FURTHER ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE
NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
FOR NEW COALFIRED POWER PLANTS
Preliminary Draft
September, 1978
Submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency
and the
Department of Energy
ICF INCORPORATED 1850 K Street. Northwest.
Suite 950. Washington. D, C. 20006
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FURTHER ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW
SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR
NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
Preliminary Draft
September, 1978
Submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency and
Department of Energy
ICF
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PREFACE
This preliminary draft report was prepared for the Environmental
Protection Agency and the Department of Energy. It is being distributed
for purposes of review and comment. Constructive comments are welcomed.
Further work is being conducted; refinements and additional analyses
are underway. A subsequent report will be issued which will present the
results of the additional analyses.
The assumptions, findings, conclusions, judgments, and views expressed
herein are those of ICF Incorporated and should not be interpreted as
necessarily representing the official policies of the U.S. government.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction - Alternative New Source Performance Standards 1
EPA Specified ANSPS 3
DOE Specified ANSPS 10
DOE Specified Sensitivity Analyses 14
Uncertainties 17
Appendix A: Summary Documentation
Appendix B: Long Range Forecasts - 1985, 1990, 1995
Scenarios
B-1 Current Standard of 1.2 Lbs. SO /MMBtu
B-2 Alternative Standard of 0.2 Lbs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
B-3 Alternative Standard of 0.2 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
Without Exemptions
B-4 Alternative Standard of 0.5 Lbs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
B-5 Alternative Standard of 0.5 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
Without Exemptions
B-6 Alternative Standard of 0.67 Lbs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
B-7 Alternative Standard of 0.8 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
Tables
B.1 Coal Consumption, by Sector
B.2 Annual SO Emissions
B.3 Annual Particulate Emissions
B.4 Annual NO Emissions
j^
B.5 Utility Fuel Consumption
B.6 Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
B.7 Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity
(B-2 through B-7 only)
B.8 Reduction in SO Emissions Relative to Current Standard
(B-2 through B-7 only)
B.9 Average Cost Per Ton of SO2 Removal (B-2 through B-7 only)
B.10 Aggregated Regional Coal Production
B.11 Regional Coal Production
B.12 Supply Prices
B.13 Utility Coal Consumption
B.14 Delivered Coal Prices to Electric Utilities
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TABLE OF CONTENTS - cont'd.
B.15 Use of Western Coal
B.16 Western Coal Consumed in East
B.17 Generation Capacity (And Average Capacity Factor)
B.18 Utility Capital Costs
B.19 Scrubber Capacity and Percent of S0_ Removed (on Annual Basis)
Appendix C: Long Range Forecasts - 1985, 1990, 1995
Scenarios
C-1 Current Standard of 1.2 Lbs. SO /MMBtu
C-2 Alternative Standard of 0.2 Lbs. S02/MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
C-3 Alternative Standard of 0.2 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
Without Exemptions
C-4 Alternative Standard of 0.5 Lbs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
C-5 Alternative Standard of 0.5 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
Without Exemptions
C-6 Alternative Standard of 0.67 Lbs. SO2/MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
C-7 Alternative Standard of 0.8 Ibs. SO /MMBtu Floor,
With Exemptions
Tables
C.1 Coal Consumption, by Sector
C.2 Annual SO. Emissions
C.3 Annual Particulate Emissions
C.4 Annual NO Emissions
C.5 Utility Fuel Consumption
C.6 Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
C.7 Change in Incremental Annualized Cost of Electricity
C.8 Reduction in SO Emissions Relative to Current Standard
C.9 Average Cost Per Ton of SO Removal
C.10 Aggregated Regional Coal Production
C. 11 Regional Coal Production
C.12 Supply Prices
C.13 Utility Coal Consumption
C.14 Delivered Coal Prices to Electric Utilities
C.15 Use of Western Coal
C.16 Western Coal Consumed in East
C.17 Generation Capacity (And Average Capacity Factor)
C.18 Utility Capital Costs
C.19 Scrubber Capacity and Percent of SO Removed (on Annual Basis)
C.20 SO Emissions Per Quad of Coal Consumed
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FURTHER ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE NEW
SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR
NEW COAL-FIRED POWERPLANTS
This draft report was prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) and the Department of Energy (DOE). It summarizes the findings of
further analysis ICF has conducted of alternative new source performance
standards for new coal-fired powerplants. These analyses were conducted
since April, 1978. .Those analyses conducted prior to April were presented in
a separate report. Pending review and comments on this document, a final
and more detailed report will be prepared.
Alternative New Source Performance Standards
EPA specified that five alternative new source performance standards
(ANSPS) for sulfur dioxide be analyzed:
1.2 pounds (the current new source performance standard)
0.2 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
0.2 floor, 1.2 ceiling without exemptions
0.5 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
0.5 floor, 1.2 ceiling without exemptions.
DOE specified that two additional ANSPS be analyzed.
0.67 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
0.80 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
Further, DOE specified that some sensitivity analyses be run with respect
to such key scenario input parameters as electricity growth rates and oil
prices.
For all cases except the current NSPS, it was specified that the ANSPS
would be:
a) 85 percent sulfur removal on a 24-hour average with
three excursions to 75 percent removal per month
allowed,
b) 0.03 pounds of TSP per million btus,
c) 0.6 pounds NO per million btus for bituminous
plants, 0.5 for subbituminous and 0.8 for lignite,
d) the specified alternative floor and ceiling in pounds
of sulfur dioxide per million btus.
1/ Effects of Alternative New Source Performance Standards for Coal-Fired
Electric Utility Boilers on the Coal Markets and on Utility Capacity
Expansion Plans, September, 1978.
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Further, it was specified that the floor would be enforced on a 24-hour
average with no violations allowed and the ceiling would be enforced on a
24-hour average with no violations allowed in the "without exemptions" case
and three violations per month allowed in the "with exemptions" case.
Finally, it was specified that the current federal NSPS (as well as
State Implementation Plan emission limitations for existing plants and state
standards for new plants, which are more stringent than the federal NSPS)
would be assumed to be enforced on an annual average basis.
Approach
ICF's Coal and Electric Utilities Model was used to analyze these
alternatives. A base case forecast was made under the current NSPS for 1985,
1990, and 1995. Then separate forecasts for each of the alternative ANSPS
were made. The effect of the alternative ANSPS was measured as the difference
between the base case forecast and the ANSPS forecasts.
Appendix A documents the structure and input data of this model, the
way the ANSPS was modelled, and the scenario specifications developed by EPA
and DOE, in consultation with other federal agencies such as the Council of
Economic Advisors.
Background
As noted above, this is the second set of ANSPS forecasts made and
reported by ICF for EPA and DOE. Both EPA and DOE wanted to reanalyze these
issues because a) better estimates of full and partial scrubbing costs were
available, b) the ICF model had been refined over the six months since the
first set of forecasts were run, c) more up-to-date scenario specifications
could be employed, and d) explicit and rigorous attention could be paid to
averaging periods and confidence levels.
In ICF's judgment, this set of forecasts should be given substantially
more credibility than the previous forecasts. The model has been substan-
tially improved in interim, particularly with respect to measures such as
western coal consumed in the East. The scenario specifications (with the
possible exception of oil prices) would be considered (we believe) by most
to be improved. The treatment of averaging periods and confidence levels
with respect to scrubber costs, allowable coal-types, and emissions was
not rigorous in the first set of analysis and has been substantially
improved in this set.
Report Organization
This draft report summarizes the findings of the analyses to date. The
first section discusses the five ANSPS specified by EPA. The second compares
these to the two additional ANSPS specified by DOE. The third presents the
sensitivity analyes requested by DOE, with EPA's concurrence.
In each of these sections, the discussion focuses on a brief set of
summary tables. Appendix B contains lengthy set of more detailed tables
summarizing each of the ANSPS for 1985, 1990, and 1995. Appendix C contains
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the same set of tables comparing the ANSPS for 1990. The sensitivity
analyses are being presented only in brief summary form. As mentioned
above. Appendix A contains the documentation for the forecasts presented
herein.
EPA SPECIFIED ANSPS
EPA requested that five ANSPS standards be assessed. The effects of
these ANSPS for 1985, 1990 and 1995 are summarized in Tables 1-A through
1-C respectively.
These effects are discussed below for 1990 (see Table 1-B) since 1985 is
too soon for the ANSPS to have a substantial affect (i.e., only plants after
1982 were effected). Further, 1995 is far enough in the future to lose credi-
bility. Beyond 1990 the uncertainties associated with the scenario specifi-
cations become quite large. New technologies can be introduced by then and
environmental standards may be changed by then.
Sulfur Emissions
Effect of Alternative Floors. Under the 0.2 floor, partial scrubbing is
not ,i viable option, according to the PEDCo data (see Appendix A). Under the
O.IS floor, partial scrubbing of low sulfur coals results in scrubbing cost
savi.ngs relative to full scrubbing. Hence, under the 0.5 floor, partial
scrubbing is forecast to occur on plants subject to ANSPS in certain regions.
Both the 0.2 and 0.5 floor cases (with exemptions) are forecast to reduce
annual emissions of sulfur dioxide in 1990 by about 2.5 million tons or about
12 percent. This reduction would occur in each of the four large regions of
the country. See Table 1-B.
In our judgment, the differences in emissions between the .2 and .5
floor cases (with and without exemptions) are well within the range of error
of the model (in 1985, 1990 and 1995), and the two sets of emissions fore-
casts should be considered essentially equivalent.
There are two reasons that total emissions do not increase between the
0.2 floor and 0.5 floor forecast. The first is that the more stringent
standard (i.e., 0.2) makes plants subject to the ANSPS more expensive and
I ionce other plants would be utilized more heavily. These other plants
include existing oil and coal plants with annual emissions rates around 1.0
ix>und of sulfur dioxide per million btu whereas the ANSPS have a maximum
annual emission rate of 0.5 pounds. Hence, any increase in ANSPS emissions
(going from 0.2 to 0.5) is offset by a reduction in emissions from oil plants
and from existing and NSPS coal plants.
The second reason that total emissions do not increase is because
partial scrubbing units with an annual emissions rate of 0.32 pounds per
million btu's replace full scrubbing units with an annual emissions rate of
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0.50 pounds.-/ Hence, the partial scrubbing units which burn very low
sulfur coal in order to comply with a 0.5 pound floor (24-hour average, no
violations per year) actually have lower emissions than full scrubbing units
burning high sulfur coal.
Although we judge that the difference in national emissions between the
0.2 and 0.5 floor cases is small enough to be considered essentially equivalent,
it is also our judgment that the direction of some of the regional differ-
ences are credible and important.
Emissions in the East do not change significantly between the alter-
native floors because the price of low sulfur coal is very high in the East
and hence little partial scrubbing is forecast to occur. The price differ-
ential between low and high sulfur coal more than offsets the scrubber cost
savings of partial scrubbing low sulfur coal rather than full scrubbing high
sulfur coal.
Emissions in the Midwest and West South Central are forecast to go down
in moving from the 0.2 floor to the 0.5 floor because partial scrubbing
units with an emissions rate of 0.32 are substituting for a) full scrubbing
units on high sulfur coal with an emissions rate of 0.5 and b) existing oil
and coal plants with an emissions rate of about one pound.
Emissions in the rest of the West increase in moving from 0.2 to 0.5
because the locally available coal is not high sulfur so that partial scrub-
bing of low sulfur coal with an emissions rate of 0.32 is generally substitu-
ting for full scrubbing medium sulfur coal with an emissions rate of less
than 0.32. Further, existing coal capacity is so small in the West that loads
cannot be shifted from new to existing coal plants. Finally, the economics
of coal versus oil generation in the West is such that the load on existing
oil plants is unaffected by the cost savings of partial scrubbing.
In summary, the forecasts indicate the effect of partial scrubbing
(i.e., 0.5 pound floor) in 1990 is to a) reduce emissions in the Midwest and
West South Central, b) increase emissions in the rest of the West, and c) have
no effect on emissions in the East. By 1995, the reductions in the Midwest and
west South Central become trivial, whereas emissions in the rest of the West
remain higher.
Effect of Alternative Ceilings. The effect of allowing three exemptions
per month to the ceiling is to enable plants subject to the ANSPS to burn all
but the highest sulfur coals. The effect of not allowing exemptions is to pro-
V The floors (i.e., 0.2 and .05) were specified on a 24-hour average basis,
never to be exceeded. Hence, when variability of sulfur in coal is con-
sidered, it turns out that the average annual emissions rate (per million
btu's) must be substantially less than the maximum daily rate which is the
floor. On the other hand, the annual emissions rate for full scrubbing high
sulfur coal is 90 percent removal on an annual basis (85 percent on a daily
basis) on high sulfur coal where the maximum allowable in the "with exemp-
tions" cases is about 2.5 pounds of sulfur or 5.0 pounds of sulfur dioxide.
See Appendix A for calculations of emissions rates.
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hibit all high sulfur coals (i.e., greater than 1.67 pounds of sulfur per mil-
lion btus) and to permit only medium and low sulfur coals. (See discussion of
alternative ceilings in Appendix A.)
The effect of not permitting exemptions is forecast to increase emissions
on a national basis in 1990, although again the magnitude of the difference
is so small that the two estimates should be considered essentially equivalent.
The maximum emissions rate (i.e., full scrubbing the highest sulfur coal
permitted) for ANSPS plants is reduced from 0.5 pounds under "with exemptions
to 0.33 pounds "without exemptions." However, the cost increases associated
with prohibiting all high sulfur coals result in loads being shifted from
ANSPS plants to a) existing oil plants, b) existing coal plants, and c) new
plants subject to the NSPS. Hence, emissions reductions from ANSPS plants
are offset by emission increases from other plants.
In each of the four large regions, the emissions reductions from ANSPS
plants are approximately offset by emissions increases, except in the Midwest
where the increases more than offset the reductions.
By 1995, however, the reductions in ANSPS emissions are forecast to more
than offset the increases in emissions from other plants. Hence, the "without
exemptions" cases are forecast to have lower emissions than the "with exemp-
tions" cases by 1995.
Utility Oil Consumption
The effect of increasing the floor and/or allowing exemptions is to
reduce the costs with ANSPS, and vice versa. Higher compliance costs make
the option of burning more oil rather than building a new coal plant more
economically attractive. Hence, more oil is forecast to be consumed under
the more stringent standards. The increased oil consumption results from
increasing loads on existing oil steam plants and building additional oil-
fired combustion turbines. (The forecasted oil consumption increases would
likely have been higher if it had been assumed that DOE would prohibit
construction of new oil-fired combined-cycle units.) Hence, more stringent
standards result in higher compliance costs which result in increased oil
consumption and vice versa.
In 1990, utility oil consumption is forecast to be about 2.6 quadril-
lion btus (quads) or about 1.3 million barrels per day. This is a substan-
tial reduction from 1975 consumption of about 6.2 quads. This reduction
results from the assumed oil price increase to $20 per barrel in 1990 and
$28 in 1995 (both in 1975 dollars).
Effect of Alternative Floors. The effect of the 0.2 floor (with exemp-
t-ion:;) is forecast to increase utility oil consumption from the current NSPS
cA.sf in 19^0 by 0.7 quads or about 350 thousand barrels per day. This
increase results from the increased costs of complying with a more stringent
standard.
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The effect of the 0.5 floor (with exemptions) is forecast to increase
consumption by 0.4 quads or about 200 thousand barrels per day in 1990. This
increase is 0.3 quads less than the 0.2 floor (with exemptions). This smaller
increase results from the reduced compliance costs of partial scrubbing.
By 1995, because of the assumed high oil price (i.e., $28 per barrel) the
costs of burning oil are so high that ANSPS compliance costs are forecast to
have no differential effect on utility oil consumption. Both the 0.2 and 0.5
floor is forecast to increase utility oil consumption by 0.2 quads in 1995.
Effect of Alternative Ceilings. The effect of not allowing exemptions
is to increase the costs of compliance because the least expensive coals
(high sulfur coals) would not be permitted and only more expensive medium and
low sulfur coals would be allowed.
Hence, the effect of 0.2 floor without exemptions is a 0.1 quad further
increase in utility oil consumption over the 0.2 floor with exemptions.
However, the forecast indicates no change in utility oil consumption for
the 0.5 floor in 1990 or for either floor in 1995.
Costs of ANSPS
The ICF model forecasts the incremental costs of generating and distribu-
ting electricity. Incremental means the costs spent after 1975. Qnbedded
costs (i.e., capital costs spent prior to 1976) are not included in the costs
forecast by the model. These embedded costs are included in the electricity
rates consumers pay. They have not been included (yet) in the ICF model
because they would remain constant across different forecasts in any one year
and hence, would not effect calculations in the change in costs. It is the
change in costs that are reported herein.
Further, the forecast costs are levelized, in that they are calculated
to remain constant (in real terms) over the life of a generating unit. Actual
regulated electricity rates are not levelized; rather the effect of capital
costs (e.g., the costs of scrubbers) on electricity rates is greater in the
early years than the late years. Levelized costs are meaningfully compared
across scenarios and time because they represent the present value of future
costs. (The difference between the levelized costs forecast by the model and
the present value of future costs is always a single multiplicative factor,
which is the sum of discount rates over the discount period). But unlevelized
costs are more representative of real-world electricity rates. Neither
measure is right or wrong. What is important is that the measure be properly
defined and interpreted. Levelized costs are reported herein.
The procedure for translating these levelized costs into present values
is described in Appendix A, as is the procedure for estimating the percentage
change in electricity rates.
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Effect of Alternative Floors. The forecasted effect of both the 0.2
and 0.5 floor is to increase annualized costs by $2.3 and $2.0 billion per
year respectively in 1990. The present value of these cost increases is
$26.0 billion for the 0.2 pound floor and $23.2 billion for the 0.5 pound
floor (both with exemptions). The absolute and relative magnitude of these
costs are forecast to be greater in 1995.
The cost effects associated with the 0.5 floor are lower than for the
0.2 floor, because the 0.5 floor would permit cost-saving partial scrubbing.
These costs correspond to national average rate increases between 1.5
and 2.0 percent. However, in the high impact region, the West South Central,
the percentage rate increases range from 5.18 percent for 0.2 floor (with
exemptions) to 4.76 percent for 0.5 floor (with exemptions). See Table C.7
of Appendix C.
Effect of Alternative Ceilings. Similarly, the forecasted effect of no
exemptions is to increase costs, by an additional $0.4 and $0.5 billion per
year in 1990 for the 0.2 and 0.5 pound floors respectively. Similarly, the
present value of these costs increases by $5. 1 and $4.6 billion respectively.
Further, the forecasted increase in costs is greater in 1995.
These increases result from prohibiting the use of high sulfur coal in
ANSPS plants.
The largest cost increases as a result of no exemptions occur in the
East and Midwest because high sulfur coal, which is locally available and the
coal with the lowest delivered price, is prohibited. Low or medium sulfur
coal is generally both locally available and least costly in the West South
Central and the rest of the West. Hence, the high sulfur coal prohibition
makes less difference in these regions. See Table C.7 of Appendix C.
Coal Production
The effect of the ANSPS on national coal production in 1990 is fore-
cast to be relatively small. National production forecasts range from a
high of 1,524.6 million tons per year in 1990 under the current NSPS to a
low of 1,498.7 under the 0.2 floor case without exemptions. The total dif-
ference between the high and the low is about 25 million tons, or less than
one percent.
This small difference is due primarily to reduced coal consumption
offsetting the increased oil consumption discussed above. The rest of
this difference is due to different heat contents of coals as regional
production patterns shift, since average heat contents may vary by region
(discussed below).
Regional production patterns are forecast to change more than national
production, but the changes are still not substantial.
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Effect of Alternative Floors. The effect of the ANSPS is to reduce the
value of low sulfur coals, since powerplants could no longer avoid scrubbing
by burning low sulfur coal.
Hence, under the 0.2 floor (with exemptions) which provides for no
partial scrubbing, production of low sulfur coal in Central Appalachian and
the Northern Great Plains is forecast to drop as production of high sulfur
coal in Northern Appalachia and the Midwest is forecast to increase. Produc-
tion in the West is forecast to remain relatively constant. Correspondingly,
less western low sulfur coal is shipped east of the Mississippi River.
Under the 0.5 pound floor (with exemptions), partial scrubbing is per-
mitted, increasing the value of low sulfur coal somewhat. Hence, high sulfur
coal production in Northern Appalachia and the Midwest increases by less, and
low-sulfur production in Central Appalachia, the Northern Great Plains, and
the West decreases by a smaller amount.
Interestingly, western low sulfur coal consumed in the East is forecast
in 1990 to be less in tons under 0.5 than 0.2, by a very small amount. This
is probably because higher heat content Rocky Mountains bituminous coals are
being substituted for lower heat content subbituminous coals from the North-
ern Great Plains. In 1995, the measure is up slightly as would be expected.
Effect of Alternative Ceilings. The effect of not permitting exemptions
is forecast to offset the effects on regional coal production of requiring
scrubbers on all new plants. As discused above, the effect of the 0.2 and
0.5 floor cases (with exemptions) is to increase high sulfur production at
the expense of low sulfur production. The effect of no exemptions is to
stimulate low and medium sulfur production at the expense of high sulfur
production, because high sulfur coal would not be burned in ANSPS plants.
Hence, regional production under the without exemptions cases is very
similar to regional production under the current NSPS case.
Coal-Fired capacity
As discussed above, the more stringent the ANSPS, the higher the compli-
ance costs, and the more economic oil consumption becomes. Coal-fired
capacity is the reflection of oil consumption. The more oil consumption is
increased, the less new coal-fired capacity would be built, because the
generation would be provided by oil plants rather than coal plants. Existing
oil steam plants would be loaded more heavily and combustion turbines would
be built to provide peaking capacity that would otherwise be provided by
existing oil steam units.
Utility Capital Requirements
Although the more stringent ANSPS require higher costs for scrubbers,
total utility capital requirements are forecast to be least under the most
stringent ANSPS. This is because the increased scrubber costs are more than
offset by reduced generating unit costs, as low capital cost (and high fuel
cost) turbines are substituted for high capital cost coal plants. See Table
C.18 of Appendix C.
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Average Cost Per Ton of Sulfur Dioxide Removed
This measure is computed by dividing the change in national annualized
costs from the current NSPS by the change in national sulfur dioxide emissions.
The forecasts indicate that the average cost per ton removed is lower
for the 0.5 floor case than the 0.2 floor case. This is because the increase
in costs in going from 0.5 to 0.2 is not offset by a proportional decrease in
emissions.
Similarly, the average costs increase in moving from with exemptions
to without exemptions. This is, of course, because in 1990 emissions increase
(rather than decrease) while costs increase as well.
Scrubber Capacity
Total scrubber capacity is forecast to be nearly 100 GW greater in 1990
under the ANSPS than under the current NSPS. This is because all new power-
plants after about 1982 would require scrubbers and would not be permitted to
burn low sulfur coal without a scrubber.
Total scrubber capacity in 1990 is forecast to be higher under the 0.5
floor than the 0.2 floor, because more coal-fired capacity would be built,
as discussed above.
Under the current NSPS, essentially all the scrubber capacity on plants
that would be subject to ANSPS is forecast to be partial scrubbing. Under
the 0.2 floor, all would be full scrubbing by regulation. Under the 0.5
floor, about one-third (39 GW) is forecast to be partial scrubbing.
Over half the partial scrubbing capacity under the 0.5 pound floor
is forecast to be in the West South Central. The other half is forecast to
be split about evenly between the West and Midwest. Essentially, no partial
scrubbing is forecast to occur in the East.
Summary Overview
The effect of a lower floor is forecast to be:
to increase emissions in the West
to reduce (or leave unchanged) emissions in the rest
of the country
to increase oil consumption in 1990 (not in 1995 due
to tin; assumed high oil price)
to increase utility costs
to shift regional coal production from West to Midwest
(and from low sulfur coal to high sulfur coal)
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increase the average cost per ton removed
reduce partial scrubbing.
The effect of not allowing exemptions to the ceiling is forecast to be:
to increase emissions slightly in 1990
to reduce emissions slightly in 1995
to increase oil consumption in 1990
to increase utility costs
to shift regional coal production from Midwest to West
to increase the average cost per ton removed.
DOE SPECIFIED ANSPS
DOE requested that two additional ANSPS be assumed:
0.67 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
0.80 floor, 1.2 ceiling with exemptions
These were modelled in the same manner as the other ANSPS. All other ANSPS
and scenario specifications were the same as the EPA runs. The forecasted
effects are summarized on Tables 2-A through 2-C and discussed below.
Sulfur Emissions
Forecasted national sulfur emissions are higher under both the 0.67 and
0.80 floors although the difference in 1990 between the 0.2 case and the 0.67
case is insignificant.
The partially scrubbed units have an annual emissions rate of 0.42-0.44
and 0.51-0.54 for the 0.67 and 0.80 floors respectively, versus 0.32 for the
0.5 pound floor. Hence, emissions from the partially scrubbed units are up
from the 0.5 pound floor case.
Further, as indicated under "Scrubber Capacity" at the bottom of Table
2-B, the amount of partially scrubbed capacity is increased. This is because
there are increased cost savings from partial scrubbing to a higher floor.
This increased partial scrubbing capacity is not forecast to displace signifi-
cantly existing oil or coal capacity or NSPS coal capacity relative to the
0.5 pound floor case. Hence, it is displacing full scrubbing capacity. In
the East and Midwest, this full scrubbing capacity would have an annual
emissions rate of about 0.5. In the West South Central to West, most of the
full scrubbing capacity would have an annual emissions rate of 0.16 to 0.33.
Hence, partial scrubbing at 0.80 (with an annual emissions rate of over 0.5
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pounds) would always increase ANSPS emissions, whereas partial scrubbing at
0.67 (with an annual emissions rate less than 0.5) would tend to reduce
emissions slightly in the East and Midwest and increase emissions slightly in
the West and West South Central.
These changes in emissions and emissions rates by plant-type and by
region are shown on Table C.20 of Appendix C. In reviewing this table, note
how it can be misleading to focus on only ANSPS emissions. Total emissions
can go up while ANSPS emissions go down and vice versa. This is because
emissions from other plants are influenced by the ANSPS, through the effect
of the ANSPS on compliance costs and on how much each unit will be operated.
For example, if the costs of an ANSPS unit are increased, the utility will
attempt to build less ANSPS capacity and/or not operate the ANSPS capacity
as much. This means non-ANSPS capacity would be operated more. If the
annual emissions rate of this non-ANSPS capacity is higher than that of the
ANSPS capacity, emissions will thereby increase.
Further, note how focusing on total emissions can be misleading, because
sometimes emissions go up because more coal is consumed rather than because
the emissions rate per unit coal consumed goes up. This could lead to
policies that discourage coal consumption (and simultaneously encourage oil
consumption) in order to reduce emissions. Hence, the aggregate emissions
rate estimates (shown on Table C.20 of Appendix C) are probably the best
single number to use in evaluating the effect on emissions of ANSPS.
Utility Oil Consumption
Even though the 0.67 and 0.80 floor cases reduce the compliance costs,
no significantly reduced oil consumption is forecasted.
The effects of compliance costs always show up in either oil consump-
tion and/or costs. In this case they show up in costs (discussed below).
Costs of ANSPS
The cost savings in 1990 of the 0.67 floor case are $0.5 billion per
year relative to the 0.5 floor case and $0.8 billion per year relative to the
0.2 floor case. The present value savings in 1990 are $5.8 billion and $8.6
billion relative to the 0.5 and 0.2 floors respectively. By 1995, the cost
savings are forecast to be substantially higher.
The cost savings of the 0.8 floor case relative to the 0.67 floor case
are modest. This is clearly apparent from PEDCo's scrubber cost estimates,
whicli show modest cost differences between .67 and .8. See Appendix A.
Coal Production
The hiqher floors create a greater value for low sulfur coal. Hence,
westorn production and western coal consumed in the East is up to about the
same level forecast for the current NSPS.
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Central Appalachian production is still down somewhat because the supply
of very low sulfur coal (which results in the greatest cost savings through
partial scrubbing) is extremely limited in Appalachia, as well as very
expensive, and hence generally is not forecast to be used in ANSPS plants.
The price premium that must be paid for these coals exceeds the cost savings
of partial scrubbing.
Coal-Fired Capacity
As discussed above, the less stringent the standard, the lower the com-
pliance costs, the lower the oil consumption, and the higher the coal-fired
capacity. Coal-fired capacity is forecast to increase with the higher
floors, but very modestly, just as oil consumption was forecast to decrease
very modestly.
Utility Capital Expenditures
Capital expenditures are forecast to decrease slightly under the higher
floors, because scrubber costs are reduced and no substantial increase
in coal-fired capacity is forecast.
Cost Per Ton Removed
The average cost per ton removed drops sharply to the 0.67 floor but far
less sharply to the 0.80 pound floor:
(10 $/ton)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
1990
199
4- 1-
0.2 Ol5 0.67 0.8
(Ibs. S02/10 Btu)
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Hence, based on this cost data, it appears the Largest cost-effectiveness
saving can be achieved in moving to a 0.67 floor.
However, average costs per ton removed can be misleading. A superior
approach is to assess the marginal costs of moving from a higher standard to
a lower standard. These are presented below:
MARGINAL COSTS PER TON REMOVED
1978 $
1990 1995
1.2 to .8
0.8 to 0.67
0.67 to 0.5
0.5 to 0.2
570
909
3,571
*
508
333
767
10,000
* Because emissions are forecast to
increase in moving from 0.5 to 0.2
The average and marginal costs per ton removal are generally lower in 1995 than
1990 because ANSPS capacity accounts for a greater portion of generation by 1995.
Hence, reduction in emissions from the ANSPS plants have a greater effect on
total emissions, and these reductions cannot as readily be offset by increases
in emissions from these plants.
Scrubber Capacity
Partial scrubbing capacity in the 0.67 case is about double the 0.5
case, and the 0.8 case is greater brighter than the 0.67 case. This large
increase occurs because the PEDCo cost estimates data shows partial scrubbing
costs at 0.67 as being 60% of those at 0.5. (See Appendix A.) Partial
scrubbing capacity is forecast to increase in every region.
The partial scrubbing capacity shown in the "East" is actually in the
East South Central Region (e.g., Tennessee). See map at end of Appendix A.
Summary Overview
The effect of the DOE specified higher floors are:
increased emissions (although in 1980 the 0.67 case is
not significantly different from the 0.2 case; it is
in 1995)
no significant change in oil consumption
_!_/ As of this writing, there is some evidence that the costs estimates
(particularly for the 0.67 case) contained an error.
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reduced costs
increased western coal production
reduced average cost (and marginal cost) per ton re-
moved
increased partial scrubbing.
DOE SPECIFIED SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
DOE requested that sensitivity analyses be performed with request to
three key parameters:
oil prices
real rail rate escalation
electricity growth rates
For oil prices, two alternative oil price assumptions were tested for
1990, at $17 per barrel and $12.70 per barrel versus the $20 assumed in-
itially.
For real rail rate escalation, one additional assumption was tested:
zero real escalation versus one percent per year through 1995 assumed
initially.
For electricity growth rates, one higher set of growth rates was tested:
5.8 through 1985 and 5.0 through 1990 versus 4.8 and 4.0 percent respectively
assumed initially.
Each of the alternative ANSPS (with exemptions) was tested at both al-
ternative oil prices. These forecasts are summarized on Table 3 for 1990.
The real escalation assumptions were assessed only relative to the .2
and .67 floors (without exemptions). These forecasts are summarized on
Table 4.
The increased electricity growth rate was not assessed independently.
It was assessed only together with the reduced oil prices assumption (i.e.,
$13 per barrel) and the no real rail escalation assumption for all floors but
.8 (with exemptions). These forecasts are summarized on Table 5.
These summary forecasts are discussed below.
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Alternative Oil Prices Assumptions
The effect of lower oil prices is increased oil consumption and reduced
coal consumption. More oil is forecast to be used when it is less ex-
pensive. Correspondingly, there are decreases in the following forecast
measures - coal production, western coal consumed in East, coal-fired
capacity, utility capital expenditures (because less new coal capacity is
built), and scrubber capacity. See Table 3.
Also, sulfur emissions are forecast to be higher under reduced oil
prices, because more residual oil at about 1 pound of SO per million btu's
is forecast to be consumed instead of coal in new plants at about 0.5 pounds
(depending on the ANSPS). Hence, for the ANSPS under consideration, pro-
grams and policies designed to reduce utility oil consumption will simultan-
eously reduce sulfur emissions.
Also, compliance costs are forecast to be lower with lower oil prices
because (a) there would be less new coal capacity to control and (b) the
costs of avoiding scrubbers by using more oil are reduced.
Hence, the level of all these measures is affected by the oil prices.
Similarly, the differences between the ANSPS are affected, not in direction
but generally in magnitude.
The changes in total emissions associated with the ANSPS are not as
great, because less new coal capacity would be subject to the new standards.
The changes in oil consumption between ANSPS is uneven, in that some-
times it is forecast to be more and sometimes less than at higher oil prices.
However, on the whole, it appears to be slightly greater, because the level
of oil consumption is higher. At the lower oil prices, had it been assumed
that DOE would permit new oil-fired combined cycle units, uitility oil
consumption would have been more sensitive to the various ANSPS.
The changes in costs are reduced because the level of total costs is re-
duced.
The shifts in regional coal production are in the same direction but of
reduced magnitude, as are the changes in coal-fired capacity, capital ex-
penditures, and scrubber capacity.
The changes in average cost per ton removed are generally similar with
these measures being somewhat lower at each ANSPS. The largest decrease
comes in moving from 0.5 to 0.67 pound floor, as at the higher oil price.
Hence, in general, the alternative oil price assumption affect the
level of forecast measures at each ANSPS, but not the relative difference
between the various ANSPS.
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No Real Rail Rate Escalation
Only the 0.2 and 0.67 cases (with exemptions) were run with the no real
rail rate escalation assumption. A current NSPS case was not run with no
real rail rate escalation assumption. Hence, measures of differences between
the current NSPS and the ANSPS could not be reported. Rather, the two ANSPS
cases are compared with and without real rail rate escalation.
No real rail rate escalation results in
reduced oil consumption because delivered coal prices are less
reduced emissions because more coal capacity subject to ANSPS
is built, displacing generation from other coal and oil units
with higher emission rates,
increased coal production in the Northern Great Plains and re-
duced production in the Appalachian and the Midwest, increasing
Western coal consumed in the East substantially,
increased partial scrubbing of western low-sulfur bituminous
coals.
Not enough cases were run to assess whether real rate escalation would
substantially affect the relative evaluation of the various ANSPS. In prin-
cipal, lower rail rates would reduce the delivered cost of western very low
sulfur coals and thereby would tend to make ANSPS providing for partial
scrubbing coals more attractive. However, not enough cases were run to test
this hypothesis.
Combined Changes
The combined effect of lower oil prices (i.e., $13 per barrel), no
real rail escalation, and higher electricity growth rates are summarized on
Table 5. (No .8 pound floor case was run.)
The effect of the lower oil price is to reduce coal use. The effect
of the other two alternative assumptions is to increase coal use.
The combined effect of these assumptions is:
to increase coal consumption and production, with almost
all the increase occurring in the Northern Great Plains
(as a result of the reduced rail escalation), resulting
in large increases in Western-coal consumed in the East,
to increase oil consumption as well, because of the lower
oil price and higher electricity growth rate,
to increase sulfur dioxide emissions, because more fossil
fuel is burned.
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to increase coal-fired capacity and utility capital ex-
penditures because more coal would be burned,
to reduce the level of average cost per ton removed (as
a result of the reduced oil price and the increased ANSPS
capacity),
to increase partial scrubbing capacity under .5 and 0.67,
both because the delivered prices of low sulfur coal
would be reduced as a result of no real rail rate es-
calation assumption and because more ANSPS capacity
would be built.
The relative changes between the various ANSPS are the same in direction
and the magnitudes change as follows:
the emissions decrease between the current NSPS and the
three ANSPS is greater, because more capacity would be
subject to the ANSPS as a result of the higher electricity
growth rate,
the change in utility oil consumption that appeared be-
tween 0.2 and 0.5 now appears between 0.5 and 0.67,
the changes in costs are almost identical, reflecting
the offsetting effects of higher electricity growth rate
and reduced oil prices together with reduced real rail
rates,
the change in regional coal production has the same di-
rection but greater magnitude, reflecting increased coal
use,
the major drop in the average cost per ton removed again
is apparent in moving from 0.5 to 0.67,
partial scrubbing capacity again increases substantially
between 0.5 and 0.67.
t Ion co, these alternative assumptions tend to change the levels of
forecast measures but not the relative differences between various ANSPS.
UNCERTAINTIES
As for any analysis, the assumptions made for the analyses reported
herein can have a substantial effect on the findings. In this section, we
discuss the key assumptions, which are those we believe are a) uncertain,
and b) could have a substantial effect on the findings.
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Including assumptions in the discussion below does not mean we believe
these assumptions are wrong or inappropriate. Rather, it means we believe
that interested readers should understand what assumptions were made and what
effect alternative assumptions could have.
These assumptions are grouped below into a) those that would determine
the level of the effects of the ANSPS but probably not the relative differences
between the ANSPS and b) those that could affect the relative differences.
Those Determining the Level of the Effects
As noted above, it appears oil prices and electricity growth rates deter-
mine the levels of the effects of the ANSPS, but not the relative differences.
We would also add nuclear capacity assumptions to this list. Higher growth
rates, higher oil prices, and lower nuclear capacity would increase the effects
of the ANSPS because more coal-fired capacity subject to ANSPS would be built
and vice versa. It is unlikely changes in any of these assumptions would affect
the relative rankings of the ANSPS.
In the sensitivity analyses reported above, it could not be determined
whether real rate escalation would affect the relative differences. Since in
concept this assumption could affect the relative differences, it is discussed
below.
The specification of what plants will be subject to ANSPS affects the
level of effects. It was assumed that all units coming on line in 1983 and
thereafter would have to comply with ANSPS. If this date were moved one year
in the future, fewer plants would be affected and the level of effects would
be reduced. The converse is also true.
The assumed averaging period for state implementation plan emission
limitations, the current federal NSPS, and any state standards for new plants
is an important assumption. Annual averages were assumed and of these stan-
dards (or only the current NSPS) were assumed to be enforced on a short-term
average basis, the costs of the current NSPS runs reported above would be
higher and the emission would be lower. Simultaneously, the changes between
the current NSPS and the ANSPS cases (for emissions, costs, coal production,
etc.) would be substantially reduced.
Those Affecting the Relative Differences
The assumption concerning real rail rate escalation (i.e., one percent
per year through 1995) would affect the apparent attractiveness of partial
scrubbing. Lower assumed real escalation rates would reduce the delivered
cost of western very low sulfur coal and thereby make partial scrubbing
economic in a broader geographic area.
Scrubbing and partial costs are possibly the single most important
assumption. The sensitivity of the forecast variables to changes in partial
scrubbing cost assumptions was demonstrated in our previous report on the
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subject. As of the date of this writing, there is some evidence that
the cost estimates used for this study contained some errors, causing the
partial, scrubbing cost estimates to be understated.
Also, the costs of the effects of scrubbers on powerplant reliability
have not been included in this study. Explicit treatment of reliability would
no doubt increase total scrubber costs somewhat and possibly increase the
relative economics of partial scrubbing.
The assumed prohibition of new oil-fired combined cycle units by DOE
under recent legislation is an important assumption. If DOE permits new
oil-fired combined cycle units to be built, the forecasted affect of the
ANSPS on utility oil and gas consumption would be greater.
All the assumptions and specifications related to averaging periods
are important on such measures as scrubber costs, regional coal production,
and emissions. These include a) averaging period for standard (e.g.,
daily or longer), b) confidence levels (i.e., how many violations per
period allowed) and c) the assumed relative standard deviation (RSD) for
the sulfur content of coal. Some of the dynamics involved here are:
lonc|(?r rtveraginq periods, lower confidence levels of compliance with the
specified standard (e.g., how many violations of daily standard permitted per
month), and lower assumed RSD's lead to lower scrubber costs and a lower
portion of reserves that cannot be burned in ANSPS plants.
Also, the effect of the short-term average considerations on emissions
is important in that calculations show that long-term average emissions
rates have to be substantially below short-term standards (i.e., short-term
average emission rates) in order to ensure the short-term standard is met.
This leads, for example, to a maximum annual emission rate of 0.5 pounds
of sulfur dioxide per million btus to comply with a 1.2 ceiling and annual
emission rates of 0.32 pounds to comply with a 0.5 pound floor. It is
important to understand that a 1.2 pound 24-hour average standards results
in an annual emissions rate of 0.5 pounds, while a 1.2 pound annual average
leads to an annual emissions rate of 1.2 pounds.
However, these calculations assume that scrubber performance can not
be fine-tuned in that, for example, in order to comply with an 85 percent
removal requirement on a 24-hour average basis, scrubbers must average 90
percent removal. If scrubbers can be "fined-tuned," they would be held at
Hi<< 24-hour average standard, whether it would be 85 percent removal, 1.2
pound ceiling, or a 0.5 pound floor. Hence, the long-term average would
be the same as the short-term average.
_V Effects of Alternative New Source Performance Standards for Coal-Fired
Electric Utility Boilers on the Coal Markets and on Utility Capacity
Expansion Plans, September, 1978.
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The ability to "fine-tune" assumption is important, but it could be
obviated by an alternative standard specification. For example, if we
believed that an 85 percent 24-hour assumption was consistent with a 90
percent monthly average assumption, the standard could be specified as a)
85 percent daily, and b) 90 percent monthly. Such a specification would
eliminate the uncertainty associated with the ability to "fine-tune."
In these analyses, the opportunity to blend coals to reduce peak sulfur
contents was not provided as an option, because cost estimates for such
blending was not available. Blending to reduce peaks could reduce the
cost and coal production effects of short-term average standards substan-
tially. It would also increase annual emissions rates associated with short-
term standards.
As noted above, the assumed RSD for the sulfur content in coal is
important. EPA specified that we use .15. We judged that it was possible
that this assumption could be low. To compensate, with EPA's approval, we
did not take into account the sulfur retained in the ash after combustion,
which can be 15 to 25 percent for western sub-bituminous and lignite coals.
Further, we took no account of sulfur removed through washing on percent
removal requirements.
The sulfur content of western sub-bituminous coals has been discovered
to be a major uncertainty. The sulfur contents assumed for the analyses
reported herein are consistent with the data published by the Bureau of Mines.
However, an issue has arisen concerning the sulfur content of sub-bituminous
coals in the Wyoming Powder River Basin. The Bureau of Mines data shows
most of these reserves to be about one pound of sulfur per million btus (or
nearly one percent sulfur). On the other hand, many of the producers claims
their Wyoming Powder River coal is about 0.4 pounds sulfur, and this is con-
firmed somewhat by data on the sulfur content of current coal shipments
from Powder River. The Bureau of Mines data indicates there is some 0.4
pounds coal in the Wyoming Powder River Basin, but that most is about one
pound. It is possible that only the 0.4 pound reserves are being developed.
However, it is also possible that the Bureau of Mines data does not accurately
represent Wyoming Powder River coal. If there were more very low sulfur coal
(i.e., 0.4 pounds) than the Bureau of Mines data reflects, the delivered
price of low sulfur coal would be lower, and the economics of partial
scrubbing would be enhanced.
State severance taxes are an important uncertainty. Current state
severance taxes were assumed. However, if some of these were increased,
the delivered price of low sulfur coal would be increased, and the economic
attractiveness of partial scrubbing would be reduced.
Real escalation of labor costs was assumed to be one percent per year
after the recent UMW/BCOA labor contract expires in 1980. Higher escalation
would favor western coal and partial scrubbing. Lower escalation would favor
eastern coal. This is because labor costs are higher absolutely and as a
percentage of total costs in the East than in the West. Hence, labor costs
increase mining costs more in the East than in the West.
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TABLE 1-A
REVISED P*£LIMISARY SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR 1985
(1978 S's)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 197B
85% Reooval
National. SC. Missions (10 tor.s)
Oil/Gas '
Coal
Existing
HSPE
ASSPS
Total
Total SO Eaissioas (10 tons)
East
Midwest
West Sooti Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consmption
(10 btu's)
Change ID A&nualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
Coal ProductIOD (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coai Consumed in East
(10 tons)
Current KSPS
2.43
17.89
14.78
2.20
0.91
20.32
9.53
8.00
1.85
0.94
20.32
5.7
420.6
222.4
322.5
150.9
1,116.5
76.9
0.2
With Exemptions
2.46
17.28
14.75
2.21
0.32
19.74
9.27
7.94
1.67
0.86
19.74
5.8
0.2
Without Exemptions
2.49
17.31
14.82
2.29
0.20
19.30
9.30
7.98
1.67
0.85
19.80
5.9
0.5
With exemptions
2.46
17.30
14.76
2.22
0.32
19.76
9.28
7.95
1.66
0.87
19.76
5.8
0.5
Without Exemptions
2.49
17.33
14.82
2.30
0.21
19.82
9.30
7.98
1.67
0.87
19.82
5.9
0.4
5. 1
416.7
277.8
316.8
153.0
1,114.3
78.7
0.4
5.1
414.6
218.8
327.6
153.0
1,114.0
83.1
0.3
4.4
413.5
227.8
327.3
149.0
1,117.6
77.8
0.3
4.5
414.6
220.3
331.2
148.9
1,115.8
81.6
o
Tl
z
o
O
30
T)
O
31
9
o
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 312.4
Cunulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($ 10 ) 266.1
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal (5/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
DSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
Midwest
Heat South Central
West
Total
5.7
31.2
39.7
10.7
10.7 (65.3)
3.0
0.1
4.1
3.5
B7.3
309.6
266.3
669.2
5.7
29.3
34.2
30.5
30.5
99.7
307.4
265.4
754.3
5.7
32.1
34.7
28.3
28.3 (90.0)
309.6
266.3
605.3
307.4
265.2
686.9
100.8
5
29
35
30
.7
.6
.0
.5
23
7
.5
.0 (60.2)
1.5
5.4
-
5
32
35
28
.7
. 1
. 1
.4
20
7
.7
.7
1
3
2
(60.
.6
.4
.7
2)
100.8
101.8
-------
Sa osal SO Emissions (10 tone)
o
n
2
O
o
a
o
O
m
o
Coal
Existing
SSPS
1SSFS
Total
Total SO Emissions (10 tons)
East
Midwest
West South Central
West;
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Annual! zed Cost
Absolute (5 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Coos'-ner Costs ($ 10 )
Coal Production MO6 tons)
Appolachia
Midwest
orthern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($ 10 )
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
RSPS
ANSPS
Pull
Partial (% Removal)
East
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
Current NSPS
1.05
20.36
13.84
2.13
4.39
21.44
10.19
7.77
2.25
1.25
21.44
2.6
464.7
275.4
587.1
197.5
1,524.6
149.2
451.0
505.5
5.7
41.7
40.3
44.2
0.3
43.9 (52.1)
20.9
0.1
16.8
6.1
131.9
TABLE 1-B
J>.KY SUMMARY OF ALTER.'
(1978 S's)
0.2
With Exemptions
1.40
17.46
13.98
2.26
1.22
18.86
8.95
7.61
1.49
0.81
18.86
3.3
2.3
1.70
26.0
443.8
317.8
541.8
193.6
1,502.0
118.4
427.7
502.8
886.5
5.7
28.8
33.8
146.7
146.7
-
214.9
;ATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR.
35% Removal
0.2
1990
0.5
Without Exemptions With Exemptions
1.43
17.51
14. 18
2.37
0.96
18.94
8.93
7.71
1.50
0.81
18.94
3.4
2.7
2.06
31. 1
469.0
276.9
558.2
194.6
1,498.7 1,
135.0
425.5
502.0
1,094.6
5.7
33.8
33.5
144.4
144.4 (90.0)
-
217.5
1.24
17.51
13.91
2.26
1.33
18.75
8.95
7.55
1.38
0.87
18.75
3.0
2.0
1.51
23.2
450.0
315.6
552.1
199.6
517.3
117.1
439.0
510.1
755.5
5.7
30.5
34.8
158.0
119.0
39.0 (60.2)
-
8.2
20.3
10.5
229.0
Preliminary
September ' ,
0.5
Without Exemptions
1.27
17.56
14. 11
2.38
1.07
18.83
8.91
7.67
1.38
0.87
18.83
3.0
2.5
1.84
27. B
467.3
275.3
571.5
201.1
1,515.2
139.9
437.0
508.8
939.5
5.7
32.8
34.6
156.0
109.4
46.6 (60.0)
2.4
9.5
24.3
10.5
229. 1
19?b
-------
o
-n
o
o
3
TJ
National SO Enassions (10 tons)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
HSPS
ANSPS
Total
Total SO Emissions (10 tons)
Bast
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Qiange in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
northern Great Plains
west
Total
Western Coal Consigned in East
(10 tons)
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 312.4
REVISED PRELIHINARir
Current NSPS
2.43
17.89
14.78
2.20
0.91
20.32
9.53
8.00
1.85
0.94
20.32
5.7
-
-
420.6
222.4
322.5
150.9
1,116.5
76.9
[ABI
SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR 1985
(1978 $'s)
85% Removal
0.2
With Exemptions
2.46
17.28
14.75
2.21
0.32
19.74
9.27
7.94
1.67
0.86
19.74
5.8
0.4
0.37
5. 1
416.7
277.8
316.8
153.0
1,114.3
78.7
0.2
0.5
Without Exemptions With Exemptions
2.49
17.31
14.82
2.29
0.20
19.80
9.30
7.98
1.67
0.85
19.80
5.9
0.4
0.38
5.1
414.6
218.8
327.6
153.0
1,114.0 1.
83.1
2.46
17.30
14.76
2.22
0.32
19.76
9.28
7.95
1.66
0.87
19.76
5.8
0.3
0.32
4.4
413.5
227.8
327.3
149.0
117.6
77.8
Pr« " ' ' try
Sej. 1
0.5
Without Exemptions
2.49
17.33
14.82
2.30
0.21
19.82
9.30
7.98
1.67
0.87
19.82
5.9
0.3
0.33
4.5
414.6
220.3
331.2
148.9
1,115.8
81.6
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures (S 10 )
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
East
Midwest
Wevt South Central
West
Total
266.1
5.7
31.2
39.7
10.7
10
309.6
266.3
669.2
5.7
29.3
34.2
30. S
30.5
.7 (65.3)
3.0
0.1
4.1
3.5
307.4
265.4
754.3
5.7
32.1
34.7
28.3
28.3 (90.0)
309.6
266.3
605.3
307.4
265.2
686.9
5.7
29;6
35.0
30.5
23
7
.5
.0
1.
5.
(60.2)
5
4
5
32
35
28
.7
. 1
. 1
.4
20.7
7.7 (60.2)
1.6
1'J
87.3
-------
C.20-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
(10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,732.8
NSPS 453.5
ANSPS 135.6
Oil/Gas Plants 80.2
Total 5,402.1
3.039
0.756
0.516
0.266
4.577
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,672.0
NSPS 414.7
ANSPS 78.2
Oil/Gas Plants 35.7
Total 2,200.6
3.916
1.168
0.534
0.620
2.232
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,404.8
868.8
213.8
115.9
7,602.7
3.893
1.466
0.808
0.381
6.548
3.290
1.184
0.530
0.608
2.322
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
700.7
460.8
247.1
1,559.2
0.133
1.168
1.954
0.548
3.803
2.264
1.200
0.472
0.902
0.820
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
339.2
169.3
237.3
9.2
755.0
1.078
0.638
0.464
0.340
0.676
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 1-C
REVISED PRELIMINARY SWHARY OP ALTERNATIVE HSPS FORECASTS FOR 1995
(1978 $'«)
Preliminary Draft
emb« 1976
Rational SO Emissions (10
Oil/Gas
Goal
Bxlating
tone)
AHSPS
Total
6
Total SO. Emissions (10 tons)
East
Midwest
Heat South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 >
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Conswed in Bast
(10 tons)
Current HSPS
0.59
22.66
12.54
2.23
7.89
23.26
11.04
7.91
2.62
1.68
29.26
1.7
523.3
331.S
815.3
195.1
1.865.2
209.9
85% Removal
0.2
Witb Exertions
0.69
17.78
13.06
2.36
2.36
18.47
8.79
7.45
1.45
0.78
18.47
1.9
3.0
1.75
32.3
532.7
397.0
759.8
175.9
1,865.4
129.7
0.2
Without Exemptions
0.72
17.55
13.22
2.36
1.97
18.27
8.65
7.38
1.45
0.78
18.27
1.9
4.2
2.49
44.5
557.4
332.7
799.0
180.1
1,869.1
173.1
0.5
With Exemptions
0.69
17.82
12.95
2.40
2.47
18.51
8.70
7.43
1.46
0.92
18.51
1.9
2.6
1.55
28.6
534.1
390.1
750.9
183.5
1.858.6
133.2
0.5
Without Exemptions
0.72
17.58
13.07
2.42
2.09
18.30
8.64
7.29
1.46
0.91
18.30
1.9
3.6
2.13
38.2
544.3
325.5
817.7
184.1
1,871.6
204.1
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (CM) 587.4
580.0
578.3
580.2
578.3
o
n
I
30
I
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($ 10 )
Average Cost per Ton SO.
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Pull
Partial (% Removal)
Bast
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
762.7
5.7
49.6
45.2
89.4
0
89
3
1 (58.2)
58.6
2.1
16.8
11.6
190.0
783.2
622.9
5.7
29.S
33.9
298.6
298.6
367.7
782.4
850.4
5.7
38.4
33.3
296.8
296.8
217.5
779.6
557.5
5.7
30.5
38.4
299.2
231.4
67.8 (60.2)
17.7
30.4
19.7
376.2
778.5
731.9
5.7
37.3
35.8
297.2
207.2
90.0 (60.2)
4.4
27.2
38.6
19.8
375.9
-------
TABLE 2-A
REVISED PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OP ALTERMATIVE NSPS FORECASTS POD 1985
(1978 $'S)
Preliminary Draft
Septeaber 1, 1976
National SO Enissions ( 10 tons)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
SSPS
ASSPS
Total
Total SO Baissior.s (10 tons)
East
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 5 btu's)
Change in Annual^zed Cost
Absolute ($
Percentage
109.
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(106 tons)
Current NSPS
2.43
17.89
14.78
2.20
0.91
20.32
9.53
8.00
1.85
0.94
20.32
5.7
420.6
222.4
322.5
150.9
1,116.5
76.9
0.2
With Exemptions
2.46
17.28
14.75
2.21
0.32
19.74
9.27
7.94
1.67
0.86
19.74
5.8
0.4
0.37
S.I
416.7
277.8
316.8
153.0
1,114.3
78.7
85% Ra
0.5
With Exemptions
2.46
17.30
14.76
2.22
0.32
19.76
9.28
7.95
1.66
0.87
19.76
5.8
0.3
0.32
4.4
413.5
227.8
327.3
149.0
1,117.6
77.8
oval
0.67
With Exemptions
2.45
17.33
14.75
2.21
0.37
19.78
9.28
7.95
1.67
0.88
19.78
5.7
0.2
0.22
3.2
412.5
226.2
335.8
147.2
1,121.7
79.2
0.8
With Exemptions
2.44
17.35
14.75
2.20
0.40
19.80
9.28
7.95
1.68
0.89
19.80
5.7
0.2
0.2
2.8
412.9
225.8
330.1
152.0
1,120.8
78.9
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 312.4
o
Tl
1
o
§
25
m
o
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($ 10 )
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal ($/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Kant
Midwest
Heat South Central
Heat
Total
266.1
5.7
31.2
39.7
10.7
10.7 (65.3)
3.0
0.1
4.1
3.5
87.3
309.6
266.3
669.2
5.7
29.3
34.2
30.5
30.5
99.7
309.6
266.3
605.3
5.7
29.6
35.0
30.5
23.
7.0 (60.2)
1.5
5.4
311.1
266.9
450.3
5.7
30.0
35.6
32.0
20.
11.
100.8
5 (48.5)
0.2
3.0
3.7
4.6
311.4
267.0
405.0
5.7
29.9
35.3
32.3
20.
1
12.2 (42.2)
0.6
3.0
3.7
4.9
103.3
103.2
-------
Sa-iooal SO Buss ions (10 tons)
Oil/Gas
Coal
. Existing
SSPS
ANSPS
Total
Total SO Emissions '10 tons)
Bast
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Annoalized Cost
Absolute (S 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
TABLE 2-B
REVISED PRELIKIHARX StMMARV Of ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR 1990
(1978 S'6)
65% Removal
Current NSPS
1.05
20.36
13.84
2.13
4.39
21.44
10.19
7.77
2.25
1.25
21.44
2.6
~
-
464.7
275.4
587.1
197.5
1,524.6
149.2
0.2
With Exemptions
1.40
17.46
13.98
2.26
1.22
18.86
8.95
7.61
1.49
0.81
18.86
3.3
2.3
1.70
26.0
448.8
317.8
541.8
193.6
1,502.0
118.4
O.S
With Exemptions
1.24
17.51
13.91
2.26
1.33
18.75
8.95
7.55
1.38
0.87
18.75
3.0
2.0
1.51
23.2
450.0
315.6
552.1
199.6
1,517.3
117.1
0.67
With Exeaptions
1.24
17.66
13.92
2.22
1.52
18.89
8.94
7.57
1.45
0.93
18.89
3.0
1.5
1. 14
17.4
449.9
293.6
584.1
195.2
1,522.8
146.5
Pri nary t
September 1, 1978
0.8
With Exemptions
1.23
17.88
13.90
2.22
1.76
19.11
8.99
7.60
1.56
0.96
19.11
2.9
1.3
0.99
15.1
449.0
290.4
582.9
200.6
1,522.9
152.1
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 451.0
o
n
O
S
TJ
O
33
*1
m
O
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures (S 10 )
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal ($/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full .
Partial (% Removal)
East
Midwest
W4«t South Central
Went
Total
505.5
5.7
41.7
40.3
44.2
0.3
43.9 (52.
20.9
0.1
16.8
6.1
1)
131.9
427.7
502.8
886.5
5.7
28.8
33.8
146.7
146.7
214.9
439.0
510.1
755.5
439.5
506.8
600.7
5.7
30.5
34.8
158.0
119.0
39.0 (60.2)
-
8.2
20.3
10.5
5.7
29.1
37.7
158.5
81.4
77.1 (4&.9)
17.3
13.3
29.0
17. S
440.8
506.8
570.0
5
29
36
159
.7
. 1
.5
.8
71
88
.5
.3
17
14
35
19
(40.
.9
.6
.9
.9
5)
229.0
231.0
231.2
-------
TABLE 2-C
REVISED PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR 1995
(1978 S's)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Current NSPS
85% Removal
0.2
0.5
With Exempt-ions
Hith Exemptions
0.67
With Exemptions
0.8
Hith Exemptions
national SO Eniseions (*3 tons)
Oil/Gas 0.59
Coal 22.66
Existing 12.54
HSPS 2.23
ANSPS 7.69
Total 23.26
0.69
17.78
13.06
2.36
2.36
18.47
0.69
17.82
12.95
2.40
2.47
18.51
0.69
18.05
12.90
2.37
2.78
18.74
0.69
18.35
12.94
2.26
3.15
19.04
Total SO Emissions !10 toes)
East
Midwest
Vest South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btn's)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute (S 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consider Costs (S 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
west
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
11.04
7.91
2.62
1.68
23.26
1.7
523.3
331.5
815.3
195.1
1,865.2
209.9
Coal Fired Generation Capacity
-------
E 3
National SO Emissions (10 tons)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Total SO Enissior.s ( 10 tons)
East
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 )
Percentage -
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
6
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia 464.7
Midwest 275.4
Northern Great Plains 587.1
West 197.S
Total 1,524.6
Western Coal Consujaed in Bast 149.2
(1C tons)
Current NSPS 1.2
$20.00
Oil Prices
IS)
1.05
20.36
13.84
2.13
4.39
21.44
10.19
7.77
2.25
1.25
21.44
2.6
Current NSPS 1.2
$12.70
Oil Prices
2.16
19.19
14.39
2.08
2.72
21.36
10.04
7.90
2.18
1.19
21.36
5.3
Current SSPS 1.2
$17.00
Oil Prices
1.16
19.84
14.04
2.07
3.73
21.47
10.13
7.80
2.22
1.26
21.47
3.7
431.5
267.7
533.1
178.4
1,410.7
137.3
449.8
268.6
569.5
191.6
1,479.5
147.4
TS FOR 1990
0.2
$20.00
Oil Price
1.40
17.46
13.98
2.26
1.22
18.86
8.95
7.61
1.49
0.81
18.86
3.3
2.3
1.70
26.0
448.8
317.8
541.8
193.6
1,502.0
118.8
(1978 S's)
85% Removal
0.2
S12.70
Oil Price
2.41
17.27
14.35
2.27
0.65
19.68
3.35
7.80
1.63
0.90
19.68
6.1
1.1
0.8
12.8
421.6
281.0
498.1
181. S
1,382.2
118.2
Pa:
Preliminary :ra-ft
September 1, 1978
C.2
$17.00
Oil Price
1.87
17.33
14. 15
2.19
0.99
19.20
9.08
7.68
1.58
0.86
19.20
4.4
1.9
1.5
21.7
440.0
303.3
518.1
192.2
1,453.6
115.8
Coal Fired Generation Capacity
-------
TABLE 3 - (confdi
Page 2
REVISE, PPELIMINARY SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOF 1990 (1578 $'si
851 Removal
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1976
Rational SO Emissions (10 tons)
Oil/3as
Coal
NSPS
ASS PS
Total
Total SO. Emissions (13 tons)
East '
Hidvesi
West South Cer.irai
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Aanualized Cost
Absolute
-------
aticrval SO Emissions (10 tons)
o
n
o
o
30
1
m
o
Coal
NSPS
A.SSPS
Total
6
Total SC Emissions (10 tons)
Midwes-
West South Central
Wes*
Utility Oil/Gas Consumption
ity Oil/Ga
10 bcu's)
Change ir. Annualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present Value, of
Cor.svmer Costs {$ 10 )
Coal Production < 10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
Northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
Coal Fired Generation Capacity
(GW)
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ( S 10 )
Average Cost Per Ton SO2
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partical (* Removal)
Bast
Midwest
West South Central
West
Total
;RNATIVE SSPS FORECASTS FOR 1990 (
85% Removal
0.3
520.00
Oil Price
1.23
17.88
13.90
2.22
1.76
19.11
8.99
7.60
1.56
0.96
19.11
2.9
1.3
0.99
15.1
449.0
290.4
582.9
200.6
1,522.9
152. 1
440.8
506.8
570.0
5.7
29.1
36.5
159.5
71.5
88.3 (40
17.9
14.6
35.9
19.9
231.2
0.8
$12.70
Oil Price
2.32
17.57
14.34
2.20
1.03
19.89
9.38
7.78
1.72
1.01
19.89
5.8
0.6
0.5
7. 1
417.0
273.3
530.8
180.6
1,401.7
135.0
362.6
453.0
423. 1
5.7
26.7
34.2
82.5
33.1
.5) 49.4 (40.
15.8
7.2
14.0
12.4
149.1
1978 S's; Sep
0.8
S17.00
Oil Price
1.85
17.64
14.07
2.18
1.39
19.50
9.14
7.68
1.70
0.98
19.50
4.3
1.0
0.7
11.2
437.9
278.5
557.1
189.7
1,463.2
146.4
398.5
476.5
505.9
5.7
26.5
34.3
117.5
52.7
3) 64.8 (41.7)
17.3
13.2
15.5
18.8
184.0
lin , Dra.
September 1, 1978
-------
TABLE 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REVISED PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OP
ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOR 1990
(1978 S'6)
85% Renovai
SO Saissicr.s (10
ton)
national
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
f
Total SO B-.issisis '12 tons)
East
Midwest
West South Ces-ral
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Cons
(10 btu'sj
0.2 It Rail escalation
1.4C
17.46
13.98
2.26
1.22
18.86
8.95
7.61
1.49
0.81
18.86
3.3
0.2 No Rail Escalation
1.22
17.23
13.81
2.16
1.26
18.45
8.84
7.46
1.33
0.82
18.45
3.0
0.67 It Hail escalation
1.24
17.66
13.92
2.22
1.52
18.89
8.94
7.57
1.45
0.93
18.83
3.0
0.67 So Rail Escalation
1.20
17.39
13.63
2.20
1.56
18.59
8.75
7.46
1.45
0.93
18.59
2.9
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute fS 1C )
Percentage
Change in Present Value of
Consumer Costs (S 10 )
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
northern Great Plains
west
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
448.8
317.8
541.8
193.6
1,502.0
118.4
436.2
288.5
618.3
194.2
1,537.2
173.6
449.9
293.6
584.1
195.2
1,522.8
146.5
430.0
270.4
646.2
195.4
1,542.0
208.4
Coal Fired Generation Capacity
(GW)
427.7
440.9
439.S
442.9
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures (S 10 )
514.7
506.8
510.0
o
S
S
Average Cost Per Ton SO
Removal (S/ton)
'Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (% Removal)
Midmst
Wert South Ontral
To'
5.7
28.8
33.8
146.. 7
146.7
,9
5.7
23.2
30.2
159.6
159.6
5.7
29.1
37.7
158.5
81.4
77.1 (45.9)
17.3
13.3
29.0
17.5
-'.o
5.7
19.2
32.8
161.9
78.2
87
7 (46.2)
18.4
18.4
29.1
18.1
719.
-------
TA
REVISED PR£LI«in:WlY SUXMARY OF ALTERNATIVE NSPS FORECASTS FOP. 199'J
(1978 S's)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
National SI Emissions ! 10 tons)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Beis-i."
SSPE
ANSPS
Tcial
c,
Total SC. rzussicr.s (10' tons)
East
Midwest
West Sou^'r. Central
West
Total
Utility Oil/3as Consumption
(10 btu's)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute :S 1C )
Percentage
Change in Present Valu| of
Consumer Costs ($ 10 )
6
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Midwest
northern Great Plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
( 1 0 tons )
Current NSPS
1.05
20.36
13.84
2.13
4.39
21.44
10. 19
7.77
2.25
1.25
21.44
2.6
-
-
464.7
275.4
587.1
197.5
1.524.6
149.2
85%
Three
Assumptions
Removal
0.2 With
Current NSPS Exeaptioris
2.23
21.73
14.13
2.12
5.48
23.96
11.39
8.57
2.45
1.55
23.96
5.8
-
-
447.4
2S6.4
785.6
199.0
1 , 688 . 4
303.8
1.40
17.46
13.56
2.25
1.22
13.36
8.95
7.61
1.49
0.81
18.86
3.3
2.3
1.70
26.0
448.6
317.8
541.8
193.6
1,502.0
1 18.4
Under Tr.ree
Assumptions
0.2
2.50
18.03
14.35
2.21
1.47
20.53
9.90
8.08
1.62
1.03
20.53
6.7
2.2
1.5
29.3
445.8
312.5
691.8
197.5
1,647.6
217.7
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 451.0
472.4
427.7
448.9
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($(10 )
505.5
599. 1
502.8
603. 1
o
Tl
o
O
JO
o
O
30
m
O
Average Cost per Ton SO
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Full
Partial (» Removal)
East
Midwest
West South Central
west
Total
886.5
5
41
40
44
.7
.7
.3
.2
0
43
.3
.9
20
0
16
6
(52,1)
.9
.1
.8
.1
5
29
33
44
0
.7
.3
. 1
.4
.3
44
5.
28.
33.
146.
7
8
8
7
146.
.
0 (47.3)
-
7
16.3
20
7
0. 1
. 1
.5
f\
~
-
131.9
112.4
656.6
5.7
15.5
30.5
167.2
167.2
219.0
-------
TABLE 5 - (con-'dj
REYISEL PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE SSPS FORECASTS PC* 1990
(1978 $'s)
National SO Eaissior.s M;" .o.'is)
Oil/Gas
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Total SO Emissions ''.".
East
Midwest
West South Ce.-.tral
West
Total
Utility Oil/Gas Cons-japtior.
(10 btu's)
Change in Annualized Cost
Absolute ($ 10 )
Percentage
Change in Present value of
Consumer Costs (S 10 )
6
Coal Production (10 tons)
Appalachia
Hidvest
Northern Great plains
West
Total
Western Coal Consumed in East
(10 tons)
Coal Fired Generation Capacity (GW) 439.0
0. 5 With
Exemptions
1.24
17.51
13.91
2.26
1.33
18.75
8.95
7.55
1.38
0.87
18.75
3.0
2.0
1.51
23.2
450.0
315.6
552.1
199.6
1,517.3
117.1
85%
Under Three
Assumptions
0.5
2.49
13. 24
14.33
2.29
1.56
20.73
9.76
8.17
1.69
1.11
20.73
6.7
2.0
1.3
27.1
446.0
301.6
708.3
194.7
1,650.6
231.8
Removal
0.67 With
Exemptions
1.24
17.66
13.92
2.22
1.52
18.89
8.94
7.57
1.45
0.93
18.39
3.0
1.5
1. 14
17.4
449.9
293.6
584.1
195.2
1,522.8
146.5
Under Three
Assumptions
0.67
2.44
13.42
14.34
2.22
1.85
20.36
9.76
8.15
1.76
1.19
20.86
6.5
1.5
1.0
21.9
443.1
283.6
745.1
191.9
1,663.8
266.4
Preliminary Draf'
September 1, 1976
449.6
439.5
454.1
Cumulative Utility Capital
Expenditures ($(10 )
510. 1
600.4
506.8
600.3
o
Tl
z.
o
o
03
TJ
O
30
Average Cost per Ton SO2
Removal (S/ton)
Scrubber Capacity
Existing
Retrofit
NSPS
ANSPS
Pull
Partial (\ Removal)
BBBt
Hidvest
Meat South Central
Neat
Total
755.5
632.7
600.7
473.3
5.7
30.5
34.8
158.0
119
39
229.0
.0
.0
8
20
10
5
16
31
167
.7
.8
.8
.9
111
(60.2)
.2
.3
.5
222.
56
2
.7
.2
6.
19.
11.
19.
(60.2)
9
2
0
0
5.7
29.1
37.7
158.5
81
77
231.6
.4
.1
17.
13.
29.
17.
(45.9)
3
3
0
5
5.7
24.9
33.2
172.4
87.6
84.7
17.
28.
14.
24.
236. 1
(45.9)
1
5
5
3
-------
D
T>
Q_
X
-------
APPENDIX A
SUMMARY DOCUMENTATION
.The forecasts presented in this draft report were made using iCF's Coal
and Electric Utilities Model. This appendix documents this model in summary
form. More detailed documentation will be prepared to accompany the final
report.
This appendix discusses first the scenario specifications (i.e., key
assumptions) employed for these forecasts. Then, changes to the data and
structure of the model are discussed. Finally, a key data change - scrubber
costs - is discussed in greater detail, both in terms of what these cost
estimates were and how they were employed.
SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS
The scenario specifications were developed by the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) in consultation with other federal agencies. These
specifications were very similar to those employed by the Department of
Energy (DOE) for the mid-range forecast of the western coal production study
conducted by ICF in the Spring of 1978.-
The key assumptions employed for the forecasts reported herein are
presented below:
Oil prices (1975 $'s): 1985 $15/bbl.
1990 $20/bbl.
1995 $28/bbl.
Electricity growth rate: 1975-1985 4.8%
1985-1995 4.0%
Nuclear capacity: 1985 99 GW
1990 167 GW
1995 230 GW
Rail transportation One percentage point greater than
rate escalation: the inflation rate over the 1975-95
period.
Labor cost escalation: Recent UMW/BCOA contract settle-
ment plus one percentage point
greater than rate of inflation
over 1981-2015 period.
Combined cycle: Federal government would prohibit
construction of new (oil-fired)
combined-cycle powerplants.
I/ Findings of this study are reported in The Demand for Western Coal and
Its SejTsiti.vity to Key Uncertainties, June 1978.
:V Combined cycle jxawerplants were permitted in Southern California, but the
moiUil chose not to use this option.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-2-
Coal leasing:
Relative standard
deviation RSD:
Sulfur in ash:
Annual emissions rates:
Federal government would lease
enough federal coal that there
would be no constraint on produc-
tion and cheapest-to-mine coals
could be developed first.
0.15 for 24-hour average concern-
ing variability of sulfur in coal.
No sulfur was assumed to be retained
in ash; all sulfur in coal was assumed
to be converted to sulfur dioxide
during combustion.
85 percent removal on 24-hour aver-
age with (and without) three exemp-
tions assumed to remove 90 percent
on annual average. Hence, full
scrubbing a high sulfur coal (e.g.,
5 pounds of SO per 10 btus) results
in an annual emissions rate that is
10 percent (i.e., 1 - .9) of the sulfur
in the coal (e.g., 0.5 pounds). Partial
scrubbing was calculated considering the
difference in scrubber percent removal
between annual and daily average and the
difference in peak sulfur content on a
daily basis versus an annual average.
For example, annua-1 emissions rate for
partial scrubbing a 0.8 pound SO coal
to a 0.5 pound floor are calculated to
be 0.32 pounds of SO per million btus.
2/
\/ This assumption was made at the suggestion of ICF to compensate for a)
a possible underestimate of the RSD (particularly for low sulfur coals)
and b) a possible systematic bias in the Bureau of Mines reserves data
in the direction of underestimating the sulfur content of coal. It was
suggested that 5 percent of the sulfur is retained in the ash of bitumi-
nous coal, and 15 percent is retained for sub-bituminous and lignite.
Hence, sulfur retention in ash is most relevant for western low sulfur
coal (sub-bituminous and lignite) for which the RSD could be substantially
higher than 15 percent if the sulfur distribution in coal is log normal.
2/ Compute percent of flue-gas scrubbed:
X (average SO in coal) (one plus 3 RSD's) (one minus daily
percent removal) + (1-X) (average SO in coal) (one plus 3
RSD's) - .5 (the floor, never to be exceeded, 24-hour average);
where X = percent flue-gas scrubbed. X (.8) (1.45) (.15) +
(1-X) (.8) (1.45) =» .50; X = .67
Then compute annual emissions:
(percent flue-gas scrubbed) (average SO., in coal) (one minus
annual average percent removal) + (one minus percent flue-gas
scrubbed) (average SO in coal) = annual emissions rate;
(.67) (.8) (.1) + (.33) (.8) = .32.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
-3-
Scrubber costs:
Provided by PEDCo (see discussion
below).
ANSPS
- S02:
Different assumptions concerning
percent removal, floors and ceil-
ings. All cases assumed 85 percent
removal on a 24-hour basis with
three exemptions allowed per month.
Alternative floors were .2, .5,
.67, and 8 pounds with and without
three violations per month. (See
discussion below on scrubber costs
for how these ANSPS were modelled.)
- TSP:
0.03 pounds per million btu's.
- NO :
Dakota lignites 0.8
Sub-bituminous 0.5
Bituminous 0.6
Industrial coal
consumption:
Coal for synthetics:
Same as Western coal mid-range
scenarios for 1985 and 1990; 3 per-
cent per year growth for 1990-1995.
Same as Western coal mid-range
scenarios for 1985 and 1999; same
absolute growth between 1990 and
1995 as between 1985 and 1990.
Other demand sectors
(exports, metallurgical,
residential/commercial):
Same as Western coal mid-range
scenarios for 1985 and 1990; same
growth rates for 1990-1995 as for
1985-1990.
Coal plants in Southern
California:
Allowed (additional transmission
charge added to powerplant costs,
assuming site in Mojave Desert).
AND STRUCTURE CHANGES AND ADDITIONS
ICK's Coal and Electric Utility Model was initially documented in
Coal and Electric Utilities Model Documentation, July, 1977. Subsequent
chanyos to the model data and structure are document in
Appendix B of Effects of Alernative New Source Performance
Standards for Coal-Fired Electric Utility Boilers on the
Coal Markets and on Utility Capacity Expansion Plans, Septem-
ber, 1978.
The Demand for Western Coal and Its Sensitivity to Key Uncer-
tainties, June, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-4-
The data and structure changes discussed below were made to the model since
the Western coal study.
Coal Supply Curves
Mine-life assumption was changed from 20 years to 30 years
based on recent data on new long-term contracts. As a
result of these changes, two small bugs in the computer pro-
gram (generating supply curves) were found and corrected.
Inconsistency between Bureau of Mines data and model
inputs was corrected for a substantial portion of Wyoming
sub-bituminous coals (the effect was to increase sulfur con-
tent from about 0.6 pounds of sulfur per million btu's to
1.67 pounds).
Treatment of small Appalachian mines developed for the Western
coal study was retired because implementation in the linear
program led to substantial understatement of Appalachian
coal prices in 1985. Small mines currently are not treated
explicitly but are assumed to be a portion of large mine pro-
duction. (The small mines portion of model needs further
improvement, but current treatment is unlikely to bias fore-
casts presented herein.)
Coal washing sulfur removal and cost factors were reviewed
based on recent studies, but not changed.
Reserves of low-sulfur coal in Utah were increased (reserves
of HB coal were doubled) to compensate for understatement of
Utah reserves.
Coal Transportation
Additional transportation links were added to provide the
model with greater capability to ship from supply regions
to demand regions.
Some of the transportation rates were changed as a result of
a review of the input data. Changes generally increased
rates from west to mid-west slightly.
Demand Sectors
Seven new western regions were created, replacing three
aggregate regions, so that state sulfur standards could
be explicitly incorporated. Separate regions for Utah and
Nevada were created to replace an aggregate Utah/Nevada
region. Separate regions for Arizona and New Mexico were
created to replace an aggregate Arizona/New Mexico region.
Separate regions for Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming were created
to replace an aggregate Idaho/Montana/Wyoming region.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-5--
Th e capability to reduce average sulfur content by blend-
ing higher sulfur coal with itself in order to reduce
peak sulfur contents was provided, but this capability was
not utilized because no cost estimates for such blending
were available in time for the forecasts.
The specification of industrial coal demand was changed
to enable sub-bituminous requirements to be met by bitu-
minous coals of the same sulfur contents.
EPA specified that five western states had state sulfur
emission limitations for new plants below the current 1.2
federal new source performance standards. These were:
6
State Lbs. SO 710 Btu
Arizona .8
California .13
Colorado .5
New Mexico .34
Wyoming .20
Data inputs concerning powerplant capacities and coal
contracts were revised based on more recent data.
Pollutant emission factors were reviewed and revised as
appropriate. SIP's for existing plants were reviewed by
John Crenshaw of EPA (Air Programs). Current emissions
factors are shown in Table A-1.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-6-
TABLE A-1
EMISSION FACTORS
(pounds per million Btus)
SO
Oil
New
- turbine
- combined cycle
Existing
- steam
- turbine
- combined cycle
- steam
- turbine
Coal
ANSPS
NSPS
Existing
0.26
0.26
V
0.26
0.26
0.58
0.26
4/
8/
TSP
0.04
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.1
9/
NO
0.11
0.11
0.70
0.04 0.49
0.04 0.49
0.68
0.40
.75-^
I/ Varies by region; refer to Table A-2.
^/ Varies by Region; refers to Table A-3.
V Not permitted for these scenarios.
4/ Varies by scenario or state, whichever is more restrictive.
J3/ 0.6 for bituminous, 0.8 for lignite, 0.5 for subbituminous.
6/ 1.2 Ibs. or the state standard, whichever is more restrictive.
_?/ 0.8 Ibs. for lignite.
8/ Varies by region; refer to Table A-4.
9/ Varies by region; refer to Table A-5.
10/ 0.75 for bituminous, 0.89 for subbituminous, and 1.06 for lignite.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-7-
TABLE A-2
SO EMISSION FACTORS FOR EXISTING
OIL-FIRED STEAM PLANTS
(pounds per million btus)
Lbs. SO /MMbtu
MV 0.94
MC 0.94
NU 0.94
PJ 0.94
WP 0.94
WV 1.48
VM 1.48
CA 1.48
GF 1.48
SF 1.48
ON 0.74
OM 0.74
OS 0.74
MI 0.74
IL 0.74
IN 0.74
WI 0.74
EK 2.10
WK 2. 10
ET 2.10
WT 2.10
AM 2.10
DM 1.16
IA 1.16
MO 1.16
KN 1.16
AO 0.94
TX 0.94
MT 0.74
WY 0.74
CO 0.74
UT 0.74
NV 0.74
AZ 0.74
NM 0.74
WO 0.52
CN 0.52
CS 0.52
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-8-
TABLE A-3
TSP EMISSION FACTORS FOR EXISTING
OIL-FIRED STEAM PLANTS
(pounds per million btus)
Lbs. TSP/MMbtu
MV .08
MC .08
NU .08
PJ .08
WP .08
WV .11
VM .11
CA .11
GF .11
SF .11
ON . .07
OM .07
OS .07
MI .07
IL .07
IN .07
WI .07
EK .15
WK .15
ET .15
WT .15
AM .15
DM .09
IA .09
MO .09
KN .09
AO .08
TX .08
MT .07
WY .07
CO .07
UT .07
NV .07
AZ .07
NM .07
WO .05
CN .05
CS .05
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-9-
TABLE A-4
MV
MC
NU
PJ
WP
WV
VM
CA
GF
SF
ON
OM
OS
MI
IL
IN
WI
EK
WK
ET
WT
AM
DM
KN
IA
MO
AO
TX
ID
MT
WY
UT
NV
CO
AZ
NM
WO
CN
CS
MAXIMUM SO EMISSIONS FOR EXISTING
PLANTS WITH NO SCRUBBERS
(pounds SO per million btus )
Plant Category
> 12, 000 Heat Rate
1.66
1.2
3.36
3.36
3.36
1.66
1.66
-
-
3.36
3.36
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.2
5.0
-
-
-
-
1.66
3.36
3.36
5.0
6.0
-
-
1.66
-
1.66
-
1.2
-
-
-
SIP A
5.0
0.8
1.66
0.332
0.672
1.66
1.66
1.66
0.332
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.66
1.2
1.2
1.66
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.66
5.0
1.66
3.36
1.2
1.2
0.8
1.66
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.66
SIP B
_
1.2
3.36
1.66
1.66
3.36
3.36
3.36
1.66
1.66
3.36
3.36
1.66
1.66
3.36
3.36
3.36
1.66
3.36
3.36
1.66
3.36
3.36
-
3.36
-
3.36
_
1.2
1.66
-
1.2
-
-
3.36
SIP C
_
1.66
-
3.36
3.36
-
-
-
-
6.0
6.0
6.0
3.36
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
-
5.0
3.36
3.36
-
-
6.0
-
-
_
-
-
-
1.2
-
-
-
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-10-
TABLE A-5
TSP EMISSIONS FACTORS FOR
EXISTING COAL-FIRED PLANTS
(pounds per million btus)
Existing Plants Without Scrubbers Existing Plants
sgion
MV
MC
NU
PJ
WP
WV
VM
CA
GF
SF
ON
OM
OS
MI
IL
IN
WI
EK
WK
ET
WT
AM
DM
KN
IA
MO
AO
TX
UT
NV
AZ
NM
CO
MT
WY
WO
CN
CS
Old
.26
.10
.30
.11
.17
.09
.05
-
-
-
.10
.10
.10
.45
.11
.26
.51
-
-
-
-
.12
.60
.17
.70
.23
-
-
.17
-
-
-
.11
.31
.31
-
-
-
SIP A
.25
.20
.20
.10
.10
.12
.05
.12
.27
-
.10
.10
.10
.10
.10
.37
.26
.23
.12
.10
.10
.12
.10
.15
.48
.19
.20
.10
.17
.07
.10
.05
.10
.26
.19
.36
-
-
SIP B
.
.12
.18
.10
.20
.14
.05
.33
.11
-
.10
.11
.10
.22
.10
.43
.18
.22
.27
.11
.11
.15
.41
.15
-
.14
-
.30
.17
-
-
-
.10
-
.17
.36
-
-
SIP C
-
-
.10
.10
-
-
-
.24
-
.10
.10
.10
.30
.10
.33
.38
.14
.14
-
.10
.12
.78
-
-
.12
-
-
-
-
-
-
.11
-
-
-
-
-
With Scrubbers
_a
-
.24
.10
.10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.10
.24
-
1
.13
-
-
.12
-
.13
-
-
-
-
-
.17
.10
.05
-
.10
-
-
-
-
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
-11-
Levelized Costs Versus Present Value Costs
The forecast costs to utilities under each of the alternative new
source performance standards were calculated by the ICF model and presented
as levelized annual costs over the life of the generating unit. These
levelized costs properly reflect the relative present value costs of the
different alternatives and are related to the actual present value costs
by a constant factor. (The difference between the levelized costs fore-
cast by the model and the present value of future costs is always a single
multiplicative factor, which is the sum of the discount rates over the dis-
count period.) These levelized costs were made to reflect all of the
incremental costs (i.e., capital for new plants, and all fuel, operation,
and maintenance costs) incurred by utilities between the base year (1975)
and the case years evaluated (1985, 1990, 1995) by distributing the incre-
mental annual costs over the appropriate period. That is,
the levelized annual costs for 1985 were distributed
evenly between 1983 and 1985 (33-1/3% each year),
since 1983 is when the first new powerplants would be
subject to the alternative new source performance
standards.
the levelized annual costs for 1990 were decreased
by the annual costs estimated for 1985 to determine
only those incremental costs incurred between 1985 and
1990. These incremental costs were distributed evenly
(20 percent per year) over the five-year period between
1985 and 1990. The same procedure was used for the
1990 to 1995 period.
These annualized costs can be translated back into present value costs
by multiplying by the sum of the real discount factors; i.e., the same fac-
tor used to turn present value costs into annualized costs. These present
value costs would then be discounted back to 1978 using a nominal discount
rate of 10 percent, which is the discount rate used in the ICF model for all
utility costing.
For example, if the levelized annual costs in 1985 from the ICF model
were $300 million, the present value of these costs would be determined as
folVows:
spread the levelized annual costs over the appropriate
prior period:
1983 $100 million
1984 $100 million
1985 $100 million
ICF
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translate these annual costs into present value costs.
1983 $100 million x 16.748* = $1674.8 million
1984 $100 million x 16.748* = $1674.8 million
1985 $100 million x 16.748* - $1674.8 million
discount these present value costs to a single year (1978)
1983 $1674.8 million T (1.04265)"? = $1359 million
1984 $1674.8 million -f (1.04265)!? = $1303 million
1985 $1674.8 million t (1.04265) = $1250 million
Present Value Costs = $3192 million
(in 1978)
Percentage Change in Electricity Rates
The percentage change in electricity rates, which is reported with the
change in incremental annualized costs of electricity, was calculated by:
finding the difference in mills per kilowatt hour
between the base case and the case year, for each of
the alternative new source performance standards
evaluated, and
dividing this difference by the corresponding pro-
jected base case electricity rates (see Table A-6).
Overview
Probably the most significant of these changes was the change in the
sulfur content of Wyoming reserves. In correcting the error to maintain
consistency with the Bureau of Mines data, we simultaneously created an
inconsistency with most if not all Powder River coal producers, who report
very low sulfur contents for the Wyoming Powder River coal. The effect
of this change is to reduce the supply of low sulfur coal and the attrac-
tiveness of partial scrubbing. It is likely that more partial scrubbing
would have been forecast in the cases providing for floors above 0.2 pounds,
had this change not been made.
We judge that none of the other changes had a substantial effect on
the forecast variables.
SCRUBBER COSTS
Scrubber cost estimates were provided by PEDCo for alternative sulfur
emission limitations, coal-types, averaging periods, and confidence levels.
See Tables 1-15.
* The sum of the real discount factors for a 10 percent nominal discount rate
assuming 5.5 percent inflation rate (i.e., 1.10/1.055 = 1.04265 or approxi-
mately a 4.27 percent real discount rate).
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TABLE A-6
PROJECTED BASE CASE ELECTRICITY RATES
(mills/kwh in 1977 dollars)
Retjion 1985 1990 1995
Now England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East North Central
East South Central
West North Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacif Lc
National
46.424
42.729
33.936
35.661
33.936
36.952
40.926
27.547
32.656
36.897
49.953
45.089
35.884
38.555
35.884
37.420
44.810
31.287
34.515
39.345
53.748
47.593
37.943
41.683
37.943
37.899
49.062
35.539
36.518
41.961
SOURCE: PIES base case forecasts for President's energy plan.
ICF
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-14-
PEDCo Cost Estimates
Tables 1-5 are cost estimates assuming enforcement of standards on
annual average basis. Tables 6-10 contain estimates assuming 24-hour
average enforcement with three violations allowed per month. Tables 11-15
contain estimates assuming 24-hour average enforcement with no violations
allowed per month.
Averaging Periods and Confidence Levels
As specified by EPA, it was assumed that SIP's for existing plants,
the current NSPS (i.e., 1.2 pounds) for plants on-line through 1982, and
state standards for new plants more stringent than 1.2 pounds were all
enforced on an annual basis. Hence, scrubber costs from Tables 1-5 were
employed for these plants.
Also as specified by EPA, plants subject to ANSPS were assumed to be
subject to an 85 percent removal requirement enforced on a 24-hour average
basis with three violations per month allowed, unless a plant chose to com-
ply with the floor, an emission limitation that was enforced on a 24-hour
basis with no violations per month allowed. Hence, 85 pecent removal costs
from Tables 6-10 were employed for ANSPS units unless partial scrubbing
costs from Tables 11-15 were less expensive.
In the case of a state with an emission limitation for new plants more
stringent than 1.2 pounds, ANSPS plants had to comply with both the state
standards on an annual average basis and the assumed ANSPS standard. Where
85 percent removal was the least cost compliance option, the state standard
was treated as an annual average cap, where higher sulfur coals were elimi-
nated when 90 percent removal would not comply with the state standard.
Where partial scrubbing to a 24-hour average floor was the least cost com-
pliance option, partial scrubbing was permitted only if it simultaneously
met the annual average state standard as well. For example, partial
scrubbing to a 0.5 floor on a 24-hour basis was calculated to result in an
annual emmission rate of 0.32 pounds of sulfur dioxide per million btu's.
This would comply with the New Mexico standard of 0.34 but not the Wyoming
standard of 0.2.
Implementation in ICF Model
PEDCo reported that the scrubber cost estimates were reported in
mid-1980 dollars, assuming 7.5 percent inflation from mid-1976. The model
takes data inputs in beginning 1975 dollars. Hence, the PEDCo estimates
were deflated by a factor of 1.447 (1.075 (1976-1980) + 1.055 (mid-
1976 to beginning 1975) - 1.447).
ICF
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The capital costs (in $/kw), annual operations and maintenance (in
mills per kwh), energy penalty (%), and capacity penalty (%) were used as
specified by PEDCo. The fixed annual costs were not employed at all
because these are annualized capital charges which are computed within the
model.
No approximations or extrapolations were made, except that certain
additional cells were filled in. These were cells labeled "NA" by PEDCo
which apparently should not have been. For example, on Table 1 it would
be possible to comply with a 0.2 emission limitation by fully scrubbing
a 0.83 pounds of sulfur per million btu's (i.e., 1 minus 90 percent removal
times 2 x 0.83 pounds of sulfur per million btus = 0.166 pounds SO ).
PEDCo labelled this cell "NA." We filled it in with the cost of 85 per-
cent removal (which was calculated to be 85 percent removal on a 24-hour
average on long-term average sulfur content coal).
The capital costs were treated as a direct add-on to the capital cost
of the powerplant, except for existing plants where a retrofit charge of
$20 per kilowatt was added (where this charge was reduced proportionately
with capital costs where partial scrubbing was employed). The operations
and maintenance costs were treated as a direct add-on to the operations and
maintenance costs of the powerplant. The energy penalty was incorporated
by multiplying the heat rate by one plus the energy penalty. The capacity
penalty for existing plants was incorporated by reducing the effective
capacity of the plant (multiplying the capacity factor by one minus the
capacity penalty). For new plants, it was assumed additional capacity
would be built to compensate for the reduced effective capacity. Hence,
the capital costs of a new plant were increased by the product of the
capacity penalty times $600 per kw, a mid-range cost estimate of a new
coal-fired powerplant with a scrubber.
Comparison With Previous Estimates
The most recent partial cost estimates from PEDCo are compared in Table
16 with those used in the previous ANSPS forecasts (i.e., the forecasts
with the "initial" partial scrubbing estimates and then with the "revised"
estimates reported in Table C-48 of "Effects of Alternative New Source
Performance Standards for Coal-Fired Electricity Boilers on the Coal Markets
and on Utility Capacity Expansion Plans," (September 1978). The most
recent estimates are labelled "current."
The most recent partial scrubbing cost estimates from PEDCo are being
reviewed by EPA, DOE, and others. As of the date of this writing, there
are some preliminary indications that the partial scrubbing cost estimates
are understated.
Modeling of Floors
Alternative floors were modeled by comparing the costs of full-scrubbing
from Tables 6-10 with the cost of partial scrubbing to the specified floor
on Tables 11-15. For the coal-types whose partial scrubbing costs were esti-
ICF
INCORPORATED
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mates to be least costly, the partial scrubbing costs were provided. For
the coal-types where full scrubbing was estimated to be least costly, full
scrubbing costs were provided.
Modeling of Ceilings
This was done as reported in "Effects of Alternative New Source Perfor-
mance Standards for Coal-Fired Electric Utility Boilers on the Coal Markets
and on Utility Capacity Expansion Plans," September, 1978. A calculation was
made concerning whether fully-scrubbing a coal-type would comply with the
cap. Where it could, the option of fully-scrubbing the coal-type was provided.
Where it could not, that coal-type was prohibited from use in ANSPS plants.
The 1.2 pound ceiling without exemptions was modelled as having to
comply with the 1.2 pound limit with no violation (i.e., 3 RSD's) when
scrubber performance dropped to 75 percent removal. Hence, the maximum
average sulfur content of coal would be about 1.66 pounds of sulfur per
million btu's (i.e., 1.2 cap T 1.45 (3 RSD's) r 2 (pounds S02 per pound
sulfur) f .25 (one minus sulfur removal efficiency). This would eliminate
the two highest sulfur coal categories in the model (i.e., G coal at 1.67-2.5
pounds and H coal at 2.5-3.33).
The 1.2 pound ceiling with exemptions was modelled as having to comply
with the 1.2 pound limit 10 percent of time. An issue arises concerning
what sulfur removal efficiency and how many RSD's to use for this situation.
The answer in turn depends on the extent to which reduction of sulfur removal
efficiency is correlated with peak sulfur content in coal. If it were perfectly
correlated, the peak sulfur content would occur on the same day the sulfur
removal efficiency would drop below 85 pecent, causing the cap to be violated,
and hence one would want to use less than 1 RSD's from 85 percent to ensure
the cap was not violated on any other days. If it were not at all correlated,
the peak sulfur content would never occur when the removal efficiency dropped
below 85 percent, and one would want to use about 3 RSD's off of 85 percent.
EPA reports that the data indicate that sulfur removal efficiency is some-
what correlated with peak sulfur content and specified that the with exemp-
tions case should be modelled at 2 RSD's off of 85 percent removal.
Hence, the maximum average sulfur content of coal would be about 3.08
pounds of sulfur per million btu's (i.e., 1.2 r 1.3 T 2 f .15). Accordingly,
we eliminated the highest sulfur category in the model (H coal) which is
specified as being greater than 2.5 pounds. This will tend to overstate the
reserves that could not be consumed by ANSPS plants if the maximum average
sulfur content is 3.08 pounds and de facto will even overstate somewhat the
affect of 3 RSD's of confidence off of 85 percent removal (i.e., 1.2 T 1.45
* 2 * .15 - 2.76 pounds). This later treatment would be consistent with the
notions that the cap can and will be violated everytime removal efficiency
drops to 75 percent (e.g., 75 percent removal on average 2.5 pound coal will
violate the cap: 2.5 x 2 x .25 « 1.25 which exceeds 1.2), and hence coal
must be purchased so that the cap is never violated when the scrubber is
operating at 85 percent removal.
ICF
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TABLE 1
CAPITAL COSTS IN $/KW FOR A LIME FLUE GAS
DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW BOILER
BASED ON LONG TERM SULFUR CONTENT
Emission Limitation,
Lb. SO,,/10 Btu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
110.56
67.22*
35.93*
17.59*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
11 1.25
0.6
113.62
112.64
80.46*
57.19*
34.33*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
113.76
0.83
NA
115.74
114.59
85.88*
65.01*
31.77*
NA
NA
NA
NA
116.26
1.67
NA
NA
123.71
122.86
122.21
106.91*
68.34*
NA
NA
NA
123.71
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
129.51
127.78
115.43*
40.82*
NA
NA
129.72
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
134.27
132.42
75.41*
35.55*
NA
135.02
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
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TABLE 2
ANNUAL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COST IN MILLS/KWH
FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500
MW BOILER BASED ON LONG TERM SULFUR CONTENT
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average)
6 6
Lb. SO_/10 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
1.83
1.24*
0.72*
0.44*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.87
0.6
1.99
1.94
1.42*
1,08*
0.72*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.00
0.83
NA
2.12
2.05
1.64*
1.28*
0.69*
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.15
1.67
NA
NA
2.67
2.61
2.56
2.27*
1.51*
NA
NA
NA
2.67
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.15
3.00
2.75*
1.02*
NA
NA
3.17
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.59
3.41
2.00*
0.95*
NA
3.66
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
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TABLE 3
FIXED ANNUAL COSTS IN MILLS/KWH FOR A LIME FLUE
GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW BOILER BASED ON
LONG TERM SULFUR CONTENT
12mi.ssi.on Limitation,
G
l..b. SO /ID Utu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
6
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
Q.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
:>.ou
(>.67
85 % control
0.4
3.41
2.08*
1.11*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.43
0.6
3.51
3.48
2.49*
1.77*
1.06*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.52
0.83
NA
3.57
3.54
2.65*
2.01*
0.98*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.59
1.67
NA
NA
3.82
3.79
3.77
3.30*
2.11*
NA
NA
NA
3.82
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.00
3.95
3.57*
1.26*
NA
NA
4.01
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.15
4.09
2.33*
1. 10*
NA
4. 17
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 4
ENERGY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF NET PLANT
OUTPUT FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A
500 MW BOILER BASED ON LONG TERM SULFUR CONTENT
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
5.39
2.97*
1.42*
0.41*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.39
0.6
5.39
5.39
3.90*
1.68*
1.26*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.39
0.83
NA
5.39
5.39
4.03*
2.63*
1.06*
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.39
1.67
NA
NA
5.39
5.39
5.39
4.31*
2.54*
NA
NA
NA
5.39
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.39
5.39
4.50*
1.26*
NA
NA
5.39
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.39
5.39
2.54*
0.94*
NA
5.39
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 5
CAPACITY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF NET PLANT
OUTPUT FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A
500 MW BOILER BASED ON LONG TERM SULFUR CONTENT
Emission Limitation,
6
Lb. SO^/10 Btu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
6
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
3.34
1.84*
0.88*
0.25*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.6
3.34
3.34
2.42*
1.39*
0.78*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.83
NA
3.34
3.34
2.50*
1.63*
0.66*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
1.67
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
3.34
2.67*
1.58*
NA
NA
NA
3.34
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
2.79*
0.78*
NA
NA
3.34
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
1.58*
0.58*
NA
3.34
* Inil i.t:at.on parti, a.I scrubbing .
SOUKt.T,: I'KPCo Knv i.ronmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
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TABLE 6
CAPITAL COSTS IN S/KW FOR A LIME FLUE GAS
DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW BOILER
BASED ON 2 RSD SULFUR VARIABILITY (ASSUMED
90 % CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation,
6
Lb. SO^/10 Btu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
112.47
111.42
62.78*
35.54*
26.93*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
112.77
0.6
NA
115.10
113.91
68.87*
61.98*
27.89*
NA
NA
NA
NA
115.77
0.83
NA
NA
117.66
116.61
75.67*
60.08*
NA
NA
NA
NA
118.71
1.67
NA
NA
NA
127.35
126.76
124.91
80.50*
31.66*
NA
NA
127.44
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
133.67
131.81*
73.51*
33.96*
NA
134.52
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
139.79*
89.94*
52.86*
35.98*
141.08
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 7
ANNUAL OPERATION AND MAINTENAANCE COSTS IN MILLS/KWH
FOR A LIME FGD SYSTEM OR A 500 MW BOILER BASED ON 2
RSD VARIABILITY (ASSUMED 90% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. S00/106 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
1.86
1.78
1.08*
0.68*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.89
0.6
NA
1.97
1.90*
1.23*
1.08*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.03
0.83
NA
NA
2.09
2.02
1.40*
1.07*
0.57*
NA
NA
NA
2.18
1.67
NA
NA
NA
2.67
2.62
2.47
1.66*
0.66*
NA
NA
2.72
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.08
2.91
1.46*
0.71*
NA
3.24
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.51
2.17*
1.18*
0.75*
3.74
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 8
ANNUAL FIXED COSTS IN MILLS/KWH FOR A FGD
SYSTEM OR A 500 MW BOILER BASED ON 2 RSD
VARIABILITY (ASSUMED 90% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
fi 6
Lb. SO,Y10 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
3.48
3.44
1.94*
1.10*
0.83*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.49
0.6
NA
3.56
3.52
2.13*
1.92*
0.86*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.58
0.83
NA
NA
3.64
3.60
2.34*
1.86*
0.89*
NA
NA
NA
3.67
1.67
NA
NA
NA
3.94
3.92
3.86
2.49*
0.98*
NA
NA
3.94
2.50
NA
NA
NA -
NA
NA
4.13
4.07
2.27*
1.05*
NA
4.16
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.32
2.78*
1.63*
1.11*
4.36
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 9
ENERGY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF PLANT ENERGY
USAGE FOR A LIME FGD SYSTEM ON 500 MW BOILER BASED
ON 2 RSD VARIABILITY (ASSUMED 90% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
5.38
5.38
2.63*
1.36*
0.87*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
0.6
NA
5.38
5.38
2.89*
2.45*
0.87*
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
0.83
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
3.19*
2.24*
0.87*
NA
NA
NA
5.38
1.67
NA
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
5.38
3.10*
0.87*
NA
NA
5.38
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
2.45*
0.87*
NA
5.38
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
3.10*
1.62*
0.87*
5.38
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 10
CAPACITY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF PLANT OUTPUT
USAGE FOR A LIME FGD SYSTEM ON 500 MW BOILER BASED
ON 2 RSD VARIABILITY (ASSUMED 90% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. SO^/106 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
2
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
3.34
3.34
1.63*
0.84*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.6
NA
3.34
3.34
1.79*
1.52*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.83
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
1.98*
1.39*
0.54*
NA
NA
NA
3.34
1.67
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
3.34
1.93*
0.54*
NA
NA
3.34
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
1.52*
0.54*
NA
3.34
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
1.93*
1.00*
0.54*
3.34
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 11
CAPITAL COSTS IN $/KW FOR A LIME FLUE GAS
DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW BOILER
BASED ON 3 RSD VARIABILITY
(ASSUMED 90% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation,
6
Lb. SO^/10 Btu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
6
Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
113.34
112.33
67.35*
39.97*
33.01*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
113.56
0.6
NA
116.23
115.11
72.84*
67.49*
34.21*
NA
NA
NA
NA
116.67
0.83
NA
NA
118.99
118.00
78.85*
65.88*
34.86*
NA
NA
NA
119.79
1.67
NA
NA
NA
NA
128.85
127.11
98.71*
39.15*
NA
NA
129.17
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
136.41
134.64
80.77*
42.15*
NA
136.83
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
143.08
110.87*
78.99*
44.02*
143.83
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 12
ANNUAL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS IN MILLS/KWH
FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500
MW BOILER BASED ON 2 RSD VARIABILITY
(99.87% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation,
Lb. SO./10 Btu
Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average)
Lb. S/106 Btu
2
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
1.87
1.79
1.14*
0.73*
0.62*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.90
0.6
NA
1.99
1.92
1.28*
1.16*
0.62*
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.04
0.83
NA
NA
2.11
2.04
1.44*
1.15*
0.65*
NA
NA
NA
2.20
1.67
NA
NA
NA
2.70
2.65
2.50
1.90*
0.76*
NA
NA
2.75
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.12
2.95
1.55*
0.82*
NA
3.27
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.56
2.45*
1.53*
0.86*
3.78
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 13
FIXED ANNUAL COSTS IN MILLS/KWH FOR A LIME FLUE GAS
DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW BOILER BASED ON
3 RSD VARIABILITY (99.87% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
6 6
Lb. SO.,/10 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85* control
0.4
3.50
3.46
2.08*
1.23*
1.02*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.51
0.6
NA
3.59
3.56
2.25*
2.09*
1.06*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.60
0.83
NA
NA
3.68
3.64
2.44*
2.04*
1.08*
NA
NA
NA
3.70
1.67
NA
NA
NA
4.00
3.98
3.92
3.05*
1.21*
NA
NA
3.99
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.21
4.16
2.50*
1.30*
NA
4.22
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.42
3.43*
2.44*
1.36*
4.44
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 14
ENERGY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF NET PLANT OUTPUT
FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW
BOILER BASED ON 3 RSD VARIABILITY (99.87% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
6
Lb. S/10 Btu
" * MW f*
Heat
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
3.
5.
6.
Input
2
33
50
67
80
2
67
33
00
67
85% control
0.4
5.38
5.38
2.89*
1.61*
1.19*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
0.6
NA
5.38
5.38
3.10*
2.76*
1.19*
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
0.83
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
3.36*
2.54*
1.19*
NA
NA
NA
5.38
1.67
NA
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
5.38
4.15*
1.19*
NA
NA
5.38
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
5.38
2.76*
1.19*
NA
5.38
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
5.38
4.15*
2.45*
1.16*
5.38
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 15
CAPACITY PENALTY EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF NET PLANT OUTPUT
FOR A LIME FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEM ON A 500 MW
BOILER BASED ON 3 RSD VARIABILITY (99.87% CONFIDENCE)
Emission Limitation, Sulfur Content of Fuel (Long-Term Average),
Lb. SO /10 Btu Lb. S/10 Btu
Heat Input
0.2
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.80
1.2
1.67
3.33
5.00
6.67
85% control
0.4
3.34
3.34
1.79*
1.00*
0.74*
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.6
NA
3.34
3.34
1.93*
1.71*
0.74*
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
0.83
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
2.09*
1.58*
0.74*
NA
NA
NA
3.34
1.67
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
3.34
2.57*
0.74*
NA
NA
3.34
2.50
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
3.34
1.71*
0.74*
NA
3.34
3.33
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.34
2.57*
1.52*
0.72*
3.34
* Indicates partial scrubbing.
SOURCE: PEDCo Environmental
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
TABLE 16
COMPARISON OF PARTIAL SCRUBBING CAPITAL COST
ESTIMATES USED IN NSPS ANALYSIS
($/kw in 1975 $'s)
Emission Standards
Sulfur Level of Coal
(in Ib. SO /mmbtu) A_
0.50 Initial
Revised
Current**
0.67 Initial
Revised
Current**
0.80 Initial
Revised
Current**
1.20 Initial
Revised
Current**
B
61
41
45
47
35
27
0
0
22
0
0
0
D
77
57
77
75
51
51
47
38
45
0
0
23
83
72
80
81
67
79
75
58
53
47
49
44
F_
92*
90*
X
86
87
X
81
83
87
75
8
85
G H
96*
96*
X
96*
93*
X
92*
91*
X
81
86
92
X
X
X
X
108*
X
96*
97*
X
86
97*
X
* 90 percent removal scrubber required,
** 3 RSD's -- 24-hour averaging time.
Sulfur level definitions are:
A up to 0.4 Ib. S/mmbtu
0.60 Ib. S/mmbtu
0.83 Ib. S/mmbtu
B 0.41 to
D 0.61 to
F 0.85 to 1.67 Ibs. S/mmbtu
G 1.68 to 2.50 Ibs. S/mmbtu
H greater than 2.5 Is. S/mmbtu
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
DEMAND REGIONS
CENSUS REGIONS
MIDWEST
REST OF
WES
o
NORTH CENTRAL
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
AST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
-------
COAL SUPPLY REGIONS
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Regions
1. Northern Appalachi
2. Central Appalachi
3. Southern Appaiach
4. Midwes
5. Central Wes
6. Gul
7. Eastern
Great Plains
8. Western Norther
Great Plains
9. RocKie
10. Southwes
11. Northwes
12. Alaska (not shown
Legend
Bituminous
Subbituminous
Lignite
V Anthracite
PPALACHIA
Sub-Regions
. Appalachia
. Midwest
3. Northern Great Plains
Rest Of West
-------
D
a
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(106 Tons)
B. 1-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.0
124.1
Low
Sulfur
230. 1
15.5
214.6
89.1
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
354.1
143.5
210.6
0.2
30.0
1.0
27.0
3.7
High
Sulfur
169.5
69.6
99.9
68.6
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
753.8
228.6
525.1
157.9
96.0
1.5
29.8
73.3
322.4
415.9
249.8
1112.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.1-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(10 Tons)
Sector Metallurgical
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL 68. 8
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT 61.0
TOTAL 1 29 . 8
Low
Sulfur
431.8
11.5
420.3
184.3
-
0.2
2.6
2.7
621.8
Medium
Sulfur
422.0
251.8
170.2
0.3
31.2
0.5
33.2
3.8
491.1
High
Sulfur
158.8
61.1
97.7
91.5
-
-
20.0
9.3
279.6
Total
1012.6
324.4
688.2
276.1
100.1
0.7
55.9
76.8
1522.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(106 Tons)
B.1-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.8
64.1
135.9
Low
Sulfur
624.6
23.8
600.8
213.3
-
0. 1
1.0
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
440.0
297.5
142.5
-
32.4
0.3
50.4
4.0
High
Sulfur
191.5
98.4
93.2
107.6
-
-
35.9
9.7
Total
1256.1
419.7
836.4
320.9
104.2
0.4
87.3
80.6
841.8
527.1
344.7
1849.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
do3
1975
48.4
_
101.8
150.2
1,835.9
-
-
371.7
2,207.6
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,378.3
3,351.5
-
-
43.2
3,394.7
7,868.0
-
-
1,262.8
9,130.8
tons)
1985
187.2
_
193.8
381.0
1,523.4
82.5
62.3
355.3
2,023.5
3,152.7
243.4
127.3
703.0
4,226.4
2,362.2
236.8
197.7
102.8
2,899.6
7,225.5
562.7
387.3
1,354.9
9,530.4
1990
108.7
109.7
46.5
264.9
1,478.5
105.9
344.8
297.0
2,226.2
3,107.6
183.2
944.6
254.9
4,490.2
2,229.8
239.9
681.5
52.6
3,203.8
6,924.6
529.0
2,080.6
651.0
10,185.2
1995
84.5
115.9
2.7
203.1
1,231.5
107.5
941.6
12.8
2,293.4
2,822.7
246.4
1,830.0
117.3
5,016.4
2,098.0
230.5
1,151.2
46.9
3,526.6
6,236.7
584.4
4,038.7
179.7
11,039.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(103 tons)
B.2-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,771.8 5,063.2
401.1
57.3
103.4 118.4
6,885.2 5,640.0
1,491.5
41.4
1,532.9
1,889.9
349.8
70.2
49.9
2,359.7
4,612.8
410.2
279.8
50.9
1,779.9
322.8
275.6
33.4
2,411.8
4,261.0
397.0
659.2
35.4
5,353.8 5,352.6
1,627.0
374.0
520.8
38.4
2,560.1
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
9,263.3
144.8
8,408.1
6,953.1
750.9
127.5
168.3
6,392.7
733.0
555.4
84.3
5,888.0
771.0
1,180.0
73.8
7,999.8
7,765.4
7,912.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
203.7
209.0
150.6
700.7
263.9
734.5
412.7
1,849.6
150.6
687.3
1,160.6
247.1
2,245.6
62.4
700.6
1,575.3
280.6
2,618.9
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
332.9
25.2
358.1
374.1
164.0
128.7
24.4
334.0
165.4
500.0
9.1
319.2
156.3
788.4
11.4
691.3
1,008.6
1,275.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(103 tons)
B.2-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
47.6
148.1
81.5
17.5
2.0
149.6
38.3
16.4
89.2
93.3
195.7
250.6
237.2
37.8
17.5
306.4
47.1
408.8
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
380.5
173.3
455.6
181.5
130.7
174.1
372.3
181.8
589.2
102.4
553.8
941.8
1,245.7
357.0
173.8
1,094.8
58.5
1,684.1
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
16,915.4
1,789.9
14,784.8
2,195.8
909.5
2,431.7
13,804.2
2,131.0
4,385.9
1,084.8
12,544.0
2,229.7
7,888.8
592.7
18,705.3 20,321.7 21,442.0 23,255.2
Source for 1975 data:
EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(103 tons)
B.3-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
4.3
12.1
17.1
29.2
7.1
9.0
9.0
20.3
5.6
9.7
0.4
15.7
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
234.4
14.3
248.7
57.6
6.9
5.3
32.5
102.2
55.6
8.8
28.6
26.0
119.1
43.3
9.0
78.3
1.9
132.4
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
391.4
37.4
428.8
127.0
20.3
10.7
55.5
124.0
15.3
78.6
20.0
105.8
20.5
152.5
10.2
213.5
237.9
289.0
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 503.6
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1.9
Total 505.5
75.8
19.7
16.3
9.0
65.7
20.0
56.6
4.5
60.8
19.2
95.9
4.4
120.9
146.8
180.2
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,129.7
57.6
1,187 . 3
272.5
46.9
32.3
114.1
465.8
252.4
44. 1
172.8
54.6
523.9
215.5
48.7
336.3
16.9
616.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1
1
1
1
3
(10
1975
,430.5
-
-
8.6
,439.1
135.9
-
-
3.8
139.7
,566.4
-
-
12.4
,578.8
37.9
-
-
36.4
74.3
132.9
-
-
3.2
136. 1
tons)
1985
160.9
33.4
5.0
11.9
211.2
46.2
33.6
6.3
4.5
90.6
207.1
67.0
11.3
16.4
301.8
6.6
58.4
22.0
62.8
149.9
35.5
26.2
16.3
2.8
80.9
1990
146.4
34.7
30.0
5.2
216.2
42.2
31.2
28.3
3.2
104.9
188.6
65.9
58.3
8.4
321.2
6.6
57.3
96.6
21.3
181.8
30.8
26.2
51.3
1.2
109.5
1995
134.8
34.0
60.6
3.7
233.2
40.8
32.9
49.6
3.9
127.1
175.6
66.9
110.2
7.6
360.3
2.8
58.4
131.2
24.1
216.5
29.2
24.9
75.3
1.5
130.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(103 tons)
B.3-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.5
21.8
3.9
1.5
1.0
15.2
1.5
1.5
11.0
9.7
1.5
1.5
38.6
5.6
22.3
21.6
23.7
47.2
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
O1 I/Gas Plants
Total
133.4
25.0
158.4
39.5
27.7
17.3
18.0
32.3
27.7
62.3
10.9
102.5
133.2
30.7
26.4
113.9
7.0
178.0
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,867.5
131.4
2,998.9
525.7
200.0
82.9
211.5
1,020.0
480.1
194.8
390.3
95.3
1,160.5
424.4
200.3
692.0
55.6
1,372.4
Source for 1975 data:
EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO
(103 tons)
B.4-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.6
237.1
53.6
64.0
34.2
151.7
42.0
67.7
2.5
112.1
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 131.2
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 278.3
Total 409.5
431.6
48.1
36.4
270.6
417.2
61.8
201.2
233.1
324.5
62.7
549.4
21.7
786.6
913.3
958.3
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 831.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 425.2
Total 1,267.0
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
952.3
142.0
74.2
352.6
930.4
106.8
551.2
125.8
793.5
143.7
1,067.8
68.6
1,521.1
568.6
138.2
115.4
38.2
860.3
1,714.3
479.8
139.9
397.7
18.6
1,036.0
2,073.7
438.6
134.5
666.0
18.9
1,258.0
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,702.3
801.0
2,503.3
2,043.0
328.3
226.0
808.0
3,405.3
1,881.0
308.5
1,214.1
411.7
3,824.3
1,598.6
340.9
2,350.9
111.7
4,402.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD of 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3 1,202.2 1,088.6 1,010.0
NSPS - 233.9 242.7 238.1
ANSPS - 34.7 169.4 425.4
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3 118.3 50.1 35.6
Total 2,093.6 1,589.2 1,550.9 1,709.1
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9 312.0 280.6 268.1
NSPS - 238.9 223.6 236.1
ANSPS - 44.7 200.8 344.9
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7 34.4 24.2 26.6
Total 610.6 630.1 729.1 875.7
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total 2,704.2 2,219.1 2,280.0 2,584.8
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 106.7 66.3 66.3 26.5
NSPS - 423.7 415.9 423.7
ANSPS - 166.1 700.0 943.4
Oil/Gas Plants 757.3 549.0 186.4 211.4
Total 864.0 1,205.1 1,368.7 1,604.9
MOUNTAIN
Coal Plants
Existing 344.0 296.3 259.6 245.7
NSPS - 183.7 183.1 174.4
ANSPS - 115.2 359.6 527.7
Oil/Gas Plants 73.8 21.6 8.4 10.2
Total 417.8 616.8 810.7 958.0
2,403.2
-
-
301.0
1,514.2
472.8
79.4
152.7
1,369.2
466.3
370.2
74.3
1,278.1
474.2
770.3
62.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD BF 1 .2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU FLOOR
(103 tons)
B.4-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 44.7 35.0 13.6 13.6
NSPS - 10.2 10.2 10.2
ANSPS - 6.9 76.4 271.6
Oil/Gas Plants 276.3 191.4 117.1 52.9
Total 321.0 243.6 217.3 348.4
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 388.7 331.3 273.2 259.3
NSPS - 193.9 193.3 184.6
ANSPS - 122.1 436.0 799.3
Oil/Gas Plants 350.1 212.9 125.4 63.1
Total 738.8 860.4 1,027.9 1,306.3
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
4,600.8
2,209.4
6,811.2
3,954.8
1,418.8
593.6
1,722.8
7,690.0
3,589.7
1,384.0
2,720.3
797.9
8,491.9
3,162.5
1,423.4
4,863.9
448.6
9,898.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF
1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.5-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
9.3
9.3
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
16.2
10.5
4.0
1.7
5.7
5.8
3.3
31.0
21.3
9.6
3.9
7.8
2.6
9.8
3.4
37.1
26.3
8
4
13
1.7
13.5
3.4
45.0
.5
.0
.8
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
52.3
18.4
18.7
10.6
56.6
7.0
26.4
9.2
58.4
3.8
30.0
7.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
East North Central 0.371 0.377
West North Central 0.289 0.135
MIDWEST 0.606 0.512
West South Central 2.162 1.591 0.548
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.591 0.548
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS/MMBTU
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975 1985 1990 1995
New England 0.425 0.464 0.109 0.018
Middle Atlantic 0.824 0.942 0.694 0.091
South Atlantic 1.010 1.212 0.427 0.279
East South Central 0.112 0.233 0.109 0.129
2.371 2.851 1.339 0.517
0.249
0.787
1.036
6.175
0.106
0.632
0.738
5.693
0.053
0.409
0.462
2.628
0.064
0.249
0.313
1.713
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.10-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(10 tons)
1975
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
1985
177.9
221.1
21.6
420.6
1990
245.6
202.9
16.2
464.7
1995
308.9
199.4
15.0
523.3
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST 138.6 222.4 275.4 331.5
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5 23.1 28.9 43.5
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2 299.4 558.1 771.8
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7 322.5 587.1 815.3
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
TOTAL 634.6
8.2
57.7
46.2
35.0
3.7
8.8
68.9
54.2
61.9
3.7
16.2
61.8
60.6
55.7
1.0
150.9
197.6
195.1
1,116.5 1,524.6 1,865.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.11-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LB. SO /MMBTU
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
19.1
73.0
85.5
0.4
177.9
31.9
74.4
138.7
0.6
245.6
40.2
86.4
181.6
0.6
308.9
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
93.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
133.9
12.6
54.4
20.2
144.7
4.2
33.7
20.3
154.2
-
20.9
24.3
211.1
221.1
202.9
199.4
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
22.9
5.1
12.0
4.5
6.2
4.5
5.5
7.2
1.7
6.1
21.6
16.2
15.0
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
158.0
85.6
151.9
25.1
182.9
78.6
176.8
26.4
201.7
86.4
207.6
27.6
392.1
420.6
464.7
523.3
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.0
138.6
159.3
62.2
1.0
222.4
196.8
77.5
1.1
275.4
249.5
80.9
1.1
331.5
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur 0.3
Medium Sulfur 7.8
Low Sulfur 0.4
Total . 8.5
0.3
20.1
2.7
23.1
0.3
22.5
6.1
28.9
33.1
10.4
43.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REX"ICWAT, OOAT. PRODUCTION MNPKK (I'.-iil M)
CURRENT STANDARD OK 1.2 LBS. SO /MMMTU
6
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
84.5
215.0
299.4
127.7
430.4
558.1
173.6
598.2
771.8
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
.3
15.4
38.0
53.7
0.3
104.5
217.7
322.5
0.3
150.2
436.6
587.1
206.6
608.7
815.3
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
.3
8.4
.8
-
0.3
5.7
1.5
0.7
0.4
4.6
2.9
1.0
0.8
9.2
5.0
1.2
9.5
8.2
8.8
16.2
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
68.9
68.9
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Ixiw Sulfur
Total
2.9
.8
10.3
14.0
4.0
8.7
33.5
4.2
8.7
41.3
1.9
13.0
45.6
46.2
54.2
60.6
Southwest.
Metallurgical
IILyli Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
15.7
16.0
19.0
35.0
16.9
45.0
61.9
3.0
52.7
55.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.11-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER (Cont'd)
CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.7
.8
4.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
1.0
1.0
REST OF WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
26.7
11.6
50.0
4.3
5.7
87.6
53.2
150.9
4.6
4.6
101.1
87.3
197.6
2.7
9.2
83.7
99.6
195.1
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
162.3
250.9
406.3
297.0
1,116.5
187.5
280.2
505.6
551.4
1,524.6
204.4
737.0
578.8
345.1
1,865.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Su 1 f ur
Total
$/10 btu)
(1978 §'s)
1985
0.95
1.12
1.59
1.11
0.94
1.20
1.56
1990
1.10
1.22
1.78
1.27
1.19
1.41
1.76
1995
1.16
1.32
1.96
1.36
_
1.58
1.90
1.47
1.71
1.88
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.21
1.60
1.40
1.41
1.79
1.67
1.59
1.92
1.87
Midwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.93
1.31
1.62
1.04
1.08
1.44
1.81
1.19
1.17
1.53
1.91
1.26
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.46
Total 0.42
0.42
0.42
0.50
0.44
0.42
0.61
0.47
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.91
1.09
1.03
0.99
1.20
1.13
1.13
1.35
1.26
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-blturn!nous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.41
0.52
0.49
0.41
0.53
0.50
0.43
0.61
0.57
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SUPPLY PRICES UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'S)
1985 1990
B.12-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.01
1.29
1.51
1.14
1.18
1.39
1.62
1.34
1.26
1.51
1.76
1.42
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.02
1.02
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.00
1.28
1.28
1.06
1.22
1.25
1.25
1.42
1.40
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.41
1.02
1.04
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.85
0.85
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.76
1.03
1.09
1.07
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF
1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(Quadrillion Btus)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 0.047
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.076
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.789
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.328
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.171
0.154
0.326
0.134
0.127
0.045
0.305
0.260
0.973
0.160
1.392
0.669
1.965
0.523
3.157
1.069
0.671
0.501
0.162
1.369
0.332
1.864
0.610
2.411
1.340
4.361
1.123
0.527
1.200
0.169
1.659
0.785
2.614
1.440
2.640
1.497
5.577
1.177
0.624
1.717
2.241
2.850
3.518
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
4.239
2.066
4.461
2.872
9.399
East North Central
High Sulfur
Med.ium Sulfur
Sulfur-
Total
2.670
1.254
1.612
1.354
4.221
1.199
1.680
1 .712
4.592
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.406
0.705
0.610
1.721
0.368
0-706
0.959
2.033
1.352
0.763
0.353
2.468
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF - cont'd.
1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
(Quadrillion Btus)
1975
1985
1990
1995
MIDWEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
1.622
2.318
2.313
6.254
7.060
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
0.810
1.372
2.167
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.684
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
3.688
9.052
8.571
21.312
4.473
9.584
12.290
26.347
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF
1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.30
1.99
1.32
1.44
1.58
1.50
1.49
1.65
2.52
1.71
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Went South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.15
1.45
1.96
1.45
1.08
1.35
1.56
2.15
1.65
1.14
0.94
1.50
1.26
1.42
1.64
2.37
1.85
1.16
1.60
1.89
1.56
1.11
1.53
1.71
1.44
1.14
1.47
1.77
1.38
1.06
1.01
1.17
1.38
1.72
2.12
1.79
1.27
1.62
1.78
1.57
1.29
1.65
1.64
1.50
1.21
1.03
1.19
1.47
1.77
2.25
1.82
1.35
1.72
1.86
1.67
1.38
1.80
1.69
1.60
1.29
1.05
1.26
1.20
1.32
1.60
1.50
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF
1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Mountai n
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.54
0.89
0.74
1.04
1.01
1.02
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.04
1.14
1.12
1.30
1.41
1.56
1.45
1.19
1.32
1.31
1.40
1.56
1.63
1.57
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1=>85 USE OF WESTERN COAL
'j'.'-zz? rc?-?zyr STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. sc /MUST.'
<106 tons)
vesterr. Coal Cor.simeri jj. the Hest
Metallurgical
Industrial
Metallurgical 0.1
Residential/
Comiaercial -
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Total
Total C. 1
Bituzir.ous Subbituau.r.ous Lignite Total Metal lurgica.
3.6 - - 3
0
0.3 - - 0
.
30.1 15.5 - 45
14.9 5.8 - 20
3.6 - 3
45.0 24.9 - 69
.
49.0 24.9 - 73
.6
.1 4.8
.3
-
.6
.7
.6
.9
0.4
.9 5.2
Bituminous
1 j
2
0
-
22
34
-
57
3
76
.3
.6
.2
.7
.4
.2
.1
.3
Subbi tu3Linous Lignite Total
64.9 - 78
- 7
0
9.7 17.7 27
37.7 16.0 76
110.2 47.1 191
8.5 - 8
156.4 63.1 276
3
230.9 80.8 393
. 1
.4
.2
.4
.4
.7
.5
.6
.5
.2
Total
81.
7.
0.
27.
122.
212.
12.
346.
3.
467.
8
4
b
4
1
3
2
6
5
1
o
o
o
a
o
o
3
O)
flf D H
v£> PI
~4 1-0
00 ft
m
0
-------
1990 DSE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1 . 2 LflS.
( 10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical
Industrial
Metallurgical 0.7
Residential/
Coomcrcial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Total
Tota 1 0.7
Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical
6.4 - - 6.
0.
0.1 - - 0.
-
28.1 12.0 - 40.
18.5 77.8 - 96.
5.7 - 5.
46.6 95.4 - 142.
_ _ _
53.1 95.4 - 149.
4
7 5.4
1
-
0
3
7
0
0.4
2 5.8
Bituminous
13
2
0
1
15
80
-
96
3
117
.2
.6
. 1
.9
.9
.7
.5
.2
.5
Subbituminous
156.8
-
"
23.8
32.1
192.9
B.S
233.5
-
414.1
Lignite Total
169
8
0
12.2 37
16.3 64
69.3 342
8
85.7 415
3
97.8 635
.9
.0
.9
.3
.9
.5
.7
.6
.3
Total
176
8
37
104
439
14
.3
.7
.9
.3
. 1
.2
557.6
3
784
.6
.4
o
O (D
ft M
z
o
o
30
s
a
a
VO (D
-J l-h
00 ft
m
o
-------
1995 USE OF WESTERS COfvi.
VS'DEP CURRENT STA-VEARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMSTJ
(1C6 tons)
Western Coal Cc-S'jaed 1.1 the East
Western Coai Consumed i.-. the West
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous
Industrial
Metalluryical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
9.4 - - 9.4
- - 5.3
0.1 - - 0.1
.
21.4 11.1 - 32.5
22.0 141.0 - 163.0
4.9 - 4.9
43.3 157.0 - 200.4
- - 0.5
52.6 157.0 - 209.8 5.7
16.
2.
0.
4.
15.
85.
-
101.
3.
128.
8
5
1
5
9
6
7
3
8
Subbitun>- nous Lignite Total
181.7
-
-
37.9
32.3
300.0
8.6
340.9
_
560.6
198
7
0
12.3 54
8.0 56
85.0 470
8
93.0 535
3
105.3 800
.5
.8
. 1
.8
.2
.7
.6
.5
.8
.3
Total
207
7
0
54
88
633
13
735
3
'., 010
.9
.8
. 1
.8
.7
.a
.4
.9
.8
. 3
o
o
o
3
-o
o
3J
O 0)
ft M
(T> P-
(D 3
H 0>
vO PI
-O H)
00 ft
m
O
-------
WESTERN COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF
1.2 LBS. So /MMBtu
New
England
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(106 tons)
Consuming Region
Middle South East North
Atlantic Atlantic Central
1985
_
35.05
18.33
53.38
1990
- - -
59.27
19.50
78.77
1995
_
84.28
17.33
East South
Central
1.22
22.30
-
23.52
2.03
68.37
-
70.40
1.30
106.94
-
Total
1.22
57.3S
18. ii
76.91
2.12
\27.Zl
19.5.1
149.'-
1.31
191.21
17.il
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf - ~ ~ *b
^ Eastern Northern Great Plains _ _ _ - t?
^I Western Northern Great Plains
± Rockies - 17.33 - 17.21 g g
g Southwest - - - ~ ~ ~ _. »< c>
3) Northwest - - ~ ~ ~ o
Total 101.61 108.24 209.f£
a
o
oo rf
-------
B.17-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975 1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal**
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
37.2 98.5 (66.9)
183.6 312.4 (60.2)
197.9 (61.1)
79.5 (59.6)
35.0 (56.3)
167.3 (66.9)
451.0 (55.1)
197.9 (55.8)
81.5 (56.2)
171.6 (53.9)
230.0 (66.9)
587.4 (51.9)
197.9 (47.9)
82. 1(57.4)
307.4 (53.1)
192. 1
147.3
2.7
42. 1
68.3
482.8
222.0 (25.9)
144.7
4.8
72.5
84.4 (44.9)
717.3 (48.4)
165.4 (14.9)
105.5
4.8
55.1
87.8 (44.0)
871.5 (48.4)
151.2 (9.8)
71.8
4.8
74.7
89.5 (43.5)
1,058.1 (48.5)
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
8
38
40
14
14
44
31
12
19
52
19
10
22
56
14
8
* Effective capacity.
** Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.18-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
(109 $'s)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1985
1990
1995
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
148
5
105
6
0
266
.7
62.7
75.9
52
23
10.1
0
9
.3
.0
( 61.3)
(114.5)
.9 (79.5)
.0 (35.0)
(38.8)
.9 (2.1)
.2 (36.7)
.8 (81.6)
3
1
2
.3
. 1
.0 (39.7)
.1 (10.7)
.7 (31.2)
1,022.8
665
657
662
428
250
260
75
102
86
83
.4
.1
.9
.6
.7
.3
.6
.8
.5
.3
311.9
132.6
168.9
54
114
10.4
0
9
6.9
176.2
10.2 (
3
3
3
0.3
505.5
1,019.2
665
669
667
428
250
259
77
86
79
80
(130.1)
(253.1)
.2 { 81.5)
.8 (171.6)
(40.1)
.9 (2.1)
.5 (38.0)
126.1)
.1 (40.2)
.8 (44.2)
.3 (41.7)
.0
.0
.3
.6
.0
.4
.1
.0
.1
.9
472.1
196.9
262.7
54
208
12.5
0
11
8.4
265.7
16.2 (
3
8
3
0.3
762.7
1,021.2
665
677
674
428
250
257
79
99
74
87
(
(
.6
.1
(
.9
.6
102.8)
389.5)
(82.1)
(307.4)
48.5)
(2.1)
(46.4)
109.7)
.6
.9
.7
.0
.0
.4
.6
.0
.7
.6
.4
.6
.9
(45.2)
(98.5)
(49.6)
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
O. J.3-J.
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1 .2 LBS. SC>2/MMBTU
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 (%)
1990 (%)
1995 (%)
New England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
3.315 (79.9) 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
3.623 (66.2) 4.279 (66.0)
3.315 (79.9) 3.315 (79.8) 3.315 (79.8)
3.623 (66.2) 4.279 (66.0)
2.245 (90.0) 2.245 (90.0) 2.728 (90.0)
4
2
7
2
.837
.427
.082
.427
(34
(56
(51
(56
.2)
.9)
.9)
.9)
4
3
5
3
5
.953
.077
.001
.077
.001
(34
(46
(63
(46
(63
.6)
.9)
.6)
.9)
.6)
4
3
5
3
5
.461
.077
.875
.077
.875
(36.
(64.
(58.
(64.
(58.
5)
1)
0)
1)
0)
2.555 (90.0) 2.555 (90.0) 2.555 (90.0)
8.884 (48.60 14.143 (48.4) 18.387 (47.4)
1.931 (59.0) 2.000 (59.6) 6.962 (40.4)
7.544 (44.6) 28.529 (68.7)
11.439 (57.8)
1.931 (59.0)
16.698 (54.8) 20.942 (52.6)
2.000 (59.6) 6.962 (40.4)
7.544 (44.6) 28.529 (68.7)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 (%)
1990 (%)
1995 {%)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.619 (76.0)
6.171 (58.3)
2.985 (76.0)
0.619 (76.0)
6.171 (58.3)
2.985 (76.0)
3.410 (40.9)
6.170 (60.4)
4.770 (57.6)
3.410 (40.9)
6.170 (60.4)
4.770 (57.6)
4.689 (37.4)
6.168 (65.2)
9.868 (39.4)
4.689 (37.4)
6.168 (65.2)
9.868 (39.4)
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800 (90.0)
17.655 (51.5)
10.529 (58.1)
2.985 (76.0)
22.455 (59.7)
10.529 (58.1)
2.985 (76.0)
4.800 (90.0)
25.821 (48.8)
11.247 (56.6)
20.938 (55.8)
30.621 (55.3)
11.247 (56.6)
20.938 (55.8)
4.800 (90.0)
30.852 (47.8)
16.207 (54.3)
48.551 (61.2)
36.135 (54.0)
16.207 (54.3)
48.551 (61.2)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
3.335 (59.8)
9.199 (37.7)
0.078 (76.0)
3.335 (59.8)
9.199 (37.7)
0.078 (76.0)
5.747 (49.2)
8.593 (39.5)
0.077 (76.0)
5.747 (49.2)
8.593 (39.5)
0.077 (76.0)
8.116 (38.2)
9.016 (46.7)
1.281 (30.6)
8.116 (38.2)
9.016 (46.7)
1.281 (30.6)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1 .2 LBS. SO^MMBTU
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 (%)
1990 (%)
1995 (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.588 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
0.588 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
3.923 (55.8)
14.200 (34.2)
0.078 (76.0)
3.923 (55.8)
14.200 (34.2)
0.078 (76.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
4.145 (64.1)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
4.145 (64.1)
0.586 (33.2)
5.470 (27.7)
0.586 (33.2)
5.470 (27.7)
6.333 (47.7)
14.063 (34.9)
0.077 (76.0)
6.333 (47.7)
14.063 (34.9)
0.077 (76.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.641 (60.6)
16.800 (45.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.641 (60.6)
16.800 (45.0)
0.582 (33.2)
5.467 (27.7)
0.866 (27.7)
0.582 (33.2)
5.467 (27.7)
0.866 (27.7)
8.698 (37.9)
14.483 (39.5)
2.147 (29.4)
8.698 (37.9)
14.483 (39.5)
2.147 (29.4)
1.110 (64.0)
5.639 (60.6)
16.799 (45.0)
1.109 (64.0)
5.639 (60.6)
16.799 (45.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 (%)
1990 (%)
1995 (%)
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632 (90.0)
3.687 (28.4)
6.681 (43.0)
3.160 (54.8)
3.687 (28.4)
9.313 (56.3)
3.160 (54.8)
2.829 (90.0)
0.329 (90.0)
3.680 (28.4)
6.481 (42.5)
5.025 (59.9)
3.680 (28.4)
9.310 (56.9)
5.354 (61.7)
2.934 (90.0)
0.328 (90.0)
2.670 (28.3)
5.977 (41.8)
4.182 (60.9)
3.670 (28.3)
8.911 (57.7)
4.510 (63.0)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.331 (83.3)
0.331 (83.3)
1.044 (54.0)
1.044 (54.0)
7.455 (75.5)
7.455 (75.5)
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632 (90.0)
3.687 (28.4)
6.681 (43.0)
3.491 (57.5)
3.687 (28.4)
9.313 (56.3)
3.491 (57.5)
2.829 (90.0)
0.329 (90.0)
3.680 (28.4)
6.481 (42.5)
6.398 (60.4)
3.680 (28.4)
9.310 (56.9)
6.727 (61.8)
2.934 (90.0)
0.328 (90.0)
3.670 (28.3)
5.977 (41.8)
11.965 (70.8)
3.670 (28.3)
8.911 (57.7)
9.239 (58.8)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 1 .2 LBS. SC>2/MMBTU
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 (%)
1990 (%)
1995 (%)
NATIONAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800 (90.0)
2.632 (90.0)
26.375 (49.4)
37.055 (46.6)
10.699 (65.3)
31.175 (55.7)
39.687 (49.5)
10.699 (65.3)
4.800 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
0.329 (90.0)
36.944 (47.0)
37.432 (46.6)
43.884 (52.1)
41.744 (52.0)
40.261 (49.6)
44.213 (52.4)
5.284 (90.0)
2.934 (90.0)
0.328 (90.0)
44.330 (44.6)
42.306 (48.3)
89.134 (58.2)
49.614 (49.4)
45.240 (51.0)
89.462 (58.3)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.0
124.1
Low
Sulfur
200.3
17.0
183.2
88.8
-
0.4
-
2.7
292.2
Medium
Sulfur
374.4
162.7
211.8
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.8
3.7
436.0
High
Sulfur
177.6
77.1
100.5
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
258.0
Total
752.3
256.8
495.5
157.6
96.0
1.5
29.5
73.3
1110.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.8
Low
Sulfur
225.3
42.8
182.5
184.9
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
544.0
343.2
200.8
0.5
31.3
0.5
33.0
3.9
High
Sulfur
222.2
124.2
98.0
92.3
-
-
20.4
9.2
Total
991.5
510.3
481.2
277.6
100.1
0.7
56.1
76.9
415.8
613.2
244.1
1502.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.8
64.1
135.8
Low
Sulfur
267.8
85.6
182.2
213.7
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
489.8
Medium
Sulfur
702.9
517.8
185.1
0.7
32.4
0.3
46.7
4.0
787.0
High
Sulfur
299.6
205.0
94.6
107.1
-
-
36.6
9.7
452.9
Total
1270.3
808.4
461.8
321.5
104.2
0.4
88.5
80.7
1865.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101 .8
150.2
187.2
193.8
143.8
108.3
96.2
42.2
8.8
381.0
252.0
147.2
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9 1,523.6 1,468.7 1,403.9
69.6 72.4 90.8
19.5 130.8 271.4
371.7 364.0 297.6 49.4
2,207.6 1,976.8 1,969.4 1,815.6
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,157.5
191.9
80.9
697.9
3,111.1
190.5
347.7
303.0
2,904.3
280.2
608.1
169.5
3,378.3
4,128.2
3,952.3
3,962.1
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,366.4 2,246.0 2,156.5
NSPS - 232.5 253.0 268.8
ANSPS - 84.5 229.2 394.1
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 106.0 53.2 . 46.9
Total 3,394.7 2,789.3 2,781.4 2,866.3
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,868.0
1 ,262.8
9, 130.8
7,234.7
494.0
184.9
1,361.7
9,275.3
6,969.6
515.9
707.7
762.1
8,955.3
6,560.9
639.8
1,315.8
274.6
8,791.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1975 1985
6,771.8 5,044.1
408.9
14.2
103.4 120.9
6,885.2 5,588.1
1,491.5 1,867.6
417.6
8.6
41.4 58.6
1,532.9 2,352.5
1990
1995
8,263.3
144.8
8,408.1
203.7
209.0
412.7
322.9
25.2
358.1
6,911.7
826.5
22.8
179.5
7,940.6
150.6
700.7
87.7
734.5
1,673.4
373.3
173.1
22.7
24.4
593.5
4
5
1
2
6
7
1
,652.5
455.1
129.4
80.3
,317.4
,813.3
403.1
39.0
38.1
,293.5
,465.8
858.2
168.4
118.4
,610.9
150.6
700.5
239.4
404.6
,495.0
358.2
172.8
95.1
20.6
4,440.7
458.2
318.0
35.4
5,252.3
1,672.7
386.4
97.2
39.6
2,195.9
6,113.4
844.6
415.2
75.0
7,448.2
62.4
685.4
423.5
280.6
1,451.9
291.7
175.8
173.0
11.4
646.6
651.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 81.5 38.3 34.7
NSPS - 12.3 12.2 12.0
ANSPS - 1.2 11.8 32.7
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 160.1 96.2 47.1
Total 195.7 255.1 158.5 126.5
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 454.8 396.5 326.4
NSPS - 185.4 185.0 187.8
ANSPS - 23.9 106.9 205.7
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 184.5 116.8 58.5
Total 553.8 848.6 805.2 778.4
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,751.8 13,982.4 13,062.6
NSPS - 2,206.6 2,259.5 2,357.5
ANSPS - 319.3 1,222.4 2,360.3
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 2,460.2 1,401.8 688.7
Total 18,705.3 19,737.8 18,866.1 18,469.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 0.3 12.1 10.4 5.8
NSPS -
ANSPS - - ~ 2'7
Oil/Gas Plants 4.0 17.1 9.3 0-9
Total 4.3 29.2 19.8 9.4
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 234.4 57.6 52.9 48.1
NSPS - 5.8 6.0 7.6
ANSPS - 1.4 10.3 22.5
Oil/Gas Plants 14.3 33.3 26.1 5.0
Total 248.7 98.0 95.3 83.2
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 391.4 127.3 121.6 110.7
NSPS - 16.0 15.9 23.4
ANSPS - 4.9 24.4 43.1
Oil/Gas Plants 37.4 55.1 23.7 14.1
Total 428.8 203.2 185.5 191.3
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 503.6
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1.9
Total 505.5
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,129.7 273.1 252.4 228.4
NSPS - 41.2 43.0 53.4
ANSPS - 11.4 51.1 95.9
Oil/Gas Plants 57.6 114.8 63.6 24.4
Total 1,187.3 440.5 346.5 402.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,430.5 161.6 152.1 140.2
NSPS - 34.1 37.9 39.9
ANSPS - 0.9 7.8 19.1
Oil/Gas Plants 8.6 12.2 8.2 3.7
Total 1,439.1 208.7 206.0 202.8
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 135.9
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 3.8
Total 139.7
45.7
36.1
1.0
5.3
43.2
35.2
4.2
3.7
41.6
35.7
9.9
4.0
88.1
86.3
91.2
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,566.4
-
-
12.4
207.3
70.2
1.9
17.5
195.3
73.1
12.0
11.9
294.0
75.6
29.0
7.7
1,578.8
296.8
292.3
294.0
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
37.9
36.4
6.6
58.4
6.8
62.9
6.6
58.4
25.1
34.7
2.8
58.4
41.6
24.2
74.3
134.7
124.8
126.9
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSI'S
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
132.9
3.2
136.1
35.6
27.3
4. 1
2.8
69.8
33.5
27.1
14.3
2.3
77.2
29.7
28.3
22.6
1.5
81.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 0.5 4.0 1.5 1.5
NSPS -
ANSPS ~ U
-------
r
B.4-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 26.9 90.5 78.2
NSPS -
ANSPS -
Oil/Gas Plants 64.1 146.6 80.1
Total 91.0 237.1 158.3
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 131.2
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 278.3
Total 409.5 777.0 878.1
43.8
54.0
7.0
104.8
431.6
40.6
27.4
277.4
396.8
42.2
205.5
233.6
360.8
53.0
450.8
49.0
913.6
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 831.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 425.2
Total 1,267.0
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,703.3
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 801.0
Total 2,503.3
954.5
111.9
97.1
350.3
911.9
111.1
487.3
151.0
830.5
163.5
861.7
93.6
1,513.8
570.6
135.6
101.4
39.3
846.9
2,047.2
288. 1
225.9
813.6
3,374.8
1,661.3
493.5
147.6
302.4
18.8
962.2
1,880.4
300.9
995.2
483.5
3,660.0
1,949.2
461.6
156.8
512.5
18.9
1,149.8
1,696.7
373.3
1,879.0
168.5
4, 117.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2XLBS. S02/MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3 1,203.7 1,131.1 1,039.1
NSPS - 238.5 265.5 279.0
ANSPS - 17.1 155.2 382.1
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3 122.6 81.4 35.6
Total 2,093.6 1,581.9 1,633.2 1,735.9
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9 308.1 284.9 262.2
NSPS - 257.4 252.1 256.0
ANSPS - 16.6 77.5 184.1
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7 39.4 26.3 27.4
Total 610.6 621.5 640.8 739.6
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,403.2
-
-
301.0
1,511.8
495.9
33.7
162.0
1,416.0
517.6
232.7
107.7
1,301.3
535.0
566.2
63.0
2,704.2
2,203.4
2,274.0
2,465.5
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
106.7
-
159.2
757.3
66.3
423.7
158.5
549.0
66.3
423.6
523.6
303.6
27.5
423.6
787.6
211.4
864.0
1,197.5
1,317.1
1,450.0
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 344.0
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 73.8
Total 417.8
293.6
191.1
77.6
21.6
277.9
190.0
257.0
19.3
249.5
191.0
396.2
10.3
583.9
744.2
846.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO_/MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
no3
1975
44.7
276.3
321.0
388.7
350.1
738.8
4,600.8
2,209.4
6,811.2
tons)
1985
35.0
10.2
5.9
204.5
255.6
328.6
201.3
83.6
226.1
839.5
3,954.0
1,409.2
501.5
1,750.7
7,615.3
1990
205.0
949. 1
3,654.1
1,442.4
2,068.6
1,035.0
8,200.0
1995
35.0
10.2
5.9
204.5
13.6
10.2
60.1
121.0
13.6
10.2
204.7
52.9
281.5
328.6
201.3
83.6
226.1
291.5
200.2
317.1
140.3
263.2
201.2
600.9
63.1
1,128.4
3,298.6
1,533.1
3,833.6
506.0
9,171.3
Source for current data:
EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer Printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.5-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
16.1
10.5
4.0
1.6
5.8
5.8
3.3
20.9
9.8
4.0
7.1
3.3
9.8
3.4
26.6
8
4
13
1.9
13.5
3.4
.9
.3
.4
19.2
31.0
37.4
45.5
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
51.8
19.0
18.6
10.6
55.9
8.8
26.2
9.1
58.7
4.3
29.7
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.6-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.112
0.464
0.962
1.201
0.239
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
0.031
0.169
0.350
0.129
2.371
2.866
1.549
0.679
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
0.317
0.289
0.606
0.394
0.162
0.556
0.268
0.120
0.388
0.126
0.140
0.266
West South Central 2.162 1.591 0.885 0.619
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.591 0.885 0.619
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
0.249
0.787
1.036
0.106
0.676
0.782
0.084
0.420
0.504
0.064
0.249
0.313
TOTAL
6.175
5.795
3.327
1.877
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change in Rates From Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
B.7-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
1985
4.8 (0.12)
(50.0) (0.50)
59.8 (0.18)
82.0 (0.36)
96.6
65.6
51.8
116.4
(0.41)
(0.72)
93.9 (0.69)
93.9
(103.0) (0.04)
186.9 (1.26)
83.6
1990
12.9 (0.26)
81.2 (0.70)
300.9 (0.93)
206.0 (1.36)
601.0
817.8 (1.48)
(545.4) (0.53)
272.4
1995
37.3 (0.63)
442.6 (1.65)
340.9 (1.35)
358.2 (1.62)
1,179.0
1,342.7 (1.78)
(881.4) (1.36)
461.3
963.6
963.6
270.0
176.7
(5.18)
(4.0)
(1.25)
875.0
875.0
245.2
220.6
(3.52)
(2.65)
(1.37)
446.7
465.8
391.5 (0.37) 2,283.8 (1.70) 2,981.3 (1.75)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 5,105.9
Objective Function 330.2
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function 4,306.5
26,002.5
2,061.5
23,425.3
32,263.6
3,601.7
55,696.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-2
Preliminary Draft
September 7, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
RELATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARD
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
(103 tons)
1985
-
46.7
98.2
110.3
255. 1
51.9
7.2
59.2
176.2
176.2
97.7
(4.5)
93.2
583.9
1990
12.9
256.8
537.9
422.4
1,229.9
36.4
118.3
154.5
750.6
750.6
362.0
78.7
440.6
2,575.9
1995
55.9
477.8
1,054.3
i 660.3
2,248.5
100.3
364.2
464.6
1,167.0
1, 167.0
623.4
282.3
905.7
4,786. 1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.9-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AVERAGE COST PER TON OF SO REMOVAL
(10 $/ton removal)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
0.2 Lb. Floor With Exemptions
0.38
1.97
0.53
0.90
0.67
0.49
1.76
1.28
1.01
0.89
0.52
0.99
0.75
0.51
0.62
0.2 Lb. Floor Without Exemption
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
0.65
0.28
0.85
0.93
0.75
0.75
6.19
1.30
1.02
1.09
0.88
1.31
0.44
0.56
0.85
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.10-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTION'S
(106 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
1975
392.1
1985
1990
416.7
448.8
1995
158.2
211.1
22.9
179.4
216.4
20.9
255.2
178.3
15.4
354.7
165.2
12.9
532.7
MIDWEST
138.6
227.8
317.9
397.0
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5 23.2 27.9 34.7
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2 293.6 513.8 725.1
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7 316.8 541.8 759.8
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
8.2
57.7
45.6
37.8
3.7
10.9
71.8
48.2
59.0
3.7
15.7
61.8
47.3
50.3
1.0
153.0
193.6
176.0
TOTAL
634.6
1,114.3 1,502.0 1,865.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
' B.11-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
17.0
76.6
85.5
0.3
21.5
89.0
144.2
0.4
28.9
126.1
199.1
0.6
158.1
179.4
255.2
354.7
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
129.4
12.6
54.9
19.6
216.4
125.4
4.2
30.7
17.9
178.3
127.9
0.1
19.3
17.9
165.2
1.7
21.2
_
22.9
4.7
12.1
4.1
20.9
5.8
4.4
5.1
15.4
6.1
1.3
5.5
12.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
151.0
89.2
152.5
23.9
152.8
93.2
179.3
23.5
162.9
126.2
219.7
24.0
392.1
416.7
448.8
532.7
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.1
138.6
164.5
62.4
1.0
227.8
8.6
23.2
244.5
72.3
1.0
317.9
27.9
317.7
78.2
1.1
397.0
0.3
7.8
0.4
0.3
21.3
1.6
0.3
22.6
5.0
-
29.0
5.7
34.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
B.ll-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
89.6
204.0
293.6
199.3
314.6
513.8
319.6
405.5
725.1
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
0.3
110.9
205.6
316.8
0.3
221.8
319.6
541.8
348.6
411.2
759.8
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.3
5.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
6.5
3.3
0.9
0.5
9.3
4.9
1.0
9.5
8.2
10.9
15.7
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71.8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
4.0
9.5
32.1
4.2
9.6
34.4
1.8
12.4
33.0
45.6
48.2
47.3
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
21.8
37.8
16.9
42.2
59.0
3.0
47.3
50.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.11-.J
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
RKCUONAL COM, PRODUCTION
UNUBK Al'TBKNimVK tfVANUAKU OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical _ _ _ -
High Sulfur _ _ _ -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.0
Low Sulfur
Total 4.5 3.7 3.7 1.0
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 4.3 4.4 2.3
High Sulfur 8.4 5.8 6.5 9.3
Medium Sulfur 30.4 88.4 105.1 81.4
Low Sulfur 11.7 54.5 77.5 83.0
Total 53.7 153.0 193.6 176.0
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 155.3 157.2 165.2
High Sulfur 147.8 284.9 344.7 453.1
Medium Sulfur 197.0 414.2 578.6 729.5
Low Sulfur 62.5 259.8 421.6 517.7
Total 509.0 1,114.3 1,502.0 1,865.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 0.97 1.13 1.23
Medium Sulfur 1.12 1.23 1.32
Low Sulfur 1.57 1.68 1.77
Regional Average 1.11 1.24 1.33
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur 1.02 1.22 1.34
Medium Sulfur 1.20 1.37 1.51
Low Sulfur 1.54 1.66 1.74
Regional Average 1.45 1.64 1.80
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 1.20 1.38 1.53
Low Sulfur 1.57 1.68 1.77
Regional Average 1.37 1.61 1.77
Midwest
High Sulfur 0.95 1.13 1.24
Medium Sulfur 1.32 1.41 1.48
Low Sulfur 1.62 1.71 1.79
Regional Average 1.06 1.20 1.29
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.42 0.42 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.46 0.46 0.47
Regional Average 0.42 0.43 0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.92 1.01 1.07
Low Sulfur 1.06 1.14 1.25
Regional Average 1.01 1.10 1.17
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-bituminous)
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.42 0.45
Low Sulfur 0.52 0.53 0.52
Regional Average 0.49 0.49 0.49
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.20
1.38
1.57
1.31
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
National Average
0.48
0.48
0.58
0.60
0.59
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.96
0.61
1.03
0.86
0.86
1.09
1.16
1.21
0.82
0.73
0.76
0.95
0.95
1. 13
0.98
0.76
1.06
1.06
1.06
1. 19
1.28
1.29
1.32
0.94
0.96
0.99
0.99
1.23
1.00
0.76
1.09
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B- ]3-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
MIDWEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
1.436
2.685
1.551
5.672
1.890
2.658
1.619
6.167
2.589
2.945
1.546
7.080
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
0.144
0.772
0.838
1.754
0.038
2.067
0.865
2.971
0.004
3.126
0.866
3.996
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
1.235
0.931
2.166
1.610
1.034
2.644
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.079
0.049
0.128
0.076
0.221
0.297
0.029
0.843
0.872
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.684
0.877
0.782
1.659
1.312
1.152
2.464
1.639
1.877
3.516
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
5.190
11.274
4.452
20.916
7.020
14.407
5.195
26.621
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.13-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.258
0.039
0.297
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.295
1.007
0.056
1.358
0.430
2.119
0.067
2.616
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.789
0.967
2.004
0.218
3.189
1.477
2.644
0.252
4.373
2.080
3.123
0.350
5.554
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.328
1.015
0.675
0.557
2.247
1.198
1.158
0.512
2.868
1.658
1.416
0.487
3.561
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
4.239
2.512
3.692
0.831
7.035
3.261
5.236
0.816
9.313
4.426
6.697
0.904
12.027
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.037
1.941
0.992
3.969
.505
.762
1.050
4.317
2.205
1.684
0.984
4.874
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.399
0.744
0.559
1.702
0.385
0.896
0.569
1.850
0.384
1.261
0.562
2.207
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.32
Medium Sulfur 1.99
Low Sulfur -
Regional Average 1.34
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.20
Medium Sulfur 1.47
Low Sulfur 1.86
Regional Average 1.42
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.21
Medium Sulfur 1.62
Low Sulfur 1.83
Regional Average 1.51
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.15
Medium Sulfur 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.70
Regional Average 1.47
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.15
Medium Sulfur 1.47
Low Sulfur 1.78
Regional Average 1.40
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.08
Medium Sulfur 1.00
Low Sulfur 1.18
Regional Average 1.07
West South Central
High Sulfur 1.26
Medium Sulfur 0.14
Low Sulfur 1.39
Regional Average 0.83
1.46
2.07
1.49
1.40
1.58
1.98
1.55
1.46
1.72
1.93
1.64
1.34
1.60
1.80
1.56
1.32
1.42
1.86
1.46
1.25
0.99
1.20
1.11
1.47
1.13
1.43
1.22
1.55
1.87
1.59
1.49
1.68
2.08
1.66
1.57
1.79
2.03
1.72
1.45
1.69
1.85
1.61
1.43
1.44
1.95
1.50
1.36
1.01
1.20
1.12
1.25
1.44
1.28
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.59 0.78 0.87
Low Sulfur 0.84 0.92 0.93
Regional Average 0.71 0.84 0.89
Pacific
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.97 1.08 1.18
Low Sulfur 1.04 1.14 1.22
Regional Average 1.00 1.12 1.22
National Total
High Sulfur 1.17 1.37 1.48
Medium Sulfur 1.26 1.38 1.44
Low Sulfur 1.42 1.45 1.45
National Average 1.28 1.39 1.45
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985 USE OF WESTERN COAL
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD O
0.2 Lfl. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
Industrie 1
Metallurgical
Residential/Coomerciai
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
o
z
o
o
a
T3
O
a
m
o
6
( 10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the East We
3itu=inous Subbituninous Lignite Total Metallurgical
3.2 - - 3.
- -
0.3 - - 0.
-
29.5 15.8 - 43.
19.8 6.0 - 25.
4.2 - 4.
49.3 25.9 - 75.
52.8 25.9 - 78.
2
4.7
3
-
3
7
2
2
0.4
7 5.1
st*jrn C 3a i 1cr-5' ed ir. tr.e West
3ictiz11'ou~ 5ubr if jLTLiTiO'-s Lirr.i*2
13.2 64.^
2.6
0.2
9.7 17.6
22.3 35.7 16.0
29.1 109.2 47.3
8.6
51.9 153.5 63.4
2.9
70.?' 227.6 80.9
Tota
77.
7.
0.
27.
74.
185.
8.
268.
3.
384.
i
7
2
2
3
5
6
6
'
3
5
Tota
dO.
7_
0.
27.
1 19.
21 1.
12.
343.
3.
453.
i
9
2
5
3
6
*
*
9
3
2
cn V
rt M
3 3
i-io.-
M "
o
-. M
\O D>
J Ml
00 ft
-------
O
Tl
o
O
3D
o
O
1990 USE OF WESTER; COAI.
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION'S
6
(10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Metallurgical Bituminous Suhbituminous Lignite Total
Industrial - 5.0 - - 5.0
Metallurgical 0.5 - 0.5
Residential/
Com^rcial - 0.1 - - 0.1
Synthetics - - -
Utilities
Existing - 29.8 14.6 - 44.3
New - 24.7 37.5 - 62.2
Conversions - - 6.2 - 6.2
Total - 54.4 58.3 - 112.7
Export - - -
Total 0.5 59.6 58.3 - 118.4
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical Bituminous
13.9
5. 1 2.6
0. 1
1.6
20.2
58.8
78.9
0.4 3.0
5.5 100.3
Subbituminous Lignite Total
156.& - 170.7
7.7
0.1
23.8 12.2 37.7
30.6 16.3 67.3
191.0 71.2 321.0
9.0 - 9.0
230.8 87.5 397.2
3.5
411.4 99.7 616.8
Total
175.7
8.2
0. 3
37.7
111.6
383.2
15.2
510.0
3.5
735.2
5TS-
11
o
-» l-t
VO 0>
>J M)
00 r+
«
-------
Industrlal
Metal 1 logical
Residential/Ci
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conve rsions
Total
Export.
Total
rcial
1995 USE OF WESTERS CCAi
UNDER ALTEWiATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
( 1 O6 tons )
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Bituminous Subbi Cumin cms Lignite Total
7.8 - - 7.8
-
0.1 - - 0.1
.
26.9 12.4 - 39.3
22.4 53.3 - 75.7
6.8 - 6.8
49.3 72.5 - 121.8
- . _ _
57.2 72.5 - 129.7
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical Bituminous
17.9
4.3 2.6
0.1
4.8
16.3
57.3
73.6
0.5 3.2
4.7 102.1
Subbituminous Lignite
181.7
-
-
37.9 12.2
30.5 10.4
343.2 73.9
9.0
382.6 84.2
_
602.5 96.5
Total
199.6
6.9
0. 1
55.0
57.2
474.4
9.0
540.6
3.6
805.8
Total
270.4
6.9
0.1
55.0
96.5
550.1
15.8
622.5
3.6
935.5
O
O
o
30
TJ
O
3J
to v
a n
>o a>
ft (-
a> H-
3 9
er H-
(H 3
to
O
-» n
10 ID
»J Hi
oo rt
m
o
-------
o
O
O
39
1
s
o
WESTERN COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
(106 tons)
Consuming Region
New Midlde South East North
England Atlantic Atlantic Central
1985
_
- - 31.1
20.5
- - - 51.6
1990
- - -
- 33.5
- 22.4
- - - 55.9
1995
_
- 31.6
20.1
East South
Central Total
0.6 0.6
26.5 57.6
20.5
27.1 78.7
1.4 1.4
61.1 94.6
22.4
62.5 118.4
1.0 1.0
77.0 108.6
20. 1
51.7
78.0
129.7
co V
ro H
us n>
n- M
f"
3 T
O
-» ^
\O f>
-O M>
00 ft
JO
-------
B.17-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal*
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas*
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
37.2
183.6
192. 1
147.3
2.7
42.2
68.3
482.8
8
38
40
14
98
.5
309.6
197
81
30
224.7
145
4
74
84
717
14
43
31
12
.4
.2
(66.9)
(60.6)
.9 (61.1)
.2 (57.9)
.5 (61.4)
(26.1)
.3
.8
.7
(44.9)
(48.4)
167
.3
427.7
197
83
146
188.5
123
4
60
87
871
19
49
22
10
.8
.3
(66.9)
(56.4)
.9 (56.9)
.1 (58.0)
.7 (54.9)
(17.0)
.2
.8
.6
(44.0)
(48.4)
230
.0
580.0
197
83
298
157
89
1,057
23
55
15
8
.8
78
4
74
.5
.3
(66.9)
(52.6)
.9 (51.
.5 (61.
.6 (50.
(10.4)
.2
.8
.9
(43.5)
(48.5)
5)
8)
8)
* Effective capacity.
** Power-plants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coaL (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.18-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 $'S)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1985
1990
1995
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
147.0
62.7 (61.3)
73.9 (111.7)
54.0 (81.2)
19.9 (30.5)
10.4 (40.1)
0.9 (2.1)
9.5 (38.0)
5.3
105.0
8.7 (94.0)
2.3 (34.2)
4.1 (30.5)
2.3 (29.3)
0.3
295.5
132.6 (130.1)
152.3 (209.8)
55.2 (83.1)
97.1 (146.7)
10.6 (41.2)
0.9 (2.1)
9.8 (39.1)
6.5
176.1
24.4 (209.3)
2.3 (33.8)
19.8 (146.7)
2.3 (28.8)
0.3
465.3
196.9 (192.8)
255.9 (382.1)
55.6 (83.5)
200.3 (298.6)
12.5 (48.5)
0.9 (2.1)
11.6 (46.4)
6.6
265.4
45.5 (362.0)
2.3 (33.9)
40.8 (298.6)
2.4 (29.5)
266.3
502.8
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
1,022.8
665.0
652.4
661.6
428.6
250.0
259.4
67.3
134.4
78.5
92.6
1,019.2
664.3
661.9
662.8
428.6
250.6
257.3
68.0
135.0
79.9
116.6
1,021.3
665.9
670.8
669.7
428.6
250.0
257.7
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
1990
1995
New England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
GW
3.315 (79.9)
3.315 (79.9)
GW
3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.8)
GW
5.239 (90.0)
3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.8)
5.239 (90.0)
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
. ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.245 (90.0) 2.245 (90.0)
1.644 (90.0) 14.256 (90.0)
5.338 (34.1)
2.427 (41.0)
5.333 (34.1)
2.427 (40.5)
7.583 (50.6) 7.578 (50.7)
2.427 (41.0) 2.427 (40.5)
1.644 (90.0) 14.256 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0) 2.553 (90.0)
6.226 (90.0) 35.942 (90.0)
6.297 (46.4)
2.042 (59.9)
8.852 (59.0)
2.042 (59.9)
6.226 (90.0)
6.570 (46.3)
2.127 (52.5)
9.123 (58.5)
2.127 (52.5)
39.942 (90.0)
2.245 (90.0)
39.570 (90.0)
5.326 (38.1)
2.427 (40.5)
7.571 (53.5)
2.427 (40.5)
39.570 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
66.790 (90.0)
6.561 (46.3)
2.685 (44.6)
9.116 (58.5)
2.685 (44.6)
66.790 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - ~ ~
NSPS -
ANSPS 5.925 (90.0) 23.424 (90.0) 39.772 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing ~ ~
NSPS 3.086 (40.7) 3.081 (40.7) 3.105 (40.3)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing _ - -
NSPS 3.086 (40.7) 3.081 (40.7) 3.105 (40.3)
ANSPS 5.925 (90.0) 23.424 (90.0) 39.772 (90.0)
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.798 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS -
ANSPS 13.795 (90.0) 73.622 (90.0) 151.371 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 14.950 (49.4) 15.218 (49.3) 15.202 (50.7)
NSPS 7.555 (46.0) 7.635 (43.9) 8.217 (41.8)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 19.750 (59.3) 20.016 (59.1) 20.002 (60.1)
NSPS 7.555 (46.0) 7.635 (43.9) 8.217 (41.8)
ANSPS 13.795 (90.0) 73.622 (90.0) 151.371 (90.0)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS -
ANSPS 1.590 (90.0) 11.022 (90.0) 28.460 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.278 (36.5) 3.488 (42.2) 4.270 (36.5)
NSPS 6.682 (27.7) 6.677 (27.7) 6.673 (27.7)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.278 (36.5) 3.488 (42.2) 4.270 (36.5)
NSPS 6.682 (27.7) 6.677 (27.7) 6.673 (27.7)
ANSPS 1.590 (90.0) 11.022 (87.5) 28.460 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
i
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing - -
NSPS -
ANSPS 1.764 (90.0) 7.393 (90.0) 15.507 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 0.588 (33.2) 0.585 (33.2) 0.581 (33.2)
NSPS 5.001 (27.2) 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Ex.Lst.lm, 0.588 (33.2) 0.585 (33.2) 0.581 (33.2)
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7)
ANSPS 1.764 (90.0) 7.393 (90.0) 15.507 (90.0)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing -
NSPS -
ANSPS 3.354 (90.0) 18.415 (90.0) 43.967 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.866 (36.1) 4.073 (40.8) 4.851 (36.1)
NSPS 11.683 (27.7) 11.678 (27.7) 11.674 (27.7)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.866 (36.1) 4.073 (40.8) 4.851 (36.1)
NSPS 11.683 (27.7) 11.678 (27.7) 11.674 (27.7)
ANSPS 3.354 (90.0) 18.415 (90.0) 43.967 (90.0)
West. South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing -
NSPS -
ANSPS 7.854 (90.0) 33.239 (90.0) 59.733 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1) 1.110 (64.0)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.125 (63.9) 5.114 (63.9)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1) 1.110 (64.1)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.125 (63.9) 5.114 (63.9)
ANSPS 7.854 (79.7) 33.239 (90.0) 59.733 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW (%)
1995
GW
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632 (90.0)
5.160 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.681 (43.0)
3.587 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
5.160 (90.0)
0.331 (90.0)
0.331 (90.0)
2.632 (90.0)
5.491 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.681 (43.0)
3.587 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
5.491 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
17.500 (90.0)
3.579 (27.7)
6.490 (38.9)
3.579 (27.7)
9.319 (54.3)
17.500 (90.0)
3.927 (90.0)
3.927 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
21.427 (90.0)
3.579 (27.7)
6.490 (38.8)
3.579 (27.7)
9.319 (54.3)
21.427 (90.0)
2.763 (90.0)
27.148 (90.0)
3.571 (27.7)
6.150 (36.5)
3.571 (27.7)
8.913 (53.4)
27.148 (90.0)
16.373 (90.0)
16.373 (90.0)
2.763 (90.0)
43.521 (90.0)
3.571 (27.7)
6.150 (36.5)
3.571 (27.7)
8.913 (53.1)
43.521 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW(%) GW (%) GW (
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.798 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS 2.632 (90.0) 2.829 (90.0) 2.763 (90.0)
ANSI'S 30.494 (90.0) 146.703 (90.0) 298.590 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 24.513 (44.3) 23.979 (45.4) 24.734 (45.2)
NSPS 31.564 (41.2) 30.927 (40.0) 31.154 (39.1)
ANSPS ~
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 29.313 (51.8) 28.777 (52.8) 29.534 (52.5)
NSPS 34.196 (45.0) 33.756 (44.2) 33.917 (43.2)
ANSPS 30.494 (90.0) 146.703 (90.0) 298.590 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.1
124.1
Low
Sulfur
203.2
17.0
186.2
88.8
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
383.7
174.7
209.0
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.8
3.7
High
Sulfur
165.1
64.2
101.0
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
752.0
255.8
496.2
157.7
96.0
1.5
29.5
73.3
295.1
445.2
245.5
1110.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.9
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
231.3
42.8
188.2
184.8
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
597.6
401.7
195.9
0.1
31.4
0.5
33.0
3.9
High
Sulfur
160.8
62.6
98.2
91.6
-
-
20.3
9.2
Total
989.8
507.1
482.6
276.5
100.3
0.7
55.9
76.9
421.7
666.5
281.9
1500.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.8
64.1
135.9
Low
Sulfur
268.5
85.8
182.6
213.6
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
Medium
Sulfur
838.6
668.5
170.1
-
32.6
0.3
44.9
4.0
High
Sulfur
166.4
70.5
95.9
106.9
-
-
37.4
9.7
Total
1273.5
824.8
448.6
320.5
104.4
0.4
87.5
80.7
490.2
920.4
320.4
1866.9
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO,
STANDARD OF 0.*
EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
150.2
187.2
193.8
381.0
148.2
108.2
256.4
121.6
22.7
31 .4
175.7
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9
371.7
2,207.6
1,523.8
69.6
13.8
366.7
1,973.9
1,469.9
79.1
108.4
305.6
1,962.6
1,404.8
105.0
244.3
49.4
1,803.6
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3, 156.3
263.7
33.0
707.6
3, 118.6
264.6
241.9
310.7
2,961.6
281.3
475.0
180.6
3,378.3
4, 160.5
3,935.7
3,898.4
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
3,351.5
-
-
43.2
2,373.6
262.6
41.0
108.2
2,288.9
265.4
164.8
56.2
2,154.3
261.4
314.1
46.9
3,394.7
2,785.3
2,775.4
2,776.7
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,868.0
1,262.8
9,130.8
7,240.9
595.9
87.8
1,376.3
9,300.9
7,025.1
609.1
515.1
780.7
8,930.0
6,642.3
647.7
1,033.4
308.3
8,654.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO,
STANDARD OF 0.*
EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 5,063.1 4,781.1 4,524.2
NSPS - 407.7 472.1 450.3
ANSPS - 5.1 64.2 188.9
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 129.7 82.5 36.6
Total 6,885.2 5,604.6 5,400.0 5,194.7
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,912.9
NSPS - 397.4
ANSPS - 6.6
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 58.7
Total 1,532.9 2,375.6
1,827.3
401.7
37.0
39.5
1,658.5
389.0
95.0
39.7
2,305.6 2,182.2
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
8,263.3
-
-
144.8
6,976.0 '
805.1
11.7
187.9
6,608.4
873.8
101.2
122.0
6,182.7
839.3
283.9
76.3
8,408.1
7,980.2
7,705.4 7,382.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 203.7 150.6 150.6 62.4
NSPS - 700.7 700.5 682.5
ANSPS - 76.9 238.3 428.9
Oil/Gas Plants 209.0 741.0 406.3 280.6
Total 412.7 1,669.1 1,495.6 1,452.4
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
322.9
25.2
358.1
373.3
173.1
22.6
24.4
358.2
172.8
95.1
20.6
294.6
175.8
172.9
11.4
593.4
646.6
654.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 81.5 38.3 34.7
NSPS - 12.3 12.2 12.0
ANSPS - 1.2 11.8 32.7
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 160.1 96.2 47.1
Total 195.7 255.1 158.5 126.5
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 454.8 396.5 329.3
NSPS - 185.4 188.0 187.8
ANSPS - 23.8 106.9 205.6
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 184.5 116.8 58.5
Total 553.8 848.5 805.1 781.2
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,882.3 14,180.7 13,216.6
NSPS - 2,287.1 2,368.3 2,357.1
ANSPS - 200.2 961.5 1,972.4
Oil/Gas Plants 1 ,789.9 2,488.9 1 ,425.8 723.8
Total 18,705.3 19,798.4 18,936.4 18,269.9
Source for current data: EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
4.3
12.1
17.1
29.2
10.4
9.3
19.8
8.3
2.1
2.8
13.1
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
234.4
14.3
248.7
57.6
5.8
1.2
33.6
98.2
52.9
6.6
9.7
26.8
96.0
48.5
8.8
21.9
5.0
84.2
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
391.4
37.4
428.8
127.2
22.0
3.0
55.9
124.0
22.1
21.7
24.3
111.8
23.4
42.7
14.9
208.0
192.1
192.8
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 503.6
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1.9
Total 505.5
76.6
21.9
3.7
9.6
70.7
22.1
14.9
4.9
63.7
21.8
28.2
4.4
111.8
112.6
118.1
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,129.7
57.6
1,187.3
273.5
49.7
7.9
116.2
447.2
258.0
50.8
46.3
65.3
420.4
232.3
54.0
94.9
27.1
408.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,430.5
-
-
8.6
162.3
34.0
0.5
13.1
157.5
39.5
5.8
8.4
148.6
39.3
17.0
3.8
1,439.1
209.8
211.2
208.7
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 135.9 47.3 43.3 41.8
NSPS - 34.4 35.2 35.8
ANSPS - 0.9 4.1 9.9
Oil/Gas Plants 3.8 5.3 3.8 4.0
Total 139.7 87.9 86.3 91.5
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,566.4
-
-
12.4
209.6
68.4
1.4
18.4
200.8
74.7
9.9
12.2
190.4
75.1
26.9
7.8
1,578.8
297.7
297.6
300.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
37.9
36.4
6.6
58.4
6.9
63.4
6.6
58.4
25.1
34.9
2.8
58.4
41.7
24.2
74.3
135.3
125.0
126.9
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
132.9
3.2
136.1
35.6
27.3
4.1
2.8
69.8
33.5
27.2
14.3
2.3
77.2
29.7
27.3
22.6
1.5
81.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 0.5 4.0 1.5 1.5
NSPS - 1.5 1.5 1.5
ANSPS - 0.3 3.6 12.2
Oil/Gas Plants 21.8 16.3 10.0 5.6
Total 22.3 22.0 16.6 20.8
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 133.4 39.6 35.0 31.2
NSPS - 28.8 28.7 28.8
ANSPS - 4.4 17.9 34.8
Oil/Gas Plants 25.0 19.1 12.3 7.1
Total 158.4 91.8 93.9 101.9
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 2,867.5 529.2 500.5 456.6
NSPS - 205.2 212.4 216.2
ANSPS - 20.5 99.2 198.4
Oil/Gas Plants 131.4 217.1 124.7 66.2
Total 2,998.9 971.9 936.9 937.1
Source for current data: EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1,9178
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 8.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.0
237.1
78.3
80.1
158.4
62.0
40.9
23.9
126.8
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
131.2
278.3
409.5
431.7
40.6
24.8
280.1
397.0
46.10
194.8
239.5
364.0
61.3
438.8
48.9
777 .2
877.4
913.0
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 831.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 425.2
Total 1,267.0
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
954.0
153.8
59.3
354.8
930.2
154.3
434.5
154.6
838.5
164.1
853.4
98.4
1,521.9
1,673.7
1,954.4
574.5
153.2
73.7
40.3
523.3
154.8
265.6
20.0
465.9
152.5
500.2
18.2
841.6
963.7
1,137.5
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,702.3
801.0
2,503.3
2,050.7
347.6
157.8
821.8
3,377.8
1,928.8
355.2
894.9
494.2
3,673.1
1,730.4
377.9
1,833.3
189.4
4,131.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD O^ 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3 1,210.2 1,172.5 1,091.1
NSPS - 237.8 276.7 275.0
ANSPS - 9.2 115.3 339.4
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3 130.3 83.4 36.6
Total 2,093.6 1,587.5 1,642.9 1,742.1
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9 320.2 285.1 274.4
NSPS - 245.6 251.3 256.8
ANSPS - 14.2 75.9 182.7
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7 39.4 27.3 27.4
Total 610.6 619.3 639.7 741.3
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total 2,704.2 2,206.8 2,305.5 2,483.4
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total 864.0 1,196.9 1,315.1 1,446.8
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 344.0 293.6 277.9 249.5
NSPS - 191.3 190.1 191.0
ANSPS - 77.7 257.0 396.2
Oil/Gas Plants 73.8 21.6 19.3 10>3
Total 417.8 583.9 744.2 847.0
2,403.2
-
_
301.0
1,530.4
483.4
23.4
169.7
1,475.6
528.0
191.2
110.7
1,365.5
531.8
522.1
64.0
106.7
-
-
757.3
66.3
423.7
153.0
553.8
66.3
423.6
520.4
304.8
27.5
423.6
784.3
211.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD o£ 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
44.7
276.3
321.0
35.0
10.2
5.9
204.5
13.6
10.2
60.1
121 .0
13.6
10.2
203.9
52.9
255.7
205.0
280.6
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
388.7
350.1
738.8
328.6
201.5
83.6
226.1
291.5
200.3
317.1
140.3
263.1
201.2
600.1
63.2
839.6
949.2
1,127.6
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
4,600.8
2,209.4
6,811.2
3,975.9
1,456.1
417.7
1,771.3
7,620.9
3,744.2
1,507.2
1,923.5
1,050.1
8,224.9
3,386.4
1,534.5
3,739.5
528.8
9,189.2
Source for 1975 data:
EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer printout, May 31, 1978.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.5-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
16.1
10.6
4.1
1.4
5.9
5.8
3.3
31.0
20.8
10.0
4.2
6.6
3.4
9.8
3.4
37.5
26.6
9.
4.
13.
1.9
13.4
3.4
45.5
1
3
2
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
51.9
18.8
18.7
10.6
55.7
9.1
26.1
9.1
58.6
4.3
29.6
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.6-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.112
2.371
0.464
0.971
1.220
0.256
2.911
0.240
0.713
0.518
0.128
1.599
0.079
0.169
0.365
0.129
0.742
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
0.317
0.289
0.606
0.423
0.162
0.585
West South Central 2.162
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162
0.888
0.888
0.619
0.619
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
0.249
0.787
1.036
0.106
0.676
0.782
0.084
0.420
0.504
0.064
0.249
0.315
TOTAL
6.175
5.882
3.391
1.945
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.7-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF
ELECTRICITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD
OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
1985
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost
Objective Function
Present Value of Changes
in objective Function
(49.7)
164.1
35.4
149.8
25.4
(19.9)
5.5
(0.06)
(0.49)
(0.13)
(0.45)
(0.25)
152.9 (0.78)
152.9
(99.9)
186.6
86.7
394.8
5,149.0
412.9
5,385.0
(0.10)
(1.26)
1990
9.1
139.7
593.8
203.8
946.4
943.8
(572.2)
371.6
976.1
976.1
272.3
176.7
(0.18)
(1.20)
(1.91)
(1.91)
(1.82)
(0.37)
(5.16)
(4.0)
(1.25)
449.0
(0.38) 2,743.2 (2.06)
31,082.7
2,286.6
26,076.1
1995
187.7
607.1
776.8
520.0
2,091.7
1,569.8
(875.0)
694.8
944.8
944.8
286.6
221.1
507.7
4,239.2
44,500.6
4,310.3
44,219.9
(3.27)
(2.53)
(1.77)
(2.40)
(2.59)
(1.42)
(3.80)
(3.04)
(1.37)
(2.49)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
RELATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARD
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
(103 tons)
1985
-
49.6
65.9
114.3
229.8
35.4
(15.9)
19.5
180.5
97.8
(4.5)
93.3
523.3
1990
8.5
263.6
554.5
428.4
1,255.0
(46.2)
106.2
60.0
750.0
362.0
78.7
440.6
2,505.6
1995
27.4
489.8
1,118.0
749.9
2,385.1
152.9
377.9
530.8
1,166.5
620.5
282.3
902.8
4,985.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
B.10-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
(10 tons)
1975
158.2
211. 1
22.9
1985
177.0
216.2
21.3
1990
269.7
183.5
16.1
1995
367.7
175.6
14.1
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
414.6
218.8
23.2
304.4
327.6
469.0
276.9
27.9
530.3
558.2
557.4
322.7
36.0
762.9
799.0
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
TOTAL
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
634.6
8.2
57.7
45.6
37.8
3.7
10.4
71.8
49.7
59.0
3.7
16.7
61.8
49.9
50.8
1.0
153.0
194.6
180.1
1,114.0 1,498.7 1,869.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
17.5
73.0
86.3
0.3
24.1
76.3
168.9
0.4
31.9
93.4
241.8
0.6
158.1
177.0
269.7
367.7
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
129.4
12.6
54.7
19.6
126.7
4.2
33.8
18.5
133.9
-
22.9
18.9
211.1
216.2
183.5
175.6
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
-
4.7
12.1
4.5
5.9
4.7
5.5
6.4
1.6
6.1
22.9
21.3
16.1
14.1
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
151.5
85.6
153.1
24.3
156.7
80.5
207.4
24.4
172.2
93.4
266.3
25.5
392.1
414.6
469.0
557.4
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.1
-
155.7
62.1
1.0
197.0
78.9
1.0
242.7
88.9
1.1
138.6
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.6
218.8
0.3
21.3
1.6
23.2
276.9
0.3
22.6
5.0
27.9
322.7
30.3
5.7
36.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
B.ll-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
92.3
212.1
304.4
214.9
315.4
530.3
354.3
408.7
762.9
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.8
0.3
113.5
213.7
327.6
0.3
237.4
320.4
558.2
384.6
414.4
799.0
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.3
5.7
1.5
0.7
0.3
5.5
3.7
0.9
0.6
9.4
5.6
1.1
9.5
8.2
10.4
16.7
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71,8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.4
14.1
4.0
9.5
32.1
4.2
9.9
35.6
1.8
13.3
34.9
45.6
49.7
49.9
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
21.8
37.8
16.9
42.2
59.0
3.0
47.8
50.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.ll-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
6
(10 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Northwest
Metallurgical _ _ - -
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.0
Low Sulfur 0.8 ~ " ~
Total 4.5 3.7 3.7 1.0
WEST
Metallurgical 3.3 4.3 4.5 2.4
High Sulfur 8.4 5.7 5.5 9.4
Medium Sulfur 30.4 88.4 105.8 84.5
Low Sulfur 11.7 54.6 78.7 83.8
Total 53.7 153.0 194.6 180.1
TOTAL
Metallurgical 101.7 155.8 161.3 174.6
High Sulfur 147.8 247.4 283.3 345.4
Medium Sulfur 197.0 417.2 629.5 824.3
Low Sulfur 62.5 293.6 424.6 524.8
Total 509.0 1,114.0 1,498.7 1,869.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur 0.95
Medium Sulfur 1.12
Low Sulfur 1.57
Regional Average 1.11
1.10
1.29
1.70
1.28
1. 19
1.42
1.80
1.40
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.20
1.44
1.68
1.64
1.56
1.78
1.80
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average 1.39
Midwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average . 0.42
1.44
1.70
1.64
1.58
1.80
1.80
0.93
1.31
1.62
1.05
0.42
0.42
0.46
1.74
1.47
1.08
1.20
0.42
0.42
0.46
1. 16
1.58
1.83
1.28
0.42
0.47
0.43
0.43
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.91 1.02 1.16
Low Sulfur 1.06 1.17 1.29
Regional Average 1.01 1.11 1.23
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-bituminous)
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.42 0.47
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.54 0.52
Regional Average 0.49 0.49 0.50
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.01
1.29
1.49
1. 13
1.21
1.38
1.59
1.33
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
National Average
0.48
0.48
1.02
1.24
1.25
0.58
0.60
0.59
0.85
0.85
0.94
0.96
0.80
1.03
0.86
0.86
1. 11
1.17
1.22
0.82
0.73
0.76
0.95
0.95
1.09
1.03
0.77
1.07
1.08
1.08
1.22
1.31
1.31
1.32
0.97
0.99
0.99
0.99
1. 17
1.08
0.78
1. 11
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.13-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.201
0.008
0.209
0.160
0.142
0.302
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.260
1.034
0.056
1.350
0.257
1.515
0.067
1.840
0.267
2.281
0.060
2.608
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.786
0.652
2.191
0.338
0.598
3.394
0.377
0.759
4.472
0.318
3.181
4.370
5.549
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.328
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 4.239
0.915
0.719
0.581
2.215
2.062
3.950
0.975
0.920
1.380
0.547
2.846
1.976
6.297
0.991
0.908
2.188
0.494
3.590
2.094
9.083
0.872
6.987
9.264
12.049
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.312
1.688
0.956
3.956
1.367
1.914
1.045
4.325
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.524
0.744
0.424
1.692
0.395
0.903
0.545
1.844
0.378
1.274
0.559
2.211
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.13-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
MIDWEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
1.836
2.432
1.380
5.648
1.762
2.817
1.590
6.169
1.794
3.733
1.573
7.100
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
2.108
0.867
2.975
3.128
0.871
3.999
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
1.236
0.931
2.166
1.610
1.034
2.644
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.079
0.049
0.128
0.076
0.221
0.297
0.029
0.845
0.873
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.684
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
20.873
3.888
17.583
5.195
26.666
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(S/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.30 1.45 1.52
Medium Sulfur 1.99 2.13 1.81
Low Sulfur _ - 2. 19 _ -
Regional Average 1.32 1.47 1.65
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.15 1.36 1.44
Medium Sulfur 1.47 1.64 1.77
Low Sulfur 1.87 1.98 2.12
Regional Average 1.42 1.61 1.74
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.16 1.39 1.47
Medium Sulfur 1.63 1.76 1.85
Low Sulfur 1 .85 1.96 2.07
Regional Average 1.56 1.73 1.81
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.11 1.28 1.35
Medium Sulfur 1.53 1.66 1.73
Low Sulfur 1 .70 1 .81 1 .87
Regional Average 1.43 1.57 1.65
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.13 1.28 1.37
Medium Sulfur 1.46 1.43 1.47
Low Sulfur 1.78 1.88 1.99
Regional Average 1.41 1.47 1.52
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.06 1.22 1.29
Medium Sulfur 1.00 1.00 1.03
Low Sulfur 1.15 1.18 1.20
Regional Average 1.06 1.16 1.12
West South Central
High Sulfur - -
Medium Sulfur 0.30 1.12 1.25
Low Sulfur 1.39 1.43 1.44
Regional Average 0.82 1.21 1.29
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.59 0.79 0.89
Low Sulfur 0.84 0.93 0.94
Regional Average 0.71 0.85 0.91
Pacific
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.97 1.08 1.19
Low Sulfur 1.04 1.14 1.21
Regional Average 1.00 1.12 1.21
National Total
High Sulfur 1.13 1.30 1.39
Medium Sulfur 1.26 1.43 1.52
Low Sulfur 1.43 1.48 1.46
National Average 1.27 1.42 1.49
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985 USE OF WESTEWi COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
6
( 1 j tons )
Western Coal Consumed ir. the West
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/Cocnercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Hew
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
Western Coal Consumed in tne bast
Bitutinous Subbituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical
3.5 - - 3.5 -
4.7
0.3 - - 0.3 -
31.9 16.6 - 48.5
20.9 5.6 - 26.5
4.2 - 4.2
52.8 26.4 - 79
56.6 26.4 - 83
.2
0.4
.0 5.1
13.3
2.6
0.2
24.2
25.4
49.
2.
68.
,6
.9
.6
64.4
9.7
35.7
117.9
8.6
162.2
236.3
~ ' T~ fa 1
77.7
7.2
0.2
17.6 27.3
16.0 75.9
47.3 190.7
8.6
63.4 275.
3.
80.9 391.
2
3
0
81.
7.
0.
27.
124.
217.
12.
354.
3.
1
3
2
5
3
4
2
e
4
3
474.0
o
Tl
z
o
O
5
m
O
o n>
1-1 p»
l-t
-* ><
^1 l-h
oo n-
td
i-1
Ln
OJ
-------
1990 USE OF WESTERN COM.
CNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD 'jf
O.i LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT DCEXPTIOSE
( 106 tons)
Western Coal Consumed ir. the East
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical
Industrial
Metallurgical 1.C
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 1.0
Bituminous Siibbitumlnous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous
5.9
C. 1
0.1
-
36.9 15.0
25.9 44.8
5.2
62.9 65.0
_
69.0 65.0
5.9
1.1 5.1
0.1
-
51.9
70.7
5.2
127.8
0.4
135.0 5.5
13.8
2.7
0.1
1.5
18.9
55.7
74.6
3.0
95.8
Subbituminous Lignite Total
156.8
-
-
23.8
30.8
196.3
9.1
236.1
_
416.7
170.6
7.7
0.1
12.2 37.6
16.3 66.0
71.2 323.1
9.1
87.5 398.2
3.5
99 . 7 617.7
Total
176.4
3.8
0.3
37.6
117.9
393.8
14.3
526.1
3.5
752.6
o
Tl
o
O
X
-o
O
3
m
o
o a
rt i-
R S
VO (kl
vj Ml
OD rt
DO
tn
I
Ui
-------
199S USE OF WESTEPJi COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STA.SDAAO OF
0.2 LB. SO /MM3TU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPT IONS
o
z
o
s
o
O
3
m
o
( 'O6 tor.s)
Westerr. Coal Consumed in the East Western Coal Consumed ir. the West
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituminous Licmite Total Metallurgical Bituminous
Industrial -
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing -
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
7.6 - 7.6 - 16
1.0 - - 1.1 4.5 2
0.1 - - 0.1 - 0
3
28.6 12.4 - 41.0 - 16
31.9 83.1 - 115.1 - 52
7.8 - 7.8
60.6 103.3 - 163.8 - 68
0.5 3
69.3 103.3 - 172.6 4.9 94
.9
.5
. 1
.3
. 1
.5
.6
.2
.5
Subbituniinous Lignite Total
181.7 - 198
7
0
37.9 12.2 53
29.7 11.6 57
350.6 73.9 477
9.1 - 9
389.4 85.5 543
3
609.0 97.8 978
.6
.0
. 1
.5
.4
.0
.1
.5
.6
.9
Toia.
20-: .3
8.C-
0. 1
53.5
98.4
592.0
16.8
707.3
3.6
976.9
si?
O
00 ft
-------
WE! O X)N D I El
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
Consuming Region
New Midlde South East North East South
England Atlantic Atlantic Central Central
Total
1985
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
31.7
19.2
50.9
0.7
31.5
32.2
0.7
63.2
19.2
83.1
1990
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
39.6
22.6
62.2
3.0
69.7
72.7
3.0
109.3
22.6
134.9
1995
o
n
o
§
3
o
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
35.8
23.2
59.0
3.3
110.8
114.1
3.3
146.6
23.2
173.1
en t
n n
na n
ft !-
-> < I
~*1 l-ti
CD ft
-------
B.17-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. S02/MMBTU
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(1978 $'s)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal**
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
37.2 98.5 (66.9)
183.6 307.4 (60.4)
197.9 (61.4)
167.3 (66.9)
229.2 (66.9)
425.5 (56.6) 578.3 (52.8)
197.9 (58.3) 197.9 (52.9)
192
68
482
.1
147.3
2.7
42.1
.3
.8
227
81
28
.0
145
84
717
4
76
.4
.3
.2 (60.1)
.3 (54.7)
(26.2)
.6
.8
.6
(44.9)
(48.4)
83
144
190
.7
123
87
871
4
62
.8
.2
.1 (60.9) 83
.4 (51.8) 296
(17.1)
.9
.8
.1
(44.0)
(48.4)
160.6
80
4
75
89.5
1,057.6
.5 (61.7)
.8 (
(10
.8
.7
.1
(43
(48
50.1)
.7)
.5)
.5)
8
38
40
14
14
43
32
12
19
49
22
10
23
55
15
8
* Effective capacity.
** Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.18-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
(10 $'s)
(1978 $'s)
1985
146.2
62.7 ( 61.3)
72.8 (109.5)
54.0 (81.2)
18.8 (28.3)
10.7 (41.3)
0.9 (2.1)
9.8 (39.2)
5.1 (190.0)
105.0
8.8 (95.1)
2.5 (34.7)
3.7 (28.3)
2.6 (32.1)
0.3
265.4
1,022.8
665.0
664.3
664.8
428.6
250.0
259.1
72.0
130.1
81.0
92.5
1990
294.9
132.6 (130.1)
151.3 (227.5)
55.2 (83.1)
96.1 (144.4)
11.0 (42.5)
0.9 (2.1)
10.1 (40.4)
6.4 (240.0)
176.1
24.2 (211.7)
2.4 (33.5)
19.2 (144.4)
2.7 (33.8)
0.3
502.0
1,019.2
664.3
665.5
665.0
428.6
250.0
258.8
71.6
133.0
79.9
114.3
1995
465.2
196.9 (192.8)
255.7 (380.3)
55.6 (83.5)
200.1 (296.8)
12.6 (49.0)
0.9 (2.1)
11.8 (46.9)
6.4 (240.0)
265.4
45.3 (368.5)
2.5 (33.3)
39.9 (296.8)
2.9 (38.4)
-
782.4
1,021.3
665.9
674.2
672.4
428.6
251.6
257.1
72. 1
134.4
75.5
123.2
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
B.19-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
New England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.063 (90.0)
3.315 (29.9) 3.314 (79.9) 3.315 (79.9)
3.315 (79.2) 3.314 (79.9) 3.315 (79.9)
4.063 (90.0)
2.245
1.500
5.594
2.427
7.839
2.427
1.500
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.0)
(41.0)
(50.0)
(41.0)
(90.0)
2.245
13.667
5.592
2.427
7.837
2.427
13.667
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.0)
(41.0)
(50.0)
(41.0)
(90.0)
2.552
39.432
5.341
2.427
7.893
2.427
39.432
(90.0)
(90.0)
(37.4)
(43.6)
(54.4)
(43.6)
(90.0)
2.555 (90.0) 2.553
6.266 (90.0) 35.787
4.582 (45.5) 4.805
2.042 (59.9) 2.041
7.137 (61.4) 7.358
2.042 (59.9) 2.041
6.266 (90.0) 35.787
(90.0) 2.555
(90.0) 66.325
(44.8)
(59.9)
(60.5)
(59.9)
(90.0)
7.129
2.940
9.684
2.940
66.325
(90.0)
(90.0)
(41.0)
(50.0)
(53.9)
(50.0)
(90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
September 1, 1978
1985
1990
1995
East- South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
EAST
Capacity Kully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
East No1.1li_Centr a_l
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
rnpnoity Partially Scrubbed
Ex ir, 1- iiuj
Nsrs
AN SPy
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
GW
4.880
4.016
3.086
4.016
3.086
4.880
4.800
12.646
17.507
7.555
22.307
7.555
12.646
0.866
4.476
7.226
4.476
7.226
0.866
(%)
(90.0)
(39.8)
(40.7)
(39.8)
(40.7)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(46.8)
(46.0)
(56.1)
(46.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(53.0)
(37.7)
(53.0)
(37. -7)
(90.0)
GW
22.371
4.583
2.794
4.583
2.794
22.371
4.798
71.825
18.294
7.262
23.092
7.262
71.825
10.796
5.456
6.649
5.456
6.649
10.796
(*)
(90.0)
(39.0)
(43.6)
(39.0)
(43.6)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(46.4)
(47.1)
(55.5)
(47.1)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(49.4)
(39.9)
(49.4)
(39.9)
(90.0)
GW
39.803
5.324
2.654
5.374
2.654
39.803
5, 107
149.623
21.159
8.021
26.266
8.021
149.623
28.393
6.871
6.205
6,871
6.205
28.393
(%)
(90.0)
(38. 1 )
(45.2)
(38.1)
(45.2)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(45.4)
(46.5)
(54. 1)
(46.5)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(45. R)
(42.8)
(45.8)
(42.8)
(90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1.541 (90.0)
0.488
5.001
(23.2)
(27.7)
0.588 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
1.541 (90.0)
7.193
0.586
5.206
0.586
5.206
7.193
(90.0) 15.498
(33.2)
(27.7)
(33.2)
(27.7)
(90.0)
582
097
0.582
5.097
15.498
(90.0)
(33.2)
(29.3)
(33.2)
(29.3)
(90.0)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubber
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.407 (90.0)
17.989
5.064
12.227
5.064
12.227
2.402
(50.7)
(33.6)
(50.7)
(33.6)
(90.0)
6.042
11.805
6.042
11.805
17.989
(90.0) 43.891
(90.0)
(47.8)
(34.7)
(47.8)
(34.7)
(90.0)
7.453
11.302
7.453N
11.302
43.891
(44.8)
(36.7)
(44.8)
(36.7)
(90.0)
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
7.854 (90.0) 33.192
(90.0) 59.734
(90.0)
1.110
5.645
1.110
5.645
7.854
(64.1)
(60.6)
(64.1)
(60.6)
(90.0)
1.109
5.095
1.109
5.095
33.192
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(90.0)
1.108
5.095
1.108
5.095
59.734
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64.1)
(90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
September 1, 1978
SCKUDUER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.2 LDS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO,, REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1990
1995
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
iye
GW
2.632
5.160
3.587
6.681
3.587
9.313
5.160
ID
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.0)
(27.7)
(56.6)
(90.0)
GW
2.829
17.499
3.579
6.490
3.579
9.319
17.499
(%)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(27.7)
(54.4)
(90.0)
GW
2.763
27.147
3.571
6.149
3.571
8.912
27.147
(%)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(36.5)
(27.7)
(53.1)
(90.0)
0.331 (90.0) 3.927 (90.0) 16.373
0.331 (90.0)
3.927
(90.0) 16.373
(90.0)
(90.0)
2.632
5.491
3.587
6.681
3.587
9.313
5.491
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.0)
(27.7)
(56.6)
(90.0)
2.829
21.426
3.579
6.490
3.579
9.319
21.426
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(27.7)
(54.4)
(90.0)
2.763
43.420
3.571
6.149
3.571
8.913
43.520
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(36.5)
(27.7)
(53.1)
(90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRU13BEK CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE SIANDARD OF
0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
NATIONAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.789 (90.0) 5.107 (90.0)
NSPS 2.632 (90.0) 2.829 (90.0) 2.763 (90.0)
ANSPS 28.332 (90.0) 144.432 (90.0) 296.765 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 27.268 (45.9) 29.022 (45.1) 33.290 (44.0)
NSPS 32.107 (43.2) 30.701 (43.4) 30.568 (43.7)
ANSPS -
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 32.068 (52.5) 33.811 (51.5) 38.397 (60.1)
NSPS 34.739 (46.7) 33.530 (47.3) 33.331 (47.5)
ANSPS 28.332 (90.0) 144.432 (90.0) 296.765 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
( 10 Tons)
B.1-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.0
124. 1
Low
Sulfur
213.2
32.2
181.1
88.8
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
367.3
155.0
212.3
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.8
3.7
High
Sulfur
175.0
75.0
100.0
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
755.5
262.2
493.3
157.7
96.0
1.5
29.6
73.3
305.2
428.8
255.5
1113.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.8
LOW
Sulfur
277.7
101.5
176.1
184.9
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
508.7
308.8
199.9
0.4
31.3
0.5
33.2
3.8
High
Sulfur
220.0
122.8
97.2
92.5
-
-
20.4
9.3
Total
1006.4
533.1
473.3
277.8
100.1
0.7
56.2
76.9
468.2
578.0
342.1
1518.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B. 1-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.7
64.1
135.8
Low
Sulfur
352.4
185.8
166.7
213.7
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
Medium
Sulfur
619.8
433.1
186.7
0.6
32.4
0.3
47.1
4.0
High
Sulfur
291.5
200.1
91.4
106.9
-
-
36.4
9.7
Total
1263.7
819.0
444.7
321.2
104. 1
0.4
88.7
80.6
574.4
704.1
444.5
1858.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing 48.4 187.2 143.8 95.2
NSPS -
ANSPS - - - 42.2
Oil/Gas Plants 101.8 193.8 108.2 8.8
Total 150.2 381.0 252.0 147.2
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 1,835.9 1,523.6 1,468.7 1,403.9
NSPS - 69.6 72.4 81.4
ANSPS - 21.3 131.9 277.0
Oil/Gas Plants 371.7 364.0 297.6 49.4
Total 2,207.6 1,978.6 1,970.5 1,811.7
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total 3,378.3 4,128.3 3,949.9 3,960.6
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total 3,394.7 2,789.3 2,775.3 2,785.6
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 7,868.0 7,234.8 6,967.1 6,493.9
NSPS - 494.0 503.4 601.3
ANSPS - 186.7 715.2 1,334.3
Oil/Gas Plants 1,262.8 1,361.7 762.0 274.6
Total 9,130.8 9,277.2 8,947.7 8,705.1
2,632.2
-
-
746.1
3,157.6
191.9
80.9
697.9
3,111.3
184.2
351.4
303.0
2,904.5
277.1
609.6
169.5
3,351.5
-
-
43.2
2,366.4
232.5
84.5
106.0
2,243.3
246.8
231.9
53.2
2,090.3
242.8
405.5
46.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
1990
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
do3
1975
6,771.8
-
-
103.4
6,885.2
1,491.5
-
-
41.4
1,532.9
8,263.3
-
-
144.8
8,408.1
203.7
-
-
209.0
412.7
332.9
-
-
25.2
358.1
tons)
1985
5,045.6
409.2
14.2
120.5
5,589.6
1,879.0
417.5
10.0
58.7
2,365.2
6,924.6
826.7
24.2
179.2
7,954.8
150.6
700.7
77.9
734.5
1,663.6
374.8
178.4
32.1
24.6
609.9
1995
4,712.9
447.5
121.8
80.3
5,362.2
1,684.1
419.1
49.1
36.9
2,189.1
6,397.0
866.6
170.9
117.2
7,551.7
150.6
700.7
280.1
251.0
1,382.3
357.8
174.0
127.9
18.7
678.4
4,475.2
471.2
293.0
35.4
5,274.7
1,568.4
436.8
115.5
40.6
2,161.2
6,043.6
908.0
408.5
76.0
7,435.9
62.4
700.7
420.1
280.6
1,463.8
317.6
175.1
213.7
11.3
716.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 81.5 38.3 35.1
NSPS - 17.5 17.6 17.5
ANSPS - 1.2 32.8 95.7
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 159.6 96.2 47.1
Total 195.7 259.8 184.9 195.5
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 456.3 396.1 352.7
NSPS - 195.9 191.6 192.6
ANSPS - 33.3 160.7 309.4
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 184.2 114.9 58.4
Total 553 8 869.7 863.3 912.2
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,766.2 13,910.7 12,952.5
NSPS - 2,217.3 2,262.3 2,402.6
ANSPS - 322.1 1,326.8 2,472.2
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 2,459.6 1,245.1 689.6
Total 18,705.3 19,765.2 18,744.8 18,516.9
Source of current data: EPA, National Emissions Data System,
Computer Printout, May 31, 1975.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3- 4
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
12.1
17.1
4.3
29.2
10.4
9.3
19.8
5.8
2.7
0.9
9.4
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 234.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 14.3
Total 248.7
57.6
5.8
1.4
33.3
52.9
6.0
10.3
26.1
48.1
6.8
22.8
5.0
98.0
95.3
82.7
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 391.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 37.4
Total 428.8
127.3
16.0
4.9
55.1
121.1
15.4
24.5
23.7
110.8
23.1
43.2
14.1
203.2
185.2
191.1
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 503.6
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 1.9
Total 505.5
76.1
19.4
5.1
9.3
109.8
67.6
20.6
16.6
4.5
109.3
63.5
20.2
28.4
4.4
116.4
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,129.7 203.4 252.0 228.2
NSPS 41.2 42.0 50.1
ANSPS 11.4 51.4 97.1
Oil/Gas Plants 57.6 114.8 63.6 24.4
Total 1,187.3 440.2 409.6 399.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.3-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,430.5 161.6 152.1 139.9
NSPS 34.1 37.3 39.3
ANSPS 0.9 7.5 18.1
Oil/Gas Plants 8.6 12.2 8.2 3.7
Total 1,439.1 208.8 205.0 201.0
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 135.9
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 3.8
Total 139.7
46.0
36.1
0.9
5.3
43.0
36.0
4.5
3.6
88.3
87.1
41.8
36.4
10.8
4.1
93.1
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,566.4 207.6 195.1 181.7
NSPS 70.2 73.3 75.7
ANSPS 1.8 12.0 28.9
Oil/Gas Plants 12.4 17.5 11.8 7.8
Total 1,578.8 297.1 292.1 294.1
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
37.9
36.4
6.6
58.4
6.8
62.9
74.3
134.7
6.6
58.4
29.6
21.7
116.2
2.8
58.4
41.0
24.2
126.3
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 132.9
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 3.2
Total 136.1
35.6
28.4
3.8
2.8
33.1
27.8
14.2
2.1
70.6
77.2
29.2
27.6
22.5
1.5
80.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
B.3-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.5
21.8
22.3
4.0
1.5
0.3
16.2
1.5
1.5
3.4
10.0
1.5
1.5
11.9
5.6
21.9
16.4
20.5
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 133.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 25.0
Total 158.4
39.6
29.9
4.1
19.0
34.6
29.3
17.6
12.1
30.7
29.1
34.4
7.1
92.5
93.6
101.2
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 2,867.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 131.4
Total 2,998.9
526.7
199.6
23.9
214.2
488.8
202.9
110.6
109.2
443.3
213.2
201.2
63.3
964.5
911.5
921.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.6
237.1
78.2
80.1
158.3
43.8
54.0
7.0
104.8
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 131.2 431.6 396.8 360.8
NSPS 40.6 42.2 47.5
ANSPS 27.5 205.6 455.9
Oil/Gas Plants 278.3 277.4 233.6 49.0
Total 409.5 777.1 878.2 913.2
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 831.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 425.2
Total 1,267.0
954.5
11 1.9
97.1
350.3
911.9
107.4
490.6
151.0
830.6
161.6
863.4
93.6
1,513.9
1,661.0
1,949.3
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
570.7
135.6
101.4
39.3
493.8
144.0
305.6
18.8
436.5
141.6
527.4
18.9
846.9
962.2
1, 124.4
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,702.3 2,047.1 1,880.7 1,671.7
NSPS 288.1 293.6 350.7
ANSPS 226.0 1,001.8 1,900.7
Oil/Gas Plants 801.0 913.6 483.5 168.5
Total 2,503.3 3,375.0 3,659.7 4,091.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.4-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3 1,203.9 1,131.2 1,035.3
NSPS 238.7 261.1 274.9
ANSPS 17.1 148.0 357.6
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3 122.1 81.3 35.5
Total 2,093.6 1,581.8 1,621.5 1,703.4
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9 304.9 280.6 270.5
NSPS 257.5 258.3 261.0
ANSPS 15.6 85.6 194.6
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7 39.4 25.5 27.9
Total 610.6 617.4 649.9 754.0
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing 2,403.2
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 301.0
Total 2,704.2
1,508.8
496.2
32.7
161.5
1,411.8
519.4
233.6
106.8
1,305.8
535.9
552.2
63.4
2,199.2
2,271.4
2,457.4
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 106.7 66.3 66.3 24.5
NSPS 423.7 423.8 423.8
ANSPS 153.4 611.2 800.8
Oil/Gas Plants 757.3 549.0 189.2 211.4
Total 864.0 1,192.5 1,290.4 1,460.4
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
344.0
73.8
417.8
294.0
198.6
70.2
21.7
584.4
274.2
194.5
254.5
17.5
740.8
245.6
193.3
395.1
10.1
844.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.4-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 44.7 35.0 13.6 13.6
NSPS 10.2 10.3 10.2
ANSPS 5.9 57.9 200.3
Oil/Gas Plants 276.3 204.4 121.0 52.9
Total 321.0 255.5 202.8 277.1
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 388.7 329.0 287.8 259.2
NSPS 208.8 204.8 203.5
ANSPS 76.1 312.4 595.4
Oil/Gas Plants 350.1 228.1 138.5 63.0
Total 738.8 839.9 943.6 1,121.2
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 4,600.8 3,951.5 3,646.5 3,261.2
NSPS 1,416.9 1,441.5 1,513.8
ANSPS 488.1 2,159.1 3,849.2
Oil/Gas Plants 2,209.4 1,750.1 918.0 506.4
Total 6,811.2 7,606.5 8,165.0 9,130.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.5-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
16.1
10.5
4.0
1.6
5.8
5.8
3.3
21.3
9.8
4.1
7.4
3.0
9.8
3.4
26.6
8
4
13
1.9
13.5
3.4
.9
.3
.4
19.2
31.0
37.4
45.3
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48
32
9
10
52
19
19
11
57
8
26
9
59
4
30
8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.6-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
1975
2.371
1985
2.866
1990
1.549
1995
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.112
0.464
0.962
1.201
0.239
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
0.031
0.169
0.350
0.129
0.679
East North Central 0.317
West North Central 0.289
MIDWEST 0.606
West South Central 2.162
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162
Mountain 0.249
Pacific 0.787
WEST 1.036
1.591
1.591
0.108
0.672
0.780
0.558
0.558
0.079
0.420
0.499
0.619
0.619
0.064
0.249
0.313
TOTAL
6.175
5.793
2.992
1.880
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.7-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change in Rates From Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
1985
4.5 (0.11)
(50.2) (0.04)
55.1) (0.16)
82.7 (0.36)
92.1
1990
1995
12
83
305
191
593
.9
.7
.5
.2
.3
(0
(0
(0
(1
.26)
71)
.96)
.22)
36
438
343
335
1,153
.6
.2
.0
.9
.7
(0
(1
(1
(1
.62)
.62)
.36)
.34)
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
64.1 (0.41)
39.0 (0.53)
103.0
85.3 (0.63)
85.3
692.1 (1.38)
(450.9)(0.37)
241.2
884.3 (4.76)
884.3
984.5
(557.3)
427.2
(1.67)
(1.38)
799.0 (3.21)
799.0
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
(112.3) (0.32)
169.6 (1.14)
57.0
197.8 (2.91) 126.6 (1.48)
121.7 (0.82) 135.4 (0.84)
319.5 262.0
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
337.3 (0.32) 2,038.3 (1.51) 2,641.9 (1.55)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 4,399.1
Objective Function 304.2
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function 3,967.4
23,183.2
1,867.6
21,232.0
28,601.7
3,173.2
32,939.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTION
RELATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARD
do3
Northeast
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
tons)
1985
_
44.9
98.1
100.3
253.2
50.4
(5.5)
45.0
186.0
186.0
81.3
(9.2)
72.1
556.5
1990
12.9
255.7
540.3
428.5
1,237.5
(8.8)
222.7
213.7
863.3
863.3
330.2
52.3
382.5
2,697.2
1995
55.9
481.7
1,055.8
741.0
2,334.5
77.9
398.9
476.9
1,155.1
1,155.1
558.6
213.3
771.9
4,738.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.9-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AVERAGE COST PER TON OF SO REMOVAL
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
( 1 0 $/ton removal )
(1978 $'s)
1985
0.5 Lb. Floor
0.36
2.29
RAL 0.46
0.79
0.61
1990
With
0.48
1.13
1.02
0.84
0.76
1995
Exemptions
0.49
0.90
0.69
0.34
0.56
0.5 Lb. Floor Without Exemption
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
0.65
0.35
0.79
0.80
0.69
0.71
3.56
1.04
0.84
0.94
0.79
0.86
0.77
0.41
0.73
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.10-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
TOTAL
158.2
211.1
22.9
176.9
215.7
20.9
255.5
179.2
15.4
354.3
166.8
12.9
392.1
138.6
8.5
45.2
53.7
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
634.6
413.5
227.8
23.5
303.9
327.4
149.0
450.0
315.6
30.5
521.6
552.1
199.8
543.1
390.1
32.1
718.9
750.9
8.2
57.7
45.8
33.6
3.7
10.2
71.8
54.5
59.4
3.7
15.1
61.8
51.7
54.0
1.0
183.5
1,117.7 1,517.3 1,858.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
0. J.J.»
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
158.1
17.0
74.1
85.5
0.3
176.9
21.5
89.6
144.0
0.4
255.5
28.9
125.2
196.7
0.6
354.3
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
211.1
128.7
12.6
54.9
19.6
215.7
125.4
4.2
31.1
18.4
179.2
129.3
0.1
19.5
17.9
166.8
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
-
4.7
12.1
4.1
5.8
4.4
5.1
6.1
1.4
5.5
22.9
20.9
15.4
12.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.7
150.5
12.8
150.4
86.7
152.5
23.9
152.8
93.8
179.5
24.0
164.3
125.2
220.5
24.0
392.1
413.5
450.0
534.1
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.1
-
164.3
62.6
0.9
242.2
72.3
1.0
310.8
78.2
1.1
138.6
8.6
227.8
23.5
315.6
30.5
390.1
0.3
7.8
0.4
0.3
21.5
1.6
0.3
24.0
6.1
-
24.5
7.6
32.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B. U-4
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
90.9
213.0
303.9
171.2
350.4
521.6
271.6
447.3
718.9
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
112.5
214.6
327.4
0.3
195.2
356.5
552.1
296.0
454.9
750.9
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.8
-
0.3
5.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
6.5
2.7
0.9
0.6
9.0
4.3
1.1
9.5
8.2
10.2
15.1
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71.8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
4.0
9.5
32.1
45.8
4.2
9.3
41.0
54.5
1.8
10.8
39.1
51.7
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
17.5
33.6
16.9
42.6
59.4
3.0
51.0
54.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
B.ll-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.7
0.8
4.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
1.0
1.0
WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
30.4
11.7
4.3
5.8
88.6
50.3
4.4
6.5
104.4
84.5
2.4
9.0
80.9
91.2
53.7
149.0
199.8
183.5
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
101.7
147.8
197.0
62.5
154.6
257.1
416.2
289.7
157.2
342.8
551.3
466.0
166.7
445.1
675.6
571.3
509.0
1,117.7
1,517.3
1,858.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Midwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.97
1. 12
1.57
1. 11
1.21
1.57
1.37
0.95
1.32
1.62
1.06
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.42
0.92
1.06
1.01
0.43
0.52
0.49
1. 13
1.23
1.69
1.24
1.38
1.69
1.62
1. 13
1.41
1.73
1.20
0.42
0.42
0.47
0.43
1.00
1.15
1. 10
0.40
0.54
0.49
1.23
1.32
1.77
1.33
1.01
1.20
1.54
1.45
1.21
1.38
1.67
1.62
1.33
1.52
1.75
1.74
1.55
1.78
1.78
1.23
1.48
1.83
1.29
0.42
0.58
0.46
1.07
1.28
1. 19
0.42
0.56
0.51
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
D.J
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.05
1.27
1.48
1. 16
1.19
1.37
1.58
1.29
1.26
1.46
1.68
1.39
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
National Average
0.48
0.48
1.03
1.25
1.25
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.96
0.80
1.03
0.84
0.84
1.09
1.22
1.25
0.58 0.79
0.61 0.73
0.60 0.75
0.88
0.88
1.13
0.99
0.76
1.06
1. 12
1.12
1.16
1.37
1.35
1.21
0.90
0.92
1.03
1.03
1.23
1.03
0.79
1.10
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast. ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.258
0.039
0.297
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.316
0.987
0.056
1.359
0.398
1.414
0.052
1.864
0.462
2. 103
0.052
2.617
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.789
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1.328
0.980
1.991
0.281
3.252
1.015
0.675
0.557
1.499
2.634
0.241
4.374
1.218
1.149
0.501
2.086
3. 130
0.339
5.555
1.613
1.572
0.379
2.247
2.869
3.564
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
4.239
2.546
3.659
0.874
7.079
3.315
5.205
0.794
9.315
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.052
1.971
0.947
3.971
1.447
1.858
0.981
4.286
2.051
1.820
0.920
4.790
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.388
0.736
0.577
1.700
0.374
0.757
0.750
1.882
0.368
0.823
1.091
2.281
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B. 13-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
MIDWEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
0.119
1.440
2.707
1.524
5.671
0.038
0.726
0.991
1.755
1.821
2.615
1.731
6.168
0.010
1.673
1.588
3.271
2.419
2.643
2.011
7.071
0.001
2.036
1.917
3.954
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
0.718
0.815
1.533
1.110
1.057
2.166
1.473
1.161
2.633
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.063
0.225
0.288
0.029
0.825
0.854
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.684
,797
.864
1.661
1.173
1.282
2.455
1.502
1.986
3.487
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
4.025
7.888
4.210
16.123
5.147
10.667
5.396
21.210
6.839
13.024
6.683
26.546
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS.
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990 1995
Northeast
High Sulfur 1.32 1.46 1.55
Medium Sulfur 1.99 2.07 1.87
Low Sulfur - - -
Regional Average 1.34 1.49 1.59
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.21 1.40 1.49
Medium Sulfur 1.46 1.58 1.68
Low Sulfur 1.86 1.99 2.10
Regional Average 1.42 1.55 1.65
South Atlantic
High Sulfur 1.21 1.45 1.56
Medium Sulfur 1.62 1.72 1.79
Low Sulfur 1.82 1.94 2.04
Regional Average 1.51 1.64 1.72
East North Central
High Sulfur 1.15 1.34 1.45
Medium Sulfur 1.52 1.61 1.70
Low Sulfur 1.70 1.79 1.83
Regional Average 1.47 1.56 1.62
East South Central
High Sulfur 1.15 1.32 1.43
Medium Sulfur 1.47 1.40 1.43
Low Sulfur 1.78 1.87 1.98
Regional Average 1.40 1.45 1.49
West North Central
High Sulfur 1.08 1.25 1.35
Medium Sulfur 0.99 1.00 1.02
Low Sulfur 1.18 1.19 1.24
Regional Average 1.08 1.13 1.18
West South Central
High Sulfur 1.22 1.43 1.54
Medium Sulfur 1.08 1.10 1.23
Low Sulfur 1.39 1.48 1.56
Regional Average 0.85 1.28 1.39
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS.
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 btu)
1985 1990 1995
Mountain
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.55 0.76 0.84
Low Sulfur 0.85 0.92 0.95
Regional Average 0.71 0.84 0.89
Pacific
High Sulfur -
Medium Sulfur 0.97 1.03 1.19
Low Sulfur 1.04 1.14 1.26
Regional Average 1.00 1.12 1.26
National Total
High Sulfur 1.17 1.37 1.48
Medium Sulfur 1.26 1.40 1.47
Low Sulfur 1.40 1.43 1.45
National Average 1.28 1.40 1.47
NOTE:Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MK3TV FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
6
( 1C tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Industrial
f*etal lurgical
Residential/Coa
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Nev
Conversions
Total
Total
3ituoLinou5 Subbituminous
3.2
-
erctal 0.3
30.5 15.7
18.0 6.0
4.2
48.5 25.9
52.0 25.9
Lignite Total
3.2
-
0.3
46.3
23.9
4.2
74.4
_
77.9
Metallurgical Bituminous
13.2
4.7 2.6
0.2
23.0
25.8
48.9
0.4 2.9
5.1 67.8
Subbituou.nous
64.4
-
-
9. 7
35.7
118. 6
9.4
163.7
-
237.7
Lignite Total
77.6
7.2
0.2
17.6 27.3
,16.0 74.7
47.6 192.1
9.4
63.6 276.2
3.3
31.2 391.8
Total
80.8
7.2
0.5
27.3
121.0
216.0
13.6
350.6
3.3
469.7
o
Tl
z
o
o
x
TJ
O
co v
to i-t
TJ (D
ft t->
f?
0
-» n
ID P)
»j i-n
00 rt
I
.b.
m
o
-------
1990 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
C.5. LB. SO /HMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
6
(10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituminous
Industrial - 5.0
Metallurgical 0.5
Residential/
Coonercial - 0.1
Synthetics -
Utilities
Existing - 28.9 14.6
New - 23.2 38.6
Total - 52.1 59.4
Total 0.5 57.2 59.4
Lignite Total
5.0
0.5
0.1
-
43.5
61.8
6.2
111.5
_ _
117.1
Metallurgical Bituminous
14.4
5.1 2.7
0. 1
1.6
19.7
68.0
87.7
0.4 3.0
5.5 109.5
Subbituminous
156.8
-
-
23.8
30.3
196.9
9.4
236.7
.
417.2
Lignite
-
-
12.2
16.3
73.7
90.0
-
102.2
To-_e '.
171. i
7 . c
0. 1
37.*
66.3
338. e
5.4
414.2
2 . :_
634.5
7c'_al
176.2
8.2
0.3
37.6
109.8
400.4
15.6
525.8
3.5
'S1.6
o
Tl
z
o
o
3
-o
O
w U
cp ^
o »
rt I
3 3
sr?
o
-. n
vl Ml
o> r*
m
o
-------
1995 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
-.5 LB. SO /MJfflTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
!1C~ tons',
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Indust.ru 1
Metallurgical
Resident ia 1/Concerc Lai
Synthet ics
Dtilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
pit-tin-, inni"; Siibbi tucinous Lignite Total Metallurgical
5.3 - - 5.8 -
- - 4.4
G.I - - 0.1
-
28.0 11.1 - 39.1
18.8 59.0 - 77.8
10.4 - 10.4
46.8 80.5 - 127.3
0.5
Bituminous
17
2
0
4
15
70
-
85
3
.7
.7
. 1
.8
.6
.2
.8
. 1
SubbituninouB
181 .7
-
-
37.9
34.5
324.6
9.4
368.5
-
Lignite Total
199
7
0
12.2 55
5.3 55
76.3 471
9
81.6 535
3
.4
. 1
. 1
.0
.4
.0
.4
.9
.6
Total
2&S
7
0
55
94
546
19
663
3
.3
. 1
. 1
.0
.5
.8
.8
.2
.6
52.7
80.5
133.2
4.8
114.2
588.1
93.8
801 .0
934.2
o
to ^
»o
ft »-
z
o
o
03
o
O
3J
5
m
O
*-J ^
00 rf
CD
-------
WESTER:. COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(TO6 tons)
Consuming Region
New
England
Midlde
Atlantic
South
Atlantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
Total
1985
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
31.1
19.4
50.5
0.6
26.7
27.3
0.6
57.8
19.4
77.8
1990
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
36.2
18.7
54.9
1.4
60.8
62.2
1.4
97.0
18.7
117.1
1995
o
O
O
3D
T)
S
5
m
o
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
36.8
14.2
51.0
1.1
81 .1
82.2
1.1
117.9
14.2
133.2
13 (0
\o o>
^1 Ml
03 f+
CD
-------
B.17-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal**
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
37.2
183.6
192.1
147.3
2.7
42. 1
68.3
482.8
98.5
309.6
197
81
30
224.7
145
4
74
84.4
717.2
(66
(60
.9)
.4)
.9 (61.2)
.2 (
58.3)
.5 (60.4)
(26
.3
.8
.6
(44
(48
.1)
.9)
.4)
167
439
.3
.0
197
83
158
177
1
87
871
.3
12
4
60
.8
.4
(66.9)
(55.8)
.9
.1
.0
(
. 1
.8
.4
(56.9)
(57.8)
(53.4)
16.0)
(44.0)
(48.4)
230.0
580.2
197
83
299
158.0
78
4
75
89.5
1,057.7
(66
(52
.9)
.6)
.9 (51.
.1 (61.
.2 (
(10
.2
.8
.0
(43
(48
51.
.4)
.5)
.5)
4)
2)
1)
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
8
38
40
14
14
43
31
12
19
50
20
10
22
55
15
8
* Effective capacity.
** Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1,
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 S's)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1985 1990
1995
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
147.3
62.7 (61.3)
74.2 (111.7)
54.0 (81.2)
20.1 (30.5)
10.4 (40.1)
0.9 (2.1)
9.5 (38.0)
5.3
105.0
8.4 (95.1)
2.3 (35.0)
3.7 (30.5)
2.4 (29.6)
0.3
266.3
1,022.8
666.2
659.0
664.3
428.6
250.0
259.4
65.7
121.3
81.1
88.3
303.4
132.6 (130.1)
160.1 (241.1)
55.3 (83.1)
104.7 (158.0)
10.7 (41.3)
0.9 (2.1)
9.8 (39.2)
6.6
176.1
23.6 (223.3)
2.3 (34.8)
18.9 (158.0)
2.4 (35.0)
0.4
510.1
1,019.2
665.5
662.7
664.0
428.6
250.0
259.1
66.1
119.6
78.7
105.7
465.4
196.9 (192.8)
255.9 (382.3)
55.3 (83.1)
200.6 (299.2)
12.5 (48.7)
0.9 (2.1)
11.7 (46.6)
6.8
265.4
41.6 (368.1)
2.4 (38.4)
36.8 (299.2)
2.4 (30.5)
0.5
779.6
1,021.3
665.5
670.5
669.4
428.6
251.1
256.7
62.5
123.3
78.7
113.0
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary L):ULL
September 1, 1978
K CAPACITY UNDEK ALTERATIVE STANDARD OF
AND PEKCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
0.5 LKS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
(GW)
1985
GW (%)
1990
GW
1995
GW
Ncw_ Kny Innd
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
3.315 (79.9) 3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.9)
2.427 (40.9)
1.650 (90.0)
3.315 (79.8)
2.427 (40.5)
14.262 (90.0)
5.239 (90.0)
3.315 (79.8)
3.315 (79.8)
5.239 (90.0)
2
1
5
2
.245
.650
.333
.427
(90
(90
(34
(40
.0)
.0)
.1)
.9)
2
14
5
2
.245
.262
.328
.427
(90.
(90.
(34.
(40.
0)
0)
1)
5)
2.
39.
5.
2.
245
576
321
427
(90.
(90.
(38.
(40.
0)
0)
1)
5)
2.427 (40.5)
39.576 (90.0)
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Exi sting
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Ex istiny
NSPS
ANSPS
2.555 (90.0)
6.226 (90.0)
6.485 (47.1)
2.042 (59.9)
9.040 (59.2)
2.042 (59.9)
6.226 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
39.941 (90.0)
6.943 (4C-..5)
2.127 (52.5)
9.498 (58.2)
2.127 (52.5)
39.941 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
66.789 (90.0)
6.936 (46.5)
3.073 (47.2)
9.491 (58.2)
3.073 (47.2)
66.789 (90.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCKU13UER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
ANI> PERCKNT OF SO. REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
(GW)
1985
GW (%)
1990
GW
1995
GW
S t South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
C.i parity Partially Scrubbed
Kx i s t i nq
NSI1::
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
5.925 (90.0) 23.425 (90.0)
3.OHO (40.7)
3.001 (40.7)
3.086 (40.7) 3.081 (40.7)
5.925 (90.0) 23.425 (90.0)
39.839 (90.0)
(33.6)
4.279 (33.6)
39.839 (90.0)
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
13.801 (90.0) 77..62S (90.0)
15.133 (49.7) 15.640 (49.2)
7.555 (46.0) 7.635 (43.9)
19.933 (59.4)
7.555 (46.0)
13.801 (90.0)
20.440 (58.8)
7.635 (43.9)
77.628 (90.0)
4.800 (90.0)
151.443 (90.0)
15.572 (50.7)
9.779 (38.8)
20.372 (60.0)
9.779 (38.8)
151.443 (90.0)
-
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Ex isting
NSPS
AN SPG
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Ex is ting
NSPS
ANSPS
1.590 (90.0) 9.590 (90.0) 24.410 (90.0)
4.356 (38.4)
7.486 (27.7)
4.356 (38.4)
7.486 (27.7)
4.685 (45.6)
7.481 (27.7)
0.880 (60.2)
4.865 (35.6)
7.481 (27.7)
4.860 (35.6)
8.919 (27.7)
2.520 (60.2)
4.860 (35.6)
8.919 (27.7)
1.590 (90.0) 10.470 (87.5) 26.930 (87.2)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.iy-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
h_ Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSFS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.250 (90.0)
0.588 (33.2)
5.001 (27.2)
1.547 (60.2)
0.588 (33.2)
5.001 (27.2)
1.797 (64.3)
0.878 (90.0)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.283 (60.2)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
8.161 (63.4)
1.828 (90.0)
0.581 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
15.195 (60.2)
0.581 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
17.023 (63.4)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1.840 (90.0) 10.468 (90.0)
4.944 (37.8)
12.487 (27.7)
1.547 (60.2)
4.949 (37.8)
12.487 (27.7)
3.387 (76.4)
5.450 (35.3)
12.482 (27.7)
8.163 (60.2)
5.450 (35.3)
12.482 (27.7)
18.631 (76.9)
26.238 (90.0)
5.441 (90.0)
13.920 (27.7)
17.715 (60.2)
5.441 (35.3)
13.920 (27.7)
43.953 (78.0)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
5.135 (90.0) 23.761 (90.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
2.720 (60.2)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
7.855 (79.7)
1.109 (64.1)
5.253 (64.1)
20.354 (60.2)
1.109 (64.1)
5.253 (64.1)
44.115 (76.3)
29.324 (90.0)
1.108 (64.1)
5.364 (63.0)
30.410 (60.2)
1.108 (64.1)
5.364 (63.0)
59.734 (74.8)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft B.19-4
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Kxistinq
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632 (90.0)
2.440 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.681 (43.0)
2.720 (60.2)
3.587 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
5.160 (74.3)
0.331 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
10.382 (90.0)
3.579 (27.7)
6.490 (38.9)
7.382 (60.2)
3.579 (27.7)
9.319 (54.4)
17.764 (77.6)
0.331 (90.0)
0.762 (90.0)
0.100 (27.7)
3.104 (60.2)
0.100 (27.7)
3.866 (66.1)
2.828 (90.0)
16.863 (90.0)
3.571 (27.7)
6.483 (38.7)
10.812 (60.2)
3.571 (27.7)
9.311 (54.3)
27.675 (78.4)
7.463 (90.0)
8.848 (60.2)
16.311 (73.8)
REST OK WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632 (90.0)
2.771 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.681 (43.0)
2.720 (60.2)
3.587 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
5.491 (75.2)
2.829 (90.0)
11.144 (90.0)
3.579 (27.7)
6.590 (38.7)
10.486 (60.2)
3.579 (27.7)
9.419 (54.1)
21.630 (75.6)
2.828 (90.0)
24.326 (90.0)
3.571 (27.7)
6.483 (38.7)
19.660 (60.2)
3.571 (27.7)
9.311 (54.3)
43.986 (76.7)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LBS. SO MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
NATIONAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800 (90.0)
2.632 (90.0)
23.546 (90.0)
24.744 (44.7)
32.368 (40.9)
6.987 (60.2)
29.574 (52.1)
35.000 (44.6)
30.533 (83.2)
4.800 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
119.002 (90.0)
25.723 (44.0)
31.960 (39.8)
39.003 (60.2)
30.523 (51.2)
34.789 (43.9)
158.005 (82.6)
4.800 (90.0)
2.828 (90.0)
231.386 (90.0)
25.691 (44.8)
35.547 (38.3)
67.785 (60.2)
30.491 (51.9)
38.375 (42.1)
299.171 (83.2)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
10 Tons)
B.1-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.1
124.1
Low
Sulfur
218.3
34.5
183.8
88.7
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
368.4
158.5
209.8
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.8
3.7
High
Sulfur
166.3
65.7
100.6
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
752.9
258.7
494.4
157.6
96.0
1.5
29.6
73.3
310.1
429.9
246.8
1110.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.9
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
302.0
120.5
181.5
184.7
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
492.3
Medium
Sulfur
543.5
345.9
197.6
0.3
31.4
0.5
33.0
3.9
612.7
High
Sulfur
160.6
62.9
97.7
91.7
-
-
20.2
9.2
281.7
Total
1006.1
529.3
476.9
276.7
100.3
0.7
55.8
76.9
1516.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.8
64.1
135.9
Low
Sulfur
419.8
250.3
169.6
213.6
-
0.1
5.3
2.9
Medium
Sulfur
692.5
524.2
168.3
-
32.6
0.3
44.9
4.0
High
Sulfur
163.3
67.6
95.6
106.7
-
-
37.7
9.7
Total
1275.6
842.1
433.5
320.4
104.4
0.4
87.9
80.7
641.7
774.3
317.4
1869.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
187.2
193.8
148.2
108.2
150.2
381.0
256.4
122.6
22.7
31.4
175.7
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9
371.7
2,207.6
1,523.8
69.6
13.8
366.7
1,973.9
1,469.6
79.0
108.4
305.6
1,962.6
1,404.8
105.2
244.3
49.4
1,803.7
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,632.2
746.1
3,378.3
3,156.3
263.7
33.0
707.6
3,118.6
265.5
240.9
310.7
2,948.8
290.7
474.9
180.6
4,160.5
3,935.7
3,895.0
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2
Total 3,394.7
2,373.6
262.6
41 .0
108.2
2,264.9
265.4
172.0
56.2
2,171.5
237.2
316.4
46.9
2,785.3
2,758.5
2,772.0
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,868.0
1 ,262.8
9,130.8
7,240.9
595.9
87.8
1,376.3
9,300.9
7,001.3
609.9
521.3
780.7
8,913.2
6,647.7
633.1
1,058.3
308.3
8,647.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 5,060.8 4,839.8 4,433.6
NSPS 408.9 463.4 464.1
ANSPS 5.0 64.4 197.4
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 128.6 82.5 36.6
Total 6,885.2 5,603.3 5,450.0 5,131.6
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4
Total 1,532.9
1,912.5
399.5
8.1
58.6
1,720.3
419.1
47.8
36.8
1,573.0
432.9
115.1
40.0
2,378.7
2,223.9
2, 161.0
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Total
9,263.3
144.8
6,973.3
808.4
13.1
187.2
6,560.1
882.5
112.2
119.3
6,006.6
897.0
312.5
76.6
8,408.1
7,982.0
7,674.1
7,292.7
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
203.7
209.0
412.7
150.6
700.7
74.5
741.0
150.6
699.3
277.5
251 .0
62.4
700.7
414.5
280.6
1,666.7
1,378.3
1,458.2
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
332.9
25.2
358.1
374.8
178.4
32.1
24.6
357.8
174.0
127.9
18.7
316.4
175.1
214. 1
11.3
609.9
678.4
716.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 81.5 38.3 35.1
NSPS 17.5 17.6 17.5
ANSPS 1-2 32.8 95.5
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 159.6 96.2 47.1
Total 195.7 259.8 184.9 195.2
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 456.3 396.1 351.5
MSPS 195.9 191.6 192.6
ANSPS 33.3 160.7 309.6
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 184.2 114.9 58.4
Total 553.8 869.7 863.3 912.1
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,821.8 14,108.0 13,067.1
NSPS 2,300.9 2,383.2 2,423.5
ANSPS 208.6 1,071.6 2,094.8
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 2,488.6 1,265.9 724.0
Total 18,705.3 19,819.1 18,828.7 18,309.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.3-5
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
4.3
12.1
17.1
29.2
10.4
9.3
19.8
8.3
2.0
2.8
13.1
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 234.4 57.6 52.9 48.5
NSPS 5.8 6.6 8.8
ANSPS 1.2 9.7 21.9
Oil/Gas Plants 14.3 33.6 26.8 5.0
Total 248.7 98.2 96.0 84.2
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
391 .4
37.4
127.2
22.0
3.0
55.9
124.0
22. 1
21.7
24.3
111.0
24.2
42.7
14.9
428.8
208.0
192.2
192.8
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
503.6
1.9
505.5
76.6
21.9
3.7
9.6
111.8
68.7
22.1
15.5
4.9
111.2
65.0
19.8
28.5
4.4
117.7
EAST
Coal Plants
Ex J st Lmj
NSPS
ANSPS
oi l/il.-is P) ant.s
Tot-.il
1, 129.7
57.6
1, 1H7.3
273.5
49.7
7.9
116.2
447.3
256.0
50.8
46.9
65.3
419.0
232.8
52.8
95.1
27.1
407.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,430.5 162.2 156.7 141.4
NSPS 34.1 38.6 38.7
ANSPS 0.4 5.8 18.1
Oil/Gas Plants 8.6 13.1 8.4 3.8
Total 1,439.1 209.8 209.6 202.0
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 135.9 47.5 43.0 41.7
NSPS 34.6 35.9 36.4
ANSPS 0.8 4.5 10.8
Oil/Gas Plants 3.8 5.3 3.5 4.0
Total 139.7 88.2 86.9 93.0
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,566.4
12.4
207.7
68.7
1.2
18.4
199.7
74.5
10.3
11.9
183.1
75.1
28.9
7.8
1,578.8
298.0
296.5
294.9
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
37.9
36.4
6.6
58.4
6.8
63.4
6.6
58.4
29.6
21.6
2.8
58.4
40.8
24.1
74.3
135.3
116.2
126.1
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 132.9 35.6 33.1 29.2
NSPS 28.4 27.8 27.6
ANSPS 3.8 14.2 22.5
Oil/Gas Plants 3.2 2.8 2.1 1.5
Total 136.1 70.6 77.2 80.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Of
0.5 LB. SO./MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 0.5 3.9 1.5 1.5
NSPS 1.5 1.5 1.5
ANSPS 0.3 3.4 11.9
Oil/Gas Plants 21.8 16.3 10.0 5.6
Total 22.3 22.0 16.4 20.5
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 133.4 39.5 34.6 30.7
NSPS 29.9 29.3 29.1
ANSPS 4.1 17.6 34.4
Oil/Gas Plants 25.0 19.1 12.1 7.1
Total 158.4 92.6 93.6 101.3
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 2,867.5 529.3 495.0 449.4
NSPS 206.6 213.0 215.3
ANSPS 20.0 104.5 199.3
Oil/Gas Plants 131 .4 217.0 111.1 66.2
Total 2,998.9 972.9 925.6 930.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.6
237.1
78.2
80.1
62.0
40.9
23.9
158.3
126.8
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
131.2
278.3
409.5
431.6
40.6
24.8
280.0
397.0
46.1
194.8
239.5
364.0
61.4
438.8
49.0
777.2
877.4
913. 1
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
831.8
425.2
1,267.0
954.0
153.8
59.3
354.8
930.2
154.9
433.9
154.6
832.7
169.6
853.2
98.4
1,521.8
1,673.6
1,953.9
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
574.5
153.2
73.7
40.2
508.2
154.8
274.1
20.0
477.4
138.4
497.2
18.9
841.6
957.2
1,131.9
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,702.3 2,050.6 1,913.6 1,736.2
NSPS 347.6 355.8 369.4
ANSPS 157.8 902.8 1,830.1
Oil/Gas Plants 801.0 821.6 494.2 190.2
Total 2,503.3 3,377.6 3,666.4 4,125.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO./MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3
Total 2,093.6
1,209.8
238.6
8.9
130.3
1,587.4
1,164.2
270.3
112.2
83.4
1,630.1
1,043.5
270.8
334.0
36.6
1,684.9
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
494.9
115.7
610.6
319.7
247.0
13.3
39.4
282.30
257.5
84.0
25.4
272.2
261.0
199.5
27.6
619.4
649.3
760.3
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,403.2
301 .0
1,529.5
485.6
22.2
169.7
1,446.5
527.8
196.2
108.8
1,315.7
531.8
533.5
64.2
2,704.2
2,207.0
2,279.3
2,445.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 106.7
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 757.J3
Total 864.0
66.3
423.7
151.7
553.8
66.3
423.6
610.3
189.2
24.5
423.8
797.0
211 .4
1, 195.6
1,289.4
1,456.6
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
344.0
73.8
417.8
294.0
198.6
70.2
21.6
584.4
274.2
194.5
254.5
17.5
740.8
245.6
193.3
395.0
10.1
844.1
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.4-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
44.7
276.3
321.0
35.0
10.2
5.8
204.4
255.4
13.6
10.2
57.9
121.0
202.7
13.6
10.2
199.9
52.9
276.6
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
388.7
350.1
738.8
326.0
208.8
76.0
226.0
839.8
287.8
204.7
312.4
138.5
943.5
259.2
203.4
594.9
63.0
1,120.7
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
4,600.8
2,209.4
6,811.2
3,975.5
1,465.7
407.8
1,771.2
7,620.1
3,714.4
1,512.0
2,021.7
930.8
8,178.9
3,335.6
1,528.4
3,755.6
528.8
9,148.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.5-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
9.3
9.3
-
-
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
16.0
10.6
4.1
1.3
5.9
5.8
3.3
31.0
51.6
19.0
18.7
10.6
21.2
9.9
4.3
7.0
3.0
9.8
3.4
37.4
56.7
8.0
26.2
9.1
26.6
9.0
4.3
13.3
1.9
13.4
3.4
45.4
58.6
4.2
29.5
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.6-5
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.112
2.371
0.464
0.971
1.220
0.256
2.911
0.240
0.713
0.518
0.128
1.599
0.079
0.169
0.365
0.129
0.742
0.317
0.289
0.606
0.423
0.162
0.585
0.275
0.117
0.392
0.131
0.141
0.272
0.249
0.787
1.036
6.175
1.605
1.605
5.880
3.049
0.619
0.619
0.064
0.249
0.313
1.945
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.7-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
New England
Middle Atlantic
Soutli Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
1985
(49.7) (0.06)
164.0 (0.49)
35.4 (1.11)
149.7
18.0 (0.45)
(24.2) (0.11)
(6.2)
144.3 (0.72)
144.3 (0.72)
(111.5) (0.30)
169.3 (1.13)
57.8
345.5 (0.33)
1990
9.0 (0.17)
129.7 (1.14)
586.2 (1.88)
184.0 (1.70)
1995
908.9
810.2 (1.69)
(485.6) (0.19)
324.6
901.0 (4.76)
901.0 (4.76)
199.5
121.8
321.3
(2.94)
(0.82)
182.9
561.1
713.8
421.4
1,879.2
1, 103.2
(568.8)
534.4
(3
(2
(2
(1
.19)
,32)
,47)
,73)
(2.10)
(1.34)
889.6 (3.58)
889.6 (3.58)
163.9 (3.58)
152.8 (0.96)
2,455.9 (1.84)
316.7
3,619.9 (2.13)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 4,506.0
Objective Function 384.7
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function 5,017.3
27,811.5
2,076.2
23,696.3
38,253.3
3,825.5
39,380.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTION
RELATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARD
Northeast
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
(103 $'S)
1985
-
49.6
65.9
114.3
229.8
36.7
(19.0)
17.7
182.9
182.9
81.3
(9.2)
72.1
502.6
1990
8.5
263.6
554.5
445.3
1,271.9
(96.2)
187.5
91.3
867.3
867.3
330.2
52.3
382.5
2,613.3
1995
27.4
489.7
1,121.4
754.6
2,392.1
221.0
339.1
620.1
1,160.7
1,160.7
558.4
213.6
772. 0
4,945.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.10-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Northern Appalachia 158.2 177.0 266.3 355.6
Central Appalachia 211.1 216.2 184.9 175.1
Southern Appalachia 22.9 21.3 16.1 13.7
APPALACHIA 392.1 414.6 467.3 544.3
MIDWEST 138.6 220.3 275.3 325.5
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5 23.5 30.3 35.3
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2 307.7 541.2 782.4
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7 331.2 571.5 817.8
Central West 9.5 8.2 9.7 14.4
Gulf 10.0 57.7 71.8 61.8
Rockies 14.0 45.4 56.2 53.0
Southwest 15.7 33.9 59.7 54.0
Northwest 4.5 3.7 3.7 0.9
REST OF WEST 50.0 149.0 201.1 184.1
TOTAL 634.6 1,115.8 1,515.2 1,871.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LH. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
B.ll-5
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
17.4
73.0
86.3
0.3
24.1
76.2
165.4
0.5
31.9
91.8
231 .3
0.6
158.2
177.0
266.3
355.6
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
129.3
12.6
54.7
19.6
129.0
4.2
33.3
18.5
134.1
-
22.6
18.4
211.1
216.2
184.9
175.1
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
-
4.7
12.1
4.5
5.9
4.6
5.5
6.1
1.6
6.1
22.9
21.3
16.1
13.7
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.8
150.5
12.8
151.5
85.6
153.1
24.3
159.0
80.4
203.4
24.5
172.1
91.8
255.4
25.0
392.2
414.6
467.3
544.3
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
131.6
7.0
138.6
157.2
62.1
1.0
220.3
196.5
77.7
1.1
275.3
235.5
88.9
1.1
325.5
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur 0.3
Medium Sulfur 7.8
Low Sulfur 0.4
Total 8.5
0.3
21.6
1.6
23.5
0.3
24.0
6.0
30.3
24.9
10.4
35.3
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
91.2
216.5
307.7
173.4
367.7
541.2
272.4
510.0
782.4
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
0.3
112.8
218.1
0.3
197.4
373.7
-
297.3
520.4
53.7
331.2
571.5
817.8
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.7
-
0.3
5.7
1.5
0.7
0.3
5.2
3.2
1.0
0.6
7.7
5.0
1.1
9.4
8.2
9.7
14.4
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71.8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.3
14.0
4.0
9.4
32.1
4.2
9.7
42.2
45.4
56.2
1.8
11.5
39.6
53.0
Southwest
Metallurg ical
Hiyh Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
16.0
17.9
33.9
16.9
42.9
59.7
3.0
51.0
54.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.11-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.7
0.8
4.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
0.9
0.9
REST OF WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
30.4
11.6
53.7
4.3
5.7
88.3
50.7
149.0
4.5
5.2
105.2
86.1
201.1
2.4
7.7
82.2
91.8
184.1
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
101.7
147.8
197.0
62.5
509.0
155.8
248.8
416.3
294.0
1,115.8
163.5
282.5
583.7
485.4
1,515.2
174.5
334.9
723.9
638.3
1,871.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Midwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.95
1. 12
1.57
1. 11
0.94
1.21
1.55
1.45
1.22
1.58
1.39
0.93
1.31
1.62
1.05
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.42
0.91
1.07
1.01
0.43
0.52
0.49
1.10
1.29
1.72
1.28
1.20
1.43
1.69
1.66
1.43
1.72
1.64
1.08
1.40
1.75
1.20
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.43
0.99
1.18
1. 12
0.40
0.53
0.49
1. 17
1.40
1.79
1.38
1.55
1.77
1.76
1.57
1.81
1.79
1. 14
1.56
1.86
1.26
0.42
0.59
0.47
1. 10
1.30
1.22
0.44
0.58
0.53
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.02
1.27
1.49
1.14
1.21
1.39
1.61
1.34
1.25
1.47
1.72
1.40
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.48
0.48
1.02
1.25
1.25
0.84
0.84
1. 10
1.22
1.25
1. 16
1.16
1.19
1.38
1.36
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.58
0.61
0.60
0.79
0.73
0.75
1.26
0.90
0.92
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.85
0.61
0.60
0.94
0.96
0.81
1.03
0.88
0.73
0.75
1.09
1.05
0.77
1.07
1.26
0.90
0.92
1. 15
1. 11
0.79
1.10
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrilion Btu's)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.201
0.008
0.209
0.160
0.142
0.302
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.260
1.034
0.056
1.350
0.257
1.515
0.067
1.840
0.273
2.276
0.060
2.609
South Atlantic
Iliyh Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.789
0.652
2.191
0.338
3.181
0.629
3.319
0.422
4.369
0.774
4.453
0.322
5.549
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low. Sulfur
Total
1.328
0.915
0.719
0.581
2.215
0.920
1.414
0.516
2.850
0.912
2.135
0.551
3.598
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Tota 1
4.239
2.062
3.950
0.975
6.987
2.007
6.256
1.005
9.268
2.119
9.006
0.933
12.058
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.346
1.705
0.905
3.956
1.342
1.884
1.071
4.297
1.329
2.005
1.476
4.810
West Nortli Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.416
0.731
0.545
1.692
0.390
0.756
0.731
1.877
0.373
0.807
1.103
2.282
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrilion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
MIDWEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
1.762
2.436
1.450
1.732
2.640
1.802
1.702
2.812
2.579
5.648
6.174
7.093
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
0.726
1.030
1.756
1.479
1.792
3.270
1.580
2.363
3.943
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
0.718
0.815
1.533
1.110
1.057
2.166
1.467
1.116
2.633
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.079
0.049
0.128
0.063
0.225
0.288
0.029
0.826
0.855
REST OF WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.685
0.797
0.864
1.661
1.173
1.282
2.455
1.496
2.021
3.517
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
3.824
7.909
4.319
16.052
3.739
11.546
5.880
21.165
3.821
14.893
7.866
26.580
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West South Central
H.iyh Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Ket] tonal Average
1.30
1.99
1.32
1.15
1.47
1.87
1.42
1. 16
1.63
1.85
1.56
1.11
1.53
1.70
1.43
1.13
1.46
1.78
1.41
1.06
1.00
1.16
1.07
0.08
1.39
0.85
1.44
2.13
2.21
1.47
1.36
1.63
2.00
1.61
1.38
1.76
2:01
1.73
1.27
1.65
1.80
1.57
1.28
1.40
1.89
1.45
1.22
1.02
1.18
1.12
1.09
1.48
1.30
1.50
1.79
1.64
1.42
1.75
2.10
1.72
1.46
1.84
2.07
1.80
1.33
1.71
1 .81
1.63
1.35
1.43
1.94
1.49
1.27
1.04
1.25
1.18
1.29
1.56
1.45
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.55
0.85
0.71
0.97
1.04
1.00
1.41
1.27
1.13
1.28
0.76
0.92
0.84
1.03
1.14
1.12
1.30
1.45
1.47
1.43
0.85
0.97
0.90
1.21
1.28
1.28
1.37
1.55
1.50
1.51
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985 USE OF WESTERS COM.
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LE. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTION;
O
Western Coal Consuned .in the East
Western Coa] Ccnsuned in the West
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Total
Meta1 lu^qical Bituninoos SuJbbifuminous Lignite rotai netaio.urgj.taj.
3.5 - - 3.5 -
-
0.3
"
32.5
18.9
51.4
55.2
4.7
0.3
16.6 - 49-1
5.6 - 24.5
4.2 - 4-2
26.4 - 77.8
0.4
26.4 - 81.6 5.1
... .. ..
13.-:
2
0
24
22
47
2
66
.5
.2
.4
.6
.0
.9
.0
;. . . .
64.2
-
-
9.7
35.7
121.1
8.9
165.6
_
239.5
77
7
0
17.6 27
16.0 76
47.7 191
8
63.7 276
3
31.3 391
.5
.2
.2
.3
. 1
.3
.9
.3
.3
.9
Total
81.
7.
0.
27.
125.
215.
13.
354.
3.
473.
1
2
5
3
2
8
0
1
3
5
CO
(D
O
ft
8
O
O
3
o
O
3
- s?
oo
Hi
ft
m
O
-------
199'. USE OF WESTERN COM
UKDEP ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
;.; -_B. 3r._-'nQT: PIXX? wiTKOtrr EXEMPT ::*
o
o
o
X
o
O
a
3
m
o
6
( 1D tors i
W»s-e-r Coal Cor.sumei i.-. the Eas-
Me-a" '^rc'^al EitiJii.ious SufcbiLuair.ous Lignite Tota i
ir.dus.r.-: - 5.5 - - 5-5
Hctallurgical 1.0 - - K0
Residential/
Co»ercLal - C-1 ' - 0.1
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing - 35.1 15.0 - 50.1
Nev - 23.2 54.4 - 77.6
Total - 56.3 7S.O - 133.3
Export -
?OM; 1.0 64.0 75.0 - 139.9
Western Coa 1 Consuned iri tr.e Wes-
13.2 1H.6 - 169.9 175.5
5.1 2.7 - - 7.7 8.7
0.1 - - 0.1 0.3
1.6 23.8 12.2 37.8 37.8
18.6 30.3 16.3 65.4 115.5
67.2 198.1 73.6 338.9 416.4
9.2 - 9.2 14.8
86.0 237.6 80.9 413.4 546.7
0.4 3.0 - - 3'4 3'-4
5.5 106.7 418.2 102.1 632.5 772.4
OT
CD
ID
rt
(D
y
(t>
"
ii
v£
^j
00
T3
K
(D
I-1
j-i'
9
H-
s
0
H
P>
Ml
rt
-------
1995 USE OF WESTEW COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Or
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTION'.
(10 tons)
Metallurgical
.1 _
HetallMTcical 0.1
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Hew
Conversions
Total 0.1
Expert
Totc.1 0.1
stern Coal Consumed i.n the East
Bituminous Subbituminous
5.4
1.3
0.1
29.3 11.1
23.8 126.8
53.1 144.2
59.9 144.2
Lignite Total Metallurgical
5.4
1.4 4.5
_
40.4
150.6
6.3
197.3
0.5
204.1 4.5
Bituminous
15.5
2.6
0.1
2.4
15.5
68.9
84.4
3.2
108.2
: ;
181.7
_
37.9
33.7
324.6
9.2
367.5
-
587.2
197.3
7.1
0.1
12.2 52.6
6.3 55.5
78.6 472.1
9.2
84.9 536.9
3.6
97.1 797.4
Total
202.7
8.4
0.1
52.6
96.0
622.7
15.4
3.7
1001.6
o
en t)
m H
ID ro
ft M
n> p-
z
o
o
a
-o
O
3
O
<£> 0>
-~> H)
03 ft
m
o
-------
o
n
o
o
2)
s
i
o
WESTERN COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTION
Supply Region
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
6
(10 tons)
Consuming Region
New Middle South East North
England Atlantic Atlantic Central
1985
_
- - - 31.6
18.1
- - - 49.7
1990
_
46.4
- - - 18.4
- - - 64.8
1995
_
- - - 71.8
- - - 14.6
East South
Central Total
0.7 0.7
31.2 62.8
18.1
31.9 81.6
2.6 2.6
72.5 118.9
18.4
75.1 139.9
3.0 3.0
114.6 1 86 . 4
14.6
86.4
117.6
204.0
en
(5
\D B>
^J Hi
oo rt
T
-------
B.17-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal**
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
37.2 98.5 (66.9)
183.6 307.4 (60.4)
197.9 (61.4)
81.2 (60.5)
28.4 (53.6)
167.3 (66.9)
437.0 (55.9)
197.9 (57.9)
83.1 (61.0)
156.0 (50.8)
229.2 (66.9)
578.3 (52.8)
197.9 (52.1)
83.1 (61.1)
297.2 (50.8)
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
192.1
147.3
2.7
42.1
227.0 (26.2)
145.6
4.8
76.6
179.3 (16.2)
112.7
4.8
61.8
160.6 (10
80.8
4.8
75.1
.7)
68.3
482.8
84.4 (44.9)
717.4 (48.4)
87.8 (44.0)
89.5 (43.5)
871.4 (48.4) 1,057.6 (48.5)
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
8
38
40
14
14
43
31
12
19
50
21
10
23
59
16
9
* Effective capacity.
** powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.18-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
(10 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1975-1985
1975-1990
1975-1995
146.3
62.7 (61.3)
72.9 (109.5)
54.1 (81.2)
18.8 (28.3)
10.7 (41.3)
0.9 (2.1)
9.8 (39.2)
5.2
105.0
8.4 (96.0)
2.5 (35.6)
3.3 (28.4)
2.6 (32.0)
0.3
265.2
302.8
132.6 (130.1)
159.3 (239.1)
55.3 (83.0)
103.9 (156.0)
10.9 (42.2)
0.9 (2.1)
10.1 (40.3)
6.5
176.1
23.1
2.6 (223.4)
17.9 (156.0)
2.6 (32.8)
0.3
508.8
466.1
196.1 (192.8)
256.5 (380.3)
55.3 (83.1)
201.2 (297.2)
12.6 (49.1)
0.9 (2.1)
11.8 (47.0)
265.4
40.5 (370.3)
2.6 (35.8)
34.7 (18.1)
2.9 (37.3)
0.3
778.5
1,022.8
666.2
664.3
665.7
428.6
250.7
259.1
70.2
116.2
81.2
1,019.2
87.5
665.5
666.0
666.2
428.6
250.6
257.7
75.1
114.7
79.3
103.4
1,021.3
665.0
677.0
674.5
428.6
251.1
256.6
72.6
116.7
77.7
108.6
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.19-5
1985
1990
1995
New England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANPPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Exist Lng
NSPS
ANSPS
GW
-
3.315
3.315
-
2.245
1.500
5.594
2.427
7.839
2.427
1.500
2.555
6.226
4.582
2.042
7.137
2.042
6.226
(%)
(79.9)
(79.9)
-
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.0)
(40.9)
(50.0)
(40.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(45.4)
(59.9)
(61.4)
(59.9)
(90.0)
GW
-
3.314
3.314
2.245
13.667
5.593
2.427
7.838
2.427
13.667
2.553
33.576
4.804
2.041
2.211
7.357
2.041
35.787
(%)
-
(79.9)
(79.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.0)
(41.0)
(50.0)
(41.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(44.8)
(59.9)
(60.2)
(60.5)
(59.9)
(88.2)
GW
4.063
3.315
3.315
4.063
2.551
-
5.331
2.427
7.882
2.427
39.433
2.555
66.076
7.125
3.021
0.249
9.680
3.021
66.325
(%)
(90.0)
(79.9)
(79.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(37.8)
(45.6)
(54.7)
(45.6)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(41.0)
(49.5)
(60.2)
(53.9)
(49.5)
(89.9)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
B.19-
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Exist Ing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800 (90.0)
4.016
2.086
(59.8)
(40.7)
4.016 (39.8)
3.086 (40.7)
4.800 (90.0)
4.800 (90.0)
12.526 (90.0)
17.507 (47.0)
7.555 (46.0)
22.307 (56.3)
7.555 (46.0)
12.526 (90.0)
22.199 (90.0)
35.636 (90.0)
4.583
2.794
0.173
4.583
2.794
22.372
4.798
74.240
18.294
7.262
2.384
23.092
7.262
76.624
(39.0)
(43.6)
(60.2)
(39.0)
(43.6)
(89.8)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(46.4)
(47.3)
(60.2)
(55.5)
(47.3)
(89.1)
6.075
2.940
4.162
6.075
2.940
39.798
5.106
150.314
21.846
8.388
4.411
26.952
8.388
154.725
(36.4)
(41.9)
(60.2)
(36.4)
(41.9)
( 86 . 9 )
(90.0)
(90.0)
(44.8)
(45.7)
(60.2)
(53.4)
(45.7)
(89.2)
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.837 (90.0)
4.459
8.136
(53.1)
(40.2)
4.459 (53.1)
8.136 (40.2)
0.837 (90.0)
8.215 (90.0)
4.456 (53.1)
7.516 (42.6)
2.063 (60.2)
4.456 (53.1)
7.516 (42.6)
10.278 (84.0)
15.173 (90.0)
5.041 (47.4)
7.316 (27.7)
11.659 (60.2)
5.041 (47.4)
7.316 (27.7)
26.832 (83.1)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B 19-5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing _ _ _
NSPS - ~ ~
ANSPS - - 0.615 (90.0) 1.564 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 0.558 (33.2) 0.586 (33.2) 0.582 (33.3)
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.339 (27.7) 5.375 (28.1)
ANSPS 1.562 (60.2) 7.437 (60.2) 15.501 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 0.558 (33.2) 0.586 (33.2) 0.582 (33.3)
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.339 (27.7) 5.375 (28.1)
ANSPS 1.562 (60.2) 8.052 (62.5) 17.065 (62.9)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing _ - -
NSPS - ~ ~
ANSPS 0.837 (90.0) 8.830 (90.0) 16.737 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 5.017 (50.9) 5.042 (50.8) 5.623 (48.1)
NSPS 13.137 (35.4) 12.885 (36.4) 12.691 (37.5)
ANSPS 1.562 (60.2) 9.500 (60.2) 27.160 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 5.017 (50.9) 5.042 (50.8) 5.623 (48.1)
NSPS 13.137 (35.4) 12.855 (36.4) 12.691 (37.5)
ANSPS 2.399 (70.6) 18.330 (74.6) 43.897 (71.6)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing _ - -
NSPS - ~ ~
ANSPS 4.443 (90.0) 19.934 (90.0) 21.124 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.095 (64.1) 5.364 (63.0)
ANSPS 3.411 (60.2) 24.255 (60.2) 38.610 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1) 1.108 (64.1)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.095 (61.4) 5.364 (63.0)
ANSPS 7.854 (77.1) 44.189 (73.6) 59.734 (70.7)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.19-5
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
Mountain
Capacity l-'ully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632
2.440
3.587
6.681
2.720
3.587
9.313
5.160
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.0)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(56.3)
(74.3)
2.829
10.382
3.579
6.490
7.382
3.579
9.319
17.764
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.5)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(54.1)
(77.6)
2.829
16.690
3.571
6.483
10.985
3.571
9.311
27.675
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.7)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(54.3)
(78.2)
0.331 (90.0)
0.331 (90.0)
2.632
2.771
3.587
6.681
2.720
3.578
9.313
5.491
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.0)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(56.3)
(75.2)
0.762 (90.0)
0.100
3.104
0.100
3.866
2.829
11.144
3.579
6.590
10.486
3.579
9.419
21.630
(27.7)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(66.1)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.0)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(53.8)
(76.6)
7.463 (90.0)
8.848 (60.2)
16.311 (73.8)
2.828
24.153
3.571
6.483
19.833
3.571
9.311
43.986
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.7)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(54.3)
(76.6)
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.5 LB. SO /MMBTU WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
NATIONAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.789 (90.0) 5.107 (90.0)
NSPS 2.632 (90.0) 2.829 (90.0) 2.828 (90.0)
ANSPS 20.657 (90.0) 109.350 (90.0) 207.223 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 27.251 (45.9) 28.023 (45.5) 32.148 (44.2)
NSPS 33.018 (43.6) 31.802 (43.7) 32.926 (44.0)
ANSPS 7.693 (60.2) 46.624 (60.2) 90.014 (60.2)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 32.051 (52.5) 32.812 (52.0) 37.255 (52.0)
NSPS 35.650 (47.0) 34.631 (47.5) 35.754 (47.5)
ANSPS 28.350 (81.9) 155.974 (81.1) 297.237 (81.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.0
124.1
Low
Sulfur
221.0
41.4
179.6
89.4
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
364.2
152.8
211.4
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.9
3.7
High
Sulfur
173.6
73.9
99.7
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
758.7
268.0
490.8
158.3
96.0
1.5
29.6
73.3
313.5
425.7
254.1
1117.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
51.0
129.8
Low
Sulfur
370.2
200.9
169.3
184.8
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
444.1
245.0
199.1
-
31.3
0.5
34.0
3.9
High
Sulfur
198.4
101.7
96.7
92.3
-
-
19.4
9.2
Total
1012.6
547.6
465.0
277.2
100.1
0.7
56.1
76.8
560.7
513.8
319.3
1523.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B. 1-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.7
64.1
135.8
Low
Sulfur
505.8
345.3
160.5
213.8
-
0. 1
-
2.9
Medium
Sulfur
499.5
315.7
183.8
1.4
32.5
0.3
51.7
4.1
High
Sulfur
268.5
176.6
91.9
106.2
-
-
36.3
9.6
Total
1273.9
837.6
436.3
321.5
104.2
0.4
88.0
80.7
722.6
589.5
420.6
1868.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
150.2
187.2
193.8
381.0
148.8
108.3
96.2
42.2
8.8
252.0
147.2
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9
371.7
2,207.6
1,523.7
69.6
22.2
364.0
1,979.6
1,468.7
72.4
132.6
297.6
1,971.3
1,403.5
83.0
277.9
49.4
1,813.9
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,632.2
746.1
3,378.3
3,157.8
191.9
80.7
698.0
3,111.5
184.2
348.8
303.0
2,905.3
275.5
642.6
169.9
4,128.3
3,947.5
3,993.4
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5 2,366.4 2,243.4 2,115.0
NSPS 232.5 207.1 224.4
ANSPS 84.5 266.9 419.6
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2 106.0 53.2 46.9
Total 3,394.7 2,789.4 2,770.5 2,805.9
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,868.0
1,262.8
9,130.8
7,235.1
494.0
187.4
1,361.8
9,278.3
6,967.4
463.7
748.3
762.1
8,941.3
6,520.0
582.9
1,382.3
275.0
8,760.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 5,045.2 4,736.2 4,391.2
NSPS 406.8 453.6 477.1
ANSPS 12.7 120.3 301.3
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 120.5 80.3 35.4
Total 6,885.2 5,585.2 5,390.4 5,205.0
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,868.2 1,669.2 1,566.4
NSPS 422.0 415.2 423.6
ANSPS 22.6 64.7 155.3
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 50.1 35.7 40.6
Total 1,532.9 2,363.0 2,184.7 2,185.9
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Total
9,263.3
144.8
8,408.1
6,913.4
828.8
35.3
170.6
6,405.4
868.8
185.0
116.0
5,957.6
900.7
456.6
76.0
7,948.2
7,575.1
7,390.9
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
203.7
209.0
150.6
700.7
86.9
734.5
412.7
1,672.6
150.6
700.7
353.5
247.1
1,451.8
62.4
700.6
525.2
280.6
1,568.8
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
332.9
25.2
374.1
169.6
59.3
24.4
356.6
169.7
184.6
17.0
317.2
169.6
290.0
11.4
358.1
627.3
727.9
798.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
^' I
si
B.2-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 47.6 81.5 38.3 37.8
NSPS 17.5 17.7 17.5
ANSPS 1.2 45.9 129.8
Oil/Gas Plants 148.1 154.2 96.2 47.1
Total 195.7 254.3 198.1 232.2
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 380.5 455.6 394.9 355.0
NSPS 187.1 187.4 187.1
ANSPS 60.5 230.5 419.8
Oil/Gas Plants 173.3 178.6 113.2 58.5
Total 553.8 881.6 926.0 1,030.4
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 16,915.4 14,754.7 13,918.2 12,904.9
NSPS 2,210.6 2,220.5 2,371.4
ANSPS 370.0 1,517.2 2,784.0
Oil/Gas Plants 1,789.9 2,445.3 1,238.5 690.1
Total 18,705.3 19,780.7 18,894.3 18,750.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
B.3-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
4.3
12.1
17.1
29.2
10.4
9.3
19.8
5.8
2.7
0.9
9.4
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
234.4
14.3
57.6
5.8
1.4
33.3
53.9
6.0
10.3
26.1
48.1
6.9
22.8
5.0
248.7
98.0
95.3
82.8
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
391.4
37.4
127.3
16.0
4.9
55.1
121.6
15.4
24.5
23.7
110.8
23.0
43.3
14.1
428.8
203.2
185.1
191.2
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
503.6
1.9
76.1
19.4
5.1
9.3
67.6
17.3
17.4
4.5
63.7
18.7
28.6
4.4
505.5
109.8
106.8
115.4
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1, 129.7
57.6
1,187.3
273.1
41.2
11.4
114.8
440.2
253.5
38.7
52.2
63.6
407.0
228.4
48.6
97.4
24.4
398.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.3-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,430.5 161.6 152.1 136.5
NSPS 33.9 37.8 39.8
ANSPS 0.8 7.7 19.3
Oil/Gas Plants 8.6 12.2 8.2 3.7
Total 1,439.1 208.4 205.8 199.3
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 135.9 44.9 42.7
NSPS 36.5 35.5
ANSPS 1.5 4.4
Oil/Gas Plants 3.8 4.5 3.5
Total 139.7 87.5 86.0
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,566.4
12.4
1,578.8
206.5
70.4
2.3
16.7
295.9
194.8
73.3
12.1
11.7
291.8
178.3
75.3
29.8
7.8
291.3
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
37.9
36.4
6.6
58.4
6.8
62.9
6.6
58.4
29.5
21.3
2.8
58.4
40.4
24.2
74.3
134.7
115.8
125.7
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing 132.9 35.6 32.9 29.7
NSPS 26.7 26.6 26.3
ANSPS 4.6 14.5 22.4
Oil/Gas Plants 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.5
Total 136.1 69.7 76.0 79.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975 1985 1990 1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing 0.5 4.0 1.5 1.5
NSPS 1.5 1.5 1.5
ANSPS 0.3 3.3 11.7
Oil/Gas Plants 21.8 15.7 10.0 5.6
Total 22.3 21.4 16.4 20.2
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing 133.4 39.6 39.5 32.5
NSPS 28.2 85.0 84.7
ANSPS 11.4 44.0 62.8
Oil/Gas Plants 25.0 65.7 23.3 25.7
Total 158.4 91.1 92.4 100.0
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 2,867.5 525.6 488.3 440.7
NSPS 198.1 198.4 210.0
ANSPS 25.3 111.6 201.7
Oil/Gas Plants 131.4 212.9 108.6 63.4
Total 2,998.9 961.9 906.9 915.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.6
237.1
78.2
80.1
158.3
43.8
54.0
7.0
104.8
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
131.2
278.3
409.5
431.6
40.6
27.5
277.4
396.8
42.2
205.7
233.5
360.8
48.4
455.1
49.0
777.2
878.3
913.3
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
831.8
425.2
1,267.0
954.6
111.9
97.1
350.3
912.0
107.4
489.9
151.0
831.0
160.7
865.3
93.8
1,513.9
1,660.4
1,950.8
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
570.7
135.6
101.4
39.3
493.8
120.8
308.4
18.8
447.2
130.9
509.8
18.9
847.0
941.8
1, 106.8
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing 1,702.3 2,047.4 1,880.8 1,682.8
NSPS 288.1 270.4 340.0
ANSPS 226.0 1,004.0 1,884.2
Oil/Gas Plants 801.0 813.6 483.4 168.7
Total 2,503.3 3,375.2 3,638.8 4,075.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
B.4-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3 1,204.8 1,131.5 1,006.5
NSPS 237.3 264.6 278.3
ANSPS 15.2 140.0 353.6
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3 122.1 81.3 35.6
Total 2,093.6 1,578.4 1,616.4 1,672.9
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7
Total 610.6
296.5
260.5
26.9
34.5
278.3
254.9
79.7
25.5
270.5
254.8
195.1
27.9
618.4
638.4
748.3
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,403.2
301.0
1,501.3
497.8
42.1
156.6
1,409.8
519.5
219.7
106.8
1,277.0
533.1
548.7
63.5
2,704.2
2,196.8
2,254.8
2,421.2
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 106.7
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 757.3
Total 864.0
66.3
423.7
150.4
549.0
66.3
423.7
607.2
186.4
24.5
423.7
789.2
211.4
1, 189.5
1,283.7
1,448.7
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
344.0
73.8
417.8
296.3
187.2
84.3
21.5
589.2
275.0
185.9
256.8
15.9
733.6
249.6
184.1
390.1
10.3
834.0
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
44.7
276.3
321.0
35.0
10.2
5.9
197.4
248.5
13.6
10.3
56.3
121.0
201.3
13.6
10.2
204.9
52.9
281.6
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
388.7
350.1
738.8
331.3
197.4
90.7
219.9
837.7
288.6
196.2
313.1
136.9
201.3
263.2
194.3
595.0
70.2
1,115.6
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
4,600.8
2,209.4
6,811.2
3,945.3
1,407.1
508.5
1,738.2
7,599.1
3,644.6
1,409.9
2,144.0
913.7
8,112.1
3,246.4
1,491.2
3,817.0
506.7
9,061.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
B.5-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
9.3
9.3
6.2
1.7
2.0
16.2
10.5
4.0
1.7
5.7
5.8
3.3
21.2
9.8
4.0
7.4
3.0
9.8
3.4
26.4
8
4
13
1.9
13.5
3.4
.8
.2
.4
19.2
31.0
37.3
45.2
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
52.3
18.4
18.7
10.6
56.6
8.0
26.3
9. 1
58.4
4.2
29.9
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.112
2.371
0.464
0.962
1.201
0.239
2.866
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
1.549
0.031
0.169
0.351
0.129
0.680
0.317
0.289
0.606
2.162
2.162
0.249
0.787
1.036
1.591
1.591
0.106
0.649
0.755
0.268
0.115
0.383
0.548
0.548
0.075
0.420
0.495
0.126
0.143
0.269
0.619
0.619
0.064
0.249
0.313
TOTAL
6.175
5.743
2.975
1.880
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.7-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change in Rates From Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost
Objective Function
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function
4.2
(51.5)
47.4
71.8
(0.1)
(-)
(0.1)
(0.3)
13.0
87.8
288.7
147.9
(0.3)
(0.7)
(0.9)
(1.1)
33.9
416.1
298.5
311.3
(0.6)
(1.5)
(1.2)
(1.5)
71.9
243.6 (0.2)
3,177.0
243.5
3,175.7
537.4
1,530.4 (1.1)
17,387.2
1,500.1
17,052.4
1,059.8
1.
68.
70.
60
60
(29
70
41
8
7
5
.3
.3
.4)
.5
.1
(0
(0
(0
(0
(0
(0
.2)
.5)
.4)
.4)
.2)
.5)
746
(598
147
662
662
98
84
183
.2
.8)
.4
.6
.6
.2
.9
.1
(1
(0
.2)
.5)
1,023
(688
.4
.5)
(1
(0
.2)
.9)
334.9
(3
(3
(1
(0
.6)
.6)
.6)
.6)
727
727
101
110
211
.0
.0
.3
.1
.4
(2
(2
(1
(0
.9)
.9)
.2)
.7)
2,333.2 (1.4)
24,588.0
2,636.5
27,242.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
RELATIVE TO CURRENT LEVELS
do3
Northeast
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
tons)
1985
_
43.9
98.1
110.2
252.3
54.8
(3.3)
51.5
177.0
177.0
63.9
(3.7)
60.2
541.0
1990
12.9
254.9
542.7
433.3
1,243.8
(36.6)
227.1
190.5
793.8
793.8
280.7
39.1
319.8
2,547.7
1995
55.9
479.5
1,023.0
720.7
2,279.2
147.6
374.2
521.8
1,050.1
1,050.1
477.1
176.6
653.7
4,504.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.9-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
AVERAGE COST PER TON OF S02 REMOVAL
(10 $/ton removal)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
0.67 Lb. Floor With Exemptions
0.28
1.37
0.34
0.68
0.45
0.43
0.77
0.83
0.57
0.60
0.46
0.64
0.69
0.32
0.52
0.8 Lb. Floor With Exemption
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
0.28
1.04
0.34
0.57
0.40
0.42
0.78
0.75
0.62
0.57
0.45
0.60
0.68
0.40
0.51
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.10-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
176.3
215.3
20.9
332.0
166.6
12.9
511.5
MIDWEST
138.6
293.7
372.8
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7
28.6
555.5
584.1
34.1
760.7
794.8
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
147.2
8.9
71.8
56.2
54.4
3.7
195.3
14.4
61.8
55.9
53.9
1.0
187.0
TOTAL
634.6
1121.7
1522.8
1868.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
10.6
73.9
85.2
0.3
21.5
89.9
143.5
0.4
28.9
118.9
183.6
0.6
158.2
176.3
255.4
332.0
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
128.3
12.6
54.9
19.6
125.4
4.2
31.1
18.4
129.2
-
17.9
19.5
211.1
215.3
179.2
166.6
Southern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.7
21.2
4.7
12.0
4.1
5.8
4.4
5.1
6.1
1.4
5.5
22.9
20.9
15.4
12.9
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
98.2
130.8
150.5
12.8
150.0
86.5
152.1
23.9
152.8
94.1
179.0
24.0
164.1
118.9
204.5
24.0
392.2
412.5
449.9
511.5
MIDWEST
Metallurgical - ~ ~
High Sulfur 131.6 163.1 220.3
Medium Sulfur 7.0 62.2 72.3
Low Sulfur - 1 »0 1»0
Total 138.6 226.2 293.7
Kasttjrn Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical ~
High Sulfur 0.3 0.3 0.3
Medium Sulfur 7.8 22.1 24.0
Low Sulfur 0.4 1.6 4.3
Total 8.5 24.0 28.6
293.6
78.0
1.1
372.8
24.5
9.6
34.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.ll-6
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
91.5
220.2
311.7
114.4
441.1
555.5
0.1
172.8
587.9
760.7
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.7
0.3
113.6
221.8
335.8
0.3
138.4
445.3
584.1
0.1
197.2
597.5
794.8
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.7
-
0.3
5.8
1.3
0.6
0.2
5.3
2.5
0.9
0.6
8.6
4.2
1.1
9.4
8.1
8.9
14.4
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71.8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.3
14.0
4.0
8.9
32.5
45.4
4.2
8.9
43.0
56.2
1.8
10.2
43.9
55.9
Southwest
Metalluryical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
tow Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.3
14.0
15.6
16.7
32.3
16.6
38.1
54.7
3.0
51.0
53.9
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
1.0
1.0
REST OF WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
30.4
11.6
53.7
4.3
5.8
87.2
49.8
147.2
4.4
5.3
103.5
82.0
195.3
2.4
8.6
80.2
96.0
187.0
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
101.7
147.8
197.0
62.5
509.0
154.2
255.7
415.2
296.6
1,121.7
157.2
320. 1
493.1
552.4
1,522.8
166.5
421.2
559.8
720.6
1,868.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Midwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous )
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Western Northern Great Plains
( Sub-bituminous )
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.99
1. 14
1.57
1.19
0.99
1.20
1.54
1.45
1.20
1.57
1.37
0.95
1.31
1.62
1.05
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.42
0.91
1.05
1.00
0.43
0.52
0.49
1990 1995
0.42
0.53
0.51
1.13 1.22
1.23 1.31
1.69 1.77
1.24 1.32
1.20
1.38 1.52
1.67 1.75
1.63 1. 74
1.39 1.55
1.69 1.78
1.62 1.78
1.12 1.22
1.40 1.47
1.72 1.B4
1.19 1.28
0.42
0.42 0.42
0.46 0.58
0.42 0.47
0.99 1.07
1.15 1.38
1.10 1.19
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.02
1.27
1.48
1. 13
1. 18
1.37
1.58
1.30
1.26
1.46
1.69
1.39
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.48
0.48
1.01
1.25
1.26
0.56
0.60
0.58
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.95
0.80
1.03
0.78
0.78
1.07
1.24
1.26
0.75
0.72
0.72
0.88
0.88
1. 12
1.04
0.73
1.05
1.18
1. 18
1.15
1.40
1.38
1.31
0.87
0.89
1.06
1.06
1.22
1. 11
0.80
1.11
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.13-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrilion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.258
0.038
0.297
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.414
1.399
0.052
1.864
0.481
2.085
0.052
2.618
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.789
0.979
1.987
0.224
3.189
1.429
2.635
0.308
4.372
2.453
2.734
0.372
5.559
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.328
1.015
0.675
0.557
2.247
1.007
0.606
1.243
2.856
1.215
1.138
1.204
3.557
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
4.239
2.285
3.637
1.115
7.036
3.050
4.648
1.603
9.300
4.407
5.995
1.628
12.031
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.031
2.017
0.912
3.960
1.235
1.904
1.173
4.312
1.544
1.841
1.429
4.813
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.398
0.713
0.618
1.730
0.363
0.721
0.773
1.856
0.360
0.714
1.175
2.249
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
D.J. J
-------
B.14-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.32
1.99
1.34
1.21
1.46
1.86
1.42
1.46
1.14
1.46
1.78
1.39
1.07
0.98
1.19
1.07
0.05
1.39
0.85
1.47
2.07
1.49
1.40
1.58
2.03
1.55
1.56
1.31
1.60
1.64
1.52
1.24
1.01
1.20
1.13
1.01
1.49
1.29
1.54
1.86
1.58
1.48
1.67
2.10
1.64
1.20
1.62
1.83
1.51
1.14
1.52
1.70
1.44
1.72
1.98
1.64
1.32
1.61
1.76
1.56
1.79
2.04
1.70
1.42
1.68
1.81
1.63
1.42
1.50
1.73
1.55
1.34
1.04
1.29
1.22
1.30
1.59
1.49
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.53
0.88
0.73
0.97
1.04
1.00
1.16
1.26
1.40
1.27
0.76
0.94
0.87
1.03
1.36
1.43
1.44
1.42
0.92
1.03
0.99
1.19
1.40
1.39
1.48
1.53
1.51
1.51
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
1985 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
6
(10 tons)
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
Western Coal Consumed in the East ^1
Metallurgical Bituninous Subbituminoufi Lignite Total Metallurgical
3.2 - - 3.2 -
- - 4.7
0.3 - - 0.3 -
.
33.3 15.7 - 49.0
16.7 5.7 - 22.4
4.2 - 4.2
50.0 25.6 - 75.6
0.4
Bituminous
11
2
-
21
26
47
2
.6
.6
.2
.3
.5
.9
Subbitumnous
66.4
-
9.7
37.6
122.2
9.4
169.3
-
Lignite Total
78,
7,
0
17.6 27
16.0 74
48.2 196
9
64.2 281
3
. 1
.2
.2
.3
.8
.7
.4
.0
.3
81 .
7
0
27
123
219
13
356
3
.3
.2
.5
.3
.9
.2
.6
.3
53.5
25.6
79.1
5.1
64.8
245.4
81.8
397.1
476.2
o
E
5
Z
O
O
a
-o
O
3
m
O
I
o>
-------
1990 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
o
"n
z
o
o
30
TJ
O
00
m
a
(10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite Total
c > 5 2
Industrial - 5.2 - **
Metallurgical 0.5 - - - 0.5
Residential/
CoMBercial - O'1 " - 0.
Synthetics -
Utilities
Existing - 35.8 13.9 - 49.8
New - 15.5 69.2 - 84.7
Conversions - ~" o 2 :
Total - 51.3 B9.3 - 140.7
Export -
Total O.S 56.7 89.3 - '46.5
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituainous Lignite Total Total
13.6 156.8 - 170.3 175.5
5.1 2.7 - - 7.7 8.2
o.i - - o-1 °-3
2.2 23.8 12.2 38.2 38.2
18.0 32.1 16.3 66.9 116.2
66.0 199.1 71.8 336.9 421.6
9.4 - 9.4 la.b
84.0 240.7 88.1 412.8 553.5
0 4 i.n - - 3.5 3.5
5.5 105.6 421.2 100.4 632.7 779.1
M "0
o n
O (I
rt i-
O h-
s a
*E
n
o
H
00 f*
CD
1
Ul
1
a*
-------
1995 USE OP WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXE.-PTIONS
(10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Western Coal Consumed lr. the West
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite Total
O
z
o
o
30
O
30
Industrial
Metail-orgicaL
Residential/
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Hew
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
5.9
C.1
30.8
14.8
45.6
51.6
9.4
120.0
9.3
138.8
138.8
5.9
0.1
40.2
134.8
9.3
184.4
190.4
Metallurgical Bituminous Subbituoinous Lignite Total
17.7 181.7 - 199.5
4.4 2.7 - - 7.1
0.1 - - 0.1
4.5 37.9 12.2 54.7
16.1 34.4 5.3 55.9
75.1 309.8 78.2 463.1
9.4 - 9.4
91.2 353.7 83.6 528.4
0.5 3.2 - - 3.6
4.8 1)9.3 573.3 95.8 793.3
Total
205.4
7.1
0. 1
54.7
96.1
597.9
18.8
712.8
3.6
983.6
Preliminai
September,
<
o
n
vO »
J I-H
CD rt
W
m
O
-------
WESTERN COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
(106 tons)
Supply Region
Consuming Region
New
England
Middle
Atlantic
South
Atlantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
Total
1985
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
30.83
18.79
49.62
1.04
1.04
28.49 59.32
18.79
29.53
79.15
1990
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
1.43
1.43
52.45
18.03
70.48
74.57 127.02
18.03
76.00 146.48
1995
o
-n
z
3
o
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
71 .61
12.02
83.63
1.15
1.15
105.59 177.20
12.02
106.74 190.37
en ha
r* t-1
(1) H-
&&
(D 3
M
O
00 rt
-------
B.17-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Fix 1st i in)
NSPS
ANSI'S
37.2 98.5 (66.9)
183.6 311.1 (60.9)
197.9 (61.1)
81.2 (57.8)
32.0 (61.1)
167.3 (66.9)
439.5
197.
83,
(55.8)
9 (56.8)
1 (56.4)
158.5 (54.2)
230.0 (66.9)
580.1 (52.6)
197.9 (51.0)
83.1 (60.1)
299.1 (51.6)
Oi L/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
192. 1
147.3
2.7
42.1
223.3 (26.0)
145.0
4.8
73.5
176.6 (16.0)
111.6
4.8
60.3
158.0 (10
78.3
4.7
75.0
.4)
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
68.3
482.8
84.4 (44.9)
717.3
87.8 (44.0)
871.2
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.6
Nuclear
Coal
Oi I/Gas
otlior
8
38
40
14
14
43
31
12
19
50
20
10
22
55
15
8
* Elfectivo capacity.
** Powerplants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.18-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 S's)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1985
1990
1995
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
148.1
62.7 (61.3)
75.3 (113.2)
54.0 (81.2)
21.3 (32.0)
10.1 (39.0)
0.9 (2.1)
9.2 (36.9)
5.4
105.0
8.1 (97.6)
2.3 (35.6)
3.3 (32.0)
2.4 (30.0)
0.3
266.9
1,022.8
665.0
665.6
665.2
428.6
249.3
259.0
64.6
103.1
80.0
83.0
304.4
132.6 ( 130.1)
168.3 (241.6)
55.2 (83.1)
106.1 (158.5)
10.5 (40.6)
0.9 (2.1)
9.6 (38.5)
6.6
176.1
19.3 (225.3)
2.4 (37.7)
14.5 (158.5)
2.4 (29.1)
0.4
506.8
1,019.2
664.3
669.4
667.6
428.6
249.4
258.6
63.7
91.5
82.5
85.7
466.7
196.9 (192.8)
257.3 (382.2)
55.2 (83.1)
202.1 (299.1)
12.5 (48.7)
0.9 (2.1)
11.7 (46.6)
6.7
265.4
34.4 (370.5)
2.5 (40.2)
29.4 (299.1)
2.5 (31.2)
0.4
773.6
1,021.3
664.3
675.5
673.2
428.6
251.0
256.7
62.2
98.3
80.1
92.8
(MW) - Megawatts
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
1990
1995
New England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Tot.il Capacity Scrubbed
Kx i at. i n<]
NSI'S
ANSI'S
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
South_ At.l_fl_nt_ic
Ca|vicity Ku.l ly Scrubbed
Ex 1st i ny
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Exist ing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Exist Ing
NSPS
ANSPS;
GW
-
3.315
3.315
-
2.245
1.653
5.449
2.427
7.694
2.427
1.653
2.555
6.053
6.744
2.042
0.172
9.299
2.042
6.225
(%)
-
(79.9)
(79.9)
-
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.1)
(41.0)
(50.4)
(41.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(47.4)
(59.9)
(44.7)
(59.1)
(59.9)
(88.7)
GW
-
3.315
3.315
2.245
14.265
5.445
2.427
7.690
2.427
14.265
2.555
33.917
7.335
2.127
2.029
9.890
2. 127
35.946
(%)
-
(79.8)
(79.8)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(34.1)
(40.5)
(50.4)
(40.5)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(46.7)
(52.5)
(44.7)
(57.9)
(52.5)
(87.4)
GW
5.240
3.315
3.315
5.240
2.245
29.579
5.437
2.427
7.682
2.427
39.579
2.555
65.759
7.329
3.090
1. 100
9.884
3.090
66.859
(%)
(90.0)
(79.8)
(79.8)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(38.0)
(40.5)
(53.2)
(40.5)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(46.7)
(47.0)
(65.1)
(57.9)
(47.0)
(89.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing _ _ - - -
NSPS ~ ~
ANSPS 5.925 (90.0) 8.135 (90.0) 20.325 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 0.098 (50.3) 0.097 (50.3) 0.803 (30.4)
NSPS 3.086 (40.7) 3.081 (40.7) 4.427 (36.5)
ANSPS - - 15.289 (44.9) 19.524 (44.8)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 0.098 (50.3) 0.097 (50..3) 0.803 (30.4)
NSPS 3.080 (40.7) 3.081 (40.7) 4.427 (36.5)
ANSPS 5.925 (90.0) 23.424 (60.6) 39.849 (67.9)
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing _ _ - - -
NSPS - ~
ANSPS 1.406 (90.0) 5.468 (90.0) 13.668 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.278 (36.5) 2.809 (49.5) 4.268 (36.5)
NSPS 8.037 (27.7) 9.570 (27.7) 10.238 (27.7)
ANSPS 0.004 (44.7) 5.375 (44.7) 13.643 (44.7)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.278 (36.5) 2.809 (49.5) 4.268 (36.5)
NSPS 8.037 (27.7) 9.570 (27.7) 10.238 (27.7)
ANSPS 1.410 (89.9) 10.843 (67.5) 27.311 (67.4)
4.800
13.631
15.606
7.555
0.172
20.406
7.555
13.803
(90.0)
(90.0)
(49.7)
(45.0)
(44.7)
(59.2)
(45.0)
(89.4)
4.800
56.317
16.192
7.455
17.318
20.992
7.455
73.635
(90.0)
(90.0)
(49.3)
(45.0)
(44.9)
(58.6)
(45.0)
(79.4)
4.800
130.903
16.884
9.944
20.624
21 .684
9.944
151 .527
(90.0)
(90.0)
(49.6)
(40.7)
(45.9)
(58.5)
(40.7)
(84.0)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.19-6
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
GW
1990
GW
1995
GW
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.558 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
3.017 (44.7)
0.558 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
3.017 (44.7)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.898 (45.2)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.898 (45.2)
0.581
5.001
16.611
(33.2)
(27.0)
(44.8)
0.581 (33.2)
5.001 (27.0)
16.611 (44.8)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Ex 1st iny
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Exist ing
NSPS
ANSPS
1.406 (90.0)
4.866 (36.1)
13.038 (27.7)
3.021 (44.7)
4.866 (36.1)
13.038 (27.7)
4.427 (59.1)
4.144 (90.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
3.710 (44.7)
1.110 (64.1)
5.645 (60.6)
7.854 (68.6)
5.468 (90.0)
3.394
14.571
13,273
3.394
14.571
18.741
(46.7)
(27.7)
(45.0)
(46.7)
(27.7)
(58.1)
15.416 (90.0)
1.109
5.645
29.013
1.109
5.645
44.429
(64.1)
(60.6)
(45.9)
(64.1)
(60.6)
(61.2)
13.668 (90.0)
4.849
15.239
30.254
4.849
15.239
43.922
(36.1)
(27.7)
(44.8)
(36.1)
(27.7)
(58.9)
15.301 (90.0)
1.108
5.644
44.434
(64.1)
(60.6)
(45.1)
1.108 (64.1)
5.644 (60.6)
59.447 (56.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.19-6
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF
REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW:
1985
1990
1995
GW
GW
GW
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632
1.030
3.587
6.681
4.587
3.587
9.313
5.617
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.9)
(54.2)
(27.7)
(56.2)
(60.8)
2.829
3.853
3.587
6.487
14.065
3.587
9.316
17.918
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.4)
(47.8)
(27.7)
(56.9)
(56.9)
2.934
5.756
3.579
6.421
21.901
3.579
9.355
27.657
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.2)
(46.4)
(27.7)
(57.2)
(55.5)
0.331
2.632
1.361
3.587
6.681
4.587
3.578
9.313
5.948
(90.0)
0.331 (90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.9)
(54.2)
(27.7)
(56.2)
(62.4)
0.379 (90.0)
0.500
3.419
0.500
3.798
2.829
4.232
3.587
6.987
17.484
3.587
9.816
21.716
(27.7)
(47.1)
(27.7)
(51.4)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(41.3)
(47.7)
(27.7)
(55.3)
(55.9)
7.463 (90.0)
8.780 (44.7)
16.243 (65.5)
2.934
13.219
3.579
6.421
30.681
3.587
9.355
43.900
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.2)
(45.9)
(27.7)
(57.2)
(59.2)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
IJCUUHUEK CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.67 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
4.800
2.632
20.542
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
4.800
2.829
81.434
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
4.800
2.934
173.091
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
NATIONAL
Capaci.ty Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
7\NSPS
25.169
32.919
11 .490
(44.6)
(40.6)
(48.5)
24.282
34.838
77.088
(46.4)
(39.3)
(45.9)
26.420
37.248
125.992
(44.8)
(38.6)
(45.4)
29.969
35.551
32.032
(51.9)
(44.3)
(75.1)
29.082
37.667
158.522
(53.6)
(43.1)
(68.6)
31.220
40.182
299.083
(51.7)
(42.4)
(71.2)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1985
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
66.0
58.0
124.1
Low
Sulfur
216.7
36.6
180.2
89.0
-
0.4
-
2.7
Medium
Sulfur
368.5
156.8
211.7
0.1
30.0
1.0
26.9
3.7
High
Sulfur
173.0
73.2
99.7
68.8
-
-
2.7
8.9
Total
758.2
266.6
491.6
157.9
96.0
1.5
29.6
73.3
308.8
430.1
253.5
1116.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.9
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
366.4
194.4
172.0
184.8
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
451.9
252.8
199.0
-
31.3
0.5
33.2
3.8
High
Sulfur
194.5
97.8
96.7
92.4
-
-
20.1
9.2
Total
1012.8
545.1
467.7
277.2
100.1
0.7
56.0
76.8
556.8
520.8
316.3
1523.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1995
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.1-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
71.8
64.1
135.9
Low
Sulfur
509.7
350.4
159.3
213.7
-
0.1
-
2.9
Medium
Sulfur
502.9
321.4
181.5
1.7
32.5
0.3
51.1
4.0
High
Sulfur
259.3
165.7
93.5
106.0
-
-
36.9
9.7
Total
1272.0
837.6
434.3
321.3
104.2
0.4
88.0
80.7
726.4
592.4
411.8
1866.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL S0.; EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD Of
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
48.4
101.8
187.2
193.8
143.8
108.3
150.2
381.0
252.0
96.1
42.4
8.8
147.3
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,835.9
371.7
2,207.6
1,523.7
69.6
22.2
364.0
1,979.5
1,468.7
72.4
126.2
297.6
1,964.8
1,403.5
72.3
278.7
49.4
1,803.9
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,632.2
746.1
3,378.3
3, 157.9
191.9
81. 1
697.9
3,111.7
191.5
357.1
303.0
2,906.2
198.9
683.7
170.5
4, 128.8
3,963.3
3,959.2
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 3,351.5
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 43.2
Total 3,394.7
2,366.4
232.5
84.5
106.0
2,243.3
204.5
305.2
53.2
2,153.4
203.1
472.3
46.9
2,789.3
2,806.2
2,875.7
EAST
Coal Plants
Fxi.st i ng
NSPS
ANSPS
Oi l/i;ns Pl.inta
Tul .il
7,868.0
_. 8
9, 130.H
7,235.2
494.0
187.8
1,361.7
9,278.6
6,967.5
468.4
788.5
156.1
8,986.3
6,559.2
474.3
1,477.1
275.6
8,786.1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 6,771.8 5,044.0 4,732.8 4,390.4
NSPS 406.7 453.5 471.2
ANSPS 12.6 135.6 333.7
Oil/Gas Plants 103.4 120.9 80.2 35.4
Total 6,885.2 5,584.2 5,402.1 5,230.6
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,491.5 1,868.2 1,672.0 1,567.2
NSPS 422.1 414.7 423.6
ANSPS 27.3 78.2 187.7
Oil/Gas Plants 41.4 50.1 35.7 40.6
Total 1,532.9 2,367.8 2,200.6 2,219.1
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Total
9,263.3
144.8
8,408. 1
6,912.2
828.8
39.9
171.0
6,404.8
868.2
213.8
115.9
5,957.6
894.8
521.4
76.0
7,952.0
7,602.7
7,449.7
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
203.7
209.0
150.6
700.7
96.5
734.5
412.7
1,682.2
150.6
700.7
460.8
247.1
1,559.2
62.4
700.7
659.4
280.6
1,703.1
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
332.9
25.2
374. 1
164.0
75.3
24.4
339.2
169.3
237.3
9.2
326.7
169.3
342.1
11.4
358.1
637.8
755.0
849.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.2-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LD. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
47.6
148.1
81.5
17.5
1.2
149.6
38.3
17.7
55.5
93.3
37.8
17.5
153.7
47.1
195.7
249.9
204.7
256.1
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Tot
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.3-7
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
3
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.3
4.0
4.3
12.1
17.1
29.2
10.4
9.3
19.8
5.8
2.7
0.9
9.4
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
234.4
14.3
57.6
5.8
1.4
33.3
52.9
6.0
9.9
26.1
48. 1
6.0
22.6
5.0
248.7
98.0
94.9
81.8
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
391.4
37.4
127.3
16.0
4.8
55.1
121.6
16.0
24.7
23.7
110.9
16.6
45.6
14.2
428.8
203.2
186.0
187.2
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 503.6 76.1 67.6 63.9
NSPS 19.4 17.0 16.9
ANSPS 5.1 17.4 29.1
Oil/Gas Plants 1 .9 9.3 4.5 4.4
Total 505.5 109.8 106.6 114.2
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,129.7
57.6
1,187.3
273.1
41.2
11.3
114.8
440.2
252.5
39.0
52.0
63.6
407.3
228.7
39.5
100.0
24.5
392.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.3-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,430.5 161.6 152.0 136.5
NSPS 33.9 37.8 39.3
ANSPS 0.8 7.7 19.4
Oil/Gas Plants 8.6 12.2 8.2 3.7
Total 1,439.1 208.4 205.7 198.9
West North Central
Co.il Plants
Kxist.i.n
-------
B.3-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
0.5
21.8
4.0
1.5
0.3
15.2
1.5
1.5
3.3
9.7
1.5
1.5
11.6
5.6
22.3
20.9
16.1
20.2
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
133.4
25.0
158.4
39.6
27.7
5.3
18.0
90.5
33.0
28.0
18.6
10.9
90.6
31.2
27.8
34.0
7.1
100.0
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,867.5
131 .4
2,998.9
525.6
197.6
25.6
212.5
961.3
486.8
198.7
112.0
107.5
905.1
440.9
200.4
204.1
63.4
908.8
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
26.9
64.1
91.0
90.5
146.6
237.1
78.2
80.1
158.3
43.8
54.0
7.0
104.8
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
131.2
278.3
409.5
431.6
40.6
27.5
277.4
111 .2
397.8
42.2
197.9
233.6
870.5
360.8
42.2
452.8
49.0
904.7
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Ex is tint)
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
831.8
425.2
1,267.0
954.7
111.9
96.9
350.3
912.1
111.7
493.9
151.0
831.4
116.0
911.5
94.1
1,513.7
1,668.7
1,952.9
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 712.4
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 33.4
Total 745.8
570.7
135.6
101.4
39.3
493.8
119.3
308.3
18.8
461.9
118.5
513.3
18.9
846.9
940.2
1,112.6
EAST
Coal Plantn
Ex 1st. i n<)
ANSI'S
)i l/c;,is I1 1 .int
Total
1,702.3
_ 801 .0
2,503.3
2,047.5
288.1
225.8
_8_i3.e>
3,374.9
1,881.9
273.2
1,000. 1
483.5
3,637.7
1,697.8
276.7
1,931.6
169.0
4,075.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,908.3
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 185.3
Total 2,093.6
1,203.7
237.2
15.2
122.6
1,578.6
1,129.6
264.6
136.8
81.1
1 ,612.0
1,005.0
274.9
352.6
35.6
1,668.1
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 494.9 296.5 279.7 270.5
NSPS 260.6 254.6 254.8
ANSPS 27.0 79.7 194.7
Oil/Gas Plants 115.7 34.5 25.5 27.9
Total 610.6 618.5 638.5 747.9
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
2,403.2
301.0
1,500.2
497.8
42.2
157.1
1,409.3
519.2
216.5
106.6
1,275.5
529.7
547.3
63.5
2,704.2
2,197.1
2,250.5
2,416.0
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing 106.7 66.3 66.3 24.5
NSPS 423.7 423.8 423.7
ANSPS 150.2 604.3 786.3
Oil/Gas Plants 757.3 549.0 186.4 211.4
Total 864.0 1,189.3 1,280.8 1,445.9
Mounta in
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
344.0
73.8
417.8
296.3
183.7
94.8
21.6
264. 1
185.4
277. 1
8.5
249.6
183.7
394.3
10.3
596.4
735.1
837.8
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.4-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
ANNUAL NO EMISSIONS
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(103 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
44.7
276.3
321.0
35.0
10.2
5.9
191 .4
242.5
13.6
10.3
56. 1
117.1
197.1
13.6
10.2
203.9
52.9
280.6
UKST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Ex is tiny
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
388.7
350.1
738.8
331.3
193.9
100.7
213.0
838.9
277.7
195.7
333.2
194.9
932.2
263.2
193.9
598.2
63.2
1,118.4
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing 4,600.8
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants 2,209.4
Total 6,811.2
3,945.2
1,403.6
518.7
1,732.7
7,600.2
3,633.3
1,411.7
2 , 1 54 . 0
902.1
8,101.2
3,260.9
1,424.1
3,863.2
507.0
9,055.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.5-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Coal
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
Total
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
9.3
9.3
6.2
1.7
2.0
19.2
48.4
32.3
8.9
10.4
16.2
10.5
4.0
1.7
5.7
5.8
3.3
31.0
52.3
18.4
18.7
10.6
21.2
9.7
4.0
7.5
2.9
9.8
3.4
37.3
56.6
7.8
26.3
9.1
26.4
8.8
4.0
13.6
1.9
13.5
3.4
45.2
58.4
4.2
29.9
7.5
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.6-7
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrillion Btu's)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Now Encjlarui
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
0.425
0.824
1.010
0.1 12
0.464
0.962
1.201
0.239
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
0.031
0.169
0.351
0.129
2.371
2.866
1.549
0.680
East North Central 0.317 0.394 0.266 0.126
West North Central 0.289 0.137 0.115 0.143
MIDWEST 0.606 0.531 0.381 0.269
West South Central 2.162 1.591 0.548 0.619
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 2.162 1.591 0.548 0.619
Mountain 0.249 0.106 0.054 0.064
Pacific 0.787 0.632 0.409 0.249
WEST 1.036 0.738 0.463 0.313
TOTAL 6.175 5.727 2.941 1.881
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.7-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANNUALIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Percentage Change In Rates From Current Standard)
(1978 $'s)
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
1985
3.9 (0.1)
(52.9) (-)
48.8 (-)
72.9 (0.3)
72.7
(16.7) (0.1)
66.7 (0.5)
50.0
1990
12.9 (0.2)
(27.8) (0.6)
397.2 (1.0)
129.9 (1.0)
512.2
733.9 (1.1)
(606.3) (0.6)
127.6
1995
33.8
301.9
400.0
267.1
1,002.8
(0.6)
(1.4)
(1.2)
(1.3)
996.3 (1.1)
(718.2) (0.6)
278.1
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZED COST
57.5 (0.4)
57.5 (0.4)
31.5 (0.6)
(0.4) (-)
31.1
211 .1 (0.2)
512.3 (2.8)
512.3
146.1 (1.8)
32.2 (0.3)
178.3
1,330.4 (1.0)
626.6
626.5
142.7
89.6
232.3
(2.5)
(2.5)
(1.5)
(0.6)
2,139.8 (1.3)
Present Value of Change
in Annualized Cost 2,753.2
Objective Function 220.0
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function 2,869.2
15,113.7
1,295.8
14,749.2
22,372.5
2,382.7
24,494.4
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.8-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE
STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS./MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
RT.LATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARDS
(10 tons)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
West North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mounta i n
Pa<;i t i.c
WKST
TOTAL
__
44.0
97.6
110.3
251.9
55.8
(8.1)
47.7
167.4
167.4
53.4
0.7
54.1
521.3
12.9
261.4
526.9
397.6
1, 198.8
(48.3)
211.2
162.9
686.4
686.4
253.6
32.5
286. 1
2,334.1
55.8
489.5
1,057.2
650.9
2,253.4
122.0
341.0
463.0
915.8
915.8
425.8
152.7
578.5
4,210.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
B.10-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
APPALACHIA
MIDWEST
158.2
211.1
22.9
392.1
138.6
176.2
215.8
20.9
412.9
225.8
254.5
179.2
15.4
449.0
290.4
332.2
170.4
13.2
515.8
363.7
Eastern Northern Great Plains 8.5 24.1
Western Northern Great Plains 45.2 306.1
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 53.7 330.1
28.6
554.3
582.9
34.0
760.7
794.8
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OF WEST
9.5
10.0
14.0
15.7
4.5
50.0
8.1
57.7
45.4
37.1
3.7
152.0
15.0
61.8
56.7
55.7
1.0
190.2
TOTAL
634.6
1120.8
1522.9
1866.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LD. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
13.5
107.1
37.4
0.2
17.0
73.2
85.2
0.3
21 .9
89.6
142.5
0.4
29.1
118.9
183.6
0.6
158.2
176.2
254.5
332.2
Central Appalachia
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
low Sulfur
Total
Southern Appalachia
Met.al.lury ica I
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
low Sulfur
Total
APPALACHIA
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
83.0
23.6
91.9
12.6
129.4
12.6
54.3
19.6
125.4
4.2
31.1
18.4
132.6
-
19.7
18.1
211.1
215.8
179.2
170.4
1.7
21.2
_
22.9
98.2
130.8
150.5
12.8
4.7
12.0
4.1
20.9
151.1
86.4
151.6
23.9
5.8
4.4
5.1
15.4
153.2
93.8
178.0
24.0
6.1
1.4
5.5
13.2
167.8
118.9
204.9
24.2
392.2
412.9
449.0
515.8
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Tota I
131.6
7.0
138.6
162.7
62.2
1.0
225.8
217.1
72.3
1.0
290.4
284.4
78.2
1.1
363.7
Knstorn Nort.hfm <".n.Mt Plains
Mih Su 1 I'm
Mcd i inn Su 1 fur
l,ow SuVI'ur
To tn 1
0.3
7.8
0.4
8.5
0.3
22.1
1.6
24.1
0.3
24.0
4.3
28.6
-
24.5
9.5
34.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.ll-
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Western Northern Great Plains
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
7.6
37.6
45.2
90.0
216.1
306.1
114.8
439.4
554.3
172.8
587.9
760.7
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
15.4
38.0
53.7
0.3
112. 1
217.7
330. 1
0.3
138.8
443.7
582.9
197.3
597.4
794.8
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.3
8.4
0.7
-
0.3
5.8
1.3
0.6
0.2
5.6
2.5
0.9
0.6
8.8
4.5
1.1
9.4
8. 1
9.2
15.0
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
10.0
10.0
57.7
57.7
71.8
71.8
61.8
61.8
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.3
14.0
4.0
8.9
32.5
4.2
8.9
41.4
1.8
11. 1
43.8
45.4
54.6
56.7
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.9
0.8
10.3
14.0
16.0
21.0
37. 1
16.9
44.6
61.4
61.8
52.8
55.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.ll-7
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
1975
1985
1990
1995
Northwest
Mrtrt 1 lurgica.l
Hiqh Sulfur
Mudium Sulfur
U>w Sulfur
Total
15.2
0.5
15.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
1.0
1.0
KEST OK WEST
Metalluryical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.3
8.4
30.4
11.6
53.7
4.3
5.8
87.6
54.1
152.0
4.4
5.6
103.8
86.9
200.7
2.4
8.8
81.4
97.7
190.2
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
101.7
147.8
197.0
62.5
509.0
155.3
255.2
413.5
296.8
1, 120.8
157.6
316.9
492.8
555.6
1,522.9
170.2
412. 1
561.7
722.2
1,866.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.12-7
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Central Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southern Appalachia
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.97
1. 12
1.57
1. 11
0.96
1.20
1.54
1.45
1.20
1.57
1.37
1.13
1.23
1.69
1.24
1.38
1.69
1.62
1.22
1.31
1.78
1.33
1.53
1.76
1.75
1.54
1.79
1.78
Midwest
High Sulfur 0.94 1.11
Medium Sulfur 1.31 1.40
Low Sulfur 1.62 1.72
Regional Average 1.05 1.19
Eastern Northern Great Plains
High Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Medium Sulfur 0.42 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.46 0.46
Regional Average 0.42 0.42
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.91 1.00
Low Sulfur 1.06 1.15
Regional Average 1.00 1.10
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub-bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.43 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.51 0.53
Regional Average 0.49 0.51
1.21
1.48
1.85
1.27
0.42
0.58
0.47
1.07
1.29
1.20
0.42
0.62
0.58
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.12-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SUPPLY PRICES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO_/MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
($/106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985 1990
1995
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.02
1.28
1.48
1. 13
1. 18
1.37
1.58
1.29
1.26
1.46
1.70
1.39
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Kocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.48
0.48
1.00
1.25
1.26
0.58
0.60
0.59
0.85
0.85
0.95
0.95
0.80
1.03
0.71
0.71
1.08
1.22
1.25
0.83
0.78
0.79
0.88
0.88
1. 12
1.04
0.73
1.05
1. 17
1.17
1.20
1.40
1.38
1.35
0.97
0.99
1.05
1.77
1.07
1.21
1. 11
0.80
1. 11
NOTK: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
Th.is Is lino to t.ho averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
Inryor roqions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and
where1 tho relative volumes of these coals change between
si7iMi.ir.ios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
age decreases because more lower priced coal and less
higher priced coal is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrilion Btu's)
B.13-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
New England
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.047
0.235
0.006
0.241
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.258
0.038
0.297
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
1.076
0.480
2.060
0.052
2.592
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total 1-789
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total L328
0.960
1.990
0.239
1.443
2.618
0.337
2.408
2.704
0.475
3.188
4.398
5.587
1.015
0.675
0.557
2.247
1.000
0.606
1.247
2.853
1.131
1.075
1.348
3.554
EAST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
4.239
2.543
3.641
0.852
7.035
4.277
5.877
1.875
12.030
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
2.670
1.166
1.888
1.257
4.311
1.459
1.851
1.501
4.811
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.783
0.398
0.714
0.618
1.730
0.364
0.723
0.769
1.856
0.360
0.726
1.161
2.247
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(Quadrilion Btu's)
B.13-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1975
1985
1990
1995
M.IIJWKST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
3.753
1.433
2.710
1.546
5.689
1.530
2.611
2.026
6.167
1.819
2.577
2.662
7.058
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.119
0.709
1.044
1.753
1.404
1.850
3.254
1.181
2.719
3.900
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.615
0.770
0.797
1.567
0.982
1.198
2.180
1.210
1.401
2.611
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.069
0.079
0.049
0. 128
0.063
0.218
0.281
0.031
0.802
0.834
KEST OK WEST
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
0.685
0.849
0.846
1.695
1.045
1.416
2.461
1.241
2.203
3.445
NATIONAL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Total
8.719
3.977
7.909
4.287
16.173
4.561
19.691
6.928
21.179
6.097
10.875
9.460
26.431
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
1.32
1.99
1.33
1.21
1.46
1.86
1.42
1.20
1.62
1.84
1.51
1.13
1.52
1.70
1.46
1. 14
1.47
1.78
1.40
1.07
0.98
1.19
1.08
0.05
1.39
0.85
1.46
2.07
1.49
1.41
1.58
2.05
1.55
1.44
1.72
1.98
1.64
1.31
1.61
1.75
1.57
1.31
1.61
1.64
1.52
1.23
1.01
1.21
1.14
1.01
1.47
1.27
1.54
1.87
1.58
1.48
1.67
2.11
1.65
1.54
1.80
2.04
1.71
1.41
1.68
1.81
1.64
1.41
1.52
1.73
1.56
1.03
1.05
1.28
1.21
1.35
1.58
1.51
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
B.14-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
DELIVERED COAL PRICES TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(106 tons)
(1978 $'s)
1985
1990
1995
Mountain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
Regional Average
0.58
0.88
0.73
0.97
1.04
1.00
1.16
1.26
1.41
1.27
0.83
0.94
0.89
1.03
1.14
1.12
1.36
1.42
1.45
1.42
0.98
1.02
1.00
1.18
1.40
1.39
1.47
1.53
1.53
1.52
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent.
This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted) asso-
ciated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine
larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand region
is averaged witli less expensive coal in another region and
wluire the relative volumes of these coals change between
scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price
of each coal increases, for example, but the weighted aver-
ago decreases because more lower priced coal and less
liiqluT priced <~o.il is forecast.
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
19B5 USE OF WESTERN COAL
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
O.B LB. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 tons)
industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Coonercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
weet-pm Coal Consumed in the East :
Metallurgical BitJ^Tou. Subbituaunous Lignite Total Metallurgical
3.2 - - 3.2 -
4.7
0.3
0.3
32.4 15-8 - 48'2
W.3 5.7 - 23.0 -
4.2 ±^£
49.7 25.7
0.4
,, , « » - 78.9 5.1
stern Coal Consumed in the West _
Bituminous Subbitu"iinous Lignite Total
12.7
2.6
0.2
-
21.2
30.3
51.5
2.9
69.8
65.1
9.7
37.6
117.9
9.4
165.0
-
239.7
-
17.6
16.0
48.2
-
81.8
77.8
7.3
0.2
27.3
74.8
196.3
9.4
3.3
396.4
Total
81.0
0.5
27.3
123.0
219.4
13.6
3.3
475.3
53.2
o «
tt I-
O
Tl
o
O
-o
O
m
a
i
i
<
o
-. H
tO
U1
I
-J
-------
1990 -JSE OF WESTERN COAL
WOEr. ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
. SO /MMBTU FU»R WITH EXEMPTIONS
( 106 tor.s)
Western Coal Consumed ir. -he East
Westerri Coal Ccr.sused ^r. tr.e West
Metallurgical
Metallurgical 0.5
Residential/
Cooraercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Sew
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 0.5
Bituminous Sutbitunur.ous
6. 1
0.1
-
34.4 13.9
15.7 74.1
6.2
51.1 94.3
.
57.3 94.3
Ligr.ite Total Metallurgical
6.
C.
0.
-
49.
89.
6.
145.
_ _
152.
1
5 5.1
1
-
3
8
2
4
0.4
1 5.5
Bituminous
13
2
0
1
16
72
-
89
3
11C
.6
. 1
.6
.7
.6
.3
.C
. 5
S'jbtitunir.G'js
,5,
-
23
32
192
9
234
-
415
.Z
.3
.1
.8
.4
.4
. 'j
Lignite
-
-
12.2
16.3
71.8
-
88. 1
-
100.4
Total
170
7
0
37
65
337
9
411
3
631
.3
.7
. 1
.9
. 1
.3
.4
.8
. 5
.3
Total
176.4
8.1
0.3
37.9
1 14.4
427.1
15.6
557.2
.1. ~,
783.3
o
SPS
*&
IE
SB
z
o
o
3
-o
O
a
5
m
o
CO
tn
I
-------
1995 USE OF WESTERN COA_L
UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDART. OT
0.8 LB. SO /HMBTU FLCXDR WITH EXEKFT I :>S 5
(10 tons)
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Industr ia1
Metallurgical
Residential/
Cocaercial
Synthet ics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
Vies- err. Coal Consumed in the East .estern uoui m..
Metallurgy: Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite Total .".eta-»--rgical Bituminous
5.9 - - 5.9 - 17.6
0-1 . - - 0.1 4- i 2.6
0., - - 0.1 - 0.1
4.6
30.0 9.4 - 39.4 - 16-0
13.7 130.0 - 143.7 - 80.1
73 - 7.3
43.7 146.6 - 190.4 - 9&
0.5 3
. 1
.2
181.7
37.9
34.4
301.6
9.4
345.5
Lignite Total
199
7
C
12.2 54
5.3 55
78.2 459
9
83.5 525
3
. 1
1
.8
.8
.9
.4
. 2
.6
Total
205
7
54
95
603
16
715
3
.3
.2
. 1
.8
.2
.6
.7
.5
0.1
49.7
146.6
196.4
4.9
124.2
565.2
95.8
790. 1
986.5
O
-------
ES CO )NS I> EJ
UNDER ALTERATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LBS. SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTION
6
(10 tons)
Supply Region
Consuming Region
New
England
Middle
Atlantic
1985
South
Atlantic
East Nort
Central
t a.out
Central
Total
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
50.00
1.04
33.92
1 .04
30.87
19. 13
27.38 58.75
19.13
78.92
1990
o
n
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Gieat Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
1.43
1.43
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
Total
-
-
1995
0.32
-
-
_ _
- -
0.32
57.30 74.76 132
18.56 - 18
75.86 76.19 152
1.21 1
77.83 106.58 184
10.47 - 10
_ _ _
_ _
SR.30 107.79 196
.06
.56
.05
.53
.41
.47
.41
w y
(T> n
(0 H-
3 3
cr H-
(T> P
^
O
vD &
00 rt
-------
B.17-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
GENERATION CAPACITY* (AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
UNDER CURRENT STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
GW (%)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1975 1985
1990
1995
NATIONAL
Nuclear
Coal**
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Hydro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
37.2 98.5 (66.9)
183.6 311.4
197.9 (61.1)
81.2 (57.6)
32.3 (61.6)
68.3
482.8
8
38
40
14
167.3 (66.9)
440.8 (55.7)
197.9 (56.6)
83.1 (56.5)
159.8 (54/1)
230.0 (66.9)
580.0 (52.7)
197.9 (51.1)
83.1(57.0)
299.0 (52.5)
192.1
147.3
2.7
42. 1
223.0 (25.9)
144.7
4.8
73.5
175.4 (15.9)
110.4
4.8
60.3
158.0 (
78.3
4.7
75.0
10.4)
84.4 (44.9)
717.3
14
44
31
12
87.8 (44.0)
871.3
19
51
20
10
89.5 (43.5)
1,057.5
22
55
15
8
* Effective capacity.
** Powerp.lants under ESECA orders to convert from oil and/or gas to
coal (14.3 GW) are assumed to convert by 1985.
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
B.lb-/
UTILITY CAPITAL COSTS UNDER CURRENT
STANDARD OF 0.8 LUS. SO /MMBTU
WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 $'s)
(Using 1978 dollars)
1985
1990
1995
Ndt i ona.l
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear (MW)
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas (MW)
Combined Cycle (MW)
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Ret.i of it
Conversion to WesttM'n Coal.
Tot.i L
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Kc'trof it
Tot.nl
148.2
62.7 (61.3)
75.4 (113.5)
54.0 (81.2)
21.4 (32.3)
10.1 (38.9)
0.9 (2.1)
9.2 (36.8)
5.5
105.0
8.0 (97.5)
2.3 (35.3)
3.3 (32.3)
2.4 (29.9)
0.3
267.0
1,022.8
665.0
662.5
664.3
428.6
250.0
259.6
65.2
102.2
80.3
82.1
305.2
132.6 (130.1)
162.1 (242.9)
55.2 (83.1)
106.9 (159.8)
10.5 (40.6)
0.9 (2.1)
9.6 (38.5)
6.6
176.1
18.5 (225.4)
2.4 (36.5)
13.7 (59.8)
2.4 (29.1)
0.4
506.8
1,019.2
664.3
669.0
667.4
428.6
249.4
258.6
65.8
85.7
82.4
82.1
466.5
196.9 (192.8)
257.1 (382.1
55.2 (83.
201.9 (299
12.5 (48.7)
0.9 (2.1
11.7 (46.
6.8
265.4
32.5 (368.1)
2.4 (37.
27.6 (299
2.5 (31.
0.4
771.6
1,021.3
664.3
675.3
672.9
428.6
251.1
256.7
63.5
92.3
79.9
88.3
)
1)
.0)
)
6)
8)
.0)
3)
(MW) -
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-:
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
1990
1995
New Enyla ml
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Kxist inij
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Middle Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Cnp.icl.t-y Partial, ly Scrubbed
Kx.i.nt. i n
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCKUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
East South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Kx i.st: i mj
NSPS
AN .SI'S
Tot-ill CVtpnt: i t.y Scrubbed
lix i.st i mj
NSPS
ANSPS
1985
GW
5.925 (90.0)
1990
GW
8.135 (90.0)
1995
GW
18.272 (90.0)
-
3.086
-
_
3.086
5.925
-
(40.7)
-
_
(40.7)
(90.0)
-
3.081
15.289
_
3.081
23.424
-
(40.7)
(33.1)
_
(40.7)
(52.9)
0.708
3.433
21 .506
0.708
3.433
39.778
(27.7)
(37.7)
(35.7)
(27.7)
(37.7)
(60.6)
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Kx ist: i nq
NSPS
ANSI'S
y.'!!.?t:._N.(>fth Centra 1
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Ex i s t i IKJ
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Kx i st i IKJ
NSPS
ANSPS
4.800
13.170
15.611
7.555
0.632
20.41 1
7.555
1J.B02
(90.0)
(90.0)
(51.8)
(46.0)
(32.9)
(60.8)
(46.0)
(07.4)
4.800
55.743
16.264
7.439
17.913
21.064
7.439
73.656
(90.0)
(90.0)
(51.4)
(43.5)
(33.1)
(60.2)
(43.5)
(76.2)
4.800
120.876
16.954
7.977
30.570
21 .754
7.977
151.446
(90.0)
(90.0)
(51.6)
(44.1)
(43.2)
(60.1)
(44.1)
(80.6)
1.406 (90.0)
4.218 (90.0)
12.369 (90.0)
4.241
7.753
-
4.241
7.753
1.406
(36.1)
(27.7)
-
(36.1)
(27.7)
(90.0)
2.773
9.417
6.668
2.773
9.417
10.886
(49.1)
(27.7)
(32.9)
(49.1)
(27.7)
(55.0)
4.283
10.238
14.934
4.283
10.238
27.303
(36.0)
(27.7)
(32.9)
(36.0)
(27.7)
(58.8)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B.19-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
West North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing ~
NSPS - ~ ~
ANSPS -
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 0.558 (33.2) 0.585 (33.2) 0.581 (33.2)
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.0)
ANSPS 3.021 (32.9) 7.902 (33.6) 16.616 (33.7)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 0.558 (33.2) 0.585 (33.2) 0.581 (33.2)
NSPS 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.7) 5.001 (27.0)
ANSPS 3.021 (32.9) 7.902 (33.6) 16.616 (33.7)
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing ~
NSPS ~
ANSPS 1.406 (90.0) 4.218 (90.0) 12.369 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 4.829 (35.7) 3.358 (46.3) 4.864 (35.7)
NSPS 12.754 (27.7) 14.418 (27.7) 15.239 (27.7)
ANSPS 3.021 (32.9) 14.570 (33.3) 31.550 (33.3)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 4.829 (35.7) 3.358 (46.3) 4.864 (35.7)
NSPS 12.754 (27.7) 14.418 (27.7) 15.239 (27.7)
4.427 (51.0) 18.788 (46.0) 43.919 (49.3)
West South Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing ~ ~
NSPS
ANSPS 4.144 (90.0) 8.539 (90.0) 8.539 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 1-110 (64.1) 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.253 (64.1) 5.251 (64.1)
ANSPS 3.710 (32.9) 35.890 (44.0) 51.196 (37.4)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 1-110 (64.1) 1.110 (64.1) 1.109 (64.1)
NSPS 5.645 (60.6) 5.253 (64.1) 5.251 (64.1)
7.854 (63.0) 44.429 (52.8) 59.735 (44.9)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCRUBBER CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
AND PERCENT OF
SO REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985
1990
1995
Mountain
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Exist ing
NSPS
AN KPS
GW
3.587 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
5.910 (62.2)
GW
3.583 (27.7)
9.318 (56.9)
18.989 (53.5)
GW
2.632
1.030
3.587
6.681
4.880
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.0)
(56.3)
2.829
2.537
3.583
6.489
16.452
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.5)
(47.9)
2.934
5.814
3.574
6.383
21.908
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(43.7)
(44.3)
3.574 (27.7)
9.317 (58.3)
27.722 (53.9)
Pacific
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
0.331 (90.0)
0.493 (90.0)
0.331 (90.0)
0.100
3.468
0.100
3.961
(27.7)
(37.7)
(27. 7)
(44.2)
7.450 (90.0)
8.768 (32.9)
16.218 (59.1)
REST OF WEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSI'S
(.ip.li- i I- y P.I ft i.illy Scrubbed
Kx i st. i n«i
NSPS
AN SPG
Total. Capacity Scrubbed
Ex is tint)
NSPS
ANSPS
2.632
1.361
(90.0)
(90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
(>.6H1 (43.0)
4.880 (56.3)
3.578 (27.7)
9.313 (56.3)
6.241 (63.6)
2.829
3.303
3.583
6.589
19.920
3.583
9.418
22.950
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(42.3)
(46.1)
(27.7)
(56.6)
(51.9)
2.934
13.264
(90.0)
(90.0)
3.574 (27.7)
9.317 (58.3)
30.676 (41.0)
3.574 (27.7)
9.317 (58.3)
43.940 (55.8)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
B 19-
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SCKIWUEK CAPACITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF
0.8 LB. SO /MMBTU WITH EXEMPTIONS
ANU PERCENT OF S*O REMOVED (ON ANNUAL BASIS)
(GW)
1985 1990 1995
GW (%) GW (%) GW (%)
NATIONAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0) 4.800 (90.0)
NSPS 2.632 (90.0) 2.829 (90.0) 2.934 (90.0)
ANSPS 20.082 (90.0) 71.531 (90.0) 155.048 (90.0)
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing 25.137 (44.5) 24.314 (46.4) 26.505 (44.7)
NSPS 32.635 (40.8) 33.699 (39.7) 37.850 (39.9)
ANSPS 12.243 (42.2) 88.293 (40.5) 143.992 (38.5)
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing 29.937 (51.8) 29.114 (53.6) 31.305 (51.6)
NSPS 35.267 (44.5) 36.528 (43.6) 37.784 (43.8)
ANSPS 32.325 (71.9) 159.824 (62.7) 299.040 (65.2)
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
11
r)
o
>
CL
>"
ri
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
CURRENT STANDARD OE 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(10 Tons)
C. 1 - 1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.8
Low
Sulfur
431.8
11.5
420.3
184.3
-
0.2
2.6
2.7
621.8
Medium
Sulfur
422.0
251.8
170.2
0.3
31.2
0.5
33.2
3.8
491.1
High
Sulfur
158.8
61.1
97.7
91.5
-
-
20.0
9.3
279.6
Total
1012.6
324.4
688.2
276. 1
100. 1
0.7
55.9
76.8
1522.2
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
C.1 - 2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.8
Low
Sulfur
225.3
42o8
182.5
184.9
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
Medium
Sulfur
544.0
343.2
200.8
0.5
31.3
0.5
33.0
3.9
High
Sulfur
222.2
124.2
98.0
92.3
-
-
20.4
9.2
Total
991.5
510.3
481.2
271. &
100. 1
0.7
56. 1
76.9
415.8
613.2
344. 1
1592.9
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.1 - 3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
231.3
42.8
188.6
184.8
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
421.7
Medium
Sulfur
597.6
401.7
195.9
0. 1
31.4
0.5
33.0
3.9
666.5
High
Sulfur
160.8
62.6
98.2
91.6
-
-
20.3
9.2
281.9
Total
989.8
507. 1
482.6
276.5
100.3
0.7
55.9
76.9
1500. 1
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C. 1 - 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO2/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
D
(10 Tons)
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.8
61.0
129.8
Low
Sulfur
277.5
101.5
176. 1
184.9
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
468.2
Medium
Sulfur
508.7
308.8
199.9
0.4
31.3
0.5
33.2
3.8
578.0
High
Sulfur
220.0
122.8
97.2
92.5
-
-
20.4
9.3
342.1
Total
1006.4
533. 1
473.3
277. 8
100. 1
0.7
56.2
76.9
1518. 1
ICF INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
C.1 - 5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.9
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
302.0
120.5
181.5
184.7
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
492.3
Medium
Sulfur
543.5
345.9
197.6
0.3
31.4
0.5
33.0
3.9
612.7
High
Sulfur
160.6
62.9
97.7
91.7
-
-
20.2
9.2
281.7
Total
1006. 1
529.3
476.9
276.7
100.3
0.7
55.8
76.9
1516.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C. 1 - 6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERC IAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Low
Metallurgical Sulfur
370.2
200.9
169.3
184.8
68.8
0.2
2.6
61.0 2.8
129.8 560.7
Medium
Sulfur
444. 1
245.0
199. 1
-
31.3
0.5
34.0
3.9
513.8
High
Sulfur
198.4
101.7
96.7
92.3
-
-
19.4
9.2
319.3
Total
1012.6
547.6
465.0
277.2
100. 1
0.7
56. 1
76.8
1523.6
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS. S02/MMBTU
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 Tons)
C. 1 - 7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITY
Scrubbed
Not Scrubbed
Variance
INDUSTRIAL
METALLURGICAL
RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL
SYNTHETICS
EXPORT
TOTAL
Metallurgical
68.9
61.0
129.9
Low
Sulfur
366.4
194.4
172.0
184.8
-
0.2
2.6
2.8
556.8
Medium
Sulfur
451.9
252.8
199.0
-
31.3
0.5
33.2
3.8
520.8
High
Sulfur
194.5
97.8
96.7
92.4
-
-
20. 1
9.2
316.3
Total
1012.8
545. 1
467.7
277.2
100. 1
0.7
56.0
76.8
1523.7
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.2
Preliminary Draft
September 1. 1978
1990 3
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS (10 TONS)
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs. Wit-'.
0.2 Iba. Without 0.5 Ibs. With 0.5 Ibs. Without
o
o
o
DO
s
3J
3>
Hew England
Coal Plants
Existing
KSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
HSPS
ABSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
US PS
AHSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
US PS
AHSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
East
Coal Plants
Existing
MS PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
108.7
109.7
46.5
264.9
1,478.5
105.9
344.8
297.0
2, 226. 2
3,107.6
183.2
944.6
254.9
4,490.2
2,229.8
239.9
681. 5
52.6
3,203.8
6.924.6
529.0
2,080.6
651.0
10, 185.2
143. E
~
-
108.3
252.0
1,468.7
72.4
130.8
297.6
1,969.4
3, 111. 1
190.5
347.7
303.0
3,952.3
2,246.0
253.0
299.2
53.2
2.781.4
6,969.6
515.9
707.7
762.1
8,955.3
148.2
108.2
256.4
1,469.9
79. 1
108.4
305.6
1,962.6
3, 118.6
264.6
241.9
310.7
3,935.7
2,288.9
265.4
164.8
56.2
2,775.4
7,025.1
609. 1
515.1
780.7
8,930.0
143.8
1,468.7
72.4
131.9
297.6
1,970. 5
3, 111.3
184.2
351.4
303.0
3,949.9
2,243.3
246.8
231.9
53.2
2,775.3
6,967. 1
503.4
715.2
762.0
8,947.7
148.2
0.67 Ibs. With
148.8
108.3
3,118.6
265.5
240.9
310.7
3,935.7
2,264.9
265.4
172.0
56.2
2.758.5
7,001.3
609.9
521.3
780.7
8,913.2
252.0
1,468.7
72.4
132.6
297.6
1,971.3
3,111.5
184.2
348.8
303.0
3,947.5
2.243.4
207.1
266.9
53.2
2,770.5
0.8 Ibs. With
143.8
108.3
252.0
2,243.3
204.5
305.2
53.2
2,806.2
6,967.5
468.4
788.5
156.1
8,986.3
-------
C.2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
ANNUM. SC EMISSIONS ' 1 ' TOSS,
1.2 Lbs.
0.2 Ibs. With
0.2 Ibs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With O.S Ibs. Without
o
Tl
z
o
o
a
-o
o
a
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Pls.-.ts
TOTAL
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Midwest
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
West South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
4,
5,
1,
2,
6,
7,
1,
2,
612.
410.
279.
50.
353.
779.
322.
275.
33.
411.
392.
733.
555.
84.
765.
150.
637.
160.
247.
245.
334.
165.
500.
9.
e
2
8
9
9
9
a
6
4
8
7
0
4
3
4
6
3
6
1
6
0
/,
0
1
4,652.
45E.
129.
80.
5, 317.
1,813.
403.
39.
38.
2, 293.
6,465.
858.
168.
lie.
7,610.
150.
700.
239.
404.
1,495.
358.
172.
95.
20.
5
1
4
'
4
3
1
0
1
5
8
2
4
4
9
6
5
4
6
0
2
8
1
6
1,008.6
646.6
4,781.1
472. 1
64.2
82.5
5,400.0
1,827.3
401.7
37.0
39.5
2,305.6
6,608.4
873.4
101. 2
122.0
7,705.4
150.6
700.5
238.3
406.3
1,495.6
358.2
172.8
95. 1
20.6
646.6
4,712.9
447.5
121.8
80.3
5,362.2
1,684. 1
419. 1
49. :
36.9
2, 189. 1
6, 397.0
866.6
170.9
117.2
7,551.7
150.6
700.7
280. 1
251.0
1,382. 3
357.8
174. 0
127.9
18.7
678.4
4,839.8
463.4
64.4
82.5
5,450.0
1,720.3
419. 1
47.8
36.8
2,223.9
6,560.1
882.5
112.2
119.3
7,674.1
150.6
699.3
277.5
251 .0
1,378.3
357.8
174.0
127.9
18.7
678.4
0.67 Ibs. With
4,736.2
453.6
120.3
80.3
5,390.4
1,669.2
415.2
64.7
35.7
2, 184.7
6,405.4
888.8
185.0
116.0
7,575.1
150.6
700.7
353.5
247. 1
1,451.8
356.6
169.7
184.6
17.0
727.9
0.8 Ibs. With
4,732.8
453.5
135.6
80.2
5,402. 1
1,670.0
414.7
78.2
35.7
2,200.C
6,404.8
868.2
213.a
115.9
7,602.7
150.6
700.7
460.8
247. 1
1,559.2
339.2
169. 3
237. 3
9.2
755.0
m
O
-------
1990
ANNUAL SO EMISSIONS (10 TONS)
C.2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1378
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs. With
0.2 Ibs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With 0.5 Ibs. Without
0.67 Ibs. With
0.8 Ibs. Witt-.
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
AKSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Rest of West
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
AKSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
National
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
AKSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
38.3
16.4
89.2
93.3
237.2
372.3
181.8
589.2
102.4
1,245.7
13,804.2
2, 131.0
4,385.9
1,084.8
21,442.0
38.3
12.2
11.8
96.2
158.5
396.5
185.0
106.9
116.8
805.2
13,982.4
2,259.5
1,222.4
1,401.8
18,866. 1
38. 3
12.2
11.8
96.2
158.5
396.5
188.0
106.9
116.8
805. 1
14, 180.7
2,368.3
961.5
1,425.8
18,936.4
38.3
17.6
32.8
96.2
184.9
396. 1
191.6
160.7
114.9
863.3
13,910.7
2,262.3
1,326.8
1,245.1
18,744.8
38.3
17.6
32.8
96.2
184.9
396. 1
191.6
160.7
114.9
863.3
14, 108.0
2,383.2
1,071.6
1,265.9
18,828.7
38.3
17.7
45.9
96.2
198. 1
394.9
187.4
230.5
113.2
926.0
13,918.2
2,220.5
1, 517.2
1,238.5
18,894.3
38.3
17.7
55.5
93.3
204.7
377.5
186.9
292.8
102.5
959.7
13,900.3
2,224. 1
1,755.9
1.227.6
19,107.9
o
n
O
3
-o
O
3
m
O
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1373
1990
ANNUAL PAKTICULATE EMISSIONS (1'/ TOSS)
1.2 Lbs.
0.2 Ibs. With
0.2 Ibs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With C-. 5 Ibs. Without
0.67 Ibs. With
0.6 Ibs. Witr.
o
Tl
z
o
o
3
o
O
3»
New Sngia.-.'i
Coai Piar.ts
Ex is* ir.g
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plar>-s
TOTAL
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plar.-.s
TOTAL
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plar.ts
TOTAL
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
East
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
7. 1
-
9.C
4. 1
20.3
55.6
8.8
28.6
26.0
119. 1
124.0
15.3
78.6
20.0
237.9
65.7
20.0
56.6
4.5
146.8
252.4
44. 1
172.8
54.6
523.9
10.4
-
-
9.3
19.6
52.9
6.0
10.3
26. 1
95.3
121.6
15.9
24.4
23.7
185.5
67.5
21. 1
16.4
4.5
109.6
252.4
43.0
51 . 1
63.6
346.5
10.4
9.3
19.6
52.9
6.6
9.7
26.8
96.0
124.0
22. 1
21.7
24.3
192. 1
70.7
22. 1
14.9
4.9
112.6
258.0
50.8
46. 3
65.3
420.4
10.4
9.3
19.8
52.9
6.0
10. 3
_26_._1
95.3
121. 1
15.4
24.5
23.7
185.2
67.6
20.6
16.6
4.5
109. 3
252.0
42.0
51.4
63.6
409.6
10.4
9.3
19.8
52.9
6.6
9.7
26.8
96.0
124.0
22. 1
21.7
24.3
192.2
68.7
22. 1
15.5
4.9
111.2
256.0
50.8
46.9
65.3
419.0
10.4
9.3
19.8
53.9
6.0
10.3
26.1
95.3
121.6
15.4
24.5
23.7
185.1
67.6
17.3
17.4
4.5
106.8
253.5
38.7
52.2
63.6
407.0
1C.4
9.3
19.6
52.9
6.0
9.9
26. 1
94.9
121.6
16.0
24.7
23.7
186.0
67.6
17.0
17.4
4.5
106.6
252.5
39.0
52.0
63.6
407. 3
-------
C.3
Preliminary Draft
September 1. 1978
1990
ANNUM. PAKTICULATe EMISSIONS
'1C3 7.
ONS)
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs. With
0.2 Lbs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With
0.5 Lbs. Without
0.67 Ibs. With
0.8 Lbs. With
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
West Berth Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAI.
Midwest
Goal Plants
Existing
US PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
West South Central
146.4
34.7
30.0
5.2
216.2
42.2
31.2
28.3
3.2
104.9
188.6
65. 9
58.3
8.4
321.4
152.1
37.9
7.8
8.2
206.0
43.2
35.2
4.2
3.7
86.3
195.3
73.1
12.0
11.9
292.3
O
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Mountain
6.6
57.3
96.6
21.3
181.8
6.6
58.4
25. 1
34.7
124.8
" INCORPORAl
Goal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
30.8
26.2
51.3
1.2
109.5
33.5
27. 1
14.3
2.3
77.2
157.5
39.5
5.8
8.4
211.2
43.3
35.2
4. 1
3.8
86.3
200.8
74.7
9.9
12.2
297.6
6.6
58.4
25. 1
34.9
125.0
33.5
27.2
14.3
2.3
77.2
152. 1
37.3
7.5
8.2
205.0
43.0
36.0
4.5
3.6
87. 1
195. 1
73.3
12.0
11.8
292. 1
6.6
58.4
29.6
21.7
116.2
33. 1
27.8
14.2
2.1
77.2
156.7
38.6
5.8
8.4
209.6
43.0
35.9
4.5
3.5
86.9
199.7
74.5
10.3
11.9
296.5
6.6
58.4
29.6
21.6
116.2
33. 1
27.8
14.2
2.13
77.2
152. 1
37.8
7.7
8.2
205.8
42.7
35.5
4.4
3.5
86.0
194.8
73.3
12.1
11.7
291.8
6.6
58.4
29.5
21.3
115.8
32.9
26.6
14.5
2.0
76.0
152.0
37.8
7.7
8.2
205.7
42.7
35.5
4.4
3.4
86.0
194.7
73.3
12. 1
11.6
291.8
6.6
58.4
29.3
21.3
115.6
31.5
26.5
15.3
1.2
74.5
-------
1990
ANNUAL PAKTICULATE EMISSIONS (10 TONS)
C.3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 ibs. With
0.2 Ibs. Without. 0.5 Ibs. With 0.5 Ibs. Without
0.67 Ibs. With
0.8 Ibs. With
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
US PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plar.ts
TOTAL
Rest of West
Coal Plants
Existing
MS PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
National
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
1.5
1.5
11.0
9.7
23.7
32.3
27.7
62.3
10.9
133.2
480. 1
194.6
390.3
95.3
1, 160.5
1. 5
1. 5
3.6
10.0
16.6
35. 1
28.6
17.9
12.3
93.7
489.4
203.2
106.0
122.5
921.0
1.5
1.5
3.6
10.0
16.6
35.0
28.7
17.9
12.3
93.9
500.5
212.4
99.2
124.7
936.9
1.5
1.5
3.4
10.0
16.4
34.6
29.3
17.6
12.1
93.6
488.4
202.9
110.6
109.2
911.5
1.5
1.5
3.4
10.0
16.4
34.6
29.3
17.6
12.1
93.6
495.0
213.0
104.5
111.1
1. 5
1.5
3.3
10.0
925.6
16.4
39.5
85.0
44.0
23.3
92.4
488.3
198.4
111.6
108.6
906.9
1.5
1.5
3.3
9.7
16. 1
33.0
28.0
18.6
10.9
90.6
486.8
198.7
112.0
107.5
905. 1
o
O
O
30
TJ
O
30
5
m
O
-------
C.4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1976
1990
AHNUAL NO MISSIONS (10 TONS)
1.2 Iba.
0.2 Ibs. With
0.2 Ibs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With 0.5 Ibs. Without
0.67 Lbs. With
0.6 Ibs. With
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
KSPS
MJSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
53.6
-
64. 0
34.2
151.7
417.2
61. 8
201.2
233.1
913.3
78.2
-
-
80.1
158.3
396.8
42.2
205.5
233.6
878. 1
78.3
80.1
158.4
397.0
46. 1
194.8
239.5
877.4
78.2
80.1
158.3
396.8
42.2
205.6
233.6
878.2
78.2
80.1
158.3
397.0
46. 1
194.8
239.5
877.4
78.2
80.1
158.3
396.8
42.2
205.7
233.5
878.3
78.2
80.1
158.3
397.8
42.2
197.9
233.6
870.5
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
930.4
106.8
551.2
125.8
1.714.3
911.9
111. 1
487.3
151.0
1,661.3
930.2
154.3
434.5
154.6
1,673.7
911.9
107.4
490.6
151.0
1,661.0
930.2
154.9
433.9
154.6
1,673.6
912.0
107.4
489.9
151.0
1,660.4
912. 1
111.7
493.9
151.0
1,668.7
East South Central
o
n
z
0
o
3D
-o
O
a
m
o
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
East
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gaa Plants
TOTAL
479.8
139.9
397.7
18.6
1,036.0
1,881.0
308.5
1,214. 1
411.7
3,824.3
493.5
147.6
302.4
18.8
962.2
1,880.4
300.9
995.2
483.5
3,660.0
523.3
154.8
265.6
20.0
963.7
1,928.8
355.2
894.9
494.2
3,673. 1
493.8
144.0
305.6
18.8
962.2
1,880.7
293.6
1,001.8
483.5
3,659.7
508.2
154.8
274. 1
20.0
957.2
1,913.6
355.8
902.8
494.2
3,666.4
493.8
120.8
308.4
18.8
941.8
1,880.8
270.4
1,004.0
483.4
3,638.8
493.8
119.3
308.3
18.8
940.2
1,881.9
273.2
1,000.1
483.5
3,637.7
-------
199C
.-3
AS-VJAL S'Cx EMISSIONS 10 TONS)
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
O
Tl
o
o
2)
0
O
a
5
m
O
Eas. Ssr~ Ce.-.tral
~-'**l Plar.ts
Existing
SSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
it'est North Central
Coal Plar.ts
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Kidirest
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Piar.ts
TOTAL
west Soutr, Central
Coal Plants
Existing
SSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
1,088.6
242.7
169.4
50.1
1,550.9
200.8
223.6
200.8
24.2
729. 1
1.369.2
466.3
370.2
74.3
2,280.0
66.3
415.9
700.0
186.5
1,368.7
259.6
183. 1
359.6
8.4
810.7
- . A --;> . ixi tn
1,131.1
265.5
155.2
81.4
1,633.2
284.9
252.2
77.5
26.3
640.8
1,416.0
517.6
232.7
107.7
2,274.0
66.3
423.6
523.6
303.6
1,317.1
277.9
190.0
257.0
19.3
744.2
0.2 Ifcs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With
1, 172.5
276.7
115.3
83.4
1,642.9
285.1
251.3
75.9
27.3
639.7
1,475.5
528.0
191 .2
110.7
2,305.5
66.3
423.6
520.4
304.8
1,315.1
1,131.2
261.1
148.0
81.3
1,621.5
280.6
258.3
85.6
25.5
649.9
1,411 .8
519.4
233.6
106.8
2,271.4
66.3
423.6
61 1 .2
189.2
1,290.4
274.2
194.5
254.5
17.5
740.8
0.5 Ibs. Without
1,164.2
270.3
112.2
83.4
1,630.1
282.3
257.5
84.0
25.4
649.3
1,446.5
527.8
196.2
108.8
2,279.3
66.3
423.6
610.3
189.2
1,289.4
274.2
194.5
254.5
17.5
740.8
0.67 Ibs. With
1,131.5
264. 6
140.C
81.3
1,616.4
278.3
254.9
79.7
25.5
638.4
1,409.8
519.5
219.7
106.8
2,254.8
66.3
423.7
607.2
186.4
1,283.7
275.0
185.9
256.8
15.9
733.6
0.8 Ibs. With
1 , 129.6
264.6
136.9
81 . 1
1,612.0
278.7
254.6
79.7
25.5
638.5
1,409.3
519.2
216.5
106.6
2,250.5
66.3
423.6
604.3
186.4
1,280.8
264. >
185.4
277. 1
8.5
735.1
-------
C.4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
ANN DM. SO BUSS IONS (10 TONS)
x
1.2 Ibs. 0.2 ibs. With 0.2 Ibs. Without 0.5 Ibs. With 0.5 Ibs. Without 0.67 Ibs. With 0.8 Ibs. With
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
US PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
13.6
10.2
76.4
117.1
217.3
13.6
10.2
60. 1
121.0
20S.O
13.6
10.2
60. 1
121.0
205.0
13.6
10.3
57.9
121.0
202.8
13.6
10.2
57.9
121.0
202.7
13.6
10.3
56.3
121.0
201.3
13.6
10.3
56. 1
121.0
197. 1
Rest of Meet
Coal Plants
Existing
BSPS
ASS PS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
273.2
193.3
436.0
125.4
1,027.9
291.5
200.2
317. 1
140.3
949. 1
291.5
200.3
317. 1
140.3
949.2
287.8
204.8
312.4
138.S
943.6
287.8
104.7
312.4
138.5
943.5
288.6
196.2
213. 1
136.9
201.3
277.7
195.7
333.2
194.9
932.2
National
Goal Plants
Existing
US PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
TOTAL
3,589.7
1,384.0
2,720.3
797.9
8,491.9
3,654. 1
1,442.4
2,068.6
1,035.0
8, 200.0
3,744.2
1,507.2
1,92352
1,050.1
8,224.9
3,646.5
1,441.5
2, 159.1
918.0
8,165.0
3,714.4
1,512.0
2,021.7
930.8
8,178.9
3,644.6
1,409.9
2,144.0
913.7
8,112. 1
3,633.3
1,411.7
2, 154.0
902. 1
8, 101.2
o
Tl
z
o
o
3D
-0
§
§
o
-------
o
o
3J
-o
O
a
3
m
O
1990
SATIOSAL UTILITY FUEL CONSUMPTION
(quadrillion BTU's)
C. 5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
National
Coal
Existing
REPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
TOTAL
Percent of Total
Coal
Oil/Gas
Nuclear
Hydro and Other
1.2 Ibs.
21. 3
9.6
3.9
7.8
2.6
9.8
3.4
37. 1
56.6
7.0
26.4
9.2
0.2 Ibs.
With
20.9
9.8
4.0
7. 1
3.3
9.8
3.4
37.4
55.9
8.8
26.2
9. 1
0.2 Ibs.
Without
2C.8
10.2
4.2
6.6
3.4
9.8
3.4
37. 5
55. 7
9. 1
26. 1
9. 1
0.5 Ibs. 0.5 Ibs.
With Without
21.3 21.2
9.8 9.9
4.1 4.3
7.4 7.0
3.0 3.0
9.6 9.8
3.4 3.4
37.4 37.4
57 56.7
8 8.0
26 26.2
9 9.1
0.67 Ihs. 0.8 Ibs.
Ki-'r. With
21.2 21.2
9.S 9.7
4.0 4.0
7.4 7.5
3.0 2.9
9.8 9.8
3.4 3.4
37.3 37.3
56.6 56.6
8.0 7.8
26.3 26.3
9. 1 9.1
o
-------
1990
UTILITY OIL/GAS CONSUMPTION
(quadrillion BTO's)
C.6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
East North Central
Nest North Central
MIDWEST
1.2 Ibs.
1. 109
0.694
0.427
0.109
1.339
0.169
0.109
0.2 Ibs.
With
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
1.549
0.268
0.120
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.240
0.713
0.518
0.128
1.599
0.275
0.124
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
1.549
0.268
0.117
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.240
0.713
0.518
0.128
1.599
0.275
0.117
0.67 IDS.
With
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
1.549
0.268
0.115
0.8 Ibs.
With
0.240
0.696
0.502
0.111
1.549
0.266
0.115
0.278
West Sooth Central O.S48
WEST SOOTH CESTRAI.
Mountain
Pacific
WEST 0.462
TOTAL 2.628
0.388
0.885
0.504
3.327
0.399
o.e
0.504
3.391
0.385
0.558
0.392
0.548
0.499
2.992
0.499
3.049
0.383
0.548
0.495
2.975
0.381
0.548
0.548
0.053
0.409
0.885
0.084
0.420
0.888
0.084
0.420
0.558
0.079
0.420
0.548
0.079
0.420
0.548
0.075
0.420
0.548
0.054
0.409
0.463
2.941
o
I
3
s
3>
m
o
-------
1990
CHANGE IN INCREMENTAL ANN'JALIZED COSTS OF ELECTRIC IT t
(Percentage Change in Rates from Current Sta-ndard)
(1978 S's)
C.7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
C.2 Ibs.
Vi th
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.67 Ibs.
With
0.8 Ibs.
With
New Englar.d
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
EAST
12.9
81.2
300.9
206.0
(0.26)
(0.70)
(0.93)
(1.36)
9.1
139.7
593.8
203.8
(0. 18}
(1.20)
(1.91)
(1.91)
12.9
83.7
305.5
191.2
(0.26)
(0.71)
(0.96)
(1.22)
9.0
129.7
586.2
184.0
!0. 17)
(1.14)
(1.88)
( 1 . 70 )
13.0
87.8
288.7
147.9
(0.3)
(0.7)
(0.9)
(1.1)
12.9
(27.8)
397.2
129.9
<0.2>
10.6}
(1.0)
(1.0)
601.0
946.4
593.3
908.9
537.4
512.2
East Norrh Central
West North Centra1.
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL ANNUALIZEO COST
Present Value of Change
in Annual! zed Cost
Objective Function
Present Value of Changes
in Objective Function
817.8
(545-4)
272.4
963.6
963.6
270.0
176.7
446.7
2,283.8
(1.48)
(0. 53)
(5. 18)
(4.0)
(1.25)
(1.70)
943.8
(572.2)
371.6
976.1
976. 1
272.3
176.7
449.0
2,743.2
( 1 . 82 )
(0.37)
(5.16)
(4.0)
(1.25)
(2.06)
692. 1
(450.9)
241.2
884.3
884.3
197.8
121.7
319.5
2,038. 3
( 1 . 38 )
(0.37)
(4.76)
(2.91)
(0.82)
( 1.51 )
810.2
(485.6)
324.6
901.0
901.0
199.5
121 .8
321.3
2,455.9
(1.69)
(0.19)
(4.76)
(2.94)
(0.82)
( 1 . 84 )
746.2
(598.8)
147.4
662.6
662.6
98.2
84.9
183. 1
1, 530.4
(1.2)
(0.5)
(3.6)
(1.6)
(0.6)
(1.1)
733.9
(606.3)
127.6
512.3
512.3
146. 1
32.2
178. 3
1, 330.4
(1.1)
(0.6)
(2.8)
(1.8)
(0.3)
(1.0)
26,002.5
2,061.5
23,425.3
31,082.7
2,286.6
26,076.1
23, 183.2
1,867.6
21,232.0
27,811.5
2,076.2
23,696.3
17,387.2
1,500. 1
17,052.4
15, 113.7
1, 295.8
14,749. 2
o
O
O
a
TJ
o
3
m
o
-------
1990
REDUCTION IN SO EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CURRENT STANDARD
(10 Tons)
C.8
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East: South Central
EAST
East North Central
Heat North Central
MIDWEST
West South Central
WEST SOOTH CENTRAL
Mountain
Pacific
WEST
TOTAL
3.2 Lbs.
1.2 Lbs. With
12.9
256.8
537.9
422.4
1,229.9
36.4
118.3
154.5
750.6
750.6
362.0
78.7
440.6
2,575.9
0.2 IbB.
Without
8.5
263.9
554.5
428.4
1,255.0
(46.2)
106.2
60.2
750.0
750.0
362.0
78.7
440.6
2,505.6
0.5 Lbs.
With
12.9
255.7
540.3
428.5
1,237.5
(8.8)
222.7
213.7
863.3
863.3
330.2
52.3
382.5
2,697.2
0.5 Lbs.
Without
8.5
263.6
554.5
445.3
1,271.9
(96.2)
187.5
91.3
867.3
867.3
330.2
52. 3
382.5
2,613.3
0.67 Ibs.
With
12.9
254.9
542.7
433.3
1,243.8
(36.6)
227.1
190.5
793.8
793.8
280.7
39.1
319.8
2,547.7
0.8 Lbs.
With
12.9
261.4
526.9
397.6
1, 198.8
(48.3)
211.2
162.9
686.4
686.4
253.6
32.5
286. 1
2,334. 1
o
Tl
o
o
3D
o
s
£5
m
o
-------
o
Tl
z
o
o
2)
TJ
O
a
m
o
C.9
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1976
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST SOOTH CCCRAi.
REST OF WEST
NATIONAL
1990
AVERACT COST PER TON OF SO REMOVED
{10 Tons)
(1978 S's)
0.2 Ibs.
1.2 Ibs. With
0.49
1.76
1.28
1.01
0.89
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.75
6. 19
1.30
1.02
1.09
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.46
1. 13
1.02
0.84
0.76
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.71
3.56
1.04
0.84
0.9-4
0.67 Ibs.
With
0.43
0.77
0.83
0.57
0.60
0.8 Ibs.
With
0.42
0.78
0.75
0.62
0.57
-------
1990
AGGREGATED REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
(10 Tonal
C.10
Preliminary Draft
September 1. 1978
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachla
Southern Appalachla
AFPALACHIA
MIDWEST
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
Central West
Gulf
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
REST OP WEST
TOTAL
1.2 Ibs.
245.6
202.9
16.2
464.7
275.4
28.9
558.1
587.1
8.8
68.9
54.2
61.9
3.7
197.6
1,524.6
0.2 Ibs.
With
255.2
178.3
15.4
0.2 Ibs.
Without
269.7
183.5
16.1
0.5 Ibs.
With
255.5
179.2
15.4
0.5 Ibs.
Without
266.3
184.9
16.1
0.67 Ibs.
With
255.4
179.2
15.4
0.8 Ibs.
With
254.5
179.2
15.4
448.8
317.9
27.9
513.8
541.8
10.9
71.8
48.2
59 .a
3.7
193.6
1,502.0
469.0
276.9
27.9
530.3
558.2
10.4
71.8
49.7
59.0
3.7
194.6
1,498.7
450.0
315.6
30.5
521.6
552.1
10.2
71.8
54.5
59.4
3.7
199.8
1,517.3
467.3
275.3
30.3
541.2
571.5
9.7
71.8
56.2
59.7
3.7
201.1
1,515.2
449.9
293.7
28.6
555.5
584.1
8.9
71.8
56.2
54.7
3.7
195.3
1,522.8
449.0
290.4
28.6
554.3
582.9
9.2
71.8
54.6
61.4
3.7
200.7
1,522.9
o
-n
z
o
o
3J
TJ
O
3J
5
m
o
-------
1990
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
(10 Tons)
C.li
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Northern Appalachiar
MetallurgicaL
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Central Appalachiar.
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.2 Ibs.
31.9
74.4
138.7
0.6
24S.6
144.7
4.2
33.7
20.3
0.2 Ibs.
With
21.5
89.0
144.2
0.4
255.2
125.4
4.2
30.7
17.9
0.2 Ibs.
Without
24. 1
76.3
168.9
0.4
269.7
126.7
4.2
33.6
18.5
0.5 Ibs.
With
21. 5
89.6
144.0
0.4
255.5
125.4
4.2
31. 1
18.4
0.5 Ibs.
Without
24. 1
76.2
165.4
0.5
266. 3
129.0
4.2
33.3
18.5
;.7 ibs.
i th
21.5
89.9
143.5
0.4
255.4
125.4
4.2
31. 1
18.4
0.8 Ibs.
With
21.9
89.6
142.5
0.4
254.5
125.4
4.2
31. 1
18.4
202.9
178.3
183.5
179.2
184.9
179.2
179.2
Southern Appalarhiar
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
6.2
4.5
5.5
16.2
5.8
4.4
5.1
15.4
5.9
4.7
5.5
16. 1
5.8
4.4
5.1
15.4
5.9
4.6
5.5
16. 1
5.8
4.4
5.1
5.8
4.4
5.1
15.4
15.4
APPALACH1A
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
182.9
78.6
176.8
26.4
464.7
152.8
93.2
179.3
23.5
448.8
156.7
80.5
207.4
24.4
469.0
152.8
93.8
179.5
24.0
450.0
159.0
80.4
203.4
24.5
467. 3
152.8
94. 1
179.0
24.0
449.9
153.2
93.8
178.0
24.0
449.0
o
MIDWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
196.8
77.5
1. 1
275.4
244.5
72.3
1 .0
317.9
197.0
78.9
1.0
276.9
242.2
72.3
1 .0
315.6
196.5
77.7
1 .1
275.3
220.3
72.3
1.0
293.7
217. 1
72.3
1.0
290.4
O
O
30
o
§
m
O
EASTERN NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.3
22.5
6.1
28.9
0.3
22.6
5.0
27.9
0.3
22.6
5.0
27.9
0.3
24.0
6. 1
30.5
0. 3
24.0
6.0
30. 3
0. 3
24.0
4.3
28.6
0.3
24.0
4.3
28.6
-------
1990
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
(10 Tons)
C.ll
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs.
With
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.5 Lbs.
Without
0.67 Ibs.
With
0.8 Ibs.
With
WESTERN NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Lo-v Sulfur
TOTAL
127.7
430.4
558. 1
199.3
314.6
513.8
214.9
315.4
530.3
171.2
350.4
521.6
173.4
367.7
541.2
114.4
441.1
555.5
114.8
439.4
554.3
NORTHERN (SEAT PLAINS
Metallurgical
Higta Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.3
150.2
436.6
587. 1
0.3
221.8
319.6
541.8
0.3
237.4
320.4
558.2
0.3
195.2
356.5
552.1
0.3
197.4
373.7
571.5
0.3
138.4
445.3
584. 1
0.3
138.8
443.7
582.9
Central West
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.4
4.6
2.9
1.0
0.2
6.5
3.3
0.9
8.8
10.9
0.3
5.5
3.7
0.9
10.4
0.2
6.5
2.7
0.9
10.2
0.3
5.2
3.2
1.0
9.7
0.2
5.3
2.5
0.9
8.9
0.2
S.6
2.5
0.9
9.2
Gulf
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
68.9
68.9
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.8
71.9
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i
5
m
O
Rockies
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Southwest
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Media* Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
4.2
8.7
41.3
54.2
16.9
45.0
61.9
4.2
9.6
34.4
48.2
16.9
42.2
59.0
4.2
9.9
35.6
49.7
16.9
42.2
59.0
4.2
9.3
41.0
54.5
16.9
42.6
59.4
4.2
9.7
42.2
56.2
16.9
42.9
49.7
4.2
8.9
43.0
56.2
16.9
38.1
54.7
4.2
8.9
41.4
54.6
-------
o
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3
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a
m
D
1990
REGIONAL COAL PRODUCTION
(10 Tons)
C.ll
Prelig'.-.ary Draft
Septeaber 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs.
With
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.67 Lbs.
With
0.8 Ibs.
Wi t h
NORTHWEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
REST OF THE WEST
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
4.4
4.6
101. 1
36.6
197.6
4.4
6.5
105. 1
77.5
193.6
4.4
5. 5
105.8
78.7
194.6
4.4
6.5
104.4
84.5
199.8
4.4
5.2
105.2
66.1
201. 1
4.4
5.3
103.5
82.0
195.3
4.4
5.6
103.8
86.9
200.7
TOTAL
Metallurgical
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
187.5
280.2
505.6
551.4
157.2
344.7
578.6
421.6
161.3
283.3
629.5
424.6
157.2
342.8
551.3
466.0
163.5
282.5
585.7
485.4
157.2
320. 1
493. 1
552.4
175.6
316.9
492.6
555.6
1,524.6
1,506.0
1,498.7
1, 517.3
1,515.2
1,522.8
1, 522.9
-------
1990
SUPPLY PRICE
(S/10 Tons) (1978 $'s)
C.12
Preliminary Draft
Septeober 1, 1378
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.67 Lbs.
0.8 Ibs.
With
Central West
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.18
1.39
1.62
1.34
1.20
1.33
1.57
1.31
1.21
1.38
1.59
1.33
1. 19
1.37
1.58
1.29
1.21
1.39
1.61
1.34
1. 13
1.37
1.58
1.30
1. 18
1.37
1.58
1.29
Gulf
High Sulfur
Medim Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.59
0.59
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.78
0.7B
0.71
0.71
Rocky Mountain
High Sulfur
Mediun Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.06
1.22
1.25
1.09
1.16
1.21
1.11
1.17
1.22
1.09
1.22
1.25
1.10
1.22
1.25
1.07
1.24
1.26
1.08
1.22
1.25
Southwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOT A!.
0.82
0.78
0.79
0.82
0.73
0.76
0.82
0.73
0.76
0.79
0.73
0.75
0.79
0.73
0.75
0.75
0.72
0.72
0.83
0.78
0.79
Northwest
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.89
0.89
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.88
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3
5
m
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National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.76
1.03
1.09
1.07
1.13
0.98
0.76
1.06
1.09
1.03
0.77
1.07
1.13
0.99
0.76
1.06
.09
.05
0.77
1.07
1.12
1.04
0.73
1.05
1. 12
1.04
0.73
1.05
NOTE: Certain anomalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted)
associated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one demand
region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and where the relative volumes of these coals
change between scenarios. This c«n result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for example,
but the weighted average decreases because more lower priced coal and less higher priced coal is forecast.
-------
1990
SUPPLY PRI7E
(3/10 Tons) (1973 S's)
C. 12
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Scrtherr. Appala.hiar.
High Sulfur
Median Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTA1
Central Appalachian
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.2 Ibs.
1. 10
1.22
1.78
1.27
1. 19
1.41
1.76
1.71
0.2 Ibs.
With
1. 13
1.23
1.68
1.24
1.22
1.27
1.66
1.64
0.2 Ibs.
Without
1.10
1.29
1.70
1.28
1.20
1.44
1.68
1.64
0.5 Ibs.
With
1.13
1.23
1.69
1.24
1.21
1.38
1.67
1.62
0.5 Ibs.
Without
1. 10
1.29
1.72
1.28
1.20
1.43
1.69
1.66
0.67 Ibs.
With
1. 13
1.23
1.69
1.24
1.20
1.38
1.67
1.62
0.8 Ibs.
With
1. 13
1.23
1.69
1.24
1.20
1.37
1.67
1.62
Southern Appalachian
High Sulfur
Median Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Midwest
Righ Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.41
1.79
1.67
1.08
1.44
1.81
1. 19
1.38
1.68
1.61
1.13
1.41
1.71
1.20
1.44
1.70
1.64
1.74
1.47
1.08
1.20
1.38
1.69
1.62
1.13
1.41
1.73
1.20
1.43
1.72
1.64
1.08
1.40
1.75
1.20
1.38
1.69
1.62
1.12
1.40
1.72
1. 19
1.38
1.69
1.62
1.11
1 .40
1.72
1. 19
Eastern Sortherr. Great Plans
High Sulfur 0.42
Median Sulfur 0.42
Low Sulfur 0.50
TOTAL 0. 44
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.47
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.46
0.42
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33
m
o
Western Northern Great Plains
(Bituminous)
High sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.99
Low Sulfur 1.20
TOTAL 1.13
Western Northern Great Plains
(Sub Bituminous)
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur 0.41
Low Sulfur 0.53
TOTAL 0.50
1.01
1.14
1. 10
0.42
O.S3
0.49
1.02
1. 17
1.11
0.42
0.54
0.49
1.00
1.15
1.1"
0.40
0.54
0.49
0.99
1. 18
1. 12
0.40
0.53
0.49
0.99
1 .15
1. 10
0.42
0.53
0.51
1.00
1.15
1. 10
0.42
0.53
0.51
-------
1990
UTILITY COAL CONSUMPTION
(Quadrillion BTU's)
C.13
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
o
Tl
o
o
a
-o
§
3
New England
High Sulfur
Medina Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Middle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Bast South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
East
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
East North Central
High Sulfur
Mediun Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.2 Ibs.
0. 171
0.154
0.326
0.162
1.369
0.332
1.864
0.610
2.411
1.340
4.361
1. 123
0.527
1.200
2.850
2.066
4.461
2.872
9.399
1.254
1.612
1.354
4.221
0.368
0.706
0.959
2.033
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.386
1.426
0.052
1.864
1.477
2.644
0.252
4.373
1. 198
1. 158
1.512
2.868
3.261
5.236
0.816
9.313
1.505
1.762
1.050
4.317
0.385
0.896
0.569
1.850
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.201
0.008
0.5 Lbs.
With
0.200
0.008
0.209
0.257
1.515
0.067
1.840
0.598
3.394
0.377
4.370
0.920
1.380
0.547
2.846
2.976
6.297
0.991
9.264
1.367
1.914
1.045
4.325
0.395
0.903
0.545
1.844
0.208
0.398
1.414
0.052
1.864
1.499
2.634
0.241
4.374
1.218
1. 149
0.501
2.869
3.315
5.205
0.794
9.315
1.447
1.858
0.981
4.286
0.374
0.757
0.750
1.882
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.201
0.008
0.209
0.257
1.515
0.067
1.840
0.629
3.319
0.422
4.369
0.920
1.414
0.516
2.850
2.007
6.256
1.005
9.268
1.342
1.884
1.071
4.297
0.390
0.756
0.731
1.877
0.67 Ibs.
With
0.200
0.008
0.208
0.414
1.399
0.052
1.864
1.429
2.635
0.308
4.372
1.007
0.606
1.243
2.856
3.050
4.648
1.603
9.300
1.235
1.904
1.173
4.312
0.363
0.721
0.773
1.856
0.8 Ibs.
With
0.200
0.008
0.206
0.388
1.399
0.052
1.838
1.443
2.618
0.337
4.398
1.000
0.606
1.247
2.853
3.031
4.631
1.636
9.297
1. 166
1.888
1.257
4.311
0.364
0.723
0.769
1.856
-------
m
O
1990
rillTY COAL CONS'JMPTi:
(Quadrillion BTU's)
Preluair.ary Draft
September 1 , 1978
1.2 Ibs.
.i IDS.
With
0.2 i-bs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.67 Ibs.
With
.i Ibs.
With
2igh Sulfur
teiiua Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.562
2.318
2.313
6.254
1.390
2.658
1.619
6.167
1.762
2.317
1.590
6. 169
1.821
2.615
1.731
6. 168
1.732
2.64C
1.802
6. 174
1.598
2.625
1.946
6. 168
1.530
2.611
2.026
6. 167
West. Souv-. Central
Righ Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.299
1.813
3.212
0.038
2.067
0.865
2.971
2.108
0.867
2.975
0.010
1.673
1.5B8
3.271
1.479
1.792
3.270
1.350
1.914
3.264
1.404
1.850
3.254
tour, tain
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.810
1.372
2. 167
1.235
0.931
2.166
1.236
0.931
2.166
1. 110
1.057
2.166
1.110
1.057
2.166
0.833
1.325
2.158
0.982
1.198
2. 180
Pacific
aigh Sulfur
tedium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.063
0.215
0.279
0.076
0.221
0.297
0.076
0.221
0.297
0.063
0.225
0.288
0.063
0.225
0.288
0.063
0.219
0.282
0.063
0.218
0.281
REST OF WEST
aigh Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.873
1.587
2.460
1.312
1.152
2.464
1.312
1.152
2.464
1.173
1 .282
2.455
1. 173
1.282
2.455
1.896
1.544
2.377
1.045
1 .416
2.461
o
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o
o
a
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O
33
National
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
3.688
9.052
8.571
21.312
5. 190
11.274
4.452
20.916
3.739
12.534
4.600
20.873
5.147
10.667
5.396
21.210
3.739
11.546
5.880
21.165
4,647
9.521
7.006
21.174
4,561
19.691
6.928
2~1. 179
-------
C.14
Preliminary Draft
Septeaber 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs.
With
1990
DELIVERED COAL PRICES
(Quadrillion BTU's)
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Ibs.
With
O.S Ibs.
Without
0.67 Ibs.
With
.3 Ibs.
With
o
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o
o
3J
TJ
O
30
m
o
Northeast
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur-
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Kiddle Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
South Atlantic
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
Bast North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
East South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
West North Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
West South Central
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.44
1.58
_
1.50
1.35
1.56
2.15
1.65
1.38
1.72
2.12
1.79
1.27
1.62
1.78
1.57
1.29
1.65
1.64
1.50
1.21
1.03
1.19
1. 14
0.94
1.50
1.26
1.46
2.07
_
1.49
1.40
1.58
1.98
1.55
1.46
1.72
1.93
1.64
1.34
1.60
1.80
1.56
1.32
1.42
1.B6
1.46
1.25
0.99
1.20
1. 11
1.47
1. 13
1.43
1.22
1.45
2. 13
_
1.47
1.36
1.64
1.98
1.61
1.39
1.76
1.96
1.73
1.28
1.66
1.81
1.57
1.28
1.43
1.88
1.47
1.22
1.00
1.18
1. 16
.
1. 12
1.43
1.21
1.46
2.07
-
1.49
1.40
1.58
1.90
1.55
1.45
1.72
1.94
1.64
1.34
1.61
1.79
1.56
1.32
1.40
1.87
1.45
1.25
1.00
1.19
1. 13
1.43
1.10
1.48
1.28
1.44
2. 13
2.21
1.47
1.36
1.63
2.00
1.61
1.38
1.76
2.01
1.73
1.27
1.65
1.80
1.57
1.28
1.40
1.89
1.45
1.22
1.02
1.18
1. 12
_
1.09
1.48
1.30
1.47
2.07
-
1.49
1.40
1.58
2.03
1.55
1.44
1.72
1.98
1.64
1.32
1.61
1.76
1.56
1.31
1.60
1.64
1.52
1.24
1.01
1.20
1. 13
_
1.01
1.49
1.29
1.46
2.07
-
1.49
1.41
1.58
2.05
1.55
1.44
1.72
1.98
1.64
1.31
1.61
1.75
1.57
1.31
1.61
1.64
1.52
1.23
1.01
1.21
1. 14
_
1.01
1.47
1.27
-------
1990
DELIVERED COAL PRICES
(S/10 BTU) (1978 S'si
C. 14
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Ibs.
0.2 Ibs.
With
0.2 Ibs.
Without
0.5 Lbs.
With
0.5 Ibs.
Without
0.67 Lbs.
With
0.8 Ibs.
With
Mountain
High Sulfur
(tedium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
0.76
0.96
0.89
0.78
0.92
0.84
0.79
0.93
0.85
0.76
0.92
0.84
0.76
0.92
0.84
0.76
0.94
0.87
0.83
0.94
0.89
Pacific
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.04
1.14
1. 12
1.08
1.14
1. 12
1.08
1. 14
1. 12
1.03
1. 14
1. 12
1.03
1.14
1. 12
1.03
1 .14
1.12
1.03
1.14
1.12
National Total
High Sulfur
Medium Sulfur
Low Sulfur
TOTAL
1.30
1.41
1.56
1.45
1.37
1.38
1.45
1.39
1.30
1.43
1.4B
1.42
1.37
1.40
1.43
1.40
1.30
1.45
1.47
1.43
1.36
1.43
1.44
1.41
1.36
1.42
1.45
1.42
NOTE: Certain ancaalies in the behavior of prices are apparent. This is due to the averaging (consumption weighted)
associated with aggregating the 39 demand regions into nine larger regions, where expensive coal in one
demand region is averaged with less expensive coal in another region and where the relative volumes of these
coals change between scenarios. This can result in a situation where the price of each coal increases, for
example, but the weighted average decreases because more lower priced coal and less higher priced coal is
forecast.
o
o
O
3
TJ
O
3J
m
o
-------
o
o
o
3
-0
O
3
1990
USE OF WESTERN COAL UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STAN'DAK) OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
(10 TOSS)
C.15 - 1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Me^all ':;ical
Industrial
Metallurgical C.7
Resident iai/
Comnercial -
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
Hew
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 0.7
Bituxainous Sub-Bituminous Lignite Total
6.4 - - 6.4
- - - 0.7
0.1 - - 0.1
_
28.1 12.0 - 40.0
18.5 77.8 - 96.3
5.7 - 5.7
46.6 95.4 - 142.0
. - -
53.1 95.4 - 149.2
Metallurgical Bituminous
13.2
5.4 2.6
.0. 1
1.9
15.9
80.7
-
96.3
0.4 3.2
5.8 117.5
Sub-Bituminous
156.8
-
-
23. b
32.1
192.9
8.5
233.5
-
414. 1
Lignite Total
169.9
8.0
0.1
12.2 37.9
16.3 64.3
69.3 342.9
8.5
85.7 417.7
3.6
97.6 635.3
Total
176.3
8.7
0.3
37.9
104. 3
439. 1
14.2
557.6
3.6
7U4.4
m
o
-------
o
n
o
o
x
-o
O
3J
5
m
o
C. 15 - 2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
USE OF WESTERN COAL ONDEF
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. Si
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
Metallurgical Bituminous Sub-Bituminous
5.0
0.5
0.1
-
29.8 14.6
24.7 37.5
6.2
54.4 58.3
0.5 59.6 58.3
Lignite Total
5.0
0.5
0.1
-
4-4.3
62.2
6.2
112.7
_
118.4
He-_ailurgical Bituminous
13.9
5.1 2.6
0.1
1.6
20.2
58.8
78.9
0.4 3.0
5.5 100.3
S ub- B i t umi no us
156.8
-
-
23.8
30.8
191.0
9.0
230.8
-
411.4
Lignite Total
170.7
7.7
0.1
12.2 37.7
16.3 67.3
71.2 321.0
9.0
87.5 397.2
3.5
99.7 616.8
Total
175.7
8.2
0.3
37.7
111.6
383.2
15.2
510.0
3.5
735.2
-------
C.15 - 3
Preliminary Draft
September 1. 1978
1990
USE OP WESTERN COAL UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
0
n
7
O
o
00
TJ
0
3
Metallurgical
Industrial
Metallurgical 1.0
Residential/
Coovercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 1.0
<106 TONS)
Western Coal Coneuned in the East Western Coal Consumed in the Meet
Bituminous Sub- Bituni nous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous Sub-Bitiminous Liqnite Total Total
5.9 - - 5.9 - 13.9 156.8 - 170.6 176.4
0.1 - - 1.1 5.1 2.7 - - 7.7 8.8
0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 - - 0.1 0.3
- - - - 1.5 23.8 12.2 37.6 37.6
36.9 15.0 - 51.9 - 18.9 30.8 16.3 66.0 117.9
25.9 44.8 - 70.7 - 55.7 196.3 71.2 323.1 393.8
5.2 - 5.2 - - 9.1 - 9.1 14.3
62.9 65.0 - 127.8 - 74.6 236.1 87.5 398.2 526.1
0.4 3.0 - - 3.5 3.5
69.0 65.0 - 135.0 5.5 95.8 416.7 99 .*7 617.7 752.6
-------
o
Tl
o
o
3
TJ
O
OJ
C. 15 - 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
1990
USE OF WESTERS COAL UNDEF.
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO2/M1BTU
FLOOR WITH EXIXFTIOSS
( 106 TONS)
Western Coal Consumed in the East Western Coal Consumed in the
Bivsino.js Sub-Bituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous Sub-Bituminous
5.8 - - 5.8 - 17.7 181.7
4.4 2.7
o.i 0.1 - «'
4.8 37.9
28.0 11.1 - 39.1 - «.6 '4.5
18.9 59.0 - 77.8 - .2 324-«
10 4 - 10-4 - "
46.9 80.5 - 127.3 - 85.8 368.5
0.5 3.1
52.7 80.5 - 133.2 4.8 114.2 588.1
West
Lignite Total
199.4
7. 1
0.1
12.2 55.0
5.3 55.4
76.3 471.0
9.4
81.6 535.9
3.6
93.8 801 .0
Total
205.3
7.1
0. 1
55.0
94.5
548.8
19.8
663 . 2
3.6
934.2
-------
C.15 - 5
y Draft.
September 1, 1978
1990
USE OF WESTERN COAL DMDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS. SO /MMBTU
FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
Western Coal Consumed in the East
Western Coal Consumed in the West
o
-n
z
o
O
3
o
O
3
Metallurgical
Industrial -
Metallurgical 1.0
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 1.0
Bituminous Sub-Bituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous Sub-Bituminous Lignite Total
5.5 - - 5.5 - 13.2 156.8 - 169.
- - - 1.0 5.1 2.7 - 7.
0.1 - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - 0.
- - - - 1.8 23.8 12.2 37.
35.1 15.0 - 50.1 - 18.8 30.3 16.3 65.
23.2 54.4 - 77.6 - 67.2 198.1 73.6 338.
5.6 - 5.6 - - 9.2 - 9.
56.3 75.0 - 133.3 - 86.0 237.6 89.9 413.
- - - 0.4 3.0 - - 3.
64.0 75.0 - 139.9 5.5 106.7 418.2 102.1 632.
6
7
1
8
4
9
2
4
4
5
Total
175.5
8.7
0.3
37.8
115.5
416.4
14.8
546.7
3.4
772.4
-------
o
Tl
z
o
o
a
-o
O
3J
C. 15 - '.
Preliminary Dra:
September 1, 197
1990
USE OP WESTERS COAL UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS. SO /MMBTO
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
(10 TONS)
Western Coal Consumed in the West
Industrial
Metallurgical
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total
Metallurgical Bituninous Sub-Bituminous
5.2
0.5
0.1
.
35.8 13.9
15.5 69.2
6.2
51.3 89.3
0.5 56.7 89 . 3
Lignite Total
5.2
0.
0.
-
49.
84.
6.
140.
_ _
146.
5
1
8
7
?
7
5
Metallurgical Bituminous
13
5.1 2
0
2
18
66
84
0.4 3
5.5 105
.6
.7
.1
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.6
Sub-Bituminous . Lignite Totai
156
-
-
23
32
199
9
240
-
421
.8
-
-
.8 12.2
.1 16.3
.1 71.8
.4
.7 88 . 1
-
.2 100.4
170
7
0
36
66
336
9
412
3
632
.3
.7
. 1
.2
.9
.9
.4
.9
.5
t -t
Total
175.5
8
0
38
116
421
15
553
3
779
.2
.3
.2
.2
.6
.6
.b
_^5
. 1
m
o
-------
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
USE OF WESTERN COAL UNDER
ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OP 0.8 LBS. SO
FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
o
-n
z
o
§
-o
0
3D
m
o
Metallurgical
Industrial
Metallurgical 0.5
Residential/
Commercial
Synthetics
Utilities
Existing
New
Conversions
Total
Export
Total 0.5
<106 TONS)
Western Coal Consumed in the East Western Coal Consumed in the West
Bituminous Sub- Bituminous Lignite Total Metallurgical Bituminous Sub-Bituminous Lignite Total Total
6.1 - 6.1 - 13.6 156.8 - 170.3 176.4
- - 0.5 5.1 2.6 - - 7.7 8.1
0.1 - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - 0.1 0.3
- - - - - 1.8 23.8 12.2 37.9 37.9
34.4 13.9 - 49.3 - 16.7 32.1 16.3 65.1 114.4
15.7 74.1 - 89.8 - 72.6 192.8 71.8 337.3 427.1
6.2 6.2 - - 9.4 - 9.4 15.6
51.1 94.3 - 145.4 - 89.3 234.4 88.1 411.8 557.2
0.4 3.0 - - 3.5 3.5
57.3 94.3 - 142.1 5.5 110.5 415.0 100.4 631.3 783.3
-------
m
O
1990
WESTERN COM. CONSUMED IN THE EAST
1.2 LBS.
Prel i-inary Draft
September 1, 1978
Central <«est
Oulf
Eastern Northern Great Plair.s
Western Northern Great Plair.s
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
2.CJ
78.77 70.40
2.03
59.27 68.37 127.64
19.50 - 19.50
149.17
0.2 Ibs WITH
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
33.5
22.4
55.9
1.4
61. 1
62.5
1.4
94.6
22.4
118.4
0.2 IBS. WITHOUT
Central West
Gulf
Easterr. Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
39.6
22.6
62.2
3.0
69.7
72.7
3.0
109.3
22.6
134.9
0.5 LBS. WITH
o
Tl
o
i
-o
O
3)
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
36.2
18.7
54.9
1.4
60. B
62.2
1.4
97.0
18.7
117. 1
-------
1990
WESTERN COAL CONSUMED IN THE EAST
(10 TONS)
0.5 LBS. WITHOUT
C. 16
Preliminary I^raft
September 1, 197£
Central West
Gulf
Eastern northern Great Plains
"Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
46. 4
18.4
64.8
2.6
72.5
75. 1
2.6
118.9
18.4
139.9
0.57 LBS. WITH
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
52.5
18.0
70.5
1.4
74.6
76.0
1.4
127. 1
18.0
146.5
0.8 LBS. WITH
Central West
Gulf
Eastern Northern Great Plains
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies
Southwest
Northwest
TOTAL
57.3
18.6
75.9
1.4
74.8
76.2
1.4
132.1
18.6
152. 1
o
Tl
o
O
30
O
O
3J
m
O
-------
o
Tl
o
o
a
-o
O
30
m
O
1990
GENERATION CAPACITY
(AND AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR)
GW (»)
(Using 1978 S's)
C. 17
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1. 2 Lbs.
0.2 Lbs. With
0.2 Lbs. Without
0.5 Lbs. With
0.5 Lbs. Without
0.67 Lbs. With
0.8 Lb.s With
NATIONAL
Kuclear
Coal**
Existing
MS PS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas**
Steam
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Rvdro and Others
Total
Percent of Total
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/Gas
Other
167.3 (66.9)
451.0 (55.1)
197.9 (55.8)
81.5 (56.2)
171.6 (53.9)
165.4 (14.9)
105.5
4.8
55.1
87.8 (44.0)
871 .5 (48.4)
19
52
19
10
167.3
427.7
197
83
146
188.5
123
4
60
87.8
871.3
19
49
22
10
(66.9)
(56.4)
.9 (56.9)
.1 (58.0)
.7 (54.9)
(17.0)
.2
.8
.6
(44.0)
(48.4)
167.3 (66.9)
425.5 (56.6)
197.9 (58.3)
83.1 (60.9)
144.4 (51.8)
190.7 (17.1)
123.9
4.8
62.1
87.8 (44.0)
871.2 (48.4)
19
49
22
10
167.3 (66.9)
439.0 (55.8)
197.9 (56.9)
83.1 (57.8)
158.0 (53.4)
177.3 (16.0)
122.1
4.8
60.4
87.8 (44.0)
871.4 (48.4)
19
50
20
10
167.3
437.0
197.
83.
156.
179.3
112.
4.
61.
87.8
871.4
19
50
21
10
(66.9
(55.9)
9 (57.9)
1 (61.0)
0 (50.8)
(16.2)
7
8
8
(44.0)
(48.4)
167.3
439.5
197.
83.
158.
176.6
111 .
4.
60.
87.3
871.2
19
50
20
10
(66.9)
(55.8)
9 (56.8)
1 (56.4)
5 (54.2)
(16.0)
6
8
3
(44.0)
167.3
440.8
197.
83.
159.
175.4
110.
£ ^
60.
87.8
871.3
19
c i
j i
20
10
(66.9)
(55.7)
9 (56.6)
1 (56.5)
8 (54.1)
(15.9)
4
Q
3
(44.0)
-------
1990
UTILITY CAPTIAL COSTS
(10 S's)
(1978 S'S)
C. 18
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Lbs.
0.2 Lbs. With
0.2 Lba. Without
0.5 Lbs. With
0.5 Lbs. Without
o
Tl
2
O
§
TJ
O
DO
National
New Generation Capacity
Nuclear
Coal (MM)
RSPS
AHSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbine (M<)
Long Distance Transmission
Local Transmission and
Distribution
Scrubbers (MH)
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
311.9
132.6 (130. 1)
168.9 (253. 1)
54.2 (81.5)
114.8 (171.6)
10.4 (40.1)
0.9 (2. 1)
9.5 (38.0)
6.9
176.2
10.2 (126.1)
3.1 (40.2)
3.8 (44.2)
3.3 (4).7)
0.3
505.5
1,019.2
295.5
132.6 (130.1)
152.3 (209.8)
55.2 (83.1)
97.1 (146.7)
10.6 (41.2)
0.9 (2. 1)
9.8 (39.1)
6.5
176.1
24.4 (209.3)
2.3 (33.8)
19.8 (146.7)
2.3 (28.8)
0.3
294.9
132.6 (130.1)
151.3 (227.5)
55.2 (83.1)
96.1 (144.4)
11.0 (42.5)
0.9 (2.1)
10.1 (40.4)
6.4 (240.0)
176.1
24.2 (211.7)
2.4 (33.S)
19.2 (144.4)
2.7 (33.8)
0.3
665.0
669.0
667.3
428.6
250.0
259.4
77. 1
86.0
79. 1
80.9
502.8
1.019.2
664.3
661.9
662.8
428.6
250.6
257.3
68.0
135.0
79.9
116.6
502.0
1,019.2
303.4
132.6 (130.1)
160.1 (241.1)
55.3 (83.1)
104.7 (158.0)
10.7 (41.3)
0.9 (2.1)
9.8 (39.2)
6.6
176. 1
23.6 (223.3)
2.3 (34.8)
18.9 (153.0)
2.4 (35.0)
0.4
664.3
665.5
665.0
428.6
250.0
258.8
71.6
133.0
79.9
114.3
510. 1
302.8
132.6 (130.1)
159.3 (239.1)
55.3 (83.0)
103.9 (156.0)
10.9 (42.2)
0.9 (2.1)
10.1 (40.3)
6.5
176. 1
23. 1
2.6 (223.4)
17.9 (156.0)
2.6 (32.8)
1,019.2
0.3
508.8
1,019.2
665.5
662.7
664.0
428.6
250.6
259. 1
66. 1
119.6
78.7
105.7
665.6
666.0
666.2
428.6
250.6
257.7
75. 1
114.7
79.3
103.4
m
o
-------
Prel L3i.-.ar
September
Irafc
, 1573
1990 - cont'd.
LI7Y CAPTIAL COSTS
'1C S's)
(1978 S's)
;.6 Lbs. With
0.8 Lbs. With
Sew Generation Capacity
Nuclear
Coal (MW)
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbine (MW)
Long Distance Transmissior.
locai Transnission and
D i R ' r j bvi t- i o n
Scrubbers (MW)
NSPS
WiSPS
Retrofit
Conversion to Western Coal
Total
304.4
132.6 ( 130.1)
168.3 (241.6)
55.2 (83.1)
106.1 (158.5)
305.2
132.6 ( 130. 1j
162.1 (242.9)
55.2 (83.1)
106.9 (159.8)
10.5 (40.6)
0.9 (2.1)
9.6 (38.5)
6.6
176. 1
19.3 (225.3)
2.4 (37.7)
14.7 (158.5)
2.4 (29.1)
0.4
10.5 (40.6)
0.9 (2. 1)
9.6 (38.5)
6.6
176. 1
18.5 (225.4)
2.4 (36.5)
13.7 (59.8)
2.4 (29.1)
0.4
506.8
506.8
o
Tl
o
o
3
TJ
O
DO
Average Plant Cost
Nuclear
Coal
NSPS
ANSPS
Total
Oil/Gas
Combined Cycle
Turbines
Total
Average Scrubber Cost
NSPS
ANSPS
Retrofit
Total
1,019.2
1,019.2
664.3
669.4
667.6
428.6
249.4
258.6
63.7
91.5
82.5
85.7
664.3
669.0
667.4
428.6
249.4
258.6
65.8
85.7
82.4
82.1
m
O
-------
C.19
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
GENERATION CAPACITY
GW (»)
(Using 1978 S's)
O
Tl
o
o
3>
TJ
O
3J
Hew England
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
US PS
AHSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
HSPS
AHSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
MS PS
AHSPS
Kiddle Atlantic
Capacity Fully scrubbed
Existing
KSPS
AHSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing*
HSPS
AHSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Be is ting
HSPS
ANSPS
South Atlantic
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
1 .1 LJ5S.
3.315 (79.8)
3.623 (66.2)
3.315 (79.8)
3.623 (66.2)
2.245 (90.0)
_
4.953 (34.6)
3.007 (46.9)
5.001 (63.6)
3.007 (46.9)
5.001 (63.6)
2.555 (90.0)
-
14.143 (48.4)
2.000 (59.6)
7.544 (44.6)
16.698 (54.8)
2.000 (59.6)
7.544 (44.6)
U nf. UO9. Wit"! '
3.315 (79.8)
-
3.315 (79.8)
-
2.245 (90.0)
14.256 (90.0)
5.333 (34.1)
2.427 (40.5)
-
7.578 (50.7)
2.427 (40.5)
14.256 (90.0)
2.553 (90.0)
35.942 (90.0)
6.570 (46.3)
2.127 (52.5)
9.123 (58.5)
2.127 (52.5)
39.942 (90.0)
\J f. 1*UO * tlivrw-v.
3.314 (79.9)
-
3.314 (79.9)
-
2.245 (90.0)
13.667 (90.0)
5.592 (34.0)
2.427 (41.0)
-
7.837 (50.0)
2.427 (41.0)
13.667 (90.0)
2.553 (90.0)
35.787 (90.0)
4.805 (44.8)
2.041 (59.9)
7.358 (60.5)
2.041 (59.9)
35.787 (90.0)
3.315 (79.8)
-
3.315 (79.8)
2.245 (90.0)
14.262 (90.0)
5.328 (34.1)
2.427 (40.5)
2.427 (40.5)
14.262 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
39.941 (90.0)
6.943 (46.5)
2.127 (52.5)
9.498 (58.2)
2.127 (52.5)
39.941 (90.0)
3.315 (79.9)
-
3.314 (79.9)
""
2.245 (90.0)
13.667 (90.0)
5.593 (34.0)
2.427 (41.0)
7.838 (50.0)
2.427 (41.0)
13.667 (90.0)
2.553 (90.0)
33.576 (90.0)
4.804 (44.8)
2.041 (59.9)
2.211 (60.2)
7.357 (60.5)
2.041 (59.9)
35.787 (88.2)
3.315 (79.8)
-
3.315 (79.8)
"
2.245 (90.0)
14.265 (90.0)
5.445 (34.1)
2.427 (40.5)
7.690 (50.4)
2.427 (40.5)
14.265 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
33.917 (90.0)
7.335 (46.7)
2.127 (52.5)
2.029 (44.7)
9.890 (57.9)
2.127 (52.5)
35.946 (87.4)
3.315 (79.8)
-
3.315 (79.8)
2.245 (90.0)
13.824 (90.0)
5.445 (34.1)
2.427 (40.5)
7.690 (50.4)
2.427 (40.5)
13.824 (90.0)
2.555 (90.0)
33.784 (90.0)
7.504 (46.8)
1.931 (51.3)
2-624 (32.9)
10.059 (57.8)
1.931 (51.3)
36.408 (85.9)
m
O
-------
C. 19
Seprtexier 1, 1573
1.2 Lbs.
1990
SCRUBBED CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO RJUCVEL ' Cr. Ar.r.ual Ba S. s)
OK (%)
(Using 1978 S's)
0.2 Lbs. With 0.2 Lbs. Without 0.5 Lbs. With 0.5 Lbs. Without
C.67 Lbs. With C.8 Lb.s With
o
n
z
0
o
a
-o
O
a
m
o
East South Central
Capacity Puily Scr^ibe-i
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
EAST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially ScrubbtJ
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
East North Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
-
3.410 (40.9)
6. 170 (60.4)
4.770 (57.6)
3.410 (40.9)
6. 170 (60.4)
4.770 (57.6)
4.800 (90.0)
-
-
25.821 (43.8)
11.247 (56.6)
20.938 (55.8)
30.621 (55.3)
11.247 (56.6)
20.938 (55.8)
-
.
-
5.747 (49.2)
8.593 (39.5)
0.077 (76.0)
5.747 (49.2)
8.593 (39.5)
0.077 (76.0)
23.
3.
3.
23.
4.
73.
15.
7.
20.
7.
73.
11.
3.
6.
3.
424
081
-
.
081
424
798
622
218
635
-
016
635
622
-
-
022
,488
,677
-
,488
6.677
1 1.022
(90.0)
(40.7)
(40.7)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(49.3)
(43.9)
(59. 1)
(43.9)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(42.2)
(27.7)
(42.2)
(27.7)
(87.5)
22.371 (90.0)
4.583 (39.0)
2.794 (43.6)
-
4.583 (39.0)
2.794 (43.6)
22.371 (90.0)
4.798 (90.0)
71.825 (90.0)
18.294 (46.4)
7.262 (47. 1)
-
23.092 (55.5)
7.262 (47. 1)
71.825 (90.0)
-
10.796 (90.0)
5.456 (49.4)
6.649 (39.9)
-
5.456 (49.4)
6.649 (39.9)
10.796 (90.0)
23.425 (90.0)
3.081 (40.7)
-
-
3.081 (40.7)
23.425 (90.0)
4.800 (90.0)
~
77.628 (90.0)
15.640 (49.2)
7.635 (43.9)
-
20.440 (58.8)
7.635 (43.9)
77.628 (90.0)
~
9.590 (90.0)
4.685 (45.6)
7.481 (27.7)
0.880 .(60.2)
4.865 (35.6)
7.481 (27.7)
10.470 (87.5)
22. 199 (90. 0)
4.583 (39.0)
2.794 (43.6)
0. 173 (60.2)
4.583 (39.0)
2.794 (43.6)
22.372 (89.8)
4.798 (90.0)
~
74.240 (90.0)
18.294 (46.4)
7.262 (47.3)
2.384 (60.2)
23.092 (55.5)
7.262 (47.3)
76.624 (89. 1)
"
"
8.215 (90.0)
4.456 (53. 1)
7.516 (42.6)
2.063 (60.2)
4.456 (53.1)
7.516 (42.6)
10.278 (84.0)
3.135 (90.0)
0.097 (50.3)
3.081 (40.7)
15.2CO I'M. 9)
0.097 (50.3)
3.081 (40.7)
23.424 (60.6)
4.800 (90.0)
56.317 (90.0)
16.192 (49.3)
7.455 (45.0)
17.318 (44.9)
20.992 (58.6)
7.455 (45.0)
73.635 (79.4)
~
5.468 (90.0)
2.809 (49.5)
9.570 (27.7)
5.375 (44.7)
2.809 (49.5)
9.570 (27.7)
10.843 (67.5)
8.135 (90.
3.081 (4C.
15.289 (33.
-
3.081 (40.
23.424 (52.
4.800 (90.
55.743 (90.
16.264 (51.
7.439 (43.
17.913 (33.
21.064 <6C,
7.439 (43
73.656 (76
4.218 (90
2.773 (49
9.417 (27
6.668 (32
2.773 (49
9.417 (27
10.886 (55
,.,
7;
1)
7)
9)
0)
0)
4J
.5)
. D
5 ;
.2)
.0)
. D
. 7 )
.9)
. 1)
.7)
. 0 )
-------
C.19
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 Lbs.
1990
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO RH4OVED (Or. Annual Basis)
OW (%)
(Using 1978 $'s)
0.2 Lbs. With 0.2 Lbs. Without 0.5 Lbs. With 0.5 Lbs. Without 0.67 Lbs. With 0.8 Lb.s With
o
o
o
31
s
3
55
m
o
West Sooth Central
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
SSPS
ANS PS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
MS PS
AHSPS
MIDWEST
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
existing
NSPS
AHSPS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
East North Central
-
-
0.586 (33.2)
5.470 (27.7)
0.586 (33.2)
5.470 (27.7)
-
:
6.333 (47.7)
14.063 (34.9)
0.077 (76.0)
6.333 (47.7)
14.063 (34.9)
0.077 (76.0)
-
7.393 (90.0)
0.585 (33.2
5.001 (27.7)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.393 (90.0)
~
18.415 (90.0)
4.073 (40.8)
11.678 (27.7)
4.073 (40.8)
11.678 (27.7)
18.415 (90.0)
-
7.193 (90.0)
0.586 (33.2)
5.206 (27.7)
0.586 (33.2)
5.206 (27.7)
7.193 (90.0)
~
17.989 (90.0)
6.042 (47.8)
11.805 (34.7)
6.042 (47.8)
11.805 (34.7)
17.989 (90.0)
-
0.878 (90.0)
0.585 (33.2
5.001 (27.7)
7.283 (60.2)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
8.161 (63.4)
10.468 (90.0)
5.450 (35.3)
12.482 (27.7)
8.163 (60.2)
5.450 (35.3)
12.482 (27.7)
18.631 (76.9)
-
0.615 (90.0)
0.586 (33.2)
5.339 (27.7)
7.437 (60.2)
0.586 (33.2)
5.339 (27.7)
8.052 (62.5)
8.830 (90.0)
S.042 (50.8)
12.885 (36.4)
9.500 (60.2)
5.042 (50.8)
12.855 (36.4)
18.330 (74.6)
-
-
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.898 (45.2)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.898 (45.2)
5.468 (90.0)
3.394 (46.7)
14.571 (27.7)
13.273 (45.0)
3.394 (46.7)
14.571 (27.7)
18.741 (58.1)
-
-
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.902 (33.6)
0.585 (33.2)
5.001 (27.7)
7.902 (33.6)
_
_
4.218 (90.0)
3.358 (46.3)
14.418 (27.7)
14.570 (33.3)
3.358 (46.3)
14.418 (27.7)
18.788 (46.0)
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
Capacity Partially Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
NSPS
ANS PS
33.239 (90.0) 33.192 (90.0) 23.761 (90.0) 19.934 (90.0) 15.416 (90.0) 8.539 (90.0)
1. 110 (64. 1)
5.641 (60.6)
16.800 (45.0)
1. 110 (64. 1)
5.641 (60.6)
16.800 (45.0)
1.109
5. 125
1. 109
5. 125
33.239
(64. 1)
(63.9)
(64. 1)
(63.9)
(90.0)
1.109
5.095
1. 109
5.095
33.192
(64.1)
(64.1)
(64. 1)
(64. 1)
(90.0)
1.109
5.253
20.354
1.109
5.253
44. 115
(64.1)
(64.1)
(60.2)
(64. 1)
(64. 1)
(76.3)
1.109
5.095
24.255
1. 109
5.095
44. 189
(64. 1)
(64. 1)
(60.2)
(64. 1)
(61.4)
(73.6)
1. 109
5.645
29.013
1. 109
5.645
44.429
(64. 1)
(60.6)
(45.9)
(64.1)
(60.6)
(61.2)
1. 110 (64. 1)
5.253 (64.1)
35.890 (44.0)
1.110 (64.1)
5.253 (64.1)
44.429 (52.8)
-------
C. 19
o
8
30
TJ
O
DO
1.2 Lbs.
Prelimir.ary Z~*
September 1, '?
199C
SCP.VSBEF. CAPACITY AND PERCENT OF SO REMOVED (On Annual Basis)
OK (*)
(Using 1978 S's)
3.2 Lbs. With
(59.9)
(28.4)
(56.9)
(61.7)
(54.0)
(54.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(28.4)
(42.5)
(60.4)
(28.4)
(56.9)
(61.8)
-
2.829
17.500
3.579
6.490
-
3.579
9.319
17.500
. -
-
3.927
-
-
-
-
-
3.927
-
2.829
21.427
3.579
6.490
-
3.579
9.319
21.427
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(27.7)
(54.3)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.8)
(27.7)
(54.3)
(90.0)
-
2.829
17.499
3.579
6.490
-
3.579
9.319
17.499
-
.
3.927
-
-
-
3.927
-
2.829
21.426
3.579
6.490
-
3.579
9.319
21.426
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(27.7)
(54.4)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(27.7)
(54.4)
(90.0)
-
2.829
10.382
3.579
6.490
7.382
3.579
9.319
17.764
-
-
0.762
-
0.100
3.104
-
0.100
3.866
-
2.829
11.144
3.579
6.590
10.486
3.579
9.419
21.630
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.9)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(54.4)
(77.6)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(66. 1)
(90.0)
(90.0)
(27.7)
(38.7)
(60.2)
(27.7)
(54. 1)
(75.6)
-
2.829 190. CI
10.382 00.0,
3.579 (27.7,
6.490 (3S.5;
7.382 (60.2!
3.579 (27.7)
9.319 (54.1)
17.764 (77.6)
-
_
0.762 (90.0)
-
0.100 (27.7)
3.104 (60.2)
-
0.100 (27.7)
3.866 (66. 1)
-
2.829 (90.0)
11. 144 (90.0)
3.579 (2V. 7)
6.590 (38.0)
10.486 (60.2)
3.579 (27.7)
9.419 (53.8)
21.630 (76.6)
-
2.829 (90.0)
3.853 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.487 (42.4)
14.065 (47.8)
3.587 (27.7)
9.316 (56.9)
17.918 (56.9)
-
_
0.379 (90.0)
-
0.500 (27.7)
3.419 (47.1)
-
0.500 (27.7)
3.798 (51.4)
-
2.829 (90.0)
4.232 (90.0)
3.587 (27.7)
6.987 (41.3)
17.484 (47.7)
3.587 (27.7)
9.816 (55.3)
21.716 (55.9)
-
2.829 (90.:
2. 537- (90. C
3.583 (27.7
6.489 (42.5
16.452 (47.9
3.583 (27.7)
9.318 (56.9;
18.989 (53.5;
-
_
0.493 (90. C)
-
0.100 (27.7)
3.468 (37.7)
-.
0.100 (27.7!
3.961 (44.2)
-
2.829 (90.0!
3.303 o:.c;
3.583 (27.7)
6.589 (42.3!
19.920 (46. 1;
3.583 (27.7;
9.418 (56.60
22.950 (51.9)
m
o
-------
1990
SCRUBBER CAPACITY AJJD PERCENT OF SO RB1OVED (On Annual Basis)
OH (%)
C. 19
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1.2 LbE.
(Using 1978 $'s)
0.2 Lbs. With 0.2 Lbs. Without 0.5 Lbs. With 0.5 Lbs. Without 0.67 Lbs. With 0.8 Lb.s With
HATIOMAL
Capacity Fully Scrubbed
Existing
BS PS
AHSPS
Capacity fcrtially Scrubbed
Be isting
RSPS
AKSPS
Total Capacity Scrubbed
Existing
8SPS
AHSPS
4.800 (90.0) 4.798 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0) 2.829 (90.0)
0.329 (90.0) 146.703 (90.0)
36.944 (47.0)
37.432 (46.6)
43.884 (52. 1)
23.979 (45.4)
30.927 (40.0)
41.744 (52.0) 28.777 (52.8)
40.261 (49.6) 33.756 (44.2)
44.213 (52.4) 146.703 (90.0)
4.789 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
144.432 (90.0)
29.022 (45. 1)
30.701 (43.4)
33.811 (51.5)
33.530 (47.3)
144.432 (90.0)
4.800 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
119.002 (90.0)
25.723 (44.0)
31.960 (39.8)
39.003 (60.2)
30.523 (51.2)
34.789 (43.9)
158.005 (82.6)
4.789 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
109.350 (90.0)
28.023 (45.5)
31.802 (43.7)
46.624 (60.2)
32.812 (52.0)
34.631 (47.5)
155.974 (81.1)
4.800 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
81.434 (9O.O)
24.282 (46.4)
34.838 (39.3)
77.088 (45.9)
29.082 (53.6)
37.667 (43.1)
158.522 (68.6)
4.800 (90.0)
2.829 (90.0)
71.531 (90.0)
24.314 (46.4)
33.699 (39.7)
88.293 (40.5)
29.114 (53.6)
36.528 (43.6)
159.824 (62.7)
o
z
o
o
00
o
o
3)
m
O
-------
C.20- 1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
SO Emissions
{10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
108.7
109.7
46.5
0.143
264.9
1.520
1.198
0.854
1.218
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,478.5
105.9
344.8
297.0
2,226.2
3,107.6
183.2
944.6
254.9
4,490.2
1.112
0.176
0.575
0.694
2.557
2.481
0.305
1.574
0.427
4.787
2.660
1.204
1.200
0.856
1.742
2.506
1.202
1.200
1.194
1.876
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,229.8
NSPS 239.9
ANSPS 681.5
Oil/Gas Plants 52.6
Total 3,203.8
3.394
1.200
1.200
0.966
2.166
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,924.6
529.0
2,080.6
651.0
10,185.2
5.050
0.881
3.468
1.339
10.738
2.742
1.200
1.200
0.972
1.898
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
OF 1.2 LBS.
SO Emissions
( 1 0 Tons )
4,612.8
410.2
279.8
50.9
5,353.8
1,779.9
322.8
275.6
33.4
2,411.8
6,392.7
733.0
555.4
84.3
7,765.4
150.6
687.3
1,160.6
247.1
2,245.6
334.0
165.4
500.0
9.1
SO /MMBTU
Quads Consumed
2.927
0.694
0.600
0.169
4.390
0.845
0.624
0.565
0.109
2.143
3.772
1.318
1.165
0.278
6.533
0.133
1.145
1.934
0.548
3.760
0.617
0.523
1.027
0.053
Emissions
(Lbs.
Million Stu)
SO /
1,008.6
2.220
3.152
1.182
0.932
0.602
2.440
4.212
1.034
0.976
0.612
2.250
3.390
1.112
0.954
0.606
2.378
2.264
1.200
1.200
0.902
1.194
1.082
0.632
0.974
0.344
0.908
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20- 1
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER CURRENT STANDARD
OF 1.2 LBS. SO /MMBTU
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
16.4
89.2
93.3
237.2
0.031
0.029
0.219
0.409
0.688
2.470
1.132
0.814
0.456
0.690
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
372.3
181.8
589.2
102.4
1,245.7
0.648
'0.552
1.246
0.462
2.908
1.150
0.658
0.946
0.444
0.856
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
13,804.2
2,131.0
4,385.9
1,084.8
21,442.0
9.602
3.897
7.813
2.628
23.940
2.876
1.094
1.122
0.826
1.792
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
C.20 - 2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
(10 Tone)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Stu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
14.8
108.3
252.0
0.208
0.240
0.448
1.382
0.902
1.126
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,468.7
72.4
130.8
297.6
1,969.4
1.058
0.121
0.685
0.696
2.560
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
3,111.1
190.5
347.7
303.0
3,952.3
2.431
0.317
1.624
0.502
4.874
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,246.0
NSPS 253.0
ANSPS 229.2
Oil/Gas Plants 53.2
Total 2,781.4
3.324
1.200
0.546
0.958
1.866
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,969.6
515.9
707.7
762.1
8,955.3
2.762
1.200
0.416
0.984
1.648
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
S02/MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
4,652.5
455.1
129.4
80.3
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
5,317.4
1,813.3
403.1
39.0
38.1
2,293.5
6,465.8
858.2
168.4
118.4
7,610.9
150.6
700.5
239.4
404.6
1,495.0
358.2
172.8
95.1
20.6
646.6
3.905
1.464
0.798
0.388
6.555
0.133
1.167
1.671
0.885
3.856
0.670
0.543
0.954
0.084
2.251
4.198
1.144
0.278
0.636
2.328
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 2
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
110 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
12.2
11.8
96.2
158.5
2.470
0.842
0. 100
0.458
0.442
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
396.5
185.0
106.9
116.8
805.2
0.701
0.572
1.191
0.504
2.968
1.132
0.646
0.180
0.464
0.542
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
13,982.4
2,259.5
1,222.4
1,401.8
18,866.1
9.787
4.063
7.065
3.327
24.242
2.858
0.982
0.346
0.842
1.556
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
148.2
108.2
256.4
0.209
0.204
0.413
1.418
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,469.9
79.1
108.4
305.6
1.962.6
2.776
1.198
0.334
0.858
1.538
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
3,118.6
264.6
241.9
310.7
3,935.7
2.480
0.441
1.448
0.518
4.887
2.516
1.200
0.334
1.200
1.610
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,288.9
NSPS 265.4
ANSPS 164.8
Oil/Gas Plants 56.2
Total 2,775.4
1.414
0.442
0.991
0.128
2.975
3.238
1.200
0.332
0.878
1.866
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,025.1
609.1
515.1
780.7
8,930.0
5.162
1.015
3.088
1.563
10.828
2.722
1.200
0.334
0.998
1.650
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20- 3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Stu)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,781.1
NSPS 472.1
ANSPS 64.2
Oil/Gas Plants 82.5
Total 5,400.0
3.036
1.194
0.334
0.600
2.346
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,827.3
NSPS 401.7
ANSPS 37.0
Oil/Gas Plants 39.5
Total 2,305.6
0.866
0.703
0.276
0.124
1.969
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,608.4
873.8
101.2
122.0
7,705.4
4.016
1.494
0.661
0.399
6.570
3.292
1.170
0.306
0.612
2.346
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
700.5
238.3
406.3
1,495.6
0.133
1.167
1.675
0.888
3.863
2.264
1.200
0.284
0.916
0.774
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
358.2
172.8
95.1
20.6
646.6
0.670
0.543
0.953
0.084
2.250
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 3
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.2 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
36.3
12.2
11.8
96.2
158.5
2.470
0.842
0.100
0.458
0.442
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
396.5
188.0
106.9
116.8
805.1
0.701
0.572
1.190
0.504
2.967
1.132
0.658
0.180
0.464
0.542
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
14,180.7
2,368.3
961.5
1,425.8
18,936.4
2.834
1.116
0.290
0.840
1.560
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20- 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
143.8
108.2
252.0
0.208
0.204
0.448
1.382
0.902
1.126
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,468.7
72.4
131.9
297.6
1,970.5
1.058
0.121
0.685
0.696
2.560
2.776
1.196
0.386
0.856
1.540
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
3,111.3
184.2
351.4
303.0
3,949.9
2.431
0.307
1.635
0.502
4.875
2.560
1.200
0.430
1.208
1.620
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,243.3
NSPS 246.8
ANSPS 231.9
Oil/Gas Plants 53.2
Total 2,775.3
1.351
0.411
1.107
0.111
2.980
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,967. 1
503.4
715.2
762.0
8,947.7
5.048
0.839
3.427
1.549
10.863
2.760
1.200
0.418
0.984
1.648
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,712.9
NSPS 447.5
ANSPS 121.8
Oil/Gas Plants 80.3
Total 5,362.2
3.041
0.746
0.499
0.268
4.554
3.100
1.200
0.488
0.600
2.354
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,684.1
NSPS 419.1
ANSPS 49.1
Oil/Gas Plants 36.9
Total 2,189.1
0.859
0.720
0.302
0.117
1.998
3.922
1.164
0.326
0.620
2.192
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,397.0
866.6
170.9
117.2
7,551.7
3.900
1.466
0.801
0.385
6.552
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
700.7
280.1
251.0
1,382.3
2.264
1.200
0.284
0.900
0.722
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
357.8
174.0
127*9
18.7
678.4
0.662
0.556
0.949
0.079
2.246
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 4
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0,
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
5 LBS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
17.6
32.8
96.2
184.9
0.031
0.029
0.228
0.420
0.708
2.470
1.214
0.288
0.458
0.522
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
396.1
191.6
160.7
114.9
863.3
0.693
0.585
1.177
0.499
2.954
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
13,910.7
2,262.3
1,326.8
1.245.1
18,744.8
9.776
4.058
7.376
2.992
24.202
2.846
1.114
0.360
0.832
1.550
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs.
Million 6tu)
SO /
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
148.2
108.2
256.4
0.209
0.240
0.449
1.418
0.902
1.142
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,469.6
79.0
108.4
305.6
1,962.6
1.059
0.132
0.649
0.713
2.553
2.776
1.196
0.334
0.858
1.538
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
3, 118.6
265.5
240.9
310.7
3,935.7
2.480
0.442
1.446
0.518
4.886
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,264.9
NSPS 265.4
ANSPS 172.0
Oil/Gas Plants 56.2
Total 2,758.5
3.300
1.200
0.332
0.878
1.854
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
7,001.3
609.9
521.3
780.7
8,913.2
5.121
1.016
3.129
1.599
10.865
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.5 LBS
S02/MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,839.8
NSPS 463.4
ANSPS 64.4
Oil/Gas Plants 82.5
Total 5,450.0
3.135
0.772
0.390
0.275
4.572
3.088
1.200
0.330
0.600
2.384
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,720.3
NSPS 419.1
ANSPS 47.8
Oil/Gas Plants 36.8
Total 2,223.9
0.859
0.718
0.299
0.117
1.993
4.006
1.168
0.320
0.630
2.232
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,560.1
882.5
122.2
119.3
7,674.1
3.994
1.490
0.689
0.392
6.565
3.284
1.184
0.326
0.608
2.338
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
699.3
277.5
251.0
1,378.3
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
357.8
174.0
127.9
18.7
678.4
0.662
0.556
0.949
0.079
2.246
1.080
0.626
0.270
0.474
0.604
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20-- 5
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0,
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITHOUT EXEMPTIONS
5 LBS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
17.6
32.8
96.2
184.9
2.470
1.214
0.288
0.458
0.522
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
396.1
191.6
160.7
114.9
863.3
1.144
0.656
0.274
0.460
0.584
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
14,108.0
2,383.2
1,071.6
1,265.9
18,828.7
9.941
4.259
6.966
3.049
24.215
2.838
1.120
0.308
0.830
1.556
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
C.20 - 6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO,. Emissions
f10 Tons) Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
148.8
108.3
252.0
0.208
0.240
0.448
1.430
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,468.7
72.4
132.6
297.6
1,971.3
1.058
0.121
0.686
0.696
2.561
2.776
1.196
0.386
0.856
1.540
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 3,111.5
NSPS 184.2
ANSPS 348.8
Oil/Gas Plants 303.0
Total 3,947.5
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,243.4
NSPS 207.1
ANSPS 266.9
Oil/Gas Plants 53.2
Total 2,770.5
2.432
0.307
1.633
0.502
4.874
1.352
0.345
1.160
0.111
2.968
2.560
1.200
0.428
1.208
1.620
3.318
1.200
0.460
0.958
1.866
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,967.4
463.7
748.3
762.1
8,941.3
5.050
0.773
3.479
1.549
10.851
2.760
1.200
0.430
0.984
1.648
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS
S02/MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO2 Emissions
Quads Consumed
Emissions/
Million Btu
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,736.2
NSPS 453.6
ANSPS 120.3
Oil/Gas Plants 80.3
Total 5,390.4
3.042
0.756
0.514
0.268
4.580
3.114
1.200
0.468
0.600
2.354
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,669.2
NSPS 415.2
ANSPS 64.7
Oil/Gas Plants 35.7
Total 2,184.7
0.853
0.711
0.293
0.115
1.972
3.914
1.168
0.442
0.620
2.216
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,405.4
868.8
185.0
116.0
7,575.1
3.290
1.184
1.184
0.606
2.312
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
700.7
353.5
247.1
1,451.8
2.264
1.200
0.360
0.902
0.762
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
357.8
169.7
184.6
17.0
727.9
0.658
0.531
0.969
0.075
2.233
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 6
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.67 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
17.7
45.9
96.2
198.1
0.031
0.029
0.222
0.420
0.702
2.470
1.220
0.414
0.458
0.564
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
394.9
187.4
230.5
113.2
926.0
0.685
0.560
1.191
0.495
2.931
1.152
0.670
0.388
0.458
0.632
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
13,918.2
2,220.5
1,517.2
1,238.5
18,894.3
9.767
3.968
7.440
2.975
24.150
2.850
1.120
0.408
0.832
1.564
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
1990
C.20 - 7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
New England
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
148.3
108.3
252.0
0.208
0.240
0.448
1.382
0.902
1.126
Middle Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
1,468.7
72.4
126.2
297.6
1,964.8
1.058
0.121
0.660
0.696
2.535
2.776
1.196
0.382
0.856
1.550
South Atlantic
Coal Plants
Existing 3,111.7
NSPS 191.5
ANSPS 357.1
Oil/Gas Plants 303.Q
Total 3,963.3
East South Central
Coal Plants
Existing 2,243.3
NSPS 204.5
ANSPS 305.2
Oil/Gas Plants 53.2
Total 2,806.2
2.432
0.319
1.646
0.502
4.899
1.351
0.341
1. 161
0.111
2.964
2.558
1.200
0.434
1.208
1.618
3.320
1.200
0.526
0.958
1.894
EAST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,967.5
468.4
788.5
156.1
8,986.3
5.049
0.781
3.467
1.549
10.846
2.760
1.200
0.454
0.202
1.658
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20-7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
East North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 4,732.8
NSPS 453.5
ANSPS 135.6
Oil/Gas Plants 80.2
Total 5,402.1
3.039
0.756
0.516
0.266
4.577
West North Central
Coal Plants
Existing 1,672.0
NSPS 414.7
ANSPS 78.2
Oil/Gas Plants 35.7
Total 2,200.6
0.854
0.710
0.292
0.115
1.971
3.916
1.168
0.534
0.620
2.232
MIDWEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
6,404.8
868.8
213.8
115.9
7,602.7
3.893
1.466
0.808
0.381
6.548
3.290
1.184
0.530
0.608
2.322
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
150.6
700.7
460.8
247.1
1,559.2
0.133
1.168
1.954
0.548
3.803
2.264
1.200
0.472
0.902
0.820
Mountain
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
339.2
169.3
237.3
9.2
755.0
ICF
INCORPORATED
-------
C.20 - 7
Preliminary Draft
September 1, 1978
1990
SO EMMISSIONS PER QUAD OF COAL
CONSUMED UNDER ALTERNATIVE STANDARD OF 0.8 LBS
SO /MMBTU FLOOR WITH EXEMPTIONS
SO Emissions
T10 Tons)
Quads Consumed
Emissions
(Lbs. SO /
Million Btu)
Pacific
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
38.3
17.7
55.5
93.3
204.7
0.031
0.029
0.221
0.409
0.690
2.470
1.220
0.302
0.456
0.594
REST OF WEST
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
377.5
186.9
292.8
102.5
959.7
0.660
0.559
1.242
0.463
2.924
1.144
0.668
0.472
0.442
0.656
NATIONAL
Coal Plants
Existing
NSPS
ANSPS
Oil/Gas Plants
Total
13,900.3
2,224.1
1,755.9
1,227.6
19,107.9
9.736
3.973
7.470
^
24.120
2.856
1.120
0.470
0.834
1.584
ICF
INCORPORATED
------- |