AQUATIC EFFECTS RESEARCH PROGRAM

                   OVERVIEW
              National Surface Water Survey
               Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I
                  Synoptic Chemistry
                 Status and Extent

-------
DON No. 86-258-012-12-13
Work Assignment No. 12
EPA Contract No. 68-01-7288
                             AN OVERVIEW OF THE
                        NATIONAL SURFACE MATER SURVEY
                        EASTERN LAKE SURVEY - PHASE I
                             SYNOPTIC CHEMISTRY
              A Contribution to the National Acid Precipitation
                             Assessment Program
                                Prepared for:

                            Dr. Rick A. Linthurst
                 Director, Aquatic Effects Research Program
                    U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
                 Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory
                Research Triangle Park, North Carolina  27711
                                Prepared by:

                               Penelope Kellar
                             Radian Corporation
                            3200 Progress Center
                Research Triangle Park, North Carolina  27709
                               September 1986

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
                                   NOTICE


     The information described in this document has been funded as a part of
the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program by the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
     This document has been subjected to the Agency's administrative review
and approved for distribution.  Mention of trade names or commercial
products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
                                      ii

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
                                   PREFACE
     This document is a part of a larger overview document describing the
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's Aquatic Effects Research Program.
The Eastern Lake Survey-Phase I (Synoptic Chemistry), described here, is the
first phase of one of several regionalized integrative studies being
conducted in areas of the United States in which surface waters are
potentially sensitive to change as a result of acidic deposition.  The
objectives of these surveys are to quantify and/or define within these
potentially sensitive areas:  (1) the present chemical status of surface
waters in the United States, (2) the temporal and spatial variability of
surface waters, (3) the biological resources associated with these surface
waters, (4) terrestrial factors controlling surface water response,  and
(5) future trends  in surface water chemistry and biology.

     For technical information about the Eastern Lake Survey contact:

                    Dr. D. H. Landers, Technical Director
                    Eastern Lake Survey
                    U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
                    Environmental Research Laboratory
                    200 S.W. 35th Street
                    Con/all is, Oregon  97333

     For information about  other programs within the Aquatic Effects
Research Program,  contact:

                    Dr. R.  A.  Linthurst, Director
                    Aquatic Effects  Research Program
                    U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
                    Environmental Monitoring Systems  Laboratory
                    Mail  Drop  -  39
                    Research Triangle  Park,  North Carolina   27711
                                      iii

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
                                  CONTENTS


                                                                     Page

Notice 	   i i

Preface 	  i i i

Figures 	    v

Tab!es 	   vi

Introduction  	     1

Approach  	     5
     Sampling Design  	     5
     Vari ables Selected  for Analysi s  	    14
     Analytical Methods  	    16
     Quality  Assurance Program  	    16

Implementation  	    24
     Base Site Operations  	    24
     Analytical Laboratory Operations	    26

Resul ts  	    27
     Number of  Lakes  Sampled  	    27
     Population Estimates  	    27

Use of Eastern  Lake Survey -  Phase I  Data by Other Projects 	    38

References 	:	    39
                                        iv

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
                                   FIGURES

Number                                                               Page

  1  Geographic regions in which the Eastern Lake Survey -
       Phase I was conducted 	   6

  2  Northeastern subregions and alkalinity map classes,
       Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I 	   8

  3  Upper midwestern subregions and alkalinity map classes,
       Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I 	   9

  4  Southeastern subregions and alkalinity map classes,
       Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I 	   10

  5  Percentage of total  samples analyzed for quality  assurance
       in the Eastern Lake Survey  -  Phase I  	   18

  6  Data management approach  for  the  Eastern Lake  Survey -
       Phase  I  	   22

  7  Cumulative frequency distributions  for acid  neutralizing
       capacity for the  population of  lakes >4  ha and  <2000  ha in
       two  regions and two  subregions  sampled  in  fall, 1984  during
       Phase  I of the  Eastern  Lake Survey 	   30

  8  Cumulative frequency distributions  for pH  for the
       population of lakes  >4  ha  and <2000  ha  in  two  regions
       and  two  subregions sampled  in Tall,  1984 during Phase I of
       the  Eastern  Lake  Survey 	   32

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
                                   TABLES

Number                                                               Page

  1  Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I Regions and Subregions 	  11

  2  Summary of Variables Measured in the Eastern Lake Survey -
       Phase I 	  15

  3  Number of Lakes Sampled within Each Subregion during
       the Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I 	  28

  4  Number of Lakes Sampled within Each State during
       the Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I 	  29

  5  Estimated Total Number of Lakes (>4 ha and <2000 ha), and
       Number and Percentage of Lakes with Selected Values of
       pH and ANC from Phase I of the Eastern Lake Survey  	  33

  6  Estimated Total Number of Lakes (>4 ha and <2000 ha), and
       Number and Percentage of Lakes with Selected Values of  Four
       Key Variables from Phase I of the Eastern  Lake Survey  	  34
                                       vi

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
                                INTRODUCTION
     The first phase of the National  Surface Water Survey (NSWS)  was
implemented in fall  1984 with Phase I of the Eastern Lake Survey  (ELS-I),
a synoptic chemical  survey of 1,798 lakes in the eastern United States.   The
NSWS, which includes both lakes and streams, is part of the National  Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP).  One of the responsibilities of
NAPAP is to assess the extent and severity of the risk that acidic
deposition poses to aquatic resources within the United States.  The NSWS
was initiated by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)  when it
became apparent that existing data could not be used quantitatively to
assess the present chemical and biological status of surface waters in the
United States.
     The ELS-I was designed to reduce the uncertainty in making regional
scale assessments based on existing data by:

     (1)  providing data from a subset of lakes statistically  selected
          from the population of lakes within  a region  as a whole;
     (2)  using standardized methods to  collect chemical data;
     (3)  measuring a  complete set of variables thought  to influence or
          be  influenced by surface water acidification;
     (4)  providing data that can be used statistically to investigate
          relationships among chemical variables  on  a regional basis; and
     (5)  providing reliable estimates of the  chemical  status  of  lakes
          within a region of Interest.

     Environmental data collection activities,  conducted or sponsored by
EPA, must be  based on  a program which ensures  that  the  resulting  data are  of
known quality and are  suitable for the purpose for  which they  are intended.
These requirements were incorporated into the  ELS-I  by: clearly  defining

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
ELS-I objectives; identifying intended uses and users  of the  data;
developing an overall conceptual  and practical  approach to meeting  the
objectives; developing an appropriate survey design;  identifying the
quality of data needed; developing analytical protocols and quality
assurance/quality control (QA/QC) procedures; testing  the approach
through a "pilot" or feasibility study; and revising the approach or
methods as needed.
     The ELS-I was designed to provide statistically comparable data that
could be extrapolated with a known degree of confidence to regional scales.
The primary objectives of the ELS-I were to determine:

     (1)  the percentage (by number and area) and location of lakes that are
          acidic  in  potentially  sensitive regions of the eastern United
          States;
     (2)  the percentage (by number and area) and location of lakes that
          have low acid neutralizing capacity in potentially sensitive
          regions of the eastern United States; and
     (3)  the chemical characteristics of lake populations in potentially
          sensitive  regions of the eastern United States  and to provide a
          data base  for  selecting lakes for  future studies.

     The data generated  by the Survey were  intended to be  used  to  assess the
present chemical  status  and extent of  lakes  potentially sensitive  to  acidic
deposition.  The conceptual  approach  to the  Survey emphasized that the data
would not  be used to attribute observed conditions to  acidic deposition or
to  any other cause.   Rather,  the Survey's  intent was  to provide information
for development  of correlative,  not  cause-and-effect,  relationships.
Presumably,  not  all  lakes  have  been  affected by  acidic deposition; this
suggests  that  the best approach  to  reducing the  uncertainty  relative  to
regional  scale  effects is  to identify and  characterize the subset  of  lakes
that is  sensitive to acidic  deposition.  Thus,  the  ELS-I was designed to
provide  a geographically extensive  data base of adequate quality to
estimate with  known  confidence  the  number  of acidic and potentially
 sensitive lakes, identify where they are located and describe their present
 chemical  status.

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
     The regional characterization approach developed for the ELS-I  allows
many lakes in a large number of geographic regions to be characterized  on
the basis of a subset of lakes within each region.  In this synoptic
("snap-shot") approach, the minimum number of samples from each lake is
collected in order to maximize the number of lakes that can be sampled.
Because the chemistry of lakes varies seasonally, consideration of the
optimal period for sampling was a major part of the Survey design.
     To extrapolate the data collected from a subset of systems to the  total
lake population of interest requires that a statistically unbiased method of
lake selection be used.  The lake selection procedure developed for the
ELS-I ensured that each lake to be sampled in a particular geographic region
had an equal probability of being included in the Survey.
     The quality of the data needed to make regional  scale assessments was
defined before the Survey was  implemented.  Because of  the scope  of the
project, eight base sites and  four analytical laboratories were employed to
collect and  analyze data.  To  ensure that data from each  base  site and
laboratory were  comparable, standardized methods  for  sampling  and analysis
               1 2
were developed.     The detailed  quality assurance plan developed for  the
Survey guided the collection of data and provided the basis  for assessing
its quality  in terms  of accuracy, precision, bias, completeness and
comparability.
     The complexity and scope  of  the ELS-I required  that  the project design
be tested before initiating the full-scale sampling  effort.  To identify
unforeseen problems  in the conceptual  approach,  two  feasibility ("pilot")
studies were conducted in the  northeastern United States  during January and
May, 1984.   Sixty lakes were  sampled during the  winter pilot study  and 113
during the spring pilot study.  The  objectives of both studies were to test
and evaluate sample  site  selection,  sampling and analytical  methods, field
base operations, sample shipping  and tracking  procedures, quality assurance
and quality  control,  and  data  management.   Deficiencies identified  in  the
pilot  studies were corrected  for  the full  Survey.
     Planning  for the ELS-I  began in October  1983.   The research  plan  for
the NSWS  was initially reviewed late in 1983  by  100 scientists with
                                     A
expertise in various  areas  of study.    Fifty scientists discussed the

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
plan during a workshop held in December; and suggested modifications were
incorporated by March 1984.  The research plan was submitted to members of
the American Statistical Association (ASA) for review in June 1984; a final
ASA review was conducted in October.  The comments and responses from this
latter review appeared in the American Statistician.
     The geographically extensive data base provided by the ELS-I serves as
the basis for future studies within the NSWS.  Phase II is a study of the
temporal and spatial variability in lake water chemistry and will provide
the means to evaluate the degree to which the samples taken in Phase I
represent the chemical status of lakes during other seasons of the year.
The ELS-I data will also be used to develop the future Long-Term Monitoring
Project (LTM), designed to determine long-term trends in the chemical status
of surface waters; currently monitored  sites as well as those  sampled during
the NSWS will be evaluated for  inclusion  in this project.  The approach  used
in the ELS-I is summarized below.

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
                                  APPROACH
SAMPLING DESIGN
Identification of Study Area
     Although the NSWS is a nationwide effort,  many areas in the United
States are not likely to contain lakes that are presently acidic or at risk
of becoming so (primarily because of geologic factors that buffer acidic
inputs).  Regions containing lakes that might be susceptible to change,
i.e., have minimal or low capacity to neutralize acidic inputs, were
delineated by Omernik and Powers using historical alkalinity  data.   Three
geographic regions (Figure 1) in the eastern United States were chosen for
study during the ELS-I:  the Northeast (Region 1), the Upper Midwest (Region
2) and the Southeast (Region 3).  These regions are estimated to contain
about 95 percent of the lakes in the eastern United States which have
alkalinity concentrations <400 ueq L"  .
Lake Selection
     Selection of the population of lakes for  inclusion  in the ELS-I was a
stepwise process that included:

      (1)   identifying homogeneous geographic areas  (subregions) within  the
           three  regions;
      (2)   differentiating,  on the basis of  alkalinity  data,  areas  within
           subregions expected to contain  lakes within  one  of three
           alkalinity classes (alkalinity  map classes);  and
      (3)   selecting lakes  from  each of the  alkalinity  map  classes  for
           sampling, using  a systematic procedure beginning with  a  random
           starting point.
  The  terms  alkalinity  and  acid  neutralizing  capacity (ANC)  have been used
 interchangeably  to  mean  the  amount  of acid a surface water  can assimilate
 (or neutralize)  before it  becomes acidic.  Alkalinity is a  component of ANC
 and,  therefore,  ANC is the more correctly used term to describe total
 neutralizing  capacity.

-------
                                                   September  29,  1986
               Upper Midwest
                   Subregion Boundary
Figure  1.   Geographic regions  in which the  Eastern Lake
            Survey - Phase  I  was conducted.

-------
                                                          September 29, 1986
Because the statistical  design used in lake selection  has  different  levels
(or strata; steps 1 and  2) and because it employs a systematic selection
procedure (step 3), it is referred to as a "systematic,  stratified design
with a random start."  Each level  of the design -- region, subregion,  and
alkalinity map class --  is termed  a "stratum."
     Regions, subregions and alkalinity map classes (Figures 2-4)  were
delineated on 1:250,000-scale U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) maps.
Boundaries of subregions were drawn on the basis of the similarities of
areas within regions with respect  to surrounding physical  geography,
land-use characteristics and available water quality information.   The names
of the delineated subregions are listed in Table 1.  Alkalinity map classes
                                             789
were developed from existing alkalinity data.   '   Three classes  of
alkalinity were chosen:   <100 ueq L  , 100-200 ueq L   and >200 ueq L"1.
These concentrations were chosen because there is evidence to suggest that
biological effects of acidification become apparent in the range of
10-90 ueq L" , and also because 200 ueq L   has been used as the boundary
distinguishing lakes that are potentially sensitive to acidic deposition
from those that might be  insensitive.
     Each lake within the alkalinity map classes was systematically assigned
a unique identification number.  The total number of lakes so designated
represented  the  "map population" of lakes.  Because 1:250,000-scale USGS
maps inconsistently show  lakes  smaller than 4 hectares, these lakes
generally were not included  in  the map population or, consequently, in the
Survey.  Lake identification numbers were entered into a  computer file in
numerical order.  The number of lakes within  each alkalinity map  class was
then divided by  the number of lakes to be  sampled to obtain a number  (k).  A
sample size  of 50 was considered  sufficient to characterize the population
of lakes within  each alkalinity map class.  The  first sample  lake was  then
selected at  random between 1  and  k; thereafter,  every kth lake was  selected.
This procedure ensured  that  each  lake within  an  alkalinity map class  had  an
equal  probability  of being selected  for  sampling;  thus, this  subset of lakes
is referred  to as  the "probability sample."
     The selected  lakes were examined on larger  scale USGS maps to  exclude
those  that were  of "non-interest"  to  the Survey  or that  proved  to be
"non-lakes."  Examples  of these exclusion categories  include  flowing water,

-------
                                                             September 29,  1986
 Alkalinity Map Classes
      (^eq L")
T] < 100

T] 100-200

T] >200

—  Subregion Boundary
                                                     Southern New England (1D)
  Figure 2.   Northeastern  subregions  and alkalinity map classes,
              Eastern  Lake  Survey -  Phase I.
                                      8

-------
                                                                        September 29,  1986
                        ^>>-is=»>

  Northeastern Minnesota (2A)     1
              \      3
        ^'2
                                                              Alkalinity Map Classes
                                                                    U/eq L")
                                                             CD < 100
                                                             [Til 00-200
                                                             [T)>200
                                                             •— Subregion Boundary
Upper Great Lakes Area (2D)

                                                     Upper Peninsula of Michigan (2B)
                                Northcentral Wisconsin (2C)
         Figure  3.   Upper  midwestern  subregions  and  alkalinity map  classes,
                      Eastern Lake Survey  -  Phase  I.

-------
                                                        September 29, 1986
                              r
           T
                                 Southern Blue Ridge (3A)
Figure 4.  Southeastern subregions and  alkalinity map classes,
           Eastern  Lake Survey - Phase  I.
                                  10

-------
                                                     September 29,  1986
TABLE 1.  EASTERN LAKE SURVEY - PHASE I REGIONS AND SUBREGIONS
         Region
                        Subreglon
  Code
Name
Code
Name
          Northeast
          Upper Midwest
           Southeast
              1A    Adirondacks
              IB    Poconos/Catskills
              1C    Central New England
              ID    Southern New England
              IE    Maine

              2A    Northeastern Minnesota
              2B    Upper  Peninsula of Michigan
              2C    Northcentral Wisconsin
              2D    Upper  Great Lakes Area

              3A    Southern Blue Ridge
              3B    Florida
                                  11

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
marshes, and lakes surrounded by urban,  industrial,  or agricultural
development.  To maintain the desired sample size of at least  50  lakes  in
each alkalinity map class, the above process was repeated after eliminating
lakes in these exclusion categories.  Additional exclusion categories were
identified during field sampling activities; examples of these included
sites that were visited but were found to be dry, or to be streams,  and
lakes that were too shallow to permit collection of a sample free of debris
or sediment.
     The lakes remaining after elimination by map examination and field
sampling activities comprised the "target population" of lakes.  Some lakes
could not be visited due to weather conditions, denial of access  permission,
or because they were frozen.  Because these lakes could not be evaluated to
determine if they were in one of the exclusion categories, their target
status  could not be determined and thus, they represent incompleteness in
the  sample and cannot be  included or excluded from the target population.
The  equations developed for extrapolating the sample data to the target
population account for lakes of indeterminant target status.
     The criteria developed during map examination and field sampling
activities, and other criteria developed during  data analysis, collectively
identify the target population of lakes, which  is smaller than the map
population.  Conclusions  based on the Survey data can  be made only for those
lakes  included  in  the target  population.  Lakes smaller  than 4 hectares or
located in  heavily  industrialized areas, for example,  cannot be
characterized with  the  ELS-I  data.   The  flexibility  of the  sampling design
allows  estimates  to be  made for  any subset  of  lakes  within  the target
population  (e.g.,  the number of  shallow  lakes  or those with a  particular pH
or sulfate  concentration),  provided the  characteristics  of  that  subset are
explicitly  defined.
      Because  not  all  lakes within  each  stratum were sampled,  equations were
developed to  extrapolate the values measured in the sample  lakes to obtain
 estimated characteristics of the entire target population.   The  number of
 lakes  in the  target population within each  stratum differed;  thus each lake
 sampled represents a  different number of lakes 1n the target population.
 For example,  1f the target population size  was estimated to be 500 and
 50 lakes were sampled,  each sampled lake represented 10 target lakes.   For

                                       12

-------
                                                          September 29, 1986
an estimated target population of 1500 lakes  and a sample  size  of 50,  each
sampled lake represented 30 lakes.   Thus,  obtaining estimated
characteristics for the entire target population in a region or subregion
requires that the sample data be adjusted or "weighted" to account for
different estimated target population sizes.   These weights, which are
specific to each stratum, are applied to the sample values to obtain
estimated characteristics of all lakes in the target population.
Special Interest Lakes
     Other lakes, in addition to those chosen with the statistical design,
were sampled during the ELS-I primarily because of their importance to
programs initiated before the NSWS.  These "special interest" lakes included
those currently in the EPA Long-Term Monitoring Program, which also is a
part of NAPAP.  Others were included on the basis of recommendations by the
National Research Council's Acid Deposition Trends Committee and by various
state and federal agencies.  Because these lakes were not chosen by the
selection process discussed above, data collected from them were not used in
characterizing the target population of lakes.  Special interest lakes are
thus differentiated from the probability  sample lakes  selected by the
statistical design.
Sampling Period
     One of the  primary  goals  of the  ELS-I was  to  identify  those  lakes with
chemical characteristics that  are  "typical"  of  the  total  population of lakes
within  a region.   These  lakes  could  then  be  considered for  more  detailed,
long-term  study.   To  cover as  much area as  possible within  the regions of
 interest  (to  maximize spatial  coverage)  within  one season (to  minimize
 seasonal variability) each lake was  sampled in  the fall.   Fall was  chosen  as
 the best season  in which to sample because,  as  the upper  water layers of
 lakes  begin to cool,  temperature differences between the  top and bottom  are
 minimized.   As the water temperature becomes homogeneous  throughout the
 lake,  the  water layers begin to circulate and mix, eliminating most chemical
 differences which may have previously existed.   When this process,  commonly
 called "fall  turnover," is completed, the variability of chemistry within
                                       13

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
any one lake is expected to be less than the variability  between  any  two
lakes at that time.   The fall  sample thus serves as an "index"  sample which
can be related to the chemical status during the winter,  spring,  and  summer.
The relationship of fall chemistry to that of other seasons is  being
evaluated in Phase II of the National Lake Survey.

VARIABLES SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS

     Twenty-five physical and chemical variables (Table 2) were chosen for
analysis in the ELS-I.  The variables were selected on the basis of their
importance in developing chemical characterization of lakes from a regional
perspective.  The variables included those relating to the acid/base  status
of lakes:  pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), and dissolved inorganic
carbon, which can be used to  determine  if the lake water  is saturated with
respect to atmospheric  carbon dioxide.   Sulfate  and nitrate were measured
because they are often  the dominant  acidic anions  in acidic deposition.
Additional anions and such cations  as calcium and  magnesium were measured
not  only to aid in chemically describing lakes  but also to serve as  a
quality assurance check on the methods  used  in  their  analyses  (the sum of
cations theoretically equals  that  of anions).
     A number  of chemical  variables  important to biota were also included in
the  analyses.  These  "biologically-relevant11 chemical variables  include:
total  phosphorus, dissolved silica,  and ammonium,  all of  which are nutrient
sources.  Additionally,  total dissolved fluoride and  dissolved organic
carbon can  reduce the concentrations of potentially toxic forms  of aluminum
and  other metals  that can  be  detrimental to organisms.
      Some dissolved  organic carbon compounds impart  "true color" to  lake
water; these  organic acids can  dissociate into  organic  ions  and  hydrogen ion
and  thus  contribute  to  acidity.   Dissolved  silica  and total  aluminum
concentrations also  can be used as indicators  of the  amount  of "mineral
weathering" in the watershed, i.e., dissolution of chemical  compounds in the
 surrounding soils.   Weathering  is one of several processes that can
 contribute  to the neutralization of acidic inputs.
                                       14

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
TABLE 2.  SUMMARY OF VARIABLES MEASURED IN THE EASTERN LAKE SURVEY - PHASE Ia
Acid neutralizing capacity                        Magnesium, dissolved
Aluminum, extractable                             Manganese, dissolved
Aluminum, total                                   Nitrate, dissolved
Ammonium, dissolved                               pH
Carbon, dissolved inorganic                       Phosphorus, total
Carbon, dissolved organic                         Potassium, dissolved
Calcium, dissolved                                Secchi disk transparency
Chloride, dissolved                               Silica, dissolved
Color, true                                       Sodium, dissolved
Conductance                                       Sulfate,  dissolved
Fluoride, total dissolved                         Temperature
Iron,  dissolved                                   Turbidity
aThe complete  list of variables  for  the  Survey  is given  in
  Linthurst et  al., Overton  et  al., and Kanciruk et  al.11>12<13
                                       15

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
ANALYTICAL METHODS

     The analytical methods chosen for the NSWS were suitable for analyzing
samples from lakes expected to have low chemical concentrations.
Recommended methods could be used to detect concentrations at one-fifth to
one-tenth the values expected to occur in the sampled lakes.  The methods
selected were state-of-the-art techniques and were extensively peer reviewed
before application in the Survey.  A detailed description of analytical
                                                       o
techniques and procedures is provided by Hillman et al.

QUALITY ASSURANCE  PROGRAM

     An extensive  quality assurance program designed to standardize all
sampling  and analytical  protocols  and to ensure that the  quality of the data
                                                 3  Id
could  be  determined was  Implemented in the ELS-I.
Standardized Protocols
     Field  sampling methods  used at the  lake  site,  and  field laboratory
activities  are detailed  in Morris et  al.   All  personnel  participating in
field  activities  were trained  simultaneously.   Site visits  to each field
operations  base were made  throughout  the sampling  period  to ensure that  all
methods were being properly  conducted.   An extensive evaluation  procedure
was used  to select qualified analytical  laboratories and  to ensure their
continued acceptable  performance throughout  their  participation  in the
project.
Quality Assurance/Quality  Control Samples
      Quality control  samples were analyzed during  the Survey to  ensure that
 instruments and  data  collection activities were operating within the limits
 of the QA plan.    Examples of quality control samples include:  duplicate
 lake samples and  deionized water blanks, and matrix spikes, which are
 samples  to which  a known amount of the analyte was added, to determine
 potential interferences in the analytical method.   Quality assurance  samples
 included  audit samples with known concentrations that were synthetically
 prepared  or collected in bulk from two lakes before the Survey was
 implemented.
                                       16

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
     The analytical  laboratories were required to  analyze  samples  within  the
prescribed "holding times."  Holding times are specific  to each  chemical
variable and are the maximum defined lengths of time that  a sample can  be
held after collection from a lake before analysis.   Exceeding holding times
increases the risk of sample degradation.   Results of analyses of  quality
assurance samples were used to assess the amount of variability at each
level of activity among the field and analytical laboratories.  More than
30 percent of the samples analyzed during the ELS-I were for QA/QC purposes
(Figure 5).
Data Base Quality Assurance
     Three procedures to ensure the quality of the data base were
implemented during the ELS-I.  Oak Ridge National  Laboratory (ORNL),
responsible for data management, implemented quality assurance measures to
ensure that data entry was correct and that all subsequent modifications to
the data base were recorded and explicity documented.  Data verification was
conducted by the EPA-Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory  (EMSL)  in
Las Vegas, Nevada.  Data validation was the primary responsibility of the
EPA-Environmental Research Laboratory (ERL) in  Corvallis, Oregon.   Although
primary responsibility of  each  task was identified with a specific agency,
development of  the final data base  used in data analyses was  an interactive,
collective effort.  As a result of  the  quality  assurance procedures, the
ELS-I  data base contains four distinct  data sets:   raw, verified, validated,
and  final.  The data  bases and  the  complete records of  their  development are
fully  documented.
Data Verification--
     Data  verification was a systematic process established to  review  values
in  the raw data set.   To  accomplish this task, the EMSL-Las  Vegas  Quality
Assurance  Support  Group  worked  closely  with ORNL.
     The  initial  step involved  a review of the field  data forms to  ensure
that calibration and  field quality  control  sample data  were within
previously established acceptance criteria.   Errors in  transcription were
corrected.   Redundant measures  of pH and  DIG  in the field and analytical
laboratories,  and  the in situ lake  pH determination,  were also compared.
                                       17

-------
CO
                          Duplicates
                            (9.7%)
                                                        Duplicates
                                                         (10.5%)
                                        Blanks
                                        (9.6%)
                   Northeast
                                          Lab Audits
                                            (2.7%)

                                          m Field Audits
                                              (5.4%)
                                          Lake Samples
                                            (72.6%)
                                                         Duplicates
                                                           (8.8%)
                                                                       Blanks
                                                                       (10.4%)

                                                                        Lab Audits
                                                                          (2.8%)

                                                                          Field Audits
                                                                            (5.5%)
                                                                         Lake Samples
                                                                           (70.8%)
                                                                       Blanks
                                                                       (8.3%)
                                                Upper Midwest
                         Figure  5.
                                                                            Lab Audits
                                                                             (6.7%)

                                                                             Field Audits
                                                                           *"   (5.9%)
                                                                             Lake Samples
                                                                                (70.3%)
                 Southeast


Percentage of total  samples  analyzed for  quality assurance
in the  Eastern  Lake  Survey -  Phase I.
                                                                                                                                 CD
                                                                                                                                 3
                                                                                                                                 CT
                                                                                                                                 
-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
The second step was to evaluate the results reported by the analytical
laboratories to ensure that the reports were complete,  that internal  quality
control criteria were met and that, if necessary,  data  were appropriately
qualified.  Interaction with the analytical laboratories by the QA Support
Group  involved obtaining confirmation or correction of reported data and,
when required, sample reanalysis.
     After entry into the data base at ORNL, the data were then transferred
by tape to the National Computer Center in Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina  from where they were accessed by the QA Support Group to implement
the third step in  the verification procedure.  The output from a series of
computer  programs, the original data, and  information  in field notebooks
were then used to  produce a  standardized verification  report.   This report
included  definitions of data qualifiers, documentation of data
resubmissions, and requests  for reanalysis  and confirmation, summaries of
modifications to the raw data base and  an  inventory  of all verified  samples.
     Data were verified on  a sample by  sample basis  using  three types of
acceptance  criteria:   1) individual samples were  evaluated for  internal
consistency such as  anion-cation  balance or conductance  comparisons; 2)  all
variables within a group of samples analyzed as a whole  (batch) were
qualified if the results of the  analysis of external QA  samples such as
field  blanks,  duplicates or audits did not meet previously established
acceptance  criteria;  and 3) data were flagged  if  internal  quality assurance
criteria such as matrix spike  recovery, calibration and  reagent blank
 analysis, internal duplicate precision, required  instrument  detection  limit,
 percent recovery of quality control  check samples, and holding time
 requirements were  not satisfied.   The final verification step was the
 transfer of information to ORNL so that the raw data base could be converted
 into the verified data base.
 Data Validation--
      The validation process for the ELS-I data base was designed to
 investigate potential errors in the chemical analyses that were not detected
 in the verification step, and to provide  a  review of  the quality of
 non-chemical variables such as SeccM disk  transparency, color,  turbidity,
 and physical measurements of the lake  and watershed.15
                                        19

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
     The data validation procedures  provided  the  means  to:   1)  identify
questionable data based on empirical  evidence or  statistical  analyses; and
2) determine the most appropriate value for a water quality variable when  it
had been measured in more than one way or when data substitution was
necessary.
     Two aspects of the validation approach were  identification of possible
"outliers" and evaluation of systematic error in  the measurements.  Outliers
are values for variables that are not typical of other sample values
observed for the group of lakes from which samples are drawn.
Identification of outliers that may indicate random error in the data was
accomplished using various statistical procedures including univariate,
bivariate and multivariate analyses.  An example of systematic error that
might result from an analytical methods problem would be that all values for
a  variable,  such as sulfate, were very low,  indicating that the method for
measuring sulfate may  have consistently underestimated the true value.
Methods  for  evaluating systematic error included comparing the ELS-I data to
data available from other  investigations.  These comparisons served  to
identify data from the ELS-I which might require additional evaluation to
ensure  their quality.   The external data sets  for comparison were selected
on the  basis of  their  availability from the  regions  1n which the  ELS-I was
conducted,  the accessibility to  these  data,  and  the  availability  of
accompanying documentation of  quality  assurance  data.
Development of  Final Data Set--
     The final data  set (Data  Set 4)  was  prepared  to resolve problems
relative to data interpretation  because  of missing values  in the  validated
data set.   Data  Set  4  also was modified  by averaging field duplicate values
and substituting for analytical  values determined  to be  in error during
validation.
      Several substitution methods were used.  When available,  values from
duplicate samples were used.   Dissolved organic  carbon,  pH and conductance
were determined using more than  one analytical method; other variables were
measured on lake water samples that had been "split" or divided and analyzed
 at separate laboratories.  These "redundant" measurements were substituted
                                       20

-------
                                                          September  29,  1986
for the missing value using a linear regression  routine.   If redundant
measurements were not available or acceptable,  a substitution value was
calculated from the available data using observed relationships with other
variables (e.g., calcium and acid neutralizing  capacity).   The last option
used for identifying a substitution value was to use the stratum mean.   All
substitution values were examined for acceptability before including them in
the final data set.
     Two other changes were made in the final data set.  If duplicate data
met QA precision criteria, the average value of the duplicates was used in
the final data set.  Negative values for parameters other than acid
neutralizing capacity that resulted from analytical calibration bias were
set equal to zero.  All values modified in the  final data set were flagged
to indicate that they did not represent original measurement values.
Data Management--
     The Survey  has generated  1n excess of 1,000,000 data values.   Because
of the  size of the data base,  stringent protocols  to produce minimal errors
were Implemented.  The Environmental Science Division  of ORNL  was
responsible for managing  the ELS-I  data base and  for preliminary statistical
analyses.   It  served  as the  focal  point for  coordinating data  flow
(Figure 6)  from the  QA Support  Group at EMSL-Las  Vegas to  ERL-Corvallis.
     The raw data  set was produced by  entering  data directly from  the field
forms  and  analytical  laboratory forms.  Data were entered  independently  by
two  keyboard operators and  automatically  examined for  data  entry errors  and
errors  in  range.   A  computer program was  developed to  compare  the  two sets
of entered data and  to  identify and correct  inconsistencies.16
     The data  base was designed to permit the  entry of data "tags",
characters which directly qualified the individual data value.  Tags were
data qualifiers placed  next to a variable on the data  sheet by field
 sampling crews or  laboratory analysts.  For  example,  if a pH meter was
 unstable a V would be  placed next to the recorded value by the technician.
     Additionally, "flags" were used 1f the  entered values exceeded
 previously defined range limits or if pairs  of variables (such as pH and
 ANC values) within the same sample appeared Incompatible.  Flags were
                                       21

-------
                                                                   September 29,  1986
            SITE SELECTION )  ( FIELD SAMPLING ^   (  ANALYTICAL
           V             J  \             )   \ LABORATORIES
                   VISUAL FORM CHECK
            DATA ENTRY 1
                              DATA ENTRY 2
                      ERROR AND
                      RANGE CHECK
                                      BATCH REPORTS
                   RAW DATA SET
                   (DATA SET 1)
                                        VERIFIED DATA SET
                                        (DATA SET 2)
                                                                     DATA EDITING
                                                                     AND FLAGGING
                                                         VALIDATED DATA SET
                                                         (DATA SET 3)
           FINAL ELS-1 DATA SET
           I DATA SET 4 )
Figure 6.   Data  management  approach for the  Eastern Lake Survey  - Phase I.
                                             22

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
extensively used by EMSL-Las Vegas during the verification process.   Thus,
the data base was structured so that each single variable value could have  a
tag and/or flag if appropriate.
     Data were transferred from the raw to the verified data set,  and
subsequently, to the validated data set as the above procedures progressed.
As transfers were made, the original entries with all qualifiers were
maintained with backup files as a means of documenting all changes to the
data base.
                                       23

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
                               IMPLEMENTATION
     Satisfying the data quality objectives  that  were  established  for  the
ELS-I required that sample collection be conducted in  a  way that minimized
the risk of introducing variability.   The large number of lakes and  their
extensive geographic distribution,  the relatively short  optimal period for
sampling (fall turnover) and the previously established  holding times  for
critical chemical variables necessitated the use of a sampling procedure
that would allow samples from a large number of sites to be delivered as
quickly as possible to analytical laboratories for processing.  For these
reasons, helicopters were chosen as the most effective means to access sites
and  to deliver samples for processing.  Because some of the critical
variables can change very quickly  (within hours)  after water samples  are
removed from  lakes, mobile field laboratories were used to measure  some key
chemical constituents  especially prone  to change  and to conduct preliminary
processing of the  samples before delivery to analytical laboratories.

BASE SITE OPERATIONS

      The  sampling  effort for the ELS-I  began  in  October 1984  and  ended  in
December  1984.   Eight  bases  of operations  were established:   Bangor,  Maine;
Lake Placid/Saranac Lake,  New York;  Lexington,  Massachusetts; Mt.  Poconos,
Pennsylvania; Rhinelander,  Wisconsin; Duluth,  Minnesota;  Asheville, North
Carolina;  and Lakeland, Florida.  Each base site consisted of a mobile  field
laboratory,  an area for storage and  calibration of field equipment, two
helicopters,  and a logistics coordination room.   Ten personnel were
responsible for collection and delivery of samples to each field  laboratory
which was staffed by a crew of five.
 Sampling Activities
      Approximately 12 lakes per day were sampled by two sampling crews whose
 daily itineraries were Identified by logistics room staff.  Watershed
 descriptions for each lake visited were recorded upon approaching  the lake.
                                       24

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
Temperature, pH, depth,  conductance (a measure  of dissolved  chemicals)  and
Secchi disk transparency (a measure of the depth  of water clarity)  were
determined on site.  In all lakes greater than  1.5 meters in depth, samples
were taken from 1.5 meters below the surface.   In shallow lakes,  samples
were taken at depths less than 1.5 meters.  Samples collected at  each lake
included those to be processed through the field  laboratory  for delivery to
the analytical laboratories and two collected in  sealed syringes  carefully
protected from the atmosphere.  Upon completion of each day's sampling
effort, lake and quality assurance samples (duplicates and deionized water
blanks) and data forms containing on-site records were delivered to the
field laboratory for processing and transmittal to the analytical
laboratories, EMSL-Las Vegas  and ORNL, as appropriate.
      Field  sampling equipment was then subjected to various  quality control
checks  and  prepared for the next day's sampling  effort.   Field crews joined
the logistics staff to report the day's  activities  and plan  the  next day's
itinerary.
Field Laboratory Activities
      Upon delivery to  the field laboratory,  lake samples and blanks  and
field laboratory QA samples were assigned identification numbers to  assist
 in sample tracking before field processing began.   Special  techniques  were
 used  to analyze the duplicate syringe samples  for pH  and dissolved inorganic
 carbon, which are  especially  prone to change as  a result of exchange of
 carbon dioxide with the atmosphere.  Quick analysis and precautionary
 measures taken with these unpreserved samples  were necessary to  prevent the
 values from changing from those that actually occurred in the lake.
      The remaining lake and QA samples were processed by preservation and/or
 filtration; each was divided into seven portions (including one prepared for
 analysis of extractable aluminum) and shipped by overnight courier in cooled
 containers to one of four analytical laboratories.  True color  and turbidity
 (a measure of particulate suspended particles) were also measured at  the
 field  laboratory.
      All field laboratory data were recorded on a  standardized  form and were
 approved by the laboratory supervisor.  This form was then  transmitted with
 the  lake data  form completed by the sampling crew, and  the  shipping form,
 which  was  used to track  all  samples shipped from the laboratory.

                                       25

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
ANALYTICAL LABORATORY OPERATIONS

     Four analytical laboratories processed approximately 2,650 samples
(both lake and QA) during the ELS-I:  Global Geochemistry in Canoga
Park, California; Versar in Springfield, Virginia; EMSI (formerly Rockwell
International) in Newberry Park, California; and U.S. Geological Survey in
Denver, Colorado.  All laboratories were contractually required to process
samples according to standardized protocols within pre-established holding
times.  Data for each batch (an entire  set of samples processed at one field
laboratory on one day) were required to be submitted within a period of 30
days to QA Managers at EMSL-Las Vegas.
                                        26

-------
                                                         September 29,  1986
                                  RESULTS
NUMBER OF LAKES SAMPLED

     A total of 2,681 probability sample lakes were selected from the  map
population for the ELS-I.  Examination of 1:250,000-scale USGS maps resulted
in the elimination of 805 of these lakes.  An additional  151 were classified
as non-target lakes by the field crews and 113 were not visited.   Water
samples were collected from 1,612 lakes.  Twenty of these lakes were not
included in the population estimates because they were larger than 2000 ha.
The final sample size, upon which population estimates were based, was
1,592.
     A total of 763 probability sample lakes and 115 special interest lakes
were sampled in the Northeast (Table 3).  Based on the sample size of
probability sample lakes, it is estimated that the number of lakes in the
Northeast characterized  by the ELS-I  is  7,096 with a standard error of
165.3.   The estimated  number of lakes characterized by the  Survey  in the
Upper Midwest  was  slightly larger  (8,501) and  in the Southern Blue Ridge
and  Florida,  smaller  (258 and 2,098,  respectively).  The  state in which the
largest  number of  probability sample  lakes  were  sampled was Wisconsin
 (253,  Table 4), while  the most  special  interest  lakes  sampled were  in
New  York (48).

 POPULATION ESTIMATES

      The ELS-I data were used to describe lakes  in the eastern United States
 by producing cumulative frequency distributions.  Figure 7 is an example for
 ANC.  For any value of ANC shown on the x-axis,  the corresponding percentage
 of lakes estimated to have ANC equal  to or less than that value is shown on
 the y-axis.  Because these distributions are estimated from sample data, the
 95 percent confidence limit is also given  (shown as a dashed line).  For
 example, if the percentage of lakes estimated to have ANC  <0 ueq  L"1 is 22.0

                                       27

-------
                                                          September 29, 1986
          TABLE 3.   NUMBER OF LAKES SAMPLED WITHIN  EACH  SUBREGION
                      DURING THE EASTERN LAKE SURVEY  - PHASE  I

Estimated
Target Probability

Region
1: Northeast





2: Midwest




3: Southeast

Total

Subregion
1A: Adirondacks
IB: Poconos/Catskills
1C: Central New England
ID: Southern New England
IE: Maine

2A: Northeastern Minnesota
2B: Upper Peninsula of Michigan
2C: Northcentral Wisconsin
2D: Upper Great Lakes Area

3A: Southern Blue Ridge
3B: Florida

Population
Size0
1290 (47.6)
1479 (92.9)
1483 (57.5)
1318 (93.7)
1526 (66.0)
7096 (165.3)
1457 (74.3)
1050 (72.5)
1480 (48.8)
4515 (293.9)
8501 (315.5)
258 (20.5)
2098 (212.6)

Sample
Lakesb
155
143
163
126
176
763
147
146
153
141
587
94
148
1592
Special
Interest
Lakesc
48
12
49
0
6
115
9
10
32
1
52
10
9
186
 Estimates are based on the number of probability sample  lakes  that  were  >4  ha  and
 <2000 ha.  Standard errors on target population size estimates are  shown in
 parentheses.

 The number of lakes sampled that were part of the probability  sample.

cThe number of lakes sampled that were not part of the probability sample.
                                        28

-------
                                                        September 29,  1986
           TABLE 4.  NUMBER OF LAKES SAMPLED WITHIN EACH STATE
                     DURING THE EASTERN LAKE SURVEY PHASE - I
Region State
1: Northeast Connecticut
Massachusetts
Maine
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
2: Midwest Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
3: Southeast Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia
Probability
Sample
Lakes°
24
97
225
69
7
191
106
15
29
160
174
253
138
54
30
12
6
2
Special
Interest
Lakes b
0
0
6
17
12
48
0
0
32
11
10
31
9
1
7
0
2
0
aThe number of lakes (>4 ha and <2000 ha) actually sampled that were
 part of the probability sample.

bThe number of lakes actually sampled that were not part of the
 probability sample.
                                      29

-------
                                                                        September  29,   1986
            80-

            60-

            40 -

            20 -
    80-

    60
O
«   40
3
O.
O   20
        °    80
        S.
     60

     40

     20



     80

     60

     40

     20
                 Northeast
                               Population Size = 7096(165.3)
                                  Sample Size = 763
                 Upper Midwest
                                        Population Size = 8501(315.5)
                                           Sample Size = 587
                  Southern Blue Ridge  .
                                        Population Size = 258(20.5)
                                           Sample Size s 94
                  Florida
                                         Population Size * 2098(212.6)
                                            Sample Size = 148
                100   0   100   200300400500600700800900  1000
                         Acid Neutralizing Capacity (fieq t1)
Figure 7.  Cumulative frequency distributions for acid neutralizing capacity for
           the population of lakes >* ha and <2QOO ha in two regions and two
           subregions sampled in fall, 1984 during Phase I of the Eastern Lake
           Survey.  The dashed line is the 95 percent upper confidence limit.
           Population sise is estimated! standard errors of these estimates are
           shown in parentheses.  These plots can be used to make qualitative
           comparisons among areas surveyed! e.g., the dots shown for the
           Northeast indicate that approximately 30 percent of the lakes have
           A1CC £100 JJeq L'l .  A complete data report on the Survey results  is
           given in Linthurst et al., Overton et al., and Kanciruk et al.   '   '
                                           30

-------
                                                         September 29,  1986
and the 95 percent upper confidence limit on  this  estimate  is  29.3,  one
would be 95 percent certain that the true percentage  of lakes  with
ANC <0 ueq L   is no greater than 29.3.
     The cumulative frequency distributions for pH and ANC  were distinctly
different among regions.  Qualitative comparisons  of the distributions of
ANC in the Northeast and Upper Midwest indicate that overall,  the
northeastern lakes were characterized by lower ANC (Figure 7).  Very few
lakes  in the Southern Blue Ridge were characterized by low ANC although the
percentage of Florida (3B) lakes at the  low end of the ANC range was
relatively high.   Similar  conclusions can  be drawn by comparing the
distributions for pH  (Figure 8).
      Although these curves serve to highlight major differences among the
regional  populations  of lakes,  they should not  be  used  to  provide
quantitative estimates.   Instead,  the equations developed  in  the design  can
be used to generate quantitative estimates of  characteristics of target
population  lakes from sample data.   For  comparisons  within and among
regions,  any value of a chemical or physical variable of interest  can be
 selected.   The  values presented in Tables 5  and 6 were selected to quantify
 the number of  lakes (or the  percentage of lakes)  in  the target population
 that have a concentration equal to or less than,  or  equal  to  or greater
 than, that listed.
      Six of the chemical variables measured during the ELS-I  (pH,  ANC,
 sulfate, extractable aluminum, dissolved organic  carbon and calcium) were
 selected for detailed analysis (Tables 5 and 6) because of their direct
 relevance to the effects of acidic deposition on  lake chemistry.  In some
 lakes, continuous inputs  of acids can eventually result in decreases in pH
 and acid neutralizing capacity.  Lake waters can lose a high proportion of
 their acid neutralizing capacity without  experiencing substantial decreases
 in pH; for this  reason, losses in acid  neutralizing capacity  serve  as a
 better indicator of  acidification than  decreases  in pH.   Sulfate
 concentrations  in lake  water  can  become elevated  as  a  result of sulfate
 deposition, one of the  key components of acidic  deposition.   Some forms of
 aluminum  have  been shown  to increase with decreasing  pH;  thus,  acidification
 of lakes  can be accompanied by elevated concentrations of aluminum that can
 be toxic  to aquatic  organisms,  particularly fish.   Dissolved organic carbon

                                       31

-------
                                                                       September  29,   1986
        o
        fS
        Q.
        s.
        * ha and <2000 ha In tvo regions and two subreglons sampled in fall,
           198* during Phase I of the Eastern Lake Survey.  Th« dashed lin* is the
           95 percent upper confidence limit.  Population sice is estljnatedi
           standard errors of these estimates ara shovn in parentheses.  These
           plots can be used to make qualitative comparisons among araas surveyed.
           Imprecise estimates can be obtained from the curvei e.g., the dots shovn
           for tha Upper Midwest indicate  that approximately 10 percent of the
           lakes have pH <6.0.  However, a complete description of the use of the
           data base to make quantitative  comparisons among areas is obtained in
           the data report on the Survey results (Linthurst et al., Overton at  al.,
                                11i12• 13
           and Kanclruk «t aL.).
                                           32

-------
                                 TABLE 5.   ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF LAKES (>4 HA AND <2000 HA),  AND NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF LAKES WITH

                                           SELECTED VALUES OF pH AND ANC FROM PHASE I OF THE EASTERN LAKE SURVEY.  THE 95 PERCENT UPPER

                                           CONFIDENCE LIMITS (UCL) FOR LAKE NUMBER ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESES.   THESE REFERENCE VALUES

                                           PROVIDE ONE MECHANISM BY WHICH CHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF LAKES WITHIN AND AMONG SUBREGIONS
                                           CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED (Data are from Llnthurat et •!.,  Overt on et al., and Kanclruk et al.)
                                                                                                                                        ^
CJ



Reg ion/ Sub region
Northeast
Upper Mldveat
Southern Blue Ridge
Florida
oH ANC (ueq L~X)
Total <5.0 <6.0 <0 <200
Number
of Lakei Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage
7096 240 (314) 3.4 916 (1056) 12.9 326 (422) 4.6 4258 (4513) 60.0
8502 130 (189) 1.5 818 (1036) 9.6 148 (209) 1.7 3518 (3982) 41.4
258 0 (-) 0 1 (2) 0.4 0 (-) 0 88 (108) 34.3
2098 259 (385) 12.4 687 (878) 32.7 463 (615) 22.0 1156 (1413) 55.1
       Upper confidence limit* for value* of cero are undefined.
                                                                                                                                                                      CO
                                                                                                                                                                      rt>
                                                                                                                                                                     TJ
                                                                                                                                                                      CT
                                                                                                                                                                      (D
                                                                                                                                                                      -i
                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                      00
                                                                                                                                                                      cr>

-------
                          TABLE 6.  ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF LAKES  (>4 HA AND  <2000 HA), AND NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF LAKES  WITH

                                    SELECTED  VALUES OF FOUR KEY VARIABLES FROM  PHASE I OF THE EASTERN LAKE  SURVEY.  THE  95  PERCENT

                                    UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMITS (UCL) FOR LAKE NUMBER ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESES.*  THESE REFERENCE VALUES

                                    PROVIDE ONE MECHANISM  BY WHICH CHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF LAKES WITHIN AND AMONG SUBREGIONS
                                                                                                                              11  12,13
                                    CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED  (Data ace from Linthurst et al., Overton et al., and Kanciruk et al.)

Reglon/Subreglon
Northeast
Upper Midwest
Southern Blue Ridge
Florida
Sulfate Extractable Al Dissolved Organic Carbon Calcium
Total > 150 ueq L > 150 ug L"1^ > 6 ueq L"1 < 50 ueq L"1
of Lakes Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage Number (UCL) Percentage
7096 1846 (2082) 26.0 92 (135) 2.0 1873 (2090) 26.4 359 (442) 5.1
8502 608 (932) 7.1 2 (4) 0.0 5351 (5938) 62.9 776 (997) 9.1
258 22 (36) 8.5 0 (0) (-) 16 (28) 6.1 31 (42) 12.0
2098 846 (1088) 40.3 14 (35) 1.5 1445 (1766) 68.9 402 (551) 19.2
Upper confidence limits for values of zero are undefined.

Data are for "clearwater" lakes only. I.e., with true color values £30 platinum cobalt units.
                                                                                                                                                               ID
                                                                                                                                                              TJ
                                                                                                                                                               e+
                                                                                                                                                               (D

                                                                                                                                                               CT
                                                                                                                                                               fD
                                                                                                                                                               -J

                                                                                                                                                               ro
                                                                                                                                                               vo
                                                                                                                                                              CO
                                                                                                                                                              en

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
(DOC) in "colored"  lakes is  largely  composed  of  organic  acids that  are of
terrestrial  origin; these compounds  can  complex,  i.e., combine with,  certain
types of ions, including toxic metals, and reduce their  potential effects  on
aquatic organisms.   Additionally,  DOC compounds  can  serve as  sources  of
hydrogen ion (i.e., acidity).   Thus, some lakes  that are acidic  may be  so
because of the presence of organic acids and  not necessarily  because  of
acidic deposition.   In many lakes, the dominant  cation is calcium which  Is
often equivalent in concentration to bicarbonate, a major component of  ANC.
Thus, in lakes with low ANC, calcium may also be low, and may provide
evidence that the  lake is potentially sensitive to acidic deposition.
     In the Northeast, an estimated 240  lakes had pH <5.0 and 916 had
pH <6.0 (Table 5).  In Florida a similar number of lakes (259)  were
estimated to  have  pH <5.0 and substantially fewers  (687) lakes had pH <6.0.
     Acid neutralizing capacity values <0 ueq L"1 indicate that the lake
water has no  capacity to neutralize acidic inputs.   By definition,  lakes
with ANC <0 ueq  L"1 are  acidic.  The overall results for the Northeast and
Upper Midwest indicate  that less than 5  percent  and  2 percent, respectively,
of the  lakes  were  acidic  (Table 5).  The majority of these acidic  lakes were
located in  a  single subregion  in each area;  10.7  percent of the  lakes in  the
Adirondacks  (1A) were acidic,  and 9.8 percent in  the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan  (2B).11   In  Florida,  22  percent of  the  lakes were acidic, while  in
the  Southern  Blue  Ridge,  no acidic  lakes were sampled.   The Northeast had
the  highest  number and  percentage of lakes with  ANC <200 ueq L"1 (4,258
and  60.0%,  respectively).
     An estimated  1,846 lakes of  the total estimated target population
 (7,096) in  the  Northeast had  high sulfate concentrations  (>150  ueq L"1;
Table  6).   Of the  five  northeastern subregions  surveyed,  the highest numbers
of lakes  with high sulfate  concentrations occurred  in the  Poconos/
Catskills (IB)  and Southern New England (ID).11  Fewer  lakes with  high
 sulfate were found in the Upper Midwest and  these were  concentrated  in  the
 Upper Great Lakes  Area (2D).   Only 22 lakes  in  the Southern  Blue Ridge (3A)
 were estimated  to have sulfate concentrations  >150 ueq  L  .   In Florida
 40.3 percent of the lakes in the target population were estimated  to have
 sulfate concentrations >150 ueq L  .
                                       35

-------
                                                         September 29, 1986
     Extractable aluminum is  an  operationally defined  term  used  to describe
forms of aluminum that can be toxic  to  fish  and  other  aquatic organisms.
Concentrations of extractable aluminum  were  relatively low  in all areas
surveyed.  In the Northeast,  92  "clearwater" (true  color  <30 platinum cobalt
units) lakes had high (>150 ug L~ )  extractable  aluminum, and of these,  82
were located in the Adirondacks  (Table  6).    The only other subregion where
more than one percent of the lakes were estimated to have high  extractable
aluminum was Florida (3B) where 14 lakes representing 1.5 percent of the
target population had concentrations >150 ug L   .
     On a regional basis, a substantial percentage of lakes contained DOC
concentrations >6 mg L    (Table 6).  The Upper  Midwest contained, by far,
the largest number of high DOC lakes while the  number in the Southern Blue
Ridge was very small.  Of the estimated 1,873 lakes in the Northeast with
high DOC, the highest number  (643) was located  in Maine  (IE).11  In  the
Upper Midwest, the highest percentages were observed  in Northeastern
Minnesota (2A, the subregion  that contains  the  Boundary Waters  Canoe Area)
and  the  Upper Great  Lakes Area  (2D).   In Florida  (3B)  1,445 lakes,
representing  an  estimated 68.9  percent of the target  population had  high
DOC.
      On  a regional basis,  Florida  (3B) had  the  highest estimated
percentage  (19.2%) of lakes  with calcium concentrations  <50 ueq L"1
 (Table  6).   The  largest  number  of  lakes with low calcium was located in  the
Upper Midwest;  of these,  324 were  located in Northcentral  Wisconsin  (2C),
which comprised an estimated 21.9  percent of the target  population.   In  the
Northeast,  the  highest percentage  of lakes  with low calcium was observed in
Southern New England (ID, 10.1%) followed by the Adirondacks  (1A, 8.3%).
      Because the ELS-I was not  designed  to  evaluate cause-and-effect
 relationships without additional supporting analyses, acidic deposition
 cannot  be  inferred to be the cause of  the above chemical observations.
 However, the extensive data base generated  by  the ELS-I  can be used in
 conjunction with additional  data to increase the confidence  in the
 hypothesized relationships and mechanisms believed to result  from,  or to be
 affected by, acidic deposition.  Examples of the questions generated from
 correlative analysis of the data base  that  can be examined during future
 studies include:
                                       36

-------
                                                     September  29,  1986
•    What Is the relationship between the observed sulfate
     concentrations in lakes and the atmospheric deposition
     of sulfate?

•    How important are organic acids in explaining the
     occurrence of acidic lakes?

•    Can the acidic lakes in the Adirondacks, the Upper Peninsula of
     Michigan, Northcentral Wisconsin and Florida be attributed to
     acidic deposition?

•    How important are acidic inputs derived from acidic
     deposition in explaining the observations that lakes
     with the highest extractable aluminum concentrations
     occurred in the Adirondacks?
                                  37

-------
                                                         September 29,  1986
         USE OF EASTERN LAKE SURVEY -  PHASE I  DATA BY  OTHER PROJECTS
     Within EPA's Aquatic Effects Research Program,  a number of projects use
the data base generated by the ELS-I.   One hundred and fifty lakes were
selected from the lakes sampled during the ELS-I in the Northeast for
Phase II of the National Lake Survey.   This component of the NSWS is
designed to quantify temporal variability in lake chemistry and to determine
present biological status in lakes.
     Sites for the Direct/Delayed Response Project in the Northeast were
also selected from lakes sampled in the ELS-I.  In this project, soils from
145 watersheds were sampled to obtain data that can be used in models
designed to predict the time required for surface waters to become acidic.
     The ELS-I data are also being used to select lakes that can be
evaluated  for inclusion in the future Long-Term Monitoring  Project, designed
to examine trends  in the response  of  surface waters  to  acidic  deposition.
                                       38

-------
                                                        September 29,  1986
                                REFERENCES
1.   Morris,  F.  A.,  D.  V.  Peck,  M.  B.  Bonoff and K.  J.  Cabbie.   1986.
    National  Surface Water Survey,  Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I,  Field
    Operations  Report.  EPA/600/4-86/010,  U.  S. Environmental  Protection
    Agency,  Las Vegas, Nevada.

2.   Hillman,  D. C.  J., J. F. Potter and S. J. Simon.   1986.   National
    Surface Water Survey, Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I, Analytical Methods
    Manual.   EPA/600/4-86/009,  U.  S.  Environmental  Protection Agency,
    Las Vegas,  Nevada.

3.   Drouse,  S.K., D.C.J. Hillman,  L.W. Creelman, J.F. Potter and
    S.J. Simon.  1986.  National Surface Water Survey - Phase I,
    Eastern Lake Survey, Quality Assurance Plan.  EPA/600/4-86/008,
    U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Las Vegas, Nevada.

4.   Anonymous.   1984.  National Surface Water  Survey, National Lake
    Survey - Phase  I, Research  Plan.  U.  S.  Environmental Protection
    Agency, Washington, D.C. (internal document).

5.  Linthurst, R. A.  and W. S.  Overton.   1985.  ASA review of EPA  funded
    acid precipitation research:  Response to  ASA  Coordinating Committee's
    comments on  Aquatics Research Project 3B:   National  Surface Water
    Survey:  National  Lake  Survey -  Phase I  Research  Plan.  Amer.  Stat.
    39:266-271.

6.  Omernik, J.M.  and C.F.  Powers.   1983. Total alkalinity  of  surface
    waters—a  national map.  Ann. Assoc.  Am. Geog.   73:133-136.

7.  Omernik, J.M.  and A.J.  Kinney.   1986. Total Alkalinity  of  Surface
    Waters:  A  Map  of the New England and  New York  Region.
    EPA-600/D-84-216, U.  S.  Environmental Protection  Agency,  Corvallis,
    Oregon.

8.  Omernik,  J.M.  and G.E.  Griffith.  1985.   Total Alkalinity of  Surface
    Waters:   A Map of the Upper Midwest Region.  EPA/600/D-85/043,
    U.  S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency,  Corvallis, Oregon.

9.  Omernik,  J.M.   1985.  Total Alkalinity of Surface Waters:  A Map of the
    Appalachian Region.   U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis,
    Oregon  (draft).

10.  Altshuller, A.P. and R.A.  Linthurst  (eds.) 1984.  The Acidic Deposition
     Phenomenon and Its Effects.  Critical Assessment Review Papers,
     Vol. II:  Effects Sciences.  EPA/600/8-83/016 BF, U. S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, Washington,  D.C.
                                      39

-------
                                                          September 29,  1986
11.   Linthurst,  R.A.,  D.H.  Landers,  J.M.  Eilers,  D.F.  Brakke,  W.S.  Overton
     E.P.  Meier,  and R.E.  Crowe.   1986.   Characteristics of Lakes in the
     Eastern United States:  Volume  I.   Population Descriptions and
     Physico-Chemical  Relationships.  EPA/600/4-86/007a, U. S. Environmental
     Protection Agency,  Washington,  D.C.   139 pp.

12.   Overton, W.S., P. Kanciruk,  L.A.  Hook,  J.M.  Eilers, D.H.  Landers,
     D.F.  Brakke, D.J. Blick, Jr., R.A.  Linthurst, M.D. DeHaan, and
     J.M.  Omernik.  1986.   Characteristics of Lakes in the Eastern United
     States:  Volume II.  Lakes Sampled and Descriptive Statistics for
     Physical and Chemical  Variables.   EPA/600/4-86/007b,
     U. S. Environmental Protection  Agency,  Washington, D.C.  374 pp.

13.   Kanciruk, P., J.M.  Eilers, R.A. McCord, D.H. Landers, D.F. Brakke, and
     R.A.  Linthurst.  1986.  Characteristics of Lakes in the Eastern United
     States:  Volume III.   Data Compendium of Site Characteristics and
     Chemical Variables.  EPA/600-4-86/007c, U. S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Washington, D.C.  439 pp.

14.   Best, M.D.,  L.W.  Creelman, S.K. Drouse, and D.J. Chaloud.  1986.
     National Surface Water Survey,  Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I, Quality
     Assurance Report.  EPA/600/4-86/011, U. S. Environmental  Protection
     Agency, Las Vegas,  Nevada.

15.   Eilers, J.M., D.J.  Blick, Jr.,  and M.D. DeHaan.  1986.  National
     Surface Water Survey,  Eastern Lake Survey - Phase  I, Validation of the
     Eastern Lake Survey - Phase I data base.  U. S. Environmental
     Protection Agency,  Corvallis, Oregon.

16.   Rosen, A.E.  and P.  Kanciruk.  1985.   A generic data entry quality
     assurance tool.  Proceedings of the Tenth Annual SAS  (Statistical
     Analysis System,  Inc.) Users Group International Conference.
     March 10-13.  Reno, Nevada.
                                      40

-------