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          Research and Development
&EPA
Data Analysis of
Drinking Water
Asbestos Fiber
Size

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                RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology.  Elimination of traditional grouping was  consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:

      1.  Environmental  Health Effects Research
      2.  Environmental  Protection Technology
      3.  Ecological Research
      4.  Environmental  Monitoring
      5.  Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
      6.  Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
      7.  Interagency Energy-Environment Research and  Development
      8.  "Special" Reports
      9.  Miscellaneous Reports
This report has been assigned to the ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH EFFECTS RE-
SEARCH series. This series describes projects and studies relating to the toler-
ances of man for unhealthful substances or conditions. This work is generally
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clude biomedical instrumentation and health research techniques  utilizing ani-
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This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                                  EPA-600/1-79-020
                                                  May 1979
             DATA ANALYSIS OF DRINKING WATER
                   ASBESTOS FIBER SIZE
                            by
                     Michael E. Tarter
Department of Biomedical and Environmental Health Sciences
                 University of California
                Berkeley, California  94720
                 Order No. CA-7-3036-J-I
                      Project Officer

                     James R. Millette
                Exposure Evaluation Branch
            Health Effects Research Laboratory
                  Cincinnati, Ohio  45268
             HEALTH EFFECTS RESEARCH LABORATORY
             OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
            U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                  CINCINNATI, OHIO 45268

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                                 DISCLAIMER
     This report has been reviewed by the Health Effects Research Laboratory,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication.  Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies
of the U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names
or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
                                     ii

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                                  FOREWORD
     The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was created in response to
increasing public concern about the dangers of pollution to the health and
welfare of the American people and their environment.  The complexities of
environmental problems originate in the deep interdependent relationships
between the various physical and biological segments of man's natural and
social world.  Solutions to these environmental problems require an inte-
grated program of research and development using input from a number of
disciplines.

     The Health Effects Research Laboratory was established to provide sound
health effects data in support of the regulatory activities of the EPA.
Evaluating man's exposure to environmental health hazards is a key segment
in developing such a data bank.  Studies of exposure require identification,
characterization, and quantification of physical, chemical, and biological
agents found in the environment.  In addition, exposure assessment involves
the determination of conditions that cause agents to be released into the
environment, the study of the routes and pathways to man, and research into
the body's ability to prevent the entrance of environmental hazards.

     This report presents the results of statistical comparisons of the
sizes of asbestos fibers found in various  types of  drinking water  supplies.
Because the body may handle asbestos fibers of various sizes in different
ways, it is important to study the sizes of^fj.bers  to which man is exposed
from drinking water.
                                        R. J.  Garner
                                          Director
                             Health Effects Research  Laboratory
                                      111

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                                  ABSTRACT
     A statistical study of asbestos fiber size characteristics was conducted
using data obtained from a variety of San Francisco Bay Area water systems.
Particular emphasis was placed on comparison of fiber length distributions for
samples collected from pre and post asbestos cement (AC) pipe systems.  Sig-
nificant differences were detected between the fiber size distributions in
samples of raw water and water collected after a length of AC pipe.  Little
difference was detected between the fiber size distributions of a raw water
sample and a treated water sample.  It was also shown that before and after AC
pipe, fibers in the water differed most significantly in the length distribu-
tions of narrow fibers.

     This report was submitted in fulfillment of order CA-7-3036-J-I by
Michael E. Tarter of the University of California, Berkeley.  This report
covers a period from August 16, 1977, to June 30, 1978.
                                      iv

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                                    CONTENTS
Foreword	iii
Abstract	iv
Figures	vi
Acknowledgments  	    x

     1.   Introduction 	    1

     2.   San Francisco Water District (SFWD)
          Raw Water and Treated Water Com-
          parisons 	    3

     3.   East Bay Municipal Utility District
          (EBMUD), Before and After Flow
          Through Asbestos Cement (A/C) Pipe 	    9

     4.   SFWD, Hetch Hetchy Supply, Before
          and After Flow Through A/C Pipe	20

     5.   Combined Region, Before and After
          A/C Pipe Samples	25
     6.   Comparison of Narrow and Thicker
          Fibers for Combined Before and
          After A/C Pipe Samples	33

     7.   Comparison of Before and After
          A/C Pipe Samples for Narrow
          Fiber Group	37

     8.   Comparison of Before and After
          A/C Pipe Samples for the wider
          Fiber Group	44

     9.   Raw Water and Combined After A/C
          Pipe Fiber Length Comparisons for
          Narrow Fibers  	   47
    10.   Raw Water and Combined After A/C
          Pipe Fiber Length Comparisons for
          Thick Fibers   	52

    11.   Discussion   	54

References	57

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                                  FIGURES

Number                                                                 Page

   1      Comparison  of  Cumulative Estimated  Fiber
          Length Data for  Raw  and  Treated Water  (X
          axis scaled in microns)  ..................     4
          Comparison of  Estimated  Length  Density
          Function Data  for  Raw and  Treated Water
          (X axis scaled in  microns)   ......  .  .........     5

          Histogram of San Andreas Treated Water
          Fiber Length Data  (micron  X  axis scale)  ..........     7

          Histogram of Crystal  Springs Raw Water
          Fiber Length Data  (micron  X  axis scale)  ..........     8

          Estimated Cumulative  Plot  of EBMUD
          Fiber Length Data  (X  axis  scaled in log
          micron units) .......................     10

          Estimated Population  Density Plots  of
          EBMUD Fiber Length Data  (X axis scaled
          in log micron  units) ....................     H
   7      Histogram of  Fiber Length Data  after
          A/C Pipe (X axis  log  micron scale) .............     12

   R      Histogram of  Fiber Length Data  before
          A/C Pipe (X axis  log  micron scale) .............     13

   9      Frequency Diagram for Sample Number
          Plotted against Fiber Length (Y axis
          micron scale) .......................     14

  10      Frequency Diagram after Elimination of
          Possible Outlier  (Y axis micron scale) ...........     16

  11      Estimated Population  Density Plots  of
          EBMUD Fiber Length Data (X axis in
          micron scale) .......................     17

  12      Histogram of  EBMUD Fiber Length Data
          after A/C Pipe  (X axis micron scale) ............     18
                                      vi

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Number                                                                Page

  13      Histogram of EBMUD Fiber Length Data
          Before A/C Pipe (X axis micron scale)	    19

  14      Estimated Cumulative Plots of Fiber
          Length Data from the Hetch-Hetchy
          System (X axis micron scale)	    21

  15      Estimated Population Density Plots of
          Fiber Length Data from the Hetch-
          Hetchy System (X axis micron scale)	    22

  16      Histogram of Fiber Length Data after
          A/C Pipe from Hetch-Hetchy System
          (X axis in micron scale)	    23

  17      Histogram of Fiber Length Data Before
          A/C Pipe from Hetch-Hetchy System
          (X axis in micron scale)	    24

  18      Estimated Cumulative Plots of Pooled
          Fiber Length Data (X axis in micron
          scale, T = before, X = after)	    26

  19      Estimated Population Density Plots
          of Pooled Fiber Length Data (X axis
          in micron scale)	    27

  20      Histogram of Pooled Fiber Length Data
          after A/C Pipe (X axis in micron
          scale)	    28

  21      Histogram of Pooled Fiber Length
          Data before A/C Pipe (X axis in
          micron scale)  	    29

  22      Comparison of Estimated Cumulative
          Plots of Pooled Fiber Length Data
          from Raw Water and Water after A/C
          Pipe (X axis in micron scale, T «
          raw, x = after)	    30

  23      Histogram of Pooled Fiber Length
          Data after A/C Pipe (X axis  in
          micron scale)  	    31

  24      Histogram of Raw Water Fiber Length
          Data (X axis in micron  scale)	    32
                                     vii

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Number                                                                  Pagi

  25      Frequency Diagram showing Fiber
          Diameter against Fiber Length 	     34

  26      Position of Frequency Diagram dur-
          ing the Separation Process	     35

  27      Comparison of Cumulative Fiber
          Length Data for Narrow and Wide
          Fibers (T - narrow;  X - wide)	     36

  28      Comparison of Cumulative Fiber
          Length Data before and after A/C
          Pipe for the Narrowest Fiber Group
          (X axis scaled in microns)	     38

  29      Comparison of Cumulative Fiber
          Length Data before and after A/C
          Pipe for the Narrowest Fiber
          Group using a Smoothing Technique
          (X axis scaled in microns)	  .     39

  30      Comparison of Cumulative Log Fiber
          Length Data before and after A/C
          Pipe for the Narrowest Fiber Group
          (X axis in log micron scale)	     40

  31      Comparison of Estimated Fiber Size
          Population Density Curves of Fiber
          Length before and after A/C Pipe
          for Narrowest Fiber Group (X axis
          in log micron scale)	     41

  32      Histogram of Fiber Length Data for
          Narrowest Fiber Group after A/C
          Pipe (X axis in log micron scale)	     42

  33      Histogram of Fiber Length Data for
          Narrowest Fiber Group before A/C
          Pipe (X axis in log micron scale)	     43

  34      Comparison of Cumulative Fiber Length
          Data before and after A/C Pipe for
          the Wider Fiber Group (X axis in
          micron scale;  T = before;  X = after)	    45

  35      Comparison of Cumulative Fiber
          Length Data before and after A/C
          Pipe for the Wider Fiber Group (X
          axis in log micron scale;  T =
          before;  X = after)	     46

                                     viii

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Number                                                                   Page

  36      Comparison of Pooled Fiber Length
          Data after A/C Pipe and Raw Water
          Fiber Length Data for the Narrow
          Fiber Ranges (X axis in log micron
          scale).	    48

  37      Comparison of Estimated Population
          Density Curves for Pooled Fiber
          Length Data after A/C Pipe and
          Raw Water Fiber Length Data for the
          Narrow Fiber Ranges (X axis in log
          micron scale)	    49

  38      Histogram of Narrow Fiber Length
          Data after A/C Pipe (X axis in
          log micron scale)	    50

  39      Histogram of Narrow Fiber Length
          Data for Raw Water (X axis in log
          micron scale) 	    51

  40      Comparison of Wide Fiber Length
          Data after A/C Pipe and Wide Fiber
          Length Data from Raw Water (X axis
          in micron scale)	    53

  41      Frequency Diagram of Diameter and
          Length for Combined Samples before
          A/C Pipe (maximum sample size that
          can be analyzed using GRAFSTAT) 	    55

  42      Plot of Linear Regression for Data
          Shown in Figure 40 (a  = .05 confi-
          dence band) .	    56
                                      ix

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                               ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
     The cooperation of Jack C.  Murchio and Lorene A. Jackson,  who provided
considerable insight into the asbestos problem, is gratefully acknowledged.
GRAFSTAT program options were implemented by Jansin T. Wong-Lee.  Technical
assistance was provided by Susan B. Lum.

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                                    SECTION  1

                                  INTRODUCTION

      In  this  paper, with  very  few exceptions,  information  is  presented  in  one
of  the following  three  forms:   1)  histograms,  where  estimated probability  of
occurrence, i.e.,  the estimated distribution density of  the variable  under
consideration,  is  presented  on the y-axis and  plotted against the  value  of
the variable  (See  [2] Section  2),  2) nonparametric density estimates  which
are similar to  histograms  but  tend to  be both  smoother and more data-effi-
cient (See  [2]  Sections 3  through 5),  and 3) cumulative  distribution  estimates
which are essentially indefinite  integrals  of  the nonparametric density  esti-
mates.   Specifically, both the histogram and the nonparametric density  esti-
mate  associate  the relative  odds  or chance  y=f(x) On the y-axis, to the
observed length x  of the  fiber on the  x-axis.  The cumulative distribution
estimator associates the chance y=£(x) of observing  an asbestos fiber of a
given length  x, or a smaller length, to x.

      For each set  of comparisons  the above  three estimates will be presented
in  reverse order with F(x) shown  first, optimized nonparametric ?(x)  second
and histogram ?(x) last.   This choice  of presentation was  motivated by  the
fact  that significant differences  between cumulatives F(x) are easier to con-
firm  than differences between  optimized nonparametric t(x).   On the other
hand, once the  difference  between  two  f(x)  has been  confirmed, optimized non-
parametric f(x) tend to show where or  for what values of x, differences  occur.
Conventional  histograms are  presented  last  because,  as described in [2]  Sec-
tion 2,  in a  more detailed analysis, one may wish to  view  the sample  rather
than  to  simply  utilize the sample  to infer  properties of a population or,
differences or  lack of differences  between  populations.

     Information about the various  sites is presented in order of  increased
statistical significance or decreased  p-value of estimated difference.   For
example, despite large sample  sizes, n = 318 and n =  658,  Crystal  Springs  raw
water and San Andreas treated  water samples yielded  almost identically shaped
estimated fiber length distributions.  Roughly speaking, this suggests that
the effect of treatment Is constant or non-existent  for all fiber  lengths  for
these groups.   In the next section this finding will  be described  in  detail.
Understandably, the more complex  the combination of  variables used, the more
likely it is  for one to be able to discern differences.  Specifically, when
the lengths of  the narrowest and  the thicker fibers are considered separately,
it was found  that one could more clearly visualize the difference between  pre-
and post- A/C pipe samples of  the  narrowest fibers.    Examples of the  above
finding are presented towards  the  end of this paper  in keeping with the
low-to-high level of significance  order of presentation.

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     It should also be noted that detailed information about the nature and
location of data sources can be found in Reference 1.

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                                  SECTION 2

                   SAN FRANCISCO WATER DISTRICT RAW WATER
                        AND TREATED WATER COMPARISONS
     Although the graph shown in Figure 1 may appear to be a single curve, it
is in actuality two estimated cumulatives of fiber length distributions.  One
curve is constructed using data from samples of Crystal Springs raw water and
the other using samples of San Andreas treated water.  The Crystal Springs
water flows into the San Andreas Reservoir and then through the San Andreas
treatment plant before distribution to the consumers.  The Crystal Springs raw
water and San Andreas treated water asbestos counts are representative of wat-
er before and after treatment.  The near identity of these two estimated dis-
tributions is implied by the bottom two lines of Figure 1.  The maximum dif-
ference between the two estimated cumulatives is 0.14488E-01 = 0.14488E times
10   = 0.014488.  Using the conventional Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample-two
sided test (See [3] pp. 127-36) a maximum difference of .92769E-01 would be
necessary to assert, with an o = .05, that there is a difference between
the two groups.  Naturally, an absence of evidence of population differ-
ence does not necessarily imply that the populations are statistically
identical.  However, in light of the large sample sizes involved, Figure 1
strongly suggests that the San Andreas water treatment, which consists of
coagulation, filtration flocculation, caustic soda, fluoridation and chlo-
rination, is not affecting asbestos fiber length distribution.
            *
     As an exercise in interpreting Figure 1, consider a line segment drawn
parallel to the x-axis which begins at the 0.5000 value midway up the y-axis,
intercepts the curve y=F(x) and then changes direction and descends vertic-
ally until it intercepts the x-axis at a point close to x = 1.  This value,
x = 1 is identical to the estimated median of both the sample size n = 318
and n = 658 group.  In general, the numbers printed below each graph pro-
vide reference points, e.g., the 50th percentile =1, to be used for com-
parison purposes.

     In all but one set of figures in this paper the post-treatment sample
will be described in the leftmost column headed by EXCL GRP (x) and the pre-
treatment samples will be described in the column headed by INCL GRP(T).
Usually the sample sizes will be large for the post-treatment samples, e.g.,
across from the word SAMPLE, under the symbols EXCL GRP(x), N = 658 while n
= 318 for the pre-treated sample.

     Figure 2 corresponds to Figure 1 with the exception that the estimated
population probability densities, £(x), are displayed in place of the esti-
mated population cumulatives, F(x).  The wavy shape of the estimated proba-
bility density in the tail or extreme value regions is either due to samp-

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Figure 1.  Comparison of cumulative estimated  fiber  length  data for raw and
                       treated water  (X axis scaled  in  microns).

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     variation or the discrete nature of  the asbestos  fiber length measure-
ment process.

     Unlike  the estimated probability densities shown  in Figure 2, the histo-
grams of San Andreas and Crystal Springs  fiber length  distributions are un-
corrected  for sampling variation.  However, due to the large sample sizes
available  the two histograms are remarkably similar and lend a great deal of
support  to the assertion that the fiber length populations under considera-
tion are statistically identical.

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                                 SECTION 3

                 EAST BAY MUNICIPAL UTILITY DISTRICT (EBMUD)

              COMPARISON BEFORE AND AFTER FLOW THROUGH AC PIPE
     For reasons to be described later in this section, the natural logarithm
of fiber length was used as the x - axis variable in Figures 5 through 8.  To
convert any of the numbers on the x - axis to the usual arithmetic scale one
can use a table of exp(x) or, somewhat less conveniently a table of loga-
rithms; e.g., the median for before AC pipe, 0, is equivalent to a fiber
length of exp(O) =1.  In this one instance the sample size, n = 123, availa-
ble for the before AC pipe group is larger than that, n = 24, for the after
AC pipe group.

     The after AC pipe distribution appears to be shifted to the right rela-
tive to the before AC pipe distribution.  However, since the observed maxi-
mum difference equals 0.22444, which is smaller than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov
critical value of 0.30369, the difference between the populations cannot be
said to be significant for the sample sizes available.

     One advantage of using a logarithmic transformation of fiber length data
is illustrated by the population density estimates shown in Figure 6.  The
symmetry, homoscedasticity and bell-shape of these curves suggests that a
distribution*dependent-test for group difference might be preferable to the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test which, although asymptotically distribution-free,
tends to have lower power than the latter test.  However, in light of more
clear-cut results to be described in later sections of this paper, further
statistical elaboration for EBMUD data was not considered.

     The two histograms shown in Figures 7 and 8 again tend to illustrate the
tendency towards discreteness or clumping of asbestos fiber length data.
Also note the possible "outlier" which occurs at a considerable distance
from the next largest value in Figure 8.  Since this outlier was brought
closer to the main body of data by the logarithmic transformation its appa-
rent separation from the other data values would have been considerably
greater in a plot constructed by using an arithmetic scale as is shown in
Figure 9.

     The numerical value of the possible outlier was determined by plotting
the sample code number against fiber length using the GRAFSTAT light pen
sensing option.  (This and other GRAFSTAT data editing and identification
options are described in [4] and [5]).  The fiber length determined by this
process was 58.721 microns as shown in Figure 9.

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SAMPLE 24 123
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EST.MAX 0.64274 0.58000
MEDIAN 0.22234 0.0
                                                                MAX RIF  -  0.22444
                                                           SIG. FT (0.05)  -   .30349
Figure  5.   Estimated  cumulative  plot of EBMUD  fiber length  data (X axis scaled in log micron  units).

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3   HSTGRAH

4   CHOOSE AB

5   RESET AB

6  -WTROB. DENSITY     032137.

7   CUM. CURVE

8   R(X) FCTN

9    SVIVAL CURVE

A    LOG XFORM

 B    LKH SVIVAL

 C    HEUR. SVIVAL

 D    CUM. HAZARD

 E    SVL DENSITY

 F    EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR

 G    QUIT &  EXIT
                         0 16069
                                                X   T
                                         T    X
                                  JL
                                  r&~-	
                                            - 18769

                                       PARAMETERS

                                         SAMPLE
                                         EST.Ml)
                                       EST.SCMA
                                        EST.HAX
                                         MEDIAN
  T     *

  T     x
   T
    T    '
     t
KXCI. CRP(X)

   24
  0.38100
  0.61801
  0.64274
  0.22234
                                                                      [NCL CRP(T)

                                                                          123
                                                                        -.13083
                                                                        0.6R323
                                                                        0.58000
                                                                        0.0
                                                              VALUE OF T  -  3.4065
Figure 6.    Estimated  population  density plots of EBMUD fiber length  data
                               (X  axis scaled  in  log  micron units).

-------
UHIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -HflSTCRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROS. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B UCH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
F EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT & EXIT

NO. OF INTERVAL - 20









IX






















IX


2X




















3X 3X












SX














3X












1 «7 -8986 -3299 02388 0 80TS 1376 194S 2 5M 3082 3651
-1183 -6142 - <552E-0» 5232 1B92 1661 2229 2798 3367 3935




PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 24 123
EST.HU 0.38100 -.13083
EST.SGMA 0.61801 0.68323
EST.MAX 0.6427* 0.58000
MEDIAN 0.22234 0.0
Figure 7.  Histogram of fiber length data after A/C pipe (X axis log micron scale),

-------
UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 ++HSTCRAM
* CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
^ CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
' EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT & EXIT















167












2T

..











6T
























12T





I7T








.211

















101
gr

5T
31

It IT It 11
~~i n
OTH6 - 3299 « 2388 0 «075 1 376 1 915 ? 511 3 982 3 E.S1
-1 183 - 611? - 1S57E-OJ ^232 I S12 1 661 2 229 7 TP* 1 ~!Kf 3 9T5
NO. OF INTERVAL - 20





PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SA1IPLE 24 123
FST.MU 0.38100 -.13083
EST SCMA 0.61801 0.68323
FST MAX 0.64274 0.58000
MEDIAN 0.222J4 0.0
Figure R.   Histogram of fiber length data before A/C pipe (X  axis  log  micron  scale)

-------
                                      SMMPLE NUMBEK

CTRL

1
VIEW/EDIT DATA


GET NEW DATAi-
2 -H-VIEW/EDIT DATA
3
4
5

6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
E

F
G



COR(X
S.D.
S.D.

MODIFY WEIGHTS
CHANGE LAMBDA'
LINEAR REGRESSION

PLOT FOE CONTOURS
TRANSFORMATION
EXIT TO UNIVAR
X & Y RANGE FACTORS
PLOT FULLSCREF.N
EXPAND PLOT SCALE
RESET PLOT SCALE
EDIT DATA POINTS
PLOT HSTGRM(X)
1.7844
UNIVAR OF Y
QUIT & EXIT
-7. ISOO-
















J
».'
y
a



1
I








,

' *
:3
:,
•~'t







•












I \ 8 1
'"
199.75 300 37
WtS • 147 OF 147
,Y) = 0.100
(X) - 0.751
(Y) - 4.93


r:
i
B

P
L.
r.i
G
T
H












1 J07 K



\
X • 701.04
T - S8.72I
Figure 9.   Frequency diagram  for  sample number plotted against fiber length (Y axis micron scale)

-------
     Each number or letter of Figure 10 indicates the number of data points
at a specific sample index-number, length in microns, coordinate.  For exam-
ple the letter C, at the mean fiber length y coordinate 1.3925 of leftmost
group 200 indicates, since C is the third letter of the alphabet, that 9+3
= 12 (the number of non-zero digits + the position of C in the alphabet)
points takes on the value 1.3925 within the group indexed by the number 200
(which corresponds to the before treatment subgroup).

     Note that after the grouping option has been executed, there are 123-1 =
122 points in the second group (as indicated on the third line from the
bottom) due to the removal of the possible outlier.

     With the exception of the one possible outlier, whose removal was pre-
viously described, Figure 11 is the arithmetic scale equivalent of Figure 6.
Note that the median of 0.0 appearing in the second column of Figure 4 cor-
responds to the value exp(O) = 1 of Figure 11.

     The slight, but not necessarily statistically significant, shift to
larger fiber lengths after flow through A/C pipe is illustrated in Figures
11, 12 and 13.
                                     15

-------
                 VIEW/EDIT DATA

             CTRL



             1    GET NEW DATA


             2  -H-VIEW/EDIT DATA


             3    MODIFY WEIGHTS


             4    CHANGE LAMBDA


             5    LINEAR REGRESSION


             6    PLOT PDE CONTOURS


             7    TRANSFORMATION


             8    EXIT TO UNIVAR


             9    X 4 Y RANGE FACTORS


             A    PLOT FULLSCREEN


             B    EXPAND PLOT SCALE


             C    RESET PLOT SCALE


             D    EDIT DATA POINTS


             E    PLOT HSTGRM(X)


             F    UNIVAR OF Y


             G    QUIT & EXIT
                                           SAMPLE MUMBER
                                     199 7S
                                                    2«0
                                                wre - i
                                                       37
Figure  10.   Frequency diagram after  elimination of possible outlier  (Y axis  micron  scale)

-------






UNIVARIATE

CTRL

1
2
3
4
5
6

7

8
9

A

B

C


D
E

F
G








GET NEW DATA o 5491*
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTGRAH
CHOOSE AB
RESET AB
++PROB. DENSITY * Xe'°'3

CUM. CURVE

R(X) FCTN
SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORM
e 18305
LKH SVIVAL

HEUR. SVIVAL


CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVARo ^^
T
T
T
T
T
T
1

1
XX
I ** ' *X
* X
* X
* I X
X X
* X
* T X
X X
X IX
X
1 X
T X
T X
1
T X
T
I X
T X
'T V"TT
T TXT
f I* \^ T fTTi jTrTTTTTfTTT
QUIT & EXIT '»"""> 2<"" "•**«?" ' "^?«r- '""
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 24 122
EST.MU 1.4320 0.81600
EST.SGMA 0.92951 0.52532
EST.MAX 0.42851 0.73218
MEDIAN 1.2500 1.0000
VALUE OF T - 4.5358
Figure 11.  Estimated population density plots of EBMUD fiber length data (X axis in micron scale)

-------
00
UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 ++HSTCRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
S RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTH
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
F EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT t EXIT •


















281









28T

















9t

ST
3T
21
II It 11 II 11
	 1 1 	 II 	 II 	 1 	 1
420» 1 300 2 180 3 «60 3940 4.820 S 700 6580 7460 8340
08610 1.740 2.620 3500 4 3BO S 261 6140 7020 7900 8781)
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 24 122
EST.MU 1.A320 0.81600
EST.SGHA 0.92951 0.52532
NO. OF INTERVAL - 20 EST.WX 0.42851 0.73218
MEDIAN 1.2500 1.0000
             Figure 12.  Histogram of EBMUD fiber length data after A/C pipe (X axis micron scale)

-------
                                  8X
UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 4+HSTGRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORH
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
T EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT & EXIT 1

NO. OF INTERVAL - 20









2X























3X 3X








5X











2X

IX


4211 1300 2189 3 060 3941 4 820 5700 6580 7468 8340
• 8600 1741 2.620 3500 4381 S 269 6141 7020 7900 8780
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 24 122
EST.MU 1.4320 0.81600
EST.SGMA 0.92951 0.52532
EST.MAX 0.42851 0.73218
MEDIAN 1.2500 1.0000
Figure 13.  Histogram of EBMUD fiber length data before A/C pipe (X axis micron scale)

-------
                                  SECTION 4

              SAN FRANCISCO WATER DEPARTMENT HETCH-HETCHY (HH)

             BEFORE AND AFTER FLOW THROUGH ASBESTOS CEMENT PIPE
     Before proceeding to data analyses which produced positive findings, it
seems appropriate to present an analysis which, possibly due to sample size
considerations, seems to contradict the trends suggested in the previous
section.  In this instance, unlike the previous data, a larger sample was
available for after than for before AC piped water.

     The cumulatives shown in Figure 14 differ substantially from their Fig-
ure 5 counterparts.  Unlike those of Figure 5, Figure 14 cumulatives cross
each other.  This finding would not be affected by use of a logarithmic or
any other conventional data transformation.

     Two features which differentiate HH and EBMUD fiber length distribu-
tions are indicated by Figure 15.  Despite the small sample size of
n = 15, one can probably infer that the before AC pipe fiber lengths are
associated with a two component distribution.  It is also apparent that at
least before logarithmic transformation, both before and after AC pipe data
is highly clumped.

     The skewed shape of the after AC pipe and the possibly two component
structure of the before AC pipe fiber length distributions is discernible
from the two histograms shown in Figures 16 and 17.
                                     20

-------





CTRL

1

2
3
4

5

6

UNIVARIATE






GET NEW DATA f ^^

VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTGRAM
CHOOSE AB

RESET AB

PROB. DENSITY » 58(00

7 ++CUM. CURVE


8

9

A

B

C
D

E

F

G








R(X) FCTN

SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORM
0 750110
LKH SVIVAL

HEIffi. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
0 0
x**1"""""* ,T'

/T
T
r
x" '
•*)&' T
x^
,'T'
x
/i TtT,intnimT"
" /'''
X |-
x r

X 1
r
x .
T
X
I
7
f
T
t*
1
*
T X
I

T X
X
X
X
X
r i •>
QUIT 6 EXIT ° ?r t<)e 2 4000 4 6000 6 pooo
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 263 15
EST.MJ 1.0800 1.1680
EST.SflMA 0.56163 1.3217
EST.MAX 0.64533 0.28742
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.2000
                                                                         :»> <,•.»*
                                               MAX DIF - 0.23763
                                            Stn.PT(0.05) -  .36103
Figure  14.   Estimated  cumulative  plots of fiber  length data  from the
                    Hetch-Hetchy System (X axis micron scale).

-------
N>
N)


CTRL

1

2
3

*

5
864533.
UNIVARIATE


GET NEW DATA
0 48401
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTCRAH

CHOOSE AB

RESET AB
6 -H-PROB. DENSITY


7

8
9

A

B

C
D

E


F
G






0 32267

CUM. CURVE

R(X) FCTN
SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORM

LKH SVIVAL » 16133

HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY


EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
OUIT S EXIT
x : '•••'"•'• !'' '-'-'"•'-
X
X
X
X


X X
X
X
X
X
X X
x *
X
x
x

/tT ''''I
TT TT x
T T
Tx r
T
X T
X T7 T
/ '\
T x x T 'T
x T x TT *
X T X T T

XX T ^QtXX'^x T T
TT TT'X yX"" IT X»
T'tTITfTT Xw^^X^X1*^ ^jOtXXXx, xfXXX)StIT y** Xxx'! Tj
»0 2 4(00 4 60CO ^"feoilO 'T'TTITTTITT^ "
PARAMETERS EXCI. GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 263 15
EST.MU 1.0800 1.1680
EST.SGHA 0.56163 1.3217
EST.MAX 0.64533 0.28742
MEDIAN 1.4OOO 1.2000
                                                                  VALUE OF T  -  -.53217


                        Figure 15.  Estimated population density plots of  fiber length data
                                      from the Hetch-Hetchy System (X axis micron  scale).

-------
          UNIVARIATE
     CTRL
     1    GET NEW DATA

     2    VIEW/EDIT DATA

     3  -H-HSTGRAM

     4    CHOOSE AB

     5    RESET AB

     6    PROB. DENSITY

     7    CUM.  CURVE

     8    R(X)  FCTN

     9    SVIVAL CURVE

     A    LOG XFORM

     B    LKH SVIVAL

     C    HEUR.  SVIVAL

     D    CUM.  HAZARD

     E    SVL DENSITY

     F    EXIT  SVL TO UNIVAR

     G    QUIT  & EXIT
         NO. OF INTERVAL - 20
S9X
                       5X
                                                     2X  2X  2X
                                                   >   I   I   I
      1 7-40   2620
       PARAMETERS

         SAMPLE
         EST.MU
       EST.SGMA
        EST.MAX
         MEDIAN
                                                   3 500
 43*0   5260
EXCL CRP(X)

  263
 1.0800
 0.56163
 0.64533
 1.4000
6 MO   7 020   7900

    INCL GRP(T)

       15
     1.1680
     1.3217
     0.28742
     1.2000
Figure  16.   Histogram  of  fiber  length data  after  A/C pipe  from  Hetch-
                           Hetchy System  (X  axis in micron  scale).

-------
                         ST
UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -M-HSTGRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROS. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
F EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT & EXIT *
27




























2T



IT IT IT IT IT IT



•1206 300 2180 3(60 3940 4820 S 700 6580 7460 8340
0.86(0 1.740 2620 3500 4380 S 260 6140 7020 7.9(10 8780
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 263 15
™ „* THTFBVAI . in EST.MU 1.0800 1.1680
HO. OF INTERVAL 20 EST.SGMA 0.56163 1.3217
EST.MAX 0.64533 0.28742
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.2000
Figure 17.  Histogram of  fiber length data before A/C pipe from Hetch-
                    Hetchy System (X axis in micron scale).

-------
                                  SECTION 5

                COMBINED BEFORE AND AFTER AC PIPE SAMPLES


     The complex distributional forms illustrated in the previous two sec-
tions suggested that larger sized samples were required to produce defini-
tive statistical conclusions.  In this section, EBMUD and HH data were
pooled in order to provide the sample size needed for detailed analysis.

     After pooling EBMUD and HH data, the estimated cumulatives of Figure 18
were obtained which are almost identical in shape to those shown in Figure
5.  Again the smaller fibers are more common for samples before AC pipe than
after AC pipe.  Unlike the statistical analysis described in Section 3,
however, here the maximum cumulative difference substantially exceeds the
critical point and hence the difference is significant.
     Figure 19 indicated a need for still more elaborate analysis of this
data as do the histograms shown in Figures 20 and 21.

     In order to check on the previous finding and assess its statistical
significance the Crystal Springs raw water sample was substituted for the
before AC pipe pooled sample and a comparable analysis performed.  Figure 22
is similar in form to Figure 18 and the difference of cumulatives is again
highly significant.

     This comparison would indicate that there is a significant difference
between the fiber lengths of natural fibers and those found after AC pipe.
The fibers found after AC pipe have a significantly larger portion of long
fibers than the raw water fibers.

     Because of the high slope of the cumulative, no density estimates were
associated with the cumulatives of Figure 22.  It should also be noted that
the scale change needed to compare pooled after AC pipe data to Crystal
Springs raw water data caused the difference between the histograms of
Figure 23 and 20.

     From the study reported  in  this  section,  it would appear  that Crystal
Springs raw water  and before  AC  piped HH and EBMUD water distributions show
similar differences with  post AC piped HH and  EBMUD water.
                                     25

-------

UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1

2

3


4

5

6

7
8

9

A

R
C
D

E

F
G








GET NEW DATA „ 7500n

VIEW/EDIT DATA

HSTGRAM


CHOOSE AD

RESET AB

PROD. DENSITY ° S0001'

•f+CUM. CURVF.
R(X) FCTN

SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORM
0 2500B
LKH SVIVAL
HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR „ „
^^n=~'^""m"!;
/^'T
/ x*
T X
' X
T
X
T
X
T X
X
T X
X
T
1 H
1 *
X
T
X
T
X
T
X
t
X
1 X
I »
X
1 X
X
x
- — • 	 1 	 .1
QUIT & EXIT " 7°"00 2"'""> •|F'ot"> 6SI"1"
PARAMETERS EXCL CRF(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 287 137
EST.MU 1.0800 1.81600
EST.SCMA 0.54862 0.53110
F.ST.MAX 0.66302 0.71369
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
MAX DIF - 0.22170
SIC. PT(0.05) - .14123
Figure 18.  Estimated cumulative plots of pooled fiber length data (X
                  axis in micron scale, T = before,  X = after).

-------





UNIVARIATE


CTRL

1

2
3

4

5
6
7


8

9

A

B

C


D
E
F
C







GET NEW DATA
«.S3527
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTCRAM

CHOOSE AB

RESET AB
-H-PROB. DENSITY , 35685
CUM. CURVE


R(X) FCTN

SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORH

LKH SVIVAL • »*«•

HEUR. SVIVAL


CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY
EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
0 1192 IE
'f
T
TX
xx
T T
X
X
T T

X
T
T X
X
Xx
X I
T X x
X
X T
X
x
X
X T
X
X
T
X
T
x x xx
X
T X
T

T X X
Ti r*T tn
XX1, TTXXx**1fjv |T
QUIT & EXIT I 26000 2-1000 V.fe'otO 6*80 1» "**" ''W g „„„„
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 287 137
EST.MU 1.0800 1.81600
EST.SGMA 0.54862 0.53110
EST.MAX 0.66302 0.71369
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
                                             VALUE OF T - 4.6816
Figure 19.  Estimated  population density plots of  pooled  fiber length
                          data (X axis in micron  scale).

-------
                                UNIVARIATE
                            CTRL
00
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -H-HSTGRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
37X

67X

S9X


28X

49X


F6X
8X
BX 5X
"llXW * ™ IK IX 2X 2X ^

F EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
I 4200 1300 2.180 3060 3 940 4820 5700 6580 7160 8340
C QUIT & EXIT 0 86»0 I 74« 3 620 3500 4 380 5260 6 I40 7 020 7900 8780
                                                         PARAMETERS
                                                                        EXCL GRP(X)
                                                                                       INCL GRP(T)
                              NO. OF INTERVAL - 20
SAMPLE
EST.MU
EST.SGMA
EST.MAX
MEDIAN
287
1.0800
0.54862
0.66302
1.4000
137
1.81600
0.53110
0.71369
1.0000
            Figure 20.   Histogram  of pooled fiber length data  after A/C pipe  (X axis in micron scale),

-------
to
V0
UNIVAKIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -H-HSTGRAM
* CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
f SVL DENSITY
T EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
G QUIT I EXIT
















33T










291


















9T

ST
4T
2T 2T 21 2T
IT II IT 1 III I IT
1 1 1 1 	 1 1 1 	 1
• 4700 1300 2180 3060 3940 4820 S 700 6 S80 7460 8340
» 8600 1741 1 620 3500 4 38« S 260 6 MO 7020 7900 8780
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
NO. OP INTERVAL - 20 SAMPLE 287 137
EST.MU 1.0800 1.81600
EST.SCHA 0.54862 0.53110
EST.MAX 0.66302 0.71369
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
             Figure 21.   Histogram of pooled fiber length data before A/C pipe (X axis in micron scale),

-------
                                     FIBER LEN&TH
DNIVARIATE
CTRL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

GET NEW DATA
1 75000
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTGRAM
CHOOSE AB
RESET AB
PROS. DENSITY , Sg0tg
•H-CUM. CURVE
R(X) FCTN
SVIVAL CURVE
LOG XFORM
LKH SVIVAL 0 ZSOOO
HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY
EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
00
QUIT & EXIT «.2W
yTTTTTT^ .^Yy^iOCXXJOOOOOOQOQWXW^
yi ^flOQQO^
/ /**
T X
T X
t' **
X
T
X
T
X
X
I
X
X
J x

X
I
X

X
IX
X
T
X
I*
X
01 3 4000 6 6900 9 8000 13 000
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 287 318
EST.MU 1.0960 1.84000
EST.SCMA 0.55532 0.44797
EST.MAX 0.66304 0.85480
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
                                                          MAX DIP  -  0.25901
                                                     SIG. PT (0.05)  -   .11073
Figure 22.  Comparison of estimated cumulative plots of pooled fiber  length data from raw water
                    and after A/C pipe  (X axis in micron scale, T = raw,  X = after).

-------
                             UNIVARIATE
UJ
                                                96X
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -H-HSTCRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSin
7 COM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
B IJCH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENSITY
F EXIT SVL TO UHIVAR •*
0
G QUIT t EXIT
NO. OF INTERVAL • 20
S3X


76X

25x*"i
9X
"- "•rjT-!«^a. l~l-^
S20» 1800 3180 < 36« S M( 6920 8200 9-180 1076 12 IM
1 160 2 MO 3720 -B 000 6280 7560 8 8<0 10 12 1 1 «0 12 6*
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 287 318
EST.MU 1.0960 1.84000
EST.SGMA 0.55532 0.44797
EST.MAX 0.66304 0.85480
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
             Figure  23.
Histogram  of  pooled fiber length  data after A/C pipe (X axis in micron scale)

-------
OJ
N>

UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
e
F
C



GET MEW DATA
VIEW/EDIT DATA
•H-HSTCRAM
CHOOSE AB
RESET AB
PROB. DENSITY
CUM. CURVE
R(X) FCTN
SVIVAL CURVE
LOG XFORM
LKH SVIVAL
HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY
EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
QUIT & EXIT
•
22T








































481


I6T

31 31
	 1 	 1 IT IT IT IT II
5200 800 3 080 4 360 5 (H« B 920 8 200 9 481 10 76 1? 04
1 16t 2.4«« 3 726 5 000 6.280 7 56« 8 84« 10 12 II 40 12 68
PARAMETERS F.XCL CRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
NO. OF INTERVAL - 20 SAMPLE 287 31g
EST.MU 1.0960 1.84000
EST.SCMA 0.55532 0.44797
EST.MAX 0.66304 0.85480
MEDIAN 1.4000 1.0000
                Figure 24.  Histogram  of  raw  water fiber  length data (X  axis  in micron scale).

-------
                                  SECTION 6

           COMPARISON OF NARROW AND THICKER FIBERS FOR COMBINED

                     BEFORE AND AFTER AC PIPE SAMPLES

     Each number, letter or symbol within the frequency diagram of Figure 25
indicates the number of fibers (of combined before and after AC pipe samples)
with a specific fiber diameter and length.  Since an asterisk represents the
position of thirty-five or more fibers, Figure 25 indicates that many of the
narrowest fibers also seem to be fairly short.  The possible existence of two
distribution subgroups, (as shown in Figure 15) led to the comparison of
narrow with the wide fibers with respect to their fiber length distributions.
As indicated in Figure 26, the bulk of pooled before and after AC pipe data
seemed to consist of narrow fibers (n = 337) 0.03 microns in width.

     As shown in Figure 27, there seems to be a considerable difference
between the fiber lengths of the narrowest in comparison to wider fibers.
This comparison is made with the combined fiber data from before and after
AC pipe.  These studies, which considered the narrowest and wider fibers
separately, tended to yield comparisons with high levels of statistical
significance.
                                     33

-------
     VIEW/EDIT DATA

CTRL



1    GET NEW DATA

2  ++VIEV/EDIT DATA

3    MODIFY WEIGHTS

4    CHANGGR LAMBDA

5    LINEAR REGRESSION

6    PLOT PDE CONTOURS

7    TRANSFORMATION


B    EXIT TO UNIVAR

9    X & Y RANGE FACTORS


A    PLOT FULLSCREEN

B    EXPAND PLOT SCALE

C    RESET PLOT SCALE

D    EDIT DATA POINTS

E    PLOT HSTGRM(X)

F    RESTORE ORIC DATA

C    UNIVAR OF Y

H    QUIT & EXIT
10 100 ' *O










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              KPTS • 4W OF
                                 SPECIFY UP TO 4 INTERVALS FOR DEFINING A GROUP OR FOR
                                 SPECIFICATION OF INCOMPLETE DATA.

                             INTERVAL    X (LEFT)     X  (RIGHT)      Y  (BOTH)      Y  (TOP)

                                1       0.87SOOE-02     0.04000        -.90000        10.100
                                                                    0.22135
    Figure  25.    Frequency  diagram  showing  fiber diameter  against fiber  length.

-------
Xn
     VIEW/EDIT; DATA

CTRL



1    GET NEW DATA

2  -H-VIEW/ED1T DATA

3    MODIFY WEIGHTS

4    CHANGE LAMBDA

5    LINEAR REGRESSION

6    PLOT PDE CONTOURS

7    TRANSFORMATION

8    EXIT TO UNIVAR

9    X & Y RANGE FACTORS

A    PLOT FULLSCREEN

B    EXPAND PLOT SCALE ,

C    RESET PLOT SCALE

D    EDIT DATA POINTS


E    PLOT HSTGRM(X)

F    RESTORE ORIC DATA

G    UNIVAR OF Y


H   /QUIT & EXIT
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                                                                  WtS
                                                                           87 DATA POINTS IN GROUP,!,   337 IN CROUP 2

                                                                                         1 GO TO UNIVAR (-XHIT)
                                                                                         2 RESPECIFY  GROUPS
                              Figure  26.    Position of frequency  diagram during  the separation  process.

-------
OJ

UNIVARIATE
CTRL

1

2
3
4


5
6

7
8
9


A

I

C

D


E

F
G







GET NEW DATA
1 7S»t«
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTCRAM
CHOOSE AB


RESET AB
PROB. DENSITY , 5,,,,

•H-CUM. CURVE
R(X) FCTN
SVIVAL CURVE


LOG XFORM

LKH SVIVAL « ZS«««

HEUR. SVIVAL

CUM. HAZARD


SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
TTTTTTTTTnTTBWHxJx3ffi6wwDwWOnA**w
.T'T v*
T"" X
j******
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' x"
I X
X
T
X
T X
T X
X
T X
T x
X
t
X

T X
X
T
X
T X
X
T
X
t X
X
'x
. 	 i 	 1 	 — 	 1
QUIT t EXIT (.7001 1 «•>«• 46110 68010 90000
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL CRP(T)
SAMPLE 87 337
EST.MU 1.3440 0.90400
EST.SGMA 0.77291 0.54632
EST.MAX 0.46868 0.67530
MEDIAN 1.6000 1.2000
                                                                     MAX Dir - 0.26971
                                                                 SIC. PT (0.05) -  .16355
                      Figure  27.  Comparison of cumulative fiber  length data for  narrow and
                                                wide fibers (T - narrow;  X - wide).

-------
                                    SECTION 7

                    COMPARISON OF BEFORE AND AFTER AC PIPE

                            FOR NARROW FIBER GROUP


       Because highly statistically significant results will be described  in
  this  section,  care was taken to protect against incorrect  inference.
  Hence  both  transformed and  smoothed  displays  were utilized.   The  same  find-
  ing,  that fibers  tended to  be  shorter before  than after  AC pipe,  was ob-
  tained in all  instances.

      A nonparametric estimation smoothing technique described  in  (2] Section
 5 was used to  obtain Figure  29  using  the same data utilized to obtain Figure
 28.  in both figures there is somewhat  less of  the ambiguous crossover ten-
 dency of the estimated  population cumulatives shown in Figure 18.  In essence
 Figures 28 and 18 would have been identical were it not for the removal of
 thicker fibers as a preliminary to the construction of Figure 28.   However,
 much more striking results were obtained by using a logarithmic transforma-
 tion as previously described in Section 2.

      After using the logarithm of fiber length in place of  fiber  length
 Plotted on an arithmetic scale  the degree of distribution separation and  the
 cause  of  the  ambiguous  cumulative crossover  tendency was  clearly brought  into
 focus  in  Figure 30 and  particularly 31.   Before  AC pipe narrow  fibers tended
 to  be  significantly shorter  than after AC pipe fibers,  which substantiates a
 result  first  shown in Figure  5.

     The histograms  shown  in  Figure 32 and 33 demonstrate that although
before AC pipe  fibers tend in general  to  be shorter than after AC  pipe
fibers, a few,  in  this  case about four before AC pipe fibers, are  longer
than their after AC pipe counterparts.  This slight aberration is also
illustrated by  the upward trend of the right tail of the leftmost curve
shown in Figure 31.
                                     37

-------
                                FlBtR  Ifc'NGTh


UNIVARIATE

CTRL

1

2
3

4


5
6


7
8
£
A

B

C
D

E

F

G







GET NEW DATA
0 TSIOt
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTGRAM

CHOOSE AB


RESET AB
PROB. DENSITY
0 5*000

++CUM. CURVE
R(X) FCTH
SVIVAL CURVE
LOG XFORM

LKH SVIVAL • J5»»o

HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
0 0
•yyywtnnrinonr^vvw KMYI'¥YyyyKyYYT^¥V*^HHHiuUwt*

,i^\*r

T X
T X

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X
T
X
f *
X
'x
t *
X
X
• * 	 1 	
QUIT i EXIT , j,,1,, j .,,„, « 6000 6 8000
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 233 104
EST.MU 1.0800 0.72800
EST.SGHA 0.54112 0.44742
EST.MAX 0.69943 0.83712
MEDIAN 1.2000 1.000
                                                   MAX DIF - 0.26500
                                              SIC. PT (0.05) -  .16038
                                                                           9 0000
Figure 28.   Comparison of cumulative fiber length data  before and after A/C  pipe for
                       the narrowest fiber group (X axis scaled in microns).

-------
vO

UNIVARIATE
CTRL


1

2
3

4

5

6
7
8

9

A

B

C

D
E

F
0










GET NEW DATA
« 75099
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTURAM

CHOOSE AB

RESET AB

PROB. DENSITY ^ S|||((|
•H-CI1M. CURVE
R(X) FCTN

SVIVAI. CURVE

LOO XFORM

LKH SVIVAI, 1 75«0»

HEUR. SVIVAL

CUM. HAZAKD
SVt. DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
x*«*«^nn^ :"" - ' "' WWrHM^"""" " " '""" ' '
.ff^5''1"""""""
X
T X
/ *
T X
I X
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1 «

1 X

1 X

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I «
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X
X
III
QUIT 4 EXIT , 7n70, 3 ^ofti) 4 r.nno 6 anno q nnnn
PARAMETERS KXCL ORP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 213 104
EST.MU 1 .08OO 0.81600
EST.HOMA 0.65790 0.65316
EST.MAX (1.57700 0.60065
MEDIAN 1.2000 1.0000
MAX. DIP • 0.20610
SIC. PT ((1.05) • .1603R
               Figure  29.   Comparison of cumulative fiber length data before and after A/C pipe for
                 the narrowest  fiber group using a smoothing technique (X axis scaled in microns).

-------



CTRL

1

2
3
4
*
6

UNIVARIATE




GET NEW DATA

VIEW/EDIT DATA ' /?"°"
HSTCRAM
CHOOSE AB
RESET AB
PROB. DENSITY
e soneo
7 ++C1IM. CURVE
ft

9

A

B


C


D

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F
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R(X) FCTM

SVIVAL CURVE

1.00 XFORM

1 KH SVI VAI
0 25&fl«

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EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
QUIT & EXIT 0 " J

,,**'"**
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PARAMETERS F.XCI. GRP(X) INCI. CRP( D
SAMPLE 233 |04
• F.ST.Mll 0.29389 -.20097
EST.SCMA O.A09&8 0.5929ft
EST.MAX 0. 65405 O.(h?072
MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
                                                       MAX DIF  -  0.22195
                                                   SIC. PTtO.O1))  -   .1603B
Figure 30.   Comparison of cumulative log fiber length data befor* and  after A/C
              pipe for the narrowest fiber group (X  axis in log amicron  scale).

-------
     UNIVARIATE


 CTRL


 1    GET NEW DATA

 2    VIEW/EDIT DATA

 3    HSTGRAH

 4    CHOOSE AB

 5    RESET AB

 6  4-fpROB. DENSITY

 7    CUM. CURVE

 8    R(X) FCTN

 9    SVIVAL CURVE

 A    LOG XFORM

 B    IJCH SVIVAI.

 C    HF.UR. SVIVAL

 P    CUM. HAZARD

 r.    SVL DENSITY

 F    EXIT SVL  TO UNIVAR

G   QUIT *  EXIT








1 49154









• 32792










1 I63SI








0 t
-1 6«
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,' I X X
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PARAMETERS EXCI. GRP(X) INCI, fTRP(T)
SAMPLE 213 104
EST.Mll 0.29389 -.20097
EST.SOMA 0.60966 0.59296
EST.MAX 0.65405 0.63072
MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
                                                                                     ,11'"""
                                                             VAl.tlE OF T -  0.9409
Figure 31.   Comparison  of  estimated  fiber size  population density  curves of  fiber
                length A/C pipe for narrowest fiber Kroup  (X axis in  nicron scale).

-------
     UNIVARJATE



CTRL


I    GET NEW  DATA

2    VIEW/EDIT DATA

3  ++HSTGRM1

4    CHOOSE AB

5    RESET AB

6    PROB. DENSITY

7    CUM. CURVE

8    R(X) FCTN

9    SVIVAL CURVE

A    LOG XFORM

B    LKH SVIVAL

C    HEUR. SVIVAL

D    CUM. HAZARD

E    SVL DENSITY

F    EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR

C    QUIT t, EXIT
                      -I.SM  -1  131   - 7S?9  - 3/23   0 8393E-Cff 3891   0 7597
                                                                    1 150
                                                                          1531
                                .9133  -.5676  - I8I9  0 I987  0.5791   0.9601   1.311   1  721

                                  PARAMETERS         EXCL GRP(X)        INCL GRP(T)
    NO. OF INTERVAL - 20
SAMPLE
EST.MU
EST.SGMA
ESTVMAX
H En I AN
233
0.29389
-0.60966
0.65405
0.1R232
104
-.20097
0.59296
0.63072
0.0
Figure 32.   Histogram of fiber length  data for  narrowest  fiber  group  after
                                 A/C  pipe (X axis  in  log micron scale).

-------
UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1 GET NEW DATA
2 VIEW/EDIT DATA
3 -H-HSTCRAM
4 CHOOSE AB
5 RESET AB
6 PROB. DENSITY
7 CUM. CURVE
8 R(X) FCTN
9 SVIVAL CURVE
A LOG XFORM
1 LKH SVIVAL
C HEUR. SVIVAL
D CUM. HAZARD
E SVL DENS in
F EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR 1 1
C QUIT t EXIT ., 5M .









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1 134 - 7529 - 3723 t 8393E-II 3*91 1.7697 1 151 1 531 1 912
-1 334 - 9433 - 56% - 1819 0 19B7 I S794 t 96* 1 I 341 1 771 2 102

NO. Or INTERVAL - 20
PARAMETERS EXCL CRPU) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 233 104
EST.MU 0.29389 -.20097
EST.SCMA 0.60966 0.59296
EST.MAJt 0.65405 0.63072
MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
Figure 33.  Histogram of fiber length data for narrowest fiber group before
                         A/C pipe (X axis in log micron scale).

-------
                                 SECTION 8

               COMPARISON OF BEFORE AND AFTER AC PIPE SAMPLES

                         FOR THE WIDER FIBER GROUP

     There were only eighty-seven fibers which were not members of the narrow-
est fiber group described in the last section.  Therefore, the fact that the
fiber length distributions for these wider fibers were not significantly dif-
different before and after AC pipe does not necessarily imply that there is
not a length distribution difference between the two groups of wider fibers.

     Figure 34, when compared with either Figure 28 or 29, demonstrates that
there is far less observable difference, before and after AC pipe, within
the wider fiber group than within the narrowest fiber group.  This finding
may of course be attributed to the smaller sample sizes available for the
wider fiber group.  In fact when one uses a log transform, a shift in size,
similar to that observed in Figure 29, is apparent.  (Of course,  since a
transformation does not affect the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the observed
difference is still not statistically significant).
                                    44

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CTRL
1
2
3
4
5
6

1 . OOVO
UNIVARIATE


GET NEW DATA
1 rstlt
VIEW/EDIT DATA
HSTGRAM
CHOOSE AB
RESET AR
PROB. DENSITY
I stitn
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8

9

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SVIVAI. CURVE

ijnc xroRx

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CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
QUIT 4 EXIT " '
1 ?•"
ri ii r i nil n i T 1 1 ( i n 1 1 it ij |
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1 II
T
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PARAMETERS FJfCI. KRP(X) INCI. CHP(T)
SAMPLE 54 31
F.ST.Mtl 1.4120 1.3440
EST.SCMA 0.70449 1.1423
P.ST.MAX 0.51531 0.31596
MEDIAN 1.8000 1.5000
                                                           MAX. DIF - O.15544
                                                       Sin. FT (0.05) -  .30050
Figure 34.  Comparison of cumulative  fiber  length data before  and  after A/C pipe  for the wider
                        fiber group (X axis  in nicron scale; T  =  before; X - after).

-------

UNIVARIATE
CTRL
1

2
3
4

5

6

7

8

9

A

B

C

D

E
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G








GET NEW DATA
t 7S*M .
VIEW/EDIT DATA
RSTCRAH
CHOOSE AB

RESET AB

PROB. DENSITY , 5,,,,

++CUM. CURVE

R(X) FCTN

SVIVAL CURVE

LOG XFORM

IKK SVIVAL • 25**'

HEUR. SVIVAL

CUM. HAZARD

SVL DENSITY
EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
I t 1 	 	 	
^
/^
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QUIT * EXIT -| &o<)4 . ftS/77 1 39M9 1 2456
PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL RRP(T)
SAMPLE 54 33
EST.MU 0.48423 0.29389
EST.SGMA 0.59065 0.79918
EST.MAX 0.66294 0.49131
MEDIAN 0.58779 0.40547
MAX. DIF - 0.16075
S1G. PT (0.05) - .30050
Figure 35.  Comparison of cumulative fiber length data before and after A/C pipe  for the  wider
                     fiber group (X axis in log micron scale; T = before;  X = after).

-------
                                 SECTION 9

                RAW WATER AND COMBINED AFTER A/C PIPE FIBER

                     LENGTH COMPARISONS FOR THICK FIBERS
     To obtain further confirmation that before AC piped fibers had a
different length distribution than after AC piped fibers, the data described
in Figure 22 was divided into two subgroups.  Specifically the n = 233
narrowest out of the n = 287 total after AC pipe fibers and n = 271
narrowest out of the 318 total Crystal Springs raw water samples were
selected.

     The estimated cumulative shown in Figure 36 repeat, with an even higher
level of significance, the general pattern described in Section 5.  The
density estimates given in Figure 37 demonstrate that particular before
AC pipe short length fibers tend to be more common than their after AC
pipe counterparts.  This finding can be explored in somewhat more detail
by means of the histograms given in Figures 38 and 39.
                                     47

-------

UNIVARIATE
CTRL



1

2
3

4

S


6

7

8


9
A

B

C
D
E

F











CET NEW DATA

VIW/EDIT DATA ' 7S'"
HSTCRAM

CHOOSE AB

RESET AB


PROS. DENSITY
1 SIMO
•H-CUM. CURVE

R(X) FCTN


SVIVAL CURVE
I.OC XPORM

UH SVIVAL t ?s«M

HEUR. SVIVAL
CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY

EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
I • j
-..•. TTTTT-lllIinllTI]
-1 TTt T "^W|OtitW'if'Oc'A"'.£t*
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X
' X
' /
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-^dx*""

QUIT 4 EXIT T r • * 	 	
1 6I»H - W,IH 1 47m 1 57M
PARAMETERS EXCL GRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 233 271
EST.MU 0.26903 0.18572E-0]
EST.SCMA 0.61530 0.34404
EST.MAX 0.64837 1.1438
MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
                                                           MAX DIP - 0.29213
                                                       SIC. PT (0.05) -  .12150
Figure 36.   Comparisons of pooled  fiber length data after  A/C pipe and raw water  fiber length
                      data for the  narrow fiber ranges (X axis in log micron scale).        *

-------
                                              L£N&TjT





UNIVARIATE


CTRL
1

2

3

4

5
6
7

8

9
A

B

C

D
E


F

C






GET NEW DATA
1.85787
VIEW/EDIT DATA

HSTCRAM

CHOOSE AB

RF.SET AB
++PROB. DENSITY 1 S7I9I
CUM. CURVE

R(X) FCTN

SVIVAL CURVE
LOG XFORM

LKH SVIVAL * 3"5"*

HFUR. SVIVAL

CUM. HAZARD
SVL DENSITY


EXIT SVL TO UNIVAR
II
i
T '

I
T

T
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tl
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x X
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PARAMETERS EXCL CRP(X) INCL GRP(T)
SAMPLE 233 271
F.ST.MU 0.2690J 0.18572E-01
EST.SCMA 0.61530 0.34404
EST.MAX 0.64837 1.1438
MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
                                                       VALUE OF T " 5.73B9
Figure 37.  Comparison of estimated  population density curves for pooled fiber length data  after
A/C pipe and raw water fiber  length  data  for the  narrow fiber ranges (X axis in log micron  scale)

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SAMPLE 233 271
EST.MU 0.26903 0.18572E-01
EST.SGHA 0.61530 0.34404
EST.MAX 0.64837 1.1438




MEDIAN 0.18232 0.0
          Figure 38.
Histogram of  narrow fiber length data after  A/c  pipe (X axis in log micron  scale)

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                                  SECTION 10

                 RAW WATER AND COMBINED AFTER A/C PIPE FIBER

                      LENGTH COMPARISONS FOR THICK FIBERS
     As shown by the fiber length cumulative given in Figure 40, there was
a non-statistically significant tendency for naturally occurring water to
have shorter fibers than after AC piped water, when only wide fibers were
considered.

     Note that the sample sizes n = 54 and n = 47 given after the word SAMPLE
at the bottom of Figure 40, plus the n = 233 and n = 271 sample sizes of Fig-
ure 36 add respectively to n = 287 and n = 318, the sample sizes listed in
Figure 22.
                                     52

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EST.SGMA 0.70349 0.75733
EST.MAX 0.51816 0.52220
MEDIAN 1.8000 1.4000
HAX DIP - 0.20690
SIC. PT (0.05) - .27130
Figure 40.  Comparison of wide fiber length data after A/C pipe and  wide  fiber  length data
                            data from raw water (X axis in micron scale).

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                                SECTION 11

                                DISCUSSION


     The overall conclusions suggested by our study are as follows:

     a)  There seems to be very little difference between fiber length
         distributions before and after water treatment at one site.

     b)  Before AC pipe samples tend to have shorter fibers than after
         AC piped samples.

     c)  The above difference is more noticeable when the narrow fiber
         subgroups are considered apart from their wider fiber counter-
         parts.

     There are several possible hypotheses concerning these conclusions.  The
most reasonable hypothesis Is that fibers coming from the AC pipe interior
are of the commercial variety of asbestos and these fibers tend to be
longer than the fibers found in the natural water around San Francisco.
An alternate,  less plausible argument could be made.  Consider that larger
bundles of fibers may tend to fragment or chip as they pass through AC pipe.
In the electron microscope fiber measurement process one chunky "fiber" was
observed which might have been composed of a large number of narrower
fibers.  Such a fiber could easily leave a trail of fragments along its
path through a long section of pipe.

     As shown in Figures 41 and 42 there is a slight, but highly statis-
tically significant positive association between fiber length and width.
(Note the t value of 7.009 at the bottom of Figure 42).  Now since a wider
particle would also tend to contain long fibers, the fragments left during
its passage through a long section of pipe would tend to be longer than
the average length of fiber entering the pipe.
                                      54

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                Figure  41.   Frequency  diagram of  diameter and length for combined  samples  before  A/C  pipe
                                            (maximum sample size  that  can  be  analyzed using  GRAFSTAT).

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                                                                         T STATISTIC  •  7.560
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               Figure  42.   Plot  of  linear regression  for  data shown in Figure 40 (o =  .05 confidence  band),

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                                REFERENCES
1.   Kanarek, M.S.  Asbestos in Drinking Water and Cancer Incidence.
     Ph.D. Thesis, University of California,  Berkeley,  California,  1978.
     377 pp.

2.   Tarter, M.E. and R.A. Kronraal.  An Introduction to the Impleraenta-
     and Theory of Nonpararaetric Density Estimation.  The American  Stat-
     istician 30(3):105-112, 1976.

3.   Siegel, S.  Nonpararaetric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences,
     McGraw-Hill, New York, New York 1956.

4.   Tarter, M.E., E. 0. Rigsbee and J.T. Wong.  Interactive Editing  of
     Biomedical Data.  Computer Programs in Bioraedicine, 6:117-123, 1976.

5.   Tarter, M.E.  Implementation of Harmonic Data Analysis Procedures.
     In:  Proceedings of the Computer Science and Statistics: Eleventh
     Annual Symposium on the Interface, Durham, North Carolina,  1978.
     pp. 234-239.
                                     57

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                                    TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                             (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
 1. REPORT NO.
 EPA-600/1-79-020
                                                             3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO,
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Data Analysis  of Drinking Water Asbestos Fiber Size
             5. REPORT DATE
                May 1979 issuing date
                                                            6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Michael E. Tarter
                                                            8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Department of Biomedical and Environmental Health Science
University of California
Berkeley, California 94720
              10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
              s       614B(d)
              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

              Order No. CA-7-3036-J-I
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
 Health Effects Research Laboratory-Cincinnati, Ohio
 Office of Research  and Development
 U.S.  Environmental  Protection agency
 Cincinnati, Ohio  45268
              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
              	Final 8/16/77-6/30/78	
              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                 EPA/600/10
 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
 16. ABSTRACT
      A statistical  study of asbestos  fiber size characteristics was conducted  using
 data obtained from  a  variety of San Francisco Bay Area water systems.  Particular
 emphasis was placed on comparison of  fiber length distributions for samples collected
 from pre and post asbestos cement (AC)  pipe systems.  Significant differences  were
 detected between the  fiber size distributions in samples  of  raw water and water  col-
 lected after a length of AC pipe.  Little  difference was  detected between the  fiber
 size distributions  of a raw water sample and a treated water sample.  It was also
 shown that before and after AC pipe,  fibers in the water  differed most significantly
 in the length distributions of narrow fibers.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C.  COSATI Held/Group
Asbestos,  Serpentine, Potable water
 Health Effects
06 F
 8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release  to  Public
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
 Unclassified
                                               20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
                                                Unclassified
  10. OF PAGES
       68
                                                                           22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)
                                             58
                                                       U. S. GOVttNMENT PRINTING OfFICE: 1979-657-060/1665 Region No. 5m

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