&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Policy,
Planning, and Evaluation
Washington, DC 20460
Office of Policy Analysis
June 1989
Natural Resources for the 21st Century:
An Evaluation of the Effects of Land Use on
Environmental Quality
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NATURAL RESOURCES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY:
AN EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE
ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
prepared by
The Environmental Resources Inventory Project
Environmental Resources Branch
Office of Policy Analysis
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 1989
For additional information, contact:
Robert Wolcott, Director,
Environmental Resources Economics Division
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
PM-221, 401 M Street, SW
Washington, DC 20460
EPA Headquarters Library
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PREFACE
The implementation of the conservation provisions of the Food Security Act of 1985
(FSA) brought increased focus on the role that changes in land management practices
might play in environmental conservation. The early success of the FSA Conservation
Reserve Program in retiring excess, highly erodible cropland and the program's potential
to yield great water quality and wildlife habitat gains through targeting critical ecosystems
suggested that other land uses including forestry, range, and mineral production could be
reviewed from this same perspective. In addition, that program gave rise to the need to
examine the long-term trends in land resource demand and the nature, scale, and location
of future opportunities for changing land uses.
Therefore, in March 1987, the Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation in EPA
initiated an analysis of the major land uses in the U.S. and the opportunities to protect
environmental quality. The research team, which came to be known as the Environmental
Resources Inventory Project Group, utilized a variety of federal agency data bases, status
reports, and projections in conducting its analysis. The acreage and land quality data for
this report have been reviewed and reconciled across all the federal information sources
and are considered fairly reliable to characterize the nation's natural resources. However,
several projections produced by some of the federal agencies were found to be inadequate
and were revised. The following report was completed by January 1988 and evaluated by
all the program offices in EPA and the Range Sections were evaluated by the U.S. Soil
Conservation Service, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Forest Service.
It should be noted that since the inventory was completed, one key determinant of
land use has changed. The severe drought of 1988, which actually was an extension of low
precipitation starting in 1987, devastated crop production in much of the central and
western regions of the U.S. Wetlands and rangelands dried up, many forests easily caught
on fire, and water levels in most rivers fell dramatically. If these weather conditions persist
into 1989, the excess capacity conditions in cropland and rangeland, described in this
report, would dissipate. Conditions like a prolonged drought must be considered to the
greatest extent possible in making long-term projections as they greatly affect how our
natural resources are used and to what extent changes in resource use adversely affect the
environment.
Absent the unlikely extension of this period of very low precipitation, the underlying
factors of supply and demand for food, forest products, and minerals will dominate.
Therefore, aggregate land resource use patterns outlined in the following inventory and
analysis are likely to remain the same.
Robert M. Wolcott
June 1989
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to extend special thanks to Will Erwin for his guidance and
inspiration throughout the development of this document. We also want to thank the many
public servants at the federal and state level who provided materials essential to our
research. In addition, we also would like to thank the many reviewers of the document,
including Robert Wolcott, Brendan Doyle, and Peter Caulkins of the EPA.
Glen Anderson, EPA
Peter Kuch, EPA
Steve Lovejoy, EPA
Jim Jones, EPA
Catherine Long, Environmental Law Institute
Ken Andrasko, Environmental Law Institute
Ellen Tohn, EPA
June 1989
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface iii
Acknowledgements iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures viii
Executive Summary ix
Chapter I: Introduction 1
Chapter II: National and Regional Perspectives on Land Use 3
Chapter III: Examination of Land Use in Individual Sectors 17
A. Agricultural Land 17
B. Forests 37
C. Range and Pasture 46
D. Urban and Built-Up Land 57
E. Outdoor Recreation and Open Space 61
F. Wetlands 68
G. Minerals 80
Chapter IV: Projections of Future Land Uses 91
A. Agricultural Land 92
B. Forests 103
C. Range and Pasture 110
Chapter V: Conclusion 113
References 115
Appendix A: Land Use, by State 119
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1 U.S. Acreage Breakdown, by region 5
2 Land Use in USDA Crop Production Regions 20
3 Use of Cropland in USDA Crop Production Regions 21
4 Corn Acreage, Output and Yields 22
5 Soybeans Output, Acreage and Yields 24
6 Variable Production Costs, Yields and Net
Revenue for Soybean Production in 3 Regions 25
7 1986 Rice Acreage, Output and Yields 26
8 1986 Cotton Acreage, Output and Yields 27
9 1986 Wheat Acreage, Output and Yields 29
10 1986 Hay Acres Harvested, Output and Yields 30
11 Agricultural Pesticide Use and Application Rates 33
12 Pesticide Application Rates by Region 34
13 Percent Change in Planted Acres 1982-86
For Selected Crops 36
14 Forest Acreage Statistics 41
15 Sawtimber Volume, Removals, and Growth 42
16 Forest Erosion Statistics 44
17 Forest Ownership Statistics 45
18 Acreage of Range and Pasture in the United States 49
19 Ownership of Range and Pasture 50
20 Condition of Range and Pasture 51
21 Erosion on Private Rangeland, 1982 53
22 Change in Water-Based Erosion on Private
Rangeland, 1977 to 1982 57
23 Regional Land Base in Urban Areas 59
24 Federal Recreation Land, by Region 64
25 Public Recreation Land, by Region 65
26 Outdoor Recreation Statistics 65
27 Estimated Wetland Values per Acre, from
Recent Studies 71
28 Federal Wetlands, 1985 73
29 Wetlands Estimates for Contiguous States, 1980s 73
30 Summary of Current Wetlands Acreage Estimates,
in Million of Acres 74
31 Pattern of Wetland Loss by Physiographic Region 76
32 Percent of Vegetated Wetland Loss to Different
Uses by Physiographic Region 77
33 Uses of Land by the Mining Industry, by Region, 1930-71 80
34 1985 Production of Coal, Stone, and Sand & Gravel 81
35 U.S. Coal Production, 1985 84
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Table Paae
36 Acres Mined and Reclaimed During Surface Mining,
1974-1978 and 1983 86
37 Sulfur and Heat Content of Coal by Rank, 1985 87
38 Coal Production in 1970 and 1985, by Region 88
39 Cropland Available, Used and Idle 93
40 Acreage by Crop 94
41 Output by Crop 94
42 Exports by Crop 95
43 Projection of Acres Planted by Crop 96
44 Projection of Output by Crop 96
45 Actual and Estimated Acres Planted to Five
Crops: 1986v. 1990/95 97
46 Actual and Estimated Regional Share of Wheat
Acres Planted: 1986 v. 1990/91 98
47 Actual and Estimated Regional Share of Corn
Acres Planted: 1986 v. 1990/91 99
48 Actual and Estimated Regional Share of Soybean
Acres Planted: 1986 v. 1990/91 100
49 Actual and Estimated Regional Share of Cotton
Acres Planted: 1986 v. 1990/91 101
50 Actual and Estimated Regional Share of Cotton
Acres Planted: 1986 v. 1990/91 102
51 Area of Commercial Forestland in the
U.S. by Owner Class 104
52 Area of Commercial Forestland in the
U.S. by Region 104
53 Comparison of Base Level and Equilibrium
Forecasts, 2030 105
54 Softwood Stumpage Price Index, Past and Future 106
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1 Distribution of Land Uses in the United States 4
2 Major Regions of the United States 5
3 Percent Cropland by State 21
4 Distribution of Corn Acreage 23
5 Distribution of Soybean Acreage by Region 24
6 Distribution of Rice Acreage by Region 26
7 Distribution of Cotton Acreage by Region 28
8 Distribution of Wheat Acreage by Region 29
9 Percent of Forest Cover, by Region, 1977 37
10 Percent of Range and Pasture in Each Region 47
11 Ecological Status of USFS Suitable Range in
Satisfactory and Unsatisfactory Condition 52
12 Condition of Privately Owned Range 55
13 Condition of BLM Range 55
14 Apparent Trends in Rangeland Condition for
Private, BLM, and USFS Range 56
15 Proportion of Urban/Built-up Uses by State 58
16 Percent of Public Land Providing
Public Recreation 63
17 Location of Critical Wetland Areas 69
18 Percentage of Wetlands Remaining 76
19 Percentage of Wetlands Protected 78
20 Wetlands Feasible for Agricultural Production,
by Region and Acreage 79
21 Major U.S. Coal Fields 82
22 U.S. Demonstrated Coal Reserve Base, 1985 83
23 Geographic Comparison of Land Used and
Reclaimed by State, 1930-1971 86
24 Coal Leases, Mines, Production, and Royalities
per ton on the Public Domain, 1950-1980 89
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Less than a decade ago, Americans were concerned about the adequacy of our land
base to meet the full range of demands for natural resources, both at home and overseas.
Reports such as Limits to Growth suggested that the possibility that our land base may
not be able to generate increasing levels of outputs to meet projected demand for food and
fiber, minerals, open space, and development.
From the vantage point of 1988, however, the situation has changed. Concerns
about the ability of food and fiber production to meet demand have vanished in the face of
huge surpluses—the result of productivity improvements overseas that stifled demand for
our exports, technological improvements that boosted crop yields at home, and sundry
political decisions and government support program changes.
Over the next few decades, at least 45 to 65 million of acres of farmland will be
withdrawn from our pool of cropland, and become available for other purposes, based on
USDA data and EPA research. America also has an adequate supply of range and forest
lands to meet the needs of the meat, lumber, and paper industries, especially in light of new
sociological trends toward smaller families, lower birth rates, and less red meat in the
average diet. Other land use sectors may increase their demand for land, but the projected
impacts are likely to be small and focused in a few geographic regions.
Environmental policy makers are beginning to realize that many of the remaining
natural resource management problems, especially extensive ones like nonpoint source
water pollution or atmospheric loadings from agricultural activities, cannot be managed
in EPA's current framework, and require a new approach.
These concerns within EPA launched the Environmental Resources Inventory
Project (ERIP) within the Office of Policy Analysis in the spring of 1987 to collect, analyze,
and organize national-level data on current and projected land use in the United States.
ERIP was also asked to look at resources not directly within the purview of EPA, and assess
how specific land use practices impinge on environmental quality. This report is a
summary of ERIP's efforts to compile land use data at the national and regional levels, and
interpret their validity.
Natural Resources for the 21st Century is based upon existing data and forecasts.
It attempts to illustrate the interrelations among a variety of land uses, and to recognize
the implications of these subtle interrelations for the Agency's mission in protecting
environmental quality—by identifying some large-scale conflicts among different demands
on the land by use sectors, and some environmental externalities associated with uses.
This summary of the ERIP final report, Natural Resources For The 21st Century.
is divided into several sections: 1) Findings (highlights of the research), 2) Implications for
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EPA (policies and programs), and 3) Data Summary (how land uses have shifted among
and within resource sectors and geographic regions).
Land use activities discussed in this report are divided into seven categories: (1)
agriculture, (2) forestry, (3) range and pasture, (4) urban and transportation, (5) open
space, (6) wetlands, and (7) minerals. For each category, the staff assembled data on
acreage, quantity and value of outputs, other economic indicators, and environmental
effects. In general, data on recent trends and the current situation were of good quality,
particularly for agriculture, forestry, range, and minerals. These are sectors largely under
the purview of one or two federal agencies, namely the departments of Agriculture and the
Interior. For the remaining sectors, there is no lead agency that collects or serves as a
repository for data on land use.
Projections of future land use for most sectors are rudimentary and of limited use
to the Agency for predicting changes more than a few years into the future. Generally
speaking, the projections were relatively unsophisticated, used models that did not
adequately reflect changes in other sectors, and often relied on basic assumptions about
growth in GNP, population, and product demand that were arbitrary or inconsistent with
assumptions used in other sector models. There were numerous conceptual flaws in the
specification of the underlying models and omissions in the selection of variables that
seriously undermine the reliability of the projections. Accurate long-term projections may
be impossible, but they were supposed to be accurate. They all assume current behavior
will continue unchanged. All of the projections have failed to track recent trends.
Therefore, ERIP sought to comment and make alternative projections on land use,
discussed below.
I. MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE ERIP REPORT
The most salient findings of ERIP have been grouped into two categories: land use
shifts and environmental effects of land use activities.
Land Use Shifts
1. There appears to be adequate acreage to meet our food and fiber needs at least into the
next 50 years.
o In agriculture, ERIP projected that 45 to 65 million acres of cropland are
expected to be idled because of sluggish export demand, depressed farm prices,
large commodity crop surpluses, and continued productivity growth.
o When certain assumptions on the annual number of housing starts are made,
the supply of timber for the next three or more decades appears adequate. The
Southeast, with high growth rates and low management costs, will continue to
increase in importance relative to other producing regions of the United States.
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o The adequacy of range and pasture lands depends on assumptions of per capita
beef consumption. If present trends continue, there is more than adequate range
and pasture to meet beef demand into the future. In fact, there appear to be
opportunities to improve range quality by limiting grazing herds and reducing
the length of the grazing season.
2. A large proportion of idled crop acreage is not expected to be converted to non-agricul-
tural uses.
o Between 45 and 65 million acres of cropland will be enrolled in the Conservation
Reserve Program. Analysts anticipate that CRP land will return to cropping
activities when 10-year CRP contracts expire, provided economic conditions are
favorable.
o The remaining idle lands will be used for livestock pasture or developed for
commercial timber production, primarily in the Southeast.
o Although the Corn Belt has the highest demand for wildlife and fishingactivi-
ties of any region in the United States, there appear to be significant market and
institutional impediments to managing the conversion of idled cropland to attain
environmental benefits associated with sustaining wildlife and aquatic habitat.
3. New agricultural and urban development represent serious threats to remaining
wetland areas. Wetlands conversion rates will be particularly high in the Southeast and
Delta states, regions with high urban development rates, and ones unlikely to be protected
from agricultural conversion by USDA's Swampbuster rules.
4. The highest demand for recreational lands in the United States is for high quality
publicly accessible lands close to urban populations (within a one-hour drive or 15-minute
walk). Protection of lands that could meet this increasing demand is made difficult by
competition from development interests. The problem is particularly acute in the
Southeast, a region where significant urban development is expected in the next few
decades.
5. Adequate supplies of coal, a primary source of energy, appear to be available. However,
production is starting to shift from the Appalachian region to the Mountain region,
specifically to Wyoming and Montana.
6. Development of coal resources has not only shifted regionally, but also in method, from
primarily underground mining to surface mining. Land resources may be threatened by
broad-scale surface mining in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana, an area
extending over 20,000 square miles and containing 45 billion short tons of coal.
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Environmental Effects of Land Use Activities
Application of chemicals in agriculture and forestry
o Agriculture uses 75% of the pesticides consumed in the U.S., with the Corn Belt
utilizing the greatest quantity (in pounds of active ingredients). Iowa and Illinois
alone use 22% of the nation's total pounds applied. The Southeast and Appalachian
regions have the highest rates of application.
o With the shift in timber production from the Pacific region to the Southeast,
increased herbicide, sediment, and saw mill effluent loadings to ground and
surface water are likely to occur in the Southeast.
Harvesting of Timber
o Recent trends of high harvest levels of timber in the Delta States region may
have significant long-term impacts on water supply and water quality (espe-
cially TSS and herbicide levels). This region is characterized by ground water
overdrafts, and wetlands systems dependent on reliable supplies of water.
Mineral extraction resulting in deterioration of water resources
o While the coal mining industry has reclaimed over half of its mined lands,
significant local contamination from mine wastes and tailings still poses serious
threats to water quality, particularly in the Appalachian region.
Agricultural production resulting in soil erosion
o The Corn Belt has been experiencing among the highest erosion rates in the
country.
o Over 60% of the range and pasture land is classified as in fair or poor condition,
after long periods of overgrazing. Range quality on public grazing lands
continues to be far below that of private lands. High erosion rates are associated
with the loss of critical plant cover.
Urban and built-up land uses causing NFS loadings
o Regional demographic shifts will tend to alter patterns of loadings on natural
resources from already populated urban core areas of the Northeast and
Mid west to surrounding rural counties and to fast-growth counties predominately
located in Florida, South Carolina, Texas, Washington, D.C., Arizona and
Southern California. In addition, commercial development trends feature higher
growth rates outside of traditional Central Business Districts in urban centers
in surrounding counties, in all parts of the country except old urban centers in
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.
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II. IMPLICATIONS OF THIS STUDY
Many of the remaining environmental problems facing EPA sterii from extensive
land use activities. These include: •
(1) non-point loadings from agricultural and urban sources in' rivers? streams', and
" ; lakes; ;
(2) fertilizers and pesticides in ground water; and
(3) ecological effects such as habitat modification and loss of wildlife species in
wetlands, estuaries and other open spaces.
For the most part, EPA has only limited direct influence over the management and control
of externalities associated with economic activities on these lands. Other federal agencies
either manage vast acreage (DOI, BLM, and USFS) or influence resource; allocation
decisions made by private owners (e.g., USDA farm programs).
Our inventory of land use activities and environmental control policies which affect
theni suggests the heedfor cooperative interagency approaches to managing environmental
problems. EPA has experience and a comparative advantage in managing environmental
quality effects and in articulating environmental quality goals. We need to communicate
these goals to other agencies, identify potential conflicts between competing objectives,
and propose alternatives which represent "win-win" opportunities in terms of environmental
improvements and economic gains. "Win-win" opportunities also exist for meeting other
agencies' program goals.
The study also identifies serious gaps in data and analyses of land use trends and
cross-sector environmental impacts. First, there is a need for integrated sector projections
that utilize common assumptions about key macro-scale parameters such as economic
activity and demographic shifts. Second, if we want to identify effective strategies for
protecting wetlands and other important open space lands, we need better data on
conversion rates and market and institutional factors which influence these rates. Third,
we need to understand the short-term and long-run effects of pollution (or processes
affected by pollution, such as global warming) on ongoing activities in the land-use sectors
studied. For example, one of the major sources of uncertainty in agriculture is the effect
that changes in temperature and precipitation will have on productivity., We are also
looking at the implications of implementing the Endangered Species Act, given the use of
pesticides on farm, forest, and range lands.
Perhaps the most interesting findings of the study pertain to agriculture. In the
near term, U.Si farm policy is focusing on supply stabilization of the major commodity
crops. The principal tool of the federal farm program in reducing surpluses- is the
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), designed to remove up to 45 million acres of
cropland for 10 years. EPA is presently pursuing opportunities to target some of the CRP
lands for water quality. We are also conducting analyses of the environmental, economic
and budgetary effects of removing an additional 20 million acres (the Nunn-Cochrane bill
proposal) from production.
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Other components of the Food Security Act of 1985 also provide opportunities for
achieving environmental quality improvements. The Highly Erodible Land and Wetland
Conservation provisions of the Act are designed to discourage cropping of erodible land and
conversion of wetlands to crop uses, and encourage farmers to implement conservation
plans to control erosion. Again, there appear to be opportunities to implement these
provisions in ways which effectively promote water quality goals.
While farm programs will alleviate some of the near-term distress in agriculture,
chronic oversupply of commodity crops will continue to be a problem unless there is
substantial growth in export demand. What direction in U.S. farm policies will put
agriculture on a steadier economic path? And, can we simultaneously achieve significant
reductions in non-point loadings from agriculture? We are currently using a macroeconomic
modelling system to examine some long-term directions in management at the farm level
and in alternative national farm policies.
III. DATA SUMMARY: REGIONAL AND SECTORAL FINDINGS
THE CURRENT SITUATION
Agriculture, forestry, and range and pasture are the major land use sectors in the
United States, representing 90% of the 2.27 billion acres of available land. Residential and
commercial development and all transportation uses account for only 3.3% of total acreage.
Because of the vast differences in land use, this report utilizes a regional framework
(see Figure 1 below) for discussing land use patterns in each sector.
FIGURE 1: Regions of the United States
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AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FINDINGS
The United States contained 986 million acres of farmland in 1982, with 445 million
acres classified as cropland. Cropland acres are concentrated in three regions (the Corn
Belt, Northern Plains, and Southern Plains) and in six crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, hay,
cotton, and rice). The Corn Belt produces 61% and
54% of U.S. soybean and corn output, while the Northern Plains and Southern Plains
account for 51% of wheat production.
Between 1982 and 1986, planted acreage in the major crops declined by 30 million
acres (about 8%) because of a weak export market, large surpluses, and depressed prices.
Idled acreage was concentrated in three regions of marginally productive lands and less
favorable topography: Appalachia, the Southeast, and the Delta States, the same regions
in which cropland acreage grew rapidly in the 1970s during the export market boom. This
trend of idling cropland is likely to continue at least a decade.
Agriculture has become increasinginput intensive and less space extensive over the
past several decades, in addition to producing commodities to meet the demand for food and
fiber. One result has been an increase in loading of ground and surface water with
agricultural chemicals and soil runoff. Loss of soil is a significant problem on over a third
of the nation's cropland, causing degradation of water quality in many lakes, rivers, and
streams.
Water supply and quality concerns attend agriculture in the Mountain, Pacific, and
Delta regions in particular, all of which currently have areas where ground water is being
withdrawn for irrigation faster than it can be recharged. Colorado and Idaho alone irrigate
a total of 12 million acres. The increasing salinity of irrigation return waters has prompted
studies by the federal Fish and Wildlife Service and others to investigate contamination
of wildlife refuges.
Agriculture uses an 75% of the pesticides consumed in the U.S. The Corn Belt
utilizes the greatest quantity (in pounds of active ingredients). Monocultural cropping
patterns that have evolved in the past several decades encourage heavy use of pesticides—
Iowa and Illinois alone require 22% of the nation's total pounds applied. However, the less-
fertile soils and steep topography of the Southeast and Appalachia promote the highest
rates of pesticide application in the country. Some of this use poses serious risks for surface
and ground water supplies.
Regional variation in agriculture is considerable. The early 1980s saw widespread
conversion of bottomland forest, wetland, and pasture to soybeans in the Southeast during
a robust export market, but that land use shift recently has slowed as a consequence of
falling soybean prices. The Pacific region has proportionately less area in cropland (11%)
than any other except the Mountain region. However, many of the 22 million acres in
agriculture in the Pacific region are devoted to high-value crops (e.g., orchard fruits, fresh
vegetables) of great importance to the nation's economy and diet.
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FORESTRY SECTOR FINDINGS
Forests covered 736 million acres or 34% of the United States in 1977. Commercial
forests, those with growth rates of at least 20 cubic feet per acre per year, accounted for 482
million acres. Ninety percent of the non-commercial forested acres are located in the arid
regions west of the Mississippi, in both private and public ownership. While not
commercially profitable in the absence of subsidies, these dry Western forested acres
provide high-valued recreational amenities, wildlife habitat and watershed protection.
Growth exceeds removal in every region except the Pacific, where old-timber stands have
been providing substantial timber harvests.
As the availability of these old-growth stands in the Pacific region declines, the
forest products industry appears to be shifting to the Southern regions, to take advantage
of high growth rates and low management costs. Industrial forestry firms in the Southeast
own the highest percentage of forest land of any region (15%). The Southeast's forests
feature highly productive southern pine plantations, and account for 10% of the nation's
forest land and 20% of annual tree growth.
Just under a third of our commercial forest producing over 85 cu. ft./ac. of growth
(i.e., the most productive forest) is found in the Delta region. Vast tracts of species-rich
bottomland hardwood forests along the Mississippi Alluvial Plains, once totalling 24
million acres, are being harvested and converted to cropland, reducing that ecosystem to
barely 5 million acres. Forests in the Pacific Region comprise only 13% of the nation's forest
land, but include some of our most productive forests and most valuable species (e.g., Port
Orford cedar, redwood, Douglas fir). Forty percent of the commercial forest land there
produces over 120 cu ft/ac, mostly on Forest Service lands (31 million acres).
RANGE AND PASTURE SECTOR FINDINGS
Range and pasture account for nearly 900 million acres of land in the United States,
with over 700 million in the lower 48 states. Regions west of the Mississippi contain 90%
of the country's rangelands, with the Mountain states region dominating acreage figures
with its 327 million acres in range. Pasture is much more uniformly distributed, but tends
to be concentrated in the Corn Belt, Southern Plains, and Appalachian regions.
Over 60% of the range and pasture land is classified as being of only fair or poor
quality. This predominance of low-quality rangeland suggests that substantial quality
improvements in range vegetation could increase the output of rangelands (largely fodder
for livestock, and water), if needed, without increases in land area. Another important
indicator of the quality of range and pasture is the rate of soil loss, since low rates indicate
good vegetative cover. While average soil loss rates are low, certain areas contribute a
disproportionate amount of the total tons of soil loss from range and pasture (e.g.
California, Missouri and Kentucky), suggesting possibilities for targeted management of
range nonpoint source water pollution.
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'While the. quality of range'and pasture land has been improving over the-past 40
years, these indicators suggest that range resource managers could improve the quality of
existing range and pasture. It appears that the land resources are adequate to meet
present demand (or even considerably greater demand) -for grazing. The demand for range
and pasture is primarily tied to the beef cattle market^ and the demand Tor beef in the
United. States has been> declining over the past two decades,. The direction of this trend—
whetherit continues or reverses—willlargely determine the demand for range;and pasture
land in the future. . .
From a regional perspective, California is 42% range, virtually all of which is in
excellent condition as a result of vigorous replanting. Despite this .high quality of
vegetative communities, California's range has the highest erosion rates of any rarigeland
in the country. In contrast, only 15% of Texas's vast rangeland (over halfof thelahd in the
"state) is considered in good :or excellent shape todays the lowest such measure in the
country.
URBAN AND BUILT-UP LANDS SECTOR FINDINGS
: Urban and built-up lands constitute only 2% of the nation's land base, but are
disproportionately important; since over 70% of America's people live and work in theni.
The nation's people, and therefore urban lands,,are concentrated in a few areas of the
country, namely the East Coast, and along the Great Lakes and the West Coast.
This^concentration of population is evident when one examines the proportion of a
region's land that is utilized forDurban and built-up space. The Northeast and Southeast
have the highest percentage (7.3% arid5.7%, respectively) of land that is urbanized, while
the Northern Plains and Mountain States regions use less than 1% of their land for urban-
and built-up purposes. However from 1970 to 1980, the Mountain States region had one
of "the highest rates of growth (60%), while the traditional urban areas (Northeast, Corn
Belt, andiLa^e States) had rates of growth in urban acres of less than 30%. These trends
also are reflected in the growth of residential development.
Whilecdihmercialdevelopment expanded more rapidly in the South and West from
1970 to 1980, the difference was less pronounced. A major trend in commercial development
is construction outside of the Central Business District (CBD). In many of the older
industrial citie>, over one-half of new-office construction is occurring outside of the CBD.
In some cities, two-thirds of new office construction is occurring beyond the CBD (e.g.,
Washington, DC). This expansion of urban areas may have dramatic impacts upon
environmental quality, including the destruction of wildlife habitat and open space,
increased pollution of ground and surface water by lawn and garden pesticides, disposal
of waste water sludge, arid iri'creased pressure • on landfills.
Traditional concern over the competition between urban and agricultural land uses
has recently been matched by concern over preservation of open spaces;near metropolitan
areas. Several states have created programs to purchase developmentrights to land that
insure the protection of open space and allow for continued agricultural production. In
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some regions, the competition will occur less for land resources than for the water resources
needed both by urban areas and agriculture (e.g., the Southwest).
OUTDOOR RECREATION AND OPEN SPACE SECTOR
Outdoor recreation and open space is a different type of sector. The products of this
sector are not generally bought and sold in the marketplace and exhibit many characfemjtics
of public goods. In addition, while recreation requires access toland resources, open space
benefits can be derived from scenic views without physical access.
A tremendous number of acres of public recreational land are set aside in the United
States. However there are significant differences between the distribution of the people
and the distribution of the recreational lands. While the western half of the continental
United States contains over 80% of the acres of public recreational land, over 70% of the
people live in the eastern portion of the country. There are more than 100 times as many
people per square mile of public recreational land in the Corn Belt region as in the
Mountain States region, ,
Less than 10% of noncorporate owners of forest and range land allow open access to
the public, although in some locales private lands constitute a significant recreational
resource. Generally, in most areas of the country the opportunity for public use of private
forest or range land for recreational purposes, is severely limited.
From a regional vantage point, Southeast .fast-growth counties concentrated iri
South Carolina and Florida are/sites of intense competition both for agricultural and
recreational land. The Southeast has the lowest percentage of private land open to the
public (13%) of any region, and the lowest rate of neighborhood parks (only 45% of residents
have one nearby). The Corn Belt is the second most populated region, ranking only behind
the Northeast. Only a very small percentage of the regionis in public lands (less than 4%),
yet it has the highest demand for wildlife and fishing activities in the country.
Farther west, Texas has been experiencing rapid growth in a number of counties
surrounding its largest cities, increasing cpmpetition for agricultural and range land, arid
for water. Only 2% of Texas is public recreation land, and a scant 15% of its enormous
coastline and barrier islands are open to public access, posing questions about its ability
to satisfy emerging open space demand.
WETLANDS SECTOR FINDINGS
Wetlands have traditionally been considered useless acres until drained and used
for crops, pasture, or urban land. Millions of acres of wetlands have been drained and
utilized for agriculture and for urban purposes, leaving less than 100 million acres of
wetlands in the continental United.States. The remaining wetlands are concentrated in
a few regions, particularly in the Southeast (which has just under 28 million acres of
wetlands), Delta, and Lake States. About 12 million acres of swamps and marshes are
XVlll
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found in southern Louisiana—12% of the state— including one-third of the coastal
marshes of the contiguous states.
Recent investigations have shown wetlands to be quite valuable for a variety of
environmental reasons: to act as filters for water bodies, to protect lands from flood and
wave damage, and to provide valuable habitat for commercial fisheries as well as sport
fisheries. The functions that wetlands perform have been valued at from $700 to over
$4000 per acre. In order to preserve wetlands for their qualities of enhancing water quality
and providing wildlife habitat, a number of federal and state statutes have been enacted.
However, many observers are pessimistic about the ability of this legislation to overcome
market pressures to convert wetlands into other uses.
One major source of new cropland over the past several decades has been the
extensive 100,000 square-mile Prairie Pothole region wetlands, which produce fully half
of the nation's annual duck crop but were being systematically drained and plowed. Just
to the south of the Potholes, intensive extraction of ground water to irrigate crops in the
Sandhills and Rainwater Basin areas of Nebraska and in Kansas are depleting the giganti c
Ogallala and other aquifers there, as well as drying up wetlands.
MINERALS SECTOR FINDINGS
Mineral extraction is vital to the nation's economy but requires relatively small
amounts ofland. As of 1971, the mining industry was using less than 0.2% of the land area
in the United States for land extensive mining activities (e.g., coal, stone, sand and gravel).
While some locales have experienced numerous mining developments that used a much
higher proportion of local lands (for example, portions of Kentucky and Northern Great
Plains), overall the mining industry is a relatively insignificant in the land use game.
Historically, Appalachia has been prominent for its production of soft bituminous
coal, yet total acreage mined is quite small. Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee all
have mined over 150,000 acres each. In spite of extensive reclamation, water quality in the
region has suffered from the leaching of mine
tailings into rivers and groundwater. Appalachia still produces 37% of the U.S. total coal
output today, ahead of the Mountain states and the Corn Belt. Surprisingly, 75% of Illinois
is a coal-bearing area, but its high value for cropland constrains production.
Mining interests can often outbid other users for parcels ofland thought to contain
significant mineral deposits, because of the high value of its products. While the acreage
involved is small, the environmental impacts of mining can be quite significant. Mining
activities can disrupt wildlife habitat and can pose serious water quality problems for both
surface and groundwater. The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 was
created to ensure that mined lands would be reclaimed, but there have been serious
questions raised concerning its efficacy at protecting land resources.
XIX
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TRENDS IN LAND USE
The demand for acres required for cropland, forestry, and range and pasture is
projected to be stable or declining for the next 30 to 50 years. While there will be some
increased demand for acreage for urban lands, transportation, and minerals, the aggregate
impact upon land use will be relatively small.
Projections of domestic and export demand for food and fiber products suggest that
the acres of cropland necessary for production will continue to decline. In the early part
of the next century, 100 to 200 million acres of land that is presently classified as cropland
will not be necessary. This estimated surplus may be conservative if some of the new
biotechnological breakthroughs succeed in increasing productivity.
The acres utilized for range and pasture have been declining for over 50 years and
projected demand suggests that this trend will continue. Range and pasture is primarily
utilized for grazing cattle and demand for beef has been declining. Per capita beef
consumption peaked at 135 pounds per year in 1975 and has fallen to 105-110 pounds per
year. With present technology (e.g., feeding efficiencies), the acres of range and pasture
.presently available would be sufficient to satisfy domestic demand even if per capita
consumption were 40 to 45% higher than at present. If beef demand increases more rapidly
than expected, the effect would likely be increased emphasis upon range improvement
rather than bringing additional acres into grazing.
Projections of supply and demand in the forest sector suggest that existing forest
land is sufficient for meeting demand for forest products well into the next century. In fact,
some analysts project declining forest acreage in the Southeast region, due to strong
competition for the acres from agriculture. This decline appears unlikely, however,
considering the flat or declining projections for growth in the demand for agricultural
products. It appears that the United States has adequate timber stands to meet our
demands for forest products for the foreseeable future.
This example of conflicting projections illustrates a major shortcoming of all of the
models of future land use that we examined. Each model was concerned with a single sector
and rarely examined how other sectors would interact with the one under study. The
interactions between sectors, especially in terms of competition for resources, is a major
force in the development of our economy and certainly for changes in our economy.
Traditionally, sectors of our economy have competed for land resources. In a market
economy such as ours, the right to use the land has been awarded to those with the highest
valued use, since they could afford to pay the most for the land. Therefore, agriculture has
been able to outbid forestry and preservation of wetlands, since production of food and fiber
products was a higher-valued use. Similarly, developers have been able to outbid
agriculture for those acres desired for residential and commercial building.
However, a new dimension has been introduced into the competition. Americans
have become concerned about the preservation of environmental amenities, including
wetlands, habitat, water quality. These amenities have become viewed as not only a luxury
XX
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enjoyed by a wealthy country but also as necessity required for protection of human health.
Present-day land use conflicts are often not over which use will be the valued the highest,
but instead over which use will minimize environmental degradation. Since most
environmental amenities are not bought and sold in the market place, the value of these
amenities becomes quite difficult to estimate. In addition, these environmental amenities
are often provided by some unit of government employing general tax dollars, while the
beneficiaries are generally a subset of all taxpayers.
This report and the research projects it has spawned seek to identify those land use
conflicts that involve environmental amenities. The ERIP staff are examining alternatives
for optimizing the use of natural resources in producing the goods and services demanded
by Americans, including environmental quality. In addition, we hope to identify situations
where, with only minimal alterations in public policies, the productive sectors of our
economy can continue to produce the goods and services desired by the public, while at the
same time protecting environmental amenities and natural resources.
xxi
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The demands on our land and water resources are continually changing, influenced
by domestic population growth and migration, technological change, international market
conditions, and changing preferences for produced goods, amenities and environ- mental
quality. Although there is much interest in the future availability of resources, few cross-
sector appraisals have been conducted. Most of these studies have been motivated by
percep- tions of closing land frontiers and fears of accelerated depletion rates for
nonrenewable resources. Two early studies, Scarcity and Growth and Limits to Growth.
addressed the issue of sustaining economic growth with limited and scarce resources.
Appraisals required by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of
1974 and the Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act of 1977 have focused on the
protection and management of basic renewable natural resources.
This report, like its predecessors, focuses on the current availability of natural
resources and future shifts in land use. In contrast to the environment of scarcity
surrounding previous studies, this appraisal comes at a time of immense agricultural
surpluses and stable energy and natural resource markets. It is motivated by a perception
of increasing public interest in iden- tifying public policies and programs that would better
facilitate the efficient use of natural resources in the United States. For EPA, with its
limited direct role in determining land and water use, an appraisal can help pinpoint future
stresses on environ- mental regulatory programs and identify opportunities to promote
environmental quality goals through indirect management of resources.
This report provides background information and analysis for examining new public
policy "opportunities." It describes the current patterns of land use in the United States
and presents some tentative findings on future shifts in land use. It focuses primarily on
space-extensive uses of land. Major emphasis throughout the report will be given to the
agricultural sector, where millions of acres can shift into and out of crop production over
very short time intervals. Agriculture also provides the greatest opportunities for
reallocating resources, given the current situation of overproduction, farm disinvestment,
high government outlays, and sagging farm incomes.
Chapter II of the report provides baseline data on acreage at the national and
regional levels. It is also intended to give a sense of how land use patterns vary across
regions. In Chapter III, we take an in-depth look at the current situation for seven land
use categories: (1) Agriculture; (2) Forestry; (3) Range; (4) Urban and Transportation; (5)
Open Space; (6) Wetlands; and (7) Minerals. Projections of land use shifts and changes in
the demand and supply for natural resources are presented in Chapter IV. These
projections are taken from existing studies and do not represent new analysis. A critique
of key assumptions in the models is also provided to help the reader judge the quality of
the projections.
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CHAPTER II
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON LAND USE
Land use patterns are determined largely by soil, climate, topography, and economics.
To provide an exhaustive inventory of acreage without excessive double counting, we have
classified land into six categories. These categories are different from the seven land use
sectors described in Chapter I and discussed in greater detail in Chapters III and IV. The
six land categories are:
Cropland: Harvested, idle, and failed cropland; cropland reseeded and used for
pasture at varying intervals; and cropland in summer fallow, cover crops,
legumes, and soil-improved grasses not harvested or pastured.
Forests: Private and public land with at least 10 percent of its area in trees.
Range and Pasture: Private and public lands that provide or are capable of
providing forage for grazing or browsing animals. Pasture, unlike range, is
typically managed (cultivated, seeded, fertilized, or irrigated).
Urban and Transportation: All urban built-up land plus acreage used for
highways, rail service, and airports.
Minor Cover: Rural land other than cropland, pasture, range, and forests. It
includes land for farm and ranch buildings; other lands in farms, mines, quarries,
and pits; small built-up areas and other rural lands; and nonproductive lands,
such as deserts, icefields, and unforested mountains.
Other Federal Lands: Lands managed by the Department of Defense, the
Bureau of Indian Affairs, and other federal agencies not included in the forest,
range, or minor cover categories.
This chapter first provides a national overview of land use, and then examines land use
patterns in eleven geographical regions. Appendix A contains a more detailed description
of acreage data and sources.
A. NATIONAL OVERVIEW
In 1985, the nation's population was 240 million, up from 226 million in the 1980
Census. The total acreage in the six land categories defined above differs from the 1980
Census total of 2.27 billion acres by less than 0.1 percent. This result is somewhat
fortuitous since our ability to account for all acreage by land use category varies from state
to state. The distribution of acreage by land category is illustrated in Figure 1 for the
-------
United States. By far, the largest portion of the total land area is classified as range and
pasture (38.7% of the U.S.). Forests rank second (33.7%), followed by cropland (18.0%),
minor cover (5.4%), urban and transportation (3.4%) and other federal lands (0.9%). Sixty-
eight percent of land in the United States is privately or state-owned and the remainder
is federally owned.
FIGURE 1: Distribution of Land Uses in the United States
Other Fed. (0.8%)
k.
Range/Pasture (38.7°/<
Forest (33.7%)
Urban Trans. (3.4%)
~**f*ff*^ff*fjj*j*. ~\.
Minor Cover (5.4%)
Cropland (18.0%)
Much of the analysis in this report focuses on the contiguous forty-eight states. In
only one sector (forestry) is there much discussion about Alaska. Because of its diminutive
size, Hawaii is only briefly discussed in the report. When we look at the distribution of land
for the contiguous states, there is no change in the relative rankings of the six categories.
However, the percentage of land in minor cover for the contiguous states falls to 3.1% from
5.4% when Alaska's minor cover is excluded. Also, the percentage of cropland increases
from 18.0% to 22.2% for the contiguous states since there is limited cropland in Alaska.
R REGIONAL OVERVIEW
To provide a more disaggregated perspective on land use patterns, we have divided
the land area of the United States into eleven regions (see Figure 2). For the 48 contiguous
states, we have used the ten regional divisions found in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's
(USDA's) Crop Production Reports. The eleventh region, the Far Pacific, includes Alaska
and Hawaii. Although there are other regional schemes (e.g., Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Forest Service), USDA gives more emphasis to
similarities in agricultural production activities. Later on in this report, our use of these
divisions will facilitate our discussion of present and future trends in land use.
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FIGURE 2: Major Regions of the United States
For the eleven individual regions, acreage in the six land use categories does not
match Census acreage as well as for the United States as a whole (see Table 1).
Nevertheless, except for the Southern Plains region, the discrepancy in total acreage in
each region is less than 3% and the mean error is 1.87%. In the Southern Plains, significant
double counting in the range/pasture and forests categories accounts for the 5.5% error. A
short discussion of each region follows the table.
TABLE 1: U.S. Acreage Breakdown, by Region
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain States
Pacific
Far Pacific
United States
Acreage
(Bureau of
Census)
(millions)
111.7
123.8
123.6
92.1
164.8
122.2
194.4
211.6
547.3
204.2
2,265.1
Acreage in
Six Land Use
Categories
(millions)
114.1
126.6
126.5
92.0
162.5
121.3
189.2
223.2
537.5
201.2
368.9
2,263.1
Percentage
Difference
in Absolute
Value
0.1
1.4
0.,S
2.6
5.5
1.8
].4
HI
0.1
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THE NORTHEAST REGION
The Northeast region consists of the six New England and five
Mid-Atlantic states. Although not large in size (111.7 million
acres), the Northeast is the most densely populated region,
with 24% of the nation's population on only 5% of its
land area. Among the eleven regions, the Northeast
also ranks first in percentage of land in urban
and transportation uses (9.6%), and,
surprisingly, first in proportion of land
area covered by forests (63%). The
gigantic Boston-Washington urban ™
corridor includes a half-dozen large, old
piedmont cities.
Most of the region's forests now consist
of hardwoods naturally regenerated on former
cropland and pasture that farmers began to
abandon in the 1830s, when the newly opened
Erie Canal provided improved access to richer
lands in the Midwest. Only 26% of the forest
land has growth rates in excess of 85 cubic feet/
acre. All of this acreage is in Maine where 45%
of forest acres are planted in highly productive
softwoods.
•uiw.He-
Agriculture only plays a minor role in
terms of land cover in crops (15%) and in pasture
(8%). The distribution of cropland is fairly uneven—
ranging from a high of 42% of Delaware, to 28% of
Maryland, and down to a low of 4% of Rhode
Island. Wetlands and small water bodies, urban/Trans. (96%)
categorized as minor cover, comprise
_. Range/Pasture (7.7%)
about 5% of the region. These are
concentrated in Delaware and New other Fed <°4%)
Jersey.
The entire region has abundant rainfall,
but has poor soils in relation to the Midwest.
The Northeast's varied topography and
accessible coasts provide residents with diverse
recreational opportunities.
Percent of U.S. Total
24%
5%
4%
10%
1%
14%
4%
3%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urban/trans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
Copland (15.1%)
Minor Cover (4.6%)
forest (62.6%)
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THE APPALACHIAN REGION
The Appalachian Region, which extends west from the Mid-Atlantic Coast to the
Mississippi River, accounts for over 5% of the nation's land area, and over 9% of the
nation's population.
The forests that cover 58% of the region are
predominantly slow-growing hardwoods
returning to abandoned farms. However,
productive pine plantations are found on
the coastal plains and piedmont of
Virginia and North Carolina.
Agricultural activities which
constitute a major source of
employment, take place on a
third of the region's area.
Much of Appalachia's
agriculture is small in scale,
contributing only 5% of the
national stock of cropland,
and is of marginal profitability, even in the
best of times. Soil erosion rates are high, due
to the steep topography.
Historically, Appalachia has been
prominent for its production of soft
bituminous coal. Kentucky, West Virginia, and
Tennessee all have mined over 150,000 acres
each. In spite of extensive reclamation, coal
mining areas still bear visible scars of resource
development. Water quality in the region has
suffered from the leaching of mine tailings into
rivers and ground water.
Appalachia still produces 37% of
the U.S. total coal output today,
ranking ahead of the Mountain
states and the Corn Belt.
Percent of U.S. Total
9%
5%
5%
10%
2%
10%
3%
5%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urban/trans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Use
Urban/Trans. (5.7%)
Cropland (17.9%)
Range/Pasture (U.6%)
Other Fed. (0.6%)
Urban and trans- portation uses,
together with minor land cover account for
almost 9% of the region's acreage.
Minor Cover (3.1%)
Fores! (58%)
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THE SOUTHEAST REGION
The Southeast ranks only behind the
Northeast in percentage of land in forests and
in urban and transportation uses. Its forests,
featuring highly productive southern pine
plantations, account for 10% of the nation's
forest land and 20% of annual timber growth.
Significant shifts to industrial forestry in the
region are underway, to take advantage of high
growth rates and low management costs.
Industrial forestry firms in the Southeast own
the highest percentage of forest land of any
region (15%).
Cropland utilizes only 14% of the land base, supporting a
diversified mix of crops — soybeans, peanuts, cotton, fruits and
vegetables, and tobacco. The early 1980s saw considerable conversion of
secondary forests to soybeans, but that shift recently has slowed as a
consequence of falling soybean prices.
Together, rangeland and pasture account for about
13% of the Southeast. Almost one-fourth of Florida is
avail- able for grazing (6% of Florida is rangeland).
Another 10% of Florida is wetlands — cypress swamps,
sawgrass marshes, and estuaries along its 1,000-mile
coast. Just under 28 million acres of the Southeast are
wetlands — the greatest acreage of any region. These
wetlands are constantly threatened by housing and
agricultural demands for land.
Since the Second World War, the Southeast
has experienced rapid expansion of its urban areas
and development of its coastline, focused
primarily in Florida and South Carolina.
Fast-growth counties there are sites of
intense competition both for agricultural
and recreational land, since the Southeast
has the lowest percentage of private land
open to the public (13%) of any region, and the
lowest rate of neighborhood parks (only 45% of
residents have one nearby).
Percent of u.s. Total
10%
5%
4%
10%
2%
12%
5%
6%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urbanArans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (7.0%)
Cropland (14%)
Range/Pasture (12.7%)
Other Fed. (0.8%)
Minor Cover (5.0%)
Forest (60.0%)
8
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THE DELTA STATES
The Delta States region is a three-state
region containing about 4% of the nation's
population and 4% of its land area. The focal
point of the region, geographically and
economically, is the Mississippi River and its
vast delta. Most of the region's population is
situated along the river. New Orleans is a major
shipping port and center of the area's tourism
industry. The delta supports a varied fishing
and shellfishing industry.
Over half of the region is in forests,
dominated by rapidly growing conifers. Just
under a third of our commercial forest producing
over 85 cu. ft./ac. of growth is found in the Delta
region. Vast tracts of species-rich bottomlands
hardwood forests along the Mississippi Alluvial
Plains, once totalling 24 million acres, are being
harvested and converted to cropland, reducing that
ecosystem to barely 5 million acres. Agriculture is
practiced on 24% of the land, including major cotton
and soy crops.
About 12 million acres of swamps and marshes
are found along the southern coast of Louisiana (12%
of the state). These wetlands represent one-third of
the coastal marshes of the contiguous states.
Percent of U.S. Total
4% of population
4% of land area
5% of cropland
7% of forests
1% of range/pasture
5% of urban/trans.
3% of minor cover
1 % of other federal
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (3.9%)
Range/Pasture (13.6%)
Other Fed. (0.3%)
Cropland (23.8%)
Minor Cover (4.5%)
Forest (53.9%)
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THE CORN BELT
The Corn Belt is the United
States' major crop region,
containing 22% of the nation's
cropland on only 7% of the nation's
total land area. Cropland, primarily
devoted to corn and soybeans,
represents 57% of total acreage in
the region, ranging from a high of
74% for Iowa to a low of 34% for
Missouri, and is fairly stable in its
use from year to year.
Monocultural cropping patterns
encourage heavy use of pesticides—
Iowa and Illinois alone account for 22% of the nation's
applications (by weight.) Erosion rates in the region
are among the highest in the country as well.
Virtually no forest land of commercial value is
found in the Corn Belt. While 75% of Illinois is a coal-
bearing area, but its high value for cropland constrains
production.
Although 90% of its land is devoted to crops,
pasture and forest, the Corn Belt is the second most
populated region, ranking only behind the Northeast.
At 4.6 acres per person, the population density almost matches that of the Northeast. A
very small percentage of the region is in public lands (less than 4%) and the region has
the highest demand for wildlife and fishing activities in the country. The population is
concentrated in a few high-density urban areas along
the Great Lakes and Mississippi River. Major Land Uses
Perpent of U.S. Total
16%
7%
22%
4%
3%
15%
4%
2%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urbanArans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Urban/Trans. (6.9%)
Range/Pasture (15.6%)
Other Fad. (0.2%)
Forest (17.4%)
Mirex Cover (3.0%)
Cropland (56.9%)
10
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THE LAKE STATES
The Lake States region is
composed of Michigan, Wisconsin, and
Minnesota. Forests, dominated by low-
quality, slow-growing species, account
for 42% of land cover in the region.
These forests are concentrated in the
northern tier of the region and in the
northern part of lower Michigan. The
forests of the Lake States have become
increasingly valuable because
technologies have opened new markets
for the hardwoods.
The southern portion of the region is
primarily used for crop production, with
Minnesota the leading agricultural sector in terms
of acreage (with 45% of its land in crops). Although
there have been severe reductions in dairy herds
because of the whole herd buyout program,
Wisconsin is still a leading dairy state. Of the
three Lake States, Michigan is the most
diversified, with its large orchard industry as well
as major crop and livestock enterprises.
Percent of U.S. Total
8% of population
5% of land area
10% of cropland
7% of forests
1% of range/pasture
9% of urbanArans.
3% of minor cover
1% of other federal
About 18 million acres of wetlands are
found in these states, largely in the form of fringing systems around lakes, and
shallow marshes in the Prairie Pothole region that covers much of northern and
western Minnesota and extends into the Dakotas. Agricultural development is the
most important factor contributing to the rapid rate of
destruction of these potholes.
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (5.6%)
Range/Pasture (8.3%)
Other Fed. (0.1%)
Forest (42.0%)
Cropland (36.2%)
Minor Cover (7.8%)
11
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THE NORTHERN PLAINS
Just west of the Mississippi River, and
bordering the Lake States and Corn Belt, lies the
Northern Plains, a region consisting of North
Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas.
Cropland, mainly planted in wheat, covers
49% of the region — over a fifth of total cropland in
the United States. One major source of new
cropland over the past several decades has been the
extensive 100,000 square-mile Prairie Pothole
region wetlands, which produce fully half of the
nation's annual duck crop but have been
systematically drained and plowed. Intensive
extraction of ground water to irrigate crops in the
Sandhills and Rainwater Basin areas of Nebraska
and in Kansas are depleting the immense Ogallala
and other aquifers there, as well as drying up
wetlands.
Range and pasture account for an additional
42% of the region's acreage. Most of these lands are
in good condition and are located in the Dakotas. The
Northern Plains are virtually free of trees, having the
smallest percentage of land in forests of any region.
The Northern Plains also has only 2% of the
country's population, and a very low population
density of 37 acres per person. However, the acreage
of public land available for recreation is among
the lowest in the nation.
Kansas
Percent of U.S. Total
2% of population
9% of land area
22% of cropland
1% of forests
11 % of range/pasture
6% of urban/trans.
3% of minor cover
1% of other federal
Major Land Uses
Other Land (4.8%)
Cropland (49.3%)
Range/Pasure (43.4%)
Urban/Trans. (2.5%)
12
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THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
Texas and Oklahoma make up the
Southern Plains. Two-thirds of the land
is in range and pasture uses (15% of the
nation's total.) The long history of cattle
ranching has taken its toll on the quality
of range ecosystems: only 15% of
Texas's vast rangeland (over half
of the land in the state) is
considered in good or excellent
shape today, the lowest percentage
in the country.
Scarcely 21% of the region is
cropland, characterized by high use
of irrigation, ground water overdraft, and
high wind erosion rates. One of the largest
concentrations of cotton fields in the nation occurs in
Texas, though the productivity rates are low
compared to rates in the Delta, Mountain, or
Pacific states.
Due to the low precipitation rates and low
elevations, forests cover only 14% of the region.
Most of these forests are concentrated in east
Texas.
Although the Southern Plains support a low
population density, Texas has been experiencing
rapid growth in a number of counties
surrounding its largest cities, increasing
competition for agricultural and range land,
and for water. Further, only 2% of Texas is
public recreation land, and merely 15% of its
vast coastline and barrier islands is open to
public access, posing questions about its
ability to satisfy emerging open space
demands.
Range/Pasture (60.3%)
Percent of U.S. Total
8%
9%
11%
4%
15%
11%
2%
4%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urban/trans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (3.8%)
Cropland (20.1%)
Minor Cover (1.3%)
Foresl (14.2%)
13
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THE MOUNTAIN STATES
This region is spatially the largest of the regions,
with 547 million acres — just under a quarter of the
entire nation's land area. However, the region has
only 5% of the U.S. population.
The geography of the region is
extremely varied, ranging from the cold
Northern Rockies to the Sonoran desert
ecoregion in the south. Nearly the entire
region features high mountains or arid
foothills and plains. Those areas below about
8,000 feet in elevation receive very little
rainfall, so most crops must be irrigated;
Colorado and Idaho alone irrigate a total of 12
million acres. The region relies primarily on ground
water for its water supplies.
Over 62% of the region is devoted to range and
pasture — well over a third of the total supply in the
contiguous states. Much of the range is in Nevada (79%
range) and Wyoming (76%), and about a third of the
range is in good or excellent condition. Agricultural
acreage is negligible (8% of the region), and tends to be
limited to grain and fodder production.
The region's forests provide much needed
resources, including water, timber, high quality grazing
lands and public recreation opportunities. However,
these forests only occur on a quarter of the region.
Forty-one percent of Forest Service lands are found
here. Consequently, very little timber land is owned by
the forest products industry — barely 3%.
Arizona and Utah produce most of our copper,
though on very small amounts of land. Wyoming has
become the second largest coal-producing state in the
past decade, following development of the huge
Powder River Basin field. The Mountain Region also
has the largest amount of other federal lands
(Indian reservations, military installations),
_ .... , ,,. , c Range/Pasture (62.3%)
with over 5 million acres, almost one-third or
the national total in this category.
Percent of U.S. Total
5%
24%
10%
19%
38%
9%
9%
29%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urban/trans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (1.3%)
Cropland (8.1%)
Minor Cover (2.1%)
Forest (25.4%)
Other Fed. (0.8%)
14
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THE PACIFIC REGION
The Pacific region has the most varied topography,
climate, and land use, supporting rain forests, extensive
high mountain ranges, and deserts below sea level.
Proportionately, it has less area in cropland (11%) than
any other region except the Mountain region. However,
many of the 22 million acres in agriculture are
devoted to high-valued crops (e.g., orchard fruits,
citrus, fresh vegetables) of great importance to the
nation's economy.
Forests comprise 46% of the region's land area.
This is only 13% of the nation's forest land, but
includes some of our most productive forests and most
valuable species (e.g., Port Orford cedar, redwood,
Douglas fir). Forty percent of the commercial forest
land produces over 120 cu ft/ac, mostly on Forest
Service lands (31 million acres). One-third of the region
is devoted to range and pasture uses. California is 42%
range, virtually all of which is in excellent condition as a
result of vigorous replanting. However, it has the
highest erosion rates of any rangeland in the
country.
The Pacific region is second only to the
Mountain region in terms of acreage in federal
lands in the contiguous U.S. Although less than
4% of the region is devoted to urban and
transportation uses, the population is
concentrated on the California coast around San
Francisco and Los Angeles, and in counties of the
Seattle-Tacoma and Portland metropolitan areas.
Recreational demand and growth rates for
winter and water activities are the highest in
the country, leading to perennial conflicts
among recreationists, urban
developers, and energy interests,
especially over access to river
channels and water descending from
the Sierra Range and the Colorado
Plateau.
Percent of U.S. Total
13%
9%
5%
13%
8%
10%
5%
22%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urbanArans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
. (3.7%)
Cropland (11.3%)
Minor Cover (3.1%)
Range/Pasture (33.8%)
Other Fed. (1.8%)
Forest (46.3%)
15
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THE FAR PACIFIC
Hawaii
The Far Pacific —
Alaska and Hawaii — is the
most anomalous region in the
country. It has barely 1% of the
population on 16% of the total land
area, including 27% of the federal lands. Over
half of the region is considered minor cover
elsewhere — glaciated mountains, wetlands
(estimated to cover 60% of
Alaska), including tundra and x
some double counting of wet
forest systems, and other
nonproductive lands. "*
Forestry plays a key role in the
economy of Alaska, and consists of vast stands of old-
growth softwoods along the Gulf of Alaska and in the
Panhandle. Exports to Japan of whole logs, timber
products, halibut, salmon, and other fish products,
bolster the economy. Agriculture in Alaska is of minor
importance. Hawaii supports high-valued fruit
plantations, albeit on very few acres.
Two-thirds of Alaska and a quarter of Hawaii
are classified as range, but their combined production
of livestock is very low. Urban development in Hawaii
is placing increasing pressures on the naturally moist
forest and coastal ecosystems that sustain the
tourist industry, the largest sector of the state's
economy.
Since the mid-1970s, oil
exploration and development efforts
on Alaska's North Slope tundra and
along its 33,000-mile coast have R-H*P»IU- ,.7,%,
spurred nationally prominent conflicts
over the wilderness values of federal
lands that continue unabated today.
Percent of U.S. Total
1%
16%
0.1%
16%
20%
0.4%
54%
27%
of population
of land area
of cropland
of forests
of range/pasture
of urban/trans.
of minor cover
of other federal
Major Land Uses
Urban/Trans. (0.1%)
Minor Cover (18.7%)
Cropland (0.1%)
Forest (32.8%)
Other Fed. (1.2%)
16
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CHAPTER III
ANALYSIS OF LAND USE IN INDIVIDUAL SECTORS
The regional overview presented in the previous chapter provides the reader with
a general understanding of present land-use patterns in each of the regions of the United
States. More specific information regarding present and past uses of land resources within
sectors is required to understand the dynamics within and between sectors. This includes
determining how competing demand for land has affected and presently affects overall
regional land use. Presumably, past and present uses of land resources will have some
bearing on the future.
This chapter takes each of seven land-use sectors (cropland, forests, range and
pasture, urban/transportation, recreation/open space, wetlands, and minerals) and discusses
in detail the amount of land used in the sector, as well as the nature of that land use. In
addition, the productivity of the land use and its impacts are delineated. To provide the
reader with a sense of the trends in land use in each the sector, a short historical look at
patterns of land use is provided.
While some land use sectors have a wealth of information and quantitative
indicators for describing various aspects of land use patterns (e.g., agriculture), information
on other sectors is very limited. We have attempted to uncover the most accurate numbers
available and to provide the reader with a perspective on land and its uses.
A. AGRICULTURE
1. Introduction
Over the last 50 years, the agricultural sector has changed tremendously. Yields
have increased several times over, and the amount of cropland has grown. At the same time
the number of farmers has dropped significantly. These trends began slowly in the 1920s
and 1930s, and then escalated rapidly after the Second World War. In the 1950s, the pace
of change seemed to increase exponentially as hundreds of thousands of farm families left
agriculture and migrated to urban areas.
While the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attempted to stem the tide,
fundamental economic forces prevailed. Returns to farm labor were considerably lower
than what could be earned in the urban industrial sector. In addition, farmers who
remained on the land found that they had to increase their acreage and their operations
in order to continue farming.
These trends of larger farming operations and increasing capital requirements in
agriculture have been especially evident in the past 40 years. While the number of acres
devoted to crop production is still about the same as it was in 1945, there have been
significant alterations since then. Between 1945 and 1969, increasing yields had decreased
17
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the amount of cropland needed from 354 million acres to 290 million acres. However, with
•a burgeoning demand in the 1970s, especially for farm exports to developing.and newly
developed nations, the number of acres harvested in 1981 expanded to 366 million.
Dramatic changes were also occurring in production technology. Tractors became .a
•necessity and became larger and more powerful, with 12- and 24-row planters replacing
2- and 4-row planters. Other planting and harvesting equipment also became proportionately
larger and more specialized. Thus, while the crop yield per acre quadrupled in this time
period, the productivity per farm worker increased even more.
In 1945, the United States had nearly 6 million farms with over 1.1 billion acres; in
•1982 it had 2.4 million farms with just over 1.0 billion acres. The average farm size grew
from 195 acres to 432 acres (Fedkiw, .1986). The trends in commercial production have been
even more dramatic. In 1949, less than 6% of American farmers had farm sales of over
$40,000 (1980 dollars) although they accounted for 40% of total farm sales. By 1982, nearly
30% of farmers had sales over $40,000 and 12% had sales over $100,000; the 30% of farms
with sales over $40,000 accounted for 88% of all farm sales and those farms with sales over
$100,000 accounted for 69% of all farm sales. Agriculture has come to take oh;more of a
bi-modal distribution. Many farmers have off-farm employment and are in agriculture
because they value the way of life or see farming as a hedge against reductions in off-farm
employment. A small proportion of farmers could be classified as full-time commercial
farmers who gather a large portion of their total income from agriculture. These farmers
produce the vast majority of food and fiber that enters the market. Considerable disagree-
ment exists concerning the costs and benefits of the structure of our agricultural produc-
tion system. However, there is no controversy over the fact that American agriculture
produces more with fewer people and at a lower cost to the consumer than any other nation.
The 1970s were a period of unequaled growth and prosperity in agriculture. Grain
exports increased dramatically. Overall demand for food and fiber products was greater
than supply. Therefore, millions of acres of land were converted for crop production,
causing land prices to increase rapidly. Some farmers and ranchers were becoming instant
"paper millionaires" as a result of these rising land prices. This perception of easy money
in agricultural land Ownership convinced many to invest in farming. Agriculturalists and
non-agricultural investors began acquiring land in an attempt to increase their wealth.
2. Crisis in Agriculture
In the 1980s, when real rates of interest once again became positive and exports of
agricultural products lagged, the boom in agriculture burst. Land prices fell even more
rapidly than they rose, farm income was negative in some years, and many agricultural-
ists left the sector (voluntarily or involuntarily). In 1982, the American Bank Association
began surveying rural banks concerning farm loans to determine the number of farm loans
that wer& thought to be at risk of defaulting. In 1982, the number wasthree-fourths of 1%.
By 1984,. rural bankers felt 2.6% of their farm loans were in trouble and by 1986, the
number had climbed tb 4.2%.
Federal programs were enlarged substantially beginning in 1981. Between then
and 1984^ program expenditures rose from $4 billion to $7 billion. By 1986, they escalated
18
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to $25 billion. The increasing difficulties in the farm sector have been reflected in the rising
proportion of net farm income derived from support price programs. This proportion
increased from 30% in 1984 to nearly 100% in 1986. While commodity support payments
have been substantial, they have not been disbursed uniformly throughout the country. In
1984, government payments in the Northern Plains — a region largely devoted to
commodity crops — accounted for over 67% of net farm income. By contrast, government
payments to farmers in the Southeast were only 7% of net farm income.
3. Agriculture in the 1980s
In terms of land use, the United States uses a large part of its available land area
to produce food and fiber, including livestock. Over 900 million acres of private farmland
in the United States were devoted to these productive activities, with over 400 million acres
classified as cropland. However, because of surplus productive capacity, only 328 million
acres of major crops were actually planted in 1986.
Table 2 demonstrates substantial differences between regions in terms of the
percent of total land area in cropland, and the percent of available cropland that was
actually planted in 1986. While the Mountain Region contains over 24% of all land, it had
less than 10% of the cropland and had only 8% of the acres devoted to major crops in 1986.'
On the opposite extreme, the Cornbelt has only 7% of the total land area of the United
States but accounted for over 26% of the acres planted in major crops. Over 70% of the acres
devoted to major crops were contained in three regions (Cornbelt, Lake States and
Northern Plains). Two regions (Corn Belt and Northern Plains) account for nearly 50% of
the acres planted to major crops. Crop production is heavily concentrated in the Central
and Northcentral areas of the United States. The degree of concentration of production as
well as the geographical location is highly variable among crops.
1 For purposes of this report, the term "major crops" is used to identify the 20 crops defined as
major by USDA, including corn, sorghum, oats, barley, wheat, rice, rye, soybeans, flaxseed, peanuts,
sunflower, cotton, all hay, dry edible beans and peas, Austrian winter peas, lentils, sweet potatoes,
tobacco, sugarcane and sugar beets. Six of these crops have been selected for intensive analysis in this
research. These crops are all quite land intensive and utilize a large proportion of American cropland.
These six study crops are corn, soybeans, cotton, rice, wheat, and hay.
19
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TABLE 2: Land Use in USDA Crop Production Regions
(thousands of acres)
Region
Total
Land
Area
% U.S.
Land
Area
Total
Farm-
land
% U.S.
Farm-
land
Total
Crop-
land
% U.S.
Crop-
land
111,689
123,834
123,635
92,052
164,794
122,194
194,351
211,630
547,324
204,156
369.445
2,265,105
4.9
5.5
5.5
4.1
7.3
5.4
8.6
9.3
24.2
9.0
16.3
100.0
26,249
49,971
40,896
36,033
122,303
55,885
176,031
163,680
246,101
66,366
3.281
986,797
2.7
5.1
4.1
3.7
12.4
5.7
17.8
16.6
24.9
6.7
0.3
100.0
16,290
28,391
18,910
23,882
96,861
42,416
99,987
50,811
42,727
24,686
4QQ
445,362
3.7
6.4
4.2
5.4
21.7
9.5
22.5
11.4
9.6
5.5
JL1
100.0
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Source: USDA, 1984b; U.S. Department of Commerce, 1982.
In terms of importance to the agriculture sector, because of the size of their exports
and the acreage they cover, six crops predominate. We will examine the production
patterns and geographic focus of production for these crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, rice,
cotton, and hay.
Not included among the major crops are vegetables and fruits. These crops comprise
a small share of total cropland. In 1982, vegetables, which are grown in every state, were
planted on 3.1 million acres. Fruits were planted on 4.7 million acres, most of which were
concentrated in California (2.1 million acres) and Florida (938,000 acres). Together they
accounted for only 2.1% of all cropland.
20
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FIGURE 3: Percent Cropland by State
Legend
Proportion in Cropland
0.00 to 0.15
0.15 to 0.25
0.25 to 0.50
0.50 to 0.80
Source: USDA, 1984b.
TABLE 3: Use of Cropland in USDA Crop Production Regions
(thousands of acres)
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Planted in
20 Major
Crops-1986
12,355
18,574
10,824
17,081
85,546
37,326
77,521
29,189
26,683
13,077
_20_
328,266
%of
Cropland
in Major
Crops
75.6
65.4
57.2
71.5
88.3
88.0
77.5
57.4
62.4
53.0
22.5
73.7
Planted
in 6 Study
Crops-1986
11,282
17,459
9,078
15,595
80,576
31,505
60,261
28,271
20,985
10,103
Jl
285,236
%of
Cropland
in Study
Crops
69.3
61.5
48.0
65.3
83.2
74.3
60.3
55.6
49.1
41.0
JLQ
64.0
Source: USDA, 1986c.
21
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a. Corn
Production of corn for grain or seed is concentrated in a relatively few regions. In
the 1986 crop year, over 45% of the total U.S. corn acres were found in the Corn Belt, and
these acres accounted for nearly 55% of the total bushels of corn produced. The Corn Belt,
Lake States, and Northern Plains accounted for nearly 80% of the 1986 corn acres and
nearly 90% of total bushels produced. While the Corn Belt had the highest per acre yield
(historically as well as in 1986), the other major corn production regions (Lake States and
Northern Plains) had yields similar to other regions. Perhaps the Lake States and
Northern Plains had fewer land-use opportunities than other regions and therefore
devoted more acres to corn production. In addition, these regions may be devoting a
substantial portion of their crop production to feeding livestock, thereby making corn
production economically viable even with lower yields.
Table 4:1986 Corn Acreage, Output and Yields
Regions
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Corn
Planted
(1000 ac)
4,180
5,065
1,990
700
35,200
13,100
12,930
1,470
1,309
730
Q
76,674
Corn % of
Output Corn
(1000 bu) Output
259,565 3.2
317,560 3.9
88,810 1.1
66,640 0.8
4,483,030 54.3
1,330,650 16.1
1,360,550 16.5
154,180 1.9
127,649 1.6
63,200 0.8
Q 0.0
100 8,251,834 100.0
%of
Corn
acres
5.5
6.6
2.6
0.9
45.9
17.1
16.9
1.9
1.7
1.0
Corn
Yield
bu/acre
62.1
62.7
44.6
95.2
127.4
101.6
105.2
104.9
97.5
86.6
0.0
107.6
Source: USDA, 1986c.
In 1986,5.2 million fewer acres were planted to corn in the U.S. than in 1982—a 6.3%
decrease. Planted acres declined by 3.1 million acres in the Corn Belt and by 1.7 million
acres in the Lake States. Although corn plantings increased by 455,000 acres in the Delta
States and by 190,000 acres in the Southern Plains, in absolute terms these increases were
small.
While corn plantings decreased, corn production increased slightly because of
higher average yields—from 100 bushels per acre in 1982 to 107.6 bushels per acre in 1986.
Yields continued to remain highest in the Corn Belt at 127.4 bushels per acre. However the
Corn Belt's share of total production slipped from 54.9% to 54.3%. The Lake States fell to
third in total corn production behind the North Plains in 1986.
22
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FIGURE 4: Distribution of Corn Acreage
South Plains 1.9%)
North Plains (16.J
Mountain (1.7%)
Lake States (17.1%)
Delta States (0.
Northeast (5.5%)
Appalachian (6.6%)
Pacific (1.0%)
Southeast (2.6%)
Corn Belt (45'9%>
Source: USDA, 1986c.
b. Soybeans
The Corn Belt is also the region with the greatest number of acres devoted to
soybeans—over 31 million acres in 1986. Over 51% of the acres planted with soybeans in
1986 were in the Corn Belt, with the Lake States and Northern Plains each contributing
about 10%. The Lake States and Northern Plains both produced nearly 11% of total output
but the Corn Belt produced over 60% of total output. These three regions account for over
80% of soybean production. However, in soybean production, the Southeast and Delta
regions combined for 18% of the soybean acres but only 10% of the total soybean production
due to yields which were substantially below those of other regions. Whether the continued
soybean production in those regions with low yields is the result of lower costs of production
or merely a phenomenon of lags in market shifts will be explored in a later section on
trends.
23
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TABLE 5: 1986 Soybeans Output, Acreage and Yields
Regions
Soybeans
Planted
(1000 ac)
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Source: USDA, 1986c.
%of
Bean
Acres
930
5,080
3,100
7,950
31,500
6,230
6,195
495
0
0
0
1.5
8.3
5.0
12.9
51.2
10.1
10.1
0.8
0
0
Q
61,480 100.0
Soybean
Output
(1000 bu)
25,913
128,090
47,970
151,620
1,218,645
212,320
213,305
9,170
0
0
Q
2,007,033
%of
Bean
Output
1.29
6.38
2.39
7.55
60.72
10.58
10.63
0.46
0
0
_Q
100.0
Soybean
Yield
(bus/ac)
32.6
FIGURE 5: Distribution of Soybean Acreage by Region
North Plains (10.1%
South Plains 0.8%)
Lake States (10.1%)
Delta States (12.9%)
Northeast (1.5%)
Appalachian (8.3%)
Southeast (5.0%)
Com Belt (51.2%)
Source: USDA, 1986c.
In 1982, 70.8 million acres were planted to soybeans. By 1986 that number had
fallen to 61.5 million acres, a reduction of 13.3%. Most of the reduction occurred in
Appalachia (-1.8 mil. acres), the Southeast (-3.6 mil. acres) and the Delta States (-3.3 mil.
acres). In 1982, those three regions accounted for 35% of all soybeans planted: in 1986, they
accounted for only 27.5%. In contrast the Corn Belt, Northern Plains and Lake States all
increased their shares of soybean acreage, with the Corn Belt jumping from 45% to 51%
of all soybeans planted in the U.S.
Between 1982 and 1986, total soybean production fell 8.4% or 183 million bushels.
This suggests that marginal land came out of production, since planted acres fell by 13.3%.
24
-------
Combined production fell 293 million bushels in the Appalachian Region, Southeast and
Delta States. This decrease was offset somewhat by output increases in the Corn Belt and
Southern Plains. In 1986, the Corn Belt accounted for 60.7% of total soybean production,
up from 52% in 1982. This shift in soybean production from the Southeast and Delta
regions is quite understandable when the yields and costs of production are compared. In
a 1984 study, USDA researchers found that production costs for soybeans varied by only
10%-12% higher in the Delta States and the Southeast than in the Midwest, while yields
in the Midwest were nearly double those of the other two regions.
Table 6: Variable Production Costs, Yields and Net Revenue
for Soybean Production in 3 Regions
Cost
Category Midwest Mid south Southeast
Labor 14.04 15.64 15.07
Fuel/repair 17.97 23.02 20.60
Machinery 36.40 36.97 33.04
Fertilizer 6.32 11.28 14.89
Pesticides 17.99 16.97 18.78
Seed 8.56 7.20 6.14
Cultivation 5.70 7.99 6.96
Total variable
Costs ($/acre) 106.95 119.06 115.49
Yield (bu/acre) 34.7 19.20 6.60
Gross Revenue @$7.50/bu $260 $144 $124
Gross Revenue @$5.00/bu $174 $96 $83
Source: Duffy and Hutton, 1984.
c. Rice
Rice is grown in only four regions and only three of those devote substantial acreage
to rice production. The Delta States region contains the largest proportion of the acres
devoted to rice production—over 1.5 million acres. While this region contained 70% of the
rice acres in 1986, it produced only 63% of total output. Table 7 shows that the Pacific region
yielded the largest output with only 15% of the acres.
25
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TABLE 7: 1986 Rice Acreage, Output and Yields
Regions
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Source: USDA, 1986c.
Rice
Planted
(1000 ac)
0
0
0
1,680
68
0
0
290
0
363
0
2,401
%of
Rice
Acres
70.0
2.8
12.1
15.1
Q
100.0
Rice
Output
(1000 cwt)
85,192
3,434
18,063
27,727
0
134,416
%of
Rice
Output
63.4
2.6
13.4
20.6
Q_
100.0
Rice
Yield
(cwt/ac)
44.1
45.4
49.2
70.0
Q
49.0
Figure 6: Distribution of Rice Acreage by Region
South Plains (12.1%) Corn Belt (2.8%)
Pacific (15.1%)
Delta States (70.0%)
Source: USDA, 1986c.
d. Cotton
While cotton has traditionally been viewed as a crop grown in the Southeast and
Delta regions, in 1986, over 52% of the cotton acreage was in the Southern Plains,
principally Texas. The Southeast and Delta regions planted only 28% of the U.S. cotton
acres. This domination of cotton production by the Southern Plains region occurred in spite
of rather substantial productivity differences: the Southern Plains produced an average of
only 0.5 bales per acre, while the Southeast and Delta regions produced over 1 bale per acre.
26
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More dramatic were yields of over 2 bales per acre in the Mountain and Pacific regions.
Although the Southern Plains accounted for over one-half of the cotton acres, they
produced only 28% of the bales of cotton; and while the Pacific region only had 10% of the
cotton acreage, it produced 23% of the total U.S. output. With productivity differences so
large, there may be possibilities for shifts in the use of land in these regions.
Between 1982 and 1986, acres planted to cotton fell 11.3%, from 11.3 million acres
to 10 million acres. Cotton planted in Appalachia, the Southeast and Delta States
increased by 270,000 acres. This increase was more than offset by decreases in the
Southern Plains, Mountain and Pacific regions. The most notable change occurred in the
Southern Plains, where acres planted to cotton fell by over 1 million acres.
TABLE 8: 1986 Cotton Acreage, Output and Yields
Regions
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Cotton
Planted
(1000 ac)
0
423
678
2,090
178
0
1
5,276
397
1,020
%of
Cotton
Acres
4.2
6.7
20.8
1.8
52.4
3.9
10.1
10,064
100.0
Cotton
Output
(1000 ba)
512
650
2,485
197
1
2,782
908
2,250
9,785
%of
Cotton
Output
5.2
6.6
25.4
2.0
28.4
9.3
23.0
1000
Cotton
Yield
(Bales/ac)
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.5
2.3
2.2
LO
Source: USDA, 1986c.
Cotton production fell by 18.5% from 1982 to 1986. Output declined by about 25%
in the Southeast (despite an increase in acres planted), Mountain, and Pacific regions, and
20% in the Delta States. It decreased by only 7.6% in the Southern Plains, the largest
producing region. On average, cotton yields fell slightly from 1.1 bales per acre to 1 bale
per acre.
27
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FIGURE 7: Distribution of Cotton Acreage
Appalachian (4.2%)
Southeast (6.7%)
Corn Belt (1.8%)
Pacific (0.1%)
r>^->"^'v^'%'%''>''>'vwww'jM ^ wnttttfti
South Plains (52.4%) I
Delta States
(20.8%)
Mountain (3.9%)
Source: USDA, 1986c.
e. Wheat
Wheat acreage is also highly concentrated in relatively few regions. The Southern
and Northern Plains account for nearly 60% of the 1986 wheat acres and 47% of total wheat
output. Including the Mountain and Pacific regions, those four regions account for over
80% of total acres devoted to wheat and 80% of wheat production. While the regions with
the greatest number of acres devoted to wheat (Northern and Southern Plains) do not have
the largest yields per acre, they also have fewer alternative crops, unless irrigation is used
for crops such as corn, soybeans, and cotton.
The 13.8 million acre reduction in wheat plantings from 1982 to 1986
accounts for nearly one-half of the national reduction in wheat plantings. In every region,
planted acres fell. The Northern Plains, which accounted for 36.6% of all wheat planted
in 1982, had the greatest absolute reduction—cutting back by 4 million acres or 13%. The
greatest relative reductions were in Appalachia (-42.8%), the Southeast (-44.3%) and the
Delta States (-63.3%). These three regions accounted for 29% of the reduction, despite
having only 10.9% of all wheat acreage in 1982. By 1986, they accounted for only 6.3% of
all acres planted to wheat. Wheat plantings in the Corn Belt in 1986 also declined a
dramatic 33% from 1982 plantings.
28
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TABLE 9: 1986 Wheat Acreage, Output and Yields
Regions
Wheat
Planted
(1000 ac)
%of
Wheat
Acres
Wheat
Output
(1000 bu)
%of
Wheat
Output
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Source: USDA, 1986c.
635
1,626
1,615
1,340
4,490
3,875
27,485
15,550
11,287
4,370
120
72,343
0.9
2.2
2.2
1.9
6.2
5.4
38.0
21.4
15.6
6.0
0.2
100.0
26,910
41,261
28,620
45,530
134,970
142,306
811,080
270,800
355,423
226,780
3.100
2,086,780
1.3
2.0
1.4
2.2
6.5
6.8
38.9
13.0
17.0
10.9
0.1
100.0
FIGURE 8: Distribution of Wheat Acreage
Appalachian (2.3%)
South Plains (21.5%)
/:'." i 1 :
North Plains (38.1%;
I ..-.•....•:
I
Northeast (0.9%)
Lake States (5.4%)
Delta States (1.9%)
Corn Belt (6.2%)
Pacific (6.1%)
Mouritain (15.6%)
Southeast (2.2%)
Source: USDA, 1986c.
Wheat
Yield
(Bu/ac)
The reduction in acres planted to wheat (16.1%) resulted in a 24.5% reduction in
wheat production, suggesting that marginal acres were not going out of production
(however, they may have had higher costs). Production increased in the Northeast, a minor
wheat-producing region, and decreased in all other regions. Production declines mirrored
declines in acres planted to wheat, with the largest percentage declines being in the
Southern regions of Appalachia, the Southeast and the Delta States. As a result of the
acreage reductions in other regions, the Northern Plains increased its share of wheat
production from 35.5% to 38.9%, even though acres planted was stable. The Mountain
region also increased its share of wheat production from 14.6% to 17%. For the total United
29
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States, average yields fell by 11.2% from 32.1 bushels per acre to 28.8 bushels per acre.
Yield reductions were greatest in the Delta States (-71.6%), the Southern Plains (-31.3%)
and Appalachia (-25.5%). These reductions in regions with relatively high yields, and the
drop in overall bushels per acre, suggest that the acreage going out of wheat production was
not necessarily the marginal lands or the least productive acres. Other factors which may
have influenced whether acres would shift out of wheat production are possible alternative
crops, level of production costs, as well as constraints due to machinery complements or
knowledge of particular cropping systems.
f.Hay
While hay is not a major cash crop in many regions and has no government price
support program, it was produced on over 60 million acres in 1986 (nearly 17% of the
nation's cropland acres). In some regions, such as the Northeast, hay production uses over
40% of available cropland. The Northern Plains has planted over 13 million acres in hay,
or over 17% of the region's planted acreage. The Northern Plains is also the largest
producer, with over 28 million tons produced in 1986, even though as a region it does not
have the highest yield. The Pacific region has the highest productivity with 4 tons per acre,
but hay production in this region must compete with numerous other potential crops. In
other regions, the possible alternative crops are fewer, and the feeding requirements of
livestock are of higher priority.
TABLE 10: 1986 Hay Acres Harvested, Output and Yields
Regions
Acres
Harvested
(1000 ac)
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
i
Pacific
Far Pacific
U.S. Total
Source: USDA, 1986c.
%of
Hay
Acres
8.9
8.5
2.7
2.9
14.7
13.3
21.9
8.4
12.8
5.8
0
100.0
Hay
Output
(1000 tn)
13,401
8,515
3,025
3,886
24,235
26,193
28,403
11,755
21,219
14.636
0
155,268
%of
Hay
Output
8.6
5.5
1.9
2.5
15.6
16.9
18.3
7.6
13.7
0
100.0
Hay
Yield
(tn/ac)
2.4
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.7
3.2
2.1
2.2
2.7
.IP
0
2.5
30
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4. Trends Associated with the Six Program Crops
Generally, between 1982 and 1986, acres planted to corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton,
and rice declined. Output also declined for all crops except corn. While most regions
generally lost planted acres, the Southern regions of Appalachia, the Southeast and Delta
States underwent the greatest structural changes. These regions lost 17 million planted
acres out of the 30 million planted acre loss between 1982 and 1986.2 The acres lost in the
Southern regions were the last acres planted in the boom of the 1970s and therefore were
the first to be removed in the early 1980s.
Between 1982 and 1986, substantial shifts in regional production of major crops
occurred. While total production of most major crops decreased, some regions gained
market shares while others lost. The Corn Belt, Lake States, and Northern Plains gained
in their market share (even though it was a smaller market) in corn and soybeans, while
Appalachia, the Southeast, and Delta States lost their market shares in these crops. These
same regions also lost their market shares in cotton to other regions.
The crop mix that farmers in a region use is also important in describing that
region's agriculture. Some regions, such as the Northeast, were planting the same crops
in the same proportions in 1986 as in 1982, only on fewer acres. In other regions, changes
in cropping patterns were somewhat pronounced. The regions can be grouped into four
categories according to the similarities by which their cropping patterns changed.
The Northeast, Lake States, and Northern Plains all experienced reductions in the
number of acres planted but maintained the same basic crop mix. The landscape of the
Corn Belt was much the same in 1986 as it was in 1982, except that the percentage of acres
planted to corn had fallen somewhat in favor of other major crops.
Appalachia, the Southeast and the Delta States also experienced very similar
changes in their cropping patterns. A greater percentage of their acres was planted in corn
and a lesser percentage to wheat and soybeans in 1986 than in 1982. The relative and
absolute positions of cotton in these regions increased as more cotton was planted in 1986
than in 1982.
The third group of regions with similar changes in cropping patterns consists of the
Mountain and Pacific regions. These two regions experienced small reductions in the
percentage of acres devoted to corn and somewhat large reductions in the percentage of
acres devoted to wheat.
The Southern Plains region stands alone due to changes in cropping patterns unlike
any other region. This is the only region that planted relatively more acres to wheat in
1986 than in 1982. Meanwhile, the percentage of acres planted to soybeans, rice, and other
major crops decreased.
2
1 Very minor increases in corn and cotton acreage occurred in these regions during this
period.
31
-------
Regions with similar changes in cropping patterns are similar geographically and
agriculturally. The Upper Midwest, not surprisingly, stayed with the crops it has produced
for decades The South, however, showed significant changes away from wheat and
soybeans and toward corn and cotton. The Mountain and Pacific regions appeared to be
reacting to the general trend of producing less wheat due to a depressed market.
Some of the structural transformations in the agricultural sectors are illustrated by
the shifts in production among regions and within regions, and in each region's market
share. While producers in regions which lost market shares might like to believe that an
equilibrium has now been achieved, further alteration could occur as a result of any or all
of the following:
o changes in commodity programs,
o world market conditions,
o pesticide regulations,
o water quality restrictions on agriculture,
o changing prices for agricultural inputs, and
o a shift to low input or sustainable agriculture.
5. External Impacts of Agricultural Production
For decades the American public has been concerned about the potential impacts of
agricultural production on the future productivity of farmland. In the 1930s, there was
great public fear about soil erosion severely diminishing U.S. food production. However
in recent years, increasing concern has been expressed about the environmental and
health impacts of agricultural production.
One problem generated by current agricultural practices is soil erosion. While soil
erosion does occur naturally from a combination of factors relating to physical soil
characteristics and climate, it can be exacerbated by human factors relating to the crop
planted, tilling practices used, and whether soil conservation practices, such as terraces
and grassed waterways, are used.
Of the nation's nearly 1 billion acres of private agricultural land (cropland, pasture/
range and forest), about 16% is eroding at a rate greater than T (T stands for tolerance level,
that rate of soil loss above which sustained economic production is not assured) (USDA,
1987). However, that land is not uniformly spread across the nation or across land uses.
While only 6% of the private forest land is eroding above T, over 40% of the cropland is
eroding above T and about 23% of the nation's cropland is eroding at over 2T. Estimates
of the overall national loss in productivity range from 5% to 20% over the next 100 years.
Yet, a recent USDA publication estimates that 100 years of sheet and rill erosion will
reduce productivity by only 1.9% nationally (RCA Draft, 1987). Considering the present
surpluses of agricultural commodities, the idled acres within government set-aside
programs and future technological enhancements, productivity does not appear to be an
issue in the aggregate. Some individual farmers and local areas may experience serious
productivity declines and resulting economic hardships, however.
32
-------
a. Damage to Human Health and the Environment
Wind and rain carry a significant portion of topsoil into the nation's waterways, and
they also are responsible for transporting pesticides and fertilizers. These pollutants can
kill aquatic populations, cause the banning of recreational activities, harm human health
and raise the costs of water for municipal and industrial use.
In 1982, the United States used over 825 million pounds of pesticides (Resources
for the Future, 1987). About 25% of this total was used for industrial and residential
purposes, and the rest went to agricultural production. The regions using the most
pesticides for agricultural purposes are those regions with the most cropland, namely the
Corn Belt (33%), the Lake States (12%) and the Northern Plains (11%). The highest
application rates, however, are in the Southeast and Delta States, where the long, warm
growing season requires larger doses of pesticides. The use of pesticides correlates well
with the production of the study crops since over one-half of all pesticides are used on corn
and soybeans. Table 11 shows the rate of pesticide use in 1982 on 13 crops in pounds of
active ingredient per year (Ibs. AI/yr.), and the average application rate per acre. Fruits,
vegetables, peanuts, potatoes and rice have very high application rates per acre yet they
are not very space extensive. Note that corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, the four largest
pesticide users, account for 72% of all agricultural pesticide use.
A recent study conducted by EPA entitled "Unfinished Business: A Comparative
Risk Assessment of Environmental Problems" examined the relative impact of various
pollutants on human health. While it found that pesticide use could pose serious threats
to applicators of approximately 100 cancer deaths annually, pesticide residues on foods
were found to pose the second greatest threat to human health at a rate of 6,000 cancer
deaths annually. These findings suggest that agricultural pesticide applications pose
significant health concerns.
TABLE 11: Agricultural Pesticide Use and Application Rates
CROP Lbs A.I./Yr Lbs A.I./Acre/Yr
Corn 277,264,942 3.38
Soybeans 134,314,059 1.89
Fruits 38,632,631 8.13
Cotton 38,171,198 3.36
Wheat 27,333,529 0.32
Vegetables 19,183,811 6.10
Sorghum 18,996,923 1.18
Oats 18,996,923 1.29
Rice 17,041,194 5.17
Potatoes 10,575,613 7.91
Peanuts 10,155,613 7.74
All Hay 6,280,116 0.10
Barley 5,317,789 0.55
Source: Resources For the Future, 1987.
33
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TABLE 12: Pesticide Application Rates by Region
Region Lbs./Year Lbs/acre cropland/year
Northeast 32,439,946 1.89
Appalachian 46,047,330 2.03
Southeast 51,588,302 2.83
Delta States 53,921,997 2.46
Corn Belt 221,753,287 2.40
Lake States 82,432,828 1.88
Northern Plains 69,757,389 0.75
Southern Plains 31,149,464 0.69
Mountain 27,025,205 0.62
Pacific 44,874,507 1.97
Source: Resources For the Future, 1987.
b. Fertilizer
In 1986, nearly 20 million tons of fertilizer were used in the United States. Nitrogen
nposed over half of this total. As with pesticides, the regions producing major crops used
arge proportion of the fertilizers. The Corn Belt used 34% of total fertilizer and the Lake
estates and Northern Plains each used 12%.
Because of the high fertilizer use rate and the hydrogeology associated with the
above three regions, many portions of these regions are particularly vulnerable to potential
ground-water contamination problems. The Southeast region and states along the
Eastern Seaboard have been identified as having potential problems. Although these
regions use fewer tons of fertilizer and pesticides, the amount utilized have begun to create
problems for the users of the ground water resources.
5. Resource Conflicts
The draining of wetlands to create cropland and pastures has been a major force in
the expansion of American agriculture in the past two centuries. Over the past few
decades, agricultural land has been converted to respond to urban needs.
a. Conversion of Wetlands
At the time of the first settlement by Europeans, the land area now identified as the
United States had 127 to 215 million acres of wetlands. The conversion of wetlands for
agricultural uses proceeded somewhat slowly until the 1950s, but increased with the
availability of improved drainage technology. From the 1950s to the early 1970s,
approximately 550,000 acres of wetlands were being converted annually. In the past
decade, the rate has been closer to 300,000 acres per year.
34
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About 90 million acres of wetlands remain in the United States. Of this total, 83%
is privately owned. Wetlands are concentrated in a few regions of the country. The
Southeast region has nearly 20 million acres, the Lake States nearly 17 million acres and
the Delta States just over 10 million acres. These three regions account for over 61% of the
nation's wetlands.
Conversion of wetlands to other uses, primarily agricultural ones, remains a major
issue in agricultural policy. Over 5 million acres of wetlands have been classified as having
high or medium potential for conversion to cropland, although this estimate was made
prior to the Food Security Act of 1985 (FSA85), which included a "Swampbuster" provision
to control wetlands loss (USDA, 1984). Some agricultural groups have criticized the
proposed regulations as overly damaging to farm production, yet some environmental
groups held that they do not offer adequate protection for the nation's wetlands. Whatever
rules are finally adopted, their enforcement derives from the ability of USDA to deny
participation in commodity support programs. However, many politicians, from both sides
of the aisle, as well as their constituents would like to see the federal government reduce
its role in price supports and other commodity programs. If these market-oriented policies
are enacted, the incentives offered for non-conversion of wetlands will be substantially
reduced.
b. Conversion of Agricultural Land
According to the National Agricultural Lands Study, between 1967 and 1977 over
2 million acres of agricultural land were converted to urban uses each year. The
agricultural land converted to urban uses is most likely to be cropland, since the more
productive lands are often near areas of human settlement. However, the rate of
conversion has slackened in the 1980s due to the slower rate of population growth and
changing settlement patterns among regions in the country. While the conversion of
agricultural land may be of concern for a variety of reasons, the ability of the United States
to feed itself does not appear to be in jeopardy.
6. Recent Trends in the Agricultural Sector (1982-1986)
As suggested above, agriculture is undergoing a massive transformation. This
transformation affects the type of crops grown, where they are grown and by whom they
are produced. As a result of low crop prices and government program set-aside provisions,
we are planting fewer acres of cropland now than at any time in the past decade or more.
From 1982 to 1986, there was an 8% reduction in the number of acres planted. These crop
acreage reductions were most pronounced in the Southeast (31% fewer planted acres), the
Delta States (22% fewer) and the Appalachian region (14% fewer acres). These three
regions accounted for 12.8 million acres of the 30 million fewer planted acres or 42.6% of
the reduction. This regional imbalance is more understandable if one realizes these are
the same regions where a great deal of land went into cropland in the boom years (mid to
late 1970s).
35
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TABLE 13: Percent Change in Planted Acres 1982-86
For Selected Crops
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Planted '
% Change
in Acres
-6.4
-14.5
-31.1
-22.1
-3.4
-5.7
3 -3.9
3 -18.6
-1.5
' -8.8
-5.3
-8.5
Jo Change % Change % Change
6 Study Corn Soybeans
Crops
-5.2
-13.7
-34.6
-26.7
-6.1
-5.4
-4.2
-6.6
-5.8
-12.1
0.0
-9.0
-9.3
-2.1
-2.7
185.7
-8.1
-11.8
-0.5
14.8
-13.5
-13.1
0.0
-6.3
-7.9
-26.5
-53.9
-29.0
-1.0
-5.0
15.5
-61.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-13.3
% Change
Cotton
0
27.80
20.34
3.72
15.58
0.00
140.00
-16.24
-34.04
-26.09
0.00
-11.30
% Change
Rice
% Change
Wheat
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Far Pacific
Total U.S
Source: USDA, 1982a; USDA, 1986c.
Change
Hay
0.0
0.0
0.0
-23.6
-15.0
0.0
0.0
-39.0
0.0
-32.8
0.0
-27.1
-1.4
-42.8
-44.3
-63.3
-33.9
-3.6
-13.0
-4.3
-7.5
-19.1
0.0
-16.1
-1.9
5.9
3.1
-7.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
11.5
0.4
8.4
0.0
4.1
36
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B. FORESTS
1. Introduction
At the time of original settlement of the continent, forests covered 850 million acres
in the contiguous 48 states (Fedkiw, 1986). By 1920, they had been reduced to 567 million
acres, close to the all-time low. By 1977, the forested acres had increased to 615 million.
Most of the initial reduction in forest acreage resulted from clearing land for cultivation.
This conversion to cropland and subsequent regrowth largely occurred east of the
Mississippi River. Figure 9 depicts the region's share of all forests.
FIGURE 9: Percent of Forest Cover, by Region, 1977
Legend
Proportion in Forestland
0.01 to 0.1
0.11 to 0.3
0.31 to 0.5
0.5 to 0.99
Source: USFS, 1982.
Industrial forestry did not begin in earnest until the latter half of the nineteenth
century. It began in Maine and moved to New York, Pennsylvania, out to the Lake States,
then down South and finally out to the West Coast by 1920. Serious harvesting of the
national forests in the Pacific region did not begin until World War II, and harvesting in
the national forests of Alaska is only a very recent phenomenon.
In 1800, sawtimber volume was estimated to have been 7.5 trillion board feet (bd.
ft.). (Commercial sawtimber volume is the net volume of the sawlog portion of live
sawtimber trees of at least 9 inches for softwoods and 11 inches for hardwoods in diameter
at breast height.) Virtually all of it was old-growth timber (virgin forest), often several
hundred years old. In 1952, the standing sawtimber volume was down to 2.3 trillion bd
ft., but by 1977, it had increased to almost 2.4 trillion bd. ft.
37
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2. Historical Perspective
Prior to 1845, most of the sawlogs used for lumber and larger timbers came from
the farm-owned woodlands that were being progressively cleared for farming (Fedkiw,
1986). Numerous independent sawmills processed these trees for local markets. The shift
to industrial forestry was gradual, but by 1920, the lumber industry had expanded to all
of the major lumber regions of the nation. Maine was the leading lumbering state until
1839 when it was succeeded by New York. In 1860, Pennsylvania became the leading
lumber producer. Michigan took the lead in 1870 and by 1879 Lake State production
surpassed that of the Northeast. By 1889, Lake State output had reached its peak at 10
billion bd. ft., 37% of the total national output (Fedkiw, 1986). Throughout the 19th
century, the North's white pine was the preferred construction species.
In 1899, Southern lumber output rose above 11 billion bd. ft., as output in the Lake
States declined. By 1910, production in the South had risen to 20 billion board feet, or 44%
of national output. From there it declined as the old-growth timber was depleted, and was
down to 11 billion bd. ft. again by 1920. Simultaneously, as Lake State production declined
after the turn of the century, Midwestern lumbermen shifted their operations to the West
Coast. By 1920, the West Coast was producing 10 billion bd. ft. Production in the Rocky
Mountains remained below 2 billion bd. ft. (Fedkiw, 1986).
The forested area of the U.S. increased by 6%, or 35 million acres, between 1920 and
1945. The increase resulted from natural regeneration of cropland and pastureland
abandoned during the Great Depression, primarily east of the prairies. Some of this
increase was also the result of improved measurement.
While the forested acreage increased, lumber use decreased until the start of World
War II. Some of this decrease was the result of the Depression-induced drop in demand
for lumber products, but it was also a response to a steady rise in lumber prices. Between
1920 and 1945, the price index for all lumber products doubled. These price increases were
the result of lagging productivity in lumbering—a declining trend in the size and quality
of timber and the increased distance between timber stands and markets (Fedkiw, 1986).
Between 1945 and 1953, pulp companies that could use small timber having short
rotations of 25 to 35 years increased their holdings by 8.5 million acres. From 1935 to 1945,
the pulpwood harvest rose from 6 million cords to 14 million cords, and by 1952 it was at
25 million cords. Over 70% of the pulp industry growth was in the South, and over 90%
of this was based on use of southern pine for pulpwood (Fedkiw, 1986). Prior to the
adaptation of the Kraft sulfate process in the 1930s, these species were considered
unsuitable for papermaking (OTA, 1983).
National forests provided a relatively minor part of the national timber supply in the
1920s and 1930s. Federal timber lands were relatively less accessible than private lands.
As World War II stimulated demand, national forest timber sales rose to 3 billion bd. ft.
per year in the 1940s and to 10 billion bd. ft. per year after 1957. Forest industry lands were
concentrated in the commercially valuable softwood timber types that provided the bulk
of the nation's timber supplies. Over half of the industry lands were located in the South,
38
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and the balance was equally divided between the North and the West. A large proportion
of the annual sawtimber harvest came from these lands. In 1952, they provided 40% of the
softwood harvest and 12% of the hardwood output. Private nonindustrial lands are largely
a phenomenon of the North and South; only 8.4% are in the West. In 1952, they provided
39% of the softwood cut, about the same as the industry lands, and 82% of the hardwood
cut. Non-federal public lands accounted for only 6% of the softwood harvest and 3% of the
hardwood harvest in 1952 (Fedkiw, 1986).
Forest acreage increased somewhat as cropland continued to decline in response to
low agricultural prices in the 1950s and early 1960s. Between the late 1960s and the early
1980s, the trend reversed itself as crop production rose again in response to the rapid
growth in export demand. The net decline in forest land between 1940 and 1982 was 6%
or 35 million acres. However, the decline in commercial forest land was only half as great,
17 million acres (Fedkiw, 1986). In 1977, commercial forests totaled 470 million acres,
about 76% of total forest land (USFS, 1982).
After World War II, forest industry lands increased by 9 million acres mainly in the
North and South, where regenerated forest provided the most rapid growth. Most of this
acreage came from nonindustry private woodlands. Total public commercial timberland
declined as well during the post-war period from 144 to 136 million acres. Three-quarters
of this decline occurred in the national forests, largely as a result of shifts of land into the
Wilderness Area System (Fedkiw, 1986).
The current inventory of sawtimber is about one-third of the original volume at the
time of settlement. About one-half of the decline was the result of land clearing for farming
and other uses. The remaining decline occurred on land where the old growth was
harvested, left in forest use and regenerated to younger growing forests.
In 1976, the annual growth of softwood growing stock was 12.3 billion cubic feet (cu.
ft.), 23% greater than the 10.0 billion cubic-foot harvest. Nationally, growth exceeds
removals on national forests, non-federal public ownerships, and on nonindustry private
ownerships. Only on the Western forest industry land does harvest exceed growth. This
has been primarily due to the rapid harvest of remaining old-growth inventories on these
lands. Softwood growth has been greater than annual harvests on industry lands in the
North and South (Fedkiw, 1986). Hardwood growing stock growth in 1976 was 9.4 billion
cu. ft., more than twice the 4.2 billion cu. ft. harvest. Since 1963 there has been a significant
improvement in hardwood log and tree quality. Apparently as a result of this improvement,
hardwood log, lumber, and plywood exports increased 3.4 times between the early 1960s
and 1980s (Fedkiw, 1986).
3. The Regional Picture
The most recent data available on U.S. forests were collected in 1977, although some
of them actually date back to 1965. Nonetheless, the data should suffice for giving a picture
of the distribution and composition of the 737 million acres of forestland in the United
States, 32.5% of its land area. In forestry, nothing changes rapidly, except when wildfires
break out.
39
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Although Alaska has played only a small role in U.S. forestry historically, the stands
of old-growth conifers along its coast make it a major part of the current and future U.S.
forest resource. Consequently, the Far Pacific region with its 121 million acres of forest is
included in this chapter.
Table 14 delineates the regional distribution of total forest and commercial forest
acres in the United States. According to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), forests consist of
lands that are stocked at least 10% by trees, and commercial forests consist of lands
producing or capable of producing 20 cu. ft. of industrial wood per acre per year in natural
stands.
All regions in the United States have some forest cover, although relatively few
forests cover the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, and the Corn Belt. Conversely, the
Mountain and Far Pacific regions together account for 35% of total U.S. forestland. The
large amount of forest land in these two regions is not so much a function of the density of
tree cover, but rather the relatively large size of the regions. In fact, about half the forest
acreage in these regions cannot support 2,0 cu. ft. per acre timber growth. Many of these
forests are in protected areas (e.g., parks, national recreation areas) where timber
production is generally not permitted.
Most commercial forest acreage is located in the Eastern United States. The regions
along the Atlantic Coast account for 44% of commercial forest acreage. The Lake and Delta
States account for an additional 20% of commercial forest acreage.
The distribution of the nation's standing sawtimber is noted in Table 15. Although
the Pacific region has only 12% of the nation's commercial forest acreage, it holds 40% of
the nation's sawtimber; the Mountain region, also with 12% of the commercial forest
acreage, has 15% of the sawtimber inventory; and the Far Pacific, with 3% of the
commercial forest acres, has 7% of the inventory. These are the regions that still contain
old-growth timber stands. Forests elsewhere are regenerated second-growth and third-
growth stands.
40
-------
TABLE 14: Forest Acreage Statistics
(thousands of acres)
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Total
Forest
Acres
71,479
73,451
75,906
49,555
28,337
50,887
4,497
31,793
136,380
93.143
615,428
121.131
736,559
Source: USFS, 1982.
Region's
Share of
Total
Forest
10
10
10
7
4
7
1
4
19
Commercial Region's % of
Forest Share of Forest
Acres Commercial that is
Forest Commercial
65,915
71,706
73,706
49,238
27,285
46,951
3,848
16,836
56,521
58.436
14
15
15
10
6
10
1
3
12
92
98
98
99
96
92
86
53
41
84
100
470,388
12.098
482,486
97
_3
100
76
66
Virtually all commercially desirable tree species are softwoods or conifers. The
exceptions are certain hardwood species prized for furniture making and related purposes,
such as walnut, and some maple and oak species. These are very slow-growing species, and
only large specimens are marketable. Consequently, commercial regeneration of these
species is not a profitable proposition. The fast-growing hardwoods, such as the poplars
and aspens, have traditionally been considered weed species with little market value.
However, this has been changing with development of composition products made of wood
chips. The most profitable species continue to be softwoods. Consequently, they are the
focus of most commercial forest management activities.
41
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TABLE 15: Sawtimber Volume, Removals, and Growth
(thousands of board feet)
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
North Plains
South Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Region
1977
Volume
148,532
220,753
222,711
173,028
51,091
96,845
10,293
56,091
384,554
1.025.137
2,389,035
189.905
2,578,940
1976
Growth
5,342
10,788
14,532
10,800
1,690
4,585
332
3,450
6,424
16.201
74,144
477
74,621
% of Sawtimber that is
Grown Removed Softwood
Northeast 3.6
Appalachian 4.9
Southeast 6.5
Delta States 6.2
Corn Belt 3.3
Lake States 4.7
North Plains 3.2
South Plains 6.2
Mountain 1.7
Pacific Lfi
Contiguous U.S. 3.1
Far Pacific 0.3
Total U.S. 2.9
Source: USFS, 1982.
2.4
2.7
4.5
5.2
3.2
2.1
2.0
4.8
1.2
2A
2.7
QA
2.5
39
28
64
58
4
32
60
71
97
_2£
75
21
77
1976
Removals
3,580
5,938
10,113
8,964
1,649
2,031
210
2,682
4,725
24.577
64,469
708
65,177
» of Total Growth that is
Removed Softwood
67
55
70
83
98
44
63
78
74
152
87
41
34
76
67
5
32
57
75
96
.21
67
87
67
As Table 15 indicates, virtually all of the sawtimber inventory in the Far Pacific,
Pacific, and Mountain regions is softwood. In the Southeast, 64% of the sawtimber
inventory consists of softwoods, and 68% in the Delta States. Of the major forest regions,
the Northeast and Appalachia have the least softwood, 39% and 28%, respectively. This
same ordinal ranking appears when one considers softwood growth as a percent of total
growth. The significantly higher proportion of softwood growth than the proportion of
softwood inventories for the Southeast, Delta States and Appalachian regions indicates
that softwood inventories of these regions will increase over time.
42
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Looking at sawtimber growth as a percent of sawtimber inventory, it is evident that
forest inventories are growing most rapidly in the Southeast, the Delta States, and the
Southern Plains. These regions are followed in relative growth by the Appalachian region
and the Lake States. Collectively, these are the regions where the forest products industry
has concentrated most of its reforestation investment in recent years. Table 15 also shows
that the forest industry has been focusing its harvesting activities in the Pacific region, the
Southeast, and the Delta States. These three regions account for 67% of the national
harvest of 65.2 billion bd. ft.
Are we disinvesting in our forest inventory? Not as a nation. Looking at total
removals as a percent of total growth in Table 15, we can see that nationally, removals are
87% of growth. However, in the Pacific and Far Pacific regions, we are disinvesting in, or
mining, our forest resources. Conversely, net inventory growth is highest in the Lake
States and Appalachia.
While this forest management may provide profits and steady employment, it
forfeits future benefits related to recreation, wildlife habitat, and flood and erosion control.
In addition, old-growth timber, which is the primary object of harvesting in these regions,
is considered by many to have aesthetic, scenic, or existence values in and of itself.
Evidence of changes in the availability of these kinds of benefits is not available for
the most part. However, erosion data are available for forest lands in the contiguous
United States for 1977 and 1982. Looking at Table 16, it is evident that the tons per acre
of soil lost to sheet and rill erosion in forest lands decreased in all 10 contiguous regions
over the five-year period, except in the Pacific region, where it increased by 96.3%.
Pesticide use in forestry is also a subject of concern. Although data on forest
pesticide use are quite spotty, about 2 million acres of commercial forest are treated each
year, or about 0.4% of the commercial forest acreage. Approximately 1.1 million acres are
sprayed with insecticides to control gypsy moths and spruce budworms (EPA, 1977).
Almost all of this insecticide use takes place in the Northeast, and a small amount takes
place in the Lake States.
In 1985, about 942,000 acres of forest were treated with herbicides for site
preparation, before replanting and to suppress subsequent competing vegetation (EPA,
1977). Over half of the forest acres treated with herbicides were in the South (the
Appalachian region, the Southeast, the Delta States and the Southern Plains). Most of the
remaining forest herbicide was used in the Pacific and northern Mountain states. Almost
two-thirds of all herbicide use was on land maintained by the forest products industry;
another 20% was on other private lands.
43
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TABLE 16: Forest Erosion Statistics*
Region 1977 1982 1977-1982
tons/acre tons/acre % change
Northeast 0.51 0.24 -52.9
Appalachian 1.63 0.68 -58.3
Southeast 0.40 0.30 -25.0
Delta States 1.40 0.30 -75.7
Corn Belt 3.14 0.98 -68.8
Lake States 0.56 0.16 -71.0
Northern Plains 2.41 0.80 -66.8
Southern Plains 0.78 0.74 -5.1
Mountain 2.18 1.61 -26.1
Pacific 1.37 2.69 +96.3
*No Far Pacific data are available.
Source: USDA, 1982b; USDA, 1984b.
The ownership mix of forests is indicative of the opportunities for and constraints
on policies affecting the management of forestland. Table 17 describes the proportion of
the commercial forests in each region owned by the public, by the forest industry, and by
other private entities (farmers and other individuals) in 1977. Forest industry lands are
defined to be those lands owned by companies or individuals operating wood processing
mills in the area.
For the nation as a whole, 28% of commercial forests are owned by the public, 14%
are owned by the forest industry, and 58% are owned by other private entities. In contrast,
virtually all of the commercial forests in the Far Pacific are in the public domain, as are
the vast majority of commercial forests in the Mountain States. Public ownership accounts
for a little over half of commercial forests in the Pacific. The forest products industry's
ownership of commercial forests is no higher than 28% in any region. It owns the greatest
share of forestlands in the three Southern regions. Other private ownership is highest in
all of the three regions along the Atlantic coast.
The very high proportion of commercial forest land in other private ownership
nationally (58%), and in timber-producing regions of the East (Northeast, 71%; Appalachian
region, 82%) and South (Southeast, 71%; Delta States, 67%) presents problems for efficient
forest management for timber production. These holdings frequently are so small and
dispersed that investment in restocking and release of softwoods is unprofitable without
federal or state subsidy programs. The forest products industry does enter into long-term
leases permitting efficient management where it can assemble a number oflarge contiguous
holdings. This tends to be less of a problem for high-value hardwoods that have a low
density per acre, and that take a long time to reach maturity. Consequently, they tend not
to be amenable to large-scale management and can be economically harvested on an
individual basis.
44
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TABLE 17: Forest Ownership Statistics
Region % Public
Northeast 11
Appalachian 10
Southeast 8
Delta States 11
Corn Belt 10
Lake States 39
Northern Plains 35
Southern Plains 8
Mountain 75
Pacific 56
Contiguous U.S. 26
Far Pacific 24
Total U.S. 28
Source: USFS, 1982.
% Industrial
18
8
22
22
2
9
0
28
4
21
15
_Q
14
% Other Private
71
82
71
67
88
52
65
64
22
22
59
_S
58
Small private holdings do discourage clear cutting and use of herbicides, making
them very productive as wildlife habitat. However, because access is usually severely
restricted, they have limited utility for public recreation, except for fee-access hunting.
4. Trends
More recent data on forest ownership do not exist for the entire country. However,
1985 data do exist for several states: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia,
Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,
Virginia, and Washington. From 1977 to 1985, the forest products industry's ownership
of forest land increased by almost 5 million acres in the Southeast and Delta States, and
by 138,000 acres in the Southern Plains. Industrial ownership has also increased in the
Appalachian states for which 1985 data exist—Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
This increase has largely been at the expense of other private holdings.
In contrast, forest industry ownership is down by almost 4 million acres in
California and Washington over the same period. Preliminary data for Oregon reveal a
similar trend. It appears that the forest products industry is continuing to shift investment
from the Pacific to the Southeastern and Delta regions, but apparently only after first
harvesting available old-growth timber. These states have laws requiring reforestation
after harvesting so that Western forest industry ownerships seem to be passing to smaller
forest products firms and other private owners. The giants of the industry seem to be
putting most of their capital investment in mills located in the Southeast, Delta States, and
to a lesser extent the Appalachian region and buying a portfolio of forestland holdings to
keep these mills supplied with a constant flow of timber. Note that closing mills tends to
reduce forest industry and increase other private ownership in the surrounding area, and
conversely, for opening new mills. The longer rotation of the Northwest conifer species
45
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relative to the Southern species, stronger demand for pulp and chip products, environmental
activism, and government regulation, particularly at the state level, all seem to have made
the Pacific region less appealing for investment by the forest products industry.
A series of successful civil suits against the USFS and BLM for violating the
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) has virtually stopped all use of pesticides on
public forests in the West. Undoubtedly, this is inhibiting the regeneration of commercial
species in these publicly owned forests.
The period 1980-82 saw a massive recession in the forest products industry.
Production fell by 40%. In contrast to pulp and paper products, which are cyclical in nature,
building materials, which account for over half of the industry's output, are inextricably
tied to residential construction. Housing starts plummeted with the abrupt end of inflation
and increase in real interest rates. However, by 1986 the industry had fully recovered, and
saw mills in the Pacific Northwest set record production levels. Southern mills have been
setting production records from 1983 onward. Interestingly enough, the record Pacific
output is coming from 10% fewer mills and a correspondingly smaller work force. To
survive, the industry extensively modernized its remaining mills in the region. Nationwide
investment in tree planting has been increasing. In 1985, trees were planted on 2.7 million
acres. This compares with plantings on 1.9 million acres in 1976 and 0.5 million acres in
both 1940 and 1950.
Perhaps as more of the nation's supply of sawtimber can be met from private
ownerships in the East and South, there will be correspondingly less pressure for
commercial harvests from public forests in the West. This could provide public land
managers with greater latitude in satisfying the demands for other uses of these forests.
C. RANGE AND PASTURE
1. Introduction
Range is land that is capable of producing forage in the form of grasses or shrubs.
It includes native prairie grasses, desert areas of sparse sage and pinyon pine, and grassy
areas within forests. Rangeland discussed in this report does not include forested range to
avoid double-counting with the forest sector.
Nearly all rangeland in the United States is located in arid and semi-arid climates
west of the Mississippi River, where livestock grazing constitutes the bestland use (USDA,
1986b). An additional small quantity of range is located in Florida and Arkansas. Because
dry climatic conditions preclude many of the more intensive management practices, much
of the plant material is native vegetation. Occasionally, non-native forage is planted to
supplement native species, and pesticides are applied to control poisonous plants, competing
vegetation, or forage-eating insects as well as mammals such as coyotes and prairie dogs.
Pasture is similar to range in that it consists of grassy forages and is used for
livestock grazing. For this report, pasture is denned to exclude cropland pasture, a form
46
-------
of cropland that is reseeded and used for pasture on occasion (USDA, 1986b). Therefore,
cropland pasture is covered in the agricultural sector report. Figure 10 depicts the percent
of each region in range and pasture cover.
FIGURE 10: Percent of Range and Pasture in Each Region
Legend
Proportion in Cropland
0.00 to 0.09
0.10 toO. 19
0.20 to 0.49
0.50 to 0.80
Source: DOI, 1987b; USDA, 1986b.
Pasture is generally located in the East, where the level of rainfall is higher and the
soils can support a wider variety of vegetation. Often, pasture is subject to a much higher
level of management than range through fencing, irrigation, fertilization, and pesticide
control.
2. Historical Perspective
Colonial settlers grazed livestock on native pasture and cleared forests. As the
population grew and agriculture expanded, pasture acreage increased. By 1867, 40 to 60
million acres were devoted to pasture (Fedkiw, 1986).
As settlers moved west, so did their cattle. By 1865, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and the
West Coast were the major cattle-producing areas. The Homestead Act of 1862 and
subsequent laws encouraged much of the Western cattle grazing by permitting the sale of
public land to homesteaders in units ranging from 160 to 640 acres (Fedkiw, 1986). (At that
time, all public land was considered to be the "public domain," unreserved land that was
available for transfer to private citizens, states, and federal agencies.)
By Eastern standards, the transferred units were large; however, settlers quickly
learned that the dry Western climate prevented most agricultural practices, except cattle
and sheep grazing. Therefore, most of this land, which by 1920 amounted to 325 million
acres, was grazed (Fedkiw, 1986).
47
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While many of the most productive lands were transferred to private use, public
land served as a useful supplement for livestock forage. Over 100 million acres of the public
domain were available for unrestricted grazing. In addition grazing was permitted on
national forest reserves, which by 1897 consisted of 38 million acres. Eventually, grazing
was permitted on over 100 million acres of forest reserves (Fedkiw, 1986).
Increased food requirements during World War I greatly heightened beef demand.
Between 1870 and 1920, the cattle herd increased from 21 million to 52 million head,
resulting in overgrazing of all rangelands (DOI, 1984; Fedkiw, 1986). Recognition of the
increasingly large numbers of grazing cattle led the newly created U.S. Forest Service
(USFS) to charge grazing fees on all national forests in 1905. Despite early protests,
stockmen began to recognize that grazing control led to better forage and cattle conditions
(Fedkiw, 1986).
As with the USFS lands, open grazing was discontinued on the public domain with
the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934. The Act transferred the remaining public
domain acreage to the newly created Grazing Service, which controlled grazing by
implementing a permit system similar to that of the USFS. In 1946, the Grazing Service
became the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) (Fedkiw, 1986; DOI, 1984).
3. The Current Situation
a. Acreage
The most recent and comprehensive national data on range and pasture acreage
were gathered by the USDA Extension Service in 1986. At that time, total range and
pasture were estimated to be about 919 million acres (USDA, 1986b). This estimate
includes 34 million acres of unforested range, which because it is administered by the
USFS, is included as forest acreage in this report. Therefore, we estimate that there are
approximately 885 million acres of pasture and range in the United States (see Table 18).
48
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TABLE 18. Acreage of Range and Pasture in the United States
(in thousands of acres)
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
North Plains
South Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Total
Range &
Pasture
Acres
8819
18477
16078
12543
25360
10094
82107
134597
334750
67999
710823
17375
884579
%of
Region
in Range
& Pasture
Cover
8
15
13
14
15
8
42
64
61
22
37
47
39
% of Total
Range &
Pasture
in Each
Region
1
2
2
1
3
1
9
15
38
_8
80
_2Q
100
%of
Total
Range
in Each
Region
0
0
1
0
0
0
10
15
44
_8
77
_22
100
%of
Total
Pasture
in Each
Region
7
14
9
9
19
7
6
18
6
_4
99
100
Source: USDA, 1986b; DOI, 1987b.
According to our estimates, range and pasture represent the major types of land use
(in descending order) in the Southern Plains, Mountain, Far Pacific, Northern Plains, and
Pacific regions. The Mountain, Far Pacific, Southern Plains, and Northern Plains regions
have the most acreage of rangeland. The Mountain region, which accounts for 44% of all
U.S. rangeland, contains all of the BLM range and most of the USFS range. While the Far
Pacific accounts for 23% of all range in the United States, very few acres are grazed because
of harsh conditions. The regions with the largest proportion of pasture are the Corn Belt,
the Southern Plains, and the Appalachian region.
b. Ownership
Most range and all pasture in the U.S. are privately owned. Table 19 delineates, by
region, the proportion of range owned privately as well as that administered by the Bureau
of Land Management. Definitive regional statistics of unforested, grazed rangeland
administered by the Forest Service do not exist; however, it is known that over 51 million
acres of USFS forested and unforested range that are "suitable" for grazing are within
USFS allotted areas in 35 states (Schlatterer, 1987b). An additional 50 million acres of
USFS range within grazing allotments may be grazed but are classified as "unsuitable" for
grazing because these lands are marginally productive and because geographical features
like rocky steep slopes preclude efficient grazing (Schlatterer, 1987a and 1987b).
49
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TABLE 19: Ownership of Range and Pasture
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
North Plains
South Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Total
Range
Acres
0
0
3804
406
168
199
73766
110417
327388
63296
579442
172735
752177
Distribution of Range
(percentage)
Private BLM
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
56
_52
70
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
44
30
.0
23
Total
Pasture
Acres*
8819
18477
12274
12138
25192
9895
8341
24181
7362
4703
131382
1021
132403
*A11 pasture land is privately owned.
Source: USDA, 1986b; DOI, 1987b.
c. Quality
Range and pasture quality are regularly assessed by the Soil Conservation Service
and BLM. The condition of rangeland is measured in four classes: excellent, good, fair, and
poor. Excellent condition means that more than 75% of the present forage is climax or at
its natural potential; good, 50 to 75%; fair, 26 to 50%; and poor, 25% or less (USDA, 1987).
Since pasture is managed more intensively than range by application of fertilizers,
pesticides, overseeding, and irrigation, managed pastures with nonnative species are
generally in better condition than native pastures (Schmude, 1987). Conversely, rangeland
is managed primarily by limiting the level of grazing. Therefore, the greater the proportion
of climax native species or similar nonnative species, the better the range condition
(Merkel, 1987). A site in good or excellent condition generally produces more forage and
provides better wildlife habitat and protection from soil erosion (Schmude, 1987).
Table 20 delineates the proportion of range in either good or excellent condition and
the proportion of pasture in good condition. (Pasture is not classified as excellent.) Roughly
37% of all range and pasture acres in the contiguous United States are in either excellent
or good condition. However, while 64% of the privately owned range acres in the Northern
Plains and Pacific region are in good or excellent condition, the Southeast and the
Southern Plains have only 9% and 19%, respectively, of their private range in good or
excellent condition. The Lake States and Northeast regions have the lowest percent (15%
and 23% respectively) of pasture in good condition, while the Southeast region has the
highest (45%).
50
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Region
TABLE 20: Condition of Rangeland and Pasture
Total Classified Acres
Percent of Classified
Acres in Good or
Excellent Condition*
Pasture Private
Range
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
North Plains
South Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
6301
8204
12221
11709
24441
4721
8320
22623
7256
4337
120132
0
0
3804
406
168
199
73737
110413
184035
33154
405914
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
128538
22479
151017
Public Pasture Private Public
Range Range Range
23 0 0
31 0 0
45 9 0
43 46 0
29 37 0
15 36 0
43 64 0
41 19 0
39 37 37
29 fi4 3£
35 39 37
*Range is rated in excellent, good, fair, and poor condition. Pasture is rated only in
good, fair, and poor condition.
Source: DOI, 1987b; USDA, 1984b.
Like the Soil Conservation Service and BLM, the USFS assesses rangeland
condition. Instead of ranking rangelands in terms of excellent, good, etc., USFS range
scientists determine the degree of similarity between the existing plant community and
the potential natural community of the site by classifying range cover into four stages of
ecological succession: natural potential, late-serai stage, mid-serai stage, and early-serai
stage. The natural potential stage represents climax vegetation, the late-serai and mid-
serai stages represent intermediate plant communities, and the early-serai stage represents
the pioneering community stage that emerges after the land is cleared.
According to a 1987 survey, 14% of suitable range was at its natural potential, and
31% was in the late-serai stage. The USFS further classified all suitable range as either
"satisfactory" or "unsatisfactory" based on the level of management occurring on the range
resource. If the rangeland forage is satisfactory, the soil is adequately protected and the
forage production and species composition are at acceptable levels or the trend in forage
production and species composition is acceptable (Schlatterer, 1987b). Range that is
suitable for grazing may not be satisfactory because it has been unproperly managed to the
extent that the forage resource is adversely affected (Schlatterer, 1987). Figure 11 depicts
the amount of range in each of the four ecological stages, in both satisfactory and
unsatisfactory condition.
51
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FIGURE 11: Ecological Status of USFS Suitable Range in
Satisfactory and Unsatisfactory Condition
!0 •
28-
26-
24-
22.
20-
18-
16-
14-
10-
6-
Natural
Potential
Late-
Serai
Mid-
Serai
Satisfactory
Early-
Serai
Unsatisfactory
Source: USFS, 1987.
Like USFS, BLM will evaluate range condition based on multiple use management
objectives in addition to reporting ecological condition (Templeton, 1987). Resource value
ratings will be reflected in the ability of a plant community to support the combination of
uses desired by the public (Templeton, 1987).
Soil erosion is another measure of range and pasture quality; since land with low
soil loss should have good vegetative cover. Table 21 indicates that total soil loss on private
range is relatively low, at 2.9 tons per acre, with wind and water erosion each contributing
about half of the total erosion (USDA, 1984b). Wind erosion in the Pacific Region, however,
contributed significantly to high soil loss rates. California had over 5 million acres of
private range with a soil loss rate of 39.5 tons per acre per year. Similar erosion statistics
are not available for public rangeland.
52
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TABLE 21: Erosion on Private Rangeland, 1982
(in tons per acre per year)
Region Total Wind Water
Northeast 000
Appalachian 000
Southeast 0.1 0 0.1
Delta States 0.7 0 0.7
Corn Belt 3.0 0 3.0
Lake States 0.5 0.0 0.5
North Plains 1.4 0.3 1.1
South Plains 1.9 0.6 1.3
Mountain 3.4 2.0 1.3
Pacific L3 4£ 2J.
Contiguous U.S. 2.9 1.5 1.4
Source: USDA, 1984b.
Erosion on pastureland is relatively low, since even poor pasture offers significant
protection by its vegetative cover from wind and water erosion. In 1982, the average soil
loss caused by wind and water was 1.3 tons per acre and the highest soil loss occurred in
Hawaii, at 3.5 tons per acre. This average loss compares with the average cropland erosion
of 7.3 tons per acre. Despite the low rates of erosion, there can be significant losses of soil.
Both Missouri and Kentucky had very high absolute soil losses of 27 million tons and 17
million tons, respectively. The state-average absolute soil loss (excluding Alaska) in 1982
was only 3.5 million tons (USDA, 1984b).
A third measure of the quality of range and pasture lands is the extent of their
natural biodiversity. As the number of plant and animal species decline, the overall
usefulness of the resource for wildlife species declines. One management tool that may
reduce the natural biodiversity of range and pasture is the application of pesticides. At
present, 35 pesticides applied on rangelands are known to seriously affect at least one
endangered species. Further study should reveal the extent to which endangered species
are affected on range.
A final measure of quality is the carrying capacity of range and pasture. Both the
BLM and USFS assess the carrying capacity of range by determining the number of animal
unit months (AUMs) that are available for range grazing. (An animal unit month is a
measure of the amount of forage necessary to support a 1,000 pound cow or equivalent for
one month.) In 1986,14 million AUMs were available for grazing on over 163 million acres
of BLM lands. In the same year, the USFS issued permits to graze up to 10 million AUMs
on over 100 million acres of range (DOI, 1987a; USFS, 1986). Similar supply data are not
available for private range and pasture. While it is generally perceived that the better
quality range is owned privately, it is difficult to generalize about the carrying capacity
across ownerships because carrying capacity varies so greatly even in small regions.
53
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4. Trends
a. Acreage
Over the last forty years, range and pasture acreage declined steadily in the
contiguous United States by more than 50 million acres. Some of this decrease probably
resulted from conversion to cropland. Despite this overall decline, Eastern pasture acreage
increased by 30% to 134 million acres between 1967 and 1977. Most of this pasture increase
came from conversion of crop and forest land (Fedkiw, 1986).
b.Use
Between the 1965-67 period and the 1974-76 period, grazed-roughage consumption
by beef cattle increased by 19% on all pasture and rangeland (USFS, 1980). During this
time, however, average grazed-roughage consumption decreased by 52% for sheep and
goats, 20% for horses and mules, 55% for dairy cattle, and 44% for feedlot cattle. The reason
for the decrease in grazed-roughage consumption by dairy cattle and feedlot cattle was that
supplemental feeding was introduced.
Because beef cattle production represents the major portion of all livestock production,
the result was a slight increase of 4 million AUMs between 1965 and 1976 (USFS, 1980).
Meanwhile, stocking levels decreased by 10% on the national forests and 37% on BLM
lands between 1945 and 1985, in response to BLM and USFS goals of improving rangeland
quality (Fedkiw, 1986).
c. Quality
Between 1945 and 1985, rangeland and pasture productivity increased. The
amount of grazing land needed for all animals grazed decreased from 13.7 acres to 10.5
acres between 1959 and 1975 (Fedkiw, 1986). Most of the productivity increase in
rangeland was due to reduced stocking levels and also to seeding of improved forages.
Pasture condition improved from using cheap fertilizers, seeding, and irrigation (Fedkiw,
1986). In addition, livestock were given supplemental feed.
In addition to productivity, rangeland scientists have measured changes in condition
over time. Figure 12 and Figure 13 demonstrate that the condition of private and BLM
rangeland has been improving steadily. The proportion of private range in excellent and
good condition increased from 20% in 1963 to roughly 39% in 1982, while the proportion
of BLM range in excellent and good condition increased from 16% in 1936 to 36% in 1984.
Similar trend data are not available for USFS range and private pasture.
Rangeland scientists also evaluate rangeland quality by estimating its "apparent
trend" in condition. If the forage composition of rangeland is moving toward a climax
species community, the apparent trend in quality of the range site is considered to be
improving. Figure 14 depicts that approximately 43% of USFS suitable range is moving
toward being composed of climax vegetation. However, only 16% of private range and 15%
of BLM range are moving towards climax condition. No apparent change is occurring on
54
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69% of private range, 64% of BLM range, and 43.5% of USFS range. On average, 14% of
range vegetation under all ownerships is moving away from the climax community. The
reason that the proportion of range moving toward natural potential is much greater on
USFS range as opposed to non-federal range and BLM range is that USFS range has been
managed longer.
FIGURE 12: Condition of Privately Owned Rangeland
45 -r
40 -
35 -
30 -
25 -
20 -
15
10 -
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Source: Merkel, 1987.
1963
1977
1982
FIGURE 13: Condition of BLM Rangeland
Excellent
E3 1936
Source: DOI, 1987b; DOI, 1984.
Good
Fair
1966
1975
Poor Other
E3 1986
55
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FIGURE 14: Apparent Trends in Rangeland Condition,
for Private, BLM, and USFS Range
Non-Federal Range
Toward Potential (15.7%)
BLM Range
Undermined (7.6%) Toward Potential (14.7%)
Away from
Potential (14.8%)
Away from
Potential (13.9%)
No Apparent Trend (69.5%)
No Apparent Trend (63.8%)
FS Range
No Apparent Trend (43.5%)
Toward Potential (43.0%)
Away from Potential (13.5%)
Source: DOI, 1987b; USFS, 1987, Merkel, 1987.
Another measure of trends in range and pasture quality is measuring soil loss over
time. According to the 1977 Natural Resources Inventory, water-based erosion rates on
privately owned range were relatively low (see Table 22). As in 1982, private pastureland
had very low total erosion rates, averaging 2.4 tons per acre. Pasture in the Appalachian
region had the highest water-based soil loss rate of 4.8 tons per acre in 1977, which dropped
by 46% by 1982. With respect to range, the Pacific region had the highest rate at 4.87 tons
per acre in 1977, which by 1982 decreased by 45% to 2.7 tons per acre. Meanwhile, water-
based erosion on range increased in the Corn Belt and Lake States. The greatest increase,
of over 700%, occurred in the Corn Belt (USDA, 1984b; USDA, 1982b).
56
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TABLE 22: Change in Water-Based Erosion on
Private Rangeland, 1977 to 1982
Region 1977 1982 * 1977-82
Northeast 0.0 0 0
Appalachian 0.0 0 0
Southeast 0.3 0.1 -60.0
Delta States 3.8 0.7 -80.1
Corn Belt 0.4 3.0 703.2
Lake States 0.3 0.5 102.7
North Plains 1.9 1.1 -42.9
South Plains 3.6 1.3 -63.2
Mountain 2.4 1.3 -44.3
Pacific 4,3 2,7 -45.3
Contiguous U.S. 2.8 1.4 -51.1
^Percentages are based on unrounded numbers.
Source: USDA, 1982b; USDA, 1984b.
With respect to wind-based erosion, data were collected for only ten states in 1977:
Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Of these ten states only New Mexico had very high erosion
rates on pasture and range. In 1977, soil losses in New Mexico amounted to an average
of 2.5 tons per acre on pasture and 6.2 tons per acre on range (USDA, 1982b). By 1982, these
rates decreased by 80% and 46%, respectively, to only 0.5 tons per acre and 3.3 tons per
acre. All other states had rates below 2.4 tons per acre (USDA, 1984b).
D. URBAN AND BUILT-UP LAND
I. Introduction
Residential and commercial development, combined with industrial growth, retail
growth and transportation, comprise the elements of urbanization. Urban areas account
for only 2% of the land base of the United States. However, the significance of this sector
is not how much land is in urban acres, but instead where the land is located, the
implications and rapacity of recent development patterns, and the likelihood that future
development will draw land out of other uses valued by society—agricultural lands,
wetlands, or open space.
In this analysis, we examine two major elements of urban areas—the distribution
of residential units and commercial office space. Residential growth is used as a proxy for
transportation right-of-ways, while commercial office space is used as a proxy for industrial
and retail growth. We were unable to identify spatial estimates for the amount of land
devoted specifically to residential and commercial development. Similarly, it was difficult
57
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to generate estimates of the amount of land in these uses because of the wide variation in
density of development across the country. However, to allow comparison with other
sectors covered in this paper, we provide spatial measures of urbanization which aggregate
the components of urban areas.
2. Recent Trends in Urbanization
The Northeast and Southeast are the most developed regions in the country, with
respectively 7% and 6% of their land base in urban areas. Urban areas sprang up rapidly
in the Northeast around the turn of the century as a result of industrialization, and in
response to transportation networks that expanded after passage of the 1953 Federal
Highway Act. But urban growth in the Southeast has been a relatively recent phenomenon.
As Table 23 indicates, in the last decade urban areas have grown more substantially in the
Southeast than in any other region of the country.
The Delta States, Appalachian region and Mountain States also expanded their
urban bases by more than 50% between 1970 and 1980 (Frey, 1983). While part of the
measured growth is explained by the Census Bureau's changes in the definition of urban
areas to include more open and vacant land, these growth rates are evidence of the recent
surge in development along the East Coast and in the Southwest. However, urban growth
in the Mountain States is less significant than it may appear by reviewing the recent urban
growth rates (see Table 23). Even with a 60% growth rate, less than 1% of the land in the
Mountain States remains urban.
FIGURE 15: Proportion of Urban/Built-up Uses by State
Legend
Proportion in Urban
and Transportation Uses
0.01 to 0.04
0.04 to 0.07
0.07 to 0.39
Source: USDA, 1984b.
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TABLE 23: Regional Land Base In Urban Areas
Regions % Urban Acres Density % Urban Growth
(1982) (pop./sq. mile) (Change in Acres)
of Urban Acres (1970-80)
(1980)
Northeast 7.3 2,949 27
Southeast 5.7 1,587 60
Corn Belt 4.2 2,554 20
Appalachia 3.6 1,703 54
Lake States 3.3 2,120 26
Southern Plains 2.5 1,660 40
Delta States 2.2 1,699 56
Pacific 2.3 3,074 29
Northern Plains <1 2,185 35
Mountain <1 1,936 60
Far Pacific <1 1,515 116
Source: USDA, 1984b; Frey, 1983.
Over the past twenty years, urban areas have sprawled outward into surrounding
rural and suburban areas. Nationally, the number of people per square mile in urban
areas has declined from 3,144 in I960, to 2,766 in 1970, and to 2,260 in 1980. From 1960
to 1970, the decline was driven by a reduction in the number of people living in central cities
and places of 2,500 or more outside the central city. From 1970 to 1980, the decline can be
traced to a continued decrease in the population living in central cities and outlying rural
areas as well as a decline in suburban area population per acre (Frey, 1983). Part of the
decline, particularly between 1960 and 1970, is due to the change in the definition of urban
areas used by the Census to included more open and vacant land in its counting of urban
areas. Part of the change is also a product of our increasingly decentralized and affluent
population (Frey, 1983).
The regions experiencing the greatest rates of urbanization are among the less
populated regions. Examples of this trend are the Southeast and Far Pacific regions. In
contrast, the four regions with urban growth rates of less than 30% (1970 -1980) are among
the most densely populated urban areas in the country (see Table 23).
3. Distribution of Commercial Space and Residential Units
a. Commercial Development
One potential reason for the growing decentralization of our urban areas is the
recent tendency to build commercial office space outside the inner city. Washington, D.C.,
which heads the list of cities offering the greatest construction of office space, is a prime
example of the trend toward suburban development. Of the 17.5 million square feet of
office space under construction there, nearly two-thirds of the activity is occurring outside
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the Central Business District (CBD). Data provided by the Office Network suggest that
except in older industrial cities like Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and Hartford, nearly
half of all new office construction is occurring outside the CBD.
In some regions of the country, this building boom has resulted in an excess of office
space. The Urban Land Institute, for example, estimates that approximately 16% to 20%
of existing office building space is empty. In response to this glut, the construction rate in
1986 declined by 17% from its all-time high of 344 million square feet in 1985 (Urban Land
Institute, 1987). While the surplus clearly exists, it is difficult to determine whether the
vacancies are, in part, a result of shifts in business investments across regions ( e.g.,
migration of businesses from the Frostbelt to the Sunbelt), or a nationwide oversupply.
Hardest hit by the glut are the Mountain States and Southern Plains, the regions
with minimal urbanization (see Table 23) but relative strong growth in urban areas in the
1970s. In contrast, in the Northeast and to a lesser extent the Corn Belt and Lake States,
the demand for office space is keeping relative pace with the growing supply. As a result,
these three regions experienced the greatest growth in new construction between 1985 and
1986 (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1987).
b. Residential Development
The most recent comprehensive snapshot of residential development was taken by
the 1980 Census of Housing, which reported 88,411,000 total housing units in the United
States. In the previous decade, 1970 -1980, residential development grew by nearly 29%,
despite economic downturns during the early part of the decade.
The largest share of the growth in housing units occurred in the Mountain States,
South, and Pacific regions. Each region experienced 35% to 42% growth in total units
(National Association of Home Builders, 1986). Two of these regions, the South (which
includes the Southeast and Appalachian regions) and Mountain States were bolstering
their urban bases during this same decade. In contrast, New England, which had a
relatively slow growth in residential units (20%) during the 1970s, was among the regions
experiencing the smallest increase in its urban base (National Association of Home
Builders, 1986). Thus, the rate of residential growth appears to be a relatively good
measure for urbanization.
4. Environmental Quality Effects of Urbanization
Externalities associated with urban growth can degrade environmental quality.
Pest controls applied directly to homes to eliminate termites (so-called structural pest
controls) and household lawn and turf applications of pesticides are potentially damaging
to both human health and environmental quality. The recent attention devoted to the
potential health effects from the misapplication of chlordane, a common termiticide, raised
the issue of the potential health threats from household pesticide use.
In 1986, roughly 81 million pounds of lawn and turf pesticides were applied in the
United States, approximately 25% of the total U.S. household and industrial uses of
60
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pesticides (EPA, 1986). Structural pesticides account for some percentage of the remaining
75% industrial uses, though specific estimates are not available.
Concomitant with urbanization is the need for waste treatment of municipal waste
water, local solid wastes, and hazardous materials. The pollution problems associated
with these activities range from disposal of waste water sludge to contaminated ground
water from municipal and industrial landfills. Health and environmental quality may be
affected by the waste management activities that support urbanization .
5. Competition With Agricultural Lands
Development has generally tended to collide with agricultural uses in fast-growing
counties (Heimlich and Anderson, 1987). But only in a few areas, or for a few specialty crops
like citrus and winter vegetables grown in South Florida, does urbanization pose a major
threat to crop production. Even though the agricultural land in question may be used to
grow crops, in many cases it is valued primarily as open space. Land that is subject to
development pressures in the newly suburban counties of Maryland, for example, does not
produce significant income from crops. Yet, residents value retaining the land as open
space and, in turn, minimizing potential environmental degradation from new construc-
tion and permanent development. Several states — Maryland, Massachusetts, New
Jersey — have created farmland preservation programs designed to support continued
farming both for crop production and to retain open space in their increasingly urban areas.
Lastly, new growth creates consumers for water resources. In the Southwest and
Southeast these new residents may become competitors, primarily with farmers, for what
is a scarce resource in those areas of the country — water. In the Mountain States, for
example, in the early 1980s, six of the eight states were mining ground water (depleting
the aquifer supplies faster than the water supply was naturally recharging the aquifer)
and using surface water at a rate greater than it was naturally being replenished (USGS,
1984; USGS, 1985.) In essence, these states, on net, were depleting their water resources
at the same time their population was growing, demanding additional water. Given a fixed
supply of water, if the population continues to grow in the Southwest, existing water uses
for irrigation may be outbid in the market.
E. OUTDOOR RECREATION AND OPEN SPACE
1. Introduction
Land used for outdoor recreation and open space is quite different from other land
uses in that its products are not usually bought and sold on the market. Land considered
in this section as recreational and open space land:
1) is relatively free of development, except for those amenities necessary for use
(e.g., roads, visitor facilities, boat ramps),
2) is capable of and available for providing desired outputs (e.g. recreational
experiences, scenic views or protection of ecosystems).
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Individuals and communities place a high value on recreational lands and open
spaces because they increase their quality of life. For example, property values are often
higher near recreational areas and open space; people spend a considerable proportion of
their leisure time outdoors; communities devote substantial tax dollars to provide quantities
of recreational and open space lands; and the majority of Americans would prefer to live
in a less densely populated environment.
For purposes of this report, we will discuss recreational land and open space as
separate concepts. While the two concepts are related, distinct differences exist. Recreation,
by definition, requires physical access to lands with the qualities being sought by the
recreationist (e.g., the hiker must have access to the trail, the skier to the slopes). Open
space, however, does not necessarily require the physical access to the resource (e.g., scenic
viewshed along a highway). As a result, recreational land must be accessible, while open
space may be inaccessible but still provide substantial public benefits.
2. Outdoor Recreation
While many outdoor recreational activities do not require tremendous acres for the
direct activity, they do require large areas for effective enjoyment. For example, hiking or
canoeing requires little land for the stream or trail, but areas without additional amenities
such as scenic landscapes would be used significantly less than areas with such amenities.
The recreational areas considered in this report provide goods and services that are
not usually bought and sold in the market. Therefore, we will not discuss built-up
environments, such as amusement parks, swimming pools, and bowling alleys. We will
discuss public and private lands available for hunting, fishing, boating, skiing, hiking,
birdwatching, etc.
Recreation has been identified as the fastest-growing industry in America. As
incomes have risen and leisure time has increased, more Americans have taken to the
outdoors more often. While the proportion of people who participate in traditional outdoor
activities such as fishing and hunting has remained relatively stable (30% and 10%,
respectively), other types of activities have grown tremendously (DOI, 1986b). The percent
of Americans (each 1% increase represents nearly 2 million people) participating in the
following activities has increased dramatically between 1960 and 1982:
Bicycling: Participation tripled from 9% to 28%, suggesting that 50 million
Americans were bicycling in 1982.
Canoeing: Participation quadrupled from 2% to 8%.
Swimming: Participation increased from 45% to 51%.
Camping: Participation more than doubled, from 8% to 19%
Skiing: Participation quadrupled, 2% to 9%.
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Most studies predict that demand for outdoor recreation will continue to grow much
faster than the population or the supply of public recreational land. That implies greater
crowding of the already scarce recreational resources. In addition, these participation
rates may understate the "true" demand, since 40%-50% of people maintain that they
would recreate more if crowding were relieved (DOI, 1979). Therefore, if the supply of
recreational land were increased at a rate greater than the projected increase in participation
we might still be contributing to the public's welfare. On the other hand, even without an
increase in recreational land, opportunities for outdoor recreation will still exist, but under
more congested conditions.
Over 30% of the land in the United States (776 million acres) is public land available
for a variety of recreational activities. Even if we omit the vast public acreage in Alaska
24% of the total acreage in the contiguous United States is public recreational land'
However, this aggregate statistic masks a great deal of variation among the different
regions of the country. Figure 18 depicts the percent of public land providing outdoor
recreation.
FIGURE 16: Percent of Public Land Providing
Outdoor Recreation
Legend
Proportion in Public
Land with Recreation
Opportunities
0.02 to 0.07
0.07 to 0.15
0.15 to 0.4
0.4 to 0.99
Source: Presidents Commission on Americans Outdoors, 1987.
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However, population density must be considered as well as acreage. While 2.1% of
the land in the Northeast, Corn Belt, and Southern Plains is used for recreation, the
Northeast has only half as many acres per 1000 people as the Corn Belt and even less when
compared to the Southern Plains.
Some regions have seen considerable activity in state and local acquisition of lands
available for recreation. The Northeast has nearly 13 million acres of state and local land,
and the Lake States have over 14 million acres. For these two regions, these state and local
lands constitute over 10% of their total land area and greatly increase the acres available
to their residents for recreation.
The amount of federal land available for recreation varies from 2.4 million acres in
the Northeast region to over 250 million in the Mountain region. It also varies as a percent
of total land area, from 2.1% in the Northeast, Corn Belt and Southern Plains regions, to
over 46% in the Mountain region.
TABLE 24: Federal Recreational Land, by Region
(Population in Millions; Land Area in Millions of Acres)
Region
Northeast
Appalachia
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Source: DOI, 1979.
1980
Census
Pop ulation
Land
Area
54
21
22
9
36
18
5
17
11
m
225
_1
226
111.7
123.8
123.6
92.1
164.8
122.2
194.4
211.6
547.3
204.2
1,895.7
369.4
2,265.1
Federal
Land
for
Recreation
2.4
8.3
6.2
6.1
3.5
8.8
6.7
4.5
255.0
87.4
388.9
317.5
706.4
% of Total
Land with
Federal.
Recreation
2.1
6.7
5.0
6.6
2.1
7.2
3.4
2.1
46.6
42.8
20.5
85.9
31.2
Federal
Acres/1000
Population
43.7
386.7
280.4
672.8
99.6
490.3
1269.1
260.0
. 22418.7
2873.4
1732.1
232328.0
3127.0
Combining the federal, state, and local acreage gives the true picture of the
recreational opportunities, since residents generally care more about access to recreational
lands than about which level of government is managing the lands. The Corn Belt has the
fewest acres of public recreational land per 1000 people, with the Northeast and .the
Southern Plains some what higher. The regions with the greatest number of acres per 1000
people are the Mountain and Pacific regions due to the vast number of acres in federal
ownership.
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TABLE 25: Public Recreational Land, By Region
(land area in millions of acres)
Region
Federal, State, &
& Local Recreation
Acres
Northeast 15.2
Appalachian 13.0
Southeast 13.8
Delta States 9.0
Corn Belt 6.5
Lake States 23.4
Northern Plains 8.5
Southern Plains 6.2
Mountain 264.2
Pacific 91.3
Contiguous U.S. 451.1
Far Pacific 325.7
Total U.S. 776.8
Total Public
Land as % of
Total Land
14
11
11
10
4
19
4
3
48
45
24
34
Total Public
Acres/1000
Population
282.3
608.5
621.7
1,003.9
182.4
1,294.6
1,603.9
360.6
23,231.4
2.998.6
2,009.1
238.350.3
3,438.8
Source: Presidents Commission on Americans Outdoors, 1987.
TABLE 26: Outdoor Recreation Statistics
Region
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Contiguous U.S.
Far Pacific
Total U.S.
Source: DOI, 1979.
% Population
With Park
Within 15
Minutes of
Their Home
65
49
45
52
56
55
62
55
67
SI
58
_Q
58
People
Per Sq.
Mile of
Total
Land Area
309
111
115
63
138
95
17
52
13
E5_
76
_2
64
People
Per Sq.
Mile of
Recreation
Land Area
2267
1052
1029
637
3509
494
399
1775
28
213
319
_3
186
65
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Another dimension of recreation supply is determining how far people live from
recreational lands. Most people seem to prefer to have recreational lands very close to their
homes, thereby allowing them to incur small costs for travel to and from the recreational
site. Therefore, we examined the proportion of people in a region with a park within 15
minutes of their homes. While for the United States as a whole 58% of the people have a
park within 15 minutes of home, only 45% of residents of the Southeast region and 49% of
the residents of the Appalachian region live within 15 minutes of a park (DOI, 1979).
While many outdoor recreational activities take place on public lands, private lands
often provide an important supplement. However, while traditionally most private lands
were open for hunting, fishing, and other recreational activities, many landowners have
become increasingly uneasy about liability and damage to their property. In a 1977 study,
only 6% of noncorporate owners of private forest and range and 42% of corporate owners
reported that they allowed open public access (Cordell et.al., 1980). An additional 20% of
noncorporate landowners allowed some public access with a fee, permit or prior permission.
While there was variation, in all regions 60%-70% of the noncorporate owners reported
that their forest and rangeland was closed to the public, or they refused to designate their
land as open or closed. This suggests that in most areas of the country the .opportunity for
use of private forest or rangeland for recreation is very limited.
In summary, the supply of land for a variety of recreational uses varies considerably
oss the country. However, the public land available for recreation is very concentrated
in a few regions of the country (even excluding the vast public recreational area in Alaska).
The Mountain region contains 59% of all public recreational lands (contiguous U.S.), and
the Pacific region accounts for another 20%; hence the two most western regions account
for 79% of all public recreation land. Two other regions, the Corn Belt and the Southern
Plains, each have only 1% of the available public recreational lands.
Although demand for different types of recreation and land types varies by region,
it appears that the supply of recreational land varies much more than the recreational
demand for land resources. This imbalance of supply and demand decreases enjoyment of
those people in crowded recreational surroundings, decreases participation in recreational
activities and most likely promotes increased travel to those regions with a surplus of
recreational land. These data certainly suggest vastly different degrees of access to
recreational land in the various regions of the country. If land demand in other sectors
decreases (especially in those regions where there are few acres of public recreation per
capita), there may be an opportunity to increase the benefits to the public by designing
policies to direct those acres into recreational uses.
3. Open Space
Open space is not so much a land use as it is a quality attached to certain land uses.
Certainly parks and forests can be said to have this quality of openness, usually meaning
that people can view natural surroundings with a minimum of obstructions.
The psychological sciences suggest that humans have an important desire, if not
need, for this quality of openness or open space. While researchers suggest that this need
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can be met in a variety of manners, they all refer to natural surroundings, ecological
diversity and relative absence of man-made structures. They suggest that open spaces are
valuable to humans because they reduce the stress of modern living, provide considerable
aesthetic benefits, increase the value of a variety of other pursuits, and possibly enhance
physical health.
People can derive the benefits of open space from a great variety of activities, such
as while commuting to work, biking, hiking, or boating. Others appreciate open space as
an opportunity to experience and observe nature, whether at the barrier islands, their
neighborhood park, or in their own backyard.
The human need for open space or "green space" has prompted many governmental
units to at least attempt to preserve some natural surroundings. Some have tried to
maintain greenbelts around urban areas, while others have set aside land within urban
areas for parks and wildlife areas. Some cities have established narrow strip parks along
creeks or rivers for a variety of recreational and open space activities. Other areas have
attempted to preserve agricultural land uses near urban areas to maintain open space.
While there is disagreement about what constitutes open space or what its benefits
are, everyone seems to agree that open space is important and that Americans want open
spaces. For many, hillsides planted with wheat or corn may offer scenic vistas and a
"natural" experience on their Sunday drive, while for others, they can only appreciate a
natural experience if they are in the middle of a one million acre wilderness area. It
appears that it is important to maintain a diversity of opportunities to satisfy the variety
of wants.
The history of civilization is one of changing land uses and changing values of the
land's inhabitants. While people appear to desire and need land for recreation and open
spaces, they also need food, fiber, forest products and land for residential and commercial
uses. Many land uses are not compatible and the United States can expect to continue to
experience conflicts concerning the use of our land resources. While many recreationists
feel that too little land is being protected from development, others suggest that some of
the protected recreational lands are too socially valuable to be preserved. Others suggest
that land presently being used for forest products or grazing would be much more valuable
as recreational lands. The role of policymakers and program staff will be to sort out the
various costs and benefits and provide mechanisms to allow for constructive debate and
reasonable compromises. Nearly everyone agrees that land for recreation and open spaces
is essential for the well-being of the United States and its people; that is a starting point
for discussion about quantity.
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F. WETLANDS
1. Introduction
Throughout history, wetlands have been considered wastelands. Swamps, bogs,
and marshes were devoid of value to man until drained and filled or their forests harvested,
whereupon they were converted to other uses.
However, in the 1960s, scientists and the public began to recognize the crucial role
wetlands play in the life cycle of game birds and commercial fish species, and the ability
of wetlands to mitigate damage from floods. Data collection and conservation programs
began to evolve for a land use sector scarcely surveyed before then.
Wetlands comprise a land cover type and use different from most of the other sectors
examined in this report. Their value lies not so much in the harvest of some commodity (as
in forests or cropland), but rather in the range of hidden benefits that unaltered wetlands
offer people not living near them.
About 5% of the land area of the contiguous states contains ecosystems classified as
wetlands. They total 90-99 million acres today—an area about the size of California—but
are disproportionately important in terms of the social and ecological benefits they provide.
While wetlands exist in every state, their distribution is far from uniform. Almost
half of the wetlands in the lower 48 states are situated in six states (Louisiana, Florida,
North Carolina, Minnesota, Georgia, and Michigan), encompassing about 44.1 million
acres (National Wetlands Trends estimate by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, (FWS),
in Tiner, 1984). Alaska is estimated to contain as much as 200 million acres, much of it
taiga black spruce bogs and estuarine marshes. This figure is fully 60% of its land base,
but definitional questions regarding how to count vast tracts of tundra complicate the
estimate. Regionally, the Far Pacific, Southeast, and Delta States regions contain the
largest percentages of wetlands as land cover.
Figure 17 depicts wetland areas considered by researchers to be nationally critical—
in terms of the ecological functions and wildlife habitat they provide, and the pressures on
them for conversion to other uses.
a. Definition of Wetlands
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's definition of wetlands has been widely accepted
in recent years, although EPA and the Corps of Engineers continue to negotiate definitions
for use in Clean Water Act section 404 dredge and fill permits.
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FIGURE 17: Location of Critical Wetland Areas
1. South Florida Palustrine Wetlands
2. Prairie Pothole Emergent Wetlands
3. Nebraska Sandhills and Rainwater Basin
4. Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain
5. Coastal Pocosins
6. Western Riparian
7. Corn Belt States
8. Kentucky - Tennessee
9. Appalachia - Southern Piedmont
10. Southern Coastal Plain
11. Hudson River Valley
12. Northern Minnesota
13. Washington - Oregon
14. Lake States
Source: Heimlich and Langner, 1986.
FWS considers wetlands transitional lands between terrestrial and aquatic systems
where the water table or level is at or near the surface, and where lands have:
1. hydrophytic (wetland) plants (periodic or continual), or
2. undrained hydric soils, or
3. seasonal inundation (flooding) of substrate during the growing season.
The FWS classifications developed in 1979 divide wetlands into five ecological
systems:
1. Marine: intidal wetlands along beaches and rocky shores associated with
deepwater habitat;
2. Estuarine: coastal wetlands, like salt and brackish tidal marshes, and
coastal sounds and rivers
3. Riverine: wetlands along fresh water streams and rivers, usually deepwater
habitat (over 6 feet deep)
4. Lacustrine: deepwater habitat, including standing freshwater bodies, like
lakes and ponds
5. Palustrine: inland marshes, bogs, and swamps, without deepwater—the
majority of U.S. wetlands.
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The National Wetlands Trends Study (NWTS) by the FWS estimated the wetland
area of the contiguous United States to be 99 million acres in the mid 1970s, of which about
93 million were palustrine:
*40.7 million acres (48%) were forested palustrine wetlands,
*28.4 million acres (28%) were palustrine emergent (dominated by herbaceous
vegetation like cattails, grasses, rushes),
*10.6 million acres (10%) were palustrine shrub-shrub (with woody vegetation
less then 20 feet tall).
*12.5 million acres were federally owned palustrine wetlands.
Estuarine wetlands covered another 5%, or 5.2 million acres. These were largely the
salt marshes behind barrier islands along the Atlantic, Gulf, and Alaskan coasts. Riparian
or riverine systems are relatively small in total acreage, but are ecologically significant
sites of wildlife habitat, biological diversity, and hydrologic system cycling, especially in
the arid Mountain and Pacific regions. Similarly, lacustrine wetlands are major waterfowl
breeding grounds in Minnesota and the Prairie Potholes region in the Northern Plains.
b. Wetland Values
Wetlands are a major space-extensive land cover in the United States that provide
a wide range of nonmarket goods for which there are not ready substitutes. Wetlands offer
four classes of environmental benefits, and, hence, societal values:
1. Fish and wildlife benefits (e.g., they provide habitat for shellfish and
other fish, and for avian and furbearing species; they preserve biological
diversity; and they support at least 35 federally listed endangered species,
mostly in California and the Southeast (OTA, 1984));
2. Environmental quality benefits (e.g., they maintain water quality,
remove sediment, and recycle nutrients);
3. Economic (market) benefits (e.g., they provide timber, reduce flood
damage, store and evenly discharge water, control erosion and wave
damage, and stock commercial fisheries); and
4. Recreation and open space (nnnmarket) benefits (e.g.. they provide
viewsheds and opportunities for consumptive (duck hunting) and
nonconsumptive (canoeing) recreation.
Of the 10 most important recreational marine fish species landed in 1979, 57%
depended on estuaries. Twenty percent of total North American waterfowl are produced
in the wetlands in the contiguous states.
Table 27 indicates the surprisingly high magnitude of wetland values. The Corps
of Engineers' study of the Charles River Basin in Massachusetts estimated the flood
benefits of protecting 8,500 acres of wetlands there at over $1.2 million per year, and the
70
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recreational and fish and wildlife benefits at $124,800 per year. The 2,300-acre wetland
ecosystem of the Alcovy River in Georgia was found to have an estimated value of $1.5
million, or $686 per acre. And Virginia's tidal marshes have been valued at $2,500 per acre
for waste assimilation and $4,150 per acre for total life support ecological functions (Tiner,
1984).
TABLE 27: Estimated Wetland Values per Acre,
From Recent Studies
Function Site and Source Value per Acre
Aquaculture Tidal Marsh, VA 872-2,241
Fish Production Tidal Marsh, VA 269
Life-support Tidal Marsh, VA 10,333
Waste Assimilation Tidal Marsh, VA 6,225
Sediment Accretion Alcovy River, GA 3
Timber Production Alcovy River, GA 1,605
Water Quality Enhancement Alcovy River, GA 1,108
Ecological Functions Coastal Marshes, MI 4,472
Fish and Wildlife Coastal Marshes, MI 843
Flood Control Charles River, MA 362
Fish, Wildlife & Recreation Charles River, MA 38
Source: Heimlich and Langner, 1986.
Cumulative loss of wetlands over broad regions, rather than the individual loss of
tens of acres in one county or another, has recently been identified as the overarching
problem. Transboundary ecological processes—in which species or resources (like water)
in one wetland cross geographic boundaries and influence ecosystems elsewhere—require
threshold amounts of undisturbed habitat. The transcontinental migration of waterfowl
up the Central Flyway, from coastal estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico to riparian swamps
along the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain and up to the 100,000-square-mile Prairie
Pothole region in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Montana (which produces 50% of North
America's duck population annually (Tiner, 1984)), offers a prominent example.
c. Historic Distribution of U.S. Wetlands
America's abundant swamps and marshes were considered low-valued wastelands
and an impediment to development by colonists. Consequently, some of the most widespread
wetland destruction occurred between about 1850 and 1900 in areas outside the Northeast.
By authorization of the Swamp Land Acts of 1849,1850, and I860,64.9 million acres
of wetlands were patented (given to states by congressional action) between 1849 and 1954.
These lands included 20.3 million acres in Florida, 9.5 million in Louisiana, and 7.7 million
in Arkansas (Heimlich and Langner, 1986; Tiner, 1984). The 15 states receiving these
lands (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan,
71
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Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin) were expected to drain
them for agriculture by building levees and ditches. Iowa and California had essentially
lost their wetland heritage to the plow by the turn of the century.
Between 1954 and 1978, coastal zone residential and industrial development,
erosion, and subsidence of Louisiana's immense coastal marshes doubled the rate of
coastal wetland loss. During the same period, Kansas lost 40% of its remaining wetlands.
Over half of Ohio's wetlands along Lake Erie have been destroyed since 1954.
d. Measuring Wetlands
Only a few national-scale data collection efforts for wetlands have been undertaken.
No one federal agency is charged with overseeing wetlands; FWS, EPA, and the Corps of
Engineers all play major roles. While the Corps is responsible for regulating dredge-and-
fill permits for wetlands today, for example, historically the Corps also has been charged
with maintaining navigable streams in the United States—often through extensive
channelization and levee construction that destroys wetlands.
Wetland data are generally: (1) fragmentary, and local or regional in scale; (2) not
readily comparable across wetlands, because of the different definitions and time frames
used; and (3) not comprehensive, since most studies have been performed by academic or
local investigators, rather than state or federal agencies.
National data sets began with drainage inventories by USDA or others in 1906,
1919, and 1948 that tallied wetlands and their potential for conversion to agriculture. The
FWS published its first national report in 1956. Its 1979-83 report Wetlands of the United
States: Current Status and Trends is the standard reference (Tiner, 1984). Statistical
estimates of acreage in wetlands and deepwater habitat (greater than 6 feet deep) were
constructed for the mid-1950s and mid-1970s through use of a stratified sample of four-
square-mile units on aerial photographs. The 1982 National Resources Inventory (NRI)
estimated fewer wetlands acres than FWS's report because of some under-counting of
intermittent wetlands, conversion of acres in the interval, and nonreporting of federal
lands. The 1984 Office of Technology Assessment report "Wetlands: Their Use and
Regulation" compiled data from a variety of sources, mostly at the case study level.
Current data collection efforts are under way for coastal wetlands by NOAA, using
a point-sample method that should be highly reliable; results are expected in 1988. The
National Wetlands Inventory is updating its estimates with better methods (point grid,
with finer resolution). It is about 40% complete for the lower 48 states, and about 10%
complete for Alaska.
2. Current Situation
The best approach to assembling wetlands data at present is to collect various
estimates. The data in this section are largely taken from such an effort by EPA, reported
in Adler (1987).
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a. Estimates of Total U.S. Wetlands Acreage
Several estimates of total wetlands for the contiguous states hover around 90-99
million acres. Of this acreage, the federal government owns 12.5 million acres. Most of this
acreage is concentrated in Fish and Wildlife Service refuges along the Atlantic and Gulf
coasts, and Forest Service interior wetlands (Table 28). Federal acreage in Alaska
certainly surpasses the reported 29 million acres in the FWS refuge system, since about
200 million (60%) of the 365 million acres in the state are considered to be wetlands,
including tundra.
TABLE 28: Federal Wetlands, 1985
Agency Millions of Acres
Fish and Wildlife Service 5.0
Forest Service 2.9
National Park Service 1.9
Bureau of Land Management 1.4
Army Corps of Engineers 1.0
Bureau of Reclamation 0.2
Other agencies 0.1
Total contiguous states 12.5
Fish and Wildlife (Alaska) 29.0
Other agencies (Alaska) NA
Source: DOI study reported in Heimlich and Langner, 1986.
Table 29 shows the three major estimates of national wetlands acreage. The EPA
figure of 95 million acres may be the best guess, since the 99 million acre figure is generally
considered to be high by most experts.
TABLE 29: Wetlands Estimates For the Contiguous States, 1980s
Source of Estimate Millions of Acres
NRI (1982) + DOI federal wetlands study (1985) 90.9
National Wetlands Status & Trends (1984) 99.0
OPPE/OPA compilation of studies (1987) 95.38
b. Current Regional Distribution of Wetlands
Regional estimates are considered more reliable than national figures, although
case studies of individual wetland tracts or physiographic regions (based on major types
of wetland habitats) are preferable.
73
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TABLE 30: Summary of Current Wetlands Acreage Estimates
(in millions of acres)
Total
Acres
% % of River- Lacus- Palus- Estua-
Left Region ine trine trine rine
Mar-
ine
Region
NE
APP
SE
BELT
CORN
LAKE
NO PL
SO PL
MTN
PAC
48 States 95.36 44* 5.0 >2.88 >2.53 70.73 6.41 0.28
8.19
9.61
27.89
16.01
2.11
17.75
4.85
2.95
3.44
2.57
NA
NA
NA
61
13
46
36
NA
NA
NA
7.3
7.8
22.6
17.4
1.3
14.5
2.5
1.4
0.6
L2
NA
NA
>2.70
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.01
0.10
0.06
0.05
0.02
>0.37
NA
0.03
1.36
0.02
0.03
0.58
0.09
7.37
4.92
19.98
7.33
2.09
16.37
5.20
2.45
2.73
2.28
0.63
0.30
1.99
2.90
0.00
NA
0.00
0.45
0.00
0.14
0.08
NA
0.19
NA
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
NA
FAR PAC 200.07
99 54.
NA NA NA NA
NA
* Rough estimate based on estimate in Tiner (1984) of 215 million acres of
original wetlands in the contiguous states.
Note: Estimates were performed by various agencies and researchers. Palustrine
and estuarine estimates appear to be the most reliable and systematically
collected.
Source: 1987 Office of Policy Analysis/EPA estimates, based on c.
in Adler, 1987.
35 sources,
The Far Pacific region, with over twice the percentage of total acreage found in
wetlands ecosystems of the next largest region, offers the highest concentration of hydric
soils and hydrophytic plants. However, Alaska skews the data by its huge size and 60%
wetlands cover.
Fully 22.6% of the Southeast land base contains its nearly 28 million acres of
wetlands—an area the size of the states of Pennsylvania or Louisiana. About 72% of the
Southeast's wetlands are palustrine, 10% are riverine, and another 7% are estuarine. This
regional figure represents 28% of the lower 48 states' total stock of wetlands. Florida, with
about 12 million acres (8.6 million in palustrine, and 1.1 million acres in estuaries), has the
largest acreage in the U.S., outside of Alaska.
To focus on one critical area briefly, the pocosin forested swamps in North Carolina's
coastal zone, for example, encompass 1 million acres now, down from 2.2 million as recently
as 1962. Fully 44% of them are owned by major timber companies that have transferred
half a million acres to large-scale agriculture since 1970. Pressure on the pocosins is likely
74
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to continue, since they are unlikely to be affected by recent "Swampbuster" legislation in
FSA85, due to their high costs of conversion, ownership by large agribusiness and forestry
firms, and low rates of federal farm subsidy.
The Lakes States are third in total wetlands, with 17.75 million acres on 14% of the
land area—about 46% of the original wetlands in this region. The Delta region has the
highest percentage of its original wetlands left (excluding Alaska), at 61%. And although
the Corn Belt has both one of the lowest percentages of land in wetlands (1.3%) and the
lowest percentage of natural wetlands remaining (13%), some studies estimate only 2% of
the Mountain riverine ecosystems are still intact.
In terms of distribution of ecosystem types, lacustrine (lake-like) swamps are
concentrated in the Lake States, and estuarine systems in the Delta States and Southeast.
Louisiana has a third of the coastal marshes in the contiguous states.
c. Causes of Wetland Loss
Figure 18 shows the percentage of wetlands remaining for states where data are
available. Most of the Corn Belt states have less than 20% left, while the Lakes and upper
Northern Plains have over 40% surviving.
The patterns of gains and losses by physiographic region are demonstrated in Table
31. The highest percentages of loss from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s took place in the
Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain (32% of existing wetlands, or 3.7 million acres) and the
Pacific mountains (31%, about a half-million acres). Loss figures for coastal flats and
rolling plains along the Gulf and Atlantic clustered around 13% lost in the two decades.
Substantial gains of a half-million or more acres took place in the Upper Midwest, Central,
and Dakota-Minnesota flats, mostly from dam construction, lack of maintenance of
irrigation ditches, and natural regeneration of hydric vegetation on abandoned farmland.
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FIGURE 18: Percentage of Wetlands Remaining
< 20x
20 - 40x
> 40x
Unknown
0
Source: OTA, 1984.
TABLE 31: Pattern of Wetland Loss by Physiographic Region
Wetland portion
of region
(mid-1950s)
New loss of
wetlands (mid- Actual
1950s -mid-1970s loss
Region (%) (*>)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Atlantic coastal zone a
Gulf coastal zone b
Atlantic coastal flats a
Gulf coastal flats b
Gulf-Atlantic rolling plain
Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain
Eastern highlands
Dakota-Minnesota drift and lake bed flats
Upper Midwest
Central
Rocky Mountains
Intermontane
Pacific mountains
16
28
36
27
8
36
2
10
8
1
4
1
1
3
9
11
13
13
32
2
9
7
3
<1
12
31
(acres)
84,000
371 ,000
1,274,000
1 ,872,000
2,310,000
3,749,000
322,000
816,000
2,286,000
763,000
125,000
685,000
473,000
Actual
gain
(acres)
48,000
70,000
74,000
341 ,000
291 ,000
331 ,000
211.000
424,000
754,000
637,000
112,000
320,000
94,000
Standard
error for
net change
(%)
52.3C
11.3d
15.0«
14.51
31.29
8.6h
68.89
33.69
16.89
I
1
i
77
a Atlantic regions do not include Florida.
b Gull regions include Florida.
c Standard error given is lor saltwater wetlands. The freshwater wetlands had a net gain ol 10,626 acres with a standard error ol 66.9 percent.
d Standard error given is lor saltwater wetlands. The freshwater wetlands had a nel gain ol 2.137 acres with a standard deviation greater than this value.
• Standard error given is lor freshwater wetlands. Saltwater wetlands had a net toss of 866 acres with a standard deviation greater than this value.
' Standard error given is lor freshwater wetlands. Saltwater wetlands had a net gain of 933 acres with a standard deviation error of 81.6 percent.
9 Standard error is for all vegetated wetlands measured in region which included exclusively freshwater types.
n Standard error is tor freshwater wetlands. Saltwater wetlands had a net loss ol 22,282 acres with a standard error ol 67.8 percent.
' Standard deviation is greater than estimated net change.
Source: OTA, 1984.
Agriculture is the primary cause of wetland loss since the Second World War,
although urban and coastal development are predominant in the Atlantic coastal zone.
Data on installed drainage in the United States show that acreage drained (mostly
converted wetland) soared from 10 million to 110 million acres from 1905 to 1980 (Heimlich
and Langner, 1986).
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Agricultural practices contributing to wetland loss include:
1. clearing of palustrine forests;
2. draining and filling land;
3. constructing dams, levees, and canals; and
4. withdrawing water for irrigation that changes the water regime or drops
the water table.
Agriculture was responsible for an average of 87% of wetland conversion from the
mid-1950s to mid-1970s (Tiner, 1984). Very high rates were observed in the Atlantic
coastal flats, Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain, Intermontane, Pacific mountains, Dakota-
Minnesota flats, and Gulf-Atlantic rolling plains (Table 32.)
TABLE 32: Percentage of Vegetated Wetland Loss to Different
Uses by Physiographic Region (mid-1950s to mid-1970s)
Region
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Atlantic coastal zone b
Gulf coastal zone c
Atlantic coastal flats t>
Gulf coastal flats c
Gulf-Atlantic rolling plain
Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain
Eastern highlands
Dakota-Minnesota drift and
lake bed flats
Upper Midwest
Central
Rocky Mountains
Intermontane
Pacific mountains
Agriculture
5
1
89
66
84
90
38
83
71
63
71
88
87
Urban Other Water/nonvegetated
36 5
19 2
6 2(+)«
19 4(+)
4(+)
3 30)
22 5(+)
1 4(+)
8 3(+)
5 151+)
0 1gi+)
1 7(+)
1 7(+)
54
78
3
11
9
4
35
12(+)
18
17(+)
10(+)
4(+)
5
B (*) Indicates there was a net gain in wetlands from the use category In the region. II (•) is not indicated, then there was a net loss Irom that use category
b Atlantic regions do not include Florida
c Gull regions Include Florida
Source: OTA, 1984.
The construction of waterway engineering structures and the filling of areas for
urban expansion were prime accelerators of wetland loss in the years before the mid- 1950s.
In the Mississippi Delta region, in the late 19th century, the Army Corps of Engineers
created a multi-thousand-mile levee and dike system to maintain water levels in dredged
channels and to lessen flood damages.
The bottomland hardwood forests (BLH) in the Delta alluvial plain depend upon
seasonal inundation. Of the original 24 million acres of BLH, only 5.2 million remain; 3.7
million were lost from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s alone. Protection of forest from
flooding by the levee system has been the primary cause of profitable conversion of wet
forest there to agriculture (DOI, 1987). In some regions, such as south Florida, the draining
and filling of wetlands on a vast scale has encouraged population growth otherwise
hindered by land prices and mosquito pests. After World War II, coastal saltwater marshes
along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts were rapidly converted to vacation homes once bridges
and highways were built out to barrier islands, and federal insurance was made available.
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Table 32 above indicates that in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones, Gulf coastal
flats, and Eastern highlands urbanization plays a significant role in consuming wetlands.
Other causes of loss include:
1. dredging of transportation corridors, channelization (the Atlantic and Gulf
coastal zones and interior water bodies are affected), and
2. sea rise from climate change (Louisiana loses 25,000 acres a year to rising
water levels; Florida and the Great Lakes are also affected).
3. Recent Trends
The protection of wetland systems has accelerated during the past two decades. The
Mountain and Northern Plains states generally have preserved 20-50% of their hydric
ecosystems. However, less than 20% of the wetlands in most states are protected—
including the progressive Lake and Northeast regions, in part because of their low rates
of federal and state land ownership.
FIGURE 19: Percentage of Wetlands Protected
Source: OTA, 1984.
Data necessary to analyze the current state of wetlands and differential rates of loss
to various causes are not available. However, three factors seem to have slowed the rates
of loss since the mid-1970s:
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1. Legislation: The Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 sparked state protection
efforts that have precipitated huge drops in the conversion of coastal wetlands since 1980.
For example, New Jersey's loss of coastal marsh dropped from 3,100 acres to 50 acres per
year, from 1973 to 1982 (Tiner, 1984).
2. Swampbuster provisions of the FSA85: It is too early to estimate the effects of this
act. However, preliminary analysis suggests that areas with low production of federally
subsidized crops, high costs of converting wetlands, and small wet areas relative to
surrounding cropland are unlikely to be protected by Swampbuster. These vulnerable
areas will probably include the North Carolina pocosins, bottomland hardwoods of the
Mississippi plain, coastal marshes taken for urban use, and Western riparian zones.
Swampbuster is likely to decrease attrition in those areas with high federal subsidy rates,
such as the Prairie Potholes and Corn Belt. Figure 20 presents the locations where
wetlands are most likely to suffer from conversion to agricultural land.
FIGURE 20: Wetlands Feasible for Agricultural Production,
by Region and Acreage
Wetlands with high or
medium cropland potential
1000 acres
0-100
100-200
200-300
300-500
More than 500
Source: Heimlich and Langner, 1986.
3. Population shifts from the North to the Sunbelt place new pressures on wetlands
in expanding regions: Florida; Texas; Washington, B.C.; Arizona; Southern California.
In sum, wetlands are likely to experience significant additional extirpation from
agricultural conversion, urbanization along the coasts, global sea rise, and degradation of
their water quality. Only very small amounts and percentages of these valuable resources
are currently protected, and the market forces working against them are vigorous and
multifaceted.
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G. MINERALS
1. Introduction
As of 1971, the mining industry was using 3.7 million acres or 0.16% of the land in
the United States (DOI, 1974). The four largest regions mined were the Corn Belt, the
Appalachian, the Northeast, and the Mountain regions, with, respectively, 25%, 17%, 16%,
and 11% of the total area in production (see Table 33).
Of the total land area mined, production of coal, stone, and the mix of sand and
gravel accounted for 2.6 million acres or 73% of all mined lands. Although recent acreage
data are only available for coal, between 1971 and 1985, coal production increased by 60%
and stone production by 16%. These increases imply that the amount of land used to mine
these minerals has increased correspondingly. Meanwhile, sand and gravel production
declined by 10% (DOI, 1974; DOE, 1987; DOI, 1987c).
Two other minerals that appear to cover vast tracts of land are oil and gas. In 1985,
125 million acres of federal and Indian onshore land were under leases, contracts, permits,
and licenses (DOI, 1986a). Of this land, 12.5 million acres of leases were producing oil and
gas. However, actual drilling and exploration activities affect very few acres (perhaps
several thousand acres). Most land area in leases is never used.
TABLE 33: Use of Land by the Mining Industry,
by Region, 1930-1971
(thousands of acres)
Region Coal Stone Sand/Gravel Total
Northeast 251.6 67.1 108.2 590.7
Appalachian 458.7 77.1 80.1 627.2
Southeast 34.9 53.3 16.9 202.7
Delta States 3.1 14.6 26.7 58.4
Corn Belt 613.1 124.4 106.0 921.3
Lake States 0.6 51.1 98.8 282.4
Northern Plains 47.2 9.8 38.9 108.4
Southern Plains 14.6 40.5 32.2 113.5
Mountain 37.3 20.6 72.6 418.8
Pacific L4 53.8 115.5 296.9
Contiguous U.S. 1,462.5 512.3 695.9 3620.3
Far Pacific 3& 3.9 10.0 34.4
Total U.S. 1,470.0 516.0 660.0 3,650.0
Note: Data may not add to totals shown because of independent rounding.
Source: DOI, 1974.
Coal mining has affected the American landscape more than the mining of any
other mineral. Coal mining is concentrated in 27 states, and because it is space-extensive,
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it reduces wildlife habitat. Coal mining also generates waste and tailing piles that may
leach acids that subsequently pollute land and water ecosystems. Mining of other
minerals, such as silver, gold, uranium, and phosphate, produce similar environmental
hazards; however, the land areas and population affected are relatively small. While stone
and sand and gravel production are similar in scale to coal production, they consist of local
operations dispersed in 49 and 50 states, respectively (See Table 34). Unlike mining coal,
silver, and uranium, production of stone and of sand and gravel does not generally result
in leaching toxic substances. For these reasons, the following discussion will focus only on
coal production and its effects on the environment.
TABLE 34: 1985 Production of Coal, Stone, and Sand and Gravel
Thousands of Number of Number of
Short Tons Mines Involved States Involved
Coal 883,638 3,000 27
Stone 1,020,121 3,860 49
Sand & Gravel 829,530 6,069 50
Source: DOE, 1987; DOI, 1987c.
2. Historical Perspective
Begun in 1748 near Richmond, Virginia, commercial coal production had spread to
12 states, by the mid 1800s. By 1900, all the major coal fields were being mined (see Figure
21) (DOE, 1987). Most mining was conducted underground, although by the early 1970s,
surface mining accounted for more than half of total coal production. In the mid-1800s, coal
was used primarily for fuel in trains, although it was also used as fuel for space heating
and for steamboats. In the last several decades, electric power plants have been the
primary consumer of coal, although some coal is used in industrial, commercial, and
manufacturing enterprises (DOE, 1987).
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FIGURE 21: Major U.S. Coal Fields
HI Bituminous Coal
g Subbituminous Coal
[Q Lignite
• Anthracite
Source: DOE, 1987.
3. The Current Situation for Coal
a. Reserves
Found in 38 states, coal underlies 458,000 square miles, or about 13% of the total
U.S. land area (DOE, 1987). The total quantity of coal resources equals 3.9 trillion tons.
However, only 478 billion tons are considered to be included in the "demonstrated reserve
base" — coal that can be technically and economically mined. Three states — Montana,
Illinois, and Wyoming, account for nearly 50% of total reserves (DOE, 1987). Figure 22
depicts the percent share of total reserves by state.
Not all coal in the demonstrated reserve base is equally recoverable, however.
Natural features (such as folds and faults), surface features (such as towns and roads),
environmental restrictions, and technical constraints can limit actual recovery by 10% to
60% (DOE, 1987). Therefore, total recoverable reserves were estimated to be 239 billion
tons in 1985 (DOE, 1987).
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FIGURE 22: U.S. Demonstrated Coal Reserve Base, 1985
(billions of short tons)
30-121
* Less than 0.05
billion short tons
Source: DOE, 1987.
b. Use
In 1985,883.6 million short tons of coal valued at $22.3 billion were produced in 27
states. The top three producing states were Kentucky, Wyoming, and West Virginia, which
together accounted for 48% of total U.S. production. Roughly 54% of total production came
from surface mines, with the remainder coming from underground mines (DOE, 1987).
Bituminous coal, the major type of coal mined in 1985, accounted for 69% of total coal
production. The remaining major types of coal — subbituminous coal, lignite, and
anthracite—accounted for 22%, 8%, and 0.5% of production, respectively. Table 35 depicts
the quantity of coal produced by type. Bituminous coal, also known as soft coal, is used
mainly for generating electricity, making coke, and space heating. It has a relatively high
heat content of 24 million British Thermal Units (BTUs) per ton. Only anthracite has a
higher heat content of 25 million BTUs per ton. Subbituminous coal and lignite produce
relatively less heat, at 18 million and 14 million BTUs per ton, respectively.
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TABLE 35: U.S. Coal Production, 1985
(thousand short tons)
Region Total Bitum- Subbitum- Anthracite Lignite
inous inous
Northeast 73,214 68,933 0 4,281 0
Appalachian 324,925 324,924 000
Southeast 27,685 27,685 000
Delta States 275 68 0 0 207
Corn Belt 134,058 134,058 000
Lake States 00000
Northern Plains 27,685 994 0 0 26,871
Southern Plains 48,775 3,714 0 0 45,061
Mountain 235,802 48,816 186,774 0 212
Pacific 4.509 12 4.425 Q Tl
Contiguous U.S. 877,108 609,204 191,199 4,281 72,422
Far Pacific 1.433 Q 1.433 Q Q
Total U.S. 878,540 609,204 192,633 4,281 72,422
Note: Data may not add to totals shown because of independent rounding.
Source: DOE, 1986.
The Appalachian region continued to dominate bituminous coal mining by producing
53% of all bituminous coal. The Corn Belt was also a major producer, with 22% of total
bituminous coal production.
Subbituminous coal amounted to 22% of total coal production in 1985. The Mountain
region, which was responsible for 97% of all subbituminous coal production, contains the
largest and most productive U.S. surface coal mine, the Powder River Basin (see Figure
21). From coal beds ranging between 20 and 110 feet, the Basin produced 153 million tons
in 1985.
c. Ownership
Mineral deposits are found on both private and public land. While no precise
estimates exist on the extent of publicly owned minerals versus privately owned minerals,
recent estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) indicate that public lands contain 25% of the nation's oil and gas and 50%
of its coal (Brubaker, 1984). Mere location of mineral deposits on land, however, does not
imply mineral ownership. In 1986, the BLM administered 66 million acres of reserved
mineral interests where surface lands are privately owned (Brubaker, 1984). With respect
to coal, the federal government owns coal on more than 11 million acres, but on two-thirds
of this land, private owners hold surface rights (Clawson, 1983).
Several federal mining laws direct the nature of mineral development on both public
and private lands. The'Mining Laws of 1866 and 1872 provided a means for individuals
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to obtain title of and extract valuable minerals from the public domain. The 1872 law
further gave prospectors the right to explore for hardrock minerals such as coal in deposits
that underlie federal public or private lands (Brubaker, 1984). The most important mini ng
law in recent years has been the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977,
which gives surface owners the right to veto the mining of federally owned coal beneath
their lands.
Tracts of producing federal leases for coal amounted to 166.4 million tons on federal
lands and 33.2 million tons on Indian lands. Their combined production represented 23%
of total coal production and brought in $127 million in revenues from leases (DOE, 1987).
The total acreage involved in the 1985 leasing program amounted to 419,748 acres, of
which 195,918 acres were Indian land (DOE, 1987; DOI, 1986). By far, the most productive
federal site in 1985 was the Powder River Basin, where 28 mining leases on 78,214 acres
of federal land produced 118.7 million tons. Coal production from the Basin accounted for
nearly 75% of total production on all federal lands.
d. Transportion
Railroads transport roughly 60% of all coal shipped each year. In fact, coal is the
major commodity hauled by railraods and their leading source of revenue. Barges and
ships haul approximately 16% of all coal and trucks haul about 13%. Conveyors, trams,
and slurry pipelines haul the remaining coal. One slurry pipeline, the Black Mesa coal
slurry pipeline, carries about 4.3 million tons of finely ground coal annually along a 273
mile-long route from a coal mine in Arizona to a power plant in Nevada. The slurry uses
water to transport the coal, which is about 50% of the slurry by weight (DOE, 1987).
e. Environmental Effects
While relatively few acres in the U.S. were used for mining between 1930 and 1971,
only 40% or 1.46 million acres of the land mined was reclaimed (DOI, 1974). Figure 23
compares geographically the land utilized and reclaimed during this period. Most of the
reclamation occurred on lands where bituminous coal was surface mined.
The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 was created to insure that
lands mined for coal would be reclaimed. To accomplish this goal, the act created the Office
of Surface Mining and Reclamation Enforcement to oversee reclamation of coal mines
throughout the United States.
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FIGURE 23: Geographic Comparison of Land Used and Reclaimed,
by State, 1930-1971
»- .*
Acres Utilized
EH Under 20,000
20,000-50,000
50,000-150,000
Oven 50,000
Percent Reclaimed
Under 20
20-30
30-40
Over 40
Source: DOI, 1974.
Table 36 indicates that the number of acres mined and reclaimed for selected years
between 1974 and 1983 have been almost equal. However, what it does not point out is
that some violations are not addressed. Recently, the General Accounting Office noted that
only one out of 14 observed violations of strip-mining standards had been cited by state
inspectors in Kentucky, and that Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Montana also
had serious inspection problems (Franklin, 1987).
TABLE 36: Acres Mined and Reclaimed During Surface Mining,
1974-1978 and 1983
Year
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1983
Production % of Total Acres Acres
Surface Production Mined Reclaimed
205,549 62.9 40,238 40,999
238,680 66.5 49,028 51,686
214,589 55.7 37,672 38,284
313,519 74.1 67,286 61,716
309,315 73.1 67,638 59,142
392,533 81.5 42,668 44,557
Source: DOE, 1987.
Adverse environmental consequences of coal production are not limited solely to
land disturbances. As mentioned previously, coal mine wastes and tailings can leach toxics
that can harm the environment. In addition, the burning of high sulfur coal, that is, coal
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which is at least 1% sulfur contributes greatly to acid precipitation, which can adversely
affect terrestrial and water-based ecosystems by increasing the acidity of water. Lakes and
soils that are not naturally acidic can become so highly acidified from acid precipitation
that they can no longer support life. Many ecosystems throughout the United States,
Canada, and Western Europe have been severely damaged by acid precipitation.
Several forms of coal contain relatively large amounts of sulfur. As Table 37
indicates, high volatile bituminous coal in parts of the Appalachian region and the Corn
Belt are highly sulfuric. In addition, semi-anthracite from Arkansas and subbituminous
(coal A) from Wyoming are high in sulfur.
TABLE 37: Sulfur and Heat Content of Coal by Type, 1985
Coal Type
State
% Sulfur Heat Content (BTU/lb)
Subbituminous (C Coal) CO 0.3-0.5 8,560-12,560
Subbituminous (B Coal) WY 0.5-0.6 9,610-13,080
Low Volatile Bit. WV 0.8 14,830-15,690
Anthracite PA 0.8 12,880
Lignite ND 0.9-1.6 7,000-12,230
Medium Volatile Bit. PA 1.0-1.1 14,310-15,590
Subbituminous (A Coal) WY 1.4-1.8 10,650-13,390
Semi-Anthracite AR 1.7-1.9 13,880-15,430
High Volatile Bit. IL 3.8-5.0 10,810-14,230
High Volatile Bit. WV 5.5-5.7 14,040-15,180
Source: DOE, 1987.
4. Trends
a. Production
Annual coal production rose from 200 million tons before 1900 to 600 million tons
in 1917. Between 1970 and 1985, annual coal production increased from 612 million tons
to 884 million tons (DOE, 1987).
The most interesting trend in coal production is the gradual switch in the location
and type of coal that is mined. Table 38 indicates that over the last fifteen years the relative
proportion of coal mined in the Mountain region increased from 5% to 27%. Meanwhile, the
relative proportion of coal mined from the Appalachian region decreased from 51% to 37%.
Similarly, the proportion of coal mined from the Corn Belt decreased from 24% to 15%.
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TABLE 38: Coal Production in 1970 and 1985, by Region
(in thousands of short tons)
Region 1970 % of 1985 %of
Production Total Production Total
Northeast 91,835 15 74,392 8
Appalachian 312,630 51 328,422 37
Southeast 20,560 3 27,797 3
Delta States 268 0 287 0
Corn Belt 148,167 24 134,281 15
Lake States 00 00
North Plains 7,266 1 27,867 3
South Plains 2,427 0 48,796 6
Mountain 28,920 5 235,855 27
Pacific 37 Q 4.509 1
Contiguous U.S. 612,110 100 882,206 100
Far Pacific 549 Q 1.433 Q
Total U.S. 612,659 100 883,639 100
Note: Data may not sum to totals because of independent rounding.
Source: DOE, 1987.
Corresponding to the switch of production from the Appalachian region and the
Corn Belt to the Mountain region is a switch from production of bituminous coal to
subbituminous coal. Therefore, the average heat content and sulfur content of all coal
mined should decrease. In addition, the level of acid precipitation should also decrease.
The other major significant trend in coal production is the amount of coal produced
from federal leases. As Figure 24 demonstrates, production of coal from federal lands has
increased dramatically between 1950 and 1980.
b. Consumption
The quantity of coal used annually at electric power plants has been increasing
steadily. The total amount of coal used each year rose from around 400 million tons
annually during the early 1970s to 694 million tons in 1985 (DOE, 1987). Coal used for coke
production in the iron and steel industry fell from more than 90 million tons per year in
the 1970s to 41 million tons in 1985. This decrease was caused mainly by a decline in the
U.S. iron and steel industry from reduced demand and increasing foreign competition
(DOE, 1987).
-------
FIGURE 24: Coal Leases, Mines, Production, and Royalties
per Ton on the Public Domain, 1950-1980
TJ
2
Q.
-1 800
I
CO
£
£
"5T
o
o
co
J
E
c 20 -
600
400
- 200
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
CO
0)
SI
Source: Clawson, 1983.
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CHAPTER IV
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LAND USES
Long-term projections of demand for and supply of land by use and geographic
region are vital for private decision-makers and those in the public sector who attempt to
devise and implement public policies. Determining these projections is necessary to insure
that land resources are adequate and environmentally sound for future generations. In
addition, projections are essential for managing those resource uses which are not
evaluated, priced, and allocated by the market place (e.g., public goods and common
property resources).
Projections of the future are determined by a variety of methods. In the absence of
other information, a simple extrapolation of past trends can be used to predict the future.
With additional information about the relationship between outputs, inputs, prices and
behavior, projections can be generated by sophisticated mathematical models.
All projections are strongly dependent upon assumptions concerning technology,
markets, prices, government actions, etc. For example, most projections incorporate some
rate of population growth that is based upon assumptions concerning the birth and death
rate as well emigration rates. Changes in tastes and preferences of people can have
tremendous impacts upon the accuracy of projections (e.g., a change in family size
preferences can have impacts throughout the economy).
All projections or forecasts require considerable data concerning competing demands
for land, ability of the land resources to supply the desired goods and services, as well as
past data to construct trends. In addition, forecasters require detailed information about
the substitutability of various goods and services, price elasticities, production technologies,
government policies, interest rates or availability of capital, etc. Availability of information
to estimate the model parameters often determines the reliability of the projections.
Projections or forecasting techniques work best in developing time trends or
determining how present patterns of use can be extrapolated into the near future. They
cannot identify turning points (points along a trend line where the trend significantly
changes direction) or anticipate the dramatic changes which occur suddenly and which
send shock waves throughout the economy. For example, the tremendous price increases
for oil in the 1970s and early 1980s had tremendous impacts upon the economy, most of
which were not anticipated and likely could not have been anticipated (e.g., increased
imports of foreign autos, increased use of wood for home heating, development of oil shale,
and a variety of secondary impacts including environmental impacts).
These major shocks often invalidate prior projections and sometimes make them
appear comical. However, it is important to remember that all individuals, families,
companies and governments must plan for the future. In general, planning based upon
imperfect information is probably better than planning based upon no information.
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However, the better the information, the better the forecast; the better the forecast, the
better the planning facilitates meeting established goals.
Nonetheless, users of these projections should be aware of their limitations,
including the possibility of external shocks to the system. Close examination of the
assumptions underlying the projections cannot be overstressed, as these assumptions
assume the primary factors driving the projected trends and are often an extrapolation or
best guess. Because projections are also very sensitive to time, the longer the planning
horizon for the projections, the more likely that technology, preferences and behavior will
change.
Projections can be extremely useful tools for planners and decision-makers, in both
private and public sectors. However, projections should always be approached with some
skepticism and questioned seriously, especially in regard to the assumptions being made
and their sensitivity to changes in relevant parameters.
A. AGRICULTURAL PROJECTIONS
For the agricultural sector, we examined two models that make agricultural
projections. The first model was designed by the Center for Agricultural and Rural
Development (CARD). This model makes projections to 1990, 2000, and 2030 and is
primarily used to determine if the United States has adequate resources to provide for
future agricultural demands. The second model, designed by the Food and Agricultural
Policy Institute (FAPRI), makes projections for each year from 1985 to 1995. It is primarily
used for evaluating the Food Security Act of 1985 and subsequent proposed amendments.
A brief description of each model will be presented, followed by its results.
1. The CARD Model
The CARD model uses a technique known as linear programming to project cropland
required, acreage planted by crop, and crop production for the United States to the year
2030. The projections are determined by estimating the minimum costs of production
subject to a variety of constraints. The constraints are linear descriptions of production
functions, resource availability, and demand for food and fiber commodities. The demand
estimates are not determined by the model, but rather are supplied by the Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (domestic demand) and by the USD A Economic
Research Service (export demand). Several levels of export demand are used in the
different scenarios analyzed.
This model analyzes a variety of alternative scenarios based on different assump-
tions regarding productivity growth and export demand. The CARD model produces a
"most likely situation" scenario that is characterized by moderate growth in exports and
in productivity. Projections on available, planted, and idled acres are presented along with
projections for crop production and acreage for four major program crops: wheat, corn,
soybeans and cotton. Yields (which are assumed to grow at a predetermined rate), and
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conservation practices will also be discussed. The model gives short-term projections
(1990), medium-term projections (2000) and long-term projections (2030) for each variable.
The model specifies that 421.4 million acres of cropland are available for production
and that 967,000 acres will be converted from cropland to other uses every year. Since
there is great entropy in cropping systems, they constrain the model such that no more
than 5% of the land in a particular crop in a region may be removed from cultivation
annually. Assumptions regarding future productivity increases were taken from a
symposium of agricultural scientists. Assumed increases range from 0.75% annually for
alfalfa to 2.6% annually for soybeans. The model has also incorporated the constraints
imposed by the Conservation Reserve and Conservation Compliance requirements of the
1985 Food Security Act (FSA85).
a. Cropland
Of the 415 million acres of cropland available in 1982,309 million acres (74.5%) were
used and 105 million acres were idle. The CARD model projects that by 1990,410.2 million
acres of cropland will be available, and only 71.3% of these acres will be used. This change
represents a 1.25% decrease in cropland available for use and a 5.4% decrease in cropland
acreage actually used. From 1990 to 2000, available cropland is projected to decline an
additional 1.7%. However, cropland used should decline by 17.3% to 242 million acres. The
medium-term projection (1982-2000) is for a reduction in cropland available of 12.2 million
acres, or 677,000 acres per year and a reduction of 67.4 million acres actually utilized for
crop production, or 3.7 million acres per year.
TABLE 39: Cropland Available, Used and Idle
(millions of acres)
Cropland Status 1982 1990 2000 2030
Cropland Available 415 410 403 386
Cropland Used 309 292 242 276
Cropland Idle 105 117 161 110
%Idle 25.5 28.7 40.0 28.5
Source: USDA, 1987.
From 2000 to 2030, the model projects that available cropland will decline an
additional 17 million acres (an average of 566,000 acres per year). Cropland used, which
should decline 22.2% from 1982 to 2000, is projected to increase between 2000 and 2030.
This increase will be due mostly to growth in exports during that period. The percent of
cropland idle is projected to peak at 40% in 2000 and return to its 1990 level of about 28%
by 2030.
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b. Acreage and Output by Crop
In both the short-term (1990) and medium-term (2000), acreage devoted to four
major crops (wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton) is projected to decline (see Table 40 and 41).
From 2000 to 2030, acres devoted to all four crops should increase by 26% from 165.7
million acres to 208.8 million acres. On average that's an additional 1.4 million acres per
year. And although acreage devoted to these crops is projected to be higher in 2030 than
in 1982, total cropland actually utilized is projected to be lower. This implies a continuation
of the trend toward specialization and monoculture in American agriculture.
TABLE 40: Acreage by Crop
(millions of acres)
CROP 1982 1990 2000 2030
Wheat 58.5 57.3 51.5 73.0
Corn 62.0 61.9 57.3 57.9
Soybeans 66.3 53.6 50.1 70.2
Cotton 9.9 9.7 6.7 7.6
Total 196.9 182.7 165.7 208.8
Source: USDA, 1987.
For the short- and medium-term projections, output is expected to increase for
wheat, corn, and soybeans (see Table 41). Cotton output is projected to decrease in 1990
and then increase in 2000. The initial decrease is due to a fall in cotton yields in the late
1980s, which is the result of a projected shift in planted acres from higher yield areas to
lower yield areas. Wheat yields increase by 54% (3%/yr.), corn yields by 45.7% (2.5%/yr.)
and soybean yields by 73.8% (4.1%/yr.) from 1982 to 2000. Cotton yields are assumed to
remain constant from 1982 to 1990 and then increase by 58% (5.8%/yr) from 1990 to 2000.
TABLE 41: Output by Crop
CROP 1982 1990 2000 2030
Wheat (OOOs bu) 2,360,193 2,716,077 3,199,929 5,140,454
Corn (OOOsbu) 6,536,206 7,604,237 8,800,376 12,359,434
Soybeans (OOOs bu) 2,381,734 2,415,604 3,126,172 5,514,385
Cotton (OOOs bales) 11,965 11,700 12,800 16,000
Source: USDA, 1987.
c. Exports by Crop
The projections of changes in future needs for cropland and demand for grain
production rest heavily on assumptions concerning changes in export demand. Export
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projections, which were exogenously determined by the NIRAP (National Interregional
Agricultural Projections) model and provided by the USD A Economic Research Service are
only available for wheat, corn, soybeans, barley, oats, and sorghum. Since the latter three
are relatively inconsequential in terms of acres needed, projected export demand will only
be reported for the former three.
Wheat, corn, and soybean exports are all projected to increase (see Table 42).
However, the rate of increase varies among the periods. Total exports of these three
commodities are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1% from 1982 to 1990,
4.2% from 1990 to 2000, and 3.8% from 2000 to 2030.
TABLE 42: Exports by Crop
(millions of bushels)
CROP 1982 1990 2000 2030
Wheat 1,059,000 1,798,000 2,316,262 4,275,398
Corn 1,871,099 2,876,099 4,203,900 8,189,999
Soybeans 1.215.700 1.057.700 1.642.503 3.720.299
Total 4,595,799 5,731,799 8,162,766 16,185,696
Source: USDA, 1987.
The percent of total wheat production exported should increase from 65% in 1982
to 83% in 2030, and a similar trend is evident for corn and soybeans. Sixty-six percent of
corn output is expected to be exported in 2030 as compared to 28.6% in 1982. The percent
of soybean output exported should decline from 51% in 1982 to 44% in 1990, but then
increase to 67.5% in 2030. This suggests that American agriculture, in addition to
becoming more of a monoculture, will also become more dependent on world agricultural
conditions.
2. The FAPRI Model
The FAPRI model discussed here actually consists several models that examine five
crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice. Together, these models simulate most of the
U.S. agricultural sector. The FAPRI model makes projections for each year from 1985/86
to 1995/96. It currently employs the policy parameters associated with the 1985 Food
Security Act (FSA85). Beginning in 1990/91, when FSA85 expires, these parameters are
assumed to remain at their 1989/90 levels for the remainder of the projection period, which
ends in 1995/96. The FAPRI model presents general projections of base acreage, acres
planted, output, and Conservation Reserve Program enrollment for each crop. Although
CRP enrollment is mandated by FSA85, the FAPRI model determines from which crop the
acres will come and in what quantities. In addition to evaluating the FAPRI model, we will
highlight the major differences in cropping changes among the various production regions
by estimating the acres planted by region for all five crops in 1990/91.
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a. General Projections
The FAPRI model projects that the acres planted in wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton
and rice will decline through the 1989/90 crop year to a level of only 192 million acres
planted in those crops. This decrease amounts to 43 million fewer acres planted than in
1985/86 (31.2 million of those acres will be enrolled in the CRP). From 1989/90 to 1995/96,
the number of acres planted in these crops is projected to gradually increase to 223 million
acres.
By 1990/91, CRP enrollment in these five crops will peak at 40.4 million acres, and
will remain at that level through the remainder of the projection period. The target prices
and loan rates, which had fallenfrom 1985/86 to 1989/90, according to FSA85, are assumed
to remain constant at their 1989/90 level. Mandatory acreage requirements are assumed
to rise in the first half of the projection period and to decline in the second half.
TABLE 43: Projection of Acres Planted by Crop
(millions of acres)
Crop
WHEAT
CORN
SOYBEANS
COTTON
RICE
TOTAL
1985/86 1990/91
%CHG
86-91
1995/96
%CHG
91-96
75.1
83.3
63.1
10.7
63.0
64.8
65.0
11.2
235.2
206.6
-16.6
22.2
2.9
7.8
2.4
-12.2
73.2
67.5
67.5
11.9
2.8
222.8
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
TABLE 44: Projection of Output by Crop
(millions of bales, bushels)
Crop
WHEAT
CORN
SOYBEANS
COTTON
RICE
1985/86 1990/91
2425
8865
2099
6734
136
2195
7101
2118
6810
159
%CHG
86-91
-9.4
-19.8
.009
1.1
16.9
1995/96
2660
7824
2333
7604
176
%CHG
91-96
21.2
10.2
10.1
11.6
10.7
%CHG
86-96
16.2
4.2
3.8
6.0
7/7
7.8
-3.2
-19.0
6.9
11.3
10.3
-5.3
%CHG
86-96
9.6
-11.7
11.1
12.8
29.4
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
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b. Regional Crop Projections
To assign acres to each region, we took the following steps:
1. Calculated the decline in acres planted during the projection period, only
including those years before acres planted are projected to increase;
2. Calculated each region's share of the decline in planted acres from 1982
to 1986 for each crop;
3. Assumed that each region will continue to have to the sameshare of any
decreases in acres planted during the projection period as it had from 1982
to 1986;
4. Calculated each region's estimated acres planted using the above formula;
5. Assumed that the region's share of acres planted will remain constant at
the point in which planted acreage is projected to increase. We have no
other way to allocate increases in planted acreage, since there are no
recent data for such an event.
A region's relative share of any particular crop will be the same in 1995/96 as it was
in the last year in which planted acreage to that crop declined, due to the allocation method
we used. Between 1982 and 1986, total acreage planted declined in every region except the
Delta States, where it increased by 480%. While total acreage planted should continue to
decline in most regions, it appears highly unlikely that the rapid rate of growth in the Delta
States will continue. The Northeast, Appalachian, Southeast, Corn Belt, and Pacific
regions will lose in their relative shares of total acres planted in the five study crops, while
the Northern and Southern Plains, Mountain, Lake States, and Delta States regions will
gain in their relative share of acres planted.
TABLE 45: Actual and Estimated Acres Planted to Five Crops
1986 and 1990/91
(millions of acres)
Regions Acres Planted Acres Planted
1986 1990/91 % Change
Northeast 5.74 4.27 -25.6
Appalachian 12.19 10.42 -14.5
Southeast 7.38 4.64 -37.1
Delta States 13.76 13.88 +0.9
Corn Belt 71.44 61.21 -14.3
Lake States 23.20 17.36 -25.2
Northern Plains 46.61 42.65 -8.5
Southern Plains 23.03 22.90 -0.5
Mountain 12.99 11.49 -11.6
Pacific 6.48 5.46 -15.7
Total 222.84 194.31 -12.8
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
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1. Wheat Projections
The FAPRI model projects that during the short-term (1985/86 to 1990/91), acres
planted to wheat should decline by 26.5%, or 20 million acres. Of this acreage, 18.9 million
acres will be enrolled in the CRP. This decline is in addition to the 16% reduction in wheat
acreage from 1982 to 1986. However, total wheat production from 1985/86 to 1989/90
should decline by only 20%, implying that the marginal or less productive wheat acreage
will be retired or enrolled in the CRP first. From 1989/90 to the end of the projection period
in 1995/96, acres planted to wheat should increase by 16.2%, and production should
increase by 37.5%. The projected increase in acres planted will most likely be due to the
gradual reduction in the mandatory acreage reductions from 30% in 1989/90 to 15% in
1995/96, and to stabilization of the target price in 1990/91 (see Table 46).
TABLE 46: Actual and Estimated Regional Share of
Wheat Acres Planted: 1986 and 1990/91
(thousands of acres)
Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%)
1986 1986
Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%)
1990/91 1990/91
Northeast
Appalachia
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Total
635
1,626
1,615
1,340
4,490
3,875
27,485
16,200
12,207
5.400
72,343
0.9
2.3
2.2
1.9
6.2
5.4
38.1
21.5
15.6
100.0
627
426
345
0
2,190
3,736
23,385
14,805
10,454
3.398
59,366
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.0
3.6
6.3
39.4
25.0
17.6
100.0
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
If the trend from 1982 to 1986 continues and the FAPRI model's aggregate
projections are on target, the production of wheat will become more concentrated in the
major wheat-producing regions. In 1986, 75.2% of all acres planted to wheat were in the
Northern Plains, Southern Plains, and Mountain regions. By 1991 those three regions will
account for 82% of all acres planted to wheat. Almost all wheat (94% of acres planted) will
be grown west of the Mississippi River, with the Southern regions virtually ceasing
production of this crop.
2. Corn Projections
From 1985/86 to 1989/90, acres planted to corn are projected to decline by 24%, while
corn production is projected to decline by only 22%. Of the 19 million acre reduction in
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planted corn, only 5.2 million acres will be in the CRP. However, the mandatory acreage
set aside will increase from 10% to 20%, and paid diversion will increase from 0.0% to 15%.
Similar to wheat, acres planted to corn should increase after 1989/90 and continue to do
so throughout the projection period. From 1989/90 to 1995/96, planted acres are expected
to increase by 5.4%. In 1995/96, however, planted acres are projected to be 19% lower than
in 1985/86.
TABLE 47: Actual and Estimated Regional Share of
Corn Acres Planted: 1986 and 1990/91
(thousands of acres)
Regions
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Mountain
Pacific
Total
Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%)
1986 1986
Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%)
1990/91 1990/91
4,180
5,065
1,990
700
35,200
13,100
2,930
1,470
1,309
730
76,674
5.5
6.6
2.6
0.9
45.9
17.1
16.9
1.9
1.7
LQ.
100.0
2,654
4,673
1,794
2,322
24,100
6,866
12,717
2,147
578
335
58,186
4.5
8.0
3.1
3.9
41.4
11.8
21.8
3.7
0.9
100.0
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
The regional distribution of corn acreage is projected to change considerably by
1990/91. The Southern regions —Appalachia, the Southeast, and the Delta States regions
and the Plains regions should all gain in relative shares of corn acres planted. However,
the Corn Belt and Lake States, the two largest corn-producing regions in 1986, will lose
some their shares of acres planted. The results for the Delta States are probably
overestimated due to a 480% increase in acres planted from 1982 to 1986, which should not
be sustained. This distribution pattern is very different from wheat in that it appears that
corn production will become more decentralized.
3. Soybeans Projections
The projections for soybeans are similar to those for corn, with planted acres
decreasing by slightly over 6%. However, soybean production is projected to decline at a
faster rate. From 1985/86 to 1989/90, soybean production is projected to decline by 9%.
This suggests that planted acres will most likely decrease in the high yielding regions such
as the Corn Belt, Lake States, and Northern Plains.
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Soybean acreage enrolled in the CRP is projected to be 5.9 million acres by 1989/90,
which is greater than the decrease in planted acres. CRP acreage should rise to 8.1 million
acres in 1990/91 and should be maintained at that level until the end of the projection
period. After 1989/90, soybean acres planted will increase by 14.2%. Thus, in 1995/96,68
million acres will be planted to soybeans (5 million more than in 1985/86),and 8.1 million
soybean acres will be enrolled in the CRP. Thus the model projects 12.5 million more acres
in or retired from soybean production by 1996.
TABLE 48: Actual and Estimated Regional Share of
Soybean Acres Planted: 1986 and 1990/91
(Thousands of acres)
Regions
Northeast
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta States
Corn Belt
Lake States
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
Total
Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%)
1986 1986
930
5,080
3,100
7,950
31,500
6,230
6,195
495
61,480
1.5
8.3
5.0
12.9
51.2
10.1
10.1
0,8
100.0
Acres
Planted
1990/91
896
4,304
1,557
6,570
31,360
5,870
5,855
_Q
56,414
Regional
Shares (%)
1990/91
1.6
7.6
2.8
11.7
55.5
10.4
10.3
100.0
Source: USDA, 1986q; FAPRI, 1986.
The results we obtain for soybeans contradict the FAPRI model results. If the trends
of 1982 to 1986 continue, the Southern regions' relative share of acres planted will fall from
26.2% in 1986 to 22.1% in 1989/90. The Corn Belt will contain 55.5% of acres planted in
1989/90 as compared to 51.2% in 1986. (Note that in 1982, the Southern regions
(Appalachia, the Southeast and Delta States) had 35% of all acres planted to soybeans).
The model projects output to decline at a faster rate than acres planted, i.e., average yields
fall. This implies that high-yield land will be coming out of producti on. In 1986, the highest
yields were in the Corn Belt, Lake States and Northern Plains, whereas the lowest yields
were in the Southeast, Delta States and Southern Plains, indicating that acreage will be
coming out of the high-yield states relatively faster than in the low-yield states. That
would be a reversal of the trend experienced from 1982 to 1986, when 92.6% of the reduction
in soybeans acreage occurred in the three Southern regions.
5. Cotton Projections
Acres planted to cotton declined by 11% from 1982 to 1986 and are projected to
decline an additional 10.3% or 1.1 million acres from 1985/86 to 1986/87. This large one-
year decline is reversed in 1987/88. Planted acres slowly increase to 85/86 levels by 1988/
89. CRP acreage is 0.5 million acres in 1985/86 and 1.2 million acres in 1987/88. It remains
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at that level throughout the projection period. Participation in the cotton programs is
projected to peak in 1988/89 at 98%, then decline to 60% in 1995/96.
Projections are not made for cotton production, but rather for cotton yields, from
which we can make inferences about production. In the first year of the projection period,
output per acre falls sharply. This implies high-yield acreage will be taken out of
production. Cotton yields in the Mountain and Pacific regions are two to three times higher
than in other regions. Both of those regions, along with the Southern Plains, experienced
large reductions in acres planted from 1982 to 1986, whereas the other four producing
regions experienced increases in acres planted. It seems likely then that the reduction in
acres planted projected by the FAPRI model will occur in the Mountain and Pacific regions.
From 1986/87 to 1995/96, acres planted should increase by 20% and yields should increase
by 11.3%. This implies that either an increase in technology will occur or that the
additional acres planted will have higher yields than the original acres.
TABLE 49: Actual and Estimated Regional Share of
Cotton Acres Planted: 1986 and 1990/91
(thousands of acres)
Regions Acres Regional Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%) Planted Shares (%)
1986 1986 1990/91 1990/91
Appalachia 423 4.2 496 4.7
Southeast 677 6.7 678 6.5
Delta States 2,090 20.8 2,212 21.2
Corn Belt 178 1.8 179 1.7
Southern Plains 5,276 52.4 5,150 49.4
Mountain 568 3.9 439 4.2
Pacific 1,4.10 10.1 1,184 11.3
Source: USDA 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
For cotton, we are unable to make meaningful regional estimates past 1986X87,
because after that year planted acres are projected to increase. We are unable to make
regional estimates of acres planted when recent trends have all indicated decreases in
acres planted. The trend, however, appears to be away from the Southern Plains where
most of the acres planted were located. This trend makes intuitive sense as the Southern
Plains have the lowest yields of any major cotton-producing region. Interestingly,
Appalachia, the Southeast and Delta States had increases in acres planted from 1982 to
1986. Those increases were more than offset by large decreases in the Southern Plains,
Mountains and Pacific regions. It is possible that this trend will continue when acres
planted begin to increase in 1987/88.
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6. Rice Projections
The picture for rice is similar to that of cotton. Planted acreage is projected to
decrease in the first year of the projection period and then increase throughout the period.
Acres planted should fall 6.7% in that first year, then increase 7.7% from 1986/87 to 1995/
96 for a net increase of 2.4% in planted acres. This is a considerable change from the 1982-
1986 trend in which acres planted to rice declined by 27.3%. The reversal appears to be the
result of a 29.3% projected increase in exports from 1985/86 to 1986/86.
TABLE 50: Actual and Estimated Regional Share of
Rice Acres Planted: 1986 and 1990/91
(thousands of acres)
Regions Acres Regional Acres Regional
Planted Shares (%) Planted Shares (%)
1986 1986 1990/91 1990/91
Delta States 1,680 70.0 1,581 70.9
Corn Belt 68 2.8 66 2.9
Southern Plains 290 12.1 255 11.4
Pacific 363 15.1 328 14.7
Source: USDA, 1986c; FAPRI, 1986.
Each region's share of acres planted stays about the same, with the Delta States
gaining a little and the Southern Plains and the Pacific regions losing. The most
interesting point is that from 1982 to 1986, acres planted to rice fell by almost 900,000 acres
or -27.1%. The model projects this decline to reverse by 1987/88.
6. Summary
The FAPRI model projects the current decline in acres planted to continue at least
temporarily for each of the five study crops. The decline is projected to continue for one
additional year for cotton and rice, whereas decreases in acres planted in wheat, corn and
soybeans are projected to continue until 1990/91. Although acres planted are projected to
begin to increase, total acres planted in 1995/96 will still be 12 million acres below their
1985/86 level. In addition, the production of wheat and soybeans is projected to become
more centralized than in 1986. The Northern Plains, Southern Plains and Mountain
regions accounted for 75.2% of all acres planted to wheat in 1986. By 1990/91 they are
projected to account for 82% of acres planted to wheat. Similarly, the Corn Belt, which
accounted for 51.2% of all acres planted to soybeans in 1986, is projected to have 55.5% of
soybean acres in 1990/91 at the expense of the Southern regions. The distribution of corn
acres is projected to become less concentrated. The distribution of rice and cotton acres is
not projected to change substantially.
In absolute terms, however, the Corn Belt, Lake States and Northern Plains are
projected to have the greatest loss in acres planted. From 1986 to 1990/91, approximately
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28.5 million fewer acres are projected to be planted to the five study crops. Of this land,
10.2 million acres are projected to be in the Corn Belt. The Lake States are projected to
have 5.8 million fewer acres planted to the study crops and the Northern Plains 3.9 million
fewer acres.
It is important to note that although acres planted to these five crops are projected
to fall considerably over the next several years, these acres are not projected to leave the
agricultural sector for the most part. The base acreage of these five crops is projected to
fall from 260.6 million acres to 252.5 million acres. By 1995/96 base acreage is projected
to return to its 1985/85 level. Thus, the FAPRI model projects a short-run increase in the
amount of land leaving the sector. By 1995/96 the model projects that this acreage should
return to the agricultural sector. This result is due for the most part to FSA85 being built
into the model. What happens after 1989/90, however, will be determined, to a large extent,
by the 1990 Food Security Act.
B. FOREST PROJECTIONS
1. Introduction
The most recent comprehensive projections of U.S. forest resources were issued by
the USFS in 1980 in accordance with the requirements of the Forest and Rangeland
Renewable Resource Planning Act of 1974 (RPA). This act directs the Secretary of
Agriculture to prepare an assessment of renewable resources every 10 years. The forestry
assessment appears in An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States 1952 -
2030. subsequently referred to as the RPA report (USFS, 1982). It presents projections of
commercial forest area, timber supply, demand, and prices for 50 years through the year
2030, using 1950-1976 as a base period, and estimates of commercial forest inventory as of
1977. The Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) subsequently evaluated these
projections aspartof a study presented in Wood Use: U.S. Competitiveness and Technology.
(OTA, 1983). The subsequent sections of this chapter will summarize the Forest Service's
1980 projections (RPA 80), describe the methodology it employed, and present OTA's
critique of RPA 80 and their assessment of the future forestry situation.
2. RPA Projections
Tables 51 and 52 present the USFS projections of commercial forest area by
ownership class and section of the United States. It should be noted that the four sections
— North, South, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Coast — do not exactly correspond to an
aggregation of the ten-region taxonomy used elsewhere in this document. Their ownership
classes correspond exactly. The Forest Service North corresponds to our Northeast, Lake
States, Corn Belt and Northern Plains plus part of Appalachia (WV and KY). The South
corresponds to our Southeast, Delta and Southern Plains plus part of Appalachia (VA and
TN). The Rocky Mountain Sector roughly corresponds to our Mountain region. The Pacific
Coast Sector corresponds to our Pacific region plus part our Far Pacific (Alaska).
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TABLE 51: Area of Commercial Forestland in the United States,
by Ownership Class
(million acres)
1952 1977 1990 2000 2030
National Forest 94.7 88.7 81.3 80.4 78.8
Other Public 49.0 47.0 46.6 46.5 46.4
Forest Industry 59.5 68.7 70.9 72.2 73.1
Farm & Misc. Private 296.1 278.0 268.8 261.8 247.9
Total 499.3 482.4 467.6 460.9 446.2
Source: USFS, 1982.
TABLE 52: Area of U.S. Commercial Forestland, by Region
(million acres)
1952 1977 1990 2000 2030
North 168.8 166.1 164.2 162.5 158.5
South 192.1 188.0 182.5 179.7 158.5
Rocky Mountain 63.9 57.8 56.2 55.2 53.0
Pacific 74.5 70.5 64.7 63.5 61.8
Total 499.3 482.4 467.6 460.9 446.2
Source: USFS, 1982.
The Forest Service projects that commercial forest acreage will decline by 36.2
million acres by the year 2030. The greatest reduction is expected to occur in the South,
15.1 million acres. Nationwide most of the reduction, 30.1 million acres, is expected to come
from Farm and Miscellaneous Private ownerships. The Forest Service assumes that
conversion to cropland and residential development will be the primary cause of the loss
of this commercial forest acreage.
In the RPA report, the USFS presents two types of projections of future timber
supply and demand, the base-level forecast and the equilibrium forecast. The base-level
forecast assumes that timber prices will continue to rise at the same rates that prevailed
between 1950 and 1976, and projects timber supply and demand on the basis of these
assumed prices. Because projected timber demand rises faster than projected supply,
these forecasts show a gap between demand and supply. The equilibrium forecast projects
what is likely to happen when the competitive interaction of buyers and sellers determines
timber prices. Consequently, in the equilibrium forecasts, timber prices are allowed to rise
so as to equate demand and supply.
Table 53 presents a comparison of the base level and equilibrium forecasts of timber
demand, supply, imports and exports for the year 2030. The base-level projections have
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demand increasing faster than supply. Given historical price trends, the Forest Service
expects demand to increase to 22.7 billion cu. ft. by 2000 and to further increase to 28.3
billion cu. ft. in 2030, more than double the volume consumed in 1976. Much of the projected
increase in demand is for pulpwood products; consequently, pulpwood products account for
about 45% of total demand in 2030, in contrast to one-third of demand in 1976. The base-
level projections show large increases in demand for both softwoods and hardwoods. They
have demand for softwoods increasing by 82% by 2030 — from 10.3 billion cu. ft. in 1976 to
18.7 in 2030. Demand for hardwoods increases by 320 percent during this period from 3.0
to 9.6 billion cu. ft.
TABLE 53: Comparison of Base Level and Equilibrium Forecasts
(billions of cubic feet)
Actual Base Level Equilibrium
1986 2030 Level 2030
Timber Demand, Domestic 13.4 28.3 25.5
Timber Supply 15.2 24.4 25.5
Domestic 12.4 21.2 23.0
Imports 2.8 4.5 3.8
Exports 1.8 1.3 1-3
Demand minus Supply 0 3.9 0
Source: USFS, 1982.
The RPA report supply projections indicate that the domestic timber resources in
most regions can support larger timber harvests, even if commercial timberland owners
continue to behave as they have in the past with regard to prices and management of their
timber stands. Softwood supplies (harvested roundwood) are projected to increase by 29%
from 9.5 billion cu. ft. in 1976 to 12.3 billion cu. ft. in 2030. However, this is the net effect
of important differences among the softwood producing regions. Projected softwood
supplies in the Pacific Coast Section are expected to fall from 25.2 billion board feet in 1976
to 19.6 billion by 2030, with most of this decline expected to occur by 1990. In contrast,
sawtimber supplies in the South are expected to increase fromlS.O to 27.3 billion board feet
over the some period, mostly on farmer and other private ownerships. Softwood supplies
in the North and Rocky Mountain regions are also expected to increase but at a much
smaller rate.
Hardwood supplies are expected to increase 170% over the 1976-2030 period, from
3.3 billion cu. ft. to 8.7 billion. An increasing share of this supply is also expected to come
from the South.
These base-level projections show domestic demand outstripping supply particularly
for softwood products, and not being offset by imports. Consequently, prices are expected
to rise substantially, particularly for softwood stumpage (uncut standing timber), and
softwood products, to achieve equilibrium (equality between total demand and supply).
These projected softwood stumpage prices are presented in Table 54. Projected softwood
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prices increase in all regions, but not uniformly. In the South, stumpage prices, measured
in 1967 dollars net of inflation, rise at an annual rate of 2.5% between 1976 and 2030. This
is considerably above the rate in the Douglas fir region of the Pacific Northwest, where the
corresponding increase is 1.8%. But it is considerably below the rate of increase in other
regions, particularly the Rocky Mountain region, where prices are expected to rise at 3.8%
per annum.
TABLE 54: Softwood Stumpage Price Index, Past and Future
1952 1976 1990 2000 2030
Northeast 100.0 100.0 166.1 185.1 279.5
North Central 100.0 100.0 154.0 180.9 279.0
Southeast 57.8 138.9 229.6 280.6 526.8
South Central 57.8 138.9 230.6 281.6 524.7
Rocky Mountain 58.0 138.7 473.0 514.4 1,045.0
Pacific Northwest 80.6 113.8 300.5 330.6 603.1
Pacific Southwest 52.9 146.5 300.8 334.7 579.9
Source: USFS, 1982.
Since the projected base-level demand-supply relationship for hardwoods is much
more favorable, the RAP model does not project real increases in hardwood stumpage
prices during the 1980s and 1990s. Subsequently, hardwood prices are projected to
increase particularly in the South. The modelers warn that this situation could change
significantly if the demand for fuel wood increases. In such a situation resulting hardwood
price increases would be most pronounced in the North.
3. The RPA Methodology
The model used by the Forest Service to project the base-level timber resource
(supply) has two major parts — one simulates changes in the timber inventory and the
other estimates the timber harvest. These two parts are linked in following ways. Annual
harvest reduces the inventory, changing its composition and rate of growth; these changes
in inventory, in part, determine the subsequent volume and character of the next harvest.
The inventory projection model is built around a timber-stand simulator which depicts the
total national timber resource as a matrix of timber inventory by region or ownership
category. Each cell in the matrix is a stand of trees separated into 2-inch diameter classes.
The aggregate stand is divided into softwood and hardwood components. Inventory change
is simulated annually by changes in the number of trees in the stand table and the acreage
of commercial timberland. The potential increase in the number of trees in each diameter
class is based on tree growth-rates for each diameter class and on the rate at which small
trees graduate into the smallest merchantable diameter class. Tree growth and mortality
rates were derived from Forest Survey inventory plots located throughout the country, on
which measurements were taken in the late 1960s and the first half of the 1970s. Total
removals from the inventory are allocated among diameter classes on the basis of
estimated removal rates compiled from the same inventory plot data and special studies.
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The harvest part of the projection model describes the functional relationship
between annual timber harvest and such factors as stumpage prices, total growing-stock
inventory, the board foot/cubic foot ratio of the inventory, and growth as a percentage of
inventory. Separate roundwood supply equations were fitted to historical data, generally
1950 to 1974, by standard regression techniques for each projection component. A separate
roundwood supply equation was derived for softwoods and hardwoods in each major
ownership category and each timber supply region. Although there are variations among
these supply equations, the Forest Service found roundwood supplies to be quite inelastic
(unresponsive) with respect to stumpage price. (A 1% increase in stumpage prices brings
about only a 0.1 to 0.4% increase in roundwood supplies). Finally, projections of timber
supplies on public lands were not allowed to rise above harvest ceilings established in
existing management plans, (e.g., for the National Forests these are set in accordance with
the sustainable yield and multiple use requirements of the National Forest Management
Act of 1976).
Projections of the demand for roundwood are based on projections of the demand for
a wide range of wood products, including lumber, panels, fuelwood, pulp, and paper. The
future consumption for all products is linked to the level of general economic activity and
population expected over the projection period. The demand for many wood products is
estimated by indexing product use to the future GNP and to disposable personal income
projections made by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The demand for wood products used in housing (60% of the lumber, two-thirds of the
plywood and a substantial
portion of panel products in 1976) is forecast separately. Basic housing demand is
decomposed into demand created by new household formations, replacement of housing
destroyed or retired from the housing inventory, and maintenance of an inventory of
vacant units for sale, rent, or in other purposes such as a second home. Each of these
housing demand components is analyzed in terms of the number and types of units to be
built — single family, multi-family, and mobile homes. These in turn are then converted
to a bill of building materials.
Net household formation, considered the most important component of housing
demand, is projected based on assumed headship rates and the Bureau of Census medium
level projections of population by age group. Vacancies, the second major component of
housing demand, is divided between units for sale or rent, and second homes and other
units not available for sale or rent. The former is projected at a fixed 3.5% of housing units.
The latter is projected as a function of disposable personal income and the number of
persons in the middle-to-older age groups. The third major component of housing demand
is the housing replacement rate, which is projected based on an assumption that the
replacement rate will rise to 1.0% in the 1990s and early 2000s and their decline during the
2010-2030 period.
To generate the equilibrium level projections of price, supply, and demand levels,
the USFS employed regionally disaggregated economic simulation models for softwoods
and hardwoods (Timber Assessment Market Models). The softwood model consists of
demand equations for lumber and plywood in each of seven demand regions and
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corresponding supply equations for nine regions, including Canada. The costs of transporting
wood products from supply to demand regions were explicitly considered. Estimates of
pulpwood, miscellaneous products and fuelwood production in each supply region were
derived from the base-level projections of consumption and trade in these products. The
demand for stumpage in each supply region was derived from the demand for all of the
individual products (lumber, plywood, pulpwood, etc.). Supplies of stumpage consist of all
public harvests set by federal and state agency policies and private supplies that are
responsive to both prices and the inventory volumes available. Inventory volumes by
ownership and region were projected with the timber-stand table simulator discussed
previously. The hardwood model used is similar to the softwood model, although it
contains a less elaborate treatment of demand and less regional detail in the West.
Parameters in the models (such as demand and supply elasticities) were estimated
with statistical techniques using data for the 1950-1976 period. Consequently, responses
projected by the models are consistent with past market behavior and reflect probable
outcomes only if that behavior is replicated. The models use deflated prices so that the
price changes reported will be in addition to general inflationary price increases.
Each year of the projection period was simulated separately. In each year, the
several supply and demand equations interact in the separate market areas to determine
the market clearing prices and the quantities consumed and produced, for all products and
stumpage in all regions.
4. The Weakness of the RPA Model
Certain problems with the RPA model projections became apparent almost
immediately. The USFS was unable to predict the massive downturn in housing starts
that resulted from the high interest rates the Federal Reserve Bank used to deflate the
economy in 1979. This produced a recession in the housing market and economy as a whole
between 1980 and 1982. Consequently timber demand and harvests were far below
anticipated levels. In addition, residential fuel use has been significantly above the levels
projected in the RPA model. These projections had residential fuel use growing progressively
from an estimated 6 million cords in 1976 to 26 million cords in 2030. In 1983, the USFS
revised its forecast to reflect the new evidence of rapidly increasing fuelwood consumption.
They now project wood fuel use reaching almost 200 million cords by 2030 (OTA, 1983).
Another problem relates to the Forest Survey used by the USFS for information on
forest acreage, timber stocking and growth. It is done in 15-year intervals and is not
completed simultaneously in all states. Consequently, the RPA model used inventory and
growth data for certain states that were more than ten years out of date. New surveys
completed since the 1980 assessment have shown that the softwood supplies in the Pacific
Northwest, present and future, were underestimated, and that future softwood supplies
in the South, particularly on nonindustrial private forestland, may be significantly
understated (OTA, 1983).
In general the Office of Technology Assessment review found that the RPA model
overestimated future demand and underestimated future supply levels. It is OTA's view
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the USFS was too conservative in predicting technological change with regard to wood use,
timber harvesting and processing techniques and forest management, both in regard to
innovation and adoption of existing techniques. The Forest Service also tended to
underestimate the long-term responsiveness of forestland owners to price increases, which
would have the effect of understating increases in timber supplies. Conversely, higher
prices would tend to make the forest products industry more efficient in its use of the entire
tree and end-users more parsimonious in their use of all wood products, which in
combination would tend to reduce long-term demand. Similarly, consumer preferences
and life styles were assumed by the Forest Service to be static. These are quite likely to
change in the future, changing demand, in particular, by reducing the demand for the wood
products used in residential construction. As a consequence, OTA concludes that the
projected gaps between timber supply and demand and the real rates of price increase are
greatly overstated.
5. The OTA Assessment of Forest Resources
It is OTA's view that the availability of forestland will not become a serious problem
unless wood demand increases dramatically without adoption of technologies capable of
increasing timber supplies and improving efficiency of wood use (OTA, 1983). Nonetheless,
other problems exist. Continued growth in residential fuelwood consumption could
compete seriously with the forest products industry for commercial wood supplies.
Although conversion of forestland to cropland has been far less than projected, restocking
of forest acreage in the South has been lower than had been anticipated. Intensive timber
management is expensive, with the costs of planting alone often exceeding $100 per acre.
If economic opportunities nationally for timber management investments are exploited,
they could yield an additional 11 to 13 billion cu. ft. annually, but only at an investment cost
of $10 to $15 billion over the course of a tree crop cycle (OTA, 1983).
The greatest potential for increasing timber production through intensive
management appears to be in the South, followed by the Pacific Coast and the North (OTA,
1983). To the extent that crop surpluses continue, new opportunities are likely to arise to
establish managed plantations on unneeded cropland. In these instances restocking costs
considerably less than $100 per acre, but such land may be held in parcels too small to
capture necessary economies in management and harvesting. Also, most private
nonindustrial forestland is owned by nonfarmers, who often have little interest in timber
production (OTA, 1983).
Finally, although it is hard to draw a very clear picture of the future adequacy and
spatial distribution of the forest resources in this country, the fate of the Southern private
nonindustrial forestland appears to be most critical. The total acreage and productivity
of these lands seems hardest to predict, yet they appear to be the most essential forest
resource for insuring future adequacy to timber supplies.
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C. RANGE AND PASTURE PROJECTIONS
1. Introduction
Long-term projections for range and pasture land were developed by the U.S. Forest
Service in 1980 to fulfill requirements under the Forest and Rangeland Renewable
Resources Planning Act of 1974. In examining range and pasture resources, the USFS
focused entirely on the demand for and supply of range and pasture grazing. Grazing,
particularly by beef cattle, constitutes the largest use of these land resources. (The USFS
defined range to include forested range, and pasture to include cropland pasture.)
2. Projections
Demand and supply projections of grazing were made using the National Interregional
Agricultural Projections (NIRAP) System developed by the Economics, Statistics, and
Cooperatives Service of the USDA. The projections, which were made to 2030, used the
following assumptions:
1. Consumer demand for beef and veal are the major forms of livestock
demand for grazing land,
2. Beef and veal demand will increase in absolute terms due to U.S. population
growth and in relative terms because of an increase in per capita consumption,
3. Per capita consumption of livestock products will increase because per
capita disposable income will increase. The income elasticity for beef was
estimated to be 0.66 and was adjusted downward as income increased,
4. The feed/livestock ratio for beef (the ratio of the quantity of feed consumed
to the total live weight of the cow when slaughtered) will decline after 1985.
a. Demand for Range and Pasture
Based on the above assumptions, the USFS projected the demand for range grazing
to increase by 41% between 1976 and 2030, or from 213 million animal unit months (AUMs)
to 300 million AUMs. During the same period, the demand for pasture grazing was
projected to increase by 57%, from 763 million AUMs to 1.2 billion AUMs (USFS, 1980).
Both projections are based on a projected increase in per capita consumption of beef from
135 pounds in 1976 to 148 pounds in 2030.
To support these projected increases in demand for grazing, the USFS notes that
historical trends in grazing indicate a general increase. Beef cattle grazing is expected to
increase not only as a result of increases in per capita disposable income, but also because
consumer preferences for beef were expected to change from grain-fed, fattier beef to grass-
fed, leaner beef. Dairy cattle grazing should increase, despite a per capita decrease in dairy
product consumption, because of the overall U.S. population increase. Historical trends
further indicate an increase in sheep and horse populations.
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b. Supply of Range and Pasture
Using the same model, projections for the supply of range and pasture grazing were
made to 2030. To estimate future supplies, all alternative roughage sources — grazed
cropland, grazed crop residue, harvested roughage, pasture, and range—were considered.
In addition, the productivity associated with supplying these feeds were examined.
Given these alternative sources of roughage, the USFS projected grazed cropland
to be no greater than 84 million acres because of the increased demand for other uses of
cropland (USDA, 1980). The productivity of grazed cropland, however, is projected to
increase by 79% between 1976 and 2030 to provide 689 million AUMs. Grazing of crop
residues is expected to produce no more than 60 million AUMs by 2030. Pasture lands are
expected to produce 454 million AUMs by 2030, given productivity increases of 50% over
1976 productivity levels. Rangelands were projected to continue to supply the 1976 level
of 213 million AUMs by 2030, because productivity is not expected to increase. The
estimated biological potential of all rangeland is 566 million AUMs if intensive management
is applied. However, the high costs associated with intensive management and certain
institutional constraints associated with federal range preclude intensive management.
Given these projections, by 2030 range grazing supply will be 87 million AUMs lower
than demand. Supply of pasture grazing together with grazed cropland and grazed crop
residue will be equal to demand by 2030. Therefore, range and pasture supply will not meet
demand by 2030 and will result in increased beef and livestock prices. This increase in
prices should reduce total demand so that eventually an optimal level of grazing results.
3. Major Limitations
The major limitation of this model is that the projected beef demand does not track
with reality. While it is recognized that consumer preferences are changing toward leaner,
grass-fed beef, which would result in increased demand for range and pasture, substitution
to non-beef products—chicken, fish, and vegetables—has significantly reduced per capita
beef demand. Per capita consumption of beef and veal has decreased from 135 pounds in
1976 to 107 pounds in 1986. Beef analysts at USDA expect beef and veal consumption to
drop further to around 102 pounds by 1988 and stabilize at around 107 pounds from then
on. Based on these data, demand for range by 2030 would be 217 million AUMs, roughly
equal to the 1976 range supply level.
Additional supplies of grazing roughages should become available as cropland is
projected to go out of crops and into pasture that has no federal grazing restrictions. The
implications are that some rangeland may even be forced out of grazing, and therefore may
have an opportunity to improve in quality.
4. Conclusions
Contrary to the projections provided by this model, demand for beef has not
increased. Rather, the consumption has continued to decline. Demand for rangeland has
not intensified as a result. There does not appear to be any pressure for more acres of range
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or pasture or for improvements in the quality of existing range and pasture lands. If other
uses for some of these lands were identified, there would not be significant constraints
placed upon aggregate production of livestock. If other uses are not identified and the acres
of range and pasture remain constant, we anticipate less intensive management and use
of existing acreage.
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CHAPTER V
CONCLUSIONS
This report has taken a very broad brush approach to land use in the United States.
The authors certainly realize that there is considerably more complexity to the individual
land uses than presented in this report and that there are interactions between sectors that
are not delineated in detail. However, we feel that such an overview is an essential first
step in understanding the implications of changes in land use and the impacts of policies
and programs.
While specific policy and program recommendations may require more intensive
analysis, the information provided in this report does raise some interesting questions
about future land use. Previous generations of Americans have devised means to overcome
constraints of not having enough land or enough output of activities requiring land, while
the present and future generations will be required to deal with a surplus of land.
The United States has more than enough land to supply our desired outputs. The
question becomes how do we divert the surplus land into socially useful activities,
particulary those activities or resources over which EPA has some concern and authority.
The underlying emphasis of this background book and future activities is how this surplus
acreage could be diverted into activities which offer additional protection of environmental
amenities (e.g., water quality, wildlife habitat).
The Environmental Resources Branch is presently posing questions arising from
this analysis of land use that offer insight into opportunities for marginal changes in public
policies and programs that might provide improved environmental resources at little or no
additional cost to society.
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