Environmental Outlook 1975-2000
I * " *_
Federal Region III
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Environmental Outlook 1975-2000
Federal Region HI
Laura R. Jones
Marcia L. Wilson
Thomas F. Wolfinger
W. David McGarry
August 1980
MTR-80W218
Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No.: 68-01-5064
The MITRE Corporation
Metrek Division
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, Virginia 22102
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ABSTRACT
The information in this document was presented by the EPA Assistant Administrator for
Research and Development (ORD) as a briefing to senior staff in Region III headquarters (Phila-
delphia, PA) on June 23, 1980. The briefing opened a day of discussion between ORD and Region
HI on the environmental outlook for the region. Topics of concern included hazardous wastes,
chemical deposition, and energy. The agenda of the meeting at which the briefing was given is
included in Appendix C.
This briefing is organized in two major sections: pollutant emission trends and emerging
environmental issues. Each new subject is introduced by a pair of slides. The supporting text
is divided into highlights, caveats and detail.
iii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many Individuals contributed to the preparation of this document. Special acknowledgment
is due to Beth Borko, Steve McBrien, Kris Barrett, Brant Smith and Bob Atkins of The MITRE
Corporation and John Reuss, Al Humphreys, David Bennett, Charles Oakley, and Marjorie Russell of
the Environmental Protection Agency.
iv
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
BRIEFING OUTLINE 3
EPA'S LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS 5
AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL 13
AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - REGION III 23
POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL 27
POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS - REGION III 37
TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL - REGION III 43
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT 49
PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS 55
TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION 59
OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SPILLS 63
CHEMICAL DEPOSITION 75
ACID PRECIPITATION - REGION III 79
AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS - REGION III 83
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE TECHNOLOGIES - REGION III 87
REGION III SUMMARY 91
APPENDIX A - BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS A_j
APPENDIX B - METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES B-l
APPENDIX C - REGION III ORD SENIOR STAFF MEETING AGENDA C-l
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ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1975-2000
FEDERAL REGION HI
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The Environmental Outlook
Region
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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BRIEFING OUTLINE
Purpose:
Background:
Coverage:
To identify potentially significant environmental problems which could develop
in Region III between now and 2000.
Based primarily on the Office of Research and Development's (ORD) Environ-
mental Outlook 1980 report prepared by the Office of Strategic Assessment and
Special Studies.
Pollutant emissions projections were made by the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) model and other sources. All projections presented
should be treated as approximations based on assumptions.
Air and water pollutants and solid waste generation are discussed with special
emphasis being given to emerging environmental issues. Plans for future Envi-
ronmental Outlook reports are also discussed.
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The Environmental Outlook
Studies Add a Long-Range
Perspective to EPA Research
Planning
EPA's Long-Range Research Planning Process
Hosomch
Committee
Strategics
Science
Advisory
Bonrd
National
Academy
ol Sciences
OSASS
Environmental
Outlook
Report
Anticipatory
Research
Findings
Research
Outlook
Research
Committees
Budget
Planning
Process
Grants/
Cooperative
Agreements
Contracts
Interagency
Agreements
In-house
Laboratory
Work
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EPA's LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS
HIGHLIGHTS
EPA's long-range research and development planning program was established to support the
Agency's regulatory mission and prepare it to deal with future environmental problems.
The Office of Exploratory Research is responsible for providing information about environ-
mental trends for use in R&D planning. The Environmental Outlook reports are a key input.
Research committees are responsible for developing R&D strategies in 13 subject areas.
These strategies have a major role in EPA's budget process, and thus must reflect a reason-
ably accurate idea"of what the future holds, given existing trends.
In developing information about environmental futures, OER must consider the forces of
change in our society, including population and economic growth, technology, public policy
and social attitudes, and latent problems. These forces of change underlie the trends in
pollutant discharges and overall environmental quality presented in this document.
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THE ORD RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS
DETAIL
The Office of Exploratory Research (OER) is responsible for providing information concern-
ing environmental futures to the R&D planning process. This input consists of iSnt laying de-
fining and assessing future environmental trends and problems and conducting exploratory re-
search to meet basic knowledge needs concerning future problems. Within OER, the Off lS of
Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) has primary responsibility for the former and
shares responsibility for the latter with the Office of Research Grants and Centers.
Specifically, OSASS is responsible for producing reports which:
Provide a reasonably comprehensive, integrated overview of the longer-term regional
national and global environmental outlook. b^-"naj.,
**** baSSS and increase ^"standing of potentially significant future
* thf e^iromen?al'fuetu«?S> ^^ "* envlronmental controls «* P°"ei.. as they affect
Collectively, these reports are intended to:
* Provide a description of alternative future trends and contingencies and an analysis of
Consequences' inclu«*i8 their public health, public welfare and policy
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ORD Research Committees are formed around the following subjects:
- Mobile source air pollution - Drinking water
- Oxidants - Solid waste
- Gaseous and inhalable particulate - Chemical testing and assessment
pollutants - Pesticides
- Hazardous air pollutants - Nonionizing radiation
- Water quality - Energy
- Industrial wastewater
- Municipal wastewater, spill
prevention and ocean disposal
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DRIVING FORCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
DETAIL
Population and Economic Growth - The U. S. population will increase by perhaps 45 million
persons by the year 2000, each of whom will consume resources, and demand a pleasant and
safe personal environment. During the same period, economic activity will expand, with at-
tendant potential for generation of air, water and solid waste pollution. Maintaining envi-
ronmental quality in the face of such growth - at affordable cost to society - is a major
challenge for the next 20 years.
Changing Technology - Various factors dictate changes in technology. In particular, in-
creasing energy costs are stimulating technological changes in the automobile fleet,' in
industrial processes, and in our daily living and recreational activities. Changing pollu-
tion control approaches also will affect environmental quality. We are steadily improving
our ability to detect and cope with an expanding list of environmental threats. The in-
creasing cost of pollution control is expected to stimulate technology change in the direc-
tion of new methods that produce less potentially polluting waste. (The Environmental
Outlook 1981 section on hazardous wastes examines the potential for process changes in cer-
tain segments of the organic chemicals industry that could be instituted in response to
increasing hazardous waste disposal costs.)
Public Policy and Social Attitudes - Strong public support will be needed to sustain the
national effort to maintain environmental quality. In future years, public support could be
threatened by the costs of environmental protection, constraints on energy policy choices
and increased government regulation of the private sector. Public policy decisions on en-
ergy will have a great impact on future environmental quality. Widespread conversion of
electric utilities and industrial boilers to coal may affect public health and the mainte-
nance of certain ecosystems. Among potential problems associated with this conversion are
increased ambient concentrations of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates
radionuclides, toxic trace metals and organic compounds.
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Latent Problems - The quality of our environment in future years will also be affected by
unforeseen developments - some of which we may be creating today. Latent problems are ex-
emplified by the relatively recent realization that hazardous wastes have been dumped with-
out proper safeguards. We have also become aware of acid precipitation, atmospheric de-
position of toxic substances, and C02 build-up in the atmosphere. Undoubtedly, there are
problems we do not yet recognize.
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Air Pollutant Trends
Water Pollutant Trends
Solid Waste Generation Trends
Selected Special Topics for Region
Threats to Human Health
Toxic Substances
Hazardous Wastes and Spills
Threats to Ecosystems
Chemical Deposition
Environmental Policy Dilemmas
Energy Policy Trade-Ofls
Alternative Technologies
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Fraction of
1975 Net 7.7
3.0
2.0
National Trends in Major
Air Pollutant Emissions
Abatad
Net £ missions
Other
Tfansporlatton
IndMStftal Combustion
Electric Utilities
Constf uctiort Mtletlils
Regional Perspective
Air Pollutant Emission Trends
NO Increases- Particulars Decrease -
Coal Combustion-^ SO,. NO. increase- ConslrucHon Industry
Coal Combustion -i
SO, NO,
Co.it Cornhusfion
Pe
»al Combustion v. , t /1
ttotcum Refining >>^ . 1 i
Notihwpsi \ ^
SO( Decreases
Conliols on Sulfuuc
Acid Plants
SO, Increases-
Conversion to Coal .
SO,. Participates
:»ease
NO. Increases-
Ulililies
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AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - NATIONAL & REGIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS
NATIONAL Significant increases in net emissions would occur only for NO*. This
increase is due to growth in electric power generation and industrial com-
bustion. Emissions of other air pollutants are expected to remain relatively
constant or decline between 1975 and 2000.
Particulates: Major source is the construction materials industry. Net emis-
sions projected to decrease slightly as a result of compliance by utilities with
SIP standards.
SOX: Major source is coal use by utilities and boilers, which doubles between
1975 and 2000. Net SO^^ emissions, however, are projected to remain relatively
constant as a result of application of desulfurization techniques.
HC and CO: Major source is transportation. Net emissions projected to decline
significantly as a result of compliance with regulations.
Increases in NOX emissions
REGIONAL Regional trends are similar to national trends.
are projected to occur in all regions.
Pollutant emissions are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Southeast, Great
Lakes, and South Central U.S. (Regions IV, V and VI).
CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS
Air pollutant data are most complete and current for energy technologies, fuel
combustion and conventional industrial processes. »
Scenario assumes no control on stationary sources of NOX; since health impacts
of exposure are of increasing concern to EPA, this may not be a safe assumption
for the future.
NOX generation projections are adjusted to reflect emissions with no mobile
source controls; net NOx emissions reflect beneficial impact of mobile source
controls.
It is assumed (except in the case of California) that all states will meet
Federal mobile source standards. (Region-specific transportation control stan-
dards not incorporated.)
Future Environmental Outlook, reports will be directed In part to Research Com-
mittee concerns and may include such topics as nobile source air pollution,
oxidants, hazardous air pollutants and gaseous and inhalable particulates.
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NATIONAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
DETAIL
Particulates
Sulfur
Oxides
Between 1975 and 2000, total generation of particulates is projected to more
than double*
If full compliance with existing air emission regulations were achieved parti-
culate emissions would decrease one-third between 1975 and 1985. Compliance
with emissions limits established in State Implementation Plans is assumed by
1982. Compliance with these limits should have a beneficial impact, especially
in the near term. After 1985, emissions would increase gradually through 2000
to 85 percent of 1975 levels, due to economic growth and Increasing fossil fuel
combustion.
Despite increases in total coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial
boilers, particulate emissions from coal combustion are expected to decline if
standards are met.
The construction materials industry (which includes glass, cement, sand and
gravel, and similar sources) is the major source of particulate emissions
accounting for approximately 40 percent of total net emissions in 1975. This
is the only industrial source for which particulate emissions in 2000 are pro-
jected to exceed 1975 levels. p
Assuming process changes in the steel industry, including conversion to basic
oxygen and electric arc furnaces, particulate emissions from the steel industry
are projected to decrease more sharply than emissions from other industries
The generation of SOX is expected to double between 1975 and 2000.
Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers, which in 1975 ac-
counted for two-thirds of SOX releases, is expected to more than double be-
tween 1975 and 2000. However, SO* releases are expected to remain fairly
constant from 1975 to 2000 as a result of desulfurization techniques?
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Nitrogen
Oxides
Sulfur oxide releases fron the copper smelting industry, the third largest
SOX source, are expected to decline sharply between 1975 and 1985 through use
of control measures (e.g., single and double contact sulfuric acid plants and
sulfite-bisulfite stack gas scrubbers). Between 1985 and 2000, emissions are
expected to increase slightly because of higher copper production.
Electric power generation and motor vehicle transportation are each expected to
account for about one-third of the NOx generation between 1975 and 2000.
Growth in fuel use for industrial combustion is projected under high economic
growth assumptions to increase net NOX emissions from that source three-fold
between 1975 and 2000.
Net emissions of NOX from mobile sources are projected to decline between
1975 and 2000, even though transportation activity increases. This decline is
attributed to transportation emission controls.
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbon emissions, which contribute to the formation of oxidants, are a
significant air quality problem. In 1975, over^three-fourths of the urban
counties in the United States failed to conply with primary ambient air quality
standards for photochemical oxidants.
'Automobile and truck transportation accounted for over one-half the HC emis-
sions in 1975, and surface coatings and petroleum refining accounted for an
additional one-fourth.
Hydrocarbon releases are expected to decline substantially between 1975 and
1985, then to remain relatively constant from 1985 to 2000. These trends
reflect projected reductions in emissions from transportation sources resulting
from compliance with present mobile source abatement requirements.
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* The petroleum industry Is the only major source of HC emissions that is
projected to generate more pollutants in 2000 than in 1975.
Because emission standards are more stringent for automobiles than for trucks,
reductions in HC emission levels are projected to be greater in the more
urbanized eastern half of the country, where the ratio of automobile to truck
travel is the highest.
Carbon Although less than 10 percent of global atmospheric CO results from human
Monoxide activity, as much as 98 percent of CO in urban areas results from human
sources, especially automobile travel.
Current air quality standards regulate CO emissions.
Pollution control devices, engine design improvements, and the use of mass
transit alternatives to personal auto travel are expected to reduce auto
emissions of CO more than two-thirds from 1975 to 2000. Truck emissions of CO,
which are less strictly regulated, are expected to decline by only one-third
between 1975 and 2000.
Carbon monoxide emissions from all sources are expected to be cut in half from
1975 to 2000 under high economic growth primarily because of reduced transpor-
tation emissions.
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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
DETAIL
Region I
Region II
Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to Increase slightly,
while emissions of CO and HC are expected to decline significantly between 1975
and 2000.
Net emissions of SQ^ are projected to increase'by about 20 percent between
1975 and 2000, because of greater use of coal by electric utilities. This is
partly due to assumed compliance with the fuel substitution requirements
enacted under the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974.
(ESECA has expired, but legislated coal coversion is continuing under the 1978
Fuel Use Act.)
Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por-
tion of the United States, total NOX generation and net emissions would still
continue to increase in this region. NOX emissions are expected to increase
more slowly than the national average of 140 percent.
Emissions of particulates, SOX, NOX and HC in 2000 are projected to be
lower in Region I than In any other region. Emissions were low in 1975 and
little growth is expected during the projection period. Region I has lower
population and economic activity levels than most other regions.
Emissions of all air pollutants are projected to remain constant or decrease
between 1975 and 2000.
emissions are expected to remain constant in Region II, in contrast to
the trend in most other regions.
Air pollutant emissions are projected to be low in 2000 in Region II compared
to other regions.
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Region III Emissions of all air pollutants except NOx are projected to decline between
1975 and 2000.
Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por-
tion of the United States, generation and emissions of NOx would increase in
this region about 25 percent, compared to a national average of 40 percent.
Projected decreases in air pollutant emissions in Region HI between 1975 and
2000 are greater than the national average.
Air pollutant emissions in Region III are projected to be higher than in most
other regions in 2000.
Region IV
Region V
Emissions of all air pollutants, except HOX, are projected to decline between
1975 and 2000. Despite projected declines, Region IV is expected to receive
high loadings of air pollutants in 2000.
NOX emissions are projected to increase at a rate comparable to the national
average. Region IV is expected to receive the second highest regional
emissions of NOX in 2000.
The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to increase
local CO emissions in parts of Region IV, however, total CO emissions in the
region would decrease 45 percent*
Emissions of all air pollutants except NOX are projected to decline between
1975 and 2000. Despite reductions, Region V is projected to receive the
highest regional emissions of SOX, HC and CO in 2000. Emissions of
particulates and NC^ are projected to be the second highest regionally in
2UUO
The projected increase in NOX emissions in Region V is much less than that
projected for the nation as a whole.
Large reductions in particulate emissions are expected as a result of compli-
ance with standards and slow economic growth.
18
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S0x releases are projected to decline by 30 percent between 1975 and 1985 due
to compliance by utilities.
Increased CO emissions from the steel industry will be evident in this region,
due to a greater utilization of basic oxygen furnaces (in place of open hearth
furnaces).
Region VI Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between
1975 and 2000, while emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline.
Particulate emissions are expected to increase,substantially because of growth
in aluminum production and widespread substitution of low-Btu coal for other
fuels.
SOX releases in this region are projected to triple between 1975 and 2000
because of rapid increases in use of coal by electric utilities and industrial
combustors.
NOX emissions are projected to increase more rapidly than the national aver-
age. In 2000, Region VI is expected to receive the highest regional
discharges.
The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to increase
its local CO emissions in this region.
» Region VI is expected to receive some of the highest loadings of air pollutants
of any region in 2000.
Region VII Greater use of coal by electric utilities and other industrial sources would
lead to increased emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000.
Emissions of other air pollutants are projected to decline.
Air pollutant emissions in Region VII are projected to be moderate in 2000,
compared to other regions.
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Region VIII Emissions of participates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between
1975 and 2000. Compared to other regions, emissions of these pollutants would
be moderate in Region VIII. Emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline
during the forecast period. Emissions of these two pollutants would be
comparatively low in 2000.
NOX emissions are projected to Increase more rapidly than the national aver-
age as a result of increased industrial and electric utility combustion of
coal.
Although net HC emissions are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000 in
all regions, the decrease is expected to be slower in Region VIII because of
increases in emissions from industrial sources, most notably petroleum refining
and storage.
Region IX * Emissions of particulates and NOX are projected to increase slightly between
1975 and 2000, while emissions of other air pollutants decline.
The projected decline of SOX emissions in this region would result primarily
from implementation of single and double contact sulfurlc acid plants and other
SOX control methods. Region IX is one of three regions in which SOX
releases are projected to decline significantly between 1975 and 2000.
Farticulate emissions in Region IX do not follow the national trend of
significant decreases between 1975 and 2000.
Air pollutant emissions in Region IX are projected to be moderate in 2000,
compared to other regions.
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Region X Emissions of all air pollutants except HC and CO are projected to increase
between 1975 and 2000. However, air pollutant emissions in Region X are
expected to be low in 2000, compared to other regions.
Emissions of particulates increase due to releases from the construction
materials industry.
Increases in the level of oil refining and utility combustion of coal lead to
increases in emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000.
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Trends in Air Pollutant Emissions
Region III
Fraction ol
1975 Net
10.9
n
Abated
N«l Emissions
Other
TitnsporUMoit
Induttrlal Combustion
El»ctdC Utilitie i
Construction Materials
Region III Summary
Air Pollutants
Major Sources 1975-2000 are
Utilities. Transportation, Construction
Materials.
NOX Increases Coal-Fired
Utilities and Industrial Combustion.
j
Particulates Decrease Sharply Due A
to Slow Economic Growth,
Compliance by Utilities.
SO,, HC, CO Decrease.
t
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TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
The only air pollutant projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 in this region is NO*.
This increase is due to growth in energy use with the major source being coal combustion.
All other air pollutant emissions are expected to decline.
Particulates Major source is construction materials industry. Also electric utilities.
Major sources are electric utilities and industrial combustion.
Major sources are coal combustion and transportation.
HC and CO Major source is'transportation.
CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS
The scenario considered here assumes virtually no control on stationary NOX sources. The
latest NSPS standards for electric utilities are not incorporated in these projections.
Therefore, these projections may not accurately reflect the regulatory picture in 2000.
All states are assumed to meet Federal mobile source emission standards in this scenario.
However, individual state transportation control plans (TCPs) may differ from this norm
(region-specific TCP standards have not been incorporated into the projections).
The actual air quality impacts of the emission trends identified here are highly dependent on
patterns of long-range pollutant transport that are not currently accounted for in SEAS.
System development is underway to achieve this capability.
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TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
REGION III
DETAIL
Particulates
Between 1975 and 2000, total generation of particulates is projected to
increase by more than 50 percent.
t Much greater reductions in emissions than the national average are projected
for Region III. Net emissions would decline approximately 50 percent between
1975 and 2000. The magnitude of this reduction reflects projected slow
regional economic growth and imposition of pollution controls.
* The construction materials industry (which includes glass, cement, sand, gravel
and similar sources) is the major source of particulate emissions, accounting
for over 30 percent of total net emissions in 1975, and over 45 percent in
2000. Electric utilities are also a source of particulate emissions in this
region, accounting for almost 30 percent of total net emissions in 1975, and
almost 20 percent in 2000.
Sulfur * The total generation of SOX is expected to almost double between 1975 and
Oxides 2000.
Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers, which in 1975
accounted for 60 percent of SOX generation, is expected to more than double
between 1975 and 2000. However, SOX releases are expected to remain fairly
constant from 1975 to 2000 as a result of desulfurization techniques.
Nitrogen
Oxides
Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por-
tion of the United States, generation and emissions of NOX would increase in
this region (although more slowly than the national average) due to growth in
energy use. The major sources of NOX emissions are coal-fired utilities and
transportation.
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Growth in fuel use for industrial combustion is projected under high economic
growth assumptions to more than double net NOX emissions from that source
between 1975 and 2000.
Net emissions from mobile sources are projected to decline between 1975 and
2000, even though transportation activity increases, because of transportation
emission controls.
Hydrocarbons The total generation of HC and CO are expected to decline by approximately 10
and Carbon percent each, between 1975 and 2000.
Monoxide
Net emissions are projected to decrease 40 to 50 percent; about the sane rate
as the national average. This reduction is due to compliance with mobile
source emission factors. The major source of these emissions is auto and truck
transportation.
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National Trends in Point-Source
Water Pollutant Discharges
96.8
Chimlcilt
Elociric Utilities
PetrolaurnR«1lnlng A Storage
Pulp
Municipal Sawioa
1975 2000
fllochomlcal
Oxygen Demand
Suspended
Solids
197S 2000
Phosphorus
1975 2000
Oil A Grease
Regional Perspective
Point Source Water Pollutant Discharge Trends
Dissolved Solids Increase
Utilities. Oil and Grease
IncreasesAlaskan Oil -
Dissolved Solids Increase
uiliiiios, Chemicals,
Nutrients Increase-
Municipal Sewage
Dissolved Solids Increase
uillllles. Chemicals -
Dissolved Solids
Increase-
Energy Producllo
Dissolved Solids
UUIIIIes. Chemicals
Dissolved Solids
IncreaseUtilities
Dissolved Solids
increaseChemicals
26
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POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS
With the exception of dissolved solids, discharges of all point-source water
pollutants are projected to remain relatively constant or decrease between 1975
and 2000.
BOD: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities.
Suspended Solids: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities.
NATIONAL Discharges from bauxite refining and pulp and paper industry decrease
dramatically despite major projected growth in these industries.
Dissolved Solids: Major source is coal-fired and nuclear-fueled electric
utilities. The organic chemicals industry is an important source in 2000.
Nitrogen and Phosphorus: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facili-
ties. Treatment improvements are not sufficient to counteract population growth.
Oil and Grease: The petroleum and organic chemicals industries are major
sources.
Regional trends are similar to national trends. Large increases in dissolved
solids are expected in all regions as a result of increased electric power
REGIONAL generation capacity.
Discharges of all pollutants are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Middle
Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes and South Central U.S. (Regions III, IV, V, and
VI).
CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS
The results presented represent point-source discharges by industrial and
municipal sources; although most major polluting industries have been included,
recent changes in industrial composition may not be reflected.
The dissolved solids estimate does not Include discharges from municipal waste-
water treatment facilities.
The imposition of BAT standards on industrial effluents is assumed to lag two
years behind the 1983 deadline set in the 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control
Act (FWPCA).
If compliance schedules change or if final BCT limitations deviate from esti-
mated BAT standards, projections would differ.
Projections do not include non-point source discharges. Water pollution from
non-point sources is estimated to greatly exceed the discharges from point
sources.
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NATIONAL TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
DETAIL
Biochemical
Oxygen
Demand
The total generation of BOD by point sources is projected to increase about 65
percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth.
Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease by about 30 percent between
1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus-
trial and municipal point sources.
Hunicipal sewage treatment plants are the major point source of BOD, accounting
for about 50 percent of net discharges in 1975. By 2000, this proportion is
expected to increase to 85 percent. BOD removal requirements for municipal
facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those imposed on industry.
The pulp and paper industry is projected to be the major industrial source of
BOD in 1975 and 2000. A process shift and improvement in removal efficiencies
expected during the projection period should decrease BOD loadings from the
pulp and paper industry.
The proportion of total generation of BOD accounted for by municipal wastewater
treatment plants decreases between 1975 and 2000. But the proportion of net
discharges attributable to municipal facilities is expected to increase over
the period because removal requirements for municipal facilities are assumed to
be less stringent than those Imposed on Industry.
Suspended The total generation of suspended solids by point sources is projected to
Solids triple between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth.
Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent
limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources.
28
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The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of
suspended solids throughout the projection period. However, virtually all is
abated.
The largest discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal waste-
water treatment plants, the aluminum, and pulp and paper industries. Together
these sources accounted for about 65 percent of total discharges. By 2000,
these industries are expected to achieve a high level of pollutant control,
reducing discharges to very low levels. Municipal treatment plants are
projected to achieve a lower level of control than-industry by 2000, and are
expected to account for about three-fourths of net discharges in that year.
Dissolved The generation of dissolved solids by point sources is expected to double
Solids between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions.
* Net discharges are also expected to double over the projection period; little
abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated.
Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no
national effluent guidelines. Control of dissolved solids typically occurs
coincidentally in the control of other pollutants.
* .
Electric utilities are the largest sources of dissolved solids discharges
throughout the projection period. In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
utilities are expected to account for about 60 percent of all dissolved solids
discharges.
An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemical industry.
The organic chemicals industry accounts for about 15 percent of total dis-
charges throughout the projection period. The inorganic chemicals industry is
the largest generator of dissolved solids; however, much of this is abated in
the control of other pollutants.
29
-------
Coal mining and preparation is a large energy-related source of dissolved
solidsi
Nitrogen
The generation of nitrogen compounds by point sources is expected to increase
by about one-third between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth assump-
tions.
Net discharges are expected to increase slightly during this period. Removal
of other pollutants by industrial and municipal sources is expected to remove
some nitrogen from wastewaters coincidentally. Nitrogen effluent limitations
imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited receiving
waters also decrease discharges. These two factors, coincidental removal and
nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of economic growth.
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to be the major point source
of nitrogen throughout the projection period. Net discharge trends follow
total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is not assumed to
be adopted on a widespread basis. More sophisticated treatment requiring chem-
ical or additional biological processes is needed to remove significant quanti-
ties of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters.
The meat processing industry was a major industrial nitrogen discharger in
1975. However, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to considerably
reduce the relative importance of this industry over the projection period.
Phosphorus The generation of phosphorus compounds by point sources is projected to
increase slightly and net discharges to decline slightly under high economic
growth conditions between 1975 and 2000. The decline in net discharges is
attributable to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial
and municipal sources.
30
-------
Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of
phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and
95 percent in 2000. Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite in-
creases in municipal waste loads. The reduction in net discharges is attrib-
utable to two factors: the coincidental removal of phosphorus in secondary
treatment and the lower phosphate concentrations in sewage.
Nationally, industry is not a major source of phosphorus.
and The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of organic compounds.
Grease It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen
demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches.
The generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to increase about
60 percent between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions. Net
discharges are expected to decline about 30 percent during this period.
The meat processing industry is expected to generate the most oil and grease
throughout the 1975 and 2000 period, but the major net discharger is expected
to be the petroleum industry. Oil and grease compounds discharged by this
industry are potentially more harmful than natural oil and grease from meat
processing.
31
-------
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS
DETAIL
Region I Discharges of BOD, suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oil and grease
are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000. Dissolved solids discharges
would double due primarily to increases in generation capacity by nuclear
facilities.
Discharges of point-source water pollutants are projected to be low in 2000 in
Region I compared to other regions.
Region II Dissolved solids discharges are projected to nearly double due to increased
nuclear generation capacity, and chemical production.
Discharges of nutrients also increase slightly, whereas in most regions
nutrients decline. The Increase may be a result of the Federal Construction
Grants Program. Large amounts of nutrients in wastewaters from homes that were
previously unsewered would be treated by municipal facilities under this program.
Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de--
crease by 2000.
Point-source water pollutant discharges are projected to be moderate in Region
II in 2000 compared to other regions.
Region III An expected near doubling in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed to
increased electricity generation and coal mining activities.
« Discharges of other water pollutants would decrease or remain constant between
1975 and 2000. Projected reductions in biochemical oxygen demand and suspended
solids discharges are not as large as the national average. Reductions in
nutrient and oil and grease discharges are comparable or better than the national
average, however.
32
-------
Point-source discharges of BOD, suspended and dissolved solids and oil and
grease would be high in 2000 in Region III compared to other regions.
Discharges of nutrients would be moderate.
Region IV Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than double due to increased
electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities. The highest
regional dissolved solids discharges in 2000 are expected to occur in Region IV.
The Southeast is also projected to receive the highest regional nitrogen and
phosphorus discharges in 2000. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities are
the largest point source of nutrients.
Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de-
cline by 2000. Discharges of these pollutants will nevertheless be compara-
tively high in Region IV.
Region V Discharges in 2000 are lower than discharges in 1975 for most pollutants. Sus-
pended solids and oil and grease discharges decline dramatically. Only dis-
solved solids discharges are projected to increase due to coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
utilities.
Despite projected declines, Region V is projected* to have the highest regional
BOD and suspended solids discharges in 2000. Discharges of dissolved solids and
nitrogen are projected to be the second highest, regionally in 2000.
RegionVI Discharges of dissolved solids would more than double between 1975 and 2000 due
to increased production of chemicals coupled with only marginal improvements in
wastewater treatment for dissolved solids.
Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are expected to remain
relatively constant or decline over the projection period.
33
-------
Region VI is projected to receive the highest regional oil and grease loadings
in 2000. The primary source of these loadings is the petroleum industry.
Nutrient loadings would also be high compared to other regions.
Region VII Discharges of all pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to remain re-
latively constant or decrease between 1975 and 2000. Suspended solids and oil
and grease discharges are expected to be the lowest, regionally, in 2000.
Discharges of other water pollutants would also be low.
Region VIII
Discharges of dissolved solids are expected to nearly double between 1975 and
2000 due to energy production activities such as coal mining and electricity
generation. Nitrogen discharges would also increase.
BOD, suspended solids, phosphorus, and oil and grease discharges are projected
to decrease. Region VIII would receive comparatively low loadings of water
pollutants from point sources in 2000. Loadings were also low in 1975.
Region IX Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than triple over the projection
period due to increased generation capacity and chemicals production. Nitrogen
discharges would also increase.
BOD, suspended solids and phosphorus discharges are expected to decline during
the forecast period.
Compared to other regions, Region IX would receive moderate discharges of
water pollutants from point sources in 2000.
34
-------
Region X Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than quadruple between 1975 and
2000 due to increased electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
utilities. However, Region X would still have the lowest regional discharges of
dissolved solids in 2000.
Discharges of nutrients are also expected to be the lowest of all regions in 2000.
Region X is expected to experience the most notable increases in discharges of
oil and grease (450 percent) due to development of Alaskan oil. By 2000, dis-
charges of this pollutant would be moderate compared to other regions.
35
-------
Trends in Point-Source Water Pollutant Discharges
Region III
Fractional
1975 Net
112.3
4.0-
36.9
Net Dltchcrgo
Olhei
Polroleum Relmlng i Stong*
Coal Mining 1 Prop.r.lion
^ Electric Utilities
Pulp and Paper
Municipal Sewtge
1975 2000
Biochemical
Oxygen Demand
Solids
1975 2000
Phosphorous
1975 2000
Ollt Grease
Region III Summary
Water Pollutants
Major Sources 1975-2000 are
Municipal Treatment Facilities
and Energy-Related Activities.
Dissolved Solids Increase
Coal Mining and Preparation,
Coal-Fueled Electric Utilities.
BOD, Suspended Solids, Nitrogen,
Phosphorus and Oil and Grease Decrease.
t
36
-------
TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
Discharges of all point-source water pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to
decrease. A projected near doubling in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed to
increased electric power generation and coal mining and preparation activities.
* BOD
Suspended
Solids
Dissolved
Solids
Nitrogen and
Phosphorus
Oil and
Grease
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source. Compliance with
effluent guidelines by the pulp and paper industry decreases its contribution
from about 15 percent in 1975 to 5 percent in 2000.
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source. The steel and
pulp and paper industries are large contributors in 1975; however their
contribution to the total in 2000 is insignificant.
Major source is energy production - coal raining and preparation and
utilities.
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major source.
Petroleum refining and storage is the major source. The steel industry is
a large discharger in 1975, however its contribution drops to almost zero by
2000.
CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS
The data presented represent point-source discharges of water pollutants from industrial and
municipal sources; although most major polluting industries have been included, recent changes
in industrial composition may not be reflected. The vast majority of Region III is expected
to be served by advanced municipal treatment plants by 2000 (U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 1976 Needs Survey: Cost Estimates for Construction of Publicly Owned Wastewater
Treatment Facilities. Washington, D.C., 1977).
Trends in dissolved solid releases depend on assumptions of utility growth in Region III and
on the inclusion of cooling tower blowdown as a point-source discharge.
37
-------
TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
REGION III
DETAIL
Biochemical
Oxygen
Demand
The total generation of BOD by point sources in Region III is projected to
Increase about 50 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic
growth.
Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease by about 30 percent between
1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus-
trial and municipal point sources.
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major point source of BOD, ac-
counting for about 70 percent of net discharges in 1975. By 2000, this propor-
tion is expected to increase to 85 percent. BOD removal requirements for
municipal facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those imposed on
industry.
The pulp and paper industry is projected to be the major industrial source of
BOD between 1975 and 2000. A process shift and Improvement in removal effi-
ciencies expected during this time period should decrease BOD loadings from
industry.
Suspended
Solids
The total generation of suspended solids by point sources in Region III is
projected to triple between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic
growth.
Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent
limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources.
38
-------
The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of
suspended solids throughout the projection period. However, virtually all is
abated.
The largest net discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal
wastewater treatment plants, the steel industry, and the pulp and paper indus-
try. Together these sources accounted for about 70 percent of net discharges.
By 2000, the industries are expected to achieve a high level of pollutant con-
trol, reducing discharges to very low levels. Municipal treatment plants are
projected to achieve a lower level of control than industry by 2000, and are
expected to account for about three-fourths of total discharges in that year.
Dissolved The total generation of dissolved solids by point sources in Region III is
Solids expected to double between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions.
Net discharges are also expected to double over the projection period. Little
abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated.
Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no ef-
fluent guidelines. Some control of dissolved solids typically occurs
coincidentally in the control of other pollutants.
Electric utilities are the largest sources of dissolved solids discharges
throughout the projection period. In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
utilities are expected to account for about 50 percent of all dissolved solids
discharges.
Coal mining and preparation is another large energy-related source of dissolved
solids in Region III.
An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemicals industry
which accounts for about 10 percent of net discharges throughout the projection
period.
39
-------
Nitrogen The total generation of nitrogen compounds is expected to increase slightly between
1975 and 2000 under high economic growth.
Net discharges are expected to decrease slightly during this period. Removal
of other pollutants from wastewater by industrial and municipal sources is
expected to remove some nitrogen coincidentally. Nitrogen effluent limitations
imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited receiving
waters also decreases discharges. These two factors, coincidental removal and
nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of economic growth.
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to be the major point-
source discharger of nitrogen throughout the projection period. Net discharge
trends follow total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is
not assumed to be adopted on a widespread basis. More sophisticated treatment
requiring chemical or additional biological processes is needed to remove sig-
nificant quantities of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters.
The steel Industry was a major industrial nitrogen discharger in 1975. How-
ever, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to considerably reduce the
relative importance of this industry over the projection period.
Phosphorus The total generation of phosphorus compounds is projected to increase slightly
and net discharges to decline slightly under high economic growth conditions
between 1975 and 2000. The decline in net discharges is attributable to com-
pliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal
sources.
Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of
phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and
95 percent in 2000. Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite increas-
es in municipal waste loads. The reduction in net discharges is attributable
to two factors: the coincidental removal of phosphorus in secondary treatment
and the lower phosphate concentrations in sewage.
40
-------
Oil and The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of organic compounds.
Grease It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen
demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches.
The total generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to increase
about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions.
Net discharges are expected to decline about 40 percent during this period.
Petroleum refining and storage is the major discharger of oil and grease,
accounting for about 40 percent of discharges in 1975 and 80 percent in 2000.
Major industrial sources of oil and grease in 1975 are the steel and meat pro-
ducts processing industries. By 2000, the contribution of these industries to
total discharges is small.
Population in Region III is expected to grow from about 24 million in 1975 to
about 28 million in 2000, an increase of only 16 percent.
Municipal
Wastewater
Treatment
Over 60 percent of the population was served by municipal wastewater treatment
plants in 1975; most was secondary and advanced treatment.
By 2000, almost 90 percent of the population in Region III is expected be be
served by municipal treatment plants. Nearly all of the plants will be second-
ary or advanced. Over half of the population is expected to be served by ter-
tiary plants.
41
-------
Trends in Solid Waste Generation from Pollution Control
Region III
Olher
Sliel
Atphlll
Cemant
Coil Fired Ulilllles
1975 2000 1975 2000
Noncombustible Industrial
Solid Waste Sludge
1975 2000
Municipal
Sewage Sludge
Region III Summary
Solid Waste from Pollution Control
Major Source ot NCSW and Industrial
Sludge in 2000 Is Coal-Fired Utilities.
Sewage Sludge Generated by
Municipal Facilities.
NCSW, Industrial Sludge and Municipal
Sewage Sludge increase.
t
42
-------
TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
The solid waste generated through abatement of air and water pollutants is expected to
increase between 1975 and 2000 in Region III.
* Coal combustion and municipal sewage treatment are the major sources of solid waste.
Generation of noncombustible solid waste and municipal sewage sludge is projected to nearly
double between 1975 and 2000.
Generation of industrial sludge is projected to increase eleven-fold between 1975 and 2000.
Some of the solid wastes generated, particularly those included as industrial sludge, may be
classified under the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) as hazardous wastes.
CAVEATS
Projections are limited to solid wastes generated by removal of -air and water pollutants.
Projections are based on dry tons.
Industrial sludge projection does not include solid wastes from industrial wastewater
treatment.
All SOX scrubbers are nonregenerable.
43
-------
NATIONAL PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION
(106 Tons Per Year)
Type of Waste
Industrial
Municipal
Mining
Secondary*
Silvicultural
Animal
Demolition
'"'Secondary solid wastes are solid wastes
**1990 Estimate
Source: Environmental Protection Agency,
1975
14
138
2,300
95
169
2,000
90
from pollution control
Environmental Outlook 1980,
2000
20
220
5,800 - 7,300
350
276
2,700
150**
EPA 600/8-80-003,
Washington, B.C., December 1979 (Draft).
44
-------
TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL
REGION III
DETAIL
Noncombustible
Solid
Waste
Annual generation of noncombustible solid waste in Region III is expected
to nearly double between 1975 and 2000. This growth rate is lower than the
national growth rate.
The major source of noncombustible solid waste is coal-fired electric util-
ities. By 2000, new and converted utilities account for 60 percent of gen-
eration.
The construction materials industry is the major non-energy contributor to
noncombustible solid waste generation, accounting for 15 percent of the
total in 1975 and 2000.
Industrial
Sludge
Annual industrial sludge generation in Region III is expected to increase
more than 10-fold between 1975 and 2000. This growth rate is comparable to
the national rate.
In 1975, the major sources were the asphalt and steel industries. In 2000,
the major source is expected to be new coal-fired utilities (combustion re-
siduals and secondary sludges from pollution control devices).
Municipal
Sewage Sludge
As a result of projected population growth and improved treatment, municipal
sewage sludge generation is expected to increase by about 50 percent over
the 1975 level by 2000, a growth rate nearly matching that of the nation.
Captured particulates and bottom ash from combustion processes and captured dust from numer-
ous production activities.
45
-------
Air Pollutant Trends
Water Pollutant Trends
Solid Waste Generation Trends
Selected Special Topics for Region
Threats to Human Health
Toxic Substances
Hazardous Wastes and Spills
Threats to Ecosystems
Chemical Deposition
Environmental Policy Dilemmas
Energy Policy Trade-Offs
Alternative Technologies
47
-------
Toxic Substances
Exposure can occur through everyday activities
Effects can be acute or remain latent for decades
48
-------
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
HIGHLIGHTS
INTRODUCTION
This series of slides presents: evidence of widespread exposure to toxics; trends in pro-
duction of some toxic chemicals; trends in hazardous wastes generation; and a brief
description of OSD efforts In the area of emergency spill control.
Exposure to toxic substances is a frequent occurrence to which no one is immune.
The principal hazard to most people appears to be from chronic exposures, the effects
resulting from prolonged or repeated exposures to chemical agents in the environment. Some
occupational situations or accidents result in acute toxic effects, which may lead to
impairment of bodily function or death.
49
-------
Pesticides in Mothers' Milk
Mid-1970's
Compound
DOE
DOT
Dleldrln
Heptachlor epoxlde
OxycMordane
jS-BHC
PCBs
Number
Poslllve
(Percent)
100
99
81
64
63
87
30b
Mean of
Positive
fug/kg fa«>«
3.521
529
164
91
96
163
2.076
Maximum
(ug/kg lal)
214,167
34,369
123.000
2,050
5,700
9,217
12,600
M.Sp«rc«nl-n
rtlsleontinl.
iMe PCBKIW pwwil > 1,100 ufl p«r Hlogr«n ol M:
1.0Mwom«n).
SOUK*: A(U»l»d Irom Am.1, O.K., "W.i<(llylngEn.tronm.nl^Cr..mle«U
Cuilng Mulilloiw and CHieer*," SOfaem. Vol. KM, 1IN. pp. WJ-SM.
Chlorinated Hydrocarbon Residues In Human Fat8
Mid-1970's
Compound
PCB
Hexachlorobenzene
BHC(Llndane)
Oxyehlordane
Trans-flonachlor
Heptachlor epoxlde
Dleldrln
p.p'-DOE
o,p'-DOT
p,p'-TDE
p,p'-DDT
Amount*
lug/kg Wai Weigh!)
907
62
65
55
65
43
69
2,095
31
6
439
Percentage of Samples
Containing Residues
100
100
88
97
99
100
100
100
63
26
100
Avingi oliu CiMdlin SimpKi: Mo»l tie cwclnogmi .
Sourer Mlpted Irom Ainet. B.N.. "ktonlllylng EndronnwRtd Ch«mk«U
Culling Mulilloni «ixl Cineert," SeOnce. Vol. KM. tin. p. M7
50
-------
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
HIGHLIGHTS
Benzene, a known carcinogen, is found in many household items including denatured alcohol,
carburetor cleaner, rubber cement for patch kits, and arts and craft supplies.
Individuals living near roads and highways may face up to nine times the normal risk of de-
veloping cancer due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted by automobiles.
2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), an acknowledged toxicant, is a common contaminant
in certain widely-used pesticides; e.g., 2,4,5-T and Silvex. This chemical has been shown to
be toxic at exposure levels as low as 500 parts per trillion (monkeys) and carcinogenic at
exposure levels as low as 5 parts per trillion (rats).
In general, environmentally-related cancers do not become evident for 15 to 40 years after
exposure. However, the latency period can be as short as 2 years or as long as 50 years.
Increases in smoking have been reflected in increases in the incidence of lung cancer 20 to
25 years later.
The left-hand table shows that significant amounts of many toxic substances, some of which
are carcinogens, have been found in human milk. The right-hand table shows that residues of
toxics have also been found in human body fat. A high percentage of samples contain
detectable residues of toxic substances.
51
-------
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
DETAIL
Exposure Pathways
Exposure to toxic substances is a commonplace occurrence. Toxic substances are present in:
- air
- water
- food
- materials
Individuals come in contact with toxics in many places:
- work
- home
- recreation
The Hudson River is contaminated with numerous toxic substances including PCBs, benzene,
xylene, cyclohexane, tetrahydrofuran, toluene and chloroform. These substances pose a health
threat to the 150,000 people in upstate New York who drink treated river water, and are harm-
ful to aquatic life.
52
-------
Effects of Exposure
* Toxic effects may remain latent for decades or can be instantly obvious.
A study conducted by Reznik et al., attempts to establish a link between a research chemist's
exposure to BIS (chloromethyl) ether and his death twelve years later from a pulmonary
adenocarcinoma (Reznik, G., et al. "Lung Cancer Following Exposure to BIS (chloromethyl)
ether: A Case Report." J. Environ. Pathol. Toxicol. (1), 1, 105-111, 1978.
Toxic substances and human exposure is addressed in three different ways:
- toxic chemicals production
- hazardous waste
- oil and hazardous .substances spills
53
-------
Selected Trends in
Chemical Production
1968-2000
Mlllloni
olToni
Chlo|'n»/ BTXA»om»«e»
it
Vinyl Chloride
Elhylem Olchlorlde
Benzene
2.0
Acrylonltrlle
Year 1970 19751978 1985
Historical I Projected
2000
Chemical Production in Region I
industry
1972 SIC Code
286S
2869
28694X
2879
2692
2812
2813
2816
2819
Name
Cyclic Crudes and
Intermediates
Industrial Organic
Chemicals NEC*
Technical Pesticides
(Production and Formulation)
Explosives
Alkaline* and Chlorine
Industrial Oases
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Inorganic
Chemicals NEC*
Percent of National
Total In Region
IS
5
7
23
7
23
28
J
NEC = Not Elsewhere Classified.
54
-------
PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS
HIGHLIGHTS
Production and use of chemicals has increased dramatically since 1950. Aggregated chemical
industry production figures may indicate potential exposure to toxics in the environment.
Based on industry figures for six selected toxic chemicals, production of toxics has shown
strong growth in the past and is expected to continue this pattern. Vinyl chloride has been
the subject of considerable regulatory action. Benzene and acrylonitrile have been identi-
fied by EPA as priority pollutants.
A large portion of national production in several chemical industries Is located In Region
III: cyclic crudes and intermediates, explosives, industrial gases, and inorganic pigments.
Several products of the above industries have been classified as priority pollutants, inclu-
ding benzene, ethylene dichloride, chlorobenzene, and dinitrotoluene.
Chemical Production in Region III
-------
PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS
DETAIL
Trends in the production of six chemicals are discussed
- chlorine
- BTX aromatlcs
- ethylene dichloride
- vinyl chloride
- benzene
- acrylonitrile
These chemicals were chosen for discussion because they are major feedstocks or intermediates in
the production of toxic chemicals and are toxic themselves. These chemicals are used as
indicators of trends in the production of toxics.
Chlorine
- Annual production has increased at a rate of about 2.6 percent per year between 1968 and
1978 according to industry figures.
- This rate of growth is expected to increase to nearly 5.0 percent per year between 1978
and 2000.
- Chlorine is an essential feedstock in the production of chlorinated organic compounds,
the bulk of which are toxic and/or carcinogenic.
BTX Aromatics
- BTX aromatics (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene) are major feedstocks in the production of organic
chemicals.
- The historic growth rate of almost 5 percent per year (1968-1978) is expected to decline
to about 4 percent per year in the period 1978-2000.
56
-------
Vinyl Chloride
- Vinyl chloride is a known toxicant and carcinogen. Production of this chemical
increased at an annual rate of nearly 9 percent between 1968 and 2000.
- Production of vinyl chloride is expected to increase at a rate of over 7 percent between
1978 and 2000.
Ethylene Dichloride (1.2-dichloroethane)
- Ethylene dichloride production is expected to grow at a rate of 5 percent per year between
1978 and 2000. This growth is slower than the over 8 percent per year growth exhibited
between 1968 and 1978.
- Ethylene dichloride has been identified under Section 307 of the Clean Water Act as a
priority pollutant and is an intermediate in the production of vinyl chloride and other
chemicals.
Benzene
Annual production of benzene is expected to grow at a rate of about 4 percent per year
between 1978 and 2000, continuing the pattern set between f968 and 1978.
- Benzene, a known carcinogen, is a major chemical feedstock and has been identified in air
samples taken in and around the Love Canal dumpsite.
Acrylonitrile
- Acrylonitrile production grew at a rate of over 5 percent per year between 1968 and 1978.
Significantly slower growth is expected between 1978 and 2000.
- Acrylonitrile, also a priority pollutant, is a major chemical intermediate.
57
-------
Hazardous Wastes
Past Disposal Practices
Secure
Other Landfills
Adequate (2%)
Methods
(2%)
Other Inadequate __
Methods
Controlled
Incineration
(6%)
Uncontrolled Incineration
(10%)
Non-Secure
Landfills
(30%)
Unllned Surface
Impoundments
(48%)
\ Inadequate Method
'Adequate Method
National Trends in Hazardous Waste Generation
Fraction ol
1975 Total
2.5
Industries (SIC Code)
Other
2.0
Paper and Allied Products (26)
Primary Metals (33)
Machinery (except Electrical) (35)
Chemicals and Allied Products (28)
1965
1970
1975
1985
2000
58
-------
TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION
HIGHLIGHTS
Disposal
Future
Generation
Inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes has caused air, water and land con-
tamination and severe health problems. According to individual industry studies
performed by EPA between 1975 and 1978, only about 10 percent of hazardous
wastes have been disposed of properly in the past.
Final regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to
control hazardous wastes are currently being promulgated. The cost to industry
of implementing the regulations has been estimated by 1C PA at about $510 million
annually.
Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and
2000.
The chemicals and allied products industry is expected to be the major industry
generating hazardous wastes throughout the projection period.
Hazardous Waste Site Enforcement and Response System
- Immediate EPA response to the hazardous waste site problem.
~ Regional records of all reported sites, whether known to present a hazard or
not. Of 5,540 sites logged through April 30, 1980, 521 sites are located in
Region III.
- Supported by $10 million in site investigation contracts and $1 million in
sample analysis contracts.
CAVEATS
These projections do not include hazardous wastes from households, hospitals, coal-fired
utilities, or industrial wastewater treatment.
e projections presented here are based on 1975 hazardous waste generation estimates. Pro-
jections for other years were made using earnings projections for each Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) code and the 1975 base estimates. Detail of methodology is presented in
Appendix B.
The projections for future years do not take into account any changes in production processes
or recycling that may arise because of the RCRA regulations. Such effects are the subject of
.1 chapter of Environmental Outlook 1981. in preparation.
59
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TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION
DETAIL
Trends
Annual national hazardous waste generation is estimated to have increased 30 percent between
1965 and 1975. This is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of nearly 3 percent.
Most of this growth occurred between 1965 and 1970.
Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to more than double in the period 1975 to 2000.
This is an expected annual growth rate of about 3.5 percent. The growth in annual generation
is expected to be much faster in the period 1985-2000 than in the period 1975-1985.
Annual generation of hazardous wastes in Region III is expected to nearly double between 1975
and 2000, at a rate comparable to the national average.
Sources
The chemicals and allied products industry is estimated to be the major source of hazardous
wastes in all projection years.
Three other industries, machinery, primary metals, and paper and allied products, are also
estimated to be significant sources in all years, according to these estimates.
In Region III, the two major generating industries in 1975 were the chemicals and allied
products industry (about 5 million wet tons) and the primary metals industry (about 1 mil-
lion wet tons). These two industries are expected to remain the major generating indus-
tries throughout the projection period.
60
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Inadequate Disposal
According to estimates from EPA industry studies, about 90 percent of hazardous wastes have
been disposed of inadequately, despite the fact that numerous techniques exist to reduce the
volume of hazardous wastes and/or insure their safe disposal. Among these are:
- secure landfills
- controlled incineration
- controlled deep well injection
- biological/chemical treatment
- waste exchanges/resource recovery
Hazardous wastes disposed of inadequately in the past are a critical problem now. There may
be a considerable time delay between the disposal of a hazardous waste and its impact on
human health and the environment.
Location
As of April 30, 1980, EPA has entered a total of 5,540 sites into the Hazardous Waste Site
Tracking System. Of these, 1,044 have been inspected, 120 tentative dispositions made, and
19 suits filed. The States have filed an additional 46 suits. EPA and the State of
California have jointly filed a suit against Hooker Chemical Company concerning Hooker's
Lathrop, California site.
Some 521 sites in Region III have been entered into the tracking "system.
Future Disposal
Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) provides for the identi-
fication of hazardous wastes, institution of a system to track wastes through their life cy-
cle, and establishment of a permit system. Final regulations are being promulgated now.
The cost of RCRA to industry has been estimated by EPA to be $510 million annually.
*EPA filed 2 additional suits between 5/1/80 and 5/16/80.
61
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ORD Emergency Spill Response Program
Objectives
Demonstrate Spill
Control Technologies and
Techniques
Identify Safe Ultimate
Disposal Methods
Program Areas
Prevention
Notification and Response
Control and Removal
Ultimate Disposal
Fate and Effects
Restoration
62
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OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS
HIGHLIGHTS
Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the U.S.
Between October 1977 and September 1979 over 450 hazardous materials spills were reported to
the Region III office.
Current estimates for Region III:
- 1500 oil and hazardous materials spills per year
400 hazardous substances spills per year
Fifteen significant spills occurred in Region III between 1979 and 1980 (to date) including:
Pittston, Pennsylvania
Sharptown, Maryland
NOTE: The determination that a spill is significant is made at EPA Headquarters based on the
quantity of the spill, extent of property damage, potential for human health impairment,
and the extent of response required.
The photograph that introduces this discussion is of clean-up operations at the Pittston, PA.
spill.
The major objectives of the EPA Emergency Spill Response Program are:
1) to demonstrate technology and techniques for protecting the water, land and air from
accidental releases, and
2) to identify environmentally sound methods for the disposal of contaminated wastes
associated with cleanup operations.
These objectives are being pursued in six areas of emergency spill research and development:
prevention
notification and response
control and removal
ultimate disposal
fate and effects
restoration
63
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OIL AND HAZARDOUS 11ATERIAL SPILLS
DETAIL
Spills of oil and hazardous substances occur as a result of
- accidents
- equipment malfunction
- human error
- deliberate discharge
Results of spills
- extensive property damage
- personal injury or death from fire and explosion
- potential chronic effects, like birth defects or cancer, from exposure to toxic substances
- contamination of water supplies
- destruction of food supplies
- contamination of recreational areas
* Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the United States.
Over 3000 hazardous materials incidents were reported to EPA regional offices between October
1977 and September 1979* Host of these incidents were spills of oil or hazardous substances.
Materials spilled ranged from PCB to alcohol; quantities ranged from less than one pint to
millions of gallons.
In the October 1977 to September 1979 period, over 450 spills were reported to the Region III
office.
Region III estimates that about 1500 oil spills and about 400 hazardous substances spills
occur annually within its boundaries.
Fifteen significant spills in Region III were reported to EPA in 1979 and 1980 (to date)
including:
- a 500,000 gallon per month hazardous materials spill in Pittston, PA.
- a 170,000 gallon potential spill of PCB contaminated oil at Sharptown, MD.
64
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SIGNIFICANT SPILLS IN REGION III REPORTED TO BPA
1979 - 1980 (to date)
LOCATION DATE
Big Run, PA 2/13/79
Chester County, PA 2/26/79
Philadelphia, PA 2/26/79
Norfolk, VA 2/26/79
Gettysburg, PA 3/22/79
Philadelphia, PA 5/29V79
Collegeville, PA 7/23/79
*Pittstcm, PA 7/28/79
Pitcalrn, PA 9/11/79
Pitcairn, PA 9/14/79
Sharptown, MD 9/20/79
Quantico, VA 12/15/79
Onancock, VA 1/23/80
Manassas, VA 3/6/80
Frederickaburg, VA 3/6/80
INCIDENT
Train Derailment
Damaged Tank Car
Pipeline Rupture
Damaged Vessel
Truck Accident
Runoff-Abandoned warehouse
Pipe Rupture
Chemical Dump Mine Shafts
Vandalized Pipeline
Vandalized Pipeline
Potential Discharge
Pipeline Rupture
Storage Tank Leak
Pipeline Rupture
Pipeline Rupture
MATERIAL/VOLUME
Nitrating acid/20,000 gal.
Hydrochloric acid/500 gal.
NR2 diesel fuel/40,000 gal.
MOCAP pesticide/unknown
Phosphorus/3 drums
PCBs in 400 gal. transformer oil
Trtchloroethylene/1600 gals.
Mixture of cutting oil aroraattcs, substituted
phenols, alkyl resins, dichlorobenzene, and
dloctyphthalate/500,000 gal. per month
Diesel fuel/30,000 gal.
Diesel fuel/30,000 gal.
Waste oil contaminated with PCBs, xylene, benzene,
and other substances/170,000 gal.
NR2 oil/85,000 gal.
NR2 oil/52,000 gal.
Kerosene/340,000 gal.
NR2 oil/60,000 gal.
Summary of this spill provided.
65
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SPILL SUMMARY
ON
PITTSTON, PENNSYLVANIA
Background
On July 30, 1979, the State of Pennsylvania requested that EPA conduct an on-site assessment
of an abandoned mine shaft, from which an unknown discharge was entering a tributary of the
Susquehanna River. An investigation revealed that 25 miles of the river was covered with sheen,
bank to bank.
The Regional Response Team (RRT) was activated and private contractors were hired to deal
with containment and cleanup.
Originally, at the Butler Tunnel approximately 500-1000 gallons per day of oily sludge were
being discharged along with the following: cutting oil, aromatics, substituted phenols,
alkyl resins, dioctylphthalate and short and branched chain hydrocarbons.
Very low levels of dichlorobenzene were detected downstream in the Dunville Water Supply.
State personnel had observed out-of-state trucks dumping into the mine bore hole leading to
Butler Tunnel on a daily basis. Enforcement action is being taken against Highway Auto
Service.
The EPA Mobile Laboratory from Edison, New Jersey, responded on-scene on August 6, 1979, and
assumed the major work load of analyzing samples.
Continuous air monitoring was conducted, especially at the Butler Tunnel, due to the poten-
tial hazard from flammable/explosive vapor concentration.
Booms were placed in strategic locations; at the Butler Tunnel discharge point more than
14,000 gallons of oil/chemical mixture were collected as of August 7th. In 1979, about
100,000 gallons of pollutants entered the Susquehanna River. Of this amount, about 60,000
gallons were contained. EPA suspects there are a minimum of 500,000 gallons of pollutants
within Butler Tunnel.
66
-------
Present Situation
Butler Tunnel discharges have increased to more than 13 ragd of water/oil/chemical mixture
during spring runoff.
Pennsylvania State, Deep Mine Safety, and EPA Region III Technical Assistance Teara are super-
vising drilling of boreholes to determine location of chemical pools. So far, borehole dril-
ling has revealed no hydrogen cyanide.
State Water Quality Personnel have assumed the role of cleanup monitoring, formerly held by
contractor*
EPA Environmental Response Team is coordinating evaluation of treatment options for Butler
Tunnel discharge.
Criminal charges have "been brought against two corporations and eleven individuals in con-
nection with the alleged dumping of hazardous wastes*
Costs
Section 311(k) costs presently exceed $1 million. An estimated $10 million may be required
for total remedy.
Prepared by Alan Humphrey, Oil and Special Materials Control Division, U.S. EPA.
67
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In addition to these incidents, potentially dangerous situations exist at:
- Bruin Lagoon (AH&RS Coal Co.), Inc. Bruin Boro, Butler County, PA.
- Metal Bank of America, Philadelphia, PA.
- Wade (ABM) Disposal Site, Chester, PA.
- DRACUP Warehouse, Youngsville, PA.
A previous spill at the Bruin Lagoon site (1968) killed 4 million fish, affected numerous
water supplies and caused foaming 200 miles downstream.
68
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ORD EMERGENCY SPILL RESPONSE PROGRAM
DETAIL
Prevention
Determine causes of past spills and feasibility and cost effectiveness of spill prevention.
- develop safety technology and protocols for impoundment areas, plants, loading sites and
storage facilities.
- coordinate effort with DOT to improve transportation safety and reduce accidents.
Develop spill prevention techniques and equipment
- level gages
- transfer lines
- couplings
- seals
- revised oil spill prevention regulations
Improve current surveillance and analysis capabilities
- supports all areas of spill response
- assists in contingency planning
- assists in analysis of final restoration
The above R&D is directed at providing the program offices with technical information for
promulgating guidelines for establishing a "standard of care."
69
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Notification and Response
Protection of response personnel
Spill Identification and detection
Impact prediction
- air
- surface and groundwater
- land
First Priority: Continued development of personal protective equipment and safety devices
for spill response personnel
Equal Priority: Preparation of emergency action manual - situation assessment
- identification and detection
- confinement
- control of air pollution
Longer term areas
- computer modeling of spill plume movement
- development and demonstration of field kits and flowthrough spill alarm systems
Control and Removal
Develop and demonstrate control and cleanup equipment and guidelines for acceptable cleanup
operations.
- focus on simple equipment which is rapidly deployable for temporary containment
70
-------
Develop and demonstrate technologies for on-site purification, recovery, and separation of
removed substances from treatment agents and inert materials
- directly enhances cost effectiveness of cleanup.
- decreases dangers of transport of spill material
Develop guidelines and techniques for shoreline protection and restoration
Develop and demonstrate techniques for the control of volatile substances (particularly air
pollution control).
- preparation of emergency manuals
- supplement currently available manuals
Operation of the Oil and Hazardous Materials Simulated Environmental Test Tank (OHMSETT)
- test equipment and techniques
- currently testing chemical and biological control agents
Ultimate Disposal
* Develop or adopt technology for disposing of all non-reuseable contaminated waste and site
debris
Program geared to developing novel procedures for
- converting refractory organics to C02, water, salts, etc.
- immobilizing toxic constituents
- sophisticated degfadative application of microorganisms and nutrients
Fate and Effects
o Determine ecological effects of acute discharges of hazardous substances
71
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Restoration
Assist in providing guidelines for assessing the extent of and remedying the damage of a
hazardous spill without major disruptions of the surrounding ecosystems.
Develop and field test experimental techniques and equipment designed to accelerate recovery
of spill damaged waters and soils through microbial degradation.
Emergency SpillEquipment Developed By ORD
Mobile Physical/Chemical Treatment System
Cyclic Colorimeter
Hazardous Materials Detection Kit
Organo-phosphate Pesticide Detection and Warning System
Foam Dike System
Dynamic Inclined Plane Skimming System
Acoustic Emission Earth Dam Spill Alert Device
Mobile Chemical Laboratory
Spill Assessment Laboratory
Safety/Decontamination/Office Trailer
Mobile Stream Diversion System
Mobile Froth Flotation System
Pump/Collection Bag System
Gelling Agent System
Spill Alarm System
Enviro-pod Aerial Monitoring and Surveillance
Water Jet Boom System
72
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Key Accomplishments
Development of standard laboratory testing procedures which will provide information on the
environmental behavior of chemicals.
Development of a mobile system for the high pressure injection of neutralizing chemicals into
soil. This system is an alternative to excavating large volumes of contaminated soil that
would require further treatment or disposal.
i
Publication of "Hazardous Materials Spill Monitoring Safety Handbook and Chemical Hazard
Guide," a document which describes safety precautions, first aid, and hazards from 665
chemicals.
Studies of five indirect acting carcinogens which may be useful in characterizing exposure
and risk from Individual carcinogenic substances.
73
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Chemical Deposition
Pollutants we release into the atmosphere
eventually return to the earththreatening
the balance of natural systems
Acid precipitation
Toxic metals, neutralizing agents, other pollutants
Interactions after deposition
Formation and Deposition of Acidic
Organic and Toxic Components
Agricultural Land
Man
Drinking Water
-------
CHEMICAL DEPOSITION
HIGHLIGHTS
Precipitation acidity apparently results from combustion-produced gases S02 and NOX being
oxidized to H2S04 and HN03, respectively, in the atmosphere. The acids produced are
then deposited, wet and dry, on land and water.
At present, sulfur and nitrogen are major contributors to the chemical deposition problem.
Nationally, sulfur emissions are expected to level off throughout the 1980s, while nitrogen
emissions continue to increase. Nitrogen compounds should thus become more important in
total contribution to the chemical deposition problem.
Other substances deposited in precipitation may include toxic metals and organic compounds,
neutralizing compounds and radioactive particles. This aspect of chemical deposition is
receiving further attention as part of Environmental Outlook 1981.
Acid deposition has had substantial adverse effects on the environment, including acidifica-
tion of lakes, rivers, and streams, with measurable damage to aquatic ecosystems.
No existing U.S. environmental regulations directly address the acid precipitation problem;
however, a criteria document on particulates and sulfur oxides is currently being updated by
EPA's Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office.
The goal of EPA's Atmospheric Acid Deposition Program is to develop an understanding of the
mechanisms and effects of acid deposition. To meet this objective, EPA has outlined objec-
tives for monitoring, and for studying atmospheric processes and environmental effects.
75
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CHEMICAL DEPOSITION
DETAIL
Projections suggest Increasing acidity of precipitation over the northeastern U.S. Emissions
of sulfur oxides, the predominant contributor, are expected to level off throughout the
1980s; however, nitrogen oxides emissions continue to increase* Recent studies have shown an
increasingly important contribution from NOX.
Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are relatively enriched with several trace ele-
ments which are potentially toxic to humans. There is concern that increased use of coal for
energy production will increase atmospheric concentrations of harmful trace elements. These
trace elements may also act as catalytic agents for reactions among pollutant gases in the
air.
Organic compounds, many of which are well known pollutants, also have significant roles in
other atmospheric chemistry cycles. Organic compounds are one of the principal sources of
oxygen for oxidation of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere. The nitrogen oxide cycle and the
ozone/oxidant cycles also involve organic compounds as major sources of oxygen. The exact
chemistry of these reactions is, at present, not understood.
Several substances reduce the acidity of the atmosphere and of wet and dry chemical deposi-
tion* Some of these neutralizing substances are man-made, but for the most part neutrali-
zers arise from natural sources. Natural resources of neutralization compounds include
ammonia gases, marine aerosols and fugitive dust from naturally alkaline soil. These sub-
stances may react with acid components in the air, but their actual chemical components and
reactions need further study.
76
-------
The-goal of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program is to develop a basic understanding of
the source-receptor relationships of acid deposition and determine the cost
associated with acid deposition effects. This will enable EPA to determine the need
for and type of measures to control and/or counteract the damages from atmospheric
acid deposition.
To meet this goal, EPA is establishing objectives in areas of:
- monitoring
- atmospheric processes
- environmental effects
77
-------
Sensitivity of
Aquatic
Ecosystems
as Determined by
Bedrock Type
Highly Sensitive
Moderately Sensitive
Past Trends
I Shading indicates pH less than 4.5)
Generalized NOX, SOX Emissions Trends
>;<»: High NO,. SO, Emissions In 1975 and 200
~ Rapid Increase in NO,, SO, Emissions
between 1975 and 2000
78
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ACID PRECIPITATION
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
Sensitivity Region III contains areas which are moderately to highly sensitive to changes
in pll concentration. The nap shows the sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to
acid deposition based on bedrock type.
Trends The upper left map shows trends in the pH of precipitation in the eastern U.S.
over a 20-year period. The area receiving acid rain (pH <4.5) has enlarged,
and rainfall acidity has increased markedly. Region III receives some of the
most acidic rain in the eastern U.S.
The lower right map shows trends in emissions of acid rain precursors. Emis-
sions of SOX and MOX are projected to remain high over the next 20 years in
Region III. Trends toward lowered pH can be expected to continue in Region
III.
Emissions of SOX and 110^ are also projected to remain high in Regions IV,
V, and VI. Because of prevailing wind patterns, emissions in Regions IV, V and
VI could affect air quality in Region III.
Emissions of SOX and NOx are projected to increase significantly (more than
50 percent) in the South Central, Rocky Mountain and Pacific Northwest (Regions
VI, VIII and X). Regions VIII and X had relatively low emissions «0.6 million
tons) of these pollutants in 1975.
Several precipitation chemistry monitoring networks are active in Region HI.
These include:
- National Atmospheric Deposition Project (NADP)
- World Ileteorological Organization (WHO), the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and EPA network
- tlulti-State Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (iIAP3S)
- EPRI Eastern Regional Precipitation Chemistry Network
- Tennessee Valley Authority network
- Several local networks
Public concern is mounting about the effect of acid rain on the environment of
Region III and about Increasing emissions of acid rain precursors in bordering
regions.
79
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ACID PRECIPITATION
REGION .III
DETAIL
Sensitivity
Region III contains areas which are sensitive to acid precipitation. Parts of
Virginia, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania are indicated in the map as areas
in which the aquatic ecosystems are moderately to highly sensitive to changes
in pH. The sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems is based on bedrock type.
Trends
In 1955 and 1956, the pH of precipitation in a large portion of the eastern
U.S. was less than the atmospheric "neutral" value of 5.6, with the zone of
greatest acidity being generally where sulfur dioxide emissions are highest -
parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York and New England. By 1973,
the area with an average pH of below 4.5 had enlarged so that it Included most
of the area east of the Mississippi River.
Trends in emissions of acid rain precursors such as NOX and SOx can give an
indication of future trends in the pH of precipitation. Emissions of NO in
Region III are projected to increase 25 percent between 1975 and 2000, to 2.7
million tons. Emissions of SOX are projected to decrease slightly over this
period to 4.1 million tons. Emissions of these pollutants in Region III are
projected to be the fourth highest regionally, in 2000.
Emissions of NOX and SOX in nearby regions may influence air quality in
Region III due to prevailing wind patterns (southwest to northeast).
Regions IV, V and VI accounted for about 50 percent of the total national
emissions in 1975, and about 65 percent of the SOX emissions. Emissions of
these pollutants are expected to remain high in 2000.
80
-------
Large increases (greater than 50 percent) in NOX and SOX emissions are
projected for the 1975-2000 period in the South Central, Rocky Mountain and
Pacific Northwest (Regions VI, VIII and X). Regions VIII and X had relatively
low emissions (less than 0.6 million tons) of these pollutants in 1975.
81
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Environmental Policy Dilemmas
Future energy choices will have implications
for environmental quality
Fuel substitutions
Alternative energy sources
Friction ol
1975 Emissions
1.5
1.0-
0.5
Air Pollutant Emissions
Under Alternative Fuel Mix Assumptions
Region III
1975Emlstlon»
2000Eml»tlon» with
1975 Fuel Mil
| c | 2000Emli»lont wim
Fuel Switching
Induttry
Ullllly
197S 2000
Participates
1975 2000
Sulfur Oxides
1975 2000
Nitrogen Oxides
82
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AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL IlIX ASSUMPTIONS
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
Nationally, the fuel switching scenario assumes a substantial substitution of coal and
nuclear fuels for oil and gas by 2000. In most regions, oil and gas were the primary fuels
used by utilities and industry in 1975. However, in Region III, coal was already the primary
fuel source for utilities, and the secondary fuel source for industrial combustors. There-
fore, the fuel switching scenario is expected to have a minor effect on fuel use {and emis-
sions) in Region III.
Net emissions of particulates, SOX» and NOX in 2000 are projected to be comparable in the
fuel mix scenario and the fuel switching scenario in Region III. Emissions from electric
utilities and industrial combustors are affected by fuel mix assumptions, however they offset
each other. Under Che fuel switching scenario, air emissions frou utilities are lower than
they would be under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. However, emissions from industrial combus-
tion are higher under the fuel switching scenario, offsetting any decreases achieved by
utilities.
Much sharper contrasts in emissions between scenarios are expected in Region VI and other
areas that now depend heavily on natural gas and oil.
CAVEATS
Fuel use reflects assumed full implementation of coal conversion features of ESECA. (Note:
ESECA has expired, but legislated coal conversion is continuing under the 1978 Fuel Use Act.)
plans for phasing out gas- and oil-fired plants or adding nuclear and coal plants are
subject to change due to the changing regulatory and economic environment.
Data on pollutant release per Btu were obtained from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Assistant Secretary for the Environment, Environmental Data for Energy Technology Policy
Analysis, Draft Report, Germantown, Maryland, 1980.
Scenario assumes no control on stationary sources of NOX; since health impacts of exposure
are of increasing concern to EPA, this may not be a safe assumption for the future.
83
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AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS
REGION III
DETAIL
Net emissions of particulates, SOX and NO^ from utilities in 2000 are projected to be
higher under the 1975 fuel mix scenario than under the fuel switching scenario. The 1975
fuel mix scenario assumes heavy reliance by utilities on coal. In the fuel switching scenar-
io, proportionately less coal use and more nuclear fuel use is assumed than in the 1975 fuel
mix scenario. Nuclear fuel use generates much less particulates, SOx and NOx than does
coal combustion.
Air pollutant emissions from industrial combustion in 2000 are projected to be greater under
the fuel switching scenario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. The former scenario
assumes decreased contribution of gas by 2000, and an increase in use of coal and oil for
combustion. (In 2000, gas would be used for over 65 percent of all industrial combustion in
the 1975 fuel mix scenario, but for only 30 percent of combustion in the fuel switching
scenario.) Because coal is not as clean as gas as a fuel, emissions are projected to be
higher under a scenario that emphasizes coal use.
Net emissions of particulates in 2000 are projected to be 1 percent higher under the fuel
switching sce'nario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. Industrial emissions from oil and
coal combustion under the fuel switching scenario more than offset the increased emissions
from utilities projected under the fuel mix scenario.
-------
NOX and SOX emissions are projected to be 1 percent higher in the 1975 fuel mix scenario
than in the fuel switching scenario. Because the 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes more coal
combustion, NOX and SOX emissions will be higher.
85
-------
Trends in Net Emissions with Moderate and High
Penetration of Solar Technologies
Region III
Percentage ol
1975 Nel Emissions
150
1975 Base lino
Modeialo Soldi Sconado I 45 Quad* in ,'(.100)
HighSolarSconaHOI10Ouadsin2000l
no " " a
b
c
b
c
1975 2000 1975 2000 1975 2000
Participates Sulfur Oxides Nitrogen Oxides
86
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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE TECHNOLOGIES
REGION III
HIGHLIGHTS
Under the moderate solar scenario, penetration of solar would be slow. In 2000, solar energy
would provide only 5 percent of the nation's energy (6 quads). About 0.45 quads would be
produced in Region III. This level of solar use is comparable to that assumed under the
Environmental Outlook high economic growth scenario.
Under the high solar growth scenario, solar energy is projected to account for 11 percent of
the nation's energy in 2000 (14.2 quads). Almost 1.0 quads would be produced in Region III.
In Region III, net emissions of particulates and SOX are projected to decrease between 1975
and 2000, regardless of the amount of solar energy produced. NOX emissions would increase
regardless of the amount of solar energy produced.
Net emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX in 2000 are comparable in the moderate and
high solar growth scenarios. Even in the high solar growth scenario, solar energy is
expected to account for a small portion of total regional energy production. Net emissions
would therefore not be significantly affected.
Solar and biomass technologies used for energy generation in place of conventional tech-
nologies produced slightly greater particulate emissions, but lower SOV and NOV emis-
. * _ A. A
sions.
Reduced SOX and KOX emissions in the high solar growth scenario are a result of lower
levels of coal combustion. These decreased emissions are partially offset by increases in
emissions from the stone and clay products industry and biomass combustion. Particulate
emissions from these two sources more than offset reduced coal combustion emissions.
CAVEATS
No geothermal energy production is projected in Region III.
Hydroelectric and synthetic fuels energy production do not differ between scenarios.
87
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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE TECHNOLOGIES
REGION III
DETAIL
Air pollutant emissions In 2000 under a high solar growth scenario are projected to be com-
parable to emissions from a moderate solar growth scenario.
- SOX and NOX emissions are projected to be about 2 percent lower under the high solar
scenario than under the moderate, solar scenario.
- Farticulate emissions are projected to be approximately 5 percent greater under the high
solar scenario than under the moderate solar scenario. This is due to increased biomass
combustion, including the use of wood stoves, and increased emissions from the stone and
clay products Industry in the high scenario. Many solar and biomass components are manu-
factured using stone and clay products.
- Biomass collection, transportation and conversion may result In increased soil loss to
runoff and soil nutrient depletion.
The high solar growth scenario projects a national supply of 14.2 quads of solar energy in
2000. The moderate solar scenario projects a national supply of 6 quads of solar energy in
2000. These projections do not include hydroelectric or geothermal energy production.
- Approximately 8 percent of national solar and biomass energy would be produced in Region
III in 2000 in both the high and moderate solar scenarios.
88
-------
Production of solar energy is projected to be concentrated in the Sunbelt (Regions IV, VI and
IX) in 2000. In these regions air pollutant emissions under the moderate and high solar
growth scenarios are expected to differ more noticeably than in Region III.
89
-------
Region III Summary
Air, Water Pollutants Decrease.
Solid and Hazardous Waste Generation Increases.
Major PollutersUtilities, Transportation, Municipal Sewage
Plants, and the Chemicals Industry.
Emissions of Acid Rain Precursors (NOX, SOX) Will Remain High.
Existing Hazardous Waste Sites and Other Latent Problems
Will Demand Major EPA Attention for Years to Come
Major Industrial Zones
Region III
Major Metropolitan Areas
Chflmlc»l» and Allied Products
Primary Melals
Coil Mining
90
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REGION III SUMMARY
HIGHLIGHTS
Of the air and water pollutants projected, significant increases would occur only for NOX
and dissolved solids between 1975 and 2000. These increases are attributed to growth in use
of coal for electric power generation and industrial combustion. Control technologies for
NOX and dissolved solids are assumed to be limited.
Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to nearly double between 1975 and 2000. A
large portion of national production of certain chemicals occurs in Region III. Many of the
chemicals are toxic and are classified as priority pollutants under the Clean Water Act.
Effects of acid rain have been reported in Region III. Emissions of acid rain precursors
(NOX and SOX) are expected to remain high in Region III and in nearby regions throughout
the projection period.
While this briefing has focused on future trends in environmental emissions, long-term
impacts of past industrial practices cannot be ignored. Important industries in Region III
whose past practices will greatly influence future environmental quality include primary
metals production, chemicals production and coal mining.
Past and continuing releases of heavy metals, acids, persistent chemicals and radionuclides
from these industries are of major concern.
91
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REGION III SUMMARY
DETAIL
Emissions of NOX are projected to increase by 25 percent due to growth in electrical power
generation and industrial combustion.
Emissions of all other air pollutants are projected to remain relatively constant or decline.
Compliance by utilities and boilers with SIP, NSPS and revised NSPS standards reduces
participate and SOX emissions. Compliance by mobile sources with emissions regulations
decreases HC and CO emissions.
Discharges of dissolved solids are projected to double due to coal mining and preparation and
coal-fired electric utilities.
Discharges of all other point-source water pollutants are projected to decline due to
compliance by industrial and municipal sources with the effluent limitations guidelines of
the Federal Water Pollution Control Act.
Generation of solid waste that results from pollution control is expected to increase as
emission regulations become more stringent.
Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. Some of
this generation is likely to occur in Region III since a large portion of national production
of certain chemicals occurs in the region.
Effects of acid rain have been reported in some portions of Region III. A study by the
Pennsylvania Cooperative Fishery Research Unit indicated a reduction in number of fish
species in streams where decreased pH or decreased alkalinity, or both were noted.
Trends in emissions of acid rain precursors give an indication of future pH trends. NOX
emissions are expected to increase by 25 percent in Region III between 1975 and 2000.
emissions are expected to decline by 10 percent in the region during this time period.
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Air pollutant emissions in nearby regions may influence air quality in Region III. Emissions
of NOX and SOX are expected to remain high in Regions IV, V and VI throughout the projec-
tion period. Large increases in NOX and SQ^ are projected for Regions VI, VIII and X be-
tween 1975 and 2000.
* Incidents such as Love Canal and Butler Tunnel have shown that protecting human health and
the quality of the environment requires more than simply control of future pollutant
discharges. Past industry practices may be important contributors to future environmental
problems.
Region III has historically been a center for primary metals production, chemicals production
and coal mining. Of particular interest in Region III are:
- iron, steel, zinc, and other nonferrous metals
- fibers, industrial chemicals, and miscellaneous chemical products
- surface and underground mining
These industries are important both from the viewpoint of the quantity of production in
Region III (See Table) and the hazard associated with the industry products.
Releases of numerous toxic metals are associated with primary net-als manufacture Including
arsenic, chromium, cadmium, lead, and mercury.
Areas of concern for the primary metals industry include southeastern Pennsylvania and the
Pittsburgh area.
The chemicals industry has released quantities of various persistent compounds, many of which
are dangerous:
- nylon
- chromates
- arsenic
- organochlorine insecticides (DDT, aldrin/dieldrin)
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Areas of concern for the chemicals Industry include the Delaware and James Rivets, Kahawha
Valley.
Acid mine drainage from abandoned coal mines is an acknowledged long-term problem. Metal
releases with mine drainage may also pose a problem.
Areas of concern for coal mining include West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.
OSASS will fund a proposal to study the impacts of older technologies on the current and
future environment. Of particular interest will be hazards to health and the environment
through progressive or sudden failure due to age, decay or physical wear.
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INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY IN REGION III
Industry
Iron & steel
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Other Primary Nonferrous
Other Nonferrous Rolling & Drawing
Nonferrous Wire Drawing
Nonferrous Forging & Casting
TOTAL
Primary Metals
SIC (1967)
331, 332, 3391, 3399
3331, 334, 3351, 3362
3332
3333
3334, 3352, 3361
3339
3356
3357
3369, 3392
33
Percent of 1975 National
Production in Region III3'
30
10
33
7
31
18
14
8
22
Industrial Chemicals
Fertilizers
Pesticides & Agricultural Chemicals
Misc. Chemical Products
Plastic Materials & Resins
Synthetic Rubber
Cellulosic Fibers
Noncellulosic Fibers
Drugs
Cleaning and Toilet Products
Paints
TOTAL
Chemicals
281
2871
2879
286
2821
2822
2823
2824
283
284
285
28
11
6
8
11
18
1
61
26
12
6
9
12
Coal Mining
Industry
Underground
Surface
Percent of 1975 National
Production in Region
55
25
a^percent of constant dollar output
'percent of Btus
95
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REGION III SUMMARY
Background
By 1862 the first Kelly Converter was In operation at Cambria, Pennsylvania. Today about 30
percent of the raw steel producing plants in the U.S. are located in Region III. Pennsyl-
vania alone produces 23 percent of the total nation's pig iron. The following table gives
April 1980 figures for raw steel producers:
Number of
State Saw Steel Producers
Pennsylvania 36
Maryland 3
West Virginia 2
Virginia 2
Delaware 1
TOTAL 44
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute, Washington, D.C., April 1980.
E. I. duPont established a gunpowder mill near Wilmington, Delaware, in 1802 which laid the
foundation for Delaware's large chemicals Industry.
Coal was discovered on the Coal River in West Virginia in 1742. Today West Virgina produces
20 percent of the nation's bituminous coal, and Pennsylvania produces almost all of the
nation's anthracite. The four coal producing states of Region III account for 32 percent of
the nation's coal production. The following table gives 1979 figures for coal mining:
Production
State (1000 Short Tons)
West Virginia 114,600
Pennsylvania 85,500
Virginia 41,570
Maryland 2,750
Delaware 0
TOTAL 224,420
Source: Energy Infornatlon Administration, Energy Data Reports, March 14, 1980.
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The first commercial oil well was established in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1859. By 1865,
the petroleum industry was booming in northwestern Pennsylvania. Today there are 18
operating refineries in the 5 states of Region III, which together account for 6 percent of
the crude oil capacity of the nation. The following table gives January 1, 1980, figures for
operating refineries:
State
Number of
Operating Refineries
10
3
2
1
Crude Capacity
(bbl/day)
Pennsylvania 10 800,520
West Virginia 3 20,150
Maryland 2 20,500
Delaware 1 140,000
Virginia (new refinery could be constructed at Portsmouth)
TOTAL 18
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, March 24, 1980.
989,170
Some of the first environmental systems were developed in Region HI. The first water dis-
tribution system was installed in Philadelphia in 1802. By the I860's most of the largest
cities in the U.S. had some sort of water distribution system. Sewering of U.S. cities began
in the 1870's.
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APPENDIX A
BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS
A-l
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BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS
General Information on Projections
Projections derived primarily from
the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) model.
25-year forecast period, 1975-2000.
High economic growth scenario.
Information presented represents general
trends based on assumptions rather than
specific projections of the future.
SEAS data are most complete and current
for energy technologies, industrial
combustion and industrial processes.
The SEAS analysis is based on pollutant
generation projections in the following
source categories:
- Airstationary and mobile source
emissions
- Waterindustrial and municipal
point-source discharges
- Solid waste--generated by control
of point-source pollution
- Hazardous wastegenerated by
industrial activity
Contractor support for this effort
was provided by The MITRE Corporation/
Metrek Division.
PollutantDefinitions
Gross: Present in raw wastestream;
process changes are reflected
here.
Net: Released to environment.
Abated: Removed from raw wastestream
assuming compliance with
environmental regulations.
Abated pollutants are by
definition equal to the
difference between gross and
net.
Primary: Generated as a direct result
of the production process.
Secondary: Generated as a result of
pollution abatement activities.
A-2
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ASSUMPTIONS
Energy Assumptions*
Increase in domestic oil production.
Decline in natural gas production in
continental U.S.
Near tripling of coal production by
2000.
Industrial shift from gas to oil, coal
and electricity
Economic and Demographic Assumptions
Assumed GNP (Billions of 1972 Dollars)
1975 1,141
2000 2,735
Annual Growth Rate
3.5%
National Population (Millions)
1975 213 Annual Growth Rate
2000 262 0.8%
Total U.S. Energy Consumption in Quads
1975
2000
73
124
*NOTE: Based on SEAS High Growth Scenario in the
Environmental Outlook 1980 report. Assumes
full implementation of fuel switching provi-
sions of the Energy Supply and Environmental
Coordination Act (ESECA).
A-3
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Environmental Regulat ion Assunp t ions
SOURCE
AIR:
EXISTING SOURCES
- Pre-1975
- Conversions to coal
under ESECA
NEW SOURCES
- Post-1975
- Post-1981 Industrial
Boilers
- Post-1984 Electric
Utilities
MOBILE SOURCES
- Automobiles
- Trucks
WATER:
INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY
AND HUNICIPAL TREATMENT
FACILITY LIMITATIONS
REGULATION
SIP Standards
(Full Compliance by
1985)
NSPS
Revised NSPS
Revised NSPS
Emissions limits
Emissions factors
BPT
(Full Compliance by 1979)
BAT
(Full Compliance by 1985)
(BCT not assumed)
ORIGIN
Clean Air Act (CAA)
1970 Amendments to CAA
1977 Amendments to CAA
1977 Amendments to CAA
1977 Amendments to CAA
EPA, March 1978
Federal Water Pollution
Control Act
A-4
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APPENDIX B
METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES
B-l
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METHOD USED TO DERIVE
HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES
A two step procedure was used to derive estimates for hazardous waste generation. The
first step was to estimate 1975 generation In the Nation for selected industries. The second
step was to both backcast and forecast generation for selected years based on the 1975 esti-
mates. These procedures are outlined in detail in the following paragraphs.
Derivation of 1975 Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates
The draft environmental impact statement for Subtitle C of RCRA^ contains hazardous waste
generation factors for nineteen industries represented by two-digit SIC codes. These factors
are in terms of tons of waste per employee per year. Using employment data from Department of
Labor documents^ and these generation factors, estimates of hazardous waste generation by the
nineteen industries were calculated for the United States. These industry estimates were then
aggregated to form national generation estimates. The following example illustrates this pro-
cedure.
Ex. SIC Code 28 - Chemicals and Allied Products
Generation Factor - 37.17 tons per employee per year
Total Employment in SIC 28 in 1975: 1,012,500
Hazardous Waste Generation in SIC 28 in 1975:
37.17 x 1.0125 x 106 = 37.6 x 106 Tons per year
^Subtitle C^ ResourceConservation and Recovery Act of 1976 Draft Environmental Impact State-
ment. United States Environmental Protection Agency, January 1979. (particularly Chapter 6
and Appendix H.)
2EmploymentandEarnings. States and Areas 1939-1975 and "Employment and Earnings" reported in
Employment and Training Report to the President, 1978. United States Department of Labor.
B-2
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Derivation of Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates in Selected Other Years
Once the 1975 estimates were derived, a suitable indicator of growth in generation has to
be determined. The best indicator, theoretically, would be the product output of individual
industries. However the data currently available do not support the use of this indicator
since, to be useful, projections would have to be made at a more disaggregate level than two-
digit SIC code. Employment was also discarded as an indicator since it was felt that employment
would be a misleading indicator of economic activity, and hence hazardous waste generation, due
to productivity changes that may occur in the future. The indicator used was industry earnings
since it was felt that this would be the best available indicator of economic activity at the
level of aggregation used.
Earnings estimates are available for 1965 through 2000 from OBERS3 by OBERS manufacturing
sectors. These sectors were translated directly to the two-digit SIC codes. The trend in earn-
ings between the year in question and 1975 was calculated for each SIC code and applied to the
1975 hazardous waste generation for each SIC code to calculate the hazardous waste generation
for that year.
The individual industry estimates were then aggregated to form national generation esti-
mates, both total and by Industry. The following example illustrates the method used:
Ex. SIC Code 28 - Chemicals and Allied Products
Hazardous Waste Generation in 1975: 37.6 x 10^ Tons per year
Earnings in 1975 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $): 10.97
Earnings in 2000 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $): 25.29
Hazardous Waste Generation in 2000: 37.6 x 106 Tons x 25.29 = 86.68 x 106 Tons
10.97
^Office of Business and Economic Research (OBERS) Department of Commerce. Data tape - BWT.
OBERSTAT. V2RO.
B-3
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Error Potential
There is considerable potential for error in these projections. Causes of possible error
in the derivation of the generation coefficients is discussed in some detail in the RCRA-EIS
cited earlier. Furthermore, the use of earnings as a growth indicator for hazardous waste gen-
eration could introduce error since constant dollar earnings are not necessarily linearly re-
lated to product output. Also, the coefficients used are national average coefficients and do
not account for regional variation or waste generation due to, for example, production process
differences. Finally, the forecasts do not account for the hazardous wastes generated in indus-
trial wastewater treatment facilities. As mentioned in the discussion of solid wastes, esti-
mates of generation of this type of solid waste are not available at this time. Because of this
exclusion these projections probably understate generation in the years after 1975.
In spite of these difficulties, these projections are a reasonable "first cut" at this
problem. The increase in generation of 3.3 percent per year projected in the nation is fairly
close to the growth in industrial solid waste generation projected by EPA (about 3 percent per
year). Further, the 1975 national total of 59.6 million tons of hazardous wastes is approxi-
mately 16 percent of the 1975 industrial solid waste generation estimated by EPA. This is close
to the 10-15 percent range that EPA estimates for hazardous wastes.
B-4
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APPENDIX C
REGION III ORD SENIOR STAFF MEETING AGENDA
C-l
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REGION III/ORD SENIOR STAFF MEETING
MONDAY, JUNE 23, 1980
Room 213, Curtis Building
6th & Walnut Streets
Philadelphia, Pa. Tel: 597-9814
AGENDA
AM
10:00
10:15
11:00
Opening Statements
Organization of the ORD
Research Committee Process
Trends Assessment for Region III
Hazardous Wastes
Regional Representative
Preliminary Site Assessments
Site Investigations & Analysis
Case Development
Discovery, Monitoring and
Analytical Aspects
Transport, Fate, and Ecological
Effects
Jack Schrarara
Regional Administrator
Stephen J« Gage
Assistant Administrator
Office of Research and Development
Gary Gardner, Deputy Director, Air Toxics and
Hazardous Materials Division
Robert Allen, Chief, Hazardous Materials Branch,
AT&HMD
Jeffrey Hass, Chief, Environmental Emergency
Branch, SAD
Thomas Voltaggio, Chief Air Enforcement Branch, ED
William Lacy, Director, Office of Monitoring and
Technical Support, ORD
Allan Hirsch, Deputy Assistant Administrator for
Processes and Effects Research, ORD
C-2
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REGION III/ORD SENIOR STAFF MEETING (CONT.)
All
Health Effects Support for Case Roger Cortesi, Associate Deputy Assistant
Development
Hazardous Waste Disposal
12:00 LUNCH
PM
1:15 Acid Precipitation
Legal Aspects
Interstate Aspects
Regional Monitoring Network
ORD Acid Precipitation Research
2:00 Energy
Coal Mining Permits
Administrator for Health Research, ORD
Kurt Riegel, Associate Deputy Assistant
Administrator for Environmental Engineering
and Technology, ORD
Sheldon Novick
Regional Counsel
Stephen Wassersug, Director, Air, Toxics and
Hazardous Materials I) i vis ion
William Belanger, Air Analysis and Energy
Section, AT&HMD
Albert Montague, Acting Director, Surveillance
and Analysis Division
Dennis Tirpak, Director, Office of Exploratory
Research, ORD
Dan Sweeney, WV Section, ED
Joe Piotrowski, Acting Chief, EIS
Preparation Section, OIR&PA
C-3
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REGION III/ORD SENIOR STAFF MEETING (CONCL.)
PM
2:45
3:30
Synfuels
Control Technology (Air)
Air Diffusion Modelling
Environmental Process and
Ecology
Control Technology
Water
Regional Concerns about Land
Treatment, Groundwater, and
Wastewater Treatment Technology
Health Implications
Monitoring
Transport
Treatement Technology
Closing
Dan Sweeney
Lew Felleisen, Chief, Air Analysis and Energy
Section, AT&HMD
William Belanger
Allan Hirsch
Kurt Riegel
Fred Grant, Chief, Program Management and
Support Branch, WD
Roger Cortesi
William Lacy
Allan Hirsch
Kurt Riegel
Stephen Gage and Jack Schramm
C-4
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Department Approval:.
MITRE Project Approval:.
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