SCIENCE IN THE REGION
Science
TO RESULTS
PREDICTING MERCURY LEVELS IN
New England Wildlife through Modeling
S . EPA
SCIENCE AT THE EPA NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL OFFICE
SCIENCE lies at the heart of the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Agency must rely on cutting edge research, accurate
measurements and effective technology to implement its programs to protect the environment and human health. Without sound science and credible data,
EPA can not wisely set environmental and health standards, clean up contaminated sites, measure ambient air and water quality conditions, or identify the new
technologies or practices that will reduce releases to the environment. These fact sheets shore with you some of our EPA New England's laboratory capabilities
and exemplify some of the very best science we do to meet our agency mission.
GOAL:
Data from field sampling indicate that many fish in New England lakes and streams have mercury levels that are
unsafe for human consumption. As a result, all six New England states have issued fish-consurnption advisories, and
have cooperatively developed a Mercury Total Maximum Daily Load plan outlining a strategy for reducing mercury
in fish in New England waterbodies. Data from field sampling also show elevated mercury in many piscivorous
(fish-eating) birds (e.g., loons), which can affect behavior and cause physiological defects, reduced fertility, and
increased rates of mortality. EPA is leading a team of mercury researchers in developing a GIS-based model (Mercury
Geospatial Assessments for the New England Region or "MERGANSER") to identify aquatic ecosystems where fish
and birds and. ultimately, humans (via fish comsumption) are at risk for contamination by mercury.
KEY CONTACTS:
ALISON SIMCOX. PhD
Environmental Scientist
(617) 918-168-4
simcox.alison@epa.gov
ANNE ARNOLD
Chief, Air Quj/ity
Planning Unit
(617)918-10-17
arnold.anne@epa.gov
ROBERT HILLGER
Senior Science Advisor
(617) 918-8660
hillger.robert@epa.gov
GENERAL INFO:
EPA NEW ENGLAND
REGIONAL LABORATORY
11 Technology Dr.
North Chelmsford, MA 01863
(6I7) 9I8-8300
www.epa.gov/ne/lab
TOLL-FREE
CUSTOMER SERVICE
1-800-EPA-7341
PROGRESS:
Since 2001, EPA New England, in partnership with the
EPA Office of Water and the U.S. Geological Survey, have
collaborated with mercury researchers to gather data and
information on mercury, including its sources, transport and
deposition, and environmental responses. Although these
data have many uses, EPA New England scientists continued
to work toward developing a regional mercury model with
the realization that this might be a one-time opportunity
to integrate such a rich body of data. In 2006, EPA New
England was awarded a grant to complete MERGANSER
through EPA's Advanced Monitoring Initiative (AMI). AMI
projects "showcase" approaches suitable for broad EPA ap-
plication. MERGANSER, which is expected to be completed
in 2010, builds off of experience gained in developing the
New England SPARROW model, which predicts nutrient
loadings in rivers, Success with SPARROW suggested that a
modified model could be used to assess another widespread
pollutant, mercury. MERGANSER will link atmospheric mer-
cury-deposition models with data on mercury sources, mer-
cury levels in fish and birds, and ecosystem features that may
be associated with elevated mercury in biota. The model
will identify variables (e.g.. low pH, watershed area) that are
significantly correlated with mercury levels in fish and birds.
and use this information to predict contaminant levels in
aquatic ecosystems throughout New England.
Once data pertaining to independent and dependent
model variables are gathered and quality-assured, the
project team will begin building the MERGANSER mul-
tivanate regression model for predicting mercury levels
in fish tissue. A second modeling activity will develop an
empirical linkage between mercury levels in fish and birds
and associated species population effects, such as repro-
ductive impairment and behavioral abnormalities. These
two models will be a major step in understanding how re-
gional and local mercury deposition and sources, as well as
landscape features, influence mercury levels in biota.
BENEFITS:
The MERGANSER model will provide a statistically valid
tool for EPA and its partners to identify aquatic ecosystems
at risk for mercury contamination, and likely sources of this
mercury. Predicted contamination will be expressed as mer-
cury levels above or below fislxonsumption advisory levels
or in terms of ecological risk to birds. MERGANSER is being
developed using a GIS so that data and maps can be displayed
at various scales. Powerful model features will include the abif
ity to predict changes in mercury levels in biota resulting from
implementing various policy options and the identification of
optimal monitoring locations. Additionally, the model will be
useful for developing mercury models in other areas of the
US where this level of mercury data is not available.
United States
Environmental Protection
LAgency
© printed on 100% recycled paper, with a minimum of 50% poil consumer wosle, using vegefable-ba^ed inks
EPA-901 F09017
April 2009
------- |