THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF
ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR NEW
COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DRAFT
June, 1979
Submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency
and the
Deportment of Energy
ICF INCORPORATED 1850 K Street. Northwest,
Suite 950. Washington. D C 20006
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET
OF ANALYSES OF
ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DRAFT
June, 1979
Submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency
and the
Department of Energy
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF
ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
INTRODUCTION
This report was prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and
the Department of Energy (DOE).
The findings of analyses of alternative new source performance standards
are presented herein.
BACKGROUND
These analyses are the fourth in a set of sequential analyses. The first
three sets were reported in:
• Effects of Alternative New Source Performance Stan-
dards for Coal-Fired Utility Boilers on the Coal
Markets and on Utility capacity Expansion Plans
(prepared by EPA and DOE by ICF, dated September,
1978, but reporting analyses conducted between
October 1977 and April 1978).
• Further Analyses of Alternative New Source Perfor-
mance Standards for New Coal-Fired Powerplants
(prepared for EPA and DOE by ICF, dated September
1978, and reporting analyses conducted between
April and September 1978).
• Still Further Analyses of Alternative New Source
Performance Standards for New Coal-Fired Power-
plants (prepared for EPA and DOE by ICF, dated
January 1979, and reporting analyses conducted
between September and December 1978).
This report — The Final Set of Analyses of Alternative New Source Perfor-
mance Standards for New Coal-Fired Powerplants — reports analyses conducted
between December, 1978 and May, 1979.
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
All the assumptions and scenario specifications employed for the analyses
reported in Still Further Analyses of Alternative New Source Performance Stan-
dards for New Coal-Fired Powerplants were employed herein, except:
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
-2-
• Some of the scrubber cost estimates were revised by
EPA to reflect the costs associated with dry scrub-
bing (versus wet scrubbing which had been assumed
to be the only control technology for previous
analyses),
• EPA developed several new specifications of alter-
native standards, and
• A few forecasts were made for 2010 to reflect the
effect of the alternative standards on emissions
after all existing coal-fired capacity is retired.
SCRUBBER COSTS
EPA decided to include considerations of "dry scrubbing" in this set of
analyses. In previous analyses, all the cost estimates were developed for "wet
scrubbing." EPA judges dry scrubbing can achieve up to 70 percent removal on
low sulfur coals but has not been demonstrated to work well on high sulfur
coals. For low sulfur coals, the cost estimates (provided by EPA) for dry
scrubbing are considerably lower.than those for wet scrubbing. See Table 1.
TABLE 1
COMPARISON OF SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES*
(1978 $'s)
Dry Scrubbing Wet Scrubbing Dry Scrubbing Wet Scrubbing
(33% Removal) (33% Removal) (70% Removal) (70% Removal)
Capital ($/kw)
O&M (mills/kwh)
Heat Rate Penalty
Capacity Penalty
Annualized Costs**
Emissions Rate
32
1.3
0.
0,
5
,5
2.1
0.54
50
0.8
2.1
0.54
38
1.7
0.
0.
2.6
0.24
85
1.4
2.2
2.2
3.8
0.24
* On coal with 0.4 pounds of sulfur per million Btu.
** Sixty-five percent annual capacity factor; 12.5 percent capital charge
rate.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
-3-
However, EPA estimates indicate dry scrubbing has about the same annualized
costs as wet scrubbing at 33 percent removal. At 70 percent removal dry
scrubbing is estimated to be about one-third cheaper (on an annualized cost
basis) than wet scrubbing.
These cost estimates for dry scrubbing are the critical set of assumptions
leading to the finding that 70 percent removal is more cost-effective than
lower percent removals, such as 33 percent. This is because, as shown in
Table 1, the emissions drop by over a factor of two when moving from 33 per-
cent to 70 percent, whereas the costs are estimated to increase by less than
25 percent.
ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS
EPA requested that fourteen alternative standards be assessed. These
alternatives were specified in terms of:
• alternative ceilings (i.e., maximum emission rates
for high sulfur coals),
• alternative scrubber costs (i.e., wet scrubbing
versus dry scrubbing), and
• alternative levels of partial or variable scrub-
bing* for lower sulfur coals, ranging from no par-
tial scrubbing (i.e., full control) to alternative
floors (i.e., maximum emission rates for low sulfur
coals) to alternative minimum percent removals.
The alternatives that were analyzed are listed on Table 2.
The national emissions and costs in 1995 for each of these standards is
presented in Table 3 and plotted on Figure 1.
Other forecast measures for each of these standards is briefly summarized
in Appendix A.
The specific emission rates and costs specified by EPA for each coal-type
are presented in Appendix B.
A more detailed summary of the forecasts for some of these is presented in
Appendix C.
* EPA refers to a minimum of 70 percent removal as "variable" scrubbing and
to 33 percent removal as "partial" scrubbing.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
-4-
TABLE 2
ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS
Dry Scrubbing* Ceiling** Partial or Variable Scrubbing***
A Yes 0.8 None — 90% Removal
B No 1.0 None — 90% Removal
C Yes 0.8 .55 Floor or 50 Percent Minimum Removal
D Yes 1.0 .55 Floor or 50 Percent Minimum Removal
E No 1.0 .55 Floor
F Yes .55 .55 Floor or 70 Percent Minimum Removal
G Yes .55 .55 Floor or 33 Percent Minimum Removal
H Yes 0.7 70 Percent Minimum Percent Removal
I yes 0.7 33 Percent Minimum Percent Removal
j Yes 0.9 0.50 Floor or 70 Percent Minimum Removal
K NO 1.0 0.50 Floor or 70 Percent Minimum Removal
L Yes 1.0 0.50 Floor or 70 Percent Minimum Removal
M Yes 1.0 None ~ 90% Removal
N Not Specified
O Yes 1.0 .55 Floor or 33 Percent Minimum Removal
* Dry scrubbing specified for lower sulfur coals only; wet scrubbing
always assumed for higher sulfur coals.
** Specified in terms of annual average emissions rate; EPA assumes that
annual average is about 20 percent lower than a 30-day average maxi-
mum limit.
*** Washing credits allowed in all alternatives.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-5-
TABLE 3
SUMMARY OF NATIONAL EMISSIONS AND COSTS FOR 1995
OF ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS
National National Incremental Increase in Oil
Alternative Emissions Annual!zed Costs ^ Consumption
Standard (10 tons/year) ($ 10 /yr.-1978 $'s) (10 barrels per^ /day)
Wet-Dry^'
A 20.70 4.43 450 526
B 20.58 4.10 433 434
C 20.64 2.91 209 285
D 20.64 2.90 209 285
E 20.78 3.18 255 331
F 20.19 3.21 256 332
G 20.57 2.97 211 287
H 20.63 3.15 208 284
I 21.23 2.69 208 284
J 20.45 3.20 210 286
K 20.55 3.64 204 340
LV 20.45 3.25 210 286
Ml/ 20.72 4.42 480 526
N - - -
O 20.85 3.00 207 283
I/ From base case (1.2 pounds) using wet scrubbing costs, reported
in Still Further Analyses of Alternative New Source Performance
Standards for New Coal-Fired Powerplants (prepared for EPA and
DOE by ICF, dated January 1979) and summarized in Appendix C.
2/ From base case (1.2 pounds) using dry scrubbing costs, summarized
in Appendic C and D.
3_/ This is alternative EPA selected.
4/ This is alternative EPA had proposed.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30,
1979
-6-
ANNUALlZEn COSTS
($ 10 /Year)
FIGURE 1
NATIONAL EMISSIONS AND COSTS FOR
ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS IH 1995
«B
4.0 •
M
J»
H.
3.0
D
2.0
1.0
20.2
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.U
21.2
SO EMISSIONS
(10 Tons/Year)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
-7-
The following general conclusions can be drawn from Table 3 and Figure 1:
• The alternative EPA selected (i.e., L) is amongst
those with the lowest estimated increase in oil
consumption. The full scrubbing alternatives
(i.e., A, B, and M) were estimated to result in
approximately double this increase. See Table 3.
• The alternative EPA selected (i.e., L) is one of
the most cost-effective. On Figure 1,
— The alternatives to the right and above L
are less cost-effective. Both emissions and
costs are higher. These are the full scrub-
bing options (i.e., A, B, M) and a scrubbing
option without dry scrubbing (i.e., K).
— The alternatives to the right and below L
are slightly less costly, but result in more
emissions, particularly the 33 percent
removal alternatives (i.e., I).
-- The alternative to the left (i.e., F) is
more cost-effective on these measures. This
alternative has a low ceiling (i.e., .55
pounds of sulfur dioxide per million Btu on
an annual average basis versus 1.0 for
alternative L). It was not selected because
EPA wanted to ensure that a substantial por-
tion of Appalachian and Midwestern high sul-
fur reserves were not prohibited from the
new powerplant market. (EPA is reporting
this reserve analysis separately.)
• The "variable" scrubbing options (i.e., 70 percent
minimum removal) have lower national emissions than
the full scrubbing options. This is because the
forecasts indicate "variable" scrubbing with annual
emissions rates in the range of .24 to .50 pounds
would be substituted for full scrubbing with annual
emissions rates in the range of .77 to 1.00.
— Such substitution is forecast to occur East
of the Mississippi, where emissions under
variable scrubbing (i.e., L) are forecast to
be less than under full scrubbing (e.g., M).
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-8-
— West of the Mississippi the variable scrub-
bing also substitutes for full-scrubbing,
but the full-scrubbing emission rates are
lower (generally in the range of 0.08 to
0.39) , resulting in slight increases in
forecasted emissions in the West.
— Full scrubbing emission rates are higher in
the East than in the West because the
cheapest coals (which would be burned under
full scrubbing) are high sulfur coal in the
East and low to medium sulfur coals in the
West.
There is essentially no forecasted increase in
emissions in increasing the ceiling from 0.9 (i.e.,
J) to 1.0 (i.e., L) because only raw coals with a
sulfur content greater than 4.5 pounds of sulfur
per million Btu would be affected, and only a small
portion of the high sulfur reserves have a sulfur
content greater than 4.5 pounds.
The effects of the alternative EPA selected on coal
production are:
reduce Western coal consumed in the East by
about one-third or 30 million tons in 1995
from the current standard; increase it by
about 15 million tons in 1995 from full
control.
increase Midwestern production by about 60
million tons, reduce Appalachian production
by about 40 million tons (primarily Central
Appalachian low sulfur coal), and reduce
Western production by about 30 million tons,
all relative to the current standard in
1995; relative to full control in 1995,
reduce Midwestern production by about 40
million tons, increase Appalachian produc-
tion by about 20 million tons, and increase
Western production by about 10 million tons.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-9-
2010 FORECASTS
EPA requested that some forecasts for 2010 be made to assess the magnitude
of the differences between alternative standards in 2010 relative to the 1985-
1995 period.
The important assumptions for 2010 were specified as follows:
• electricity growth rate (1995-2010) 3.0%
• nuclear capacity (2010) 462.5 GW
• oil price (2010) (1975 $'s) $23.55/barrel
• non-utility demand growth rates (1995-2010)
industrial 1%
metallurgical 1%
export 3%
residential/commercial 0
— synthetics 0.3%
• existing coal capacity retirements All Retired by 2010
• new technologies None
Also, a lower nuclear capacity forecast was made for 2010, assuming 239.0 GW
rather than 462.5 GW.
Three alternative standards were assessed; (a) the current standard, (b) a
.55 Ibs. SC>2/106 Btu emission limit using dry scrubbing costs, and (c) a
full 90 percent control (with washing credit) requirement with a 0.55 pound
ceiling.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-10-
The national emissions and costs measures are summarized in Table 4 below,
Figure 2 on the next page, and in greater detail in Appendix D:
TABLE 4
FORECASTED NATIONAL EMISSIONS AND
COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE MEASURES
2010
1995 Base Nuclear Lower Nuclear
Emissions (106 tons/yr.)
Base Case (1.2 Ibs.) 23.82 20.80 27.98
.55 Ibs. Limit 20.42 10.89 14.20
90% Removal (.55 Ceiling) 19.99 9.26 11.42
Change in Annualized Costs
($loVyr.-i978 $'s)
Base Case (1.2 Ibs.) -
.55 Ibs, Limit 3.04 8.00 10.22
90% Removal (.55 Ceiling) 4.70 14.10 18.94
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Base Case (1.2 Ibs.) - -
.55 Ib. Limit 895 808 742
90% Removal (.55 Ceiling) 1,227 1,222 1,143
The national emissions drop substantially from 1995 under the two tighter
standards. This is because existing powerplants with higher emissions rates
are being replaced by new powerplants with lower emissions rates.
The absolute differences (in both emissions and costs) between the two
tighter standards grow larger as they are applied to more new powerplant capa-
city (being built over time and/or in substitution for nuclear). However, the
change in annualized cost per ton removed remains relatively constant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-11-
FIGURE 2
NATIONAL EMISSION TRENDS
SO EMISSIONS
(10 Tons/Year)
25.0 -
20.0 -
15.0 -
10.0 ••
5.0 ••
Base-Low Nuclear
Base
0.55 Limit-Low Nuclear
90% Removal-Low Nuclear
0.55 Limit
90% Removal
1975
1985 1990 1995
2010
YEAR
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
0>
a
x
>
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
APPENDIX A
BRIEF SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVES
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
I. 1985, 1990, and 1995 A-la-lc
Dry Scrubbing; Full Control With Washing Credits;
0.8 Ibs. Ceiling (A)
Wet Scrubbing; Full Control With Washing Credits;
and 1.0 Ibs. Ceiling (B)
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
0.8 Ibs. Ceiling and 0.55 or 50% Floor (C)
2. 1985, 1990, and 1995 A-2a-2b
Dry Scrubbing, 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 or 50% Floor (D)
Wet Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 Floor (E)
3. 1985, 1990, and 1995 A-3a-3b
Dry Scrubbing; 70% Minimum Removal Requirement;
0.55 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Limit (F)
4. 1995 A-4a-4b
Dry Scrubbing; 0.55 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Annual Emission
Limitation, 33% Minimum Removal (G)
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
0.7 Ibs. Ceiling; 70% Minimum Removal (H)
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
0.7 Ibs. Ceiling and 33% Minimum Removal (I)
5. 1985, 1990, and 1995 A-5a-5b
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
0.9 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 Floor; 70% Minimum Removal (J)
6. L990 and 1995 A-6a-6b
Wet Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
L.O Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ibs. Floor; 70% Minimum
Removal (K)
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor; 70% Minimum
Removal (L)
7. 1990 and 1995 A-7a-7b
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling (M)
Dry Scrubbing; 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.55 Ib. Floor; 33% Minimum
Removal (0)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DRAFT
May,30 1979
Page .\-la
o
Tl
o
o
3D
•o
o
3D
National SO2 Emissions
(106 Tons/Year)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
MS PS
AflSPS
Total
Present Value of National 502
Emissions (106 Tons)
Regional SO2 Enisaions
(106 TonsAear)
Bast
Bast Bortfa Central
Bast South Central
Vest north Central
West South Central
Heat
Total
National SO2 Emissions Rate
(Iba./I06 etii)
011/tSas
Coal
Existing
K3PB
MSPS
Total
Regional SO2 Enissions Rate
(Ibs./lO* Btu)
Boat
East north Central
Bast South Central
Neat Borth Central
Nest Sooth Central
Vest
Total
Oil/Cas ConouBptlon
(1015 Btu/Year)
Powerplants
Coal Transportation
Total
Dry Scrubbing
Full Control With Washing
Credits and 0.8 Ibs. Ceiling
(A)
Wet Scrubbing
Full Control With Washing
Credits and 1.0 Ibs. Ceiling
(B)
Dry Scrubbing
Partial Control;
90% Removal With
Washing Credits 0.8 Ibs.
and 0.55 or 50% Floor
Ceilir.s
1985
2.57
17.38
U.89
2.11
0.38
1990
1.92
18.07
14.41
2.08
1.57
1995
1.45
19.25
13.93
2.24
3.08
1985
2.58
17.26
14.78
2.11
0.38
1990
1.91
18.05
14.39
2.08
1.58
1995
1.43
19.15
13.85
2.16
3.14
1965
2.55
17.46
14.92
2.13
0.41
1990
1.81
18.38
14.56
2.16
1.66
1995
1.24
19.41
13.94
2.19
3.28
19.99
20.70
19.84
19.96
20.58
20.01
20.20
20.64
6.57
5.62
2.84
2.35
1.72
0.86
19.95
0.840
2.207
2.781
1.119
O.S98
1.824
1.773
2.558
2.299
2.593
1.022
0.706
1.824
6.131
0.179
6.310
6.59
5.59
3.01
2.29
1.62
0.89
19.99
0.827
1.835
2.806
1.117
0.5S2
1.642
1.679
2.417
1.994
2.262
0.858
O.S89
1.642
4.649
0.276
4.«5
6.96
5.67
3.18
2.27
1.68
0.94
20.70
0.809
1.SS4
2.889
1.120
0.553
1.460
1.553
2.267
1.760
1.945
0.740
0.48O
1.4(0
3.585
0.349
».934
6.50
5.63
2.84
2.28
1.73
0.85
19.84
0.838
2.190
2.759
1.117
0.640
1.811
1.749
2.569
2.298
2.522
1.022
0.703
1.811
6.150
0.183
6.S33
6.59
5.60
3.02
2.25
1.62
0.89
19.96
0.829
1.828
2.800
1.117
0.551
1.639
1.661
2.421
1.997
2.227
0.857
0.579
1.639
4.620
0.277
4.897
6.90
5.63
3.18
2.24
1.69
0.94
20.58
0.807
1.541
2.875
1.117
0.554
1.450
1.539
2.248
1.759
1.930
0.739
0.481
1.450
3.550
0.352
6.56
5.62
2.82
2.40
1.74
0.87
20.01
0.846
2.208
2.800
1.118
0.601
1.832
1.771
2.567
2.322
2.656
1.020
0.721
1.832
6.028
0.181
fl.llfe
6.50
5.56
2.98
2.43
1.74
1.00
20.20
0.854
1.849
2.822
1.117
0.583
1.674
1.659
2.414
2.008
2.492
0.892
0.666
1.674
4.244
0.2T7
4.521
6.65
5.55
3.09
2.43
1.79
1.13
20.64
0.799
1.557
2.925
1.106
0.574
1.473
1.480
2.245
1.713
2.087
0.807
0.594
1.473
3.099
0.353
3.452
-------
SUNMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OP ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DRAFT
May 30, 19
page A-lb
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($109Aear)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Costs ($109)
Dry Scrubbing
Full Control With Washing
Credits and 0.8 Iba. Ceiling (A)
Wet Scrubbing
Full Control With Washing
Credits and 1.0 Ibs. Ceiling (B)
1985
0.34
0.33
1990
2.25
1.67
1995
4.43
2.55
1985
0.28
0.27
1990
1.93
1.44
1995
4.10
2.38
4.44
25.55
45.04
3.66
21.93
41.38
Change In Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed (S/Ton)
Case Year Basis
843.5
1.325.4
1,421.0
1,011.2
1,269.3
1,322.3
o
Tl
o
o
30
s
Coal Production
(106 TonsAear)
Appal sent a
Midwest
northern Great Plains
Neat
Total
Western Coal Consuaed in Bast
(10* TonsAear)
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity <«)
Cwulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (OR)
Existing
Retrofit
HSPS
AHSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
Bast North Central
Bast South Central
Nest North Central
Nest South Central
Nest
Total
Sludge Generated
(10* TonsAear)
Energy Penalty
(10*5 BtuAear)
388.8
273.1
264.9
162.2
1,089.0
401.0
392.0
455.5
183.9
1,432.4
464.9
487.7
627.8
180.2
1,760.5
390.3
268.9
274.0
158.7
1,091.9
399.3
390.4
458.7
187.7
1.436.1
462.8
486.7
632.9
182.3
1,764.8
60.6
102.3
17.25
0.07
60.6
54.7
62.4
63.3
195.0
34.45
0.32
325.1
56.00
0.51
82.8
16.90
0.06
173.5
33.22
0.26
58.9
301.8
275.4
5.7
41.8
31.4
23.4
23.4
390.4
500.4
5.7
44.6
32.7
112.0
112.0
520.2
775.0
5.7
44.2
33.6
241.7
241.7
301.2
276.2
5.7
24.3
29.4
23.5
23.5
390.9
502.2
5.7
24.3
30.3
113.2
113.2
521.1
777.3
5.7
24.8
30.7
243.4
243.4
304.6
55.09
0.54
a
o
-------
SUWARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR OOAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DKAFT
May 3C
Dry Scrubbing
Partial Control; 90* Removal With
Washir.g Credits;O.Blbs. Ceiling and 0.55 or 50*. rloor (~)
1985 1990 1995
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute (S109/Vear)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Costs ($109)
0. 27
0.26
3.55
1.40
1.03
16.04
2.91
1.67
29.56
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
781.5
946.9
918.4
Coal Production
(106 Itms/Year)
Appalachia 391.3
Midwest 267.6
Northern Great Plains 271.1
West 162.0
Total 1,092.0
420.7
370.6
433.2
207.1
1,431.6
486.3
443.7
586.6
227.8
1,744.3
o
O
O
33
•o
O
X
a
o
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10* Tt>ns/7ear)
Coal-Pi red Generation
Capacity (OH)
emulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($10')
Scrubber Capacity (Of)
Existing
Retrofit
KSPS
AHSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
East North Central
Boat South Central
West Borth Central
Meet South Central
West
Total
Sludge Generated
(106 TbnsAear)
Energy Penalty
(1015 BtuAear)
56.7
305.0
276.2
107.5
16.22
0.04
65.5
401.6
500.2
5.7
43.4
31.9
26.6
12.6
14.0 (63.3)
1.8
0.8
1.3
1.8
3.7
4.6
5.7
45.8
32.9
123.2
44.4
78.8 (60.8)
19.1
8.4
7.2
7.4
15.1
21.6
207.6
26.25
0.21
72.0
537.3
767.8
5.7
44.9
35.2
258.8
82,
176
(58.3)
48.9
14.1
12.3
17.0
48.4
35.7
344.6
37.88
0.34
-------
SIMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE HEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STAJIDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
DFAFT
May 30, i.37
Paqe A-2a
o
o
o
30
s
1
o
Dry Scrubbing
Partial Control
90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 or 50Z Floor (D)
1985 1990 1995
National SOj Emissions
(106 Tons /Year)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Present Value of National S02
Emissions (10& Tons)
Regional S&2 Emissions Rate
(10* Tons /Year)
East
East North Central
East South Central
West fforth Central
West Sooth Central
West
Total
national SO2 taissions Rate
(lb»./10* Btu)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
ABSPS
Total
Regional SO} Eaiasioru; Rate
(Ibs./lO* Btu)
Bast
East Horth Central
Bast South Central
West North Central
U«st South Central
West
Total
Oil/Gas Consunption
do" Btu/Year)
P over-plant a
Coal Transportation
Total
2.55
17.44
14.90
2.13
0.41
19.99
1.82
18.38
14.55
2.16
1.67
20.20
1.24
19.41
13.93
2.19
3.28
20.64
6. 56
5.61
2.82
2.39
1.74
0.87
19.99
0.8*6
2.203
2.796
1.120
0.601
1.830
1.656
2.562
2.122
2.645
1.020
0.723
1.830
6.028
0.181
6*. 10*
6.50
5.56
2.98
2.43
1.74
1.01
20.20
0.858
1.848
2.820
1.117
0.5*5
T.&74
1.659
2.410
2.008
2.493
0.921
0.670
1.674
4.244
0.177
4.921
6.65
5.54
3.09
2.43
1.79
1.13
20.64
0.799
1.557
2.924
1.106
0.574
1.473
1.495
2.243
1.713
2.087
0.807
0.595
1.473
3.099
0.354
3.*53
Wet Scrubbing
Partial Control
90% Removal With Washing Credits
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.55 Floor (E)
1985 1990 1995
20.21
20.78
6.47
5.63
2.84
2.41
1.74
0.88
19.98
0.842
2.202
2.792
1.113
0.640
1.824
1.744
2.568
2.303
2.656
1.029
0.724
1.824
6.079
0.194
6.263
6.48
5.56
3.02
2.37
1.74
1.03
20.21
0.854
1.842
2.840
1.115
0.617
1.666
1.657
2.436
2.000
2.296
0.925
0.685
1.666
4.333
o.ai
4.614
6.69
5.48
3.13
2.42
1.83
1.23
20.78
0.802
1.557
2.913
1.117
0.609
1.472
1.493
2.248
1.727
1.981
0.818
0.636
1.472
3.181
0.364
J.5*5
-------
o
o
o
31
•o
O
3D
1935
SUGARY Or FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOUR
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLAS'TS
Dry Scrubbing
Partial Control
90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 or 50Z Floor (D)
1990
1995
1985
DRAFT
Kay 10,1979
Page A-2b
Wet Scrubbing
Partial Control
90? Removal With Washing Credits:
1.0 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.55 Floor (E)
1990
1995
Change in Annuaiized Cost
Absolute ($lO'/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Coats ($109)
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Case Year Basia
Coal Production
(106 Tons/Year)
Appal achia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
UO6 Tons/Year)
Coal-fired Generation
Capacity (GH)
emulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (CW)
Existing
Retrofit
HSPS
AHSPS
Pull
Partial (Z Reaoval)
East
East North Central
Baat South Central
West Worth Central
Heat Sooth Central
Weat
Total
Sludge Generated
UO6 Tons/Year)
Energy Penalty
(1013 Ben/fear)
0.27
0.26
3.55
742.9
56.7
305.0
276.2
1.41
1 .04
16.14
951.0
420.7
370.6
433.2
207.0
1,431.5
65.5
401.6
500.1
2.90
1.67
29.48
913.8
486.2
443.7
587.6
227.1
1,744.6
72.0
537.2
767.8
o.:3
0.21
3.00
1,625.0
61.7
303.2
277.1
5.7
43.4
31.9
26.6
12.6
14.0 (63.1)
1.8
0.8
1.3
1.8
3.7
4.6
5.7
45.9
32.9
123.2
44.4
78.8 (60.9)
19.1
8.4
7.2
7.4
15.1
21.6
5.7
44.9
35.2
258.8
82.4
176.4 (58.3)
48.9
14.2
12.3
17.0
48.4
35.7
5.7
24.2
29.4
25.7
18
7
.3
.4 (49.8)
_
_
_
1.3
1.9
4.2
16.22
0.03
207.7
26.27
0.11
344.5
37.88
0.17
85.1
16.45
0.05
1.38
1 .01
15.74
1,079.5
407.0
382.9
453.5
199.2
1,442.6
60.0
398.6
505.2
5.7
24.
30.
121
5
1
1
72.6
48.5 (46.0)
3.0
1.9
9.4
14. 1
20.1
181.3
28.06
0.16
3.18
1.85
31.85
1,094.4
68.2
534.1
779.1
5.7
24.7
30.4
256.6
151,
105
4 (42.4)
1.0
1.6
6.0
18,
48.
29.8
317.4
42.71
0.38
-------
DRAFT
Nay 30, 1979
Page A-3a
SUMMARY OF fORBCMTXD VMCV OT ALTSZttTIVB HM SODRCB
anuDMM Ft* co«L-rxttD
Dry Scrubbing
701 NlnlBUB Kraoval Requirement
and 0,55 lb*. K>.JH2 Bniaalona Rate
(lbs./106 Btu)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Regional SOj Enlselona Rate
(lbs./106 Btu)
Bast
East North Central
East South Central
west North Central
West South Central
West
Total
Oil/Gas Consumption
(1015 Btu/Y«ar)
Powerplants
Coal Transportation
Total
6.54
S.6S
2.81
2.45
1.73
O.B8
IO7
0.841
2.219
2.809
1.X20
0.4M
i.eW
1.767
2.575
2.304
2.705
1.018
0.728
"OS?
6.083
0.181
~T3tt
«.4S
5.56
2.86
2.46
1.71
0.97
IOJ
0.857
1.830
2.833
1.120
0.485
-oar
1.638
2.409
1.963
2.524
0.905
0.420
LI'* 9
4.250
0.276
"OS?
6.54
5.46
2.96
2.4S
1.71
1.06
5571?
0.798
1.520
2.926
1.120
0.479
-on
1.472
2.209
1.637
2.103
0.770
0.558
-TJTT
3.100
0.356
3.456
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30,
Page A»
1979
3b
SUIMARY OF FORECASTED BFPBCTB OF AlffBRHATIVB', Vtt* SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLAWTB
Dry Scrubbing
701 Minima Reaoval
and 0.55 Ibe. aP./ilPtu Llait (F)
an
1915
1995
Change in Annual!zed Coat
Absolute ($109/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annual I zed Costs ($109)
0.25
0.24
3.21
1.75
1.29
19.79
3.21
1.86
32.94
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Case Year Basis
821.6
1,048.6
686.0
Coal Production
(106 Tons/Year)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(106 Tons/Year)
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity «W)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures (SlO'l
Scrubber Capacity (GW)
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (« Removal)
East
East North Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
West
Total
388.6
2«7.8
271.0
162.9
1,090.2
38.1
303.5
275.3
424.8
369.8
433.8
206.8
1,431.2
65.8
401.5
500.6
5.7
47.9
32.3
123.1
40.
82,
(70.2)
2(59.0
22.3
9.0
7.2
7.5
15.0
21.8
74.0
537.1
768.9
5.7
46.4
32.6
258.7
72.1
186.6 (70.2)
53.3
14.8
13.0
17.0
48.4
38.8
Sludge Generated
(10* TonH/Year)
Energy Penalty
(10ls Btu/Year)
15.92
0.05
26.60
0.12
39.25
0.17
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE MEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPIANTS IN 1995
DRA5T
May 30, 1979
Page A-4a
Dry Scrubbing
•j.SSLbs. 502/MMbcu Annual
EMISSION LIMITATION, 33%
Minimum Removal (G)
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits,
0.7 Ib. Ceiling and 70%
Minimum Removal (H)
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Hashing Credits,
0.7 Ib. Ceiling and 33%
Minimum Removal (I)
National 502 Emissions
(10s Tons/Year)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
1.24
19.33
14.06
2.24
3.03
20.57
1.24
19.39
13.94
2.16
3^27
20.63
1.24
19.99
13.96
2.19
3.84
21.23
Present Value of National 302
Emissions (106 Tons)
Regional 3C>2 Baissions
(106 Tons/Year)
Bast
Bast north Central
Bast South Central
meat North Central
west south Central
West
Total
56
52
97
49
81
1.21
20.57
6.67
5.53
3.07
2.44
1.81
1.09
20.53
6.81
5.56
3.10
2.50
1.99
1.27
21.23
National S02 Emissions Rate
(Iba./lO6 Btu)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
•SP6
total
0.799
1.551
2.922
1.120
0.536
1.467
0.799
1.604
2.931
1.119
0.669
1.515
o
o
o
30
s
i
o
Regional 802 Emissions Rate
(lba./106 Btu)
Bast
Bast Horth Central
Bast South Central
West Horth Central
West South Central
West
Total
Oll/Sas Consumption
(1015 BtuAear)
Powerplants
Coml Transportation
Total
1.475
2.234
1.641
2.13S
O.B20
0.633
1.467
3.102
0.355
3.457
1.499
2.221
1.701
2.131
0.813
0.572
1.470
1.531
2.252
1.718
2.145
0.897
0.663
1.515
3.099
0.351
3.450
-------
SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OP ALTERNATIVE VEH SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS IN 1395
May 30, I'l
Page A-4b
Dry Scrubbing
0.55 Lbs. SO /MMBtu Annual
EMISSION LIMITATION, 33*
KinimuD Removal (G)
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits,
0.7 Ib. Ceiling and 70%
Minimum Removal (H)
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits
0.7 Ib. Ceiling and 33%
Minimum Removal (I)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute (S109/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Coats (S109)
Change in Annualized Cost
Per Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Case Tear Basis
2.97
1.71
915.8
3.15
1.82
988.0
2.69
1.56
1,040.5
Coal Production
UO6 Tons/Year)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
483.4
444.5
592.5
225.1
1,745.6
490.5
442.2
489.2
442.1
S88.0
224.6
1,743.8
Western Coal Consumed in Bast
(106 Tons/Tear)
74.8
71.3
69.4
o
O
O
31
TJ
O
3)
Coal-Fired Generation
Opacity (OH
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (GW)
Existing
Retrofit
HBPS
ABSFS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
Baat North Central
East South Central
West north Central
West South Central
West
Total
Sludge Generated
(10« Tons/Tear]
Bnergv Penalty
(1015 Btu/T«ar)
537.1
767.9
36.53
0.18
537.1
770.6
42.IS
0.20
537.1
768.2
5.7
46.4
34.3
258.7
45.9
212.8 (51.3)
71.0
14.5
16.7
17.0
57.3
36.4
345.0
37.13
0.16
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
A-5a
SUMtARY 0? PORKA3TBD BFPBCTB OF ALTERHATIVK HW 80UKCB
PERPOFJUWCB STANDARDS K»R COAL-FIRBD KWIMIMITS
Dry Scrubbing
901 mmonl with washing Credits,
0.9 Ibs. StytiOtu Celling,
0.55 lb». sd./Htttu Floor,
70t Minima R«»eff«l K»guit«>«nt (j)
HB3
1990
1»95
National 302 Bnisslona
(106 TonsA««r)
Oil/Sas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Present Value of National 8Oj
Emissions (106 Tons)
Regional 803 Emissions
(106 Tons/Year)
Bast
East North Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
West
Total
National 302 Emissions Rate
(lbs./106 Btu)
Oil/Sas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Regional 302 Erniesions Rat*
(Ibe./lO6 Btu)
East
Bast North Central
East South Central
West North Central
Wast South Central
West
Total
Oil/13 as
(10-1.5 etu/Year)
Powerplants
Coal Transportation
Total
6.56
5.57
2.82
2.45
1.73
0.88
2OT
0.845
2.209
2.802
1.118
0.671
l.eJi
1.749
2.343
2.324
2.709
1.015
0.725
1.432
6.039
0.181
«,Ji6
6.51
5.55
2.97
2.45
1.70
0.97
2TTI5
0.857
1.843
2.825
1.117
0.5M
1.663
2.406
2.005
2.512
0.900
0.644
1.6(9
4.249
0.276
~03?
6.64
5.53
3.08
2.44
1.70
1.06
3O?
0.799
1.541
2.924
1.116
0.537
1.459
1.492
2.238
1.706
2.092
0.766
0.557
1.459
3.099
0.355
17414
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
SIKMARY OF FORECASTED BPFBCtS OP ALTBWIATIVBRW 8OJRCB
PERFOSMANCE 9TMJDABD8 FOR COAL-FISBD POWBRPLAHTS
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page A-5b
Dry Scrubbing
901 R«mov»l With Washing Credits,
0.9 Ibs. 30,/MtBtu Calling, 0.55 Ibs. SO./JMBtu Floor,
70% Mlnl»u» RMMVB! R«qult«M»t (J)
1985 1*96 J998
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute (S109/Year)
Percentage
Change In Present value of
Annualtzed Coats (S109)
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed (S/Ton)
Case Year Basis
Coal Production
(106 TonsAear)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10* Tons/Year)
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity (OH)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (CM)
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (» Removal)
East
East North Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
West
Total
0.29
0.27
3.76
828.3
57.6
304.5
276.0
1.62
1.19
18.44
1,053.7
420.8
372.8
432.0
205.9
1,431.4
63.7
401.5
500.6
5.7
42.1
31.9
26.0
12
13
.6
.4 (70.5)
1.8
0.6
1.3
1.3
3.7
4.6
3.20
1.84
32.59
950.3
72.0
S37.2
769.1
105.8
5.7
52.3
32.9
123.1
45.8
77.3 (70.2)
17.8
8.2
7.2
7.5
15.0
21.6
206.4
5.7
50.9
33.9
259.8
82.3
176.5 (70.0)
48.2
13.4
13.0
17.0
48.4
36.5
341.7
Sludge Generated
(10* Tons/Year)
Energy Penalty
(1015 Btu/Year)
16.29
0.04
27.79
0.12
40.82
0.17
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE Page A"6a
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Wet Scrubbing Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credit; 90» Removal with Hashing Credit;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor; 1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor;
70% Minimum Renoval Requirement (K) 70% Minimum Removal Requirement (L)
1990 1995 1990 1995
National 3O2 Emissions
(10s Tons/Year)
Oil/Gas 1.86 1.28 1.82 1.24
Coal 18.28 19.27 18.31 19.21
Existing 14.47 13.88 14.60 13.95
NSPS 2.08 2.08 2.14 2.19
AHSPS 1.74 3.31 1.56 3.07
Total 20.14 20.55 20.13 20.45
Present Value of National S02
Emissions (10* Tons)
Regional SO2 Emissions
(10s Tons/Tear)
Boat 6.50 6.66 6.48 6.62
Boat Horth Central 5.59 5.63 5.55 5.S3
Bast South Central 3.02 3.12 2.97 3.09
West Horth Central 2.33 2.31 2.45 2.44
Host Sooth Central 1.72 1.75 1.70 1.70
West 0.96 1.09 0.97 1.06
Total 20.14 20.55 20.13 20.45
Rational SOj Emissions Hate
(U»./106 Btn)
Oil/Cas 0.851 0.800 0.857 0.799
Coal 1.836 1.536 1.839 1.S39
Brio ting 2.838 2.912 2.828 2.925
BOTS 1.1U 1.114 1.116 1.115
MSPS 0.582 0.559 0.545 O.S34
Total 1.659 1.452 1.667 1.4S7
Regional SOj Emissions Rate
(Ibs./lo6 Btu)
Boat 1.662 1.482
Baat Horth Central 2.417 2.265
But South Central 1.999 1.722
•est Horth Central 2.319 1.954
•eat South Central 0.910 0.775
_ West 0.648 O.S61
(") Total 1.659 1.452
Tl
— 011/Saa Consumption
£5 (10u BtuA**r)
O Powarplants
^ Coal Transportation
O Total
-------
S'JI-MARY OF FORECATED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED PCWERPLANTS
May Y.. 19
Page A-6i
Wet Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor;
70% Minimum Removal Requirement (K)
1990 1995
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor;
70% Minimum Removal Requirement ID
1990 1995
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute (S109/Year) 1.69
Percentage 1.25
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Costs (S109) 19.16
3.64
2.U
36.71
1.65
1.21
18.79
3.25
1.87
33.15
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Case Year Basis
1,254.6
1,163.0
1,059.5
1,035.7
Coal Production
(106 Tons/Year)
Appalachia
Midwest
northern Great Plains
West
Total
470.3
46S.2
631.9
202.8
1,770.2
421.3
373.5
432.2
205.8
1,432.8
483.5
449.8
601.7
216.8
1,751.8
•eatern Coal Consuaed in Bast
(106 TooaAear)
61.9
71.2
63.4
69.6
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity (O») 396.8
emulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109) 506.9
532.9
782.6
401.5
S00.6
537.2
769.2
o
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrof it
(00
Pull
Partial (% Removal)
But
Bast Horth Central
Baat South Central
West Horth Central
Mat South Central
5.7
23.1
29.9
119.4
91.
28,
(70.8)
0.1
3.3
S.8
15.9
total
178.1
5
23
29
2SS
.7
.4
.9
.4
5
44
32
123
136.2
69
.2
_
_
5
5
34
24
(70.3)
.3
.2
.2
.5
.7
.4
.6
.1
46.
7
76.4
17
8
7
7
15
21
(70.2)
.0
.0
.2
.5
.0
.6
5
43
33
258
.7
.1
.9
.8
84.
173.
9
a
48
13
10
17
48
35
(70.0)
.1
.6
.9
.0
.4
.9
314.4
205.8
341.5
O
O
X
•o
o
30
Sludge Generated
(10* Tons/Year)
Bnerfy Penalty
(1015 BtuAear)
31.27
0.18
49.67
0.34
27.58
0.14
40.88
0.21
-------
SKAF7
May 30, 1979
SUHHARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SODRCc Pagfr A-7a
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Dry Scrubbing
Dry Scrubbing 90% Removal With Washing Credits;
90» Removal With Washing Credits; 1.0 Ib. Ceiling, 0.55 Ib. Floor;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling (H) 33% Minimum Removal (0)
1990 1995 1990 1995
National SO2 Emissions
(106 TonsAear)
Oil/Gas 1.92 1.45 1.82 1.24
Coal 18.12 19.27 18.49 19.61
Existing 14.47 13.94 14.63 13.98
NSPS 2.09 2.25 2.14 2.23
ANSPS 1.57 3.08 1.72 3.41
Total 20.04 20.72 20.31 20.85
Present Value oC National SO2
Baissions (106 Tons)
Regional SC>2 Eaissions
(106 TonsAear)
East 6.59 6.96 6.55
Bast North Central 5.59 5.67 5.SS
Bast South Central 3.01 3.18 2.98
West Horth Central 2.33 2.27 2.47
West South Central 1.62 1.66 1.74
West 0.90 0.96 1.04
Total 20.04 20.72 20.31
national SO2 missions Rate
(IbB./lO6 Btu)
Oil/Gas 0.827 0.609 0.858 0.799
Coal 1.841 1.555 1.857 1.557
Existing 2.617 2.891 2.827 2.907
SSPS 1.118 1.120 1.130 1.120
AN8PS 0.552 0.553 0.598 0.600
Total 1.647 1.461 1.682 1.487
Regional SO2 Emissions Rate
(Ibe./lO* Btu)
Bast 1.682 1.555 1.671 1.509
Bast Horth Central 2.416 2.266 2.405 2.242
Bast South Central 1.994 1.760 2.007 1.731
West North Central 2.298 1.944 2.531 2.113
West South Central 0.858 0.726 0.918 0.810
_ West 0.592 0.345 0.689 0.629
Q Total 1.647 1.461 1.682 1.487
•n
— Oil/Baa Consumption
Z (10^ Btu/T«ar)
O Powerplants 4.649 3.585 4.238 3.099
? Coal Transportation 0.276 0.349 0.279 0.350
O Total 4.925 3.934 4.517 3.449
U
m
O
-------
S'JNHARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOUSCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
.-lay K.I 57
Page A-71-
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling (K)
Change in Annual!zed Cost
Absolute (S109/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Annualized Costs (S109)
1990
2.25
1.67
25.54
1995
4.42
2.55
45.00
Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits;
1.0 Ib. Ceiling, 0.55 Ib. Floor;
33% Minimum Removal (0)
1990
1.43
1.05
16.36
1995
3.00
1.72
30.45
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Ton Removed (S/Ton)
Case Year Basis
1,370.8
1,427.5
1,040.7
1,011.7
Coal Production
(106 Tons/Year)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
Nest
Total
401.0
392.2
455.6
183.B
1,432.5
464.9
487.7
627.7
180.2
1,760.5
418.8
372.4
434.8
205.2
1,431.2
486.1
452.7
575.7
227.6
1,742.1
Western Coal Consumed in Bast
(106 TonsAear)
60.5
54.7
65.3
59.1
o
Tl
I
o
3)
TJ
O
3D
Coal-Pired Generation
Capacity (Of)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures (S109)
Scrubber Capacity (GN)
Existing
Retrofit
MSPS
ASSPS
Pull
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
East Borth Central
Bast South Central
West North Central
West south Central
Nest
Total
Sludge Generated
(10* TonsAear)
Energy Penalty
(Ifll5 BtuAear)
390.4
501.2
5.7
44.6
32.8
112.0
112.0
155.1
34.46
0.32
520.2
775.0
5.7
44.2
33.6
241.7
241.
325.1
56.00
0.51
401.9
4«7.6
209.0
26.55
0.13
537.3
767.2
5
46
33
123
.7
.7
.2
.4
43
80
.4
.0
20
8
6
7
15
21
(58.9)
.5
.2
.3
.4
.8
.9
5
45
35
258
.7
.6
.2
.8
77
181
.6
.3
51
14
12
17
49
36
(55.5)
.7
.7
.3
.0
.1
.5
345.3
38.71
0.19
-------
a
x'
C3
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
APPENDIX B
COST AND EMISSION RATE SPECIFICATIONS
OF ALTERNATIVES
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent
Removal With Washing Credits; 0.8 Ibs. S02/*MBtu Ceiling (A) B-l
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Wet Scrubbing; 90 Percent
Removal With Washing Credits; 1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling (B) B-2
SC>2 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent
Removal With Washing Credits; 0.8 Ibs. S02/MHBtu Ceiling;
0.55 or 50 Percent Floor (C) B-3
SO2 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent
Removal With Washing Credits; 1.0 Ibs. S02/«MBtu Ceiling;
0.55 or 50 Percent Floor (D) B-4
SO2 Scrubber Cost Estimates Wet Scrubbing; 90 Percent
Removal With Washing Credits; 1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling;
0.55 S02/MMBtu Floor (E) B-5
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 0.55 Ibs.
SO2/MMBtu Annual Emission Limitation; 70 Percent Minimum
Removal Requirement (F) B-6
SO2 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 0.55 Ibs.
S02/MMBtu Annual Emission Limitation; 33 Percent Minimum
Removal Requirement (G) B-7
SO2 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 0.7 Ibs. S02/MMBtu
Ceiling; 70 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (H) B-8
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 0.7 Ibs. S02/WMBtu
Ceiling; 33 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (I) B-9
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent Removal
With Washing Credit; 0.9 Ibs. Ceiling; 0.5 Ib. Floor;
70 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (J) B-10
S02 scrubber Cost Estimates Wet Scrubbing; 90 Percent Removal
With Washing Credit; 1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.5 Ibs.
S02/MMBtu Floor; 70 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (K) B-ll
SO2 scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent Removal
With Washing Credit; 1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.5 Ibs.
Floor; 70 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (L) B-12
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-2-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent Removal
With Washing Credit and 1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling (M) B-13
S02 Scrubber Cost Estimates Dry Scrubbing; 90 Percent Removal
With Washing Credit and 1.0 Ibs. SC-2/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.55 Ibs.
S02/MMBtu Floor; 33 Percent Minimum Removal Requirement (0) B-14
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-l
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS}
0.8 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
(A)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Scenario Specifications
0.8
1.2
1.66
3.33
5.0
6.6
Annual SO 2 Emission Limitation
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
Percent Annual S02 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily S02 Removed
(Ibs./lO* Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(Ibs./lO* Btu)
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
O&M (Mills/KWH)
Capacity Penalty (%)
Energy Penalty (%)
0.08
90
100
0.99
0.72
105.00
2.00
107.00
1.75
2.75
4.35
0.12
90
100
1.48
1.08
105.60
2.40
108.00
1.85
2.75
4.35
0.17
90
100
2.05
1.50
106.10
2.75
108.85
1.92
2.75
4.35
0.39
88
98
4.02
2.94
106.60
3.90
110.50
2.40
2.68
4.30
0.77
85
94
5.79
4.23
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
0.80
88
98
8.04
5.80
109.30
5.95
115.25
2.75
2.68
4.30
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-2
SO2 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
WET SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
(B)
Scenario Specifications
A. Annual S02 Emission Limitation
Clbs./106 Btu)
B. Percent Annual SO2 Removed
C. Percent of Gas Treated
D. Daily SO2 Removed
(Ibs./lO6 Btu)
E. Annual. S02 Removed
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
0.8
0.08
90
100
0.99
0.72
f
1.2
0.12
90
100
1.48
1.08
1.66
0.17
90
100
2.05
1.50
3.33
0.39
88
98
4.02
2.94
5.0
0.77
85
94
5.79
4.23
6.6
1.
85
94
7.
5.
00
6
6
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital. ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
105.00 105.60 106.10 106.60 105.10 106.00
2.00 2.40 2.75 3.90 4.85 5.80
107.00 108.00 108.85 110.50 109.85 111.80
1.75 1.85 1.92 2.40 2.36 2.65
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.68 2.60 2.65
4.35 4.35 4.35 4.30 3.75 3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-3
SO2 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
0.8 LBS. SOo/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 OR 50 PERCENT FLOOR
(C)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Scenario Specifications
Annual SO2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO-> Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO 2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual SO 2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Stoicheimestic Ratio
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
0.8
0.40
50
100
0.40
1.5
9?
1.2
0.54
55
100
0.66
1.5
1.66
0.54
67
100
1.12
2.0
3.33
0.54
84
93
3.82
2.79
5.0
0.77
85
94
5.79
4.23
6.6
0.80
88
98
8.04
5.80
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
32.13
1.20
0.50
32.13
1.27
0.50
38.48
1.67
0.50
96.10 105.10 109.30
3.65 4.85 5.95
99.75 109.85 115.25
2.04 2.36 2.75
2.60 2.60 2.68
3.75 3.75 4.30
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-4
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO^/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 OR 50 PERCENT FLOOR
(D)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Scenario Specifications
Annual SO2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Dai ly S02 Removed
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
Annual SO2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Stoicheimestic Ratio
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
0.8
0.40
50
100
0.40
.1.5
f
1.2
0.54
55
100
0.66
1.5
1.66
0.54
67
100
1.12
2.0
3.33
0.54
84
93
3.82
2.79
"
5.0
0.77
85
94
5.79
4.23
6.6
1.
85
94
7.
5.
00
60
60
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
32
1
0
__
.13
.20
.50
32.
1.
0.
_
13
27
50
38
1
0
.48
.67
.50
96
3
99
2
2
3
.10
.65
.75
.04
.60
.75
105
4
109
2
2
3
.10
.85
.85
.36
.60
.75
106.
5.
111.
2.
2.
3.
00
80
80
65
65
80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-5
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
WET SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING» 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR
(E)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Scenario Specifications
Annual SO2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual S02 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO2 Removed
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
Annual SO2 Removed
(Ibs./lfl6 Btu)
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
O&M (Mills/KWH)
Capacity Penalty (%)
Energy Penalty (%)
0.8
0.54
33
36
0.35
0.26
49.00
0.85
49.85
0.77
0.99
0.99
r
1.2
0.54
55
61
0.90
0.66
70.00
1.60
71.60
1.20
1.53
1.53
1.66
0.54
67
75
1.53
1.12
79.80
2.00
81.80
1.42
2.08
2.30
3.33
0.54
84
93
3.82
2.79
96.10
3.65
99.75
2.04
2.60
3.75
5.0
0.77
85
94
5.79
4.23
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
6.6
1.00
85
94
7.60
5.60
106.00
5.80
111.80
2.65
2.65
3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-6
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU ANNUAL EMISSION
LIMITATION; 70 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(F)
S00/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
0.8
0.24
70
100
0.56
1.2
0.36
70
100
0.84
1.66
0.50
70
100
1.16
3.33
0.54
84
93
3.82
2.79
5.0
0.54
89
99
6.09
4.46
6.6
-
-
-
—
-
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
96.10 108.10
3.65 5.20
38.48
1.67
0.50
38.48
1.67
0.50
38.48
1.67
0.50
99.75
2.04
2.60
113.30
2.50
2.65
-
-
.„
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-7
SO2 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU ANNUAL EMISSION
LIMITATION; 33 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(G)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Scenario Specifications
Annual SO2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO 2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
0.8
0.54
33
36
0.35
0.26
tf
1.2
0.54
55
100
0.90
0.66
1.66
0.54
67
100
1.53
1.12
3.33
0.54
84
93
3.82
2.79
5.0
0.54
89
99
6.09
4.46
6.6
-
-
-
-
-
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
96.10 108.10
3.65 5.20
32.13
1.15
0.50
32.13
1.27
0.50
38.48
1.69
0.50
99.75
2.04
2.60
113.30
2.50
2.65
-
-
-
3.75 4.32
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MM powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-8
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 0.7 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING;
70 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(H)
S0?/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual S02 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily 862 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./10<5 Btu)
Stoicheimetr tc Ratio
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
O&M (Mills/KWH)
Capacity Penalty (%)
Energy Penalty (%)
0.8
0.24
70
100
0.56
2.0
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
tr
1.2
0.36
70
100
0.84
2.0
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
1.66
0.50
70
100
1.16
2.0
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
3.33
0.70
79
88
2.63
"
95.25
1.85
2.33
3.15
5.0
0.70
86
96
4.30
"
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.30
2.60
3.75
6.6
0.70
89
99
5.90
109.30
5.95
115.25
2.75
2.68
4.30
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-9
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 0.7 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING;
33 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(I)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
dbs./ioe Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(Ibs./I06 etu)
0.8
0.54
33
36
0.26
*
1.2
0,70
41
46
0.42
1.66
0.70
58
64
0.96
3.33
0.70
79
88
2.63
5.0
0.70
86
96
4.30
6.6
0
89
99
5
.70
.90
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (MillS/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
105.10 109.30
4.85 5.95
32.13
1.15
0.50
0
32.13
1.15
0.50
0
38.48
1.50
0.50
0
95.25
1.85
2.33
3.15
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
115.25
2.75
2.68
4.30
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-10
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
0.9 LBS. CEILING; 0.5 LB. FLOOR;
70 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(J)
Scenario Specifications
0.8
SO /10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
1.2
1.66
3.33
5.0
6.6
A. Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106
B. Percent Annual S02 Removed
C. Percent of Gas Treated
D. Daily S02 Removed
(l.bs./106 Btu)
E. Annual SO2 Removed
(].bs./106
0.24
70
100
0.56
0.36
70
100
0.84
0.50
70
100
1.16
0.50
85
94
2.83
0.77
85
94
4.23
0.90
86
95
5.70
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
105.10 109.30
4.85 5.95
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
38.48
1.69
0.50
0
103.40
2.08
2.60
3.75
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
115.25
2.75
2.68
4.30
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-ll
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
WET SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(K)
S0,./10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
Scenario Specifications
A. Annual SO? Emission Limitation
(1DS./106 Btu)
B. Percent Annual S02 Removed
C. Percent of Gas Treated
D. Daily SO2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
E. Annual SO2 Removed
(Ibs./I06
0.8
0.24
70
100
0.56
1.2
0.36
70
100
0.84
1.66
0.50
70
100
1.16
3.33
0.50
85
94
2.83
5.0
0.77
85
94
4.23
6.6
1.00
85
94
5.60
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
84.80
1.40
2.15
2.15
85.50
1.43
2.15
2.15
86.20
1.52
2.15
2.15
96.10
3.65
99.75
2.04
2.60
3.75
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
106.00
5.80
111.80
2.65
2.65
3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-12
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL REQUIREMENT
(L)
S0?/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual S02 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO2 Removed
(lbs./10<5 Btu)
Annual SO2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
0.8
0.24
70
100
0.56
f
1.2
0.36
70
100
0.84
1.66
0.50
70
100
1.16
3.33
0.50
85
94
2.83
5.0
0.77
85
94
4.23
6.6
1.
85
94
5.
00
60
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mi..Us/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
38.48
1.69
0.50
0.50
38.48
1.69
0.50
0.50
38.48
1.69
0.50
0.50
96.10
3.65
99.75
2.04
2.60
3.75
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
106.00
5.80
111.80
2.65
2.65
3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-13
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT AND
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
(M)
S0?/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO 2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
O&M (Mills/KWH)
Capacity Penalty (%)
Energy Penalty (%)
0.8
0.08
90
100
0.72
105.00
2.00
107.00
1.75
2.75
4.35
f
1.2
0.12
90
100
1.08
105.60
2.40
108.00
1.85
2.75
4.35
1.66
0.17
90
100
1.49
106.10
2.75
108.85
1.92
2.75
4.35
3.33
0.39
88
98
2.94
106.60
3.90
110.50
2.40
2.68
4.30
5.0
0.77
85
94
4.23
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
6.6
1.00
85
94
5.60
106.00
5.80
111.80
2.65
2.65
3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page B-14
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
DRY SCRUBBING; 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT AND
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR;
33 PERCENT MINIMUM REMOVAL
(0)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Scenario Specifications
Annual S02 Emission Limitation
(Ibs./lOfi atu)
Percent Annual S02 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Stoicheimetric Ratio
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
0.8
0.54
0.33
100
0.26
1.5
f
1.2
0.54
55
100
0.66
1.5
1.66
0.54
67
100
1.12
2.0
3.33
0.54
84
93
2.79
™
5.0
0.77
85
94
4.23
~"
6.6
1.
85
94
5.
"™
00
60
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
32.13
1.27
0.50
0.5
32.13
1.27
0.50
0.5
38.48
1.67
0.50
0.5
106.60
3.90
110.50
2.40
2.68
4.30
105.10
4.85
109.85
2.36
2.60
3.75
106.00
5.80
111.80
2.65
2.65
3.80
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
a
x'
n
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
APPENDIX C
MORE DETAILED SUMMARY OF FORECASTS FOR
CERTAIN ALTERNATIVES FOR 1990 AND 1995
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative I: Current Standard of 1.2 Ibs. S02/MMBtu
Dry Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-I-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-I-2a-2b
Annual S02 Emissions C-I-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-I-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-I-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-I-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-I-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-I-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-I-9
Regional Coal Production C-I-10a-10c
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-I-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-I-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-I-13a-13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-I-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-l-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-I-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity C-I-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-I-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-I-19
Alternative II: Current Standard of 1.2 Ibs. S02/MMBtu
Wet Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-II-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-II-2a-2b
Annual SO2 Emissions C-II-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-II-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-II-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-II-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-II-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-II-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-II-9
Regional Coal Production C-H-10a-10c
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-II-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-II-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-II-13a-.13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-II-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-II-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-II-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity C-II-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-II-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-II-19
1CF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-2-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative III: 90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.50 Ibs.
S02/MMBtu Floor; 70% Minimum Removal
Dry Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-III-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-III-2a-2b
Annual S02 Emissions C-III-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-III-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-III-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-III-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-III-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-III-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-III-9
Regional Coal Production C-III-10a-10c
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-III-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-III-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-III-13a-13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-III-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-III-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-III-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity C-III-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-III-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-III-19
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity C-III-20
Change in S02 Emissions Relative to Current Standard C-III-21
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed C-III-22
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-3-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative IV: 90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.50 Ibs.
SO2/MMBtu Floor; 70% Minimum Removal
Wet Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-IV-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-IV-2a-2b
Annual S02 Emissions C-IV-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-IV-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-IV-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-IV-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-IV-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-IV-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-IV-9
Regional Coal Production C-IV-lOa-lOc
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-IV-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-!V-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-IV-13a-13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-IV-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-IV-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-IV-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity C-IV-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-IV-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-IV-19
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity C-IV-20
Change in SO2 Emissions Relative to Current Standard C-IV-21
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed C-IV-22
!CF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-4-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative V: 90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu ceiling; 0.55 Ibs.
s°2/MMBtu Floor; 33% Minimum Removal
Dry Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-V-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-V-2a-2b
Annual SO2 Emissions C-V-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-V-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-V-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-V-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-V-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-V-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-V-9
Regional Coal Production C-V-lOa-lOc
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-V-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-V-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-V-13a-13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-V-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-V-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-V-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity C-V-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-V-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-V-19
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity C-V-20
Change in S02 Emissions Relative to Current Standard C-V-21
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed C-V-22
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-5-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative VI: 90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling; 0.55 Ibs.
SO2/MMBtu Floor; 33% Minimum Removal
Wet Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector C-VI-1
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content C-VI-2a-2b
Annual SO2 Emissions C-VI-3a-3c
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-VI-4
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-VI-5
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-VI-6
Utility Coal Consumption C-VI-7a-7b
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-VI-8a-8f
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-VT-9
Regional Coal Production C-VI-lOa-lOc
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-VI-lla-llb
Delivered Coal Prices C-VI-12a-12b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-VI-13a-13b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission C-VI-14a-14b
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-VI-15
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-VI-16a-16e
Scrubber Capacity . C-VT-17a-17d
Sludge Generated C-VI-18
Electric Utility Capital Costs C-VI-19
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity C-VI-20
Change in SO2 Emissions Relative to Current Standard C-VI-21
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed C-VI-22
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-6-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative VII: 90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling Dry Scrubbing
C-VH-1
Coal Consumption by Sector viT-2a-2b
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content c-VII-3a-3c
Annual SO2 Emissions C-VII-4
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions C-VII-5
National Utility Fuel Consumption C-VII-6
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption C-VII-7a-7b
Utility Coal Consumption C-VII-8a-8f
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption C-VII-9
Aggregated Regional Coal Production C-VII-lOa-lOc
Regional Coal Production c-VII-lla-llb
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices C-VII-12a-12b
Delivered Coal Prices C-VII-13a-13b
National Coal Transportation Matrix C-VII-14a-14b
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission £ vil-15
National Electricity Generation Capacity C-VII-16a-16e
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity C-VII-17a-17d
Scrubber Capacity C-VII-18
Sludge Generated C-VII-19
Electric Utility Capital Costs VTT-20
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity C-VII 20
Change in S02 Emissions Relative to Current Standard p~X;;~22
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed ^ViJ-
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
-7-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Alternative VIII:
90% Removal With Washing Credit;
1.0 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Ceiling Wet Scrubbing
Coal Consumption by Sector
Coal Consumption by Sector and By Sulfur Content
Annual SO2 Emissions
Annual NOX and Particulate Emissions
National Utility Fuel Consumption
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
Utility Coal Consumption
1995 ANSPS Coal Consumption
Aggregated Regional Coal Production
Regional Coal Production
Mine-Mouth Coal Prices
Delivered Coal Prices
National Coal Transportation Matrix
Inter-Regional Electricity Transmission
National Electricity Generation Capacity
Regional Electricity Generation Capacity
Scrubber Capacity
Sludge Generated
Electric Utility Capital Costs
Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity
Change in S02 Emissions Relative to Current Standard
Change in Annualized Cost Per Ton Removed
C-VIII-
C-VIIT
C-VIII-
C-VIII-
C-VIII-
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
C-VIII
•1
•2a-2b
•3a-3c
-4
•5
-6
-7a-7b
-8a-8f
-9
-lOa-lOc
-lla-llb
-12a-12b
-13a-13b
-14a-14b
-15
-16a-16e
-17a-17d
-18
-19
-20
-21
-22
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
931.3
361.4
569.9
278.0
100.2
0.7
55.9
76.9
1,443.0
1,167.8
445.8
712.0
320.7
104.3
0.4
88.3
80.6
1,762.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
o
z
o
o
8
3>
3
o
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
68.8
-
-
60.9
129.7
315
184
-
0
2
2
505
.1
12.4
302.7
.8
.2
.6
.8
.5
443
1
31
0
34
3
514
.2
278.3
164.9
.6
.4
.5
.1
.9
.7
173
91
-
-
19
9
293
.0
70.6
102.3
.6
.1
.3
.0
931
278
100
0
55
76
1,443
.3
361
569
.0
.2
.7
.9
.9
.0
.4
.9
-------
o
n
o
•33
TJ
o
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.6
-
-
63.9
470.2
11.7
458.4
213.5
-
0.1
5.3
2.8
507.2
354.2
153.0
0.3
32.7
0.3
37.0
4.1
190.4
89.9
100.6
107.0
-
-
46.0
9.7
1,167.8
455
712
320.7
104.3
0.4
88.3
80.6
.8
.0
135.5
691.8
581.6
353.1
1,762.0
m
O
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 48.4 139.8 106.3
NSPS -
ANSPS - - 58.6
Oil/Gas Plants 101.8 108.7 31.8
Total 150.2 248.5 196.7
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 1,835.9 1,465.4 1,449.3
NSPS - 103.3 103.3
ANSPS - 358.0 739.9
Oil/Gas Plants 371.1 305.0 106.5
Total 2,207.6 2,231.7 2,399.0
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 2,632.2 3,103.5 3,052.1
NSPS - 147.9 154.7
ANSPS - 802.7 1,595.2
Oil/Gas Plants 746.1 468.7 274.7
Total 3,378.3 4,522.7 5,076.5
East
Coal Plants
Existing 4,516.5 4,708.7 4,607.7
NSPS - 251.2 258.0
ANSPS - 1,160.7 2,393.7
Oil/Gas Plants 1,219.6 882.4 413.0
Total. 5,136.1 7,003.0 7,672.2
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 4,961.3 4,750.9
NSPS - 272.4 258.3
ANSPS - 267.6 627.5
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 115.6 77.2
Total 6,885.2 5,616.8 5,713.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-3b
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,267.6 2,184.6
NSPS - 277.2 277.1
ANSPS - 575.8 995.3
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 72.5 59.5
Total 3,394.7 3,193.0 3,516.5
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,810.0 1,716.3
NSPS - 360.1 372.1
ANSPS - 208.5 473.7
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 33.3 36.2
Total 1,532.9 2,411.8 2,598.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 149.8 149.8
NSPS - 693.0 693.0
ANSPS - 776.0 1,472.6
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.8 305.4
Total 412.7 2,164.5 2,620.7
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 333.8 296.1
NSPS - 158.3 154.2
ANSPS - 514.2 769.0
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 20.6 12.4
Total 358.1 1,026.9 1,231.6
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 38.3 35.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 117.0 302.6
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 97.5 106.8
Total 195.7 270.3 462.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-3c
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 372.1 331.8
NSPS - 175.8 171.7
ANSPS - 631.2 1,071.6
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 118.1 119.2
Total 553.8 1,297.2 1,694.3
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,269.4 13,740.8
NSPS - 2,029.7 2,030.1
ANSPS - 3,619.7 7,034.3
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,767.5 1,010.4
Total 18,705.3 21,686.2 23,815.7
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990
NO.
1995
TSP
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
1,267.9
7,349.2
3,798.8
1,288.8
2,261.6
8,617.0
152.2
1,001.2
501.0
181.4
318.8
1,153.4
755.9
9,192.4
3,574.4
1,288.2
4^299.8
9,918.2
90.4
1,263.4
472.8
181.1
609.6
1,353.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-l-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal 9.3 20.0 25.3
Existing 9.3 10.0 9.5
NSPS - 3.6 3.6
ANSPS - 6.4 12.2
Oil/Gas 6.2 4.0 2.6
Nuclear 1.7 9.7 13.5
Hydro and Other 2.0 3.4 3.4
Total 19.2 37.1 44.7
Percent of Total
Coal 48.4 53.9 56.6
Oil/Gas 32.3 10.8 5.8
Nuclear 8.9 26.1 30.2
Hydro and Other 10.4 9.2 7.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.241 0.080
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.711 0.290
South Atlantic 1.010 0.739 0.475
EAST 2.259 1.691 0.845
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.370 0.257
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.139 0.141
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.109 0.131
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.672
Mountain 0.249 0.085 0.069
Pacific 0.787 0.419 0.474
WEST 1.036 0.504 0.543
TOTAL 6.175 3.998 2.590
Oil for Coal Transportation 0.291 0.369
TOTAL 4.289 2.959
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.198 0.147
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.090
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.237
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.257 0.252
Medium Sulfur 1.397 1.936
Low Sulfur 0.170 0.241
Total 1.076 1.824 2.429
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.639 1.094
Medium Sulfur 2.687 2.929
Low Sulfur 0.680 1.238
Total 1.789 4.006 5.261
EAST
High Sulfur 1.094 1.493
Medium Sulfur 4.088 4.955
Low Sulfur 0.850 1.479
Total 2.912 6.032 7.928
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.345 1.310
Medium Sulfur 1.851 2.096
Low Sulfur 0.975 1.173
Total 2.670 4.170 5.579
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.128 1.207
Medium Sulfur 0.990 1.612
Low Sulfur 0.728 0.634
Total 1.328 2.846 3.453
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.416 0.396
Medium Sulfur 0.660 0.636
Low Sulfur 0.823 1.261
Total 0.783 1.899 2.293
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.942 0.938
Low Sulfur 1.638 2.803
Total 0.119 2.580 3.741
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.977 0.921
Low Sulfur 1.265 1.791
Total 0.615 2.242 2.712
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.063 0.031
Low Sulfur 0.192 0.533
Total 0.069 0.255 0.564
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.040 0.952
Low Sulfur 1.457 2.324
Total 0.685 2.497 3.276
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 3.983 4.406
Medium Sulfur 9.571 11.189
Low Sulfur 6.470 9.673
Total 8.719 20.024 25.268
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Virginia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
DRY SCRUBBING
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
0.932
0.932
1.738
0.400
2.137
2.835
4.921
7.755
18.280
1.429
19.709
6.522
0.546
7.067
6.712
3.219
9.931
BF
BF
BG
BF
BB
BF
BB
BF
BB
BF
BB
0.028
0.028
0.056
0.013
0.070
0.158
0.156
0.314
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Ohio
Northern West Virginia
Southern West Virginia
0.589 Pennsylvania
0.040 Pennsylvania
O29
0.273 Pennsylvania
0.018 Pennsylvania
0.291
0.267 Pennsylvania
0.099
0.366
Southern & Northern West
Virginia
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
12.618
12.618
Coal
Type
BB
0.420
OTff
Predominant Supply Region
Virginia
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.934 BF 0.220 Illinois
8.248 BG 0.474 Illinois
6.959 BB 0.204 Virginia & East Kentucky
19.142 0.897
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
12.852 BF 0.717 Pennsylvania
7.773 BB 0.258 East Kentucky
20.625 07575
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.943
BF
0.332 Ohio & Illinois
2.957 BB 0.098 East Kentucky
8.900 0.430
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.839 BF 0.103 Northern West Virginia
3.363 BB 0.117 Southern West Virginia
5.202 0.220
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.425 SF 0.080 West Montana
5.152 BB 0.175 East Kentucky
0.165 SA 0.010 West Montana
6.742 0.264
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.305 BB 0.041 South Colorado & East
Kentucky
1.305
0.041
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.834
2.834
BB
0.094
0.094
0.191
1.496
2.071
3.759
BD
BG
BB
0.011
0.086
0.061
0.157
Wyoming & South Colorado
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana & East Kentucky
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.864 BD 0.150 Indiana
3.650 BF 0.191 Illinois
7.767 BB 0.232 Wyoming & Southern West
Virginia
14.281 0.574
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.532
0.532
BG
0.018 Indiana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
Coal
Type
Quads Predominant Supply Region
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.469 BG 0.025 Illinois
10.594 BF 0.581 Illinois
2.242 SA 0.085 West Montana
0.892 SB 0.030 West Montana
14.197 0.721
0.546 BD 0.019 Illinois
4.147 BF 0.144 Illinois
1.549 BB 0.054 Wyoming & Oklahoma
6.243 0.217
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.091
1.243
1.254
5.588
3.126
2.111
5.237
SA
LA
LB
BB
SB
0.100 West Montana
0.070 North Dakota
0.071 North Dakota
0.241
0.094
0.116
0.210
Wyoming
Wyoming
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Missouri
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.648 BB 0.202 Wyoming
1.462 SA 0.080 West Montana
3.285 SB 0.180 West Montana
5.396 0.280
0.797 BB 0.025
2.142 SB 0.117
2.939 0.142
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Louisiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
10.662
7.428
18.090
Coal
Type
BB
SB
Quads Predominant Supply Region
,n i - ... . i i _•,••» •
South Colorado & Wyoming
West Montana
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
9.241 LF 0.519 Texas
29.488 BB 1.127 South Colorado
0.472 SB 0.026 West Montana
39.201 1.671
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
BB
SB
Wyoming
Wyoming
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.057 SA 0.412 West Montana
2.996 SB 0.175 West Montana
10.052 0.588
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.122
0.207
0.328
SA
SD
0.004
0.008
0.012
West Montana & Wyoming
Wyoming
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.298 BB 0.072 Utah
1.298 0.072
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Quads Predominant Supply Region
2.180
2.180
0.961
0.198
0.033
0.306
1.498
4.965
0.249
5.214
0.001
2.180
2.182
0.006
0.009
8.615
8.630
BB
BA
BB
BD
SA
BD
BA
BA
BD
BD
BB
SB
0.116
0.116
0.033
0.007
0.001
0.011
0.051
0.260
0.007
0.267
0.000
0.118
0.118
0.000
0.001
0.504
0.504
Utah
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico
Wyoming
New Mexico
New Mexico
New Mexico
New Mexico
Wyoming
Utah
West Montana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
227.7
192.8
14.0
434.5
307.1
204.4
12.9
524.4
138.6
329.9
29.2
448.0
477.2
391.0
35.4
594.3
629.7
4.0
71.8
76.4
45.5
5.6
6.6
61.8
103.9
47.5
1.9
203.3
221.6
TOTAL
634.6 1,445.0 1,766.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-10a
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1975
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
511.1
1990
18.8
66.7
141.8
0.4
227.7
135.3
4.2
34.3
19.0
192.8
1995
27.3
72.9
206.2
0.7
307.1
158.9
24.8
20.7
204.4
1.7
21.2
5.1
4.3
4.6
6.5
1.0
5.4
22.9
14.0
12.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
131.6
7.1
138.6
159.2
70.8
180.5
24.0
434.5
222.1
106.8
1.0
329.9
192.8
72.9
232.0
26.7
524.4
268.6
121.0
1.4
391.0
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur 0.3 0.3 10.3
Medium Sulfur 7.8 21.8 16.5
Low Sulfur 0.4 7.1 8.6
Total 8.6 29.2 35.4
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-10b
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 7.6
Low Sulfur 37.6
Total 45.2
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur 0.3
Medium Sulfur 15.4
Low Sulfur 38.0
Total 53.8
127.3
320.7
448.0
0.3
149.1
327.8
477.2
167.4
426.9
594.3
10.3
183.9
435.4
629.7
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
1.9
1.3
0.6
0.1
3.2
2.1
1.2
8.5
10.0
10.0
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
4.0
71.8
71.8
5.5
7.3
63.7
76.4
6.6
61.8
61.8
4.6
11.5
87.8
103.9
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
29.5
45.5
1.7
45.8
47.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-l-10c
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.7 1.9
Low Sulfur 0.8 - -
Total 4.5 5.7 1.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.6 4.7
High Sulfur 8.4 1.9 3.2
Medium Sulfur 30.4 102.0 79.0
Low Sulfur 11.7 93.8 134.8
Total 53.7 203.3 221.6
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 164.8 197.4
High Sulfur 147.8 295.2 354.9
Medium Sulfur 197.0 538.4 615.9
Low Sulfur 62.5 446.6 598.4
Total 509.0 1,445.0 1,766.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-I-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.07 1.12
Medium Sulfur 1.19 1.26
Low Sulfur 1.58 1.67
Regional Average 1.19 1.27
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.53 1.66
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 1.32 1.47
Low Sulfur 1.59 1.68
Regional Average 1.53 1.69
Midwest
High Sulfur 0.99 1.04
Medium Sulfur 1.31 1.38
Low Sulfur 1.62 1.71
Regional Average 1.10 1.15
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 0.44
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.88 0.98
Low Sulfur l.OB 1.19
Regional Average 1.01 1.11
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.40 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.53
Regional Average 0.48 0.50
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-I-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur 1.09 1.16
Medium Sulfur 1.30 1.38
Low Sulfur 1.50 1.59
Regional Average 1.25 1.33
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.64 1.06
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.64 1.06
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.97 1.08
Low Sulfur 1.06 1.19
Regional Average 1.08 1.20
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.72 0.98
Low Sulfur 0.64 0.85
Regional Average 0.67 0.86
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.86 0.90
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.86 0.90
National
High Sulfur 1.01 1.05
Medium Sulfur 1.00 1.09
Low Sulfur 0.74 0.79
Regional Average 1.02 1.08
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'S)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.40
1.99
—
1.41
1.33
1.53
1.87
1.53
1.31
1.58
1.91
1.59
1.19
1.51
1.74
1.46
1.21
1.40
1.69
1.40
1.14
1.05
1.18
1.13
—
0.75
1.46
1.20
1.47
1.68
—
1.55
1.36
1.60
1.97
1.61
1.36
1.65
2.06
1.69
1.24
1.57
1.84
1.54
1.27
1.43
1.79
1.44
1.19
1.06
1.22
1.17
—
1.16
1.54
1.45
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'S)
1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.68 0.96
Low Sulfur 0.90 0.91
Regional Average 0.81 0.93
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.34
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
New
Oriqin England
northern Appalachia 11.6
Central Appnlachla
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Heat
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-L3a
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER CURRHJT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS . S02/WBTO
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
97.9 87.5 30.5 - - . - -
23.8 93.8 62.0 11.7 0.7 0.9
6.1 - 7.9 - -
46.2 160.8 99.2 23.7 -
1.7 1.3 0.6 - 0.3
- 71.8
_ 29.0 - 0.2
24.0 46.3 69.0 190.6 102.0 16.0
21.6 - 4.4 23.9 18.4 8.1
8.1 J3.3 4.1
_ - - 5.6
Total
227.5
192.9
14.0
329.9
3.9
71.8
29.2
447.9
76.4
45.5
5.6
Total
11.6
121.7
233.6
298.9
166.8
128.1
295.9
153.9
o
Tl
n
o
39
TO
O
3J
34.1
1,444.6
-------
O
Tl
n
o
j>
TJ
O
X
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER CURRHTT STANDARD Of 1.2 LBS . SO2/MMBTU
CRY SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Northern Appalachia 13.2 123.5 119.1 50.8
Central Ap^lachia - 23.8
56 - 7-3
Southern Appalachia
68.1 167.5 129.8 23.8
Midwest
0.6 - !•' 2'
Central Meet
_ _
Gulf '
35.3
Eastern Northern Great Plains -
22 3 55-4 89-9
Western Northern Great Plains -
18.7 - 3-9
Rocky Mountains
_
Southwest ~
Northwest ~
Tob,! 13.2 149.3 290.0 330.0 204.7 156.4
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-13b
Central Mountain Pacific Total
306.6
_ _ 204.4
12.9
1.8 - - 391-°
IS - - 6-5
*• •
61.8 - - "••
0.1 - 35-4
241.4 146.7 38.6 594.3
51.0 19.3 10.9 103.8
13.8 31.1 2.7 47.6
1.9 1-9
371.3 197.2 54.1 1,766.2
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-14a
o
•n
o
TO
s
3)
»
nl
O
Origin
Hew England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast North Central
Bast South Central
Mest North Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1990 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/>*BTTJ
DRY SCRUBBING
(MH of baseload capacity)
(New Links)
Destination
New
England
Kiddle
Atlantic
5.04
South
Atlantic
2.94
1.78
East North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific Total
2.94
S.04
1.78
S.04
4.72
13.18
13.18
13.18
22.94
-------
o
•n
o
o
3)
•o
O
TS
m
O
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-14b
1995 INTER-RBGIOSAL BUSCTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER CURRHTT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2,/MMBTU
DRY SCSDBBING
(MW of base load capacity)
(New Links)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North East South West North West South
Origin England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
New Bngland ____ _ _ ____
Middle Atlantic - - 2.94 - - - ... 2.94
South Atlantic - 3.80 - - - - - 3.8o
Bast North Central -__. _ . ___.
Bast South Central .... _ _ _ _ _ _
West worth Central - 2.20 - - 2.20
West South Central _-__ _ _ ____
Mountain -__. _ . .. 12 8S 12 8S
Pacific ____ _ _ ____
Total - 3.80 2.94 2.20 - 12.85 21.79
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear 37.2 165.3 (66.9) 230.0 (66.9)
Coal 183.6 410.5 (56.9) 553.6 (53.5)
Existing* 183.6 197.9 (57.4) 197.9 (54.0)
NSPS - 76.4 (56.5) 76.4 (56.4)
ANSPS - 136.2 (56.5) 279.3 (52.3)
Oil/Gas 192.1 207.9 (18.7) 184.6 (13.0)
Steam* 147.3 141.0 (23.6) 105.2 (16.8)
Combined Cycle 2.7 5.5 (21.5) 7.5 (19.1)
Turbines 42.2 61.4 ( 7.3) 71.9 ( 6.9)
Hydro and Others 68.3 87.8 (44.0) 89.5 (43.5)
Total 481.2 871.3 (48.4) 1,057.7 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0 21.7
Coal 38.2 47.1 52.3
Oil/Gas 39.9 23.9 17.5
Other 14.2 10.0 8.5
* Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I~16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (55.5)
4.0 (55.5)
-
-
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
26.2 (65.3)
37.3 (56.3)
20.1 (57.8)
3.1 (70.0)
14.1 (51.3)
32.9 (21.2)
21.1 (29.8)
0.4 (22.6)
11.4 ( 5.3)
8.0 (46.1)
104.4 (46.7)
25.1
35.7
31.5
7.7
14.0 (70.0)
7.1 (36.8)
4.0 (36.6)
3.1 (37.1)
4.7 (17.2)
2.6 (25.0)
0.4 (20.5)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
24.7
16.4
10.1
36.4 (65.3)
57.7 (48.8)
20.1 (56.0)
3.1 (70.0)
34.5 (42.7)
21.2 (12.7)
8.2 (24.5)
0.4 ( 6.2)
12.6 ( 5.3)
9.0 (41.4)
124.4 (47.0)
29.3
46.4
17.0
7.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
32.2 (66.2)
84.6 (57.2)
46.9 (62.0)
8.0 (36.2)
29.7 (55.3)
36.1 (20.4)
22.7 (27.0)
0.6 (35.9)
12.7 ( 7.7)
10.4 (23.8)
163.2 (48.7)
19.7
51.8
22.1
6.4
1995
44.7 (66.2)
117.2 (54.1)
46.9 (60.0)
8.0 (38.1)
62.3 (51.7)
32.7 (13.7)
18.4 (18.2)
0.6 (21.3)
13.7 ( 7.4)
10.5 (23.7)
205.1 (48.7)
21.8
57.1
15.9
5.1
East North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
33.0 (67.7)
86.7 (54.6)
62.9 (57.9)
12.2 (45.1)
11.6 (46.4)
18.8 (17.8)
10.7 (24.5)
0.2 (19.1)
7.9 { 8.7)
1.7 (16.9)
140.1 (52.3)
23.6
61.9
13.4
1.2
45.9 (67.7)
100.1 (52.3)
62.9 (54.8)
12.2 (42.0)
25.0 (51.0)
17.0 (13.1)
9.4 (17.2)
0.2 ( 8.0)
7.4 ( 8.0)
1.7 (16.9)
164.6 (52.2)
27.9
60.8
10.3
1.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
61.8 (54.0)
30.2 (52.5)
8.4 (67.9)
23.2 (51.0)
12.6 ( 9.6)
3.0 (17.1)
9.7 ( 7.3)
6.7 (41.6)
104.2 (50.8)
22.1
59.3
12.1
6.4
1995
32.0 (67.4)
77.6 (52.4)
30.2 (49.2)
8.4 (67.9)
39.0 (51.5)
14.9 ( 8.0)
3.0 (11.2)
11.9 ( 7.2)
6.8 (40.9)
131.4 (50.4)
24.4
59.1
11.3
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
41.8 (51.1)
18.4 (50.8)
13.4 (53.3)
10.0 (48.6)
12.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.9 ( 8.0)
7.9 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
67.3 (44.3)
13.5
62.1
18.3
6.1
12.6 (65.0)
50.9 (51.0)
18.4 (45.8)
13.4 (55.0)
19.2 (53.2)
15.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.9 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
83.0 (44.5)
15.2
61.3
18.4
4.9
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
West South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
13.1 (65.0)
47.2 (64.8)
2.2 (64.8)
20.9 (65.0)
24.0 (64.7)
59.3 (19.7)
55.7 (20.4)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
122.1 (42.0)
10.7
38.7
48.6
2.0
1995
18.2 (65.0)
82.5 (54.9)
2.2 (64.8)
20.9 (65.0)
57.3 (50.9)
47.6 (12.5)
44.0 (12.9)
1.4 (10.4)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
148.7 (42.0)
12.2
55.5
32.0
1.7
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
4.3 (65.4)
41.9 (62.8)
11.8 (60.7)
10.0 (58.8)
20.1 (66.0)
6.4 (12.0)
2.2 (16.1)
0.5 (13.7)
3.6 ( 9.3)
9.2 (45.9)
61.6 (55.2)
7.0
68.0
10.4
14.9
5.9 (65.4)
52.1 (61.2)
11.8 (54.3)
10.0 (57.7)
30.3 (65.1)
6.5 ( 8.4)
1.6 ( 6.1)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
74.2 (54.9)
8.0
70.2
8.8
12.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
5.1 (58.6)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
3.3 (70.0)
20.7 (20.9)
13.6 (25.2)
1.9 (23.9)
5.3 ( 8.7)
42.4 (53.1)
82.6 (48.3)
17.4
6.2
25.1
51.3
165.3 (66.9)
410.5 (56.9)
197.9 (57.4)
76.4 (56.5)
136.2 (56.5)
207.9 (18.7)
141.0 (23.6)
5.5 (21.5)
61.4 ( 7.3)
87.8 (44.0)
871.3 (48.4)
19.0
47.1
23.9
10.0
20.1 (70.0)
10.4 (64.4)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.6 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.7 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.6 (49.5)
20.6
10.7
25.3
43.4
230.0 (66.9)
553.6 (53.5)
197.9 (54.0)
76.4 (56.4)
279.3 (52.3)
184.6 (13.0)
105.2 (16.8)
7.5 (19.1)
71.9 ( 6.9)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.7 (48.5)
21.7
52.3
17.5
8.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-L7a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.9) 3.315 (79.9)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - 3.070 (65.6)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.314 (79.9) 3.315 (79.9)
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - 3.070 (65.6)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 2.029 (90.0) 2.030 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 6.190 (42.6) 6.185 (43.4)
NSPS 3.077 (65.2) 3.077 (65.2)
ANSPS 9.673 (64.1) 27.636 (64.1)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 8.219 (54.3) 8.215 (54.9)
NSPS 3.077 (65.2) 3.077 (65.2)
ANSPS 9.673 (64.1) 27.636 (64.1)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 22.362 (53.4) 22.822 (53.1)
NSPS 1.931 (46.8) 1.932 (49.7)
ANSPS 16.395 (64.1) 31.746 (67.1)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 22.362 (53.4) 22.822 (53.1)
NSPS 1.931 (46.8) 1.932 (49.7)
ANSPS 16.395 (64.1) 31.746 (67.1)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990
GW
1995
GW
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.029 (90.0)
31.867
5.008
26.068
33.896
5.008
26.068
7.961
6.174
8.772
7.961
6.174
8.772
(54.1)
(58.1)
(64.1)
(56.2)
(58.1)
(64.1)
(63.2)
(58.3)
(52.7)
(63.2)
(58.3)
(52.7)
2.030 (90.0)
32.322
5.009
62.452
34.352
5.009
62.452
7.963
6.174
24.489
7.963
6.174
24.489
(54.0)
(59.2)
(65.7)
(56.1)
(59.2)
(65.7)
7.870
4.146
2.438
7.870
4.146
2.438
(74.3)
(33.0)
(64.1)
(74.3)
(33.0)
(64.1)
8.165
3.721
9.207
8.165
3.721
9.207
(71.3)
(31.1)
(64.1)
(71.3)
(31.1)
(64.1)
(63.2)
(58.3)
(59.9)
(63.2)
(58.3)
(59.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-l-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OP SC«2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS - - -
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.100 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 9.242 (64.1) 9.241 (64.1)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.100 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 9.242 (64.1) 9.241 (64.1)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 0.209 (90.0) 0.207 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing . 3.828 (27.7) 3.816 (27.8)
NSPS 9.312 (55.3) 9.308 (55.3)
ANSPS 8.464 (58.4) 8.766 (57.3)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.828 (27.7) 3.816 (27.8)
NSPS 9.312 (55.3) 9.308 (55.3)
ANSPS 8.673 (59.1) 8.973 (58.1)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
GW
0.557 (27.7)
0.557 (27.7)
0.209 (90.0)
1995
GW
0.006 (27.7)
0.006 (27.7)
0.207 (90.0)
3.828
9.312
9.021
3.828
9.312
9.230
2.029
0.209
52.637
34.741
55.541
54.666
34.741
55.750
(27.7)
(55.3)
(56.5)
(27.7)
(55.3)
(57.2)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(56.8)
(50.9)
(61.0)
(58.0)
(50.9)
(61.1)
3.816
9.308
8.772
3.816
9.308
8.979
2.030
0.207
53.374
34.307
114.161
55.404
34.307
114.368
(27.8)
(55.3)
(57.3)
(27.8)
(55.3)
(58.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(56.3)
(51.0)
(63.6)
(57.5)
(51.0)
(63.«6)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 897.2 870.2
Middle Atlantic 2,863.3 4,279.5
South Atlantic 5,260.3 8,256.6
EAST 9,020.8 13,406.3
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 2,809.9 3,622.3
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 3,703.9 5,721.7
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 212.2 225.5
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2,341.8 2,331.3
Mountain 1,221.2 1,168.2
Pacific 18.7 0.2
WEST 1,239.9 1,168.4
TOTAL 19,328.4 26,475.4
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-I-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. SO2/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
(109 $'S)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990
1995
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (GW)
Coal (GW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle (GW)
Turbine (GW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and Distribution
Scrubbers (GW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
304.6
140
150
13
,2 (128.2)
.7 (212.5)
54.3 ( 76.4)
96.4 (136.2)
.7 ( 40.1)
( 2,
1.3
12.4 ( 37
7.4
179.2
8.7 (139.5)
2.0 ( 34.7)
2.4 ( 55.8)
4.3 ( 49.0)
0.1
8)
3)
500.0
1,093.6
710.7
707.8
709.2
464.3
332.4
341.6
57.6
43.0
87.8
62.4
479.9
211.3 (192.8)
251.9 (355.7)
54.3 ( 76.4)
197.6 (279.3)
16.7 ( 48.1)
2.2 ( 4.8)
14.5 ( 43.3)
8.4
269.8
12.0 (213.8)
2.0 ( 34.3)
5.7 (114.4)
4.3 ( 49.7)
0.1
770.3
1,096.0
710.7
707.5
708.2
458.3
334.9
347.2
58.3
49.8
86.5
56.1
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-li-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential /Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
925.6
276.2
649.4
278.8
99.9
0.7
56.6
76.9
1,438.6
1,178.5
353.5
825.0
321.5
104.1
0.4
88.4
80.5
1,773.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
•n
o
3)
•o
o
•3)
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(105 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
68.7
-
-
60.9
352
184
-
0
2
2
.1
5.4
346.7
.5
.2
.6
.7
375
2
31
0
28
3
.9
174.2
201.7
.9
.2
.5
.0
.8
197
91
-
-
25
9
.6
96.6
101.0
.5
.9
.4
925
278
99
0
56
76
.6
276
649
.8
.9
.7
.6
.9
.2
.4
129.6
542.2
442.4
324.4
1,438.6
-------
o
•n
I
o
3)
TJ
O
3)
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.5
-
542
213
-
0
.0
5.3
536.7
.2
.1
5.3
63.8
135.3
2
763
.8
.4
425
2
32
0
36
4
501
.0
234.5
190.5
.1
.7
.3
.9
.1
.0
211
106
-
-
46
9
373
.5
113.7
97.9
.2
.3
.7
.7
1,178
321
104
0
88
80
1,773
.5
353.
825.
.5
.1
.4
.4
.5
.5
5
0
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
139.1
109.0
150.2
248.0
106.3
36.4
50.4
193.0
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9 1,480.9 1,449.9
101.0 101.0
360.5 762.6
371.1 307.7 108.8
2,207.6 2,250.1 2,422.3
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,102.7
172.7
701.3
476.5
3,036.3
184.6
1,566.7
274.3
3,378.3 4,453.2
5,061.9
East
Coal Plants
Existing 4,516.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1,219.6
Total 5ri36.1
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4
Total 6,885.2
4,722.7 4,592.5
273.7 285.6
1,061.8 2,365.7
893.2 433.5
6,951.3 7,677.2
4,794.4
281.9
248.1
117.8
5,442.2
4,536.1
256.1
584.7
79.8
5,456.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-3b
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,263.0 2,178.8
NSPS - 242.5 262.9
ANSPS - 619.5 1,037.0
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 74.5 59.6
Total 3,394.7 3,199.4 3,538.3
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,763.5 1,689.5
NSPS - 360.3 374.1
ANSPS - 248.4 557.4
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 33.3 38.2
Total 1,532.9 2,405.5 2,657.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 150.0 150.0
NSPS - 696.4 696.3
ANSPS - 780.7 1,479.1
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.7 305.3
Total 412.7 2,172.8 2,630.7
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 341.1 294.9
NSPS - 159.5 151.9
ANSPS - 519.7 800.4
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 20.6 12.4
Total 358.1 1,040.9 1,259.6
Pac i f ic
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 38.3 35.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 123.0 308.5
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 97.6 10.7
Total 195.7 276.4 468.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1975
380.5
173.3
553.8
1990
1995
379.4
177.0
642.7
118.2
330.6
169.4
2,279.5
23.1
1,317.2 1,728.1
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
16,915.4
1,789.9
18,705.3
14,072.8
2,031.8
3,601.2
1,782.6
21,488.4
13,477.3
2,044.4
7,132.8
1,033.6
23,688.0
Source for 1975 data:
EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICIPATE HUSSIONS
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 UBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
NO TSP NO TSP
it "~~~ K
Oil/Gas 1,279.9 154.4 773.3 92.4
Coal 7,359.8 1,000.3 9,197.7 1,266.5
Existing 3,859.5 507.0 3,581.7 471.6
NSPS 1,286.6 181.0 1,291.4 181.5
ANSPS 2^213.7 312.3 4^324.6 613.4
Total 8,639.7 1,154.7 9,970.9 1,358.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal 9.3 20.01 25.33
Existing 9.3 10.14 9.43
NSPS - 3.62 3.63
ANSPS - 6.25 12.27
Oil/Gas 6.2 4.10 2.65
Nuclear 1.7 9.69 13.48
Hydro and Other 2.0 3.39 3.41
Total 19.2 37.19 44.86
Percent of Total
Coal 48.4 53.8 56.5
Oil/Gas 32.3 11.0 5.9
Nuclear 8.9 26.1 30.0
Hydro and Other 10.4 9.1 7.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995_
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
EAST
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.377 0.265
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.154 0.141
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.109 0.131
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.672
Mountain 0.249 0.085
Pacific 0.787 0.421
WEST
TOTAL
Oil for Coal Transportation
TOTAL
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.198 0.148
Medium Sulfur 0.004 0.052
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.202 0.200
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.173 0.155
Medium Sulfur 1.444 1.582
Low Sulfur 0.250 0.741
Total 1.076 1.866 2.478
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.796 1.119
Medium Sulfur 2.022 2.709
Low Sulfur 1.115 1.418
Total 1.789 3.932 5.246
EAST
High Sulfur 1.166 1.423
Medium Sulfur 3.470 4.342
Low Sulfur 1.365 2.159
Total 2.912 6.001 7.924
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.527 1.698
Medium Sulfur 1.527 1.494
Low Sulfur 1.100 1.329
Total 2.670 4.154 4.521
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.468 1.411
Medium Sulfur 0.526 0.931
Low Sulfur 0.843 1.133
Total 1.328 2.837 3.474
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.390 0.378
Medium Sulfur 0.694 0.658
Low Sulfur 0.835 1.333
Total 0.783 1.918 2.369
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.903 0.903
Low Sulfur 1.690 2.854
Total 0.119 2.593 3.757
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.881 0.853
Low Sulfur 1.357 1.857
Total 0.615 2.238 2.710
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.063 0.031
Low Sulfur 0.202 0.543
Total 0.069 0.265 0.574
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.944 0.884
Low Sulfur 1.559 2.400
Total 0.685 2.503 3.284
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 4.550 4.909
Medium Sulfur 8.064 9.212
Low Sulfur 7.391 11.208
Total 8.719 20.006 25.329
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Virgi.nia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
1.384
0.445
1.829
3.159
4.939
8.098
1.005
8.111
9.116
Coal
Type
BF
BG
BF
BB
BF
BB
0.046
0.015
0.061
0.156
0.180
0.336
4.671
15.052
19.723
2.259
4.816
7.074
BF
BB
BF
BB
0.238
0.416
0.655
0.120
0.160
0.281
0.054
0.250
0.304
Predominant Supply Region
Ohio
Ohio
Northern West Virginia
Southern West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Pennsyulvania &
Northern West Virginia
Maryland
Southern West Virginia
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
Type
12.637
12.637
4.801
7.439
6.959
19.199
11.213
9.412
20.625
0.034
5.453
2.952
8.439
5.202
5.202
5.152
1.596
6.748
BB
BF
BG
BB
BF
BB
BF
BG
BB
BB
BB
SA
0.415
0.415
0.293
0.428
0.204
0.904
0.638
0.349
0.987
0.002
0.314
0.098
0.414
0.220
0.220
0.175
0.093
0.268
Quads Predominant Supply Region
Southern West Virginia
Illinois
Illinois
East Kentucky & Virginia
Pennsylvania
East Kentucky
Illinois
Illinois
East Kentucky
Southern West Virginia
East Kentucky
West Montana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Quads Predominant Supply Region
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.437
0.437
2.533
0.301
2.834
BB
BB
SA
0.013 East Kentucky
0.013
0.084 Wyoming & South Colorado
0.010 West Montana
0.095
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.674
2.064
3.736
BG
0.096 Indiana
BB 0.373 Indiana
0.157
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.483 BB 0.241 Wyoming
6.802 SB 0.373 Wyoming
14.284 0.614
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.527
0.527
BG
0.018 Indiana
0.018
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.536 BG 0.243 Illinois
5.712 SF 0.319 Wyoming
2.942 SB 0.161 Wyoming
14.190 0.724
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
Coal
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part) 1.012 BD
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub) 5.206 BB
Total 6.218
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part) -
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub) 3.091 SB
ANSPS (No Scrub) 1.243 LA
ANSPS (No Scrub) 1.254 LB
Total 5.588
0.035 Alabama
0.181 Wyoming
0.216
0.100 West Montana
0.070 North Dakota
0.071 North Dakota
0.241
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.007
2.231
5.237
BB
SB
Wyoming
Wyoming
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Missour i
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.648
6.096
6.744
0.886
2.142
3.027
BB
SB
BB
SB
0.020
0.334
0.354
0.027
0.117
0.145
Wyoming
West Montana
South Colorado & Wyoming
West Montana
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Louisiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
8.799
9.292
18.090
BB
SB
Utah
West Montana
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
Predominant Supply Region
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.001
8.293
30.452
0.472
39.218
SF
LF
BB
SB
0.000
0.478
Wyoming
Texas
1.174 South Colorado
0.026 West Montana
1.678
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.211
0.360
7.572
SB
BB
0.397
0.012
0.409
Wyoming
New Mexico
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
6.762
3.349
10.111
SA
SB
0.395
0.196
0.591
West Montana
West Montana
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.329 SD 0.020 Wyoming
0.329
0.020
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.298
0.664
1.962
BB
SB
0.072
0.039
0.111
Utah
West Montana
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.880 BB 0.161 Utah
2.880 0.161
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-ll-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
0.364
0.021
0.269
0.654
BA
BB
BD
0.012
0.001
0.009
0.023
0.064
3.859
0.474
4.397
BB
BD
BA
Quads Predominant Supply Region
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico
New Mexico
New Mexico
New Mexico
0.003
0.205
0.014
0.223
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.178 BD 0.118 New Mexico
2.178 0.118
0.005 BD 0.000 Wyoming
0.009
8.783
8.798
BB
SB
0.001
0.513
0.514
Utah
West Montana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
1975
138.6
8
45
53
1990
347.9
29.4
433.2
462.6
1995
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
196.4
207.9
15.0
419.3
253.5
222.4
13.3
489.2
404.1
35.4
619.7
655.2
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
4.3
68.9
87.0
45.0
5.6
210.8
8.5
61.8
110.3
47.8
1.9
230.3
TOTAL
634.6 1,440.7 1,778.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-10a
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
23.3
63.5
109.2
0.5
196.4
148.7
4.2
34.6
20.4
207.9
30.6
67.5
154.6
0.7
253.5
177.0
23.6
21.7
222.4
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
5.5
4.3
5.2
6.5
0.7
6.1
22.9
15.0
13.3
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
177.5
67.7
148.1
26.1
214.2
67.5
179.0
28.5
392.1
419.3
489.2
MIDWEST
Metallurgical - - -
High Sulfur 131.6 248.7 291.2
Medium Sulfur 7.1 97.7 111.2
Low Sulfur - 1.4 1.7
Total 138.6 347.9 404.1
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 8.6 29.4 35.4
0.3
7.8
0.4
6.6
15.6
7.1
10.3
16.6
8.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-10b
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
9.5
10.0
10.0
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
109.0
324.2
433.2
6.6
124.6
331.3
462.6
4.3
68.9
68.9
5.5
6.8
74.6
156.3
463.5
619.7
10.3
172.9
472.0
655.2
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.1
4.9
2.3
1.2
8.5
61.8
61.8
4.6
10.0
95.7
87.0
110.3
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
29.0
45.0
1.7
46.1
47.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-10c
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.6 1.9
Low Sulfur 0.8 - -
Total 4.5 5.6 1.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.7 4.7
High Sulfur 8.4 1.9 4.9
Medium Sulfur 30.4 98.6 77.7
Low Sulfur 11.7 104.6 143.0
Total 53.7 210.8 230.3
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 183.2 218.9
High Sulfur 147.8 325.0 374.0
Medium Sulfur 197.0 469.1 540.7
Low Sulfur 62.5 463.5 645.2
Total 509.0 1,440.7 1,778.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.07 1.11
Medium Sulfur 1.16 1.21
Low Sulfur 1.62 1.70
Regional Average 1.19 1.25
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.13 1.19
Medium Sulfur 1.31 1.38
Low Sulfur 1.60 1.68
Regional Average 1.56 1.66
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.29 1.50
Low Sulfur 1.64 1.71
Regional Average 1.55 1.71
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.01 1.11
Medium Sulfur 1.27 1.24
Low Sulfur 1.66 1.69
Regional Average 1.09 1.46
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 1.08
Medium Sulfur 0.43 1.33
Low Sulfur 0.51 1.74
Regional Average 0.45 1.16
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.89 0.98
Low Sulfur 1.12 1.22
Regional Average 1.04 1.14
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.42 0.40
Low Sulfur 0.54 0.55
Regional Average 0.51 0.51
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-Il-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'S)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.29 1.31
Gulf
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.56 0.99
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.56 0.99
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.71 0.99
Low Sulfur 0.64 0.85
Regional Average 0.67 0.85
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.89 0.91
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.89 0.91
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.40 1.46
Medium Sulfur 1.99 1.59
Low Sulfur — _m_
Regional Average 1.41 1.49
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.33 1.36
Medium Sulfur 1.47 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.98 2.11
Regional Average 1.53 1.68
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.67 1.71
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.21 1.28
Medium Sulfur 1.48 1.54
Low Sulfur 1.78 1.85
Regional Average 1.46 1.54
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.42
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-ll-12b
DELIVERS) COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.70 0.94
Low Sulfur 0.96 0.93
Regional Average 0.86 0.93
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
O
New
Origin England
Northern Appalachia 11.6
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-13a
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. SO2/M
-------
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Heat
Golf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western northern Great Plains
Kocky Mountains
Southwest
Hot times t
Total
DRAFT
May 30, 1»79
Page C-II-13b
1995 NATIONAL GOAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER CURRaiT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. SO2/>*CBTD
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Hew Middle South Bast North Bast South West North Heat South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.9 131.8 81.8 __----
31.8 137.5 65.2 7.7 0.7 - -
4.7 6.6 - - -
75.3 183.6 123.1 22.1 -
- 1.6 3.5 3.8
_ - - 61.8
_ - 35.3 - 0.1
_ 25.4 70.2 94.5 243.4 147.1 39.1
_ 25. 0 - 4.2 51.5 18.8 10.9
_ - - 14.0 31.2 2.7
___ _ - - - -1.9
11.9 163.6 299.3 299.2 209.2 160.3 374.5 197.2 54.6
Total
225.5
242.9
11.3
404.1
8.9
61.8
35.4
619.7
110.4
47.9
1.9
1,769.8
o
o
o
3D
s
-------
o
o
o
3)
•o
O
•33
m
o
DRAFT
Hay 30, 1979
Page C-II-14a
1990 INTER-RBGIOBAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LSS. SO2/»tBTU
MET SCABBING
(106 tons)
Destination
New Kiddle South Bast North Bast South West North Meat South
Origin England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
Hew England _ _ - - - - _-_.
Middle Atlantic - - 3.71 - - - - - 3.71
South Atlantic - 5.06 - - - - - 5.06
East North Central - _ _ - - - _.__
Bast South Central - - 1.85 - - - - 1.85
West North Central - 1.34 - - - 1.34
West South Central ____ _ _ ____
Mountain .... . - - - 13.00 13.00
Pacific - - _j; - - - - - - -
Total - 5.06 5.56 1.34 - 13.00 24.96
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-14b
1995 INTER-REGIONAL BI£CTRICIT7 TRANSMISSION
ONDHl CORRBiT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. SO2/>#CBTO
WBT SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
Origin
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast North Central
But South Central
Nest Berth Central
west South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
Middle
Atlantic
3.82
South
Atlantic
3.71
Bast North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
3.45
Mountain Pacific Total
3.71
3.82
3.45
12.67 12.67
3.82 3.71
3.45
12.67 23.65
o
O
O
•a
•o
O
•33
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
1975
37.2
183.6
183.6
192.1
147.3
2.7
42.2
68.3
1990
481.2
165.3 (66.9)
406.3 (57.3)
197.9 (58.0)
75.9 (56.4)
132.5 (56.7)
211.8 (18.9)
140.9 (23.7)
5.3 (21.9)
65.6 ( 8.2)
87.8 (44.0)
871.1 (48.4)
1995
230.0 (66.9)
551.6 (53.6)
197.9 (53.9)
75.9 (56.5)
277.7 (52.6)
186.6 (13.2)
106.6 (17.0)
7.5 (20.0)
72.5 ( 6.9)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.4 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0
Coal 38.2 46.6
Oil/Gas • 39.9 24.3
Other 14.2 10.1
21.7
52.2
17.6
8.5
* Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
10.1 (70.0)
3.9 (56.4)
3.9 (56.4)
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.3
15.2
34.2
11.3
1995
14.0 (70.0)
5.7 (38.1)
3.9 (38.2)
6.0 (20.9)
3.8 (27.4)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
49.0
19.9
21.0
10.1
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
26.2 (65.3)
37.4 (57.2)
20.1 (60.2)
3.1 (67.1)
14.2 (50.8)
33.6 (21.3)
21.1 (29.8)
0.4 (29.2)
12.1 ( 6.1)
8.0 (46.1)
105.1 (46.9)
24.9
35.6
31.9
7.6
36.4 (65.3)
58.1 (49.2)
20.1 (56.8)
3.1 (67.1)
34.9 (43.3)
21.6 (13.0)
8.2 (25.0)
0.4 (12.9)
13.0 ( 5.4)
9.0 (41.4)
125.1 (47.1)
29.1
46.4
17.3
7.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
32.2 (66.2)
81.6 (57.9)
46.9 (63.1)
8.0 (42.8)
26.7 (53.3)
38.3 (20.6)
22.7 (27.0)
0.6 (35.9)
15.0 (10.2)
44.7 (66.2)
116.5 (54.0)
46.9 (59.3)
8.0 (46.2)
61.6 (51.0)
32.7 (13.8)
18.3 (18.3)
0.6 (21.3)
13.8 ( 7.4)
Hydro and Others 10.4 (23.8) 10.5 (23.7)
Total 162.4 (48.6) 204.4 (48.7)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 19.8 21.9
Coal 50.2 57.0
Oil/Gas 23.6 16.0
Other 6.4 5.1
East North Central
Nuclear 33.0 (67.7) 45.9 (67.7)
Coal 86.1 (54.7) 98.5 (52.2)
Existing 62.9 (57.9) 62.9 (54.6)
NSPS 11.9 (47.7) 11.9 (42.1)
ANSPS 11.3 (44.0) 23.7 (51.1)
Oil/Gas 19.1 (17.9) 17.3 (13.2)
Steam 10.7 (25.0) 9.5 (17.5)
Combined Cycle 0.2 (19.1) 0.2 ( 8.0)
Turbines 8.2 ( 8.7) 7.5 ( 8.0)
Hydro and Others 1.7 (16.9) 1.7 (16.9)
Total 139.9 (52.3) 163.4 (52.1)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 23.6 28.1
Coal 61.5 60.3
Oil/Gas 13.7 10.6
Other 1.2 1.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
East South Central
Nuclear 23.0 (67.4) 32.0 (67.4)
Coal 61.2 (54.5) 77.6 (52.4)
Existing 30.2 (53.0) 30.2 (49.4)
NSPS 8.4 (58.2) 8.4 (63.8)
ANSPS 22.6 (55.0) 39.0 (52.3)
Oil/Gas 13.3 (10.2) 14.9 ( 7.9)
Steam 3.0 (17.1) 3.0 (11.2)
Combined Cycle
Turbines 10.4 ( 8.2) 12.0 { 7.2)
Hydro and Others 6.7 (41.6) 6.8 (40.9)
Total 104.2 (50.8) 131.3 (50.4)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 22.1 24.4
Coal 58.7 59.1
Oil/Gas 12.8 11.3
Other 6.4 5.2
West North Central
Nuclear 9.1 (65.0) 12.6 (65.0)
Coal 42.1 (51.3) 52.2 (51.5)
Existing 18.4 (51.3) 18.4 (45.9)
NSPS 13.2 (53.0) 13.2 (55.1)
ANSPS 10.4 (49.0) 20.6 (54.1)
Oil/Gas 12.3 ( 7.0) 15.3 ( 7.0)
Steam 4.3 ( 6.9) 4.3 ( 6.9)
Combined Cycle 0.1 ( 8.0) 0.1 ( 8.0)
Turbines 7.9 ( 7.0) 11.0 ( 7.0)
Hydro and Others 4.1 (41.2) 4.1 (41.2)
Total 67.5 (44.5) 84.2 (44.9)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 13.5 15.0
Coal 62.3 62.0
Oil/Gas 18.2 18.2
Other 6.1 4.9
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
West South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
13.1 (65.0)
47.3 (64.8)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.0)
24.1 (64.7)
59.3 (19.7)
55.7 (20.4)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
122.2 (42.0)
10.7
38.7
48.5
2.0
1995
18.3 (65.0)
80.5 (54.9)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.4)
57.3 (50.9)
47.6 (12.5)
44.0 (12.9)
1.4 (10.4)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
148.8 (42.0)
12.3
54.1
32.0
1.7
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
4.3 (65.4)
41.5 (62.9)
11.8 (60.7)
10.0 (58.4)
19.7 (66.4)
6.4 (12.1)
2.2 (16.3)
0.5 (13.7)
3.6 ( 9.3)
9.2 (45.9)
61.3 (55.3)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.0
Coal 67.6
Oil/Gas 10.4
Other 4.1
5.9 (65.4)
51.9 (61.2)
11.8 (52.8)
10.0 (56.0)
30.1 (66.3)
6.5 ( 9.0)
1.6 ( 6.1)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
73.9 (54.9)
8.0
70.2
8.8
13.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
Percent of Total
Nuclear 17.4
Coal 6.4
Oil/Gas 25.0
Other 51.2
1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
14.4 (70.0)
5.3 (52.9)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
3.5 (70.0)
20.7 (20.9)
13.6 (25.2)
1.7 (23.8)
5.4 ( 9.2)
42.4 (53.1)
82.8 (48.4)
20.1 (70.0)
10.6 (64.5)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.8 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.8 (49.5)
20.6
10.8
25.3
43.4
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
165.3 (66.9)
406.3 (57.3)
197.9 (58.0)
75.9 (56.4)
132.5 (56.7)
211.8 (18.9)
140.9 (23.7)
5.3 (21.7)
65.6 ( 8.2)
87.8 (44.0)
871.1 (48.4)
19.0
46.6
24.3
10.1
230.0 (66.9)
551.6 (53.6)
197.9 (53.8)
75.9 (56.5)
277.7 (52.6)
186.6 (13.2)
106.6 (17.0)
7.5 (20.0)
72.5 ( 6.9)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.4 (48.5)
21.7
52.2
17.6
8.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-ll-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Exi sting
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
GW
3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.8)
2.245 (90.0)
3.974 (57.3)
2.810 (64.1)
6.724 (64.1)
6.219 (69.1)
2.810 (64.1)
6.724 (64.1)
2.555 (90.0)
7.426 (56.7)
1.932 (71.7)
4.089 (69.2)
9.981 (65.2)
1.932 (71.7)
4.089 (69.2)
1995
GW
3.315 (79.9)
1.829 (67.0)
3.315 (79.9)
1.829 (67.0)
2.245 (90.0)
3.972 (57.3)
2.808 (64.1)
10.089 (64.1)
6.217 (69.1)
2.808 (64.1)
10.089 (64.1)
2.555 (90.0)
7.387 (57.3)
1.932 (69.9)
24.458 (67.7)
9.942 (65.7)
1.932 (69.9)
24.458 (67.7)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 IBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 14.715 (62.1) 14.674 (62.4)
NSPS 4.742 (67.2) 4.740 (66.5)
ANSPS 10.813 (66.0) 36.376 (66.7)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 19.515 (69.0) 19.474 (69.2)
NSPS 4.742 (67.2) 4.740 (66.5)
ANSPS 10.813 (66.0) 36.376 (66.7)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - ~
ANSPS -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.419 (76.0) 7.550 (74.3)
NSPS 3.353 (61.1) 3.352 (61.0)
ANSPS 0.751 (76.0) 5.487 (76.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.419 (76.0) 7.550 (74.3)
NSPS 3.353 (61.1) 3.352 (61.0)
ANSPS 0.751 (76.0) 5.487 (76.0)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.971 (76.0) 4.968 (76.0)
NSPS 5.898 (73.1) 7.314 (55.5)
ANSPS 6.846 (71.2) 14.459 (68.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.971 (76.0) 4.968 (76.0)
NSPS 5.898 (73.1) 7.314 (55.5)
ANSPS 6.846 (71.2) 14.459 (68.0)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS - - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS - - - -
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.096 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.294 (64.1) 8.294 (64.1)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.096 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.294 (64.1) 8.294 (64.1)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS . - - -
ANSPS - - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.313 (58.5) 9.308 (58.5)
ANSPS 7.076 (62.2) 7.083 (62.1)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.313 (58.5) 9.308 (58.5)
ANSPS 7.076 (62.2) 7.083 (62.1)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON.ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990
GW
1995
GW
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.552 (27.7)
0.552 (27.7)
4.800 (90.0)
0.005 (27.7)
0.005 (27.7)
1.994
9.313
7.628
1.994
9.313
7.628
(27.7)
(58.5)
(59.7)
(27.7)
(58.5)
(59.7)
1.992
9.308
7.088
1.992
9.308
7.088
(27.7)
(58.5)
(62.1)
(27.7)
(58.5)
(62.1)
4.800 (90.0)
30.210
33.402
34.297
35.010
33.402
34.297
(65.6)
(58.9)
(65.3)
(68.9)
(58.9)
(65.3)
30.293
34.810
71.704
35.093
34.810
71.704
(65.3)
(55.6)
(66.9)
(68.7)
(55.6)
(66.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tonS)
1990 1995
New England 896.8 774.0
Middle Atlantic 2,617.3 2,897.8
South Atlantic 3,007.7 6,451.1
EAST 6,521.8 10,122.9
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 3,104.1 4,149.4
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 4,433.3 5,105.0
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 211.4 226.6
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2,238.8 2,238.5
Mountain 1,141.0 1,113.2
Pacific 18.6 0.2
WEST 1,159.6 1,113.4
TOTAL 17,668.8 22,955.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-II-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OP 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WET SCRUBBING
(109 $.8)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 302.1 479.4
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal. (GW) 147.6 (208.4) 251.1 (353.6)
NSPS 54.0 ( 75.9) 54.0 ( 75.9)
ANSPS 93.6 (132.5) 197.1 (277.7)
Oil/Gas 14.3 ( 41.9) 17.0 ( 49.0)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.2 ( 2.6) 2.2 ( 4.8)
Turbine (GW) 13.1 ( 39.3) 14.8 ( 44.1)
Long Distance Transmission 7.1 8.7
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.1 269.8
Scrubbers (GW) 11.2 ( 97.0) 15.2 (135.9)
NSPS 3.4 ( 33.4) 3.4 ( 34.8)
ANSPS 3.7 ( 34.3) 7.8 ( 71.7)
Retrofit 4.0 ( 29.3) 4.0 ( 29.4)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.1 0-1
Total 499.6 773.1
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 711.5 711.5
ANSPS 706.4 709.8
Total 708.3 710.1
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 461.5 458.3
Turbines 333.0 335.6
Total 341.3 346.9
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 101.8 97.7
ANSPS 107.9 108.8
Retrofit 136.5 136.1
Total 115.5 111.8
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
922.3
477.1
445.2
278.6
100.0
0.7
56.2
76.8
1,434.5
1,162.5
741.5
421.0
320.2
104.1
0.4
88.8
80.5
1,756.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
o
3J
s
35
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REM3VAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
-
68.7
-
-
60.8
218.0
50.3
167.7
184.6
-
0.3
2.6
2.8
478.9
305.7
173.1
-
31.3
0.5
33.3
3.9
225.4
121.0
104.4
94.0
-
-
20.5
9.3
922.3
477.
445.
278.6
100.0
0.7
56.2
76.8
1
2
129.5
408.3
547.6
349.2
1,434.5
-------
o
o
o
3J
T)
O
31
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.5
-
-
63.9
257
213
-
0
5
2
.4
93.6
163.8
.6
.1
.3
.9
633
2
32
0
36
4
.6
478.9
154.6
.0
.6
.3
.1
.1
271.5
169.0
102.5
104.6
-
-
47.4
9.7
1,162
320
104
0
88
80
.5
741
421
.2
.1
.4
.8
.5
.5
.0
135.4
479.3
708.7
433.2
1,756.5
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 48.4 139.8 108.1
NSPS -
ANSPS - - 16.3
Oil/Gas Plants 101.8 108.7 51.6
Total 150.2 248.5 176.0
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 1,835.9 1,476.8 1,467.3
NSPS - 97.2 101.1
ANSPS - 127.5 226.6
Oil/Gas Plants 371.1 322.7 298.9
Total 2,207.6 2,024.1 2,093.9
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 2,632.2 3,124.4 3,074.7
NSPS - 188.4 198.2
ANSPS - 421.1 792.9
Oil/Gas Plants 746.1 476.0 281.7
Total 3,378.3 4,209.9 4,347.4
East
Coal Plants
Existing 4,516.5 4,741.0 4,650.1
NSPS - 285.6 299.3
ANSPS - 548.6 1,035.8
Oil/Gas Plants 1,219.6 907.4 632.2
Total 5,136.1 6,482.6 6,617.4
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 4,998.4 4,770.8
NSPS - 330.5 352.8
ANSPS - 100.5 320.7
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 120.5 83.7
Total 6,885.2 5,549.9 5,528.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-3b
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,330.6 2,198.0
NSPS - 236.4 232.1
ANSPS - 376.2 603.5
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 79.9 59.7
Total 3,394.7 2,973.0 3,093.4
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,946.9 1,826.2
NSPS - 405.4 416.8
ANSPS - 53.7 163.6
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 42.4 36.2
Total 1,532.9 2,448.4 2,442.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 149.8 149.8
NSPS - 693.0 693.0
ANSPS - 313.2 553.8
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.8 305.j
Total 412.7 1,701.7 1,702.0
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 355.8 322.2
NSPS - 176.5 176.3
ANSPS - 201.3 327.4
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 24.7 13.0
Total 358.1 758.2 838.9
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 77.4 35.6
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 19.6 65.8
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 100.8 106.8
Total 195.7 215.3 225.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-lII-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 433.2 357.8
NSPS - 194.0 193.8
ANSPS - 220.9 393.2
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 125.5 119.8
Total 553.8 973.5 1,064.6
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,599.6 13,952.6
NSPS - 2,144.9 2,187.8
ANSPS - 1,563.1 3,070.6
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,821.4 1,237.0
Total 18,705.3 20,128.9 20,448.0
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
NO TSP
1990 1995 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas 1,304.7 925.8 158.5
Coal 7,030.5 8,389.5 794.5
Existing 3,914.1 3,601.0 516.1
NSPS 1,365.1 1,394.4 192.2
ANSPS 1,751.4 3^394.1 86.1
Total 8,335.2 9,315.3 953.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 IBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
9.3
9.3
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.9
10.3
3.8
5.7
4.2
9.7
3.4
25.0
9.5
3.9
11.5
3.1
13.5
3.4
Total 19.2 37.2 45.0
Percent of Total
Coal 48.4 53.5 55.6
Oil/Gas 32.3 11.3 6.9
Nuclear 8.9 26.1 30.0
Hydro and Other 10.4 9.1 7.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
EAST
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
Oil for Coal Transportation
TOTAL
1975
0.425
0.824
1.010
2.259
0.249
0.787
1.036
6.175
1990
0.241
0.786
0.804
1.831
0.097
0.445
0.542
1995
0.124
0.706
0.493
1.323
0.317
0.112
0.289
2.162
0.395
0.166
0.131
1.185
0.286
0.142
0.131
0.672
0.071
0.474
0.545
4.525
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING? 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.198 0.053
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.147
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.200
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.270 0.343
Medium Sulfur 1.435 1.664
Low Sulfur 0.045 0.052
Total 1.076 1.751 2.059
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.279 1.576
Medium Sulfur 2.481 3.467
Low Sulfur 0.293 0.284
Total 1.789 4.052 5.327
EAST
High Sulfur 1.747 2.066
Medium Sulfur 3.921 5.183
Low Sulfur 0.338 0.336
Total 2.912 6.006 7.585
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.411 1.796
Medium Sulfur 2.042 2.111
Low Sulfur 0.767 0.751
Total 2.670 4.219 4.658
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.587 2.029
Medium Sulfur 0.840 1.148
Low Sulfur 0.373 0.298
Total 1.328 2.800 3.474
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.467 0.432
Medium Sulfur 0.784 1.241
Low Sulfur 0.572 0.531
Total 0.783 1.823 2.203
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.524 2.189
Low Sulfur 1.073 1.584
Total 0.119 2.597 3.773
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.156 1.561
Low Sulfur 1.068 1.140
Total 0.615 2.224 2.701
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.107 0.059
Low Sulfur 0.132 0.517
Total 0.069 0.239 0.577
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.263 1.620
Low Sulfur 1.200 1.657
Total 0.685 2.463 3.278
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 5.212 6.321
Medium Sulfur 10.374 13.493
Low Sulfur 4.323 5.157
Total 8.719 19.908 24.972
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
1.323
0.401
1.724
BF
BG
3.334
3.368
6.702
BD
BF
Quads Predominant Supply Region
0.044
0.013
0.058
5.076
0.415
1.632
7.123
BD
BF
BG
0.161
0.024
0.094
0.280
0.093
0.183
0.276
Ohio
Ohio
Southern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Pennsylvania
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Virginia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
4.816
1.674
0.577
7.067
7.769
1.022
8.791
BD
BF
BG
BD
BF
0.161 Pennsylvania
0.091 Pennsylvania
0.031 Pennsylvania and Ohio
0.283
0.241
0.056
0.296
Southern West Virginia &
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.016 BB
0.016
Southern West Virginia
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
12.351
0.140
12.491
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
BD
BG
0.402
0.008
0.410
East Kentucky
West Kentucky
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
6.959
14.214
21.174
BD
BG
0.205
0.823
1.027
Illinois
Illinois
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.773 BD 0.259 Alabama
7.359 BF 0.426 Pennsylvania
3,402 BG 0.197 Northern West Virginia
18.534 0.882
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.952
0.009
3.739
BD
BF
BG
0.099
0.001
0.216
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
6.700
0.316
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
4.375
0.723
5.098
BD
BF
0.153
0.042
0.195
East Kentucky
Northern West Virginia
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.517
5.037
6.554
BD
BG
0.052
0.292
Illinois
Illinois
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
1.305
1.305
0.622
0.622
3.701
7.358
6.923
14.281
0.527
0.527
Coal
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
BD 0.041 Illinois & South Colorado
BD
BD
BG
0.019 Illinois
0.019
2.830 BD 0.094 Illinois
2.830 0.094
2.071
1.630
BD
BG
0.061
0.094
™^^""«^^»
Indiana
Indiana
ffTTBT
0.210
0.376
0.587
Indiana
Indiana
BG 0.018 Indiana
T570T8"
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 IBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Coal
Demand Region
GW
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
9.892
4.299
14.190
1.440
4.778
6.218
0.282
0.391
0.023
3.437
4.133
3.126
1.525
4.652
2.063
3.189
BG
SF
BD
BG
SA
SB
LA
LD
BD
SD
BD
SD
0.481
0.245
0.726
0.050
0.231
0.281
0.009
0.013
0.001
0.131
0.154
0.094
0.084
0.178
0.064
0.176
Illinois
Wyoming
Alabama
West Kentucky
West Montana
West Montana
North Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
5.252
0.240
Missouri
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.939 BD 0.091 Wyoming
2.939
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Louisiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
GW
4.113
4.388
9.589
18.090
10.610
5.591
13.620
0.472
8.907
39.201
0.840
5.066
0.620
6.526
Coal
Type
BB
BD
SD
BA
BB
BD
SD
LF
BD
SD
SF
Quads
0.127
0.136
0.529
(J779T
0.295
0.294
0.560
0.026
0.519
1.695
0.029
0.284
0.038
0.350
Predominant Suj
Utah
Wyoming
Wyoming
South Colorado
South Colorado
South Colorado
Wyoming
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.181 SA 0.304 West Montana
5.181 0.304
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.013 SA 0.013 West Montana
0.013
0.013
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.338 BB 0.055 Utah
1.338
1CF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
.1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.197
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.197 BB 0.059 Utah
0.059
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.324
4.002
7.326
BD
SD
0.116
0.235
0.351
New Mexico
Wyoming
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.609
5.609
2.518
2.518
BD 0.284 New Mexico
0.284
BD 0.136 New Mexico
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.015
8.301
0.482
8.798
BD 0.001 Wyoming
SA 0.488 West Montana
SD 0.028 Washington
0.517
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-iil-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
1975
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
1990
224.0
184.8
12.6
421.3
373.5
27.5
404.7
432.2
6.0
71.8
64.2
58.3
5.6
205.8
1995
279.2
191.8
12.4
483.5
449.8
35.6
566.1
601.7
9.9
61.8
94.3
48.0
2.9
216.8
TOTAL
634.6 1,432.8 1,751.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-10a
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
17.8
76.9
129.0
0.4
224.0
126.4
4.2
35.8
18.4
184.8
25.0
89.6
164.0
0.6
279.2
146.4
25.2
20.3
191.8
1.7
21.2
4.0
4.4
4.2
6.1
1.1
5.2
22.9
12.6
12.4
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
.98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
131.6
7.1
138.6
148.2
81.1
169.2
22.9
421.3
264.0
108.6
1.0
373.5
177.5
89.6
190.3
26.0
483.5
328.5
119.8
1.4
449.8
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.6
0.3
22.9
4.2
27.5
10.3
21.5
3.8
35.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-10b
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
110.1
294.5
404.7
180.1
386.0
566.1
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
8.5
10.0
TO)
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
15.2
0.5
15.7
0.3
133.1
298.8
432.2
6.0
71.8
71.8
5.5
9.4
49.4
64.2
16.0
42.3
58.3
10.3
201.6
389.8
610.7
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
4.3
0.9
0.6
0.1
6.0
2.9
1.0
9.9
61.8
61.8
4.6
18.5
71.3
94.3
1.7
46.3
48.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-10c
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical - -
High Sulfur - -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.6 2.9
Low Sulfur 0.8 - ~
Total 4.5 5.6 2.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.6 4.7
High Sulfur 8.4 4.3 6.0
Medium Sulfur 30.4 103.7 87.7
Low Sulfur 11.7 92.3 118.5
Total 53.7 205.8 216.8
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 153.8 182.2
High Sulfur 147.8 349.6 434.4
Medium Sulfur 197.0 514.4 599.4
Low Sulfur 62.5 414.9 535.8
Total 509.0 1,432.8 1,751.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-IH-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTD CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
1990 1995
Btu)
(1978 $'8)
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.09 1.14
Medium Sulfur 1.18 1.22
Low Sulfur 1.55 1.65
Regional Average 1.18 1.24
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.50
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.03 1.13
Medium Sulfur 1.32 1.41
Low Sulfur 1.58 1.71
Regional Average 1.12 1.21
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 0.43 0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.00
Low Sulfur 1.03
Regional Average 1.02
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.42 0.40
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54
Regional Average 0.49 0.50
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-III-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'S)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur 1.16 1.23
Medium Sulfur 1.27 1.37
Low Sulfur 1.45 1.56
Regional Average 1.22 1.32
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.67 1.20
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.67 1.20
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.00 1.16
Low Sulfur 1.02 1.14
Regional Average 1.05 1.17
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.79 0.97
Low Sulfur 0.75 0.94
Regional Average 0.76 0.94
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.96
Low Sulfur —
Regional Average 0.96
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.03 1.09
NOTE:Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.42 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.98 1.62
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 1.43 1.52
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.38 1.40
Medium Sulfur 1.55 1.64
Low Sulfur 1.87 1.99
Regional Average 1.53 1.61
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.38 1.46
Medium Sulfur 1.61 1.72
Low Sulfur 1.84 2.24
Regional Average 1.55 1.67
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.39
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.24 1.33
Medium Sulfur 1.55 1.61
Low Sulfur 1.68 1.77
Regional Average 1.46 1.53
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.19 1.28
Medium Sulfur 1.12 1.14
Low Sulfur 1.18 1.24
Regional Average 1.15 1.19
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.03 1.40
Low Sulfur 1.44 1.51
Regional Average 1.20 1.45
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-12b
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.87
Low Sulfur 0.89
Regional Average 0.88
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.09
Low Sulfur 1.07
Regional Average 1.08
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.34
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
1CF INCORPORATED
-------
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/HKBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTO FLOOR;
70% MINIMW PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tone)
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-13a
o
•n
z
o
o
3)
TJ
O
3)
-1
m
O
Or loin ^toQl&oo
Northern Appalachia Ll-6
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
northwest ~
Total 11-6
Middle South East North East South West north West South
Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
223.5
99.1 79.1 33.7 -
20.3 94.8 61.9 6.4 0.7 0.8 - - "4.9
, , - - - L2-6
7.3 - 5.3
129 1 27.6 - - - 373'5
- 55. »
1.2 3.9 0.7 - 0.2 6.0
71.8 - - 71.8
~
_ 27.3 - 0.2 - 27-5
26.9 17.3 59.1 190.9 95.4 15.1 404.7
17.9 _ 3.7 16.4 17.5 8.9 64.4
16.1 38.5 3.6 58.2
~
5.6 5.6
119.4 237.1 301.3 159.3 122.3 296.7 151.6 33.4 1.432.7
-------
O
-n
z
n
o
u
13
O
33
>
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
Total
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-13b
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/>WBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBB. SO2AVBTO FLOOR;
70% MINIM1M PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
CRY SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.8 115.0 100.7 50.9 - - -
21.1 99.9 67.6 2.5 0.7 - -
- 6.3 - 6.1 - -
84. 8 178.0 162.2 24.4 -
- - - 1.4 5.3 3.2
- 61.8
- - - - 35.5 - 0.1
24.7 28.8 80.7 252.0 141.6 38.4
14.8 - 2.2 46.0 17.9 13.3
12.3 35.7
2.9
11.8 136.1 291.7 336.0 201.0 148.8 375.3 195.3 54.6
Total
278.4
191.8
12.4
449.4
9.9
61.8
35.6
566.2
94.2
48.0
2.9
1,750.6
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-L4a
o
O
O
33
TJ
O
3D
Origin
New Big land
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East North Central
Bast South Central
West North Central
Mfest South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1990 UTTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90S REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SOj/lMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMm PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBS DIG
(106 tons)
Destination
Hew
England
Middle
Atlantic
9.31
South
Atlantic
4.61
1.11
Bast North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
0.11
Mountain Pacific Total
4.61
9.31
1.11
0.11
9.31
5.72
0.11
2.34
2.34
2.34
17.48
-------
o
o
o
3)
s
3)
Origin
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast Dor tti Central
Bast South central
West North Central
Nest South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
GRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IIl-Ub
1995 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STAKDAHD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/>«BTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/KKBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMW PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
CRT SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Hew
England
Middle
Atlantic
5.12
South
Atlantic
3.70
East North
Central
Destination
Bast South
Central
Nest North
Central
West South
Central
0.71
Mountain Pacific Total
3.70
5.12
0.71
5.12
3.70
0.71
12.68
12.68
12.68
22.21
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
1975
37.2
183.6
183.6
192.1
147.3
2.7
42.2
68.3
1990
481.2
165.3 (66.9)
401.5 (57.6)
197.9 (59.3)
80.5 (57.0)
123.1 (55.4)
216.8 (19.1)
141.0 (24.1)
6.6 (22.8)
69.2 ( 8.7)
87.8 (44.0)
871.4 (48.4)
1995
230.0 (66.9)
537.2 (54.1)
197.9 (54.5)
80.5 (58.3)
248.8 (52.6)
200.9 (14.5)
119.2 (18.8)
7.5 (20.9)
74.2 ( 7.0)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.6 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
7.7
38.2
39.9
14.2
19.0
46.1
24.9
10.1
21.7
50.8
19.0
8.5
Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
1995
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (56.2)
4.0 (56.2)
-
-
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
26.2 (65.3)
34.9 (57.2)
20.1 (60.5)
3.1 (65.7)
11.7 (49.3)
34.8 (22.1)
21.1 (31.0)
0.4 (29.2)
13.3 ( 7.9)
8.0 (46.1)
103.8 (46.6)
25.2
33.6
33.5
7.7
14.0 (70.0)
5.7 (37.2)
4.0 (36.8)
1.7 (38.0)
6.1 (20.9)
3.9 (27.4)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
19.9
21.3
10.1
36.4 (65.3)
44.1 (53.6)
20.1 (57.7)
3.1 (68.6)
20.9 (47.4)
34.3 (20.1)
20.9 (29.2)
0.4 (22.6)
13.0 ( 5.3)
9.0 (41.4)
123.9 (46.9)
29.4
35.6
27.7
7.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
South Atlantic
Nuclear 32.2 (66.2) 44.7 (66.2)
Coal 83.3 (58.4) 117.2 (54.3)
Existing 47.0 (62.8) 47.0 (61.0)
NSPS 9.2 (40.1) 9.2 (42.7)
ANSPS 27.1 (57.0) 61.0 (51.0)
Oil/Gas 38.4 (20.6) 33.3 (14.1)
Steam 22.3 (27.5) 18.0 (19.2)
Combined Cycle 0.6 (35.9) 0.6 (25.0)
Turbines 15.4 (10.1) 14.7 ( 7.3)
Hydro and Others 10.4 (23.8) 10.5 (23.7)
Total 164.2 (48.9) 205.7 (48.8)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 19.6 21.7
Coal 50.7 57.0
Oil/Gas 23.4 16.2
Other 6.3 5.1
East North Central
Nuclear 33.0 (67.7) 45.9 (67.7)
Coal 86.9 (55.0) 100.5 (52.9)
Existing 62.9 (58.7) 62.9 (53.9)
NSPS 14.5 (46.1) 14.5 (49.7)
ANSPS 9.5 (44.2) 23.1 (52.0)
Oil/Gas 19.7 (18.2) 18.1 (13.8)
Steam 10.7 (25.3) 9.5 (18.2)
Combined Cycle 0.2 (19.1) 0.2 (12.1)
Turbines 8.8 ( 9.5) 8.3 ( 8.8)
Hydro and Others 1.7 (16.9) 1.7 (16.9)
Total 141.2 (52.4) 166.1 (52.4)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 23.4 27.6
Coal 61.5 60.5
Oil/Gas 14.0 10.9
Other 1.2 1.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
60.2 (54.5)
30.2 (56.7)
8.4 (57.5)
21.6 (50.2)
13.7 (10.7)
3.0 (18.7)
10.8 ( 8.5)
6.7 (41.6)
103.7 (50.7)
22.2
58.1
13.2
6.5
1995
32.0
77.5
15,
(67.4)
(52.4)
30.2 (50.1)
8.4 (56.4)
38.9 (53.4)
0 ( 8.0)
3.0 (11.2)
12.0 ( 7.2)
6.8 (40.9)
131.3 (50.4)
24.4
59.0
11.4
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
39.8 (51.4)
18.4 (52.3)
14.0 (58.1)
7.5 (36.7)
13.3 ( 8.1)
4.3 (10.4)
0.1 ( 8.0)
8.9 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
66.3 (44.0)
13.7
60.0
20.1
6.2
12.
49.
6
,4
18
(65.0)
(50.6)
4 (48.1)
14.0 (60.6)
17.0 (45.1)
15.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.1 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
81.4 (44.1)
15.5
60.7
18.8
5.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IH-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
West South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
122.0 (42.0)
10.7
38.6
48.6
2.0
1995
13.1 (65.0)
47.1 (64.8)
2.2 (64.8)
20.9 (65.0)
24.0 (64.7)
59.3 (19.7)
55.7 (20.4)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
18.2 (65.0)
80.5 (55.0)
2.2 (64.8)
20.9 (65.0)
57.3 (50.9)
47.6 (12.5)
44.0 (12.9)
1.4 (10.4)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
148.7 (42.0)
12.2
54.1
32.0
1.7
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
4.3 (65.4)
41.3 (63.1)
11.8 (62.1)
10.0 (66.0)
19.5 (62.2)
6.8 (13.1)
2.6 (17.5)
0.5 (17.3)
3.6 ( 9.3)
9.2 (45.9)
61.5 (55.2)
7.0
67.2
11.1
15.0
5.9 (65.4)
51.9 (61.2)
11.8 (55.4)
10.0 (65.9)
30.1 (61.9)
6.6 ( 9.2)
1.6 ( 6.8)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
74.0 (54.8)
8.0
70.1
8.9
13.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IH-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
20.1 (70.0)
10.6 (64.5)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.8 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.8 (49.5)
20.6
10.8
25.3
43.4
230.0 (66.9)
537.2 (54.1)
197.9 (54.5)
80.5 (58.3)
258.8 (52.6)
200.9 (14.5)
119.2 (18.8)
7.5 (20.9)
74.2 ( 7.0)
89.5 (43.5)
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.0 (69.6)
1.3 (68.9)
0.5 (70.0)
2.2 (70.0)
22.0 (20.9)
13.6 (25.2)
3.0 (24.3)
5.4 ( 9.2)
42.4 (53.1)
82.8 (48.4)
17.4
4.8
26.6
51.2
165.3 (66.9)
410.5 (57.6)
197.9 (59.3)
80.5 (57.0)
123.1 (55.4)
216.8 (19.1)
141.0 (24.1)
6.6 (22.8)
69.2 ( 8.7)
87.8 (44.0)
871.4 (48.4)
19.0
46.1
24.9
10.1
1,057.6 (48.5)
21.7
50.8
19.0
8.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OP SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
1995
GW
GW
3.315 (79.9)
3.315 (79.9)
1.724 (90.0)
3.315 (79.9)
3.315 (79.9)
1.724 (90.0)
1.900
5.242
6.322
2.674
6.419
8.222
2.674
11.661
(90.0)
(90.0)
(43.2)
(64.1)
(69.8)
(54.0)
(64.1)
(76.7)
1.900
7.665
6.319
2.674
13.226
8.219
2.674
20.891
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.7)
(64.1)
(69.8)
(47.5)
(64.1)
(75.4)
16.535 (90.0)
26.138 (90.0)
23.035
1.931
10.594
23.035
1.931
27.129
(51.4)
(71.7)
(69.8)
(51.4)
(71.7)
(58.9)
21.821
3.198
34.868
21.821
3.198
61.006
(52.1)
(65.8)
(69.8)
(52.1)
(65.8)
(76.2)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-HI-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.900 (90.0) 1.900 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 21.777 (90.0) 35.527 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 32.672 (52.7) 31.455 (51.5)
NSPS 4.605 (67.3) 5.872 (65.0)
ANSPS 17.013 (69.8) 49.094 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 34.572 (54.8) 33.355 (53.7)
NSPS 4.605 (67.3) 5.872 (65.0)
ANSPS 38.790 (81.1) 83.621 (78.4)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 1.466 (90.0) 9.507 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.528 (74.3) 7.528 (74.3)
NSPS 4.519 (45.4) 4.462 (46.7)
ANSPS 8.030 (69.8) 13.601 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.528 (74.3) 7.528 (74.3)
NSPS 4.519 (45.4) 4.462 (46.7)
ANSPS 9.496 (72.2) 23.108 (76.6)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 14.427 (90.0) 28.048 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.865 (75.8) 4.865 (75.8)
NSPS 4.072 (52.0) 4.477 (54.5)
ANSPS 7.190 (69.8) 10.869 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.865 (75.8) 4.865 (75.8)
NSPS 4.072 (52.0) 4.477 (54.5)
ANSPS 21.617 (79.7) 38.917 (80.6)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-HI-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990
1995
GW
GW
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.474 (69.9) 16.977 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.474 (69.9) 16.977 (69.8)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
8.908 (90.0)
8.906 (90.0)
1.110
5.095
15.047
1.110
5.095
23.955
(64.1)
(64.1)
(69.8)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(75.5)
1.108
5.094
48.384
1.108
5.094
57.290
(64.1)
(64.1)
(69.9)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(78.3)
0.137 (90.0)
2.936 (90.0)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.993 (27.7) 1.978 (27.8)
NSPS 9.314 (55.0) 8.986 (55.2)
ANSPS 19.386 (71.3) 27.115 (69.3)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.993 (27.7) 1.978 (27.8)
NSPS 9.314 (55.0) 8.986 (55.2)
ANSPS 19.523 (71.4) 30.051 (71.1)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 2.243 (69.9) 8.798 (70.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS -
ANSPS 2.243 (69.9) 8.798 (70.0)
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 0.137 (90.0) 8.906 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.993 (27.7) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 9.314 (55.0) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 21.629 (71.2) 51.182 (69.9)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.993 (27.7) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 9.314 (55.0) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 21.766 (71.3) 60.088 (72.9)
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.900 (90.0) 1.900 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 46.715 (90.0) 84.926 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 48.168 (57.7) 46.935 (58.2)
NSPS 32.605 (52.3) 33.892 (53.0)
ANSPS 76.383 (70.2) 173.836 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 50.068 (58.9) 48.835 (59.4)
NSPS 32.605 (52.3) 33.892 (53.0)
ANSPS 123.098 (75.8) 258.762 (74.8)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 897.1 810.2
Middle Atlantic 3,067.1 3,803.3
South Atlantic 7,929.0 11,539.8
EAST 11,893.2 16,153.3
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 3,424.3 5,919.9
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 5,848.4 9,331.1
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 526.4 1,169.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 3,858.8 5,249.0
Mountain 1,916.6 2,676.5
Pacific 114.3 383.6
WEST 2,030.9 3,060.1
TOTAL 27,581.9 40,883.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(109 $«s)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 298.9 467.1
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 143.3 (203.6) 238.7 (339.3)
NSPS 57.4 ( 80.5) 57.4 ( 80.5)
ANSPS 85.9 (123.1) 181.3 (258.8)
Oil/Gas 15.4 ( 44.7) 17.1 ( 49.4)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.8 ( 3.9) 2.2 ( 4.8)
Turbine (GW) 13.6 ( 40.9) 14.9 ( 44.5)
Long Distance Transmission 6.6 6.8
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.2 269.8
Scrubbers (GW) 15.8 (200.1) 25.5 (335.8)
NSPS 1.8 ( 32.6) 1.8 ( 33.9)
ANSPS 10.2 (123.1) 19.9 (258.8)
Retrofit 3.8 ( 44.4) 3.8 ( 43.1)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.2 0.2
Total 500.7 769.4
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 713.0 713.0
ANSPS 697.8 700.7
Total 703.8 703.5
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 461.5 458.0
Turbines 332.5 334.0
Total 344.5 346.2
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 55.2 53.9
ANSPS 82.9 76.9
Retrofit 85.6 88.2
Total 79.0 75.9
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $is)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
New England 4.2 (0.08) 26.4 (0.45)
Middle Atlantic 31.5 (0.72) 136.3 (1.09)
South Atlantic 502.1 (1.28) 755.4 (2.02)
EAST 537.8 918.1
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 386.1 (0.92) 679.6 (1.38)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 71.8 (1.02) 383.0 (1.92)
WEST NORTH CENTRAL ( 76.5) (1.11) ( 111.2) (1.80)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 360.5 (2.04) 849.6 (3.42)
Mountain 276.6 (3.63) 331.0 (3.33)
Pacific 93.7 (0.70) 201.1 (1.27)
WEST 370.3 532.1
Total Annualized Cost 1,649.9 (1.21) 3,251.6 (1.87)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 18,792.5 33,152.0
Objective Function 1,379.0 3,018.5
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function 15,791.7 30,488.5
Individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-21
CHANGE IN S02 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England - 20.7
Middle Atlantic 207.6 305.1
South Atlantic 312.7 729.1
EAST 520.3 1,054.9
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 66.9 185.9
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 220.0 423.1
WEST NORTH CENTRAL ( 36.6) 155.4
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 462.8 918.7
Mountain 268.7 392.7
Pacific 55.0 237.0
WEST 323.7 629.7
TOTAL 1,557.3 3,367.7
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-III-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/ton)
1990 1995
EAST
CENTRAL
WEST
1,033.6
1,040.4
1,144.0
870.3
1,070.0
845.0
TOTAL 1,059.5 965.5
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
932.6
438.8
493.7
276.8
99.9
0.7
56.6
76.9
1,443.6
1,176.1
704.7
471.4
321.1
104.1
0.4
88.7
80.5
1,771.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
o
30
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Coranercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur Total
_[
-
-
-
68.7
-
-
60.9
129.6
203
182
-
0
2
2
391
.4
34.3
169.1
.6
.2
.6
.8
.7
475
1
31
0
27
3
540
.5
253.9
221.6
.8
.3
.5
.7
.9
.6
253
92
-
-
26
9
381
.7
150.7
103.0
.4
.3
.3
.7
932
276
99
0
56
76
1,443
.6
438
493
.8
.9
.7
.6
.9
.6
.8
.7
-t
m
o
-------
o
o
o
3D
•o
O
3D
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
-
71.5
-
-
63.9
135.4
245.9
82.0
164.0
214.1
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
468.3
629.1
422.8
206.2
-
32.6
0.3
38.4
4.1
704.4
301.1
199.9
101.2
107.1
-
-
45.1
9.7
463.0
1,176.1
704
471
321.2
104.1
0.4
88.7
80.5
1,771.0
.7
.4
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING? 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 48.4 139.8 108.1
NSPS -
ANSPS - - 16.6
Oil/Gas Plants 101.8 108.7 51.6
Total 150.2 248.5 176.2
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 1,835.9 1,471.1 1,464.1
NSPS - 104.8 102.1
ANSPS - 142.6 252.9
Oil/Gas Plants 371.1 325.0 300.2
Total 2,207.6 2,043.6 2,119.2
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 2,632.2 3,121.0 3,026.4
NSPS - 156.3 169.6
ANSPS - 434.2 865.3
Oil/Gas Plants 746.1 497.7 303.6
Total 3,378.3 4,209.2 4,364.9
East
Coal Plants
Existing 4,516.5 4,731.9 4,598.6
NSPS - 261.1 271.7
ANSPS - 576.8 1,134.8
Oil/Gas Plants 1,219.6 931.4 655.4
Total 5,136.1 6,501.3 6,660.3
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 5,011.1 4,859.8
NSPS - 324.7 334.9
ANSPS - 134.0 347.0
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 123.7 85.5
Total 6,885.2 5,593.4 5,627.2
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-3b
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,332.2 2,213.9
NSPS - 203.9 202.3
ANSPS - 401.8 644.2
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 83.1 64.4
Total 3,394.7 3,021.0 3,124.8
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,799.9 1,687.3
NSPS - 400.4 385.8
ANSPS - 80.7 199.0
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 47.7 36.2
Total 1,532.9 2,328.7 2,308.3
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 150.0 150.0
NSPS - 696.4 696.4
ANSPS - 324.6 590.1
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.7 309.1
Total 412.7 1,716.6 1,745.6
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 362.5 338.2
NSPS - 171.7 168.4
ANSPS - 205.6 331.0
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 26.1 24.2
Total 358.1 766.0 861.8
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 78.0 35.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 19.1 66.8
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 103.0 106.8
Total 195.7 217.7 226.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
.1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 440.5 373.9
NSPS - 189.2 185.9
ANSPS - 224.7 397.8
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 129.1 131.0
Total 553.8 983.7 1,088.6
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,465.5 13,883.3
NSPS - 2,075.8 2,077.1
ANSPS - 1,742.6 3,312.7
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,860.7 1,281.6
Total 18,705.3 20,144.6 20,554.7
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990
NO
-K-
1995
TSP
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
1,327.2
7,006.4
3,888.7
1,324.1
1,793.5
8,333.6
953.2
8,395.9
3,615.8
1,324.6
3,455.5
9,349.0
162.3
786.0
509.7
186.4
89.9
948.3
113.9
840.7
476.8
186.3
177.6
954.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal 9.3 19.9 25.1
Existing 9.3 10.2 9.5
NSPS - 3.7 3.7
ANSPS - 6.0 11.8
Oil/Gas 6.2 4.4 3.2
Nuclear 1.7 9.7 13.5
Hydro and Other 2.0 3.4 3.4
Total 19.2 37.4 45.2
Percent of Total
Coal 48.4 53.2 55.5
Oil/Gas 32.3 11.8 7.1
Nuclear 8.9 25.9 29.9
Hydro and Other 10.4 9.1 7.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.241 0.124
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.804 0.712
South Atlantic 1.010 0.837 0.527
EAST 2.259 1.882 1.363
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.412 0.293
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.190 0.162
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.145 0.131
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.681
Mountain 0.249 0.103 0.101
Pacific 0.787 0.459 0.474
WEST 1.036 0.562 0.575
TOTAL 6.175 4.376 3.206
Oil for Coal Transportation 0.277 0.356
TOTAL 4.653 3.562
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.198 0.051
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.148
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.200
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.119 0.267
Medium Sulfur 1.661 1.845
Low Sulfur 0.015 0.010
Total 1.076 1.795 2.122
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.486 1.915
Medium Sulfur 2.271 3.159
Low Sulfur 0.185 0.203
Total 1.789 3.942 5.277
EAST
High Sulfur 1.803 2.330
Medium Sulfur 3.937 5.056
Low Sulfur 0.200 0.214
Total 2.912 5.940 7.599
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.662 2.100
Medium Sulfur 1.686 1.733
Low Sulfur 0.870 0.842
Total 2.670 4.217 4.675
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.922 2.142
Medium Sulfur 0.612 1.044
Low Sulfur 0.298 0.280
Total 1.328 2.833 3.467
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.451 0.451
Medium Sulfur 0.855 1.267
Low Sulfur . 0.557 0.514
Total 0.783 1.863 2.231
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.014 0.003
Medium Sulfur 1.693 2.469
Low Sulfur 0.881 1.351
Total 0.119 2.587 3.823
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.194 1.599
Low Sulfur 1.044 1.123
Total 0.615 2.237 2.722
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.107 0.059
Low Sulfur 0.129 0.526
Total 0.069 0.236 0.585
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.301 1.658
Low Sulfur 1.173 1.649
Total 0.685 2.474 3.307
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 5.851
Medium Sulfur 10.083
Low Sulfur 3.979
Total 8.719 19.913
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Quads Predominant Supply Region
Mass./Conn../Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.270
0.455
1.724
4.445
3.313
7.757
6.718
6.718
BF
BG
BF
BG
BF
0.043
0.015
0.058
0.146
0.192
0.338
Ohio
Ohio
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
0.279 Pennsylvania
07279
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Virgi.nia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.061
0.011
7.073
BF
BG
7.769
0.290
0.001
0.290
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania and Ohio
7.769 BF 0.335 Pennsylvania
0.335
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
ICF INCORPORATEO
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
12.441 BG 0.420 West Kentucky
12.441 0.420
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
6.831
12.233
19.064
BF
BG
0.207
0.705
0.912
Illinois
Illinois
South Florida
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
15.053
5.572
20.625
BF
BG
0.689
0.323
1.012
Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.063
7.174
7.236
BF
BG
0.002
0.360
0.362
Illinois
Illinois
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
4.375
0.723
5.098
BF
BG
0.158
0.042
0.200
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
6.554
6.554
BG
0.263 Illinois
0.263
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
- - -- • • H*. '— • m m ••• - •
1.082 BG 0.036 Illinois
1.082 0.036
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.830 BG 0.097 Illinois
2.830 0.097
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.682
1.978
3.660
BD
BG
0.050
0.115
0.165
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.661
9.741
13.402
BD
BG
0.106
0.529
0.636
Indiana
Indiana
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.527 BG 0.018 Indiana
0.527 0.018
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
9.537
4.654
14.190
6.218
6.218
0.518
0.292
3.206
3.983
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
BG
SF
BG
SA
LA
LD
0.462
0.265
0.727
0.021
0.012
0.110
Illinois
Wyoming
0.276 West Kentucky
0.276
West Montana
North Dakota
North Dakota
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.959
3.615
4.574
BD
SF
0.029
0.199
0.228
South Colorado
Wyoming
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Missouri
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.220
5.175
5.396
1.637
1.302
2.939
BD
SF
BG
SF
0.007
0.280
0.288
0.052
0.074
0.126
Wyoming
Wyoming
Illinois
Wyoming
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
A r k an s a s/0 k 1 ahoma/Lou i s i ana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
GW
2.049
5.837
0.213
0.088
9.589
17.776
Coal
Type
BB
BD
BF
BG
SF
Quads
0.065
0.184
0.007
0.003
0.546
0.804
Predominant Supply Region
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Kansas & Oklahoma
Wyoming
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.388
9.461
11.456
4.104
8.807
39.216
BA
BB
BD
SF
LF
0.152
0.267
0.561
0.234
0.513
1.727
South Colorado
South Colorado
South Colorado
Wyoming
Texas
6.780 SF 0.377 Wyoming
6.780
0.377
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.181 SA 0.309 West Montana
5.181 0.309
Wyoming
ANSPS (Par.t)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.329 SA 0.012 West Montana & Wyoming
0.329
1.169
0.012
1.169 BB 0.047 Utah
0.047
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.088
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
2.088 BB 0.116 Utah
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.235
6.247
7.482
BD
SF
0.043
0.373
0.415
New Mexico
Wyoming
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.518 BD 0.183 New Mexico
3.518
6.183
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.195 BD 0.119 New Mexico
2.195 0.119
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.005
8.317
0.475
8.798
BD 0.000 Wyoming
SA 0.497 West Montana
SD 0.028 Washington
0.525
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
1975
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
1990
405.1
390.1
24.8
430.4
455.2
5.4
71.8
57.5
51.4
5.6
191.6
1995
158.2
211.1
22.9
212.7
180.1
12.3
291.0
168.6
10.7
470.3
465.2
34.9
597.0
631.9
10.2
61.8
82.1
45.9
2.9
202.8
TOTAL
634.6 1,442.0 1,770.2
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-lV-lOa
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
17.4
74.5
120.5
0.4
212.7
19.7
95.4
175.6
0.4
291.0
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
125.4
4.2
33.4
17.1
180.1
127.5
0.1
23.4
17.6
168.6
1.7
21.2
3.9
4.3
4.2
5.4
0.6
4.7
22.9
12.3
10.7
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
146.7
78.7
158.1
21.6
405.1
152.6
95.5
199.5
22.7
470.3
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.1
-
293.0
96.3
0.8
350.6
113.6
1.0
138.6
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.6
390.1
6.6
13.9
4.2
24.8
465.2
10.3
20.8
3.8
34.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-lOb
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS?
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
149.0
280.8
430.4
262.5
334.5
597.0
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
6.5
163.5
285.1
455.2
10.3
283.4
338.3
631.9
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High 'Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
3.9
0.9
0.5
0.1
6.8
2.7
0.6
8.5
10.0
ToTo
5.4
71.8
71.8
10.2
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
5.5
7.6
44.4
4.6
14.4
63.1
57.5
82.1
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
35.4
51.4
1.7
44.2
45.9
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-lOc
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.6 2.9
Low Sulfur 0.8 - -
Total 4.5 5.6 2.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.6 4.6
High Sulfur 8.4 3.9 6.8
Medium Sulfur 30.4 101.8 83.5
Low Sulfur 11.7 80.3 108.0
Total 53.7 191.6 202.8
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 152.3 157.2
High Sulfur 147.8 382.2 463.1
Medium Sulfur 197.0 519.8 680.0
Low Sulfur 62.5 387.8 469.9
Total 509.0 1,442.0 1,770.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-lV-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
L.O LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.18 1.23
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.15 1.25
Medium Sulfur 1.31 1.37
Low Sulfur 1.52 1.58
Regional Average 1.50 1.57
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.30 1.44
Low Sulfur 1.54 1.61
Regional Average 1.48 1.63
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.05 1.16
Medium Sulfur 1.24 1.33
Low Sulfur 1.57 1.63
Regional Average 1.10 1.20
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 0.43 0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.93 1.03
Low Sulfur 0.99 1.08
Regional Average 0.97 1.06
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.40 0.41
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54
Regional Average 0.48 0.48
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-IV-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur 1.14 1.23
Medium Sulfur 1.27 1.36
Low Sulfur 1.41 1.49
Regional Average 1.20 1.29
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.78 1.14
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.78 1.14
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.96 1.10
Low Sulfur 1.00 1.10
Regional Average 1.04 1.13
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.73 0.90
Low Sulfur 0.72 0.87
Regional Average 0.72 0.87
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94 0.98
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.94 0.98
National
High Sulfur 1.06 1.15
Medium Sulfur 0.96 0.98
Low Sulfur 0.72 0.77
Regional Average 1.01 1.05
NOTE:Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 etu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.41 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.94 1.62
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 1.43 1.53
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.49
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.40 1.50
Medium Sulfur 1.66 1.67
Low Sulfur 1.83 1.89
Regional Average 1.57 1.62
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.26 1.36
Medium Sulfur 1.46 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.67 1.74
Regional Average 1.42 1.49
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.25 1.35
Medium Sulfur 1.47 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.68 1.77
Regional Average 1.34 1.42
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.12
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.18
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING? 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.07
Low Sulfur 1.07
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.32
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
o
Origin
northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Meet
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
CRAFT
Mav 30, .979
Page C-IV-I3a
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/KMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LB6 . SO2/*04BTa FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
VET SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
New Kiddle South Bast North Bast South Nest North Best South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.6 101.6 65.6 J1.5 - - -
19.4 94.9 57.5 6.5 0.7 1.1
6.9 - 5.4 - -
63.6 1M.6 132.9 25.1 -
1.0 2.3 1.7 - 0.3
71.8
24.7 - 0.1
26.9 15.2 72.3 196.0 105.1 14.9
_ 18.7 - 0.4 12.4 17.1 8.9
_ - - - - 15.6 32.2 3.7
- - 5.6
Total
210.3
180.1
12.3
390.2
5.3
71.8
24.8
430.4
57.5
51.5
5.6
121.0
231.0
303.2
161.0
125.5
298.6
154.5
33.4
1,439.8
O
O
3J
•o
O
TJ
m
a
-------
o
1995 NATIONAL COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Of 90S
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTD CEILING;
DRAFT
May 30, .'.979
Page C-IV-13b
TRANSPORTATION
REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
0.50 LBS. S02/*KBTU FLOOR;
70» MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Origin
Northern Appalachla
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Heat
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
— — •-- •*
Destination
Dew Middle South East North East South Hest North West South
Knaland Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.8 118.1 105.5 55.0
20.0 85.9 58.6
5.3
94.3 184.5
-
_ — — —
_
23.8
16.9
— — — -•
_
11 a 11H 1 791.0 338.8
- - -
3.3 0.7 - - -
5.4 - - - -
161.9 24.5 - - -
0.6 5.9 3.6
61.8 - -
34.8 - 0.1
29.8 86.8 267.5 150.3 38.9
0.4 33.2 18.4 13.3
16.0 30.0
_ 2.9
201.0 153.1 382.1 198.8 55.1
Total
290.4
168.5
10.7
465.2
10.1
61.8
34.9
597.1
82.2
46.0
2.9
1,769.8
o
3]
•o
o
•a
-------
o
o
o
3D
•o
O
3)
Origin
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East north Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-14a
1990 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90» REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/*MBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/WtBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIKDK PERCENTAGE REHOVAL
WBT SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
New
Middle
Atlantic
5.40
South
Atlantic
7.75
2.04
Bast North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
Heat South
Central
0-86
Mountain Pacific Total
__
-7 75
-5 40
__
2.04
_ 0 86
5.40
9.79
0.8«
12 fll
12.81
12
28.86
-------
DRAFT
May 30, Iv79
Page C-IV-14b
o
O
O
3)
T)
O
3>
Origin
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East Horth Central
East South Central
Nest North Central
Nest South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1995 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/*«BTO CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIM* PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
NET SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
Hew
Bnglajid
Middle
Atlantic
4.16
South
Atlantic
3.70
East North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
0.71
Mountain Pacific Total
3.70
4.16
0.71
4.16
3.70
0.71
12.68
12.68
12.68
21.25
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear 37.2 165.3 (66.9) 230.0 (66.9)
Coal 183.6 396.8 (58.0) 532.9 (54.4)
Existing* 183.6 197.9 (58.4) 197.9 (54.5)
NSPS - 79.6 (55.4) 79.6 (55.3)
ANSPS - 119.4 (58.9) 255.4 (54.0)
Oil/Gas 192.1 221.2 (19.3) 204.9 (14.8)
Steam* 147.3 141.2 (24.4) 120.7 (19.2)
Combined Cycle 2.7 6.6 (25.6) 7.5 (21.8)
Turbines 42.2 73.4 ( 9.0) 76.7 ( 7.1)
Hydro and Others 68.3 87.8 (44.0) 89.5 (43.5)
Total 481.2 871.1 (48.4) 1,057.3 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0 21.8
Coal 38.2 45.6 50.4
Oil/Gas 39.9 25.4 19.4
Other 14.2 10.1 8.5
Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (56.2)
4.0 (56.2)
-
-
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
26.2 (65.3)
35.1 (58.1)
20.1 (58.4)
3.1 (70.0)
11.9 (54.6)
35.5 (22.2)
21.1 (31.0)
0.4 (29.2)
14.0 ( 8.7)
8.0 (46.1)
104.8 (46.8)
25.0
33.5
33.9
7.6
14.0 (70.0)
5.7 (37.2)
4.0 (36.8)
1.7 (38.0)
6.1 (20.9)
3.9 (27.4)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
19.9
21.3
10.1
36.4 (65.3)
44.8 (54.1)
20.1 (57.2)
3.1 (68.0)
21.5 (49.2)
34.6 (20.1)
20.9 (29.3)
0.4 (29.2)
13.3 ( 5.4)
9.0 (41.4)
124.8 (47.0)
29.2
35.9
27.7
7.2
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
32.2 (66.2)
80.7 (58.4)
47.0 (62.6)
8.3 (36.7)
25.4 (57.8)
39.3 (21.0)
22.3 (28.8)
0.6 (35.9)
16.4 ( 9.8)
10.4 (23.8)
162.5 (48.7)
19.8
49.7
24.2
6.4
1995
44.7 (66.2)
115.1 (54.4)
47.0 (59.1)
8.3 (40.3)
59.9 (52.7)
34.4 (14.7)
18.0 (20.9)
0.6 (25.0)
15.7 ( 7.2)
10.5 (23.7)
204.7 (48.7)
21.8
56.2
16.8
5.1
East North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
33.0 (67.7)
86.2 (55.3)
62.9 (58.5)
14.5 (44.9)
8.9 (49.0)
20.3 (18.4)
10.7 (25.6)
0.2 (19.1)
9.4 (10.2)
1.7 (16.9)
141.2 (52.4)
23.4
61.0
14.4
1.2
45.9 (67.7)
100.2 (52.9)
62.9 (55.8)
14.5 (46.7)
22.8 (48.9)
18.4 (14.0)
9.5 (18.6)
0.2 (12.1)
8.6 ( 8.9)
1.7 (16.9)
166.1 (52.4)
27.6
60.3
11.1
1.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor)}
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
59.9 (28.4)
30.2 (55.1)
8.4 (48.5)
21.2 (58.4)
14.8 (11.4)
3.0 (18.7)
11.8 ( 9.6)
6.7 (41.6)
104.4 (50.9)
22.0
57.4
14.2
6.4
1995
32.0 (67.4)
76.6 (52.8)
30.2 (49.6)
8.4 (48.1)
38.0 (56.4)
15.9 ( 8.8)
3.0 (12.1)
12.9 ( 8.0)
6.8 (40.9)
131.3 (50.4)
24.4
58.3
12.1
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
40.0 (52.2)
18.4 (48.8)
14.0 (58.3)
7.6 (49.0)
13.8 ( 8.8)
4.3 (12.2)
0.9 (25.0)
9.5 ( 7.1)
4.1 (41.2)
67.0 (44.3)
13.6
59.7
20.6
6.1
12.6 (65.0)
49.3 (50.6)
18.4 (45.0)
14.0 (56.0)
16.9 (52.4)
15.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.1 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
81.3 (44.2)
15.5
60.6
18.8
5.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
1995
West South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
13.1 (65.0)
46.3 (64.8)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.0)
23.1 (64.7)
59.3 (19.7)
55.7 (20.4)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
121.2 (41.8)
10.8
38.2
48.9
2.1
4.3 (65.4)
40.7 (63.5)
11.8 (63.0)
10.0 (62.8)
18.9 (64.1)
7.0 (13.5)
2.6 (19.0)
0.5 (17.3)
3.9 ( 9.3)
9.2 (45.9)
61.1 (55.2)
7.0
66.6
11.5
15.1
18.2 (65.0)
80.2 (55.0)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.0)
57.0 (51.0)
47.9 (12.7)
44.3 (13.0)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
148.8 (42.0)
12.2
53.9
32.2
1.7
5.9 (65.4)
50.5 (62.2)
11.8 (58.3)
10.0 (60.7)
28.7 (64.3)
7.8 (11.6)
2.8 (14.4)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
73.8 (54.9)
8.0
68.4
10.6
13.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.0 (69.6)
1.3 (69.9)
0.5 (70.0)
2.2 (70.0)
22.3 (21.7)
13.9 (24.8)
3.0 (29.9)
5.4 ( 9.2)
42.4 (53.1)
83.0 (48.4)
17.3
4.8
26.9
51.1
165.3 (66.9)
396.8 (58.0)
197.9 (58.4)
79.6 (55.4)
119.4 (58.9)
221.2 (19.3)
141.2 (24.4)
6.6 (25.6)
73.4 ( 9.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.1 (48.4)
19.0
45.6
25.4
10.1
20.1 (70.0)
10.6 (64.5)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.8 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.8 (49.5)
20.6
10.8
25.3
43.4
230.0 (66.9)
532.9 (54.4)
197.9 (54.5)
79.6 (55.3)
255.4 (54.0)
204.9 (14.8)
120.7 (19.2)
7.5 (21.8)
76.7 ( 7.1)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.3 (48.5)
21.8
50.4
19.4
8.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990
GW
1995
GW
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.8)
1.724 (90.0)
3.315 (79.3)
3.315 (79.3)
1.724 (90.0)
2.245
11.941
3.026
2.810
(90.0)
(90.0)
(65.5)
(64.1)
2.245
21.548
3.019
2.808
(90.0)
(90.0)
(65.5)
(64.1)
5.271 (75.9)
2.810 (64.1)
11.941 (90.0)
5.264 (75.9)
2.808 (64.1)
21.548 (90.0)
2.555
25.433
2.639
2.065
(90.0)
(90.0)
(59.2)
(66.3)
2.555
59.900
2.830
2.126
(90.0)
(90.0)
(50.3)
(64.1)
5.194 (74.4)
2.065 (66.3)
25.433 (90.0)
5.385 (69.1)
2.126 (64.1)
59.900 (90.0)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 37.374 (90.0) 83.172 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 5.665 (62.6) 9.164 (65.8)
NSPS 4.875 (65.0) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 10.465 (75.1) 13.964 (74.1)
NSPS 4.875 (65.0) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS 37.374 (90.0) 83.172 (90.0)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 8.882 (90.0) 22.799 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.079 (75.6) 7.200 (74.2)
NSPS 2.620 (52.1) 2.619 (52.0)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.079 (75.6) 7.200 (74.2)
NSPS 2.620 (52.1) 2.619 (52.0)
ANSPS 8.882 (90.0) 22.799 (90.0)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 21.112 (90.0) 32.654 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.839 (76.0)
NSPS 3.042 (65.3) 2.968 (67.7)
ANSPS 0.134 (70.0) 5.343 (69.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.839 (76.0)
NSPS 3.042 (65.3) 2.968 (67.7)
ANSPS 21.246 (84.5) 37.997 (82.6)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV^17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - ~
NSPS - ~
ANSPS 4.346 (90.0) 11.730 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 3.301 (69.9) 5.162 (69.9)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - ~
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.647 (78.5) 16.892 (80.4)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - ~
NSPS - -
ANSPS 14.312 (90.0) 22.802 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.094 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.820 (77.6) 34.191 (70.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.094 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 23.142 (79.3) 56.993 (76.0)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - ~
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 5.215 (90.0) 13.027 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.311 (57.1) 9.309 (55.5)
ANSPS 13.700 (71.7) 15.715 (71.4)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.311 (57.1) 9.309 (55.5)
ANSPS 18.915 (75.4) 28.742 (77.6)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS -
ANSPS - - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 2.150 (69.9) 8.798 (70.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS -
ANSPS 2.150 (69.9) 8.798 (70.0)
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 5.215 (90.0) 13.027 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.311 (57.1) 9.309 (55.5)
ANSPS 15.850 (71.5) 24.513 (70.9)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.992 (27.7)
NSPS 9.311 (57.1) 9.309 (55.5)
ANSPS 21.065 (76.0) 37.540 (77.5)
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 91.240 (90.0) 186.183 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 24.006 (68.7) 24.305 (67.1)
NSPS 29.944 (55.1) 29.926 (54.6)
ANSPS 28.115 (70.8) 69.209 (70.3)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 28.806 (72.2) 29.105 (70.9)
NSPS 29.944 (55.1) 29.926 (54.6)
ANSPS 119.355 (81.5) 255.392 (80.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 897.0 812.7
Middle Atlantic 3,400.4 4,831.5
South Atlantic 7,004.9 12,799.0
EAST 11,302.3 18,443.2
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 4,279.4 7,007.0
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 7,208.2 9,805.4
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 1,171.0 2,677.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 4,593.8 7,121.4
Mountain 2,602.3 4,225.9
Pacific 111.3 389.2
WEST 2,713.6 4,615.1
TOTAL 31,268.2 49,669.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(109 $'s)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 297.7 466.2
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 140.7 (198.9) 236.8 (334.9)
NSPS 56.7 ( 79.6) 56.7 ( 79.6)
ANSPS 84.0 (119.4) 180.1 (255.4)
Oil/Gas 16.8 ( 48.6) 18.1 ( 52.2)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.8 ( 3.9) 2.2 ( 4.8)
Turbine (GW) 15-0 ( 44.7) 15.9 ( 47.3)
Long Distance Transmission 6.7 6«9
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.1 269.6
Scrubbers (GW) 22.3 (172.4) 39.9 (308.7)
NSPS 2.9 ( 29.9) 2.9 ( 29.9)
ANSPS 15.9 (119.4) 33.5 (255.4)
Retrofit 3.5 ( 23.1) 3.5 ( 23.4)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.1 0-1
Total 506.7 783.5
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 712.6 712.6
ANSPS 703.5 705.1
Total 707.2 706.9
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 456.6 458.0
Turbines 335.2 335.2
Total 344.9 346.6
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 98.1 117.3
ANSPS 132.9 125.4
Retrofit 151.9 131.1
Total 129.4 129.3
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $'S)
(1978 $'s)
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
EAST
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
Total Annualized Cost
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost
Objective Function
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function
1990
3.5 (0.07)
76.7 (0.78)
263.3 (0.97)
343.5
392.1
203.2
47.2
334.4
253.7
111.8
(0.75)
(1.10)
(1.55)
(2.92)
(3.39)
(0.83)
365.5
1,685.9 (1.25)
19,156.4
1,585.5
18,095.8
1995
16.4 (0.28)
193.7 (1.18)
733.0 (2.17)
943.1
940.5 (1.53)
418.1 (2.08)
{ 330.2) (2.21)
1,059.8 (4.27)
386.9
225.7
612.6
(3.59)
(1.60)
3,643.9 (2.13)
36,708.5
3,519.2
35,429.7
individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-21
CHANGE IN S02 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
EAST
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
1990
( 0.5)
206.5
244.0
450.0
( 151.2)
178.4
76.8
456.2
274.9
58.7
333.6
1995
16.8
303.1
697.0
1,016.9
( 170.6)
413.5
348.9
885.1
397.8
241.7
639.5
TOTAL
1,343.8
3,133.3
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-IV-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.5 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
70% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/ton)
1990 1995
EAST 763.3 927.4
CENTRAL 1,743.8 1,413.9
WEST 1,095.6 .1,143.1
TOTAL 1,254.6 1,163.0
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
919.9
480.2
438.7
278.4
99.9
0.7
56.2
76.7
1,430.8
1,148.6
733
414
319.6
104.2
0.4
87.6
80.5
1,740.9
.9
.7
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
o
a
TJ
O
JO
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
—
-
—
-
68.6
-
-
60.8
260.6
98.7
161.9
184.7
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
423.2
250.6
172.6
0.7
31.2
0.5
27.2
3.8
235.0
130.9
104.1
92.9
-
-
26.4
9.3
918.9
480
438
278.4
99.9
0.7
56.2
76.7
.2
.7
129.5
451.0
486.7
363.6
1,430.8
-------
o
o
o
XI
-o
o
31
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential /C
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.6
-
-
63.9
396.2
239.8
156.4
213.5
-
0.1
5.3
2.8
451.3
295.5
155.8
14.0
32.6
0.3
38.4
4.1
301.1
198.7
102.4
92.2
-
-
44.0
9.6
1,148.6
733.
414.
319.6
104.2
0.4
87.6
80.5
9
7
135.5
617.9
540.6
446.9
1,740.9
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-3a
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
150.2
2,207.6
139.8
108.7
248.5
108.1
22.3
51.6
182.0
1,835.9
-
-
371.1
1,510.1
97.2
132.8
322.7
1,474.0
103.0
206.9
298.9
2,062.8 2,082.7
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,126.8
188.1
448.2
476.0
3,077.7
225.5
874.2
281.7
3,378.3
4,239.0 4,459.1
East
Coal Plants
Existing 4,516.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1,219.6
Total 5,136.1
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4
Total 6,885.2
4,776.7 4,659.8
285.3 328.5
581.0 1,103.4
907.4 632.2
6,550.3 6,723.8
4,991.0
331.5
104.7
120.0
5,547.2
4,789.8
353.3
316.0
83.7
5,542.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-3b
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,329.9 2,197.1
NSPS - 236.4 223.9
ANSPS - 330.8 637.0
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 79.9 59.7
Total 3,394.7 2,977.0 3,117.7
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,952.2 1,823.0
NSPS - 409.7 435.2
ANSPS - 61.4 173.6
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 42.4 36.2
Total 1,532.9 2,465.6 2,468.1
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 149.8 149.8
NSPS - 693.0 693.0
ANSPS - 348.8 647.8
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.8 305.4
Total 412.7 1,737.4 1,796.0
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 354.5 321.5
NSPS - 168.8 174.9
ANSPS - 258.5 393.0
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 22.5 13.0
Total 358.1 804.3 902.4
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 77.4 35.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 35.6 139.5
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 100.8 106.8
Total 195.7 231.2 299.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.5* LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 431.9 357.2
NSPS - 186'3 192<4
ANSPS - 294.1 532.5
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 123.1 £lil
Total 553.8 1,035.5 1,201.9
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,631.2 13,976.6
NSPS - 2,142.2 2,226.4
ANSPS - 1,720.8 3,410.3
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,818.7 _Lt||Ii£
Total 18,705.3 20,312.9 20,850.2
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
NO TSP
1990 1995 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas 1,302.5 926.1
Coal 7,027.3 8,405.7
Existing 3,924.2 3,632.0
NSPS 1,354.1 1,407.1
ANSPS 1,749.0 3,366.7
Total 8,329.8 9,33.1.8 952.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
Percent of Total
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
19.9
10.4
3.8
5.8
4.2
9.7
3.4
37.2
25.0
9.6
4.0
11.4
3.1
13.5
3.4
44.9
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
53.5
11.3
26.1
9.1
55.7
6.9
30.1
7.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
EAST
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
Oil for Coal Transportation
TOTAL
0.249
0.787
1990
0.090
0.445
1995
0.425
0.824
1.010
2.259
0.241
0.786
0.804
1.831
0.124
0.706
0.493
1.323
0.317
0.112
0.289
2.162
0.390
0.166
0.131
1.185
0.286
0.142
0.131
0.672
0.071
0.474
1.036 0.535 0.545
6.175 4.238 3.099
0.279 0.350
4.517 3.449
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.197 0.191
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.009
Low Sulfur -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.200
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.363 0.426
Medium Sulfur 1.050 1.122
Low Sulfur 0.334 0.425
Total 1.076 1.747 1.973
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.432 2.018
Medium Sulfur 2.048 2.213
Low Sulfur 0.577 1.184
Total 1.789 4.057 5.416
EAST
High Sulfur 1.992 2.635
Medium Sulfur 3.104 3.344
Low Sulfur 0.911 1.609
Total 2.912 6.007 7.588
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.409 1.774
Medium Sulfur 1.918 1.846
Low Sulfur 0.895 1.038
Total 2.670 4.222 4.659
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.587 2.189
Medium Sulfur 0.840 0.976
Low Sulfur 0.373 0.296
Total 1.328 2.800 3.461
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.468 0.431
Medium Sulfur 0.683 0.881
Low Sulfur 0.666 0.891
Total 0.783 1.818 2.203
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.456 1.485
Low Sulfur 1.143 2.279
Total 0.119 2.598 3.764
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.003 1.176
Low Sulfur 1.228 1.521
Total 0.615 2.232 2.697
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.107 0.044
Low Sulfur 0.132 0.533
Total 0.069 0.239 0.577
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.110 1.220
Low Sulfur 1.360 2.054
Total 0.685 2.471 3.274
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 5.456 7.030
Medium Sulfur 9.111 9.752
Low Sulfur 5.348 8.128
Total 8.719 19.916 24.949
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Quads Predominant Supply Region
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full) 1.724 BG
ANSPS (No Scrub) -
Total. 1.724
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part) 2.237 BB
ANSPS (Part) 2.970 BD
ANSPS (Full.) 0.377 BG
Total 5.584
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part) 5.183 BB
ANSPS (Full) 1.518 BG
ANSPS (No Scrub) -
Total 6.701
0.071
0.094
0.022
0.187
0.144
0.083
0.227
Ohio
Southern West Virginia
Southern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Pennsylvania
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full.)
Total
Vi rgi ni a/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total.
4.639
0.176
2.251
7.067
7.769
1.022
8.791
BB
BD
BG
BB
BG
0.155
0.006
0.122
0.227
0.241
0.056
0.296
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Southern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.623
1.623
BB
0.048 Southern West Virginia
0.048
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Mich igan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
12.351
0.137
12.488
6.969
14.214
21.173
7.093
0.681
10.761
18.534
2.952
3.748
6.700
5.032
0.066
5.098
1.947
4.607
Coal
Type
BB
BG
BD
BG
BB
BD
BG
BD
BG
BB
BG
BD
BG
Quads
0.402
0.007
0.410
0.205
0.823
1.027
0.237
0.023
0.623
0.099
0.217
0.316
0.176
0.004
0.180
0.067
0.267
Predomina
Southern
West Kent
Illinois
Illinois
East Kent
East Kent
Northern
Illinois
Illinois
Southern
Northern
Illinois
Illinois
6.554
0.333
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.305 BB 0.041 East Kentucky
1.305
0.041
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.622 BD 0.019 Illinois
0.622
0.019
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.790
1.044
2.835
2.071
1.630
3.701
BB
BD
BD
BG
0.060
0.035
0.095
0.061
0.094
0.155
Wyoming
Wyoming
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.310
6.971
14.281
BD
BG
0.209
0.379
0.588
Indiana
Indiana & Illinois
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.527
0.527
BG
0.018 Indiana
0.018
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Coal
Type
Iowa
ANSPS
ANSPS
ANSPS
ANSPS
ANSPS
(Part)
(Part)
(Part)
(Part)
(Full)
14.190
14.190
0.962
1.997
3.259
6.218
0.927
2.000
1.207
4.133
0.926
2.201
1.525
4.652
0.044
1.921
3.189
0.089
BG
BB
BD
BG
SA
LA
LD
BB
BD
SB
BB
BD
SA
SB
0.715
0.715
0.034
0.070
0.189
0.292
0.030
0.067
0.045
0.142
0.028
0.066
0.084
0.178
0.001
0.060
0.176
0.003
Quads Predominant Supply Region
^ ^ ^ -^ * "~
Illinois
Wyoming
Alabama & Illinois
West Kentucky
West Montana
North Dakota
North Dakota
South Colorado
South Colorado
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
West Montana
West Montana
Total
5.253
0.240
M Lssouri
ANSPS (Ful.l)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.939
2.939
BD
0.091 Wyoming
0.091
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.5? LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
GW
9.801
1.671
6.618
18.090
12.520
8.943
9.057
0.161
0.311
8.208
39.201
0.840
0.596
4.338
5.774
5.181
5.181
0.357
0.357
1.298
0.039
Coal
Type
_^&A—
BB
BD
SB
BA
BB
BD
SB
SD
LF
BD
SB
SD
SA
SA
BB
SB
Quads
0.331
0.088
0.365
0.785
0.348
0.359
0.477
0.009
0.017
0.484
1.693
0.029
0.021
0.255
0.305
0.304
0.304
0.013
0.013
0.053
0.002
Predominant Supply Region
Utah
Wyoming
Wyoming
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico & South Colorado
Wyoming
West Montana
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
West Montana
West Montana & Wyoming
Utah
West Montana
1.338
0.055
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
.1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
Ar i zona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.197 BB 0.059 Utah
1.197
2.943
0.023
5.112
8.078
1.767
4.123
5.890
BA
BD
SA
BB
BD
0.059
0.100 South Colorado
0.001 New Mexico
0.299 Wyoming
0.400
0.082
0.217
0.299
New Mexico
New Mexico
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.217
2.217
BD
0.120 New Mexico
0.120
0.009
0.005
8.564
0.220
8.798
BB
BD
SA
SD
0.001
0.000
0.503
0.013
0.517
Utah
Wyoming
West Montana
Washington
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
1975
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
138.6
1990
213.9
191.2
13.7
418.8
372.4
1995
271.4
201.8
12.9
486.1
452.7
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5 27.7 34.1
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2 407.1 541.6
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7 434.8 575.7
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST 50.0 205.2 227.6
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
5.3
68.9
70.5
55.0
5.6
10.0
61.8
106.8
47.2
1.9
TOTAL
634.6 1,43.1.2 1,742.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-lOa
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tonS)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
19.1
85.3
109.1
0.4
213.9
27.8
99.7
143.3
0.7
271.4
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
133.4
4.2
34.7
18.9
191.2
157.0
24.6
20.2
201.8
1.7
21.2
_
22.9
5.1
4.4
4.2
13.7
6.5
1.0
5.4
12.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
157.7
89.5
148.2
23.5
418.8
191.3
99.7
168.8
26.3
486.1
MIDWEST
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur 131.6 264.8 331.2
Medium Sulfur 7.1 106.7 119.8
Low Sulfur - 1-0 1-7
Total 138.6 372.4 452.7
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 8.6 27.7 34.1
0.3
7.8
0.4
6.6
16.8
4.2
10.3
17.2
6.7
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-lOb
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
109.4
297.7
407.1
142.0
399.6
541.6
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
6.6
126.2
302.0
434.8
10.3
159.2
406.2
575.7
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
3.1
1.4
0.6
0.1
6.0
2.9
1.0
8.5
10.0
10.0
5.3
68.9
10.0
61.8
68.9
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southwest
Metal1urgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
15.2
0.5
15.7
5.5
9.1
55.8
70.5
16.0
39.0
4.6
16.8
85.4
106.8
1.7
45.5
55.0
47.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-lOc
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.56 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical - ~
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.6 1.9
Low Sulfur 0-8 ~ I
Total 4-5 5-6 1>9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.6 4.7
High Sulfur 8.4 3.1 6.0
Medium Sulfur 30.4 101.0 85.1
Low Sulfur 11.7 95.5 131.9
Total 53.7 205.2 227.6
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 163.3 196.0
High Sulfur 147.8 364.0 447.1
Medium Sulfur 197.0 482.1 533.0
Low Sulfur 62.5 421.9 566.0
Total 509.0 1,431.2 1,742.1
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-V-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.10 1.16
Medium Sulfur 1.17 1.20
Low Sulfur 1.57 1.67
Regional Average 1.18 1.24
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.16 1.24
Medium Sulfur 1.33 1.42
Low Sulfur 1.55 1.68
Regional Average 1.52 1.65
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.33 1.46
Low Sulfur 1.58 1.68
Regional Average 1.52 1.69
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.03 1.13
Medium Sulfur 1.32 1.41
Low Sulfur 1.60 1.73
Regional Average 1.12 1.21
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.43
Low Sulfur 0.45 0.50
Regional Average 0.43 0.44
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.95 1.05
Low Sulfur 1.06 1.16
Regional Average 1.02 1.11
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.42 0.41
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54
Regional Average 0.49 0.51
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-V-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.24 1.32
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.56 0.99
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.56 0.99
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.07 1.20
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.76 0.98
Low Sulfur 0.71 0.91
Regional Average 0.72 0.91
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.90 0.93
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.90 0.93
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.03
NOTE:Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
t.O LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.43 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.94 2.05
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 1.44 .1.51
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.56
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.40 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.57 1.63
Low Sulfur 1.88 2.06
Regional Average .1.55 1.67
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.23 1.34
Medium Sulfur 1.52 1.59
Low Sulfur 1.69 1.79
Regional Average 1.46 1.54
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.24 1.33
Medium Sulfur 1.54 1.64
Low Sulfur 1.74 1.84
Regional Average 1.39 1.46
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.19 1.28
Medium Sulfur 1.07 1.16
Low Sulfur 1.21 1.21
Regional Average 1.15 1.20
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94
Low Sulfur 1.45
Regional Average 1.17
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.78 0.98
Low Sulfur 0.93 0.99
Regional Average 0.86 0.99
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.03 1.09
Low Sulfur 1.07 1.11
Regional Average 1.05 1.11
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.34 1.45
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
•n
Origin
Northern Appalachla
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central West
Gulf
Eastern northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
DRAFT
May 30, ;.979
Page C-V-13a
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/**BTO CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/>«BTU FLOOR;
33% NINIMDM PERCENTAGE RBfOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.5 96.2 73.0 32.7 - - -
0.1 22.9 99.2 62.5 5.0 0.7 0.8
7.3 6.4 - -
" S«.5 159.3 129.5 27.1 -
1.7 2.7 0.6 - 0.2
68.9
- - 27.5 - 0.2
27.9 16.7 58.9 191.8 96.8 15.1
19.0 - 5.2 15.9 21.7 8.7
17.7 33.8 3.6
____ - - --S.6
Total
213.4
191.2
13.7
372.4
5.2
68.9
27.7
407.2
70.5
55.1
5.6
Total
11.6
119.1
236.0
301.4
159.3
122.1
295.7
152.5
33.2
1,430.9
o
o
30
s
a
nl
O
-------
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Hi dweat
Central West
Gulf
Eastern northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
DRAFT
May 30. 1979
Page C-V-13b
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90» REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2^WBTD CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIKON PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South West North Heat South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.6 109.0 100.0 49.8 - -
23.6 105.2 70.2 2.1 0.7 -
6.4 6.5 -
83.0 172.6 172.4 24.4 -
1.4 5.3 3.2
- 61.8
34.0 - 0.1
26.7 14.5 81.6 238.2 141.3 39.3
16.5 - 2.6 55.0 21.7 10.9
- - - - 12.3 32.3 2.7
_ _ _ 1.9
Total
270.4
201.8
12.9
452.4
9.9
61.8
34.1
541.6
106.7
47.3
1.9
o
•n
o
o
3)
s
Total
11.6
132.6
294.6
335.8
196.9
148.6
370.5
195.4
54.8
1,740.8
m
O
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-14a
Origin
Hew England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast Horth Central
Baat Sooth Central
West Horth Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1990 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Of 90% REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
aa SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Middle
Atlantic
6.36
South
Atlantic
3.70
1.30
Baat North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific Total
3.70
6.36
1.30
6.36
5.00
13.01
13.01
13.01
24.37
o
O
O
jo
•a
O
-------
o
o
o
31
TJ
O
33
Origin
Hew Dig land
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East north Central
Bast South Central
West Berth Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
DRAFT
May 30, L979
Page C-V-14b
1995 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
ONDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SOi^MBTD CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/^tCBTO PLOOR;
33% MINIMIM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
CRT SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Middle
Atlantic
6.73
South
Atlantic
3.70
East North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
0.71
Mountain Pacific Total
3.70
6.73
0.71
12.66 12.68
6.73 3.70
0.71
12.66 23.82
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear 37.2 165.3 (66.9) 230.0 (66.9)
Coal. 183.6 401.9 (57.6) 537.3 (54.1)
Existing* 183.6 197.9 (59.4) 197.9 (54.9)
NSPS - 80.5 (56.4) 80.5 (58.9)
ANSPS - 123.4 (55.5) 258.8 (52.0)
Oil/Gas 192.1 216.4 (19.1) 200.9 (14.5)
Steam* 147.3 140.8 (24.1) 119.2 (18.8)
Combined Cycle 2.7 6.6 (22.5) 7.5 (20.9)
Turbines 42.2 69.0 ( 8.6) 74.2 ( 7.0)
Hydro and Others 68.3 87.8 (44.0) 89.5 (43.5)
Total 481.2 871.3 (48.4) 1,057.6 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0 21.7
Coal 38.2 46.1 50.8
Oil/Gas 39.9 24.8 19.0
Other 14.2 10.1 8.5
Power plants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
1995
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (56.2)
4.0 (56.2)
-
-
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
26.2 (65.3)
34.7 (57.2)
20.1 (61.9)
3.1 (65.7)
11.5 (46.7)
34.8 (22.1)
21.1 (31.0)
0.4 (29.2)
13.3 ( 7.9)
8.0 (46.1)
103.7 (46.6)
25.3
33.5
33.6
7.7
14.0 (70.0)
5.7 (37.2)
4.0 (36.8)
1.7 (38.0)
6.1 (20.9)
3.9 (27.4)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
19.9
21.3
10.1
36.4 (65.3)
42.6 (53.0)
20.1 (60.6)
3.1 (70.0)
19.4 (42.5)
34.3 (20.1)
20.9 (29.2)
0.4 (22.6)
13.0 ( 5.3)
9.0 (41.4)
122.3 (46.6)
29.8
34.8
28.0
7.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
[GW (percent capacity factor))
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
32.2 (66.2)
83.4 (58.4)
47.0 (62.9)
9.2 (40.1)
27.3 (56.9)
38.4 (20.6)
22.3 (27.5)
0.6 (35.9)
15.4 (10.1)
10.4 (23.8)
164.3 (48.9)
19.6
50.8
23.4
6.3
1995
44.7 (66.2)
119.0 (54.6)
47.2 (60.9)
9.2 (49.5)
62.6 (50.6)
33.3 (14.1)
18.0 (19.2)
0.6 (25.0)
14.7 ( 7.3)
10.5 (23.7)
207.3 (49.0)
21.6
57.4
16.1
5.7
East North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
33.0 (67.7)
87.0 (55.0)
62.9 (58.7)
14.5 (46.2)
9.7 (44.1)
19.5 (18.2)
10.7 (25.3)
0.2 (19.1)
8.6 ( 9.3)
1.7 (16.9)
141.2 (52.4)
23.4
61.6
13.8
1.2
45.9 (67.7)
100.2 (52.9)
62.9 (55.8)
14.5 (46.7)
22.8 (48.9)
18.4 (14.0)
9.5 (18.6)
0.2 (12.1)
8.6 ( 8.9)
1.7 (16.9)
166.1 (52.4)
27.6
60.3
11.1
1.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
59.9 (28.4)
30.2 (55.1)
8.4 (48.5)
21.2 (58.4)
14.8 (11.4)
3.0 (18.7)
11.8 ( 9.6)
6.7 (41.6)
104.4 (50.9)
22.0
57.4
14.2
6.4
1995
32.0 (67.4)
77.5 (52.4)
30.2 (50.0)
8.4 (54.3)
38.9 (53.9)
15.0 ( 8.0)
3.0 (11.2)
12.0 ( 7.2)
6.8 (40.9)
131.3 (50.4)
24.4
59.0
11.4
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
39.7 (51.4)
18.4 (52.4)
14.0 (57.8)
7.4 (36.7)
13.3 ( 8.1)
4.3 (10.4)
0.9 ( 8.0)
8.9 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
12.6 (65.0)
49.4 (50.6)
18.4 (48.1)
14.0 (61.6)
17.0 (44.3)
15.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.9 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
66.2 (44.0)
13.7
60.0
20.1
6.2
81.4 (44.1)
15.5
60.7
18.8
5.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
West South Central
Nuclear 13.1 (65.0) 18.2 (65.0)
Coal 47.2 (64.8) 80.2 (55.0)
Existing 2.2 (64.8) 2.2 (64.4)
NSPS 20.9 (65.0) 20.9 (65.0)
ANSPS 24.0 (64.7) 57.0 (51.0)
Oil/Gas 59.3 (19.7) 47.9 (12.7)
Steam 55.7 (20.4) 44.3 (13.0)
Combined Cycle 1.4 (12.9) 1.4 (12.9)
Turbines 2.2 ( 6.0) 2.2 ( 6.0)
Hydro and Others 2.5 (19.5) 2.5 (19.5)
Total 122.1 (42.0) 148.8 (42.0)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 10.7 12.2
Coal 38.7 53.9
Oil/Gas 48.6 32.2
Other 2.0 1.7
Mountain
Nuclear 4.3 (65.4) 5.9 (65.4)
Coal 41.6 (62.9) 51.8 (61.2)
Existing 11.8 (62.1) 11.8 (55.3)
NSPS 10.0 (61.8) 10.0 (65.1)
ANSPS 19.8 (64.0) 30.0 (62.2)
Oil/Gas 6.6 (12.5) 6.6 ( 9.2)
Steam 2.4 (16.9) 1.6 ( 6.8)
Combined Cycle 0.5 (13.7) 0.5 (13.7)
Turbines 3.6 ( 9.3) 4.4 ( 9.5)
Hydro and Others 9.2 (45.9) 9.6 (45.5)
Total 61.5 (55.2) 73.9 (54.8)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.0 8.0
Coal 67.6 70.1
Oil/Gas 10.7 8.9
Other 15.0 13.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/VMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.0 (69.9)
1.3 (69.6)
0.5 (70.0)
2.2 (70.0)
22.3 (21.7)
13.9 (24.8)
3.0 (29.9)
5.4 ( 9.2)
42.4 (53.1)
83.0 (48.4)
17.3
4.8
26.9
51.1
165.3 (66.9)
401.9 (57.6)
197.9 (59.4)
80.5 (56.4)
123.4 (55.5)
216.4 (19.1)
140.8 (24.1)
6.6 (22.5)
69.0 ( 8.6)
87.8 (44.0)
871.3 (48.4)
19.0
46.1
24.8
10.1
20.1 (70.0)
10.6 (64.5)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.8 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.8 (49.5)
20.6
10.8
25.3
43.4
230.0 (66.9)
537.3 (54.1)
197.9 (54.9)
80.5 (58.9)
258.8 (52.0)
200.9 (14.5)
119.2 (18.8)
7.5 (20.9)
74.2 ( 7.0)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.6 (48.5)
21.7
50.8
19.0
8.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SC^ REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - 1.724 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.3)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.3)
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS - - 1.724 (90.0)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.901 (90.0) 1.901 (90.0)
NSPS - -
ANSPS 2.573 (90.0) 4.146 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 6.444 (42.8) 6.441 (48.4)
NSPS 2.678 (64.1) 2.678 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.961 (59.1) 15.207 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 8.345 (53.6) 8.342 (57.9)
NSPS 2.678 (64.1) 2.678 (64.1)
ANSPS 11.534 (64.8) 19.353 (65.4)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 15.753 (90.0) 26.134 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 23.345 (51.2) 22.265 (51.8)
NSPS 2.505 (57.6) 3.199 (64.4)
ANSPS 11.505 (60.1) 36.475 (60.2)
Total. Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 23.345 (51.2) 22.265 (51.8)
NSPS 2.505 (57.6) 3.199 (64.4)
ANSPS 27.258 (74.3) 62.609 (70.4)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.901 (90.0) 1.901 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 18.326 (90.0) 32.004 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 33.104 (52.4) 32.021 (54.0)
NSPS 5.183 (61.0) 5.877 (64.3)
ANSPS 20.466 (59.7) 51.682 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 35.005 (54.5) 33.922 (56.0)
NSPS 5.183 (61.0) 5.877 (64.3)
ANSPS 38.792 (74.0) 83.686 (71.6)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - ~ ~
NSPS - ~
ANSPS 1.465 (90.0) 8.421 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.532 (74.3) 7.532 (74.3)
NSPS 4.519 (45.4) 4.462 (46.7)
ANSPS 8.187 (63.3) 14.114 (62.4)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.532 (74.3) 7.532 (74.3)
NSPS 4.519 (45.4) 4.462 (46.7)
ANSPS 9.652 (66.5) 23.114 (70.5)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - ~
NSPS - -
ANSPS 15.293 (90.0) 26.577 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.865 (75.8) 4.870 (75.8)
NSPS 4.075 (52.1) 5.445 (54.9)
ANSPS 6.324 (64.9) 12.341 (66.7)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.865 (75.8) 4.870 (75.8)
NSPS 4.075 (52.1) 5.445 (54.9)
ANSPS 21.617 (78.8) 38.918 (78.9)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.56 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS - -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - _ _
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.356 (52.7) 16.977 (53.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.00.1 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.356 (52.7) 16.977 (53.5)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 8.208 (90.0) 8.208 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.096 (64.1) 5.095 (64.1)
ANSPS 15.812 (64.3) 49.082 (53.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.096 (64.1) 5.095 (64.1)
ANSPS 24.020 (70.9) 57.290 (58.1)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 0.137 (90.0) 2.319 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.888 (27.7) 3.875 (27.7)
NSPS 9.313 (55.7) 9.310 (55.4)
ANSPS 19.627 (54.5) 27.713 (50.0)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.888 (27.7) 3.875 (27.7)
NSPS 9.313 (55.7) 9.310 (55.4)
ANSPS 19.754 (54.7) 30.032 (52.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total. Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
1995
GW
GW
2.243 (40.3)
2.243 (40.3)
0.137 (90.0)
8.798 (33.4)
8.798 (33.4)
2.319 (90.0)
3.888
9.313
21.870
3.888
9.313
22.007
1.901
43.428
50.499
33.186
80.015
52.400
33.186
123.443
(27.7)
(55.7)
(53.0)
(27.7)
(55.7)
(53.3)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(56.3)
(51.8)
(58.9)
(57.5)
(5.1.8)
(67.9)
3.875
9.310
36.511
3.875
9.310
38.830
1.901
77.526
49.406
35.189
181.286
51.307
35.189
258.814
(27.8)
(55.4)
(46.0)
(27.8)
(55.4)
(48.6)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(56.8)
(53.0)
(55.5)
(58.0)
(53.0)
(64.3)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 896.3 886.3
Middle Atlantic 2,744.4 3,310.5
South Atlantic 7,930.8 11,955.2
EAST 11,517.5 16,152.0
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 3,353.5 5,545.6
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 5,838.6 9,515.1
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 419.8 786.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 3,649.0 4,496.7
Mountain 1,640.5 2,027.5
Pacific 74.5 182.4
WEST 1,714.0 2,209.9
TOTAL 26,547.3 38,705.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(109 §'S)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 299.1 466.3
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 143.5 (203.9) 238.0 (339.3)
NSPS 57.4 ( 80.5) 57.4 ( 80.5)
ANSPS 86.1 (123.4) 180.7 (258.8)
Oil/Gas 15-4 ( 44.6) 17.0 ( 49.2)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.8 ( 3.9) 2.2 ( 4.8)
Turbine (GW) 13.6 ( 40.7) 14.8 ( 44.4)
Long Distance Transmission 6.5 6.7
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.2 269.8
Scrubbers (GW) 15.3 (156.6) 24.2 (339.6)
NSPS 1.8 ( 33.2) 1.8 ( 35.2)
ANSPS 9.6 (123.4) 18.5 (258.8)
Retrofit 3.8 ( 46.7) 3.8 ( 45.6)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.2 0-2
Total 500.2 767.2
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 712.7 712.7
ANSPS 697.5 698.1
Total 703.5 701.6
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 456.4 458.0
Turbines 333.8 334.0
Total 344.5 346.2
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 55.1 52.0
ANSPS 77.7 71.5
Retrofit 82.2 84.1
Total 75.0 71.2
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $'S)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
New England 6.0 (0.12) 28.3 (0.48)
Middle Atlantic ( 1.8) (0.67) ( 258.5) (0.79)
South Atlantic 518.6 (1.26) 1,138.0 (2.15)
EAST 522.8 907.8
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 388.1 (0.93) 703.1 (1.46)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 73.9 (1.41) 419.1 (2.08)
WEST NORTH CENTRAL ( 116.9) (0.88) ( 112.2) (1.79)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 283.1 (1.54) 660.6 (2.66)
Mountain 197.4 (2.63) 256.5 (2.71)
Pacific 80.7 (0.58) 164.9 (1.01)
WEST 278.1 421.4
Total Annualized Cost 1,429.2 (1.05) 3,000.1 (1.72)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 16,362.9 30,445.3
Objective Function 1,332.7 2,849.7
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function 15,298.9 28,897.9
Individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-21
CHANGE IN SO2 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England - 14.7
Middle Atlantic 168.9 316.3
South Atlantic 283.0 617.4
EAST 451.9 948.4
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 69.6 171.1
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 216.0 398.8
WEST NORTH CENTRAL ( 53.8) 130.1
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 427.1 824.7
Mountain 222.6 329.2
Pacific 39.1 163.2
WEST 261.7 492.4
TOTAL 1,373.3 2,965.5
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-V-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
DRY SCRUBBING
($/ton)
EAST
CENTRAL
WEST
TOTAL
1990
1,156.9
953.4
1,062.7
1,040.7
1995
957.2
1,095.7
855.8
1,011.7
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 199Q 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Expor t
Total
932.1
445.6
486.5
278.0
100.0
0.7
56.2
76.9
1,443.8
1,171.3
707
463
320.8
104.1
0.4
88.7
80.5
1,765.8
.6
.7
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
o
33
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMDVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur Total
_
-
—
-
68.7
-
-
60.9
129.6
253
183
-
0
2
2
442
.3
88.0
165.3
.4
.2
.6
.8
.4
430
3
31
0
34
3
504
.5
212.5
218.3
.9
.2
.5
.4
.9
.5
248.2
145.4
102.9
90.7
-
-
19.1
9.3
367.3
932
278
100
0
56
76
1,443
.1
445.
486.
.0
.0
.7
.2
.9
.8
6
5
m
O
-------
o
in
o
o
3D
s
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.5
-
-
63.9
135.4
361
214
-
0
5
2
583
.4
201.9
159.5
.0
.1
.3
.9
.7
514
3
32
0
36
4
591
.4
310.0
204.4
.7
.6
.3
.8
.1
.9
295
103
-
-
46
9
454
.5
195.7
99.8
.1
.7
.7
.9
1,117
320
104
0
88
80
1,765
.1
707
463
.8
.1
.4
.7
.5
.8
.6
.7
m
o
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975
1990
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
East
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0Li/Gas Plants
Total
1995
48.4
-
101.8
150.2
1,835.9
-
-
371.1
2,207.6
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,378.3
4,516.5
-
-
1,219.6
5,136.1
6,771.8
-
-
103.4
6,885.2
139.8
_
108.7
248.5
1,471.1
104.8
153.5
325.2
2,054.5
3,072.3
159.8
449.7
497.7
4,179.5
4,683.2
264.6
603.2
931.6
6,482.5
4,994.4
319.8
120.6
123.7
5,558.5
108.1
17.2
51.6
176.9
1,464.1
102.1
267.5
300.2
2,133.9
3,015.4
169.6
893.9
303.6
4,382.5
4,587.6
271.7
1,178.6
655.4
6,693.3
4,736.1
326.6
333.6
85.5
5,481.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-3b
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,330.5 2,210.6
NSPS - 203.2 204.1
ANSPS - 400.6 654.6
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 81.7 63.1
Total 3,394.7 3,016.0 3,132.4
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,824.7 1,748.4
NSPS - 408.2 411.5
ANSPS - 98.6 219.8
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 42.4 36.2
Total 1,532.9 2,373.9 2,415.9
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 150.0 150.0
NSPS - 696.4 696.4
ANSPS - 349.1 677.3
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.7 305.3
Total 412.7 1,741.1 1,828.9
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 345.3 337.4
NSPS - 173.7 172.0
ANSPS - 259.0 397.3
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 24.8 22.5
Total 358.1 802.8 929.2
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 78.0 35.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 35.4 140.2
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 100.8 106.8
Total. 195.7 231.8 300.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-3c
ANNUAL SO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tong)
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1975
380.5
173.3
16,915.4
1,789.9
18,705.3
1990
423.3
191.2
294.4
125.6
14,406.1
2,083.5
1,866.4
1,850.6
20,206.6
1995
373.1
189.5
537.5
129.3
553.8 1,034.6 1,229.4
13,805.8
2,099.8
3,601.3
1,274.7
20,781.6
Source for 1975 data:
EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICIPATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
NO TSP
-x-
1990 1995 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas 1,302.7 948.2 161.2 113.2
Coal 7,003.2 8,379.5 784.8 839.2
Existing 3,852.5 3,588.5 507.2 473.9
NSPS 1,328.7 1,337.1 186.9 188.0
ANSPS 1,822.0 3^453.8 90.7 177-3
Total 8,323.9 9,327.6 946.0 952.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
1975
9.3
9.3
1990
19.9
10.1
3.7
6.0
1995
25.1
9.5
3.8
11.8
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
4.3
9.7
3.4
37.3
3.2
13.5
3.4
45.1
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
53.4
11.5
26.0
9.1
55.7
7.1
29.9
7.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.241 0.124
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.804 0.712
South Atlantic 1.010 0.837 0.527
EAST 2.259 1.882 1.363
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.412 0.293
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.180 0.152
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.131 0.131
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.672
Mountain 0.249 0.098 0.096
Pacific 0.787 0.446 0.474
WEST 1.036 0.544 0.570
TOTAL 6.175 4.333 3.181
Oil for Coal Transportation 0.281 0.364
TOTAL 4.614 3.545
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.198 0.147
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.053
Low Sulfur -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.200
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.133 0.010
Medium Sulfur 1.645 1.833
Low Sulfur 0.018 0.279
Total 1.076 1.796 2.122
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.466 1.946
Medium Sulfur 2.197 3.127
Low Sulfur Q.2BO 0.205
Total 1.789 3.944 5.278
EAST
High Sulfur 1.796 2.371
Medium Sulfur 3.847 5.013
Low Sulfur 0.298 0.216
Total 2.912 5.942 7.600
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.638 2.000
Medium Sulfur 1.671 1.740
Low Sulfur 0.844 0.843
Total 2.670 4.152 4.583
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.856 2.129
Medium Sulfur 0.679 1.074
Low Sulfur 0.301 0.272
Total 1.328 2.836 3.476
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.420 0.396
Medium Sulfur 0.683 0.649
Low Sulfur 0.835 1.262
Total 0.783 1.938 2.307
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975
1990
1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
0.014
1.294
1.272
2.579
0.004
1.315
2.480
3.799
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
1.005
1.239
2.244
1.373
1.341
2.714
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.079
0.160
0.239
0.031
0.548
0.579
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.685
1.084
1.399
2.483
404
889
293
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
5.724 6.899
9.257 11.196
4.949 6.963
8.719 19.930 25.058
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55" LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Virginia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.315
0.409
1.724
4.448
3.310
7.758
6.718
6.718
7.002
0.070
7.073
BF
BG
BF
BG
0.044
0.014
0.058
0.146
0.192
OT33I
Ohio
Ohio
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
BF
0.279 Pennsylvania
0.279
BF
BG
0.287
0.004
0.290
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
7.769 BF 0.349 Pennsylvania
7.769
0.349
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
South Florida
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.060
12.401
12.461
19.064
14.884
5.681
20.625
0.063
7.174
7.236
4.375
0.723
5.098
BA
BG
BF
BG
BF
BG
BF
BG
0.002
0.419
0742l
0.912
0.683
0.329
1.012
0.002
0.360
0.362
0.158
0.042
0.200
Predominant Supply Region
Virginia
West Kentucky
0.982
5.977
12.104
BD
BF
BG
0.029
0.181
0.701
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Illinois
Illinois
Northern West Virginia
Northern West Virginia
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
6.554
6.554
BG
0.290 Illinois
0.290
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Predominant Supply Region
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.617
0.686
2.302
1.862
1.798
3.660
4.137
9.746
13.883
0.527
0.527
SA
BG
BD
BG
BD
BG
BG
0.057 West Montana
0.024 Illinois
0.080
0.056
0.104
0.160
0.120
0.530
0.650
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana & Illinois
0.018 Indiana
0.018
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Coal
Demand Region
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Missour i.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
Total
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
9.542
4.649
14.190
6.218
6.218
1.815
2.758
4.573
1.700
0.487
0.163
2.301
4.651
0.059
0.018
6.435
6.513
1.335
0.321
1.284
2.939
BG
SF
BG
SA
LA
BA
BB
BD
SA
BA
BD
SA
BA
BD
SA
0.462
0.265
0.727
0.277
0.277
0.059
0.108
0.167
0.052
0.015
0.005
0.109
0.181
0.002
0.001
0.341
0.344
0.042
0.010
0.071
0.123
Illinois
Wyoming
West Kentucky
West Montana
North Dakota
South Colorado
Wyoming
Wyoming
West Montana
South Colorado
Wyoming
West Montana
South Colorado
Wyoming
West Montana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
GW
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Louisiana
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Pact)
Total
0.044
0.071
4.762
1.274
11.938
18.090
BF
BG
BB
BD
SA
0.001
0.004
0.149
0.040
0.606
0.800
Predominant Supply Region
Oklahoma
Kansas
Utah
Wyoming
West Montana
Texas
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
19.233
4.455
6.251
0.472
8.806
39.217
BA
BB
BD
SA
LF
0.595
0.237
0.335
0.026
0.513
1.706
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico
West Montana
Texas
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
3.914
2.603
6.518
SA
SF
0.197
0.158
0.356
Wyoming
Wyoming
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
5.181 SA 0.306 West Montana
5.181 0.306
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.210
0.155
0.365
SA
SD
0.008
0.009
0.017
West Montana
Wyoming
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
1.298
0.126
1.424
BB
SA
0.053
0.007
0.061
Utah
West Montana
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page OVI-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
Coal
Demand Region
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.114
0.470
1.584
BB 0.060 Utah
SA 0.028 West Montana
0.088
Colorado
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.150
5.176
7.326
BA
SF
0.074
0.314
0.388
South & North Colorado
Wyoming
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.470
3.900
4.370
BA 0.014 New Mexico
BD 0.209 New Mexico
0.223
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
2.195 BD 0.119 New Mexico
2.195
0.005
8.792
8.798
BD 0.000 Wyoming
SA 0.519 West Montana
0.519
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tong)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
1975
392.1
138.6
1990
407.0
382.9
1995
158.2
211.1
22.9
211.7
182.3
12.9
29.1.5
172.5
11.2
475.2
456.0
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
8.5
45.2
53.7
30.0
423.5
453.5
33.0
588.9
621.8
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
4.6
71.8
66.7
50.6
5.6
199.2
8.3
61.8
93.6
46.0
1.9
211.6
TOTAL
634.6 1,442.6 1,764.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-lOa
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
22.9
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
17.9
73.7
119.8
0.4
21.1.7
126.4
4.2
33.4
18.4
182.3
12.9
148.8
77.9
157.4
22.9
407.0
19.7
96.1
175.3
0.4
291.5
130.8
0.1
23.4
18.3
172.5
1.7
21.2
4.5
4.3
4.2
5.4
0.6
5.2
11.2
155.9
96.2
199.3
23.9
475.2
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.1
138.6
286.5
95.5
1.0
382.9
343.3
111.3
1.4
456.0
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.6
0.3
23.6
6.0
30.0
10.3
14.1
8.6
33.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-lOb
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
107.6
315.8
423.5
167.4
421.5
588.9
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
0.4
131.3
321.8
453.5
10.3
181.5
430.0
621.8
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
3.1
0.9
0.5
0.1
5.4
1.9
1.0
8.5
10.0
10.0
4.6
71.8
71.8
8.3
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
15.2
0.5
15.7
5.5
7.1
54.1
66.7
16.0
34.6
4.6
9.2
79.9
93.6
0.9
45.1
50.6
46.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-lOc
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical -
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.6 1.9
Low Sulfur 0.8 - -
Total 4.5 5.6 1.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.6 4.6
High Sulfur 8.4 3.1 5.4
Medium Sulfur 30.4 101.3 75.6
Low Sulfur 11.7 89.2 126.0
Total 53.7 199.2 211.6
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 154.4 160.5
High Sulfur 147.8 367.8 455.1
Medium Sulfur 197.0 485.4 567.7
Low Sulfur 62.5 434.9 581.3
Total 509.0 1,442.6 1,764.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VI-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.08 1.15
Medium Sulfur 1.17 1.23
Low Sulfur 1.55 1.61
Regional Average 1.18 1.23
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.15 1.25
Medium Sulfur 1.30 1.37
Low Sulfur 1.53 1.59
Regional Average 1.50 1.58
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.29 1.45
Low Sulfur 1.56 1.63
Regional Average 1.49 1.64
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.04 1.15
Medium Sulfur 1.24 1.33
Low Sulfur 1.58 1.68
Regional Average .1.10 1.20
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.43
Low Sulfur 0.46 0.54
Regional Average 0.43 0.46
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 0.49 0.49
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VI-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.50 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.20 1.28
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.72 1.18
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.72 1.18
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94 1.06
Low Sulfur 1.03 1.18
Regional Average 1.06 1.19
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.68 0.86
Low Sulfur 0.67 0.84
Regional Average 0.68 0.84
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.87 0.90
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.87 0.90
National
High Sulfur 1.05 1.14
Medium Sulfur 0.99 1.05
Low Sulfur 0.72 0.76
Regional Average 1.01 1.06
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 etu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.41 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.96 1.62
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 1.42 1.53
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.48
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.40 1.50
Medium Sulfur 1.64 1.67
Low Sulfur 1.89 1.90
Regional Average 1.57 1.61
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.25 1.36
Medium Sulfur 1.46 1.53
Low Sulfur 1.69 1.75
Regional Average 1.42 1.49
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.25 1.35
Medium Sulfur 1.47 1.45
Low Sulfur 1.70 1.81
Regional Average 1.35 1.42
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.14
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.19
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.76 0.83
Low Sulfur 0.92 0.96
Regional Average 0.85 0.90
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.01
Low Sulfur 1.08
Regional Average 1.06
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.32
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Nest
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
Total
DRAFT
May 30. 1979
Page C-Vl-IJa
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/MKBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMDM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
New Middle South East North Bast South Heat North West South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.6 101.9 68.0 29.8 - -
19.4 96.1 60.4 5.8 0.7 -
6.6 - 6.3 - -
62.0 165.8 133.0 22.2 -
1.0 1.4 1.8 - 0.3
- 71.8
29.9 - 0.1
26.6 15.2 70.6 193.8 102.2 15.1
17.3 - 5.6 17.4 17.7 8.6
12.8 34.2 3.7
- - - - - - - 5.6
"•6 121-3 232.7 299.9 161.3 130.4 297.6 154.2 33.3
Total
211.3
182.4
12.9
383.0
4.5
71.8
30.0
423.5
66.6
50.7
5.6
1 .442.1
O
O
33
TJ
O
3)
-------
O
O
33
TJ
O
•33
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Mldveat
Central Meet
Gulf
Eastern northern Great Plains
Western northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-13b
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% RBHOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SOa/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/W4BTU FLOOR;
33% MINI KIH PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
HOT SCRUBBING
(106 tone)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South Meat North Mest South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.8 118.2 108.3 52.5 - - -
20.1 84.0 63.5 4.2 0.7 - -
3.5 7.7 -
95.7 177.0 162.2 21.1 -
1.0 3.6 3.6 - 0.1
- - - 61.8
32.9 - 0.1
29.6 26.1 94.0 252.1 147.6 39.5
11.6 - 4.4 48.0 17.2 12.5
12.2 33.0 0.8
____ _ _ --1.9
Total
290.8
172.5
11.2
4S«.0
6.3
61.8
33.0
568.9
93.7
46.0
1.9
o
Total
11.8
138.3
291.5
334.2
201.2
156.7
377.7
197.9
54.8
1,764.1
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-14a
o
O
O
3)
•O
O
39
Origin
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East North Central
Bast South Central
West Horth Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1990 INTER-RBGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMDVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/*HBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. SO2/4MBTO FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(10* tons) ,
Destination
Middle
Atlantic
5.40
South
Atlantic
3.71
1.99
Bast North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
0.80
Mountain Pacific Total
3.71
5.40
1.99
0.80
5.40
5.70
0.80
13.01
13.01
13.01
24.91
-------
o
o
o
B
TJ
O
3D
CRAFT
Nay 30, 1979
Page C-VI-Hb
1995 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Of 90% REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/HMBTD CEILING; 0.5S LBS. SOj/tWBTO FLOOR;
33% HINIHOt PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
MET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Bev Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
Origin England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
Hew England ___- - - ____
Middle Atlantic - - 3.70 - - - - - - 3.70
Sooth Atlantic 4.16 - - - - - - 4.16
Bast North Central ___ - - - - ___
Bast South Central _--- - - .___
West North Central - 2.29 - - - - 2.29
West South Central _--- - - ____
Mountain _._- - - -- 12.68 12.68
Pacific - - - - - - - - - -
Total - 4.16 3.70 2.29 - 12.68 22.83
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
1975
37.2
183.6
183.6
192.1
147.3
2.7
42.2
Hydro and Others 68.3
Total 481.2
1990
165.3 (66.9)
398.6 (57.8)
197.9 (58.0)
79.6 (55.5)
121.1 (59.0)
219.7 (19.2)
141.0 (24.3)
6.6 (22.8)
72.1 ( 9.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.4 (48.4)
1995
230.0 (66.9)
534.1 (54.4)
197.9 (54.1)
79.6 (55.9)
256.6 (54.0)
204.0 (14.7)
120.2 (19.2)
7.5 (21.3)
76.3 ( 7.0)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.5 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0
Coal 38.2 45.7
Oil/Gas 39.9 25.2
Other 14.2 10.1
21.7
50.5
19.2
8.5
* Power plants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (.14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING? 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor)}
1990 1995
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (56.2)
4.0 (56.2)
-
-
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
26.2 (65.3)
35.1 (58.1)
20.1 (58.4)
3.1 (70.0)
11.9 (54.6)
35.5 (22.2)
21.1 (31.0)
0.4 (29.2)
14.0 ( 8.7)
8.0 (46.1)
104.8 (46.8)
25.0
33.5
33.9
7.6
14.0 (70.0)
5.7 (37.2)
4.0 (36.8)
1.7 (38.0)
6.1 (20.9)
3.9 (27.4)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
19.9
21.3
10.1
36.4 (65.3)
44.8 (54.1)
20.1 (57.2)
3.1 (68.0)
21.5 (49.2)
34.6 (20.1)
20.9 (29.3)
0.4 (29.2)
13.3 ( 5.4)
9.0 (41.4)
124.8 (47.0)
29.2
35.9
27.7
7.2
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/>MBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
32.2 (66.2)
80.7 (58.4)
47.0 (60.9)
8.3 (37.6)
25.5 (60.6)
39.4 (2.1.0)
22.3 (28.8)
0.6 (35.9)
16.4 ( 9.8)
10.4 (23.8)
162.6 (48.7)
19.8
49.6
24.2
6.4
1995
44.7 (66.2)
115.2 (54.4)
47.0 (58.7)
8.3 (40.3)
59.9 (52.9)
34.4 (35.6)
18.0 (20.9)
0.6 (25.0)
15.7 ( 7.2)
10.5 (23.7)
204.7 (48.7)
21.8
56.3
16.8
5.1
East North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
33.0 (67.7)
85.1 (55.1)
62.9 (58.3)
14.5 (43.8)
7.7 (50.6)
20.3 (18.4)
10.7 (25.6)
0.2 (19.1)
9.4 (10.2)
1.7 (16.9)
140.1 (52.3)
23.6
60.7
14.5
1.2
45.9 (67.7)
98.6 (52.7)
62.9 (54.8)
14.5 (45.6)
21.2 (51.4)
18.4 (14.0)
9.5 (18.6)
0.2 (12.1)
8.6 ( 8.9)
1.7 (16.9)
164.5 (52.2)
27.9
59.8
11.2
.1.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
60.3 (55.0)
30.2 (54.9)
8.4 (48.3)
21.7 (57.8)
14.4 (1.1.3)
3.0 (18.7)
11.4 ( 9.1)
6.7 (41.6)
104.4 (50.9)
22.0
57.8
13.8
6.4
1995
32.0 (67.4)
77.1 (52.6)
30.2 (49.4)
8.4 (48.6)
38.5 (56.0)
15.4 ( 8.4)
3.0 (12.1)
12.4 ( 7.5)
6.8 (40.9)
131.3 (50.4)
24.4
58.7
11.7
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
41.8 (52.0)
18.4 (51.3)
14.0 (58.3)
9.4 (44.3)
13.3 ( 8.1)
4.3 (10.4)
0.9 ( 8.0)
8.9 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
68.2 (44.6)
13.3
61.3
19.5
6.0
12.6 (65.0)
51.1 (51.0)
18.4 (45.9)
14.0 (59.0)
18.7 (50.2)
15.3 ( 7.0)
4.3 ( 6.9)
0.9 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
83.1 (44.6)
15.2
61.5
18.4
4.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
West South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
13.1 (65.0)
46.4 (64.8)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.0)
23.2 (64.7)
59.3 (19.7)
55.7 (20.4)
1.4 (12.9)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
121.3 (41.8)
10.8
38.3
48.9
2.1
4.3 (65.4)
41.2 (63.2)
11.8 (62.2)
10.0 (64.5)
19.4 (63.2)
6.8 (13.2)
2.6 (17.7)
0.5 (17.3)
3.6 ( 9.4)
9.2 (45.9)
61.4 (55.3)
7.0
67.1
11.1
15.0
1995
18.2 (65.0)
80.5 (54.9)
2.2 (64.4)
20.9 (65.0)
57.3 (50.9)
47.6 (12.5)
44.0 (12.9)
1.4 (10.4)
2.2 ( 6.0)
2.5 (19.5)
148.8 (42.0)
12.2
54.1
32.0
1.7
5.9 (65.4)
50.8 (62.0)
11.8 (58.3)
10.0 (62.3)
29.0 (63.4)
7.6 (11.3)
2.7 (13.7)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
73.9 (54.9)
8.0
68.7
10.3
13.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.0 (69.9)
1.3 (69.6)
0.5 (70.0)
2.2 (70.0)
22.0 (21.1)
13.6 (25.2)
3.0 (24.3)
5.4 ( 9.2)
42.4 (53.1)
82.8 (48.4)
17.4
4.8
26.6
51.2
165.3 (66.9)
398.6 (57.8)
197.9 (58.0)
79.6 (55.5)
121.1 (59.0)
219.7 (19.2)
141.0 (24.3)
6.6 (22.8)
72.1 ( 9.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.4 (48.4)
19.0
45.7
25.2
10.1
20.1 (70.0)
10.6 (64.5)
1.3 (25.0)
0.5 (70.0)
8.8 (70.0)
24.7 (20.3)
13.9 (26.1)
3.9 (24.6)
6.9 { 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.8 (49.5)
20.6
10.8
25.3
43.4
230.0 (66.9)
534.1 (54.4)
197.9 (54.1)
79.6 (55.9)
256.6 (54.0)
204.0 (14.7)
120.2 (19.2)
7.5 (21.3)
76.3 ( 7.0)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.5 (48.5)
21.7
50.5
19.2
8.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OP SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - 1.724 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - 1.724 (90.0)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 2.245 (90.0) 2.245 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 11.843 (90.0) 21.549 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.147 (64.1) 3.141 (64.4)
NSPS 2.810 (64.1) 2.808 (64.1)
ANSPS 0.097 (32.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 5.392 (74.9) 5.486 (75.3)
NSPS 2.810 (64.1) 2.808 (64.1)
ANSPS 11.940 (83.4) 21.549 (90.0)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 2.555 (90.0) 2.555 (90.0)
NSPS - -
ANSPS 22.559 (90.0) 58.877 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.716 (58.9) 3.902 (52.7)
NSPS 2.056 (66.7) 2.126 (64.1)
ANSPS 2.929 (32.5) 1.042 (65.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 6.271 (71.6) 6.457 (67.5)
NSPS 2.056 (66.7) 2.126 (64.1)
ANSPS 25.488 (78.5) 59.919 (83.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS - ~
ANSPS 34.402 (90.0) 82.150 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 10.178 (67.3) 10.358 (64.9)
NSPS 4.866 (65.2) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS 3.026 (32.5) 1.042 (65.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 14.978 (74.6) 15.158 (72.9)
NSPS 4.866 (65.2) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS 37.428 (85.4) 83.192 (89.7)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - ~
NSPS - -
ANSPS 7.736 (90.0) 19.573 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.230 (73.6) 7.281 (73.1)
NSPS 2.801 (49.5) 2.977 (45.4)
ANSPS - - 1.617 (32.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.230 (73.6) 7.281 (73.1)
NSPS 2.801 (49.5) 2.977 (45.4)
ANSPS 7.736 (90.0) 21.190 (80.5)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 19.800 (90.0) 32.479 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.843 (76.0) 4.839 (76.0)
NSPS 2.980 (64.6) 3.070 (62.4)
ANSPS 1.871 (66.6) 5.999 (67.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.843 (76.0) 4.839 (76.0)
NSPS 2.980 (64.6) 3.070 (62.4)
ANSPS 21.671 (83.1) 38.478 (81.8)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
GW
5.001
9.442
5.001
9.442
1.994
9.313
17.883
1.
9.
994
313
(27.7)
(32.5)
(27.7)
(32.5)
9.110 (90.0)
1.504 (90.0)
19.387
(27.7)
(60.9)
(49.9)
(27.7)
(60.9)
(52.7)
1995
GW
5.001
18.676
5.001
18.676
1.992
9.311
28.963
(27.7)
(34.0)
(27.7)
(34.0)
9.109 (90.0)
1.110
5.095
14.098
1.110
5.095
23.208
(64.1)
(64.1)
(52.4)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64.7)
1.109
5.094
48.206
1.109
5.094
57.307
(64.1)
(64.1)
(48.0)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(48.7)
7.934 (90.0)
1.992 (27.7)
9.311 (60.9)
21.029 (47.5)
(27.7)
(60.9)
(57.7)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OP S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1990
GW
2.221 (32.5)
2.221 (32.5)
1995
GW
8.798 (32.5)
8.798 (32.5)
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1.504
1.994
9.313
20.140
1.994
9.313
21.608
4.800
74.552
25.355
30.058
46.093
30.155
30.058
121.093
(90.0)
(27.7)
(60.8)
(48.0)
(27.7)
(60.9)
(50.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(67.6)
(55.9)
(46.0)
(71.2)
(55.9)
(68.9)
7.934
1.992
9.311
29.827
1.992
9.311
37.761
4.800
151.237
25.579
30.389
105.367
30.379
30.389
256.604
(90.0)
(27.7)
(60.9)
(43.1)
(27.7)
(60.9)
(52.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(66.4)
(55.2)
(42.4)
(70.1)
(55.2)
(67.1)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 897.3 807.9
Middle Atlantic 3,390.4 4,819.8
South Atlantic 6,987.5 12,903.7
EAST 11,275.2 18,531.4
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 4,073.3 6,553.7
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 6,988.1 9,722.5
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 340.9 512.1
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 3,529.6 4,023.6
Mountain 1,805.6 3,192.9
Pacific 42.6 169.1
WEST 1,848.2 3,362.0
TOTAL 28,055.3 42,705.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM PERCENTAGE REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(109 $.g)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 298.5 466.8
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 141.9 (200.6) 237.6 (336.2)
NSPS 56.7 ( 79.6) 56.7 ( 79.6)
ANSPS 85.2 (121.1) 180.9 (256.6)
Oil/Gas 16.4 ( 47.4) 17.9 ( 51.7)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.8 ( 3.9) 2.2 ( 4.8)
Turbine (GW) 14.6 ( 43.5) 15.7 ( 46.9)
Long Distance Transmission 6.8 7.0
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.2 269.7
Scrubbers (GW) 20.6 (175.6) 35.5 (311.7)
NSPS 3.0 ( 30.1) 3.0 ( 30.4)
ANSPS 14.0 (121.1) 28.9 (256.6)
Retrofit 3.6 ( 24.5) 3.6 ( 24.7)
Conversion to Western Coal Q.2 0.2
Total 505.2 779.2
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 712.6 712.6
ANSPS 703.9 704.9
Total 707.3 706.7
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 456.5 458.0
Turbines 335.0 335.1
Total 345.0 346.6
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 99.2 98.1
ANSPS 115.8 112.7
Retrofit 147.6 146.2
Total 117.4 113.9
(GW) -- Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZBD COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $.s)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
New England 2.0 (0.04) 16.4 (0.28)
Middle Atlantic 69.3 (0.74) 195.2 (1.18)
South Atlantic 268.7 (0.95) 738.5 (2.18)
EAST 340.0 950.1
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 120.2 (0.36) 558.1 (1.20)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 180.1 (1.01) 388.8 (1.93)
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 262.6 (1.66) ( 18.3) (1.99)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 243.4 (2.34) 915.3 (3.69)
Mountain 205.6 (2.30) 272.1 (2.56)
Pacific 31.7 (0.29) 117.8 (0.84)
WEST 237.3 389.9
Total Annualized Cost 1,383.7 (1.01) 3,180.9 (1.85)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 15,740.6 31,850.4
Objective Function 1,403.3 3,005.2
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function 16,041.5 30,401.6
Individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-21
CHANGE IN S02 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England ( 0.5) 16.1
Middle Atlantic 195.6 288.4
South Atlantic .273.7 679.4
EAST 468.8 983.9
EAST NORTH CENTRAL ( 116.3) ( 25.1)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 183.4 405.9
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 31.6 241.3
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 431.7 801.8
Mountain 238.1 330.4
Pacific 44.6 168.3
WEST 282.7 498.7
TOTAL 1,281.8 2,906.4
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VI-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR; 0.55 IBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR;
33% MINIMUM REMOVAL
WET SCRUBBING
($/ton)
1990 1995
EAST 725.3 965.6
CENTRAL 1,520.2 1,295.0
WEST 839.4 781.8
TOTAL 1,079.5 1,094.4
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tong)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
923.2
482.6
440.6
276.0
99.8
0.7
56.0
76.7
1,432.5
1,167.9
735.5
432.4
319.4
104.0
0.4
88.2
79.9
1,759.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
§
3
3)
in
O
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
68.6
-
-
60.8
129.3
194
182
-
0
3
2
383
.7
33.3
161.4
.5
.2
.1
.8
.3
445
.7
268.6
177.1
10.0
31
0
29
3
521
.2
.5
.8
.9
.1
282
83
-
-
23
9
398
.9
180.7
102.2
.4
.1
.2
.7
923
276
99
0
56
76
1,432
.2
482
440
.0
.8
.7
.0
.7
.5
.6
.6
-------
o
•n
o
3)
TJ
O
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/^ ommercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.4
-
-
63.8
235.9
71.0
164.9
214.3
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
536.4
369.3
167.0
27.1
32.6
0.2
41.4
10.0
395.6
295.1
100.5
78.0
-
-
41.5
3.2
1,167.9
735
432
319.4
104.0
0.4
88.2
79.9
.5
.4
135.2
458.6
647.7
518.4
1,759.8
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
East
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1975
48.4
101.8
150.2
1,835.9
371.1
1990
139.8
100.7
248.5
1,473.7
97.2
147.5
344.2
1995
103.3
5.9
73.2
182.4
1,462.3
103.0
303.0
298.9
2,207.6 2,062.5 2,167.3
2,632.2
746.1
3,124.4
188.7
472.6
498.8
3,080.6
261.2
966.8
303.6
3,378.3 4,283.4 4,612.2
4,516.5 4,737.9 4,646.2
285.9 364.2
620.1 1,275.7
1,219.6 843.0 675.7
5,136.1 6,594.4 6,961.9
6,771.8 5,002.9 4,856.9
324.8 356.5
138.3 369.6
103.4 124.2 86.0
6,885.2 5,590.2 5,669.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-3b
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,324.8 2,215.0
NSPS - 203.0 221.5
ANSPS - 400.0 680.3
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 83.8 65.1
Total 3,394.7 3,011.5 3,182.0
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,812.8 1,665.2
NSPS - 394.3 428.8
ANSPS - 62.9 141.5
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 55.7 36.5
Total 1,532.9 2,325.7 2,271.9
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 149.8 149.8
NSPS - 693.0 693.0
ANSPS - 230.0 384.2
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.8 451.4
Total 412.7 1,618.5 1,678.4
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 359.4 341.3
NSPS - 168.1 166.6
ANSPS - 112.3 209.1
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 31.6 25.0
Total 358.1 671.4 742.0
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 78.3 66.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 7.0 18.9
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 129.7 110.0
Total 195.7 232.5 213.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 437.7 408.0
NSPS - 185.6 184.1
ANSPS - 119.3 228.0
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 161.3 135.0
Total 553.8 903.9 955.1
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,465.7 13,941.1
NSPS - 2,086.6 2,248.2
ANSPS - 1,570.5 3,079.2
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,921.4 1,449.6
Total 18,705.3 20,044.2 20,718.1
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tong)
N0 TSP
1990 1995 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas 1,392.5 .1,077.8 169.0 128.5
Coal 6,945.6 8,328.2 785.5 849.2
Existing 3,920.2 3,662.7 513.6 482.2
NSPS 1,324.8 1,419.7 186.6 199.9
ANSPS 1,700.6 3^245.8 85.3 167.1
Total 8,338.1 9,406.0 954.5 977.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.7
10.3
3.7
5.7
4.6
9.7
3.4
24.8
9.6
4.0
11.1
3.6
13.5
3.4
Total 19.2 37.4 45.2
Percent of Total
Coal 48.4 52.7 54.9
Oil/Gas 32.3 12.3 8.0
Nuclear 8.9 25.9 29.9
Hydro and Other 10.4 9.1 7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.241 0.170
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.925 0.706
South Atlantic 1.010 0.838 0.527
EAST 2.259 2.003 1.403
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.416 0.297
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.196 0.168
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.166 0.132
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.984
Mountain 0.249 0.119 0.103
Pacific 0.787 0.564 0.498
WEST 1.036 0.683 0.601
TOTAL 6.175 4.649 3.585
Oil for Coal Transportation 0.276 0.349
TOTAL 4.925 3.934
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.180 0.142
Medium Sulfur 0.005 0.015
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.185 0.157
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.557 0.891
Medium Sulfur 1.048 1.126
Low Sulfur 0.044 0.054
Total 1.076 1.649 2.071
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.727 3.001
Medium Sulfur 1.957 1.915
Low Sulfur 0.305 0.410
Total 1.789 3.990 5.326
EAST
High Sulfur 2.482 4.034
Medium Sulfur 3.010 3.056
Low Sulfur 0.348 0.464
Total 2.912 5.841 7.554
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.685 2.225
Medium Sulfur 1.801 1.745
Low Sulfur 0.725 0.736
Total 2.670 4.212 4.707
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.845 2.452
Medium Sulfur 0.692 0.758
Low Sulfur 0.288 0.239
Total 1.328 2.825 3.448
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.463 0.499
Medium Sulfur 0.871 1.175
Low Sulfur 0.523 0.531
Total 0.783 1.857 2.205
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.110 0.058
Medium Sulfur 1.609 2.447
Low Sulfur 0.867 1.049
Total 0.119 2.586 3.555
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.244 1.673
Low Sulfur 0.875 1.058
Total 0.615 2.119 2.732
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.107 0.059
Low Sulfur 0.143 0.519
Total 0.069 0.251 0.578
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.351
Low Sulfur 1.018
Total 0.685 2.370
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 6.586 9.268
Medium Sulfur 9.335 10.914
Low Sulfur 3.770 4.596
Total 8.719 19.691 24.779
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Predominant Supply Region
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full) 0.455
ANSPS (No Scrub) -
Total 0.455
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total 6.703
BG
0.015
0.015
7.105
7.105
1.039
5.664
BG
BF
BG
0.289
0.289
0.057
0.223
Ohio
Northern West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
0.279
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.524
5.543
7.067
BF
BG
0.083
0.206
0.289
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania & Ohio
Virginia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
7.785
7.785
BG
0.272 Northern West Virginia
0.272
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
Demand Region
DRY SCRUBBING
Coal
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
12.479 BG 0.427 West Kentucky
12.479
21.174
7.795
4.375
4.375
0.427
21.174 BG 0.921 Illinois & West Kentucky
BG
0.921
18.534 BG 0.891 Northern West Virginia
18.534 0.891
7.795 BG 0.382 Illinois
0.382
0.158
0.158
Illinois &
Northern West Virginia
6.554 BG 0.263 Illinois
6.554
0.263
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VH-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
1.817 BG 0.060 Illinois
1.817 0.060
2.830
3.660
13.153
2.830 BG 0.097 Illinois
0.097
3.660 BG 0.155 Indiana
0.155
13.153 BG 0.635 Indiana & Illinois
0.635
0.527 BG 0.018 Indiana
0.527 0.018
14.190 BG 0.715 Illinois
14.190
0.715
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
Demand Region
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
DRY SCRUBBING
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
6.218
6.218
0.524
0.838
2.620
3.982
0.174
4.392
4.566
BG
SF
LA
LD
BD
SF
0.245 West Kentucky
O45
0.018 Wyoming
0.029 North Dakota
0.091 North Dakota
0.137
0.005
0.200
0.205
Wyoming
Wyoming
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Missour i
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
0.071
4.532
4.603
3.276
3.276
Illinois & Iowa
Wyoming
BG 0.002
SF 0.249
0.251
BG 0.105 Illinois
0.105
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Louisiana
ANSPS (Full) 0.374 BD
ANSPS (Full) 0.667 BF
ANSPS (Full) 1.818 BG
ANSPS (Full) 14.592 SF
Total 17.451
0.012 Wyoming
0.021 Oklahoma & Arkansas
0.058 Illinois
0.709 Wyoming
0.801
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Texas
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
AN5P5 (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
3.102
3.213
7.145
6.809
8.860
29.130
5.631
5.631
Coal
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
4.978
0.328
1.154
BA
BB
BD
SF
LF
SP
0.089
0.093
0.378
0.390
0.518
1.468
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico
Wyoming
Texas
0.309 Wyoming
0.309
4.978 SA 0.304 West Montana
0.304
0.328 SD 0.015 Wyoming
0.015
1.154 BB 0.047 Utah
0.047
1.438 BB 0.081 Utah
1.438
0.081
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIl-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Colorado
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Arizona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Washington/Oregon
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Coal
GW
0.243
8.976
9.219
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
BD
SF
0.009
0.517
0.526
New Mexico
Wyoming
3.447 BD 0.180 New Mexico
3.447
2.348
2.348
0.004
0.005
7.721
7.730
BD
BB
BD
SA
0.180
0.128 New Mexico
0.128
0.000 Utah
0.000 Wyoming
0.471 West Montana
0.471
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tona)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
1975
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
1990
219.2
170.1
11.7
401.0
392.2
25.0
430.6
455.6
1995
290.6
164.0
10.3
464.9
487.7
34.7
593.0
627.7
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
4.9
71.8
51.0
50.5
5.6
8.6
61.8
62.4
44.6
2.9
183.8
180.2
TOTAL
634.6 1,432.5 1,760.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-LOa
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
13.8
93.6
111.4
0.4
219.2
115.6
4.2
33.8
16.5
170.1
16.9
123.6
149.8
0.4
290.6
123.1
0.1
23.8
17.1
164.0
1.7
21.2
3.6
4.2
4.0
4.8
1.0
4.6
22.9
11.7
10.3
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
392.1
133.0
97.8
149.4
20.8
401.0
144.8
123.6
174.5
22.0
464.9
131.6
7.1
138.6
292.0
99.4
0.7
392.2
379.0
107.7
1.0
487.7
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.6
6.2
14.5
4.2
25.0
10.3
20.6
3.8
34.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-lOb
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
158.2
272.4
430.6
6.2
172.7
276.6
455.6
263.8
329.2
593.0
10.3
284.4
333.0
627.7
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
3.2
1.1
0.5
0.1
5.7
2.2
0.6
8.5
4.9
8.6
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
71.8
71.8
5.4
7.4
38.2
61.8
61.8
4.4
9.2
48.8
51.0
62.4
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
34.5
50.5
1.7
42.9
44.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-lOc
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical ~
High Sulfur - - -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 5.b ^.»
Low Sulfur °_ii 1—- =——
Total 4.5 5.6 2.9
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 5.5 4.5
High Sulfur 8.4 3'2 *''
Medium Sulfur 30.4 101.9 77.7
Tow Sulfur 11.7 73.2 92.4
LOWTotUal -5377 -180 180.2
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 138.5 149.2
High Sulfur 147.8 399.2 518.6
Medium Sulfur 197.0 523.4 644.3
Low Sulfur _62^5 371.3 _J£±
Total 509.0 1,432.5 1,760.5
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VII-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.12 1.19
Medium Sulfur 1.17 1.20
Low Sulfur 1.53 1.58
Regional Average 1.17 1.22
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.19 1.25
Medium Sulfur 1.31 1.42
Low Sulfur 1.51 1.59
Regional Average 1.48 1.57
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.47
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.05 1.16
Medium Sulfur 1.25 1.31
Low Sulfur 1.53 1.60
Regional Average 1.11 1.19
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.43
Low Sulfur 0.42 0.45
Regional Average 0.43 0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.39 0.41
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54
Regional Average 0.47 0.48
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VII-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur 1.16 1.22
Medium Sulfur 1.28 1.36
Low Sulfur 1.39 1.48
Regional Average 1.23 1.29
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.80 1.11
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.80 1.11
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94 1.04
Low Sulfur 0.98 1.05
Regional Average 1.03 1.09
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.70 0.87
Low Sulfur 0.66 0.79
Regional Average 0.67 0.79
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94 1.00
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.94 1.00
National
High Sulfur 1.07 1.16
Medium Sulfur 0.95 0.94
Low Sulfur 0.70 0.74
Regional Average 1.54 1.04
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-12a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'3)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.44
1.91
—
1.45
1.45
1.48
1.84
1.48
1.43
1.55
1.81
1.52
1.26
1.48
1.65
1.42
1.25
1.48
1.65
1.35
1.20
1.00
1.15
1.09
1.51
1.86
—
1.54
1.52
1.52
1.92
1.53
1.53
1.60
2.08
1.60
1.37
1.52
1.71
1.48
1.35
1.53
1.74
1.42
1.29
0.98
1.22
1.11
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(5/106 Btu)
(1978 5's)
.1990 1995
West South Central
High Sulfur 1.43 1.51
Medium Sulfur 1.04 1.21
Low Sulfur 1.40 1.44
Regional Average 1.18 1.28
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.91 0.77
Low Sulfur 0.72 0.92
Regional Average 0.80 0.83
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.07 1.13
Low Sulfur 1.07 1.11
Regional Average 1.07 1.11
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.30
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30,
Page C-VII-13a
O
1990 RATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDABD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/HHBTO CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Nest
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
New Middle South Bast North
England Atlantic Atlantic Central
11.6 95.4 80.8 31.2
20.2 86.0 54.9
6.1
61.6 171.2
-
-
-
29.3
16.2
-
-
Bast South Neat North
Central Central
_ _
7.1 0.7
5.6
133.0 24.3
0.8 1.4
-
24.7
14.2 74.3
0.3
-
-
Nest South
Central Mountain Pacific
.
1.2
-- - .
2.1
2.4 - 0.3
71.8
0.3
190.4 106.6 15.7
10.5 15.4 8.7
19.2 27.7 3.7
5.6
Total
219.0
170.1
11.7
392.2
4.9
71.8
25.0
430.5
51.1
50.6
5.6
11-6
115-6
234.5
302.8
160.7
125.7
297.6
150.0
34.0
1,432.5
O
O
33
s
30
m
o
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-13b
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO^/MtBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
O
-n
INCORPORATED
New Middle South East North Bast South Nest North West South
Origin England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
Northern Appalachia 10.0 115.6 112.4 52.2 - - -
Central Appalachia - 21.3 80.9 56.9 4.0 0.9 -
Southern Appalachia - - 5.2 - 5.1
Midwest - - 95.1 190.2 174.7 26.0 1.7
Central West - 0.7 2.6 5.1 - 0.1
Gulf - - - fii.8
Eastern Northern Great Plains - - - - - 34.6 - 0.1 -
Western Northern Great Plains - 26.1 12.6 83.2 278.0 154. 5 38.5
Rocky Mountains - IS. 3 - 3.3 15.0 16.6 12.2
Southwest - - - 14.3 29.0 1.3
Northwest -- - - - - - -2.9
Total 10.0 136.9 293.6 340.7 197.1 150.6 375.9 200.2 55.0
Total
290.2
164.0
10.3
487.7
S.S
61.8
34.7
592.9
62.4
44.6
2.9
1,760.0
-------
o
o
o
3)
•o
o
3)
DRAFT
May 30. 1979
Page C-VII-14a
Origin
Hew England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast North Central
Boat South Central
West Horth Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1990 INTER-REGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MKBTO CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(10s tons)
Destination
New
England
Middle
Atlantic
6.38
South
Atlantic
3.70
2.04
Bast North
Central
Bast South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
1.00
Mountain Pacific Total
3.70
6.38
2.04
1.00
6.38
5.74
1.00
10.82
10.82
10.82
23.94
m
o
-------
o
o
o
3D
•O
O
30
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-Ub
New Bngland
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
Bast North Central
Bast South Central
Nest North Central
west South Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
1995 INTER-RBGIONAL ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SOjAWBTO CEILING
DRY SCBDBBIHG
(106 tons)
Destination
3-70
5.14
0.31
5.14
3.70
0 31
3.70
5.14
°'31
12.48 12.48
12.48 21.63
m
o
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1975 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear 37.2 165.3 (66.9) 230.0 (66.9)
Coal 183.6 390.4 (58.2) 520.2 (54.9)
Existing* 183.6 197.9 (58.9) 197.9 (55.2)
NSPS - 80.5 (55.1) 80.5 (59.5)
ANSPS - 112.0 (59.2) 241.7 (53.2)
Oil/Gas 192.1 227.5 (20.0) 217.8 (15.8)
Steam* 147.3 143.5 (25.1) 132.1 (20.4)
Combined Cycle 2.7 6.4 (26.4) 8.8 (22.2)
Turbines 42.2 77.7 (10.0) 76.9 ( 7.1)
Hydro and Others 68.3 87.8 (44.0) 89.5 (43.5)
Total 481.2 871.0 (48.4) 1,057.4 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0 21.8
Coal 38.2 44.8 49.2
Oil/Gas 39.9 26.1 20.6
Other 14.2 10.1 8.5
* Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-Vll-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
New England
Nuclear 10.1 (70.0) 14.0 (70.0)
Coal 4.0 (56.2) 4.4 (36.9)
Existing 4.0 (56.2) 4.0 (36.8)
NSPS
ANSPS - 0.5 (38.0)
Oil/Gas 8.8 (28.5) 7.4 (24.0)
Steam 7.7 (30.7) 5.2 (30.0)
Combined Cycle 0.4 (30.6) 0.4 (30.6)
Turbines 0.8 ( 5.0) 1.8 ( 5.0)
Hydro and Others 2.9 (18.1) 2.9 (18.1)
Total 25.8 (47.8) 28.7 (47.8)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 39.1 48.8
Coal 15.5 15.3
Oil/Gas 34.1 25.8
Other 11.2 10.1
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear 26.2 (65.3) 36.4 (65.3)
Coal 31.5 (59.5) 44.1 (53.6)
Existing 20.1 (60.6) 20.1 (57.2)
NSPS 3.1 (65.7) 3.8 (70.0)
ANSPS 8.3 (54.6) 20.9 (47.7)
Oil/Gas 38.2 (23.3) 34.3 (20.1)
Steam 21.1 (31.5) 20.9 (29.2)
Combined Cycle 0.4 (29.2) 0.4 (22.6)
Turbines 16.7 (12.9) 13.0 ( 5.3)
Hydro and Others 8.0 (46.1) 9.0 (41.4)
Total 103.8 (46.6) 123.8 (46.9)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 25.2 29.4
Coal 30.3 35.6
Oil/Gas 36.8 27.7
Other 7.7 7.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
South Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
32.2 (66.2)
81.6 (58.5)
47.0 (62.8)
9.3 (40.2)
25.4 (57.4)
39.4 (21.0)
22.3 (28.8)
0.6 (35.9)
16.4 ( 9.8)
10.4 (23.8)
163.5 (48.8)
19.7
49.9
24.1
6.4
1995
44.7 (66.2)
116.2 (54.5)
47.0 (61.0)
9.3 (58.0)
60.0 (48.9)
34.4 (14.7)
18.0 (20.9)
0.6 (25.0)
15.7 ( 7.2)
10.5 (23.7)
205.7 (48.8)
21.7
56.5
16.7
5.1
East North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
33.0 (67.7)
86.1 (55.3)
62.9 (58.6)
14.5 (45.3)
8.7 (47.9)
20.5 (18.4)
10.7 (25.6)
0.2 (25.0)
9.6 (10.3)
1.7 (16.9)
141.2 (52.4)
23.4
61.0
14.5
1.2
45.9 (67.7)
100.7 (53.1)
62.9 (55.8)
14.5 (49.8)
23.4 (47.7)
18.5 (14.1)
9.5 (18.6)
0.2 (24.8)
8.8 ( 8.9)
1.7 (16.9)
166.9 (52.4)
27.5
60.3
11.1
1.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
East South Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
23.0 (67.4)
59.6 (55.5)
30.2 (55.1)
8.4 (48.7)
21.0 (58.7)
15.1 (11.5)
3.0 (18.7)
12.1 ( 9.8)
6.7 (41.6)
104.4 (50.9)
22.0
57.1
14.5
6.4
1995
32.0 (67.4)
76.4 (52.9)
30.2 (49.7)
8.4 (53.9)
37.7 (55.2)
16.1 ( 8.9)
3.0 (12.1)
13.2 ( 8.2)
6.8 (40.9)
131.3 (50.4)
24.4
58.2
12.3
5.2
West North Central
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
9.1 (65.0)
39.3 (52.8)
18.4 (50.5)
14.0 (56.6)
6.9 (51.3)
14.7 ( 9.7)
4.3 (15.1)
0.9 (25.0)
10.3 ( 7.4)
4.1 (41.2)
67.1 (44.4)
13.6
58.6
21.9
6.1
12.6 (65.0)
48.8 (50.5)
18.4 (44.5)
14.0 (62.5)
16.4 (47.1)
16.1 ( 7.1)
4.3 ( 7.0)
0.9 ( 8.0)
11.0 ( 7.0)
4.1 (41.2)
80.9 (44.1)
15.6
60.3
19.9
5.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
West South Central
Nuclear 13.1 (65.0) 18.3 (65.0)
Coal 46.2 (64.8) 69.8 (58.3)
Existing 2.2 (64.8) 2.2 (64.8)
NSPS 20.9 (65.0) 20.9 (65.0)
ANSPS 23.0 (64.7) 46.6 (55.0)
Oil/Gas 59.3 (19.7) 58.0 (16.0)
Steam 55.7 (20.4) 54.4 (16.5)
Combined Cycle .1.4 (12.9) 1.4 (12.9)
Turbines 2.2 ( 6.0) 2.2 ( 6.0)
Hydro and Others 2.5 (19.5) 2.5 (19.5)
Total 121.0 (41.8) 148.4 (42.0)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 10.8 12.3
Coal 38.2 47.0
Oil/Gas 49.0 39.1
Other 2.1 1.7
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
4.3 (65.4)
38.2 (63.7)
11.8 (63.4)
10.0 (61.4)
16.3 (65.3)
7.6 (14.7)
3.1 (20.6)
0.5 (19.9)
3.9 ( 9.4)
9.2 (45.9)
5.9 (65.4)
50.3 (62.2)
11.8 (58.8)
10.0 (60.3)
28.5 (64.2)
7.9 (11.7)
2.9 (14.7)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
Total 59.1 (54.8) 73.7 (54.9)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.3 8.0
Coal 64.6 68.2
Oil/Gas 12.9 10.7
Other 15.6 13.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Ex i s t i ng
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.1 (70.0)
1.3 (70.0)
0.5 (70.0)
2.3 (70.0)
24.0 (25.2)
15.6 (29.7)
2.8 (31.1)
5.6 ( 9.8)
42.4 (53.1)
84.9 (48.9)
17.0
4.8
28.3
49.9
165.3 (66.9)
390.4 (58.2)
197.9 (58.9)
80.5 (55.1)
112.0 (59.2)
227.5 (20.0)
143.5 (25.1)
6.4 (26.4)
77.7 (10.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.0 (48.4)
19.0
44.8
26.1
10.1
20.1 (70.0)
9.5 (69.8)
1.3 (68.9)
0.5 (70.0)
7.7 (70.0)
26.0 (20.5)
13.9 (26.1)
5.2 (24.7)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.9 (49.6)
20.5
9.7
26.6
43.3
230.0 (66.9)
520.2 (54.9)
197.9 (55.2)
80.5 (59.5)
241.7 (53.2)
217.8 (15.8)
132.1 (20.4)
8.8 (22.2)
76.9 ( 7.1)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.4 (48.5)
21.8
49.2
20.6
8.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - 0.455 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - 0.455 (90.0)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.951 (90.0) 1.951 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 8.265 (90.0) 20.875 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 5.994 (43.7) 5.991 (44.1)
NSPS 2.674 (64.1) 2.674 (64.1)
ANSPS - - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.945 (55.1) 7.942 (55.4)
NSPS 2.674 (64.1) 2.674 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.265 (90.0) 20.875 (90.0)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 25.397 (90.0) 59.972 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Exist.i.ng 22.273 (51.3) 21.876 (51.5)
NSPS 2.359 (60.6) 2.433 (61.8)
ANSPS - - - -
Total. Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 22.273 (51.3) 21.876 (51.5)
NSPS 2.359 (60.6) 2.433 (61.8)
ANSPS 25.397 (90.0) 59.972 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VH-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.951 (90.0) 1.951 (90.0)
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 33.662 (90.0) 81.302 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 31.582 (52.8) 31.182 (54.2)
NSPS 5.033 (62.5) 5.107 (63.0)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 33.533 (55.0) 33.133 (56.3)
NSPS 5.033 (62.5) 5.107 (63.0)
ANSPS 33.662 (90.0) 81.302 (90.0)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 8.718 (90.0) 23.369 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.692 (74.1) 7.687 (74.2)
NSPS 4.829 (29.3) 4.674 (32.1)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.692 (74.1) 7.687 (74.2)
NSPS 4.829 (29.3) 4.674 (32.1)
ANSPS 8.718 (90.0) 23.369 (90.0)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 20.994 (90.0) 37.748 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.841 (76.0)
NSPS 3.540 (42.7) 4.390 (45.4)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.841 (76.0)
NSPS 3.540 (42.7) 4.390 (45.4)
ANSPS 20.994 (90.0) 37.748 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 6.924 (90.0) 16.426 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS 5.001 (35.9) 5.001 (35.9)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS 5.001 (35.9) 5.001 (35.9)
ANSPS 6.924 (90.0) 16.426 (90.0)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 22.984 (90.0) 46.581 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) .1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.095 (64.1) 5.095 (64.1)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.095 (64.1) 5.095 (64.1)
ANSPS 22.984 (90.0) 46.581 (90.0)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 16.347 (90.0) 28.544 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.119 (27.7) 3.089 (28.1)
NSPS 9.313 (55.8) 9.313 (54.0)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.119 (27.7) 3.089 (28.1)
NSPS 9.313 (55.8) 9.313 (54.0)
ANSPS 16.347 (90.0) 28.544 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-Vll-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 2.334 (90.0) 7.730 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 2.334 (90.0) 7.730 (90.0)
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 18.681 (90.0) 36.274 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.119 (27.7) 3.089 (28.1)
NSPS 9.313 (55.8) 9.313 (54.0)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.119 (27.7) 3.089 (28.1)
NSPS 9.313 (55.8) 9.313 (54.0)
ANSPS 18.681 (90.0) 36.274 (90.0)
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 1.951 (90.0) 1.951 (90.0)
NSPS - ~ -
ANSPS 111.964 (90.0) 241.701 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 48.345 (57.2) 47.907 (57.4)
NSPS 32.811 (49.8) 33.579 (50.0)
ANSPS - - ~
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 50.296 (58.5) 49.858 (58.7)
NSPS 32.811 (49.8) 33.579 (50.0)
ANSPS 111.964 (90.0) 241.701 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 896.2 660.6
Middle Atlantic 3,621.7 5,675.4
South Atlantic 9,050.7 15,795.0
EAST 13,568.6 22,131.0
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 4,287.0 7,208.6
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 6,879.1 10,411.8
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 1,447.5 2,848.1
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 5,176.5 8,224.8
Mountain 2,942.2 4,752.8
Pacific 155.7 424.7
WEST 3,097.9 5,177.5
TOTAL 34,456.6 56,001.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(109 $,8)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 293.5 458.2
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 21.1.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 136.3 (192.5) 228.3 (322.2)
NSPS 57.4 ( 80.5) 57.4 ( 80.5)
ANSPS 78.9 (112.0) 170.9 (241.7)
Oil/Gas 17.0 ( 49.3) 18.6 ( 53.2)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.7 ( 3.7) 2.8 ( 6.1)
Turbine (GW) 15.3 ( 45.6) 15.8 ( 47.1)
Long Distance Transmission 6.2 6.7
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.0 269.7
Scrubbers (GW) 21.6 (189.4) 40.4 (319.4)
NSPS 1.8 ( 32.8) 1.8 ( 33.6)
ANSPS 16.1 (112.0) 34.9 (241.7)
Retrofit 3.7 ( 44.6) 3.7 ( 44.2)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.1 0'^
Total 500.4 775.0
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 712.7 712.7
ANSPS 705.6 707.0
Total 708.0 708.4
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 456.1 459.3
Turbines 335.0 334.9
Total. 344.1 349.2
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 53.9 52.7
ANSPS 143.8 144.2
Retrofit 84.1 84.9
Tota] 114.2 126.4
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $.s)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
New England 8.2 (0.17) 3.1.2 (0.53)
Middle Atlantic 60.7 (0.90) 215.1 (1.46)
South Atlantic 354.1 (1.12) 921.8 (2.55)
EAST 423.0 1,168.1
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 350.7 (0.77) 833.8 (1.48)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 262.5 (1.41) 462.9 (2.30)
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 193.3 (1.19) ( 55.2) (3.09)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 451.5 (3.68) 1,182.4 (5.09)
Mountain ( 112.1) (3.77) 446.2 (4.67)
Pacific 682.1 (3.95) 383.1 (2.37)
WEST 570.0 829.3
Total Annualized Cost 2,250.8 (1.67) 4,421.7 (2.55)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 25,536.5 44,999.0
Objective Function 2,151.2 4,751.9
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function 24,535.1 47,525.6
Individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-21
CHANGE IN SO2 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England - 14.3
Middle Atlantic 169.2 231.7
South Atlantic 239.3 464.3
EAST 408.5 710.3
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 26.6 44.9
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 181.5 334.5
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 86.1 326.3
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 546.0 942.3
Mountain 355.5 489.6
Pacific 37.8 249.6
WEST 393.3 739.2
TOTAL 1,642.0 3,097.6
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VII-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
($/ton)
1990 1995
EAST
CENTRAL
WEST
1,035.5
1,497.3
1,449.3
1,644.5
1,470.8
1,121.9
TOTAL 1,370.8 1,427.4
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-vili-1
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Sector 1990 1995
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Expor t
Total
928.4
437.2
491.2
276.1
99.9
0.7
55.7
76.8
1,437.7
1,173.2
699
473
319.1
104.1
0.4
88.7
80.0
1,765.5
.6
.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
o
o
o
7)
s
3D
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-2a
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1990 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
68.7
-
195
182
-
0
.6
27.6
168.0
.7
.2
3.4
60.8
129.5
2
384
.8
.6
450
15
31
0
34
3
536
.3
228.2
222.1
.6
.2
.5
.7
.9
.2
282
77
-
-
17
9
387
.6
181.5
101.1
.8
.7
.3
.3
928
276
99
0
55
76
1,437
.4
437
491
.1
.9
.7
.7
.8
.7
.2
.2
m
O
-------
o
o
o
3D
s
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-2b
Sector
Electric Utility
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Commercial
Synthetics
Export
Total
1995 COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Metallurgical Low Sulfur Medium Sulfur High Sulfur
Total
-
-
71.5
-
-
63.8
135.3
229
214
-
0
5
2
452
.8
64.6
165.2
.0
.1
.3
.9
.1
553
24
32
0
41
10
662
.9
344.9
209.0
.3
.6
.3
.5
.0
.6
389
80
-
-
41
3
515
.5
290.1
99.4
.9
.9
.2
.5
1,173
319
104
0
88
80
1,765
.2
699
473
.1
.1
.4
.7
.0
.5
.6
.5
d
o
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-3a
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
132.7
108.7
150.2
1,835.9
371.1
2,207.6
2,632.2
746.1
3,378.3 4,262.7
241.4
1,475.4
104.8
156.6
344.8
2,081.6
98.4
19.1
55.9
173.3
1,461.3
102.0
305.5
300.2
2,169.0
3,128.6
163.4
473.0
497.7
3,051.3
196.8
1,008.8
303.6
4,560.5
East
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
4,516.5
1,219.6
5,136.1
6,771.8
103.4
4,736.7
268.2
629.6
951.2
6,585.7
5,008.0
327.2
143.7
123.7
4,611.0
298.8
1,333.4
659.7
6,902.8
4,824.5
344.6
373.2
85.5
6,885.2 5,602.5 5,627.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-3b
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1975 1990 1995
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,328.3 2,215.5
NSPS - 211.1 221.6
ANSPS - 394.8 681.5
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 83.8 65.1
Total 3,394.7 3,017.9 3,183.7
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,712.0 1,652.5
NSPS - 393.3 414.7
ANSPS - 62.9 136.7
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 55.4 36.3
Total 1,532.9 2,253.6 2,240.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 150.0 150.0
NSPS - 696.4 696.4
ANSPS - 227.1 390.3
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 545.7 451.6
Total 412.7 1,619.2 1,688.2
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 322.9 342.4 325.5
NSPS - 169.7 168.1
ANSPS - 115.6 209.7
Oil/Gas Plants 25.2 31.6 25.0
Total 358.1 659.2 728.4
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 78.3 66.7
NSPS - 17.5 17.5
ANSPS - 7.0 18.9
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 123.1 110.0
Total 195.7 225.8 213.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-3c
ANNUAL S02 EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tong)
1975 1990 1995
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 420.7 392.2
NSPS - 187.2 185.6
ANSPS - 122.6 228.6
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 154.7 135.0
Total 553.8 885.0 941.5
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,385.4 13,845.5
NSPS - 2,083.6 2,161.9
ANSPS - 1,580.6 3,143.6
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 1,914.4 1,433.1
Total 18,705.3 19,964.0 20,584.1
Source for 1975 data: EPA National Emissions Data
System, Computer Printout,
May 1, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-4
ANNUAL NATIONAL NOX AND PARTICIPATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
NO TSP
1990 1995 1990 1995
NATIONAL
Oil/Gas 1,383.6 1,064.9
Coal 6,962.3 8,337.6
Existing 3,921.5 3,657.4
NSPS 1,324.7 1,375.8
ANSPS 1,716.2 3^304.4
Total 8,345.9 9,402.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-5
NATIONAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
1975
9.3
9.3
6.2
1.7
2.0
1990
19.7
10.3
3.7
5.7
4.6
9.7
3.4
19.2
37.4
1995
24.8
9.6
3.9
11.3
3.6
13.5
3.4
45.3
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
52.7
12.3
25.9
9.1
54.7
7.9
29.8
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-6
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.241 0.133
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.928 0.712
South Atlantic 1.010 0.837 0.527
EAST 2.259 2.006 1.372
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.317 0.412 0.293
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 0.112 0.196 0.168
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.289 0.164 0.132
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.185 0.985
Mountain 0.249 0.119 0.103
Pacific 0.787 0.538 0.498
WEST 1.036 0.657 0.601
TOTAL 6.175 4.620 3.550
Oil for Coal Transportation 0.277 0.352
TOTAL 4.897 3.902
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VHI-7a
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
New England
High Sulfur 0.188 0.170
Medium Sulfur 0.014 0.021
Low Sulfur - -
Total 0.047 0.203 0.191
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 0.469 0.719
Medium Sulfur 1.209 1.382
Low Sulfur 0.015 0.010
Total 1.076 1.693 2.112
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.818 3.092
Medium Sulfur 1.947 1.992
Low Sulfur 0.190 0.209
Total 1.789 3.955 5.293
EAST
High Sulfur 2.475 3.981
Medium Sulfur 3.171 3.395
Low Sulfur 0.204 0.220
Total 2.912 5.850 7.596
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.721 2.160
Medium Sulfur 1.626 1.724
Low Sulfur 0.870 0.830
Total 2.670 4.217 4.714
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 1.824 2.459
Medium Sulfur 0.709 0.720
Low Sulfur 0.295 0.272
Total 1.328 2.827 3.451
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.442 0.472
Medium Sulfur 0.883 1.182
Low Sulfur 0.536 0.536
Total 0.783 1.860 2.189
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-7b
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(quadrillion Btu)
1975 1990 1995
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur 0.098 0.050
Medium Sulfur 1.627 2.507
Low Sulfur 0.867 1.024
Total 0.119 2.593 3.581
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.251 1.672
Low Sulfur 0.900 1.064
Total 0.615 2.151 2.736
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.107 0.059
Low Sulfur 0.143 0.519
Total 0.069 0.251 0.578
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 1.358 1.731
Low Sulfur 1.043 1.583
Total 0.685 2.402 3.314
NATIONAL
High Sulfur 6.560 9.123
Medium Sulfur 9.374 11.260
Low Sulfur 3.815 4.464
Total 8.719 19.749 24.847
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-8a
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/toMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Maine/Vt./New Hampshire
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
Coal
Type
Predominant Supply Region
Mass./Conn./Rhode Island
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Pennsylvania, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.471
1.471
7.555
7.555
BF
0.049 Ohio
0.049
BG 0.327
0.327
Northern West Virginia
Pennsylvania, East/N.J./N.Y.DS
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
New York, Upstate
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
virginia/Md./Del.
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
West Virginia
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
1.791
4.927
6.718
2.078
4.995
7.073
7.769
7.769
BF
BG
BF
BG
BG
0.098
0.182
0.280
0.114
0.178
0.291
0.271
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Ohio & Pennsylvania & Ohio
0.271 Northern West Virginia
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-8b
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
Demand Region
North & South Carolina
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Georgia/North Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
South Florida
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, North
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, Central
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Ohio, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Michigan
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
WET SCRUBBING
Coal
GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
12.460 BG 0.421 West Kentucky
12.460 0.421
21.224 BG 1.037 Illinois
21.224 1.037
18.534 BG 0.891 Northern West Virginia
18.534 0.891
4.375
7.957 BG 0.391 Illinois
0.391
7.957
4.375 BG 0.158 Northern West Virginia
0.158
6.554 BG 0.263 Illinois
6.554
0.263
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIIl-8c
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Illinois
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Indiana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wisconsin
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kentucky, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, East
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Tennessee, West
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
GW
1.817
1.817
2.830
3.660
Coal
Type
BG
Quads Predominant Supply Region
0.060 Illinois
0.060
2.830 BG 0.097 Illinois
0.097
3.660 BG 0.155 Indiana
0.155
13.153 BG 0.608 Indiana & Illinois
13.153 0.608
0.527 BG 0.002 Indiana
0.527 0.002
14.190 BG 0.715 Illinois
14.190
0.715
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-8d
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
Demand Region
Alabama/Mississippi
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
North & South Dakota/Minnesota
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Kansas/Nebraska
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Iowa
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
M i ssou r i
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Arkansas/Oklahoma/Loui siana
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
GW
Coal
Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
6.218
6.218
0.155
0.472
0.838
2.517
3.982
0.170
0.005
4.392
4.566
0.043
4.583
4.627
2.939
2.939
0.371
0.638
1.559
15.208
17.776
BG
SA
SF
LA
LD
BD
BH
SF
BD
SF
BG
BD
BF
BG
SF
0.046
0.046
0.005
0.016
0.029
0.089
0.139
0.005
0.000
0.200
0.205
0.001
0.251
0.252
0.094
0.094
0.012
0.021
0.050
0.738
0.820
West Kentucky
West Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Missouri
Wyoming
Wyoming
Wyoming
Illinois
-
-
-
Wyoming
Oklahoma & Arkansas
Illinois
Wyoming
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-8e
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
Demand Region
Texas
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (Full)
Total
Idaho
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Montana
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Wyoming
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Utah
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
Nevada
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
ANSPS (No Scrub)
Total
WET SCRUBBING
GW
2.473
2.959
7.574
7.363
8.760
29.129
5.626
4.978
Coal
Type
BA
BB
3D
SF
LF
Quads Predominant Supply Region
0.071
0.085
0.378
0.421
0.513
1.469
South Colorado
South Colorado
New Mexico
Wyoming
Texas
5.626 SF 0.309 Wyoming
0.309
4.978 SA 0.304 West Montana
0.304
0.328 SD 0.015 Wyoming
0.328 0.015
1.149 BB 0.046 Utah
1.149 0.046
1.035 BB 0.057 Utah
1.035
0.057
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-8f
1995 ANSPS COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
Coal
Demand Region GW Type Quads Predominant Supply Region
Colorado
ANSPS (Full) 0.197 BD 0.007 New Mexico
ANSPS (Full) 9.020 SF 0.519 Wyoming
ANSPS (No Scrub) - — -
Total 9.218 0.526
Ar izona
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full) 4.056 BD 0.212 New Mexico
ANSPS (No Scrub) - -- -
Total 4.056 0.212
New Mexico
ANSPS (Part) -
ANSPS (Full) 2.177 BD 0.119 New Mexico
ANSPS (No Scrub) - ~ -
Total 2.177 0.119
Wa shi ng ton/Oregon
ANSPS (Full) 0.004 BB 0.000 Utah
ANSPS (Full) 0.005 BD 0.000 Wyoming
ANSPS (Full) 7.721 SA 0.471 West Montana
ANSPS (No Scrub) - ~ -
Total 7.730 0.471
California, North
ANSPS (Part) -
ANSPS (Full) -
ANSPS (No Scrub) - ~ -
Total
California, South
ANSPS (Part)
ANSPS (Full) -
ANSPS (No Scrub) - — -
Total
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-9
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
1975
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
1990
399.4
390.4
24.9
433.8
458.7
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
5.7
71.8
54.0
50.6
5.7
1995
158.2
211.1
22.9
209.0
178.1
12.2
285.0
167.9
9.9
462.8
486.7
34.6
598.3
632.9
8.6
61.8
64.
44
.6
.6
2.9
50.0
187.7
182.3
TOTAL
634.6 1,436.1 1,764.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-lOa
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
17.4
85.8
105.4
0.4
209.0
124.0
4.2
32.8
17.1
178.1
19.7
120.6
144.3
0.4
285.0
127.3
0.1
23.3
17.3
167.9
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.8
0.6
4.6
22.9
12.2
9.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical 98.2 145.3 151.7
High Sulfur 130.7 90.0 120.7
Medium Sulfur 150.5 142.4 168.1
Low Sulfur 12.8 21.6 22.3
Total 392.1 399.3 462.8
MIDWEST
Metallurgical - - -
High Sulfur 131.6 293.6 379.0
Medium Sulfur 7.1 96.1 106.8
Low Sulfur - 0.7 1.0
Total 138.6 390.4 486.7
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical - -
High Sulfur 0.3 0.3 10.3
Medium Sulfur 7.8 20.3 20.5
Low Sulfur 0.4 4.2 3.8
Total 8.6 24.9 34.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-lOb
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
156.3
277.5
433.8
0.3
176.7
281.7
458.7
265.6
332.7
598.3
10.3
286.1
336.5
632.9
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.1
3.9
1.1
0.5
0.1
5.7
2.2
0.6
8.5
10.0
10.0
5.7
71.8
71.8
8.6
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
5.5
7.3
41.4
4.4
9.2
51.0
54.1
64.6
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
34.6
50.6
1.1
43.5
44.6
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-lOc
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
1975
1990
1995
Northwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.7
0.8
4.5
5.6
5.6
2.9
2.9
WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
30.4
11.7
53.7
5.6
3.9
101.7
76.5
187.7
4.5
5.7
77.1
95.1
182.3
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
101.7
147.8
197.0
62.5
509.0
150.9
387.8
516.9
380.5
1,436.1
156.2
515.7
638.1
454.8
1,764.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VIII-lla
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.17
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.49 1.57
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.48 1.62
Midwest
High Sulfur 1.06 1.16
Medium Sulfur 1.24 1.30
Low Sulfur 1.55 1.60
Regional Average 1.10 1.19
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.43
Low Sulfur 0.42 0.45
Regional Average 0.43 0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.89 1.00
Low Sulfur Q.99 1.07
Regional Average 0.95 1.04
Western Northern Great Plains
(Subbituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.39 0.41
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54
Regional Average 0.46 0.48
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
June 1, 1979
Page C-VIII-llb
MINE-MOUTH PRICE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS?
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Gulf
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.80 1.11
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.80 1.11
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.93 1.04
Low Sulfur 0.98 1.06
Regional Average 1.02 1.09
Southwest
High Sulfur —
Medium Sulfur 0.66 0.87
Low Sulfur 0.68 0.80
Regional Average 0.67 0.80
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.94 1.00
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 0.94 1.00
National
High Sulfur 1.07 1.16
Medium Sulfur 0.93 0.94
Low Sulfur 0.71 0.74
Regional Average 1.00 1.04
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-L2a
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 Btu)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.42 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.74 1.81
Low Sulfur — —
Regional Average 1.44 1.53
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.46 1.52
Medium Sulfur 1.45 1.51
Low Sulfur 1.79 1.85
Regional Average 1.46 1.52
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.43 1.53
Medium Sulfur 1.66 1.70
Low Sulfur 1.82 1.87
Regional Average 1.56 1.61
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.42
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.26 1.36
Medium Sulfur 1.45 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.68 1.76
Regional Average 1.35 1.42
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.20 1.29
Medium Sulfur 1.02 1.00
Low Sulfur 1.16 1.22
Regional Average 1.00 1.11
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VUI-12b
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
($/106 etu)
(1978 $'S)
1990 1995
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.71
Low Sulfur 0.91
Regional Average 0.80
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.31
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due
to the averaging (consumption weighted) associated with aggregating the
39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between scenarios. This
can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower-priced
coal and less higher-priced coal is forecasted.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
O
Z
o
o
B
-a
O
3J
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Hew
EnglaiK
11.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-13a
1990 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
J Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
97.8 66.8 32.4 - - _
19-4 93.4 57.0 6.5 0.7 1.2
6.6 - 5.6 ...
66.9 166.3 132.3 23.2 1.7
1.0 1.4 2.9 - 0.3
71.8
24.8 - 0.2
27-s 15-1 75.4 193.1 106.9 15.7
I'-7 - 0.3 10.7 13.2 9.3
17.3 30.2 3.1
~ - - 5.6
Total
208.6
178.2
12.2
390.4
5.6
71.8
25.0
433.7
53.2
50.6
5.6
11.6
117.2
3.7
302. <
160.5
125.8
298.7
150.5
34.0
1,434.9
m
O
-------
o
Tl
z
n
o
21
TJ
O
Origin
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Central Beat
Gulf
Eastern northern Great Plains
Western northern Great Plains
Rocky Mountains
Southwest
Northwest
Total
DRAFT
Nay 30, 1979
Page C- VI I I- 13 b
1995 NATIONAL COAL TRANSPORTATION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STAHDATO Of 90% REMOVAL HITS HASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MIBTO CEILING
WFT SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific
11.3 118.2 101.5 53.4 -
20.1 86.5 S6.6 3.9 0.9 -
- - 5.0 - 4.9
99.7 187.3 173.8 24.5 1.3
- - - - 0.6 2.7 5.1 - 0.1
- 61.8
34.5 - 0.1
25.1 14.5 84.0 281.6 154.6 38.5
- - - 18.6 - 3.2 14.0 16.0 12.7
14.1 29.8 0.7
- - - 2.9
11.3 138.3 292.7 341.0 197.7 149.8 377.9 200.5 54.9
Total
284.4
168.0
9.9
486.6
8.5
61.8
34.6
598.3
64.5
44.6
2.9
1,764.1
-------
CRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-14a
1990 IWTKR-REGIOHAL KIBCTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STAMDA8D OP 90% REMOVAL Him MASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LB5. SO2/NKBTD CEILING
WKt SCRUBBING
(10* tons)
Destination
Bev Middle South Bast Bortfa Bast South Meet North West South
Origin Knqland Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
•e» England --__ _ _ _ ...
Middle Atlantic - - 3.70 - - - - - - 3.70
Sooth Atlantic - 5.61 - - - - _ . -5.61
•art Bortfa Central ____ _ _ .___
BBBt Sooth Central - - 2.04 - - - - 2.04
•e«t Bartt Central - _ _ x.OO - - i.oo
•eat Sontii Central -- - - - - _ _ __
•contain -__ _ _ _ . -11.26 11.26
Pacific --__ _ _ ___
o
o
o
TJ
o
3)
>
m
o
*t»tal - 5.61 5.74 - 1.00 - 11.26 23.61
-------
o
n
o
3D
s
m
O
DRAFT
Hay 30, 1979
Page C-V!II-14b
1995 INTER-REGIONAL EI£CTRICITY TRANSMISSION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STAHDARD OP 90% REM3VAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02./>e«BTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(106 tons)
Destination
New Middle South Bast North Bast South West North West South
Origin England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central Central Central Mountain Pacific Total
New England _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _
Middle Atlantic - - 3.70 - - - - - -3.70
South Atlantic 4. 37 - - - - - - 4.37
East North Central _ _ _ - _ _ _ ___
East South Central _-_- _ - ____
West North Central - - - - - - ___.
West South Central _-- _ _ _ _ ___
Mountain --_. - _ __ 12.48 12.48
Pacific - - - _- - _-_ - - - -
Total - 4.37 3.70 _____ 12.48 20.55
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-15
NATIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
1975
37.2
183.6
183.6
192.1
147.3
2.7
42.2
Hydro and Others 68.3
1990
Total
481.2
165.3 (66.9)
390.9 (58.2)
197.9 (58.8)
79.8 (55.3)
113.2 (59.2)
227.2 (19.9)
143.0 (25.0)
6.4 (26.2)
77.7 (10.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.1 (48.4)
1995
230.0 (66.9)
522.1 (54.9)
197.9 (55.0)
79.8 (57.6)
243.4 (53.9)
216.9 (15.6)
131.1 (20.2)
8.8 (22.2)
77.0 ( 7.1)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.4 (48.5)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.7 19.0
Coal 38.2 44.9
Oil/Gas 39.9 26.1
Other 14.2 10.1
21.8
49.3
20.5
8.5
* Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-16a
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
New England
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
1990
10.1 (70.0)
4.0 (56.2)
4.0 (56.2)
8.8 (28.5)
7.7 (30.7)
0.4 (30.6)
0.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
25.8 (47.8)
39.1
15.5
34.1
11.2
1995
14.0 (70.0)
5.5 (37.1)
4.0 (36.8)
1.5 (38.0)
6.3 ( 7.7)
4.2 (28.0)
0.4 (30.6)
1.8 ( 5.0)
2.9 (18.1)
28.7 (47.8)
48.8
19.2
22.0
10.1
Middle Atlantic
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
26.2 (65.3)
31.9 (60.2)
20.1 (60.9)
3.1 (70.0)
8.7 (55.2)
38.5 (23.2)
21.1 (31.5)
0.4 (29.2)
17.0 (12.8)
8.0 (46.1)
104.6 (46.8)
25.0
30.5
36.8
7.6
36.4 (65.3)
44.6 (54.0)
20.1 (57.2)
3.1 (67.9)
21.3 (49.0)
34.6 (20.1)
20.9 (29.3)
0.4 (29.2)
13.3 ( 5.4)
9.0 (41.4)
124.6 (47.0)
29.2
35.8
27.8
7.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-16b
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
South Atlantic
Nuclear 32.2 (66.2) 44.7 (66.2)
Coal 80.9 (58.4) 115.4 (54.4)
Existing 47.0 (62.8) 47.0 (59.9)
NSPS 8.5 (37.5) 8.5 (46.3)
ANSPS 25.4 (57.4) 60.0 (51.3)
Oil/Gas 39.4 (21.0) 34.4 (14.7)
Steam 22.3 (28.8) 18.0 (20.9)
Combined Cycle 0.6 (35.9) 0.6 (25.0)
Turbines 16.4 ( 9.8) 15.7 ( 7.2)
Hydro and Others 10.4 (23.8) 10.5 (23.7)
Total 162.8 (48.7) 205.0 (48.8)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 19.8 21.8
Coal 49.7 56.3
Oil/Gas 24.2 16.8
Other 6.4 5.1
East North Central
Nuclear 33.0 (67.7) 45.9 (67.7)
Coal 86.2 (55.3) 100.9 (53.0)
Existing 62.9 (58.5) 62.9 (56.2)
NSPS 14.5 (44.9) 14.5 (47.8)
ANSPS 8.9 (49.0) 23.5 (47.9)
Oil/Gas 20.3 (18.4) 18.4 (14.0)
Steam 10.7 (25.6) 9.5 (18.6)
Combined Cycle 0.2 (19.1) 0.2 (12.1)
Turbines 9.4 (10.2) 8.6 ( 8.9)
Hydro and Others 1.7 (16.9) 1.7 (16.9)
Total. 141.2 (52.4) 166.9 (52.4)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 23.4 27.5
Coal 6.1.0 60.5
Oil/Gas 14.4 11.0
Other 1.2 1.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-16c
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
East South Central
Nuclear 23.0 (67.4) 32.0 (67.4)
Coal 59.6 (55.5) 76.4 (52.9)
Existing 30.2 (55.2) 30.2 (49.7)
NSPS 8.4 (50.5) 8.4 (53.4)
ANSPS 21.0 (57.8) 37.7 (55.4)
Oil/Gas 15.1 (11.5) 16.1 ( 8.9)
Steam 3.0 (18.7) 3.0 (12.1)
Combined Cycle
Turbines 12.1 ( 9.8) 13.2 ( 8.2)
Hydro and Others 6.7 (41.6) 6.8 (40.9)
Total 104.4 (50.9) • 131.3 (50.4)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 22.0 24.4
Coal 57.1 58.2
Oil/Gas 14.5 12.3
Other 6.4 5.2
West North Central
Nuclear 9.1 (65.0) 12.6 (65.0)
Coal 39.4 (52.8) 48.5 (50.4)
Existing 18.4 (50.1) 18.4 (44.5)
NSPS 14.0 (57.2) 14.0 (61.7)
ANSPS 7.0 (51.0) 16.1 (47.5)
Oil/Gas 14.6 ( 9.6) 15.3 ( 7.0)
Steam 4.3 (15.1) 4.3 ( 6.9)
Combined Cycle 0.9 (25.0) 0.9 ( 8.0)
Turbines 10.2 ( 7.2) 11.0 ( 7.0)
Hydro and Others 4.1 (41.2) 4.1 (41.2)
Total 67.1 (44.4) 80.5 (44.0)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 13.6 15.7
Coal 58.7 60.2
Oil/Gas 21.8 19.0
Other 6.1 5.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-16d
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990 1995
West South Central
Nuclear 13.1 (65.0) 18.2 (65.0)
Coal 46.2 (64.8) 70.1 (58.4)
Existing 2.2 (64.4) 2.2 (64.4)
NSPS 20.9 (65.0) 20.9 (65.0)
ANSPS 23.0 (64.7) 46.9 (55.1)
Oil/Gas 59.3 (19.7) 58.0 (16.0)
Steam 55.7 (20.4) 54.4 (16.5)
Combined Cycle 1.4 (12.9) 1.4 (12.9)
Turbines 2.2 ( 6.0) 2.2 ( 6.0)
Hydro and Others 2.5 (19.5) 2.5 (19.5)
Total 121.1 (41.8) 148.8 (42.0)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 10.8 12.2
Coal 38.2 47.1
Oil/Gas 49.0 39.0
Other 2.1 1.7
Mountain
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
4.3 (65.4)
38.7 (63.6)
11.8 (63.2)
10.0 (61.4)
16.9 (65.2)
7.6 (14.7)
3.1 (20.6)
0.5 (19.9)
3.9 ( 9.4)
9.2 (45.9)
5.9 (65.4)
50.4 (62.1)
11.8 (58.9)
10.0 (60.3)
28.6 (64.1)
7.9 (11.7)
2.9 (14.7)
0.5 (13.7)
4.4 ( 9.5)
9.6 (45.5)
T°tal 59.6 (54.8) 73.7 (54.8)
Percent of Total
Nuclear 7.2 8.0
Coal 64.9 68.4
Oil/Gas 12.8 10.7
Other 15.4 13.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-16e
REGIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW (percent capacity factor))
1990
1995
Pacific
Nuclear
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
National
Nuclear
Coal
Existing*
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Steam*
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
14.4 (70.0)
4.1 (70.0)
1.3 (70.0)
0.5 (70.0)
2.3 (70.0)
23.6 (24.4)
15.2 (28.5)
2.8 (31.1)
5.6 ( 9.8)
42.4 (53.1)
84.5 (48.8)
17.0
4.9
27.9
50.2
165.3 (66.9)
390.9 (58.2)
197.9 (58.8)
79.8 (55.3)
113.2 (59.2)
227.2 (19.9)
143.0 (25.0)
6.4 (26.2)
77.7 (10.0)
87.8 (44.0)
871.1 (48.4)
19.0
44.9
26.1
10.1
20.1 (70.0)
9.5 (69.8)
1.3 (68.9)
0.5 (70.0)
7.7 (70.0)
26.0 (20.5)
13.9 (26.1)
5.2 (24.7)
6.9 ( 6.0)
42.4 (53.1)
97.9 (49.6)
20.5
9.7
26.6
43.3
230.0 (66.9)
521.1 (54.9)
197.9 (55.0)
79.8 (57.6)
243.4 (53.9)
216.9 (15.6)
131.1 (20.2)
8.8 (22.2)
77.0 ( 7.1)
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.4 (48.5)
21.8
49.3
20.5
8.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-17a
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
New England
Capacity Full Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - -
ANSPS - - 1.471 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS - - 1.471 (90.0)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 2.245 (90.0) 2.650 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 8.697 (90.0) 21.346 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.147 (64.1) 2.736 (59.2)
NSPS 2.180 (64.1) 2.808 (64.1)
ANSPS - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 5.392 (74.8) 5.386 (74.4)
NSPS 2.180 (64.1) 2.808 (64.1)
ANSPS 8.697 (90.0) 21.346 (90.0)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 2.555 (90.0) 2.555 (90.0)
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 25.435 (90.0) 59.987 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 3.715 (60.0) 4.002 (50.6)
NSPS 2.126 (64.2) 2.126 (64.1)
ANSPS - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 6.270 (90.0) 6.557 (66.0)
NSPS 2.126 (64.2) 2.126 (64.1)
ANSPS 25.435 (90.0) 59.987 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-17b
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO2 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW
East
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 5.205 (90.0)
NSPS - -
ANSPS 34.132 (90.0) 82.804 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 10.177 (67.7) 10.053 (62.5)
NSPS 4.306 (64.1) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 14.977 (74.9) 15.258 (71.9)
NSPS 4.306 (64.1) 4.934 (64.1)
ANSPS 34.132 (90.0) 82.804 (90.0)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 8.882 (90.0) 23.531 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 7.079 (75.6) 7.282 (72.9)
NSPS 2.620 (50.5) 2.619 (49.8)
ANSPS - - ~ -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 7.079 (75.6) 7.282 (72.9)
NSPS 2.620 (50.5) 2.619 (49.8)
ANSPS 8.882 (90.0) 23.531 (90.0)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - ~ ~
NSPS - -
ANSPS 20.997 (90.0) 37.748 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.842 (75.9)
NSPS 3.344 (56.3) 3.772 (47.8)
ANSPS - ~
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.842 (76.0) 4.842 (75.9)
NSPS 3.344 (56.3) 3.772 (47.8)
ANSPS 20.997 (90.0) 37.748 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-Vlll-17c
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 7.010 (90.0) 16.114 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS - - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - ~
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 7.010 (90.0) 16.114 (90.0)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 23.001 (90.0) 46.905 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing I.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.094 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.094 (64.1) 5.094 (64.1)
ANSPS 23.001 (90.0) 46.905 (90.0)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - ~
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 16.852 (90.0) 28.567 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.987 (27.8)
NSPS 9.313 (56.6) 9.309 (55.1)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.987 (27.8)
NSPS 9.313 (56.6) 9.309 (55.1)
ANSPS 16.852 (90.0) 28.567 (90.0)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-17d
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF S02 REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(GW)
1990 1995
GW (%) GW
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - - - -
ANSPS 2.334 (90.0) 7.730 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing - - -
NSPS -
ANSPS - - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing - - - -
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 2.334 (90.0) 7.730 (90.0)
Rest of West
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing -
NSPS - -
ANSPS 19.186 (90.0) 36.297 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.987 (27.8)
NSPS 9.313 (56.6) 9.309 (55.1)
ANSPS - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.994 (27.7) 1.987 (27.8)
NSPS 9.313 (56.6) 9.309 (55.1)
ANSPS 19.186 (90.0) 36.297 (90.0)
National
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 5.205 (90.0)
NSPS - - -
ANSPS 113.207 (90.0) 243.399 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 25.202 (68.2) 25.272 (65.4)
NSPS 30.309 (53.7) 30.730 (52.2)
ANSPS - -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 30.002 (82.2) 30.477 (69.6)
NSPS 30.309 (53.7) 30.730 (52.2)
ANSPS 113.207 (90.0) 243.399 (90.0)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-Vlli-18
SLUDGE GENERATED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. SO2/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 895.3 840.4
Middle Atlantic 3,653.4 5,624.2
South Atlantic 7,703.7 14,872.7
EAST 12,252.4 21,337.3
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 4,379.3 7,150.5
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 6,962.0 10,407.5
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 1,314.5 2,650.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 5,164.1 8,369.3
Mountain 2,990.7 4,754.1
Pacific 155.7 424.7
WEST 3,146.4 5,178.8
TOTAL 33,218.6 55,093.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-19
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(109 $.S)
(using 1978 dollars)
1990 1995
National
New Generation Capacity 293.9 459.2
Nuclear (GW) 140.2 (128.2) 211.3 (192.8)
Coal (GW) 136.6 (193.0) 229.1 (323.2)
NSPS 56.8 ( 79.8) 56.8 ( 79.8)
ANSPS 79.8 (113.2) 172.2 (243.4)
Oil/Gas 17.1 ( 49.8) 18.8 ( 53.7)
Combined Cycle (GW) 1.7 ( 3.7) 2.8 ( 6.1)
Turbine (GW) 15.4 ( 46.0) 16.0 ( 47.6)
Long Distance Transmission 6.3 6.8
Local Transmission and Distribution 179.1 269.7
Scrubbers (GW) 22.8 (167.8) 41.6 (298.9)
NSPS 2.9 ( 30.3) 2.9 ( 30.7)
ANSPS 16.3 (113.2) 35.1 (243.4)
Retrofit 3.6 ( 24.3) 3.6 ( 24.8)
Conversion to Western Coal 0.1 0.1
Total 502.3 777.3
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear 1,093.6 1,096.0
Coal
NSPS 712.7 712.7
ANSPS 704.6 707.6
Total 707.9 708.9
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle 456.1 459.3
Turbines 335.3 335.2
Total 344.4 349.3
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS 96.1 94.8
ANSPS 143.9 144.3
Retrofit 148.7 145.8
TotaJ 136.0 139.3
(GW) — Gigawatts.
* Gigawatts figures represent capacity built after 1975 rather than total.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-20
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY*
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(106 $'S)
(1978 $'s)
1990 1995
New England 5.7 (0.12) 20.2 (0.34)
Middle Atlantic 20.2 (0.68) 166.8 (1.25)
South Atlantic 313.7 (1.02) 835.9 (2.31)
EAST 339.6 1,022.9
EAST NORTH CENTRAL 390.9 (0.75) 1,087.2 (1.59)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 207.4 (1.13) 424.4 (2.11)
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 103.0 (1.88) ( 454.5) (2.44)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 424.7 (3.64) 1,239.8 (4.99)
Mountain ( 51.4) (2.98) 447.0 (4.34)
Pacific 520.6 (3.08) 337.7 (2.21)
WEST 469.2 784.7
Total Annualized Cost 1,935.0 (1.44) 4,104.2 (2.38)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 21,929.8 41,375.5
Objective Function 1,918.0 4,255.0
Present Value of Change
in Objective Function 21,863.0 42,812.1
Individual regional estimates can be distorted by changes in
transmission between regions, causing anomalies such that costs
or emissions decrease in one region while they increase in all
others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-21
CHANGE IN SO2 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT* STANDARD
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
(103 tons)
1990 1995
New England 6.6 19.7
Middle Atlantic 168.5 253.3
South Atlantic 190.5 501.4
EAST 365.6 774.4
EAST NORTH CENTRAL ( 160.3) ( 171.2)
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 181.5 354.6
WEST NORTH CENTRAL 151.9 417.0
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 553.6 942.5
Mountain 381.7 531.2
Pacific 50.6 255.4
WEST 432.3 786.6
TOTAL 1,524.4 3,103.9
Individual regional estimates can
be distorted by changes in trans-
mission between regions, causing
anomalies such that costs or emis-
sions decrease in one region while
they increase in all others.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page C-VIII-22
CHANGE IN ANNUALIZED COSTS PER TON REMOVED
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 90 PERCENT REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDIT;
1.0 LBS. S02/MMBTU CEILING
WET SCRUBBING
($/ton)
1990 1995
EAST 928.9 1,320.9
CENTRAL 1,549.5 1,488.7
WEST 1,085.4 985.1
TOTAL 1,269.4 1,322.3
Change in costs between current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds)
and ANSPS divided by change in emissions.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
c
Q.
x'
O
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
THE FINAL SET OF ANALYSES OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
APPENDIX D
BRIEF SUMMARY OF 2010 FORECASTS
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
1990, 1995, and 2010 D-la-lc
Base Case Dry Scrubbing
0.55 Ibs. S02/MMBtu Emission Limitation Dry Scrubbing
90% Removal With Washing Credits; 0.55 Ibs. Ceiling
Dry Scrubbing
2010 D-2a-2b
Base Case, Lower Nuclear Capacity
0.55 Ibs. SO2/MMBtu Emission Limitation Lower Nuclear
Capacity
90% Removal with Washing Credits; 0.55 Ibs. Ceiling
Lower Nuclear Capacity
SO0
^ Scrubber Cost Estimates
Current NSPS, 1.2 Ibs. S02/MMBtu D-3
0.55 Ibs. Annual Emission Limitation D-4
90% Removal With Washing Credits; 0.55 Ceiling D-5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SIMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Dry Scrubbing
DRAFT
May 30, 1973
Page D-la
Base Case
1995
0.55 Ibs. SO /MMBtu
Emission Limitation
90S Removal With Washing Credit
0.55 Ibs. SO,/MMBtu Ceiling
1990 ; f995 2010
o
•n
o
o
3D
•o
O
30
National SO; Emissions
(106 Tons/Year)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSFS
Total
Present Value of National S02
Emissions (10& Tons)
Regional SO2 Emissions
(106 Tons/Year)
East
Boat North Central
Baat South Central
Heat Horth Central
Heat South Central
Heat
Total
National SO2 Emissions Rate
Ubs./lO* Btu)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
HSPS
WSPS
Total
Regional Sf>2 Emissions Kate
-------
SIK«ARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Dry Scrubbing
3PAFT
:iay 30. .979
Faqe D-^i
Base Case
Change in Annualized Cose
Aosoiute (SlO'/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Anrrualized Costs ($10^)
Change in Annual!ted Cost Per
Ton Removed (S/Ton)
Case Year Basis
1*90
1993
2010
0.55 Ibs. 50,,/MMBtu Emission Limitation
1990
1.33
1.13
1995
3.0i
1.7}
2010
8.00
17.32
927.9
30.92
895.2
60.60
807.5
o
•n
o
o
3>
•o
o
3)
Coal Production
(106 Tons/Year)
Appal achia 434.5
Midwest 329.9
Northern Great Plains 477.2
West 203.3
Total 1,445.6
Western Coal Consumed in East
(106 Tons/Year) 93.7
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity (GW) 410.4
Cosnlative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($10?) 500.0
Scrubber Capacity (GW)
Existing 5.7
Retrofit 49.0
tfSPS 34.7
ABSPS 33.8
Full
Partial (X Removal)
East
Bast North Central
East South Central
West Rorth Central
West South Central
West
Total R372
Sludge Generated
(ID6 Tons/Year) 19.3
Energy Penalty
(10»5 Btu/Year)
524.4
391.0
629.7
221.6
1,766.6
98.5
553.6
770.3
707.9
468.9
921.9
295.4
2,394.1
122.7
882.2
1,793.2
425.3
364.9
433.2
207.3
1,430.6
65.4
401.6
500.3
55.8 (61
26.1
2.4
8.8
9.2
9.2
1)
5.7
49.7
34.3
114.4
0.2
114.2 (63.6)
62.5
9.2
24.5
-
9.2
8.8
2547T
-
-
34.5
448.0
18.9
429.1 (63.6)
208.1
79.3
65.6
10.1
36.7
29.3
482.5
5.7
49.4
32.4
123.2
39.8
83.4 (61
22.9
9.1
7.2
7.4
15.1
19.5
210.7
26.5
62.6
25.6
0.11
484.5
444.5
589.2
226.5
1,744.7
73.4
537.1
752.8
679.6
540.6
909.9
290.9
2,421.1
80.1
882.3
1,825.6
1)
5.7
49.7
34.9
258.75
73.7
185.0 (59.0)
52.0
16.1
12.4
17.0
48.4
37.9
35571
_
_
34.5
801.8
297.4
5O4.4 (60.5)
134.6
82.8
25.8
79.2
104.2
77.3
37.2
0.17
91 .0
0.38
-------
SUGARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Dry Scrubbing (Continued)
DJkA
•'.ay
1*574
90Z Removal With Washing Credit,
0.55 Ibs. SO /MHBtu Ceiling
T995
1990
2010
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($109/Year) 2.32
Percentage 1 . 72
Change in Present Value of
A/inualized Costs ($109) 26.26
4. 70
2.71
14. 10
103.96
o
T|
o
o
33
s
•33
m
O
Change in Annualized Cost Per
Tons Removed ($/Ton)
Case Year Basis 1,140.4
Coal Production
(106 Tona/Year)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed la East
(106 Tons/Year) 60.8
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity (Of)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (Of)
Existing
Retrofit
HSPS
AHSPS
Full
Partial (2 Removal)
East
East North Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
Weat
Total
Sludge Generated
(106 Tons/Year)
Energy Penalty
(1015 Btu/Year
389.9
500.3
5.7
44.6
32.7
110.8
110.
193.8
34.5
0.33
1,227.0
73.2
520.1
776.1
5.7
44.2
33.3
241.0
241.0
324.1
54.8
0.55
1,222.1
402.2
389.0
457.1
183.7
1,432.0
468.0
468.4
646.4
181.5
1,764.1
663.1
659.2
874.4
251.4
2,448.6
49.6
879.8
1,875.1
34.5
798.6
798.6
833.1
135.0
1.07
-------
SUMMARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN 2010
LOWER NUCLEAR CAPACITY
0.55 Ibs. 30^/MMBtu 9051 Removal With Washing Credits
Base Case Emission Limitation and 0.55 Ibs. SO,/MMBtu Ceiling
Nationa". 5C>2 Emissions
(10* Tons/Year;
Oil.'Gas
Coai
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Present Value of National S02
Emissions (106 Tons)
0.20
27.78
0.20
14.00
0.
11,
22
20
2.41
8.79
TT75T
o
O
O
30
•o
O
3J
Regional SO2 Emissions
(106 Tons/Year)
East 8.89
East North Central 4.53
East South Central 3.85
West North Central 3.44
West South Central 4.25
West 3.01
Total 17798"
Rational S02 Bnissions Rate
Ubs./lO* Btu)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
HSPS
AHSPS
Total
Regional SO2 Emissions Rate
(lbs./106 Btu)
Bast Horth Central
East South Central
West Horth Central
West South Central
West
Total
Oil/Gas Consuaption
(1015 Btu/Year)
Poverplants 1.550
Coal Transportation 0.644
Total 2.194
1.175
1.163
1.171
1.161
1.158
0.819
4.17
2.36
1.91
1.64
2.32
1.60
17720
0.260
1.144
1.110
1.146
1.116
0.260
0.569
1.123
0.522
0.560
0.556
0.581
0.572
0.597
0.626
0.435
0.560
1.556
0.647
J.263
3.56
2.65
1.85
1.14
1.64
0.71
TTTil
0.260
0.449
1.110
0.390
"0.442
0.469
0.569
0.550
0.407
0.429
0.186
0.442
1.675
0.631
m
o
-------
SUMIARY OF FORECASTED EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS IN 2010
LOWER KUCLEAR CAPACITY
.'•'.ay 20. I'll-;
page D-2b
Base Case
0.55 Ibs. SO /MMBtu
Emission Limitation
90Z ReQDvil With Washing Credits
and 0.55 Ibs. SO /HMBtu Ceiling
o
o
o
3D
TJ
O
•a
m
o
Change in Annuaiized Cose
Absolute ($109/Year)
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Anaualized Costs ($10')
Change in Annual!zed Cost Per
Ton Removed ($/Ton)
Case Year Basis
Coal Production
(JO6 Tons /Tear)
Appalachia
Midwest
northern Great Plains
Heat
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(106 Tons /Year)
Coal-Fired Generation
Capacity (CH)
emulative Utility Capital
Expend icurea ($109)
Scrubber Capacity (GW)
existing
Retrofit
HSTS
AHSPS
roll
Partial (I Reaoval)
But
East North Central
East South Central
Heat Horth Central
Best South Central
Heat
Total
Sludge Generated
Tons /Tear)
Energy Penalty
(1013 BtoAiear
146.6
10.22
74.39
742.0
98.9
89.14
1,063.3
131.4
0.61
18.96
130.97
1,143.3
859.3
581.2
1,207.0
341.8
2,989.4
845.3
657.8
1,180.3
338.5
3,022.0
827.8
793.0
1,125.0
303.9
3,044.7
74.7
1,
1,
106.7
722.7
34.5
591.0
25.9
565.1 (63.6)
233.2
110.6
105.5
26.8
54.5
34.5
1,106.2 1,099.3
1,765.9
34.5 33.9
1,025.8 1,018.2
*00.6 1,018.2
625.2 (61.5)
193.0
83.5
28.8
103.3
106.3
110.4
1.47
-------
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
CURRENT NSPS, 1.2 LBS S02/MMBTU
DRY SCRUBBING
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page D-3
Scenario Specifications
A. Annual S02 Emission Limitation
. (lbs./106 Btu)
B. Percent Annual S02 Removed
C. Percent of Gas Treated
D. Daily SO2 Removed
Mbs./106 etu)
E. Annual S02 Removed
(lbs./106 etu)
50^/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.66
1.2
28
31
.46
3.33
1.2
64
71
2.2
5.0
1.2
76
84
3.8
6.6
1.2
82
91
5.4
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
46.00
0.95
46.95
0.85
0.15
0.15
78.00
2.75
80.75
1.55
1.95
1.95
88.95 100.95
4.25 4.85
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page D-4
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
0.55 LBS S02/MMBTU ANNUAL EMISSION LIMITATION
DRY SCRUBBING
S00/10 Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Scenario Specifications
Annual. SC>2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily SO 2 Removed
(lbs./106 Btu)
Annual SO2 Removed
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
0.8
0.40
50
100
0.40
1.2
0.54
55
100
0.66
1.66
0.54
67
100
1.12
3.33
0.54
84
93
2.79
5.0
0.54
89
99
4.46
6.6
-
-
-
-
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
A. Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
B. O&M (Mills/KWH)
C. Capacity Penalty (%)
D. Energy Penalty (%)
32.13
1.27
0.50
_
32.13
1.27
0.50
_
38.48
1.69
0.50
_
96.10
3.65
99.75
2.04
2.60
3.75
108.10
5.20
113.30
2.50
2.65
4.32
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
S02 SCRUBBER COST ESTIMATES
90% REMOVAL WITH WASHING CREDITS;
0.55 LBS S02/MMBTU CEILING
DRY SCRUBBING
DRAFT
May 30, 1979
Page D-5
Btu (Long-Term Average)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
A.
B.
C.
D.
Scenario Specifications
Annual SO2 Emission Limitation
(lbs./106 Btu)
Percent Annual SO2 Removed
Percent of Gas Treated
Daily S02 Removed
Ubs./I06 Btu)
Annual SO2 Removed
(Ibs./I06 Btu)
Scenario Cost (1978 $'s)
Capital ($/KW)
1. Scrubber
2. Sludge Pond
3. Total
O&M (Mills/KWH)
Capacity Penalty (%)
Energy Penalty (%)
0.8
0.08
90
100
0.99
0.72
105.00
2.00
107.00
1.75
2.75
4.35
1.2
0.12
90
100
1.48
1.08
105.60
2.40
108.00
1.85
2.75
4.35
1.66
0.17
90
100
2.05
1.50
106.10
2.75
108.85
1.92
2.75
4.35
3.33
0.39
84
98
4.02
2.94
106.60
3.90
110.50
2.40
2.68
4.30
5.0
0.54
89
-
_
-
108.10
5.20
113.30
2.50
2.65
4.32
6.6
_
_
_
_
-
_
_
-
-
-
-
Source: EPA, for a new 500 MW powerplant.
ICF
INCORPORATED
------- |