SECONDARY IMPACT ASSESSMENT MANUAL
i, cl.c.
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EPA WA-B064
SECONDARY IMPACT ASSESSMENT MANUAL
January 1981
Prepared for:
Office of Environmental Review
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C.
Prepared by:
Urban Systems Research and Engineering, Inc.
36 Boylston Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1: Introduction and Organization
1.1: Introduction
1.2: Definition of Secondary Impacts
1.3: Rationale for this User Manual and for Levels A,
1.4: Scope of this Manual
1.5: Organization of this Manual
B, a C
1-1
1-1
1-3
1-5
1-6
Chapter 2: Level A Analysis
2.1: Introduction to Level A Analysis
2.2: Step 1: Suggested Level A Screening Questions
2.3: Step 2: Apply Level A Decision Criteria
2.4: Summary of Level A Analysis
Chapter 3: Level B Analysis
3.1:
3.2:
3.3;
3.4:
3.5;
3.6:
3.7:
3.8:
3.9:
3.10:
3.11:
3.12:
3.13:
Introduction to Level B Analysis
Note to EPA Regional Office Users of This Manual
Step 1: Define the Impact Area
Estimate Direct Employment
Calculate Nonlocal Employment
Calculate Indirect Employment
Calculate Direct and Indirect Population
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 4:
Step 5:
Effects
Step 6:
Step 7:
Step 8:
Required
Step 9:
Estimate the Number of New Households
Review the Existing Housing Market
Estimate the Number of New Housing Units
Review Selected Physical Impacts
Step 10: Apply Level B Decision Criteria
Step 11: Prepare an Assessment Summary
Chapter 4: Level C Analysis
4.1: Introduction to Level C
4.2: Format of Chapter 4
4.3: Step 1: Define the Impact Area
4.4: Step 2: Describe the Existing Environment in
the Impact Area
4.5: Step 3: Do a Baseline Projection of the Impact
Area Without the Project
4.6: Step 4: Estimate Direct Employment
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2-8
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3-3
3-3
3-3
3-4
3-7
3-10
3-10
3-15
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3-18
3-19
3-20
4-1
4-3
4-3
4-5
4-12
4-14
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Page
4.7: Step 5: Calculate Nonlocal Employment 4-15
4.8: Step 6: Calculate Indirect Employment 4-16
4.9: Step 7: Calculate Direct and Indirect 4~17
Population Effects
4.10: Step 8: Estimate the Number of New Households 4-17
4.11: Step 9: Review the Existing Housing Market 4-18
4.12: Step 10: Estimate the Number of New Housing 4-19
Units Required
4.13: Step 11: Allocate New Housing Units Among 4-21
Communities
4.14: Step 12: Calculate Residential Site Requirements 4-22
for New Housing Units
4.15: Step 13: Allocate New Housing Units Within Communities 4-23
4.16: Step 14: Estimate New Residential Infrastructure 4-25
Demands
4.17: Step 15: Estimate Site Requirements for Service Sector 4-33
Development
4.18: Step 16: Assess Air Pollution Impacts 4-36
4.19: Step 17: Assess Impacts from Stormwater Runoff 4-38
4.20: Step 18: Assess Noise Impacts 4-55
4.21: Step 19: Assess Pesticides Impacts ' . 4~67
4.22: Step 20: Assess Impacts on Sensitive Areas 4-68
4.23: Step 21: Identify Known Colocators 4~"71
4.24: Step 22: Calculate the Site Requirements of Known 4-72
Colocators
4.25: Step 23: Calculate the Infrastructure Requirements 4-72
of Known Colocators
4.26: Step 24: Prepare the Environmental Impact Statement 4~73
Appendix I.A.: Equation for Indirect Employment and Population I.A-1
Impacts
Appendix I.E.: Calculating Costs for Standard Facilities I.B-1
Appendix I.e.: Summary of Construction Worker Case Studies I.C-1
List of Sources for Construction Worker Case Studies I.C-3
Appendix I.D.: Nationwide Average Motor Vehicle Emission Rates I.D-1
For NMHC, CO, and NOX
Appendix I.E.: Nationwide Average Motor Vehicle Emission Rates for I.E-1
TSP, Pb, and SOV
Ji
Appendix I.F.: OBERS Methodology I.F-1
Appendix I.G.: Alternative Formulation of the Baseline Projection I.G-1
Appendix I.H.: Explanation of Standard Industrial Classification I.H-1
System
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Appendix I.J.: Explanation of Figure 7, "Secondary Impacts I.J-1
Assessment Flowchart"
Appendix II.A: Infrastructure Standards II.A-1
List of Sources for Instructure Standards II.A-36
Appendix II.B.: Bibliography #1 - List of Sources Used to B.l-1
Prepare this Manual
Appendix II.C.: Bibliography #2 - Review of Modeling Literature B.2-1
Appendix II.D.: Glossary II.D-1
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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1 :
Figure 2 :
Figure 3 :
Figure 4:
Table 1:
Table 2:
Figure 5:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Figure 6:
Figure 7 :
Figure 8 :
Table 5:
Table 6:
Figure 9:
Table 7:
Figure 10:
Table 8:
(Part
Hypothetical Impact Chain of a Facility or Project
Flowchart of Level A Activities
Proposed Questions for Screening Potential Secondary
Impacts
Flowchart of Level B Activities
Project Employment - Warner Valley Station,
Washington County, Utah
Major Economic Sectors
Sample Calculation of Indirect Employment and
Population Impacts
Calculation of Employment Multiplier for Albany-
Schnectady- Troy, 1978
Extract from 1970 Census of Housing for Batavia,
New York
Example of an Assessment Summary for Secondary
Impacts (Level B)
Secondary Impacts Assessment Flowchart
Flowchart of Level C Activities
Means of Transportation by Distance to Work
Means of Transportation by Travel Time to Work
Example of Different Vacancy Rate Assumptions (Step 10)
Suggested Housing Densities
Sample Application of Step 11, "Allocate New Housing
Units Within Communities," and Step 12, "Calculate
Residential Site Requirements."
Type of New Units and Site Requirements
of Figure 10 Sample Application)
Page
1-2
2-2
2-4
3-2
3-5
3-9
3-11
3-14
3-16
3-22
4-2
4-4
4-6
4-7
4-22
4-25
4-29
4-31
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Figure 11: Estimating New Residential Infrastructure Demands 4-35
(Step 14)
Table 9: Composite Motor Vehicle Emission Rates for Low- 4-42
Altitude Regions
Table 10: Composite Motor Vehicle Emission Rates for 4-43
California
Table 11: Composite Motor Vehicle Emission Rates for High- 4-44
Altitude Regions
Figure 12: Normal Seasonal Heating Degrees-Days (Base 65° F), 4-46
1941-1970
Figure 13: Annual Air Conditioner Compressor Operating Hours 4-47
for Residential Structures
Figure 14: Example of the Application of Step 16, "Assess Air 4-51
Pollution Impacts"
Figure 15: Effects of Urbanization on Volume and Rates of Surface 4-56
Runoff
Table 12: Effect of Changing Land Use on Storm Runoff from 4-57
470-Acre Subarea
Figure 16: Runoff Coefficient Determination from Land Cover 4-60
Information
Table 13: x Factors • 4~61
Figure 17: Example of the Application of Step 17, "Assess Impacts 4-63
from Stormwater Runoff"
Table 14: "a" Factors Given Cv(i) 4-65
Figure 18: Sources to Contact to Identify Sensitive Areas 4-69
Appendix Figures and Tables
Table E-l: Pooled Average Lead Content of Gasoline Burned by I.E-2
Vehicle Population
Table E-2: Average Fleet Fuel Economy I.E-3
Figure G-l: Representative Growth Scenarios (Case 1) I.G-3
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Paqe
Figure G-2:
Figure J-l:
Figure J-2:
Figure J-3:
Table II-l:
Table II-2:
Table II-3:
Table II-4:
Table II-5:
Table II-6:
Table II-7:
Table II-8:
Table II-9:
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
11-10:
11-11:
11-12:
11-13:
11-14:
11-15:
11-16:
11-17:
11-18:
Representative Growth Scenarios (Case 2)
Residentially-Related Secondary Impacts Flowchart
Comprehensive Secondary Impacts Flowchart
Secondary Impacts Assessment Flowchart (Detailed
Version)
Normal Water Consumption
Required Water Supply for Domestic Use and Fire Flow
Average Water Use by Type of Establishment
Basic Water Distribution Standards by Housing Type
(per 1000 Dwelling Units)
Sewage Generation Rates for Commercial and Public
Establishments
Basic Sewage Standards by Housing Type
(per 1000 Dwelling Units)
Solid Waste Service Standards
Required Fire Flow, by Population
Space Criteria for Hospital Evaluation
(In Gross Square Feet Per Bed)
Standards for Recreational Activities
Minimum Recreation Standards
Recreation Demand for Specific Types of Facilities
Maintenance Requirements for Parks and Playgrounds
Description of Library Characteristics
General Standards for Libraries
Guidelines for Small Libraries
Guidelines for Periodical Collections
•
Standards for Library Operating Hours
I.G-4
I. J-2
I.J-3
I.J-4
II.A-7
II.A-8
II.A-9
II.A-12
II.A-13
II.A-14
II.A-15
II.A-16
II.A-17
II.A-18
II.A-19
II.A-20
II.A-21
II.A-22
II.A-23
II.A-24
II.A-25
II.A-26
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Page
Table 11-19: Pupil Generation Rates by Type of Dwelling II.A-27
Table 11-20: General Requirements for Nursery Schools II.A-29
Table 11-21: Elementary School General Requirements II.A-30
Table 11-22: Junior High School General Requirements II.A-31
Table 11-23: Senior High School General Requirements II.A-32
Table 11-24: Secondary School Staff II.A-33
Table 11-25: General Requirements for Roads and Highways II.A-34
Table 11-26: Characteristics of Shopping Centers . II.A-35
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
As with any research project that spans over two years,
there have been a number of important contributors to the
final product. These contributors and advisors include
individuals at USRSE, as well as a number of people outside
the firm.
First and foremost, I want to particularly thank Michael
Alford, the original director of this project at USR&E, who
dealt with many of the difficult methodological issues that
arose during the first months. Christopher Pleatsikas. Peter
Hall, and Dr. James Hudson, all from USR&E, contributed to the
difficult discussions which led to the simplified model of
secondary impacts.
I owe a special debt to Holly Stanton. During the period
wher^ the draft version of the manual was being put together,
she was indefatigable and always enthusiastic in researching
data sources and methodologies; she performed many tasks which
made my responsibilities somewhat less arduous.
Robert McMahon and Peter Guldberg contributed their
special expertise to this project. Peter was responsible
for the thorough methodology for assessing secondary air
pollution impacts; Bob wrote the section on storxnwater run-
off and commented on the entire draft user manual.
This contract has had two EPA project officers. While
this could have created some difficulties, I am pleased that
the final user manual has had the benefit of the comments
of both of these individuals. Robert Pickett was the
project' officer until February 1980, at which point John
Meagher assumed that responsibility. John provided detailed
critical comment on the outline of the user manual, which
made the production of the draft and the final manual much
easier.
Finally, Jill Jackson was responsible for the production
of many of the early documents and memoranda for this contract.
Martha Connolly and Valerie Bradley were responsible for the
considerable effort required to produce the user manual. Too
often the production of a document such as this manual is assumed
to be an easy task, but we know better. Without Martha and
Valerie, this user manual would not have been possible.
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ABSTRACT
This user manual is designed specifically for the assessment of the
secondary impacts of any type of new development activity. A full range
of secondary impacts is considered. The manual consists of a three-level
review process — Levels A, B, and C. Within this framework projects
without significant secondary impacts can be screened early in the environ-
mental assessment process; the user need not resort to a full EIS in every
case. Intended users of this manual are the EPA regional offices, state
environmental review agencies, contractors for these agencies, and other
interested parties to the environmental review process. Chapter 1 of the
manual provides an introduction to the three-level framework; Chapters 2, 3,
and 4 present the three levels of analysis, each of which has its own set
of procedures.
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Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION
1.1 INTRODUCTION
This document, written for EPA's Office of Environmental Review, is
concerned with assessment of the secondary impacts of new source industries
under the NPDES program. Structured as a user manual for EPA regional
offices and other environmental review organizations, this document com-
prises a three-stage and progressively more detailed step-by-step procedure
for assessing secondary impacts. This three-stage procedure (termed Level
A, B, and C, respectively) provides two decision points at which you can
reach a finding of no significant impact without producing an environmental
impact statement or doing further analysis of the project. Although written
in the C9ntext of EPA's new source NPDES program, the procedures discussed
in this manual can be used in other environmental review programs to assess
the secondary impacts of any type of facility or project.
1.2 DEFINITION OF SECONDARY IMPACTS
Secondary impacts of a project or facility are indirect or induced
changes in the physical or social environment. Secondary impacts are
triggered by direct (primary) impacts. For the purposes of the discussion
in this manual, secondary impacts are also defined as those impacts which
occur off-site from a project or any associated infrastructure (such as
barge landings or rail facilities) which is an essential part of the opera-
tion of the project.
The example in Figure 1 illuminates the definition. Note that this
example is hypothetical and includes only a portion of the potential primary
and secondary impacts associated with a facility or project. In this
example, the primary impact is the direct employment requirements of the
facility. This employment demand includes both the construction and operation
phases. Other primary impacts may include direct physical impacts (e.g., air
or water pollution) or direct infrastructure requirements (e.g., access roads
or facilities for self-generation of power).
Looking only at the direct employment impact in the example, a number
of potential secondary impacts may be triggered. All of the impacts to the
right of the dotted line are considered secondary impacts.
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New Source
Direct
Employme
1
1
I
1
.
.
int | ^
1
f ,_
' V
1
1
1
Indirect Employment
1
Population Chan
1 !
Service
Employment
ge —
Site and
Infrastructure
Requirements
1
Residential
Growth
Physical Environmental
Impacts
o Air
o Water
o Noise
o Sensitive Areas
o Pesticides
Figure 1 Hypothetical Impact Chain of a Facility or Project
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There are several relevant issues involved in analyzing and measuring
secondary impacts:
• successful measurement of these impacts is directly related
to the quantification of the preceding impacts;
• it is important to analyze cumulative impacts. A given
secondary impact (such as secondary air .pollution) may be
the result of several different previous impacts - the
cumulative effects of all of these stimuli must be
considered;
• the likelihood of secondary impacts occurring is highly
dependent on the magnitude and the occurrence of the
preceding impact. For example, if there is no population
change in a community, then secondary physical impacts
resulting from residential growth are unlikely to
occur.
Figure 7 in Chapter 4 provides a considerably more detailed and complete
flowchart of secondary impacts. Appendix I.J. explains Figure 7, and is
designed for the reader interested in more explanation about the reasons that
secondary impacts occur.
1.3 RATIONALE FOR THIS USER MANUAL AND FOR LEVELS A, B, AND C
A major goal of this user manual is to increase the perception on the
part of EPA regional offices, state environmental review agencies, contractors
for these agencies,and other interested parties that secondary impacts, in and
of themselves, are important. This goal is the rationale for a user manual
devoted to secondary impacts, and is also the rationale for the concept of a
three-level review process devoted to these impacts alone. Although the
techniques included in the user manual were conceived in light of the resources
and practices of the EPA regional offices, these techniques are easily adapt-
able to the requirements of any user responsible for the review of secondary
impacts.
The techniques in this user manual are incorporated into a three-level
review process. The three-level structure is consistent with the assumption
that projects without significant secondary impacts can be screened early in
the environmental review process; you need not resort to a full EIS to make
this determination. Each of the three levels consists of specific techniques.
Briefly the three levels can be summarized in the following terms:
• Level A is a screening procedure based on a brief set of
possible questions listed in Chapter 2. These questions
are suggestions of the types of issues you should raise
with the applicant. The list is not a formal questionnaire
to be directed to all applicants, because NEPA regulations
require that you treat each facility on a case-by-case basis.
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Level A is designed to screen, based on four specific
criteria given in Chapter 2, those projects which
definitely will have no significant secondary impacts.
If there is any doubt on your part about the potential
for these impacts, a Level B or C analysis is required.
The output of Level A is part of an environmental assess-
ment supporting the finding of no significant (secondary)
impact, in those cases where the Level A analysis results
in this decision, or a brief internal memorandum stating
the need for further analysis of the project.
Level B analysis is directed to a community audience and
focuses primarily on socioeconomic impacts. We recommend
that the data for this analysis be supplied primarily by
the applicant or readily available published data sources,
thereby significantly reducing the burden upon the reviewer.
In those cases where the Level B review is being carried out
by an EPA regional office, data collected from the applicant
or from these published sources can be organized in the form
of an Environmental Information Document.
At Level B, quantification of socioeconomic impacts is required,
but quantification of secondary 'physical impacts is not required.
However, at Level B, you should do a qualitative review of air,
water, and sensitive area impacts, focusing on issues such as
local controls over sensitive area development, and the present
air and water quality situation in the impact area. If the
Level B criteria indicate that there are potential effects of
the project sufficient to require an EIS, then secondary
physical impacts can be treated in considerable detail, with
quantification, at Level C.
The output of Level B is a short paper which quantifies
socioeconomic impacts, and which points out any potential
secondary physical impacts resulting from residential
growth. Ideally, this paper, which can be part of an
environmental assessment, requires a limited effort on your
part to modify information provided primarily by the appli-
cant or from published sources.
The principal product of the Level C analysis is that section
of an environmental impact statement devoted to the secondary
impacts of the new source. This analysis will cover both
socioeconomic and physical secondary impacts. The effort
required on your part to carry out the Level C procedures
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is consistent with recent current practices concerning the
preparation of EISs by the regional offices, regional
office contractors, and state review groups, and is also
consistent with the intent of CEQ to have EPA and other
agencies produce environmental impact statements which
are "analytic, rather than encyclopedic," with "impacts
discussed in proportion to their significance."*
1.4 SCOPE OF THIS MANUAL
Each user of this manual should be aware of its limitations and intended
uses. This manual was written under the sponsorship of EPA's Office of
Environmental Review. It is intended that this manual be used solely for
assessment of the secondary impacts resulting from the location of new facili-
ties. Although written under a contract concerned with new source facilities
for which an NPDES permit is being sought, the techniques in this manual have
wider application to all types of projects undergoing environmental review,
and we encourage this use of the manual. However, although there are techni-
ques in this manual that are relevant to the assessment of primary (direct)
impacts, we do not intend that the techniques be used for that purpose.
This manual is designed to be used for assessment of secondary impacts.
This is not a manual of mitigation measures.
The appropriate users of this manual are the enforcement branch and
environmental impact branch of the EPA regional offices; state and local
agencies responsible for environmental review; interested parties to the
review process; and any firms or individuals under contract to prepare an
environmental impact statement for a new facility. All of these parties can
benefit from the procedures given in this manual.
An underlying assumption of this manual is that, although the secondary
imapcts of a project can be significant, it is appropriate, given resource
constraints on the part of EPA regional offices and other users, to assess
these impacts using less complex, yet accurate, techniques. The reliance
on simplifying assumptions and rules-of-thumb is consistent with the limited
resources available to the regional offices and other prospective users, and
should increase the utilization of this manual.
In preparing this manual, we reviewed existing mathematical models and
other methodologies for secondary impact assessment.** This review included
gravity models for the allocation of residential growth, cohort-survival
models for the analysis of labor force availability, and boomtown models for
*40 CPR 1502.2(a) and (b).
**Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. "Induced Impacts of New Source
Industries: Study and EIS Preparation Manual Development," Report #5—Review
of Modeling Literature, for Office of Federal Activities, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, September 6, 1979.
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the study of the problems of rapid growth in smaller communities. In
general, no comprehensive model or methodologies for assessing secondary
impacts from the siting of new facilities exist. The existing techniques
typically provide an exceedingly detailed analysis of a single or small
group of secondary impact areas, and are inappropriate as substitutes for
the specific procedures in this manual. Therefore, although you may wish
to substitute specific methodologies for selected impact areas, we do not
recommend this approach.
1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THIS MANUAL
The next three chapters of this manual are devoted respectively to Levels
A, B, and C, the purposes of which have been briefly discussed in this chapter.
Throughout each chapter examples, incorporated into figures or tables, are
used to explain specific techniques or problems. These figures and tables
supplement the text, and are not meant to interrupt it.
The appendices provide information integral to the user manual; this
information has been put at the end of the manual to enhance its readability.
Included are detailed examples of specific procedures, tables of infrastruc-
ture standards, and other elements which are important, but too lengthy to
be easily incorporated into the body of the manual. Reference is made to
these appendices throughout the next three chapters.
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Chapter 2
LEVEL A ANALYSIS
2.1 INTRODUCTION TO LEVEL A ANALYSIS
The purpose of Level A is to determine whether new residential develop-
ment will be required to accommodate the direct and indirect employment
demands of the facility. The major elements of the Level A analysis include
(see Figure 2):
• an initial telephone or mail contact with the applicant
• an initial meeting with the applicant
• a request by the reviewer that the applicant complete
preliminary application materials.(D These materials
should include information about some of the issues
raised by the questions shown in Figure 3. Figure 3
is not a formal questionnaire to be answered by all
permit applicants.
• a decision by the reviewer as to whether the applicant's
facility qualifies as a new source.
• a decision either 1) that additional, more detailed
analysis of the new source application is required
to determine potential secondary impacts, or 2) that
construction or operation of the new source will
result in no significant impacts, in which case an
environmental assessment must be written to support
this finding. The criteria for these decisions are
outlined below.
2.2 STEP 1: SUGGESTED LEVEL A SCREENING QUESTIONS
The preliminary application materials typically requested of new source
applicants are often oriented toward primary, rather than secondary, impacts.
To provide a proper basis for the assessment of secondary impacts, we have
provided a list of possible questions in Figure 3.
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Initial
Contact
Initial
Meeting
LEVEL A
Preliminary
Application
Materials
New Source
Determination
Step 1:
Suggested Level
A Screening
Questions
Preliminary
NEPA
Step 2:
Apply Level A
Decision
Criteria
Areawide
Assessment
BID or Other
Data Collection
Source
Figure 2. Flowchart of Level A Activities.
FNSI » finding of no significant impact
EIS = environmental impact statement
EID » environmental information document
Areawide assessment - see glossary
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We are not proposing a formal standardized Level A questionnaire because
current NEPA regulations require that facilities be treated on a case-by-case
basis. This implies that a formal, structured questionnaire to be answered
by all applicants is inappropriate for the initial assessment of potential
secondary impacts.
The questions in Figure 3, therefore, are meant to suggest information
that you should obtain from the applicant or from other sources noted in
the questions. We recommend that, fo± each facility, you consider the issues
raised by the questions.
On May 19, 1980, EPA issued consolidated permit program requirements
governing the Hazardous Waste Management program under the Resource Conser-
vation and Recovery Act (RCRA) , the Underground Injection Control Program
under the Safe Drinking Water Act, the Prevention of Significant Deterioration
(PSD) Program under the Clean Air Act, and the National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System Program and State Dredge or Pill ("404") programs under
the Clean Water Act. These requirements include specific forms that are to
be used by EPA and State agencies who are requesting information from permit
applicants. Questions 1 and 3 in Figure 3 are consistent with the consoli-
dated permitting requirements. The other questions in the Figure are
necessary to properly screen for secondary impacts, but these questions do
not conflict with and are also consistent with the consolidated permitting
requirements .
Reference is made throughout the questions to the impact area. The
impact area at Level A is defined as the county containing the new source
facility (the 'host county1), and any county contiguous to the host county.
This definition is simple , but provides a reasonable approximation of the
impact area, consistent with the initial screening function of Level A.
Note that Questions 2, 3, and 4 in Figure 3 are concerned with a geo-
graphic area more limited than the impact area, as defined above. These
three questions are concerned only with the more immediate area around the
site of the facility. Questions 2 refers particularly to an area (the area
of operation) within a mile of, and including, the facility, whereas Ques-
tions 3 and 4 refer to a larger area within five to 10 miles of, and
including, the facility.
The 23 questions in Figure 3 are intended to focus on the potential
for secondary impacts, although these questions may also serve to screen
for potential primary impacts. We have developed this list of possible
questions for screening secondary impacts because 1) there is often
little or no comprehensive assessment of these impacts by environmental
reviewers, and b) secondary impacts alone may be sufficient grounds for
denying a permit.
These questions are not unduly difficult for the applicant to answer.
Some of the information required does presuppose that the applicant has made
40 CFR 122 to 125.
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Figure 3
PROPOSED qUESTIONS FOR SCREENING POTENTIAL SECONDARY IMPACTS (LEVEL A)
1. What is your Standard Industrial Classification number? If more than one
SIC applies to your facility, list up to four in descending order of
importance.
2. Submit a topographic map of the proposed operation area; this map should
extend at least one mile beyond property boundaries. The suggested source
for this is a USGS topographical map (1:24,000 scale). You should include
the following information on the map:
a) the outline of the facility
b) the location of each of its proposed and existing intake and
discharge structures
c) the location of each hazardous waste treatment, storage, or
disposal facility
d) the location of each well where fluid is injected underground
e) the location of all springs, rivers, and other surface water
bodies in the map area.
3. Check the categories which best describe the area surrounding the site on
which the proposed facility will be constructed, i.e., the area shown on
the above map.
. Urban Shopping Center
Suburban Industrial Park
Small Town Commercial Strip
Rural Housing Development
Other (explain)
4. Submit a more general location map (8-1/2 by 11 inches) which shows town
and highway numbers, and which pinpoints the proposed area of operation.
5. Is your facility to be constructed near lands of 25 percent or greater
slope? If this information is unknown, consult the topographical map
submitted in response to Question #2 above, available from USGS.
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Figure 3 continued
6. Are there any sites of historic, architectural, or archeological or
cultural value within the impact area? If so, please name them.
If this information is unknown, contact the Division of Cultural
Resources at the regional office of the Department of the Interior
and refer to the National Register of Historic Places, or contact
the State Historic Preservation Officer.
7. Are there any endangered species known to inhabit the impact area?
If so, name them. If this information is unknown, contact the
Office of Endangered Species under the Office of Federal Assistance,
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service at the regional office of the Depart-
ment of the Interior. Refer to the Federal Register of Endangered
Species. Information on marine species may also be obtained from the
Office of Marine Mammals and Endangered Species of the National Marine
Fisheries Service, which operates under the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
8. Does the impact area contain a State or federally designated wild
and scenic river, or one authorized for further study? If so,
please name that river. If this information is unknown, please
contact the Heritage Conservation and Recreation Service of the
regional office of the Department of the Interior.
9. Does the impact area contain a local, state or Federal recreation area?
If so, please name them. If Federal recreation areas are unknown,
contact the National Park Service of the regional office of the Depart-
ment of the Interior.
10. Does the impact area contain wetlands or floodplains? If so, please
name them. If this information is unknown, please contact the Environ-
mental Office of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service of the regional
office of the Department of Interior. State departments of fish and
game are also a source for this information.
11. Does the impact area contain significant agricultural lands? If unknown,
please contact the Soil Conservation Service at the regional office of
the Department of Agriculture.
12. is any portion of the impact area within a coastal zone? If this is
unknown, contact the State Coastal Zone Management Office. (Usually
a subdivision of the State Office of Environmental Affairs or Natural
Resources Division.) While the state office is a preferable source of
information, the Coastal Zone Information Center at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the Director of the
State Programs Office at NOAA also can provide pertinent information.
2-5
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Figure 3 continued
13. Does the impact area contain an aquifer or other source of-potable
water? If this is unknown, contact the State Water Resources
Division, which, in conjunction with the United States Geological
Survey, broadly maps the aquifers in:the state. For a more specific
delineation, contact the local Board of Health.
14. Are any mandatory Class I PSD areas located in the impact area? If
this information is unknown, contact a) the state air agency, and
speak with an individual responsible for the state implementation
plan (SIP), or b) the Air and Hazardous Materials Division of the
EPA Regional Office that serves your state.
15. Is the impact area attainment, nonat'tainment, or unclassified in terms
of meeting national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS)? If this
information is unknown, contact the same sources listed under Question
14.
16. What is the expected employment of your facility when operating at
capacity?
17. What is the expected employment of your facility during the peak
construction phase? (See Appendix I.C and the last paragraph of
Chapter 3, Section 3.8, for a discussion of possible impacts caused
by construction workers.)
18. HOW many employees will have to move into the area to satisfy your
employment requirements a) for the peak construction phase, b) for
operations?
19. How many new housing units will be required to accommodate the number
of employees during the peak construction period?
20. Are there any other businesses of which you are aware that are moving
into the area to supply materials to or purchase products from your
operation specifically?
21.. Briefly describe any anticipated effects on the surrounding area from
construction or operation of the facility. These effects might
include, but are not limited to: changes in residential or commercial
development; changes in land use; etc.
22. Briefly describe any social or economic benefits expected to result
from construction or operation of the facility.
23. Are you aware of any significant public objections to construction or
operation of the proposed facility? If yes, please describe these
objections.
2-6
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a careful site and feasibility study of the proposed facility location, and
that the applicant is reasonably aware of physical and social conditions in
the impact area. However, most information is obtainable from sources other
than the applicant, if desired. As a screening analysis intended to require
one day or less, we encourage the participation of the applicant in provid-
ing this information.
Questions 1 through 4 are designed to provide background information
about the nature and location of the facility. Questions 5 through 15 are
designed to determine whether there are any sensitive features which might
be affected by new residential growth in the impact area. Questions 16
through 20 ask the respondent to estimate the direct and indirect employment
and housing effects of the facility, and Questions 21 through 23 require
that some thought be given to social or economic effects in the impact area,
as well as public attitudes toward the • facility.
Your primary sources of information for these questions are:.
• the new source applicant
• those agencies listed in Questions 5 through 15.
Additional sources of information are:
• local economic development officials
• regional and local planning groups
• local chambers of commerce
• other sources listed throughout Chapters 2, 3, and 4.
Your reliance on these additional sources may add considerably £0 the time
and labor required to complete Level A. Ideally, Level A should be a quick
screening process which relies primarily on the applicant to supply the
required information. You may, however, use any other source of informa-
tion listed in this manual which you consider to be appropriate.
2.3 STEP 2: APPLY LEVEL A DECISION CRITERIA
In deciding whether to proceed to Level B or C, consider the following:
• the answer to Questions 18 and 19 will indicate whether
population or new residential growth is expected from
construction or operation of the facility. Any new
population or residential growth could endanger the
sensitive areas listed in the set of questions, or
could have uncertain social or economic effects and,
therefore, a Level B or C analysis is appropriate.
2-7
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• if you are aware of significant public objections to
the facility, a Level B or C analysis is appropriate.
• if there are other major facilities or businesses
locating in the impact area — whether related to the
applicant's facility or not — a Level B or C
analysis is appropriate.
• if construction or operation of the facility is expected
to result in changes in land use, such as the construction
of major road facilities, the conversion of residential
areas to commercial or industrial use, or the conversion
of agricultural land to other uses, a Level B or C analysis
is appropriate. At Levels B or C a more detailed assessment
of these changes in land use can be undertaken, to consider
the type, location, and timing of these changes. Factors
that should be considered in deciding whether to proceed
with further analysis include a) the nature and extent of
the vacant land subject to increased development pressure
as a result of the new source, b) the increases in popula-
tion or population density which may be induced, c) the
nature of land use regulations in the impact area and the
potential effects of these regulations on development and
the environment. If changes in land use are expected, and
there is any uncertainty about the significance of these
changes, a Level B or C analysis is appropriate.
If none of the above criteria are satisfied, then we recommend a finding of
no significant impact (FNSI). There may, however, be significant primary
impacts resulting from the facility which require further review by the usei
These primary impacts are not the concern of this manual, and nothing in
this manual is designed to assess them. The information required to answer
the questions in Figure 3 is designed for screening secondary impacts only.
2.4 SUMMARY OF LEVEL A ANALYSIS
• Level A is the first level of analysis of the potential
secondary impacts of the facility.
• the information required for Level A is shown in the form
of the screening questions listed in Figure 3.
• do not use Figure 3 as a formal standardized questionnaire.
Rather, use these screening questions as a summary of
information needed to screen secondary impacts. Depending
upon the type of facility proposed and its geographic loca-
tion, you should select the information you will require for
screening the project.
2-8
-------
the questions in Figure 3 are directed solely toward
secondary impacts. Primary impacts are not considered
in this manual.
2-9
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Chapter 3
LEVEL B ANALYSIS
3.1 INTRODUCTIN TO LEVEL B ANALYSIS
Level B is designed primarily, to quantify the socioeconomic effects of
the facility, and comprises generally only a very limited consideration of
secondary physical effects. The quantification of socioeconomic effects
is based on multipliers calculated by the user, although we have provided
default values for some steps. Level B also requires input from local
sources in the impact area, such as economic development officials and
realtors.
Figure 4 is a flow chart of the major steps in the Level B analysis.
The principal output of this analysis is part of the assessment summary,*
which supports a finding of no significnt impact, or which recommends a
Level C (EIS) analysis of secondary impacts.
The data required for Level B are readily available either from primary
or published sources,** including the location study that the applicant may
have^completed for site selection. We recommend that the applicant be
required to supply all applicable information, as the Level B methodology
presupposes that limited resources are available to the user at this stage
of environmental review, i.e., prior to the preparation of an EIS. However,
independent verification of some of the information supplied by the applicant
or other sources is desirable, and is discussed in the context of individual
steps below.
If your resources allow you to expend more effort in tracking down data,
steps in Chapter 4 (Level C) which correspond to those in Level B list addi-
tional sources.
The results of Level B analysis, incorporated into the assessment summary,
are directed to a community audience, and emphasize socioeconomic effects. At
*Known as the environmental assessment in CEQ nomenclature.
**The recommended data sources are provided in the discussion of each step
in this chapter.
3-1
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Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
Step 9
Step 10
Step 11
FNSI
Define the
Impact Area
Estimate
Direct
Employment
Calculate
Non-Local
Employment
Calculate
Indirect
Employment
Calculate Direct
and Indirect
Population Effects
Estimate the Number
of New Households
Review the Existing
Housing Market
Estimate the Number
of New Housing
Units Required
Review Air, Water,
and Sensitive Area
Potential Impacts
4-
Apply Level B
Decision Criteria
I
Prepare an Assessment
Summary
Level B
IEIS I
Figure 4. Flowchart of Level B Activities
3-2
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an early stage in the environmental review process, a Level B analysis
provides an indication of the population and employment effects of the
facility. These effects are of obvious concern to interested parties in
the impact area.
In addition to these socioeconomic effects, you are required to do a
qualitative review of secondary air, water, and sensitive area (i.e.,
physical) impacts. This analysis of physical impacts does not rely on com-
plex quantitative techniques. If the Level B criteria indicate that a
Level c analysis is appropriate, then secondary impacts can be quantified
and treated in considerable detail during the preparation of the EIS.
3.2 NOTE TO EPA REGIONAL OFFICE USERS OF THIS MANUAL
Data solicited from the applicant for Level B can be solicited in a
form which corresponds to an environmental information document.
Some regional offices rely upon an areawide environmental assessment
as one tool to measure the potential for secondary impacts, particularly
upon sensitive areas. However, we recommend a Level B analysis in addition
to any analysis based on the areawide assessment.
3.3 STEP 1: DEFINE THE IMPACT AREA
To reduce the effort required to collect the data for Level B, define
the impact area along county lines, rather than sub-county government juris-
dictions, as is the case at Level C. The impact area at Level B specifically
includes the county containing the new source facility (the 'host county1),
and any other counties in the facility's commutershed which are expected to
contribute to the facility's labor pool.
-------
environment which may occur if direct employment requirements cannot be met
from the local population in the impact area.
3.5 STEP 3: CALCULATE NONLOCAL EMPLOYMENT
If the new source is expected to create E* new jobs, as estimated in
the previous step, the local(D labor force may supply some of this employ-
ment. The remaining increment in employment (E) is:
E s E* - Elocal
Calculating the local component requires a consideration of
• levels of unemployment in the impact area
• skills required by the new source relative to those
available in the impact area
• wages paid by the new source relative to prevailing
wages.
Ask the^new source applicant and local economic development officials to esti-
mate this local component for that year within the ten-year period representing
the maximum direct employment (E*) of the project (from Step 2). Using the
example cited in Table 1, the year of maximum direct employment is 1981. Using
the local component, calculate the increment in employment (E) that must be met
by new workers moving into the impact area. This represents the maximum incre-
ment for the ten-year period of analysis (E ).
IT13.2C
In using this technique, it is extremely important that you require the
applicant and economic development officials to provide as much detail as is
available concerning the existing communities from which the facility expects
to draw both temporary (construction) and permanent (operation) local workers.
It is also very important that you distinguish, with the help of the applicant
and other officials, the temporary local workforce from the permanent local
workforce. There are several considerations involved:
• temporary workers often are more willing to commute long
distances to a work site than are permanent workers
• if a large temporary workforce is required — and this work-
force cannot be supplied locally, even allowing for those who
commute long distances — then a major influx of temporary
workers is likely. Resulting impacts will happen quickly,
and there will be limited time for the community to prepare
for them. After a specified period of time, temporary workers
are likely to leave the area, leaving behind a small, permanent
workforce, the effects of which will be qualitatively different.
"Local" refers to any of the counties in the impact area,
3-4
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Year
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
SOURCE :
TABLE 1
PROJECT EMPLOYMENT
Warner Valley Station — Washington County Utah
Operating or Permanent
Construction Workforce
1 0
258 0
905 0
1016 °
812 108
146 112
0 108
0 108
0 108
0 108
Mountain West Research. Economic/Demographic Assessment Manual —
Current Practices, Procedural Recommendations, and a Test Case. Prepared
for Bureau of Reclamation, November 1977, Contract Number 07-DR-50180, p. 212.
3-5
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As a quick check on the estimate of the local component (E, } , you
do the following: local' ' you
(1) obtain Current Population Survey Labor Force Estimates from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
(2) for the counties in the impact area, extract the data for
total labor force, percent of labor force unemployed, and
total unemployment
(3) although there is a one- to two-year long lag for these data,
the estimate of total unemployment provides a rough estimate
of the number of local individuals available to work at the
new facility.
As an additional check:
(1) ask the new source applicant or local economic development
officials for the current unemployment rate in the impact
area
(2) apply this rate to the total labor force estimates from the
BLS study, to obtain another rough estimate of the number
of individuals available.
You should carry out Step 3 at least twice:
(1) first for the year of maximum direct construction employment (E )
(2) second for the year of stable direct operating employment (E );
this operations year must fall within the ten-year period of0
analysis.
There is the possibility that the year of maximum total direct employment may be
a year other than those in which either maximum construction or stable operating
employment occurs. This maximum total employment will be the sum of construction
and operating employment for that year. If the employment profile for the pro-
ject reflects this pattern, then Step 3 should be carried out a third time
(3) for the year of maximum total direct employment (E ); this total
employment will be the sum of construction and operations for
that year. Usually, however, E. will be the same as either
E or E . K
. Ec and E0 wil1 represent the employment increment at peak construction and
stable operations, respectively. E , if calculated, will represent the employ-
ment increment at peak (total) employment. You should use these estimates to
carry out steps 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9. Each of these steps should be repeated for
we peak construction, stable operations, 'and (if different) , peak total employ-
3-6
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3.6 STEP 4: CALCULATE INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT
This step involves the calculation of a multiplier to account for the employ-
in^-ront (E) of the facility. This multiplier is applied to the employment
(E) estimated in Step 3 above to derive total direct and indirect em-
ployment (ET) attributable to the facility.
Explanation of Procedure
For any_ type of employment (T) , there is an associated population (P, number
of persons per worker) which is defined by the constant, a, where
/T (2)
Furthermore, non-basic employment (S, defined below) is linked to population,
/p (3)
The total direct and indirect employment (ET) impacts of the facility are:
T? s
ET
A more detailed derivation of equation (4) is given in Appendix I.A.
To calculate the ratios in (2) and (3) above, data on employment by major
economic sector (Table 2) and population are required. Obtain these data for
the most recent year available, but in every case population and employment
data should be for the same year.
Population data are available from the Bureau of the Census, Current Popu-
lation Reports, Series P-26, which is part of the Federal-State Cooperative
Program for Population Estimates. A report is issued annually for each state
and for counties within each state.
Employment by the major sectors in Table 2 is available from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, States and Areas. This source
provides employment for each state and for 246 major labor areas. If at least
half of the impact area falls within a labor area, use the data for that labor
area to calculate (3). Otherwise, use state data.
Employment in agriculture is not available from the above source. For this
sector, two choices are possible:
* if 1978 population data are being used, consult the 1978
Census of Agriculture. Use the figure for farm operator's,
plus farm labor hired for more than 150 days. These data
are available on a county level, and can be aggregated to
derive other geographic units.
3-7
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TABLE 2
MAJOR ECONOMIC SECTORS
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Agriculture
Forestry and fisheries
Mining
Metal
Coal
Crude petroleum and natural gas
Nonmetallic, except fuels
Manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Textile mill products
Apparel and other fabric products
Lumber products and furniture
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Primary metals
Fabricated metals and ordnance
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery and supplies
Motor vehicles and equipment
Transportation equipment, except motor vehicles
Other manufacturing
Transportation, communications, and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Services
Government
Federal government
State government
Local government
3-8
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• if the population figures are collected for a year other
than 1978, use the 1974- or 1978 Census of Agriculture
and interpolate the data for intervening years.
The Census does not include employment in forestry and fisheries. If this
is a significant portion of the local economy, consult the State Division of
Employment Security or Department of Commerce to derive employment in these
sectors. To determine whether forestry and fisheries employment is a significant
portion of the local economy, consult County Business Patterns, an annual publica-
tion of the Census Bureau. This report lists first quarter and annual payroll,
and number of establishments by industry in each state, and these data can be
used as a rough guide to the relative role of forestry and fishery activity in
the state economy.
The calculation of the multiplier is dependent on the concept of basic versus
non-basic industries.
"The reason for the existence'and growth of a region —
whether it is a community or a small resource area at one
extreme or a huge metropolitan or resource region at the
other extreme — lies in the goods and services it pro-
duces locally but sells beyond its borders. These "basic"
activities not only provide the means of payment for raw
materials, food, and manufactured products which the region
cannot produce itself, but also support the service activi-
ties, which are principally local in productive scope and
market areas."*
Basic industries are, therefore, those the production or output of which supplies
a demand which is generated outside of the region, whereas a non-basic industry
satisfies a demand generated within the region,
Practically speaking, however, deciding whe'ther employment in an economic
sector is basic or non-basic is difficult. As a rule-of-thumb, the employment
in the following industries is always considered basic:
• agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
• mining
and employment in these sectors is always non-basic:
• construction
• transportation, communications and public utilities
• retail trade
• services
*Isard, Walter. Methods of Regional Analysis; An Introduction to Regional
Science. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1960,
3-9
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• local government
• finance, insurance, and real estate.
Employment in the four remaining sectors may be either basic or non-basic:
• manufacturing
• wholesale trade
• Federal government
• State government.
The method for determining the basic or non-basic nature of these sectors is a
location quotient. This is explained in Table 3, which provides a sample calcu-
lation for Steps 4 and 5.
After the allocation of employment to basic and non-basic components is
completed, non-basic employment (S) is divided by population (P, equation (3)),
and total direct and indirect employment (E ) is calculated (Equation (4)).
Consult Figure 5 for a detailed example of this procedure.
3.7 STEP 5: CALCULATE DIRECT AND INDIRECT POPULATION EFFECTS
This step relies upon equations (2) and (3) to derive the total population
impact attributable to both the direct and indirect employment (ET) caused by
the new source. This population effect (P_) is defined:
: otE _ _
PT = I^B" " " ET (5)
Appendix I.A provides more detail concerning this equation. Figure 5 provides
an example of its application.
3.8 STEP 6: ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS
To calculate the number of housing units necessary to accommodate the new
population (P ) in the impact area, estimate the number of households implied by
this population. The simplest method is to use a coefficient of average house-
hold size (H ), to calculate the number of households (HH),
HH =PT/H (to
Hav (5)
Since 1950, average household size nationally has declined steadily from 3,37
to 2.86 in 1977.* A coefficient of 2.85 to 2.95 is a reasonable default value.
*U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of
the United States, 1978, p. 43.
3-10
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This example utilizes Albany-Schnectady-Troy, under the assumption that'
a major portion of the impact area falls within this major labor area. The
1978 data are used. Table 3 details the data required to calculate the ratios
in equations (2) and (3) of this chapter. The columns show the following:
(1) 1978 employment (in thousands) by sector in Albany-
Schnectady- Troy,
(2) the ratio of this employment to total employment in
AIbany-Schnectady-Troy,
(3) 1978 employment (in thousands) by sector in New York
State,
(4) the ratio of this employment to total employment in
New York State,
(5) the location quotient, which represents column (2)
divided by column (4),
(6) and (7) the employment in column (1) is allocated to one
of these two columns, depending on whether the employment
is basic or non-basic. In Section 3.6 we stated that some
sectors are always basic or non-basic, and there is therefore
no need for a location quotient to make this decision. These
sectors are denoted as "B" or "NB" on Table 3. Columns (2),
(4), and (5) therefore read N/A for these sectors. For all
other sectors, a location quotient must be calculated. These
sectors are denoted as "mixed" on Table 3.
To calculate this quotient, you must compare employment in the region most
closely approximating the impact area (R&) to either state or national employ--
ment data (R%). RB will be based on state data if R& is either a major labor
area, an SMSA, or an aggregation of county or community data. At Level B,
RA m
-------
is producing in excess of local needs and -Is satisifying a demand external to
the region. Conversely, if the ratio is 1.0 or less, the industry is producing
at or less than local requirements, may lie a net importer, and is in any case
responding only to internally-generated demand.
It should be noted that "other manufacturing" includes all manufacturing
not specifically included in the remaining manufacturing categories, including:
9 stone, clay, and glass products
0 instrwnents and related products
0 rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
0 leather and leather products
0 miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
As illustrated in Table S3 employment data are not always available for
each of the second-level sectors in manufacturing. This is particularly true
for major labor areas, few of which are expected to have employment in all
economic sectors. You must be aware, then, that the data may be more aggregate
than shown in the table.
The following is a step-by-step calculation of total direct and indirect
employment and population attributable to the new source.
(I) The peak employment of the new source (E*) is expected to be
90 construction and 10 operation workers. Of this requirement,
all but- 50 workers will be supplied locally (Elocal)• There-
fore, the employment increment (E),
E = E* = Etoaat
is SO persons.
(2) The population (P) of Albany-Schnectady-Troy as of July 1, 1978
was 792,300. Total employment (T) in all sectors in 1978 was
331 j900. Therefore, the population-employment ratio (<*).
P_ _ 792,200
•T ~ 331,900
is 2.39.
(3) , Based on the analysis in Table 3, non-basic employment (S) in
Albany-Schnectady-Troy in 1978 was 228,600. Population (P) was
792,300. Therefore,
S m 228,600 m
B P 792,300 '29
3-12
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(4) The total direct and indirect employment impacts By,
F __£ 50
*T ~ 2 . ag - i-(2.39 x .29)
are 162 persons* and the implicit employment multiplier is
162/50 = 3.24*.
(5) The total direct and indirect population impacts (Py),
PT = ~E = «BT= 2.39 x 162
1 . ccg
is 387 persons.
Repeat this analysis for the year of stable operating workforce,
i.e., after construction is completed. Also repeat this analysis
for the year of maximum total direct employment, if it is different
from either of the two years already considered.
*There are projects which have a large and extremely short-term peak
construction employment relative to the stable operations workforce.
In these cases, the calculated employment multiplier may overstate the
short-term effects, because economic activity will not expand to the
degree that the multiplier indicates for such a short-term peak. The
implicit multiplier should, therefore, be scaled down to account for
the short-term nature of this peak. In boomtown situations, the
implicit multiplier typically will range from 1.2 to l.S, and this is
a reasonable default value range for projects that meet the types of
conditions described above.
3-13
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Table 3
CALCULATION OF EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER FOR ALBANY*aCHENECTADY-TROY, 1.978
Albany-Schenectady-
Hew York State
Troy
i .Vjriculc'-r*, forestry
i M.i.-.ir.g
j Cifiscruccisr.
1
| Manufacturing
and risheries (3)
(B)
(MB)
(Mixed)
(1)
1.3
0.2
10.7
. (2)
N/A
N/A
:VA
(3)
43.9
6.3
197.5
(4)
H/A
N/A
N/A
Location AlbanY-Schsnectddv-
guotient Troy
Basic Non-Basic
(5) (6) (7)
N/A 1,3
a/A 0 . 2
N/A 10.7
feed i Sir-dred Products
Textile Mill Products
Apparel i Other Fabric Products
luzber Products & Furniture
Pacer S Allied Products
Printiac s Publishing
Chenical* S Allied Products
Secrslev.- Refining
?rLjiary Metals ~~
Fabricated Metals S Ordinances _
Maci-.i.-.ery, except Electrical —
Electrical Machinery S Supplies
Mocsr Vehicles 6 Equipment
Trira-jcrsacion Squipa««t, except Motor
Venisles —
Other Manufacturing
Trir.scortation, Communications and
Public Utilities (NB)
Ai:cle«ale Trade (Mixed)
.detail Trade
-------
Some observers have argued that construction workers typically do not bring
their families with them to the impact area, that they typically head households
smaller than the average cited above, or that they are disproportionately single
relative to the general population. In addition, some studies suggest that
construction workers are willing to commute much further than other workers, in
order to avoid the necessity to either leave or move their families. The evi-
dence is sufficiently contradictory; it is reasonable to state that 200 to 300
people will accompany every 100 construction workers who move into the impact
area.* This ratio is consistent with the average household size assumption
above, and is also consistent with the population-employment ratio in equation
(5).
3.9 STEP 7: REVIEW THE EXISTING HOUSING MARKET
Consider all of the counties in the impact area as a single housing market.
If there are vacant units in this market (either owner or rental), the new house-
holds (HH, derived from PT) will be allocated to them.
Because of a lack of generalizable data concerning housing preferences, no
rules-of-thumb are available to allocate the incoming population to housing of
specific characteristics. It is assumed that housing preferences are adaptable
in the short-term, i.e., that the incoming population will settle in the avail-
able existing housing to the extent possible,
Identifying the number of vacant housing units by county in the impact area
is a difficult task, if the procedures are to be consistent with the limited
resources allotted to Level B, The following steps are required:
a) Analyze the number and composition of housing units in the
impact area using the most recent U.S. Census of Housing.
A volume entitled "General Housing Characteristics" is avail-
able for each state. Each volume provides data for counties,
and for places of 1,000 inhabitants or more.
• For counties, extract the information on "total housing
units", and "vacant for sale only or for rent." No data
on composition of these units are provided (i.e, single-
family, etc.).
• For places of 1,000 to 2,499 inhabitants, extract the
same information as for counties. Again, housing com-
position is not given,
• For places of 2,500 or more inhabitants, extract the
data for "all year-round housing units", "vacant year-
round units", and "units in structure." Table 4 shows
the 1970 data for Batavia, New York. Note that the
data cover the composition of the housing stock (single-
family, multi-family, mobile home or trailer) with the
exception of group quarters.
*See Appendix I.C for a brief summary of construction worker case studies
3-15
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TABLE 4
EXTRACT FROM 1970 CENSUS OF HOUSING FOR BATAVI A, NEW YORK
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Census of Housing; 1970, "General
Housing Characteristics", Final Report (HC(H-A34> New York.
All year-round housing units
Vacant year-round units
Units in structure
All year-round units
1
2 or more
Mobile home or trailer
Owner-occupied
1
2 or more
Mobile home or trailer
Renter-occupied
1
2 or more
Mobile home or trailer
Number
5,867
197
5,867
3,584
2,280
3
3,717
3,179
536
2
1,953
351
1,601
1
3-16
-------
Although the Census information may be quite old, use it to
provide an initial estimate of the amount and type of avail-
able housing in the impact area. In areas of high growth,
these figures at least provide a base from which current •
housing can be estimated.
The vacancy information provided by the Census in the above
source, although not current, provides an indication of the
number of vacant units that might be available relative to
the total number of available housing units„
Precise local vacancy data are not readily available. Na-
tionally, recent vacancies in year-round units (for rent
and for sale) have averaged around 2.5 percent.* This may
translate to a significant number of units depending on
the available housing stock, e.g., in an area of 100,000
units, 250 will be vacant at this rate.
Although some of these units may be substandard and pre-
sumably unsuitable for year-round habitation by the in-
coming population, it is appropriate to assume that, in
periods of high demand for housing, a vacancy rate of
virtually zero is achievable. There is no compelling
evidence in the literature to document a 'structural va-
cancy rate1, i.e., a level of vacancy which cannot be
overcome no matter how high the demand for housing.
Practically speaking, vacancy rates vary significantly
by locality. The 1970 data for New York show that va-
cancies range from 3.1 percent inside SMSAs to 8.8 per-
cent outside, and from 3.0 percent in urban areas to 9.2
percent in rural areas, and that they show a similar
range for individual places in the state. Therefore, a
local estimate of housing vacancy rates is essential.
b) Contact three to five realtors serving the counties in the
impact area. These realtors may be identified by community
using the National Roster of Realtors,** a standard reference
publication. These realtors may also be identified through
the local economic development board or the local chamber of
commerce.
Provide these realtors with the number of households
represented by the incoming population that corresponds to
the maximum direct and indirect employment of the new
source (HH, from Step 6). Ask these realtors if this
number of vacant units is currently available in the
realtor's community or in surrounding communities within
the impact area.
As a check against the estimate of housing adequacy, ask
for a current housing vacancy rate (rental vs. owner, if
available). Apply this rate to the number of housing units
from Step 7a to derive a rough estimate of the number of
*U.S. Bureau of the Census. Current Housing Reports, Series H-lll.
**Stan Mats Communications, Inc. 427 Sixth Avenue, S.E., Cedar Rapids, Iowa
(319) 364-6032. 3_17
-------
vacant units.
Particularly for large projects, the applicant's site
selection study may contain a recent analysis of the
housing market, including a current estimate of the
number of vacant available units.
3.10 STEP 8: ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF NEW HOUSING UNITS REQUIRED
Discussions with realtors will indicate either that sufficient vacancies
currently exist to accommodate the new households, or that a housing shortfall
is probable. If the realtor indicates that insufficient units are available,
ask for an estimate of the number of available units, from which the shortfall
can be deduced. Similarly, having derived the number of vacant units using
vacancy rate information, another estimate of the shortfall can be derived.
The difference between the number of new households (from Step 6) and the
number of vacant units (from Step 7) represents the number of new units required
for the incoming population. Regardless of whether there are already plans to
construct this housing, and regardless of recent trends in new construction, the
fact that these units do not currently exist is a sign of potentially significant
housing and infrastructure problems in the impact area, as well as secondary
physical impacts resulting from this new growth.
3.11 STEP 9: REVIEW SELECTED PHYSICAL IMPACTS
It is desirable to evaluate secondary physical impacts at Level B, without
resorting to the quantification of these impacts required for the preparation
of an EIS (Level C, Chapter 4). This step concentrates particularly on air,
water, and sensitive area impacts, and comprises a qualitative assessment of
these issues,
Sensitive Areas
At Level A, you will have asked specific questions of the applicant (see
Figure 3) in order to identify sensitive areas in the impact area. Review the
answers to these questions, and use these answers as the basis for a rough
estimate of the percentage of the total acreage in the impact area which is
represented by sensitive lands. Determine whether there has been recent develop-
ment in sensitive areas, and also whether there are any controls over this type
of development. The best source for this information is the local planning
board or a regional planning group. You may obtain a recent land use map of
the impact area — the contents of these maps and probable sources for these
maps are discussed in Section 4,15, Level C.
Air and Water .
You should obtain the relevant State Implementation Plan (SIP) and 208 Plan for
the impact area, and review them for information concerning the current air
and water quality situation, e.g., location of major receiving waters, trends
in air and water quality in recent years, pressures on air and water quality
due to recent development activity, etc. The source for these reports is the
3-18
-------
areawide water quality management agency, and the state air pollution control
board or department of environmental affairs.
Some local jurisdictions produce their own SIPs or water quality management
plans. Consult the local or regional planning agency.
If you obtain a local land use map to identify and analyze sensitive areas,
use it also to identify areas where the water quality may be affected by secon-
dary development.
You should relate any potential secondary effects of the project — as
identified in the previous steps of Level B — to the primary effects of the
project, as well as to the current air and water quality situation. For example,
significant secondary growth in a nonattainment area will negatively affect
efforts to achieve compliance with air quality standards. Similarly, whereas
the primary air and water effects of a facility may be obvious and steps may
be undertaken to deal with them, the secondary effects may have received
no consideration, and may be unmanageable without additional mitigation measures.
You must never permit or otherwise give approval to any facility if the
facility does not conform to the State Implementation Plan (SIP) that applies
to the impact area.* The Level B qualitative analysis of air impacts may not
be sufficient to determine this conformity, in which case you should go to
Level C for further analysis of the air quality impacts of the facility,
3.12 STEP 10: APPLY LEVEL B DECISION CRITERIA
1) If no new housing units are required in the impact counties, assume
that additional infrastructure will not be required, that commercial development
will be quite limited, and that secondary physical impacts will not occur.
The recommended decision under these circumstances is a finding of no significant
(secondary) impact (FNSI),
2) If, however, new housing units are required to house new households
associated directly or indirectly with the new source, you must make a determin-
ation about the implications of this growth. We suggest the following rule-of-
thumb:
If the number of new housing units represents at least
a 5 percent increase in the number of housing units in
the impact area, preparation of an EIS is highly
recommended. In this context, new housing units include
conversion of quarters not previously offered as habitable
to the civilian population. This recommendation is based
on the potential for infrastructure overcrowding, as well
as the potential for secondary physical impacts arising
from mobile and stationary source emissions, the pressure
on sensitive areas from the land requirements of residen-
tial growth, and other effects discussed fully in Chapter
4. Regardless of the size or characteristics of the impact
area, a five percent increase in the housing unit base is
substantial.
*Clean Air Act, s. 176(c).
3-19
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3) If there is new housing growth expected which represents less than 5%
of the existing base and
• there are sensitive areas adjacent to or within the site
• some of these sensitive areas have been or are soon to be
developed
• there are few or no controls over sensitive area develop-
ment,
go to level C.
4) If there is new housing growth expected which is less than 5% of the
existing base, and if there are otHer known major facilities or businesses lo-
cating in the impact area, go to Level C. Consult the applicant and local eco-
nomic development officials to determine if other major facilities are known to
be moving into the area.
5) If there are significant public objections to the facility, and if any
new housing growth is expected, go to Level C.
6) If there is new housing growth expected which is less than 5% of the
existing base, and the impact area is nonattainment or in close proximity to a
Class I area, go to Level C.
Be cautious in applying the last four criteria. You should not, for example,
go to Level C if only five or ten units are to be constructed (provided this is
less than a 5% cutoff), given the probable error associated with the estimate
of new housing. In most cases, the magnitude of new housing — in those cases
where it is required — will be so great that preparation of an EIS is an
obvious step.
3.13 STEP 10: PPEPARE AN ASSESSMENT SUMMARY
The principal output of Level B is a short paper* which quantifies the
socioeconomic impacts of the project and which contains either a recommendation
for a Level C analysis (an EIS) or a finding of no significant impact.
Specifically, this paper should include:
• an estimate of the direct construction and operating employ-
ment of the facility for the first ten years (Step 2).
• an estimate of the maximum direct employment (E*) of the pro-
ject during peak construction, peak operations within the ten-
year period of analysis, and (if different), peak total
employment within the ten-year period of analysis (Step 2).
*ln the EPA Regional Office, this short paper would correspond to part of the
environmental assessment.
3-20
-------
• an estimate of the portion of this maximum direct employment that
will be supplied locally (Elqcal, Step 3)
• an estimate of the net employment increment (E) during these periods
of maximum direct employment (Step 3)
• an estimate of the indirect and induced employment (E , Step 4)
and population (P , Step 5) attributable to the employment
increment (E)
• an estimate of the number of households (HH) represented by
this new population (Step 6)
• an estimate of the number of new housing units, if any, re-
quired in the impact area to accommodate these households
(Steps 7 and 8)
• an identification of potential dangers to sensitive areas,
and air and water quality, posed by any new housing units,
or associated infrastructure (Step 9).
In general, physical impacts receive a limited consideration in Level B,
because of the difficulty of devising simple, yet accurate, techniques which
require limited time and labor.
We recommend that the Level B paper (the assessment summary for secondary
impacts) be no longer than one to three pages, and that it be incorporated as
part of the environmental assessment. Level B should take no longer than two
to three days total. An example of an assessment summary for a hypothetical
project is provided in Figure 6.
3-21
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Figure S
EXAMPLE OF AN ASSESSMENT SUMMARY FOR SECONDARY IMPACTS*
(The following discussion represents a hypothetical case)
The impact area of the proposed project is Quillwn County; the county
is geographically large enough (several thousand square miles) that the
majority of construction and operating workers can be expected to have
permanent or temporary residences in the county. The greatest distance
from any point in the county to the project is approximately 75 miles.
Peak employment will be 2,275 workers for eight to ten months during
the three-year construction phase. The stable operating workforce will be
about 300.
It is estimated that about 800 of the peak employment workforce will
come from Quillum County. This estimate is consistent with the high unem-
ployment rate in the county, and the relatively low skill level required to
perform many of the jobs.
Of the 300 workers required for operations, about 200 will be local
workers; 100 workers who possess skills not.available locally will come in
from outside Quillum County.
Total direct and indirect employment attributable to peak construction
will be about 2,275. Total net and indirect employment attributable to
long-term operations at the project will range from ISO to 280; this esti-
mate points up the considerable discrepancy between short and long-term
effects of the project.
The number of new households^ short-term will be about 1,500, and long-
term about 100 to 200. Based on information concerning housing availability,
there are sufficient units to accommodate the number of new households attri-
butable to the long-term effects of the project. There is, however, a
severe deficiency of housing^ for the new households associated with the short-
term construction peak. This deficiency ranges from 1,250 to 1,300 units,
equivalent to about 9% of the current housing stock in the county.
Sensitive Areas
The existing wetlands, historic landmarks, wildlife refuges, and parks
in the impact area will not be affected by secondary housing or commercial
growth. However, the site of the project, and the possible sites of resi-
dential and cormercial growth, lie entirely within a coastal zone. There is
potential for significant and unpredictable effects from primary and secon-
dary activities associated with the project. Despite the controls nominally
provided by the State's CZM plan, the project is a substantial operation
which may permanently alter the charac isr of the zone.
*In preparing the assessment summary, you should emphasize the results from
each step of the analysis, rather than detailing the specific calculations.
3-22
-------
Air Quality
The proposed site and the entire impact area is a class II area. There
are two Class I areas within ten miles of the site. The air quality effects
of secondary residential and commercial growth, particularly for mobile
sources, will be measurable in the short-term, but long-term residential and
commercial growth should have a minimal effect on air quality.
Water Quality
There are not expected to be any significant secondary impacts on fresh-
water resources. All areas where primary and secondary activity would take
place are within a defined coastal zone. This area consists of numerous is-
lands, salt marshes, bogs, and other marine features, and it supports a
diversity of habitats. There are commercially important communities of
shellfish and finfish, as well as species of aquatic mammals, including por-
poises and great whales. The coastline and communities are important areas
for marine birds. In large part, the success of these species is attribut-
able to the minimal human presence in the area.
The potential primary effects of the project on the coastal zone are
far more significant than either the short-term or long-term effects of
residential or other secondary growth. However, any residential growth in
a coastal zone such as this one—which has a limited amount of current de-
velopment—can have measurable deleterious effects and should be carefully
evaluated. Although the town plans to revise its comprehensive land use plan
to account for the potential effects of the project, we recommend more ana-
lysis of the project's secondary effects.
Conclusion
1) During the peak construction phase, there is a projected deficiency
of 1,250 to 1,300 housing units, representing about 9% of the total housing
base in Quillum County. Although the company plans to bring in temporary
housing, the potential effects of this deficiency require a Level C analysis.
This deficiency may result in serious infrastructure overcrowding, secondary
physical impacts from mobile homes, and stationary source emissions, pressure
on sensitive areas, and other effects.
2) The facility site and the probable site of most secondary growth are
in the coastal zone. The possible impingement of this secondary growth on
sensitive coastal areas, combined with the potential primary effects of con-
struction and operation, requires a Level C analysis.
3-23
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CHAPTER 4
LEVEL C ANALYSIS
4.1 INTRODUCTION TO LEVEL C ANALYSIS
The principal output of Level C is that portion of an environmental impact
statement that considers secondary impacts. Only secondary impacts are covered
by the techniques in this chapter. The prospective users of these Level C tech-
niques are the environmental impact statement preparation staffs at EPA regional
offices, agencies of state and local government concerned with environmental re-
view, regional planning commissions, contractors hired by these organizations,
and others interested in the secondary impacts of any facility. This manual
should also be provided to any interested applicant whose facility is subject to
environmental review.
It is helpful to refer to Figure 7 while using this Chapter. Figure 7
shows the causal mechanisms for and interrelationships between secondary impacts.
An explanation of this flow chart is provided in Appendix I.J.
Although this user manual emphasizes the analysis of the secondary impacts
of a project—from the initial receipt of the application to the preparation of
an EIS~this should not be construed as an implicit statement that these impacts
are more important than primary impacts. The purpose of the scoping meeting is
to determine which issues and impacts are to be addressed in the EIS—these may
or may not include secondary impacts.
The Council on Environmental Quality has issued "Regulations for Implement-
ing the Procedural Provisions of NEPA."* One provision of these regulations
states the following:
There shall be an early and open process for determining the scope
of issues to be addressed (in an EIS) and for identifying the sig-
nificant issues related to a proposed action. This process shall
be termed scoping.**
* 40 CFR 1500 to 1508 > effective July 30, 1979.
**40 CFR 1501.7
4-1
-------
1.
Nev Source
Direct
BLOCK li INOIRBTT INDUSTRIAL EMPLOTMEHT EFFECTS
iS.
1).
12.
Indirect
14.
TlOUltl .
j
S.
Cioqcnous
Cxo9«nou(
rectors
»
sic*
J*3Ui.t«JMEBtI :
I.
4.
6.
£1] CM
w
teildM
ClXM
' 1
Difac«re
Jtequlr
-«! 'Bopu
»
JVti*l
th
ceecut*;S
«••«*« SJ
Ul
\
-Mm
16.
17.
CIMB9
-
— j.
1
te*r
,'.>•: ta<>lc
;l;SfS*w
» . .
: toy:v:::*:-.:.::K
BLOCK Ci SERVICE
EMPLOYMENT
EFFECTS
Air
a.
•
w*t«r
».
Nci»«
10.
p»«ti-
cidti
11.
1
• »ocl»l. •cononic; and r«iourc»-r»Ut*J li»p«ct «r«»«i Tti«*« »r« generally of
priiury concern to ea»»m>4tt«i *IM| it«t«i,
7. SSCONMRY IMPACTS ASSESSMENT
4-2
-------
If the scoping process does determine that secondary impacts should be considered,
the techniques in this chapter can be used to assess them.
4.2 FORMAT OF CHAPTER 4
The remainder of this chapter discusses in detail the individual techniques
for assessing secondary impacts at a level of detail suitable for an environ-
mental impact statement. The ultimate goal of these techniques is not necessa-
rily the quantification of impacts. For some categories of impacts, either the
state-of-the-art does not allow credible quantification of these impacts, or a
qualitative analysis of the magnitude of and mitigation of these impacts is more
appropriate.
Most of the blocks in Figure 7 are discussed below. In addition, there is
a discussion of other steps required at Level C:
• defining the impact area
• describing the existing environment in the impact area
• doing a baseline projection of the impact area without the project.
The order of exposition followed in this chapter represents a logical pro-
gression of steps corresponding to the order in which the analysis should be
undertaken. A flow chart of the Level C techniques is given in Figure 8.
For each assessment technique discussed below—starting with Section 4.4—
there is generally
• a description of the step or area of analysis
• the data output from the analysis
« the data input to the analysis, and the sources for these data
• suggested techniques for the 'analysis. Several techniques may
be listed, and examples will often illustrate the use of the
technique.
Although techniques are discussed in this manual in a step-by-step procedu-
ral format, we assume that there will be significant initiative taken by you to
supplement or adapt these techniques to local conditions, and to properly inter-
pret the projections. We are confident that the techniques outlined are suffi-
ciently accurate and straightforward, but there is no substitute for imaginative
adaptation of these techniques.
4.3 STEP 1: DEFINE THE IMPACT AREA
The impact area comprises all communities within the normal daily commuting
radius of the site where the facility will be constructed. There is potential
for new residential development in these communities, as new individuals may be
attracted to the commutershed to work at the facility. All other things being
equal, the closer a community is to the facility, the greater the degree of the
4-3
-------
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
Step 9
Define the
Impact Area
Describe the
Existing
Environment
Baseline
Projection"
Estimate
Direct
Employment
Calculate
Non-local
Employment
Calculate
Indirect
Employment
Calculate -
Direct s Indirect
Population Effects
Estimate the
Number of New
Households
Review the
Existing
Housing Market
Step 10
Estimate New
Housing Units
Required
Step 11
Allocate New
Hnits to
Communities
Step 12
Calculate
Residential
Site Requirements
Allocate
Units Within
Communities
Step 13
Estimate New
Residential Infra-
Structure Demands
Step 14
Estimate Service
Sector Site
Requirements
Step 15
Stormwater
Runoff
Impacts
Stea 16
Ste-
Noise
Impacts
17
r™
Pesticide
Impacts
Step 18 Stej
Sensitive
Area
Impacts
19
Step
20
Identify
Known
Colocator
Step 21
Step 22
Calculate
Known Colocator
Site fiequirements
Step
23
Calculate
Known Colocator
Infrastructure
Requirements
_L
Prepare
Environmental
Impact
Statement
Step 24
Figure 8. Flowchart of Level C Activities.
4-4
-------
expected impact. Determine the normal commuting area by talking with:
• the local Chamber of Commerce
• the local economic development agency
• the permit applicant, who may have studied the issue
prior to selecting the site for the facility
• the local division of employment security or department
of labor.
You may also define the commuting area by referring to national data on
distance to work (Table 5) and travel time to work (Table 6). The information
given in these tables, for all workers and by means of transportation, indicates
that two-thirds of all workers travel fewer than ten miles, and fewer than 25
minutes, to get to work. Information on travel to work is also collected for
the sixty SMSAs which comprise the sample for the Annual Housing Survey, and
you should review these data for facilities which are expected to locate within
these SMSAs.
Regardless of the source used to estimate the commuting radius, the result-
ing impact area should be defined to include only those communities that can
reasonably be expected to contribute to the facility's labor pool. Careful
definition of the impact area at the beginning of the analysis can reduce the
data collection burden considerably by reducing the number of jurisdictions
for which data are to be collected.
There may not be a congruence between the impact area as defined above
(i.e., all communities within the facility's commutershed) and the data collec-
tion area (i.e., all jurisdictions for which data are available). Although we
suggest below for certain techniques that data be collected for individual
communities, practically speaking you may have to rely on data for larger
regional groupings, such as counties, Bureau of Economic Analysis Areas (BEAs),
or standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs). The use of these different
groupings requires judgment on your part to adapt the data as required to re-
flect local conditions.
4.4 STEP 2: DESCRIBE THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMPACT AREA
Description
The description of the existing environment and the baseline projection
(next section) together provide both you and the readers of the EIS a summary
overview of economic and demographic conditions in the impact area, and a con-
text for evaluating the effects of the facility. The description of the exist-
ing environment utilizes data at the community level if available; otherwise,
county-level data are incorporated. Concentrate on economic and demographic
conditions in preparing the description of the existing environment.
Data Output/Sources
A) Employment by Major Sector or 2-Digit SIC.
4-5
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TABLE 5.
MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION BY DISTANCE TO WORK
(For the United States: 1975. Workers 14 years old and over)
Means of
Transportation
to Hoik
All workers
Automobile or truck
Drive alone
Car pool
Public transportation
Bus or streetcar
Subway or elevated
Railroad
Taxicab
Bicycle
Motorcycle
Walk only
Other means
Total1
(thousands)
70,8)6
61,657
47,188
14,470
4,587
2,958
1,124
387
118
432
285
3,645
210
Percentage distribution by distance to work (miles)
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
1OO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Less than
1 mile
12.3
8.1
8.7
6.0
2.8
3.1
I. 3
-
18.6
41.4
11.2
91.4
27.1
I to 2
miles
16.0
16.3
16.9
14.4
14.3
18.0
5.6
2.1
45.8
43.1
19.3
8.3
31.4
3 to 4
miles
17.2
17.9
18.8
15.0
21.3
26.1
15.8
0.8
22.0
10.0
17.2
0.2
8.1
5 to 9
miles
21,6
22.9
23.5
20.7
24.1
25.7
28.2
3.9
11.0
4.2
19.3
0.1
19.0
10 to 14
miles
13.5
14,1
13.8
15.0
16.9
15.2
26.0
8.3
3.4
1.6
15.8
-
10.0
15 to 24
miles
12,3
13.1
12.1
16.0
13.5
8.7
18,7
39,8
-
-
12.6
-
3,8
25 miles
or more
7.1
7.6
6.0
12.8
7.0
3.3
4.2
45.7
-
-
4.6
-
-
Mean
8.5
9.0
8.3
11.4
9.1
7.1
10.1
24.3
2.4
1.4
7.5
O.I
3.9
Excludes workers with no fixed place of work and workers who worked at home.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. "The Journey to Work in the United States: 1975".
Population Reports. Special Studies, P-23,199, July 1979.
Current
-------
TABI,E (•.
MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION BY TRAVEL T.TME TO HORK
(For the United States: 1975. Workers 14 years old and over)
Means of
Transportation
to work
All workers
Automobile or truck
Drive alone
Car pool
Pnhlio Transportation
Bus or streetcar
Subway or elevated
Rai Iroad
Taxicab
nicycle
Motor cycle
Walk only
Other means
Total1
(thousands)
70,816
61.657
47,188
14.470
4,587
2,958
1,124
387
118
432
285
3,645
210
Percent.aqe distribution by travel time (minutes)
Total
1OO.O
100.0
100. 0
1OO.O
100. 0
10O.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1OO.O
Less
than 10
minutes
21.5
20.5
22.3
14.5
2.9
2.9
0.7
1.3
28.8
38.4
2B.1
59.3
22.4
10 to 14
minutes
18.2
19.0
19.9
16.2
5.6
6.5
1.1
1.0
41.5
23.4
18.9
19.9
11.4
15 to 25
minutes
30.5
32.3
32.8
30.5
17.9
23.3
8.6
3.1
21.2
28.5
3O.2
15.3
29.0
25 to 29
minutes
4.6
4.9
4.8
5.3
3.5
4.6
1.6
0.8
2.5
2.1
3.9
0.7
2.4
3O to 34
minutes
11.6
11.6
10.7
14.6
19.1
21.1
19.9
5.9
3.4
4.4
12.3
2.7
4.8
35 to 49
minutes
8.4
7.8
6.6
11.6
22.9
21.5
30.7
18.1
-
2.8
5.6
1.7
7.1
50
mi nut
or mo
5.
3.
2.
7.
28.
20.
37.
69.
2.
0.
1.
0.
22.
Excludes workers with no fixed place of work nnd workers who worked at home.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Rureau of the Census. "The Journey to
Population Reports, Special Studies, P-23,»99, July 1979.
Mean
19.9
19.1
17.8
23.2
39.5
35.4
45.0
62.4
13.2
12.1
16.0
8.7
29.5
Work in the United Statesi 1975," Current
-------
Major sectors are agriculture, manufacturing, mining, construction,
transportation, wholesale.trade, retail trade, finance/insurance/
real estate, services, and government (see Table 2, Chapter 3).
These categories represent Standard Industrial Classification
Divisions, and are commonly used for analyzing economic activity.
Source I: State departments of employment security or labor
collect monthly data on "insured employment" (i.e., insured
through the state's employment insurance system). The data
are collected by establishment and published by two-, three-,
or four-digit SIC for counties, and occasionally for localities.
Source II: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes these
data on an annual basis, for each state and 246 major labor
areas within states, most of which are SMSAs. Depending on
the importance of the economic sector in the impact area,
employment is shown at the SIC Division, 2-digit, or 3-digit
level. Historical data are included. There is approximately
a two-year publication lag. Data are available in machine-
readable form. The data are published in Employment and
Earnings; States and Areas.
Source III: A companion source to Source II, also issued by
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and available only
in machine-readable form, is referred to by BLS as "Total Wage
Data." The tape provides total employment by two-digit SIC
on an annual basis, with a two-year lag for availability.
Extracts for individual counties are available from BLS.
Source IV: Business directories published by states,
localities, and private organizations show annual
employment data by firm or establishment. These data
,do not, however, include all firms in the area. This
source is not recommended.
B) • Total labor force
• Percent of labor force unemployed
• Total employment or number of employees
• Total unemployment
(Note: These data are generally not available by industry, except where
otherwise mentioned in this chapter.)
Source I: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics collects these
data for counties on an annual basis, with a two-year lag.
Extracts from the data, issued on tape as "Current Population
Survey Labor Force Estimates," are available.
Source II: Monthly estimates of total labor force, unemployment,
and employment for States, counties and selected areas are avail-
able on microfiche from BLS. The series is titled State and County Employ-
ment and Unemployment, and the lag is less than a year. —
4-8
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Source III: State departments of labor or divisions of employment
security generally issue monthly estimates of unemployment and
employment for counties and SMSAs. These data are prepared by
those agencies under BLS guidelines and procedures.
Source IV: The U.S. Bureau of the Census1 County Business
Patterns, contains estimates of the number of employees by
county, excluding government employees, railroad employees,
self-employed persons, and a few other categories. These
estimates are annual, with a two- to three-year lag.
Source V: Revised 1977 PEERS Projections were issued in 1980
by the U.S. Water Resources Council. These projections will
include historical data on total employment,* for Bureau of
Economic Analysis Areas (BEAs), SMSAs, non-SMoA portions of
BEAs, and water resource areas and subareas.
C) Wages or Earnings by Sector.
Source I: BLS "Total Wage" Data contains average weekly
wages by 2-digit SIC for counties.
Source II: Employment and Earnings: States and Areas (BLS),
contains average weekly earnings and average hourly earnings
at the SIC Division, 2-digit and 3-digit level of sectoral
disaggregation. For many industries, however, earnings data
are not shown.
Source III: The 1977 PEERS Projections, U.S. Water Resources
Council, contain historical data on total earnings by sixty
industry categories for BEAs, SMSAs, non-SMSA portions of BEAs,
and water resource regions and sub-areas.
(D) Income.
This may be expressed in several forms, such as family, personal, house-
hold, or per capita income.
Source I: Estimates of total personal and per capita personal
income by county are published every April in the Survey of
Current Business, which is issued by the U.S. Department of
Commerce. There is a two-year lag.
Source II: The "Survey of Buying Power," published every
August by Sales S Marketing Magazine, contains estimates
of average, median household, and per capita "effective
buying income." There is a one-year lag.
Source III: The 1977 PEERS Projections include historical
data on total personal income, per capita income, and per
''i.e., not differentiated by economic sector.
4-9
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capita income relative to the U.S., for BEAs, SMSAs, non-
SMSA portions of BEAs, and water resource regions and sub-
areas.
(E) Payroll,
Source: Total first quarter and total annual payroll by
county is published annually in County Business Patterns.
There is a two-year lag. Payroll is not disaggregated by
economic sector.
(F) Other Earnings Data
Source I: The 1977 PEERS Projections contain data on earnings
per worker and earnings per worker relative to the U.S. for
BEAs, SMSAs, non-SMSA portions of BEAs, and water resource
regions and subareas.
Source II; State departments of revenue, taxation, finance,
or labor may provide total earnings and earnings per worker
for counties.
(G) Population.
Source I: Estimates of the population of counties and
metropolitan ar"eas within states are available on an
annual basis from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports, "Federal-State Cooperative Program
for Population Estimates." Each state is published.
separately, and there is a one-year lag. Data for selected
previous years are shown for comparison.
Source II: The Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide,
published annually by Rand McNally and Company, provides
estimated population for counties and communities. The
atlas for a given year contains estimates as of January
1st of that year.
Source III: The "Survey of Buying Power," published by
Sales and Marketing Magazine, gives annual estimates of
population for counties, with a one-year lag.
Source IV: Local jurisdictions and states conduct interim
censuses through departments of vital statistics, planning,
or economic development. These estimates may also be avail-
able from regional planning agencies.
(H) New Housing Units.
Source: The U.S. Bureau of the Census issues, on a monthly
basis with a two- to three-month lag, "Housing Units Author-
ized by Building Permits and Public Contracts," The data
are published by state, SMSA, county, and permit-issuing
jurisdiction (generally a community). Construction in areas
that do not require permits is not covered. At the community
and county level, only privately-owned housing units are covered.
4-10
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(I) Business Establishments,
Source: County Business Patterns, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
publishes data on the total number of establishments, by nine
employee-size classes, for counties. There is a two-year
publication lag.
A good general guide to sources of Federal and State statistical data on
population, employment, and income is issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Industry and Trade Administration. The book, Measuring Markets; A Guide to
the Use of Federal and State Statistical Data, lists, for each program super-
vised by the State, the
• title of the publication
« geographic and demographic coverage
• frequency of data
• issuing agency, and mailing address
Because state sources are likely to be an excellent source of community and county
data, consult this guide to identify these sources. An alternative source is
Environmental/Socioeconomic Data Sources/ issued October 1976 by the U.S. Depart-
ment of the Air Force and the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Techniques/Comment
The description of the existing environment should not be exhaustive, but
may include elements of the following, according to your judgment as to the
relevant issues to emphasize:
• a brief history of the area
• a discussion of the composition of economic activity in the
area, with emphasis on the most important economic sectors
• income, wages, and employment data
• population trends, including migration into and out of
the area
• a description of major interindustry relationships
• historical housing activity, including a discussion of the
geographic distribution of this activity
• special issues, such high unemployment, dependence on one
company, or recent high inmigration of population.
Emphasize major trends. Incorporate community-level data, if available.
Remember that some aspects of the existing environment — such as infrastructure
4-11
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and services—are covered in later steps of this chapter, and greater detail is
also provided in later steps for housing, employment, population, and other is-
sues. As you reach each of these steps, a more detailed description of the
existing environment may be appropriate, and can provide a useful context for
evaluating the probable impact of the facility.
4.5 STEP 3: DO A BASELINE PROJECTION OF THE IMPACT AREA WITHOUT THE PROJECT
Description
The baseline projection comprises a forecast of some of the major economic
and demographic characteristics covered in the description of the existing envi-
ronment. This projection assumes the absence of the facility. Subsequent steps
of Level C (Steps 4 to 23) measure the incremental effects of the project; i.e.,
the effects of the project not accounted for by this Step 3 baseline projection
without the project.
You may add these incremental effects to the baseline projection without
the project in order to produce a baseline projection with the project. How-
ever, we have not included a discrete step for that purpose. The conceptual
focus of the assessment techniques in this chapter and the principal concern of
the EIS is the incremental effects of the project; i.e., the difference between
the future conditions without the project (the baseline projection) and the fu-
ture conditions with the project.
The projection period is the near-term future of ten years. This is con-
sistent with the time frame recommended in the Environmental Impact Assessment
Guidelines for Selected New Source Industries.* ine accuracy of any projections
"it the subnational level beyond a ten-year period is highly questionable. Ten
years also represents the time period over which the effects of the facility
will be analyzed.
Data Output
Essential categories:
• population
• per capita income
• total employment
• total personal income
• earnings or employment by sector.
Other categories:
• total labor force
• new housing starts.
*U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., October, 1975.
4-12
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Source
I: The first five items are available from an economic projection
effort entitled OBERS, previously cited. In 1972, the Water
Resources Council published projections of economic activity
for the nation and for a number of regional groupings:
• states
• SMSAs
• Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) areas
• water resources regions and subareas
• non-SMSA portions of the BEA areas
• non-SMSA portions of water resources subareas.
Included were projections of population, personal income,
employment, and earnings of persons by industry, for 1980,
1985, 1990, 2000, and 2020.* Revised OBERS projections were
issued in 1974 and again in 1980. The 1980 version revises
the regional classifications and expands the number of sec-
tors to approximately 60 (see Appendix I.P.).
II: Local, county, and regional planning organizations prepare projections
of population change, total employment or employment by industry,
housing activity, and other economic and demographic components. As
an example, these projections may be included in a 208 Plan or State
Implementation Plan covering all or part of the impact area.
Ill: Local economic development agencies or chambers of commerce may
project economic activity for their "service" area, or be aware
of relevant projections.
IV: State agencies — such as departments of commerce, public service
commissions, or economic development commissions-project gross
economic and demographic activity by county.
V: Departments of economics or political science at local universities
issue special or continuing studies of economic or demographic
activity at the. state or county level.
*There were 37 OBERS economic sectors in 1972,
4-13
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Note to EPA regional office users of this manual
The cost-effectiveness guidelines for the wastewater treatment facility
construction grants program includes procedures for establishing state and sub-
state population forecasts. Consistent forecasts must, according to Agency
policy, be used for both air and water quality planning. In practice, the popu-
lation forecasts approved by the Regional Administrators have been the OBERS
(Source I) projections. However, it is possible that another set of population
forecasts has been approved in your region; in accordance with cost-effective-
ness guidelines, you should use the forecasts approved by the Regional Adminis-
trator to assess secondary impacts.
Technique
You should rely most heavily on the OBERS projection for the region most
closely approximating the impact area. You should also pay particular attention
to any 208 or SIP plans for the impact area, as they provide projections based
on local input. The advantage of local or regional plan documents is that they
are more likely to incorporate projections at the county or community level.
Review the assumptions underlying the projections. 'For example, a projected
rate of unemployment of 2.5% over the ten-year period may seriously flaw an other-
wise apparently useful study, if you know, from the description of the existing
environment, that current unemployment in the area is 11% and shows no signs of
abating. Similarly, review the methodological basis for the projection. A
simple extrapolation of historical data is less desirable than an analysis which
probes fundamental shifts in the economic base of the community, changes in
migration patterns, or similar determinants of future activity.
Prepare a summary baseline projection from the available studies. Cover
at least the seven categories listed previously as outputs from this step. Range
estimates are acceptable if several well-founded projections are available. Pre-
pare the projection for ten years hence.-
4.6 STEP 4: ESTIMATE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT
Description
This step estimates the direct employment (E*) requirements of the project —
broken down into construction and operating workforce — for the first ten years
of the project, beginning with the first year of construction.
Data Output
See description above and Table 1, Chapter 3, Section 3.4.
Data Source
A) the permit applicant
B) if the applicant refuses, contact the appropriate local economic
development agency or chamber of commerce. These parties are
sufficiently familiar with the facility to accurately estimate
direct employment.
4-14
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Technique
Follow Step 2 of Level B—See Section 3.4 of Chapter 3.
4.7 STEP 5: CALCULATE NON-LOCAL EMPLOYMENT
Description
From the previous step you know that the new source is estimated to create
E* employees each year. The local labor force may supply some of this employ-
ment (E]_oca]_) . Estimate the local component, and then calculate the net direct
employment increment that must be met by new workers moving into the impact
area. Estimate this local component for two years within the ten-year projec-
tion period«
1) the year during the construction phase of maximum employment.
This maximum employment period may include some operations
workers;
2) the year during the operations phase representing the stable
operating workforce. Typically, this will be a year after
construction is completed.
As discussed in Chapter 3, Section 3.5, Step 3, there is the possibility
that the year of maximum total direct employment may be a year other than those
in which either maximum construction or stable operating employment occurs. In
such a case, calculate the local component also
3) for the year of maximum total direct employment (Efc). This
year will include both construction and operations workers.
Do the analysis, in Steps 6, 7. 8, and 10 for the year of peak construction
employment, stable operating' employment, and (if different) peak total_ employment.
Data Output
A) the portion of the direct employment requirement (E*)
supplied from the local labor force
-------
Technique
Follow Step 3 of Level B - see Section 3.5,
4.8 STEP 6: CALCULATE INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT
Description
Indirect employment represents employment in other economic sectors attribu-
table to the facility but not directly associated with it. It includes employ-
ment in firms which supply inputs or receive outputs from the facility, and
which locate in proximity to the facility (i.e./ in the impact area), as well as
employment in commercial or service sector activity necessary to sustain the popu-
lation increase arising from both the employment at the facility and at supplier/
buyer firms.
Data Output
A) the total direct and indirect employment (ET) attributable to the
facility, for the two (or three) years of analysis within the ten-year
period. *
Data Input/Source
A) the net direct employment (E) attributable to the facility.
*
Source: Step 5
B) employment by major economic sector, except agriculture, in the
current year.
Source: See Step 2, "Describe the Existing Environment" — there
are several sources. See also Figure 5, Chapter 3a
C) employment by major economic sector for that year which is ten
years after construction of the facility has begun.
Source: U.S. Water Resources Council, 1977 PEERS Pro jections
D) Population in the current year.
Source: U.S. Bureau of.the Census, Current Population Reports,
Series P-26.
E) Population for that year which is ten years after construction
of the facility has begun.
Source: U.S. Water Resources Council, op. cit.
F) Employment in agriculture for the current year.
*i.e., the years of 1) maximum construction employment, 2) operations employment,
and 3) maximum total direct employment.
4-16
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• Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, the most recent Census of
Agriculture. Data may have to be interpolated, if the Census is not
current.
G) Employment in agriculture for that year which is ten years
after construction of the facility has begun.
Source: Extrapolate U.S. Census of Agriculture data.
Technique
The technique for calculating the indirect employment multiplier for the
current year is discussed in Section 3,6, and an example is given in Figure 5,
Chapter 3. Because the data are more geographically disaggregated at Level C, a.
more accurate multiplier is calculated at Level C than at Level B.
Calculating a multiplier for the year ten years after beginning of construc-
tion allows you to discern any significant projected shifts in economic activity.
If there is a substantial change in this multiplier, the current and future
year multiplier, applied to the estimates of net direct employment effectively
define the range of indirect employment impact.
4,9 STEP 7: CALCULATE DIRECT AND INDIRECT POPULATION EFFECTS
Description
This represents the population attributable to both direct and indirect
employment. This population includes the workers, and the workers' families.
Data Output
A) total maximum direct and indirect population attributable to the
facility for the two (or'three) years of analysis within the ten-year period.*
Data Input/Source
A) total direct and indirect employment (E-j) attributable to the facility in
the two (or three) years.
Source: Step 6
Technique
The technique for calculating total maximum direct and indirect population
(pT) is discussed in Section 3.7, and is illustrated in Figure 5, Chapter 30
4.10 STEP 8: ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS
Description
An estimate of the number of households implied by the total maximum direct
and indirect population is necessary in order to calculate the number of housing
units necessary to accomodate this population.
*i.e., the years of 1) maximum construction employment, 2) stable operations
employment, and 3) maximum total direct employment.
4-17
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Data Output
A) Number of households for the two (or three) years of analysis within
the ten-year period.*
Data Input/Source
A) Average household size
Source I: US Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States. 1978.
Source II: YOU may calculate an average household size for the
State containing the impact area by obtaining number of households
and population from a state department of commerce or analogous
agency. Divide population by number of households.
B) Total direct and indirect population (PT) attributable to the facility.
Source: Step 7.
Technique
The technique is discussed in Section 3.8, Level B. Either use a default
value of 2.85 to 2.95, or use one of the two sources for average household size
listed abqve.
4.11 STEP 9: REVIEW THE EXISTING HOUSING MARKET
Description
There may be an adequate amount of housing in the impact area to satisfy
the needs of the incoming population. The purpose of this step is to estimate
the composition of current housing and the number of vacant units.
Data Output:
A) Number of vacant housing units available in the current year.
Data Input/Source
A) Composition of housing by single-family, multi-family, and mobile
home.
Source; U.S. Bureau of the Census, General Housing Characteristics
gives housing by community. This census is published every ten years.
The latest housing census was in 1980. There is a three-year publication
lag.
^••fi.f the years of 1) maximum construction employment, 2) stable operations employ-
ment, and 3) maximum total direct employment.
4-18
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B) Number of vacant year-round units at the last census,
Source: U,S. Bureau of the Census, op.cit.
C) Current vacancy rate, rental and for sale units.
Source: Realtors identified through the National Roster of Realtors.
D) Current composition of housing stock. This can be used to
update the Census information. Not all communities, however,
keep good records on housing stock.
Source: Local assessor or building inspector. Either of these two
sources can provide information on both building permits and demoli-
tions. These data can be used to adjust the Census data for number
of housing units. Local utilities are also a possible source of
updated building stock data.
E) Future composition and/or quantity of housing.
Source: The baseline projection for the impact area.
There are several other possible sources for all five of the categories listed
above:
• particularly for a large project with substantial employment,
the site selection study may contain a detailed analysis of
the current and future housing market, with an estimate of
vacant available units.
• 208 and SIP plans
• local or regional planning agencies.
Techniques
The technique for estimating the availability of vacant units is discussed
in Step 7, Level B, Section 3.9. You should work with community-level data,
although county-level data are an acceptable substitute.
4.12 STEP 10: ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF NEW HOUSING UNITS REQUIRED
Description
Using the data from the previous two steps, this step estimates the short-
fall of housing in the impact area and, therefore, the number of new housing
units that must be constructed. The available current vacancies are compared
with the number of households requiring housing for both the year of stable
4-19
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operations, the year of maximum employment during the construction phase, and (if
different), the year of maximum total direct employment. This comparison is par-
ticularly important if the facility has a large construction workforce, and a
short peak employment period.
Data Output
A) Total number of new housing units required to meet the requirements
of the direct and indirect population attributable to the new source.
Data Input
A) Number of households represented by the direct and indirect population.
Source: Step 8.
B) Number of vacant units, current year.
Source: Step 9.
Technique
The technique is discussed in Step 8, Level B, Section 3.10. Some comments
about the procedure:
!)• You are interested primarily in identifying the incremental effects
of the facility on the local housing market. It is desirable to
work with the current-year estimate of housing availability, rather
than an estimate or projection of availability in future years.
This allows you to estimate the expansion of the current housing
stock that will be necessary to handle the new households. If
the comparison of new households to the number of current vacant
units indicates a housing deficiency, it does not matter that
there may be plans to construct new housing; rather, the salient
fact is that the housing does not currently exist and its construc-
tion cannot be assumed. A shortage of available housing is an
indication of potential pressures on infrastructure and the service
sector, as well as potential physical impacts.
2) However, you should review the baseline or other projections of
housing growth and economic activity in the impact area, to identify
recent growth patterns in the housing sector, and probable expansion
of this sector in future years. A projected expansion of the
housing base greater than or equal to the number of units required
by the incoming population should be considered in evaluating the
effects of the facility. In particular, you should consider the
timing of this expansion relative to the timing of the employment
and population influx attributable to the facility. We emphasize
again that these new units cannot be taken as a given, i.e, there
is no guarantee that they will ever be constructed.
Similarly, if your review of the baseline projection indicates that the
area has been experiencing a long-term decline in population and economic
activity, the number of vacant units available may increase in future years,
4-20
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as individuals leave the area. This trend may alleviate any
potential housing shortage due to the facility. You must recog-
nize that this trend may not continue, and that a major reason
for the reversal of this trend may be the siting of the facility
in the area, especially if it is a large employer.
3) The technique discussed in Section 3.10 assumes that existing
housing is filled before any new housing 'is constructed. Our
review of the literature has found no support for the notion of
'structural vacancy", i.e., representing substandard housing that
will not be filled even in cases of future housing shortages.
You should assume that, in periods of strong demand for housing,
all available units will be taken.
It is possible, however, that this assumption overstates the true
number of available units in the current market and understates
the number of new units that will be required. In particular,
if the population influx associated with a project is low enough
and slow enough, the existing vacancy rate may be maintained
throughout the life of the project, as new housing units are
completed. Therefore, the vacancy rate will never reach zero.
The level of vacancy maintained during the life of the project
depends upon:
• the relative size of the construction workforce and operating
workforce, e.g., a large construction workforce for a short
period may put pressure on the housing market and effectively
reduce the vacancy rate to zero.
• a town experiencing high growth may be completing many new
housing units every year, whereas a relatively rural town
with large recent outmigration may have completed virtually
no units recently.
Therefore, consider the length of the construction period, the
relative sizes of construction and operating staff, and the econony
of the town in determining the effect on the existing vacancy rate.
If you feel that the employment increase will be gradual, do not
use a zero vacancy rate in calculating the number of new units
required, but rather use a higher vacancy rate assumption. (See Figure
9) a This will effectively increase the number of units required, or
reduce the surplus of housing units. The higher vacancy rate should
approximate the historical figure for the impact area.
4.13 STEP 11: ALLOCATE NEW HOUSING UNITS AMONG COMMUNITIES
If there is insufficient existing housing to accommodate the incoming direct
and indirect population, new housing will be constructed. The spatial alloca-
tion of thse units assumes that construction of these units will take place first
lr* the host and contiguous communities, and then in communities more distant in
fche commutershed.
4-21
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EXAMPLE OF DIFFERENT VACANCY RATE ASSUMPTIONS
(Step 10)
Example; Arlington, New York, an unincorporated community of 11,200 people,
currently has 3,583 year-round housing units, of which 140, or 3.9% are vacant.
The nearby town of Wappingers Falls, with a population of 5,607, has 1,994 year-
round housing units, of which 154 are vacant, or 7.7%.
Case 1
A large surface coal-mining operation is locating just outside of Arlington,
and will result in about 250 new households moving into this area almost immedi-
ately. These households represent the stable operating workforce. Assume that
Arlington and Wappingers Falls are isolated, and are therefore the only communi-
ties where these households can locate.
If we assume that a zero vacancy rate is a possibility, the 294 vacant units
in these two communities will be sufficient to accommodate the 250 new households
moving into the area.
Case 2
Assume, on the other hand, that the same coal mining operation will locate
in the area. However, in this case, there will be several years of site work,
involving a small workforce, followed by a gradual increase in the workforce
until a stable level is reached after ten years-. Again, this stable workforce
will result in 250 new households in the area.
Because the two communities will have a long period to prepare for this
influx, it is expected that new housing units will be constructed for most of
the households, and that the~demand for housing will not result in a zero
vacancy rate. The vacancy rate will probably not decline below 3.5% in either
community, which is the long-term historical rate for these communities, although
current rates are higher.
If the new households take over some of the existing vacancies, and the
vacancy rate declines to 3.5%, 15 existing units will be occupied in Arlington
an<* 85 units in Wappingers Falls-, for a total of 110, Therefore, 140 new units
(250-Ho) will be required in the two communities over the ten-year period to
accommodate the 250 new households-.
FIGURE 9
4-22
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Data Output
A) Number of new housing units, by type, by community or county in the
impact area.
Data Input
A) Number of total new housing units required by the direct and indirect
incoming population.
Source: Step 10.
B) Land use map for the communities in the impact area.
Source I; local planning board.
II: regional planning agency/ areawide water quality
management agency.
Ill: State department of community affairs
IV: U.S. Geological Survey, quadrangle maps
V: There are areas where no land use maps are available. You
may develop them, albeit at some expense.- by
• having the impact area flown over, and then interpreting
the aerial photographs. We recommend that you rely upon
a reputable aerial photography service listed in
Photogrammetric Engineering
• you may obtain recent aerials at minimal cost from the
National Cartographic Information Center, U,S Geological
• Survey, Reston, Virginia, The Center stocks maps
developed by Federal agencies.
land use map should identify the following uses;
• Residential
—single-family
—multi-family
—mobile homes
• Commercial/Service/Retail
• Manufacturing/Warehouse
• Public Land
—parks and recreation
—community facilities
—schools
—conservation land
4-23
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• semi-public uses
—churches
—hospitals
—golf courses
—highways/streets
—agriculture.
wil? iikSly t0 °btain 3 current'^ar land use map; therefore, some up-
will be required. Sources are:
• building permit data to determine type and location of recent
development, which should then be mapped.
• utility data should cover new connections to residential and
non-residential users.
• real estate agents have an incomplete, but useful, knowledge of
new development.
• tax assessor maps frequently indicate land uses and can be
compared to the land use map you have already obtained.
The new development should be plotted on an overlay and then compared to
the land use map. This aids in identifying the recent pattern of develop-
ment.
C) Persons per acre in developed areas.
Source: building inspector or tax assessor. At a minimum, obtain the
density for recent residential development, i.e., in the last five years.
You may compare this to the density of older units, but this is not
essential, if these sources are not able to assist you, use the default
values in Table 7.
D) Location of recent new residential development in relation to existing
development.
Source: discussed previously under land use maps above.
E) Density of development (persons or units per acre) for the previous
five years.
Source: building inspector, electric utility.
F) Location and amount of remaining developable land.
Source: land use maps.
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TABLE 7
SUGGESTED HOUSING DENSITIES
(2)
Dwelling Type Persons Per Acre
Single-family detached 15
Single-family semi-detached 21
Single-family attached 31
Two-family detached 21
Two-family semi-detached 31
Multifamily dwellings 33-76
Mobile home or trailer 21
Default values for Step 11 ,
Assuming average family size of 2.9 persons.
Source: (l) Koppelman and DeChiara, Urban Planning and Design Criteria, and
(2) Hamilton, Robert Todd, Alternative Housing Designs that Facilitate Human
Activity at Four Density Situations-, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
unpublished thesis.
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Technique
Initially, assume that any new housing will locate in the host community
a"d any contiguous communities, considered as a single housing market. This
step allocates units among communities, not within communities (Step 12). This
allocation relies heavily upon consultation with realtors, assessors, and
inspectors, as well as your review of the land use map, and an analysis of the
pattern and extent of recent development. Lack of developable land in a
community automatically precludes the development of new housing in a community-
this lack of developable land also places any sensitive areas in the community
at risk. (See Step 20).
Ask local officials (planning board, department of community affairs, real-
tors, assessor or inspector) to estimate where the new housing units will be
built. Compare their responses with the patterns of recent development identi-
fied from the land use map. Local officials may suggest a community that has
not seen recent development, but which contains available land. In this case
the official is essentially forecasting a shift in recent development patterns.
Once you have allocated units (or persons) to specific communities, you
should do a quick test to determine whether sufficient developable land is
available for these units.
First, assume that all units will be single-family and calculate the
acreage required.
Second, assume that all units will be multifamily high-rise, and calculate
the acreage required.
We strongly encourage the use of local estimates of housing density (persons
per acre). However, the default values we supplied in Table 7 can be used.
The estimates of acreage derived by assuming single-family construction, and then
multi-family high-rise, effectively defines the range of possible land consump-
tion :
• if the amount of available developable land approximates or
exceeds that required assuming all single-family construction,
then the available land is sufficient.
• if, however, the amount of developable land approximates that
required assuming all multifamily housing, then the available
developable land is probably inadequate to accommodate all of
the allocated housing units, unless there is good reason to
believe that only multi-family housing will be built. Some
units must therefore be allocated to other communities.
Iri boomtown situations, it is assumed that the use of mobile homes will be far
higher than the existing typology would indicate. Therefore, in applying the
test of available developable land within a community, use the density for
mobile homes (Table 7) „
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The definition of a boomtown in this manual is:
an isolated, small community with an inadequate pool of construc-
tion workers and inadequate facilities to accommodate this labor
force. Hundreds or thousands of workers must be brought in from
elsewhere during the construction period, leading to severe short-
ages of housing, retail and professional services, and public
facilities. A boomtown is a small community (usually less than
10,000 to 15,000 people before any population influx associated
with the project begins) that is the central business area lo-
cated in a county remote from any large population center. Occa-
sionally, a boomtown is a company-sponsored new town. Development
of significant permanent housing is unlikely to occur during the
boom phase. Projects leading to boomtown effects have a construc-
tion workforce many times larger than the operating workforce.
If the host and contiguous community have insufficient available developable
land for all of the new housing units that will be required, housing units
should be allocated to successively distant communities in the commutershed.
If you or the local officials believe that there is a limit to the number of
new housing units that will be constructed in a community—other than the con-
straint imposed by the availability of developable land—then you may override
the requirement that all of the developable land in the host and contiguous
towns must be consumed before construction may occur elsewhere. In other words,
you may allocate new units to communities more distant in the commutershed, even
though not all developable land in the host or contiguous communities has been
consumed.
An example of the application of Step 11 is given in Figure 10.
4.14 STEP 12: ' CALCULATE'RESIDENTIAL SITE REQUIREMENTS FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS
Description
After units are allocated to communities, calculate the total acreage
required by these units, taking into account the typology of these units, i.e.
single-family, multi-family, mobile home.
A) Type of new housing units by community: single-family, multi-
family, mobile home.
B) Amount of land (in acres) consumed by each type of housing and
total for all housing by community.
Data Input/Source
A) Number of new housing units allocated to specific communities.
Source: Step 11,
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B) Average housing density for each type of housing in the impact area.
Try to obtain density by community, especially for recent development.
You may use the default values given in Table 7.
Source; tax assessor, building inspector, or default values
C) Existing typology of housing units by community,
Source: Step 9.
Technique
Assume that the typology of new units constructed will conform to the
typology of recently-constructed existing housing. Apportion the new housing
to each of these types. Apply the average housing densities to the number of
units in each category to estimate new acreage required for residential growth.
As discussed in Step 11, in boomtown situations you should assume that a
large number of mobile homes or temporary structures will be used, and that
the existing housing typology is not a good guide to the type of housing that
will be constructed. Ask local economic development officials, local planners,
and the company to estimate the number or percentage of mobile homes that will
be used.
You should also consult with the applicant to determine if he or she feels
that the typology of recently-construeted existing housing is appropriate for the
construction and operations workers of the project. If the applicant recommends
an alternative typology and provides adequate justification for it, use this typology
(with the average housing densities from Table 7) to carry out this step. An example
of the application of Step 12 is given in Figure 10.
4.15 STEP 13: ALLOCATE NEW HOUSING UNITS WITHIN COMMUNITIES
Description
This step is particularly important for the analysis of effects on sensitive
areas (Step 20) and noise and pesticides impacts (Steps 18 and 19). Local consul-
tation is highly desirable to carry out this step; however, you can rely upon the
information developed in Step 11 to complete this allocation. Recall that in Step
11 you gathered and/or produced updated land use maps which show the location of
recent residential development in the impact area. This information can be used
for this step to allocate units within communities.
Data Output
A) Probable location of new housing units within each community in
the impact area.
Data Input/Source
A) Number and type of new housing units, by community.
Source: Step 12.
B) Location of recent new residential and other development.
Source: Step 11.
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(Please note that much of the information given in this example is hypothetical.)
A surface coal mine will be opened near Arlington, New York. The population
influx attributable to the project will be gradual — ten years after the initia-
tion of the project, 250 new households will have moved into the area. Given the
gradual nature of this influx, the Step 10 analysis indicates that 140 new housing
units will be constructed to accommodate these households. The new units will be
located either in Arlington or Wappingers Falls.
The local planning board and several realtors have indicated that virtually
all of the new units will probably be constructed in Arlington, rather than
Wappingers Falls. Arlington is the larger business center and community of the
two, and has experienced more recent development, although neither community has
had much growth in recent years.
The most recent land use map for the two communities was done several years
ago. However, the assessor's office was able to pinpoint the location of some
recent residential and commercial development, virtually all of which was in
Arlington.
Of the 140 new units , then, we assume initially that 120 will be located in
Arlington, and 20 in Wappingr.rs Falls. Assuming first that all of these units
will be single- family detached structures, site requirements are:
Arlington 23 acres
Wappingers Falls 4 acres.
Assuming next that all units will be in small multifamily structures, site
requirements are:
Arlington 11 acres
Wappingers Falls 2 acres.
These estimates are based upon an average household size of 2.9, and the default
housing densities in Table 5. In particular, we assumed a density of 15 persons
Per acre for single-family housing, and 33 persons per acre for multi-family
No local estimates of housing density were available.
Arlington and Wappingers Falls both have several thousand acres of develop-
land available within their boundaries, so there is sufficient room for the
new development.
The current typology of housing in the two communities is:
Figure 10. &le of the Application of Step 11, "Allocate New
Housing Units Within Comunities ," and Step 12, .
"Calculate Residential Site Requirements"
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Figure 10. continued
Arlington Wappingers Falls
one-unit structures 1,729 (48.2%) 765 (38.3%)
two or more unit structures 1,756 (49.0%) 1,223 (61.3%)
mobile home or trailer 98 (2.7%) 6 (0.4%)
Recent development has shown a slight trend to more one-unit structures, but the
current typology is probably representative of the new housing that will be
built to accommodate the new households. The expected development does not
qualify as a boomtown, so mobile homes will continue to be an uncommon form of
housing in the area.
Table J-l shows the predicted types of new housing that will be built in the
two communities, and the estimated site requirements of this housing. For one-unit
structures, we used a density of 15 persons per acre, and for two or more unit
structures we used a density of 31 persons per acre.
Recent development in the town of Arlington has been moving linearly along
major state highways toward a significant state park containing a wetland.
Although there are few residences near the park, it is possible that many of
the new units will be constructed near this area. Local realtors and the
assessor indicate that much of the development will occur near the park, and
this is verified by the pattern of recent development. The sensitive area
analysis in Step 20 should consider the potential effects of the new housing
on the park and wetland.
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Table 8
(1)
TYPE OF NEW UNITS AND SITE REQUIREMENTS
Arlington Number of Units Acres Required
58 11
One- unit 30
Two or more units 59
T 0.5
Mobile home J
Total
12° 17''5
Wappingers Falls
One-unit 8 1<5
Two or more units 12
Mobile home °
Total 20 ' 2.5
{1)This table is part of the Figure 10 example application of
Steps 11 and 12.
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C) Updated land use map—this land use map will include an overlay
showing the data in B) above. The overlays to the land use map
should also include and highlight
1) areas unlikely to experience future development, such as
• fully-developed areas
• privately-owned forests or other resource areas
• publicly-owned lands
2) features that inhibit development, such as
• steep slopes
• soil conditions unsuitable for construction
• land adjoining sites such as airports, industrial
areas, disposal sites, mines, or quarries
3) areas with legal or institutional protection such as those
listed under Step 20 of this chapter. These are areas which
should be protected or enhanced.
Source: Step 11, and the sources listed under Step 20,
Technique
Consult with local planners, realtors, the building inspector, the tax assessor,
and other city officials. Indicate to these parties that you expect 'X1 number of
housing units will be developed in the community, requiring 'Y' number of acres.
Ask them to predict, on the land use map, the probable specific location of these
units.
Given that these predictions of the location of new housing involve uncer-
tainty, you should attempt to reduce the burden on local officials of predicting
specific spatial location patterns. Use an overlay or coloring system that re-
flects the likelihood of development. You should use at least three colors or
identifiers to show areas which these officials feel
• are very likely to be developed
• have moderate likelihood of being developed
• are not likely to be developed.
Compare these predictions with your information concerning recent development pat-
terns, and the location of available developable land, and modify their estimates,
if appropriate. Transfer the information on the probable location of housing units
to a single overlay, and include this overlay in the environmental impact statement.
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In consulting with local officials, you may encounter some significant dis-
crepancies in the predicted location of new housing units. If this occurs,
compile a set of overlays which show the different predicted locations. Consult
again with the same local officials, and ask them if they wish to revise their
predictions, based on the estimates supplied by others. This exercise should
lead to changes in some original predictions, and the development of reasonably
congruent estimates.
4.16 STEP 14: ESTIMATE NEW RESIDENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEMAND
Description
The introduction of new population and new housing units into a community
may make significant demands upon:
water supply
health care
highways and local roads
hospitals
wastewater treatment
recreation
libraries
police and fire protection
solid waste disposal capacity.
If existing infrastructure is inadequate, there may also be serious community
fiscal impacts. Therefore, you may carry out an optional fiscal analysis.
Data Output
A) Additional infrastructure and personnel required to service the
incoming population, particularly that element of the population
housed in new units.
B) Analysis of community revenues and expenditures. We recommend
that this analysis be undertaken only for those communities for
which the predicted additional infrastructure requirements are
significant relative to existing infrastructure.
Data Input
A) Incoming population, by community, housed in new residential
units.
Source: Use the Step 11 estimate of new units within communities,
multiplied by average household size.
B) Current level of infrastructure by community. Depending upon the
infrastructure category, the measures of infrastructure capacity
are expressed in terms of personnel, number of facilities, size
of facilities, etc. The indicators for each category are given
in Appendix II, A, Infrastructure Standards.
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Source: local agency responsible for the provision of the service
or infrastructure. Other sources include a department of community
affairs, a local or regional planning agency, or an economic develop-
ment agency.
C) Number of new housing units, by community.
Source: Step 11.
D) Standards or multipliers for public service or infrastructure.
Source: Appendix II.A provides standards based on national averages.
We recommend that you develop a corresponding set of state standards by
consulting the state agency, such as the Board of Health, or Department
of Education, responsible for regulating or overseeing the particular
public service or infrastructure activity. Similarly, local agencies
consulted for B) above may have more stringent standards.
E) Standard facility cost estimates.
Source: F.W. Dodge, Construction Cost Manual or Dodge Digest of
Building Costs and Specifications.
F) Analysis of current revenues and expenditures.
Source: annual audit report to the Board of Commissioners, City Council,
etc.
G) (Optional) Assessed valuation of the facility (projected), current
assessed valuation rates by type of housing unit, and current assessed
valuation per capita.
Source: local tax assessor.
Technique (See Figure 11 for two examples of this technique)„
National-average public service multipliers are given in Appendix II.A.
Apply these multipliers to the estimate of the population in new housing units,
or to the estimate of new units, in order to project the marginal infrastructure
requirements associated with the new>activity. Compare these requirements with
reserve capacity at existing facilities. An effective way to evaluate the avail-
ability of gas, electric power, "and "telephone services is to present the local
utilities with projections of the number and probable location of new units.
Although .there may be plans to expand existing infrastructure, do not
assume that this infrastructure will be available, unless construction is
underway. This assumption provides the most conservative estimate of the
demands that the facility will make on the local community.
For each category of infrastructure for which a deficiency is estimated,
after allowing for currently available reserve, ask local officials if there
are plans to expand this infrastructure. Do not, however, assume that these
facilities .will be constructed; The most responsible position for you to take
in regard to facility expansion is to point out the existence of current
deficiencies, and then discuss any local plans to meet these deficiences. The
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ESTIMATING NEW RESIDENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEMANDS
(Step 14)
The case is the same as Figure 9, a surface coal mining plant locating near
Arlington, New York. Assume that Case 1 applies, i.e., that 250 households will
move into the area almost immediately.
Example 1 - Solid Waste;
Arlington and WappingersFalls share a landfill, which serves a population
of 16,800. The 250 households moving to the area will each generate about 9.2
pounds of solid waste per day, assuming
first adult in household 6.5 pounds
succeeding adults 2.5 pounds
children 1.5 pounds.
The 2,300 pounds per day additional solid waste represents about a 4 percent
increase over the 54,000 pounds currently generated. There is no municipal
collection system — individuals are responsible for hauling their own waste
to the landfill.
The currently projected life of the landfill is 10 years. This projection
assumes no population growth in the area, and in fact, a slight decline is a
possibility. The additional 23,000 pounds of waste over the ten-year period
will reduce the life of the landfill by less than half a year.
Example 2 - Electric Power;
Central Hudson Gas and Electric serves the two communities. Because the
new households will occupy existing vacant units which already have hookups,
there is no need to provide new distribution infrastructure. The recent growth
in electric demand in the utility's service areas has been far below projections;
therefore, the company has sufficient generating capacity to accommodate 250 new
households,
FIGURE 11
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salient fact, however, is that the deficiency currently exists, and that expan-
sion of deficient facilities cannot be assumed.
(Optional Fiscal Analysis)
Estimate future capital expenditures to overcome infrastructure deficiencies
by applying standard facility cost multipliers from F.W. Dodge's Construction
Cost Manual. The use of this manual is discussed in Appendix I.E. Compare the
resulting capital costs to the bonding limit for the relevant government subunit,
taking into account the fact that some governments have special authorities, such
as sewer authorities, for certain public services, and that these authorities
have their own bonding "limit.
Add the additional debt required to finance these facilities to the existing
debt level for the community, and compare the total with existing debt levels.
Compute debt financing or carrying costs. Refer to a standard amortization
table — the information needed to use this table is
• the number of years over which the debt is financed
• the relevant nominal interest rate.
Add these carrying costs as expenditures to the current account.
Estimate the revenues from the facility based on the assessed valuation of
the facility and the appropriate valuation rate for the type of facility. Note
that many facilities are allowed to make payments in lieu of taxes. Consult
the tax assessor.
Apply assessed valuation per type of dwelling unit to the new units to
estimate the revenue from this tax source, Note that assessed valuation per
capita may show an increase or decrease depending on the contribution of the
facility. An increase is likely if estimated revenues from the facility and
the new housing are not adequate to meet expenditures for expansion of infra-
structure.
4.17 STEP 15: ESTIMATE SITE REQUIREMENTS FOR SERVICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
Description
If the facility has direct and indirect employment and population effects
(Steps 6 and 7), there will be service sector development attributable to the
facility, The physical impacts of service sector expansion are generally
minor. Vehicular traffic generated by trips to service sites are subsumed
under Step 16. Service employment is subsumed under indirect employment in Step 6<
Data Output
A) Location of new service sector activity,
B) Estimated number of acres required by this new activity.
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Data Input
A) Current location of service sector activity.
Source; updated land use map, Step 11,
B) Location of new housing, by community.
Source: Step 13.
C) Current population of community.
Source: Step 2.
D) Amount of developable land, by community.
Source: updated land use map, Step 11.
E) Amount of land currently consumed by residential and service sector
uses.
Source: updated land use map, Step 11.
F) Location of recent service sector development.
Source: discussed under Step 11. Consult utility data, building permit
data, and the tax assessor.
G) Site requirements for new housing.
Source: Step 13.
Technique
Calculate a simple ratio of service sector acreage to residential acreage.
Apply this to the estimated site requirements for new housing to derive acreage
for new service sector activity. Compare this to the available developable
land remaining after the construction of the new residential units. If develop-
able land is not available, then service sector expansion in the community, in
the absence of zoning changes, is precluded. If there is sufficient developable
land, you should consult with local zoning and planning boards, and the local
officials listed above, to allocate this service growth. In doing this alloca-
tion, consider carefully the pattern of recent service sector development and
the location of new housing units. Consider also that service sector expansion
need not take place in the same community as the new housing, especially if
another community is contiguous to the site of this housing.
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4.18 STEP 16: ASSESS AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS
Description
The secondary air quality impacts of a new source industry are defined as
the additional pollutant emissions that are related to residential growth needed
to accommodate the incoming population. This step will quantify the additional
air pollutant emissions from: (1) motor vehicle trips related to the new
housing, (2) on-site fuel combustion for heating and cooling of the new housing,
and (3) off-site fuel combustion for generating the additional electricity
required by the new housing. The motor vehicle emissions that are calculated
correspond to trips for all purposes in the commutershed, including trips to
new commercial support facilities. However, on-site emissions for heating and
cooling of such commercial development is ignored. On-site fuel combustion
emissions from new housing as well as motor vehicle emissions will generally be
released as an area source, i.e., at a low density over a large area. By con-
trast, the off-site fuel combustion for generating new electricity can be
assumed to occur at one or more of the existing generating stations in the region.
Emissions are estimated in this step for six different pollutants related
to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards: sulfur oxides (SO ), total sus-
pended particulates (TSP), nitrogen oxides (NO ), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC),
carbon monoxide (CO), and lead (Pb). Emissions are not estimated for ozone (0 )
since this pollutant is formed in the atmosphere through a complex series of
photochemical reactions. Control strategies for 03 generally focus on emission
rates for NMHC and NOX. In urban areas, motor vehicles are the principal source
of NMHC emissions, which are also referred to as volatile organic compounds
(VOC). Fuel combustion normally produces small amounts of NMHC0 Due to the fact
that existing hydrocarbon emission factors for fuel combustion sources do not
distinguish the methane portion, emission estimates for these sources are on the
basis of total hydrocarbons (HC) only.
The air pollutant emissions estimated by this analysis can be translated
into ambient air quality levels using available computer dispersion models. How-
ever, due to the extensive data input requirements of such models, no attempt
has been made to incorporate them into this analysis„ A recommended intro-
duction to air quality modeling is EPA's Guideline publication.*
An example of the application of this step is given in Figure 14.
Data Output;
A) Total additional air pollutant emissions from motor vehicle trips
associated with new housing, in the year of peak housing requirements.
Units = Additional tons/year of NMHC, CO, NOX, TSP, Pb, SOX
R) Total additional air pollutant emissions from new housing fuel combus-
tion, in the year of peak housing requirements.
Units: Additional tons/year of HC, CO, NOX, TSP, SOX
**
EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Guideline on Air Quality Models,
2PA-450/2-78-027, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1978.
*since Pb emissions from all types of residential fuel combustion are negligible,
PJD is not included here.
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C) Total air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion for addi-
tional electrical generation, in the year of peak housing
requirements.
Units: Additional tons/year of HC, CO, NOx, TSP, Pb, SO
Data Input:
A) Total number of additional new housing units, by type, needed
in the year of peak housing requirements to accommodate in-
creased population from the construction and operation of the
new source industry. Housing units should be classified as
single family (H ) or multiple family (H ). The year of peak
housing requirements is determined by examining the time pe-
riod comprising the first ten years of construction and operation.
Source: Previous analysis by reviewer—Step 12.
B) Average trip lengths for work trips (L ) and other trips (L )
in miles. L can be estimated as the distance (by road)from
the centroid of new housing units to the new source industry.
L can be estimated as the distance (by road) from the cen-
troid of new housing units to the nearest central business
district.
Source: Local transportation planning agency.
C) Residential trip generation rates for trips from single fa-
mily development to work (T ) and other destinations (T ),
and from multiple family dwellings to work (T ) and other
ITIV7
destinations (T ). A trip generation rate is defined as
the 24-hour estimate of one-way vehicle trips to and from a
dwelling unit. Default values, based on nationwide statis-
tics, are T « 1.8, T » 9.0, T » 1.0, T » 5.O.*
sw so mw mo
Source: Local transportation planning agency
D) The fraction of all new housing units using various fuels for space
heating:
electricity (SH )
gas (SH ) 8
oil (Shg)
o
for domestic hot water:
electricity (HW )
gas (HW ) e
oil (HWg)
o
*Guldberg, p. and D'Agostino, R., Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects,
Volume TT_. EPA-450/3-78-014b, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1978.
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for cooling and clothes drying:
electricity (CC )
gas (CCg)
and for central air conditioning:
electricity (AC )
gas (AC ) &
oil (ACg).
o
A fraction is defined as a number between 0,0 and 1.0. Frac-
tions for a given purpose should sum to 1.0; e.g., SHe+ SHg+
SHo= 1.0. The only exception is central air conditioning
which may not be present in all new housing units. In this
case, ACe, AC , and AC should sum to the fraction of new
housing units with central air conditioning.
Source: Local planning board, developers, building inspectors,
or real estate agents.
E) The fraction of current electrical generation at power plants
in the region produced by various fuels:
coal (EG )
oil (EG f
gas (EG )
nuclear and hydroelectric (EG ).
For regions where coal is burned, the average percent sulfur
(Sc> and ash (A ) in the coal by weight is required. For re-
gions where oil is burned, the average percent sulfur (S ) in
the oil by weight is needed. For regions where air pollution
control equipment is operating at electrical power plants, the
average fraction of sulfur oxides (R ) and particulates (R)
removed from boiler flue gas should be obtained.
Source: Local utility company, or state air pollution control
agency.
Techniques (A sample application of this technique is given in Figure 14.)
(A) Motor Vehicle Emissions
Motor vehicle emissions are estimated using a simple trans-
portation model with composite emission factors contained
in EPA technical publications and generated by the EPA
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computer model MOB I LEI.*
Input to the MOBILE1 calculations were representative nationwide data
for the mix of motor vehicles by type, the distribution of the vehicle
population by age/ and the mix of cold start, hot start, and hot sta-
bilized conditions in the vehicle population. Also input were an an-
nual average ambient temperature of 60°P and an average vehicle speed
of 30 mph, chosen to represent a mix of urban, suburban, and highway
driving. The model output is shown in Appendix 1-D and can be used
to obtain NMHC, CO and NOX emission factors for a local mix of motor
vehicle types, if desired. Changes in the other input parameers, in-
cluding credits for inspection and maintenance programs , necessitate
a re-execution of the MOBILEl model. Calculation of TSP, Pb, and
SO emission factors is outlined in Appendix 1-E. The composite
emission factors (EF^^) suggested for use in this technique are sum-
marized in Tables 9 through 11 by pollutant (i) ., calendar year (j)
and region of the country (k) :
• Low altitude region
• California
• High-altitude regions (over 4,000' above MSL) .
Total additional air pollutant emissions from motor vehicle trips
associated with new housing can be calculated as follows:
NMHC (tons/year) » 1.1 x 10~6 (MILES x EF, .. )
CO (tons/year) = 1.1 x 10~6 (MILES x EF. .. )
NO (tons/year) = 1.1 x 10~6 (MILES x EF. ..)
*t ^ J JV
TSP (tons/year) =• 1.1 x 10~6 (MILES x EF. .. )
1} K
Pb (tons/year) » 1.1 x 10"12(MILES x EF...)
1JK
*EPA Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy, Mobile Source Emission Factors,
EPA-400/9-78-005, Washington, D.C., 1978.
EPA Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation, User's Guide to MOBILEl; Mobile Source
Emissions Model, EPA-400/9-78-007, Washington, D.C., 1978. Mobile2, the suc-
cessor to MOBILEl, has been under development for some time. It will not be
available for use until Spring, 1981 at the earliest, at which point it will be
distributed through the National Technical Information Service.
EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Compilation of Air Pollutant
Emission Factors; Publication No. AP-42, Third Edition, including Supplements
1-10, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1980.
Caiazza, R. et. al, User's Manual for the Lead Line Source Model (PBLSQ), Draft
EPA Publication, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 1979.
4-41
-------
TABLE 9
Composite Motor Vehicle Emission
Rates for Low Altitude Regions
Calendar
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
*Units are
NMHC
4.8
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
in micrograms
CO
44.3
40.7
37.3
33.7
30.2
27.2
24.5
22.3
20.5
19.1
18.1
17.3
16.7
16.2
15.9
15.6
15.6
15.6
15.6
15.6
Emission Rate
NOX
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
of lead per vehicle
(grams/mile)
TSP
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
mile.
PB*
7300
6800
4700
3000
2300
1600
1400
1200
950
350
440
440
440
440
440
420
420
420
420
420
SOX
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
4-42
-------
TABLE 10
Composite Motor Vehicle Emission
Rates for California
Calendar
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
NMHC
4.5
3.9
3.4
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Emission Rate (grams/mile)
CO NOX TSP PB*
38.1
35.0
32.1
29.3
26.6
24.3
22.5
21.0
19.9
19.0
18.3
17.8
17.3
17.0
16.7
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.5
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
* «
7300
6800
4700
3000
2300
1600
1400
1200
" 950
850
440
440
440
440
440
420
420
420
420
420
SOX
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
''Units are in micro-grams of lead per vehicle mile
4-43
-------
TABLE 11
Composite Motor Vehicle Emission
Rates for High Altitude Regions
Calendar
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
NMHC
6.3
5.5
4.7
4.1
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Emission Rate
CO NOX
65.5
59.0
53.0
47.0
40.9
35.6
31.1
27.4
24.4
22.0
20.2
18.9
17.9
17.2
16.6
16.2
16.2
16.2
16.2
16.2
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
(grains /mile)
TSP PB*
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
73001
6800
4700
3000
2300
1600
1400
1200
950
850
440
440
440
440
420
420
420
420
420
420
SOX
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
Units are in micrograms of lead per vehicle mile.
4-44
-------
SO (tons/year) - 1.1 x 10~6 (MILES x EF.. )
x ijk
where:
MILES (trip miles
per year = 365 (L (H T + H T )
w s sw m mw
+ L (H T + H T ))
o s so m mo
i = pollutant for which emissions are being calculated
j = year of peak housing requirements
k = region of the country in which the new source
industry is to be located
B) New Housing Emissions
On-site residential emissions are estimated with land-use based
emissions factors* developed for energy use at single-family and
multiple-family dwellings. Data required to use these factors are
estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and air conditioner compressor
operating hours (ACH) for new homes locating in the region of the new
source industry. Values for these two parameters should be read off
of Figures 12 and 13. Total additional air pollutant emissions from
new housing fuel combustion can be estimated as follows:
HC (tons/year) = 0.0005 (H (2.0 x ID'1* HDD x SH + 2.4 x 10'1 HW
s g g
+8.8 x 10-z CC + 1.4 x 10"1* ACH x AC
g g
+6.6 x IQ-* HDD x SH + 7.5 x 10'1 HW )
o o
+H (9.7 x 10~5 HDD x SH + 1.9 x KT1 HW
m g g
+9.6 x 10~2 CC + 1.3 X lO'4 ACH x AC
g g
+ 3.4 x 10"1* HDD x SH + 6.0 x 10"l HW
o o
+ 1.3 X 10~4 ACH X AC ))
o
CO (tons/year) - 0.0005 (H (5.1 x 10'^ HDD x SH + 6.0 x 10"1 HW
i g , g
+2.2 x lO'1 CC + 3.5 x 10~U ACH x AC
* g g
+1.1 x 10~d HDD x SH + 1.2 HW )
o o
+H (2.4 x 10"1* HDD x SH + 4.8 x 10~l HW
m g g
*Guldberg, P. and D'Agostino, R., Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects,
Volume II, EPA-450/3-78-014bf Research Triangle Park, NC, 1978. These factors
assume average dwelling unit floor areas of 1600 square feet (single family) and
900 square feet (multiple family). In addition, the sulfur content of distillate
fuel oil is assumed to be 0.3% by weight.
4-45
-------
r r . <.\. \
Figure 12. Normal seasonal heating degree days (base 65 F) 1941-1970.
-------
Figure 1 3. Annual air conditioner compressor operating hours for residential structures.
-------
+2.4 x 10"1 CC + 1.2 x 10~4 ACH x AC
+5.7 x I0~k HDD x SH + 1.0 HW
O O
+2.2 x 10"^ ACH x AC ))
o
NO (tons/year) = 0.0005 (H (2.6 x 10"3 HDD x SH + 3.0 HW
x s g g
+1.1 CC + 1.8 x 10"3 ACH x AC
9 g
+2,6 x 10"J HDD x SH + 3.0 HW )
o o
+H_(1.2 x 10"3 HDD x SH + 2.4 HW
g g
+1.2 CC + 6.2 x 10"4 ACH x AC
9 g
+1.4 X 10" 3 HDD X SH + 2.4 HW
+5.3 x 10"^ ACH x AC ))
o
TSP(tons/year) = 0.0005 (Hg(2.6 x 10"4 HDD x SH + 3.0 x 10"1 HW
+1.1 X 10-1 CC + 1.8 x 10-4 ACH X AC
g g
+2.2 x 10-3 HDD X SH + 2.5 HW )
o o
+H_(1.2 x 10"^ HDD x SH + 2.4 x 10"1 HW
m g g
+1.2 x 10-! CC + 6.2 x 10-5 ACH x AC
. g 9
+1.1 X 10~3 HDD x SH + 2.0 HW
o o
+4.5 x 10"4 ACH x AC ))
o
SO^(tons/year) = 0.0005 (Hs(1.5 x 1Q-5 HDD x SH + 1.8 x 10"2 HW
+6.6 x 10~3 CC + 1.1 x 10"5 ACH x AC
+9.6 x ID"3 HDD x SH + 11.0 HW )
o o
+Hffl(7.3 x 10"6 HDD x SH + 1.4 x 10"2 HW
+7.2 x 10-3 CC + 3.7 x ID"6 ACH x AC
+5.1 X 10-3 HDD x SH + 8.7 HW
o o
+6.4 x 10"3 ACH x AC ))
o
C) Power Plant Emissions
Off-site emissions related to additional electrical generation require
two calculations. First, the additional electrical load (kwh/year)
is estimated with land-use based emission factors*, and second this
*Guldberg, p. and D'Agostino, R., Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects,
Volume II. EPA-450/3-78-014b, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1978.
4-48
-------
electrical demand is translated into stationary source emissions usinq
EPA's AP-42 emission factors* and some representative assumptions,**
The additional electricity demanded by new housing can be calculated
as follows:
KWH(kwh/year) = H (3.8 HDD x SH + 4.7 ACH x AC
S S Q
+1.4 x 104 HW + 3.5 x 103 CC
+ 7.9 x 103)
+H (1.3 HDD X SH + 1.5 ACH X AC
me e
+1.1 x iOk HW + 3.8 x 103 CC
e e
+4.4 x 10 3)
Off-site power plant emissions related to generating this additional
power can be calculated as follows:
HC (tons/year) = 0.0005 KWH (1.2 x lO'4 EG
c
+1.6 x 10~k EG
o
+1.2 X lO-5 EG )
g
CO (tons/year) = 0.0005 KWH (4.0 x IQ-^ EG
+2.4 x 10-1* EG
o
+2.0 x 10-1* EG )
g
NO (tons/year) » 0.0005 KWH (2.2 x 10-2 EG
X C
+8.3 X ID"3 EG
o
+8.3 X 10-3 EG )
g
TSP (tons/year) = 0.0005 KWH (1.0-R ) (5.23 X 10~3 A x EG
pec
+6.34 x lO-^ EG
o
+1.19 X 10-1* EG )
g
*EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Compilation of Air Pollu-
tant Emission Factors, Third Edition, Supplements 1-10, Publication No. AP-42,
Research Triangle Park, NC, 1980.
**Overall power plant efficiency is assumed to be 33.3% and 31.6% respectively,
for coal and oil/gas-fired plants. A transmission loss of 10% is also assumed.
4-49
-------
Pb (tons/year) = 0.0005 KWH (5.4 x 10"6 EG
c
+3.4 x Kr 7 EG )
o
SO (tons/year) = 0.0005 KWH (1.0-R )(1.5 x 10-2 S x EG
x sec
+1.3 x 10-2 S x EG
o o
+7.1 x 10-6 EG )
g
4-50
-------
j Suppose a new source industry is planned for the region near Boston,
Massachusetts and the total number of additional housing units needed is:
• Single family, HS = 200 units
• Multiple family, Hm = 300 units
The year of peak housing requirements is determined to be 1985. Average trip
lengths are estimated as:
• Work trips, L =8 miles
• Other trips, L = 12 miles
As the local transportation agency has no data on trip generation rates, the
default values are used. The fraction of new housing units using various fuels
is projected to be:
• Space heating, SH = 0.10, SH = 0.20, SH * Q.70
Domestic hot water, HW = 0.50, HW = 0.20, HW =0.30
ego
Cooking and clothes drying, CC = 0080, CC =0.20
Central air conditioning, AC = 0.20, AC = 0.05, AC =0
The fraction of current electrical generation produced by various fuels is:
• Coal, EG = 0
• Oil, EG = 0.70, S = 1.0%
o o
• Gas, EG =» 0
9
• Nuclear & Hydroelectric, EGn =0.30
And the average fraction of pollutants removed from flue gas are:
• Sulfur, R = 0
s
• Particulates, R = 0.90
Motor vehicle emissions are estimated for a low altitude region in 1985.
The additional trip miles per year are:
MILES » 365 (8.0 (200 x 1.8 + 300 x 1.0)
+ 12 (200 x 9.0 4- 300 x 5.0))
= 1.6 x 107 miles
Figure 14. Example of the Application of Step 16, "Assess Air Pollution
Impacts"
4-51
-------
Figure 14. continued
Total additional motor vehicle air pollutant emissions are:
NMHC = 1.1 x 10"5 (1.6 x 107 x 2.4) = 42 tons/year
CO = 1.1 x 1CT6 (1.6 x 107 x 27.2) = 480 tons/year
NO = 1.1 x 1CT6 (1.6 x 107 x 3.0) = 53 tons/year
X
TSP = 1.1 x 10~5 (1.6 x 107 x 0.33) = 5.R tons/year
Pb = 1,1 x 10~12(1.6 x 107 x 1600) = 0,028 tons/year
SOV = 1.1 x 10"6 (1.6 x 107 x 0.23) = 4.0 tons/year
X
New housing emissions are based on an annual heating degree day value of
HDD = 6000 and an air conditioner operating value of ACH = 400 hours. Total
additional air pollutant emissions are:
HC - OoOOOS (200(2.0 x 10~4 x 6000 x 0.20 + 2.4 x 10"1 x 0.20
+8.8 x 10"2 x 0.20 + 1.4 x 10"1* x 400 x 0.05
+6.6 x 10"14 x 6000 x 0.70 + 7.5 x 10~l x 0.30)
+300(9.7 x 10~5 x 6000 x 0020 + 1.9 x 10~ ! x 0020
+9.6 x 10"2 x 0020 + 1.3 x lO'^ x 400 x 0.05
+3.4 x 10"4 x 6000 x 0.70 + 6.0 x 10~ l x 0.30))
= 0.60 tons/year
CO - 0.0005 (200(5.1 x lO'4 x 6000 x 0.20 + 6.0 x 10" l x 0*20
+2.2 x 10"1 x 0.20 + 3.5 x 10~ 4 x 400 x 0.05
+1.1 x 10~3 x 6000 x 0.70 + 1.2 x 0.30)
+300(2.4 x 10"4 x 6000 x 0.20 + 4.8 x 10~l x 0.20
+2.4 x 10"1 x 0.20 + 1.2 x 10" x 400 x 0.05
+507 x 10"4 x 6000 x 0.70 + 1.0 x 0.30))
» 1.0 tons/year
NO - 0.0005 (200(2.6 x 10"3 x 6000 x 0.20 + 3.0 x 0.20
- 3
+1.1 x 0.20 + 1.8 x 10 x 400 x 0.05
+2.6 x 10"3 x 6000 x 0.70 + 3.0 x 0.30)
+300(1.2 x 10~ 3 x 6000 x 0.20 + 2.4 x 0.20
+lo2 x 0.20 + 6.2 x 10~ x 400 x 0.05
+1.4 x 10" 3 x 6000 x 0.70 + 2.4 x 0.30))
= 2.9 tons/year
4-52
-------
Figure 14. continued
-k -1
TSP = OoOOOS (200(2.6 x 10 x 6000 x 0.20 + 3.0 X 10 x 0.20
-1 -k
+1.1 x 10 x 0020 + 1.8 x 10 x 400 x 0.05
-3
•(•2.2 x 10 x 6000 x 0»70 + 2.5 x 0.30)
-<+ -1
+300(1.2 x 10 x 6000 x 0.20 + 2.4 x 10 x 0.20
-1 -5
+1.2 x 10 x 0,20 + 6.2 x 10 x 400 x 0.05
-3
+1.1 x 10 x 6000 x 0.70 + 2.0 x 0.30)
= 1.9 tons/year
SO = 0.0005 (200(1.5 x 10~5 x 6000 x 0.20 + 1.8 x 10~2 x 0.20
X
+6.6 x 10~3 x 0.20 + 1.1 x 10-5 x 400 x 0.05
+9.6 x lO-3 x 6000 x 0.70 + 1.1.0 x 0.30)
+300(7.3 x 10~6 x 6000 x 0.20 + 1.4 x 10~2 x 0.20
+7.2 x lO-3 x 0.20 + 3.7 x 10~6 x 400 x 0.05
+5.1 x ID"3 x 6000 x 0.70 + 8.7 x 0.30))
= 8.0 tons/year
Power plant emissions related to additional electrical generation are based
on the following electrical load:
KWH = 200(3.8 x 6000 x 0.10 + 4.7 x 400 x 0.20
+1.4 x 101* x 0.50 + 3.5 x 103 x 0.80
+7.9 x 103)
+300(1.3 x 6000 x 0.10 + 1.5 x 400 x 0.20
+1.1 x 10^ x 0.50 + 3.8 x 103 x 0.80
+4.4 x 103)
= 8.2 x 106 kwh/year
Total additional power plant emissions are:
HC
CO
NO
x
TSP
Pb
SO
0.0005 x 8.2 x 106 (1.6 x 10'^ x 0.70) » 0.46 tons/year
0.0005 x 8.2 x 106 (2.4 x I0~k x 0.70) - 0.69 tons/year
0.0005 x 8.2 x 106 (8.3 x 10*"3 x 0.70) • 24 tons/year
0.0005 x 8.2 x 106 (1.0 - 0.9) (6.34 x lO"1* x 0.70) = 0.18 tons/year
0.0005 x 8.2 x 106 (3.4 x 10~7 x 0.70) » 0.00098 tons/year
0.0005 x 8.2 x 10s (1.0 - 0) (1.3 x KT2 x 1.0 x 0.70) - 37 tons/year
4-53
-------
Figure 14. continued
In summary/ the total secondary air pollutant emissions (in tons/year)
related to the assumed new source industry are;
NMHC
42
-
-
HC
-
0.60
0.46
CO
480
1.0
0.69
NO
X
53
2.9
24
TSP
5.8
1.9
0.18
Pb
0.028
0
0.00098
SO
X
4.0
8.0
37
Motor Vehicle
Housing
Power Plant
Total 42* 1.1* 482 80 7.9 0.029 49
*NMHC emissions are for mobile sources only. Total HC emissions are for
stationary sources only.
4-54
-------
4.19 STEP 17: ASSESS IMPACTS FROM STORMWATER RUNOFF
Description
This section is concerned with the stormwater pollution loads that may result
from new development associated with the location of a new industry. The dis-
cussion is limited to stormwater runoff; the water quality issues associated with
increased flows to municipal wastewater treatment plants are not considered here.
A discussion of increased wastewater flows to wastewater treatment plants is, how-
ever, included as an infrastructure demand in Section 4.160
New development will typically affect both the quantity and quality of surface
runoff. By altering surface runoff patterns, particularly the amount of impervious-
ness (i.e., streets, sidewalks, parking lots, etc.), development will generally
increase the volume of rainfall available to runoff. This becomes a fundamental
issue, of course, for designing adequate drainage systems for new development.
Also important, however, are the potential downstream short-term flooding effects
of the increased runoff. Figure 15 shows typical effects of urbanization on
runoff.
The runoff will contain a number of pollutants that have accumulated in the
drainage area. Typically, impervious surfaces will accumulate more pollutants
than areas that remain undisturbed. Thus, stormwater runoff will carry pollutant
loads that will vary according to the amount of imperviousness created by the
development. The development itself increases the rate of disposition of pollu-
tants, through mechanisms such as road salting, erosion of pavement, spills,
litter, or construction activities. Table 12 illustrates magnitude of changes--
both quantity and quality—in an example 470-acre watershed.
Accurately predicting quantity and quality effects for new development can
be complicated and time-consuming. In particular, there are a number of data-
intensive models that have been developed for predicting stormwater pollutant
loads. These are not discussed here because they are beyond the scope of review
considered appropriate for this guidebook.* The techniques used in this guide-
book are generally appropriate for order of magnitude calculations for small to
large watersheds. These techniques are not adequate, for instance, in looking
at the effects of a shopping center. There is also no attempt in this section to
analyze in-stream effects — either flooding or water quality. The guidebook user
faces a far more complicated task in estimating actual water quality effects. The
user should consult the Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual for a discussion of
techniques.
An example of the application of this step is given in Figure 17.
Data Output
A) Mean runoff flows in a given drainage area where development impacts
' are being considered.
Units * cubic feet per second (cfs)
B) Mean runoff pollutant load for a given drainage area for a given storm
event where development impacts are being considered.
For a discussion of more sophisticated and complex techniques, see U.S. EPA
Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual, Washington, D.C., EPA 600/9-76-014, July,
1976.
4-55
-------
Urban
M-l
0
-------
TABLE 12
EFFECT OF CHANGING LAND USE ON STORM RUNOFF
FROM 470 ACRE SUBAREA
Annual Annual
Runoff BOD Load
Land Use (inches) (pounds)
100% Open ' 8,34 5.70
67% Single-Family
33% Multi-Family 11.72 23.40
Source: Roesner, Larry, A. "A Storage, Treatment, Overflow, and Runoff
Model for Metropolitan Masterplanning" in Short Course Proceedings;
Applications of Stormwater Management Models * 1976. Cincinnati: EPA 600/2-
77-065, March 1977, p. 316.
4-57
-------
Units - Ib/day of the following pollutants:
Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD_)
Suspended Solids (S3)
Volatile Solids (VS)
Total Phosphorus (PO.)
Total Nitrogen (N).
Data Input
A) Area in acres of the drainage area being considered
Source: from previous steps.
B) Mean rainfall intensity for an average storm in the drainage area.
Source: local weather station; or 208 planning agency that has done
rainfall analysis in connection with its own urban stormwater analysis.
C) Percent impervious area in the drainage area being considered.
Source: from projected land use from previous steps. Percent impervious
will vary by the type of land use. The user can use aerial photographs
of similar existing development to calculate this or can use the general
guide given below:
Land Use Category Percent Impervious Area
Residential
Low Density (1-4 units/acre) 20
Medium Density (5-10 units/acre) 40
High Density (11+ units/acre) 60
Commercial 80
Industrial 70
Institutional, Public 30
Open, Undeveloped 0
The percent impervious area for the entire drainage area is calculated
by taking a weighted average for the drainage area. For example,
assume an area has the following land use characteristics:
Low density residential 40%
Medium density residential 20%
High density residential 0
Commercial 10%
Industrial 0
Institutional/public 5%
Open, Undeveloped 25%
100%
4-58
-------
The overall percent impervious area would be
= (.40) • (20) + (.20) • (40) + (0) + (.10) • (80) + (0) +
(.5) • (30) + (.25) • (0)
= 39%.
D) Runoff coefficient value for the drainage area.
Source: Figure 11 and percent impervious area from C).
E) Land use cover in the drainage area in acres using the follow-
ing categories: residential, commercial, industrial, other
developed areas.
Source: from Step 11, updated land use map.
F) Population density in people per acre.
Source: from information developed in Steps 2 and 3.
Techniques
An example of the application of these techniques is given in Figure 17.
I. Quantity
Mean runoff flow can be estimated by using the rational formula:
QR = Cv IA (1)
where:
QR = mean runoff flow (cfs)
Cv = average runoff coefficient
I = mean rainfall intensity (in/hr)
A = drainage area (acres)
As discussed above, Cv as shown in Figure 16 is calculated as a function of
average imperviousness of the drainage area.
II, Quality
Mean runoff pollutant loadings are calculated by the following equation:
WR • 5.4 • c QR (2)
where:
WR = mean runoff loading rate (Ibs/day)
is = mean pollutant concentration
QR » mean runoff flow (cfs).
5.4 - conversion figure (lb/day/cfs-mg/1)
QR is obtained from the calculation above using equation (1). In order to obtain
c~, the following equation is used:
c- = a (i, j) • p(PD) (3)
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LIMIT OF RUNOFF COEFFICIENT
TIGHT SOIL OR STEEP LAND
''STORM MODEL EQUATION
(24,25)
LOOSE SOILS OR FLAT LAND (22)
100% OPEN; TIGHT SOILS OR STEEP LAND
IOO% OPENiLOOSE SOILS OR FLAT LAND
3O 40 50 SO 70 80
PERCENT IMPERVIOUS AREA
90 IOO
FIGURE'16. RUNOFF COEFFICIENT DETERMINATION FROM LAND COVER INFORMATION.
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where:
c~ = concentration of pollutant (j) from land use (i) in (mg/1)
a(i,j) = constant for pollutant (j) and land use (i) in (mg/1)
p(PD) = population function.
The land use categories and pollutants are shown below:
LAND USE AND POLLUTANTS
Pollutants
Land Uses
1=1 Residential
i=2 Commercial
i=3 Industrial
i=4 Other Developed Areas
j = 1 BOD , Total
j = 2 Suspended Solids (SS)
j = 3 Volatile Solids, Total (VS)
j = 4 Total P04 (as PO4)
j = 5 Total N (as N)'
The a(i,j) can be calculated from the following conversion:
a(i,j) = (a(i,j) • F)/Cv(i) (4)
where:
F = 4.42, a constant (mg/l)/(16/acre-in)
Cv(i) = runoff coefficient for land use (i)
Cv(i) is estimated according to the procedures described above. The values for
a are shown in Table 13 below:
TABLE 13
Land Use
i=l Residential (a)
i=2 Commercial (a)
i=3 Industrial (a)
FACTORS
BOD 5
Cjr.ll
0.799
3.20
1.21
(*)
pollutant
PO,
i=4 Other Developed Areas (a) 0.113
* units are lb/acre-*in.
VS '4 N
(j-3) (j-4) (j-5)
16.3 9.45 0.0336 0.131
22.2 14.0 0.0757 0.206
29.1 14.3 0.0705 0.277
2.70 2.6 0.00994 0.0605
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For the purposes of this section, we have used average C'v(i) values:
for i = 1 (Residential), Cv(l) = .30
i = 2 (Commercial), Cv(2) = .70
i = 3 (Industrial), Cv(3) = .60
i = 4 (Other Developed), Cv(4) = .10
Table 14 lists the converted "a" factor to be used in equation (3). You may
adjust the "a" factor according to equation (4) if you feel that a different
runoff coefficient (C ) is more appropriate for a particular land use in the
drainage area.
In order to estimate the population function, p(PD), the following equations
are used:
0.54
for i = 1 (Residential): p(PD) - 0.142 + 0.218 (PD) (5)
i = 2 or 3 (Commercial or Industrial): p(PD) = 1.0 (6)
i = 4 (Other Developed Areas): p(PD) = 0.142 (7)
where:
PD = population density in people/acres.
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Assume the following data inputs:
A) Area = 50 acres
B) Mean rainfall intensity for an average storm = 0.055 in/hr
C), D), E) Land use and Cv values (from Table 14)
Residential = 20 acres; .30
Commercial = 4 acres; .70
Industrial = 0 acres
Other Developed = 4 acres; .10
Open, Undeveloped = 22 acres; 0
F) Population density = 20 people/acre.
Also assume that we are only interested in BODs loading values.
First, calculate c" values for each land use type in the drainage area
using equation (3). To do this, p(PD) values are calculated from equations
(5) , (6) , and (7) .
Residential: p(PD)1 = (0.142 + 0.218 (20)°*54)
= 1.42
Commercial: p(PD>2 = (1)
= 1.0
Other: p(PD)4 - (.142)
• .142
Next, calculate the c" values for each land use type using the above results and
Table 14.
Residential: c^ - (11.8) (1.24) - 14.6 mg/1
Commercial: V = (20.2) (1) =20.2 mg/1
Other: c~4 - (5.0) (.142) - .7 mg/1
Second, estimate W for each of the land use types. This first requires that
QR be calculated for each land use type of equation QR = C IA.
Residential: Q^ - (.30)-(.055 in.hr)-(20 acres)•(1 cfs/(acre-in/hr))
= .33 cfs
Figure 17. Bcample of the Application oif Step 17, "Assess Impacts Fran
Stormwater Runo£f
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Figure 17. cont.
Commercial: QR2 =* (.70)-(.055 in/hr)•(4)•(lcfs/(acre-in/hr))
= .15 cfs
Other: QR4 = (.10) (.055 in/hr)•(4)•(Icfs/(acre-in/hr))
= .02 cfs.
Now, calculate WR for land use type, using
WR = 5.4 • c-QR
Residential: W^ = (5.4 lb/day/cfs-mg/1)•(14.6 mg/l)-(.33 cfs)
= 26 Ib/day BOD5
Commercial: WR2 =» (5.4 lb/day/cfs-mg/1)•(20.2)•(.15 cfs)
=16.3 Ib/day BOD5
Other: WR4 = (5.4 lb/day/cfs-mg/1)•(.7 mg/l)-(.02)
= .07 Ib/day BODs
WR Total " WR1 + WR2 + WR4
= 26 + 16.3 + .07
- 42.37 Ib/day BOD_
This represents the BODs loads for an average storm event. The value is, of
course, only useful for this type of screening exercise or where one alternative
land use effect is being compared with another one. The vlaue does not take into
account site-specific factors as slope and storage.
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TABLE 14
"a" FACTORS* FOR GIVEN Cv(i)
Pollutant
Land Use
i=l Residential (a)
i=2 Commercial (a)
i=3 Industrial (a)
i=4 Other Developed Areas (a)
Cy(J)
0,30
0.70
0.60
0.10
BOD5
11.8
20.2
8.9
i
5.0
SS
(j=2)
240
140
214
119
VS
(j=3)
139
88
105
115
P°4
(j=4)
0.50
0.48
0.52
0.44
N
(j=5)
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.7
*units are in mg/l,
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4020 STEP 18: ASSESS NOISE IMPACTS
Description
This category is generally most significant as a primary impact resulting
from construction or operation of the facility and associated transportation
infrastructure. The quantification of noise impacts is difficult, and there-
fore a primarily qualitative approach is recommended.
Data Output
A) Identification of noise-sensitive areas affected by increased traffic
attributable to the facility.
B) Identification of residential or service sector growth in areas with
high ambient noise levels.
Data Input
A) Location of new residential development, by community.
Source: Step 13.
B) Location of new commercial development, by community.
Source: Step 15.
C) Location of noise-sensitive areas
Source: updated land use map, Step 11.
D) • pattern of traffic in community.
• expansion of roads and highways necessary to accomodate
new traffic.
Source: local traffic engineer or public works official
E) Location of facility.
Source: Applicant.
F) Location of potentially high ambient-noise level land uses.
Source: updated land use map, Step 11.
G) Location of known colocating industries.
Source: Step 21.
Technique
1) Present the traffic engineer with the overlays from Steps 13 and 15
which identify the location of—new-housing and commercial development.
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Also, give the engineer the number of new housing units
and the associated population. Identify and point out the
location of known colocating industries„ Ask the engineer
to estimate:
• the increase in traffic attributable to the new housing
and the facility.
• the increase in traffic between the new housing and
commercial facilities.
• the increase in traffic between known colocating
facilities and new housing.
• the expansion of roads and highways necessary to
accommodate the new traffic. Determine as precisely
as possible which roads will require expansion.
You should use this information to pinpoint noise-sensitive areas, such as
schools, hospitals, and even private residences, which may be affected by
increased traffic. Private residences are included here because they may
be affected if the facility has a 3-shift work day. At the end of each
shift, noise levels from departing workers may be unacceptable, particularly
if these workers leave work during the night.
Based on the overlays, you can pinpoint any residential or commercial
growth which will be located in areas with currently high ambient noise
levels. Manufacturing and warehouse land uses, and highway/street level
uses are most likely to conflict with induced residential or commercial
growth. If the community has a noise control official, consult with this
individual about potential noise conflicts.
4.21 STEP 19: ASSESS PESTICIDES IMPACTS
Description
There are potential conflicts between agriculture pesticide use and new
residential development. The assessment in this step is qualitative,
Data Output
A) Location of potential conflicts between agricultural pesticide use
, and new housing.
Data Input
A) Location of agricultural land uses.
Sources updated land use map, Step 11.
B) Location of agricultural areas with heavy pesticide use.
Source: local agricultural extension office (USDA) or state
department of agriculture.
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C) Location of new housing within communities.
Source: Step 13.
Technique
Do this analysis only for communities with new residential development.
Consult with the officials listed above to identify areas of heavy pesticide
use. Compare these areas to the overlays showing residential growth. Any
residential area adjacent to an area of heavy pesticide use is at risk, until
mitigation measures can be devised. Identify the types of pesticides being
used, and the general pattern of application (time-of-day and frequency of
application).
4022 STEP 20: ASSESS IMPACTS ON SENSITIVE AREAS
Description
This category includes all legally or scientifically defined sensitive
areas in any communities expected to absorb new housing units. These areas
include:
wetlands
floodplains
coastal zones
prime and unique agricultural land
steep slopes
stream embankments
historic or archaeological sites
wildlife habitats
alluvial valley floors
forests or woodlands
sole source aquifers
seismically active areas
endangered species habitats
wild and scenic river
local, state, or federal recreation area
areas of particular scenic value.
Data Output
A) Identification and quantification of sensitive areas at risk. (See Figure 18)
Data Input
A) Location of new residential development.
Source: Step 13.
B) Location of new commercial development
Source: Step 15.
C) Location of known colocating industries.
Source: Step 21.
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Sensitive Area
Contact
Wetlands and Floodplains
Coastal Zone
Prime and Unique Agricultural Land
Steep Slopes
Stream Embankments
Historic or Archaelogical Sites
Wildlife or Endangered Species Habitats
Alluvial Valley Floors
Forests or Woodlands
Sole Source Aquifer
Environmental Office of the Fish and
Wildlife Service of the regional
office of Department of the Interior
CDOIJ .
1) State coastal zone management
office, usually a part of the State
Office of Environmental Affairs or
Natural Resources,
2} The Coastal Zone Information
Center or the Director of the State
Programs, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
State Land Use Committee Chairperson,
Soil Conservation Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture.
U.S.G.S. topographical map.
U.S.G.S topographical map or general
site location map.
1) Division of Cultural Resources
of the regional office of DOI.
2) National Register of Historic
Places.
1) Office of Endangered Species
of the Office of Federal Assistance,
Fish & Wildlife Service at the
regional office of DOI.
2) Office of Marine Mammals and
Endangered Species of the National
Marine Fisheries Services, NOAA.
Office of Environmental Geology,
USGS.
U.S. Forest Service of the regional
office of DOI.
State Water Resources Division,
USGS.
Figure 18 Sotraees to Contact to Identify Sensitive Areas.
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Figu:ie 18
Sensitive Area
Seismically Active Areas
Wild and Scenic Rivers
Local, State or Federal Recreation Area
Areas of Particular Scenic Value
Contact
Office of Earthquake.Studies, USGS.
Heritage, Conservation, and
Recreation Service, regional office
of DOI.
National Park Service of the regional
office of DOI.
National Park Service of the
regional office of DOI
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D) Location of sensitive areas in any community expected to
experience residential growth.
Source: Updated land use map, Step 13. Some sensitive areas may
have been identified at Levels A and B.
Technique
Plot the location of sensitive areas on an overlay. Compare this overlay
to those developed for Steps 13 and 15, and also compare these overlays to
the location of known colocators (Step 21).
1) Any sensitive lands adjacent to new housing, new commercial
sector activity, or known colocators is assumed to be at risk.
2) Land which is considered legally developable under local zoning,
but which is also considered sensitive, is assumed to be at risk
if it is located in the same community as new housing, new commer-
cial activity, or a known colocator. This land is at risk even if
it is not immediately adjacent to the new growth.
3) If growth in a community exhausts the supply of legally develop-
able land, then all sensitive areas in the community are assumed
to be at risk, regardless of whether they abut the new growth.
The results of Steps 11 and 13 will tell you whether all develop-
able land in a community is consumed by residential growth.
4.23 STEP 21: IDENTIFY KNOWN COLOCATORS
Suppliers of raw materials, buyers of finished products, or industries
attracted by potential agglomeration economies may colocate with the new
source. Steps 22 and 23 can only be undertaken if you can identify specific
known colocators. You can identify these companies by consulting with:
• the applicant
• the local economic development agency, and chamber of commerce
• the local or regional planning commission.
Generally speaking, it will not be possible to identify known colocators,
given that this colocation is based upon the successful completion of the
applicant's facility, and this facility will not yet have received approval
to proceed to construction. The adequacy of the transportation network in
the United States and in most regions of the country means that colocation
within the impact area is not a necessity for the successful operation of a
business which buys from or supplies the facility.
In the absence of information about known colocators, do not assume or
infer that specific industries will colocate in the impact area. If appropri-
ate, you may include a paragraph in the EIS which details that the location of
additional facilities in the impact area may significantly strain the housing
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market and available infrastructure, and may lead to additional induced growth
with potentially serious physical impacts. Your decision to include this type
of very brief analysis will depend on the magnitude of the secondary impacts
from the facility itself.
4o24 STEP 22: CALCULATE THE SITE REQUIREMENTS OF KNOWN COLOCATORS
Description
This analysis is undertaken only if the applicant or local officials know
of a specific company which is locating within the impact area as a direct
result of the development or location of the facility.
Data Output
A) Location of the colocating facility.
Source: applicant; representative of the colocating company/-
local economic development board; local real estate agent
representing the colocating company.
B) Estimated number of acres required by the colocating company
for the main facility and associated infrastructure.
Source: same as A).
Technique
Collect the information supplied by the sources listed above. These data
are used for the noise and sensitive area evaluations (Steps 18 and 20).
4.25 STEP 23: CALCULATE THE INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS OF KNOWN COLOCATORS
Description
This analysis is done only for known colocators. The major infrastructure
requirements of interest are:
• water supply
• energy supply
• solid waste collection
• wastewater treatment.
These infrastructure requirements represent only infrastructure essential to
construction or operation at the site of the colocator's facility. Infrastructure
supplied off-site to employees operating or constructing the facility is con-
sidered in Step 14.
Data Output
A) Additional infrastructure required to service the activities that
occur at the facility site.
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Data Input
A) Location of colocating facility.
Source: Step 21.
B) Number of employees of colocator at peak construction, and during
stable operations, and number of operating shifts.
Source: Step 21.
C) Requirements of the facility for the services provided in the
four infrastructure categories listed above.
Source: a representative of the colocating company.
•D) Acreage of facility.
Source: Step 21.
Technique
In the absence of cooperation from representatives of the colocating
company, there are no valid standard multipliers available to quantify these
infrastructure requirements; these requirements are highly specific to the
construction and operating characteristics of the facility.
Ask a representative of the company to identify and quantify specific
infrastructure needs in the four categories listed above. Present these
resource estimates to the local utilities, and to local officials responsible
for solid waste, wastewater treatment, and water supply, and ask them to
identify if available reserve capacity can accommodate the company's needs.
If the representative of the colocating company refuses to cooperate
with this analysis, consult the local officials listed above anyway. In the
case of a substantial colocator, they should be able to estimate the require-
ments of the facility, as few companies will select a site for a facility
without checking with local officials concerning the adequacy of infrastruc-
ture.
4.26: STEP 24: PREPARE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
The previous 23 steps have outlined specific steps for the assessment of
secondary impacts of new facilities or projects. The results of these assess-
ments should be incorporated into a discrete section of the EIS devoted to these
impacts.
In preparing any portion of an Environmental Impact Statement, you should
refer to the CEQ "Regulations for Implementing the Procedural Provisions of
NEPA,"* and to the regulations of the lead agency responsible for supervising
the preparation of the statement. Every Federal agency was required to adopt
*40 CFR 1500 to 1508. .
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appropriate procedures to supplement the CEQ regulations. EPA promulgated its
procedures as 40 CFR 6, "Implementation of Procedures on the National Environ-
mental Policy Act," effective December 15, 1979.
The contents of the EIS should be as follows:*
a) Cover sheet
b) Summary
c) Table of contents
d) Purpose of and need for action
e) Alternatives, including proposed action
f) Affected environment
g) Environmental consequences**
h) List of preparers
i) List of agencies, organizations, and persons to whom copies of
the statement are sent
j) Index
k) Appendices (if any).
This is a standard format for EISs, which should be followed unless you deter-
mine there is a "compelling reason to do otherwise."***Consult the CEQ regula-
tions for a more detailed discussion of the contents of each of these sections.
The section on environmental consequences should include discussions of:
• direct (primary) effects and their significance
• indirect (secondary) effects and their significance*
Secondary effects are the entire focus of this user manual.
We recommend that primary and secondary impacts be treated in separate
*40 CFR 1502.10.
**See especially sections 102(2)(c)(i), (ii), (iv), and (v) of the National
Environmental Policy Act.
***40 CFR 1502.10.
+40 CFR 1502.16.
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sections of the chapter on "environmental consequences/" both because of the
very different nature of these two types of impacts, and to emphasize the po-
tential importance of secondary impacts.
The order of exposition of the secondary impacts section of the EIS should
follow the order of the steps outlined in this chapter of the user manual. You
should emphasize the results from each step of the analysis, rather than the
steps used to arrive at these results.
A frequent criticism of EISs is that they are encyclopedic, and it can be
exceedingly difficult to identify the major conclusions from the analysis. The
CEQ regulations state that
the text of final environmental impact statements shall normally be
no less than 150 pages and for proposals of unusual scope or com-
plexity, shall normally be less than 300 pages.*
Therefore, although documentation of the steps you used to reach a particular
result is essential, you should severely curtail the amount of documentation in
the EIS. This documentation should, however, be available outside of the EIS
itself for you or other individuals to reference,,
*40 CFR 1502.7. 4.75
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APPENDIX I. A: Equation for Indirect Employment and Population Impacts
Both Level B and Level C require the calculation of the total direct and
indirect population and employment effects attributable to the location of
a facility in the impact area. To calculate these effects, the user estimates
population and employment multipliers. A more detailed derivation of these
multipliers is given below.
Let E be the increment in basic employment because of the new source
P S
in general « = — , 8 - —
define the population and employment impacts from E in the ith round as
P(i) and S (i) , respectively, then
P(2) - ccS(l) - eegE
S(2) = SP<2) = («6)2E
P(n) = a(oc0)n-lE
S(n) - (oc6)nE
therefore, P - P(l) + P (2) + . . . + P(n) + .
Total population,
z
«E
1 . ocf
similarly, the total employment impact (EI>) from the new source is direct
employment, E, plus indirect employment, S
and ET = E + S(l) + S(2) + . . . + S(n) + . . .
» E +,<=££ + (
» E I ("6)1
or,
I.A-1
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APPENDIX i.B: Calculating Costs for Standard Facilities
Costs for standard facilities may be estimated by using McGraw Hill's
Dodge Building Cost Calculator and Valuation Guide which is available in yearly
subscriptions consisting of an original guide and three quarterly updates.
Since the guide's primary goal is to estimate current costs, it is essential
that the most recent issue be used. The costs listed in the guide are based
on actual prices for construction contracted in all regions of the United
States. In order to arrive at estimates that are "reasonably correct," costs
at the low-to-mid range of competitive bidding are listed. The guide excludes
any land costs, closing costs or financing charges associated with the facility.
Included, however, is a set of conditions to be considered when choosing a site
for construction.
The guide is divided into six sections representing major classifications
of facilities: residential, commercial and industrial, educational and religious,
public, medical, and rural. Under each of these classifications are several
specific building types. For example, eight types of public buildings are
listed — fire stations, municipal buildings, armories, public libraries, tele-
phone buildings, clubs, health and recreational buildings, and air terminals.
The first step in using the guide is to locate the appropriate type of building
desired. Next, the construction method used (steel and concrete frame, masonry
wall, etc.) and quality of the building are considered. Once these characteris-
tics are identified, a description of a model building in terms of structure,
Plumbing, heating, ventilation, air conditioning, wiring, flooring, built-in
equipment and functional areas along with pictures of representative buildings,
can be located in the guide. Next, the gross floor area of the proposed build-
ing is calculated by estimation techniques set forth by the American Institute
of Architects. The gross floor area is used to determine the base cost per
square foot of the proposed building, Changes to the base cost are made if
any particular aspects of the proposed building differ from those of the model
building featured in the guide. Base costs for any special areas not included
in the model, such as elevators and decks, are also determined.
The final step is to arrive at an appropriate "local cost multiplier",
since the base costs per square foot were calculated for the base year of
1970. Specific cities throughout the U.S. have multipliers for four construc-
tion methods: steel construction, masonry construction (including concrete),
frame construction, and average construction, a category to be used when the
above methods are combined. Multipliers apply to any location within a 25
mile radius of the city. If a multiplier is needed for any area not covered
in the guide, the editors of the guide will develop one for a subscriber at
no extra charge, if supplied with basic information about the location. Once
the multiplier has been determined, it is multiplied by the total base cost
to determine the total estimated cost of the building.
I.B-1
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APPENDIX I.C: Summary of Construction Worker Case Studies
One group of individuals that may have a strong impact on the region
where a new source facility - particularly a large scale energy or resource
development project - is sited is the team of construction workers. Con-
struction time for a major facility generally ranges from 5-15 years. Since
the average construction worker works on the facility for the life of the
project, his/her presence in the community is felt for a considerable length
of time. Several case studies have analyzed the effects of these workers on
affected communities in Louisiana, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Utah,
Alaska, Oregon, Nebraska, Washington, Idaho and Pennsylvania, (See list of
sources at the end of this section.)
The population influx attributable to construction workers who move into
the impact area is dependent upon
• the percentage of workers who have families,
• the proportion of workers who bring their families to the
impact area,
• the average family size of construction workers.
While the findings vary, most studies indicate that 200 to 300 people total
will enter the impact area for each 100 construction workers.
Average family size for construction workers is fairly stable across all
studies we have reviewed. There is some evidence that the family size of
construction workers is generally lower than the average for families already
residing in the impact area.
The percentage of construction workers who move into the impact area with
their families is dependent on the length of the project, feasibility of
commuting to the region from other areas, and availability and type of housing
in the siting area, Construction workers are often willing to drive 1 to l«s
hours or 60 to 70 miles for a one-way commute to the construction site.
Housing Impacts
The strain on local housing markets is regarded as one of the most
serious negative effects associated with the population growth which may
accompany a new facility. According to the Wyoming Department of Economic
Planning & Development, "housing is often the most immediate and critical
area associated with boomtown impact because of the complex process involved
in satisfying housing requirements."*
The key to the housing problem is the excess demand for housing that may
be created by a population categorized as "temporary." The fact that construc-
tion workers are not permanent residents of the area has implications for both
*Dept. of Economic Planning & Development, Office of the Chief of State
Planning, Housing finance: Implications for the State of Wyoming, Cheyenne,
Wyoming (March 1977).
I.C-1
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the price and type of housing that will be available.
The increased demand, for housing is reflected most strongly in the
demand for single family housing. Most construction workers prefer single
family homes, although they may not in every case be able to afford them. As
demand increases for single-family housing, prices increase, eeteris paribus.
This price increase further prevents some workers who desire single-family
homes from purchasing them. This situation may be worsened by the fact that
existing houses may be condemned to allow for the physical siting of the
facility and buffer zones, or may become less desirable because of proximity
to the facility.
The provision of new housing may not occur as quickly as desired for
several reasons. Houses built in a short period of time are generally of
a lesser quality, and many local builders are unwilling to build such "cut-
rate" homes. Modular prefabricated houses, although a likely solution, may
be ruled out by local rules and builder's preferences. Financing from local
sources of funds may be difficult to obtain, or the cost of financing a home
through available funds may be prohibitive.* Due to the fact that large-scale
industrial plants are often sited in areas remote from any large population
center, the supply of houses may already be tight; in rural areas, little
speculative building occurs, and houses are often custom-built.
As a result of the shortages of single-family housing, workers must seek
alternate modes of housing. Mobile homes often accommodate those workers unable
to find suitable housing elsewhere; however, the general sentiment of construc-
tion workers is that mobile homes are undesirable. Many workers choose to
live instead in "temporary" forms of housing such as boarding rooms, motel
rooms, and recreational vehicles other than mobile homes. In addition, sub-
standard housing that was not in use before construction began may be utilized.
The conversion of one-family houses to two-family houses may also occur.
Despite the increase in available housing caused by the easing of
quality standards, mobile homes accommodate many construction workers, From
1970-1974, the incidence of mobile homes in Sweetwater County,.Wyoming rose
"760%, largely as a result of the Jim Bridger Project, a 2,000 megawatt power
plant. •
It should be noted that the housing situation may strongly affect the
ability of the community's infrastructure to respond to the strain resultina
from the population increase in the region. Concerned communities that try
to recruit doctors, teachers, etc, to the area will have difficulty doing so
if the available housing is inadequate.
*Lack of funds may be due to a tight money market, or be attributable
to banker's prejudices against construction workers.
•Campbell, Kimberly A., Case Studies on Energy Impact No. 2: Controlling
Boom Town Development in Sweetwater and Uinta Counties. Wyoming. National
Association of Counties, Washington D.C., 1976.
I.C-2
-------
LIST OF SOURCES FOR CONSTRUCTION WORKER CASE STUDIES
Baldwin, Thomas E. and Roberta Poetsch, An Approach to Assessing Local
Sociocultural Impacts Using Projections of Population Growth and Composition.
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, 1977.
Greene, Marjorie R. and Martha G. Curry, The Management of Social and
Economic Impacts Associated with the Construction of Large-Scale Projects:
Experiences from the Western Coal Development Communities. Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories, Richland, Washington, 1977.
Institute for Policy Research, University of Wyoming, Socioeconomic
Longitudinal Monitoring Project. The Old West Regional Commission, Billings,
Montana, 1979.
Pennsylvania Power and Light Company, Community Affairs Department,
A Monitoring Study of Community Impacts for the Susquehanna Steam Electric
Station. Pennsylvania Power & Light Company, Allentown, Pennsylvania, 1976.
Pennsylvania Power and Light Company, Community Affairs Department,
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station Community Impact Monitoring Study; An
Update. Pennsylvania Power & Light Company, Allentown, Pennsylvania, 1978.
Mountain West Research, Inc., Construction Worker Profile. The Old West
Regional Commission, Billlings, Montana, 1975.
Campbell, Kimberly A., Case Studies on Energy Impact. No, 2: Controlling
Boom Town Development in Sweetwater and Uinta Counties, Wyoming. National
Association of Counties, Washington, D.C., 1976.
USR&E, Employment Growth in Rural Areas, Office of Economic Opportunity,
Washington, D.C. 20506,
University of Wyoming, Black Thunder Project Research team, Final Environ'
mental Assessment: Black Thunder Mine Site, October 1976.
I.C-3
-------
APPENDIX 1-D
NATIONWIDE AVERAGE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION
RATES FOR NMHC , CO, AND NO
MOBILE1 INPUT DATA ASSUMPTIONS
Motor Vehicle Mix by Type
80.3% Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
5.8% Light-duty trucks, 0-6000 Ib GVW* (LDT1)
5,8% Light-duty trucks, over 6000 Ib GVW (LDT2)
4.5% Heavy-duty gasoline trucks (HDG)
3.1% Heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDD)
0,5% Motorcycles (MC)
100.0%
Vehicle Operation Mode
20 06% cold start mode
27o3% hot start mode
52.1% not stabilized mode
100.0%
Ambient Temperature: 60 F
Average Vehicle Speed: 30 mph
Geographic Region; Low Altitude, California, and High-Altitude (Above 4000' MSL)
Year of Composite Emissions: 1980 through 1999 inclusive.
*Gross vehicle weight
I.D-1
-------
'H^lhlUL AVttoACL HLJCk VcHICLt; tfHSSllU* *
MC LMJ<,SJL>N FACTORS INCLCLL LVAP. HC LMISSIUN
CAt. YlAkJ
UM! 49-STATL
LLW
MUti HC: 4.04
LXhAUST CC: 36.62
EXHAUST NOX: 3.04
VEh. lYF'E
TLHP: 60.C(F)
3C.J:30.0/30.0/3u.G
CUtVQSITt Et'lSilLIN
LOTl IOT2 HOG
4.96 J.-.C4 15.17
44.96 56.73 160. Ofa
3.11 t,.4t> 11.29
LUV LUTl LOT2 H(
37.26
3.E3
CAL. YtAK: 19b3
: 'iS-STATh
LOV
NON-Ui.TH HC: 2.5l
EXHAUST CC: 24.of
EXHAUST NUX: 2.3t
VEh. TYPE
UMP: 60.C(F)
3G.0:30.0/30.0/3'J.O
COMPOSITE EH SSI UK
LOTl LUT2
3.74 t.SO
41.D6 50.62
2.62 4.31
LUV LOTl LOT2 HtG
U.UC3/C.O 56/0.058/0. 04
MPH (3o.O) 20. 6/ 27
HDD PC
1>/0. 03 1/0.
. 3/ 20.6
FACfLKi (GM/MILE)
HCG
1C.77
17J.V3
10. bO
HCD
2.92
17.32
17. 6i>
MC
3.UG
14. b2
C.52
ALL MCDES
3.17
33.72
3.35
CAL.
K: 19M4
HO-STATu
LCV
N(jK-Htlh HC: 2. It
fcXHAULT CG: 21.46
EXHAUST Nu>: 2.21
VEH. TYJt
IfcHP: 60.0(F)
3C.O:30.0/3'J.O/:iU.G
CLPPflSITE EMS5 llih
LOTl Li)T?
3.39 t.3b
3P.53 47.51
2.?U 4.04
LUV LDT1 LDT2 HOG
(J.UC3/G. 058/0.05G/0.04
1IJH (jO.O) 20.6/ 27
FACfChS (GH/M1LE)
HDG ' HCD HC
S.4C. 2.69 2.7
-------
NUfi-IU. [> ht: l.'M 3.J7 4.7'-,
EXHAUST CE : lb.93 35.79 44!o<«
EXHAUSI NLX: 2.1C 2.66 3.71
Li . ^ i
6U.22
IC.JL
lfc.l«i
1 . «y
2 .02
CUKPOSIT
LOTl
2. 78
32.67
t EMSSU
LOT2
4. 19
40.43
3.37
JK FACILKS
HOG
136.*15
9.66
(GK/M1LE
hCD
2 .31
16. 9t
13.89
)
MC
1 .3ii
6.57
0.36
ALL MCUES
2.16
& • A »•*
24.46
2.t3
CAL. YhAK: 1987
iN: 49-STATE
IYPe: LUV Ll)T1
i£} ^-, 0.a03/C.0
30. 0/30.0 MPH (30.0)
HOD P
/0. 031/0.
20. 6/ 27. 3/ 2u.6
NUN-ML
tXHAUS
EXHACS
T
1
h hC:
CC:
NCX:
LOV
1.53
15.21
1.96
COMPOSITE
LOTl
2. '32
29.93
2.34
EMISb
LOT2
3.72
37. 3C
3.10
1UN FACTL'KS
HOG
6.4fc
12'.. 64
S.OS
(GM/M1LE)
hCD
2.19
16.88
11.72
1
5
C
MC
.01
.3ti
.29
ALL
1
22
MCUES
.96
.32
.66
CAL. YLAK: 19ay
REGIUN: <»S
« TYPE
6J.C(F)
3C. 0:30.0/30.0/30.0
LDV LOTl LDT2
0.aC3/C.Ot)e/O.Ob8/C.C45/0.031/0.005
MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ i7.3/ 20.6
EXhAUSf
EXHAUST
•- HC:
CD:
NCX:
L!JV
13.V;
1.92
COMPOSITE Eh
LOTl
2 "
27
. 31
.33
.21
L
3
34
2
ISSIiJK FACTORS
OT2
.35
.31
.87
HOG
5.93
lit. 61
ft. 60
(GM/M1LE
HCO
2.09
16.83
9.82
)
0
4
0
MC
.60
.67
.24
ALL MCDtS
1.81
2C.52
2.53
CJL. YLAR: 19H9
kEClCN: 49-STATt
NOM-MLIh hC:
EXHAUST CC:
LXHAUbT
1 .35
12.9fc
^n • N n IYHt
/fc-MK i^A^1,, - . r
C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/3C.C
COMPOSITE EMISSION
Ll^Tl LDT2
2.13 3.0^
24.75 31.47
2.14 2.71
LUV LDT1
^-aC^/0. 058/0. 058/0.0*6/0. 031/0. OOb
MPH (30. G) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACTLKS (Gf'/MlLE)
HOG HCU MC ALL HCDES
Ij.b3 2.02 0.65 1.70
Grt.Bb 16. 7S 4.15 19.11
ti.2fc fc.52 0.21 2.43
CAL. YLAK: 1990
T „ ,. ,
!£MPS 6D.c(F)
J( . 0:30. 0/30.
G/3'J.C
LIU1 LDT2
0. bC^/C.G-id/C. 058/0. G45/0. 03 1/0. 005
MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 2C.6
LCV
MiN-ME Hi hC: 1.30
EXHAUST CO: 12.33
EXHAUSI NOX: 1.36
CUMPgSITL EHISlilUK
LLT1 Ll;T2
1.11 2.80
22.66 29.03
2. Ob 2.61
FACTLKS (GK/M1LE)
HLC HCO
'..27 1.96
Ho.OC 16.77
H.Oi 7.4S
MC
ALL MCDES
1.62
3.77 18. C7
0.2G 2.36
.
CAL. YIAK: 19S1
LOTl LOT2 HUG HLD
'AS , -, - v/«80.>/C.O->fc/C.058/C.C4b/O.C31/
. 0/30. o/JO.G HPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
NuK-MEil HC :
LLV
1.2V
CLiMPJSITE LMSS1UN
LOTl IDT2
1.33 <;.5«
FACILKi (GM/MlLfc)
HUG hCD MC ALL MLUES
5.0C 1.93 0.44 1.5t
-------
t XHAUZ T CfJ : 11. dl
LXHAUST NbX: 1 .65
CAL. YEAH: 1992
REGILU: 49-STATL
LuV
NUK-MLTh. HC: 1 .24
IXHAUST CO: 11.55
EXHAUit NOX: 1.34
£?.'M
TEMP: 6
3C.O:30
CUMPUS
LDTI
1. 13
19.55
2. )2
1 2t . fi 1
2.51
VEFi. TYPE
.0/30. J/3G.G
I IE Eh ISblOK
LDT2
2.37
24.83
2.44
* it&2
: LOV ^
MPH (JG!
FACTOKS
hLG
44.7fc
7l6c
J6.7',- 3.t>0
6.63 G.19
LDTI LDT2 HDG
.0) '20.6/*27r
(GM/M1LE)
HCD MC
1.9C 0.3*3
16.73 3.27
6.05 C.lfc
J 7.2
LUV
1.21
11.11
1,84
VEh. TYPE:
1EHP: 60.0(F)
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EKISS10N
LOT1 LDT2
1.58 2. Ob
17.76 21.91
2.03 2.35
LOV LuTl LOT2 HDG HDD PC
U.803/C. 058/0. 058/0 .045/0.03 1/0 .OOb
MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACTL'hi (GK/MiLE)
HDG HCD MC
<*.42 1.87 0.35
91.06 16.72 3.16
7.55 5.3C O.lb
ALL MECES
1.44
15. L9
2.24
CAL. YLAR:
KtGlLiN: 49-STATL
UUh-MLTI: HC:
LXhAUSF CC:
fcXhAUST N0> ;
LDV
1 .?(
ll.Ci>
1.64
VEH. TYPE
TEMP: 60.GCF)
3G. 0:30. 0/30. 0/3C.O
CUMPdSITE EK1SSIUN
LOT1 LDT2
1.53 1.91
16.99 2C.54
2.04 £.32
LOV LOT1 LDT2 HDG HDD FC
0.8C3/C. 058/0. 058/C. 045/0. 031/0. 00r>
MPH (30. 0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACTLkL (GK/M1LE)
hDG HOD MC
4.2fc . l.Bt C.31
•*..). 30 * 16.71 3.05
7.53 5. If 0.18
ALL MEUEb
1.4^
i5.t4
2.23
CAL. YLAK:
KtGUiN: 49-STATt
Mtlh hC:
LXHAUST LO:
tXliAUST NilX:
LCV
1.20
11. Ot
I.d4
VEH. TYPE
1LMP: 60.CCF)
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EHJSL1UK
LDTI LOT2
1.53 1.91
16.99 2C.54
2. OH 2.2.:
LDV LDTI LOT2 HCG HDD HC
vJ.U03/C.O'je/C. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
MPh (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACTLKi, (GK/H1LE)
HLG ' hCD MC
4.2t 1.86 0.31
VJ.30 16.71 3.05
7.53 5.1h C.U>
ALL MCDLS
1.42
15. £4
2.23
CAL. YEAH:
REGION: ^
W»Jh-Ht ft- hC:
LXhAtSF Ld:
LLV
1 ,2t
VLb. TYPfc
1EMP: t.O.C(F)
3t .0:30.0/30.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EMSSION
LUT1 LDT2
1.53 1.91
16.99 21-.54
LUV LJI1 LOT2 HLG HDD ft
C.tiC'j/C.")5t3/t. 056/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
MPh (30. u) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACFOKS (OH/MILE)
HOG HCD MC
4.2t 1.86 0.31
90.30 16.71 3.05
ALL MLUES
1.42
15. t4
-------
o
ui
1 AHAU$ r Mf.A : 1 . ."t,
CAL. YtAM 199ri
kLG.lUh: 49-STATE
LUV
NUN-MI Th HC: 1.2C
EXHAUST CO: 11.05
EXHAUST NUX: 1.84
CAL. YLAK: 1999
KEGILK: 49-STATE
LUV
NUN-MLTH HC: 1.20
EXHAUST CL: 11.05
EXHAUST NUX: 1.34
CAL. YlAk: i9dU
REGION: CALIF.
LDV
NON-MLTH HC: 4.01
EXHAUST C(j: 29.16
EXHAUST NUX: 2.52
CAL. YLAk: 19nl
REGION: CALIF.
LUV
NOh-MhTh HC: 3.42
EXHAUSI CC: 25.65
EXHAUST NOX: 2. 30
CAL. YLAk: 1982
KEGIUN: CALIF.
LUV
NfH.-MLfh HC: 2.9C
EAHAUSf CC: 22.47
EXHAUST NGX: 2.14
CAL. YIAK: I9b3
REGILN: CALIF.
LDV
'JLiN-Ml Th HC: 2.4t
EXHAUSI CL : 19.81
EXHAUST N(JX: 2.02
2. 34 s.3S l.^>3 'i.l*! C.Jtt 2.^3
VEh. IVI't: LUV LOJJ LDT2 HOG HOli PC
3C. 0:30. 6/30. J/3u.O MPh (30.0) *20.6/ *27 .3/ *20 .6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACJliKS (GM/M1LE)
LUT1 LUT2 HDG HCD KC ALL MEDES
1.53 1.91 4.26 1.86 0.31 1.42
16.99 2C.54 90. 3C 16.71 3.05 15.fcl
2.04 2.32 7.53 5. It C.ld 2.23
VEh. TYPE: LOV LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 6).0(F) U. 803/0.058/0. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPh (30. 0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 2C.6
CUMPUS1TE EhlSSlUN EACTLKS (CM/MILE)
LOTl LDT2 HOG HCD HC ALL HLLES
1.53 1.91 4.26 1.86 0.31 1.42
16.99 20.54 90.30 16.71 3.05 15. t4
2.04 2.32 V.53 5.1fc C.lti 2.23
VEH. TYPE: LUV LOTl LDT2 HbG HCO PC
TEMP: 6D.C(F) C.80J/C.O-:>e/C.058/C.C45/0. 031/0. 005
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
CUMPQSIIE EMSS1UN FACTLlkS (GM/M1LE)
LDT1 LDT2 HOG HCD MC ALL MLDES
4.70 7.46 1C. 75 2.95 5.66 4.53
42.24 52.62 189.00 17.52 22.54 38.12
2.80 4.71 9.84 16.71 0.26 3.42
VEH. TYPE: LUV LDT1 LOT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) 0 .803/C .058/C .05B/C .04 5/O.C3 1/0 .005
3C. 0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MM. (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
LUMPQSITE EHISS1UN FACTORS (GM/MILE)
LDT1 LOT2 HLb HCD HC ALL MLDES
4.10 < .60 9.47 2.93 5.00 3. SI
38.83 5C.27 191.83 17. 2t 19. b2 35. C3
2.66 4.27 -i.4C 16.16 0.36 3.18
VEh. TYPE: LUV LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) u.UOJ/C. 058/0. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPh (30. C) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
CUMP.1SITE EMSS1UN FACTCkS (GK/M1LE)
LDT1 LDT2 HDG HCD HC ALL MCUES
3.62 5.86 b.36 2.92 4.1ti 3.36
35.19 47.24 193.34 17.12 18. C3 ^2.14
2.54 3.8*3 9.00 15.67 C.44 2. So
VEH. TYPE: LUV LDT1 LDT2 HDG HL-D PC
TEMP: 6J.UF) lj.b03/C.05e/C.05e/C.C'45/C>. 031/0. 005
3(,.C: 30. 0/30. 0/30. C MPh (3C.C) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20. t
tUMPQSITE CHSS1LN FACTUKS (GK/M1LE)
LDT1 LUT2 HOG HCD MC ALL MCOES
3.13 5.17 V.34 ?.01 3.07 2.E9
32. DB 43.93 ld'j.59 17.01 15. P4 29. 2b
2.42 3.50 £-.64 15.26 C.4fc 2.E3
-------
CAL. YLAI--S J9«4
ktCICN: CALIF.
LUV
KLH HC: 2.11
EXHAUST CO: 17.79
EXHAUST NDX: 1.93
Vfch.
ILHPi 63.0(FJ
3G.O:ja.O/30.0/JC.O
COMPOSITE EfclS^llifc
LDTl LIJT2 hOG
2.82 *.5.: 6.4c
29.21 H..37 170. 3&
2.30 3.20 b.37
LDV LOU
.tiuJ/J.U
(30.0)
LDT2 hDG hDU fL
.O^O/O.O^e>/0. 031/0. 005
20. 6/ 27. 3/ 2C.6
FACTLKS (GK/MILE)
HCt)
2.61
16.9^
l<».9fc
MC
2.1b
12.00
0.51
ALL MCUES
2.50
26.57
2.71
CAL. YLAk: 19b5
kEGILiU: CALIF.
LUV
NUN-METH HC: 1,8t
EXHAUST CD: 16.31
EXHAUST NOX: 1.86
vEh. TYPE
TEI1P: 60.C(FJ
3C. 0:30.0/30.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EtlSSUIN
LOTl LCT2
2.52 3.96
26.51 37. 2a
2.21 *.97
LDV Lim LDT2 HIJG HDD PC
0.803/C.OSe/C.058/C.O<»b/0.031/0.00*j
MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
FACfOKb
HLG
5.83
. QB
7.99
(Gr'./MILE)
HDD
2.43
16.8ti
13.79
MC ALL MCOES
1.53 2.21
9.15 2A. 3<»
0.47 2.56
H
b
CAL. YEAk: 19B6
RECIL.IM: CALIF.
VEh. TYPE
TEMP: 60.0(F)
3C. 0:30.0/30.0/30.0
LUV
LDTI LDT2 HDG
HDD
^c
0.a03/C.05e/C.058/C. 04 5/0. 031/0. 00
MPH (30.0)
20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
NUN-METh
EXHAUST
EXHAUST
HC:
CO:
NOX:
CAL. YEAk:
REGION: CAL
NGN- ML Th he:
EXHAUST CC:
EXHAUST NOX:
LDV
1 .66
15.19
1.82
1987
IF.
LDV
1,52
14.39
1.7b
COMPOSI
LDTl
2.28
24.34
2.13
TEMP: 60
3C.C:30.
COMPOS I
LUT1
2.39
22.45
2.36
TE
EMSS1UN
LOli!
3.4U
34.35
2.60
VEH. TYPE
• C(F)
0/30.0/30.0
IE EMISSION
LUT2
3.07
31.53
2,67
FACIliRS
HDG
5.36
13-., 77
7.60
: LUV
iJ.dO'i/C
MPh (30.
FACTORS
HDG
4.97
U'8.64
7.30
(GM/M1
HCD
2.27
16.84
11.92
LDTl
.056/C
0)
(GK/MI
HCD
2.16
U.BO
10. 2C
LE)
MC
1.12
7.13
0.35
LDT2 HDG
.050/C.04
20. 6/ 27
LE)
MC
U.65
5.61
C.27
ALL MCDE
1.9b
22.45
2.46
S
HDD fC
5/0.031/0.005
.3/ 20.6
ALL MEDES
1.62
21. Ci
2.35
CAL. Yl-AK: 19b6
REG1LN: CALIF.
VEh. TYPE
TtMPl 60.C(F)
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/3C.O
LDV LOTl LDT2 HDG HDD MC
C.UOJ/C. 058/0. 05B/C. 045/0. 031/0.005
MPH (3C.O) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
UuN-METh hC:
EXHAUST CC:
EXHAUST NliX:
LDV
nl7t
1,77
COMPOSITE
LLT1
1.94
20.92
2.H
EMSS
LUT2
i!.7H
29.0JJ
i.57
ION FACTC'KS
hDb
4.74
11V.21
7.1 2
(GK/M1LE)
iiCD
2.0fc
16.77
9.7C
MC
0.69
5.01
0.22
ALL MECES
1.70
19.65
2.27
CAL. YLAK: 1909
kEGILlit CALIF.
NUK-METh HC:
t'XHAUST CL:
EXHAUSI NUX:
LLv
1 .36
13.31
l.?t
VEh. TYPE
UHP: 6J.C(F)
30. 3:33. 3/3J, 0/30. C
COMPOSITE EMSSllJh FACTtjrL
LDTl 1012 hTG
1.63 ?.50 4.^)7
19.75 27.02 111.13
!.')& I.5i 7.00
LOV LUT1 LOT2 HDG HDD PC
u.aOj/0. 056/0. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
MPH (30. 0) 2o,6/ i'7.3/ 2C.6
(CM/MILE)
HCD
2.0C
16.75
7.69
MC
C.5t
4.41
0.19
ALL MCOfcS
1.62
16.55
2.22
-------
a
CAL. YIAKS 1990
KEG.1CN: CALIF.
LCV
NOK-MLTI- HC: 1.31
EXHAUST CO: 13.32
EXHAUST NOX: 1.75
CAL. YEAR: 1991
KLGIOU: CALIF.
LOV
KON-MLTh HC: 1.2fc
EXHAUST CO: 12.80
EXHAUST NUX: 1.74
CAL. YLAK: 1992
REGION: CALIF.
LOV
NON-METh HC : 1.26
EXHAUST CO: 12.61
EAHAUST NOX: 1.74
CAL. YfeAkJ 1993
REGlUj: CALIF.
LLV
hUK-P,fcTH HC: 1.2**
EXHAUST CO: 12.44
EXHAUSI NLX: 1.74
CAL. YEAR: 1994
kEGHIN: CALIF.
LGV
NUK-Mtlh HC: 1.2?
EXHAUST CL: 12. 3C
EXHAUST NOX: 1.74
CAL. YLAh: 1995
KLGILN: CALIF.
Lt V
NUI«-MLIh HC: 1.21
EXHAUSI CO: 12. 2b
EXHAUST MiX: 1.74
JLMPl t>').C(F) C'.6lCj/C.O-;fi/O.Oi>fl/O.C4t/O.C31/0.005
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ P/.3/ 26.6
COMP3SIlt EMSS10N FACTGhS (GM/MILE)
LOT1 LOT/ hLG HCD HC ALL MCOtS
1.72 2.39 4.4C, 1.95 C.47 1.65
18.89 25. U' 105.07 16.73 3.9B 18. 2«
1.92 2.46 fc.95 6.8fc C.lfc 2.1t
VEH. TYPE: LOV LUU LOT2 HOG HOD PC
TEMP: 6D.O(F) 0.d03/C.058/C.056/0. 045/0. 031/0.005
3C. 0:30.0/33.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. j/ 2C.t
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTCivS (GM/MILE)
LOT1 LOT2 HOG HCO KC ALL MCDES
1.63 2.2C s.26 1.92 0.41 1.50
17.94 23.51 100.64 16.72 3.65 17.75
1.91 2.43 6.97 6.21 C.17 2.1c
VEH. TYPE: LOV LOT1 LOT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) ti.80j/C.058/C. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. u05
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/2J.O MPh (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTOkS (GM/M1LC)
LUT1 LPT2 HOG HCD MC ALL MCOES
1.54 2.04 4.13 1.9C C.38 1.46
17.11 22.33 97.23 16.71 3.37 17.32
1.90 2.40 6.99 5.75 C.17 2.14
VEH. TYPE: LDV LOT1 LDT2 HDG hDU PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) J.«03/C. 058/0. 05B/0. 045/0. 031/0, 005
3C.O:30.0/30.0/3C.C HPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTOKS (CM/MILE)
LOT! LDT2 HOG HCD HC ALL MLOES
1.47 1.89 4.00 1.8fc 0.37 1.43
16.33 21.01 94.80 16.71 3.29 16. $5
1.90 2.37 7.04 5.44 0.17 2.1J
VEH. TYPE: LDV LDT1 LOT2 HCG HDD PL
TEMP: 63.0(F) D.8C3/C. 058/0. 056/C.C45/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 0:30.0/33.0/30.0 MPH (3o.O) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EP1SS10K FACTL'KS (GK/M1LE)
LOT1 LDTi: »
-------
CAL. YLAki 1916
kEGlUNi CALIF.
LUV
NUN-HE TH HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CD: 12.2H
EXHAUSI m*X: 1.74
CAL. YLAK: 1997
REGIUN: CALIF.
LDV
NJK-MEIh HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CO: 12,20
EXHAUST NUX: 1.74
CAL, YtAk: 1996
REGILN: CALIF.
LDV
NUN-METH HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CL: 12.2E
EXHAUST NUX: 1.74
•
? CAL. YEAH: 1999
o° REGIUN: CALIF.
LOV
NUN-MET H HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CU: 12. 2H
EXHAUST MLX: 1.74
CAL. YEAf : 1-JnO
REGIUN: HI-ALT.
LDV
NON-MEH, HC: 5.22
tXHAUST CO: 54. 1C
EXHAUSI NUX: 2.47
CAL. YEAR: 19M1
REGIUN: HI-ALT.
LUV
NUN-HLIH HC: 4.40
EXHAUST CC: 46.41
EXHAUST NUX: 2.3C
CAL. YIAK: 19U2
3C. O:3O.6/30. J/JiO.L
COMPOSITc tMSSJUK
LDT1 LUT2
1.36 1.63
15.09 lt.6«J
1.>1 2.34
VEH. TYPE
1EMP: 60.C(F)
3C. 0:10.0/30.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EMSMUN
LDTl LDT2
1.36 1.63
15.19 16.69
1.91 2.34
VEH. TYPE
TEMP: 6G.O(F)
3C.C:30.0/30.0/3C.O
COMPOSITE EMSSIUN
LOT! LDT2
1.16 1.63
15.09 16.69
1.91 2.34
VEH. TYPE
TEMP: dJ.O(F)
30.0:30.0/33.0/30.0
COMPOSITE EMSSIUN
LOTl LOTl
1.36 1.63
15.09 H.69
1.91 i.34
VEH. TYPE
TLMPs 60.C(F)
3C.O: JO.O/30.0/3C.C
CUMP'JSITE EMISSIUN
LDTl LDT2
6.26 1C. 04
63.36 91.66
2.19 3.77
VCh. TYPE
TEMP: 60.c8.Sb
7.U 11. 4t 0.27 2.€tJ
: LUV LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD PC
0. 80 3/0. 058/0. 058/0. 04 5/0. 03 1 /C . 005
-------
*.Li>Jur*: fii-ALf.
LUV
NON-MET h HC: 3.6«;
EXHAUST CL: 39. 4G
EXHAUST NtJX: 2.14
CAL. YEAk: 19H3
KECILN: HI-ALT.
LUV
NGN-MET h HC: 3.10
EXHAUST tC: 33.26
EXHAUST NOX : 2.03
CAL. YIAK: I9ti4
KLGILU: Hl-ALf.
LDV
NUN-MET h HC: 2.61
EXHAUSf CO: 28.06
EXHAUST NCX: 1.95
H CAL. YEAk: 19b5
b ktGION: HI-ALT.
i
•a
LLV
NUN-MET H HC: 2.2i
EXHAUST CO: 23.90
EXHAUST NuX: 1.90
CAL. YEAk: 19d6
KEGIUN: HI-ALT.
LLV
UUN-HLTH HC: 1.93
EXHAUST CC: 23,57
EXHAUST NUX: 1,87
CAL. YlArf: I9b7
kEGILN: HI-ALT.
L3V
NUN-HtTh hC: 1,71
LXhAUST CG: 17.92
EXHAUST NCX: 1.84
JL . VI 3t}. O/ lO.U/^'j .1, Mf'H {ju.Uf tiU.t/ *//.JX £(Jtt
COMPOSITE EM SSI Lift FACTCiKi (GM/MIL£J
LOTl L13T2 hi)G HDD MC ALL MCDtS
5.11 t.lfc 1L.31 4.16 7.07 4.72
59.06 e0.3F 271. ^t 22. 3S 26.21 52. Sb
2.31 3.1'J 7.0fc 11. 3S 0.33 2.70
VEH. TYPE: LOV LOTl LDT2 HUG HOD MC
TEMP: 60.C(F) 0.803/C. 058/0. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C.O:30.0/30.0/3G.O MPH (3C.O) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE HUSSION FACTC'KS (GK/M1LE)
LDT1 LDT2 HOli HCO MC ALL MCDES
4.59 7.35 16.44 3.95 6.G8 4.C7
55.38 74.82 259.97 26.03 23.01 46. Sb
1.98 2.99 7.00 11.35 0.32 2.5d
VEh. TYPE: LDV LDTl LDT2 HOC HDD PC
TEMP: 60.0(F) U.8G3/C. 058/0. 058/C. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTbKS (CM/MILE)
LDTl LOT2 HDG hCD MC ALL MCDES
4.10 t.51 14.43 3.5fc 4.29 3.49
50.62 6E.OO 235.27 26.72 17.51 40.92
2.04 2.87 6.92 10.65 0.25 2.49
VEh. TYPE: LOV LDTl LDT2 HDG MOD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) 0.803/C.058/C.058/C. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 0:30.0/30,0/30.0 MPH (3C.O) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTIJKS (GM/M1LE)
LDTl LDT£ hDG HDD MC ALL MEDES
3.67 5.70 12.44 B.lfc 2.94 3. CO
4?. 77 6C.92 209.44 24.68 12.64 35. t3
2.32 2.72 6.75 3.44 0.21 2.40
V£H. TYPE: LDV LOTl LDT2 HUG HDD hC
TEMP: 6J.C(F) 0.803/0. 068/0. 058/G. 045/0. G31/0. 005
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/JO.O MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20,6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACICkS (CM/MILE)
LOTl LOT2 HOG hCD MC ALL MCDES
3.27 4.97 10.75 2.83 2.C52 2.fcl
4C.78 54. U 184.11 22. 8C 9.60 31. C6
1.94 ?.54 o.5i 6.32 C.19 2.31
VEh. TYPE: LDV LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD I"C
TtMP: 60.0(F) O.U03/0. 058/0. 058/0. C45/0. 031/0. 005
30. 0:30. 0/30. u/Ju.O MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTOKS (GK/M1LF. )
LOTl LOT*! HDG HLD MC ALL MCDES
2.93 4.35 9.3b 2.5h 1.44 2.31
36.59 4E.42 164.49 21.16 7.53 27.41
1.91 i.4^ G.44 7.33 0.18 2.25
CAL. YLAiv:
KLGIC-N: HI-ALT.
VCh. TYPE: LUV LOU LDT2 HDG HDD FC
TEMP: 60.C(F) 0,d03/C.058/0.05b/C.045/0.031/0.U05
3C.0:30.0/30.0/3J.0 MPH (30.0) 20.6/ 27.3/ 20.ft
-------
LUV
NUN-KLTH liC: 1.55
EXHAUST CL: 15. 79
EXHAUST NUX: 1.53
CAL. YLAK: 19H9
*EGIGN: HI-ALT.
•LDV
NUN-MET H hC: 1.44
EXHAUST CO: 14. 2t
fcXHAUSI NuX: 1.8J
CAL, YEAR: 1990
REGION: HI-ALT.
LOV
NQN-MtT> HC: 1.37
EXHAUST CGI 13.24
EXHAUST NUX: 1.62
CAL, YEAR; 1991
HEGIUN: HI-ALT.
LOV
NGN-HE TH HC: 1.31
EXHAUST CU: 12.51
EXHAUST NuX: 1.82
CAL. YIAK: 1992
REGION: HI-ALT.
LOV
NUN-Hf Th HC: 1.27
EXHAUST CG: 11.99
EXHAUST NUX: l.: 1 .&i
CHMPtlSlTE tVJSSlUK FACfiiKS (CM/M1L£)
LOTl LDJi HDG HCU HC ALL HLUES
2.64 3.86 8.34 2.3C J.JO 2.Cfl
32.*i2 43.26 147.61 20.04 6.28 24.37
I.fl6 2.31 6.43 6.66 C.18 2.20
VEH. TYPE: LUV LUT1 LDT2 HOG HDD fC
TEMP: 60.0(F) u. 003/0.358/0.058/0.045/0.031/0.005
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTORS (GK/MILE)
LOTl LDT2 hDG HDD HC ALL MEUES
2.38 3.47 7.53 2.23 C.fi7 LSI
2fi.71 3P.59 133.03 19.14 5.41 21. Sd
1.86 2.2t 6.48 6.12 0.16 2.18
VEH. TYPE: LUV LDT1 LDT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.CJF) 0.d03/C.058/C. 058/0. 045/0. 031/C. 005
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTORS (GK/M1LE)
LDT1 LDT2 HDG HDD MC ALL MCDES
2.16 3. 1H b.91 2.11 0.68 1.79
25.71 34.93 122.01 16. 4C 4.76 20.23
1.36 2.23 b.54 5.66 0.19 2.17
VEh. TYPE: LOV LDT1 LDT2 HDG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) U.UOJ/C.058/C.058/C. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 3:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACfLkS (GH/M1LE)
LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD MC ALL MCDES
1.99 2.89 6.33 2.03 0.56 l.£9
23.26 31.61 113.88 17.90 4.32 16. S3
l.dB 2.20 6.64 5.36 0.19 2.16
VEh. TYPE: LUV LDT1 LDT2 HDG HOD PC
HMP: 60.C(F) 0.6C3/C. 056/0. 058/0. 045/0. 031/0. 005
30.0:30.0/30.0/30.0 MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMSSION FACTLkS (GK/MILE)
LOTl LDT2 HDG HDD MC ALL MEDES
1.34 2.62 5.U4 1.96 0.45 1.61
21.37 2E.69 107. bb 17.55 3.93 17.94
1.39 2.19 6.75 5.17 0.19 2.16
VEh. TYPE: LUV LIH1 LDT2 HUG HDD PC
TEMP: 60.C(F) o.60J/C.058/C.05e/C. 045/0. C31/O.U05
3C. 0:30. 0/30. 0/30.0 MPh (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTLkS (GM/M1LE)
LOTl LOT2 HDG HDD hC ALL MEDES
1.72 2.40 5.44 1.94 C.42 1.54
19. 9J 2t.26 103.02 17.31 3.60 17.16
1.92 i.ia 6.05 5.03 C.19 2.17
CAL. YEAR: 1994
REGION: HI-ALT.
VEf . TYPE
TEMP: 60.0(F)
3C.0:30.0/33.0/30.0
; LUV LDT1 LDT2 HUG HDD PC
•J. 303/0.056/0.058/0.04 5/0.03 1/0.005
MPh (30.0) 20.6/ 27.3/ 20.6
COMPJSITE EP-ISSIUN
(GM/M1LE)
-------
LLV
hUN-ML TH HCi I .22
EXHAUST CO: 11. 2U
EXHAUST NCX: 1.83
CAL. YIAR: 1995
REGION: HI-ALT.
LUV
NON-MEIH HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CD: 11. U
EXHAUST Ml>: 1.33
CAL. YEAKJ 1996
KEG1UN: HI-ALT.
LOV
NUN-HE Th HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CLi: 11.16
EXHAUST NGX: 1.63
CAL. YEAR: 1997
RL-GIUN: HI-ALT.
LDV
NUN-METH HC: 1.21
EXHAUST CO: 11. lo
EXHAUST NCX: 1.33
CAL. YEAR: 1998
REGILNI HI-ALT.
LDV
NUN-MET H hC: 1.21
EXHAUST CO: 11. lb
EXHAUST NUX: 1.83
CAL. YEAP: 1999
REGION: HI-ALT.
LOV
NUN-MLfh hC: 1.21
EXHAUST CGJ ll.lt
EXHAUST NUX: 1.63
LOT I LUJ.' HOC* HDD MC ALL HLU£S
1.63 2.21 :>.UV 1.91 0.40 1.49
lfi.84 24.42 99.96 l?.lfi 3.72 16. tt
1.95- 2.18 6.96 4.93 0.19 2.lfc
VCh. TYPE: LOV LOT1 LDT2 HDG HOD ^C
TEMP: 6.1. C(F) 0.a03/C. 056/0. Ob8/0»C^5/0. 031/0. COb
3C.OJ30. 0/30. 0/30. C MPH (30.0) 20. 6/ 27. 3/ 20.6
cuMPQsne EMISSION FACTUKS (GM/MILE)
LUTl LDT2 HUG HCO MC ALL MCfcES
1.56 2.02 6 16.21
1.97 2.18 7.05 4.87 0.19 2.18
VEH. TYPE: LOV LDT1 LOT2 HDG HDD HC
TEMP: 6J.O(F) 0.803/C.058/C.058/C. 045/0. 031/0. 005
3C. 0:30.0/30. 0/30.0 MPH (30. C) 20. 6/ 27.3A20.6
COMPOSITE EMISSION FACTORS (GM/MILE)
LUTl IDT2 HDG HDD HC ALL MCGES
1.56 i:.02 4.bO 1.89 C.36 1.46
17. d7 22.50 9o.92 17. Ot 3.56 16.21
1.97 2.1« 7.J5 4.87 C.19 2.18
-------
APP&7DIX I-E
NATIONWIDE AVERAGE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION RATES
FOR TSP, PB, AND SO
X
Calculation of Lead (Pb) Emission Rates
Motor vehicle lead emission rates vary primarily with the lead content of
gasoline, the fraction of lead retained within the exhaust system of the
vehicle/ and its fuel economy. Indirectly, vehicle speed and calendar year
also affect mobile source lead emissions. Emission rates were calculated using
the following equation:
E = PB X FR 7 GM
where: PB = average lead content of gasoline (g/gal), a
function of year, see Table E-i.
FR = fraction of combusted lead that is emitted by
the vehicle, for 30 mph this is 0.23.
GM = average fuel economy (mi/gal), a function of
year, see Table E-20
Numerical results are independent of region and are given by calendar year in
Section 4.20.
Calculation of Particulate (TSP) Emission Rates
Motor vehicle emission rates for particulates are given in EPA's AP-42
publication* for vehicles burning leaded or unleaded gasoline; no listing for
a mixture of such vehicles by calendar year is shown. To obtain the temporal
variation due to changes in lead emission rates, the particulate emission rate
for unleaded gasoline in light duty vehicles (0.05 g/mi exhaust plus 0.20 g/mi
tire wear) was assumed to apply in the year 1999 and additions to this value
*EPA Office of Air Quality planning and Standards, Compilation of Air Pollutant
Emission Factors, Third Edition, Supplements 1-10, Publication No. AP-42,
Research Triangle Park, NC, 1980.
IvE-1
-------
TABLE E-l
POOLED AVERAGE
LEAD CONTENT OF GASOLINE BURNED BY VEHICLE POPULATION*
Lead Content
Year (g/gal)
1974 2.0
1975 1.7
1976 104
1977 1.0
1978 0.80
1979 0.50
1980 0.50
1981 0.50
1982 0.34
1983 0.25
1984 0.19
1985 0.15
1986 0.13
1987 0.11
1988 0.09
1989 0.08
1990 - 1999 0.05
*U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Supplemental Guidelines for Lead
Implementation Plans, EPA-450/2-78-038, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1978,
I.E-2
-------
TABLE E-2
AVERAGE FLEET FUEL ECONOMY*
Calendar
Year
1974-1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981-1982
1983-1984
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-1999
Fuel Economy
(mi/gal)
12.4
13.3
14.0
14,8
15.7
16.8
19.1
21.7
26.2
27.4
*U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, A Report on Automotive Fuel Economy,
Washington, D.C., February, 1974.
15 USC 2002, enacted December 22, 1975.
I.E-3
-------
were made for earlier calendar years to account for the increased lead emissions.
These light-duty vehicle TSP emission rates were combined with heavy-duty
factors given in AP-42. The resulting TSP emission rates are summarized, by
year, in Section 4.20.
Calculation of Sulfur Oxide (SOY) Emission Rates
Motor vehicle emission rates for sulfur oxides are taken from EPA's AP-42
publication and weighted by the assumed percentages of light and heavy-duty
vehicles in the population. The resulting SO emission rate, independent of
region and calendar year, is included in Section 4.20.
I.E-4
-------
APPENDIX I-F: PEERS Methodology1
In 1972, the Water Resources Council published projections of economic
activity for the nation and a number of regional groupings, including states,
water resources regions, and SMSAs. Included were projections of population,
personal income, employment, and earnings of persons by industry,2 for 1980,
1985, 1990, 2000, and 2020. The projections were the joint effort of the
Bureau of Economic Analysis3 (BEA) of the Department of Commerce/ and the
Economics, Statistics & Cooperative Service4 of the United States Department
of Agriculture. The projection program acquired the acronym OBERS, based upon
the former names of the two groups.
The 1972 OBERS projections were based upon the 1967 Series C population
projections of the Census Bureau. Series C assumes high birth rates which,
though somewhat lower than the actual rates of the early 1960s, were still
higher than the rates of the 1960s and early 1970s, Because of the decreasing
trend in population growth rates, in 1974 revised OBERS projections were issued
based on Series E population projections published December, 1972 by Census.
The E Series assumes a population of 263.8 million in 2000, compared to a Series
C population of 306.8 million.
More recently, in October 1977, BEA issued, under contract to the Office
of Water Program Operations, EPA, a set of interim revisions for states only,
incorporating adjustment for the overseas population, and the significant 1970
Census undercount. These revisions are based on Series II Census population
estimates,6 and assume a population in «.000 of 265.8 million,
A quinquennial update of the OBERS projections was issued in 1980,
and was based upon Series II projections of more recent vintage. There are
complete revisions for all regional classifications and industries.
The following discussion is partly based upon information from: U.S,
Water Resources Council, 1971 OBERS Projections, Series E, Vol. 1, Concepts,
Methodology and Summary Data, April 1974.
2
There were 37 OBERS sectors in this report.
Formerly Office of Business Economics,
4
Formerly the Economic Research Service,
Current Population Report P-25, #493.
Current Population Reports P-25, #704, July 1977 estimates 2000 popula-
tion at 260,3 million, without adjustment for 1970 undercount.
I.F-1
-------
included in the 1974 Series E work.
The three sets of projections issued to date may be summarized as
follows:
Name ot Projection
1972 OBERS, Series C
Revised 1972 OBERS, Series E
Interim Revisions
Publication Forecasting 2000
Date Group Population
1972 BEA/USDA 306.8 m
1974 BEA/USDA 263.8 m
October 1977' BEA for EPA 265.8 m
The principal differences between the Series E and Series C projections ares
Series C Series E
Domestic Population (2000)
Total Personal Domestic Income
(2000) million $ 1967
Cropland Harvest "(acres) 2000
306,8 m
2,542,849
309,7 m
263.8 m
2,154,266
271,9 m
These differences are the result of different population growth rate assump-
tions. There are additional differences:
• hours worked per year are projected to decline ,35%
per year in Series E, compared to ,25% in Series C,
• The rate of increase in product per person-hour in the
private economy is 2.9% per year in Series E, compared
to 3.0% in Series C. Even so, this is an exceedingly
optimistic assumption which may not be consistent with
recent trends in productivity growth. In 1978, for
instance, productivity growth in the private economy
was about 0.8% from 1967-1977.
• Income data for 1970 and 1971 and total employment
data for 1970 was included in the Series E work.
This provides an additional historical base upon
which to base extrapolations, and results in changes
in some projections of area activity from the Series
C work,
There are some additional important assumptions underlying the basic OBERS
methodology. Most fundamental is that the projections are based upon long
run trends and ignore cyclical fluctuations such as the 1973-74 recession.
The OBERS analysts assume that nationally a 4 percent unemployment rate will
prevail, though there will be regional disproportionalities — we may regard
this unemployment assumption as potentially quite optimistic.
Conversation with Ken Johnson, BFA, D.C,, 1/17/79.
I.F-2
-------
g
OBERS regional projections are based on the following assumptions:
• trends toward economic area self-sufficiency in local-
service industries will continue
• workers will migrate to areas of perceived economic
opportunity from slow-growth or declining areas
• regional earnings per worker and income per capita
will converge toward the national average
• regional employment/population ratios will move
toward the national ratio.
The primary regional economic unit in the OBERS projection system is the BEA
economic area, of which there are currently 183,9 All other regional projec-
tions, i.e., for states, water resource areas, SMSAs, are based upon divisions
and combinations of portions of these economic areas,
One of the key characteristics of these economic areas is that each is
self-sufficient as to labor market (place of work) and labor supply (place of
residence.). There is minimal commuting access economic area boundaries.
Two types of industries, are considered within each economic area. One
type is the basic, or export, industries which produce goods and services
most of which are exported to other economic areas in return for goods and
services. The second type of industry is termed "residentiary" by the OBERS
group, in that this group produces most of the services and some of the goods
required by households, as well as local business in need of intermediate
products. Residentiary industries include general and convenience retail and
wholesale trade activities and other services difficult to transport and thus
utilized in the vicinity of their production, Economic areas are considered
to be nearly self-sufficient in these residentiary industries.
Economic area projections are carried out in somewhat different fashion
for each of the following four groups:
• basic industries except agriculture and armed forces
• agriculture
• residentiary industries
• armed forces.
The regional distribution of armed forces within the United States is governed
primarily by government decision, rather than economic forces, Assumptions
are made concerning a uniform geographic reduction of these forces in future
years, in some cases with significant effect upon local earnings and employment
8
U.S. Water Resources Council, 1972 OBERS Projections: Regional Economic
Activity in the U.S., Vol. 1, p, 6, April 1974,
9
However, there were only 173 at the time of the 1972 Series E projections.
I.P-3
-------
in those 34 economic areas in which the armed forces is a major factor in the
economic activity.
The magnitude of earnings and employment in residentiary industries is
assumed to be a function of regional total employment or income, and is thus
closely allied to the projections for the basic industries. Agriculture
earnings and employment projections represent only a slight modification of
the basic industry methodology. Thus, because of the relationship of the
basic industries (mining, construction, and manufacturing) to residentiary
sectors, as well as the similarity of the basic industry and agriculture
projection techniques, a discussion of the methodology for the basic indus-
tries is outlined below.
Shift-Share Analysis
Basic industries are projected using a variation of shift-share analysis.
The shift-share technique includes a proportional growth element, as well as
a differential growth element between an economic area and the nation for
each industry or income component, such as earnings. Thus:
E.fc = (E.VE.X) E.X + cx-fc
13 10 10 ij i]
where i and j refer to the ith industry and the jth region; o refers to the
sumation of regions, i.e., the nation; t and x refer to the projected time
point (e.g., 2000) and the base point (e.g., 1971) respectively; and Cx~t
refers to the difference between the national growth rate and the regional
level actually attained by the industry over the same period.
The first term on the right-hand side of the equation assumes that
industry i in region j will have a rate of growth equal to that of all
industry i in the nation (proportional growth). The second right-hand term
(Cj_j) is the shift-share, or regional share, which measures the difference
between the attained level of the left-hand side (Eij), and the proportional
growth of the first term. This term may be either positive or negative,
depending upon whether it represents a regional comparative advantage (the
region is growing faster than the rest of the nation, insofar as the industry
is concerned) or a comparative disadvantage (relatively slower growth).
Numerous approaches have been taken over the past 20 years to the pro-
jection of the Cj_j term. Each of these approaches presumably incorporates the
causal economic ractors associated with the regional share. Nevertheless,
there is yet considerable uncertainty about the causal factors and the
appropriate independent variables, and the OBERS analysts chose a simpler
approach to projecting the shift-share (C..).
For each industry, a curve was fitted to each region's percent of total
national income and employment, respectively, for all available years. This
curve was extended to provide the region's expected percentage of earnings
and employment in a given industry in the various target years, A least
squares regression line fitted to the logarithm of the percentage shares
converted the data to a ratio scale so that the historical growth rate and
I.F-4
-------
the projected rate could be compared by analyzing the comparative slopes of
the historical and extended portion of the trend line.
In addition, considerable expert review was carried out on the projections,
for example to detect discrepancies between the separate earnings or employment
trends, or to reflect additional knowledge about the supply of resources upon
which a particular industry is dependent. Such discrepancies were reconciled,
often by experts in a particular BEA economic area, and the regional percen-
tages were normalized and applied to previously projected national totals to
yield earnings and employment projections for 173 economic areas.
The entire technique assumes that "regional comparative advantage or dis-
advantage for an industry is reflected in the trend of the changing contribu-
tion of a given region to the U.S. total of that industry, and that the
comparative advantage or disadvantage that underlies a region's changing posi-
tion will continue throughout the projected time period, though not necessar-
ily in constant degree, unless altered by some event or force."! The
analysis of the projections by experts attempts to take account of such forces
by modifying the mathematically projected value for a region.
OBERS uses the BEA economic area as its basic economic unit, and creates
other geographic classifications as either aggregations or disaggregations of
these areas. Fortunately, BEA economic areas are defined along county lines.
The result is that the index value for an industry in a county for a given
projection year may be derived by determining the percentage of national
activity in that industry accounted for by the BEA area of which the county
is a part. These county shares may then be aggregated in weighted fashion .
U.S. Water Resources Council, op.cit., p. 25,
I.P-5
-------
APPENDIX I;G: Alternative Formulation of the Baseline Projection
Impact assessment methodologies typically take one of two approaches to
baseline projection:
(1) projections of population and economic activity both with
and without the project are produced. The effects of the
project represent the simple differences in activity be-
tween the two projections,
(2) A projection of economic activity without the project is,
produced. Then the marginal effects of the project are
analyzed. Total future economic activity in the impact
area with the presence of the project is the sum of the
two analyses.
In fact, the first procedure above implies that the marginal effects of the
project have been estimated in order to produce a new baseline projection
with the project.
Alternative Concept
Many projects - even those of substantial size - can be accommodated
within assumed patterns of baseline growth in economic activity, (See
Figure G-l and G-2). This baseline growth projection (B) already presupposes
additional industrial, population, and residential activity for all of which
the jurisdictions in the impact area may have planned accordingly:
Case 1 - Assume that facility A commences operations in the
impact area. The economic activity attributable to the
facility (AZ, Figure G-l) can be accomodated within existing
local and regional growth plans and baseline projecitons (BZ),
Case 2 - Assume that Facility C commences operations in the
impact area (CZ, Figure G-2). The economic activity attribu-
table to this project is so large (CZ) that it cannot be
accommodated within existing plans for baseline growth (BZ),
Serious problems will arise at least from that amount of
activity (CB) in excess of local projections. This case is
represented by the boomtown effects of a large new source in
a small community.
The purpose of the techniques in this manual is to allow the user to
ascertain the effects solely attributable to the project (CZ or AZ), i,e,f
the marginal effects of the project. Given the alternative formulation of
I. G-l
-------
the baseline projection outlined you could evaluate whether these effects
could or could not be accommodated within existing baseline projections and
growth plans, the assumption being that the baseline projection implicitly
accounts for effects issuing from the probable location of facilities similar
to the facility.
This alternative was rejected in writing this manual because it was con-
sidered not acceptable to rely on local planning objectives to determine
whether identified impacts are acceptable. The approach we have taken in
this manual of 1) baseline projection without projection, plus (2) marginal
effects of project explicitly assumes that the baseline projection does not
anticipate the effects of the facility.
I.G-2
-------
-H
•H
•P
U
o
C
O
o
H
b
OJ
B
t+n
TIME
R - Effects of Facility A
B = Assumed Baseline Growth
Figure G-l. Representative Growth Scenarios (Case 1}
-------
B
H
O
•H
4J
U
O
•H
O
O
O
w
TIME
FIGURE G-2. Representative Growth Scenarios (Case 2)
-------
APPENDIX I.H: Explanation of Standard Industrial Classification System
The user manual and Appendix I.E. refer occasionally to two-, three-, and
four-digit SIC industries. This appendix explains the meaning of this reference.
The Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Manual was originally developed
by the Office of Management and Budget "to promote the comparability of statistics
describing various facets of the economy of the nation."* OMB's responsibility
has since been assumed by the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards
in the Department of Commerce.
The SIC system classifies industries in accordance wi-th the composition
and structure of their activity, and covers all economic activities. Periodic-
ally, the SIC manual is revised to reflect the changing industrial composition
of the economy.
The SIC is widely used by researchers who wish to compare economic activity
over tiitte. Similarly, a number of government and private agencies collect and
organize data in a form which corresponds to SIC classifications. The SIC is
structured so that a one-digit division is the least disaggregated, and a four-
digit industry is an extremely specific activity. Consequently, there are
twelve one-digit SIC classes:
• agriculture, forestry and fisheries
* mining
• construction
• manufacturing
• transportation, communications, electric, gas and
sanitary services
• wholesale trade
• finance, insurance, and real estate
» services
• public administration
• nonclassifiable establishments
and hundreds of four-digit industries. Data are generally more widely avail-
able for the less disaggregated classes of. activity, and therefore most
published data are for one-digit SIC divisions and two-digit industries,
*OMB. Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1972,
I.H-3
-------
APPENDIX I.J: Explanation of Figure 7, "Secondary Impacts Assessment
Flowchart"
Figures J-l, J-2, and J-3* provide a progressively more detailed model
of secondary impacts. Figure J-l shows the simplest possible sequence for
tracing the social and environmental effects of economic activity. A facility,
because of its employment demands, induces population growth in the impact area;
increased population may, in turn, require expansion of, local residential
housing, which results in a number of site and infrastructure impacts. Finally,
expansion of residential land use has a number of environmental effects, due
either to the generation of residuals (pollution), or to physical changes to
land, such as impingement on sensitive areas or dislocation of wildlife habitat.
This flow diagram, although simplified, forms the model for the more com-
plete process described in Figures J-2 and J-3. In each of these diagrams, the
following conventions are used in relation to the assessment of secondary
impacts:
o Social and resource impacts are shown as inherent in changes to
local land use. Social impacts include the stress of assimilation
of new populations, the need to change established institutions to
accommodate new social groups, and other largely unquantifiable
impacts that are of greatest significance to the community.
Resource impacts include water, energy, and other infrastructure
requirements of new development, as well as general land alloca-
tion problems, e.g., daes new residential development conflict
with current zoning designations? These resource impacts are
subject to fairly direct quantification and are significant primar-
ily at the community level, although elements such as energy demand
may have more regional significance.
o Environmental impacts are shown as consequent to land reallocation
or development. Once residential development has progressed,
various environmental problems may occur. EPA is a concerned party
in all of these areas (Blocks 7 to 11 of Figure J-3) although other
Federal agencies may have a significant role in assessing these
impacts.
There are some simplifications inherent in this labelling convention. For
example, increased air and water pollution may significantly change the aesthetic
aspects of the local environment, and thus be perceived as a social impact as
well as an environmental impact. Also, sometimes resource impacts and environ-
mental impacts are hard to distinguish: allocation of land has social signifi-
cance to a community, and is thus treated as a resource problem, but part of the
land being allocated may be legally sensitive, resulting in environmental impacts
as well. Overall, however, the labeling conventions represent the principal
categories of impacts.
*Figure J-3 is identical to Figure 7 in Chapter 4, Level C.
I. J-l
-------
Block A: Main Population
Change Sequence
(Residential Based)
New
Source
Local
Population
Change
Residential
Growth
(Social and
Resource
Impacts)
Environmental
Effects
(Pollution and
Other Physical
Impacts from
Residential
Sites)
Block B: Indirect Industrial
Employment Effects
Indirect
Employment
Effects
(Social and Re-
Source Impacts)
Environmental
Effects
(Pollution and
Other Physical
Effects from
Industrial
Sites)
Block C: Service Employment Effects
Service Sector
Growth
(Social and
Resource
Impacts)
-*., Environmental
Effects
(Pollution and
Other Physical
Effects from
Commercial/
Institutional
Sites)
Figure j-2. Comprehensive secondary impacts flowchart.
I.J-3
-------
1.
2.
New Source
Direct
Employment
BLOCK Bi INDIRECT INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
15.
13.
li.
Indirect
Enployment
14.
L.
u a
Exogenous
Factors
Exogenous
Factors
s.
sle*
7.
3.
4.
£l] toesl Pojx»UU^»*i
£«
Qrwth
6.
16.
17.
BLOCK A: MAIN POPULATION CHANGE
SEQUENCE (RESIDENTIAL)
Sito
Air
8.
Water
. 9.
Noise
10.
Pesti-
cides
• Social, economic; and resource-related impact areasi These are generally of
primary concern to communities and states.
figure J- 3. secoHMur IMPACTS EVALUATION FLOM CHART.
I.J-4
-------
Figure J-l covers only the residentially-related secondary impacts of
indirect and service employment induced by a facility. Figure J-2 contains
additional detail for these two elements.
Indirect industrial employment (Block B) adds some social and resource
impacts associated with the creation in the impact area of other facilities
which supply inputs to or purchase materials from the facility. Some environ-
mental impacts may be associated with the pollution and other physical effects
at the sites of these facilities. However, the impacts of indirect industrial
employment are primarily traced through the main population change sequence
shown in Figure J-l. The environmental effects associated with the indirect
industrial employment are considered in the user manual only in the case of a
known colocating industry.
Service employment (Block C) can also affect local population levels, and
thus these environmental impacts should be handled through the main population
change sequence of Figure J-l. Additional service employment may translate into
new commercial sites, such as shopping centers, and these would have various
physical impacts of their own. As discussed in the user manual, most of the
environmental impacts of commercial expansion can be either discounted as quali-
tatively insignificant relative to those impacts considered in the main popula-
tion change sequence, or are actually accounted for elsewhere in the impact
assessment process (vehicle air pollution from shopping centers, for instance,
is more easily accounted for by attributing it to a residentially-based auto
trip.)
Figure J-3 shows a detailed version of Figure J-2, and includes some simple
information on the causal sequence of secondary impacts. The main additions
are: (1) the inclusion of employment as the principal intervening variable
between the facility and expected local population growth; (2) the addition of
exogenous factors, such as local prevailing wage rates or employment levels,
that affect the amount of employment supplied by the local population, as
opposed to inmigrants; (3) the addition of various exogenous considerations,
such as availability of developable land, that influence residential growth
following population growth; and (4) the separate identification of site
requirements and infrastructure requirements as intervening variables between
growth in a particular land use sector and eventual physical environmental
impacts, in addition, the categories of physical environmental impacts have
been named. The category of sensitive areas subsumes effects on endangered
species, wildlife habitat, coastal zones, and historic and archaeological
preservation sites.
We have distinguished site requirements from infrastructure requirements
in order to clarify the social and economic consequences of expansion of a par-
ticular land use type, and to make sure that all of the causal links between
expansion of that land use and secondary physical environmental impacts are
considered. In evaluating the site requirements of residential growth, coloca-
tion of industry, or commercial development, it is proper to consider zoning,
relationship to existing development, taxation effects, and other site-specific
factors that are of social or economic significance. It is also essential to
evaluate air pollution (e.g., generation of air pollution from furnaces), water
pollution (e.g., runoff, or septic tank failure), solid waste (disposal of
cleared vegetation, or different solid waste generation rates for different
densities or types of land use), and other physical environmental factors.
I.J-5
-------
In evaluating the infrastructure requirements of land use changes, the
reviewer must consider the cost of providing municipal services (e.g., sewerage,
roads, water, schools, fire protection, police), as well as the environmental
effects associated with various classes of infrastructure (e.g., runoff from
roads, or additional loads on treatment plants for sewered communities.)
The user manual developed in this contract discusses the methodological
issues associated with individual sections of the Figure J-3 flowchart, and
proposes specific analytic procedures for each section. These procedures are
incorporated into a three-level assessment and screening framework which pro-
vides , depending upon the potential for secondary impacts, an increasingly
detailed environmental review.
Figures J-2 and J-3 indicate why secondary impacts are important, and
why the assessment of them is so complex. Residential growth attributable to
a facility can have a fundamental effect on land, use patterns in the community,
leading to unanticipated secondary physical effects. In addition, the new
population associated with this residential growth may exceed the capacity of
available infrastructure, leading again to dramatic physical effects as well
as a reduction in the quality-of-life.
I.J-6
-------
APPENDIX II.A: INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDS
The standards presented in this section are extracted primarily from:
• Appendix A of the Economic/Demographic Assessment
Manual, prepared by Mountain West Research (1), and
• Urban Planning and Design Criteria, by Lee Koppelman
and Joseph DeChiara (11)
The standards in the first source were compiled by the Real Estate Research
Corporation for Argonne National Laboratory^ and for the U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development. We emphasize that these standards are
highly generalized. You should make every effort to determine applicable
state and local standards. The guidelines presented here are relevant
particularly in revealing types of facilities and infrastructure that should
be considered, and in estimating orders of magnitude for adequate service
standards.
The standards presented in the tables consider:
• water supply and treatment
• waste water treatment
• solid waste generation and disposal
• police protection
• fire protection
• health care facilities
• educational facilities
• recreational facilities
• libraries
• commercial facilities
• roads and highways.
II.A-1
-------
For some categories, we have included at least two sets of recommended
standards, which can be used to define a range. In addition, for certain
categories a simple standard is provided, as well as more detailed standards
which correspond to specific dwelling unit densities, or types of establish-
ments, or other characteristics.
Water Supply S Treatment
Surface water generally requires treatment, so treatment capacity is the
limiting factor for water supply. If groundwater is the supply source and
only chlorination or other minimal treatment's practiced, it is the capa-
bility of the source itself which limits water supply.
Table II-l gives average per capita water usage broken down by type of
use. Peak usage is normally assumed to be three times average use. Based
on these consumption figures, the water supply standard is .20 acre-feet per
person per year. If the water comes from a stream or well, 1600 gallons per
day per connection represents adequate stream flow.
Table II-2 provides information on total daily water requirements per
100 acres of residential development, assuming different population densities.
For various types of activity, average water use in gallons per day is shown
in Table II-3.
Water treatment plants should be designed to process 115% of the peak
water usage of the service population. Table II-4 provides information on
the amount and size of pipe for adequate water distribution, assuming differ-
ent housing densities.
(This section is based on data provided by {2), (4), (5), (6), and (11)).
Wastewater Treatment
In small isolated communities and rural areas, wastewater treatment
plants are often unnecessary as individual septic tanks are adequate to
treat water. For such a system to be feasible, the soils must be suitable
and the septic tanks must be properly maintained. When these criteria are
not met, or when the area is densely populated, a central wastewater treat-
ment system should be built. Where land is readily available and inexpensive
in small communities, a secondary lagoon or series of lagoons may be adequate.
An average lagoon size is 10 acres per 1,000 people.
For larger communities, secondary or tertiary treatment may be needed.
Table II-5 displays sewage generation rates for commercial and public estab-
lishments. A capacity of one million GPD is considered minimum for a
secondary or tertiary sewage treatment plant, based on a peak of 168 GPCD.
The minimum number of employees required to operate such a plant in a small
community is 6.5 persons, while standard employment for a plant in a commun-
ity of 30,000 to 100,000 is 4.5 to 16 persons. Table II-6 shows the
necessary length and type of pipe required for various housing types.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), and (7)).
II.A-2
-------
Solid Waste Disposal
Although standards vary, most states require sanitary landfill sites for
all communities. Several communities within a region may share a landfill
site, depending on community size. On the assumptions that 4 to 5 pounds of
waste per capita is generated daily, that the waste is compacted, that
the fill depth is seven feet, and that 2/3 of the site is covered by solid
waste, .21 acres maximum per 1,000 persons is needed each year for sanitary
landfill.
You may wish to calculate solid waste generation on a household basis.
A general assumption about these rates is:
• first adult in household - 6.5 pounds
• succeeding adults - 2.5 pounds each
• children - 1.5 pounds each.
Table II-7 details the vehicle use and employment necessary to collect
solid waste. The increased efficiency of collection vehicles in larger
communities reveals that it may be more practical for residents in smaller
communities to haul their own garbage to the landfill site.
(This section is based on information from (2) and (6)).
Police Protection
The standard number of policemen and patrol cars per 1,000 people vary
with community size. For smaller communities, 1.4 to 3 officers per thousand
is sufficient, while larger communities require a higher ratio. Depending
on the needs of the area and the number of shifts operated, patrol cars may
be allocated to patrolmen ranging from a one-to-one basis to one-to-three
basis.
One central police station is generally adequate for a town with a
population of less than 30,000, while larger towns may require branch
stations. Approximatley 200 square feet of office space is needed for each
patrolman. The need for a central dispatcher arises in towns with a popula-
tion of 5,000 or greater.
(This section is based on information from (2) and (6)).
Fire Protection
The National Board of Fire Underwriters sets specific standards for
communities of 30,000 persons or more. Required fire flow for a community
is computed with detailed information on the site and structural character-
istics of the communities' buildings. A general rule of thumb for fire flow
requirements, however, is presented in Table II-8. The size of each station
should be a minimum of 5,000 square feet and serve an area with a radius of
II.A-3
-------
two to six miles. Two pumpers, a staff car, and an ambulance are basic
equipment for towns with a population of less than 30,000 people. Volunteer
firemen are sufficient for towns of fewer than 10,000 people, provided the
standard of 20 volunteer firemen are available for the operation of each
pumper. For larger communities, two full time firemen per 1,000 dwellings
is appropriate. For major cities, the requirement increases to five firemen
per thousand dwellings.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), (8), and (9)).
Health Care Facilities
A recommended minimum for health care professionals is one doctor and
.5 dentists per 1,000 people. In rural areas, general practioners will be
most common, while specialists will most likely practice at regional
hospitals. The following formulas are used to calculate hospital bed needs:
(1) Current use rate »
Patient days per year * current population
(2) Average bed need per day =
(Current use rate x projected population) * 365
(3) Bed Need -
Average bed need per day * .80 (assumed occupancy rate)
The required space for all services provided in a hospital is shown in
Table I1-9.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), and (9)).
Recreation
Table 11-10 provides standards for a variety of recreational activities
and recreational areas, including information on space, size, and service
radius. Tables 11-11 and 11-12, which rely on a different source, provide
a slightly different estimate of adequacy and service characteristics. The
two sources together define a suitable range for recreation standards.
Maintenance for playgrounds and parks depends largely on the size of the
facilities and the climate. In areas where cold winters render parks inopera-
tive, the maintenance is less than for those parks in year-round use. Table
11-13 shows approximate maintenance needs for communities of various sizes.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), and (11)).
Libraries
A general description of library characteristics is given in Figure II-14,
with standards for number of volumes given in the next figure. The minimum
book stock of any library, as an independent unit, should be 6,000 volumes
II.A-4
-------
regardless of population served.
The Public Library Association approves the standards in Table 11-16
for small libraries. In addition, it is estimated that seating for 20
persons is necessary for libraries serving less than 3,000 people and five
additional seats are required per each successive 1,000 people served. Table
11-17 and Table 11-18 set guidelines for library periodical collections and
operating hours. A minimum of one professional is necessary for each
1,500 persons served, as well as one non-professional for every four profes-
sionals. Parking needs are estimated as one space for every 2 workers and
one space for every 4 seats in rooms of public assembly.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), (10) and (11)).
Schools
Table 11-19 lists pupil generation rates by type of dwelling unit. You
may use these if you have specific information about the typology of new
dwelling units in the impact area.
Tables 11-20 to 11-23 provide data concerning the general requirements
of nursery, elementary, junior high, and senior high schools, respectively.
In smaller communities, some of these requirements, particularly service
radius and minimum pupil size, will have to be relaxed.
A classroom or its equivalent should be available for each teacher in
elementary school. Ninety (90) square feet per pupil is recommended - this
includes all space, including teaching and administrative, library, recrea-
tional areas, etc. Administrative staff size (principals, librarians,
counselors) is dependent on pupil size. The U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services suggests one staff member for every eight teachers.
In small schools, administrative staff may consist only of a principal or
a half-time principal with teaching responsibilities.
Recommended minimum square footage per pupil for secondary schools is
150 square feet. Again, the standards shown are not feasible for smaller
communities.
Secondary schools often provide extensive recreational facilities for
students. In small communities, municipal facilities can be built at the
school so that the town and the school district can share both the costs
and benefits of the facilities. The same ratio of staff to teachers applies
as in elementary schools, with a typical breakdown as shown in Table 11-24.
(This section is based on information from (2), (6), (11) and (12)).
Roads and Highways
Residential growth attributable to the new source may result in a need
for new roads or highways. The general features of these facilities are
-------
provided in Table 11-25, as a guide to the potential impacts of their con-
struction.
(This section is based on information from (11)).
Shopping Centers
The development of a new shopping center entails considerable space
requirements, as outlined in Table 11-26. New residential growth does not
imply shopping center growth, if existing facilities are adequate — the
guidelines in the table can be used to judge this adequacy.
(This section is based on information from (11)).
-------
TABLE II-l
NORMAL WATER CONSUMPTION
Domestic use
Commercial, industrial use
Public use
Miscellaneous use
TOTAL
Average
50 gpd
65 gpd
10 gpd
25 gpd
150 gpd
Normal Range
15
10
5
10
40
- 70 gpd
- 100 gpd
- 20 gpd
- 40 gpd
- 230 gpd
Source: Pair, Geyer, and Okun, Water Supply and Wastewater
Removal, (New York, 1966), as cited in Argonne
National Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting
Employment and Population Changes Accompanying
Energy Development, Phase II. August 1976, p. 48.
-------
TABLE II-2
REQUIRED WATER SUPPLY FOR DOMESTIC USE S FIRE FLOW
Population
Density(1)
(per acre)
Average
Daily
(gpcd)
Water Use:
Acre-Ft.(2)
per 1000
Population
Total Daily Water
Requirements per
100 Acres of
Residential Development
Less than 1 d.u. 300
1 - 2.9 d.u. 225
3 - 4.9 d.u. 190
5-15 d.u. 150
Over 15 d.u. 125
.92
.69
.58
.46
.38
Average Day
Max. Day
1000 gal. Ac.Ft. 1000 gal. Ac.Ft,
(3)
57
171
253
455
950
.18
.53
.78
1.40
2.92
171
513
759
1365
2850
.54
1.59
2.34
4.20
8.76
(1) Assumes 3.8 persons per dwelling unit (d.u.)
(2) One acre-foot equals 325,830 gallons
(3) Equals three times average daily consumption
Source: Joseph DeChiara and Lee Koppelman. Urban Planning and Design
Criteria. 2nd Edition, New York, Van Nostrand & Reinhold, 1975,
II.A^S
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TABLE II-3
AVERAGE WATER USE BY TYPE OF ESTABLISHMENT
Type of Establishments Gallons
_. per Day
Airports (per passenger) 3-5
Apartments, multiple family (per resident) 60
Bathhouses (per bather) 10
Camps:
Construction, semipermanent (per worker) 50
Day with no meals served (per camper) 15
Luxury (per camper) 100-150
Resorts, day and night, with limited plumbing
(per camper) 50
Tourist with central bath and toilet facilities
(per person) 35
Cottages with seasonal occupancy (per resident) 50
Courts, tourist with individual bath units (per person) 5.0
Clubs:
Country (per resident member) 100
Country (per nonresident member present) 25
Dwellings:
Boardinghouses (per boarder) 50
Additional kitchen requirements for nonresident
boarder 10
Luxury (per person) 100-150
Multiple family apartments (per resident) 40
Rooming houses (per resident) 60
Single family (per resident) 50-75
Estates (per resident) 100-150
Hotel with private baths (2 persons per room) 60
Hotels without private baths (per person) 50
Institutions other than hospitals (per person) 75-125
Hospitals (per bed) 250-400
Laundries, self-serviced (gallons per washing;
i.e., per customer) 50
-------
Table II-3 (cont.)
Type of Establishment Gallons
. per day
Livestock (per animal):
Cattle (drinking) 12
Dairy (drinking and servicing) 35
Goat (drinking) 2
Hog (drinking) 4
Horse (drinking) 12
Mule (drinking) 12
Sheep (drinking) 2
Steer (drinking) 12
Motels with bath, toilet, and kitchen facilities
(per bed space) 50
With bed and toilet (per bed space) 40
Parks:
Overnight with flush toilets (per camper) 25
Trailers with individual baths units (per camper) 50
Picnic:
With bath houses, showers, and flush toilets
(per picknicker) 20
With toilet facilities only (gallons per picnicker ) lo
Poultry:
Chickens (per 100) 5-10
Turkeys (per 100) 10-18
Restaurants with toilet facilities (per patron) 7-10
Without toilet facilities (per patron) 21j-3
With bars and cocktail lounge (additional quantity
per patron) 2
Schools:
Boarding (per pupil) 75~100
Day with cafeteria, gymnasiums, and showers (per pupil) 25
Day with cafeteria but no gymnasiums or showers (per pupil) 20
Day without cafeteria, gymnasiums, or showers (per pupil) 15
Service stations (per vehicle) 10
Stores (per toilet room) 400
Swimming pools (per swimmer) 10
II.A-10
-------
TABLE II-3 (cont.)
Type of Establishments Gallons
per day
Theaters:
Drive-in (per car space) 5
Movie (per auditorium seat) 5
Workers:
Construction (per person per'shift) 50
Day (school or offices per person per shift) 15
Source: Environmental ftpal-hh Pyagl-ifna in R«sr!T*faa'hiona1 Arg»aa-f Public. Health
Service, U.S. Department of Health, Education & Welfare.
II.A-11
-------
TABLE II-4
BASIC WATER DISTRIBUTION STANDARDS BY HOUSING TYPE
(per 1,000 Dwelling Units)
47,500' of total pipe
comprised of:
35%
35%
20%
10%
6"
10"
15"
24"
52,000 of total pipe
comprised of:
SF.
Individuals Wells
35%
35%
20%
10%
6"
10"
15"
24"
SF
Individual Wells
Townhouse
23,000' of total
pipe comprised of:
35% - 6"
35% -' 10"
20% - 15"
10% - 24"
Walkups
15,500 of total
pipe comprised of:
35%
35%
20%
10%
8"
12"
15"
24"
Mid-Rise
8,000 of total
pipe comprised of;
35% - 8"
35% - 12"
20% - 15"
10% - 24"
Key: SF,
SF,
SF.
65% conventional single-family at 3 units per acre, 35% single-
family clustered at 5 units per acre. (Overall density - 3.7
units per acre).
90% conventional single family at 3 units per acre, 10% single-
family clustered at 5 units per acre. (Overall density - 3.2
units per acre).
single-family (conventional) at 0.5 units per acre.
single-family (clustered) at 1.0 unit per acre.
TH » Townhouses at 10 units per acre.
WU - Walkups at 15 units per acre.
MR • Mid-rises at 30 units per acre.
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation as cited in: Argonne National
Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population
Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II. August 1376—
prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration,
p. 44.
II.A-12
-------
TABLE II-5
SEWAGE GENERATION RATES FOR
COMMERCIAL AND PUBLIC ESTABLISHMENTS
Hotels
Motels
Restaurants (toilet and kitchen wastes per patron)
Additional for bars and cocktail lounges
Tourist courts with individual bath units
Luxury camps
Camps
Day camps (no meals)
Day schools (with cafeterias, showers)
Boarding schools
Day workers at schools or offices
Hospitals
Other institutions
Factory workers (per shift)
Picnic parks (with bathhouses and showers)
Swimming pools and bathhouses
Drive-in theaters (per car space)
Theaters (per seat)
Places of assembly
Airports (per passenger)
Self-service laundries (per wash)
Stores (per toilet room)
Gallons Per Person
Per Day
50 to 150
50 to 125
7 to 10
2
50 to 120
100 to 150
25 to 40
15
15 to 25
75 to 100
12 to 35*
150 to 250 or more
75 to 125
15 to 35
10
10
5 to 10
5
3 to 10
3 to 5
50
400
10
Hotels
Office buildings
Department stores
Agartment hotels
Gallons Per Day
1,000 sq. ft.
600 to 1,100
100 to 500
100 to 400
200 to 400
Light industry
Hotels, stores, and office buildings
Markets, warehouses, wholesale establishments
High-cost residential
Medium-cost residential
Low-cost residential
Gallons Per Day
Per Acre
14,000
60,000
15,000
7,500
8,000
16,000
Source: Sigurd Grave, Urban Planning Aspects of Water Pollution Control
(Columbia University Press, New York 1969), as cited in Argonne
National Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting Employment and
Population Cnanges Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II,
August 1976, prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development
Administration, p. 49.
-------
TABLE II-6
BASIC SWAGE STANDARDS BY HOUSING TYPE3
(Per 1,000 Dwelling Units)
SF.
SF,
47,500' of total pipe
comprised of:
70% - 8"
20% - 15"
10% - 30"
Townhouse
23,000* of total pipe
comprised of:
70% - 8"
20% - 15"
10% - 30"
52,000*of total pipe
comprised of:
70% - 8"
20% - 15"
10% - 30"
Walkup
13,500' of total pipe
comprised of:
70% - 8"
20% - 15"
10% - 30"
Septic Tank Septic Tank
Mid-Rise
8,000' of total pipe
comprised of:
70% - 8"
20% - 15"
10% - 30"
See Table II"4 for key to symbols.
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation as cited in: Argonne National
Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population
Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II, August 1976,
prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration,
p. 46.
II. AT-14
-------
TABLE II-7
SOLID WASTE SERVICE STANDARDS
Suburb or Fringe
Independent Outlying
Community
Moderate Urban
(30,000 to 100,000)
1 collection vehicle serves
about 3,200 dwelling units:
1,000 units=31% of 1 truck;
1,938 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
NA
H
M
01
Dependent Outlying
Community
NA
Non^Urban
NA
NA = Not Applicable
Small Urban
(10,000 to 30,000)
1 collection vehicles serves
about 3,100 dwelling units:
1,000 units=32% of 1 truck;
2,018 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
1 collection vehicle serves
about 3,050 dwelling units:
1,000 units=33% of 1 truck;
2,040 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
Rural Balance
(less than 10,000)
1 collection vehicle serves
about 3,050 dwelling units:
1,000 units=33% of 1 truck;
2,040 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
1 collection vehicle serves
about 2,900 dwelling units:
1,000 units=35% of 1 truck;
2,148 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
1 collection vehicle serves 1 collection vehicle serves
about 3,050 dwelling units:
1,000 units=33% of 1 truck;
2,040 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
NA
about 2,900 dwelling units:
1,000 units=35% of 1 truck;
2,148 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
1 collection vehicle serves
about 1,800 dwelling units:
1,000 unit=55% of 1 truck;
3,475 man-hours per year per
1,000 dwelling units
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation as cited in: Arqonne National Laboratory, A Framework for
Projecting Employment and Population Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II, August
1976, prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration, p. 53.
-------
Population
1,000
1,500
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
10,000
13,000
17,000
22,000
27,000
33,000
40,000
55,000
75,000
95,000
120,000
150,000
200,000
REQUIRED
gmp
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Over 2,000 population, 12,000
for a second fire,
mgd - millions of
Source: De Chiara
New Yorfc,
TABLE II- 8
I
FIRE FLOW, BY POPULATION
mgd
1.44
1.80
2.16
2.52
2.88
3.24
3.60
4.32
5.04
5.76
6.48
7.20
7.92
8.64
10.08
11.52
12.96
14.40
15.84
17.28
gpm, with 2,
Duration j
hours
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
000 to 8,000 gpm additional
for a 10-hour duration.
gallons per
day.
, Joseph, and Koppelman,
New York:
Van Nostrand
Lee. op.cit.
S Reinhold Co. , 197R.
11. A*-16
-------
TABLE II-9
SPACE CRITERIA FOR HOSPITAL EVALUATION
(In Gross Square Feet per Bed)
Department 100-Beds 200-Beds 300-Beds 400-Beds
1. Nursing Services 362-439 356-432 351-427 355-441
a. Bed Units . 290-350 290-350 290-350 300-370
b. Operating Suite 44- 54 41- 51 39- 49 36- 46
c. Delivery Suite 18- 20 16- 18 14- 16 12- 14
d. Emergency Suite 10- 15 9- 13 8- 12 7- 11
2* Professional Services 60- 81 57- 74 53- 72 49- 67
a. Laboratories 22- 28 21- 27 20- 26 20- 26
b. X-Ray 24- 32 24- 30 22- 28 21- 27
c. Physical Therapy 8- 12 7- 10 8- 12 7-11
d. Pharmacy 6-9 6-8 5-8 4-7
3* SuPPortive Services 164-199 151-183 140-168 130-157
a. Food Service 45- 50 42- 47 39- 44 36- 41
b. Housekeeping 4-7 4-5 3-4 2-3
c. Laundry 15- 17 12- 14 12- 14 11- 13
d. Sterile Supply 10- 13 9- 12 8- 11 7- 10
e. Central Stores 25- 35 25- 35 24- 32 23- 30
f. Employee Facilities 13- 17 12- 15 10- 12 9- 11
g. Shops and Mechanicals 52- 60 47- 55 44- 51 42- 49
4- Administrative Services 60- 70 55- 65 52- 63 48- 59
a. Offices 34- 39 31- 36 30- 36
b. Medical Records 10- 11 10- 11 9- 10
c. Public Space 8- 10 7-9 7-9
d. Volunteers' Space 8- 10 7-9 6-8
TOTAL HOSPITAL 646-789 620-755 598-732
5. Outpatient Suite 0- 40 0- 45 0- 50
Source: Space Criteria for Hospital Evaluation, Hospital Planning Council of
Metropolitan Chicago, Chicago Hospital Planning Council, 1965, as
cited in Argonne National Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting
Employment and Population Changes Accompanying Energy Development,
Phase II, August 1976, prepared for the U.S. Energy Research
Development Administration, p. 59.
-------
A. Standards for Recreational Ai-tivi t i> 'n
Type of Recroat imial Activity
Active Recreation
1. Children's Play Area
(with equipment)
2. Field Play Areas for Vomtg Children
3. Older Children-Adult field Spoils
Activities
4. Tennis, Outdoor Basket In 1 1,
other Outdoor S|wrts
5. Stflnning
6. Major Boating Activities
7: Hiking-Camping-Horseback ftidinq-
Nature Study
6. Golfing
Passive Recreation
I. Picnicking
2. Passive Hater Sports
Fi shlng-Rowi ng-Canno 1 ng
3. Zoos, Arboretums, Botanical cinrrtcns
Other
1. Parking at Recreational Areau
2. Indoor Recreation Centevs
3. Outdoor Theatres, Band SlielJs
B. Standards for Recreation An><»s
Playgrounds
Neighborhood Parks
Playfields
Corammity Parks
District Parks
Regional Parks and Res^rv.-if ionr;
TAIII.R 11-10
STANDARDS FOR RBL'RKATriWAI, AOTlVITTRf
Activity Por Piipiil ,it inn ltii|ni ro,| foi Activity
0.5 ai-»e/ l.ooo pop. ' '"""•
l.S ,•>, res/1 ,001) ,.op. ' •v'rr>!1
1.5 acres/I, OOO pop. IS '"''cs
l.O acres/5, tX» |iotv. •* •1r:1'ea
1 outdoor pool/25.000 r.^K-.i! io,, -,ixU pl,,s «.-»ll,«i fKX.I
2 .11-1 OS
100 acres/50,000 IO" iiri:M i>1") over
10 acres/1. 000 pop. n,,,,- , ,noo ac.cs
I 18-hole co*irsp \^GT
5O.OOO |>op.
4 acres/1, OOO pop. v.n IPH
1 l*ike or (wiqot>n prr '" r p w'~*ror area
25.OOO |X>(..
1 acre/1,000 l«p. |n<1 •1|irns
1 acre/1,000 pop. v'lf ies
1 acre/IO,W>O |»->|i. '"''' i":"'s
1 acre/25, 000 p(nl rlct ink
All ]
-------
TABLE 17-11
MINIMUM RECREATION STANDARDS
Facility
Play lot
Playground
Neighborhood
Park
Playfield
Ages Served
Pre-school
5-14
All ages
Teenage and
Adult
Community Park All ages
Acres of Service
Space Radius
1/8 1 block
3 1/2 mile
2 1/2 mile
City
12 (Community)
30 City
(Community)
One Acre Serves
Total Population of;
800
1,000
800
800
250
A minimum suggested for separate playground serving small communities:
Population Children Number of Acres
2,000 450 3.25
3,000 600 4.0
4,000 800 5.0
5,000 1,000 6.0
per 50,000 persons
25 miles of hiking trails
25 miles of cycling trails
5 miles of bridle trails
Source: National Park and Recreation Association, as cited in Interim Guide
for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Department of Housing s Urban
Development.
-------
TABLE II-12
RECREATION DEMAND FOR SPECIFIC TYPES OF FACILITIES
Specific Activity Average Population Served
Swimming pool 3 percent of population at a given
time with 12 square feet of water
per swimmer
Golf (18-hole) 50,000
Recreation Building
(1-3 acres) 20,000
Tennis courts 1 court per 2,000
Baseball 1 diamond per 6,000
Softball 1 diamond per 3,000
Source: National Park and Recreation Association, as cited in Interim Guide
for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development.
II.A-20
-------
TABLE riV
MAINTENANCE REQUIREMENTS FOR PARKS AND PLAYGROUNDS
Community
Size
10,000 - 30,000
30,000 - 100,000
> 100,000
Full-Time
Workers
(per.thousand/
population)
0,3 - 0,45
.5 - .6
.6 - 1.0
Part-Time-
Workers
(per thousand
population)
2,4
1.5
II,-Ar21
-------
TYPE
AREA
SERVED
POPULATION
SERVED
MISCELLANEOUS
CENTRAL
or
MAIN
Whole City
or
Municipality
No Limit &
Varies
Should be within a block
or two of main business &
shopping area S convenient
to main traffic & trans-
portation arteries.
BRANCH
1 to l«j Miles
Minimum is
from 25,000
' to 55,000
People
Should be easily access-
ible. These requirements
are for cities of 100,000
people or more.
SUB-BRANCH
Detached Areas
&
Smaller Cities
Varies
Frequently not open every
day or housed in a library-
owned building. Can be in
community buildings or
schools or rented quarters.
Source: Koppelman and DeChiara, op. cit.
FIGURE 11^14: Description of Library Characteristics
II.A-22
-------
POPULATION OF LIBRARY AREA
Minimum Maximum
6,000 10,000
10,000 35,000
35,000 100,000
100,000 200,000
200,000 1,000,000
Over 1,000,000
Volumes
per Capita
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.0
' Maximum number of
Volumes
25,000
70,000
175,000
300,000
1,000,000
Source: Koppelmari and De Chiara, op, cit.
FIGURE H-15: General Standards for Libraries
II.A"-23
-------
TABLE TJ-16
GUIDELINES FOR SMALL LIBRARIES
Population Served Size of Book Collection
Under 2,500
2,500 - 4,999
5,000 - 9,999
10,000 - 24,999
25,000 - 49,999
10,000 volumes
10,000 volumes plus 3 books
per capita for population
over" 3,500
15,000 volumes plus 2 books
per capita for population
over 5,000
2,000 volumes plus 2 books
per capita for population
over 10,000
50,000 volumes plus 2 books
per capita for population
over 25,000
Total Floor Space
2,000 square feet
2,500 square feet or
0.7 sq. ft. per capita,
whichever is greater
3,500 square feet or
0.7 sq. ft. per capita,
whichever is greater
7,000 sq. ft. or 0.7 sq.
ft. per capita, whichever
is greater
15,000 square feet or
0.6 sq. ft. per capita,
whichever is greater
Source: Public Library Association. Interim Standard for Small Public
Libraries; Guidelines Toward Achieving the Goals of Public
Library Service.
-------
TABLE 11-17
GUIDELINES FOR PERIODICAL COLLECTIONS
Population Number of Publications Back Files Kept
Less than 5,000. 50-75 1-5 years
5,000 - 9,999 75 - 125 1-10 years
10,000 - 24,999 125 - 200 5-10 years
25,000 - 49,999 200 - 250 5 - 10 years
50,000 or more 250 or more 10 *• 25 years
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation as cited in: Argonne National
Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population
Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II, August 1976.
prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration
p. 76,
II.A-^25
-------
TABLE 11-18 • |
i
STANDARDS FOR LIBRARY OPERATING HOURS I
Population Hours Open
Under 5,000 20 hours per week
5,000 - 9,999 45-50 hours per week
10,000 - 24,999 50 - 68 hours per week
25,000 and over 68 or more per week
Source: Real Estate Research Corporation as cited in: Argonne National
Laboratory, A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population
Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phas? II, August 1976,
prepared for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration,
p. 77.
-------
TABLE 11-19
PUPIL GENERATION RATES BY TYPE OF DWELLING
Bedroom Type
Garden Apartment
One-Bedroom
Two-Bedroom
Townhouses
Two-Bedroom
Three-Bedroom
Four-Bedroom
Highrise
Studio
One-Bedroom
Grade Level
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Kindergarten
Grammar School
High School
Pupil Multiplier
.005
,024
.017
.046
,032
.250
.062
.344
,029
.134
.057
.220
.097
.450
.108
.655
.125
.712
.189
1.026
.000
.000
.000
.000
.006
.006
,000
.012
II.A-27
-------
Table II-19 cont.
Bedroom Type Grade Level Pupil Multiplier
Highrise
Two-Bedroom Kindergarten ,021
Grammar School ,115
High School ,045
,181
Single Family
Three-bedroom Kindergarten .083
Grammar School ,408
High School ,135
.626
Four-Bedroom Kindergarten ,152
Grammar School .969
High School ,172
1.293
Source: Center for Urban Policy Research, Housing Development and Municipal
Costs, Rutgers, N.J.i Rutgers University, 1973.
-------
TABLE 11-20
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR NURSERY SCHOOLS
Assumed Family Size
Assumed Population
Characteristics
Number of Children of
Nursery School Age
Per Family
Age of Children
Served
Size of Nursery School
Population Served
3.5 persons
60 children of Nursery School age
per 1000 persons or 275-300 families
,20 children
Area Required
Accessory Facilities
2*5 to 5 years old
Minimum - 4 classes
(60 children)
Average - 6 classes
(90 children)
Maximum - 8 classes
(120 children)
4 classes - 1000 persons
275-300 families
6 classes - 1500 persons
425-450 families
8 classes - 2000 persons
550-600 families
Radius of Area
Served
Design Features
General Location
Accessory Parking
4 classes - 4000 SF
6 classes - 6000 SF
8 classes - 8000 SF
Playlot for children's
play area with equip-
ment. Play area should
be completely fenced in
from other activities.
1-2 blocks - desirable
1/8 mile - maximum
Nursery School should be
accessible by footpath
from dwelling units
without crossing any
streets. If street must
be crossed it should be
minor street
Near an Elementary School
or Community Center
1 space for each 2
classes _
These figures will vary for most areas. They are based on a full cross-section of the population.
Population figures should be checked for local age distribution and birth trends for any specific
location.
Source: Koppelman and De Chiara, op. cit.
-------
TABLE 11-21
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
Assumed Family Size
Assumed Population
Characteristics
Number of Children of
Elementary School Age
Per Family
Age of Children Served
Size of Elementary
School
Size of Typical Class
Population Served
3.5 persons
175 children of Elementary School
age per 1000 persons or 275-300
families
,54 children
5 thru 11 years
Minimum - 250 pupils
Average - 800 pupils
Maximum - 1200 pupils
30-32 pupils
Minimum school - 1500 persons
Average School - 5000 persons
Maximum school - 7000 persons
Area Required
Accessory
Facilities
Radius of
Area Served
Design Features
General Location
Accessory Parking
Minimum school - 7-8 acres
Average school - 12-14 acres
Maximum school - 16-18 acres
•
Playground completely equipped
for a wide range of activities
Playground area should be
completely screened from
street
1/4 miles - desirable
1/2 mile - maximum
Elementary School should be
accessible by footpath from
dwelling units without
crossing any streets. If
street must be crossed it
should be a minor street
Near center of residential
area, near or adjacent to
other community facilities
One space per class plus
3 spaces
These figures will vary for most areas. They are based on a full cross-section of the population.
Population figures should be checked out for local age distribution and birth trends for any specific
•location.
Source: Koppelman and De Chiara, op. cit.
-------
TABLE 11-22
JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
Assumed Family Size
Assumed Population
Characteristics
Number of Children
of Jr. High School
Age per Family
3.5 persons
Area Required
75 children of Junior High School
age per 1000 persons ©r 275-300 families
.22 children
Age of Children Served 12 to 14 years
Size of Junior High
School
Size of Typical Class
Population Served
Minimum school - 800 pupils
Average school - 1200 pupils
Maximum school - 1600 pupils
30-32 pupils
Minimum school - 10,000 persons
2,750 - 3,000 families
Average school - 16,000 persons
4,500 - 5,000 families
Maximum school - 20,000 persons
5,800 - 6,000 families
Accessory
Facilities
Radius of
Area Served
Design
Features
General
Location
Accessory
Parking
Minimum School - 18-20 acres
Average School - 24-26 acres
Maximum School - 30-32 acres
Playground completely
equipped for a wide range
of game activities
1/2 mile - desirable
3/4 miles - maximum
School should be away from
major arterial streets;
pedestrian walkways from
other areas should be
provided
Located near concentration
of dwelling units or near
center of residential area
One space per classroom
plus six spaces
These figures will vary for most areas. They are based on a full cross-section of the population.
Population figures should be checked for local age distribution and birth trends for any specific
location.
Source: Koppelman and De Chiara, op. cit.
-------
TABLE 11-23
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
Assumed Family Size
Assumed Population
Characteristics
Number of Children of
High School Age Per
Family
Size of High School
Size of Typical Class
Population Served
3.5 persons
75 children of High School age
per 1000 persons or 275 to 300
families
.22 children
Area Required
Age of Children Served 15-18 years
Minimum - 1000 pupils
Average - 1800 pupils
Maximum - 2600 pupils
30-35 pupils
Accessory
Facilities
Radius of
Area Served
Design
Features
Minimum
3,800
Average
6,800
Maximum
9,800
14,000 persons
4,000 families
24,000 persons
7,000 families
34,000 persons
10,000 families
General
Location
Accessory Parking
Minimum - 32-34 acres
Average - 40-42 acres
Maximum - 48-5Q acres
Playground completely equipped
for a wide range of game
activities
3/4 mile - desirable
1 mile - maximum
School should be located
adjacent to a park area.
School should be adequately
screened from noise or objec-
tionable uses
School should be centrally
located for easy access.
Proximity to other community
facilities is advantageous .
1 space per classroom plus
16 spaces
These figures will vary for most areas. They are based on a full cross-section of the population.
Population figures should be checked for local age distribution and birth trends for any specific
location.
Sources Koppelman and De Chiara, op. cit.
-------
TABLE 11-24 '
SECONDARY SCHOOL STAFF
Function Percent of.Staff
Principals and Assistants 37%
Consultants and Supervisors 14%
Librarians 16%
Counselors 21%
Psychological Personnel 4%
Other (e.g. audio-visual) 8%
100%
Source: U.S. Department of Health. Education, and Welfare, National Center
for Educational Statistics, Digest for educational Statistics
(Washington, D.C., 1975) as cited in Argonne National Laboratory,
A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population Changes
Accompanying Energy Development, Phase II, August 1976, prepared
for the U.S. Energy Research Development Administration, pt 77,
11,2^33
-------
SSS_=i Facility
?reewavs
^^
^ssways
M4:ar R=adg
(Mi30r
trials)
^
?*=or.dary Roads
v-ntt>or. \rtarials)
^
^lector
''eets
x
^41 Streets
^
^-
-------
TABLE 11-26
CHARACTERISTICS OF SHOPPING CENTERS
Neighborhood Center*
Community Center*
Regional Center*
-Major function
Sale of convenience goods and
personal services
Some functions of the Neigh-
borhood Center plus sale of
shopping goods (wearing
apparel, appliances, etc.)
Some functions of Community
Center plus sale of general
merchandise, apparel, furni-
ture, etc,
-• -eading tenants
Supermarket and drugstore
Variety store and small
department store
One or more large, major
department stores
Location
Intersection of collector
streets a/a secondary roads
Intersections of major
roads and/or expressways
Intersections of expressways
and/or freeways
of service area
1/2 mile
2 miles
4 miles
population to
s^=cort center
4,000
35,000
150,000
°- Sice area (gross land area)
7
4-8 acres
10-30 acres
40-100 acres and over
Desirable maximum size of
center as percentage of total
area served
1.25%
(1 acre/1,000 pop.)
100%
(0.75 acres/1,000 pop,)
0,50%
(0,67 acres/1,000 pop.)
of gros» floor area
30,000-75,000 sq. ft.
100,000-250,000 sq. ft. 4000,000-1,000,000 sq. ft,
S'-asber of stores and shops
5-20
15-40
40-80
*•• Parking requirements*** Parking ratio: 4 to 1
(Parking area is four times gross floor area of buildingi 400 sq, ft, per parking space)
^_ 200-600 spaces 1,000-3,000 spaces 4,000 and over
group of commercial establishments, planned, developed, owned and managed as a unit, with off-street parking provided
°n the property (in direct ratio to the building area), and related in size (gross floor area) and type of shops to the
N 4-s srea chat the unit serves - generally in an outlying or suburban territory." Definition of the Community Builders
^••SRcil, CLI.
he Community Builders Council, ULI offers the following indicators for types and sizes in Shopping Centers (see Community
solders Handbook, Executive Edition, 1960, page 217).
Average Gross Leasable Area
Ranges in GLA
Usual Minimum Site Area
Minimum Support
50,000 sq. ft.
30,000-100,000 sq. ft.
4 acres
7,500-40,000 people
150,000 sq. ft.
100,000-300,000 sq. ft.
10 acres
40,000 to 150,000 people
400,000 sq. ft.
300,000 to over 1,000,000 sq, ft
30 acres
100,000 people
~he CBC recommends a parking ratio of 3 sq. ft, to 1 square foot of gross floor area be used for planning calculations
°nly. For operations the parking index is more realistic (see Community Builders Handbook, Executive Edition, 1960
Pages 300-305.)
Utc«: George Nez, op.cit.
II.A-35
-------
LIST OF SOURCES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDS
1. Mountain West Research. Economic/Demographic Assessment Manual. November
1977.
2. Argonne National Laboratory. A Framework for Projecting Employment and
Population Changes Accompanying Energy Development, Phase I and Phase II.
August 1976.
3. Real Estate Research Corporation. The Costs of Sprawl, Vol. 1, Literature
Review and Bibliography; Vol. 2, Detailed Cost Analysis. April 1974.
4. THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to
an Oil Shale Industry. Denver: February 1974.
5. Utah Division of Water Resources. A Study of Impacts of the Alton Pipeline
and Warner Valley Power Development on Community Water Systems in Washington
County, Utah. Utah: 1977.
6. Wirth-Berger Associates. Capital Facilities Study—Powder River Basin.
For Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and Development. April 1974.
7. Genge-Call Engineering. "Five County Area Report on Sewage Treatment
Alternatives" unpublished working paper to be included in "Planning for Growth
in Washington County", Part of a series of publications resulting from the
Five County 208 Water Quality Study.
8. National Board of Fire Underwriters. Bulletin #175. March 1959,
9. U.S. Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers. Community Impact Report;
Chief Joseph Dam, Columbia River, Washington. Washington, DC: 1974,
10. Dames & Moore. Technical Support Document: Land Use/Socioeconumics> Willow
Bend Project for Shell Oil Company. December 1978.
11. Koppelman, Lee, and Joseph DeChiara. Urban Planning an^JDesign Criteria.
Second Edition. New York, Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1975.
12. Interim Guide for Environmental Assessment. Prepared for Department of
Housing and Urban Development.
II.Ar-36
-------
APPENDIX II.B: Bibliography #1 - List of Sources Used to Prepare
This Manual
On the following pages is a parti-1 listing of sources reviewed during
this project to prepare the user manual. Other sources are listed after
Appendix II A., "Infrastructure Standards" and Appendix 1C., "Construction
Worker Case Studies." Numerous recommended sources of secondary data are
also listed in Chapters 2 through 4 of this manual, which describes the steps
for evaluating the secondary impacts of facilities.
-------
Argonne National Laboratory. A Framework for Comparative Analysis of Socio-
Economic Impact, Case I. ANL/EES-TM-9, December 1976, for U.S. ERDA.
. A Framework for Detailed Site-Specific Studies of Local Socio-
Economic Impacts from Energy Development. ANL/EES-TM-8, December 1976,
for U.S. ERDA.
. An Approach to Assessing Local Sociocultural Impacts Using Projec-
tions of Population Growth and Composition. ANL/EES-TM-24, August 1977,
for U.S. ERDA.
Bender, Lloyd and George S. Temple, "Integrated Systems Simulation of Local
Community Impacts in the Northern Great Plains," U.S. EPA, EPA-600/9-77-
012, November 1977.
Campbell, Kimberly A. "Case Studies on Energy Impacts, Sweetwater and Uinta
Counties, Wyoming." National Association of Counties.
Dames and Moore. Technical Support Document 7,0, Willow .Bend Project for Shell
Oil Company; Land Use/Socioeconomics. December 1978,
Frendewey, James 0., Jr., David E. Monarchi, and Robert-H,.Taylor. "Evaluation
of the Regional Activities Model (RAM)." Boulder: University of Colorado,
Graduate School of Business Administration. October 15, 1977.
Greene, Marjorie R. and Martha G. Curry-. "The Management of Social and Economic
Impacts Associated with the Construction of Large-scale Projects: Experi-
ences from the Western Coal Development Communities." Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories, June 1977.
Guldberg, Peter H. and Ralph B, D'Agostino. Growth Effects of Major Land Use
Projects (Wastewater Facilities). Volume II: Summary, Predictive Equa-
tions, and Worksheets. For U.S. EPA, Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation,
May 1978, EPA-450/3-78-014b.
Gulley, David A, "Forecasting Community Impacts Due to Mineral Development."
Colorado School of Mines.
Hudson, James Franklin, Demand for Municipal Services; Measuring the Effect
of Service Quality. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 1975,
Civil Engineering Systems Laboratory,
Knapp, Jerry W. and F. Larry Leistritz, "Resource Demands for Energy Develop-
ment in the Yellowstone River Basin." Water Resources Bulletin, June 1978.
Leholm, Arlen, F. Larry Leistritz, and James S. Wieland. "Profile of North
Dakota*a Coal Mine and Electric Power Plant Operating Work Force." Fargo:
North Dakota State University, August 1975.
Leistritz, F. Larry, et.al. "A Model for Projecting Localized Economic, Demo-
graphic, and Fiscal Impacts of Large-Scale Projects," Western Journal of
Agricultural Economics, August 1979,
B.l-2
-------
Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, A Local Impact Model, LA-6665~MS, January
1977.
. Methodology for the Analysis of the Impacts of Electric Power
Production in the West.
A Simulation Model for Boom Town Housing, LA-7324-MS, September
1978.
. Summary Description of the BOOMl Model, LA-6424-MS, September
1976.
. User's Guide to the BOOMl Model, LA-6396-MS, August 1976.
Mountain West Research, Inc. "Construction Worker Profile." Summary Report
for the Old West Regional Commission, December 1975.
Murdock, Steve H,, James S. Wieland, and F, Larry Leistritz, "An Assessment
of the Validity of the Gravity Model for Predicting Community Settlement
Patterns in Rural Energy - Impacted Areas in the West." Land Economics,
4 November 1978.
Murphy/Williams Urban Planning and Housing Consultants. "A Methodology Applied
to Synthetic Fuels." For U.S. DOE, December 1977.
Muschett, F. Douglas. Coal Development in Montana; Economic and Environmental
Impacts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 1977.
The Old West Regional Commission. Socioeconomic Longitudinal Monitoring Project.
• Volume I - Summary, June 1979,
• Volume II - Profile of McLean Countyr North Dakota, April 1977,
• Volume III - Profile of Platte County, Wyoming, April 1977.
• Volume IV - Profile of Wheatland County, Montana, April 1977,
• Volume V - Profile of Kimball County, Nebraska, April 1977.
Pennsylvania Power & Light Company, A Monitoring Study of Community Impacts
for the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Allentown, June 1976,
. A Monitoring Study of Community Impact; An Update/ Allentown,
December 1978.
Singley, John E. "A Comparison of Socioeconomic Impacts of Energy Development
for Eastern and Western Projects," Prepared for Urban Systems Research
and Engineering/ September 21, 1979.
B.l-3
-------
Stenehjem, Erik J. and James E, Metzger. "Socioeconomic Implications of the
National Energy Plan; Comparative Social Costs of Increased Coal Produe<-
tion to 1985." Prepared by Argonne National Laboratory, September 1977.
Summers, Gene. Large Industry in a Rural Area; Demographic, Economic and
Social Impacts. Madison: University of Wisconsin, 31 August 1973.
United States Energy Research and Development Administration. "Models and
Methodologies for Assessing the Impact of Energy Development." Office
of Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation, September 1977,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Draft Environmental Impact Statement,
Ideal Basic Industries: Cement Plant, Theodore Industrial Park, Alabama
and Limestone Quarry, Monroe County, Alabama, Summary Document. Region
IV, 19 May 1978.
• Appendix A - Project Description
• Appendix B - Baseline
• Appendix C - Impacts
• Appendix D - Mitigating Actions
• Appendix E - Alternatives
. Final Environmental Impact Statement, The Pittston Company of New
York for the Construction of a 250,000 Barrel Per Day Oil Refinery and
Marine Terminal - Eastport, Maine. Region I.
• Volume I - Executive Summary
• Volume II - Final Environmental Impact Statement
• Volume III - Supplement to Appendices.
. Environmental Assessment of Construction Grants Projects. Office
of Water Program Operations, EPA-430/9<-79-007, January 1979.
. Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Bleached Kraft Market Pulp
Mill, Near Bon Wier, Texas. Region 6, June 19, 1979,
, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Lower Armstrong Power
Station. Region 3, December 1978,
, Environmental Impact Assessment Guidelines for Selected New
Source Industries. Office of Federal Activities, Washington, October
1975.
United States Water Resources Council, Regjlonal Multipliers; Industry
Specific Gross Output Multipliers for BEA Economic Areas, By the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, January 1977,
B.l-4
-------
University of Wyoming, Black Thunder Project Research Team. Final Environmental
Assessment, Black Thunder Mine Site, October, 1976.
Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Development and Application of a
Methodology for Monitoring Social and Economic Impacts of Demonstration
Projects: Methodology for Longitudinal Socioeconomic Monitoring.
Prepared for U.S. DOE, December 1, 1978, Contract EF-76-C-01-2493.
. Induced Impacts of New Source Industries; Study and EIS Preparation
Manual Development. Report #5: Review of Modeling Literature. Prepared
for U.S. EPA, Office of Federal Activities, September 6, 1979, Contract
8WA-B064,
B.l-S
-------
APPENDIX II.C: Bibliography #2 - Review of Modeling Literature
On the following pages is a list of the project bibliography developed
during an earlier task of this contract. A literature search was used to
identify all past research material on models or methodologies for predicting
the induced (secondary) land use, socioeconomic, and environmental impacts of
industry. The search was directed at both short-term construction and long-
term operating effects. The literature were searched for methods that projected
not only total growth, but spatial patterns of such growth.
We retrieved 637 citations. These were screened for duplication and rele-
vance, and a total of 32 references were reviewed. These promising sources are
listed on the following pages. Our review of each of these sources is summar-
ized in our "Review of Modeling Literature" for the Office of Federal Activities,
EPA, under contract WA B064.
In general, it was found that no comprehensive models for predicting
induced impacts from industries exist. All models that do address a specific
industry are related to energy developments in western boom towns. Where
detailed socioeconomic models are available, the input data requirements are
so large that their use is prohibitively expensive. Elements of socioeconomic,
land use, and environmental impact projection were found scattered throughout
the reports. Thus, for the user manual, it was necessary to integrate these
elements to produce an induced impacts model which is both informative and
scaled to limited agency resources.
B.2-1
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Abt Associates, Inc, Manual for Evaluating Secondary Impacts of Wastewater
Treatment Facilities, EPAr-600/5~78-003, (PB">279-153) , Washington, DC,
February 1978.
Baldwin, T.E. and R. Poetsch. Approach to Assessing Local Sociocultural Impacts
Using Projections of Population Growth, ANL/EES-TM-24(NTIS), August 1977.
Baldwin T.E., et.al. Framework for Detailed Site-Specific Studies of Local
Socio-Economic Impacts from Energy Development, ANL/EES-TM-8(NTTS),
December 1976.
Bascom, S.E., K.G. Cooper, M,P. Howell, A.C. Makrides, and F.T. Rabe. Secondary
Impacts of Transportation.and Wastewater Investments: Research Results.
EPA-600/5-75-013, Washington, DC, 1975.
Bascom, S.E,, et.al. Secondary Impacts of Transportation and Wastewater Invest-
ments; Review and Bibliography, EPA-600/5-75-002, Washington, DC, 1975.
Bender L., and G. Temple. "Integrated Systems Simulation of Local Community
Impacts in the Northern Great Plains," Energy Environment II. EPA-600/
9-77-012, Washington DC, November 1977.
Benesh, F., P. Guldberg, and R, D'Agostino. Growth Effects of Major Land Use
Projects; Volume III - Specification and Causal Analysis of Model. EPA
Publication No. EPA-450/3-76-012a, May 1976.
. Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects; Volume III- Summary,
EPA Publication No. EPA 450/3-76-012c, Research Triangle Park, NC,
September 1976.
Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc. Methodologies for the Analysis of Secondary Air
Quality Impacts of Wastewater Treatment Projects Located in Air Quality
Maintenance Areas, Contract No, 68-01-2851, Prepared for EPA Region II,
New York, NY, March 1976.
EDA. Economic Research Studies of the Economic Development Administration,
PB-265-193/3ST(NTIS), September 1974.
EPA Region IV. Draft BIS - Ideal Basic Industries, 5 volume set. PB-285-583-
SET(NTIS), May 1978.
ERDA. Models and Methodologies for Assessing the Impact of Energy Development,
ERDA-77-9KNTIS) , September 1977,
Ford, A. Summary Description of the BOOM1 Model, LA-6424-MS(NTIS), June 1976.
. User's Guide;to the BOOM1 Model, LA-6396*-MS(NTIS) , August 1976.
Ford A., and H. Lorber. "Methodology for the Analysis of Impacts of Electric
Power Production in the West," Energy/Environment II. EPA-600/9~77-012,
Washington DC, November 1977,
B.2-2
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Frendwey, J.O., et.al. Evaluation of the Regional Activities Model (RAM),
PB-275-256(NTIS). October 1977.
Greene, M.R., and M.G. Curry, Management of Social and Economic Impacts
Associated with __Construction of Large-Scale Projects. BNWL<-RAP^16(NTIS) ,
June 1977.
Guldberg, P. and R. D'Agostino. Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects
(Wastewater Facilities) Volume I; Model Specification and Causal Analysis,
EPA-450/3-78-014b. Research Triangle Park, NC, March 1978.
. Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects (Wastewater Facilities)
Volume II; Summary, Predictive Equations, and Worksheets, EPA-450/3-78-
014b. Research Triangle Park, NC, May 1978.
Gulley, D.A. "Forecasting Community Impacts Due to Mineral Extraction -
Science or Rhetoric," Proceedings of the Council of Economics 105th
Annual Meeting of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and
Petroleum Engineers. New York 1976.
Houstoun, L.O. "Here's What Should Be Done About the Energy-Boom Towns,"
ASPO Planning Magazine, 4_3_{3) : 18. March 1977.
Lucci, M., P. deWitt, C. Mitchell, D, McGaw, and R, Pavone. Handbook for
Evaluation of Secondary Environmental Impacts of Wastewater Treatment
Facilities. Preliminary Draft for U.S. EPA, Municipal Construction
Division, Washington, DC, July 1977.
McKay, M.D. and L.A. Bruckner. Local Impact Model, LA-6665-MS(NTIS), January
1977.
Murphy/Williams Urban Planning and Housing Consultants. A Methodology Applied
to Synthetic Fuels. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington DC, April
1978.
Promise, J. and M. Leiserson. Water Resources Management for Metropolitan
Washington; Analysis of the Joint Interactions of Water and Sewer
Service, Public Policy, and Land Development Patterns in an Expanding
Metropolitan Area (including Appendices), Washington DC, Metropolitan
Washington Council of Governments, 1973.
Real Estate Research Corporation. The Costs of Sprawl - Environmental and
Economic Costs of Alternative Residential Development Patterns at the
Urban Fringe, prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality,
Washington DC, April 1974.
Rink, R. and A. Ford. Simulation Model for Boom Town Housing, LA-7324-MS(NTIS),
September 1978.
Stenehjem, E., et.al. Framework for Comparative Analyses- of Socioeconomic
Impact; Caae I. ANL/EES-TM-9(NTIS), December 1976.
B.2-3
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Summers, G.F. Large Industry in a Rural Area; Demographic, Economic and
Social Impact. University of Wisconsin, August 1973 (NTIS COM-74-10214).
Toman, N., S. Murdock, and T. Hertsgaard. REAP Economic Demographic Model:
Technical Description (Draft). North Dakota State University, Bismarck,
ND, 1978.
Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Interceptor Sewers and Suburban
Sprawl; The Impact of Construction Grants on Residential Land Use,
Volume I; Analysis, and Volume II; Case Studies. Prepared for the
Council on Environmental Quality, Washington DC, May 1978,
. The Growth Shapers - Land Use Impacts of Infrastructure Investments.
Prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality, Washington DC, May 1976.
B-. 2-4
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APPENDIX II.D: Glossary
air pollution: the presence of contaminants in the air, particularly at
concentrations which interfere with health, safety, or comfort.
air quality: a measure of the characteristics of the air, usually derived
from quantitative measurements of the concentrations of specific pollu-
tants .
air quality control region (AQCR): a geographical unit designated by state
agencies as the appropriate unit to implement and monitor control
strategies. AQCRs may cross state boundaries.
algorithm: a procedure or mathematical formulation which specifies a series
of steps to a solution.
ambient: surrounding, e.g., the ambient air.
amortization: to write off an expenditure by prorating it over a fixed period;
the .amortization, period is often equal to the term of the loan used to
finance the expenditure.
aquifer: an underground bed or stratum of earth, gravel, or stone that con-
tains water.
area source: a group of point or line sources that individually do not warrant
a separate accounting, and which are grouped together as an area source.
areawide environmental assessment: prepared by some EPA regional officers, this
document identifies, principally by means of overlays, sensitive features
in a given geographic area.
assessed value: the value of land and improvements. This value is established
for property tax purposes. Assessed value is not necessarily equal to fair
market value.
assessment: the process of forecasting and measuring effects a development project
may have on the social, economic, and physical environment.
attainment: a term used to designate an area in compliance with a primary
national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for a specific, criteria
pollutant.
average household size: the average number of persons per occupied housing
unit.
base map: a map or chart showing the location of important geographic and
economic features. These maps are often used as a base upon which
additional data of a specialized nature are overlaid.
IID-1
-------
baseline: the baseline refers to social, economic, or other activity
which is forecasted to occur in the absence of the project being
reviewed.
basic (economic) activities: activities which produce and distribute goods
and services for export to firms and individuals outside of a defined
economic region.
carrying costs: the cost to finance an expenditure. As used in this manual,
carrying costs include principal plus interest.
central city: 1) a city of 50,000 inhabitants or more which is the core
of an urbanized area; 2) the largest city in an SMSA.
coastal zone: as defined in the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, the term
coastal zone means the coastal waters, and adjacent shorelands, strongly
influenced by each other and in proximity to the shorelines of the
coastal states. A coastal zone includes islands, transitional and inter-
tidal areas, salt marshes, wetlands, and beaches. The zone extends
inward from shorelines only to the extent necessary to control shorelands
the uses of which have a direct and significant impact on the coastal
waters.
coefficient: a number used as a multiplier.
commutershed/commuting radius: the commuting radius is the distance from the
site of the facility or project which defines the area from which people
may commute to work at the site. Commuting radius may be defined either
by distance in miles or by travel time. The commuting area so defined
is tne commutershed. The commuting radius may not be equidistant in all
directions from the site, because of physical or topographical features
or boundaries, and therefore the commutershed is not necessarily symmet-
rical in shape.
comprehensive plan: an official document adopted as a policy guide to deci-
sions about the physical, social, and economic development of a community
or region.
criteria pollutants: airborne pollutants which are addressed under Section
108 of the Clean Air Act. These pollutnats currently include total
suspended particulates, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide,
ozone and hydrocarbons. NAAQS have been established for these pollutants.
default value: in this manual, a default value is a value supplied by us for
a specific variable (such as average household size) in those cases when
you do not wish to calculate a value based upon data for the specific
impact area.
demography: the science of population growth and change.
design life: the period for which equipment or a facility can be expected to
perform adequately.
IID-2
-------
direct: see primary.
discounting: used in capital investment decisions, discounting converts
future revenues or expenditures to their present value, i.e., their
value at the present time. The revenue or expenditure in a future
year is multiplied by the present value of $1 for that year at the
required rate of return; the rate of return is also termed the dis-
count rate.
EA: environmental assessment.
economic base analysis: a modeling technique used to estimate future
economic and population growth. This technique is the basis for
regional income and employment multipliers. Economic base analysis
assumes that any regional economy is divided into basic (export-
oriented) and service (locally-oriented) firms. Growth in service
firms is a function of growth in the basic sector. Growth in the
basic sector is a function of population growth, and national and
regional economic trends.
economic sector: a group of firms, establishments, or enterprises engaged
in similar economic activities. Major economic sectors are agriculture,
forestry, and fishing; minings contruction; manufacturing; transportation,
communications, electric, gas, and sanitary services; wholesale trade;
retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; services; public
administration.
EIS: environmental impact statement, as defined in section 102(2)(C) of the
National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. The Statement is required
to cover 1) the environmental impact of the proposed action, 2) adverse
environmental effects of the project that cannot be avoided, 3) alterna-
tives to the proposed action, 4) the relationship between local short-term
uses of man's environment and the maintenance and enhancement of long-term
productivity, 5) any irreversible and irretrievable commitments of resources
which would be involved in the proposed action.
emissions: the discharge of air contaminants into the atmosphere.
emission factor: an estimate of the rate at which a pollutant is released to
the atmosphere. It is generally expressed as the quantity of pollutants
emitted for some unit measure of polluting activity.
emission standard: the maximum amount of a pollutant legally permitted to be
discharged from a single source.
employment participation rate: a mathematical expression measuring the percen-
tage of a total population that is employed. It may be derived by dividing
total employment by total population or the total civilian labor force.
IID-3
-------
endangered species: any species identified as rare or- endangered by the U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, State Departments of Fish and Game, the
Audubon Society, the National Wildlife Federation, and university depart-
ments of zoology, wildlife management, or biology.
environmental assessment: a concise public document for which EPA is respon-
sible which provides sufficient data and analysis to determine whether
an EIS or a finding of no significant impact is required. Where EPA
determines that an EIS will be prepared, there is no need to prepare a
formal environmental assessment. More generally, an environmental
assessment can refer to any document which forecasts or measures the
impacts of a project upon the environment.
environmental information document: any written analysis prepared by an
applicant or contractor for EPA which describes the environmental impacts
of a proposed action, or which provides any information necessary for EPA
to carry out an environmental review.
evaluation: a determination of the importance of a measured or forecasted
impact. Evaluation often implies a selection among several different
alternatives.
exogenous variable: a variable the value of which is not determined by the
solution of the equations in a mathematical model, i.e., the value of the
variable is determined outside of the model.
FNSI: finding of no significant impact. Previously referred to as a negative
declaration.
gravity model: a representation of any type of interaction which postulates
that the attraction between two areas of activity is a function of a
pertinent variable in one, and that this attraction is inversely related
to the distance between the two areas.
groundwater: the supply of fresh water under the earth's surface in an aquifer
or in soil that forms a natural reservoir.
household: all persons occupying a discrete housing unit.
household formation: the establishment of new households by marriage.
housing unit: a house, apartment, group of rooms, or a single room, which is
occupied, or vacant but intended for occupancy as separate living quarters.
The occupants of a unit must eat and live separately from other persons in
the structure, and must have either direct access to the unit from outside
or through a common hall, or have kitchen facilities for their exclusive
use. Occupied quarters which do not qualify as housing units are classi-
fied as group quarters.
IID-4
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impact area: 1) Level A - the county containing the new facility (the host
county), and any county contiguous to the host county; 2) Level B -
the county containing the new facility (the host county)/ and any other
counties in the facility's commutershed which are expected to contribute
to the facility's labor pool; 3) Le_yel_C - all communities within the
normal daily commuting radius of the site of the new facility.
incidence: the distribution of impacts among groups or individuals.
indirect: see secondary.
induced demand or impact: 1) new economic activity generated as a consequence
of the expansion of other economic activity; 2) any impact caused or
brought on by some other activity or impact.
infrastructure: the basic economic and social installations or facilities of
a community. Examples include roads, sewers and water supply, schools and
public transit systems.
input coefficient: the amount of inputs required froir. each industry to produce
one dollar of output from a given industry.
input-output analysis: a mathematical technique used to describe and predict
transactions among industries in a national or regional economy. A basic
input-output table is shown on the next page — this table portrays the
flow of goods and services throughout the economy, and provides a means
of measuring both the direct and indirect changes in production resulting
from a change in demand.
labor force: that portion of the total population over 16 years old and which
is not retired. The labor force includes employed and unemployed persons.
labor market area: the geographic area within which the majority of employees
engaged in a given economic activity reside. Labor market areas vary by
type of activity; for example, construction workers are typically drawn
from a larger area than factory workers.
land use map: a map which shows dominant land uses by type of activity, such
as residential, commercial/service/retail, manufacturing/warehouse, and
public land.
line source: an emission source which follows a linear configuration, such
as a road, rail line, or runway. Constant emission rates along the line
are not necessarily assumed.
marginal: additional; in economics, 'marginal cost* of a product is the cost
of producing one additional unit of that proudct, and marginal revenue is
the revenue derived from the sale of an additional unit.
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(CHASGfSAGAtnSrCNPl
GNP
•t^m.ili Hi pi»t»«la«Ms. less utsrfas. etc.
US DcpjiliwBl til CMMUI«. Bwuii ti [COMHUC Aiuliu
/ / <*«»" /
/ / «iJ>« /
f / ' f
CHART 11
INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE
H
H
O
cn
PRODUCERS
Q
Lbl
Q
0
•* «_
4J MlJ — *
B s -^
g5 ag
:>•*«'«»'—'
*tncu«ult
UMIH
CoubuduM
Uinululuiia|
llii»|tfUbMI
llitt
FnUMC
Seivices
Oilier
PfiODUCERS
Aflicul
lure
CompenubM «l employees
Ibniflt
Constiuc
boa
Piofillype mount*, net mleiesl ( ufuUI consumption »Uowa
laihreU business Uus
GROSS INPUT
•lUnuUc
luiim
nets
ffMS
pw-
Uboa
*
Tilde
finance
Sendees
Olhei
FINAL DEMAND (GNP)
Personal
consumption
eipendiluies
boss
ptrtile
dontsbc
m>tslmenl
Net eipo/U
Gweinmuil
puithists
GROSS
OUTPUT
MCIMU. t«M UCMU <4 pciuM. UHfaait futUH. M4 tuiiKU luml« Kinuoli. lest ukvtev n
Uesld«ml>a .................
Change in buifneis Inve iKurlt
Nonluiro ...................
Net ei|H>rtg o( (oodt kiid wivlce
Qatit. tiuiclaattol foodauul u-i
Blhlt tir.rt Iwal
II y l
. lotj
Nr.i.4ui kl.
(Jioti n*l)bf.fcl [jwlucl. Idikll ..
line
Wervltti
OrtiM
liivrslmeru
NollieslJtntlU
. .............
Cliutitle 111 builnm Invelilotl
Net ti\Hjtta ol good* uid etivk
l Wilt W
UdVt. lUU
Federal
Him* uuil loc»J
' Uevlitd. * l*ctlirnlnuy
Mid |*uonbi liubut loivc l.i i n 1
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migration: the number of people moving into (immigration) or out of (out-
migration) an area over a specified time period.
mitigation: any technique which minimizes, makes less severe, or moderates
a primary or secondary impact of a facility or project.
model: as used in this manual, a model is a detailed set of relationships,
often set down in mathematical terms, intended as a synthetic represen-
tation ofithe behavior of social, economic, or environmental systems.
A model is used to test hypotheses or to predict the effects of change
in some element of the system.
(employment/income) multiplier: a mathematical technique used to estimate
the impact of a project on a regional economy. The technique is based
on the concepts of economic base analysis. A multiplier provides a
means of estimating the direct and indirect increase in employment or
income resulting from the construction or operation of a facility.
NAAQS: national ambient air quality standards. The prescribed level of
pollutants in the air which cannot legally be exceeded during a specific
time (usually either 24 hours or 3 days) in a defined geographic area.
NAAQS were mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970.
National Register of Historic Places: a listing maintained by the Heritage
Conservation and Recreation Service of architectural, historical, archeo-
logical, and cultural sites of local, state, or national significance.
NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. Section 102 establishes
requirements for and outlines the contents of environmental impact
statements. These statements are to accompany every recommendation or
report on proposals for legislation and other 'major federal actions'
significantly affecting the quality of the human environment.
new source: a new source is any source which is constructed or substantially
modified after the publication of an emission or effluent standard that
applies to that source. All other sources are considered to be 'existing'.
new source determination: a determination by an environmental reviewer that
a facility qualifies as a new source: A new source is defined as "any
source constructed after publication of a standard that applies to that
source". All other sources are considered to be 'existing1.
nominal interest rate: the interest rate charged on a loan, as opposed to the
real interest rate, which is the true rate after adjustment for inflation.
Example: assume a company receives a bank loan at a 20% prime rate, and that
the rate of inflation is 12%. The nominal interest rate is 20%, the real
interest rate is 8% (20% minus 12%).
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nonattainment: a term used to designate an area which is not in compliance
with a primary NAAQS for a specific criteria pollutant.
NSPS: emission or effluent standards set for new sources, i.e., new source
performance standards.
occupancy rate: the number of persons per room, dwelling, or household.
open space: land that is not predominantly occupied by buildings or structures
operation area: the area the boundaries of which enclose the site of the
facility and its associated infrastructures (such as barge landings,
rail sidings, or facilities for self-generation of power).
point source: in air and water pollution, a stationary emitter of large
quantities of a pollutant, generally as a result of industrial activity.
pollutant: any material adversely affecting the natural or man-made environ-
ment. Noise, light, and radiation can also be considered pollutants.
population density: population per unit of land area, often expressed as
either persons or families per acre.
primary impacts or effects: the direct and immediate effects on the social,
economic, and physical environment caused by the construction or opera-
tion of a facility. These effects are experienced in the immediate
vicinity of the project or its related infrastructure. Also known as
direct impacts, in economic terms, a primary impact is the first order
spending for materials or labor related to the construction or operation
of a project.
PSD: prevention of significant deterioration. The PSD regulations, adopted
in the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and also a required part of all
SIPs, divide areas into Classes I, II, and III, Class I having the
cleanest air. PSD regulations specify the maximum allowable increases
in ambient concentrations of pollutants - these increases are termed
PSD increments - for each area, and are designed to prevent a significant
deterioration of air quality.
reserve capacity: capacity included in wastewater treatment plants, water
supply systems, and other infrastructure facilities beyond that needed
to serve current connections. Reserve capacity is, therefore, intended
to accommodate future growth. •
runoff: the water that flows off of the surface of the land in visible surface
streams. Runoff usually refers to the rainfall, melted snow, or irriga-
tion water that flows across the ground surface and eventually returns to
a surface body of water. The runoff often picks up pollutants from the
air or land and carries them to the receiving waters.
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scoping: a process which -determines the scope of issues to be addressed
in an EIS, and which identifies the significant issues related to a
proposed action. See 40 CFR 1500 to 1508, "Regulations for Implement-
ing the Procedural Provisions of NEPA.!'
secondary impacts or effects: 1) in economic terms, the second and successive
rounds of purchases by those firms or individuals which supply the direct
requirements of a facility (see direct impacts). In this context,
secondary impacts are synonymous with multiplier effects, and include
expenditures by households whose jobs or income are traceable to a
facility's direct purchases; 2) as defined in Section 1.2 of this manual,
secondary impacts of a project or facility are indirect or induced
changes in the physical or social environment. Secondary impacts are
triggered by direct (primary) impacts. Secondary impacts occur off-site
from a project or any associated infrastructure (such as barge landings
or rail facilities) which is an essential part of the operation of the
project.
service area: the geographic area served by a particular public facility,
such as a school, library, police station, or park.
service sector: the service sector for the purposes of Step 15, Level C,
includes all retail trade activities (SICs 52-59), and:
o personal services such as laundry services, beauty and barber
shops (SIC 72)
o automotive repair services and garages (SIC 75)
o miscellaneous repair services, such as electrical repair, watch
repair, or furniture repair (SIC 76).
This definition should be used for Step 15. A good land use map will
distinguish retail/commercial/service activities from other activities
in an area. At a minimum, retail activities should be broken out of
this larger category; it may be difficult, however, to break out the
specific services listed above, in which case retail trade activities
can be used as an accurate proxy for the service sector.
SIC: standard industrial classification. All firms in the United States
are classified by a four-digit SIC.
significant: in impact assessment the term refers to the relative importance
of a measured or forecasted impact.
socioeconomic (impacts): refers to social and economic impacts. Social
impacts include effects on community cohesion; the stress of assimilation
of new population; and increased demand for infrastructure such as schools
or hospitals. Economic impacts include direct and indirect employment;
expansion of the service sector; or increases in regional spending.
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soil loss equation: an equation used to determine the amount of soil which
will erode from a given area of land over time under varying conditions
of rainfall, slope, soil type, land use practices, etc.
SMSA: standard metropolitan statistical area. Each SMSA is an integrated
social and economic unit with a large population nucleus. An SMSA is
defined along county lines and must include:
o one city with 50,000 or more inhabitants, or
o' a city with at least 25,000 inhabitants which, together with
contiguous places has a combined population of 50,000.
The largest city in each SMSA is designated as the "central city". In
New England, SMSAs are defined along town and city lines, rather than
county lines. There is no limit to the number of adjacent counties that
can be included in an SMSA, and SMSAs can cross state lines.
state implementation plan (SIP): required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1970. National ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) were established
for six criteria pollutants (see NAAQS). Each state is required to submit
a plan acceptable to EPA which discusses the strategies that will be used
to achieve and maintain these standards in regions where these standards
are or might be exceeded. EPA will provide a plan for those states which
do not develop an acceptable one.
surface water: the streams, lakes, ponds/ and oceans which occur on the surface
of the earth.
208: the Section of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (PL 92-500) that
mandates areawide water quality management plans.
208 plan: a plan for areawide water quality management completed and
implemented by the responsible planning agency ("The 208 Agency").
unemployed person: those persons who did no work, were looking for work, and
were available for work during a given period. Also included are those
who did no work during the period and a) were awaiting to be called back
to work from which they had been laid off, b) were waiting to report to
a new job starting within 30 days, c) were prevented from looking for work
because of temporary illness.
vacancy rate: the ratio between the number of vacant housing units and the
total number of units in an area. The gross vacancy rate counts every
empty unit. The available vacancy rate excludes units off the market,
and seasonal or dilapidated housing.
VMT: vehicle miles traveled. The total number of miles traveled by all
vehicles over a given roadway or on all roadways within a specified area
during a given time period.
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watershed: the region drained by or contributing water to a stream, lake/
or other body of water.
wetlands: land areas characterized by the presence of water at or near the
surface during portions of the year; wetlands are characterized by vege-
tation adapted to wet conditions.
zoning; the demarcation of a city by ordinance into zones and the establish-
ment of regulations to govern the use of the land within the zones.
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REFERENCES FOR GLOSSARY
Alan M. Voorhees and Associates. Notebook 5; Environmental Assessment Reference
Book. Prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation, 1979.
Jonathan S. Lane, et.al. Impact Assessment Guidelines; The Role of the No-Build
Alternative in the Evaluation of Transportation Projects. Prepared for the
National Cooperative Highway Research Program, 1977.
Skidmore, Owings, and Merrill. Guidance Notebooks for the Environmental Assess-
ment of Airport Development Projects. Prepared for the U.S. Department of
Transportation, 1978.
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