RECONNAISSANCE
ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
GRANDE RONDE RIVER BASIN
UNION COUNTY, OREGON
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Water Supply and Pollution Control Program
Pacific Northwest
Portland, Oregon
April, 1961
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Reconnaissance
Economic Base Analysis and Forecast
Grande Ronde River Basin, Union County, Oregon
A. Purpose and Scope of Survey
This survey is for the purpose of providing basic data about the
economy of the Grande Ronde River Basin. This data will be utilized in
the preparation of the water supply and pollution control recommendations
of the U. S. Public Health Service for the Grande Ronde River. These
recommendations were requested by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers in
connection with their evaluation of projects in this area. This survey
is of a reconnaissance nature and is intended only to describe the
general nature of the economy and the major possibilities for change.
Although existing reports and statistics provide the basis for most of
the survey, a number of specific economic growth factors have been
explored on a reconnaissance basis with appropriate agencies having
knowledge of phases of the economy.
B. Study Area and Study Period
For the purpose of this survey the study area has been defined
as Union County, Oregon and its major communities. The study period is
the 50 year period ending in 2010.
C. Geography of Study Area
The Grande Ronde River is the principal water course in Union
County. It is flanked by the Blue Mountains and the WaiIowa Mountains.
The Grande Ronde River Basin in the center of the county occupies about
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360 square miles. This basin is nearly flat and receives an annual rain-
fall of about 20 inches. The growing season on the basin floor is about
160 days.
A more detailed description of the general physical features,
climate, and history of the study area is available in the March 1955
U. S. Bureau of Reclamation Report entitled "Grande Rcada Project, Oregon."
D. Land and Water Uses
Union County contains about 1.3 million acres of land. About 60%
of this is classed as commercial forest land and about 15% is cropland.
The major land cover classifications of the county are described in
Table 1.
Present uses for water in the county are for municipal and
industrial water supplies, irrigation, recreation, and the conveyance of
treated sewage effluent. Irrigation use is limited to serving 3,300
acres with a full water supply, and about 8 times this acreage with a
partial supply. Recreational use of water is considerable in the mountain
areas, but on the floor of the basin is limited to steelhead and trout
fishing.
E. Existinj^ Economic Base
1. Population
The population of Union County has been relatively stable
since 1900. Between 1950 and 1960 the county's population increased
0.7% compared to Oregon's growth of 15.5% and a national growth of
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Table 1. Land Cover for Union County, Oregon
ForPSt land
Cconnercial
Ponderosa pine 253,940
Other 524,690
Noncommercial 43,390
Nonforest land
Vegetative land (cultivated, grass or brush) 439,560
Koavegetativc land (including barrens and cities) 36,660
Reservoirs 1,260
Total, all land 1,229,500
Source: Forest Statistics for Umatilla and Union Counties,
Oregon, Forest Survey Report 135, Pacific Northwest
Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service,
U. S. Department of Agriculture, April 1960.
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18.5%. Half of the county's 1960 population resided in LaGrande and
about a third lived outside the four major communities of the county.
Population trends and distribution for Union County are shown in
Table 2.
2• Industry, Agriculture, and Employment
Agriculture and forest products are the major basis for the
county's economic activity. The distribution of employment for 1950
is shown in Tabla 3. This Table indicates that agriculture is the
largest employer and lumber and wood products manufacturing is second
among the basic or primary industries. The large number of workers
in the category of "transportation and utilities" include the Union
Pacific Railroad shops at LaGrande.
Examination of the statistics of workers "covered" by the
Oregon Employment Security Law indicates that there has been little
change in the employment pattern since 1950. An exception is that
the Union Pacific shops have been moved from LaGrande. In addition
there has been a small amount of growth among the various secondary
industries such as trade and services. From examination of the 1959
Census of Agriculture there is also an indication that there is a
downward trend in agricultural employment. Unfortunately the detailed
statistics of 1960 Census of Population are not yet available to
confirm these trends.
The forest products industry of the county is based on the
large forested areas in and adjacent to the county. As indicated in
Table 1, about 60% of the county's land is classed as commercial
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Table 2. Population Statistics of Union County, Oregon
Number of Persons
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
County Total 12,044 16,070 16,191 16,636 17,492 17,399 17,962 18,180
LaGrande 2,583 2,991 4,843 6,913 8,050 7,747 8,635 9,014
Union 604 937 1,483 1,319 1,107 1,398 1,307 1,490
Cove 223 — 433 399 307 321 282 311
Elgin 227 603 1,120 1,043 728 997 1,223 1,315
Remainder of 8,407 — 8,312 6,962 7,300 6,936 6,515 6,050
County
Distribution of Population in 1960
LaGrande 49.6%
Union 8«2
Cove 1.7
Elgin 7.2
Other 33.3
Source: Based on population counts by the U. S. Bureau of the Census.
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Table 3. Union County Employment Distribution in 1950
Number of Workers
All employed 6,598
Agriculture 1,391
Forestry, Fisheries, Mining 31
Construction 401
Manufacturing 948
Food and Kindred 122
Lumber and Wood Products 699
Other 127
Transportation and Utilities 876
Trade 1,189
Wholesale 183
Retail 1,006
Other 573
Source: 1950 Census of Population, U. S. Bureau of the
Census.
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forest: land and about half of this is in Ponderosa pine. The timber
harvest in 1959 was slightly over 110 million board feet (Scribner
log rule). Almost three-fourths of this was from private lands. The
pattern of recent years has been similar to this. Manufacturing of
forest products is confined to lumber, furniture, and millwork.
The present agriculture of the county is mainly based on the
production of small grains and seed. The land use of agricultural
land is described in Table 4. Of the acreage indicated for cropland
harvested, about half was devoted to small grains in 1959, about one-
third to hay (mainly alfalfa) and significant amounts to seed crops,
peas, and vegetables. The Bureau of Reclamation has estimated that
the study area includes a total of 150,000 acres of agricultural
lands. Although the 1959 Census of Agriculture indicates that 27,000
acres were irrigated, only about one-eighth of these were considered
to have an adequate supply.
The mineral industry of the county is almost entirely confined
to materials for the construction industry. The 1959 value of mineral
production was $663,000, which is slightly over 1% of the state's
total production of minerals. The county's mineral products, listed
in order of value, are as follows: stone, sand and gravel, clays,
gold.
Employment in transportation and utilities has been reduced
by several hundred persons since 1950 because the Union Pacific
Railroad abolished its shops at LaGrande. Employment in this category
at the present time is limited to that required to serve the local
area. The remaining categories, which account for about half the
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Table 4. Agricultural land use in Union County
1953
Number of farms 873
Average size of farm, acres 604
Land in farms, acres 527,355
Cropland harvested, acres 107,501
Cropland used only for pasture, acres 21,085
Cropland not harvested or pastured, acres 48,662
Cropland summer fallow, cultivated, acres (35,285)
Woodland pastured, acres 19,590
Other pasture, acres 174,324
Irrigated land in farms, acres 27,073
Source: 1959 Census of Agriculture
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total employment, are also considered to be of a service or secondary
nature, Part of this employment, however, is in activities which
benefit from tourists and the recreational opportunities of the
adjoining WaiIowa and Blue Mountains*
F. Potential Growth
Three principal possibilities for growth are considered Ijkely.
The net result of all three is anticipated to produce only a small increase
in the study area's population during the study period. This increase is
considered to be of about the same (or slightly greater) order of magnitude
as the area's historical growth trend.
Agriculture on much of the basin floor is anticipated to gradually
convert to irrigation if satisfactory water supplies are made available*
The Grande Ronde Project, as described in the March 1S55 report of the
U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, proposed to irrigate almost 59,000 acres.
This project was not carried out because of the lack of desire of local
residents to alter their cropping practices. The land limitation of 160
acres per person was probably also a major contributor to the reluctance
to participate in the project. Although much of the same sentiment
towards irrigation still exists, it is considered likely that a gradual
shift would take place if a multiple-purpose project would make water
available at a lesser cost than previously proposed. This shift would
be accelerated if a dry cycle occurred or if price supports for wheat
were less favorable. A shift to irrigation would bring about a growth
in farm employment due to the more intensive farming practices likely to
occur. The growth in farm employment would be much greater except that
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it is considered likely to be partially offset by farm mechanization.
Estimates by persons in the county connected with agriculture place the
increase in farm employment at from 50% to 100% on the acreage converted
to irrigacion. Considering total farm employment, this would be a
growth in the range of 17% to 33% during the study period if irrigation
comparable to the Bureau of Reclamation proposal occurs. Such an increase
in irrigated acreage is not considered likely to create a significant
growth in the food processing industry of the area. Although a sugar beet
refinery is a possibility in this regard, it would require a major
conversion to sugar beets by most farm operators in the basin and in
adjacent areas in order to make a minimum sized refinery practical. A
more likely possibility is the increased production of livestock as part
of the crop from irrigated land. This activity lends itself to gradual
conversion and is not inconsistent with the capabilities of the existing
operations. Such an operation might possibly make a local meat packing
operation feasible, but the availability of such facilities in the
Pendleton area will lessen this possibility considerably.
The forest products industry of the study area is considered
likely to experience a small amount of growth during the study period.
The forest resource is presently being utilized at more than its maximum
long range capability. Timber on the Federal lands is being harvested at
the sustained yield capacity, while timber on private lands is being
harvested at a rate greater than the sustained yield capacity. In the
near future some drop in harvest and in employment will occur until the
old cutover lands are again ready for harvest. In about ten years increased
utilization of currently noncommercial species will also increase the
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hatvest and employment opportunities in the forest. Manufacturing opera-
tions are not expected to change drastically. Increased automation might
be offset by increasing the amount of manufacturing done on the raw
materials. A pulp plant is not considered likely because manufacturing
operations providing the main source of chips are part of the same
company's operations which owns a pulp mill at Wallula, Washington on
the Columbia River. The Wallula pulp mill, which is within reasonable
transportation distance, is currently being expanded and will be able to
continue to handle the chips from the study area. A further (and severe)
limiting factor to the location of a pulp mill in the study area is the
difficulty of obtaining an adequate water supply and disposing of industrial
waste. Although a fiberboard plant is a possibility, it would be in
competition with the pulp mill for most of its raw materials, and is not
considered likely in the near future.
The third potential for growth in the study area is the increase
in service activities due to such factors as increased tourist and
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recreational activities in the surrounding area, growth of the college
at LaGrande, and an increasing ratio of service activities to primary or
basic industry. These factors, of course, have been in operation in the
past and have helped to offset some of the declines in certain other
parts of the area's economy.
G. Potential Land and Water Uses
The changes which can be anticipated in land uses are a matter
of intensity of use rather than change in classification of use. Although
about the same relative amounts of forest land can be expected to be in
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the various stages of production and harvest, the actual areas will be
rotated according to the production cycle. It is expected, also, that
there will be a gradual trend toward production from younger forests, the
use c2 species not previously considered to be commercial, and the
Increased use of insecticides and fertilizers on the forest crop.
The conversion of agricultural land to irrigated land would
bring about a major change in the intensity of land use, as well as in
the type of crops and cultivation practices, and will bring annual
cropping to many areas now summer fallowed in alternate years. Increased
irrigation would also create a major potential for degrading water quality
through irrigation water return flows. The elimination of floods through
storage projects would also make possible a greater utilization of the
agricultural land, but would probably result in an overall improvement
of water quality by permitting increased low season flows.
The construction of water control projects in the area vculd make
several changes in water use likely. These would include a large increase
in the use of water for irrigation, the availability of water for aug-
menting municipal and industrial water supplies, the creation of reservoirs
with recreation potentials, and the augmentation of low river flows during
critical periods. The latter would make possible the assimilation of
larger amounts of treated municipal or industrial waste, would possibly
enhance the fishery resource, and might have recreational possibilities
not now developed.
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H. Conclusions
The study area's economy is mainly based on forest products and
non-irrigated agriculture, with contributions to the economy from tourists
and recreation in the adjacent areas, and from the College of Education
at LaGrande. The communities of the area are based on both lumber manu-
facturing activities and providing services for the surrounding areas and
activities. The population growth of the area has been very stable with
only a 127. increase in the last 50 years.
The growth of population over the next 50 years is expected to be
similar to the historical growth. Forest products industries are expected
to experience little overall growth in employment. Agricultural employment
might increase by 25% (average of range of forecast) if a major conversion
to irrigation is made. Some Increases in service activities are likely.
The major potential change in land use would be the conversion of
agricultural land to irrigation. This would depend on the development of
water storage projects. Such a development might have a variety of
influences of importance to water supply and water quality management
considerations. These would include the following major possibilities:
Increased irrigation creating more intensive land use
and irrigation water return flows,
Augmentation of municipal and industrial water supplies,
Increased capacity of affected streams for assimilation
of treated waste,
Improvement of the fishery resource,
Increased recreational use of the area's streams both
on the reservoirs and downstream*
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