WATER RESOURCES
WORKBOOK
MAY 1961
DALLAS, TEXAS
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FOREWORD
This is a collection of papers to be given at the first
Public Health Service Water Resources Conference. They are being
sent to you in order that you may have an opportunity to read and
study them prior to the meeting and thus be better able to enter
into their discussion. By so participating, you will contribute
to the development of policies and procedures that we hope will
ultimately be those of the Public Health Service, and you will
assist in making this conference a success.
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PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
WATER RESOURCES CONFERENCE
May 24, 25, and 26, 1961
Dallas Hotel Dallas, Texas
May 24. 1961
9:00 - 9:05 a.m. Opening Remarks
Jerome H. Svore
9:05 - 9:15 a.m. Welcome
E. C. Warkentin
First Session
Moderator - Robert W. Haywood, Jr.
9:15 - 9:45 a.m. Water Resources Planning - Positive versus
Negative Approach
Keith S. Krause
9:45 - 10:15 a.m. Discussion - Leader: Lester M. Klashman
10:15 - 10:30 a.m. Coffee Break
10:30 - 11:00 a.m. Population Forecasting - Methodologies and Merits
William E. Torget
11:00 - 11:30 a.m. Discussion - Leader: Richard S. Green
11:30 - 11:45 a.m. Conclusions
Second Session
Moderator - Paul W. Eastman, Jr.
1:15 - 1:45 p.m. Growth Factors in Economic Base Studies
John H. Davidson
1:45 - 2:15 p.m. Discussion - Leader: James J. Flannery
2:15 - 2:30 p.m. Conclusions
2:30 - 2:45 p.m. Coffee Break
2:45 - 3:15 p.m. Location Factors
Charles H. Hajinian
3:15 - 4:00 p.m. Discussion - Leader: David A. Robertson
4:00 - 4:15 p.m. Conclusions
6:30 - 7:30 p.m. Dinner - Speaker: Dr. Richard F. Boyd
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-2-
Mav 25. 1961
9:15 - 9:45 a.m.
9:45
10:30
10:45
11:00
10:30 a.m.
10:45 a.m.
11:00 a.m.
11:30 a.m.
11:30 - 12:00 noon
12:00 - 12:15 p.m.
Third Session
Moderator - H. W. Poston
Projecting Water Requirements in the Boondocks
Walter R. Hager
Discussion - Leader: Francis A. Jacocks
Conclusions
Coffee Break
Agriculture - Effects on Water Demands
Willis G. Eichberger
Discussion - Leader: Garry L. Fisk
Conclusions
1:30 - 2:00 p.m.
2:00 -
2:30 -
2:45 -
3:00 -
2:30 p.m.
2:45 p.m.
3:00 p.m.
3:30 p.m.
3:30 - 4:00 p.m.
4:00 - 4:15 p.m.
Fourth Session
Moderator - Kaarlo W. Nasi
Estimating Future Water Demand.
Charles R. Ownbey
Discussion - Leader: Paul DeFalco, Jr.
Conclusions
Coffee Break
Must Water Treatment Be High Priced?
Earnest F. Gloyna
Discussion - Leaders Herbert C. Clare
Conclusions
May 26. 1961
8:30 - 9:00 a.m.
9:00 - 9:30 a.m.
9:30 - 9:45 a.m.
Fifth Session
Moderator - John R. Thoman
Must Stream Quality Be Maintained?
F. W. Kittrell
Discussion - Leader: W. W. Towne
Conclusions
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-3-
Mav 26. 1961
9:45 - 10:00 a.m. Coffee Break
10:00 - 10:30 a.m. Principles and Policies for the Evaluation and
Reimbursement of Water Supply and Pollution Abate-
ment Benefits from Federal Storage Projects
M. E. Scheidt
10:30 - 11:00 a.m. Discussion - Leader: Lloyd W. Gebhardt
11:00 - 11:15 a.m. Conclusions
11:15 - 11:45 a.m. Should the Public Health Service Take a Stand
and Make Secondary Treatment Mandatory?
William H. Davis
11:45 - 12:15 p.m. Discussion - Leader: John F. Smouse
12:15 - 12:30 p.m. Conclusions
12:45 p.m. Luncheon
Sixth Session
Moderator - Jerome H. Svore
1:30 p.m. A Review of Conclusions and Agreements for
Future Action
Leonard B. Dworsky
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NOTES
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NOTES
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NOTES
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POPULATION FORECASTING - METHODOLOGIES AND MERITS
William E. Torget
Water Resources Section
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Public Health Service, Region VII
U. S. Department of Health, Education, & Welfare
Introduction
One of our primary tasks is to forecast the water demand for
a designated area half a century hence. The water demand is a function
of the number of people and the activities of these people. We will
concern ourselves here with the number of people. We will further
limit our concern to the forecast of population for the larger cities.
This limitation, however, obviously necessitates a forecast of the
country and other major subdivisions.
The task before us is to determine what will be the probable
population in a given metropolitan area 50 years from now. Having
estimated that, then what is the probable error of this estimate?
The agency that does most of the forecasting - Bureau of the Census -
has this to say about its own forecasts: "It should be borne in mind
that the projections to 1980 are all quite speculative; and that the
projections for the year 2000 are of the nature of a mathematical
exercise." And we are required to go a decade or two beyond a point
that is already 20 years removed from a time that only a very specula-
tive forecast can be made. It is little wonder why so many souls
become timid and attempt to shield themselves with a phrase such as,
"These are projections and not predictions," or else to predict such
a wide range of growth possibilities that the forecast cannot miss if
the city has a population explosion or a hydrogen explosion.
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We have no such escape clause. We must come up with an
extrapolation, a projection, or a forecast (A forecast by any other
name is still a forecast and let's call it such). Let's grant, with-
out apology, that the likelihood of forecasting with precision is
astronomically small. Since we grant that an error in forecasting
will be made, then what data and knowledge can we use to minimize
the error? Perhaps the best indicators will be past trends,; especially,
if .they 'have been relatively consistent. Past trends may
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What has the growth rate been for the total SMA
population and what will it be in the future?
Growth of the metropolitan population has been one of the most
conspicuous features of the population movement of the United States
during the first half of the 20th century. For all decades the SMA
population has grown at a more rapid rate than that of the Nation.
Table 1
Percentage Increase in SMA*, and
Total National Population
for the decades 1910-1960
Total
Decade SMA* National Population
1910-20 33.8 14.9
1920-30 32.1 16.2
1930-40 9.3 7.2
1940-50 26.0 14.3
1950-60 29.6 18.9
* The SMA population for all decades is that residing in the
geographic area that was defined as SMA in 1960.
It is observed that the SMA population increase has been
relatively constant for the last 5 decades (ranging from 26-33 per
cent) with the exception of the depression decade. The out-of-trend
population increase in the SMA population during the 1930's, was the
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result of a low national increase and a restricted rural to urban
migration. The differential growth rate of the SMA and Non-SMA is
primarily explained by the marked migration into the SMA's.
The growth trend of the total SMA population indicated in
Table 1, however, cannot be used to depict the average growth trend
of the SMA's because the base is changing; i.e., more cities are
included in the end of the decade than in the beginning of the decade.
When the data is standardized to exclude the population of those SMA's
that were added during the decade, the growth rate is more uniform.
Again, with the exception of the depression years, the average SMA
growth varied between a narrow range — from 21 to 26 per cent.
Table 2
Percentage Increase in SMA*, and
Total National Population
for the Decades 1910-1960
Percentage Increase for Decade
SMA- 2
24.4
26.6
8.1
21.4
24.5
Non-SMA 's
9.0
8.0
6.4
6.3
11.3
National Total
14.9
16.2
7.2
14.3
18.9
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
*The SMA population for all decades is that which resided in the
geographic area defined as SMA in 1960. It includes, however, only
the increase in the SMA's that meet the requirements for SMA in the
beginning of each decade. Hereafter this will be referred to as
SMA-2. Those cities that met the SMA criterion only at the end of
each decade is included in the Non-SMA population.
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The apparent consistency of the SMA-2 population increase
during these 4 decades is an illusion and cannot be used in pre-
diction. First, the national population increase varied and the
relative size of the source of migration (the Non-SMA population)
varied. If the effect of these two factors are standardized by the
conditions which prevailed during the 1950-60 decade, the growth of
the SMA-2 population would show a declining trend.
Table 3
Standardized SMA-2 Population Increase
by Decades 1910-1960
Decade Percentage Increase
1910-20 33.1
1920-30 29.4
1930-40 27.0
1940-50 26.3
1950-60 24.5
This decline in the rate of increase for the SMA-2 population
perforce must continue for the obvious reason that the relative size
of the Non-SMA is decreasing and hence one of the main sources of
growth, i.e., migration from the Non-SMA, is becoming relatively
smaller and will, therefore, contribute relatively less to the SMA-2
growth. Table 4 demonstrates this.
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Table 4
Trend in the Ratio of Non-SMA Population
to SMA-2 Population
by Decades 1910-1960
SMA Population
(in millions)
at Beginning of
Decade
1910-20
1920-30
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
Decade
35.3
47.2
62.3
68.1
85.8
Non-SMA
Population
(in millions)
at Beginning of
Decade
Ratio of the
(migration pool)
Non-SMA.
to SMA Population
56.7
58.5
60.5
63.6
64.9
1.61
1.24
.97
.93
.76
Given these past 50-year trends, (1) what will be the forecast
in the total SMA population, and (2) what will be the forecast in-
crease in the growth of the SMA-2 population? (A national population
of 380,000,000 in 2010 will be assumed. Justification for the adoption
of this figure will be stated later.) The total SMA population, which
increased 215 per cent during the last 50 years, will increase 157
per cent to 300,000,000 the next 50 years. The decrease in the rate
of increase will happen in spite of the fact that the national popula-
tion is assumed to increase a little more rapidly in the next 50 years
than it did in the previous 50 years. The explanation is that one of
its primary sources of population, the Non-SMA pool, is becoming
relatively smaller. The SMA-2 population will witness a decline in
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the rate of increase from 24 per cent in 1950-60 to 17.8 per cent
between 2000-10. To assume that the present rate of SNA population
increase will continue, as many mistakenly do, is tantamount to
assuming a national population of approximately 500,000,000. Few
predict a forecast this high. These forecasts are based on pro-
jections shown on Figure 1. Note the fairly consistent growth trends
of the past 50 years for both the SMA and Non-SMA population.
Table 5
Trends and Forecast of SMA. Population
by Decades 1910-2010
(Population in millions)
Year
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
2000
2010
Number
of
SMAs
91
119
144
151
176
210
Total
SMA!/
Population
35.3
47.2
62.3
68.1
85.8
111.2
250.2
300.0
Per Cent
Increase
33.8
32.1
9.3
26.0
29.6
19.8
Total Adjusted
SMA2./ Population
43.9
59.6
67.3
82.7
106.8
246.0
295.0
Per Cent
Increase^/
24.4
26.3
8.1
21.4
24.5
17.8
I/ Total SMA population the decade indicated.
21 SMA population of those SMA's which qualified as SMA's the
preceding decade.
3/ The 24.4 per cent, for example, is derived from 43.9 • 35.3.
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PAGE NOT
AVAILABLE
DIGITALLY
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8
The foregone analysis is not intended to be used to forecast
an individual SMA; it is only to establish a ceiling for the rate of
increase of the SMA's, and furthermore, to remind us that the rate
of increase of SMA's must decrease if we assume any national popula-
tion forecast short of approximately 500,000,000.
Before turning our attention to the individual metropolitan
area, let's see if there are significant differential growth rates
among various size SMA's. Do smaller ones grow more rapidly than
larger ones? Do these cities slow down as they get larger?
Is the rate of growth associated with size? An answer to this
question can be approximated two ways. First, we can group cities
into several size categories and see if the smaller ones grow at a
different rate than the larger ones. This has obvious shortcomings
because the only factor being held constant is size, and size is not
the major determinant in the rate of growth. Because many use this
technique, it is well to examine these trends. A better measure,
because it would have greater predictive value, would be to determine
if the individual cities vary in rate of growth as they get larger.
This, too, is difficult to ascertain because the growth potential
varies between decades. For example, in the 1930 decade, the
population of the country grew at less than half the rate of any of
the other decades studied; whereas, the recent decade witnessed the
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greatest absolute, as well as relative, growth. This obviously
affects and is affected by the growth rate of SMA's. An examination
of the question is nevertheless worthwhile because it may lead us to
"ball park" figures. If not, it is equally important to expose
erroneous forecast methods.
The median growth rate is remarkably constant for the cities
in the 4-size classes, between 100 thousand and 1.6 million. The
average for the 5 decades ranged from 17.2 per cent to 19.6 per cent.
There was greater variability, however, within a size class from one
decade to another. Nevertheless, the range was not large. The
cities under 100,000 and those over 1,600,000 grew at a slower rate.
The reason for the lower rate of increase for the smallest group is
that a disproportionately large part of their metropolitan area is
rural. If the effect of this were eliminated, cities under 100,000
would grow at approximately 19 per cent also. This data suggests
that size, within the limits mentioned, does not affect the rate of
growth. The statement is equally true of individual cities. Cities
between 100,000 and 800,000 do not decrease in the rate of growth
as they get larger. The growth rate must be decreased for reasons
mentioned earlier (the relative migration from1 Uoti^SMA's is decreas-
ing) but not because the city is growing from, for example, 300,000
to 800,000.
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Table 6
Population Increases in SMA1s of Varying Size-Classes
1910-1960
Number
1910
1920
Mean
Median
Number
1920
1930
Mean
Median
Number
1930
1940
Mean
Median
Number
1940
1950
Mean
Median
Number
1950
1960
Mean
Median
Number
1960
Mean of above
medians
Excluding '30's
Including '30's
Under
100,000
15
1,279,866
1,528,089
19
22
16
1,351,379
1,633,518
20
15
23
1,970,013
2,117,498
7
5
20
1,708,770
2,110,688
23
16
18
1,467,122
1,748,442
19
17
18
15
100-
200,000
.4
.4
.9
,3
.5
.2
.5
.8
.2
.7
.1
.5
4,540,
5,901,
6,603,
8,223,
7,276,
8,125,
7,775,
9,866,
8,800,
11,163,
32
290
813
30.0
23.4
47
106
378
24.5
18.2
51
853
941
11.7
9.5
54
723
820
26.9
22.4
62
958
348
26.8
24.4
22.1
19.6
200-
400,000
23
6,302,265
7,693,545
22
21
32
9,122,690
10,942,650
19
18
37
10,280,272
11,163,637
8
7
42
11,736,553
14,610,423
24
19
47
12,982,471
16,271,351
25
19
19
17
.1
.2
.9
.3
.6
.2
.5
.8
.3
.3
.6
.2
400-
800,000
15
8,780,979
11,601,712
32.1
23.8
12
6,819,983
8,268,542
21.2
20.6
19
10,445,550
11,262,716
7.8
6.6
19
10,436,693
12,748,706
22.2
21.5
28
14,966,685
19,715,530
31.7
25.4
22.8
19.6
800-
1,600,000
2
2,503,536
2,926,421
16.9
16.4
7
7,288,751
10,768,405
47.7
33.5
7
8,057,899
8,549,984
6.1
5.6
9
10,350,174
12,960,743
25.2
17.4
12
13,246,952
16,726,103
26.3
25.4
23.2
19.6
Over
1,600,000
4
11,849,576
14,224,524
20.0
19.0
5
15,984,513
19,753,621
23.6
16.0
7
24,258,130
26,095,463
7.6
3.4
7
26,095,463
30,412,775
16.5
13.3
9
34,372,830
41,218,740
19.9
19.0
(new) 34
4,406,190
16.8
14.1
Total SMA
Population
91
35,256,512
43,876,104
24
119
47,170,422
59,590,114
26
144
62,288,717
67,315,239
8
151
68,103,376
82,710,155
21
176
85,837,018
106,842,514
24
210
111,248,704
i-
c
.4
.3
.1
.4
.5
j
)
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11
Knowledge of the average growth rate and the correlation of
size and growth rate is useful but one cannot rest his forecasts on
these. There are wide deviations from these averages. While it is
true that one will miss the forecast on the total population of a
group of cities less if he uses the average, there are measures more
accurate for individual cities. Let's next examine the extent of
the variation from the average.
Is there a wide dispersion in growth rates among SMA's?
There is an extreme range in the rate of change. Some more than
double during a ten year span, while others experience decreases.
The smaller SMA1 s have a greater disparity in the rate of growth
than larger cities. Even the size group that had the least vari-
ability in the rate of growth during the 1950-60 decade -- the
800,000 to 1,600,000 class-- varied from a low of 15 per cent
increase to a high of 53 per cent. The difference in these rates
is greater than is first apparent. If one were to project an SMA.
of 1,000,000 population on the bases of these two rates compounded
every decade; .he would show a projection of 1,600,000 and 8,000,000.
And remember the other size groups vary more. See Table 7.
This is not to say, however, that no discernible pattern
exists. Remember, these are the extreme variations in the rate of
growth and there are obviously few SMA's at either the upper or
lower end of the scale. To show the variation between these ex-
tremes and to bring order to this mass of data, the rate of growth
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12
is tabulated for SMA's by size groups and by relative rank in Table 7
for four previous decades. To show this dispersion, the percentile
rank was computed. The 75th percentile, for example, indicates the
percentage growth that above which 25 per cent and below which 75
per cent of the SMA's experienced. The percentile growth rates for
each SMA size group were averaged for all decades to more nearly
approximate the rate of growth over time. The 1930-40 decade was
eliminated because it was atypical, while the other four decades
had a relatively uniform national growth rate and one which coincides
with the projected national growth rate. Variability in the growth
rate between decades within the same percentile rank of a given SMA
size class exists, but is not great in the 25 to 75 percentile rank.
For example, the SMA (size class 200,000 to 400,000) in the 75th
percentile growth rank increased between 28 per cent and 31 per
cent for an average of 30 per cent. The median or 50th percentile
increased from 18 to 21 per cent, or an average of 20 per cent,
while the 25th percentile increased between 11 per cent to 18 per
cent for an average of 14 per cent. Figure 2 shows the average of
these percentile growth rates. Note the uniformity of the rates
of growth for the 75th to 25th percentile rank for the cities
between 100,000 to 1,600,000. As mentioned previously, the SMA's
under 100,000 are expected to more closely approximate the rate of
increase of the other SMA size groups in the near future. It is
only the SMA's over 1,600,000 that deviate from this pattern.
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RANGE IN PERCENTAGE GROWTH
OF SMA'S OF VARYING SIZE GROUPS
1910-1960
120
100
80
Q
O
(E
Ul
0.
LJ
O 60
U.
Ul
(O
Ul
g
S 40
UJ
3
I- 30
UJ
O
% 20
£L
10
-10
HIGHEST
LESS THAN
ioopoo
100,000-
200,000
200pOO-
400,000
400,000-
800,000
800,000-
1,600,000
OVER
1,600,000
POPULATION SIZE GROUP
FIGURE 2
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13
Table 7
Range in the Percentage Rate of Growth of SMA's of Varying Size Groups
for 1910-20, 1920-30, 1940-50, 1950-60
Percentile
No.
Under 100.000:
1910-1920 15
1920-1930 16
1940-1950 20
1950-1960 18
Average
100-200.000:
1910-1920 32
1920-1930 47
1940-1950 54
1950-1960 62
Average
200-400.000:
1910-1920 23
1920-1930 32
1940-1950 42
1950-1960 47
Average
400-800.000:
1910-1920 15
1920-1930 12
1940-1950 19
1950-1960 28
Average
800-1.600.000;
1910-1920 2
1920-1930 7
1940-1950 9
1950-1960 12
Average
Over 1.600.000;
1910-1920 4
1920-1930 5
1940-1950 7
1950-1960 9
Average
Highest
51
56
79
69
64
164
92
78
123
116
37
45
92
120
73
113
42
53
86
73
20
133
53
53
55*
26
31
50
53
40
90
49
42
32
41
60
68
55
45
57
33
38
52
47
43
42
79
60
75
25
38
30
27
30
41
31
33
32
34
28
29
31
30
30
30
24
36
40
32
58
28
32
32*
23
22
22
67
23
24
27
22
24
33
29
28
30
30
27
26
29
25
27
28
22
28
35
28
40
22
29
30
17
20
18
IP.
22
15
17
17
18
23
18
22
24
22
21
18
20
19
20
24
21
22
25
23
16
33
17
25
23
19
16
13
19
17
33
13
10
16
10
12
17
11
18
21
17
19
14
13
16
16
18
18
15
21
18
26
15
22
21
9
14
12
25
12
9
15
8
11
13
9
14
16
13
18
12
11
14
14
17
16
12
18
16
20
14
20
18
8
10
9
10
0
7
3
5
9
-1
3
2
3
12
4
4
4
6
4
11
7
Lowest
1
-5
3
-7
-2
1
-7
-1
-3
-2
7
-8
-15
-12
-7
5
10
-11
-6
0
13
15
13
15
14
17
15
6
6
6*
* Atypical cases adjusted
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14
Of what predictive value is the above analysis? Simply this,
it will give guidance to the upper and lower limit of the forecast.
One can test the "reasonableness" of a given SMA attaining a specific
forecast population given the trends of past SMA's in various size
groups and given the particular SMA's past growth rate within these
size classes. If a SMA has been growing slower than average, say
about at the 25th percentile rank, then one can see what population
it would attain if it stayed at this relative position. Or if one
made a forecast, one can work backwards and determine at what relative
rank this SMA would have to grow to reach this forecast and to see
if this is "reasonable" in view of its past performance. One
problem remains: Do SMA's tend to grow at a relatively constant
trend compared to other cities in its size group? To spot-check
this, we will review the performance of the cities you gentlemen
represent. New York and Chicago are omitted because there are too
few SMA's in this size category.
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15
67
*
10
80
33
92
57
42
77
63
80
*
45
77
48
99
80
56
50
28
92
98
45
87
82
99
34
46
64
97
71
82
34
87
76
97
39
73
94
83
73
70
11
80
84
97
54
86
72
80
Table 8
Percent!le Growth Rank of Select SMA's for
Decades 1910-20, 1920-30, 1940-50, 1950-60
1910-20 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60
Atlanta
Austin
Cincinnati
Dallas
Denver
Houston
Kansas City
Salt Lake City
San Francisco-Oakland
Washington, D. C.
* Did not meet the requirement of a SMA.
Table 8 indicates that some SMA's grow at a relatively con-
sistent trend compared to cities in its size group while others do
not. However, the validity of a forecast within broad limits can
be checked by these data. Atlanta, for example, fluctuated within
the upper one-third of the fastest growing city in its size-class
during the last 5 decades. Austin has been experiencing a relatively
decreasing rate of increase. Houston, on the other hand, has con-
sistently been the fastest growing SMA in its size group the last
four decades.
These data establish rather broad boundary lines for pro-
jections. Atlanta has been hovering around the 75th percentile
growth rate. The average growth rate would seem low, but likewise
the 90th percentile would seem high. On the other hand, Cincinnati
-------
16
has never grown as fast as the average. It would seem from its
past record, and in the absence of radically changed conditions,
that to select a growth rate for Cincinnati that would be above
average would not be tenable.
In order to make projections of the probable range of growth
on the basis of the procedure just discussed, it will be necessary
to project the median and the percentile range in growth rate of
the various SMA size categories. It is assumed that the decreasing
rate of SMA. growth will influence all percentile growth rates the
same relative amount. These projected growth rates are tabulated
in Table 9.
An example of the use of Table 9 to project a SMA follows.
Table 8 shows that Dallas SMA fluctuated between the 77th and 87th
percentile. What) would be the range in the 2010 projection if one
assumes the upper limit would be that paralleling the.projected 90th
percentile growth rate and the lower limit would parallel the 75th
percentile.
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17
Table 10
Projection of Dallas
(Using projected 90th percentile growth rate)
Year
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Population
1,071,003
1,476,000
2,001,000
2,504,000
3,089,000
Growth Rate
137.8
135.6
125.1
123.4
121.8
Population
1,476,000
2,001,000
2,504,000
3,089,000
3,763,000
Year
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
(Using projected 75th percentile growth rate)
1960 1,071,003 130.2 1,394,000 1970
1970 1,394,000 128.5 1,792,000 1980
1980 1,792,000 118.4 2,122,000 1990
1990 2,122,000 117.2 2,486,000 2000
2000 2,486,000 116.0 2,884,000 2010
One enters the table with three arguments; SMA size,
percentile growth rate, and decade. In this table one finds that
SMA's ranging from 800,000 - 1,600,000 (Dallas was 1,071,003 in
1960) in the 1960-70 decade are predicted to grow 37.8:per cent
during the decade (if they grow at the 90th percentile growth rate)
During the following decade the rate is 35.6 per cent. By 1980
Dallas SMA is over 1,600,000, so one drops down to the category
"over 1,600,000V and uses the growth rates of 25.1 per cent,
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18
23.4 per cent, and 21.8 per cent for the next three decades. The
same is repeated for the 75th percentile growth rate. The calcula-
tions are illustrated in Table 10.
What is the reliability of these projections? The Bureau of
the Census states, "There is no approved body of knowledge which
justifies confident predictions for 15 years or more into the future."
This being the case, what claim to fame has this method? What
accuracy does it purport to have? The writer devised this procedure
in an attempt to establish limits within which a forecast would
seem "reasonable". The validity cannot be checked, of course, but
it can be compared to other techniques.
How does this projection compare with others? The RFF pro-
jection for the year 2000 was 2,950,000 (corrected to include the
addition of 3 more counties to the Dallas SMA) based upon the United
States total of 380,000,000 in 2010, which is assumed here. The
projection by the Bureau of Census for 2000 (adjusted to for the
same assumed national population) was approximately 2,860,000.
The projections proposed by the writer indicate a low of 2,486,000
and a hig of 3,089,000, for an average of 2,788,000.
Another check is to work "backwards". A population as high
as 9,000,000 has been forecast for Houston SMA from a base of
1,236,704 in 1960. Is this "reasonable"? To attain this population
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19
growth in 50 years, Houston SMA would have to increase 50 per cent
every 10 years. Although this rate of increase had been attained
in the 1950-60 decade by both Houston and Los Angeles, the fastest
growing SMA's in the two largest size categories (see Table 7), it
seems unlikely that a growth rate of that magnitude can be sustained
for reasons mentioned earlier. If Houston SMA is assumed to
continue to grow at the highest growth rate indicated on Table 9,
a population forecast of 6,502,000 would seem more reasonable.
This methodology is in the nature of a hypothesis. It seems
to give guidance. Nothing more is claimed.
-------
Table 9
Forecast Range in Percentage Growth Rates
for SMA's of Various Size-Classes
1960-2010
20
Percentile
Under 100,000
to 800.000:
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
800,000
to 1,600,000;
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Over
1.600.000:
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Highest
75
70.8
66.7
62.6
58.5
54.4
55
52.0
49.0
45.9
42.9
39.9
45
42.5
40.1
37.6
35.2
32.7
90
50
47.3
44.5
41.8
39.0
36.3
40
37.8
35.6
33.4
31.2
29.0
30
28.4
26.7
25.1
23.4
21.8
75
32
30.2
28.5
26.7
25.0
23.2
32
30.2
28.5
26.7
25.0
23.2
22
20.8
19.6
18.4
17.2
16.0
67
29
27.4
25.8
24.3
22.7
21.1
29
27.4
25.8
24.3
22.7
21.1
19
18.0
16.9
15.9
14.8
13.8
50
23
21.7
20.5
19.2
18.0
16.7
23
21.7
20.5
19.2
18.0
16.7
18
17.0
16.0
15.1
14.1
13.1
33
18
17.0
16.0
15.1
14.1
13.1
20
18.9
17.8
16.7
15.6
14.5
13
12.3
11.6
10.8
10.1
9.4
25.
15
14.2
13.4
12.5
11.7
10.9
18
17.0
16.0
15.1
14.1
13.1
9
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
10
5
4.7
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.6
16
15.1
14.2
13.4
12.5
11.6
8
7.6
7.1
6.7
6.2
5.8
Lowest
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
13.2
12.5
11.7
11.0
10.2
6
5.7
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.4
The mean associated with the above medians is 24.5 per cent.
The mean growth in 2010 is assumed to be 17.8 per cent.
The percentile growth rates therefore is reduced by 24.5/17.8 or 72.6 per
cent by 2010. The intervening years were reduced by arithmetic progression,
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21
Summary and Conclusions
1. There is no approved body of knowledge that justifies
confident population predictions for 15 years or more into the
future. Nevertheless, forecasts must be made. This paper summa-
ries the trends for Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas during
the last 50 years, and suggests limits of probable growth trends
for each SMA in the Nation.
2. Data of population trends of the last 50 years show
these trends:
a. The total SMA population has been increasing at
relatively constrant rate.
b. Net migration flows from the Non-SMA to the SMA,
therefore, the SMA is becoming a relatively larger
part of the total population.
c. ^h.e median growth rates and the deviations from
the median of SMA's between 100,000 and 1,600,000
show marked similarity.
d. Although there is considerable variation in the
rate of growth among SMA's in the same size group,
the relative variability in the growth rates of
individual SMA's is considerably less.
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22
3. Past trends suggest that:
a. The growth rate of the total SMA population will
decrease because the migration from the Non-SMA's
will contribute relatively less in its growth in
the future.
b. Since many SMA's grow at a relatively consistent
trend in relation to the growth rate of other
SMA's in their size category the growth rates
for individual SMA's can be projected.
4. The past rate of growth and the relative dispersion in
the rate of growth is shown for all SMA's of the Nation in the
appendix. From these data, the forecaster may make a judgment as
to the limits of the most probable future growth rate of a given
SMA. Table 9 summarizes the projected growth rates that can be
used for projection.
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
GROWTH FACTORS IN ECONOMIC BASE STUDIES-^'
This paper is concerned with the application of growth factors to
economic base studies and the consideration of whether the values for
these factors can be standardized.
The term "growth factors" has been selected to refer to a class of
terms which are used to describe some of the important changes in the
relationships between parameters of the economy. Examples include the
so-called productivity factor which describes the changing relationship
between the output of an industry and the quantity of labor employed. To
illustrate, if the productivity of the workers in a certain establishment
increases over time and the output of the plant is to remain the same, then
fewer workers will be required in the future or the same number of workers
will work shorter hours.
Another example of a growth factor is the changing relationship
between employment in primary (sometimes called basic or externally-
oriented) Industries and the number of service (sometimes called secondary
or internally-oriented) industry employees that are required to serve them.
When employment is converted to population, a third example of a growth
factor is found in the changing relationship describing the number of
persons in the population per worker.
As a first step in examining the nature of growth factors it is
desirable to examine how they will be used. They will, of course, be a
!/ Prepared by John H. Davidson, U. S. Public Health Service, Portland,
Oregon, March 1961.
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- 2 -
part of the economic study—more properly called the economic base
analysis and forecast. Although such studies are made for a number of
purposes, our interest in the economic study is usually as a tool to
provide basic data and forecasts about water consumers, users of water
resources, and contributors of pollution. By keeping such goals in mind
the economic study can avoid getting into irrelevant areas or providing
unnecessary detail. I think that we can agree that some of the more
important statistics which should come out of the economic study would be
population, employment, industrial output (for many, but not all, indus-
tries) and land use.
In order to get a better look at the economic study and to recognize
the role of growth factors it is helpful to construct a model. The con-
struction of such a model is also one of the basic steps in preparing the
economic study. It should be pointed out that many of the people who
prepare economic base studies use the model technique without calling it
such. The concept of a model, however, is particularly important because
it assists in the recognition and definition of the important relationships
between segments of the economy. The acknowledgment and understanding of
the causes and effects of various economic features is basic to interpreting
and forecasting the economy of a specific area. Such an understanding can
frequently point the way to avoiding two dangerous over-simplifications
frequently encountered in forecasting. These are (1) blind extrapolation
of historical trends, and (2) assuming that the study area has exactly the
same characteristics as the Nation and will maintain its same relative
position. It should be recognized that the use of a model does not neces-
sarily mean that an equation must be written. Many worthwhile economic
-------
- 3 -
studies are conducted on a much less formal basis, with the model being
described in sentences rather than by a formula.
As a basis for the model we need to know some of the fundamental
relationships between the facets of the economy which relate to the sta-
tistics we want to obtain. One important such relationship is indicated
in the concept that some economic activities which involve employment of
persons are of a primary nature and others are of a supporting nature.
Although the distinctions are sometimes difficult to make, a very useful
tool is derived by classifying all industries— into either externally-
oriented industry or internally-oriented industry and examining the nu-
merical relationships between their respective employments.
It should be noted at this point that the reference to either
external or internal orientation of industry has been selected to attempt
to overcome some of the shortcomings of other such pairs of terms for
industry as basic and non-basic, primary and secondary (or service), etc.
These classifications can be briefly defined as follows:
Externally-oriented industries depend on the particular
resources or manufacturing opportunities of the area. These
opportunities allow, in theory, for the prdduction of goods
in excess of the requirements of the community. The excess
is exported from the area, and products from other areas are
imported. The internally-oriented Industries, in general,
depend on the consumer needs of a community. They supply
I/ The term "industries" is used in the broad sense to indicate all types
of value-producing activities. These activities include those relating
to both goods and services and not just to manufacturing.
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- 4 -
goods and services sufficient for the community and grow when
the community's externally-oriented industries develop.
When using this model approach, it should be recognized that the
bigger the study area the less valid is the technique. As a ridiculous
example, if the whole United States is considered, there is very little
basis for making a distinction between primary industry and supporting
industry because about 95 per cent of our national economic activity is
for internal consumption. On a community or local area basis, however,
it is typical to find about half the economic activity is internally
oriented and half is externally-oriented. The ratio between these two
types of industry is usually a function of the size and diversity of the
community's or area's economy. Depending upon the area, the ratio can
vary from, say, 1/2 worker in internally-oriented industries per worker
in externally-oriented industries in a rural area to a ratio of 2 or more
in an urban area. The important point here is that from a forecast of
externally-oriented industry one has a basis for deriving the extent of
internally-oriented industry. In like fashion one can convert employment
to population by multiplying the employment by the number of persons In
the population per worker. This ratio will vary considerably for different
areas but averages about 3 persons per worker. Although changes in this
ratio over a period of time would be expected for various areas, it is
interesting to note that the Department of Labor estimates— of total
labor force participation rates for 1975 are almost unchanged from the
1955 level.
I/ Population and Labor Force Projections for the United States, 1960 to
1975, Bulletin No. 1242, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, June 1959.
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- 5 -
A simplified expression of this model would be as follows:
(Externally-oriented industry workers)^) B (Internally-oriented Industry
workers)
(Externally-oriented industry workers) + (Internally-oriented industry
workers) *» (Total workers)
(Total workers) x (K2) = (Population)
where: K^ is the ratio (for the study area and study period)
between workers in internally-oriented Industry to
those In externally-oriented industry, and K« is the
ratio of persons in the population per worker.
From this model, by assuming some average values for K^ and K_, one can
develop a useful rule-of-thumb for estimating the effect on population of
a new Industry in a community. Assuming that K^ B 1 and K^ ° 3, then
one new worker In an externally-oriented Industry would, on the average,
add one new worker in an internally-oriented industry, and would bring
about a total population increase of six persons, considering the families
of each of the workers.
In the construction of a model as the basis for a forecast of the
future economy, one of the major efforts would be the development of a fore-
cast of the total workers in externally-oriented industry. This can be done
by forecasting each of the major components of such industry. The forecast
of these components usually includes the consideration of productivity of
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- 6 -
labor. As mentioned earlier, other factors such as the length of the work
week might also affect the number of workers.
The measurement of productivity, for our purposes, Is mainly a
problem in estimating its relative change over time. The attached chart
has been prepared to illustrate the annual rate of change for selected
industries. The annual rates of change were based on two indicators of
output. In the first part of the chart physical units of output were used.
In the second part of the chart the output product was measured in constant
dollars. The wide range of annual change among the selected industries
should be noted.
The rate of annual change also varies considerably over time. A
hasty measure of this can be derived from examination of the U. S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics Index of total real private product per man-hour. For
the period 1950-1959 its average annual increase amounted to 2.8 per cent,
for the period 1947-1950 the annual increase was 4.5 per cent, and for
1941-1947 it was 1.0 per cent. Over the last 50 years the annual change
of this index has averaged 2.2 per cent.
From this discussion and from the chart it should be obvidus that
the productivity factor varies considerably depending upon the industry and
the time for which it is measured, and that this might have a considerable
effect on the economic model. However, rather than digress any further at
this time on the subject of constructing models of the economy, I have
included as Appendix I some further notes about the construction of a model
such as we are using in our studies of the Pacific Northwest.
With this background the question which prompted this paper can now
be examined. This question was initially stated as follows:
-------
Productivity Factors for Selected Industries In the Private Economy
Annual Rate of Change for Last Decade
ff
•H
i-l
g
Bituminous Coal
Copper
Iron
Cement
Glass Containers
Basic Steel
Food Canning, Preserving, Freezing
Paper and Pulp
Synthetic Fibers
Coke Group
Railroad Transportation
Telegraph
Total Nongovernment
Agriculture
Nonagrlculture
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Percent of Change, Compound Annual Rate
Source: Computed from statistics In: Economic Forces In the U. S. A.,
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1960,
pages 118-120.
-------
- 7 -
"Productivity increase factors--can they be standardized?" We have
broadened this question by considering other related growth factors as
well. Examination of the nature of the coefficients in the simple equa-
tion developed as a model of the economic base provides a logical answer
to our question about standardization. Because these coefficients are
developed from the study of areas with specific conditions they can gener-
ally only be applied to areas with similar conditions. Obviously, it would
be wrong to use national factors for a local situation unless the local
situation was completely typical of the Nation by having the same condi-
tions of Influence as the Nation. It is probably s&fe to say that national
growth factors should only be used as guides in making economic studies of
local areas. Growth factors, therefore, can only be standardized when the
individual study areas are identical with standard conditions. Because
this is not often likely, we must modify or develop growth factors to meet
the situation found in the study area.
Even though this point of view precludes the preparation of a single
set of factors to be plugged into all economic studies, I feel that the
approach or methodology involved in making economic studies is more
subject to standardization. Although it is not possible or desirable to
lay out a cook-book approach that will serve all needs, it should be
feasible for us to agree on the general principles and standards for such
studies and then to work cooperatively toward the improvement of techniques
and the sharing of basic information* Since I have taken the position
that standardization of growth factors is not generally feasible, there is
little opportunity for me to complete the use of my allotted time with the
-------
- 8 -
presentation of a tabulation of standard factors. In Lieu of this, I am
attaching as Appendix II a brief annotated bibliography of some Interesting
publications in this field which might provide some additional background
on procedures and sources of information.
In addition, I wish to make a few brief comments about some of the
influences to be considered in developing these various growth factors.
One of the Influences on the possible number of employees is the length of
the work week. One simple rationalization that could eliminate further
adjustments is to assume that the decrease of the work week will exactly
offset the increased productivity due to such factors as automation. It
should be considered, however, that any possible shortening of the work
week will likely be greatest in manufacturing industries and will probably
not occur at all in many industries, particularly small service industries.
The matter of productivity is of interest not only in regard to
employees, but also with respect to the output of the land resource. We
have witnessed in the last few decades some tremendous changes in the pro-
ductivity of farm land. We have also seen a considerable mechanization of
fanning processes. In many areas, however, this latter has not decreased
the number of persons employed on farms because there have been other
changes, such as Irrigation, which have resulted in more intensive use of
land and an increase in the labor requirement of this land.
Increased productivity from forest land will probably be one of the
dramatic changes to occur in the future economic base of the Pacific
Northwest. Experiments now underway Indicate that fertilization of forest
areas and the application of genetic principles to tree harvesting and
-------
- 9 -
reforestation will have a tremendous effect on the productivity of this
resource.
In conclusion, I would like to summarize some of the main areas to
be examined in this paper. These are enumerated as follows:
1. Economic base studies are facilitated by the use of models
which define the important relationships between segments of
the economy.
2. The model generally contains the growth factors expressed as
coefficients modifying the various basic statistics.
3. The growth factors can only be standardized when the individual
study areas meet standard conditions; therefore, standardiza-
tion of growth factors usually is not feasible.
4. Standardization of methodology is a feasible and worthwhile
goal.
-------
APPENDIX I
Notes on an Economic Model of Future Employment and Population in the
Willamette River Basin of Oregon.
A. Introductory Notes
1. The model described in this appendix is not intended to be a
complete description of the economy, but merely presents a pro-
cedure for analyzing employment. This procedure is particularly
important, however, because employment can be, and frequently is,
the common denominator for various parameters of the economy. Em-
ployment can also be utilized as the basis for both water use and
pollution contribution studies.
2. The application of the model to a basin requires some judgment as
to the size of the sub-area to be included. For convenience, the
area to be covered in one model study should be relatively homoge-
nous. It is planned in the Willamette Basin to make three model
studies to cover the upper, middle, and lower sections of the
Basin. Each of these sections has distinguishing economic charac-
teristics.
3. Comparisons of the model's results with forecasts prepared by
other means and with forecasts of the region or Nation are an
important part of the forecasting process. Such comparisons not
only provide a check on results, but where a significant difference
In results occurs, valuable insight into the economy is gained by
accounting for the difference.
-------
1-2
B. Components of Model
1. Externally-Oriented Industry Employment Forecast (Exf)
Expansion in each significant component of this category
will be forecast and the resulting employment computed, taking
into account possible changes in productivity of workers or changes
in the work week. The forecasts of resource-based industries will
recognize the limits imposed by the extent of the resource. Simi-
larly, the forecasts of market-oriented Industries will recognize
the limits imposed by marketing areas. Forecasts of other non-
resource-oriented industries will be mainly based on national
trends. The major industrial categories to be considered are:
Mining
Agriculture
Fisheries
Forest Activities
Manufacturing (by major classification).
Also to be considered in this category are those activities
generally thought of as internally-oriented, but which actually
are based to a significant degree on external influences. Examples
would be tourist facilities or transportation facilities which
would serve a much larger area than the local industry or market
would justify.
2. Internally-Oriented Industry Employment Forecast (Elf)
Employment in these industries will be computed by multi-
plying the externally-oriented industry employment (Exf) by K^,
the ratio of internally-oriented industry workers per externally-
-------
1-3
oriented industry worker. This ratio would be adjusted to reflect
the nature of the study area and the growth of this ratio over
time.
4. Total Employment Forecast (Etf)
The forecast of total employment is the sum of the forecasts
of each category of employment. This can be expressed as:
Etf " Exf + Eif or Etf =» Exf (1 -I- KI)
5. Population Forecast
The population is computed by multiplying total employment
by K2» the ratio of the number of persons in the population per
employee. This ratio would be adjusted to reflect such trends as
a growing number of households with more than one person employed.
The number of households and dwelling units would be forecast from
the population, recognizing the trends in family size, etc.
The model for the population forecast would be expressed as
follows:
P = (K2)
-------
APPENDIX II
Bibliography of Selected References on Economic Base Studies and Data
Sources.
MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL WATER REQUIREMENTS OF THE KANSAS RIVER BASIN.
Charles E. Staley. Center for Research in Business, The University
of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas. October 1960.
Has a discussion of models and an example of their use in
the systematic exploration of future industrial use of water.
Also has employee productivity data (including forecasts)
and discussion of this subject.
PROJECTIONS OF THE LABOR FORCE IN THE UNITED STATES 1955 to 1975.
Gertrude Bancroft, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C.
October 1956.
Has projections, by age and sex, of labor force and participa-
tion rates. Utilizes four sets of assumptions in projections.
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES OF WORKERS COVERED BY STATE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
LAWS AND UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION FOR FEDERAL EMPLOYEES BY INDUSTRY
AND STATE.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security, Washington,
D. C. Third Quarter 1959.
A handy source of recent statistics on "covered employment."
WESTERN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS, 1947-58.
Western Regional Report #6, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, San Francisco, California. August 1959.
Analysis of total employment trends by major employment
divisions, for eleven western states. Region is compared
with the United States.
EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKA.
Bureau of Employment Security, U. S. Department of Labor, Seattle,
Washington. January 1960.
An example of the periodic reports on employment prepared
by the Bureau of Employment Security. Has monthly employment
data, by major employment divisions, for Pacific Northwest
States and Alaska.
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II - 2
1961 PRUDENTIAL'S ECONOMIC FORECAST.
The Prudential Insurance Company of America, Planning and Development
Department (Tenth Edition). December 12, 1960.
Brief statement of the industrial and commercial economy, on
a national basis, with a forecast for 1961.
PRODUCTION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES THROUGH 1975.
Bonnar Brown and M. Janet Hansen. Stanford Research Institute,
Menlo Park, California. March 1957.
Contains projections of the national economy through 1975,
broken into 13 broad sectors. Projections include employ-
ment, gross product (based on Gross National Product), and
gross product per employee.
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY; PROSPECTUS FOR GROWTH TO 1965 AND 1975.
McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Inc., Department of Economics, 1958.
Contains projections of the national economy through 1975.
Projections Include population, productivity, work week,
investment, raw materials, power, consumer expenditures.
EMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND PRICE LEVELS. PART 1—THE AMERICAN ECONOMY:
PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS.
Hearings before the Joint Economic Committee, 86th Congress, Sec. 5(a)
of P. L. 304 (79th Congress). March 1959.
Analysis of national economy—mainly during last decade. Has
projections for 1964.
POSTWAR MOVEMENT OF PRICES AND WAGES IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES.
Harold M. Levinson and supplementary technical material to the staff
report of George W. Bleile and Thomas A. Wilson. Prepared in con-
nection with the Study of Employment, Growth, and Price Levels,
Joint Economic Committee, 86th Congress. January 30, 1960.
Analysis of manufacturing industries with respect to prices
and wages. On a national basis and mainly for 1947-1958
period.
PRICES, COSTS AND OUTPUT FOR THE POSTWAR DECADE: 1947-1957.
Charles L. Schultze, Committee for Economic Development. Library of
Congress Catalog Card Number: 60-8582.
An analysis (on a national basis by broad sectors of the
economy) of prices, costs, and output for 1947-1957.
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II - 3
REGIONAL TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY.
U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce,
Office of Business Economics, Washington, D. C. 1951.
Analysis of economic, population, and employment trends by
region and state for several decades ending in 1950.
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES, ITS PAST AND FUTURE.
Research and Policy Committee, Committee for Economic Development.
February 1958.
A general statement on national policy. Does not have detailed
statistics.
MANPOWER CHALLENGE OF THE 1960s.
U. S. Department of Labor, Washington, D. C. 1960.
A general statement on a national basis, of the manpower
requirements to 1970.
SOME PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION-HOUSEHOLDS-LABOR FORCE 1970. Part I.
Research Department, The Curtis Publishing Company, Philadelphia, Pa.
Release #241. August 1959.
A brief compilation of recent forecasts, on a national basis.
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT.
Transmitted to the Congress, January 20, 1960. U. S. Government
Printing Office, Washington: 1960.
Source of historical economic data on a national basis.
INDEXES OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIES, 1919 to 1958.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C.
April 1959.
A convenient collection of indexes (on a national basis) published
by The Bureau of Labor Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Vol. 6, No. 11.
May 1960. (Annual Supplement Issue).
Detailed employment data by industry, state, and metropolitan
area.
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II - 4
I960 SUPPLEMENT TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS, HISTORICAL AND DESCRIPTIVE
BACKGROUND.
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Committee Staff and
the Office of Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget. 86th
Congress, 2nd Session, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington.
Statistical data on a national basis.
DIVERSIFICATION OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FOR STATES AND METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
U. S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense Services Administra-
tion, Office of Area Development, Area Trend Series No. 5, June 1960.
Report presents an index of manufacturing diversification useful
as a research tool in economic base analysis.
AREA DEVELOPMENT BULLETIN.
U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Area Development.
A monthly bulletin describing studies and references on area
development activities.
MARKETING INFORMATION GUIDE.
U. S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense Services Administration.
A monthly bibliography of publications relating to markets,
economics, etc. Includes public, private, and foreign sources.
ECONOMIC FORCES IN THE U.S.A. IN FACTS AND FIGURES.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1960.
Contains selected economic data, mainly on a national basis.
Includes a chapter on economic output, which contains data
on productivity.
PRODUCTIVITY.
Relations News Letter by General Electric Company, August 1960.
A brief discussion of productivity with data illustrating
50 years of the national trend.
NATURAL RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH.
Harry S. Perloff and Lowdon Wingo, Jr., Resources for the Future, Inc.,
Reprint No. 24, December 1960.
An examination of the historical growth of various regions
from the standpoint of the influence of resources.
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NOTES
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NOTES
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NOTES
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LOCATION FACTORS
Charles H. Hajinian
Water Resources Section
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Public Health Service, Region VII
U. S. Department of Health, Education, & Welfare
Introduction
Industry in the United States is moving. Due to the competitive nature
of our enterprise system, a careful analysis must be made by any manufacturing
establishment before a new location is selected. In making this analysis many
factors must be evaluated, particularly those that vary significantly from area
to area. The objective is the determination of that area in which the product
can be manufactured and delivered to market at the lowest total cost.
There are many location factors to be considered in choosing a location
for an industrial plant. The factors may be classified as (A) essential,
(B) important, or (C) to be considered. The distinction between these cate-
gories is important. Essential requirements are those necessary if the plant
is to operate profitably. Important factors are those which will increase the
margin of profit but do not have the significance of the first category.
Factors to be considered add to the attractiveness of the site and may have
some bearing on profits.
There are 18 or more plant location factors recognized by authorities
in the field to be analyzed in choosing a location for an industrial plant.
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Arranged in alphabetical order these are:
Buildings
Climate
Distribution Facilities
Financial Help
Fuel
Labor
Laws and Regulations
Living Conditions
Market
Power
Raw Materials
Services (Equipment and Maintenance)
Site
Supplies
Taxes
Transportation
Waste Disposal
Water
The general locality is selected on the basis of the essential and
important requirements to an industry, such as the availability of raw
materials, markets and transportation facilities. Essentiality and importance
will vary from one industry to another. "Factors to be considered" may help to
determine the specific community within this general area. For example,
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pleasant living conditions are an advantage in locating most concerns. An
agreeable climate and recreational facilities are helpful in obtaining high-
class personnel. Some communities may have high land values and taxes, local
ordinances, or community attitudes which would discourage industry. Other
communities may offer inducements such as free or low-cost land, lower taxes,
and financial grants.
Before a building site is selected, an engineering study should be made.
This consists of a terrain study, including analysis of structural foundations
and drainage conditions. In regard to water supply, the ground and surface
water should be determined and the quality established.
Though it is hazardous to generalize on the locational economic factors
of industries comprising broad categories, nevertheless, the following attributes
may be accepted as characteristic.
This report will discuss locational factors of the following industrial
categories which have heavy water requirements: (1) pulp and paper; (2) petro-
leum refining; (3) chemicals; and (4) iron and steel. Each is examined
individually to determine its particular site requirements.
A study of the Texas Engineering Experiment Station illustrates the
application of locational factors by the first three of the above-mentioned
industries. This study is reviewed in the final portion of this paper.
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Pulp and Paper Industry
The pulp and paper category is one of the Largest and fastest growing
industries in the United States. In the four-year span, 1954-1958, value of
shipments increased from $3,769,700,000 to $4,769,772,000, or approximately 21
per cent.—' The United States per capita paper consumption increased from 58.0
pounds in 1899 to 200.6 pounds in 1930, to 328.5 pounds in 1950, and to 421.0
pounds in 1955.-/
Pulp and paper mills are located in the New England-New York area, the
Southeastern States, the West Coast and the Lake States. Essential factors
governing the location of these mills are the availability of fibrous raw
materials, an abundant supply of good water, good transportation facilities,
ample power supply or sources of power, and waste disposal capability.
Important factors are proximity to markets and an adequate labor supply.
Factors to be considered are general living conditions, local ordinances,
taxes, and the attitude of local authorities and the community.
Essential Requirements
The most important of all the factors listed is the availability of
fibrous raw materials. Before the introduction of wood pulp, paper manufacturers
used straw for wrapping paper, board and some printing papers, and rags for
writing papers. In 1880, of a total of 619,682 tons of raw materials, approxi-
mately 40 per cent was straw; 29 per cent, rags; 16 per cent, old paper; and
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15 per cent, manila stock. Rags were obtained from American cities which also
supplied the markets for finished products; thus, Massachusetts, New York,
Pennsylvania and Connecticut, in that order, led in the production of paper.—'
When wood pulp came into use, the industry spread farther into the New
England states, which were richly endowed with spruce and fir. As these
supplies became depleted, however, the wood pulp output shifted westward and
southward.
The South is becoming increasingly important to the pulp and paper
industry and contains 40 to 45 per cent of the commercial timber of the nation.—'
The southern pine grows to the optimum height in 25 or 35 years, which is two
or three times the rate of most northern species. It has very few limbs and
knots, and extremely long fibers, which make it desirable. The development of
the sulfate (kraft) process made the southern pine more usable for strong paper.
Until the late 1930's, attempts to use the southern pine for newsprint
were unsuccessful. Grinding stones were easily fouled; high resin and pitch
content fouled machines; and paper was marred by stains, holes and slime spots.
However, adaptations were made in grinding stones, while chemicals solved the
problems of "blue stain" (a fungus), slime, pitch and resin. Despite this,
newsprint production did not move south until the weak price situation of the
depression years was corrected. Even then, first attempts were financed in
part by newspaper publishers and in part by the Reconstruction Finance
Corporation.
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Although much of the Nation's paperboard is made of waste paper, an
increasing share in recent years has come from the kraft process. For any
given strength, kraft is extremely light and, for any given weight, it is
extremely strong. In 1925, only 20,700 tons of kraft paperboard were pro-
duced (0.7 per cent of the total); in 1956, the figure had risen to 5,971,000
tons (41.6 per cent of the total).—'
The following figures on total wood pulp capacity show that the increases
in output in the South are greater than elsewhere, although production in other
areas has not declined.
I/
Wood Pulp Production ~"
(Thousands of Tons)
Middle Atlantic Lake West South Total
Year
New England
1946
1947
1951
1952
1956
1957
1958
1,592
1,605
1,818
1,910
2,183
2,197
2,260
1,039
1,143
1,259
1,316
1,364
1,531
1,531
1,726
1,842
2,230
2,316
2,608
2,658
2,680
2,058
2,175
3,140
3,303
4,470
4,654
4,825
5,715
6,024
9,221
9,928
13,026
13,891
15,102
12,130
12,789
17,668
18,771
23,650
24,931
26,398
Throughout the pulp process, pulp is handled in water suspensions vary-
ing in consistency from 0.5 to 30 per cent solids, which means about 3 to 200
2 /
times as much water (by weight) as pulp.— The suspension fed to the forming
part of the machine usually contains one-half pound of pulp to 99.5 pounds of
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water. Water is recirculated and reused whenever possible, in order to recover
all the raw material (fibers) in suspension, but the over-all consumption may
be anywhere from 25,000 to 100,000 gallons per ton of finished paper.1' The
amount is dependent upon the type of paper produced and the process used.
The water should be clean, of good color (if white papers are being made),
low in chlorides and free of excessive amounts of dissolved solids. The supply
must be adequate the year round. Most mills rely on surface streams or lakes,
but some obtain their water from wells. Approximately 78 per cent of all pulp
and paper mills use surface water and 22 per cent use ground water.—'
In the North, streams have been used for carrying raw materials to the
pulp and paper mills. Today, this method has been replaced by trucks or rail,
as many mills find it necessary to go greater distances for their supply. In
the South, rail and trucks are commonly used for transporting the raw materials.
The reason why streams are not used is an interesting one - the southern pine
pulp wood is too heavy and sinks in water.
Barges carry a sizable proportion of raw materials and finished products.
Most of the larger mills are located on navigable waterways (e.g., Champion's
Pasadena, Texas, mill on the Houston Ship Canal; Bowaters Southern at the
confluence of the Hiwassee and Tennessee Rivers; Rome Kraft and Coosa River
on the Coosa-Alabama River system; Union Bag Camp on the Savannah; Macon Kraft
on the Ocmulgee).—'
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8
Pulp and paper mills depend heavily on transportation facilities. For
efficient operation, replacement machine parts must be delivered quickly. In
this case the time element is extremely vital. Therefore, the highway net and
rail connections are significant.
Fuel for power generation is an essential factor to the pulp and paper
industry. Many mills have their own turbines or generators to supply all or
part of the power needed. In fact, the industry ranks first among all industries
in generating power for its own use and seventh as a purchaser of power, and is
in third place (outranked only by chemicals and by iron and steel)as a consumer
of industrial power.. —
Chemical recovery is high in the paper industry. At present, recovery
systems are especially effective at the digester area, averaging around 90 per
cent. However, the waste disposal problem continues to be enormous and must be
solved if the industry is to grow. On several occasions, accidental releases
of cooking liquors have resulted in fish "kills" in receiving streams.—
Color is the most objectionable characteristic of most paper mill wastes.
To date no economically feasible method has been developed to remove color from
the large volumes of wash water which constitute the major portion of wastes
from this industry. Satisfactory disposal of these wastes can only be accom-
plished by dilution with color-free water, which means that pulp mills must
locate near rivers and streams with sufficiently large flows to accept and
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dilute the colored wastes to a point that they present no further problem.
The number of mill sites with water flows adequate to provide satisfactory
dilution of treated wastes is becoming scarce.
Important Factors
Proximity to market is an important factor, simply because paper and
paper products are low-value-per-ton products on which freight rates are quite
high. The general rule is that plants tend to locate where total transfer
costs of moving raw materials and products to market are lowest. Companies
depending on waste paper as a raw material have no problem in this respect,
since the source of supply and market are usually in the same general area.
An adequate labor supply is necessary to the industry, but is not
generally a problem. In pulp mills the number of workers per unit of product
is comparatively low and few skilled workers are required. When the announce-
ment was made that the Bowaters mill was to be built in Calhoun, Tennessee, in
1953, people from 200 miles away sent in applications. With about 800 jobs
available, the industrial relations manager received some 20,000 applications.—'
Factors to be Considered
Factors to be considered are general living conditions, local ordinances,
taxes and the attitude of the community and the local authorities.
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10
Petroleum Refining
In 1957^ the petroleum industry produced an average of 7,169,000 barrels
of crude oil daily.— The per capita consumption of petroleum in the United
States has increased from 7.5 barrels in 1929 to 10.1 barrels in 1939, to 14.1
barrels in 1950, and to 20.1 barrels in 1960.57 The following table shows that
the contribution of petroleum to the total energy consumed (as compared to other
energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and water power) has increased
spectacularly, especially between 1917 and 1927.
Energy Sources in the United States 5,6/
(In Per Cent of Total Consumption - BTU Basis)
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Water Power
* Data unavailable
Petroleum refineries are generally located at or near producing wells,
at trans-shipment points or in areas of heavy consumption. Essential require-
ments are markets, transportation, availability of raw materials, water, and
waste disposal capabilities. Important requirements are fuel and power, and
sites. Factors to be considered are living conditions, laws and taxes.
1917
82.8
9.8
4.0
3.4
1927
67.1
23.8
5.8
3.3
1937
54.0
32.7
9.7
3.6
1947
50.7
33.7
11.6
4.0
1957
*
40.5
*
*
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11
Essential Requirements
There is a slight tendency to erect new refineries where markets are
assured, due to the growing dependence on crude imports. The vast system of
pipelines for transporting crude oils has facilitated the market location as
evidenced by petroleum refining districts on the Great Lakes between Chicago
and Cleveland, and on the Atlantic Coast between Baltimore and New York, rather
than near the major oil fields.
Transportation costs of crude oil and refined products play an important
part in the profitability of refining operations. Crude oil is transported
from the oil fields to the refineries by pipelines, tankers, tank cars or
trucks. Normally the cheapest mode is by oil tanker; it costs two and one-half
cents to transport one barrel of crude oil 100 miles.—' Consequently, many
refineries have located in coastal areas accessible to tanker transportation
for movements of either crude oil or finished products, including foreign imports.
About 75 per cent of the crude oil received at refineries is transported
by pipeline at some time. In 1958, the United States had a pipeline network
in excess of 160,000 miles serving the petroleum industry. Costs of overland
transportation by pipeline vary, but generally they average about three cents
or more per barrel of crude oil per hundred miles.§/
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12
Rail and truck facilities are not competitive with tankers or pipelines.
These forms are used to a limited extent in new fields where no pipelines are
available or in small fields where production volumes do not justify pipeline
construction.
Petroleum refineries in the past have often located near major oil fields,
Although some refineries may still do so, it is becoming less.common, since it
becomes uneconomical when production falls off at any single field.
An adequate water supply is essential to the location of a petroleum
refinery. The conversion of gases into products requires from 0.8 to 44.5
gallons of water for each gallon of crude oil processed. Since the breaking
up of crude oil into its products is a conversion of high thermal efficiency,
almost 97 per cent of the water is used for cooling.—'
Adequate waste disposal facilities are a necessity. During the proces-
sing of the crude oil, the effluent is run through settling ponds or tanks to
collect waste oil and avoid pollution. If the effluent has accumulated harmful
chemicals, it may also be treated to eliminate them. If the water supply is
limited, water may be retained and cooled in ponds or towers for reuse.
Important Factors
The rates of electrical power may be significant. A refinery requiring
a great amount of power may find it more economical to build its own power
plant than to purchase utility company power.
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13
Refinery equipment is extremely large and heavy. Therefore, it is very
important that the soil in any selected location be able to support exception-
ally heavy loads.
Factors to be Considered
Factors to be considered are living conditions, laws and taxes.
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14
Chemical Industry
The importance of the chemical industry can best be illustrated by the
increasing value of sales of chemical and allied products from 1939 to 1958.—'
In 1939 the sales were $4,339,000,000 and increased at a steady rate to
$23,219,000,000 in 1958. The value added by manufacture from 1939 to 1957
increased from $1,818,941,000 to $12,116,000,000. The dynamic growth of this
industry has always been one of its outstanding features.2/
The chemical industry is broken up into two branches, organic and in-
organic. Organic chemicals are defined as compounds which, like plant and
animal matter, contain the very prevalent carbon atom. These are derived from
residues of prehistoric life, such as coal, petroleum and natural gas, or from
the present day materials of life, such as agricultural products. More than
2,500 chemical products come from petroleum and natural gas alone. Chemicals
from these two products accounted for around 57 per cent of the dollar value of
all U.S. chemicals in 1959. More than half of them ended up in such products
as fibers, plastics, fertilizers, elastomers and synthetic rubber. The organic
chemicals account for the largest number of the industry's products.—'
Compounds that do not contain the carbon atom, but are obtained from
such things as atmospheric gases, water and minerals, are inorganic compounds.
For example, salt is used to produce chlorine, caustic soda, bleaches and soda
ash; sulfur is used for sulfuric acid; and nitrogen and oxygen are used for
ammonia, nitric acid and oxygen production.
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15
In general, location factors follow the same pattern for all companies
producing basic chemcials. For the purpose of this report the two divisions
will be treated as one unit, with greater emphasis on the petrochemical industry,
The geographic location of a chemical plant depends largely on the
essential factors: availability of raw materials; low-cost fuel and power;
inexpensive transportation facilities; proximity to markets; water and waste
disposal capabilities; and the availability of good quality labor. An important
factor is proximity to other supplies and maintenance service. Factors to be
considered are regulatory laws and practices, taxes, and living conditions.
Essential Requirements
Chemical manufacturers use a variety of raw materials, such as coal,
petroleum, air, water and minerals. The minerals include such materials as
sulfur, salts, sand, clay, lead, zinc, copper, iron, boron and aluminum.
Plants which require sea water must naturally locate on the coast. The abun-
dance of coal makes the West Virginia-Pennsylvania area particularly desirable
for some organic chemical producers, while the abundance of petroleum makes
the Gulf Coast extremely desirable for the petrochemical industry. Sulfur is
obtained from underground deposits in Texas and Louisiana; salt from brine
wells and mines in Michigan, New York, Ohio, Louisiana and Texas, as well as
from solar evaporation of sea water in California and from Great Salt Lake,
Utah; phosphate rock from Florida, Tennessee and the Rocky Mountains; and
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16
potash from New Mexico, California and Utah. The following list of the top
ten states in chemical construction illustrates the importance of the avail-
ability of raw materials to the petrochemical industry.
TOP TEN STATES IN CHEMICAL CONSTRUCTION
(1958 MCA Construction Survey)
(In Thousands)
Texas $662,323
Louisiana 473,200
California 144,710
Tennessee 142,576
West Virginia 136,650
Ohio 134,900
Pennsylvania 127,190
New Jersey 117,114
Illinois 114,850
Florida 113,625
The availability of low-cost and abundant fuel and power is influential
in locating a chemical plant. Many have located in certain areas where raw
materials, such as coal, petroleum and natural gas are present, and these raw
materials can also be used as inexpensive sources of fuel and power.
Low-cost transportation facilities are important to the chemical industry.
The lack of inexpensive modes of transportation has hindered the establishment
of chemical plants in some areas. The cost of transporting raw materials and
the finished product must be compared when determining a suitable location. If
the packaged product has a higher freight rate, it is probably more economical
to locate near the market and ship raw materials.
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17
In 1954 the chemical industry, one of the Nation's major water-using
industries, used 24 per cent of the total industrial water intake, or 2,827
billion gallons.—' The greater percentage of this water is used for cooling.
To produce 100 pounds of ascorbic acid, for example, requires 85,000 gallons
of water; to produce 100 pounds of bromine requires 250,000 gallons of water.
This stresses the need for an adequate water supply in the selection of a
2/
chemical site.—'
The number of suitable sites with good quality water supplies is de-
creasing, because in many instances municipal and industrial wastes receive
inadequate treatment prior to discharge and cause serious degradation of
receiving streams into which they are released. Since these streams are often
the only source of water for potential industrial development downstream, the
number of industries that can use the lower quality water is limited. Closer
attention is being focused on this situation. More stringent laws are being
passed and stricter enforcement of existing legislation is resulting in the
improvement of conditions that have plagued entire river basins for decades.
New industrial plants are active in the development of the most advanced equip-
ment for pollution abatement or avoidance procedures. In some areas, strict
waste disposal regulations are imposed on chemical plants. This is especially
true on the Ohio River from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati; the Delaware River from
Phillipsburg to the Delaware Bay; the Susquehanna River from Harrisburg to
Chesapeake Bay; Lake Erie near Cleveland; and the Houston Ship Canal.
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18
As in the petroleum industry, markets are becoming increasingly important,
Nearness to markets and supplies are especially important if water transporta-
tion is unavailable.
Many skilled and technical workers are needed in the chemical industry.
Of a total of 846,400 employees in May 1959, over 60 per cent are production
workers, many of whom are highly skilled. Administrative, scientific, sales
and executive positions make up the remainder. The largest part of the plant
workers are process workers, who operate chemical and mechanical equipment.
Because of the highly technical and varied nature of the industry's operations
and products, it is often necessary for employees in administrative, purchasing,
sales or legal capacities to have scientific or engineering backgrounds.—'
Important Factors
Nearness to supplies and maintenance services are important in selecting
a location. The direction of prevailing winds, which may carry objectionable
odors to the surrounding areas, must certainly be appraised in this type of
operation.
Factors to be Considered
Factors to be considered include land values, local ordinances, zoning,
homes for workers and community attitudes.
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19
Iron and Steel Industry
The iron and steel industry in the United States is basic to the Nation's
economy and to its standard of living. Spreading to all four corners of the
country, steel producing facilities are located in 31 states. They are con-
centrated in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois, which have 27 per cent,
20 per cent, 12 per cent and 9 per cent of the Nation's output, respectively.
2/
The others have considerably less.—7
The essential requirements for this industry are the availability of
raw materials, markets, transportation, water, fuel, waste disposal, and labor.
Important requirements are maintenance and service facilities. Factors to be
considered are living conditions, taxes, and local laws,.
Essential Requirements
Of the essential requirements, the availability of raw materials,
particularly ore, coal and limestone, has probably played the most important
part in determining the steel-making centers of the United States.
For every ton of pig iron produced, three to four tons of raw materials
are needed. High quality iron ore deposits are found in northern Minnesota and
Michigan. The value of iron ore extraction in Minnesota ranged between
$350,000,000 and $550,000,000 annually between 1951 and 1957.£/ In Michigan,
the value ranged between $75,000,000 and $105,000,000 annually during the same
period3J Ninety per cent of all the coal mined in the United States is mined
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20
in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Rich limestone deposits are found in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Because
of the geographical separation of these areas, one or more of the raw materials
must be transported by rail, water, or both. Since coal is lighter and takes
up more room than iron ore, it is generally more economical to locate mills
closer to the coal supplies than to the iron ore mines, even though the quantity
of iron ore required in the process is greater than the coal. However, in some
cases coal is moved to the ore, and in others both are moved to a junction
point. Before the utilization of electric power in the industry, steel-making
facilities also depended on the coal fields as a source of power.
Many steel plants, as previously mentioned, have concentrated in certain
parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia.
The raw materials are relatively accessible from these areas, since the Great
Lakes provide a convenient means of transportation.
The proximity of steel-producing centers to the market is another
essential factor. A densely populated territory or a general industrial area
is often a good location since scrap iron, which can be used as a raw material,
and markets are both available. Plants located on the Atlantic Coast can
readily receive foreign iron ore supplies from Venezuela and Labrador-Quebec
and in turn can supply the Eastern market with steel and steel products.
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21
The presence of raw materials and the nearness of markets have led to
the establishment of steel mills in the Birmingham, Alabama, region. This area
has substantial deposits of iron ore, coal and limestone, which are closer
together than in any other area of the United States. Lone Star Steel located
in Dangerfield, Texas, because this area has deposits of iron ore and limestone
and transports coal from nearby Oklahoma. Located in one of the richest oil
fields in the world, Lone Star produces iron casings, drills and other related
products to supply the available market.—'
Economical transportation is an essential requirement to this industry.
Its raw materials, and most of its products, have a low unit value in proportion
to their weight. Without low-cost convenient transportation, production costs
would rise enormously and make steel a less economical product.
The industry transports its finished product by rail, truck or water.
Water transportation, however, is used whenever possible, as it is most
economical.
Water is extremely important to the iron and steel industry. It is used
in a number of ways, particularly for cooling blast furnaces. A furnace with
a capacity of 1,000 tons of iron a day uses from 1,400 to 65,000 gallons of
water in 24 hours.2.' Approximately 80 per cent of the water used is reused,
2 /
and only leakage and evaporation losses of some 15 per cent must be made up.—'
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22
Most types of fuel, including coal, coke, gases, fuel oil, natural gas
and electricity, are used in steel production. However, within the last ten
years the industry has become one of the country's top consumers of electricity.
Stream pollution arising from the extensive operations of the iron and
steel industries has produced a need for adequate waste disposal capabilities.
The most objectionable characteristic of the wastes is the suspended solids,
which are mainly particles of ore and coke. Some of these solids settle readily
and form a coating on the bottom of the lake or river. These deposits are
destructive to bottom organisms which are an important source of fish foods.
The suspended solids also add a deep gray or black appearance to the water,
making it unsatisfactory for recreational uses and aesthetic conditions.—'
Phenols and cyanides may also be present in the wastes. These chemicals
not only are toxic to aquatic life, but can be a menace to public water supplies
and bathing facilities. Therefore, a suitable means for disposing of waste
water from iron and steel mills is a necessity.—'
Steel mills require the service of men skilled not only in steel-making
processes, but in many other lines. About 1,200 separate and distinct jobs are
2/
to be found in the plants and offices of the iron and steel industries.—
Important Factors
Maintenance and service facilities are important to this industry.
Factors to be Considered
Living conditions, taxes and local laws are factors to be considered.
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23
Plant Location Factors in Texas
The significance of the many factors which influence the location of
new plants, mills and factories in Texas has been brought out by the Texas
Engineering Experiment Station in a report entitled An Evaluation of Plant
Location Factors in Texas.
Questionnaires were sent to 850 manufacturers throughout the State.
These manufacturers were to indicate, in order of importance, the five basic
reasons for the location of their establishments. Three hundred and fifty
questionnaires were selected and classified according to the Standard
Industrial Classification List into 14 groups. The industrial groups, number
of returns in each group, and percentage of total in the State are shown below.
Iron and steel firms were omitted in this survey.
No. of Per Cent of
Industry Group^ Returns Total in State
1. Food & kindred products 38 3.5
2. Textile mill products 10 17.2
3. Apparel products 22 7.7
4. Nonapparel textile products 8 12.9
5. Lumber and wood products (except furniture) 22 3.3
6. Furniture and fixtures 19 8.7
7. Paper products 13 27.0
8. Chemicals and allied products 41 15.1
9. Petroleum products 11 11.7
10. Rubber products 13 81.2
11. Stone, glass and clay products 28 13.3
12. Fabricated metals (except machinery and
transportation equipment) 66 25.5
13. Machinery (except electrical) 31 8.7
14. Miscellaneous 28 21.2
TOTAL 75U "778"
-------
24
To obtain the relative weight, each locational factor was tabulated
according to the position assigned it by the respondent firms. A factor in
first position was given a value of five; those in following positions were
given values of four, three, two and one, respectively.
Results of the survey are shown in the following figures by industrial
categories.
The paper and paper products industries in Texas are primarily concerned
with markets, and labor and distribution facilities. See Figure 1. Since the
pulp industries are not considered, raw materials, transportation and water are
rated lower than they would normally be in the pulp and paper industry.
The importance of raw materials, transportation and markets is revealed
in the eleven returns of the petroleum products industry. See Figure 2.
The chemical industry has developed in Texas in recent years because of
the availability of raw materials, presence of a growing market and good trans-
portation facilities. See Figure 3.
It is apparent that when all industries of Texas are considered, market,
labor and raw materials are the three most important location factors. Water
is of minor importance in the location of an industry within this State.
Waste disposal capabilities was not on the list of factors. See Figure 4.
-------
25
CONCLUSIONS
1. Economic theory of industrial location is based on the
maximization of the investment situation as determined
by the profit margin; that is, achievement of the widest
spread possible between cost and income or revenue.
2. Seldom does one factor alone play the decisive part in
determining a plant location. A combination of factors
which will bring the greatest monetary returns will govern
the choice of the site.
3. Heavy water-using industries are generally located near
their source of raw materials, because their kind of
process generally involves bulky and costly-to-move raw
materials, as compared to the finished products.
4. An adequate water supply is essential for all industries,
but it is only when all other factors are equal among
several locations that abundant and cheap water plays
a decisive role in industrial location. Factors such
as the availability of raw materials, proximity to
markets and inexpensive transportation must be present
in conjunction with the water or the site is infeasible.
-------
26
5. Heavy water use means large volumes of liquid waste with
attendant problems of satisfactory disposal. Sites with
adequate waste disposal capabilities for the heavy water-
using industries are becoming scarce. With strict regula-
tions against pollution, the problem is still present.
Therefore, waste disposal is a significant factor in
locating an industry.
-------
£
i
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10
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LOCATION FACTORS IN THE PAPER PRODUCTS INDUSTRY
FIGURE I
-------
N
CO
s
s
1ft
oc
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1*3
!>ft
c\>
5
O
P
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1
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s
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1
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LOCATION FACTORS IN THE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS INDUSTRY
FIGURE 2
-------
e
1
Sa 15
S
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Ax
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1
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O5 t>^
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LOCATION FACTORS IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
FIGURE 3
-------
25
20
J2
ki
S }5
i
10
I
1
p
//
- //
\
&
\
'//
tt
1
f
F
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<$
'/.
'//.
\
/
?7.
y/.
\
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/V\ , \/y »^. . jrjp **? JQ ^^ ^ ^r
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LOCATION FACTORS IN TEXAS INDUSTRIES
FIGURE 4
-------
27
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Unpublished Data, I. J. Pickl, Professor of Economics,
Southern Methodist University.
2. Albert S. Carlson, Economic Geography of Industrial
Materials. New York, Reinhard Publishing Corp., 1956.
3. Gilbert F. White, Industrial Water Use. A Review.
American Geographical Society, 1960.
4. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census,
Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1960.
5. Minerals Yearbook. Vol. Ill, "Area Reports," U. S.
Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines, 1950-1958.
6. Edward L. Allen, Economics of American Manufacturing.
New York, Henry Holt and Company, 1952.
7. Unpublished Data, Maritime Administration, U. S. Depart-
ment of Commerce, Washington, D. C.
8. Seeley W. Mudd Series, Economics of the Mineral Industries.
New York, The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical,
and Petroleum Engineers, Inc., 1959.
9. The Chemical Industry Fact Book. Fourth Edition, Washing-
ton, D. C., Manufacturing Chemists' Association, Inc.,
1960-1961.
10. Unpublished Data, C. A. Webster, Public Relations Depart-
ment, Lone Star Steel Company, Dallas, Texas.
11. Blast Furnaces. "An Industrial Waste Guide to the Blast
Furnace Department of the Steel Industry," Federal
Security Agency, Public Health Service, Cincinnati, Ohio,
1951.
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
PROJECTING WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE BOONDOCKS
Walter R. Hager
Water Resources Section
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Public Health Service, Region VII
U. S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare
Much has been said about projections of growth and water requirements
for the heavily populated, highly industrialized portions of our Nation - the
SMAs (Standard Metropolitan Areas), while little emphasis has been given to
the many small cities, towns, and villages outside of the SMAs. The interven-
ing areas served by these less populous municipalities are, after all, the
largest part of the Nation in terms of land area. Furthermore, approximately
38 per cent of our population lives and works outside of the 209 SMAs - out in
the boondocks.
What method has been used in projecting population, manufacturing and water
demand?
To date, projections for population have been founded upon growth trends
established over the years, while industrial change has been predicated upon
evaluation of manufacturing employment conditions. Water demands for the
metropolitan areas can be and are projected through statistical analyses of
population growth trends and employment patterns.
-------
Why not apply this method for population, employment and manufacturing, and
water demand projections of non-metropolitan areas?
In contrast to the metropolitan areas' steady growth, many small cities
and towns have experienced sharp declines in population, even to going out of
existence; while others have just stood still. In the latter case, it seems
that every time someone comes to town, someone also leaves. Still, other areas
grow and expand after many years of little change in population or industrial
complexion. This situation with respect to the outlying areas limits the use
of a statistical analysis method, since population trends are not clearly
defined. Employment and manufacturing patterns seem to be almost as uninterpret-
able. Since many of our small towns have just recently gained industries,
projections would have to be based upon only a smattering of data. The problem
of sketchy municipal water use data is also a factor.
How much municipal water demand can be expected to develop for even the largest
of the towns in the boondocks?
The municipal systems serving the major communities in the non-metropolitan
areas seldom have an average (yearly) demand above 6 to 8 mgd (based on maximum
population of 50,000).
-------
This seems like a drop in the bucket compared to the projected Dallas-Tarrant
County 2010 demand of 1502 mgd. Are there other significant factors?
Yes, one industry of the principal water using class can completely
overshadow municipal water requirements for the area in which it is located.
Further, these municipalities are, more often than not, located some distance
from a major watercourse. This can create waste disposal problems, since large
industrial water requirements may result in large quantities of industrial
wastes without a suitable point of discharge. This aspect of water use is all
too frequently overlooked.
If the statistic analysis and ratio of employment growth methods of population
projection are not entirely applicable for the outlying area, what approach can
be used?
Certainly, the population requires a means of livelihood. The industries
which provide employment generally develop, prosper, and grow as a result of .
many factors. While these factors vary from one type of industry to another,
most fall into one of three broad categories — market oriented, labor oriented,
or resource oriented. All of these major factors are essential to every
industrial operation.
-------
How do these affect development of outlying areas?
Since the outlying areas are by comparison to SMAs sparsely populated
markets, most of the strictly market-oriented industries seem to locate in or
near the big market centers, the SMAs. The second factor, labor, may or may
not favor a particular region. But almost without exception, the metropolitan
areas have a great advantage over the boondocks in supplying industries' demand
for labor.
The third factor, resources, is the key to most of the projected municipal
and industrial water requirements for the outlying areas. An inventory of an
area's or region's resources will serve as a guide to future developments.
These resources can be divided into two groups - depletive and non-depletive.
Depletive resources play an important role in a region's short-term
(or even long-term, depending upon the reserves and operation) development
though they may not noticeably affect water requirements. These resources are
mined, i. e.,are not regenerative, and include petroleum, natural gas, natural-
gas liquids, ooal, sand and gravel to name only a few.
Non-depletive resources are found throughout our Nation and are
renewable. These include soil, forests, climate (temperature, growing season,
etc.), and water. Agriculture is the backbone of the outlying areas, providing
an economic base for many small towns. As the local agricultural economy goes,
so goes theirs.
-------
An inventory of resources and existing utilization, population, and
employment can be analyzed and correlated to establish future trends in pro-
duction, employment, and water requirements.
Which resources can affect employment and population growth, and, more
important, will require significant quantities of water for utilization?
It is generally true that when raw materials are perishable or bulky or
have a high degree of weight loss in processing, the initial step of the manu-
facturing process is carried out close to the raw material source. There is
no question that this factor is of major importance in projecting industrial
development and expansion in outlying areas. There is hardly a major water
using industry in the non-metropolitan area that is not directly based on
local agriculture, forestry or mineral raw materials. The fact is, existence
of and access to an abundance of perishable, bulky, or low yield raw materials
*
not only have been basic to the growth of manufacturing in the boondocks, but
will determine the direction of industrial development and to some degree its
rate of growth.
While the extraction and manufacture of goods from raw materials are
significant in projecting employment and population trends, they do not
necessarily influence water requirements. There are, however, two industrial
classifications which are heavy water users and have large segments which are
invariably located outside of SMA.S - Food and Beverage (20) and Pulp and
Paper (26).
-------
Considering the pulp and paper products category, first, (since pulp mills are
found in all Public Health Service regions, see Map A) - where does water fit
into this manufacturing process?
The largest part of this industry's water demand is associated directly
with the production of wood pulp from bolts of cordwood. This substantial
water use is further a part of the paper-making process. Once the paper is
made, there is little water required for conversion of the paper (or paperboard)
to cups, plates, boxes, bags, and the numerous useful items fabricated from
paper.
Fulpwood is a resource which is both bulky and has quite a loss in the
initial processing stage. Therefore, most pulp mills are located in or near
forests. Since water is the conveying medium for paper making, the pulp is
more often than not passed right on to a paper mill, see Figures 1 and 2.
(When this is done it is called an integrated pulp and paper mill.)
HQw__c_an regional production for this industry be projected?
The amount of pulp and paper production which an area will support is a
function of yield from the forests in the region. For example, the forests
of southern Arkansas with good management can produce about one cord per acre
per year without depletion. This production rate is based on pine rather than
hardwoods (which are slower growing). The kraft paper industry in the South
is built and expanding on this resource. Presently, the yield in this area is
but half of this amount since there is little or no management practiced on
-------
PAGE NOT
AVAILABLE
DIGITALLY
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PULP
WHITE
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FIGURE 2
Schematic diagram of a multi-cylinder paperboard machine. The basic
difference between this and a Fourdrinier machine is the manner in
which the web (paperboard) is formed.
Felt and drying
rolls are similar
to those used
with a
Fourdrinier
machine
(TO STOCK PREPARATION)
Stock preparation with beaters,Jordan, stock chest and consistency
regulators is similar to that used with Fourdrinier paper machines.
(See Fig.l)
HEAD
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PRESS FELT
FIGURE 1
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most of the acreage, in private ownership. However, reserves are being built
and, as the market for pulpwood expands, expectations are that increased
efficiency will materialize.
An additional factor in projecting pulp and paper production is the
portion of the timber which will go into lumber and other wood products. Pro-
jection for lumber utilization (and employment) should be tied in with the
pulp production projections. Currently, the split is about 50-50 in the forests
of Region VII. Since the type of timber and complexion of the forest products
industry vary from region to region and even within a region, each project area
should be studied and projected on its own merits. Cordwood production can
then be converted to product output by determining the wood - product ratio.
In southwestern Arkansas, the kraft process predominates with a present ratio
of about 1.75 cords per ton of product.
Can these timber and production data be translated into water demand projections?
Water requirements for the pulp and paper industry's development can be
projected on a gallons per ton of production basis. The predominant process
Used to produce pulp (and paper) from the type of pulpwood available in the
area can be studied to provide the projected water requirement. Although the'
paper-making process is constantly being improved, there do not ap'pea't to' be
many ways of water saving beyond those now in use. The majority1 o'f the' require-
ments are for conveying and washing the fiber sto'ck. As the titimb'er o'f conveying
steps and washings increases, so does the amount of water required. Groundwood
pulp requites the least; soda pulp the' mo'st.
-------
8
How do the water quality requirements for pulp and paper production compare to
the Public Health Service drinking water standards?
Water quality requirements for pulp and paper production are more
restrictive in many respects, particularly chlorides and other corrosive elements,
iron, manganese, hardness, turbidity, and color content. Until recently, the
mills in this region predominantly used ground water, but production expansion
programs have resulted in switches to high quality surface supplies.
At this point, consideration must be given to the effect the waste loading
from this industrial activity will have on the basin downstream. Will the
wastes resulting from this use of water over-load the receiving stream's
waste assimilating capacity even after 90 per cent of the B.O.D. has been
removed?
Although the pulp and paper industry requires an extremely high quality
of water for production, the wastes produced by its operations are perhaps the
most difficult to handle in terms of quantity and pollutional characteristics.
An average raw waste has a population equivalent of 300 per ton of production
(50# B.O.D./ton). Although, each mill has a distinctive waste characteristic,
a study of the region's paper making processes will provide an insight into
projected waste production founded on the previously developed data. Return
flows are usually on the order of 90 per cent of raw water requirements.
-------
Much research has been conducted by the industry on these wastes and
treatment methods have been developed with appropriate engineering guides.
There is one characteristic, however, which at present defies economically
feasible removal from kraft wastes - color. The level of concentration for
this characteristic of kraft waste varies upward from 250 color units. This
color is derived from the extraction of lignins and tannins (in the pulping
process) and is chemically similar to swamp drainage. This color rules out
most municipal and industrial reuse (except cooling water) at this level, and
is aesthetically objectionable. Since biological waste treatment will not
reduce color, the receiving stream must provide enough dilution to reduce the
color to a reasonable level (say 50 to 75). Thus, the waste disposal aspect of
pulp and paper making may be more of a controlling factor than water supply.
As the result of research by the pulp and paper industry several
processes for removal of color from kraft mill effluent have been developed
and tested in pilot plants. All were found to have serious drawbacks.
Presently a color removal process incorporated in the causticizing flow sheet,
based upon lime recovery, is being tested on a plant scale. Although reports
indicate some bugs in the process, the feeling of those working with the
process is that a solution to the color removal problem can be found.
-------
10
Everything up to this point has turned on projected water requirements for
production. Are there other uses for these data?
These projections can be related to employment and population projections
for the region under consideration. Paper mill towns in the boondocks have, to
date, tended to be dominated by this one industry. Often related operations
take root adjacent to the mill, but these do not exert a significant water
demand although providing employment. The employment to population ratio can
be established and projections made accordingly.
In this way, timber resources, product demand, production, industrial
water requirements, employment, municipal population, municipal water require-
ments, and waste loadings can be tied together, compared with national and
regional factors, and projected as required.
We are all aware that these figures will not make these projections work
out in themselves, but they appear to be the controlling factors in development
of this industry with its associated employment and effect on population in
outlying areas to date.
The other industrial segment which can have a great impact on water
requirements in the outlying areas is classified under food and beverages -
more particularly food processing and canning.
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11
What role does water play in the canning and food processing industry?
This industry's operation is similar to that of the pulp and paper
industry. The majority of the water requirements are for conveying and washing
of the raw materials and product - fruits and vegetables. The operation is
seasonal, but large quantities are required during this relatively short time.
On what basis can water requirements be projected?
The approach for projecting production, employment, etc. can parallel
that of the pulp and paper industry. Projections can be founded on productivity
of the soil and type of crop best suited to local conditions. The production
and employment pattern for the agricultural industry will be discussed by
Bill Eichberger. Projected product demands and production figures can be
converted to area output in tons or cases or some other convenient unit of
measure. While we do not have much data on water requirements, we do have data
on waste quantities. Approximately 95 per cent of the water requirement in this
industry is released as waste. Table 1 illustrates typical quantities and
characteristics encountered. Local conditions may indicate variation from these
amounts. As with pulp and paper, employment can be tied to Output and projected
accordingly. However, this employment pattern is complicated by the fact that
this industry is seasonal and will probably not support as much service -
related employment, and population per employee as pulp and paper. Details
will vary somewhat with locale^ however, projections can be made on this basis.
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12
TABLE 1. VOLUME AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CANNERY WASTES
(From Rudolf's Industrial Wastes)
Product
Volume Per Case
(Gals)
5-Day BOD
(ppm)
Suspended Solids
(ppm)
Apples, sauce
Apricots
Asparagus
Beans, green or wax
Beans, lima
Beans, baked
Beets
Carrots
Corn, cream style
Corn, whole kernel
Cherries, sour
Grapefruit
Mushrooms
Peaches
Pears
Peas
Potatoes, sweet
Potatoes, white
Pumpkin
Sauerkraut
Spinach
Tomatoes, whole
Tomatoes, juice or products
57-80
70
26-44
50-257
35
27-65
23
24
25-70
12-40
5-56
6,600*
1,300-2,600*
1,300*
14-56
3,500*
20-42
3
160
3-15
38-100
1,685-3,453
200-1,020
100
160-600
189-450
925-1,440
1,580-5,480
520-3,030
623
1,123-6,025
700-2,100
310-2,000
76-390
1,350
2,250-4,700
380-4,700
295
200-2,900
2,850-6,875
6,300
280-730
570-4,000
178-3,880
260
30
60-85
422
225
740-2,188
1,830
302
300-4,000
20-605
170-287
50-242
600
1,200-6,700
272-400
610
990-1,180
785-3,500
630
90-580
190-2,000
170-1,168
* per ton
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13
Is the food processing industry's waste disposal situation also like that of
the pulp and paper industry?
Waste disposal for the canning industry poses a different sort of
problem than that encountered in pulp and paper industry projections. In most
cases, water use and waste production are seasonal with low stream flows and
high waste production coinciding. Waste treatment methods have been worked
out. However, due to the concentration and quantity of the wastes produced,
careful analysis of the ratio of waste flow to stream flow are in order if
stream quality is to be maintained downstream from the demand centers.
Compilation of the data outlined will provide a basis for projecting
water requirements in the boondocks. Special situations do exist; however,
the general approach outlined here should provide a basis for projecting pro-
duction, employment, water requirements and waste loads for those industries
and areas. The technique explored here for a specific part of our work has
been used in various forms with an array of parameters for many years in
"Water Requirements Survey" work in the southwest.
Are there any problems associated with this approach to water requirement
projections for the boondocks?
Although this technique will yield a fairly good projection of areal
water requirements in the long run, it dues not furnish a clue as to when and
where this demand will develop. Pulp and paper water demands can go from
nothing to 50 mgd with the construction of just one big mill or it could
develop in medium sized increments. Local management may be able to furnish
-------
14
the answer; however, they are prone to keep long range plans to themselves
for competitive reasons. A local management interview will not be possible
when no mill now exists in the project study area having a projected potential.
In summary, on what bases can water requirements for an outlying area be
projected?
There are 4 general steps which can be used to project water requirements
for the boondocks —
(1) The area's resource inventory holds the key to its growth and
development.
(2) The area's water using resource oriented industry (or industries)
play a vital role in determining future water requirements. Pulp
and paper production and food processing are outstanding examples
of this type of industry. Water requirements can be projected
directly for these industries.
(3) Employment and population patterns can be founded on the resource
base for relatively remote communities. Municipal water demands
can be projected proportionate to population to be served.
(4) Waste loadings to be released can be predicated on industrial
water use and municipal water demand.
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15
What one factor will have more effect on projected water requirements for the
boondocks than any other?
Insofar as projections of water requirements for the boondocks are
concerned, it would appear that, in Region VII, waste disposal (stream
quality maintenance) will be more of a controlling factor than any other. How
about your area?
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
by Dr. Willis G. Eichberger, Economist,
Water Supply and Pollution Control,
Public Health Service, Region IV
AGRICULTURE - EFFECTS ON WATER DEMANDS
INTRODUCTION
As long as water is in abundant supply to meet the demands of all water
uses or purposes, demand for water presents no problem. It is only when
supply is small relative to demand, so that competitive alternatives exist,
that concern over use of water occurs. In many, and probably most, parts
of the United States today water supplied to meet demands of all legitimate
water uses are limited either quantitatively or qualitatively. Because of
these limitations on water supplies and because of increasing demands for
goods and services produced by water resources, we must consider the
possibility of obtaining the greatest possible benefit from our water
resource supplies.
In any given area water use is rarely, if ever, confined to a single
purpose. It is used for human consumption and other necessities of human
livelihood, animal consumption, industrial production, power production,
waste disposal, navigation, irrigation, recreation, fish and wildlife habitat,
and many other uses too numerous to mention here. Any or all of these uses
present no problem as long as the quantity and quality of water required for
each purpose is sufficient to meet the demand. It is only when quantitative
or qualitative restraints are placed on the supply that choices must be made
between alternative uses. When limitations become operative it becomes
necessary to establish criteria to specify efficient use of the diminishing
supply. These criteria should serve as the basic framework, consistent with
needs, laws, and policies, for modifying physical means of water use. In the
field of water resource investigations inquiry should be focused initially on
water supply, total demand for water, value of water for particular uses from
-------
the public point of view, and costs (private and public) of particular uses.
Finally, efficient allocation of scarce water supplies between competing uses
should be based on the principle of maximization of economic welfare. Before
we can deal intelligently with the problem of efficient allocation of our
water supplies among the various competing uses of water, it is necessary to
make educated guesses as to the future demand of each alternative use.
Agriculture is the largest single water user of any industry in the
United States. In 1955, eleven western states supported about 25.5 million
people. These states withdrew about 104 billion gallons of water per day
from surface and underground supplies. In the same year, the eleven most
populous eastern states supported about 78.5 million people. These states
withdrew about 68.5 billion gallons of water per day. Thus the eleven western
states used 4,112 gallons per capita per day as compared to 872 gallons per
capita per day for the eastern states. This difference in per capita use is
I/
attributable almost entirely to irrigation requirements.
PROJECTING FUTURE REQUIREMENTS
Because our water resources investigations must necessarily be con-
cerned with the future, it is necessary to make estimates or projections of
future demands for water for agricultural uses. These demands will be
determined by farm population, numbers and kinds of livestock on farms, and
the acreage and kinds of crops expected to be grown. In the arid west and
in those parts of the humid east where rainfall is improperly distributed
seasonally for optimum crop production, irrigation will be a big factor in
.!/ Irving K. Fox. Water - Supply, Demand, and the Law. Resources for the
Future, Inc. Washington, 1960.
-2-
-------
water use.
In order to project future demand for water for agricultural uses, it
is necessary to study the agriculture of the area under consideration to
(1) get a good picture of the agricultural industry; (2) analyze the changing
trends in agriculture; (3) assist in the determination of agricultural
population and employment; and (4) determine the type and volume of agri-
cultural production and the potential for agricultural production. Before
attempting to analyze the changing trends in agricultural production, and
before their significance can be fully comprehended, it is important to
understand the forces to which they respond. Perhaps the most important
and certainly the most obvious change in the agricultural economy has been
caused by the impact of technological innovations. The widespread adoption
of mechanization and improved farming methods has displaced a considerable
number of agricultural workers. Some of this displaced labor has been
assimilated by other industries and some has become surplus to the area.
Furthermore, mechanization has materially increased agricultural production,
both in terms of output per man hour and in terms of total output. Even
though the acreage of cropland has remained stable.or, as in some areas, has
declined, agricultural production efficiency has increased. This increased
efficiency is largely attributable to mechanization, although increased use
of commercial fertilizers, improved farming methods, soil conservation
practices, and other innovations have also been contributing factors.
Mechanization, however, has not been equally rewarding in all lines of
agricultural production. Increases in physical productivity of labor en-
gaged in livestock production have not kept pace with increases in outputi-from
-3-
-------
labor engaged in crop production even though improved breeding and the develop-
ment of more efficient feeds and feeding have been widely adopted in the
livestock enterprises. This is because the gains made from improved breeding
and feeding have not resulted in the saving in manhours that have been
realized in crop production from mechanization, even though livestock pro-
duction per manhourr:expended has increased.
Rather than reducing manhours worked per capita, increased agricul-
tural productivity has resulted in a reduction in the number of farms and
farm population. Trends in increased productivity indicate a further
reduction in farm population. There is a limit to labor displacement by
mechanization, however, that many authorities believe is already near. In
general it can be expected that future technical efficiency will result mainly
in efficiency through increased production!! rather than in efficiency gained
by further reduction of labor. Increased efficiencies can be expected from
technical improvement and mechanization in newer methods of vertical inte-
gration in livestock production.
Analysis and understanding of the forces that condition trends in
agricultural production assist in making explicit assumptions regarding
future agricultural output. These assumptions may be stated as follows:
1. The downward trend in employment caused by increasing mechanization will
continue, but farm population should level off and may even increase in
response to increased demands for foodstuffs.
2. Improved soil conservation practices, already implemented in so many
areas, will be even more widespread.
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3. The trend Coward diversification of crops will continue.
4. Better plant and animal breeding will help to increase farm production
•and income under normal conditions.
5. Higher yields per acre through use of commercial fertilizers and irrigation
and higher yields per man because of mechanization are trends which will
continue.
These assumptions are prerequisite to projections of farm population,
farm employment, and potential of agricultural production. They do not,
however, lead to a formulation of projected needs for agricultural produc-
tion. Additional assumptions are necessary relative to the needs for certain
types of production that help to explain trends in changes in agriculture.
Based on what we know about population growth, industrial development,
personal incomes, and rising standards of living, we can set forth the follow-
ing postulates:
1. Considerable increase in whole milk production can be expected in response
to the increase in size of nearby urban areas. Considerable increase
in vegetable production can be expected also with higher personal incomes
and higher living standards.
2. Continued emphasis on livestock production for meat, particularly in
those areas where potential increases in capacity of the land are great,
can be expected.
3. Agriculture will continue as a major support of the economy in many areas,
but it is not likely to continue to account for ssclarge a percentage of
total income as it has in the past.
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All of the factors considered in the agricultural economics analysis must
lead primarily to two considerations: (1) The forecasting of the potential
and the probable extent of agricultural production in the future; and (2) the
number of people employed in agriculture. The latter is important to the
consideration of municipal and industrial' water supply because a segment of
the population of each area will be engaged in serving agriculture. In
addition, water required for agricultural uses may have tremendous impact on
water supply available for other uses and on total water demand. Before it
is possible to determine the impact of water requirements for agriculture
on total water demand we must get some idea of the agricultural requirements
for water. This will involve making projections of total farm population
and numbers and kinds of livestock to determine domestic water requirements,
and of the amount of water required for irrigation. Total domestic water
requirements can be estimated by applying per capita use rates to population
and livestock. Per capita use per person for personal and household uses
can be expected to be in the neighborhood of 100 gallons per day by the year
2000. An estimate of livestock requirements can be obtained by application
of the following factors: for one milk cow (for drinking and washing utensils)
35 gallons per day; for one beef cow or horse, 12 gallons per day; for one
hog, 4 gallons; for one sheep, 2 gallons; and for 100 chickens, 7 gallons.
Data on the amount of irrigation water needed for each acre of land are
available from several sources. The best data on water requirements are
those obtained from successful farmers who have reliable water supplies in
21 Planning an Automatic Water System. The Penn. State University, Coll. of
Agr. Agr. Exp. Sta. Cir. 382, May, 1951. University Park, Penn.
-6-
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the general area under study. Experiment station records on irrigation use,
when adapted to actual farming practices, are also helpful in estimating
farm delivery requirements. Considerable data on irrigation requirements
are available from the Bureau of Reclamation! Department of Agriculture,
I/
and State agricultural colleges. The data available will lead to a
determination of present total water requirements for irrigation which
includes not only farm consumptive use but also farm losses and irrigation
system delivery losses. What we are concerned with, however, is total irri-
gation requirements in the future. Here again, technology must be taken
into consideration. Crop adaptation and improvement, pest control,
adequate fertilization, and erosion control have removed many previous
barriers to sustained high yields, particularly in the eastern United States.
Engineers and other scientists are continually working on techniques of re-
ducing irrigation system losses and farm irrigation water losses. Assumptions
regarding the extent to which these irrigation losses may be reduced in the
future are necessary to a projection of future irrigation requirements.
IMPACTS ON QUALITY AND QUANTITY
The expanded use of pesticides may increase crop yields but the
increase in yields may be at the expense of impaired quality of water for
other uses. Existing evidence indicates that in areas where pesticides
are used in large quantities, runoff from these areas contains enough of
the undesirable soluble material that water quality is impaired. Available
3./ Water Facts for the Nation's Future:. Langbein and Hoyt. Chap. 10
Ronald Press. New York, 1959.
-7-
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evidence indicates that ..the natural organic and synthetic organic chemicals
dissolved in the runoff from pesticide-treated areas are not removed by
presently known water treatment methods. Not enough is yet known about
this problem to determine whether it will have pathological effects on
health. However, it is a problem with which we must be concerned when
considering the development of surface supplies of water for domestic and
municipal uses in those areas where large amounts of pesticides are
necessary for profitable agricultural production.
After determination of the amount and distribution of precipitation
in the area the effect of total water requirements for irrigation and farm
domestic use on available water supply and on total water demands can be
determined. This assumes of course that total water requirements and demands
for other uses have already been determined. However, knowing the require-
ments for each use and the impact of the demands of each purpose on total
available supply does not answer the question of which purposes should be
served or which uses should have priority.
ECONOMICS OF ALTERNATIVE USES
It appears to me that in any water resource investigation the ques-
tion of priority of use among competing alternative uses is the crucial
issue. Some ordering of priority in use may be quite easy. For example,
water use for human consumption undoubtedly has highest priority.
Similarly, control of water to spare human lives in flood has high priority.
Beyond these points, however, ordering of use is not so "clear cut", and
must involve much more study. To sustain life both food and water are
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necessary. Abundance of both probably will not be possible in years to come.
In addition to food and water, we also need those manufactured goods and
those services provided by our natural resources that will enable us to
maintain the standard of living to which our people have become accustomed
and which have become necessary parts of our lives. This does not mean
that the highest tail fins on automobiles are necessary, or the most gadgets,
or two cars in every garage, or a country home in the mountains or on the
water front, but rather those things that we have come to feel as necessary
to civilized living. How can we best control our resources so that we will
be assured of plenty of water for necessary livelihood, plenty of food,
and plenty of essential manufactured goods and still have enough for such
necessary things as recreation and outdoor living and enjoyment? Many
solutions to this problem are possible. For example, we might: (1) Set
priorities on food production and allocate the amount of resources required
to meet the food goals. (2) Zone the country by regions so that each region
would produce only those things to which it is particularly adapted. This
would mean producing food only in those areas particularly adapted to food
production of given types with the least input of natural resources.
(3) Divert more of our human and financial resources to research in the field
of new synthetic foods. (4) Let the pricing mechanism, and where inappli-
cable, legal and social means, be the guiding criterion for resource
allocation. Because the latter appears to be the most practicable and the
most palatable from the standpoint of a democratic way of life, I should like
to pursue this possibility a little later.
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If we are to attain the goal of maximization of economic welfare we
must allocate water resources to alternative uses in such a manner that the
goal will be realized. The objective to be attained is to help maximize
economic welfare of society in total. This requires getting the proper
balance between uses and weighing the gains from each use against the cost.
This brings me back to the beginning of this paper - the efficient allocation
of water resources between competing uses which I consider is the first
major condition in meeting the goal of maximization of economic welfare.
Three steps are necessary to attain this condition of efficient
allocation. First the determination of the supply of water. This includes
the total quantity available to the geographic sector under consideration.
It includes also the distribution of the water supply among localities
and seasons of the year and its storage possibilities to alter the supply
between different time periods. Second, the determination of alternative
uses and the production possibilities of each use of the given water supply.
The nature of these two steps is largely physical although important economic
concepts are involved. Although these two steps can be accomplished
expeditiously, they have little economic significance. The third step,
however, is entirely economic and is the real determinant of economic use
of the resource. The third step is the application of a choice criterion
in determining which uses (or rather the products or services supplied by
each use) are mofit important. These uses must also be in line with the
relative wants or desires of consumers of the products or services forth-
coming from the uses. In applying a choice criterion relative weights
-10-
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or importance are placed upon use. This generally results not in a
single use but an optimum combination of.uses. Ordinarily, a single use
will not be extended to the point where it curtails other uses below
socially desirable levels.
For a given supply of water many alternative uses exist. Let me
present a simple illustration of the problem in which, for purposes of
simplicity, I will assume only two competing uses. Assuming that the
supply of water is known, a set of production possibilities exist for its
use. The water could be used entirely for one use, say irrigation. Another
alternative might be to use all of the water for another use, say to produce
an industrial product. Use of all the water for a single purpose would
represent an extreme. Besides these two extremes many possible combinations
of uses could be made between irrigation and industrial production. Assuming
that both of these uses results in products for which there is a demand, the
question is: Which alternative is the optimum or socially desirable
combination?
An answer to this question cannot be given until a choice criterion
is applied. That is, some social ordering or some relative importance must
be placed on each of the many alternatives. The selection of alternatives
must befjhect the changing desires of the consumers. Normally the choice
criterion employed is the pricing mechanism. Consumers reflect the relative
importance which they attach to each alternative use of water by the prices
they are willing to pay for the products forthcoming from the alternative uses.
If all water available were used by private enterprise to produce commodities
and services for consumers, given a set of prices, the private firms would
produce commodities and services in line with consumer preferences.
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Suppose that for the given supply of water we can produce 100 units
of an agricultural product valued at one dollar per unit which would result
in a total value of production of $100. The same amount of water will
produce 40 units of an industrial commodity valued at $2.50 per unit
resulting in a total value of production of $100. If consumers are
completely indifferent as to whether agricultural products or industrial
products were produced with the water, all of the water could be used for
either product and the economic gain would he the same - $100. However,
man does not live by bread alone;. The consuming society says that it
wants both agricultural and industrial products. They place a value on
the industrial product that is 2% times the price of the agricultural
product. This price ratio.i of 2^ to 1 is the choice criterion which
serves to indicate the optimum use of resources. It will be to the
consumers advantage to substitute water used for agricultural production
by water used for industrial production as long as the substitution
ratio of agricultural products to industrial products is less than the
price ratio of 2% to 1.
In our example the water supply is sufficient to produce either
100 units of agricultural product or 40 units of industrial product. If
all of the water were used for either one or the other the total value
produced would be $100. Society, however, wants some of both products.
It is possible to produce 90 units of agricultural product and 10 units
of industrial product which will have a total value of $115 with the supply
of water available. In choosing this alternative, 10 units of agricultural
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product are being sacrificed to gain 10 units of industrial product. This
is a substitution ratio of 1 to 1 which is less than the price ratio of 2%
to 1 and therefore it is to society's advantage to make the substitution.
Another alternative is the production of 70 units of agricultural product
and 20 units of industrial product which results in a total value of pro-
duction of $120. Here we sacrifice 20 units of agricultural product to
gain 10 units of industrial product. The substitution ratio is 2 to 1,
which, being less than the price ratio of 2% to 1, is advantageous. Still
another alternative is the production of 40 units of agricultural product
and 30 units 6f industrial product giving a total value of production of
$115. In this case 30 units of agricultural product are sacrificed to gain
10 units of industrial product This is a substitution ratio of 3 to 1
which is more than the price ratio of 2% to 1 and therefore is less desirable
than the production of 70 units of agricultural product and 20 units of in-
dustrial product. This situation holds generally true for water use: increased
diversion of water for one purpose entails increasing sacrifices in other
uses. I again emphasize, water used for one purpose should not be extended
to the point where it curtails socially desirable levels of other uses. In
our example, water used for agricultural production should not be extended
beyond production of 70 units of product so that it will not curtail industrial
production below 20 units of product. In those alternatives, such as those
used in this example, where products move into the market, the rule should be:
use water for the purpose which has the highest marginal value product. If
each unit of water were allocated in terms of its marginal value product, a
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maximum addition to the social product would be guaranteed in water use. It
should be emphasized that it is the marginal value productivity and not the
average productivity of water that is important. Use of the marginal value
productivity takes into account that (1) the physical productivity of water
may decrease as more is used for a particular product and (2) the price
consumers are willing to pay for the product from a particular use of water
may well decline where more of the product is forthcoming. Thus, the
maximum value of water used for any purpose is determined by the marginal
value product forthcoming from the last unit of water used. What does this
mean and how does it work? Let us assume that in an arid region where crops
cannot be grown without irrigation, 5 units of water are applied to an
agricultural crop. The total value product for the first unit of water used
is $100; the second unit, $180; the third unit $240; the fourth unit, $280;
and the fifth unit, $300. The marginal value product for each unit of water
use is $100 for the first unit; $80 for the second; $60 for the third; $40
for the fourth; and $2Q' for the fifth. If all of the 5 units of water were
used for agriculture, the total value product would be $300 and the maximum
value of water per unit used would be $20 since that is the marginal value
of product from the last unit of water applied. This, however, would not
be the most efficient use of the five units of water. A total value product
of more than $300 could be obtained if the water were not all used for
agriculture. Suppose that when used for the manufacturing of an industrial
product the 5 units of water produce a total value of $55 for the first unit
of water used; $100 for the second; $135 for the third; $160 for the fourth;
and $175 for the fifth. Marginal value products are $55, $45, $35, $25, and
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$15. Since the marginal value products of the first and second units of water
used for the industrial product $55 and $45, are higher than the marginal
value products of the agricultural commodity forthcoming from the fourth and
fifth units of water used, $40 and $20, respectively, it will pay to use
only three units of water for agriculture and two units for production of
the industrial commodity. Allocated in this way the total value product
from both uses is $340 as compared to $300 when all the water is used by
agriculture.
Hence, a general principle has been indicated for attainment of the
first major condition - the efficient allocation between competing uses.
The pricing mechanism can be used as the choice criterion reflecting con-
sumer desires to water uses. However, for many uses of water, the pricing
mechanism cannot be used as a choice indicator. For example, there is little
opportunity to divert water from irrigation or power production to recrea-
tion purposes. In some instances, such as in the case of municipal water
supply, prices paid for water are administratively determined and are not
necessarily the prices people would be willing to pay for water produced by
private competitive firms supplying water for municipal needs.
Although the pricing mechanism is an insufficient basis for final
control of watenuse and allocation, the principle of the choice criterion
should hbt lie discarded. If the most efficient use or control of water is
to be attained, the pricing mechanism as a choice criterion must be re-
tained. Where the pricing mechanism is insufficient for measuring and re-
flecting the relative values of water in its different uses, other means of
measurement must be found. Some means of measuring the relative values or
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weights for water uses where the pricing mechanism does not apply must be
found so that relative values can be compared to the production possibilities
of water and a choice of uses made in line with these two phenomena. In
many cases of water resource development, optimum choices of use will need
y
to be effected with some combination of price and legal mechanisms.
CONCLUSIONS
In this paper I have attempted to show how we might arrive at the
total water demand for agriculture Water requirements for agriculture,
being of a physical nature, are not difficult to determine. After the re-
quirements have been determined it is not a difficult task to determine the
relative effects of water demand for agricultural uses on total water demand
in a quantitative sense. This determination, however, is not the real problem.
The real problem of effects of water requirements for agriculture on total
demand for water is economic in character and is not so easily determined.
The real problem facing the American people today in water resource
use and development is: How should our scarce water resources be used to
the greatest benefit to society? I have tried to point out some of the con-
siderations that are involved in seeking an answer to this question. As I
have indicated, insufficient knowledge is as yet available and considerable
work will be required before a satisfactory solution can be attained.
k_l For a more detailed technical discussion see Heady and Timmons, Economic
Framework for Water Resources. Iowa's Water Resources. Iowa State
College Press, Ames.
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NOTES
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NOTES
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NOTES
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ESTIMATING FUTURE WATER DEMAND
Charles R. Ownbey
Water Resources Section
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Public Health Service, Region VII
U. S. Department of Health, Education, & Welfare
INTRODUCTION
This paper will present some of the problems typically encountered in
making estimates of the water requirements which may be expected to accompany
the projected populations and economic activities, previously discussed by
Mr. Torget. The paper is intended to serve as a basis for discussion leading
to conclusions. It is pointless to deny that I already have certain personal
convictions on the subject as the reader will no doubt detect.
GENERAL OUTLOOK
We believe that the planning of water resource utilization can and
should be approached with optimism. A noted spokesman has been widely quoted
as saying, in speeches made throughout the state of Texas this past year:
"Within the next 50 years, the number one problem in Texas may well become,
where to get a good drink of water." Not to disparage the speaker, whose
purpose to get the attention of a well-fed luncheon audience was admirably
served by this catch phrase, it must be pointed out that drinking water is a
negligible part of total water demands. To be sure, a prudent man would not
sit down in the middle of a desert, waiting either to have water brought to
him or die of thirst. But then, he never could do that in the past.
-------
There is, happily, a growing awareness that water is a commodity like
any other, and can become responsive to the same economic laws that govern other
goods and services. This viewpoint was ably presented by Mr. Hines, in his
paper, "Role of Price in Water Resource Allocation." —
This paper is written in the environment of Region VII and some of its
statements may not apply to other parts of the country. With that qualification,
it can be said that there is ample reason to expect that water can be made
available in quantities sufficient to meet any reasonable projection of demand,
at prices within economic range. This is said in full knowledge of, and in
spite of, the voices of those whom John Vandertulip—' has called "Criers of
Doom".
THE COMPONENTS OF WATER USE
Water serves many purposes, and this discussion is confined to the pro-
jection of municipal-and-industrial water requirements. The hyphens are there
to emphasize that we seek a single final answer, whose total value will include
all of the water uses which the words municipal and industrial, together or
separately, connote.
I/ Hines, Lawrence G., "Role of Price in Water Resource Allocation",
Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Divisj.on^ ASCE, January, 1960.
21 Chief Engineer, Texas Board of Water Engineers
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The first sentence of the report to the Select Committee, Print #7, •=•'
reads in part: "Presented....are data on the quantities....of water presently
supplied through municipal systems....(and) estimates of the quantities
required for municipal purposes in....the year 2000....". (Underlining sup-
plied.) I suggest that the author changed horses in midstream of that sentence.
Two examples will illustrate the distinction. At Tulsa, Oklahoma, 38 per cent
of the present output of the municipal water department is sold to two oil
refineries. At San Antonio, Texas, the largest department store has its own
well, as do many other commercial establishments and some residences. The first
example illustrates municipally-supplied industrial water, and the second, "self-
supplied" municipal water.
It is admitted that defining municipal water as water supplied through
21
"organized community water facilities" — has advantages. It facilitates
processing of reported data by machine methods, and it subdues the element of
judgment in statistical analyses. Nevertheless, it is believed that a preferable
basis for future projections is to subdivide water use according to purpose, and
not according to the modus operandi by which the water is delivered to users.
\l Future Water Requirements for Municipal Use. Report by the Department
of Health, Education, and Welfare, to the Select Committee on National
Water Resources, United States Senate, published as Committee Print
No. 7, 1960.
21 Municipal Water Facilities. Communities of_ 25,000 Population and Over...,
"" U. S. Public Health Service, January, 1958.
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Fortunately, it happens that in many cases, and perhaps in a majority of
cases, those industries whose water demands are significantly large, have their
own facilities. The remaining industries are either so small, or so much a
part of any typical community, that their water use can, without serious error,
be included with other usage in a single municipal figure. But the investigator
should be on the lookout for exceptions to this generalization, and make appro-
priate adjustments.
For the type of water resource planning with which we are concerned,
there will be no "self-supplied" users. The goal of resource planning is to
present an over-all appraisal of supply and demand for a study area. Supply
can come only from one or both of two sources — surface and ground waters. Both
sources are supplied by nature, and man can only effect some modification in the
areal and temporal distribution. Of course, some large streams may require
little or no artificial regulation, but this in no way alters the basic truth.
Water may be self-pumped or self-piped but it will not be self-supplied.
For projection purposes, the separation of water demand into a multiplic-
ity of component parts is of questionable merit. The historical records of
municipal waiter use are of du-bious accuracy even for the1 total quantity used.
Few operating water companies can do"more than guess at how their total output
is divided among'different purposes. Evidence for'that'statement is to be
found in examination of thfe 1957 Inventory of; Municipal Wa'ter Facilities. —
I/ Ibid.
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Columns IS and 16 of the Inventory report the answers to the question of
how total output is divided into four parts: Domestic (Residential), Commercial,
Industrial, and Public-and-other. Approximately 62 per cent, of 580 reporting
communities, either did not answer the question or gave incomplete answers.
Another 13 per cent gave answers whose sum does not equal the reported total
output. Three examples will be cited to support questioning of the validity of
answers for the remaining 25 per cent.
The City Water Board of San Antonio, Texas, was among the 25 per cent
reporting consistent answers. I was employed there at the time of the inventory.
We were justifiably proud of the records kept by the Water Board. But those
records were not kept in such manner as to yield an answer to the question of
four-part breakdown somebody guessed at it.
Another city reported total output of 10 mgd, divided 3-3-3-1; a break-
down of beautiful symmetry but doubtful validity.
Iri sharp cbntrdst to the reports from other states, in Wisconsin every
city but tine gives a consistent breakdown. This means either that Wisconsin
operators are far ahead of their neighbors in detailed accounting for water, or
else the state data were arbitrarily adjusted for consistency in a central office.
Notwithstanding what has been said, further study of the breakdown and
pattern of water use is worthwhile. I believe it will be profitable to pursue
local studies of an intensive nature, as a complement to the extensive coverage
of nationwide inventories.
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6
FACTORS AFFECTING WATER DEMAND
In the language of the mathematician, water demand will be treated as
the dependent variable. Independent variables or parameters, upon which it
depends, may be listed as follows:
1. Population.
2. Time (trend).
3. General state of the economy.
4. Living standards of families.
5. Climate.
6. Size of city.
7. Price of water.
8. Type and size of industry.
9. Accuracy of measurement.
Ideally, the scientific approach to investigation would be to allow each
parameter to vary in turn, while holding all others fixed, and to measure the
observed effect. Unfortunately, it is not possible to isolate any single variable
completely from the others nor is it possible to use another technique common
in model studies and group them into dimensionless combinations, thereby reducing
the number of independent variables.
An effort has been made to find examples for which one parameter was of
predominant influence—either because the others did not vary or because the
observed effect occurred in spite of counter-influence of other parameters. As
each parameter is discussed, the examples will be presented.
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1. Population
Because population is the most important single factor affecting municipal
use, it is customary to express the ratio in gallons per capita day (gpcd).
Except as qualified, other variables will be examined as to their influence on
per capita use.
2. Time
Figure 1 shows the trend of municipal water use at Austin, San Antonio,
and Oklahoma City. Gallons per day per service connection, rather than per
capita, were plotted because records are available directly in that form for
two of the cities. For Oklahoma City, pumpage data, but not the number of
service connections, are available for each year. Because of necessary adjust-
ment to permit plotting on a comparable basis, the Oklahoma City curve should
not be considered definitive except as an indication of general trend. Our
primary concern here is the general shape of the trend curves. The U-shape
which is characteristic of all three records leaves wide latitude for opinion
as to what the future trend will be. For extrapolation 50 years into the future,
it is desirable, on one hand, to consider the longest available period of past
record. Examination will show that a line drawn approximately through the
earliest and most recent points would incline downward into the future.
On the other hand, a sharp upward trend is evidenced in the'last 25 years.
The slope of this 25-year trend translates into an avevage-.iincrease in per
capita demand ofi«one to-one^and-a->half gallohs per day per year-. Apparently,
this is thei -evidence -upon which-Imany forecasters have predicted future
acceleration rates of such magnitude.
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8
A third possibility exists, which is not shown on Figure 1. Records of
the Last four or five years exhibit a level trend.
Somewhere among the possible extremes lies the most probable answer. In
my own opinion, it is unreasonable to expect the acceleration rate of the past
25 years to continue unabated for fifty more years. But I must disagree with
those who would ignore it entirely.
In reaching a decision, it would be most helpful to know the causes of
the shape of the trend curves. Here the impossibility of isolating the variables
becomes apparent.
Conjecturally, the downward trend of the early years reflects increase
in metering. Unquestionably, metering has a significant effect on water usage.
When it is not metered there is little incentive to call a plumber to repair
leaks—and a leak can easily waste far more water than is beneficially used.
Possibly the low point in the mid-thirties and high point of the mid-
fifties reflect the influence of our third variable, the general level of
economic activity. In pursuit of this idea, the graph of gross national product
was also plotted on Figure 1. The low point of the curve corresponds to the
middle of the Great Depression, and time may show the high point to coincide
with the peak of a boom period. However, the hypothesis doesn't stand up too
well under closer examination, especially in the period from 1920 to 1935.
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4. Living Standards of Families
Table 1 and Figure 2 show the result of a part of an intensive study of
water use patterns in San Antonio, Texas. An unusual opportunity to isolate
one variable from the others is made possible by the fact that, since 1957, the
San Antonio Water Board has kept separate records of consumption in each Census
Tract. The city was divided at the time of the 1950 census into approximately
100 of these tracts.
Ten Census Tracts were selected for investigation. These tracts were
chosen because: (1) each tract is predominantly single-family residential,
with a minimum of commerce and no industry; (2) the ten tracts cover the range
from luxury to sub-standard class of neighborhood; and (3) each is homogeneous
with respect to its economic class.
1960 populations given in Table 1 are the preliminary United States census
values, obtained through the courtesy of the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce.
Populations for other years were obtained by interpolation, using number of
service connections as a guide. Water consumption data are from the records of
the City Water Board. Property values were obtained from records of the Bexar
County Tax Assessor-Collector. Assessed valuation was first determined by
averaging approximately fifty random samples for each tract. The average assessed
value was then divided by 28 per cent, on the advice of tax office personnel, to
convert to actual market value.
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Table 1
Residential Per Capita Water Consumption
San Antonio, Texas
Census
Tract
A-l
A- 2
B-l
B-2
C-l
C-2
D-l
D-2
E-l
E-2
Average
Property
Value
$ 3,000
4,400
5,900
6,400
8,600
9,700
19,700
16,600
20,800
21,400
Population
1957
14,000
6,400
4,400
4,440
5,040
10,320
5,230
4,900
5,040
2,590
1958
14,000
6,500
4,420
4,450
5,040
12,180
5,970
5,760
5,130
2,530
1959
14,000
6,600
4,350
4,420
5,040
13,900
6,950
6,760
5,220
2,480
1960
14,000
6,700
4,300
4,440
5,040
15,200
7,760
7,150
5,600
2,440
Average Water Consumption, gpcd
1957
60
83
106
114
127
143
195
186
252
262
1958
59
78
98
107
111
94
190
157
212
225
1959
70
84
101
110
113
98
208
202
224
260
1960
60
84
96
109
111
97
208
183
256
280
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10
I would have preferred using per capita income instead of property value
as a measure of the standard of living in each Census Tract but the figures
are not yet obtainable from the Census Bureau. Nevertheless, the high degree
of correlation between standard of living and per capita water use, and the
tremendous influence of standard of living, are clearly apparent in Figure 2.
Annual rainfall was above normal in all four of the years of record.
The price of water was about 30 per cent higher in the two tracts, E-l
and E-2*, than in the others. This is because they are separately incorporated
satellite cities and are charged the outside-city-limits rate of the San
Antonio waterworks. It appears that, for this luxury class, the premium price
of water didn't noticeably affect its use.
5. Climate
Several investigations of the relationship of per capita use to rainfall
have been made in the Region VII office. The results can be summarized by saying
that, when annual rainfall is more than about 45 inches, no discernible effect
is caused by further increase in amount. Below 45 inches per year, there is a
f.O-30 9Cf>4 tH]l*r
noticeable effect, per capita demand at 15 inches of rain averaging about Wtt
times the demand at 45 inches.
One illustration of observed effect of rainfall will be presented in the
discussion of the next parameter, size of city.
Census Tract designations used herein are not the actual tract numbers.
-------
11
Before leaving the subject of climate, it is appropriate to suggest that
more consideration should be given to drouth frequency analysis in the study of
both supply and demand. Since the purpose of storage impoundment is to assure
the supply of water during drouth periods, it is logical to estimate what the
demand will be under the design drouth condition that is used in' reservoir yield
studies.
The governor of Texas said recently that the drouth of the middle fifties
was the worst in 600 years. Without questioning the accuracy of estimate of
that recurrence interval, it can be questioned whether our "prudent user" would
be willing to pay the cost of avoiding some curtailment in water usage once
every 600 years. Statements of dependable yield from a reservoir should be
accompanied by a statement of the drouth frequency, or recurrence interval,
used in the analysis.*
6. Size of City
Figure 3 was plotted from data'-collected for a 46-county regional- study
being made for the Trinity River Watershed and adjoining areas. Each point
represents the average' per capita use of all community water systems (for which
records are available) -in a county. Included in the group are Harris County
(Houston), Dallas County, and Tarrant County (Fort Worth).
* Although low-flow augmentation is outside the scope of this paper, the
same viewpoint applies.
-------
12
The fortuitous occurrence of an abnormally wet year immediately follow-
ing a record drouth year (1956) offers a good opportunity to see the effect of
rainfall extremes. It will be seen that per capita demand in 1956 averaged
about 20 per cent higher than in 1957.
The astonishing thing about the data plotted on Figure 3 is the indica-
tion of limited effect of size on per capita demand, even though sizes range
from a thousand to a million people. Statistical regression lines for each
year, and their equations, calculated by least squares, are shown on the graph.
They were calculated because we didn1t believe our eyes, and they are not
recommended for general use. I am not ready to say that this evidence shows
that per capita use does not increase with size of city---but I am no longer
willing to accept such an assumption without doubts. Perhaps the country town
is disappearing, along with the country girl.
7. Price of Water
In considering the effect of price on water demand, three basic facts
should be kept in mind. These are: (1) it is delivered price, not cost of
source development, that is significant; (2) for legal, political, and social
reasons, the role of price has been greatly restrained; and (3) it is incorrect
to generalize that the unit price of water will go up everywhere.
The cost of source development is usually a small part of delivered
price of water. In an increasing number of cities the water bill includes a
sewer service charge, which may or may not be separately itemized. (In Dallas
it is not.) Some cities subsidize the cost of water service from general
tax funds; others use water sales as a source of municipal revenue for other
purposes.
-------
13
Legal aspects can be illustrated by the following example. One might
ask why the holder of a water right on the Texas coast persists in using the
water to grow rice when the dollar return would be much higher if it were used
in industrial production. The answer is that he possesses only the right to
use the water for a specified purpose, irrigation, and not the authority to
sell it. Society as a whole might gain from reallocation of scarce water to
higher-yield usage but the incumbent water-right holder stands to lose what
he has and gain nothing. The pressing question is, "Whose water is it?".
Waiver of claim by the federal government still leaves the gamut of claimants,
from private citizen, to city, to county, to water district or river authority,
to state.
The costs of impoundment, treatment, and transmission of water respond
dramatically to the effect of mass production. Many a small town is experienc-
ing critical problems of high-cost water precisely because the demand is small.
I shall resist the temptation to elaborate further on a pet subject, and
simply say that price is expected to play a role of increasing importance in
the future.
It is difficult to find evidence of significant effect of price on water
usage in Region VII. Apparently this is because the cost of water is a small
part of either the cost of living to families or the cost of production in
industries. Only one example has been found for which a comparison can be
made---the cities of Abilene and Brownwood, Texas. Investigation of the records
disclosed the following facts:
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14
1. The cities are Located about 80 miles apart.
2. Abilene is three times as big as Brownwood.
3. Abilene is growing rapidly, while Brownwood lost
population in the last 10 years.
4. Rainfall at Abilene averages slightly less than
at Brownwood.
5. Per capita income is higher at Abilene.
6. Neither city is highly industrialized.
7. Contrary to expectations, per capita water use
for several years past has been consistently
higher at Brownwood than at Abilene--about
one-and-a-half times as much.
8. The water bill for a typical family, using ten
to fifteen thousand gallons a month, would be
almost twice as high in Abilene. It appears,
therefore, that price is exerting an influence
here which counteracts all other factors.
8. Type and Size of Industry
Except for possibly half a dozen industrial categories in which large
quantities of water are used, I believe that industrial water can be included
with all other uses in a single per capita figure at least for large
metropolitan centers. Care should be exercised in the investigation, prepara-
tory to making a projection, to insure that the water usage from all sources is
included in the total present use. The total may then be separated, or not,
-------
15
as judgment dictates, into municipal and industrial parts. The decision—for
reasons previously stated should not be based solely on whether particular
water users are currently buying water from the municipal system.
Where the special large-water-using industries exist, their water
demands are apt to be quite large, sometimes far overshadowing the municipal
use.
9. Accuracy of Measurement
This is not, of course, a proper variable upon which it could be said
that water use depends. It is included here because of personal conviction
that inaccuracies in measuring, compiling, and publishing data constitute a
major reason for difference in the reported use of water.
It is by no means obvious, to the management in many operating water
companies, that it is necessary to account precisely for the total quantity of
product delivered. A large part of the cost of rendering water service is made
up of fixed capital and operating expenses, not directly related to the amount
of water delivered. The front office is primarily interested in revenue, and
many of our largest water utilities rely, like the telephone company, on a
system of flat-rate monthly charges as the major source of this revenue.
The design engineer is concerned with ability of the system to meet peak
rate demands. The pump station operator governs his plant output by the pulse
of the distribution system as evidenced by strategic pressures or the height
of water in elevated tanks.
-------
16
It is apparent, then, that none of these people are vitally interested
in the annual output of water. Only for long-range planning of source develop-
ments is this information indispensable.
The second major reason for inaccuracy is the difficulty of measuring the
quantity of water dispatched from a pumping station. Since it flows continuously
but unsteadily, it cannot be counted by discrete units, as can sacks of potatoes
or carloads of coal.
Typical meters measure rate of flow indirectly by its relationship to
some measurable pressure difference; the instantaneous rate is translated and
integrated mechanically into total quantity. To be sure, these meters can be
and are built to a high degree of precision—but maintenance by highly trained
specialists is required for continued accuracy. Furthermore, they are expensive,
and many small water systems do no have them.
Improvement in the completeness and accuracy of data may be expected to
result from education in the importance of water accounting. The operator needs
the motivation of knowing why he is doing the job, and training to teach him
how to do it.
The growing use of the techniques of mathematical statistics, facilitated
by electronic computers, can greatly improve our understanding of the signifi-
cance of masses of data. It is well to bear in mind, however, that no amount
of statistical manipulation can compensate for gross inaccuracies in raw data--
and that the electronic computing machine reproduces flawlessly any mistakes fed
into it.
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17
PROJECTION METHODS
Future water demand may be obtained by: (1) direct projection of annual
quantity of water, from the amount used in a base year; (2) projection of popu-
lation and an all-inclusive per capita use factor which, multiplied by this
population, gives total water demand; or (3) projection of population as before
and selection of appropriate multipliers to give separate components of water
use. Each method has advantages, and each has been used, at one time or another,
in the reports prepared by the Region VII staff.
The first method is the simplest, the most direct and probably the most
vulnerable to criticism. Implicit in its use is the assumption that population
and water-using activity will grow apace with the projected water demand. There
should be, but isn't always, the additional implied assumption of the presence
of the other factors which, in turn, cause population to grow. The water depart-
ment of one of our major cities has the catchy slogan: "Podunk grows where water
goes". Critics like myself would quibble that the slogan is worded backward;
they mean: "Water goes where Podunk grows".
In my opinion, the second method is the preferred one of the group unless
there is good reason to depart from it. The investigator would examine all of
the evidence, weigh the evidence with reg.ard to the parameters discussed in the
preceding section, and render an opinion. That is, he would select for the
target projection year a single per-capita number embodying municipal-and-
industrial water, and multiply by the projected population. I would say that
this method can be applied to large metropolitan centers in which there is not
disproportionate activity of one of the special, large-water-using industries.
-------
18
The third method is, or should be, a modification of the second. I
would split off, for separate projection, whatever is special, unusual, or
atypical at the particular place. All the rest of the water demands could
still be incorporated into a per capita figure and called municipal. The
projection technique for the special component would depend on its nature.
For some industrial categories, the preferred approach might be to project
total production and multiply by water use per unit of product. For others,
the multiplier might be water use per employee. A third possibility is to
make a direct assumption of percentage increase in quantity of water from
analysis of the potential for growth in that industry as determined by the
resources available to support it.
In selecting factors for projecting industrial use, every effort should
be made to obtain local data. Unit water use within many industrial categories
is so highly variable as to render virtually useless the national or regional
average figures. The chemical industries present an especially knotty problem.
We can do little more than guess at what the products of chemistry will be
fifty years hence. (Incidentally, this writer deplores the inordinate fear of
using that word, "guess"; the substitution of euphemisms seldom fools anyone.)
In contrast to industrial demand, it is confidently expected that
municipal (population-oriented) water requirements will vary within rather
narrow limits. I believe the time is approaching when we will be able to draw
iso-per-capita lines on a map of Region VII and to use them for estimating
-------
19
municipal demand. This will require, first, rejection of incorrect data in
the past record, and then adjustment for the influence of rainfall and standard
of living.
We do not yet have firmly adopted numbers for placing on such a map. I
am convinced that they will be substantially higher than those given by the
Public Health Service to the Senate Select Committee particularly the figures
of 114 and 106 gpcd for the Western Gulf (year 2000) published in Table 5 of
Committee Print No. 7. I suggest, for the year 2010, a range from about 140
gpcd in the humid, to about 230 gpcd in the semi-arid, parts of Region VII.
(We have not made detailed studies in the arid part, New Mexico and extreme
West Texas.)
Finally, if it is concluded that the best we can do is define a range
of values within which the answer lies, then the numbers should truly reflect
a range. To speak of a "medium" value of 114 gpcd and a "high" of 106, is both
contradictory in terminology and ridiculously narrow in latitude. If "that's
the way the ball bounces" as the result of a whole series of judgment decisions
made in arriving at answers, then the ball should be bounced again.
-------
20
SUMMARY
Despite perplexing questions as to whose water it is, water is a natural
resource which can be considered to respond to the same economic laws that
govern other commodities.
Objective water resource planning can be substantially bereft of funereal
aspects, and approached with confidence and optimism. We are not about to run
out of drinking water in Region VII.
For the purpose of estimating future demands, water use should be sub-
divided into as many components as will improve the accuracy of the sum of its
parts -- and no more.
Certain methods of subdivision have been suggested, along with suggested
methods of approach to the problem in different circumstances.
Examples have been cited to illustrate the influence, or the absence
of influence, of parameters commonly considered to have significant effect on
water demands.
Estimates of future water requirements should take into account both
general trend and cyclical variation. A drouth frequency should be adopted as
one of the basic premises of planning studies, and both supply and demand
should be estimated for the climatic conditions of the design drouth.
Average per capita use of water will continue to rise as an increasing
percentage of the population moves up to higher standards of living.
-------
21
Suggested values for Region VII are 140 to 230 gpcd in the year 2010 - the range
reflecting primarily the influence of rainfall under design drouth conditions.
Adjustments should be made, as local investigation indicates, for the effects of
such parameters as: availability and price of water; types of industry; and,
perhaps, size of city.
The Public Health Service should review its position as established by
the report to the Senate Select Committee, and make some upward revisions
particularly of the figures in Tables 5 and 7 (Committee Print No. 7) for the
Western Gulf and Ark-White-Red water resource regions. Our position is
weakened when we cannot cite our own publications in support of conclusions.
-------
1500
O
O
evj
O)
1000
— 5001—
1910
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
PER CAPITA
1920
1930 1940
YEAR
1950
I960
900
SAN ANTONIO
AUSTIN
OKLAHOMA CITY
100
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
I9GO
YEAR
-------
300
(/) 250
Z
Q
200
g
Q.
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5000 10000 15000 20000
AVERAGE VALUE OF PROPERTY IN I960
25000
LEGEND
V YEAR 1957
Q YEAR 1958
A YEAR 1959
O YEAR I960
KIGUUE 2
-------
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-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
NOTES
-------
MUST WATER TREATMENT BE HIGH PRICED?
By
Earnest F= Gloyna
Professor of Environmental Health Engineering
The University of Texas
Austin, Texas
ABSTRACT
Water treatment begins at the point of use, and the final treat-
ment is provided at the point of discharge. Design criteria can "become
too stereotyped, resulting in more costly treatment practices. The
waste stabilization pond is probably the most economical system of
waste treatment for many of the smaller communities. However, as with
all present-day treatment operations, much research and development is
still needed.
Water is one of the necessities of life. Furthermore, it is one of
the major resources in the United States. The distribution and use of
water is controllable to some extent, but the reuse of water is depend-
ent upon the resourcefulness of the present generation. The pollution of
large amounts of water with smaller amounts of contaminants is an econ-
omic luxury which this nation cannot afford. It is recognized by most
responsible people that the use of water is a privilege and that treat-
ment of used water is a necessity. The degree of treatment may vary
from place to place, but the cost of treatment represents a fee for using
the water.
Merciless man must not turn the streams into poison for other users.
Man must pay, but it need not be expensive-
A paper to be presented to the U- S- Public Health Service Conference on
Water Resources, Region VII, Dallas, Texas, May 15-1?,
-------
If the majority of our future water supply is to be a mixture of
pristine and adulterated waters, then water treatment must logically be-
gin at the point of pollution and not at the water intake of some down-
stream user. This paper describes some of the reasons why domestic
waste treatment need not necessarily be expensive. The ultimate object-
ives remain the same with regard to water treatment and use, i.e., it
is not only desirable but necessary to destroy the pathogenic micro-
organisms and, in some manner, reduce the putrescible organic matter to
carbon dioxide or otherwise inoffensive substances. The scientific aspects
of the algal-bacterial commensalism (eating at the same table) system will
be considered herein, but the emphasis will be placed on the development
of the "art" of waste-water treatment by the use of waste stabilization
ponds.
Engineering Apathy
Water quality control is an engineering problem but with roots in al-
most all the social and scientific disciplines. Engineers, as a profess-
ional group, pride themselves in being able to utilize these various dis-
ciplines to obtain one or more plausible solutions to an engineering pro-
blem. Once having developed possible answers, the professional engineer
makes his decision on the basis of an economic evaluation. It is at this
point in a water development study when an engineer searches his mind
and conscience for all the knowledgeable facts. The figures are bared,
and an honest appraisal is made. It is a rare case indeed when the
engineer reaches a major decision on purely materialistic considerations.
Even as individuals, professional groups sometimes become engrossed
-------
in what are all too frequently described as technicalities. This is clearly
demonstrated in the area of water and waste treatment- To this extent the
American engineer has expended much effort on the use of power and ex-
tended the application of mechanical appurtenances, particularly in the
field of water treatment. He has strived to perfect larger and more soph-
isticated systems. This, in itself, is not "bad "because the creation of
things satisfies the innermost desires of most builders, and the engineer
surely is a maker of things. For some engineers, dedicated to the field
of water resources, there is the age-old desire and challenge to control
the movement of water, to build large impoundments, and to construct
impressive treatment facilities. All of these systems obviously are to
be built on a river that has water of the highest purity and no histori-
cal connection with domestic or industrial use- Even if water has been
used as a transporting medium for industrial and municipal wastes, it is
still a challenge to design complicated systems satisfying the latest in
experimental equipment. The temptation is great to erect mammoth air-
compressor and air-dispersal systems which provide air in ever smaller
bubbles, and to build biological treatment systems that are continually
helping to reduce the mean flow through time. Such devices are economic
necessities in some places but not in the majority of cases.
It is of considerable significance that through the centuries the
definition of water purity has become more sophisticated. As the standard
of living has increased, the criteria of parity have become more rigid
and possibly more quantitative. In retrospect, the engineer as an indiv-
idual may have become accustomed to recommending the "Park Avenue" variety
-------
of hardware and, in some ill-advised situations, completely ignoring the
dictum that all plausible solutions to the water treatment problem must
be considered before submitting a recommendation. A case in point is the
small-town sewage treatment plant. In most cases the engineer knows full
well that the operational control required of this "Park Avenue" treatment
plant will not be forthcoming. As a matter of fact, in the past it has
been difficult to obtain appropriate operating experience for the plants
servicing the larger cities.
Has it been complete disregard for economic principles which has led
the engineer to choose the sophisticated designs? The answer to this
question is, "Probably not."
Historical Objectives
It has been customary for engineers to be content with developing
more economical unit processes including primary sedimentation followed
by aerobic biological treatment and the anaerobic digestion processes to
stabilize the unoxidized solids.
The conventional treatment systems, for obvious economic reasons,
have not been designed to recover significant amounts of nutrients in the
waste water, these nutrients being primarily phosphorus and nitrogen com-
pounds. The total nutrients in the near future may actually exceed ten
million tons annually, and the next generation of engineers may very well
be concerned with the problem of total nutrient recovery.
The historical treatment plant, for not always obvious reasons, has
been designed to provide oxygen by mechanical means. The oxygen is uti-
lized by bacterial masses in synthesizing more cells or oxidizing the
-------
organic matter for energy-conversion purposes. The mineralized effluent
from such processes represents a considerable amount of fertilizer in the
form of inorganic solids.
Unfortunately, it is at this stage in the historical treatment proc-
esses that the conventional system begins to break down. The putrescible
material has been reduced to simple organic products, compounds of nitro-
gen, phosphorus, etc. It is not desirable to have this fertilizer in the
water because in the presence of sunlight these nutrients will support a
crop of microscopic plants. Yet this is exactly what happens. The low-
energy materials which have been added to a stream as a result of domestic
and industrial wastes are converted to high-energy forms through the proc-
ess of photosynthesis. The aquatic flora in itself is not so seriously
objectionable, but, in terms of hydraulic terminology, steady state con-
ditions of growth are difficult to maintain. Sunlight, temperature, food,
pH, and numerous other factors influence the harvest. The stream, after
receiving the expensive and highly treated effluent, is subjected to a
cyclic form of crop rotation. This is likely to be a particularly diffi-
cult problem in the future.
The tremendous fluctuations in algal blooms have not been experienced
in all sections of the country because the deposits in stream beds have
been periodically flushed out to the ocean, but, as the streams are more
rigorously controlled by the construction of impoundments, this periodic
flushing will not take place as often. This mode of water-resource control
will tend to place new pressures on the engineer to examine the manner in
which water and waste-water is usually treated.
-------
A reservoir which receives a continuous steady supply of nutrients
from an upstream source can eliminate these nutrients either through dis-
charge via downstream releases or through the transfer of these nutrients
to higher forms of life such as fish. If the fish are then removed, this
represents a net loss to the lake. However, it must be pointed out that
the base level of nutrients in a reservoir at any time in the future,
regardless of whether the reservoir has been nearly emptied and then re-
filled with dilution water, will be greater than the initial base level.
Also, the higher trophic levels, as represented by fish, are not considered
to be primary consumers of nutrient as are the bacterial and algal systems.
The Ultimate in Waste Treatment
The most efficient use of the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in
conjunction with sunlight would be to convert these materials into usable
food stuff or to put the water and nutrient on irrigable land. This
approach is not new since it has been considered in Germany and in several
investigations in this country. The scheme simply indicates that putres-
cible organic material and other materials, theoretically at least, can
be transformed into a high-energy protein substance. By using algal-
bacterial processes, it is possible to produce an amount of protein from
one acre of domestic waste-water stabilization ponds equivalent to as much
as fifty acres of irrigated cropland. The algae provide the oxygen for
aerobic bacterial synthesis and oxidation. To complete the cycle, the
algae utilize the carbon dioxide released by bacteria and obtain other
trace nutrients to propagate their own species. The difficulty in this
approach is the fact that the algal cells are very small, and they are
-------
difficult to remove from the liquid substrate.
Therefore, until it is possible to remove the algae and nutrient or
the nutrient alone, the waste-water might as well be treated as economic-
ally as possible. Nutrient releases under present conditions will be about
the same, and algae in the effluent from a waste-water treatment plant
merely moves the algal system upstream a few miles.
Waste Stabilization Fonda
Sewage oxidation ponds are not new. Sewage lagoons and oxidation
ponds have been used in Texas for at least ^0 years. Prior to this time
the Germans and the Chinese used a form of waste stabilization ponds or
sewage lagoons for treating waste and raising fish. Waste stabilization
ponds is a term, for lack of a better definition, which describes a more
recent engineering development of the earlier sewage lagoons-
Today most nations, and states in the United States utilize waste
stabilization ponds as a means of treating domestic effluents. It is esti-
mated that there are over 2,000 acres of pond surface in Texas and over
^00 cells. Most of these are a secondary form of treatment. However, it
has been reported that there are now more than 300 communities in the
Missouri Basin which use stabilization ponds as the sole mode of treatment.
Waste stabilization ponds comprise over 10 per cent of the secondary type
sewage treatment plants in the U- S. and compare very favorably with
trickling filters and ac^ivated sludge treatment methods. As shown in
Table 1, the conventional biological systems on an economic basis cannot
compare favorably with waste stabilization ponds when the population
contributing to the treatment plant is relatively small. Even when a
-------
8
population concentration of 100,000 exists, the per capita costs are still
much cheaper for the consumption of stabilization ponds.
Table 1. Per Capita Cost of Construction in 1913 Dollars for
Treatment Plants in U. S. (a)
Population
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Stabilization
Ponds
3-05
1.69
0-9^
0.52
Trickling •' ( c )
Filters
27.24
8.57
2.70
0.85
Trickling (b)
Filters
17-19
9-02
4.73
2.U8
Activated
Sludge
16.00
8.80
5-00
2.70
(a) Data only relates contract cost, or about 80$ of total first cost.
(b) U. S. Total.
(c) Without separate sludge digestion.
The operation and maintenance costs of a waste stabilization pond
are so much lower than those which would be required for the trickling
filter and activated sludge treatment systems that there is no justi-
fiable comparison. Table 2 shows the estimated annual operation and
6
maintenance cost for about 300 treatment plants.
The annual operation and maintenance costs for the primary plants
are roughly equal to the trickling filter. These costs are roughly $1.^0
per capita per year.
If it is assumed that the excess activated sludge stabilization pond
in Austin, Texas can be prepared on an equal basis, the operation and
maintenance costs are 25 cents per capita per year. At present the ponds
are receiving the BOD from equivalent population of 50,000 people-
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Table 2. Estimated Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost
Expected Annual Cost ($/cap. )
Population
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Primary
Plants
2.67
1.1*1
0.91
Activated
Sludge
9-20
3-51
1.88
1.21
Standard Rate
Trickling Filter
3-52
1-31
0-75
High Rate
Trickling Filter
^•57
1.36
0-73
Furthermore, it should be recalled that these stabilization ponds could
very readily handle twice the present load. The estimated annual operation
and maintenance costs for the activated sludge and trickling filter plants
is at least 5 to 6 times the cost of keeping a pond system. It also
should be pointed out that a great deal of dilution water must be pumped
from the river and mixed with the excess activated sludge at the Austin
plant. This is considered part of the operational costs in this partic-
ular plant and*would not be a major factor in the normal waste stabili-
zation pond system.
Sludge Stabilization Ponds
In 195^ the City of Austin, Texas, found itself in a typical sewage
treatment predicament. The inadequate conventional activated sludge
treatment plant was converted and expanded to the Biosorption process at
a cost of $390,000.00- The plant provided continuous good results for the
first time, but while the new process solved the operational problem for
maintaining a satisfactory BOD in the effluent and the immediate loading
•7
of the main plant, it did not solve the excess sludge disposal problem.
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10
It was estimated that the capital cost of the digesters of adequate size
for the 195^- load would be $750,000- The importance of this figure was
that it did not include the cost of additional drying beds or a vacuum
filter plant installation, nor provisions for future increases in load.
Assuming there is a market in Austin for filtered and heat-dried sludge
as fertilizer, which there probably isn't, there would still be a net
loss of $8-00 to $15-00 per ton of sludge processed. The City of Houston
reportedly sells their sludge for an average of $13-00 per ton but it costs
them $21.00 per ton to vacuum filter it and process it for sale.
The decision was made at Austin to try the ponding system used by
San Antonio for handling the excess solids- At San Antonio, Mitchell Lake
with a surface area of about 700 acres has been receiving some digester
supernatant, primary treated sewage and excess activated sludge for a long
time. After considerable study, a 270-acre tract of land was purchased
as a site for the sludge oxidation lake system. It is about two miles
from the treatment plant and adjoins the Colorado River.
To date, three lake systems have been designed, constructed and put
into operation. The capacities are 4l, 65, and 85 acres.
The capital and operating costs are as follows:
Land $120,000.00
Construction (complete) ^55,OOP.00
Total Capital Cosss $575,000-00
Operational Costs $ 12,500.00/yr.
It is estimated that the operating costs during 1958 when the ponds were
not even loaded to capacity was $4-80 per ton on a dry weight basis.
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11
This represents a substantial saving as compared to other types of treat-
ment- Also, at this time there appears to "be a fair market for the bait
and larger forage fish which appear to thrive in the lakes.
There have been no serious problems in the operation. Embankments
were graveled to prevent erosion, and a gasoline driven paddle wheel was
mounted on a raft to disperse floating algal masses which sometimes accu-
mulate in a corner as a result of wind action.
The following is an abstract of the I960 Annual Report of the Sewage
Treatment Plant, Austin, Texas, describing the ponds:
5- day BOD Total Pounds 3,8l8,505
Pounds per acre per day, Average 55
Pounds per acre per day, Maximum 165
Pounds per acre per day, Minimum 0
Suspended Solids, Total Pounds
Pounds per acre per day, Average j6
Total Plow into Lakes (M- G« )
1. Excess Activated Sludge 100-7
2. Digester Overflow k. 9
3- River Water ^83.7
Total Plow Out (M-G- ) Estimated 2,877.3
5 -Day BOD in Effluent (ppm) Average 17-2
5-Day BOD in Effluent (ppm) Maximum ^2-0
5-Day BOD in Effluent (ppm) Minimum 1.2
It should be noted that the first lake (^1 acres) received an average
loading of 200 pounds of BOD per acre per day which represented 90$ or
more of the excess sludge production in 1958. This loading might cause
some concern, but, by the addition of the new 85-acre and 65-acre lakes,
there is sufficient lake capacity to dispose of twice the present sludge
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12
production*
A Ransom for Nutrients
One of the biggest problems in water quality control is that of exces-
sive nutrients in the water. Domestic wastes add a considerable amount
of phosphorus and nitrogen to the water. As a matter of fact, domestic
sewage is a rich source of the nutrients generally required by phyto-
plankton. However, it is noteworthy to mention that domestic sewage does
not really provide a balanced diet for microorganisms. There is an over-
abundance of phosphorus as compared to both carbon and nitrogen. The or-
ganic carbon is usually limited in the case of activated sludge. Generally,
carbon is not limiting in the case of algae because adequate amounts of
carbon are normally available in the form of alkalinity.
As a matter of interest, normal phosphorus removal in a sewage treat-
ment plant ranges from 2% for primary treatment to an average of 23$ for
k
the plants employing biological treatment.
The possibility of removing nutrients, particularly phosphorus, by
select species of algae is also realistic. The work of Bogan and others
have shown that it is possible to remove nearly all the phosphates very
rapidly by algal cultures. It was shown in this work that the phosphate
concentration could be reduced from 20 or more mg/1 to less than 5'mg/l
in less than four hours. The algae were responsible in absorbing or
aiding the coagulation of the phosphates where removal of large amounts
of phosphates were involved- However, common metabolic conversion is the
principal mechanism of removal when a typical waste stabilization pond is
employed.
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13
The algae in phosphorus removal operations serve two purposes. In
one case, an abundance of cell production will naturally accumulate a
greater amount of phosphorus. In the second case, the phosphate removal
is dependent upon a high pH, and, if adequate lighting is available for
an abundance of algal production, the pH is increased. This latter re-
quirement creates somewhat of a paradox in actual waste stabilization
pond operation because the light intensity in the deeper pond is not
generally adequate for the production of maximum numbers of cells nor maxi-
mum pH maintenance- When the day comes that algae might be utilized for
both waste treatment and phosphate recovery, a totally different design
will be needed. This day may not be in the too far distant future. At
the present, a choice must be made whether to remove the phosphorus by
maximum algal production or to maintain only a sufficient algal popula-
tion to provide adequate amounts of oxygen for the bacterial population.
Fish are a less efficient means of nutrient removal but possibly adequate
to serve the present needs. A source of revenue might also be found in
fish for cat food, feed supplement, etc.
Simplicity of Design
Waste stabilization ponds are economical because ponds may be designed
to provide treatment of any wastes that can be oxidized biologically. The
engineer must always remember, however, that the water to be treated has
been contaminated and will be esthetically unacceptable to the general
public.
It is desirable that some form of pre-treatment of the waste be the
rule rather than the exception. Screening, in general, and preferably
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grinding should be provided for domestic waste to remove unsightly float-
ing material. This type of pre-treatment is also necessary for most indus-
trial wastes.
Sufficient acreage should be obtained to prevent encroachment by
residential subdivisions. If isolation cannot be obtained, additional
volume should be added to the ponds, .'or sedimentation as a pre-treatment
should be provided.
Ponds with sufficient storage usually exhibit an exceptionally high
degree of coliform removal. In this respect, waste stabilization ponds
may be used for providing a higher degree of treatment in combination with
other types of treatment-
The principal factors affecting the design of stabilization ponds
are light, temperature, waste characteristics, degree of isolation, and
topographical features. If BOD reduction is the primary objective, it is
not necessary to have maximum penetration of light. It is possible for
anaerobic decomposition to take place in certain sections of the pond,
namely at deeper levels, but this has no adverse effect on the overall
performance as long as aerobic conditions prevail over the surface. In
most cases, the oxidation reduction potential at the depths where there
is no apparent dissolved oxygen will indicate an aerobic-type environment
rather than a true anaerobic system. Temperature appears to be of consider-
able importance^ Since the rate of biochemical oxidation is largely a
function of the bacterial activity, pond requirements must be based on
winter loading rates. However, excessively high temperatures during the
summer may either produce an odor problem or an overproduction of algae.
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15
There have been cases where the water temperatures have increased in very
shallow ponds to the point where the algal p.opulation was severely restricted
and anaerobic bacterial systems created a considerable odor problem* This
situation can be remedied generally by maintaining a somewhat deeper pond
level, five feet or more- This increase in depth during the summer repre-
sents a basic change in pond philosophy. This will permit higher summer
loading rates and the pond temperature will be roughly the same as the
mean annual temperature. Since surface aeration alone will probably not
provide more than twelve to sixteen pounds of oxygen per acre per day, the
algae must provide the remaining oxygen-
If color in the effluent is a problem, series operation is a necessity.
A lower algae concentration and generally higher quality effluent will re-
sult from ponds constructed in series. If the first pond is receiving
raw sewage, it should be larger than the remaining ponds or septic condi-
tions will prevail. Although the shape of the ponds is. usually determined
by topography, it is necessary to eliminate all stagnant corners. All the
dikes should be well constructed. The top of the dike should be wide
enough for automobile traffic. Gravel placed on the inner slope has proven
to be very effective where wave action presents a problem. Other more per-
manent forms of lining probably reduce maintenance but greatly increase
the cost of the installation.
Multiple inlets and outlets in the first pond are highly desirable.
In this connection, it is important to have the bottom of the pond cleared
of brush and other material before filling.
Every precaution should be taken in the design to prevent the possible
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16
"breeding of mosquitoes, collection of floating algal masses, stagnant
areas, and pollution of ground water through porous formations. Bank
control will help eliminate the mosquito problem. Agitation of stagnant
areas will prevent scum formation. Finally, ttentonite is frequently help-
ful in sealing the bottom of the ponds.
The Economic Balance
The measure commonly employed in totaling was tie-water treatment is
"BOD removal" from a municipal or an industrial source. This is not an
ideal measure, since other yardsticks (color and nutrienti for example)
may still prevent the use of water for other downstream purposes- In
water deficient areas, the color problem has not usually been considered
a serious threat to quality- However, the immediate removal of readily
putrescible material and the destn^^ion of enteric organisms is of con-
siderable importance in all areas of the country. Where there are a limited
number of dollars available, the climati" conditions are favorable, and
the geographical conditions permit, the engineer in all sincerity must
consider the possibility of designing and \isiag waste stabilization ponds.
Except where land costs are excessively high and where population densities
are much greater than are normally experienced in most sections of che
United States, waste stabilization ponds are r.he least, expensive of all
the presently knowa fonrs of domestic wast-e treat-meat.
Tbere are many problems which the engineer faces in the treatment
of waste wafers. As in all was^e-treatment systems, the waste stabiliza-
tion pond is not now nor should it be the ultimate answer for treating
municipal and industrial wastes. At least twenty years of intensive
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17
research and development is required to answer problems which arise in the
field.
Conclusions
1. Waste stabilization ponds may be designed and operated economically
under a wide variety of conditions.
2. If necessary, a waste stabilization pond may be designed to accom-
plish all of the functions normally provided by partial and complete sewage
treatment plants.
3- In addition to a nominal amount of light, temperature is the most
important factor. Excessively high temperatures and shallow depths can
produce nuisance problems as well as low temperature operations.
k. Although waste stabilization ponds are the least expensive means
of treating domestic waste today, the following research and development
suggestions and questions are submitted.
a. Field studies should be made to determine the effectiveness of
mechanical aerators in the first of a series of stabilization
ponds. Certain efficient low-lift pumps and cavitators may help
to develop an extremely active biological floe and thereby
assist decomposition of the putrescible waste*
b- The effectiveness of fish farming as a means of nutrient removal
should be more thoroughly investigated.
c. Additional algal and nutrient removal schemes should be investi-
gated.
d. Specific information is needed to determine the role of oxidation-
reduction potentials in biologically active systems throughout
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18
the waste stabilization ponds.
e. Considering various temperatures, what portion of the biochemical
oxygen demand of an organic waste is satisfied by photosynthetic
oxygenation? What fractions of the BOD are satisfied by oxygen
from chemical sources and from the atmosphere?
f. What is the effect of temperature as the sole variable on waste
stabilization ponds?
g. Fundamental studies should yield considerable information regard-
ing the cycling effect of algal cell production and variation in
species that is so obvious but difficult to explain.
h. It is desirable to know the relationships between the pond and
ambient temperatures as they affect the growth characteristics
of the algae.
i. What is the effective storage capacity of the bottom sediments
as regards nitrogen and phosphorus?
j. Is there a health problem associated with the use of waste stabi-
lization ponds for raising bait and forage fish?
k. In the larger lakes, what health significance might be associated
with the use of these ponds as a duck and other wild life refuge?
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19
REFERENCES
1- Bogan, R. H., et al., "Use of Algae in Removing Phosphorus From Sewage,"
J. Sanitary Engineering Division, ASCE, 86, No. SA5, 1-20 (Sept. I960).
2« Hermann, E. R., and Gloyna, E- F-, "Waste Stabilization Ponds--Parts
I, II, and III," J. Sewage and Industrial Wastes, 50, 511-538 (Apr. 1958).
3* Heuvelen, W. V-, et al., "Waste Stabilization Lagoons," J. Water Pollu-
tion Control Federation, 32, 909-917 (Sept. 1Q60).
k* Owen, R. , "Removal of Phosphorus From Sewage Plant Effluent with Lime,"
J. Sewage and Industrial Waste, 25, 5^8 (May 1953).
5- Rowan, P. P., et al., "Sewage Treatment Construction Costs," J. Water
Pollution Control Federation, 32, 59^-604 (June I960).
6- Rowan, P. P., "Estimating Sewage Treatment Plants Operation and Main-
tenance Costs," J. Water Pollution Control Federation, 33; 111-121
(February 1961).
7. Ullrich, A. H., Annual Report, Division of Sewage Treatment, City of
Austin, Texas (1958).
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NOTES
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NOTES
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NOTES
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MUST STREAM QUALITY BE MAINTAINED?
F. W. Kittrell
Public Health Engineer
Field Operations Section
Technical Services Branch
WS&PC
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Robert A. Taft Sanitary Engineering Center
Cincinnati 26, Ohio
My first reaction to the question which is the subject of this dis-
cussion was that I could dispose of it in short order with a simple,
unequivocal "Yes."
On second thought, however, faint doubts started to arise regarding
the adequacy of such a simple, straightforward answer. When I considered
means of resolving those first faint doubts not only did they refuse to
vanish but they actually grew bigger and stronger and in turn produced a
brood of lusty offspring. Finally I was faced with such an array of
clamoring doubts that I was driven to the reluctant conclusion that here
was a question that required strenuous mental effort. After undergoing
the necessary, even though distasteful, mental effort I have come, with
mixed emotions, to the inevitable conclusion that here is a question that
I, alone, cannot answer. The mixed emotions include both amazement and
relief. The amazement derives from the realization that, despite some
thirty years in this business of stream sanitation, I cannot glibly answer
For presentation at Water Resources Conference, Dallas, Texas
May 2U-26, 1961
-------
all the questions involved in arriving at a sound decision regarding the
need for maintaining water quality. The relief steins from the realization
that I, alone, do not have to assume the awesome responsibility for the
ultimate decision.
As a matter of fact, neither this group, as well informed and
competent as you are, nor the Public Health Service, with its weighty
responsibilities in the field, can make this decision. It is a decision
which, under our form of government, the public must make.
We cannot, however, lightly dismiss a-ii of our responsibilities
in this matter by shifting them to the broad shoulders of the public.
We must make up our own minds regarding what we believe about maintenance
of water quality and provide the public with an honest and sound basis
to assist him in reaching his decision. Which brings us full cycle back
to our starting point of having to face up to a very complex and challeng-
ing question. Although I am not, and I am quite sure you are not, vain
enough to believe that we can come up with complete and final answers here
and now, I do believe that we can make some useful progress toward the
answers we need.
Those who designed this program made an already difficult problem
even more difficult by a ground rule with which they sought to anchor us
-------
speakers to terra firma and to prevent us from soaring into orbit in the
stratosphere. This ground rule states "Remember that you are talking to
professionals, not laymen, and minimize generalities and philosophy as
much as possible." The qualification "minimize - as much as possible"
provides a loophole of which I propose to take, indeed I must take,
full advantage. Otherwise, our problem would be insoluble. I have a
sneaking, though unconfirmed, suspicion that the program designers
hopefully may have believed that all the subjects they propounded
might be dealt with exclusively by an engineering approach, supported
by incontestable facts and figures. I submit that the subject
represented by the question "Must Water Quality Be Maintained?" can
be resolved only by venturing into the philosophical realms of emotions
and of morals, as well as into the more prosaic field of engineering.
Only a mnaii portion of the answers to this question will come from
manipulation of the slide rule. The major portion of the answers
ultimately will come from the secret and poorly understood workings
of the mind of that aggregate man, the public, and will be influenced
by his emotions and, we hope, by his morals, when he deposits his
decision in the ballot box.
-------
In order to come to grips with our problem, which I already
have delayed as long as I decently can, we must reach some agreement
on definitions and limits of the subject matter. For example, what does
the first word "must" imply. Among other things Webster says it means
"obliged by logical necessity" and "morally required." Both of these
are acceptable meanings for our purpose, but they do not go quite far
enough. We must, and we shall attempt to, determine whether "must"
means absolutely and without exception, or does it allow some latitude
for the exercise of Judgment? Also, it fails to take the time element
into account. Does it imply that we must start maintenance now, or does
it permit the flexibility which will allow us to Justify postponement
of action on an anticipated need to some future date when the potential
need becomes an actuality?
Likewise Webster is of some help on "maintain", but again his
definition, "To hold or keep in any particular state or condition,"
does not go nearly far enough. What state or condition must we hold?
Must it be the natural state, the present polluted state, or some
future improved state? If it is to be an improved state where do we
draw the line regarding the degree of improvement?
-------
I trust that we need not to go to Webster for a definition of
water, but his definitions of quality as "Natural superiority in
kind" and "Excellence of character" fit right in with the state in
which we would prefer to keep our waters. Unfortunately, we must temper
this highly desirable state of affairs with considerations of practical-
ity of achievement.
Let1 s decide just what we want to talk ebout so that we can
confine our discussion within reasonable limits. I suggest as our
objective the development of such guidelines as we can agree upon
which will best serve our attempts to plan water quality maintenance
programs. The «•*" of such planning should be to assure, within limits
of available quantity, water of such quality at such places and such
times as will best serve the public welfare.
The objective of water planning frequently is expressed as
development of a plan which will assure maximum development of the
region involved. I am not sure Just what is implied by "maximum
development" but I am inclined to think of it in terms of the most
people that the area will support. I am not sure that the most
people is what we really want. After all, the maximum development
-------
of a land area in terms of number of people is represented by our
city slums. Obviously this is not a type of situation that we want,
for most of our major cities, aided by both state and Federal govern-
ments, are spending huge sums of money to dismantle slum areas and
distribute the overcrowded populations to other areas where they
have more room and more healthful and pleasant living conditions.
By analogy, the greatest possible number of people using our streams
would reduce the streams to dead, lifeless, and stinking sources
of contagion with minimum usefulness and no aesthetic appeal. I am
quite sure that this type of maximum development neither is wanted
nor will be tolerated.
It is for this reason that I prefer to state our objective as
maximum service to the public welfare rather than as ma.yi m^m develop-
ment of an area. And it is around the problem of what water uses
truly are best for the public welfare that all our vexations, our
doubts, and our soul searching center. Is it possible that we are
assuming too much responsibility in this area? Do we, as public health
engineers, feel obliged in our water planning to evaluate all of the
innumerable and highly complex factors that influence the public
welfare? If so, we are setting ourselves an impossible task, for we
-------
simply are not equipped with either «"n of the knowledge or all of
the visdom necessary for the task. We are presumptous if ve assume
that ve are so equipped. When ve recognize this ve can begin to
think about the other disciplines that ve must call on to work with
us and assist us in reaching our decisions. I am sure ve shall feel
more comfortable about our problem vhen ve reach this state of maturity.
Even vhen ve thus resolve some portion of our concern ve still are
faced with the fact that there exist within our own field of competence
considerable areas in which we yet have much to learn. If there were no
such areas there would be little or no need for the professional public
health engineer and no necessity for the exercise of judgment. If ve
knew all we needed to know someone long ago would have produced a
handbook, uxsookbook style, which anyone could follow to produce a sound
water quality management plan. We soon would be out of vork.
In seeking our guidelines let's start with such generally
accepted precedents as we already have before ve soar into the realm
of speculation.
Probably our soundest precedent is that of riparian rights.
In this country the riparian rights doctrine was borrowed from the
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8
English system of Jurisprudence, where the doctrine had been in
effect for many, many decades. This doctrine is lav in about
two-thirds of our states. It assures all owners of property
adjacent to a stream the right to use of the natural undiminished
flow of the stream with its natural quality unimpaired by upstream
use.
The other third of our states employ the doctrine of prior
appropriation. This vests the right of beneficial consumptive use
of water quantity in the user who first establishes his right to
such use. This type of use, however, is of a usufructuary
character. Again turning to Webster we find that usufructuary means
having or possessing a usufruct, which is of little help. Tracking
down usufruct, however, we find that this means "the right of using —
the fruits — of an estate or other thing belonging to another without
impairing the substance." To me, this Implies that the right to
quantitative use does not include permission to alter the natural
quality of any water of the stream which is not used or which is
used and returned to the stream.
Thus we have a clear, legal mandate from the public, through
our laws on water rights, that the natural quality of our streams
-------
9
is to "be maintained. I am not aware that either of the two doctrines
awards the user of water the right to impair the quality of the
stream provided he decides that it is too costly for him to maintain
the natural quality.
The legal mandate is clearly supported by the emotional
attitude of the public. Man has an instinctive affinity for water.
His very body is more than ninety percent of the stuff. The
biologists tell us that life itself originated in the sea, and that
somewhere along the evolutionary chain our ancestors emerged from
their watery home to begin their struggle for existence on dry land.
Man always has been restricted in his travels by the need for an
ever present source of drinking water to maintain life, or else
he has had to carry his drinking water with him. Before he was
able to transport substantial quantities of water for considerable
distances he lived, as a matter of necessity and of convenience,
very close to a body of water. All of these associations appear
to have left their imprint in that recess of the mind of Man in
which his instinct resides. Man instinctively loves water. Even
as a baby there are few pleasures that he enjoys more than his
daily bath. As a child some of his happiest moments are spent
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10
wading in water, with or without shoes, splashing in it, and sailing
toy boats on it. As an adult, water has a tremendous appeal when
he seeks the recreation that is so essential to his welfare. He
loves to swim in and under it, glide over it in a boat or on skiis,
take fish from it, and just sit and look at it. On vacation he will
travel hundreds of miles to enjoy his favorite body of water, be it
ocean, lake, or turbulent mountain stream. His first requirement in
considering a suitable location for a summer cottage of his own
usually is that it be within sight of a body of water. But the sense
of pleasure that he derives from association with clear, clean,
sparkling water gives way to frustration, disgust, even rage, if
the water exhibits observable effects of pollution.
I use the word "observable" advisedly, for the public judges
the condition of streams most often by what they can see and smell.
Occasionally they may condemn a stream by the taste of their drink-
ing water, but more often they are apt to blame the poor water
plant operator for putting too much of "that chlorine" in the treated
water. But when they see feces, condoms, toilet paper, rags, grease,
and the infinite variety of other solids discharged from sewers
floating on or bobbing in a stream, they know that stream is polluted.
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11
When they see excessively muddy or unnaturally colored water, they
conclude that the stream is polluted. When a stream carries an
excessive organic load which imparts that typical grey, dull,
lifeless appearance the public knows it is polluted. When they
smell the rotten egg odor of hydrogen sulfide evolved from sludge
deposits or from a septic stream they are convinced that pollution
is the cause. When they no longer can catch fish, or if their
catch consists of carp or other scavengers and does not include
game fish, they "blame pollution. And I am not aware of many things
in this life that can arouse such public hue and cry as the sight
of a stream and its "banks littered with dead and decaying fish.
Even those who are not fishermen become indignant. Perhaps the
uproar is aroused by the loss of a few hundred pounds of meat, but
I suspect that more probably it results from revulsion at the visual
evidence that the stream is sick with pollution.
These, then, are the sensible evidences of pollution which we
must control. I am convinced that we have a mandate from the public,
based in large degree on emotions, to keep our streams from looking
and smelling polluted. Unless we maintain the waters of our streams
in some semblance of their natural appearance the public will give
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12
us very little credit for our water quality control efforts, no matter
what our success In controlling effects of unseen pollution may be.
If the public frequently sees or smells the effects of stream
pollution there will be very little Incentive for them to continue
to support water quality control programs.
The emotions which are Involved In the public's reactions
to what they can see and smell have led to legal means of protection
against generally unpleasant conditions which arouse those emotions.
This protection is provided by our ordinances on nuisances. These
ordinances assure the individual that he does not have to put up
with unduly unpleasant sights, odors, noises, and a multitude of
other conditions to which his senses and emotions react adversely.
The general principle that no one has a right to impose a nuisance
on someone else has been accepted without question by those who have
responsibilities for stream pollution control. Everyone in this
business agrees that no nuisance shall result from stream pollution.
Even those who reach the reluctant conclusion that economics dictate
that certain streams must be abandoned to waste disposal insist
that such use shall not result in production of nuisances, regardless
of the cost of prevention. This insistence is reflected in the stream
pollution control laws or regulations of practically every state.
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13
The portions of the codes involving nuisances reflect major concern
over prevention of odor nuisances, since most of them specify main-
tenance of some minimum dissolved oxygen content, low though it
may be.
Another principal firmly established by pollution control
agencies also is based on the public's emotional reactions to
nuisances. This principal is the almost universal agreement that
all domestic sewage should be subjected to a minimum of primary
treatment. Many state pollution control agencies also require
that industrial wastes be subjected to equivalent treatment, which
basicly involves the removal of floating and settleable solids.
Why do our control agencies generally agree on these requirements?
We know that primary treatment accomplishes very little in the
reduction of the unseen effects of pollution. The primary sewage
plant effluent contains 60 to 75 percent of the initial biochemical
oxygen demand, 30 to 60 percent of the suspended solids, and 25 to
75 percent of the pathogenic bacteria. I consider the relatively
small fractions removed as a minor accomplishment at best. It would
be interesting to know how many primary treatment plants have solved
dissolved oxygen problems. I suspect that the number of those which
-------
have accomplished this would be a very small percentage of the
total that have been built. The usual primary sewage plant
turns loose into the receiving stream at least one-half, and
probably more, of the pathogenic bacteria in the raw sewage.
This residue presents a health hazard to all who use the water
downstream for recreation. Ify own reaction is that I would
have little, if any, more hesitation in swimming in a stream
carrying raw sewage than in one carrying a primary effluent.
1 would not swim in either, and 1 do not feel comfortable
boating on either.
In spite of the deficiencies of primary treatment we
generally agree that it must be provided for all sewage and
many industrial wastes, regardless of cost. I am convinced
we have agreed to this requirement because it does control
those things which the public can see and smell. The floating
solids which offend the eyes and the suspended solids which
produce sludge banks to offend the nose are controlled.
The benefits of preventing these offenses certainly are
intangible ones to which no dollar and cents value presently
can be attached. We accept the requirement of primary treatment
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15
on such an intangible basis without bothering to attempt a balance
of costs against monetary benefits. Why, then, do we become so
concerned over balancing costs against monetary benefits when we
are dealing with the unseen effects of pollution, such as the
hazardous billions of pathogenic organisms which escape from
primary sewage treatment plants, or the dissolved organic solids
in industrial wastes which may deplete the dissolved oxygen below
levels that will support a balanced fish population? There appears
to be a degree of inconsistency here, which may be one of the
reasons for some of our soul searching over how much waste treat-
ment we should recommend.
I trust we can agree at this point that we have legal
support both in our water rights laws for seeking high degrees
of waste treatment, and in our nuisance ordinances for essentially
complete control of observable effects of pollution. It is my
opinion that the public1s affinity for water and their reaction,
emotional if you please, to evidences of defilement by pollution
have played an Important part In the evolution of these laws.
Thus far we have not approached our problem from the stand-
point of morals. It should be easy, it appears to me, to reach
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16
agreement on this phase of the problem. Either it is right for
a municipality or an industry to discharge pollutional material
which imposes on downstream users of water or it is wrong.
I see little real difference between such discharge of refuse
and that of pitching my garbage across the fence into my
neighbor's yard as the easiest way to dispose of it, or of
allowing my underground sewage disposal field to spew sewage
across my neighbor's property line because it would cost me too
much to repair it. I spend money to avoid defiling my neighbor's
property. I would consider it wrong, and would be nagged by a
very guilty conscience, if 1 did otherwise. Should the conscience
of the corporation, be it municipal or industrial, be any less
acute? Unfortunately the corporate conscience frequently appears
to be much less acute, and at times even non-existent. Fortunate-
ly our society has laws to deal with its members who have no
consciences. When persuasion fails the law should be brought
into play to make those do right who otherwise would do wrong, or
at least to stop them from doing wrong.
Perhaps you think I have talked too much about the law in
my preceding discussions. 1 have intentionally emphasized the legal
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17
factors. I think we sanitary engineers and economists are prone
to become so intent on our engineering and economic calculations,
evaluations, and Judgments that we are apt to forget the intent
of our lavs and to substitute instead our own opinions as guiding
principles. Perhaps our opinions are more valid in this particular
field than are the laws of our land. If so, ultimately, the laws
will be changed to reflect our opinions. Until that time, I
consider it incumbent on us to bring our recommendations on waste
disposal into line with the intent of our laws.
In patterning our recommendations after the intent of our
laws we must follow the interpretations of the laws.evolved by
the courts. The judicial interpretation of the doctrine of
riparian rights, for example, appears to be leaning in the
direction of reasonable use that will not interfere unduly
with downstream uses, rather than demanding strictly that there
be absolutely no interference with such uses. This trend
immediately brings us face to face with decisions regarding how
much interferences with downstream uses will we permit. Let's
see what precedents we have to guide us in these decisions. There may
not be all we need, but at least they can serve as a starting point.
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18
Our "best precedents probably are those used as guides or as
requirements of state water pollution control agencies. I had
occasion fairly recently to review state practices in this matter,
and found that there is more agreement among the states on certain
factors than you might expect. Almost all who have produced
official statements on requirements prohibit floating solids and
suspended solids that will cause sludge "banks. About two-thirds
of the states have official requirements or are members of inter-
state groups which seek to maintain monthly average MPN's of
coliform organisms of less than 5*000 per 100 ml for both sources
of domestic water supply, and for general recreation, such as
fishing and boating. About the same number specify average
MPN's of less than 1,000 per 100 ml for swimming and other water
sports involving body contact. Again, the same two-thirds of the
states seek to maintain average dissolved oxygen concentrations
of at least 5 mg/1. Most of the states recognize the Public Health
Service drinking water standards both for finished drinking water
in toto and for streams as regards those numerous constituents,
principally inorganic in nature, which are not eliminated or
controlled by conventional water treatment methods. Finally,
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19
practically all states recognize the public's insistence that fish
be protected. This recognition is reflected in requirements that
constituents harmful to fish and other aquatic life be held below
toxic or lethal limits. These combined requirements, on which at
least a majority of the state pollution control agencies agree,
furnish a substantial base on which to build in reaching decisions
regarding the degree of waste treatment needed to maintain water
quality. I judge that application of these requirements, plus
others which are not covered but may be selected at comparable
levels, will assure maintenance of water quality which will serve
the public welfare.
Thus far I have not touched on water uses as a basis for
determining needed water quality. I am sure I do not even need
to suggest to this group that water uses must be considered.
If there is no use of a particular stream there is little justifi-
cation for concern over water quality. I maintain, however, that
there are few streams in this country which are so isolated that
they cannot be reached by car or by boat for fishing and other
aquatic recreation. Streams protected for fish and other aquatic
life, and for recreation, will have water of a quality which will
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20
meet the needs of most other uses to which they may be put. Even if
we can prove now that a stream, or a portion of a stream is inaccess-
ible, how can we say that fifty years from now, or within whatever
period we select for planning, the same stream still will be inaccess-
ible? While we may not insist on immediate protection of an isolated
stream, in letting the bars down we must make it clear that this is
a temporary expedient only and the bars will go up again as soon as
accessibility to the stream may be imminent.
Many years ago our progenitors in sanitary engineering pro-
pounded an engaging proposition to which those responsible for sources
of wastes immediately and enthusiastically agreed, and unswervingly
have supported since that time. This proposition is that all streams
should be used, where needed, for waste disposal up to the maximum
assimilative capacities of the streams. In the beginning of my
professional career I subscribed to that view and spent a great deal
of time sampling, analyzing, and computing to the first or second
decimal just what the assimilative capacities of streams were. I do
not deny that I found this entrancing. Gradually over the years, how-
ever, I have become disenchanted with that philosophy. I cannot pin-
point my reasons for this disenchantment. Perhaps the one factor, more
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21
than any other, which has changed my viewpoint has been my realiza-
tion, gradual at first but finally overwhelming, that we are
steadily losing the battle against stream pollution. Perhaps I have
associated an undeniable result with the wrong cause, but I cannot
help but believe that the philosophy of maximum use of assimilative
capacity has been one of the major stumbling blocks to effective
stream pollution control. At least twenty years ago I heard
Dr. Abel Wolman expound the philosophy that we should obtain all
of the waste treatment that we could within economic limits. At that
time such a thought was heresy. Yet last December in our Nation's
capitol a substantial sector of the National Conference on Water
Pollution agreed in principle with Dr. Wolman1 s earlier stand.
Please note such panel conclusions as:
1. "The users of water do not have an inherent
right to pollute";
2. "Users of public waters have a responsibility
for returning them as clean as is technically
possible";
3. "We recommend that the conference express Its
conviction that the goal of pollution abatement
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22
3. is to protect and enhance the capacity of the
water resource to serve the widest possible
range of human needs, and that this goal can
be approached only by accepting the positive
policy of keeping vaters as clean as possible,
as opposed to the negative policy of attempting
to use the full capacity of water for waste
disposal."
It appears to me that every avenue of approach that I have
taken in seeking an answer to the question "Must We Maintain Water
Quality?" has led to the same conclusion, that we must maintain
water quality at a high level indeed. These approaches have
included consideration of our basic water rights and nuisance
ordinances, the public's emotional involvement and rights in the
matter, the rights and wrongs, or morals, of the problem, the
requirements of state pollution control agencies with long years
of experience back of them, and finally the latest expression of
opinion of a substantial segment of the profession which is con-
cerned with water quality and the effects of wastes thereon.
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23
Against this impressive array of affirmative answers I am
aware of only one negative answer that may be advanced. That is
the common, inevitable defense of those who oppose corrective
measures that "We cannot afford waste treatment." My reply is
that I have seen a lot of municipal and industrial waste treatment
plants in my day and I am not aware of a single town or industry
that has been driven into bankruptcy by having to finance waste
treatment facilities. I do know of two small pulp and paper
mills that reached the final decision to close down at the times
when pressure was brought on them to provide waste treatment.
Both of these were marginal operations, at best, with daily
capacities of 80 and 120 tons of paper, which are small mills
indeed. I am sure that many economic factors, exclusive of the
cost of waste treatment but including dwindling supplies of
pulpwood, entered into the decisions to close. While we must
sympathize with the limited numbers of employees that lost
their jobs, I cannot believe that such marginal plants contributed
substantially to the welfare of the communities involved.
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I admit that I did not know where I was headed when I
started preparing this discussion. Instead of attempting to
guide my arguments I have tried to let them lead me to a
conclusion. Probably the rambling nature of my discussion
reflects this groping. In any event, I believe it has led
me to a more honest and sincere conclusion than I would have
reached if I had formed a preconceived answer, My first
reaction that a simple, unequivocal "Yes" was the only answer
needed has been modified somewhat, but I still believe that
a positive answer, with explanations and possibly a few
exceptions to prove the rule, is the proper answer.
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NOTES
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NOTES
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NOTES
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DRAFT :MESCHEIDT:3-l6-6l
Principles and Policies for the
Evaluation and Reimbursement of Water Supply and Pollution
Abatement Benefits from Federal Water Storage Projects
Introduction
This paper deals with the problems associated with evaluating and
paying for the benefits derived from the use of water stored in Federal
reservoirs for those purposes which are the concern of the Public Health
Service. These are municipal and industrial water supply, and water
pollution abatement by means of dilution through augmentation of low river
flows. These purposes are hereafter called simply "water supply" and
"dilution" or "low flow augmentation", as the case may be. The paper is
confined to a discussion of the principles and policy issues involved. If
and when these principles and policies are agreed to, it will be desirable
to prepare more detailed procedural guides for their effectuation, but no
attempt has been made herein to delineate such procedures.
As a basis for the discussion of these problems, it is desirable to
make clear certain tenets or concepts on which the discussion has been based.
These are:
1. Primary effort in pollution abatement should be toward
the reduction or elimination of polluting wastes at the
source, by means of waste treatment plants or other means.
2. Dilution is not a substitute for waste removal, but should
be looked upon, rather as a supplement to a program of
treatment and of ultimate removal. In-tho lafrfacp-eaase,
prevlsian^jQf-dilut4oa=»ater nhmvVfl—hr—pnnnMn-Rd. a qfTonflmr
defense, an interlmndeamire, to be-jcesoxbed^to^njiJiifepOFary
basis_pending the time j^es_bjti.er_treatment methods-can^be
"developed.
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3. The costs of waste treatment or removal should rest first
with those producing the wastes, but, beyond this, the costs
of storing dilution water producing widespread benefits
should be non-reimbursable.
k. In providing storage for a water supply, the necessity of
providing additional water for the dilution of the resulting
treated waste effluents should be recognized.
5. In developing Federal reservoir sites, every effort should
be made to conserve their full potentialities >through
development of optimum storage capacity.
While the measurement of benefits usually enters into the formula
for determining the costs to be assessed against or allocated to the
various purposes of a multiple purpose Federal reservoir project, the
actual measurement and evaluation of the benefits themselves is a
separate problem from that of deciding who should pay the costs of pro-
viding them. The two problems are dealt with separately in the following
two sections.
Section I
Criteria for Assigning Water Supply and Pollution Abatement Benefits
to Federal Storage Reservoir Projects as a Basis for Determining Reimburse-
ment Policy.
(a) Water Supply. The basis for including water supply storage
in Federal projects, and the requirements for the reimbursement of the costs
thereof, are specifically prescribed in P. L. 500 «• 8jth Congress, and need no
further elaboration here.
(b) Pollution Abatement. Decisions regarding the reimbursement
policy to be followed in dealing with pollution abatement "benefits resulting
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- 3 -
from releases of water stored in Federal reservoirs are complicated by
questions of public policy concerning the use of dilution as a means of
abating pollution. Two categories of benefits are involved; incidental
benefits, and planned benefits.
1. Incidental benefits. When low stream flow augmentation is
produced as a result of the operation of a Federal project for other
purposes, such as flood control; navigation, or municipal water supply, an
incidental improvement in the quality of the waters of the stream usually
takes place. This improvement may be due to the dilution of wastes or
other pollutants which the stream carries, to an increase in the dissolved
oxygen of the stream, or perhaps to a lowering of its temperature. Detri-
ments may also occur, as when oxygen deficient water is released from the
bottom levels of reservoirs. While these benefits are generally not
planned for in the design of the project, and usually do not enter into
the computations of benefit-cost ratios, they are nevertheless very real
and should in some fashion be credited to, or in the case of detriments,
charged against, the project. This is usually done by means of a separate
discussion or presentation in the project report, including a monetary
evaluation wherever this is possible. Under the circumstances described,
it appears entirely proper to credit the Federal project on a non-reim-
bursable basis with these incidental pollution abatement benefits, even
where the improvement -in stream quality results in a windfall benefit to
those causing pollution in the stream by making it possible for them to
postpone construction of treatment works which would otherwise be required.
One caution needs to be raised regarding such cases, however. Because of
population increase, economic growth, or changes in stream quality standards
-------
resulting from adoption of new sociological or environmental objectives,
such windfall benefits should never be looked upon as continuing on a
permanent basis. Their evaluation should be based upon the timing of
future stream quality requirements as determined by the best possible
projections of probable future demands upon the stream, and the duration
of the benefits and the corresponding credits to the Federal project should
be limited accordingly.
2. Planned benefits. In addition to the situation described above,
improvement in stream quality through release of stored water may be
specifically provided for in planning a water storage project. At the
present time, no general authorization exists for the inclusion of this
purpose in the design of Federal projects, but in several instances it has
been specifically included in the authorization of individual projects, and
studies now underway are recognizing this potentiality. It is expected
that such authorizations may increase in the future, and the problem of
assigning responsibility for meeting the costs of providing such benefits
therefore takes on added significance.
The determination of reimbursement policy with respect to stream
quality improvement benefits produced under the planned conditions just
described is much more complex than in the case of incidental benefits.
At issue is the question of the degree to which non-reimbursable Federal
expenditures, that is, contributions by the nation at large, are justified
for this purpose, in relation to expenditures which should be made by
non-Federal interests for waste treatment works or other pollution abate-
ment measures available to them in the first place. Specifically, the
question is that of determining the level of waste treatment which polluters
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should be expected or required to provide, before pollution abatement by
dilution at Federal expense may be considered justified.
Said in another way, the determination of the justifiable degree of
planned Federal participation in stream quality improvement endeavors,
through low flow augmentation, requires first a determination of the amounts,
kinds, iind degrees of concentration cf those substances which may properly
be allowed to be discharged into a river, and the degree of dilution of
these wastes required after treatment to maintain adequate water quality,
as determined by appropriate authority.
Determination of Degree of Treatment Required Before Dilution is Warranted
A rational approach to this problem"is provided if it is recognized
that tha waters of rivers and lakes are generally considered to lie within
the public domain, and that they may be withdrawn for use only with the
permission of the particular governmental agency, usually the State,
having jurisdiction in each case. This is true under both the riparian
rights, or reasonable use, doctrine and the prior appropriation doctrine.
Under the reasonable use doctrine, the public has broad general rights in
the waters of a stream, but the owners of property abutting the stream
have the right to the reasonable use of the waters. Except for such
beneficial consumptive uses as drinking, stock watering, lawn watering;
etc., however, each riparian owner must, after use, allow the stream to
flow undiminished in quantity or quality to the next user downstream,
unless he is legally authorized to do otherwise. The prior rights
doctrine provides for allocation of waters for beneficial consumptive uses
but does not permit the user to discharge indiscriminately polluted waters
back to the stream.
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The public has broad interests in most streams with respect to
sources of water supply, fish and wildlife resources, recreational values,
and esthetic and environmental influences. An additional point to bear in
mind is that, except for water consumed through evaporation and transpiration
in comsection with irrigation usage, and the very small amounts of water
actually consumed by people and animals, withdrawn waters are largely
returned to the river after use. Because of this latter fact, withdrawn
water g.hould preferably be looked upon as a service facility rather than
as a commodity, as has heretofore generally been the case.
As a service facility, withdrawn water is used mostly as a solvent,
cleans&r, transporter or coolant, to carry away sewage and other waste
products, dirt and grime, and heat, following which, because there is
nowhere else to dispose of it, most of it is returned to the public domain
in a Itike or river, usually with most of the substances it was required to
transport left in it. Viewed in this light, the service which the water
user receives is essentially that normally provided by a rental facility.
The rental price, in the case of water, of course, is the cost of the
facilities required to withdraw, use, treat and return it. Under these
circumstances, it is only proper that the rentor, at his own expense,
should remove the transported commodities from the vehicle and otherwise
make ib suitable for the next user, before returning it, or compensate the
owner (the public) for the cost of such removal. This is particularly true
where bhe transported materials are obnoxious. This principle is entirely
in keeping with the water rights doctrines under which the waters of the
U. S. are managed.
During the earlier period in the nation's history when population
was less dense, there was little recognized and accepted stream damage, and
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disposal of wastes into streams, in many instances, did not conflict
seriously with other users. Today, with increasing congestion, close
proximity of uses and users, and almost universal use of water for flushing
away wastes, the discharge of large quantities of wastes into streams
impairs their quality to the detriment of both downstream users and the
genera], public. Under these conditions, the use of a stream as a vehicle
for the disposal of sewage or other wastes is contrary to the public interest
and the doctrines of water use.
Unfortunately, under current practices and within the limits of
existing technical knowledge and the presently accepted limits of available
economic resources, water is the cheapest convenient, generally accepted,
means of transporting and handling sewage and some other offensive or
detrimental wastes. Thus, with some small scale exceptions, the discharge
of waste waters into public water bodies is at the present time the only
practicable method of disposing of them. Under these circumstances it is
obvious that water users, if they are to meet their obligations to each
other end to the general public, must minimize the adverse affects of
presently accepted waste disposal practices by treating their wastes,
before discharging them into streams, in such manner as to remove as much
of the detrimental substances which they contain as possible. The provision
of water at national expense for the dilution of wastes, as a means of
reducirg stream damage, in lieu of proper waste treatment, is, under this
premise, not only contrary to public policy, but constitutes a subsidy to
the polluter, and should, therefore, not be condoned or proposed. This
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general principle has been clearly enunciated in the testimony of Public
Health Service officials before Congressional committees.*
Acceptance of the foregoing premise requires that "proper treatment"
be defined. It is, of course, not possible3 at any presently acceptable
econanic cost, to remove all polluting substances from used water. However,
in the case of domestic sewage and of industrial wastes of a similar organic
nature, a combination of primary and secondary treatment can, at quite
reasonable cost, remove, on an average, at least 80$ of the oxygen demanding
organic wastes. Lagoons or ''polishing ponds'1 and other treatment processes
can, where necessary, further reduce the BOD remaining in secondary treatment
plant effluents at additional cost. It would appear, therefore, that a
minimum of secondary treatment or its equivalent is not an unreasonable
prerequisite for crediting non-reimbursable pollution abatement benefits
to Federal water storage projects. Similarly, with some other types of
industrial pollutants, process improvements, treatment, impoundment or other
* Statement of Assistant Surgeon General Mark Hollis before the Senate
. Committee on Public Works:
". . .in line with the Federal Water Pollution Control Act,
pollution abatement should be regarded a primary responsibility
of State and local interests. We, therefore, suggest that the
record be clear that low flow augmentation should not be used as
a substitute for sewage treatment works required by State
authority or contemplated in comprehensive pollution control
plans prepared under the Federal act. However, it is often
difficult even with the best known treatment practices to
preserve quality of water in streams suitable for normal re-use
purposes during periods of minimum flows. Augmentation of low
flows during such periods would be highly beneficial ..."
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processes can substantially reduce the amount of polluting material allowed
to enter a stream. Only after all practical treatment measures have been
applied, such as the above, should non-reimbursable pollution abatement
benefits from low flow augmentation be credited to Federal projects. On
this point, it should be noted that these levels of required treatment
conform to the conclusions reached at the National Water Pollution Con-
ference in Washington in December I960, that "the objective of pollution
abatement measures should be to keep national water bodies as clean as
possible rather than to attempt to use the full capacity of water for waste
assimilation'', as heretofore advocated.
3!n some situations and with some classes of pollutants, no methods
of treatment are at this time available at any reasonable cost. Examples
are the plant nutrients remaining in sewage after treatment, certain
persistent industrial chemicals, acid mine drainage, heat, and salts
dissolved from natural deposits. To be sure, a procedure can be instituted
for reducing or preventing some of these substances from entering a stream
in some Instances, but in many cases no economical corrective measures have
yet been devised. Furthermore, a considerable part of the nation is
dependent for its economic wellbeing upon industrial establishments that
produce wastes, such as these, which, at the present time, are difficult
or impossible to treat at economical costs. Under the latter circumstances,
sound judgment should be applied to avoid an unreasonable insistence on the
elimination of such wastes to the economic detriment of the community. In
most of the foregoing situations, the planned dilution of the wastes involved,
at general public expense, appears proper pending the development of
economical methods of preventing or treating them.
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In applying the above policy, it should, of course, be made certain
that in no case is the polluter thereby permitted to escape his responsibility
where treatment or control is feasible. Neither should any polluter be
allowed to postpone provision of treatment facilities, when treatment is
or becomes possible, because of the improvement in river water quality
resulting from such planned low flow augmentation.
It is frequently argued that even where treatment is economically and
technically feasible, dilution could be substituted for such treatment if
this ±E cheaper and if, at the same time, damage to the stream is in »ii
respects satisfactorily prevented. Under these circumstances, the cost of
providing the dilution water should, of course, be met by the polluter,
because he is thereby absolved from the necessity of constructing treatment
facilities which he should, or would, otherwise have had to construct.
Generally speaking, however, substitution of dilution for treatment is
considered contrary to public policy because of possible dangers to health
and damages to esthetic and other public values associated with the use
of a river for disposal of raw or partially treated wastes. Where permitted,
it should certainly be viewed as only an interim solution.
On this same question of permitting substitution of dilution for
treatment, it is useful to observe, however, that project planning should
be based on the concept of optimum utilization of dam sites and that, for
this purpose, all possible uses for the waters which could be stored in a
proposed reservoir site should be investigated. If, under these circum-
stances, economic studies should indicate a need for dilution water at a
future date, a pollution source could now use this dilution to permit a
lower degree of satisfactory treatment. Such substitution should be limited,
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however, to the period of time during which the water is not needed for
higher priority uses. Present use of stored -water for dilution should
not grant a right in perpetuity. Also, it would appear proper under these
conditions to require the polluter to pay an appropriate amount for the
dilution water as a substitute for the costs of the postponed treatment
plant. In the present discussion, we are dealing primarily with those
situations where a general pollution problem exists in spite of the
provision of required waste treatment, and where dilution water as an
additional pollution abatement measure for general public benefit, is
provided at Federal expense.
Proposed Policy Regarding Use of Low Flow Augmentation for Pollution
Abatement. On the basis of the foregoing discussion, it is proposed that
reimbursement for pollution abatement benefits resulting from lov flow
augmentation from Federal reservoirs be based on the following policy:
1. Incidental pollution abatement benefits resulting from the
operation of Federal projects for other purposes may be
credited on a non-reimbursable basis to those projects,ev.en
though construction of treatment facilities which would
otherwise be required is thereby postponed, but such
benefits should be computed for a limited time only, based
upon a projection of total future demands upon the stream
for water for all purposes.
2. Where pollution abatement by means of low flow augmentation
is proposed as a non-reimbursable planned purpose of a
Federal project, only those pollution abatement benefits
should be credited to the project which would be produced
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after the pollutors have first provided efficient secondary
treatment of their wastes, or if this is not possible because
of the type of wastes, then treatment to the degree
economically permitted by existing knowledge; provided
however, that where secondary treatment or its equivalent
will ultimately be provided but will require time to introduce,
a specific phasing in period of time may be allowed during
which credit for non-reimbursable benefits below secondary
treatment levels may be claimed for the project.
'I* elf*
3- In those situations where the dfgree__of " '-
other—poiiution^^-^g^Siieved by treatment, or the mini mum
oxygen level or concentration of pollutants to be permitted
in the stream, as established by the State, is below the level
which efficient secondary or equivalent treatment can provide,
only those non-reimbursable benefits should be claimed for
dilution water from Federal reservoirs which would be produced
following efficient secondary treatment or its equivalent.
In those situations where different criteria for permissible
pollution are set by different States on the same interstate
$
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the non-reimbursable benefits claimed be based on less
than efficient secondary treatment or its equivalent.
Section II
Procedures for Evaluating Water Supply and Pollution Abatement Benefits.
Difficulties in measuring benefits. The measurement of water supply
and pollution abatement benefits derived from water stored in Federal
reservoirs is rendered difficult by the varied nature of these benefits and
by the absence of adequate economic tools for the purposes.
Municipal and industrial water supplies serve a wide variety of
domestic and public purposes, including transportation of domestic and
industrial wastes. The water provided enters into, but is only one of
many ingredients in a great number of industrial and other processes. It
promotes or preserves health, provides recreational, esthetic and other
satj.sfactions of quite an extensive, but often quite an intangible nature,
and otherwise plays a basic role in our whole life process.
It is generally agreed that the price paid for a water supply does
not necessarily represent the value of the benefits derived from its use.
Yet the true value of these benefits is difficult, if not impossible, to
determine, because social as well as economic values are involved*, and no
generally acceptable method of measuring them has yet been devised. Thus,
arbitrary and admittedly inadequate methods must be relied upon for their
determination. This condition is typical of all situations where the
benefits involved are of a more or less intangible nature.
* See addendum No. 1 on "An Approach to the Problem of Determining the
. Value of Water"
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!Phe abatement of pollution in a river by the release of stored water
during Low flow periods prevents damage to the river by improving its
quality as well as increasing its flow, thereby permitting it to perform
more satisfactorily a number of functions which it could not otherwise do.
Thus, tine physical and esthetic appearance of the stream and its environment
can be preserved or improved, fish ar.l aquatic life supported, recreation
enhanced, tastes and odors reduced, and dangers to health and damages to
physical property greatly diminished. Excess costs of treating polluted
waters for water supply purposes may also be prevented. Heat pollution
may be dissipated by the lowering of river temperatures. In some cases,
the benefits may, of course, be negative in character, that is, they may
be detrimental to the river as in the case of oxygen deficient water
release! from the bottom levels of a reservoir.
Incidental benefits of a similar nature may also result from releases
of water for other purposes such as municipal or industrial water supply
(where bhe stream is used as the transporting vehicle), navigation, flood
control, or power generation.
Some of these various benefits from low flow augmentation can be
evaluated directly. For example, it is possible to determine the reduction
in costs of treating withdrawn waters before use, as well as any reduction
in the =ost of treating wastes discharged to the river, made possible by
the dilation. Potential pollution damages to river structures, boat hulls,
engines, etc., can be computed. It may even be possible to evaluate the
adverse effects of polluted waters upon the market value of abutting
properties. But many of the damaging effects of pollution which are
reduced or eliminated by dilution are difficult, if not impossible, to
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evaluate in monetary terms by existing methods. This is particularly true
of damages to fishing, recreational pursuits, esthetic values, and environ-
mental influences in general, where benefits can be described in terms of
numbers of persons served or other similar quantities, but cannot be reduced
to dollars.
For those situations where dilution results in the elimination of
the usue.l treatment facilities which would otherwise be required, the upper
limit of the value of the benefits produced by the dilution would normally
be the costs of the treatment plant eliminated. In those situations where
dilution would still have been required, even if the treatment plant had
been buj.lt, benefits in addition to those represented by the cost of the
treatment plant eliminated must also be evaluated. These ''excess1' benefits
would be computed in the same manner as those discussed below, where all
possible: treatment has been provided, but where dilution is still required
to abates the pollution in the stream.
l^resently accepted method of assigning values to water supply and
pollution abatement benefits. As indicated above, no satisfactory method
has yet been devised for evaluating some of the described water supply and
pollution abatement benefits provided by stored water, although many people
feel that they far exceed the cost of acquiring the necessary water. In
the absence of an acceptable technique for measuring them, these benefits
have, for convenience, arbitrarily been equated equal to the cost of the
cheapest feasible alternative means of achieving the same benefits, in the
absence of the proposed project. Where a feasible alternative is cheaper
than the project under study, it would, of course, normally be expected to
be adopted in lieu of the project, or would in any case be considered the
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upper limit of the cost which the beneficiaries would be justified in paying
for the project in question, as well as the arbitrary measure of the benefits
to be derived from it. Thus, even if it were not necessary to assign a value
to the benefits from a proposed Federal water storage project, it would still
be necessary to explore all possible alternatives in order to determine
whether the project is economically justified, and the arbitrary adoption,
for mere convenience of handling, of some one alternative, to the exclusion
of all others, is improper, unless it can be shown to be in fact the most
economical practicable alternative available.
llhis arbitrary procedure for evaluating water supply and pollution
abatement benefits is admittedly unsatisfactory and provides values which
leave the investigator with the frustrating feeling that they may be very
wide of the mark. In fact, it really does not solve the problem at all
since it begs the question by flatly assuming that the benefits warrant
the proposed expenditure in the first place. This position is justified,
of course, in those reimbursable situations where the beneficiaries are
required to pay the costs or are willing to contract for their payment,
but offers no solution to the problem where the costs are non-reimbursable.
Until such time as economists can provide a more workable technique, however,
we are piretty much stuck with this concept as the basis for the evaluation
of these benefits.
Alternatives to be studied in evaluating a water storage project.
In the pi-evious paragraphs, it was pointed out that both the limit on
justifiable expenditure for, and the value of the benefits from a water
storage project were,, in the absence of any better procedure, taken to be
equal to the cost of the cheapest feasible alternative method of achieving
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the sane benefits in the absence of the project. Application of this concept
makes it necessary to determine the alternative to be selected in each case,
as the basis for measurement. The only limitation on the consideration of
alternatives is that they must be true alternatives, which could in fact be
built, and not hypothetical concepts conceived merely for purposes of
computation.
With respect to a municipal and industrial water supply project, the
most obvious alternative is another water supply source. This may be a
single purpose reservoir, either on some other stream, or at the site of the
proposed project in its absence. It may also be ground water. However, in
some instances, other alternatives are available, such as re-cycling or other
conservation of the existing supply to extend its utility, or in the case of
water for cooling, resort to cooling ponds to air cooling. All such
alternatives should be explored and evaluated. In approaching this problem,
cognizance should also be taken of the need for additional storage to provide
additional water to dilute the wastes produced when a water supply is used.
Several types of alternatives are also available for measuring
benefits from low flow augmentation. As explained above, in those situations
where dilution makes it possible to avoid construction of a primary or
secondary treatment plant, the cost of such a plant is the most obvious
alternative. Above the secondary treatment plant level, other alternatives
include (l) a single purpose storage reservoir, either on the site of the
proposed multiple purpose project in its absence, or elsewhere, whichever
is cheajest; (2) tertiary treatment facilities, such as a super-treatment
plant or a lagoon, which would achieve a reduction in the pollution load
on the stream equal to that which would be accomplished by the proposed
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dilution; (3) other methods of dealing with the wastes in the first place
in such manner as to prevent them from reaching the stream, or (U) other
methods of providing the benefits which are produced by low flow augmentation.
With respect to a possible super-treatment plant as an alternative!
benefits must, of course, be computed on the basis of the entire cost of
the plant, not on its rental value during the limited periods when treatment
in excess of standard secondary treatment would be required, since there
would be no other use for such a theoretical plant, and it would, of
necessity, stand idle during those periods when dilution was not required.*
The costs of such a plant would therefore include total capital outlays,.
interest and maintenance costs, plus those operating costs incurred during
actual periods of operation.
Closely akin to the super-treatment plant alternative is that of a
tertiary stabilization lagoon or "polishing1 pond. This method may perhaps
be much cheaper than the super-treatment plant, but there are serious
drawbacks to be considered. These ponds require considerable space. Since
most cities are located in or near a river bottom, there might not be room
either for such a pond, or for the hydraulic head required for proper
function.lng without expensive pumping. In some locations the large areas
of land :required would also be costly. Furthermore, the delay caused by
these lagoons in returning flows to the stream at times when needed downstream
might also be considered as a damage since this waste water has value under
these conditions.
* See addendum No. 2 for additional discussion.
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A variant on the treatment lagoon concept is a simple storage lagoon,
which would merely impound the treated waste water effluents until such time
as the flood flows of the river are great enough to dilute these wastes
without clamage to the stream. Such storage lagoons would require less storage
volume than the water required to dilute them, and could also be much deeper
and of much less surface area thai treatment lagoons, thus reducing evaporation.
However, suitable sites would probably be difficult to find in river bottom
areas. !In addition to the drawbacks of space needs and hydraulic head
mentioned above, this scheme also has the disadvantage of deliberately
withhold:Lng water (eventhough polluted) from the stream at a time when its
low dry weather flow might require that the additional water be made available.
In those situations where the purpose of dilution is to make possible
the withdrawal of water further downstream for water supply purposes, the
cost of zin alternative source of water for these downstream supplies could
serve as the basis for measuring the benefits from low flow augmentation,
and shouILd be explored. In fact, if the alternative source of water supply
is cheaper, it should be adopted, since dilution would then be uneconomical
in the f:irst place.
For those situations where a natural pollutant such as a chloride
or sulphate may be too concentrated to permit use of the water for municipal
and industrial purposes, but may not be detrimental to fish or recreation,
dilution would appear to be uneconomical unless a demand either existed or
was anticipated within the period of analysis, for such a water supply from
the rive::. Also, it might be possible to divert such natural pollutants
from the area of use, as an alternative.
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With respect to recreational and similar benefits from a stream, which
would be produced through dilution, the cost of providing similar benefits
by alternate means should be explored. In many such situations there
probably would be no apparent alternative facility, but, a search in this
direction for value measurements would seem to hold out possibilities as
compared with the task of tackling recreational values directly.
In most cases above the secondary treatment level, perhaps the most
practicable alternative for measuring the value of benefits from the project
will be the alternative single-purpose storage reservoir which would be able
to provide the same water supply water as that provided by the project under
study. All possible sites for such a reservoir should be investigated,
including a reservoir on the project site in the absence of the project.
In computing the size and cost of the various alternatives, it will,
of course, be necessary to undertake a careful operational study of the
streaa in question, based on hydrologic records, to determine the frequency,
duration, and actual volumes of flows of the river during its low flow stages.
These data, coupled with the patterns of timing and concentration of waste
water discharged to be expected, and the relative costs of correcting the
situation under various assumptions regarding permissible stream damage,
are used to indicate the volumes and durations of dilution water releases
to be provided. Such a study will provide the basis for determining the
total annual amount of dilution water to be released, and therefore the
storage space to be provided, or, in the case of super-treatment, the
maxinum treatment plant capacity to be provided. If a storage lagoon is
envisioned, the frequency, magnitude, and duration of the flood flows during
which the lagoon would be discharged, must also be determined by a hydrologic
study in order to determine the maximum waste storage volume required.
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In making a comparison between the cost of the Federal project and
that of an alternative, the procedure is usually complicated by the fact
that most alternatives would usually be financed by non-Federal agencies
over a shorter period of time, and at a different interest rate than the
Federal project. Because of this fact, it is necessary to convert both
cost:; to a common base for comparison. This is perhaps most easily done
by reducing all costs to present worth. Thus, the total of both interest
cost:; and of operation, maintenance and replacement costs for both the
Federal project and the alternative would be reduced to present worth and
added to the initial investment costs, to get a total figure in each case
for comparison. It is also possible to make the comparison on an average
annual cost basis by converting all figures to a common time period.
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Addendum No. 1
The Problem of the Value of Water
A basic problem in determining the value of water stems from the
concept that water is endowed with some fundanentol intrinsic value which
is inherent in its nature. This assumption is obviously fallacious.
Water has many values, depending on location, condition and volume of
supply and intended use. In any given location, water, regardless of the
benefits and satisfactions it conveys to the user, is worth what it costs
to get it, up to the point where cost exceeds the price purchasers (used
here in the broadest social as well as commercial sense) are willing to
pay. In the latter situation, price voluntarily paid represents the limit
of ibs value, this limit often being dictated by nothing more than sheer
judgment on the part of the purchaser.
The cost of acquiring a water supply for a particular use includes
both direct costs and indirect or associated costs. These indirect costs
include such things as benefits from other possible uses for the same water,
which must be forgone or renounced, or detrimental affects on other
following uses and users of the same water, for which compensatory measures
must be provided. It is often difficult to measure these indirect costs.
In many instances they represent social costs which are not reflected in
the costs assigned to the water project. Some of these affects and inter-
relationships are discussed in following paragraphs.
A further difficulty in determining water value arises from a tendency
to confuse costs with reimbursements, or with accounting items used in tax
and rate making procedures. Costs represent expenditures (or benefits
forgone), which must be made in order to acquire water. Reimbursements
involve the question of who pays these costs--not necessarily the same
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people as the users. Accounting quantities used for tax or rate making
purposes sometimes involve concepts other than or in addition to actual
costs. These distinctions must be kept clearly in mind, since the
determination of "who pays what" involves social and political as well
as economic considerations.
Water serves many purposes—some of which are absolute in the
senE'6 that there are no alternatives to such uses. The most important
of ttoese is, of course, for domestic water supply—household use. In
the most limited and narrow sense this means direct human and animal
consumption of water. Other household uses such as for cooking and personal
and household cleansing are second, followed by transportation of wastes,
watering of gardens and lawns, washing of cars, etc., in some descending
order of importance. For the first of these uses, water is worth what-
ever it costs to acquire, since life itself is at stake. Under these
circumstances, the limit on value is equal to the total resources available
to the people for the acquisition of water, since the only other choices
are to move on to some more favorable location or to perish.
For all other uses, there usually are choices and alternatives which
help to establish value, although these choices are not necessarily easy
to make. Most domestic uses have to do with the quality of human living
and environment, and benefits relate mainly to matters of human health or
welfare. Cleanliness, sanitation, fire protection, and maintenance of
gardens, lawns and parks all contribute not only to physical health and
well-being, but to mental health, and to esthetic, social and cultural
betterment, both on an individual and a community-wide basis. Such benefits
are .lot as susceptible of monetary measurements as are benefits from uses
of water for other more material(or commercial) purposes. Thus, where
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wa-;er is relatively plentiful, the value of water to be used for health
and welfare purposes is largely a matter of the judgment or choice of the
purchasers* with respect to the expenditures required to acquire the water,
when compared with other types of benefits which might be secured from
expenditure of the same funds for other purposes. In areas of inadequate
economic resources or of low income, this choice, even where water is
plentiful, will, however, be dictated largely by the demands upon scarce
funds for more fundamental needs such as food, clothing and basic shelter.
On a community-wide basis, the choice is frequently affected by
the attitude of citizens toward taxes or other public charges. Communities
are; often quoted as being unable to afford an addition to their water
supply system, or a sewage treatment plant to clean up water after use.
Whe.t these communities are really saying is that their citizens prefer to
spe>nd the additional sums involved for more chewing gum, gasoline, movies,
or televisions, rather than for the extra taxes or service charges required
to pay the costs of water for green lawns, clean streets, fire protection
or more fishing in the river. This attitude arises largely because these
water facilities or services are frequently not paid for directly by the
citizen, and the relationship between the benefits and the payments is
therefore tenuous, or the values to be derived from the extra water or
the cleaner river are not directly comparable to chewing gum or a TV.
* The term "purchaser" is used in the broadest sense and is not intended
to be synonymous with the ultimate consumer. For public health, welfare
and other public policy reasons, the purchaser can be and often is a
public body which does not necessarily receive adequate compensation from
the ultimate consuoer, but elects to subsidize his use of water as a
general public welfare policy. Here, again, the confusion which arises
between costs and reimbursements must be kept clearly in mind.
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The- value of the water is nevertheless still based on a choice, dictated
by the cultural pattern or the standard of living of the people of the
community.
In arid areas, such choices tend to diminish or disappear, and the
philosophy behind water use changes character, since a limited water
supply would naturally be applied first to agriculture or other material
productive effort, rather than to, say, watering lawns, a deferrable use
in the face of more basic economic need.
With respect to most public uses of water, such as for recreational
facilities, sport fish propagation, or the transportation of wastes, no
precise monetary evaluation of benefits can usually be developed for
comparison with costs or with benefits from other types of usages which
can be so evaluated. A non-monetary, but nevertheless definite quantitative
evaluation can often be made, however, Numbers of people served per year,
or numbers or pounds of fish raised or caught per year provide a guide.
The choice is still largely one of judgment in the final analysis, however,
bec&.use specific monetary benefits from possible alternative industrial
or consumptive uses must be compared, from a broad public point of view,
witlr the non-monetary general benefits from these public uses. (Even so,
some of these latter uses can be shown to induce substantial secondary
activities, which are measurable in money, such as stimulation of local
employment, manufacture and sale of equipment, sale of food, gasoline,
and other services, which might provide a basis for comparison with similar
specific local benefits from commercial uses.)
Still another category of uses, which lie in a half world of suscep-
tibility to comparative evaluation, is concerned with such uses as industrial
or power plant cooling or generation of hydroelectric power, where the
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basic costs of development for such uses are comparatively low per unit
of water involved. In these instances, the water is usually passed on to
others for such other uses as municipal or industrial water supply,
recreation, fish propagation or sewage effluent dilution, but is modified
either in temperature, or time of availability, to such a degree as to
materially reduce its suitability for these other uses. These detrimental
effects, which are often not susceptible to monetary evaluation, must
nevertheless be taken into account along with the direct monetary costs
of developing the water supply for these commercial uses. Where the
succeeding downstream uses are sufficiently important, public authorities
may be faced with the necessity of determining whether the initial
commercial uses shall be denied or additional costs imposed upon the
commercial users for plant modification in order to reduce the detriments
to "hese other downstream users. (Use of cooling towers, recycling and
re-regulating reservoirs are examples of such plant modification.) With
the imposition of these additional costs, the cost of the water may exceed
the value to the prospective commercial users, who may then abandon their
proposals to utilize it for cooling or pover generation, or may adopt
alternative methods of achieving their ends.
It is only when one gets avay from the intangible field of domestic
and community or other public uses involving problems of health and general
public welfare, that it becomes possible to apply what may be called market
values to water. There are choices, of course, but under these circum-
stances it can be assumed that the choice would normally be based on the
greE.test economic return. For example, it is entirely possible, in
many instances, to determine on a comparative economic basis the production
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ancl employment returns from, say, irrigation versus navigation or
industrial water use. Development of a water supply for an irrigation
project of low yield might prove uneconomical, but might be justified
for: a recreational or an industrial development which provides sufficiently
hiijh returns to warrant the expenditure.
Within the area of industrial use, evaluation of a water supply
in relation to cost would again depend on the alternative returns from
various types of industries, some industries being unable to meet high
costs, others being entirely able and willing to do so. Even in this
situation, choice varies with location, since an industry may be unwilling
or unable to meet high costs in one location, as in Eastern steel mills,
but may, because of a more favorable location with respect to markets,
be prepared to pay higher costs either directly for the water, or for
measures to conserve it—as in the case of the Fontana steel mill in
Csilifornia. Even this situation is not static. Eastern steel mills are
unwilling to pay high costs for water only because of the existing
plentiful supply. At some future time, other demands for water in these
a:reas may make it so valuable that these mills would elect to install
conservation measures rather than pay higher charges for the water.
As the competition for water increases with increasing population
aad the multiplication of uses, the cost of acquiring or providing water
of suitable quality will gradually increase for various reasons.
Correspondingly, the value of water will also increase, both because of
increased costs and because of competition for scarce supplies. Thus,
there may arrive a time when, for example, the cost to the public far the
vse of rivers as residual waste carriers (even after so-called "complete"
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treatment) in terms of detriments to other uses and users, such as
water supply, recreation or fish culture, may "be so great as to warrant
a search for other methods of waste handling, or for more elaborate
(even though more expensive) waste treatment facilities such as desalina-
tion of secondary treatment plant effluent.
The foregoing discussion and examples attempt to point out that
each water use and development situation must "be evaluated on its own
particular merits and to demonstrate that no basic general value can
be assigned to water per se, either with respect to place or time of
occurrence or use. This does not mean that efforts should not be made
to determine the value of water for any given use or circumstances.
Such determinations are badly needed. But, even in specific situations,
the determination of the economic and social value of water is difficult,
and much work is required to develop suitable techniques and procedures for
making such evaluations.
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Addendum No. II
Computation of Alternative Treatment Plant Costs
as a Basis for Evaluating
Pollution Abatement Benefits from Low Flow Augmentation
Suggestions have been made that the waste treatment cost figures
developed for the use of the Senate Select Committee, as shown in Committee
Prints 9 and 29, be used as the basis for computing the costs of treatment
as an alternative to dilution. These figures are inadequate for this purpose.
They were developed to indicate the total cost of providing normal standard
treatment on a continuous basis in a river basin. Beyond this, Committee
Print 29 had as its objective the determination of the volume of stream flow
required to assimilate such treated wastes, on a basin wide basis, but did
not attempt to evaluate the benefits which would, result from such dilution.
The Committee's problem and the one we are dealing with in attempting to
plac« a benefit value on water provided for low flow augmentation are two
separate stages in the over-all problem of the management of water quality
in a river.
The cost of treatment which would be required to achieve the same
results as dilution after secondary treatment are far higher than the costs
of standard secondary treatment, and are further complicated by the fact that
such super treatment would only be required at spasmodic intervals when
normal river flow falls below the point where the stream could assimilate
the breated effluents. Thus, the super-treatment plant must be visualized
as a standby plant constructed solely for this purpose, and standing idle
duriag those times when the river flows were high enough to render use of
the plant unnecessary. Under these circumstances, the cost of removing a
unit of BOD by the super-treatment plant must be computed by charging out
the entire capital cost of the standby plant against this spasmodic service
and would thus be far higher than that derived from the figures contained in
the Committee print.
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NOTES
r
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NOTES
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NOTES
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SHOULD THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE TAKE A STAND
AND MAKE SECONDARY TREATMENT MANDATORY?
William H. Davis
Water Resources Section
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Public Health Service, Region VII
U. S. Department of Health, Education, & Welfare
Let's take a stroll down the streets of Edinburgh in jolly
old England about a century ago. The cobblestone streets, the quaint
dress of the passers-by, the building architecture, and the store
fronts with manuscript signs soon give us the "plum-pudding" atmos-
phere of a Dickens' novel. Suddenly, the folks around us look
panicky and head for cover, for the words "GARDY-LOOl" have been
iiounded by a housemaid's voice above us. Just as the word "FORE"
means take cover on the golf course, the words "gardy-loo" were the
maid's warning that she was throwing the contents of the night soil
pot out of the window. Having hesitated too long to take cover, we
«.re quite happy to return to the present day, where the words "gardy-
loo" no longer rend the air with shattering impact.
Modern sewerage systems have made the words "gardy-loo"
obsolete; by connecting each household, hotel, hospital, and indus-
try with a sewer, the noxious, bacteria-laden, and potentially
poisonous wastes of a community are no longer a sidewalk hazard.
Instead, they flow swiftly and silently to the nearest watercourse —
where, without even the courtesy of the warning words "gardy-loo"
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they are often thrown into the water plant intake of a downstream
community. More than warning words are needed, however; the sewage
must be treated and purified — but by whom? — the city where the
wastes originated? — the receiving stream? — or by the downstream
water plant operator? Only the factor of economics prevents unanimous
agreement that purification should take place at the point of origin.
The word "only" was used not in the sense of minimizing the
importance of economics but to signify that it is the one reason
that prevents 100 per cent purification of waste water by all water
users. There is a price tag on every gallon of waste water, from
the time it is flushed from the user's premises until it is used
again, or reaches the sea. Sewers and interceptors are not free;
treatment costs increase with each per cent removal of waste-water
ingredient; degradation of the stream costs a segment of society
their health, recreation, and welfare; and it costs the downstream
user not only the price of an elaborate water treatment plant with
alert operators and high dosages of chlorine but a sword of Damocles
that hangs constantly over their heads in the form of a threat of
virus, untreatable toxic materials, and the potential malfunction of
the human or mechanical operation of their water-treatment plant.
Until 1948, the Public Health Service had done little more
than sound the "gardy-loo" warning for the stream polluters. It had
recognized and sanctioned dilution as a money-saving substitute for
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waste treatment as long as there was sufficient water in the stream
to "assimilate" the wastes. Except for PWA-WPA projects, Federal
financial assistance was offered for neither waste nor water treat-
ment; individual treatment plants were the responsibility of the water
users and their respective state health departments. It is interest-
ing to note that today the Public Health Service has taken a stand
and is granting financial assistance for the construction of sewage
treatment plants but not for dilution water nor water treatment plants.
Let's go back to the year 1948 and see how this came about.
In that year, the Senate Committee on Public Works (Report
No. 462, 80th Congress) summarized the national problem:
"Water pollution has become a matter of grave concern
in many areas, and its damaging effects on the public
health and natural resources are a matter of definite
Federal concern as a menace to national welfare. Abate-
ment must be undertaken to control it."
The committee report then stated the Federal responsibility
in solving the problem: "The Federal Government should take the
initiative in developing comprehensive plans for the solution of
water pollution problems in cooperation with the states."
As a result of the committee's findings, the Taft-Barkley
bill, Public Law 845, was passed by the 80th Congress. This bill
was the Nation's first Water Pollution Control Act and put the
Public Health Service in the business of water pollution control by
specifying the responsibilities of the Surgeon General:
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"The Surgeon General shall, after careful investiga-
tion, and in cooperation with other Federal agencies,
with State water pollution agencies and interstate
agencies, and with municipalities and industries in-
volved, prepare or adopt comprehensive programs for
eliminating or reducing the pollution of interstate
waters and tributaries thereof and improving the sani-
tary condition of surface and underground waters.
In the development of such comprehensive programs
due regard shall be given to the improvements which
are necessary to conserve such waters for public
water supplies, propagation of fish and aquatic life,
recreational purposes, and agricultural, industrial,
and other legitimate uses . ..."
The bill also instructed the Surgeon General to encourage interstate
compacts for the prevention and abatement of pollution, to support
and aid technical research to devise and perfect methods of treat-
ment, and to provide technical services to state and interstate
agencies and to municipalities in the formulation and execution of
their stream pollution abatement programs. Financial aid by loans
to local agencies for the construction of pollution abatement works
was authorized, but none was appropriated under the original Act.
Enforcement of water pollution control measures was authorized, but •
only after state efforts had failed and with consent of the upstream
state from which the pollution was originating. The Senate Committee
on Public Works made a prophetic statement with regard to this bill:
"... failure to accomplish adequate progress in pollution
abatement under the terms of this bill, through coopera-
tive efforts of the Federal and State agencies, will un-
doubtedly call for much stronger and more direct Federal
enforcement measures at some subsequent session of the
Congress."
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The horrendous job of organizing, implementing, and carrying this
new comprehensive program into the states was shouldered by Carl
E. Schwob, Chief of the then embryo Division of Water Pollution
Control. Under his masterful and dynamic leadership, the entire
United States was divided into ten major drainage areas, with a
field office staffed by four to seven engineers and scientists in
each basin.
Before summarizing some of the accomplishments that were
realized during the first three years of the Division's existence,
it should be noted that no attempt was made to take a stand on any
specific degree of waste treatment, but instead, every effort was
expended toward achieving a feeling of cooperation between the states,
industries, conservation groups, and other Federal agencies. This
period was an all-out attempt to sell the Golden Rule to the Nation's
water users.
The following are excerpts from Mr. Schwob's statement to
the Committee on Public Works of the House of Representatives, 82nd
Congress, on May 20, 1952:
"... I like to think of our multiple functions in
three broad categories .... First, comprehensive
program planning and development activities; second,
execution of the comprehensive program; and third,
technical services and research which support all
other activities.
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"Under the first category, ... we have issued reports
covering the 226 basins in the United States, of which
146 are interstate .... These statements represent
joint statements of the Public Health Service and the
States involved ... (and are) ... comprehensive blue-
prints of pollution abatement needs. We have developed
... a model State Water Pollution Control Act which
was recommended by the council of State Governments
for favorable consideration. ... we are participating
in the Arkansas-White-Red and the New England-New
York Inter-Agency Committees.
"Under the second category, execution of the compre-
hensive program ... we have ... worked directly with
State agencies to bring about solutions to interstate
pollution problems ... encouraged the formation of
regional pollution-control councils ... (at least one
of which has) .. . adopted (for its area) uniform water
quality objectives and treatment works design standards
... stimulated pollution control activities within the
States by making federal funds available for studies,
surveys and research.
"Under the third category, "Technical Services and
Research," we have ... set up a National Technical
Task Committee to work directly with industry ...
and placed under construction the Environmental
Health Center at Cincinnati which is about 60 per
cent completed ...."
This program, which was successfully revealing and defining
the Nation's water pollution problems was nearly scuttled within a
year after the above report, by a temporary but devastating slash
in Federal funds -- Mr. Schwob's health failed, the basin offices
were disbanded, and many of the highly skilled personnel trans-
ferred to other areas of activity. Could it be that the Public
Health Service was approaching a point where it would have to
take a stand in enforcing pollution abatement measures that would
be costly for members of certain pressure groups? Perhaps we should
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have heeded the words of Plutarch (Lives—Crassus, p. 651) "Economy,
which in things inanimate is but money making, when exercised over
men becomes policy." Is the public ready for us to take a stand
at this time? The cost of secondary treatment is even higher today
than it was eight years ago; but then the public is more aware of
the need for more clean water today -- or is it?
Having made my point regarding the chaos that occurred during
the spring of 1953, I must now qualify it by stating that Congress
did extend the original act just prior to its expiration date in
1953 but after the basin office organization had been dismantled.
Mr. A. F. Welters succeeded Mr. Schwob during the reorganization
period, and the program has surged forward since 1955 under the
forthright leadership of Mr. Gordon McCallum. A second Federal
Water Pollution Act, Public Law 660, was enacted by the 84th Congress
in June, 1956. Since this Act is the foundation of our present
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control, we might well re-
view its provisions to see if it will permit us to take a stand on
secondary treatment.
The second Act is very similar to the first, with two signi-
ficant changes: (1) authorization of Federal financial assistance
in the form of grants (instead of loans) to municipalities for the
planning and construction of needed sewage-treatment plants; and
(2) a more workable provision for Federal enforcement where needed
to clean up interstate pollution.
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Our present program encompasses seven general areas pertinent
to pollution:
1. Basic Data
This program includes: (a) a national network of
seventy-five stations on interstate streams to mea-
sure water quality; (b) inventories of water, sew-
age, and industrial waste facilities in the United
States; (c) compilation of data on contract awards
for water facilities, sewerage, and sewage treat-
ment facilities to show what progress is being
made in meeting the nation's needs, and; (d)
economic studies to find ways of determining what
pollution is costing the American people and the
costs of controlling it.
2. Program Grants
The Act authorized $3 million a year in annual
Federal grants to support state and interstate
pollution control programs; these agencies have
used the grants, supplemented by two or three
times the amount of the grant with local funds,
for employing technical personnel, for purchas-
ing special laboratory and field study equip-
ment, for research, and for other purposes in
administering state laws.
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3. Construction Grants
This program has been very successful in stimu-
lating the construction of sewage treatment fa-
cilities, with authorization of $50 million
annually. These have been made primarily to
cities of 125,000 population or less, and local
funds have been applied in a rate of about 6:1.
4. Research
Aimed principally at pollution abatement, our
research is carried on mainly at the Robert A.
Taft Sanitary Engineering Center. Some of the
projects under way include finding a cheaper
and more efficient sewage treatment process
and methods for freeing water supplies from
viruses, detergents, insecticides, radioactive
substances, and other substances which can
make a water supply unsafe. The Act also
provides for research grants to public and
private research agencies, as well as qualified
individuals.
5. Interstate Enforcement
Where pollution of interstate waters endangers the
health or welfare of persons in a state other than
the one in which the pollution originates, the
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Public Health Service is empowered to take action
to abate such pollution. Such action includes
first, a conference with the state and interstate
agencies involved] second, a public hearing before
a board appointed by the Secretary; and finally,
Federal court action.
6. Training
The Sanitary Engineering Center gives short,
intensive laboratory and classroom courses and
holds seminars and conferences on new subjects
of interest for the benefit of engineers, chem-
ists, and other scientists from Federal and
state agencies, municipalities, industries,
and foreign countries.
7. Technical Assistance
States which have requested technical assistance
from the Division have received services such
as full scale river surveys, evaluation of state
laboratory operations, evaluation of flew waste
treatment processes, and special investigations
into water-borne disease epidemics, and fish
kills. Close liason with the major industries
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of 6-he NdfcilM is ttisiiitaifled by the HatiOtial
Technical Task Committee on Industrial Wastes. jLv^lflW**
It has two basic purposes: to serve as dti
advisory capacity to the Public Health Service,
and second, to serve as a forum whereby the
industrial representatives may exchange infor-
mation on their common waste disposal problems
and make regular reports to their sponsoring
groups.
We have traced the course of the Public Health Service's
water pollution control program from its birth, through its tur-
i
bulent growing pains and finally its present mature, multiple-
phase development. Our main purpose has been to reveal the
complexity of the Nation's water pollution problem and the folly
of any attempt to have taken a hard stand on universal secondary
treatment up to the present time. Would it be wise Co take such
a stand nowf Would it ever be?
Perhaps population density might be a criterion £dr determin-
ing when we should insist on universal effluent standards. Klein*
compares England's use of effluent standards with the United States1
*Klein, Louis, Aspects of River Pollution, p. 541, (1957).
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program: "In the U.S.A., stream standards rather than effluent
standards are preferred for legal purposes and this is understandable
in a country where, in general, rivers are large and pollutions occur
at wide intervals." A comparison of the average population density
of the two countries bears him out, since that of England is 81
persons per square mile and the United States is somewhat less,
50.4. However, upon taking a closer look, we find that eighteen of
our states have a greater population density than England. New
Jersey and Rhode Island, the most densely populated, have an average
of about 800 persons per square mile. At least four of the eighteen
states now have some form of effluent standards. Incidentally,
England has not strictly adhered to effluent standards, for Section
5 of the 1951 Rivers Act left open whether effluent standards, stream
standards, or both should be prescribed.
Regardless of where we might draw the line for a minimum
degree of treatment, we must expect sharp criticism for being un-
reasonable. For example, in implementing the Construction Grant
program, the Public Health Service established rules and regulations
Chat require treatment to remove, substantially, 100 per cent of
settleable solids (primary treatment) as a minimum to be elegible
ior a grant-in-aid. Thomas R. Camp* has cited several instances
*Camp, Thomas R., ASCE Sanitary Engineering Div. Journal, Vol. 87,
SA1, January, 1961.
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where the receiving stream had sufficient flow to assimilate the
wastes, and he used these examples to substantiate his following
statement:
"These (minimum requirements) tend to have the force
of law compelling primary settling whether it is needed
or appropriate to accomplish the required result in
the receiving waters, and to divert attention from the
much more important reason for sewage treatment, which
is the destruction of pathogenic bacteria and viruses."
He has made a strong plea for chlorination only, where the dilution
ratio is sufficient to handle the organic load in sewage: " ...
post-chlorination of well settled sewage produces no better bacterial
results in the receiving waters than does chlorination of comminuted
raw sewage." We do not choose to argue the point, especially since
we agree so heartily with his statement regarding the importance of
destroying pathogenic bacteria and viruses; however, the following
points are here listed as a token rebuttal to his criticism of our
stand in the Construction Grants program: (1) The Public Health
Service, by virtue of its role in carrying out Public Law 660,
must give due regard to not only waters for public water supplies,
but also the propagation of fish and aquatic life, recreational
purposes, and agricultural, industrial, and other legitimate uses.
(2) His comparison of the efficacy of chlorine on raw sewage and
primary effluent involved the use of a laboratory blendor to simulate
a comminutor in breaking up the bacteria-laden clumps in raw sewage
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for more effective contact with the chlorine; a comminutor is not
intended to, nor does it approach, the homogenizing action of a
laboratory blendor. In actual practice, the center of these clumps
might be expected to pass into the receiving stream without being
contacted by the chlorine. (3) Laboratory beakers should not be
considered as an adequate device for simulating the receiving stream;
after-growth of chlorinated sewage bacteria may be expected to occur
according to the turbulance, nutrient, and other characteristics of
the particular receiving stream. (4) Malfunction or interruption of
the chlorination would result in the raw sewage being discharged
directly to the stream.
In the light of our experience in administering the Water
Pollution Control Act in this country since 1948, the experience of
England in applying effluent standards, and the sincere objections
of qualified men like Mr. Camp, it appears inadvisable for the Public
Health Service to take a stand and make secondary treatment mandatory,
Instead, we should continue to encourage the states to classify their
streams and thus reveal the degree of waste treatment needed to main-
tain the desired quality; to stimulate more intrastate pollution
control activities by increasing the funds available for Program
Grants; to stimulate a faster rate of construction of pollution-
abatement structures (with a degree of treatment specified on a
case-by-case basis in accordance with the receiving stream's use-
classification) by increasing the funds available for Construction
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Grants; to increase the latitude and intensity of research on sewage
and waste treatment that has the goal of producing an effluent that
not only does not require dilution water but is free of toxic and
pathogenic materials, at a reasonable cost; and finally, to continue
all other phases of our current program with ever increasing enthu-
siasm and zeal.
By supporting the state programs for pollution abatement
and control in their intrastate streams, the Public Health Service
will need only to take a stand on the quality requirements of
waters passing from one state to another with conflicting quality
requirements. No across-the-board stand should be specified in
advance, for each case must be decided on the quality requirements
of the downstream state users. Conventional primary, secondary,
and even tertiary or polishing treatment are primarily limited to
removal of oxygen-demanding organic materials.
Pre and post-chlorination may become mandatory to prevent
viral epidemics if the rising trend in those diseases is proved to
be water-borne. In the year ending September 3, 1960, nearly
34,000 cases of infectious hepatitis were reported in the United
States — a 62 per cent increase over the preceding year. Also,
the current Public Health Service program of nationwide surveillance
of fish kills has revealed that 73 out of 185 cases were caused by
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.agricultural poison and 57 of the 185 by industrial wastes. Surely
something more drastic than conventional secondary treatment is
•Indicated here. As a preventive health measure, it may be necessary
l:o prohibit the discharge or land-use of any potentially toxic chemi-
cal to a stream until its degree of toxicity has been established.
In agressively attacking the Nation's water pollution prob-
lems, we are assured of uninterrupted support (as contrasted with
the spring of 1953) by the recent statement of President Kennedy
in his address to Congress on February 23, 1961: " ... I urge
that this legislation strengthen enforcement procedures to abate
serious pollution situations of national significance." Also by
the legislature: Representative Blatnik, Chairman of the Rivers
and Harbors Subcommittee of the House Committee on Public Works,
has introduced H. R. 4036 to the 87th Congress to strengthen the
W.iter Pollution Control Act. His bill would increase Construction
Grants authorization to stimulate the construction of more1 sewage
treatment plants and would increase the monetary limit for individual
c:Lties from $300,000 to $600,000'; Federal enforcement would be ex-
tended to all navigable waters instead of the present interstate
waters; it would establish a $25 million Enforcement Construction1
Grants Fund to be available for financially hard-pressed1 communities
required to construct treatment facilities as a result of Federal
enforcement action, such funds to be available over and above regular
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state allottments of construction grants. The bill also retains
the states' primary rights and responsibilities for control of
water pollution and increases Federal grants to state and inter-
state agencies for administration of their programs from $3 million
s.nnual authorization to $5 million. The stimulus of these Program
Grants on state pollution control activities cannot be overestimated.
To cite one of the many states which is making great strides in
controlling pollution, California (which received $133,700 of
Program Grant funds in 1960) has its Dickey Water Pollution Control
Act. By vesting primary responsibility in nine regional water
pollution control boards, with statewide policy formulation by the
Water Pollution Control Board, it can take pride in an impressive
eight-year record of progress in pollution control even while its
population increased by 33 per cent.
Bills identical to Mr. Blatnik's were also introduced by
Representatives Frank E. Smith of Mississippi, John D. Dingell of
Michigan, and Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota.
With this assurance of support, we can optimistically assume
that the Public Health Service will have sufficient skilled personnel
end funds to preclude the need for the simple expedient of taking a
stand on mandatory secondary treatment. Instead, an intelligent
case-by-case program of action will be taken to prevent or abate
pollution in every problem basin in the Nation.
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