United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Research
and Development
Washington DC 20460
EPA-600/9-78-011
July 1978
Environmental
Outlook, 1977
National, Regional, and
Sectoral Trends and
Forecasts
1975, 1985, 1990
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
6. Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
7. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
8. "Special" Reports
9. Miscellaneous Reports
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/9-78-011
July 1978
ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK, 1977
National, Regional, and Sectoral
Trends and Forecasts
1975, 1985, 1990
by
Peter W. House
Roger D. Shull
Prepared for
Office of Research and Development
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, B.C. 20460
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and Development,
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Mention
of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or re-
commendation for use.
11
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PREFACE
Environmental Outlook 1977 contains projections of data for residuals
from a variety of energy and industrial activities. The residuals in question
are problematic in that they might enter the environment should a series of
hypothesized measures be chosen to implement the President's National Energy
Plan (issued April 29, 1977). These projections were generated by a compre-
hensive simulation model developed by the U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA)--the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)--which has
incorporated recent modifications and data files developed by the Energy
Research and Development Administration (ERDA), now a part of the Department
of Energy. The modifications and data files have also been used in ERDA's
Environmental Assessment Report.
The projections in Environmental Outlook 1977 are based upon a number of
assumptions regarding economic, environmental, and energy related decisions
which may be made in the future. They are therefore to be taken as assess-
ments of potential impacts, those which would occur should all assumptions
become realities. Because of the complex and dynamic nature of interrelation-
ships between energy, economic, and environmental issues, all assumptions,
data, and projections derived from investigating the issues may change with
time. As such, they must always be interpreted in the light of the most
current information and policies.
111
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ABSTRACT
This document contains projections of data for residuals from various
energy and industrial activities. The residuals in question may enter the
environment if a series of hypothesized measures are chosen to implement the
President's National Energy Plan (issued April 29, 1977). These projections
were generated by a comprehensive simulation model, the Strategic Environ-
mental Assessment System (SEAS).
The data and projections are based on assumptions regarding future
economic, energy, and environmental decisions. They encompass regional
breakdowns by source for various pollutants in air, water, and solid wastes,
including toxic substances. Trends are expressed as 1985 and 1990 multiples
of their respective 1975 values.
IV
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CONTENTS
Preface iii
Abstract iv
Figures vi
Tables vii
Introduction 1
Assumptions 1
Strategic environmental assessment system 3
National Socioeconomic Trends 4
Trends in National Discharge of Pollutants 7
National Pollution Forecasts: 1985 and 1990 9
Trends in Industrial Output 11
Industrial Sector Residual Analysis 13
Discharges of Toxic Materials 16
Regional Residuals Analysis 19
Appendices
A. Background data for industrial sector analyses 24
B. Background tables for regional analysis 25
C. Sources of information 28
Region 1 29
Region 2 33
Region 3 37
Region 4 41
Region 5 45
Region 6 49
Region 7 53
Region 8 57
Region 9 61
Reigon 10 65
v
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FIGURES
Number
1 Impact of fixed-level discharge controls in a growing economy. . 8
2 Trends of national total discharge of some common residuals
to air, water, and land 10
3 Regional growth in pollutants in 1990 (air pollution) 21
4 Regional growth in pollutants in 1990 (water pollution) 22
5 Regional growth in pollutants in 1990 (solid waste) 23
C-l Region 1 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 29
C-2 Region 2 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 33
C-3 Region 3 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 37
C-4 Region 4 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 41
C-5 Region 5 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 45
C-6 Region 6 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 49
C-7 Region 7 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 53
C-8 Region 8 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 57
C-9 Region 9 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 61
C-10 Region 10 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990 relative to
1975 discharges 65
VI
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Comparison of Environmental Outlook 1978-82 and Annual
Environmental Analysis Report Projections in 1990 2
2 Projection of National Socioeconomic Trends as a Multiple of
1975 Value 6
3 Industrial Output 12
4 National Discharge of Residuals by Sector 14
5 National Discharge of Solid Wastes by Sector 15
6 Discharge of Selected Toxic Materials to Air from Selected
Sources 17
7 Discharge of Selected Toxic Materials to Water from Selected
Sources 18
8 Regional Socioeconomic Trends; 1990 Value Relative to 1975
Value and Share of 1990 Output in Parentheses 20
A-l Fraction of National Total Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 24
B-l Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants by Major U.S. Region . . 25
B-2 Analysis of Growth of Discharge of Selected Pollutants from
Selected Soruces in the Four Major Regions 26
B-3 Fraction of National Total Pollutant Discharge Released to
Four Major Regions 27
C-l Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 1 30
C-2 Fraction of Region 1 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 31
C-3 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 1 32
C-4 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 2 34
C-5 Fraction of Region 2 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 35
C-6 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 2 36
C-7 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 3 33
C-8 Fraction of Region 3 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 39
C-9 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 3 40
C-10 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 4 42
C-ll Fraction of Region 4 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 43
C-12 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 4 44
VI1
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TABLES (continued)
Number Page
C-13 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 5 45
C-14 Fraction of Region 5 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 47
C-15 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 5 4g
C-16 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 6 50
C-17 Fraction of Region 6 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 5^
C-18 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 6 52
C-19 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 7 54
C-20 Fraction of Region 7 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 55
C-21 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 7 55
C-22 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 8 58
C-23 Fraction of Region 8 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 59
C-24 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 8 50
C-25 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 9 62
C-26 Fraction of Region 9 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 63
C-27 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 9 64
C-28 Future Discharge of Selected Pollutants for Region 10 66
C-29 Fraction of Region 10 Pollutant Discharge Contributed by
Selected Source Categories 67
C-30 Analysis of Growth of Selected Pollutant Discharges from
Selected Sources in Region 10 68
Vlll
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INTRODUCTION
Several approaches have been proposed as part of a plan to meet the
Nation's energy needs. These include the increased use of coal by direct
burning, the use of coal derived synthetic fuels and alternate sources of
energy such as waste, solar, geothermal, and nuclear, and the implementa-
tion of more efficient energy extraction and use processes. Each of these
approaches can significantly affect the relationship of energy supply,
demand, and use to the economy and the environment.
ASSUMPTIONS
The scenario used in this report is based on projections and assumptions
which simulate the President's National Energy Plan.1 The Strategic Environ-
mental Assessment System (SEAS) model was ^calibrated to simulate the macro-
economic levels, end-use energy demands, and energy supply assumptions; and
further details and extensions were developed by the Energy Research and
Development Administration (ERDA).
The scenario and resulting analysis are close to that which was reported
in the Annual Environmental Analysis Report.2 The differences between the
two reports are due to assumptions about the future prices of commodities.
These divergent assumptions result in differing output for individual economic
sectors, primarily in a shift toward service industries in this document
(Table 1). Variances in pollutant residuals are small, however.
Economic forecasts are based on official White House projections for 1980,
Council of Economic Advisors and Project Independence Evaluation System fore-
casts to 1985 as used in the National Energy Plan- analysis, and extensions of
forecasts to the year 2000. Energy forecasts are based on the National Energy
Plan, with additional details and projections to 2000 provided by the Energy
Research and Development Administration.
Executive Office of the President, 1977. The National Energy Plan, Washington,
D.C.
2Energy Research and Development Administration, 1977. Annual Environmental
Analysis Report. Volume I. In Environmental Challenges of the President's
Energy Plan: Implications for Research and Development. Report prepared for
the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives by the
Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.
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Environmental control assumptions embodied in the residual coefficients
are based on new source performance standards, State Implementation Plan
standards, estimates of performance from standards development documents, and
estimates for new energy technologies. For air, Best Available Control Tech-
nology levels are included for new power plants (after 1984) and industrial
boilers (after 1979), assuming that scrubbers operate at 90 percent efficiency
90 percent of the time (81 percent overall). For water, waste discharge treat-
ment to Best Available Treatment Economically Achievable levels is assumed to
be achieved by 1985. The assumptions for residuals are reported in detail in
Volume IV of the Annual Environmental Analysis Report.
Table 1
COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1978-82 AND
ANNUAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REPORT
PROJECTIONS IN 1990
(106 Metric Tons)
Environmental Annual Environ-
Outlook mental Analysis Difference,
1978-82 Report Percent
AIR
Sulfur oxides 28.4 28.04 1
Total suspended
particulate matter 10.2 10.1 l
Nitrous oxides 22.4 22.4 0
Hydrocarbons 9.6 9.4 2
Carbon monoxide 43.5 42.5 2
WATER
Biochemical oxygen
demand 1.45 1.46 1
Suspended solids 2.40 2.40 0
Dissolved solids 11.18 11.13 0.5
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STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
The system consists of more than 25 computer-linked models, including
thousands of equations and data points. It starts with a set of macroeconomic
forecasts for variables such as national personal disposable income and govern-
mental purchases. These forecasts of the overall national economic activity
are fed into demand equations and then into an input-output model that com-
putes the values (in dollars) of the intersectoral flow of goods and services
for 185 producing and consuming sectors of the economy. These projections of
the national flow of goods and services can be targeted to be consistent with
overall forecasts of national economic activity.
For any year of the projection, the gross amounts of various pollutants
generated are calculated for each economic sector and for important process
and product subsectors using average residual coefficients for each pollutant.
These residual coefficients provide an estimate of the mass of pollutants gen-
erated per dollar of activity and may be changed to reflect new technology or
abatement regulations.
The net residuals entering the environment resulting from national abate-
ment policies are computed by reducing the specific residual coefficients for
a sector in accordance with abatement assumptions. Residual coefficients are
based on national averages and New Source Performance Standards for most sec-
tors, but energy processes and industrial combustion processes are computed
for each state based on State Implementation Plan standards. The correspond-
ing net residuals and the cost and input requirements for the given level of
abatement are then estimated.
Various special modules are used to provide the impacts of alternative
policies on abatement costs, energy demands, solid waste generation and re-
cycling, transportation demand, mineral use and virgin stock status, processed
ore inventories, and land-use requirements. Provision is made for the outputs
of some of these special models to influence the estimated national flows of
goods and services; that is, the results are looped back to alter the output
of the macroeconomic and the input-output models. In particular, the capital
requirements of energy supply systems are calculated in detail and fed back to
the economy as material demands.
Regional detail on economic activity is estimated with a special module
that allocates the shares of national activity for each industry to counties
and reaggregates to desired regional levels. The shares are based on existing
levels, projections of future shifts, and manual overrides for industries
where alternative projections appear warranted (e.g., energy and other major
industries).
Pollutants are distributed regionally according to national pollution
coefficients in most cases; however, coefficients for sulfur oxides and par-
ticulate matter are calculated for each state based on State Implementation
Plan standards for combustion of coal and oil by power plants and 12 other
major industries.
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NATIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS
To reduce the confusion produced by the use of many different units of
measure for the various indicators of National growth, 1985 and 1990 values
for the various parameters have been expressed as a multiple of their respec-
tive value in 1975. Thus, a number greater than 1.0 indicates an increase,
while a number less than 1.0 indicates a lower value relative to 1975.
Whereas the National birthrate is declining such that our population may
stabilize by the end of the century, the number of people in the Nation will
continue to increase by about 1% per year through 1990, according to Bureau
of Census projections. This means that there will be 245 million citizens by
1990, or about 32 million more than At present.
Economic forecasts assume an unemployment level of 4.6% by 1990, reflect-
ing a healthy economy. If this goal is achieved, the Gross National Product
will nearly double between 1975 and 1990.
The methodology used to arrive at the forecasts presented herein allows
systematic disaggregation of this economic growth into over 350 economic sec-
tors. Table 2 indicates the projected growth (in terms of value of output) of
some aggregated sectors which are most relevant to environmental quality. For
example, even with the assumed conservation rates in the National Energy Plan,
the Nation will require about one and one-half times as much energy in 1990 as
it is using now. A greater reliance on domestic energy sources (primarily
coal) will result in the need for almost two and one-half times as much coal
in 1990 as was mined in 1975.
In the cases where future air emissions are greater than in 1975, the
amount of increase can be considered as economic growth which must be princi-
pally restricted to Class III PSD areas, or as emission reduction which must
be achieved through the new "emissions offset" policy in nonattainment areas.
In either water or air pollution control, if technological developments sup-
port periodic strengthening of "best available technology," projected future
discharges could be reduced. However, only one or two cycles of this review
and updating process could take place prior to 1985.
The increases in solid waste quantities may have both negative and posi-
tive consequences. Many solid wastes contain hazardous and toxic materials;
thus, if they are ultimately disposed improperly on land, there is great
potential for contamination of the land surface and underlying ground water
aquifers. On the.other hand, some solid wastes could be looked upon as grow-
ing sources of raw materials; for example, municipal solid waste may be re-
cycled for energy and non-ferrous metals may be recovered.
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In the case of energy mining wastes, the forecast assumes steady increase
in surface mining reclamation, but that 100% successful reclamation will not
be achieved until the year 2000.
The output of our Nation's chemical industry (which could be considered
a rough indicator of toxic substance problems) grows much faster than does
the population; it will nearly double by 1990. Agricultural output, which is
related to nonpoint-source water pollution and pesticide problems, approxi-
mates the growth of population. This forecast incorporates export trends of
the early 1970!s but does not assume that the U.S. will be called upon to
"feed the world" in the foreseeable future.
Assuming no catastrophic energy crises, transportation (as measured by
vehicle-miles traveled) continues to grow faster than the population (i.e.,
at approximately the same rate as the national economy). Under the same
energy assumptions, the automobile will continue to dominate passenger-miles
traveled, providing 831 of the total in 1990 as compared to 86% in 1975.
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Table 2
PROJECTION OF NATIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS
AS A MULTIPLE OF 1975 VALUE
FACTOR
Population
Gross National Product
National Energy Demand
Coal Mined
Chemical Production
Agricultural Production
Vehicle Miles Travelled (all forms)
1985
I.'IO
1.55
1.27
1.93
1.63
1.05
1.54
1990
1.15
1.80
1.34
2.41
1.89
1.12
1.77
Population Forecast: Series E Forecast
2GNP Growth Rates: 1975-1985 - 4.491
1985-1990 - 3.051
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TRENDS IN NATIONAL DISCHARGE OF POLLUTANTS
The attainment of improved ambient environmental quality by the applica-
tion of a fixed set of emission and effluent controls is not an ultimate solu-
tion in a growing economy. As the economy expands, the amount of pollution
discharged will grow due to the increased utilization of existing production
capacity and the addition of new sources. If "best available" technology
advances toward "zero discharge," a steady decrease in the discharge of all
regulated pollutants could be achieved. However, with zero discharge, most
of the pollutants are removed from the airborne or waterborne phase as solid
wastes, which must be dealt with through some form of land disposal or, more
ideally, through beneficial reuse. If not prudently managed, these captured
residuals can become secondary air and water pollution-problems. These
concepts are shown graphically in Figure 1,
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oo
(D
DC
O
CO
a
CO
CO
LLJ
DC
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure 1. Impact of fixed-level discharge controls in a growing economy.
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NATIONAL POLLUTION FORECASTS: 1985 AND 1990
Figure 2 presents the trends of the national total discharge of some
common residuals to air, water, and land. It indicates that with existing
control regulations, the Nation will already be experiencing an increasing
rate of pollution for many of the residuals by 1990. For water, all dis-
charges will be far below 1975 levels; for air, however, the total quantity
of sulfur and nitrogen oxides will actually be above 1975 levels in both 1985
and 1990. Since auto emission control advances apply only to new vehicles,
a downward emissions trend is still present for hydrocarbons and carbon mon-
oxide in 1990. As is the case with point sources, it takes a period of time
for older vehicles without new emission controls, to be phased out. Because
solid wastes are not "cleaned" or transformed in the sense that effluents and
emissions are, their quantity is always shown to be growing in this report.
Since captured air and water residuals are increasingly added to the solid
waste tally, the quantities are growing much more rapidly than the population.
Due to the lack of data, the impacts of non-point sources of water pollution
and fugitive dusts were not estimated, and only very limited forecasts for
non-criteria air pollutants and toxic materials were attempted.
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2.0
NATIONAL DISCHARGE OF AIR POLLUTANTS
IN 1985 AND 1990
RELATIVE TO 1975 DISCHARGES
0.0
in
00
en
0
m
a>
ir>
00
0>
o
o
o
a>
O)
m o
00 O)
o> o>
m
00
u>
0
O)
0)
BOD
SS
DS
50
4.0
3.0
20
10
NATIONAL PRODUCTION
OF SOLID WASTES IN 1985 AND 1990
RELATIVE TO 1975 LEVELS
00
1975 LEVEL
NONCOMB SEWAGE INDUSTRIAL ENERGY
SOLID WASTES TREATMENT AIR & WATER MINING
SLUDGES TREATMENT WASTES
SLUDGES
Figure 2. Trends of national total discharge of some common
residuals to air, water, and land.
10
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TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Since control strategy for point sources is normally focused on particular
sectors of the economy, the anticipated national economic growth as it drives
the outputs of these sectors becomes a critical factor in anticipating future
pollution loading. The sectors chosen for analysis, as a. group, normally
account for about 90% of the residuals generated from point and mobile
sources. Exceptions are in TSP (601) and noncombustible solid waste (80%).
The most interesting facet of the decision to sort by major polluting
sectors is that in toto they account for a little less than 40% of the total
output of the economy. Only the fabrication industry produces more than 51
of the total national output in the year 1990 (171). Because of this fact,
pollution control aimed at major polluting sectors does not normally show a
significant impact on the Gross National Product, although the economic impact
may affect the individual sectors themselves.
Most of the sectors are expected to grow fairly consistently throughout
the 15 year period, except that iron and steel and petroleum and natural gas
are projected to level off between 1985 and 1990. Food processing, on the
other hand, will double its growth rate.
11
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Table 3
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
As I of 1975 Value and as the Share
of 1990 Total Output
(Output Measured in Dollar Value)
Multiple
of 1975 Value
Sector
Iron and Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
Electric Utility
Petroleum and Natural Gas
Food Processing
Fabrication and Basic Products
Coal Mining
Transportation
All Other Sectors
Total Output
1985 1990
1.25 1.27
1.67 1.95
1.40 1.57
1.63 1.89
1.86 2.20
1.22 1.25
1.11 1.23
1.76 2.04
1.93 2.41
-
1.62 1.90
1.58 1.83
%
Total
1985
1.52
.94
1.40
3.57
2.02
2.91
4.92
17.29
0.34
4.06
61.09
100.
of
Output
1990
1.33
.95
1.36
3.57
2.07
2.58
4.72
17.29
0.37
4.05
61.79
100.
12
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INDUSTRIAL SECTOR RESIDUAL ANALYSIS
The industrial sectors were chosen on the basis of their contribution to
the total pollution load of the Nation. The sets presented are those sectors
which account for the major percentage of pollution generated in any partic-
ular year.
Again, recognizing the growing numbers of sources and the phased legis-
lated restrictions on residual discharges (Table 4), we find that discharge
of water pollutants is much lower in the future for all sectors except those
related to energy production. However, in most cases, the 1985-1990 increment
shows an increase, suggesting a need for a new control strategy that goes
beyond current BAT requirements.
The air emissions picture is not as hopeful, with emissions in 1985
already exceeding that of 1975 for all of the selected pollutants in one or
more of the selected industrial sectors. This indicates a real challenge for
improved control technology, production process modification or, as a last
resort, regional emission offsets to compensate for these sectors in many
areas of the country.
Solid wastes (Table 5) are expected to be steadily increasing since this
analysis does not forecast beneficial recycling nor conversion to other forms.
The significant increases here are in the industrial sludges and energy mining
wastes categories. Industrial sludges result from the capture of airborne and
waterborne pollutants. For example, a f.our-fold increase in this type of
pollutant is projected in the electric utility category due to the utilization
of sulfur oxide scrubbers (assuming non-regenerative scrubbers as BACT). Much
of the increase in mining wastes is due to coal mining, as expected, but a
much greater share of the rate of growth is exhibited by the oil shale pro-
cessing industry if it is developed as proposed in the National Energy Plan.
For more details on Sectoral Analysis, see Appendix A.
13
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Table 4
NATIONAL DISCHARGE OF RESIDUALS BY SECTOR
1985 and 1990 Values
Multiple of 1975 Value
Waterborne Airborne
Iron and Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
Electric Utilities
Petroleum and Natural Gas
Coal Mining
Food Processing
All Other Sources
Total Sources
BOD
85 90
.16
.18
.14
.30
-
.24
.48
.35
.18
.18
.17
.29
-
.30
.52
.24
SS
85 90
.003
.00
.25
.35
1.80
.00
.009
.17
.38
.11
.003
.00
.24
.42
1.93
.00
.01
.20
.40
.16
DS
85 90
.77
.81
.54
1.32
1.37
-
1.54
.71
.78
.97
.63
1.44
1.48
-
.87
.80
Part.
85 90
1.16
1.63
.57
.85
.37
1.18
1.69
.65
.61
1.22
2.04
.55
.94
.38
1.29
1.91
.71
.66
sox
85 90
.39
.30
1.45
.79
1.09
.99
1.88
1.47
1.09
.42
.29
1.39
.90
1.08
.97
2.51
1.50
1.09
NOx
85 90
1.60
1.22
1.37
1.09
2.48
1.19
1.24
1.86
1.34
1.45
1.05
3.30
1.25
1.30
HC
85 90
2.64
1.53
1.72
1.10
1.76
.57
.63
2.87
1.68
2.22
1.06
2.04
.50
.57
CO
85 90
1.04
1.45
1.65
1.87
1.15
1.47
.46
.51
1.05
1.39
1.93
3.11
1.15
1.73
.41
.47
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Table 5
NATIONAL DISCHARGE OF SOLID WASTES* BY SECTOR
1985 and 1990 Values
Multiple of 1975 Value
Sector
Iron and Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
Electric Utilities
Petroleum and Natural Gas
Food Processing
Coal Mining
All Other Sources
(Including Oil Shale)
Total Output
NCSW
85 90
1.81 1.86
2.18 2.72
1.52 1.46
1.34 1.51
1.62 1.41
1.38 1.37
-
-
2.03 2.57
1.70 1.83
MW
85 90
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.85 2.13
6.63 14.94
3.11 5.50
IS
85 90
1.53 1.56
-
1.58 1.67
1.50 1.64
3.90 4.40
1.70 1.77
1.46 1.61
-
4.96 8.15
2.50 2.97
SS
85 90
1.83 1.98
*NCSW = Non-combustible solid wastes
MW = Mining wastes
IS = Industrial sludges
SS = Municipal sewage sludges
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DISCHARGES OF TOXIC MATERIALS
The current data base for forecasting future toxic materials released to
the environment covers only a handful of the many toxic chemical compounds
currently being utilized in industrial, commercial and consumer applications.
Most of the toxics presently in the forecasting system are metals.
Of the airborne metal discharges considered (Table 6), the most serious
potential problems are related to increased combustion of coal by electric
utilities and industrial boilers. Forecasts are made based on measured con-
tent of metals such as cadmium, lead, mercury, chromium, zinc and nickel in
typical coals which would be burned in different regions. Assuming these
concentrations in the discharge of fine particulates which would escape "best
available" control technology (99.51 removal), 1990 national discharges of
these six metals range from 2 to over 4 times as much as comparable 1975
values.
Most of the commonly known toxic metals in liquid discharges (Table 7)
will be well controlled if BAT controls are installed as called for in P.L.
92-500 and as defined in EPA Effluent Guidelines. Coal mine tailing leachates
are an exception to this general downward trend. Of course, many organic
toxics present in industrial effluents were not addressed by the first-round
guidelines; hence, the current effort of analyzing the need for effluent
limitations for 65 important waterborne toxics as defined in the "consent
decree."
The fact that the chemical production in the U.S. is projected to grow
faster than the population and many other economic sectors is a general in-
dicator that the toxics problem will be one of increasing potential. Current
industry growth forecasting capabilities, combined with the nonclassified
portion of the proposed new toxics information system being developed by the
Office of Toxic Substances (OTS), should prove to be a powerful tool in
further delineating this current and future problem.
16
-------
Table 6
DISCHARGE OF SELECTED TOXIC MATERIALS
TO AIR FROM SELECTED SOURCES
1990 Value Relative to 1975
Share of 1990 National Total in Parenthesis
Food Processing
Industrial Chemicals
Non-ferrous Metals
Electric Utility
Industry Combustion
Coal Mining
Arsenic
1.59
(*)
.72
( .99)
NC
Cadmium
1.59
(*)
.40
( .31)
1.35
( -69)
NC
Chromium
1.65
( .33)
4.40
( -67)
NC
Lead
1.98
( -61)
.30
C .07)
2.14
( .31)
NC
Mercury
1.09
( .40)
2.04
( 42 )
3.82
( .18)
NC
Zinc
.90
C .04)
.66
C .33)
1.62
( -63)
NC
Nickel
.91
( 47 )
2.16
( .53)
NC
*Share is less than .01
NC-Not calculated. 1975 value is very small relative to 1990
-------
Table 7
DISCHARGE OF SELECTED TOXIC MATERIALS TO WATER
FROM SELECTED SOURCES
1990 Value Relative to 1975
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Non-ferrous Metals
Steel
Municipal
Fabrication
g
1
•H
1
ctJ
.08
.00
/ — \
a
i
2
6
1.70
.00
.29
.00
t %
a
•s
0)
,-J
.00
.05
g
^
1
.07
.02
g
^
tNl
1.49
.02
.04
.00
g
"o
•H
&
.09
.00
§
•8
• H
i— 1
Pi
.05
.33
N /
•H
g
•H
^
.p
•H
H
.24
.00
.00
> — *
|
•H
§
•H
H
.01
l/>
0)
rt
• H
1.80
.04
.71
g
(/i
CD
•P
w)
r\
1
.00
.50
.74
.00
t — \
rt
•H
g
1
.00
00
.00 = Value in 1990 is reduced to negligible amount from 1975 value
-------
REGIONAL RESIDUALS ANALYSIS
From the regional disaggregation of the economic and population data,
quantities of polluting activities can be projected (Table 8), giving a pic-
ture of where the various residuals would be emitted if the Nation's future
unfolds according to forecast.
Figures 3 through 5 show both the relative share of the total pollution
in 1990 (pie diagram) and the growth of pollution generation from 1975 to 1990
(shading).
Air pollution (Figure 3) (TSP, SOX and NOX) will still be concentrated in
the Northeast in 1990, as it was in 1975. However, the relative growth in TSP
and SOX is greater in the Southwest and Southeast. The greatest relative
changes in both TSP and SOX are in the Southwest. The industries responsible
for the growth are principally industrial combustion, and to a lesser extent,
electric utilities, coal mining, and transportation.
Water pollution (Figure 4) in the Nation is concentrated in the Northeast.
The greatest relative growth in all areas is in dissolved solids. The growth
in the Southwest and Northwest (greatest of all) is a function of the expan-
sion of the electric utility, coal mining, and chemical industries in these
areas.
Solid waste (Figure 5) is growing nationwide. The sludge problem is
greatest in the Northeast, due to high levels of industrialization and the
higher sulfur content of coal burned there. The mining waste increases from
energy production are notable in the Northwest, an area where reclamation may
be problematical.
In a few cases, the rates of change for particular pollutant loadings
were relatively large or small in one region compared to another. In these
instances, further analyses were carried out to pinpoint the probable indus-
trial sectors causing such aberrations. For example, growth of SOX in the
Southwest in 1990 is 1.87 times the 1975 value. This projection stands out
sharply when compared to the rest of the regions which grow at only 20 to 25
percent from 1975 to 1990. Detailed analysis indicates that the accelerated
growth of SOx emissions in the Southwest is attributable to three industries:
electric utilities, coal mining, and industrial combustion.
For further details on regionalization, see Appendix B.
19
-------
Table 8
REGIONAL SOCIOECONGMIC TRENDS;
1990 VALUE RELATIVE TO 1975 VALUE AND
SHARE OF 1990 OUTPUT IN PARENTHESES
Population
Manufacturing Output
Coal Mined
Agriculture Output
Energy Related Output
Total Output
Total
100(100)
1.76(.38)
2.42(.004)
1.12(.03)
1.59(.05)
1.83(100)
NE
1.13(.47)
1.71(.58)
2.35(.40)
1.07(.29)
1.92(.54)
1.73(.55)
SE
1.22(.17)
1.92(.17)
2.48(.54)
1.13(.20)
2. 15 (.08)
1.87(.16)
SW
1.16(.21)
1.86(.16)
3.07(.02)
1.16(.34)
1.36(.28)
1.71(.19)
NW
1.30(.15)
1.67(.09)
2.49(.04)
1.10(.17)
1.68(.10)
1.63(.10)
NE - Region I, II, III, V
SE - Region IV
SW - Region VI, IX
NW - Region VII, VIII, X
-------
ELECTRIC UTILITY
COAL MINING
INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION
TRANSPORTATION
ELECTRIC UTILITY
COAL MINING
INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION
Figure 3. Regional growth in pollutants in 1990 £iir pollution)
-------
ts)
ELECTRIC UTILITY
PETROLEUM
MUNICIPAL
ELECTRIC UTILITY
COAL MINING
BOD
SS DS
000
BOD SS
LA
ELECTRIC UTILITY
CHEMICALS
COAL MINING
Figure 4. Regional growth in pollutants in 1990(water pollution).
-------
tx)
Figure 5. Regional growth in pollutants in 1990(solid waste)
-------
Appendix A
BACKGROUND DATA FOR INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ANALYSES
Table A-l
FRACTION OF NATIONAL TOTAL POLLUTANT
DISCHARGE CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED
SOURCE CATEGORIES
Pulp § Paper
Industrial
Chemicals
Other Chemical
Steel
Nan- Ferrous Metals
Coal Mining
Petroleum §
Natural Gas
Other Petroleum
Products
Electric Utilities
Food Processing
Industrial
Conbustion
Transportation
Mmicipal
Other
TSP
75
.02
.01
.08
.01
.03
.03
.21
-
.10
.06
-
.45
yu
.01
.01
.01
.04
.08
.07
.12
-
.17
.15
-
.42
SOx
/o
.00
.02
.00
.09
.00
.06
.60
-
.16
.02
-
.06
yu
.00
.01
.00
.02
.00
.05
.59
-
.25
.03
-
.03
NOX
/b
.00
.00
.00
.00
.02
.09
.29
-
.09
.45
-
.06
90
.00
.00
.00
.01
.01
.07
.33
-
.16
.38
-
.02
HC
75
-
.06
.00
-
.00
.04
.00
-
.00
.72
-
.12
90
-
.12
.01
-
.01
.08
.02
-
.02
.61
-
.14
CO
75
.01
.00
.04
-
.00
.01
.00
-
.00
.91
-
.02
90
.04
.01
.10
-
.00
-
.02
-
.01
.79
-
.01
BOD
75
.23
.12
.00
-
-
.01
.00
.08
-
-
.45
.11
90
.11
.05
.00
-
-
.00
.00
.06
- •
-
.56
.21
SS
75 1
.06
.02
.29
.08
.25
.11
.04
.02
-
-
.11
.06
90
.08
.04
.00
.00
.02
.36
.06
.02
-
-
.37
.05
DS
75
-
.71
.03
.00
.17
-
.07
-
-
-
-
.01
90
-
.56
.00
.00
.31
.00
.12
-
-
-
-
.01
NCSW
75
.02
.18
.02
.05
-
.12
.37
-
.04
-
-
.16
90
.02
.15
.02
.08
.03
.09
.29
-
.13
-
-
.21
IS
75
.06
.21
.10
_
_
.22
.28
.05
-
.
-
.09
90
.03
.21
.05
_
_
.13
.42
.02
-
_
.
.22
-------
Appendix B
BACKGROUND TABLES FOR REGIONAL ANALYSIS
Table B-l
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
BY MAJOR U.S. REGION
1985 and 1990 Values as a Multiple of 1975
Air
sox
NOV
J\.
HC
TSP
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Land
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
Mining Waste
Industrial
Sludge
Sewage Sludge
NE
85
1.02
1.14
.62
.51
.50
.37
.07
.66
1.60
1.59
2.26
1.75
90
1.00
1.57
.55
.54
.46
.39
.10
.73
1.56.
1.69
2.60
1.85
SE
85
1.17
1.27
.64
.60
.51
.36
.10
1.10
1.40
2.12
2.72
2.18
90
1.16
1.32
.57
.67
.47
.40
.14
1.30
1.44
2.61
3.27
2.64
SW
85
1.72
1.40
.67
.94
.51
.35
.13
.45
2.07
3.89
2.98
1.80
90
1.87
1.54
.60
1.07
.47
.38
.16
.59
2.52
5.61
3.96
1.91
NW
85 90
1.26
1.34
.64
.10
.48
.32
.27
1.84
2.13
9.44
2.64
2.00
1.26
1.42
.56
.12
.43
.34
.54
2.05
2.32
23.71
3.00
2.10
25
-------
Table B-2
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN THE FOUR MAJOR REGIONS
1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975
Sector
Iron and Steel
Non- Ferrous
Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
Electric Utility
Petroleum
Coal Mining
Industrial Combustion
Transportation
Food Processing
Municipal
All Other Sources
TOTAL CHANGE FOR ALL SOURCES
SW/SOY
A.
.55
.23
1.41
1.04
7.75*
.89
5.44*
2.72*
1.66
-
-
.76
1.87
SW/TSP
.18
2.09*
.52
1.23
2.06*
1.09
2.40*
5.36*
2.04
-
-
.65
1.07
SE/DS
-
-
-
1.42*
1.27*
-
1.45*
-
-
-
-
2.03*
1.30
NW/DS
-
-
-
.39
2.27*
-
5.85*
-
-
-
-
.01
2.05
NW/SS
.005
.09
.23
.79
2.15*
.93*
-
-
-
.12
.58*
.14
.54
*Greater than Total Source Change
26
-------
Table B-3
FRACTION OF NATIONAL TOTAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
RELEASED TO FOUR MAJOR REGIONS
Air
TSP
SO
X
NO
X
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Land
NCW
MW
IS
SS
NE
.41
.54
.45
.44
.54
.46
.43
.71
.34
.16
.48
.50
SE
.21
.20
.18
.16
.20
J.8
.16
.12
.22
.09
.23
.14
SW
.22
.16
.25
.28
.19
.20
.16
.06
.31
.16
.18
.23
NW
.16
.10
.11
.12
.08
.16
.25
.09
.13
.60
.11
.12
27
-------
Economic
Energy
Environment
Appendix C
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Forecasts are based on official White House pro-
jections 1985 and 2000, PIES and Council of
Economic Advisors (CEA) to 1985; ERDA to 2000.
Forecasts based on the National Energy Plan (NEP),
PIES and ERDA.
EPA assumptions for control technology (BACT
assumes scrubbers at 90% efficiency operating
90% of the time). EPA and ERDA coefficients
for residual generation.
Regionalization - OBERS, (Regional forecasts to the county level)
plus ERDA and NEP assumptions for energy supply.
Overall Methodology - The Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) as modified by ERDA's Annual Environmental
Analysis Report (AEAR).
28
-------
2.0
1.0
Q1985
[331990
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx
HC
CO
2.Or
1.0
BOD
WATER POLLUTANTS
SS
g" 1975 LEVEL
DS
4.Or
3.0
2.0
1.0
SOLID WASTES
1975 LEVEL
NCSW INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-l. Region 1 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
29
-------
Table C-l
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION I
Air
Particulates
sox
NOX
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.78*
.87
.99
.61
.43
.29
.27*
1.26*
2.43*
-
3.52*
1.88*
1990
.81
.80
.96
.52
.38
.33*
.34*
1.42*
2.35*
-
3.68*
2.23*
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.02
.03
.04
.05
.05
.07
.02
.07
.01
-
.02
.03
1985
.02
.02
.03
.04
.04
.06
.05
.12
.01
-
.03
.03
1990
.02
.02
.03
.04
.04
.06
.04
.12
.01
-
.03
.03
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
30
-------
Table C-2
FRACTION OF REGION 1 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Fabrication § Basic
Crude Petroleum 5
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Part.
75
.01
*
*
tt
it
0
.03
.10
.05
.16
.55
90
.03
*
A
*
02
*
*
.05
.10
.04
.34
.42
^x
75
*
*
*
A
.65
.12
.02
.20
90
.01
*
0
.61
.11
.05
.22
N°x
75
*
*
.35
.04
.48
.12
90
*
0
.32
.06
.50
.11
HC
75
*
.08
*
.01
*
*
.75
.16
90
.16
*
0
.01
.01
.63
.19
CO
75
.01
*
*
*
.98
*
90
03
.01
.01
*
.94
.01
BOD
75
.04
.34
.05
OP
-
*
.31
.17
90
.06
IS
08
-
-
-
*
.53
.18
SS
75
03
73
.01
OS
.01
*
01
-
0
.17
*
.27
.24
90
.03
.14
.10
0
0
.
-
,18
0
.02
.08
DS
75
-
.y/
m
.01
*
*
01
-
-
.01
A
90
-
n
0
It
n
-
-
.02
*
NCSW
75
-
.07
.51
*
-
.19
.22
.01
A
90
-
.04
.34
A
-
.12
.40
,10
A
M-W
75
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
yo
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I-S
75
.04
.14
01
.10
m
.04
-
.03
-
.28
.08
0
.28
90
.01
.05
01
.07
A
.01
-
.02
-
.12
.45
.11
.11
S-S
75
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.00
90
-
~
-
-
1.00
+Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-3
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 1
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
Food Processing
Pulp 5 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication !J Basic Products
Coal Milling
Crude Petroleum 5 Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 1
Part.
-
.76
NG
NG
NG
.18
NG
-
-
NA
1.20 1
.80
.68
-
1.72
.62
.81
^x
-
1.18
NG
-
NG
-
-
-
-
NG
NG
.75
.74
1.83
.86
.80
^x
-
-
-
NG
NG
-
-
-
-
NG
NA
.89
1.50
-
.99
.90
.96
HC
-
-
NG
1.14
NG
-
-
NG
-
NG
0
1.25
1.58
-
.44
.63
.52
CO
-
1.18
NG
-
NG
-
-
NG
1.55
1.38
NG
-
.37
1.05
.38
BOD
.51
.14
.03
.29
NG
-
-
-
-
-
-
NG
.56
-
-
.35
. 33
SS
.36
.21
.11
.71
.01
NG
0
_
-
NA
0
4.22
_
.58
-
.11
.34
DS
-
-
1.44
0
*
NG
NG
0
-
_
_
3.15
_
_
_
NG
1.42
NCSW
_
1.22
_
_
NG
1.55
NG
_
_
_
1.56
4.24
22.53
_
_
NG
2.35
M-W
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
-
I-S
1.45
2.84 1
•> 39
2.06
1.33
2.42
1.56
20 39
NA
.45
3.68
S-S
") 9 T
2.23
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
2.0
1.0
Q
1985
AIR POLLUTANTS
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx HC
CO
2.0
1.0
0
WATER POLLUTANTS
BOD
1975 LEVEL
SS
DS
4.0
30
2.0
1.0
SOLID WASTES
1975 LEVEL
NCSW INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-2. Region 2 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
-------
Table C-4
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 2
Air
Particulates
SO
sux
NOY
A.
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(i-s)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.67*
1.17*
1.14
.63
.47
.33
.28*
.49
2.08*
-
3.05*
1.97*
1990
.68*
1.09*
1.13
.56
.42
.35*
.31
.54
2.02*
-
3.45*
1.99*
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.05
.06
.08
.08
.08
.14
.04
.19
.03
-
.08
.11
1985
.06
.07
.07
.08
.07
.13
.10
.13
.04
-
.10
.12
1990
.05
.06
.07
.08
.07
.13
.08
.13
.03
_
.10
.11
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
34
-------
Table C-5
FRACTION OF REGION 2 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES*
Other Chemical
Fabrication § Basic
Crude Petroleum §
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Pa
75
*
*
^01
.07
07
*
.01
0
.04
.15
.11
.09
.50
rt.
QO
*
*
.01
.01
*
*
.03
*
.06
.10
.13
.22
.43
S(
75
*
.01
.02
*
*
.04
.57
.18
.02
.16
)
90
*
*
*
.04
.59
.26
.03
.10
N
75
*
*
.02
.37
.O/
.43
.JO
D
90
*
*
.02
.36
.lb
.38
.08
Hi
75
.09
*
.02
*
.68
.19
j
90
.16
*
.04
.01
.02
.56
.21
a
75
it
.04
*
*
.95
3
90
*
.08
.01
.02
.01
.87
.01
»
75
.03
OS
.05
m
-
-
*
.70
-
.09
JD
90
1 -"3 ]
1)4
06
_
-
-
-
*
.58
.28
&
75
| .03 j
OS
04
.04
*
*
-
0
.20
.01
46
.14
3
90
04
f)Q
0
*
-
.10
.04
6(1
LK
75
03
*
*
01
-
.02
_
*
5
90
04
n
A
(I
*
0
-
.06
-
*
NO
75
*
in
A-Z
.17
*
-
.40
ns
03
>W
90
*
n?
fl-z
.IS
*
-
.34
26
*
M-
7b
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
W
90
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I
Vb
03
.02
45
.06
06
.02
71
.12
0
04
90
01
.01
17
.04
03
.01
10
.42
.18
o"*;
75
-
-
-
-
1.00
-
-S
90
-
-
-
-
1.00
-
^Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-6
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FRO! SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 2
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
Food Processing
I\ilp 5 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non- ferrous Metals
Fabrication 5 Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum f, Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 2
Part.
-
NG
NG
.75
.09
.12
NG
-
1.92
NA
1.17
.47
.82
-
1.67
.58
.68
SOx
-
NG
.46
-
NG
-
.18
-
NG
NG
.93
1.12
1.44
-
1.74
.70
1.09
^x
-
-
NG
NG
NG
-
-
-
NG
.77
1.06
1.11
2.33
-
1.01
.86
1.13
HC
-
-
NG
1.02
NG
-
-
NG
NG
NG
1.02
1.65
2.51
-
.46
.59
.56
CO
-
NG
NG
-
.98
-
_
_
NG
NG
1.30
2.39
2.69
.38
.81
.42
BOD
.38
.25
.06
.28
NG
.
_
_
_
NG
NG
.29
-
1.04
.35
SS
.26
.25
.05
.68
.01
NG
*
_
_
NA
it
2.63
_
.41
-
.24
.31
DS
_
_
.53
0
.01
NG
NG
0
_
_
_
1.98
_
-
-
NG
.54
NCSW
_
NG
1.41
_
1.65
1.72
NG
_
1.64
1.71
6.93
_
_
.12
2.02
M-W
_
.
_
.
_
.
_
_
_
_
_
-
I-S
1.54
1.64
1.28
7 25
1.51
2.66
1.68
11.7
NA
_
_
2.29
3.45
S-S
1.98
1.99
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
2.0
1.0
Q
1985
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx
HC
CO
2.0
1.0
WATER POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
BOD
SS
DS
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
SOLID WASTES
r—
1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-3. Region 3 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
37
-------
Table C-7
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 3
Air
Particulates
sox
NOX
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.48
1.05
1.17
.62
.52*
.36*
.04
.78*
1.67
1.52
2.15
1.58
1990
.51
1.04
1.21
.56
.48*
.39*
.05
.81*
1.67
1.60
2.55
1.72
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.16
.16
.12
.11
.11
.09
.31
.21
.12
.43
.15
.12
1985
.13
.15
.11
.10
.11
.09
.10
.23
.11
.21
.13
.11
1990
.12
.15
.11
.10
.11
.09
.08
.21
.11
.13
.13
.11
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
38
-------
Table C-8
FRACTION OF REGION 3 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Pulp 5 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication 5 Basic
Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum 5
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Pa
75
.01
*
*
.18
.04
A
,04
*
.01
.21
14
.04
.33
rt.
90
.01
*
*
.03
.02
*
.13
*
.03
.16
09
.15
.39
SI
75
*
.01
it
.02
.01
*
*
.02
.67
.21
.01
.04
T
90
*
.01
*
.01
.01
*
*
.02
.61
.29
.02
.03
f*
75
*
*
*
-
.01
.01
.02
.42
.13
.37
.05
3
90
*
A
*
-
.11
.01
.02
.42
.20
.32
.03
H
75
*
.06
.05
*
*
*
.03
.01
.01
.71
.13
T
90
*
.12
.03
A
.01
A
.05
.02
'.03
.59
.14
0
75
.01
it
A
.10
-
A
A
A
A
.87
A
0
90
.02
A
A
.22
-
A
.01
.02
.01
.70
A
H
75
.07
.12
.04
.13
A
r-
0
.01
A
.54
.10
5D
90
.06
.06
.01
.10
A
h
A
A
.64
.13
S
75
01
.01
A
.01
.64
.24
0
.03
A
,46
.04
5
90
.03
.05
A
.08
.02
.05
.17
A
.09
.47
.12
D.
75
.30
.03
.05
A
A
.06
A
5
yo
.08
A
A
Q
0
.08
*
NC
7b
.01
.02
A
.04
23
.06
.53
.10
.01
5W
90
.01
.02
A
.05
24
A
.06
.41
.21
A
M
75
-
-
1 00
-
-w
90
-
-
1 00
-
I
75
.03
.03
.11
.07
.20
.06
.01
.14
.34
0
.02
-S
90
.02
.02
.05
.06
.11
.04
.01
.09
.39
.20
.02
S
75
-
-
-
1.00
-S
90
-
—
-
~
1.00
+Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
;1900 Value as a Multiple of 19~5'
1 ood Processing
1'Vilp ;( Paper
Industrial Chemical s
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Sunn.1
Non- ferrous Metals
il-ahr icat ion ;i Basic Products
Coal Mini ix
Crude Petroleum f, Nat. lias Minim;
Petroleum Processing
1 lect ric lit i 1 it ics
Industrial Combustion
Munic ipal
1 ran sport at i on
l It her
lotal for Region 5
Part.
. j_
\G
NO,
. in
. j.i
NG
1 .05
Nil
I.JO
.38
.7,1
1 ."'•,
.lid
.51
SO
X
Nil
. ~o
xi ;
.40
.8"
NI;
NX;
l.Ul
.05
1.44
1 .88
. 1)6
1 . 04
NX)
X
-
Nt;
NX; J
M;
1 . 03
1 . 05
1.15
1.21
1 . '.)()
1 . 03
.82
i.:i
11C
-
NX;
1.08
. 52
NO
1 . 50
1.05
l.Oo
1.55
2.05
.40
.<>2
.50
CO
1.39
.v;
xc,
1.01
\c
x<;
1 . 35
2.(.1
2.tr
. 39
N<;
.48
lion
.54
.21
.OS
.28
xi ;
_
,v\ ,
-21J
NG
.40
.51
. 39
SS
. 25
.21
NG
.58
A
Nt;
NCi
.01
\A
A
1.49
.47
. 12
.05
as
-
A
.01
NX;
NX;
NG
1.2!
1 .12
_
_
.13
.81
NCSiV
i.-r
1.5:
XI",
1 .KO
1.7-J
NX;
NA
1 1.00
[_ 1.50
5.40
.21
1.67
M-1V
_
1.60
1.00
l-S
1.55
1.63
1.19
2 19
1.58
1.55
^ 0™
_
1.08
2.94
NA
2 "^
2.55
S-S
——-
1
"
K-
"~ /"
_
1 ."2
.
1.7;
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - Hr.i value is 0; 1900 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
20
1.0
Q1985
AIR POLLUTANTS
r—
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx NOx
HC
CO
2.0
1.0
0
WATER POLLUTANTS
£: 1975 LEVEL
BOD
SS
DS
4.0
3.0
20
1.0
SOLID WASTES
* 1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-4. Region 4 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
41
-------
Table C-10
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 4
Air
Particulates
sox
NOX
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.60
1.17*
1.27*
.64*
.51
.36*
.08
1.10*
1.40
2.12
2.74*
2.18*
1990
.67*
1.16*
1.32*
.58*
.47
.40*
.10
1.30*
1.45
2.61
3.27*
2.64*
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.21
.19
.16
.15
.16
.17
.20
.07
.27
.18
.21
.11
1985
.21
.20
.16
.15
.16
.17
.18
.11
.23
.12
.23
.13
1990
.21
.20
.16
.15
.16
.18
.16
.12
.22
.09
.23
.14
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
42
-------
Table C-ll
FRACTION OF REGION 4 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE+
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Pulp 6 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication 5 Basic
Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleun 6
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleun Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Part.
75
.04
.01
*
.02
.02
.01
.03
*
.02
.30
.07
.04
.44
90
.03
.01
*
.01
.01
.02
.08
*
.04
.12
.06
.12
.50
SO
75
.01
.03
*
.01
*
.01
.01
.76
.01
.03_
90
.01
.02
*
.01
*
.01
.01
.68
.02
.02
NO
75
*
*
-
.01
.01
.01
.43
AO
.43
.03
90
*
it
-
.01
.01
.01
.46
1 C
.34
.02
HC
75
*
.06
*
*
*
.01
.01
m
.78
.12
90
*
.13
*
.01
*
.01
.02
02
.65
.15
CO
75
.04
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
.93
*
90
.12
*
Ik
*
*
.01
.03
01
.78
*
BOD
75
.05
.3V
.06
.IT
U
*
*
.24
[.16
90
.06
.M
.01
.03
*
*
,46
.24
SS
75
.01
.10
*
.01
.32
*
.05
.26
0
.12
.01
fl7
.07
90
M
.19
*
.02
*
*
.01
.24
*
.08
35
.08
DS
75
.49
.01
.04
m
.01
.01
.17
.25
it
90
.56
*
*
*
0
,iy
.25
»
NCSW
75
,U4
.35
.01
.01
08
.02
.05
.41
.02
*
90
.36
.01
.01
14
.03
m
.07
.24
09
*
M-W
75
-
i nn
-
90
-
1 00
-
I-S
75
.03
13
.16
.05
.03
0?
*
.22
.33
0
.04
90
.02
06
.08
.04
.02
.01
*
.14
.45
.14
.05
1
S
75
_;
-
-
1.00
-S
90
-
-
1.00
^Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-12
ANALYSIS OF GKQWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FRCM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 4
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
Food Processing
Pulp f, Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non- ferrous Metals
l-'abrication fj Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum (, Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum (Voces sing
tlectric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Nkinicipal
Transpor ta t i on
Other
Total for Region 4
Part.
.52
1.36
NG
.16
.25
1.91
-
1.97
NG
1.53
2.64
.61
-
1.78
.76
.67
^x
-
1.43
.87
NG
NG
-
1.30
-
NG
.98
.93
1.05
1.88
1.96
.67
1.16
MX
-
NG
NG
NG
2.37
1.08
1.06
1.41
2.37
-
1.06
.89
1.32
HC
-
NG
1.23
NG
-
NG
2.34
NC;
.91
1.82
2.59
-
.47
.68
.58
CO
1.42
NG
NG
1.07
-
NG
NG
1.92
3.30
2.65
.39
NG
.47
BOL)
.44
71
.04
.10
NG
-
-
MA
-
NG
NG
-
.77
-
.59
.40
SS
.36
.26
NG
.45
*
NG
*
_
*
NA
*
1.70
-
.74
-
.17
.10
DS
-
.
1.46
*
.01
0
.01
0
1.45
_
_
1.27
_
-
_
NG
1.30
NCSW
_
1.50
1.46
1.56
1.96
2.37
2.26
NA
_
1.94
.86
5.82
_
NG
1.45
M-K
_
.
_
_
.
_
2.61
_
_
.
_
.
_
_
2.61
I-S
1.74
1.58
1.78
2.51
1.92
1.88
_
NG
_
_
2.10
4.43
MA
_
_
3.46
3.27
S-S
_
_
.
„
.
_
_
_
_
_
_
2.64
_
_
2.64
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
20
1.0
Q1985
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx NOx HC
CO
2.0
1.0
WATER POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
BOD SS
DS
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
SOLIDS WASTES
1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-5. Region 5 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
45
-------
Table C-13
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 5
Air
Particulates
sox
N0x
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.49
1.00
1.15
.62
.52*
.43*
.11
.57
1.45
1.91
2.00
1.72
1990
.51
.98
1.17
.55
.49*
.46*
.18*
.64
1.43
2.16
2.31
1.80
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.28
.33
.22
.20
.21
.16
.22
.34
.24
.08
.30
.27
1985
.23
.30
.20
.19
.22
.19
.20
.27
.20
.05
.24
.26
1990
.22
.30
.20
.19
.22
.19
.22
.27
.19
.03
.23
.25
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
46
-------
Table C-14
FRACTION OF REGION 5 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Pulp 5 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication § Basic
Products
Coal Minine
Crude Petroleum 5
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Pa
75
*
*
.14
.02
*
.03
*
.02
.29
.04
•3JL
rt.
90
*
.01
.03
.01
*
.11
*
.05
.18
12
.13
.3S_
3
75
*
*
.01
*
*
.03
.72
19
.01
.04
3
90
*
*
*
*
*
.03
.65
.27
.02
.02
N
75
*
-
.01
.01
.03
.39
.12
.38
.06
3
90
*
-
.01
.01
.03
.40
.18
.33
.04
H
75
.07
.02
.01
*
.03
.01
01
.72
.14
90
.13
.01
*
.01
*
.06
.02
03
.60
.15
O
75
.11
-
*
*
*
*
.87
*
3
90
.01
.25
-
*
.01
.0?
.01
.69
.01
H
75
.11
.21
.05
.06
*
-
0
.01
*
.44
.12
3D
90
.06
.09
.01
.04
*
.01
*
.55
.25
S
75
02
,Uo
.01
.01
.11
. bb
0
.11
.01
09
.04
5
90
0?
*
*
.01
.46
*
.06
,31
.04
D!
75
.78
.01
.03
.01
.08
*
90
.71
0
*
0
1 7
.12
*
NC
7b
*
.04
*
.04
1 "*
fl
.07
.61
16
.03
SW
90
*
.04
*
.05
1 C
A
.08
.50
16
.01
M
75
-
1 00
-
-w
90
-
1.00
-
I
75
.04
0'
.10
.02
.16
.07
.01
.16
.42
0
.01
-S
90
.03
01
.03
.02
.11
.04
.01
.12
.45
.17
.01
S
75
-
-
-
1.00
-S
90
_
-
-
1.00
+Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-15
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF SFiECTEi) TOLLU1ANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 5
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
Hood Processing
Pulp 5 Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication ii Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum (, Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
I ransportation
Other
Total for Region 5
Part.
NC
1.15
.73
.13
.27
NG
-
1.7S
NG
1.22
.32
.43
-
1.70
.57
.51
^v
NG
NG
NG
NG
NG
-
NG
NG
1.00
.90
1.43
1.84
.43
.98
™x
-
NG
NG
NG
-
-
-
1.67
1.00
1.14
1.20
1.71
-
1.03
.82
1.17
HC
-
-
NG
1.13
.26
-
-
.10
1.66
NG
1.05
1.39
1.83
-
.46
.59
.55
CO
_
1.28
NG
NG
1.07
-
-
NG
NG
1.31
2.23
1.79
.39
.63
.49
BOD
.25
.10
.05
.29
NG
NA
_
.29
NG
.58
_
.99
^ .46
SS
.21
.25
.03
.62
.01
NG
NG
*
NA
*
1.28
.61
.18
.18
DS
.59
0
.01
NG
NG
0
1.24
.
.95
NG
.64
NCSW
\G
1.44
NG
1.88
1.75
NG
.
NA
1.61
1.18
27
.50
1.43
M-W
2.16
2.16
I-S
1.58
, 1.70
.63
1.65
1.58
1.42
2.76
1.76
2.48
MA
1.88
2.31
• s-s
1.80
1.80
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
2.0
1.0 -
Q1985
H1990
:•>>
^^"^
:x':
AIR POLLUTANTS
—
1 1
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx
HC
CO
1.0
BOD
WATER POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
SS
DS
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
.0
x\
.
—
— •
:•:•;
:>:•
•:••:
:•:•!
X'
:::::
::.:i:.
:£:
::
•:•:
SOLID WASTES
: :|
| |:
-1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-6. Region 6 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
49
-------
Table C-16
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 6
Air
Particulates
sox
N0x
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
1.02*
1.77*
1.55*
.69*
.52*
.34
.10
.44
2.10*
3.82*
3.58*
1.78
1990
1.18*
1.98*
1.71*
.63*
.48*
.37*
.14
.57
2.56*
5.52*
4.89*
1.88
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.09
.06
.11
.12
.12
.10
.12
.08
.17
.15
.09
.10
1985
.15
.09
.14
.14
.12
.09
.10
.05
.21
.19
.13
.10
1990
.15
.11
.14
.14
.12
.09
.10
.05
.24
.15
.15
.10
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
50
-------
Table C-17
FRACTION OF REGION 6 POLLUTAOT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Other Chemical
Fabrication § Basic
Crude Petroleum §
Petroleun Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Jransportation
Other _^__ I
Part.
75
|7o4
.01
.01
.02
*
.08
.04
.03
.08
si
90
*
.01
*
.04
.01
.07
.07
.07
.11
35
sox
75
.01
07
.01
A
.32
*
*
.38
:07
.05
.03
OS
90
.01
.04
.01
.06
A
*
.18
.44
.21
.03
m
^x
75
*
*
*
.10
.12
.12
.14
.47
.m
90
*
*
.01
.05
.08
.30
.25
.30
.02
HC
75
.01
.05
*
A
.01
.10
*
A
.74
.09
90
-
.03
.10
*
A
.01
.17
.01
.03
.55
.09
CO
75
-
0?
*
m
A
*
.01
It
A
.95
*
90
-
.05
A
(IT
.01
A
.01
.01
.02
.02
.84
A
BOD
75
07
74
.14
IS
_
-
0
.
.03
A
.29
.09
90
06
.14
I)/
,17
_
-
_
.1)1
_
.02
A
s?
.12
ss
75
.01
1)6
.01
0?
A
.60
_
.01
0
.14
A
08
.04
90
,(Y/.
10
,1)1
09
0
A
_
A
.33
.01
.08
T4
.02
DS
75
-
-
.76
14
.01
.(IS
01
A
-
.02
A
90
-
-
,6S
0
A
0
A
0
A
-
.34
A
NCSW
75
-
.02
.21
.01
A
.16
.27
-
0
-
.28
.03
A
A
90
-
.01
.14
.01
A
.15
.30
-
.01
-
.10
.16
.11
.01
M-W
75
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.02
-
-
.97
90
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.04
-
-
.96
I-S
75
.04
.10
. 25
.11
01
.10
-
.01
-
.35
.02
0
.01
yo
.01
.03
.09
.06
01
.04
A
-
.12
.39
.23
.01
75
-
-
-
-
-
1.00
90
-
-
-
-
-
1.00
+Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-18
ANALYSIS OI; GROWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 6
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
l-'ood Processing
l\alp_ ;, Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Noil- ler runs Metals
1-abncut ion fj Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum J'( Nat. das Mininy
IVtroleiun Processing
l.lectric llti 1 ities
Industrial Combust ion
Miuiici|)al
TronsrKjrtat ion
Other
lotal for Region 0
Part.
-
.52
1 . 6 n
.99
.24
.41
2 . 36
2.43
2.00
1 . 05
2.26
3.00
-
1 . (>()
.81
1.18
SO
X
-
1.41
1.08
1.95
i NC
.35
\t;
,\G
.92
12.14
8.1(i
1.88
.63
1.98
^
-
NG
NC,
NG
7.18
. 85
1 . 05
4.14
3.07
1.07
.80
1 .7l_
HC
-
1.92
1.25
\G
NG
NG
.85
1 .117
12.01
5.85
.47
.62
.63
CO
-
1.41
2.06
1.95
1.21
NG
.82
.90
12.03
3.84
.42
NG
.48
BOD
.32
.21
.06
.29
NG
NA ,
.29
NG
.67
.50
. 37
SS
.21
. 23
.10
.71
A
NG
A
_
A
NA
.01
14.09
.61
_
.0')
.14
US
.
.48
0
1)1
0
.01
0
NG
,
10.22
NG
.57
NCS1V
1.49
1.70
1.8'
NG
2.7V!
2.84
NA
.93
12.77
950.56
,
1.10
2 . 56
M-1V
_
.
_
7 97
.
5.46
5.52
I-S
1.60
1.5"
1.83
2 . 54
2. "8
1.90
3. 10
1 ."()
92.65
NA
3.20
4.89
S-S
1 . 95
__
1 . 88
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
2.0
1.0
0
Q1985
F11990
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx
HC
CO
2.0
1.0
0
BOD
WATER POLLUTANTS
"1975 LEVEL
SS
DS
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
SOLID WASTES
1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-7. Region 7 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
53
-------
Table C-19
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 7
Air
Particulates
sox
NOX
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non - Combus tible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.66*
1.30*
1.33*
.61
.45
.34
.41*
.75*
1.89*
2.31
3.14*
2.08*
1990
.72*
1.30*
1.36*
.54
.40
.34*
.99*
.85*
1.95*
3.18
3.56*
2.07*
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.06
.06
.05
.05
.05
.05
.02
.02
.05
<.01
.06
.05
1985
.07
.07
.05
.05
.05
.05
.08
.02
.06
<.01
.08
.06
1990
.07
.07
.05
.05
.05
.05
.12
.02
.05
<.01
.08
.05
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
54
-------
Table C-20
FRACTION OF REGION 7 POLLUTANT DISCHARGED
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Pulp § Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication § Basic
Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum §
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleun Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion_
Municipal
Transportation
Other
^Totals may not add to
Part.
75
*
*
*
.07
*
.04
*
.02
.14
06
.05
.61
100 di
90
*
*
*
I .02
*
.13
.01
.03
.11
05
.12
.53
je to
SO
75
*
.01
*
.05
*
*
.03
.75
.10
.01
.04
rour*
90
*
.01
*
.01
*
*
.02
.76
.14
.02
.03
ding
NO
75
*
.01
-
.01
.02
.02
.27
.08
.52
.07
arror
90
*
.01
-
.01
.01
.02
.41
.11
.39
.05
s
HC
75
*
.06
*
*
*
.02
*
*
.78
.12
90
*
.13
*
.01
*
.03
.02
.01
.66
.13
CO
75
*
Ik
-
*
*
*
*
.99
*
90
*
*
-
ft
.01
.02
.01
.94
.01
BOD
75
.22
.01
.02
.01
-
0
*
*
.64
.10
90
07
.01
*
.01
-
*
*
.75
.15
SS
75
11
.01
.01
.01
.01
.01
*
.09
0
.23
.01
40
.13
90
.01
*
*
*
0
*
.75
*
.03
,18
.01
DS
75
.48
.23
.02
.03
A
,.01
.17
*
90
.48
0
*
*
0
.38
*
NCSW
75
*
.10
.01
*
*
.08
.31
.03
.09
90
*
.07
.01
*
•TO
*
*
.05
.37
.08
.05
- i ' •
M-W
75
-
1 00
_j
90
-
1 00
-
I-S
75
.15
*
.25
.06
.01
03
*
.15
.35
0
*
90
.07
*
.14
.03
.01
01
*
.07
.57
.10
*
S
75
-
-
-
1.00
-s
90
_
-
-
1.00
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-21
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 7
[1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
Food Processing
Pulp & Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication 'i Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum (, Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 7
Part.
-
NG
NG
NG
NG
.17
NG
2.12
l'J.90
1.10
.56
.60
-
1 . fab
.63
.72
^x
NG
.81
NG
NG
.35
NG
NG
.79
1.31
1.87
1.85
.86
1.30
NOX
-
NG
1.21
NG
-
-
f 7-7
.78
.90
2.09
1.81
1.01
.89
1.36
HC
-
-
NG
1.13
NG
NG
2.25
NG
.99
2.71
2.10
-
.45
.58
.54
CO
-
NG
NG
NC
-
-
-
NG
NC,
1.25
4 . 23
2.03
.38
.96
.40
BOD
1.20
.27
.07
.27
NG
-
-
-
NA
NG
NG
-
.10
-
.51
.54
SS
.13
.26
.24
.58
.01
0
NG
-
.04
NA
*
2.54
-
.46
-
.09
.99
DS
-
_
.37
0
*
0
NG
0
1.94
-
-
1.88
-
-
NG
.85
NCSIV
-
NG
1.39
1.54
NG
1.96
NG
NA
-
1.19
2.35
4.78
-
-
.97
1.95
M-W
.
-
_
-
-
-
-
3.18
-
-
3.18
I-S
1.55
NG
2.03
1.98
2.53
1.55
-
NG
-
-
1.63
5.82
NA
-
-
NG
3.56
S-S
_
_
.
_
_
_
-
_
-
-
2.07
-
_
2.07
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
30
20
1.0
O1985
^11990
AIR POLLUTANTS
r
— 1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
50
40
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
25
BOD
20
NOx HC CO
WATER POLLUTANTS
- 1975 LEVEL
SS
DS
SOLID WASTES
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
•
—
T-<
"777
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
1975 LEVEL
Figure C-8. Region 8 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
-------
Table C-22
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 8
Air
Particulates
SO
N0x
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.72*
1.23*
1.45*
.65*
.50
.57*
.14*
3.50*
2.46*
10.14*
2.01
1.58
1990
.84*
1.31*
1.64*
.60*
.46
.62*
.14
3.88*
2.96*
25.70*
2.37
1.62
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.03
.02
.03
.03
.03
.02
.03
.01
.03
.13
.02
.04
1985
.03
.02
.03
.03
.03
.04
.04
.06
.05
.41
.02
.03
1990
.03
.03
.04
.03
.03
.04
.03
.06
.05
.59
.02
.03
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
58
-------
Table C-23
FRACTION OF REGION 8 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE+
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Fabrication § Basic
Coal MiiuJiK
Crude Petroleum §
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Part.
75
.01
*
*
.10
*
.07
*
.04
.29
.09
.07
.27
90
.01^
*
it
.01
,07.
74
n?
.12
.13
.09
.14
.23
SO
75
*
.01
.40
*
*
.10
.28
.09
.02
.Oft
90
*
.01
.10
.04
*
.14
.33
.33
.03
.03
^x
75
*
.01
02
.05
.28
.08
.51
.06
90
*
.10
01
.08
.24
.20
.33
.03
HC
75
.05
*
*
*
.03
*
*
.80
.10
90
.10
*
.02
*
.09
.01
.03
.65
.10
CO
75
.01
-
.02
*
*
.01
*
*
.96
*
90
01
-
.04
.01
*
.01
.02
.02
.88
*
BOD
75
.04
*
0
.01
0
.58
.14
90
.02
OX
*
_
-
.12
.01
*
.70
.13
SS
75
.64
.III
*
.27
*
*
_
.35
.13
.01
.12
.05
90
•
,()•/
*
1 .01 ]
0
*
_
.29
*
.06
.bo
.04
DS
75
,?1
(II
*
.01
.Si
-
.18
*
90
A
0
A
0
*
0
.94
-
.05
*
NCSW
75
.01
*
.14
.01
-
0
.19
.42
.04
.05
90
*
flc
*
m
.14
*
-
.49
.06
.17
.IS
.01
M-W
75
-
-
-
-
-
.11
0
-
.89
90
-
-
-
-
-
.04
.77
-
.19
I-S
75
13
.03
03
.01
13
.07
-
*
-
.42
.17
0
*
90
10
.02
02
.01
06
.06
*
-
.27
.20
.27
*
S-S
75
-
-
-
-
1.00
90
-
-
-
-
1.00
10
*Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
*Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-24
ANALYSIS OF GROHirm OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION S
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
en
CD
1-ood Process ijv
Pulp i. Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum t) Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 8
Part.
.52
NC
NG
.08
NG
2.71
38.51
2.52
.39
.76
1.66
. 73
.84
SO
X
NG
.53
-
NG
.34
14.98
.91
1.82
1.53
4.81
-
1.89
.42
1.31
NO
X
.
NC,
NC
NG
-
22.34
1.08
2.88
1.40
4.41
-
1.08
.71
1.64
1C
_
NG
1.13
NG
-
NG
4.61
NG
1.47
1.83
5.34
-
.49
.58
.60
CO
1.40
NG
-
.95
4.89
NG
1.07
3.76
5.18
.42
NG
.46
BOD
.06
.24
NG
NG
NG
NA
_
.31
NA
75
.59
.62
SS
.04
7-7
NG
NC
.01
NG
NG
.12
*
1.57
.68
.10
.14
DS
.96
0
.01
0
NG
0
6.89
1.13
NG
3.88
NCSW
1.48
1.65
NC
1.78
2.27
_1.14
NA
1.00
1.24
12.52
76
2.96
M-W
-
10.39
NA
r •'y
2 S 70
I-S
1.71
1.51
1 69
1.70
1.06
1.94
NG
2 84
NG
S-S
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
20
1.0
0
Q
1985
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
3ARTICULATES SOx NOx HC
CO
2.Or
1.0
n
BOD SS
WATER POLLUTANTS
- 1975 LEVEL
DS
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
SOLID WASTES
1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-9. Region 9 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
61
-------
Table C-25
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 9
Air
Particulates
sox
N0x
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
CS-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.79*
.70
1.20
.64*
.51
.36*
.21*
.55
1.97*
1.57
1.67
1.81
1990
.86*
.72
1.31*
.57
.47
.38*
.23*
.84*
2.37*
2.16
1.92
1.88
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.05
.07
.08
.12
.12
.11
.04
.01
.05
.01
.04
.13
1985
.06
.05
.08
.12
.13
.11
.08
.01
.06
<.01
.03
.13
1990
.06
.05
.08
.12
.13
.11
.06
.01
.07
<.01
.03
.13
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
62
-------
Table C-26
FRACTION OF REGION 9 POLLUTANT DISCHARGE
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Pulp § Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication 6 Basic
Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum 6
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Pai
75
.01
*
.0]
.03
.13
.03
*
*
.07
.03
.04
.16
.49
ft.
90
.01
*
.01
.02
*
.01
*
.09
.07
.11
.30
.38
3
75
*
.02
.70
*
.09
.06
.07
.03
.03
\
90
.01
.19
*
.10
.25
.34
.07
.03
N
75
-
.01
.05
.14
.07
.68
.05
3r
90
-
.01
.04
.19
.15
.59
.03
HI
75
.06
*
*
.03
*
*
.80
.11
90
jilL
*
.06
.01
.01
.69
.12
C
75
*
.01
-
*
*
*
.98
it
0
90
,U1
*
.02
-
.01
.01
*
.95
*
B
75
.08
nf.
.03
-
.01
r*
.73
.08
3D
90
.08
n^
.02
-
.01
*
.20
S
75
.07
(If!
.01
.02
.01
*
0
.30^
*
*T
.10
S
90
.04
05
.03
*
0
*
*
.04
7d
^08
D
75
.48
.14
.10
.10
*
.11
-
.06
.01
S
90
.31
0
*
*
0
*
~
.69
*
NC
75
.01
.13
.01
.01
AK
.03
.29
^04^
*
jn.
sw
90
m
.08
*
*
42
.02
.15
.18
.15
*
M
75
-
1.00
_;
_^
-w
90
_
1.00
.
__;
— - - • -••
I
75
.07
.04
.05
.06
.05
.10
.02
cq
0
.02
-S
90
.06
.03
.05
J)_6_
.04
10
^02
49
i n
^01_
_.03_
S
75
-
-
i on
_^
-s
90
-
-
.
1.00
_-
+Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
"Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-27
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISHCARGES
FRCM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 9
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
en
-t
Food Processing
Pulp ti Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
I-abrication {, Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum $ Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 9
Part.
-
.51
NG
.75
.12
.13
.12
-
2.12
NG
1.05
1.65
2.28
-
1.67
.68
.86
^x
-
1.38
.40
NG
NG
-
.19
-
NG
NG
.79
3.26
3.64
-
1.88
.68
.72
™*
-
-
NG
NG
NG
-
-
-
NG
1.08
.90
1.71
2.95
-
1.13
.82
1.31
HC
-
-
NG
1.14
NG
-
-
NG
NG
NG
.96
3.50
3.96
-
.50
.64
.57
CO
-
1.38
NG
NG
1.15
-
-
NG
NG
1.12
3.45
NG
-
.46
NG
.47
BOD
.39
.21
.09
.29
NG
_
_
_
-
.26
NG
_
.34
-
.93
.38
SS
.18
22
.20
.65
.03
0
NG
NA
*
13.6
.39
_
.18
23
DS
55
0
.01
0
NG
0
NA
9.76
.01
.84
NCSW
1.46
1.46
1.62
1.91
2.08
1.49
1.21
11.98
72.21
NG
2 37
M-W
2.16
2.16
I-S
1.76
1.53
1.88
2.08
1.63
1.86
2 25
1.61
28 85
NA
7 f.7
1.92
S-S
1.88
1.88
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
2.0
1.0
Q1985
m 1990
AIR POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVEL
PARTICULATES SOx
NOx
HC
CO
2.Or
1.0
WATER POLLUTANTS
1975 LEVELS
n
BOD
SS
DS
4.0i-
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
SOLID WASTES
!—
1975 LEVEL
NCSW MINING INDUSTRIAL SEWAGE
WASTE SLUDGE SLUDGE
Figure C-10. Region 10 discharges of pollutants in 1985 and 1990
relative to 1975 discharges.
65
-------
Table C-28
FUTURE DISCHARGE OF SELECTED POLLUTANTS
FOR REGION 10
Air
Particulates
sox
N0x
HC
CO
Water
BOD
SS
DS
Solid Waste
Non-Combustible
Solid Waste
(NCSW)
Mining Waste
(M-W)
Industrial Sludge
(I-S)
Sewage Sludge
(S-S)
1985 and 1990
Values
as Multiples
of 1975
1985
.74*
1.08
1.21
.65*
.51
.25
.33*
.17
2.23*
2.19
1.74
2.39*
1990
.82*
.96
1.22
.57
.46
.28*
.67*
.19
2.25*
3.20
1.89
2.77*
Regional Share of
National Total
1975
.02
.01
.02
.03
.04
.10
.02
.01
.02
.01
.02
.03
1985
.03
.01
.02
.04
.04
.07
.07
<.01
.03
.01
.02
.04
1990
.03
.01
.02
.03
.04
.07
.09
<.01
.02
<.01
.01
.04
*Greater than national pollutant ratio
66
-------
Table C-29
FRACTION OF REGION 10 POLLUTANT DISCHARGED
CONTRIBUTED BY SELECTED SOURCE CATEGORIES
Food Processing
Industrial Chemicals
Other Chemical
Products
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication § Basic
Products
Crude Petroletm
Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
.13 .03 .06 .03
*Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding errors
•Less than 0.005; greater than 0
-------
Table C-30
ANALYSIS OF GROWIH OF SELECTED POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
FROM SELECTED SOURCES IN REGION 10
(1990 Value as a Multiple of 1975)
CD
CO
Food Processing
Pulp § Paper
Industrial Chemicals
Otlier Chemical Products
Steel
Crushed Stone
Non-ferrous Metals
Fabrication & Basic Products
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum 5 Nat. Gas Mining
Petroleum Processing
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Municipal
Transportation
Other
Total for Region 10
Part.
-
.67
1.23
NG
1.59
.27
NG
-
2.11
1107.88
1.31
NG
1.07
-
1.63
.70
.82
SOx
-
1.31
1.24
-
NG
-
.30
-
NG
NG
1.12
NG
2.64
-
1.85
.24
.96
^x
-
-
NG
NG
NG
-
-
-
NG
3.63
1.75
NG
2.74
-
1.06
.54
1.22
HC
-
-
NG
1.01
NG
-
-
NG
NG
NG
2.04
NG
3.41
-
.48
.59
.57
CO
-
1.31
NG
-
NG
-
-
-
NG
NG
1.81
NG
3.43
-
.41
NG
.46
BOD
.41
.11
NG
.26
NG
-
-
-
-
-
NG
NG
-
.57
-
1.22
.28
SS
.19
.23
NG
.65
NG
NG
NG
.
.02
NA
*
NG
.
.77
-
.22
.67
DS
.
-
.02
0
.02
0
.05
0
1.74
_
.
S.93
.
-
-
NG
.19
NCSW
_
1.36
1.29
1.39
2.05
2.17
1.20
_
-
.
4.01
NG
24.96
-
-
1.00
2.25
M-W
_
_
_
_
_
.
_
_
1.36
_
_
_
_
_
_
6.58
3.20
I-S
1.90
1.45
1.63
1.76
2.44
1.72
_
NG
_
_
1.85
NG
NA
_
-
.93
1.89
S-S
_
_
.
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
2.77
_
_
2.77
Key: NG - Not given when sector accounts for less than .005 of regional residual release
for both years examined
NA - 1975 value is 0; 1990 value positive
* - Less than .005; greater than 0
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
F.PA-600/9-78-011
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Environmental Outlook, 1977 National. Regional,
and Sectoral Trends and Forecasts 1975, 1985,
1990
5. REPORT DATE
July 1978
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHORtS)
Peter W. House
Roger D. Shull
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
}. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Research and Development
Washington, B.C. 20460
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
1RW103
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Research and Development
Washington, B.C. 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
1977 Final Report
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/00
18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
This document contains projections of residuals from various energy and
industrial activities which may enter the environment as an outcome of implementing
the President's National Energy Plan (NEP) issued on April 29, 1977, The Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) was the comprehensive simulation model used
to provide the projections.
The projections encompass regional breakdowns by source for various pollutants
in air, water, and solid wastes, including toxic substances. The trends are ex-
pressed as 1985 and 1990 multiples of their respective 1975 values.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
COSATI Field/Group
Ecology Solid Waste
Energy Toxic Substances
Environment Residuals
Environmental Engineering
Industry
Pollution
Air Quality
iinergy Demand "
Chemical Production
Iron and Steel
Pulp and Paper
Electric Utilities
Petroleum, Natural Gas
Food Processing
Coal Mining
Transportation Trends
~"
2C
6F
HE
11F
11H
111
11L
18.
(This Report)
Release Unlimited
Unclassified
SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
21. NO. OF PAGES
72
22. PRICE
Unclassifies
2220-1 (9-73)
69
*ILl«raUIBIT«mwOfFKE, 1978-757-140/1456 fegtai No. SHI
------- |