. Silver Spring, Maryland: Business Publishers,
Inc., May 25, 1970.
Allsman, Paul, U.S. Bureau of Mines, Arlington, Virginia. Private communication.
Alpiser, F. M. Private communication.
"Aluminum Profile of An Industry," Metals Week. (July 15, 1968).
American Bureau of Metal Statistics 1967 Yearbook. New York: American
Bureau of Metal Statistics, 1968.
American Bureau of Metal Statistics 1968 Yearbook. New York: American Bureau
of Metal Statistics, 1969.
American Iron and Steel Institute, Annual Statistical Report, 1967. New York:
American Iron and Steel Institute, 1967.
American Petroleum Institute, New York, June 1969. Private communication.
Annual Report, International Paper Co., 1966. New York: International Paper
Co., 1967.
Atmospheric Emissions from Petroleum Refineries. PHS Publication No. 763.
Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1960.
Automotive Facts and Figures. 1968. Detroit, Michigan: Automobile
Manufacturers Association, 1969.
Azbe, Victor J. "Let's Step Up Rotary Kiln Performance," Rock Products.
Vol. 72, No. 7 (July 1969), pp. 79-82.
Bauman, H. S. Fundamentals of Cost Engineering in the Chemical Industry.
New York: Reinhold Book Corp., 1964.
VII-1
-------
Baylies, Zoe N. , American Gas Association. Private communication.
"A Bear Market for SCL Technology," Environmental Science and Technology.
Vol. 4, No. 6 (June 1970), pp. 474-475.
Beck, Bennie II. "The Limestone and Lime Industries of Texas, Part II,"
Texas Business Review. Vol. 42, No. 6 (June 1968), pp. 165-172.
Black, R. J., et al. "The National Solid Wastes Survey." Paper presented at
the American Public Works Association, Miami, Florida, October 24, 1968.
Bland, H., Aeroglide Corporation. Private communication.
Blosser, R. 0. and H. B. Cooper. "Trends in Atmospheric Particulate Matter
Reduction in the Kraft Industry," Tappi. Vol. 51, No. 5 (May 1968),
pp. 73A-77A.
Borenstein, Murray. "Air Pollution Control for the Iron and Steel Making
Processes," Industrial Heating. (September 1967), pp. 1646-1648.
Boynton, R. S. Chemistry and Technology of Lime and Limestone. New York:
Interscience Publishers, 1966.
Boynton, Robert S., Executive Director, Technical Service, National Lime
Association, Washington, D. C. Private communication.
Brown, H. R., et al. Fire and Explosion Hazards in Thermal Coal-drying Plants.
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines Report of Investigations
5198. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, February 1956.
Brubacher, Miles L., Air Resources Board, State of California. Private
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Bulletin G-87A. Barberton, Ohio: Babcock and Wilcox Co., 1956.
Bureau of Solid Waste Management Private Communication.
Burkhardt, D. B. "Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Plants: Increasing Conversion
Efficiency," Chemical Engineering Progress. Vol. 64, No. 11
(November 1968), pp. 66-70.
Campbell, W. W. and R. W. Fullerton. "Development of an Electric-Furnace
Dust-Control System," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.
Vol. 12, No. 12 (December 1962), pp. 574-577.
Casberg, T., Department of Defense, Washington, D. C. Private communication.
"Cement Capacity in North America," Rock Products. Vol. 72, No. 5 (May 1969),
pp. 49-54.
Chemical Economics Handbook. Menlo Park, California: Stanford Research Insti-
tute, December 1967.
Chicago Bridge and Iron Company, June and August 1969. Private communications.
VII-2
-------
Collins, R. L., M. E. Fogel, D. A. LeSourd, and R. E. Paddock. Cost to
Industry of Compliance with National Emission Standards. Research
Triangle Park, N. C.: Research Triangle Institute, 1969.
Commercial Fertilizer Yearbook, 1968—69. Atlanta, Georgia: Walter W.
Brown Publishing Company, Inc., 1969.
"Commercial Lime Plants in the U.S. and Canada." A map and list prepared
by the National Lime Association, Washington, D. C., 1967.
A Comprehensive Bibliography of SAE Literature Vehicle Emissions 1955-1967.
New York, N. Y.: Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc., [n.d.].
Control of Atmospheric Emissions in the Wood Pulping Industry. Vol. 1
(Final Report). Contract CPS 22-69-18, Environmental Engineering, Inc.,
Gainesville, Florida and J. E. Sirrine Co., Greenville, S. C. for the
National Air Pollution Control Administration (DHEW), March 15, 1970.
Control Techniques for Fluoride Air Pollutants. Prepared by Singmaster and
Breyer for U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, PHS,
Consumer Protection and Environmental Health Service, NAPCA^ Washington,
D. C., February 13, 1970.
The Cost of Clean Air, Second Report, The Secretary of HEW, March 19, 1970.
Costs and Economic Impacts of Air Pollution Control. Report to the National
Air Pollution Control Administration. Washington, D. C.: Ernst and
Ernst, 1968.
Dement, John. "Cost of Dolomite-Injection/Wet Scrubbing." Unpublished
report of the Air Pollution Control Office, Raleigh.
Danielson, J. A. (ed.). Air Pollution Engineering Manual. Publich Health
Service Publication No. 999-AP-40. Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department
of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1967.
Directory of American Iron and Steel Works of the United States and Canada,
1967. New York: American Iron and Steel Institute, April 1967.
"Directory of Brick and Tile Manufacturers in the American Structural Clay
Products Industry, 1970." Structural Clay Products Institute, McLean,
Virginia, January 1970.
Directory of Chemical Producers. Menlo Park, California: Stanford Research
Institute, 1969.
Directory of Iron and Steel Plants, 1969. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: Steel
Publications, Inc., 1969.
Duorev R. L. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Public Health
Service Publication No. 999-Ap-4Z. Durham, N. C.: U.S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare, National Center for Air Pollution
Control, 1968.
VI I-3
-------
Economic Aspects of Control of Air Quality in the Integrated Iron and Steel
Industry, Draft of Final Report to NAPCA. Battelle Memorial Institute,
Columbus, Ohio, March 31, 1969.
"Economic Indicators," Chemical Engineering. Vol. 77, No. 18 (August 24, 1970),
The Economics of Residual Fuel Oil Desulfurization. Prepared by the Bechtel
Corporation. Cincinnati: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare, Division of Air Pollution, (PHS), 1967.
Edmisten, N. G. and F. L. Bunyard. "A Systematic Procedure for Determining
the Cost of Controlling Particulate Emissions from Industrial Sources."
Presented at the annual meeting of the Air Pollution Control Associa-
tion, New York, June 1969.
Elements of Solid Waste Management, Training Manual. EGA, Washington, D. C.:
PHS, March 1969.
"Eleventh Annual Market Analysis on Electric Heating," Electric Heat and
Aircondit ioning. (Reprinted from the March-April 1967 issue), pp. 2-6.
Elliott, A. C. and A. J. Lafreniere. "The Collection of Metallurgical Fumes
from an Oxygen Lanced Open Hearth Furnace," Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association. Vol. 14, No. 10 (October 1964), pp. 401-405.
Ellis, David H., West Virginia Air Pollution Control Commission, Charleston,
West Virginia, July 11, 1969. Private communication.
Faught, D. William, Chief of Fibers and Grainin Section, Economics Research
Service, U.S.D.A. Private communication.
"Federal Power Commission Survey of Fuels Consumed by Electric Utilities in
1967" (mimeographed). Compiled by the Federal Power Commission,
Washington, D. C.
Ferguson, F. A., K. T. Semrou, and D. R. Monti. "S0? from Smelters: By-
Product Markets a Powerful Lure." Environmental Science and Technology.
Vol. 4, No. 7 (July 1970), pp. 562-568.
"Finding Money in Sulfite-Pulp Spent Liquor," Chemical Engineering. Vol. 72
(August 16, 1967), pp. 74-76.
Finney, C. S., W. C. De Sieghardt, and H. E. Harris. "Coke Making in the
United States—Past, Present, and Future," The Canadian Mining and
Me t allurgi cal Bulletin. Vol. 60 (September 1967), pp. 1032-1040.
Fogel, M. .E., D. R. Johnston, R. L. Collins, D. A. LeSourd, R. W. Gerstle,
E. L. Hill. Comprehensive Economic Cost Study of Air Pollution Control
Cost for Selected Industries and Selected Regions. Research Triangle
Park, N. C.: Research Triangle Institute, February 1970.
"Foundries Fail on Clean Air Laws," Business Week. (August 29, 1970), p. 48.
Friedrich, H. E. "Air Pollution Control Practices and Criteria for Hot-Mix
Asphalt Paving Batch Plants." Presented at 62nd Annual Meeting of the
Air Pollution Control Association, New York, June 22-26, 1969.
The Fuel of Fifty Cities. Report to the National Air Pollution Control
Administration. Washington, D. C.: Ernst and Ernst, November 1968.
VII-4
-------
Fullerton, R. W. "Impingement Baffles to Reduce Emissions from Coke
Quenching," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.
Vol. 17, No. 12 (December 1967), pp. 807-809.
Grekel, J. W., Palm, and J. W. Kolmer. "Why Recover Sulfur from H S,"
The Oil and Gas Journal. (October 28, 1968). 2
"Guide for Air Pollution Control of Hot-Mix Asphalt Plants." Prepared by
Resources Research, Inc. Falls Church, Virginia for the Asphalt
Pavement Association, [n. d.].
Gutschick, Kenneth A., Manager, Technical Service, National Lime Association,
Washington, D. C. Private communication.
Hangebrauck, R. P., et al. Sources of Polynuclear Hydrocarbon in the
Atmosphere. PHS Publication No. 999-AP-33. Washington, D. C.:
U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1967.
Harris, E. R. and F. R. Beiser. "Cleaning Sinter Plant Gas with Venturi
Scrubber," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 15,
No. 2 (February 1967), pp. 46-49.
Heating Degree Day Normals, 1963. Decennial Census of U.S. Climate, Clima-
tography of the U.S. No. 83. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government
Printing Office, 1968.
Heller, Austin N. and Donald F. Walters. "Impact of Changing Patterns of
Energy Use on Community Air Quality," Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association. Vol. 15, No. 9 (September 1965), pp. 423-428.
Herrick, Robert A., Joseph W. Olsen, and Francis A. Ray. "Oxygen-Lanced
Open Hearth Furnace Fume Cleaning with a Glass Fabric Baghouse,"
Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 16, No. 1
(January 1966), pp. 9-11.
Hinge, E. M. "Study Analyses Iron Melting Costs," Foundry. (December 1960),
pp. 160-163.
Hongen, Olaf A. and K. M. Watson. Chemical Process Principles; Part One.
New York, N. Y.: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1943.
Hot-Mix Asphalt Production and Use Facts for 1967. Riverdale, Maryland:
National Asphalt Pavement Association, 1968.
Houseman, Paul, U.S. Bureau of Mines. Private communication.
Hubbard, R. F., Assistant General Superintendent, The Cargill Company.
Private communication.
Hugick, Henry J., Sales Engineer, Kennedy Van Saun Corporation, Danville,
Pennsylvania, Private communication.
"Industrial Process Data for Proper Selection of Air Cleaning Equipment,"
Air Engineering. (December 1966), pp. 25-27.
VI I-5
-------
Interstate Air Pollution Study; St. Louis, Phase II Project Report.
Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Public Health Service, May 1969.
Kaiser, E. R. Kaiser and J. Tolciss. "Smokeless Burning of Automobile
Bodies," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 12,
No. 2 (February 1962), p. 64-73.
Keystone Coal Buyers Manual 1967. New York: McGraw-Hill Co., 1968.
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from the Manufacture of Portland Cement. Public Health Service
Publication No. 999-AP-17. Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare, (PHS), 1967.
Kronsider, J. G. "Cost of Reducing S02 Emissions," Chemical Engineering
Progress. Larry Resen, editor. Vol. 64, No. 2 (November 1968), pp.
71-74.
Landsberg, et al. Resources in America's Future. Baltimore, Maryland:
The Johns Hopkins Press, 1963.
Laster, L. National Air Pollution Control Administration, August 1969.
Private communication.
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Chemical Engineering Progress. Vol. 61, No. 11 (November 1965), pp.
89-93.
Lewis, C. J. and B. B. Crocker. "The Lime Industry's Problem of Airborne
Dust," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 19,
No. 1 (January 1969), pp. 31-39.
"Listing of Cement Plants by Annual Capacities" (mimeographed). Prepared
by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, Washington, D. C., October 15, 1968.
Lockwood's Directory of the Paper and Allied Trades. New York, N. Y.:
Lockwood Trade Journal Co., Inc., 1968.
Logan, J. 0., President, Universal Oil Products Co. (Testimony to Assembly
Committee on Transportation of the California Legislature), Los Angeles,
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Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, August 1969 and September
15, 1969. Private Communications.
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Costs and Procedures," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Associaiton.
Vol. 19, No. 5 (May 1969), pp. 315-321.~~
VII-6
-------
Mayer, Martin. A Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors for Com-
bustion Processes, Gasoline Evaporation, and Selected Industrial
Processes. Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department of Health, Education,
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cation.
Meredith, Deward. National Air Pollution Control Administration. Private
communication.
Moeller, W. and K. Winkler, "The Double Contact Process for Sulfuric Acid
Production," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.
Vol. 18, No. 5 (May 1968), pp. 324-325.
Molos , J. E. "Control of Odors from a Continuous Soap Making Process,"
Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 11, No. 1
(January 11, 1961), pp. 9-13; 44.
Moody *s Industrial Manual. New York: Moody ?s Investor Service, 1970.
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Health, Education, and Welfare, (PHS), 1967, pp. 170-178.
Motor Assembly Line Testing. Final Report. Prepared by Statistics Research
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National Academy of Engineering, "Abatement of Sulfur Oxide Emissions from
Stationary Source." Report of a study underway by the Committee on
Air Quality Management for the National Academy of Engineers in
execution of work with the Air Pollution Control Office, Washington,
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National Coal Policy Conference. Private communication.
National Electric Rate Book. 1968. Federal Power Commission. Washington,
- oTm U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968.
Standards Study. First Draft. U.S Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare, NArCA, Durham, N. C. , 1969.
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(December 1965), p. 162.
VII- 7
-------
"1966 Installations," Fueloil and Oil Heat. (Reprinted from the April
1967 issue), pp. 3-11.
"1968 Oil Heating Sales Analysis," Fueloil & Oil Heat. (Reprinted from
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Ott, R. R. and R. E. Hatchard. "Control of Fluoride Emissions at Harvey
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Community Air Pollution Emissions. Public Health Service Publication
No. 999-AP-29. Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department of Health, Education,
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N. Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1950.
Petroleum Facts and Figures (1967 ed.). New York: American Petroleum
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Pettit, Grant A. "Electric Furnace Dust Control System," Journal of the
Air Pollution Control Association. Vol. 13, No. 12 (December 1963),
pp. 607-609.
Phelps, A. H. "Air Pollution Aspects of Soap and Detergent Manufacture,"
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Priestly, R. J., Director of Marketing, Thermal Processing Division,
Dorr-Oliver, Inc., Stamford, Connecticut. Private communication.
VII-8
-------
Producer profiles: Summary of the major secondaries," Metals Week.
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"A Rational Program for Control of Lead in Motor Gasoline" (Report of the
Technical Advisory Committee to the California State Air Resources
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"Recent Lime Plants Projects," Rock Products. Vol. 70, No. 7 (July 1967).
Rengstorff, George W. "A Research Approach to the Control of Emissions
from Steelmaking Processes," Journal of the Air Pollution Control
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Rohrman, F. and J. Ludwig. "Sources of Sulfur Dioxide Pollution." Paper
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Rubber Red Book, Directory of the Rubber Industry, 1968 (20th ed.). New
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lizer Plant—A Case History," Journal of the Air Pollution Control
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Sales Census for 1968. New York: The Soap and Detergent Association, 1969.
Schell, T. W. "Cyclone/Scrubber System Quickly Eliminates Dust Collector
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Schenck, George H. H., and Peter G. Donals. "Cement—An Industry in Flux,"
Mining Engineering. (April 1967), p. 87.
Schneider, Robert L. "Engineering, Operation and Maintenance of Electro-
static Precipitators on Oepn Hearth Furnaces," Journal of the Air
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Schrecengost, H. A. and M. S. Childers. Fire and Explosion Hazards in
Fluidized-bed Thermal Coal-Dryers. U.S. Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Mines Information Circular 8258. Washington, D. C.: U.S.
Government Printing Office, 1965.
VII-9
-------
Schreter, R. E., Poe, L. G., and Kuska, E. M., Mechanical Engineering.
"Industrial Burners Today and Tomorrow," (June 1970).
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Shannahan, John H. K., Electric Heating Association. Private communication.
Shreve, R. N. The Chemical Process Industries (2nd ed.). New York, N. Y.:
McGraw-Hill, 1956.
Sledjeski, E. W., and R. E. Maples. "Impact of Residual Sulfur Limits on
U. S. Refining."The Oil and Gas Journal. (May 13, 1968), pp. 90-95.
Smallwood, C. Jr. Private communication, August 12, 1969.
Smith, E. L. "Sulfite Pulping and Pollution Control," Combustion. (June 1967),
pp. 42-44.
Smith, W. S. Atmospheric Emissions from Fuel Oil Combustion: An Inventory
Guide. Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-2. Cincinnati,
Ohio: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, (PHS),
November 1962.
Smith, W. S. and C. W. Gruber. Atmospheric Emissions from Coal Combustion:
An Inventory Guide. Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-24.
Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,
(PHS), April 1966.
"Some Solutions to Dust Collecting Problems," Rock Products. Vol. 69, No. 4
(April 1966), pp. 80-84; 116.
"Special Study," Fueloil & Oil Heat. Vol. 28, No. 3 (March 1969), pp. 32;34.
Springer, Karl J. and Allen C. Ludwig. Documentation of the Guide to Good
Practice for Minimum Odor and Smoke from Diesel-Powered Vehicles.
Final Report. San Antonio, Texas: Southwest Research Institute,
November 1969.
Squires, Arthur M. "The Control of SO. from Power Stacks," Chemical
Engineering. (November 6, 1967), pp. 260-267.
Stahman, Ralph C., George D. Kittredge, and Karl J. Springer. "Smoke and
Odor Control for Diesel-Powered Trucks and Buses." Paper presented
at the mid-year meeting of the Society of Engineers, Inc., Detroit,
Michigan, May 20-24, 1968.
Standard and Poor's Industrial Survey. New York: Standard and Poor's Corp.,
[n. d.].
VII-10
-------
Statistics of Electric Utilities in the United States. 1963 Privately Owned.
Federal Power Commission. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1965.
Statistics of Electric Utilities in the United States. 1965 Privately Owned.
Federal Power Commission. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Govenment Printing
Office, 1967.
Statistics of Electric Utilities in the United States. 1967 Privately Owned.
Federal Power Commission. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1969.
The Statistics of Paper. 1968 Supplement. New York, N. Y.: The American
Paper Institute, 1968.
Steam Electric Plant Construction Cost and Annual Production Expenses; Nine-
teenth Annual Supplement, 1967. Federal Power Commission. Washington,
D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967.
Steam Electric Plant Construction Cost and Annual Production Expenses: Twen-
tieth Annual Supplement, 1967. Federal Power Commission. Washington,
D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968.
Sterling, Morton. Current Status and Future Prospects: Foundry Air Pollution
Control. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare, December 12-14, 1966.
Stern, A. C. (ed.). Air Pollution, Vol. Ill (2nd ed.). New York:
Academic Press, 1968.
A Study of the Cement Industry in the State of Missouri for the Air Conservation
Commission of the State of Missouri. Reston, Virginia: Resources
Research, Inc., December 1967.
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