Transportation Controls
To Reduce Motor Vehicle Emissions
IN
Major Metropolitan Areas
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS
TO REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
IN
MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS
Prepared by:
GCA CORPORATION
GCA TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
Bedford, Massachusetts
TRW INC.
TRANSPORTATION & ENVIRONMENTAL OPERATIONS
McLean, Virginia
Contract Nos. 68-02-0041,
68-02-0048
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Research Triangle Park
North Carolina 27711
December 1972
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DISCLAIMER
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency
by the GCA Technology Division and TRW Transportation and
Environmental Operations in fulfillment of Contract Numbers
68-02-0041, Task Orders No. 7 and No. 10; and 68-02-0048, Task
Order No. 11. the contents of this report are reproduced herein
as received from the contractor. The opinions, findings and
conclusions are those of the authors and not necessarily those
of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of company or
product names does not constitute endorsement by the Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
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Acknowledgements
Many individuals and several organizations have been helpful in
carrying out this study; for these contributions the authors extend
sincere gratitude.
Continued project direction and guidance were given by Mr. Fred
Winkler (Project Officer) and Mr. Dave Tammy and Mr. Bob Clark of the
Land Use Planning Branch, EPA, Durham, North Carolina, and members of
EPA Regional Offices.
Many members of local and state agencies supplied data and critical
analysis to the study.
Alan M. Voorhees Associates, Wilbur Smith Associates, and ABT Asso-
ciates acted as subcontractors to GCA Technology Division and supplied
major input to the study especially in the areas of traffic data, control
strategies and implementation obstacles. DeLeuw, Gather and Company, a
TRW subsidiary, provided similar inputs and assistance to TRW.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1-1
1.1 PROGRAM PURPOSE AND DESCRIPTION 1-1
1.2 STUDY LIMITATIONS 1-2
2.0 GENERAL METHODOLOGY 2-1
2.1 EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY ESTIMATES . . . 2-1
2.2 CONTROL MEASURES 2-10
2.3 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION 2-12
3.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS FOR FOURTEEN METROPOLITAN AREAS ... 3-1
3.1 BALTIMORE, MARYLAND 3-3
3.2 BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS 3-8
3.3 DAYTON, OHIO 3-14
3.4 DENVER, COLORADO 3-19
3.5 HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TEXAS 3-26
3.6 -LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 3-31
3.7 NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK 3-40
3.8 PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA 3-47
3.9 PHOENIX/TUCSON, ARIZONA 3-51
3.10 PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA 3-58
3.11 ST, PAUL/MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA 3-62
3.12 SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH 3-68
3.13 SEATTLE, WASHINGTON 3-71
3.14 SPOKANE, WASHINGTON 3-74
APPENDIX A - ATTITUDINAL SURVEY A-l
IV
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Number Title Page
Bal.1 Summary of Expected 1977 ^mission Levels 3-5
Bal.2 Recommended Control Strategies and Their 3-7
Effects
Bos.l Carbon Monoxide Emissions (Kg/Day) and Con- 3-9
centration (ppm) Kenmore Sq. With and Without
Control Strategies
Bos.2 Carbon Monoxide Emissions (Kg/Day) and Con- 3-10
centration (ppm) at Haymarket Sq. With and
Without Control Strategies
Bos.3 Carbon Monoxide Emissions (Kg/Day) and Con- 3-11
centration (ppm) at Science Park With and
Without Control Strategies
Bos.4 Hydrocarbon Emissions (Kg/Day) and Oxidant 3-12
Levels (ppm) Within Rt. 128 Region With and
Without Control Strategies
Bos.5 Emission Reductions With Recommended Control 3-13
Strategies
Day.l 24-Hour Hydrocarbon Emissions For Montgomery 3-16
and Greene Counties (Kg/Day)
Den.l Percent Reductions Achievable For CO 3-21
(Total Emissions)
Den.2 Percent Reductions Achievable For HC 3-22
(Total Emissions)
NY.l Assumed Vehicle Emission Reductions For 3-42
Hardware Control Measures
NY.2 Air Pollutant Emission Estimates For The 3-44
"Worst" Square Miles In Different Areas Of
New York City (Ton/Year)
NY.3 Mobile Source, Stationary Source, and Total 3-45
Emissions of Air Pollutants In The New York
City Area (Ton/Year)
Pitt.l Total Carbon Monoxide Emissions In Kg/Day and 3-60
Expected Maximum Eight-Hour Average CO Con-
centrations In PPM For Pittsburgh, Zone 1
(CBD)
Pitt.2 Total HC Emissions In Kg/Day and Expected 3-51
Maximum One-Hour Average Oxidant Concentra-
tions In PPM For Allegheny County
Minn.l Summary Of Oxidant Air Quality and Hydrocarbon 3-63
Emissions In Minneapolis CBD
Minn.2 Summary Of Oxidant and Air Quality and Hydro- 3-64
carbon Emissions In St. Paul CBD
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LIST OF TABLES (Cont.)
Table Number
Minn. 3
Minn. 4
SLC.l
Sea.l
Spo.l
Title
Summary Of Carbon Monoxide Air Quality and
Emissions In Minneapolis CBD
Summary Of Carbon Monoxide Air Quality and
Emissions In St. Paul CBD
Summary Emission and CO Air Quality Data
For Salt Lake City (Zone H)
Summary Emission and CO Air Quality Data
For Seattle CBD
Summary Emissions and CO Air Quality Data
Page
3-65
3-66
3-69
3-73
3-75
For Spokane CBD
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Number Title Page
3.1 Metropolitan Area Characteristics 3-2
HOU.l Estimated Total Hydrocarbon Emissions In 3-27
1977 Resulting From The Proposed Control
Measures
LA.l Percentage Of Emissions From Major Sources 3-32
In The South Coast Air Basin
LA.2 Major Air Pollutants - Monthly Maximum Hourly 3-33
Averages West San Fernando Valley
LA.3 The Impact Of Proposed Control Strategy On 3-39
Reducing Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 PROGRAM PURPOSE AND DESCRIPTION
Eighteen States must submit definitive transportation control plans
to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) no later than February 15,
1973, for those areas of the State where emissions from transportation
sources have resulted in concentrations of pollutants in excess of the
national ambient air quality standards. To assist the States in the
preparation of these transportation plans, EPA has awarded contracts to
TRW Inc., and its subsidiary De Leuw, Gather and Company and GCA and its
subcontractors, Alan M. Voorhees Associates, William Smith Associates,
and ABT Associates, to develop strategies for fourteen metropolitan areas
that will achieve carbon monoxide and oxidant air quality standards
required to be met by the year 1977. In the performance of this program
the following tasks were performed:
1. Implementation Plan Review to verify and assess the severity of
the carbon monoxide and oxidant pollutant problem.
2. Identification of Transportation Controls. These strategies
considered the impact of the required 1975 motor vehicle controls
on carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions as well as the
assessment of the feasibility of achieving control as estab-
lished by the Six Cities Study.
3. Estimate of Air Quality Impact. Estimate of the likely impact
anticipated from each of the control techniques using established
rollback or modeling methods.
4. Documentation of Implementation Obstacles. The contractor met
with local air pollution and transportation agencies responsible
for implementing the recommended controls for the purpose of
identifying obstacles that can be expected in the implementation
process.
5. Formulation of Surveillance Review Process. The formulation of
a timetable of key checkpoints to be used by EPA in monitoring
implementation progress in achieving transportation control. The
timetable includes the period January 1973 through December 1976.
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Those metropolitan areas specifically investigated are listed below:
TRW (DCCO) GCA, Voorhees. Smith, and ABT
Dayton Baltimore
Denver Boston
Houston/Galveston Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Salt Lake City
New York City Spokane
Philadelphia Seattle
Phoenix/Tucson Minneapolis/St. Paul
Detailed individual reports were prepared for each metropolitan area.
This document is intended to be used in conjunction with these reports as
a guide for the development of transportation strategies for metropolitan
areas having similar air pollution problems. Section 2.0 discusses the
general methodologies employed and Section 3.0 highlights the air quality
problems encountered in the fourteen metropolitan areas and the recommended
transportation strategies.
1.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE TRANSPORTATION CONTROL STRATEGY ANALYSIS
The basic requirement which any acceptable air pollution control
strategy must meet is that emission levels following implementation of the
strategy are consistent with the attainment and maintenance of National
Ambient Air Quality Standards. Satisfaction of this requirement depends
upon a detailed knowledge of current air quality levels and a quantification
of the pollutant emissions in the region. Additionally, an .implementable
transportation control strategy must consider the economic factors associated
with its adoption and also the social and political changes necessary to
accommodate each specific control measure. The air quality benefits of any
action must be thus balanced against the social and economic dislocations
caused by its implementation. Long-term regional transportation goals and
policies must be balanced against the need to achieve specific degrees of
emission reduction by 1977. Limitations in the data available and in the
analytic method used became obvious during the course of this study, and
care must be taken in the interpretation and evaluation of the control strat-
egy recommendations contained in this report. Several specific areas in
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which the present study needs to be confirmed and validated by future study
are listed below.
1.2.1 Air Quality Monitoring
Two basic areas of concern appear in connection with air quality data
available for this project. First and most important, ambient monitoring
at only one point completely fails to give an adequate appreciation of the
regional character of the air pollution problem. It is impossible to de-
termine whether the monitor is being adversely affected by local sources and
thus giving unrealistically high readings in terms of the regional problem
or conversely, whether there are areas of maximum ambient pollution that
are being completely unmonitored. The only solution to this problem lies
in increasing the number and geographical spread of ambient monitors. Data
from the extended monitoring network should be used to constantly evaluate
and update the control strategy presented in this document. The second
problem concerning the use of air quality monitoring data lies in the
statistical manipulations and projections used to determine the required
level of reduction for the attainment of standards. Basing an extensive
control program on measurements obtained in one or two hours per year may
lead to the imposition of unduly strict control measures. The trend of
ambient measurements during the period before the target year of 1977 must
be carefully watched and used to adjust control measures according to
observed ambient conditions. Further, specific high measurements obviously
due to adverse meteorological conditions may be considered as episode
control situations and may not require the imposition of long-term trans-
portation control strategies for their solution.
1.2.2 Emission Factors
The mobile source emission estimates utilized in this study are based
upon the best currently available emission factor estimates. These emission
estimates are in the process of updating and revision with both in-use and
new vehicle testing programs, conducted by the Environmental Protection
Agency. The applicability of the standard testing driving cycle to the
driving patterns in each metropolitan area is questionable, Further, there
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are many trip types making up the total vehicle miles traveled in each area;
and it has not been possible on the basis of currently available data to
distinguish in an air pollution emissions sense between the different driving
modes used. It is highly recommended that new emission factors be utilized
as they become available to recompute and redefine the severity of the
mobile source generated emissions in the region. Finally, the emission
factors used in the study relate speed to emissions only on the basis of
the integrated driving cycle. This has prevented the accurate assessment
of changes in emissions due to improvement in traffic flow characteristics
in core, center city areas.
1.2.3 Cold-Start Emissions
Preliminary data have shown that the emissions generated during the
first few minutes of vehicle operations represent a large and increasing
portion of the total emissions during any individual vehicle trip. The
implications of this fact are that to truly reduce mobile source emissions
it may be necessary to address the reduction in total vehicle trips rather
than merely reducing the number of vehicles miles traveled. Unfortunately,
the data relating to this phenomena were not sufficiently developed to be
used in the analysis presented in this study. A potential control strategy
to reduce the high level of cold start emissions might be the direct
control of emissions from parking structures which act as stationary sources.
Again, it has not been possible to quantitatively describe the effect of this
type measure on the regional air pollution problem in this report.
1.2.4 Traffic Data and Projections
Traffic data and traffic projections have not historically been col-
lected with a view to the estimation of motor vehicle air pollution emissions.
This fact has necessitated the reworking of traffic data including vehicle
flows, speeds and modal mixes into the format necessary for emission cal-
culations. Certain assumptions and potential Inaccuracies have been
introduced by this process. Further the use of trends and projections in
vehicle growth have been prepared by various agencies and often little
unanimity has been found concerning appropriate growth rates. These data
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in certain cases require that a close watch be maintained both on traffic
changes and ambient air quality during the period between now and full
strategy implementation so that any deviations from the expected vehicle
emission rates can be determined and appropriate adjustments made in the
control strategy. It should be noted that stationary source emission
projections also suffer from inaccuracies in the projection of industrial
growth and in the application of as yet untested control technologies to
control of these stationary sources.
1.2.5 Analytic Techniques Used
The key analytic calculation performed in this study is the relation
between emission levels and ambient air quality. Due to the time restraints
it was not possible to utilize sophisticated mathematical modeling techniques
in the development of this relation between emissions and air quality. Con-
trol strategy reductions were thus based on proportional rollback techniques
relating existing emissions and air quality on a proportional basis. The
use of modeling is highly recommended since it will both include the effects
of local meteorological and topographical features and indicate, in a way
that rollback estimation cannot, the geographical extent of the regional
air pollution problem. Such modeling and simulation exercises using models
currently under development should be carried out during the years between
now and 1977 and should be used to modify, if required, the control strategy
recommended in this document.
1.2.6 Effects of Control Measures
It was generally not possible to expressly quantify the emission reduc-
tion effect of many of the control measures considered in this document.
For example, the effect of the inspection and maintenance program depends
strongly upon the exact test procedure used, maintenance recommendations,
the quality and availability of trained mechanics and a host of other factors
which were impossible to define exactly during this study. Similarly, mass
transit improvements can be expected to reduce vehicle miles traveled within
the region. However, the extent of this reduction is unknown and specific
data concerning the economic elasticity of the various travel demands, the
modal split of trips within the region, and many other factors need to be
carefully evaluated before a quantitative estimate can be prepared.
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It is strongly recommended that programs be instituted to provide
additional data and to apply more sophisticated analytic techniques in the
areas listed above. Work must begin upon the implementation of the required
regional control measures; however, final implementation and enforcement
should be dependent upon data collected during calendar years 1973, 1974,
and even 1975. Full consideration must be given to the political,
jurisdictional and social impact of all control actions. The control
strategy presented in this document must be considered as an Initial
attempt to quantify the relationship between transportation processes and
the regional air pollution problem. The further study indicated should be
used to modify this baseline effort. The air pollution implications of
the transportation process are very complex and a modification of this
process can potentially effect significant changes in the social and
economic character of the metropolitan region.
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2.0 GENERAL METHODOLOGY
Transportation control measures must be defined which will reduce
mobile source emissions to a level which will allow compliance with the
Federal air quality standards. The technical approach is to select
candidate control measures and quantify where possible the emissions
reductions expected. Control strategy development includes the following
tasks:
• Development of emissions and air quality estimates.
• Definition of Control Measures - Transportation control measures
fall into two categories; exhaust emission reductions and
reduction of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). These control
measures may be both long and short-term and region-wide or area
specific in extent.
• Analysis of the socioeconomic impact of strategies and the
obstacles to their implementation
These subtasks are described in the following sections.
2.1 EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY ESTIMATES
2.1.1 Emissions Estimates
A vehicle emission estimate is the product of two factors; vehicle
miles travelled (VMT) and an emission factor or rate. The techniques
employed for the determination of VMT, speeds, and vehicle age distribu-
tions varied widely from city to city and descriptions of these techniques
can be found in the individual city reports. The vehicle emission factors
used in this study are based on measured and projected emission rates for
each vehicle class considering age of vehicle, effectiveness of emission
controls, average speed, and vehicle age distribution. The impact of
Federal new car standards is considered in both the present and projected
vehicles. The emission factor development followed the procedure developed
by Kircher and Armstrong' ' of the EPA. A summary of the procedure is given below.
D. S. Kircher and D. P. Armstrong, "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle
Emission Estimation," Environmental Protection Agency, October 1972.
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EMISSION FACTOR CALCULATIONS
The equation for calculating emission factors is shown below:
n+1
enp =i=n-12 Ci--d1 mi Sl
where,
e = emission factor in grams per vehicle mile for
calendar year n and pollutant p,
c.. = the 1975 Federal test procedure emission rate for
th
pollut nt p (grams/mile) for the 1 model year,
~ ~ i
at low mileage
.dj = the controlled vehicle pollutant p emission deteriora-
tion factor for the 1 model year at calendar year n,
m^ = the weighted annual travel of the 1_ model year during
calendar year n (The determination of this variable
involves the use of the vehicle model year distribution),
Sj = the weighted speed adjustment factor for the 1 - model
year vehicles.
CT is based on a recent study of light duty vehicle exhaust emission rates
in six cities, dj, deterioration factor accounts for the aging or
deterioration of emission control devices, m^, weighted annual mileage
is determined as follows,
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mi =VxD
EV x D
V = fraction of each model year vehicle in use on December
31 of year
D = average miles driven of each model year vehicle
s., speed adjustment factor, varies inversely with average route speed.
1975 and later model years are assumed to have a factor of one.
Emission estimates for non-vehicular sources and their projected
growths were obtained from the state implementation plans.
2.1.2 Air Quality Estimates
In order to evaluate the acceptability of a transportation control
measure it was necessary to compare the estimated emissions following
application of that control measure with an "allowable emission rate" or
goal to be achieved. This "allowable emission rate" must be extrapolated
from existing air quality data.
Air quality standards to be attained are prescribed by the Federal
government in terms of concentration values (parts per million, or micro-
grams per cubic meter) and not emission values. Therefore, some system
of conversion must be employed to quantitatively assess the effect of
emissions and changes in emission rates on concentration values. Several
methods are currently available ranging from simple rollback proportioning
through very elaborate and detailed computerized diffusion models.
The proportional rollback method assumes the existence of a linear
relationship between emissions and air quality. A given percentage change
in emissions produces the same percentage change in air quality. It also
assumes a homogeneous distribution of emission changes and effects of emis-
sion changes over the region under consideration. No consideration is made
of meteorology, topography, atmospheric residence time, pollutant half life,
photochemical reactivity, or any of the many other complex variables affecting
the relationship between emissions and air quality.
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Modeling techniques consider some or all of the above variables
were utilized when applicable. These models require great quantities of
detailed input data, and extensive amounts of time and money in order to
obtain results.
In selecting a technique to be used, several compromises and trade-
offs must be made. Proportional rollback modeling is fast and inexpensive,
and requires very little accumulation of input data. The results are easy
to interpret, but due to limitations discussed above, they are not highly
accurate. If extremely accurate results are desired, detailed data is
complete and accessible, and if time and funds are freely available, then
sophisticated computer modeling should be used. Care should be taken,
however, not to attempt to use a method which requires a greater degree
of input data accuracy than that which is available. Inaccurate or
incomplete input data will produce inaccurate results in both sophisticated
and simple models.
There are many variations of these modeling techniques which
incorporate some of the advantages of each extreme. Some form of propor-
tional "rollback" has been used in each of the metropolitan areas studied.
The specific application of this technique varied considerably in order to
accommodate the wide range of input data and output requirements. A
sample methodology for the application of a modified proportional "roll-
back" to CO and oxidants is given below.
Sample Methodology for Carbon Monoxide
Because ambient concentrations of carbon monoxide at any given
location appear to be highly dependent on carbon monoxide emissions in
the near vicinity, it was felt that some justification existed for a
modification of the proportional model. It was felt that in order to
reduce ambient CO levels in, for example, a central business district
(CBD), it would be more appropriate to roll back CO emissions in the CBD
itself, rather than the entire air quality region. The assumption was
therefore made that pollutant concentration in any given zone was directly
proportional to the emission rate of that pollutant emission within that
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zone. Accordingly, each city area was divided into traffic zones — about
the size of the central business district (CBD) in the center of the city
with increasingly larger zones towards the suburban areas. Where traffic
data were already available for existing "traffic districts," the traffic
zones were either the traffic districts themselves or suitable aggregations
thereof. Otherwise, the traffic zones were based on rectangular grids.
An emission density/concentration ratio (e/c ratio) was assigned
to each sensor, the e/c ratio being based on the total CO emission density
(expressed in Kg/sq. mile/24 hrs.) for the base year within the zone in
which the sensor was located, and the CO concentration value which formed
the basis of the proportional rollback computations. Based on the e/c
ratios so obtained, the maximum allowable emission density was derived
which corresponded to the national air quality level to be achieved (i.e.,
9 ppm for an eight-hour average). Maps showing the emission densities for
each zone were then prepared for years 1977, etc., based on the predicted
vehicular and non-vehicular emissions for those years. Vehicular emissions
were based on traffic patterns predicted for those years in the absence of
any transportation controls imposed in order to meet national air quality
standards for CO (the "no strategy case"). Non-vehicular emissions for
the years of interest were obtained from state implementation plans and
state agencies, and take into account predicted growth and the predicted
control strategies to be applied to those sources.
From these maps, the zones in which emissions exceeding the maximum
allowable density were identified. On the assumption that the predicted
emission densities from non-vehicular sources were to be taken as irreducible,
the allowable emissions from motor vehicles in each zone for the year of
interest were then determined. For the purposes of evaluating the effects
of candidate transportation controls, the maximum allowable emission density
for the year 1977 was expressed as a percentage reduction from the 1977
"no strategy" emission density. However, as each control measure was
developed, emissions were recomputed, using the revised VMT's and speeds
resulting from the application of the control measures.
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Discussion of Sample Methodology for Carbon Monoxide
The applications and the limitations of the conventional propor-
(2)
tional rollback method have been well documented and reviewedv ' and need
not be discussed further here. The technique used in the present study
was an extension of the conventional rollback technique to the extent that
it was assumed first, that the constant of proportionality between emissions
and concentration may be derived from emissions emanating from the rela-
tively small area around the sensor (the traffic zone), and second, that
this constant of proportionality (the emission/concentration ratio) could
be applied to determine pollutant concentrations in other zones of
comparable area on the basis of the pollutant emissions in those zones.
Some justification of the first assumption can be found, for
example, in recent work of Hanna^ ' and Gifford^ ' who demonstrate the
dominance of urban pollution patterns by the distribution of the local
area sources. The success of their urban diffusion model, in which
concentration is simply directly proportional to the area source strength
and inversely proportional to wind speed, is attributed largely to the
relatively uniform distribution of emission within an urban area and the
rate at which the effect of an area source upon a given receptor decreases
with distance. In the proportional model, meteorological effects, such as
wind speed, are assumed to be duplicated over one-year periods. The
validity of the second assumption depends, in large part, upon the extent
to which diffusion and transport parameters are uniform from zone to zone--
a factor which could not be investigated because of the constraints of the
program. Thus, it was felt that, in the absence of a more sophisticated
technique, the use of this extension to the proportional model was
de Nevers, "Rollback Modelling, Basic and Modified," Draft
Document, EPA, Durham, N. C. August 1972.
^Hanna, S. R., "A Simple Method of Calculating Dispersion from Urban
Area Sources," J. APCA 21_, 774-777 (December 1971)
(4'liifford, f. A., "Applications of a Simple Urban Pollution Model,"
(yaper presented at the Conference on Urban Environment and Second Con-
ference on Biometeorology of the Amer. Meteor. Soc., October 31 - Novem-
ber 2, 1972, Philadelphia, Pa.)
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justified first, to obtain some assessment as to whether the existing
sensors were located in the hot-spots, and second, to obtain some assurance
that transportation strategies intended to reduce emission densities in one
zone (to the level required to meet ambient standards) did not increase
emission densities to unacceptable levels in adjacent zones. In some
cities it was found that the sensors were, in fact, in the "hot spot" zones
and also that the recommended transportation controls did not increase
emissions in adjacent areas to unacceptable levels. Thus the final roll-
backs were confined to the zones with a sensor within their boundaries and
the extensions of the techniques to other non-sensor zones did not, there-
fore, play a primary role in the final computations.
As might be expected, where an urban area had several sensors, the
emission concentration ratios were widely different and this served to
underline the fundamental limitations of the technique employed. An implicit
assumption in the technique employed was that the air quality in a traffic
zone could be fairly represented by one concentration level and that this
level depended only upon the average emission density within that zone.
The two major factors mitigating against this assumption are:
a) Emission densities are not uniform across even a small traffic
zone.
b) Concentration levels are not uniform across the traffic zone
partly because of the lack of uniformity of emission density
and partly because the point surface concentrations are
affected by micrometeorology and microtopography as well as
emission density.
Considerable judgment had to be used, therefore, both in the derivation
of e/c ratios and in their subsequent use. In heavily trafficked downtown
areas the variation was judged not to be too great, so that the single
recorded concentration might reasonably be expected to be representative
of the zone's air quality and emission density. However, in suburban
zones having overall low traffic densities, sensors were often found to
be placed at very localized hot spots, such as a traffic circle, so that
the recorded concentration levels were neither representative of the over-
all air quality nor of the overall emission density in the zone.
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Accordingly, e/c ratios were generally derived from sensors in the
central areas of the cities and applied to suburban areas for the predic-
tion of 1977 concentration levels. This procedure gave air quality levels
which were generally representative of the suburban zone. However, it must
be realized that control strategies based on this procedure, while they
may insure that the overall air quality in a suburban zone will not exceed
ambient standards, do not preclude the occurrence of higher concentrations
in very localized hot spots such as might occur in the immediate vicinity
of a major traffic intersection.
Seasonal and Diurnal Variations
The carbon monoxide concentration level chosen as the basis for the
base year e/c ratio in any zone was, in all cases, the highest valid eight-
hour average observed during the base year. The one-hour average either
never exceeded the standard or was very much closer to the standard than
the eight-hour average, so that controls required to meet the eight-hour
standard would also result in the one-hour standard being met. Motor
vehicle emissions over 24 hours, 12 hours and max eight-hour periods were
compared with sensor readings and the most appropriate period of time
selected on which to base calculations of emission density. Although
seasonal variations in readings were noted, traffic data was not available
on a seasonal basis, so that vehicle emissions were based on annual average
work day traffic data.
Background Concentrations
Background concentration levels of CO were not taken into account.
Where a zone was located near a large point source, simple "worst case"
diffusion calculations were performed to assess the effect of the point
source on the zone. In all cases, it was found that this contribution
was negligible. Where a zone actually contained a large point source,
its emissions were found to be much greater than automotive emissions
within the zone and any problem in that zone was regarded as due entirely
to the stationary source.
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Sample Methodology and Discussion for Qxidants
The technique employed for oxidants was basically the same as has
just been described for CO with the major difference that only one, very
much larger area was used as the basis for the proportional rollback.
Because of the length of time required for the formation of oxidants from
hydrocarbon emissions, the relatively small areas used as the basis for
CO could not be justified. The actual area used in each city was largely
a matter of judgment and, in general, was about the size of the metropolitan
area. The reductions in hydrocarbon emissions necessary to achieve oxidant
ambient standards were obtained from Appendix J, Federal Register of
August 14, 1971.
In some cities the use of the larger area presented two problems.
First, where there was more than one valid oxidant sensor within the area,
the question arose as to which gave readings best representative of the
area's air quality,and usually the sensor giving the highest reading was
selected. Second, it was found for some cities that the amount of rollback
required for vehicle hydrocarbon emissions was significantly sensitive
to the size of the area selected. Generally, it was found that vehicle
emissions peaked sharply in the CBD and tapered off towards suburban areas,
while non-vehicular emissions were relatively evenly distributed over the
metropolitan area. Thus, if a relatively small rollback area (encompassing
the CBD) was selected, vehicle emissions constituted the major portion of
the total emissions. On the other hand, if an entire metropolitan area
was selected, non-vehicular emissions could constitute more than half the
total emissions. Since the predicted 1977 non-vehicular emissions were
considered to be irreducible, the total required rollback from the "no-
transportation strategy case" had to be obtained from reductions in
vehicular emissions; and where the total emission rollback was required
to be about 50 percent or more, the vehicular emission rollback became
very sensitive to the ratio of the vehicular emissions to total emissions.
For example, for the case of a required total emission rollback of 50
percent, if non-vehicular emissions were 20 percent of total emissions, a
rollback of about 62 percent of vehicular emissions would be required;
while if non-vehicular emissions were 40 percent of total emissions, a
rollback of about 83 percent in vehicular emissions would be required.
2-9
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2.2 CONTROL MEASURES CONSIDERED
Vehicle emissions control measures fall into two categories - direct
exhaust emission controls, and indirect control through the reduction of
vehicle miles of travel (VMT) or vehicle use. The major types of control
measures in these categories are discussed below. The specific elements
of these control measures applicable to each city are given in Sections
3.1-3.14 of this report.
2.2.1 Exhaust Emission Controls
Four major types of exhaust emission control measures have been
considered as follows:
• Federal emissions control requirements for new cars.
• Inspection/Maintenance Programs (I/M).
• Retrofit of Light Duty Vehicles (LDV).
t Gaseous fuels conversion.
The main advantage of this group of control measures is- tftat their
impact is region-wide. This is important because physical and meteoro-
logical conditions cause all emission areas to contribute to the formation
of critical concentration zones. An area-wide control measure also helps
maintain the air quality in areas not currently exceeding the standards
and provides for some control in areas which may exceed the standards but
are not currently monitored.
Each of the four types of exhaust emission controls are discussed
briefly below. They are discussed in detail in the EPA document "Control
Strategies for In-Use Vehicles".
• Federal Emissions Control Requirements For New Cars.
The Federal 1975 standards for new cars are assumed to be met.
Though these controls are highly effective in reducing emissions
the turnover rate by 1977 will not be sufficient to meet the
required reductions in most of the fourteen metropolitan areas
studied.
2-10
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t Inspection/Maintenance (I/M).
The many varieties of programs and their benefits are discussed
in detail in "Control Strategies for In-Use Vehicles". An
"Inspection/Maintenance" program is defined as a means to reduce
emissions from in-use vehicles through identifying those vehicles
that need emission control related maintenance and requiring that
such maintenance be performed. The reason that such a program
can achieve additional reductions is that current in-use emission
control devices deteriorate or their effectiveness deteriorates
due to other automotive parameters such as a poorly tuned engine.
Therefore the purpose of an I/M program is to maintain exhaust
emissions from in-use vehicles as close to the standards of the
new vehicle as possible and thereby gain the maximum benefit
from emission control technology.
• Retrofit of Light Duty Vehicles (LDV).
The majority of retrofit devices are designed for installation
in pre-controlled or pre-1968 light duty vehicles although some
can be effective on other vehicles. There are two prime con-
siderations for selecting retrofit devices; which pollutant do
they most effectively reduce and what segment of the automotive
population is affected. Although the retrofit devices are very
effective in reducing emissions from these vehicles the added
reduction in total emissions by 1977 is generally less than
10 percent of the total emissions. There are however, two
advantages to this control measure, its impact is region-wide,
and it is directed at the worst polluters.
• Gaseous Fuel Conversion.
Recommendations for the use of gaseous fuel conversion is limited
to metropolitan areas where large, centrally located fleet travel
represents a significant portion of the total VMT. It is further
restricted by the limited supply of such fuels in many areas.
2-11
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2.2.2 VMT Reduction
Long-term VMT reduction measures such as mass transportation
systems not currently planned for completion by 1976 will have little
impact on meeting the air quality standards by 1977; however, their
impact beyond 1980 could be significant.
The short-term reduction measures consist of methods to encourage
use of existing and immediately planned public transportation and methods
to directly or indirectly reduce actual trips or VMT. Samples of these
groups of short-term measures are listed below:
Methods to Encourage Methods to Reduce
Use of Public Transportation Actual Trips or VMT
Improved Bus Service Pollution Tax
Peripheral Parking Wheel Tax
Park-And-Ride Systems Gas Rationing
Exclusive Bus Lanes Auto-Free Zones
Subsidized Transit Systems Parking Limitations
Carpooling
Improved Traffic Flow
The majority of the encouragement methods will not achieve a significant
VMT reduction without the imposition of direct vehicle restraints.
2.3 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION
Each of the major categories of air pollution control measures has a
varying potential for effective implementation in the study areas. A mail
panel survey^ ' of seven Metropolitan areas, for example, (see Appendix A)
indicated a greater awareness of a nationwide air pollution problem than
a local air pollution problem. Acceptability responses of various control
measures were conditioned by the financial cost to individual motorists,
the degree to which motorists might be limited in the use of their auto-
mobiles, and the inconvenience of the control measures. Long-term
measures, such as public transportation improvements, generally are
acceptable and desirable even though reducing air pollution may not be
1 - bee Appendix a for complete discussion of tne mail panel survey.
2-12
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the primary reason for implementing this measure. On other specific
actions which would be required as segments of other measures, the panel
survey was inconclusive. For example, a tax on all day parking, and any
restriction on non-essential auto travel had approximately as many
respondents for as against these measure.
The primary control measures reducing air pollution—that of
fitting control devices to cars and mandatory inspections to assure
their continued effectiveness—seem to be the most acceptable.
2.3.1 New Car Standards
The Federal new car pollution standards seem to have been accepted
and anticipated with little concern for increased costs for new cars so
equipped.
2.3.2 Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance
Two factors must be designed into the inspection process and
specifically included in expanded enabling legislation. The inspection
charges must be reasonable—the mail panel survey favored a fee of less
than $5 annually—and it must be convenient. During various discussions
in the cities, some opposition was encountered to having an inspection
program imposed on a statewide basis to solve a metropolitan problem.
2.3.3 Retrofit of Pre-1968 Cars
The ease of adopting legislation to require the installation of
retrofit devices on cars built before 1968 will be directly related to
the cost of installing their devices. While the majority of the panel
respondents favored this action if it cost under $50, few felt that it
would be justified at a cost of $200 per car.
Costs for retrofitting pre-1968 motor vehicles in the $200 range
could be equal to or in excess of the actual market value of the car. To
the extent that this level of cost might eliminate the second car in a
2-13
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family, it would be beneficial to reducing air pollution from light duty
vehicles. Although the ownership of older cars by level of income is not
known, this requirement could impose a serious financial burden on lower
income families.
2.3.4 Vehicle Use Reduction
The predominant opposition to vehicle restraints suggested by the
mail survey indicates restraints are not measures readily acceptable by
the public. Suggested measures included such constraints as a very high
($500) registration fee, gasoline rationing, or tolls on exit ramps of
freeways. Inherent to constraining the use of the automobile is the
mandatory provision of making available some alternative mode of
transportation.
The more severe restrictions on the use of motor vehicles could be
recommended. However, on the basis of travel forecasts made available
for this study and limited air monitoring data, these measures could
become controversial. They will have a major impact on the economic and
social character of the region. It is recommended that several actions
be undertaken to increase the ability to quantify the effectiveness of
these control measures before actually implementing them.
A network of air monitoring stations must be established throughout
the region to (1) obtain comprehensive air data for evaluation; (2) deter-
mine the actual impact of the more palatable inspection and retrofit
controls; and (3) to support the need for the more severe traffic
restrictive controls. Traffic forecasts measuring effects of alternative
approaches to emission factors, and refinement of modal use and sensitivity
analysis also should be undertaken.
Based on these continuing studies, a greater refinement in the air
pollution analysis can be undertaken, pollution criteria reevaluated, and
more accurate quantification of solutions undertaken to support a greater
reliance on the appropriateness of the required control measures.
2-14
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Pending adequate basic data for imposing control measures requiring
massive outlays of public funds, economically impacting major areas of the
city, or requiring the resident to substantially modify his travel habits,
the less severe measures which can be initiated include the following.
2.3.5 Car Pooling
Encouraging car pooling can result in some reduction of air
pollution without major social or economic impacts. A small percentage
of respondents to the survey indicated that they now participate in car
pools, the majority indicated an interest in them, but only about 10%
indicated that, if necessary, it would be easy to get into one.
2.3.6 Peripheral Parking, Exclusive Bus Lanes
The two most acceptable motor vehicle restraints indicated by
survey respondents were creating exclusive bus lanes and prohibiting
traffic or parking in the CBD. Any prohibition of traffic or parking in
the CBD, however, will require an effective program of peripheral parking
and transit within the CBD. Increased effectiveness of the present "park-
and-ride" programs will be necessary. Both of these control measures
assumes an improved bus transportation.
2.3.7 Improved Bus Transportation
The improvement of the bus service in most metropolitan areas is
currently under way. The air pollution control measures have assumed
that these improvements will continue as planned and may include such
service improvements as: express bus service, exclusive bus lanes,
peripheral parking, "PRT" personnel rapid transit, regional bus network,
and greater improved transit service.
Refinement of presently used mechanisms for furnishing bus service
outside the city limits, or additional legislation, will be necessary.
Although major economic investments will be required, they have
already been justified as a cost of a balanced transportation system.
2-15
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2.3.8 Long-Term Measures
Limited planning programs have already been established and work is
presently under way to achieve the coordination of land use planning and
transportation-related environmental factors.
These long-term approaches to solving urban problems are generally
accepted by both the citizens surveyed and the public officials contacted.
Although not initially justified for the reduction of air pollution, they
furnish one of the more acceptable long-term measures to accomplish this
goal.
2-16
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3.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS FOR FOURTEEN METROPOLITAN AREAS
This section presents brief summaries of the air pollution problems
encountered and the concomitant transportation strategies recommended, for
each of the fourteen urban areas studied. Some primary characteristics
of the fourteen cities studied are presented in Figure 3.1, together with
major parameters of their pollution problem. While this matrix will
assist in identifying those cities having characteristics and air pollution
problem parameters similar to the city of interest it should be emphasized
that the strategies presented are very specific to the city for which they
were developed and there is not necessarily a strong relationship between
the parameters presented and the strategies recommended for each city.
3-1
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3.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND
3.1.1 Air Quality and Emissions Reductions
The existing air quality levels in Baltimore are monitored by two
networks of sensors, one of which provided CO data at a number of sites
throughout the areas, the other providing oxidant data for the center
city only. One network operates stations throughout the urban area and
provided the carbon monoxide data used herein; after extensive validation,
data were available from seven sites. The maximum eight-hour average
levels range from 20.6 ppm at a site in the center city area (though not
in the CBD) to 9.9 and 7.0 ppm at outlying suburban sites. Using the
empirical relation between air quality and emissions developed from these
sites, it is estimated that the maximum eight-hour CO level in the densest
portion of the city is about 30 ppm.
The only oxidant data available from these stations are from
phenolphthalein grab samples, and in the past has generally indicated
minimal oxidant problem. However, reference method data from the new
state network's center city have very recently become available; and data
from the summer of 1972 indicate a much more severe oxidant problem, with
a maximum one-hour level of 0.21 ppm. Thus, these latter data were used
for the evaluation here.
In the case of carbon monoxide, an empirical relation was developed
between air quality at a site and the emission density in its vicinity.
This relation was then used in conjunction with projected 1977 emission
densities to predict the 1977 air quality in three separate analysis areas.
The results, which included the reduction through the Federal Motor Vehicle
Pollution Control Program (FMVPCP), were compared with the national air
quality standards to determine any further reductions required. In the
case of oxidants, the standard relationship derived by EPA enabled the
direct determination of the total hydrocarbon reductions required (69 per-
cent) and any additional over that provided by the federal programs.
3-3
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With this methodology, it was determined that the oxidant standard
will not be met in 1977. The one-hour carbon monoxide standard, which is
only slightly exceeded at present, will clearly be met in 1977. The
eight-hour CO standard will be met in the Urban Fringe and Suburban analysis
areas but will not be met in the Central Area in 1977 without further
transportation control efforts.
The oxidant levels will require a reduction in regional total
hydrocarbon emissions of aroud 40 percent of the already reduced 1977
level, which requires a 56 percent reduction in motor vehicle emissions.
This is based on an inventory of emissions in the 6-9 a.m. period; since
the problem is severe, this further refinement was felt desirable, i-leeting
the eight-hour CO standard in the 11-square-mile Central Area of the region
will require a 36.8 percent reduction in the motor vehicle portion of the
emissions. Table Bal .1 presents a quantitative summary of these expected
emission levels and required further reductions, with 1970 emissions
included for comparison.
These conclusions, and the methodology by which they were developed,
represent GCA Technology Division's best assessment of the problem; neither
the methodology nor the conclusions have yet been accepted by the Air
Quality Task Force, although the Maryland BAQC representatives have
recommended that they be so accepted. This is, no doubt, partially due
to the extreme nature of the problem as developed, particularly in the
case of hydrocarbons.
3.1.2 Control Strategy
Despite major implementation obstacles associated with some of the
candidate strategies, the severity of the problem, particularly the
oxidant-hydrocarbon problem, requires the choice of all the most effective
possibilities, including a retrofit program with an associated inspection
and maintenance program, and the total subsidy of transit fares. The
maximum possible reduction of emissions from light-duty vehicles is not
completely sufficient, so a program of evaporative and crankcase control
device retrofit for heavy-duty vehicles is necessary. Specifically, the
following are recommended:
3-4
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Table Bal.l. SUMMARY OF EXPECTED 1977 EMISSION LEVELS
6-9 a.m. CARBON MONOXIDE (kg/mi2/day)
HYDROCARBONS
(kg/day) CBMTRAL URBAN FRINGE SUBURBS
1970 Total
58,850
10,281
3,787
780
1977:
Light-duty vehicles
Heavy-duty vehicles
Other
Total
AQ Std. Equivalent
11,770
9,600
8,990
30,360
18,244
2,824
1,793
251
4,868
3,078
1,050
666
90
1,806
3,078
235
149
145
529
3,078
Further Reduction
Required
12,116
1,790
Stationary Sources and non-gasoline vehicles
3-5
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1. Traffic flow improvements
2. Bus transit service improvements
3. Total subsidy of bus transit operations
4. Mandatory retrofit of uncontrolled vehicles:
a. Catalytic converters on pre-1975 light-duty
vehicles
b. Crankcase and evaporative controls on pre-
1973 heavy-duty vehicles
5. Annual inspection and mandatory maintenance
The detailed reductions produced and the calculation of their total
effect are shown in the following Table Bal.2. Note that the order of
their presentation is dictated by the needs of the calculations, and not
by preference for the various component strategies.
3-6
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Table Bal.2. RECOMMENDED CONTROL STRATEGIES AND THEIR EFFECTS
Control Action
1977 Expected
Traffic flow im-
provements to
increase speed
Total subsidy of
transit fares
with associated
service improve-
ments and parking
restraints
Inspection and
maintenance pro-
gram
Control Device
Retrofit:
a) Catalytic con-
verters on pre-
1975 light-duty
vehicles
b) Evaporative
and crankcase
control on pre-
1973 heavy-duty
gasoline vehicles
Hydrocarbon Emissions (kg/day)
6-9 a.m. peak
Effect Emissions Total Further Reduction
Emissions de-
crease equiva-
lent to 107.
VMT reduction
157o decrease
in VMT
Effective emission
reduction: HC-4.017«
and CO -3. 197,*
Effective emission
reduction: HC-23.337.
and CO-27.337»
Reduction of hydro-
carbon emissions by
6.87» of heavy-duty
vehicle contribution
30,360
- 2,162
28,198
- 3,243
24,955
650
24,305
- 3,783
20,522
- 2,612
17,910
12,116
- 2,162
9,954
- 3,243
6,711
650
6,061
- 3.783
2,278
- 2,612
0
Carbon Monoxide-Central Area
(kg/mi2/day)
Emission Density Further Reduction
4,868 1>790
- 467 - 467
4,401 1,323
- 700 - 700
3,701 623
- 112 - 112
3,589 511
- 957 - 957
2,632 0
- - - No CO Effect- - -
In both cases, % reductions apply to the 757» of motor vehicle emissions remaining after VMT reductions.
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3.2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
3.2.1 Air Quality and Emissions
Carbon Monoxide Air Quality and Emissions
The eight-hour average CO air quality will not be achieved by 1977
in several zones in the inner city of Boston with the CO emission reduc-
tions obtained from the Federal Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program.
Three zones (Kenmore Square, Haymarket Square-Government Center and Science
Park) will exceed the standard by a substantial amount, while two others
(the East Boston Area by the Sumner-Callahan Tunnel and the Washington
Street-Albany Street Area) will exceed it slightly. Tables Bos.l, Bos.2,
and Bos.3 summarize the emissions and air quality in the three most crit-
ical zones with and without the application of the recommended control
strategies. The other two zones will easily attain the air quality when
any of the recommended transportation controls are applied.
Oxidant Air Quality and Hydrocarbon Emissions
The oxidant problem in Metropolitan Boston is regional and assumed
to be uniform within the Route 128 area. A 25 percent reduction by 1977
in hydrocarbon emissions will be needed in addition to that which is attained
by the Federal Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program (FMVECP) and the
reduction of the stationary sources. Table Bos.4 summarizes the emissions
and air quality in the area within Route 128 with and without the applica-
tion of the recommended control strategies.
3.2.2 Control Strategies
The following transportation control strategies are recommended for
implementation within the Route 128 boundary and their projected impact
over the years is shown in Figues Bos.l and Bos.2.
a. A Source Oriented Control Strategy consisting of Inspection-
Maintenance and Retrofit estimated to reduce emissions as
summarized in Table Bos.5.
b. A Transportation Oriented Control Strategy consisting of a CBD
Parking Management, Peripheral Parking Facilities, moderate
Transit Improvements, Road Pricing and Traffic Flow Improvements.
These are estimated to reduce emissions in the inner city and
throughout the region by the percent shown in Table Bos.5.
3-8
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TABLE BOS.l
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS (KG/DAY) AND CONCENTRATION (PPM)
KENMORE SQ. WITH AND WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
Vehicular Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
CO Level
(8-hour Average)
Vehicular Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
CO Level
(8-hour Average)
1977
Present without
1970 strategy
13,130 7,164
45 54
13,175 7,218
22.4 12.3
Without Strategies
1978 1979 1981
5,917 4,852 3,468
56 58 63
5,973 4,910 3,531
10.1 8.3 6.0
1977
with
strategy
3,790
54
3,844
6.5
1984
2,339
70
2,409
4.1
Area = 0.471 sq. mi.
3-9
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TABLE BOS.2
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS (KG/DAY) AND CONCENTRATION (PPM)
AT HAYMARKET SQ. WITH AND WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
Vehicular Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
CO Level
(8-hour Average)
Present
1970
12,119
45
12,164
20.7
1977
without
strategy
7,837
54
7,891
13.4
1977
with
strategy
4,195
54
4,249
7.2
1978 1979
wi thout
strategy
6,472
55
6,527
11.1
5,306
57
5,363
9.1
Area = 0.471 sq. mi.
3-10
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TABLE BOS.3
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS (KG/DAY) AND CONCENTRATION (PPM)
AT SCIENCE PARK WITH AND WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
Vehicular Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
CO Level
(8-hour Average)
Present
1970
14,148
45
14,193
24.2
1977
without
strategy
8,658
54
8,712
14.8
1977
with
strategy
4,645
54
4,699
8.0
1978 1979
without
strategy
7,238
55
7,293
12.4
6,027
57
6,084
10.4
Area = 0.471 sq. mi.
3-11
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TABLE BOS.4
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS (KG/DAY) AND OXIDANT LEVELS (PPM)
WITHIN RT. 128 REGION WITH AND WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
Vehicular Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
Oxidant Level
(1-hour Average)
Present
1972
131,555
170,002
301,557
.20
1977
without
strategy
72,101
51,000
123,101
.10
1977
with
strategy
47,800
51 ,000
98,830
.074
1978 1979
without
strategy
51 ,000
52,500
113,500
.089
52,500
54,000
106,500
.081
Area = 243 sq. mi.
3-12
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TABLE BOS.5
EMISSION REDUCTIONS WITH RECOMMENDED CONTROL STRATEGIES
Program
Element
Source Control
Transportation
Oriented
Program
Strategy
Inspection and
Maintenance
Retrofit
CBD Parking
Management,
Peripheral
Parking Facili-
ties, Mass Transit
Improvements,
Road Pricing
Traffic Flow
Improvements
TOTAL
Percent Emission Reduction
Inner City
HC CO
10.4 8.7
33.2 43.5
11.1 11.1
1.5 1.5
56.2 64.8
Region
HC CO
10.4 8.7
33.2 43.5
3.9 3.9
.3 .3
47.8 56.4
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3.3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-DAYTON, OHIO
3.3.1 Air Quality
The second highest measurement of oxidant concentration during 1971
was 343 micrograms per cubic meter, one hour reading. It was measured
at the sole monitor operating at that time (just off Dixie Drive, approxi-
mately five miles north of town). The national primary standard of 160
micrograms per cubic meter, one hour reading, must be achieved by July 1977.
Carbon monoxide measurements indicate that no problem should exist with
carbon monoxide ambient air levels by July 1977.
Serious doubt exists about the validity of the data used to deter-
mine the air quality for the Dayton area. Reasons for this doubt are based
on the erratic nature of peak value (732 micrograms per cubic meter)
obtained on only one day in well over a year of monitoring, and upon the
fact that neither this value nor any value close to it has been repeated
since August 1971. During the equivalent period of 1972, no value of the
same order of magnitude was obtained. Perhaps the most important factor
in questioning the validity of the 1971 summer data is the location of the
monitor in relation to abnormal traffic flow patterns during that time.
At the time when the high readings were obtained,a temporary interchange
was located at the interstate highway approximately one mile east of the
monitor. Traffic was diverted to a road upwind of the monitor across to
Dixie highway, located to the west of the monitor approximately 200 to 300
yards. It might be noted that during this time when the high oxidant
readings were obtained, the carbon monoxide monitor in the CBD did not
have a correspondingly high peak. This would indicate that the emissions
in the CBD were not in proportion to the unusually high value measured at
the monitor located 4 to 5 miles north of town. In addition, the monitor
is located in a parking lot used by the school district for parking school
buses. Although these buses should not normally create a problem with
photochemical oxidants due to the lag time in oxidant formation after
emission of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen, the buses could have been
involved in the especially high reading that was recorded on August 30 due
to the excessive HQ^ interference which may not have been accounted for by
usual statistical adjustment procedures.
3-14
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It should be noted that the temporary interchange has since been
closed and the interstate highway opened to traffic. During the summer of
1972 no value approached the single value measured on August 30, 1971, of
372 micrograms per cubic meter, and in fact no value approached that level
again after August 30, 1971. The second highest reading was measured the
hour after the highest reading on August 30, and that value was 343 micro-
grams per cubic meter. The next highest value measured was on August 30,
1971 (314 micrograms per cubic meter). The highest value measured during
the summer months of 1972 and in fact the highest value measured since
September of 1971 was 225 micrograms per cubic meter, on August 31, 1972.
This was the only value to exceed 200 micrograms per cubic meter since
September 1971. This indicates that a significant reduction in oxidant
levels in the vicinity of the monitor has occurred. It is not felt that
meteorological changes alone should cause an overall shift in values of
this magnitude and consistency.
The most obvious reason for this reduction would be the improved
traffic flow patterns around the monitor. It seems that the high values
measured in August 1971 were due to the unusual traffice conditions in this
area, the school bus situation, or some other unexplained localized phe-
nomena.
3.3.2 Emission Reduction Required
A reduction of 58 percent in hydrocarbon emissions is estimated to
be needed to achieve the oxidant National Ambient Air Quality Standard,
assuming the air quality data to be accurate and representative.
Table Day.l shows the stationary, mobile, and total hydrocarbon
emissions for 1971, 1977 with only federal emission controls applied, and
1977 as required to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (58
percent reduction in total emissions). Comparison of the two 1977 columns
indicates that an additional 27.2 percent reduction in mobile emissions
will be required to achieve the necessary 16.2 percent required reduction
in total emissions.
3-15
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TABLE DAY.l
24-HOUR HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FOR
MONTGOMERY AND GREENE COUNTIES (kg/day)
Stationary
Mobile*
Total
1971
61 ,224
86,693
147,917
1977 (Federal)
29,902
44,251
74,153
1978 (Federal)
31,009
38,655
69,664
1977 (Standard)
29,902
32,223
62,125
*Based on average speed of 28.0 mph for 1971 and 29.1 mph for 1977, 78.
Based upon the preceding information, it is not possible to unqual-
ifiedly recommend a control strategy for the Dayton area. It, however,
would be in the best interest of the residents of the Dayton area for
efforts to be made to reduce vehicular contributed pollution in order to
further improve air quality. Special effort should be made to increase
use of the mass transit system. Use of the private automobile in the CBD
should be discouraged; and effort to insure proper operation of these
vehicles should be made, such as a periodic inspection and/or maintenance
program. In addition, an adequate air quality monitoring system should
be instituted and maintained in order to measure and provide updated pro-
jections of required emission reductions. As an interim measure to insure
compliance, an episode control strategy could be implemented. It should
be noted that if the air quality data is correct, projections indicate
that the National Ambient Air Quality Standards would only be violated twice
annually at the worst (once is permissible).
3.3.3 Proposed Control Strategy
In consideration of the emission reduction potential and obstacles
to implementation of the control measures considered, the following control
strategy is proposed.
3-lfi
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• Phase 1 - Problem Evaluation and Planning
In view of the limited air quality and emissions data, a compre-
hensive program for the expansion and review of air quality
monitoring network and stationary source emissions data should
be completed no later than October 1974. During this period the
Episode plan described below should be fully developed and ready
for implementation by Summer 1975 if necessary. Also during
this period the requirements and regional extent of an Inspection/
Maintenance Program most effective for the Dayton region must
be defined and any preliminary testing performed.
t Phase 2 - Control Measure Implementation
By June 1975 the following control measures should be fully
implemented in order to achieve maximum emission reduction
potential by July 1977.
1. Inspection/Maintenance - a loaded emission test of the Key
Mode type with manditory annual inspection.
2. Transit and Traffic Improvements as currently planned.
3. An Episode Control Plan as described below.
• Episode Controls
An episode control plan is recommended for control of photo-
chemical oxidant pollution in the Dayton region. While this
type of strategy is not generally useful in providing for the
attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards, certain
specific features of the Dayton problem appear to indicate the
usefulness of this strategy.
1. Based on monitoring data extending from August 1971 through
September 1972, the air quality standards appear to be ex-
ceeded on less than 10 days per year.
2. The highest photochemical oxidant measurements occur during
period of general atmospheric stagnation. These stagnation
3-17
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periods are currently being forecasted and implementation
of episode controls would not have to wait until air quality
standards were actually exceeded.
3. The region is small enough, in terms of physical site and
population, to permit significant diversion to non-polluting
transit on a short-term basis.
It is therefore recommended that an episode control plan be adopted
for the Dayton region which incorporates the following features. Detailed
elaboration of this plan should be conducted by State and local officials
and reported to EPA as a part of the second semi-annual report. The plan
should:
1. Provide for plan activation based on a forecast of adverse
meteorological conditions and deteriorating air quality (i.e.
120 pg/m3 oxidant).
2. Closing of all nonessential operations, especially those
which generate large numbers of auto trips such as shopping
centers, theaters, etc.
3. Mobilization of available bus fleets (school buses, national
guard vehicles) to provide essential transportation.
4. Strictly enforced limitation of private auto use on major
arteries in the two county area surrounding Dayton.
The episode control strategy should provide the degree of reduction in
hydrocarbon emissions required to prevent formation of levels of photo-
chemical oxidants in quantities exceeding air quality standards. It is
estimated that an episode along the lines described above will reduce
mobile source hydrocarbon emissions by 30 to 40 percent. This is equiv-
alent to a 20 percent overall reduction in hydrocarbon emissions and should
allow attainment of air quality standards by 1977.
3-18
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3.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-DENVER, COLORADO
3.4.1 Air Quality and Emission Reduction
The physical and climatic characteristics of the Denver metropolitan
area impose a finite limitation on the allowable emission density for the
area if ambient air quality standards are to be met. Mobile source emissions
are responsible for 97 percent of the total carbon monoxide emissions and
70 percent of the hydrocarbon emissions in the metropolitan Denver area.
Superimposed on this physical environment is a high vehicle population
growth rate (5.2 percent/year) and the highest per capita automobile
ownership in the nation. The combined impact of these physical and social
characteristics is to partially offset the expected benefits from the
incursion of controlled automobiles into the vehicle population.
The 1971 CAMP station air quality data show a 64 percent reduction in
carbon monoxide emissions required to meet the Federal eight-hour standard.
The hydrocarbon emissions must be reduced by 32 percent in order to bring
the peak-hour oxidant values within Federal requirements.
The emission estimates and the transportation data indicate the
source of the pollutant is strongest in the center of the city. However,
the outer parts of the metropolitan area contribute substantially; therefore,
any program designed to reduce extreme pollution levels should not be limited
to the reduction of maximum emissions area, but should include some plan
for area-wide reductions. It should also be noted that although the CAMP
station data support the conclusions that areas of high vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) and therefore high emissions are areas of high pollutant
concentration, the meteorological and physical factors documented by Riehl
and Herkhof^ ' strongly suggest that other high concentration areas may
well exist which are not currently monitored.
^Herbert Riehl and Dirk Herkhof, "Weather Factors in Denver Air
Pollution," August 1970.
3-19
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3.4.2 Control Strategy
The analyses of the control measures considered most feasible for
implementation by 1977 show that no one control measure will be sufficient
to meet the required reduction for carbon monoxide. The reductions
achievable by several combinations of control measures are shown in Tables
Den.l and Den.2. The strategies considered are as follows:
0 Strategy 1 - Inspection/Maintenance, Lead Idle Air Fuel
Ratio/Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (I&M, LIA/VSAD)
This strategy is totally exhaust control oriented. It
consists of either key mode or idle inspection and
maintenance with twice yearly inspection, LIA7VSAD retrofit
for pre-1968 light-duty vehicles.
• Strategy 2 - Inspection/Maintenance, Lead Idle Air Fuel
Ratio/Ignition Timing Modification (I&M, LIA/ITM)
Inspection/Maintenance as above with LIA/ITM retrofit for
pre-1968 vehicles. The primary difference between
Strategy 1 and Strategy 2 is the greater impact on CO
of the Ignition Timing Modifications.
• Strategy 3 - VMT Reductions
This strategy does not include an exhaust controls with
the exception of Federal new car controls. The maximum
reduction is achieved in the core area. The suggested
measures are (1) regional bus network improvements,
(2) peripheral parking, (3) car pooling and those restraints
necessary to ensure the effectiveness of these measures,
namely, curb parking removal.
• Strategy 4 - Combined Strategy 1 and Strategy 3
VMT reductions are combined with the exhaust control
measures in Strategy 1 above.
• Strategy 5 - Combined Strategy 2 and Strategy 3
The above strategies are considered conservative in their estimates
of emission reduction possible; however, no strategy will precisely achieve
the 64 percent reduction required even in the core area where VMT reduction
impact is greatest. No consideration has been given to any high altitude
retrofit package due to lack of data. The reduction achievable by imple-
mentation of this exhaust control measure will definitely be sufficient
3-20
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Table Den.l .
OJ
I
no
PERCENT REDUCTIONS ACHIEVABLE*
FOR CO (TOTAL EMISSIONS)
TOTAL
(64% Reduction Required)
1971
Federal New Car
Strategy 1
Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5
DENVER
Emissions
(tons/day)
538.8
357.6
279.9
263.5
348.1
272.9
257.0
Reduction
(percent)
_ _
33.6
48.1
51 .1
35.4
49.4
52.3
CENTRAL AREA
Emissions
(tons/day)
162.0
101.8
78.3
73.5
95.9
74.0
69.4
Reduction
(percent)
_ _
37.2
51.7
54.6
40.8
54.3
57.2
CORE
Emissions
(tons/day)
79.1
42.9
36.7
34.4
39.8
34.1
32.0
Reduction
(percent)
_ _
45.8
53.6
56.5
49.7
56.9
59.5
*Reductions from 1971 all include 1975 standards,
-------
Table Den.2.
PERCENT REDUCTIONS ACHIEVABLE*
FOR HC (TOTAL EMISSIONS)
TOTAL
(32% Reduction Required)
1971
Federal New Car
Strategy 1
Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5
DENVER
Emissions
(tons/day)
105.8
77.6
72.4
72.5
76.6
71.6
71.7
Reduction
(percent)
__
26.7
31.6
31 .5
27.6
32.3
32.2
CENTRAL AREA
Emissions
(tons/day)
20.4
10.6
9.0
9.1
10.0
8.6
8.6
Reduction
(percent)
__
48.0
55.9
55.4
51.0
57.8
57.8
CORE
Emissions
(tons/day)
8.7
4.4
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.5
3.5
Reduction
(percent)
__
49.4
57.5
56.3
52.9
59.8
59.8
u>
I
ro
ro
*Reductions from 1971 all include 1975 standards.
-------
in combination with Strategy 4 or Strategy 5 above to meet the required
reduction for the core and central areas.
Based on the figures in Table Den.l, it is recommended that Strategy
5 (with the additional high altitude retrofit package) be adopted as the
transportation control plan for Denver.
3.4.3 Conclusions and Recommendations
From the qualitative and quantitative analyses of existing data and
recommendations for the control of transportation related carbon monoxide
and hydrocarbon emissions, the following conclusions can be stated:
• The Federal standard for eight-hour carbon monoxide will
require a 64 percent reduction in carbon monoxide emissions
by 1977. The peak-hour oxidant data indicate a 32 percent
reduction is required in the 6 - 9 a.m. hydrocarbon emissions
• Federal new car standards will not be sufficient to meet
the required reduction by 1977.
• No one control measure will be sufficient to meet the
required carbon monoxide reduction.
0 A region-wide plan is required to
(1) Prevent the deterioration of air quality in
areas not currently exceeding the standards
(2) To reduce the region-wide contribution to the
accumulation of pollutants in maximum concen-
tration areas.
• The region-wide plan would consist of
(1) Those control measures which will effectively
reduce the region-wide contribution to the
formation of critical concentrations of which
some combination of the following is considered
most feasible and effective:
'Inspecti on/Mai ntenance
•High Altitude Retrofit
•Pre-1968 Retrofit
(2) Those control measures which will reduce the
emissions in critical concentration areas
resulting from high density vehicle miles
of travel at low average vehicle speeds.
3-23
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(3) Those long-term measures which in addition to those
mentioned above will ensure that existing air quality
in the region is not degraded. These measures should
include:
'Land use planning with attention to transportation
related environmental factors
"Tax reforms to reverse the existing encouragement
for additional cars and/or VMT tax.
•Planned development of a regional public transporta-
tion system in conjunction with land use planning.
On the basis of these conclusions, the following recommendations are
made:
1. Establish immediately a testing facility to adequately
measure the uncontrolled and controlled emissions at
high altitudes. This facility should also test the
proposed retrofit devices especially the high altitude
modifications. Use this facility to test the findings
of the Northrop study'^) .
2. Expand the regional monitoring network for carbon
monoxide and oxidants.
3. On the basis of test results and the findings of the
Northrop study, select an Inspection and Maintenance
and retrofit program most effective at high altitudes
and phase implementation of this program to achieve
total impact by June 1976 at the latest.
4. On the basis of test results and findings of the
Northrop study, determine the retrofit packages most
effective for the Denver area (with special attention
to high altitude retrofits) and phase implementation
of this program to achieve full impact by June 1976
at the latest.
Northrop Corporation, "Vehicle Emission Inspection and Control
Program, Volume I - Summary," unpublished report, 15 November
1972.
3-24
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5. Implementation of those VMT reduction measures directed at
the central area (until extended monitoring indicates
extension to other areas) and consisting primarily of:
* Regional bus network improvements
• Peripheral parking
• Car pooling
and those restraints necessary to ensure the effectiveness
of these measures, namely
* Curb parking removal
Although further restraints such as taxation may be required
to support a large modal shift, they require careful considera-
tion of socio-economic impact and demand elasticity modeling
before implementation.
6. Utilize the modal split, trip distribution, and economic
analyses being carried out by the Council of Governments
and the Regional Transportation District and long-range
planning program to postulate alternative restraints and
transportation impacts on the total transportation network.
This effort will focus on long-term measures to assure the
maintenance of ambient standards.
7. Update the emissions and air quality data base on the basis
of monitoring and test results at least semi-annually during
the period January 1973 to July 1976.
8. Redefine, if necessary, the air quality problem on the
basis of the updated inventory and any modeling performed.
9. Re-evaluate and redefine the elements of the control
strategy, where necessary, at least semi-annually
between January 1973 and July 1976.
3-25
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3.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TEXAS
3.5.1 Air Quality and Emission Reductions
There is no identified carbon monoxide problem in the Greater
Houston Area. An ozone measurement study was performed on the upper Texas
Gulf coast between April and June of 1972. This study identified a
regional photochemical oxidant problem of major magnitude. As a result
of this study, the baseline maximum one-hour oxidant concentration was
revised upward to 0.315 ppm (630
After careful evaluation, a total hydrocarbon emission reduction goal
of 75 percent was established to meet photochemical oxidant standards in the
Greater Houston Area. Calculations were performed to determine the total
hydrocarbon emissions from all sources including motor vehicles, and to
estimate the reduction possible with present stationary source regulations
and Federal motor vehicle emission controls. This initial evaluation de-
termined that the ambient air quality standards could not be met by 1977,
even with zero mobile emissions, unless hydrocarbon emissions from
stationary sources are also reduced significantly.
3.5.2 Proposed Control Strategy
The proposed strategy is phased so as to take advantage of legisla-
tive or judicial remission, technology development and changes in require-
ments resulting from a better understanding of the air pollution problem
in the Greater Houston Area. In its fully implemented form, it will allow
air quality standards to be met by the 1977 due date. Phase I measures
have substantial justification, either in terms of significant air quality
improvement or other urban needs. Present justification for Phase II
measures is tentative at best. The final decision to implement them must
be based on a better demonstration of the nend for further hydrocarbon
emission reductions than is now available. Figure HOU-1 summarizes the
emission reductions possible from implementation of Phase I and Phase II
of this proposed control strategy.
3-26
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400 r-
CO
I
CO
00
03 OC
o: <
-
o: oo
o z:
>- o
O CO
H- Z3
O
300 -
200 -
TOO -
33. 5X*
~
'iff!
Ill
.•'. .'.x: ..
'.•'-.:.•
1 311
61 .2%*
-::;;-st|ffi>i|i
*REDUCTION FROM PRESENT
EMISSION LEVEL
62.3**
I
'<•!•'•',' '.
Pf
'-'.•I •'•'•'. •'.'•'.'•'•
•'•!**"*•• V*"'*
lit!
63.8%*
•X.V''- '•',•'•
"'•X.^'-'-'vl'X '.'-''•"'•'•':
Xy/^:y;Xy;;;;;;X;t
iixliil
;• ->!•>"•'
l^xllxii
•X-X-Xv-
70. U*
1
''•; •'•'•'-> '.'•>' •-•••/.•'.' •"
75%*
illliil
PRESENT MEASURE MEASURE MEASURES MEASURE MEASURE
REGS. 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
Figure HOU.1 Estimated Total Hydrocarbon Emissions in 1977 Resulting from the
Proposed Control Measures
-------
Phase I Measures
1. Continue evaluation of control measures - Expand the air moni-
toring program in the Greater Houston Area to include more
stations and gas chromotography at selected stations. Initiate
a regular review of the air quality and emission inventory data
to determine if adjustment of the emission control strategy is
required to meet ambient air standards.
2. Stationary source measures - Tighten and expand the Regulation
V stationary source controls as recommended by the Texas Air
Pollution Control Service's study. Broaden the coverage of
Regulation V to include all counties in the region.
3. Mandatory inspection/maintenance - Implement an annual inspec-
tion/maintenance program for in-use vehicles. An idle emission
test performed in conjunction with the annual safety inspection
is the method recommended.
4. Mass transit - A substantial improvement in mass transit is re-
quired in the Greater Houston Area. Based on this need and
recognizing the extensive studies that have been performed, it
is recommended that Phase I of the Houston Transit Action Pro-
gram be implemented as soon as possible.
5. Parking measures - It is recommended that parking measures be
instituted in all high density areas. These include strict
enforcement of existing parking regulations, elimination of
preferential rates for all day parking, and establishment of
procedures to control parking availability as adequate mass
transit is provided.
6. Car pool incentives - Initiate a formal information program
with the aim of increasing the amount of voluntary car pooling.
This program should include a computer matching element.
It is estimated that measures 4, 5 and 6 will bring about a 3 to 5
percent reduction in VMT.
7. Fugitive and evaporative emission controls - (a) Promulgate
regulations to control evaporative hydrocarbon emissions from
all gasoline marketing levels, (b) Promulgate regulations to
control all reactive hydrocarbon emissions from solvent users.
(c) Promulgate regulations to attack fugitive losses from all
process industries.
Phase II Measures
If at the end of the evaluation period in 1974 it is determined
that additional hydrocarbon emission reductions are required, those reduc-
tions can be obtained through implementation of the following measure:
3-28
-------
8. Motor vehicle emission reduction - (a) Retrofit a catalytic con-
verter on all 1968-1974 automobiles and reduce the vehicle miles
traveled during the summer and fall months by 30 percent or (b) no
major vehicle retrofit program and reduce vehicle miles traveled
by 50 percent during the summer and fall months. The method rec-
ommended to effect the vehicle mile reduction is gasoline rationing,
As is obvious, implementation of the Phase II measure would be very
difficult. Rigorous objections at all levels of government, industry and
the public can be expected. For that reason, it is not recommended unless
and until the need for additional (over Phase I) hydrocarbon emission re-
ductions are substantiated by additional ambient air quality monitoring.
3.5.3 Conclusions and Recommendations
Presented below are the major conclusions and recommendations that
have emerged as a result of this study.
Conclusions
• Photochemical oxidants and total hydrocarbons are well above
the national standards a significant portion of the time in the
Houston area.
• Stationary source as well as mobile source reductions are required
to allow the ambient standards to be met.
• There is no adequate definition of the actual effect that emis-
sion levels have on ambient air quality in the Greater Houston
Area. The present air quality measurements and the accuracy of
the emission inventory are not sufficient to develop this rela-
tionship.
• Significant reductions in hydrocarbon emissions can be obtained
by tightening Regulation V.
• Annual inspection/maintenance is necessary to obtain full benefit
from Federal motor vehicle emission controls.
• Traffic flow improvements offer only marginal positive contribu-
tions to air quality.
• A substantial improvement in mass transit is required in the
Greater Houston Area. The Houston Transit Action Program is a
major step in the right direction; however, it is questionable
whether the key elements can be completed by the 1977 air quality
deadline.
• Substantial mobile source emission reductions over those that
can be achieved through individual vehicle emission controls can
only be obtained by direct reductions in vehicle miles traveled.
3-29
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0 The use of vehicles cannot be significantly restrained without
providing some alternate means of transportation.
• Pricing schemes (including taxes) to discourage auto travel are
largely ineffective and heavily regressive.
• Gas rationing appears to be the most directly effective and ad-
ministratively viable means of imposing VMT reductions.
Recommendations
It is recommended that the Phase I control measures be implemented.
The measures have substantial justification, either in terms of signifi-
cant air quality improvement or other urban needs. The final decision
regarding implementation of the Phase II measure should be deferred until
the need for additional (over Phase I) hydrocarbon emission reductions are
substantiated by further ambient air quality monitoring and a review of
the air quality standards in light of the cost to achieve them.
3-30
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3.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
3.6.1 Air Quality in the South Coast Air Basin
Air quality measurements taken in the South Coast Air Basin show
the air pollution to be a severe problem. The severity of the air pollution
can be shown by at least three indices: (1) the extensive geographical
area which experiences the problem, (2) the number of days per year that
various established standards are violated, and (3) the number of pollu-
tants which contribute to the problem.
Unlike areas which experience localized pollution from a limited
number of point sources, the air pollution characteristic of Los Angeles
is truly regional. The areal nature of the problem is the result of
several factors. First, the major source of contaminants in the Basin is
the automobile, which means the primary pollutants* are emitted from
millions of spread out mobile sources (Figure LA.l). The low density of
the region contributes to this by having thousands of miles of streets
and freeways cutting around and through the 8000 or so square miles of
the Basin. Finally, since the principal air pollution problem is photo-
chemical oxidants, the primary pollutants are given the chance to diffuse
before becoming involved in the photochemical reactions which ultimately
generate ozone (03).
The number of days on which different air quality standards is
violated varies as a function of pollutant and time of year. High photo-
chemical oxidant levels occur predominantly during the summer months whereas
the CO levels are generally highest during the winter months. The season-
al variation of selected pollutants is seen by examining data compiled for
the west San Fernando Valley (Figure LA.2). This valley experiences neither
the best nor worst air in the Basin, and consequently, can be viewed as
"typical".
*
Primary pollutants are those pollutants which are emitted directly into
the atmosphere, e.g., CO, HC, NO; secondary pollutants are those which
have resulted from a transformation process involving primary pollutants,
e.g. N02, 03.
3-31
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ORGANIC GASES
3200 TPD
Other
Petroleum
Industry
Motor Vehicles
NITROGEN OXIDES
1570 TPD
Other
CO
rv>
Motor
Vehicles
Organic Solvent
Users
CARBON MONOXIDE
11300 TPD
Other
Combustion
of Fuels
Motor
Vehicles
Figure LA.l Percentage of Emissions From Major Sources
in the South Coast Air Basin - 1970
Source: State of California, The Resources Agency, Air Resources Board,
California Emission Inventory - 1970. July 1972, p. 45.
-------
oso
PHOTOCMEf/ICAL OXIOAMS
FEDER/L ST'O - 0.08 P?M - MAXIMUM Cf.E HOUR CONCENTRATION
•65
'CO
'67
'60
69
•/o
60
- «0
sl
X ~*
30
*
0" 20
Sg
21
10
CARBON MONOXIDE
A A
i
A
FEDERAL ST'D . 35 PPM • HAXir.VJM OHE-Hr-'JR CO'TCNTHATION
•65
•66 '67
•68
•69
'70
£z
o o
2.0
l.B
1C
14
17
1.0
08
06
04
0.2
OXIDES OF NITHOGEN
CALIF ST O - 0.25 PPM NO, - MAXIMUM ONE HOUR CONCENTRATION
*
•65 -66 -67 -68 69
NOTE: THE FEDERAL STANDARD IS 0 05 PPM I
ANNUAL ARITHMETIC MEAN
•70
Figure LA.2.Major A1r Pollutants - Monthly Maximum Hourly Averages
West San Fernando Valley (Monitored in Reseda) 1965- 1970.
Source: Branch, M. C., and E. Y. Leong (eds.), Research Investioation-
Air Pollution and City Planning, Environmental Science and
Engineering, University of California. Los Angeles, 1972, p. 6.
3-33
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The oxidant control strategy discussed in this report involves the
control of high reactive organic gases (hydrocarbons) as defined by the
Los Angeles APCD Rule 66. This control approach was used in the State
Air Implementation Plan, and has been tentatively accepted by EPA. As
a result of this approach, some hydrocarbons considered to be reactive
by EPA, are not considered in this control strategy.
The high yearly ambient oxidant reading is considered to be direct-
ly proportional to the amount of high reactive hydrocarbon emissions for
that year. In other words, straight line proportional rollback of high
reactive hydrocarbon emissions is used to predict the emissions reduction
needed to meet the oxidant standard.
The base year of 1970 is used to make this prediction. On August
6, 1970, the yearly one-hour high oxidant reading of .62 ppm was recorded
at Riverside. The .67 ppm year high oxidant reading used by the California
Air Resources Board (ARB) in the air implementation plan has since been
rejected by the ARB. The State Plan showed a total of 195 tons/day of
stationary source high reactive hydrocarbon emission, and 33 tons/day from
aircraft in 1970. The 1970 emissions from other mobile sources (i.e., on-
highway light and heavy duty gasoline vehicles and motorcycles) are 1023
tons/day. As indicated this number does not include the emissions from
off-highway gasoline usage. However, this usage is considered negligible
on the basis of data obtained from the ARB staff, which showed that current
off-highway gasoline usage accounts for only slightly more than 2 percent
of gasoline sales.
3.6.2 Control Strategy
The relationship between air pollutant emissions and ambient air
quality is still not well understood, despite major efforts to develop
both sophisticated analytical and statistical models. The inaccuracies
in the ability to predict air quality result from many factors, some of
which are:
3-34
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• Inadequate and questionable emission inventories
• Questionable air quality data
• The representativeness of test cycles to actual driving pat-
terns; e.g., 7-mode vs. CVS
t The uncertainties of the real effectiveness of various control
strategies.
The control strategy recommendations presented are based on propor-
tional rollback techniques that relate estimated emissions to air quality
in a linear fashion. This has been done primarily because of the time
constraints of the study. The validity of this technique is highly ques-
tionable and consequently does not serve as an adequate basis on which
to implement severe control measures.
Full implementation of the control measures outlined should allow
attainment of the air quality standards by the 1977 target date. Imple-
mentation of Phase I measures can be justified on the basis of air quality
improvements at reasonable costs. The impact of implementing the Phase II
control measures is staggering. This study had neither the time nor the
data base to fully evaluate the social, political, and economic ramifica-
tions of such a measure. Hence, it cannot be recommended at this time
although it would, in all probability, result in the desired goal.
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed
elsewhere; no "magic solution" was found and only incremental improvements
can be expected from each strategy. The primary reason for this is a host
of control options were evaluated, the large majority of which proved to
be relatively ineffective. The California Air Resources Board is actively
engaged in field testing a variety of control strategies and has extensive
expqrience in the field of air pollution control; it would be a mistake
to usurp their efforts and knowledge with massive unproven control measures.
3-35
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The severity of the air pollution left few alternatives for measures
which would be adequate to accomplish the program requirements.
Phase I Measures:
1. Evaporative Controls - Accelerate the evaluation program of
evaporative control devices for 1966-1969 vehicles. At the
earliest date, if the devices are shown to be effective and
available, a mandatory installation program should be imple-
mented.
2. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - Accelerate the evaluation
program of oxidizing catalytic converters. If these con-
verters are effective and become available, incentives should
be made to encourage their use on 1966-1974 vehicles.
3. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - Implement a program of
inspection and maintenance for in-use vehicles. The program
recommended is the second stage expansion of the recommended
program of the Governor's Task Force on Periodic Vehicle In-
spection and Maintenance. This measure will provide significant
reductions in motor vehicle emissions and is necessary to
derive the full benefit from both new and used car emission
controls. This should result in a reduction of ten to twelve
percent of the reaction hydrocarbons left uncontrolled in 1977
(approximately 40 tons/day).
4. Mandatory Conversion of Fleet Vehicles to Burn Gaseous Fuels -
Implement a program requiring the conversion of all fleet
vehicles of model years 1970-1974 to use a gaseous fuel. This
measure will significantly improve the emissions from vehicles
which presently account for a disproportionate share of the miles
traveled in the South Coast Air Basin. The reduction from this
program is estimated to be approximately 12 tons/day of reactive
hydrocarbons.
5. Evaporative Loss Controls - Implement a program to substantially
reduce hydrocarbon losses from fueling operations, specifically
from the loading of underground storage tanks at the gasoline
3-36
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station and from the service pump to the automobile fuel tank.
The control of these marketing losses is estimated to be
approximately 65 tons/day of reactive hydrocarbons.
6. Additional Stationary Source Controls - Stationary source con-
trols were not evaluated as part of this study; however, as
mobile source controls become more effective, the proportionate
contribution of stationary sources to the problem will increase.
The emission reductions claimed from this strategy were calcu-
lated by the EPA and have tentatively been accepted. They are
as follows: 6 tons/day from dry cleaning vapor control, 25
tons/day from degreaser substitution, and 45 tons/day from a
50 percent strengthening of the Los Angeles County Air Pollution
Control District's Rule 66. All in all, approximately 76 tons/
day of reactive hydrocarbons can be controlled from additional
stationary source controls.
7. Mass Transit - The level of mass transit available presently is
totally inadequate to handle any substantial increases in rider-
ship. Improving mass transit both in terms of frequency and
efficiency of service and the breadth of coverage in areas
served, is a necessary first step to attract additional riders.
It is also needed for making any measures which discourage
private auto use more effective. Finally, should Phase II be
implemented, it is imperative as an alternative mode of travel.
A much closer examination should be given to establishing express
bus and carpool lanes on certain freeways. Park-and-ride
facilities, as well as bicycling, should be encouraged in more
areas of the Basin.
Implementation of a series of mass transit improvements plus a
variety of incentives to discourage the private use of the auto-
mobile should result in a 5-8 percent reduction of VMT in 1977.
The reduction in reactive hydrocarbons is estimated to be no
more than 5 percent of the remaining controllable emissions or
approximately 17 tons/day after the implementation of the Phase I
measures.
3-37
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Phase II Measure:
8. a) VMT Reduction - Implement a massive program to significantly
reduce the vehicle miles traveled within the Basin, hence
eliminating the major source of hydrocarbon emissions. This
can probably be done most effectively by rationing the gasoline
supply. Rationing can be accomplished either by limiting the
supply to the actual consumers from the gasoline station or
from the refinery to the service station; or_
b) Evaporative Retrofit Device and/or Oxidizing Catalytic Con-
verters with VMT Reduction - If upon completion of the Air
Resources Board's studies of these controls (Measures 1 and 2),
it can be shown these devices can make a significant impact on
the air quality improvement of the Basin, implement programs
to require their installation. A detailed examination should
be made of costs and benefits to be derived by a mandatory
retrofit program. This will become more important as time
passes and the older cars represent a smaller contribution to
the overall problem.
Assuming a given reduction in VMT is the equivalent percent re-
duction in gasoline consumed, an 87 percent VMT reduction is
required beyond the Phase I measures. This would result in
approximately 292 tons/day of reactive hydrocarbons not being
discharged into the atmosphere (283 tons/day from vehicular
emissions and an additional 9 tons/day from marketing losses).
This same level of control could be accomplished by an 81 percent
VMT reduction after implementing mandatory installation of the
controls described in Measures 1 and 2 (evaporative control
devices and oxidizing catalytic converters). The approximate
reductions in reactive hydrocarbons would then become: 26 tons/
day from evaporative control devices; 84 tons/day from oxidizing
catalytic converters; 8 tons/day from marketing losses; and 174
tons/day from an 81 percent VMT reduction after all other con-
trol measures had been implemented.
3-38
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Figure LA.3. The Impact of Proposed Control Strategy on
Reducing Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions (1977)
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3-39
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3.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-NEW YORK CITY
3.7.1 Air Quality
At one or more points within the boundaries of New York City, the
NAAQS's for CO, Ox, and NOX are exceeded. The principal features of New
York's problems are as follows:
• CO - The highest levels are observed in the downtown and mid-
town sections of Manhattan where maximum eight-hour
concentrations of 45 ppm (parts-per-million) and 32 ppm,
respectively, have been recorded. The maximum eight-hour
standard is 9 ppm.
• Ox - The general New York area appears to have maximum one-hour,
oxidant levels of about 0.18 ppm, compared with a national
standard of 0.08 ppm.
0 NO - Congested areas have maximum one-hour NOX levels of about
)\
0.08 ppm, while other areas are approximately half that
value. The standard is 0.05 ppm annual average.
It should be noted that photochemical oxidants, unlike CO and NOX
are not emitted directly by motor vehicles. Hydrocarbons (HC), which are
emitted by motor vehicles, undergo a complex system of reactions to produce
Ox. It is assumed in this report, as has been assumed in most other work
of this kind, that atmospheric levels of Ox are proportional to hydrocar-
bon emission rates. Therefore, Ox levels can be controlled by reducing
hydrocarbon emissions.
3.7.2 Emission Reductions Needed
For the most-critical areas, the estimated percentages by which
1970 emissions must be lowered to meet the national air quality standards
are as follows:
0 CO - downtown - 80 percent reduction
midtown - 72 percent reduction
3-40
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t Ox - 56 percent reduction of HC
• NOX - 38 percent reduction in congested areas
0 percent reduction elsewhere
3.7.3 Proposed Control Strategy
The control strategy developed for use in New York City is presented
in the following paragraphs. In some cases, such as the hardware-based
control measures, the emission reduction potentials could be quantified.
However, for others such as very localized traffic flow improvements, a
lack of detailed traffic data prevented a quantitative assessment of the
actual emission control potential. The latter class of control is used
only in downtown Manhattan where an additional reduction in CO emissions
(beyond that obtained by vehicle turnover and the hardware measures) is
needed to reach the standard. It should also be noted that in estimating
the emission reductions of CO and HC required to meet the respective CO
and Ox federal standards, the highest measured ambient levels of CO and Ox
were utilized for the rollback calculations. This is more stringent than
the Federal EPA requirements, which allow the use of the second highest
measured values.
The expected vehicle emission reduction percentages for the "hard-
ware" control measures, i.e., retrofit and inspection programs, are
tabulated in Table NY-1. The specific control packages are described below:
• Retrofit Package - this will consist of engine modifications (re-
tarded spark, etc.) and a catalytic converter. NOV controls might
A
be incorporated but these were not included in emission calcula-
tions. A twice yearly inspection will be used to insure compliance.
t Inspection/Maintenance - a loaded emission test will be made on
taxis three times per year and on private automobiles once annually.
It appears that only the area of downtown Manhattan around the Canal
Street Post Office might require VMT reductions. However, the biggest emis-
sion source in this area (trucks, even after being retrofitted) is not
3-41
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TABLE NY.l
ASSUMED VtHICLE EMISSION REDUCTIONS FOR HARDWARE CONTROL MEASURES
Control Measure
A - Retrofit of Heavy-
Duty, Gasoline-Powered
Vehicles
CO
50
Emission Reduction
HC
50
NOV
IB - Inspection/Maintenance
of Taxis
C - Inspection/Maintenance
of Private Cars
10
10
12
12
3-42
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considered suitable for VMT reduction, because of the potential economic
harm which might result. The recommended additional control measure for
this area is as follows:
• Pragmatic Flow Improvement/VMT Reduction Approach - the high CO
levels recorded at the Canal Street sampling station are due in
large part to the terrible congestion problems on this artery.
For this reason, the downtown CBD is quite affected by general
traffic flow improvements such as the on-going TOPICS program
and the new westside highway construction. These programs should
be augmented by strict enforcement of parking regulations and the
anti-cruising ordinance for taxis.
The techniques described in the initial sections of this report were
utilized to estimate emissions obtained by application of four hardware
control measures by 1977:
• Vehicle Turnover
t Heavy-Duty Vehicle Retrofit and Inspection
t Taxi Inspection/Maintenance
• Private Automobile Inspection
The results are tabulated together with 1970 baseline emissions in
Tables NY-2 and NY-3. The conclusions drawn from these results are in the
following paragraphs.
t CO Emission Controls
Apparently, the hardware control measures alone could enable all
areas of New York City, except for part of the downtown Manhattan
CBD, to meet the ambient air quality standard for carbon monoxide
in 1977. Because of the conservative rollback estimates used for
this analysis, there is a good chance that even this area will
meet the standards with no additional controls. Furthermore,
TOPICS improvements will improve traffic flow and help reduce
3-43
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TABLE NY.2. AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR THE "WORST" SQUARE MILES
IN DIFFERENT AREAS OF NEW YORK CITY (Ton/Year)
Case
1970-U
1975-U
1977-U
1984-U
1977-A
1977-B
1977-C
1977-A11
Allowable
Downtown (134)
CO
20,730
13,998
10,804
6,123
6,931
10,755
10,638
6,716
4,146
HC
4,870
3,765
3,029
2,483
2,149
3,020
3,003
2,114
NA
NOX
9,019
5,267
4,962
4,729
4,962
4,962
4,962
4,962
5,592
Midtown (193)
CO
9,751
4,452
3,236
1,910
2,317
3,188
3,174
2,207
2,730
HC
2,053
1,228
981
828
773
972
972
755
NA
NOX
4,381
2,297
2,142
2,051
2,142
2,142
2,142
2,142
2,716
Bronx (315)
CO
5,667
3,679
2,614
964
2,355
2,614
2,430
2,171
5,350
HC
1,149
643
436
332
376
436
418
358
NA
NOX
1,381
1,372
1,271
1,184
1,271
1 ,271
1 ,271
1,271
MS
Brooklyn (75)
CO
8,462
5,825
4,159
1,569
3,752
4,159
3,871
3,464
7,988
HC
2,813
2,111
1,791
1,630
1,698
1 ,791
1 ,765
1,672
NA
NOX
2,533
2,537
2,392
2,267
2,392
2,392
2,392
2,392
MS
Queens (195)
CO
10,915
7,412
5,218
1,813
4,682
5,218
4,840
4,304
10,304
HC
2,700
1 ,761
1 ,334
1,121
1 ,210
1 ,334
1 ,300
1 ,176
NA
NOX
3,431
3,438
3,234
3,055
3,234
3,234
3,234
3,234
MS
U)
I
Abbreviations:
U = uncontrolled (vehicle turnover alone).
A = control measure A (retrofit and inspection/maintenance of heavy-duty vehicles)
B = control measure B (inspection/maintenance of taxis).
C = control measure C (inspection/maintenance of personal cars).
All = all of the control measures.
NA = not applicable, HC is treated on an area-wide basis (see Table NY.3).
MS = currently meets standards.
-------
TABLE NY.3. MOBILE SOURCE, STATIONARY SOURCE, AND TOTAL EMISSIONS OF AIR
POLLUTANTS IN THE NEW YORK CITY AREA (Ton/Year)
Case
1970-U
1975-U
1977-U
1984-U
1977-A
1977-B
1977-C
1977-A11
Allowable
Carbon Monoxide
Mobile
1 ,175,864
788,981
554,697
198,609
473,461
553,947
517,943
435,957
NA
Stationary
97,445
90,491
90,491
90,491
90,491
90,491
90,491
90,491
NA
Total
1,273,309
879,472
645,188
289,100
563,952
644,438
608,434
526,448
NA
Hydrocarbons
Mob i 1 e
217,875
123,010
76,530
51,932
57,721
76,391
73,065
54 , 1 1 7
54,117
Stationary
98,278
95,336
95,336
95,336
95,336
95,336
95,336
95,336
84,990
Total
316,153
218,346
171 ,866
147,268
153,057
171,727
168,401
149,453
139,107
Nitrogen Oxides
Mobile
93,216
91,254
68,223
48,766
68,223
68,223
68,223
68,223
NA
Stationary
239,399
201 ,187
201,187
201,187
201 ,187
201,187
201,187
201,187
NA
Total
332,615
292,441
269,410
249,952
269,410
269,410
269,410
201 ,187
NA
CO
I
tn
Abbreviations:
U = uncontrolled (vehicle turnover alone).
A = control measure A (retrofit and inspection/maintenance of heavy-duty vehicles)
B = control measure B (inspection/maintenance of taxis).
C = control measure C (inspection/maintenance of personal cars).
All = all of the control measures.
NA = not applicable, CO and NOX are treated as local problems (see Table NY.2).
-------
CO emissions on a short-term basis. The additional help from
strict enforcement of existing parking regulations and reduced
taxi cruising will give more assurance of meeting the standard.
0 HC Emission Controls
The very preliminary Ox air quality data available for New York
indicate that a 56 percent reduction in hydrocarbon emissions
from 1970 levels is needed area-wide to meet the Ox air quality
standard. The emission estimates for 1977, with the hardware
controls in effect, show a projected emission reduction of 53
percent. Uithin the accuracy of the air quality, emission
factor and traffic data sets, there is no significant statistical
difference between these numbers. Nevertheless, because the
projections indicate that stationary sources will be responsible
for almost two-thirds of the 1977 hydrocarbon emissions (assuming
implementation of the hardware control measures) and most of these
sources fail to meet existing NYC standards, the transportation
controls should be augmented by rigid enforcement of the existing
hydrocarbon emission regulations.
• NOX Emission Controls
Like the Ox data, air quality data for NOX are quite limited.
The emission projections for 1977 imply that vehicle turnover
will enable New York to meet the NOV air quality standards with
A
no further reductions needed. Nevertheless, the situation should
be analyzed more thoroughly during implementation of the plan to
insure that the standard will be met.
3-46
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3.8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA
3.8.1 Air Quality
The second highest measurement of carbon monoxide in Philadelphia
during 1971 was 22.5 milligrams per cubic meter eight-hour average measured
at 20th and Race Streets. The national primary standard of 10 milligrams
per cubic meter eight-hour average must be achieved by July 1977.
3.8.2 Emission Reduction Required
A reduction of 56 percent from 1971 emission levels of CO emitted
from mobile sources throughout the City is estimated to be needed to
achieve the required reduction in ambient air concentrations to the level
of the standard. Estimated mobile source emissions of CO in 1971 was
302,000 tons per year total for the City and 25,500 tons per year for the
Central Business District (CBD). By 1977, it is estimated that emissions
must be reduced to 133,000 tons per year. With no transportation control
strategy implemented, it is estimated that a 47 percent reduction will be
achieved total for the City and 61 percent for the CBD, due largely to the
effect of Federal new car emission controls.
3.8.3 Control Strategy
• Control Measures Considered
Control measures which can be used to reduce mobile source emis-
sions and their estimated effects are as follows:
Inspection/Maintenance - One of several inspection alternatives
needed to maintain engine performance and emission controls at
lower emission levels. Estimated reduction: 4-6 percent.
Inspection/Maintenance with Retrofit - One of the several inspec-
tion alternatives with the additional requirement that all pre-
1968 vehicles be retrofitted with emission control devices
comparable to new vehicle emission controls. Estimated additional
reduction is less than 1 percent.
Curbside Parking and Loading Regulations - Enforcement of regu-
lations in order that programmed TOPICS traffic controls are
effective. Estimated reduction: 3 percent for the CBD.
Electrification - Replacement of motor buses with electrified
vehicles results in an estimated reduction of less than 1 percent.
3-47
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Gaseous Fuel Conversion - Emission rates expected from gasoline
fueled 1975 model years and beyond compare favorably with those
rates from gaseous fueled vehicles. Conversion of pre-1975 fleet
vehicles would have short-term, negligible effect.
Increase Mass Transportation Ridership - Control measures which
have the potential for increasing ridership are as follows:
• Center city tunnel connection of suburban rail stations
0 Additional park and ride facilities
• Capacity increases
• Shorter headways
• Security force to eliminate crime in stations and transit
cars
• Rider amenities (appearance, lighting, better seating, station
upgrading)
• Unified fare system
• Work staggering in CBD
• Circumferential transit
9 Commuter rail and subway extensions
Ridership increases from 1 percent to 20 percent are estimated to
reduce emissions from less than 1 percent to 7 percent.
Restraints - Possible restraints are the prohibition of certain
classes of vehicles from congested areas (congestion pass) and
parking space control for inhibiting the movement of vehicles
into areas where limited parking is available. A prohibition
of 100,000 vehicle trips per day are estimated to reduce emis-
sions 2 percent.
VMT Controls - The responsible planning agencies should factor
air quality effects into their transportation planning.
CBD Priority - The priority to those control measures which
preferentially control emissions from the CBD or other yet to
be determined areas of high pollutant emission density.
Car Pools - Low density population in the suburban areas dis-
courages utilization of car pools as an attractive transit mode.
Vehicle Free Zones - Attractive pedestrian malls have the potential
for helping to revitalize center city commerce. However, expe-
rience in other urban areas has shown that displaced vehicular
traffic tends to be relocated rather than reduced.
Proposed Control Strategy
Selection requires the consideration of comparative cost effec-
tiveness of the alternative control measures and the technical
3-48
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and institutional obstacles. Data were available for only a
limited analysis of cost effectiveness. Emission related control
measures, such as inspection/maintenance programs, have technical
limitations which need to be overcome and also have substantial
cost effective deterrents. VMT reduction control measures, such
as mass transit improvements and traffic restraints, present
funding problems for the intensive network required in the case
of mass transit and severe institutional obstacles in the case
of traffic restraints. Traffic restraints should not be imple-
mented without alternative means of travel by mass transit.
Control measures are needed to reduce mobile source emissions by
26,000 tons CO per year (9 percent). The recommended control
strategy for Philadelphia is as follows:
Curbside Parking and Loading Regulations - Estimated to achieve
a reduction of 4000 tons/year.
Inspection/Maintenance (Engine Parameter Without Retrofit) -
Estimated to achieve a reduction of 10,000 tons/year.
Increase Mass Transportation Ridership - Potential reductions
of 6000 tons/year to 10,000 tons/year are estimated for a 10
percent increase in ridership.
Restraints - Prohibition of certain classes of vehicles from
congested areas are estimated to result in a reduction of 6000
tons/year per 100,000 daily vehicle trips.
VMT Controls - Factor effect of increase of vehicular miles of
travel on air quality into transportation planning.
CBD Priority - Give priority to those control measures which
preferentially control emissions from the CBD or other yet to
be determined congested areas.
With substantial increases (more than 10 percent) in mass transit
ridership, it is estimated that the air quality goal can be achieved
by implementation of the first three control measures listed.
However, considering the time constraints and economic obstacles
to implementation of most of the mass transit control measures,
traffic restraints at least for the short term are likely to be
needed.
3-49
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Two concurrent implementation tasks requiring immediate action
are the studies and surveys reqquired to make the necessary
corrections and additions to the data base, and immediate deci-
sion mass transit funding. Following update of the data base,
a better defined mass transit improvement program may require
additional funding (deferred decision funding). Funding delays
may prevent the implementation of all of the required mass transit
control measures within the time constraints.
Control strategy for the reduction of carbon monoxide from
mobile sources has a comparable effect on hydrocarbon emissions
and thus corresponding reductions in photochemical oxidants are
projected. Increased average speeds from the implementation of
TOPICS traffic controls or VMT reductions may result in an
increase in nitrogen dioxide emissions per mile traveled but
this emissions/average speed relationship has not been quantified
to
'D.S. Kircher and D.P. Armstrong, "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle
Emission Estimation," Environmental Protection Agency, October 1972.
3-50
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3.9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-PHOENIX/TUCSON, ARIZONA
3.9.1 Air Quality and Emissions Reductions
The development of a comprehensive transportation control strategy
constitutes a major step towards achieving the desired air quality standards
in the Phoenix-Tucson area. Unfortunately, existing Set II pollutant con-
centration data for Tucson and other areas outside Phoenix are not sufficient
for use as a basis for forecasting air quality in those areas. For this
reason, control measures included in this study could not be evaluated for
use specifically in Tucson. However, it is recommended that the general
results of this study be used as much as possible in current and future
Tucson air quality programs.
The proposed transportation control strategy is specifically designed
to meet the hydrocarbon (HC) and primary oxidant (Ox) standards by 1975,
and the carbon monoxide (CO) standard by 1977. The strategy does not
directly address itself to achieving the nitrogen dioxide (N02) standard.
The Arizona State Implementation Plan was reviewed and the 1969 emissions
inventory and air quality data from this plan were used as the baseline
for making projections. Estimates of future air quality were made based
on current stationary source control policies and forecasted growth. The
results of this study must be viewed within this context. Specifically a
50 percent reduction in CO and a 25 percent reduction in oxidants above
that achieved through ongoing and/or planned programs is needed. Control
of CO (8-hour maximum) becomes the constraining element of the control
plan.
3.9.2 Control Strategy Specification
A wide variety of promising control measures were examined during
the course of this investigation. Selection of the "best" measure for
incorporation into the proposed transportation control strategy was based,
in part, on two general criteria:
(1) Maximum cost effectiveness with proven reliability
(2) Widest possible public acceptance with minimum socio-economic
impact.
3-51
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The proposed transportation control strategy developed for the
Phoenix area consists of two distinct phases. Phase I is designed to
accomplish substantial improvements in air quality for the 1975 through
1977 period. Based on analysis of current data (1969), however, additional
controls may be necessary. Consequently, a Phase II program has been
formulated in order to insure compliance with the standards. The need for
implementing Phase II should be based on the results obtained from Phase I.
The measures associated with both phases of the proposed transportation
control strategy are listed below:
Phase I
• Air quality surveillance system
• Mandatory vehicle inspection/maintenance for all vehicles
• Retrofit emission control for all pre-1968 vehicles
• Evaporative emission control.
Phase II (if necessary)
• Vehicle exchange program
• Limited second vehicle registration
A brief description of each measure is presented in the following.
A more definitive description of these measures appears in the text of
the city report.
Air Quality Surveillance System
The surveillance system proposed in this strategy uses the existing
system and the system recommended by the Arizona State Implementation Plan
as a foundation for developing the capability for monitoring Set II pollutants
in the Phoenix-Tucson problem area. The recommendations in this strategy
consist mostly of expanding the use of CO and Ox monitors through the
metropolitan area to provide for reasonable accuracy in evaluating peaks
and trends in air quality and in assessing the effectiveness of the imple-
mentation plan. It has been found that sites used or proposed prior to
this strategy can generally be used and that they provide an effective
3-52
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distribution of monitors. The approximate cost of equipment for the system
proposed in this strategy is $24,000 and $33,000. In addition, the MCHD
mobile lab is regarded as a highly useful means of determining the spread
of pollutant concentration and of identifying the need for longer-term
monitoring and source control.
Mandatory Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
One of the key components of the transportation control strategy
involves a mandatory program of vehicle inspection/maintenance. Such a
program will yield not only moderate emission reductions from the present
vehicle fleet, but will also insure the proper operation of advanced con-
trol systems as they are introduced into the automobile population. It is
this second factor that, in the long run, will have the largest impact on
air quality.
Current studies indicate that the most cost-effective program involves
a yearly exhaust emission inspection under load, followed as necessary by
fuel ratio, ignition system (misfire), air cleaner, and PCV valve. Pass/
fail exhaust emission criteria should be established to obtain the necessary
emission reductions. A rejection rate of 30 to 40 percent may be required
for the first year. The program should include a certification of service
garages involved to insure reliable maintenance repair. Any retest of
emissions after maintenance should be made optional. Estimates of potential
emission reduction for the total population are 12 percent for hydrocarbons,
10 percent for carbon monoxide, and 0 percent for oxides of nitrogen. These
reductions can be achieved for an annual cost of between $5 and $15 per car.
Retrofit Emission Control
The second recommended control measure consists of retrofitting the
pre-1968 portion of the vehicle population. Basically, there are two retro-
fit approaches that are suitable for use in the Phoenix metropolitan area.
The first one -- Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD) -- is particularly
attractive for use on older vehicles in terms of potential emission reduc-
tion, cost, reliability and ease of implementation. Costs, including labor
and with a simple override mechanism, should be from $15 to $30. Some
3-53
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deterioration in fuel economy and driveability will occur on the average.
Overheating may be a serious problem, especially during hot weather.
The other retrofit approach -- Lean Idle Setting (LIS) -- has good
possibilities except for a high probability of owner or mechanic tampering.
This procedure involves the additional leaning out of the air/fuel ratio
beyond the manufacturer's specification. The cost per adjustment should
be nominal -- $3 to $6 -- and fuel economy should improve slightly on the
average. This modification is theoretically simple, but present mechanic
ability and instrumentation limitations indicate the need for substantial
improvement.
The combined emission reduction potential for both retrofit devices
was computed as 25 percent for HC, 9 percent for CO, and 23 percent for
NOX. Again, this is consistent with current EPA estimates. In order to
insure proper operation of these two systems, especially LIS, it is sug-
gested that both be incorporated into the annual inspection program.
Evaporative Emission Control
The third element of the control strategy calls for the control of
evaporative losses. Vehicle operation (carburetor and gas tank) and gaso-
line marketing (gas tank and storage tank filling) represent the two main
sources of hydrocarbon evaporative losses in the Phoenix area. For con-
trolling losses from the inuse fleet (pre-1971), it is recommended that
the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) for all gasoline marketed in the Phoenix
area be controlled seasonally. This should yield more than a 30 percent
reduction in vehicle operating losses with moderate impact (approximately
1-2<£ per gallon) on overall marketing operations. Some driveability problems
may occur (during start-up), although they should be of a minimal nature.
The photochemical reactivity of the evaporated hydrocarbons may be altered
by changing the RVP, but it appears that the change will be small.
Several methods are available for controlling evaporative losses
from gasoline marketing. These include a totally enclosed transfer system
used with either an adsorber, condenser or vapor return system. Approxi-
3-54
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mately 70 percent of the vehicles on the road (mostly domestic) can be
serviced from one adaptive system. The average costs of equipping service
stations in the Phoenix area with evaporative recovery systems should run
about $2000 per station.
Vehicle Exchange Program
All things considered, older vehicles (pre-1968) emit higher emis-
sions per mile than do later model automobiles. The Vehicle Exchange
Program is designed to take advantage of this situation by limiting the
importation of pre-1968 vehicles and by replacing some of the older vintage
cars with newer, lower emitting vehicles. Considerations should be given
to limiting out-of-state vehicle registration for pre-1968 cars after 31
December 1973. This would have the effect of reducing the aggregate
exhaust emissions by about 3 percent.
Coupled with this would be a program to replace a segment of the
older in-use cars with newer state and local government vehicles. One
phase of this program would be to increase the rate of turnover of state
owned vehicles to around 50 percent per year. Based on the current size
of the state fleet, approximately 5000 cars would be available for exchange
with pre-1968 vehicles on a yearly basis.
Criteria for exchange would have to be developed, based upon income
considerations, in order to maximize program effectiveness. This combined
program would be of short-term value, since by 1980 only about 3
percent of the vehicle population will consist of pre-1968 automobiles.
The administrative costs of this program should only add a small increment
to ongoing registration costs. However, the costs associated with exchang-
ing these vehicles may be on the order of several million additional dollars
annually.
The net effect of both programs in terms of emission reduction
potential should be around 3 percent.
3-55
-------
Limited Second Vehicle Registration
A preliminary assessment of the impact of the foregoing measures
on air quality indicates the potential need for additional vehicle control.
Specifically, it appears that up to 30 percent reduction in
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) -- implying a need for an additional thirty
percent air quality improvement -- may be required to achieve the national
standards. The uncertainty in this estimate is closely related to the
uncertainty in the baseline emissions data and limitations in the current
methods used for predicting future air quality.
One approach for insuring such a reduction in VMT is by restricting
the use of second and third family cars. This could be accomplished through
the registration process, but the details and implications of a specific
program would have to be very carefully assessed in terms of the political,
institutional, legal and socio-economic impact on the Phoenix area. One
positive benefit of such a program would be more efficient use of the
family's primary vehicle which in turn would tend to encourage car pooling
and some additional use of the mass transit system. Variances on this
restriction could be granted if the vehicle were converted over to operate
on gaseous fuels.
Preliminary estimates of the carrying capacity of the Phoenix trans-
portation system indicate sufficient flexibility to accommodate a substantial
portion of the affected motoring public. It should be re-emphasized, how-
ever, that vehicle use restriction control measures should not be implemented
until further analysis (using refined air quality data and improved fore-
casting techniques) can demonstrate the inherent need.
Application of the proposed control strategy on forecasted Set II
concentration levels for the Phoenix area yielded the following results:
t Hydrocarbon levels (6-9 AM Max) are well below the standard
by 1975
• Carbon Monoxide levels (1 Hr Max) are well below the standard
by 1977
3-56
-------
• Carbon Monoxide levels (8 Hr Max) are within the standard
by 1977
t Nitrogen Dioxide levels (annual) are substantially above the
standard through 1980
• Photochemical oxidants levels (1 Hr Max) are within the standard
by 1975
The variances in predicted air quality for CO and Ox vis-a-vis the standards
are well within the limits of uncertainty associated with the data base and
methods of forecasting.
3-57
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3.10 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS-PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA
3.10.1 Air Quality and Emissions
It was found that while the National Ambient Air Quality Standards
for both carbon monoxide and oxidants are being exceeded at the present
time, only the CO emissions will constitute a problem by 1977. This is
because, although the FMVECP together with the planned controls on
stationary sources will not, of themselves, quite achieve the reduction
necessary to meet the oxidant standards by 1977, the transportation control
strategies which will be required to attain the standard for CO by that
time will also satisfy the requirement for reduction of hydrocarbon emis-
sions sufficient to attain oxidant standards.
Tables Pitt.l and Pitt.2 show the expected emissions and ambient
concentrations for 1970 through 1986.
3.10.2 Control Strategies
In order of preference, the recommended strategies are:
STRATEGY AMOUNT OF ROLLBACK EXPECTED
Inspection and maintenance (affects en- 9% (CO); 10.8% (HC)
tire Region)
Traffic flow improvements through the 1.4% (CO & HC)
upgrading of existing streets (affects
Zone 1 only) Strategy I
Increase daily parking rate by $1,45, use 5.5% (CO & HC)
existing parking space in fringe areas,
and improve short-term mass transit
(affects Zone 1 only) Strategy II
Retrofit program (use of oxidizing catalytic 8.2%* (CO & HC)
converters) (affects entire Region)
The amounts of rollback shown are taken for each strategy as though it
were the only one to be adopted. The actual amounts expected as a result
of the total program package are shown below for CO.
*Note: Only one quarter of available retrofit reduction was allowed. See
City Report.
3-58
-------
Successive Reductions And
Resultant Emissions Rates
1972 CO emissions from motor vehicles, Zone 1 27,111 kg/day
(the "Baseline" value)
Less expected reduction from FMVECP (51.6% of 13,991
baseline)
1977 vehicular CO emission rate, no strategies 13,120
184 due to Strategy I
Less 1.4% emission reduction expected from
traffice flow improvements (2% increase
in average speed)
Less 5.5% emission reduction expected from
parking strategies and improvements in
short-term mass transit (5.5% decrease
in VMT within Zone 1)
Less 9.0% emission reduction expected from
regional or state-wide inspection and
maintenance program
Less 8.2% emission reduction expected from
regional or state-wide retrofit program
(oxidizing catalytic converters attached
to 1968-1974 model year vehicles)
Net expected CO emission rate for Zone 1
12,936
711 due to Strategy II
12,225*
1,100 due to I & M program
11,125*
912 due to retrofit
10,213* kg/day
It will be seen that this strategy package reduces CO emissions to
slightly below the level required to attain the 9.0 ppm eight-hour average
CO level.
Similarly, it will be seen from Table Pitt.2 that Inspection &
Maintenance and Retrofit reduce hydrocarbon emissions below the levels
necessary to attain oxidant standards by 1977.
*Computational procedures lead to small differences between these figures
and those shown in Table Pitt.l.
3-59
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TABLE PITT.l
TOTAL CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS IN KG/DAY AND EXPECTED MAXIMUM EIGHT-HOUR AVERAGE CO CONCENTRATIONS
IN PPM FOR PITTSBURGH, ZONE 1 (CBD)
YEAR
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
NON-VEHICULAR
EMISSIONS
2,200
1,940
1,680
1 ,419
1,419
1,419
1,469
1 ,520
1 ,573
1,628
1 ,685
1,744
1 ,805
1 ,868
1 ,933
NO STRATEGIES
VEHICLE
EMISSIONS
29,530
28,541
27,111
24,654
22,343
19,538
15,992
13,120
10,698
8,897
7,199
5,974
5,278
4,825
4,447
4,404
4,309
CONCEN-
TRATION
21.3
19.3
17.5
15.2
12.7
10.6
8.8
7.6
6.4
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.5
WITH STRATEGIES
1 AND 2
VEHICULAR EMISSION
22,119
18,910
15,028
12,207
9,965
8,300
6,730
5,598
4,957
4,540
4,192
4,154
4,067
WITH I & M
VEHICULAR EMISSION
14,352
11,108
9,068
7,553
6,124
5,094
4,511
4,131
3,815
3,780
3,701
WITH
RETROFIT
VEHICULAR EMISSION
13,764
10,197
8,324
6,934
5,622
4,676
4,141
3,792
3,502
3,470
3,398
WITH STRATEGIES
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
29,311
26,594
23,799
20,329
15,183
11,616
9,793
8,454
7,195
6,304
5,826
5,536
5,307
5,338
5,331
CONCEN-
TRATION
21.3
19.3
17.3
14.8
11.0
8.4
7.1
6.1
5.2
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
CO
I
-------
TABLE PITT.2
TOTAL HC EMISSIONS IN KG/DAY AND EXPECTED MAXIMUM ONE-HOUR AVERAGE OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS
IN PPM FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY
YEAR
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
NON-VEHICULAR
EMISSIONS
28,820
25,851
22,883
19,915
17,425
14,936
15,459
16,000
16,560
17,140
17,740
18,361
19,004
19,669
20,357
WITHOUT STRATEGIES
VEHICULAR
EMISSIONS
124,141
112,553
99,500
88,603
78,588
66,803
53,822
44,593
37,793
31,995
27,124
24,381
22,505
20,817
20,374
20,282
20,020
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
128,320
114,454
101,471
86,718
71 ,247
59,529
53,252
47,995
43,684
41 ,521
40,245
39,178
39,378
39,951
40,387
OX
CONC.
.165
.153
.140
.122
.101
.084
<.080
>
r
<.080
VEHICULAR EMISSIONS
WITH I & M
50,915
39,777
33,712
28,539
24,195
21 ,748
20,075
18,569
18,173
18,092
17,867
WITH
RETROFIT
48,828
36,516
30,947
26,199
22,211
19,964
18,429
17,046
16,683
16,608
16,402
WITH STRATEGIES
TOTAL OX
EMISSIONS CONC.
128,320 .165
114,454 .153
101,471 .140
86,718 .122
66,253 .095
51,452 <.080
46,406
42,199
38,771
37,104
36,169
35,407
35,687
36,277
v
<^
36,759 <.080
GO
-------
3.11 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - ST. PAUL/MINNEAPOLIS
MINNESOTA
3.11.1 Air Quality and Emissions
The one-hour average oxidant air quality standard will be attained
by 1977 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Areas, including the two
CBD's as demonstrated in Tables Minn.l and Minn.2. This standard will be
attained as a result of the hydrocarbon emission reductions obtained from
the FMVECP. In determining that the oxidant standard would be attained
by 1977, GCA took the conservative approach of not considering the applica-
tion of non-vehicular control strategies for hydrocarbons. With the
application of such non-vehicular control strategies, attaining the oxidant
standard by 1977 would be further assured.
Carbon Monoxide Air QualityBand Emissions
Eight-hour average CO air quality standards will be attained by
1977 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Metropolitan Area with the exception of
the Minneapolis CBD and St. Paul CBD with the CO emission reductions
obtained from the FMVECP. Tables Minn.3 and Minn.4 summarize the emissions
and air quality in the two CBD's with and without the application of the
recommended control strategies.
3.11.2 Control Strategies
The following transportation control strategies are recommended
and their impact is summarized in Tables Minn.3 and Minn.4.
Minneapolis CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with people mover
system estimated to reduce 1977 light-duty
VMT's by 8 percent.
Strategy 2: Traffic surveillance and control estimated
to increase average speed in Minneapolis
CBD from 14 mph to 20 mph by 1977.
3-62
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Table Minn.l. SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AIR QUALITY AND
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
A. Area = 2.2 sq. miles
B- Hydrocarbon Emissions (kg/12 hrs) and oxidant levels (ppm)
1977
Without
1971 Strategy
Vehicle Emissions 3,560 1,720
Non-Vehicular Emissions 1,540 1,840
Total Emissions 5,100 3,560
Oxidant level (1-hr
average) 0.114 < 0.08
3-63
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Table Minn.2. SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AND AIR QUALITY
AND HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS IN ST. PAUL CBD
A. Area =0.8 sq. miles
B. Hydrocarbon Emissions (kg/12 hrs) and oxldant levels (ppm)
1977
Without
1971 Strategy
Vehicle Emissions 1,290 620
Non-Vehicular Emissions 560 670
Total Emissions 1,850 1,290
Oxidant level (1-hr
average) 0.114 < 0.08
3-64
-------
Table Minn.3. SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS
IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
en
in
A. Area = 2.2 sq. miles
B. CO emissions (kg/12 hrs) and air quality levels (ppm)
Vehicle Emissions
Non-Vehicular
Emissions
Total Emissions
1971
27,960
240
28,200
1977
Without
Strategy
U,H6
284
14,400
1977
With
Strategy #1
Only
13,316
284
13,600
1977
With
Strategies
n & n
10,016
284
10,300
Without
Strategies
1978 1979
11,912 10,
288
12,200 10,
008
292
300
CO level (8-hr
average)
18.9
9.7
9.1
6.9
8.2
6.9
-------
GO
I
Table Minn.4. SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS
IN ST. PAUL CBD
A. Area = 0.8 sq. miles
B. CO emissions (kg/12 hrs) and air quality (ppm)
Vehicle Emissions
Non- Vehicular
Emissions
Total Emissions
1971
10,013
87
10,100
1977
Without
Strategy
5,097
103
5,200
1977
With
Strategy #1
Only
4,697
103
4,800
1977
With
Strategies
#1 & #2
3,597
103
3,700
Without
Strategies
1978 1979
4,295 3,594
105 106
4,400 3,700
CO level (8-hr 18.6 9.5 8.8 6.8 8.1 6.8
average)
-------
St. Paul CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with shuttle
bus service estimated to reduce 1977
light-duty VMT's by 10 percent.
Strategy 2: Traffic signal system estimated to
increase average speed in St. Paul
CBD from 12 mph to 18 mph by 1977.
3-67
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3.12 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
The analysis described in the Cjty Report indicates a need for
transportation control strategies to reduce CO emissions within Salt Lake
City's central business district if the national eight-hour average
standard for CO concentration is to be attained by 1977. On the other
hand, the available data indicate that the oxidant standard and the one-
hour average CO standard will be attained throughout the urban area by
means of the FMVECP alone.
After evaluating the probable effectiveness and feasibility of a large
number of possible controls, the recommended strategy selected is Traffic
Flow Improvement, to be achieved principally by means of a computerized
traffic signal system (TOPICS Improvement Project No. 1). Current estimates
indicate that the standards may be met in 1977 by implementation of this
strategy. However, it is recommended that consideration be given to
"back-up" strategies, including mass transit development, in the event
that additional controls prove necessary. It is also recommended that
the role of the automobile — in particular, parking in the downtown
area -- be carefully re-evaluated.
Table SLC.l summarizes the magnitude of the problem and the effect
of the computerized traffic signal system on CO emissions in the area
of principal concern. At the request of EPA, projections were made
from two baseline years, 1970 and 1971. It is emphasized again that
the air quality estimates are "best estimates" based on available data
and the proportional model. Also, experience shows that considerable
variation in the maximum (or second highest) eight-hour concentration
will be experienced at a given sampling location from year to year even
under relatively constant emission rates. Finally, in addition to the
temporal variation in air quality at a given station, substantial spatial
variations are to be expected within the CBD. The predicted concentrations
are presented in tenths of a part per million simply to indicate the
anticipated overall trend in air quality.
3-68
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Table SLC.l. SUMMARY EMISSION AND CO AIR QUALITY DATA FOR SALT LAKE CITY (ZONE H)
Without Strategies
1970 1971 1977 1978
2
a) Emission Densities (kg/8 hr/mi )
Vehicular
Non- vehicular
Total
b) Air Quality (8-hr average in ppm)
Observed (2nd Highest)
Estimated
From 1970 data
From 1971 data
c) Maximum Allowable Emission Level
7878 7691 4156
161 161 161
8039 7852 4317
22 17
11.8
9.3
(kg/8 hr/mi2)
3511
161
3672
10.0
8.0
Total Non-vehicular
Estimated
From 1970 data
From 1971 data
d) Reduction in Vehicular Emissions
Reference Year
1970
1971
3289
4157
from 1971 levels (percent)
161
161
From Federal Motor Vehicle
Control Program by 1977
46
46
With Strategy
(signal system
1979 1977
2975 3471
161 16L
3136 3632
8.6 9.9
6.8 7.9
Vehicular
3128
3996
Additional Required
by Strategies
13
2
-------
The analysis of hydrocarbon emissions indicated that emissions from
motor vehicles will decrease by 52 percent between 1971 and 1977 as a
result of the FMVECP and that total emissions of hydrocarbons in a 14
square mile central zone of Salt Lake City will be about 30 percent below
the allowable level in 1977.
3-70
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3.13 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
The analysis described in the City Report indicates a need for
transportation control strategies to reduce CO emissions within Seattle's
central business district if the national eight-hour average standard for
CO concentration is to be attained by 1977. On the other hand, the availa-
ble data indicate that the oxidant standard and the one-hour average CO
standard will be met throughout the urban area by means of the FMVECP alone.
This assessment is based on recently acquired data and is somewhat at
variance with the assessment made in the Implementation Plan which was
based upon air quality measurements made in 1970 near a major freeway and
indicated that both CO and oxidant problems would still be present in
Seattle in 1977 unless transportation control strategies were adopted.
After evaluating a large number of possible controls, three strategies
are recommended for implementation. They are:
1. METRO Transit development
2. Fringe parking with Personalized
Rapid Transit (PRT)
3. Improved downtown signal system
These three strategies together provide about one-third of the reduction in
emissions required to meet the national eight-hour standard. The remaining
reduction can be achieved through strategies which directly limit emissions
from operating vehicles, such as retrofit, gaseous conversion of fleet
vehicles and inspection, or by strategies which eliminate older vehicles
from the CBD. The single strategy of excluding all pre-controlled vehicles
from the CBD, in conjunction with Strategies 1, 2, and 3 above, is judged
to be just sufficient. A margin of safety can be introduced by means of
additional strategies, if desired. The general use of retrofit systems
with the requisite annual inspection and maintenance program, results in
reductions considerably greater than required, and is not looked upon
with favor by the State of Washington at the present time.
3-71
-------
Table Sea.l summarizes the CO problem and the cumulative effects of
Strategies 1, 2, and 3 plus the exclusion of pre-controlled vehicles. It
is emphasized again that the air quality estimates are "best estimates"
based on available data and the proportional model. Also, experience shows
that considerable variation in the maximum (or second highest) eight-hour
concentration will be experienced at a given sampling location from year
to year even under relatively constant emission rates. Finally, in addition
to the temporal variation in air quality at a given station, substantial
spatial variations are to be expected within the CBD. The predicted
concentrations are presented in tenths of a part per million simply to
indicate the anticipated overall trend in air quality.
The analysis of hydrocarbon emissions indicated that emissions from
motor vehicles will decrease by 51 percent between 1971 and 1977 as a
result of the FMVECP and that total emissions of hydrocarbons in the 23
square mile central zone of Seattle will be 16 percent below the allowable
level in 1977. Use of the oxidant data used in the Implementation Plan,
however, indicate the need for an additional reduction in vehicular emissions
of 6.6 percent.
3-72
-------
Table Sea.L. SUMMARY EMISSION AND CO AIR QUALITY DATA FOR SEATTLE CBD
OJ
i
CO
Without Strategies
1971 1977
1978
a) Emission Densities (kg/8 hr/mi )
Vehicular
Non-vehicular
Total
b) Air Quality (8-hr average in ppm)
Observed (2nd highest)
Estimated
14,301 8,175 6,951
292 292 292
1979
6,001
292
With Strategies (1977)
METRO + PRT + Sig.Sys. + Exclus ion
8,032 7,875 7,579 6,275
292 292 292 292
14,593 8,467 7,243 6,293 8,324 8,167 7,871 6,567
20
11.6 9.9
8.6
c) Maximum Allowable Emission Level (kg/8 hr/mi )
Non-Vehicular
Total
6,567
292
Vehicular
6,275
d) Reduction in Vehicular Emissions from 1971 levels
Percent
From Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program 43
Additional Required by Transportation Control 13
Strategies
d) Reduction in Vehicular Emissions from 1977 "no strategy" level
Percent
Required by Transportation Control Strategies 23
11.4 11.2
10.8
9.0
-------
3.14 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
The analysis described in the City Report indicates a need for
transportation control strategies to reduce CO emissions within Spokane's
central business district if the national eight-hour average standard for
CO concentration is to be attained by 1977. On the other hand, the
available data indicate that the oxidant standard and the one-hour average
CO standard will be attained throughout the urban area by means of the
FMVECP alone.
After evaluating a large number of possible controls, three strategies
are recommended for implementation. They are:
1. A computer controlled signal system in
downtown Spokane
2. Transit improvement
3. Pedestrian separations (second level
sidwalks)
These three strategies together provide about half the reduction in emissions
required to meet the national eight-hour standard. The remaining reduction
can be achieved through strategies which directly limit emissions from
operating vehicles, such as retrofit, gaseous conversion of fleet vehicles
and inspection, or by strategies which eliminate older vehicles from the
CBD. The single strategy of excluding all pre-controlled vehicles from
the CBD, in conjunction with Strategies 1, 2, and 3 above is judged to be
more that sufficient to bring about the necessary reduction in emissions.
The necessary additional reduction can also be attained by the use of the
"air bleed to intake manifold" retrofit device on pre-1968 vehicles.
Table Spo.l summarizes the CO problem and the cumulative effects of
Strategies 1, 2, and 3 plus the exclusion of pre-controlled, light-duty
vehicles. It is emphasized again that the air quality estimates are
"best estimates" based on available data and the proportional model.
Also, experience shows that considerable variation in the maximum (or
second highest) eight-hour concentration will be experienced at a given
sampling location from year to year even under relatively constant emission
3-74
-------
Table Spo.l. SUMMARY EMISSIONS AND CO AIR QUALITY DATA FOR
SPOKANE CBD
GO
i
a)
b)
c)
d)
d)
Without
1971 1977
2
Emission Densities (kg/8 hr/mi )
Vehicular 7932 4751
Non-vehicular 162 162
Total 8094 4913
Air Quality (8-hr average in ppm)
Observed (2nd highest) 18
Estimated 10.9
2
Maximum Allowable Emission Level (kg/8 hr/mi )
Total Non-Vehicular
4047 162
Reduction in Vehicular Emissions from 1971 levels
Strategies
1978 1979
4066 3482
162 162
4228 3644
9.4 8.1
Vehicular
3885
Percent
With Strategies (1977)
Sig. Trans. Fed. Exclu-
Svs. + Imp. 4- Sep. + sion
4454 4352 4351 3,543
162 162 162 162
4616 4514 4513 3,705
10.3 10.0 10.0 8.2
From Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program 40
Additional Required by Transportation Control 11
Strategies
Reduction in Vehicular Emissions from 1977 "no strategy" level
Percent
Required by Transportation Control Strategies
18
-------
rates. Finally, in addition to the temporal variation in air quality at
a given station, substantial spatial variations are to be expected within
the CBD. The predicted concentrations are presented in tenths of a part
per million simply to indicate the anticipated overall trend in air
quality.
3-76
-------
APPENDIX A
ATTITUDINAL SURVEY
The following represents the results of a questionnaire distributed
in seven metropolitan areas for the purpose of gaining some insight to
public attitudes towards air pollution and transportation control measures
designed to reduce air pollution. The survey was conducted with the
assistance of a professional market research group* which maintains
standing panels of households in each major metropolitan area; each
representing a broad cross-section of households in the given area.
The seven metropolitan areas surveyed include:
• Dayton, Ohio
t Denver, Colorado
• Houston, Texas
• Los Angeles, California
• New York, Hew York
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
t Phoenix, Arizona
*Market Facts, Inc., 100 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60606
A-l
-------
MAJOR FINDINGS
A. Auto Air Pollution
1. About 85-95 percent of all respondents in all cities feel
auto air pollution is a serious or very serious nation-
wide problem. This feeling is highest in Denver (94%)
and lowest in Houston (85%).
2. Respondents in all seven cities feel that auto air pollution
is a more serious problem nationwide than it is locally.
3. A law requiring auto emission control equipment of all pre
1975 cars is much more acceptable at a government sub-
sidized cost of $50 than a non-government subsidized cost
of $200. Regardless of the cost, this law is viewed more
favorably by respondents in New York and Philadelphia.
A law requiring inspection of this equipment is also
viewed more favorably by respondents in New York and
Philadelphia. Respondents in all cities feel the cost of
this inspection should be under $9. 0.0.
4. In all cities the two most acceptable proposals for con-
trolling auto air pollution are "prohibit traffic/parking
in central business districts" and "create car pool/bus
only lanes on major thoroughfares". The two most
unacceptable are "gasoline rationing" and "$500 re-
gistration fee for each auto".
V
5. Interest in car pools as a means of reducing auto air
pollution is about 40-50 percent of the respondents in
each city; but the prospect of joining one or organizing
one is viewed as difficult by 75-85 percent of non-car
pool riders.
A-2
-------
6. The prohibition of parking, loading and unloading on
busy streets is rated as being very effective or
somewhat effective by respondents in New York (90%)
and Dayton (98%) in reducing traffic congestion.
Respondents in the remaining cities feel that improving
the timing of traffic signals would be the best way to
reduce traffic congestion. All cities agree that widen-
ing major streets at intersections would be the least
effective way of reducing traffic congestion.
B. Transportation Usage
1. Public transportation usage is highest in New York
(229 trips per household per year) and Philadelphia
(135). The remaining cities are much lower in usage
(under 40).
2. Reasons for public transportation usage vary by city.
Overall it is used in New York and Philadelphia
because its cheaper and faster. In Denver its used
because its cheaper and less congested. In Los Angeles
its used out of necessity (no car available or no drivers
license). Reasons for usage in the other cities vary.
3. Reasons for auto usage are the same in all cities - faster,
more flexible, more available.
4. The most effective proposals for encouraging usage of
public transportation facilities tend to be similar to the
reasons poeple travel by auto - more frequent service,
faster travel, more conveniently located stops and
stations and lower fares. This is true for almost all
seven cities.
5. In all cities there is substantial reluctance (66% or higher )
to disposingof any car or cars even if public transportation
was improved. « ^
-------
DETAILED FINDINGS - AUTO AIR POLLUTION
1. SERIOUSNESS OF AUTO AIR POLLUTION
Feelings that auto air pollution is a "serious or very se,rious" nation-
wide problem were highest in Denver (94%) and lowest in Houston (84%).
Feelings that auto air pollution is a "serious or very oerious" problem
in their city were highest in Los Angeles (81%) and lowest in Dayton
(45%).
In all seven cities respondents felt that auto air pollution is more of a
serious or very serious problem in the nation than in their particular
city.
Said Auto Air
Pollution Nation-
wide Is:
Very serious
Serious
Slightly serious
No problem
Said Auto Air
Pollution In Their
City Is:
Very serious
Serious
Slightly serious
No problem
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
43
42
14
1
49
27
17
7
07 Of Of
/O /O /O
46 41 56
41 44 33
12 15 11
1
31 1
40 3
3 27
2 33
25 40 36
4 15 4
«•_
49
35
15
1
51
25
17
7
^^•M
55
39
5
1
39
30
24
7
41
48
9
2
55
26
15
4
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-4
-------
2. REGULATION OF AUTO AIR POLLUTION THROUGH
EMISSION CONTROL EQUIPMENT
a. By Law Requiring Equipment on All Autos
Respondents were asked how they would feel about a possible law requiring
them in 1975 to put emission control equipment on cars manufactured prior
to 1975 at both a non government subsidized cost of $200 per car or a
government subsidized cost of $50 per car. In all cities the subsidized
cost was preferred over the non subsidized cost by a margin of two to one.
Regardless of the cost to the owner, respondents in New York and Philadel-
phia were more in favor of the law than respondents in other cities.
Feel This Way About
A Law in 1975 Requiring
A Car Owner to Put
Emission Control
Equipment on Their
Pre 1975 Model Cars:
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
O/ ft/
10 /(>
At Cost of $200 Per Car:
Very much in favor
Somewhat in favor
14
28
12
30
11
23
Somewhat against 19 18 25
Very much against 39 40 41
13
20
17
50
9
25
22
44
10
21
15
54
11
22
13
54
At Cost of $50 Per Car:
Very much in favor
Somewhat in favor
Somewhat against
Very much against
49
20
12
19
45
26
9
20
50
24
11
15
43
23
15
19
(Total Number
Respondents)
;i64) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-5
-------
b. By Law Requiring Inspection of Equipment
Respondents were also asked how they would feel about a law requiring periodic
inspection of emission control systems, how much they would be willing to pay
for the inspection and where the inspection should be made. The majority of
respondents in all cities were in favor of the law (about 90% in favor).
The mean amount respondents would pay for inspection is $6.93. Respondents
in Dayton would pay the most ($8.90) and Denver respondents the least ($4.58).
Respondents in all cities except Houston and Denver prefer to have their car
inspected at state-operated inspection center. Houston and Denver respondents
prefer their local service stations or garages.
Feel This Way About
L.a\v Requiring Inspection
Of Emission Control
Equipment:
Very much in favor
Somewhat in favor
Somewhat against
Very much against
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Ange les
72
19
61
31
42
36
4 4 11
5 4 11
54
26
57
25
10
8
59
26
9
6
70
48
32
12
Would Pay This Mean
Amount For Inspection:
Would Prefer to Have
Car Inspected At:
State operated center
City operated center
Local service station/
garage
Other
(Total Number of
Respondents)
JL JL
. 80 7. 02 8.
i A
45 62
10 3
39 32
6 3
JL JL
90 6.89
%_ %.
43 50
17 14
32 32
8 4
42
9
36
46
52
7. 87
41
14
39
6
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-6
-------
3. PROPOSALS TO CONTROL AUTO AIR POLLUTION
Respondents were asked to evaulate several proposals aimed at reducing the
amount of auto air pollution in their cities. Each proposal was evaluated in
terms of the following scale:
Very Acceptable (+2)
Somewhat Acceptable (+1)
Neither Acceptable or Unacceptable ( 0)
Somewhat Unacceptable (-1)
Very Unacceptable (-2)
A mean rating for each proposal was calculated using the weights indicated
above in the parentheses. A positive mean rating means the proposal is
acceptable. A negative rating indicated unacceptability of the proposal. A
rating close to zero indicates indifference to the proposal.
Based on the mean ratings, in all seven cities the two most acceptable pro-
posals were to "create bus only and car pool only lanes on major thorough-
fares" and to "prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts".
The two least acceptable proposals were to "have a very high ($500) regis-
tration fee per auto owned" and to "ration gasoline".
It is worth noting that the highest rating received by any proposal in any city
was . 9 and the lowest in any city was -1.9- In short none of the proposals
were rated as high as "somewhat acceptable" in any city while five of the
proposals were rated lower than "somewhat unacceptable" in all cities.
A-7
-------
Gave These Mean
TT—— ——— Respondents In These Cities:
Ratings To These r '
Proposals For New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
Reducing Auto Air York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
Pollution:
Gasoline rationing
$500 registration fee for
each auto
-1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5
-1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8
$500 registration fee for
2nd, 3rd, etc., auto -1.1 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -1.4
Prohibit traffic/parking
in central districts
.6 .6 .2 -.1 .2 .6 -. 1
Tax on all day parking in
central business
districts .2 -.2 -.3 -.3 -.4 -.1 -.5
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked -.3 -.8 -.7 -.9 -.9 -.7 -1.0
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy
traffic -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3
Control of auto usage
through special plates/
stickers -.2 -.4 -.7 -.6 -.9 -.3 -.4
Create "bus/car pool only"
lanes on major
thoroughfares
.8 .6 .5 .5 .9 .5 .6
(Total Number of
Respondents) (164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-8
-------
The mean ratings on the previous table are deceptive to the extent that the
degree of acceptability or unacceptability amongst the proposals is not
readily perceptible. Respondents were asked to record by letter which
proposal would be the most acceptable or unacceptable to them. The
following two tables show on a precentage basis the degree of acceptability
or unar:ceptability of each proposal. These tables mirror the mean ratings
in pointing out which two proposals are the most acceptable and least
acceptable.
It is worth noting that specific proposals in all cities have "most acceptable"
and "most unacceptable" shares that are low. These Low shares are no
reflection on the effectiveness of the proposal if implemented; but show a
lack of enthusiasm (either positive or negative) for the proposal. In short,
these proposals should not be cast aside without further consideration be-
cause of low "most acceptable" shares.
A-9
-------
Said These Proposals
Were Most Acceptable:*
Gasoline rationing
$500 registration fee
for each auto
$500 registration fee
for 2nd, 3rd, etc. ,
auto
Prohibit traffic /parking
in central business
districts
Tax on all day parkirg
in central business
districts
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy
traffic
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
36 38
33 24 25 35 18
10 13
7 11
Control of auto usage
through special plates/
stickers
Create "bus /car pool only"
lanes on major
thoroughfares
(Total Number of
Respondents)
18
41
14
30
13 12
9 19 20
36 45 56 34 48
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
* Percentages to over 100% due to multiple answers.
A-10
-------
Said These Proposals
Were Most Unacceptable:*
Gasoline rationing
$500 registration fee
for each auto
$500 registration fee
for 2nd, 3rd, etc. , auto
Prohibit traffic/parking
in central business
districts
Tax on all day parking in
central business
districts
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy
traffic
Control of auto usage
through special plates/
stickers
Create "bus/car pool only"
lanes on major
thoroughfares
All
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
39
30
27
33
44
33
30
50
61
59
55
50
54
56
9 10 10 10
7 11
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
* Percentages to over 100% due to multiple answers.
A-11
-------
a. Travelling to and From Work In a Car Pool
Respondents in all seven cities were also asked how they would feel about
travelling to and from work in a car pool and, if car pools became
necessary, how difficult or easy would it be for them to join or organize
one.
Interest on car pools among respondents was highest in Dayton and Denver
(about 50%) - with respondents in all the other cities are about equal in their
interest in them (about 40%).
Present usage of car pools ranges from four to nine percent. Non auto
travel to and from work is highest in New York (28%) and lowest in Houston
(6%). About seventy-five to eighty-five percent of all respondents who go to
work by auto, feel it would be difficult to join or organize a car pool.
Said They Would
Be This Interested
In A Car Pool:
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
18
21
14
26
«••»
12
35
29
39
35
17
25
38
13
24
48
19
31
33
18
22
44
Already in car pool
Do not travel by car
to and from work
Said Getting Into
A Car Pool Would Be:*
15 11
15
11 12
Difficult
Easy
83 84 80 79 74 74
86
17 16 20 21 26 26 14
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
* Percentaged over respondents presently not in a car pool.
A-12
-------
4. PROPOSALS TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION
One of the main causes of auto air pollution is traffic congestion and/or stop
and go driving. Respondents were asked to consider several proposals
aimed at reducing traffic congestion. Of the ten proposals considered, res-
pondents in all cities except New York and Dayton felt that improving the
timing of traffic signals would be the most effective method of reducing
traffic congestion. Respondents in New York and Dayton felt the prohibition
of parking, loading, and unloading on busy streets would be the most effective.
Respondents in all cities agreed that widening major streets at intersections
would be the least effective method of reducing traffic congestion.
In each city most proposals were rated very or somewhat effective by seventy
percent of the respondents. These generally high ratings mean that all of the
proposals are felt by the majority respondents to have some amount of effec-
tiveness in reducing traffic congestion.
A-13
-------
Said These Proposals
Would Be "Very" or
"Somewhat" Effective
In Reducing Traffic
Congestions:
Prohibit parking, loading
unloading on busy streets
Increase number of one-
way streets
Establish reversible lanes
for rush hours
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
71
72
94
68 66
74 66
90 92 92 89
84 79 82 73
77 58 63 69
Prohibit turns at busy
intersections for rush
hours
81
83 85 89 85 73
85
Widen major streets
Widen major streets
at intersections
Provide pedestrian
over passes/under-
passes
Improve timing of traffic
signals
Increase number and
frequency of
traffic reports
Create "bus/car pool
only" lanes
(Total Number of
Respondents)
81 83 81 88 88 78 80
63 54 61 62 53 50
86 85
86
69 71
81 82
95
48
95 77 85 81 82
71 67 74 73 70
77 73 87 78 78
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-14
-------
One additional proposal for reducing traffic congestion was presented to
respondents. This proposal was to have working hours staggered throughout
the day for the purpose of reducing large traffic flows during specific times
of the day - rush hours.
The majority of respondents in all cities had favorable attitudes towards this
proposal. Favorable attitudes towards this proposal were highest in New York
and Houston (about 70% in each). Attitudes opposed to this proposal were
highest in Dayton.
Felt This Way
About Staggered
Working Hours:
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
In favor of idea
Indifferent to idea
Opposed to idea
10
20
68
15
17
59
16
68
18
14
10
19
64
16
20
67
13
20
(Total Number of
Respondents)
;i64) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-15
-------
DETAILED FINDINGS - TRANSPORTATION USAGE
1. USAGE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Respondents (female household heads) in all cities were requested to obtain infor-
mation from other household members in addition to themselves regarding usage
and reasons for usage of auto and public (bus, subway, commuter train) transpor
tation. One of the questions answered by all household members (husband, wife,
children over 16 years old) pertained to usage of public transportation. The re-
sponses were recorded on the following scale and weighted to obtain a mean tra-
vel frequency per year:
Scale
Three or more times a week
One to two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months
Never
No Household member
Weight
208
78
12
4
0
(Not Applicable)
Households in New York and Philadelphia use public transportation far more fre-
quently than households in the other cities. An average household in New York
uses public transportation 229 times per year. In Philadelphia this figure is 135
time s. A typical household in Phoenix uses public transportation an average of
10 times per year; Houston and Los Angeles less than 30 times per year and
Dayton and Denver less than 40 times.
In all cities except Phoenix, children (over 16 years old) are the most frequent
users of public transportation. In all cities except New York, the wife tends to
use public transportation more often than the husband.
Public Transportation
Is Used By These
Household Members:
Husband
Wife
Children (over 16 years old)
Mean Number of Times Per Year In These Cities:
New Phila-
York delphia
73 30
6 1 36
T> (-1)
Day- Phoe-
ton nix
4 1
9 6
?.'i 3
Hous-
ton
4
4
20
Den-
ver
5
8
21
Los
Angeles
3
7
17
Total Per Year*
Per Household
(Total Number of
Respondents)
229
135
38
10
28
34
27
(164) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
* Wording of question is such that "times" is interpreted to be a round trip not a
one -way trip. .
M — I 0
-------
2. REASONS FOR USAGE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Household members indicating usage of public transportation were asked to
rank in order of importance several prelisted reasons for using public
transportation. Their most important reason was ranked "1", next impor-
tant "2" etc. Means were calculated on the basis of the numerical rank.
The following three tables show the mean ranking given each reason by
the various household members (husband, wife, children over 16 years old).
Eligible household members who did not rank a reason were excluded from
the mean scores.
Although the number of household members eligible to answer is very small
in some cities, some generalizations can be made about reasons for using public
transportation. In New York husbands and wives use public transportation
because it is cheap and fast. In Philadelphia husbands use it for the same
reasons as New York husbands, but Philadelphia wives use public transportation
because they don't have drivers licenses or because its more available.
Husbands and wives in Dayton, Phoenix and Houston tend to vary their reasons
for usage. Denver husbands and wives use it because its cheaper and less
congested. "No drivers license" and "no car available" tend to be the reasons
for public transportation usage by both husbands and wives in Los Angeles.
Children in all cities use public transportation because its cheaper, faster,
and more available than other forms of transportation.
A-17
-------
Husbands in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Public Transportation: *
C heaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (76) (54) (8) (6)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
New-
York
2.9
2. 8
5.3
5.4
4.6
3.4
5.2
4.4
9. 0
5. 3
Phila-
delphia
2.7
3.0
5.2
5. 3
3.4
4. 1
7.5
4. 0
6.7
4.6
Day-
ton
4.0
2. 5
4.0
2. 5
1. 1
7.5
8.5
3.8
6.0
5.7
Phoe-
nix
4.0
4.0
3.3
7.0
7. 0
3.0
5. 5
6.3
6.0
3.7
Hous-
ton
3. 3
5. 7
6.5
5. 5
8. 0
3.7
2. 5
2. 0
-
3. 2
Den-
ver
1.8
4.0
4.6
3.0
2.7
6.0
5. 1
4.0
10. 0
4.0
Los
Angeles
2.7
7. 0
7. 5
8. 0
6.0
5. 5
6.0
3.3
1. 0
1.4
(6) (18)
(10)
Wives in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Public Transportation: *
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives) (102) (89) (18) (20)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
New
York
2. 8
2. 8
5.9
5.4
5. 3
3. 3
4. 8
5. 4
5. 0
3. 7
Phila-
delphia
4. 2
3.8
5. 1
5.0
4. 5
3.6
4.2
4. 1
| 3.4 |
3.8
Day-
ton
3.9
4.5
4.8
3.2
3.8
4.4
4.4
3. 1
4.3
3.6
Phoe-
nix
3.9
4.0
5. 3
4.0
3.9
4. 0
4. 2
4. 8
6.8
5.0
Hous-
ton
3.3
6. 0
7. 0
3. 0
4. 0
2. 8
b. 5
9.0
1.4
1. 2
Den-
ver i
2.1
4. 3
4.4
4. 1
3.2
3.8
4.7
4. 1
4.7
4.4
Los
\ngele
3. 1
7.2
6.5
3.8
4.0
3.0
2.2
5.0
2.3
2.3
s
(13) (47) (29)
A-18
-------
Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Public Transportation: *
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den-
York delphia ton nix ton ver
3.5 3.8 3.0 - - |2.2
3.8 :
!.0 1.0 - - 2.0
6.3 5.9 - - - 5.7
6.0 4.7 - - 4.7
6.6 4.8 - - - 4.0
2.7 '•
!. 1 1.7 - 2.0 2.2
5.6 5.9 - - - 6.5
6.0 6.4 - - - 4.7
2.7| 5.1 1.5 - 1.0 4.0
3.5 4.3 1.0 - 2.0 2.8
Los
Angeles
1.5
7.0
9.0
10.0
6.0
4.0
5. 0
8.0
1. 0
2. 0
(Total Number of
Eligible Children)
(36) (32)
(8)
(3)
[8)
[13)
(9)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
A-19
-------
3. REASONS FOR USING AUTO TRANSPORTATION
Household members were also asked to indicate their reasons for traveling
by auto in a similiar manner as they indicated their reasons for traveling
by public transportation. The following three tables "show the mean ranking
given each reason by the various household member. Once again, eligible
household members who did not rank a reason were excluded from the mean
scores.
All household members in all seven cities are in agreement as to the most
important reasons for traveling by auto. They travel by auto because it is
faster, more flexible, and more available.
A-20
-------
Husbands in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Auto Transportation: #
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (123) (149) (81) (144) (142) (175) (159)
* The higher the number, the less important the reason.
New
York
4.7
2. 2
3.2
5.9
5. 0
2. 8
2. 8
4.9
Phila-
delphia
5. 1
|2.6
3.9
6.3
5.4
2.5
2.4
4.0
Day-
ton
5.2
2.7
4.4
6.6
6.2
2. 1
2.5
4.4
Phoe-
nix
5. 3
3.0
4. 5
6.3
5.9
2.0
2.3
4. 0
Hous-
ton
5.7
2. 8
4.6
6.6
5.6
2.4
2.4
3.7
Den-
Los
ver Angeles
5. 7
2.8
4.6
6.7
5.4
2.0
2.6
3.6
5. 5
2.4
4. 8
6. 5
5.6
2.2
2.6
3.4
Wives in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Auto Transportation: *
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives) (137) (164) (89) (168) (153) (193) (180)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
New
Phila-
York delphia
5.2
2.9
3. 1
5. 7
5.0
2. 8
2.9
4. 1
5.3
3.0
3.9
6.3
5.3
2. 3
2.2
4.6
Day-
ton
4.8
2.9
3. 8
6.4
5.9
2.0
2. 3
4.5
Phoe-
nix
5. 3
2.6
4.6
6.1
6.0
1.9
2. 2
4. 8
Hous-
ton
5. 8
3. 1
4. 2
6.5
5. 5
2.6
2.2
3.8
Den-
Los
ver Angeles
5.7
2.7
4.8
6.6
5.7
2. 1
2.3
3.6
5.4
2.6
4.6
6.4
5.7
2. 0
2.2
3.4
A-21
-------
Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to
These Reasons for Using
Auto Transportation; *
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
New
York
5.5
2.0
3.5
6.8
4.7
3.0
1.7
4.1
Phila-
delphi.
5.5
|2. 3
3.7
5.7
4.1
|2.2
|2.3
6.9
Day- Phoe- I
i ton nix
4.9 4.2
|2.4| | 2. 7 |
3.7 4.7
6.0 5.3
6. 6 5. 2
| 1. 7 | |l.6:|
|2.8| |T.7|
4.7 3.6
Hous-
ton
5.6
2.7
4.4
6.4
5.. 5
.2 :. i :
2. 0
3.9
Den-
ver i
5.4
1 2. 6 |
5.4
6. 1
5..0
1.8
1.7
5. 1
Los
Angeles
5. 5
2.5
4.6
6.2
5.7
1.9
2.0
4. 1
(Total Number of
Eligible Children)
(44) (52) (30) (60) (58) (55) (63)
:The higher the number, the less important the reason.
A-22
-------
PROPOSALS FOR ENCOURAGE USE OF
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Household members were asked to rate various proposals designed to encourage
increased usage of public transportation facilities. Proposals were rated in the
same manner as were the reasons for traveling by auto and public transportation.
That is, the most effective proposal was rated "1", the next "2". etc. Means
were calculated for each proposal on the basis of meaningful responses.
Household members in all seven cities feel that more frequent service would be
one of the more effective ways of encouraging use of public transportation.
Household members in New York would also include faster travel, lower fares
and cleaner newer vehicles. Household members in Philadelphia and Dayton
are similiar to those in New York in also considering faster travel and lower
fares as being effective. Household members in Phoenix, Houston, Denver
and Los Angeles feel that more conveniently located stops and stations is an
effective way of encouraging use of public transportation. With the exception
of Phoenix, household members in these cities would also include faster
travel as an effective proposal.
It is interesting to note the sirmliarity between the most effective proposals for
encouraging use of public transportation (faster travel, more frequent service
and more conveniently located stops and stations) and the reasons for traveling
by auto (faster, more flexible and more available).
A-23
-------
Husbands in These Cities:
Gave This Mean Rating to New Phila-
These Ways of Encouraging York delphia
Use of Public Transportation: *
Cleaner /newer vehicles 3. £
Faster travel 3. 2
5 4.8
3.8
Air conditioned vehicles 5.2 5.7
More frequent service 3. C
Lower fares 3. c.
) 3.0
) 3.6
Day-
ton
4.8
3.6
6.5
2.8
4.2
Parking facilities at stops
and stations 5.8 4.6 4.7
Shelters against bad weather 6.2 6.3 5.7
Better security for
personal safety 5.3 5.1 5.8
More conveniently located
stops/stations 4.9 5.2 4.3
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (132) (153) (84)
*The higher the number, the less effective the propo
Wives i
Gave This Mean Rating to New Phila-
These Ways of Encouraging York delphia
Use of Public Transportation^*
Cleaner /newer vehicles 3.6
Faster travel 3. "
> 4.4
' 4.6
Air conditioned vehicles 5.2 5.8
More frequent service 3. ]
Lower fares 3. 1
3.2
' 3.6
Parking facilities at stops
and stations 6.4 5.5
Shelters against bad weather 5.9 5.5
Better security for
personal safety 4.4 4.3
More conveniently located
stops/stations 5.2 5.0
Day-
ton
5. 0
4.2
6.4
2.5
3.9
5.2
5.6
5.5
4.0
Phoe-
nix
6.1
4. 1
5.4
2.0
4.0
5.3
6.2
6.2
3.0
(148)
sal.
n These
Phoe-
nix
5.8
4.6
5.3
2.3
4.0
5.3
5.5
6.1
2.9
Hous-
ton
5.8
3.5
5.5
2.8
4.5
4.9
5.3
6.3
3.5
(146)
Cities:
Hous-
ton
5.8
4.4
5.5
3.0
4.2
5. 5
4.6
5.4
3.7
Den- Los
ver Angeles
6.5
3. 5
6.9
2. 5
4.6
4. 5
5.5
6.4
3. 0
(178)
6.0
3.4
6.2
|2.4
4. 3
4.6
5.6
6.3
3. 3
(161)
Den- Los
ver Angeles
6.3
4.0
6.5
2.5
4.6
4.9
5. 0
6.1
3.3
5. 7
3.7
5.6
2.5
3.9
5.0
5.6
5.9
3.5
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives) . (163) (174) (96) (175) (I6i;
*The higher the number, the Less effecive the proposal.
A-24
(202) (188)
-------
Gave This Mean Rating To
These Ways of Encouraging
Use of Public Transportation:
Cleaner/newer vehicles
Faster travel
Air conditioned vehicles
Children Over 16 Years Old In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Angeles
5.2 5.0 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.8
3.2
5. 0
4.0 3.7 4.3 4.0 3.4
4.6 5.7 5. 2 4.6 5.0 7. 1
More frequent service
JLower fares
Parking facilities at
stops and stations
3.0
3,5
3.0
2.7
1.9
2. 3
1.7
3.4
2.3
4. 1
3. 1
3.7
2. 2
3.9
6. 0 6. 2 5. 4 6.6 6. 1 5. 4 5. 0
Shelters against bad
weather
Better security for
personal safety
More conveniently
located stops /
stations
5.6 5. 1 5. 3 6. 1 4. 7 5.4 6. 7
4.6 4. 1 5.8 6.3 6. 7 6. 1 5. 5
6.4 6.0 5. 0 3.2 3.6 3. 7 3. 2
(Total Number of
Eligible Children)
(56) (59) (35) (63) (63) (68) (68)
The higher the number the less effective the proposal.
A-25
-------
DISPOSAL OF AUTOS OWNED
Respondents were asked if they would dispose of any of the cars they owned
i'~. better public transportation were available. Respondents in Denver and
Los Angeles are more likely to dispose of a car or cars than respondents in
any of the other cities. New York respondents are least likely to dispose of
any cars. However, respondents in New York own fewer cars (1.2) than
those in Denver and Los Angeles (1. 8). In all cities the mean number of
cars that would be disposed of is about 1. 0.
When Asked If They Would
Dispose of Any of Their
Cars If Belter Public
Transportation Were
Available Said:
Yes
Maybe
No
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
New Phila- Day- Phoe- Hous- Den- Los
York delphia ton nix ton ver Ange les
10
10
15
21 17 13 19
11
23
15
16
80 75 74 72 73 66 69
Mean Number of Cars
Owned
1.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8
Mean Number of Cars
Disposed
1.0 1.0 1.0 i.i i.o 1.1 1.0
(Total Number of
Respondents)
;i64) (178) (99) (178) (163) (204) (193)
A-26
-------
QUESTIONNAIRE
CM
CONSUMER MAIL PANELS
P\
323 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET CHICAGO. ILLINOIS 60606
U-C796)
Dear Panel Member,
Today, I am sending you a questionnaire which I consider both exciting and
interesting. Hopefully, you will too. This qxiestionnaire deals with the impor-
tant problem of air pollution caused by automobiles.
As you know, autos are a major source of air pollution—especially in metro-
politan areas. You probably have read in newspapers or magazines that auto
manufacturers are being required to make changes in their cars that will
reduce the amount of pollutants coming out of cars. This will be particularly
true for cars manufactured in 1975 and thereafter.
Many pollution experts believe, however, that despite these new federal regu-
lations on auto air pollution, other ways will have to be found to further reduce
pollution caused by cars. The purpose of this questionnaire is to obtain your
reaction to these new auto pollution control ideas being suggested by the
experts. In answering some questions, you will probably have to consult
other members of your family to get their ideas and reactions. I am sorry
if this is inconvenient, but I am sure you will agree that the importance of
solving pollution problems is worth making every reasonable effort.
As always, please check each of your answers after you have completed the
questionnaire. Then return it to me in the enclosed postage-paid envelope.
If you have any additional comments, please write them on the lines pro-
vided in Question 11.
Cordially,
A-27
-------
CONSUMER MAIL PANELS
(2-C7%)
AUTO AIR POLLUTION QUESTIONNAIRE
2.
3a.
3b.
3c.
4a.
4b.
4c.
All autos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emmision control devices to reducu air
pollution. IS in 1975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you feel about a law re-
quiring you to put emission control equipment which might cost $200 on your car? ("X" BELOW)
How would you feel about this law if the coat was reduced by government subsidy to about $50?
("X" BELOW)
1. Cost $200 2. Cost $50
Feeling Toward Law;
Very much in favor of law
Somewhat in favor of law .
Somewhat .igainst law . . .
Very much against law . .
| |2
(17)
LJ2
D3
34
(18)
Even cars properly equipped with emmision control equipment might still pollute the air if the equip-
ment was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection of
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in
favor of law
Dl
Somewhat in r
favor of law
Somewhaf r
against law
V>ry much r
against law
Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, what would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
13
1-1-16
O pe "\
Assuming you had to have your car inspected al least once a year,
should be made^ ("X" ONE ONLY)
where do you think the inspecuu;i
At state-operated inspection centers . |~|l
At city-operated inspection centers* . [~~]2
At some ottter place (Specify):
At local service stations or garages . [_\ J — — — ^^
Even if all autos were equipped with properly maintained 1
emission control systems, some cities might still have auto 1 v
air pollution problems due to the large number of cars 1 £
either on the streets at the same time or concentrated in I —
m ^«
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways I n
to re-duct.- pollution under one or both of these conditions. I u
Please tell me how you feel about each of these proposals. 1 ,
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE) I £
Proposal: / 1
c. Very high ($500) registration fee per auto but only . — .
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts D'
e. A tax on all day parking in central business districts . . P] 1
f. A tax on parking in central business districts regardless _
of whether a person parked only one hour or all day "— '
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways Q)i
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways
i. Restrictions on non-essential auto travel during times
of high pollution by issuance of special license P)l
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool , — .
only" lanes on major expressways and streets . ...
Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable?
Which would be inost unacceptable? .„._.
To
/
/
J
1 v K
j c 5; jp
iZ-Zl
I2 S' ° /
/ " ^ /
/ <:
i 1
H3
1 — 1 J
r~i3
1 1 J
D3
D3
p-.
•
D3
D3
D3
D3
Letter:)
Letter:)
Plan Is
/
/
/ ra S
f -? *
*a.
W°| I
I
ri4
i i^
H4
1 J^
1 — I"
D4
D4
ri4
1 IT
D-i
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1 1^
D5
D5
19
n
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
31
32
34
-------
Page Z
(2-C796)
(Z-C796)
Page 3
3=
rv>
vo
QUESTIONS 5-8 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELAT'VG TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM. IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a, How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Ov«?r 16 Year* Old)
One or two times a week Q?
Never Q5
5b. Please rate each household member's reason for using public tra
important reason "1", the next most important "2", the next "3"
never uses public transportation. "X" the "never use" box at the
a» in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5c_)
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Reasons: Husband Wife Years Old)
a. Cheaper (38) (39) (40)
b. Faster (44) (45) (46)
c. More comfortable (50) (51) (52)
d. Safer for passenger. . . . (56) (57) (58)
e. Less congested (62) (63) (64)
f. More available (68) (69) (70)
g. More flexible (I can come
and go as I please) . . . (15) (16) (17)
b. More relaxing (able to
read while traveling). . (21) (22) (23)
j. I do not have a driver's
k. Car is not available when
I need it (30) (31) (32)
1. Other [Specify):
(33) (34) (35)
m. Never use ("X" Box) ... Ql QZ D' <39)
5d. Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate
below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of
Items: Husband V
. .Qi . ..Qi
..DZ . ..az
..G3(36| •• -03(37,
;:DS i-D* •
. .Q6 - . -D&
naportation. (Rate the most
etc. If a household member
bottom of the list.)
5c. Auto Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Hunband Wife Years Old)
. . - (4D (42) (43)
. . - (47) (48) (49)
- . . (53) (54) (55)
... (59, (60) <")(74_78
. . . (65) (66) (67) open)
. . . (71) (72) (73)79ED>0
Cd. Z
. . . (18) (19) (20) r>u^
1-14
(Not Applicable)
(Not Applicable) - -
. (Not Applicable) - -
(36) (37)
(38)
. . . DI Qz D3 «o)
in order of effectiveness which items
public transporation. (Rate the most
tc.,
Children
file (Over 16 Years Old)
Cleaner and newer vehicles (4.1) _^__ (42) (43)
Shelters against bad weather at stops
Better security to assure personal
More conveniently located stop*
Other (Specify):
(68)
(48) (49)
(51) (52)
(54, (55)
(60, (61)
(63, (64)
(66) (67)
(71-78 open,
(69) (70) 79p]znBO
6a. How would you or other household member a feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested [^}.
Somewhat interested. . . . r~.Z
Not at all interested . . . .Q3
Already in car pool Ql
Do not travel to and from ,—,
work by car
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organise one amongst your friend*, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult [Ijl
Very difficult Q2
Somewhat difficult Q3
Somewhat easy Q4
Very easy D*
Extremely easy ,—^
Already in cor pool . . . .Q?
One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and stop-and-go traffic was reduced. Lifted below are
several Ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Picas* tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
R-
i.
j.
Prohibit parking, loading and unloading on busy streets
Increase the number of one-way streets
Establish reversible lanes on busy streets to be used
Prohibit turns at busy intersections during rush hours .
Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or overpasses . . .
Lmnrove timino of traffic sicnals
Increase the number and frequency of radio traffic re-
Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool
DI
LJi
DI
DI
r— j.
rni
DI
DI
DI
02
LJz
Oz
DZ
ri2
ri2
nz
DZ
Dz
03
LJ3
03
O3
n j
[— \\
D3
Q3
D3
D3
D«
L>
O«
O«
D*
ru
n«
Q4
D*
Your Ideas (Please List):
DI Dz O3 D«
r>up.
1.14
19
20
Zl
IZ
23
24
25
26
Since traffic congestion is mos! severe at times when people are going to or corning from work.
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit st 2:00 PM. others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM. etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in lavor Ql
Somewhat in favor C]2
Indifferent D3
Somewhat opposed Q4
Very much opposed Q5
(PLEASE CONTINUE ON THE NEXT PACE)
-------
Page 4
(2-C796)
9a. Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER _9a)
9b. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER 9b BELOW)
9c. For each car, please estimate what percentage of last year's mileage was accounted for by
driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, business trips,
short weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 9c_)
9b. 9c.
9a. Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Model Year Mileage Outside Local Area
Car #1
Car #2
Car #3
Car H
9d.
9e.
How many licensed drivers are there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers: _
If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
I C S I I 1 I - »» _ ,,,»»»._ mv-i »«.» v ™ £
Maybe
No . D3
9f. How many? (WRITE IN)
cars
7
lOa.
lOb.
Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lOa BELOW)
Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lOb BELOW)
lOa. City
lOb. Nationwide
Very serious problem
Serious problem
Slightly serious problem ....
No problem at all
Di
D2
D3
(44)
Dl
Dz
D3
(45)
11.
D4 D4
If you have any views or comments regarding any question or idea, please record them:
(46-78 open)
Thank you for your help. Please check your answers and then return the questionnaire to me in the
enclosed postage-paid envelope.
A-30
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