UNITED STATES - CANADA
= MEMORANDUM OF INTENT
ON
TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT
AND IMPLEMENTATION
INTERIM REPORT
FEBRUARY 1981
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This is an Interim Report prepared by a U.S./Canada Work Group in
accordance with the Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution
concluded between Canada and the United States on August 5, 1980.
This is one of a set of four reports which represent an initial
effort to draw together currently available information on transboundary air
pollution, with particular emphasis on acid deposition, and to develop a
consensus on the nature of the problem and the measures available to deal with
it. While these reports contain some information and analyses that should be
considered preliminary in nature, they accurately reflect the current state of
knowledge on the issues considered. Any portion of these reports is subject to
modification and refinement as peer review, further advances in scientific
understanding, or the results of ongoing assessment studies become available.
More complete reports on acid deposition are expected in mid 1981 and
early 1982. Other transboundary air pollution issues will also be included in
these reports.
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JAN
Ms. Sharon E. Ahmad
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
European and Canadian Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Dear Ms. Ahmad and Mr. Lee:
Mr. Edward G. Lee
Assistant Under Secretary for
USA Affairs
Department of External Affairs
Ottawa, Canada K1A OG2
We are pleased to submit the Interim Reports of Work Groups 1, 2,
3B and 3A. In accordance with the coordinating function assigned to
Work Group 3A in its terms of reference, we have reviewed and incorporated
summaries of the Interim Reports of Work Groups 1, 2, and 3B in our
interim report.
These interim reports are a first step in the preparation of technical
and scientific groundwork for negotiation of a cooperative agreement on
transboundary air pollution. In view of the importance and urgency of this
problem, however, they may also assist in formulating the interim actions
by both countries called for in the Memorandum of Intent to deal with the
problem, pending conclusion of an agreement.
The information on what is known and hypothesized about acid deposition
in the interim reports indicates that the problem is genuine and serious.
It is a problem which could, if allowed to go unchecked, carry substantial
economic and social costs. Further research must obviously continue, but
solutions should be sought in the near term. As a practical matter, the
only way to reduce acid deposition is to reduce the emissions of the
polutants that cause the problem. Most existing air pollution legislation
was designed to address the local impacts of air pollution. Although this
legislation can be useful in addressing the phenomenon of long range trans-
port of air pollutants and acid deposition, new legislation will likely be
required to fully and expeditiously address this problem.
Concerning other matters, Work Group 2 has requested that their name
be changed to "Atmospheric Sciences and Analysis Work Group" and that
"evaluate and employ available field measurements, monitoring data, and
other information" be added to their terms of reference. Work Group 2
believes that their terms of reference require them to consider in depth
monitoring network results, experimental field studies, etc., in order
to make comprehensive recommendations to the other Work Groups. Addi-
tionally, they believe that their recommendations must include both
modeling estimates and/or predictions, as well as evaluations of exper-
imental results, because an integrated analysis which incorporates both
areas is crucial to understanding regional air pollution phenomena.
We support these recommendations and urge you to approve these changes.
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We believe that the Work Groups are in a good position to begin
Phase II activities. We will be providing more complete reports based
on these activities on May 15, 1981. Finally, we believe it would be
appropriate and useful to release the interim reports to the public and
urge that you approve this step following the formal review of the
documents by the Coordinating Committee. This release should be accom-
plished as soon after the January 29, 1981 Coordinating Committee meeting
as is practicable.
Sincerely yours7 7
David G. Hawkins
Assistant Administrator
for Air, Noise, and Radiation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Robinson
Assistant Deputy Minister
Environmental Protection Service
Environment Canada
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WORK GROUP 3A
STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
INTERIM REPORT
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WORK GROUP 3A
INTERIM REPORT
Page
I. Introduction 1
A. Terms of Reference 1
B. Overview of Work Group Activities 3
II. Executive Summary 4
A. Overview of Transboundary Air Pollution 4
B. Overview of Acid Deposition 4
C. Summary of Work Group Interim Reports 12
III. Preparation of Strategy Packages 35
A. Review of International Principles and Practices 36
B. Assumptions for Baseline Scenarios . 40
C. Guidance for Preparing Control Strategy Packages 43
IV. Coordination 45
A. Inter-Work Group Coordination 45
B. Coordination of Research and Monitoring Activities 45
C. Identification of On-going Research Programs 47
V. Phase II Work Group Activities 48
A. Analysis Activities in Phase II 48
B. Recommendations for Additional Study by Work Groups 50
C. Preparation of Phase III Work Plans 52
VI. Conclusions 56
VII. Appendices
A. Annex to the August 5, 1980 Memorandum of Intent
B. Recommendations to U.S. Work Group 3B
C. Recommendations to Canadian Work Group 3B
0. Representative Baseline Scenario Assumptions
E. North American Acid Deposition Research Programs
F. Work Group 3A Membership
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I. INTRODUCTION
A. Terms of Reference
This Interim Report has been prepared in accordance with the terms of
reference contained in the Annex to the Memorandum of Intent between the
Governments of the United States and Canada, concerning Transboundary Air
Pollution (MOI), signed August 5, 1980, in Washington, D.C. Specifically,
the Annex to the MOI instructs Work Group 3A to:
A. Prepare various strategy packages for the Coordinating Committee
designed to achieve proposed emission reductions;
B. Coordinate with other Work Groups to increase the effectiveness
of these packages;
C. Identify monitoring requirements for the implementation of any
tentatively agreed-upon emission-reduction strategy for each
country;
D. Propose additional means to further coordinate the air quality
programs of the two countries; and
E. Prepare proposals relating to actions each Government would need
to take to implement the various strategy options.
The objective of performing these tasks is to enable Work Group 3A to
"identify, assess and propose options for the 'Control1 element of an
agreement on transboundary air pollution". See Appendix A for the terms of
reference given to other Work Groups.
This report has been prepared on a bilateral basis by United States
and Canadian members of Work Group 3A. It gives an overview of
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transboundary air pollution including acid deposition in terms of its
causes and effects. The report presents:
- An overview of the acid deposition phenomenon;
- A summary of three larger interim reports addressing effects, atmos-
pheric transport, and emissions;
- The groundwork for preparing strategy packages and a listing of on-
going bilateral coordination activities; and
Recommendations for additional study by the Work Groups and
elaboration on uncertainties and data gaps identified in the
reports.
These interim reports are the products of Phase I of a four phase
process. They, therefore, contain some information and analyses that
should be considered preliminary in nature.
A number of effects, concerns and relationships of potential
importance in assessing strategies to deal with the acid deposition
phenomenon are identified. Quantitative analyses have been performed on
some of these issues during Phase I. Further quantitative analyses and
assessments will be performed during Phase II. We believe that these
Interim Reports accurately reflect the state of knowledge as of January
1981, on the issues considered; but any portion of these reports is subject
to modification and refinement as further advances in scientific
understanding or the results of ongoing assessment studies become
available.
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B. Overview of Work Group Activities
The MOI and Annex require the submission of this Interim Report by
January 15, 1981, and a final report by January 1982. Formal negotiations
are to commence by June 1, 1981. Additionally, the Chairmen of Work Group
3A have requested all Work Groups to submit an interim report by May 15,
1981 to facilitate the initial negotiations. These milestones made it
desirable to break the work activities into four separate phases. These
are:
Phase I - September 10, 1980 - January 15, 1981
Phase II - January 15, 1981 - May 15, 1981
Phase III - May 15, 1981 - January 29, 1982
Phase IV - Post January 1982
The principal objective of Phase I is to allow each Work Group an
opportunity to develop its required analysis procedures, identify and
assess requisite data bases, and apply these analysis procedures in an
initial effort to fulfill their terms of reference. Such activities should
prepare each Work Group for extensive interaction with the other Work
Groups by the end of Phase I.
The principal objective of Phase II is to provide the Coordinating
Committee with the best available information on the emission sources of,
atmospheric transport relationships for and likely long-term effects of
transboundary acid deposition to enable constructive, useful negotiations
to commence at the end of Phase II. While some aspects of the assessments
to provide this information will be incomplete and tentative in nature,
they will, nonetheless, be the most reliable statements of current
knowledge about likely future consequences of transboundary acid deposition
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under a plausible range of future conditions. These analyses will assess
the probable reduction in acid deposition required to protect identified
sensitive areas affected by transboundary air pollution, and analyze the
effectiveness and cost of the particular emission reduction measures
selected to achieve the deposition reductions.
The principal objective for Phase III is to refine and expand the
information provided to the Coordinating Committee at the end of Phase II.
While the Phase II analysis will be specific to acid deposition, the Phase
III analysis will include additional transboundary air pollution issues
that are likely to be considered in the coming negotiations.
Analysis efforts during Phase III will be initiated by Work Group 3A
under appropriate guidance from . the Coordinating Committee. Strategy
packages will be designed to reduce transboundary air pollution to selected
levels. The other Work Groups will analyze the probable results of
implementing these packages. The integrated Phase III report should
provide the Coordinating Committee with substantially all the available
technical information and analysis relevant to closing negotiations on a
bilateral, transboundary air pollution agreement.
The principle objective for Phase IV is to provide continuing
technical support to the Coordinating Committee as required to clarify
remaining issues. No formal work program can be contemplated for this
phase until after the submission of the Phase III report.
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II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Overview of Transboundary Air Pollution
Transboundary air pollution covers issues ranging from (1) local
situations where emissions from an identified facility on one side of the
border can adversely affect human health or welfare on the other side of
the border within a few tens of kilometers from its origin, to (2)
mesoscale (intermediate) situations where one or several, sources or an
urban area in one country can produce discernible adverse effects in the
other country up to many tens of kilometers distant, up to (3) regional and
long range transport situations where many sources in one or both countries
can in combination produce a regional air pollution problem that crosses
the border, for example acid deposition or regional haze. Phase I and II
Work Group activities are aimed at elaborating on the nature and extent of
the acid deposition problem, which can result from one or more of these
three scales of transport. Phase III and subsequent work will in addition
address other additional transboundary air pollution issues of interest in
the negotiations.
The activities of the Work Groups fall under one of two objectives.
The first is to establish a mutual understanding of the causes and effects
of acid deposition and the second is to describe and analyze a number of
options to deal with the problem.
B. Acid Deposition
In Scandanavia and Europe, transboundary air pollution in the form of
acid deposition has caused acidification of thousands of lakes resulting in
reductions and losses of fish populations and other adverse impacts.
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Although not exactly comparable to North America, this experience provides
insight as to how significant the problem can become and the factors that
influence it.
Our knowledge of acid deposition is not complete. There are some
general areas where we do not as yet have an adequate understanding.
Several of these are noted in Chapter V of this report. Other areas for
further study are listed in the Work Group work plans. However,
significant conclusive and indicative information about acid deposition has
been compiled in the Work Group Interim Reports. This is summarized in the
following statements:
Effects
there are several examples where dramatic changes in water quality
believed to be directly attributable to acid deposition have
occurred;
acid deposition can and has severely altered lake and stream
ecosystems, depleting and eventually extinguishing fish and other
aquatic life;
acid deposition may contribute to accelerated leaching of minerals
and nutrients in some forest soils;
long term growth of forests in acid sensitive regions may be
adversely affected by acid deposition among other factors;
- some crops have been damaged by artificial exposure to highly acidic
deposition under experimental conditions;
- the water and soils over extensive areas in North America are suscep-
tible to acidification;
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stone buildings, monuments and other building materials are eroded by
a number of pollutants including acid rain;
over the long term some drinking water supplies may be contaminated
by toxic metals leached from the soil by acid deposition; however no
adverse health impacts have been established to date; and,
nitrogen compounds affect the acidity of precipitation, but their
contribution to damages is uncertain, and is undergoing further
analysis.
Transport
models are useful tools in assessing atmospheric transport, trans-
formation, and deposition of acidifying pollutants;
long term, long range modelling results are being experimentally con-
firmed, but only partial validation is possible with existing data;
short term, local models are well established and sufficiently reli-
able for regulatory use;
the major precursors of acid deposition are the oxides of sulphur and
nitrogen; the main cations and anions in acidic precipitation are hy-
drogen and ammonium, and sulphate and nitrate, respectively;
pollutants, particularly acid precursors, are known to travel for
distances of up to thousands of miles through the atmosphere, and
thus, in North America, they frequently cross political boundaries;
nearby emissions contribute more to deposition in a recepter area
than the emissions from a similar distant source, but in many situat-
ions the total contribution of all distant emissions may exceed the
contribution from nearby areas;
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portions of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States are
receiving wet acid deposition which is as severe as that in other
severely affected areas of the world (e.g. Scandinavia); and,
in eastern North America dry deposition of sulphur particularly as
S02, is thought to be as great as wet deposition; the implication
for acidification is not yet fully understood, however, it is cause
for concern;
Emissions
the major emitting source of S02 in the U.S. is the existing ther-
mal power generation sector and in Canada is the non-ferrous smelting
sector;
the major emitting sectors of NOX in both Canada and the U.S. are
the transportation sector, the industrial fuel combustion sector, and
the thermal power generation sector;
current commerically available NOX control technologies on station-
ary sources have limited effectiveness, however improved NOX cont-
rols are being actively developed;
control technology is available to reduce significantly S02 emiss-
ions from existing thermal power plants and analysis is underway to
determine the most cost-effective application of this technology;
process and control technology is available to reduce significantly
S02 emissions from existing non-ferrous smelters and analysis is
underway to determine the most appropriate application of this tech-
nology; and,
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current national emissions of SOg and NOx in both Canada and the
U.S. are not expected to decrease significantly over the next two de-
cades under current control requirements.
This summary of what is known about acid deposition indicates that the
problem is genuine and serious. Damage to the environment in both
countries has been documented. Acid deposition is a problem which, if it
is allowed to go unchecked, could result in substantial economic and social
costs. Research must continue in order to develop a clearer understanding
of the acid deposition problem. As a practical matter, the best way to
reduce acid deposition effects is to reduce emissions of pollutants that
cause the problem. To this end, interim actions could be sought in the
near term. Short-term mitigating measures also could be considered.
Efforts under air pollution control legislation in both countries
and the commitment of some industries to implement control requirements
have resulted in noticeable achievements in certain areas. However, most
existing air pollution legislation was designed to address the local
impacts of air pollution. Although this legislation can be useful in
addressing the phenomenon of long range transport of air pollutants and
acid deposition, new legislation will likely be required to fully and
expeditiously address this problem.
Before the MOI was signed, both countries had initiated analyses of
the economic implications of possible control measures to provide a better
basis for any new domestic and international policy decisions proposed to
reduce deposition. The U.S. analyses are determining the abatement costs
likely to be incurred by new and existing industrial combustion sources for
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alternative control strategies including: changing to lower sulphur coals,
coal washing, flue gas scrubbing, application of advanced nitrogen oxide
control techniques, and other emerging technologies. Canadian analyses are
focussing on alternative abatement options for the non-ferrous smelting and
thermal power sectors. They are assessing the emission reductions which
would result from the application of specific technologies and/or process
changes and the social and economic consequences of these changes.
Both countries are especially interested in identifying feasible
abatement strategies that will being the problem under control before more
harm occurs.
Additionally, the U.S. has taken important steps to limit emission
increases from new sources by adopting, under current authorities, strict
control requirements for these sources. In 1979, EPA promulgated a revised
New Source Performance Standard for new coal-fired power plants. This
standard is significantly more stringent than applicable emission limits
for most existing power plants. Existing power plants on average emit more
than 80 pounds of sulphur dioxide for every ton of coal they burn. The new
plants covered by the revised standard will produce on average only 12
pounds of sulphur dioxide for each ton of coal burned. Depending upon
retirement schedules for existing plants, sulphur emissions will begin to
decline after the year 2000 even with a high level of economic growth.
In the U.S. new large industrial boilers are also subject to New
Source Performance Standards. These standards are in the process of being
revised; this activity may result in the application of control
requirements to smaller boilers as well. Automobiles, the major source of
NOXj are also subject to regulation under the U.S. Clean Air Act.
. . ./ll
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Recent Canadian reviews of emission limits for existing major sources
have recognized the significance of the long range transport of air
pollutants, particularly its contribution to acid deposition. The National
Energy Program announced by the Canadian Federal Government in November
1980 recognized the importance of making conversions of oil fired power
plants to coal environmentally acceptable. Federal funding for each
conversion has been made conditional on this principle..
In Ontario, the Provincial Government has invoked a regulation to
control emissions from the INCO (International Nickel Co. Ltd.) facility at
Sudbury, Ontario. The required reduction by 1983 to 1950 tons per day of
sulphur dioxide represents a 70 per cent reduction in emissions over the
levels produced in the late 1960's. A Canada/Ontario Task Force, with the
cooperation of INCO, will report by September 1981 on options to reduce
emissions to the lowest possible level.
The Provincial Government is also examining where further investment
in abatement measures can best be retrofitted to existing power generating
facilities of Ontario Hydro. Ontario Hydro currently uses washed coal (no
specific gravity separation) in all its generating stations and employs low
sulphur fuels in environmentally sensitive areas. The Ontario Government
expects to announce specific proposals for Ontario Hydro early in 1981 on
its emission control program, which will specify limitations and
reducutions of both SOg and NOX to be accomplished in 1990.
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C. Summary of Work Group Interim Reports
The following summary statements have been taken from the Work Group
Interim Reports.
Impact Assessment Work Group (WG-1)
In this first phase of activities under the MOI, the Impact Assessment
Work Group has .concentrated its resources on identifying the key physical
and biological impacts resulting from pollution associated with
transboundary air movement. In the Interim Report the acid precipitation
component has been emphasized but other important problems, such as
oxidants, are identified where there is presently a well documented
concern. Other aspects will be dealt with in the second phase.
Acid deposition is currently being observed in most of eastern North
America. Within this half-continent are large areas in which the surface
soil material and bedrock types have little buffering capacity for acid
inputs and are identified as "potentially sensitive". These areas include
some of the most unique, unspoiled and biologically productive environments
in North America. The potential is high for environmental degradation from
the deposition of acid and other pollutants.
During atmospheric transport of sulphur oxides (SOX) and nitrogen
oxides (NOX) in large scale air mass movements, conversion to their acid
components takes place. Measurements of the present level of chemical
constituents in precipitation show that significant portions of Ontario and
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Quebec and most north-central and north-eastern states receive annually
about 40 times more acid than normal.
This excessive loading is deposited in precipitation as wet fallout
and in dry fallout as dust particles and in gaseous forms. Like acid
precipitation, ozone is a secondary pollutant, not being emitted directly,
but formed in the atmosphere in the presence of sunlight after chemical
transformations of nitrogen dioxide and reactive hydrocarbons.
Terrestrial Effects
Ozone damage to vegetation, including reductions in yield for many
crop species, has been well documeted in the eastern U.S. and Ontario.
These crops include tobacco, white beans, soybeans, corn, potatoes, grapes,
onion, cucumber, celery, pumpkin, squash and radish. At ambient
concentrations of .05 to .10 ppm during continuous or intermittent exposure
periods, loss of plant tissue may approach 15-30% and yield losses of
5-10% may occur for the most susceptible crops. Direct effects of acid
precipitation, especially on crops for which the foliage is valued, have
also been established under, experimental conditions. Other potential
impacts include: (1) damage to protective surface structures such as
cuticle; (2) interference with normal functions of guard cells; (3)
poisoning of plant cells after diffusion of acidic substances through
stomata or cuticle; (4) disturbance of normal metabolism or growth
processes without necrosis of plant cell's; (5) alteration of leaf and
root-exudation processes; (6) interference with reproduction processes, and
(7) synergistic interaction with other environmental stress factors.
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An increase in soil acidity can be detrimental to the chemical
availability of several essential macro-nutrients and over decades a net
loss of cations, (Ca and Mg) important for plant growth, from poorly
buffered sites can be expected. Areas with soils of low pH are
characterized as having low base exchange conditions. In this situation,
any further loss of cations is considered significant, however small that
loss may be. Much of eastern Canada's forest industry is founded on these
low pH soils. The general restriction of commercial forest production to
"less productive" sites, coupled with new harvesting technology (where more
of the tree is removed from the site, reducing the availability of
nutrients for recycling) and the tradition of not applying lime may
increase the vulnerability of long term forest growth to acid
precipitation.
An increase in soil acidity can also lead to mobilization of other
elements (Al, Mn, Fe) sometimes in quantities toxic to terrestrial plants
and to aquatic ecosystems. In fact, some studies have indicated that mass
mortalities of fish observed during transient episodes of acidification in
the spring are most likely a result of elevated levels of inorganic
aluminum mobilized from the soils by strong acids present in snowmelt
water.
The terrestrial system's influence on the acid component of
precipitation also has important implications for the aquatic ecosystem.
The results presented in this report on the mobility of nitrate and
ammonium ions, have shown that most of the nitrogen added to the watershed
is retained by growing plants. However, following a period of sulphate
saturation in soils, most of the sulphur passes through to the aquatic
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system. Thus, it appears that control of sulphate deposition would be more
effective in reducing the rate of acidification of surface waters than
control of nitrogen inputs.
Aquatic Effects
The impacts of acid deposition on water quality and the aquatic
ecosystem is better quantified and understood than for terrestrial
ecosystems. There are a number of examples where dramatic changes in water
quality believed to be directly attributable to acid precipitation have
occurred. In Nova Scotia comparisons of recent data with results from the
mid 1950's
show decreases in pH and concurrent increases in excess sulphate loads. At
present there are 9 rivers in this province with a pH of 4.7 which no
longer support salmon or trout reproduction; 11 rivers are in the pH range
4.7-5.0 where some juvenile salmon mortality is probably occuring; and 7
rivers are in the pH range 5.1-5.3 which is considered borderline for
Atlantic salmon. If current acid loadings continue, it appears probable
that more of the inland and Atlantic salmon fisheries in Canada will be
lost.
A similar 17-year trend toward acidification of some headwater streams
has been observed in New Jersey. As well, high elevation lakes in the
Adirondacks have shown a marked pH decline over a 40 year period. This is
one of the most sensitive lake districts in the eastern United States. A
recent inventory has indicated that at least 180 former brook trout ponds
.'
will no longer support trout because of acidification.
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A summary of several Canadian lake studies supports the conclusion
that acidic precipitation has reduced the alkalinity of surface water in
many lakes, thus increasing their vulnerability to continued acid
deposition. Many of the affected lakes are not technically acidified (in
the sense of depressed pH), but the long-term biological consequences of
the altered water chemistry are unknown at this time. Although naturally
acid lakes do occur, a significant number of seriously acidified lakes
appear to be a recent response of low alkalinity systems to the continuing
addition of hydrogen and sulfate ions.
Concurrent with negative impacts on the fishery, there have been
changes in other components of the aquatic ecosystem. Acidification
results in changes in the make up, size and metabolism of plankton
communities. These alterations hold important implications for other
organisms higher in the food chain.
Many species of frogs, toads and salamanders breed in temporary pools
which are susceptible to pH depression due to the rapid flushing of
accumulated acid during spring snowmelt. Field surveys in North America
and Europe have documented the sensitivity of amphibians to depressed pH
and the decreases in their number, especially, those inhabiting temporary
pools. The danger that they may become locally extinct and their
importance in the foodchain hold important implications for other wildlife.
Health Effects
Although available information gives little cause for concern over
direct health affects from acid deposition, there are at least two indirect
effects of concern; (1) contamination of edible fish by toxic materials,
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principally mercury and (2) leaching and corrosion of watersheds and water
storage and distribution systems, leading to elevated levels of toxic
elements in drinking water supplies.
Although the mechanisms are not fully understood, available data
indicate that fish in poorly buffered lakes contain elevated mercury
levels, some in excess of Canadian and United States action levels (0.5
mg/kg and 1.0 mg/kg respectively). Continued consumption of fish
containing mercury in excess of these action levels can lead to brain
damage and neurological disorders. No clear evidence exists, however, that
such effects have resulted as a direct result of acidic precipitation.
A number of drinking water supplies have become contaminated with
metals as a result of acidic deposition, but no clear evidence of health
effects from drinking these contaminated waters was reported. The elements
most frequently detected were lead, cadmium, copper, and zinc. In one
Pennsylvania county 16 percent of cistern waters contained lead in excess
of the United States and Canadian drinking water standards (50mg/l).
Populations at high risk include those obtaining drinking water from poorly
buffered lakes and streams (or eating fish from such areas) and those using
acidified groundwater or cisterns as a source of drinking water.
Visibility Effects
Effects of transboundary air pollution on visibility are related to
air quality, not to acidic deposition. Acid precursors that can
significantly affect visibility are sulphuric acid and various ammonium
sulphate aerosols-. Available data do not suggest that nitrates
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(predominantly in the vapor phase) play a significant role, but visible
brown plumes from N02 have been reported at a distance of 100 km from
isolated point sources.
A substantial decline in regional summertime visibility in eastern
North America between the mid 1950's and mid 1970's has been documented.
This change may be associated with changes in the level and distribution of
sulphur oxide emissions. As well, a reduction in visibility has been noted
in the western U.S.; an area noted for its vistas.
Man Made Structures
Acid deposition, oxidants, gases and particulates contribute to the
accelerated degradation of materials. Many metallic construction materials
are adversely affected by acid deposition through increased dissolution of
protective surface oxides or of the metal itself. Masonry materials
containing carbonate, such as limestone or marble, are very susceptible to
attack by acid deposition. Plastics, elastomers, and organic paints and
coatings are degraded by oxidants and by acid-catalyzed polymer
decomposition. Physical, chemical or bacterial actions resulting from
available air pollutants can contribute to deterioration and corrosion of
these different types of materials.
Possibly the most difficult aspect, when viewed from an international
perspective, will be the separation of the effects attributable to local
emissions from those associated with transboundary flow.
Loading/Effects Relationships
A number of different approaches have been examined to assist in the
task of deriving relationships between parameters of acid loading and
system response. These models are all under active development, and in the
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aquatic sector they have advanced to the point where a preliminary
application is possible, although it is important to stress that full
validation remains to be achieved.
One model, developed in Sweden, indicates that annual sulphate
loadings of less than 15 to 17 kg/ha would be unlikely to degrade
"moderately sensitive" lakes. The most sensitive lakes and streams are
likely to be on the border line of potential effects at an annual sulphate
loading rate greater than 9 to 12 kg/ha.
A second model, developed in Norway, shows that precipitation pH of
4.5 and lakewater sulphate concentrations of 60 jueq/1, are the maximum
tolerable for lake waters with 50 ueq Ca/1 or more. This in-lake
concentration of sulphate converts to a precipitation sulphate
concentration of about 40 /ueq/1. The predicted reductions in precipitation
sulphate concentrations to 40 jueq/1 in heavily loaded areas is needed to
improve the pH from about 4.2 to about 4.5 to protect moderately sensitive
lakes. Highly sensitive lakes and streams may be protected at predicted
precipitation levels of sulphate of 21 yeq/1 which should result in a pH of
about 4.8.
A third model, developed in the U.S., combines the acute physiological
effects of hydrogen and aluminum ions on fish in their early life stages
with data on pH during flushing events (snowmelt or heavy rain). These
data show a pH depression (*pH) of 0.7 to 1.0 will cause to be a response
of substantial physiological significance. Given this dose/response
relationship, a loading threshold may be defined as the episodic sulphate
loading which, when subjected to a defined flushing event, leads to the
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minimal biologically significant short-term hydrogen and aluminum ion
exposure. This model suggests a sulphate loading of 5 to 7 kg/ha/yr
produces a critical surface water response (^ pH in the range of 0.7 to
1.0) for streams in sensitive areas; a loading threshold of 7 kg
S04/ha/yr converts to about 21 yeq S04/1 (assuming 70cm/yr
precipitation).
None of the predictions of these models are yet viewed as acceptable
targets. All three models would benefit from further refinement, and the
Scandanavian models have not been validated using North America data.
However, validation of these predictions is likely to produce numbers which
fall within the range given by present information.
A number of approaches to mapping terrestrial sensitivity to acid
precipitation have been undertaken in the U.S. and Canada. Recent
discussions however, have indicated that the assessment of terrestrial
sensitivity must consider and distinguish between those aspects of the
terrestrial ecosystem which have an effect on forest and agricultural
productivity on the one hand and aquatic sensitivity on the other. Further
refinement and mapping of the different criteria will be undertaken in
Phase II.
In the man-made structure area, several approaches to modelling
dose/response relationships have been developed using materials of known
/•
composition. However, interpolation of results from test conditions are
difficult, largely because of a lack of environmental and meteorological
data at the test sites.
. . .121
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- 21 -
Atmospheric Modelling Work Group (WG-2)
The importance of the atmosphere as a pathway or delivery mechanism
for acidic and acidifying substances to regions of sensitive receptors in
North America is now well established. Sulphur and nitrogen oxides, the
major precursors of acid deposition, are known to be emitted in large
quantities in eastern North America, and to be transported through the
atmosphere for distances of up to several hundreds or thousands of
kilometers. The atmospheric lifetimes of these substances and their
reaction products are sufficiently long that approximately two-thirds are
deposited back to the North American continent, primarily in the east.
The remainder are carried out over the Atlantic Ocean. Because the scale
of the transport is so large, county, state, provincial and national
boundaries are often transversed, posing problems for and among several
jurisdictions.
Acidity is associated with, through atmospheric and ecosystem chemical
transformations, both primary and secondary sulphur and nitrogen compounds.
As a result, portions of eastern North America (as well as isolated western
parts) are being subjected to depositions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides
(sulphur dioxide, sulphuric acid, nitrogen dioxide, nitric acid, sulphate
and nitrate compounds) and hydrogen ions (acidity) that are as great as
those in other severely impacted areas of the world (e.g. southern
Scandinavia). In addition to the well known deposition pathway of acid
rain, acidic and acidifying substances are also known to be deposited as
dry deposition, that is, by processes not involving precipitation. In the
case of sulphur, dry and wet deposition are estimated to be approximately
. . .122
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- 22 -
equivalent in eastern North America, with dry deposition being relatively
more important closer to sources.
National precipitation chemistry monitoring networks in Canada
(CANSAP) and the United States (NADP) are beginning to produce
comprehensive, reliable data on a continent-wide basis, and long range
transport models (LRT) have been able to estimate the order of magnitude of
inter-regional transport and deposition for large areas. The next step
required in the refinement of the above types of information is to provide
improved spatial and temporal resolution, and to link pollution source
regions and sensitive receptor areas in a quantitative fashion. Progress
is being made in these areas through the improvement of monitoring network
coverage and through the efforts being placed in model development and
application.
This latter area is the one on which Work Group 2 placed much emphasis
during their Phase I work. They were charged with describing the transport
of air pollutants from their sources to final deposition, especially
deposition in sensitive ecological areas. The main thrust was to describe
the development of state-of-the-art, source-receptor relationships based on
available model results and measured deposition values from monitoring
networks. This exercise is in a preliminary stage, however, within the
constraints of Phase I the best available information has been produced,
assembled and reviewed to guide transboundary air pollution control
strategies in both countries.
Several LRT models for sulphur oxides have been developed in both
Canada and the U.S. which are being used for long-range transport studies.
. . ./23
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- 23 -
Only models that met certain criteria, e.g., fully operational, numerically
practical, flexible enough to include new data and other such factors, were
used. Features of the individual models were reviewed. The emphasis was
strongly placed on the application of models applicable to the larger
scales. Short and mid range models do exist and can be applied to specific
cases of interest as they are identified in the Phase II work.
The LRT models selected for intercomparison had several important
features. They used emission and meteorological data, and physical,
chemical and empirical parameters to calculate the transport of a given
pollutant to a sensitive area. To date the models have been limited to
describing sulphur deposition on a monthly or annual basis. Hydrogen and
nitrate ion deposition, two important factors in acid rain, have not yet
been successfully incorporated in the models. Initial source-receptor
relationships for sulphur have been determined using model calculations.
Because the models are to be used to develop and analyze control
strategies, a quantitative relationship between pollution emissions and
deposition in sensitive areas must be established. To do this, a transfer
matrix approach was adopted. Theoretically, by using this method, a change
in rate of emissions can be tied to a change in the deposition in a
sensitive area. Preliminary transfer matrix results have been presented,
but the detailed transfer coefficients within these matrices are subject to
future changes, possibly significant, as modeling techniques are refined.
Although preliminary in nature, the needed framework to produce more
accurate transfer matrices during Phase II has been set up.
. . ./24
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- 24 -
In order to check the accuracy of models, field measurements of
deposition from the existing monitoring networks in both countries are
required. At present, wet deposition/acid rain measurements are being made
regularly in several monitoring networks in both countries. These have
been used for evaluation of models selected by Work Group 2 during Plase I.
However, dry deposition, an important factor in ecological effects, can not
yet be measured on a routine basis. Existing deposition data will be used
to evaluate more thoroughly the selected models throughout Phase II.
Knowledge of the atmospheric mechanisms by which S02 converts to
S04 is incomplete. This can lead to uncertainty in the $04 deposition
reductions that would be achieved as a result of possible SOg emission
control efforts.
Although the currently available long-range transport models do have
restrictions on their usefulness, they are indispensible for estimating
source-receptor relationships. Their further development, evaluation and
intercomparison will be a major activity of Work Group 2 in Phase II.
Emissions. Costs and Engineering Work Group (WG-3B)
Extensive efforts have been expended in both the United States and
Canada to establish emission data bases for sources of sulphur and nitrogen
oxides. Table 1 presents the current emissions of sulphur and nitrogen
oxides for the major source categories for each country.
Two-thirds of all United States sulphur dioxide emissions come from
electrical generating plants, while other fossil fuel burning installations
and industrial processing account for nearly equal shares of remaining
United States sulphur dioxide emissions. A large majority of these
. . ./25
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- 25 -
TABLE 1
CURRENT EMISSIONS IN THE U.S. AND CANADA (106 Tons)
u
Utilities
Industrial
Boilers/
Process Heaters/
Residential/
Commercial
Non-Ferrous
Smelters
Transportation
Other
.S.A. (1980
NDy
WWl^n
6.2
7.1
0.0
9.0
Estimated)
S2x
19.5
7.3
2.0
.9
CANADA
NOx
0.3
0.6
0.0
1.1
0.2
1979*
SOx
0.8
1.1
2.2
0.1
1.1
TOTAL
NOv SO
^^^B" ^^mm
8.2
7.8
0.0
11.4
0.2
X
20.3
8.4
4.2
1.0
1.1
TOTAL
22.3 29.7
2.2
* Inco, Sudbury at 1980 emission rate.
5.3 27.6
35.0
. . ./26
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- 26 -
emission sources are in the mid-west and northeast United States where .they
can affect potentially sensitive environmental receptors in the United
States and Canada through atmospheric transport, and deposition of acidic
compounds. The highest density of sulphur dioxide emissions is in the
upper Ohio Valley (eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western
Pennsylvania) where a number of large power plants burn high sulphur coal
with little control of their sulphur emissions.
Total Canadian sulphur dioxide emissions are about one-fifth those of
United States sources, and are concentrated in the non-ferrous smelting
sector which accounts for forty-five percent of total sulphur emissions.
Power plants account for little more than ten percent, while other
combustion sources and other industrial processes nearly equally account
for the remaining Canadian sulphur dioxide emissions. Almost half of
Canadian emissions come from a small number of non-ferrous smelters. One
of these smelters, located in central Ontario, is the largest single
sulphur dioxide emission source in North America, and is responsible for
fully twenty percent of Canada's sulphur dioxide emissions. Three quarters
of the total Canadian emissions are east of the Manitoba-Saskatchewan
border.
More than forty percent of the nitrogen oxide emissions in the United
States come from the transportation sector. Electric utilities account for
thirty percent and other combustion sources account for the remainder.
About sixty percent of Canadian nitrogen oxide emissions come from the
transportation sector. Electric utilities account for ten percent and
other combustion sources for twenty percent. Two-thirds of Canadian
emissions are east of the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border.
. . ./27
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- 27 -
Natural NOX emission rates in eastern North America are currently
not well determined. However, indirect evidence can be used to assess the
possible relevance of these emissions to acid deposition, as will be done
in future Work Group activities.
Projected emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in Canada are
shown in Table 2.
Projected emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in the U.S. are
presented in Table 3. Projected emissions of sulphur oxides in the region
that is believed to contribute most to acid deposition are expected to
decline, assuming that strict compliance with current emission limits is
attained.
Technology is available to significantly reduce SOg emissions from
all major SOg emitting sectors. Because of their significance, the
discussion in this summary is limited to thermal power and non-ferrous
smelting.
Control of SO? emissions from thermal power plants has become a
complex problem with several options available and many factors involved in
making the choice among them.
Sulphur oxide emissions can be reduced by several methods:
1) use of naturally occurring low sulphur fuel
2) removal of the sulphur before combustion
3) reaction with an absorbent during combustion
4) flue gas desulphurization.
All are being used to some degree.
. . ./28
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- 28 -
TABLE 2
NOX TRENDS
Utility Boiler
Industrial, Residential
and Commercial
Fuel Combustion
Non-Ferrous Smelters
(Cu/Ni)
Transportation
Other
TOTAL
SOX TRENDS
Utility Boiler
Industrial, Residential
and Commercial
Fuel Combustion
Non-Ferrous Smelters
(Cu/Ni)
Transportation
Other
TOTAL
YEAR
1980
0.3
0.6
-
1.1
0.2
2.2
0.8
1.1
2.2
0.1
1.1
5.3
1985
0.4
0.6
-
1.3
0.2
2.5
1.1
1.1
2.0
0.1
1.1
5.4
1990
0.6
0.7
-
1.5
0.2
3.0
1.2
1.2
2.0
0.1
1.1
5.6
1995
0.6
0.7
-
1.6
0.2
3.1
1.3
1.2
2.0
0.1
1.1
5.7
2000
0.7
0.7
-
1.8
0.2
3.4
1.4
1.2
2.0
0.1
1.1
5.8
Source: Data Analysis Division, Air Pollution Control Directorate, Environment
Canada
Note: Based on a "status quo" scenario
. . ./29
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- 29 -
TABLE 3
PROJECTED EMISSIONS
NOX TRENDS
Utility Boiler
Industrial Boiler/
Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Residential /Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
SOX TRENDS
Utility Boiler
Industrial Boiler/
Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Residential /Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
OF NOX AND
YEAR
1980
6.2
6.2
0.0
0.9
9.0
22.3
19.5
5.9
2.0
1.4
0.9
29.7
SO? IN THE U.S.
1985
6.8
6.5
0.0
0.9
8.3
22.5
17.9
5.7
0.77
1.4
0.9
26.7
(106 tons)
1990
7.6
6.9
0.0
0.8
8.6
23.9
18.6
6.8
0.60
1.2
0.9
28.7
1995
8.4
7.6
0.0
0.8
9.4
26.2
19.0
8.6
0.56
0.9
0.9
30.0
2000
9.2
8.4
0.0
0.7
10.2
28.5
18.5
10.3
0.52
0.6
0.9
30.8
Source: These emission estimates based on 1980 trends but projected with %
change of models (utility-TRI, industrial ICF; RES/COM-SEAS;
Transportation-Anne Arbor); NF Smelters come from an actual
unit-by-unit survey.
. . ./30
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- 30 -
The listing in Table 4 is made for process choices at different
required levels of emission reduction. It should be noted that these are
only approximate and that site-specific conditions could well affect the
pollution control option actually chosen.
Several approaches can be used for NOX control. Low nitrogen fuel
is one of these but is not as effective as low sulphur fuel is for SOg
because more than half of the NOX comes from the combustion air rather
than the fuel. Combustion modification is the most cost effective method.
Although it is widely used, it is limited in its effectiveness by practical
engineering factors. If flue gas treatment is required, injection of
ammonia to reduce, non catalytically, NOX to nitrogen may be favored.
Catalytic reduction with ammonia to reduce NOX has potential, but is
unproven on coal fired power plants. Various wet scrubbing methods have
been considered but none seem very promising.
The selection of abatement method depends on the degree of control
required, the cost of such control and the site specific characteristics
for control. A listing of NOX control options is contained in Table 5.
The non-ferrous smelting sector is a major source of S02 emissions.
In eastern Canada, the major non-ferrous smelter sources emitted
an estimated 2.2 million tons of S02 in 1980 (emissions at full capacity
operations are estimated at 3 million tons). Virtually all of the major
smelter emissions sources are in the copper-nickel sector. In the eastern
United States there are no major non-ferrous smelter sources of S02.
However, there are major non-ferrous sources of SOg.in the Western United
. . ./31
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- 31 -
TABLE 4
Removal efficiency level. %
Higher than 90%
Process
3.
4.
Double alkali
scrubbing
Limestone
scrubbing with
promoters
Coal gasificationa
Regenerable scrubbing
processes
90%
1. Limestone
scrubbing with
promoters
2. Limestone scrubbing
3. Double alkali scrubbing
50-90% (high-sulphur coal)
1. Limestone scrubbing
2. Fluidized bed
combustion3
3. Chemical coal
cleaning3
4. Low sulphur fuel
substitution
5. Limestone Injection
Multi-Staged Burner3
50-90% (low-sulphur coal)
1. Spray drier process
2. Limestone scrubbing
Below 50%
3If and when developed
Physical coal
cleaning (highly
variable effectiveness
due to coal properties)
Blending with low
sulphur coal.
. . ./32
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- 32 -
States (copper sector). No studies have been attempted to determine if
there are any conditions under which these western U.S. sources contribute
to the acid rain problem in eastern North America.
The process technology in use varies from smelter to smelter. A
majority of the smelters use the roaster - reverberatory furnace -
converter process which is not amenable to a high degree of SOg control,
at reasonable cost, due to the weak gas streams produced. Some
copper-nickel smelters utilize more modern process technology, and S02
emissions are controlled to varying degrees.
The most applicable control technology in use is the production of
sulphuric acid in a contact acid plant. Two constraints limit the use of
this control technology:
1) weak S02 streams (under 4% S02) are not suitable for contact
acid plants and a number of smelters do not have strong gas
streams;
2) markets for sulphuric acid are limited, and it is possible that not
all the acid produced could be marketed.
For any major S02 control program to succeed it would be necessary
to:
1) improve or replace existing process technology (with weak S02
streams) with new process technology which produces higher
strength S02 streams (suitable process technology is available
in the majority of the cases);
2) find markets for the sulphuric acid.
Two other problem areas are identified:
. . ./33
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- 33 -
TABLE 5
Removal efficiency level, %
90% or higher
50-80%
Process
1. Catalytic reduction
with more than normal
amount of catalyst,
preceded by
combustion
modification (except for
coal)
1. As above, with a normal
amount of catalyst
2. Combustion
modification (all
types) followed by
non-catalytic
reduction (ammonia
injection without
catalyst)
3. Combustion
modification alone
(for low part of
range so as to
minimize boiler
problems)
4. Low-N0x burners
(under development)
Below 30%
1. Staged combustiona
2. Low-N0x burners3
3. Gas recirculation
(except for coal)a
aUsed in combination with others if necessary to achieve the required
reduction.
. . ./34
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- 34 -
1) In many smelters, some weak gas streams will remain, even with new
process technology, SOg emission control technology for weak gas
streams in this sector is in the early development stages;
2) The choice of smelter processes to handle concentrates which
contain high levels of impurities is limited. This in turn may
reduce the level of S02 control achievable at smelters handling
these concentrates.
These factors are being given careful consideration in analyses
conducted by the Canadian Federal and Provincial Governments.
. . ./35
-------
III. PREPARATION OF STRATEGY PACKAGES
The purpose of this section is to provide the initial framework for
developing control strategies that incorporate the guiding principles
continued in the Joint Statement of July 26, 1979 on Transboundary Air
Quality. The Joint Statement reviews the existing international rights,
obligations, commitments and cooperative practices to which both countries
subscribe. The complete text of the Joint Statement is incorporated in
Section A of this chapter.
Section B discusses the development of baseline scenarios. These
scenarios contain a number of assumptions which describe the future status
of relevant economic, energy and environmental control factors. Control
strategies under development will draw on the results of the Work Group
efforts and will focus on emission control and mitigation measures beyond
those anticipated under baseline conditions.
The final section of this chapter discusses important issues which
require consideration of and coordination between Work Group 3A and 3B in
the development of control strategies. These issues relate to: (1) finding
acceptable allocations of emission reductions between the two countries,
which are subject to bilateral discussions, and (2) balancing those factors
pertaining to the allocation of emission reductions among different
jurisdictions within a single country, which is subject to the sole
consideration of that country. In conducting this work, it is recognized
that although cost/benefit analysis can be a useful tool for examining
environmental issues within the confines of a single country, this
. . ./36
-------
- 36 -
technique is not appropriate for application to the international
situation.
A. Review of Existing International Principles and Practices
The approach of the two Governments to transboundary air pollution
has been set out in the Joint Statement of July 26, 1979, and resulted in
the Memorandum of Intent of August 5, 1980. The text of the Joint
Statement is repeated here as a guide to developing strategies to control
transboundary air pollution.
Transboundary air quality has become a matter of
increasing concern to people in both the United States and
Canada. This issue has many dimensions, including the long
range transport of air pollutants and the phenomenon of
'acid rain1. Both Governments have recognized the need for
close and continuing cooperation to protect and enhance
transboundary air quality.
Discussions on transboundary air quality were
initiated through an Exchange of Notes of November 16 and
17, 1978, in which the United States Department of State
proposed that "representatives of the two Governments meet
at an early date to discuss informally (a) the negotiation
of a cooperative agreement on preserving and enhancing air.
quality, and (b) other steps which might be taken to reduce
or eliminate the undesireable impacts on the two countries
resulting from air pollution."
In reply, the Canadian Government indicated that it
shared United States concern about the growing problem of
transboundary air pollution. In particular, it noted the
potential environmental impact, and the transboundary
significance, of the long range transport of air
pollutants. It therefore welcomed the opening of 'informal
discussions ... with a view to developing agreement on
principles which recognize our shared responsibility not to
cause transboundary environmental damage, and which might
lead to cooperative measures to reduce or eliminate
environmental damage caused by transboundary air pollution.
. . ./37
-------
- 37 -
Bilateral discussions of an informal nature took place
on December 15, 1978, and June 20, 1979, and both
Governments have exchanged discussion papers on principles
which they believe have relevance to transboundary air
pollution. As a result of these discussions it has become
clear that Canada and the United States share a growing
concern about the actual and potential effects of
transboundary air pollution and are prepared to initiate
cooperative efforts to address transboundary air pollution
problems.
There is already a substantial basis of obligation,
commitment and cooperative practice in existing
environmental relations between Canada and the United
States on which to address problems in this area. Both
Governments are mutually obligated through the Boundary
Waters Treaty of 1909 to ensure that
"... boundary waters and waters flowing across the
boundary shall not be polluted on either side to 'the
injury of health or property ..." (Article IV)
Both Governments have also supported Principle 21 of
the 1972 Stockholm Declaration on the Human Environment,
which proclaims that
"... States have, in accordance with the Charter of
the United Nations and the principles of international
law, the sovereign right to exploit their own
resources pursuant to their own environmental policies
and the responsibility to ensure that activities
within their jurisdiction or control do not cause
damage to the environment of other States or of areas
beyond the limits of national jurisdiction ..."
A number of cooperative steps have been taken to deal
with transboundary air pollution. In the 1978 Great Lakes
Water Quality Agreement, both Governments committed
themselves to develop and implement
"Programs to identify pollutant sources and relative
source contributions- ... for those substances which
may have significant adverse effects on environmental
quality including indirect effects of impairment of
tributary water quality through atmospheric deposition
in drainage basins. In cases where significant
contributions to Great Lakes pollution from
atmospheric sources are identified, the Parties agree
to consult on remedial measures."
. . ./38
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- 38 -
Both Governments have sought to Implement the
principles of notification and consultation on activities
and projects with potential transboundary impact, and to
promote exchanges of scientific and technical information.
In 1978 the two Governments established a Bilateral
Research Consultation Group on the Long Range Transport of
Air Pollutants to coordinate research efforts in both
countries. Both Governments have also engaged the
International Joint Commission in some aspects of
transboundary air pollution. This has been done through
References under the Boundary Waters Treaty establishing
the Michigan/Ontario Air Pollution Board and the
International Air Pollution Advisory Board, and through the
Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978
Having regard to these and other relevant principles
and practices recognized by them, both Canada and the
United States share a common determination to reduce or
prevent transboundary air pollution which injures health
and property on the other side of the boundary.
Recognizing the importance and urgency of the problem, and
believing that a basis exists for the development of a
cooperative bilateral agreement on air quality, the
Government of the United States and the Government of
Canada therefore intend to move their discussions beyond
the informal stage to develop such an agreement. Both
sides agree that the following further principles and
practices should be addressed in the development of a
bilateral agreement on transboundary air quality:
1. Prevention and reduction of transboundary air pol-
lution which results in deleterious effects of
such a nature as to endanger human health, harm
living resources and ecosystems, and impair or
interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses
of the environment.
2. Control strategies aimed at preventing and reduc-
ing transboundary air pollution including the
limitation of emissions by the use of control
technologies for new, substantially modified, and
as appropriate, existing fac'ilities.
3. Expanded notification and consultation on matters
involving a risk or potential ri'sk of trans-
boundary air pollution.
4. Expanded exchanges of scientific information and
increased cooperation in research and development
./39
-------
- 39 -
concerning transboundary air pollution processes,
effects, and emission control technologies.
5. Expanded monitoring and evaluation efforts aimed
at understanding the full scope of the
transboundary air pollution phenomenon.
6. Cooperative assessment of long-term environmental
trends and of the implications of these trends for
transboundary air pollution problems.
7. Consideration of such matters as institutional
arrangements, equal access, non-discrimination,
and liability and compensation, as relevant to an
agreement.
8. Consideration of measures to implement an agree-
ment.
Since the Joint Statement was issued, both Governments have signed the
UN Economic Commission for Europe Convention on Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution on November 13, 1979. This Convention reaffirms the
commitment of both countries to develop effective international solutions
to the problem.
Measures intended to deal specifically with transboundary air
pollution between the United States and Canada are outlined in the
Memorandum of Intent (MOI) signed by both Governments on August 5, 1980.
The MOI notes the intention of both Governments to begin negotiation of a
cooperative agreement on transboundary air pollution, and creates the Work
Group structure to assist in preparations for negotiations. The MOI
records the intention of both Governments to take interim actions available
under current authority to combat transboundary air pollution pending
conclusion of an agreement, including interim control action, advanced
notification and consultation on activities potentially contributing to
. . ./40
-------
- 40 -
transboundary air pollution, and cooperation in scientific research and
monitoring.
Domestic legislation in both countries recognizes the need to take
action to control international air pollution. The United States Clean Air
Act allows the U.S. Government to require emission reductions from States
where there is reason to believe that pollution from U.S. sources endanger
public health or welfare in a foreign country, so long as that country
provides essentially the same rights to the U.S.
In December 1980, the Canada Clean Air Act was amended with a view to
providing the United States with essentially the same rights as those
provided to Canada under the U.S. Clean Air Act. In particular, the
amendments now allow the Canadian Government to regulate emissions on both
a regional and site specific basis to protect the environment and human
health in the United States.
B. Assumptions for Baseline Scenarios
It is recognized that the anticipated costs of any proposed control
strategy to reduce transboundary air pollution can be strongly dependent
upon assumptions made about future economic and energy conditions (domestic
and international) and future policies to manage local-scale air pollution.
Yet, these future conditions and policies cannot be predicted with
confidence, dependent as they are on trends in social values, productivity
and resource availability.
Even though the validity of such forecasts can be questionned, policy
analysis requires some estimate of baseline ("business-as-usual")
conditions to be established, against which the effect of policy changes
. . ./41
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- 41 -
can be measured. This difficulty is most frequently overcome in one of two
ways:
1) construct two or more markedly disparate baseline scenarios
against which all proposed policy measures can be tested. Those
policy measures which are invarient in their effects, independent
of choice of baseline scenarios, can be considered to be more
certain in their costs and effectiveness than those whose effects
are dependent upon choice of baseline scenario.
2) construct one baseline scenario against which all proposed policy
measures can be tested. For those policy measures which appear
promising, execute widely varying changes in baseline assumptions
to test the sensitivity of the policy measures to baseline
assumptions.
In specific situations a choice is generally made between these two
approaches based on several criteria: number of policy options to study,
cost of analysis for each scenario, opportunity arid ability to perform
sensitivity analyses, etc.
Studies currently underway in both countries on possible control
options have not coordinated their baseline assumptions, although such
coordination is recognized to be highly desireable. Such coordination does
not require the use of the same value for each scenario parameter in both
countries, only that the choice of parameters is consistent for the two.
For example, assumed U.S. energy imports from Canada should match assumed
Canadian exports to the U.S., but the market price of energy in the two
countries may be quite different due to varying domestic energy policies.
. . ,/42
-------
- 42 -
Baseline scenario assumptions recently used in studies by the two countries
are presented in Appendix D.
Efforts are underway to coordinate the development of a prototype
baseline scenario that can be used by studies in both countries. Once such
a scenario has been constructed and tested, a decision must be reached on
whether 1) multiple baseline scenarios will be developed, or 2) extensive
sensitivity analysis will be performed on one scenario.
Even with Work Group 3A providing a baseline scenario(s), Work Group
3B will still have to make further detailed assumptions concerning many
engineering and economic parameters. Some of these will be unique to one
country. For others, differing assumptions for each country or for
different regions within a country will be appropriate. A partial list of
these parameters include:
- Regional disaggregation of GNP
Regional disaggregation of energy prices and energy consumption
- Conversion of oil-fired plants to coal
- Nuclear pov/er plant construction schedules and capacity factors
- Detailed pollution control costs
- Detailed coal supply linkages
It is the responsibility of Work Group 3B to project, to the extent
practical, a reasonable range and mean value for these parameters. Work
Group 38 must also determine the sensitivity of their analyses results to
changes of these parameters within their projected range.
. . ./43
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C. Guidance for Preparing Control Strategy Packages
During Phase II, Work Group 1 will identify reductions in sulphur
deposition rates necessary to protect sensitive areas from acidification.
Work Group 3B will utilize the atmospheric transfer matrices developed by
Work Group 2 to determine the amount of emission reductions from specific
source areas to achieve the deposition reduction objectives. Further, Work
Group 3B will analyze the costs associated with these emission reductions.
During this period, Work Group 3B will need guidance regarding appropriate
factors to be considered in allocating required emission reductions among
contributing source areas. Any set of deposition reductions proposed for a
sensitive area or group of sensitive areas will not have a mathematically
unique solution in terms of an individually specified reduction for each
contributing source area. This introduces the need for some guidance to
Work Group 3B in allocating reductions among contributing source areas.
In preparing control strategy packages, Work Group 38 in consultation
with Work Group 3A, will be guided by existing international rights,
obligations, commitments and cooperative practices as articulated in
Section A of this Chapter. Since there remains room for interpretation in
applying these rights, obligations, etc for specific situations, the Work
Groups will need to provide the Coordinating Committee with sufficient
technical information on implications of alternative approaches to enable
interpretation of international transboundary air pollution
responsibilities.
A second area for which guidance to Work Group 38 is required is in
allocating emission reductions to source regions within the boundaries of a
single country. Both Chairmen of Work Group 3A have communicated
. . ,/44
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separately to their respective Work Group 38 Chairman as to how to address
domestic issues associated with within-country reductions. These are
included in Appendices B and C of this report. It is anticipated that
further consultation among members of Work Group 3A and 3B from each
country will continue separately as required.
During Phase II a separate series of control strategies will be
prepared for each major source region in Canada and the United States. For
each source region, the strategies will focus on emission reductions
ranging from business as usual to the application of best available control
technology (maximum reductions technically possible). The strategies will
include appropriate intermediate steps depending on the nature of the
sources within the region and the control technology or actions which could
be applied. For each intermediate step, the implications of taking that
step for moving to the next step will be addressed (i.e., does the
application of particular technology to achieve a specific emission
reduction in a region significantly influence or preclude moving to more
stringent action?). Strategies of varying stringency for each source
region will be studied, through the use of the transfer matrices developed
by Work Group 2, in order to determine their probable effect in reducing
sulphur deposition in identified sensitive areas.
. . ./45
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IV. COORDINATION
A. Inter-Work Group Coordination
Efforts to coordinate the flow of information between Work Groups
have been initiated during Phase I. Such information flow must be
structured such that (1) each variable used by more than one Work .Group is
described in the same measurement units by each Work Group, and (2) each
piece of information required by one Work Group from another Work Group is
available from the latter Group by the time required by the former Group.
These coordination efforts must be ongoing throughout the Work Group
activities.
B. Coordination of Research and Monitoring Activities
Since acid deposition does not recognize' the U.S./Canadian border, it
is important that acid deposition monitoring be conducted both in the
United States and in Canada and that, the results of monitoring be
comparable. Coordination of routine monitoring efforts for aerosols and
particulates in both countries may also be desirable. Efforts to harmonize
U.S. and Canadian acid deposition monitoring efforts are currently in
progress. A large state/federal air quality monitoring program and data
base has been established in the United States to support current Clean Air
Act regulatory activities. Environment Canada maintains a national air
quality monitoring network in addition to an air quality research network.
Precipitation monitoring is currently characterized by a good deal of
heterogeneity. At present, several major networks in the United States and
Canada collect data on precipitation chemistry. These networks include
CANSAP, APOS, APN in Canada and USGS, EPA-NOAA-WMO, NADP, TVA, EPA Region
. . ./46
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V, EPA-DOE-MAP3S, and EPRI in the U.S. The APN, MAP3S and EPRI are
research networks conducting event sampling. In addition, there are
several other state and provincial networks or university research networks
in both countries. All networks collect samples of wet precipitation and
some collect bulk (combined wet and dry) samples. Since the networks were
initiated for different reasons, frequently operational and analytical
procedures are different. All the existing networks, at a minimum, analyze
for major cations and anions.
To obtain more comparable data, several activities have been
undertaken. The more important of these are:
Establishing a common acid precipitation chemistry data system.
This system has been established by the Environmental Protection
Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Systems Laboratory, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina. This system is currently operat-
ional and is archiving data from participating U.S. and Canadian
networks including quality control information. The existence of
the common system should encourage adoption of more comparable mon-
itoring procedures in the future.
- U.S./Canadian monitoring networks and protocols for operating the
networks are becoming more integrated. Current efforts include the
operation of monitoring devices from both countries at selected
sites in each country.
- The U.S. Federal Acid Precipitation Assessment Plan will determine
objectives for a national deposition monitoring network to estab-
lish long-term trends.
. . ./47
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Extensive sample inter-comparison and sample exchange are
contemplated.
- The Bilateral Research Consultation Group fosters coordination in
the study of long-range transport of air pollution (LRTAP) in North
America. The Group, which was established in 1978, consults on
research efforts in Canada and the United States and facilitates
technical information exchange by ensuring intercomparability of
data. The Group has published annual reports in 1979 and 1980 on
the status of current information about LRTAP in North America.
C. Identification of On-going Research Programs
Acid deposition research i.s being conducted by governments,
universities and industries in both the U.S. and Canada. In the United
States, the largest support is provided by the Federal agencies and the
Electric Power Research Institute. In Canada, support is provided by both
the Federal and Provincial governments. A summary of these programs is
contained in Appendix E.
. . ./48
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V. PHASE II WORK GROUP ACTIVITIES
As is stated in Chapter I, the principal objective for Phase II Work Group
activities is to provide the Coordinating Committee, before bilateral
negotiations commence, the best available information on the sources of,
atmospheric transport relationships for, and likely long-term effects of
transboundary acid deposition. To achieve this objective Work Group 3A
will guide and coordinate Work Group activities so as to provide integrated
analyses of the effectiveness, costs, and other implications of varying
degrees of protective measures for identifed sensitive areas.
Additionally, Work Groups will be improving and expanding the
usefulness of their technical analysis tools. They will be broadening the
coverage of acid deposition related issues considered, thereby bridging,
where possible, recognized information gaps. They will be obtaining peer
review of analysis tools and results, where the need for review is
indicated. They will be identifying other candidate transboundary air
pollution issues for consideration in Phase III, and they will be preparing
their Phase III work plans.
A. Analysis Activities in Phase II
The reports produced by the Work Groups by the end of Phase II will
differ from the Phase I reports in several respects. Although each Work
Group has assembled in its Phase I activities the most currently available
information on acid deposition, and reviewed and adopted for analysis
purposes state-of-the-art scientific methodologies and computerized
. . ./49
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- 49 -
analytical models, additional efforts are required by each Work Group to
extend its analytical capabilities.
In some cases, Work Groups have utilized the limited time and support
resources available in Phase I to focus on the most important aspects of
the acid deposition problem at the expense of evaluating less fully other
secondary aspects, even though these aspects may be important in isolated
situations. In other cases, efforts which commenced in Phase I to develop
data bases and analytical tools will not be completed until some time in
Phase II or even Phase III. Analysis efforts affected by either of these
situations, will be considered incomplete and therefore, tentative, until
the full, planned analyses are completed, including subjecting them to
necessary peer review. Such efforts will be an extension of those work
efforts commenced in Phase I.
A major objective in Phase II will be to integrate within the Work
Group activities the application of appropriate analysis tools to the
transboundary acid deposition problem. By coordinating their efforts, the
Work Groups will identify and analyze alternative steps to reduce the
adverse effects of acid deposition on identified sensitive areas. These
analyses will require close, inter-disciplinary coordination under an
ambitious time schedule in order to provide the Coordinating Committee with
necessary technical information.
Such integrated analyses will proceed by successive iterations. A
single iterative cycle begins with Work Group 1 producing target deposition
thresholds which it believes are necessary in order to provide identified
sensitive areas with a selected degree of protection. Work Group 3B, as
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- 50 -
guided by Work Group 3A, will use the transfer matrices developed by Work
Group 2 to develop alternative ways to reduce the deposition in all
identified sensitive areas to values at or below the thresholds specified
by Work Group 1. Work Group 3A will coordinate an examination of the
economic and other consequences of achieving the indicated emission
reductions for each alternative, along with the extent- and nature of
protection that would be provided to the identified sensitive areas. Work
Group 3A will evaluate the findings from these analyses, including the
uncertainties associated with each analysis result and its importance to
what ever conclusions are reached. Work Group 3A will then recommend new
protective criteria to Work Group 1 to be used in the next iterative
cycle.
B. Recommendations for Additional Study by Work Groups
It has been recommended that the Work Groups consider undertaking the
following tasks as early as possible in Phase II. While some of these
issues may have been examined in Phase I, more effort will be required in
Phase II. After consideration of these tasks, the Work Group Chairmen have
been requested to consult with Work Group 3A to determine how, when, and to
what extent they will be addressed.
Work Group 1
1. Analyze the methodologies available for quantifying effects in economic
terms. This analysis should be sufficiently detailed to identify the
critical steps and to identify resource requirements in undertaking
this activity in Phase III, if it is decided to proceed.
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- 51 -
2. Determine the capability of retrospectively modelling historic adverse
effects of acidic deposition taking into account the inherent
uncertainties associated with such estimates and the availability of
historic data.
Work Group 2
1. Provide a means to estimate short range and mesoscale transport for
sulphur compounds relative to long range transport for identified
sensitive areas. Provide a means for evaluating such transport, if
significant.
2. Assess the relative contribution to acid deposition on identified
sensitive areas of primary sulphate emissions from oil-fired and
coal-fired combustion sources in comparison with secondarily formed
sulphate from these sources. Compare the primary sulphate deposition
in identified sensitive areas from oil-fired sources with the total
sulphur deposition from all other sources.
Work Group 38
1. Explore the effects of substantial extensions to the useful economic
lives of existing $03 emitting facilities.
2. Respond to the guidance on domestic issues contained respectively in
the Appendicies B and C.
Work Group 4
1. Work Group 3A attaches importance to the activities of Work Group 4 in
evaluating various mechanisms for implementing the notification and
consultation elements of an agreement. The mechanism should be capable
of providing notification of legislative or regulatory changes that may
. . ./52
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- 52 -
be required by an agreement as well as activities and practices
potentially affecting pollutant levels.
2. Work Group 3A also attaches importance to the Work Group 4 mandate to
develop proposals for institutional arrangements needed to give effect
to the control aspects of an agreement. One option would be to request
the International Joint Commission to assist in implementing an
agreement. A variation of this option would be to create a new
bilateral body for this purpose. Presentation of this information -to
the Coordinating Committee at an early date, no later than the end of
Phase II, will allow the Committee to determine which options it wishes
to explore further, whether it desires other, mechanisms explored and
whether it needs further information on existing structures and
practices.
3. In order to assist the Coordinating Committee and Work Group 3A in
assessing actions each Government would need to take in implementing
various control strategies, Work Group 4 is requested to develop a
brief overview of applicable laws, regulations and practices.
Specifically, the Group should identify the legislative and regulatory
mechanisms, and governmental practices currently available at the
federal, state/provincial and local levels to address this problem.
C. Preparation of Phase III Work Plans
The principal Phase III analysis objective is to provide the
Coordinating Committee with requested information on all transboundary air
pollution issues of interest to the two Governments. Thus, in addition
completing the acid deposition analyses initiated in Phase I, Phase III
. . ./53
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- 53 -
work programs will analyze other important transboundary air pollution
issues. Consequently, it is important that these additional issues be
identified and adequately defined during Phase II so that the Phase III
work plans will cover the indicated technical analyses.
Among those issues of a regional nature which are recognized to have
an important transboundary component are:
1) Regional Scale Formation and Transport of Photochemical Oxidants
The advection of large air masses containing elevated ozone
concentrations has been reported by several investigators to
occur between the eastern United States and Canada during
summertime oxidant episodes. The relative contribution of
precursor emissions from sources which are a long distance
upwind from areas of elevated oxidant concentrations is still
unknown.
Elevated oxidant levels can produce adverse effects on
forestry, agriculture and human health over large areas. Ozone
and related oxidants weaken many crop and forest species, as
well as increase their sensitivity to insect infestation and
pathogens. Frequently, these episodes of elevated oxidant
concentrations occur simultaneously with those of elevated
sulphate concentrations.
2) Other Effects of Sulphates
Visibility deteriorated during the summer months in large
areas of eastern North America from the mid 1950's through the
early 1970's. Decreased visibility trends in these regions
• • ./54
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correlate strongly with trends of increasing regional sulphate
. concentrations during the summer months.
Sulphate effects on health are subject to much
uncertainty—yet reduction in exposure of human populations to
sulphates is considered by some to be of. high public benefit.
Estimates of mortality and morbidity due to sulphates can be
made but the uncertainty associated with these estimates make
them of dubious value in the opinion of other investigators.
3) Deposition of Toxic Materials, Trace Metals and Organics
There is a concern for the contamination of remote aquatic
regimes by trace metals and synthetic organics by deposition
from the atmosphere. Dry vapor deposition has been measured as
the most important contribution of mercury into two Canadian
lakes which have been studied. Direct measurement of PCB's and
'other synthetic organic contamination in the Great Lakes has
been made and may account for a large portion of the total lake
load of these pollutants.
Other transboundary issues will be identified by a sub-group of Work
Group 3A with the full Work Group reviewing the sub-group report and
recommending to the Coordinating Committee which issues should be included
in Phase III work plans. These additional issues are likely to be local in
nature or associated with specific emitting facilities.
To a major extent, the technical base for analyzing many of the
additional transboundary issues will have been established in developing
. . ./55
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- 55 -
required acid deposition analysis capabilities. Common data bases and
analytical tools developed during the first two Phases of Work Group
activities will be useful, even though these will require some changes for
application to other transboundary air pollution issues. Development and
application of other methodologies will also be required during Phase III,
depending upon the specific additional transboundary issues selected.
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VI CONCLUSIONS
The following general conclusions can be drawn from the results of
work carried out thus far by Work Groups 1, 2, 3B and 3A, pursuant to the
August 5, 1980 Memorandum of Intent (MOI).
1. The Work Groups have made good progress in meeting the requirements of
the MOI for a January 15, 1981 interim report. With continued effort
by Work Group members, and the support and provision of resources by
Government agencies they can be expected to provide the Coordinating
Committee with refined reports, which will facilitate the negotiations
scheduled to commence by June 1, 1981.
2. The findings of the Work Groups in these interim reports give further
precision to the problem of transboundary air pollution, which
motivated the Governments to sign the MOI. They also indicate that a
variety of technologies are available to reduce emissions from major
emitting sectors. Further work will focus on the identification of
Canada/U.S. control- strategies for consideration.
3. As envisaged in the MOI, the interim reports are a first step in the
preparation of technical and scientific groundwork for negotiation of
a cooperative agreement on transboundary air pollution. In view of
the importance and urgency of this problem however, they may also
assist in formulating the interim actions by both countries called for
in the MOI to deal with the problem, pending conclusion of an
agreement.
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APPENDIX A
ANNEX TO THE AUGUST 5, 1980 MEMORANDUM OF INTENT
I. PURPOSE
To establish technical and scientific work groups to
assist in preparations for and the conduct of negotations on
a bilateral transboundary air pollution agreement. These
groups shall include:
1. Impact Assessment Work Group
2. Atmospheric Modeling Work Group.
3A. Strategies Development and Implementation
Work Group
3B. Emissions, Costs and Engineering Assessment
Subgroup
4. Legal, Institutional Arrangements and Drafting
Work Group
II. TERMS OF REFERENCE
A. General
1. The Work Groups shall function under the general direction
and policy guidance of a United States/Canada Coordinating
Committee co-chaired by the Department of External Affairs and
the Department of State.
2. The Work Groups shall provide reports assembling and
analyzing information and identifying measures as outlined in
Part 8 below, which will provide the basis of proposals for
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A - 2
inclusion in a transboundary air pollution agreement. These
reports shall be provided by January 1982 and shall be based
on available information.
3. Within one month of the establishment of the Work Groups,
they shall submit to the United States/Canada Coordinating
Committee a work plan to accomplish the specific tasks outlined
in Part B, below. Additionally, each Work Group shall submit
an interim report by January 15, 1981.
4. During the course of negotiations and under the general
direction and policy guidance of the Coordinating Committee,
the Work Groups shall assist the Coordinating Committee as
required.
5. Nothing in the foregoing shall preclude subsequent
alteration of the tasks of the Work Groups or the establish-
ment of additional Work Groups as may be agreed upon by the
Governments.
B. Specific
The specific tasks of the Work Groups are set forth
below.
1. Impact Assessment Work Group
The Group will provide information on the current and
projected impact of air pollutants .on sensitive receptor
areas, and prepare proposals for the "Research, Modeling and
Monitoring" element of an agreement.
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A - 3
In carrying out this work, the Group will:
identify and assess physical and biological con-
sequences possibly related to transboundary air
pollution;
determine the present status of physical and bio-
logical indicators which characterize the ecological
stability of each sensitive area identified;
review available data bases to establish more
accurately historic adverse environmental impacts;
determine the current adverse environmental impact
within identified sensitive areas—annual, seasonal
and episodic;
determine the release of residues potentially
related to transboundary air pollution, including
possible episodic release from snowpack melt in
sensitive areas;
assess the years remaining before significant
ecological changes are sustained within identified
sensitive areas;
propose reductions in the air pollution deposition
rates—annual, seasonal and episodic—which would
be necessary to protect identified sensitive
areas; and
prepare proposals for the "Research, Modeling
and Monitoring" element of an agreement.
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A - 4
2. Atmospheric Modeling Work Group
The Group will provide information based on cooperative
atmospheric modeling activities leading to an understanding
of the transport of air pollutants between source regions
and sensitive areas, and prepare proposals for the "Research,
Modeling and Monitoring" element of an agreement. As a first
priority the group will by October 1, 1980, provide initial
guidance on suitable atmospheric transport models to be used
in preliminary assessment activities.
In carrying out its work, the Group will:
identify source regions and applicable emission data
bases;
evaluate and select atmospheric transport models and
data bases to be used;
relate emissions from the source regions to loadings
in each identified sensitive area;
calculate emission reductions required from source
regions to achieve proposed reductions in air
pollutant concentration and deposition rates which
would be necessary in order to protect sensitive
areas;
- assess historic trends of emissions, ambient
concentrations and atmospheric deposition trends
to gain further insights into source receptor
relationships for air quality, including deposition;
and
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A - 5
prepare proposals for the "Research, Modeling and
Monitoring" element of an agreement.
3A. Strategies Development and Implementation Work Group
The Group will identify, assess and propose options for
the "Control" element of an agreement. Subject to the overall
direction of the Coordinating Committee, it will be responsible
also for coordination of the activities of Work Groups I and II.
It will have one subgroup.
In carrying out its work, the Group will:
prepare various strategy packages for the Coordinating
Committee designed to achieve proposed emission
reductions;
coordinate with other Work Groups to increase the
effectiveness of these packages;
identify monitoring requirements for the implemen-
tation of any tentatively agreed-upon emission-
reduction strategy for each country;
propose additional means to further coordinate the
air quality programs of the two countries; and
prepare proposals relating to the actions each
Government would need to take to implement the
various strategy options.
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A - 6
3B. Emissions, Costs and Engineering Assessment Subgroup
This Subgroup will provide support to the development of
the "Control" element of an agreement. It will also prepare
proposals for the "Applied Research and Development" element
of an agreement.
In carrying out its work, the Subgroup will:
identify control technologies, which are available
presently or in the near future, and their associated
costs;
review available data bases in order to establish
improved historical emission trends for defined
source regions;
determine current emission rates from defined source
regions;
project future emission rates from defined source
regions for most probable economic growth and
pollution control conditions;
project future emission rates resulting from the
implementation of proposed strategy packages, and
associated costs of implementing the proposed
strategy packages; and
prepare proposals for the "Applied Research and
Development" element of an agreement.
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A - 7
4. Legal, Institutional and Drafting Work Group
The Group will:
develop the legal elements of an agreement such as
notification and consultation, equal access, non-
discrimination, liability and compensation;
propose institutional arrangements needed to give
effect to an agreement and monitor its implemen-
tation; and
review proposals of the Work Groups and refine
language of draft provisions of an agreement.
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APPENDIX B
RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE U.S. CHAIRMAN OF WORK GROUP 3B
The following recommendations from the United States Chairman of Work
Group 3A to the United States Chairman of Work Group 3B concern issues which
are closely tied to questions of domestic policy. There are none-the-less
relevant to the development of bilateral control strategies for transboundary
air pollution. Consequently, Work Group 3A has decided to issue separate
recommendations from each national 3A Chairman to the corresponding national
Chairman of Work Group 38 to address those issues which are believed to be
domestic in nature. Work Group 3B should respond to these recommendations
during Phase II.
Energy Recommendations
1) Work Group 38 should indicate how each control scenario will affect
the domestic fuel mix of oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear.
Socio-Economic Issues
1) Work Group 38 should indicate the extent to which each control
scenario would disrupt the current coal marketing patterns and what
the shifts between and within emitter regions would be for each
scenario.
2) Work Group 38 should indicate the employment dislocation associated
with shifts in coal mining patterns per emitter region for each
control scenario.
Solid Waste Issue
Work Group 38 should indicate the volume of solid waste that would be
generated by each control scenario and whether this would represent a
constraint in terms of water quality impacts or availability of land-
for waste disposal. Work Group 38 should identify available
techniques for reducing the generation of waste and the relative
costs of these waste reduction techniques.
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APPENDIX C
CANADIAN WORK GROUP 3A GUIDANCE TO CANADIAN UORK GROUP 3B
The Canadian LRTAP Control Strategies Program is designed to
identify, develop, and evaluate alternative abatement options for Canada and to
assess the impact of various U.S. emission scenarios in Canada.
The control strategies program consists of four basic components:
1) An assessment of emission sources and the reduction which could ac-
crue from the application of specific abatement technologies and/or
process changes.
2) Determination of the social and economic consequences of applying
various levels of emission reduction to emitting sources and to the
other sectors of society.
3) Macroscale assessment of physical and economic benefits that would
result from reduced environmental insult.
4) Development and analysis of abatement options.
In the first component background studies of the industries should
assess the size and composition of the emitting industry sectors, the processes
used, and air pollution control technology and emissions. Particular emphasis
should be placed on putting the Canadian industry in a world-wide context.
Site specific assessments should be made of potential reductions in emissions
which would accrue to the application of selected technologies. The control
technology jstudies should review . existing, emerging, and future methods
available to reduce emissions of acid causing pollutants.
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In the second component, commodity studies should be used to provide
information on supply/demand forecasts, general pricing trends, international
trends and "alternative competitive markets. The by-product feasibility studies
should determine the potential markets, domestic and international, for
abatement by-products such as sulphuric acid. Also included in these studies
should be assessments of implications of by-product disposal such as
transportation problems and the generation of new industry. The costs, both
capital and operating, of various reductions in emissions, should be determined
on a site specific basis, as well as on an aggregrated basis. Assessments of
these and other costs should be made using various financial indicators such as
profitability, cash flow, investment, competitiveness, debt/equity
relationships. Assessments of the impact of control actions on the upstream
and downstream sectors should also be undertaken. As assessment of the ability
of the pollution control industry to provide the necessary equipment, etc. in a
timely fashion should be an integral component of this phase of the program.
The third component of the program should be designed to identify
current and potential physical and, to the degree possible, economic impacts of
the acid rain phenomenon on various sectors of society. Information should be
compiled to identify the economic and social value of the impacted sectors
including tourism, sportfishing, agriculture, and forestry. This information
should then be combined with effects information available from the scientific
investigations and other appropriate sources to estimate the social and
economic significance of the acid rain problem on various sectors of society.
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- 3 -
In the fourth component data sets and information gathered in the
first three components of the program should be analyzed and integrated to
develop and evaluate alternate abatement options. Studies to be carried out in
this component should include:
analysis of the range of policy options (e.g. tax policy, regulation,
etc.) available to implement control requirements and the probable
consequences of each option (e.g. equitability, incentive to
companies to implement, etc.);
analysis of uncertainties in engineering, scientific, social and
economic data and their impact on decision-making.
analysis of the socio-political feasibility of proposed solutions in
both the Federal/Provincial and Canada/U.S. contexts.
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APPENDIX D
REPRESENTATIVE BASELINE SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
Scenario Parameter
Gross National Product
growth rate (annual)
Scenario Parameter
Primary energy consumption
petroleum
natural gas
coal
biomass
hydro, nuclear, etc
Primary energy prices (1980 $'s)
petroleum
natural gas
coal
Electricity demand growth
rate (annual)
Electricity imports/exports
Capacity growth in non-utility
emission sectors
industrial combustion
petroleum refining
non-ferrous smelting
other industrial processes
transportation
resi denti al/commerci al
Pollution control
existing sources
new sources
United States
2.7%
Canada
$38.00/bl (1985)
43.00/bl (1990
51.50/bl 1995
60.00/bl (2000
specified by supply
region
3.4% (1981-1990)
2.5% (1991-1995)
2.0% (1996-2000)
no change from 1976
values
meet existing SIP require-
ments by 1985
utility sources meet new
NSPS;
industrial sources meet
SIP's and old NSPS's;
other sources meet 1980
NSPS
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APPENDIX E
NORTH AMERICAN ACID DEPOSITION RESEARCH PROGRAMS
In FY 1980, the various U.S. Federal agencies spent or obligated
about $10 million on programs related to acid deposition. It is estimated that
about $11 million will be spent by the Federal agencies in FY 81. In Canada,
the Federal Government spent about $5.5 million in FY 1980, and the Province of
Ontario spent about $1.3 million. Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova
Scotia have programs totaling over $0.5 million dollars. Similar levels of
expenditure will continue in the next few years.
The purposes of the Canadian and U.S. programs are very similar; that
is, to identify the sources, causes and processes involved in acid deposition
and to evaluate the environmental, social, and economic effects. Both wet and
dry deposition of acidic substances are being investigated. These programs of
policy-oriented research will issue reports that may include: assessments of
the status of existing knowledge about acid deposition and its effects;
recommendations about what policies and actions may be effective for managing
acid deposition; and suggested strategies for ameliorating the harmful effects
associated with acid precipitation.
The U.S. Federal effort is coordinated by lead agencies and is
focused on the following research areas:
Aquatic Effects EPA
Terrestrial Effects DOA
Effects on Material DOI
Natural Sources NOAA
Man-made Sources DOE
Atmospheric Processes NOAA
Deposition Monitoring DOI
Control Technology EPA
Assessments and Policy Analysis EPA
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Lead agencies coordinate planning and implementation of research in their
assigned areas and are responsible for overseeing the development of budgeting
and program information. The broad strategy of the U.S. Interagency program
includes:
- Using existing scientific knowledge for timely assessments and, when
appropriate, policy guidance. Currently, available data and
information from the U.S. and other nations will be analyzed and
applied to the extent possible.
Initiating long-term research to develop more knowledge. The
emphasis will be on activities that contribute to establishing a firm
scientific basis for decision making.
- Establising a long-term National Trends Network (NTN) for monitoring
wet and dry deposition.
Continuously evaluating information on acid deposition and its
effects.
The specific activities of each agency are identified in the U.S.
National Acid Precipitation Assessment Plan. Detailed project inventories are
available from contributing agencies including the U.S. EPA and Department of
Interior. The first set of milestone reports planned for the 1981 to 1985
period are as follows:
ACID RAIN MILESTONE REPORTS
(1981 to 1985)
Lead
Agency
1981 Critical Assessment of Current Scientific Knowledge EPA
1981 Monitoring Strategy and Plan DOI
1982 Special Assessment of Projected Deposition Patterns NOAA
1982 Special Assessment of Aquatic Effects EPA
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1983 Special Assessment of Terrestrial Impacts DOA
1983 Special Assessment of Natural Sources NOAA
1983 Special Assessment of Materials Damage DOI
1983 State of the Art Report on Control Technologies EPA
1984 Special Assessment of Global Trends NOAA
Contributions from U.S. and local governments, academic institutions,
private industry and individuals will be sought during the implementation of
the U.S. Program.
Canadian Federal Government expenditures in research will exceed
$10 million in 1981-82. Provincial research expenditures are also increasing.
The Federal program is coordinated by an Interdepartmental Committee chaired by
Environment Canada and involves many components of that department as well as
the Departments of: Fisheries and Oceans;- Agriculture; Energy, Mines and
Resources; National Health and Welfare and the National Research Council.
In Canada, the programs of the Federal Government and the Provinces
are complementary, and are coordinated by several Federal/Provincial management
and technical groups. Key committees, and their responsibilities, include:
- The Federal/Provincial LRTAP Management Board: coordinates programs,
discusses policy issues
- The Federal/Provincial LRTAP Science Committee: coordinates research
and monitoring, and brings upcoming technical issues to the attention
of the Management Board
- The Federal/Provincial LRTAP Control Strategies Committee: discusses
issues of control related to various industrial sectors in Canada,
especially the power generation and smelting groups. Makes
recommendations to the Management Board.
Various areas of research and assessment are carried out by each
government and coordinated via these committees.
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APPENDIX F
Work Group 3A Membership
CANADA
Chairman:
Vice Chairman:
Vice Chairman:
Vice Chairman:
Members:
R.M. Robinson
Assistant Deputy Minister
Environmental Protection Service
Environment Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 1C8
(819) 997-1575
R. Bailey
Director, Planning and Coordination
Nova Scotia Environment
Halifax, Nova Scotia
B3J 387
(902) 424-5833
W.B. Drowley
Executive Director, Resources Division
Ontario Ministry of Environment
Toronto, Ontario
M5T 1M2
(416) 965-1741
B. Harvey
Sous-ministre adjoint aux operations centrales
Environnement Quebec
Ste-Foy, Quebec
G1V 4H2
(418) 643-7860
G. Bangay
Director, Lands Directorate
Environmental Conservation Services
Environment Canada
P.O. Box 5050
Burlington, Ontario
(416) 637-4551
T.W. Cross
Director
Environmental Approvals Branch
Ontario Ministry of Environment
Toronto, Ontario
M4V 1P5
(416) 965-3985
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H.L. Ferguson
Director, Air Quality and Inter-
Environmental Research Branch
Atmospheric Environment Service
4905 Dufferin Street
Downsview, Ontario
M3H 5T4
(416) 667-4937
D.G. Kelley
Director, Air Pollution
Programs Branch
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 1C8
(819) 997-1604
A.E. Park
Deputy Director
External Affairs, GNT
U.S. Transboundary Division
125 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A OG2
(613) 996-5803
M.E. Rivers
Director General
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 1C8
(819) 997-1647
J. Roy
Directeur General
Amelioration et restauration des milieux
atmospherique et terrestre
Quebec Ministere de 1'environnement
Ste-Foy, Quebec
G1V 4H2
U.A. Steggles
Environmental/Technical Advisor
Ontario Ministry of Environment
Toronto, Ontario
M5S 1M4
(416) 965-5115
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L. Whitby
Office of Environmental Affairs
Department of Energy, Mines and Resources
580 Booth Street
Ottawa, Ontario
(613) 992-9924
R. Beaulieu
U.S. Transboundary Relations Division
Department of External Affairs
125 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A OG2
(613) 996-6620
A.N. Manson
Head, International Programs
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 1C8
(819) 997-3376
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Work Group 3A Membership
UNITED STATES
Chairman:
Members:
David Hawkins
Environmental
Vice-Chairman:
Protection Agency
Les Silverman
Dept. of Energy
Mr. Jack Blanchard
Department of State
Oceansj International Environment
and Scientific Affairs
Room 7820
21st and C Streets, N.W.
(202) 632-5748
Mr. Ron Eisler
Department of Interior
Fish and Wildlife Service
Room 841
1730 K Street, N.W.
(202) 343-7174
Mr. Steve Greenleigh
Department of Energy
Room 6D033
1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.
(202) 252-6947
Mr. Conrad Kleveno
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of International Activities
A-106
Room 813W
(202) 755-0430
Mr. Thomas Pierce
Executive Secretary
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards
ANR-443, Room 811 WT
(202) 755-0523
Ms. Barbara Brown
Department of Interior
National Park Service
Room 3021
18th and C Streets, N.W.
(202) 343-4911
Mr. Gary Foley
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research & Development
RD-681
Room 3817 WSM
(202) 426-2416
Mr. William Kennedy
Environmental Protection Agency
Office Environmental Review
A-104, Room 2119M
(202) 755-0780
Mr. Ralph Luken
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Policy Analysis
(Air Programs)
ANR-443, Room 2836M
(202) 426-2482
Mr. Robin Porter
Department of State
European Affairs
Room 5227
22nd and C Streets, N.W.
(202) 632-3189
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Mr. Jack Seigel
Department of Energy
Policy and Evaluation
Room 7F075
1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.
(202) 252-6453
Mr. Peter Smith
Department of Agriculture
Administration Building
Room 420-A
(202) 447-6828
Ms. Lydia Wegman
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of General Counsel
A-133
Room 501W
(202) 755-0788 & 0766
Mr. Ken Woodcock
Department of Energy
Room 40002
2000 M Street, N.W.
(202) 653-3949
Mr. Yen Kung-Wei
Council of Environmental Quality
722 Jackson Place
(202) 395-5760
Work Group Chairmen
Work Group 1 -
Barry Flamm
Department of Agriculture
(202) 447-3965
Mr. Lowell Smith
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research & Development
ORD-681
Room 641WT
(202) 426-9434
Mr. Dennis Tirpak
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research & Development
Room 905W
(202) 755-0455
Mr. Ted Williams
Department of Energy
Forrestal Building
Room 4G025
1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.
(202) 252-4760
Mr. Sidney Worthington
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Planning & Management
PM-221, Room 415W
(202) 755-4803
Work Group 2 - Lester Machta, Director
Air Resources Laboratories, NOAA
(202) 427-7645
Work Group 38 - Kurt Riegel
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research & Development
RD-681
(202) 755-4857
Work Group 4 - John Crook
State Department
(202) 632-9500
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